Predictions for EB2 India

[GCdreamz]

Apart from no Spillover from EB1, South Korea used more EB2 Visas in 2016 resulting in more EB2 ROW visas usage and less allocation to EB2 India.

Using South Korea PERM Application to estimate EB2 Demand:
In 2017 fiscal year’s first half, South Korea applied for 2783 vs 4188 in 2016 i.e 1405 lesser petitions.

If same trend continues for last six months of 2017 it will result in 2810 (1405*2) more EB2 visas for India than in 2016 (3930).

PS: Here I am assuming all the PERM applications are for EB2 just for estimating.

With nearly 2810 extra visas + EB2 India’s 2016 allocation of 3930, we might get 6740 Visas in 2017. 6740 visas will help in clearing inventory till Apr 2009 or better date by Sep 2017 (based on inventory data).

Using 6700 as estimate for 2018 allocation, USCIS might set Date of Filing to Oct 2009 or better date on Oct 2017.

Also, Nearly 10K lesser PERM petitions in first half of 2017….is raising my expectation for more spillover from EB2/EB3 ROW to EB2/EB3 India.

Approved PERM certifications, in 2016’s First Six Months - 53,776
https://www.permchecker.com/10-01-2015/to/03-31-2016
Approved PERM certifications, in 2016’s Last Six Months – 59,529
https://www.permchecker.com/04-01-2016/to/09-30-2016

Approved PERM certifications, in 2017’s First Six Months – 44,208
https://www.permchecker.com/10-01-2016/to/03-31-2017

Note: Better dates possible if overall lesser PERM applications and South Korea’s PERM applications are divided between S Korea’s EB2 & EB3.

[Spectator]

GCdreamz,

I believe there are some quite important factors you have not taken into account in your calculation above.

a) There is a lag between PERM Certification and I-485 approval, even when the Final Action Date is Current.

At best there will be 6 months between the date the PERM is certified and when a subsequent I-485 is approved.

Taking a 6 month period, then I-485 approvals in FY2016 would have been from PERM certified in H2 FY2015 and H1 FY2016. Similarly, FY2017 I-485 approvals would be from PERM certified in H2 FY2016 and H1 FY2017.

PERM certifications for ROW/M/P would therefore be:

FY2016 approvals - 34,724 PERM certifications
FY2017 approvals - 35,796 PERM certifications

Although PERM certifications have slowed from the record number in FY2016, it does not appear that this will slow EB2-ROW/M/P approvals in FY2017.


b) EB2-ROW/M/P were retrogressed in August and September 2016

EB2-ROW/M/P were retrogressed for the last 2 months of FY2016. Therefore the number of I-485 approvals in FY2016 relate only to 10 months of demand.

For FY2017, those I-485 cases delayed by retrogression in FY2016 will be approved in FY2017, as well as the FY2017 demand itself. FY2017 needs to absorb 14 months of demand, when the ongoing demand has not reduced from FY2016. That makes it very likely that EB2-ROW/M/P will retrogress again in FY2017, since no extra visas will be available from EB1.

That appears to be the case, since CO has announced in the May 2017 VB that:


Employment Second Preference:

Worldwide, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and the Philippines can be expected to become oversubscribed no later than July. It is possible that there could be some forward movement of the established Final Action Date by September. The date for these countries will once again become CURRENT for October, the first month of fiscal year 2018.

The slowdown in PERM certifications seen to date in FY2017 might have some beneficial effect in FY2018, but this will be diminished if EB2-ROW/M/P retrogresses in FY2017, since I-485 approvals will then be shifted into FY2018.

[GCdreamz]

Thank you spec for the detailed explanation. July 2010 Priority Date is still very far....maybe Oct 2018 (FY 2019).

[GCdreamz]

***My thoughts***
Based on May 2017 Bulletin USCIS is estimating on issuing around 4000 EB2 visa for the current Fiscal year. I think 4000 visas issued for EB2 in 2016 is used for the estimate by USCIS.

Probability of Scenario 1 is highly likely than Scenario 2 and so on...
1. If there is no spillover and USCIS uses 4K as estimate for next Fiscal year 2018, we might see Oct 17 bulletin's Date of Filing going till June 2009only.
2. If there is spillover in FY 2017 and we get additional 4K, we might see July/Sep 17 bulletin's Date of Filing going till June 2009. July 17 bulletin (start of last QTR) will give clarity. (less chance)
3. If USCIS estimates issuing 8K visas in FY 2018, we might see Oct 17 bulletin's Date of Filing going till Jan 2010. Oct 17 bulletin will give clarity & estimate for 2018 visa allocation. (less chance)
4. If USCIS would like to have 20K I485 pending applications in EB2 category, even without spillover Oct 17 bulletin's Date of Filing might go till Aug 2010. (less chance)
5. If USCIS would like to have 20K I485 pending applications in EB2 category, with spillover in 2017 the Oct 17 bulletin's Date of Filing might go till Nov 2010. (very very less chance)

[iatiam]

***My thoughts***
Based on May 2017 Bulletin USCIS is estimating on issuing around 4000 EB2 visa for the current Fiscal year. I think 4000 visas issued for EB2 in 2016 is used for the estimate by USCIS.

Probability of Scenario 1 is highly likely than Scenario 2 and so on...
1. If there is no spillover and USCIS uses 4K as estimate for next Fiscal year 2018, we might see Oct 17 bulletin's Date of Filing going till June 2009only.
2. If there is spillover in FY 2017 and we get additional 4K, we might see July/Sep 17 bulletin's Date of Filing going till June 2009. July 17 bulletin (start of last QTR) will give clarity. (less chance)
3. If USCIS estimates issuing 8K visas in FY 2018, we might see Oct 17 bulletin's Date of Filing going till Jan 2010. Oct 17 bulletin will give clarity & estimate for 2018 visa allocation. (less chance)
4. If USCIS would like to have 20K I485 pending applications in EB2 category, even without spillover Oct 17 bulletin's Date of Filing might go till Aug 2010. (less chance)
5. If USCIS would like to have 20K I485 pending applications in EB2 category, with spillover in 2017 the Oct 17 bulletin's Date of Filing might go till Nov 2010. (very very less chance)

Is this years quota being used? Where does the 4,000 number come from?

Iatiam

[GCdreamz]

Last year EB2 India received approx 4K visas. Also, I485 applications pending before Feb2009 - approx 4K.

[GCdreamz]

I am predicting EB3I to catch up to EB2I before the end of FY18. Predictions published in February bulletin and I485 inventory are basis for my analysis.

[iatiam]

I am predicting EB3I to catch up to EB2I before the end of FY18. Predictions published in February bulletin and I485 inventory are basis for my analysis.
This seems like overly optimistic. Generally everyone seems to agree that EB3I will open up to inventory collection mode. The more CO waits, more the chances that EB3I visas are wasted. So the dates will move beyond July 2007 in six months. How long and how far beyond that is any body's guess. Perhaps Spec can throw in some light here.

I tend to believe that EB3I population beyond July 2007 might be very little. Prior to July 2007, the system was different - PERM was new and processing times varied from one state to other. Generally it didn't matter whether you are in EB3 or EB2. But the July 2007 fiasco changed all that. People in EB2I got GCs faster. EB3I got languished for more than a decade as we see here. It would be either too difficult or too crazy for some one to be doing their PERM in EB3I after 2007.

I am no expert and have no data to back it up. This is only based on personal experience and anecdotal evidence. Comments welcome

Iatiam

[GCdreamz]

This seems like overly optimistic. Generally everyone seems to agree that EB3I will open up to inventory collection mode. The more CO waits, more the chances that EB3****isas are wasted. So the dates will move beyond July 2007 in six months. How long and how far beyond that is any body's guess. Perhaps Spec can throw in some light here.

I tend to believe that EB3I population beyond July 2007 might be very little. Prior to July 2007, the system was different - PERM was new and processing times varied from one state to other. Generally it didn't matter whether you are in EB3 or EB2. But the July 2007 fiasco changed all that. People in EB2I got GCs faster. EB3I got languished for more than a decade as we see here. It would be either too difficult or too crazy for some one to be doing their PERM in EB3I after 2007.

I am no expert and have no data to back it up. This is only based on personal experience and anecdotal evidence. Comments welcome

Iatiam

I485s Pending in EB3I category, went down by nearly 7K in last two years. Here is the data:
As of Oct 2015 were nearly 20K
As of Oct 2016 were nearly 12.5K and
As of Oct 2016 were nearly 6K

So assuming 7K EB3I visas are issued in current FY plus hoping duplicate application between spouses plus spillover etc, I think there is a chance for EB3I to catch up unless EB2I moves faster than initially expected (per Date of Filing).

Just my guess work.....I think at some point EB2I & EB3I will move in close/same date range....

[iatiam]

I485s Pending in EB3I category, went down by nearly 7K in last two years. Here is the data:
As of Oct 2015 were nearly 20K
As of Oct 2016 were nearly 12.5K and
As of Oct 2016 were nearly 6K

So assuming 7K EB3****isas are issued in current FY plus hoping duplicate application between spouses plus spillover etc, I think there is a chance for EB3I to catch up unless EB2I moves faster than initially expected (per Date of Filing).

Just my guess work.....I think at some point EB2I & EB3I will move in close/same date range....

You might be correct. But the reduction is primarily due to porting than SO. If the trend continues, certainly EB3I will catchup with EB2I but when will it happen is any body's guess.

Also, keep in mind that once they catchup, people will port from EB2I to EB3I which would slow down the further growth. This calendar year we are going to see a very interesting dynamic play-out. EB3I will come out of woods for sure, but it's momentum may very well be stalled sooner than later.

Iatiam

[GCdreamz]

You might be correct. But the reduction is primarily due to porting than SO. If the trend continues, certainly EB3I will catchup with EB2I but when will it happen is any body's guess.

Also, keep in mind that once they catchup, people will port from EB2I to EB3I which would slow down the further growth. This calendar year we are going to see a very interesting dynamic play-out. EB3I will come out of woods for sure, but it's momentum may very well be stalled sooner than later.

Iatiam


Based on Spec's numbers in other thread, looks like there was SO for EB3I and there was porting too. Our thoughts are similar on EB3I catching up to EB2I and then EB2I to EB3I downgrade, etc. I am expecting & hoping catchup/downgrade to happen towards the end of FY18.

Also, happy to see no INFY/CTS/Wipro in the top PERM filings in the first quarter compared to FY 17's first quarter. Hope there wont be misallocation from now and EB3I gets 10K plus visas this Fiscal year and next year which will clear present inventory.
https://www.permchecker.com/10-01-2017/to/01-19-2018
https://www.permchecker.com/10-01-2016/to/01-19-2017