EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[qesehmk]

Latest Updates




Jun 25 - Rumor about FB china spare visas for EB-C in 2014 (Original source Click HERE (http://www.mitbbs.com/ym_article/LiuLaw/31076497.html))

The rumor doesn't have sufficient information and there is probably some lost in translation in the rumor.

First, it talks about several hundred visas when FB china last year had almost 4K underutilized visas in FB.
Second, it talks about rollover in same year - which the law doesn't really allow. The law allows rollover of FB to EB only during next year.


Given that we suspect that EB China may indeed be eligible for extra visa to ensure 7% usage across FB and EB .... BUT ...... those visa will have to come from the SOFAD thus effectively reducing visas available to backlogged countries (India in EB2 and ROW in EB3).
Given the lack of specific information the best that we can say is that the impact will be between 0 and 2K visas for EB2 and EB3. That should be approximately 1-2 months for each EB2I and EB3ROW.
From EB2C perspective that would translate to a date advance between 0-9 months and same with EB3C.


Jun 23, 2014 – Forecast Update (Trackitt data and DHS annual reports)



Overall we don’t see a need to change our current forecast.
EB1 is 1/3rd more compared to prior year. EB2ROW is 60% down compared to prior year. And EB3ROW is 50% more compared to prior year.
We do see a caution in EB1 usage. EB1 usage will most likely exceed category quota and may end up hurting EB2.
Last year Visa Office used 5-6K more visas than were available. The tool doesn’t depend on that. So if those 5-6K are available then tools prediction should be improved by approximately 3 months.




Jun 10, 2014 – Updated Visa Bulletin commentary.
May 13, 2014 (Trackitt, 485 Inventory, 485 Performance Data Update) - Observed 60% reduction in YTD EB2ROW approvals. 50% more YTD approvals in EB1C & 35% more YTD approvals in EB3ROW. Thus we expect EB1 to NOT provide any spillover and EB2ROW to provide all the spillover. EB1 may allow passing of some of the EB4/5 spillover to EB2.
Mar 31, 2014 (Trackitt Update) - Observed approx. 50% YoY more demand for EB1C-I, 75% YoY less demand for EB2 ROW and 25% more YoY demand for EB3ROW. Respectively they will result in less SOFAD for EB2I, much more SOFAD for EB2I and almost no SOFAD for EB3I.
Mar 3, 2013 (Labor data update) – Latest PERM data confirms 33% drop in PERM approvals compared to last year.
Mar 3, 2014 (485 Inventory Update) – 485 inventory data for Q1 2014 is not quite conclusive. We don’t see anything that will affect our current model either –vely or +vely.


2014 Summary Trend Prediction

EB2I dates will see net forward movement in 2014 but will experience initial retrogression similar to last year. The dates should move in Q3 of USCIS year i.e. between Jul-Sep 2014. Overall EB quota is less than prior year (150K vs 158K). And secondly, significant backlog exists prior to Jun 2008 which is where dates ended in Sep 2013. However an overall slowdown in PERM approvals as well as overall slowdown in 140 as well as 485 approvals could be helpful in reducing backlog.


General Prediction

Tailwinds (+ve things)
· Overall economy and resulting job environment continues to dampen overall demand across the board. (This is now confirmed by labor reports that show almost 36% drop in PERM certifications across the board.)
· 10K extra visas compared to annual quota (150K vs 140K)
· Almost zero backlog in EB4 and Moderate in EB5

Immigration is like a balloon, you press it in one place and it pops out from other side.

We are seeing similar thing in immigration where since 2007, there has been a trend in EB3 candidates porting to EB2. Since 2007, the rules of spillover were changed to horizontal spillover, EB2 stopped providing any spillover to EB3. Thus EB3 backlog became quite acute.

Now portings are happening from EB3->EB2 in such a way that for retrogressed countries like India, the dates will remain retrogressed for much of the year except at the end of the year when the dates will move based on how many visas are left from other categories.

Luckily there are still other categories that are providing extra visas. Those categories are EB4, 5, EB1, and sometimes EB2ROW. So people shouldn't be worried about temporary retrogression. Generally every year these categories ensure that EB2IC dates move forward.

This year i.e. 2014, there will be 10K extra visas from FB that will be used in EB category. Last year that number was 18K. So in 2014, the movement of EB2I should be somewhat less than last year - if everything else being equal. However the fact that PERM, 140 and 485 processing are all slowed down. PERMs are down 33% compared to last year and 67% down compared to the one before that. This will certainly act favorably for backlogged countries.

The severe retrogression in EB3 will continue albeit the category will keep moving forward because EB3ROW hasn’t been able to generate enough demand. So although the model shows modest movement for EB3I we do think the real movement for EB3I will be 6-8 months. At the current trend, EB3ROW might get current in a year or two.


The effect of CP/NVC data:

The latest NVC data shows 9K EB2I CP applications in the pipeline. This data is in addition to the 485 applications as well as any possible upgrades from EB3I->EB2I. We estimate that around half of those CP cases will be pre 2009 increasing real pre 2009 backlog to about 16-17K. If one adds approximate 5K EB3->EB2 porting then the pre 2009 backlog comes to around 21-22K. That is quite a large number to overcome for dates to move into 2009. But with the tailwinds mentioned above the dates could very well move into Q1 2009.

2013 Visa Consumption Update

In January 2014 we saw 2013 Visa Statistics come out. A few more interesting observations from the 2013 visa allocations: (In the order of importance and implications)

1. Overall consumption was 3K more than initial visa allocation of 158K
2. EB2 consumption was 63K i.e. approx 18K more than quota. Thus 18K came from other categories.
3. EB2ROW consumption was 36K. That is huge. Plus EB2P received 4.4K and EB2-SKorea received 7K. This doesn't bode well for 2014
4. EB3 overall consumption was 41K which was 3K less than its quota. However EB3I received 7K and inventory reduced by 12K. Thus 5K of EB3->2 porting for India was confirmed.
5. EB1 India ate up almost 10K while EB1 china consumed 6K. thus showing healthy demand for EB1 in 2014.
6. EB5 china consumed 6K thus showing healthy future demand for EB5

Overall it is safe to say without the 18K extra visas EB2I would have been crushed under all this demand and there would be very little movement. Fundamentally there are several -ve trends going on here.

1. EB1 and 5 have healthy demand.
2. EB2ROW has very strong demand - probably it includes EB3 porting.
3. EB2I has almost 5K of EB3I porting.

EB3ROW as well as EB3I has solid good trends going on. Basically EB3ROW should become current in couple of years from now - perhaps as soon as next.

[veni001]

Guesstimated Predictions for FY2013!

EB1:
10/4/12 - pending Inventory ~14k
Estimated new demand ~18K
Expected Spillover ~8K

EB2ROW-M-P:
10/4/12 - pending Inventory ~18k
Estimated new demand ~17K
Expected Spillover ~0

EB4:
Expected Spillover ~0

EB5:
10/4/12 - pending Inventory ~20
About 4K I-526 pending with USCIS
Expected Spillover ~4-5K

EB2IC annual allocation: 5.6K

Total Estimated SOFAD : ~18K

Spillover is not expected until Q4 of FY2013 and EB2IC should end around April-June 2008


Update: 02/17/13

FB -->EB : ~18K

With the addition of FB Spillover FY2013-EB2IC should end around Oct-Dec 2008.

[Spectator]

As always, please take the following with a pinch of salt. It is a best effort, but the variables mean it can never be truly accurate and has wide error margins.

FY2014

EB2

Slow PERM processing by DOL means that there should be significant Fall Across within EB2 from ROW. There is a slight danger this could be reduced because PERM processing speeds have increased, but the acceleration appears to have started a little too late to affect FY2014 significantly.

Currently, EB1 approvals appear to have increased, but the data supporting this is not entirely reliable, so the scale of the increase is uncertain. Update: The approval rate for EB1 has now slowed.

I expect reasonable Fall Up to EB1 from EB4 and probably no Fall Up to EB1 from EB5. Ultimately, I expect this to Fall Down to EB2, although there is a slightly greater risk than normal of EB1 using some of the Fall Up if demand continues through the second half of the FY.

Based on the latest (uncorroborated) information from CO, around 15k visas may be available for EB2-I in Q4 FY2014.

Using the USCIS inventory figures, a 5% denial rate and 20% contingency, that would be enough to move to a Cut Off Date of 01JUN09.

3k cases would be left unapproved in FY2014 within the Cut Off Date.

If approved in October 2014, the initial allocation for EB2-I in FY2015 would be used. Unless there are extra FB visas available in FY2015, retrogression in November 2014 would be required.

The above does not include any extra porting cases that are not currently in the EB2 Inventory which could be approved in FY2014. A large number of those “appearing” in the demand seen by CO would be a headwind to achieving the 01JUN09 Cut Off Date. In addition, it would increase the number of cases falling through to FY2015.

Using the same assumptions as above, around 12k further cases remain after 01JUN09 to the latest Cut Off Date of 01MAY10 that EB2-I has ever reached.

A total of at least 3k + 12k + further porting cases/new applications (less contingency) would be required to exhaust the current known backlog in FY2015. At present, that seems unlikely.

Update:- Taken into account latest comments attributed to CO on June 9, 2014.

EB3

I expect demand from EB3-ROW to be sufficient to use their entire allocation in FY2014. That might be around 27k, once extra use by Philippines is accounted for. I expect EB3-C and EB3-M to also have sufficient demand within the WW Cut Off Date to reach their allocations.

UPDATE:- EB3-ROW/M have now retrogressed in the June 2014 VB and EB3-C has retrogressed by 6 years. That confirms that EB3-ROW/M will use their allocation and that EB3-C has already used their entire allocation for the FY.

Unfortunately for EB3-I, this means there will be no repeat of the Fall Across seen in FY2013. Numbers for EB3-I appear to be quite high when comparing the available allocation to the numbers remaining for a PD in 2003. EB3-I appear to have used significant numbers from their allocation in October/November 2013. It may be difficult for EB3-I to move beyond sometime in November 2003 at best by the end of FY2014.

Because of the overall 7% limit and some depression of EB2-Philippines numbers, EB3-Philippines might expect around 7k approvals for FY2014. How far this might move the Cut Off Date is more difficult to assess. They are now moving beyond July 2007 and and the historically large % of CP cases makes it very difficult to predict. Originally, some data suggested demand was very high for this period, but the intervening years may have led to a high level of abandonment from candidates forced to remain in the Philippines and for whom the job offer no longer exists. In addition CO may move the dates far further than necessary to build up a new Inventory. The high % of CP cases for Philippines may cause problems in doing this he has not had to deal with before.



FY2015

The following is even more speculative. Consider it as thinking out load. Please do not read further if you are of a nervous disposition or react badly to potential bad news

From such a long way out, the prospects for FY2015 for EB2-I look relatively bleak.

The announcements by CO of retrogression for FB2A-Mexico and likely retrogression of the rest of F2A makes it increasingly likely that there will be no spare FB visas available to EB in FY2015. That would leave EB with the base allocation of 140k. The following comments are based on that happening.

UPDATE:- Both F2A WW and F2A Mexico retrogressed in the June 2014 VB.

The large amount of Fall Across from EB2-ROW this year should be seen as a bonus, but because DOL have increased their processing speed, there is likely to be an equal and opposite reaction in FY2015 if that continues.

EB2-ROW in FY2015 are likely to have a demand that at least equals their allocation. There is a real danger that their demand will exceed it and they would also require some of the Fall Down from EB1.

If EB1 approval rates have increased and are sustained into FY2015, then EB1 might exceed their allocation in FY2015. That would require them to use some of the Fall Up from EB4/EB5.

With a lower allocation, EB5 would have an increased chance of using their entire allocation.

The worst case scenario is that EB1/EB2-ROW require all Fall Up generated by EB4/EB5. That would leave no spare spillover visas available to EB2-I and only the base 2.8k would be available. Porting cases would consume those and EB2-I would end FY2015 in a more retrogressed state.

In a slightly better scenario, fairly limited spillover to EB2-I would be available, but it would only allow a few months further progress to the Cut Off Dates from where they end FY2014.

If there is little or no spillover expected in FY2015, then CO will have to consider retrogressing EB2-I in October 2014 (or November at the latest). If he does not do so, all available visas could be consumed and EB2-I would have to be retrogressed very severely or made Unavailable for the remainder of the year.

Please remember, this is predicated on no extra FB visas and much higher EB2-ROW demand. This scenario may not happen.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I think we should not fret over the last VB for EB2-I. It was determined by 1350 cases before 2007. This is largely due to EB2 – I being unavailable so these cases did not get approved last year itself.

The bulletin itself is driven by the 240 – 250 monthly allocation so the dates have been set almost symbolically to have just this number of individuals eligible. Notice that China has is far ahead because there is hardly any porting for China. EB2-I fundamentals are still ok if not great largely due to flash approvals which definitely ate into EB2 ROW in feb – mar so essentially this year is payback time. Despite all that 15K SOFAD is likely.

There is an interesting pattern on EB2 ROW approvals this year which may explain why there was no advancement in EB2 I/C dates. This is from Trackitt EB2 ROW approvals primary only.
Oct 2012 to May 2013 - 754
Oct 2011 to May 2012 - 588
This represents 28% extra consumption.
Now we do know that last year due to high volume approvals for EB2 I/C in feb / mar 2012 these were far more than the numbers could support so ROW cases approval did move to the next year.
So we should filter out Oct and Nov 2012 and then compare over the corresponding periods.
Dec 2012 to May 2013 - 527
Dec 2011 to May 2013 - 489
If we compare these time durations then the numbers are comparable.
EB2 Mexico and Philippines normally do not consume much in EB2, EB2 I/C would take their share. Easily we can see that ROW would take 8- 10K extra visa this year when compared to last year.
With this most likely Eb2 Row would not give any SOFAD, however the numbers do indicate that it would not take any SOFAD away either that would come from EB5 / EB1 including 12K out of 18K extra FB spillover. So even if EB1 does not give anything there is still 12K to apply. But seems like extreme caution is being exercised to use that. Overall EB2 would be SOFAD neutral this year. .

[nishant2200]

FY 2013

EB2 India : Dec 2007 to Mid 2008 range

[bookworm]

Here's to hoping that all the great folks on the blog get their GC in 2013!!

[Pedro Gonzales]

Here's to hoping that all the great folks on the blog get their GC in 2013!!

BW, I believe all the great folks from this blog got their GCs in 2012 (Q, Spec, Veni, TK, N2.2K). But here's to hoping the great many folk out here do get it in 2013. :)

[nishant2200]

BW, I believe all the great folks from this blog got their GCs in 2012 (Q, Spec, Veni, TK, N2.2K). But here's to hoping the great many folk out here do get it in 2013. :)
Yes Pedro, miracles absolutely do happen in CO's world. If having a stable job, one should sit it out and just get done with it.

[GCKnowHow]

Wish everyone a happy new year (uscis calendar) :) Hope I would get my gc this year. Before I complete 5 years mark.

[june2010]

I have been a silent follower of this great forum for more than a year now and i am constantly amazed by the depth of knowledge and analysis provided here. Needless to say that I thank each and every one of you who have contributed and helped others to get better understanding of this long process. Having said that, where do people think the PD will swing to in 2013 for EB2I ? Is there a strong possibility that it crosses mid-2010 or later in order to build up the inventory again?

[imdeng]

Hi Friends,

Just saying a big Hello to all of you for the new thread. I have not been around much lately and when I did venture this side, I mostly read silently. Expecting to be back on a more regular basis going forward.

Glad to see that all the regulars (Q, S, T...) are around and contributing, as always.

Update on my situation: I am in the EAD/AP world (and thankful to be here). Before the current slowdown, I had expected my GC to be done before the end of FY2014 - but I am not so sure now. This actually puts a spanner in the works for me since my current contract is up to the end of 2014 academic year and it is likely that it will not be renewed. I guess I will be looking around for info on how to change jobs and keep GC process alive while living in a EAD/AP universe. Anybody has any experience/thoughts?

Best,
imdeng

[imdeng]

I doubt that CO will face a need to build inventory in FY2013 given the number of pending 485s. I guess if a good number of those are used up in FY2013, then inventory building might become an option some time in FY2014 - not before that.


I have been a silent follower of this great forum for more than a year now and i am constantly amazed by the depth of knowledge and analysis provided here. Needless to say that I thank each and every one of you who have contributed and helped others to get better understanding of this long process. Having said that, where do people think the PD will swing to in 2013 for EB2I ? Is there a strong possibility that it crosses mid-2010 or later in order to build up the inventory again?

[Eb2_Dec07]

Guys , any predictions when the first swing might happen this fiscal for EB2-I.

And how far the first sweep might be. On another note , if there are qualifying EB3 to Eb2 porters with PD between 2006 thr 2007 , don't they have to wait a little longer until they get their 485 application in to the stream and wait for the process of pre-adjudication and RFEs etc etc ....What I'm trying to point out is if there were to be a big swing in to end of 2007 or 2008 then pre-adjudicated cases based on PD should get an immediate shot at getting the GC correct . Please correct me if I'm missing anything.

[veni001]

Guys , any predictions when the first swing might happen this fiscal for EB2-I.

And how far the first sweep might be. On another note , if there are qualifying EB3 to Eb2 porters with PD between 2006 thr 2007 , don't they have to wait a little longer until they get their 485 application in to the stream and wait for the process of pre-adjudication and RFEs etc etc ....What I'm trying to point out is if there were to be a big swing in to end of 2007 or 2008 then pre-adjudicated cases based on PD should get an immediate shot at getting the GC correct . Please correct me if I'm missing anything.

Eb2_Dec07,

We have to see EB2ROW coming back to "C" first and the inventory date till end of last FY (if and when available) will shed some light on the probabilities.

This will be another interesting year!

[imdeng]

For sure. We have already had three very good years from EB2IC perspective. I guess we are due for a less-than-stellar year now. But, I agree with Q that we will catch up to the long term average for EB2IC (4 years for EAD, 5 for GC).

Also - we are passing through the densest period for EB2I. Things should ease up a bit once we cross the mid-2008 point (until we hit the dense-again period of 2010 PDs).


This will be another interesting year!

[justvisiting]

So, USCIS was approving EB1 as of 9/28/2012 (according to trackitt). We also never saw a formal statement from DOS announcing that numbers have been exausted.

I have a suspicion Mr. C.O. overreacted to USCIS's hyper-productivity in March, USCIS slowed down EB1s, and regretfully, visa numbers were wasted.

[gc_soon]

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/02/key-immigration-programs-extended/
Does this mean, there will be no EB4 and EB5 for the next 2 years?

[Spectator]

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/02/key-immigration-programs-extended/
Does this mean, there will be no EB4 and EB5 for the next 2 years?The opposite really.

A subset of both EB4 and EB5 was due to sunset on September 30, 2012. This was reflected in the October VB.


D. SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF TWO EMPLOYMENT VISA CATEGORIES

Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR): Pursuant to Section 568(a)(1) of Public Law 111-83, the non-minister special immigrant program expires on September 30, 2012. No SR visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2012. Visas issued prior to this date will only be issued with a validity date of September 30, 2012, and all individuals seeking admission as a non-minister special immigrant must be admitted (repeat, admitted) into the U.S. no later than midnight September 30, 2012.

Employment Fifth Preference Pilot Categories (I5 and R5): Section 548 of Public Law 111-83 extended this immigrant investor pilot program through September 30, 2012. The I5 and R5 visas may be issued until close of business on September 30, 2012, and may be issued for the full validity period. No I5 or R5 visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2012.

The cut-off dates for the categories mentioned above have been listed as “Unavailable” for October. Congress is currently considering an extension of the SR, I5 and R5 visa categories, but there is no certainty when such legislative action may occur. If there is legislative action extending one or both of these categories for FY-2013, those cut-off dates would immediately become “Current” for October.

Had the legislation not been extended, there would have been fewer applicants in EB4 and probably in EB5 as well because many use projects set up though the Pilot Program.

Since the legislation has now been extended until September 30, 2015, these Categories will now be Current in the October VB and the expected numbers will be unchanged.

[Spectator]

They can be found here (https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do)

As of August 31, 2012 the processing dates for EB I-485 were:

NSC - 4 months
TSC - 06 March 2012

Hopefuly that means when the new Inventory for October is released, TSC will have dealt with all cases until early April.

That should mean relatively few cases will not be in the Inventory and also most cases should be preadjudicated.

[imdeng]

Spec - I am not sure about everybody being pre-adj. I mentioned in a different thread that I called to figure out whether I am pre-adj and the lady would not commit on my case and kept repeating "Alll AOS cases are pre-adjudicated".

Specifically for my case, my status is still "Acceptance" and I have not received an RFE for my BC and Flu - which if they looked at my papers - they should be asking for. Just one data point here - but it puts in doubt whether they are really pre-adj all the cases in the 4 months timeframe for NSC. My RD/ND is early Feb in NSC.

PS> Thank you for your tireless work here Spec. May be we don't say this enough - certainly not enough to do any justice to your time, effort and openness to help one and all - so again - Thank You!


They can be found here (https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do)

As of August 31, 2012 the processing dates for EB I-485 were:

NSC - 4 months
TSC - 06 March 2012

Hopefuly that means when the new Inventory for October is released, TSC will have dealt with all cases until early April.

That should mean relatively few cases will not be in the Inventory and also most cases should be preadjudicated.

[Spectator]

Spec - I am not sure about everybody being pre-adj. I mentioned in a different thread that I called to figure out whether I am pre-adj and the lady would not commit on my case and kept repeating "Alll AOS cases are pre-adjudicated".

Specifically for my case, my status is still "Acceptance" and I have not received an RFE for my BC and Flu - which if they looked at my papers - they should be asking for. Just one data point here - but it puts in doubt whether they are really pre-adj all the cases in the 4 months timeframe for NSC. My RD/ND is early Feb in NSC.

PS> Thank you for your tireless work here Spec. May be we don't say this enough - certainly not enough to do any justice to your time, effort and openness to help one and all - so again - Thank You!imdeng,

Thanks for the kind words.

I hear what you say about pre-adjudication and I think you are probably correct.

Unfortunately, that also means that the DOS Demand figures will undercount the true numbers, since USCIS will not request the visa until pre-adjudication is complete.

Sometimes it's just nice to wish. Would it have taken so much effort to have added another stage in the online status to reflect pre-adjudication when they changed the system?

I don't think so. It just reflects that USCIS are not, despite what they might want people to believe, very customer orientated.

[vizcard]

imdeng,

Thanks for the kind words.

I hear what you say about pre-adjudication and I think you are probably correct.

Unfortunately, that also means that the DOS Demand figures will undercount the true numbers, since USCIS will not request the visa until pre-adjudication is complete.

Sometimes it's just nice to wish. Would it have taken so much effort to have added another stage in the online status to reflect pre-adjudication when they changed the system?

I don't think so. It just reflects that USCIS are not, despite what they might want people to believe, very customer orientated.

Which could mean that the dates might move faster (whenever they do move) than they should and then retrogress again.

[camilosesto83]

Question on I-129 form

Hi Folks,

I have a question on form I-129 for H1b filing during change of employer.

In part 4, they ask "Have you ever filed an immigrant petition for any beneficiary in this petition"

The new employer for whom I intend to work (who is filing this I-129) has not filed any immigrant petition for me. But I have an approved I-140 with my previous employer. In this case, should the answer be yes or no.

Thanks in advance

Camilo

[chengisk]

Which could mean that the dates might move faster (whenever they do move) than they should and then retrogress again.

Technically isn't that one of the reasons the dates moved all the way into 2010? - other than tardy receipts.

[qesehmk]

Camilo - welcome to forum.
I-129 is an employer form. So the question is being asked to the new employer who hasn't yet filed immigrant petition for you. So the answer is "NO".
Not sure why you are filling out the form. just helping out the employer?

Question on I-129 form

Hi Folks,

I have a question on form I-129 for H1b filing during change of employer.

In part 4, they ask "Have you ever filed an immigrant petition for any beneficiary in this petition"

The new employer for whom I intend to work (who is filing this I-129) has not filed any immigrant petition for me. But I have an approved I-140 with my previous employer. In this case, should the answer be yes or no.

Thanks in advance

Camilo

[redsox2009]

More cases from 2008 and 2009 were added as expetcted.

Looks like China date will progress.

I'm not sure if the ROW will become current. I highly doubt.

[openaccount]

Not bad from Demand Data EB2ROW were shot of 5.5k to 6k max in FY2012. I was expecting this to be around 8 k. So EB2ROW will be 'C' in November. EB2I should move to some where in 2005.

[druvraj]

Hi everyone,

Last year when the dates stopped somewhere close to mid year of 2007 I was confident that my PD(Feb-2008) will be current. I actually told my wife that 2012 will be the year we will get our GCs. The kind of year we had was totally unexpected. So this year I am kinda open minded by not making any prediction at the same time hoping that I will get it in 2013 full 5 years after I applied for the labor. Good luck to all.

It is Oct 10 and still the VB is not out.Surprising!!!???

[gc_soon]

EB3-I before Jan 1, 2007 as per demand data was 43,900 in Oct DD and now it's 43,500. Just a 400 reduction.
Other than monthly allocation of EB3-I, looks like less than 150 are porting cases with PD Jan 1,2007 that have been reflected in the latest DD.

Last month's DD from a Trackitt comment.
Last Month Demand Data

Employment Second Preference
Cumulative All Other
Demand Prior To Countries China India Grand Total
January 1, 2007 25 75 1,350 1,450
January 1, 2008 25 925 5,500 6,450
January 1, 2009 25 4,075 20,000 24,100
January 1, 2010 275 6,375 30,900 37,550
January 1, 2012 4,850 6,950 34,000 45,800

Employment Third Preference
Cumulative All Other Grand
Demand Prior To Countries China India Mexico Philippines Total
January 1, 2002 0 0 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2003 0 0 2,475 0 0 2,475
January 1, 2004 0 0 13,500 0 0 13,500
January 1, 2005 0 50 25,925 0 0 25,975
January 1, 2006 200 175 34,050 25 75 34,525
January 1, 2007 4,925 1,200 43,900 450 5,325 55,800
January 1, 2012 12,650 1,700 47,550 1,275 7,700 70,875

[RRRRRR]

Hi All,

It is the 8th business day of this month and no Visa bulletin yet,do you think they are cooking something really good...?

Thanks

[nilebib]

Hi All,

It is the 8th business day of this month and no Visa bulletin yet,do you think they are cooking something really good...?

Thanks

Not for EB2I :(, But I assume EB2 ROW will be current.

[vishnu]

ya, dont expect any positives for eb2 i until Q3/Q4 when spill over levels become clearer.

[goforgreen]

Hi All,

It is the 8th business day of this month and no Visa bulletin yet,do you think they are cooking something really good...?

Thanks

I was just thinking when will someone post saying "its already 10 and no bulletin, will it be good news ..." :-)

I know we always hope against hope, but I think CO is back to being overly cautious after being overly aggressive in moving dates in 2012.

On another note my Labour was filed for the role of Project Manager, is Data Architect/Technology Architect considered a similar role or not. I've completed 6 months of 485 filing and see many opportunities coming up, but most of them are in the roles I mentioned above. So wondering if it would be considered a similar job as the labour application.

[GCKnowHow]

EB3-I before Jan 1, 2007 as per demand data was 43,900 in Oct DD and now it's 43,500. Just a 400 reduction.
Other than monthly allocation of EB3-I, looks like less than 150 are porting cases with PD Jan 1,2007 that have been reflected in the latest DD.

Last month's DD from a Trackitt comment.
Last Month Demand Data ...........................


EB2I Demand reduced only 250 before Jan 07 and quite a lot increased for the rest. Seems like porting is on full swing.

Cumulative .........All Other
Demand Prior To...Countries...China ...India...Grand Total
January 1, 2007..........-25.......-75.....-250......-350
January 1, 2008.............0.....-100.......300.......200
January 1, 2009.............0........25....1,275.....1,300
January 1, 2010........-225.......125....2,400.....2,300
January 1, 2012.....-3,200.......250....3,200........250

[gc_soon]

EB2I Demand reduced only 250 before Jan 07 and quite a lot increased for the rest. Seems like porting is on full swing.

Cumulative .........All Other
Demand Prior To...Countries...China ...India...Grand Total
January 1, 2007..........-25.......-75.....-250......-350
January 1, 2008.............0.....-100.......300.......200
January 1, 2009.............0........25....1,275.....1,300
January 1, 2010........-225.......125....2,400.....2,300
January 1, 2012.....-3,200.......250....3,200........250

Good analysis. But as Vishnu pointed out in comment #52, it could be that more cases are getting pre-adjucated. Seeing the effect of porting might take some time, as it's been <10 days in VB and interfiling step could take 2-4 weeks.

[gkjppp]

My PD is Mar/2010. so atleast for next 1.5 to 2 years i cant dream about GC. recently i got one contract to hire offer. Salary is 20% more than what i make now, I am thinking to go for it.

1. My H1 is valid till Feb,2013. recently my employer asked me to fill I9 to change to EAD. Now working on EAD.is it possible to go back to H1 and renew it?

2.if I change my employer , its already 180 days completed. i see these days USCIS is sending denial letters instead of NOID. I think my current employer definetely revoke my I140, does this triggers 485 denial/NOID though i send them AC21?

[coolguy]

My PD is Mar/2010. so atleast for next 1.5 to 2 years i cant dream about GC. recently i got one contract to hire offer. Salary is 20% more than what i make now, I am thinking to go for it.

1. My H1 is valid till Feb,2013. recently my employer asked me to fill I9 to change to EAD. Now working on EAD.is it possible to go back to H1 and renew it?

2.if I change my employer , its already 180 days completed. i see these days USCIS is sending denial letters instead of NOID. I think my current employer definetely revoke my I140, does this triggers 485 denial/NOID though i send them AC21?

Once on EAD, your H1 is no more valid (if you didnt get it renewed). You cannot renew it.

If I140 gets revoked by the current employer, you may end up having problem when getting GC.

[imdeng]

I was looking through Spec's data repository and I was struck by the fact that amidst all the doom and gloom, FY2010 and FY2011 have been blockbuster years for EB2I. All time high SOFADs. I think we are in a phase of temporary hiatus, burning through the excesses of FY2012 - but soon we will be back to track. My hope is that the recent misadventures of CO will not dissuade him from continuing with quarterly (monthly?) spillovers when EB2ROW becomes current.

BTW - did Spec and others post their estimate of the SOFAD for FY2012? The search function of the board is not very effective, at least in my hands.

[imdeng]

Demand Data shows EB3 to be in a very interesting situation. C/M/ROW - everybody except I and P, are poised to enter the abyss after 07/07 in next few months. It will be very interesting to see what kind of density they get once they cross the threshold. While we perhaps overestimated the demand destruction situation in EB2I, I would not be surprised if the demand destruction is more real in the EB3 world.

[willywonka]

Hello gurus
Does the retrogression of Eb2I to 2004, monthly quota allocation and slow movement forward until summer of 2013 actually reduce the potential rate of porting ?
Does the impending financial cliff look bad enough to contribute any additional spillover for Eb2I than what we would get otherwise ?
Thanks

[GCKnowHow]

Once on EAD, your H1 is no more valid (if you didnt get it renewed). You cannot renew it.

If I140 gets revoked by the current employer, you may end up having problem when getting GC.

I think this is not correct. You can move to H1 as long as its valid. And H1 can be renewed until final decision on I485.

If AC21 is used then the application becomes invalid only if the employer revokes I-140 based on fraudulent info/data.

Experts please confirm.

[GCKnowHow]

Hello gurus
Does the retrogression of Eb2I to 2004, monthly quota allocation and slow movement forward until summer of 2013 actually reduce the potential rate of porting ?
Does the impending financial cliff look bad enough to contribute any additional spillover for Eb2I than what we would get otherwise ?
Thanks

I rather think otherwise. Slow movement gives ample opportunity for porting to use as much, before the dates forward. If a big movement happens then the most of the visa will be consumed by pre-adjucated applications.

[self.coach]

I think this is not correct. You can move to H1 as long as its valid. And H1 can be renewed until final decision on I485.

If AC21 is used then the application becomes invalid only if the employer revokes I-140 based on fraudulent info/data.

Experts please confirm.

What does significant salary change mean with regard to AC21? If one gets a job at another company that pays 40% more salary for the same position, would that casue the AC21 to be denieD?

[usernameisnotvalid]

User nt2012 with PD Sep 2008 EB2 recieved I-485 CPO mail ?!!??

[imdeng]

Source? Link?? Did I miss something somewhere???

User nt2012 with PD Sep 2008 EB2 recieved I-485 CPO mail ?!!??

[imdeng]

I do not have direct experience of this - but based on what I have read, if your job is in a similar area, then career progression (and hence more money) is not a problem. Even less salary is not a problem by itself (for example - if you move to a less expensive city). Look up Murthy's FAQ on AC21 - it is very informative. Also - I believe denials of AC21 are rare and happens only in egregious cases.


What does significant salary change mean with regard to AC21? If one gets a job at another company that pays 40% more salary for the same position, would that casue the AC21 to be denieD?

[Spectator]

User nt2012 with PD Sep 2008 EB2 recieved I-485 CPO mail ?!!??I think it is probably significant that the user used the phrase:


Posted by nt2012 (25) 34 minutes ago
I got an SMS this afternoon for my and my wife I-485 from TSC stating that Card Production Ordered and mailed today.

That suggests that they actually only had a document mailed to them, not actually a Card Production. it doesn't particularly suggest an approval to me.

[usernameisnotvalid]

It is trackkit.

I checked this guy's profile and he mentioned I-140 approval date Sep 2008 and his PD is also Sep 2008 ?!?!? Something is not correct. Typo?


Source? Link?? Did I miss something somewhere???

[usernameisnotvalid]

..and nt2012 is already under interrogation on trackkit! :)

[mbasense]

Thus, although the SOFAD prospects remain good for the foreseeable future, EB2-I will be unable to close or reduce the gap due to increasing demand. Long term, the queue is not sustainable.

very well said. if they choose not to regulate porting or have some sort of differenciator EB2-I will cease to be much different from EB3-I.

Q - you should add like buttons - a lot of posts from the gurus will surely rack up some numbers - might reduce some thank you clean ups too :)

[qesehmk]

mbasense - the like buttons on our forum is the star you see under each post. Unfortunately it is not very intuitive but it works exactly like the "like" buttons you are referring to.

Q - you should add like buttons - a lot of posts from the gurus will surely rack up some numbers - might reduce some thank you clean ups too :)

[ajaydons]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5779.html

No movement for EB2-I
EB2-I No movement
EB2-C 1.5 months movement
ROW- Current

[srimurthy]

ROW is C and China moves by 3 months and India surprisingly dates stay the same

[pdfeb09]

What does significant salary change mean with regard to AC21? If one gets a job at another company that pays 40% more salary for the same position, would that casue the AC21 to be denieD?


I do not have direct experience of this - but based on what I have read, if your job is in a similar area, then career progression (and hence more money) is not a problem. Even less salary is not a problem by itself (for example - if you move to a less expensive city). Look up Murthy's FAQ on AC21 - it is very informative. Also - I believe denials of AC21 are rare and happens only in egregious cases.

See if you find this AC21 Discussion (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?992-AC21-Discussion/page3) useful.

[openaccount]

EB2-I No movement


Either CO got information from USCIS that they are going to provide 250 visas for PDs prior to Sep 2004--Or--CO wants to gauge porting demand for October and then move dates in November(Dec VB) based on October porting demand--new portings added in month of October.

[redsox2009]

I belive next month we should see some movement for India Eb2 touching 2005. China should/will move close to 2008.

[usernameisnotvalid]

Now because ROW is current can we expect some miracles in last 2 quarters?

[qesehmk]

I belive next month we should see some movement for India Eb2 touching 2005. China should/will move close to 2008.

India should easily reach into 2007 Dec ... but if it will be in one month or 2 or 6 - can't say. By Sep 2013 EB2I should be in late 2008.

[CleanSock]

November bulletin is out. EB2I is at 1st Sept 04. No change.
EB2C : 1st Sept 2007.
EB2 ROW : Current

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I feel the VB is just fine. EB2 ROW is current which is good I think they should be quite literally able to clean out all EB2 ROW backlog. Approvals are coming quite steadily for both EB1 and EB2 ROW. EB2 China is also moving. Eb2 India will be just fine when the spillover starts in May 2013 until then I believe we should not be reading the dates literally because they are based on 250 per month. I do however believe that we will have 6K nett porting this year however atleast 2K of that should be attributed to the last year this will be significant in light of the fact that we are expecting reduced SOFAD this year. EB3-I anyone beyond Jan 2003 should definitely explore porting to get to GC faster in absence of any reforms.

[ChampU]

EB2-ROW - C is a huge relief..It reduces the "EB2 variables" to India and China. EB2-C is at a comfortable date, which EB2-I can easily catch up, barring any catastrophic rise in other visa numbers. If we assume 3k porting applications, prior to Sept. 1st 2007, it would take 6268 visas (2800 Regular quota visas+ SOFAD of 3468).

EB2-C would be a good date to follow moving forward. Assuming porting EB3C-EB2C porting is 0, just with its regular allocation, EB2-C will reach mid-August 2008. With a 3k porting estimate, EB2-I would need roughly 18600 vias (SO of roughly 16k).

[ChampU]

I had a question about EB2-ROW being Current..

EB2-ROW gets roughly 2750 visas per month.

A COD for EB2-ROW (01/01/2009) was put in place in the July bulletin.In the October visa bulletin, a COD of 01/01/2012 was put in place.

So it is safe to assume that whatever applications were pending between 01/01/2009-01/01/2012, were processed and approved before the Fiscal Year began. (possibly by the 5k visas received from FB).

EB2-ROW is C for the November bulletin.So the 5500 odd visas that were allocated to EB2-ROW this year ( 2750 each for Oct. and November), were enough to take care of their demand.

Even if we assume that these 5500 visas are strictly the cases between July and October, EB2-ROW demand is not more than 22k visas. Add to that the 5600 visas allocated to EB2-IC. Does that mean, we can expect a spillover of at least 8-10k from EB2-ROW?

[gc_soon]

Friends I feel the VB is just fine. EB2 ROW is current which is good I think they should be quite literally able to clean out all EB2 ROW backlog. Approvals are coming quite steadily for both EB1 and EB2 ROW. EB2 China is also moving. Eb2 India will be just fine when the spillover starts in May 2013 until then I believe we should not be reading the dates literally because they are based on 250 per month. I do however believe that we will have 6K nett porting this year however atleast 2K of that should be attributed to the last year this will be significant in light of the fact that we are expecting reduced SOFAD this year. EB3-I anyone beyond Jan 2003 should definitely explore porting to get to GC faster in absence of any reforms.

Hi Teddy,
It seems like CO is moving dates based on 250 per month. But even then, we should have seen dates still move (maybe by few months). Do we still have 250 more cases before Sep 2004 (after 250 that got or will be approved in Oct). Looks like porting is killing all the monthly quota.

[openaccount]

Hi Teddy,
It seems like CO is moving dates based on 250 per month. But even then, we should have seen dates still move (maybe by few months). Do we still have 250 more cases before Sep 2004 (after 250 that got or will be approved in Oct). Looks like porting is killing all the monthly quota.
Not an expert but here is my take.
VB was released on October 12th from Oct1-Oct10 there could have been some new porting numbers(probably<100) added to DD compared to previous month, that might have influenced in not moving PD. If in 10 days some X new porting numbers were added to DD then there is a fair chance for that number to become 2X by Nov1, that could be the reason for not moving PD.

[ChampU]

EB2-ROW is consuming much less than their annual quota. At the beginning of this FY, the DD showed their demand was close to 6K, which is only 2K per month. At that rate, they should yield 10K SO. Realistically though, 6K of that would be consumed by the carried over demand. So we could expect 4K SO from EB2-ROW.

I'm sorry, I didn't understand the calculation.

1. The ~6k Demand, that showed up in the Oct. Demand Data is the Carried Over Demand, correct?

2. Assuming the Demand is roughly 2k per month, the Demand for the month of November should have been 5300 (6000 (Carry Over) + 2000 (Oct. Demand) - 2700 (EB2-ROW quota) = 5300).

3. The Demand Shows up as 1650. It could mean either A. EB2-ROW received an excess of ~3.7k (5.3-1.6) visas in the month of October. Or B.The Residual Demand for October and Project November Demand Combined was 1050 (6000 -2700 (Oct.) - 2700 (Nov.) + 1050 = 1650).

The second scenario seems too good to be true and the first seems highly unlikely. What do you think?

[bvsamrat]

My take on this

As it will be difficult to estimate or predict demand for last 2-3 months, in which case those might be added back to EB2-I as spill over. Hence my guesstimate would be around 10K from EB2-ROW. May be at the expense of them being unavailable to EB2-ROW for 1-2 months!


I don't have the October demand data at my fingertips, but I believe it showed EB2-ROW being close to 6K. If you think about it, EB2-ROW was practically unavailable for 3 months, so the demand accumulated at the beginning of October shows the number that would have been approved in those 3 months. That works out @2K per month.

For the month of November, the demand number will be reduced substantially because many people must have been approved in October. Going forward, EB2-ROW demand should show 0, because they will be current at all times.

If EB2-ROW is going at around 2K a month, they will leave 34K - 2K*12 = 10K SO. Subtract the 6K accumulated from FY 2012, and they should yield close to 4K SO in July.

[gc_soon]

Thanks sportsfan on ROW demand explanation - makes sense. How could one guess the EB-1 demand, given the fact that, it is not mentioned in the demand data.
Hopefully 485 pending inventory that will be released(this month?) will give us some clue to Eb1 trends?

[GhostWriter]

ROW PERMs for FY-2012
The below links show a total of 67K PERMs filed in 2012. Subtracting 10K withdrawn and denied applications we get 57K which will ultimately get certified (52K are already certified, rest are pending). Of these 62% (35K) would be India and China, leaving 22K for ROW. This includes both EB2 and EB3.

http://www.kidambi.com/resources/perm%20statistics%202012.pdf

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/05/dol-issues-foreign-labor-certification-statistics/

Spec, i was comparing this number with your facts and data numbers for 2010 and 2011. Those are calender years so will be slightly off but since both are 12 months of data i guess they can still be compared for purposes of getting the trend. Both those years have 18-19K of PERMs for ROW. So this indicates slight increase in ROW-PERM filings in 2012.

Using a transformation ratio of 1 this should result in 22K EB2-ROW I-485s (some filed in 2012 and some in 2013). This should leave room for 10-12K spillover from EB2-ROW (on average). Will you agree or am i missing something. I think Q also had a similar question with past year ROW PERM data.

[ChampU]

ROW PERMs for FY-2012
The below links show a total of 67K PERMs filed in 2012. Subtracting 10K withdrawn and denied applications we get 57K which will ultimately get certified (52K are already certified, rest are pending). Of these 62% (35K) would be India and China, leaving 22K for ROW. This includes both EB2 and EB3.

http://www.kidambi.com/resources/perm%20statistics%202012.pdf

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/05/dol-issues-foreign-labor-certification-statistics/

Spec, i was comparing this number with your facts and data numbers for 2010 and 2011. Those are calender years so will be slightly off but since both are 12 months of data i guess they can still be compared for purposes of getting the trend. Both those years have 18-19K of PERMs for ROW. So this indicates slight increase in ROW-PERM filings in 2012.

Using a transformation ratio of 1 this should result in 22K EB2-ROW I-485s (some filed in 2012 and some in 2013). This should leave room for 10-12K spillover from EB2-ROW (on average). Will you agree or am i missing something. I think Q also had a similar question with past year ROW PERM data.

Thanks for the input,Ghostwriter.. It raises hopes for a lot of folks..

[imdeng]

EB3I is unlikely to get any spillover from anywhere. When, for example, EB3ROW cliff reaches, EB3ROW dates will be moved forward to get new inventory just like they did for EB2IC, preventing any horizontal spillover to EB3I. As far as any vertical spillover is concerned - it is not happening any way because of EB2IC - and even if some did reach EB3 some time in future, they will first go to EB3ROW before reaching EB3IC because of the 7% rule.

One factor to mull over: EB3-ROW is soon going to face a demand cliff and it will happen this FY (most likely June/July?). This means that EB3-I is poised to get thousands of spillover visas that should drastically eliminate porting for FY 2014. If EB1 demand stays low/is managed, and EB2-ROW trends continue, I think in FY 2014, the EB2-I date might cross May 2010.

[imdeng]

Even though EB2I did not move in this VB, I am quite fine with it. EB2ROW getting to C is quite significant - that means horizontal spillovers are now accumulating and will flow to EB2I whenever CO decides to act on it (quarterly spillovers hopefully - then start of the new quarter - the Jan VB).

[qesehmk]

imdeng - you are right. Unfortunately that is true. The only way EB3I can receive any spillover is if EB3ROWMP is current. Even if ROW faces cliff - they will advance the dates. Even if they don't - EB3M has huge CP demand. So most of the spillover if any will go to EB3P.
EB3I is unlikely to get any spillover from anywhere. When, for example, EB3ROW cliff reaches, EB3ROW dates will be moved forward to get new inventory just like they did for EB2IC, preventing any horizontal spillover to EB3I. As far as any vertical spillover is concerned - it is not happening any way because of EB2IC - and even if some did reach EB3 some time in future, they will first go to EB3ROW before reaching EB3IC because of the 7% rule.

[ChampU]

Even though EB2I did not move in this VB, I am quite fine with it. EB2ROW getting to C is quite significant - that means horizontal spillovers are now accumulating and will flow to EB2I whenever CO decides to act on it (quarterly spillovers hopefully - then start of the new quarter - the Jan VB).

As disheartening as it may sound, I doubt CO will go for QSP, as early as Jan. With his plate full with EB2-IC and with lessons learnt last year, I believe CO will move dates conservatively, until he is absolutely sure he doesn't have to put a COD on EB2-ROW or EB1. I think that point of comfort would come around May/June.

[imdeng]

On the other hand - it is a possibility that the EB3M/P/ROW density is not very high post 07/07. So a path to EB3ROW being current some time in future is possible. I believe the ratio of EB3 to EB2 has declined after 07/07 and the transient factors that drove up the EB3 demand (like nurses from P, the big nurse shortage is over) have subsided. Plus the recession might have caused some real demand destruction there. We will know how this will turn out as we get visibility on the post-07/07 demand for EB3ROW/M/P in a few months.

Update: BTW - looking at Spec's collection of PERM data for ROW/M/P, the number of PERMs have declined drastically. From 44K for 2007 PDs to just 18K for 2011 PDs. However, both 2007 and 2008 are pretty dense - so it is a couple years at least before the low density will show up.

imdeng - you are right. Unfortunately that is true. The only way EB3I can receive any spillover is if EB3ROWMP is current. Even if ROW faces cliff - they will advance the dates. Even if they don't - EB3M has huge CP demand. So most of the spillover if any will go to EB3P.

[cool_guy_2004]

Cool_Guy-

You have entered using your AP i.e you have been given an entry as Payrolee. In other words your are in a payrolee status. To answer your qtn:

- You can with no issues continue to work your existing H1b with the same employer
- When your current H1B expires and assuming that you didn't get your GC and you would like to continue on H1B, you can apply for extension using the current H1b and if the extension is approved you automatically get back to H1B from payrolee
- You can also file for a transfer using the current H1B, when the transfer is done you again automatically move to H1B status from payrolee
- If at all you decide to continue on EAD (which i wud not suggest since you have H1 for few more months), then you have to file a new I-9 with your employer and have to be proactive in getting your EAD/AP extensions

It is now upto you if you would like to continue on H1B or start using the EAD. Choice uis yours.

Thanks Sandeep.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,
It seems like CO is moving dates based on 250 per month. But even then, we should have seen dates still move (maybe by few months). Do we still have 250 more cases before Sep 2004 (after 250 that got or will be approved in Oct). Looks like porting is killing all the monthly quota.

Some people have pointed out that the demand data did reduce by 250 however the dates did not move. The only explanation is that the agencies still feel that 250 porting cases can still come up before Sep 2004 with new porting related i140's being approved and interfiling. So essentially its a case of a moving target with the demand data reduction not being able to truly represent the situation. Unfortunately this will keep going on for a few months till the May - Jul. This actually is the default mode of operation (Very Conservative Movement) what we saw last year was an exception as an inventory had to be created. The big silver lining of this bulletin is that EB2 ROW is now current. Porting has not really increased however last year probably only 50% porting cases saw approval due to dates going to unavailable.

[justvisiting]

The Demand Data provide a good hint of how much porting is going on:

EB3I fell by 425. EB-3I before 2003 dropped by 175 - if you assume all of these were "charged" to EB3, then the difference 425-175 equals 250.

Therefore there is a minimum of 250 porting cases being approved for EB3 I

One caveat: EB3 ROW dropped by 1275 before 2007, but only by 1200 before 2012. This means applicants may be adding dependents (such as follow to join) or 2007 cases are being preapproved even at this late date. The same may be happening on EB3 I, which would "mask" the true size of porting.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Q/ Spec/ Gurus ,

Exactly what month or range of months do we predict EB2-India to reach or cross Dec 07

[bvsamrat]

My opinion is that if December 2007- when it comes will take the dates up to atleast mid 2008 at one shot. MY guess is January/February 2013


Q/ Spec/ Gurus ,

Exactly what month or range of months do we predict EB2-India to reach or cross Dec 07

[Eb2_Dec07]

Are we expecting Quarterly Spill beginning second quarter ?


My opinion is that if December 2007- when it comes will take the dates up to atleast mid 2008 at one shot. MY guess is January/February 2013

[imdeng]

Sportsfan - none of the EB3 dates have even reached 2007 yet, let alone 07/07. CO has months to plan and get additional inventory for EB3. While they don't seem much efficient up there, I doubt they will mess up something this predictable and well in advance. I think something like 4 months before they estimate to reach the demand cliff, they will extend PD beyond 07/07 and get enough inventory to to carry forward as usual. They might even push the dates far beyond 07/07 (say 2009, 2010) so that they get enough inventory to last a couple years.

Update: Based on current inventory and burn rate of the inventory ROW (11.4K) should be the first to show movement along with C (1.4K) and M (1.2K). I and P have enough demand. Hmm... they do not have much time. Assuming a 4-6 months processing time for USCIS and a 250/month burn rate for countries and 2K/month burn rate for ROW, they need to extend PDs beyond 07/07 and accumulate inventory in next few VBs. If they fail to extend PDs in next 3 months then yes, they may reach a situation where its Sept and they need to use all the visas - but they don't have enough documentarily qualified ROW/C/M applicants. If that happens then I can see a horizontal spillover to EB3I (it could go to EB3P as well - but if its not going to ROW then it will go to I since P and I both are over the 7% limit and I has older PDs). Am I correct in assuming that P has reached the 7% limit - I do not recall top of the mind right now.

It's a timing issue.

EB2-I faced demand cliff early in FY 2012. The dates were advanced rapidly, but the visas allocated in Q1 were still for clearing the previous backlog. Only in Q2, around February or so, were they allocating new visas. It still takes them 2 to 3 months to pick even the low hanging fruits.

I think EB3-ROW will face a demand cliff around June/July of 2013. Even if dates are advanced rapidly, there still will not be enough visas to give in the months of July to September (unless I am missing the EB3-P demand, and if the EB3-P can indeed go beyond the 2800 visas). EB3-I should receive some spillover if the demand cliff happens for EB3-ROW. And it will be very interesting to see how they move the EB3-ROW dates then - especially after they had some experiences with EB2-I. If the date movement is not aggressive enough, EB3-I will continue getting spillover.

Please shred this theory to pieces Gurus if it's a wishful fantasy.

[imdeng]

Shouldn't the 485 Inventory Report be out by now? Last year's report was as of Oct 1st.

[imdeng]

So I was reading Ron's Forum and I came across the following:

For once, the demand data is a more valuable predictor. Given the historic number of visas given to Indian EB2 applicants and the number of pending cases, I think that movement deep into 2009 this fiscal year should not be a problem.

Obviously, people were skeptical and asked the to explain - and his explanation is something worth reading:

Looking at historic data, the pre-2009 demand for India EB2 is about 80% of what Indian applicants get annually. Because of the age of those cases, I suspect that perhaps as many at 15 to 20 per cent of them are no longer active and will not receive visas. There will be new "upgrade" cases coming on line as priority dates advance, but keep in mind that it takes the USCIS a while to close out these types of cases. If someone has a pending I-485, the case can be closed quickly if the applicant knows what to do (which most don't) and acts promptly. For new I-485 cases that will be filed in response to cutoff dates moving forward, count on those taking between six and twelve months to get approved. Since cutoff date movement is controlled in large part by actual visa issuances (demand), I don't see these cases really having any effect on FY2013 cutoff date movement.

It is amazing that for someone who is in the industry and has a widely read forum, he is so much off base. No consideration of the carryover EB2ROW and porting demand from last year, no discussion of increased demand from EB1 - just a blanket assertion with an arbitrary date. His explanation makes no sense and there is no way we are touching "deep 2009" in FY2012.

Link: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18349

[abcx13]

@Ron's post - why would someone show up in demand data (i.e. file an I485) if they don't have an active offer?

[bvsamrat]

If that is the case, the porting will reduce and hence the Eb2_I PD will move fast?

Glad that you see the same possibility. The ROW demand has reduced and the time is running out for them to extend the PD. I see no indication that the PD will go beyond 07/07 any time soon. If the demand cliff is reach around June/July and the PD is still hovering at 07/07, then a lot of folks in EB3-I are going to be happy.

[sreddy]

So I was reading Ron's Forum and I came across the following:
Obviously, people were skeptical and asked the to explain - and his explanation is something worth reading:
It is amazing that for someone who is in the industry and has a widely read forum, he is so much off base. No consideration of the carryover EB2ROW and porting demand from last year, no discussion of increased demand from EB1 - just a blanket assertion with an arbitrary date. His explanation makes no sense and there is no way we are touching "deep 2009" in FY2012.
Link: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18349

I think 2012 EB1 numbers are not indicative of the EB1 demand because of the delay in 140 approvals in 2011, and they all applied for 485 in 2012. I still think 2013 quota should see EB2I moving at least to May/June 2008, if not more (We know good number of people upto March 2008 already got greened). But i agree with you, going deep into 2009 is un-imaginable at this point.

[gc_soon]

I think 2012 EB1 numbers are not indicative of the EB1 demand because of the delays in 140 approvals in 2011, and they all applied for 485 in 2012. I still think 2013 quota should see EB2I moving at least to May/June 2008, if not more (We know good number of people upto March 2008 already got greened). But i agree with you, going deep into 2009 is un-imaginable at this point.

Any particular reasons for delays of 140 approvals in 2011 as an one off case?

[sreddy]

Any particular reasons for delays of 140 approvals in 2011 as an one off case?

Some thing internal i guess, and yes it is one off case. That's the reason 2011 saw good spillover, but effected 2012. Well 2012 had other things as well, EB1 numbers from 2011 coming into 2012 was one of them.

[bvsamrat]

In what way this will help? The demand figures as we know today is what it is considering and subtracting who got GCs. Otherwise the numbers would have been more?.Isn't it?


(We know good number of people upto March 2008 already got greened). .

[imdeng]

This is the conspiracy-theory-guy in my talking, but perhaps CO/DHS/USCIS realize the absurdness of EB3I PDs in 2002s (10+ year wait). If they let the status-quo go on and not get new inventory for EB3ROW/C/M this FY- then say 15K visas land into the lap of EB3I in Sept. That would take EB3I PD up by about 2.5 years to a 2004 number (8+ year wait) - which would still be infuriating but at least understandable given that EB2I has a 5+ year wait.

Of course, as we reach closer to the possibility, EB3ROW/C/M folks will raise enough stink (and rightfully so from their point of view) that this will never happen. I guess porting is the only option left for EB3I.


I do not think there will be an immediate effect. Most porting cases take several months to close, so the porting GCs that will be issued 4 to 6 months from now have been filed already.

However, going forward, there will certainly be less porting intensity if the above happened. I remember looking at the demand data and determining porting was intense in the years 2005 and 2006. The demand from these 2 years has reduced substantially already. These years are kind of any a grey zone...they have been in the system for a long time (hence they have the experience and financial means to undertake porting endeavors such as switching employers, getting an advanced degree etc.), but they are nowhere close to getting the GCs. If the PD was in 2004, porting intent will be much less for those folks.

The benefit to EB2-I will be indirect. But the overall gloom and doom would reduce a lot. If the EB3-I date were to make a quantum jump, I think it would help everyone. I really hope the cards fall this way and in absence of EB3-ROW/M demand, EB3-I gets at least 5-6K spillover.

[vizcard]

Any particular reasons for delays of 140 approvals in 2011 as an one off case?


Some thing internal i guess, and yes it is one off case. That's the reason 2011 saw good spillover, but effected 2012. Well 2012 had other things as well, EB1 numbers from 2011 coming into 2012 is one of them.

There was the Karzarian memo which caused a lot of confusion and delays for EB1. All that spilt over into 2012. Hopefully that corrects itself.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Savvy?

Deppfan33?

[imdeng]

Folks - I have shifted all the posts regarding EB3 to EB2 porting and whether it is right or not in its own thread - so that we can keep the main thread clean and on focus.

You can continue the discussion here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?1338-Porting-Discussion-For-and-Against

Thanks.

[sbhagwat2000]

Gurus - I read some data about porting and have been troubled after that. I read somewhere that CO had said that only in the month of February 2012 USCIS processed 336 applications with PD of 2005. If this is true then porting is exploding right? All these case have to be interfiling cases correct? that were tackled by USCIS in Feb. If porting is so huge then how would dates ever move? Another concern is I looked at May 2012 485 inventory and I see that EB1 usage is double than last year. So what does that mean for SOFAD? The situation looks almost hopeless to me. BTW my PD is EB2 Feb 2005 and with all this I am reading I am no hopeful about my own date. Please someone give me some hope

[bvsamrat]

2005 FEB appears too old as quite a few up to 2007 were cleared early this year, unless you have ported recently or your case was held in audits etc.

But my opinion is that EB2-ROW might contribute to a very good spill over as usual and my guess in minimum 10,000 which will easliy clear dates upto early 2008. But not sure if will happen in December/January 2013 with quarterly spill over and year end spill over.

Only Gurus can explain.


Gurus - I read some data about porting and have been troubled after that. I read somewhere that CO had said that only in the month of February 2012 USCIS processed 336 applications with PD of 2005. If this is true then porting is exploding right? All these case have to be interfiling cases correct? that were tackled by USCIS in Feb. If porting is so huge then how would dates ever move? Another concern is I looked at May 2012 485 inventory and I see that EB1 usage is double than last year. So what does that mean for SOFAD? The situation looks almost hopeless to me. BTW my PD is EB2 Feb 2005 and with all this I am reading I am no hopeful about my own date. Please someone give me some hope

[imdeng]

Do you have a link to share about the CO's statement. He usually never gets this specific about numbers.

Gurus - I read some data about porting and have been troubled after that. I read somewhere that CO had said that only in the month of February 2012 USCIS processed 336 applications with PD of 2005. If this is true then porting is exploding right? All these case have to be interfiling cases correct? that were tackled by USCIS in Feb. If porting is so huge then how would dates ever move? Another concern is I looked at May 2012 485 inventory and I see that EB1 usage is double than last year. So what does that mean for SOFAD? The situation looks almost hopeless to me. BTW my PD is EB2 Feb 2005 and with all this I am reading I am no hopeful about my own date. Please someone give me some hope

[sbhagwat2000]

I don't get it. Aren't you a porter yourself? Many people like you are porting - so why are you worried about porting per se? I would be thankful for the porting option if I were in your shoes.

Now as for your case - your PD will most likely be current in December. If not, within a couple of months. I would not really worry about the PD right now. Even if many people in 2005 ported, your PD is early in the year, so I don't see why you should not be current by Dec/Jan. Spillover for your own specific case is immaterial.

Also, the inventory doesn't paint the complete picture. There could be many pending cases in the inventory at a given juncture. It's just a snapshot. The queue processes certain number of cases and the rate of approvals is what's important and that's exactly what the USCIS never reveals. Yes, the EB1 usage was high last year. We don't know what it will be this year. My gut feeling is that EB1 will yield some spillover - if lucky, it could go into 5 digits. EB2-ROW will also yield a healthy spillover despite the backlog clearance. Everything considered, I see the EB2-I dates in the later half of 2008 by the end of this FY.

I am a porter and I am happy abt it and think that anyone who gets a chance should do it. I am just trying to make sense of this whole thing where EB2I has gone back to 2004 as unfortuanately due to a personal situation it has impacted me negatively.

[abcx13]

I am a porter and I am happy abt itDuh, of course!

[Spectator]

Do you have a link to share about the CO's statement. He usually never gets this specific about numbers.imdeng,

This may be the source of the information. (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17533&p=74215#post74215)

It was posted in last year's thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2012&p=28223#post28223) as well.

[imdeng]

Thanks Spec.

imdeng,

This may be the source of the information. (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17533&p=74215#post74215)

It was posted in last year's thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2012&p=28223#post28223) as well.

[sbhagwat2000]

imdeng,

This may be the source of the information. (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17533&p=74215#post74215)

It was posted in last year's thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2012&p=28223#post28223) as well.
So is that not concerning?363 applications in a month

[chewbaca]

Friends,
I had asked this question a couple of months ago but seems like the expectations/estimates have changed since then. Could you please once again have a go at my question?

My EB2 PD is Jan 10 2008, any estimate/idea on when this could get current.

thanks again.

[sbhagwat2000]

Buckle up Dorothy, because it's gonna be a wild ride! OK, fun aside, you are fine. In all likelihood, you should be current with a couple of months, so hang in tight. The Gurus have already clarified that the dates are in 2004 because they are only allocating 233 cases to EB2-I each month, and it's going to continue at least until March. Even then, I think we should continue seeing 3 to 4 month advances each VB that would cover the pending porting cases during that period. I think your date should be current by Dec/Jan so you should plan accordingly.

Hey thanks for the reply. Lets see how it turns out. I had a question abt the interfiling cases from June - October. Would those be included in the DD that they released for the October/nov bulletins or they would be added now? So these are the cases where the dates were U, people have sent interfiling letters and those letters are not processed by USCIS as dates were U.

[kd2008]

Can Spec, Teddy and other please comment on the following?

What would be the EB3-ROW-M-P-C demand next summer should the floodgates open for them and the dates move forward?

total PERMS (rough eye-ball calculations)

2007 post -aug: 20K
2008 : 38K
2009 : 23K
2010 : 19K
2011 : 19K
2012 : 24K (estimated)

Total : 143K

Assuming 40% of it is EB3, then 0.4*143K = 57.2K
Assuming 2.25 applicants for each PERM, 2.25*57.2K = 128.7K

Wow! That is a lot of EB3 applicants waiting. If few of these folks decide to port EB2-ROW-M-P can get backlogged with a snap of fingers! Hmmm ..something to think about. I didn't mean to depress EB2IC folks. But they should be :-)

[imdeng]

I don't think EB3ROWMP folks feel the need to port as acutely as EB3I - just because of the difference in the amount of waiting involved. You need 5 years experience (ball park) for porting to EB2 and the waiting for EB3 is 6 years - so might as well wait for another year and get the GC in EB3ROWMP.



Assuming 2.25 applicants for each PERM, 2.25*57.2K = 128.7K

Wow! That is a lot of EB3 applicants waiting. If few of these folks decide to port EB2-ROW-M-P can get backlogged with a snap of fingers! Hmmm ..something to think about. I didn't mean to depress EB2IC folks. But they should be :-)

[sbhagwat2000]

I don't get it. Aren't you a porter yourself? Many people like you are porting - so why are you worried about porting per se? I would be thankful for the porting option if I were in your shoes.

Now as for your case - your PD will most likely be current in December. If not, within a couple of months. I would not really worry about the PD right now. Even if many people in 2005 ported, your PD is early in the year, so I don't see why you should not be current by Dec/Jan. Spillover for your own specific case is immaterial.

Also, the inventory doesn't paint the complete picture. There could be many pending cases in the inventory at a given juncture. It's just a snapshot. The queue processes certain number of cases and the rate of approvals is what's important and that's exactly what the USCIS never reveals. Yes, the EB1 usage was high last year. We don't know what it will be this year. My gut feeling is that EB1 will yield some spillover - if lucky, it could go into 5 digits. EB2-ROW will also yield a healthy spillover despite the backlog clearance. Everything considered, I see the EB2-I dates in the later half of 2008 by the end of this FY.

Spillover to my date and case may not be immaterial as remember from June - October dates were U. We dont know the number of interfiling letters sent. All these will now be reflected in the DD and processed. If that number is huge we will need spillover to move dates even into 2005.

[ksur23]

What do you guys think about Ron's prediction below about eb2I going in to 2009 this fiscal year?


"All I know is what I hear from the experts in the Visa Office. They say that cutoff date movement for India EB2 is going to be slow during the first fiscal quarter of the year (October - December). After that it should pick up and move into 2009."

[Spectator]

What do you guys think about Ron's prediction below about eb2I going in to 2009 this fiscal year?


"All I know is what I hear from the experts in the Visa Office. They say that cutoff date movement for India EB2 is going to be slow during the first fiscal quarter of the year (October - December). After that it should pick up and move into 2009."Let's put some figures to that and you can decide.

According to the Demand Data, just to reach the end of 2008 requires about 25.7k approvals for EB2-IC. With an allowance for porting, that is probably slightly over 30k.

That means that about 25k spare visas would need to be available from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2-WW.

I'll leave it to you to decide whether that is possible or not.

[qesehmk]

To add to what Spec said here - there have been years when the SOFAD has been 5K and there have been years when it was 40K or even more. So will it be in 2013 closer to 40K or 5K? Depending on the answers the dates could move between Dec 2007 and Jun 2009. My own guess is it will be around Sep 2008.


Let's put some figures to that and you can decide.

According to the Demand Data, just to reach the end of 2008 requires about 25.7k approvals for EB2-IC. With an allowance for porting, that is probably slightly over 30k.

That means that about 25k spare visas would need to be available from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2-WW.

I'll leave it to you to decide whether that is possible or not.

[Spectator]

To add to what Spec said here - there have been years when the SOFAD has been 5K and there have been years when it was 40K or even more. So will it be in 2013 closer to 40K or 5K? Depending on the answers the dates could move between Dec 2007 and Jun 2009. My own guess is it will be around Sep 2008.The historical Spillover and SOFAD figures can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards).

Spillover has varied between a low of 7.5k (FY2009) and a high of 26.6k (FY2011).

The corresponding SOFAD figures are 13.2k and 32.3k respectively.

The figure for FY2011 is really artificially high due to the extremely low EB1 approvals in FY2011.

The FY2012 figure is not yet available, but is unlikely to be as high as FY2011 and will be inflated by numbers (at least 6k) that were over-allocated at the expense of EB2-WW, causing that group to retrogress.

In FY2013, it is likely that there will be an element of "pay back" of the over-allocated visas, causing a lower number for spillover to EB2-IC.

A Cut Off Date of September 2008 for EB2-IC would require about 25k SOFAD (including Porting).

Currently, I think the final Cut Off Date for FY2013 is likely to be at the lower end of your range, although it is really too early to say.

On Porting to date, the EB2-I demand had already reduced by 250 in the 9 days before the November Demand Data was published.

Based on that, the current figure for the month appears to be slightly over 600. This may have influenced CO's decision to keep the Cut Off Date at 01SEP04 for EB2-I in the November VB.

[ksur23]

The historical Spillover and SOFAD figures can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards).

Spillover has varied between a low of 7.5k (FY2009) and a high of 26.6k (FY2011).

The corresponding SOFAD figures are 13.2k and 32.3k respectively.

The figure for FY2011 is really artificially high due to the extremely low EB1 approvals in FY2011.

The FY2012 figure is not yet available, but is unlikely to be as high as FY2011 and will be inflated by numbers (at least 6k) that were over-allocated at the expense of EB2-WW, causing that group to retrogress.

In FY2013, it is likely that there will be an element of "pay back" of the over-allocated visas, causing a lower number for spillover to EB2-IC.

A Cut Off Date of September 2008 for EB2-IC would require about 25k SOFAD (including Porting).

Currently, I think the final Cut Off Date for FY2013 is likely to be at the lower end of your range, although it is really too early to say.

On Porting to date, the EB2-I demand had already reduced by 250 in the 9 days before the November Demand Data was published.

Based on that, the current figure for the month appears to be slightly over 600. This may have influenced CO's decision to keep the Cut Off Date at 01SEP04 for EB2-I in the November VB.

From what you and Q are saying and extrapolating EB2I PD the beginning of 2009 PDs would fall in 2nd quarter of 2014? This is like the consensus forecast i guess, taking the average of the EPS (in this case PD) forecasts of various important equity analysts (in this case PD analysts!

[qesehmk]

Spec thanks. I used 2008 numbers and mistakenly assumed ROW then at 30K max - which gave 40K SOFAD. However forgot that in 2008 tons of ROW backlog was cleared as opposed to providing SOFAD to EB2IC.

So if we go by 32K as the high number and 7K as low then 20K is the mean which should approximately forward dates around Aug-2008. In reality we will know better when we see the latest 485 inventory.


The historical Spillover and SOFAD figures can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards).

Spillover has varied between a low of 7.5k (FY2009) and a high of 26.6k (FY2011).

The corresponding SOFAD figures are 13.2k and 32.3k respectively.

The figure for FY2011 is really artificially high due to the extremely low EB1 approvals in FY2011.

The FY2012 figure is not yet available, but is unlikely to be as high as FY2011 and will be inflated by numbers (at least 6k) that were over-allocated at the expense of EB2-WW, causing that group to retrogress.

In FY2013, it is likely that there will be an element of "pay back" of the over-allocated visas, causing a lower number for spillover to EB2-IC.

A Cut Off Date of September 2008 for EB2-IC would require about 25k SOFAD (including Porting).

Currently, I think the final Cut Off Date for FY2013 is likely to be at the lower end of your range, although it is really too early to say.

On Porting to date, the EB2-I demand had already reduced by 250 in the 9 days before the November Demand Data was published.

Based on that, the current figure for the month appears to be slightly over 600. This may have influenced CO's decision to keep the Cut Off Date at 01SEP04 for EB2-I in the November VB.

[qesehmk]

EB2_Dec07 - sorry I never responded to this.

I think this should be achievable in a couple of months (if spillover starts immediately - less likely) and worst case is Jun 2013 since the backlog upto Dec 2007 is more than EB2I quota.

The reason there is so much difference in two dates is simply because Visa office has never been consistent in execution of its policies (if any). If anything they are consistent about being unpredictable unfortunately.


Q/ Spec/ Gurus ,

Exactly what month or range of months do we predict EB2-India to reach or cross Dec 07

[Spectator]

Spec thanks. I used 2008 numbers and mistakenly assumed ROW then at 30K max - which gave 40K SOFAD. However forgot that in 2008 tons of ROW backlog was cleared as opposed to providing SOFAD to EB2IC.

So if we go by 32K as the high number and 7K as low then 20K is the mean which should approximately forward dates around Aug-2008. In reality we will know better when we see the latest 485 inventory.Q,

Via a different calculation, I would agree that underlying SOFAD for EB2-IC has averaged 19-20k since spillover changed. Each year, there has been a factor that has altered the actual figure. Possibly there will be another one in FY2013.

In my calculations, 20k would leave EB2-I at May-June 2008, depending on how much Porting is assumed.

If there is a payback of, say, 6k visas over-allocated in FY2012, then the figure for FY2013 would drop to 13-14k. That would pull the dates back to the end of 2007 for EB2-I.

Of course, that may not happen, but EB5 numbers are also likely to increase.

EB2-WW is a strange beast! Despite lowering PERM approvals, the approval numbers have held up. In FY2011 they actually exceeded their allocation and appeared on course for a figure around 30k in FY2012 before they were retrogressed. At the same time, the backlog numbers in the USCIS Inventory did not reduce, That tends to say that backlog reduction is not the cause. There seems to be something about EB2-WW that we (well at least me) don't fully understand. NIW, Schedule A and the WW EB2/EB3 split are some unknowns that immediately come to mind.

For me, it is EB2-WW that holds the key for SOFAD in FY2013, not EB1.

I agree that the new Inventory may be useful, but it has never been great for understanding Categories/Countries that are Current.

I do hope CO releases the FY2012 Visa Statistics in January rather than August. I think there is a quite wide variation in what people think happened last year and I would like to see the actual figures. Only then can I really reset my own thinking and forecasts.

[kd2008]

Q,

Via a different calculation, I would agree that underlying SOFAD for EB2-IC has averaged 19-20k since spillover changed. Each year, there has been a factor that has altered the actual figure. Possibly there will be another one in FY2013.

In my calculations, 20k would leave EB2-I at May-June 2008, depending on how much Porting is assumed.

If there is a payback of, say, 6k visas over-allocated in FY2012, then the figure for FY2013 would drop to 13-14k. That would pull the dates back to the end of 2007 for EB2-I.

Of course, that may not happen, but EB5 numbers are also likely to increase.

EB2-WW is a strange beast! Despite lowering PERM approvals, the approval numbers have held up. In FY2011 they actually exceeded their allocation and appeared on course for a figure around 30k in FY2012 before they were retrogressed. At the same time, the backlog numbers in the USCIS Inventory did not reduce, That tends to say that backlog reduction is not the cause. There seems to be something about EB2-WW that we (well at least me) don't fully understand. NIW, Schedule A and the WW EB2/EB3 split are some unknowns that immediately come to mind.

For me, it is EB2-WW that holds the key for SOFAD in FY2013, not EB1.

I agree that the new Inventory may be useful, but it has never been great for understanding Categories/Countries that are Current.

I do hope CO releases the FY2012 Visa Statistics in January rather than August. I think there is a quite wide variation in what people think happened last year and I would like to see the actual figures. Only then can I really reset my own thinking and forecasts.

Spec, may be EB2-WW has a certain lumpiness in approvals - either due to PERM approvals slowing down/backlog or I-485 approvals slowing down. So say, June-Dec period sees high rate of EB2-WW approvals ...they end up showing as a slightly high demand in two fiscal years that straddle that period. Just a theory. May be we can back test this theory from limited trackitt data.

[Spectator]

Spec, may be EB2-WW has a certain lumpiness in approvals - either due to PERM approvals slowing down/backlog or I-485 approvals slowing down. So say, June-Dec period sees high rate of EB2-WW approvals ...they end up showing as a slightly high demand in two fiscal years that straddle that period. Just a theory. May be we can back test this theory from limited trackitt data.kd,

I've tried to understand it several times without success. Any insight would be gratefully received.

Over time, the numbers still remain surprisingly high. EB2-WW = ROW, M & P

FY2008 - 48,338 (probably high due to July 2007 effect??)
FY2009 - 32,865
FY2010 - 27,406
FY2011 - 34,550

Ignoring FY2008, that still is an average of 31.6k per year with no particular trend.

I have to suspect that large parts of ROW have abandoned EB3 as a route to residency in recent years and that the EB2/EB3 split may be even higher than for EB2-I. China, Mexico and Philippines are different for various reasons IMO.

If so, that could be good news for EB3 in the future (perhaps post PD2008), but approvals that late are likely still several years away, even though the Cut Off Dates might advance much sooner.

When that happens, for the first time, we may be able to see the reality, depending how far they are advanced.

[GhostWriter]

Spec, any thoughts on 2012 PERM numbers for EB-WW.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013&p=30616#post30616

Does 22K PERM figure for EB-WW seem reasonable. Also do you assume 80% approval rate for I-140s for the overall ratio. It could be higher than that, only 15% PERMs were denied or withdrawn. So denial rate at I-140 stage should be even lower.

How many I-485s would you say 22K EB-WW PERMs can generate for EB2-WW ?


kd,


Over time, the numbers still remain surprisingly high. EB2-WW = ROW, M & P

FY2008 - 48,338 (probably high due to July 2007 effect??)
FY2009 - 32,865
FY2010 - 27,406
FY2011 - 34,550

Ignoring FY2008, that still is an average of 31.6k per year with no particular trend.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I just saw this update from the Capital Immigration Law Group newsletter.

Heads Up: Bleak picture painted for EB2-I

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/?utm_source=Capitol+Immigration+Law+Group+Newslett er&utm_campaign=9b498a483e-Weekly_Newsletter_Oct_25_2012&utm_medium=email

[Spectator]

I just saw this update from the Capital Immigration Law Group newsletter.

Heads Up: Bleak picture painted for EB2-I

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/?utm_source=Capitol+Immigration+Law+Group+Newslett er&utm_campaign=9b498a483e-Weekly_Newsletter_Oct_25_2012&utm_medium=emailIsItWorthTheTrouble,

Thanks for bringing this to the forum.

Here is the part dealing with EB2-I for FY2013.


For EB-2 India Mr. Oppenheim indicated that very little or no movement is expected over the next months.

The reason is simply the huge demand of EB-2 cases and the very small number of visa numbers available in this category.

The high demand appears to be caused by the high number of I-485 cases filed by EB-2 applicants (and their family members) earlier this year and also the very high number of EB-3 India applicants who are now porting into EB-2 India.

Mr. Oppenheim suggested almost no movement in EB-2 India with an absolutely best case scenario of having a cutoff date of late 2007 or early 2008 by the end of the fiscal year.

I suggest people read the whole article - it is very interesting.

I noted that he did not mention EB3-Philippines or EB4.

Other "highlights":


EB-1. This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year, not unlike what happened during the summer of 2012.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. Unlike last year, where these two categories were anticipated to move forward dramatically, unfortunately, EB-2 for China and India are expected to move very slowly. Specifically, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects EB-2 China to move forward by approximately 2 weeks in every month’s visa bulletin with a possible target of cutoff date somewhere in the second half of 2008 by the end of the fiscal year (September 30, 2013).

EB-5. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is very strong — a 120% increase compared to last year, with 80% of the allocated numbers going to Chinese nationals. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that a cutoff date (the first for EB-5) is possible (even highly likely) towards later in the fiscal year. As an example, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that 20% of the annual numbers for EB-5 have been used in the first two months of the fiscal year – October and November.

[abcx13]

IsItWorthTheTrouble,

Thanks for bringing this to the forum.

Here is the part dealing with EB2-I for FY2013.



I suggest people read the whole article - it is very interesting.

I noted that he did not mention EB3-Philippines or EB4.

Other "highlights":

I just received the newsletter and was coming here to post the snippets. While interesting, it basically says the EB2I situation is completely f***ed. Apologies for the language - but when EB2 doesn't advance at all for a whole year thanks to porting, that's the only word that fits. They need to do something about restricting porting and becoming stricter about educational evals. Counting dependents doesn't help either.

[sbhagwat2000]

I just received the newsletter and was coming here to post the snippets. While interesting, it basically says the EB2I situation is completely f***ed. Apologies for the language - but when EB2 doesn't advance at all for a whole year thanks to porting, that's the only word that fits. They need to do something about restricting porting and becoming stricter about educational evals. Counting dependents doesn't help either.

Since hes talking about a cutoff for EB 2 WW that means theres not going to be any spillover right? So hes correct in saying that EB 2 I will not move even by a single day throughout the year. Whats going to happen is this I think - Just like Fy 2011 - the date will not move until July 2013. If at that time we get spillover then the dates will move into 2007 as hes saying.

[Spectator]

Spec, any thoughts on 2012 PERM numbers for EB-WW.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013&p=30616#post30616

Does 22K PERM figure for EB-WW seem reasonable. Also do you assume 80% approval rate for I-140s for the overall ratio. It could be higher than that, only 15% PERMs were denied or withdrawn. So denial rate at I-140 stage should be even lower.

How many I-485s would you say 22K EB-WW PERMs can generate for EB2-WW ?GhostWriter,

As I have already said, I find it quite difficult to gauge EB2-WW demand from the available information.

I would suggest that the TR might be >1.

Since EB2-WW is generally Current, the Demand Destruction factor is going to be a lot lower than for Countries that are retrogressed.

[abcx13]

Since hes talking about a cutoff for EB 2 WW that means theres not going to be any spillover right? So hes correct in saying that EB 2 I will not move even by a single day throughout the year. Whats going to happen is this I think - Just like Fy 2011 - the date will not move until July 2013. If at that time we get spillover then the dates will move into 2007 as hes saying.

Yeah, but the long term shift is what scares me - EB2I is very quickly morphing into EB3I, exactly as I had feared. This is just proof of that. With ROW demand where it is and the long backlog of EB3I, non-porting-EB2I is barely going to have any allocation left over.

[abcx13]

Even if there is absolutely zero porting, the current backlog of EB2-I will take a decade to clean without any spillovers.

Don't disagree and if ROW demand rises, this may well be the case - but I doubt it'll take a year. But my point was that EB2-I is NOT EVEN MOVING thanks to porting. And I think CO still doesn't know what the exact porting numbers are...I don't know why one of the attorneys hasn't asked what % of EB2I has gone to porting in the past x months/years.

[Spectator]

I think CO still doesn't know what the exact porting numbers are...I don't know why one of the attorneys hasn't asked what % of EB2I has gone to porting in the past x months/years.He doesn't. The information is unknown.

CO has said previously that neither USCIS or DOS keep track of those numbers. The best he can do is guesstimate, which he did in a previous communication. His "guesstimate" was so high that it is difficult to take it entirely seriously. He really doesn't know.

[sandeep11]

Just found this on cilawgroup:

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/

[sbhagwat2000]

One thing to note is in the article it says these are short term predictions. So I think these may change next year and EB2 I could move. Looking at the demand data of 1100 ( and that also includes most of the interfilings from may to oct) its difficult to see what CO is saying. also the 1100 is before 2006 so all of that is not before 2004 sept. I still think EB2 I will move after 4-6 mos

[harapatta2012]

sandeep11
Thanks, this was posted sometime ago.

All,

I do not understand why EB3-EB2 porting especially for EB3I-EB2I is being just a gamechanger now. I am not denying that as EB3I with PD in 2004-2006 gets more experience, they would port and therefore porting would GRADUALLY increase, which is fine.
What is not understood is : Is there EXPONENTIAL increase in porting that we are worried here?


Just found this on cilawgroup:

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/

[geevikram]

Guys,
I read the report from CO and he has not provided any new information. We all know that he is going to allocate 200 odd visas to EB2I until later next year. We also know that porting is high. We also know that EB2WW and EB5 usage has increased. The only other factor is, we don't know how the past trend will hold up. A lot depends on economy. Even if economy sneezes a bit (which I don't want), we will have a lot less filings in EB2 WW and porting will reduce leading to more spillover. There are just so many variables that without latest inventory and accurate future usage, we can only guess. Since CO does not know future trends, he is guessing too.

Remember, he is the same person who told us that he will try to bring the dates forward to 2010 by this time. It hasn't happened. There is no cause for worry. I do believe we will get a healthy spillover as economy is not chumming along for any non-tech related field (source of most EB2-ROW visas) and when economy nose dives EB1 and EB5 filings take a hit too. On the other hand, it is great cause of worry as it affects many of our jobs directly. Cross your fingers and hold on to your job. You may just get lucky.

[abcx13]

EB2-I needs an SOFAD of at least 21K (18+3 ballpark) to just stay on the treadmill. That's what I have learned from this forum. If you exclude porting, you would still need 18K.

Hence, the SOFAD required to stay in the game comprises of a large number, and porting makes up only 14% of that number. We need the other 86%. If porting was absent, but the SOFAD was absent too, life in EB2-I will suck. Is it really comforting if the PD was moving 1 week every month versus if it was frozen?

Let's not blame the porters. I keep thinking of the same 6 letters that is the only hope for everyone now - HR3012.

Based on CO comments, I think this forum might be severely underestimating porting.

[Spectator]

Based on CO comments, I think this forum might be severely underestimating porting.I'm not sure many people use that low a figure - I certainly don't.

[abcx13]

I'm not sure many people use that low a figure - I certainly don't.

I thought the estimate here was only 3-5k porting?

[bvsamrat]

Given the number of H1B filing last 2 years, future will bring back normalcy- IMHO
Also with 2004 being PD for EB2 as of now, less incentive for porters as of immediate.

My guess is that Mid 2008 is still possible this FY for Eb2-I

Afterwords who knows---


Based on CO comments, I think this forum might be severely underestimating porting.

[openaccount]

CO comments are based past 6 months usage May-October 2012. He will come with a totally different theory than what he is saying now after 6 months.

We can only wait for Inventory reports from USCIS and keep on guessing.
EB2I movement depends on how much EB2WW is going to consume between Jan-Jun2013.

[vizcard]

This just means you'll get US citizenship (if you want it) a year latter than initially though. I realize that GC lifts the weight off peoples shoulders but having EAD/AP is just as good in the short term. I don't want this to become a discussion about merits or otherwise of GC and EAD but my point is don't freak out if the situation is bleak.

Focus on things that you can control (lobbying?) and on things that are important in life (family, health, etc.)

[pch053]

I just saw this update from the Capital Immigration Law Group newsletter.

Heads Up: Bleak picture painted for EB2-I

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/?utm_source=Capitol+Immigration+Law+Group+Newslett er&utm_campaign=9b498a483e-Weekly_Newsletter_Oct_25_2012&utm_medium=email

I agree it's not the most rosy picture for EB2-I but CO's prediction of EB2-I cut-off dates to hover around late 2007 and early 2008 at the end of FY13 is not that different from Spec's original prediction a month or two back (please correct me, if I am wrong here) where the expected date was supposed to be around end of 2007. As indicated in Spec's later post, nothing is mentioned about EB4 and it can throw surprises either way.

[sbhagwat2000]

I agree it's not the most rosy picture for EB2-I but CO's prediction of EB2-I cut-off dates to hover around late 2007 and early 2008 at the end of FY13 is not that different from Spec's original prediction a month or two back (please correct me, if I am wrong here) where the expected date was supposed to be around end of 2007. As indicated in Spec's later post, nothing is mentioned about EB4 and it can throw surprises either way.

I have a very basic question. CO is saying he may need to have a cutoff on EB2 ROW in summer. Now if thats the case then how and where would EB2I get extra visas from? If theres a cutoff for EB2 ROW then how can extra visas filter down to EB2I

[yank]

From Murthy;

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/25/visa-bulletin-predictions-for-eb2/

[Spectator]

I have a very basic question. CO is saying he may need to have a cutoff on EB2 ROW in summer. Now if thats the case then how and where would EB2I get extra visas from? If theres a cutoff for EB2 ROW then how can extra visas filter down to EB2IThe other alternative is that EB2-WW is given a Cut Off Date towards the end of the year because, as last year, CO has allocated extra visas to EB2-I and total numbers available to EB2 run out.

Otherwise, it means EB1/EB2-WW will use in excess of 74.4k visas.

Leaving EB4 aside, EB5 won't provide any spillover to EB1 according to CO, so EB1 will only have 40k visas. At the same time, CO is saying EB1 will remain Current, so that number is sufficient.

In that case, EB2-WW would have to use at least 34.4k visas to be retrogressed, even if EB1 provided no spillover to EB2. I guess that scenario is just about possible, given the fall through from last year.

In that case, EB2-I would only have 2.8k visas available - a number that wouldn't allow EB2-I to remotely approach even 2007 IMO.

I would still say that is an unlikely scenario.

[veni001]

From Murthy;

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/25/visa-bulletin-predictions-for-eb2/

Nothing new, same info (prediction) Q has been preaching for some time now.

[makmohan]

Nothing new, same info (prediction) Q has been preaching for some time now.

Friends,

From this murthy post and what gurus have said, looks like there is no chance of my PD (EB2I Apr08) being current again in 2013 fiscal yr.

I'm changing my job to somewhat similar code - SE to BA - 15-1132 to 15-1121). Employer will be extending my H1 (lawyer suggestion, as backup, in case of any AC21 issues)

I don't think it's worth letting big opportunities go just like that. I'll keep the forum posted.

-Mohan

[yank]

Q,

I hesitate to ask this question and I know you had earlier provided related info on this topic. I would like to know realistic chance of getting GC. PD is in Jan 08. Have to take few important carrier decisions and don't want to take a chance through AC21.

Would appreciate your response.

[qesehmk]

Yank - my take is 100% within 1 years. 20% within 6 months (i.e. assuming quarterly spillover kicks in). All the best!
Q,

I hesitate to ask this question and I know you had earlier provided related info on this topic. I would like to know realistic chance of getting GC. PD is in Jan 08. Have to take few important carrier decisions and don't want to take a chance through AC21.

Would appreciate your response.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey All Gurus

My PD - 05/14/2008 - EB2 I
Can i expect my GC in the 1st Qtr of 2014 Fiscal Year?

I have few questions about using EAD , Im still on H1 - calid till Sept 2014

1. If i use EAD, do i have to be employed and run payroll every month?
2. If i Renew EAD in Dec 20th - 120 days before it expires Apr 20th, can i use EAD from Jan 1st ?
3. I am planning to get to EAD from Jan 2013 and be with employer only, until i get GC. Is that an issue?
4. After Getting GC do i have to work for Employer if completed 1 yr on EAD with employer?
5. If my current contract ends 2-3 mons before i get my green card, can i just be without working for those months or take vacation to india and still be able to get GC without paystubs for those 3 mons?

[qesehmk]

I have updated header with general guidance for all interested in GC. Will add analysis later this week.

[Spectator]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/

[vizcard]

Hey All Gurus

My PD - 05/14/2008 - EB2 I
Can i expect my GC in the 1st Qtr of 2014 Fiscal Year?

I have few questions about using EAD , Im still on H1 - calid till Sept 2014

1. If i use EAD, do i have to be employed and run payroll every month?
2. If i Renew EAD in Dec 20th - 120 days before it expires Apr 20th, can i use EAD from Jan 1st ?
3. I am planning to get to EAD from Jan 2013 and be with employer only, until i get GC. Is that an issue?
4. After Getting GC do i have to work for Employer if completed 1 yr on EAD with employer?
5. If my current contract ends 2-3 mons before i get my green card, can i just be without working for those months or take vacation to india and still be able to get GC without paystubs for those 3 mons?

It is possible that you will get your GC in Q1 2014 but that is dependent on how CO wants to manage it.

1. Yes you do. You EAD is not a GC. You run a risk of a RFE and not having requisite docs.
2. You can use your current one and then switch to the new one (btw if you are not changing employers why are u switching from H1 to EAD?)
3. No issue there
4. Your EAD has nothing to do with GC. You can work on your H1 or EAD and quit any time after your GC.
5. See #1.

[sbhagwat2000]

The other alternative is that EB2-WW is given a Cut Off Date towards the end of the year because, as last year, CO has allocated extra visas to EB2-I and total numbers available to EB2 run out.

Otherwise, it means EB1/EB2-WW will use in excess of 74.4k visas.

Leaving EB4 aside, EB5 won't provide any spillover to EB1 according to CO, so EB1 will only have 40k visas. At the same time, CO is saying EB1 will remain Current, so that number is sufficient.

In that case, EB2-WW would have to use at least 34.4k visas to be retrogressed, even if EB1 provided no spillover to EB2. I guess that scenario is just about possible, given the fall through from last year.

In that case, EB2-I would only have 2.8k visas available - a number that wouldn't allow EB2-I to remotely approach even 2007 IMO.

I would still say that is an unlikely scenario.

Spec,

So i looked at the data posted by you earlier about spillovers and I guess in 2010 EB2 ROW used more that 34400. So thats possible again right? Was there something special about that year? Also whats your opinion that if theres no spillover how much would EB2 I move considering your knowledge about porting. My PD is Feb 2005. Any idea from you would be great

[Spectator]

Spec,

So i looked at the data posted by you earlier about spillovers and I guess in 2010 EB2 ROW used more that 34400. So thats possible again right? Was there something special about that year? Also whats your opinion that if theres no spillover how much would EB2 I move considering your knowledge about porting. My PD is Feb 2005. Any idea from you would be greatI'm not aware of anything special about FY2011 off hand. FY2010 was a little below average and the combination of the two was about average.

In FY2012, EB2-WW were retrogressed for 3 months, so in FY2013, potentially EB2-WW approvals can be a normal year's worth plus the additional 6-7k who could not be approved in FY2013 due to retrogression.

For that reason, it may be difficult to get any spillover from EB2-WW this year and in a worse case scenario EB2-WW would actually use any spillover from EB1.

Even in a zero spillover scenario, which at this time I don't actually think will happen, the Cut Off Dates should still move past Feb 2005 at some point. The trick would to get approved while they remain so.

[bvsamrat]

EB2-ROW - another view- As the retroressed Eb2-Row caught up in the frist month itself- clearing the backlog and also meeting the current demand, it is more than likely that they may give a good spill over

What about inventory? - If it drops to less than a good number, is there a chance for making dates progress again >2010 (in FY2014) to get more inventory?


I'm not aware of anything special about FY2011 off hand. FY2010 was a little below average and the combination of the two was about average.

In FY2012, EB2-WW were retrogressed for 3 months, so in FY2013, potentially EB2-WW approvals can be a normal year's worth plus the additional 6-7k who could not be approved in FY2013 due to retrogression.

For that reason, it may be difficult to get any spillover from EB2-WW this year and in a worse case scenario EB2-WW would actually use any spillover from EB1.

Even in a zero spillover scenario, which at this time I don't actually think will happen, the Cut Off Dates should still move past Feb 2005 at some point. The trick would to get approved while they remain so.

[sbhagwat2000]

I'm not aware of anything special about FY2011 off hand. FY2010 was a little below average and the combination of the two was about average.

In FY2012, EB2-WW were retrogressed for 3 months, so in FY2013, potentially EB2-WW approvals can be a normal year's worth plus the additional 6-7k who could not be approved in FY2013 due to retrogression.

For that reason, it may be difficult to get any spillover from EB2-WW this year and in a worse case scenario EB2-WW would actually use any spillover from EB1.

Even in a zero spillover scenario, which at this time I don't actually think will happen, the Cut Off Dates should still move past Feb 2005 at some point. The trick would to get approved while they remain so.

Spec,

Thanks for your reply. We will have to see EB1 usage this year to see how much fall down it gives. I had one more question which is bothering me. The Demand data pre 2007 which fell from 1350 to 1100. does that contain the iterfiling requests made between may and oct when the dates were U. Or those will be added now

[PD2008AUG25]

For that reason, it may be difficult to get any spillover from EB2-WW this year and in a worse case scenario EB2-WW would actually use any spillover from EB1.



Wouldn't any spillover from EB1 go to most retrogressed country, India? I thought spillover is only based on priority date.

[sbhagwat2000]

I was reading up on the visa statistics for the past years and see that a couple of years - 2009 and 2010 EB1 actually used 41000 visas. Thats a bummer. I guess 2013 is building out to be a perfect storm. EB1 demand is high so will most likely consume its quota. EB5 - theres going to be a COD. EB2 WW due to fall through from last year may consume or exceeed its quota. So with this are there any other places from where visas can be spilled overto EB2 I? I hope I am wrong somewhere here but looks like this year theres going to be no spillover. With no SO we are left to the unknowns of demand pre 2004 and so can easily see dates not moving at all. But whats more concerning is that this looks like a long term trend and hence EB2 I will get only 2800 visas for the next few years. Gurus - please correct me if I am wrong with my analysis.

[bvsamrat]

Can you also check how many Eb2-ROW visas were given out on 2009/10/11?
This might give us a clue?


I was reading up on the visa statistics for the past years and see that a couple of years - 2009 and 2010 EB1 actually used 41000 visas. Thats a bummer. I guess 2013 is building out to be a perfect storm. EB1 demand is high so will most likely consume its quota. EB5 - theres going to be a COD. EB2 WW due to fall through from last year may consume or exceeed its quota. So with this are there any other places from where visas can be spilled overto EB2 I? I hope I am wrong somewhere here but looks like this year theres going to be no spillover. With no SO we are left to the unknowns of demand pre 2004 and so can easily see dates not moving at all. But whats more concerning is that this looks like a long term trend and hence EB2 I will get only 2800 visas for the next few years. Gurus - please correct me if I am wrong with my analysis.

[geevikram]

I was reading up on the visa statistics for the past years and see that a couple of years - 2009 and 2010 EB1 actually used 41000 visas. Thats a bummer. I guess 2013 is building out to be a perfect storm. EB1 demand is high so will most likely consume its quota. EB5 - theres going to be a COD. EB2 WW due to fall through from last year may consume or exceeed its quota. So with this are there any other places from where visas can be spilled overto EB2 I? I hope I am wrong somewhere here but looks like this year theres going to be no spillover. With no SO we are left to the unknowns of demand pre 2004 and so can easily see dates not moving at all. But whats more concerning is that this looks like a long term trend and hence EB2 I will get only 2800 visas for the next few years. Gurus - please correct me if I am wrong with my analysis.

There are too many unknowns. Take it easy. As long as EBWW is current, we really won't know how far the dates will progress.(it may move a lot, it may not move at all) It's anybody's guess.

[vizcard]

I think it's fairly safe to say dates will progress to dec2007. The big variable is porting. Ironically, this time last year,the gurus were predicting dec2007 to mar2008.

[qesehmk]

Agree vizcard. Last year that prediction actually was spot on - except that we assumed FIFO but CO approved 1/3rd of 2008 EB2 cases ahead of 2007 cases.

This year - IMHO - Dec 2007 is absolute safe bet i.e 100% possibility. I would place median probability at Aug 2008.


I think it's fairly safe to say dates will progress to dec2007. The big variable is porting. Ironically, this time last year,the gurus were predicting dec2007 to mar2008.

[vizcard]

Agree vizcard. Last year that prediction actually was spot on - except that we assumed FIFO but CO approved 1/3rd of 2008 EB2 cases ahead of 2007 cases.

This year - IMHO - Dec 2007 is absolute safe bet i.e 100% possibility. I would place median probability at Aug 2008.

Cant blame CO for that :) Anyway, some folks got lucky, others got shafted but it'll correct itself with time. I'm not so sure about median being Aug 2008. I'd offer that, that is a best case scenario. Personally, Id love that to be the median scenario because of my PD but realistically I'm not sure.

[sbhagwat2000]

Cant blame CO for that :) Anyway, some folks got lucky, others got shafted but it'll correct itself with time. I'm not so sure about median being Aug 2008. I'd offer that, that is a best case scenario. Personally, Id love that to be the median scenario because of my PD but realistically I'm not sure.

So the years 2009 and 2010 when EB1 used 40000 visas EB2 ROW used 27000 and 30000 respectively and hence we got extra visas. in 2011 when EB2 ROW used more that 34,400 EB1 used 27000. So we were lucky last few years when one used more visas other was using less. Thats 100% not going to happen this year. Best case is EB1 is going to use 40000 and EB2 ROW 34400. So I really dont see any SO this year. The data is correct I may be wrong in analysis and there may be some category I am not aware of but we can say good bye to SOFAD this year from EB1 and EB2 ROW. So in that case I think dates may not move at all or based on current DD move to 2006 start.

[qesehmk]

viz - I would absolutely blame CO for that. Simply because it is his job to ensure that people from same chargeability generally get GC in FIFO manner based on PD.

He should've easily foreseen the 2007 august cliff for EB2IC and moved dates quite early to ensure he had sufficient applications to approve if and when numbers were available. Instead he moved the dates quite haphazard.

As per Aug 2008 being a median or not - I would totally respect your opinion since we all are guessing (somewhat intelligently!). My optimism stems from the continued malaise in economy which means much lower levels of EB2ROW and possibly even EB1. This has been quite true for last 4 years and generally EB2IC have benefitted. I do agree that as economy comes back - EB2IC timelines are going to be crushed significantly.


Cant blame CO for that :) Anyway, some folks got lucky, others got shafted but it'll correct itself with time. I'm not so sure about median being Aug 2008. I'd offer that, that is a best case scenario. Personally, Id love that to be the median scenario because of my PD but realistically I'm not sure.

[Spectator]

Based mainly on Trackitt numbers and some educated guesses, here is what I think happened in October.

Generally, a few late updates will increase the figure slightly.

EB1 ---- 2,300
EB2-WW - 3,900
EB2-I ---- 800
EB2-C ---- 250
EB3 ---- 3,000
EB4 ------ 850
EB5 ---- 1,000

Total - 12,100

Max Allowed in month (9%) - 12,600

The figures appear to be at least sensible, but I make no claims to their accuracy.

[openaccount]

Based mainly on Trackitt numbers and some educated guesses, here is what I think happened in October.

Generally, a few late updates will increase the figure slightly.

EB1 ---- 2,300
EB2-WW - 3,900
EB2-I ---- 800
EB2-C ---- 250
EB3 ---- 3,000
EB4 ------ 850
EB5 ---- 1,000

Total - 12,100

Max Allowed in month (9%) - 12,600

The figures appear to be at least sensible, but I make no claims to their accuracy.

Spec,

Nice to see some numbers after along time, especially with 485-Inventory delay.

If EB2I used 800 in October itself, then for December also EB2I is going to stay at 2004. Monthly allocation is 250 and in one month EB2I used 3 months numbers.

[Spectator]

Thanks spec. I am very curious as to your methods for arriving at these numbers, but it is interesting.sportsfan,

You're welcome.


How do you deduce EB2-I used 800 numbers? I thought they were going by a monthly allocation. Does this mean we can expect a fair jump in the December bulletin (that seems contrary to the last word from CO).I would caution at taking the figures to literally. They are only meant to be indicative.

For EB2-I, I am looking at the historical % between Trackitt approvals and actual numbers. I have to look at both EB2 and EB3 because most porters already had an I-485 pending in EB3. Fortunately they are quite similar. This gives a spread of 750 - 825.

I only look at Primary approvals in Trackitt and calculate from that baseline.

In October, to date, there are 37 EB2-I Trackitt approvals (corrected for those that still show in EB3 etc).

The breakdown by PD for the EB2-I approvals is:

PD --- No.
2001 --- 2
2002 --- 2
2003 -- 19
2004 -- 14

Total - 37

If there were only 250 approvals, then Trackitt would have to represent about 15% of all approved EB2-I cases, which is far higher than the historical number over several years. It is possible the % has risen slightly and I will amend the numbers if better info becomes available.

I don't think there is any way it is as low as 250. Given the numbers, there may be no further movement in the December VB either. That said, CO works in mysterious ways!


EB2-WW is mostly backlog, so if we subtract that from the equation, then both EB1 and EB2-WW point to a fairly large spillover later this year. What's your take on that?That's true, but it is a constrained backlog to January 1, 2012.

November will also release more substantial EB2-WW backlog.

I think it is too early to say anything about EB2-WW, given the unusual circumstances.

I also think it is too early to talk about EB1. The approvals can be quite "lumpy". The numbers are also dominated by Indian EB1C approvals, so most EB1 approvals are quite poorly represented, especially EB1-WW in general.

The October EB1 approvals are slightly higher than the same period last year.


EB5 number is absolutely crazy. How did you arrive at that number? Looks like there is not going to be any spillover whatsoever from EB5 this year.CO said that 10% of EB5 would be used in October. That is 940, so I have rounded up slightly.

EB4 is a pure guess based on maximum usage. I need to see what happened in FY2012. FY2011 was low, but it might have been a blip.

You can find more detail here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?1373-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2013-vs.-FY2012).

Hope that helps.

[openaccount]

from trackitt, murthy's article :http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/priority-date-predictions-for-fy13/

Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13. This is subject to change - either up or down - depending upon the usage in the other categories, as explained here.

In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers.
38k total to EB2IC in FY2012 WOW really:confused:

At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13.
which is 10k to EB2I that should take EB2I to Jan2008 assuming porting is <=3k

[qesehmk]

Friends - sorry to steal attention from this thread. But can you please suggest charities for November donations using this site's ad revenues please? We will have about $100 to donate.

please reply HERE (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made/page3) http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made/page3

[GhostWriter]

Thanks for sharing openaccount. Two more interesting things from the article

1. The estimate given as a best case scenario is that, by the end of FY13, EB2 India's cutoff date will advance to a new cutoff date, set at some point in early 2008.

2. Each month, the DOS reports receiving thousands of these requests connected to upgraded cases. Since EB3 is oversubscribed, regardless of country of chargeability, many of these cases are filed by those in EB3 ROW. .... The increase in cases shifting from EB3 to EB2 ROW increases demand in that category. The result is fewer excess numbers that can be shifted out of EB2 ROW to EB2 India and China.



from trackitt, murthy's article :http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/priority-date-predictions-for-fy13/

[Spectator]

from trackitt, murthy's article :http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/priority-date-predictions-for-fy13/

Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13. This is subject to change - either up or down - depending upon the usage in the other categories, as explained here.

In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers.
38k total to EB2IC in FY2012 WOW really:confused:

At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13.
which is 10k to EB2I that should take EB2I to Jan2008 assuming porting is <=3kopenaccount,

Thanks for that. Unfortunately , some of the language is quite ambiguous. I very much doubt that EB2-C received 19k last year. I think they mean EB2-IC received 19k between them. If so, that is quite a bit lower than I was expecting. 19k + 5.8k would have made sense.

At a 13k SOFAD level, EB2-C wouldn't use any spillover, so EB2-I would have 10.2k available. That is pretty much what I have been using to date.

That might leave EB2-I in Q4 2007, possibly very early 2008, depending on porting levels.

If the number is talking about 13k spillover then dates could move to April 2008 for EB2-I. At the moment, 13k SO seems a little optimistic.

[justvisiting]

openaccount,

Thanks for that. Unfortunately , some of the language is quite ambiguous. I very much doubt that EB2-C received 19k last year. I think they mean EB2-IC received 19k between them. If so, that is quite a bit lower than I was expecting.

At a 13k SOFAD level, EB2-C wouldn't use any spillover, so EB2-I would have 10.2k available. That is pretty much what I have been using to date.

That might leave EB2-I in Q4 2007, possibly very early 2008, depending on porting levels.

Porting has become CO's [and everyone trying to predict PD movement]'s greatest headache. It seems pretty clear by now he has no idea how much is out there. This is surprising to me, and it all goes back to USCIS not compiling ANY statistics on I-140 approvals.

There haven't been any Inventory updates either...

[bvsamrat]

I have seen here and other forums that many enquiring with PDs of 2004/2005 are majority porters. But very few porters with PDs of 2006/7/8. If at all , will all these cases be added to demand at any time in future?


Porting has become CO's [and everyone trying to predict PD movement]'s greatest headache. It seems pretty clear by now he has no idea how much is out there. This is surprising to me, and it all goes back to USCIS not compiling ANY statistics on I-140 approvals.

There haven't been any Inventory updates either...

[GhostWriter]

I think the focus has been off the correct type of porting. If the Murthy article is accurate then bulk of the porting is EB3-ROW porting. If we take what they call "thousands of upgrade applications per month" as just 1K per month that is 12K porting per year. If EB3-I porting is 3K per year that still leaves room for 9K EB3-ROW porting. This actually also explains what we were discussing couple of pages ago i.e. why does low PERM applications for ROW not reconcile with high number of EB2-ROW I-485s. I think high EB3-ROW porting explains that anomaly. PD for EB3-ROW has been between 2004-2006 last couple of years. Post 2007 EB3-ROWers (without EADs) would have been porting over this time and since EB2-ROW has been mostly current they would never have shown up in the demand data.

Since details for porting are not available this is just a theory and could be wrong but i do think that low ROW PERM numbers but high EB2-ROW usage does make it seem possible. So EB2-I could have been losing much more potential spillover to EB3-ROW (and not to EB3-I).


I have seen here and other forums that many enquiring with PDs of 2004/2005 are majority porters. But very few porters with PDs of 2006/7/8. If at all , will all these cases be added to demand at any time in future?

[Spectator]

I think the focus has been off the correct type of porting. If the Murthy article is accurate then bulk of the porting is EB3-ROW porting. If we take what they call "thousands of upgrade applications per month" as just 1K per month that is 12K porting per year. If EB3-I porting is 3K per year that still leaves room for 9K EB3-ROW porting. This actually also explains what we were discussing couple of pages ago i.e. why does low PERM applications for ROW not reconcile with high number of EB2-ROW I-485s. I think high EB3-ROW porting explains that anomaly. PD for EB3-ROW has been between 2004-2006 last couple of years. Post 2007 EB3-ROWers (without EADs) would have been porting over this time and since EB2-ROW has been mostly current they would never have shown up in the demand data.

Since details for porting are not available this is just a theory and could be wrong but i do think that low ROW PERM numbers but high EB2-ROW usage does make it seem possible. So EB2-I could have been losing much more potential spillover to EB3-ROW (and not to EB3-I).GhostWriter,

That is not how I read the article.

I believe the bulk of porting comes from India, at a level much higher than you have indicated, for several reasons. I won't discuss that.

There certainly is ROW-M-P porting, but I think it is (currently) at a lower level.

Remember that CO really doesn't have any idea of the numbers.

For EB2-ROW / EB2-NIW-ROW (doesn't include M or P) adjusted Trackitt approvals to date, here is the PD year breakdown:

2007 -- 3
2008 -- 1
2009 -- 4
2010 -- 6
2011 - 61
2012 - 22

Total - 97

Some of the 2007 numbers (2) relate to Indians with Cross Chargeability to their spouse.

A further 7 of the cases 2007 through 2010 appear to be porting. Other cases appear to be caused by the long time it took to get PERM and I-140 approval. For some cases,it is not possible to tell due to lack of information.

The 2011 and 2012 PD cases are quite expected.

Hope the figures help.

[GhostWriter]

GhostWriter,

There certainly is ROW-M-P porting, but I think it is (currently) at a lower level.



Spec, below are the EB-WW (EB-ROW-MP) PERM numbers, expected I-485s using these numbers and actual EB2-WW approvals. The difference should be an indicator of porting. While all the PERMs filed in one year don't get GC issued in the same year, but since EB2-WW is current it should be within two years from PD in most cases. The average over years should even out the timing issue.

I have assumed 70% of PERMs filed in EB-WW to be for EB2, 90% approval for I-140 (vs. 80% you assume for EB2-IC analysis) and dependent factor of 2. Also assumed zero demand destruction. This gives an overall factor of 1.26. Even with this factor there is a high gap in expected and actual approvals in EB2-WW for 2011 and 2012. So there is a possibility that there is high EB3-WW to EB2-WW porting at least since last two years.

(Rounded to nearest 1000)
Year---PERM-------Exp.485-----Approvals----Porting
2009---23K---------29K---------33K---------4K (~3.7K)
2010---19K---------24K---------27K---------4K (~3.8K)
2011---18K---------23K---------35K---------12K (~11.6K)
2012---22K---------27K---------34K*---------7K (~7.3K)
Avg.---20K---------26K---------32K---------7K (~6.6K)

* For 2012 approvals number is an estimate assuming no cut-off date were imposed on EB-WW. For 2009-2011 the approvals are actual numbers from the DOS visa reports (link (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_1476.html)).

The average porting estimate then for EB3-WW is 6.6K over last four years and it is 9.5K over last two years !!! Do you have any other explanation for the gap in the above table. 2008 did have a high number of (38K) PERMs for EB-WW but they would have been approved by the end of 2010 (at the latest).

The 100 sample points from Trackitt that you provided are giving us a range of +/- 3500. So if we take 11 cases (out of 9 certain and 5 suspects) as porting cases in your sample of 100 then it is telling us that actual porting number will be contained in the interval 350 to 7350 in total of 35000 approvals (with a fairly high level of certainity). The 7.3K number for 2012 in the table above does fall in your range estimate from Trackitt.

What would be your estimate of EB3-WW porting ?

[suninphx]

Spec, below are the EB-WW (EB-ROW-MP) PERM numbers, expected I-485s using these numbers and actual EB2-WW approvals. The difference should be an indicator of porting. While all the PERMs filed in one year don't get GC issued in the same year, but since EB2-WW is current it should be within two years from PD in most cases. The average over years should even out the timing issue.

I have assumed 70% of PERMs filed in EB-WW to be for EB2, 90% approval for I-140 (vs. 80% you assume for EB2-IC analysis) and dependent factor of 2. Also assumed zero demand destruction. This gives an overall factor of 1.26. Even with this factor there is a high gap in expected and actual approvals in EB2-WW for 2011 and 2012. So there is a possibility that there is high EB3-WW to EB2-WW porting at least since last two years.

(Rounded to nearest 1000)
Year---PERM-------Exp.485-----Approvals----Porting
2009---23K---------29K---------33K---------4K (~3.7K)
2010---19K---------24K---------27K---------4K (~3.8K)
2011---18K---------23K---------35K---------12K (~11.6K)
2012---22K---------27K---------34K---------7K (~7.3K)
Avg.---20K---------26K---------32K---------7K (~6.6K)

The average porting estimate then for EB3-WW is 6.6K over last four years and it is 9.5K over last two years !!! Do you have any other explanation for the gap in the above table. 2008 did have a high number of (38K) PERMs for EB-WW but they would have been approved by the end of 2010 (at the latest).

The 100 sample points from Trackitt that you provided are giving us a range of +/- 3500. So if we take 11 cases (out of 9 certain and 5 suspects) as porting cases in your sample of 100 then it is telling us that actual porting number will be contained in the interval 350 to 7350 in total of 35000 approvals (with a fairly high level of certainity). The 7.3K number for 2012 in the table above does fall in your range estimate from Trackitt.

What would be your estimate of EB3-WW porting ?

EB2WW got 34K visas in 2012? Really? The SOFAD number for EB2IC do not match with above numbers IMO.

[kd2008]

Spec, below are the EB-WW (EB-ROW-MP) PERM numbers, expected I-485s using these numbers and actual EB2-WW approvals. The difference should be an indicator of porting. While all the PERMs filed in one year don't get GC issued in the same year, but since EB2-WW is current it should be within two years from PD in most cases. The average over years should even out the timing issue.

I have assumed 70% of PERMs filed in EB-WW to be for EB2, 90% approval for I-140 (vs. 80% you assume for EB2-IC analysis) and dependent factor of 2. Also assumed zero demand destruction. This gives an overall factor of 1.26. Even with this factor there is a high gap in expected and actual approvals in EB2-WW for 2011 and 2012. So there is a possibility that there is high EB3-WW to EB2-WW porting at least since last two years.

(Rounded to nearest 1000)
Year---PERM-------Exp.485-----Approvals----Porting
2009---23K---------29K---------33K---------4K (~3.7K)
2010---19K---------24K---------27K---------4K (~3.8K)
2011---18K---------23K---------35K---------12K (~11.6K)
2012---22K---------27K---------34K---------7K (~7.3K)
Avg.---20K---------26K---------32K---------7K (~6.6K)

The average porting estimate then for EB3-WW is 6.6K over last four years and it is 9.5K over last two years !!! Do you have any other explanation for the gap in the above table. 2008 did have a high number of (38K) PERMs for EB-WW but they would have been approved by the end of 2010 (at the latest).

The 100 sample points from Trackitt that you provided are giving us a range of +/- 3500. So if we take 11 cases (out of 9 certain and 5 suspects) as porting cases in your sample of 100 then it is telling us that actual porting number will be contained in the interval 350 to 7350 in total of 35000 approvals (with a fairly high level of certainity). The 7.3K number for 2012 in the table above does fall in your range estimate from Trackitt.

What would be your estimate of EB3-WW porting ?

From initial reactions, your theory is wrong. For each and every porting case a new PERM is needed. Since, the PERM #s are consistently low, your theory does not hold. Also, EB3-ROW should show proportional lowering of demand - which it has not. One reason might be NIWs and an Indian interfiling for a different country of chargeability due to marriage to a non-Indian - which could result in larger demand for ROWs, and would bake in some factor of demand destruction for India.

[GhostWriter]

EB2WW got 34K visas in 2012? Really? The SOFAD number for EB2IC do not match with above numbers IMO.

Suninphx, For 2012 EB2WW got about 27K approvals in 9 months (as per Spec's estimate) before a cut off date was imposed. Prorated that would have easily crossed 34K. Alternatively you can add the 4K from the demand data and add another 3K for the people who were not able to file in last three months. Either way if a cut off date was not imposed EB2WW would have used entire 34K allotment. I will edit the post to note this point.
For 2011 the approvals are actual and can be found from the visa report (link (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY11AnnualReport-Table%20V-Part2.pdf)). Total of 67K EB2 approvals of which 32K went to Eb2-IC and 35K to EB2-ROW. EB2-ROW actually used a little spillover in 2011. I haven't even added the CP cases in these approvals but they won't be a lot.


From initial reactions, your theory is wrong. For each and every porting case a new PERM is needed. Since, the PERM #s are consistently low, your theory does not hold. Also, EB3-ROW should show proportional lowering of demand - which it has not. One reason might be NIWs and an Indian interfiling for a different country of chargeability due to marriage to a non-Indian - which could result in larger demand for ROWs, and would bake in some factor of demand destruction for India.

kd, i am only trying to understand the big gap between PERM and I485 for ROW. Can you explain the 19K gap in 2011 and 2012. I agree with you on PERM but the porting cases will not necessarily reduce EB3-WW demand. If these cases are post 2007 then they would not have filed I-485 yet in EB3. Is your alternate theory an increase in inter-country marriages in last two years ?

[kd2008]

Suninphx, For 2012 EB2WW got about 27K approvals in 9 months (as per Spec's estimate) before a cut off date was imposed. Prorated that would have easily crossed 34K. Alternatively you can add the 4K from the demand data and add another 3K for the people who were not able to file in last three months. Either way if a cut off date was not imposed EB2WW would have used entire 34K allotment. I will edit the post to note this point.
For 2011 the approvals are actual and can be found from the visa report (link (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY11AnnualReport-Table%20V-Part2.pdf)). Total of 67K EB2 approvals of which 32K went to Eb2-IC and 35K to EB2-ROW. EB2-ROW actually used a little spillover in 2011. I haven't even added the CP cases in these approvals but they won't be a lot.



kd, i am only trying to understand the big gap between PERM and I485 for ROW. Can you explain the 19K gap in 2011 and 2012. I agree with you on PERM but the porting cases will not necessarily reduce EB3-WW demand. If these cases are post 2007 then they would not have filed I-485 yet in EB3. Is your alternate theory an increase in inter-country marriages in last two years ?

PERM and I-485 are not necessarily approved or adjudicated in the same calendar year or fiscal year they are filed. 2010 and 2011 saw faster PERM approvals and subsequently reduction in PERM backlogs. This resulted in higher visa demand and I-485 approvals for 2011 and 2012. The ripples just continue on. End of fiscal year 2012 saw retrogression for EB2-ROW so there will be higher demand in fiscal year 2013. And so it goes on.

If we get a full 2 years of consistent PERM processing, quick I485 approvals and no retrogression for EB2-ROW with low PERM numbers to begin with and if we still see high demand then something is up.

[Spectator]

Is out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5803.html

No change for EB2-I

EB2-C advances to 22OCT07.

No forecasts in the VB, unfortunately.

UPDATE:

A forecast has now been added.

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

FAMILY-sponsored categories (monthly)

Worldwide dates:
F1: three or four weeks
F2A: four to six weeks
F2B: three to five weeks
F3: one or two weeks
F4: one or two weeks

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (monthly)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China: five to eight weeks
India: no movement

Employment Third:

Worldwide: three to five weeks
China: one to two months
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: three to five weeks
Philippines: one to three weeks

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current*

*The following advisory is based strictly on the current demand situation. Since demand patterns can (and sometimes do) change over time, this should be considered a worst case scenario at this point.

It appears likely that a cut-off date will need to be established for the China Employment Fifth preference category at some point during second half of fiscal year 2013. Such action would be delayed as long as possible, since while number use may be excessive over a 1 to 5 month period, it could average out to an acceptable level over a longer (e.g., 4 to 9 month) period. This would be the first time a cut-off date has been established in this category, which is why readers are being provided with the maximum amount of advance notice regarding the possibility.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories are for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables which can change at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future, with the possible exception of the China Employment Fifth preference category mentioned above.

[abcx13]

This has been true for a while, and others might have pointed out this idiosyncrasy before, but EB2I is now behind EB3-ROW. Just wonderful...

[bookworm]

Looks like this year CO is going to err on the side of caution and waste some visa #'s.

[Spectator]

Looks like this year CO is going to err on the side of caution and waste some visa #'s.Err on the side of caution - yes. Waste visas - unlikely.

CO experimented with releasing spillover early last year (perhaps prompted by the need to move the COD forward) and it was an abysmal failure.

He seems to have returned to the normal pattern of releasing spillover relatively late in the FY.

Judging by USCIS ability to process cases last year, they seem quite capable of approving all potential spillover visas in a single month if required, especially as they are now pretty much all pre-adjudicated.

[bookworm]

Err on the side of caution - yes. Waste visas - unlikely.

CO experimented with releasing spillover early last year (perhaps prompted by the need to move the COD forward) and it was an abysmal failure.

He seems to have returned to the normal pattern of releasing spillover relatively late in the FY.

Judging by USCIS ability to process cases last year, they seem quite capable of approving all potential spillover visas in a single month if required, especially as they are now pretty much all pre-adjudicated.

I missed the pre-adjudicated part in my thought process. Keeping my fingers crossed for the last qtr of this fiscal.

[sbhagwat2000]

They did not release the demand data. Any reason you think why that would be the case? Isint demand data released every month

[Spectator]

They did not release the demand data. Any reason you think why that would be the case? Isint demand data released every monthThere has been the odd month when it hasn't been published.

It's very annoying.

[Spectator]

I have been trying to think about EB2-WW.

I just wanted to talk out loud, since it seems we're going to see quite uneven approvals through the FY.

To date we have seen the effect of retrogression for July through September 2012.

In October and November, those cases already submitted and adjudicated are now being approved. To date, that backlog looks to be about 7k and approvals seem to be slowing.

The other aspect is that for July through October, nobody has had a chance to submit an EB2-WW I-485, if we say that all pre 2012 PD cases had already submitted an I-485.

So, when the backlog is dealt with, there is likely to be a few months when there won't be many EB2-WW approvals.

Normally, assuming a 4-6 month adjudication time, cases that would normally have been submitted in July - October 2012 should be approved in the November 2012 - April 2013 period.

However, the earliest these could be submitted was actually November 2012, so they will likely be approved from March 2013 onwards. At this time, the number of approvals are likely to be very large, but it does seem to leave the possibility of a very slow period from December 2012 through February 2013.

It leaves approvals front and back loaded.

Possibly USCIS will try to adjudicate them faster, as they did for EB2-IC last year. However, 3 months seemed to be the quickest they could generally be dealt with.

Alternatively, USCIS may try to concentrate on other Categories during this "slack" period.

Knowing this, it may make it even more difficult for CO to consider releasing spillover early.

[kkruna]

Demand data

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[sbhagwat2000]

I have been trying to think about EB2-WW.

I just wanted to talk out loud, since it seems we're going to see quite uneven approvals through the FY.

To date we have seen the effect of retrogression for July through September 2012.

In October and November, those cases already submitted and adjudicated are now being approved. To date, that backlog looks to be about 7k and approvals seem to be slowing.

The other aspect is that for July through October, nobody has had a chance to submit an EB2-WW I-485, if we say that all pre 2012 PD cases had already submitted an I-485.

So, when the backlog is dealt with, there is likely to be a few months when there won't be many EB2-WW approvals.

Normally, assuming a 4-6 month adjudication time, cases that would normally have been submitted in July - October 2012 should be approved in the November 2012 - April 2013 period.

However, the earliest these could be submitted was actually November 2012, so they will likely be approved from March 2013 onwards. At this time, the number of approvals are likely to be very large, but it does seem to leave the possibility of a very slow period from December 2012 through February 2013.

It leaves approvals front and back loaded.

Possibly USCIS will try to adjudicate them faster, as they did for EB2-IC last year. However, 3 months seemed to be the quickest they could generally be dealt with.

Alternatively, USCIS may try to concentrate on other Categories during this "slack" period.

Knowing this, it may make it even more difficult for CO to consider releasing spillover early.

Thats good analysis makes sense. To add to that I think and correct me if I am wrong - In that same time period where EB2 WW is going to go up I think EB2 I approvals would be less than what they are today as they would have worked through the demand that they could not clear from 2012 for applications before sept 2004. At that time it would be the normal monthly intefiling requests and not what we have today which is - Normal interfiling requests + those that were not worked on when the dates were U. So may be just may be dates for EB2 I may move some in second quarter.

[srimurthy]

The Visa bulletin is also out and no change in dates:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5803.html

[imdeng]

So the total EB2I inventory (from Demand Data) increased by 2100. Following is the breakdown in the increase:


PD in 2006 and before: +200
PD in 2007 and before: +600, -Differential for 2007 PDs: +400
PD in 2008 and before: +1100, Differential for 2008 PDs: +500
PD in 2009 and before: +1775, Differential for 2009 PDs: +675
PD in 2010 and before: +2100, Differential for 2010 PDs: +325

So, assuming that any changes in PDs in 2008 onwards is because of Pre-Adj - then it tells us that the increase of 1500 is due to Pre-Adj. Anything before PD in 2007 is surely a porting case - thats 200. Parts of 2007 PD can be porting as well - lets say half of it. Then we have 400 additions due to porting and 1700 due to new Pre-Adj. Now, we don't know whether any visas were issued during the month. If yes - then all of that would have gone to porting applications. If, for example, the monthly quota of 250 was issued - then we get total additions due to porting to 650 and due to Pre-Adj to 1700.

No movement in Dec VB is sad (what a difference an year makes - we were all flying high this time last year) and disappointing. The potential porting numbers are quite problematic. But, at least, we can take heart in the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW is current - so I guess we are accumulating spillovers every month - which will be available to us later in the FY barring an increase in EB1/EB2WW demand.

[imdeng]

Doing the similar analysis for EB3I Demand Data - this time looking at reduction in numbers:

PD in 2002 or before: -250
PD in 2003 or before: -425, Differential for 2003 PDs: -175
PD in 2004 or before: -575, Differential for 2004 PDs: -150
PD in 2005 or before: -650, Differential for 2005 PDs: -75
PD in 2006 or before: -800, Differential for 2006 PDs: -150
PD in 2007 or before: -850, Differential for 2007 PDs: -50

Assuming that the 250 reduction in 2002 PD is due to regular visa issue, the rest (600) can be chalked up to porting. This compares well to the 650 estimate we have for porting using EB2I Demand Data. So may be 600-650 is a good estimate for monthly porting volume?

Only the 2006PD porting volume of 150 stands out as unusual. The rest of the numbers seem reasonable.


So the total EB2I inventory (from Demand Data) increased by 2100. Following is the breakdown in the increase:


PD in 2006 and before: +200
PD in 2007 and before: +600, -Differential for 2007 PDs: +400
PD in 2008 and before: +1100, Differential for 2008 PDs: +500
PD in 2009 and before: +1775, Differential for 2009 PDs: +675
PD in 2010 and before: +2100, Differential for 2010 PDs: +325

So, assuming that any changes in PDs in 2008 onwards is because of Pre-Adj - then it tells us that the increase of 1500 is due to Pre-Adj. Anything before PD in 2007 is surely a porting case - thats 200. Parts of 2007 PD can be porting as well - lets say half of it. Then we have 400 additions due to porting and 1700 due to new Pre-Adj. Now, we don't know whether any visas were issued during the month. If yes - then all of that would have gone to porting applications. If, for example, the monthly quota of 250 was issued - then we get total additions due to porting to 650 and due to Pre-Adj to 1700.

No movement in Dec VB is sad (what a difference an year makes - we were all flying high this time last year) and disappointing. The potential porting numbers are quite problematic. But, at least, we can take heart in the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW is current - so I guess we are accumulating spillovers every month - which will be available to us later in the FY barring an increase in EB1/EB2WW demand.

[abcx13]

Doing the similar analysis for EB3I Demand Data - this time looking at reduction in numbers:

PD in 2002 or before: -250
PD in 2003 or before: -425, Differential for 2003 PDs: -175
PD in 2004 or before: -575, Differential for 2004 PDs: -150
PD in 2005 or before: -650, Differential for 2005 PDs: -75
PD in 2006 or before: -800, Differential for 2006 PDs: -150
PD in 2007 or before: -850, Differential for 2007 PDs: -50

Assuming that the 250 reduction in 2002 PD is due to regular visa issue, the rest (600) can be chalked up to porting. This compares well to the 650 estimate we have for porting using EB2I Demand Data. So may be 600-650 is a good estimate for monthly porting volume?

Only the 2006PD porting volume of 150 stands out as unusual. The rest of the numbers seem reasonable.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this doesn't count anyone with a post 2007 EB3 PD that would be porting, right?

[imdeng]

There can't be any EB3I with PD beyond the 07/07 event in the Demand Data. EB3Is are not being pre-adjuducated like EB2I filings.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this doesn't count anyone with a post 2007 EB3 PD that would be porting, right?

[abcx13]

There can't be any EB3I with PD beyond the 07/07 event in the Demand Data. EB3Is are not being pre-adjuducated like EB2I filings.

Couldn't they directly show up in the EB2 demand data with a post-July 07 PD though?

[imdeng]

AFAIK, Demand Data only shows cases that are Documentarily Qualified for a visa. So no - post-July'07 cases will not show in DD unless they have been Pre-Adj'ed.

Couldn't they directly show up in the EB2 demand data with a post-July 07 PD though?

[Spectator]

So the total EB2I inventory (from Demand Data) increased by 2100. Following is the breakdown in the increase:


PD in 2006 and before: +200
PD in 2007 and before: +600, -Differential for 2007 PDs: +400
PD in 2008 and before: +1100, Differential for 2008 PDs: +500
PD in 2009 and before: +1775, Differential for 2009 PDs: +675
PD in 2010 and before: +2100, Differential for 2010 PDs: +325

So, assuming that any changes in PDs in 2008 onwards is because of Pre-Adj - then it tells us that the increase of 1500 is due to Pre-Adj. Anything before PD in 2007 is surely a porting case - thats 200. Parts of 2007 PD can be porting as well - lets say half of it. Then we have 400 additions due to porting and 1700 due to new Pre-Adj. Now, we don't know whether any visas were issued during the month. If yes - then all of that would have gone to porting applications. If, for example, the monthly quota of 250 was issued - then we get total additions due to porting to 650 and due to Pre-Adj to 1700.

No movement in Dec VB is sad (what a difference an year makes - we were all flying high this time last year) and disappointing. The potential porting numbers are quite problematic. But, at least, we can take heart in the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW is current - so I guess we are accumulating spillovers every month - which will be available to us later in the FY barring an increase in EB1/EB2WW demand.imdeng,

As you say, it is a net increase of 200 for cases before 2007.

By my calculations, about 700 porting cases were approved between the Demand Data publications.

That would put the gross increase at 900 cases for the month. I think the number is high because those cases with a pre September 2004 PD from when EB2-I was Unavailable are now having the final interfiling steps completed and a visa can be requested.

Currently there are 1,300 cases shown in the Demand data before 2007. My calculations show 900-950 porting cases already approved, so the total known about is therefore 2,200-2,250 at present.

Using Teddy's 500 cases per month for the remaining 10 months would add a further 5,000 and bring the total to around 7,250.

I really don't know what the true number will be, but I think it is in the right ball bark. There were about 1.3k cases already in previous figures. If that was normal backlog, the net number would be about 6k.

There will only be so many Porting cases per PD year, so to a certain extent, slow or no movement will constrain the numbers that can actually be approved. I have no idea what the number per PD year is.

Having said all the above, I could equally be totally wrong, but I thought I would share.

[abcx13]

AFAIK, Demand Data only shows cases that are Documentarily Qualified for a visa. So no - post-July'07 cases will not show in DD unless they have been Pre-Adj'ed.

I don't understand - let's say you had an EB3 I140 approved post July 2007 but then didn't get to file I485. You then got a new PERM and had an EB2 I140 approved in 2008, 2009 or whenever. Now this EB2 application could be pre-adjudicated and would still show up in EB2 demand data but with a post-July 2007 PD. This would still be porting but I think your math is not counting this.

[openaccount]

imdeng,


Currently there are 1,300 cases shown in the Demand data before 2007. My calculations show 900-950 porting cases already approved, so the total known about is therefore 2,200-2,250 at present.

Using Teddy's 500 cases per month for the remaining 10 months would add a further 5,000 and bring the total to around 7,250.

I really don't know what the true number will be, but I think it is in the right ball bark. There were about 1.3k cases already in previous figures. If that was normal backlog, the net number would be about 6k.

There will only be so many Porting cases per PD year, so to a certain extent, slow or no movement will constrain the numbers that can actually be approved. I have no idea what the number per PD year is.

Having said all the above, I could equally be totally wrong, but I thought I would share.

Spec if 6k is just for Pds prior to Sep2004, as dates move(when ever that happens) porting will be proportional for those years(post Sep2004). As interfiling does not take much time when PD is current they will be eventually added to DD which would pull PD further behind.

[sbhagwat2000]

imdeng,

As you say, it is a net increase of 200 for cases before 2007.

By my calculations, about 700 porting cases were approved between the Demand Data publications.

That would put the gross increase at 900 cases for the month. I think the number is high because those cases with a pre September 2004 PD from when EB2-I was Unavailable are now having the final interfiling steps completed and a visa can be requested.

Currently there are 1,300 cases shown in the Demand data before 2007. My calculations show 900-950 porting cases already approved, so the total known about is therefore 2,200-2,250 at present.

Using Teddy's 500 cases per month for the remaining 10 months would add a further 5,000 and bring the total to around 7,250.

I really don't know what the true number will be, but I think it is in the right ball bark. There were about 1.3k cases already in previous figures. If that was normal backlog, the net number would be about 6k.

There will only be so many Porting cases per PD year, so to a certain extent, slow or no movement will constrain the numbers that can actually be approved. I have no idea what the number per PD year is.

Having said all the above, I could equally be totally wrong, but I thought I would share.

Spec,

I think your number of 900 may be high. The reason is this - When dates were U the interfiling requests made would have been added to the DD by USCIS. So when they released the DD for october the interfilings made in the months prior when dates were U should have been in the DD. The DD in october had 1350 as the number before 2007. If the number is 900 then the DD for october would have reflected that. It would have been a much bigger number than 1350. I think and this is just my guess - as they finish processing the interfiling requests made last fiscal that is - between june and sept 2012 - they will move the dates. That may be sometime next quarter.

[Kanmani]

Spec,

I think your number of 900 may be high. The reason is this - When dates were U the interfiling requests made would have been added to the DD by USCIS. So when they released the DD for october the interfilings made in the months prior when dates were U should have been in the DD. The DD in october had 1350 as the number before 2007. If the number is 900 then the DD for october would have reflected that. It would have been a much bigger number than 1350. I think and this is just my guess - as they finish processing the interfiling requests made last fiscal that is - between june and sept 2012 - they will move the dates. That may be sometime next quarter.

bhagwat, Interfiling requests are not allowed if the dates are U/retrogressed. Priority Dates must be current .

[sbhagwat2000]

bhagwat, Interfiling requests are not allowed if the dates are U/retrogressed. Priority Dates must be current .

Are you sure about it? Cause if you look at the trackitt trackers for interfiling I see interfiling letters to link cases being sent in august and sept and being acted upon by USCIS. If they are linking cases when dates are U then they must be added to the DD. Also if what you are saying is true then all increases before 2007 would be due to pre 2004 requests. is that correct? since post 2005 is not current.

You may be right here - But I posed the same question to Ron Gotcher and he replied that cases between May and Sept when dates were U were interlinked then and added to DD -

Me - Hi Ron,

The upgrade cases that u are talking abt in the case where the applicant has a pending 485 I guess you are talking abt interfling right? On an average how fast are those cases added to the demand data. There must be lots of 485 interfiling requests backed up between May and October right? When do you expect to see them in the demand data. Also how much demand do you think will be consumed by porting cases pre 2007 and how much Spillover and fall down are you expecting this year considering that demand for EB1 and EB 2 WW has increased

Ron - When a case gets upgraded, the USCIS is supposed to report the new demand to the Visa Office and that number is added to the demand data. If there is a time lag, it is probably on the order of one or two months from the time the applicant makes the request until the time they do the upgrade. What is unknown presently is how quickly the USCIS takes the EB3 numbers off the board. Some of us suspect that they aren't doing this and the EB3 backlog is falsely inflated.

Me - Thanks for clarifying this. So this means that theoretically even if the dates were U between May and October most or at least some of the interfiling requests that have been made post May have been added to the demand data already. right?

Ron - Yes, that is correct.

[Kanmani]

bhagwat, Please refer to my earlier post in this context here ....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=27904#post27904

[sbhagwat2000]

bhagwat, Please refer to my earlier post in this context here ....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=27904#post27904

Makes sense. Thanks for this info.

[Spectator]

Are you sure about it? Cause if you look at the trackitt trackers for interfiling I see interfiling letters to link cases being sent in august and sept and being acted upon by USCIS. If they are linking cases when dates are U then they must be added to the DD. Also if what you are saying is true then all increases before 2007 would be due to pre 2004 requests. is that correct? since post 2005 is not current.

You may be right here - But I posed the same question to Ron Gotcher and he replied that cases between May and Sept when dates were U were interlinked then and added to DD -

Me - Hi Ron,

The upgrade cases that u are talking abt in the case where the applicant has a pending 485 I guess you are talking abt interfling right? On an average how fast are those cases added to the demand data. There must be lots of 485 interfiling requests backed up between May and October right? When do you expect to see them in the demand data. Also how much demand do you think will be consumed by porting cases pre 2007 and how much Spillover and fall down are you expecting this year considering that demand for EB1 and EB 2 WW has increased

Ron - When a case gets upgraded, the USCIS is supposed to report the new demand to the Visa Office and that number is added to the demand data. If there is a time lag, it is probably on the order of one or two months from the time the applicant makes the request until the time they do the upgrade. What is unknown presently is how quickly the USCIS takes the EB3 numbers off the board. Some of us suspect that they aren't doing this and the EB3 backlog is falsely inflated.

Me - Thanks for clarifying this. So this means that theoretically even if the dates were U between May and October most or at least some of the interfiling requests that have been made post May have been added to the demand data already. right?

Ron - Yes, that is correct.Here's my understanding.

The AFM clearly says that interfiling can only be completed when the PD for EB2 is Current.

As far as I am aware, the only means for USCIS to update DOS is by requesting a visa for the case through the IVAMS system (Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System).

If the PD is Current the visa is issued immediately, otherwise it is added to the Demand Data.

When people send their interfiling letters, USCIS can consolidate the A-file with all the information.

If the PD for EB2 is not Current for the case, USCIS cannot complete the interfiling and request a visa.

Therefore it is difficult to see how these cases can be part of the Demand Data.

In contrast, a normal (non porting) EB2 can only have an I-485 if the date was current at some time, no interfiling is involved and the visa request can be made when it is pre-adjudicated.

Unless, USCIS and DOS have some other communication method, which seems unlikely given CO has said he doesn't know how much "upgrading" there is, then it is difficult to see how the cases with a PD of 01SEP04 or later that became ready to interfile since EB2-I became Unavailable in June 2012 can be included in the Demand Data.

[sbhagwat2000]

Here's my understanding.

The AFM clearly says that interfiling can only be completed when the PD for EB2 is Current.

As far as I am aware, the only means for USCIS to update DOS is by requesting a visa for the case through the IVAMS system (Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System).

If the PD is Current the visa is issued immediately, otherwise it is added to the Demand Data.

When people send their interfiling letters, USCIS can consolidate the A-file with all the information.

If the PD for EB2 is not Current for the case, USCIS cannot complete the interfiling and request a visa.

Therefore it is difficult to see how these cases can be part of the Demand Data.

In contrast, a normal (non porting) EB2 can only have an I-485 if the date was current at some time, no interfiling is involved and the visa request can be made when it is pre-adjudicated.

Unless, USCIS and DOS have some other communication method, which seems unlikely given CO has said he doesn't know how much "upgrading" there is, then it is difficult to see how the cases with a PD of 01SEP04 or later that became ready to interfile since EB2-I became Unavailable in June 2012 can be included in the Demand Data.

Thanks Spec - I see the light now. So a couple of more questions -

1. So this means the increase in DD that we have seen pre 2007 is all cause of interfilings completed for pre sept 2004 requests right?

2. Can DOS assign more visas than allowed per month? As you are saying they approved 900 applications - can they assign more than 250 visa numbers?

3. If the numbers you are talking about are true then actually EB2I will be U next quarter as 2800 will be filled up quickly only by pre sept 2004 numbers.

4. Do you think we will see less numbers pre sept 2004 as USCIS works through what would have been essentially last fiscal's approvals

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec - I see the light now. So a couple of more questions -

1. So this means the increase in DD that we have seen pre 2007 is all cause of interfilings completed for pre sept 2004 requests right?

Until I see evidence to the contrary, I have to assume so. For instance, if there is a big increase in the numbers for 2005-2006 in the next Demand Data, it would indicate that cases later than the Cut Off Date are being pre-adjudicated and a visa requested. Those would have to be mainly porting cases and it would answer the question.

2. Can DOS assign more visas than allowed per month? As you are saying they approved 900 applications - can they assign more than 250 visa numbers?

The constraint is 27% of ALL EB visas per quarter, which is 37,800 visas. There is nothing to stop over allocation in a particular Category if the total remains within the limit. For instance, EB1 is quite low at present.

3. If the numbers you are talking about are true then actually EB2I will be U next quarter as 2800 will be filled up quickly only by pre sept 2004 numbers.

Not necessarily. I doubt 2.8k will be reached by the end of Q1. Also, there is nothing to stop CO releasing some spillover if he is so inclined.

4. Do you think we will see less numbers pre sept 2004 as USCIS works through what would have been essentially last fiscal's approvals

Yes. There is already evidence of that. In October, there were 40 Trackitt approvals in EB2-I. So far in November, there have only been 4.Answers in-line.

[Spectator]

I thought it might be useful to occasionally post the Trackitt approvals by PD as both EB2-I and EB2-WW go through a period following retrogression.

Since EB2-P and EB2-M data is not very reliable, I have only shown EB2-ROW data.

The figures include EB2-NIW.

EB2-ROW

PD -------- 2007 -- 2008 -- 2009 -- 2010 -- 2011 -- 2012 -- Total
October ------ 3 ----- 1 ----- 3 ----- 3 --- 58 ------ 0 ----- 68
November ----- 2 ----- 2 ----- 2 ----- 4 --- 11 ----- 39 ----- 60
Total -------- 5 ----- 3 ----- 5 ----- 7 --- 69 ----- 39 ---- 128

About a further 150 EB2-ROW cases and 50 EB2-NIW-ROW cases with PD of 2011 or 2012 remain pending on Trackitt. Not all will ever be updated. Nonetheless, the number is substantial.

EB2-I

PD -------- 2001 -- 2002 -- 2003 -- 2004 -- Total
October ------ 2 ----- 2 ---- 21 ---- 15 ----- 40
November ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 1 ----- 1 ------ 4
Total -------- 2 ----- 4 ---- 22 ---- 16 ----- 44


These figures are dynamic so will change quite quickly.

[qesehmk]

Happy Diwali to everybody and Happy New Year as well.

Wishing you and your families all the best in health wealth and wisdom this new year - and of course a speedy GC as well.

[Kanmani]

Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/FY%202013%20EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2010_4_2012.pd f

[openaccount]

Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/FY%202013%20EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2010_4_2012.pd f

Thanks Kanmani. Finally after 6months

Fy2013 started with
EB1---14k pending
EB2WW---15.5K pending

From this one thing is sure EB1&EB2WW are going to consume at least 30K(minimum) in first 4-6 months in FY2013

[Spectator]

Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/FY%202013%20EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2010_4_2012.pd fThank you Kanmani.

[sbhagwat2000]

SOFAD will be no where near 13000 predicted by Murthy after going through this inventory. Gurus any thoughts

[immi2910]

Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/FY%202013%20EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2010_4_2012.pd f

Comparing it with last inventory report for EB2I:
Year : Oct 2012 - Apr 2012
2003 : 43
2004 : 183
2005 : 220
2006 : 256
2007 : 238
2008 : 761
2009 : 770
2010 : 339

I am guessing most of the increase years prior to 2007 is due to porting. Thus, in 6 months since April there have been 940 (43+183+220+256+238) additional cases. Assuming all them are from porting it points to ~2000 Porting cases in a year, which is considerably less than ~4K to 6K numbers that I see in this forum. What am I missing.

[Spectator]

For EB2-I

Year ---- Demand -- Inventory -- Difference
Pre 2007 - 1,300 ------ 1,884 --------- 584
2007 ----- 5,100 ------ 5,142 ---------- 42
2008 ---- 15,975 ----- 15,897 --------- (78)
2009 ---- 12,700 ----- 14,199 ------- 1,499
2010 ----- 4,225 ------ 5,251 ------- 1,026

Total -- 39,300 ------ 42,373 ------- 3,073

[immi2910]

SOFAD will be no where near 13000 predicted by Murthy after going through this inventory. Gurus any thoughts

EB2 WW for June 2012 was 2,698!!! After June no one could file. So, if the trend continues for EB2 WW then we can expect ~40K (2700*15) applications that will be filed by Oct 2013. Assuming its takes 3 months to approve USCIS will approve ~32.5 K applications. So, I doubt EB2 WW will yield anything. It will all boil down to other categories but I doubt we will see 13K. Moreover, taking porting into account we will be lucky to get past 2007 by Sep 2013.

[openaccount]

For EB2-I

Year ---- Demand -- Inventory -- Difference
Pre 2007 - 1,300 ------ 1,884 --------- 584
2007 ----- 5,100 ------ 5,142 ---------- 42
2008 ---- 15,975 ----- 15,897 --------- (78)
2009 ---- 12,700 ----- 14,199 ------- 1,499
2010 ----- 4,225 ------ 5,251 ------- 1,026

Total -- 39,300 ------ 42,373 ------- 3,073

Spec, based on 485-pending inventory(14k) and trackitt approvals(61) for EB1 so far in FY2013 what is your projection for EB1 usage this year.
I know it is too early to estimate, but wanted to know your rough estimate EB1 is going to use this year based on the data we have now.

[Spectator]

Spec, based on 485-pending inventory(14k) and trackitt approvals(61) for EB1 so far in FY2013 what is your projection for EB1 usage this year.
I know it is too early to estimate, but wanted to know your rough estimate EB1 is going to use this year based on the data we have now.openaccount,

In truth, I don't find the USCIS Inventory numbers very useful for EB1. They are slightly lower, but in the same ball park as the last two Inventories.

I'd like to see the actual EB1 figures for last year to make my mind up.

Currently I am still using the old I-140 EB1 figures for Receipts, Approvals and Denials for 2010 and part of 2011 from July 2011 as the basis for estimating EB1. Nothing has been published since then and approvals are now beyond the time frame they would have covered.

On the basis that EB1 Receipt numbers have not reduced (which is probably likely) and Approval/Denial ratios have remained the same for each of EB1A, EB1B and EB1C, then I am working on a best case figure of 35k for my calculations.

The EB2-WW figures make it comparatively less likely that they will contribute to spillover and it is not a 100% bet that EB2-WW will not use some of any available spillover from EB1.

EB4 is a dark horse - again, I would like to see last year's actual figures.

I think we can write off EB5 as a source of spillover this year.

At this point, it is difficult to see EB2-IC getting more than the 13k mentioned by CO as a best case.

[openaccount]

openaccount,

In truth, I don't find the USCIS Inventory numbers very useful for EB1. They are slightly lower, but in the same ball park as the last two Inventories.

I'd like to see the actual EB1 figures for last year to make my mind up.

Currently I am still using the old I-140 EB1 figures for Receipts, Approvals and Denials for 2010 and part of 2011 from July 2011 as the basis for estimating EB1. Nothing has been published since then and approvals are now beyond the time frame they would have covered.

On the basis that EB1 Receipt numbers have not reduced (which is probably likely) and Approval/Denial ratios have remained the same for each of EB1A, EB1B and EB1C, then I am working on a best case figure of 35k for my calculations.

The EB2-WW figures make it comparatively less likely that they will contribute to spillover and it is not a 100% bet that EB2-WW will not use some of any available spillover from EB1.

EB4 is a dark horse - again, I would like to see last year's actual figures.

I think we can write off EB5 as a source of spillover this year.

At this point, it is difficult to see EB2-IC getting more than the 13k mentioned by CO as a best case.

Thanks Spec.
With 3-5K SO Eb2I would barely cross Aug2007 in 2013, it might end at April2007 in Fy2013(coincidentally FY2011 started with Apr2007).

[sbhagwat2000]

Can someone please clarify how to read the inventory data. Do the increase in the applications for the years before 2007 which are porting applications from the last inventory include all months from May to October or are they only from May 3rd to the end of May when dates became U. So for example is the increase from ~ 200 applications in the last inventory for 2004 to 450 now reflect all applications (interfiling letters) from May to october? Also are these all applications pending or only primary applicant applications?

[DonDron]

Thanks Spec.
With 3-5K SO Eb2I would barely cross Aug2007 in 2013, it might end at April2007 in Fy2013(coincidentally FY2011 started with Apr2007).

Hi Openaccount, Spec is talking about 13K SO. Why are you considering only 3-5K SO?

[goforgreen]

Thanks Spec.
With 3-5K SO Eb2I would barely cross Aug2007 in 2013, it might end at April2007 in Fy2013(coincidentally FY2011 started with Apr2007).

FY 2012 started at Apr 2007 and finished with U. Also with 3-5K SO and 2800 of quota I dont think it will end at Apr 2007. Q and other Gurus who have done number crunching have been maintaining it will be much later than that and into 2008, I hope that prediction turns true. Remember till Apr 2007 was already cleared in 2011. And in 2013 all SO will be first used by India as China will move with their own quota.

[Spectator]

Hi Openaccount, Spec is talking about 13K SO. Why are you considering only 3-5K SO?DonDron,

I was talking about CO's best case of 13k in total (SOFAD) for EB2-IC - not spillover of 13k.

That translates to 7.4k spillover.

[DonDron]

Ok. Still better than 3-5k. So best case scenario (and with straight assumptions) comes down to early 2008 for EB2-I. Which is what CO had said. So nothing new I am saying I guess.

[qesehmk]

Friends - November donations made to Red Cross towards victims of Sandy. Thread updated - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=3382#post3382

[justvisiting]

The June peak for EB2 Worldwide coincides with the last month before it retrogressed. I think what happened is a lot of applicants/lawyers moved quickly on NIW applications to make sure they got in before retrogression. This should even out going forward. The current PERM trends do not support such a high level of EB2-WW going forward, and there aren't that many NIW cases either.

[pspa80]

Hello folks,

The prospects for hiring seem to be duller than last year (at least at this point in time) with the fiscal cliff looming on one side and obamacare/divided government etc on the other side.

Do you think there is a possibility that the amount of Spill Over to EB2I can be greater than anticipated if hiring slows down because of the aformentioned factors?

Thanks

[qesehmk]

Thanks Kanmani. Header Updated with my take on 2013 predictions.


Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/FY%202013%20EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2010_4_2012.pd f

[sbhagwat2000]

Can we believe in the inventory figures? It shows increases for the years 2008 - 2010 from the may figures. Hows that possible when dates were not current. Another reason is it shows an increase in pre 2007 applications the porting applications by about 900 since may. If thats true then from May to October porting has been 900 which if you annualized it would be around 2000 way below reality. Spec or others any insight into this? Do you think we can believe the Eb2 I numbers

[Spectator]

Can we believe in the inventory figures? It shows increases for the years 2008 - 2010 from the may figures. Hows that possible when dates were not current. Another reason is it shows an increase in pre 2007 applications the porting applications by about 900 since may. If thats true then from May to October porting has been 900 which if you annualized it would be around 2000 way below reality. Spec or others any insight into this? Do you think we can believe the Eb2 I numbersI'm not sure why you think that wouldn't happen.

As of May 3, 2012 ( the Inventory Date), the period when the Cut Off Dates had been at 01MAY10 had only just finished (3 days). USCIS certainly would not have processed all the cases at that time. I would be more surprised by how little the 2008-2010 figures have risen, given USCIS seem incapable of doing anything remotely real time.

There was then a further month (all of May) when the Cut Off Dates were at 15AUG07 before dates became Unavailable.

[sbhagwat2000]

I'm not sure why you think that wouldn't happen.

As of May 3, 2012 ( the Inventory Date), the period when the Cut Off Dates had been at 01MAY10 had only just finished (3 days). USCIS certainly would not have processed all the cases at that time. I would be more surprised by how little the 2008-2010 figures have risen, given USCIS seem incapable of doing anything remotely real time.

There was then a further month (all of May) when the Cut Off Dates were at 15AUG07 before dates became Unavailable.

Yes but what abt the porting number. The increase in 900 captures all the months from May to October right since people would have still sent interfile letters to USCIS and they must have added that to the EB2I Queue

[Kanmani]

Yes but what abt the porting number. The increase in 900 captures all the months from May to October right since people would have still sent interfile letters to USCIS and they must have added that to the EB2I Queue

When you notice Jan inventory published in February captured just 10% of January filers . Whenever doors are open for filing they take time to add or delete the inventory numbers. Porting is even more difficult to bring it in to the inventory on time.

Those 900 approx applicants i guess might have filed between may to june 1st (excluded in the may inventory)

Bhagwat, is there any chance you misunderstood reading the inventory ? 2006 column jan to dec rows represents the Priority dates of the applicants falling on that particular months . If you are correct then your question is confusing.

[sbhagwat2000]

When you notice Jan inventory published in February captured just 10% of January filers . Whenever doors are open for filing they take time to add or delete the inventory numbers. Porting is even more difficult to bring it in to the inventory on time.

Those 900 approx applicants i guess might have filed between may to june 1st (excluded in the may inventory)

agreed about porting. But its difficult to add porting cases when dates are current and they are closed. Now the dates were U hence any porting case would have been added correctly. Most who sent an interfile letter between end of may and october 4 would/should have made it to the inventory since those cases were not acted upon and closed

[Kanmani]

The cut off date was 15 Aug 2007 in the month of May'12. Why do you think those cases were added between june to october?

[sbhagwat2000]

The cut off date was 15 Aug 2007 in the month of May'12. Why do you think those cases were added between june to october?

I am not saying they were added between june and oct. i am saying people with pd < 2007 who would have got their 140s approved when dates were U would have sent interfile letters. and USCIS must have added those cases to the inventory.

[GhostWriter]

Below is a rough (and conservative) estimate for spillover from EB1 based on the inventory data.

1. For EB1 cases, as we all know, either I140 and I485 can be filed concurrently or separately. From Trackitt it appears that about 60% (+/- 3%) of the cases are filed concurrently (combined across EB1-A, B and C categories. Separately the ratios vary and are around 80% for EB1-C and 32% for EB1-A with EB1-B in the middle).

2. Let us say all the cases that the inventory shows under PD of July and August 2012 are concurrent cases (very likely). The total is 3304 cases with average of 1652 cases per month. These then represent 60% of the cases filed in these two months (the rest of the cases filed in these two months will be under older PDs). So a total of 2753 cases (1652 / 0.6) per month are being filed under EB1 on average. There shouldn't have been a lot of approvals for concurrent cases filed in July/August 2012 by the time inventory was published in October 2012.

3. If 12 months worth of applications are approved every year then this gives a total usage of 33K (2753 times 12) for EB1 leaving a spillover of 7K from EB1.

Overall the calculation is conservative, spillover should be higher. Any thoughts by others ?


Thanks for the link Kanmani.


Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/FY%202013%20EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2010_4_2012.pd f

[Kanmani]

I am not saying they were added between june and oct. i am saying people with pd < 2007 who would have got their 140s approved when dates were U would have sent interfile letters. and USCIS must have added those cases to the inventory.

I think they were added in the month of may itself. Somebody with real time experience in porting might clear your doubts.

[Spectator]

agreed about porting. But its difficult to add porting cases when dates are current and they are closed. Now the dates were U hence any porting case would have been added correctly. Most who sent an interfile letter between end of may and october 4 would/should have made it to the inventory since those cases were not acted upon and closedsbhagwat2000,

I'm going to use Ron Gotcher's terms here, because I know you have been there.

USICIS can INTERFILE all they want, as that only means consolidating the A-file with the information and papers.

USCIS CANNOT SUBSTITUTE the basis of the pending I-485 from EB3 to EB2 until the PD FOR EB2 IS CURRENT.

Until substitution is done, the case will not show in the EB2 Inventory, because it is not an EB2 I-485 case. Nor will it show in the Demand Data, since a visa cannot be requested until substitution has happened.

The backlog of cases pre 2007 is only indicative of a rising number of porting cases in general in the Inventories. 1,884 in October 2012 - 1,196 in May 2012 - 1,610 in January 2012.

It is not indicative of 4 months worth of total porting. It can only appear as the Cut Off Date moves forward and very little will have been added at the date of the Inventory.

I suspect there are going to be 2 camps. Those that believe the above and those that don't.

It is not worth further discussion.

[suninphx]

Thanks Kanmani. Header Updated with my take on 2013 predictions.

Q - Great to see that you are still maintaining your original projection. Those kind of projections have become very rare these days . There is so much conservativeness on this blog these days that people have almost forgotten other possibilities. Eventually what ever is going to happen till end of FY 2013 will happen and no one knows exactly how things will pan out so reminding people of other possibilities was very important. Your post does exactly that. Thank you!

[vizcard]

Thanks Kanmani. Header Updated with my take on 2013 predictions.

Q - does your analysis consider usage during to EB2ROW not being current and porting? the way i read it, it appeared that it was just current year usage.

[qesehmk]

Viz - EB2ROW not being current - yes. But EB2ROW porting - only a swag. I need to look into it more. I do think there is signficant porting in ROW from 3 to 2.

Spec - if you are reading - I think that is the reason behind huge difference between PERM approvals and actual consumption for EB2ROW. If you remember we discussed this a few months back. I think we need to establish how much porting is in ROW. That will probably help us understand that gap.


Q - does your analysis consider usage during to EB2ROW not being current and porting? the way i read it, it appeared that it was just current year usage.

[Spectator]

Viz - EB2ROW not being current - yes. But EB2ROW porting - only a swag. I need to look into it more. I do think there is signficant porting in ROW from 3 to 2.

Spec - if you are reading - I think that is the reason behind huge difference between PERM approvals and actual consumption for EB2ROW. If you remember we discussed this a few months back. I think we need to establish how much porting is in ROW. That will probably help us understand that gap.Q,

I think vizcard probably meant porting in general, rather than specifically EB2-WW porting.

GhostWriter started the subject of the difference between PERM figures and actual approvals. I have discussed it with him. Probably he is the best person to give a view on the subject. NIW is certainly a factor.

As to EB2-WW porting - I think it is probably 2-3k but there's a lot going on with EB2-WW.

[GhostWriter]

Q, the gap between expected applications from PERM and actual approvals for EB2-WW is quite large as you are saying.

See this link (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013&p=31148#post31148)
Over last four years we have on average 20% approvals not accounted by PERM (6.6K / 32K)
Over last two years we have on average 27% approvals not accounted by PERM (9.5K / 34K)

Spec points to the EB2-NIW category to explain a big chunk of this gap. My initial guess was why would anyone in EB2-WW apply in EB2-NIW as EB2-WW is always current and it only saves a few months of PERM processing and EB2-NIW has its own hassles. But Trackitt does show high usage of EB2-NIW for ROW. It roughly shows 15% (+/- 4%) of total EB2-WW usage (checked for PDs 2010 and 2011).

Probably EB2-NIW category is used a lot by foreign physicians serving in under-served medical areas or other researchers.

Accounting for EB2-NIW leaves room for 5-10% (1.7K - 3.4K ) of porting in EB2-WW.

The annual visa report does not show actual green cards issued under EB2-NIW separately so it seems there is no other way to verify besides Trackitt estimate for now. I am also puzzled by the recent Murthy article that can be interpreted to suggest high porting in EB2-WW.


Q,

I think vizcard probably meant porting in general, rather than specifically EB2-WW porting.

GhostWriter started the subject of the difference between PERM figures and actual approvals. I have discussed it with him. Probably he is the best person to give a view on the subject. NIW is certainly a factor.

As to EB2-WW porting - I think it is probably 2-3k but there's a lot going on with EB2-WW.


Viz - EB2ROW not being current - yes. But EB2ROW porting - only a swag. I need to look into it more. I do think there is signficant porting in ROW from 3 to 2.

Spec - if you are reading - I think that is the reason behind huge difference between PERM approvals and actual consumption for EB2ROW. If you remember we discussed this a few months back. I think we need to establish how much porting is in ROW. That will probably help us understand that gap.

[qesehmk]

Sun
I am slight conservative but not much. If you look at last years prediction - the numbers came out right where we predicted but the distribution was skewed because 2008 were approved over 2007. Otherwise the dates would be in Jan 2008 right now! BTW - CO as it is in the business of painting the worst picture. So if nothing else -our prediction even if turns out too rosy - at least it keeps people cheerful!

However in fairness to others - there indeed is a lot of subjectivity and unknowns for two people to look at the same data and still be quite pessimistic or optimistic.


Q - Great to see that you are still maintaining your original projection. Those kind of projections have become very rare these days . There is so much conservativeness on this blog these days that people have almost forgotten other possibilities. Eventually what ever is going to happen till end of FY 2013 will happen and no one knows exactly how things will pan out so reminding people of other possibilities was very important. Your post does exactly that. Thank you!


Q, the gap between expected applications from PERM and actual approvals for EB2-WW is quite large as you are saying.

See this link (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013&p=31148#post31148)
Over last four years we have on average 20% approvals not accounted by PERM (6.6K / 32K)
Over last two years we have on average 27% approvals not accounted by PERM (9.5K / 34K)

Spec points to the EB2-NIW category to explain a big chunk of this gap. My initial guess was why would anyone in EB2-WW apply in EB2-NIW as EB2-WW is always current and it only saves a few months of PERM processing and EB2-NIW has its own hassles. But Trackitt does show high usage of EB2-NIW for ROW. It roughly shows 15% (+/- 4%) of total EB2-WW usage (checked for PDs 2010 and 2011).

Probably EB2-NIW category is used a lot by foreign physicians serving in under-served medical areas or other researchers.

Accounting for EB2-NIW leaves room for 5-10% (1.7K - 3.4K ) of porting in EB2-WW.

The annual visa report does not show actual green cards issued under EB2-NIW separately so it seems there is no other way to verify besides Trackitt estimate for now. I am also puzzled by the recent Murthy article that can be interpreted to suggest high porting in EB2-WW.

Ghost - I actually take my words back. Any porting should be supported by PERM since one still needs a PERM for porting. So any difference is purely NIW+other things. This is different from EB2IC where not all new EB2 PERMs qualify for approvals. Whereas in case of EB2ROW - since category is current - all PERMs approved are eligible for 485 approval consideration the same year.

I would only use 27% which is the recent number. So if 15% is NIW then 12 is still unexplained. So perhaps we are better off bumping off ROW numbers 38% (to account for 27% of total 100% e.g. 27/73). Does that make sense?

[GhostWriter]

I would only use 27% which is the recent number. So if 15% is NIW then 12 is still unexplained. So perhaps we are better off bumping off ROW numbers 38% (to account for 27% of total 100% e.g. 27/73). Does that make sense?

Yes Q, it does.

[qesehmk]

Viz - that was a rough analysis. But EB2I porting is the reason I am thinking Sep 2008 instead of Dec 2008.

The EB2ROW being current or not doesn't really matter since the 485 inventory includes all the documentarily qualified cases and the analysis is always based on that.


Q - does your analysis consider usage during to EB2ROW not being current and porting? the way i read it, it appeared that it was just current year usage.

[wavelet3000]

Looking at the recent inventories, here are my projections.

EB2-WW Natural Rate.
2.7K June figure includes July demand brought forward, while 0.7K and 0.6K figures for April and May are reduced by approvals for lucky few. Prior to April, it is close to 1K per month, but again reduced by approvals.Splitting hairs, assume 1.3K new EB2-WW native demand per month. For FY13, this will translate to 14.3K, since July-12 is already included and July-September of 2013 will get approved in FY14.

EB3-WW to EB2-WW porting
In 5 months between May and October inventories, EB3-WW for the first 6 months of 2007 has been reduced by 108 I-485's. Assume this reduction is due to porting. Multiply by 2 to get to full 2007 year. Multiply by 12/5 to get annual rate. Multiply by 5.5 years (part 06 and part 12 and full years in between). Multiply by 2 to account for CP. Net estimate is 5.7K

EB2-WW Backlog reduction
Current EB2-WW inventory is 18.2K. In Aug. 2009 it was 7.7K. Assume in FY13 inventory falls back by 10K.

Altogether EB2-WW consumption will be 30K. This leaves SO of 4.5k. If we add Spec's projection of 5K from EB-1, and zero from other sources, net SOFAD will be 15K so COD will approach first half of 2008. Almost assuredly, SO will not be released until the last quarter, especially as backlog reduction part of EB2-WW consumption is front-loaded and will scare CO into extreme conservatism.

[Spectator]

I'll update the Facts & Data as I have time.

Total Decisions = 63,793

Certified PERM

China -------- 3,354
India ------- 30,306
Mexico ------- 1,209
Philippines -- 1,531
ROW --------- 18,216

Total ------- 54,616


AFRICA ----------- 939
ASIA ---------- 42,350
EUROPE --------- 4,730
NORTH AMERICA -- 4,538
OCEANIA ---------- 294
SOUTH AMERICA -- 1,765

Grand Total --- 54,616

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,

India's numbers are way above where they should be. Is this an indication of absolutely massive porting?

Last year I think it was 28,900 for india. So its almost the same number

[Spectator]

I have now updated the PERM posts in FACTS & DATA with the Q4 FY2012 PERM data.

Since they are going to have very different movement, I have separated out China and India in this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-China-amp-India) post (previously they were shown as combined figures).

PS to sportsfan

Compared to the 30,306 figure, last year was 31,273. See this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations) post.

I think what would be more worrying is that PD2011 PERM for India is 29.3k compared to a normal around 23k. PD2011 is either going to be very slow year to move through or there were an awful lot of porting cases (or both). PD2012 is on course to be a similar number.

[sbhagwat2000]

I have now updated the PERM posts in FACTS & DATA with the Q4 FY2012 PERM data.

Since they are going to have very different movement, I have separated out China and India in this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-China-amp-India) post (previously they were shown as combined figures).

PS to sportsfan

Compared to the 30,306 figure, last year was 31,273. See this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations) post.

I think what would be more worrying is that PD2011 PERM for India is 29.3k compared to a normal around 23k. PD2011 is either going to be very slow year to move through or there were an awful lot of porting cases (or both). PD2012 is on course to be a similar number.

Could it be also more RFEs and audits in 2011 compared to years past

[qesehmk]

Friends - we have made some changes to the forum to prevent SPAM. There has been a ton of spam floating around and a lot of the Gurus and Moderators have been spending a lot of time keeping forum clear. So please don't mind our efforts to keep the forum free from SPAM.

Happy thanksgiving!

[redsox2009]

Below numbers are the new I-485 fillings. There is a decrease in the number.

Month/Service Center TSC NSC Total
June 7,383 9,787 17170
July 6,376 9,184 15560
Aug 4,521 8,136 12657
Sep 4,019 6,807 10826


Is this is bacause of the retrogress of the EB2 dates or demand is low?