EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[yank]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6062.html

[tackle]

Btw, in case this hasn't been posted yet, Oct 2013 VB is out: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6062.html . EB2-I dates remain unchanged (15JUN08).

[natvyas]

EB2 China has moved ahead by a month. Wondering if the CO is using the monthly quota to move the dates forward.

[qesehmk]

As expected Oct 2013 bulletin doesn't show retrogression. As the Sep and Oct data comes in the dates might retrogress. As of now i think the chances of retrogression in Nov are 50-50. It all depends on how well USCIS clears EB2I backlog through the dates that are current.

[pdmay2008]

As expected Oct 2013 bulletin doesn't show retrogression. As the Sep and Oct data comes in the dates might retrogress. As of now i think the chances of retrogression in Nov are 50-50. It all depends on how well USCIS clears EB2I backlog through the dates that are current.

This is definitely good news for people like me waiting after being Current. This buys in more time to get approvals. Also this makes it no numbers get wasted if they can allocate the numbers ahead of time.

[qesehmk]

Also this makes it no numbers get wasted...That's a good point pdmay. I tend to believe (although I can't prove it) that DOS/USCIS continue to approve cases using prior year number into Oct. Thus it gives me some comfort to see dates not moving back - which would mean - the visas are not going waste now. But as I said - I don't really have proof for my theory except that in prior years i have noticed very large october approvals.

[suninphx]

As expected Oct 2013 bulletin doesn't show retrogression..

Great news !!

[pseudonym]

Gurus, assuming that all FY 2013 visa numbers for EB2I are used up by September, how many visa numbers will be available for EB2I in October?

I am trying to assess my chances of being approved in October, in case I do not get approved in September.

PD: March 11, 2008. TSC.

[qesehmk]

Gurus, assuming that all FY 2013 visa numbers for EB2I are used up by September, how many visa numbers will be available for EB2I in October?

I am trying to assess my chances of being approved in October, in case I do not get approved in September.

PD: March 11, 2008. TSC.
EB2I will get approx. 1/12th of 28.2% of 7% of 140K. That's approx 230 visas.

[rferni]

Do any of the knowledgeable folks here believe there could be mechanisms in place that allow the assignment of 2013 visa numbers to pending cases while they physically get approved in Oct 2013?
i.e. is there any way the DOS Visa Bureau may be able to assign visa numbers to outstanding cases in Sep 2013 while they may not get approved/issued until October?

Just wondering if that's one of the possible reasons behind maintaining the same cutoff date for EB2I going into FY 2014...

Many thanks

[msdhoni]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_october2013.pdf

EB2 I - No Change.

[ThisSummer]

Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait.

[qesehmk]

Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait. Congratulations ThisSummer.

[gcq]

Gurus,

What do you think of the latest visa bulletin ? For Eb2-I and EB3-I no movement forward or backward. How do you explain that.
The only explanation I can come up is CO is on vacation, so asked his staff to copy paste from earlier bulletin :-)

[redsox2009]

Any reason why Trackitt data on Q forum is not being updated since Sep5th 2013?

[Jagan01]

Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait.

Congrats this summer....

[Jagan01]

Any reason why Trackitt data on Q forum is not being updated since Sep5th 2013?

Spec may be away on vacation... I guess that is the reason...

[Jagan01]

Any reason why Trackitt data on Q forum is not being updated since Sep5th 2013?

Here is what I pulled from trackitt....

Approvals in Sept as of today:
June 08 - 18
May 08 - 36
Apr 08 - 51
Mar 08 - 29
Feb 08 - 18
Jan 08 - 17
Dec 07 - 03
Nov 07 - 08
Oct 07 - 02
Sep 07 - 04
Aug 07 - 04
Pre Aug 07 - 38

Total Approvals - 228

[SeekingGC2013]

Hello All Gurus

By far this has been the most nerve wrecking waiting period in my life...my PD - 05/14/08 - Eb2 I - TSC with RD - 03/14/12.
I am guessing they are processing based on RD's order and thats why im getting delayed. I have no idea how long this wait is going to be. I hope it ends soon and wish the same for everyone who is on the same boat.

With VB showing dates being 15 Jun 08 for Oct as well - do i stand a good chance of getting my GC before end of October? Also what is the criteria in processing 485 applciations? i saw lot of approvals in TSC in May and June08.

please share some thoughts
thanks


Here is what I pulled from trackitt....

Approvals in Sept as of today:
June 08 - 18
May 08 - 36
Apr 08 - 51
Mar 08 - 29
Feb 08 - 18
Jan 08 - 17
Dec 07 - 03
Nov 07 - 08
Oct 07 - 02
Sep 07 - 04
Aug 07 - 04
Pre Aug 07 - 38

Total Approvals - 228

[Jagan01]

Hello All Gurus

By far this has been the most nerve wrecking waiting period in my life...my PD - 05/14/08 - Eb2 I - TSC with RD - 03/14/12.
I am guessing they are processing based on RD's order and thats why im getting delayed. I have no idea how long this wait is going to be. I hope it ends soon and wish the same for everyone who is on the same boat.

With VB showing dates being 15 Jun 08 for Oct as well - do i stand a good chance of getting my GC before end of October? Also what is the criteria in processing 485 applciations? i saw lot of approvals in TSC in May and June08.

please share some thoughts
thanks
I am not a guru but still will reply...

There have been discussions in the past on the topic of PD vs RD. It should be in the current thread or in thread of Aug approvals
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2178-All-Aug-2013-485-APPROVALS-amp-DISCUSSION-report-here-with-details

Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ...

Many supportive documentations as well... Please read through the posts to conclude for yourself...

General consensus according to me is:
1. People who haven't received RFE
2. PD
3. RD

However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

[SeekingGC2013]

Thanks for forwarding the thread.

I qualify under the 1) No RFE category.




I am not a guru but still will reply...

There have been discussions in the past on the topic of PD vs RD. It should be in the current thread or in thread of Aug approvals
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2178-All-Aug-2013-485-APPROVALS-amp-DISCUSSION-report-here-with-details

Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ...

Many supportive documentations as well... Please read through the posts to conclude for yourself...

General consensus according to me is:
1. People who haven't received RFE
2. PD
3. RD

However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

[RogerFederer]

I am not a guru but still will reply..

Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ..

General consensus according to me is:
1. People who haven't received RFE
2. PD
3. RD

However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

Jagan...I'm waiting on when you can feel that I will be greened.. remember you promised you will let me know as you predicted Indiani...:-)

Lol.. please say tomorrow :(..

Mine no rfe... apr.28 pd, ppl after my pd lot of em got grn..rd 19 jan 2012.. same as pedro.. he got 2nd day:(...mine waiting...

[Techsavvy1973]

Jagan...I'm waiting on when you can feel that I will be greened.. remember you promised you will let me know as you predicted Indiani...:-)

Lol.. please say tomorrow :(..

Mine no rfe... apr.28 pd, ppl after my pd lot of em got grn..rd 19 jan 2012.. same as pedro.. he got 2nd day:(...mine waiting...

@RogerFederer - Looks like we share the receipt date and the fate. am still waiting too...

@Gurus - Just wanted to check if anyone has done any analysis or estimates on how many GCs have been used up so far (in Aug/Sep) for EB2I? And how much are remaining? Looking at the pace of approvals, looks like there is a higher chance of GCs running out then getting wasted - is that correct?

Thanks for your thoughts in advance!!

-- (Patiently waiting) Techsavvy1973

[PLASTIC]

I am not a guru but still will reply...

There have been discussions in the past on the topic of PD vs RD. It should be in the current thread or in thread of Aug approvals
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2178-All-Aug-2013-485-APPROVALS-amp-DISCUSSION-report-here-with-details

Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ...

Many supportive documentations as well... Please read through the posts to conclude for yourself...

General consensus according to me is:
1. People who haven't received RFE
2. PD
3. RD

However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

I don't see any specific pattern followed, there are plenty of approvals which will disprove all the theory. I guess the "luck" should be first one. You can improve your luck with some triggers like SR etc. That is what i am seeing now.

[Jagan01]

Jagan...I'm waiting on when you can feel that I will be greened.. remember you promised you will let me know as you predicted Indiani...:-)

Lol.. please say tomorrow :(..

Mine no rfe... apr.28 pd, ppl after my pd lot of em got grn..rd 19 jan 2012.. same as pedro.. he got 2nd day:(...mine waiting...

Hey Rogerfederer,

If I knew when you would get GC then I would surely tell you. :)

It was just one coincidence about Indiani... I do not know when anyone is getting greened.

[Jagan01]

@RogerFederer - Looks like we share the receipt date and the fate. am still waiting too...

@Gurus - Just wanted to check if anyone has done any analysis or estimates on how many GCs have been used up so far (in Aug/Sep) for EB2I? And how much are remaining? Looking at the pace of approvals, looks like there is a higher chance of GCs running out then getting wasted - is that correct?

Thanks for your thoughts in advance!!

-- (Patiently waiting) Techsavvy1973

Yes the visas would most likely not get wasted. How soon they run out is difficult to say but most likely they wouldn't run out before the last week of Sept.

[RogerFederer]

Yes the visas would most likely not get wasted. How soon they run out is difficult to say but most likely they wouldn't run out before the last week of Sept.

Hmm so random it is .. waiting continues..hopefully tomorrow will be my day :)

[Bharmanandam]

My PD is FEB 2008; got an RFE responded back in July 24; no sign of movement in my file... God only knows when I would get it ...

My case is with Texas Service Center ... dependents also received an RFE responded back in Aug 24th ... Any prediction on movement greatly appreciated ....


thanks

[qesehmk]

Bharmanandam

Welcome to forum. It is difficult to make a prediction on individual cases.

Clearly your case has some unresolved issues. It might be worthwhile to take an infopass and/or approach your senator/congressman for help. I wish you the best.


My PD is FEB 2008; got an RFE responded back in July 24; no sign of movement in my file... God only knows when I would get it ...

My case is with Texas Service Center ... dependents also received an RFE responded back in Aug 24th ... Any prediction on movement greatly appreciated ....


thanks

[geterdone]

I have a feeling that he is staying away due to a comment that was made on this forum. I am not going into details. I may be wrong.


Spec may be away on vacation... I guess that is the reason...

[druvraj]

Today is the 7th processing day in Sept for those waiting for GC. Since this also the last month for this visa year I feel that once we reach 12th day of processing for Sept then we will definitely see approvals slowing down. I am getting nervous by the hr. God know whats in store for me.

[Still_Waiting]

Based on Trackitt, first time I-485 and EAD filers in August 2013 are now recieving their EAD cards. Some have recieved EAD cards with one year validity while others have two years of validity. Now there's rampant speculation that applicants who were granted a one-year EAD are more likely to recieve their GC before possible upcoming retrogression in the next month or two while those with a two-year EAD will have to wait until summer next year to get their GCs. Do any of you think that there's any possibility of that being the case.

A little further digging shows that someone with a PD of Dec 13, 2007 got a one year EAD while another with a Dec 19, 2007 PD got a two-year EAD. If the logic applies, then dates should retrogress back to somewhere between Dec 13 and Dec 19, 2007. Of course this whole argument is very simplistic because we simply don't have enough data points and I have no way of knowing if people with PDs before that date have a one or two year EAD.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1273265365/let-us-group-first-time-i-485-filing-aug-2013/page/59

[ontheedge]

Today is the 7th processing day in Sept for those waiting for GC. Since this also the last month for this visa year I feel that once we reach 12th day of processing for Sept then we will definitely see approvals slowing down.

Druvraj, why do you feel there will be a slowdown after the 12th day of processing? Based on past month's experience?

[ontheedge]

Some have recieved EAD cards with one year validity while others have two years of validity. Now there's rampant speculation that applicants who were granted a one-year EAD are more likely to recieve their GC before possible upcoming retrogression in the next month or two while those with a two-year EAD will have to wait until summer next year to get their GCs. Do any of you think that there's any possibility of that being the case.



This happened last year too, and I was one of the folks that received a one year EAD, yet no approval. The same theories were floated around at that time. And we know how far the dates went back.

[Bharmanandam]

Bharmanandam

Welcome to forum. It is difficult to make a prediction on individual cases.

Clearly your case has some unresolved issues. It might be worthwhile to take an infopass and/or approach your senator/congressman for help. I wish you the best.

.

My case is not yet passed the 60 day processing time. In couple of weeks from now it will pass, and I will give a call to Texas Service Center. Thank you very much for very valuable suggestions and prediction.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Diverging from the CPO-based discussion, are there any chances for the dates to move forward - 'coz of factors like PERM approval slowdown, EB-1/EB-2 WW usage - in the 2nd qtr or there isn't a chance that dates shall not move until last qtr. My date is end july '08.

[ragx08]

Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait.

Congratulations Summer!!!

[vizcard]

I dont quite understand how the dates stayed the same. To me it implies 1 or a combo of 4 things - all of which are a lil hard to believe.
1. CO doesn't have faith that USCIS will consume this FYs quota and is planning on carrying it over (which is technically illegal)
2. CO expects monthly demand of less than 230 for Oct - Again really hard to believe.
3. CO is applying QSP early in the quarter - again a risky call.
4. CO simply screwed up on the VB dates

There has to be some internal retrogression mechanism. I really can't see too many approvals happening beyond Week 1 in Oct unless something goofy is going on (over and above this).

PS: Id love to see some updated DD

[Jagan01]

Diverging from the CPO-based discussion, are there any chances for the dates to move forward - 'coz of factors like PERM approval slowdown, EB-1/EB-2 WW usage - in the 2nd qtr or there isn't a chance that dates shall not move until last qtr. My date is end july '08.

Dates wont move ahead. The only way they can move ahead is if the CO applies QSP (Quaterly Spillover). That was done once in the past (2011) and it was a fiasco.

[Jagan01]

I dont quite understand how the dates stayed the same. To me it implies 1 or a combo of 4 things - all of which are a lil hard to believe.
1. CO doesn't have faith that USCIS will consume this FYs quota and is planning on carrying it over (which is technically illegal)
2. CO expects monthly demand of less than 230 for Oct - Again really hard to believe.
3. CO is applying QSP early in the quarter - again a risky call.
4. CO simply screwed up on the VB dates

There has to be some internal retrogression mechanism. I really can't see too many approvals happening beyond Week 1 in Oct unless something goofy is going on (over and above this).

PS: Id love to see some updated DD

Dates stayed the same as the demand has not surfaced yet. The first time I-485 applicants (EB3 to EB2 porters post Aug 2007), would have been filing their applications and they would be reflected in the demand around Nov. Hence, the dates will retrogress in Dec 2013.

So according to the stats there will be very few applicants left before June 2008 in the demand data until Nov DD is published. CO might think that 230 is enough to handle them and in the worst case he will apply QSP.

I am sure that he will retrogress dates in Dec 2013 bulletin.

[qesehmk]

Viz - here is my theory.

In the past when CO moved dates back in Oct .... it meant his prior movement was aggressive. Aggressive movement is intended to ensure no visas are wasted. Come october he retrogressed to a level he knew doesn't require retrogression.

However - this time it looks like the movement was very very well calibrated. So there is no need for retrogression unless CO gets hold of new data that tells him that retrogression is required.

Such new data is not going to be available by mid sep. It will become available by mid of Oct or end of Oct. It can mean only one thing that the real chances of retrogression should be for Dec bulletin rather than Nov. That's why I kept Nov retro chances at 50-50.

I dont quite understand how the dates stayed the same. To me it implies 1 or a combo of 4 things - all of which are a lil hard to believe.
1. CO doesn't have faith that USCIS will consume this FYs quota and is planning on carrying it over (which is technically illegal)
2. CO expects monthly demand of less than 230 for Oct - Again really hard to believe.
3. CO is applying QSP early in the quarter - again a risky call.
4. CO simply screwed up on the VB dates

There has to be some internal retrogression mechanism. I really can't see too many approvals happening beyond Week 1 in Oct unless something goofy is going on (over and above this).

PS: Id love to see some updated DD

[vizcard]

Viz - here is my theory.

In the past when CO moved dates back in Oct .... it meant his prior movement was aggressive. Aggressive movement is intended to ensure no visas are wasted. Come october he retrogressed to a level he knew doesn't require retrogression.

However - this time it looks like the movement was very very well calibrated. So there is no need for retrogression unless CO gets hold of new data that tells him that retrogression is required.

Such new data is not going to be available by mid sep. It will become available by mid of Oct or end of Oct. It can mean only one thing that the real chances of retrogression should be for Dec bulletin rather than Nov. That's why I kept Nov retro chances at 50-50.

mathematically it still doesn't make sense even with known info. Demand up to June 15 (from June DD) is approx. 16.5K. This is known. Now even if you assume 2.5K (low balling) of the porting came in between Aug 1 and Sept 10... we are in the 19K range. By keeping dates steady it would imply that there is enough SOFAD to cover 19K known demand plus the rest of Sept.

[luckycub]

Gurus - Could you guys please predict where the cut off dates will be for EB2C in the FY2014? Thanks a lot!

[qesehmk]

mathematically it still doesn't make sense even with known info. Demand up to June 15 (from June DD) is approx. 16.5K. This is known. Now even if you assume 2.5K (low balling) of the porting came in between Aug 1 and Sept 10... we are in the 19K range. By keeping dates steady it would imply that there is enough SOFAD to cover 19K known demand plus the rest of Sept.
SOFAD is something that we always know really well after the fact. So until then it's all conjecture. 16 or 19K is the same thing and I would imagine he date movement had baked these things in. For CO to move date in Oct he either should've already known that he made an unsustainable movement in prior year just to make sure no wastage. So whatever that number was - 16-19K or something else - if CO calibrated it well then, then he can't move until new data shows that in October there is too much demand compared to supply. Since OCT bulletin is published in Sep he chose to not move dates at all for EB2I. But he did so for EB2C because of the new numbers that became available with new year.

p.s.- On another note - why would there be 2.5K porting in just one single month. I didn't understand that part.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Is there any reliable/guesstimated statistic on the average spillover EB-2 has received/has a probability of receiving for a FY? For the sake of discussion/clarity, assume the sample period to be from FY 2007 - 2013.

[Jun1308]

Gurus,

With the EB2 dates remaining same in October, do we still see any percentage of applications < June 15 2008 (including porting) untouched or not picked by officers before October end ?

[vizcard]

SOFAD is something that we always know really well after the fact. So until then it's all conjecture. 16 or 19K is the same thing and I would imagine he date movement had baked these things in. For CO to move date in Oct he either should've already known that he made an unsustainable movement in prior year just to make sure no wastage. So whatever that number was - 16-19K or something else - if CO calibrated it well then, then he can't move until new data shows that in October there is too much demand compared to supply. Since OCT bulletin is published in Sep he chose to not move dates at all for EB2I. But he did so for EB2C because of the new numbers that became available with new year.

p.s.- On another note - why would there be 2.5K porting in just one single month. I didn't understand that part.

You are giving CO a lot of credit :)

what I mean by 2.5k is that there are these porting cases that were previously "invisible" to CO that are just a "flip the switch" exercise the moment the dates got current.

[qesehmk]

You are giving CO a lot of credit :)
LoL! You could be right.

[Jagan01]

Gurus,

With the EB2 dates remaining same in October, do we still see any percentage of applications < June 15 2008 (including porting) untouched or not picked by officers before October end ?

The only possibility is Internal Retrogression of dates. In case the visa numbers are over and CO doesn't want to add QSP then he can internally retrogress the dates and stop giving visas in the first week of Oct.

[vizcard]

The only possibility is Internal Retrogression of dates. In case the visa numbers are over and CO doesn't want to add QSP then he can internally retrogress the dates and stop giving visas in the first week of Oct.

I've always questioned the legality of "internal retrogression". Perhaps Kanmani (if she's around) or Pedro can comment on that.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Is there any reliable/guesstimated statistic on the average spillover EB-2 has received/has a probability of receiving for a FY? For the sake of discussion/clarity, assume the sample period to be from FY 2007 - 2013.

[vizcard]

Is there any reliable/guesstimated statistic on the average spillover EB-2 has received/has a probability of receiving for a FY? For the sake of discussion/clarity, assume the sample period to be from FY 2007 - 2013.

Spec has data from FY 2008 onwards in the Facts and Data section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards) of the forum

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

thanks,viz. So, based on the average spillover it looks like dates are likely to move/stop around may/june '09 for FY '14. Comments?

[Jagan01]

thanks,viz. So, based on the average spillover it looks like dates are likely to move/stop around may/june '09 for FY '14. Comments?

Tried going through the posts where we had a discussion of this in the past but could not fiind them. I think Spec had put out prediction and as far as I remember it was like
Apr/May 2009 - Optimistic
Mar 2009 - Realistic
Jan 2009 - If many people who are current are left behind. (Looking at current trends, not many will be left behind)

I might be wring but it would be best to find those posts.

[Jagan01]

Already 333 approvals for Sept 2013 in Trackitt. They are doing pretty good and clearing cases at a rapid rate. By the end of this week (2nd week of Sep) we might see 400 approvals.

Aug approvals --> 566
Aug new applicants --> 137
Sep approvals --> 333
Sep new applicants --> 42

Total approvals --> 899
Total new applications --> 179

It is good to see that lesser porting applications filed in September compared to Aug. Trend until now shows that for every 100 approvals there are 20 new applicants. Scaling this to the scenario where we are expecting around 18k approvals, we might see 3k pending porting demand when the next inventory is published. Let us assume that 1k are left behind, then it will be 4k pending before June 2008. Add to it the known inventory from June 2008 onwards and you can see approx 8k until Jan 2009.

Thus before Jan 2009 we would have 8k+4k = 12k pending.
Thus before Feb 2009 we would have 8k+5.3k = 13.3k pending.
Thus before Mar 2009 we would have 8k+6.6k = 14.6k pending.

I believe with lower FB spillover, it would be difficult to get more than 15k for EB2I. Hence, I would say FY14 would most likely be at Mar 2009.

[Pedro Gonzales]

The only possibility is Internal Retrogression of dates. In case the visa numbers are over and CO doesn't want to add QSP then he can internally retrogress the dates and stop giving visas in the first week of Oct.

I believe the only precedent for internal retrogression was in Mar '12 and that had to do with usage of nearly all EB2 visa numbers for the entire year. I don't think there is any justification for internal retrogression at the beginning of the year. The USCIS can issue 27% of all EB2 visa numbers in Q1 and it can give them all to EB2I if there is demand, and there is no month by month restriction, so technically, the USCIS shouldn't stop issuing visa numbers to EB2I until the dates retrogress at Oct end. I think everybody other than first time I485 applicants or people stuck with new RFEs will get approved in October. Many first time I485 applicants will get their green cards too but there can be no guarantee of that.

Basically CO has inadvertently authorized QSP without knowing how much it will be. I think he is betting that the demand not satisfied by FY2013 spill over will be < 3K and can be satisfied with the EB2I FY2014 supply. The USCIS can apply that without worrying about the quarterly limits. Of course there will be significant retrogression come Nov 1, 2013 to wherever EB3I is, so that no further porting will be possible until the spill over is known in summer 2014.

[Jagan01]

I believe the only precedent for internal retrogression was in Mar '12 and that had to do with usage of newarly all EB2 visa numbers for the entire year. I don't think there is any justification for internal retrogression at the begining of the year. The USCIS can issue 27% of all EB2 visa numbers in Q1 and it can give them all to EB2I if there is demand, and there is no month by month restriction, so technically, the USCIS sholdn't stop issuing visa numbers to EB2I until the dates retrogress at Oct end. I think everybody other than first time I485 applicants or people stuck with new RFEs will get approved in October. Many first time I485 applicants will get their green cards too but there can be no guarantee of that.

Basically CO has inadvertently authorized QSP without knowing how much it will be. I think he is betting that the demand not satisfied by FY2013 spill over will be < 3K and can be satisfied with the EB2I FY2014 supply. The USCIS can apply that without worrying about the quarterly limits. Of course there will be significant retrogression come Nov 1, 2013 to wherever EB3I is, so that no further porting will be possible until the spill over is known in summer 2014.

The

Thanks for the inputs Pedro.

How long do you think a case takes to preadj once it is filed for the first time with USCIS. I am trying to see how many first time I-485 filers who filed in Aug 2013 will have their cases preadj before the dates eventually retrogress in Nov / Dec.

[vizcard]

Thanks for the inputs Pedro.

How long do you think a case takes to preadj once it is filed for the first time with USCIS. I am trying to see how many first time I-485 filers who filed in Aug 2013 will have their cases preadj before the dates eventually retrogress in Nov / Dec.

It'll be 3-4 months. You will start to see those in the December demand data. I doubt any (or maybe very very few) will get approved befores dates retrogress.

[ashirolkar]

I am getting worried now. Even though my PD is March2008, my RD is in April 2012 and Texas is clearly approving based on RD in near chronological order. Only exception where it is approving cases with really late RDs (April, May 2012) is for cases with really old PDs. I am not so sure they will reach my RD before the visas run out this month. FYI, I got the mass RFE. Gurus - any thoughts? Mera number kab aayega?

Pedro's post above is giving me some hope though.

[Jagan01]

It'll be 3-4 months. You will start to see those in the December demand data. I doubt any (or maybe very very few) will get approved befores dates retrogress.

3 months from Aug 1 will end on Nov 1. The dates won't retrogress until Dec 2013. Thus there might be a small window of 10 days. If QSP is applied then I do not see why it might be very very few.

We have so far completely ignored the people applying for first time from the equation.

[rosharma]

I do believe few of the lucky first timers (Most probably the ones who filled I-485 in August) will get their GCs. I do not have any proof to back my argument but I know for sure in 2012 COD frenzy lot of first timers did get their 485 approved.

P.S. Do we have any first timer cases from Trackitt which have got their 485 approved yet?

[vizcard]

3 months from Aug 1 will end on Nov 1. The dates won't retrogress until Dec 2013. Thus there might be a small window of 10 days. If QSP is applied then I do not see why it might be very very few.

We have so far completely ignored the people applying for first time from the equation.

I'm not sure how you can definitively say dates won't retrogress until Dec. Maybe you know something that I don't.

Also, USCIS stated processing time for 485s is 4 months. Many first timers got their GC in 2011 because USCIS didn't have any backlog to work on. This time around they have tons of backlog to clear in August and Sept.

Finally I dont think anyone has ignored first timers from any equation. They were always accounted for in FY14 calculations. Porting will always continue but the difference is that those first timers will show up in demand data now rather than be invisible.

[sk911911]

Apologies for posting here. Like many immigrant hopefuls, I am a daily reader of this forum. I finally received my Card Production email today. My PD is 17MAR08.

I sincerely thank all the gurus, pandits and every one else contributing the analysis here - Spec, Q,Veni, Ted,...,Matt, Indiani. The analysis indeed helped me in my plans.

Spec, I still remember the day when you first in the world reported about the unused family based visa available to EB category. It indeed gave me hope.

Thank you

[qesehmk]

Congratulations SK. Best wishes for future. If you can - do keep visiting and helping others.
Apologies for posting here. Like many immigrant hopefuls, I am a daily reader of this forum. I finally received my Card Production email today. My PD is 17MAR08.

I sincerely thank all the gurus, pandits and every one else contributing the analysis here - Spec, Q,Veni, Ted,...,Matt, Indiani. The analysis indeed helped me in my plans.

Spec, I still remember the day when you first in the world reported about the unused family based visa available to EB category. It indeed gave me hope.

Thank you

[gc_soon]

Congrats SK. Enjoy the green.



Spec, I still remember the day when you first in the world reported about the unused family based visa available to EB category. It indeed gave me hope.

Thank you

Same with me. I was the first to clarify to Spec's statement on unused FB visas in DOS visa statistics where he mentioned there was a possibility of spillover and was eagerly waiting for his reply to confirm which he did. That was the last hope for me that I would be current in FY2013.

[aary09]

Guys,
Finally received my AOS email today.
My utmost and humblest thanks to all the gurus who helped me to understand and navigate through this process. Q You were one of them sticking to the guns when even data was not at your side.

With many thanks
Aary
PD 05/07/08
NO RFE's
erequest on 9/6 ( after reading one of the posts in q immi)
AOS email 09/13

[qesehmk]

Many congratulations ... aary09. Happy friday and a gr8 weekend ahead.
Guys,
Finally received my AOS email today.
My utmost and humblest thanks to all the gurus who helped me to understand and navigate through this process. Q You were one of them sticking to the guns when even data was not at your side.

With many thanks
Aary
PD 05/07/08
NO RFE's
erequest on 9/6 ( after reading one of the posts in q immi)
AOS email 09/13

[vizcard]

Just wondering if it's time already for the 2014 thread. I know there hasn't been much data lately but it will still be nice to let all people post their initial predictions based upon the information we have.

I believe Q mentioned that he would keep this thread on as 2014 and move all 2013 posts to a different new thread. Idea is so members' bookmarks wouldn't get messed up. Q thinking ahead as usual.

[qesehmk]

Dear All,

Header of the thread is now updated with my final post for year 2013 and a rough picture of 2014.

Regards
Q

[IJune05]

As always, thank you Q


Dear All,

Header of the thread is now updated with my final post for year 2013 and a rough picture of 2014.

Regards
Q

[amulchandra]

Dear All,

Header of the thread is now updated with my final post for year 2013 and a rough picture of 2014.

Regards
Q

Thank you very much for your detailed analysis.
If possible can you please throw some light on EB 3 India?

Thank you very much

Amul

[Gcsep09]

Hi,
I know its too ealey to pose the question.
When can i expect to be current with sep 09 eb2 pd.

Thanks

[Jagan01]

Hi,
I know its too ealey to pose the question.
When can i expect to be current with sep 09 eb2 pd.

Thanks

FY 2015 (July-Sep 2015)

[qesehmk]

Sorry Amul. Today we had a site hijack and I spent more than 8 hours trying to clean up stuff and upgrade and bolster security etc.

To answer your question - EB3I contrary to my earlier feeling - is probably on a sustainable path i.e. there may not be any retrogression (big deal right!! for people who already are retrogressed so severely).

My normal expectation for EB3I would be 3-5 months of movement. In reality we saw 9 months in 2013. That is probably 16-17K numbers (from original backlog) we are talking about. Of that 3.5K were actually approved. So the rest are either cancellations and portings. I would imagine, most are really cancellations - people who got fed up and just couldn't stretch their lives too much. This is a trend that is true not just with India but with all countries - except philipines. This explains why ROW has moved so fast. With the same trend I would expect another 7-8 months of movement for EB3I in 2014 and about 2 years of movement for ROW. But we can say this definitively after the 485 data is published sometime in Oct 2013.Hope this helps.


Thank you very much for your detailed analysis.
If possible can you please throw some light on EB 3 India?

Thank you very much

Amul

[amulchandra]

Sorry Amul. Today we had a site hijack and I spent more than 8 hours trying to clean up stuff and upgrade and bolster security etc.

To answer your question - EB3I contrary to my earlier feeling - is probably on a sustainable path i.e. there may not be any retrogression (big deal right!! for people who already are retrogressed so severely).

My normal expectation for EB3I would be 3-5 months of movement. In reality we saw 9 months in 2013. That is probably 16-17K numbers (from original backlog) we are talking about. Of that 3.5K were actually approved. So the rest are either cancellations and portings. I would imagine, most are really cancellations - people who got fed up and just couldn't stretch their lives too much. This is a trend that is true not just with India but with all countries - except philipines. This explains why ROW has moved so fast. With the same trend I would expect another 7-8 months of movement for EB3I in 2014 and about 2 years of movement for ROW. But we can say this definitively after the 485 data is published sometime in Oct 2013.Hope this helps.

Thank you very much for taking time to answer my question. It looks like it is still going to be a long wait for jul 2006 eb3 i to be current.

[titanian]

I don't agree on this. We don't have month by month data. Its a general assumption that 2009 has less data than any of its previous or successive year.

If the spill over is 18+, there are chances Sep2009 will be covered.

[vizcard]

I don't agree on this. We don't have month by month data. Its a general assumption that 2009 has less data than any of its previous or successive year.

If the spill over is 18+, there are chances Sep2009 will be covered.

It doesn't matter if we have month by month data. Looking at annual numbers gives you an idea of where dates will end up. For 2008, the spread was fairly even month to month.

From the June demand data, for 2008 there are approx 18K cases and 2009 has approx 17K. To reach Sept 30, 2009 you would need 9K (July to Dec 2008) + 12.5K (3/4 of 17K)+approx 5K(porting) + whatever is leftover from this go-around. Given current expectations on SOFAD for FY14, it seems highly unlikely that we will get to Sept 2009. As of now, I'd put the probability at less than 5%.

Obviously this is subject to change.

[MATT2012]

Spec,

Lately, I have not noticed any updates from you. Your latest footer " So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish" , makes me believe that you have either left the forum or a temporary pause before next fiscal year. Thank you for all the data crunching and consistent updates. From all your postings I learned a lot.

I am sure the next year batch look forward to see amazing posts from you.

I will look forward to see your postings.

Thanks again for all the data sharing, analysis and help. I am also sure many were blessed through your postings.

With great respect!!!

Matt

Update on June 12, 2013

There is a fairly strong indication that "the priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance as far as February 2008 in the August or September Visa Bulletin".

That can be interpreted to mean a Cut Off Date between 01FEB08 and 01MAR08 depending how you parse the statement.

Without any porting, progress to those dates would take between 9-10k.

With porting of anywhere between 4-7k, that would be 13-17k total approvals to EB2-I if every case was approved. In reality, some people will be "left behind", so the likely number of approvals will be towards the lower end of that range.

The bright spot might be if EB2-WW approvals continue to slow. That would allow slightly further movement. The "elephant in the room" is the level of EB1 approvals, which no-one has a good handle on.


Update on April 04, 2013

Only because people seem to want one. The information available isn't very clear.

EB2-I might receive anything between 8k and 17k approvals, depending on how EB1 and EB2-WW perform. A mid point would be about 13 - 15k approvals i.e. towards the upper end.

Assuming not all cases are approved, that might move the Cut Off dates to the end of February/March 2008, using that mid point. At the upper end, June 2008 might be possible.

If a significant number of porting cases are delayed (due to RFE or processing time when they become Current), then the Cut Off Dates could move a bit further than mentioned above.

More time is needed to see what EB1 and EB2-WW will do in the coming months. Assumed Porting numbers have to be a guess and may be wrong.


Update on March 10, 2013 to make things clearer

The FY2012 DOS Visa statistics provided some very nice surprises.

FB underused their allocation and may provide as many as 13.2k extra visas to EB2.

EB4 did not use their full allocation again and I now feel confident to allow some spillover from EB4.

EB1 had high usage in FY2012, but this may be a rebound effect from Kazarian in FY2011. Nonetheless, for prediction purposes I am going to use a lower figure for FY2013.

EB2-ROW and EB2-Philippines were on target to use or exceed their allocation, while EB2-Mexico would still have provided spare numbers had retrogression not been imposed.

Currently, I am using the following spillover numbers for FY2013 based on 158k being available to EB:

EB1 ------ 10.2
EB2-M --- }
EB2-P --- } 0.0
EB2-ROW - }
EB3 ------- 0.0
EB4 ------- 3.3
EB5 ------- 1.3
Total ---- 14.8 k spillover.

At that level EB2-China would receive 1k as 7% of Fall Down, giving 4.2k with the initial allocation of 3.2k.

EB2-India would have around 17k visas available including the 3.2k initial allocation.

That might be sufficient to clear all cases to about April 2008.

The above is probably a mid point. There are still big doubts about the performance of EB1 and EB2-ROW/P. For instance, if EB1 were use 40k again in FY2013, then dates might struggle to even be in early 2008.

Also, as mentioned above, it assumes that all cases will be cleared. We know that is never the case, so Cut Off Dates will probably move slightly further than that.

Movement into 2009 now seems impossible.

Where the dates move to is going to depend on the performance of EB1, EB2-ROW and just how many porting applications there are / are approved.


Posted January 01, 2013

Q1 is now history.

I am relatively less optimistic based on the Trackitt figures to date, although I would like to see the actual FY2012 numbers.

Any hope of spillover from EB5 must now be discounted.

EB4 was artificially low in FY2011 due the withdrawal of concurrent filing for Religious Workers cases part way through the year. Unless there is specific evidence to the contrary, EB4 can be expected to return to full usage. The FY2012 figures from DOS will confirm this theory (or not).

EB2-WW has used approaching 40% of their yearly allocation in 3 months. Barring extremely slow adjudication times, EB2-WW looks like it will use its entire allocation and there is some risk of EB2-WW also using spillover available from EB1.

Judging from CO comments on August 30, 2012:



EB1 usage in FY2012 approached 40k. Again, the official Visa Statistics will tell the truth of this.

The USCIS Inventory does not suggest backlog reduction, since the October 2011 and October 2012 EB1 figures are almost identical.

Relatively high EB1 usage in FY2013 must also be expected.

The signs are that there will be very little spillover available in FY2013. In fact, adjusted for various factors, the underlying spillover in FY2012 wasn't very high either, but a combination of the extra visas available from FB and the use by EB2-IC of EB2-WW visas only made it look so.

All this tends to point to EB2-I only having 6k or less total visas available to them in FY2013. The majority of these will be consumed by porting cases, leaving very few to clear existing cases.

An ending Cut Off Date in mid 2007 will be a good result, but that is not guaranteed. I do not think there is any chance of the Cut Off date reaching 2008. The actual number of porting cases approved will determine the final Cut Off Date.

Added January 04, 2013 to be consistent with other posts

Spillover -- Min ----- Max --- Avge.
EB1 ---------- 0 --- 5,000 --- 2,500
EB2-WW -- (5,000) ------ 0 -- (2,500)
EB4 ---------- 0 --- 2,000 --- 1,000
EB5 ---------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0
Total --- (5,000) -- 7,000 --- 1,000

Approvals Available to EB2-India

EB2-I ---- 2,803 --- 9,803 --- 6,303


Posted September 25, 2012

At this moment, a prediction for FY2013 is a fools errand because of so many unknowns.

With the scant information available, here goes anyway.

A mid-point scenario might see EB2-I receive 9.8k visas in FY2013 (7k extra).

That would move Cut Off Dates to the very beginning of 2008, if 4.5k porting was assumed.

Numbers are much less in the period Jan 1, 2008 to March 14, 2008 than the remainder of 2008 due the extra month they had for approval in FY2012. Only a further 2.5k are required to hit this mark. Since not all cases will be closed out, even 9.8k visas for EB2-I can move the Cut Off date into this territory. After that 1.1 - 1.3k per month are required in 2008.

Personally, I think EB1 will hit at least 35k in FY2013.

Big unknowns are whether EB2-WW either uses spillover, uses none, or give some fall across. Increased usage by Philippines is not a good indicator.

EB5 will give little to no spillover (maybe 2k at most).

EB4 is an unknown quantity. In FY2011, it gave significant spillover. It remains to be seen whether this was a once off event, or whether it will be repeated. A better idea will become apparent when the FY2012 DOS Statistics are published. Hopefully, we will see a return to them being published in January, rather than August.

I differ with some and think porting numbers may be higher than I have indicated above. If USCIS have followed their own AFM, then none of the cases submitted since dates became Unavailable will yet appear in the DOS Demand Data, since the final conversion (and thus visa request under EB2) cannot take place until the PD is Current.

The very best I think is possible (but less likely) with all favorable possibilities is mid 2008.

If some assumptions don't pan out, then the dates will end in 2007.

The (very, very unlikely) worst scenario really is too dire to contemplate.

China will move completely independently of India and end at some point in 2008.

The information available at the moment is poor. The prediction can be refined when that situation improves with time.

Don't take it too seriously at the moment.

[trackright]

Spec,

Lately, I have not noticed any updates from you. Your latest footer " So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish" , makes me believe that you have either left the forum or a temporary pause before next fiscal year. Thank you for all the data crunching and consistent updates. From all your postings I learned a lot.

I am sure the next year batch look forward to see amazing posts from you.

I will look forward to see your postings.

Thanks again for all the data sharing, analysis and help. I am also sure many were blessed through your postings.

With great respect!!!

Matt

Matt,

From Spec's post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2188-All-Sep-2013-485-APPROVALS-amp-DISCUSSION-report-here-with-details?p=39960#post39960) he is off on vacation.

[MATT2012]

if so I will be happy, Google it" So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish"


Matt,

From Spec's post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2188-All-Sep-2013-485-APPROVALS-amp-DISCUSSION-report-here-with-details?p=39960#post39960) he is off on vacation.

[qesehmk]

You know Matt... that is Spec. I like him more for these kind of quirks of his. BTW yesterday he posted in Mod forum .... and we had some exchange but of course I won't say anything beyond. Let Spec be the one talking about his intentions.


if so I will be happy, Google it" So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish"

[Jagan01]

I don't agree on this. We don't have month by month data. Its a general assumption that 2009 has less data than any of its previous or successive year.

If the spill over is 18+, there are chances Sep2009 will be covered.

The numbers hardly support the dates movement until Mar 2009. I do not see where you get the idea that 18+ (Lets say 19k) can cover Sep 2009. 8k will be pending from Jun 08 to Dec 08. Another 12k from Jan 09 to Sep 09. Another 3k of first time applicants before June 2008 that will not get GC in this FY. To sum it up, there will be 8+12+3=23k applicants before Sep 2009. That is at a minimum.You need at least 24k supply to clear that out. That is no way possible.

Movement should be around Mar 2009 according to current trends.

[suninphx]

Another 3k of first time applicants before June 2008 that will not get GC in this FY.

Based on what data? Do we have calculated this anywhere on this forum recently? or this is based on trackitt data?

[Jagan01]

Based on what data? Do we have calculated this anywhere on this forum recently? or this is based on trackitt data?

Recently, we have had estimates of 7% conversion rate for trackitt data. Both Spec and Indiani suggested that around 8k got approved in Aug and I can see 570 approvals in Aug.

On trackitt we have seen 217 applications that applied between Aug - Sep and are still pending cases. So the 217 on trackitt would correspond to 3100 (3k) porting applicants that would reflect in the new inventory and demand data.

[Jagan01]

What are their priority dates? It could be the pent up porting demand. From the thread maintained by "idiotic" here on September folks and another trackigg thread for March 2008 filers, I see a very large percentage of people are approved (and even idiotic has missed to update a couple of approved folks by simple visual inspection). Also, we still have a few days to go in September...let's see how many approvals we will see. My point is late 2007 and 2008 PDs have fared very well and it's only been slightly over half a month.

I am missing your point? How does the priority date matter when we are trying to figure out porting applications (first time I-485 filers). These will be ready for approval 3 months after the filing of the application. They will all become preadj by Nov 2013 and will start reflecting in the demand/inventory. So we should see like 3k applications prior to June 2008 that would be waiting for approval in FY 2014.

[qesehmk]

titanian - the 485 inventory is the month by month data. Or perhaps you mean month by month approvals? That I would agree with of course.

If as you say the spillover is 18+ next year then EB2I will have all of that plus 3K quota. Bet Jun 2008 and Sep 2009, there are more cases than that. Plus the next wave of portings will hit the EB2I queue. So Sep will be impossible with 18K spillover - however May is a certainty with 18K spillover.

The question is - why would spillover be 18K? Will it be 18K. In the header I have explained my reasoning why it may not be 18K next year.



I don't agree on this. We don't have month by month data. Its a general assumption that 2009 has less data than any of its previous or successive year.

If the spill over is 18+, there are chances Sep2009 will be covered.

[seattlet]

Guys,
My 485, 131, 765 got rejected today (filed on 9/4). It seems they had mistakenly classified it as a family petition instead of employment petition even though my attorney had attached approved I 140 (as per their remarks)

They are quoting USCIS error and are attaching a cover letter with the I 140 copy and filing again tomorrow.

If it was USCIS error, do they giveme the old receipt date ? Im not sure being 15 days ahead in queue matters that much but it was a nice to have ..

Any thoughts ?

[titanian]

I should look at the inventory data and do analysis. I was under the assumption that Jan - Dec 2009 has less number of cases than any other year.

Anyways updated demand data and inventory data will give more picture.



titanian - the 485 inventory is the month by month data. Or perhaps you mean month by month approvals? That I would agree with of course.

If as you say the spillover is 18+ next year then EB2I will have all of that plus 3K quota. Bet Jun 2008 and Sep 2009, there are more cases than that. Plus the next wave of portings will hit the EB2I queue. So Sep will be impossible with 18K spillover - however May is a certainty with 18K spillover.

The question is - why would spillover be 18K? Will it be 18K. In the header I have explained my reasoning why it may not be 18K next year.

[titanian]

Update demand and inventory can answer many questions. I was under the wrong assumption that June - Dec 2008 has less little cases like 6500+.

If porting consumes 4000-5000, then I thought we will have 7000 left over. This is for 18K spillover.

Also do you think CO will apply Quarterly spill over. In previous years, any pattern of application other than 2012 ?


titanian - the 485 inventory is the month by month data. Or perhaps you mean month by month approvals? That I would agree with of course.

If as you say the spillover is 18+ next year then EB2I will have all of that plus 3K quota. Bet Jun 2008 and Sep 2009, there are more cases than that. Plus the next wave of portings will hit the EB2I queue. So Sep will be impossible with 18K spillover - however May is a certainty with 18K spillover.

The question is - why would spillover be 18K? Will it be 18K. In the header I have explained my reasoning why it may not be 18K next year.

[RogerFederer]

Guys,
My 485, 131, 765 got rejected today (filed on 9/4). It seems they had mistakenly classified it as a family petition instead of employment petition even though my attorney had attached approved I 140 (as per their remarks)

They are quoting USCIS error and are attaching a cover letter with the I 140 copy and filing again tomorrow.

If it was USCIS error, do they giveme the old receipt date ? Im not sure being 15 days ahead in queue matters that much but it was a nice to have ..

Any thoughts ?

If itsa mistake that would be fine..there is no advantage with receipt date..on the other hand you must send it fast before dates go back..
Usually there will be reasons such as incorrect fee. Wrong apparently wrong pictures missing docs cause rejections..

Any ways sorry to know that this happened..this time make sure u dbl Chi ur finalcopy with some one else as well..

Rd doesn't matter..once you r in queue all that matters is ur luck

[RogerFederer]

Eb2I next year my guess is dec08 worstcase.. may09 bestcase

[garihc27]

gurus,

Is there a way to track status of EAD, AOS, Advance Parole? Thanks!

[venkat]

i love that Sports especially me being someone who missed the boat by 10 days (my PD is June 24, 2008). Though the chances are very slim but it would be wonderful if QSP comes to fruition.



On an unrelated topic, suppose the PERM slowdown and processing times keep worsening in the short term, it is not unlikely that we will see QSP and EB2-I dates would jump in the first 2 quarters themselves instead of the last one. CO would like to spread out visa approvals evenly across all quarters and if the other categories are falling far short of approvals, EB2-I can make up the difference. Let's see if this comes to fruition.

[Gcsep09]

I think its still a possibility based on the spill over.
1. From Jun 15 08 to Oct 1st 09- apprx: 18K case
2. Eb3-Eb2 who have filed 485 this time but will in 2014 quota: 4k apprx
3. Miscellaneous: 2k appr
Total cases Needed to cover sep 09 PD: 22k.
Estimate on available visas:
Reg quota: 3k
EB spill Over: 14 k ---what are the chances of getting this spillover from EB
FB: There is lot of discussion going on saying it will be less.
4K spill over--what are the possiblities
Total:
3k+14k(subject to change) + 4k (subject to change): 21K

what is the probability of 14K EB and 4K FB spillover for next year?

[vizcard]

gurus,

Is there a way to track status of EAD, AOS, Advance Parole? Thanks!

i assume u mean your own cases. Theres an online USCIS status check website. Google it. It asks for your receipt numbers. You alos have the option to set up text and email alerts when status changes.

[vizcard]

I think its still a possibility based on the spill over.
1. From Jun 15 08 to Oct 1st 09- apprx: 18K case
2. Eb3-Eb2 who have filed 485 this time but will in 2014 quota: 4k apprx
3. Miscellaneous: 2k appr
Total cases Needed to cover sep 09 PD: 22k.
Estimate on available visas:
Reg quota: 3k
EB spill Over: 14 k ---what are the chances of getting this spillover from EB
FB: There is lot of discussion going on saying it will be less.
4K spill over--what are the possiblities
Total:
3k+14k(subject to change) + 4k (subject to change): 21K

what is the probability of 14K EB and 4K FB spillover for next year?

I really dont see EB giving 14K visas. With normal consumption EB2ROW will give us 6-8K but basically nothing else from other categories. Even EB2ROW might not give 8K. I can't see a scenario where we get more than 10K EB spillover

[Gcsep09]

What about Eb1, Eb4, Eb5 categories any spillovers from those
and worst case scenario for FB spillover other than 0.

[suninphx]

I really dont see EB giving 14K visas. With normal consumption EB2ROW will give us 6-8K but basically nothing else from other categories. Even EB2ROW might not give 8K. I can't see a scenario where we get more than 10K EB spillover

Why would EB1 not give anything?

[Maksimus]

Based on a Trackitt user's SR response from USCIS, looks like the visas for 2013 are done. For the unlucky ones who did not receive it this time (like yours truly) the wait continues for up to another year! :mad:

If they knew they didn't have enough demand to cover all applications until June 15, 2008, I wonder why CO kept the dates unchanged for October 2013? :confused:


U.S. Department of Homeland Security
P. O. BOX 851488 - DEPT. A
TEXAS SERVICE CENTER
MESQUITE,TX 75185

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Emailed to ###################

Dear ************:

On 09/04/2013 you, or the designated representative shown below, contacted us about your case. Some of the key information given to us at that time was the following:

Caller indicated they are:
-- Applicant or Petitioner

Attorney Name:
-- Information not available

Case type:
-- I485

Filing date:
-- 01/10/2012

Receipt #:
-- SRC-**********************

Referral ID:
****************
Beneficiary (if you filed for someone else):
-- Information not available

Your USCIS Account Number (A-number):
-- ***********

Type of service requested:
-- Outside Normal Processing Times


The status of this service request is:

The Department of State has informed U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) that all employment-based immigrant visas have been distributed for fiscal year 2013. Every fiscal year (October 1st � September 30th), at least 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas are made available to qualified applicants who seek to immigrate based on an offer of employment to the principal applicant. Please visit www.uscis.gov for more information about employment-based immigration. To view the Department of State�s Visa Bulletin, please visit www.state.gov.

XM1058
-------------------------------
Online Services
We offer many online services and tools to help you find the information you need. Please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov for information about:
* Using our Case Status Online tool;
* Signing up for case status updates;
* Checking processing times;
* Submitting an e-Request to inquire about certain applications and petitions;
* Using our Office Locator;
* Using InfoPass to schedule an appointment; and
* Downloading forms.

Address Changes
If you move, please provide us with an updated address. For more information about address changes, please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov/ar-11, and click on "Change Your Address Online."

For More Information
If you do not find the information you need through our online services and need further assistance, you may contact our National Customer Service Center at 1-800-375-5283 or 1-800-767-1833 (TDD for the hearing impaired).

[garihc27]

i assume u mean your own cases. Theres an online USCIS status check website. Google it. It asks for your receipt numbers. You alos have the option to set up text and email alerts when status changes.

Vizcard, Thanks! Yes I meant my own case. Will there be separate receipt numbers for EAD, AOD and Advance Parole. Sorry newbie to this process.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Based on a Trackitt user's SR response from USCIS, looks like the visas for 2013 are done. For the unlucky ones who did not receive it this time (like yours truly) the wait continues for up to another year! :mad:

If they knew they didn't have enough demand to cover all applications until June 15, 2008, I wonder why CO kept the dates unchanged for October 2013? :confused:


Fret not my friend. Even if they ran out for the year, you will still be current in October which is fiscal year 2014. I'll refer you to my prior post here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=40342#post40342), where I discuss this.

It doesn't matter that visa numbers ran out for the year, since the dates did not retrogress in the October bulletin. The USCIS will have 27% of 40,000 visa numbers available to EB2 in October to issue whatever visa numbers are required by EB2I. Any application picked up will have the visa numbers available to allocate, so do everything you can on Oct 1st (call L2, get an SR issued, set up an infopass appointment, use your senator and/or congressman) to get them to look at your application.

Either CO believes that the number of original applicants (not first time I485 filers) is less than 2,850 so he can provide those visa numbers from EB2Is regular quota and then retrogress it to where EB3I is, or he is not shy about using up other EB2 visa numbers (essentially QSP). The latter possibility dovetails well with Sports' point a few posts back where he speculates that the PERM slowdown may have decreased EB2ROW processing significantly enough that CO is willing to engage in QSP.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Thanks for the inputs Pedro.

How long do you think a case takes to preadj once it is filed for the first time with USCIS. I am trying to see how many first time I-485 filers who filed in Aug 2013 will have their cases preadj before the dates eventually retrogress in Nov / Dec.

I think they'll stick to the 4 month processing time and perhaps even longer given how busy they'll have been in August and September. So, come Nov 1, I think fewer than 5% of first time filers will have been processed.

A quick check on the trackitt tracker should give you an idea. compare the total number of I485 applied (RD or ND) in August 2013, and compare that to approvals in August or September 2013. I doubt there'll be more than a handful approved so far, although that number may go up in October.

[pseudonym]

Based on a Trackitt user's SR response from USCIS, looks like the visas for 2013 are done. For the unlucky ones who did not receive it this time (like yours truly) the wait continues for up to another year! :mad:

If they knew they didn't have enough demand to cover all applications until June 15, 2008, I wonder why CO kept the dates unchanged for October 2013? :confused:


U.S. Department of Homeland Security
P. O. BOX 851488 - DEPT. A
TEXAS SERVICE CENTER
MESQUITE,TX 75185

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Emailed to ###################

Dear ************:

On 09/04/2013 you, or the designated representative shown below, contacted us about your case. Some of the key information given to us at that time was the following:

Caller indicated they are:
-- Applicant or Petitioner

Attorney Name:
-- Information not available

Case type:
-- I485

Filing date:
-- 01/10/2012

Receipt #:
-- SRC-**********************

Referral ID:
****************
Beneficiary (if you filed for someone else):
-- Information not available

Your USCIS Account Number (A-number):
-- ***********

Type of service requested:
-- Outside Normal Processing Times


The status of this service request is:

The Department of State has informed U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) that all employment-based immigrant visas have been distributed for fiscal year 2013. Every fiscal year (October 1st � September 30th), at least 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas are made available to qualified applicants who seek to immigrate based on an offer of employment to the principal applicant. Please visit www.uscis.gov for more information about employment-based immigration. To view the Department of State�s Visa Bulletin, please visit www.state.gov.

XM1058
-------------------------------
Online Services
We offer many online services and tools to help you find the information you need. Please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov for information about:
* Using our Case Status Online tool;
* Signing up for case status updates;
* Checking processing times;
* Submitting an e-Request to inquire about certain applications and petitions;
* Using our Office Locator;
* Using InfoPass to schedule an appointment; and
* Downloading forms.

Address Changes
If you move, please provide us with an updated address. For more information about address changes, please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov/ar-11, and click on "Change Your Address Online."

For More Information
If you do not find the information you need through our online services and need further assistance, you may contact our National Customer Service Center at 1-800-375-5283 or 1-800-767-1833 (TDD for the hearing impaired).

That is frustrating!! I really hope that is not the case. I just received a response today to the SR that I had opened as well, but fortunately it did not have same message. I do not know whether they really need to do additional checks or if it is just a delay tactic, but below is the message I received:

-----------------------------------
U.S. Department of Homeland Security
P. O. BOX 851488 - DEPT. A
TEXAS SERVICE CENTER
MESQUITE,TX 75185

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Emailed to xxxxx@GMAIL.COM

Dear xxxx xxxx:

On 09/05/2013 you, or the designated representative shown below, contacted us about your case. Some of the key information given to us at that time was the following:

Caller indicated they are:
-- Applicant or Petitioner

Attorney Name:
-- Information not available

Case type:
-- I485

Filing date:
-- 02/15/2012

Receipt #:
-- SRC-12-901-xxxxx

Referral ID:
xxxxxxxx
Beneficiary (if you filed for someone else):
-- Information not available

Your USCIS Account Number (A-number):
-- xxxxx

Type of service requested:
-- Outside Normal Processing Times


The status of this service request is:

We have received your service request and researched the status of your case. We had to perform an additional review and this has caused a delay in processing time. Your case is currently under review. You should receive a decision or notice of further action within 90 days.

XM1317

If you have any further questions, please call the National Customer Service Center 1-800-375-5283.

If you move, please provide us with an updated address. For more information about address changes, please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov/ar-11, and click on "Change Your Address Online."
-------------------------------

[engineer]

Gurus, pls help me understand the following....
I got the response that my file is now with an adjudicating officer. But the concern is when I called last week L2 officer said my case is already pre-adj in June and my case is in background review again. Today I got the response that file is now with an adjudicating officer.
Is adjudicating officer and immigration officer who approves and assign visa number are the same or different.
I m confused and worried by reading the post about visa is over for 2013.
Pd = march 2008, eb2 - I
Thanks for u r time.

[vizcard]

Vizcard, Thanks! Yes I meant my own case. Will there be separate receipt numbers for EAD, AOD and Advance Parole. Sorry newbie to this process.

Yes. U get separate receipt numbers for each form and for each applicant. So ur 485 and that for a dependent would have 2 diff receipt numbers.

[pseudonym]

Only 3 approvals on the Trackitt tracker today compared to 20+ approvals per day over the last couple of weeks. Could the visa numbers really be over? :mad:

I had opened a case with the USCIS ombudsman last weekend, not just to get an update on my case status but to outline how the USCIS has been approving cases apparently in random order without any apparent queuing system based on PD or RD. Not sure it will help any, especially if numbers are over by now. It's just extremely frustrating to have seen so many May and June approvals while folks with relatively earlier PDs are still sitting waiting for approval. Absolutely frustrating.

[indiani]

Only 3 approvals on the Trackitt tracker today compared to 20+ approvals per day over the last couple of weeks. Could the visa numbers really be over? :mad:

I had opened a case with the USCIS ombudsman last weekend, not just to get an update on my case status but to outline how the USCIS has been approving cases apparently in random order without any apparent queuing system based on PD or RD. Not sure it will help any, especially if numbers are over by now. It's just extremely frustrating to have seen so many May and June approvals while folks with relatively earlier PDs are still sitting waiting for approval. Absolutely frustrating.

The visas might have been exhausted for this fiscal year. Good news is COD is still june 2008 for oct

[RogerFederer]

Couple of more days will give some info.. still there r chances for current pds to get a number..

I know when I say be patient, how easy to say..and how difficult it is for the one who actually feels the pain..

All I can say keep up hope.. hope for the better..

[Maksimus]

Fret not my friend. Even if they ran out for the year, you will still be current in October which is fiscal year 2014. I'll refer you to my prior post here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=40342#post40342), where I discuss this.

It doesn't matter that visa numbers ran out for the year, since the dates did not retrogress in the October bulletin. The USCIS will have 27% of 40,000 visa numbers available to EB2 in October to issue whatever visa numbers are required by EB2I. Any application picked up will have the visa numbers available to allocate, so do everything you can on Oct 1st (call L2, get an SR issued, set up an infopass appointment, use your senator and/or congressman) to get them to look at your application.

Either CO believes that the number of original applicants (not first time I485 filers) is less than 2,850 so he can provide those visa numbers from EB2Is regular quota and then retrogress it to where EB3I is, or he is not shy about using up other EB2 visa numbers (essentially QSP). The latter possibility dovetails well with Sports' point a few posts back where he speculates that the PERM slowdown may have decreased EB2ROW processing significantly enough that CO is willing to engage in QSP.

Thanks Pedro, for your words of encouragement! It gives me hope. Also another Trackitt user just spoke to an L2 officer who informed him/her that all visas have been assigned to cases until Sept 30 and those who didn't get a visa assigned will get another chance come Oct 1 when the numbers reset. So I'm hoping I either got a number assigned or will stand a chance in Oct. Question is, at what stage did they distribute the numbers to pending cases and how do we find out if my case was assigned one?

[Jagan01]

I think its still a possibility based on the spill over.
1. From Jun 15 08 to Oct 1st 09- apprx: 18K case
2. Eb3-Eb2 who have filed 485 this time but will in 2014 quota: 4k apprx
3. Miscellaneous: 2k appr
Total cases Needed to cover sep 09 PD: 22k.
Estimate on available visas:
Reg quota: 3k
EB spill Over: 14 k ---what are the chances of getting this spillover from EB
FB: There is lot of discussion going on saying it will be less.
4K spill over--what are the possiblities
Total:
3k+14k(subject to change) + 4k (subject to change): 21K

what is the probability of 14K EB and 4K FB spillover for next year?

I would say that assuming 14k EB spillover is just day dreaming. In my previous post I had clearly explained the demand.
Demand:
June - Dec 08 --> 8k
Jan - Sep 09 --> 12k
Visas not approved before June 08 --> 3k (This is coming from trackitt data)
Total Minimum Demand --> 8+12+3 --> 23k

This figure of 23k assumes that porting stops today. That is not going to happen. Oct dates are at Jun 08, thus porting will continue at least until end of Oct. If the dates stay the same in Nov then more porting.

Even with all the high numbers of 14k EB spillover and 4k FB spillover, you only have 21k supply. that is just good enough to go till June 2009. Hence, the best case is June 2009. Again, that is not realistic but only best case.

I think we should be very lucky to go beyond Mar 2009.

[gc2008]

Hi All,
Sorry for posting in this section. I request admins to move to the relevant section once somebody answers my question. This is regarding my Mother in-law's B2 visa. She applied her visa last year(2012) in June and was approved for only one year. I sponsored that visa. Now she is going for visa renewal. I think she is eligible to apply through drop box. My question is does she need to submit all supporting documents like her financial documents, my I 134, my proof of immigration status along with her DS 160, photos and visa fee.
Please let me know if some body had applied through drop box for B2 visa lately.

Happy Friday!!!

Thanks

Best Regards

[infoseek]

Friends,
Just an FYI. Apologies if this has already been posted. ESP ..since many of us are eager for news on our status .. please beware. Posting it here ... as it seems to be most visited.

"August 20, 2013
In an email to stakeholders dated 8/20/13, USCIS announced that a new telephone scam is targeting current USCIS applicants and petitioners. The scammers ask for social security numbers, passport numbers, or A-numbers, and claim there is information that needs correcting for a fee.


The USCIS never asks for payment over the phone, and if you receive a call like this, do not give any information. If you are already a victim of this scam, please report it to the Federal Trade Commission at https://www.ftccomplaintassistant.gov/, or report it to an appropriate state authority. (Visit www.uscis.gov/avoidscams for information on where to report scams in your state.)"

Source:http://www.wsmimmigration.com/immigration-law-updates/

[vizcard]

Thanks for sharing. There are tons out there who prey on the anxieties and vulnerabilities of others.

[mesan123]

Just an Update to people who are current. one of my friends status changed to card production on Friday and he got his physical green card in mail today( for him and his wife). he just called me to share the good news..

[JosephM]

Got EAD/AP card production email today. Thank God!!
PD 12/15/2007 RD 08/06/2013, TSC

[engineer]

Thanks mesan for sharing that. It means approvals are still happening..some hope there..for this week then...
the only thing ...is not every one is on Qs or trackitt and update delegently..

[helooo]

Hi Gurus,
When can we expect Demand Data or other visa no information?
Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Heloo demand data is published right before the visa bulletin. So generally second week of every month is when you should expect it.

Not sure what else you are asking.


Hi Gurus,
When can we expect Demand Data or other visa no information?
Thanks!

[qesehmk]

All ... we will use this thread for 2014.

The 2013 posts are moved to this thread. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2227-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013

The current thread will be cleaned off 2013 posts over time.

[Vkkpnm]

NewsFlash! FY13 Employment-Based Visa Number Limits Reached

http://www.murthy.com/2013/09/27/newsflash-fy13-employment-based-visa-number-limits-reached/

[primus]

NewsFlash! FY13 Employment-Based Visa Number Limits Reached

http://www.murthy.com/2013/09/27/newsflash-fy13-employment-based-visa-number-limits-reached/

Damn!

Anyway, how many EB2 visa numbers will be allocated to EB2 India every month from October 1st onward?

[JosephM]

So what was the idea behind moving the dates in Aug 2013 and Sep 2013 if there was enough backlogs to consume all the Visa numbers? Or is it that the dates were moved too much?

[qesehmk]

So what was the idea behind moving the dates in Aug 2013 and Sep 2013 if there was enough backlogs to consume all the Visa numbers? Or is it that the dates were moved too much?
They moved the dates just enough to consume almost all the backlog till those dates.

[Pedro Gonzales]

So what was the idea behind moving the dates in Aug 2013 and Sep 2013 if there was enough backlogs to consume all the Visa numbers? Or is it that the dates were moved too much?

This is actually a good thing. Visas numbers were not wasted for the year. Now, we wait for the demand data to see how much the dueling powers of spillover vs. porting had on EB2I demand. In the meantime, I'm sure approvals will start flowing again tomorrow for EB2I without regard to any limits.

[idiotic]

In the meantime, I'm sure approvals will start flowing again tomorrow for EB2I without regard to any limits.

Hi Pedro,

Just for my understanding..

Do you mean that approvals will start coming for those who had been allocated an visa number already before Sept 31.

(or)

Fresh visas will be allocated from FY2014 quota. If so, what do you think the max number of visas which can be allocated in next month?

[Pedro Gonzales]

Hi Pedro,

Just for my understanding..

Do you mean that approvals will start coming for those who had been allocated an visa number already before Sept 31.

(or)

Fresh visas will be allocated from FY2014 quota. If so, what do you think the max number of visas which can be allocated in next month?

Fresh visas from the 2014 quota. My read of the law is that the USCIS can use 27% Q1 portion of the 40K EB2 quota (note, not EB2I) to satisfy any application that is current. So, technically, if very few EB2ROW applications are current (due to the PERM slowdown, perhaps further affected by the government shut down) all of the visas can be allocated to EB2I if required. However, that would result in an overallocation of visas to Eb2I (effectively quarterly spill over), and I don't think CO is in the mood for QSPs, so I think he has calculated that there isn't much left over demand from EB2I. I don't think more than 3K applicants are left over (not including first time I485 applicants, who's applications are for the most part not likely to be processed by the end of October).

[idiotic]

Fresh visas from the 2014 quota. My read of the law is that the USCIS can use 27% Q1 portion of the 40K EB2 quota (note, not EB2I) to satisfy any application that is current. So, technically, if very few EB2ROW applications are current (due to the PERM slowdown, perhaps further affected by the government shut down) all of the visas can be allocated to EB2I if required. However, that would result in an overallocation of visas to Eb2I (effectively quarterly spill over), and I don't think CO is in the mood for QSPs, so I think he has calculated that there isn't much left over demand from EB2I. I don't think more than 3K applicants are left over (not including first time I485 applicants, who's applications are for the most part not likely to be processed by the end of October).

Thanks for taking your time to clarify..

[Kanmani]

Pedro, Congratulations on acquiring your Permanent Resident Status!

[PD2008AUG25]

Theoretically, DOL will stop processing PERM and wage determination from today. Let's say if this drama lasts for a month (like it did in 90's), will it mean higher # of SOFADs for EB2I? or does it improve the possibility of CO using QSP?

[Pedro Gonzales]

Theoretically, DOL will stop processing PERM and wage determination from today. Let's say if this drama lasts for a month (like it did in 90's), will it mean higher # of SOFADs for EB2I? or does it improve the possibility of CO using QSP?

If it only lasts a month, I don't think it increases the possibility of QSP, but if it goes for 2 to 3 months, then I think he's going to start thinking about it. However, if it lasts 2 to 3 months, we will all have other things to worry about.

Thanks K.

[venkat]

First time in 17 years and it has happened...The Govt Shutdown....

DOL's iCert system is unavailable. Both PERM labor & LCAs for H1B will be impacted

[infoseek]

First time in 17 years and it has happened...The Govt Shutdown....

DOL's iCert system is unavailable. Both PERM labor & LCAs for H1B will be impacted

Any guesses on how this would impact the Greencard issues? Several sites point to partial impact to USCIS but no clear information.

Murthy (http://www.murthy.com/2013/09/30/temporary-government-shutdown-how-immigration-might-be-affected-2/)
Mintz (http://www.mintz.com/newsletter/2013/Advisories/3435-0913-NAT-IMM/index.html)

[qesehmk]

Government shutdown and Obamacare discussion moved to
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2230-Obamacare-and-Government-Shutdown

[pdmay2008]

Looks like TSC started giving approvals today. Good Luck every one who are waiting.

I believe they can issue VISAs as long as dates are current in the VISA Bulletin. That's how EB2I got many approvals between Jan 2012 and Apr 2012. After that it went unavailable for that year. I know the law says different, but it is COs discretion whether to issue VISAs or retrogress internally.

[CleanSock]

On a different note, came to know today from a person in one of famous (or should I say infamous) desi consultancy companies notorious for misusing EB1 and B1s and H1s that the firm is taking some actions to protect itself from the wrath of US government in case CIR passes (because they usually have 100% of their employees on H1bs). They are initiating mass GC applications in EB1C and EB2 so that by the time CIR passes, many of them would get GCs and they can show that they have actually employed less number of H1Bs and more PRs and Citizens (if it applies).

If this is happening then EB2I people should get ready to wait another 10 years.

P.S : I personally know one person who just moved from India (in a managerial role) in one of those companies, just to get GC. That person was promised GC in EB1C to make him move here.

Sad but looks like it's happening.

[seattlet]

That company is TCS . This is because CTS and Wipro were already doing it. Infy is probably not in the picture with the latest management issues etc.
Once TCS gets them GC, most of those folks will leave anyways. They didnt do it till now for that reason. And the managers they bring to this country are fit only
to manage herds of folks who will jump from building if asked. I personally knew a few of them on L1 A who are asked to apply for eb1c

[engineer]

Speechless

[Vkkpnm]

Hello Guys,

I got following two messages for I485 at separate times today, what does the second message means. Appreciate your QUICK RESPONSE on this.

1. On October 2, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.
This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

2. On October 2, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.
During this step the formal decision (approved/denied) is written and the decision notice is mailed and/or emailed to the applicant/petitioner. You can use our current processing time to gauge when you can expect to receive a final decision.

[pdmay2008]

Hello Guys,

I got following two messages for I485 at separate times today, what does the second message means. Appreciate your QUICK RESPONSE on this.

1. On October 2, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.
This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

2. On October 2, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.
During this step the formal decision (approved/denied) is written and the decision notice is mailed and/or emailed to the applicant/petitioner. You can use our current processing time to gauge when you can expect to receive a final decision.

Congrats on your approval! Don't worry about those messages. You get bunch of them at least six per applicant until it gets delivered and status moves back and forth between CPO and Decision. It is all part of this madness. Enjoy green life.

[prem79]

Vkkpnm,
Congrats on your approval. Enjoy your green life.

[qesehmk]

VK congrats. The second message is the act of government making a record of you as a GC holder. The first of course is the act of printing and mailing your GC.
Hello Guys,

I got following two messages for I485 at separate times today, what does the second message means. Appreciate your QUICK RESPONSE on this.

1. On October 2, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.
This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

2. On October 2, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.
During this step the formal decision (approved/denied) is written and the decision notice is mailed and/or emailed to the applicant/petitioner. You can use our current processing time to gauge when you can expect to receive a final decision.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks everyone for quick reply. Actually I have tickets booked on 10-Oct for India visit for my family. I will be going with them in case we received GC before that otherwise I will be staying here until I receive GC and then fly to India. My concern is now, looking at the second message, If I receive welcome notice asking to complete any ADIT processing after 10-Oct when my family has already left for India, what are my options. Should I cancel my tickets for my family until I receive physical card? Earlier we got EAD/AP for myself and my wife. And my son AP was approved a day before but still waiting for physical document.

1. What are the chances that I receive welcome notice asking for any ADIT processing?
2. Generally in how many days you get physical card after receiving CPO mail?

[Pundit Arjun]

Hey Guys,

Let us now worry about what companies like Infy, TCS. Wipro, Cognizant and others do.

Yes, there are problems in some cases and we know about the way these companies handle the GC scenario (due to our connections with these companies) but believe me there are others who handle the situation in a similar or worser way. To our eyes, yes it looks like they are abusing but i am sure you would agree that these discussions do not lead us to better predictions. So lets leave the discussions and move on with our interesting predictions.

Have a bright day
~Arjun

[venkat]

Hi Guys,

Do you think CO is impacted because of the Govt Shutdown?

If he is not working will we get the visa bulletin for this month on time?

Do you think he will have enough data to justify a forward or backward movement? or will he play it safe by not moving the dates at all?

Lot of questions to think about.

btw, what happened to Spec and Matt?

[dexter2010]

Folks,

Has anyone seen this? If this is true and its really moving forward, this is good news overall

http://immigrationlegalblog.com/2013/10/house-judiciary-committee-approves-high-skilled-immigration-bill/

[qesehmk]

Judiciary committee approving it needs to be followed by congress and senate. Then only it goes for president's signature.
Folks,

Has anyone seen this? If this is true and its really moving forward, this is good news overall

http://immigrationlegalblog.com/2013/10/house-judiciary-committee-approves-high-skilled-immigration-bill/

[dexter2010]

Judiciary committee approving it needs to be followed by congress and senate. Then only it goes for president's signature.

Thanks for the clarification. I guess I was just excited to see some positive news after a long lull.

[qesehmk]

That's understandable dexter.

Thanks for the clarification. I guess I was just excited to see some positive news after a long lull.

[Jagan01]

I guess everyone has gone into the deep sleep mode :)

I was looking at trackitt data and saw that there are 62 approvals for OCt 2013. This number suggests that it Oct we are getting more than the monthly allowed visas. It can be one of the two scenarios:
1. Quarterly Spillovers have been brought into effect
2. People had been allocated visa numbers during FY 2013 and are being granted the approvals in OCT.

I think it is most likely scenario 1 that is contributing to the large number of approvals. If that is the case, the dates might actually move forward in Nov.
I do not think that it is scenario 2 as the approvals stopped around Sep 20, 2013 indicating that the annual limits had been reached.

Any inputs from any Gurus ?

[venkat]

Thanks Jagan for infusing life into this forum. Wow 62 approvals in 4 working days is a great thing..

I assume Gurus confirm that scenario1 is the case as i am someone who missed the boat by 10 days and any little forward movement will help.

[Jagan01]

Thanks Jagan for infusing life into this forum. Wow 62 approvals in 4 working days is a great thing..

I assume Gurus confirm that scenario1 is the case as i am someone who missed the boat by 10 days and any little forward movement will help.

Venkat,

It is 64 approvals in 5 days... Oct 1,2,3,4,7.

There are more scenarios for the high number of approvals.
1. CO might be applying the quarterly numbers in Oct. Meaning 280*3 ~ 800. If that is the case then trackitt approvals might stop at around 100 or so. With quarterly numbers of EB2I only, there wont be any forward movement.
2. CO might be applying Quarterly spillover. In that case we can expect ~ 3000 approvals. The dates might move forward if this is the case.
3. People had been allocated visa numbers during FY 2013 and are being granted the approvals in OCT. This is not the case according to my understanding.

It remains to be seen whether it is scenario 1 Or 2. Trackitt trends will tell the story. Tomo is very very important. I see less approvals today but generally Monday has been slow. However, Tuesday to Friday it usually is high on approvals.

[qesehmk]

I think they could be 2013 numbers being applied in october or people simply updating case status late in trackitt.

The chance that there is any quarterly spillover applied in October is zero. The reason being, spillover can only be applied AFTER at least one month is gone by, quarterly spillover can't be applied before quarter is over but then the timing of visa bulletin is such that Q1 spillover can't be applied before Feb of Q2.

Sorry for being a spoiler. But there is no point in having false hope.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I guess everyone has gone into the deep sleep mode :)

I was looking at trackitt data and saw that there are 62 approvals for OCt 2013. This number suggests that it Oct we are getting more than the monthly allowed visas. It can be one of the two scenarios:
1. Quarterly Spillovers have been brought into effect
2. People had been allocated visa numbers during FY 2013 and are being granted the approvals in OCT.

I think it is most likely scenario 1 that is contributing to the large number of approvals. If that is the case, the dates might actually move forward in Nov.
I do not think that it is scenario 2 as the approvals stopped around Sep 20, 2013 indicating that the annual limits had been reached.

Any inputs from any Gurus ?

I agree that it is quarterly spill over (as I had repeatedly said would happen since the last VB came out), but I disagree with your conclusion that dates will move forward in the next VB.

It is quarterly spill over only because the visa numbers used are higher than the EB2I monthly allocation. CO has no way of estimating at this point in the year what the EB4, EB5, EB1 or EB2ROW usage is going to be, to authorize the spill over in the conventional sense. He simply used whatever excuse he had at his disposal (that based on the information available at that time, he had no way of estimating how far back to retrogress EB2I) to prevent EB2I retrogression as early as the October VB. I suspect that he wants to provide GCs to all EB2I (including pre 2007 porters) so that the current frontier truly moves to June 2008. That will happen by the end of the month (with the exception of post-2007 porters, who won't all get their GCs).

CO can't really use that excuse again this month, so he will probably have to retrogress EB2I now. The best case I can think of is holding dates steady if he can make the case that monthly EB3I to EB2I porting until June 2008 is minimal. Even if he does that, by the end of October, he'll know how much that flow is, so he'll still have to retrogress in the December bulletin. Either way, I see no forward movement this early in the year.

In the meantime, EB2I would still have used vastly more visa numbers in October than its monthly allocation (but perhaps I suspect less than its annual allocation). What this means is that come the end of the fiscal year (in summer 2014), there will still be the full spillover available to EB2I. In the meantime, we'll probably see EB2I retrogress to wherever EB3I is (to make monthly porter demand irrelevant).

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I think it's better for you to be realistic.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I think they could be 2013 numbers being applied in october or people simply updating case status late in trackitt.

The chance that there is any quarterly spillover applied in October is zero. The reason being, spillover can only be applied AFTER at least one month is gone by, quarterly spillover can't be applied before quarter is over but then the timing of visa bulletin is such that Q1 spillover can't be applied before Feb of Q2.

Sorry for being a spoiler. But there is no point in having false hope.

To be clear, Q and I are essentially saying the same thing even though one of us is saying it is absolutely quarterly spill over and the other is saying it can't possibly be so.

We both think that there isn't enough information to gauge spill over, let alone allocate it and we both think dates are not going to move forward in the next VB.

Our only difference of opinion is that I think EB2I usage in October will be higher than its monthly allocation, and Q thinks that it is not. That is not a minor point because it has a bearing on what our opinions are on the final SOFAD available (whenever we make an estimate of it), but it has no significance now.

[Jagan01]

I agree that it is quarterly spill over (as I had repeatedly said would happen since the last VB came out), but I disagree with your conclusion that dates will move forward in the next VB.

It is quarterly spill over only because the visa numbers used are higher than the EB2I monthly allocation. CO has no way of estimating at this point in the year what the EB4, EB5, EB1 or EB2ROW usage is going to be, to authorize the spill over in the conventional sense. He simply used whatever excuse he had at his disposal (that based on the information available at that time, he had no way of estimating how far back to retrogress EB2I) to prevent EB2I retrogression as early as the October VB. I suspect that he wants to provide GCs to all EB2I (including pre 2007 porters) so that the current frontier truly moves to June 2008. That will happen by the end of the month (with the exception of post-2007 porters, who won't all get their GCs).

CO can't really use that excuse again this month, so he will probably have to retrogress EB2I now. The best case I can think of is holding dates steady if he can make the case that monthly EB3I to EB2I porting until June 2008 is minimal. Even if he does that, by the end of October, he'll know how much that flow is, so he'll still have to retrogress in the December bulletin. Either way, I see no forward movement this early in the year.

In the meantime, EB2I would still have used vastly more visa numbers in October than its monthly allocation (but perhaps I suspect less than its annual allocation). What this means is that come the end of the fiscal year (in summer 2014), there will still be the full spillover available to EB2I. In the meantime, we'll probably see EB2I retrogress to wherever EB3I is (to make monthly porter demand irrelevant).

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I think it's better for you to be realistic.

Thanks Q and Pedro.

Q,
The approvals are all dated in Oct. I-485 approval date is Oct. Hence, it cannot be that the users are updating the cases late. Also there is not a single approval between Sep 21-30. Which makes me believe that these are coming from the FY2014 allocation.

Pedro and Q,
I understand that statistics say that there will not be forward movement. I totally concede that based on numbers, we might not see forward movement and CO is trying to drain as much applications as he can. The results will be out once OCt Inventory is published.

However, I am getting this feeling, that CO will move the dates ahead. He knows that until EB2I reaches EB2C, he will have all the spillover to handover to EB2I. If he moves the dates to where EB2C is today, then he will still not be crossing the limits. I do not see this as either good news or bad news. In fact, if the spillover is used early then the movement in next summer will be minimal.

Purely out of intuition, I think that dates will move to 08/08/08. But of course the numbers games as mentioned by you says something else.

[Jagan01]

Hello Guys,

I got following two messages for I485 at separate times today, what does the second message means. Appreciate your QUICK RESPONSE on this.

1. On October 2, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.
This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

2. On October 2, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.
During this step the formal decision (approved/denied) is written and the decision notice is mailed and/or emailed to the applicant/petitioner. You can use our current processing time to gauge when you can expect to receive a final decision.

Hey VKKPNM,

Just saw this... Congrattts buddy...

[civilengineer]

What's the current guess for November bulletin?
To me it seems like high chance of retrogression, with slight chance of dates remaining same and no chance of moving forward. Is that about right?
Regarding how far it will retrogress, the lesser the better news it is for rest of the year, but hard to guess at this time. (?)

[Jagan01]

What's the current guess for November bulletin?
To me it seems like high chance of retrogression, with slight chance of dates remaining same and no chance of moving forward. Is that about right?
Regarding how far it will retrogress, the lesser the better news it is for rest of the year, but hard to guess at this time. (?)

Trackit has 90 approvals for OCT 2013. This would translate to ~ 1350 cases approved in Oct 2013. This surely is exceeding the monthly allotment and most likely would end up exceeding quarterly quota. It seems more probable that Quarterly Spillover are in effect. The strategy of CO is unclear at this time and any strategy floating around is pure speculation.

The interesting thing is this, all the scenarios are good for someone and bad for someone. Here is what people with different PDs would be hoping:
1. Jan 2004 - Dec 2006: Ideally they might want dates to retrogress to Dec 2006. This would give them a much better change of getting GC as they do not have to worry about 2007,2008 guys getting ahead of them and taking away their chance.
2. Jan 2007 - Jun 2008: They are hoping dates stay as they are today. Most likely a retrogression might take them out of the picture and hence they might want dates to stay where they are.
3. Jun 2008 - Oct 2008: They would be hoping that the dates move forward and they at least get a chance.
4. Oct 2008 - Feb 2009: They know their dates wont be current soon. They are hoping it retrogresses to 2005/2006. This would translate to less porting and hence less people in from of them in the queue. Eventually it gives them a better shot during Aug/Sep 2014.
5. Mar 2009 onwards: Just hoping that dates move forward. So they at least get a chance to hope. Frankly these people would be more concentrating on CIR then visa bulletin.

[magva99]

Jagan,

You seem to have good intuition. I was a silent reader of the blog for last few years. I was amazed at your guess predicting the GC for Indiani exactly. Hope your intuition of dates of EB2I moving till EB2C will also become a fact.

Thanks for summarizing the approvals from Trackitt. You are the new Spec for us.




Trackit has 90 approvals for OCT 2013. This would translate to ~ 1350 cases approved in Oct 2013. This surely is exceeding the monthly allotment and most likely would end up exceeding quarterly quota. It seems more probable that Quarterly Spillover are in effect. The strategy of CO is unclear at this time and any strategy floating around is pure speculation.

The interesting thing is this, all the scenarios are good for someone and bad for someone. Here is what people with different PDs would be hoping:
1. Jan 2004 - Dec 2006: Ideally they might want dates to retrogress to Dec 2006. This would give them a much better change of getting GC as they do not have to worry about 2007,2008 guys getting ahead of them and taking away their chance.
2. Jan 2007 - Jun 2008: They are hoping dates stay as they are today. Most likely a retrogression might take them out of the picture and hence they might want dates to stay where they are.
3. Jun 2008 - Oct 2008: They would be hoping that the dates move forward and they at least get a chance.
4. Oct 2008 - Feb 2009: They know their dates wont be current soon. They are hoping it retrogresses to 2005/2006. This would translate to less porting and hence less people in from of them in the queue. Eventually it gives them a better shot during Aug/Sep 2014.
5. Mar 2009 onwards: Just hoping that dates move forward. So they at least get a chance to hope. Frankly these people would be more concentrating on CIR then visa bulletin.

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

You seem to have good intuition. I was a silent reader of the blog for last few years. I was amazed at your guess predicting the GC for Indiani exactly. Hope your intuition of dates of EB2I moving till EB2C will also become a fact.

Thanks for summarizing the approvals from Trackitt. You are the new Spec for us.

Thanks for the kind words...

No one can replace Spec... He is the best when it comes to numbers and statistics...

I sincerely hope that everyone should get back to this forum... We need your guidance and inputs... Common guys... Spec, Indiani, Viz, Matt... I haven't heard from these guys for a long time...

Nov 2013 predictions ??

[Pundit Arjun]

Spec hasnt gone anywhere guys. From his last update, I am of the belief he is on vacation (Correct me if i am wrong) and will be back soon.
No updates from Q,Spec or Matt coz there is no new information for them or others to crunch the numbers on.
Q as always has taken a step to provide a rough picture.


Thanks for the kind words...

No one can replace Spec... He is the best when it comes to numbers and statistics...

I sincerely hope that everyone should get back to this forum... We need your guidance and inputs... Common guys... Spec, Indiani, Viz, Matt... I haven't heard from these guys for a long time...

Nov 2013 predictions ??

[venkat]

Jagar, you have put together very nicely...thanks for keeping this forum alive while seniors are taking a well deserved break...

[titanian]

Jagan you rock man..my PD is early 2009 & yes I want the dates to retrogress now (:-- !!!

"Oct 2008 - Feb 2009: They know their dates wont be current soon. They are hoping it retrogresses to 2005/2006. This would translate to less porting and hence less people in from of them in the queue. Eventually it gives them a better shot during Aug/Sep 2014."


Thanks for the kind words...

No one can replace Spec... He is the best when it comes to numbers and statistics...

I sincerely hope that everyone should get back to this forum... We need your guidance and inputs... Common guys... Spec, Indiani, Viz, Matt... I haven't heard from these guys for a long time...

Nov 2013 predictions ??

[SenorMeow]

Trackit has 90 approvals for OCT 2013. This would translate to ~ 1350 cases approved in Oct 2013. This surely is exceeding the monthly allotment and most likely would end up exceeding quarterly quota. It seems more probable that Quarterly Spillover are in effect. The strategy of CO is unclear at this time and any strategy floating around is pure speculation.

The interesting thing is this, all the scenarios are good for someone and bad for someone. Here is what people with different PDs would be hoping:
1. Jan 2004 - Dec 2006: Ideally they might want dates to retrogress to Dec 2006. This would give them a much better change of getting GC as they do not have to worry about 2007,2008 guys getting ahead of them and taking away their chance.
2. Jan 2007 - Jun 2008: They are hoping dates stay as they are today. Most likely a retrogression might take them out of the picture and hence they might want dates to stay where they are.
3. Jun 2008 - Oct 2008: They would be hoping that the dates move forward and they at least get a chance.
4. Oct 2008 - Feb 2009: They know their dates wont be current soon. They are hoping it retrogresses to 2005/2006. This would translate to less porting and hence less people in from of them in the queue. Eventually it gives them a better shot during Aug/Sep 2014.
5. Mar 2009 onwards: Just hoping that dates move forward. So they at least get a chance to hope. Frankly these people would be more concentrating on CIR then visa bulletin.

Really nice analysis! For the sake of everyone's good, though, I sincerely hope some if not most of these early October approvals were just USCIS paperwork based off 2013 visa number authorizations. Not sure if there is any precedent for registering PR status based on previous FY numbers, but I remember reading about it somewhere. That scenario combined with slow PERM processing for EB2-ROW due to the furlough should bode well for EB2-I this quarter. Thoughts?

[jackbrown_890]

The demand data website page shows it was updated on 10/09/13 but when you click on it, it shows the old (Dated June) DD. can anyone see new DD?

[SenorMeow]

The demand data website page shows it was updated on 10/09/13 but when you click on it, it shows the old (Dated June) DD. can anyone see new DD?

It is out now. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Cumulative demand prior to January 2009 EB2-I is 9000. Very encouraging at first sight.

[SenorMeow]

Really nice analysis! For the sake of everyone's good, though, I sincerely hope some if not most of these early October approvals were just USCIS paperwork based off 2013 visa number authorizations. Not sure if there is any precedent for registering PR status based on previous FY numbers, but I remember reading about it somewhere. That scenario combined with slow PERM processing for EB2-ROW due to the furlough should bode well for EB2-I this quarter. Thoughts?

Well, my bad. The demand data notes proved me wrong:


The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation

of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in

the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible

cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.

[natvyas]

If you look closely at the data you would notice that it is suggesting 148000 visas are available for FY2014 however the limit is 140000.

Is this a typo or are they declaring that there are 8000 from FB category?

[Jagan01]

Well, my bad. The demand data notes proved me wrong:

It was clear that allocations are coming from FYI 2014.

Good thing is that most applications prior to June 08 are cleared as demand is 9000 prior to jan 2009.

[Jagan01]

If you look closely at the data you would notice that it is suggesting 148000 visas are available for FY2014 however the limit is 140000.

Is this a typo or are they declaring that there are 8000 from FB category?

It can't be typo... The addition says it is 148000. I do not know if they first key in the total and then the other fields get populated based on the total. If so then it can be a typo. But I doubt it will be a typo.

[rosharma]

In last demand data EB2-I was 24,200 before Jan-2009. Its shows 9000 now. So they were actually able to clear almost 15, 200 applications. I am not sure if this demand data shows first time I485 fillers or not but at first sight this look very promising.

[erikbond101]

Demand Data does not have recently preadjudicated cases (Pre-June 2008). It will add another 4000-6000 cases on top of 9000 pending cases pre Jan 2009.

[GCKnowHow]

If we receive same number of spill over then 2008 should be cleared with breeeze by end of this year (USCIS calendar)

I don't see Spec these days. Does anyone know about it.

[SenorMeow]

It was clear that allocations are coming from FYI 2014.

Good thing is that most applications prior to June 08 are cleared as demand is 9000 prior to jan 2009.

Yep. And that statement combined with the disclaimer of 'unused numbers' usage all but officially confirm spillover visas being used.

[Pedro Gonzales]

To give more detail to erikbon101's point above, the 9K figure is simply the sum of all July to Dec 2008 numbers in the last USCIS inventory which can be found here (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)+ about 925 from June 15th to June 30th, 2008. No surprise there.

All the applicants current in October but who don't get their GCs in October (I believe this will only be first time I485 filers, i.e., EB3 to EB2 porters with post Jul 2007 PDs) will be added to this demand next month. That will be the final DD pre 2014 spillover (although it may have already used up most of the EB2I 2014 allocation, and perhaps even dipped a little into the 2014 spillover).

Also, that's when you can calculate what the real spill over is (well, that + how much EB3I demand falls from the Aug DD to Dec DD, which will help us estimate the # of EB3I to EB2I porters). Rosharma's 15,200 (+ porters) is the upper limit of what the FY2013 spillover will turn out to be.

The real news here, as a few of you pointed out, is the 8,000 extra EB availability (which I can't think of any explanation for other than an early estimate of FB underusage). They won't have the exact number until February/March, so this number may change in the March DD, but perhaps not by much. As Sports calculates, that's 5,712 extra #s, that may all eventually FD to EB2I (although if EB1 ends up using its full allocation, they can eat into up to 2,288 of that) in addition to whatever else FA or FD Eb2I receives. That could push us well into 2009, but the all important number, I still think, is how many EB3I to EB2I porters showed up these last 3 months.

[RogerFederer]

Demand Data does not have recently preadjudicated cases (Pre-June 2008). It will add another 4000-6000 cases on top of 9000 pending cases pre Jan 2009.

So after all as I posted before date can stay as it is or move further. If porting takes high speed then later in theyear date will go back IMO.

Good luck all ppl who r waiting.

[Jagan01]

Demand Data does not have recently preadjudicated cases (Pre-June 2008). It will add another 4000-6000 cases on top of 9000 pending cases pre Jan 2009.

Your assumption that "Demand Data does not have recently preadjudicated cases" may or may not be true. Starting OCT 2013, we have seen approvals for first time filers that filed in Aug 2013. Clearly these would have been preadj in or around Sept end. The demand data has data as recent as Oct 07, 2013. Hence these applicants may or may not have been figured into the demand data.

If they were in fact included then the 9000 figure looks even sweeter :)

[shreyasai2004]

what are the chances of moving dates in November 2013 Bulliten Is it will move another 2 months???????

[dorais]

The years from 2004 had not become current for EB3-I after 2007. Eb2-I cut off date for good part of 2013 was Sep/01/2004.

So the difference between EB3 Inventory and demand data for the years 2005, 2006, and 2007 would be porting.

EB3I Inventory Data as of 07/17/2013
2005 - 6871
2006 - 9055
2007 - 4041
Total - 19,967

EB3I Demand Data as of 10/7/2013
2005 - 6950
2006 - 8425
2007 - 2975
Total - 18,350

EB3I Difference
2005 - -79
2006 - 630
2007 - 1066
Total - 1,617

Total number of porters from May 2012 to Oct 2013 for the priority dates in years (2005 to 2007) is 1,617.

This also shows people in later years are porting that in the earlier years. Looking at these figures makes me believe 3k/year is a good conservative number to use for porting. Any comments?

[Pedro Gonzales]

I think this number is too large.
If you add the numbers from inventory data last published for the months June through December, it adds to around 8300 that shows that about 700 are accounted for.
8076 from July to Dec, so 924 is the remaining, which is slightly higher than half of June's 1,445. I don't think they've included very many remaining applicants, if any. However, I do agree, that in October they will clear out all applicants except for the post Jul 2007 porters, which I expect to be a lot fewer than 4 to 6K (1 to 2K is my expectation).


P.S. The reduction in EB3-I demand data is absolutely unreal...did anyone else notice this?
Sports, same thing here, it means nothing at this stage, except helping us get a little bit of handle on porting. The decrease from the July DD is 9.275K in total of which 6.825k is 2003, and the rest is porting. Of the 2.9k residual 2003 demand, 2.65k is Oct to Dec, which are not current. The rest of the applications are either still being processed, or have already been processed. If they aren't all processed this month, they get added back to next month's DD. I believe they will be processed and the VB will move forward the usual 1 week.

Now visible porting (up to Jul 2007) appears to be around 4.8k, which is lower than most of us had expected, but this hasn't yet taken out those EB3 porters that have not yet received their EB2GCs (although I don't believe that number is huge). Next month, we'll have a more complete estimate.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Your assumption that "Demand Data does not have recently preadjudicated cases" may or may not be true. Starting OCT 2013, we have seen approvals for first time filers that filed in Aug 2013. Clearly these would have been preadj in or around Sept end. The demand data has data as recent as Oct 07, 2013. Hence these applicants may or may not have been figured into the demand data.

If they were in fact included then the 9000 figure looks even sweeter :)

The DD certainly does not have recently preadjudicated cases, there are no such cases. People were either given their GCs or they are still being processed because their applications are current. Check this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/649-What-Does-the-Demand-Data-Represent) to understand better.
what are the chances of moving dates in November 2013 Bulliten Is it will move another 2 months???????
In my opinion, None. There will be no QSP until Jan or Feb and even then it's highly unlikely given CO's recent track record.

The years from 2004 had not become current for EB3-I after 2007. Eb2-I cut off date for good part of 2013 was Sep/01/2004.

So the difference between EB3 Inventory and demand data for the years 2005, 2006, and 2007 would be porting.
.....
.....

Total number of porters from May 2012 to Oct 2013 for the priority dates in years (2005 to 2007) is 1,617.

This also shows people in later years are porting that in the earlier years. Looking at these figures makes me believe 3k/year is a good conservative number to use for porting. Any comments?

If you compare the old DD instead of the old inventory, the total porting numbers increase to 3,125 (the difference attributable to CPs perhaps). Also, the reduction in 2004 numbers is also relevant because it is still porting (even if most of it happened before August 2013). That, I estimate at 1,675, and the total goes to 4,800. But like I said in my previous comment, I expect that number to go up slightly, perhaps to 5,000.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Actually, I take back what i said earlier. The porting demand is closer to 4.8K. I was only comparing the July 2013 to Nov 2013 DDs, whereas it is more accurate to compare the Nov 2012 to Nov 2013 DDs. So, I wasn't including the 2.4K odd porting that had already happened when the EB2I dates were retrogressed between October and July.

Total porting is 4.8K. The yearly split is as follows:
2004: 1,675
2005: 1,100
2006: 1,375
2007: 650

[dorais]

Are the previous demand data stored some where in this forum?

I found the demand data stored here..
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2060-DOS-Demand-Data-Archive-FY2010-FY2013

[vizcard]

I have a theory but i'm not sure if that's even legally possible. Given the number of Oct approvals and this statement from the DD - "All eligible cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits" - makes me wonder if CO is dipping in to the total annual quota already. I don't believe its legally allowed to issue the whole annual quota in any one quarter let alone one month but maybe CO can explain that away.

The 9000 in demand is about what should have been left if every case (give or take a few) in the demand data prior to June 15,2008 was cleared. There are probably 3-4K new applicants (incl. porting) between July 2007 and June 2008. I think the Dec / Jan demand data would give us the real picture for pre-2009 demand.

The additional 8000 visas are very interesting and a godsend. My high level projection for SOFAD is now around 14K (mostly from EB2ROW) which should clear 2008 for sure and get in to early 2009. Dates ofcourse could move further still.

[titanian]

now Q is whether this will happen end of Sep 2014 or QSP. Upcoming bulletin will answer that.

I have a theory but i'm not sure if that's even legally possible. Given the number of Oct approvals and this statement from the DD - "All eligible cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits" - makes me wonder if CO is dipping in to the total annual quota already. I don't believe its legally allowed to issue the whole annual quota in any one quarter let alone one month but maybe CO can explain that away.

The 9000 in demand is about what should have been left if every case (give or take a few) in the demand data prior to June 15,2008 was cleared. There are probably 3-4K new applicants (incl. porting) between July 2007 and June 2008. I think the Dec / Jan demand data would give us the real picture for pre-2009 demand.

The additional 8000 visas are very interesting and a godsend. My high level projection for SOFAD is now around 14K (mostly from EB2ROW) which should clear 2008 for sure and get in to early 2009. Dates ofcourse could move further still.

[helooo]

If it's 9k inventory before Jan 2009 and around 14k Sofad coming(Whenever).Don't the Gurus and expert think CO has to move date in order to have more inventory and also to pre adjudicate the new cases?

[idiotic]

I have a theory but i'm not sure if that's even legally possible. Given the number of Oct approvals and this statement from the DD - "All eligible cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits" - makes me wonder if CO is dipping in to the total annual quota already. I don't believe its legally allowed to issue the whole annual quota in any one quarter let alone one month but maybe CO can explain that away.

I agree. The reason for this is for benefit of USCIS as if they hold up these cases now for non availability of visa numbers then at end of next fiscal year they have to issue mass RFEs again. They can avoid all this by streamlining the process like this. There is no risk of overallocation to EB2I as the dates are still at June 2008.

[Jagan01]

If it's 9k inventory before Jan 2009 and around 14k Sofad coming(Whenever).Don't the Gurus and expert think CO has to move date in order to have more inventory and also to pre adjudicate the new cases?

I am not a Guru. However, I had raised the same question earlier and was told that the inventor is already available as there are many other cases pre-adj. Remember that the dates had moved to May 2010 and there have been several cases pre-adj and waiting. So no need to build inventory as such.

[amulchandra]

Actually, I take back what i said earlier. The porting demand is closer to 4.8K. I was only comparing the July 2013 to Nov 2013 DDs, whereas it is more accurate to compare the Nov 2012 to Nov 2013 DDs. So, I wasn't including the 2.4K odd porting that had already happened when the EB2I dates were retrogressed between October and July.

Total porting is 4.8K. The yearly split is as follows:
2004: 1,675
2005: 1,100
2006: 1,375
2007: 650

I am just copying and pasting what I asked Matt on Trackitt :

Looking at EB3 I inventory report from July 2013, pending inventory from Jan 2003 - Dec 2005 is 27520. Now DD shows 20550 as ending balance before jan 2006.
Looks like the numbers reduced are around 6700 which is the number of pending applications in Eb3 I before Sep 2003.
I think those are the number of SO visas EB3 I got from EB3 Row. And my conclusion is porting numbers that got approved between jan 2003 and dec 2005 are not reduced from Demand data.

So I think there are more porting numbers that are not accounted for yet

[bvsamrat]

IMHO- The unknown number of 4000 is very large and it just would not be right. Same goes with unrealistically high porting numbers put forward earlier. Any variation would not be larger than 15-20% maximum.



I think this number is too large.

Some first timers have already started getting green as strange as it sounds. Also, the demand data does include a portion of the first filers. If you add the numbers from inventory data last published for the months June through December, it adds to around 8300 that shows that about 700 are accounted for.

Demand for the pent up 14 months at worst should be no more than 4K. It should be lesser than that because of the massive PERM slowdown.

I think there would be 2K additional on this number if the dates retrogress today.

P.S. The reduction in EB3-I demand data is absolutely unreal...did anyone else notice this?

[helooo]

I am not a Guru. However, I had raised the same question earlier and was told that the inventor is already available as there are many other cases pre-adj. Remember that the dates had moved to May 2010 and there have been several cases pre-adj and waiting. So no need to build inventory as such.

Thanks for your reply.What I am thinking is the exact inventory before Jan 2009 and that can be known only after moving the dates to Dec 2008.I think all the visas will be consumed because there will be enough new cases before Jan09.They did not mention monthly inventory for EB2.How do we know if there is any cases pending before June 15th,2008?I am sorry but this is confusing for me?

[Jagan01]

Thanks for your reply.What I am thinking is the exact inventory before Jan 2009 and that can be known only after moving the dates to Dec 2008.I think all the visas will be consumed because there will be enough new cases before Jan09.They did not mention monthly inventory for EB2.How do we know if there is any cases pending before June 15th,2008?I am sorry but this is confusing for me?

Well for the CO inventory is the number of pre-adj cases tat he has. He does not care if May 2009 already pre-adj case gets GC before a porter from Jan 2009 can first time file I-485. So he has sufficient inventory. Almost 25000 cases he has that are part of inventory.

[vizcard]

Well for the CO inventory is the number of pre-adj cases tat he has. He does not care if May 2009 already pre-adj case gets GC before a porter from Jan 2009 can first time file I-485. So he has sufficient inventory. Almost 25000 cases he has that are part of inventory.

I think there might be a confusion in definitions
Demand - pre-adjudivated cases waiting for a visa number
Inventory - all pending cases (demand is a subset of inventory)

[Kanmani]

I have a theory but i'm not sure if that's even legally possible. Given the number of Oct approvals and this statement from the DD - "All eligible cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits" - makes me wonder if CO is dipping in to the total annual quota already. I don't believe its legally allowed to issue the whole annual quota in any one quarter let alone one month but maybe CO can explain that away.



Viz, you are correct.

Some months back I came across with the case details of a law suit filed by EB3C Vs DoS related to annual limitation crisis, eb3c was less located in 2009 than that of their original allocation, the DoS clearly stated that they have never released additional visas over the quarterly quota in 2009 or in any of the Fiscal years.

EB3C's challenge was to get back the lost numbers from the following year's spillover, but as per DoS's defense EB3C was less allocated because of the applicants' fault, so that the lost numbers cannot be retrieved in the following FY.

PS: I miss Spec here as I am not 100% sure whether the less allocated year was 2009 or 2010. Spec come back man!

[seattlet]

My prediction for visa bulletin for this month is that dates definitely wont retrogress.

Because, per DD there are 9000 pending eb2 I cases prior to Jan 1 2009

Per the last released employment inventory report, just summing up Jun to Dec 2008 itself gives around 9500 cases. So my understanding is that DOS assumes 99% of
cases with PD Jun 2008 has been issued GC (for folks who had applied earlier).

Of course thousands of folks with PD in 2007 - jun 2008 would have applied when the flood gates opened in aug , but as mentioned earlier, they will mostly not show up anywhere until Dec when second quarter starts.

So this quarter will mostly stay in Jun 2008 or move 1 month or so. Just my guess.

[qesehmk]

Agree with you seattlet that basis for retrogression doesn't exist. However don't discount the effect of ongoing portings. If they are more than 300 per month then that is sufficient a reason to retrogress to a date where they will be less than 300 a month.

That's how DOS has been operating for last 2 years as far as EB2IC is concerned.

p.s. - So in that sense portings becomes basis for retrogression if any.

My prediction for visa bulletin for this month is that dates definitely wont retrogress.

Because, per DD there are 9000 pending eb2 I cases prior to Jan 1 2009

Per the last released employment inventory report, just summing up Jun to Dec 2008 itself gives around 9500 cases. So my understanding is that DOS assumes 99% of
cases with PD Jun 2008 has been issued GC (for folks who had applied earlier).

Of course thousands of folks with PD in 2007 - jun 2008 would have applied when the flood gates opened in aug , but as mentioned earlier, they will mostly not show up anywhere until Dec when second quarter starts.

So this quarter will mostly stay in Jun 2008 or move 1 month or so. Just my guess.

[qesehmk]

Sport - kudos to you for posting this. Indeed mumbai consulate http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html has dates unchanged for EB2I.

Basically this confirms that most backlog until Jun 2008 is indeed cleared for EB2I.

Nov 13 bulletin seems to be out on Mumbai consulate website. EB2I dates remain unchanged.

I am not really getting it at this point. There was some backlog from 2013 that seems to be getting cleared from the 2014 numbers. Haven't we already exceeded the quarterly numbers?

[qesehmk]

..In order to clear all backlog, they seem to have used substantial numbers from 2014 quota. May be that's a wrong assumption. May be they used 2013 numbers and the act of sending out notices happened in October.

[Kanmani]

May be that's a wrong assumption. May be they used 2013 numbers and the act of sending out notices happened in October.

I Second that undoubtedly. This scenario is the repetition of 2011.

[qesehmk]

Didn't they explicitly tell us (also indicated in the DD) that 2013 numbers ran out in mid September?

It's likely they have used 700-800 in October ..
On #1 - yes indeed. But that doesn't preclude the possibility that the act of adjusting the residence spills over into October.
On #2 - It is otherwise somewhat likely (that they would allocate 3 times monthly quota in first week of october). Given the shutdown thought I would call it absolutely impossible.

[sdesh005]

Looks like Mumbai Consulate has posted the Nov 2013 cut-off-dates on their website already:

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB2-I: 15-JUN-08 (no change)
EB3-1: 22-SEP-03 (no change)

[fun4dddd]

On #1 - yes indeed. But that doesn't preclude the possibility that the act of adjusting the residence spills over into October.
On #2 - It is otherwise somewhat likely (that they would allocate 3 times monthly quota in first week of october). Given the shutdown thought I would call it absolutely impossible.

As I have been predicting in trackitt for few months that the eb2i dates would either remain same or move forward few months. this came out to be true
The CO made the deliberate decision t keep the dates for first year of new FY where the visa availability is minimal. This means that he does not see large demand as previously thought because of porting.
Unless and until porting becomes very large ( which is unlikely ), the dates won't retrogress...

USCIS is definitely using quarterly SPO which is a good thing for eb2i because instead of applying the SPO in the last month of a FY, it is being applied through out the year. The bad thing may be: eb2i may not see big forward movement in the last quarter of FY-14.

[fun4dddd]

Didn't they explicitly tell us (also indicated in the DD) that 2013 numbers ran out in mid September?

It's likely they have used 700-800 in October and no new demand has shown up due to processing times being crawled to a halt (I think the Gov shutdown plays a part here). If that's the case, we can expect retrogression in December...in any case though, I find this kind of "precision engineering" very surprising. That the DOS precisely found a date, managed to consume all visas and didn't leave a substantial backlog is very surprising. I think there must be some other explanation.

I don't see any retrogression coming in Dec as well..

[helooo]

I don't see any retrogression coming in Dec as well..
When do you see the forward movement?

[tackle]

When do you see the forward movement?

If I were to take a guess, I'd say it'll be in 4th Q of current fiscal year (Jul-Sep, 2014).

[titanian]

I think NO. Its not clear how they can approve many cases in October, first month of the year. But any visas, that are not used

before Oct 1st will be considered as wasted visas. To me 100% this is from 2014 quota. I think CO has to come forward and give a hint on the date movement for 2014.


May be that's a wrong assumption. May be they used 2013 numbers and the act of sending out notices happened in October.

[titanian]

If it is repeat of 2011, then dates should move well to 2009 or early 2009 before Feb/March bulletin. But I see a remote possibility for that. Their approach of retro and bring it back in Aug/Sep will be a good approach in my view.

[titanian]

If thats the case, what restricted to approve case between Sep 17th -Sep 30 ? When the case is all good, requested for visa number, it can go into Decision-->CPO immediately. I dont see any valid reason that made them to wait for 2 weeks. To me this is 2014 quota, and they are exceeding the monthly allocation and giving the entire annual quota in the first month.




Viz, you are correct.

Some months back I came across with the case details of a law suit filed by EB3C Vs DoS related to annual limitation crisis, eb3c was less located in 2009 than that of their original allocation, the DoS clearly stated that they have never released additional visas over the quarterly quota in 2009 or in any of the Fiscal years.

EB3C's challenge was to get back the lost numbers from the following year's spillover, but as per DoS's defense EB3C was less allocated because of the applicants' fault, so that the lost numbers cannot be retrieved in the following FY.

PS: I miss Spec here as I am not 100% sure whether the less allocated year was 2009 or 2010. Spec come back man!

[primus]

Visa Bulletin is out. EB2 India is 15JUN2008 .. what a relief :)

[Jagan01]

Q,

Did you factor in the EB1 approval rate in determining the spillover prediction for FY2014?

I see the below for EB1C from trackit data
FY2011 --> 73 --> ~ 1095
FY2012 --> 262 --> ~ 3930
FY2013 --> 193 --> ~ 2895

Does anyone know the reason behind low EB1C numbers for FY2013? Will this continue as we run into FY2014?

[Jagan01]

As I have been predicting in trackitt for few months that the eb2i dates would either remain same or move forward few months. this came out to be true
The CO made the deliberate decision t keep the dates for first year of new FY where the visa availability is minimal. This means that he does not see large demand as previously thought because of porting.
Unless and until porting becomes very large ( which is unlikely ), the dates won't retrogress...

USCIS is definitely using quarterly SPO which is a good thing for eb2i because instead of applying the SPO in the last month of a FY, it is being applied through out the year. The bad thing may be: eb2i may not see big forward movement in the last quarter of FY-14.

I have said before and would reiterate my opinion that visa numbers are coming out from FY2014 allocations.

However, whether Quaterly Spillover is being applied or not is not yet clear.
1. CO might be using the complete annual limit available to EB2I and allocating visas in Oct.
This limit is 2963. Trackitt has 126 approvals so far (~1890). If this is the case the approvals will stop coming around the time when trackitt will have 200 aprovals. Then dates would retrogress in Dec if porting can sustain 300+ applicants a month.
2. CO might be using Quaterly spillover.
This would mean a lot more approvals. If Quarterly spillovers are in place then date might not retrogress.

Both the cases are bad for EB2I PDs Oct 2008 to Feb 2009. This reduces their chances of big movements at end of year. That is the worst thing to happen. IT would be better if it retrogressed and then came back in Aug 2014.

I strongly feel that scenario 1 above is happening today.

[willywonka]

I agree that FY2014 numbers are being used. If the numbers were allocated before Sep21st and it is just the post processing by uscis that caused the approvals to be pushed into October, then how do we explain the lack of any approval in the last week of September ?

I think that CO is betting that there will be sufficient spillover this FY to accommodate the demand coming from keeping the date at 06152008. I don't think he is looking at this as a quarterly spillover. Given the dol delays, he is just betting that he is not going to run into a similar problem he had in 2012 of having to retrogress EB2Row.

Or he is just using the technicality that the demand from new 485s hasn't shown up yet. If this is the case, there will be sharp retrogression in December.

Either way, I am not happy that the dates stayed at 06152008. To me this only means that the final cutoff date at the end of this FY will not be as good as it could have been if the dates had been retrogressed already.

Anyhow, good for people who are current and still waiting because they have a cushion of one more month.

[justvisiting]

I have said before and would reiterate my opinion that visa numbers are coming out from FY2014 allocations.

However, whether Quaterly Spillover is being applied or not is not yet clear.
1. CO might be using the complete annual limit available to EB2I and allocating visas in Oct.
This limit is 2963. Trackitt has 126 approvals so far (~1890). If this is the case the approvals will stop coming around the time when trackitt will have 200 aprovals. Then dates would retrogress in Dec if porting can sustain 300+ applicants a month.
2. CO might be using Quaterly spillover.
This would mean a lot more approvals. If Quarterly spillovers are in place then date might not retrogress.

Both the cases are bad for EB2I PDs Oct 2008 to Feb 2009. This reduces their chances of big movements at end of year. That is the worst thing to happen. IT would be better if it retrogressed and then came back in Aug 2014.

I strongly feel that scenario 1 above is happening today.

Even before the government shutdown turning off the light at the OFLC in Atlanta, PERMs were taking longer and longer. There really will be a dry pipeline in EB2-ROW/M/P in Oct/Nov/Dec. The only cases that are "ready to go" are EB2-I/C. I expect a lot of "horizontal" spill over this year. There is jsut no way for EB2-ROW to consume as much as they usually do, if PERMs as back as February are not being approved.

[fun4dddd]

I have said before and would reiterate my opinion that visa numbers are coming out from FY2014 allocations.

However, whether Quaterly Spillover is being applied or not is not yet clear.
1. CO might be using the complete annual limit available to EB2I and allocating visas in Oct.
This limit is 2963. Trackitt has 126 approvals so far (~1890). If this is the case the approvals will stop coming around the time when trackitt will have 200 aprovals. Then dates would retrogress in Dec if porting can sustain 300+ applicants a month.
2. CO might be using Quaterly spillover.
This would mean a lot more approvals. If Quarterly spillovers are in place then date might not retrogress.

Both the cases are bad for EB2I PDs Oct 2008 to Feb 2009. This reduces their chances of big movements at end of year. That is the worst thing to happen. IT would be better if it retrogressed and then came back in Aug 2014.

I strongly feel that scenario 1 above is happening today.

My take:

2013 is a history now, all visas are coming form 2014 quota now

Quarterly spo is happening now

big movement is not possible, only expect small moves forward

dates stay same for few more months

[titanian]

I doubt the 9K numbers in Demand that is before Dec, 21 2008.

If this 9k has been arrived after excluding the pending visas number that were requested after Sep 17th, all those excluded numbers will be granted from 2014 quota. If that happens, EB2-I will go for retrogression until the end of Sep-2014.

Retrogression in november bulletin would have made me happy (:--.

Now only hope is delayed PERM processing.



I agree that FY2014 numbers are being used. If the numbers were allocated before Sep21st and it is just the post processing by uscis that caused the approvals to be pushed into October, then how do we explain the lack of any approval in the last week of September ?

I think that CO is betting that there will be sufficient spillover this FY to accommodate the demand coming from keeping the date at 06152008. I don't think he is looking at this as a quarterly spillover. Given the dol delays, he is just betting that he is not going to run into a similar problem he had in 2012 of having to retrogress EB2Row.

Or he is just using the technicality that the demand from new 485s hasn't shown up yet. If this is the case, there will be sharp retrogression in December.

Either way, I am not happy that the dates stayed at 06152008. To me this only means that the final cutoff date at the end of this FY will not be as good as it could have been if the dates had been retrogressed already.

Anyhow, good for people who are current and still waiting because they have a cushion of one more month.

[willywonka]

My take:

2013 is a history now, all visas are coming form 2014 quota now

Quarterly spo is happening now

big movement is not possible, only expect small moves forward

dates stay same for few more months


Can you guys explain why you are calling this quarterly spillover ? I thought Qtrly spillover can only happen at the end of the quarter or beginning of next quarter if 27k visas weren't used up by that point.

[willywonka]

I doubt the 9K numbers in Demand that is before Dec, 21 2008.

If this 9k has been arrived after excluding the pending visas number that were requested after Sep 17th, all those excluded numbers will be granted from 2014 quota. If that happens, EB2-I will go for retrogression until the end of Sep-2014.

Retrogression in november bulletin would have made me happy (:--.

Now only hope is delayed PERM processing.

Totally agree with you on the 9k. Real demand doesn't add up to a perfectly rounded number like 9000. It's just a fabricated number they came up with to justify keeping the date at 06152008. We have to wait till the inventory data comes out in January. Right? I don't know if they will release one this month because they did release one off-cycle in July. Even if they release one this month, it will probably have a lag of 4weeks or so and won't reflect correct current pending numbers I think.

[Kanmani]

If thats the case, what restricted to approve case between Sep 17th -Sep 30 ? When the case is all good, requested for visa number, it can go into Decision-->CPO immediately. I dont see any valid reason that made them to wait for 2 weeks. To me this is 2014 quota, and they are exceeding the monthly allocation and giving the entire annual quota in the first month.

Titanian,

Spillover visas are not distributed as described by you . You may have to read one of my earlier posts.........http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=36097#post36097

2011 repetition I referred to, was in the context of distributing the Spillover, not on date movements.

[Kanmani]

QSP is just a fancy term derived on the immigration boards. In reality, there is no such law that QSP should be applied the end of the quarter.




"the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who otherwise may be issued such a visa, paragraph (2) shall not apply to visas made available to such states or areas during the remainder of such calendar quarter"

Paragraph(2)- Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-based immigrants

[gcq]

I have a suspicion that dates are kept steady for the last few bulletins as USCIS is inefficient/overloaded to use up Visas from 2013. I had one of my friends whose PD was EB2 Mid 2007 chasing USCIS for around 3 months to get his GC approved. He had been current all this time. He was current around 1 year back too. However USCIS didn't approve his case. In the last 3 months he have been following up USCIS with service requests, info pass and congressional request. Finally he was approved last week.

If USCIS is this inefficient, CO could give enough time to USCIS to approve all the cases that have been assigned a visa number. One of the reasons USCIS may be overwhelmed may be the recent action taken by Obama administration to provide relief to illegal kids in the country.

[tackle]

[QUOTE=gcq;44221I had one of my friends whose PD was EB2 Mid 2007 chasing USCIS for around 3 months to get his GC approved. He had been current all this time. He was current around 1 year back too. However USCIS didn't approve his case. In the last 3 months he have been following up USCIS with service requests, info pass and congressional request. Finally he was approved last week.[/QUOTE]

hey.. were you talking about me? :).

Based on information included in the latest demand data, they did run out of visas towards the 3rd week of September which was the reason why there was no activity towards the end of last fiscal year. In addition to what is mentioned in demand data, some Trackitt users also got a response for SR saying that quota has been exhausted. So, I do not think the approvals we see this year are from visas allocated in 2013.

I think your friend was just unlucky like me to not have his applications processed for close to 2 years. I do not think the reason is that USCIS was overloaded/inefficient. I feel that USCIS is quite efficient in doing its job. I believe they used up all the visas available in 2013 (and did not waste them). I feel that the problem is with the process they seem to be following. Everyone that is current is considered to be at the same priority. So, once you are current, your PD does not make a difference. All you can do is pray that your application is picked by an officer who actively works on it. I think the reason why it took so long for your friend & I to get our approvals was that it was either not picked by any officer or it was picked by an officer who was inept at doing their job.

I wonder if there is anything we could do to make USCIS change its processes to be more fair & open.

[isantem]

One of the reasons USCIS may be overwhelmed may be the recent action taken by Obama administration to provide relief to illegal kids in the country.

USCIS is not overwhelmed at all, they exhausted all the visas 15 days before the end of fiscal year. What happened to your friend is just bad luck and USCIS not following the PD and approving randomly.

[titanian]

I was explaining the high level flow. I read your posting. To me this looks like a system glitch.

Situation:
request's for a visa #. An approval email for the request is not received, the reason is non-availability of visa number. Requester does not request to delete the request. DOS have the request pending until Oct 1st. They are approving the request after October 1st and sending it to central address.Is it the job of DOS to make sure they are not exceeding the monthly/quarterly/annual allocation ? I guess no. All they do is, just approve it when they have visa number in hand.
I doubt if the periodical limitations are verified when the approval is coming back after Oct 1st. May be key thing here is, not placing a deletion request.

This could be a system glitch, but I am sure all visas are from 2014. Until they clearly say, they do not exceed periodical limitation, we can have our own thoughts.


Titanian,

Spillover visas are not distributed as described by you . You may have to read one of my earlier posts.........http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=36097#post36097

2011 repetition I referred to, was in the context of distributing the Spillover, not on date movements.

[Jagan01]

Oct 2013 Approvals:
total = 142 (~2130)
first time filers = 30 (~450)

I firmly believe the approvals will freeze once we see around 200 (~3000) approvals in trackitt. That would mean that annual limit available to EB2I is used up. If we see approvals even after that then it would mean that spillover are being applied. I hope spillover wont be applied so early in the year.

On a side note: If spillovers will be applied and dates stay at June 08, then the biggest losers will be people with PD July 08 - Feb 09. There are approximately 3000 first time files in Aug and 2000 fisrt time filers in Sep. Together these are 5000 new filers and if dates stay where they are for a longer period then these 5000 would consume a lot of the FY2014 numbers.

[PD2008AUG25]

"the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who otherwise may be issued such a visa, paragraph (2) shall not apply to visas made available to such states or areas during the remainder of such calendar quarter"

Paragraph(2)- Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-based immigrants

I think it is the best explanation of what could be happening right now. EB2 has 10582 visas for this quarter. This quarter is sort of unique because of PERM slowdown + shutdown. CO is counting on possibility that ROW demand is not going to exceed 9100 (10582-EB2IC allocation of 14%) this quarter, he can keep allocating visa to EB2I. It is going to fine as long as ROW doesn't pick up pace during November and December. This is purely EB2 ROW play, no SO involved.

If this theory is right, things would go back to normal from Q2 as DOL would've opened up by then. Other theories like using up entire year's allocation don't make sense. I don't he could do that legally or has any reason to do so.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Kanmani. The bolded piece is what leaves this whole thing at the discretion of DOS.


"the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who otherwise may be issued such a visa, paragraph (2) shall not apply to visas made available to such states or areas during the remainder of such calendar quarter"

Paragraph(2)- Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-based immigrants

[helooo]

Thanks Kanmani. The bolded piece is what leaves this whole thing at the discretion of DOS.

Is there any possibility of getting spill over after first quarter?Thank you!

[qesehmk]

IMHO QSP is a policy matter and so unless anybody knows what DOS is thinking, it is impossible to predict QSP with certainty.

However we know for sure that more often than not DOS tends NOT to do a QSP.

Is there any possibility of getting spill over after first quarter?Thank you!

[gcq]

There is a practical difficulty for CO to do QSP. What if there is demand from ROW for the visas in later quarters ? If CO does QSP, he may end up in a situation where ROW demand is enough to use up all the ROW visas, but he had already allocated those visa numbers to retrogressed countries. That way he would be violating the country-quota rules.

[Kanmani]

I was explaining the high level flow. I read your posting. To me this looks like a system glitch.

Situation:
request's for a visa #. An approval email for the request is not received, the reason is non-availability of visa number. Requester does not request to delete the request. DOS have the request pending until Oct 1st. They are approving the request after October 1st and sending it to central address.Is it the job of DOS to make sure they are not exceeding the monthly/quarterly/annual allocation ? I guess no. All they do is, just approve it when they have visa number in hand.
I doubt if the periodical limitations are verified when the approval is coming back after Oct 1st. May be key thing here is, not placing a deletion request.

This could be a system glitch, but I am sure all visas are from 2014. Until they clearly say, they do not exceed periodical limitation, we can have our own thoughts.

The answer is a big YES indeed. DoS is the only agency who is solely responsible for maintaining the visa quota as per law/amendments periodically.

PS: I have several case studies which would support my theory. I am sorry that I cannot participate in a full swing right now,as I am currently in India.
Thanks Q!

[PD2008AUG25]

There is a practical difficulty for CO to do QSP. What if there is demand from ROW for the visas in later quarters ? If CO does QSP, he may end up in a situation where ROW demand is enough to use up all the ROW visas, but he had already allocated those visa numbers to retrogressed countries. That way he would be violating the country-quota rules.

The rule clearly says he can do QSP on a quarter to quarter basis. It doesn't matter if there is high demand in later quarters. Per country quota rules are not applicable in the quarter he does QSP.

[PD2008AUG25]

If there is QSP, he can do only during the quarter, not after it.

[gcq]

The rule clearly says he can do QSP on a quarter to quarter basis. It doesn't matter if there is high demand in later quarters. Per country quota rules are not applicable in the quarter he does QSP.
Can you explain how country quota is not applicable when CO applies QSP ? Country quota supersedes QSP. QSP is optional and it is at the discretion of CO.

[veni001]

Are the previous demand data stored some where in this forum?

I found the demand data stored here..


Monthly EB demand-data is stored and updated here... (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates)

[qesehmk]

Friends,
Not sure how many of you realized that for 2014 the quota is 148K i.e. 8K more than usual quota of 140K. This is very significant for EB2IC. Also the demand data is very encouraging. It shows low future demand as well as low levels of backlogs. Overall 2014 it seems will be a much better year than I earlier thought.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Friends,
Not sure how many of you realized that for 2014 the quota is 148K i.e. 8K more than usual quota of 140K. This is very significant for EB2IC. Also the demand data is very encouraging. It shows low future demand as well as low levels of backlogs. Overall 2014 it seems will be a much better year than I earlier thought.

Sports first mentioned it immediately after the DD came out and we had a brief discussion that it had to be the FB spillover but how unusual it was for it to be applied this early. I think it is a preliminary figure from which will be refined in February. Anyway, you are right to bring it up again and stress it's importance.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Can you explain how country quota is not applicable when CO applies QSP ? Country quota supersedes QSP. QSP is optional and it is at the discretion of CO.

I'm with gcq on this. In my opinion, QSP is legal, but it doesn't trump annual quotas. So, unless CO has a strong reason to believe spillovers are forthcoming, he can't authorize QSP.

But I wanted to clarify an important point that some people here appear to be missing. Once the VB is published, the USCIS has no discretion on whether to provide visas or not, irrespective of whether it exceeds annual country quotas, until annual category limits are reached. That is the only time they can stop giving out visas.

So for EB3I and EB2I applicants that have been waiting for their GCs for the last 2 months, subject to a) potential processing time expansions, and b) individual RFEs, they should retain hope of getting their GCs until Nov 30th.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Pedro. Was away on a camping trip over weekend so missed that action.

Yes indeed this number is prelim and will be refined after the DHS report (late this year) or as late as Q4 of USCIS 2014.

What is very comforting is that CO decided to throw this out early in the year - which means he is very confident that the number will be at least 148K.

Sports first mentioned it immediately after the DD came out and we had a brief discussion that it had to be the FB spillover but how unusual it was for it to be applied this early. I think it is a preliminary figure from which will be refined in February. Anyway, you are right to bring it up again and stress it's importance.

[dorais]

I remember F2A category became current in the last 2 months of prior year. I forgot the reason for that. Was it to build pipeline and not waste FB visas? If that is the case, then CO might have been too late to open the flood gate and expect to USCIS to use all the visas for that year. I have minimal understanding on the FB immigration and does someone know the forms/processing times for F2A?

I also see that F2A has a good portion of FB visas. (77% of 114200).

As sports said, hopefully we get more from FB this year.


I think it will be revised only upwards. This has to be a rather conservative estimate.

[Jagan01]

Oct 2013 Approvals:
total = 142 (~2130)
first time filers = 30 (~450)

I firmly believe the approvals will freeze once we see around 200 (~3000) approvals in trackitt. That would mean that annual limit available to EB2I is used up. If we see approvals even after that then it would mean that spillover are being applied. I hope spillover wont be applied so early in the year.

On a side note: If spillovers will be applied and dates stay at June 08, then the biggest losers will be people with PD July 08 - Feb 09. There are approximately 3000 first time files in Aug and 2000 fisrt time filers in Sep. Together these are 5000 new filers and if dates stay where they are for a longer period then these 5000 would consume a lot of the FY2014 numbers.

As mentioned in my previous post. The approvals will start slowing down once we reach closer to 200 approvals in trackitt.

As of today 162 approvals in trackitt for Oct 2013. This would translate to ~2500 real world approvals. CO will use up the annual limit ~2900 and then stop giving approvals. HOwever, if he decides to use quarterly spillover then the approvals will keep continuing. I do not believe quarterly spillovers will be applied. I firmly believe, CO will use up the annual limit of ~2900 visas and then stop giving approvals. I am getting a feeling EB2I will internally retrogress after this week and will be made U (unavailable) soon. If that happens then CO will be following a good strategy to not allow any more porting as no one can file I-485 if the date is made unavailable.

[qesehmk]

I also see that F2A has a good portion of FB visas. (77% of 114200).

Other than that these 3 things made F2A current:
1. 75% of those 77% are not subject to country limits.
2. F2A/B limit is 114200 + any numbers more than 226000 for the entire F category
3. F2A is meant for spouses of GC holders. Thats an odd category because usually the spouse would already be covered in some other category as secondary applicant while the primary's GC was being processed.

[seattlet]

I doubt this would happen. CO would have retrogressed the dates in this month's VB if this is the case. And if this were to happen he would have indicated this in the VB.
(he has indicated about such usage in the past when he was not very sure). The way he confidently put out Demand data with just 9000 EB2 I prior to Jan 2009 suggests
to me that only he knows the strategy that is in effect. Visa numbers got exhausted couple of weeks before sep end and hence he had 3 wks to know the demand prior to Jun 2008
that was not yet satisifed from 2013.

In my opinion he would probably keep the dates the same for longer. There are always folks who benefit vs folks who lose. When resources are limited - we all want the CO to act / work in our favor. some win some lose.




As mentioned in my previous post. The approvals will start slowing down once we reach closer to 200 approvals in trackitt.

As of today 162 approvals in trackitt for Oct 2013. This would translate to ~2500 real world approvals. CO will use up the annual limit ~2900 and then stop giving approvals. HOwever, if he decides to use quarterly spillover then the approvals will keep continuing. I do not believe quarterly spillovers will be applied. I firmly believe, CO will use up the annual limit of ~2900 visas and then stop giving approvals. I am getting a feeling EB2I will internally retrogress after this week and will be made U (unavailable) soon. If that happens then CO will be following a good strategy to not allow any more porting as no one can file I-485 if the date is made unavailable.

[veni001]

Monthly EB demand-data is stored and updated here... (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates)

One interesting observation EB3I demand reduced by 15,175 in the last one year (Nov 2012 to Nov 2013)

[gcq]

As mentioned in my previous post. The approvals will start slowing down once we reach closer to 200 approvals in trackitt.

As of today 162 approvals in trackitt for Oct 2013. This would translate to ~2500 real world approvals. CO will use up the annual limit ~2900 and then stop giving approvals. HOwever, if he decides to use quarterly spillover then the approvals will keep continuing. I do not believe quarterly spillovers will be applied. I firmly believe, CO will use up the annual limit of ~2900 visas and then stop giving approvals. I am getting a feeling EB2I will internally retrogress after this week and will be made U (unavailable) soon. If that happens then CO will be following a good strategy to not allow any more porting as no one can file I-485 if the date is made unavailable.

CO cannot use up an entire years visa in in the first or second month of the year. It is prohibited by law.

[Jagan01]

CO cannot use up an entire years visa in in the first or second month of the year. It is prohibited by law.

Any supporting documents ?

[Kanmani]

Any supporting documents ?

INA: ACT 201 - WORLDWIDE LEVEL OF IMMIGRATION
Sec. 201. [8 U.S.C. 1151]
(a)(2) employment-based immigrants described in section 203(b) (or who are admitted under section 211(a) on the basis of a prior issuance of a visa to their accompanying parent under section 203(b) ), in a number not to exceed in any fiscal year the number specified in subsection (d) for that year, and not to exceed in any of the first 3 quarters of any fiscal year 27 percent of the worldwide level under such subsection for all of such fiscal year

Jagan,

The chief of Visa Office is directed by the Immigration and Nationality Act to release only 27% (less than or equal to) of the total annual quota in the first three quarters of any fiscal year.

[Kanmani]

I may be late in pointing out this from the November 2013 visa Bulletin. Guys, Ignore this if it has already been discussed.

D. VISA AVAILABILITY

It is important to remember that the establishment of a monthly cut-off or "Current" status for a numerically controlled category (preference or Diversity) applies to those applicants who were reported prior to the allocation of visa numbers for that month. For example, all qualified applicants who were reported to the Visa Office in time to be included in the calculation of the September cut-offs, who had a priority date or rank-order number before the relevant September cut-off, would have been allotted visa numbers for September. There would be no expectation, however, that sufficient numbers would be available for the processing of cases which subsequently became eligible for final action during that month. Additional numbers may be allocated outside the regular monthly cycle, but only to the extent that such numbers remain available under the applicable annual limit. The availability of additional numbers is subject to change at any time and should never be taken for granted. This is especially true late in the fiscal year when numerical allocations are often close to or at the annual limits.

[PD2008AUG25]

Can you explain how country quota is not applicable when CO applies QSP ? Country quota supersedes QSP. QSP is optional and it is at the discretion of CO.

Law clearly states that per country rule isn't applicable in the quarter where there isn't enough demand for ROW. So if in later quarters demand is high enough, per-country rule will be applicable for that quarter.

[PD2008AUG25]

It is difficult to postulate what CO is doing. We can only let past history be our judge.

I think the real driver here is that the lack of EB2-ROW demand. Outside of all other constraints, there is another constraint that a fixed number of visas should be given out each quarter. Since the PERM slowdown and the government shutdown has started, there should be a severe lack of EB2-ROW demand, which in short term has kept the EB2-I date to where it is. In fact I will go on a limb and say that the date may move forward even in December (end of quarter) and in the best case, match EB2-C (Nov 2008).

In this scenario, it doesn't matter even if EB2-I exceeds its annual demand. Sure, some spillover is used here, and sure, people in later months of 2009 will lose out. But in the grand scheme of things, it is immaterial. It is October already and we will start the holiday season soon. With the shutdown prospects still looming, I think the backlog will just increase in near term, which will be a boon to EB2-I. I saw that Q has posted a very aggressive FY-2014 estimate on his site. I think along the similar lines. EB2-I will cross mid 2009 this year for sure. The question is how the forward movement will be accomplished (early in the year or later).

P.S. I don't think CO runs any deep optimization algorithm to derive his strategy. His algorithm should be very simple meant to satisfy a bunch of constraints. When he considers "demand", he must literally take a snapshot of approvable cases ready on day X at time Y and that's it. Finally, there must really be a strong disconnect between the USCIS and the DOS and that disconnect is what propelled the dates forward in 2012. CO simply applied QSP because for whatever reason, the demand from other categories was invisible to him and in order to satisfy the quarterly limits, he ended up pushing the EB2I date. Unfortunately, it is difficult to reverse engineer this because whatever internal metrics the DOS uses are unknown to us. That's my view in a nutshell.

This is exactly what I have been thinking. PERM approval now averages 200 days, that is even before shutdown. If you look at the trend since last year, that number has been increasing steadily. Last year it used to be 60-90 days. This quarter is a very good candidate for QSP, given ever slowing PERM + slowdown + weak economy.

If slowdown continues in second quarter, CO may not retrogress EB2I dates like we have been expecting. He may advance EB2I few weeks at a time to gradually use up excess visa. Real beneficiaries will be porters as there won't be retrogression.

[qesehmk]

Law clearly states that per country rule isn't applicable in the quarter where there isn't enough demand for ROW. So if in later quarters demand is high enough, per-country rule will be applicable for that quarter.
This is true. What is vague (and may be Kanmani can see through the legal jargon) is the interpretation of 7% country limit. Once a quarter is history - is 7% interpreted over the remaining visas or the full year limit? My hunch is it is the latter.