EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[bvsamrat]

My prediction: 1st month : Dec 2007 and 2nd Month somewhere in 2008 (most probably Dec 2008) and 3rd month go up or down??

[kd2008]

May I jump in with my numbers too?

SO can range I think from 12K to 32K depending on what the real numbers are and what the pending demand translates into.

As far as date movement for EB2I is concerned, I am not too optimistic on it making it to 2008. If my recollection of past history is correct, then CO will move first to 2006 and then tackle 2007 in the next month. This means a bunch of porters will join the line stalling the date movement further.

July movement is not a done deal either. If CO feels there are too many clouds hanging around on the horizon esp. with EB5 and EB1 usage, then he will be trigger shy and hold off movement.

[Spectator]

I'll play the game for a bit of fun, but it is a guess.

July VB - 01JAN07 - depending on his confidence level it could be pushed further, but that is less likely IMO.
August VB - 01AUG07 to 01JAN08 depending on what the numbers look like.
September VB - balance to expected available numbers (with a contingency to cover unexpected low use by other Categories) - maybe March/April 2008 at best.

CO has visibility of the numbers in other Categories, which we don't. Depending on what they look like, it might make a big difference.

Historical movement has been a bit confusing and what happened previously may not apply now.

In FY2008 and FY2009, there was no movement until the August VB. In FY2008, most of the movement was in August, while in FY2009 there was good movement in both August and September.
In FY2010, there was good movement in July/August and relatively little in September.
In FY2011, movement started in May, but most movement was in June/July. August showed little movement and there was no movement in September.
We know what happened last year.

Any guess can be made to look stupid when we see the actual VBs.

[infoseek]

My Guess:
No movement for July, Aug. There will be a move to 2008 more likely towards the end... this kind limits additional backlog via porting and might offer CO the best chance the clear the maximum from pre adjudicated. That being said I hope I am wrong... personally perfer steady movement to random jumps.

[geeaarpee]

I'll play the game for a bit of fun, but it is a guess.

July VB - 01JAN07 - depending on his confidence level it could be pushed further, but that is less likely IMO.
August VB - 01AUG07 to 01JAN08 depending on what the numbers look like.
September VB - balance to expected available numbers (with a contingency to cover unexpected low use by other Categories) - maybe March/April 2008 at best.

CO has visibility of the numbers in other Categories, which we don't. Depending on what they look like, it might make a big difference.

Historical movement has been a bit confusing and what happened previously may not apply now.

In FY2008 and FY2009, there was no movement until the August VB. In FY2008, most of the movement was in August, while in FY2009 there was good movement in both August and September.
In FY2010, there was good movement in July/August and relatively little in September.
In FY2011, movement started in May, but most movement was in June/July. August showed little movement and there was no movement in September.
We know what happened last year.

Any guess can be made to look stupid when we see the actual VBs.

Here you go... The spectator turns in to a speculator! What if you lose spec, will you stop predicting (rather calculating)?

Of course, just for fun - nothing personal please!

[sbhagwat2000]

Movement could be July/August and no movement sept, as USCIS will have load of EB3ROW apps to work on starting August

[Kanmani]

I don't want him to stop calculating, even though I desperately want him to lose, who would like April 2008 as closing COD for Fy'13? :-) How many of us turn into DHS/DoS/USCIS websites for previous years' numbers ? The Facts and Data Section of this forum is a mini handbook needless to say his hard work behind (Thanks to Veni too). Spec, keep going!

[MATT2012]

I don't want him to stop calculating, even though I desperately want him to lose, who would like April 2008 as closing COD for Fy'13? :-) How many of us turn into DHS/DoS/USCIS websites for previous years' numbers ? The Facts and Data Section of this forum is a mini handbook needless to say his hard work behind (Thanks to Veni too). Spec, keep going!

Yes, The Facts and Data Section gives us a lot of information. I am definitely sure Spec do put much time and effort into it. Kudos to Spec!

Regarding dates moving beyond March/April 2008, if it happens, will be an added bonus!!

[vizcard]

Yes, The Facts and Data Section gives us a lot of information. I am definitely sure Spec do put much time and effort into it. Kudos to Spec!

Regarding dates moving beyond March/April 2008, if it happens, will be an added bonus!!

It is bonus season at my company. I'd gladly forego my work bonus if I get my GC this year :) Unfortunately that's not likely.

[longwait100]

me too....nothing can be more valuable than one's professional freedom. Once we have the GC, I'm sure we can recoup these bonuses in our future work lives!

[Kanmani]

Yes, The Facts and Data Section gives us a lot of information. I am definitely sure Spec do put much time and effort into it. Kudos to Spec!

Regarding dates moving beyond March/April 2008, if it happens, will be an added bonus!!

Matt, I knew April 2008 is the halting point agreed by many, but 2009-ers would like to stretch little more beyond that.

[MATT2012]

All Gurus,

There was a practice of second finger printing until FY 2008, once the validity of first FP expires in 15 months. I know it did not happen in many cases last FY. Is there any official memo about when is second FP required/ circumstances of second FP waiver?

Thanks,
Matt

[indiani]

Matt, I knew April 2008 is the halting point agreed by many, but 2009-ers would like to stretch little more beyond that.

The only way 2009 PD could get GC this last Q is if CO will move dates until 2009 or later and skip most of the 2007/2008 PD applicants and give randomly like a lottery.

As there is very little accountability and their own lives won't get affected in anyway, they will do whatever they feel like, even though I suspect with so many pre-adjudicated cases its extremely unlikely that will happen.

Its almost impossible that there is enough spillover to cover 2009, b'cos lets say there was enough spillover then CO might have started moving in 3rd Q and not wait until 4th Q.

My intention is not to kill anyone's hopes but want to give realistic picture so they could make sound judgements based on more accuarate information

[Kanmani]

The only way 2009 PD could get GC this last Q is if CO will move dates until 2009 or later and skip most of the 2007/2008 PD applicants and give randomly like a lottery.

As there is very little accountability and their own lives won't get affected in anyway, they will do whatever they feel like, even though I suspect with so many pre-adjudicated cases its extremely unlikely that will happen.

Its almost impossible that there is enough spillover to cover 2009, b'cos lets say there was enough spillover then CO might have started moving in 3rd Q and not wait until 4th Q.

My intention is not to kill anyone's hopes but want to give realistic picture so they could make sound judgements based on more accuarate information

indiani, You made my day !!

There are atleast 36k regular applications ahead of me excluding porting, how could I even dream of that happening?

If suppose FY-13 halts at Apr 2008, May-Dec 2008 inventory plus porting will cover the entire FY-14 which would push 2009-ers to wait few more years.

My intention to stretch dates little more was atleast to september 2008, which will give a good start for the rest of 2008 + some 2009 ers.

I agree, my post was not clear, I could bring only 10% of my thoughts into print, my bad.

[indiani]

All Gurus,

There was a practice of second finger printing until FY 2008, once the validity of first FP expires in 15 months. I know it did not happen in many cases last FY. Is there any official memo about when is second FP required/ circumstances of second FP waiver?

Thanks,
Matt

The logical answer is NO because many 2007 PD applicants who applied in 2012 jan or before should have gotten repeat Finger print notice by now. We did'nt so they just wouldn't ask anyone to re-submit , as far as memo I don't know how to locate one.

[Kanmani]

All Gurus,

There was a practice of second finger printing until FY 2008, once the validity of first FP expires in 15 months. I know it did not happen in many cases last FY. Is there any official memo about when is second FP required/ circumstances of second FP waiver?

Thanks,
Matt




1. Multiple biometric data requests.


Many commenters pointed to the fact that applicants or petitioners must provide biometric data more than once. Some commenters considered the expiration of fingerprints submissions to be inefficient. Others suggested that it was inefficient for USCIS to again request fingerprints when they apply for sequential benefit applications. USCIS agrees that an applicant should not be required to provide biometric data multiple times for a single application. USCIS is developing the Biometrics Storage System (BSS) w hich will allow the re-use of fingerprints and, if an application or petition has not been adjudicated within the fifteen month validity period, USCIS will be able to simply re-submit the stored fingerprints to the FBI, without any involvement of the applicant or petitioner. See 72 FR 17172 (Apr. 6, 2007) (establishing a new system of records). Also, as a matter of policy, when an application remains pending, USCIS does not charge the applicant the biometric fee again because of a processing delay at USCIS.

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/FR/HTML/FR/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-123038/0-0-0-139104/0-0-0-139156.html

2. Question: What can be done to avoid repeated requests for fingerprints when it has already been established in connection with a previous application that the person's fingerprints are non-readable.

Individuals who have physical conditions which make it difficult to obtain readable prints are continually sent back for fingerprints, which delays the final adjudication of the application. This is a hardship for individuals to repeatedly have to return for a procedure which has already been shown to be unobtainable. What is the procedure in a case like this?

Response: USCIS policy establishes the validity period for one set of readable fingerprint results as 15 months.

Where a set of fingerprints are readable, the fingerprint result remains on record with USCIS and may be used to satisfy the fingerprint requirement associated with each and every additional form submitted by, and processed for, the same applicant during the 15 month validity period.
Where an applicant submits a set of fingerprints that quality assurance review suggests is likely to be rejected by the FBI as unable to classify, standard practice in the field is to take a second set of fingerprints on a card using the manual ink method. This card is submitted if and when the first submission is returned as rejected thus alleviating the need for a return visit by the applicant.

If fingerprints are deemed unclassifiable by two sets of rejected prints, applicants shall not be rescheduled for additional fingerprints to be taken, provided either reject notice is less than 15 months old. In extreme cases, where a biometrics technician cannot capture any fingerprints due to a physical impairment, a fingerprint waiver may be issued at the discretion of the Application Support Center manager. In all cases, whether the two sets of fingerprints are rejected or the applicant has been granted a fingerprint waiver, the applicant must complete a Police Clearance Notice and return it to the Application Support Center where s/he originally had her/his appointment.
If you have confirmed cases of individuals with unclassifiable prints being repeatedly rescheduled for biometric collection in association with an application or petition for immigration benefits, please bring those cases to our attention.

http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/MARCBOQA.pdf

[Kanmani]

isantem, In continuation of your posts in EB3 thread, below information could be helpful in the travel context.

"If I file Form I-131 for a reentry permit while I am in the
United States, can I submit my biometrics while I am
outside the United States?

No. When you file your Form I-131 to obtain a reentry permit, USCIS will notify you when to appear at a designated Application Support Center (ASC) to obtain your biometrics. You must provide your biometrics at the ASC while you are in the United States. If you leave the United States before you provide your biometrics, USCIS may deny your application."

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/B5en.pdf

[isantem]

isantem, In continuation of your posts in EB3 thread, below information could be helpful in the travel context.

"If I file Form I-131 for a reentry permit while I am in the
United States, can I submit my biometrics while I am
outside the United States?

No. When you file your Form I-131 to obtain a reentry permit, USCIS will notify you when to appear at a designated Application Support Center (ASC) to obtain your biometrics. You must provide your biometrics at the ASC while you are in the United States. If you leave the United States before you provide your biometrics, USCIS may deny your application."

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/B5en.pdf

Thank you for sharing the above info. I think based on what I will see in the VB on July 10th I will decide if I travel or not. If I do, I will file for I-485 just at the end of August when I will be back in country to avoid any problems.

[MATT2012]

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/FR/HTML/FR/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-123038/0-0-0-139104/0-0-0-139156.html


http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/MARCBOQA.pdf

Thank you Kanmani for the documents, I got exactly what I wanted from the links you provided. You have a great treasure of document links, truly amazing!!

[MATT2012]

Hi Spec,

Did you happen to see I-526 statistics until March 31st,2013. I am not sure whether somebody shared already.

http://iiusablog.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USCIS-FY2013-526-829-924-filing-stats.pdf

Thanks,
Matt

[indiani]

Hi Spec,

Did you happen to see I-526 statistics until March 31st,2013. I am not sure whether somebody shared already.

http://iiusablog.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USCIS-FY2013-526-829-924-filing-stats.pdf

Thanks,
Matt

only 1526 approvals in first 2 Q's and if there are total 3K approvals for entire year, does it mean rest of the spillover comes to EB2I.
I believe I do not understand this scenario completely but MATT or anyone else pls correct me and share any further details

[MATT2012]

only 1526 approvals in first 2 Q's and if there are total 3K approvals for entire year, does it mean rest of the spillover comes to EB2I.
I believe I do not understand this scenario completely but MATT or anyone else pls correct me and share any further details

I526 to GC conversion ratio is close to 3 times, if I am not wrong.

[indiani]

I526 to GC conversion ratio is close to 3 times, if I am not wrong.

sorry , I didn't understand, can you elaborate it bit more.
How is the conversion 3 times when 526 approval itself means conditional GC in EB5.
i thought 1526 are total EB5 conditional GC in 1st half

[MATT2012]

sorry , I didn't understand, can you elaborate it bit more.
How is the conversion 3 times when 526 approval itself means conditional GC in EB5.
i thought 1526 are total EB5 conditional GC in 1st half

I-526 is very similar to our I-140, meaning it is the stage to prove eligibility for GC with an investment. As many EB-5 cases are CP cases, once it reaches that stage dependents are added to it. So for every I-526, the approx. conversion is 3 times. My understanding is very limited, Spec or somebody else can pitch in to provide more clarity.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

Did you happen to see I-526 statistics until March 31st,2013. I am not sure whether somebody shared already.

http://iiusablog.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USCIS-FY2013-526-829-924-filing-stats.pdf

Thanks,
MattMatt,

Thanks, that is very useful information. I already had the Receipt (and Completion info) from the USCIS Dashboard. The Approval numbers are the last piece of information I needed.

The corresponding period last year had 2,100 I-526 approvals compared to the 1,526 shown in the report for this year.

Overall for the YTD, the approval % for I-526 is 76%, slightly down from FY2012 (79%).

Visa usage per approved I-526 has remained fairly constant at 2.9 according to the DHS Handbook. A simple prorating of the H1 approvals would result in 8,851 visa usage in EB5, but I do think that may be too simplistic.

[indiani]

Spec,
I think for each 526 there will be additional family members so the actual GC approval rate should be
1526x 2x 2.9 (approximately)= 8850

assuming the rate of approvals will be the same in the second half of the year. (I hope the approval rate drops slightly)

your post answers the earlier question i posed to MATT

[indiani]

11218-8850=2368 (SO)

is it fair to say that 2k+ SO will go to EB2I?

[indiani]

I-526 is very similar to our I-140, meaning it is the stage to prove eligibility for GC with an investment. As many EB-5 cases are CP cases, once it reaches that stage dependents are added to it. So for every I-526, the approx. conversion is 3 times. My understanding is very limited, Spec or somebody else can pitch in to provide more clarity.

Thanks for explaining, I saw your post after i have seen Spec's reply to you , both are quite clear in explaining total GC's. please see my SO calculation and see if you agree or if spec and you have different number

[indiani]

Last year's stats if anyone wants to refresh their memories
Priority workers 39,316
Professionals with advanced degrees 50,959
Skilled workers, professionals, unskilled workers 39,229
Special immigrants 7,866
Investors 6,628

[Spectator]

Last year's stats if anyone wants to refresh their memories
Priority workers 39,316
Professionals with advanced degrees 50,959
Skilled workers, professionals, unskilled workers 39,229
Special immigrants 7,866
Investors 6,628indiani,

I think those are the DHS figures.

The slightly more reliable DOS figures are slightly different, particularly for EB5.

EB1 - 39,387
EB2 - 50,593
EB3 - 39,549
EB4 - 7,478
EB5 - 7,641

Don't ask me why they are different - there are always some differences between the DOS and DHS figures.

[sbhagwat2000]

indiani,

I think those are the DHS figures.

The slightly more reliable DOS figures are slightly different, particularly for EB5.

EB1 - 39,387
EB2 - 50,593
EB3 - 39,549
EB4 - 7,478
EB5 - 7,641

Don't ask me why they are different - there are always some differences between the DOS and DHS figures.

The Good news is atleast something this year is lower than last. I think now I am pretty confident that EB5 can end at 9900.

[indiani]

indiani,

I think those are the DHS figures.

The slightly more reliable DOS figures are slightly different, particularly for EB5.

EB1 - 39,387
EB2 - 50,593
EB3 - 39,549
EB4 - 7,478
EB5 - 7,641

Don't ask me why they are different - there are always some differences between the DOS and DHS figures.

Overall there appears to be 50% increase in EB5 usage of i-526 in the first half and if the demand is the same for second half, then EB 5 SO is barely 1-2K approximately (which was already expected to be very low to almost zero )


I think July bulletin will give us more clues than any other piece of information at this time.

[indiani]

The Good news is atleast something this year is lower than last. I think now I am pretty confident that EB5 can end at 9900.

I don't know what you meant, the only category I am hoping will be lower this yera is EB1, as we already know EB5, EB2ROW will be higher than last year. EB4 I am not sure but there is no evidence so far that it will be lower

[MATT2012]

Matt,

Thanks, that is very useful information. I already had the Receipt (and Completion info) from the USCIS Dashboard. The Approval numbers are the last piece of information I needed.

The corresponding period last year had 2,100 I-526 approvals compared to the 1,526 shown in the report for this year.

Overall for the YTD, the approval % for I-526 is 76%, slightly down from FY2012 (79%).

Visa usage per approved I-526 has remained fairly constant at 2.9 according to the DHS Handbook. A simple prorating of the H1 approvals would result in 8,851 visa usage in EB5, but I do think that may be too simplistic.

Spec,
Though there is a 25% drop in first half I526 approvals, I do think that this FY the number will be between 8500 - 9500, given the fact that October 2012 had 3162 EB5 GC approvals.

[Spectator]

Spec,
Though there is a 25% drop in first half I526 approvals, I do think that this FY the number will be between 8500 - 9500, given the fact that October 2012 had 3162 EB5 GC approvals.Matt,

I agree.

For full disclosure, I quoted the last year H1 figure.

There is also a much increased backlog of I-526 cases to draw from. Even in the first half of the year, it increased from 5k to 6.5k for pending cases and those awaiting customer action. It is now nearly double the number in Oct 2011.

[sbhagwat2000]

Matt,

I agree.

For full disclosure, I quoted the last year H1 figure.

There is also a much increased backlog of I-526 cases to draw from. Even in the first half of the year, it increased from 5k to 6.5k for pending cases and those awaiting customer action. It is now nearly double the number in Oct 2011.

But realistically now I think we can say EB5 will not suck the extra FB visas allocated to it. It should stop at 9900

[indiani]

spec,
what is your estimation of SO EB4 and EB1 at this time.

If it hasnt changed from your 1st page prediction, you don't have to give any new numbers, just wondering over the course of time if you have any different perspective.

with AILA meeting at the end of this month, i think most of the arduous calculations might not be necessary for rest of this fiscal year.

[amytkats]

http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFiles/32e715a9-8b61-4b5b-8c77-980daa8b1b3e/Subscriber.snapshot?clid=5dc90fc9-8ae6-4e70-9dea-d99821dd2cc4&cid=6a13a1c1-d1d8-422f-ab63-4805a0a37e0b&ce=7Z3f5qM2QzWRq6yZI%2bi7U685P2fN5Gh6

[natvyas]

Source: http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFiles/32e715a9-8b61-4b5b-8c77-980daa8b1b3e/Subscriber.snapshot?clid=5dc90fc9-8ae6-4e70-9dea-d99821dd2cc4&cid=6a13a1c1-d1d8-422f-ab63-4805a0a37e0b&ce=7Z3f5qM2QzWRq6yZI%2bi7U685P2fN5Gh6

Thanks to amytkats for this information.

Executive Summary

The priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance as far as February 2008 in the August or September Visa Bulletin. EB-3 cut-off dates are expected to progress to January 2009 for most countries in July, though further advancement is unlikely for the remainder of this fiscal year.

The priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance as far as February 2008 in the August or September Visa Bulletin, according to Charles Oppenheim, the senior State Department official responsible for visa control. The EB-2 India cut-off date has been stalled at September 1, 2004 since October 2012.

EB-2 China is likely to advance no more than a few weeks per month through the end of this fiscal year.

For most countries, including China, priority dates for the EB-3 professional and skilled worker subcategory are projected to advance as far as January 2009 in July, though further progression is unlikely for the remainder of this fiscal year. EB-3 India is expected to advance by up to two weeks per month through the end of the fiscal year.

Mr. Oppenheim made his projections at the annual symposium of the American Council on International Personnel, held this week.

What EB-2 India Advancement Means for Employers and Foreign Nationals

If the EB-2 India cut-off date advances as predicted in the coming months, many adjustment applicants with long-pending cases could see their applications adjudicated to completion, and some foreign nationals who were unable to file permanent residence applications when their priority dates were current in the past might have a new opportunity to file.

The exact cut-off date will not be known until the State Department releases a Visa Bulletin announcing the advancement. The Bulletin is usually issued about three weeks before the month to which it applies.

When their priority dates become current, adjustment applicants with pending cases may need to provide supplemental documentation so that U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services can finalize their cases. Applicants could be asked to provide updated job letters from their employer-sponsors, and may need to attend another biometrics appointment so that new fingerprints can be taken. Applicants should also be prepared for the possibility of an adjustment interview at a local USCIS office. Though interviews are not routine in employment-based cases, agency adjudicators have the authority to refer specific cases for local office interviews.

Eligible Indian EB-2s who do not have an adjustment application on file with USCIS will need to act quickly if their priority date becomes current because the chance to file an adjustment may be brief. It is not known how many EB-2 India visa numbers will become available when the cut-off date advances, and many available numbers are likely to be captured by cases already on file, including an unspecified number of pending cases that have been upgraded from EB-3 to EB-2.

[indiani]

Source: http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFiles/32e715a9-8b61-4b5b-8c77-980daa8b1b3e/Subscriber.snapshot?clid=5dc90fc9-8ae6-4e70-9dea-d99821dd2cc4&cid=6a13a1c1-d1d8-422f-ab63-4805a0a37e0b&ce=7Z3f5qM2QzWRq6yZI%2bi7U685P2fN5Gh6


Executive Summary

The priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance as far as February 2008 in the August or September Visa Bulletin. EB-3 cut-off dates are expected to progress to January 2009 for most countries in July, though further advancement is unlikely for the remainder of this fiscal year.

The priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance as far as February 2008 in the August or September Visa Bulletin, according to Charles Oppenheim, the senior State Department official responsible for visa control. The EB-2 India cut-off date has been stalled at September 1, 2004 since October 2012.

EB-2 China is likely to advance no more than a few weeks per month through the end of this fiscal year.

For most countries, including China, priority dates for the EB-3 professional and skilled worker subcategory are projected to advance as far as January 2009 in July, though further progression is unlikely for the remainder of this fiscal year. EB-3 India is expected to advance by up to two weeks per month through the end of the fiscal year.

Mr. Oppenheim made his projections at the annual symposium of the American Council on International Personnel, held this week.

What EB-2 India Advancement Means for Employers and Foreign Nationals

If the EB-2 India cut-off date advances as predicted in the coming months, many adjustment applicants with long-pending cases could see their applications adjudicated to completion, and some foreign nationals who were unable to file permanent residence applications when their priority dates were current in the past might have a new opportunity to file.

The exact cut-off date will not be known until the State Department releases a Visa Bulletin announcing the advancement. The Bulletin is usually issued about three weeks before the month to which it applies.

When their priority dates become current, adjustment applicants with pending cases may need to provide supplemental documentation so that U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services can finalize their cases. Applicants could be asked to provide updated job letters from their employer-sponsors, and may need to attend another biometrics appointment so that new fingerprints can be taken. Applicants should also be prepared for the possibility of an adjustment interview at a local USCIS office. Though interviews are not routine in employment-based cases, agency adjudicators have the authority to refer specific cases for local office interviews.

Eligible Indian EB-2s who do not have an adjustment application on file with USCIS will need to act quickly if their priority date becomes current because the chance to file an adjustment may be brief. It is not known how many EB-2 India visa numbers will become available when the cut-off date advances, and many available numbers are likely to be captured by cases already on file, including an unspecified number of pending cases that have been upgraded from EB-3 to EB-2.

Thanks for sharing important information.
I think the time period falls in the possible range that most Gurus having been working for a while now.

My personal opinion is that CO tries to give away most cautious cut off date so the actual date might be couple of months later, in the sense it could finally end up at april 2008 (approx.) ( but again this is based on the logic that CO rarely wants to raise hopes for date which will be very difficult to achieve)

Moreover there aren't that many unpredictable factors left for CO at this time, so I am very positive that it will cross feb 2008.

What i hoped for is that he make the move in july when he clearly knows about the usage in all areas by now and not wait till august or sept ; first time filers will have zero hope of getting GC , if they file in september and the dates retrogress in oct.2013

[natvyas]

Porting cases would have a bearing on the final COD.

[indiani]

Porting cases would have a bearing on the final COD.

My guess is CO might have known approximate porting numbers possible and still might have predicted the Feb 2008 date.

July bulletin will give more clarity by knowing not only the cut off date but future predictions.

AILA meeting at the end of the month will be helpful as well as the august bulletin too.

In september usually movements tend to be very little.,

for 2007 and earlier folks hopefully the drama might end in next few months.

[MATT2012]

it is good that CO predicted, dates will move to Feb 2008 for EB2I. it will be better if the dates move ahead of it. Even a smallest movement further than that, a few more are getting out of this long wait. Let us hope and pray for that.

Thanks,
Matt

[SmileBaba]

It seems every now and then CO is meeting with different law firms and predicting random dates. I remember last 2 months also he predicted dates for different law firms. Guess he likes creating drama.

Anyway Feb 2008 will not be a bad end to this fiscal year. Hopefully dates will end in later part of 2008 so that more people get much awaited green card.

[indiani]

it is good that CO predicted, dates will move to Feb 2008 for EB2I. it will be better if the dates move ahead of it. Even a smallest movement further than that, a few more are getting out of this long wait. Let us hope and pray for that.

Thanks,
Matt

Matt,

as i said in previous posts, CO always tries to give predictions on cautious side ( or conservative prediction ), most likely my guess is it might end up being something like april 2013.

I believe the only not so clear picture for CO is the porting numbers which he can only estimate but will not have exact figures compared to stuff like the GC's approved in various categories, the DD etc. which he will have almost precise number by now.

[helooo]

it is good that CO predicted, dates will move to Feb 2008 for EB2I. it will be better if the dates move ahead of it. Even a smallest movement further than that, a few more are getting out of this long wait. Let us hope and pray for that.

Thanks,
Matt
Hi Matt
If the dates are at Feb 2008 in Sep VB then what would they do in Oct. VB?Retro or they may move dates ahead as new Visas will be available?
Thanks!

[gckabaayega]

Hi - My PD is Nov 2007 and I am hoping that I will be current soon. What are the chances that I wont get GC this fiscal year? I am worried that it might happen like 2012 when inspite of being current for a few months - I did not get the GC.

[mannyt]

it is good that CO predicted, dates will move to Feb 2008 for EB2I. it will be better if the dates move ahead of it. Even a smallest movement further than that, a few more are getting out of this long wait. Let us hope and pray for that.

Thanks,
Matt

Sure it would be great if dates move way beyond in 2008 and hopefully 2009. For me, PD is EB2I Feb 15th 2008, I-140 approved, EB3 to EB2 porting case. it is going to be an edge case. I hope the predictions are conservative (good for all)

[sandyn16]

Any predictions from the gurus on what will be July movement especially after hearing CO's statements?

[indiani]

Any predictions from the gurus on what will be July movement especially after hearing CO's statements?

Summer 2007 and here is why:

CO have to get good feel of all possible porting before he can make final movement,

It is safe period where the number of visas needed to fulfill DD is not that much.

Previously before this news came out my range was jan to aug 2007 but now I think aug 2007.

what i really hope is of coourse jan 1 2008 as I will be current :)

[indiani]

Hi Matt
If the dates are at Feb 2008 in Sep VB then what would they do in Oct. VB?Retro or they may move dates ahead as new Visas will be available?
Thanks!

They have to retrogess as until SO is guaranteed (which usually takes atleast 6 months ) , by law they cannot give monthly more than allocated.
Porting might be more than 300 lets say if they keep them at feb 2013 in october ( I am not implying the dates will move until feb only, its just an example)

[Vkkpnm]

How much official information is this? This is another prediction by another lawyer company like David ware sometime ago. Should we believe this?

[sreddy]

Fragomen is a biggie. Almost all large companies like IBM use Fragomen for their immigration needs. They cannot simply say something unless CO actually tells them. But then CO has been telling different things at different times, may be because of unknowns. Considering this one came in towards begining of last quarter, it should be close. In my opinion CO should be looking at final numbers towards end of this month (may be ALIA meeting). Anything he says around that time should be more trust worthy.

How much official information is this? This is another prediction by another lawyer company like David ware sometime ago. Should we believe this?

[Vkkpnm]

Nice to hear that. Thanks

[dec2007]

With Fragmomen news of dates going to 2008, something strike my mind.

Does fingerprinting expire? We gave our fingerprints in dec 2011. and if my dates get current in August, will they call for fingerprint again.

This could cause to miss the boat again...most of 2007/2008 PDs gave finger prints in Nov 2011-march 2008.

[Kanmani]

July Demand Data is out ......http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Visa bulletin today?

[TeddyKoochu]

July Demand Data is out ......http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Visa bulletin today?

Great stage is set for the all important July bulletin. EB2-I dates should come to Jul - Sep 2007 in this VB. Good luck to all waiting.

[Kanmani]

Thanks Teddy. What are your projections for this FY?

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks Teddy. What are your projections for this FY?

Kanmani I will do some calculations based on Trackitt Approvals and update the header but ball park we should be between 01-APR-2008 to 01-JUL-2008.

[Kanmani]

Thank you .

[nishant2200]

Nope. I believe there are provisions to keep renewing your biometrics and BG checks.


With Fragmomen news of dates going to 2008, something strike my mind.

Does fingerprinting expire? We gave our fingerprints in dec 2011. and if my dates get current in August, will they call for fingerprint again.

This could cause to miss the boat again...most of 2007/2008 PDs gave finger prints in Nov 2011-march 2008.

[druvraj]

Thank you .

My Pd is Feb26 2008. I hope for a few days I need not have to wait one more excruciating year. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Druv

[nishant2200]

Hi Matt
If the dates are at Feb 2008 in Sep VB then what would they do in Oct. VB?Retro or they may move dates ahead as new Visas will be available?
Thanks!

Retro in Oct.

Again SO-move in July.

If pipeline needed, jerky movement like FY 2012.

[Kanmani]

With Fragmomen news of dates going to 2008, something strike my mind.

Does fingerprinting expire? We gave our fingerprints in dec 2011. and if my dates get current in August, will they call for fingerprint again.

This could cause to miss the boat again...most of 2007/2008 PDs gave finger prints in Nov 2011-march 2008.

dec2007,

Please check my post here .....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013?p=35869#post35869

[Kanmani]

Just heard from CNN, US intelligence have every information of common people like what jeans/watch/shoe do they buy including cell phone, facebook, twitter conversations.

Could it be possible that the background checks of immigrant visa applicant is as same as the above ? Is part of willywonka's post true?

[dec2007]

dec2007,

Please check my post here .....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013?p=35869#post35869

thanks kanmani....that answers my question. no dual Biometrics is needed

[ChampU]

Probably, this is a wrong time for this post as everyone is busy discussing SO and Demand Data. I could not think of any other forum where I could post this.

I filed the AR-11 change of address online, yesterday. I also updated the address for pending I-485 application (which was described to as Step 2, in the application). The system generated two codes.. one for the AR-11 and another code indicating address on I-485 application has changed..The last three characters for the I-485 code are CA******NSC.

I am able to enter the code for the generic AR-11 and download the form for my records. I am unable to enter the I-485 code to download the I-485 change of address form. Does anyone know of the link where I can get that?
Also, I did not get any LUDs when I changed the address. Did anyone get the text/emails? My friends told me that you get the letters in mail in about a week. Do the letters include confirmation for both the generic change of address and I-485 profile update?

Thanks!

[Kanmani]

ChampU,

I received the change of address confirmation, it was a formal acknowledgement to our address change request and no mention on our pending cases.

It was very disturbing to me then, Later I confirmed with the L2 against the I-485 receipt number. Hope this helps.

[ChampU]

Kanmani,

Thanks for your reply. I am expecting the formal acknowledgement in a couple of weeks. I will call L2 officer and get it confirmed..Peace of mind is priceless :)

[dec2007]

ChampU,

I received the change of address confirmation, it was a formal acknowledgement to our address change request and no mention on our pending cases.

It was very disturbing to me then, Later I confirmed with the L2 against the I-485 receipt number. Hope this helps.

champu

call L2 officer and confirm. I know u need to wait for 30-40mns to get him on the phone, but its worth it.

My ead was sent to wrong address and i never got it back. . i never bothered to apply for ead again....then after 6 mnths they sent me a new ead and AP to new address and my online status said address was changed..

speak to L2.

[ChampU]

champu

call L2 officer and confirm. I know u need to wait for 30-40mns to get him on the phone, but its worth it.

My ead was sent to wrong address and i never got it back. . i never bothered to apply for ead again....then after 6 mnths they sent me a new ead and AP to new address and my online status said address was changed..

speak to L2.

Dec2007,

Will do! Thanks for sharing your experience!!

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey Teddy

Can you please elaborate your prediction of Dates ending this FY between Apr 08-July 08?

Does the CO prediction say - dates moving to maximum of Feb 08 by end of this FY - is there a possibility that dates can move beyond that date?


Kanmani I will do some calculations based on Trackitt Approvals and update the header but ball park we should be between 01-APR-2008 to 01-JUL-2008.

[indiani]

The way DD is increasing in EB2I, my guess is all the porting cases are already reflected in the DD.

Once the date moves lets say until dec 2007 then 8K GC's will be issued to EB2I.

I don't think there will be additional 4-5K porters that will be added.

Am i missing something or is it fair assumption?

[Kanmani]

Nov 2007, You have a new thread......http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2124-Switching-Employers-Problems-with-Employers?p=36005#post36005

[dorais]

EB-ROW Porting

I am not sure if any one here knows how much porting is there from EB3-ROW. But if EB3-ROW cutoff date moves into early 2009, would there be less porting from EB3-ROW folks with PD's in 2007 to 2008?

The dates might retrogress, but at least everyone will get an EAD and I am thinking that it should reduce porting from EB3-ROW.

[drugoi]

I am trying to figure out the "real" timeline to get GC for EB3 middleman with PD mid-2008.
We all know that once demand will be build CO will stop movement and eventually retrogress PD for EB3ROW.
The only data available to us it's PERM, but I have difficulty to make any gestimate from that data.
Any ideas how many eb3row people actually in line?

[ragx08]

I'm eagerly waiting for the July VB to come out with some good news and see some happy faces around once again. Looks like we have to wait till Monday for it! Have a nice weekend - and hope to see lots of happy faces starting next week:-)!!!

Good luck - everyone!!!

[civilengineer]

July Bulletin is out. EB2-I still at at Sep 04.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

[Teja9999]

Really disappointing

[Kanmani]

"India: At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

[natvyas]

This tells me that CO wants to limit the porting cases getting ahead of the regular applications. This leaves him with 2 months to use up the numbers which is do-able given that all cases are pre-adjudicated and probably stacked according to the PD. It also tells me that the Feb-08 is actually a conservative date even though the phrase used "as far as" in the Fragomen update suggests otherwise.

However what beats me is the sentence "A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

[drysnow]

Another slap in the face .... Again
Sorry for venting.

[gten20]

Oh well! Life goes on. :)

[NOV2007]

"indiani/Dec2007" will be very dissapointed with this July bulletin. As am disappointed too. There were lots of hopes on this VB, but EB2I have to keep waiting more time I guess. Now I doubt any SO will be applied to EB2I in this FY. If at all if applied in 2 months time PD will hardly cross 2007JAN I guess. Any way we are well practised to sit calm and wait. One thing we need to learn patience is the key to GC.



"India: At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

[indiasunil]

Dont worry/disappoint Folks !!..

Aug/Sep. Bulletin's will not disappoint surely for EB2I till Feb 2008.

[pdmay2008]

This tells me that CO wants to limit the porting cases getting ahead of the regular applications. This leaves him with 2 months to use up the numbers which is do-able given that all cases are pre-adjudicated and probably stacked according to the PD. It also tells me that the Feb-08 is actually a conservative date even though the phrase used "as far as" in the Fragomen update suggests otherwise.

However what has beats me is the sentence "A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

What's in his mind. Is he talking about EB3-I upgrade applicants who have not filed 485 yet?

Moving the dates in August limits the ability of EB3-I applicants with PD after July 2007 to apply for 485 and get approval before he retrogress the dates again. They will be able to apply for I-485 under EB2 directly.

[sreddy]

What's in his mind. Is he talking about EB3-I upgrade applicants who have not filed 485 yet?

Moving the dates in August limits the ability of EB3-I applicants with PD after July 2007 to apply for 485 and get approval before he retrogress the dates again. They will be able to apply for I-485 under EB2 directly.

I think 2012 un predicted demand made him move cautiously this time, kind of not leave any room for changing status to "U".

[natvyas]

My belief in Fragomen's update is further strengthened by the movement of WW-EB3 category which has moved to Jan-09 just as mentioned in the update. In addition to that it will stay there per the July VB, which was also mentioned in that update.

[indiani]

Prediction for 2 more months:

"At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

No mention of spillovers from any category other than EB2

No mention of how far approximately it can move.

If CO really mentioned something to Fragomen attorneys why not mention that in VB.

This is utter incompetence on their part to run this like they want without any rationale basis.

last year just b'cos of the rapid movements everything got screwed and they want to repeat the same mistake.

This VB not only deeply dissappointed me, it also made me very angry as I can't comprehend the stupid logic they have about not giving even a 3 month chance for first time filers, not capable of organised GC approvals with FIFO.

The accountability is totally absent.

The AILA meeting at the month end is probably only other chance of any further news from CO apart from the actual august and sept bulletins

[desitiger]

Prediction for 2 more months:

"At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

No mention of spillovers from any category.

No mention of how far approximately it can move.

If CO really mentioned something to Fragomen attorneys why not mention that in VB.

This is utter incompetence on their part to run this like they want without any rationale basis.

last year just b'cos of the rapid movements everything got screwed and they want to repeat the same mistake.

Even though this VB not only deeply dissappointed me, also made me very angry as I can't comprehend the stupid logic they have about not giving even a 3 month chance for first time filers, not capable of organised GC approvals of FIFO.

The accountability is totally absent.

The AILA meeting at the month end is probably only other chance of any further news from CO apart from the actual august and sept bulletins

Never trust politicians and govt officials.

[druvraj]

I am flabbergasted. This is absolutely stupid. I guess CO is making sure that EB2I suffers because of what happened last year(Unfortunately EB2I were issued more visas). This is genuinely bad for all of EB2I. Now I am convinced that PD will reach only Aug 1 2007 and starting Oct 1 2013 will go back even further. This year it stopped at Sept 2004 now after this year it will be same as EB3I and will stay there till EB3I makes good progress. CO in my mind is too concerned about porting. EB2I is screwed for a foreseeable future. Those who got GC last year out of turn are indeed lucky.
With the current state of politics no CIR is ever passing till Obama is the president. So till year 2017 be ready to be waiting for your GCs.

[natvyas]

Prediction for 2 more months:

"At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014."

No mention of spillovers from any category other than EB2

No mention of how far approximately it can move.

If CO really mentioned something to Fragomen attorneys why not mention that in VB.

This is utter incompetence on their part to run this like they want without any rationale basis.

last year just b'cos of the rapid movements everything got screwed and they want to repeat the same mistake.

This VB not only deeply dissappointed me, it also made me very angry as I can't comprehend the stupid logic they have about not giving even a 3 month chance for first time filers, not capable of organised GC approvals with FIFO.

The accountability is totally absent.

The AILA meeting at the month end is probably only other chance of any further news from CO apart from the actual august and sept bulletins

Unused numbers can “fall-down” from E1 to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can “fall-up” from E4 and E5 to E1.

It accounts for all fall down from E4, E5 and E1 to E2 and then to E2 India.

[Vkkpnm]

Spec, qesehmk, viz, Matt... Any comments ?

[qesehmk]

Header of the thread updated with VB commentary.

[indiani]

Unused numbers can “fall-down” from E1 to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can “fall-up” from E4 and E5 to E1.

It accounts for all fall down from E4, E5 and E1 to E2 and then to E2 India.

what you have mentioned is the law which is there in every bulletin.

I am trying to interpret the language specifically used in this bulletin and trying to understand the CO thought process.

I am aware of the fact that the unused visas in various categories will come to EB2I (with exception of of course EB3).

[Spectator]

EB2 India: At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September.

CO: I'm still worried how many visas EB1, EB2-WW, EB4 and EB5 might need for the year. I'm going to wait longer before making a move.
Spec: It seems pretty clear that despite the low Trackitt approvals, EB2-I is using at least 285 visas a month. It is even possible EB2-I has already reached the 3,163 limit, or is close to it.

It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category.

CO: I'm expecting a lot of porting applications to be approved or adjudicated when I move the dates.

A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014.

CO: I'm going to have to retrogress the EB2-I dates several years again when the new FY begins. I thought I would warn you in an obtuse way.


EB3 Worldwide: No additional movement. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. Therefore, the cut-off date will be held until it can be determined what level of demand is to be expected, and whether it is likely to be sustained.

CO: I know new demand will be generated from the movement I have made already. Be thankful for it. I also know those lazy ***** at USCIS will take ages to process applications, so I won't see the demand from them for several months. I could move the dates for one more month, but I'm not going to. I'm not going to make the same mistake as last year and have any risk whatsoever of overusing visas. It's safer just to shaft you again.

[indiani]

spec,

Do you think that CO might be seeing plenty of demand in EB1/4/5/WW even now, if he is not so sure b'cos of still heavy demand why would he give feb 2008 dates to Fragomen (if we were to believe thats true- I personally think law firm like fragomen will not post something which they are not sure of )

[indiani]

My attorney said yesterday that she definitely will ask CO ( she believes someone sure would bring the cut off date question ) at AILA at the end of this month.

If he sticks with the same prediction of feb 2008, then I guess he might actually be thinking about moving dates at that time ( aug/sep) , may be he just doesn't like porters consuming any additinal GC's for this fiscal year so he is planning to release it so late that they don't get their GC's this fiscal year. ( I personally do not have anything against porters )

[sbhagwat2000]

EB2 India: At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September.

CO: I'm still worried how many visas EB1, EB2-WW, EB4 and EB5 might need for the year. I'm going to wait longer before making a move.
Spec: It seems pretty clear that despite the low Trackitt approvals, EB2-I is using at least 285 visas a month. It is even possible EB2-I has already reached the 3,163 limit, or is close to it.

It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category.

CO: I'm expecting a lot of porting applications to be approved or adjudicated when I move the dates.

A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014.

CO: I'm going to have to retrogress the EB2-I dates several years again when the new FY begins. I thought I would warn you in an obtuse way.


EB3 Worldwide: No additional movement. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. Therefore, the cut-off date will be held until it can be determined what level of demand is to be expected, and whether it is likely to be sustained.

CO: I know new demand will be generated from the movement I have made already. Be thankful for it. I also know those lazy ***** at USCIS will take ages to process applications, so I won't see the demand from them for several months. I could move the dates for one more month, but I'm not going to. I'm not going to make the same mistake as last year and have any risk whatsoever of overusing visas. It's safer just to shaft you again.

I think on your first point CO I think knows how many visas are available for the year(Otherwise he would not have mentioned 2008 in the conference with Fragoman). He just does not want to give them as he does not want to process any applications than the ones adjudicated and in the queue. If he had moved dates in July then more interfiling applications would have been processed. Since demand is not static he will wait till the end. I think august is going be a wash. September finally there will be movement.

[vizcard]

This is a move to limit porters consuming visas which personally I'm all for. The fundamentals are still the same. The COD date range for me is still Apr to Jun 2008. Of course it could now well be June - Sep 2008 as porting impact will be reduced slightly.

[indiani]

another anxious 30-33 days to go.

when I decided to come to this country in 2000, I had no clue about this whole mess that we are seeing now.

I don't think anyone would have predicted at that time ( 13 yrs ago ) and partly the boom in the IT sector and partly inefficiency of uscis ( then INS ) and labor dept. all added to this rather pathetic condition.

anyone have suggestion about how they plan to kill these anxious coming days

[sandyn16]

Why would the CO care between someone who ported from EB3 to EB2 or original EB2 filers? I mean he could have always moved it by say 3-6 months to see the response right, but he stayed put at Sept 2004. Is there a possibility that he did not have enough information in time to move the dates?

[indiani]

Why would the CO care between someone who ported from EB3 to EB2 or original EB2 filers? I mean he could have always moved it by say 3-6 months to see the response right, but he stayed put at Sept 2004. Is there a possibility that he did not have enough information in time to move the dates?

If we assume Fragomen info if genuine, then he already knows there are enough visas to cover till feb 2008.

So apart from stopping new applicants from getting Gc's thhis fiscal year ,I can't see any other logic to wait till aug/sept.

[pdmay2008]

Why would the CO care between someone who ported from EB3 to EB2 or original EB2 filers? I mean he could have always moved it by say 3-6 months to see the response right, but he stayed put at Sept 2004. Is there a possibility that he did not have enough information in time to move the dates?

He certainly does not have any data on EB3-I who have priority date after July 2007(they have not filed I-485 yet). He is worried about how much that demand would be. EB3-I applicants before July 2007 have their EADs and some of them are not worried to port and get into faster lane. CO is aware that when he moves dates anything above July 2007 will generate new I-485s demand from EB3-I porters. He is very cautious to move dates to guage the demand. I believe in August bulletin he moves dates to Feb 2008 as he mentioned to Fragomen. All the new I-485s will not become documentarily qualified(so called demand) before August 10th(That's when he releases September Bulletin). And he does not need to take these new I-485s into equation to decide September cutoff date.

To decide September cutoff date he will have approximately correct number of unused numbers and demand data. It will be easier for him to decide the further movement at that time.

Need inputs from Gurus: I heard last year or year before that Visa number gets allocated to documentarily qualified applicants in September and GC can be issued in October even if it is new fiscal year and/or dates get retrogressed. Is this true?

[nishant2200]

This is a move to limit porters consuming visas which personally I'm all for. The fundamentals are still the same. The COD date range for me is still Apr to Jun 2008. Of course it could now well be June - Sep 2008 as porting impact will be reduced slightly.

I personally don't think CO would care to limit porting. He has enough ready to go demand and is just being cautious. Just an opinion.

[seattlet]

I think with the fast improving I 485 processing times, most porters will also get greened when the flood gates open up. From past data what we can understand is that FBI background check doesnt take that long anymore unless they decide to further screen the individual.

btw folks have to understand that most porters have been in this country for around 10 years or longer, have been thru the worst , compared to folks who graduated in 2008 or later and had an eb2 to start with. So it is actually very fair to allow porting when those individuals qualify for EB2. Everyone wants to beat the queue and get it done with (especially when the get a masters degree), but Im happy with the way it is. 80 to 90 % of EB2 India folks are in software jobs which doesnt require masters degree or a lot of academic skills and hence if very strict qualification rules are set in place those PERMs should have never been approved. (currently everyone is gaming the system and hence no point in crying foul)

[irdabb6]

Its strange to see EB3 china advance to 01/2009 and EB2 China stuck at 08/2008.

[isantem]

Its strange to see EB3 china advance to 01/2009 and EB2 China stuck at 08/2008.

Is just an application build up as EB2 China had last year when they were May 2010. EB2 China how is 8/2008 it well get his GC next month because they are pre adjucated, EB3 China
8/2008 probably it will take them at least another year until they get the GC.

[sbhagwat2000]

Some time back on this thread if people remember I had posted the conversation I had with attorney David Ware. It seems what he said then was correct. He had told me movement would be late in the year. The Only part where he seems to have been wrong was he had said movement would be only a few weeks. Looks like in April that was the projection from DOS and now last week it seems with better understanding of visa usage they seem confident of moving to 2008. Hopefully dates move in august though I would bet on sept as that is a safer move for CO to make.

BTW - Spec - you had promised us a prediction after the bulletin. Do you have one for us? Atleast I am waiting to hear your thoughts and analysis

[willywonka]

Somehow CO always manages to press the right buttons to annoy the beep out of me even when he has good news. His choice of words!!! I feel so restless and frustrated that there was no movement for eb2i in July bulletin.

I have a late 2008 eb2i pd and I used to have some false confidence that I will get my GC by the end of FY2014. But reality hit me yesterday and I dont think so anymore, I think it will be more like a scary movie titled "FY2014: The Wrath of EB3I Porters." And it kept me up last night. Porting numbers from pre-july 2007 eb3i may be something but its a completely different ball game when porters from post-July 2007 enter the field.

Spec - Loved your post; I haven't heard anyone use "obtuse" in a sentence since Shawshank Redemption.

Spec/Q - for a novice like me, estimating the number of porters or overall new applicants in August/September once the dates advance is just a wild shoot. But you guys can probably guesstimate those numbers from some known data/trend and sheer intuition. So, please indulge me...if the dates for Eb2i are to forward to march 1 2008 this August no more no less, stay there till the end of September and retrogress back to say Jan1 2005 in October....what do you think will be the cumulative number of pending eb2 i485s until the end of feb2008 that we will see in the pending inventory released in jan 2014? I would really appreciate anything you can give me on this.

[indiani]

Somehow CO always manages to press the right buttons to annoy the beep out of me even when he has good news. His choice of words!!! I feel so restless and frustrated that there was no movement for eb2i in July bulletin.

I have a late 2008 eb2i pd and I used to have some false confidence that I will get my GC by the end of FY2014. But reality hit me yesterday and I dont think so anymore, I think it will be more like a scary movie titled "FY2014: The Wrath of EB3I Porters." And it kept me up last night. Porting numbers from pre-july 2007 eb3i may be something but its a completely different ball game when porters from post-July 2007 enter the field.

Spec - Loved your post; I haven't heard anyone use "obtuse" in a sentence since Shawshank Redemption.

Spec/Q - for a novice like me, estimating the number of porters or overall new applicants in August/September once the dates advance is just a wild shoot. But you guys can probably guesstimate those numbers from some known data/trend and sheer intuition. So, please indulge me...if the dates for Eb2i are to forward to march 1 2008 this August no more no less, stay there till the end of September and retrogress back to say Jan1 2005 in October....what do you think will be the cumulative number of pending eb2 i485s until the end of feb2008 that we will see in the pending inventory released in jan 2014? I would really appreciate anything you can give me on this.

I am neither spec/Q but have been in this journey for a while and followed the movements etc.,
I have a piece of advice for whatever its worth.

I have ruined my life more or less depending on possible movements and making almost every plan in life based on that and it is in fact intricately involved with movements and GC.

my sister rarely worries as she isn't even considering ever getting GC thorugh EB3I as she planned assuming she would never get GC ( even though at some point when her kids become 21 she will ).

Only after september and also especially after 1st Q of 2014 will anyone have even a clue of where things are especially with CIR in horizon for next fiscal yr onwards.

Historically EB2I has received every year several thousands and EB2WW demand will go down next yr but may be most of the new porters will just apply and fill DD so these two will balance out., now you canmake your own estimations and of course you might hear from the greatest expert of our time spec.

I just hope no one would end up in the rather pathetic situation like mine., stay on the forum and lets help each other out but only piece of advice is the unpredictability factor is very very high.

[TeddyKoochu]

There is an interesting pattern on EB2 ROW approvals this year which may explain why there was no advancement in EB2 I/C dates. This is from Trackitt EB2 ROW approvals primary only.
Oct 2012 to May 2013 - 754
Oct 2011 to May 2012 - 588
This represents 28% extra consumption.
Now we do know that last year due to high volume approvals for EB2 I/C in feb / mar 2012 these were far more than the numbers could support so ROW cases approval did move to the next year.
So we should filter out Oct and Nov 2012 and then compare over the corresponding periods.
Dec 2012 to May 2013 - 527
Dec 2011 to May 2013 - 489
If we compare these time durations then the numbers are comparable.
EB2 Mexico and Philippines normally do not consume much in EB2, EB2 I/C would take their share. Easily we can see that ROW would take 8- 10K extra visa this year when compared to last year.
With this most likely Eb2 Row would not give any SOFAD, however the numbers do indicate that it would not take any SOFAD away either that would come from EB5 / EB1 including 12K out of 18K extra FB spillover. So even if EB1 does not give anything there is still 12K to apply. But seems like extreme caution is being exercised to use that. Overall EB2 would be SOFAD neutral this year. Kudos to Spec for saying this very early in the year.

[sandyn16]

Do we think the CO will be cautious in August also and move dates by just few months and then go straight into 2008 in September?

[geeaarpee]

This is a move to limit porters consuming visas which personally I'm all for. The fundamentals are still the same. The COD date range for me is still Apr to Jun 2008. Of course it could now well be June - Sep 2008 as porting impact will be reduced slightly.

Viz,

IMHO - any benefits to limit porters filing new I-485 and getting approved in FY'13 is nullified with the more and more porters (who have an existing I-485) getting pre-adjudicated or their EB2 I-140s getting approved during this extra one or two month period from now until Aug/Sep.

I would even say new porters (before 2007 without an I-485) filing new I-485 will be less than the new porters (before 2007 with an I-485) who are documentarly getting qualified day by day.

As Spec clearly explained in one of his posts, CO is not sure about how many more visas he may need in the other categories in the next few months (so again there is no strategy from CO, just the lack of data).

Also it looks like he doesn't want to put an "U" against any other category other than EB2I which he cannot becos it should be "U" by now if there are no "otherwise unused visas".

Even with additional 18k FB SO visas, EB2I had such a rough year, think about FY'14 if there are no FB SO and more and more porters from summer'07 and beyond. REALLY SCARY!

[natvyas]

Viz,

IMHO - any benefits to limit porters filing new I-485 and getting approved in FY'13 is nullified with the more and more porters (who have an existing I-485) getting pre-adjudicated or their EB2 I-140s getting approved during this extra one or two month period from now until Aug/Sep.

I would even say new porters (before 2007 without an I-485) filing new I-485 will be less than the new porters (before 2007 with an I-485) who are documentarly getting qualified day by day.

As Spec clearly explained in one of his posts, CO is not sure about how many more visas he may need in the other categories in the next few months (so again there is no strategy from CO, just the lack of data).

Also it looks like he doesn't want to put an "U" against any other category other than EB2I which he cannot becos it should be "U" by now if there are no "otherwise unused visas".

Even with additional 18k FB SO visas, EB2I had such a rough year, think about FY'14 if there are no FB SO and more and more porters from summer'07 and beyond. REALLY SCARY!

It terms of supply, I think FY14 should be similar to FY13 because EB2 WW is going to provide SO which they have done historically (barring this year which was an anomaly)

However the demand might change depending on how far the dates moves.

[geeaarpee]

It terms of supply, I think FY14 should be similar to FY13 because EB2 WW is going to provide SO which they have done historically (barring this year which was an anomaly)

However the demand might change depending on how far the dates moves.

Again IMHO - EB2 ROW porting and Cross-Chargeability are growing too.

As immigration attorneys say 20-30% of their GC cases are porting cases of some sort, which is a huge #, gonna reduce SO.

Port to EB1 or try NIW if you can.

Otherwise since you have an EAD (most EB2I), play the EB1-C game by finding a good employer, go to India (or any other country), work there for a year as some kinda manager at their offshore shop, come back and apply as a Multi-National manager.

[cbordu_111]

Hi guys, I needed your opinion on something. I apologize if I am posting in the wrong thread but if someone could give suggestions on my case it will be very helpful.

I am currently EB3-I with a priority date of Feb 2012 my I-140 is approved and like everyone from India chargeability am waiting for that fateful day when my priority date will be current. In the July visa bulletin CO has indicated that the F2A category could become current at some point during the coming months and this is where I might be lucky. So I got married in the US in March of 2009 to someone who is 6 years older than me and the marriage is registered in the state of Iowa. My wife is a legal permanent resident since Dec of 2008. Our marriage was very low key with just my wife’s mother attending the wedding and no one else. We do not have a joint account and since 2009 have been filing our taxes as married filing separately. Our lease agreement has both our names on it and she is on my health insurance plan. My question to the gurus are the following:

1. If I file a new petition in the next few weeks under F2A category (basically file my I-130 and if I am lucky I-485) will my EB3-I petition get affected by any chance?
2. If the F2A dates become current say in the August visa bulletin can I file for I-485 under F2A assuming that I send out my I-130 petition by end of June and is there any chance that it might somehow effect my I-485 on EB3-I in the future?
3. Given my circumstance considering we don’t have a joint account and we file our taxes as married filing separately will that be an issue when I submit my I-130?
4. I was wondering if anybody has any opinion about me self filing I-130 and I-485 instead of hiring a lawyer and can anyone provide a guidance to the document list that I should be sending with my petition?

I would like to thank anyone who can provide some insight with this regards, it will be very helpful.

[vizcard]

Viz,

IMHO - any benefits to limit porters filing new I-485 and getting approved in FY'13 is nullified with the more and more porters (who have an existing I-485) getting pre-adjudicated or their EB2 I-140s getting approved during this extra one or two month period from now until Aug/Sep.

I would even say new porters (before 2007 without an I-485) filing new I-485 will be less than the new porters (before 2007 with an I-485) who are documentarly getting qualified day by day.

As Spec clearly explained in one of his posts, CO is not sure about how many more visas he may need in the other categories in the next few months (so again there is no strategy from CO, just the lack of data).

Also it looks like he doesn't want to put an "U" against any other category other than EB2I which he cannot becos it should be "U" by now if there are no "otherwise unused visas".

Even with additional 18k FB SO visas, EB2I had such a rough year, think about FY'14 if there are no FB SO and more and more porters from summer'07 and beyond. REALLY SCARY!

Porting can come from post July 2007 too when the dates move. Giving new filers 2 months vs 3 months limits the impact new filers given processing times. It will impact FY14 but this is the new normal. The only ways things for EB2I significantly improve is CIR or porting to EB1.

[geeaarpee]

Porting can come from post July 2007 too when the dates move. Giving new filers 2 months vs 3 months limits the impact new filers given processing times. It will impact FY14 but this is the new normal. The only ways things for EB2I significantly improve is CIR or porting to EB1.

"F2A: Could become “Current” at some point during the coming months."

Zero to Very little chance of any FB SO next year. EB2I using SO and getting GCs this year can get married before Sep'13 and their spouses can apply for GCs immediately on F2A.

Employment Third:


Worldwide:
No additional movement. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. Therefore, the cut-off date will be held until it can be determined what level of demand is to be expected, and whether it is likely to be sustained.



More EADs to EB3 causing easier employment changes next year and more and more EB2 ROW porting.

[natvyas]

Porting:

If the update from Fragomen is correct and the dates move to Feb'08 that would mean 10K would be consumed, and per the calculations from Guru's here we were expecting about 15K visa, which means that Porting is 5K.

Year after year we have been paranoid about porting and it always turned out to be in 4-6K range.

[pdmay2008]

Porting:

If the update from Fragomen is correct and the dates move to Feb'08 that would mean 10K would be consumed, and per the calculations from Guru's here we were expecting about 15K visa, which means that Porting is 5K.

Year after year we have been paranoid about porting and it always turned out to be in 4-6K range.

I believe current demand data already has porting demand included. As far as I know the only demand that CO does not have demand data for EB3I porting applicants with Priority date After July 2007, who have not filed 485 yet. Having said that this remaining 5K will move dates further(to Mid 2008). If CO thinks he is going to waste VISAs due to processing delays(like RFEs, finger printing etc..), he will move dates further than Mid 2008. This is my opinion feel free to comment.

[pdmay2008]

Porting:

If the update from Fragomen is correct and the dates move to Feb'08 that would mean 10K would be consumed, and per the calculations from Guru's here we were expecting about 15K visa, which means that Porting is 5K.

Year after year we have been paranoid about porting and it always turned out to be in 4-6K range.

I believe current demand data already has porting demand included. As far as I know the only demand that CO does not have demand data for EB3I porting applicants with Priority date After July 2007, who have not filed 485 yet. Having said that this remaining 5K will move dates further(to Mid 2008). If CO thinks he is going to waste VISAs due to processing delays(like RFEs, finger printing etc..), he will move dates further than Mid 2008. This is my opinion feel free to comment.

[erikbond101]

Here are my interpretations of VB bulletin:

1- No new EB3 porters post July 2007 will be able to get GC number. EB2I demand data numbers till July 2007 (~4000) and the porters who already have I-1485 from EB3-I can get GC in 2 months period. So August 13 bulletin cutoff date should be July 2007. (around 8-9K total)

2- After above cutoff date, CO do not need to consider EB3I porters in September visa bulletin, as new porters post July 2007 and without I-485 cannot get GC number in just one month. So last cutoff date will depend on total spillovers and CO can definitely use only demand data to set final cutoff date.

With 18K spillover CO may set cutoff date sometime in May 2008.

my 2 cents

[Kanmani]

I believe current demand data already has porting demand included. As far as I know the only demand that CO does not have demand data for EB3I porting applicants with Priority date After July 2007, who have not filed 485 yet. Having said that this remaining 5K will move dates further(to Mid 2008). If CO thinks he is going to waste VISAs due to processing delays(like RFEs, finger printing etc..), he will move dates further than Mid 2008. This is my opinion feel free to comment.

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ :).

[pdmay2008]

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ :).

So current demand data does not include EB3 Porters? Are we sure about this fact, if that is true with 15000 SO it can move the date to Feb 08. If the SOFAD is more than 15000 it moves further than Feb-08.

I wish CO would have given few more clues in this VB to understand his thought process.

[NOV2007]

Based on Last week DD even if CO applies 8000 from SO, the dates will move into 2008JAN in JULY2013 VB. He cann't apply less than 9000 from SO for July2013VB. And in AUG2013VB he will definitely apply all the remaining SO and this will ensure PD will move to atleast APR2008. And I believe QESEH theory where in CO cann't retrogress in SEPT2013VB since annual monthly quota of 232 visas will be available. May be in the worst scenario he might retrogress in OCT2013VB. Otherwise as Qeseh said in his earlier post it will be in DEC2013 we can see dates getting retrogressed.


With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ :).

[Kanmani]

But the porters are offcially considered as EB2 from 1st August 2013 and right away eligible for visa number allocation!

Porters do have a share in the spillover allocation.

As such it looks complicated , but my guess is there should be some understanding between the agencies in this matter.

[indiani]

But the porters are offcially considered as EB2 from 1st August 2013 and right away eligible for visa number allocation!

Porters do have a share in the spillover allocation.

As such it looks complicated , but my guess is there should be some understanding between the agencies in this matter.

Porters who already previous applied for 485 and finished fingerprinting etc. will get GC in few days to couple of weeks.

Porters who never have applied for 485 before will not get GC this fiscal year.

For example anyone who had PD of oct 2007 EB3 would never had a chance to apply for 485 .

[bieber]

Based on the visa bulletin language, it doesn't look like the expected porting demand is realized in the demand data and date movement will reflect that only after few months

[indiani]

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ :).

I agree completely the DD doesn't reflect additional 4-5K porters who will get GC immediately once dates are moved but there will be some porters who never applied for 485 before in any category will not get GC right away.

I think dates might not move too far from feb 2013, even now ( after fragomen news ) I am not 100% sure that Nov 2007 will be covered this fiscal year. But I have pinned all my hopes on it as it will be devastating blow if they don't even move that far.

[indiani]

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ :).

I agree completely the DD doesn't reflect additional 4-5K porters who will get GC immediately once dates are moved but there will be some porters who never applied for 485 before in any category will not get GC right away.

I think dates might not move too far from feb 2013, even now ( after fragomen news ) I am not 100% sure that Nov 2007 will be covered this fiscal year. But I have pinned all my hopes on it as it will be devastating blow if they don't even move that far.

[cbordu_111]

Hi Guys,

Sorry for reposting my question. I really do value your opinion here could someone who has had experience with this provide an insight to me. Please move this to an appropriate thread as I didn't find a thread pertaining to the following questions. Reposting it again I apologize for any inconvinience.

Hi guys, I needed your opinion on something. I apologize if I am posting in the wrong thread but if someone could give suggestions on my case it will be very helpful.

I am currently EB3-I with a priority date of Feb 2012 my I-140 is approved and like everyone from India chargeability am waiting for that fateful day when my priority date will be current. In the July visa bulletin CO has indicated that the F2A category could become current at some point during the coming months and this is where I might be lucky. So I got married in the US in March of 2009 to someone who is 6 years older than me and the marriage is registered in the state of Iowa. My wife is a legal permanent resident since Dec of 2008. Our marriage was very low key with just my wife’s mother attending the wedding and no one else. We do not have a joint account and since 2009 have been filing our taxes as married filing separately. Our lease agreement has both our names on it and she is on my health insurance plan. My question to the gurus are the following:

1. If I file a new petition in the next few weeks under F2A category (basically file my I-130 and if I am lucky I-485) will my EB3-I petition get affected by any chance?
2. If the F2A dates become current say in the August visa bulletin can I file for I-485 under F2A assuming that I send out my I-130 petition by end of June and is there any chance that it might somehow effect my I-485 on EB3-I in the future?
3. Given my circumstance considering we don’t have a joint account and we file our taxes as married filing separately will that be an issue when I submit my I-130?
4. I was wondering if anybody has any opinion about me self filing I-130 and I-485 instead of hiring a lawyer and can anyone provide a guidance to the document list that I should be sending with my petition?

I would like to thank anyone who can provide some insight with this regards, it will be very helpful.

[Sirisha]

India: At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014.

So, Does this mean that the dates will move to 2008/2009?

[pdmay2008]

One of the trackitt user reporting that he got RFE for wife vaccinations and his Priority date is July 2008. Does this indicate any thing for the date movement. He applied his I-485 back in Feb-2012.

[NOV2007]

I guess even if CO applies 9000 from SO,dates will move into DEC2007. And we are expecting SO atleast 13000. He cann't lessen SO in AUG2013VB to less than 9000 because CO will be left with one more month to apply all the remaining SO. I strongly feel all the SO will be applied in AUG2013VB and date will be moved to Mar2008. If not Date will be moved to JAN2008 in AUG2013VB and remaining SO will be applied in SEP2013VB and date will be set to APR2008(Higher end Jun2008). Another factor need to consider is, amount of work for USCIS when SO is applied.
If all SO is applied in AUG2013VB they will have 2 months time to work on applications, otherwise by splitting SO in the last 2 months of this FY, they cann't properly estimate amount of work load on each month. So am pretty confident date will move to atleast 2008JAN in the next bulletin.:D


I agree completely the DD doesn't reflect additional 4-5K porters who will get GC immediately once dates are moved but there will be some porters who never applied for 485 before in any category will not get GC right away.

I think dates might not move too far from feb 2013, even now ( after fragomen news ) I am not 100% sure that Nov 2007 will be covered this fiscal year. But I have pinned all my hopes on it as it will be devastating blow if they don't even move that far.

[YTeleven]

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ :).
I think the current DD has porters data. For example if you consider the DEC'12 DD and Current DD there is a increase of 500 applications for EB2I between the year 1/1/2005 to 1/1/2006. These 500 newly added applications are from the porters for last six months.
Like wise during other years we see there is a decrease in EB3I and an increase in EB2I.
Here is the yearly breakup of application reductions in EB3I so far in this fiscal year:
2002 | -2475
2003 | -1300
2004 | -1175
2005 | -550
2006 | -625
2007 | -250
---------------
Total:| -6375
---------------

Here is the yearly breakup of EB2I applications as of today:
2004 | 475
2005 | 800
2006 | 1200
2007 | 5575
2008 | 16150
2009 | 13850
2010 | 5050
----------------
Total:| 43100
----------------
if you compare the second table data against a Oct'12 inventory or Dec'12 DD you will recognize how are the Applications added to various years.

Also, the current USCIS systems are intelligent enough to detect if an applicant filed multiple I-140s to find the oldest PD from oldest I-140 for that applicant.
One of my friend filed a new I-140 with new employer and gave the Old PD and system has identified that person has got more than 2 I-140s and he even don't know some of them as the previous employers didn't gave him the info of those petitions and he was lucky to get an oldest PD from those unknown I-140s filed by previous employers to him.

[vizcard]

So, Does this mean that the dates will move to 2008/2009?

dates will definitely move in to early 2008 and definitely not move beyond Sept 2008. I'm not predicting a COD of Sept... I personally believe a max cut off of June 2008 but no movement in July VB gives some wiggle room now.

[Kanmani]

"If the case is not within the established cut-off date the request goes into our “pending” demand file, which also contains the demand which has been received from our overseas posts. That demand is then used as the basis for the establishment of future cut-off dates.

When a USCIS authorization is made from the “pending” demand file an e-mail message is sent to a single address which each CIS Office has provided to the Immigrant Control and Reporting Division. The first page(s) of the message provides a summary listing of the A-numbers which have been authorized, and the following pages contain an individual authorization page for each A-number. That listing would be the same type as received if the case had been authorized when the USCIS Officer had originally submitted the request. Such authorizations are assumed to have been processed to conclusion during the month of authorization. If not, USCIS must notify VO that the case was not processed, the case record would then be deleted, and the case would be resubmitted to VO once the reasons for the deletion have been resolved.

The authorizations from the “pending” demand file are sent to a central address to ensure that they are seen by someone should the officer who originally requested the case not be there (e.g., reassigned, on leave, etc.). If authorization is immediately available at the time of request the response would be send to the requesting officer, not the central address."


Guys,

The backlog reduction using unused numbers is as systematic as described above. Each Alien number is allotted with a visa number as per the pending list and no lottery system !

All the best!

[indiani]

I think the current DD has porters data. For example if you consider the DEC'12 DD and Current DD there is a increase of 500 applications for EB2I between the year 1/1/2005 to 1/1/2006. These 500 newly added applications are from the porters for last six months.
Like wise during other years we see there is a decrease in EB3I and an increase in EB2I.
Here is the yearly breakup of application reductions in EB3I so far in this fiscal year:
2002 | -2475
2003 | -1300
2004 | -1175
2005 | -550
2006 | -625
2007 | -250
---------------
Total:| -6375
---------------

Here is the yearly breakup of EB2I applications as of today:
2004 | 475
2005 | 800
2006 | 1200
2007 | 5575
2008 | 16150
2009 | 13850
2010 | 5050
----------------
Total:| 43100
----------------
if you compare the second table data against a Oct'12 inventory or Dec'12 DD you will recognize how are the Applications added to various years.

Also, the current USCIS systems are intelligent enough to detect if an applicant filed multiple I-140s to find the oldest PD from oldest I-140 for that applicant.
One of my friend filed a new I-140 with new employer and gave the Old PD and system has identified that person has got more than 2 I-140s and he even don't know some of them as the previous employers didn't gave him the info of those petitions and he was lucky to get an oldest PD from those unknown I-140s filed by previous employers to him.

I think what you are describing is true for someone who has existing I-485 in EB-3 category .

there are some porters who just have old I-140 in EB3 with PD ( but not I-485, people who missed the 2007 fiasco) before summer 2007 and almost everyone after summer 2007 ( I mean porters) do not have existing i-485. these kind of applicants won't consume GC this fiscal year.

i think CO might have just 10K or so spillover but not 14-15 like some of us were hopeful of.
Thats why he is planning to move upto Feb 2008.
( he might do in 2 steps now or just one step in august and keep it the same for sept )

[natvyas]

Spec - Any updates to your prediction?

[Kanmani]

cbordu_111,

It seems many of us are unfamiliar with FB details, I have very little information.

Your EB3 I-140 is valid as long as the job is available to you. You can have multiple immigrant visa petitions approved under different category, but only one visa number is allotted per Alien Number.

I read in one attorney's website that, USCIS avoids multiple I-485 filings and asks to withdraw them except one. If it is true then, whenever F2A is current, you may need to file only I-130 , upon approval send a request to consider your pending I-485 case under family based.

Overall, your case needs a knowledgeable attorney.

[indiani]

I have compared DD and also inventories; Porters have been added consistently over the last 9 months.

New porters ( folks who never filed 485 before ) will not consume any GC's ( unless some lucky ones get within 60 days ) so no one has to worry about the unknown number of porters suddenly appearing.( folks who are anticipating their GC in next fiscal year need to worry about them)

The SO will be applied completely to india . China won't get the 7% ( I believe someone said they might, my recollection might be poor about this ). CO's ( courtesy Fragomen) prediction that China dates move only few weeks is the reason.

The total SO available appears to be roughly 10K ( as 10K is needed to clear till Feb 2008.)

Anyone who want to contradict , please explain why ?

[desitiger]

I know Fragomen's statement gave us the Feb 2008 movement detail but any chance the dates move a little bit more to end of March 2008

[Vkkpnm]

Hi,

My PD is Dec 2007. I could not file my i485 so far. Are there chances that I receive my GC this year or I have to settle with EAD ONLY. In that scenario, when can I expect my GC?

Thanks

[sreddy]

Hi,

My PD is Dec 2007. I could not file my i485 so far. Are there chances that I receive my GC this year or I have to settle with EAD ONLY. In that scenario, when can I expect my GC?

Thanks

You will get EAD for sure, but hard to make predictions on your GC becuase processing 485 takes overt 60 days that I have seen. And no one knows where the dates are going to be after porters start hitting inventory. With CO making so cautious moves, I doubt you have a chance this year (sorry if I put cold water on your hopes).

[GCKnowHow]

July VB http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5993.html

India
EB3 moved from 08 Jan 03 to 22 JAN 03

China
EB2 moved from 15 Jul 08 to 08 AUG 08 ---> (08/08/08) :)
EB3 moved from 01 Sep 08 to 01 Jan 09
Others moved from 22 OCT 03 to 22 Mar 04

Mexico
EB3 moved from 01 Sep 08 to 01 Jan 09
Others moved from 01 Sep 08 to 01 Jan 09

All Chargeability Areas Except listed
EB3 moved from 01 Sep 08 to 01 Jan 09
Others moved from 01 Sep 08 to 01 Jan 09

[Vkkpnm]

You will get EAD for sure, but hard to make predictions on your GC becuase processing 485 takes overt 60 days that I have seen. And no one knows where the dates are going to be after porters start hitting inventory. With CO making so cautious moves, I doubt you have a chance this year (sorry if I put cold water on your hopes).

Thanks for the reply. So PD date will retrogress back in October/November visa bulletin?

[sreddy]

Thanks for the reply. So PD date will retrogress back in October/November visa bulletin?

As soon as Portering demamand hits inventory, I think that is going to be in November VB.

[GCKnowHow]

July VB http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5993.html

Does this mean there is going to be a big movement next month? CO is keeping everyone in big suspense.

[Kanmani]

Here is why I think porters are not included in the Demand Data yet.

"DOS Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System (IVAMS) permits only one visa request per alien registration number (A-number) – i.e., only one visa request can be pending in the system for a particular alien.

Applicants who want to change their green card application from employment-based to family-based must initiate a request with USCIS. When USCIS receives a request to change an employment-based green card application (for which a visa is not available) to a family-based green card application (for which a visa is available), the Service Center contacts DOS to ask that the pending employment-based visa request be deleted from IVAMS."

Source : uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Ombudsman%20Liaison/Responses%20to%20Annual%20Reports/cisomb-2010-annual-report-response.pdf

From the above, considering one pending visa request per A.No , whenever uscis asks visa number for a porting case, they must delete the already pending request from the system . Eb3 cannot have two AOS(I-485) pending at the same time (1 in E2 & 1 in E3 is not allowed anymore, converting the existing to other basis is encouraged) , whenever there is an addtion to EB2 in the demand data, there must be a deletion in the eb3 total, which is not happening in any of the DD consistantly.

According to Murthy law firm,

"The interfiling request should be based on a priority date that is current, although many such requests are initiated prior to that point. Regardless, no action is taken by the USCIS unless the priority date under the new basis case is current. "

[dontcrib]

This is my first post. Sorry for any errors.. Just have a Question regarding the Porting numbers. some of the members were mentioning that the porting numbers are included in the DD. Can some one clarify How does the Demand Data shows porting numbers after 04-Sep-2004 when the date is not current for EB2I though they might have filed the 485 under Eb3I..

[bvsamrat]

Kanmani- I agree that it appears quite logical. But CO has indicated many times that due to porting the dates could not advance.
What you said might happen only if no visas are issued in first 3 quarters of FY 2013 and hence status quo and dates stood still
(vey low chances - possible only if CO has paid back to EB2-WW what he had taken last year).

But if we assume about 300 Visa issued every month and net demand increase of 300 PM will make porters of about 600 PM- to me this appears logical (there is no net demand increase in 2008/2009 cases which would not include porters)

I concur with Indani and I will throw in my prediction

If we consider SO only assuming that the regular allocation is taken by porters (IMHo - porters are 600 Per month and without SO, dates would go back to match EB3PD).
If all SO released in AuG VB- SO of 8300 will take to 1st JAN08
If all SO released in SEP VB- SO of 8625 will take to 1st JAN08
To Reach 1 JAN 09, would require SO of 24450-24,575 which is very big ASK.
Whatever happens, next year will very very tough as new porters will start applying I-485, but as to get realized into demand may make about 3-4 months time (say Dec-Jan 2013 )
(Regular 07 and early 08 guys- Thank CO for his delay tactics without which this would not happen)
By then dates would go back to 04 or 05 or few months head of EB3 PD. But we and CO would know the trend.
Question - Gurus- What if a porter has a EB2 PD with lower date being current than current EB3 PD date? (For eg.. Eb2 I PD 1SEP 04 and EB3I 1st DEC 04- and a porter with PD 1st dec 04 date ported to EB2I which is not current).
This may happen next year (of course passing of CIR or piecemeal aproach by John Boehner may change the situation)




Here is why I think porters are not included in the Demand Data yet.

"DOS Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System (IVAMS) permits only one visa request per alien registration number (A-number) – i.e., only one visa request can be pending in the system for a particular alien.

Applicants who want to change their green card application from employment-based to family-based must initiate a request with USCIS. When USCIS receives a request to change an employment-based green card application (for which a visa is not available) to a family-based green card application (for which a visa is available), the Service Center contacts DOS to ask that the pending employment-based visa request be deleted from IVAMS."

Source : uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Ombudsman%20Liaison/Responses%20to%20Annual%20Reports/cisomb-2010-annual-report-response.pdf

From the above, considering one pending visa request per A.No , whenever uscis asks visa number for a porting case, they must delete the already pending request from the system . Eb3 cannot have two AOS(I-485) pending at the same time (1 in E2 & 1 in E3 is not allowed anymore, converting the existing to other basis is encouraged) , whenever there is an addtion to EB2 in the demand data, there must be a deletion in the eb3 total, which is not happening in any of the DD consistantly.

According to Murthy law firm,

"The interfiling request should be based on a priority date that is current, although many such requests are initiated prior to that point. Regardless, no action is taken by the USCIS unless the priority date under the new basis case is current. "

[indiani]

If all SO released in AuG VB- SO of 8300 will take to 1st JAN08
If all SO released in SEP VB- SO of 8625 will take to 1st JAN08

Indiai: Agree with your point but I think either in august/ september CO will move to Feb 2008

Whatever happens, next year will very very tough as new porters will start applying I-485, but as to get realized into demand may make about 3-4 months time (say Dec-Jan 2013 )
(Regular 07 and early 08 guys- Thank CO for his delay tactics without which this would not happen)

Indiani: I do not want to thank him for the screw up last year. Apart from suffering Bipolar disease and making erractic movements, there isn't much discipline he followed, if he did, how can Nov 2007 still wait for GC 1.5 years after 2009 got GC.

By then dates would go back to 04 or 05 or few months head of EB3 PD. But we and CO would know the trend.

Indiani: Agree

[indiani]

Question to someone who got GC and have known many who got GC:

Once my PD become current in august (Nov 2007), usually withing how many days/weeks will I get the email confirmation?

Planning to leave within 3 months of GC any problems at naturalisation ?

[indiasunil]

As per MURTHY.COM
DATES will move upto FEB'2008 in best case.

http://www.murthy.com/2013/06/11/newsflash-february-2008-best-case-estimate-for-eb2-india/

Sunil

[indiasunil]

Hi,

There is NO such Time line exists anywhere..
It is better to be nearly 6 months( bcoz GC applied for future employment ). But, I never heard or see any issue as far as I know once GC approved.

My brother left company the day he got his GC in hand.. He got Citizen ship also.. So there is no hard rule anywhere.

Sunil


Question to someone who got GC and have known many who got GC:

Once my PD become current in august (Nov 2007), usually withing how many days/weeks will I get the email confirmation?

Planning to leave within 3 months of GC any problems at naturalisation ?

[Kanmani]

bvsamrat,

Our discussion on Porting demand is related to EB3 porters whose Priority Date is NOT Current in the new category i.e., EB2.

CO's comments on heavy porting demand refers to eb3 porters whose Priority dates are Current lying between Jan 2003 to September 2004 .

Hope this resolves the confusion.

[indiani]

Hi,

There is NO such Time line exists anywhere..
It is better to be nearly 6 months( bcoz GC applied for future employment ). But, I never heard or see any issue as far as I know once GC approved.

My brother left company the day he got his GC in hand.. He got Citizen ship also.. So there is no hard rule anywhere.

Sunil

Thanks that is very useful news.

I have been working for current employer for 2 years.

Instead of changing job now and risk RFE which might kill GC chances for another year, I am planning to leave within 3-4 months after GC.

[indiani]

As per MURTHY.COM
DATES will move upto FEB'2008 in best case.

http://www.murthy.com/2013/06/11/newsflash-february-2008-best-case-estimate-for-eb2-india/

Sunil

Thanks for the very useful info, I am 100% convinced that CO has in fact predicted that as murthy will only post when they independently confirm the news.

The interesting point is " best case scenario" which perhaps is same as " as far as" .

But folks who were desperately waiting for over an year somehow wanted to believe that the Feb 2008 cutoffdate somehow is " worst case scenario" .

[druvraj]

I am convinced that the dates will move in to Feb 2008. The question is what date. My PD Feb 26. If I miss the date this time around I guess it will take at least 2 years to get back to this date. I am keeping my fingers crossed. Hopefully CO makes it Feb 28. 2008 was a leap year right?

[indiani]

LOl..almost everyone hope atleast their dates are covered,

not to discourage you but if you read murthy's flashing news Feb 2008 is "Best case scenario" .

Just sit tight and wait, my gut feeling is you will be current as CO never gives a date thats is unrealistic as he knows that the worst thing he can do.

[natvyas]

The Murthy Law Firm sought clarification from DOS on that key point. Readers should note that the February 2008 date is only an estimate of the most favorable scenario and is subject to change.

This tells me the CO isnt really sure about the total SO. This is what Spec had in his analysis of the July VB as well.

[sparty0grad]

I have been reading this blog for a while and wanted to ask something that may sound too naive to most of the readers/experts here. I have a PD of May 2011 in EB2 - considering what you guys know and have experienced in the recent years, what is a realistic timeline I should expect for getting an EAD or a GC. I already have cleared the I-140. I have seen the calculations that get posted. However, I am at a loss when it comes to figuring out how many people are ahead of me, and how many cases get reduced along what timeline. Will appreciate any thoughts. Thanks.

[JosephM]

My H1 was handled by my employer's lawyer. Does it make sense to plan on going for another lawyer by our own for filing the I485? My PD is Dec 2007. When I checked with our employer referred lawyer they suggested that there is no point to be preparing in advance based on news flashes. Is it wise to have the checklist done now and be prepared? Please advise..

[GCKnowHow]

My H1 was handled by my employer's lawyer. Does it make sense to plan on going for another lawyer by our own for filing the I485? My PD is Dec 2007. When I checked with our employer referred lawyer they suggested that there is no point to be preparing in advance based on news flashes. Is it wise to have the checklist done now and be prepared? Please advise..

you will have atleast 3 weeks to get ready to file the application. If you are curious then get download the form and fill it with all details and get it ready. So you can be ready with all data and just need a medical test.

[vizcard]

I have been reading this blog for a while and wanted to ask something that may sound too naive to most of the readers/experts here. I have a PD of May 2011 in EB2 - considering what you guys know and have experienced in the recent years, what is a realistic timeline I should expect for getting an EAD or a GC. I already have cleared the I-140. I have seen the calculations that get posted. However, I am at a loss when it comes to figuring out how many people are ahead of me, and how many cases get reduced along what timeline. Will appreciate any thoughts. Thanks.

In general the guideline is PD+5 yrs (+/- one year). the inventory report gives you # of people ahead of you until the April 2010 (the furthest the dates moved). Beyond this you can estimate by looking at Perm or I140 data and multiplying it by 2 or 2.2 (for every I-140, there are 2.2 485s due to dependents).


My H1 was handled by my employer's lawyer. Does it make sense to plan on going for another lawyer by our own for filing the I485? My PD is Dec 2007. When I checked with our employer referred lawyer they suggested that there is no point to be preparing in advance based on news flashes. Is it wise to have the checklist done now and be prepared? Please advise..

You should absolutely keep all your docs ready to go - particularly affidavits in case you need them to supplement your documentation (birth certificate, etc). You might only have 1 month to file your 485 and you definitely don't want to lose that window.

Whether or not you pick a different lawyer depends on two things - who is paying for the lawyer and your experience with the current lawyers. Keep that in mind.

[ragx08]

My H1 was handled by my employer's lawyer. Does it make sense to plan on going for another lawyer by our own for filing the I485? My PD is Dec 2007. When I checked with our employer referred lawyer they suggested that there is no point to be preparing in advance based on news flashes. Is it wise to have the checklist done now and be prepared? Please advise..

You will get enough time from when the VB is released to the first day you can file ur application - for medicals, etc. But it would not harm to gather all the documents required upfront. You may want to ask ur lawyer for the checklist of documents needed - and I don't see any reason why he/she would not provide you with one!

-Ragx

[SeekingGC2013]

All Guru's

Assuming that dates end Feb 2008 by Sept 2013 - what do you predict for PD to get to Q3 2008 again? Would it be possible in FY2014 or FY2015 without the CIR? please advice....


Very true! Just make sure you are dealing with a good lawyer. Personally I would not hesitate to pay from my pocket to hire a good one - if the employer provided lawyer is not good enough. Given the current situation, it makes a hell of a difference; An RFE (due to bad filing) could easily put you back by 2-3years!!!

[gtyagi]

Gurus:

Would you provide latest SO estimates and how many total visas will be available for EB2I? Per Murthy and Fragomen, the dates will reach as far as Feb 2008. Does that mean PDs of March, April and May should just loose hope? My PD is April 8th, 2008.

What are the estimates of SO from each category?

Please advise.

[natvyas]

Gurus:

Would you provide latest SO estimates and how many total visas will be available for EB2I? Per Murthy and Fragomen, the dates will reach as far as Feb 2008. Does that mean PDs of March, April and May should just loose hope? My PD is April 8th, 2008.

What are the estimates of SO from each category?

Please advise.

NewsFlash! February 2008 Best Case Estimate for EB2 India

June 11, 2013

The U.S. Department of State (DOS) has confirmed February 2008 as their best case estimate for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) cutoff date advancement for India. Movement in the EB2 India category in August and/or September 2013 is predicted in the July 2013 DOS Visa Bulletin, without specification as to the likely amount of such movement. The Murthy Law Firm sought clarification from DOS on that key point. Readers should note that the February 2008 date is only an estimate of the most favorable scenario and is subject to change.

The Feb 2008 date is not set in stone per the last sentence of the News flash. Spec had also mentioned the same in his analysis of the narrative in the July VB, that the CO does not have complete view of the total SO.

I'm waiting for Spec in chime in. He has been rather quiet in the past few days.

[RMS_V13]

To help with Spillovers :I heard that companies with Intracompany Transferees (L1 A) who has never sponsored GC overall, are applying for Green card for eligible employees- mostly EB1. This is mainly because of tight visa regulations, several visa rejections, heavy penalties etc. This also means lesser spill over to EB2 from EB1.

My Perception : These folks would most likely dump the company once GC arrives in 3 months and move on. How does this benefit them? Just wondering

[indiani]

NewsFlash! February 2008 Best Case Estimate for EB2 India

June 11, 2013

The U.S. Department of State (DOS) has confirmed February 2008 as their best case estimate for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) cutoff date advancement for India. Movement in the EB2 India category in August and/or September 2013 is predicted in the July 2013 DOS Visa Bulletin, without specification as to the likely amount of such movement. The Murthy Law Firm sought clarification from DOS on that key point. Readers should note that the February 2008 date is only an estimate of the most favorable scenario and is subject to change.

The Feb 2008 date is not set in stone per the last sentence of the News flash. Spec had also mentioned the same in his analysis of the narrative in the July VB, that the CO does not have complete view of the total SO.

I'm waiting for Spec in chime in. He has been rather quiet in the past few days.

when CO mentioned possible estimated COD as Feb 2008 , he knew that there is potential of enough SO to reach that date.

It might be 1-2 months more or less but not a whole lot different.

If you see page one predictions from Q and Spec ( the most trusted in the prediction business ) the dates fall well within their estimates.

No matter anyone tells you anything i think only seeing the actual bulletin gives you 100% confidence. ( Right now I am about 99% certain that it lands roughly in that area ).

[vizcard]

All Guru's

Assuming that dates end Feb 2008 by Sept 2013 - what do you predict for PD to get to Q3 2008 again? Would it be possible in FY2014 or FY2015 without the CIR? please advice....

FY14....too many variables at this time to pin point but i'm 90% sure Sept 2008 will get their GC in 2014.

[qesehmk]

You can look at 485 inventory that USCIS publishes and that will give you a decent idea how many people are ahead of you. That works well for all current countries and categories. For India and China thought the inventory is 60-80% accurate because the latest years are missing because of the backlogged natuer of their categories.

www.whereismygc.com (http://www.whereismygc.com) is a paid website forecasts future demand and has an automated forecasting simulator that will give you a decent idea of forecast as well as how many people are ahead of you and how they will be eliminated from the queue.

If just want to know the approx dates and time lines .. just read the header of this thread.
I have been reading this blog for a while and wanted to ask something that may sound too naive to most of the readers/experts here. I have a PD of May 2011 in EB2 - considering what you guys know and have experienced in the recent years, what is a realistic timeline I should expect for getting an EAD or a GC. I already have cleared the I-140. I have seen the calculations that get posted. However, I am at a loss when it comes to figuring out how many people are ahead of me, and how many cases get reduced along what timeline. Will appreciate any thoughts. Thanks.

[qesehmk]

i think you mean 2014. AND I AGREE. AND I would say that it will happen regardless where dates land by Sep 2013.
FY14....too many variables at this time to pin point but i'm 90% sure Sept 2008 will get their GC in 2008.

[druvraj]

Q,

I am not as informed as you but I feel like if the dates move into Feb 2008 then for sure the dates will retro and will take 2015 to get back to this date. EB3I will also have to move if not 2015 is also not sure. GC hopeful with PD in 2008 are very unlucky as they have to wait for EB3 to catch up.

[qesehmk]

druvraj - perhaps you should run the numbers and see how far they will take you. Also suggest look at the historical approvals for all categories and countries. Because sometimes what we feel is based on emotions or experiences (-ve or +ve). Data helps us keep it objective.

p.s. - Honestly what I or Spec or Teddy or anybody else does is not rocket science. It's just tedious and the government agencies like to be unpredictable and kind of unhelpful. That is what creates the mystery. Otherwise this whole thing is really straightforward. People come in ... they want GC ... somebody issues GC according to some rule. I mean .... how difficult is that!!!

Q,

I am not as informed as you but I feel like if the dates move into Feb 2008 then for sure the dates will retro and will take 2015 to get back to this date. EB3I will also have to move if not 2015 is also not sure. GC hopeful with PD in 2008 are very unlucky as they have to wait for EB3 to catch up.

[Still_Waiting]

Can someone please help me understand this. I'm either reading too much into the following statement from the last visa bulletin or I'm not understanding this correctly.

"A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014"

Does this mean that the COD will not fall back to 2006/2007 in the October 2013 bulletin? Here's why I'm asking. My PD is in Nov 2007 but I'm applying for I-485 for the first time. If the COD moves beyond Nov 2007 in the next visa bulletin and I apply on time, I'll get an EAD but most likely not a GC before the end of this fiscal (60 odd day window). But that assumes that the COD will immediately fall back to some time before Nov 2007 in the October visa bulletin. However, if that doesn't happen, doesn't it then extend the time frame in which I can get a GC by another month (thereby making the window 90 odd days) making it more likely that I'll get the GC this year?

[druvraj]

druvraj - perhaps you should run the numbers and see how far they will take you. Also suggest look at the historical approvals for all categories and countries. Because sometimes what we feel is based on emotions or experiences (-ve or +ve). Data helps us keep it objective.

p.s. - Honestly what I or Spec or Teddy or anybody else does is not rocket science. It's just tedious and the government agencies like to be unpredictable and kind of unhelpful. That is what creates the mystery. Otherwise this whole thing is really straightforward. People come in ... they want GC ... somebody issues GC according to some rule. I mean .... how difficult is that!!!

Q,

If you see in 2011 when SOFAD season started (June till aug) EB2I cases from 2006 were getting approved and now in 2013 we are still looking at dates that might only clear cases from 2007. 2 years hence no real permanent movement. Not to mention cases that will be added from EB3 that dates back to 2005/6/7 if porters have their way which they will this summer. If you look at the data and if EB3 porters are doubled when the dates move into Feb 2008 and if we see EB3ww category porters also getting added not to mention (because of the stagnation in EB2I category will cause) people rushing to upgrade their application to EB1C there might be only be enough SOFAD in 2014 to approve cases that are porters Only. This year we got lucky with FB spillover. Imagine without it what might be the movement. I am assuming that next year will be like this year without FB spillover and most of the SOFAD will be used by porters.

I have learnt a lot from the exchanges on this forum and if my estimates are over reaching in any way please feel free to delete it.

[indiani]

druvraj - perhaps you should run the numbers and see how far they will take you. Also suggest look at the historical approvals for all categories and countries. Because sometimes what we feel is based on emotions or experiences (-ve or +ve). Data helps us keep it objective.

p.s. - Honestly what I or Spec or Teddy or anybody else does is not rocket science. It's just tedious and the government agencies like to be unpredictable and kind of unhelpful. That is what creates the mystery. Otherwise this whole thing is really straightforward. People come in ... they want GC ... somebody issues GC according to some rule. I mean .... how difficult is that!!!

Q,

what is your hunch about the august COD, do you think they will cover nov 2007.

I have my entire life planned on that piece of card. so don't get mad if this is rather redundant question especially this late in the fiscal year.

[indiani]

Can someone please help me understand this. I'm either reading too much into the following statement from the last visa bulletin or I'm not understanding this correctly.

"A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014"

Does this mean that the COD will not fall back to 2006/2007 in the October 2013 bulletin? Here's why I'm asking. My PD is in Nov 2007 but I'm applying for I-485 for the first time. If the COD moves beyond Nov 2007 in the next visa bulletin and I apply on time, I'll get an EAD but most likely not a GC before the end of this fiscal (60 odd day window). But that assumes that the COD will immediately fall back to some time before Nov 2007 in the October visa bulletin. However, if that doesn't happen, doesn't it then extend the time frame in which I can get a GC by another month (thereby making the window 90 odd days) making it more likely that I'll get the GC this year?

Most likely they might retrogress as they cannot give more visas than monthly quota unless they know exact spillover which will happen after 2 quarters.

You might be lucky to ger GC within 2 months. Go to FP as soon as you get notice, don't wait for appointment date, if FB clearance happens then you might get in september.

Q and others believe that it might not retrogess before 2007 ( I personally hope they don't ) but realistically I think they will retrogress

[qesehmk]

Indiani - I do not know when but by Sep 2013 nov 2007 must clear. All the best to you.
Q,

what is your hunch about the august COD, do you think they will cover nov 2007.

I have my entire life planned on that piece of card. so don't get mad if this is rather redundant question especially this late in the fiscal year.

[qesehmk]

druvraj - I agree that porting is only going to intensify. That's a valid argument. I also agree that EB3 porting is serious threat to reduce / vanish EB2ROW. However the FB spillover this year is what makes me confident about dates moving into 2008. The dates are artificially held back on a technicality of 7% quota for a country i.e. India. If there were quarterly spillover - the dates wouldn't be held back at all. Unfortunately nobody is holding CO's feet to fire on that issue. Trust me if EB2I were to unite and work on it for themselves - this will significantly reduce their pain.

As per next year - I can't predict anything next year without seeing how this year went. But if we look into history then I wouldn't be as pessimistic as you.

p.s. - Don't worry about arguments. That's what makes a dialogue worthwhile!!


Q,

If you see in 2011 when SOFAD season started (June till aug) EB2I cases from 2006 were getting approved and now in 2013 we are still looking at dates that might only clear cases from 2007. 2 years hence no real permanent movement. Not to mention cases that will be added from EB3 that dates back to 2005/6/7 if porters have their way which they will this summer. If you look at the data and if EB3 porters are doubled when the dates move into Feb 2008 and if we see EB3ww category porters also getting added not to mention (because of the stagnation in EB2I category will cause) people rushing to upgrade their application to EB1C there might be only be enough SOFAD in 2014 to approve cases that are porters Only. This year we got lucky with FB spillover. Imagine without it what might be the movement. I am assuming that next year will be like this year without FB spillover and most of the SOFAD will be used by porters.

I have learnt a lot from the exchanges on this forum and if my estimates are over reaching in any way please feel free to delete it.

[vizcard]

Q,

If you see in 2011 when SOFAD season started (June till aug) EB2I cases from 2006 were getting approved and now in 2013 we are still looking at dates that might only clear cases from 2007. 2 years hence no real permanent movement. Not to mention cases that will be added from EB3 that dates back to 2005/6/7 if porters have their way which they will this summer. If you look at the data and if EB3 porters are doubled when the dates move into Feb 2008 and if we see EB3ww category porters also getting added not to mention (because of the stagnation in EB2I category will cause) people rushing to upgrade their application to EB1C there might be only be enough SOFAD in 2014 to approve cases that are porters Only. This year we got lucky with FB spillover. Imagine without it what might be the movement. I am assuming that next year will be like this year without FB spillover and most of the SOFAD will be used by porters.

I have learnt a lot from the exchanges on this forum and if my estimates are over reaching in any way please feel free to delete it.

Last year they were approving 2008 cases..how do we feel about that? They have "processed" cases all the way till May 2010 i.e. preadjudicated cases

You can't go what they are processing. You have to look at the demand, visa consumption and spillover numbers.

[Spectator]

The dates are artificially held back on a technicality of 7% quota for a country i.e. India. If there were quarterly spillover - the dates wouldn't be held back at all. Unfortunately nobody is holding CO's feet to fire on that issue. Trust me if EB2I were to unite and work on it for themselves - this will significantly reduce their pain.Q,

What quarterly spillover?

Last year was not a free lunch. The consequences of EB2-IC using too many visas is that no spillover is available to EB2-I until the final quarter.

Any spare visas to date this year have been required by EB2-WW to repay those borrowed by EB2-IC last year.

EB2-I can only receive spillover once there is no further demand from EB2-WW. That hasn't been the case, so no extra visas have been available to EB2-I.

CO is only following the interpretation of the law exactly as he did last year.

[geeaarpee]

Q,

What quarterly spillover?

Last year was not a free lunch. The consequences of EB2-IC using too many visas is that no spillover is available to EB2-I until the final quarter.

Any spare visas to date this year have been required by EB2-WW to repay those borrowed by EB2-IC last year.

EB2-I can only receive spillover once there is no further demand from EB2-WW. That hasn't been the case, so no extra visas have been available to EB2-I.

CO is only following the interpretation of the law exactly as he did last year.

Who asked CO to over-allocate the visas? You (CO) can easily say USCIS provided me wrong data; but even now USCIS is doing the same, not doing anything extra to provide you correct data - it is the same kind of data you are getting from USCIS even now but now you are cautious right and you've LEARNT that it will take few months for the demand to show up.

HOW MANY SUCH THINGS ARE YOU GOING TO LEARN AFTER COMMITTING MISTAKES?

You are not a college grad to say that I committed a mistake last year and see I learnt from that mistake this year and I'm not committing it any more. SHAME ON YOU, if you even try to say that!

[indiani]

Who asked CO to over-allocate the visas? You (CO) can easily say USCIS provided me wrong data; but even now USCIS is doing the same, not doing anything extra to provide you correct data - it is the same kind of data you are getting from USCIS even now but now you are cautious right and you've LEARNT that it will take few months for the demand to show up.

HOW MANY SUCH THINGS ARE YOU GOING TO LEARN AFTER COMMITTING MISTAKES?

You are not a college grad to say that I committed a mistake last year and see I learnt from that mistake this year and I'm not committing it any more. SHAME ON YOU, if you even try to say that!



If someone works for the govt, and they screw up something and someone loses, its almost always miscommunication or something.

In fact people lose lives when they are unable to prevent terrorsit activities etc., they never say " someone is incompetent or something" its always a "miscommunication" . but as regular people we do something and someone loses anything, they sure will sue the hell including the attorney fees.

Any moron who followed the cut offdates long enough would have known that moving dates that far in 2010 is insane but CO did it anyway. How the heck did 2007 folks are missed while some 2010 PD applicants got GC.

There is no limit to asylum seekers (many of then are fake) like the boston bombers who freely moved in and out of russia, cubans ( castros aren't persecuting everyone forever ), unnecessary diversity visas ( this country is more diverse than almost all developed countries ) but someone they made a big deal few years ago when there was a bill to recapture lost EB visas which were wasted b'cos of their incompetence.

As much as I love living this country somehow the immigration system is one of the worst of all the developed nations.
sorry for the rant but I just want to get it off my chest

[qesehmk]

GRP and Indiani ... please keep the language civil. First of all Spec is Spec - not CO. Don't rail on him. Secondly, CO is just one guy in the system and for all you know he might be doing his best. We don't know. Criticism based on facts is good. But don't vent on him.

Spec - I think we have gone over this many times. You look at the historical SOFAD and tell me how many times EB2I has received sofad on a quarterly basis as opposed to at the end of year. So that's what I am talking about. Last year indeed there was sofad given in Q1 and possibly in Q2. But that is the only (i can't even say honorable) exception. Otherwise show me how many times SOFAD has been provided in quarterly manner.

[Spectator]

Spec - I think we have gone over this many times. You look at the historical SOFAD and tell me how many times EB2I has received sofad on a quarterly basis as opposed to at the end of year. So that's what I am talking about. Last year indeed there was sofad given in Q1 and possibly in Q2. But that is the only (i can't even say honorable) exception. Otherwise show me how many times SOFAD has been provided in quarterly manner.Q,

We may differ, but I think quarterly spillover is a very recent phenomenon based on historical facts.

FY2008 - Movement in August - No apparent quarterly spillover.
FY2009 - Movement in August - An odd year of progress and retrogression.
FY2010 - Movement in July - No apparent quarterly spillover.
FY2011 - Movement in May - Spillover applied from Q2, but this was a year with very low EB1 approvals.
FY2012 - Movement from October - Quarterly spillover on steroids - all EB2 visas used in less than 6 months.

I think you miss my point about this year. The quarterly spillover rules have been applied, but EB2-WW needed the spare visas, so none were available to EB2-I under the law governing quarterly spillover.

What will be interesting is to see what happens next year. Given EB2-WW will return to a normal approval pattern, some Fall Across from EB2-WW should be available. If quarterly spillover is applied (and I hope it is), it should flow to EB2-I. That would allow some movement during the year, albeit from a quite retrogressed date.

This year is atypical and is a reaction to what happened last year. I said last year that the effects would carry on through FY2013 and that has indeed been the case.

[qesehmk]

Spec -

Thanks for confirming. So yes Qly spillover, although in laws, was never applied before 2008 and has been rarely applied since 2008.

As per 2012 - I wouldn't disagree but that was a case when visas were available (i.e. extra ones) and inventory was low and categories (i.e. EB2IC) were backlogged. So it was like - yes we have exhausted all means of keeping EB2I from advancing ... but now that we run out of options ... here is some spillover.

I am sorry to say this ... but that's how I look at that movement. The 2011 Q3 movement is also similar but a bit measured compared to 2012 Q1/Q2 move.

As per 2013 - I am not sure EB2ROW was so much affected at all in terms of movement. But it is agreeable that whatever way affected has to be compensated in 2013 and there will be some effect. In general talking about 2013 is not fruitful since we do not know how this will turn up eventually. But I think the 16K FB visas is more than compensatory for any of the EB2ROW effects from 2012 fiasco. But still no Qly spillover in 2013.

So - I don't know spec why and what you are trying to defend (as in "What spillover?"). You are quite a data guy yourself. All I pointed out is ... instead of EB2I receiving 10-20K SOFAD at the end of year ... if every quarter they receive 5K, that wouldn't necessitate any of these retro moves and people have much better confidence in how EB2I is going to behave in future.


p.s. - All other discussion about this blog's ownership has been moved to http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2133-Qs-Blog-Ownership-and-Future . Any thoughts are welcome.

Q,

We may differ, but I think quarterly spillover is a very recent phenomenon based on historical facts.

FY2008 - Movement in August - No apparent quarterly spillover.
FY2009 - Movement in August - An odd year of progress and retrogression.
FY2010 - Movement in July - No apparent quarterly spillover.
FY2011 - Movement in May - Spillover applied from Q2, but this was a year with very low EB1 approvals.
FY2012 - Movement from October - Quarterly spillover on steroids - all EB2 visas used in less than 6 months.

I think you miss my point about this year. The quarterly spillover rules have been applied, but EB2-WW needed the spare visas, so none were available to EB2-I under the law governing quarterly spillover.

What will be interesting is to see what happens next year. Given EB2-WW will return to a normal approval pattern, some Fall Across from EB2-WW should be available. If quarterly spillover is applied (and I hope it is), it should flow to EB2-I. That would allow some movement during the year, albeit from a quite retrogressed date.

This year is atypical and is a reaction to what happened last year. I said last year that the effects would carry on through FY2013 and that has indeed been the case.

[NOV2007]

Okey, lets get back to the topic.
Guru's could you pls let me know when FEB2008(Or NOV2007) will become COD, is that in next bulletin? or in SeptVB? I need to plan myself to bring in my spouse when dates are current. I want to bring in if am sure dates are current next month otherwise I can plan to bring in Aug month.


@indiani - perhaps it was my mistake to club you with GRP. Sorry about that.

This forum certainly is - for now - privately owned by me. But I had nothing of that sort in my mind when I asked to keep it civil.

I have expressed desire in the past to form a not for profit that can own the forum and run it. There is some minimal bureaucratic work to maintain a 501C organization. So I will encourage people to think about it again. After a while I will move this to a new thread where we can open it up for discussion. All thoughts are welcome.

[GCKnowHow]

Okey, lets get back to the topic.
Guru's could you pls let me know when FEB2008(Or NOV2007) will become COD, is that in next bulletin? or in SeptVB? I need to plan myself to bring in my spouse when dates are current. I want to bring in if am sure dates are current next month otherwise I can plan to bring in Aug month.

I would guess no one can assure of the date.
Next bulletin will be for effective Aug so you should be good if she is returning in Aug.

[Eb2_Dec07]

For Eb2-I Dec 4 - 2007 PD , currently on EAD , pending 485 approval . Is it ok to be travelling outside USA on business and if in the next VB the date becomes current and GC is issued , would there be any issues during port of entry using AP. Any issues ?

[gc0907]

Entering on AP shouldn't be a problem as that's one of the purpose AP serves.


For Eb2-I Dec 4 - 2007 PD , currently on EAD , pending 485 approval . Is it ok to be travelling outside USA on business and if in the next VB the date becomes current and GC is issued , would there be any issues during port of entry using AP. Any issues ?

[erikbond101]

Spec -

Thanks for confirming. So yes Qly spillover, although in laws, was never applied before 2008 and has been rarely applied since 2008.

As per 2012 - I wouldn't disagree but that was a case when visas were available (i.e. extra ones) and inventory was low and categories (i.e. EB2IC) were backlogged. So it was like - yes we have exhausted all means of keeping EB2I from advancing ... but now that we run out of options ... here is some spillover.

I am sorry to say this ... but that's how I look at that movement. The 2011 Q3 movement is also similar but a bit measured compared to 2012 Q1/Q2 move.

As per 2013 - I am not sure EB2ROW was so much affected at all in terms of movement. But it is agreeable that whatever way affected has to be compensated in 2013 and there will be some effect. In general talking about 2013 is not fruitful since we do not know how this will turn up eventually. But I think the 16K FB visas is more than compensatory for any of the EB2ROW effects from 2012 fiasco. But still no Qly spillover in 2013.

So - I don't know spec why and what you are trying to defend (as in "What spillover?"). You are quite a data guy yourself. All I pointed out is ... instead of EB2I receiving 10-20K SOFAD at the end of year ... if every quarter they receive 5K, that wouldn't necessitate any of these retro moves and people have much better confidence in how EB2I is going to behave in future.


p.s. - All other discussion about this blog's ownership has been moved to http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2132-Qs-Blog-Ownership-and-Future . Any thoughts are welcome.

Q,
Even if SO can be applied quarterly to EB2 categories, It is not possible to calculate for DHS/USCIS right away and then apply in first 2 quarters. As we have seen it depends on so many variables (not talking about porting) to exactly calculate SO.
eg FB visas only become available in the 5th month of FY 13. It is not wisely to give SO in first 2 quarters and run empty handed in last quarter like CO did in 2012 for EB2-ROW.

[qesehmk]

erikbond actually it is so so easy you wont believe it.

#1 - At the start of each quarter calculate all quotas at country category etc level.
#2 - At the end of each quarter look how many of those are issued.
#3 - Assume 100% utilization of #2. See if there is still unutilized.
#4 - Issue whatever is left from #3 step to backlogged countries and categories in strict PD order within a category.

It is super easy. DoS just doesn't want to do it for whatever reason.

Q,
Even if SO can be applied quarterly to EB2 categories, It is not possible to calculate for DHS/USCIS right away and then apply in first 2 quarters. As we have seen it depends on so many variables (not talking about porting) to exactly calculate SO.
eg FB visas only become available in the 5th month of FY 13. It is not wisely to give SO in first 2 quarters and run empty handed in last quarter like CO did in 2012 for EB2-ROW.

[tanu_75]

erikbond actually it is so so easy you wont believe it.

#1 - At the start of each quarter calculate all quotas at country category etc level.
#2 - At the end of each quarter look how many of those are issued.
#3 - Assume 100% utilization of #2. See if there is still unutilized.
#4 - Issue whatever is left from #3 step to backlogged countries and categories in strict PD order within a category.

It is super easy. DoS just doesn't want to do it for whatever reason.

It's easy but it's error prone. There's no concept of a quarterly quota, only an annual quota for each country/region. If you start applying quarterly quotas and satisfying demand on such a granular basis then you will eventually run into problems when there is anomalous demand behavior in some quarters for some regions. Last year is a great example, where EB2WW ended up dry in the middle of the year because all EB2's were awarded of to EB2C/I. While I'm thankful it happened and I got greened, it's not necessarily a safe method if you are the person responsible for allocating/distributing visas.

[qesehmk]

I am sorry. You are wrong. USCIS is required to use 27% of visas each quarter. That is quarterly quota.

It's easy but it's error prone. There's no concept of a quarterly quota, only an annual quota for each country/region. If you start applying quarterly quotas and satisfying demand on such a granular basis then you will eventually run into problems when there is anomalous demand behavior in some quarters for some regions. Last year is a great example, where EB2WW ended up dry in the middle of the year because all EB2's were awarded of to EB2C/I. While I'm thankful it happened and I got greened, it's not necessarily a safe method if you are the person responsible for allocating/distributing visas.

[vizcard]

It's easy but it's error prone. There's no concept of a quarterly quota, only an annual quota for each country/region. If you start applying quarterly quotas and satisfying demand on such a granular basis then you will eventually run into problems when there is anomalous demand behavior in some quarters for some regions. Last year is a great example, where EB2WW ended up dry in the middle of the year because all EB2's were awarded of to EB2C/I. While I'm thankful it happened and I got greened, it's not necessarily a safe method if you are the person responsible for allocating/distributing visas.


I am sorry. You are wrong. USCIS is required to use 27% of visas each quarter. That is quarterly quota.

The fundamental issue to me seems to be this aversion to have CODs for other categories.

[Spectator]

I am sorry. You are wrong. USCIS is required to use 27% of visas each quarter. That is quarterly quota.Q,

That is not correct either.

There is no requirement to use 27% in each of the first 3 quarters - it is a only maximum that may not be exceeded. The law does not mention minimum use, or that it is required to be met.

It is a moot point for this year anyway. The 27% limit appears to have been reached in each of the first 2 quarters and EB2 received far in excess of 27% of their allocation in each of the first 2 quarters. It doesn't appear it will be reached in the third quarter for EB.


The fundamental issue to me seems to be this aversion to have CODs for other categories.vizcard,

I'm not sure whether by Category you mean EB1 etc or ROW etc.

A COD for EB2-ROW would generally require EB2-I to be made Unavailable if they had already used the 7% allocation.

By law, spare (or otherwise unused visas) are only available to Countries that have already reached the 7% limit when there is no further demand from Countries who have not yet reached their 7% limit.

If a COD is imposed on those Countries, then by definition there are insufficient visas available to meet that demand and therefore no spare visas can be available. Potentially, EB2-M and EB2-P could have a COD (although that is unlikely due to the overall 7% interpretation), but unless EB2-ROW remains Current, there can be no spillover to EB2-I.

But similarly, if a COD was imposed on EB1, then that would mean that there were no spare visas to Fall Down. The only potential spare numbers would be Fall Across from EB2-WW.

I hope I understood your post correctly.

[vizcard]

Spec - my comment was in response to Q's quarterly spillover comment. By rules, everything you say is right... but CO has bent the rules before :) .. and I'm not sure there are repurcussions to him. Last year was an example where he messed up big time.

In any case, I don't see any change in trends for EB2I as far as how spillover is assigned. If you don't get it one summer, you wait for the next one.

[gckabaayega]

Does anyone know what to write in the EVL for self employment? Currently, I do not have enough revenues and I am not paying myself a salary. What kinda EVL can I send out in case the RFE is about EVL?

[qesehmk]

Spec - agree that 27% is upper limit. But then why does the law talk about "Quarterly spillover"? Because if there is no minimum then DoS can (and unfortunately has been) adjusting the min level to ensure there is no spillover and some countries remain chronically backlogged. Tell me I am wrong on this one.

The law doesn't explicitly specify minimum levels but the fact that the law expects quarterly spillovers implies that the intention of the lawmakers was for USCIS to use 1/4th of the limit, ideally 27% to ensure visas are not wasted at the end of the year and keep a lid on quarterly usage at 27% to ensure visas are not all frontloaded either.

It is much more unsettling that Visa Office interprets law as if its ok to use less than 25% visas while there are countries that are severely severely backlogged. That is outrageous.


Q,

That is not correct either.

There is no requirement to use 27% in each of the first 3 quarters - it is a only maximum that may not be exceeded. The law does not mention minimum use, or that it is required to be met.

It is a moot point for this year anyway. The 27% limit appears to have been reached in each of the first 2 quarters and EB2 received far in excess of 27% of their allocation in each of the first 2 quarters. It doesn't appear it will be reached in the third quarter for EB.

vizcard,

I'm not sure whether by Category you mean EB1 etc or ROW etc.

A COD for EB2-ROW would generally require EB2-I to be made Unavailable if they had already used the 7% allocation.

By law, spare (or otherwise unused visas) are only available to Countries that have already reached the 7% limit when there is no further demand from Countries who have not yet reached their 7% limit.

If a COD is imposed on those Countries, then by definition there are insufficient visas available to meet that demand and therefore no spare visas can be available. Potentially, EB2-M and EB2-P could have a COD (although that is unlikely due to the overall 7% interpretation), but unless EB2-ROW remains Current, there can be no spillover to EB2-I.

But similarly, if a COD was imposed on EB1, then that would mean that there were no spare visas to Fall Down. The only potential spare numbers would be Fall Across from EB2-WW.

I hope I understood your post correctly.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I've a july '08 Eb-2 pd & missed filing 485 in Jan '12. Is there a chance that CO might move dates past july '08 by sept vb? If yes, could he hold it or even go further than july '08 in FY '14?

[Spectator]

Spec - agree that 27% is upper limit. But then why does the law talk about "Quarterly spillover"? Because if there is no minimum then DoS can (and unfortunately has been) adjusting the min level to ensure there is no spillover and some countries remain chronically backlogged. Tell me I am wrong on this one.Q,

You are wrong on this one.

[qesehmk]

I am afraid not Spec. The data is out there.
Q,

You are wrong on this one.

[Spectator]

I am afraid not Spec. The data is out there.Q,

Unfortunately it is not.

Quite apart form the fact that 27% has been reached in each of the completed quarters to date, there are times when the figure might not reach 27%.

The law allows DOS to use estimates of future use.

Let's take the present case for EB3-ROW. Dates have advanced such that new applications are needed. They can't be approved immediately and that will result in a demand lull. Nonetheless CO knows demand from them is likely later in the year.

He must account for that fact, even if it means the 27% limit is not reached in a quarter because those visa numbers will be required in a later quarter. Similarly, he can't allocate unused EB1 visas per quarter if he believes the demand will increase later in the year, as it has done in the past.

Ensuring that each Country receives the initial visa number they are allowed by law has a higher priority than allocating spare visas. Quite rightly, CO will not allocate them until he has a reasonable certainty that they will actually not be needed. Having said that, I am surprised that he did not release any in the July VB.

You appear to be advocating giving those visas away due to fluctuations in the demand pattern.

That would not be correct and is not what the law intended.

[qesehmk]

Similarly, he can't allocate unused EB1 visas per quarter if he believes the demand will increase later in the year, as it has done in the past.

...

You appear to be advocating giving those visas away due to fluctuations in the demand pattern.

...
That would not be correct and is not what the law intended.
Spec - thanks. Now at least we are talking to the heart of the matter. Yes I am advocating exactly that. DOS acting on belief that demand will increase is injustice to backlogged countries. The repurcussions of EB2ROW staying current with median wait times increases of 10-20% are much less severe than EB2I "artificially" retrogressing into 2004 because of DoS' decision to act on its belief that demand for EB1 will increase.

I think it is illegal and unjust.

[desitiger]

Does this mean dates will move to June 2008?

[immitime]

Spec - thanks. Now at least we are talking to the heart of the matter. Yes I am advocating exactly that. DOS acting on belief that demand will increase is injustice to backlogged countries. The repurcussions of EB2ROW staying current with median wait times increases of 10-20% are much less severe than EB2I "artificially" retrogressing into 2004 because of DoS' decision to act on its belief that demand for EB1 will increase.

I think it is illegal and unjust.

Q,

After the portings and (still happening don't you think USCIS should reduce that demand on the EB-3 queue.. Portings are counted on EB3 and also for EB2 queue. Only focusing on EB2 alone do not do good for the immigrant community.

I think it is Illegal and unjust done for years for the people on Eb3 queue.:)

[qesehmk]

immitime - the double count doesn't really hurt anybody since visas are not double allocated to those two cases. So the dates will progress exactly as they would when demand is not double counted.

I agree that focusing on one category/country alone doesn't do much good to overall immigrant community. That's why CIR is so critical because it helps everybody.
Q,

After the portings and (still happening don't you think USCIS should reduce that demand on the EB-3 queue.. Portings are counted on EB3 and also for EB2 queue. Only focusing on EB2 alone do not do good for the immigrant community.

I think it is Illegal and unjust done for years for the people on Eb3 queue.:)

[immitime]

immitime - the double count doesn't really hurt anybody since visas are not double allocated to those two cases. So the dates will progress exactly as they would when demand is not double counted.

I agree that focusing on one category/country alone doesn't do much good to overall immigrant community. That's why CIR is so critical because it helps everybody.

Q,

What do you mean by double count doesn't really hurt? Visas are not double allocated of course but EB3 Priroty Date can move right, as per the June 7th demand data EB3 India until Jan 1st 2004 is around 10,000. For example if they takeout the porting cases the count can be 4000 or 6000 right.
That will move the EB3 India PD more faster do you agree?

CIR.. is like the grass which never reaches the cow.. I personally have no expectation on that bill. If it happens it happens that is it. Every year they come with this kind of bill. I will always say some people get benefits due to spillover. While others are waiting with an EAD with PD 2003. That is injustice to the core.

[qesehmk]

Since most of the EB3 have already filed 485 (i.e. dates upto mid 2007), the advance in date means nothing to them. Of course those who missed the boat will be benefited from the advanced dates. Now given how predictable EB3I has become (because all they are ever going to get is quota - nothing more + new demand is zero for the period of time where approvals are taking place), the advancement in dates is already happening faster than it would've been in lieu of portings. So we are really talking about a very small number of people who haven't filed 485 and who will get benefitted for a relatively small window of time. But i guess -- still yes - if DoS USCIS could understand this .. they should really act on it and eliminate the double count.
Q,

What do you mean by double count doesn't really hurt? Visas are not double allocated of course but EB3 Priroty Date can move right, as per the June 7th demand data EB3 India until Jan 1st 2004 is around 10,000. For example if they takeout the porting cases the count can be 4000 or 6000 right.
That will move the EB3 India PD more faster do you agree?

CIR.. is like the grass which never reaches the cow.. I personally have no expectation on that bill. If it happens it happens that is it. Every year they come with this kind of bill. I will always say some people get benefits due to spillover. While others are waiting with an EAD with PD 2003. That is injustice to the core.

[Kanmani]

immitime,

I don't know the case of uscis, but Eb3 porting numbers are not double counted by DoS, they stay in the Eb3 queue until a visa number is requested by the uscis. Whenever eb2 is retrogressed, porting cases are neither eb3 nor eb2 , they stay in between for sometime .

I completely agree with you that this is a hindrance to the Eb3 CoD movement.

[Silverlining027]

http://immigration-law.com/

OH Law Firm Speculating: EB2 I PD: Aug 2008 in Aug/Sep VB.

[vizcard]

http://immigration-law.com/

OH Law Firm Speculating: EB2 I PD: Aug 2008 in Aug/Sep VB.

I'm assuming that's august 1 2008. .. woe is me :p

[Kanmani]

Sorry for the confusion - what i meant was that they are taken out of Demand i.e pre-adjudicated and back in "pending" i.e. not pre-adjudicated ... not specifically referring to the documents.

The response accuracy % (or some better term for it) won't affect consumption of visas ... it'll affect who consumes them though. For example,

Demand up to March 2008 - 10000 (made up numbers). If you go by straight demand, if you have 10000 spillover, people up to March 2008 will get visas.
Now assume 50% of the people get RFEs and 80% of those people will respond and their responses will get processed in time. True demand that'll consumer spillover reduces to 9000. that'll mean there will be 1000 visas for folks post March 2008.

That's why % of RFEs sent out and % processed are all both items (I've lumped them together as response accuracy %). This is not a new phenomenon but its especially relevant this year due to the wide range of spillover projections and the timing for releasing those.

Agreed partially.

You are calling it as a theoretical process ( pre-adj to non pre-adj for sometime) , with an assumption that this is a behind the scene procedure carried out without affecting the Demand Data , Do you agree that the DoS is uninformed of this final stage verification ?

If the answer is 'Yes' , then the DoS would assign visa numbers as per their protocol (Visa Number to Alien Number basis from the existing DD) on 1st August including the RFE cases .

The USCIS must hold the visa number of the RFE recipients at least for 84 days to return them to DoS , Meanwhile the sept bulletin is due which would make the DoS to move the dates as per their data not including the potential returns from the uscis.

As per your example, my claim is that those 1000 will still be on hold at least until september 5th to 10th approx , will not impact the Sept visa bulletin .

[longwait100]

As several thousands of RFE responses needs to be looked at , there might be a chance that all these won't be processed in time and by sept bulletin CO might decide to move it way further into late 2008.

FIFO of course cannot be implemented in the current scenario.

I think CO might be thinking " I am giving X number to India" but not necessarily care whether a 2007 PD applicant gets GC before late 2008 applicant.

If we "2007 PD" folks miss again even if we do everything the right way, it will be another disaster for us.

Indiani, I can understand your concern about an applicant with a later PD getting GC before an applicant that has an earlier PD (I've been through it myself last year), but isn't the new memo applicable to all applications from now onwards?.... so even if CO decides to move dates aggressively in Sep bulletin, the RFE rule would still apply to the later PDs that would become current in that bulletin.
By sending out RFEs to applicants with PDs upto late 2008, looks like USCIS is ensuring they have enough applications ready in the pipeline for final approval in August & September even though the real supply from the SO numbers may only suffice demand upto Feb 2008 as mentioned in the earlier communications with Fragomen.

[Kanmani]

Then there's a significant risk of wastage because Sept 10 would be the the OCt VB i.e. next fiscal year. So he would almost need to move it ahead another couple of months just in case.. no?

Viz,

What I think is there would be some kind of understanding between the agencies not to waste visas atleast from uscis handled cases.

They cannot move dates beyond their limit , I am saying this in view of some law suits with DoS against their visa allocation policies, in defense they straightaway pinpoint the uscis as processing authority and in turn they follow as per the Demand Data provided to them, which shows DD is their weapon.

The left over will be from few inevitable denials only, I personally think those few left over numbers will be allocated to the fresh applications with current priority date received at that time (before adjudication) or may be to fresh interfiling request, not sure though.

[qesehmk]

Friends .... all RFE discussion is moved to

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2138-2013-RFE-Frenzy (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2138-2013-RFE-Frenzy)

Please keep this thread for calculations and forecasts and visa allocation etc.

[vizcard]

Viz,

What I think is there would be some kind of understanding between the agencies not to waste visas atleast from uscis handled cases.

They cannot move dates beyond their limit , I am saying this in view of some law suits with DoS against their visa allocation policies, in defense they straightaway pinpoint the uscis as processing authority and in turn they follow as per the Demand Data provided to them, which shows DD is their weapon.

The left over will be from few inevitable denials only, I personally think those few left over numbers will be allocated to the fresh applications with current priority date received at that time (before adjudication) or may be to fresh interfiling request, not sure though.

I'm sure CP plays a role here too.

[qesehmk]

Kanmani - i am sorry i haven't quite followed the discussion. But if there is talk about wholesale RFEs and as a result moving dates way ahead to compensate ; yes that's exactly what will happen now. The dates must move much farther than sustainable level and in the process some people get GC ... some don't and then as usual CO will retrogress once again. IMHO the sustainable level is around Feb 2008. CO may move dates well beyond that if he thinks there are way too many RFEs which create potential to waste visas for this year.
Viz,

What I think is there would be some kind of understanding between the agencies not to waste visas atleast from uscis handled cases.

They cannot move dates beyond their limit , I am saying this in view of some law suits with DoS against their visa allocation policies, in defense they straightaway pinpoint the uscis as processing authority and in turn they follow as per the Demand Data provided to them, which shows DD is their weapon.

The left over will be from few inevitable denials only, I personally think those few left over numbers will be allocated to the fresh applications with current priority date received at that time (before adjudication) or may be to fresh interfiling request, not sure though.

[Kanmani]

Q,

This discussion was in view of the new RFE response time implemented ( changed from 45 days to 87 days i.e., 84 days + 3 days uscis postal delay), in my opinion this is the first time we are going to see the effects of it . (FY 2012 is an exemption on all aspects)

The time interval between the RFE issue to decision is now 3 months, neither of the agencies USCIS or Dos could speculate the real time usage to move the dates further in my opinion.

[qesehmk]

Ok. Thanks. Since there is still more than 90 days to go till end of this Fiscal ... they don't need to overcompensate now for all the RFEs issues until now.
Q,

This discussion was in view of the new RFE response time implemented ( changed from 45 days to 87 days i.e., 84 days + 3 days uscis postal delay), in my opinion this is the first time we are going to see the effects of it . (FY 2012 is an exemption on all aspects)

The time interval between the RFE issue to decision is now 3 months, neither of the agencies USCIS or Dos could speculate the real time usage to move the dates further in my opinion.

[MATT2012]

Q,

This discussion was in view of the new RFE response time implemented ( changed from 45 days to 87 days i.e., 84 days + 3 days uscis postal delay), in my opinion this is the first time we are going to see the effects of it . (FY 2012 is an exemption on all aspects)

The time interval between the RFE issue to decision is now 3 months, neither of the agencies USCIS or Dos could speculate the real time usage to move the dates further in my opinion.

if an RFE is generated before priority date get current, Will the case be removed from demand, as the case is no more pre-adjudicated?

[Kanmani]

if an RFE is generated before priority date get current, Will the case be removed from demand, as the case is no more pre-adjudicated?

Matt, you may have to read my earlier post here first....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013?p=36121#post36121

Adding a case to IVAMS is spontaneous, but in the case of removal, request should sent to DoS with reasons.

I don't think they'll remove from the Demand.

[druvraj]

So what is the final SO count that we have somewhat agreed upon.

8-18K are the extreme range right?

mid point 13K, Should clear all application up to March 15 2008 if FIFO.

[MATT2012]

Matt, you may have to read my earlier post here first....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013?p=36121#post36121

Adding a case to IVAMS is spontaneous, but in the case of removal, request should sent to DoS with reasons.

I don't think they'll remove from the Demand.

Thanks Kanmani, I remember your earlier post.

So your thought is these RFE cases will stay in demand and visa office will allocate visa when PD gets current as the case is pre-adjudicated. USCIS will wait until the end of response time which is 87 days( somewhere close to Sep mid)/ RFE response. if RFE response is satisfactory GC will be issued. Sounds logical to me, and the timing of mid Sep also is molding really well. I hope that is the case. As majority of the cases are EVL, the replies will be really fast except attorney delay.

[tanu_75]

Thanks Kanmani, I remember your earlier post.

So your thought is these RFE cases will stay in demand and visa office will allocate visa when PD gets current as the case is pre-adjudicated. USCIS will wait until the end of response time which is 87 days( somewhere close to Sep mid)/ RFE response. if RFE response is satisfactory GC will be issued. Sounds logical to me, and the timing of mid Sep also is molding really well. I hope that is the case. As majority of the cases are EVL, the replies will be really fast except attorney delay.

Is it still the case that more RFE's are originating from TSC than from NSC. Or has NSC started issuing considerable amount of RFE's too. Combined with a significant move in PD's, this asymmetry in service center RFE's could potentially cause problems with later NSC PD's getting approved and earlier PD TSC RFE'ed folks not getting approved.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey Guru's

Does anyone have a historical data of FB Spillovers to EB Category - atleast in the last few years?

I want to know if the 18K we received this year - was exorbitantly big # or if its the closest vicinity in the past?

thanks

[NOV2007]

Gurus,

On mygcvisa blog they have predicted dates can move upto 08SEP2007 for EB2 India in August2013 VB. Is this going to be true?
In that case people after 08SEP2007 PD will have just a month time to file their I-485 i.e. in SEP2013VB. Am filing for the first time, and I need to plan to bring my spouse when the PD date is near, it looks like I need to wait till 10th July to determine when I need to book flight for my spouse. If my NOV2007 PD becomes current when AUG2013 VB is released around Jul10th, then I might find it difficult to book flight in short time avalilable and I need to plan for Medicals too.
Spec/Q, can you pls analyze how much SO can be applied for AUG2013VB and upto which date COD can progress?
Indiani/DEC2007 - folks are very aggressively posting and talking about their RFE's in another thread which Q created this morning. I hope they see this my post and see what they comment out.
Thanks in advance for your quick turnaround on my this post.

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/august-2013-visa-bulletin-predictions.html




Is it still the case that more RFE's are originating from TSC than from NSC. Or has NSC started issuing considerable amount of RFE's too. Combined with a significant move in PD's, this asymmetry in service center RFE's could potentially cause problems with later NSC PD's getting approved and earlier PD TSC RFE'ed folks not getting approved.

[indiani]

Gurus,

On mygcvisa blog they have predicted dates can move upto 08SEP2007 for EB2 India in August2013 VB. Is this going to be true?
In that case people after 08SEP2007 PD will have just a month time to file their I-485 i.e. in SEP2013VB. Am filing for the first time, and I need to plan to bring my spouse when the PD date is near, it looks like I need to wait till 10th July to determine when I need to book flight for my spouse. If my NOV2007 PD becomes current when AUG2013 VB is released around Jul10th, then I might find it difficult to book flight in short time avalilable and I need to plan for Medicals too.
Spec/Q, can you pls analyze how much SO can be applied for AUG2013VB and upto which date COD can progress?
Indiani/DEC2007 - folks are very aggressively posting and talking about their RFE's in another thread which Q created this morning. I hope they see this my post and see what they comment out.
Thanks in advance for your quick turnaround on my this post.

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/august-2013-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

Just like you said that is just another blog, there is no way for anyone to exactly predict the COD in august bulletin.
The only day yow know with 100% certainity is the date bulletin is released, even at AILA whatever CO says he can always make slight adjustments ( but AILA conference is the only time we will have any more reliable info ).

Until then what everyone believes is aug/ sept COD will land somewhere in feb 2008.

even though i consider spec to be the best guy next to CO in predicting things , he has his limitations in the data available to him and moreover he cannot "develop strategy " , CO has to do it.

I can understand your anxiety and I am even more anxious than you are but this is my 2 cents.

[indiani]

Thanks Kanmani, I remember your earlier post.

So your thought is these RFE cases will stay in demand and visa office will allocate visa when PD gets current as the case is pre-adjudicated. USCIS will wait until the end of response time which is 87 days( somewhere close to Sep mid)/ RFE response. if RFE response is satisfactory GC will be issued. Sounds logical to me, and the timing of mid Sep also is molding really well. I hope that is the case. As majority of the cases are EVL, the replies will be really fast except attorney delay.

I am not sure what you mean by attorney delay, assuming all RFE's asking the same which is EVL, EAD etc., if the employer is willing to sign EVL we can respond the RFE on our own, correct me if I am wrong.

I think kanmani is spot on and now I think I can see the positive side of all the RFes .
Now IO don't have to ask RFE in the last moment in august/sept., everything will be sorted out and hopefully will ready to send out cards beginning aug 1st.

[indiani]

So what is the final SO count that we have somewhat agreed upon.

8-18K are the extreme range right?

mid point 13K, Should clear all application up to March 15 2008 if FIFO.

10K will take to Feb 2008, which CO described as best case scenario ( atleast thats the way i understood)

[qesehmk]

Nov2007,

There are many copycat blogs who try to do what we try to do here and we certainly wish them the best. Personally I would not read too much into such predictions on other sites - for the simple reason that they lack original content, rigor, open and collaborative analysis.

I am yet to see any other blog that has a collective open and transparent way of predictions/analysis as this blog has. And most of these blogs follow us - not the other way round.


Gurus,

On mygcvisa blog they have predicted dates can move upto 08SEP2007 for EB2 India in August2013 VB. Is this going to be true?
In that case people after 08SEP2007 PD will have just a month time to file their I-485 i.e. in SEP2013VB. Am filing for the first time, and I need to plan to bring my spouse when the PD date is near, it looks like I need to wait till 10th July to determine when I need to book flight for my spouse. If my NOV2007 PD becomes current when AUG2013 VB is released around Jul10th, then I might find it difficult to book flight in short time avalilable and I need to plan for Medicals too.
Spec/Q, can you pls analyze how much SO can be applied for AUG2013VB and upto which date COD can progress?
Indiani/DEC2007 - folks are very aggressively posting and talking about their RFE's in another thread which Q created this morning. I hope they see this my post and see what they comment out.
Thanks in advance for your quick turnaround on my this post.

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/august-2013-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

[MATT2012]

I am not sure what you mean by attorney delay, assuming all RFE's asking the same which is EVL, EAD etc., if the employer is willing to sign EVL we can respond the RFE on our own, correct me if I am wrong.

I think kanmani is spot on and now I think I can see the positive side of all the RFes .
Now IO don't have to ask RFE in the last moment in august/sept., everything will be sorted out and hopefully will ready to send out cards beginning aug 1st.

Many employers will not let the individuals respond directly other than through the corporate immigration attorney. But as you said some will be comfortable in responding to EVL RFE directly without an attorney.

I also think Kanmani is correct and the approach helps with the fairness of the process.

Spec/Viz: Any thoughts on visa allocation while pending RFE response?

[Spectator]

Hey Guru's

Does anyone have a historical data of FB Spillovers to EB Category - atleast in the last few years?

I want to know if the 18K we received this year - was exorbitantly big # or if its the closest vicinity in the past?

thanksSeekingGC2013,

FY2013 -- 18,000 or thereabouts
FY2012 --- 4,951
FY2011 ------- 0
FY2010 -- 10,657
FY2009 ------- 0
FY2008 -- 22,704

[Niksammy]

Advance Parole - Class of Admission

Gurus,

I need to renew my Advance Parole document and I have a question regarding 'Class of Admission' on form I-131.

I last entered USA in April 2010 on a H1 B visa. My H1 B visa expired in Aug 2011 and since then, I have been working on EAD based on my pending I-485 (AOS).

My question is, what information should I enter in question number 3 on Form i-131(Class of Action) :
- The status on which I entered US last time (which would be H1-B)
- Current status (which is AoS)

Appreciate any help in this regard.

PS: I had asked this question in Advanced Parole forum 2 days ago, but since not as many people visit that section of the blog, I decided to post it here. Please feel free to remove it.

[wheeler234]

Gurus, my PD is Feb-5th 2008, Any thoughts on PD for Aug/Sep VB? I missed the boat last time and I am very anxious if the PD in Aug/Sep will cross this date.

[vizcard]

Many employers will not let the individuals respond directly other than through the corporate immigration attorney. But as you said some will be comfortable in responding to EVL RFE directly without an attorney.

I also think Kanmani is correct and the approach helps with the fairness of the process.

Spec/Viz: Any thoughts on visa allocation while pending RFE response?

I think the way Kanmani portrays it is possibly the most likely scenario. As I pointed out in a previous post, there is a risk of wastage though. Blocking visas in the hope that RFEs are processed in time is a leap of faith. Giving the timing, the "unblocking" of visas would be after the Oct VB is released which is the next fiscal year. There are two viable scenarios
1. there is enough demand even without RFEs to consume any "unblocked" visas (the more likely scenario)
2. there is enough CP demand to consume these "unblocked" visas

Ofcourse, if a person is current, doesn't have a RFE and doesn't get a GC will be mighty pissed and I can see grounds for a lawsuit there. God knows I would probably do it or yell at my Senator.

[indiani]

Gurus, my PD is Feb-5th 2008, Any thoughts on PD for Aug/Sep VB? I missed the boat last time and I am very anxious if the PD in Aug/Sep will cross this date.

99% your PD will be current

[indiani]

I think the way Kanmani portrays it is possibly the most likely scenario. As I pointed out in a previous post, there is a risk of wastage though. Blocking visas in the hope that RFEs are processed in time is a leap of faith. Giving the timing, the "unblocking" of visas would be after the Oct VB is released which is the next fiscal year. There are two viable scenarios
1. there is enough demand even without RFEs to consume any "unblocked" visas (the more likely scenario)
2. there is enough CP demand to consume these "unblocked" visas

Ofcourse, if a person is current, doesn't have a RFE and doesn't get a GC will be mighty pissed and I can see grounds for a lawsuit there. God knows I would probably do it or yell at my Senator.

Suing is not something we usually resort to for the fear of re-purscussions, as the burden of proof is on us to "prove beyond reasonable doubt" that we are eligible and we do not have the "RIGHT " for GC, it is just a privilege.
senator's or congressman's office is best bet when we need help.

I am planning to send RFE today or tomorrow to lawyer and they will overnight fedex to uscis ( Its dallas address ).

so I hope atleast mine should be ready to go when the dates move in august / sept.

[MATT2012]

I think the way Kanmani portrays it is possibly the most likely scenario. As I pointed out in a previous post, there is a risk of wastage though. Blocking visas in the hope that RFEs are processed in time is a leap of faith. Giving the timing, the "unblocking" of visas would be after the Oct VB is released which is the next fiscal year. There are two viable scenarios
1. there is enough demand even without RFEs to consume any "unblocked" visas (the more likely scenario)
2. there is enough CP demand to consume these "unblocked" visas

Ofcourse, if a person is current, doesn't have a RFE and doesn't get a GC will be mighty pissed and I can see grounds for a lawsuit there. God knows I would probably do it or yell at my Senator.

Thanks Viz, I do think Kanmani's view point is fair and most probable scenario but was not sure about the legality of it, just because the RFEs happened before VB is compiled. I think between the agencies, they would have figured a way to manage the same.

Regarding the demand until the cutoff date movement- The law firm guessing of PD movement until August 2008 according to me is a stretch, and was not sure how porting cases are accounted in the scenario. I am hoping CO is not too aggressive where by leaving some cases un-approved where PD is current. Though, I would love to see movement surpassing our most optimistic scenarios, if visas are available.

[erikbond101]

Q,
You are 100% right. When these guys started the blog in September it was all wild prediction and copy/paste from different website including USCIS/DHS. Now they understand a bit and writing like a law firm that COD will be Sept 8 2007" . My own assumption says that they come to Q's website and then write the article. They do not have any original analysis.
It causes anguish to me that they are playing with people sentiments.


Nov2007,

There are many copycat blogs who try to do what we try to do here and we certainly wish them the best. Personally I would not read too much into such predictions on other sites - for the simple reason that they lack original content, rigor, open and collaborative analysis.

I am yet to see any other blog that has a collective open and transparent way of predictions/analysis as this blog has. And most of these blogs follow us - not the other way round.

[Spectator]

If the dates are going to move "best case" to Feb 2008 then why issue RFE's for any date beyond Feb 2008. Is it random or is there any logic behind it?There are very few cases beyond March 2008 that have received a RFE, judging by the information available.

If I were USCIS, I would build in a small contingency as well in case DOS moved the dates a little more. March only represents about 1.3k extra cases.

[desitiger]

There are very few cases beyond March 2008 that have received a RFE, judging by the information available.

If I were USCIS, I would build in a small contingency as well in case DOS moved the dates a little more. March only represents about 1.3k extra cases.


Not sure what the breakdown is between pre-March 2008 and March+Post March 2008 cases that have received RFE. The sample set that is available to us is from trackitt or this forum, which may or may not be right representation of the complete set. I am not trying to argue for the dates to move beyond March, I would love if they go beyond march but I am just trying to understand the logic that why would someone issue an RFE beyond x date when you know that x is the max you can go to. I understand x+1 move to build up some buffer in case all RFE's dont get a response but dont understand why would you do x+10. This gives me two indications:
1) The automated system that is or was generating the RFEs was not given a End date and was only given some other parameters/conditions.
2) There is something missing that we dont understand.

[Spectator]

Not sure what the breakdown is between pre-March 2008 and March+Post March 2008 cases that have received RFE. The sample set that is available to us is from trackitt or this forum, which may or may not be right representation of the complete set. I am not trying to argue for the dates to move beyond March, I would love if they go beyond march but I am just trying to understand the logic that why would someone issue an RFE beyond x date when you know that x is the max you can go to. I understand x+1 move to build up some buffer in case all RFE's dont get a response but dont understand why would you do x+10. This gives me two indications:
1) The automated system that is or was generating the RFEs was not given a End date and was only given some other parameters/conditions.
2) There is something missing that we dont understand.desitiger,

I would agree that there will always have to be a doubt about the data set, but it is the best we have at present.

That said, out of the 192 cases I have with a PD of Jan 2007 or later, only 5 have a PD later than March 2008. That may be just noise, or a normal RFE issuance level.

It suggests that, at present, USCIS do not feel the need to prepare for large numbers of cases beyond a PD of March 2008 and is consistent with what CO has said to date (unfortunately).

[qesehmk]

Agree Spec and that I would imagine be an excellent indicator of where the dates are going to settle. I am afraid that; given the buffer that USCIS needs to account for denials and delays corresponding to RFEs; Mar 2008 in reality could mean sustainable level of date movement could be even more conservative than what we are thinking. But of course the unsustainable movement could still be beyond Mar 2008.
desitiger,

I would agree that there will always have to be a doubt about the data set, but it is the best we have at present.

That said, out of the 192 cases I have with a PD of Jan 2007 or later, only 5 have a PD later than March 2008. That may be just noise, or a normal RFE issuance level.

It suggests that, at present, USCIS do not feel the need to prepare for large numbers of cases beyond a PD of March 2008 and is consistent with what CO has said to date (unfortunately).

[desitiger]

desitiger,

I would agree that there will always have to be a doubt about the data set, but it is the best we have at present.

That said, out of the 192 cases I have with a PD of Jan 2007 or later, only 5 have a PD later than March 2008. That may be just noise, or a normal RFE issuance level.

It suggests that, at present, USCIS do not feel the need to prepare for large numbers of cases beyond a PD of March 2008 and is consistent with what CO has said to date (unfortunately).

Thanks for breaking my heart. I am just kidding :)

[anx80_]

Mar 2008 in reality could mean sustainable level of date movement could be even more conservative than what we are thinking. But of course the unsustainable movement could still be beyond Mar 2008.

Could you please clarify what you mean by this?