EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[geeaarpee]

Just to add to Spec's point on uncertanity, Trackitt figures show 20% drop in approvals for EB1. As Spec/Q pointed out it too good to be true. But for the sake of discussion I could make an argument favoring a similar level of drop. There is a 17% drop in pending inventory when we compare Jan 2012 EB1 inventory to Jan 2013. if those drops continue in the next inventory, the numbers could change a little more favourable toward EB2I. On the other hand, it could also mean that too many EB1 cases are getting approved.
Currently the range of EB1 consumption varies from 32K to 40K, depending upon how we look at the data. 36K being the mid point. At this point I am hoping that the upcoming inventory will give us some more clarity.

Matt,

One quick question - What do you want to see in the next 485 inventory and what you don't want to see?

Lately, I have been feeling very pessimistic on the date movements and just trying to stay positive by talking to few optimistic folks around like you...

[sbhagwat2000]

One more post in trackitt abt lawyer having meeting with CO and CO indicating very little movement in EB2I.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1233659079/july-2013-prediciton/page/last_page

surprising is CO is saying EB2WW may retrogress. This is crazy. Why dont they just speak officially.

[MATT2012]

Matt,

One quick question - What do you want to see in the next 485 inventory and what you don't want to see?

Lately, I have been feeling very pessimistic on the date movements and just trying to stay positive by talking to few optimistic folks around like you...

I look at inventory for drops/increases in each category, especially EB1 and EB2ROW.
I understand June bulletin did spread some new pessimism around EB2I.
As 'Q' pointed out in one of his earlier replies, all that we are trying to do is, make the best judgement from the limited set of information. Most of us also try our best to explain why we think one way or other. Let us hope for the best.
Matt

[ChampU]

One more post in trackitt abt lawyer having meeting with CO and CO indicating very little movement in EB2I.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1233659079/july-2013-prediciton/page/last_page

surprising is CO is saying EB2WW may retrogress. This is crazy. Why dont they just speak officially.

CO had to retrogress EB2 across the board, last year,because of over-allocation of visas to EB2-IC too early and then he was blitzed by the surge in EB1 demand.. When forced with a choice to put a COD on EB1 or EB2, he made the obvious choice to push dates back for EB2-WW

IF EB2WW uses all its allocation, the visas from FB will be diverted towards EB2WW in attempts to keep it current.. For EB2WW to retrogress, the demand will have to be > 45k.. The current trends do not show as much demand.. The only factor that might push it over the threshold is if porting happens at a rapid rate from EB3 to EB2(ww).. If that happens, EB2I is screwed royally and we wont even see dates moving into 2007..the chances of this happening and therefore EB2-WW retrogressing are very very low.. Absolute worst case scenario..

June Bulletin put a damper on EB2-I expectations.. But frankly, most of us had sort of expected this.. He is moving dates very cautiously. Since the announcement of 18k visas came in Feb and yet the SO is not applied yet,it is evident that his intention is two pronged - to clear the pre-adjudicated numbers from the inventory and to add new/porting cases to replenish the inventory... I feel for the next couple of years, the movements will follow the pattern similar to 2008-2010.. 3 steps forward(clearing pre-adjudicated inventory) and 1 step back(new cases added because of porting).

[indiani]

CO had to retrogress EB2 across the board, last year,because of over-allocation of visas to EB2-IC too early and then he was blitzed by the surge in EB1 demand.. When forced with a choice to put a COD on EB1 or EB2, he made the obvious choice to push dates back for EB2-WW

IF EB2WW uses all its allocation, the visas from FB will be diverted towards EB2WW in attempts to keep it current.. For EB2WW to retrogress, the demand will have to be > 45k.. The current trends do not show as much demand.. The only factor that might push it over the threshold is if porting happens at a rapid rate from EB3 to EB2(ww).. If that happens, EB2I is screwed royally and we wont even see dates moving into 2007..the chances of this happening and therefore EB2-WW retrogressing are very very low.. Absolute worst case scenario..

June Bulletin put a damper on EB2-I expectations.. But frankly, most of us had sort of expected this.. He is moving dates very cautiously. Since the announcement of 18k visas came in Feb and yet the SO is not applied yet,it is evident that his intention is two pronged - to clear the pre-adjudicated numbers from the inventory and to add new/porting cases to replenish the inventory... I feel for the next couple of years, the movements will follow the pattern similar to 2008-2010.. 3 steps forward(clearing pre-adjudicated inventory) and 1 step back(new cases added because of porting).


I doubt the EB2WW will consume any additional spillover than what is already allocated to them from FB, but the data is fluid, allocations complicated and at the end of the end no accountability. so with Nov 2007 PD, I have just bare minimum hopes that this fiscal year that it will be current. the US immigration system is one of the most nonsensical system, I think even with best intentions of CO it might be chaotic when its only 2-3 months to make the moves. If there is no movement by august bulletin , I will just change my job on EAD and forget about the GC.

[Kanmani]

One more post in trackitt abt lawyer having meeting with CO and CO indicating very little movement in EB2I.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1233659079/july-2013-prediciton/page/last_page

surprising is CO is saying EB2WW may retrogress. This is crazy. Why dont they just speak officially.

The member who posted this has already got his GC under EB1B category. Very Strange to see these kind of exchange of PD movement discussions .

Whatever it is, very hard to digest these speculations and uncertainty!

[geeaarpee]

One more post in trackitt abt lawyer having meeting with CO and CO indicating very little movement in EB2I.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1233659079/july-2013-prediciton/page/last_page

surprising is CO is saying EB2WW may retrogress. This is crazy. Why dont they just speak officially.

This is the worst case scenario I could think of...

Dates wont move in July (or just few weeks with regular Eb2I quota, not from FB or EB SO) becos CO has not figured out the SOFAD yet and he thinks its still too early in the fiscal.

My guess is dates move only in Sep, I would even bet it will be current for all EB2 categories and even some EB3 categories (except India) - causing random approvals and possible wastage.

From COs perspective, date movements always seems only to generate demand (so that he can save his...) and if thats the case what I said seems to be logical...




Here is explanation of the logic:

If CO thinks that there is going to be more usage in EB1 and EB2WW in the next couple of months and if he is not 100% sure about what the SOFAD would be (the way he has been cautious all this year, there is no way he will be 100% sure of the SOFAD even for Sep) - he will NOT move the dates in Jul/Aug and he may end up with around 43k SOFAD (25k EB + 18K FB) and he has to add a buffer of around 20% to it for cases that would be RFE'd, duplicates, abandoned, etc and he may end up with a 50k SOFAD to be allocated in one last month of the Fiscal. So he has no option other than to make every EB2 category current (becos as of now there is only 48k EB2 total demand) and he has to move EB3 dates for most of the chargeability areas where he is not sure of what the demand would be (for some chargeabilities he may have to make it current).

A SOFAD of 50k is highly unlikely as none of the experts predicted that much but it is not impossible either (with FB SO and the downside of CO being cautious all these months, I would even say it is possible).

Also this would be possible, only if CO truly thinks that he should not waste any of the visas. For any reason, if he thinks that CIR would be out in some form or another next year and he can recapture all the unused EB visas from the previous years, then he will not move the dates at all, even in Sep.





I know it is pessimism to the extreme!!!

[vizcard]

This is the worst case scenario I could think of...

Dates wont move in July (or just few weeks with regular Eb2I quota, not from FB or EB SO) becos CO has not figured out the SOFAD yet and he thinks its still too early in the fiscal.

My guess is dates move only in Sep, I would even bet it will be current for all EB2 categories and even some EB3 categories (except India) - causing random approvals and possible wastage.

From COs perspective, date movements always seems only to generate demand (so that he can save his...) and if thats the case what I said seems to be logical...




Here is explanation of the logic:

If CO thinks that there is going to be more usage in EB1 and EB2WW in the next couple of months and if he is not 100% sure about what the SOFAD would be (the way he has been cautious all this year, there is no way he will be 100% sure of the SOFAD even for Sep) - he will NOT move the dates in Jul/Aug and he may end up with around 43k SOFAD (25k EB + 18K FB) and he has to add a buffer of around 20% to it for cases that would be RFE'd, duplicates, abandoned, etc and he may end up with a 50k SOFAD to be allocated in one last month of the Fiscal. So he has no option other than to make every EB2 category current (becos as of now there is only 48k EB2 total demand) and he has to move EB3 dates for most of the chargeability areas where he is not sure of what the demand would be (for some chargeabilities he may have to make it current).

A SOFAD of 50k is highly unlikely as none of the experts predicted that much but it is not impossible either (with FB SO and the downside of CO being cautious all these months, I would even say it is possible).

Also this would be possible, only if CO truly thinks that he should not waste any of the visas. For any reason, if he thinks that CIR would be out in some form or another next year and he can recapture all the unused EB visas from the previous years, then he will not move the dates at all, even in Sep.





I know it is pessimism to the extreme!!!

I really doubt this would happen. It would be a slap in the face for the 2007 folks. I personally don't care about what happens to the porters (no offense) but the legit EB2 folks might get screwed with random approvals.

Based on past history, CO generally has a sense of SOFAD by Q4. I think he will move the dates in the July VB and definitely in the Aug VB. These moves will be to clear out 2007 and before demand (incl any new porters). He will definitely have enough SOFAD to clear out 2007 unless something totally crazy is going on behind the scenes (we should know more about this when the inventory report comes out).

He would then move the dates in the Sept VB to accomodate 2008 PDs if there are visas left. In the Sept VB, I can see him moving it to Q2 - Q3 2008 and letting the chips fall to make sure that no visas get wasted.

[honesdirec]

One more post in trackitt abt lawyer having meeting with CO and CO indicating very little movement in EB2I.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1233659079/july-2013-prediciton/page/last_page

surprising is CO is saying EB2WW may retrogress. This is crazy. Why dont they just speak officially.


Someone posted the link to Ware Gasparian law firm on trackitt.

http://david-ware.com/immigration-information/breaking-news/june-visa-bulletin-shows-significant-advances-0

Law firm has posted that they met CO. It says "not to expect advances in the India EB 2 until very close to the end of the fiscal year, and then only a few weeks."

I am hoping that its not true, but at the same time I am debating why would a law firm post something on their website if the information was not valid.

[indiani]

Someone posted the link to Ware Gasparian law firm on trackitt.

http://david-ware.com/immigration-information/breaking-news/june-visa-bulletin-shows-significant-advances-0

Law firm has posted that they met CO. It says "not to expect advances in the India EB 2 until very close to the end of the fiscal year, and then only a few weeks."

I am hoping that its not true, but at the same time I am debating why would a law firm post something on their website if the information was not valid.

This is scary news and this is the reason why it worries me:
1. The law firm is not going to make up stuff especially with pessimistic news.
2. The CO obviously is aware of the FB spillover by that time.
3. There is nothing in the june bulletin which mentioned any significant advances.
But what doesnt make any sense at all is that even a 2K spillover should advance several months and how can CO be so pessimistic to indicate only few weeks of movement.

[sbhagwat2000]

This is scary news and this is the reason why it worries me:
1. The law firm is not going to make up stuff especially with pessimistic news.
2. The CO obviously is aware of the FB spillover by that time.
3. There is nothing in the june bulletin which mentioned any significant advances.
But what doesnt make any sense at all is that even a 2K spillover should advance several months and how can CO be so pessimistic to indicate only few weeks of movement.

I was the one who posted it and believe pls don't believe this guy. First it's diff to believe that no lawyer was invited but ware. Co always has meetings with a Grp not individuals. I would treat it as CO saying just formally and giving the typical reply

[helooo]

I was the one who posted it and believe pls don't believe this guy. First it's diff to believe that no lawyer was invited but ware. Co always has meetings with a Grp not individuals. I would treat it as CO saying just formally and giving the typical reply

I spoke to my lawyer and asked him about all rumors,he said EB2I dates will move from next month onwards.He said this is what he thinks after June VB.So hope for the best.

[bvsamrat]

I also think this would happen. The main reasons are

a) Same was happening all the previous years
b) CO does not have to think or assume things. But will have to act at the time when it comes. He would not have to loose sleep if Visa numbers are lost or gained or borrowed from next year.

c) Hence best bet for him would be to sit tight till the time things are clear and make dates leap to 2-3 years by July/August and 3-5 years by August/ September.

d) Repeat the same for next year. If EB2 WW gets retrogress for 1 or months at the year end. let it be?

Another random thought.



This is the worst case scenario I could think of...

Dates wont move in July (or just few weeks with regular Eb2I quota, not from FB or EB SO) becos CO has not figured out the SOFAD yet and he thinks its still too early in the fiscal.

My guess is dates move only in Sep, I would even bet it will be current for all EB2 categories and even some EB3 categories (except India) - causing random approvals and possible wastage.

From COs perspective, date movements always seems only to generate demand (so that he can save his...) and if thats the case what I said seems to be logical...




Here is explanation of the logic:

If CO thinks that there is going to be more usage in EB1 and EB2WW in the next couple of months and if he is not 100% sure about what the SOFAD would be (the way he has been cautious all this year, there is no way he will be 100% sure of the SOFAD even for Sep) - he will NOT move the dates in Jul/Aug and he may end up with around 43k SOFAD (25k EB + 18K FB) and he has to add a buffer of around 20% to it for cases that would be RFE'd, duplicates, abandoned, etc and he may end up with a 50k SOFAD to be allocated in one last month of the Fiscal. So he has no option other than to make every EB2 category current (becos as of now there is only 48k EB2 total demand) and he has to move EB3 dates for most of the chargeability areas where he is not sure of what the demand would be (for some chargeabilities he may have to make it current).

A SOFAD of 50k is highly unlikely as none of the experts predicted that much but it is not impossible either (with FB SO and the downside of CO being cautious all these months, I would even say it is possible).

Also this would be possible, only if CO truly thinks that he should not waste any of the visas. For any reason, if he thinks that CIR would be out in some form or another next year and he can recapture all the unused EB visas from the previous years, then he will not move the dates at all, even in Sep.





I know it is pessimism to the extreme!!!

[sreddy]

I also think this would happen. The main reasons are

b) CO does not have to think or assume things. But will have to act at the time when it comes. He would not have to loose sleep if Visa numbers are lost or gained or borrowed from next year.

Another random thought.

You said "Borrowed from next year", Is it a random comment or did you see any indications of that happening in the past, especially in 2012?

[vizcard]

You said "Borrowed from next year", Is it a random comment or did you see any indications of that happening in the past, especially in 2012?

I have never seen that happen.

Also, I don't think bvsamrats prediction as a plausible scenario. I don't see any chance that he will move 4-5 yrs after moving to 2007-mid 2008. Remember there is demand to last 2 whole yrs and probably then some (~50k). He doesn't need to build inventory this FY.

He will move dates (beyond March 2010) in the summer of 2014 (without CIR) or make them current (with CIR).

[druvraj]

Hi,

I just wrote to my lawyer Murthy for a possible information on the EB2I scenario. They told me no information on EB2I was received from USICS/CO. I do not know if this is just CYA or they genuinely have no information on the EB2I movement.

[dec2007]

Hi,

I just wrote to my lawyer Murthy for a possible information on the EB2I scenario. They told me no information on EB2I was received from USICS/CO. I do not know if this is just CYA or they genuinely have no information on the EB2I movement.

I think we all should take it easy and wait for next bulletin.. I know it is not easy to wait, but we do not have much control...Q, Spec, MATT etc have predicted by squeezing the numbers as much as they can.
I'm on waiting mode too..Any information by law firms will only add more panic or unnecessary euphoria..but in the end,,July Bulletin will be the Real "Reality" and we need to accept it.

[geeaarpee]

Fact that EB3 china has advanced more than its EB2 counterpart might also indicate upcoming EB2 I/C movement that will overshoot the EB3 China's cut off date. There is definitely no incentive for eb3c to port... not sure if it was a calculated effort to get it to this state but if that's approach CO is taking then .........like Nat says, it's possible that dates may advance rapidly in a short burst rather than over a couple of months.

It has happened for EB2I too in the past. Check the VBs in early 2008s. But I think, the SOFAD was SOFDA at that time.

[geeaarpee]

I really doubt this would happen. It would be a slap in the face for the 2007 folks. I personally don't care about what happens to the porters (no offense) but the legit EB2 folks might get screwed with random approvals.

Based on past history, CO generally has a sense of SOFAD by Q4. I think he will move the dates in the July VB and definitely in the Aug VB. These moves will be to clear out 2007 and before demand (incl any new porters). He will definitely have enough SOFAD to clear out 2007 unless something totally crazy is going on behind the scenes (we should know more about this when the inventory report comes out).

He would then move the dates in the Sept VB to accomodate 2008 PDs if there are visas left. In the Sept VB, I can see him moving it to Q2 - Q3 2008 and letting the chips fall to make sure that no visas get wasted.

I agree with you Viz - but CO ain't smart either!

[geeaarpee]

Just to add to Spec's point on uncertanity, Trackitt figures show 20% drop in approvals for EB1. As Spec/Q pointed out it too good to be true. But for the sake of discussion I could make an argument favoring a similar level of drop. There is a 17% drop in pending inventory when we compare Jan 2012 EB1 inventory to Jan 2013. if those drops continue in the next inventory, the numbers could change a little more favourable toward EB2I. On the other hand, it could also mean that too many EB1 cases are getting approved.
Currently the range of EB1 consumption varies from 32K to 40K, depending upon how we look at the data. 36K being the mid point. At this point I am hoping that the upcoming inventory will give us some more clarity.

Matt - Can this be due to the quick 485 processing happening and people (especially EB1 folks) don't even have time to update their cases in Trackitt.

When it comes to EB1 (EB1C in particular), I have seen cases who just landed in US here and before even they can figure out which is the best school district around for their kids, they had got their GC in hand. So with their busy work schedule (LOL!) and the limited time they have to spend in Zillow and other sites to buy home/Land, I don't think they might have had time to update their cases in Trackitt - for that matter, not many EB1C knows Trackitt either, forget about Q's Blog (no offense here, just a funny note!)

[MATT2012]

Matt - Can this be due to the quick 485 processing happening and people (especially EB1 folks) don't even have time to update their cases in Trackitt.

When it comes to EB1 (EB1C in particular), I have seen cases who just landed in US here and before even they can figure out which is the best school district around for their kids, they had got their GC in hand. So with their busy work schedule (LOL!) and the limited time they have to spend in Zillow and other sites to buy home/Land, I don't think they might have had time to update their cases in Trackitt - for that matter, not many EB1C knows Trackitt either, forget about Q's Blog (no offense here, just a funny note!)

Trackitt generally have only EB1 Indian cases, the other cases are very few. So using just trackitt for EB1 will not help us. The number of Indian cases also may have come down in trackitt due to general negative sentiments around misuse of EB1C. just my opinion. A 20% drop is very difficult to believe. I personally think it is around 7% drop. But at the same time I dont want to totally ignore trackitt trends, especially because this is the first proper year after Karzarian.

[NOV2007]

Hi All Guru's,

I see mixed predictions here some people saying PD will not move to early 2008 this year. And Some saying it will be reaching early 2008. In the first page "Q" still says it is going to be between Mar-Apr2008. Do we really need to wait untill JulyVB is out onto determine which one is correct? Or Can I go with Q/Spec/Matt/Viz prediction saying it will reach early 2008. Am undergoing lot of stress in my current work environment, but still am just taking this pain from past 1 year by just looking at you guys prediction and analysis. Incase if dates not going to move then better I can change my job. Pls help me guru's with your suggestion. I have PD of NOV2007.


Trackitt generally have only EB1 Indian cases, the other cases are very few. So using just trackitt for EB1 will not help us. The number of Indian cases also may have come down in trackitt due to general negative sentiments around misuse of EB1C. just my opinion. A 20% drop is very difficult to believe. I personally think it is around 7% drop. But at the same time I dont want to totally ignore trackitt trends, especially because this is the first proper year after Karzarian.

[vizcard]

Hi All Guru's,

I see mixed predictions here some people saying PD will not move to early 2008 this year. And Some saying it will be reaching early 2008. In the first page "Q" still says it is going to be between Mar-Apr2008. Do we really need to wait untill JulyVB is out onto determine which one is correct? Or Can I go with Q/Spec/Matt/Viz prediction saying it will reach early 2008. Am undergoing lot of stress in my current work environment, but still am just taking this pain from past 1 year by just looking at you guys prediction and analysis. Incase if dates not going to move then better I can change my job. Pls help me guru's with your suggestion. I have PD of NOV2007.

I know its a difficult decision but if possible, I'd hold off making career decisions until the Sept VB (released in August) at the latest. My personal belief is that you will be current by the Aug VB. It should not stop you from exploring options even now and letting prospective employers that will not be able to join until Oct 1. Some companies might not want to wait but others might.

[infoseek]

Hi NOV2007,
I feel the point of the all the analysis and data provided along with these predictions is to enable users to make proper/calculated decisions themselves. It would be unfair to call out to any guru to offer guarantees on something which they cannot control. That being said, and also with the disclaimer that I am not a guru.... I would put the chances of PD reaching your date this FY at good (70 -80%). However, if you already have an ED and a better job I would suggest that you should make the move. Suffering through a stressful job for sake of GC when a good alternative is available, from my point of view, is not worth it. After all one of the big benefits of GC is better opportunity.. and looks like you already have it. By the time you settle down in your job and start getting stressful again :) (just kidding).... the queue would have cleared and your GC would be on its way.



Hi All Guru's,

I see mixed predictions here some people saying PD will not move to early 2008 this year. And Some saying it will be reaching early 2008. In the first page "Q" still says it is going to be between Mar-Apr2008. Do we really need to wait untill JulyVB is out onto determine which one is correct? Or Can I go with Q/Spec/Matt/Viz prediction saying it will reach early 2008. Am undergoing lot of stress in my current work environment, but still am just taking this pain from past 1 year by just looking at you guys prediction and analysis. Incase if dates not going to move then better I can change my job. Pls help me guru's with your suggestion. I have PD of NOV2007.

[Vkkpnm]

Well said Viz and though I understand the frustration by Nov2007, I am fully agree with Viz. I am also in the same boat having PD Dec 2007 without EAD:(. Please don't ask me how did I miss the train :)

[qesehmk]

Nov2007 - this is your year my friend. Relax. You will get your GC by Sep 2013. If you don't - that definitely will mean something seriously wrong with your case and you should seek help from a lawyer - call USCIS and all of that. But don't stress out. Take it easy. There is a movie called "Scent of a Woman" where Al Pacino has a great line - "When in doubt ... eff it". Excuse the language but the message of the character in the movie (a retired disabled Army/Marine Officer) is to live in the moment and not worry too much.

Hi All Guru's,

I see mixed predictions here some people saying PD will not move to early 2008 this year. And Some saying it will be reaching early 2008. In the first page "Q" still says it is going to be between Mar-Apr2008. Do we really need to wait untill JulyVB is out onto determine which one is correct? Or Can I go with Q/Spec/Matt/Viz prediction saying it will reach early 2008. Am undergoing lot of stress in my current work environment, but still am just taking this pain from past 1 year by just looking at you guys prediction and analysis. Incase if dates not going to move then better I can change my job. Pls help me guru's with your suggestion. I have PD of NOV2007.

[Vkkpnm]

So u r also a fan of that movie. I love that movie.

[qesehmk]

It's been almost 12-13 years now since I watched it first but I still love it.
So u r also a fan of that movie. I love that movie.

[Spectator]

It's been almost 12-13 years now since I watched it first but I still love it.Q,

If we are going to talk about movie clips, I think this one (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_PX1cVuaVA&feature=player_embedded#!) from the original The Italian Job with Michael Caine best sums up how CO handled last year!

The remake was a travesty.

[NOV2007]

You guys are just marvellous. Thanks Guru's Qesh/Spec/Viz/Matt/info/vkpp. Your suggestions are really helpful to people like me. I had left the country for good back in 2009 but by then I had my EB2 PD in NOV2007. Then I came back again in 2012 mid H1B sponsered by current employer by then PD was retrogressed to 2004. I have ported my EB2 PD NOV2007 from my old employer to current employer. And now its been 3 months my I140 has been approved with current employer.
Am just following you Guru's educated analysis and calculations since then. I have been handled badly by my manager even after delivering good work to them. And this manager is highly notorious and even outside/inside recruiters are tired finding people for them, and nobody have worked so far beyond 6-8 months(Avg 3 months). Am just sitting calm bearing all trouble to sail through this time. I wish everybody who are in my situation to get their PD current and have good life.
Thanks Qesh for your wonderful service.



Q,

If we are going to talk about movie clips, I think this one (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_PX1cVuaVA&feature=player_embedded#!) from the original The Italian Job with Michael Caine best sums up how CO handled last year!

The remake was a travesty.

[indiani]

I suspect the July bulletin will tell almost everything about the rest of the year's bulletins:
1. I suspect most likely CO might make a safe move of about jan 2007 or august 2007, in that case predictions made by most here might be true.
2. No movement in july means there is a good chance that there will be very little to no movement at all this year.( I do not believe like many here that significant movements can be made starting from august onwards.)
3. lastly I hope that they move to jan 2008 so I can get my GC :)

I have followed the movements for a while now but most of the data ( calculated from trackitt) I base my predcitions are from spec and others here

[gtyagi]

I got an approval today on Labor filed on January 3rd, 2013. With PD of April 2008, should I be pushing for I-140 in premium?

[isantem]

I got an approval today on Labor filed on January 3rd, 2013. With PD of April 2008, should I be pushing for I-140 in premium?

You are the only one that can respond to your question. Do you need EAD in 7 months from now or you can wait until September 2014? Do you really think that somebody can tell you if your date will be current or not? Even if you will be current you will most likely get your greencard next fiscal year end. They are thousand of applications that are already pre approved and those will get visas in the next 3 months. Yours will need 3-6 months processing before gets a visa number.

[gtyagi]

First of all, dude, drop the attitude. My first part of the comment is to make everyone aware that although icert portal is not updated, LD is approving cases filed in January 1st week. Second, depending on current scenarios, if the dates are not going to be current for April 2008, there is no point for me to file for i-140. I guess I will know myself in 2-3 weeks.

[vizcard]

You are the only one that can respond to your question. Do you need EAD in 7 months from now or you can wait until September 2014? Do you really think that somebody can tell you if your date will be current or not? Even if you will be current you will most likely get your greencard next fiscal year end. They are thousand of applications that are already pre approved and those will get visas in the next 3 months. Yours will need 3-6 months processing before gets a visa number.

If you can, I'd recommend a premium processing - that's what I would do.
Best case - you get GC (or atleast EAD), worst case - you spent the premium processing fee.

[isantem]

First of all, dude, drop the attitude ?????????????? Did you had a bad day? Premium processing is 2 weeks if you find out on June 10th that you are current in July you have 8 weeks to get I-140 approved and file I485.
What answer did you want to your question? "Yes go ahead pay premium and you will be current 100%"? I was just trying to explain you that the answer needs to come from you by answering "do I need the EAD in February 2014 or I can wait to get my greencard in September 2014"



I guess I will know myself in 2-3 weeks. You got it.

[Kanmani]

I forgot the exact question but the member was looking for some information on how to get pending/approved I-485 data from USCIS . I could see people are filing under FOIA to get these data ........http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/About%20Us/Electronic%20Reading%20Room/FOIA%20Logs%20-%20Static%20Files/February%202013%20FOIA%20Log.pdf

[Kanmani]

gtyagi, there is a general opinion on trackitt that premium processing is not accepted for porting cases as they need more than 15 days. I am not sure though.

[vizcard]

I forgot the exact question but the member was looking for some information on how to get pending/approved I-485 data from USCIS . I could see people are filing under FOIA to get these data ........http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/About%20Us/Electronic%20Reading%20Room/FOIA%20Logs%20-%20Static%20Files/February%202013%20FOIA%20Log.pdf

I'll bet a lot of these are staffers for CIR.

[immitime]

First of all, dude, drop the attitude. My first part of the comment is to make everyone aware that although icert portal is not updated, LD is approving cases filed in January 1st week. Second, depending on current scenarios, if the dates are not going to be current for April 2008, there is no point for me to file for i-140. I guess I will know myself in 2-3 weeks.

Whether it is porting case or not.. I-140 premium processing is valid as per law.. Not aware of any interim memo like PP for porting cases is not valid. If it is please throw some light on that law.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextchannel=8a2f6d26d17df110VgnVCM1000004718190 aRCRD&vgnextoid=b2d8bde6869af110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCRD

[Spectator]

Whether it is porting case or not.. I-140 premium processing is valid as per law.. Not aware of any interim memo like PP for porting cases is not valid. If it is please throw some light on that law.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextchannel=8a2f6d26d17df110VgnVCM1000004718190 aRCRD&vgnextoid=b2d8bde6869af110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCRD That is a really out of date link. The conditions in it have not been in place for some time to my knowledge. It seems that was superceded effective June 29, 2009.

This (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=971b60657dd68210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=db029c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD) is the latest USCIS PP page.

I don't see anything that would exclude porting cases, unless they do not have the original LC for the EB2 I-140.

[helooo]

First of all, dude, drop the attitude. My first part of the comment is to make everyone aware that although icert portal is not updated, LD is approving cases filed in January 1st week. Second, depending on current scenarios, if the dates are not going to be current for April 2008, there is no point for me to file for i-140. I guess I will know myself in 2-3 weeks.
You can do premium processing.

[qesehmk]

gtyagi - unless you are paying out of pocket - I would definitely recommend getting 140 done without waiting for 485.

If you are paying out of pocket its your choice. But I would've waited.

On another note - sometimes people don't mean we read in those words. I would've just thanked isantem for even taking the trouble to respond to my question.

Anyway .. Cheer up ... Apr 2008 is not too far. Worst case is 14 months from today. But likely Apr 2008 should get through.

[Kanmani]

Ron's comments on PP - EB3->EB2 porting http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/forum/immigrant-issues/i-140-petitions/17204-i140-porting

[seattlet]

Ron's comments on PP - EB3->EB2 porting http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/forum/immigrant-issues/i-140-petitions/17204-i140-porting

I think Ron is totally wrong here.


If you port an EB3 priority date to EB2 I140 priority date using premium processing, USCIS will approve the EB2 140 with a new priority date but mention the old A# number in most cases. (In some cases, they will also port the priority date). However A# capture is sufficient.

After approval of new I140, your lawyer can raise a request with USCIS if the old priority date or A # was not captured ( I think you file it as an USCIS error if you had provided the earlier I140 approval details earlier but USCIS failed to act on it). They will then correct it and
send a new copy of I140 with A# and the old priority date. I got this done couple of months ago.

[gtyagi]

Thanks Viz. I appreciate it.


If you can, I'd recommend a premium processing - that's what I would do.
Best case - you get GC (or atleast EAD), worst case - you spent the premium processing fee.

[gtyagi]

Kanmani, I am just trying to keep the priority date from EB2 to EB2. I changed job and missed the date last time. I am hoping this would be fine for premium processing.

gtyagi, there is a general opinion on trackitt that premium processing is not accepted for porting cases as they need more than 15 days. I am not sure though.

[gtyagi]

Thanks Q. Saw your comment late.


gtyagi - unless you are paying out of pocket - I would definitely recommend getting 140 done without waiting for 485.

If you are paying out of pocket its your choice. But I would've waited.

On another note - sometimes people don't mean we read in those words. I would've just thanked isantem for even taking the trouble to respond to my question.

Anyway .. Cheer up ... Apr 2008 is not too far. Worst case is 14 months from today. But likely Apr 2008 should get through.

[Kanmani]

Did you miss the opening last Jan 2012?

I am not sure and really don't want to mess up too. But I have read several posts over the years, people discussing about this. Good Luck .

[qesehmk]

his labor just cleared ... probably that meant he ported.
Did you miss the opening last Jan 2012?

I am not really sure and really don't want to mess up too. But I have read several posts over the years, people discussing about this. Good Luck .

[Kanmani]

his labor just cleared ... probably that meant he ported.

Q, No. He has changed employer with no I-485 filing in hand. He probably missed the boat.

[qesehmk]

Oh .. i didn't read his last post. He definitely missed the boat. I wonder how that is even possible!!
Q, No. He has changed employer with no I-485 filing in hand. He probably missed the boat.

[gtyagi]

Q, Kanmani

I didnot port from EB3-EB2. Original PD was April 2008. But I had to change job and due to some issues it took more than a year to just file for Labor. The case was started with murthy in November 2011 and they filed for labor in Jan 2013.


his labor just cleared ... probably that meant he ported.

[mailmvr]

Gurus I know this thread is not appropriate on CIR, but little curious. How far are we from CIR. Can Gurus comment on it. Since next month there is a likely change of forward movement in dates if we can also take a stock of CIR implication it would give good perspective to forum readers.

[vizcard]

Gurus I know this thread is not appropriate on CIR, but little curious. How far are we from CIR. Can Gurus comment on it. Since next month there is a likely change of forward movement in dates if we can also take a stock of CIR implication it would give good perspective to forum readers.

I'll answer this one but please post all follow up questions on the Bills thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2033-Discussion-On-Immigration-Reform-(Comprehensive-Or-Otherwise)/)or CIR thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2099-Senate-CIR-Bill-Summary-amp-Discussion).

CIR is still a long way to go. It will most likely pass the Senate in June (before 4th of July). At that point, the House will take over. Given that the House is crafting their own bill, they will go through their process (similar to the Senate) and vote in the House - probably some time in Sept (almost all of August is summer recess). Assuming the House bill passes in the House, there will be offline discussions to find a compromise between the House and Senate bills. Subsequently, the new compromised bill will be voted on in the House and Senate. As you can see there is a lot of procedure, a ton of hurdles and lots of backroom dealings. IF CIR passes at all, it won't be this FY (IMO).

[Spectator]

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

PDF version (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2004-02-2013%20Final.pdf)

[natvyas]

I notice that the EB1 numbers are pretty high compared to last year. However what I dont understand is how come these many applications having been sitting there for so long given that it is EB1 and processing time is 3 to 4 months.

These high numbers scare me as we were hoping to have a large fall down from EB1.

[kd2008]

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

PDF version (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2004-02-2013%20Final.pdf)


Surprisingly light on EB1 and EB2-ROW. Not by much still it may be indicative.

[geeaarpee]

Surprisingly light on EB1 and EB2-ROW. Not by much still it may be indicative.

2007 looks possible!

[kd2008]

Category May2012 Apr2013
EB1 15719 11573
EBROW 11819 10227

From Pending inventory in Apr 2013 and May 2012 (Last year)

Natvyas, your reading is incorrect based on above facts.

[natvyas]

Category May2012 Apr2013
EB1 15719 11573
EBROW 11819 10227

From Pending inventory in Apr 2013 and May 2012 (Last year)

Natvyas, your reading is incorrect based on above facts.

Thankyou for correcting me.

However the fact there are so many cases on inventory (especially from Oct 2012) concerns me. Plus why havent they adjusdicated those cases? Will they eat our lunch (GC) ?

[pdmay2008]

I notice that the EB1 numbers are pretty high compared to last year. However what I dont understand is how come these many applications having been sitting there for so long given that it is EB1 and processing time is 3 to 4 months.

These high numbers scare me as we were hoping to have a large fall down from EB1.

These EB1s may be sitting with RFEs or with some other review. Also this is as of 04/02/2013. They might have processed some of these cases already in these 45 days.

I would say we need to wait for next month bulletin to understand how CO interprets these numbers.

[Kanmani]

I find EB5 processing is at slower pace, one data shows california centre is still processing FY 2012 cases.

Numerous FOIA queries asking for statistics showing how many jobs were created under EB5 programme, USCIS replied that they are not keeping in track of that information.

All Form Types Performance Data pending almost forever might help us understand.

[natvyas]

I compared the numbers between the Jan and Apr Inventory Statistics

For Oct 2012 - In Jan there were 1669 pending cases and Apr there are 976 cases
For Nov 2012 - In Jan there were 1449 pending cases and Apr there are 1090 cases
For Dec 2012 - In Jan there were 1025 pending cases and Apr there are 1255 cases (this can be explained as the Jan report came out too quickly for all cases to be captured)

This tells me that the processing in EB1 is slow.

Any comments on this conclusion?

[Spectator]

Here is the history of EB1 and EB2-WW Inventories and the movements.

EB1

Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 11,573 -- (10.27%)
Jan-13 -- 12,898 --- (7.24%)
Oct-12 -- 13,905 -- (11.54%)
May-12 -- 15,719 ---- 0.87%
Jan-12 -- 15,583 --- 10.74%
Oct-11 -- 14,072 --- 40.89%
May-11 --- 9,988 --- 18.16%
Jan-11 --- 8,453 --- 11.30%
Oct-10 --- 7,595 ---- 2.98%
May-10 --- 7,375 -- 219.68%
Mar-10 --- 2,307 -- (22.27%)
Dec-09 --- 2,968 -- (26.72%)
Sep-09 --- 4,050

EB2-WW

Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 12,052 -- (21.87%)
Jan-13 -- 15,425 --- (6.08%)
Oct-12 -- 16,424 --- 34.44%
May-12 -- 12,217 --- (6.70%)
Jan-12 -- 13,094 --- 18.34%
Oct-11 -- 11,065 ---- 9.10%
May-11 -- 10,142 --- 13.51%
Jan-11 --- 8,935 --- (9.88%)
Oct-10 --- 9,915 --- 46.61%
May-10 --- 6,763 --- 84.93%
Mar-10 --- 3,657 -- (38.54%)
Dec-09 --- 5,950 -- (24.41%)
Sep-09 --- 7,871

The EB2-WW level appears to have returned to something close to the level it was in May 2012. The rise in October 2012 was expected due to retrogression in the preceding months.

[pdmay2008]

The EB2-WW level appears to have returned to something close to the level it was in May 2012. The rise in October 2012 was expected due to retrogression in the preceding months.

This might have been possible due to any of the following :

1. EB2 WW Demand reduced
2. After Oct-12 CO started assigning VISA numbers for all the preadjudicated EB2 WW cases
3. USCIS Processing efficiency improved

I have no question on number 3. We are sure nothing has changed in terms of USCIS processing.

[indiani]

Here is the history of EB1 and EB2-WW Inventories and the movements.

EB1

Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 11,573 -- (10.27%)
Jan-13 -- 12,898 --- (7.24%)
Oct-12 -- 13,905 -- (11.54%)
May-12 -- 15,719 ---- 0.87%
Jan-12 -- 15,583 --- 10.74%
Oct-11 -- 14,072 --- 40.89%
May-11 --- 9,988 --- 18.16%
Jan-11 --- 8,453 --- 11.30%
Oct-10 --- 7,595 ---- 2.98%
May-10 --- 7,375 -- 219.68%
Mar-10 --- 2,307 -- (22.27%)
Dec-09 --- 2,968 -- (26.72%)
Sep-09 --- 4,050

EB2-WW

Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 12,052 -- (21.87%)
Jan-13 -- 15,425 --- (6.08%)
Oct-12 -- 16,424 --- 34.44%
May-12 -- 12,217 --- (6.70%)
Jan-12 -- 13,094 --- 18.34%
Oct-11 -- 11,065 ---- 9.10%
May-11 -- 10,142 --- 13.51%
Jan-11 --- 8,935 --- (9.88%)
Oct-10 --- 9,915 --- 46.61%
May-10 --- 6,763 --- 84.93%
Mar-10 --- 3,657 -- (38.54%)
Dec-09 --- 5,950 -- (24.41%)
Sep-09 --- 7,871

The EB2-WW level appears to have returned to something close to the level it was in May 2012. The rise in October 2012 was expected due to retrogression in the preceding months.

Spec,
based on the latest inventory how much spillover do you expect EB2I will get in the next 3 months, Do you believe it can definitely clear out dec 2007 (mine is in Nov 2007). I have based so many plans based on the timing that knowing the possibility of movements will help me immensely. If the latest predictions are different from april 4th or more refined, can you update your predictions from 1st page as yours are "Gold standard" that almost everyone rely on

[bvsamrat]

Spec

Is it necessary for the CO to release a definite Visa quantity every month? or every quarter

How do we know if he is doing this?

(I do not want to know why should he do this? but can this happen? and how will anyone notice this?)

[seattlet]

Can one of our gurus please explain

how demand data and Inventory are used together in determining demand / cut off. For ex EB2 I has demand of 450 until Jan 1st 2005 per demand data. But per Inventory report released,
until 2005 we have 800 cases pending before Jan 1st 2005.

Thanks

[indiani]

Can one of our gurus please explain

how demand data and Inventory are used together in determining demand / cut off. For ex EB2 I has demand of 450 until Jan 1st 2005 per demand data. But per Inventory report released,
until 2005 we have 800 cases pending before Jan 1st 2005.

Thanks

DD= preadjudicated 485+ CP
inventory= all pending 485
DD is used to determine cut-off dates

[indiani]

Is it necessary for the CO to release a definite Visa quantity every month? or every quarter
every month' exception is spillover

How do we know if he is doing this?
cut off date on bulletin and trackitt data.

we dont have official GC's issued for this fiscal yet

[Spectator]

The law only says that not more than 27% of visas may be used in each of the first 3 quarters - it does not set a minimum number.

CO is also (by law) allowed to use estimates of future visa use when setting the Cut Off Dates. This could lead to a situation where the total expected number of monthly visas are not allocated, in the expectation that they will be needed in the future.

For instance, this year, he surely knows that there will be a period of apparent low Demand for EB3-ROW/C/M, but he also knows that will likely be fulfilled when USCIS adjudicates the newly submitted cases (as long as it is before the end of the FY).

[Spectator]

Spec,
based on the latest inventory how much spillover do you expect EB2I will get in the next 3 months, Do you believe it can definitely clear out dec 2007 (mine is in Nov 2007). I have based so many plans based on the timing that knowing the possibility of movements will help me immensely. If the latest predictions are different from april 4th or more refined, can you update your predictions from 1st page as yours are "Gold standard" that almost everyone rely onindiani,

It's still too early to say.

I want to wait to see what the first movement is in the July VB.

Gut feel says my existing forecast is now a little optimistic and represents a best case scenario. Full disclosure - am using quite an aggressive amount for porting numbers. If that is incorrect, then I will be seen as pessimistic. Don't ask the number - all I will say is that it is bigger than the 4.5k I believe Matt is using, although ultimately it doesn't make such a huge difference.

I would urge no-one to use my guesstimates for any important decisions. The data is too imprecise ( or just completely unavailable) and the error margins are too wide.

[MATT2012]

Hi Spec,

I am also working on the final projection numbers, do feel that 4500 is on the lower side, I am moving it up to 5500-6000. So over all porting this fiscal will be 7000-7500 including the visas issued so far this fiscal.

I have a question for you, any idea of % RFE's for existing pre-adjudicated cases, Is 5% a too high percentage?

Thanks,
Matt

[indiani]

indiani,

It's still too early to say.

I want to wait to see what the first movement is in the July VB.

Gut feel says my existing forecast is now a little optimistic and represents a best case scenario. Full disclosure - am using quite an aggressive amount for porting numbers. If that is incorrect, then I will be seen as pessimistic. Don't ask the number - all I will say is that it is bigger than the 4.5k I believe Matt is using, although ultimately it doesn't make such a huge difference.

I would urge no-one to use my guesstimates for any important decisions. The data is too imprecise ( or just completely unavailable) and the error margins are too wide.

I belive only after we seeing last bulletin of this fiscal year that there will be 100% certainity of exact movement, its extremely frustating that they just dont publish the Gc's issued every month even though they might have the data readily available.

I dont want to move to a new job with Nov 07 PD in eb2I as I missed the boat once. There needs to be 7000 spillover to cover my PD but I am not 100% certain that is going to happen even though I have pinned all my hopes on the movement which i expect in july/august.

I dont think the porters will get GC if they start making significant moves after august. ( even when they apply in July, only less than 50% might actually get GC)

[NOV2007]

Indiani,

Just for curiosity, do u have EAD? r just applying I485 for the first time. Am having NOV2007PD, I missed I485 filing last time in 2012. This time, I just want to see my luck if I can get a chance to apply for I485. If not this time I give it up and made up my mind to go back to home country. Qesh/Vizz have given me some hope here for my earlier posts saying NOV2007 will current based on their educated analysis and calculations. Hope for the best.


I belive only after we seeing last bulletin of this fiscal year that there will be 100% certainity of exact movement, its extremely frustating that they just dont publish the Gc's issued every month even though they might have the data readily available.

I dont want to move to a new job with Nov 07 PD in eb2I as I missed the boat once. There needs to be 7000 spillover to cover my PD but I am not 100% certain that is going to happen even though I have pinned all my hopes on the movement which i expect in july/august.

I dont think the porters will get GC if they start making significant moves after august. ( even when they apply in July, only less than 50% might actually get GC)

[MATT2012]

I am very much optimistic that Nov 2007 EB2I PD will get a chance to file I-485 this fiscal. But as Spec pointed out, dont take your decisions on any of our calculations. We try to make projections based on availaible data and some assumptions. if our assumptions hold well, our projections will be close enough to reality.

Good luck,

Matt

[indiani]

I am very much optimistic that Nov 2007 EB2I PD will get a chance to file I-485 this fiscal. But as Spec pointed out, dont take your decisions on any of our calculations. We try to make projections based on availaible data and some assumptions. if our assumptions hold well, our projections will be close enough to reality.

Good luck,

Matt

Thanks for your optimism matt,

I already filed 485 last year and I am not a porter. waiting from 2007 almost every month for bulletins and looking at trends , calculations etc., only to realise that CO left us out to give 2008/2009 folks. Like me most people who have been waiting from 2007 and early 2008 perhaps pinned all the hopes on this last Q.

Trackitt data is as close we can get to guess about approvals as possible but it is very difficult to say whether same percentage of actual applicants use trackitt consistently. changes in inventory/DD also have their limitations. even if everything we predict can be close there is no guarantee that CO will not waste visas and will follow FIFO.

My personal predicition for whatever its worth:
My guess is CO might make a safe move to jan 2007 or june 2007 to test how much porting is there in next bulletin before making any significant moves. I have watched over the years that he tends to "TEST THE WATERS" or check the 'DEMAND IN THE PIPELINE" before using all spillover. Folks who have been reading CO's past predictions might be familiar with the terms

[indiani]

I don't understand why you want to "give up and go back to home country."
After all these years I feel like this is my home country .

If you see the inventory dec 2007 has 900 cases. so to clear nov 2007 we need 7K spillover and currently the fact is that all the categories are current so invariable there will be spillover, as long as CO follows FIFO and doesnt waste visas my guess is that there are very high chances that it will clear by august thsi year. So does vast majority of people here think.

as I mentioned in my other post I have EAD and when i responded to RFE (EVL was asked) the case status online is still "request for evidence" even though when i sent a SR, they replied that they received EVL and the PD is not current etc..


If they dont follow FIFO this time I am considering suing the govt.,( if any reputable lawyer is willing to take the case.)

[MATT2012]

Thanks for your optimism matt,

I already filed 485 last year and I am not a porter. waiting from 2007 almost every month for bulletins and looking at trends , calculations etc., only to realise that CO left us out to give 2008/2009 folks. Like me most people who have been waiting from 2007 and early 2008 perhaps pinned all the hopes on this last Q.

Trackitt data is as close we can get to guess about approvals as possible but it is very difficult to say whether same percentage of actual applicants use trackitt consistently. changes in inventory/DD also have their limitations. even if everything we predict can be close there is no guarantee that CO will not waste visas and will follow FIFO.

My personal predicition for whatever its worth:
My guess is CO might make a safe move to jan 2007 or june 2007 to test how much porting is there in next bulletin before making any significant moves. I have watched over the years that he tends to "TEST THE WATERS" or check the 'DEMAND IN THE PIPELINE" before using all spillover. Folks who have been reading CO's past predictions might be familiar with the terms

Porting numbers will be high from 2006 folks. So for "TEST THE WATERS" he need to break at mid 2006 in July.Once dates gets into 2007, porting demand will fully show up. Also there cannot be significant number of approvals in September.I think it will be a very difficult balancing game for the last quarter for EB2I. This is what I think, in July say 60% of the projected SO will be applied, 30% in August, and the last 10% in September. On the other hand he is planning to move dates only in August, it will be a different ball game. I think I have heard Spec's and Viz's thought on pattern of date movement. Q, Kanmani any thoughts? Other gurus can also chip in. I know it is a difficult question, because none of us can read CO's thought process.All of us are equally helpless., but will be nice to hear from highly experienced folks.

[sbhagwat2000]

Some random thoughts abt the inventory.

1. EB2 WW has reduced considerably - Is this hyperactive USCIS? But it may be good news that demand has not increased hinting at lower applications in the coming months

2. EB1 - Has also decreased . Does this hint at lower approvals this year than the consensus here?

3. The odd thing abt EB2I was the 264 in August 2004. Whats with that? How is that possible that inventory increased for august by has considerably decreased for all earlier months? Something wrong there.

On the whole I think with the current data that we have we can safely assume a SO of around 7000 at the minimum.

[Spectator]

Thoughts inline.

Some random thoughts abt the inventory.

1. EB2 WW has reduced considerably - Is this hyperactive USCIS? But it may be good news that demand has not increased hinting at lower applications in the coming months

EB2-WW increased considerably in the October Inventory due to the effects of temporary retrogression. Although it has now decreased considerably, it has only returned to roughly the same level it was pre October. That might suggest that USCIS have processed the temporary increased backlog and that approvals will return to a normal level, but that level of approvals would still cause EB2-WW to exceed their allocation for the year.

2. EB1 - Has also decreased . Does this hint at lower approvals this year than the consensus here?

Very difficult to know what EB1 approvals might be. Approvals in EB1 also seem quite lumpy rather than steady stream.

The figures confirmed that the Trackitt numbers for Countries other than EB1-I are out of step with reality. The slight negative is that the EB1-I % of the total EB1 Inventory is slightly lower than comparable figures last year. That would push up the total number for EB1 calculated from Trackitt EB1-I figures. I would say this would be a tenuous observation at best.

At present, I think EB1 is likely to come in within the 34-38k range, allowing 7-11k Fall Down from EB1 itself (not including any contribution from EB4/EB5).

3. The odd thing abt EB2I was the 264 in August 2004. Whats with that? How is that possible that inventory increased for august by has considerably decreased for all earlier months? Something wrong there.

I don't have a comment.

On the whole I think with the current data that we have we can safely assume a SO of around 7000 at the minimum.

Currently, I don't see EB2-I receiving less than 7k extra visas. If it were that low, once offset by porting, it doesn't provide that many visas for other cases.

[indiani]

Some random thoughts abt the inventory.

1. EB2 WW has reduced considerably - Is this hyperactive USCIS? But it may be good news that demand has not increased hinting at lower applications in the coming months

2. EB1 - Has also decreased . Does this hint at lower approvals this year than the consensus here?

3. The odd thing abt EB2I was the 264 in August 2004. Whats with that? How is that possible that inventory increased for august by has considerably decreased for all earlier months? Something wrong there.

On the whole I think with the current data that we have we can safely assume a SO of around 7000 at the minimum.

EB2 WW drop is expected, see spec's post for explanation.

[indiani]

I dont think EB2WW will exceed their current quota (including FB which is already allocated), so Eb2I will receive from EB1, EB4 both combined approx 10K.(my guess is less than 10K)

I don't think cut off date movements from august onwards will give porters any GC this fiscal as 60 days too short for GC approval (even though very few can get). for all fresh applications July is your last hope to get GC this fiscal.

[indiani]

all FB's are spread across already,. so there is no 12K that will fall to EB2I, as EB2WW and EB5 will likely us ealmost most of the FB spillover applied to them.
EB1, EB4 will give few thousands to EB2I (less than 10K)

[qesehmk]

Nov2007 - although ours is educated guess - I really would be surprised if the guess doesn't come true. Having said that ... I think everybody has certain priorities. So make a decision that will excite you for future. If that means going back to India or stay here ... that would turn out terrific eitherway.
Indiani,

Just for curiosity, do u have EAD? r just applying I485 for the first time. Am having NOV2007PD, I missed I485 filing last time in 2012. This time, I just want to see my luck if I can get a chance to apply for I485. If not this time I give it up and made up my mind to go back to home country. Qesh/Vizz have given me some hope here for my earlier posts saying NOV2007 will current based on their educated analysis and calculations. Hope for the best.

[suninphx]

indiani,

It's still too early to say.

I want to wait to see what the first movement is in the July VB.

Gut feel says my existing forecast is now a little optimistic and represents a best case scenario. Full disclosure - am using quite an aggressive amount for porting numbers. If that is incorrect, then I will be seen as pessimistic. Don't ask the number - all I will say is that it is bigger than the 4.5k I believe Matt is using, although ultimately it doesn't make such a huge difference.

I would urge no-one to use my guesstimates for any important decisions. The data is too imprecise ( or just completely unavailable) and the error margins are too wide.

Even if porting is higher - what % of that would get approved this FY?

[indiani]

Even if porting is higher - what % of that would get approved this FY?

If they moves dates in july significantly and many porters apply 485 ; then many of those ( potentially couple of thousands) will consume GC's but anyone who applies in august most likely will get EAD this fiscal.

[suninphx]

If they moves dates in july significantly and many porters apply 485 ; then many of those ( potentially couple of thousands)

Sounds optimistic to me ...let me check current I485 processing time

[Spectator]

Even if porting is higher - what % of that would get approved this FY?suninphx,

That is the big question.

If USCIS have been lining up those pre July 2007 cases who already have a pending I-485 for approval, by requesting RFE in advance, then it could be quite a lot, because approval would be as quick as for any other EB2 case.

Any RFE after dates become current, whether porting or straight EB2, is going to compromise the chances of being approved this FY.


If they moves dates in july significantly and many porters apply 485 ; then many of those ( potentially couple of thousands) will consume GC's but anyone who applies in august most likely will get EAD this fiscal.indiani,

I don't think that is such a big factor. Most porting cases already have an I-485 pending under EB3. That limits the effect only to post July 2007 PD cases that completed the new EB2 I-140 process after April/May 2012. Those cases would be in the minority.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

That is the big question.

If USCIS have been lining up those pre July 2007 cases who already have a pending I-485 for approval, by requesting RFE in advance, then it could be quite a lot, because approval would be as quick as for any other EB2 case.

Any RFE after dates become current, whether porting or straight EB2, is going to compromise the chances of being approved this FY.



Spectator,

that brings us back to the question if USCIS processes porting cases - even if dates are not current ?

[indiani]

suninphx,

That is the big question.

If USCIS have been lining up those pre July 2007 cases who already have a pending I-485 for approval, by requesting RFE in advance, then it could be quite a lot, because approval would be as quick as for any other EB2 case.

Any RFE after dates become current, whether porting or straight EB2, is going to compromise the chances of being approved this FY.

indiani,

I don't think that is such a big factor. Most porting cases already have an I-485 pending under EB3. That limits the effect only to post July 2007 PD cases that completed the new EB2 I-140 process after April/May 2012. Those cases would be in the minority.

In that case there could be upto 7K or more total porters who will consume GC's as they have been waiting for over an year, there will be very high demand which i dont think is reflected yet in last DD. So there might be some chances of dates not moving beyond summer 2007, this scenario though doesnt appear likely but definitely possible.
Most calculations have expectant bias so many of us waiting are in denial of that real possibility of movement just enough to giev mostly porters and very few left over before summer 2007.

I am not sure whether i should ask L2 officer abt predictions, I am waiting on them to pick up the phone with average wait time of 75 min :(

[vizcard]

Spectator,

that brings us back to the question if USCIS processes porting cases - even if dates are not current ?

Why would they not ? its like pre-adjudication of regular EB2 cases.

[suninphx]

Why would they not ? its like pre-adjudication of regular EB2 cases.

I am happy if they do- that way isn't porting already in DD? (well, majority of that)

[suninphx]

I am happy if they do- that way isn't porting already in DD? (well, majority of that)

Ok - I think I see what you guys are saying. They are pre-adjudicated as EB3 cases and given a visa number from EB2 when dates are current?

[NOV2007]

Thanks Qeseh for your Suggestions. Am pretty confident your analysis is going to be perfect for this FY.
I have searched very meticulously internet and I havn't found any other forum which is as good as this is. Its a great contribution from you along with other Guru's here.

Reply to Matt for my previous response
------------------------------------------
Matt, I totally agree with you on analysis and prediction is being done here. We hope for it to happen because of lot of effort and time you guys have spent in analysis and to make prediction on PD movement. If it doesn't happen its nothing to blame upon, because its not in any of Guru's or Qeseh hands. But you guys analysis will help people like me to understand what is driving PD movements and understand the system better.


Nov2007 - although ours is educated guess - I really would be surprised if the guess doesn't come true. Having said that ... I think everybody has certain priorities. So make a decision that will excite you for future. If that means going back to India or stay here ... that would turn out terrific eitherway.

[Spectator]

Ok - I think I see what you guys are saying. They are pre-adjudicated as EB3 cases and given a visa number from EB2 when dates are current?suninphx,

Yes, that is exactly right.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Yes, that is exactly right.

Thank you !

[gc2008]

Pending inventory released:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2004-02-2013%20Final.pdf

[Spectator]

Pending inventory released:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2004-02-2013%20Final.pdfgc2008,

You might want to go back to page 65 to see the discussion on the new Inventory.

[gctracker]

The current pending inventory is well into 2013 as compared to pending inventory that was released in Jan. So, if we just compare clearances for EB1 till end of 2012, it almost cleared 5K between 3 months span. Probably decent rate of approvals for EB1. EB2-WW also cleared almost in the similar lines. For EB2I, while moving the PD for July VB, with SO still to play its role, I am just thinking CO will start from where he has left before the the PD went "U", which is 15-AUG-2007 or he would start with 01-SEP-2007, by jumping 3 years, but may not be less than that. That would be a good starting point for him to play the game which he can control in a better way. Then depending on the porting cases and SO left, that he could see by then, probably the August VB could be anywhere between Jan'08 - Mar'08. But certainly this Fiscal Year has been the worst by far in terms of PD movement so far, with porting factor playing a major disastrous role for the first time for EB2I. By keeping the PD standstill, looks like CO wants to make sure that the "original" EB2I applicants should get a majority of the SO at least before this FY ends. Traditionally when the FY ends every year, from the recent years data, we can see that, India and China EB2 mostly end up with same PD. Unless we get some indication in July VB and DD, this theory may prove wrong this time.

[vizcard]

The current pending inventory is well into 2013 as compared to pending inventory that was released in Jan. So, if we just compare clearances for EB1 till end of 2012, it almost cleared 5K between 3 months span. Probably decent rate of approvals for EB1. EB2-WW also cleared almost in the similar lines. For EB2I, while moving the PD for July VB, with SO still to play its role, I am just thinking CO will start from where he has left before the the PD went "U", which is 15-AUG-2007 or he would start with 01-SEP-2007, by jumping 3 years, but may not be less than that. That would be a good starting point for him to play the game which he can control in a better way. Then depending on the porting cases and SO left, that he could see by then, probably the August VB could be anywhere between Jan'08 - Mar'08. But certainly this Fiscal Year has been the worst by far in terms of PD movement so far, with porting factor playing a major disastrous role for the first time for EB2I. By keeping the PD standstill, looks like CO wants to make sure that the "original" EB2I applicants should get a majority of the SO at least before this FY ends. Traditionally when the FY ends every year, from the recent years data, we can see that, India and China EB2 mostly end up with same PD. Unless we get some indication in July VB and DD, this theory may prove wrong this time.

I don't think CO really cares about porting vs regular EB2I. For him its still backlog that needs to be cleared. My sense is that he will attempt to clear all backlog up to July 2007 first and then use any remaining SOFAD in small movements to clear rest of 2007 and then early 2008. Dont be surprised is the Sept VB becomes "U" for EB2I.

Also, it is unlikely that India and China will end with the same PD. China can move far head just with their regular allocation. EB2I might still be stuck in the early part of 2008..China for sure will be in Q3/Q4 2008.

This FY has been horrible for movement but thankfully we got the FB overflow which really is a life saver ..especially for the 2007 folks. The PD+5 yrs rule of thumb doesn't apply anymore for the 2007 and mid-2008 folks.

[gctracker]

If my reading is correct, with 'rough' comparison of pending inventory data of May 2009 and May 2010, and PD movement in the last 4 months of those FYs, with regards to EB2I, looks like the SO came into play with approximately 0%-51%-29%-20% ratio in 2009, and 44%-44%-12%-0% ratio in 2010. So SO allocation was a gradual decline towards FYs end. No statistical data available to dig into prior years similarly. We can't be sure on if the strategy would be the same this time, but chances are high as SO allocation 'decline' patter seems similar. So we can look forward to a major jump for July VB, followed by baby steps in August and September gradually. Certainly FB overflow could be of some help, but not sure on how much steam is left in it, as part of it could have already been used for multiple categories.

[Kanmani]

When is a Consular Processed Immigrant Visa Applicant Documentarily Qualified ?

http://travel.state.gov/visa/laws/telegrams/telegrams_1541.html

"An applicant is considered to be documentarily qualified when two facets of the processing procedure have been completed:

(1) The alien has returned Form DS-2001, Instructions for Immigrant Visa Applicants, and declared that all of the required documents have been obtained, or has otherwise notified post or NVC that they are prepared for interview; and

(2) The post has completed local clearances, and clearance requests for other posts, or has reason to believe that they will be completed before a visa number will be available for the applicant"

My observations,

The processing procedures of consular posts differs country to country.

Only Consular Posts are involved in getting visa numbers (Automated ?) not NVC.
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/87859.pdf

CP issuing the immigrant visa are instructing the applicant to enter US before 6 months or else return the visa packet to the consular so as to use the visa to others eligible ( from diff document)

[vizcard]

Q/Spec/Matt / others...

Help me understand why the inventory numbers and demand numbers for EB2I are so close to each other? Does that mean that almost all the inventory has been pre-adjudicated?

Also, how does porting fit in to inventory numbers (if at all) ?

[sandyn16]

Reading the calculations posted here, everyone seems to talk about where the dates will end by September? what does this mean for July? Does this mean in July there will be less movement ( test the waters type) or big movement? Any predictions?

[ramakrpb]

Kanmani,

A question regarding Consular Processing for EB2I - is it necessary for the beneficiary to be employed with the same employer who filed I140/GC at the time of interview. After GC is approved at consular post, of course the beneficiary will be joining back the same employer in the US. But the question is regarding the interim period.

Thanks,
R

[vizcard]

Reading the calculations posted here, everyone seems to talk about where the dates will end by September? what does this mean for July? Does this mean in July there will be less movement ( test the waters type) or big movement? Any predictions?

Depends on how you define big movement. If we have any movement it will not exceed July 2007.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

A question regarding Consular Processing for EB2I - is it necessary for the beneficiary to be employed with the same employer who filed I140/GC at the time of interview. After GC is approved at consular post, of course the beneficiary will be joining back the same employer in the US. But the question is regarding the interim period.

Thanks,
R
Not at all.
GC is for future employment holds true for both Adjustment of Status and CP.

[sandyn16]

Do we think there are chances of crossing July 2006?

[Kanmani]

Q/Spec/Matt / others...

Help me understand why the inventory numbers and demand numbers for EB2I are so close to each other? Does that mean that almost all the inventory has been pre-adjudicated?

Also, how does porting fit in to inventory numbers (if at all) ?

Let me try to answer this,

All inventory numbers are not pre-adjudicated.
All Demand Data numbers are pre-adjudicated.
Porting numbers in my understanding remain as EB3 in the inventory.

[Kanmani]

Spec, Where is that post :)

Am I correct in #1670 ?

[vizcard]

Let me try to answer this,

All inventory numbers are not pre-adjudicated.
All Demand Data numbers are pre-adjudicated.
Porting numbers in my understanding remain as EB3 in the inventory.

I get the first two. but if the two numbers are close to equal i.e. demand ~= inventory that implies that almost all Eb2I 485s are pre-adjudicated. That seemed a little odd to me ... but maybe its true.

As far as EB3 goes, how would a porter be in EB3 inventory if the upgrade is already done and its just waiting for an EB2 visa to be avialable. I don't understand the mechanics or protocol here so perhaps someone can help me with that.

[vizcard]

Do we think there are chances of crossing July 2006?

In July..probably... by Sept- 100%

[Kanmani]

I get the first two. but if the two numbers are close to equal i.e. demand ~= inventory that implies that almost all Eb2I 485s are pre-adjudicated. That seemed a little odd to me ... but maybe its true.

As far as EB3 goes, how would a porter be in EB3 inventory if the upgrade is already done and its just waiting for an EB2 visa to be avialable. I don't understand the mechanics or protocol here so perhaps someone can help me with that.

I differ from others here, whenever there is retrogression, a porting case is not upgraded to EB2 . I think only the upgraded I-140 and request for change of category documents are documented .

Lets see what is in Spec's mind.

PS: I recall from memory, Q&A session with USCIS, ombudman repeatedly adviced them to remove the EB3 porting numbers from the pending inventory on time . I didn't bookmark the page.

[vizcard]

I differ from others here, whenever there is retrogression, a porting case is not upgraded to EB2 . I think only the upgraded I-140 and request for change of category documents are documented .

Lets see what is in Spec's mind.

PS: I recall from memory, Q&A session with USCIS, ombudman repeatedly adviced them to remove the EB3 porting numbers from the pending inventory on time . I didn't bookmark the page.

Between the Jan and April inventories, EB3I has reduced by approx 750 for 2004 - 2007. That has to be porting.

[Kanmani]

Between the Jan and April inventories, EB3I has reduced by approx 750 for 2004 - 2007. That has to be porting.

Do you see those 750 added to EB2I ?

[qesehmk]

Viz

My understanding is as follows:

Inventory = documentarily qualified (but not necessarily preadjudicated) 485 cases. It doesn't include CP.
Demand Data = demand data for cases that are preadjudicated and a visa has been requested. It does include CP and 485 cases for which a visa has been requested (but not necessarily granted).

So based on this understanding if 485 numbers and demand data numbers for EB2I are close to each other then it could mean that yes indeed the cases are pre-adjudicated and ready for a visa + that CP cases for EB2I are minimal if at all.

As per ported cases, a ported case (i.e. the one filed later) may not figure in either demand data or 485 inventory for entirely different reasons:
USCIS won't ask for a separate visa. Instead they will simply change the existing visa request with new category / classification. So demand data will not be impacted overall (although category composition does change)
Whereas as per 485 inventory, if the ported category is current then the case gets approved before becoming part of 485 inventory. Only if the ported category is not current, the case will start appearing in 485 inventory as EB2 along with the corresponding EB3 case.

I know my understand may not perfect --- since none of us really know -- so consider this as a logical way of looking at things.


Q/Spec/Matt / others...

Help me understand why the inventory numbers and demand numbers for EB2I are so close to each other? Does that mean that almost all the inventory has been pre-adjudicated?

Also, how does porting fit in to inventory numbers (if at all) ?

[erikbond101]

Let me post my prediction also, I'm not a Guru but just learning along the way:


We have 11K real spill over to EB2I last year (with 4K FB visa) because EB2I ate 6K of EB2ROW last year.

This year EB2I may again have 11K spillover but 6K will go to EB2ROW (because of last year cutoff of EB2ROW). So total left SO will be 5K for EB2I.

Now with 18K FB extra visas, EB2I is going to get another 8-9K additional visa. So total will 13K-14K.

EB1 is not going to consume 40K like last year. It will give another 5K. With addition of this total SO will be 13K+5K= 18K to EB2I SO. We may have higher usage of EB4 and EB5 but additional FB visas will offset those demand.

18K spillover will be final number to EB2I.

April 13 inventory of I-485 is showing 12984 cases pending prior to May 1 2008. If we consider porting and some additional dependent visas for porters, 18K SO will clear out all case till some date in May 2008.

[helooo]

Let me post my prediction also, I'm not a Guru but just learning along the way:


We have 11K real spill over to EB2I last year (with 4K FB visa) because EB2I ate 6K of EB2ROW last year.

This year EB2I may again have 11K spillover but 6K will go to EB2ROW (because of last year cutoff of EB2ROW). So total left SO will be 5K for EB2I.

Now with 18K FB extra visas, EB2I is going to get another 8-9K additional visa. So total will 13K-14K.

EB1 is not going to consume 40K like last year. It will give another 5K. With addition of this total SO will be 13K+5K= 18K to EB2I SO. We may have higher usage of EB4 and EB5 but additional FB visas will offset those demand.

18K spillover will be final number to EB2I.

April 13 inventory of I-485 is showing 12984 cases pending prior to May 1 2008. If we consider porting and some additional dependent visas for porters, 18K SO will clear out all case till some date in May 2008.
Hi All
I counted 15,769 before July 2008.What else are we adding to them?So I thought if we have 18K coming in ,then dates should be July 2008.Is it correct or my calculations are wrong?Thanks!

[sbhagwat2000]

Do you see those 750 added to EB2I ?

Why are about 520 added to Eb2I 2004 to 2007. If the apps are not added to the EB2 Queue if dates are not current then where are these extra cases coming from ? USCIS is so inefficient that they are adding the cases that were current last year now?

[Kanmani]

Sbhagawat,

If for instance the above logic is true, then the following should be true.

Porting numbers are guesstimated around 5000 to 7500 (Matt) this FY and we have already passed a half year, then the current inventory must reflect at least 2500 to 3750 more in EB2I with the reduction of same or less in EB3.

See, I am not arguing against other's way of understanding and with no proper documentation of how porting cases are handled is available at this point of time, it is all assumption to our convenience.

I already have mentioned about this that I differ from others in this particular subject. I stop here.

[sbhagwat2000]

Sbhagawat,

If for instance the above logic is true, then the following should be true.

Porting numbers are guesstimated around 5000 to 7500 (Matt) this FY and we have already passed a half year, then the current inventory must reflect at least 2500 to 3750 more in EB2I with the reduction of same or less in EB3.

See, I am not arguing against other's way of understanding and with no proper documentation of how porting cases are handled is available at this point of time, it is all assumption to our convenience.

I already have mentioned about this that I differ from others in this particular subject. I stop here.

Well estimates can be wrong . I am basing by arguments on data in the inventory not estimates. The Fact is that numbers are increasing when dates are not current. It can either be porting applications added when dates not current or USCIS being the most inefficient body in this world. So see I am not arguing for or against anything I am just stating the facts

[MATT2012]

Q/Spec/Matt / others...

Help me understand why the inventory numbers and demand numbers for EB2I are so close to each other? Does that mean that almost all the inventory has been pre-adjudicated?

Also, how does porting fit in to inventory numbers (if at all) ?

Hi Viz,

I somehow missed your question before, I noticed only when Q answered your question.

April Inventory numbers are very close to May Demand in EB2I and EB3I. So I dont think there is a huge number of CP cases in demand.So mostly all cases are pre-adjudicated for both EB2I and EB3I. As porting happens based on an underlying approved I-140, in I-485 terms they are also pre-adjudicated, irrespective of where they are counted( EB3 Vs EB2). I am not sure how they merge an EB3 case into EB2, but from what I have observed in trackitt the approval takes around three weeks.

Then why is EB3I dropping where EB2I PD's are not current. Also why is EB2I increasing where PD is not current. EB2I increased by 584 cases where PD is not current in inventory. EB3I decreased by 1118 where PD is not current in EB2. This is just by comparing October 2012 Inventory to April 2013 inventory.

In June Demand data EB2I made a further increase where PD is not current. So I am not sure how to interpret it. The increases we see are not very close to the expected porting figures,so it is not that porting is getting reflected. All that I could think is some data cleansing is happening, and the increases and decreases is a reflection of it. Most optimistically thinking a minor percentage of porting somehow is getting reflected.

But for calculation purposes I will stick with the official version that Q stated in his reply.

Matt.

[suninphx]

Sbhagawat,

If for instance the above logic is true, then the following should be true.

Porting numbers are guesstimated around 5000 to 7500 (Matt) this FY and we have already passed a half year, then the current inventory must reflect at least 2500 to 3750 more in EB2I with the reduction of same or less in EB3.

See, I am not arguing against other's way of understanding and with no proper documentation of how porting cases are handled is available at this point of time, it is all assumption to our convenience.

I already have mentioned about this that I differ from others in this particular subject. I stop here.

Kanmani - whats your stand on this subject? Are you saying that porting numbers are getting reflected in EB2 already?

[Kanmani]

Kanmani - whats your stand on this subject? Are you saying that porting numbers are getting reflected in EB2 already?

Suninphx,

I stand by my posts #1671, #1674.

I am not sure, but my understanding is, they stay as EB3 in the inventory and removed after the case is adjudicated (GC)

I'll try to prove myself wrong for the sake our betterment in the subject.

[suninphx]

Suninphx,

I stand by my posts #1671, #1674.

I am not sure, but my understanding is, they stay as EB3 in the inventory and removed after the case is adjudicated (GC)

I'll try to prove myself wrong for the sake our betterment in the subject.

Ok got it Kanmani - thanks !!

[Spectator]

The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) has been updated with the March 2013 figures, for those that follow this.

[bvsamrat]

What I also think that majority of porting numbers are accounted either in inventory and or in demand and porting numbers in 2005-2007 does not appear that high.

Then why the PD remained same for the last many months? I can not say as we do not know how many the visa numbers allotted during this time?

[chengisk]

What I also think that majority of porting numbers are accounted either in inventory and or in demand and porting numbers in 2005-2007 does not appear that high.

As per the inventory, the difference between Jan 2005 and Jan 2007 during October 2012 and April 2013 is +504 cases. On an average there is an addition 20 cases per month during this period (Oct'12-Apr'13) with a minimum of 0 and maximum of 73. Are these the cases that were previously submitted (pre-June'12) and getting qualified with time and hence being added into the inventory?

[kd2008]

Hey Spec,

We need your expertise in analyzing this data

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/business/immigration-h1-b.pdf

I understand that this covers EB1/2/3 and may not exactly useful but it tells something fascinating for sure.

It also makes me wonder if we should all start filing FOIA requests with USCIS so we can get data for Spec to analyze.

Thanks!

[Spectator]

Hey Spec,

We need your expertise in analyzing this data

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/business/immigration-h1-b.pdf

I understand that this covers EB1/2/3 and may not exactly useful but it tells something fascinating for sure.

It also makes me wonder if we should all start filing FOIA requests with USCIS so we can get data for Spec to analyze.

Thanks!kd,

I agree it is interesting, but in a very frustrating way!!

As someone has already pointed out in the Trackitt thread, the data is only for people who held H1B status at the time they filed their I-485. It is therefore only a small part of the total I-485 receipts.

For India, given relatively few people in years other than FY2012 could file a new I-485 in EB2 or EB3, the majority of receipts probably relate to EB1 filings. It's unlikely many EB4 or EB5 applicants also held H1B status.

For EB2 and EB3 (India), there are likely to have been some filings for Dependents that didn't exist in 2007 and also a few filings for people who missed the boat.

So much is missing. In particular, anybody who filed while in another status - especially L1. That is important for EB1 (EB1C in particular) as well as EB2 and EB3.

The report would also be missing CP cases, since they are not handled by USCIS and do not involve an I-485.

I had a look on the USCIS site and could not find this information. It is a shame that USCIS are providing information but not making it available on their own site.

It's clear that USCIS have at least some capability to produce meaningful reports - it's a shame they don't use that capability. USCIS have not yet published a single All USCIS Application and Petition Form Types Performance Data report this FY. We should have seen two by now.

For reference, USCIS reported 78,302 total EB I-485 receipts in FY2011 and 140,107 total EB I-485 receipts in FY2012, so this report only covers 42% and 48% respectively for FY2011 and FY2012 (the difference being the advancement of EB2-IC Cut Off Dates).

FY2013 appears to be on track for about 32k, if the 19.4k is prorated to the whole year and seems comparable to a normal year.

What are your thoughts on the data? I've only skimmed through it to date, so I well may have missed something.

[sbhagwat2000]

kd,

I agree it is interesting, but in a very frustrating way!!

As someone has already pointed out in the Trackitt thread, the data is only for people who held H1B status at the time they filed their I-485. It is therefore only a small part of the total I-485 receipts.

For India, given relatively few people in years other than FY2012 could file a new I-485 in EB2 or EB3, the majority of receipts probably relate to EB1 filings. It's unlikely many EB4 or EB5 applicants also held H1B status.

For EB2 and EB3 (India), there are likely to have been some filings for Dependents that didn't exist in 2007 and also a few filings for people who missed the boat.

So much is missing. In particular, anybody who filed while in another status - especially L1. That is important for EB1 (EB1C in particular) as well as EB2 and EB3.

The report would also be missing CP cases, since they are not handled by USCIS and do not involve an I-485.

I had a look on the USCIS site and could not find this information. It is a shame that USCIS are providing information but not making it available on their own site.

It's clear that USCIS have at least some capability to produce meaningful reports - it's a shame they don't use that capability. USCIS have not yet published a single All USCIS Application and Petition Form Types Performance Data report this FY. We should have seen two by now.

For reference, USCIS reported 78,302 total EB I-485 receipts in FY2011 and 140,107 total EB I-485 receipts in FY2012, so this report only covers 42% and 48% respectively for FY2011 and FY2012 (the difference being the advancement of EB2-IC Cut Off Dates).

FY2013 appears to be on track for about 32k, if the 19.4k is prorated to the whole year and seems comparable to a normal year.

What are your thoughts on the data? I've only skimmed through it to date, so I well may have missed something.
Anythingwe can say abt eb2 ww looking at this data

[vizcard]

Anythingwe can say abt eb2 ww looking at this data

whatever Spec wrote in his post about Eb2I related to incomplete data applies to EB2WW

[sbhagwat2000]

Everyone is really silent on this forum. I guess waiting for July bulletin. Some thoughts -

1. Whats happening with EB2 I? trackitt approvals are down drastically for the third straight month. Wonder whats going on. Is it really demand destruction or there is something else at play. Is it possible with such low demand EB2 I will move w/o SO

2. EB2 WW demand is still high. I was hoping it would fall approvals are still happening at a high rate. I hope it slows down.

3. Any information about EB4 - will we have 2000 SO this year again?

[Spectator]

Everyone is really silent on this forum. I guess waiting for July bulletin. Some thoughts -

1. Whats happening with EB2 I? trackitt approvals are down drastically for the third straight month. Wonder whats going on. Is it really demand destruction or there is something else at play. Is it possible with such low demand EB2 I will move w/o SO

2. EB2 WW demand is still high. I was hoping it would fall approvals are still happening at a high rate. I hope it slows down.

3. Any information about EB4 - will we have 2000 SO this year again?sbhagwat2000,

I am certainly waiting for the next VB.

Although Trackitt EB2-I approvals have been low for the last 2 months, I think we have to assume there have been sufficient cases to use the monthly allotments. By the end of May, they should have used between 2.0-2.3k.

Trackitt certainly does not lack pending EB2-I cases ** with pre September 2004 PD who are waiting for approval. Had there been insufficient cases, the Cut Off dates would have moved forward, even if it had been a small amount. **Or EB3-I cases that show an approved I-140 under EB2.

In May, EB2-ROW might, for the first time this FY, come in under the normal average monthly usage, but not by so much that they might also come in under allocation for the year unless approval levels plummet for the rest of the year. Again, there is no lack of Trackitt applications waiting for approval for some time. EB2-P, from very limited data, also looks to be above normal.

I've never seen any information about EB4 published; this year that also seems to apply to EB5. I don't expect CO to mention EB4 in the next VB, but I do hope he will say something about EB1 and EB5 (but that may just be a hope). I am hoping for rather more than 2k SO from EB4, given they have an allocation of 11.2k.

[sbhagwat2000]

sbhagwat2000,

I am certainly waiting for the next VB.

Although Trackitt EB2-I approvals have been low for the last 2 months, I think we have to assume there have been sufficient cases to use the monthly allotments. By the end of May, they should have used between 2.0-2.3k.

Trackitt certainly does not lack pending EB2-I cases ** with pre September 2004 PD who are waiting for approval. Had there been insufficient cases, the Cut Off dates would have moved forward, even if it had been a small amount. **Or EB3-I cases that show an approved I-140 under EB2.

In May, EB2-ROW might, for the first time this FY, come in under the normal average monthly usage, but not by so much that they might also come in under allocation for the year unless approval levels plummet for the rest of the year. Again, there is no lack of Trackitt applications waiting for approval for some time. EB2-P, from very limited data, also looks to be above normal.

I've never seen any information about EB4 published; this year that also seems to apply to EB5. I don't expect CO to mention EB4 in the next VB, but I do hope he will say something about EB1 and EB5 (but that may just be a hope). I am hoping for rather more than 2k SO from EB4, given they have an allocation of 11.2k.

Interesting. So then what do you think is preventing them from using monthly allocation for EB2I? The approvals are just too low to not reflect a change in demand. Also what do number on trackitt do you think represents normal monthly allocation on trackitt for ROW - 60? Is it safe to assume a SO of atleast 7000 for EB2I. And finally do you see some movement in July or your thinking is changing?

[Spectator]

Interesting. So then what do you think is preventing them from using monthly allocation for EB2I? The approvals are just too low to not reflect a change in demand. Also what do number on trackitt do you think represents normal monthly allocation on trackitt for ROW - 60? Is it safe to assume a SO of atleast 7000 for EB2I. And finally do you see some movement in July or your thinking is changing?sbhagwat2000,

I lost my original reply, so here is a very condensed one.

I think the monthly EB2-I allocation has been used. Either, such old EB2-I dates aren't properly reflected in Trackitt, or the low numbers now are balancing the very high early numbers.

As I calculate, 50 EB2-ROW approvals per month is average. To date, May has 41 and I would expect that to rise to at least 45 (90%) eventually.

I expect to see considerable movement in July. I would be slightly concerned if there is not.

[seattlet]

I hope Spec's words come true. Just 10 more days to go....




sbhagwat2000,

I lost my original reply, so here is a very condensed one.

I think the monthly EB2-I allocation has been used. Either, such old EB2-I dates aren't properly reflected in Trackitt, or the low numbers now are balancing the very high early numbers.

As I calculate, 50 EB2-ROW approvals per month is average. To date, May has 41 and I would expect that to rise to at least 45 (90%) eventually.

I expect to see considerable movement in July. I would be slightly concerned if there is not.

[sandyn16]

Do you think dates will cross into 2007 in July vb?

[indiani]

Do you think dates will cross into 2007 in July vb?

simple answer: MOST LIKELY

How far: My hope jan 2008
My prediction jan 2007

[indiani]

If there is no movement in July and no prediction from CO about significant movement then I am using AC21 and changing job, the current one is not sustainable.

One question as we can be unemployed while AOS pending; when I find a new job, can I send the EVL stating that I intend to join as soon as GC approved?

[Kanmani]

If there is no movement in July and no prediction from CO about significant movement then I am using AC21 and changing job, the current one is not sustainable.

One question as we can be unemployed while AOS pending; when I find a new job, can I send the EVL stating that I intend to join as soon as GC approved?

Correct me if I misunderstood your statement, EVL's purpose is not that you intend to join the sponsoring employer, it has to assure the job described in the perm is still available to you. So, if you change job, wait for an RFE( if any) for other correspondences.

[indiani]

Correct me if I misunderstood your statement, EVL's purpose is not that you intend to join the sponsoring employer, it has to assure the job described in the perm is still available to you. So, if you change job, wait for an RFE( if any) for other correspondences.

I will give you the hypothetical scenario:

1. I have EAD and more than 180 days after 485 aplication.
2. My current employer sponsored the GC
3. I will quit the current employer.
4. I will agree to join employer X as soon as my GC is approved.
5. i will send EVL from employer X stating salary, position and that my intention is to join as soon as GC granted.

The last part is what I am not sure about, should the EVL for AC21 state that I am employed by the employer X and actively working or just the fact that the job is available and I WILL join as soon as GC approved, in the sense I can sta at home for a while without work/pay

[Kanmani]

indiani,

Invoking AC21 portability enables you to change employers forever, there is no need to join the sponsoring employer after GC. AC21 EVL describes a same or similar job is available to you under the portability requirements from a different employer.

If you intend to join the sponsoring employer after your GC, do you think there is a need to invoke AC21 at all ?

My opinion is a NO.

[indiani]

[QUOTE=Kanmani;35634]indiani,

Invoking AC21 portability enables you to change employers forever,
there is no need to join the sponsoring employer after GC.

I understand the fact that there is no need to wait until GC approved to join new employer but my point is CAN WE WAIT until GC approved to join new employer if we want to?


AC21 EVL describes a same or similar job is available to you under the portability requirements from a different employer.

If you intend to join the sponsoring employer after your GC, do you think there is a need to invoke AC21 at all ?

I think sending EVL from new employer is an optional thing and it all depends upon the risks vs benifits of notifying USCIS about the GC sponsoring employer. If PD is going to be current soon, I will prefer not to inform them and risk RFE as it NOT an absulute requirement.

[Kanmani]

If you have worked for the sponsor sometime during the GC process, you can immediately quit the sponsor as soon as you receive the GC.

If you have same or similar job offer in hand and the corresponding employer is willing to provide you with EVL, you need not join the original sponsor at all in any stage of your GC process as per AC21 portability provisions !

[indiani]

If you have worked for the sponsor sometime during the GC process, you can immediately quit the sponsor as soon as you receive the GC.

If you have same or similar job offer in hand and the corresponding employer is willing to provide you with EVL, you need not join the original sponsor at all in any stage of your GC process as per AC21 portability provisions !


Thanks , I was looking for the same answers, as there is AC21 portability law, i think after 180 days after 485 application we can leave employer even the next day after GC. ( even though I don't ahve any plans to do so)

Even if I want to leave the current employer now, as long as I join same and similar job as soon as I get GC I think i should be fine.

I am thinking about being self-employed after GC, I am a physician so finding a job with similar duties is easy anytime and also being self-employed is also easy. I just want to get a "sense of freedom" so I just don't continue to put up with the abusive practices of the employer.

Even though as H-1 employees we are entitled to equal work/pay, its not easy to demand and complain about it as no one wants to take a risk of developping "bad terms " with employer. with last Q of fiscal showing some promise of PD movement , I am anxiously waiting for the PD movement and want to have some peace irrespective of what I find in the bulletins.

[MeraGC1]

Friends,
I have an issue with H1 transfer. I got a job and the company applied for H1 transfer. I haven't quit my current employer, who is my gc sponsorer. My 485 is pending since Jan 2012. There are some issues with the new employer and I don't want to join them anymore. Will it affect my current H1?

Thanks in advance.

[Kanmani]

Friends,
I have an issue with H1 transfer. I got a job and the company applied for H1 transfer. I haven't quit my current employer, who is my gc sponsorer. My 485 is pending since Jan 2012. There are some issues with the new employer and I don't want to join them anymore. Will it affect my current H1?

Thanks in advance.

It won't affect your current H1b, unless you join the new employer with an approved new H1b.

If you haven't joined the new employer, even though new H1b is approved, old H1b is also valid, you can continue with the old employer.

[MATT2012]

All Gurus,

Is it necessary to have a cut off date established for EB2-P, if visa allocation crosses 3163 mark for this fiscal?

Thanks,

Matt

[Spectator]

All Gurus,

Is it necessary to have a cut off date established for EB2-P, if visa allocation crosses 3163 mark for this fiscal?

Thanks,

MattMatt,

In my opinion, no, because of the operation of the 7% limit at an overall level.

Since FB-P will reach the 7% limit anyway, we can simplify it down to EB numbers.

7% of 158k is 11k.

Philippines use relatively few visas in EB1, EB4, and EB5 (0.6k in FY2012, 0.5k in FY2011).

That means that realistically, EB2-P can use as many visas as they want and not hit the 7% limit.

It may limit EB3-P ability to use as many visas as they might otherwise have done (they used 6.5k last FY).

PS It is quite possible that EB2-P have already reached or exceeded the initial allocation IMO.

[MATT2012]

Matt,

In my opinion, no, because of the operation of the 7% limit at an overall level.

Since FB-P will reach the 7% limit anyway, we can simplify it down to EB numbers.

7% of 158k is 11k.

Philippines use relatively few visas in EB1, EB4, and EB5 (0.6k in FY2012, 0.5k in FY2011).

That means that realistically, EB2-P can use as many visas as they want and not hit the 7% limit.

It may limit EB3-P ability to use as many visas as they might otherwise have done (they used 6.5k last FY).

PS It is quite possible that EB2-P have already reached or exceeded the initial allocation IMO.
Thank you Spec, make sense. I also think that they have almost reached the initial allocation or slightly exceeded it, so was looking for any possible indicators.

[NOV2007]

Guru's,

Are we 100% sure, in the first bulletin of last quarter we can make a clear indication on where the PD date reach at the end of the FY? or what if we see similar bulletin and DD what we had seen last month over the next month too(like not containing much information to make a 100% correct analysis). In that case we still cann't confirm 100% where the PD date reach at the end of the FY? Am I correct, Pls clarify me on this if am wrong.


Thank you Spec, make sense. I also think that they have almost reached the initial allocation or slightly exceeded it, so was looking for any possible indicators.

[Spectator]

Guru's,

Are we 100% sure, in the first bulletin of last quarter we can make a clear indication on where the PD date reach at the end of the FY? or what if we see similar bulletin and DD what we had seen last month over the next month too(like not containing much information to make a 100% correct analysis). In that case we still cann't confirm 100% where the PD date reach at the end of the FY? Am I correct, Pls clarify me on this if am wrong.NOV2007,

At best, it can only be indicative.

There are several ways date movement could be approached, so nothing would have any certainty. Obviously, a large movement would give better vibes than a small one.

[qesehmk]

I agree. Moreover the uncertainty goes beyond last bulletin of the year into first quarter of next year since it is quite possible that CO makes a very large move in last month and so not all folks with then current PDs may be able to get through in the remaining quota.
NOV2007,

At best, it can only be indicative.

There are several ways date movement could be approached, so nothing would have any certainty. Obviously, a large movement would give better vibes than a small one.

[sbhagwat2000]

I agree. Moreover the uncertainty goes beyond last bulletin of the year into first quarter of next year since it is quite possible that CO makes a very large move in last month and so not folks can get through in the remaining quota.

the first movement is always conservative. Look at past july movements. So I wont bet anything beyond DEC 2004 in July. The biggest movement will be august

[qesehmk]

I was saying it could be anything. Common sense tells that generally Jul bulletin should start showing movement. But past is random. So I wouldn't bet anyway. The whole preadjudicated cases have allowed CO to withhold any movement right upto last moment in September. So he could very well wait till september and then make a movement in September.


the first movement is always conservative. Look at past july movements. So I wont bet anything beyond DEC 2004 in July. The biggest movement will be august

[NOV2007]

Thanks for clarification Spec/Qeseh.

Qeseh,

Based on your comment, I conclude that people with EB2PD(Straight)/EB3-EB2 Porting people filing for AOS this year cann't get GC for sure. All they can get is EAD by waiting 6 more months after their PD is current. People who filed for AOS last year i.e. in 2012 might be the lucky ones to sail through this year. I guess by the end of this FY there may not be much difference between EB3I and EB2I, I guess. This is a very complicated situation for EB2I too like EB3I. All we can do is hope for the best in the coming days.



I was saying it could be anything. Common sense tells that generally Jul bulletin should start showing movement. But past is random. So I wouldn't bet anyway. The whole preadjudicated cases have allowed CO to withhold any movement right upto last moment in September. So he could very well wait till september and then make a movement in September.

[qesehmk]

Do you mean to say you haven't filed a 485 yet?
Thanks for clarification Spec/Qeseh.

Qeseh,

Based on your comment, I conclude that people with EB2PD(Straight)/EB3-EB2 Porting people filing for AOS this year cann't get GC for sure. All they can get is EAD by waiting 6 more months after their PD is current. People who filed for AOS last year i.e. in 2012 might be the lucky ones to sail through this year. I guess by the end of this FY there may not be much difference between EB3I and EB2I, I guess. This is a very complicated situation for EB2I too like EB3I. All we can do is hope for the best in the coming days.

[joemontana]

Hello Gurus,

Can someone explain to me why Mexico is getting over 140k GC per year? I thought there was a limit of 7% per country. The rate for Mexico is too high, India's numbers are not even half of that.

http://www.dhs.gov/publication/us-legal-permanent-residents-2012

[Spectator]

Thanks for clarification Spec/Qeseh.

Qeseh,

Based on your comment, I conclude that people with EB2PD(Straight)/EB3-EB2 Porting people filing for AOS this year cann't get GC for sure. All they can get is EAD by waiting 6 more months after their PD is current. People who filed for AOS last year i.e. in 2012 might be the lucky ones to sail through this year. I guess by the end of this FY there may not be much difference between EB3I and EB2I, I guess. This is a very complicated situation for EB2I too like EB3I. All we can do is hope for the best in the coming days.NOV2007,

I think it is fair to say that anyone with an approved EB2 I-140 who needs to file a new I-1485 when dates become Current for their PD is unlikely to receive an I-485 approval this FY. I believe most people hold that view.

I didn't quite understand your EAD comment. Those filing an I-485 will receive an EAD as quickly as it is processed - anywhere between 1-4 months. They don't have to wait 6 months after the PD is Current.

People who already have a pending and pre-adjudicated I-485 (whether filed in 2012 or 2007) have an equal chance of approval if their PD becomes Current, their case is picked up by an IO and they do not receive a RFE. The later they become Current, the somewhat less chance they have of their case being picked by an IO, particularly if they only become Current in September.

By September, there will be a big difference between EB2-I and EB3-I Cut Off Dates. The best EB3-I can hope for is a date in 2003, whereas EB2-I dates may end in 2008.

[sbhagwat2000]

NOV2007,

I think it is fair to say that anyone with an approved EB2 I-140 who needs to file a new I-1485 when dates become Current for their PD is unlikely to receive an I-485 approval this FY. I believe most people hold that view.

I didn't quite understand your EAD comment. Those filing an I-485 will receive an EAD as quickly as it is processed - anywhere between 1-4 months. They don't have to wait 6 months after the PD is Current.

People who already have a pending and pre-adjudicated I-485 (whether filed in 2012 or 2007) have an equal chance of approval if their PD becomes Current, their case is picked up by an IO and they do not receive a RFE. The later they become Current, the somewhat less chance they have of their case being picked by an IO, particularly if they only become Current in September.

By September, there will be a big difference between EB2-I and EB3-I Cut Off Dates. The best EB3-I can hope for is a date in 2003, whereas EB2-I dates may end in 2008.

Spec,

IMO you are being too optimistic about EB2 I dates. Heres what I am thinking about the numbers

EB1 - 38000- 39000 - 6000 - 7000 SO ( I desperately hope its lower)

EB 2 WW - 43000 - -5000 ( This is what it looks like - with 34400 + 8600 from last year)

EB4 - 8000 - 2300 (Again I hope its lower)

EB5 - 1318

Total SO around 5500 to 6000 . With that dates moving to 2008 could be difficult.

[Spectator]

Hello Gurus,

Can someone explain to me why Mexico is getting over 140k GC per year? I thought there was a limit of 7% per country. The rate for Mexico is too high, India's numbers are not even half of that. Any inputs/ideas?

http://www.dhs.gov/publication/us-legal-permanent-residents-2012joemontana,

That number includes all LPR - IR (Cap exempt), FB and EB and several others. In F2A, all Mexico approvals are exempt from the numerical limitation.

Across FB & EB in FY2012, where the 7% limit applies, Mexico received 49.6k visas compared to the 44.9k that India received according to the DOS Visa Statistics. In FY2012, 7% was 26k. China, India and Mexico all exceeded the 7% limit on that basis.

China ------ 10.50%
India ------ 12.09%
Mexico ----- 13.36%
Philippines - 7.07%

However, adjusted for visas that actually count against the 7% limit, it is a different story.

China ------ 10.06%
India ------ 11.92%
Mexico ------ 4.85% (Mexico use by far the most visas under F2A)
Philippines - 6.56%

China and India were able to exceed 7% due to spillover visas.

[Spectator]

Spec,

IMO you are being too optimistic about EB2 I dates. Heres what I am thinking about the numbers

EB1 - 38000- 39000 - 6000 - 7000 SO ( I desperately hope its lower)

EB 2 WW - 43000 - -5000 ( This is what it looks like - with 34400 + 8600 from last year)

EB4 - 8000 - 2300 (Again I hope its lower)

EB5 - 1318

Total SO around 5500 to 6000 . With that dates moving to 2008 could be difficult.To be pedandic, I did not say that dates would move to 2008. What I actually said may move to 2008.

SOme points to note.

EB2-WW allocation is about 39k so your calculation would result in (4)k SO, not (5)k.

If EB4 used 8k, then SO would be 3.2k, not 2.3k since the EB4 allocation is 11.2k.

That would give EB2-I about 10.1k total visas (I've deducted some for EB2-C).

I would agree that, even with a 25% contingency for unapproved cases, that would probably not be enough to move the Cut Off Dates to 2008.

I do think you are using the aggressive end of possible numbers which are resulting in low numbers for EB2-I, but they are not outside the realm of the possible. Historically, EB2-ROW (and probably M & P) only use 40% of normal approvals in September, so 43k might be slightly too high a number. If EB1 does come in that high, 2008 could be quite difficult to achieve.

[ChampU]

Spec,

IMO you are being too optimistic about EB2 I dates. Heres what I am thinking about the numbers

EB1 - 38000- 39000 - 6000 - 7000 SO ( I desperately hope its lower)

EB 2 WW - 43000 - -5000 ( This is what it looks like - with 34400 + 8600 from last year)

EB4 - 8000 - 2300 (Again I hope its lower)

EB5 - 1318

Total SO around 5500 to 6000 . With that dates moving to 2008 could be difficult.


Per my understanding:
Along with SO of 5.5-6k, EB2I can expect anywhere between 7.5-11.5k (11.5k being absolute best case scenario where EB2-ROw does not take any FB visas) from the 18k FB visa allocation.. That makes total SO of about 13-17k..Subtract about 6k porting and net SO is 7-11k.. Add to that 1.3k from remaining regular quota.. So EB2-I can expect about 8-12k visas.. Anything more than 8k would take the dates into 2008..
If porting is 7.5k(per Matt's calculations), we have 7-11k Visas and the dates would at least hit Mid-Dec 2007..

Thoughts?

[willywonka]

Hello Good Morning Everyone.
Gurus - Spec, Q, Kanmani, Teddy, Kochu, Veni, Viz, etc...I missed reading your posts. I just want you to know that I admire you guys for what you do. I have been in hibernation but woke up a couple of days ago to catch up on EB2I things. I just wanted to put my thoughts out here and on trackitt to get further insight. I just feel like I am missing something, don't know what. Is the situation really that grim that if it wasn't for the FB spillover, we are looking at possible retrogression in almost all EB categories?


The Good: The spillover from FB (18k), Low demand for EB2C for 2008
The Bad: The rise in demand across all EB categories (EB5, EB2ROW, EB4, EB1 in order of %rise I believe) and Porting (I believe the total porting for FY2013 is between 5k-6k)
The Ugly: CIR. Yes, I decided to call it ugly because of several reasons. a)Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity...especially when it comes to most of the present congress and the morons who put them there. This bill is NOT going to pass. I will be happy if it does but it wont. b)what it can be potentially but what it will be finally, and the length of time it takes to get there if it does. c)For political reasons, they had to hold us legal immigrants hostage so that they can get some traction on legalizing illegal immigrants !!! Really ? Does their depravity know no bounds ? Argh!!!

Anyway, here is a closer look at spillover to EB2I:
(FB spillover allocation is based on this article. http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb-category-to-receive-18000-additional.html )

FB:~5100
EB5 - no spillover and more over its going to suck away ~1300 from FB spillover. Net: 0
EB2ROW - no spillover and it is probably going to suck away ~4k from FB spillover. Net: -4000
EB4 - may yield ~2k spillover plus give back all ~1300 from FB spillover. Net: 3300
EB1 - no spillover but will probably give back all ~5100 from FB spillover. Net: 5100
EB3 - as usual a black hole. Net: 0
Chinese Share of spillover - Net: 0

Total spillover for EB2I: 5100 + 0 -4000 + 3300 + 5100 + 0 - 0 = 9500

Assuming the monthly spillover has taken care of all the regular quota (2800) and any pre Sep 2004 porting cases in the next three months, when I apply a spillover of 9500 to the current demand, it should easily clear January 2008. So my estimate is that the date will land some where in Feb 2008 by the end of this FY. I wish that it will clear at least all of 2008 so that me and my buddies can get our green cards but that doesn't seem possible. Even my best case scenario doesn't go past Sep 2008.

I think the date movement in July and August bulletins will be small (numbers wise, not timeframe wise...say up to Sep 2007) and then a big leap to Feb 2008 in Sep bulletin. The dates are going to retrogress again to say Jan 2005 once the fresh porting demand materializes in Q1 of FY 2014. I think porting impact is going to be very bad next FY, but that's a story for next FY.

I would be honored if you rip my post apart.
Thanks Guys !!!

[Spectator]

Per my understanding:
Along with SO of 5.5-6k, EB2I can expect anywhere between 8-12k from the 18k FB visa allocation.. That makes total SO of about 13.5-18k.. Subtract about 6k porting and net SO is 7.5-12k.. Anything more than 8k would take the dates into 2008..
If porting is 7.5k(per Matt's calculations), we have 6- 10.5k SO and the dates would at least hit Oct 2007..ChampU,


sbhagwat2000's figures already include the numbers from FB.

[indiani]

Per my understanding:
Along with SO of 5.5-6k, EB2I can expect anywhere between 8-12k from the 18k FB visa allocation.. That makes total SO of about 13.5-18k.. Subtract about 6k porting and net SO is 7.5-12k.. Anything more than 8k would take the dates into 2008..
If porting is 7.5k(per Matt's calculations), we have 6- 10.5k SO and the dates would at least hit Oct 2007..

when calculating SO, please note that FB is already allocated across all EB.

So its probably less confusing if everyone uses same method of SO ( i.e from other EB) (including the extra quota which is added to each one).

EB1 and 4 are the only categories we hope to receive spillover for sure and perhaps a very small spill over from EB 5. EB-WW might give very small or NO spillover.

While it is impossible to know how much spillover will be available by the end of the last quarter, also is unknown when CO will make the movements, and if FIFO will be followed.

Apart from applicants before 2007, and early 2007, for most of us it is still a chance.

[MATT2012]

Spec,

IMO you are being too optimistic about EB2 I dates. Heres what I am thinking about the numbers

EB1 - 38000- 39000 - 6000 - 7000 SO ( I desperately hope its lower)

EB 2 WW - 43000 - -5000 ( This is what it looks like - with 34400 + 8600 from last year)

EB4 - 8000 - 2300 (Again I hope its lower)

EB5 - 1318

Total SO around 5500 to 6000 . With that dates moving to 2008 could be difficult.

I do think that, your estimate is almost sure shot , except I could differ slightly on EB5 numbers. Anyways, we have almost reached the last quarter game, and we do not have many more predictive indicators, except from the June end AILA meeting.

These are my thoughts on few points discussed above:
a) I do think that dates will end in early part of 2008.
b) Regarding a new I-485 filed from July getting approved this fiscal, very slim chance.
c) Date movement- I do think that advantages of moving dates byJuly/ August, outweighs the advantage of making the big move in September. To Q's point, they could do all in one month as most cases are preadjudicated. In that case it will be a bigger jump.
d) Retrogression next fiscal: Aprox 2+ years from where EB3I reaches by end of this fiscal.Need a little more clarity, but a general estimate.
e) Porting- I understand that adjudicating a porting case is very similar and the only extra activity is re-classification of I-485.But, I think that existing pre-adjudicated cases will have a slight lead over porting cases. The time lag may not be huge, it could be a week or two. it is possible that the week or two differece may impact some percentage of porting applications.

[ChampU]

when calculating SO, please note that FB is already allocated across all EB.

So its probably less confusing if everyone uses same method of SO ( i.e from other EB) (including the extra quota which is added to each one).

EB1 and 4 are the only categories we hope to receive spillover for sure and perhaps a very small spill over from EB 5. EB-WW might give very small or NO spillover.

While it is impossible to know how much spillover will be available by the end of the last quarter, also is unknown when CO will make the movements, and if FIFO will be followed.

Apart from applicants before 2007, and early 2007, for most of us it is still a chance.

My apologies, friends..

[qesehmk]

willywonka - you have very good grasp of the dynamic. Thanks for a simple and lucid post. I guess I will add EBROW porting into ugly and probably upgrade EB1 to possible "Good". EB5 I will definitely put into good column since I would fully expect them to yield at least 3K. Overall I do think that based on EBROW porting dynamic - your Feb 2008 could be come worst case scenario. But I will reiterate that 2007 is a foregone conclusion. Anybody from 2007 should stop worrying. 2008 Mar-Sep is where the uncertainty lies. Anybody beyond Sep 2008 - has almost no chance. Just my quick 2 cents. Thanks again.
Hello Good Morning Everyone.
Gurus - Spec, Q, Kanmani, Teddy, Kochu, Veni, Viz, etc...I missed reading your posts. I just want you to know that I admire you guys for what you do. I have been in hibernation but woke up a couple of days ago to catch up on EB2I things. I just wanted to put my thoughts out here and on trackitt to get further insight. I just feel like I am missing something, don't know what. Is the situation really that grim that if it wasn't for the FB spillover, we are looking at possible retrogression in almost all EB categories?


The Good: The spillover from FB (18k), Low demand for EB2C for 2008
The Bad: The rise in demand across all EB categories (EB5, EB2ROW, EB4, EB1 in order of %rise I believe) and Porting (I believe the total porting for FY2013 is between 5k-6k)
The Ugly: CIR. Yes, I decided to call it ugly because of several reasons. a)Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity...especially when it comes to most of the present congress and the morons who put them there. This bill is NOT going to pass. I will be happy if it does but it wont. b)what it can be potentially but what it will be finally, and the length of time it takes to get there if it does. c)For political reasons, they had to hold us legal immigrants hostage so that they can get some traction on legalizing illegal immigrants !!! Really ? Does their depravity know no bounds ? Argh!!!

Anyway, here is a closer look at spillover to EB2I:
(FB spillover allocation is based on this article. http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb-category-to-receive-18000-additional.html )

FB:~5100
EB5 - no spillover and more over its going to suck away ~1300 from FB spillover. Net: 0
EB2ROW - no spillover and it is probably going to suck away ~4k from FB spillover. Net: -4000
EB4 - may yield ~2k spillover plus give back all ~1300 from FB spillover. Net: 3300
EB1 - no spillover but will probably give back all ~5100 from FB spillover. Net: 5100
EB3 - as usual a black hole. Net: 0
Chinese Share of spillover - Net: 0

Total spillover for EB2I: 5100 + 0 -4000 + 3300 + 5100 + 0 - 0 = 9500

Assuming the monthly spillover has taken care of all the regular quota (2800) and any pre Sep 2004 porting cases in the next three months, when I apply a spillover of 9500 to the current demand, it should easily clear January 2008. So my estimate is that the date will land some where in Feb 2008 by the end of this FY. I wish that it will clear at least all of 2008 so that me and my buddies can get our green cards but that doesn't seem possible. Even my best case scenario doesn't go past Sep 2008.

I think the date movement in July and August bulletins will be small (numbers wise, not timeframe wise...say up to Sep 2007) and then a big leap to Feb 2008 in Sep bulletin. The dates are going to retrogress again to say Jan 2005 once the fresh porting demand materializes in Q1 of FY 2014. I think porting impact is going to be very bad next FY, but that's a story for next FY.

I would be honored if you rip my post apart.
Thanks Guys !!!

[Spectator]

Hello Good Morning Everyone.
Gurus - Spec, Q, Kanmani, Teddy, Kochu, Veni, Viz, etc...I missed reading your posts. I just want you to know that I admire you guys for what you do. I have been in hibernation but woke up a couple of days ago to catch up on EB2I things. I just wanted to put my thoughts out here and on trackitt to get further insight. I just feel like I am missing something, don't know what. Is the situation really that grim that if it wasn't for the FB spillover, we are looking at possible retrogression in almost all EB categories?


The Good: The spillover from FB (18k), Low demand for EB2C for 2008
The Bad: The rise in demand across all EB categories (EB5, EB2ROW, EB4, EB1 in order of %rise I believe) and Porting (I believe the total porting for FY2013 is between 5k-6k)
The Ugly: CIR. Yes, I decided to call it ugly because of several reasons. a)Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity...especially when it comes to most of the present congress and the morons who put them there. This bill is NOT going to pass. I will be happy if it does but it wont. b)what it can be potentially but what it will be finally, and the length of time it takes to get there if it does. c)For political reasons, they had to hold us legal immigrants hostage so that they can get some traction on legalizing illegal immigrants !!! Really ? Does their depravity know no bounds ? Argh!!!

Anyway, here is a closer look at spillover to EB2I:
(FB spillover allocation is based on this article. http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb-category-to-receive-18000-additional.html )

FB:~5100
EB5 - no spillover and more over its going to suck away ~1300 from FB spillover. Net: 0
EB2ROW - no spillover and it is probably going to suck away ~4k from FB spillover. Net: -4000
EB4 - may yield ~2k spillover plus give back all ~1300 from FB spillover. Net: 3300
EB1 - no spillover but will probably give back all ~5100 from FB spillover. Net: 5100
EB3 - as usual a black hole. Net: 0
Chinese Share of spillover - Net: 0

Total spillover for EB2I: 5100 + 0 -4000 + 3300 + 5100 + 0 - 0 = 9500

Assuming the monthly spillover has taken care of all the regular quota (2800) and any pre Sep 2004 porting cases in the next three months, when I apply a spillover of 9500 to the current demand, it should easily clear January 2008. So my estimate is that the date will land some where in Feb 2008 by the end of this FY. I wish that it will clear at least all of 2008 so that me and my buddies can get our green cards but that doesn't seem possible. Even my best case scenario doesn't go past Sep 2008.

I think the date movement in July and August bulletins will be small (numbers wise, not timeframe wise...say up to Sep 2007) and then a big leap to Feb 2008 in Sep bulletin. The dates are going to retrogress again to say Jan 2005 once the fresh porting demand materializes in Q1 of FY 2014. I think porting impact is going to be very bad next FY, but that's a story for next FY.

I would be honored if you rip my post apart.
Thanks Guys !!!willywonka,

Thanks for your post. I have no intention of ripping it apart. Without FB numbers, this year would have been very grim indeed.

I would comment on this line:


Chinese Share of spillover - Net: 0

My reading of the various laws is that EB2-C would be entitled to 7% of any numbers that fall down from EB1, so they would use 588 visas based on your figures, as well as 360 of the 5,148 extra initially available to EB2. That would give them 2,803 + 360 + 588 = 3,751 total visas.

EB1 using 40k visas is quite an aggressive prediction.

Given some of the problems EB5 is experiencing, they may not use the full 11.2k available to them. Even so, I don't expect them to provide huge numbers either.

Let's use your figures anyway.

Total EB2-I number is 9,500 + 2,803 = 12,303 visas.

I think you are assuming that the current Demand Data includes all porting applications. I don't believe that is the case and we are going to see the effect of a lot more (they won't appear in the DD until dates retrogress again after becoming Current).

If every case were approved, I don't think that is enough to move into 2008, but given a healthy contingency for cases that are not approved, that number could move the Cut Off Dates to January/February 2008 depending on the size of porting.

But my guess is as good as yours!

[Spectator]

I do think that, your estimate is almost sure shot , except I could differ slightly on EB5 numbers. Anyways, we have almost reached the last quarter game, and we do not have many more predictive indicators, except from the June end AILA meeting.

These are my thoughts on few points discussed above:
a) I do think that dates will end in early part of 2008.
b) Regarding a new I-485 filed from July getting approved this fiscal, very slim chance.
c) Date movement- I do think that advantages of moving dates byJuly/ August, outweighs the advantage of making the big move in September. To Q's point, they could do all in one month as most cases are preadjudicated. In that case it will be a bigger jump.
d) Retrogression next fiscal: Aprox 2+ years from where EB3I reaches by end of this fiscal.Need a little more clarity, but a general estimate.
e) Porting- I understand that adjudicating a porting case is very similar and the only extra activity is re-classification of I-485.But, I think that existing pre-adjudicated cases will have a slight lead over porting cases. The time lag may not be huge, it could be a week or two. it is possible that the week or two difference may impact some percentage of porting applications.Matt,

I can't disagree with anything you have said.

My biggest doubt remains on how many visas EB1 will use. I currently have about a 4k range on that, which can make a big difference.

In fact, there are ranges on everything. Some are quite small, but cumulatively, they all add up to a much higher overall range and thus uncertainty.

[indiani]

Hello Good Morning Everyone.
Gurus - Spec, Q, Kanmani, Teddy, Kochu, Veni, Viz, etc...I missed reading your posts. I just want you to know that I admire you guys for what you do. I have been in hibernation but woke up a couple of days ago to catch up on EB2I things. I just wanted to put my thoughts out here and on trackitt to get further insight. I just feel like I am missing something, don't know what. Is the situation really that grim that if it wasn't for the FB spillover, we are looking at possible retrogression in almost all EB categories?


The Good: The spillover from FB (18k), Low demand for EB2C for 2008
The Bad: The rise in demand across all EB categories (EB5, EB2ROW, EB4, EB1 in order of %rise I believe) and Porting (I believe the total porting for FY2013 is between 5k-6k)
The Ugly: CIR. Yes, I decided to call it ugly because of several reasons. a)Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity...especially when it comes to most of the present congress and the morons who put them there. This bill is NOT going to pass. I will be happy if it does but it wont. b)what it can be potentially but what it will be finally, and the length of time it takes to get there if it does. c)For political reasons, they had to hold us legal immigrants hostage so that they can get some traction on legalizing illegal immigrants !!! Really ? Does their depravity know no bounds ? Argh!!!

Anyway, here is a closer look at spillover to EB2I:
(FB spillover allocation is based on this article. http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb-category-to-receive-18000-additional.html )

FB:~5100
EB5 - no spillover and more over its going to suck away ~1300 from FB spillover. Net: 0
EB2ROW - no spillover and it is probably going to suck away ~4k from FB spillover. Net: -4000
EB4 - may yield ~2k spillover plus give back all ~1300 from FB spillover. Net: 3300
EB1 - no spillover but will probably give back all ~5100 from FB spillover. Net: 5100
EB3 - as usual a black hole. Net: 0
Chinese Share of spillover - Net: 0

Total spillover for EB2I: 5100 + 0 -4000 + 3300 + 5100 + 0 - 0 = 9500

Assuming the monthly spillover has taken care of all the regular quota (2800) and any pre Sep 2004 porting cases in the next three months, when I apply a spillover of 9500 to the current demand, it should easily clear January 2008. So my estimate is that the date will land some where in Feb 2008 by the end of this FY. I wish that it will clear at least all of 2008 so that me and my buddies can get our green cards but that doesn't seem possible. Even my best case scenario doesn't go past Sep 2008.

I think the date movement in July and August bulletins will be small (numbers wise, not timeframe wise...say up to Sep 2007) and then a big leap to Feb 2008 in Sep bulletin. The dates are going to retrogress again to say Jan 2005 once the fresh porting demand materializes in Q1 of FY 2014. I think porting impact is going to be very bad next FY, but that's a story for next FY.

I would be honored if you rip my post apart.
Thanks Guys !!!

DD prior to Jan 2008 is 7925
Porting which might happen after dates move apprx. 5K
Total Demand approx 12K (assuming 1k of porters not getting GC)

If SO is apprx. 10K, I do not see a scenario where the dates will clear even the latter part of 2007.
Please correct me if I am missing something.

( I personally believe that the SO might be bit higher probably 12K-14K based on the hope that EB1 and EB2-WW might not consume as much and CO can always internally stop issuing GC to EB1/EB2 WW in last 2 weeks of sept.)

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,

I don't think the 43k number is aggressive. Look at it in two ways - 34k + 8600 from last yr gives you 43k. But also from trackitt trends- 26k from first 6 mos + normal allocation for the next 2 quarters will give you 43 k. Now I hope it's less and trackitt trends are overestimating similar to FY 2009. Eb1 may be aggressive in my calcs. I think a realistic number could be 35 to 36 k. Lets see how it plays out. Some official word would have been good

[Spectator]

Spec,

I don't think the 43k number is aggressive. Look at it in two ways - 34k + 8600 from last yr gives you 43k. But also from trackitt trends- 26k from first 6 mos + normal allocation for the next 2 quarters will give you 43 k. Now I hope it's less and trackitt trends are overestimating similar to FY 2009. Eb1 may be aggressive in my calcs. I think a realistic number could be 35 to 36 k. Lets see how it plays out. Some official word would have been goodsbhagwat2000,

Good for your for sticking to your guns!

I also have a figure for EB2-WW of over 40k, so we are only talking about 1-2k in our viewpoint. As I said previously, September approvals for EB2-WW in a normal year drop to 40% of other months - probably because September is essentially only a 2 week month (visas run out at that point).

Historically, I tend to slightly overestimate EB2-WW, so I don't feel comfortable using a figure as high as 43k. As you point out, there is always some uncertainty as to the Trackitt ratio to use.

We are estimating EB1 in an almost complete vacuum of information. I am also hoping it will be mid 30's rather than nearer 40k. Frankly, I have no clear idea what the actual figure might be.

I would also like to hear some official word on EB1 progress. I'm not confident that wish will be fulfilled.

[suninphx]

Spec,

I don't think the 43k number is aggressive. Look at it in two ways - 34k + 8600 from last yr gives you 43k. But also from trackitt trends- 26k from first 6 mos + normal allocation for the next 2 quarters will give you 43 k. Now I hope it's less and trackitt trends are overestimating similar to FY 2009. Eb1 may be aggressive in my calcs. I think a realistic number could be 35 to 36 k. Lets see how it plays out. Some official word would have been good



8600 from last year - is this official number? If yes, source please....

[sbhagwat2000]

8600 from last year - is this official number? If yes, source please....

not an official number. Its an assumption since 8600 is normal quarterly allocation.

[qesehmk]

Spec - for a second I thought you are CO! :rolleyes: Tell me you aren't.

Historically, I tend to slightly overestimate EB2-WW.

About sbhagwat's calculations ... i think what he is missing is the principle of steady flow in a system. EB1 is a category where there is continuous flow and no backlog. So what you see as approx 10K backlog is the normal cases waiting to be adjudicated at any point of time. So that shouldn't be counted towards full 2013 demand. Yes they will go up and down by 2-3K one year to next. But they can never go to zero.

Thought another way - you can look at them as 10/40 = 3 months worth backlog which on an average represents 3-4 months of waiting time for an EB1.

[suninphx]

not an official number. Its an assumption since 8600 is normal quarterly allocation.

Ok got it.

My calculations differ way too much from your and ofcourse Spectators calculations - so I will leave it at that.

[Kanmani]

Spec - for a second I thought you are CO! :rolleyes: Tell me you aren't.



I wish he is given a chance to be an acting chief a single day, we can expect paragraphs and paragraphs of brief from him.

Chinese are expecting India to join them at the end of this FY, their target PD is same as Q's September 2008. They think there is no retrogression for EB2C hereafter.


Ok got it.

My calculations differ way too much from your and ofcourse Spectators calculations - so I will leave it at that.

Sun, same here :)

[suninphx]

I wish he is given a chance to be an acting chief a single day, we can expect paragraphs and paragraphs of brief from him.

Chinese are expecting India to join them at the end of this FY, their target PD is same as Q's September 2008. They think there is no retrogression for EB2C hereafter.



Sun, same here :)

Kanmani - ;). I know we have a common view on this.

[Spectator]

Kanmani - ;). I know we have a common view on this.Suninphx,

May we hear your latest thinking?

I won't comment, if you prefer.

I do think it is important to hear all views and I respect both Kanmani and your views.

Send me a PM if you prefer and really don't want to air your thoughts on the forum.

[vizcard]

Chinese are expecting India to join them at the end of this FY, their target PD is same as Q's September 2008. They think there is no retrogression for EB2C hereafter.

Dont get my hopes up !!! :)

[bieber]

I wish he is given a chance to be an acting chief a single day, we can expect paragraphs and paragraphs of brief from him.

Chinese are expecting India to join them at the end of this FY, their target PD is same as Q's September 2008. They think there is no retrogression for EB2C hereafter.



Sun, same here :)

Do you know if that's a prediction or they heard from CO (I remember some of them communicating with CO in the past)

[qesehmk]

Chinese are expecting India to join them at the end of this FY, their target PD is same as Q's September 2008.
Please allow me to clarify my position on this. I no longer consider Sep 2008 as average case scenario. To me that is best case scenario now.

[indiani]

Please allow me to clarify my position on this. I no longer consider Sep 2008 as average case scenario. To me that is best case scenario now.

Q, I think early 2013 is best case scenario,
Its seems very difficult to imagine it will cross march 2008

[gcpursuit]

Assuming that CO decides to make a big jump in September, what would the dates be for EB2-I? I know the chances of it happening is very minimal but want to know how big a jump that will be if it were to happen.

[willywonka]

Thanks Q, Spec and Indiani for your comments on my numbers. When I reevaluate, I am still landing somewhere in Q1 of CY 2008. Hopefully we will all have some clarity soon with July bulletin or some CO comments.

Kanmani, re:Eb2I catching up with Eb2C, you got my hopes up too :-)
It will be a miracle if the tortoise does catchup with the hare in the real world.

[dec2007]

Please allow me to clarify my position on this. I no longer consider Sep 2008 as average case scenario. To me that is best case scenario now.

My pd is dec31, 2007. I'm trying to understand the procedure for applications pickup for theoretical movements in PD.

Lets say in August bulletin (effective September 1st), dates move to Jan 1, 2008. So from September 1st onwards applications below jan 1, 2008 will be reviewed.

So I will have only one month for visa date assignment? because we are expecting September bulletin (effective october 1st), dates will be retrogressed.

i have 485 RFE that needs to be cleared in that one month. is my understanding correct?

[qesehmk]

Dec 2007 - the current retrogression is purely technical. Fundamentally if the dates move to Q1 2008 - then that's where they will stay after Sep 2013.
So you don't have to worrry about retrogression. Retro should happen if we see dates in later part of 2008.


My pd is dec31, 2007. I'm trying to understand the procedure for applications pickup for theoretical movements in PD.

Lets say in August bulletin (effective September 1st), dates move to Jan 1, 2008. So from September 1st onwards applications below jan 1, 2008 will be reviewed.

So I will have only one month for visa date assignment? because we are expecting September bulletin (effective october 1st), dates will be retrogressed.

i have 485 RFE that needs to be cleared in that one month. is my understanding correct?

[dec2007]

Dec 2007 - the current retrogression is purely technical. Fundamentally if the dates move to Q1 2008 - then that's where they will stay after Sep 2013.
So you don't have to worrry about retrogression. Retro should happen if we see dates in later part of 2008.

I think I'm confused.

Lets say in August bulletin, dates move to jan 1, 2008 and in september bulletin, dates move to 2006 or "U".

Is my understanding correct that I have only one month of window (Sept 1 - Sep 30) to be greened.

Thanks

[qesehmk]

Yes .... but there is no way they will move forward in august and then backward in sep. If at all they will move back in October.

And in this particular situation - if the dates move upto Q1 2008 - I don't think they will retro at all.


I think I'm confused.

Lets say in August bulletin, dates move to jan 1, 2008 and in september bulletin, dates move to 2006 or "U".

Is my understanding correct that I have only one month of window (Sept 1 - Sep 30) to be greened.

Thanks

[dec2007]

Yes .... but there is no way they will move forward in august and then backward in sep. If at all they will move back in October.

And in this particular situation - if the dates move upto Q1 2008 - I don't think they will retro at all.

Ok great. Thank you for quick reply and clarification.

[Spectator]

Dec 2007 - the current retrogression is purely technical. Fundamentally if the dates move to Q1 2008 - then that's where they will stay after Sep 2013.
So you don't have to worrry about retrogression. Retro should happen if we see dates in later part of 2008.Q,

Perhaps I am being dense, or I don't fully understand what you are saying. Perhaps you can expand on your argument.

As I see it, retrogression to date in FY2013 is a function of CO only using the initial allocation available to EB2-I. That has allowed between 250-285 visas to be allocated to EB2-I each month to date.

Since there have been sufficient cases with a PD before September 2004 to use the numbers available, the Cut Off Date has remained at 01SEP04.

Cut Off Dates will accelerate rapidly when spillover is released, hopefully into 2008.

Won't the same initial conditions be true when FY2014 starts in October 2013?

CO will revert to only using the initial allocation of 2,803 visas, or 252 per month.

Even leaving new porting demand aside, there will be more applicants ready for approval, whose cases were not picked up when they became Current at the end of FY2013 or have replied to a RFE issued towards the end of FY2013, than visas available.

To only use 252 per month, the Cut Off Date will have to retrogress substantially from whatever it reaches at the end of FY2013. How far will depend on porting demand from earlier PD years.

The only way I see the Cut Off Date can be sustained in 2008 is if potential spillover numbers for FY2014 are applied from October 2013 itself. I don't think anyone believes that will happen.

I am confused.

[Spectator]

Yes .... but there is no way they will move forward in august and then backward in sep. If at all they will move back in October.

And in this particular situation - if the dates move upto Q1 2008 - I don't think they will retro at all.Q,

I think part of the confusion lies in that dec2007 is using the date when the VB is published, not when it becomes effective. So, when dec2007 talks about August, they actually mean the September VB and September refers to the October VB.

dec2007, please correct me if I am wrong.

[qesehmk]

Spec - you need to consider the source of the numbers from 2004. They are no longer original EB2. They are all portings now. And of course that is not a perennial source.
But granted - your logic is that then instead of 2004 - it should move to 2005.

If so - I would agree .. but then that's what I call not based on fundamentals and holding dates back purely on technicality of 2800 quota. The reality is EB2I consistently receives over 10K visas (even in a bad year) and so holding dates so back in history only serves to bring people's morale down. I think VO is insensitive stupid and callous in doing so. Callous because then they are not doing quarterly spillovers as required by law. With those quarterly spillovers - EB2I dates would not linger so back.

Anyway .. but that could be a philosophical difference between us. I guess I get source of your confusion - that you are assuming EB3 porting (prior to X date) to be greater than EB2 monthly quota which then holds the dates back. As I said - I do not think that source is granted nor I assume that CO will not yield anything at all at end of each quarter which then requires for him not to retro in October - to the degree that you think he will.

[Kanmani]

Do you know if that's a prediction or they heard from CO (I remember some of them communicating with CO in the past) No, they didn't mention CO, they were in the middle of those 20K additional case discussion.


Dont get my hopes up !!! :)


Kanmani, re:Eb2I catching up with Eb2C, you got my hopes up too :-)
It will be a miracle if the tortoise does catchup with the hare in the real world.

Come-on guys! We have seen much more blood and battle than this. Initially we thought 18K FB is ours, then 13K FB + 13 K regular, then 13K alone, now just PD could barely cross 2007 !!!!

We are capable of more than this. That was just a copy & paste to let you guys know what they discuss about COD movement.

[Spectator]

Spec - you need to consider the source of the numbers from 2004. They are no longer original EB2. They are all portings now. And of course that is not a perennial source.
But granted - your logic is that then instead of 2004 - it should move to 2005.

If so - I would agree .. but then that's what I call not based on fundamentals and holding dates back purely on technicality of 2800 quota. The reality is EB2I consistently receives over 10K visas (even in a bad year) and so holding dates so back in history only serves to bring people's morale down. I think VO is insensitive stupid and callous in doing so. Callous because then they are not doing quarterly spillovers as required by law. With those quarterly spillovers - EB2I dates would not linger so back.

Anyway .. but that could be a philosophical difference between us. I guess I get source of your confusion - that you are assuming EB3 porting (prior to X date) to be greater than EB2 monthly quota which then holds the dates back. As I said - I do not think that source is granted nor I assume that CO will not yield anything at all at end of each quarter which then requires for him not to retro in October - to the degree that you think he will.Q,

Thanks.

I understand where you are coming from now.

I mentioned it would likely retrogress because clearly that is important to Dec2007 and could adversely affect when they receive an approval by nearly a year.

Philosophically, I understand where you are coming from. I don't think we will ever see a FY2012 pattern again. Perhaps some gentle, safe quarterly spillover.

This FY, even that was not possible, because EB2-WW needed any spare visas purely to allow them to catch up the backlog created last year.

[qesehmk]

Spec,

It's like quantum physics ... all possibilities exist. The question is which one of them will materialize. I will bet on dates not retrogressing.

p.s. - I always enjoy your posts Spec. I think you know that .... but reiteration can't hurt!
Q,

Thanks.

I understand where you are coming from now.

I mentioned it would likely retrogress because clearly that is important to Dec2007 and could adversely affect when they receive an approval by nearly a year.

Philosophically, I understand where you are coming from. I don't think we will ever see a FY2012 pattern again. Perhaps some gentle, safe quarterly spillover.

This FY, even that was not possible, because EB2-WW needed any spare visas purely to allow them to catch up the backlog created last year.

[longwait100]

I ditto that Spec, this year has been exceptionally bad for EB2I so far. Seems like CO was predetermined to hold back EB2I dates to payback for the blunder that he made in 2012.

I hope things start to turn around from the July VB onwards and the dates don't retro that much starting Oct.

My PD of Aug 2007 continues to wait to see the daylight...hope that will happen soon!

[dec2007]

Q,

I think part of the confusion lies in that dec2007 is using the date when the VB is published, not when it becomes effective. So, when dec2007 talks about August, they actually mean the September VB and September refers to the October VB.

dec2007, please correct me if I am wrong.

Spec,

This is what I'm assuming. Below PD date movements are just randomly picked to just state my question.

Bulletin that will be released in July 1st week (effective August 1st) : August 1, 2007
Bulletin that will be released in August 1st week ( effective Sep 1st) : Jan 1, 2008
Bulletin that will be released in September 1st week ( effective Oct 1st) : June 2006 or "U"

Now in above scenario, since my PD is Dec 31, 2007. I will have only one month (Sep 1st - Sep 30th) to be greened. Correct? Otherwise I have to wait almost until next SO season aka July 2014.

Is there a chance that starting from Oct 1st, the dates maynot retrogress or "U" for few more months.

Thanks,

[Spectator]

Spec,

It's like quantum physics ... all possibilities exist. The question is which one of them will materialize. I will bet on dates not retrogressing.

p.s. - I always enjoy your posts Spec. I think you know that .... but reiteration can't hurt!Q,

Never a truer word spoken!

Ditto about your posts.

We may hold some different views, but I have always said that is a good thing and I mean it. We look at things from different perspectives and it allows different ways to reach a prediction.

I've probably been at this too long. I realize my style can sound rather argumentative. No, does sound argumentative! I can't change that - I am what I am and this year has been the worst to date for information from official and semi-official sources. It is frustrating.

I do think it is a shame if that results in some people not posting their own predictions. For that, I do apologize.

Onwards and Upwards.

[NOV2007]

Dec2007,

if you read earlier posts on Qeseh/Spec, they are saying chances of PD date retrogressing is very slim after Oct1st(i.e. Sept VB). Spec, also mentioned the reason onto why we had almost no moment in EB2I PD movement from the begining of this year. What I understand from Qeseh earlier post that date will not retrogress less than Jan-2008. If that is the case you will have some time to resolve your RFE and get greened, you must be happy that you are in better state than me, I have NOV2007 PD and waiting to file I485 this time.:)


Spec,

This is what I'm assuming. Below PD date movements are just randomly picked to just state my question.

Bulletin that will be released in July 1st week (effective August 1st) : August 1, 2007
Bulletin that will be released in August 1st week ( effective Sep 1st) : Jan 1, 2008
Bulletin that will be released in September 1st week ( effective Oct 1st) : June 2006 or "U"

Now in above scenario, since my PD is Dec 31, 2007. I will have only one month (Sep 1st - Sep 30th) to be greened. Correct? Otherwise I have to wait almost until next SO season aka July 2014.

Is there a chance that starting from Oct 1st, the dates maynot retrogress or "U" for few more months.

Thanks,

[Spectator]

Spec,

This is what I'm assuming. Below PD date movements are just randomly picked to just state my question.

Bulletin that will be released in July 1st week (effective August 1st) : August 1, 2007
Bulletin that will be released in August 1st week ( effective Sep 1st) : Jan 1, 2008
Bulletin that will be released in September 1st week ( effective Oct 1st) : June 2006 or "U"

Now in above scenario, since my PD is Dec 31, 2007. I will have only one month (Sep 1st - Sep 30th) to be greened. Correct? Otherwise I have to wait almost until next SO season aka July 2014.

Is there a chance that starting from Oct 1st, the dates maynot retrogress or "U" for few more months.

Thanks,dec2007,

For future reference, most people refer to the VB by the month it takes effect, so it is simpler just to say August VB, September VB, October VB etc. It also saves some typing. :)

Using the dates you have chosen, yes you are only likely to have one month to be approved before dates retrogress before your PD in the October VB. I know Q feels otherwise. It would be a lottery for you - I can't put it any other way.

In many ways, I hope he sets the July VB at 01JAN07.

CO has always been saying that he has no idea of porting numbers. IF he moved the date to 01JAN07 in the July VB, he would get a much better idea of the porting numbers. That would be helpful for future reference and might allow for (more accurate) quarterly movement in future years.

[qesehmk]

Using the dates you have chosen, yes you are only likely to have one month to be approved before dates retrogress before your PD in the October VB. I know Q feels otherwise. It would be a lottery for you - I can't put it any other way.

I only said dates wont retro prior to Q1 2008 come Oct 2013. If GC's case is preadjudicated he should expect a GC by 20th Sep 2013. If he files after date become current - then it should take about 4 months.

[druvraj]

I only said dates wont retro prior to Q1 2008 come Oct 2013. If GC's case is preadjudicated he should expect a GC by 20th Sep 2013. If he files after date become current - then it should take about 4 months.

Q, Spec others,

By Q1 of 2008 are you guys saying jan, feb or march? I have my pd in feb.

I sincerely hope the dates cross well in 2008. Five+ years and waiting, kind of tired keeping track.
Druv

[Spectator]

I only said dates wont retro prior to Q1 2008 come Oct 2013. If GC's case is preadjudicated he should expect a GC by 20th Sep 2013. If he files after date become current - then it should take about 4 months.Q,

To be clear, the reason I said it will be a lottery is that more cases will be Current in September than there are visas available. Often numbers run out after about 2 weeks of September.

a) It is then luck of the draw whether a case is picked up before visa numbers run out.

b) Even if it is picked up and was previously pre-adjudicated, a RFE can still be issued, which would kill any chance of approval in FY2013.

I think (a) is the greater danger.

To be sure, as lotteries go, the odds are quite good for a clean case, but not a certainty. Quantum Uncertainty again!

[qesehmk]

Q,

To be clear, the reason I said it will be a lottery is that more cases will be Current in September than there are visas available. Often numbers run out after about 2 weeks of September.

a) It is then luck of the draw whether a case is picked up before visa numbers run out.

b) Even if it is picked up and was previously pre-adjudicated, a RFE can still be issued, which would kill any chance of approval in FY2013.

I think (a) is the greater danger.

Spec - I think what you mean is that --- CO will try to overshoot in order not to waste visas and as a result some people may not get GC.

Now that is certainly possible. However regardless of that becoming reality or not - I guarantee you that it won't be lottery. Why? Because of the large preadjudicated backlog which according to the law must be dealt with in order of priority date. So it won't be lottery.

RFE and all is reality only for a very small number of cases when things are at this stage. In fact if there was to be an RFE on those cases then it should've already been issued.

Third - and going back to the topic of overshooting. I would believe that CO has such a great visibility and understanding now of how many visas he is left with and how much ready backlog he has .... that he can move dates precisely to a point where he doesn't have to waste visa nor leave a large number of people high and dry.

Would you agree Spec?

p.s. - As per earlier question that druvraj raised ... to be clear - none of us know for sure. I would say somewhere in Q1 the dates should settle.

[dec2007]

Spec - I think what you mean is that --- CO will try to overshoot in order not to waste visas and as a result some people may not get GC.

Now that is certainly possible. However regardless of that becoming reality or not - I guarantee you that it won't be lottery. Why? Because of the large preadjudicated backlog which according to the law must be dealt with in order of priority date. So it won't be lottery.

RFE and all is reality only for a very small number of cases when things are at this stage. In fact if there was to be an RFE on those cases then it should've already been issued.

Third - and going back to the topic of overshooting. I would believe that CO has such a great visibility and understanding now of how many visas he is left with and how much ready backlog he has .... that he can move dates precisely to a point where he doesn't have to waste visa nor leave a large number of people high and dry.

Would you agree Spec?

p.s. - As per earlier question that druvraj raised ... to be clear - none of us know for sure. I would say somewhere in Q1 the dates should settle.

Q,
I was not aware of the rule that preadjudicated applications needs to be processed as per PD. thanks for info.
Anyways, when I spoke to visa officer on my Infopass appointment, he said my app is preadjudicated.

[dec2007]

Dec2007,

if you read earlier posts on Qeseh/Spec, they are saying chances of PD date retrogressing is very slim after Oct1st(i.e. Sept VB). Spec, also mentioned the reason onto why we had almost no moment in EB2I PD movement from the begining of this year. What I understand from Qeseh earlier post that date will not retrogress less than Jan-2008. If that is the case you will have some time to resolve your RFE and get greened, you must be happy that you are in better state than me, I have NOV2007 PD and waiting to file I485 this time.:)

Nov2007, I can understand your situation. Hang in there my friend...hope for the best.

Next Friday will answer lot of questions.

[indiani]

Q,
I was not aware of the rule that preadjudicated applications needs to be processed as per PD. thanks for info.
Anyways, when I spoke to visa officer on my Infopass appointment, he said my app is preadjudicated.

How to take infopass appointment to know if my application is pre-adjudicated, I have Nov 2007 EB2I PD and my response to RFE received in oct 2007, when I raised SR i got the reply that the application cannot be processed further b'cos of lack of visas (PD not current) .

[indiani]

I think retrogression most likely might happen next fiscal yr as there is no way CO would know that the amount of porting will not be more than the EB2I regular quota.
next year there might be very little FB spillover (like previous yrs), they just won't know about EB2WW and EB1 usage until atleast 6 months into the fiscal yr.

[dec2007]

How to take infopass appointment to know if my application is pre-adjudicated, I have Nov 2007 EB2I PD and my response to RFE received in oct 2007, when I raised SR i got the reply that the application cannot be processed further b'cos of lack of visas (PD not current) .

http://infopass.uscis.gov/

You can ask him if it is preadjudicated.

[qesehmk]

Yes dec2007 - that is the law that any extra visas should be allocated in order of PD for all eligible 485s.

But even otherwise for quota visas - same is true for all applications that fall under quota and are eligible for a visa.

Q,
I was not aware of the rule that preadjudicated applications needs to be processed as per PD. thanks for info.
Anyways, when I spoke to visa officer on my Infopass appointment, he said my app is preadjudicated.

[willywonka]

Gurus
I have a stupid question. The spike we saw in EB2Row during the last few months of last FY...does that have anything to do with EB2 ROWers panicking about the chances of HR3012 passing ?

If so, is there a chance for a similar pattern this FY now that CIR is about to go onto the senate floor in two weeks?

[indiani]

http://infopass.uscis.gov/

You can ask him if it is preadjudicated.

I already opened SR once and got reply.
here is the option that I might have to choose when I opned the site

"Case Services follow-up appointment - If it has been over 45 days since you contacted NCSC and have not received a response to your inquiry. You must bring the Service Request ID Number related to your inquiry to the appointment. "


But as I already received the response from them in email, is there any risk of choosing this option or else did u choose any other option?

[indiani]

Gurus
I have a stupid question. The spike we saw in EB2Row during the last few months of last FY...does that have anything to do with EB2 ROWers panicking about the chances of HR3012 passing ?

If so, is there a chance for a similar pattern this FY now that CIR is about to go onto the senate floor in two weeks?

No, the spike is due to retrogression of EB2WW, whether they panick or not wouldnt changed the fact that everyone would have applied at the earliet oppurtunity.

[vizcard]

No, the spike is due to retrogression of EB2WW, whether they panick or not wouldnt changed the fact that everyone would have applied at the earliet oppurtunity.


Gurus
I have a stupid question. The spike we saw in EB2Row during the last few months of last FY...does that have anything to do with EB2 ROWers panicking about the chances of HR3012 passing ?

If so, is there a chance for a similar pattern this FY now that CIR is about to go onto the senate floor in two weeks?

There was no spike per se. The retrogression was due to over allocation to EB2IC resulting in insufficient numbers for EB2ROW. There might have been some added urgency but not high enough to point to that as a factor.

[MATT2012]

Matt,


My biggest doubt remains on how many visas EB1 will use. I currently have about a 4k range on that, which can make a big difference.



Spec,
My worse case number for EB1 is 38K and best case is 33.5K. My Max number for visa issued for EB1 for first quarter is 11.3K and second quarter is 9.1K. I expect further drops in quarter III and quarter ** .

[Spectator]

Spec,
My worse case number for EB1 is 38K and best case is 33.5K. My Max number for visa issued for EB1 for first quarter is 11.3K and second quarter is 9.1K. I expect further drops in quarter III and quarter ** .Matt,

Thanks for sharing.

Spookily, my worst case figure (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1373-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2013-vs-FY2012) for the first half is also 20.4k.

Like you, I don't expect that to repeat in H2 and my range is also 34-38k.

Its reassuring to know that with the same data, you have arrived at the same conclusion.

[sbhagwat2000]

Matt,

Thanks for sharing.

Spookily, my worst case figure (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1373-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2013-vs-FY2012) for the first half is also 20.4k.

Like you, I don't expect that to repeat in H2 and my range is also 34-38k.

Its reassuring to know that with the same data, you have arrived at the same conclusion.

Spec,

I was looking at your cumulative numbers for EB2WW(as thats one category keeping me awake at night) and see that theres a chance that the numbers may end at 39K. so till end of may you have 27K. Last 4 months have seen 12 k approvals . So if current trend continues numbers may not cross 40K. Lets hope for that.

One question I had asked you earlier and you may or may not have insight - FY 2008 EB2WW had 48K approvals. I was trying to understand why that would have happened and I think that along with retrogression in 2007 another reason could be that DOL churned out stuck labor approvals for the past several years and all those must have been handled in 2008. Your thoughts? Just trying to analyse if that can happen again this year.

[indiani]

with only 9 days to go for the much anticipated July bulletin, if the dates don't move to atleast
jan 2007, then we might be facing perhaps a catastrophic situation where the CO might just waste visas or somehow there is data which almost none of us are aware of .
Even though remote possibility of making a 2 step movement ( like spec described before) of one major movements in august bulletin followed by some adjustment in september is possible, I highly doubt thats going to happen. (if that were to happen may be the CO will give in the predictions of july bulletin).
In short July bulletin is make or break for most of our hopes of getting GC.

[indiani]

with DD 7925 prior to Jan 2008 and possibility of additional Demand of porters being as high as 5K, is it possible that the dates might never reach 2008., Pls don't consider this as my prediction but somehow this appears to be in the list of possibilities at this time.

[Spectator]

Spec,

I was looking at your cumulative numbers for EB2WW(as thats one category keeping me awake at night) and see that theres a chance that the numbers may end at 39K. so till end of may you have 27K. Last 4 months have seen 12 k approvals . So if current trend continues numbers may not cross 40K. Lets hope for that.

One question I had asked you earlier and you may or may not have insight - FY 2008 EB2WW had 48K approvals. I was trying to understand why that would have happened and I think that along with retrogression in 2007 another reason could be that DOL churned out stuck labor approvals for the past several years and all those must have been handled in 2008. Your thoughts? Just trying to analyse if that can happen again this year.sbhagwat2000,

If you are talking about the figures in FACTS & DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1373-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2013-vs-FY2012), those cumulative figures are for ROW, not WW. They do not include Mexico or Philippines. The 4 month period includes months when the backlog was still being processed. I don't belive EB2-ROW will reach anywhere near to 40k, but EB2-WW might due to high EB2-P usage.

I think the very high figure in FY2008 was a spike that reflected the consequences of the LC backlog reduction effort that was set up. This resulted in a large number of long delayed LC applications (for all Countries) finally being Certified and I-140/I-485 being submitted. Pre FY2007, the EB2-WW approval numbers were low - that was probably artificial due to the very slow processing rate for LC at that time. That is not a factor anymore and FY2008 was a "catch up" year.

[sbhagwat2000]

sbhagwat2000,

If you are talking about the figures in FACTS & DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1373-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2013-vs-FY2012), those cumulative figures are for ROW, not WW. They do not include Mexico or Philippines. The 4 month period includes months when the backlog was still being processed. I don't belive EB2-ROW will reach anywhere near to 40k, but EB2-WW might due to high EB2-P usage.

I think the very high figure in FY2008 was a spike that reflected the consequences of the LC backlog reduction effort that was set up. This resulted in a large number of long delayed LC applications (for all Countries) finally being Certified and I-140/I-485 being submitted. Pre FY2007, the EB2-WW approval numbers were low - that was probably artificial due to the very slow processing rate for LC at that time. That is not a factor anymore and FY2008 was a "catch up" year.

Thanks for the Clarification. I am becoming more optimistic now of some movement in July bulletin. The only reason it will not move is CO is unclear about EB2 WW usage. Lets hope and pray for some movement - 8 more days to go

[indiani]

I just saw spec's predictions on page 1, i think even though he has mentioned SO of 0 from EB2WW, I suspect there might be 1-2K , at the sametime EB1 might not give 10K , in the end total SO might not change dramatically.
However on the update in april the range was quite large of 8-17K and if at all it turns out to be dramatically short on the lower end of the spectrum then we are dealing with a nightmare scenario.
Anyway we look at it, it is perhaps becoming the most awaiting bulletin ever.

[geeaarpee]

From the past, whenever there were massive FB SO, the final SOFAD EB2IC received were also huge - will that be the case this year too? Any thoughts?

I know there will be considerable amount of SOFAD this year for EB2IC, but will CO use that efficiently by moving dates in July - even one or two weeks should be fine - but I don't want to see that frustrating 1-Sep-04 date again - the worst date apart from the other September date which we all would like to forget about (the one that happened in 2001)...

[indiani]

From the past, whenever there were massive FB SO, the final SOFAD EB2IC received were also huge - will that be the case this year too? Any thoughts?

I know there will be considerable amount of SOFAD this year for EB2IC, but will CO use that efficiently by moving dates in July - even one or two weeks should be fine - but I don't want to see that frustrating 1-Sep-04 date again - the worst date apart from the other September date which we all would like to forget about (the one that happened in 2001)...

Even though having huge FB spillover is good news, the increased EB2WW and EB1 demands are the mitigating factors, so Its not easy to conclude just with previous FB spillovers and movements.

[indiani]

If july bulletin doesnt show movement atleast until summer 2007, I am planning to use AC21 , my question is can i just send AC21 letter from future employer even though I dont have any intent/plan to join them until GC is approved? I want to stay unemployed until GC.

even though this is the predictions thread, I didnt know how to look for AC21 thread (not sure if there is one)

[sbhagwat2000]

An interesting article about Eb5 visas.

http://usa-green-card.com/blog/index.php/tag/eb-5-visas/?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

Some important take aways -

1. Approvals have slowed this year because of fraud

2. If you look at the graphs in the article - max applications were made in 2011 which resulted in more approvals in 2012. But in 2012 itself applications were lower

Hopefully all this results in a surprise from EB5

[indiani]

An interesting article about Eb5 visas.

http://usa-green-card.com/blog/index.php/tag/eb-5-visas/?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

Some important take aways -

1. Approvals have slowed this year because of fraud

2. If you look at the graphs in the article - max applications were made in 2011 which resulted in more approvals in 2012. But in 2012 itself applications were lower

Hopefully all this results in a surprise from EB5

Thanks for the article, very informative.
This fiscal year at some point CO said that he is thinking about setting up a cut off date for EB5C but he changed his mind as the applications levelled off. even though not all applications are approved the same year, good percentage of them are, as you know its a temporary card for 2 years like the marriage greencard.

Unfortunately we just dont have a concrete number as to how many GC's are given away this fiscal year.

Unlike many who said there could be zero SO form EB5, i think there might be upto 2K.

overall there are so many unknowns at this point, instead of spending tireless amounts of time crunching everything, its better to wait for atleast July bulletin, until then I would rather prepare for bad news and make back up plans.

[geeaarpee]

Gurus - I have a question - is cross-chargeability a reason for high EB2/3Row porting - if that's the case, is it being reflected in EB2/3I demand or inventory?

[Spectator]

An interesting article about Eb5 visas.

http://usa-green-card.com/blog/index.php/tag/eb-5-visas/?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

Some important take aways -

1. Approvals have slowed this year because of fraud

2. If you look at the graphs in the article - max applications were made in 2011 which resulted in more approvals in 2012. But in 2012 itself applications were lower

Hopefully all this results in a surprise from EB5That's not quite correct. The description in the article is slightly misleading.

Step 1 refers to I-526. Max I-526 applications (which leads to use of EB5 visas after approval at 2.9 per I-526 approval) was in 2012.

Receipts in the first half of FY2013 are the same as the last half of FY2012 and 18.5% higher than the corresponding period in FY2012, but there are hints of a small reduction happening.

Step 2 refers to I-829. Max I-829 applications (to remove conditions on permanent residency after 2 years) was in 2011. The article says why that might have been so. The result of I-829 does not impact EB5 visa use. It decides whether the people's Conditional Permanent Residency is made permanent.

The figures match those already published.

I agree with the article that EB5 is going through a difficult time and it may lead to a reduction in expected approvals. I have mentioned this previously. Expected approvals would have been a figure in excess of the original 10k allocated, hence the talk of retrogression. It remains to be seen what the impact might be.

[vizcard]

Gurus - I have a question - is cross-chargeability a reason for high EB2/3Row porting - if that's the case, is it being reflected in EB2/3I demand or inventory?

Porting is high due to the heavy EB2 forward movement we saw last year. They are already reflected in Inventory/ Demand but it is unclear which category they show up in. Most folks think that they remain in the original category (EB3). There is a possibility that there is double counting but I don't know for sure.

[geeaarpee]

Porting is high due to the heavy EB2 forward movement we saw last year. They are already reflected in Inventory/ Demand but it is unclear which category they show up in. Most folks think that they remain in the original category (EB3). There is a possibility that there is double counting but I don't know for sure.

Viz- I agree but that wasn't my question. By Cross-Chargeability, I meant primary being charged against India and spouse in ROW there by both (+ any dependents) using EB2/3ROW visas.

I'm sorry, my question was not very clear earlier.

[indiani]

That's not quite correct. The description in the article is slightly misleading.

Step 1 refers to I-526. Max I-526 applications (which leads to use of EB5 visas after approval at 2.9 per I-526 approval) was in 2012.

Receipts in the first half of FY2013 are the same as the last half of FY2012 and 18.5% higher than the corresponding period in FY2012, but there are hints of a small reduction happening.

Step 2 refers to I-829. Max I-829 applications (to remove conditions on permanent residency after 2 years) was in 2011. The article says why that might have been so. The result of I-829 does not impact EB5 visa use. It decides whether the people's Conditional Permanent Residency is made permanent.

The figures match those already published.

I agree with the article that EB5 is going through a difficult time and it may lead to a reduction in expected approvals. I have mentioned this previously. Expected approvals would have been a figure in excess of the original 10k allocated, hence the talk of retrogression. It remains to be seen what the impact might be.

Spec,
your analysis is perhaps the most reliable and logical one ,
here is my question about EB5 SO, don't you think EB2I might receive atleast 1-2 K SO as their quota has increased with FB spillover and also the demand has not increased in the latter part of the year.
In other words 11218- 9000 = 2218.
why I chose 9K is; if it were to be much higher we would have seen EB5C cutoff date before FB spillover added

[geeaarpee]

Step 2 refers to I-829. Max I-829 applications (to remove conditions on permanent residency after 2 years) was in 2011. The article says why that might have been so. The result of I-829 does not impact EB5 visa use. It decides whether the people's Conditional Permanent Residency is made permanent.


Spec - if the people's conditional permanent residency is not made permanent, those issued visas go wasted or will (or can) it be recaptured in the current (or future) fiscal?

[indiani]

Once someone applies for porting with approved 140 and existing 485 from Eb3I, how long will it take to adjudicate their application?
How many new porters might be there who might apply with PD until the end of 2007

[Spectator]

Spec - if the people's conditional permanent residency is not made permanent, those issued visas go wasted or will (or can) it be recaptured in the current (or future) fiscal?As with all Conditional Residency, if conditions are not removed, the visas are not recaptured.

[druvraj]

My feeling is that if in the July bulletin dates moves into 2007 then dates will end up in Q1 of 2008. If on the other hand dates move into 2006 only then we need to forget about dates moving into 2008. I believe that CO will not move the dates in sept bulletin. He will make it U or retrogress in sept.

Does anybody think because of CIR and its restrictive policies on companies like Infosys and Wipro can there be a increases EB1C demand?

[Spectator]

Gurus - I have a question - is cross-chargeability a reason for high EB2/3Row porting - if that's the case, is it being reflected in EB2/3I demand or inventory?I consider porting and cross-chargeability as two distinct and separate categories. Very few people use both porting and cross-chargeability at the same time.

An analysis of EB2-ROW Trackitt approvals from FY2011 through to present suggests that about 10% (8.4-12.0%) of approvals are due to applicants with Indian Nationality (mainly charged to the Gulf States).

The % for porting in EB2-ROW appears to be similar (7.5-11.9%).

There is not enough data to analyze Mexico and Philippines, although I suspect cross-chargeability from India is very low.

As ever, there is no official data on the subject (that I have found).

[Spectator]

Spec,
your analysis is perhaps the most reliable and logical one ,
here is my question about EB5 SO, don't you think EB2I might receive at least 1-2 K SO as their quota has increased with FB spillover and also the demand has not increased in the latter part of the year.
In other words 11218- 9000 = 2218.
why I chose 9K is; if it were to be much higher we would have seen EB5C cutoff date before FB spillover addedYes I believe EB5 will provide spillover.

Before the FB visas (and the problems with EB5 became apparent), CO was talking about having to retrogress EB5-C towards the end of the year. Since EB5 had 9,940 visas at that time, clearly he thought numbers were going to exceed that number when he made the comments in the VB. A lot has changed since then.

Unfortunately, all bar one fairly early number for EB5 visas used, a very tight lid has been kept on EB5 visa usage this year. It's a big contrast to previous years.

[geeaarpee]

I consider porting and cross-chargeability as two distinct and separate categories. Very few people use both porting and cross-chargeability at the same time.

An analysis of EB2-ROW Trackitt approvals from FY2011 through to present suggests that about 10% (8.4-12.0%) of approvals are due to applicants with Indian Nationality (mainly charged to the Gulf States).

The % for porting in EB2-ROW appears to be similar (7.5-11.9%).

There is not enough data to analyze Mexico and Philippines, although I suspect cross-chargeability from India is very low.

As ever, there is no official data on the subject (that I have found).

Thanks Spec - the reason I asked, I personally know a few cases that are using this route with Nepal Chargeability, but not sure how their I-140s will be approved as their EB3 Priority dates are in the 2010s and how they got qualified for EB2 (the experience route, not the masters route) in these 3 years is doubtful, probably they are trying to recapture their old experience, not sure.

[indiani]

My feeling is that if in the July bulletin dates moves into 2007 then dates will end up in Q1 of 2008. If on the other hand dates move into 2006 only then we need to forget about dates moving into 2008. I believe that CO will not move the dates in sept bulletin. He will make it U or retrogress in sept.

Does anybody think because of CIR and its restrictive policies on companies like Infosys and Wipro can there be a increases EB1C demand?

In general I have the same feeling that for the dates to go into 2008, jan 2007 should be the minumum movement in july bulletin but once again things are so unpredictable with uscis that there could be little movement in july bulletin with major movement in august bulletin.
I just wouldnt even think about CIR until there is a house bill that is passed and which is close to senate bill.
almost everyone agrees that senate bill will pass by july.
There is not even a bill in the house yet , so I dont think CIR will become law by this yr ending and once it goes into next year, odds of passing are slim.
Tea party is emboldened with all the scandals and Tea Party 2.0 will start next yr and they will come back with vengence as they feel that they have been oprressed in last election cycle.
I have been following politics in this country for 13 yrs and my prediction is CIR has about 10% chances of passing that too like obamacare with very slim margin and barely making it to finish line that too early spring next yr

[sbhagwat2000]

Matt,

Thanks for sharing.

Spookily, my worst case figure (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1373-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2013-vs-FY2012) for the first half is also 20.4k.

Like you, I don't expect that to repeat in H2 and my range is also 34-38k.

Its reassuring to know that with the same data, you have arrived at the same conclusion.

Spec,

some thoughts about the EB1 numbers -

1. Last year as you have repeatedly mentioned EB1 I came in at 24% of all approvals. Why do you think that is - is it cause Kazarian has made approvals for other countries lengthy v/s India as India applies mostly in certain EB1 categories that are not impacted by kazarian?

2. In Jan CO mentioned that EB 1 I had crossed 2800. I know we should not prorate and I can see in your data that after Jan Eb1 I approvals have reduced. But lets say if we prorate and so annually EB1I would be - 2800 * 3 = 8400. Now if EB1 I approvals revert to the historical percentage of total approvals that would be trouble for EB1 right? Have you taken that into consideration in your calculations?

[indiani]

July bulletin cut off date for EB2I prediction is like predicting land fall of a hurricane, there is a wide range of possible areas where they can land.
having said that I would like to throw in my prediction at jan to august 2007 , i encourage everyone to do so, we all know the SO numbers to the best that can be extrapolated

[JosephM]

My prediction(wish) is that the cutoff will move to August 2008 :)

[druvraj]

In general I have the same feeling that for the dates to go into 2008, jan 2007 should be the minumum movement in july bulletin but once again things are so unpredictable with uscis that there could be little movement in july bulletin with major movement in august bulletin.
I just wouldnt even think about CIR until there is a house bill that is passed and which is close to senate bill.
almost everyone agrees that senate bill will pass by july.
There is not even a bill in the house yet , so I dont think CIR will become law by this yr ending and once it goes into next year, odds of passing are slim.
Tea party is emboldened with all the scandals and Tea Party 2.0 will start next yr and they will come back with vengence as they feel that they have been oprressed in last election cycle.
I have been following politics in this country for 13 yrs and my prediction is CIR has about 10% chances of passing that too like obamacare with very slim margin and barely making it to finish line that too early spring next yr

I agree with you that there is slim chance of CIR passing. What it does is that big companies like Wipro, TCS and Infosys do not want to take risks and they are the ones who have abused EB1-C category(Not EB1-China). Mind you I am not against these companies for if I was the executive I would have done the same. As a result we have high EB1 usage and the FA as a result is small if not none. In fact when I first heard the FB visas are going to used in EB category I was under the impression that all the 18K or so would be used by EB2/3 - I. None by EB1/4/5. EB2WW also panicked last year as result of HR3012.

What also bothers me is the unpredictability of this bulletin. In this day and age numbers should be made available and if at all there has to be a movement it has to be about the transparency. Let us hope for the best!!!