EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[MATT2012]

Viz,
Below are my thoughts on processing of porting applications. it is just in formative stages!!
Let us think about porting, by dividing them to possible categories.
a) Individuals, who have already interfiled, last fiscal year waiting for dates to get current again.
These cases I am not considering as porting, as they are part of existing demand.
b) Individuals who pro-actively filed for interfiling even though dates are not current
There is a high probability that USICS did not take any action in majority of these cases and hence not in demand. Once priority dates get current, USICS will take up this applications and either approve or send a RFE. The only difference between this category and pre-approved is USICS did not pre-adjudicate the new EB2 application. Will it delay the application processing more than one week, I am not sure. If by one week, pre-adjudicated applications consume the complete pool of allocated visas, then they will be left over for next fiscal. My thought a high percentage of these applicants will get through in this fiscal.
c) Individuals who filed interfiling due to RFE from USICS
I am hoping that this will already be in demand and pre-adjudicated. USICS procedure for Interfiling doesn’t support it. But I think that this category is already part of demand. Don’t know how, but for the benefit of doubt. This will have same/ similar priority as individuals who filed last year.
d) Individual who are going to interfile when dates are current.
This category do have a higher risk than category b, considering one additional week of processing for physical mailing, scanning, allocating to the visa officer etc.
My conclusion is it will all narrow down to how visa dates are moving. Who will be left out this fiscal will be the people who got RFEs, the unlucky folks whose application was untouched and those cases who did not get through as the dates internally retrogressed. There is higher chance that there will be more porters in this category. I don’t see a way to quantify the impact, as the lead time between pre-adjudicated and porters is only a week or two. yes those porting applicants who come later in the month will be left for the next fiscal.

Hope this makes some sense




The other variable is processing times. If the jumps happen in the Aug and Sep VB, not everyone porting (2004-2007) will have their cases done this year. So while the gross number might be around 5000, the net might be slightly lower. I'm not counting on that but that could factor in.

[vizcard]

Matt,
Thanks for the explanation. I am aware of the mechanics and my only point is that when dates do get current, these porter cases will be inter-mingled with "regular" cases. So unless, there's a separate slot on the shelf (literally) for porter files, these will all be part of one "processing pile". At that point it could be luck of the draw...again literally. I imagine a situation similar to last year where folks got approved out of turn.

The other practicality is the concept of " low hanging fruit". Arguably cases already in "demand data" are the lowest hanging fruit and I could see case officers cranking those out.

Once again, I'm not counting on this yielding any benefit for the sake of calculations but the logistics of processing a case could affect how they are ultimately handled.

[MATT2012]

No clues Viz how USICS is internally managing porting. As you stated, for calculation purposes, it does nt matter, as less porting approvals may end up allocating visas to pre-adjudicated with a slightly later date or vice versa.

Matt,
Thanks for the explanation. I am aware of the mechanics and my only point is that when dates do get current, these porter cases will be inter-mingled with "regular" cases. So unless, there's a separate slot on the shelf (literally) for porter files, these will all be part of one "processing pile". At that point it could be luck of the draw...again literally. I imagine a situation similar to last year where folks got approved out of turn.

The other practicality is the concept of " low hanging fruit". Arguably cases already in "demand data" are the lowest hanging fruit and I could see case officers cranking those out.

Once again, I'm not counting on this yielding any benefit for the sake of calculations but the logistics of processing a case could affect how they are ultimately handled.

[tanu_75]

My 2c. I think lawyer opinion needs to be taken with a fair pinch of salt. In most cases, they have no f**king idea of the models that we as a community have built to predict date movement. All they are good at is relay information about rules and filing tactics etc. In fairness, they don't have the incentive and are probably too busy in paperwork to even bother building prediction models and tracking all the data.

I would trust the models that Spec/Q have pitched and not bother too much about what some lawyer heard etc. (unless CO himself mentions it in the VB). Most likely it looks like EB2I will clean up till mid 2008 this year. i agree with what someone was mentioning earlier about NVC notices. While sometimes they are false positives, they are still fairly good early indicators of VB date movement.

[vizcard]

My 2c. I think lawyer opinion needs to be taken with a fair pinch of salt. In most cases, they have no f**king idea of the models that we as a community have built to predict date movement. All they are good at is relay information about rules and filing tactics etc. In fairness, they don't have the incentive and are probably too busy in paperwork to even bother building prediction models and tracking all the data.

I would trust the models that Spec/Q have pitched and not bother too much about what some lawyer heard etc. (unless CO himself mentions it in the VB). Most likely it looks like EB2I will clean up till mid 2008 this year. i agree with what someone was mentioning earlier about NVC notices. While sometimes they are false positives, they are still fairly good early indicators of VB date movement.

while what you say is true, this particular lawyer was just supposedly relaying info from the meeting with CO. It wasnt his own opinion. I would assume that CO has some idea of what he is doing.

PS: you are up early (or went to bed later depending on where you are) :)

[qesehmk]

My overall take on this David guy is:

A) In the past CO has given out information to lawyers that turned out completely wrong. (This may have happened by design or not. We will never know).
B) Whatever this particular lawyer has said is so vague and so useless that it's a waste of time to even think about it.
C) The fact that somebody registers just to post this information doesn't pass the smell taste. I would consider it more credible if it had been come from somebody who we knew at least for a few months.

As per predictions ..... I feel just as comfortable with our current prediction since no new information is really available that changes anything.

p.s. - I did see sbhagwat's calculations. I think 40K for ROW is quite a stretch. 26K is usually where they come in at. However it is quite possible that EB3ROW may be moving to EB2 ... just like EB3IC.... but my guess is you have to simply think about it in the same proportion.... not more not less. e.g. If there is 3K indians moving to EB2 from EB3 and if EB3 backlog is 30K (just making this up) ... then the ratio is 10%. So apply the same over entire EB3 because Indians are no special in their desire to move to EB2. After you plug in real numbers .. that should reveal ROW migration to EB2. I am pretty sure that shouldn't exceed 5-6K max.

[Spectator]

My overall take on this David guy is:

A) In the past CO has given out information to lawyers that turned out completely wrong. (This may have happened by design or not. We will never know).
B) Whatever this particular lawyer has said is so vague and so useless that it's a waste of time to even think about it.
C) The fact that somebody registers just to post this information doesn't pass the smell taste. I would consider it more credible if it had been come from somebody who we knew at least for a few months.

As per predictions ..... I feel just as comfortable with our current prediction since no new information is really available that changes anything.

p.s. - I did see sbhagwat's calculations. I think 40K for ROW is quite a stretch. 26K is usually where they come in at. However it is quite possible that EB3ROW may be moving to EB2 ... just like EB3IC.... but my guess is you have to simply think about it in the same proportion.... not more not less. e.g. If there is 3K indians moving to EB2 from EB3 and if EB3 backlog is 30K (just making this up) ... then the ratio is 10%. So apply the same over entire EB3 because Indians are no special in their desire to move to EB2. After you plug in real numbers .. that should reveal ROW migration to EB2. I am pretty sure that shouldn't exceed 5-6K max.Q,

I agree that, in isolation, we can't give too much weight to this news. There is no context to judge the information and it does not fit with everything we know.

It's a bit unfair to air your reservations about the new user. In fact, sbhagwat also contacted the Law firm and received the same information, so an established member did confirm the news.

Again we have confusion about what ROW means to different people. The 40k figure refers to EB2-WW (ROW-M-P) and certainly is not a stretch for that group this FY. I agree it would be absurd for ROW alone. 26k for ROW as a normal run rate is a bit low IMO. Recently 29-30k has been more normal.

Like you, I see no reason to alter my prediction at this time.

[qesehmk]

It doesn't pass the smell test Spec is all I am saying. Sbhagwat only contacted the lawyer after he read about this lawyer on the forum.

What is unfair to the new user is situation and circumstances and the scant information being posted. If somebody can post scan information - others should be able to at least raise questions!! Be fair to me Spec!!

Q,
It's a bit unfair to air your reservations about the new user. In fact, sbhagwat also contacted the Law firm and received the same information, so an established member did confirm the news.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Lawyers who reply like this will speak the truth and will always have the correct info.
You give them too much credit.
I'll stick with the forum's near-consensus estimates for now.

[suninphx]

It doesn't pass the smell test Spec is all I am saying. Sbhagwat only contacted the lawyer after he read about this lawyer on the forum.

What is unfair to the new user is situation and circumstances and the scant information being posted. If somebody can post scan information - others should be able to at least raise questions!! Be fair to me Spec!!

I agree with Q.

[mailmvr]

Not related to EB2I, but pertains to Immigration. To check the thoughts of Gurus I am posting the link here
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/rubio-immigration-reform-bill/2013/04/16/id/499727

“In addition to that we’ve gotten rid of the per country quota, one of the things that didn’t make a lot of sense.
We should be able to attract the best and brightest in the world irrespective of what country they’re coming from"

[sbhagwat2000]

No offense taken. For a change I am going to be optimistic. I went back and checked COs predictions in past years like 2010 and found he always speaks in general terms without bringing SO in the conversation. So in 2010 at one point he was saying dates will move by a few weeks. Finally ended up moving by more than a year. So yes I agree with Q this is a very generic statement made by CO if he ever made it. as far as my calculations were concerned yes I was saying EB2 WW. And it reaching 40000 is not a stretch. Just that thinking about it more i think if the demand for WW was so high to reach 40000 CO would have mentioned officialy in the bulletin like EB5 that cutoff would be applied for WW. Lets see where WW ends. Another thing I was looking at tarckitt trends for this month and both WW and EB2 I approvals are way down. hope this trend continues

[sssbpgmgc]

Thank you sbhagwat, I didn't feel good about my post, so I deleted it.

[pseudonym]

Q,

I agree that, in isolation, we can't give too much weight to this news. There is no context to judge the information and it does not fit with everything we know.

It's a bit unfair to air your reservations about the new user. In fact, sbhagwat also contacted the Law firm and received the same information, so an established member did confirm the news.

Again we have confusion about what ROW means to different people. The 40k figure refers to EB2-WW (ROW-M-P) and certainly is not a stretch for that group this FY. I agree it would be absurd for ROW alone. 26k for ROW as a normal run rate is a bit low IMO. Recently 29-30k has been more normal.

Like you, I see no reason to alter my prediction at this time.


My overall take on this David guy is:

A) In the past CO has given out information to lawyers that turned out completely wrong. (This may have happened by design or not. We will never know).
B) Whatever this particular lawyer has said is so vague and so useless that it's a waste of time to even think about it.
C) The fact that somebody registers just to post this information doesn't pass the smell taste. I would consider it more credible if it had been come from somebody who we knew at least for a few months.

As per predictions ..... I feel just as comfortable with our current prediction since no new information is really available that changes anything.

p.s. - I did see sbhagwat's calculations. I think 40K for ROW is quite a stretch. 26K is usually where they come in at. However it is quite possible that EB3ROW may be moving to EB2 ... just like EB3IC.... but my guess is you have to simply think about it in the same proportion.... not more not less. e.g. If there is 3K indians moving to EB2 from EB3 and if EB3 backlog is 30K (just making this up) ... then the ratio is 10%. So apply the same over entire EB3 because Indians are no special in their desire to move to EB2. After you plug in real numbers .. that should reveal ROW migration to EB2. I am pretty sure that shouldn't exceed 5-6K max.


Q, for what it's worth, my intention was to share the information that I had received with the experts on this forum and nothing else.

In all honesty, I have been a silent observer of the forum for the last couple of months or so, and I can tell you for sure that I don't even come remotely close to the amount of knowledge that gurus like you, Spectator, MATT etc. have on this complex and confusing topic, which is why I usually just end up reading most of the time rather than posting. This is the first time I had something to contribute so I registered and shared immediately. Seems like sbhagwat was able to get the same information as well. I just thought I would explain myself so that it does not prevent other newbies from registering and posting any new information that they might have.

Lastly, from some of the other posts, it sounds like CO has made similar comments in the past without divulging complete information, and I certainly hope it is the case this time as well. Also, the attorney website has a breaking news section which seems to be updated with everything except their communication with CO, so I suspect there is something "fishy" about the whole thing, which is why we should probably not give too much weighting to the email correspondence from the attorney, as some of the other posters have suggested.

[qesehmk]

pseudonym, no worries and thanks really for sharing what you thought was valid information. If I were in your position - even I wouldn't know how credible the info would be!

Thanks again and all the best to you and hope to hear more from you!


Q, for what it's worth, my intention was to share the information that I had received with the experts on this forum and nothing else.

In all honesty, I have been a silent observer of the forum for the last couple of months or so, and I can tell you for sure that I don't even come remotely close to the amount of knowledge that gurus like you, Spectator, MATT etc. have on this complex and confusing topic, which is why I usually just end up reading most of the time rather than posting. This is the first time I had something to contribute so I registered and shared immediately. Seems like sbhagwat was able to get the same information as well. I just thought I would explain myself so that it does not prevent other newbies from registering and posting any new information that they might have.

Lastly, from some of the other posts, it sounds like CO has made similar comments in the past without divulging complete information, and I certainly hope it is the case this time as well. Also, the attorney website has a breaking news section which seems to be updated with everything except their communication with CO, so I suspect there is something "fishy" about the whole thing, which is why we should probably not give too much weighting to the email correspondence from the attorney, as some of the other posters have suggested.

[bvsamrat]

IMHO- immediate effect of CIR, new PERMS/I-140s for porting may halt for some time till the dust is settled, mainly US MS STEMS with more than 5 years experiance and still on EB3(there are tons of them). Why waste money now on PERM and other paper work

CO may get bold enough to make bring back dates as of last year, atleast in July-August



You give them too much credit.
I'll stick with the forum's near-consensus estimates for now.

[Spectator]

IMHO- immediate effect of CIR, new PERMS/I-140s for porting may halt for some time till the dust is settled, mainly US MS STEMS with more than 5 years experiance and still on EB3(there are tons of them). Why waste money now on PERM and other paper work

CO may get bold enough to make bring back dates as of last year, atleast in July-Augustbvsamrat,

I'm not so sure.

I agree that CIR passing, or the prospect of it passing, will slow down people thinking about starting the porting process.

For FY2013, all porting approvals will be from people who have already completed the process or will do so shortly.

As far as I see, nothing in the Senate CIR proposal affects available visa numbers for FY2013, so CO will still only have 158k to play with for FY2013.

He can't set a Cut Off Date later than there are visas available and he can't over-use the allocation.

So I think it will be what it will be this FY.

[natvyas]

In addition to the above, isnt there a review period of about 3 months after a bill becomes a law wherein the further details related to the implementation of the law are outlined? If that is true then the law will not take affect till 2014, assuming it passes in 3rd QTR this year.

[vizcard]

In addition to the above, isnt there a review period of about 3 months after a bill becomes a law wherein the further details related to the implementation of the law are outlined? If that is true then the law will not take affect till 2014, assuming it passes in 3rd QTR this year.

Every law goes in to Federal Register for public feedback. Since most of the clauses are effective FY15, it doesn't matter. There's an extensive discussion here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2033-Discussion-On-Immigration-Reform-(Comprehensive-Or-Otherwise)/page31)

[erikbond101]

No new trackitt approvals for EB2-I in past 15 days. What is happening?

[vgraj1]

Hi,

I note that in the CIR Bill as presented by the Senators, spouses and children are not included in the total EB visa quota of 140,000 and 40% goes to EB2.

If this Bill is passed without any substantial amendments, what will be the EB2 India priority date prediction by Dec. 2013?

Thanks!

vgraj1.



bvsamrat,

I'm not so sure.

I agree that CIR passing, or the prospect of it passing, will slow down people thinking about starting the porting process.

For FY2013, all porting approvals will be from people who have already completed the process or will do so shortly.

As far as I see, nothing in the Senate CIR proposal affects available visa numbers for FY2013, so CO will still only have 158k to play with for FY2013.

He can't set a Cut Off Date later than there are visas available and he can't over-use the allocation.

So I think it will be what it will be this FY.

[harry_kris]

Another one,
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1217896071/rfe-after-17-months-of-filing-i485/page/last_page

Another one (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/882422273/mail-from-nvc-fee-for-neopost-ds-1200) on trackitt - EB2I - PD Jul 2009. There appears to be no other recent activity, however, received email from NVC. Positive sign? I sure hope so.

[veni001]

Hi,

I note that in the CIR Bill as presented by the Senators, spouses and children are not included in the total EB visa quota of 140,000 and 40% goes to EB2.

If this Bill is passed without any substantial amendments, what will be the EB2 India priority date prediction by Dec. 2013?

Thanks!

vgraj1.

vgraj1,

Please read Spec's response below.


bvsamrat,

I'm not so sure.

I agree that CIR passing, or the prospect of it passing, will slow down people thinking about starting the porting process.

For FY2013, all porting approvals will be from people who have already completed the process or will do so shortly.

As far as I see, nothing in the Senate CIR proposal affects available visa numbers for FY2013, so CO will still only have 158k to play with for FY2013.

He can't set a Cut Off Date later than there are visas available and he can't over-use the allocation.

So I think it will be what it will be this FY.

[bvsamrat]

But if the bill passes without any changes, CO could allot all future quota of FY14 in December 13 itself. As later, this quota would have no meaning and all EB1 numbers could spill over straight - Thiis is what I think. But big IF only if CIR passes w/o changes

[vgraj1]

In case the CIR Bill becomes law before Oct.1, 2013, I guess some of the new provisions, namely exclusion of EB1 and spouses/children from EB visa quota, will become effective immediately, although the visa recapture from 1993 to 2013 will take effect from Oct.1, 2014. Then 56,000 visas (excluding spouses/children) will become available for EB2 in FY 2014. Is this correct? In that scenario, what is the expected EB2I priority date movement by Dec. 2013?


vgraj1,

Please read Spec's response below.

[MATT2012]

it will be atleast July before it is voted in the house. The Dept.'s affected by the bill, will then be allocated sometime, normally a few months, to change their internal processes. So the earliest some part of this bill will be effective will be October,2013.For this fiscal year, there will not be any changes irrespective of the fate of the bill.


In case the CIR Bill becomes law before Oct.1, 2013, I guess some of the new provisions, namely exclusion of EB1 and spouses/children from EB visa quota, will become effective immediately, although the visa recapture from 1993 to 2013 will take effect from Oct.1, 2014. Then 56,000 visas (excluding spouses/children) will become available for EB2 in FY 2014. Is this correct? In that scenario, what is the expected EB2I priority date movement by Dec. 2013?

[vgraj1]

I am not talking about FY 2013, I am talking about FY 2014, as Dec. 2013 falls within FY 2014.


it will be atleast July before it is voted in the house. The Dept.'s affected by the bill, will then be allocated sometime, normally a few months, to change their internal processes. So the earliest some part of this bill will be effective will be October,2013.For this fiscal year, there will not be any changes irrespective of the fate of the bill.

[MATT2012]

I am not talking about FY 2013, I am talking about FY 2014, as Dec. 2013 falls within FY 2014.
Spec did put out a 120k number for the first fiscal year of implementation, and majority coming to EB2I please look at the CIR thread.

I am yet to follow CIR much, so did not make any detailed calculations.

[vizcard]

Spec did put out a 120k number for the first fiscal year of implementation, and majority coming to EB2I please look at the CIR thread.

I am yet to follow CIR much, so did not make any detailed calculations.

Long story short..IF
1. the cap related provisions are upheld through the process AND
2. the bill passes and gets signed in by Sep 30, 2013 THEN

EB2/3 will get 120K visas.

If either of those conditions are not met, there will be no benefit till Oct 2014 (assuming it passes). My personal belief as I've expressed in the CIR thread is that for PDs between June 2008 (or wherever we end up by end of this fiscal year) and March 2009, this bill will not provide any benefit.

[MATT2012]

Thanks Viz.



Long story short..IF
1. the cap related provisions are upheld through the process AND
2. the bill passes and gets signed in by Sep 30, 2013 THEN

EB2/3 will get 120K visas.

If either of those conditions are not met, there will be no benefit till Oct 2014 (assuming it passes). My personal belief as I've expressed in the CIR thread is that for PDs between June 2008 (or wherever we end up by end of this fiscal year) and March 2009, this bill will not provide any benefit.

[Spectator]

My personal belief as I've expressed in the CIR thread is that for PDs between June 2008 (or wherever we end up by end of this fiscal year) and March 2009, this bill will not provide any benefit.Vizcard,

FWIW, I agree that, unless a Section says it comes into effect immediately the Bill is passed, then the timelines are too tight for the provisions to come into effect until FY2015.

Just logistically, there is an awful lot that the various agencies would have to prepare in terms of revised paperwork and procedures. That can't happen overnight.

Your sentence probably should say "in FY2014". Clearly it is beneficial when the provisions do come into effect. I would not guarantee all those dates to be cleared even in FY2015 without CIR.

[gc_soon]

Someone in trackitt reports getting NVC fee notice for EB2-I PD March 2009.
User rajji.
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/882422273/mail-from-nvc-fee-for-neopost-ds-1200/page/last_page

[suninphx]

Someone in trackitt reports getting NVC fee notice for EB2-I PD March 2009.
User rajji.
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/882422273/mail-from-nvc-fee-for-neopost-ds-1200/page/last_page

gc_soon,

Thanks.

I also saw that post in the morning. Nothing unusual in that user's profile - which is good. Let's wait and see if few more people report that.

None of the calculation models on this forum support PD movement that far currently.

[helooo]

Someone in trackitt reports getting NVC fee notice for EB2-I PD March 2009.
User rajji.
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/882422273/mail-from-nvc-fee-for-neopost-ds-1200/page/last_page

This is an old post of Jan 2012.Bottom line is if CIR passes and they remove the dependent from count immediately,EB2 should be current.This is my opinion.

[vgraj1]

I am kind of optimistic about the passage of the CIR Bill before Sep.30 because it has bi-partisan support and President's commitment. If the bill becomes law on Oct.1, 2013, i.e. FY 2014, it will bring relief to all EB2/EB3ers waiting for years for their GC. It appears to me that as per Section 2305 of the CIR Bill, the exclusion of spouses and children from EB visa quota becomes effective immediately (i.e. not after one year).


This is an old post of Jan 2012.Bottom line is if CIR passes and they remove the dependent from count immediately,EB2 should be current.This is my opinion.

[gc_soon]

This is an old post of Jan 2012.Bottom line is if CIR passes and they remove the dependent from count immediately,EB2 should be current.This is my opinion.
Wasn't referring to the OP's message of the thread but if you scroll towards the end of the post, you would see the latest comment.

[MATT2012]

I did observe the case you mentioned, looks like a very genuine case. In a different case there was pre-adjudication, though interfiling happened when PD was not current. Also did see RFE for a case with PD 2008 end.

Wasn't referring to the OP's message of the thread but if you scroll towards the end of the post, you would see the latest comment.

[Vkkpnm]

I did observe the case you mentioned, looks like a very genuine case. In a different case there was pre-adjudication, though interfiling happened when PD was not current. Also did see RFE for a case with PD 2008 end.

Thanks Matt. What does this indicate then? Is it really a good sign for PD movement?

[MATT2012]

Thanks Matt. What does this indicate then? Is it really a good sign for PD movement?

if it is a forming trend, we will soon see many more cases getting mentioned. The reflection of any such trend can only be confirmed after the inventory report next month.

Irrespective of date moves or not, it is a good sign.

[vizcard]

Your sentence probably should say "in FY2014". Clearly it is beneficial when the provisions do come into effect. I would not guarantee all those dates to be cleared even in FY2015 without CIR.

I would agree with those qualifiers. I personally believe there will be something that passes. There's a lot of bipartisan support and a lot less vehement opposition than in previous proposed legislation (debt ceiling, healthcare, guns, fiscal cliff, etc).

The question in my mind now is does the Boston bombing impact people's minds considering the suspects are technically legal immigrants. Good thing is that national security hasn't come up as an issue for CIR. Plus both Senators from Mass are Dems.

[SmileBaba]

The question in my mind now is does the Boston bombing impact people's minds considering the suspects are technically legal immigrants. Good thing is that national security hasn't come up as an issue for CIR. Plus both Senators from Mass are Dems.
For that matter, almost e'body (except Red Indians) in this country is a legal immigrant.:)

[Vkkpnm]

For that matter, almost e'body (except Red Indians) in this country is a legal immigrant.:)

I was just about to reply on similar lines :)

[vizcard]

For that matter, almost e'body (except Red Indians) in this country is a legal immigrant.:)

That is a totally incorrect statement and a very loose definition of immigrant. Almost everybody is a descendent of an immigrant. I don't want to get in to technicalities but my point is if you are born in a country you are NOT an immigrant and like it or not, that's how most of the population sees it.

PS: "Red Indian" is politically incorrect word.

[qesehmk]

sometimes viz it is best to look at the spirit of the statement than the actual words! So in that sense it is understandable what smilebaba said! But you are right that once born here .. the person is not necessarily immigrant himself.
That is a totally incorrect statement and a very loose definition of immigrant. Almost everybody is a descendent of an immigrant. I don't want to get in to technicalities but my point is if you are born in a country you are NOT an immigrant and like it or not, that's how most of the population sees it.

PS: "Red Indian" is politically incorrect word.

[Vkkpnm]

The definition of an immigrant by Viz may be correct but the message what similebaba was trying to convey that based on Boston incident by an immigrant won't affect CIR and any similar bill/law as this country is a land of immigrants.

[sbhagwat2000]

gurus,

On trackitt approvals for EB2I and ROW has collapsed for April. Looks like demand has slowed which could be good news. any thoughts?

[Spectator]

gurus,

On trackitt approvals for EB2I and ROW has collapsed for April. Looks like demand has slowed which could be good news. any thoughts?I would agree that EB2-I approvals are very low. Perhaps it gives some hope for movement in the June VB, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I would caution that there are still quite a lot of Trackitt cases in EB2-I with a PD earlier than Sept 2004 and cases showing under EB3-I with a PD earlier than Sept 2004 and a confirmed I-140 approval in EB2.

"Collapsed" is a rather relative term for EB2-ROW.

Yes, approvals have slowed, but that was expected. April EB2-ROW approvals are on target for about 2.2 - 2.4k, if it continues at the same rate to the end of the month - which is about normal. EB2-WW may use the normal 2.8k.

If that rate were sustained for the remainder of the year, it would lead to nearly 43k usage for EB2-WW.

There is no shortage of reasonably recent EB2-ROW cases pending on Trackitt. Already there are enough to consume the EB2-ROW allocation, even if 20% are never updated.

Is that good news?

[infoseek]

Some info/numbers to crunch from Fragomen (assuming the senate Bill passes):

Immigrant visa quota allocations and backlog clearance. The bill would retain the baseline employment-based (EB) immigrant visa quota of 140,000, but during the first several years after enactment, additional numbers would be available to clear the lengthy EB green card backlog. During FY 2015, there would be an immediate injection of thousands of unused immigrant visas from Fiscal Years 1992 to 2013. In addition, during the first four fiscal years after enactment, up to 120,000 immigrant visas from a new merit-based green card program would be available each year to employment-based immigrants. In subsequent years, the EB green card quota would be 140,000 plus unused family-based immigrant visa numbers from the previous year.

The bill would exempt several categories of employment-based immigrants from the annual quota, including all foreign nationals in the EB-1 category (foreign nationals of extraordinary ability, outstanding professors and researchers and multinational managers and executives); foreign nationals holding a doctoral degree in any field; foreign nationals with a U.S. master's degree or higher in a STEM field earned in the five years preceding the filing of an immigrant visa petition and a job offer in a field related to the degree; certain physicians; and the spouses and children of employment-based immigrants.

Forty percent of the EB immigrant visa quota would be allocated to advanced-degree professionals. Another forty percent of the quota would be allocated to professionals, skilled workers and other workers in the EB-3 category. The immigrant investor category and the special immigrant category would each be allocated ten percent of the EB green card quota.

[sbhagwat2000]

I would agree that EB2-I approvals are very low. Perhaps it gives some hope for movement in the June VB, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I would caution that there are still quite a lot of Trackitt cases in EB2-I with a PD earlier than Sept 2004 and cases showing under EB3-I with a PD earlier than Sept 2004 and a confirmed I-140 approval in EB2.

"Collapsed" is a rather relative term for EB2-ROW.

Yes, approvals have slowed, but that was expected. April EB2-ROW approvals are on target for about 2.2 - 2.4k, if it continues at the same rate to the end of the month - which is about normal. EB2-WW may use the normal 2.8k.

If that rate were sustained for the remainder of the year, it would lead to nearly 43k usage for EB2-WW.

There is no shortage of reasonably recent EB2-ROW cases pending on Trackitt. Already there are enough to consume the EB2-ROW allocation, even if 20% are never updated.

Is that good news?

Look at the EB2 ROW approvals so far this month - 27. Last month 76. Average per month for the last few years is 80. theres one week left this month so even at a max it will end at around 40 which is half - hence demand has collapsed. Also look at year 2009. Till April they had 444 approvals ended the year at around 700. But in reality that year EB2 ROW did not even use its allocation. So to fully rely on trackitt trends is also not correct. I still think CO would have officially mentioned something abt Eb2 row and WW had demand been what you are saying it is. We will see. May bulletin is not far off

[Spectator]

Look at the EB2 ROW approvals so far this month - 27. Last month 76. Average per month for the last few years is 80. theres one week left this month so even at a max it will end at around 40 which is half - hence demand has collapsed. Also look at year 2009. Till April they had 444 approvals ended the year at around 700. But in reality that year EB2 ROW did not even use its allocation. So to fully rely on trackitt trends is also not correct. I still think CO would have officially mentioned something abt Eb2 row and WW had demand been what you are saying it is. We will see. May bulletin is not far offSorry to disagree, but those figures are not correct. At least not as I count them.

So far this month is 37 for all EB2-ROW. (28 EB2 + 4 NIW + 4 Indian nationality + 1 user Unknown Country but is actually ROW). We are in working day 16 of 22 in April, so it could be 51 for the month.

FY2013 October 2012 to March 2013 had an average of 77.

For FY2012 October 2011 to June 2012 the average was 49.

For FY2011 the average was 45.

[MATT2012]

For the demand to level off to normal levels, the percentage of pending I-485 applications filed in Oct/Nov should be close to 15%. As of the last weekend, it was roughly 25% pending. The number of approvals for quarter I and quarter II in trackitt is very close. My thinking from that is DoS has issued maximum number of visas in first two quarters. The number of approvals in trackitt have reduced in April, but I dont think it is because of lack of demand, considering 25% is pending from October and November applications.

if number of new applicants dropped from Jan - June, there may be some impact. So far there have been drops, but not huge. The number of new applications is less than number of approvals.

it is too early to conclude whether the demand for EB2-WW will be closer 36K or as high as 42 K. Somewhere in between is where I stand now.
I know one cannot completely rely on trackitt, but trackitt data has always provided some good early trends.

All that we know from CO is, In Feb, he was not sure whether to impose a cutoff date for EB2-WW. My personal interpretation is , it may be more than 35K in his mind, if it is aprox one month of pending demand at year end, he can manage with minor retrogression. Dont shoot me for that statement, but it is my personal interpretation. A few days later, every calculation changed with FB SO.



Look at the EB2 ROW approvals so far this month - 27. Last month 76. Average per month for the last few years is 80. theres one week left this month so even at a max it will end at around 40 which is half - hence demand has collapsed. Also look at year 2009. Till April they had 444 approvals ended the year at around 700. But in reality that year EB2 ROW did not even use its allocation. So to fully rely on trackitt trends is also not correct. I still think CO would have officially mentioned something abt Eb2 row and WW had demand been what you are saying it is. We will see. May bulletin is not far off

[sbhagwat2000]

Sorry to disagree, but those figures are not correct. At least not as I count them.

So far this month is 37 for all EB2-ROW. (28 EB2 + 4 NIW + 4 Indian nationality + 1 user Unknown Country but is actually ROW). We are in working day 16 of 22 in April, so it could be 51 for the month.

FY2013 October 2012 to March 2013 had an average of 77.

For FY2012 October 2011 to June 2012 the average was 49.

For FY2011 the average was 45.

i am counting only EB2 ROW with EB2 ROW chargeability. Last month was 76. Last year April - May was ~80. Right now trending to 27. Also dont you think CO would have had a word about EB2ROW if demand was trending to 43000. I think at the max EB2 WW will reach 39000.

[sbhagwat2000]

For the demand to level off to normal levels, the percentage of pending I-485 applications filed in Oct/Nov should be close to 15%. As of the last weekend, it was roughly 25% pending. The number of approvals for quarter I and quarter II in trackitt is very close. My thinking from that is DoS has issued maximum number of visas in first two quarters. The number of approvals in trackitt have reduced in April, but I dont think it is because of lack of demand, considering 25% is pending from October and November applications.

if number of new applicants dropped from Jan - June, there may be some impact. So far there have been drops, but not huge. The number of new applications is less than number of approvals.

it is too early to conclude whether the demand for EB2-WW will be closer 36K or as high as 42 K. Somewhere in between is where I stand now.
I know one cannot completely rely on trackitt, but trackitt data has always provided some good early trends.

All that we know from CO is, In Feb, he was not sure whether to impose a cutoff date for EB2-WW. My personal interpretation is , it may be more than 35K in his mind, if it is aprox one month of pending demand at year end, he can manage with minor retrogression. Dont shoot me for that statement, but it is my personal interpretation. A few days later, every calculation changed with FB SO.

Matt - What we have heard about from CO abt EB2 WW retrogression was throught Cilawgroup website. theres no official wod from CO like he had abt EB5 china in a visa bulletin. Also only cilaw says CO is thinking about EB2 WW retrogression. No other lawyer website says that. check murthy or any other website. If demand for EB2 WW was so high as to reach 43000 CO surely would have mentioned it in february that he will have to have a cutoff at some point

[Spectator]

i am counting only EB2 ROW with EB2 ROW chargeability. Last month was 76. Last year April - May was ~80. Right now trending to 27. Also dont you think CO would have had a word about EB2ROW if demand was trending to 43000. I think at the max EB2 WW will reach 39000.We are counting apples and oranges.

Last month was 63. Last April was 46 and last May was 50, as I count approvals for EB2-ROW (including NIW).

You cant just count EB2, because NIW also use visas (and rather a lot in ROW - nearly 20%).

I don't know where you are getting 76 for March 2013 from for only EB2-ROW (excluding NIW). A Trackitt query (of Category - EB2, Chargability - ROW, I-485 Approval - March 2013 to March 2013, Applicant - Primary, I-485 Status - Approved) gives a figure of 51.

Generally, approvals aren't as high in September, so a completely prorated figure is slightly unfair (I take that into account in my calculations).

I don't think the EB2-WW figure will be as high as 43k, but will probably be at least 40k, unless approvals start dropping off dramatically.

[MATT2012]

I am not in the 43K thought process. From what I read from his earlier postings, Spec is also not. I thought it was a general interpretation of trackitt data, when he quoted the high figure.

I dont think Cilawgroup would have put something in their website something, CO did not mention. Yes to your point if WW demand was that high, he normally would have mentioned in VB.

Inventory data will come out soon. We could see some trends there..


Matt - What we have heard about from CO abt EB2 WW retrogression was throught Cilawgroup website. theres no official wod from CO like he had abt EB5 china in a visa bulletin. Also only cilaw says CO is thinking about EB2 WW retrogression. No other lawyer website says that. check murthy or any other website. If demand for EB2 WW was so high as to reach 43000 CO surely would have mentioned it in february that he will have to have a cutoff at some point

[Spectator]

I am not in the 43K thought process. I cannot answer for Spec, but from what I read from his earlier postings he is also not. I thought he was just interpreting trackitt data, when he quoted the high figure. I think his general thought line is closer to 39K.

Spec: Correct me if I am wrong?

I dont think Cilawgroup would have put something in their website something, CO did not mention. Yes to your point if WW demand was that high, he normally would have mentioned in VB.

Inventory data will come out soon. We could see some trends there..Matt,

Unless EB2-I are overallocated visas, there is no question of EB2-WW being retrogressed. They are entitled to 86% of any Fall Down, which is more than enough to cover any number they could reach. If EB2-WW retrogress, then EB2-I must be made Unavailable.

I said in my last post that I am working on nearer 39-40k for various reasons, so you are correct. I have to be cognizant that this can change. Currently, the signs are more for an upward movement than a downward one. 39-40k needs lower monthly approvals from EB2-WW than have been seen in any month to date. This will be come clearer as the months progress.

The Inventory data isn't that useful for EB2-WW, or any other group that is Current. It never shows anything close to the full demand, since it doesn't show cases in progress where the I-140 has not yet been approved. If the I-485 is approved shortly after I-140 approval, that will never show either.

[MATT2012]

Matt,

The Inventory data isn't that useful for EB2-WW, or any other group that is Current. It never shows anything close to the full demand, since it doesn't show cases in progress where the I-140 has not yet been approved. If the I-485 is approved shortly after I-140 approval, that will never show either.

Thanks Spec, I was just looking for data from late 2011 and first half of 2012 , for EB2-WW in inventory. it does'nt give us depth of information as you said, but just an overall trend.

I am not sure whether you noticed or not, In inventory data of Jan - they have EB2-ROW data until December. How is this possible, Is this approved NIW applications, or USICS just stacking data? you can notice the same trend in October inventory also, data until preceeding month is present. Any Clues??

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec, I was just looking for data from late 2011 and first half of 2012 , for EB2-WW in inventory. it does'nt give us depth of information as you said, but just an overall trend.

I am not sure whether you noticed or not, In inventory data of Jan - they have EB2-ROW data until December. How is this possible, Is this approved NIW applications, or USICS just stacking data? you can notice the same trend in October inventory also, data until preceeding month is present. Any Clues??I haven't looked, but my guess is that the December cases are concurrently filed, where the I-140 was PP.

I've never seen any data even about the overall % that PP, yet alone by Category or Country.

[sbhagwat2000]

Matt,

Unless EB2-I are overallocated visas, there is no question of EB2-WW being retrogressed. They are entitled to 86% of any Fall Down, which is more than enough to cover any number they could reach. If EB2-WW retrogress, then EB2-I must be made Unavailable.

I said in my last post that I am working on nearer 39-40k for various reasons, so you are correct. I have to be cognizant that this can change. Currently, the signs are more for an upward movement than a downward one. 39-40k needs lower monthly approvals from EB2-WW than have been seen in any month to date. This will be come clearer as the months progress.

The Inventory data isn't that useful for EB2-WW, or any other group that is Current. It never shows anything close to the full demand, since it doesn't show cases in progress where the I-140 has not yet been approved. If the I-485 is approved shortly after I-140 approval, that will never show either.

In Trackiit - I made the following query -

Nationality: ROW
Country of Chargeability: ROW
Category - EB2
Applicant type : All
I 485 status - approved
I-485 Approval/Denial Date:April 2011 - May 2011 - 106 case; :April 2012 - May 2012 - 70 cases; :April 2013 - May 2013 - 28 cases so far

[Spectator]

In Trackiit - I made the following query -

Nationality: ROW
Country of Chargeability: ROW
Category - EB2
Applicant type : All
I 485 status - approved
I-485 Approval/Denial Date:April 2011 - May 2011 - 106 case; :April 2012 - May 2012 - 70 cases; :April 2013 - May 2013 - 28 cases so fara) You need to set Nationality to All. You will then pick up a further 6 Indian Nationality but ROW Chargability cases, giving a total of 34 for your query for April-May 2013.

b) Why are you specifying 2 month periods?

e.g. April 2012 - May 2012 is April 1, 2012 to May 31,2012

Is this why you are coming up with such high figures?

c) I only count Primary approvals because the number of Dependents in Trackitt bears no resemblance to the real world (about 1:1). I then count Dependents through the ratio applied to the Trackitt figures.

If you do that, you will get 32 approvals for your query for April 2013 to April 2013.

Unless you count NIW, you are not getting a complete picture. For instance, there are 4 NIW in April to date. There were 14 in March.

[sbhagwat2000]

a) You need to set Nationality to All. You will then pick up a further 6 Indian Nationality but ROW Chargability cases, giving a total of 34 for your query for April-May 2013.

b) Why are you specifying 2 month periods?

e.g. April 2012 - May 2012 is April 1, 2012 to May 31,2012

Is this why you are coming up with such high figures?

c) I only count Primary approvals because the number of Dependents in Trackitt bears no resemblance to the real world (about 1:1). I then count Dependents through the ratio applied to the Trackitt figures.

If you do that, you will get 32 approvals for your query for April 2013 to April 2013.

Unless you count NIW, you are not getting a complete picture. For instance, there are 4 NIW in April to date. There were 14 in March.

So i changed to one month and I am keeping NIW out for now. i compared past years and demand has always been uneven. example in 2011 in July or august demand spiked to the 70s. This year i agree demand has been spiking early this year. But if you look at march and now this month demand is surely going down. This month is on track to be one of the lowest. Lets hope it continues.

On a side note - I keep hearing abt Kazarian memo. Can you briefly tell me what it is and how is affects EB1 processing. And does it impact EB1 even now

[MATT2012]

On a side note - I keep hearing abt Kazarian memo. Can you briefly tell me what it is and how is affects EB1 processing. And does it impact EB1 even now
The Kazarian memo added an additional proof/burden of demonstrating a sustained national/ international acclaim and also to demonstrate achievements that have been recognized in the field of expertise.

In essence, there is additional scrutiny in EB1'a' and EB1'b' applications. Yes it impacts EB1processing even now, but I have not analyzed data deep enough to quantify the impact.

[anuran]

On a side note - I keep hearing abt Kazarian memo. Can you briefly tell me what it is and how is affects EB1 processing. And does it impact EB1 even now

Yes it does. If you carefully read (on trackitt or mitbbs) through the lamentations of the numerous EB1's whose I-140 has been rejected, you can easily realize the impact the memo. Despite the applicants' claim that they fulfill the minimum 3 requirements to qualify in Eb1A and 2 requirements in Eb1B, the IO will in fact cite the Kazarian memo as reason for the rejection. The IO will often time judge that the applicant is not above par compared to his peers in the field.

[Spectator]

On a side note - I keep hearing abt Kazarian memo. Can you briefly tell me what it is and how is affects EB1 processing. And does it impact EB1 even nowBasically, pre-Kazarian, USCIS adjudicated each piece of evidence submitted to see if it qualified as Extraordinary or Outstanding as appropriate. If there were 3 or 2 pieces of evidence that met this test (as appropriate, then then the cases could be approved. If insufficient categories of evidence met this test, then the case was denied.

What the Kazarian judgement said was that USCIS should first count whether enough different pieces of evidence had been submitted (regardless of the quality) and than make a Final Merits Determination as to whether the totality of the evidence inticated the person was Extraordinary or Outstanding as appropriate.

This is how USCIS put it in the Memo about Evaluation of Evidence Submitted in EB1A & EB1B I-140 cases (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/i-140-evidence-pm-6002-005-1.pdf).


In 2010, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (Ninth Circuit) reviewed the Administrative Appeals Office’s (AAO) dismissal of a petitioner’s appeal of a denial of a petition filed under 203(b)(1)(A) of the INA. Kazarian v. USCIS, 596 F.3d 1115 (9th Cir. 2010).

Although affirming the decision, the Ninth Circuit found that the AAO erred in its evaluation of the initial evidence submitted with the petition pursuant to 8 CFR 204.5(h)(3). Specifically, the Ninth Circuit concluded that while USCIS may have raised legitimate concerns about the significance of the evidence submitted, those concerns should have been raised in a subsequent “final merits determination” of whether the petitioner has the requisite extraordinary ability. Id. at 1122. The Ninth Circuit further stated that the concerns were “not relevant to the antecedent procedural question of whether the petitioner has provided at least three types of evidence.” Id. at 1121.

USCIS agrees with the Kazarian court’s two-part adjudicative approach to evaluating evidence submitted in connection with petitions for aliens of extraordinary ability: (1) Determine whether the petitioner or self-petitioner has submitted the required evidence that meets the parameters for each type of evidence listed at 8 CFR 204.5(h)(3); and (2) Determine whether the evidence submitted is sufficient to demonstrate that the beneficiary or self-petitioner meets the required high level of expertise for the extraordinary ability immigrant classification during a final merits determination. By contrast, the approach taken by USCIS officers in Kazarian collapsed these two parts and evaluated the evidence at the beginning stage of the adjudicative process, with each type of evidence being evaluated individually to determine whether the self-petitioner was extraordinary.

The two-part adjudicative approach to evaluating evidence described in Kazarian simplifies the adjudicative process by eliminating piecemeal consideration of extraordinary ability and shifting the analysis of overall extraordinary ability to the end of the adjudicative process when a determination on the entire petition is made (the final merits determination). Therefore, under this approach, an objective evaluation of the initial evidence listed at 8 CFR 204.5(h)(3) will continue as before; what changes is when the determination of extraordinary ability occurs in the adjudicative process. USCIS believes that this approach will lead to decisions that more clearly explain how evidence was considered, the basis for the overall determination of eligibility (or lack thereof), and greater consistency in decisions on petitions for aliens with extraordinary ability.

This approach is equally applicable to the evaluation of evidence in the adjudication of petitions for outstanding professors or researchers and aliens of exceptional ability. Similar evidentiary requirements and qualitative analyses apply to these types of petitions. Therefore, a similar adjudication process also should apply.

The Kazarian case and all the subsequent retraining and review of decisions led to extremely low approvals for EB1 in FY2011.

Potentially, EB1 approvals could have been higher than normal in FY2012 as a result, but no one knows for sure.

This year, FY2013, is the first "normal" year after Kazarian. It should give us an idea of what normal actually looks like post-Kazarian.

[Spectator]

The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) has been updated with the February 2013 figures.

[redsox2009]

Based on the data which USCIS published, number of I140 and 485 are decreasing slowly.

[druvraj]

I feel if in EB1C there is no abuse then we will definitely see some spillover from EB1. So far does anybody know how many of the EB1s are in the EB1-C category?

[indiani]

I have been following this forum for a while especially after Breaking news from spec who in fact is better than anyone in predictions, I have read that CO has mentioned that EB1, 2row, 4, 5 . will be current without considering teh FB spillover. so I am assuming that they are not going to consume any spillover and rather might give away small spillovers from their own quota.
Is it fair to say that EB2I will get atleast 12K spillover, this is very simplstic approach and I dont want to crunch the numbers again as my understanding of all the numbers are from spec himself.
for many who are worried abt EB2ROW crossing 40K, dont you think even before FB spillover CO might have alerted of possible retrogression of EB2ROW in march bulletin if their usage was going to be more than 40K.

[vizcard]

I have been following this forum for a while especially after Breaking news from spec who in fact is better than anyone in predictions, I have read that CO has mentioned that EB1, 2row, 4, 5 . will be current without considering teh FB spillover. so I am assuming that they are not going to consume any spillover and rather might give away small spillovers from their own quota.
Is it fair to say that EB2I will get atleast 12K spillover, this is very simplstic approach and I dont want to crunch the numbers again as my understanding of all the numbers are from spec himself.
for many who are worried abt EB2ROW crossing 40K, dont you think even before FB spillover CO might have alerted of possible retrogression of EB2ROW in march bulletin if their usage was going to be more than 40K.

welcome indiani. Spec is indeed one of the best if not the best at calculations. If you look at the first page, all the gurus update their predictions and assumptions as new info comes in. There is consensus that EB2IC will get between 15K- to 20K spillover incl their own allocation.

[druvraj]

Spec and Q,

Does USCIS give a breakdown of the EB1 visas granted so far this Oct 2012 - Sept 2013. That way we might be able to see how many EB1C (Not China rather category C) were issued. I have a strong feeling that EB1A/B will never use its allocated quota esp with K Memo.

[qesehmk]

druvraj - USCIS doesn't provide ongoing monthly visa statistics. They only provide year end statistics of visas issued (which to their credit is quite elaborate -- but only partially useful for forecasting).

As per your observation about K memo and EB1 category - you are right. Actually its EB1C category that is driving overall EB1 demand up. EB1A/B would drive it up only marginally if at all. It was feared that EB1A/B would create a backlog because of K memo. But my hunch is - instead of creating a backlog - the ineligible EB1A/B are outright being rejected at 140 level. It is only a hunch - I don't have data for it.


Spec and Q,

Does USCIS give a breakdown of the EB1 visas granted so far this Oct 2012 - Sept 2013. That way we might be able to see how many EB1C (Not China rather category C) were issued. I have a strong feeling that EB1A/B will never use its allocated quota esp with K Memo.

[erikbond101]

Hi,
Can some one please explain why EB3-I demand data numbers are reducing at faster rate (4275 in 7 months)? Are preadjudicated numbers for EB2I is causing this reduction in EB3I? April 2007 was current for EB2I in Sep 2011 and was continued to be available till April 2012.

Difference in Nov 12 and May 13 Demand data
2012 47,125 42,850 -------- 4275
2007 43,500 39,375 -------- 4125
2006 33,700 30,000 -------- 3700
2005 25,650 22,300 -------- 3350
2004 13,275 10,775 -------- 2500
2003 2,300 650 -------- 1650

In 7 months EB3-I numbers are reduced by 1650 for pre Jan 1st 2003. This may be regular quota. But what about extra 2500+ reduction of EB3I in other FYs.

June 2011 demand data had 57,450 pending I-485 and now it has gone down to 42,850 in May 2013. That means decrease of 14700 in 2 years.

[Vkkpnm]

welcome indiani. Spec is indeed one of the best if not the best at calculations. If you look at the first page, all the gurus update their predictions and assumptions as new info comes in. There is consensus that EB2IC will get between 15K- to 20K spillover incl their own allocation.

All,

Does prediction updated on page 1 by number of experts still holds true?

Thanks,

[MATT2012]

Hi Erikbond,
it could very well be porting. But none of us can confirm, as USICS has so far not given any communication about pre-adjudicating applications for porters when dates are not current. There are similar increases in EB2I also, depending upon how you look at the data. if USICS have started pre-adjudicating porting applications and demand data is indeed reflecting the same, it is good news. As our calculations have blocked large numbers of visas for porters for the whole year.

I would like to hear thoughts of other senior members too, Spec, Q, Viz etc...Any thoughts on erikbond's observation?

Matt

Hi,
Can some one please explain why EB3-I demand data numbers are reducing at faster rate (4275 in 7 months)? Are preadjudicated numbers for EB2I is causing this reduction in EB3I? April 2007 was current for EB2I in Sep 2011 and was continued to be available till April 2012.

Difference in Nov 12 and May 13 Demand data
2012 47,125 42,850 -------- 4275
2007 43,500 39,375 -------- 4125
2006 33,700 30,000 -------- 3700
2005 25,650 22,300 -------- 3350
2004 13,275 10,775 -------- 2500
2003 2,300 650 -------- 1650

In 7 months EB3-I numbers are reduced by 1650 for pre Jan 1st 2003. This may be regular quota. But what about extra 2500+ reduction of EB3I in other FYs.

June 2011 demand data had 57,450 pending I-485 and now it has gone down to 42,850 in May 2013. That means decrease of 14700 in 2 years.

[vizcard]

Hi Erikbond,
it could very well be porting. But none of us can confirm, as USICS has so far not given any communication about pre-adjudicating applications for porters when dates are not current. There are similar increases in EB2I also, depending upon how you look at the data. if USICS have started pre-adjudicating porting applications and demand data is indeed reflecting the same, it is good news. As our calculations have blocked large numbers of visa for porters for the whole year.

I would like to hear views of other senior members too, Spec, Q, Viz etc...Any thoughts on erikbond's observation?

Matt

Matt
Don't include me in the same sentence as Q and Spec when it comes to calculations and stuff...I ride their coattails and just factor in my own assumptions based on their calculations.

The reduction up to 2007 (presumably July 2007) is 4125. You have to assume that most if not all of that is porting. There could be some drop outs but it wouldn't be material to calculations. I don't really understand the 2007-2012 demand since they were not current at any point.

[MATT2012]

Matt

I don't really understand the 2007-2012 demand since they were not current at any point.
it is essentially 2007 applicants, but that is how demand data words it.

[qesehmk]

erikbond - I think this is consistent with our observation of about 3-6K porting in EB3IC. 2500 reduction between Nov-May => 5K reduction in full year. Rest 1600 half year reduction => 3.2K full year reduction.

The 5K is porting. 3.2K is quota/approvals. Of course both figures will include some denials withdrawals also.

Now if you add them together 8.2 and multiply by 2 years .... gives 16.4 which is also consistent with 14.7 number you gave in two years. The difference of 1.7K suggests, the pace of porting has accelerated as people in EB3 have become more experienced and moved up the ladder and possibly have their employers move them into EB2.

Makes sense?


Hi,
Can some one please explain why EB3-I demand data numbers are reducing at faster rate (4275 in 7 months)? Are preadjudicated numbers for EB2I is causing this reduction in EB3I? April 2007 was current for EB2I in Sep 2011 and was continued to be available till April 2012.

Difference in Nov 12 and May 13 Demand data
2012 47,125 42,850 -------- 4275
2007 43,500 39,375 -------- 4125
2006 33,700 30,000 -------- 3700
2005 25,650 22,300 -------- 3350
2004 13,275 10,775 -------- 2500
2003 2,300 650 -------- 1650

In 7 months EB3-I numbers are reduced by 1650 for pre Jan 1st 2003. This may be regular quota. But what about extra 2500+ reduction of EB3I in other FYs.

June 2011 demand data had 57,450 pending I-485 and now it has gone down to 42,850 in May 2013. That means decrease of 14700 in 2 years.

[vizcard]

it is essentially 2007 applicants, but that is how demand data words it.

Yeah..i got it..i just totally skipped over that. Had my weekly "duh" moment.

[vizcard]

Q, Spec, Matt,
I'm not sure if I posted this before and already got an answer or not but I figured I'd post it anyway. If its already been discussed just summarize the result or point me to those posts.

The general consensus is that dates will end up being between March and June-ish 2008 in FY13. That's assuming a flat monthly distribution for 2008 PDs. The reality is that a high number of Dec 2011 filers (Jan - Mar 2008 PDs) and even the first half of Jan 2012 filers got approved last year itself. One could argue that the monthly distribution for 2008 is skewed heavier towards Q2-Q4 2008. Given this I imagine that dates could potentially move a month (or more) further than that with a flat monthly distribution.

Thoughts?

[MATT2012]

Q, Spec, Matt,
I'm not sure if I posted this before and already got an answer or not but I figured I'd post it anyway. If its already been discussed just summarize the result or point me to those posts.

The general consensus is that dates will end up being between March and June-ish 2008 in FY13. That's assuming a flat monthly distribution for 2008 PDs. The reality is that a high number of Dec 2011 filers (Jan - Mar 2008 PDs) and even the first half of Jan 2012 filers got approved last year itself. One could argue that the monthly distribution for 2008 is skewed heavier towards Q2-Q4 2008. Given this I imagine that dates could potentially move a month (or more) further than that with a flat monthly distribution.

Thoughts?
2008 EB2I demand is relatively close in most months, a few hundred differences in some months. The quarterly break up from January inventory data is - Qtr I- 3500, Qtr II- 4400, Qtr III – 3600, Qtr ** -4500. The third quarter demand is very similar to the first quarter. for a months movement in 3 rd quarter it will only require 1200 visas. if porting turns out to be lower than expected, it could easily move ahead by a month or so.

[qesehmk]

Viz

We don't have to assume anything. 485 inventory is already crystal clear. There is slight difference between Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 density. But not much. Frankly I am puzzled because last year we did see quite a lot people from 2008 getting approved. But as per today - the answer is very clear. There is not much density difference.

Q, Spec, Matt,
I'm not sure if I posted this before and already got an answer or not but I figured I'd post it anyway. If its already been discussed just summarize the result or point me to those posts.

The general consensus is that dates will end up being between March and June-ish 2008 in FY13. That's assuming a flat monthly distribution for 2008 PDs. The reality is that a high number of Dec 2011 filers (Jan - Mar 2008 PDs) and even the first half of Jan 2012 filers got approved last year itself. One could argue that the monthly distribution for 2008 is skewed heavier towards Q2-Q4 2008. Given this I imagine that dates could potentially move a month (or more) further than that with a flat monthly distribution.

Thoughts?

[MATT2012]

Frankly I am puzzled because last year we did see quite a lot people from 2008 getting approved.

Hi Q,

We did see a lot approvals from first quarter of 2008 during last fiscal. But that did nt make a big dent in demand, as first quarter of 2008 had more labor applications due to the excitement created in summer of 2007.

Matt

[vizcard]

Very interesting. So the high influx for Q1 2008 of labor apps negated some of the "early approvals". So I suppose for now its still March t0 June 2008.

[qesehmk]

Matt - generally my observation is that labor date distribution is fairly uniform. So I am not sure if and why there was a bump in Q1 2008. Do you have some insight?
Hi Q,

We did see a lot approvals from first quarter of 2008 during last fiscal. But that did nt make a big dent in demand, as first quarter of 2008 had more labor applications due to the excitement created in summer of 2007.

Matt

Viz - my forecast has all those things baked into it. So it wouldn't change.

Very interesting. So the high influx for Q1 2008 of labor apps negated some of the "early approvals". So I suppose for now its still March t0 June 2008.

[Spectator]

I've kept stats (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012) on Trackitt applications since October 2011 which might throw some light on this.

The numbers below show the % of Trackitt applications yet to be approved and the number left to be approved.


----------- % ----- No.
---------- Not ---- Not
- PD ----- App. --- App.
Jan-08 -- 59.59% -- 115
Feb-08 -- 55.93% --- 99
Mar-08 -- 69.23% -- 108
Apr-08 -- 90.52% -- 105
May-08 -- 86.89% -- 106
Jun-08 -- 88.57% --- 93
Jul-08 -- 86.67% --- 78
Aug-08 -- 90.08% -- 118
Sep-08 -- 88.51% --- 77
Oct-08 -- 88.00% --- 88
Nov-08 -- 93.33% --- 98
Dec-08 -- 90.52% -- 105


The PERM figures (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-China-amp-India) show that there was indeed a spike in applications with January/February 2008 priority dates. April 2008 also looks higher than average.

[vizcard]

I've kept stats (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012) on Trackitt applications since October 2011 which might throw some light on this.

The numbers below show the % of Trackitt applications yet to be approved and the number left to be approved.


----------- % ----- No.
---------- Not ---- Not
- PD ----- App. --- App.
Jan-08 -- 59.59% -- 115
Feb-08 -- 55.93% --- 99
Mar-08 -- 69.23% -- 108
Apr-08 -- 90.52% -- 105
May-08 -- 86.89% -- 106
Jun-08 -- 88.57% --- 93
Jul-08 -- 86.67% --- 78
Aug-08 -- 90.08% -- 118
Sep-08 -- 88.51% --- 77
Oct-08 -- 88.00% --- 88
Nov-08 -- 93.33% --- 98
Dec-08 -- 90.52% -- 105


The PERM figures (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-China-amp-India) show that there was indeed a spike in applications with January/February 2008 priority dates. April 2008 also looks higher than average.

This is all very interesting. Based on Spec's numbers above, we have the following by quarter. The applications actually taper off in Q3 and pick back up in Q4.
Q1- 332
Q2- 304
Q3- 273
Q4- 291

I guess bottom line is that nothing in the current projections change. Hopefully the June VB/ Demand Data will provide some more useful (and positive) info. I'd love to be one of those "normal" cases - PD+5yrs. If the current projections actually realize then I'll end up as PD+6.

PS: Spec - are you an accountant or an investment banker? If not, you should consider a career change :)

[MATT2012]

Thanks Spec for the PERM and Trackitt EB2I numbers.

I do have a few intresting observations from trackitt EB2-ROW for this fiscal. The data includes primary and dependant. Approvals are approvals for the Quarter not necessarily the applications from the same Quarter. Pending is pending from the same quarter.
Quarter - Applications- Approvals - Pending- Pending %

1st Quarter - 260 - 240 -62- 24%
2nd Quarter- 111 - 241- 55 - 50%

So far we had only one month in third quarter and number of applications are just 18 and approvals are 60. Both applications and approvals made some drops this month. Going by that statistics, EB2-ROW will have less approvals this quarter and next quarter. it may end up in 210 for the current quarter and 90 for the last quarter. 210 comes from all pending applications for last two quarters + 30 for April+60 already approved .if we allocate 30 applications for each month from May to July (30*3) around 90 approvals. By that logic 300 approvals in last two quarters. I am not sure whether I am day dreaming, but any thoughts appreciated..

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for the PERM and Trackitt EB2I numbers.

I do have a few intresting observations from trackitt EB2-ROW for this fiscal. The data includes primary and dependant. Approvals are approvals for the Quarter not necessarily the applications from the same Quarter. Pending is pending from the same quarter.
Quarter - Applications- Approvals - Pending- Pending %

1st Quarter - 260 - 240 -62- 24%
2nd Quarter- 111 - 241- 55 - 50%

So far we had only one month in third quarter and number of applications are just 18 and approvals are 60. Both applications and approvals made some drops this month. Going by that statistics, EB2-ROW will have less approvals this quarter and next quarter. it may end up in 210 for the current quarter and 90 for the last quarter. 210 comes from all pending applications for last two quarters + 30 for April+60 already approved .if we allocate 30 applications for each month from May to July (30*3) around 90 approvals. By that logic 300 approvals in last two quarters. I am not sure whether I am day dreaming, but any thoughts appreciated..Matt,

We are going to get into difficulties with the different ways that people count Trackitt applications, so I will not even try to analyze your figures. I assume you do mean ROW and not ROW/M/P.

I can only say what I am seeing.

I have kept monthly approval figures for several years in a consistent manner. You can find FY2013 vs FY2012 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1373-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2013-vs-FY2012), FY2012 vs FY2011 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/181-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2012-vs-FY2011), FY2011 vs FY2010 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs-FY2010) in the Trackitt Data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/61-Trackitt-Data) section.

I will say once again that I only count Primary Trackitt applicants because, in the "real world" there is a consistent 1:1 relationship to Dependents for EB2, while on Trackitt it is Many:1.

I also count both EB2 and EB2-NIW (who are significant for EB2-ROW) and make allowances for several other factors in the Trackitt Data.

For approvals to date (for all PD), I see

Q1 - 234
Q2 - 228

April - 58 at present, for a total of 520 approvals.

That compares to an average of slightly under 50 per month in each of FY2010 - FY2012.

So, to date, the EB2-ROW approvals have not yet reduced to "normal" levels, although they are now approaching that figure.

I have not kept detailed figures about pending cases each month. What I do remember is that there were about 250 pending at any one time while approvals were high earlier this FY. That number has now reduced to around 210-220 and will probably continue to fall.

Additions do seem to have slowed, but the number already pending, plus a reduced number still to come does appear to be enough to sustain fairly healthy approval numbers for the rest of FY2013, as long as USCIS continue to process them.

It will be interesting to see what the May approvals are. Only then do I feel I can make a better judgement.

[MATT2012]

Thanks Spec, the lower than expected 18 EB2- ROW additions for April confused me today morning.

I knew when I put the numbers, it was not exactly same as your calculations. Also did not mean to confuse anybody with a different calculation. I was just mentioning the latest trends of dropping numbers in EB2-ROW applications and approvals. I am in full agreement with your numbers and there is sufficent backlog of applications for this quarter, but in general the approvals for this quarter will be lower than second quarter. And if new additions continues to drop in the same fashion through out this quarter, last quarter there will be significant drops in trackitt EB2-ROW approvals.

I am also in agreement with the fact that the drop in last two quarters will only have a margnial impact in annual volume due to high approvals in the first two quarters.



Matt,

I will say once again that I only count Primary Trackitt applicants because, in the "real world" there is a consistent 1:1 relationship to Dependents for EB2, while on Trackitt it is Many:1.

I also count both EB2 and EB2-NIW (who are significant for EB2-ROW) and make allowances for several other factors in the Trackitt Data.

For approvals to date (for all PD), I see

Q1 - 234
Q2 - 228

April - 58 at present, for a total of 520 approvals.

That compares to an average of slightly under 50 per month in each of FY2010 - FY2012.

So, to date, the EB2-ROW approvals have not yet reduced to "normal" levels, although they are now approaching that figure.

I have not kept detailed figures about pending cases each month. What I do remember is that there were about 250 pending at any one time while approvals were high earlier this FY. That number has now reduced to around 210-220 and will probably continue to fall.

Additions do seem to have slowed, but the number already pending, plus a reduced number still to come does appear to be enough to sustain fairly healthy approval numbers for the rest of FY2013, as long as USCIS continue to process them.

[indiani]

If USCIS decides to move the dates starting July isnt there a risk of chaos like that happened last year, leaving some 2007/ early 2008 applicants and giving away later applicants. I understand there are thousands of preadjudicated cases but still they might send RFE's to update on EVL as dates froze for so long. Moreover if they cant handle giving away more than 5 thousand per month of approvals in addition to their usual approvals for rest of categories, there is a risk they might waste visas and send it back to FB to be applied for next year. i wish we have a way of communicating to CO and finding out the exact total approvals in all categories to date and also understanding why they are still waiting to move atleast to end of december which by all accounts seems to be rational.

[vizcard]

If USCIS decides to move the dates starting July isnt there a risk of chaos like that happened last year, leaving some 2007/ early 2008 applicants and giving away later applicants. I understand there are thousands of preadjudicated cases but still they might send RFE's to update on EVL as dates froze for so long. Moreover if they cant handle giving away more than 5 thousand per month of approvals in addition to their usual approvals for rest of categories, there is a risk they might waste visas and send it back to FB to be applied for next year. i wish we have a way of communicating to CO and finding out the exact total approvals in all categories to date and also understanding why they are still waiting to move atleast to end of december which by all accounts seems to be rational.

It's a tricky proposition for CO all around. He has to balance FIFO, not wasting visas and not exceeding quotas. Last year he was 1 for 3 - he didn't waste visas. I think he will err on the side of caution - wont waste visas and won't exceed quotas - even if they don't get FIFO.

[Niksammy]

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/forum/immigrant-issues/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues/120585-eb-2-india-any-chances-of-movement-in-june-vb?p=120589#post120589

Gurus,

Saw Ron Gotcher's response (above) to a question earlier today. Is there some information which just Ron Gotcher has access to or is this something other people are aware of? He mentioned something on similar lines after looking at May demand data. Did you guys see some red flags in last month's DD

[geeaarpee]

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/forum/immigrant-issues/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues/120585-eb-2-india-any-chances-of-movement-in-june-vb?p=120589#post120589

Gurus,

Saw Ron Gotcher's response (above) to a question earlier today. Is there some information which just Ron Gotcher has access to or is this something other people are aware of? He mentioned something on similar lines after looking at May demand data. Did you guys see some red flags in last month's DD

Thats a heart-breaking news :( Do we know the PDs of these so-called "just discovered" EB2-I cases?

[MATT2012]

Thats a heart-breaking news :( Do we know the PDs of these so-called "just discovered" EB2-I cases?
Oh!! that is indeed heart-breaking, We will have some information coming out in demand data and USICS inventory.
Thank you for posting.

[Niksammy]

Thats a heart-breaking news :( Do we know the PDs of these so-called "just discovered" EB2-I cases?

I think this is old news from meeting CO had with lawyers way back around 24 th Oct 2012. Even I was shocked after reading that piece of info. Used google and came across the article below.

See the article at : http://www.mygcvisa.com/uscis-articles/visa-bulletin-predictions-for-FY-2013.aspx

I follow Ron's forum. First Ron kept on telling folks on his forum (till Jan 2013) that dates will move well into 2009 by April 2013 and now this article- I guess he is pretty confused himself :)

[MATT2012]

I think this is old news from meeting CO had with lawyers way back around 24 th Oct 2012. Even I was shocked after reading that piece of info. Used google and came across the article below.

See the article at : http://www.mygcvisa.com/uscis-articles/visa-bulletin-predictions-for-FY-2013.aspx

I follow Ron's forum. First Ron kept on telling folks on his forum (till Jan 2013) that dates will move well into 2009 by April 2013 and now this article- I guess he is pretty confused himself :)
Nikksammy, the time stamp said today morning. You infact gave me close to a shocker..I will still wait for the demand data to be out..

[Niksammy]

I am assuming these 20000 PDs are people who applied after becoming current during 2012 before dates retrogressed.

Gurus like Q/Matt/Spec could confirm if my assumption is correct.

[MATT2012]

I am assuming these 20000 PDs are people who applied after becoming current during 2012 before dates retrogressed.

Gurus like Q/Matt/Spec could confirm if my assumption is correct.
The forum did say today, but the top part had a 2012 bulletin published. anyways. if the information is old, it is already in demand. The cumulative demand for EB2I in August,2012 was 22K and now it is 42K.

[Niksammy]

Nikksammy, the time stamp said today morning. You infact gave me close to a shocker..I will still wait for the demand data to be out..

Yes, the time stamp is for today. As I mentioned in earlier in my original post, Ron gave a similar answer on 11 Apr 2013 - one day after last month's VB.

Sorry for shocking you, but I had a similar reaction :( and decided to get opinion of Gurus on this forum.

[MATT2012]

Yes, the time stamp is for today. As I mentioned in earlier in my original post, Ron gave a similar answer on 11 Apr 2013 - one day after last month's VB.

Sorry for shocking you, but I had a similar reaction :( and decided to get opinion of Gurus on this forum.
Did Ron mention a new 20K number, when he gave you the reply last month?

[Niksammy]

Did Ron mention a new 20K number, when he gave you the reply last month?

I am just a silent reader on his forum. See the link for more details http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/forum/immigrant-issues/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues/19730-no-change-for-eb2-in-may-bulletin

Having followed his comments on this topic for last 8 months very closely, I can assure you that his responses have been extreme - talked about movement into 2010 for EB2 I till Jan 2013 and now this talk about discovery of additional 20000 visas by USCIS which were never reported to DoS

[MATT2012]

if the new applications are indeed discovered, then EB2I is doomed for the near future. I would like to see the data getting reflected in inventory and demand to fully believe.

I am just a silent reader on his forum. See the link for more details http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/forum/immigrant-issues/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues/19730-no-change-for-eb2-in-may-bulletin

Having followed his comments on this topic for last 8 months very closely, I can assure you that his responses have been extreme - talked about movement into 2010 for EB2 I till Jan 2013 and now this talk about discovery of additional 20000 visas by USCIS which were never reported to DoS

[Niksammy]

if the new applications are indeed discovered, then EB2I is doomed for the near future. I would like to see the data getting reflected in inventory and demand to fully believe.

We just need to wait till end of next week since June 2013 VB will have predictions for last quarter. We will also have DD and inventory available by end of this month.

I am confident that this demand has been already been baked into DD and it will be a non issue.

I do feel bad for creating a scare by re-posting Ron's post :(

[sbhagwat2000]

We just need to wait till end of next week since June 2013 VB will have predictions for last quarter. We will also have DD and inventory available by end of this month.

I am confident that this demand has been already been baked into DD and it will be a non issue.

I do feel bad for creating a scare by re-posting Ron's post :(

Guys I think we should ignore this. Ron has said things in the past that have been completely wrong. If before may dd there were 20000 unreported numbers why are they not added to may dd. I am confident dates Will move to at least 2007.

[indiani]

Ron is vague and rather somewhat misleading and here is why,
1. 20K must be the difference between 42-22 which got added when dates moved quickly and 42K in DD is already known, if he meant additional 20K in addition to 42K then during which period are these 20K?
2.when he meant short term, does it mean this entire fiscal yr or june /july?
3.no movement- means not even a month and we all know is close to impossible as even with no spillover from any category with the current DD it might move atleast a month (I am just trying to make an arguement why Ron's statement is misleading ) but in fact I believe it might move as many projected and in fact CO projected to early to mid 2008.
I have been following PD's for 6 yrs and this year every single bulletin and all the data and analysis put forth by various members and these are my conclusions and anyone can use my analysis of this news with some degree of skeptisism or critique but I like to see where and to what degree I am wrong.
what fascinates me however is on a thread on trackitt, looks like 2 more lawyers are saying no movement this fiscal, either they are wrong or something very very unusual happened which all of us might be shocked when we know about it. I just hope the lawyers are plain worng and misinformed

[Vkkpnm]

Strange that Q, Spec, Viz.. are silent on this. Getting scared.. :(

[Niksammy]

Indiani,

I concur with most of the observations you made. There is a thread on trackitt.com stating that this information of un-reported 20000 cases was available to lawyers way back on 7 March 2013.

Isnt it surprising that DD for May 2013 was updated one day after it was published to fix EB3 ROW numbers but these un-reported cases for EB2 I have not been updated till now?

I will be shocked if this information about 20000 EB2 cases is correct. I will like to think otherwise till we see numbers to back these claims in DD next week.

Regarding immigration lawyers, the less I comment, the better it would be

[MATT2012]

Indiani,

I concur with most of the observations you made. There is a thread on trackitt.com stating that this information of un-reported 20000 cases was available to lawyers way back on 7 March 2013.


Will you please provide the link to the trackitt thread you are mentioning?

[Kanmani]

There are two threads, one started in March and another some two hours ago.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1200715775/eb2i-to-possibly-retrogress-to-sep-1-2003-in-next-bulletin/page/1
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1228767707/no-eb2-india-movement-this-year-guaranteed/page/last_page

[indiani]

Indiani,

I concur with most of the observations you made. There is a thread on trackitt.com stating that this information of un-reported 20000 cases was available to lawyers way back on 7 March 2013.

Isnt it surprising that DD for May 2013 was updated one day after it was published to fix EB3 ROW numbers but these un-reported cases for EB2 I have not been updated till now?

I will be shocked if this information about 20000 EB2 cases is correct. I will like to think otherwise till we see numbers to back these claims in DD next week.

Regarding immigration lawyers, the less I comment, the better it would be

20K ron was mentioning is already added, after spending so much time during this process, I can tell you that as far as movements are concerned there aren't any lawyers who sit and crunch and analyse numbers, they just report any info from AILA meeting and rest is speculation.
I would urge anyone who quoates their attorneys or any other lawyer should give specifics and people can decide how much attention they need to pay to the news or predictions.

[gc_soon]

May DD didn't have a spike and thousands and thousands of cases added like Ron mentions.

"The demand data chart for May showed a significant spike in EB2 India cases at the USCIS."
"With this new data - the thousands and thousands of cases the USCIS "just suddenly found" - I doubt that there will be much movement the balance of this fiscal year."

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/forum/immigrant-issues/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues/19730-no-change-for-eb2-in-may-bulletin

Hopefully this is just Ron's prediction and his predictions have been extreme. usually optimistic.

[sandyn16]

I saw this in the old Murthy Nov 2012 predictions for FY 2013.
"Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2): India

The DOS has received more than 20,000 EB2 India cases from USCIS that are awaiting issuance of visa numbers. Under the current system, once the USCIS reviews a case and finds it appropriate for approval, the USCIS makes an automated request to the DOS for a visa number. If no number is available, the request is held by the DOS, awaiting action once a visa number for the particular case and priority date becomes available. These cases are referred to as preadjudicated."

http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/priority-date-predictions-for-fy13/

I wonder if this 20,000 number is the same one being referred here

[sandyn16]

Is this 20,000 number the same as one mentioned in murthy website in Nov 2012?

"The DOS has received more than 20,000 EB2 India cases from USCIS that are awaiting issuance of visa numbers. Under the current system, once the USCIS reviews a case and finds it appropriate for approval, the USCIS makes an automated request to the DOS for a visa number. If no number is available, the request is held by the DOS, awaiting action once a visa number for the particular case and priority date becomes available. These cases are referred to as preadjudicated."

http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/priority-date-predictions-for-fy13/

[indiani]

I hope next time when someone wants to spread any "NEWS" from Ron , its better to ask him to clarify and explain in detail before it spreads like wildfire to other forums.

I will await the june bulletin predictions for last quarter, if any released. if CO mentions No movement to movement of just couple of years , then that might be a reason to predict something very bleak otherwise still i would consider the projections by spec to bee the closest to reality.

[vizcard]

Q and Spec use facts and some well documented assumptions based on historic trends. Hearsay is never part of the equation. Lets just wait a few more days to see if any of this shows up in the demand data.

From my perspective, "finding" an additional 20k apps seems like a stretch as it defeats historical trends. I'm not saying its impossible but it doesn't pass my "sniff test".

[Spectator]

Q and Spec use facts and some well documented assumptions based on historic trends. Hearsay is never part of the equation. Lets just wait a few more days to see if any of this shows up in the demand data.

From my perspective, "finding" an additional 20k apps seems like a stretch as it defeats historical trends. I'm not saying its impossible but it doesn't pass my "sniff test".I am only going to make this single comment.

It does not pass my "sniff test" either for a number of reasons.

a) It is a completely unsubstantiated rumour. Ron Gotcher, who has a less than stellar track record of understanding in this area (but who has been a great source of information from AILA), has "seen" a huge increase in demand in the May DD that simply does not exist as far as I can see. He has provided no back up for this assertion. gc_soon has already mentioned this and it was a statement I didn't understand when Ron made it originally.

b) The other Trackitt user has previously said his attorneys are also saying this and that dates would retrogress earlier in the year. That did not happen.

c) An extra 20k would bring the number of EB2-I cases, as a result of last year's movement to to May 2010, to over 60k. That is an extremely high level based on the underlying PERM numbers and would require a very high Overall Ratio to achieve.

There are scenarios with high EB1, EB2-WW and high porting usage that could still lead to a very bad year and little movement. At the moment, that does not seem very likely, but suddenly finding 20k extra cases is in a different league of "unlikeliness" IMHO.

Finally, let's not shoot the messenger. We are all adult enough to make our own mind up about any information that might be posted. If people are dissuaded from posting what they find, we run the risk of missing some real nuggets of information.

The Demand Data should be out next week and (in particular) the next USCIS Inventory should be published before the end of the month. Let's see what they have to say.

[sbhagwat2000]

I am only going to make this single comment.

It does not pass my "sniff test" either for a number of reasons.

a) It is a completely unsubstantiated rumour. Ron Gotcher, who has a less than stellar track record of understanding in this area (but who has been a great source of information from AILA), has "seen" a huge increase in demand in the May DD that simply does not exist as far as I can see. He has provided no back up for this assertion. gc_soon has already mentioned this and it was a statement I didn't understand when Ron made it originally.

b) The other Trackitt user has previously said his attorneys are also saying this and that dates would retrogress earlier in the year. That did not happen.

c) An extra 20k would bring the number of EB2-I cases, as a result of last year's movement to to May 2010, to over 60k. That is an extremely high level based on the underlying PERM numbers and would require a very high Overall Ratio to achieve.

There are scenarios with high EB1, EB2-WW and high porting usage that could still lead to a very bad year and little movement. At the moment, that does not seem very likely, but suddenly finding 20k extra cases is in a different league of "unlikeliness" IMHO.

Finally, let's not shoot the messenger. We are all adult enough to make our own mind up about any information that might be posted. If people are dissuaded from posting what they find, we run the risk of missing some real nuggets of information.

The Demand Data should be out next week and (in particular) the next USCIS Inventory should be published before the end of the month. Let's see what they have to say.


Spec,

About the scenarios where EB2WW will basically eat up EB1 spillover giving nothing to India. I was looking at FY 2008. That year after the 2007 fiasco EB 2 WW basically consumed 48000 visas. I was looking which countries contributed to this and found basically S. Korea and ofcourse P and M. Do you know why that happened that year and do you see 48000 visas getting approved for EB2 again like that year? 2008- EB2 I got 14000 but that was cause of EB5 and EB1 which this year have high demand. I hope you can provide some hope

[redsox2009]

Quick question, Say a person applied I-485 under EB3 category and EAD kicked off for this 485. Later that person applied for PERM after moving to second company, now what would be the CLASS_OF_ADMISSION in PERM report for this person's position.

I see Parloee as CLASS_OF_ADMISSION in PERM report and more number of Indians has applied under this category. Trying to understand the analogy between Parloee and EB2 Upgrades.

[erikbond101]

PERM number do not support 20K extra numbers "suddenly found" between July 2007 to April 2010. (34 months)

19,726 GC given in FY2012 + 40000 pending inventory in demand data(34 months). So 60 K is already counted and most of approvals are 2007 and 2008.

If we assume PERM data ratio 4:1 for EB2I:EB3I per year. (very high assumption for 2007, 08, 09 and 2010)
60 K is total number in ball park range and with above ratio 48 K numbers can be EB2I certified PERM

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

Another 12K may be porting in past 2 years counted/preadjudicated.

So Math do not support these 20K number "suddenly found". (up to 5K may be possible )
Murthy's mention of 20K is different from Ron Gotcher and does not say that it was not counted.

My 2 cents.

[qesehmk]

Guys

Sorry for being out of pocket for quite some time. I read this over the weekend and now I got the time to pen down some thoughts. Here are my thoughts on the 20K cases rumour.

First - lawyers are not at all conversant with numbers and simulations that we do.
Two - lawyers have an incentive to create fear
Three - I am fairly certain that a lot of lawyers and other people read this forum and then reproduce the info in different forms on other forums.

Bottomline - I have not seen or heard anything that substantiates 20K rumour. So relax. Another strong reason I would definitely not believe 20K number is because USCIS has really improved a lot under Mr. Khatri in terms of their operations as well as responsiveness. In the old days it would be possible that there are 20K cases lying around somewhere. But not today.

So please put a stop on this discussion and lets not scare people. Agree w Spec that whoever posted it first - did so in good faith - so lets not beat the guy.

[ChampU]

Guys

Sorry for being out of pocket for quite some time. I read this over the weekend and now I got the time to pen down some thoughts. Here are my thoughts on the 20K cases rumour.

First - lawyers are not at all conversant with numbers and simulations that we do.
Two - lawyers have an incentive to create fear
Three - I am fairly certain that a lot of lawyers and other people read this forum and then reproduce the info in different forms on other forums.

Bottomline - I have not seen or heard anything that substantiates 20K rumour. So relax. Another strong reason I would definitely not believe 20K number is because USCIS has really improved a lot under Mr. Khatri in terms of their operations as well as responsiveness. In the old days it would be possible that there are 20K cases lying around somewhere. But not today.

So please put a stop on this discussion and lets not scare people. Agree w Spec that whoever posted it first - did so in good faith - so lets not beat the guy.


No wonder, folks on this forum like you, Q.. You have your GC in hand and yet you take the time and effort to answer questions and provide insight to folks waiting in the queue.. And that too at a unlikely hour of 4:30 AM on a Sunday night..

You rock dude!!

[pdmay2008]

Guys

Sorry for being out of pocket for quite some time. I read this over the weekend and now I got the time to pen down some thoughts. Here are my thoughts on the 20K cases rumour.

First - lawyers are not at all conversant with numbers and simulations that we do.
Two - lawyers have an incentive to create fear
Three - I am fairly certain that a lot of lawyers and other people read this forum and then reproduce the info in different forms on other forums.

Bottomline - I have not seen or heard anything that substantiates 20K rumour. So relax. Another strong reason I would definitely not believe 20K number is because USCIS has really improved a lot under Mr. Khatri in terms of their operations as well as responsiveness. In the old days it would be possible that there are 20K cases lying around somewhere. But not today.

So please put a stop on this discussion and lets not scare people. Agree w Spec that whoever posted it first - did so in good faith - so lets not beat the guy.

I agree with Q's comments above. In these days USCIS and DOS are indeed very cautious about these numbers. I hope this month DD and VB will have some information on future movement. Hang in there... I see light at the end of the tunnel, But not sure I can reach end of the tunnel before this fiscal year. Let's hope for the best, this has been the practice for 5 years now.

[redsox2009]

PERM Second Quarter numbers were released.

Report has both Good Numbers and Bad Numbers

Good Numbers,
for last two quarters in 2013

Only 7465 certified are Non-Indians and Non-Chinese. Out of these 7465, based on salary and job level 3911 falls under EB2 Category. Multiply by 3 close to 12k, which is the number we are expecting per month for ROW under EB2 category.

Bad Numbers:-
Out of total 21205 certified/certified-expired, 12404 certified/certified-expired cases belong to Indians. Which is greater 58%.
Out the 12404 Indian certified/certified-expired cases, based on job level and salary more than 80% of them fall under EB2 Category.

If a EB3 applicant has applied for 485, and trying to upgrade to EB2 and if this person CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee, then 388 Indian applicants in last two quarters got upgraded. 16 Non Indians got upgraded. (I'm assuming that if the applicant is on EAD and applied for second GC, then applicant CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee; I could be wrong)

[sbhagwat2000]

PERM Second Quarter numbers were released.

Report has both Good Numbers and Bad Numbers

Good Numbers,
for last two quarters in 2013

Only 7465 certified are Non-Indians and Non-Chinese. Out of these 7465, based on salary and job level 3911 falls under EB2 Category. Multiply by 3 close to 12k, which is the number we are expecting per month for ROW under EB2 category.

Bad Numbers:-
Out of total 21205 certified/certified-expired, 12404 certified/certified-expired cases belong to Indians. Which is greater 58%.
Out the 12404 Indian certified/certified-expired cases, based on job level and salary more than 80% of them fall under EB2 Category.

If a EB3 applicant has applied for 485, and trying to upgrade to EB2 and if this person CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee, then 388 Indian applicants in last two quarters got upgraded. 16 Non Indians got upgraded. (I'm assuming that if the applicant is on EAD and applied for second GC, then applicant CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee; I could be wrong)

how does the 7465 number compare with similar quarter last year. do you know?

[sbhagwat2000]

June DD is out- I dont see any trace of the the extra 20000 visas Ron was talking about. so we can put that to bed

[Spectator]

I have updated all the PERM posts in Facts & Data with the Q2 FY2013 DOL data released today.

[Spectator]

how does the 7465 number compare with similar quarter last year. do you know?

Here's the comparison I get for H1 comparing FY2012 to FY2013 for Certified PERM applications.

ROW

FY2012 - 5,905
FY2013 - 6,442 (+ 9%)

Mexico

FY2012 - 404
FY2013 - 460 (+ 14%)

Philippines

FY2012 - 488
FY2013 - 563 (+ 15%)

China

FY2012 - 926
FY2013 - 1,336 (+ 44%)

India

FY2012 - 8,859
FY2013 - 12,404 (+ 40%)

Total

FY2012 - 16,582
FY2013 - 21,205 (+ 28%)

I would note that approx 70% of PERM certifications in FY2012 came in H2.

[vizcard]

Based on the new demand data it looks like about 17K spillover will be needed to clear the demand till June 2008 for EB2IC. There might be some additional porting depending on when dates start to move. So right now I'd say June 2008 (i.e. COD July 1,2008) is still a possibility.

[geevikram]

Based on the new demand data it looks like about 17K spillover will be needed to clear the demand till June 2008 for EB2IC. There might be some additional porting depending on when dates start to move. So right now I'd say June 2008 (i.e. COD July 1,2008) is still a possibility.

Come on Viz.. give me 3 more days. It can go up to July 7 2008. (Tsk Tsk, my PD is July 3, 2008)

[vizcard]

Come on Viz.. give me 3 more days. It can go up to July 7 2008. (Tsk Tsk, my PD is July 3, 2008)

If I had that kind of power, I would say Aug 22 so that I could be current as well :)

On a more serious note, there is always a +/- factor here. So you very well could make it in considering rarely all demand will get approved in a timely manner.

[SmileBaba]

Based on current demand data, I was wondering how early predictions of DOS estimating a spillover of 13,000 to Eb2I stands at the moment. I believe it should now be more than 13,000

http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/priority-date-predictions-for-fy13/

Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13. This is subject to change - either up or down - depending upon the usage in the other categories, as explained here.

Please note that User OpenAccount did mention this in post # 535.

[vizcard]

Based on current demand data, I was wondering how early predictions of DOS estimating a spillover of 13,000 to Eb2I stands at the moment. I believe it should now be more than 13,000

http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/
Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13. This is subject to change - either up or down - depending upon the usage in the other categories, as explained here.

Please note that User OpenAccount did mention this in post # 535.

Going by the date in the link (11/2/12), I don't think that's relevant anymore. A "guess" 2 months in to the fiscal year is hardly applicable 9 months in to the year. The 6K reduction between FY12 and FY13 mentioned would simply be from EB2ROW retrogression. It did not take in to account FB overflow, potential increased usage in EB1C, EB4 and EB5 and porting. We may still end up with 13K spillover but the math would be different.

[nishant2200]

June VB prediction: most likely same like last. Good news is this might be last one like this. Q4 starts from July VB, whence the fun should begin.

[indiani]

June VB prediction: most likely same like last. Good news is this might be last one like this. Q4 starts from July VB, whence the fun should begin.

preditions for the last Q may be metioned in the bulletin, and I think movement almost might be until 2007 and most likeley no movement.
But mention of spillovers and future movements is good enough for many of us waiting for yrs.

[mailmvr]

Quick dumb questions:

1)The demand data shown in the USICS bulletin, is it cumulative year wise?

It show EB2 till Jan 1, 2013 as 48,750 so is this cumulative figure ?


2)is Demand data taken from I-140 approved count for from I485 application?

I know these question might have answered in the forum, but as a ready reference
can gurus please answer.

[absd101]

I have been reading a lot of sites and there predictions. Based on some very good analysis by some guys on this site I think Eb2I Will get between 15k to 19K Spill Over.

The Spillover will start applying from July. June will have no movement but will give direction on next 3 months.

[Spectator]

Quick dumb questions:

1)The demand data shown in the USICS bulletin, is it cumulative year wise?

It show EB2 till Jan 1, 2013 as 48,750 so is this cumulative figure ?mailmvr,

Yes, the figures are cumulative.

The 48,750 for all EB2 breaks down to

Pre 2005 ---- 450
2005 -------- 750
2006 ------ 1,175
2007 ------ 5,550
2008 ----- 18,300
2009 ----- 16,525
Post 2009 - 6,000

Total ---- 48,750


2)is Demand data taken from I-140 approved count for from I485 application?

I know these question might have answered in the forum, but as a ready reference
can gurus please answer.

The Demand Data is the number of "documentarily qualified" cases reported to the Visa Office.

For AOS that is the number preadjudicated I-485 where USCIS have made a request to DOS for a visa number (and it could not be granted due to retrogression).

The definition for Consular Processed cases is a bit more vague, but is certainly no earlier than when the Fee has been paid and may (more likely) be when NVC have notified the Consulate and they have completed their administrative processes.

[kd2008]

Hey Spec, I thought we might see some new filings for EB3-ROW from the start of May but there are hardly any. How long is the typical time period when people start adding these cases to trackitt?

[Spectator]

Hey Spec, I thought we might see some new filings for EB3-ROW from the start of May but there are hardly any. How long is the typical time period when people start adding these cases to trackitt?kd,

I wondered if anyone else would notice the lack of new EB3-ROW Trackitt cases.

It isn't just since May.

Since the beginning of the FY, there have only been 8 new EB3-ROW primary cases added. Only 1 of those is post July 2007 and only 2 are even in 2007.

To answer your question, it can take several months to get a reasonable idea of numbers, but additions usually start immediately.

I am very surprised to see such low numbers. At the moment, it appears EB3-ROW have abandoned Trackitt.

[sbhagwat2000]

kd,

I wondered if anyone else would notice the lack of new EB3-ROW Trackitt cases.

It isn't just since May.

Since the beginning of the FY, there have only been 8 new EB3-ROW primary cases added. Only 1 of those is post July 2007 and only 2 are even in 2007.

To answer your question, it can take several months to get a reasonable idea of numbers, but additions usually start immediately.

I am very surprised to see such low numbers. At the moment, it appears EB3-ROW have abandoned Trackitt.

Is it possible spec that eb3 I will get a hefty spillover. Is that possible.

[Spectator]

Is it possible spec that eb3 I will get a hefty spillover. Is that possible.sbhagwat,

Don't confuse lack of Trackitt cases with lack of actual cases.

Is it possible? Yes it is possible.

Is it likely. Probably not.

May VB AOS cases have 5 months to be processed and adjudicated by USCIS, which should be plenty of time. Even early June VB cases will have a fair chance of being approved.

In addition, unlike EB2, EB3-ROW/C/M have significant numbers of CP cases (ROW - 15-20%, China - 50-60%, Mexico - 5-7%). Those are entirely within DOS control to make documentarily qualified and approve. If USCIS don't process AOS cases fast enough, DOS can push the COD further to ensure there are sufficient CP cases to use the available visas. That's partly why July 2007 happened. Whether DOS would do that is open to debate, but it is an option available to them.

[erikbond101]

Game of Spillovers:

Pending I-1485 data from May 2010 was showing around 15.9 K waiting to be greened till May 8 2006. We received spillover of 16.9 K in FY 2010.
Pending I-1485 data from May/June 2011 was showing around 17.2 K waiting to be greened till April 5 2007. We received spillover of 21.2 K in FY 2011.

FY 2012 is irrelevant.

If pending I-485 data this month (May 2013) will show similar number as Jan 2013 and we have around 13.5 K waiting till May 1 2008. We may reach this date with 16.0-16.5 K spillover in Oct 2013.

[indiani]

Can we ask the USCIS/DOS about the number of approved GC in various categories for the given year under FOIA, as there won't be any privacy issues involved I wonder what reason can they show for not releasing it and if we have the info, atleast we can make very close prediction and moreover even ask them to consider advancing dates using spillovers.
I understand it might take a while to get the reply back but not sure whether they would even bother giving the number of approved cases

[vizcard]

Can we ask the USCIS/DOS about the number of approved GC in various categories for the given year under FOIA, as there won't be any privacy issues involved I wonder what reason can they show for not releasing it and if we have the info, atleast we can make very close prediction and moreover even ask them to consider advancing dates using spillovers.
I understand it might take a while to get the reply back but not sure whether they would even bother giving the number of approved cases

First that request would need to go to the DOS not USCIS (which is DHS). In a properly worded request, they would have to provide that info. Also, at this point they would only be able to provide Q1 and Q2 numbers.... maybe they could even do up to April.

Second, I've thought about this before but I remember there being some reason why it didnt make sense at that time. But obviously its a different moment in time.

[civilengineer]

Can admins delete/archive everything except first and last few pages on this thread? Is there a way to get to the last page without navigating to the discussion and clicking on "last" button?

[sssbpgmgc]

Why is the delay on VB? CO thinking hard to move the dates?
Usually it comes by 2nd Friday of the month right?

[Pedro Gonzales]

Why is the delay on VB? CO thinking hard to move the dates?
Usually it comes by 2nd Friday of the month right?

Actually, what i find more intriguing is the amount of time between the release of the demand data and the release of the VB. Nishant2000 used to keep track of the release dates and tried to analyze them to see if there was a pattern. I don't think that he found anything statistically significant.

[redsox2009]

Actually, what i find more intriguing is the amount of time between the release of the demand data and the release of the VB. Nishant2000 used to keep track of the release dates and tried to analyze them to see if there was a pattern. I don't think that he found anything statistically significant.

I thought there is a pattern, when ever the DD was release ahead of 8th day of month, CO used to move dates or atleast VB used to come on time, i.e. 10th day of the month.

[redsox2009]

Visa Bulletin for June over Phone is released, So far only family dates are released over phone.

F1 22APR06
F2A 8JUN11
F2B 8Jul05
F3 01SEP02
F4 01MAY01

[pdmay2008]

Visa Bulletin for June over Phone is released, So far only family dates are released over phone.

F1 22APR06
F2A 8JUN11
F2B 8Jul05
F3 01SEP02
F4 01MAY01

It's weird.. Also the messagae quality is too bad and looks like he dropped the phone on the floor at the end of the call.

[geeaarpee]

June Bulletin out - no change for Eb2I

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5953.html

[Spectator]

01SEP08 for EB3-ROW

That's quite good progress.


D. EMPLOYMENT THIRD PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY

The Employment-based Third preference category cut-off date for most countries has advanced significantly for a second month in a row. This recent movement of the dates is not indicative of what can be expected in the future. Rapid forward movement of cut-off dates is often followed by a dramatic increase in demand for numbers within three to six months. Once such demand begins to materialize the cut-off date movement will begin to slow, or even stop for a period of time.

No change or update for EB2-I in Q4 unfortunately.

2 weeks movement for EB3-I to 08JAN03.

EB3-P only moves one week to 22SEP06

[suninphx]

So now EB-3 China is ahead of EB-2 China !!

[pdmay2008]

01SEP08 for EB3-ROW

That's quite good progress.



No change or update for EB2-I in Q4 unfortunately.

2 weeks movement for EB3-I to 08JAN03.

EB3-P only moves one week to 22SEP06

China EB3 is ahead of China EB2. I think EB2 China should downgrade it to EB3 to get GC faster with porting.

[gc_soon]

I wasn't expecting movement for EB2-I. But no notes about upcoming movements is disappointing. Looks like CO himself is very cautious and doesn't want to commit anything.

[Spectator]

I wasn't expecting movement for EB2-I. But no notes about upcoming movements is disappointing. Looks like CO himself is very cautious and doesn't want to commit anything.gc_soon,

I am disappointed too.

At the same time, if I am honest with myself, I don't think he has sufficient information yet to make any prediction.

[drugoi]

01SEP08 for EB3-ROW

That's quite good progress.




Do you think that CO will move dates next month? I missed by 15 days. :(

[natvyas]

I wasn't expecting movement for EB2-I. But no notes about upcoming movements is disappointing. Looks like CO himself is very cautious and doesn't want to commit anything.

This tells me that one of the following two is possible:

1) instead of moving the dates forward gradually, he is going to do it in 2 rapid movements: This will not help the porters but would allow the dates to move further ahead.

2) The dates are not going to move at all owing to some hidden demand.

Regards
Nat

[Spectator]

This tells me that one of the following two is possible:

1) instead of moving the dates forward gradually, he is going to do it in 2 rapid movements: This will not help the porters but would allow the dates to move further ahead.

2) The dates are not going to move at all owing to some hidden demand.

Regards
NatLet's be pragmatic about this.

a) EB2-WW approval numbers in Q3 to date have remained high.

b) June is the final month of Q3. CO may well have the 27% overall limit to consider.

c) Even if you are in the camp that believes porting cases are already in the DD, then there are 450 EB2-I cases reported with a PD before 2005. If (b) is in play, virtually no movement would have been possible.

d) CO needs more time to assess demand before making movements. Last year, this was the time of year when EB1 approvals really began ramping up.

For those with later PDs, a later (and bigger) movement is really far more beneficial.

[infoseek]

Fact that EB3 china has advanced more than its EB2 counterpart might also indicate upcoming EB2 I/C movement that will overshoot the EB3 China's cut off date. There is definitely no incentive for eb3c to port... not sure if it was a calculated effort to get it to this state but if that's approach CO is taking then .........like Nat says, it's possible that dates may advance rapidly in a short burst rather than over a couple of months.

[qesehmk]

Again ... quite a bland visa bulletin that doesn't reveal much. EB3 ROW movement is surprising. It could point to very very significant porting in EB3ROW.
I haven't calculated that porting - yet. But such porting could seriously threaten EB2I date movement during fourth quarter.

[Spectator]

Fact that EB3 china has advanced more than its EB2 counterpart might also indicate upcoming EB2 I/C movement that will overshoot the EB3 China's cut off date. There is definitely no incentive for eb3c to port... not sure if it was a calculated effort to get it to this state but if that's approach CO is taking then .........like Nat says, it's possible that dates may advance rapidly in a short burst rather than over a couple of months.infoseek,

I think that is just a quirk due to the need to build up an inventory for EB3-C, since applications to July 2007 have now virtually run out.

If you compare it to the 01MAY10 that EB2-C reached last year, it is still nowhere close.

Once the dates retrogress back, EB2-C will be ahead of EB3-C.

[gc_soon]

First time, when EB2-I has not moved for 3 quarters in a row.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf

[gc_soon]

Again ... quite a bland visa bulletin that doesn't reveal much. EB3 ROW movement is surprising. It could point to very very significant porting in EB3ROW.
I haven't calculated that porting - yet. But such porting could seriously threaten EB2I date movement during fourth quarter.
Q, but anyway EB3 ROW would not have much demand after July 2007 right? Whether porting or not, as CO said, this movement seems to be to generate demand.

[Spectator]

Again ... quite a bland visa bulletin that doesn't reveal much. EB3 ROW movement is surprising. It could point to very very significant porting in EB3ROW.
I haven't calculated that porting - yet. But such porting could seriously threaten EB2I date movement during fourth quarter.Q.

I agree it is rather bland.

The EB3 movement was not a surprise to me. I thought it could be anywhere in the July to December 2008 range. CO, as with EB2-IC last year, needs to build a future inventory before he has to retrogress the dates. The June DD only showed 450 pre July 2007 cases left.

ROW porting appears to be about 3k per year based on EB2 approvals to date. Philippines certainly has some, but I can't put a figure on it. I have no idea about Mexico.

IMO, the vast majority of porting still appears to come from India and dwarfs everything else.

[Spectator]

Do you think that CO will move dates next month? I missed by 15 days. :(drugoi,

I'll eat my metaphorical hat if you are not Current in the July VB! :)

[sbhagwat2000]

drugoi,

I'll eat my metaphorical hat if you are not Current in the July VB! :)

No movement in EB2I was expected. whats dissappointing is there are no predictions.

Spec - How do you see the movement in coming months? Its time for a prediction from you buddy . Please provide some insights

[qesehmk]

gc_soon & spec - if only looks at 485 inventory then what you say makes sense. But EB3 has huge NVC demand as well - almost 100K.

Now - to be fair - not all of that is ROW. 21 is India, 5 is china, 37(!!) is philines and 18 is ROW. So you can see why philines is not moving with rest of the world EB3. But even 18K of ROW NVC coupled with ROW 37 or so 485 demand = 55K.

Now a movement into mid 2007 was mathematically possible which is what whereismygc software predicted. But movement beyond 2007 requires between 10-20K ROW porting or rejections.

I don't see those many rejections. So it tends to make me believe that ROW probably has much higher porting than 3K.


Q, but anyway EB3 ROW would not have much demand after July 2007 right? Whether porting or not, as CO said, this movement seems to be to generate demand.


Q.

I agree it is rather bland.

The EB3 movement was not a surprise to me. I thought it could be anywhere in the July to December 2008 range. CO, as with EB2-IC last year, needs to build a future inventory before he has to retrogress the dates. The June DD only showed 450 pre July 2007 cases left.

ROW porting appears to be about 3k per year based on EB2 approvals to date. Philippines certainly has some, but I can't put a figure on it. I have no idea about Mexico.

IMO, the vast majority of porting still appears to come from India and dwarfs everything else.

[flexan]

Hello Guys,

This is my first post to this forum. This forum was introduced to me by my cousin and ever since then I've been following this forum but never had a chance to contribute. The information being shared on this forum is incredible I must say, especially from gurus like Spec/Q/Matt/Veni etc. Thanks a ton for bringing so much information to this community. I have two quick question guys although it might sound dumb.

1. Is the demand data listed in the monthly VB are applications waiting for visa no to be available? or is it the total no of applications with I-140 approved and waiting to file 485?

2. I've been keeping track of the EB-2I demand data since March 2013. The Demand then was 42,400 until 01/12 and now it is at 42,925. How can this increase when EB2-I dates are stagnated at 01 Sep 04?

[natvyas]

Let's be pragmatic about this.

a) EB2-WW approval numbers in Q3 to date have remained high.

b) June is the final month of Q3. CO may well have the 27% overall limit to consider.

c) Even if you are in the camp that believes porting cases are already in the DD, then there are 450 EB2-I cases reported with a PD before 2005. If (b) is in play, virtually no movement would have been possible.

d) CO needs more time to assess demand before making movements. Last year, this was the time of year when EB1 approvals really began ramping up.

For those with later PDs, a later (and bigger) movement is really far more beneficial.

Spectator - This tells me by the time the VB for July would be due, the CO might or might not be in a position to make a decision on total movement for the year since 10 days would be too short a time for him to take stalk of the numbers. So I suspect that his commentary in the July bulletin would be one with lot of words and little insight. Correspondinly the movement in July would be guarded.

The underlying assumption is that there are sufficient to make these movements.

Regards
Nat

[geeaarpee]

Viz, Matt - wats up? No comments on the new VB or Q4 yet!

[MATT2012]

Viz, Matt - wats up? No comments on the new VB or Q4 yet!

Was a little disappointed, but I have not lost my optimism.

Disappointment was not because dates did not move for EB2-I, it was purely due to lack of clarity/guidance. Yes there are a plenty reasons for not giving guidance. But it would have been helpful. As Spec pointed out, CO needs to consider a lot aspects in providing any guidance officially in visa bulletin.

Regarding EB3-ROW, It is on demand building mode, so logic is no more in play. Again the same applies to EB3- China. Now with respect to EB3-I, it could very well be more visas in play. Not sure at this point.

Regarding EB2-I, there is still new demand showing up before the existing cut off date, though it has considerably reduced. The good part is the approvals are happening, which means visas are availaible. I still think early 2008 is possible. I have noticed some acceleration in processing times both in EB2-ROW and EB1, which could indirectly affect EB2-I, if it continues.

Regarding EB2-ROW new applications in trackitt, there are drops. But it is not a clear indicator.

Matt

[geeaarpee]

Was a little disappointed, but I have not lost my optimism.

Disappointment was not because dates did not move for EB2-I, it was purely due to lack of clarity/guidance. Yes there are a plenty reasons for not giving guidance. But it would have been helpful. As Spec pointed out, CO needs to consider a lot aspects in providing any guidance officially in visa bulletin.

Regarding EB3-ROW, It is on demand building mode, so logic is no more in play. Again the same applies to EB3- China. Now with respect to EB3-I, it could very well be more visas in play. Not sure at this point.

Regarding EB2-I, there is still new demand showing up before the existing cut off date, though it has considerably reduced. The good part is the approvals are happening, which means visas are availaible. I still think early 2008 is possible. I have noticed some acceleration in processing times both in EB2-ROW and EB1, which could indirectly affect EB2-I, if it continues.

Regarding EB2-ROW new applications in trackitt, there are drops. But it is not a clear indicator.

Matt

Thanks Matt!

Few Questions:

1) Is CIR a reason for the lack of clarity/guidance from CO or does it have anything to do with the date movements in Q4 at all (specific to EB2I)?
2) Do you think dates will move for Eb2I in July or only in August/Sep?
3) If July, what is the probability of a new 485 filed in July being approved this fiscal (Read somewhere here or Trackitt about new 485s getting approved in < 3 months time)?

[MATT2012]

1) Is CIR a reason for the lack of clarity/guidance from CO or does it have anything to do with the date movements in Q4 at all (specific to EB2I)?
High level of EB2-WW approvals may be the primary reason, rest everything is secondary.

2) Do you think dates will move for Eb2I in July or only in August/Sep?

I still believe September will be used as a buffer month to avoid visa wastage etc., So the major movement should be in July or August. it could also be July and August.
3) If July, what is the probability of a new 485 filed in July being approved this fiscal (Read somewhere here or Trackitt about new 485s getting approved in < 3 months time)?

You are correct, there are approvals happening in two to three months. As far as EB2I is concerned, it may not work. As EB3 ROW has gone ahead, the resources of USICS/background checks will be stretched starting this month. There is a very rare chance for a new EB2I 485 to get approved this fiscal be it filed in July or August.

[gc_soon]

1) Is CIR a reason for the lack of clarity/guidance from CO or does it have anything to do with the date movements in Q4 at all (specific to EB2I)?
High level of EB2-WW approvals may be the primary reason, rest everything is secondary.


Matt, do you see evidence of high level of EB2-WW approvals in Trackitt or elsewhere? From the earlier discussions in the thread, my understanding was that EB2-WW approvals have actually slowed. Any estimate on EB2-WW consumption so far and for the FY?

[NOV2007]

To all Guru's,

I have been following this forum from past 1 month, and thanks for your valuable analysis and predictions you guys make that keep our hopes alive.
Am just thinking from one angle, where in previous predictions made by USCIS/DOS that EB2I dates would retrogress to what it is now during JuneVB. But,it didn't happen so I guess we are still in a good shape in EB2 prediction what all you Guru's have made in the begining of this topic.
But other hand am little concerned with USCIS/DOS predictions, in the begining of this FY CO said PD will move to mid of 2008 in the Q4. Now considering above predictions, does this prediction still holds good?
Guru's I have a EB2I PD of NOV2007, do I still have any hopes of filing I485 this year.
Thanks in advance for your reply.





1) Is CIR a reason for the lack of clarity/guidance from CO or does it have anything to do with the date movements in Q4 at all (specific to EB2I)?
High level of EB2-WW approvals may be the primary reason, rest everything is secondary.

2) Do you think dates will move for Eb2I in July or only in August/Sep?

I still believe September will be used as a buffer month to avoid visa wastage etc., So the major movement should be in July or August. it could also be July and August.
3) If July, what is the probability of a new 485 filed in July being approved this fiscal (Read somewhere here or Trackitt about new 485s getting approved in < 3 months time)?

You are correct, there are approvals happening in two to three months. As far as EB2I is concerned, it may not work. As EB3 ROW has gone ahead, the resources of USICS/background checks will be stretched starting this month. There is a very rare chance for a new EB2I 485 to get approved this fiscal be it filed in July or August.

[isantem]

So now EB-3 China is ahead of EB-2 China !!

EB-2 China how has priority date 14 July 2008 will get his GC in 3 months. EB-3 China how has priority 14 July 2008 will get his GC not earlier than 2014 summer. Is just seams like EB3C is ahead, in reality EB3C will retrogress soon.

[Spectator]

gc_soon & spec - if only looks at 485 inventory then what you say makes sense. But EB3 has huge NVC demand as well - almost 100K.

Now - to be fair - not all of that is ROW. 21 is India, 5 is china, 37(!!) is philines and 18 is ROW. So you can see why philines is not moving with rest of the world EB3. But even 18K of ROW NVC coupled with ROW 37 or so 485 demand = 55K.

Now a movement into mid 2007 was mathematically possible which is what whereismygc software predicted. But movement beyond 2007 requires between 10-20K ROW porting or rejections.

I don't see those many rejections. So it tends to make me believe that ROW probably has much higher porting than 3K.Q,

I have mentioned in previous posts that EB3 Cut Off Date movement is far more complicated than EB2-IC last year due to the % of Consular Processed cases. Since they can be made documentarily qualified and approved far faster than a new AOS case, it actually makes more sense to move dates very quickly, then retrogress them to control the number of late PD CP cases that can be approved. If CO wishes to consider this, he doesn't have more than a further one month (at most) to continue moving the dates forward. In contrast EB2 has virtually no CP cases, so it was not a consideration last year.

I see 28.5k EB3 CP cases for EB3-ROW/C/M (excluding EW) at NVC in November 2012. They cover a PD range of about 6 years (on average about 5k per PD Year).

If USCIS process new AOS cases too slowly, CO has the ability to approve later CP cases to avoid wastage of the EB3-ROW/C/M allocation.


Over the period FY2011 to date EB2-ROW has shown the following average (range) [this year to date] for the following :

Porting - 7.9% (6.15% to 10.85%) [6.15%]
Indian Nationality/ROW Chargeability - 10.5% (8.9% to 13.5%) [8.9%]
NIW - 14.4% (10.6% to 18.1%) [18.1%]

As with EB2-IC last year, just because a given Cut Off Date movement bring in a certain number of new applications, that is not the same as all those applications being approved. In fact, as with EB2-IC, the majority of the new EB3 applications will not be approved this FY - they are merely a future inventory that will be depleted over several years. How long depends on how far CO ultimately decides to move the Cut Off Dates.

[Spectator]

Matt, do you see evidence of high level of EB2-WW approvals in Trackitt or elsewhere? From the earlier discussions in the thread, my understanding was that EB2-WW approvals have actually slowed. Any estimate on EB2-WW consumption so far and for the FY?gc_soon,

You can find the monthly Trackitt figures and my estimate of what that may convert to here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1373-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2013-vs-FY2012).

ROW means just that - it does not include China, Mexico or Philippines. Trackitt data for those Countries is not in sufficient quantity to be reliable.

[indiani]

gc_soon,

You can find the monthly Trackitt figures and my estimate of what that may convert to here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1373-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2013-vs-FY2012).

ROW means just that - it does not include China, Mexico or Philippines. Trackitt data for those Countries is not in sufficient quantity to be reliable.

Spec,
can we make an assumption that EB2 ROW is not going to require any spillover other than FB visas which are already added to it?. The reason being there is no mention of potential cut off date.

what concerns me is the fact that even though 45,188 is the total allocated for EB2WW, the numbers that you have calculated might exceed 45K (Requiring upto 52K), in that case, can the EB1/EB4 spillover could mostly be consumed by EB2ROW and we can have a scenario of almost negligable spillover to India.
In other words if the EB2ROW demand remains very high , will the spillover from EB1/4 applied across all EB2 categories leaving india with very little benifit.

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,
can we make an assumption that EB2 ROW is not going to require any spillover other than FB visas which are already added to it?. The reason being there is no mention of potential cut off date.

what concerns me is the fact that even though 45,188 is the total allocated for EB2WW, the numbers that you have calculated might exceed 45K (Requiring upto 52K), in that case, can the EB1/EB4 spillover could mostly be consumed by EB2ROW and we can have a scenario of almost negligable spillover to India.
In other words if the EB2ROW demand remains very high , will the spillover from EB1/4 applied across all EB2 categories leaving india with very little benifit.

Specs numbers do go to 52000 but you are assuming a direct correlation between trackitt numbers and actual numbers. EB2ROW while possible cannot consume 52000 visas. The max they have done is in FY 2008 when they consumed around 45000. But if you look at the numbers that year they were off the charts for countries that historically dont have that consumption. Example russia consumed 2500 visas in 2008 has never crossed 1300 after that. Last year was low but if you look at individual countries like Russia or Great Britian they were not really that low compared to normal years like 2011 and 2010. Canada looked very low last year and could cause of the rebound effect consume more this year. So net net according to me EB2ROW will consume around 35000 max taking EB2 WW to about 40000 max. Also trackitt numbers may not map to actual high numbers - case in point FY 2009 - it has the highest of any year approvals on trackitt but actuall approvals did not even cross 33000.

[indiani]

Specs numbers do go to 52000 but you are assuming a direct correlation between trackitt numbers and actual numbers. EB2ROW while possible cannot consume 52000 visas.

52K is meant for EBWW which includes india, mexico, phillipines., EB2ROW itself might require 40K if the cumulative numbers calculated based on data we have (I understand very difficult to precisely compute as they are estimations)

The max they have done is in FY 2008 when they consumed around 45000. But if you look at the numbers that year they were off the charts for countries that historically dont have that consumption. Example russia consumed 2500 visas in 2008 has never crossed 1300 after that. Last year was low but if you look at individual countries like Russia or Great Britian they were not really that low compared to normal years like 2011 and 2010. Canada looked very low last year and could cause of the rebound effect consume more this year. So net net according to me EB2ROW will consume around 35000 max taking EB2 WW to about 40000 max. Also trackitt numbers may not map to actual high numbers - case in point FY 2009 - it has the highest of any year approvals on trackitt but actuall approvals did not even cross 33000.

EB2WW to max. at 40K will be good scenario leading to upto 14K+ spillover to EB2I., but when I looked at the rate of approvals in EB2WW as a whole, they perhaps might have consumed 32K by april which is 7 months!!

All the data I used is from spec chart, may be my interpretation might be flawed in someway and I do not want to sound pessimistic but rather quite anxious as without any mention of any future movements, I am growing cynical

[sbhagwat2000]

EB2WW to max. at 40K will be good scenario leading to upto 14K+ spillover to EB2I., but when I looked at the rate of approvals in EB2WW as a whole, they perhaps might have consumed 32K by april which is 7 months!!

All the data I used is from spec chart, may be my interpretation might be flawed in someway and I do not want to sound pessimistic but rather quite anxious as without any mention of any future movements, I am growing cynical


If thats really the case then in february it would have been 32k - 4000 arounf 28000. There was no FB SO in Feb and CO would have talked abt high demand. theres not a single time where hes officially mentioned that EB2 WW demand is too high. Keep the hope . there will be movement

[veni001]

Hello Guys,

This is my first post to this forum. This forum was introduced to me by my cousin and ever since then I've been following this forum but never had a chance to contribute. The information being shared on this forum is incredible I must say, especially from gurus like Spec/Q/Matt/Veni etc. Thanks a ton for bringing so much information to this community. I have two quick question guys although it might sound dumb.

1. Is the demand data listed in the monthly VB are applications waiting for visa no to be available? or is it the total no of applications with I-140 approved and waiting to file 485?

2. I've been keeping track of the EB-2I demand data since March 2013. The Demand then was 42,400 until 01/12 and now it is at 42,925. How can this increase when EB2-I dates are stagnated at 01 Sep 04?

flexan,
Welcome to the forum.
#1 The totals are the number of applicants pre-adjudicated and waiting for a VISA number.
#2 This could be due to several reasons, Porting, applications being processed and pre-adjudicatied...etc.

[indian1975]

flexan,
Welcome to the forum.
#1 The totals are the number of applicants pre-adjudicated and waiting for a VISA number.
#2 This could be due to several reasons, Porting, applications being processed and pre-adjudicatied...etc.


Sorry to ask you again here, Stil I am not getting the answer you gave here.
1# that means the count included I-140's who are not yet filed for 485?

[Spectator]

Sorry to ask you again here, Stil I am not getting the answer you gave here.
1# that means the count included I-140's who are not yet filed for 485?No, the number does not include any cases where the I-485 has not been filed.

By definition, an I-485 cannot be pre-adjudicated if it has never been submitted.

[suninphx]

EB-2 China how has priority date 14 July 2008 will get his GC in 3 months. EB-3 China how has priority 14 July 2008 will get his GC not earlier than 2014 summer. Is just seams like EB3C is ahead, in reality EB3C will retrogress soon.

That may very well happen or who knows few lucky ones EB3-C may even get GC this FY itself... I was just pointing to one more evidence how messed up this whole system is..

EB3-C retrogession is a given...every one knows that..

[Spectator]

Spec,
can we make an assumption that EB2 ROW is not going to require any spillover other than FB visas which are already added to it?. The reason being there is no mention of potential cut off date.No, I don't think that is an entirely safe assumption. EB2-WW might, in the worst case use a little bit of Fall Down from EB1, but there is no realistic chance of retrogression for EB2-WW. For that to happen, they would have to exceed their initial allocation plus most of the Fall Down from EB1.


what concerns me is the fact that even though 45,188 is the total allocated for EB2WW, the numbers that you have calculated might exceed 45K (Requiring upto 52K), in that case, can the EB1/EB4 spillover could mostly be consumed by EB2ROW and we can have a scenario of almost negligable spillover to India.
In other words if the EB2ROW demand remains very high , will the spillover from EB1/4 applied across all EB2 categories leaving india with very little benifit.I'm a little confused by what you mean. You may need to expand on what you are saying by quoting which number you are referring to and how you have extrapolated it. We may also have a different use of terminology.

45,188 is the initial total for ALL EB2. Ultimately, the number of visas EB2 receives will be 45.2k plus the Fall Down from EB1. By EB1 Fall Down, I mean all spare visas from EB1, EB4 and EB5.

With Fall Down from EB1, it should reach somewhere around 55-60k. If it doesn't, then we are going to have a problem!

The new initial allocation for EB2-WW is 38.9k. WW in this context refers to ROW/M/P i.e. the non-retrogressed Countries in EB2.

Perhaps you have prorated the current figures. That's not valid for ROW, since very high approvals have been seen (and were expected) in the first half of the year. They should settle down now to a lower monthly number.

[indiani]

Sorry that the second part of my post was confusing but You did answer my question that the approval rates will decrease and pro rating will not give the realistic picture

what amount of spillover at the minimum can we anticipate for EB2I this fiscal year with all the data available at this time?

[vizcard]

Sorry that the second part of my post was confusing but You did answer my question that the approval rates will decrease and pro rating will not give the realistic picture

what amount of spillover at the minimum can we anticipate for EB2I this fiscal year with all the data available at this time?

Min could be 0. I'm not being facetious here. There's not been any new info for a while. So if EB2WW uses all the spillover from EB1, then we are left with the initial allocation plus the FB excess.

That being said, I personally don't expect that to happen. I am in the camp that expects spillover of about 20k SOFAD incl FB excess.

[Spectator]

Can admins delete/archive everything except first and last few pages on this thread? Is there a way to get to the last page without navigating to the discussion and clicking on "last" button?civilengineer,

That's unlikely to happen.

Usually, the last post in the Calculations and Predictions sub-forum is from this thread, so clicking on "Go to last post" on the top right hand side of the main forum page (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forum.php) will take you to the last post of this thread.

95% of the time, getting to the last post requires only one click.

Hope that helps.

[luckycub]

civilengineer,

That's unlikely to happen.

Usually, the last post in the Calculations and Predictions sub-forum is from this thread, so clicking on "Go to last post" on the top right hand side of the main forum page (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forum.php) will take you to the last post of this thread.

95% of the time, getting to the last post requires only one click.

Hope that helps.

Hi

There is another way that guarantees you to the last page - you can simply change the page number of the URL to a bigger one such as 200 or even 1000, then save it to your favorites, when you want to browse the link, just click the link you saved - it will bring you to the very last page everytime..... ex:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013/page500

Hope this helps. Thanks.

[sbhagwat2000]

Min could be 0. I'm not being facetious here. There's not been any new info for a while. So if EB2WW uses all the spillover from EB1, then we are left with the initial allocation plus the FB excess.

That being said, I personally don't expect that to happen. I am in the camp that expects spillover of about 20k SOFAD incl FB excess.

You can have no SO. Lets say EB1 + eb4 + eb 5 = 5000 + 2000 = 7000. Then EB2 will have 45000 + 7000 = 52000(I wont go for the 55k-60k figure as that assumes EB1 and 4 will use less than their yearly allocation). For no SO scenario - EB2 WW has to use around 46000 numbers. Has this happened before? Yes once in 2008 - EB2 WW used 48000 visas. Can it happen again - theres very a small chance. We need to see the origin of the demand that is labor applications for EB2 WW. Have their numbers increased , decreased or stayed the same. Last year EB2 WW got 25000 which was really low on account of retrogression. So how much pent up demand is there we dont know. Hopefully WW will fold before 40000.

[Spectator]

Sorry that the second part of my post was confusing but You did answer my question that the approval rates will decrease and pro rating will not give the realistic picture

what amount of spillover at the minimum can we anticipate for EB2I this fiscal year with all the data available at this time?indiani,

Glad that answered your question.

As for your new question - how long is a piece of string?

Since EB1 itself will provide the most spillover to EB2, I think the performance of that Category is the key.

To date, there hasn't been good, reliable information on how EB1 is doing. I have some doubts about the EB1 Trackitt data at face value because it appears very skewed towards Indian approvals and is lacking approvals for ROW. There has been no information provided outside of Trackitt. Last year, EB1 saw an increase in approvals in the latter part of the year.

The % of Indian EB1 approvals of the whole of EB1 increased by a third in FY2012 over FY2011 to nearly a quarter of the total. Is that a continuing trend or not?

Depending on all the different assumptions, I see the current realistic range of total visas available to EB2-I as between 12-18k. That's a wide range, but it reflects the uncertainty in my view.

How far that can move the dates depends on the level of porting and how many of those cases are approved this FY.

As vizcard said, there is a "nuclear option" where EB2-I would receive very little spillover. Like vizcard, I don't believe that scenario is very likely at all.

Any thoughts are subject to quite rapid change as new information becomes available, so just consider it the "Thought For Today".

As a PS, I am increasingly wondering whether EB5 may be a dark horse for some extra spillover. The EB5 community are very frustrated with USCIS over the shifting adjudication standards for I-526.

In February, the pending backlog of I-526 had reached over 6k, which translates to nearly 15k EB5 approvals. The average monthly completions are no higher than in FY2012. If USCIS do not sort this out, EB5 approvals may be lower than expected.

[qesehmk]

civilengineer - welcome to forum! Probably you havent noticed the navigation buttons at the top as well as bottom of every threadpage. They allow you to go to the last or first page in one click. Also when on forum home page - you can click on the >> buttons to go to last page. Hope that answers your question.

Can admins delete/archive everything except first and last few pages on this thread? Is there a way to get to the last page without navigating to the discussion and clicking on "last" button?

[sbhagwat2000]

I was thinking the same about EB5. I dont have the data like you but have been reading about slower approval times, regional center fraud investigation and move of processing center from CAlifornia to Washington. All this I was thinking could impact approvals. How do you know though that monthly approvals are same as last year even though backlog has increased. Also the danger could be that USCIS could ramp up approvals.

[Spectator]

I was thinking the same about EB5. I dont have the data like you but have been reading about slower approval times, regional center fraud investigation and move of processing center from CAlifornia to Washington. All this I was thinking could impact approvals. How do you know though that monthly approvals are same as last year even though backlog has increased. Also the danger could be that USCIS could ramp up approvals.I think the biggest problem has been changes to the Tenant Occupancy Methodology.

Notice I said Completions, not Approvals. In FY2012, the average I-526 monthly Completions were 386. For FY2013 October-February the average is 358. Average I-526 Approvals have historically been about 80% of Completions.

All the data is available in the USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/).

Usually USCIS have also published the All Form Types Performance Data (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) on a quarterly basis which had the Approval figures, but they have not done so this FY. The last one available covers FY2012.

[vizcard]

Can admins delete/archive everything except first and last few pages on this thread? Is there a way to get to the last page without navigating to the discussion and clicking on "last" button?


civilengineer,

That's unlikely to happen.

Usually, the last post in the Calculations and Predictions sub-forum is from this thread, so clicking on "Go to last post" on the top right hand side of the main forum page (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forum.php) will take you to the last post of this thread.

95% of the time, getting to the last post requires only one click.

Hope that helps.

Civilengineer
Here's what I do. I have bookmarked the page and then went in to the properties and change the page number at the end to a very high number. Example - when you bookmark this page 61, the link will look like this -
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013/page61
Just change the 61 at the end to 5000.

Next time you click the bookmark, it'll take you to the last page in the thread.

[sbhagwat2000]

I think the biggest problem has been changes to the Tenant Occupancy Methodology.

Notice I said Completions, not Approvals. In FY2012, the average I-526 monthly Completions were 386. For FY2013 October-February the average is 358. Average I-526 Approvals have historically been about 80% of Completions.

All the data is available in the USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/).

Usually USCIS have also published the All Form Types Performance Data (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) on a quarterly basis which had the Approval figures, but they have not done so this FY. The last one available covers FY2012.

Makes sense. Another thing I am thinking of is CO may move dates for EB2 I in sept directly. The reason being this - All the apps pre 2007 are preadjudicated and new apps are going to be interfiling which are preadjudicated rather quickly. May be they dont want to give time for interfiling also. A late single move may be the simplest for them with a fixed target instead of a moving one.

[indiani]

Makes sense. Another thing I am thinking of is CO may move dates for EB2 I in sept directly. The reason being this - All the apps pre 2007 are preadjudicated and new apps are going to be interfiling which are preadjudicated rather quickly. May be they dont want to give time for interfiling also. A late single move may be the simplest for them with a fixed target instead of a moving one.

I believe that he will start making some moves in july/august, exactly how much obviously Guru's like spec just mentioned and appears almost impossible to make informed prediction as the information itself is not available precisely as I just dont understand why CO/USCIS/DOS just not provide approvals in all categories on monthly basis. (they do on yearly basis now)
Even lets say there is more than 10K spillover and they just don't use them, they will send it to FB for next fiscal year. There will be no accountability. My life has turned upside down with last year's erratic movements and unprecdictability this year.(sorry for my rant about personal tragedy)
being nov 2007 EB2I, I dont want to make job change with AC21 and carry risk of RFE, so will wait till august 10 2013(for the last bulletin) and then perhaps if no GC by then I will change job.

[geeaarpee]

Min could be 0. I'm not being facetious here. There's not been any new info for a while. So if EB2WW uses all the spillover from EB1, then we are left with the initial allocation plus the FB excess.

That being said, I personally don't expect that to happen. I am in the camp that expects spillover of about 20k SOFAD incl FB excess.

Viz - If there is 0 EB spillover and just with the FB excess where do you think the dates would be by Sep for EB2I?

[Spectator]

Makes sense. Another thing I am thinking of is CO may move dates for EB2 I in sept directly. The reason being this - All the apps pre 2007 are preadjudicated and new apps are going to be interfiling which are preadjudicated rather quickly. May be they dont want to give time for interfiling also. A late single move may be the simplest for them with a fixed target instead of a moving one.sbhagwat,

From my POV, I certainly hope not. That would be a recipe for random approvals of all sorts of PD. People with 2007 PD who missed out last year would be just as likely to do so again. CO would also be absolutely blind to how many cases a given movement might produce, since USCIS have not supplied any information about porting numbers in the pipeline to DOS according to previous statements.

I would move in 3 steps (as I have mentioned previously) :

July VB - Cut Off Date movement to about 01JAN07 to clear out most of the porting cases. Even the worst case scenario should allow that much movement.

August VB - A safe-ish date that represents the minimum number of cases that I would be 100% sure there will be enough visas for, even if other Categories saw a late increase. Perhaps a Cut Off Date of late 2007 to 01JAN08.

September VB - A Cut Off Date sufficient to balance the final number of visas I thought would be available. Final determination would depend on what I was seeing in other Categories up to early August when I had to set the date.

I think that strategy balances approving cases in roughly PD order, obtaining some idea of unknown demand, leaving the final movement to as late as possible and not overburdening USCIS capacity to approve cases in a single month (bearing in mind that USCIS are also likely to have large numbers of EB3 cases to adjudicate in August/September).

There are various variations around that theme, but I would be staggered and rather worried if the Cut Off Dates for EB2-I do not move in July.

[Kanmani]

Why the China born EB-3 has surpassed EB-2 visa availability for the first time since October 1993?

Article .... http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/News/News2013-05-11.html

[Spectator]

Why the China born EB-3 has surpassed EB-2 visa availability for the first time since October 1993?

Article .... http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/News/News2013-05-11.htmlKanmani,

Nice to see another article from that source.

It may be an oddity, but it makes little difference to all but a very few Chinese applicants.

The vast majority of those in EB2 with a PD up to May 2010 were able to file an I-485 last year. I say an I-485 because EB2 has so little CP.

By the time they could switch to EB3, the dates will have retrogressed to a date earlier than the EB2 one.

IMO it is just an interesting statistical quirk, essentially caused by the way USCIS process cases, which occasionally necessitates large forward movements in the Cut Off Dates when the previous Demand runs out.

I think you already know that, so I'll just say thanks for bringing the article to everybody's attention.

[Kanmani]

Spec,

Just walked through the memory lane, this article took me back to the 2007 speculation about Eb3I waiting time would be lesser in the (then) future than that of Eb2I. Do you think it is likely after 5 years from now ?

Thanks in Adv.

[indiani]

Kanmani,

Nice to see another article from that source.

It may be an oddity, but it makes little difference to all but a very few Chinese applicants.

The vast majority of those in EB2 with a PD up to May 2010 were able to file an I-485 last year. I say an I-485 because EB2 has so little CP.

By the time they could switch to EB3, the dates will have retrogressed to a date earlier than the EB2 one.

IMO it is just an interesting statistical quirk, essentially caused by the way USCIS process cases, which occasionally necessitates large forward movements in the Cut Off Dates when the previous Demand runs out.

I think you already know that, so I'll just say thanks for bringing the article to everybody's attention.


Spec,
Is there anyway we can obtain the approvals in all the EB categories so far for this fiscal year. I believe under FOIA they should provide when asked but not quite sure. It is quite frustrating to have to go through trackitt data and spending so much time and energy and you have spent more time than anyone else I know including all immigration attorneys , some of whom make millions doing this business.

I do not believe any immigration attorney is going to do that as they do not have much incentive in obtaing the GC approval data for this current fiscal year, If we have DD and GC approvals , we will have good idea about spillovers, b'cos without the GC approval data, inventory data alone will provide very little additinal value for predictions

[Spectator]

Spec,

Just walked through the memory lane, this article took me back to the 2007 speculation about Eb3I waiting time would be lesser in the (then) future than that of Eb2I. Do you think it is likely after 5 years from now ?

Thanks in Adv.Kanmani,

Firstly, it's nice to see some posts from you. It seems like a long time.

Seeing Alan Lee's name was a memory jogger for me as well. He provided some really good info in his set of 3 articles.

I hope that is a future we won't have to contemplate. If we are, no legislation to improve the system will have been passed. :(

EB3-I is in very bad shape until EB3-ROW can become Current. Until then, under current interpretations, they can't receive any spillover visas. It's quite sad that there is semi-rejoicing that EB3-I has started to move 2 weeks a month rather than 1 week. That still means actual retrogression is getting worse. I am hoping that EB3-ROW demand will drop off fairly sharply after 2008, since these days, ROW seem as unwilling to file under EB3 as those from India do. If the date move far enough, that is something I am hoping to see (one way or the other), once the full demand is apparent.

EB2-I will continue to benefit from any spillover available via EB1 and from EB2-WW. Despite the huge numbers waiting in EB2-I, only in years when there is little spillover will EB2-I not move forward at some point during the year. The present "real" gap of 5 years between EB2-I and EB3-I will take a long time to close. EB3-I are not going to exhaust visas prior to July 2007 anytime soon.

What a depressing post.

[sandyn16]

Is there any limit on how many cases can be approved per month? Will that play a role on when they decide to move the dates between July and Sept to avoid wastage?

[vizcard]

Viz - If there is 0 EB spillover and just with the FB excess where do you think the dates would be by Sep for EB2I?

My guesstimate would be Dec 2007 - March 2008 depending on porting.

[vizcard]

Is there any limit on how many cases can be approved per month? Will that play a role on when they decide to move the dates between July and Sept to avoid wastage?

There's a quarterly limit not a monthly one.

[qesehmk]

Spec - it seems complicated from forecasting perspective but really it isn't that complicated simply because NVC is equivalent to USCIS except that consulates demand visa and NVC does the grunt work.

IMHO Precisely because of large EB3 CP backlog - there is no fear of wastage of visa in EB3 and which is why moving dates farther than really necessary is not required.

However -- regardless of that theoretical debate - I guess what you are saying is that this is a temporary forward move which most likely is going to see a retrogression. And in that case that would make sense. My fear is that porting could be much higher (but I don't have a proof) and in that case EB3 ROW move could be a sustainable one which could be a very bad news for EB2I.

We will know precisely what this by approximately Aug 10th which is when last bulletin of this USCIS fiscal will be published.

Q,

I have mentioned in previous posts that EB3 Cut Off Date movement is far more complicated than EB2-IC last year due to the % of Consular Processed cases. Since they can be made documentarily qualified and approved far faster than a new AOS case, it actually makes more sense to move dates very quickly, then retrogress them to control the number of late PD CP cases that can be approved. If CO wishes to consider this, he doesn't have more than a further one month (at most) to continue moving the dates forward. In contrast EB2 has virtually no CP cases, so it was not a consideration last year.

I see 28.5k EB3 CP cases for EB3-ROW/C/M (excluding EW) at NVC in November 2012. They cover a PD range of about 6 years (on average about 5k per PD Year).

If USCIS process new AOS cases too slowly, CO has the ability to approve later CP cases to avoid wastage of the EB3-ROW/C/M allocation.


Over the period FY2011 to date EB2-ROW has shown the following average (range) [this year to date] for the following :

Porting - 7.9% (6.15% to 10.85%) [6.15%]
Indian Nationality/ROW Chargeability - 10.5% (8.9% to 13.5%) [8.9%]
NIW - 14.4% (10.6% to 18.1%) [18.1%]

As with EB2-IC last year, just because a given Cut Off Date movement bring in a certain number of new applications, that is not the same as all those applications being approved. In fact, as with EB2-IC, the majority of the new EB3 applications will not be approved this FY - they are merely a future inventory that will be depleted over several years. How long depends on how far CO ultimately decides to move the Cut Off Dates.

[Spectator]

Spec - it seems complicated from forecasting perspective but really it isn't that complicated simply because NVC is equivalent to USCIS except that consulates demand visa and NVC does the grunt work.

IMHO Precisely because of large EB3 CP backlog - there is no fear of wastage of visa in EB3 and which is why moving dates farther than really necessary is not required.

However -- regardless of that theoretical debate - I guess what you are saying is that this is a temporary forward move which most likely is going to see a retrogression. And in that case that would make sense. My fear is that porting could be much higher (but I don't have a proof) and in that case EB3 ROW move could be a sustainable one which could be a very bad news for EB2I.

We will know precisely what this by approximately Aug 10th which is when last bulletin of this USCIS fiscal will be published.Q,

Thanks for your comments. I agree with most of your post. Different views are expected and healthy. After all, everybody is working in a vacuum and there is no precedent for EB3 moving beyond July 2007.

To clarify, my comment about complexity was solely about about the timings issue brought about by the different speed with which AOS and CP cases can be adjudicated by USCIS and DOS.

Even then, it is only an issue if CO wishes to control the number of late PD CP cases that are approved i.e. those beyond the date that EB3 would have to retrogress back to.

As for the level of porting, like EB2, it is difficult to come by information. I have tried my best to analyze the data that exists, but there are limitations to that data. If the EB2-ROW Trackitt porting cases are more closely aligned to the EB3-ROW ratio (rather than the overall EB2-ROW ratio I have used), the numbers could be up to twice as large. On the other hand, it is clear from examination of some of the cases with an old PD that they are just long delayed straight EB2 cases.

By having to move the EB3 dates forward relatively late in the FY, CO has had to trust that USCIS will process the new AOS applications in a manner consistent with how they have processed others recently. Each year of PD forward movement should correspond to 4-5k CP cases - that is his buffer if USCIS don't process the AOS cases in a timely fashion.

I don't think the movement to 01SEP08 is a sustainable one given how many visas may be left for the FY. I have not yet decided what date is a sustainable one. At the moment I am thinking late 2007 to possibly somewhere in Q1 2008. That is based on recent FY movement for a given number of approvals.

As for a large forward movement, I think that is more to build an Inventory so that there is better visibility of the demand, much in the same way as it happened for EB2IC. In the same way, there was no need to move those dates to 01MAY10 purely for FY visa consumption reasons.

[qesehmk]

Spec - sure - I hope so and we will know by Aug 10th latest. Perhaps even as early as next month if EB2I jumps 2-3 years forward. Then clearly EB3ROW move is not sustainable.


Q,

As for a large forward movement, I think that is more to build an Inventory so that there is better visibility of the demand, much in the same way as it happened for EB2IC.

[Spectator]

Spec - sure - I hope so and we will know by Aug 10th latest. Perhaps even as early as next month if EB2I jumps 2-3 years forward. Then clearly EB3ROW move is not sustainable.Q,

I agree.

The wait is excruciating.

I think this is by far the most difficult year (by a considerable margin) we have ever had for predicting what is going to happen. If I crash and burn this year, it won't be a total surprise to me.

It's hard to convey in posts quite how big the uncertainty is.

[qesehmk]

You will do just fine Spec! Given the amount of information available ... one could'nt have done better. Think about it - we are debating with decent accuracy what could be the reasons if EB2I doesn't receive sufficient SOFAD! So we not only are talking about outcome but also possible reasons! That is quite good compared to 2009-10s when we didnt have a clue how much total backlog was!
Q,

I agree.

The wait is excruciating.

I think this is by far the most difficult year (by a considerable margin) we have ever had for predicting what is going to happen. If I crash and burn this year, it won't be a total surprise to me.

It's hard to convey in posts quite how big the uncertainty is.

[geeaarpee]

General Prediction -

I will continue to update this page once a month.

Q - you said you will be updating the first page once a month and hasn't been for close to 3 months. Do you think anything worthy that happened and discussed in the past 3 months to be updated in Page 1?

This will help us recollect any useful conversations we might have missed in these days and help us understand in just one post in one place rather than going through all the 60+ pages of discussions.

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Q - you said you will be updating the first page once a month and hasn't been for close to 3 months. Do you think anything worthy that happened and discussed in the past 3 months to be updated in Page 1?

This will help us recollect any useful conversations we might have missed in these days and help us understand in just one post in one place rather than going through all the 60+ pages of discussions.

Thanks!

geeaarpee -sorry and now i have updated first page. I think I am going to have to backtrack by about 2 months and correct my forecast to compensate for more than expected demand in EB2ROW as well. That explains why EB3ROW is also moving fast. (I think the unexpected demand is porting from EB3ROW to EB2ROW).

[geeaarpee]

I don't think there is particularly proven low demand from EB3-WW at this stage. There may be in future years beyond 2008.

The movement is solely necessitated by running out of cases submitted when the EB3-WW Cut Off Date was last Current, just as it was for EB2-I.

One of the reasons the Cut Off Dates need to move substantially is just so CO can gauge what AOS demand beyond July 2008 looks like in EB3 for China, Mexico and ROW.

Spec, you replied to my post last month when the May VB was released.

Do you still think the EB3 movement is just for demand purposes and not because of porting. From the above post, even Q seems to think that porting is huge WW.

Is porting that bad that my 2005 PD will not be current next month (July VB)?

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec, you replied to my post last month when the May VB was released.

Do you still think the EB3 movement is just for demand purposes and not because of porting. From the above post, even Q seems to think that porting is huge WW.

Is porting that bad that my 2005 PD will not be current next month (July VB)?

spec,

A few questions concerns on which u may have insight

1. EB2WW scored 48K in FY 2008. Do you see that repeated with the Perm Data that we have. The similarities between the 2 years the years before EB2WW retrogressed

2. About the EB5 discussion- 358 /month of completions = about 4000 approvals for the year. The extra numbers to abt 7000 0r 9000 is approvals of earlier years completions? If yes then I guess EB5 will use atleast 9000 as cumulatively this and last year are high

Thanks for all you do

[Spectator]

Answers inline (or rather, thoughts)

spec,

A few questions concerns on which u may have insight

1. EB2WW scored 48K in FY 2008. Do you see that repeated with the Perm Data that we have. The similarities between the 2 years the years before EB2WW retrogressed

No, I don't think the numbers will reach that level.

2. About the EB5 discussion- 358 /month of completions = about 4000 approvals for the year. The extra numbers to abt 7000 0r 9000 is approvals of earlier years completions? If yes then I guess EB5 will use at least 9000 as cumulatively this and last year are high

Good observation. For most cases, since most EB5 Consular Process, the lag time from an I-526 approval (the EB5 equivalent of the I-140) to consuming a visa is however long it takes for USCIS to send the documents to NVC and then the CP processing time. That might be a few months, but it probably isn't as long as a year IMO.

I get a slightly lower number of I-526 approvals than 4,000 because not all Completions are necessarily approvals. At an 80% approval rate, there would be roughly 286 approvals a month (3,436 for the year). At 2.9 visas used per I-526 approval, usage would still be higher than last year at about 10k. So maybe it is something of a red herring to hope for low EB5 approvals. EB5 usage numbers have been updated fairly often in the past. Someone doesn't seem so keen to do that this year - probably USCIS, since they very keen to be engaged by the stakeholders and most updates came from those quarterly meetings.

But you are correct that the benefit might be less than a straight comparison of completion numbers might suggest.

Thanks for all you do

[MATT2012]

Summary Prediction - EB2IC backlog will be cleared between May-Jul 2008 by Sep 2013.
4. EB1 - Has strong demand and will yield about 1K to EB1.

Thus EB2IC should expect to receive overall 9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +1K (EB1) +6K (Quota) = 19K visas.

That should be sufficient to clear EB2IC backlog through May-Jul 2008 if you consider porting at 3K.

Hi Q,
Was comparing the multiple predictions we have, and was looking for reasons for each number, Got a little curious about the 1K SO from EB1. Are you expecting the EB1 demand to be very similar to last fiscal?
Thanks,
Matt

[indiani]

as CO didnt mention about any cut off date even before FB spillover is applied, EB1 should give atleast 1K unless the demand suddenly increases in the last few months like last year, in that case the spillover from EB1 could be zero and they might even consuume 1-2K of FB spillover.

EB2ROW I believe is the more worrisome factor as they might consume considerble spillover from FB perhaps 4-6K, in that case EB2I might get perhaps as low as 7K spillover but its very overcautious estimate.

The reason I think CO didnt mention about any movement even for July and small chance he might make no movement in July as he didnt want all the new porters to be getting GC as there is already large pending inventory, so when he makes move in august at the most 20-30% of new porters might be able to get GC.

I think with 99% certainity I could say it could move to aug 2007, perhaps 50% to dec 2007

[sandyn16]

Do we think that there are high chances dates wont move in July bulletin?

I have a question for my case? I have Aug 2003 EB3 and working on EAD. My wife got her EB3 first in July 2006 and then EB2 perm and 140 approved last year. So when dates get current, going to have her case linked to mine.

So am not sure whether my case will fall in the new porter type category which will need more than 3 months or do I stand a chance of getting GC if dates get current in July or August?

[indiani]

Do we think that there are high chances dates wont move in July bulletin?

I have a question for my case? I have Aug 2003 EB3 and working on EAD. My wife got her EB3 first in July 2006 and then EB2 perm and 140 approved last year. So when dates get current, going to have her case linked to mine.

So am not sure whether my case will fall in the new porter type category which will need more than 3 months or do I stand a chance of getting GC if dates get current in July or August?

It depends, if they send RFE, NO.
as you finished finger printing, after you apply even in august you might get GC

"small chance he might make no movement in July" that means there is high chance that dates will move.

[Spectator]

Do we think that there are high chances dates wont move in July bulletin?

I have a question for my case? I have Aug 2003 EB3 and working on EAD. My wife got her EB3 first in July 2006 and then EB2 perm and 140 approved last year. So when dates get current, going to have her case linked to mine.

So am not sure whether my case will fall in the new porter type category which will need more than 3 months or do I stand a chance of getting GC if dates get current in July or August?sandyn16,

I am of the opinion that the VB will move in the July VB.

The description of your situation is slightly confusing.

In one sentence its sounds as if your wife has the EB2 I-140 approval, but if her case is going to be linked to yours then you must have the EB2 I-140 approval. It's also not clear whether your wife already has an existing I-485.

IMO, a porting case is only going to take more than 3 months to approve if the person is filing an I-485 for the first time and it has to go through the whole procedure from scratch. That would mainly apply when the original EB3 case had a post July 2007 PD and the I-485 could not be filed when the dates were current under EB2 last year.

If an I-485 has already been submitted for some time, it is likely to be as pre-adjudicated as one submitted under EB2 last year. The process of converting the basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2 should take no time at all. as long as a written request to do so has been received.

It is then luck of the draw as to when the case is pulled, gets in front of an IO and whether an RFE is issued, as it will be for all EB2 cases that become Current.

[geeaarpee]

Do we think that there are high chances dates wont move in July bulletin?

I have a question for my case? I have Aug 2003 EB3 and working on EAD. My wife got her EB3 first in July 2006 and then EB2 perm and 140 approved last year. So when dates get current, going to have her case linked to mine.

So am not sure whether my case will fall in the new porter type category which will need more than 3 months or do I stand a chance of getting GC if dates get current in July or August?

I'm not a Guru and you can see in the previous posts I have been asking some basic questions to Spec and others but based on my experience just trying to answer what I feel...

I think by "So when dates get current, going to have her case linked to mine.", you meant you are planning to file yourself as dependent on your wife's EB2 case (just make sure the old Jul'06 PD is retained in her new EB2 I-140). You are assuming that July'06 EB2I will be faster than Aug'03 EB3I - it is understandable but with the current state it could be other way too...

I assume:

1) Since you are on EAD, you have filed for I-485 already and there is very high possibility your EB3 case will be current atleast by fiscal '14. Assuming there are no RFE in your 485 it would be a straight forward approval right away in that case. This would be my first preference.

2) What is not clear from your question is whether your wife has already filed for I-485 or not - if she has already filed then her case will also be smooth and you can file as a dependent when her EB2 date is current, based on other gurus prediction it should be current by Sep'13. But my suggestion would be wait for her 485 to approve and then file a "Following to Join", this way you would avoid any issues with RFEs in your wife's 485 case.

Hope it is helpful.

Also read this, it has some good info too...

http://forums.immigration.com/showthread.php?324715-EB3-485-pending-but-spouse-140-became-current

[qesehmk]

Matt

That's quite conservative. Yes I think it will be come in at last years level or even higher - considering economy is actually better this year. However trackitt data is pointing to 20% less demand ... that's 32K. So 44-32=12K SOFAD could be seen. To me that is too good to be true in this economy.

Plus EB1 is treachorous because the cycle times are so small. And then there are headwinds in EB3ROW porting .... so I will let these headwinds take away any upside in EB1. Or said other way ..... you can say that yes indeed EB1 can give SOFAD to EB2 but the question is will it really go to EB2I? Or will it be consumed in EB2ROW. So seen from EB2I angle - they may land up with only 1K from EB1 (mind you before I consider 9K extra FB visas).


Hi Q,
Was comparing the multiple predictions we have, and was looking for reasons for each number, Got a little curious about the 1K SO from EB1. Are you expecting the EB1 demand to be very similar to last fiscal?
Thanks,
Matt

[sandyn16]

Thanks for the information...

To give more information on my case

My wife is a dependent in my 485 which is eb3 aug 2003

Now she got eb2 perm and 140 approved last year with her eb3 date of July 2006. She did not file for 485 with her eb3 case and with her eb2 case, her lawyer said when dates are current they would link it to mine so make her primary and me dependent is what I guess.

We got finger printing completed in 2007

[geeaarpee]

Thanks for the information...

To give more information on my case

My wife is a dependent in my 485 which is eb3 aug 2003

Now she got eb2 perm and 140 approved last year with her eb3 date of July 2006. She did not file for 485 with her eb3 case and with her eb2 case, her lawyer said when dates are current they would link it to mine so make her primary and me dependent is what I guess.

We got finger printing completed in 2007

Just do what your attorney said which seems to be right - i think they are planning to interfile but there are associated risks too. Filing a derivative 485 also carries risk. Check with your attorney, if "Following to Join" is possible and I think that would be the safest bet.

[Spectator]

Matt

That's quite conservative. Yes I think it will be come in at last years level or even higher - considering economy is actually better this year. However trackitt data is pointing to 20% less demand ... that's 32K. So 44-32=12K SOFAD could be seen. To me that is too good to be true in this economy.

Plus EB1 is treachorous because the cycle times are so small. And then there are headwinds in EB3ROW porting .... so I will let these headwinds take away any upside in EB1. Or said other way ..... you can say that yes indeed EB1 can give SOFAD to EB2 but the question is will it really go to EB2I? Or will it be consumed in EB2ROW. So seen from EB2I angle - they may land up with only 1K from EB1 (mind you before I consider 9K extra FB visas).Q,

You've hit the nail on the head!

EB1 usage is my greatest uncertainty and concern at present.

As you say, looking at total EB1 Trackitt approvals, it would suggest 32k from usage to date. I too think that is a little on the low side.

As an alternative, since EB1-I represent over 80% of Trackitt approvals to date, I have also been using that as a baseline.

Last year, actual EB1-I approvals (from DOS figures) represented 24% of total EB1 approvals. Mind you, that was a huge increase from the 18% in FY2011 and 16% in FY2010 and FY2009.

Using Trackitt EB1 India as a more representative baseline and the 24% ratio, projected approvals have been in the 36-37k range.

Summing up, I share your concern about EB1 usage, especially as this time last year saw the beginning of a surge in EB1 approvals and the fact that EB1 approvals do seem to come in waves rather than as a steady stream.

[Spectator]

Thanks for the information...

To give more information on my case

My wife is a dependent in my 485 which is eb3 aug 2003

Now she got eb2 perm and 140 approved last year with her eb3 date of July 2006. She did not file for 485 with her eb3 case and with her eb2 case, her lawyer said when dates are current they would link it to mine so make her primary and me dependent is what I guess.

We got finger printing completed in 2007sandyn16,

Thanks for the additional information.

As I understand it, your EB3 I-485 will be linked to your wife's EB2 case when her 2006 PD becomes Current under EB2 and her I-485 can be converted to an EB2 basis.

Her I-485 will switch from being the Dependent on your EB3 case to the Primary on her EB2 case and your I-485 will switch from the Primary on your EB3 case to the Dependent on her EB2 case.

I don't think that should cause any problems, or create any unnecessary delay.

It is absolutely vital that a written request to change the basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2 is received by USCIS. Without it, they cannot proceed with the conversion (according to the USCIS AFM) and will raise an RFE for it if they adjudicate the case.

Please correct me if I have misinterpreted your reply.

Good luck.

[indiani]

The next bulletin will give almost complete idea of the entire fiscal year movement as

we will see movement of some sort (small chance of no movement)
and
CO tends to give his analysis as to the future movements

[MATT2012]

Q,

You've hit the nail on the head!

EB1 usage is my greatest uncertainty and concern at present.

As you say, looking at total EB1 Trackitt approvals, it would suggest 32k from usage to date. I too think that is a little on the low side.

As an alternative, since EB1-I represent over 80% of Trackitt approvals to date, I have also been using that as a baseline.

Last year, actual EB1-I approvals (from DOS figures) represented 24% of total EB1 approvals. Mind you, that was a huge increase from the 18% in FY2011 and 16% in FY2010 and FY2009.

Using Trackitt EB1 India as a more representative baseline and the 24% ratio, projected approvals have been in the 36-37k range.

Summing up, I share your concern about EB1 usage, especially as this time last year saw the beginning of a surge in EB1 approvals and the fact that EB1 approvals do seem to come in waves rather than as a steady stream.
Thanks Q & Spec,

Many of us share similar concerns about EB1 this year.As we dont have clues from demand data, I turned into Inventory data for any possible clues.

FY 2012 started with 14K and peaked at 16K and ended with 14K. The acceleration of approvals we observed towards end of the last fiscal caused roughly 2K reduction in inventory. Most of the countries have similar start and end inventory for the last fiscal. India had a slightly lower pending inventory to end the last fiscal.

FY 2013: As per Jan 2013 inventory ,EB1 have a pending 13K number a drop of 1K from begin of the fiscal. That basically means that there were more approvals than new additions during the first quarter. Now if we compare EB1 I, the pending inventory made a drop of 10% during the first quarter. Trackitt had more number of EB1 I approvals during first quarter when compared to first quarter of last fiscal. So the reduction in EB1-I inventory makes sense. The EB1-I approvals of second quarter in trackitt is cumulatively 10% less at the end of the second quarter. it is generally comparable with the 10% EB1-I inventory drop.

Regarding the percentage weightage of India, it is fairly consistent with last year, as per pending inventory 21% which is a 1% drop from last fiscal. EB1-I had an average 22% weightage last fiscal as per inventory, which is very close to 24% official figure from State Dept, may be CP cases weightage adds another 2%( just an assumption).

My thought is, as we had inventory reduction in the first quarter, we may not see the spikes in last quarter approval. My gut from inventory numbers is there will be an overall 5-7% reduction in approvals this fiscal when compared to last fiscal, that is very close to the 36-37K Spec is projecting.
Though I compared inventory numbers to make the assumption of overall approval reduction, the actual key is how many visas were issued in the first quarter.As EB1 consumption holds the key for all SO's this fiscal, any upside swing in consumption can adversely impact our calculations. At this point there is no bigger concern than EB1. I am hoping that the upcoming inventory report will also show some more reductions in overall EB1 numbers. On the otherhand if the inventory increases, EB1 consumption may be heading to last year equivalent or more.

[Spectator]

Matt,

Thanks for your comments on EB1.

I found both Q and your comments very interesting and it is reassuring to know that other people have similar concerns.

The old timers will remember that it took me almost the whole year to finally acknowledge that low Trackitt EB1 approvals in FY2011 actually reflected the reality due to Kazarian.

Because of that experience, there is certainly a bit of "once bitten, twice shy" in ignoring them completely on my part, even if my gut instinct is that they are showing a lower figure than is likely.

If EB1 were to use 36.5k, then Fall Down would be

EB1 ---- 8.7
EB4 ---- 3.2
EB5 ---- 1.2

Total - 13.1

if EB4 had 8k and EB5 had 10k approvals.

Of that, EB2-C would be entitled to 7% (0.9k) leaving a potential 12.2k Fall Down for EB2-I.

With the initial 3.2k EB2-I allocation that would leave a maximum of 15.4k total approvals available to EB2-I.

Of that, EB2-WW has the potential to use some of those.

The level of porting cases that are approved then determines how far the Cut Off Dates can advance.

[sbhagwat2000]

Matt,

Thanks for your comments on EB1.

I found both Q and your comments very interesting and it is reassuring to know that other people have similar concerns.

The old timers will remember that it took me almost the whole year to finally acknowledge that low Trackitt EB1 approvals in FY2011 actually reflected the reality due to Kazarian.

Because of that experience, there is certainly a bit of "once bitten, twice shy" in ignoring them completely on my part, even if my gut instinct is that they are showing a lower figure than is likely.

If EB1 were to use 36.5k, then Fall Down would be

EB1 ---- 8.7
EB4 ---- 3.2
EB5 ---- 1.2

Total - 13.1

if EB4 had 8k and EB5 had 10k approvals.

Of that, EB2-C would be entitled to 7% (0.9k) leaving a potential 12.2k Fall Down for EB2-I.

With the initial 3.2k EB2-I allocation that would leave a maximum of 15.4k total approvals available to EB2-I.

Of that, EB2-WW has the potential to use some of those.

The level of porting cases that are approved then determines how far the Cut Off Dates can advance.

One note of caution with relying on trackitt. CO said in Feb that India and China have used their qouta for EB1 for the year. How does that compare with last year does anyone know? If EB 1 IC have used their qouta then approvals would be higher right?

[Spectator]

One note of caution with relying on trackitt. CO said in Feb that India and China have used their qouta for EB1 for the year. How does that compare with last year does anyone know? If EB 1 IC have used their qouta then approvals would be higher right?The Trackitt numbers also suggest that EB1-I exceeded their allocation towards the end of January and was a fairly good agreement with CO's announcement.

Last year, when the allocation was a bit lower, that appeared to happen at the very end of December according to Trackitt data.

[geeaarpee]

Spec, One quick question - May I know in which category you got your GC - EB1, 2 or 3?

[CleanSock]

June VB out!

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5953.html

No change in EB2I.

[natvyas]

Last year the I-485 pending inventory came out around 1st week of June and they year prior it was released around 26th May.

I'm assuming the pending inventory will shed more light on EB1 and Eb2 WW consumption.

Regards
Nat

[Pedro Gonzales]

Spec, One quick question - May I know in which category you got your GC - EB1, 2 or 3?

GRP, IMHO, personal questions are best asked via PMs.


June VB out!

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5953.html

No change in EB2I.

:) A regular Flash Gordon, aren't you. GRP announced it here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013?p=35211#post35211).

[CleanSock]

Nope, this is my first time announcing it :) I just happened to have checked as soon as they released and noticed no post on it in the blog, so went ahead and posted :)


GRP, IMHO, personal questions are best asked via PMs.



:) A regular Flash Gordon, aren't you.

[indiani]

Matt,

Thanks for your comments on EB1.

I found both Q and your comments very interesting and it is reassuring to know that other people have similar concerns.

The old timers will remember that it took me almost the whole year to finally acknowledge that low Trackitt EB1 approvals in FY2011 actually reflected the reality due to Kazarian.

Because of that experience, there is certainly a bit of "once bitten, twice shy" in ignoring them completely on my part, even if my gut instinct is that they are showing a lower figure than is likely.

If EB1 were to use 36.5k, then Fall Down would be

EB1 ---- 8.7
EB4 ---- 3.2
EB5 ---- 1.2

Total - 13.1

if EB4 had 8k and EB5 had 10k approvals.

Of that, EB2-C would be entitled to 7% (0.9k) leaving a potential 12.2k Fall Down for EB2-I.

With the initial 3.2k EB2-I allocation that would leave a maximum of 15.4k total approvals available to EB2-I.

Of that, EB2-WW has the potential to use some of those.

The level of porting cases that are approved then determines how far the Cut Off Dates can advance.


Spec,

Potential spillover to EB2I will be equal to or less than 13K based on your analysis ; assuming EB2WW might consume all their quota (including the almost 5K FB which is already assigned to them)

If there is heavy porting in the coming months, then the dates might hardly cross 2007, is this fair conclusion or am I missing something?

[Spectator]

Spec,

Potential spillover to EB2I will be equal to or less than 13K based on your analysis ; assuming EB2WW might consume all their quota (including the almost 5K FB which is already assigned to them)

If there is heavy porting in the coming months, then the dates might hardly cross 2007, is this fair conclusion or am I missing something?indiani,

As you have outlined it and with the assumptions you have made, that is not impossible. For Cut Off Dates to actually end in 2007, EB2-WW would probably also need to consume some of that 12.2k Fall Down and Porting approvals would have to be higher than most people seem to be projecting.

Please bear in mind there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to how EB1 is going to perform. I included the figure to show what it could mean.

[ksur23]

Great update qesehmk!

What about FY2014? Do you think the chances are there would be another retrogression? How long before 2009s become current? (I have a Jan 2009 PD and hence the curiosity). Thanks once again!


General Prediction - anybody in EB2IC category who is interested in understanding time to get GC - should keep in mind 2 things:
1. Time to GC is generally 4-5 years since your PD.
2. Time to GC is a step function. i.e. generally more % of approvals come between Jun-Sep every years. Oct-May is generally uneventful for most people. The reason being - that generally USCIS/DOS do NOT do quarterly spillover and hence for EB2IC the monthly quota is paltry and very few people can get their GC in that quota. The major dates movement happens at the end of USCIS year i.e. between Jun-Sep every year.


2013 Prediction (Updated based on DOS data) - Updated May 12th.

Summary Prediction - EB2IC backlog will be cleared between May-Jul 2008 by Sep 2013.

Reasoning

Headwinds to EB2IC
1. EB5 - Looks like EB5 will yield little to none SOFAD. There is strong demand in EB5 both in 485 as well as CP cases.
2. EB2ROW - EB2ROW most likely is not going to yield any extra visas to EB2IC. EB2ROW has quite strong demand (50% more compared to last year). Its possible that ROW will consume 3K more than its quota.
3. EB4 - Has strong demand and will probably yield 3K to EB1.
4. EB1 - Has strong demand and will yield about 1K to EB1.

Tailwinds to EB2IC
1. The only thing working for EB2IC is the 18K extra family visas. Of them EB2IC will receive 9K since EB3 and EB5 are going to require all the extra visas they get.

Thus EB2IC should expect to receive overall 9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +1K (EB1) +6K (Quota) = 19K visas.

That should be sufficient to clear EB2IC backlog through May-Jul 2008 if you consider porting at 3K.

Unfortunately that seems a very plausible scenario. The upside to this forecast couldn't be more than 2 months and downside could be 2 months. So The range for EB2IC backlog to be cleared should be looked at between Mar-Sep 2008. Thus any hopes of dates moving into 2009 in a sustainable manner are zero if any. The dates could still move into 2009 if CO wants to build any inventory. But I would put those chances at next to zero.

Those interested in playing these scenarios themselves can use the paid service at www.whereismygc.com (http://www.whereismygc.com) especially if you want to play out scenarios, build your own forecast and/or your dates are farther than Jul 2008. Good luck.

[MATT2012]

Please bear in mind there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to how EB1 is going to perform. I included the figure to show what it could mean.

Just to add to Spec's point on uncertanity, Trackitt figures show 20% drop in approvals for EB1. As Spec/Q pointed out it too good to be true. But for the sake of discussion I could make an argument favoring a similar level of drop. There is a 17% drop in pending inventory when we compare Jan 2012 EB1 inventory to Jan 2013. if those drops continue in the next inventory, the numbers could change a little more favourable toward EB2I. On the other hand, it could also mean that too many EB1 cases are getting approved.
Currently the range of EB1 consumption varies from 32K to 40K, depending upon how we look at the data. 36K being the mid point. At this point I am hoping that the upcoming inventory will give us some more clarity.

[qesehmk]

ksur - forecasting generally is more accurate for near term vs long term. Overall I can say that historically 5 years from PD is rule of thumb. But as per next years' movements one can say about it with any confidence only after Oct 2013 when then 485 inventory will be published and in Dec when annual report for 2013 will show the consumption. Those two things will conclusively tell us then trends within EB1 and EB2ROW (and now EB3ROW which has become an added uncertainty).

Don't mean to advertise whereismygc tool. But since you asked - that tool is built to simulate the visa allocation process that DoS uses. So one can adjust the parameters to the tool to figure out the answer to his/her own situation.


Great update qesehmk!

What about FY2014? Do you think the chances are there would be another retrogression? How long before 2009s become current? (I have a Jan 2009 PD and hence the curiosity). Thanks once again!

[yank]

Q,

Why EB3 ROW movement is a worry factor for EB2 I. How EB3 ROW movement will encourage porting from EB3 -> EB2 for ROW? As per VB the purpose is to generate demand for EB3 ROW. Do we have any rough no for EB2 ROW usage for this fiscal yr?

Please reply.

Thanks

[qesehmk]

The question about EB3ROW that I have is - how much is due to EB3 porting to EB2 in ROW. If there is too much porting in EB3 then that means reduced EB2ROW SOFAD to EB2IC. Makes sense?

Please check Spec's and mine discussion on this a couple of pages back. Hope that helps.



Q,

Why EB3 ROW movement is a worry factor for EB2 I. How EB3 ROW movement will encourage porting from EB3 -> EB2 for ROW? As per VB the purpose is to generate demand for EB3 ROW. Do we have any rough no for EB2 ROW usage for this fiscal yr?

Please reply.

Thanks

[Vkkpnm]

Spec/Viz,
Would you like to update your prediction on the first page based on recent DD or you are good with your old prediction.

Thanks

[vizcard]

Spec/Viz,
Would you like to update your prediction on the first page based on recent DD or you are good with your old prediction.

Thanks

I'm not first page material but I do believe that we will end up around June 2008 and at the very outside July 2008.