EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Spectator]

Due to new I-485 from 2007 and 2008, I came up with the 80% approval rate. I was looking at the pattern of visa dates movement in 2008, after the July 2007 fiasco. The controller kind of did similar to what he is doing now. I am also thinking multistep a halt between 2005/2006. A halt around July/August 2007 and finally into 2008. Not sure whether it will be two step or three step.Matt,

I agree with you that a first move to a Cut Off Date of not later than about 01AUG07 is quite likely for several reasons.

That would only leave 2 months for any later new I-485 to be approved before dates likely retrogress in October 2013, since they could not be submitted until August at the earliest.

I would say that (bordering on) zero are likely to be approved within 60 days of submitting an I-485, perhaps rising to 55% tops if they had 90 days to be adjudicated. That's assuming dates only move beyond July 2007 in August/July and for those received on the first day the VB becomes effective. Those figures are based on approval times last year for the period when new I-485 had to be submitted.

For EB2-ROW cases this FY the respective % approval times within 60 and 90 days are 11% & 27% respectively (on a much smaller sample size).


Also, something that may be a factor and unlike previous years, a large number of EB3-ROW-M-C cases are going to be ready to adjudicate in Q4. Their dates need to move well beyond July 2007 in the May VB at the latest, which will put most approvals in Q4 and in competition for adjudication resources.

[MATT2012]

We can to a certain degree rule off any new EB2I 485 applications getting through this fiscal.

I think given what we discussed above the first stoppage before Aug,2007, all interfilings have an extra month than any adjudicated applications between Aug 2007 and March 2008. So majority of the portings will get through, dependent on the speed of the adjudicator.

I completely agree with you. I think USICS is preparing for EB3-ROW-M-C cases, for me the updated processing times is an early indicator. Does it also mean a spillover to EB3I, only time will prove!!

Matt,

I agree with you that a first move to a Cut Off Date of not later than about 01AUG07 is quite likely for several reasons.

That would only leave 2 months for any later new I-485 to be approved before dates likely retrogress in October 2013, since they could not be submitted until August at the earliest.

I would say that (bordering on) zero are likely to be approved within 60 days of submitting an I-485, perhaps rising to 55% tops if they had 90 days to be adjudicated. That's assuming dates only move beyond July 2007 in August/July and for those received on the first day the VB becomes effective. Those figures are based on approval times last year for the period when new I-485 had to be submitted.

For EB2-ROW cases this FY the respective % approval times within 60 and 90 days are 11% & 27% respectively (on a much smaller sample size).


Also, something that may be a factor and unlike previous years, a large number of EB3-ROW-M-C cases are going to be ready to adjudicate in Q4. Their dates need to move well beyond July 2007 in the May VB at the latest, which will put most approvals in Q4 and in competition for adjudication resources.

[Spectator]

We can to a certain degree rule off any new EB2I 485 applications getting through this fiscal.

I think given what we discussed above the first stoppage before Aug,2007, all interfilings have an extra month than any adjudicated applications between Aug 2007 and March 2008. So majority of the portings will get through, dependent on the speed of the adjudicator.

I completely agree with you. I think USICS is preparing for EB3-ROW-M-C cases, for me the updated processing times is an early indicator. Does it also mean a spillover to EB3I, only time will prove!!Matt,

I agree with you.

I haven't given much thought to where the dates might initially move to, but these are my very early thoughts.

All the spillover won't be released in a single month. I think CO has to give some thought to monthly allocations, other people competing for resources and understanding the number of porting applications invisible to him.

CO might front load the split into the first 2 months and leave the third month to balance supply vs demand.

Using a hypothetical example, if he expected 14k visas to be available to EB2-I in Q4, then the split could be something like 6:6:2 The number in the first 2 months would be the minimum (or just below) the number he felt would be available.

There are currently 2k cases before 2007 in the DD. There might be as many as 4k porters before 2007 waiting for their PD to become Current to complete the interfiling process.

In this hypothetical example, with 6k available in July, the Cut Off Date would theoretically move to 01JAN07.

Does that logic sound sensible?

We would certainly know if there is Fall Across to EB3-I in the September VB. In order to benefit, the Cut Off Date would have to be advanced significantly.

[MATT2012]

Logically I am also in the same thought line, splitting between two months will not benefit the visibility much. just as the demand start showing up, it is time to release the next month bulletin. I also think a split between three months is where we are heading too.

A weird thought: Will the controller think of pushing the porting demand after 2004 to the next fiscal, where by building the demand for next fiscal? One other possible benefit, it may help State Dept. in pushing USICS to develop an effective process for tracking porting. I don't think he will, just a thought.


Matt,

I agree with you.

I haven't given much thought to where the dates might initially move to, but these are my very early thoughts.

All the spillover won't be released in a single month. I think CO has to give some thought to monthly allocations, other people competing for resources and understanding the number of porting applications invisible to him.

CO might front load the split into the first 2 months and leave the third month to balance supply vs demand.

Using a hypothetical example, if he expected 14k visas to be available to EB2-I in Q4, then the split could be something like 6:6:2 The number in the first 2 months would be the minimum (or just below) the number he felt would be available.

There are currently 2k cases before 2007 in the DD. There might be as many as 4k porters before 2007 waiting for their PD to become Current to complete the interfiling process.

In this hypothetical example, with 6k available in July, the Cut Off Date would theoretically move to 01JAN07.

Does that logic sound sensible?

We would certainly know if there is Fall Across to EB3-I in the September VB. In order to benefit, the Cut Off Date would have to be advanced significantly.

[Spectator]

Thoughts inline.

Logically I am also in the same thought line, splitting between two months will not benefit the visibility much. just as the demand start showing up, it is time to release the next month bulletin.

That's why I thought CO might only be able to set the Cut Off Date in August based on the minimum number of visas he thought would be available to EB2-I.

By the time he sets the September VB in early August, he would have one month's visibility of porting numbers and a further month's worth of visibility on EB2-WW demand. That would let him set a better September Cut Off Date.

I also think a split between three months is where we are heading too.

A weird thought: Will the controller think of pushing the porting demand after 2004 to the next fiscal, where by building the demand for next fiscal? One other possible benefit, it may help State Dept. in pushing USICS to develop an effective process for tracking porting. I don't think he will, just a thought.

I'm not sure I can see a mechanism that would achieve that, while still allowing non porting EB2 to be approved.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey All Gurus -

My priority Date is 14/5/08 w/EAD/AP- what do you think is the possibility of getting greended in FY2013? Also if assuming PD hits Apr'08 in Sept 13 VB - what do you think is the possibility after the retrogression to come back to Mid 2008 in Q4 FY 2014?

thanks


Thoughts inline.

[incredible]

Hi Gurus
I have a question. My priority date is 02/01/2010 EB2I. I have received EAD/AP earlier last year as well got them renewed recently. My work place (same employer who filed my GC) allows remote work and even our HR is fine with me working from different location. I am planning to move out of state (of the current state where Labor, 140 as wel as 485 were filed). What are the implications of this in the GC process ? What should I ask my employer to do so as to facilitate me to move to a different state.

Thanks for your help.

[qesehmk]

incredible welcome to forum. since its already been more than 180 days since filing 485 and I assume your 140 is approved too - you are already eligible with AC21. So if for some reason USCIS hypothetically objects your moving to another state (even if with same company) you are free to invoke AC21 and that's why your company is ok with you moving to another state.
Hi Gurus
I have a question. My priority date is 02/01/2010 EB2I. I have received EAD/AP earlier last year as well got them renewed recently. My work place (same employer who filed my GC) allows remote work and even our HR is fine with me working from different location. I am planning to move out of state (of the current state where Labor, 140 as wel as 485 were filed). What are the implications of this in the GC process ? What should I ask my employer to do so as to facilitate me to move to a different state.

Thanks for your help.

[garihc27]

Gurus,

My case is pretty messed up . Originally applied for PERM in May 2008. After 2 audits, 1 BALCA reversal decision, 1 DOL reject I am currently in the 2nd BALCA appeal. I have been trying to track my BALCA appeal on the OLJ website, so I know a decision has not been made. Is there a way to guess the timeframe BALCA takes for an appeal? I am not getting a whole lot of information from my lawyers.

Thanks!

[vizcard]

Gurus,

My case is pretty messed up . Originally applied for PERM in May 2008. After 2 audits, 1 BALCA reversal decision, 1 DOL reject I am currently in the 2nd BALCA appeal. I have been trying to track my BALCA appeal on the OLJ website, so I know a decision has not been made. Is there a way to guess the timeframe BALCA takes for an appeal? I am not getting a whole lot of information from my lawyers.

Thanks!

Google helps
http://www.oalj.dol.gov/LIBINA.HTM

[garihc27]

Google helps
http://www.oalj.dol.gov/LIBINA.HTM

Thanks! That is the website I have been following to see if a decision has been made or not. There is no info on the timeframe to make the decision as far as I can tell.

[mrdeeds]

Gurus,

My case is pretty messed up . Originally applied for PERM in May 2008. After 2 audits, 1 BALCA reversal decision, 1 DOL reject I am currently in the 2nd BALCA appeal. I have been trying to track my BALCA appeal on the OLJ website, so I know a decision has not been made. Is there a way to guess the timeframe BALCA takes for an appeal? I am not getting a whole lot of information from my lawyers.

Thanks!

GariHC27,

If you know the docket number, you can call the clerk of the Judge handling your case (his/her name would be on the BALCA appeal copy which you would have received) and ask him/her nicely about the timeframe. They will typically give you an estimate based on the current caseload. I have done it couple of times successfully when my appeal was pending.

Having been through the process, I feel for you and wish you the very best. I don't know your particular case but in my case, I knew that the appeal was going to be denied and it was only a time-buying strategy to find alternate options.

Good Luck!

[vizcard]

Thanks! That is the website I have been following to see if a decision has been made or not. There is no info on the timeframe to make the decision as far as I can tell.

Have you tried calling their hotline and the USCIS hotlines?

[MATT2012]

At this point nobody has ruled out May 2008 priority date for this fiscal. Now for your second question about dates coming back to Mid 2008 next fiscal. We have to assume the porting level will stay the same for next fiscal. So it will be a slow movement next fiscal also. One can conclude only an the end of this fiscal based upon how far the existing demand got cleared.


Hey All Gurus -

My priority Date is 14/5/08 w/EAD/AP- what do you think is the possibility of getting greended in FY2013? Also if assuming PD hits Apr'08 in Sept 13 VB - what do you think is the possibility after the retrogression to come back to Mid 2008 in Q4 FY 2014?

thanks

[imdeng]

Thanks Spec for posting the link. I am very interested in demographics of US immigration - and this report always contains great information.

A slight hint for the reason FB visas went unused in FY2012 is contained in the DHS U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2012 (http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ois_lpr_fr_2012_2.pdf) publication.



I'm not sure that is the entire reason.

[gtyagi]

I am not sure if it is already updated on this thread but the Labor processing dates have been updated on the http://icert.doleta.gov/

[Spectator]

I am not sure if it is already updated on this thread but the Labor processing dates have been updated on the http://icert.doleta.gov/gtyagi,

Thank you.

[Spectator]

At the end of
FY2010 it was 1,125
FY2011 - 3,347
FY2012 - 5,018
FY2013 - 6,075 in the last figures published

Hi Spec,

Where did you find the above EB5 backlog data?Sorry, I missed the question previously.

The data can be found in the USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) under I-526. Then download the raw data.

The number is the sum of All Other Pending & Awaiting customer action.

My data goes back further than is now available.

[MATT2012]

Thanks for getting back to it..

Have a look at the below website, they have published EB-5 backlog data.
I was looking into verifying for myself.

http://eb5-visa.net/blog/


Sorry, I missed the question previously.

The data can be found in the USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) under I-526. Then download the raw data.

My data goes back further than is now available.

[Spectator]

Thanks for getting back to it..

Have a look at the below website, they have published EB-5 backlog data.
I was looking into verifying for myself.

http://eb5-visa.net/blog/Thanks.

I had the lucidtext.com figures already.

I can't work out how the person has arrived at the Backlog as a % of Adjudicated figures. They do not match up to the published figures.

I can't go all the way back to FY2005 but I do have the Backlog at the end of FY2009 onwards.

The % on that basis is

FY2009 - 35% compared to 16% in article
FY2010 - 73% compared to 43% in article
FY2011 - 173% compared to 131% in article
FY2012 - 108% compared to 85% in article

I actually think the backlog raw number is more important.

The current 6,075 I-526 cases pending represents 14,094 EB5 approvals (142% of normal quota) at the current 80% approval rate for I-526 and the 2.9 immigrants per approved I-526.

Historically, using the same assumptions (actually, in some years approval % have been higher), the corresponding number of EB5 approvals in the backlog at the end of the FY has been

FY2009 - 1,192 = 12% of normal quota
FY2010 - 2,610 = 26% of normal quota
FY2011 - 7,765 = 78% of normal quota
FY2012 - 11,642 = 117% of normal quota

At the point the backlog stops growing (or worse starts to decrease), there is a potential explosion in EB5 approvals. Only the current very slow adjudication process by USCIS is keeping the numbers in check.

[MATT2012]

USICS statistics is the final word. I have put my comments in between the lines. For my calculation purposes I am in full agreement with you on EB5. Somewhere in July timeframe is USICS shifting their processing of eB5 from CA to Washington?.

Thanks.

I had the lucidtext.com figures already.

I can't work out how the person has arrived at the Backlog as a % of Adjudicated figures. They do not match up to the published figures.
Agree with you that it is not matching published figures. I think his logic is previous years back log + receipts - adjudicated= current year backlog. I think he is working it back from 2006. Got curious seeing the number.

I can't go all the way back to FY2005 but I do have the Backlog at the end of FY2009 onwards.

The % on that basis is

FY2009 - 35% compared to 16% in article
FY2010 - 73% compared to 43% in article
FY2011 - 173% compared to 131% in article
FY2012 - 108% compared to 85% in article


I actually think the backlog raw number is more important.
Agree with you "][/COLOR]


The current 6,075 I-526 cases pending represents 14,094 EB5 approvals (142% of normal quota) at the current 80% approval rate for I-526 and the 2.9 immigrants per approved I-526.

Historically, using the same assumptions (actually, in some years approval % have been higher), the corresponding number of EB5 approvals in the backlog at the end of the FY has been

FY2009 - 1,192 = 12% of normal quota
FY2010 - 2,610 = 26% of normal quota
FY2011 - 7,765 = 78% of normal quota
FY2012 - 11,642 = 117% of normal quota

At the point the backlog stops growing (or worse starts to decrease), there is a potential explosion in EB5 approvals. Only the current very slow adjudication process by USCIS is keeping the numbers in check.

[eb20508]

Gurus I have quick question regarding AC21. My priority date is May'08 - EB2I. If I change my Job in Jun'13 and If my date is current in Aug'13. Will I be able to get my GC after AC21? or it's bad decision to move at this time frame?

[vizcard]

Gurus I have quick question regarding AC21. My priority date is May'08 - EB2I. If I change my Job in Jun'13 and If my date is current in Aug'13. Will I be able to get my GC after AC21? or it's bad decision to move at this time frame?

Shouldnt be an issue. Id have your lawyer draft the letter to the USCIS (there is no AC21 form) and get an EVL from the new company and send those to the USCIS in the July timeframe. If you can send a paystub, thats good too.

[erikbond101]

Hey,
I was going through previous years demand data information and now I have 2 points/questions. Hopefully gurus can shed some light:

1- Can we assume porting numbers by looking at demand data of previous 2 FY 2011,2012? cumulative reduction is 4994 (11800 - 6806) till Jan 1 2007 and cannot be higher. So average porting in last 2 FY is 2500 till Jan 1 2007. Is this safe assumption.

EB3 Demand data till Jan 1 2007
Sep 2010-----56050
Sep 2011-----51100
Sep 2012-----44250
total reduction - 11800

EB3 visa issued in fiscal year
2012----2804
2011----4002
Total EB3 issued--6806


2- The demand data reduction for EB3 from Jun 12 to April 13 is 4850. And total EB3 visa issued will be 234*11 months= 2574 visas. That means around (4850-2574=2276) 2276 may have ported to EB2 in 11 months. Some of them already have GC issued in past 6 months as date is stuck at Sep 2004 (5*234=1170).
Even though USCIS is saying demand data shows only preadjudicated cases. Then where does 1106 demand reduction go. They all cannot be pre Sep 2004.

Jun 2012 45250
Oct 2012 43900
Apr 2013 40400

4850 -- Total reduction
2574 --EB3 visa issued
1170 -- EB2 ported visa issued in 5 months
1106 -- ??????????

I hope you guys can provide some insight on these.

[MATT2012]

During the past few months I have analyzed the demand data as well as USICS inventory in multiple ways. Some movements in data is normally not possible when priority date is not current. So the data that we have is not fully accurate.
Now let me try to answer your question:-
The total reduction in demand is spread between different years. So it is certain, that all is not before 2004. That points to couple of possibilities.
a) Applications filed when priority dates are current is slowly showing up
b) Data clean up is happening
c) Some percentage of porting is getting reflected even when priority dates are not current

it can be any of the three or also various combination of the three.

Let me try to address the basic question you have, which is porting. As our understanding of data is limited to various interpretations, it is extremely difficult to quantify it. But from my analysis with the data we have, there is ATLEAST 40% increase in porting on a monthly basis and we have 16 months of demand in this fiscal. So now the question is what is the max possible for porting. Honestly I don't have a clear cut answer. if you browse couple of pages in this thread you can see Spec helping me out in figuring out one way of looking into the scenario.

Hey,
I was going through previous years demand data information and now I have 2 points/questions. Hopefully gurus can shed some light:

1- Can we assume porting numbers by looking at demand data of previous 2 FY 2011,2012? cumulative reduction is 4994 (11800 - 6806) till Jan 1 2007 and cannot be higher. So average porting in last 2 FY is 2500 till Jan 1 2007. Is this safe assumption.

EB3 Demand data till Jan 1 2007
Sep 2010-----56050
Sep 2011-----51100
Sep 2012-----44250
total reduction - 11800

EB3 visa issued in fiscal year
2012----2804
2011----4002
Total EB3 issued--6806


2- The demand data reduction for EB3 from Jun 12 to April 13 is 4850. And total EB3 visa issued will be 234*11 months= 2574 visas. That means around (4850-2574=2276) 2276 may have ported to EB2 in 11 months. Some of them already have GC issued in past 6 months as date is stuck at Sep 2004 (5*234=1170).
Even though USCIS is saying demand data shows only preadjudicated cases. Then where does 1106 demand reduction go. They all cannot be pre Sep 2004.

Jun 2012 45250
Oct 2012 43900
Apr 2013 40400

4850 -- Total reduction
2574 --EB3 visa issued
1170 -- EB2 ported visa issued in 5 months
1106 -- ??????????

I hope you guys can provide some insight on these.

[nishant2200]

Shouldnt be an issue. Id have your lawyer draft the letter to the USCIS (there is no AC21 form) and get an EVL from the new company and send those to the USCIS in the July timeframe. If you can send a paystub, thats good too.

I believe if new job is good for your career don't miss opportunity. Legally no problem if same or similar job with salary >= needed for GC position as in labor when filed.

[nishant2200]

Hey All Gurus -

My priority Date is 14/5/08 w/EAD/AP- what do you think is the possibility of getting greended in FY2013? Also if assuming PD hits Apr'08 in Sept 13 VB - what do you think is the possibility after the retrogression to come back to Mid 2008 in Q4 FY 2014?

thanks

I feel there will always be pattern of big retrogression in formative quarters of a FY and depending on SO, movement in last quarter. This might change when CO reaches inventory running out.

And probability of 5/2008 is on the low end like 0.1. A chance is a chance though.

[longwait100]

With the prediction for the spillover numbers dwindling down everyday, how much likely is it for a PD of Aug 2007 (485 filed already) for EB2I to have his GC in FY2013?

[vizcard]

With the prediction for the spillover numbers dwindling down everyday, how much likely is it for a PD of Aug 2007 (485 filed already) for EB2I to have his GC in FY2013?

100%. I can't see a scenario where you won't get a GC based on numbers.

[dec2007]

100%. I can't see a scenario where you won't get a GC based on numbers.

Vizcard, can we say the same for PD of Dec 31, 2007. I'm in a crossroads at work., need to take few important decisions.
thankyou,

[qesehmk]

Yes. I think so.
Vizcard, can we say the same for PD of Dec 31, 2007. I'm in a crossroads at work., need to take few important decisions.
thankyou,

[vizcard]

Yes. I think so.

dec2007 - what he said ^

are you speaking for me now Q ? :p just kidding :)

[qesehmk]

LoL! I didn't realize that. Sorry. But to answer his question .... yes I do think 2007 Dec should easily cruise through.
dec2007 - what he said ^

are you speaking for me now Q ? :p just kidding :)

[gardas]

How about PD of 03/25/2008 getting GC this year?

[Summer_13]

Based on the predictions, it looks like Aug 2008 PD might become current this year.
What about October 2008 Gurus? You think max by next year?
I got my EAD last year in March 2012. But with Baby#1 on the way, i wanted to take up something part time and quit full time. I understand EAD would not allow that since i am the primary applicant. I am eagerly waiting for the GC that would allow me part time work schedule.
My husband and i both have separate GC applications and PD's.

[helooo]

Hello gurus,
Any Prediction for EB2 I May Visa Bulletin?

[sbhagwat2000]

Hello gurus,
Any Prediction for EB2 I May Visa Bulletin?

It will stay same or retrogress as co has said

[iamdeb]

Hi Gurus,

What kind of impact will CIR have on the visa movement. Is there going to any relief for EB IC candidates or will it all be about Family Visas and Illegal immigrants?

Thanks!
Deb

[Spectator]

Welcome to Q3, although I think it will be rather uneventful for EB2-I.

EB2-ROW reached the total number of Trackitt approvals seen in FY2012 in late March 2013.

EB2-M & EB2-P have both exceeded the number in FY2012 as well, though the number of Trackitt approvals for these two Countries is quite low.

Nonetheless, it is likely that EB2-WW has already reached 25k approvals for the year.

If so, to merely use up their allocation for the year requires only a further 14k approvals, after which they will start using Fall Down from EB1.

That is an average of 2.3k per month, which is less than 85% of the average seen in both of the last 2 years.

It is a warning sign that we should be aware of.

Hopefully, EB2-WW approvals will now start to level off.

[vizcard]

Welcome to Q3, although I think it will be rather uneventful for EB2-I.

EB2-ROW reached the total number of Trackitt approvals seen in FY2012 in late March 2013.

EB2-M & EB2-P have both exceeded the number in FY2012 as well, though the number of Trackitt approvals for these two Countries is quite low.

Nonetheless, it is likely that EB2-WW has already reached 25k approvals for the year.

If so, to merely use up their allocation for the year requires only a further 14k approvals, after which they will start using Fall Down from EB1.

That is an average of 2.3k per month, which is less than 85% of the average seen in both of the last 2 years.

It is a warning sign that we should be aware of.

Hopefully, EB2-WW approvals will now start to level off.

Booooooo ... JK :)


It is a waiting game. I for one am not going to stress about this until July and I hope others do the same too.

[MATT2012]

Trackitt sample trend makes total sense. The current demand is 9 months of demand in 6 months. Last year we had 9 months. March EB2-ROW approval levels were similar compared to March of last fiscal, considering people may come back and update in the next few days.38-39K demand EB2WW, is probably where the demand is headed to. One more month may give us a better picture of demand levelling. What is making it difficult to conclude is, I dont see those trends from labor data.

On the EB1 side, possibility of more spillovers than I previously thought!!


Welcome to Q3, although I think it will be rather uneventful for EB2-I.

EB2-ROW reached the total number of Trackitt approvals seen in FY2012 in late March 2013.

EB2-M & EB2-P have both exceeded the number in FY2012 as well, though the number of Trackitt approvals for these two Countries is quite low.

Nonetheless, it is likely that EB2-WW has already reached 25k approvals for the year.

If so, to merely use up their allocation for the year requires only a further 14k approvals, after which they will start using Fall Down from EB1.

That is an average of 2.3k per month, which is less than 85% of the average seen in both of the last 2 years.

It is a warning sign that we should be aware of.

Hopefully, EB2-WW approvals will now start to level off.

[seattlet]

Spec / Matt,
Any idea what % of EB 2 WW approvals during the first 6 months of 2013 is for 2012 retrogressed EB2 WW folks.

[Spectator]

Trackitt sample trend makes total sense. The current demand is 9 months of demand in 6 months. Last year we had 9 months. March EB2-ROW approval levels were similar compared to March of last fiscal, considering people may come back and update in the next few days.38-39K demand EB2WW, is probably where the demand is headed to. One more month may give us a better picture of demand levelling. What is making it difficult to conclude is, I dont see those trends from labor data.

On the EB1 side, possibility of more spillovers than I previously thought!!Matt,

I don't disagree with anything you have said. I am only pointing out that because the missing 3 months from FY2012 has been caught up in only 6 months, it introduces the potential for use in excess of the allocation. Like you, I wish to see what approvals over the next 1-2 months look like.

Imagine if the extra FB visas had not materialised!

I am finding EB1 very difficult to predict this year. There are very few non EB1-I approvals on Trackitt. That's a problem because non EB1-I is likely to represent 75% of total EB1 approvals. Currently, they only represent 16% of Trackitt Approvals (compared to 31% in FY2012) and it is dragging the number down to the mid 30's.

If EB1-I numbers on Trackitt are considered more representative of EB1 performance as a whole this year, then EB1 is heading for similar usage to FY2012.

I have no idea which is the correct interpretation.

[Spectator]

Spec / Matt,
Any idea what % of EB 2 WW approvals during the first 6 months of 2013 is for 2012 retrogressed EB2 WW folks.seattlet,

There is some breakdown by PD in this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1373-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2013-vs-FY2012) for EB2-ROW. The Trackitt numbers for EB2-M and EB2-P are a bit low for me to feel confident they are entirely reliable.

If that is not what you are asking, then I think you need to define exactly what you mean by "2012 retrogressed EB2 WW folks".

The major surge of receipts (according to Trackitt) was seen in June 2012 (just before retrogression) and in November 2012 (when EB2-WW became Current again). 17% and 26% of those remain pending on Trackitt. Given that there is a % on Trackitt that never update their case, I would say the majority of those cases have probably now been dealt with.

[gcpursuit]

Hello Gurus,

I have a situation and I would really appreciate all your insights. My PD is 29-June-2009 EB2-I : No I-1485 filed yet. My wife is on H1B too (thankfully). Her 6 years of H1b expires in sep 2015. Do you think we would get our GC before its expiration. Should we try to start a new petition for her so that she can extend her H1b.

With all the spillover numbers getting weak by the minute, when do you think things will move to 2009?

Thanks!

[Spectator]

Hello Gurus,

I have a situation and I would really appreciate all your insights. My PD is 29-June-2009 EB2-I : No I-1485 filed yet. My wife is on H1B too (thankfully). Her 6 years of H1b expires in sep 2015. Do you think we would get our GC before its expiration. Should we try to start a new petition for her so that she can extend her H1b.

With all the spillover numbers getting weak by the minute, when do you think things will move to 2009?

Thanks!gcpursuit,

I hesitate to even attempt to answer this question.

It is too far in the future.

My personal opinion is that your PD will not have become Current by September 2015.

To do so would require too many approvals and unless EB were to continue to receive large amounts of extra numbers from FB, I don't see where that number of visas would come from.

I would not want to guess when the Cut Off Dates will move to 2009. There are too many variables.

I think passage of CIR is your best hope.

[gcpursuit]

Spec,

Thank you for your opinion.I was hoping that the extra visas from FB would clear a lot of 2008 cases. That looks impossible now.

From historical data, how many extra visas does EB2-I get at the minimum end? Is there such a number?

thanks!

[geterdone]

gcpursuit,

I hesitate to even attempt to answer this question.

It is too far in the future.

My personal opinion is that your PD will not have become Current by September 2015.

To do so would require too many approvals and unless EB were to continue to receive large amounts of extra numbers from FB, I don't see where that number of visas would come from.

I would not want to guess when the Cut Off Dates will move to 2009. There are too many variables.

I think passage of CIR is your best hope.

Wow, I am a bit surprised (due to lack of knowledge about the entire process) that 2009 PD will have tough time getting GC in Sept 2015. So I guess the general assumption that GC in 4-5 years from your PD (which is even mentioned as a general rule on page 1 by Q) is no longer valid. So is it now going to be 6-7 years?

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thank you for your opinion.I was hoping that the extra visas from FB would clear a lot of 2008 cases. That looks impossible now.

From historical data, how many extra visas does EB2-I get at the minimum end? Is there such a number?

thanks!You can find the historical figures here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards).

The lowest figure in the time period (FY2009) gave 7.5k extra visas to EB2-IC. You need to look at the figures and understand the historical factors that influenced them. As an example, in FY2009 5.7k of those extra visas came from EB5, which wouldn't be repeated today. Other factors may have changed for the positive. For example, EB4 approvals have reduced.

In most years, another factor (or factors) have ensured that EB2-IC received more spillover than that seen in FY2009.

[druvraj]

Spec,

Are you now expecting less that 14K for EB2I?

[Spectator]

Wow, I am a bit surprised (due to lack of knowledge about the entire process) that 2009 PD will have tough time getting GC in Sept 2015. So I guess the general assumption that GC in 4-5 years from your PD (which is even mentioned as a general rule on page 1 by Q) is no longer valid. So is it now going to be 6-7 years?eterdone,

Sorry to be so gloomy.

I think it is almost inevitable that wait times will increase, due to the sheer number of EB2-I cases that are pending and the number of visas likely to be available.

Let me use a very simplistic extrapolation. Please don't get hung up about the actual numbers used in the example.

From the beginning of FY2013, to reach a Cut Off Date of 01JUL09 required about 32k approvals for EB2-I, if there were no other cases to account for.

However, the above does not account for porting. For the example, let's assume there are 6k extra for FY2013 and 4k for each subsequent year.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6 = 38k in one year (FY2013). Average approvals required per year = 38k.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4 = 42k in two years (FY2013-FY2014). Average approvals required per year = 21k.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4+4 = 46k in three years (FY2013-FY2015). Average approvals required per year = 15.3k.

Given the current trends, I don't see where that number would come from within the EB allocation alone.

Maybe I am just not imaginative enough. :)

[sbhagwat2000]

eterdone,

Sorry to be so gloomy.

I think it is almost inevitable that wait times will increase, due to the sheer number of EB2-I cases that are pending and the number of visas likely to be available.

Let me use a very simplistic extrapolation. Please don't get hung up about the actual numbers used in the example.

From the beginning of FY2013, to reach a Cut Off Date of 01JUL09 required about 32k approvals for EB2-I, if there were no other cases to account for.

However, the above does not account for porting. For the example, let's assume there are 6k extra for FY2013 and 4k for each subsequent year.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6 = 38k in one year (FY2013). Average approvals required per year = 38k.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4 = 42k in two years (FY2013-FY2014). Average approvals required per year = 21k.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4+4 = 46k in three years (FY2013-FY2015). Average approvals required per year = 15.3k.

Given the current trends, I don't see where that number would come from within the EB allocation alone.

Maybe I am just not imaginative enough. :)

Spec,

With the demand in EB2 WW are you changing your predictions about SOFAD and dates this year or do you thing its too early. It seems EB2 WW is slated to hit 40,000. On another note its kind of strange that with this kind of demand theres been no word from CO about a cutoff for EB2 WW

[Spectator]

Spec,

With the demand in EB2 WW are you changing your predictions about SOFAD and dates this year or do you thing its too early. It seems EB2 WW is slated to hit 40,000. On another note its kind of strange that with this kind of demand theres been no word from CO about a cutoff for EB2 WWsbhagwat2000,

CO did mention the possibility of EB2-WW retrogression at one point, but I think that was before the extra FB visas were announced.

Unless CO "pre-allocates" extra visas to EB2-I and then runs out of visas available to EB2 as a whole, then there is no prospect of EB2-WW retrogressing, however high the numbers might realistically reach.

EB2-WW are entitled to 86% of any Fall Down from EB1 (until they reach the 7% limits themselves) and that would cover any number EB2-WW might reach.

EB2-P would be most at risk, but they have several thousand extra visas within the overall 7% limit to play with. Very high EB2-P usage would only affect the number of approvals that EB3-P could receive and still stay within the overall 7% limit.

I want to wait and watch a little longer before updating any forecast.

[sbhagwat2000]

sbhagwat2000,

CO did mention the possibility of EB2-WW retrogression at one point, but I think that was before the extra FB visas were announced.

Unless CO "pre-allocates" extra visas to EB2-I and then runs out of visas available to EB2 as a whole, then there is no prospect of EB2-WW retrogressing, however high the numbers might realistically reach.

EB2-WW are entitled to 86% of any Fall Down from EB1 (until they reach the 7% limits themselves) and that would cover any number EB2-WW might reach.

EB2-P would be most at risk, but they have several thousand extra visas within the overall 7% limit to play with. Very high EB2-P usage would only affect the number of approvals that EB3-P could receive and still stay within the overall 7% limit.

I want to wait and watch a little longer before updating any forecast.

The only place where CO is said to have talked about retro for WW is on cilaw blog. Theres no official word about it like he did for EB5 in november nor anything about it in february before FB was allocated. Any ways I see now that WW will not retrogress. But what do you think would be the final number for WW- 39000-42000? Or can it go higher than that? at 42000 WW we are looking at 3000 EB1 + 4000 EB4 and 5 = 7000 SOFAD. What are ur thoughts?

[MATT2012]

Hi Spec,

In agreement with you on the representation of countries except India is very low for a statistical prediction. But I was looking at EB1C, I did observe a big drop in I-140 approvals for the six months ended March 31st. (71 Vs 108). Thoughts??

Thank GOD, If FB spillovers were not materialized, it would have been a major disaster year, with effects far spread into following fiscals!!!



Matt,

I don't disagree with anything you have said. I am only pointing out that because the missing 3 months from FY2012 has been caught up in only 6 months, it introduces the potential for use in excess of the allocation. Like you, I wish to see what approvals over the next 1-2 months look like.

Imagine if the extra FB visas had not materialised!

I am finding EB1 very difficult to predict this year. There are very few non EB1-I approvals on Trackitt. That's a problem because non EB1-I is likely to represent 75% of total EB1 approvals. Currently, they only represent 16% of Trackitt Approvals (compared to 31% in FY2012) and it is dragging the number down to the mid 30's.

If EB1-I numbers on Trackitt are considered more representative of EB1 performance as a whole this year, then EB1 is heading for similar usage to FY2012.

I have no idea which is the correct interpretation.

[suninphx]

sbhagwat - can you please explain how did you arrive at 42K number for EB2-WW? If I am following the recent posts here correctly then 9 months demand seem to have resulted in ~25 K approvals. To reach 42k for EB2-WW this FY ..approvals need to come at ~2.8K/month. In my opinion EB2-WW will consume -35k-36k visa this FY.

[tatikonda]

Spec,

Thank you for your opinion.I was hoping that the extra visas from FB would clear a lot of 2008 cases. That looks impossible now.

From historical data, how many extra visas does EB2-I get at the minimum end? Is there such a number?

thanks!

Am I missing something here, Extra Visas from FB are not coming ? how can that we be, I thought those were from FY2012.
So how come they be wrong on it ??

Please share your thoughts, gurus !

Thanks
Tatikonda

[vizcard]

sbhagwat - can you please explain how did you arrive at 42K number for EB2-WW? If I am following the recent posts here correctly then 9 months demand seem to have resulted in ~25 K approvals. To reach 42k for EB2-WW this FY ..approvals need to come at ~2.8K/month. In my opinion EB2-WW will consume -35k-36k visa this FY.

I'm going to speculate. Its 9 months demand realized in 6 months of calendar time because of retrogression last year. So its about another 2.5K/ month for the remainder 6 months. EB2ROW could very well be 40-42K this year.

[suninphx]

I'm going to speculate. Its 9 months demand realized in 6 months of calendar time because of retrogression last year. So its about another 2.5K/ month for the remainder 6 months. EB2ROW could very well be 40-42K this year.
Thats one way to calculate. Another (very simplistic) way would be 25/9*12 ~33K

[Spectator]

Thats one way to calculate. Another (very simplistic) way would be 25/9*12 ~33KPlus the the 3 months "missing" from FY2012.

So it would actually be 25/9*15 ~42K

Generally, September doesn't see such high approvals, so a bit lower than that maybe.

[Spectator]

Am I missing something here, Extra Visas from FB are not coming ? how can that we be, I thought those were from FY2012.
So how come they be wrong on it ??

Please share your thoughts, gurus !

Thanks
TatikondaTatikonda,

There will be extra visas, but even with them, the numbers available may not clear much of PD2008.

[Spectator]

sbhagwat - can you please explain how did you arrive at 42K number for EB2-WW? If I am following the recent posts here correctly then 9 months demand seem to have resulted in ~25 K approvals. To reach 42k for EB2-WW this FY ..approvals need to come at ~2.8K/month. In my opinion EB2-WW will consume -35k-36k visa this FY.suninphx,

In FY2012, the monthly average for EB2-WW was 2.8k over 9 months. For FY2011 it was 2.9k / month.

[suninphx]

When we consider 9 months didn't we cover those 3 months? may be I am missing something.

Also, are you saying that EB2-WW will go in next FY with 'zero' pending cases?

[Spectator]

When we consider 9 months didn't we cover those 3 months? may be I am missing something.

Also, are you saying that EB2-WW will go in next FY with 'zero' pending cases?This year to date = 9 months worth of approvals in 6 months.

6 months of year remains.

9 + 6 = 15

Overall, over 2 FY there are still 24 months of approvals in 24 months, just split asymmetrically.

The numbers pending are rolling numbers. As the old pending cases are approved, new ones take their place. There is no question of having zero pending cases, because that would require zero processing time.

USCIS have just processed the (artificially) higher number of pending cases that built up at the end of FY2012 and the beginning of FY2013 in much the same way as they processed large numbers of EB2-I cases last year.

[Kanmani]

Spec,

Do you think Mr.Co is repeating the same as last year by over releasing the available quota, this time to Eb2WW ?

9 months worth of EB2 WW cases getting cleared in 6 months might have used the 3rd quarter allocation too, is it not?

[Spectator]

Spec,

Do you think Mr.Co is repeating the same as last year by over releasing the available quota, this time to Eb2WW ?

9 months worth of EB2 WW cases getting cleared in 6 months might have used the 3rd quarter allocation too, is it not?Kanmani,

I don't think so.

I think CO has used under-use in other visa Categories to enable an acceleration of EB2-WW approvals.

Even within the initial EB limit of 140k, he seems to have used pretty close to the 27% limit per quarter allowed, as far as I can tell.

[Kanmani]

Can we, by any chance call this as quarterly spillover, this time allocated to Eb2ww?

[Spectator]

Can we, by any chance call this as quarterly spillover, this time allocated to Eb2ww?Probably.

It certainly made it impossible to allocate any extra numbers to EB2-I, although I am not convinced he would have done so anyway.

Had EB2-WW not needed them, a safer strategy would have been to accelerate EB3-ROW-M-C past July 2007 earlier than he has been able to.

Allocating Fall Down beyond the 7% limit, without good information on future usage, is altogether more risky, as he found out last year.

[Kanmani]

Thanks Spec.

I think he is neither learning lessons from previous years' nor following a definitive pattern. Suspenseful!!!

I personally believe June 2009 will get through by 2014.

[MATT2012]

My thought, the controller is still within the quarterly limits or slightly exceeded. There is a possibility that more(% wise) EB2ROW registered in trackitt, due to retrogression last year. There is no way to quantify the weightage of that. Does that make sense?

Probably.

It certainly made it impossible to allocate any extra numbers to EB2-I, although I am not convinced he would have done so anyway.

Had EB2-WW not needed them, a safer strategy would have been to accelerate EB3-ROW-M-C past July 2007 earlier than he has been able to.

Allocating Fall Down beyond the 7% limit, without good information on future usage, is altogether more risky, as he found out last year.

[Spectator]

My thought, the controller is still within the quarterly limits or slightly exceeded. There is a possibility that more(% wise) EB2ROW registered in trackitt, due to retrogression last year. There is no way to quantify the weightage of that. Does that make sense?I agree that is possible. As you say, impossible to quantify until after the event.

[vizcard]

My gut based on all the analysis and speculation so far is that when its all said and done, EB2I will get ALL of the EB1 FD but won't get any FA from EB2ROW. There is nothing concrete to suggest that anything other than normal usage is occuring (other than porting).

[gc_soon]

My gut based on all the analysis and speculation so far is that when its all said and done, EB2I will get ALL of the EB1 FD but won't get any FA from EB2ROW. There is nothing concrete to suggest that anything other than normal usage is occuring (other than porting).
vizcard,
In your guess when you say "won't get any FA from EB2ROW" - do you consider EB2ROW quota before FB spillover or adjusted figure with FB spillover?

[Spectator]

My gut based on all the analysis and speculation so far is that when its all said and done, EB2I will get ALL of the EB1 FD but won't get any FA from EB2ROW. There is nothing concrete to suggest that anything other than normal usage is occuring (other than porting).vizcard,

To be fair, at the moment, that is what I am expecting as well, though it is subject to change.


vizcard,
In your guess when you say "won't get any FA from EB2ROW" - do you consider EB2ROW quota before FB spillover or adjusted figure with FB spillover?gc_soon,

I can't speak for vizcard, but I am basing that on the revised allocation to EB2-WW of 38.9k. If they only had the normal 34.4k, they would exceed it comfortably.

[natvyas]

Spec - Is there any data out there which suggests that EB1 consumption is equal to or more than last year? In essence what I'm asking is if you are holding your predictions/calculations on page 1?



Regards
Nat

[Spectator]

Spec - Is there any data out there which suggests that EB1 is equal to or more than last year? In essence what I'm asking is if you are holding your predictions/calculations on page 1?

Regards
NatNat,

One of the difficulties is that there is a complete absence of any data about EB1, other than Trackitt.

As I said in a post earlier today, I am finding it very difficult to say exactly what EB1 is doing.

Depending on how the calculation is done, I would put the projected number in the 34-39k range. The difference has a big impact.

My page one figures are based on a figure of 35k for EB1 and EB2-WW using their full allocation, but no more.

In general, my prediction would be getting slightly worse, rather than better, but I would like to see a couple more months data.

I would describe my thoughts as "quite fluid" at the moment. :)

I just hope people realize that. I did think the EB2-WW subject was worth discussing and it has generated a good conversation.

Roll on the next Demand Data and VB.

[justvisiting]

My thought, the controller is still within the quarterly limits or slightly exceeded. There is a possibility that more(% wise) EB2ROW registered in trackitt, due to retrogression last year. There is no way to quantify the weightage of that. Does that make sense?

I know of many people from EB2-ROW who got engaged with trackitt last year based on 1)Retrogression and 2)HR 3012.

[vizcard]

vizcard,
In your guess when you say "won't get any FA from EB2ROW" - do you consider EB2ROW quota before FB spillover or adjusted figure with FB spillover?


vizcard,

To be fair, at the moment, that is what I am expecting as well, though it is subject to change.

gc_soon,

I can't speak for vizcard, but I am basing that on the revised allocation to EB2-WW of 38.9k. If they only had the normal 34.4k, they would exceed it comfortably.

Spec -You are correct. I was assuming regular quota + FB extra.

[MATT2012]

At this point, we are getting into wait and watch mode. I would be happy to see atleast some guidance as part of the May visa bulletin, EB2-I is almost one year into retrogression.

[Vkkpnm]

So based on regular quota plus fb extra, what is the expected PD movement by fy2013?

[vizcard]

So based on regular quota plus fb extra, what is the expected PD movement by fy2013?

Go to page 1 where Q, Spec and others have (and update) their projections.

[qesehmk]

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[Vkkpnm]

Go to page 1 where Q, Spec and others have (and update) their projections.
So the prediction on page 1 still holds good after seeing no spillover from EB2 WW, and rather they may take some of EB1 spillover, and all other data that came up thereafter?

[suninphx]

This year to date = 9 months worth of approvals in 6 months.

6 months of year remains.

9 + 6 = 15

Overall, over 2 FY there are still 24 months of approvals in 24 months, just split asymmetrically.

The numbers pending are rolling numbers. As the old pending cases are approved, new ones take their place. There is no question of having zero pending cases, because that would require zero processing time.

USCIS have just processed the (artificially) higher number of pending cases that built up at the end of FY2012 and the beginning of FY2013 in much the same way as they processed large numbers of EB2-I cases last year.

Spectator,

I still dont get it. May be because I dont believe the 'realization' of demand will sustained as high as seen till date. Or may be I am hung up on your predictions that July 2009 PD wont be reached even in FY 2015 and hence unable to comprehend anything further :).

As always, thanks for all the numbers and detailed explainations.

[MATT2012]

Most of us have become more conservative as we approached half year point. There will be changes in predictions as we get more data. At this point, I do not think that EB1 Spillover is required for EB2WW to stay current.

So the prediction on page 1 still holds good after seeing no spillover from EB2 WW, and rather they may take some of EB1 spillover, and all other data that came up thereafter?

[MATT2012]

Just trying to add an example to specs explanation.
Let us assume that every month EB2WW demand is 10. So the demand for 3 months from 2012 fiscal(July, August, September) is 10+10+ 10 = 30. For the new fiscal there are 12 months(Ocotber to September) , 12 x 10= 120. So the total demand for this fiscal is 30+120= 150, considering the retrogression last year.

First six months of this fiscal will have 30+ 60 = 90, 30 from last fiscal and 60 form this fiscal. 90 divided by 9 months = 10, which is the monthly demand and 10 multiplied into 15 will give 150, which is the demand for this fiscal. The assumption is it took six months of this fiscal to absorb 3 months of retrogression.


Spectator,

I still dont get it. May be because I dont believe the 'realization' of demand will sustained as high as seen till date. Or may be I am hung up on your predictions of that July 2009 PD wont be reached even in FY 2015 and not able to comprehend anything further :).

As always, thanks for all the numbers and detailed explainations.

[mailmvr]

We see the prediction of Spec updated on first page as Feb/March 2008. Is it min,max for average date for EB2I?

[vizcard]

We see the prediction of Spec updated on first page as Feb/March 2008. Is it min,max for average date for EB2I?

I believe, and Spec - keep me honest, that is "min".

Reasoning is -
1. Everyone has been very conservative in the consumption assumptions. There is potential upside here.
2. Not everyone gets approved and hence dates move further in to the future.

I'd say March 2008 to June 2008 is realistic and up to Sept 2008 is stretch.

[bvsamrat]

But, if the monthly quota is only allotted for Eb2WW in each of month of the financial year 2013, then the all the outstanding cases of Jul/August/September -2012 got cleared in 1st month of FY2013 itself as it has been current afterwards and hence it would be normal demand only in later months and hence a good SO is expected from EB2WW.

Can this happen?


Just trying to add an example to specs explanation.
Let us assume that every month EB2WW demand is 10. So the demand for 3 months from 2012 fiscal(July, August, September) is 10+10+ 10 = 30. For the new fiscal there are 12 months(Ocotber to September) , 12 x 10= 120. So the total demand for this fiscal is 30+120= 150, considering the retrogression last year.

First six months of this fiscal will have 30+ 60 = 90, 30 from last fiscal and 60 form this fiscal. 90 divided by 9 months = 10, which is the monthly demand and 10 multiplied into 15 will give 150, which is the demand for this fiscal. The assumption is it took six months of this fiscal to absorb 3 months of retrogression.

[Spectator]

I believe, and Spec - keep me honest, that is "min".

Reasoning is -
1. Everyone has been very conservative in the consumption assumptions. There is potential upside here.
2. Not everyone gets approved and hence dates move further in to the future.

I'd say March 2008 to June 2008 is realistic and up to Sept 2008 is stretch.vizcard,

1. That is a mid point, based on there being potential upsides and downsides. Admittedly it does reflect a fairly conservative position.
2. I have assumed that not everyone gets approved.

At the moment, I think June 2008 might result from my high end figure. My low end figure is extremely unlikely, but not impossible.

[MATT2012]

March 2013 EB2 ROW approvals had roughly 20% representation of applications filed by October 2012. February 2013 approvals had roughly 33% representation of applications filed by October 2012. Hope I answered your question.

[Spectator]

But, if the monthly quota is only allotted for Eb2WW in each of month of the financial year 2013, then the all the outstanding cases of Jul/August/September -2012 got cleared in 1st month of FY2013 itself as it has been current afterwards and hence it would be normal demand only in later months and hence a good SO is expected from EB2WW.

Can this happen?For many people, they could only submit their I-485 in November 2012 when EB2-WW became Current again. It then took several months to adjudicate those cases.

Many people also seemed to anticipate retrogression (or acted quickly when the VB was published) and submitted their applications in June 2012. However, any with a 2012 PD had to wait until November 2012 at the earliest for them to be approved. It is likely that not all cases were even pre-adjudicated by that time.

All October 2012 approvals had to have a PD of 2011 or earlier.

Approvals for cases affected by retrogression have been spread over several months - in fact it was a legal impossibility to clear them in October 2012.

CO appears to have used under-use in other Categories to enable higher than normal EB2-WW approvals in the first two quarters. This seems to have enabled the approval of the increased backlog from retrogression plus the normal demand over the first six months of the year. Approvals dropped in December 2012, which suggests CO did not have sufficient visas available in Q1 to approve all the cases, and / or that insufficient cases submitted in November 2012 were ready to adjudicate.

[justvisiting]

Approvals dropped in December 2012, which suggests CO did not have sufficient visas available in Q1 to approve all the cases, and / or that insufficient cases submitted in November 2012 were ready to adjudicate.

I would suggest the second is true. The absolute minimum an I-485 can take is probably one month, considering that on avergae biometric appointments are being given out with a one month wait.

As an aside, USCIS hired more adjudicators earlier this FY expecting a lot of DACA applicants. It turned out that there haven;t been nearly as many applicants as expected. This may account for the faster-than-normal prcoessing times. It now seems they shipped a bunch of pending DACA applications from California and Vermont to Texas/Nebraska, so we should expect EB I-485 processing times to go back to a more norma 4-6 months rather than the 2-4 seen in Jan/Feb.

[jrkpsp]

Eb2i pd - 12/1/2012 ???

[vizcard]

Eb2i pd - 12/1/2012 ???

it depends

[Vkkpnm]

it depends

:-) :-) :-).

[geeaarpee]

This seems to be interesting - http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1213194823/rfe-issued/page/last_page

His PD is Nov'04 EB2-I. Got an RFE now on his I-485 when the dates are not current. Does it mean they are reviewing future cases and we may see some movement for EB2-I in the next (May) bulletin?

[veni001]

This seems to be interesting - http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1213194823/rfe-issued/page/last_page

His PD is Nov'04 EB2-I. Got an RFE now on his I-485 when the dates are not current. Does it mean they are reviewing future cases and we may see some movement for EB2-I in the next (May) bulletin?

May be or may not be. RFE can be issued any any stage of application review including pre-adjudication.

[geeaarpee]

I agree. One thing that doesn't make sense is there is a 4-6 months wait (processing) time for 485 applications that are current and I don't know how USCIS finds time to issue RFE on a case that is not current!

[vizcard]

I agree. One thing that doesn't make sense is there is a 4-6 months wait (processing) time for 485 applications and I don't know how USCIS finds time to issue RFE on a case that is not current!

I dont think its really 4-6 months like they publish. Last year they did quite a few within 2-3 months.

[Spectator]

I agree. One thing that doesn't make sense is there is a 4-6 months wait (processing) time for 485 applications and I don't know how USCIS finds time to issue RFE on a case that is not current!In the specific example you quoted, the OP said that their EB2-I-140 had recently been approved.

It could be, that when the A-file was updated, the IO noticed there was no written request to interfile the new EB2 I-140 with the existing I-485 and the RFE was issued to ask the person whether they wished to do so (when the PD becomes Current).

More generally, USCIS are quite aware that EB2-I dates are likely to move forward in the near future.

While pro-activity is not a term I generally associate with USCIS, it is entirely possible that they are pulling files likely to become Current and pre-processing them to the point of approval (including issuing any necessary RFE), rather than waiting for them to become actually Current to begin that process.

The IBIS checks have to be not more than 6 months old at the time of approval, so these have to be updated at some point, otherwise they will have no approvable cases.

USCIS work in mysterious ways - best just to accept that fact.

[Vkkpnm]

it depends


In the specific example you quoted, the OP said that their EB2-I-140 had recently been approved.

It could be, that when the A-file was updated, the IO noticed there was no written request to interfile the new EB2 I-140 with the existing I-485 and the RFE was issued to ask the person whether they wished to do so (when the PD becomes Current).

More generally, USCIS are quite aware that EB2-I dates are likely to move forward in the near future.

While pro-activity is not a term I generally associate with USCIS, it is entirely possible that they are pulling files likely to become Current and pre-processing them to the point of approval (including issuing any necessary RFE), rather than waiting for them to become actually Current to begin that process.

The IBIS checks have to be not more than 6 months old at the time of approval, so these have to be updated at some point, otherwise they will have no approvable cases.

USCIS work in mysterious ways - best just to accept that fact.

Perfect explanation. Again proactiveness sometime vary by the personnel handling the case. In this case, he may have acted proactively.

[civilengineer]

First of all, great site guys. Keep up the good work.
Now the question: EB-2I with PD June 19, 2008, what are the chances for filing I-485 this year? I have never been able to file so far due to being in EB-3I.
I know it could be on the border for FY 2013, but I am hoping to at least get EAD/AP and not too worried about GC right now. If I miss in FY 2013, is there a chance they will do pipeline building again early FY 2014?

[vizcard]

First of all, great site guys. Keep up the good work.
Now the question: EB-2I with PD June 19, 2008, what are the chances for filing I-485 this year? I have never been able to file so far due to being in EB-3I.
I know it could be on the border for FY 2013, but I am hoping to at least get EAD/AP and not too worried about GC right now. If I miss in FY 2013, is there a chance they will do pipeline building again early FY 2014?

You may slide in to file 485 this year. Keep your docs ready including affidavits, etc.

No chance they'll build pipeline (without CIR) in 2014.

[sbhagwat2000]

Just some random thoughts about various topics discussed recently -

1. Will EB2I retrogress in May ? CO had mentioned this in February . What are the chances of that happening now?

2. I looked at some Trackitt numbers for EB2 ROW. Except for FY 2009 all past year approvals for the same time period- oct to april have been in the 200-300 range and lower than FY 2013. For FY 2009 it was 444 and for the year ended at 774. The actual allocation that year was ~33000.

3. Just playing devils advocate - what if the last predictions provided by CO in feb were made taking into account the extra FB visas. If we consider that then some of our assumptions about SOFAD may be completely wrong. What if theres no need for EB5 cutoff cause of 11000 allocation rather than 9900. Its rather surprising that CO did not know that USCIS was going to provide info abt extra FB visas the next day.

thoughts comment?

[gc_soon]

1. Will EB2I retrogress in May ? CO had mentioned this in February . What are the chances of that happening now?

3. Just playing devils advocate - what if the last predictions provided by CO in feb were made taking into account the extra FB visas. If we consider that then some of our assumptions about SOFAD may be completely wrong. What if theres no need for EB5 cutoff cause of 11000 allocation rather than 9900. Its rather surprising that CO did not know that USCIS was going to provide info abt extra FB visas the next day.

This year was special for EB2-ROW in that there was a wave of applications that needed to be approved due to retrogression last year. Also trackitt as a site wasn't that active back then, so not sure about the accuracy of trackitt data.
Hope the SOFAD numbers predicted are not too far off.
CO did "fix" the demand data after the release of VB. So, I hope he wasn't aware of the FB numbers when the VB was released.
EB5 has some issues related to tenants' rent or something, that's delaying approvals. Not very sure about that.

[vizcard]

Just some random thoughts about various topics discussed recently -

1. Will EB2I retrogress in May ? CO had mentioned this in February . What are the chances of that happening now?

2. I looked at some Trackitt numbers for EB2 ROW. Except for FY 2009 all past year approvals for the same time period- oct to april have been in the 200-300 range and lower than FY 2013. For FY 2009 it was 444 and for the year ended at 774. The actual allocation that year was ~33000.

3. Just playing devils advocate - what if the last predictions provided by CO in feb were made taking into account the extra FB visas. If we consider that then some of our assumptions about SOFAD may be completely wrong. What if theres no need for EB5 cutoff cause of 11000 allocation rather than 9900. Its rather surprising that CO did not know that USCIS was going to provide info abt extra FB visas the next day.

thoughts comment?

1. Unlikely. But even if he does, it'll move ahead in July.
2. ~33k is the norm for EB2ROW. However, this year they are dealing with the backlog due to the retrogression from last year.
3. I don't think he knew about the FB extras. The indicator is the reissue of the demand data 2-3 days after the VB for that month with the additional visas.

I know it's a little nervewracking due to all the what-ifs and lack of info. But seriously just wait for a couple more months. Everyone will have much better line of sight.

[kd2008]

Demand Data for May bulletin out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

EB2C 6125
EB2I 42,625

[ChampU]

Changes for EB2-I

Jan 1st 2005 --> +50
Jan 1st 2006 --> +125 (Net +75)
Jan 1st 2007 --> +200 (Net +75)
Jan 1st 2008 --> +350 (Net +150)
Jan 1st 2009 --> +450 (Net +100)
Jan 1st 2010 --> +600 (Net + 150)

No major change expected in this bulletin.. Moving on to the next bulletin..

[vizcard]

Spec/ Q -
was there a month by month analysis of 2008 receipts vs approvals on trackitt? I expect the 2008 demand (in the demand data) to be skewed to the later half of the year due to the recession and approvals that already took place (I remember seeing a lot of people with RDs up to Jan 15, 2012 got approved). In other words, its not a flat 1500 per month. Its a curve increasing over time in 2008. Thoughts?

This will drive how far the dates move in to 2008.

[Spectator]

Spec/ Q -
was there a month by month analysis of 2008 receipts vs approvals on trackitt? I expect the 2008 demand (in the demand data) to be skewed to the later half of the year due to the recession and approvals that already took place (I remember seeing a lot of people with RDs up to Jan 15, 2012 got approved). In other words, its not a flat 1500 per month. Its a curve increasing over time in 2008. Thoughts?

This will drive how far the dates move in to 2008.vizcard,

Is this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012) the sort of analysis you were after?

[vizcard]

Spec/ Q -
was there a month by month analysis of 2008 receipts vs approvals on trackitt? I expect the 2008 demand (in the demand data) to be skewed to the later half of the year due to the recession and approvals that already took place (I remember seeing a lot of people with RDs up to Jan 15, 2012 got approved). In other words, its not a flat 1500 per month. Its a curve increasing over time in 2008. Thoughts?

This will drive how far the dates move in to 2008.

My predictions on where dates will reach based on available SOFAD

392

[vizcard]

vizcard,

Is this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012) the sort of analysis you were after?

I was looking for monthly receipts/ approvals by Receipt Date Month as opposed to VB month. But nevermind. I found that on Trackitt.

[isantem]

Is a typo in the EB3 PH . I think and hope that the 150 should be at EB3ROW :)
If not that means that more than 4000 new application have been filed for EB3ROW before July 2007. :(

[justvisiting]

The EB-3-ROW numbers must be wrong. You just don;t see such a huge jump without seeing the same jump in The EB-3-M numbers.

[gc_soon]

How are the number of cases after Sep 2004 increasing with every DD?
It's hard to imagine that these are old cases(few hundreds every month) with 485 filed last year that are being pre-adjucated now.
Is it possible that CO is including the porting numbers as well? (based on interfiling requests received). I understand that interfiling can't be done when cases are not current, but recieving an interfiling
request will help CO with porting demand.


Changes for EB2-I

Jan 1st 2005 --> +50
Jan 1st 2006 --> +125 (Net +75)
Jan 1st 2007 --> +200 (Net +75)
Jan 1st 2008 --> +350 (Net +150)
Jan 1st 2009 --> +450 (Net +100)
Jan 1st 2010 --> +600 (Net + 150)

No major change expected in this bulletin.. Moving on to the next bulletin..

[Spectator]

The EB-3-ROW numbers must be wrong. You just don;t see such a huge jump without seeing the same jump in The EB-3-M numbers.justvisiting,

I don't understand them either. A figure of 1,825 rather than 7,825 would have made sense.

The only possible reason would be a huge number of CP cases beyond the current COD suddenly becoming Documentarily Qualified. I don't really believe that.

The EB3-Philippines figures ARE just plain incorrect. Prior to Jan 1, 2007 is 3,700. The number prior to Jan 1 , 2012 is shown as 150, which is impossible.

I do wish they would take a little more care checking the figures before publishing them.

[MATT2012]

Spec,

It looks like EB3-P numbers got mixed up with EB3-all other countries.

MATT

justvisiting,

I don't understand them either. A figure of 1,825 rather than 7,825 would have made sense.

The only possible reason would be a huge number of CP cases beyond the current COD suddenly becoming Documentarily Qualified. I don't really believe that.

The EB3-Philippines figures ARE just plain incorrect. Prior to Jan 1, 2007 is 3,700. The number prior to Jan 1 , 2012 is shown as 150, which is impossible.

I do wish they would take a little more care checking the figures before publishing them.

[erikbond101]

How can demand data increase in EB2I, all belong to preadjudicated cases. So that means even after one year, pre-2005 cases are getting preadjudicated in the tune of 50 cases per month. In past 5 months demand data has increased by 50, 0, 25, 75 and 50 for pre-2005 cases.

Trackitt data does not confirm this information that more than a year ported-pending I-485 cases have been approved very recently. It may be possible that demand data includes current I-485 also for pre-Oct 2004. Then it is a worrying sign that cutoff date may retrogress further.

If these pre-2005 are not all pre-adjudicated numbers then it means same is also not true for pre-2008 demand data numbers.

[kd2008]

Spec,

It looks like EB3-P numbers got mixed up with EB3-all other countries.

MATT

Yup, I agree. If you switch EB3-P and EB3-ROW for Jan 2012 row, you get close to reality. I am expecting a strong movement forward for EB3-ROW in upcoming bulletin.

[Caramail]

Kd2008,
In case CO actually used these published numbers, what do you thing the cut off date for EB3 ROW will be? My PD is 07/15 and I hope I will be current.
Thanks.

[Spectator]

Yup, I agree. If you switch EB3-P and EB3-ROW for Jan 2012 row, you get close to reality. I am expecting a strong movement forward for EB3-ROW in upcoming bulletin.kd,

I am also expecting considerable movement for EB3-ROW in the forthcoming VB.

I'm not convinced the number swap between EB3-ROW and EB3-P works entirely.

For EB3-ROW to have reduced to 150 would mean that they used 3,400 from the Demand last month. That's more than double normal usage, which isn't borne out by Trackitt EB3-ROW approval numbers.

EB3-P numbers post 2006 would increase 1,825 or about 80% compared to the previous month. Given the high CP % for EB3-P that's not impossible, but still seems unlikely at this stage, given how slowly they are currently moving.

[MATT2012]

KD/Spec,
Let me explain what I meant, there were 6275 pending EB3-P cases as per April Demand data. 225 visa's issued. So the total demand will be 6050.In the May demand data for EB3-other countries there is a demand of 7825. 7825 - 6050 = 1775. So 1775 is the possible demand for EB3-ROW.

kd,

I am also expecting considerable movement for EB3-ROW in the forthcoming VB.

I'm not convinced the number swap between EB3-ROW and EB3-P works entirely.

For EB3-ROW to have reduced to 150 would mean that they used 3,400 from the Demand last month. That's more than double normal usage, which isn't borne out by Trackitt EB3-ROW approval numbers.

EB3-P numbers post 2006 would increase 1,825 or about 80% compared to the previous month. Given the high CP % for EB3-P that's not impossible, but still seems unlikely at this stage, given how slowly they are currently moving.

[Spectator]

KD/Spec,
Let me explain what I meant, there were 6275 pending EB3-P cases as per April Demand data. 225 visa's issued. So the total demand will be 6050.In the May demand data for EB3-other countries there is a demand of 7825. 7825 - 6050 = 1775. So 1775 is the possible demand for EB3-ROW.Matt,

Thank you for the explanation.

I agree that EB3-P should be about 6k and EB2-All Other Countries should be about 2k.

Thinking about it further in the way you have framed it, I think the 150 was copied from EB3-M by mistake and suspect that (since the PDF was created from Excel 2007) that the number for EB3-All Other Countries may be derived from a formula

i.e. EB3-All Other Countries = EB3(Total) minus EB3-C minus EB3-I minus EB3-M minus EB3-P

So the mistaken low figure in EB3-P caused EB3-All Other Countries to increase.

That assumes that the EB3(Total) figure of 51,200 is correct.

If EB3-P had no increase in 2007 cases, it would be 6,000 and that would make EB3-All Other Countries 1,975.

I think that is exactly what you are saying as well, albeit using very slightly different numbers. In any case, they are close enough to make no difference.

[MATT2012]

That brings another question, if our analysis is correct, nobody verifies the demand data before publishing?!!


Matt,

Thank you for the explanation.

I agree that EB3-P should be about 6k and EB2-All Other Countries should be about 2k.

Thinking about it further in the way you have framed it, I think the 150 was copied from EB3-M by mistake and suspect that (since the PDF was created from Excel 2007) that the number for EB3-All Other Countries is actually a formula

i.e. EB3-All Other Countries = EB3(Total) minus EB3-C minus EB3-I minus EB3-M minus EB3-P

So the mistaken low figure in EB3-P caused EB3-All Other Countries to increase.

That assumes that the EB3(Total) figure of 51,200 is correct.

If EB3-P had no increase in 2007 cases, it would be 6,000 and that would make EB3-All Other Countries 1,975.

I think that is exactly what you are saying as well, albeit using very slightly different numbers. In any case, they are close enough to make no difference.

[Spectator]

The Demand Data (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf) has been revised with updated figures.

EB3-P now shows 5,975 and EB3-All Other Countries shows 2,000

[geterdone]

Is there any way we can say most of the 485 applications filed in Feb and March of 2012 has been pre-adjudicated from the DD?


The Demand Data (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf) has been revised with updated figures.

EB3-P now shows 5,975 and EB3-All Other Countries shows 2,000

[isantem]

The Demand Data (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf) has been revised with updated figures.

EB3-P now shows 5,975 and EB3-All Other Countries shows 2,000

With 2000 for EB3-ROW is bellow montly allocation, so I hope it will follow EB2-I pattern and move 6 months per VB for a couple of VBs.

[skpanda]

A friend of mine has the same situation.

PD March 2005. Got an RFE for 485 in Feb 2013. He responded. Now waiting for dates to move.




This seems to be interesting - http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1213194823/rfe-issued/page/last_page

His PD is Nov'04 EB2-I. Got an RFE now on his I-485 when the dates are not current. Does it mean they are reviewing future cases and we may see some movement for EB2-I in the next (May) bulletin?

[Spectator]

Is there any way we can say most of the 485 applications filed in Feb and March of 2012 has been pre-adjudicated from the DD?geterdone,

I'm sure we can say most of those cases have been pre-adjudicated now. The numbers aren't changing very much now.

I don't think we can ever say all of them have been pre-adjudicated and pre-adjudication doesn't mean a RFE can't be raised in the future.

[bvsamrat]

If the porters interfiling with PD after 2005 are not counted in DD-- Then Eb2-I had it.
I can not say glass is half full or half empty. There would be no glass at all, unless something happens

With the trend, EB2-I progression would be to have 2 years gap with EB3-I (2 years gap is the driving force and time taken for PERM and new I-140).

Only a few outsiders might sneak in in last quarter every year

[MATT2012]

Thanks Spec for updating, Happy to see the spread sheet error is rectified. Hopefully the NEWS cheered up our EB3 ROW folks
.
The Demand Data (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf) has been revised with updated figures.

EB3-P now shows 5,975 and EB3-All Other Countries shows 2,000

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for updating, Happy to see the spread sheet error is rectified. Hopefully the NEWS cheered up our EB3 ROW folks
.Matt,

They sound less freaked out on Trackitt.

The way I see it, May is the last month that CO can move the dates forward and reasonably expect new AOS cases to be adjudicated before year end.

At the end of March, EB3-ROW appear to have used about 13k and that will rise to 15-16k by the end of April. The movements to date might eventually result in a further 2k Demand.

EB3-ROW can reasonably expect at least 26k this year.

That leaves 8-9k Demand to generate for visas available in FY2013.

2k visas has represented about 6 weeks movement in the COD to date, but that may drop to only 4 weeks if the density is high around July 2007 and beyond.

9k Demand would need 6-9 months forward movement to cover the gap, if the assumption was that all cases generated would be approved, so that is the bare minimum required.

If this doesn't happen, CO still has the possibility of moving the dates a long way forward later and using the faster CP cases to fulfill demand, but they would only represent 20% (being very generous).

The joker in the pack is assuming that DOS/USCIS are reporting all the numbers.

If visas are wasted, EB3-P are sitting there ready to use any until they hit their overall 7% limit, after which EB3-I could use them.

I hope that doesn't happen, because it is an entirely avoidable scenario.

Whether CO does that or not is an entirely different question - he has not previously shown any particular love for EB3-ROW.

[MATT2012]

Yeah, EB3-ROW seems less bothered, or they are anxiously waiting for VB to be out.

I do think that USICS possibly may have some pending inventory, yet to adjudicate. So not in demand.

Considering the general processing timelines for new I-485, 3-4 months. May is the best bet that controller have, June being the latest. As this oppurtunity is only presented to him once in few years the movement may not have logic. He may want to build his demand for the next couple of years. He will have four bulletins to play his strategy starting May.
Yes, to avoid visa wastage, he should move atleast 9 months, May visa bulletin may give us first hints about his thought process.

[geeaarpee]

A friend of mine has the same situation.

PD March 2005. Got an RFE for 485 in Feb 2013. He responded. Now waiting for dates to move.

Did he recently port to EB2? If yes, when and do you have more details like EB3 to EB2 same company, future employment, RFE Reason, etc?

BTW, one more... in this case his porting was done almost a year ago...

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1215960263/lud-on-my-i-485-case-any-inputs/page/last_page

[skpanda]

Ported last year to EB2. 140 was approved some 6 months ago.
EB3 to EB2 - Same company.



Did he recently port to EB2? If yes, when and do you have more details like EB3 to EB2 same company, future employment, RFE Reason, etc?

BTW, one more... in this case his porting was done almost a year ago...

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1215960263/lud-on-my-i-485-case-any-inputs/page/last_page

[natvyas]

The June VB will be interesting since its the end of 3rd quarter and I expect to read CO's commentary in it.

[qesehmk]

Not sure if anybody has shared this yet .... but tomorrow there is an immigration rally in Washington DC.

http://region1.uaw.org/local400/index.cfm?action=article&articleID=85ed641f-66fd-4da5-a099-85ac01f617d8

[redsox2009]

May Visa Bulletin Out


Link is not updated, but over the phone, Visa Bulletin is updated.

EB2 China 15 May 08
EB2 India 1 Sept 04 NO Change

EB3 India 22 Dec 02

[tatikonda]

May Visa Bulletin Out


Link is not updated, but over the phone, Visa Bulletin is updated.

EB2 China 15 May 08
EB2 India 1 Sept 04 NO Change

EB3 India 22 Dec 02

I can confirm that, this is correct information..
I called in to (202) 663-1541 Number.

I am disappointed !!

[Transformer]

Eb3row dec 07

[kd2008]

I can confirm that, this is correct information..
I called in to (202) 663-1541 Number.

I am disappointed !!

Actually, I am not. It seems CO has a strategy mapped out and is going to follow that until CIR is enacted into law. This is better than last year's schizophrenic movement for EB2I&C. He has decided that last quarter is for big movements and he is sticking to it.

EB3 ROW to Dec 07 is a cautious move to gauge demand. A larger movement for EB3 ROW should be expected next month.

[Spectator]

A summary for all groups in EB2 & EB3.

EB2

China - 15MAY08
India - 01SEP04
Mexico - C
Philippines - C
WW - C

EB3

China - 01DEC07
India - 22DEC02
Mexico - 01DEC07
Philippines - 15SEP06
WW - 01DEC07

China has now caught up with WW.

[pdmay2008]

A summary for all groups in EB2 & EB3.

EB2

China - 15MAY08
India - 01SEP04
Mexico - C
Philippines - C
WW - C

EB3

China - 01DEC07
India - 22DEC02
Mexico - 01DEC07
Philippines - 15SEP06
WW - 01DEC07

China has now caught up with WW.

Is there any indication based on China EB2 COD 15 May 2008. When Spill over gets applied CO tries to make China and India to have same date right? In that case EB2-I should atleaset reach 15 May 2008 or he has to move China date back.

[imdeng]

At least something is moving! It would be interesting to see what kind of density appears in EB3-C/M/ROW post 07/07.

For EB2I, my default expectation is that it will catch up with EB2C by the end of the FY - so the new EB2I target is now 15MAY2008. Not bad. Went up by a month and half.

For folks disappointed with no movement in EB2I, I offer what I tell myself. As long as EB1/EB2-M/P/ROW is C, EB2I is accumulating supply - its just not showing up in the VB. The longer CO waits to uncover this accumulated supply of visas, the faster it will move when he does so.


A summary for all groups in EB2 & EB3.

EB2

China - 15MAY08
India - 01SEP04
Mexico - C
Philippines - C
WW - C

EB3

China - 01DEC07
India - 22DEC02
Mexico - 01DEC07
Philippines - 15SEP06
WW - 01DEC07

China has now caught up with WW.

[imdeng]

He does not have to move EB2C back if EB2I does not catch up with it by the end of the FY. EB2C movement so far has entirely been through normal quota - and movement of EB2I has nothing to do with it.

Is there any indication based on China EB2 COD 15 May 2008. When Spill over gets applied CO tries to make China and India to have same date right? In that case EB2-I should atleaset reach 15 May 2008 or he has to move China date back.

[pdmay2008]

He does not have to move EB2C back if EB2I does not catch up with it by the end of the FY. EB2C movement so far has entirely been through normal quota - and movement of EB2I has nothing to do with it.

My Point is.. do we have any history that shows EB2-I did not catch up EB2-C during spill over time.

[helooo]

Is there any indication based on China EB2 COD 15 May 2008. When Spill over gets applied CO tries to make China and India to have same date right? In that case EB2-I should atleaset reach 15 May 2008 or he has to move China date back.

Based on past two Bulletins EB2C has moved one and half month.If this keeps on going this way EB2C will be Jul01,2008 before the last quarter.I think thats where EB2I can be.Just guess....Gurus know better.

[drugoi]

Actually, I am not. It seems CO has a strategy mapped out and is going to follow that until CIR is enacted into law. This is better than last year's schizophrenic movement for EB2I&C. He has decided that last quarter is for big movements and he is sticking to it.

EB3 ROW to Dec 07 is a cautious move to gauge demand. A larger movement for EB3 ROW should be expected next month.

I think that it will be only one or two additional jumps for EB3ROW before CO stop movements and starts to retrogress.
VO should be able to get some visibility in August for people with PD prior to July 07. (4 moths from today). I do think it's almost enough to fill entire FY allocation and not wast any visas.
But CO must to have some visibility beyond September and forward and this is why he moved PD to December 07 now and probably will move it even to summer 08.
If USCIS will work slow and visibility will not be good in August we may see PD hits end of 08.

[vizcard]

Its just weird that "lower skilled" EB3ROWs get GCs before "higher skilled" EB2Is. Does anyone else think that that's f-ed up?

[isantem]

I think that it will be only one or two additional jumps for EB3ROW before CO stop movements and starts to retrogress.
VO should be able to get some visibility in August for people with PD prior to July 07. (4 moths from today). I do think it's almost enough to fill entire FY allocation and not wast any visas.
But CO must to have some visibility beyond September and forward and this is why he moved PD to December 07 now and probably will move it even to summer 08.
If USCIS will work slow and visibility will not be good in August we may see PD hits end of 08.

He does not want to do this every year so probably will build up the pipe line for next fiscal year also. I expect a total of approximately 2 year movement in the next 2-3 VB. I would say early to mid 2009. That what he did for EB2I and probably will do for EB3ROW also.

[geeaarpee]

Its just weird that "lower skilled" EB3ROWs get GCs before "higher skilled" EB2Is. Does anyone else think that that's f-ed up?

vizcard -how do you measure the word "Skill" - only way it is measured by USCIS is by years of experience (note - education can be substituted by experience in this country), if thats the case how come EB3 lags more than 5 yrs behind EB2?

As Spec said sometime back, USCIS operates weird sometimes and we have to just accept the weirdness (the laws that governs USCIS itself is weird, especially in this case and CIR is just gonna bring more weirdness)

[Spectator]

Is there any indication based on China EB2 COD 15 May 2008. When Spill over gets applied CO tries to make China and India to have same date right? In that case EB2-I should atleaset reach 15 May 2008 or he has to move China date back.


My Point is.. do we have any history that shows EB2-I did not catch up EB2-C during spill over time.pdmay2008,

It is entirely likely that EB2-C will not received any spillover this year and will only have their guaranteed allocation of visas. In fact, I would say it is a certainty.

If EB2-C can move to a later Cut Off Date using only their initial allocation than EB2-I can with their initial allocation plus all available spillover, then their will be a gap in the Cut Off Dates between EB2-C and Eb2-I.

EB2-C can move to late 2008 based on the Demand Data and number of visas available to them. That date is likely later than EB2-I can achieve, even with the most optimistic scenario.

Such a situation has happened for a while previously in FY2011. CO explained it in the May 2011 VB.


Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)

INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences.

Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. Since under INA Section 203(e) such numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of chargeability, greater number use by one country would indicate greater demand by applicants from that country with earlier priority dates.

Based on amount and priority dates of pending demand and year-to-date number use, a different cut-off date could be applied to each oversubscribed country, for the purpose of assuring that the maximum amount of available numbers will be used.

Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit.

For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.


In the May 2011 VB, EB2-I (who were using spillover visas) had a Cut Off date of 01JUL06.

EB2-C (who were just using their initial allocation) had a Cut Off Date of 01AUG06 for the reasons stated above.

[isantem]

Its just weird that "lower skilled" EB3ROWs get GCs before "higher skilled" EB2Is. Does anyone else think that that's f-ed up?


At this point they will get just maybe EAD as EB2I did last year. This country needs doctors, researchers, investors, engineers, agricultors, etc and not just IT "high skilled" EB2I. That is why we have a pool of visa numbers broked up in diffrent categories and not a big pool for everybody.

[qesehmk]

This is utter travesty Vizcard. this is a distortion created in immigration by country quota. Now EB3ROW have been moving to EB2ROW just like EB3ICs have been doing and so now EB2 is going to become clogged up. It's surprising how fast EB3ROW has moved (2 years so far this year).
Its just weird that "lower skilled" EB3ROWs get GCs before "higher skilled" EB2Is. Does anyone else think that that's f-ed up?

[pdmay2008]

pdmay2008,

It is entirely likely that EB2-C will not received any spillover this year and will only have their guaranteed allocation of visas. In fact, I would say it is a certainty.

If EB2-C can move to a later Cut Off Date using only their initial allocation than EB2-I can with their initial allocation plus all available spillover, then their will be a gap in the Cut Off Dates between EB2-C and Eb2-I.

EB2-C can move to late 2008 based on the Demand Data and number of visas available to them. That date is likely later than EB2-I can achieve, even with the most optimistic scenario.

Such a situation has happened for a while previously in FY2011. CO explained it in the May 2011 VB.



In the May 2011 VB, EB2-I (who were using spillover visas) had a Cut Off date of 01JUL06.

EB2-C (who were just using their initial allocation) had a Cut Off Date of 01AUG06 for the reasons stated above.

That explains it.. Good to know CO was using spill over in May 2011, even though it was not spill over quarter.

[Spectator]

It's surprising how fast EB3ROW has moved (2 years so far this year).Q,

I'm not sure how you've arrived at that figure.

EB3-ROW finished last year at 01OCT06, so the movement through May is little more than year.

EB3-C has moved 2 years, but that seems to be due to very low demand.

[kd2008]

Q,

I'm not sure how you've arrived at that figure.

EB3-ROW finished last year at 01OCT06, so the movement through May is little more than year.

EB3-C has moved 2 years, but that seems to be due to very low demand.

Spec, Now that we know what path CO has opted for EB3 ROW movement, what is your preliminary estimate of the movement in next quarter?

I am sure he has a baseline estimate of certain number of CP cases that are in the bag, some estimate of USCIS processing efficiency, and some estimate of pipeline build up.

[Kanmani]

That explains it.. Good to know CO was using spill over in May 2011, even though it was not spill over quarter.

That was happened during the implementation of Kazarian case ruling for the first time to EB1 cases . Extra 12000 visas were fallen down from EB1 to Eb2 as announced in April 2011.

[chengisk]

FYI:

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5927.html

[Spectator]

Spec, Now that we know what path CO has opted for EB3 ROW movement, what is your preliminary estimate of the movement in next quarter?

I am sure he has a baseline estimate of certain number of CP cases that are in the bag, some estimate of USCIS processing efficiency, and some estimate of pipeline build up.If EB3-ROW demand is high post July 2007 then the movement might be enough. If it is similar to current demand, there is a risk of wasting ROW visas.

I assume your question relates to EB2-I movement in Q4.

My personal opinion is that we won't see one large jump, but that it will be staggered (either 2 or 3 stages). That is what has happened previously.

That gives CO a little longer to judge use in other Categories and other Countries within EB2.

If it were a 3 stage movement something like

Jul 2013 - 01JAN07 (clear out porting cases)
Aug 2013 - 01JAN08 (clear out pre 2008 cases)
Sep 2013 - Final date depending on numbers available

If it were a 2 stage movement something like

Jul 2013 - 01JAN08 (clear out all porting & pre 2008 cases)
Aug 2013 - 01JAN08 (repeat to give maximum time)
Sep 2013 - Final date depending on numbers available

In both cases, the August 2012 date needs to be a "safe" date which cannot lead to overuse.

Depending on what (by that time) CO thinks is "safe" the dates above would change accordingly.

The advantage of a 2 stage approach is that by early August (when he sets the September VB) CO might have slightly better information with which to set the COD if porting cases are taking longer to complete.

[Spectator]

From the VB


D. EMPLOYMENT THIRD PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY

The Employment-based Third preference category cut-off date for most countries has advanced significantly. This has been done in an attempt to generate demand so that the annual numerical limits may be fully utilized, and such movements may continue for the next few months. The rapid movement of cut-off dates is often followed months later by a dramatic increase in demand for numbers. Once such demand begins to materialize the cut-off date movements will begin to slow or stop.

My emphasis.

It looks like EB3-WW will advance considerably over the next few months.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

From the VB



My emphasis.

It lloks like EB3-WW will advance considerably over the next few months.

Gurus,
Any updates to the first page predictions based on May VB?

[gc_soon]

Looks like CO doesn't learn from his previous mistakes. CO wants to fill his pipeline, so he can get the demand numbers that will help his future predictions. Filling pipeline regularly instead of with massive movements, will help in granting GCs in order of PD, instead of lottery like what happened with EB2I last year.
I suspect this time it will be lottery for EB3-ROW.



From the VB



My emphasis.

It looks like EB3-WW will advance considerably over the next few months.

[TeddyKoochu]

Except for India and Philippines the Jul 2007 barrier has been broken for EB3 and fresh intake has started. Great news for all those who were waiting to file for 485 all these years.

[gc_soon]

Not to nitpick, but why did CO say, the movement will be in 4-6 weeks for 3rd Quarter for EB3 ROW in the comments section in March 2013 VB
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5885.html

Employment Third:
Worldwide: Four to six weeks

Does that mean he wasn't sure when he was going to move to generate demand at that time?

[tatikonda]

From the VB



My emphasis.

It looks like EB3-WW will advance considerably over the next few months.

Spec and other Gurus,

Pardon my ignorance.
I thought visa numbers are allocated by PD in each category.
if EB3 visa are available, why CO is moving EB3-WW dates instead of EB3-I.

isn’t it, supposed to be based on PD ?. Am I missing something.
I appreciate your response.

Thank You
Tatikonda

[gc_soon]

From the VB

Once such demand begins to materialize the cut-off date movements will begin to slow or stop.

My emphasis.

It looks like EB3-WW will advance considerably over the next few months.

Also interesting is that CO didnt mention retrogression (only slow or stop). He did keep mentioning retrogression as a distinct possibility for EB2I when he wanted to generate demand last FY. Maybe Im reading too much between the lines.

[geeaarpee]

From the VB



My emphasis.

It looks like EB3-WW will advance considerably over the next few months.

Spec,

Can we conclude that the low demand in EB-3 WW and other chargeability areas are due to Porting?

[justvisiting]

EB3-C is very close to EB2-C. It's feasible that EB3-C may actually reach a better priority date than EB2-C. Thsi actually has happened in the family-based categories before. I can'tt hink of anything in the INA that woudl stopp the Visa Office from doing so.

[Spectator]

Looks like CO doesn't learn from his previous mistakes. CO wants to fill his pipeline, so he can get the demand numbers that will help his future predictions. Filling pipeline regularly instead of with massive movements, will help in granting GCs in order of PD, instead of lottery like what happened with EB2I last year.
I suspect this time it will be lottery for EB3-ROW.gc_soon,

That's a bit harsh. I think he has learnt from last year.

The EB2-I problem was caused by leaving the COD at too late a date for too long. To be fair, that was due to USCIS outright lying about demand - they wanted the dates to move even further in May 2012.

Had the EB2-I Cut Off Date been retrogressed in the February/March 2012 VB virtually none of the problems would have arisen.

Since EB3-ROW May 2013 applications are unlikely to be adjudicated until August (3 months) at the earliest, CO appears to be able to move the dates forward for a couple more VBs.

As long as he retrogresses in the August VB at the latest, then no very late AOS PD are likely to be approved. Consular Processed cases are another matter, but he probably needs some of those to reach the number of visas available to EB3-ROW.

[Spectator]

Spec and other Gurus,

Pardon my ignorance.
I thought visa numbers are allocated by PD in each category.
if EB3 visa are available, why CO is moving EB3-WW dates instead of EB3-I.

isn’t it, supposed to be based on PD ?. Am I missing something.
I appreciate your response.

Thank You
TatikondaTatikonda,

EB3-I only have an allocation of 3,163 visas, so EB3-I Cut Off Dates can only move based on that figure.

CO can use estimates of future demand when setting the Cut Off Dates. He knows there will be demand later this FY for EB3-ROW, once the new applications are adjudicated.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Can we conclude that the low demand in EB3 WW and other chargeability areas are due to Porting?I don't think there is particularly proven low demand from EB3-WW at this stage. There may be in future years beyond 2008.

The movement is solely necessitated by running out of cases submitted when the EB3-WW Cut Off Date was last Current, just as it was for EB2-I.

One of the reasons the Cut Off Dates need to move substantially is just so CO can gauge what AOS demand beyond July 2008 looks like in EB3 for China, Mexico and ROW.

[geeaarpee]

I don't think there is particularly proven low demand from EB3-WW at this stage. There may be in future years beyond 2008.

The movement is solely necessitated by running out of cases submitted when the EB3-WW Cut Off Date was last Current, just as it was for EB2-I.

One of the reasons the Cut Off Dates need to move substantially is just so CO can gauge what AOS demand beyond July 2008 looks like in EB3 for China, Mexico and ROW.

The Demand data has the demand beyond July 2008 right? - Do you mean the real demand after porting, etc?

[gc_soon]

As long as he retrogresses in the August VB at the latest, then no very late AOS PD are likely to be approved. Consular Processed cases are another matter, but he probably needs some of those to reach the number of visas available to EB3-ROW.

True. But since CO didn't mention retrogression, I thought dates might be open till end of FY and USCIS will approve the easy cases first without preference to PDs as long as dates are current. If dates retrogress after a couple of months, then that will ensure earlier PDs are given more chance and later PDs at least get EAD/AP.

[justvisiting]

The Demand data has the demand beyond July 2008 right? - Do you mean the real demand after porting, etc?

For EB3-ROW-M-C, there is only demand data until July 2007. No-one else has been able to file their I-485. There may be some demand data for CP cases, not sure how that works.

[qesehmk]

Spec I was looking at Oct 2011 VB that puts EB3ROW at Dec 2005. That's how I calculated 2 years. But even if you considers 2 years movement in 1.5 year in EB3 category it tells you that this is just not possible without EB3ROW porting.

Q,

I'm not sure how you've arrived at that figure.

EB3-ROW finished last year at 01OCT06, so the movement through May is little more than year.

EB3-C has moved 2 years, but that seems to be due to very low demand.

[Spectator]

The Demand data has the demand beyond July 2008 right? - Do you mean the real demand after porting, etc?The Demand Data basically contains no numbers for EB3 beyond July 2007.

No AOS case can ever have been submitted and pre-adjudicated and very few (if any) CP cases with a PD beyond July 2007 can have become "documentarily qualified" since NVC won't have sent out the packets previously.

Look at EB3-P. They had 38k CP cases at NVC in November 2012. The Demand Data showed about 7k at about the same time (and probably half of those are AOS cases). So about 3.5 -4k of those 38k were actually in the Demand Data.

I mentioned post 2008 because WW PERM didn't start declining substantially until then. 2009 was low for everybody due to the recession. After that many more people seem to be applying under EB2, so it is possible EB3 numbers are now much lower.

I don't think CO will reach the interesting dates this time round.

[gc_soon]

They had 38k CP cases at NVC in November 2012. The Demand Data showed about 7k at about the same time (and probably half of those are AOS cases). So about 3.5 -4k of those 38k were actually in the Demand Data.


Hi Spec,
Can you please provide a link which has the above stats. I'm wondering if there is a way to estimate demand for F2A category since those cases are CP and I'm guessing those should be in the doc as well?

[gc_soon]

Hi Spec,
Can you please provide a link which has the above stats. I'm wondering if there is a way to estimate demand for F2A category since those cases are CP and I'm guessing those should be in the doc as well?

To answer my own questions, is this the link you are looking at ?
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

gc_soon,

Yes, that the one.

Spec

[justvisiting]

To answer my own questions, is this the link you are looking at ?
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

The risk of EB3-ROW visas being wasted is not negligible. Would they spill over to EB3-I or EB3-P first?

[Spectator]

The risk of EB3-ROW visas being wasted is not negligible. Would they spill over to EB3-I or EB3-P first?EB3-P and EB3-M until they hit the overall 7% limit, then EB3-I.

EB3-M use is rather limited by sharing the same Cut Off date as EB3-ROW and probably won't be a factor.

Given that FB-P uses 7% then EB-P has about 11k total visas available across the 5 Categories. EB1-P, EB2-P, EB4-P and EB5-P might use 4.6k, leaving about 6.4k to EB3-P and still stay within the overall 7% limit. That needs to happen within not more than the EB3-WW Cut Off Date.

In practice, EB3-ROW numbers are reduced by that factor.

In theory, EB3-ROW has 32.8k visas but that would probably be reduced to about 29.5k by EB3-P use.

If the above figures were correct, and if EB3-ROW use was less than 29.5k, then the spare visas would be available for EB3-I to use.

[vizcard]

vizcard -how do you measure the word "Skill" - only way it is measured by USCIS is by years of experience (note - education can be substituted by experience in this country), if thats the case how come EB3 lags more than 5 yrs behind EB2?

As Spec said sometime back, USCIS operates weird sometimes and we have to just accept the weirdness (the laws that governs USCIS itself is weird, especially in this case and CIR is just gonna bring more weirdness)

Whichever way the USCIS defines it, there is a reason there is a classification / prioritization. There should never be a situation where a lower classification gets priority over a higher classification. As for the experience/education bit, I challenge that assertion. An EB2 with 10-15 yrs experience will NOT get approved as an EB1 (in 99% cases).



At this point they will get just maybe EAD as EB2I did last year. This country needs doctors, researchers, investors, engineers, agricultors, etc and not just IT "high skilled" EB2I. That is why we have a pool of visa numbers broked up in diffrent categories and not a big pool for everybody.

I'm not sure what your comment about doctors, researchers, etc. implies. The reason there are categories is so that the theoretical needs get met in order of priority. Therefore a lower priority shouldnt get ahead of a higher priority under any circumstances.

[geeaarpee]

Whichever way the USCIS defines it, there is a reason there is a classification / prioritization. There should never be a situation where a lower classification gets priority over a higher classification. As for the experience/education bit, I challenge that assertion. An EB2 with 10-15 yrs experience will NOT get approved as an EB1 (in 99% cases).

EB1 is a totally different animal, the terms for EB1 is so vague and again it goes back to the weird laws governing that category. For instance, US MBA is not part of STEM but a Multi-National manager is part of EB (I recently posted this in the CIR section too). So it all goes back to the WEIRDNESS!

Earlier, I was talking specifically about EB2 and EB3.

[geeaarpee]

The Demand Data basically contains no numbers for EB3 beyond July 2007.

No AOS case can ever have been submitted and pre-adjudicated and very few (if any) CP cases with a PD beyond July 2007 can have become "documentarily qualified" since NVC won't have sent out the packets previously.

Look at EB3-P. They had 38k CP cases at NVC in November 2012. The Demand Data showed about 7k at about the same time (and probably half of those are AOS cases). So about 3.5 -4k of those 38k were actually in the Demand Data.

I mentioned post 2008 because WW PERM didn't start declining substantially until then. 2009 was low for everybody due to the recession. After that many more people seem to be applying under EB2, so it is possible EB3 numbers are now much lower.

I don't think CO will reach the interesting dates this time round.

Exactly Spec! Don't you think there should be a better way for CO to know what the demand should be instead of him moving the dates and even that won't be exact #s in a year or two as more and more people will either port or leave the country or get married outside the country and come back with more dependents. Don't you think CO is repeating his mistakes again? All these causes USCIS to prick the low hanging fruits as it approaches the end of the fiscal. I'm not speaking "FOR" USCIS here as they are the culprits first place - by not providing the data needed for CO to do a better job. Either CO should be part of USCIS or USCIS should take over the visa # allocation process (I know it causes other issues but the current issue is far worse than what we are facing right now with this absurd date movements)

[gc_soon]

Exactly Spec! Don't you think there should be a better way for CO to know what the demand should be instead of him moving the dates and even that won't be exact #s in a year or two as more and more people will either port or leave the country or get married outside the country and come back with more dependents. Don't you think CO is repeating his mistakes again? All these causes USCIS to prick the low hanging fruits as it approaches the end of the fiscal. I'm not speaking "FOR" USCIS here as they are the culprits first place - by not providing the data needed for CO to do a better job. Either CO should be part of USCIS or USCIS should take over the visa # allocation process (I know it causes other issues but the current issue is far worse than what we are facing right now with this absurd date movements)
CO could atleast look at 485 inventory for some signal. Last year the 485 pending inventory showed big numbers for EB2-I, but CO didnt seem to look at it but just the demand data and say "extremely low demand". CO also gave false hopes that effort will be made to move dates back to May 2010, only to keeo dates frozen at Sep 2004 for long time.
In this day and age, it's just unimaginable that an idea about demand can not be obtained without moving dates erratically. Just USCIS and DOS should make effort to track and report certain things. But unfortunately such effort may not be a priority, as long as DOS doesnt waste visa numbers which seems to be their priority. End of rant.

[Spectator]

Exactly Spec! Don't you think there should be a better way for CO to know what the demand should be instead of him moving the dates and even that won't be exact #s in a year or two as more and more people will either port or leave the country or get married outside the country and come back with more dependents. Don't you think CO is repeating his mistakes again? All these causes USCIS to prick the low hanging fruits as it approaches the end of the fiscal. I'm not speaking "FOR" USCIS here as they are the culprits first place - by not providing the data needed for CO to do a better job. Either CO should be part of USCIS or USCIS should take over the visa # allocation process (I know it causes other issues but the current issue is far worse than what we are facing right now with this absurd date movements)I think you said it yourself - USCIS need to provide better information to DOS.

It is entirely within USCIS capability (or should I say should be) to provide the numbers from approved I-140 by Category, Country of Chargeability and PD (in the same way as DOS compile it for CP cases once USCIS send the approved I-140 or I-130 to NVC).

DOS would then have very good visibility of likely future demand (including many of the dependents) without having to force the issue by moving Cut Off Dates forward to force USCIS to adjudicate I-485 cases.

USCIS have consistently shown an unwillingness to compile the information required and requested by DOS.

USCIS were essentially forced to compile and publish the Inventory after the events of July 2007. I took them 2 years to do so. It also forced them to actually start pre-adjudicating more cases.

I can't think of a worse agency to run the visa allocation system than USCIS (at one time, DOL would have been pretty close). They can't even coordinate over a few Service Centres and Field Offices in the same Country, let alone with Consular Posts around the World.

The predecessor to USCIS lost the battle as to who controlled visa allocations a long time ago. They have acted like sore losers ever since and done nothing to suggest that the original decision was anything other than the correct one.

[MATT2012]

There are a lot of topics going on which I missed, but a few thoughts.

a) EB3 ROW: I do think that controller will not repeat fully what he did with EB2-I last fiscal. He will open the flood gates slowly. I was checking the labor data from fiscal year 2008, the current date movement may help him use the visas in EB3 without wastage. As labor data is very old, there may have a lot changes( porting, abandonment etc), a couple of months more will be sufficient. But in order to build a little more demand he may open it up further to possibly mid to late 2008. As the demand will only show up fully only by late July, August is possibly the last month of movement. So he is looking into building inventory for rest of this fiscal and may be one more fiscal.One more month will help us conclude his direction fully.
b)EB2-I and EB2-C: I fully agree with Specs thoughts that atleast for this fiscal EB2-C will not share the same priority date with EB2-I. So any spillover left after EB2-ROW usage will fully become availiable to EB2I.

[Spectator]

CO could atleast look at 485 inventory for some signal. Last year the 485 pending inventory showed big numbers for EB2-I, but CO didnt seem to look at it but just the demand data and say "extremely low demand". CO also gave false hopes that effort will be made to move dates back to May 2010, only to keeo dates frozen at Sep 2004 for long time.
In this day and age, it's just unimaginable that an idea about demand can not be obtained without moving dates erratically. Just USCIS and DOS should make effort to track and report certain things. But unfortunately such effort may not be a priority, as long as DOS doesnt waste visa numbers which seems to be their priority. End of rant.I'm not sure I follow your argument entirely.

The latest USCIS Inventory available was from January 2012 and that showed just 3.7k 2008 PD cases. The numbers for Jan-Mar 2008 (most of which had been Current over a month) were not that high. They were only about 40% of the likely true figure.

Only when the May Inventory was published did the figures become more apparent (and by that time a large number of PD 2008 cases had already been approved).

I remember we discussed it at the time - USCIS appeared to have a lag time of up to 2 months before receipts were transformed into any useable numbers. We could see some of that from the Trackitt data, which suggested far higher numbers than USCIS were reporting.

If USCIS were suggesting further forward movement in May, they clearly had absolutely no idea of the numbers in their own system.

I don't want to sound like an apologist for DOS - I am sure there are things they could have done better. The whole episode is a classic example of Garbage In Garbage Out.

Since USCIS account for around 90% of EB approvals, it is their responsibility to provide better information.

DOS knew their own exact usage for CP (barring returns) a month in advance of the VB taking effect.

[gc_soon]

Spec,
Appreciate the the reply. I guess I must be wrong about the pending inventory availability.
If the inventory was published only in May 2012, then it makes sense, it must be already too late for CO then. However, I'm not sure if CO looked at the pending inventory as he said every effort would be made to bring back COD to May 2010. Just saying DOS should make some effort to guesstimate demand based on pending inventory and PERM data. It's not as good as data that can be reported by USCIS directly. But still if CO took those into consideration(if not already) it would be better.

[druvraj]

Based on the latest Demand Data could the better informed analyse the SOFAD? Thanks

[Spectator]

Spec,

I am not able to think of a reason why EB-2 I demand for fiscal years 2005 and 2006 is more than Jan inventory. Jan inventory should contain all visa applications submitted in last fiscal year for EB2I. Any thoughts?Matt,

To finally get back to your question.

It is a bit weird isn't it?

Up until the March DD the figures were either below or very close to the January Inventory numbers.

Then we had the that very odd April DD, where EB2-I yearly figures were increasing and decreasing all over the place (2004, 2005 & 2006 all went up, 2007 decreased and 2008 decreased a large amount).

I don't think anyone knows what was going on there. Maybe the comparison is not apples to apples any longer.

Of course, it also assumes that the USCIS Inventory had captured all the cases and was accurate.

I really don't know.

[Spectator]

The PERM Processing Times (http://icert.doleta.gov/) have been updated as of April 1, 2013.

There is also a new PERM Factsheet (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf) with the Q2 figures.

Some quick figures from the PERM Factsheet:

Receipts

YTD - 36,660 (20% Higher than FY2012)

Q2 receipts were 15% higher than Q1.

Processed

YTD - 26,479

Q2 processed were 15% lower than Q1.

Certified

YTD - 21,149

Q2 Certified were 25% lower than Q1.

% in Analyst Review increased from 48% at the end of Q1 to to 58% at the end of Q2.
% in Audit decreased from 37% at the end of Q1 to to 30% at the end of Q2.
% in appeal decreased from 14% at the end of Q1 to to 11% at the end of Q2.

The % where Minimum Education Requirements was Advanced Degree increased from 45% at the end of Q1 to to 53% at the end of Q2. Given a further 38% required at least a Bachelors Degree, the number applying under EB2 must be well over 60% and nearer 70%. I think the 45% in Q1 is a mistake and actually the number are all pretty much unchanged in Q2.

The Top Country of Citizenship remains India and increased from 57% at the end of Q1 to to 59% at the end of Q2.


PERM Processing Times

Regular - remains unchanged at about 4 months.
Audit - increases one month to about 9 months.

Appeal and Government Error times remain unchanged.

[MATT2012]

Just a few observations:

Between October EB2I Inventory (2005-2010) and Jan Inventory (2005-2010) there are only a minor net difference. 41735 Vs. 41777. That only means USICS stacked at some place and later re-distributed. Or there were multiple I-140’s involved as priority date was not properly re-captured. February Demand data came very close to the number (41700-275) which is 41400. In March the numbers went above (42100) and in April it came back to 41600 and in May 42200. I am ignoring 2004 demand as the dates are mostly current. So there is an approximate net addition of 400 applicants between Oct/Jan inventory and May demand.

Now let us compare for the same period in in EB3I which is 2005 onwards. Between October EB3I Inventory (2005 onwards) and Jan Inventory (2005 onwards) there are net difference of 470. 21554 Vs. 21084. So it is clear that the deduction of 470 was not immediately visible in EB2 inventory which is only 30 additions. The demand data for EB3I of 21475 in November vs. 21000 in February is also very close to inventory numbers. But when it comes to demand data May EB3I for the same period is 20550. A reduction of 550 applicants. So in this fiscal there was a total reduction of 470 +550, roughly 1000 reductions in EB3.

I am not sure whether I should co-relate the additions in EB2 to the deductions in EB3. From out of the initial 470 reductions in EB3 there is very close co-relation of 400 additions. Is it possible that demand reduces faster but addition to the new category takes time? The thought does not support USICS established procedures, but Just an observation



Matt,

To finally get back to your question.

It is a bit weird isn't it?

Up until the March DD the figures were either below or very close to the January Inventory numbers.

Then we had the that very odd April DD, where EB2-I yearly figures were increasing and decreasing all over the place (2004, 2005 & 2006 all went up, 2007 decreased and 2008 decreased a large amount).

I don't think anyone knows what was going on there. Maybe the comparison is not apples to apples any longer.

Of course, it also assumes that the USCIS Inventory had captured all the cases and was accurate.

I really don't know.

[MATT2012]

Thanks Spec for posting it...

The PERM Processing Times (http://icert.doleta.gov/) have been updated as of April 1, 2013.

There is also a new PERM Factsheet (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf) with the Q2 figures.

[MATT2012]

Spec,

I was checking the labor data, I did see a drop in EB2-ROW approvals!!

MATT

[Spectator]

Spec,

I was checking the labor data, I did see a drop in EB2-ROW approvals!!

MATTYou'll have to expand on what you were looking at for that to have any meaning!

I see that EB2-WW account for 2% less Certifications at the end of Q2 than they did at the end of Q1 according to the PERM Factsheet. Overall, I would be more worried that receipts at this stage are 20% higher than last year (36,660 vs 30,400). China and India do not solely account for that rise, so eventually WW numbers may actually be higher.

I do know that the number of ROW PERM Certifications were lower in Q1 2013, but that was due to a slowdown in DOL processing speed.

The underlying monthly numbers for PD2012 were actually very similar to PD2011.

The number of Certifications in Q2 is far lower than even Q1 despite an increase in receipts (see my edit to the original post). I'm a bit shocked at how poorly DOL performed in Q2. I doubt they processed many cases beyond a PD of 2012.

The slowdown might be helpful to EB2-I for this FY (I'm certainly keeping an eye on it and will see what the Q2 Disclosure data has to say), but it will just delay the pain to a future FY if CIR does not pass.

[MATT2012]

Spec, check the below numbers I derived from the data for EB2 ROW. The 2nd Qtr had dropped to 1667. I have used 100% conversion factor for I485, and to accomodate dependants I doubled it. I have taken five quarters of data to accomodate the extra quarter for this fiscal.

2012 3rd Qtr---------- 3622
2012 4th Qtr.--------- 4218
2013 1st Qtr. -------- 2286
2013 2nd Qtr.-------- 1667
2013 3rd Projected ----2948
Total-------------------14741
NIW--------------- 2948
Total-------- 17690
I485 Conversion----35379


You'll have to expand on what you were looking at for that to have any meaning!

I see that EB2-WW account for 2% less Certifications at the end of Q2 than they did at the end of Q1 according to the PERM Factsheet. Overall, I would be more worried that receipts at this stage are 20% higher than last year (36,660 vs 30,400). China and India do not solely account for that rise, so eventually WW numbers may actually be higher.

I do know that the number of ROW PERM Certifications were lower in Q1 2013, but that was due to a slowdown in DOL processing speed.

The underlying monthly numbers for PD2012 were actually very similar to PD2011.

The number of Certifications in Q2 is far lower than even Q1 despite an increase in receipts (see my edit to the original post). I'm a bit shocked at how poorly DOL performed in Q2. I doubt they processed many cases beyond a PD of 2012.

The slowdown might be helpful to EB2-I for this FY (I'm certainly keeping an eye on it and will see what the Q2 Disclosure data has to say), but it will just delay the pain to a future FY if CIR does not pass.

[MATT2012]

The increase in receipts and reduction in approvals is worrysome. This may have an impact next fiscal. There is possibly one more quarter of EB-WW labor approvals which has the possibility of consuming visa numbers this fiscal. Hopefully CIR will come as the savior!!

You'll have to expand on what you were looking at for that to have any meaning!

I see that EB2-WW account for 2% less Certifications at the end of Q2 than they did at the end of Q1 according to the PERM Factsheet. Overall, I would be more worried that receipts at this stage are 20% higher than last year (36,660 vs 30,400). China and India do not solely account for that rise, so eventually WW numbers may actually be higher.

I do know that the number of ROW PERM Certifications were lower in Q1 2013, but that was due to a slowdown in DOL processing speed.

The underlying monthly numbers for PD2012 were actually very similar to PD2011.

The number of Certifications in Q2 is far lower than even Q1 despite an increase in receipts (see my edit to the original post). I'm a bit shocked at how poorly DOL performed in Q2. I doubt they processed many cases beyond a PD of 2012.

The slowdown might be helpful to EB2-I for this FY (I'm certainly keeping an eye on it and will see what the Q2 Disclosure data has to say), but it will just delay the pain to a future FY if CIR does not pass.

[MATT2012]

Hi Spec,

Is Bachelors Degree+ 5 Years experience also considered as advance degree for PERM? The document did not mention that way, but is 'nt that the Labor Defenition?

MATT


The PERM Processing Times (http://icert.doleta.gov/) have been updated as of April 1, 2013.

There is also a new PERM Factsheet (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf) with the Q2 figures.

Some quick figures from the PERM Factsheet:

Receipts

YTD - 36,660 (20% Higher than FY2012)

Q2 receipts were 15% higher than Q1.

Processed

YTD - 26,479

Q2 processed were 15% lower than Q1.

Certified

YTD - 21,149

Q2 Certified were 25% lower than Q1.

% in Analyst Review increased from 48% at the end of Q1 to to 58% at the end of Q2.
% in Audit decreased from 37% at the end of Q1 to to 30% at the end of Q2.
% in appeal decreased from 14% at the end of Q1 to to 11% at the end of Q2.

The % where Minimum Education Requirements was Advanced Degree increased from 45% at the end of Q1 to to 53% at the end of Q2. Given a further 38% required at least a Bachelors Degree, the number applying under EB2 must be well over 60% and nearer 70%. I think the 45% in Q1 is a mistake and actually the number are all pretty much unchanged in Q2.

The Top Country of Citizenship remains India and increased from 57% at the end of Q1 to to 59% at the end of Q2.


PERM Processing Times

Regular - remains unchanged at about 4 months.
Audit - increases one month to about 9 months.

Appeal and Government Error times remain unchanged.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

Is Bachelors Degree+ 5 Years experience also considered as advance degree for PERM? The document did not mention that way, but is 'nt that the Labor Defenition?

MATTMatt,

Yes, which is why i said


Given a further 38% required at least a Bachelors Degree, the number applying under EB2 must be well over 60% and nearer 70%.

The last time I looked at the PWD, about 78% of requests appeared to be for EB2 jobs based on the minimum requirements (AD & Bachelors +5).

PERM wouldn't be that high since the the PWD undoubtedly contains multiple requests for the same position.

About 65% of the Bachelors PWD cases also required at least 5 years experience, so I wouldn't be surprised if half the PERM Bachelors cases were also EB2. 53% + 19% = 72%

[Spectator]

Spec, check the below numbers I derived from the data for EB2 ROW. The 2nd Qtr had dropped to 1667. I have used 100% conversion factor for I485, and to accomodate dependants I doubled it. I have taken five quarters of data to accomodate the extra quarter for this fiscal.

2012 3rd Qtr---------- 3622
2012 4th Qtr.--------- 4218
2013 1st Qtr. -------- 2286
2013 2nd Qtr.-------- 1667
2013 3rd Projected ----2948
Total-------------------14741
NIW--------------- 2948
Total-------- 17690
I485 Conversion----35379

I can't reproduce your numbers. I'm not sure if you are referring to ROW or WW (ROW-M-P). Either way, the PERM figures look too low. Possibly I am misunderstanding what you are calculating and from what data source.

When I did the calculation for ROW only using the 2 PERM Factsheets published this FY and the one published at the end of FY2012 and

a) Used known historical data to account for Mexico since that isn't part of the PERM Factsheet.

b) Used 65% as EB2 cases of total PERM and 2 I-485 per PERM.

c) Used the current rate of 19% for NIW.

b) Used the current rate of 8% Indian Nationality, but ROW Chargeability.

I get a figure of 33.5k for ROW if I use your assumption of 2.9k for Q3 2013.

The calculated ROW PERM figures from the PERM Factsheet were a very good match to the actual numbers from the disclosure data, so I have a high confidence that I have calculated correctly.

I actually think it is more likely to take 6 months from PERM certification to I-485 approval, so the Q3 number is unnecessary and I therefore did a second calculation and took the 5 quarters back to Q2 2012. Only those people who PP might creep in from a Q3 2013 PERM Certification.

That gave a figure of 33.0k, so it is basically the same either way. That is against the revised ROW allocation of 32.5k.

Both Mexico and Philippines behave very differently, so the same assumptions wouldn't hold for them. That's why I specifically calculated ROW only.

Perhaps you want to walk me through how you calculated Q1 and Q2 2013 and we can see where the difference is?

[MATT2012]

Given that Indian & Chinese may have an higher percentage of Advanced Degree and their combined weightage is high( more in numbers), Will EB2-WW have roughly 55-60% ?? My thought was EB2-WW will be around 55%. I remember US Non immigration blog site had an aproximation of 50%, but that was a two years ago.


Matt,

Yes, which is why i said



The last time I looked at the PWD, about 78% of requests appeared to be for EB2 jobs based on the minimum requirements (AD & Bachelors +5).

PERM wouldn't be that high since the the PWD undoubtedly contains multiple requests for the same position.

About 65% of the Bachelors PWD cases also required at least 5 years experience, so I wouldn't be surprised if half the PERM Bachelors cases were also EB2. 53% + 19% = 72%

[MATT2012]

Also I did nt include the 8% Indian nationality getting charged to ROW, Thanks for throwing light into it. Though one of my colleagues recently did it, ooops My bad.

[Spectator]

Given that Indian & Chinese may have an higher percentage of Advanced Degree and their combined weightage is high( more in numbers), Will EB2-WW have roughly 55-60% ?? My thought was EB2-WW will be around 55%. I remember US Non immigration blog site had an aproximation of 50%, but that was a two years ago.Matt,

That was a blog I used to enjoy, although I never agreed with that figure. It's a shame it just died suddenly.

It might have been 50% a long time ago, but not any longer, exactly as it has increased for India.

The difference in Cut off dates for ROW between EB2 and EB3 is similar to that for India (~6 years).

Nobody wants to file in EB3 if they have to. It is equally unattractive whatever Country a person comes from.

I'm not sure why you think a ROW applicant is less likely to have an Advanced Degree. The high number of NIW and approvals in EB1 and EB2 would suggest otherwise.

ROW represent the second highest % of PERM applications, with China a very distant third. I once did the calculation which showed the ROW % had to be nearly as high as India's to maintain the overall %, since Mexico and Philippines have far higher numbers in EB3. China's % isn't as high as you would think, because they also have a large number of EB3-EW applicants. Check out their Cut Off Date.

ROW could not have such high EB2 approvals if a high % of the PERM based I-140 were not filed under EB2. The figures simply wouldn't work otherwise.

[vizcard]

I actually think it is more likely to take 6 months from PERM certification to I-485 approval, so the Q3 number is unnecessary and I therefore did a second calculation and took the 5 quarters back to Q2 2012. Only those people who PP might creep in from a Q3 2013 PERM Certification.

That gave a figure of 33.0k, so it is basically the same either way. That is against the revised ROW allocation of 32.5k.

Both Mexico and Philippines behave very differently, so the same assumptions wouldn't hold for them. That's why I specifically calculated ROW only.

Perhaps you want to walk me through how you calculated Q1 and Q2 2013 and we can see where the difference is?

Spec - U earlier had a number of around 40K for EB2ROW. So is the 33K number a revised number down? Also, isnt the revised allocation for ROW almost 39K (after incl the 18K visas). I'm a lil confused about the 32.5K number above.

[MATT2012]

Spec,
I was just speaking from the labor perspective not from ROW advanced degree perspective. I did a filter for PERM raw file with a Salary of 70K or more for WW except I & C, if I am not wrong it came between 55-60 %. it was difficult to get a straight figure as there were hourly, monthly etc, I did nt bother to convert. I just wanted to know the trend. As salary also cannot determine the category, I left it there.

I have great respect ROW as the education circumstances are totally different than what I had .

I used to enjoy the website too, never knew why they shut down. There was another one named immigration watch. they used provide a lot statistics. They also died.

Coming back to the numbers on PERM, Do you think that the EB2WW max around 38K, I mean including M and P.?

Thanks Spec for all your expert thoughts, there are very few folks in the internet forum who would provide detailed statistical back up for their respective predictions.
MATT



Matt,

That was a blog I used to enjoy, although I never agreed with that figure. It's a shame it just died suddenly.

It might have been 50% a long time ago, but not any longer, exactly as it has increased for India.

The difference in Cut off dates for ROW between EB2 and EB3 is similar to that for India (~6 years).

Nobody wants to file in EB3 if they have to. It is equally unattractive whatever Country a person comes from.

I'm not sure why you think a ROW applicant is less likely to have an Advanced Degree. The high number of NIW and approvals in EB1 and EB2 would suggest otherwise.

ROW represent the second highest % of PERM applications, with China a very distant third. I once did the calculation which showed the ROW % had to be nearly as high as India's to maintain the overall %, since Mexico and Philippines have far higher numbers in EB3. China's % isn't as high as you would think, because they also have a large number of EB3-EW applicants. Check out their Cut Off Date.

ROW could not have such high EB2 approvals if a high % of the PERM based I-140 were not filed under EB2. The figures simply wouldn't work otherwise.

[Spectator]

Spec - U earlier had a number of around 40K for EB2ROW. So is the 33K number a revised number down? Also, isnt the revised allocation for ROW almost 39K (after incl the 18K visas). I'm a lil confused about the 32.5K number above.viz,

The 40k figure was referencing EB2-WW rather than EB2-ROW alone.

The 33k was just a reply to Matt's calculation - I can think of other factors as well.

Currently, I am happy to stick to EB2-WW using about the revised allocation they have.

[vizcard]

viz,

The 40k figure was referencing EB2-WW rather than EB2-ROW alone.

The 33k was just a reply to Matt's calculation - I can think of other factors as well.

Currently, I am happy to stick to EB2-WW using about the revised allocation they have.

That makes sense. Thanks!

I just hope CIR goes thru with some benefit to the current EB backlog.

[gc_soon]

This seems to be interesting - http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1213194823/rfe-issued/page/last_page

His PD is Nov'04 EB2-I. Got an RFE now on his I-485 when the dates are not current. Does it mean they are reviewing future cases and we may see some movement for EB2-I in the next (May) bulletin?

Another one,
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1217896071/rfe-after-17-months-of-filing-i485/page/last_page

[MeraGC1]

AC-21 and H1B

Hi Gurus,

I have few questions about AC-21 and H1 visa. I have an offer and planning to invoke AC-21. My priority date is July 2008, EB2I. I am in my 8th year of H1. The new company has agreed to transfer H1 and will also send AC-21 docs to USCIS. If for some reason, my 485 gets rejected, can I still stay on H1 as my H1 will be valid till 2016 (current H1 expires in 2014, I am assuming when the new company files for H1 transfer I will get 3 years of H1 extension based on I-140 approval and AOS pending)? I know you can file MTR, if 485 gets rejected, but just want to know my options before invoking AC-21. I am moving from a Manager role to Director role. As per My labor, my current job requirement is Masters plus 3 years of experience. The new job requirement is Bachelor's with 8+ years of experience.

Thanks in advance.

[vizcard]

AC-21 and H1B

Hi Gurus,

I have few questions about AC-21 and H1 visa. I have an offer and planning to invoke AC-21. My priority date is July 2008, EB2I. I am in my 8th year of H1. The new company has agreed to transfer H1 and will also send AC-21 docs to USCIS. If for some reason, my 485 gets rejected, can I still stay on H1 as my H1 will be valid till 2016 (current H1 expires in 2014, I am assuming when the new company files for H1 transfer I will get 3 years of H1 extension based on I-140 approval and AOS pending)?
yes you can. Not sure about getting the 3 yr extension as there is a difference between a transfer vs an extension but I'm not 100% sure on that.
I know you can file MTR, if 485 gets rejected, but just want to know my options before invoking AC-21. I am moving from a Manager role to Director role. As per My labor, my current job requirement is Masters plus 3 years of experience. The new job requirement is Bachelor's with 8+ years of experience.
I don't think the experience is the issue. Its the type of job. If its similar job responsibilities, its fine. Going from manager to director within research is ok but going from manager in research to director in sales is not (just an example btw).
Thanks in advance.

see above inline responses

[pseudonym]

Some additional info that I thought I should share with the folks on this forum. Unfortunately, it doesn't sound very positive based on the attorney's short response (without much detail). This was in response to a question that I had posted on the attorney's website regarding an article they had about an upcoming meeting with CO. See link in the email conversation below. I will try to ask for more details.

--------------------------------------------------

From: David Ware <dware@david-ware.com>
Date: Sun, Apr 14, 2013 at 2:00 PM
Subject: RE: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim
To: <---@gmail.com>


Yes, india EB 2 will advance a bit, not much by July or August.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.





-----Original Message-----
From: info@david-ware.com [mailto:info@david-ware.com] On Behalf Of ---@gmail.com
Sent: Friday, April 12, 2013 2:01 PM
To: David Ware
Subject: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim

--- sent a message using the contact form at http://david-ware.com/contact.

Hi,

You have an article on your website that states that you were going to have a meeting with Charles Oppenheim on April 6 to get projections for EB2 India and China. Below is the link to the article. Were you able to meet with Mr.
Oppenheim and would you be able to share the outcome of that meeting?

http://david-ware.com/immigration-information/breaking-news/get-out-way-here-comes-china-eb-2-and-india

Thanks.

[Vkkpnm]

Yes you can get 3 years extension based on approved I140 on h1 transfer. I got 3 yrs extension in a similar scenario.

[MeraGC1]

Thank you, Vizcard and Vkkpnm.

So if 485 gets rejected, I can start my green card process by retaining the old priority date?

Thanks!

[gc_soon]

Thank you, Vizcard and Vkkpnm.

So if 485 gets rejected, I can start my green card process by retaining the old priority date?

Thanks!
There should be no reason for 485 to get rejected unless fraud(by you or your employer) is involved.
Having said that, to answer your question, in case I485 gets denied, yes PD can be retained for the next application. Better to consult a lawyer if you need more peace of mind. Good luck.

[Spectator]

Some additional info that I thought I should share with the folks on this forum. Unfortunately, it doesn't sound very positive based on the attorney's short response (without much detail). This was in response to a question that I had posted on the attorney's website regarding an article they had about an upcoming meeting with CO. See link in the email conversation below. I will try to ask for more details.

--------------------------------------------------

From: David Ware <dware@david-ware.com>
Date: Sun, Apr 14, 2013 at 2:00 PM
Subject: RE: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim
To: <---@gmail.com>


Yes, india EB 2 will advance a bit, not much by July or August.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.





-----Original Message-----
From: info@david-ware.com [mailto:info@david-ware.com] On Behalf Of ---@gmail.com
Sent: Friday, April 12, 2013 2:01 PM
To: David Ware
Subject: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim

--- sent a message using the contact form at http://david-ware.com/contact.

Hi,

You have an article on your website that states that you were going to have a meeting with Charles Oppenheim on April 6 to get projections for EB2 India and China. Below is the link to the article. Were you able to meet with Mr.
Oppenheim and would you be able to share the outcome of that meeting?

http://david-ware.com/immigration-information/breaking-news/get-out-way-here-comes-china-eb-2-and-india

Thanks.pseudonym,

Welcome to the forum.

Thank you for sharing. Kudos for your pro-activity in following up the article and asking the question.

It's a shame the response was so brief. Let us know if they do post a further article about the meeting.

[MATT2012]

Thanks Pseudonym for sharing. I am yet to digest the NEWS, my brain cells got superactive reading it..

Spec,

I am a bit confused, At this point I dont have any reasons to think that the attorney is not correct, are we heading to August/September play? Or is it the visa office's generic answer to avoid the question!!
it is still possible, to make the big movement late, but I did not understand the advantage for the Visa office in doing so.What possible factor is in CO's mind to hold up eB2I until that late??
Is this USICS vs Visa Office, or is this political preperation for immigration reform..Lots of questions popped up as soon as I read it..
He is speaking little movement around July/August. Before the demand shows up it is time for the next bulletin.I am not able to see any advantage.
Hopefully we will see mentions about it soon, it has been a week since this meeting happened, and it is not mentioned in any common websites :(

[pseudonym]

Thanks Spectator and Matt. I was able to get some additional information. Very discouraging and disappointing, if indeed accurate. See full email chain below:

-----------------------------------------------------------------

From: David Ware <dware@david-ware.com>
Date: Sun, Apr 14, 2013 at 4:39 PM
Subject: RE: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim
To: <---@gmail.com>


Just a few weeks by end of FY.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.




From: [---@gmail.com]
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2013 4:39 PM
To: David Ware
Subject: Re: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim

Thanks for your reply. Was there any guidance or approximate date range provided around where India EB2 might advance to over the next few months or till the end of this fiscal year?

Appreciate your response.

---


On Sun, Apr 14, 2013 at 2:00 PM, David Ware <dware@david-ware.com> wrote:
Yes, india EB 2 will advance a bit, not much by July or August.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.





-----Original Message-----
From: info@david-ware.com [mailto:info@david-ware.com] On Behalf Of ---@gmail.com
Sent: Friday, April 12, 2013 2:01 PM
To: David Ware
Subject: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim

--- sent a message using the contact form at http://david-ware.com/contact.

Hi,

You have an article on your website that states that you were going to have a meeting with Charles Oppenheim on April 6 to get projections for EB2 India and China. Below is the link to the article. Were you able to meet with Mr.
Oppenheim and would you be able to share the outcome of that meeting?

http://david-ware.com/immigration-information/breaking-news/get-out-way-here-comes-china-eb-2-and-india

Thanks.

[sbhagwat2000]

Thanks Pseudonym for sharing. I am yet to digest the NEWS, my brain cells got superactive reading it..

Spec,

I am a bit confused, At this point I dont have any reasons to think that the attorney is not correct, are we heading to August/September play? Or is it the visa office's generic answer to avoid the question!!
it is still possible, to make the big movement late, but I did not understand the advantage for the Visa office in doing so.What possible factor is in CO's mind to hold up eB2I until that late??
Is this USICS vs Visa Office, or is this political preperation for immigration reform..Lots of questions popped up as soon as I read it..I
He is speaking little movement around July/August. Before the demand shows up it is time for the next bulletin.I am not able to see any advantage.
Hopefully we will see mentions about it soon, it has been a week since this meeting happened, and it is not mentioned in any common websites :(

This means that all our hopes of movement should be laid to rest. These are early indications that the demand even with FB is so high that SO is going to be very less. When CO says a bit that means it will not even cross 2004. I guess we have missed something in our FB projjections.

[sbhagwat2000]

This means that all our hopes of movement should be laid to rest. These are early indications that the demand even with FB is so high that SO is going to be very less. When CO says a bit that means it will not even cross 2004. I guess we have missed something in our FB projjections.

Hey guys - sorry to provide this information on monday morning. But I also emailed the person and got his reply as follows-- I asked him what did CO say abt FY 2013 and below is his reply -



He said India would move forward only a few weeks by the end of the FY. Sorry! But of course by then we should have immigration legislation which takes care of the problem.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.


The only thing I can think of is that EB2 WW is sucking all the Fall down from EB1

[Spectator]

Thanks Spectator and Matt. I was able to get some additional information. Very discouraging and disappointing, if indeed accurate. See full email chain below:

-----------------------------------------------------------------

From: David Ware <dware@david-ware.com>
Date: Sun, Apr 14, 2013 at 4:39 PM
Subject: RE: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim
To: <---@gmail.com>


Just a few weeks by end of FY.


From: [---@gmail.com]
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2013 4:39 PM
To: David Ware
Subject: Re: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim

Thanks for your reply. Was there any guidance or approximate date range provided around where India EB2 might advance to over the next few months or till the end of this fiscal year?

Appreciate your response.

---



Hey guys - sorry to provide this information on monday morning. But I also emailed the person and got his reply as follows-- I asked him what did CO say abt FY 2013 and below is his reply -

He said India would move forward only a few weeks by the end of the FY. Sorry! But of course by then we should have immigration legislation which takes care of the problem.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.


The only thing I can think of is that EB2 WW is sucking all the Fall down from EB1This is not good news to wake up to.

Thanks to both of you for obtaining further information. I don't doubt the sincerity of the reply.

I too am at a bit of a loss to understand why CO would be so pessimistic. I (as people know) can be one of the most pessimistic people around, but even my worst case scenario does not fit with what has been said.

I can only hope that CO is just keeping his cards very close to his chest and does not want to raise any expectations.

There is still a long time to go in this FY and anything can happen, it may be a negative sign, but it is not determinative.

[sbhagwat2000]

This is not good news to wake up to.

Thanks to both of you for obtaining further information. I don't doubt the sincerity of the reply.

I too am at a bit of a loss to understand why CO would be so pessimistic. I (as people know) can be one of the most pessimistic people around, but even my worst case scenario does not fit with what has been said.

I can only hope that CO is just keeping his cards very close to his chest and does not want to raise any expectations.

There is still a long time to go in this FY and anything can happen, it may be a negative sign, but it is not determinative.

I agree with you that it makes no sense with the data we have. But I guess CO may have other data with him that we are missing. Also think abt it - EB2 WW using 45000 is not in the realm of the impossible anymore

[sbhagwat2000]

I agree with you that it makes no sense with the data we have. But I guess CO may have other data with him that we are missing. Also think abt it - EB2 WW using 45000 is not in the realm of the impossible anymore

I cannot get this out of my head - did some quick calculations -

Lets say

EB1 - 41000 - this has happened in the past
EB2 WW - 45000 - in the realm of possiblility since EB2 WW has already exhausted 25000 visas

EB1 has - 5000 + 1135 from EB4 -extra = 6135 - > no extra visas from EB5

6135 - 6000 = 135.

I think this is what is happening and hence no movement in eb2i

[Still_Waiting]

Something seems off!!

For one, April 6, 2013 is a Saturday. As far as I know (I went back and checked as much as I could on Google) all of Charles' other meetings with AILA or other groups have been on weekdays (correct me if I'm wrong please). Typically when he meets with a group, all of them post on their website ASAP. This is the best way for most attorneys to generate traffic and thereby business, so it's very unlikely for them to sit on this for a week and not say anything, ESPECIALLY info like this. Since this April 6th meeting is not showing up on any other source, that would then mean that Charles met with someone from Ware|Gasparian on a Saturday and gave them some potentially HUGE news that he didn't give anyone else.

I'm not saying that it's not possible, it just seems VERY odd!!

[Spectator]

Something seems off!!

For one, April 6, 2013 is a Saturday. As far as I know (I went back and checked as much as I could on Google) all of Charles' other meetings with AILA or other groups have been on weekdays (correct me if I'm wrong please). Typically when he meets with a group, all of them post on their website ASAP. This is the best way for most attorneys to generate traffic and thereby business, so it's very unlikely for them to sit on this for a week and not say anything, ESPECIALLY info like this. Since this April 6th meeting is not showing up on any other source, that would then mean that Charles met with someone from Ware|Gasparian on a Saturday and gave them some potentially HUGE news that he didn't give anyone else.

I'm not saying that it's not possible, it just seems VERY odd!!Still_Waiting,

I'll admit that my first thought was that CO does not seem to be in the habit of meeting with individual law firms and that no other law firm was reporting this. I hadn't checked the date.

Nonetheless, the same opinion from this firm has now been given to two of our members.

It would be highly unethical for a law firm to lie about this. It would have been just as easy to say that the meeting did not, in the end, take place.

But it is only an interpretation of what what CO may have said - we do not know the exact words used, or whether CO said anything further as to why this might be a possibility.

Take the response as a sincere reply, but subject to possible misinterpretation or over interpretation.

I would urge people not to go overboard about it. Let's see if further confirmations are forthcoming.

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,

I agree we shoould be waiting for more info. What do you think on the calculation above though? Do you see it happening where EB1 and 2 WW basically suck the extra visas. do you see EB2 WW using 45000?

[venkat]

I feel the first real sign would be coming from consular Green Card cases. Lets hope that someone with a late 2007 or early 2008 priority date gets communication from NVC for an immigrant visa appointment in India.

Typically appointments are given about 40-45 days ahead of time. We should know around late May or early June.

Note:- I think this helped us a lot during late 2011 when cutoff dates were getting advanced left and right. NVC fee receipt dates were dictating how fast dates would move ahead.

[Vkkpnm]

Spec/Matt,

What do you think on the calculation done by sbhagwat2000?

Thanks

[geeaarpee]

I cannot get this out of my head - did some quick calculations -

Lets say

EB1 - 41000 - this has happened in the past
EB2 WW - 45000 - in the realm of possiblility since EB2 WW has already exhausted 25000 visas

EB1 has - 5000 + 1135 from EB4 -extra = 6135 - > no extra visas from EB5

6135 - 6000 = 135.

I think this is what is happening and hence no movement in eb2i

Are you kidding me? The only way it is possible, if EB3-WW is current (means everyone has ported).

[MATT2012]

I did sleep through the attorneys comment. As Spec pointed out, why should an Attorney lie, that too in a written communication.
Being said that, I dont think the meeting was an AILA meeting. So CO was not giving a formal guidance. It is possibly a one off question, and a so generic answer to avoid further questions. That is my conclusion.As we dont know, how the question was framed or its circumstances, there is no point further analysing the comment. For the time being I will leave the topic, until we get further guidance.



Thanks Spectator and Matt. I was able to get some additional information. Very discouraging and disappointing, if indeed accurate. See full email chain below:

-----------------------------------------------------------------

From: David Ware <dware@david-ware.com>
Date: Sun, Apr 14, 2013 at 4:39 PM
Subject: RE: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim
To: <---@gmail.com>


Just a few weeks by end of FY.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.




From: [---@gmail.com]
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2013 4:39 PM
To: David Ware
Subject: Re: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim

Thanks for your reply. Was there any guidance or approximate date range provided around where India EB2 might advance to over the next few months or till the end of this fiscal year?

Appreciate your response.

---


On Sun, Apr 14, 2013 at 2:00 PM, David Ware <dware@david-ware.com> wrote:
Yes, india EB 2 will advance a bit, not much by July or August.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.





-----Original Message-----
From: info@david-ware.com [mailto:info@david-ware.com] On Behalf Of ---@gmail.com
Sent: Friday, April 12, 2013 2:01 PM
To: David Ware
Subject: [General inquiries] Outcome of meeting with Charles Oppenheim

--- sent a message using the contact form at http://david-ware.com/contact.

Hi,

You have an article on your website that states that you were going to have a meeting with Charles Oppenheim on April 6 to get projections for EB2 India and China. Below is the link to the article. Were you able to meet with Mr.
Oppenheim and would you be able to share the outcome of that meeting?

http://david-ware.com/immigration-information/breaking-news/get-out-way-here-comes-china-eb-2-and-india

Thanks.

[vizcard]

Are you kidding me? The only way it is possible, if EB3-WW is current (means everyone has ported).

I agree. Considering EB3WW demand is 3850 from the last demand data, it would imply everyone ported over to get to 45K. Not impossible considering people might be concerned about CIR (benefit for India - bad for everyone else) - but unlikely.

There are 3 ways that could result in the language of this email. In ranking of probabiity (high to low) according to me -
1. CO has some data thats positive but doesn't want to raise hopes.
2. CO doesn't have the info and hedged
3. There's some major crap going on behind the scenes that's not evident from the data published.

[MATT2012]

I would like to see numerical/circumstantial evidence to come to any conclusion.

But coming to his calculation, he has point that EB1 has used more visas in the past, but that was before Karzarian. I am not saying it cannot happen again. Any normal logic will suggest to spillovers even before, FB SO came in.

I partly agree on EB5, it is a possible scenario given the increase in applications.

EB2 WW- There is no evidence that it is headed over 42K, this is taking into consideration around 25K already consumed.

Spec/Matt,

What do you think on the calculation done by sbhagwat2000?

Thanks

[MATT2012]

I was planning to put out the below later this week in trackitt, given all the discussions we had due to Attorney email, I am putting it out here..

Just a consolidation of my thoughts on EB priority date movement for rest of this fiscal. The below do not take into consideration any legislative changes.
EB1 Trends
The general expectation for EB1 is it will give more spill overs than last fiscal. As many of you know, EB1 used majority of its own initial quota last fiscal. EB1 had very less usage the previous fiscal (2010-2011). It was due to uncertainty/changes created by Kazarian case.
What should be the general expectation? EB1 should yield between 2K – 6K. Tackitt trends are one of the early indicators of EB1 consumption. As there are very minor representations of anybody other than EB1- India, it is hard to make a conclusion. There are some reductions in EB-1C Indian cases in trackitt. Can this be considered as across the board, may be? The only official indication is from Feb AILA meeting, where the Controller is quoted as saying “Possible good news is the possibility of certain “fall down” from EB-1 (numbers are not known at this point) to allow for more numbers to be used for EB-2 India.” Quoted from CILAW group.
To conclude a spillover expectation of 3-4 K spillover is realistic.
EB2 Trends
EB2 WW consumed 33k in fiscal year 2010-2011 and roughly 25k in fiscal year 2011-2012. Keep in mind that fiscal year 2011-2012 had only 9 months as visas were ‘U’ or unavailable for 3 months. If they have been available, the consumption may have been close equivalent to the previous fiscal. So there is between 6 – 8K visa demand pending from last fiscal, which was carried forward to this fiscal. So if the normal demand of this fiscal stays same as last year, we should expect a demand between 39K and 41K. Trackitt trends for first six months for EB2-WW are equivalent to the annual demand from last fiscal which is 25K. Going by that thought, as we have roughly six months left EB2-WW may consume upto 41K. As there was some uncertainty last fiscal for the EB2-WW community due to retrogression, there may be more representation in trackitt. But an expectation of around 38-39K will be realistic.
The other early indicator is labor approval trends. It is very much pointing towards 37- 38K consumption this fiscal. The conclusion is majority of its own spillover will be consumed by EB2-WW, 4K will be a safe assumption.
EB2 China will use its own quota this fiscal year and the indications are it will move without any dependency to EB2- India and will end up around October, 2008(+/-).
EB3Trends
The current movement will help avoid wastage of visas from this category. With the next VB movement it will be more than sufficient for this fiscal. In order to build demand for next fiscal the controller may decide to move more aggressively into mid to late 2008 which may possibly lead to retrogression during next fiscal which starts in October. Will need one more Visa Bulletin to confirm the direction.
EB3-I should end up around Feb, 2003(+/-) by end of this fiscal.
EB4 Trends
There is no early lead/guidance available for this category. For projection purposes, one can only look into past usages. In the middle of last fiscal there were some warnings about excessive EB4 usage, but eventually it gave SO of roughly 2.5 K. The expectation is that SO will be very similar or slightly more. There is no certainty in this category as there were fiscal years the quota completely consumed. I-360 which is the early indicator takes generally 5 months to process, many applications takes more than that (6-8 months) and from my understanding it cannot be concurrently filed with I-485. The number of pending cases of I-360 has increased and number of completed cases has reduced. Unless USICS gears up, the spillover of around 2.5 – 3K is moderate.
EB5 Trends
EB5 always have yielded SO in the last many fiscal years. The amount of SO have reduced in the last two fiscals due to increased demand. As per Visa office, they thought of establishing a cutoff for China, which they later backed off. At this point expecting spillover of anything more than couple of 100’s is not logical. One should assume EB5 may probably use its entire quota. I-526 which is the early indicator, have a lot pending applications. There is a shift of application processing of I-526 from CA to Washington, which may increase the processing times temporally. But going forward it is a big question mark!! The below is the quote from Washington Post.
“State Department officials said they are on track to issue a record number of visas this year — more than 9,000, close to the annual limit of 10,000 mandated by Congress”
Porting
There are no conclusive methods to calculate porting, one can either compare USICS inventory or DoS demand data. Both will give totally different figures for porting. There is a general thought process that porting consumed roughly 2500-3000 visas last year. If porting has consumed 2750 in 8 months, it should naturally be 5500 in this fiscal. Considering another 20% increase it should be around 6600. Out of the 6600, 1500 has already consumed visas, so an upcoming demand of 5100.
Another method is based on assumed consumption, If you assume that 250 visas are issued every month in the current fiscal for priority dates 2003 and 2004 and leaves 425 as demand, the calculation will be little different. 250 x 6(representing six complete months of consumption) = 1500. 1500 + 425 demand = 1925 being demand for 10 months, so for fiscal till Sep 30, 2013 it will be = 1925/10 * 16 = 3080. So for each calendar year there may be a demand of roughly 1550. So total 4.5 fiscal years until July 2007. 1550x 4.5 = 6975. Considering 1500 visas issued, the upcoming demand may be 6975 – 1500 = 5475.
The first figure makes an assumption of 20% increase which assumes a big part of labor approval increases are due to porting. The second figure assumes 250 visas are issued per month. Either one may not completely hold true. Porting demand between 5100 and 5500 should not come as a total surprise. Only time will prove, whether we were totally wrong in this assumption, or we got it somewhat correct. As I wasn’t fully sure about the above two approaches, for my calculation purposes I derived a figure of 4500 based on my calculations on demand data movement.
Conclusion
Based on what I discussed above, it should take the priority date to March/April 2008. Though I wouldn’t be surprised seeing a movement further than that. Regarding when the dates will move, my thought process is, it will be at least two steps, not sure when!!
Before I conclude, I would like to thank many senior members in different forums including trackitt and Q’s forum, who put out their logical thought process in writing for benefit of others. I learned most of the above from many of them. As an additional thank you, if I don’t thank Spec from Q forum, it will not be fair. He always had clear statistical backups for any discussion I had with him.
Let me conclude by saying many data elements discussed above, assumes the demand will be based on historic trends. As there are various factors involved, including demand, processing speed, timing of the visa date movement etc., it is extremely difficult to conclude one way or other. Each one of us should conclude based on one’s own thought process. Ultimately we all need “Almighty God’s Blessing” or as some may call it ‘LUCK’, for success in every aspect of our lives including immigration.

[gc_soon]

Thanks Matt.
Few weeks end of FY is as good as no movement at all. Movement in weeks is normally mentioned only for EB3. Few weeks movement may consume in low hundreds at most. A low hundreds figure
would mean literally no SO. If CO is expecting no SO, he could have said no movement.
Is there a possibility CO or lawyer confused EB3 with EB2?

[vizcard]

Matt
That seems inline with what Spec and Q have been saying. Ofcourse this new email throws question in to some of the assumptions. Porting by far is the biggest unknown. Another 5500 just seems high based on gut feeling but i can't argue with the calculations you have. I tend to agree more with your 4500 number but splitting the difference even if we go with 5000, the dates should move close to June than April 2008.

The other variable is processing times. If the jumps happen in the Aug and Sep VB, not everyone porting (2004-2007) will have their cases done this year. So while the gross number might be around 5000, the net might be slightly lower. I'm not counting on that but that could factor in.

[sbhagwat2000]

Thanks Matt for the great work here. I wish what you are saying were true. I think we should all just accept the fact that there will be no SO. It seems theres something thats unknown to us that we are not taking into consideration. Lawyers who reply like this will speak the truth and will always have the correct info. By May it will be clear what we have missed

[MATT2012]

If USICS reduces their processing time for EB2-WW and EB1, it will consume more visas there by reducing SO. That is all that I can think of now. But to conclude, I would like to see some indicators in some forum..
or As you said there may be a new Unknown factor this fiscal.

Thanks Matt for the great work here. I wish what you are saying were true. I think we should all just accept the fact that there will be no SO. It seems theres something thats unknown to us that we are not taking into consideration. Lawyers who reply like this will speak the truth and will always have the correct info. By May it will be clear what we have missed

[SmileBaba]

Is there a possibility CO or lawyer confused EB3 with EB2?

That's what rang my mind too! I think Lawyer firm got confused between EB3 and EB2.

Matt: Thanks much for the time and effort you put into coming up with a detailed analysis.

[bvsamrat]

The following scenerio might hold good for all statements

a) July movement - only for few weeks
b) August all the spill over applied to move to June/July2008- depending on SO and demand only. No porters are counted
c) September back to retrogression to March/April 2005 due to porter rush of applications
d) Same will continue next year.

All lucky would get GC before porters kick in- Hence opening window would be only a Month=IMHO


Thanks Matt for the great work here. I wish what you are saying were true. I think we should all just accept the fact that there will be no SO. It seems theres something thats unknown to us that we are not taking into consideration. Lawyers who reply like this will speak the truth and will always have the correct info. By May it will be clear what we have missed

[Spectator]

Matt,

That truly is an excellent summary above.

It explains both why the conclusions have been reached and where the uncertainties lie.

If our exchanges have helped, that all good - I have benefited equally. Your praise is very generous, but unwarranted.

Ultimately, it's all a collaborative effort, but you should take full credit for this piece of work. I'll repeat it again - this really is an excellent summary.

[Niksammy]

The following scenerio might hold good for all statements

a) July movement - only for few weeks
b) August all the spill over applied to move to June/July2008- depending on SO and demand only. No porters are counted
c) September back to retrogression to March/April 2005 due to porter rush of applications
d) Same will continue next year.

All lucky would get GC before porters kick in- Hence opening window would be only a Month=IMHO

Gurus,

Isn't all the Eb2-I demand from Sept 2004 till mid-2007 primarily people porting from EB3 to EB2 ? So if EB2-I dates move in two steps (say first by few weeks in July 2013 and then to early-2008 in Aug 2013) or in one giant step to late-2007 (in July 2013), USCIS will STILL primarily be processing porting applications. Is that a correct statement?

[Spectator]

The following scenerio might hold good for all statements

a) July movement - only for few weeks
b) August all the spill over applied to move to June/July2008- depending on SO and demand only. No porters are counted
c) September back to retrogression to March/April 2005 due to porter rush of applications
d) Same will continue next year.

All lucky would get GC before porters kick in- Hence opening window would be only a Month=IMHO

Gurus,

Isn't all the Eb2-I demand from Sept 2004 till mid-2007 primarily people porting from EB3 to EB2 ? So if EB2-I dates move in two steps (say first by few weeks in July 2013 and then to early-2008 in Aug 2013) or in one giant step to late-2007 (in July 2013), USCIS will STILL primarily be processing porting applications. Is that a correct statement?Niksammy,

There is still some uncertainty as to how quickly a queued up porting case might be processed by USCIS and whether they might get RFEs. I think bvsamrat assumes it will take some time.

Another valid scenario (discussed previously) based on what is basically a 2 step movement would be

a) July VB - little movement.
b) August VB - movement to the end of 2006 or end of 2007 depending on numbers.
c) September VB - movement to final date.
d) Internally retrogress in September when visa numbers are exhausted (usually about 2 weeks before the end of the FY).

The advantage is that, in general it preserves approval in PD order and ensures that if insufficient porting cases are approved in August (CO has to set the September VB in early August) that there are sufficient numbers of "ordinary" pre-adjudicated EB2 cases that can be quickly approved to use up available numbers.

Again, the disadvantage for many is that later PDs will be Current for only one month and it will again be a lottery as to who gets approved and who doesn't before visa numbers are exhausted for the FY.

A more even 3 step movement scenario is also a possibility as are several others.

[sbhagwat2000]

Niksammy,

There is still some uncertainty as to how quickly a queued up porting case might be processed by USCIS and whether they might get RFEs. I think bvsamrat assumes it will take some time.

Another valid scenario (discussed previously) based on what is basically a 2 step movement would be

a) July VB - little movement.
b) August VB - movement to the end of 2006 or end of 2007 depending on numbers.
c) September VB - movement to final date.
d) Internally retrogress in September when visa numbers are exhausted (usually about 2 weeks before the end of the FY).

The advantage is that, in general it preserves approval in PD order and ensures that if insufficient porting cases are approved in August (CO has to set the September VB in early August) that there are sufficient numbers of "ordinary" pre-adjudicated EB2 cases that can be quickly approved to use up available numbers.

Again, the disadvantage for many is that later PDs will be Current for only one month and it will again be a lottery as to who gets approved and who doesn't before visa numbers are exhausted for the FY.

A more even 3 step movement scenario is also a possibility as are several others.

I know I have been very pessimistic today but spec when you mentioned internal retrogression I remembered I wanted to ask this question. Could it be that internally EB2I dates are currently internally retrogressed to say some date in late 2003 and they are still showing 2004. And hence even when we get SO dates will move a bit. The reason I say this is a friend of mine has a PD of August 2004 and his 485 application was made in 2011. Its still stuck with no decision. He was saying that his lawyer thinks his case is not getting touched since theres demand before him thats not been met monthly.

[MATT2012]

Thanks Spec, I was a silent reader in many forums for many years. Finally one day, I thought it is not fair of me not to contribute. I learned a lot from you. I just acknowledged the same.

Matt,

That truly is an excellent summary above.

It explains both why the conclusions have been reached and where the uncertainties lie.

If our exchanges have helped, that all good - I have benefited equally. Your praise is very generous, but unwarranted.

Ultimately, it's all a collaborative effort, but you should take full credit for this piece of work. I'll repeat it again - this really is an excellent summary.

[Spectator]

I know I have been very pessimistic today but spec when you mentioned internal retrogression I remembered I wanted to ask this question. Could it be that internally EB2I dates are currently internally retrogressed to say some date in late 2003 and they are still showing 2004. And hence even when we get SO dates will move a bit. The reason I say this is a friend of mine has a PD of August 2004 and his 485 application was made in 2011. Its still stuck with no decision. He was saying that his lawyer thinks his case is not getting touched since theres demand before him thats not been met monthly.sbhagwat2000,

My personal opinion is that would not be the case.

Internal retrogression is a last gasp tool available to the Visa Office when visa numbers run out for a period.

The most extreme example of that was last year, when EB2-IC visas ran out between the April 2012 VB being announced in early March and it coming into force on April 1.

In fact, to deliberately set a VB Cut Off Date that was later then the number of visas available would be a violation of the INA.

To date, of the 107 Trackitt EB2-I approvals, 53 have a 2003 PD and 46 have a 2004 PD. Of those, 3 have had an August 2004 PD.

[sbhagwat2000]

some more info from the same person - apparently there was no mention of FB



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: David Ware
Date: Monday, April 15, 2013
Subject: RE: [General inquiries] EB2I movement



No.

David Ware
Attorney at law
Ware|Gasparian
3850 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 555
Metairie Louisiana 70002-1752
Phone: (504) 830 5900/(800) 537 0179
Fax: (504) 830 5909
Other Locations: Baton Rouge. Jackson. Pensacola. Birmingham. Seattle
To visit our website, click on the logo below.
If you wish to make an appointment: Please call Yolanda Mata at the numbers above.





-----Original Message-----
From: info@david-ware.com [mailto:info@david-ware.com] On Behalf Of@gmail.com
Sent: Monday, April 15, 2013 2:51 PM
To: David Ware
Subject: [General inquiries] EB2I movement

shailesh bhagwat sent a message using the contact form at http://david-ware.com/contact.

Hello,

Thanks for your reply this morning regarding Charles Oppenheim's comments about EB2I movement. It is very kind of you to share details. I was a bit taken aback with the news that EBI will move only by a few weeks. The reason being in the february bulletin 18000 visas were added to the total 140000 visas that were unused family based visas from the prior year. I was thinking EB2I will get a large chunk of those visas and hence would move forward substantially. Did Mr. Oppenheim say anything specific about these extra visas going to EB2I?
Again I really appreciate your help. As you can see EB2I applicants are really suffering because of retrogression

[vizcard]

David is a really loquacious guy:D

[Spectator]

David is a really loquacious guy:Dvizcard,

LOL.

It's possible that as a result of sharing the information he had, his email is now being bombarded with requests for more info.

Let's not add to that.

On another note, assuming the meeting did take place on, or around April 6, 2013, CO was certainly aware of the extra 18k from FB. The DD and Annual Numerical Limits documents were updated in early to mid February.

Of course, the $64,000 question is whether his reply took those into account or not. If the question was not asked, which it seems clear it wasn't, then we will never know.

For me, like Matt, there is nothing further to be gained from this information as it stands.

[Vkkpnm]

I would like to see numerical/circumstantial evidence to come to any conclusion.

But coming to his calculation, he has point that EB1 has used more visas in the past, but that was before Karzarian. I am not saying it cannot happen again. Any normal logic will suggest to spillovers even before, FB SO came in.

I partly agree on EB5, it is a possible scenario given the increase in applications.

EB2 WW- There is no evidence that it is headed over 42K, this is taking into consideration around 25K already consumed.

Thanks Matt. You have kept our hopes alive.