EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[erikbond101]

erikbond101,

It isn't really if you analyse the numbers by year.

Increases in 2007 to 2010 can be attributed to cases received before May/June 2012 continuing to become preadjudicated.

Only cases in pre 2004-2006 can really be identified specifically as porting.

The first Demand Data to split the numbers back to 2004 and earlier was December 2012. Here's the monthly movement since then.

---------- 2004 -- 2005 -- 2006 -- Total
January ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 150
February ---- 0 ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 100
March ------ 25 ---- 25 ---- 50 ---- 100

Total ------ 75 --- 125 --- 150 ---- 350

That seems more consistent with either a normal fluctuation in the figures or a few cases received before June 2012 finally becoming pre-adjudicated, just as the 2007-2010 cases have been.

To me, it does not represent the numbers I would expect for all porters and is consistent with large numbers waiting for their PD to become Current.

Yes This is still on lower side or quite low.

Now if we look at Trackitt data for EB2-I approvals between Apr 12 and Feb 13:

40 approvals for PD between Jan 1999 and Sep 2004
91 approvals for PD between Oct 2004 and Dec 2007

If linear calculation can be done, EB2I has consumed all 3 months quota from Oct 13 to Jan 13 for PD before Sep 2004. (close to 700-710 visas). That means 18X more number from trackitt.
If we assume same factor for PD between Oct 04 and Dec 07 then ported numbers that are preadjudicated or waiting for it are 1638. To be on safer side we can multiply this number by 1.5 and then total will be 2457.
So can we assume and say that porting in past 8-10 months is close to 3000 before 1 Jan 2008. It seems it should be higher than that....I really am unsure about it.

[bvsamrat]

if this would be the case,I am loosing hope if any CIR or any quota increase will improve the situation? People are waiting to exploit the situation and unless the rules are strict and tighter, EB2 and in future all EBs may be tough?


I agree and I'm not trying to argue - but trying to find out the odds with this porting stuff...

I remember back in 2007 (during those substitution labor days), when the dates became current for all categories, every tom, dick and harry in these indian consulting companies got eb3 labor substituted for money, depending on the amount they were willing to pay, some even got labors dated back to 2003-2005 timeframes (the scale of money transacted was so huge that was even compared to the taxi licensing fiasco happened in New York way back). Now these are the indian consulting companies trying to port these labors in bulk becos all these guys became senior managers and directors in these companies in the past 4-5 years and have the power to influence their HRs and Visa departments to make this bulk porting (EB3 to EB2) possible...

So trying to figure out what could be the worst case #s for these porting (if we can predict/calculate). Remember there are atleast 20k+ primary applicants between the current EB3I and EB2I cutoff dates. What are the odds?

[Spectator]

Yes This is still on lower side or quite low.

Now if we look at Trackitt data for EB2-I approvals between Apr 12 and Feb 13:

40 approvals for PD between Jan 1999 and Sep 2004
91 approvals for PD between Oct 2004 and Dec 2007

If linear calculation can be done, EB2I has consumed all 3 months quota from Oct 13 to Jan 13 for PD before Sep 2004. (close to 700-710 visas). That means 18X more number from trackitt.
If we assume same factor for PD between Oct 04 and Dec 07 then ported numbers that are preadjudicated or waiting for it are 1638. To be on safer side we can multiply this number by 1.5 and then total will be 2457.
So can we assume and say that porting in past 8-10 months is close to 3000 before 1 Jan 2008. It seems it should be higher than that....I really am unsure about it.As Charles Oppenheim has found, it seems an impossible number to predict, unless USCIS release information on the numbers.

I've learnt it is almost a fruitless task to even try, since none of the assumptions can be tested.

As you correctly point out, the total number who can be approved in a FY is governed by how far the Cut Off dates move forward.

One approach is to use a figure for porters/ month /per PD year.

Using as an example only, 100 / month / PD year and eventual Cut Off Date movement to mid 2008 then:

By July 2013, 13 months will have passed since Dates became Unavailable.

September 2004 through June 2008 is 3.83 years.

Potential porting numbers becomes 100 * 13 * 3.83 = 4,975 by July 2013

Porting cases before a PD of September 2004 might use as many as 285 *9 = 2,565 by July 2013.

Total potential numbers by July 2013 = ~ 7.5k if Cut Off Date moved to 01JUL08.

That number just feels on the high side to me. It may not be. There is just no way to understand whether the assumptions made are correct, or even close to being correct, hence it is a fruitless exercise.

That's my last on porting.

[Vkkpnm]

Very disheartening to see your calculation on porting. Based on this rate of porting, what do you think the priority date will be by fy 2013.

Thanks

[Spectator]

Very disheartening to see your calculation on porting. Based on this rate of porting, what do you think the priority date will be by fy 2013.

ThanksVkkpnm,

Welcome to the forum.

It wasn't meant to be a serious calculation of porting, merely an illustration of how difficult it is to do and the futility of trying, with the information currently available. The number per month per year could equally be 20 or 200 - there's no way of knowing.

[geeaarpee]

Vkkpnm,

Welcome to the forum.

It wasn't meant to be a serious calculation of porting, merely an illustration of how difficult it is to do and the futility of trying, with the information currently available. The number per month per year could equally be 20 or 200 - there's no way of knowing.

Spec,

Is there a way you can put together a matrix with a minimum and maximum porting #s that you think will be and the corresponding PD movement by FY 2013 could be ? Something like below?

For 20/month/pd year - say Jul 2008
For 40/month/pd year - say Jan 2008
...
For 200/month/pd year - say Sep 2004 etc...

Without an idea on this porting, all the calculations in Page 1 may end up being just a prediction... May be too much to ask - sorry, trying to see if there could be any insight on this porting stuff?

[Vkkpnm]

Vkkpnm,

Welcome to the forum.

It wasn't meant to be a serious calculation of porting, merely an illustration of how difficult it is to do and the futility of trying, with the information currently available. The number per month per year could equally be 20 or 200 - there's no way of knowing.

Thanks Spectator for quick response. Wondering cannt we determine EB3 to EB2 porting rate based on approval/demand data of year 2004 and below?

I am very novice on this subject, so please ignore if I have asked irrelevant question.

Thanks

[SeekingGC2013]

Is there any way we can know these porting numbers in the next few months visa Bulletings? as to what maginitude they are in? and predict the movement after 2 months how it would look like?

@Spec - When do you think you would get a better idea - (May, June or July 2013) in terms of cut off dates in Q4 FY2013?


Vkkpnm,

Welcome to the forum.

It wasn't meant to be a serious calculation of porting, merely an illustration of how difficult it is to do and the futility of trying, with the information currently available. The number per month per year could equally be 20 or 200 - there's no way of knowing.

[bvsamrat]

This information not available to whom? USCIS or CO or us. It might take very little time for USCIS to find out all approved I40s who requested interfiling as of any month? Why they are not doing it? or not been asked to find out? This beats me. If this helps to streamline the process, then why they are not trying to find out?. Future can be difficult to predict but not the past?

Sorry I am not trying to underestimate your great efforts!


Vkkpnm,

Welcome to the forum.

It wasn't meant to be a serious calculation of porting, merely an illustration of how difficult it is to do and the futility of trying, with the information currently available. The number per month per year could equally be 20 or 200 - there's no way of knowing.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey All

this was posted on another blog and the numbers are confusing when compared to Spec, Q & Veni's numbers on page1. can you please clarify this number crunching?

Earlier this month, DOS updated the Visa Statistics links, thus giving the official FY 2012 numbers.

According to this, these are the number of Green Cards EB2-India folks have got:

FY 2012 -- 19,726
FY 2011 -- 23,997
FY 2010 -- 19,961
FY 2009 -- 10,106
FY 2008 -- 14,806

In FY 2012, these are the numbers:


EB4 -- 7,478
EB5 -- 7,641
EB1 -- 39,387
EB2 -- 50,593
EB3 -- 39,549
Total -- 144,648

Generally, the spillover works this way --> EB4 to EB5 to EB1 to EB2. In EB2 , all the EB2 ROW excess numbers going to EB2 India and China. Also, the law is in such a way that numbers has to go to most demand country. So, EB2 India will get all the spill overs till it reaches EB2 China PD date. Then, they will go hand in hand.

Let us do some extrapolation. Lets assume there will be about 300 porting per month. So, it will be 3600 there for full FY 2013. Also, from the above data EB2 - India has got about 39% of total EB2 numbers.

I think the best case scenario will be, if EB2 India gets the same as last year about 20,000. In this case, the PD will go as far as 01-AUG-09 in Sept VB, based on the Jan inventory data. But, from various lawfirm websites we are hearing that this is not possible -- as EB5 demand, EB1 demand and EB2 ROW has increased tremendously. If we assume, there is same number of immigrant visas are given for EB4 and if EB2 India gets about 25% of total EB2 number (45,188), with spillover total EB2 India will be about 15,000. This will make the PD move to 01-APR-08. I feel this is more optimal and can happen. According to me, the worst case scenario will be, EB2 India getting 15% of the total EB2 number. This still will bring the number to about 10,000 and moving the dates to 01-JAN-08 by Sept 2013 Visa Bulletin.

Of course, there are lot of assumptions here as in the number of porting, EB4 demand staying the same and EB2 ROW's spillover. We need to wait and watch how it spans out.




Spec - I agree with everything you said here. But then none of that really addresses what I was referring to - which is:
Backlog of Indians applications is part due to DoS' policy of having such backlog continue. A case in point was the way visa spillover rules were interpreted until AC21 which changed the visa spillover from vertical to horizontal. Second case in point is as I said the way ROW was flushed between 2007-2009. Third even tody we don't see quarterly spillover as required by law. These are very specific things and probably you would agree that DoS apparently acted in a manner that hurt EB-IC backlog.

But I will rest it too since you already did.

[geeaarpee]

I think Porting is a bigger concern as we will get atleast 12-15k SOFAD (including FB spillovers), but the 300/month assumption should be for the # of porting cases and not the # of visas. The # of visas should be atleast 2.5 times the ported cases - So it should be atleast 750/month - making it 9000 total visas - now CO's original comment of early-mid 2007 comes to my mind...


Hey All

this was posted on another blog and the numbers are confusing when compared to Spec, Q & Veni's numbers on page1. can you please clarify this number crunching?

Earlier this month, DOS updated the Visa Statistics links, thus giving the official FY 2012 numbers.

According to this, these are the number of Green Cards EB2-India folks have got:

FY 2012 -- 19,726
FY 2011 -- 23,997
FY 2010 -- 19,961
FY 2009 -- 10,106
FY 2008 -- 14,806

In FY 2012, these are the numbers:


EB4 -- 7,478
EB5 -- 7,641
EB1 -- 39,387
EB2 -- 50,593
EB3 -- 39,549
Total -- 144,648

Generally, the spillover works this way --> EB4 to EB5 to EB1 to EB2. In EB2 , all the EB2 ROW excess numbers going to EB2 India and China. Also, the law is in such a way that numbers has to go to most demand country. So, EB2 India will get all the spill overs till it reaches EB2 China PD date. Then, they will go hand in hand.

Let us do some extrapolation. Lets assume there will be about 300 porting per month. So, it will be 3600 there for full FY 2013. Also, from the above data EB2 - India has got about 39% of total EB2 numbers.

I think the best case scenario will be, if EB2 India gets the same as last year about 20,000. In this case, the PD will go as far as 01-AUG-09 in Sept VB, based on the Jan inventory data. But, from various lawfirm websites we are hearing that this is not possible -- as EB5 demand, EB1 demand and EB2 ROW has increased tremendously. If we assume, there is same number of immigrant visas are given for EB4 and if EB2 India gets about 25% of total EB2 number (45,188), with spillover total EB2 India will be about 15,000. This will make the PD move to 01-APR-08. I feel this is more optimal and can happen. According to me, the worst case scenario will be, EB2 India getting 15% of the total EB2 number. This still will bring the number to about 10,000 and moving the dates to 01-JAN-08 by Sept 2013 Visa Bulletin.

Of course, there are lot of assumptions here as in the number of porting, EB4 demand staying the same and EB2 ROW's spillover. We need to wait and watch how it spans out.

[vizcard]

I think Porting is a bigger concern as we will get atleast 12-15k SOFAD (including FB spillovers), but the 300/month assumption should be for the # of porting cases and not the # of visas. The # of visas should be atleast 2.5 times the ported cases - So it should be atleast 750/month - making it 9000 total visas - now CO's original comment of early-mid 2007 comes to my mind...


That's an interesting point. Porting happens with a 140. So the question is are there 300 I140s per month or I485s? My sense (hope) is that it's somewhere in between. But my advice to everyone is don't get hung up on porting numbers as there is just no publicly available info. It is noted as a risk.

FWIW I'm pinning my hopes on CIR.

[geeaarpee]

That's an interesting point. Porting happens with a 140. So the question is are there 300 I140s per month or I485s? My sense (hope) is that it's somewhere in between. But my advice to everyone is don't get hung up on porting numbers as there is just no publicly available info. It is noted as a risk.

FWIW I'm pinning my hopes on CIR.

There are 300+ I-140 approvals there for sure but we don't know whether they are porting or not? We won't know until the forward movement of dates (I know it is a well known fact!). The delay in moving dates is gonna be good for everyone for different reasons becos CO will be forced to move it well ahead even to late '08 and there is a chance for more people to avail EAD/AP benefits (ofcourse for those who missed last year and before). But it will again becomes a lottery and the low hanging fruits will get the benefit like last year.

[Vkkpnm]

Cant we determine porting rate based on eb2 approval/DD for PD 2004 or lower since Jun12 when dates were retrogressed ?

[geeaarpee]

Cant we determine porting rate based on eb2 approval/DD for PD 2004 or lower since Jun12 when dates were retrogressed ?

As Spec and other gurus mentioned earlier, it is a futile exercise - the best thing for CO and every EB2I would be to keep it at the same date until the last month of FY13 and make it current for EB2I for that one last month. This way it becomes a pure lottery - EB1, EB2 or EB3 - in the current terms nothing is superior (every category is exploited badly) - give it to luck and whoever is lucky will get the GC - atleast everyone will get the EAD/AP benefits.

[SeekingGC2013]

Is this a correct assumtion below

FB Visa - 13K to EB2IN
SOFAD - 5k to EB2IN
Quota - 3.2K

Total - 21k - (7K Porting) This would make dates move into June 2008 - is this calculation valid? any hidden variables? please clarify


As Spec and other gurus mentioned earlier, it is a futile exercise - the best thing for CO and every EB2I would be to keep it at the same date until the last month of FY13 and make it current for EB2I for that one last month. This way it becomes a pure lottery - EB1, EB2 or EB3 - in the current terms nothing is superior (every category is exploited badly) - give it to luck and whoever is lucky will get the GC - atleast everyone will get the EAD/AP benefits.

[Spectator]

Is this a correct assumtion below

FB Visa - 13K to EB2IN
SOFAD - 5k to EB2IN
Quota - 3.2K

Total - 21k - (7K Porting) This would make dates move into June 2008 - is this calculation valid? any hidden variables? please clarifySeekingGC2013,

I personally believe the figure of 13k to EB2-I is too high. You are also double counting the amount directly to EB2-I of 0.4k (2.8+0.4=3.2), since that is already part of your 13k.

Here's how I see the allocation of the 18k and how many would likely be available to EB2-I.

The numbers potentially NOT available to EB2-I are:

EB2-C ---- 360 (guaranteed not available)
EB2-WW - 4,428 (360+360+3,708) (EB2-WW will use likely use this allocation due to being retrogressed last year.)
EB3 ---- 5,148 (not available by law)

Total -- 9,936 extra likely to be NOT available to EB2-I due to extra FB visas.

The numbers potentially available to EB2-I are:

EB1 ---- 5,148 (via spillover)
EB2-I ---- 360 (the only guaranteed amount)
EB4 ---- 1,278 (via spillover)
EB5 ---- 1,278 (via spillover)

Total -- 8,064 extra likely to be available to EB2-I due to extra FB visas.

Adding the normal allocation of 2,803 gives a total of 10,867.

In addition, you would have to account for the spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 net of the extra FB visas included above. I think that is the 5k in your calculation.

EB also received FB visas last year. Stripping away that effect gives the net spillover (i.e.corrected to 140k EB visas)

EB1 ----- 653
EB4 --- 2,462
EB5 --- 2,299

Total - 5,414 net spillover in FY2012 (excludes FB effect)

As they say, past performance etc etc., but EB5 is very likely to use more visas in FY2013. EB1 is the big unknown IMO.

As an extra little complication, EB2-China are possibly entitled to 7% of any Fall Down from EB1 (there was a previous discussion about it). To illustrate this, of the 5,414 that fell down in FY2012, EB2-C would have received 379 of that total. For the sake of simplicity, you can ignore that in your calculations if you wish, but it equates to 1k per 14.3k of Fall Down. A net FD of 5k implies gross FD of 12.7k.

Assuming by SOFAD, you actually mean net Fall Down from EB1 of 5k, the simplified version of your calculation IMO would be

FB Visa ------------------ 8.1k to EB2IN
NET FD FROM EB1 ---------- 5.0k to EB2IN
Quota -------------------- 2.8k

Total ------------------- 15.9k
LESS PORTING ------------ (7.0k)

AVAILABLE NET OF PORTING - 8.9k

It would be 4.2k higher, if you believe EB2-WW will not use any of the extra FB visas available to them i.e. they use no more than 34.4k in FY2013.

I hope I have understood correctly.

[SeekingGC2013]

@Spec - thanks a lot for detailed explanantion.
So the big factors which would play a role in PD's moving into Mid 2008 are EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 WW Demand in the next 6 mons? And also if the Porting cases are around 7K? Is that a correct assumption.

If so when would be an appropriate time to find out the trend of those variables?

thanks


SeekingGC2013,

I personally believe the figure of 13k to EB2-I is too high. You are also double counting the amount directly to EB2-I of 0.4k (2.8+0.4=3.2), since that is already part of your 13k.

Here's how I see the allocation of the 18k and how many would likely be available to EB2-I.

The numbers potentially NOT available to EB2-I are:

EB2-C ---- 360 (guaranteed not available)
EB2-WW - 4,428 (360+360+3,708) (EB2-WW will use likely use this allocation due to being retrogressed last year.)
EB3 ---- 5,148 (not available by law)

Total -- 9,936 extra likely to be NOT available to EB2-I due to extra FB visas.

The numbers potentially available to EB2-I are:

EB1 ---- 5,148 (via spillover)
EB2-I ---- 360 (the only guaranteed amount)
EB4 ---- 1,278 (via spillover)
EB5 ---- 1,278 (via spillover)

Total -- 8,064 extra likely to be available to EB2-I due to extra FB visas.

Adding the normal allocation of 2,803 gives a total of 10,867.

In addition, you would have to account for the spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 net of the extra FB visas included above. I think that is the 5k in your calculation.

EB also received FB visas last year. Stripping away that effect gives the net spillover (i.e.corrected to 140k EB visas)

EB1 ----- 653
EB4 --- 2,462
EB5 --- 2,299

Total - 5,414 net spillover in FY2012 (excludes FB effect)

As they say, past performance etc etc., but EB5 is very likely to use more visas in FY2013. EB1 is the big unknown IMO.

As an extra little complication, EB2-China are possibly entitled to 7% of any Fall Down from EB1 (there was a previous discussion about it). To illustrate this, of the 5,414 that fell down in FY2012, EB2-C would have received 379 of that total. For the sake of simplicity, you can ignore that in your calculations if you wish, but it equates to 1k per 14.3k of Fall Down. A net FD of 5k implies gross FD of 12.7k.

Assuming by SOFAD, you actually mean net Fall Down from EB1 of 5k, the simplified version of your calculation IMO would be

FB Visa ------------------ 8.1k to EB2IN
NET FD FROM EB1 ---------- 5.0k to EB2IN
Quota -------------------- 2.8k

Total ------------------- 15.9k
LESS PORTING ------------ (7.0k)

AVAILABLE NET OF PORTING - 8.9k

It would be 4.2k higher, if you believe EB2-WW will not use any of the extra FB visas available to them i.e. they use no more than 34.4k in FY2013.

I hope I have understood correctly.

[ChampU]

Spec,

As usual, great post.. I agree with your estimation of 7k/year towards porting.

However, if dates do not move until Q4, do you think 7k applications would be processed in-time to award the visas before the dates move back again?

Do you think there would be gradual movement or one big time movement ?

[GCKnowHow]

I too think porting is huge. Someone should take a look at this porting and set some streamlining procedures in place. Something like PD or Date on which the eligiblity to EB2 was reached, which ever is later. This way people filing in EB3 as a place holder untill they get EB2 eligibility and then porting.... can be stopped. Im not sure if porting takes care of these situations already, with what i've heard so far no such exists. (Im not an expert, i may be wrong)


I think Porting is a bigger concern as we will get atleast 12-15k SOFAD (including FB spillovers), but the 300/month assumption should be for the # of porting cases and not the # of visas. The # of visas should be atleast 2.5 times the ported cases - So it should be atleast 750/month - making it 9000 total visas - now CO's original comment of early-mid 2007 comes to my mind...

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey Spec

In the below Calclation - what about Spiilover from EB4 & EB5 - your calculation on Page1 shows another 4.5K SO from EB4&EB5 - is that added looks like total visas would be 20K as you predicted earlier.

FB Visa ------------------ 8.1k to EB2IN
NET FD FROM EB1 ---------- 5.0k to EB2IN
Quota -------------------- 2.8k

Total ------------------- 15.9k



SeekingGC2013,

I personally believe the figure of 13k to EB2-I is too high. You are also double counting the amount directly to EB2-I of 0.4k (2.8+0.4=3.2), since that is already part of your 13k.

Here's how I see the allocation of the 18k and how many would likely be available to EB2-I.

The numbers potentially NOT available to EB2-I are:

EB2-C ---- 360 (guaranteed not available)
EB2-WW - 4,428 (360+360+3,708) (EB2-WW will use likely use this allocation due to being retrogressed last year.)
EB3 ---- 5,148 (not available by law)

Total -- 9,936 extra likely to be NOT available to EB2-I due to extra FB visas.

The numbers potentially available to EB2-I are:

EB1 ---- 5,148 (via spillover)
EB2-I ---- 360 (the only guaranteed amount)
EB4 ---- 1,278 (via spillover)
EB5 ---- 1,278 (via spillover)

Total -- 8,064 extra likely to be available to EB2-I due to extra FB visas.

Adding the normal allocation of 2,803 gives a total of 10,867.

In addition, you would have to account for the spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 net of the extra FB visas included above. I think that is the 5k in your calculation.

EB also received FB visas last year. Stripping away that effect gives the net spillover (i.e.corrected to 140k EB visas)

EB1 ----- 653
EB4 --- 2,462
EB5 --- 2,299

Total - 5,414 net spillover in FY2012 (excludes FB effect)

As they say, past performance etc etc., but EB5 is very likely to use more visas in FY2013. EB1 is the big unknown IMO.

As an extra little complication, EB2-China are possibly entitled to 7% of any Fall Down from EB1 (there was a previous discussion about it). To illustrate this, of the 5,414 that fell down in FY2012, EB2-C would have received 379 of that total. For the sake of simplicity, you can ignore that in your calculations if you wish, but it equates to 1k per 14.3k of Fall Down. A net FD of 5k implies gross FD of 12.7k.

Assuming by SOFAD, you actually mean net Fall Down from EB1 of 5k, the simplified version of your calculation IMO would be

FB Visa ------------------ 8.1k to EB2IN
NET FD FROM EB1 ---------- 5.0k to EB2IN
Quota -------------------- 2.8k

Total ------------------- 15.9k
LESS PORTING ------------ (7.0k)

AVAILABLE NET OF PORTING - 8.9k

It would be 4.2k higher, if you believe EB2-WW will not use any of the extra FB visas available to them i.e. they use no more than 34.4k in FY2013.

I hope I have understood correctly.

[erikbond101]

SeekingGC2013,

I personally believe the figure of 13k to EB2-I is too high. You are also double counting the amount directly to EB2-I of 0.4k (2.8+0.4=3.2), since that is already part of your 13k.

Here's how I see the allocation of the 18k and how many would likely be available to EB2-I.

The numbers potentially NOT available to EB2-I are:

EB2-C ---- 360 (guaranteed not available)
EB2-WW - 4,428 (360+360+3,708) (EB2-WW will use likely use this allocation due to being retrogressed last year.)
EB3 ---- 5,148 (not available by law)

Total -- 9,936 extra likely to be NOT available to EB2-I due to extra FB visas.

The numbers potentially available to EB2-I are:

EB1 ---- 5,148 (via spillover)
EB2-I ---- 360 (the only guaranteed amount)
EB4 ---- 1,278 (via spillover)
EB5 ---- 1,278 (via spillover)

Total -- 8,064 extra likely to be available to EB2-I due to extra FB visas.

Adding the normal allocation of 2,803 gives a total of 10,867.

In addition, you would have to account for the spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 net of the extra FB visas included above. I think that is the 5k in your calculation.

EB also received FB visas last year. Stripping away that effect gives the net spillover (i.e.corrected to 140k EB visas)

EB1 ----- 653
EB4 --- 2,462
EB5 --- 2,299

Total - 5,414 net spillover in FY2012 (excludes FB effect)

As they say, past performance etc etc., but EB5 is very likely to use more visas in FY2013. EB1 is the big unknown IMO.

As an extra little complication, EB2-China are possibly entitled to 7% of any Fall Down from EB1 (there was a previous discussion about it). To illustrate this, of the 5,414 that fell down in FY2012, EB2-C would have received 379 of that total. For the sake of simplicity, you can ignore that in your calculations if you wish, but it equates to 1k per 14.3k of Fall Down. A net FD of 5k implies gross FD of 12.7k.

Assuming by SOFAD, you actually mean net Fall Down from EB1 of 5k, the simplified version of your calculation IMO would be

FB Visa ------------------ 8.1k to EB2IN
NET FD FROM EB1 ---------- 5.0k to EB2IN
Quota -------------------- 2.8k

Total ------------------- 15.9k
LESS PORTING ------------ (7.0k)

AVAILABLE NET OF PORTING - 8.9k

It would be 4.2k higher, if you believe EB2-WW will not use any of the extra FB visas available to them i.e. they use no more than 34.4k in FY2013.

I hope I have understood correctly.

With assumption of 7K porting numbers till June 2008 and SOFAD number at 16K, I do not think we will be able to see 2nd quarter of 2008.
Demand data has 7300 number till 1 Jan 2008 and Jan08-Mar08 has additional 4.7 K pending I-1485. So total demand is 12K till March08. If we will take porting into consideration that will add another 6K till Mar08. (at max but to be optimistic it will be 3K ) Here we are assuming that none of 7K ported numbers are counted towards demand data.
Now to reach march 08..we need spillover of 15K-18K. Another thing we are also considering that regular quota of 2.8K will all be consumed before Sept 2004 porters.

Spec any comments??

[Kanmani]

SeekingGC2013,

The Net Spillover includes the EB4 + EB5 goes to EB1 and comes down to EB2 as NET, just like Spec explained below how we got last year




EB1 ----- 653
EB4 --- 2,462
EB5 --- 2,299

Total - 5,414 net spillover in FY2012 (excludes FB effect)

Thanks Spec, for this crystal clear explanation.

[SeekingGC2013]

erikbond
DD before March 2008 - 10800
DD before May 2008 - 13700

So with Porting at 5K (assumption) - SOFAD at 16K - it might move into Apr 2008. Again if quota is not used before Sept 2004 - it can move into Q2


With assumption of 7K porting numbers till June 2008 and SOFAD number at 16K, I do not think we will be able to see 2nd quarter of 2008.
Demand data has 7300 number till 1 Jan 2008 and Jan08-Mar08 has additional 4.7 K pending I-1485. So total demand is 12K till March08. If we will take porting into consideration that will add another 6K till Mar08. (at max but to be optimistic it will be 3K ) Here we are assuming that none of 7K ported numbers are counted towards demand data.
Now to reach march 08..we need spillover of 15K-18K. Another thing we are also considering that regular quota of 2.8K will all be consumed before Sept 2004 porters.

Spec any comments??

[SeekingGC2013]

Kanmani

Thank you - im new to this Forum - trying to the details of these calculations.
SO NET Spillover on 1st page as SPEC predicted - he said would be around 15.8k + quota 3K = 19K for EB2I - is that true?
If so - with 6K porting - dates should move into 2008 Q2 - am i wrong/?


SeekingGC2013,

The Net Spillover includes the EB4 + EB5 goes to EB1 and comes down to EB2 as NET, just like Spec explained below how we got last year

[geeaarpee]

If we will take porting into consideration that will add another 6K till Mar08. (at max but to be optimistic it will be 3K )

erikbond101 - Porters should increase exponentially (atleast not progressively) as we move the dates beyond 2007. Even between the 2005-2007/08, I believe, USCIS sees a number of porting cases and thats why they set the cut-off dates at Sep2004. I even believe porters should increase exponentially after April 2005, becos, till then the RIR and TR (non-RIR) processes were a pain to get a labor approved and not many people are left in the GC queue anymore (either they got GCs, ported already or left the country :)) - remember the Perm labor changed the picture altogether, even with Perm the initial few months (Apr-Jun'05) the employers and attorneys were reluctant to file and once they see labor approvals in 60 days, they started filing in mass and the EB3 demand data reflects that. This whole thing caused USCIS to put an end on the substitution labor stuff but I strongly believe that back-fired them with this huge backlog - but the other side they are milking money - earlier there used to be one labor - it either gets used or sustituted, now it gets used or wasted. Wastage is good for USCIS, because for the same guy another labor will be filed by another employer.

So my point is, 3k is very low - should be atleast double that number in reality, especially if you are looking at date movements beyond late 2007.

[Spectator]

Spec,

As usual, great post.. I agree with your estimation of 7k/year towards porting.

However, if dates do not move until Q4, do you think 7k applications would be processed in-time to award the visas before the dates move back again?

Do you think there would be gradual movement or one big time movement ?ChampU,

A slight correction. It is SeekingGC2013's estimate. I deliberately did not say what I think the number is - I am still thinking about it. But considering FY2013 will have 12 + 4 months worth of porting, it is going to be higher than normal.


Hey Spec

In the below Calclation - what about Spiilover from EB4 & EB5 - your calculation on Page1 shows another 4.5K SO from EB4&EB5 - is that added looks like total visas would be 20K as you predicted earlier.

FB Visa ------------------ 8.1k to EB2IN
NET FD FROM EB1 ---------- 5.0k to EB2IN
Quota -------------------- 2.8k

Total ------------------- 15.9kSeekingGC2013,

Well it is your calculation. The 5k in the above is NET Fall down From EB1. Since you didn't show EB4 and EB5 separately I have to assume you included it. Gross Fall Down would be that 5k plus 1.3 plus 1.3 (1.3k extra FB visas EB4 & EB5 received) plus 5.1k (extra FB visas that EB1 received) to total 12.7k gross spillover. In your calculation above those 7.7 extra visas are already included in 8.1k FB Visa figure. The difference to 8.1k is the 0.4k that EB2-I receive automatically.

The figures on the first page are gross spillover (i.e includes the extra FB numbers to each Category).

So EB4 represents 8k usage - approx 2k net spillover plus 1.3k from FB.

Similarly, EB5 represents full usage of the original allocation, leaving only the extra 1.3k extra from FB.

EB1 represents 35k usage, which is 5k net spillover plus 5.1 extra from FB. The extra is a rounding and calculation error.

etc

I hope that explains it.

As I note at the bottom of the last update, things have moved on since it was originally written.

Edit:- PS Thanks Kanmani. Beat me to it with much more succinct post.

[Kanmani]

SeekingGC2013,

I hope that Spec's 1st page prediction comes true , With ongoing discussions like this he is becoming stingier by cutting numbers post by post :)

Spec, people are reading your posts everywhere all around and passing your findings,calculations to DOS . Spec, Pls give us more !

[Kanmani]

I think I got confused again.

Spec, 21K sofad or 15.9K ?

[Spectator]

I think I got confused again. Spec, are you standing by your 21K sofad and rewriting SeekinGC2013's 15.9 your way? Buzz......Kanmani,

Sorry about that.

The original first page post is outdated and too optimistic. I didn't realise some of the finer points that have emerged since it was originally written. I've only really left it there as history.

Roughly speaking I am somewhere at about 17k total visas for EB2-I currently. I am allowing 2k more spillover than SeekinGC2013 but also allowing for EB2-C to receive an additional 1k visas.

With EB2-C receiving about 4k, that would be 21k total SOFAD.

The real problem is that I don't have a good grasp of how many visas EB1 are likely to use (so I am effectively guessing) or the number of porting cases that will actually be approved before the end of FY2013. Plus, I don't have a good estimate of how many case might become Current but not actually be approved before the FY ends. I tend to call those "left behind". All these factors will impact how far the dates can move.

There are too many variables and not enough information to be other than fairly general. Really, that's why I can't give a very good prediction. As you suggest, I can be rather good at being pessimistic and 18k has already reduced to 8k for EB2-I as far as the FB visas are concerned!!

[gkjppp]

Spec told clearly
19.8
I think I got confused again.

Spec, 21K sofad or 15.9K ?

[Kanmani]

Spec,

I'll take that 17k from you.

We optimistic group would like to add those 4.4k from EB2 WW and still look for something more too. ( Just like we use to pray for Indian cricket team getting a spot in the World Cup QF , merely not by winning, in a way expecting the other strong teams to lose within the pool. Jaihind!)

Lets wait and see.

[SmileBaba]

Murthy posted AILA news today (dated March,01, 2013):
http://www.murthy.com/2013/03/01/aila-insights-into-visa-bulletin-cutoff-dates/

Spec:Buddy, you are now cutting hope down post by post. :) Can we expect 2007 EB2I to be cleared by end of Sept. 2013?

[Spectator]

Spec,

I'll take that 17k from you.

We optimistic group would like to add those 4.4k from EB2 WW and still look for something more too. ( Just like we use to pray for Indian cricket team getting a spot in the World Cup QF , merely not by winning, in a way expecting the other strong teams to lose within the pool. Jaihind!)

Lets wait and see.Kanmani,

LOL.

Here's the things that I'm thinking about now (if anyone is remotely interested).

EB1

Clearly the 25.2k approvals in FY2011 were low due to Kazarian.

Logically, if cases were delayed because of that, EB1 approvals in FY2012 should have been high.

So what does a normal post-Kazarian year look like? Again, logically it might be somewhere in between.

Pre Kazarian, EB1 used 41k in both FY2009 and FY2010.

A straight average of FY2011 and FY2012 would give 32.3k, which would be a drop of 21% from pre-Kazarian days. That is a lot when you consider that EB1A and EB1B only represent 40-50% of total EB1 approvals. Is it realistic?

Then, there is the EB1C issue. EB1C approvals appear to be increasing (difficult to tell exactly how much) and are immune from Kazarian. EB1-I approvals increased 108% in FY2012 over FY2011. Even compared to FY2010 they were 41% higher. What is the reason?

EB4

Prior to FY2011, EB4 usually used their entire allocation. In FY2011, concurrent filing for Religious Workers was withdrawn part way through the year, hence it was not surprising to see the approvals drop that FY.

I was surprised that approvals were still low in FY2012. Instead, the backlog of I-360 cases has continued to rise.

My worry is that if USCIS decide to reduce that backlog, we are going to see a return to full use of EB4 visas, remembering that Religious Workers now need an approved I-360 to submit an I-485.

EB5

From the trend over the past few years and the I-526 receipt numbers, we should expect EB5 to reach around 10k in FY2013.

The backlog of I-526 cases continues to increase. There is no concurrent filing for EB5, but 87% are Consular Processed anyway.

EB5 has had some problems recently with the "Tenant Occupancy" methodology for determining job creation numbers. This has probably had a depressing influence on numbers so far this year.


For every Category that might produce Fall Down to EB2, there are questions, questions and more questions. Nothing is obvious.

CO has better visibility on these issues for sure, but I think even for him, it is going to be very difficult to release any potential Fall Down until July 2013 at the earliest.

[qesehmk]

This is very useful despite greenspan-speak from CO (unlike ben bernanke, alan greenspan used to deliver info and let markets struggle to decipher it).

So here is the bottomline that I understood and my opinion thereof in parentheses:

1. EB1 - excess numbers from other countries will ensure EB1 IC won't be retrogressed. (IMHO EB1 by itself will barely provide 1K to EB2. So expect EB1 to pass through the entire spillover it receives from EB4/5).
2. EB5 - 75% more demand than previous year. How still no retro for EB5C. (Last year demand was 7.8K. 75% more is 13K. With FB spillover the limit will be 11K. So expect no sofad. It's a wonder that EB5C is not retrogressed).
3. EB4 - (CO skipped this one. But expect 3K sofad max here consistent with prior year).
4. EB2 - 1100 porting in EB2ICMP in december alone.(Full year that would be 13K. However, not all is pre 2004. Nor all is not EB2IC. But the biggest hint CO provides is that pre 2004 will possibly reach limit i.e. 2.8K. My rough guess is - if EB3I is giving 2.8K over 19 months (Nov 2002 - Sep 2004) then we should expect equal numbers between Sep 2004 - Sep 2008. Rounding out - 6K is a reasonable number to expect until Mid 2008 for EB2IC.

So all in all - all of this is quite in line with the thought that EB2IC will - other than FB spillover - will receive a very small SOFAD which together with regular EB2I quota we should expect to cover most of the EB2I porting alone. So we should apply FB spillover (12K in my judgement) to oct 485 inventory which then should bring EB2I date to Apr 2008 only. Sorry to be this pessimistic... but that's the only reasonable conclusion we can get from this. I guess if there is ANY upside to this prediction - the only place it can come from is EB5.


Murthy posted AILA news today (dated March,01, 2013):
http://www.murthy.com/2013/03/01/aila-insights-into-visa-bulletin-cutoff-dates/

Spec:Buddy, you are now cutting hope down post by post. :) Can we expect 2007 EB2I to be cleared by end of Sept. 2013?

[qesehmk]

Spec - you can reduce your uncertainty about EB1 like this:

A = 2012 actual EB1 usage
E = 2013 Estimated EB1 usage
F2011 - 485 EB1 inventory on 1st Oct 2011
F2012 - 485 EB1 inventory on 1st Oct 2012

E = A + F2012 - F2011

You can make this a bit more accurate by introducing denial rate D (5% may be?)

E = (A / (1-D) + F2012-F2011) * (1-D)

[Kanmani]

4. EB2 - 1100 porting in EB2ICMP in december alone.

Q, those 1100 were EB3 WW porters

[Spectator]

Q, those 1100 were EB3 WW portersKanmani,

True.

It isn't a very useful number. It contains 2011 PD and normal non-porting cases with a PD of 2011 would be expected.

[Spectator]

Spec - you can reduce your uncertainty about EB1 like this:

A = 2012 actual EB1 usage
E = 2013 Estimated EB1 usage
F2011 - 485 EB1 inventory on 1st Oct 2011
F2012 - 485 EB1 inventory on 1st Oct 2012

E = A + F2012 - F2011

You can make this a bit more accurate by introducing denial rate D (5% may be?)

E = (A / (1-D) + F2012-F2011) * (1-D)Q,

Thanks for the suggestion, but I don't think that works because the USCIS Inventory only contains a small subset (I-485 with I-140 already approved) of the total numbers.

That works fine for a Category or Country that is generally quite retrogressed, because in time all the I-140 are approved.

For Categories or Countries that are usually Current, the USCIS Inventory totally understates the true numbers.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Kanmani - I misread it as all areas except worldwide ie. ICMP.
That correction actually solves a big hunch I always had in EB2ROW demand. EB2ROW demand always showed much more than what the labor data would indicate. So 13K is the ROW porting in EB2. That's interesting.
On another note - I would still be comfortable at 6K porting for EB2I prior to mid 2008.

Q, those 1100 were EB3 WW porters


Q,

Thanks for the suggestion, but I don't think that works because the USCIS Inventory only contains a small subset (I-485 with I-140 already approved) of the total numbers.

That works fine for a Category or Country that is generally quite retrogressed, because in time all the I-140 are approved.

For Categories or Countries that are usually Current, the USCIS Inventory totally understates the true numbers.
Spec - for EB1 inventory is actually a snapshot - so a much smaller subset. However if you think about it the formula gives pretty accurate demand for EB1 except the CP inventory. In fact one can modify F2012 and F2011 to include NVC numbers and the formula becomes perfect. I wouldn't worry about pending 140 with the assumption that both years exhibited similar 140 behavior (approval and denial rate and flowthrough rate).

[gc_soon]

Thanks Kanmani - I misread it as all areas except worldwide ie. ICMP.
That correction actually solves a big hunch I always had in EB2ROW demand. EB2ROW demand always showed much more than what the labor data would indicate. So 13K is the ROW porting in EB2. That's interesting.
On another note - I would still be comfortable at 6K porting for EB2I prior to mid 2008.


Wow. 13K WW porters? That's huge. Not sure if that's been increasing (like porting from EB3-I) That might reduce the spill from EB2ROW to EB2-I?

[qesehmk]

Yes of course it must be increasing. EB3ROW never had any pains. Their pain started when the vertical spillovers became horizontal (around 2007?). Thus EB3ROW was deprived of the huge spillover from EB4/5/1/2. And EB2IC started receiving it. So obviously an EB3ROW candidate will do what an EB3IC candidate will do - port. What's surprising is that the volume of EB3I is comparable to EB3ROW (at least when looking at 485 cases). Yes the porting in ROW is 2-3 times more than EB3I. That would be interesting.

Anyway ... but this fact doesn't alter EB2IC fate because these numbers are already baked into EB2ROW demand. It was just a mystery why there was a disconnect between PERM and visa usage for EB2ROW.

Wow. 13K WW porters? That's huge. Not sure if that's been increasing (like porting from EB3-I) That might reduce the spill from EB2ROW to EB2-I?

[gc_soon]

Anyway ... but this fact doesn't alter EB2IC fate because these numbers are already baked into EB2ROW demand. It was just a mystery why there was a disconnect between PERM and visa usage for EB2ROW.
Thanks for the clarification Q.

[suninphx]

Yes of course it must be increasing. EB3ROW never had any pains. Their pain started when the vertical spillovers became horizontal (around 2007?). Thus EB3ROW was deprived of the huge spillover from EB4/5/1/2. And EB2IC started receiving it. So obviously an EB3ROW candidate will do what an EB3IC candidate will do - port. What's surprising is that the volume of EB3I is comparable to EB3ROW (at least when looking at 485 cases). Yes the porting in ROW is 2-3 times more than EB3I. That would be interesting.

Anyway ... but this fact doesn't alter EB2IC fate because these numbers are already baked into EB2ROW demand. It was just a mystery why there was a disconnect between PERM and visa usage for EB2ROW.

IMO - HR3012 also would have contributed to increased EB3ROW porting. If HR3012 would have become law then EB3 ROW would have felt most impact.

[Spectator]

I already have an analysis of Trackitt approvals for EB2-ROW over the period FY2011, FY2012 and FY2013 to date which I have mentioned before.

That shows that porting cases in normal EB2-ROW have varied from 13.3% in FY2011 to 9.8% in FY2012 and FY2013 to date. NIW has virtually no porting cases.

As I have said previously, there are other reasons why actual approvals differ from any calculation based on basic PERM approvals.

Between 9% and 13% of EB2-ROW approvals over the period are for Indian nationals with ROW chargebility. For EB2-NIW the figure is between 1 and 3%. PERM certification data is by Nationality and will not reflect this.

Another indeterminable % of approvals will be from Schedule A cases that do not need a PERM certification. I have no estimate for this.

Finally, NIW cases are not captured in the PERM data. They accounted for 11% of total EB2-ROW approvals in FY2011, 14% in FY2012 and currently 19% in FY2013.

Together, it means that EB2 approvals from PERM certifications are likely to represent only two thirds or less of the total. In other words, any PERM based calculation for EB2-ROW needs to be multiplied by 1.5 or more.

The data isn't good enough to do the same analysis for Mexico and Philippines.

It should be noted that Philippines are likely to have a far higher % of Schedule A cases than ROW.

[Spectator]

Too late to do anything with it tonight.

I'll try to update FACTS & DATA over the weekend.

It doesn't appear to have been a very productive quarter for DOL.

The latest PD Month Certified is really only September 2012 and even that only appears to be half complete.

Edit:- The updated figures (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) are now available in FACTS & DATA.

[veni001]

Too late to do anything with it tonight.

I'll try to update FACTS & DATA over the weekend.

Thank you Spec,

Quick summary....

Total cases processed = 13,606
Denied/Withdrawn = 1,638 (12%) (FY2011 = 18.2%, FY2012 = 14.4%)
Certified = 11,968 (88%)
INDIA = 6,859 (57.3%) (FY2011 = 52.2%, FY2012 = 55.5%)
CHINA = 766
MEXICO = 252
PHILIPPINES = 344
ROW = 3,747 (31.3%) (FY2011 = 35.4%, FY2012 = 33.3%)
ROW-M-P = 4,343 (36.3%) (FY2011 = 42.0%, FY2012 = 38.4%)

Overall increase in IND certifications, decrease in ROW-M-P demand, decrease in Denied/Withdrawn cases.

[pdmay2008]

Thank you Spec,

Quick summary....

Total cases processed = 13,606
Denied/Withdrawn = 1,638 (12%) (FY2011 = 18.2%, FY2012 = 14.4%)
Certified = 11,968 (88%)
INDIA = 6,859 (57.3%) (FY2011 = 52.2%, FY2012 = 55.5%)
CHINA = 766
MEXICO = 252
PHILIPPINES = 344
ROW = 3,747 (31.3%) (FY2011 = 35.4%, FY2012 = 33.3%)
ROW-M-P = 4,343 (36.3%) (FY2011 = 42.0%, FY2012 = 38.4%)

Overall increase in IND certifications, decrease in ROW-M-P demand, decrease in Denied/Withdrawn cases.

Out of 6859 India certifications, how many porting cases we can expect 30% of it. That makes around 2250 cases, and if you add family members it comes around 5000 numbers. This is my guess on these numbers. Please feel free to comment on this.

[geeaarpee]

Out of 6859 India certifications, how many porting cases we can expect 30% of it. That makes around 2250 cases, and if you add family members it comes around 5000 numbers. This is my guess on these numbers. Please feel free to comment on this.

But it can't be all eb2 #s right, some might be eb3 right? AND it shouldn't be just eb2I porting right? all the eb2row,M,P,C portings will affect our SOFAD right?

Also I see the following figures - am I missing something or probably looking at a wrong report?

Total - 16,724
Denied/Withdrawn - 2212
Certified - 12,123
India - 6,935(57%)

[Spectator]

The PERM Data posts (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) have now been updated in the FACTS & DATA section.

[vizcard]

Out of 6859 India certifications, how many porting cases we can expect 30% of it. That makes around 2250 cases, and if you add family members it comes around 5000 numbers. This is my guess on these numbers. Please feel free to comment on this.

Where did the 30% come from? And don't say I made it up.

[gc_soon]

The PERM Data posts (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) have now been updated in the FACTS & DATA section.
Thanks Spec.
Is it possible to arrive at the porting figure from the PERM data. For eg, when someone ports, I guess they apply for a new PERM and I-140. So a new PERM certified with a PD of 2008 can be easily assumed to be an EB2. If that's the case porting numbers seem extremely low. I guess I must be missing something. Or is it the case that the porters dont have old PD till they interfile? In that case what are the old PDs? (Are they audit cases just being approved?)

[geeaarpee]

Thanks Spec.
Is it possible to arrive at the porting figure from the PERM data. For eg, when someone ports, I guess they apply for a new PERM and I-140. So a new PERM certified with a PD of 2008 can be easily assumed to be an EB2. If that's the case porting numbers seem extremely low. I guess I must be missing something. Or is it the case that the porters dont have old PD till they interfile? In that case what are the old PDs? (Are they audit cases just being approved?)

I think those are the audit cases. Until interfiled (which happens at the new EB2 140 stage), USCIS has no way to know whether it is a porting case or not (I shouldn't say no way, atleast USCIS can assume whether those are porting cases or not with the records they have. But they don't and they shouldn't for several reasons - not all second perm is a porting case - it could be due to issues with previous perm/employer and also due to ignorance - some people weren't kept cognizant of the fact that they have an approved/valid I-140, etc by their employers). Even after interfiling, USCIS has no obligation to pre-adjudicate the corresponding I-485 (if filed already), thats why we are seeing people in the forums, talking about calling the L2 and checking whether their cases are pre-adjudicated or not.

Spec and other gurus - Please correct me if I'm wrong...

[natvyas]

This is very useful despite greenspan-speak from CO (unlike ben bernanke, alan greenspan used to deliver info and let markets struggle to decipher it).

So here is the bottomline that I understood and my opinion thereof in parentheses:

1. EB1 - excess numbers from other countries will ensure EB1 IC won't be retrogressed. (IMHO EB1 by itself will barely provide 1K to EB2. So expect EB1 to pass through the entire spillover it receives from EB4/5).
2. EB5 - 75% more demand than previous year. How still no retro for EB5C. (Last year demand was 7.8K. 75% more is 13K. With FB spillover the limit will be 11K. So expect no sofad. It's a wonder that EB5C is not retrogressed).
3. EB4 - (CO skipped this one. But expect 3K sofad max here consistent with prior year).
4. EB2 - 1100 porting in EB2ICMP in december alone.(Full year that would be 13K. However, not all is pre 2004. Nor all is not EB2IC. But the biggest hint CO provides is that pre 2004 will possibly reach limit i.e. 2.8K. My rough guess is - if EB3I is giving 2.8K over 19 months (Nov 2002 - Sep 2004) then we should expect equal numbers between Sep 2004 - Sep 2008. Rounding out - 6K is a reasonable number to expect until Mid 2008 for EB2IC.

So all in all - all of this is quite in line with the thought that EB2IC will - other than FB spillover - will receive a very small SOFAD which together with regular EB2I quota we should expect to cover most of the EB2I porting alone. So we should apply FB spillover (12K in my judgement) to oct 485 inventory which then should bring EB2I date to Apr 2008 only. Sorry to be this pessimistic... but that's the only reasonable conclusion we can get from this. I guess if there is ANY upside to this prediction - the only place it can come from is EB5.

Q - I'm assuming this is the pessimistic scenario and things shouldnt get any worse than this......right???

My personal view on the situation is that given the lack of published data on porting for WW and I...the CO will get away with what he wants to do....he makes it a point to make it (whatever he says) happen at the end of the day....so whatever he says over the next few months in meetings with AILA will happen.......if my memory doesnt beat me...he has mentioned end of 2007 but that was some months ago...lets see if he improves on that.

[qesehmk]

Natvyas - Based on what we know now - I think Apr 2008 would be pessimistic yes. I guess I am reasonably confident about overall sofad being around 22K. However that's not including porting. The porting is going to be the dark horse here. So if porting is 6-7K ... we are looking at Apr 2008. At less SOFAD and slight upside from either EB1 or EB4 or EB5 we can look at July 2008. Beyond July 2008 this year would be difficult for approval (but the dates can always move beyond what can be approved).
Q - I'm assuming this is the pessimistic scenario and things shouldnt get any worse than this......right???

My personal view on the situation is that given the lack of published data on porting for WW and I...the CO will get away with what he wants to do....he makes it a point to make it (whatever he says) happen at the end of the day....so whatever he says over the next few months in meetings with AILA will happen.......if my memory doesnt beat me...he has mentioned end of 2007 but that was some months ago...lets see if he improves on that.

[natvyas]

Thank you Spec,

Quick summary....

Total cases processed = 13,606
Denied/Withdrawn = 1,638 (12%) (FY2011 = 18.2%, FY2012 = 14.4%)
Certified = 11,968 (88%)
INDIA = 6,859 (57.3%) (FY2011 = 52.2%, FY2012 = 55.5%)
CHINA = 766
MEXICO = 252
PHILIPPINES = 344
ROW = 3,747 (31.3%) (FY2011 = 35.4%, FY2012 = 33.3%)
ROW-M-P = 4,343 (36.3%) (FY2011 = 42.0%, FY2012 = 38.4%)

Overall increase in IND certifications, decrease in ROW-M-P demand, decrease in Denied/Withdrawn cases.

to Calculate the ROW-MP demand for the year, does this approach look okay:

4343 is the PERM approved in first quarter
Hence for 3 quarters = 13029 (those filed in last quarter wont be processed in time)
Actual demand = 13029 times 2 = 26058
Carried over from FY2012 = 7000
Total Demand (barring porting) = 33000
Porting = 6000
Total Demand = 39000

[gc_soon]

to Calculate the ROW-MP demand for the year, does this approach look okay:

4343 is the PERM approved in first quarter
Hence for 3 quarters = 13029 (those filed in last quarter wont be processed in time)
Actual demand = 13029 times 2 = 26058
Carried over from FY2012 = 7000
Total Demand (barring porting) = 33000
Porting = 6000
Total Demand = 39000

Couple of points: Doesn't the 4343 number, include all EBs ,meaning Eb1+Eb2+Eb3.
Also CO said porting for ROW is 1200 in Dec 2012; assuming an avg of 1200 per month, the porting number might be close to 12K(ignoring last couple of months in FY) right?

[Spectator]

to Calculate the ROW-MP demand for the year, does this approach look okay:

4343 is the PERM approved in first quarter
Hence for 3 quarters = 13029 (those filed in last quarter wont be processed in time)
Actual demand = 13029 times 2 = 26058
Carried over from FY2012 = 7000
Total Demand (barring porting) = 33000
Porting = 6000
Total Demand = 39000natvyas,

Even though I agree with your final figure (not necessarily how you arrived at it), I wouldn't even get that complicated. DOL only processed about 2 months worth of PERM in Q1 2013. I suspect they'll catch up over the year.

The underlying monthly PERM approvals hasn't changed that much.

Last year, 9 months produced 25k approvals in EB2-WW. Prorated that is about 33k for a full year.

For FY2013, 33 + 8 = 41k which is about what EB2-WW have as an allocation with the extra FB visas (39k).

With the error margins, it's just easier to say EB2-WW will use their allocation and provide no Fall Across to EB2-I.

There are headwinds and tailwinds around that calculation, so it is a good compromise IMO.

If you want to look in more detail, you probably need to split out Mexico, Philippines and ROW and look at them individually, because they all behave differently. e.g. Philippines is likely to have higher Schedule A and CP while ROW is likely to have higher NIW cases.

[justvisiting]

natvyas,

Even though I agree with your final figure (not necessarily how you arrived at it), I wouldn't even get that complicated. DOL only processed about 2 months worth of PERM in Q1 2013. I suspect they'll catch up over the year.

The underlying monthly PERM approvals hasn't changed that much.

Last year, 9 months produced 25k approvals in EB2-WW. Prorated that is about 33k for a full year.

For FY2013, 33 + 8 = 41k which is about what EB2-WW have as an allocation with the extra FB visas (39k).



FY2012 may have an unusually high number of EB2-WW. A lot of folks rushed to apply their I-485. There certainly was a spike in I-485s in June if you look at trackitt. Then there wasn't a massive flood in November once dates were C again, which is what I expected. (The USCIS dashboard numbers barely changed from baseline). I think WW will consume about 32K only. The long term trend is for 2K/month. I don't believe porting is nearly as high as has been reported.

[Spectator]

FY2012 may have an unusually high number of EB2-WW. A lot of folks rushed to apply their I-485. There certainly was a spike in I-485s in June if you look at trackitt. Then there wasn't a massive flood in November once dates were C again, which is what I expected. (The USCIS dashboard numbers barely changed from baseline). I think WW will consume about 32K only. The long term trend is for 2K/month. I don't believe porting is nearly as high as has been reported.justvisiting,

All those I-485 submitted in June 2012 will be approved in FY2013, as Cut Off Dates didn't return to Current until November 2012. There were 171 Trackitt EB2-ROW cases submitted in June 2012. Of those, 135 have now been approved and 36 still remain.

Actually, there was a spike in November 2012. Trackitt has 140 EB2-ROW applications submitted in November 2012, compared to 29 in October 2012. December 2012 shows 55 EB2-ROW applications submitted to date.

My analysis of the dashboard figures suggests the November EB2-WW numbers were fairly high.

Around 50 seems to be a normal Trackitt monthly EB2-ROW number over the last 2.5 years.

[seattlet]

Im a newbie to this forum. I see many calculations based on trackitt perm / 140 trackers and hence would like to know if it adequately conveys visa demand. Out of 5 folks that I personally know of with priority dates in 2008, except me no one has their case in trackitt. Same in EB2 ROW (2 of them who got their GC in less than a year, but have no idea about trackitt). I understand that we have to work with what we have and make assumptions. Having said that would all hope for dates to go somewhere into late 2008 or 2009.



justvisiting,

All those I-485 submitted in June 2012 will be approved in FY2013, as Cut Off Dates didn't return to Current until November 2012. There were 171 Trackitt EB2-ROW cases submitted in June 2012. Of those, 135 have now been approved and 36 still remain.

Actually, there was a spike in November 2012. Trackitt has 140 EB2-ROW applications submitted in November 2012, compared to 29 in October 2012. December 2012 shows 55 EB2-ROW applications submitted to date.

Around 50 seems to be a normal monthly EB2-ROW number over the last 2.5 years.

[qesehmk]

seattlet - welcome to forum. The short answer to your question is "Statistics". Most of the people who use trackitt date or any other data - normalize the numbers there with actuals in the past. e.g. in the past trackitt used to have 1:26 ratio of EB2IC folks. In other words 1 out of 26 people used to register on trackitt. So that's who people would do with any other source of data.

Im a newbie to this forum. I see many calculations based on trackitt perm / 140 trackers and hence would like to know if it adequately conveys visa demand. Out of 5 folks that I personally know of with priority dates in 2008, except me no one has their case in trackitt. Same in EB2 ROW (2 of them who got their GC in less than a year, but have no idea about trackitt). I understand that we have to work with what we have and make assumptions. Having said that would all hope for dates to go somewhere into late 2008 or 2009.

[SmileBaba]

Spec..if there won't be any fall-across to EB2I from Eb2 WW then in that case how we are predicting Eb2I approvals going into early 2008? Shouldn't there be no movement in that scenario ( I hope that's not the case)? Also to make things worse we are speculating that Eb1 might consume all Eb4 and Eb5 leftovers...what am I missing?




With the error margins, it's just easier to say EB2-WW will use their allocation and provide no Fall Across to EB2-I.

There are headwinds and tailwinds around that calculation, so it is a good compromise IMO.

If you want to look in more detail, you probably need to split out Mexico, Philippines and ROW and look at them individually, because they all behave differently. e.g. Philippines is likely to have higher Schedule A and CP while ROW is likely to have higher NIW cases.

[Spectator]

Spec..if there won't be any fall-across to EB2I from Eb2 WW then in that case how we are predicting Eb2I approvals going into early 2008? Shouldn't there be no movement in that scenario ( I hope that's not the case)? Also to make things worse we are speculating that Eb1 might consume all Eb4 and Eb5 leftovers...what am I missing?SmileBaba,

Currently I see EB2-I receiving about 17k total visas, made up of their initial allocation and the rest being Fall Down from EB4, EB5 and EB1.

That is enough to move to April 2008 even if 100% of known cases were approved (with an allowance for porting).

[SmileBaba]

SmileBaba,

Currently I see EB2-I receiving about 17k total visas, made up of their initial allocation and the rest being Fall Down from EB4, EB5 and EB1.

That is enough to move to April 2008 even if 100% of known cases were approved (with an allowance for porting).
Thanks Spec! I would like to think so too!

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey Spec

For Dates to Move thru end of Apr 2008 - DD shows 7300 + 5086 = 12386
17K Visas Available - are you assuming Porting around 4.6K.
How would the forecast look if EB2 WW use within their Quota for FY2013 - would that 4.4K add to 17K?


SmileBaba,

Currently I see EB2-I receiving about 17k total visas, made up of their initial allocation and the rest being Fall Down from EB4, EB5 and EB1.

That is enough to move to April 2008 even if 100% of known cases were approved (with an allowance for porting).

[justvisiting]

justvisiting,

All those I-485 submitted in June 2012 will be approved in FY2013, as Cut Off Dates didn't return to Current until November 2012. There were 171 Trackitt EB2-ROW cases submitted in June 2012. Of those, 135 have now been approved and 36 still remain.

Actually, there was a spike in November 2012. Trackitt has 140 EB2-ROW applications submitted in November 2012, compared to 29 in October 2012. December 2012 shows 55 EB2-ROW applications submitted to date.

My analysis of the dashboard figures suggests the November EB2-WW numbers were fairly high.

Around 50 seems to be a normal Trackitt monthly EB2-ROW number over the last 2.5 years.

I agree those June cases won't be approved till this FY. I expected a higher number still from November, but let's say that the applications tripled, then there wouyld have been 6000 receipts in Nov. That's ony 4K above baseline. Plus 2K "extra" for June 2012. That totals about 6K more EB2-WW. I looked at the EB2-WW monthy average a while back, but a conservative estimate is 2K approvals per month as a long term trend. That would mean "normal" is about 24K. Add the "extra" 6K and then 2K for porters and that's how I reached 32K.

[Spectator]

I agree those June cases won't be approved till this FY. I expected a higher number still from November, but let's say that the applications tripled, then there wouyld have been 6000 receipts in Nov. That's ony 4K above baseline. Plus 2K "extra" for June 2012. That totals about 6K more EB2-WW. I looked at the EB2-WW monthy average a while back, but a conservative estimate is 2K approvals per month as a long term trend. That would mean "normal" is about 24K. Add the "extra" 6K and then 2K for porters and that's how I reached 32K.justvisiting,

I think the underlying number of EB2-WW applications in November was at least 6k.

Your "conservative" average is extremely conservative.

EB2-WW approvals in the last few years have been:

FY2009 - 32,865 - Average 2,739 / month
FY2010 - 27,406 - Average 2,284 / month
FY2011 - 34,550 - Average 2,879 / month
FY2012 - 25,009 - Average 2,779 / month over 9 months

FY2010 appears to be the odd year out, otherwise the average is nearer 33k.

I don't believe the "extra" is as low as 6k.

On Trackitt, EB2-P already has as many approvals as last year, EB2-ROW has reached 90% and will reach the FY2012 level by the end of March. That is consistent with catching up the missing 3 months by the end of March. If approvals then return to a normal level for the second half of the year there will be 15 months of approvals in 12 months. The overall monthly average (for 15 months worth) only needs to be 2,600 to use the EB2-WW full allocation of ~39,000. 14,000 over 6 months is only 2,333 per month.

[erikbond101]

If 17 K is total number to EB2I. Then 2.5-3 K will be consumed (in FY13) by porters between Nov 02 and Sep 04 as CO commented in last visa bulletin.


Hey Spec

For Dates to Move thru end of Apr 2008 - DD shows 7300 + 5086 = 12386
17K Visas Available - are you assuming Porting around 4.6K.
How would the forecast look if EB2 WW use within their Quota for FY2013 - would that 4.4K add to 17K?

[Vkkpnm]

It's such a frustrating to wait for a thing whose timelines are not known :(. If I don't get at least EAD this year, I will leave this country.

Sorry guys trying to take out my frustration via this form.

[gkjppp]

whats your PD? chances are 0 to move forward if your PD is beyond May 1st,2010. So "packup". Just kidding. its a rollercoaster so you never know whats in CO's mind. he moves dates on his own discrete(He don't see backlogs).

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks gkjppp.

My priority date is Dec'07. Though I am very optimistic based on detailed analysis and discussion on this form but that will make more worse If I get missed again this year and again have to wait another year :(

[vizcard]

Thanks gkjppp.

My priority date is Dec'07. Though I am very optimistic based on detailed analysis and discussion on this form but that will make more worse If I get missed again this year and again have to wait another year :(

You will get your GC this year... so don't need to book your tickets just yet. I will be one of those cases that will be on the fence with an Aug PD.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks vizcard.

[Vkkpnm]

Do we know when is th next demand data will be published or any other action/event/stats by USCIS that will further put some light on our prediction?

[qesehmk]

This calendar - CLICK HERE (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/calendar.php) - on this site lists immigration events approximately. I and other moderators will keep adding events as time permits.
Do we know when is th next demand data will be published or any other action/event/stats by USCIS that will further put some light on our prediction?

[Vkkpnm]

Wow. Great. Thanks

[SmileBaba]

Thanks gkjppp.

My priority date is Dec'07. Though I am very optimistic based on detailed analysis and discussion on this form but that will make more worse If I get missed again this year and again have to wait another year :(

Hi! My PD is also Dec 2007. You mentioned you atleast need an EAD this year. So I am guessing you didn't file I485 last year?

But in any case don't think too much about GC dude. It will come on it's own time. Hang in there.

[gkjppp]

Thanks gkjppp.

My priority date is Dec'07. Though I am very optimistic based on detailed analysis and discussion on this form but that will make more worse If I get missed again this year and again have to wait another year :(

Advance congrats,You should get your GC before this october for sure. So, plan for Diwali. This site is great, at times you will become addict to this, seriously.

[Vkkpnm]

Hi! My PD is also Dec 2007. You mentioned you atleast need an EAD this year. So I am guessing you didn't file I485 last year?

But in any case don't think too much about GC dude. It will come on it's own time. Hang in there.

Yes I missed to file last year. Please don't ask how :). Yeah hanging here since 2006, lets have another year.

[Vkkpnm]

Advance congrats,You should get your GC before this october for sure. So, plan for Diwali. This site is great, at times you will become addict to this, seriously.
Amen :) and thanks. You r right, this site is so addictive. Thanks to all who helped in getting this site setup.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey All

Why isn't there any activity on this Forum in the last 3-4 days?


Amen :) and thanks. You r right, this site is so addictive. Thanks to all who helped in getting this site setup.

[bvsamrat]

It all depends when the Spill over gets released. If released only in the last few months, the possibiity of GC is slim as the process of I-485 application/FP etc. will take certain time during which the dates may retrogress again.

EAD for sure. But 50%-50% GC for new I-485's in this year if the dates gets delayed beyond July - IMHO




Advance congrats,You should get your GC before this october for sure. So, plan for Diwali. This site is great, at times you will become addict to this, seriously.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey All

I have a question for the GURUS here.

Lets assume we get 18K visas to EB2I. And lets say 3k is used by porting between Sept'02-Sept'04, which leaves with 15K. Now looking at Demand Data we have 7.3K until Dec07, and around 8K till End of June 08. So would the Dates be moved till June 2008?

Or Consider/assume that there might be around 4K Porting between (Sept 04-Jun 08) - And move the dates to End of Mar 08 (to accomodate for that 4K porting and deduct that 4K from June 08 to MAr 08).

please share your thoughts on this process of moving dates.

thanks


It all depends when the Spill over gets released. If released only in the last few months, the possibiity of GC is slim as the process of I-485 application/FP etc. will take certain time during which the dates may retrogress again.

EAD for sure. But 50%-50% GC for new I-485's in this year if the dates gets delayed beyond July - IMHO

[Spectator]

Hey All

I have a question for the GURUS here.

Lets assume we get 18K visas to EB2I. And lets say 3k is used by porting between Sept'02-Sept'04, which leaves with 15K. Now looking at Demand Data we have 7.3K until Dec07, and around 8K till End of June 08. So would the Dates be moved till June 2008?

Or Consider/assume that there might be around 4K Porting between (Sept 04-Jun 08) - And move the dates to End of Mar 08 (to accomodate for that 4K porting and deduct that 4K from June 08 to MAr 08).

please share your thoughts on this process of moving dates.

thanksSeekingGC2013,

Using your figures, you are correct that dates would move to the end of March 2008.

In reality, 100% of cases do not get approved, even though they are Current and potentially other cases get added to the Demand that we know nothing about.

Both affect where the Cut Off Date will move to.

[SeekingGC2013]

Spec,
But would we know that 4K in below example in the Demand Data published by June Visa Bulletin - and get an idea when the dates would be moved into?


SeekingGC2013,

Using your figures, you are correct that dates would move to the end of March 2008.

In reality, 100% of cases do not get approved, even though they are Current and potentially other cases get added to the Demand that we know nothing about.

Both affect where the Cut Off Date will move to.

[Spectator]

Spec,
But would we know that 4K in below example in the Demand Data published by June Visa Bulletin - and get an idea when the dates would be moved into?No.

The cases can't be shown in the DD because they are waiting for their PD to become Current for the conversion to an EB2 case to take place.

If they are approved while their PD is Current, they will not show in the Demand Data because a visa is immediately available.

All you would ever see are those that "miss the boat" after dates retrogress again and become pre-adjudicated.

After about May 2007, most porters will not have an I-485 pending under EB3 and will have to file one from scratch. They will likely "miss the boat" due to I-485 processing times.

Before that, those with an already pending I-485 under EB3 are as pre-adjudicated as those with one pending under EB2 IMO. The process of actual conversion to an EB2 basis and ordering a visa is a matter of minutes, assuming all else is good. The have a slightly higher chance of being issued an RFE, if one hasn't been sent fairly recently, but even the non-porting cases may have last been issued one a year ago by the time the dates become Current again.

[Vkkpnm]

Hi Spectator, I need your expert opinion on a post by Matt on Trackitt, eatimating porting count. Please see below
"As promised yesterday, I am providing the numbers behind my estimate of additional 5000 portings till year end.

There is roughly 1500 portings in the first Quarter as per USICS inventory comparison.This is porting from EB3I to EB2I before July/Aug 2007. And roughly all portings until January are already in the demand data of March 2013. There are two more full quarters of portings which can come into this years demand. and possibly one partial quarter

For Quarter two - 2000 + For Quarter three 2000 and partial quarter 1000. So it totals 5000. I have already added 250 additional in each quarter to accomodate July 2007 to June 2008.

I was intially trying to breakup labor data. To put it together in a small paragraph is too difficult.

The demand data of this month would give more indicators.."

Do you agree on this? Again I am not questioning anyone's judgement and have full respect for that. Just want to share with experts to get realistic figure.

[erikbond101]

As it was mentioned by Spectator that porting is 100 per month per FY. Then total porting between July 2007 and June 2008 will be 1200 in FY 2013. And some more will need to be added (600) for porting done in FY12 (between April 12-Sep12). Between Sep 2004 and July 2007 porting number will be around 3500-3700.
And in my humble opinion some of them (~30%) will already be part of demand data published in Feb 13. That is how demand data has increased from 5800 (Nov 13) to 7300 (Feb13).

[Spectator]

As it was mentioned by Spectator that porting is 100 per month per FY. Then total porting between July 2007 and June 2008 will be 1200 in FY 2013. And some more will need to be added (600) for porting done in FY12 (between April 12-Sep12). Between Sep 2004 and July 2007 porting number will be around 3500-3700.
And in my humble opinion some of them (~30%) will already be part of demand data published in Feb 13. That is how demand data has increased from 5800 (Nov 13) to 7300 (Feb13).No.

I used 100 as an example in this post.

I did not say what I thought it was (deliberately). I also said it would be my last comment on the subject.

[gc_soon]

I've a basic question about spillover. Does EB4 visas spill to EB5 or EB1. In other words, does EB5 receive any spillover from EB4?
Different (unofficial) blogs/sites give contracting information.

[mailmvr]

Any comment based on murthy's article
http://www.murthy.com/2013/03/01/aila-insights-into-visa-bulletin-cutoff-dates

[Spectator]

I've a basic question about spillover. Does EB4 visas spill to EB5 or EB1. In other words, does EB5 receive any spillover from EB4?
Different (unofficial) blogs/sites give contracting information.gc_soon,

EB4 falls up to EB1.
EB5 falls up to EB1.

EB4 does NOT fall down to EB5.

Here is the relevant INA 203 paragraph for EB5 - note it does not mention EB4.

(4) Certain special immigrants. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified special immigrants described in section 101(a)(27) (other than those described in subparagraph (A) or (B) thereof), of which not more than 5,000 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants described in subclause (II) or (III) of section 101(a)(27)(C)(ii) , and not more than 100 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants, excluding spouses and children, who are described in section 101(a)(27)(M) .
Here, in contrast, is the section for EB1:


(1) Priority workers. - Visas shall first be made available in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraphs (4) and (5), to qualified immigrants who are aliens described in any of the following subparagraphs (A) through (C):

[openaccount]

April DD reeased:http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

2004,2005,2006 numbers increased
2007,2008 numbers decreased compared to March DD.

[pdmay2008]

April DD reeased:http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

2004,2005,2006 numbers increased
2007,2008,2009 numbers decreased compared to March DD.

How is it possible to have less number of 2007, 2008, 2009 compared to last DD without dates being current?

[Spectator]

How is it possible to have less number of 2007, 2008, 2009 compared to last DD without dates being current?pdmay2008,

I agree it doesn't look right.

I only see reductions for 2007 (300) and 2008 (675).

Only next month's DD will say whether it is a mistake or not.

[ajaydons]

pdmay2008,

I agree it doesn't look right.

I only see reductions for 2007 (300) and 2008 (675).

Only next month's DD will say whether it is a mistake or not.



Could it be porting from EB2 to EB1??

[mailmvr]

Year MARCH-DD APRIL-DD
2005 300 375
2006 775 1025
2007 1650 7400
2009 27475 26375

[Spectator]

The EB3-WW figures also have an oddity.

The 345 for Prior to 01 January 2004 is at odds with all the other figures.

[YTeleven]

It is possible if EB2-I people are porting to EB1-I. You can see similar reduction in EB3-I DD, so far in this financial year the reduction of EB3-I DD is 3625 but the allowed quota for them is ~1400 till today.

Here is my guess for PD movements for APR'13 VB: EB3-I: 2 weeks forward movement, EB2-I: There will be huge backward movement(6 months to 1 year) unless CO considering any extra spillover than monthly allocated quota for EB2-I.


How is it possible to have less number of 2007, 2008, 2009 compared to last DD without dates being current?

[bvsamrat]

Is it possible that ported applications (EB3-I to EB2-I) are also added to demand as and when adjudicated?
which should be the case always-IMHO
Then this is good news


It is possible if EB2-I people are porting to EB1-I. You can see similar reduction in EB3-I DD, so far in this financial year the reduction of EB3-I DD is 3625 but the allowed quota for them is ~1400 till today.

Here is my guess for PD movements for APR'13 VB: EB3-I: 2 weeks forward movement, EB2-I: There will be huge backward movement(6 months to 1 year) unless CO considering any extra spillover than monthly allocated quota for EB2-I.

[erikbond101]

This is definitely wrong calculation. If demand has increased by 400 for cumulative 2007, then for 2008 it should be atleast 400 and more increment. By simple extrapolation it should be somewhere between 400 to 1000 (too high) for 2008. So cumulative number should be 7700 to 8000.

2007
dec 1300
jan 1450 150 increase
feb 1550 100 increase
mar 1650 100 increase
apr 2050 400 increase

2008
dec 6400
jan 6850 450 increase
feb 7050 200 increase
mar 7300 250 increase
apr 8000 ~500-700 increase

[GhostWriter]

Monthly demand data also states the same on the first page.

"Unused numbers can “fall-down” from E1 to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can “fall-up” from E4 and E5 to E1. This is
taken into consideration when setting monthly/annual targets for number use based on historical/recent patterns."


gc_soon,

EB4 falls up to EB1.
EB5 falls up to EB1.

EB4 does NOT fall down to EB5.

Here is the relevant INA 203 paragraph for EB5 - note it does not mention EB4.

Here, in contrast, is the section for EB1:


I've a basic question about spillover. Does EB4 visas spill to EB5 or EB1. In other words, does EB5 receive any spillover from EB4?
Different (unofficial) blogs/sites give contracting information.

[geeaarpee]

This is definitely wrong calculation. If demand has increased by 400 for cumulative 2007, then for 2008 it should be atleast 400 and more increment. By simple extrapolation it should be somewhere between 400 to 1000 (too high) for 2008. So cumulative number should be 7700 to 8000.

2007
dec 1300
jan 1450 150 increase
feb 1550 100 increase
mar 1650 100 increase
apr 2050 400 increase

2008
dec 6400
jan 6850 450 increase
feb 7050 200 increase
mar 7300 250 increase
apr 8000 ~500-700 increase

Please let me know if this sound right?
2006 - Diff(40400-41000) = 600
2005 - 30925-31500 = 575
2004 - 23125-23650 = 525
2003 - 11400-11800 = 400
2002 - 1175-1400 = 225
Total - 2325 EB3I to EB2I porting cases (for one month)
Assuming another 6975 porting cases for the next 3 months (assuming cases filed in the last quarter will not be ready for adjudication this FY), total # of porting cases from now until last quarter (for the time period between Sep 2004 and Jan 2007) itself will be sufficient to cover the SOFAD EB2I is expected this year.
Prediction: EB2I Dates will end Mid-end 2007 by end of FY2013. This doesn't include the EB2ROW,M,P,C usage. Pessimistic would be Early-Mid 2007 IMHO.

[username]

Company charged for fraud:
http://www.firstpost.com/business/indian-american-co-dibon-solutions-indicted-for-misuse-of-h1b-visa-653042.html
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/nri/visa-and-immigration/indian-american-company-indicted-for-misuse-of-h1b-visa/articleshow/18869328.cms


My GC sponsoring company is same mentioned in above news article. I had joined new company using EAD from Oct/2012 but my laywer did not file AC21. Do I need to worry about anything?

[gc_soon]

Demand for EB3-I before Jan 1 2005:
Oct 2012 : 25,925
Apr 2013 : 23,125

Difference : 2800. (# demand reduction for EB3-I due to approvals in EB3 category plus porting)

[gc_soon]

Please let me know if this sound right?
2006 - Diff(40400-41000) = 600
2005 - 30925-31500 = 575
2004 - 23125-23650 = 525
2003 - 11400-11800 = 400
2002 - 1175-1400 = 225
Total - 2325 EB3I to EB2I porting cases (for one month)
Assuming another 6975 porting cases for the next 3 months (assuming cases filed in the last quarter will not be ready for adjudication this FY), total # of porting cases from now until last quarter (for the time period between Sep 2004 and Jan 2007) itself will be sufficient to cover the SOFAD EB2I is expected this year.
Prediction: EB2I Dates will end Mid-end 2007 by end of FY2013. This doesn't include the EB2ROW,M,P,C usage. Pessimistic would be Early-Mid 2007 IMHO.

I'm not sure about your calculation. How could there be porting of 2325 in 1month, when the dates are at Sep 2004. Demand increased in dates beyond Sep 2004 cannot be due to porting, as dates have to be current when one interfiles. Someone can correct me if Im wrong.

[vizcard]

Company charged for fraud:
http://www.firstpost.com/business/indian-american-co-dibon-solutions-indicted-for-misuse-of-h1b-visa-653042.html
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/nri/visa-and-immigration/indian-american-company-indicted-for-misuse-of-h1b-visa/articleshow/18869328.cms


My GC sponsoring company is same mentioned in above news article. I had joined new company using EAD from Oct/2012 but my laywer did not file AC21. Do I need to worry about anything?

If you didn't file an AC21, you could get stuck if you get a RFE for an employment letter.

[gc_soon]

Monthly demand data also states the same on the first page.

"Unused numbers can “fall-down” from E1 to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can “fall-up” from E4 and E5 to E1. This is
taken into consideration when setting monthly/annual targets for number use based on historical/recent patterns."

Thanks Spec and Ghostwriter for the clarification.

[geeaarpee]

Exactly - that is my question - why there is a difference, if the dates are not current? Is USCIS already removing those ported cases from EB3 demand?


I'm not sure about your calculation. How could there be porting of 2325 in 1month, when the dates are at Sep 2004. Demand increased in dates beyond Sep 2004 cannot be due to porting, as dates have to be current when one interfiles. Someone can correct me if Im wrong.

[gc_soon]

Exactly - that is my question - why there is a difference, if the dates are not current? Is USCIS already removing those ported cases from EB3 demand?
EB3 total demand on Oct 2012 : 47,550
Demand as per Apr 2013 : 43,925

Net demand reduction for EB3: 47,550 - 43,925 = 3,625
Assuming monthly allocation of 250/month for EB3 in last 6 months : 1,250

So possible porting + cases that left EB3 (either withdrawn, changed chargebility etc) : 2,375

Assuming everything was porting : porting should have been only 2375 in the last 6 months.
Correct me If I'm wrong.

[qesehmk]

Thanks username for sharing this. I think the people who complained are brave and it must have been hell working for this company.

As per your question about AC21 - relax - there is no such requirement to send ANYTHING to USCIS. Some people proactively tell USCIS of the job change ... but I guess you can skip it and wait and see if USCIS rejects your 485 for whatever reason after which you can always appeal.
Company charged for fraud:
http://www.firstpost.com/business/indian-american-co-dibon-solutions-indicted-for-misuse-of-h1b-visa-653042.html
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/nri/visa-and-immigration/indian-american-company-indicted-for-misuse-of-h1b-visa/articleshow/18869328.cms


My GC sponsoring company is same mentioned in above news article. I had joined new company using EAD from Oct/2012 but my laywer did not file AC21. Do I need to worry about anything?

[geeaarpee]

So you are saying, this is a cumulative data for this FY but it is refleced only in the current DD (Apr'13)?


EB3 total demand on Oct 2012 : 47,550
Demand as per Apr 2013 : 43,925

Net demand reduction for EB3: 47,550 - 43,925 = 3,625
Assuming monthly allocation of 250/month for EB3 in last 6 months : 1,250

So possible porting + cases that left EB3 (either withdrawn, changed chargebility etc) : 2,375

Assuming everything was porting : porting should have been only 2375 in the last 6 months.
Correct me If I'm wrong.

[Kanmani]

Q,

Username is working on EAD and solely depending on pending I-485 for his status. Is there any grace time admissible to proceed with the appeal if there is any rejection?

Username,

If you suspect USCIS may revoke prior approvals of the said company, Is it possible for you to switch to H1b ?

Which one of the I-140 belongs to Dobon solutions?

[username]

Q,

Username is working on EAD and solely depending on pending I-485 for his status. Is there any grace time admissible to proceed with the appeal if there is any rejection?

Username,

If you suspect USCIS may revoke prior approvals of the said company, Is it possible for you to switch to H1b ?

Which one of the I-140 belongs to Dobon solutions?

My EB2 I140 is from Dibon. EB3 I140 was from previous company before joining Dibon.

Can I join new company on H1B after using EAD?

[gc2008]

My EB2 I140 is from Dibon. EB3 I140 was from previous company before joining Dibon.

Can I join new company on H1B after using EAD?

I don't want to scare you. But if the company is black listed, then there is a possibility of revoking ones I 140 by USCIS and there by the person wont be eligible for H1B extensions (if 6 years limit is already passed) and also cannot be able to retain priority date and off course I 485 will be denied. Same thing happened for AMSOL employees. Here is the link:

http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1032222701/amsol-inc-casper-wyoming-victims-of-pd-2004-i-140-485-denials

So I suggest you to consult a very good attorney ASAP.

[Kanmani]

Yes, you can always switch back to H1b. Even if you file AC21 it is of not use in the case of revocation due to fraud. If you maintain H1b, you can restart the GC from scratch and port your date using EB3 I-140.

I wish they don't revoke the I-140 , just few months left in your GC journey. All the best!

[qesehmk]

Since the basis of EAD is pending 485, if a 485 is rejected and appealed within the timeframe USCIS allows you to appeal (I would imagine a few weeks at least), the pending status of 485 should continue and EAD should be valid. I don't have any documents to sight right now ... but I am reasonably confident about that.

If anybody finds such document that mentions even the timeframe when one can appeal please do share. But I think username shouldn't be concerned too much. He has already gone through a lot EB3 EB2 - two jobs switches etc ... USCIS is not that dumb not to understand that people have a life. So I wouldn't worry too much if I were username.

Q,

Username is working on EAD and solely depending on pending I-485 for his status. Is there any grace time admissible to proceed with the appeal if there is any rejection?

Username,

If you suspect USCIS may revoke prior approvals of the said company, Is it possible for you to switch to H1b ?

Which one of the I-140 belongs to Dobon solutions?

[iamsheshu]

Hello Gurus !

My PD is Oct 2008 on EB2 - Any prediction when can I expect the dates to be current ?

Thanks !

[gc_soon]

The EB3-WW figures also have an oddity.

The 345 for Prior to 01 January 2004 is at odds with all the other figures.
Yeah, usually from what I've seen numbers are multiples of 25 except for this one.

[vizcard]

Hello Gurus !

My PD is Oct 2008 on EB2 - Any prediction when can I expect the dates to be current ?

Thanks !

Without CIR- summer 2014 latest.
With CIR - probably Dec 2013

[Spectator]

Yeah, usually from what I've seen numbers are multiples of 25 except for this one.Its not that.

The figure is higher than the next year, so it is clearly wrong.

EB3-All Other Countries
Prior 2002 -- 0
Prior 2003 -- 50
Prior 2004 -- 345
Prior 2005 -- 75
Prior 2006 -- 150
Prior 2007 -- 150
Prior 2012 -- 3,550

It should probably be either 50 or 75.

[gc_soon]

Spec, Yeah good catch. Forgot they are cumulative numbers.

[username]

Yes, you can always switch back to H1b. Even if you file AC21 it is of not use in the case of revocation due to fraud. If you maintain H1b, you can restart the GC from scratch and port your date using EB3 I-140.

I wish they don't revoke the I-140 , just few months left in your GC journey. All the best!

Thanks Q, Kanmani, gc2008 for your input.

[shreyasai2004]

Hello Gurus !

My PD is July 2008 EB2I - Any prediction when can I expect the dates to be current ?

Thanks !

[vizcard]

Hello Gurus !

My PD is July 2008 EB2I - Any prediction when can I expect the dates to be current ?

Thanks !

Please see Spec's and Q's analysis on page 1 of the forum.

Q also has a web tool (subscription needed) that will allow you to use your own assumptions to estimate when you will become current.

[rmuru99]

Visa bulletin April 2013 is out. No movement in dates. :-(

[veni001]

Visa bulletin April 2013 is out. No movement in dates. :-(

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

Interesting to see EB3-ROW-M moved to 01JUL07, Let's see what plan CO got for next few bulletins.

[chengisk]

Visa bulletin is up at http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5900.html

[june2010]

Gurus, whats the probability (taking into account the expected spillover, potential CIR getting passed and CO building a pipeline) of EB2-I dates crossing over June 2010 this year (even for a month or two)?
1) 0%
2) around 30%
3) around 50%
4) around 80%

[geeaarpee]

Visa bulletin is up at http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5900.html

Good that EB2C is moving steadily... My guess is we should follow the EB2C dates, EB2I will get there by the end of FY13. It could be in July (and followed by retrogression) or in Sept'13 (if moved gradually) but the sooner it gets there, the better it would be...

[goforgreen]

Good that EB2C is moving steadily... My guess is we should follow the EB2C dates, EB2I will get there by the end of FY13. It could be in July (and followed by retrogression) or in Sept'13 (if moved gradually) but the sooner it gets there, the better it would be...

Thats a good point. I was thinking on the same lines ... EB2I dates will start moving and end at somewhere near to EB2C date. Last several years EB2I&C moved together during spillover, but now due to EB2I porting EB2C is moving ahead of EB2I. That is a good thing for EB2I as the spillover will be available for EB2I use only.

[pdmay2008]

I have no comments on this VB. Except waiting for July Bulletin.

[qesehmk]

Good way to summarize the visa bulletin! This is how every EB2I should look at it.
I have no comments on this VB. Except waiting for July Bulletin.

[vizcard]

I have no comments on this VB. Except waiting for July Bulletin.

Neither does CO. amazing

[natvyas]

Not that I'm complaining but what happened to EB2 I retrogressing further to 2003? Should we conclude that the demand has either subsized or levelled out such that it is within the available numbers?

[cancer24]

This is good VB in my opinion.

Movement in EB2C, even if smaller, is as good as movement in EB2I date. By end of the fiscal EB2I will catch up EB2C and I don’t think EB2C will retrogresses. EB2I will have more share of SO but to realize it we need to be patient until last Q.

[Spectator]

Good that EB2C is moving steadily... My guess is we should follow the EB2C dates, EB2I will get there by the end of FY13. It could be in July (and followed by retrogression) or in Sept'13 (if moved gradually) but the sooner it gets there, the better it would be...


Thats a good point. I was thinking on the same lines ... EB2I dates will start moving and end at somewhere near to EB2C date. Last several years EB2I&C moved together during spillover, but now due to EB2I porting EB2C is moving ahead of EB2I. That is a good thing for EB2I as the spillover will be available for EB2I use only.


This is good VB in my opinion.

Movement in EB2C, even if smaller, is as good as movement in EB2I date. By end of the fiscal EB2I will catch up EB2C and I don’t think EB2C will retrogresses. EB2I will have more share of SO but to realize it we need to be patient until last Q.I would inject a note of caution to those that think because EB2-I has ended with the same Cut Off Date as EB2-C in the past, that it will happen this year.

EB2-C can move to late 2008 using only their allocation and using no spillover at all.

To reach the same Cut Off Date might require as many as 27-30k visas for EB2-I . That number currently appears unattainable under any scenario.

[pch053]

Gurus, whats the probability (taking into account the expected spillover, potential CIR getting passed and CO building a pipeline) of EB2-I dates crossing over June 2010 this year (even for a month or two)?
1) 0%
2) around 30%
3) around 50%
4) around 80%

I don't think there is any chance for EB2-I PD's reaching June'10 this year. Last year, the dates moved into 2010 because USCIS wanted to create a buffer of new applications as most of the old applications up to July 2007 were approved.

[vizcard]

I don't think there is any chance for EB2-I PD's reaching June'10 this year. Last year, the dates moved into 2010 because USCIS wanted to create a buffer of new applications as most of the old applications up to July 2007 were approved.

Agreed. Of course we don't know what CIR will end up including.

But IF they increase numbers and take out dependents from the cap, then there is a very good chance it'll move into 2010 and beyond. But assuming CIR only takes out the per-country caps (which I think is closer to reality), it won't reach 2010.

[vizcard]

I would inject a note of caution to those that think because EB2-I has ended with the same Cut Off Date as EB2-C in the past, that it will happen this year.

EB2-C can move to late 2008 using only their allocation and using no spillover at all.

To reach the same Cut Off Date might require as many as 27-30k visas for EB2-I . That number currently appears unattainable under any scenario.

This VB doesn't tell us anything.

The only positive thing I see out of this is that EB3ROW-M-P will have lesser porting (minor change). Hopefully that positively impacts SOFAD.

[Spectator]

This VB doesn't tell us anything.

The only positive thing I see out of this is that EB3ROW-M-P will have lesser porting (minor change). Hopefully that positively impacts SOFAD.Vizcard,

Porting can still give an EB3 applicant an advantage of up to 6 years (whether it be ROW or India), so I don't see how the current movement is going to have any effect.

I would certainly leave EB3-P out of the equation. Currently, they are moving even slower than EB3-I and are now 10 months behind EB3-ROW-M. You could replace them with EB3-C, since they looks like they will catch EB3-ROW-M in the May or June VB.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec thanks to you for sharing the 18K spillover with the immigrant community your postings have been shared all over, this is by far the best news this year. Now its official in all published data’s.

All EB2-India folks hang in tight do not worry about intermediate visa bulletins till Jul or till whenever they decide to start spillover. Out of these 18K, 12K will be an extra to EB2 – I / C. Porting is at the same old level however what is happening is that EB2 was unavailable for 6 months last year so it created a backlog. Porting does not exceed 4K (This is just my ball park thought, calculations for previous years showed 3K) a year however as we had a 6 month blackout last year we can expect 6K this year. The monthly cap of 250 – 300 is not enough to satiate this hence no movement. Dates will definitely hit mid 2008 for sure even with the ever increasing inventory thanks to the 12k additional SOFAD that we can bank on even if some of the other usages / past year backlogs may be higher.

[Spectator]

Teddy,

Great to hear from you again.

I think we have all missed your contributions.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Great to hear from you again.

I think we have all missed your contributions.

Thanks Spec, yes I will be around and write more often, all these months have been dull with regards movement which was somewhat on expected lines. I have been a silent reader of your postings here.

[geeaarpee]

Administrators - please remove or move this to appropriate threads if you feel it is inappropriate here...

Predictions vs Calculations:

In the current state, with the information we have - which one will be effective - a prediction based on past/present facts or calculations based on the #s published by USCIS.

IMHO - prediction based on experience and past/present facts will be more effective becos the kind of data (demand data, perm/140 data, trackitt data, etc) we are getting now are either erratic (think abt the latest Mar'13 demand data) or too junkie to base our calculations on...

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[TeddyKoochu]

@username I just read your posting, I can tell you firsthand what happened in one of my close friend and colleague for 5 years. He was also with a company which was blacklisted for H1B issues, his I140 took 3 years for approval (This was during blacklist period) and I-485 was approved without any issues. He did not contemplate change of employers because employer would have revoked I140 and he simply did not want to go through the motions again. In your specific case you would probably like to dissociate yourself from the company as much as possible so AC21 may help in that regard or you can hold tight and be greened this year, sheer bad luck that you were not greened last year itself.

[vizcard]

Vizcard,

Porting can still give an EB3 applicant an advantage of up to 6 years (whether it be ROW or India), so I don't see how the current movement is going to have any effect.

I would certainly leave EB3-P out of the equation. Currently, they are moving even slower than EB3-I and are now 10 months behind EB3-ROW-M. You could replace them with EB3-C, since they looks like they will catch EB3-ROW-M in the May or June VB.

I agree in theory. But PDs 7/2007 and prior are current. PDs 3/2008 onwards would barely qualify because of the 5 yr work experience requirement. Whatever porting will be next to nothing. Wouldn't it be fairly safe to say that EB3 ROW is not contributing to the porting "concern".

[qesehmk]

GRP - it's always a combination of both. One can't just rely on past data - nor one can solely rely on current data which tends to be incomplete most of the time.
Administrators - please remove or move this to appropriate threads if you feel it is inappropriate here...

Predictions vs Calculations:

In the current state, with the information we have - which one will be effective - a prediction based on past/present facts or calculations based on the #s published by USCIS.

IMHO - prediction based on experience and past/present facts will be more effective becos the kind of data (demand data, perm/140 data, trackitt data, etc) we are getting now are either erratic (think abt the latest Mar'13 demand data) or too junkie to base our calculations on...

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[SeekingGC2013]

@Teddy

Whats your logic being Mid of 2008
3k - Allocated
4k - Porting
13K- Jun1st 2008

we would need a total of 20k Visas to EB2I for the dates to reach Jun1st 2008/ - how do you see those numbers coming?


Spec thanks to you for sharing the 18K spillover with the immigrant community your postings have been shared all over, this is by far the best news this year. Now its official in all published data’s.

All EB2-India folks hang in tight do not worry about intermediate visa bulletins till Jul or till whenever they decide to start spillover. Out of these 18K, 12K will be an extra to EB2 – I / C. Porting is at the same old level however what is happening is that EB2 was unavailable for 6 months last year so it created a backlog. Porting does not exceed 4K (This is just my ball park thought, calculations for previous years showed 3K) a year however as we had a 6 month blackout last year we can expect 6K this year. The monthly cap of 250 – 300 is not enough to satiate this hence no movement. Dates will definitely hit mid 2008 for sure even with the ever increasing inventory thanks to the 12k additional SOFAD that we can bank on even if some of the other usages / past year backlogs may be higher.

[triplet]

With so many applications already having been approved from a large pool of 2008 applicants can't we expect an initial surge into late 2008? It will of course retrogress but how much clarity in terms of approvable 485s does Oppenheim have. I think things are quite muddled at this point, we just have to wait and see.

[Spectator]

With so many applications already having been approved from a large pool of 2008 applicants can't we expect an initial surge into late 2008? It will of course retrogress but how much clarity in terms of approvable 485s does Oppenheim have. I think things are quite muddled at this point, we just have to wait and see.You can see from the Demand Data that 2008 has at least 16k cases alone.

Progress to Mid March 2008 might be quicker because a reasonable % of those were approved last year.

After that large numbers remain.

You can get an idea of the number of Trackitt cases submitted last year and how many were approved/remain here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012).

I don't think CO will move the dates much beyond what he feels is necessary to use up the available numbers. He has pretty good visibility on those numbers.

[erikbond101]

Well...I'm still unsure why till mid March 2008 had more approved percentage. Last FY cutoff date moved from Nov 2007 to Sep 2008 in one month (VB bulletin Dec 11). So effectively Feb 2008 and June 2008 PD have same probability of getting approved. It may be possible that trackitt data is not complete.
Am I missing something here?

[Spectator]

Well...I'm still unsure why till mid March 2008 had more approved percentage. Last FY cutoff date moved from Nov 2007 to Sep 2008 in one month (VB bulletin Dec 11). So effectively Feb 2008 and June 2008 PD have same probability of getting approved. It may be possible that trackitt data is not complete.
Am I missing something here?erikbond101,

I think what you are saying is incorrect.

The December 2011 VB moved the Cut Off Dates from 01NOV07 to 15MAR08.

Therefore EB2-I cases with a PD up to March 14, 2008 had a full extra month to be adjudicated and approved.

The January 2012 VB moved the Cut Off Date to 01JAN09 and included the rest of 2008 PD cases.

The VB movements for EB India cases can be found here (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf) in a handy format.

[sbhagwat2000]

erikbond101,

I think what you are saying is incorrect.

The December 2011 VB moved the Cut Off Dates from 01NOV07 to 15MAR08.

Therefore EB2-I cases with a PD up to March 14, 2008 had a full extra month to be adjudicated and approved.

The January 2012 VB moved the Cut Off Date to 01JAN09 and included the rest of 2008 PD cases.

The VB movements for EB India cases can be found here (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf) in a handy format.

Spec or other gurus I have a question. First Spec thanks for the 18000 visa news that was awesome. My question is since FB visas are allocated and CO knows he has extra visas that are more or less guaranteed why wont he move the dates now? whats the logic waiting for last quarter.

[Spectator]

Spec or other gurus I have a question. First Spec thanks for the 18000 visa news that was awesome. My question is since FB visas are allocated and CO knows he has extra visas that are more or less guaranteed why wont he move the dates now? whats the logic waiting for last quarter.sbhagwat2000,

Which (or how many) visas do you think are absolutely guaranteed to be available to EB2-I such that they could be given now and that CO wouldn't potentially find himself in the same situation as last year?

Also bear in mind that CO has an overall 27% limit on the number of visas that can be issued in each of the first three quarters.

[geeaarpee]

sbhagwat2000,

Which (or how many) visas do you think are absolutely guaranteed to be available to EB2-I such that they could be given now and that CO wouldn't potentially find himself in the same situation as last year?

Also bear in mind that CO has an overall 27% limit on the number of visas that can be issued in each of the first three quarters.

Spec, I'm not trying to argue, but I think that's what CO's job right? - to have a strategy so that you don't misuse as well as don't waste the quota and we all think that he is trying to find a formula for the past 10+ yrs which is absolutely RIDICUOLOUS! What he is doing year after year is trying different strategies (so called) which I think even a high school kid can do. Wasn't he ashamed to say that I underused last year's FB quota (not 1 or 2 1000s but 18k) and I'm giving it this year to EB - he should've been fired the next day - man, there are 10s of 1000s people waiting here for years to bring their beloved family members :(

If CO has to make sure that he doesn't misuse other categories' visas and also not to waste any of the 158k+ visas then the only way I think he would be making everyone current in the Sep'13 VB. What happened last year was utter foolishness and it was widely agreed by everyone that what happened during the summer'07 was the foolishness to the extreme. If we go by CO's strategy the foolishness will repeat or atleast in a new form!

[veni001]

Spec, I'm not trying to argue, but I think that's what CO's job right? - to have a strategy so that you don't misuse as well as don't waste the quota and we all think that he is trying to find a formula for the past 10+ yrs which is absolutely RIDICUOLOUS! What he is doing year after year is trying different strategies (so called) which I think even a high school kid can do. Wasn't he ashamed to say that I underused last year's FB quota (not 1 or 2 1000s but 18k) and I'm giving it this year to EB - he should've been fired the next day - man, there are 10s of 1000s people waiting here for years to bring their beloved family members :(

If CO has to make sure that he doesn't misuse other categories' visas and also not to waste any of the 158k+ visas then the only way I think he would be making everyone current in the Sep'13 VB. What happened last year was utter foolishness and it was widely agreed by everyone that what happened during the summer'07 was the foolishness to the extreme. If we go by CO's strategy the foolishness will repeat or atleast in a new form!

geeaarpee,
I can understand your frustration, Visa allocation is a complex process involving various governmental agencies.
EB Visa demand and spillover vary based economic conditions, so "CO" can't follow one simple method from year-to-year.

[geeaarpee]

geeaarpee,
I can understand your frustration, Visa allocation is a complex process involving various governmental agencies.
EB Visa demand and spillover vary based economic conditions, so "CO" can't follow one simple method from year-to-year.

I totally agree... I'm not frustrated but kinda puzzled with spec's earlier comment - probably I might have mis-read that he is speaking "FOR" CO's strategies/decisions.

One thing I would say as a last comment on this subject - Don't break it until it breaks you - I'm not asking CO to break it (anyways he is doing it by underusing/misusing the visas), but he can very well amend it. It happened in the past, like stopping substitution labors, the way SOFAD changed and all these happened in a fairly less significant amount of time - if CO thinks porting is a problem, he should fix it (atleast try to). You don't live with a headache for yrs and do nothing or put the blame on it everytime your actions/decisions failed.

[gc_soon]

sbhagwat2000,
Also bear in mind that CO has an overall 27% limit on the number of visas that can be issued in each of the first three quarters.
Spec,
Do you mean, 27% visas (of the yearly quota) should be allocated each quarter(assuming CO enforces the limit). Did CO violate that in FY2012 by overusing the visas in first 2 quarters?

[Spectator]

Spec,
Do you mean, 27% visas (of the yearly quota) should be allocated each quarter(assuming CO enforces the limit). Did CO violate that in FY2012 by overusing the visas in first 2 quarters?The law sets an overall maximum usage of 27% in each of the first 3 quarters.

EB probably did exceed that number, but it doesn't necessarily mean the overall limit was breached if, for example FB approvals were low.

The information is not published, but the USCIS figures for the period suggest that was the case (at least the EB side of the equation).

[Kanmani]

Wasn't he ashamed to say that I underused last year's FB quota (not 1 or 2 1000s but 18k) and I'm giving it this year to EB - he should've been fired the next day - man, there are 10s of 1000s people waiting here for years to bring their beloved family members :(



GRP,

If you analyse how the FB visa numbers are distributed , you will be surprised to find the reason behind the wastage.

Almost 90% of them are consular processed.

The National visa center initiates a FB case which is ready for adjudication and collects fees , forward the file to the respective consular post for interview. Each Consulate around the world requests Mr.CO for visa number and reserve it. Thats all the duty of Mr.CO , he cannot micro manage the consulates' to return the visa number not used due to administrative delay.

Imagine, somebody from a nook village of India attends the interview for FB visa, he/she is sent back for additional documents say for an formal Birth Certificate, we know how difficult to get a new BC in the villages by reading experiences in trackitt, imagine chinese have to submit translated, notorised form of each and every document. For the same reason, USCIS has extended the RFE response time for certain queries to 180 days !

Meanwhile, the consulate will hold the Visa number for 180 days ( + time spent on interview intiation) with a suspense tone. If the Fiscal Year is over by the time, the visa number is a waste. ( granted to EB, the following year)

I am not speaking for Mr.CO here, But it is very difficult to pinpoint, where the fault lies in the case of FB wastages.

[bieber]

I think what CO did last year was a nice thing, not foolish. Many people including me are fortunate to have an EAD/AP after waiting for almost 4 years. I understand the disappointment of May-Dec 2010 PDs but that happens with any non current COD.

[bvsamrat]

Another issue with FB is the wait time. A close relative such as brother/sister or parent will loose interest over time, hence pending applications will gather dust and 18 K world wide wastage is not a large number. Frankly we also do not know how many issued GCs are being wasted in family category due to lack of interest over time?


GRP,

If you analyse how the FB visa numbers are distributed , you will be surprised to find the reason behind the wastage.

Almost 90% of them are consular processed.

The National visa center initiates a FB case which is ready for adjudication and collects fees , forward the file to the respective consular post for interview. Each Consulate around the world requests Mr.CO for visa number and reserve it. Thats all the duty of Mr.CO , he cannot micro manage the consulates' to return the visa number not used due to administrative delay.

Imagine, somebody from a nook village of India attends the interview for FB visa, he/she is sent back for additional documents say for an formal Birth Certificate, we know how difficult to get a new BC in the villages by reading experiences in trackitt, imagine chinese have to submit translated, notorised form of each and every document. For the same reason, USCIS has extended the RFE response time for certain queries to 180 days !

Meanwhile, the consulate will hold the Visa number for 180 days ( + time spent on interview intiation) with a suspense tone. If the Fiscal Year is over by the time, the visa number is a waste. ( granted to EB, the following year)

I am not speaking for Mr.CO here, But it is very difficult to pinpoint, where the fault lies in the case of FB wastages.

[vizcard]

Another issue with FB is the wait time. A close relative such as brother/sister or parent will loose interest over time, hence pending applications will gather dust and 18 K world wide wastage is not a large number. Frankly we also do not know how many issued GCs are being wasted in family category due to lack of interest over time?

First of all 18K wastage is a very significant number - considering the backlog in FB immigration. The wait time is due to this kind of wastage. A simple solution is to not request a visa number until an applicant is "documentarily qualified" like in EB immigration.

Secondly, "Loss of interest" means the GC for that applicant is a "nice to have" rather than a "must have". That's also part of the reason why there is a lot more noise from EB immigration where in most cases a GC is a "must have".

PS: parents are not part of any quota for GC. As for brothers/sisters, I personally have no problem with them being the lowest priority considering that the categories above them are related to spouses & children.

[SeekingGC2013]

Gurus - a question about the range of possible retrogression that might happen on Oct 13 VB & FY2014

Assuming that all the Demand Data till Dec 2007 for sure is going to be cleared - when dates move from Sept 04 - Dec 2007. And lets assume dates are retrogressed to Dec 2006 - Do you think the Porting between Sept04 - dec 06 (New retrogressed date) would be sufficient type enough for quota of FY2014. And probably a lot of demand would get build for Jan07-dec 07 as well. Do you expect Dates to move into 2009 in Q4 FY 2014 assuming average or below average visas in FY2014?



Another issue with FB is the wait time. A close relative such as brother/sister or parent will loose interest over time, hence pending applications will gather dust and 18 K world wide wastage is not a large number. Frankly we also do not know how many issued GCs are being wasted in family category due to lack of interest over time?

[qesehmk]

Spec how has CO done on that 27%. Do we see him utilizing that 27% every quarter? What's the historical record?
The law sets an overall maximum usage of 27% in each of the first 3 quarters.

EB probably did exceed that number, but it doesn't necessarily mean the overall limit was breached if, for example FB approvals were low.

The information is not published, but the USCIS figures for the period suggest that was the case (at least the EB side of the equation).

[Spectator]

Spec how has CO done on that 27%. Do we see him utilizing that 27% every quarter? What's the historical record?Q,

That's a good question, which is difficult to answer because the figure is not published.

For EB, based on the published USCIS figures and figures I have kept over the years, he seems to have done a reasonable job.

[Spectator]

GRP,

If you analyse how the FB visa numbers are distributed , you will be surprised to find the reason behind the wastage.

Almost 90% of them are consular processed.

The National visa center initiates a FB case which is ready for adjudication and collects fees , forward the file to the respective consular post for interview. Each Consulate around the world requests Mr.CO for visa number and reserve it. Thats all the duty of Mr.CO , he cannot micro manage the consulates' to return the visa number not used due to administrative delay.

Imagine, somebody from a nook village of India attends the interview for FB visa, he/she is sent back for additional documents say for an formal Birth Certificate, we know how difficult to get a new BC in the villages by reading experiences in trackitt, imagine chinese have to submit translated, notorised form of each and every document. For the same reason, USCIS has extended the RFE response time for certain queries to 180 days !

Meanwhile, the consulate will hold the Visa number for 180 days ( + time spent on interview intiation) with a suspense tone. If the Fiscal Year is over by the time, the visa number is a waste. ( granted to EB, the following year)

I am not speaking for Mr.CO here, But it is very difficult to pinpoint, where the fault lies in the case of FB wastages.I suspect returns are a big problem and can be very Category and Country specific.

The only data I have ever seen related to EB3 and was released as part of the Chinese lawsuit against DOS for the low number of visas received by EB3-C.

Bear in mind that EB3-C has an exceptionally high CP rate.

Returns were a big problem for EB3-C, averaging 50%, but ranging from 20% to 70% per quarter.

For instance, in FY2009 when EB3-C only received 1,077 visas, DOS allocated 2,569 visas, but 1,492 were returned.

In EB3 as a whole, the level of returns was 10-15%. In that same year DOS allocated 44,588 visas and 4,810 were returned.

Some of the returns could be reused, but returns late in the FY would impact the total approvals.

The vast majority of visas wasted in FB in FY2012 were in F2A Exempt (67.5%). Since all Mexico F2A fall under that Category, I have a suspicion that there was a problem in that area.

I don't think we will ever know the full reasons.

[erikbond101]

If dates will retrogress to Dec 06, then current PD will include porters between Jan 2003-Dec 06, since EB3-I date cutoff will be around that time. I do not think it is possible to set retrogress date in 2006 by CO. It will be at least in 2005 or in 2004. Well FY2014 is faraway...and it depends on so many factors, but if we assume same amount of spillovers as previous year and this year then yes it is possible to reach 2009 with 20K SOFAD this year and 20K SOFAD next year.


Gurus - a question about the range of possible retrogression that might happen on Oct 13 VB & FY2014

Assuming that all the Demand Data till Dec 2007 for sure is going to be cleared - when dates move from Sept 04 - Dec 2007. And lets assume dates are retrogressed to Dec 2006 - Do you think the Porting between Sept04 - dec 06 (New retrogressed date) would be sufficient type enough for quota of FY2014. And probably a lot of demand would get build for Jan07-dec 07 as well. Do you expect Dates to move into 2009 in Q4 FY 2014 assuming average or below average visas in FY2014?

[gc_soon]

GRP,

Imagine, somebody from a nook village of India attends the interview for FB visa, he/she is sent back for additional documents say for an formal Birth Certificate, we know how difficult to get a new BC in the villages by reading experiences in trackitt, imagine chinese have to submit translated, notorised form of each and every document. For the same reason, USCIS has extended the RFE response time for certain queries to 180 days !
Meanwhile, the consulate will hold the Visa number for 180 days ( + time spent on interview intiation) with a suspense tone. If the Fiscal Year is over by the time, the visa number is a waste. ( granted to EB, the following year)

Kanmani, Won't the consulate return the visa number in the same month of the interview if visa is not granted? Or is EB and FB consular processing done differently?

[bvsamrat]

I understand any kind of wastage is not good.
If we apply the same analogy to EB2-I demand numbers, what would be the likely drop outs from ' documentarily qualified' people. I am sure there would be quite a few from 2007 and from 2008. How does USISC know this. For eg. if a person has a pending i-485 in 2007 and a demand number in EB2-I but gone back . Is it mandatory to send drop out letters?. or does IBIS sort out this automatically or triggered only when PD is current?


First of all 18K wastage is a very significant number - considering the backlog in FB immigration. The wait time is due to this kind of wastage. A simple solution is to not request a visa number until an applicant is "documentarily qualified" like in EB immigration.

Secondly, "Loss of interest" means the GC for that applicant is a "nice to have" rather than a "must have". That's also part of the reason why there is a lot more noise from EB immigration where in most cases a GC is a "must have".

PS: parents are not part of any quota for GC. As for brothers/sisters, I personally have no problem with them being the lowest priority considering that the categories above them are related to spouses & children.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani, Won't the consulate return the visa number in the same month of the interview if visa is not granted? Or is EB and FB consular processing done differently?

By law, they should return the unused visa number the following month, but in practice, it is up to the discretion of the consulates whether to surrender and reapply OR to hold the number and wait for the decision time. Some follow the rule, some may not. More over, consulates cannot use the previous years' visa number as granted.

Spec, I agree with you , CP is a big problem for Chinese, as common people, they have even more responsibilities other than ROW like to get clearance from their government to leave the country . This was shared by my neighbour, while on a discussion about American citizenship, she told that , she must surrender all her property to the government to become other country's citizen.

[vizcard]

I understand any kind of wastage is not good.
If we apply the same analogy to EB2-I demand numbers, what would be the likely drop outs from ' documentarily qualified' people. I am sure there would be quite a few from 2007 and from 2008. How does USISC know this. For eg. if a person has a pending i-485 in 2007 and a demand number in EB2-I but gone back . Is it mandatory to send drop out letters?. or does IBIS sort out this automatically or triggered only when PD is current?

There is only one trigger that tells the USCIS that the case is "lost" and that is a revoked I140 or I485. if the sponsoring company does not do that, then I don't think there's any way for USCIS to know this... even when the person is current (unless there's some form of RFE).

In the past, we had used a term called "demand destruction" to capture some of those lost cases & cases where ppl got laid off. There might still be some of that but I don't remember the factor Q and Spec used to estimate demand or if it is still valid.

[vizcard]

Small nugget - Fragomen released a bulletin article on mar 1 stating the potential impacts of the sequester which may impact porting.
----
Executive Summary
DHS, DOL and the State Department have not yet released specific plans for dealing with across-the-board budget cuts, but immigration processing could be delayed if a budget compromise is not reached in Congress.

As has been widely reported in the media, across-the-board funding cuts are set to take effect today at U.S. government agencies unless Congress can reach a compromise on the federal budget. The Departments of Homeland Security, State and Labor are all subject to cuts, but have not yet specified how their immigration processing operations would be affected. If funding reductions take place, employers and foreign nationals could see delays in adjudications, border inspections and visa issuance.

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services is primarily funded by filing fees and may see the fewest effects if sequester takes place, though it is subject to budget cuts to some degree. Customs and Border Protection is expected to be among the hardest hit among DHS operations. Immigration and Customs Enforcement this week released some low-risk foreign nationals from detention facilities, citing looming budget cuts.

At the State Department, officials have already warned that consular services like visa processing might be delayed. Labor Department functions – including PERM, labor condition application (LCA) and prevailing wage operations – are not funded by fees and could also face delays due to cuts.
Even if sequester is avoided, there remains the threat of a government shutdown later in March when a stopgap government funding measure expires.

What This Means for Employers
The budget sequester comes as employers are preparing for the FY 2014 H-1B cap filing season, which begins April 1. Though by no means certain, cap-related processing could see the most immediate impact if cuts take place -- in particular, the processing of LCAs at DOL. The LCA is an essential component of every H-1B case and must be obtained before a petition is filed with USCIS. Employers should continue to work with their Fragomen professionals to file LCAs as soon as possible, but should be prepared for possible delays if the budget impasse is not resolved.

Fragomen is closely monitoring the agencies and will provide updates as developments occur.
-------

[Kanmani]

Some of the points that I read from various websites w.r.t CP ( There is no Government document available)

After NVC fees is paid, a parcel (documents) will be sent to the applicant. The applicant can delay the consular interview for one year from the day of receipt of the parcel , provided he submits valid reason for the delay.

On the day of the interview the applicant is given a clear verdict, pass or fail.

If fail, he is eligible for re-interview without new application, fees etc within one year.

If pass, he is stamped with immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months, within that he must enter the US to get his physical GC. Otherwise the immigrant visa is not valid meaning the visa number is wasted.

I am really confused with the time limit ( 1 year interview time 1 year appeal time), though we all know NVC sends fee notices well ahead. As S said, we will ever know how they operate.

[qesehmk]

I have heard from friends that there have been instances when people have gone back to India and still received GCs in mail at a friends' address! So once 485 has been filed USCIS mostly blindly processes it as long as it is a normal case (as in all documents in order, no felony records and clear FBI namecheck and no revokations).
There is only one trigger that tells the USCIS that the case is "lost" and that is a revoked I140 or I485. if the sponsoring company does not do that, then I don't think there's any way for USCIS to know this... even when the person is current (unless there's some form of RFE).

In the past, we had used a term called "demand destruction" to capture some of those lost cases & cases where ppl got laid off. There might still be some of that but I don't remember the factor Q and Spec used to estimate demand or if it is still valid.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Not to exhibit schadenfreude, but this could have a pretty significant impact on spillover to EB2IC not just through porting, but also through EB2ROW fall across.


Small nugget - Fragomen released a bulletin article on mar 1 stating the potential impacts of the sequester which may impact porting.
----
At the State Department, officials have already warned that consular services like visa processing might be delayed. Labor Department functions – including PERM, labor condition application (LCA) and prevailing wage operations – are not funded by fees and could also face delays due to cuts.
Even if sequester is avoided, there remains the threat of a government shutdown later in March when a stopgap government funding measure expires.

-------

[geeaarpee]

Some of the points that I read from various websites w.r.t CP ( There is no Government document available)

After NVC fees is paid, a parcel (documents) will be sent to the applicant. The applicant can delay the consular interview for one year from the day of receipt of the parcel , provided he submits valid reason for the delay.

On the day of the interview the applicant is given a clear verdict, pass or fail.

If fail, he is eligible for re-interview without new application, fees etc within one year.

If pass, he is stamped with immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months, within that he must enter the US to get his physical GC. Otherwise the immigrant visa is not valid meaning the visa number is wasted.

I am really confused with the time limit ( 1 year interview time 1 year appeal time), though we all know NVC sends fee notices well ahead. As S said, we will ever know how they operate.

Exactly thats what I was talking about - ACCOUNTABILITY & TRANSPARENCY thats what missing - They can treat EB immigrants like whatever they want, but they should be accountable and transparent to their fellow countrymen (FBs are filed by Citizens and PRs). If you are wasting 18k in a single year and you don't even reach out to your fellow countrymen on what happened then you got a PROBLEM man!

[Pedro Gonzales]

Exactly thats what I was talking about - ACCOUNTABILITY & TRANSPARENCY thats what missing - They can treat EB immigrants like whatever they want, but they should be accountable and transparent to their fellow countrymen (FBs are filed by Citizens and PRs). If you are wasting 18k in a single year and you don't even reach out to your fellow countrymen on what happened then you got a PROBLEM man!

We're getting off track on this thread. If this discussion gathers momentum, i'll move it to its own thread.

[gten20]

We're getting off track on this thread. If this discussion gathers momentum, i'll move it to its own thread.
Thank you. :D

[suninphx]

Spec,

I ran some filters on trackitt to find out I485-ROW filings for Oct-Feb period for FY11,12,and 13 and this is what I found

FY 2011 - 222 caes
FY 2012 - 212 cases and
FY 2013 - 253 cases

Given EB2-ROW was retrogressed for last 3 months of FY2012..I still don’t see 'significant' increase in EB2-ROW filings (not at least from this data). Do you think that EB2-ROW demand is tapering off and might yield some spillover?

[Spectator]

Spec,

I ran some filters on trackitt to find out I485-ROW filings for Oct-Feb period for FY11,12,and 13 and this is what I found

FY 2011 - 222 caes
FY 2012 - 212 cases and
FY 2013 - 253 cases

Given EB2-ROW was retrogressed for last 3 months of FY2012..I still don’t see 'significant' increase in EB2-ROW filings (not at least from this data). Do you think that EB2-ROW demand is tapering off and might yield some spillover?suninphx,

That's a slightly unfair comparison IMO.

There hasn't been enough time in FY2013 for all the cases to be added to Trackitt. People are notoriously slow in doing so.

I think we are using slightly different filters (I'm including NIW for instance), but that's not an issue.

My equivalent figures to your post would be:

FY2011 -- 265
FY2012 -- 261
FY2013 -- 289

However, if they were shown as cases added to Trackitt by Mar 15 in the relevant year they become:

FY2011 -- 167
FY2012 -- 178
FY2013 -- 289

Of those 289 in FY2013, 143 have a USCIS receipt date of November 2012.

Between June to December 2012 USCIS Receipt Dates, there have been 422 Trackitt cases added for EB2-ROW. Only 2 of those were approved in FY2012. A third of those remain pending.

[qesehmk]

Suninphx I am surprised why you dont think that 212 ->> 253 is a significant increase. That's a 20% increase which can easily consume any remaining EB2ROW quota.

[suninphx]

Suninphx I am surprised why you dont think that 212 ->> 253 is a significant increase. That's a 20% increase which can easily consume any remaining EB2ROW quota.

qesehmk, not really...when you take into consideration 3 months retrogession.

My point is -ROW seems to be running at ~50- cases /month (for previous years) ... on trackitt....and they are below that average currently.. (~253 against ~400 expected)...Spectator has fair point there about people being slow in adding cases ..so we will see if we reach to that average rate in coming months... as things stand now...they are running below avarage

[Spectator]

qesehmk, not really...when you take into consideration 3 months retrogession.

My point is -ROW seems to be running at ~50- cases /month (for previous years) ... on trackitt....and they are below that average currently.. (~253 against ~400 expected)...Spectator has fair point there about people being slow in adding cases ..so we will see if we reach to that average rate in coming months... as things stand now...they are running below avaragesuninphx,

Here's the numbers to date:

Oct-12 --- 29 (when all PD had to be prior to 2012)
Nov-12 -- 143
Dec-12 --- 59
Jan-13 --- 33
Feb-13 --- 25
Mar-13 ---- 9

Total --- 298 - Average - 50

If we take the period June 2012 - Feb 2013, then there have been 478 cases added to Trackitt. Over 9 months, that is an average of 53, so the 50/month average is about right.

The problem is that 4 months from FY2012 has been pushed into FY2013 so that there is likely to be 16 months of approvals in FY2013 (i.e. 16 * 50 = 800 rather than 12 * 50 = 600).

If sequestration hits DOL then that might ameliorate the effect, but in previous years their is a considerable tail past a USCIS RD of March that gets approved in the FY. With the current quicker processing times by USCIS, even a DOL slowdown might be countered.

I agree we need to see what the monthly number settles down to for the rest of FY2013 - unfortunately that information won't be clear for months.

[qesehmk]

3 month retro should equal 25% annual demand and so when the gates open - you should see 100% jump in over 3 months e.g. Oct-Dec.
Whereas we are only seeing 20% jump.

Agree about slow to add. But I really don't think that it would every catch up.

qesehmk, not really...when you take into consideration 3 months retrogession.

My point is -ROW seems to be running at ~50- cases /month (for previous years) ... on trackitt....and they are below that average currently.. (~253 against ~400 expected)...Spectator has fair point there about people being slow in adding cases ..so we will see if we reach to that average rate in coming months... as things stand now...they are running below avarage

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Here's the numbers to date:

Oct-12 --- 29 (when all PD had to be prior to 2012)
Nov-12 -- 143
Dec-12 --- 59
Jan-13 --- 33
Feb-13 --- 25
Mar-13 ---- 9

Total --- 298 - Average - 50

If we take the period June 2012 - Feb 2013, then there have been 478 cases added to Trackitt. Over 9 months, that is an average of 53, so the 50/month average is about right.

The problem is that 4 months from FY2012 has been pushed into FY2013 so that there is likely to be 16 months of approvals in FY2013 (i.e. 16 * 50 = 800 rather than 12 * 50 = 600).

If sequestration hits DOL then that might ameliorate the effect, but in previous years their is a considerable tail past a USCIS RD of March that gets approved in the FY. With the current quicker processing times by USCIS, even a DOL slowdown might be countered.

I agree we need to see what the monthly number settles down to for the rest of FY2013 - unfortunately that information won't be clear for months.

Spectator,

I did not bring the PD at all in the mix to keep the filter simple. I am just running a filter based on RD. So my logic is - if avarage is indeed ~50/month then we should see ~400 cases (50* 8 months - that would include 3 retro months from previous FY)...we see ~250-275 cases currently ..which are below average..thats all

[suninphx]

3 month retro should equal 25% annual demand and so when the gates open - you should see 100% jump in over 3 months e.g. Oct-Dec.
Whereas we are only seeing 20% jump.

Agree about slow to add. But I really don't think that it would every catch up.

so you agree to my logic or not...not very clear to me from your reply :)

[qesehmk]

Yes. I think so.
so you agree to my logic or not...not very clear to me from your reply :)

[Spectator]

Spectator,

I did not bring the PD at all in the mix to keep the filter simple. I am just running a filter based on RD. So my logic is - if avarage is indeed ~50/month then we should see ~400 cases (50* 8 months - that would include 3 retro months from previous FY)...we see ~250-275 cases currently ..which are below average..thats allI am not bringing PD into the equation either, only USCIS Receipt Date for the I-485.

As I've pointed out, there are the number expected when you consider that some people brought things forward and submitted their I-485 in June 2012, knowing dates would be retrogressed until the new FY.

If you are looking at October to February, you are ignoring the fact that June-September 2012 had 191 receipts, of which 174 were in June 2012, just before dates retrogressed. Therefore you wouldn't expect to see 8 months worth received by USCIS in the period October-February.

That is why I used the June 2012 to February 2013 range, since it captures all the additional cases and averages 53 / month. Both January and February don't even look complete yet, so that figure is likely to rise.

In different terms:

@ 50 / month we would expect 50*4 = 200 for June-September. There were actually 191.

@ 50 / month we would expect 50*5 = 250 for October-February. There are actually 289 to date.

@ 50 / month we would expect 50*9 = 450 for June-February. There are actually 480 to date.

Maybe we just agree to disagree.

[suninphx]

Maybe we just agree to disagree.
Probably ...

thanks for additional prespective and numbers though..

I will keep watching how trackitt numbers build up...

[JosephM]

Gurus, My Priority date is 12/14/2007 EB2 India any estimates getting current?
thanks in advance

[vizcard]

Gurus, My Priority date is 12/14/2007 EB2 India any estimates getting current?
thanks in advance

Sep 2013 latest.

[vizcard]

No action in 2 and half days. Looks like everyone had a great St Patrick's Day :)

[harapatta2012]

Vizcard,
When do you expect Aug 15, 2008 PD to become current?? What are chances by sep2013- 50%, 70%, 99%?


No action in 2 and half days. Looks like everyone had a great St Patrick's Day :)

[natvyas]

Do we have any idea how EB1 is tracking YTD in terms of I-140 approvals? Wouldnt that give us an idea of their usage?

Regards
Nat

[Spectator]

Do we have any idea how EB1 is tracking YTD in terms of I-140 approvals? Wouldnt that give us an idea of their usage?

Regards
NatNat,

Such data would be very useful if it was published.

I haven't seen anything published since July 2011.

[vizcard]

Vizcard,
When do you expect Aug 15, 2008 PD to become current?? What are chances by sep2013- 50%, 70%, 99%?

I'd say 50% or worse for Sep 2013. My PD is Aug 20, 2008 so im literally in the same window as you (Aug 15-22). Based on Spec and Qs latest calculations, we will be on the outside looking in. We just have to wait till the July VB to get more visibility. Good luck to both of us.

PS: this is assuming no relief from CIR.

[erikbond101]

And my PD April 30 2008. What are my chances....gurus....percentage wise.? I will be very happy if I can atleast apply 485 this year.

[harapatta2012]

Vizcard,

Thanks for the reply and feedback. Yes I know that we are in oneboat and thats why was curious to your guru input. Thanks again.


I'd say 50% or worse for Sep 2013. My PD is Aug 20, 2008 so im literally in the same window as you (Aug 15-22). Based on Spec and Qs latest calculations, we will be on the outside looking in. We just have to wait till the July VB to get more visibility. Good luck to both of us.

PS: this is assuming no relief from CIR.

[vizcard]

Vizcard,

Thanks for the reply and feedback. Yes I know that we are in oneboat and thats why was curious to your guru input. Thanks again.

Do not confuse me for a guru. :) Q, Spec and a couple of other bring the goods. I'm just using their analysis to provide my perspective.


And my PD April 30 2008. What are my chances....gurus....percentage wise.? I will be very happy if I can atleast apply 485 this year.

I assume you are EB2I/C. You should be able to apply. Whether or not it gets approved before the dates retrogress is another matter. At least you'll have EAD.

For all others, please refer to the first page for the detailed analysis by Q and Spec and draw your own conclusions.

[Spectator]

vizcard,

Don't be so modest.

[qesehmk]

I second that!
vizcard,

Don't be so modest.

[snvlgopal]

Gurus, What could be the reason for EB3 India movement of 2 weeks in April VB, usually its moving a week every month. Should i expect this everymonth :)

Thanks

[qesehmk]

Simple answer - If the porting is more than 300 per month then it is quite possible that every month EB3 quota gets reduced by 600 (approx) which should be generally equivalent to 2 weeks.

Complex answer - The porting mentioned above should all come from retrogressed EB3 date+1 week then only the above statement is true. This porting is not all EB3 porting. This is the portion that causes movement. In fact there are 3 types of porting. A) porting that causes EB3 movement B) porting that causes EB2 retrogression or at least holds back EB2 dates C) porting that is latent and not visible today. e.g. an EB3I2009 porting to EB2I. So its A that I am talking about here.


Gurus, What could be the reason for EB3 India movement of 2 weeks in April VB, usually its moving a week every month. Should i expect this everymonth :)

Thanks

[Spectator]

Gurus, What could be the reason for EB3 India movement of 2 weeks in April VB, usually its moving a week every month. Should i expect this everymonth :)

Thankssnvlgopal,

The other possibility is that CO has released the extra visas from Oct-Mar due to the increase in the EB3 limit to 45,188.

When 40k were available, the 7 % limit was 2,803 or 252 visas per month in Q1-Q3.

With 45.2k available, that rises to 3,163 and around 285 visas per month.

So April may have had 285 + (6*(285-252)) = 483 visas available rather than 252 to date (192% of what has been available).

In this case, it would be a one off instance of faster movement.

The other factor is that EB3-I Cut Off Dates are now starting to move into an area where people have already ported and the density may be starting to lower.

In that case, the faster movement would be more sustainable.

[Spectator]

The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) was updated with January 2013 figures yesterday evening.

It has been a very quiet week so far in all senses of the word.

There have been virtually no Trackitt approvals so far.

If we were a little closer to the end of March, I might put that down to running out of visas for the Quarter, but I do not think we are close to that situation.

On another note, I think CO has left a big move in EB3-ROW dates a little late - I expected a larger movement in the April VB.

As of March 7, 2013 EB3-ROW had 3.5k demand left. By the next DD in early April, that will have dropped to about 1.9k.

By the time the May VB can take effect, EB3-ROW demand will have been virtually exhausted. EB3-ROW appear to need at least 10k new applications to be approved to meet the number of visas available to them. Some new cases will have been submitted as a result of recent movements, but not that many.

Since it is going to take at least 3-4 months for new I-485 to be adjudicated, that is going to push the approvals into Q4 - exactly the same time as EB2-I spillover is likely to be released.

That is going to increase the reliance on USCIS being able to approve large numbers of cases in a short timespan.

I never like to be reliant on USCIS being efficient.

As a PS:- If CO was working on only 140k being available annually in his calculations for October thru March, then the number of visas available do appear very close to being used up. At 158k EB being available annually, they do not. We'll have to see what happens for the rest of the month.

[Spectator]

I saw this post (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1203282449/just-sent-interfiling-email-to-nsc-when-pd-n/page/last_page) on Trackitt.

It pretty much confirms what we have said already - that the conversion of the basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2 cannot take place until the PD is Current.


Today I got this email response from NCSCFollowup.NSC@uscis.dhs.gov:

Good afternoon,
USCIS records indicate that the Service is waiting for VISA availability.
Please note that if an applicant wishes to transfer their pending I-485 application to their 2nd preference approved I-140 petition, a request for conversion must be made in writing, but a visa must be available to transfer.
If you have already submitted a written transfer request, your request will be kept in the file. The transfer can take place once visas are available.
The National Customer Service Center’s toll free number is 1 800 375 5283 or you may access the CIS web site at www.uscis.gov should you have any further questions or need additional information.
Regards,
USCIS Nebraska Service Center
EX0357

[qesehmk]

Spec just to illustrate your point you mean the EB3PD date must be current in EB2. Right?
I saw this post (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1203282449/just-sent-interfiling-email-to-nsc-when-pd-n/page/last_page) on Trackitt.

It pretty much confirms what we have said already - that the conversion of the basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2 cannot take place until the PD is Current.

[Spectator]

Spec just to illustrate your point you mean the EB3PD date must be current in EB2. Right?Q,

Correct.

Until it is, the interfiling request will just sit in the file.

In practical terms, it means that all interfiling requests received after May 2012 with a PD of September 2004 or later are invisible to the Demand Data, since a visa could never be requested under EB2.

Those with a PD before September 2004 won't appear either, since when adjudicated, a visa is immediately available.

I doubt very much whether they appear in the USCIS Inventory as EB2 either.

[harapatta2012]

Spec,
Based on your finding,
One thing is that porting until now (Mat 2012-Mar 2013) happended only from applicants in EB3I whose PD is before Sep 2004.Wow then they are still consuming >250 visas a month. Thats a lot of porting from less ppl (PD between 2002-2004).

One question that need answer is: time it takes from the point EB3I file is initiated and can be ported and visa can be assigned. If that time is >3 months then porting should be very less this year.

[Spectator]

Spec,
Based on your finding,
One thing is that porting until now (Mat 2012-Mar 2013) happended only from applicants in EB3I whose PD is before Sep 2004.Wow then they are still consuming >250 visas a month. Thats a lot of porting from less ppl (PD between 2002-2004).

One question that need answer is: time it takes from the point EB3I file is initiated and can be ported and visa can be assigned. If that time is >3 months then porting should be very less this year.For any case that already has an I-485 on file, the process should be relatively quick, excepting any that have an RFE on the I-485 raised.

That category covers most people interfiling with a PD up to July 2007.

Only those with a PD beyond July 2007 who have interfiled since May 2012 will need to file an I-485 for the first time. Technically, they need an existing I-485 to interfile at all, since interfiling is changing the basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2. Anything else is just retention of the PD from an approved I-140 under EB3 for a new I-140 under EB2.

Logistically, for the earlier PDs, it should take no longer to approve the case and request a visa than for any of the existing pre-adjudicated cases.

It may come down more to the luck of the draw as to who gets pulled from the store room first.

In order to ensure earlier PDs are approved first, it is quite possible that CO will limit the initial movement of EB2-I Cut Off Dates and only move it further in subsequent VBs.

We just don't know.

[SmileBaba]

It definitely is alarming if EB3I before 2004 are consuming regular quota of EB2I by means of porting. So I assume when the dates will be progressed all the Eb3I porting/interfiling waiting on file (as per Spec's finding that interfiling only happens when dates are current) will consume a lot of visas, and we don't know the count of them. They could well be consuming a lot of visas considering 2004 and beyond are taking regular quota quite comfortably.

Spec,
Based on your finding,
One thing is that porting until now (Mat 2012-Mar 2013) happended only from applicants in EB3I whose PD is before Sep 2004.Wow then they are still consuming >250 visas a month. Thats a lot of porting from less ppl (PD between 2002-2004).

[Spectator]

It's not a new finding.

It is just some confirmation of something I (and Kanmani) have been trying to say all along (based on what the USCIS AFM says).

[Vkkpnm]

Based on this confirmation, are you still on with your earlier prediction of EB2 date movements by fy2013.

Or this will change your prediction by some margins?

[Spectator]

Based on this confirmation, are you still on with your earlier prediction of EB2 date movements by fy2013.

Or this will change your prediction by some margins?No.

I've always worked on this assumption.

I still can't settle on what I think the right figure is for Porting / PD Year / Month so there might be some variation there.

I am more concerned that I used a fairly optimistic number for EB1 and it might exceed that.

Worst to Best case at the moment for me is 11 - 18k total visas available to EB2-I. That's a wide margin, but that reflects the uncertainty. There's also an uncertainty about how many of those would be used by porting cases and I can't quantify that.

[geeaarpee]

No.

I've always worked on this assumption.

I still can't settle on what I think the right figure is for Porting / PD Year / Month so there might be some variation there.

I am more concerned that I used a fairly optimistic number for EB1 and it might exceed that.

Worst to Best case at the moment for me is 11 - 18k total visas available to EB2-I. That's a wide margin, but that reflects the uncertainty. There's also an uncertainty about how many of those would be used by porting cases and I can't quantify that.

Spec, can you give us a worst to best case for the # of porting cases and the corresponding (predicted) date movements?

[erikbond101]

That is how demand data has been increasing from past 6 months for PDs before 2008. (5400 to 7400). Those people have already applied their I-485 and have ported. In my opinion 80-90% of ported case before July 2007 have already applied their I-485 and are now part of demand data. But after July 2007, high percentage of ported numbers will not be part of demand data till dates are current. (60-70%). But sometimes I have seen on trackitt that after porting from EB3 to EB2, I-140 PD shows EB3 priority date (may be 10-20% of folks).

So I do not think many more new numbers are coming pre July 2007 as most of them are already part of demand data. From July 2007-June 2008.....porting may be higher and not part of demand data... I'm making an assumption of 1500 porters (in July 13) between July 2007-June 2008.

[Spectator]

That is how demand data has been increasing from past 6 months for PDs before 2008. (5400 to 7400). Those people have already applied their I-485 and have ported. In my opinion 80-90% of ported case before July 2007 have already applied their I-485 and are now part of demand data. But after July 2007, high percentage of ported numbers will not be part of demand data till dates are current. (60-70%). But sometimes I have seen on trackitt that after porting from EB3 to EB2, I-140 PD shows EB3 priority date (may be 10-20% of folks).

So I do not think many more new numbers are coming pre July 2007 as most of them are already part of demand data. From July 2007-June 2008.....porting may be higher and not part of demand data... I'm making an assumption of 1500 porters (in July 13) between July 2007-June 2008.I respectfully disagree.

The vast majority of the increase before 2008 has been caused by continued pre-adjudication of new 2007 PD cases submitted last year.

In the PD period 2004 - 2006 the increase in figures looks like this (for the period when the years have been shown separately):

--------- 2004 -- 2005 -- 2006
January --- 50 ---- 50 ---- 50
February --- 0 ---- 50 ---- 50
March ----- 25 ---- 25 ---- 50
April ----- 75 --- 175 --- 150

That just looks like continued pre-adjudication of cases received before dates retrogressed.

The April figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt, because the whole EB2-I Demand Data for April looked decidedly odd.

[SmileBaba]

That is how demand data has been increasing from past 6 months for PDs before 2008. (5400 to 7400). Those people have already applied their I-485 and have ported. In my opinion 80-90% of ported case before July 2007 have already applied their I-485 and are now part of demand data. But after July 2007, high percentage of ported numbers will not be part of demand data till dates are current. (60-70%). But sometimes I have seen on trackitt that after porting from EB3 to EB2, I-140 PD shows EB3 priority date (may be 10-20% of folks).

So I do not think many more new numbers are coming pre July 2007 as most of them are already part of demand data. From July 2007-June 2008.....porting may be higher and not part of demand data... I'm making an assumption of 1500 porters (in July 13) between July 2007-June 2008.

Still porting with Eb3I PD later than Sep 2004 is not part of demand data that has happened between Mar 2012 till now. Those cases will be added to demand data when dates will progress for Eb2I.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks everyone.
Specs:The way you have predicted range of spillover from 11k to 16k, wondering can u predict this in terms of priority date movement say dec 07 to apr 08?

[Spectator]

A warm welcome to MATT2012, presumably the same user as on Trackitt.

I've followed your posts with interest.

[MATT2012]

Yes, thanks.. I knew for sometime I had to come here...I am not knowledgeable as many here..will learn and contribute as much as I can...

[Vkkpnm]

Welcome Matt. I also follow your posts closely.

[erikbond101]

Thank you Spec for the explanation. Now can you explain why EB3I demand have gone down by 2500 in 4 months period.
Since max available approved numbers will be 234*4 (EB3) + 234*4 (EB3 ported to EB2 before Sep 2004) = 1872
628 number is a big number for 4 months. (I'm not considering April'13 demand data after FBs numbers .)

Demand data till Jan 1 2007

-----Nov 2012-----March 2013
EB3----43500------41000 = 2500 reduction

EB2---- 1100------ 1650 = 550 addition

[erikbond101]

My assumption:

I know..I always bring back porting number prediction...but hear me out.

What previous 5 months are showing that with cutoff date of Sep 2004, all numbers are getting consumed by porters of 2003 and Sep 2004. That means 233*5 = 1165 ported between May12 and March13 for 21 months period.( May 12 after Visa NA)

Now from Oct 2004 to Dec 2007 we have 39 months, so with same rate porting it will take us to 2164.(1165*39/21= 2164) But IMHO it should be higher because 2003 should not have many porters as compare to 2005, 2006, 2007.

If cutoff date will remain at Sep 2004 in June' 13 VB.

At that time (233*9) = 2097 will be consumed by 2003,2004 porters. Then corresponding number of porting will take us to 3894 (2097*39/21 = 3894). Again this should be higher as assumed above IMHO.

Now if we add everything:
7400 (demand data--assuming all pending 485 are preadjudicated as of March 13) + 3894 = 11294 spillover will be required to reach Jan 1 2008.

11294 + 5086 (porting excluded--may be additional 400) = 16380 spillover will be required to reach May 1 2008. (I hope it reaches there...yay)

[erikbond101]

Spec........FY13 is almost half-finished....as many will tell you here ....you are the best.....Can you provide your predictions on porting numbers? Man...I can not wait till July VB.

[MATT2012]

I am new here, but I do love the energy and enthusiasm.

Before I blog anything, my sincere Thanks to all here, who by their commitment is trying to help all of us make good decisions in their respective immigration journey!!

As Spec and all others, I am trying to crack the big nut - porting. The calculation below is based on porting trends from 2003 and 2004 EB3I and applying the similar percentage to rest of the years. The expected porting for rest of this fiscal is what I am trying to narrow down. In the last line I am assuming 80% of this year portings will be approved.

2003 -2004-------- 1450
2005---------------- 1184
2006---------------- 1439
2007---------------- 1606
2008 Fist Quarter---400
Total------ 6079
80% This year 4863

My numbers may not be correct, but together we should be able to make a range.

[Spectator]

Thank you Spec for the explanation. Now can you explain why EB3I demand have gone down by 2500 in 4 months period.
Since max available approved numbers will be 234*4 (EB3) + 234*4 (EB3 ported to EB2 before Sep 2004) = 1872
628 number is a big number for 4 months. (I'm not considering April'13 demand data after FBs numbers .)

Demand data till Jan 1 2007

-----Nov 2012-----March 2013
EB3----43500------41000 = 2500 reduction

EB2---- 1100------ 1650 = 550 additionerik,

I agree that reductions in the EB3-I demand could be a potential fly in the ointment to the view I have.

Having said that, for periods that are not current in EB2-I (2005-2006 in the table below), the reductions for EB3-I are quite low (and fairly similar to the increases seen in EB2-I).

------------- 2003 --- 2004 --- 2005 --- 2006
November ---- (50) --- (50) --- (75) --- (50)
December --- (175) -- (150) --- (75) -- (150)
January ---- (150) -- (275) --- (50) ----(75)
February ---- (75) ---- 25 ---- (25) --- (25)
March ------ (175) -- (125) --- (50) --- (50)
April ------ (175) -- (125) --- (50) --- (25)


Again, I don't think this indicates anything that could not be consistent with interfiling cases received before dates retrogressed finally becoming pre-adjudicated. Those with a PD before September 2004 can, of course, be approved under EB2-I.

[Spectator]

An interesting article on EB5 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/foreign-citizens-making-big-investments-in-us-in-exchange-for-green-cards/2013/03/21/ecf250d2-8d72-11e2-b63f-f53fb9f2fcb4_story_3.html) about a non-Chinese investor and the reasons they went into the program.

What struck me in the article was the graphic which says EB5 visa usage in October - January was 3,073.

[Spectator]

The DHS 2012 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics (http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics) has been published.

A few quick interesting facts from looking at the tables.

EB1 Primary Usage By Sub-Category

EB1A - 21.91%
EB1B - 20.84%
EB1C - 57.25%

Total Approvals Per Primary

EB1 - 2.41
EB2 - 2.06
EB3 - 2.22
EB4 - 1.61
EB5 - 2.87

[Pedro Gonzales]

An interesting article on EB5 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/foreign-citizens-making-big-investments-in-us-in-exchange-for-green-cards/2013/03/21/ecf250d2-8d72-11e2-b63f-f53fb9f2fcb4_story_3.html) about a non-Chinese investor and the reasons they went into the program.

What struck me in the article was the graphic which says EB5 visa usage in October - January was 3,073.

That's what i zoned in too. Annualizing it, we have 700 visas falling up to EB1 (1,000 according to the article).

The other thing that struck me was the fricking inefficiency of this system. Take the family profiled, the Dekkers. They have invested in a farm worth more than $500k (because that's the bank loaned them using the property as collateral) that employs 12 people in a rural area, and that doesn't qualify them for the EB5. Instead, they are forced to invest $500k in another project at a transaction cost of $84k. A 17% transaction cost on an investment that makes maybe a 1 to 3% return. I hate middlemen.

[openaccount]

interesting TSC I-485 Employment based processing time is now 4 months, i think in last couple of years this is the first time it is 4 months. this will effect number of approvals(more) in next 6 months.

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

[Spectator]

interesting TSC I-485 Employment based processing time is now 4 months, i think in last couple of years this is the first time it is 4 months. this will effect number of approvals(more) in next 6 months.

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.doopenaccount,

Thanks for the heads up.

For TSC, weren't all the I-140 processing times at 4 months before? I don't keep any historical records.

They are now all at September 27, 2012.

I know NSC always had I-140 processing times outside the 4 months target.

The other point to note is that the data is as at January 31, 2013 so the I-485 processing improvement has been in effect for nearly 2 months now.

[Vkkpnm]

Finally what will be the worst and best possible PD movement by Fy13? I see a lot of analysis lately based on porting/spillover count but not on PD.

SPEC/Matt/all guru: please predict.

[openaccount]

For TSC, weren't all the I-140 processing times at 4 months before? I don't keep any historical records.

They are now all at September 27, 2012.

I know NSC always had I-140 processing times outside the 4 months target.

The other point to note is that the data is as at January 31, 2013 so the I-485 processing improvement has been in effect for nearly 2 months now.
Spec,

yes you are correct i did not notice, TSC I-140 processing time was 4 months as of Dec31 2012 below is link.

https://www.visapro.com/Texas-Service-Center.asp

[MATT2012]

I will wait for one more demand data, to observe the trends. So sometime in the next two weeks. if current trends are any indicator it could very well stop between March and June 2008 time frame. This is where I am now. EB2 ROW(including M and P) range is predictable. EB5 is getting clearer. EB4 range is under control. So what is left open is EB1.

[Vkkpnm]

I will wait for one more demand data, to observe the trends. So sometime in the next two weeks. if current trends are any indicator it could very well stop between March and June 2008 time frame. This is where I am now. EB2 ROW(including M and P) range is predictable. EB5 is getting clearer. EB4 range is under control. So what is left open is EB1.
Thanks and hope next demand data is favorable.

[MATT2012]

I am copying an offline conversation with Spec,My question was about the spike in EB5 and possible reasons, and Spec answer is as follows..

Personally, I don't see it as a spike - rather a natural progression based on the increasing number of I-526 receipts.

The processing time for an I-526 is about a year, so we are probably only seeing the effects from receipts in about March 2012.

83% of EB5 cases are Consular Processed, which rises to 93% for Chinese cases that make up the majority of EB5 approvals. I don't think Concurrent filing of I-526 / I-485 is allowed.

To give you an idea of the increase in the number of I-526 receipts over time, here are the averages per FY for data I have.

FY2010 - 163 / month
FY2011 - 317 / month
FY2012 - 503 / month
FY2013 - 613 / month to date

The backlog of cases to be adjudicated has been rising as well.

At the end of
FY2010 it was 1,125
FY2011 - 3,347
FY2012 - 5,018
FY2013 - 6,075 in the last figures published

Barring major hiccups in the EB5 system (there are a few problems currently) it is only a matter of time when EB5-China becomes retrogressed. It may not be this year, but I wouldn't bet against it for FY2014.

On a side note from me, EB5 processing is getting better, so backlogs can consume visas faster...

[GCKnowHow]

This is a classic example of mis use or mis interpretation. The family mentioned should have been given the GC based on their time, money and knowledge they invested in last 15 years, rather than giving a GC based on some ponzy investment. They actually invested about quarter million and 15 years of their time and grew the business to employ 15.


An interesting article on EB5 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/foreign-citizens-making-big-investments-in-us-in-exchange-for-green-cards/2013/03/21/ecf250d2-8d72-11e2-b63f-f53fb9f2fcb4_story_3.html) about a non-Chinese investor and the reasons they went into the program.

What struck me in the article was the graphic which says EB5 visa usage in October - January was 3,073.

[Spectator]

This is a classic example of mis use or mis interpretation. The family mentioned should have been given the GC based on their time, money and knowledge they invested in last 15 years, rather than giving a GC based on some ponzy investment. They actually invested about quarter million and 15 years of their time and grew the business to employ 15.GCKnowHow,

I feel the same as you, if I am totally honest.

Unfortunately, they could have had no expectations about getting it based on the farm business. They came as E2, knowing there was no direct route to a GC.

Nonetheless, they worked harder and probably created more real direct new jobs through growing the farm business than the EB5 project. Plus it was an investment over a long period that surely is the sort of immigrant the USA should desire.

The E2 business was a lot more substantial than the normal pool cleaning company in Florida or franchise business that many E2 choose.

The difficulty would be creating something that would accommodate this sort of case, yet not be abused by people seeing it as a way to get a GC by investing half the lowest amount possible under EB5.

[Spectator]

A slight hint for the reason FB visas went unused in FY2012 is contained in the DHS U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2012 (http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ois_lpr_fr_2012_2.pdf) publication.


The number of new family-sponsored preference LPRs decreased from 2011 to 2012 because fewer individuals than expected appeared for scheduled interviews at US consular posts during the month of September.

I'm not sure that is the entire reason.

[MATT2012]

At the end of
FY2010 it was 1,125
FY2011 - 3,347
FY2012 - 5,018
FY2013 - 6,075 in the last figures published

Hi Spec,

Where did you find the above EB5 backlog data?

[gc_soon]

Also according to the report there was 698 unused visas in EB in FY2011. However I remember there was announcement in Sep 2011 during mid Sep 2011, that visas have been exhausted for the FY 2011. Is it possible those visas were also wasted because of Consular posts not using them?

[Spectator]

I am new here, but I do love the energy and enthusiasm.

Before I blog anything, my sincere Thanks to all here, who by their commitment is trying to help all of us make good decisions in their respective immigration journey!!

As Spec and all others, I am trying to crack the big nut - porting. The calculation below is based on porting trends from 2003 and 2004 EB3I and applying the similar percentage to rest of the years. The expected porting for rest of this fiscal is what I am trying to narrow down. In the last line I am assuming 80% of this year portings will be approved.

2003 -2004-------- 1450
2005---------------- 1184
2006---------------- 1439
2007---------------- 1606
2008 Fist Quarter---400
Total------ 6079
80% This year 4863

My numbers may not be correct, but together we should be able to make a range.Matt,

I'll preface this post by repeating what I have said before.

With the information available to us, it is not really possible to calculate porting. Even CO, with far more information is unable to do so.

Still, here's another approach to consider.

To date, PDs prior to September 2004 have been able to use the 250 visas / month that have been available. The approvals (based on Trackitt) have almost exclusively been from 2003 and 2004.

That would give a porting rate of 150 cases / PD year / month.

If the porting rate / PD year / month were similar for dates beyond August 2004, considering 13 months will have elapsed by July 2013, then there would be 150 * 13 = 1,950 cases per PD year.

2004 still has 4 months that has not been Current.
2007 can be considered to only have 6 months when people might reasonably have an existing I-485 to interfile.
2005 and 2006 are full years.

Potential porting numbers waiting to become Current by July 2013 could then be as high as (0.33 + 1 + 1 + 0.5) = 2.83 * 1,950 = ~ 5,500 cases who already have an I-485 with a PD of Sept 2004 to July 2007.

By July 2013, pre September 2004 cases could have used at least 2,250 approvals.

That is in addition to any numbers already existing in the Demand Data.

I have no thoughts on the % that might be approved within the July-September time frame.

In addition, there will be cases (mainly beyond July 2007) where no I-485 currently exists, but these new cases would have little to no chance of being approved within FY2013 IMO.

I hope that may be useful to you and insert your own assumptions, but please feel free to consider it a pile of stinking doo-doo as well. I certainly won't feel offended if you do.

[Spectator]

Also according to the report there was 698 unused visas in EB in FY2011. However I remember there was announcement in Sep 2011 during mid Sep 2011, that visas have been exhausted for the FY 2011. Is it possible those visas were also wasted because of Consular posts not using them?gc_soon,

I think that is the most likely explanation.

CO pre-allocates the visas to the Consulates. He has to take account of numbers remaining and the historical return rate from Consulates, so it is not an exact science. In the last month, he probably has to be quite conservative in order to guard against exceeding the EB allocation.

Higher returns than assumed would cause an under-usage of the visas, with no mechanism to re-allocate them in the FY.

[MATT2012]

Thanks I really appreciate it, I knew the difficulties in crunching the porting number, without any base data. I myself tried to use three different approaches. What I was looking for was a different perspective. For 2007 existing EB3I, I considered 30% of full year. Also gave the same weightage as you for the last 4 months of 2004. 2008 I gave 25% of 2007, as I am projecting until March.


Matt,

I'll preface this post by repeating what I have said before.

With the information available to us, it is not really possible to calculate porting. Even CO, with far more information is unable to do so.

Still, here's another approach to consider.

To date, PDs prior to September 2004 have been able to use the 250 visas / month that have been available. The approvals (based on Trackitt) have almost exclusively been from 2003 and 2004.

That would give a porting rate of 150 cases / PD year / month.

If the porting rate / PD year / month were similar for dates beyond August 2004, considering 13 months will have elapsed by July 2013, then there would be 150 * 13 = 1,950 cases per PD year.

2004 still has 4 months that has not been Current.
2007 can be considered to only have 6 months when people might reasonably have an existing I-485 to interfile.
2005 and 2006 are full years.

Potential porting numbers waiting to become Current by July 2013 could then be as high as (0.33 + 1 + 1 + 0.5) = 2.83 * 1,950 = ~ 5,500 cases who already have an I-485 with a PD of Sept 2004 to July 2007.

By July 2013, pre September 2004 cases could have used at least 2,250 approvals.

That is in addition to any numbers already existing in the Demand Data.

I have no thoughts on the % that might be approved within the July-September time frame.

In addition, there will be cases (mainly beyond July 2007) where no I-485 currently exists, but these new cases would have little to no chance of being approved within FY2013 IMO.

I hope that may be useful to you and insert your own assumptions, but please feel free to consider it a pile of stinking doo-doo as well. I certainly won't feel offended if you do.

[Spectator]

Thanks I really appreciate it, I knew the difficulties in crunching the porting number, without any base data. I myself tried to use three different approaches. What I was looking for was a different perspective. For 2007 existing EB3I, I considered 30% of full year. Also gave the same weightage as you for the last 4 months of 2004. 2008 I gave 25% of 2007, as I am projecting until March.Matt,

I'm glad there was something useful in the post.

As I tried to allude to in it, any case upgrading with a PD in the second half of 2007 or later will need to file an I-485 for the first time, since an EB3 has never had the chance to do so. Given the processing time, I doubt many will be ready to approve before the end of the FY, so I am discounting those as far as FY2013 numbers go. I'm not convinced that the first movement by CO will be into 2008 anyway.

Those able to file in FY2013 would need to accounted for in any future FY2014 porting calculation.

[MATT2012]

Due to new I-485 from 2007 and 2008, I came up with the 80% approval rate. I was looking at the pattern of visa dates movement in 2008, after the July 2007 fiasco. The controller kind of did similar to what he is doing now. I am also thinking multistep a halt between 2005/2006. A halt around July/August 2007 and finally into 2008. Not sure whether it will be two step or three step.

Matt,

I'm glad there was something useful in the post.

As I tried to allude to in it, any case upgrading with a PD in the second half of 2007 or later will need to file an I-485 for the first time, since an EB3 has never had the chance to do so. Given the processing time, I doubt many will be ready to approve before the end of the FY, so I am discounting those as far as FY2013 numbers go. I'm not convinced that the first movement by CO will be into 2008 anyway.

Those able to file in FY2013 would need to accounted for in any future FY2014 porting calculation.