EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014 [Archive] - Page 3

Spectator

02-14-2013, 10:52 PM

It is very surprising that no other forum, news place has discussed this SO VERY IMPORTANT NEWS of FB extra visas!!
I wonder, Spec maybe you should broadcast thsis news and make some real Green!
This is amazing!The kind words are becoming almost embarrassing!

I hope I don't end up with egg on my face. Worse than bad news is raising hopes, only for them to be dashed. I've provided the evidence of both the law and what has happened historically, so I am reasonably confident that it will happen.

I am a little surprised that no-one else has made the connection yet or "leaked" it to another site. In fact no-one else seems to realise the FY2012 figures have been published.

Any thanks should go to Q, who had the foresight to set up and fund the only website dedicated to Calculations & Predictions. There is nothing else like it on the web.

In addition, it is one of very few sites where people can have differing views, yet still discuss them in an adult, yet respectful way.

Also, the moderators do a great job of keeping the forum free of distractions like spam and moving posts to the relevant forum sections. It's unseen work, but it makes a big difference.

I don't really post anywhere else, nor particularly wish to.

It's so good to see some optimism again. I know it has been a very tough year to date for those in EB2-I.

In amongst the euphoria, spare a thought for all those in EB3. Two Countries are only moving at a week / month and even the best case is 6 years retrogression. Unlike EB2, they have no prospect of extra visas from spillover and have been sold short on their allocation for the last two years.

suninphx

02-15-2013, 01:57 AM

It is very surprising that no other forum, news place has discussed this SO VERY IMPORTANT NEWS of FB extra visas!!
I wonder, Spec maybe you should broadcast thsis news and make some real Green!
This is amazing!

One trackitt user posted link to Spec's post but people there could not appreciate the value. The subsequent replies to the post were very disappointing. But I am not surprised ...that's the case with many of the threads there.

qesehmk

02-15-2013, 08:18 AM

LoL! Spec - don't deflect this on me. This credit is entirely yours! You found out the FB numbers.

The kind words are becoming almost embarrassing!

I hope I don't end up with egg on my face. Worse than bad news is raising hopes, only for them to be dashed. I've provided the evidence of both the law and what has happened historically, so I am reasonably confident that it will happen.

I am a little surprised that no-one else has made the connection yet or "leaked" it to another site. In fact no-one else seems to realise the FY2012 figures have been published.

Any thanks should go to Q, who had the foresight to set up and fund the only website dedicated to Calculations & Predictions. There is nothing else like it on the web.

In addition, it is one of very few sites where people can have differing views, yet still discuss them in an adult, yet respectful way.

Also, the moderators do a great job of keeping the forum free of distractions like spam and moving posts to the relevant forum sections. It's unseen work, but it makes a big difference.

I don't really post anywhere else, nor particularly wish to.

It's so good to see some optimism again. I know it has been a very tough year to date for those in EB2-I.

In amongst the euphoria, spare a thought for all those in EB3. Two Countries are only moving at a week / month and even the best case is 6 years retrogression. Unlike EB2, they have no prospect of extra visas from spillover and have been sold short on their allocation for the last two years.

venkat

02-15-2013, 09:26 AM

Spec and Q,

Since everyone is so excited about this latest news (moving 18K odd visas from FB to EB) based on Spec's calculation, Is there anyway we can somehow pass this news to CO and the Visa Office?

This way they can start proactively planning 2-3 months in advance and move dates gradually (i.e. giving GCs based on priority date) rather than opening the flood gates in September and only few lucky ones getting it, wasting the remaining visas.

I feel this is very important data that needs to reach the visa office ASAP. We are talking about 18,000 additional visas and bulk of them are going to help EB2 India folks.

If there is any reader in this forum who have reputable attorneys (Murthy, Fragomen, Gotcher, Oh Law Firm etc) then we can start by sharing this news with them and ask them to pass it on to CO.

Thanks once again Spec and Q for this wonderful data and he great forum

LoL! Spec - don't deflect this on me. This credit is entirely yours! You found out the FB numbers.

kd2008

02-15-2013, 09:28 AM

For example, last year, the extra numbers were not announced until the September VB. Until then, it just said "at least 140,000". From the September 2012 VB:

CO created a lot of problems by releasing numbers too early last year, so he seems to be very cautious this year as a result.

Spec, I looked up the Sept 2008 bulletin and that was the year with 20K visas coming from FB to EB. Because of the FBI name check issues, EB2IC dates were at Aug 2006 and EB3 was U. But that year USCIS reported the extra numbers on July 22nd. I quote the Sept 2008 bulletin below:

E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Sections 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by the Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to officially determine of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while awaiting the CIS data, the Visa Office bases allocations on the minimum annual limits as outlined in Section 201 of the INA, along with estimates. On July 22nd, CIS provided the required data to the Visa Office.

The Department of State has determined the family and employment preference limits for FY-2008 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. The numerical limits for FY-2008 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-based preference limit: 162,704

Under the INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2008 the per-country limit is 27,209. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,774.

How do you think this will play out this year? First, will DoS move dates to reflect the 18K bonus across all EB categories? Second, will USCIS be able to process 18K extra approvals across all categories in the month of Sept? I do not know how they managed in 2008. The spill over beyond these numbers may be allocated earlier and hence we may see some movement in July and August for EB2I. At least I hope so.

PS: This is my 500th post on the forum. Yay!

geevikram

02-15-2013, 09:47 AM

The kind words are becoming almost embarrassing!

I hope I don't end up with egg on my face. Worse than bad news is raising hopes, only for them to be dashed. I've provided the evidence of both the law and what has happened historically, so I am reasonably confident that it will happen.

I am a little surprised that no-one else has made the connection yet or "leaked" it to another site. In fact no-one else seems to realise the FY2012 figures have been published.

Any thanks should go to Q, who had the foresight to set up and fund the only website dedicated to Calculations & Predictions. There is nothing else like it on the web.

In addition, it is one of very few sites where people can have differing views, yet still discuss them in an adult, yet respectful way.

Also, the moderators do a great job of keeping the forum free of distractions like spam and moving posts to the relevant forum sections. It's unseen work, but it makes a big difference.

I don't really post anywhere else, nor particularly wish to.

It's so good to see some optimism again. I know it has been a very tough year to date for those in EB2-I.

In amongst the euphoria, spare a thought for all those in EB3. Two Countries are only moving at a week / month and even the best case is 6 years retrogression. Unlike EB2, they have no prospect of extra visas from spillover and have been sold short on their allocation for the last two years.

I've been doing my math based on your numbers and I tend to agree with Q's predictions, if FB visas are not wasted after they spill-over to EB, we will likely clear out 2008. Thank you so much for your "discovery". It's been a frustrating wait but I hope to get it this year, God willing..

Thank you so much for your patient work. I know that you already have your GC and don't have to come over here...

openaccount

02-15-2013, 09:57 AM

How do you think this will play out this year? First, will DoS move dates to reflect the 18K bonus across all EB categories? Second, will USCIS be able to process 18K extra approvals across all categories in the month of Sept? I do not know how they managed in 2008. The spill over beyond these numbers may be allocated earlier and hence we may see some movement in July and August for EB2I. At least I hope so.

That may be the reason why PD predictions were given only until June in March VB.

gcpursuit

02-15-2013, 10:40 AM

Hello people,

I stumbled upon this forum quite recently. I should say people here are doing a remarkable job. Salute your efforts.

I visit Ron Gotcher's forum regularly and thats about it. I posted the detailed analysis from S on ron's forum to spread the word. I hope thats ok.

Thanks!

vizcard

02-15-2013, 10:57 AM

Spec, I looked up the Sept 2008 bulletin and that was the year with 20K visas coming from FB to EB. Because of the FBI name check issues, EB2IC dates were at Aug 2006 and EB3 was U. But that year USCIS reported the extra numbers on July 22nd. I quote the Sept 2008 bulletin below:

How do you think this will play out this year? First, will DoS move dates to reflect the 18K bonus across all EB categories? Second, will USCIS be able to process 18K extra approvals across all categories in the month of Sept? I do not know how they managed in 2008. The spill over beyond these numbers may be allocated earlier and hence we may see some movement in July and August for EB2I. At least I hope so.

PS: This is my 500th post on the forum. Yay!

The demand data shows there 30k+ waiting. I don't think they'll have a problem using the additional 18k.

kd2008

02-15-2013, 11:15 AM

The demand data shows there 30k+ waiting. I don't think they'll have a problem using the additional 18k.

Thankfully and mercifully so. But the logistically question still remains. From recent history, the most that USCIS has processed in a month is around 8K and this with the preadjudicated cases. So processing 18K will remain a challenge. Moreover, not all preadjudicated cases are approvable so the dates need to be moved a little more so as to not waste any numbers. These and there may be other challenges to cram it all in one month of September. If CIR passes, we may be in for a bonanza but it may also bring out the worst in USCIS as they may practically ignore everything else in order to tend to the deluge of 11 million cases.

YTeleven

02-15-2013, 12:39 PM

I see from the past VBs, this info was send to DOS by USCIS between Jun 1st week to Aug 1st week and DOS published the recalculated visa numbers in subsequent VBs : Aug or Sep VB of that year. So if they publish in Aug VB then it will be out in July 1st week and hence they will have entire quarter to plan for it. I don't think they will sought for fresh application for this allocation instead they will rely on clearing the backlogs i.e. pre-adjudicated cases.

Thankfully and mercifully so. But the logistically question still remains. From recent history, the most that USCIS has processed in a month is around 8K and this with the preadjudicated cases. So processing 18K will remain a challenge. Moreover, not all preadjudicated cases are approvable so the dates need to be moved a little more so as to not waste any numbers. These and there may be other challenges to cram it all in one month of September. If CIR passes, we may be in for a bonanza but it may also bring out the worst in USCIS as they may practically ignore everything else in order to tend to the deluge of 11 million cases.

YTeleven

02-15-2013, 12:58 PM

People have become so pessimistic after seeing last 5 VBs and it will take some time for them to come out of that inertia. Initially they disagree this, later realise it & then comes the acceptance. It might take atleast 1 to 2 months that the other sites realize and accept your predictions.

.
I am a little surprised that no-one else has made the connection yet or "leaked" it to another site. In fact no-one else seems to realise the FY2012 figures have been published.

gs1968

02-15-2013, 02:50 PM

Spectator

02-15-2013, 02:58 PM

A different viewpoint is that the EB visas lost in earlier years which we are trying to recapture with various bills are coming back to the EB category through this method.I am not sure how many EB visas were lost through all those years but > 50000 have come back into this category according to Spec's calculationsgs1968,

In fact 180k visas have already been recaptured due to AC21 (130k) and for Schedule A (50k).

After those are taken into account, up until this year, EB has received slightly more visas back from FB than they have been wasted in the period since 1992.

sdesh005

02-15-2013, 03:34 PM

Just saw someone posted this on trackitt, funny the way it was mentioned.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1190734265/18k-extra-fb-visas-from-fy2012-to-eb-in-fy201

skpanda

02-15-2013, 03:37 PM

Spec..

thanks for all the hardwork and giving us a good news!! Possible 13K greencards for EB2I is a great news!

I am wondering why you have used the work 'back'. Does that mean green card numbers from EB has moved to FB sometime back?

gs1968,

In fact 180k visas have already been recaptured due to AC21 (130k) and for Schedule A (50k).

After those are taken into account, up until this year, EB has received slightly more visas back from FB than they have been wasted in the period since 1992.

Spectator

02-15-2013, 03:52 PM

Spec..

thanks for all the hardwork and giving us a good news!! Possible 13K greencards for EB2I is a great news!

I am wondering why you have used the work 'back'. Does that mean green card numbers from EB has moved to FB sometime back?skpanda,

The word is probably superfluous.

The reason I used it was because of the circular nature of who receives what visas.

Although FB receive any unused EB visas (in the same way as EB receive unused FB visas), very rarely can they benefit from them. This is because the fairly complex FB calculation usually results in a figure lower than the minimum allowed 226k (due to high numbers of Immediate Relative approvals).

That is not the case with spare visas flowing to EB from FB. EB has a very simple calculation and always gets the full benefit.

So, FB do have wasted visas to recapture (ie they never increased the numbers available to them), whereas the reality is that EB don't, since the wasted visas effectively came back to them from FB.

If we get them - it's a bonus.

YTeleven

02-15-2013, 04:25 PM

Here is an explanation from DOS how they arrived at the FB & EB limit in the year 2010:
Family-sponsored Preferences Limit
-----------------------------------
The annual limit is calculated as 480,000 minus the number of aliens who were issued visas or who adjusted to LPR status in the previous fiscal year as
1) immediate relatives of U.S. citizens,
2) children born subsequent to the issuance of a visa to an accompanying parent,and
3) children born abroad to lawful permanent residents on temporary trips abroad minus
4) certain categories of aliens paroled into the United States in the second preceding fiscal year plus
5) unused employment preferences in the preceding year.

The family-sponsored preference limit may not fall below a minimum of 226,000 in any year. The number of legal permanent residents
issued visas or who adjusted status in 2009 under categories 1 to 4 above was 547,193. There were zero unused employment preferences in 2009.
The calculated limit for family-sponsored preferences in 2010 was –67,193 (480,000 minus 547,193 plus 0).
Since this number was below 226,000, the family-sponsored preference limit was set at 226,000

Employment-based Preference Limit
----------------------------------
The annual limit is equal to 140,000 plus unused family-sponsored preferences in the previous fiscal year.
There were 10,657 unused family-sponsored preferences in 2009. The 2010 employment- based preference limit was 150,657.
The limit is 28.6 percent of the total for each of the first three employment preferences and 7.1 percent for each of the last two preferences.

Per Country and Dependent Area Limits
------------------------------------
A limit of 7 percent of the total family-sponsored and employment-based preferences is set for independent countries, and a limit of 2 percent is set for dependent areas. The 2010 per country
limit for independent foreign states was 26,365 (7 percent of 376,657 or 226,000 plus 150,657), and the limit for dependencies was 7,533 (2 percent of 376,657).

YTeleven

02-15-2013, 05:14 PM

Have a closure look at the current DD. It has already accounted these extra visas and confirms the total EB Visas for 2013 as 158k. So this is official now.

tendlya

02-15-2013, 05:17 PM

Looks like DOS took into account the extra visas from FB category.

Someone on trackitt posted this http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1190734265/18k-extra-fb-visas-from-fy2012-to-eb-in-fy201/page/last_page .

Ok I have some confirmed NEWS for you guys.... Check the link http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDeman...

on 02/11 - the same pdf that I saved had total EB world wide limit was 140,000
Today 02/15 - The number changed to 158,000

EB2I changed from 2803 to 3163 - so only 360 extra was allocated!!!

openaccount

02-15-2013, 05:17 PM

just now saw this in other forum DD is updated with latest limits.

Spec, CO might have looked at your post and updated DD:)

So this confirms 2 things:
1)CO might have missed this information or did not know about this when he put out those comments in March VB
2)There is pretty good chance for dates to move in Q3 may be in May/June at least July

E1
3,164
3,164
45,188
E2
3,163
3,163
45,188
E3/EW
2,863
3,163
45,188**
E4/SR
785
785
11,218
E5
85
785
11,218
Total
10,060*
11,060
158,000

bvsamrat

02-15-2013, 05:20 PM

Congrats Spec. We are proud of you

Modified to 158,000 now from 140,000

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[QUOTE=YTeleven;32954]Here is an explanation from DOS how they arrived at the FB & EB limit in the year 2010:
Family-sponsored Preferences Limit

Spectator

02-15-2013, 05:20 PM

Have a closure look at the current DD. It has already accounted these extra visas and confirms the total EB Visas for 2013 as 158k. So this is official now.YTeleven,

Yes, it has just been amended.

I have the original March DD document that was last modified on February 08, 2013 at 13:08:28

The new version was last amended on February 15, 2013 at 17:17:29 by "oppenheim" according to the PDF properties. That's only a few minutes ago.

All Demand Data Documents ever published can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2060-DoS-Demand-Data-Archive). I try to update it every month.

openaccount

02-15-2013, 05:21 PM

Have a closure look at the current DD. It has already accounted these extra visas and confirms the total EB Visas for 2013 as 158k. So this is official now.

It was not updated when it was released last week. I think it was some time yesterday or today.

YTeleven

02-15-2013, 05:27 PM

Spec,

Yes. you are correct. Even I've a copy of mine of 08Feb and it has 140k only.
WOW, seems CO is watching this thread....

YTeleven,

Yes, it has just been amended.

I have the original March DD document that was last modified on February 08, 2013 at 13:08:28

The new version was last amended on February 15, 2013 at 17:17:29 by "oppenheim" according to the PDF properties. That's only a few minutes ago.

suninphx

02-15-2013, 05:31 PM

YTeleven,

Yes, it has just been amended.

I have the original March DD document that was last modified on February 08, 2013 at 13:08:28

The new version was last amended on February 15, 2013 at 17:17:29 by "oppenheim" according to the PDF properties. That's only a few minutes ago.

How cool is that .. next bulletin (comments section ) could be inetresting

snvlgopal

02-15-2013, 05:47 PM

I am exited to know about the overflow from FB.
Could some one please tell me if EB3 I will move more than a week now. In other words Does it help me anyway, my PD is Apr 2003(EB3I)

Thanks

YTeleven

02-15-2013, 05:50 PM

Yes. Its really interesting to see the next VB.
Probably CO is getting ready for spillover from next month onwards otherwise I don't see any urgency in updateing a already published DD with newer data.

How cool is that .. next bulletin (comments section ) could be inetresting

Spectator

02-15-2013, 06:07 PM

I am exited to know about the overflow from FB.
Could some one please tell me if EB3 I will move more than a week now. In other words Does it help me anyway, my PD is Apr 2003(EB3I)

Thankssnvlgopal,

Welcome to the forum.

Unfortunately, I think it will have very little impact for EB3-I.

The extra numbers only increase the EB3-I allocation (7%) from 2,803 to 3,163 according to the revised numbers in the DD document. That is only the equivalent of an extra 30 visas per month.

Without actual spillover visas, it is very difficult for substantial movement for anybody in EB3. Unfortunately, that is not a realistic prospect anytime in the near future, unless CIR passes.

snvlgopal

02-15-2013, 06:16 PM

Thanks Spec, hmm my wait still continues :)

triplet

02-15-2013, 06:27 PM

Spec, what a find with the FB visas, you're turning into a legend now whether you like it or not :) It is perhaps testimony to how good you can get at doing something when you pursue it with passion, I'm guessing you enjoy the problem solving. Well, the forum is lucky to have you! I hope people respond with the same passion (in a positive way) if things take a turn for the worse.

venkat

02-15-2013, 06:32 PM

Spec,

What a genius you are?

You will never believe how many EB2 India families are going to have a happy long weekend (Monday is a holiday for me)

You deserve all the credit and you are awesome man...

As someone said why should CO amend the demand data to include the additional visas for the demand data this is already published. Perhaps he is already started making plans....

There is no doubt someone must have told him about this new development in the last day or two...Remember my post this morning to make sure we need to spread the word to 'CO and the visa office'...

Now the only thing that is needed is to make sure all of these extra visas get utilized and turn into GREEN CARDS

Will he publish a new visa bulletin (amended one) to remove the negative projection he had made?

Thanks to everyone..what a great forum....

YTeleven,

Yes, it has just been amended.

I have the original March DD document that was last modified on February 08, 2013 at 13:08:28

The new version was last amended on February 15, 2013 at 17:17:29 by "oppenheim" according to the PDF properties. That's only a few minutes ago.

All Demand Data Documents ever published can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2060-DoS-Demand-Data-Archive). I try to update it every month.

gs1968

02-15-2013, 07:43 PM

To spec
I saw this on ILW today and it says that the EB-5 usage may increase in the Q4.Hopefully this will not impact spillover to EB2

http://discuss.ilw.com/content.php?1337-Article-Update-on-Wait-Lines-for-Chinese-EB-5-Investors-Is-it-Really-Good-News-by-Bernard-Wolfsdorf

pdmay2008

02-15-2013, 10:00 PM

snvlgopal,

Welcome to the forum.

Unfortunately, I think it will have very little impact for EB3-I.

The extra numbers only increase the EB3-I allocation (7%) from 2,803 to 3,163 according to the revised numbers in the DD document. That is only the equivalent of an extra 30 visas per month.

Without actual spillover visas, it is very difficult for substantial movement for anybody in EB3. Unfortunately, that is not a realistic prospect anytime in the near future, unless CIR passes.

If CO applies quarterly spill over like he did last year all of the extra numbers from eb4,5,1 comes to EB2 right away as those categories are already current. I guess CO will assess current usage and future demand based on history for EB4 , EB5 & EB1 and decide what would be the date for EB2I in next bulletin. China is already at 15-FEB-08, he will try to bring EB2I also to the same date. In any case he will do controlled movement as he already knows the existing demand.

Let's hope for the best. Spec your finding making rounds every where now and you are a STAR.

redsox2009

02-15-2013, 11:10 PM

My special Thanks to Spectator for giving valuable info which no other websites/lawyers were able to provide us.

erikbond101

02-16-2013, 12:06 AM

Thank you Spectator. You deserve all the praise bestowed on you.
You have already provided wonderful analysis with all spillover category.
I still have some confusion. Since all the unused FB visa, DOS has already divided across. So we will only know in last quarter how many visas will be available for EB2-IC.
Since DOS/USCIS has already adjusted their demand data. Can you please adjust prediction on spilovers for my curious mind?

EB1 - 5K?? (45188)
EB4 - 2K?? (11218)
Eb3 - 00 (45188)
EB5 - ?? (11218)
EB2WW - ?? (41188 - 6326 = 38862)

I'm not sure how accurate my calculation is but if EB2I will recive another 13K this fiscal year, date may reach March 2008 and then for each 1500-1800 extra numbers it will move another month.

Thank you again

YTeleven

02-16-2013, 05:12 AM

snvlgopal,
Assuming no changes to the current immigration laws and considering current porting rate and existing demand till APR'2003, your PD may become current sometime around JUL'14.

I am exited to know about the overflow from FB.
Could some one please tell me if EB3 I will move more than a week now. In other words Does it help me anyway, my PD is Apr 2003(EB3I)

Thanks

natvyas

02-16-2013, 08:03 AM

kkruna

02-16-2013, 04:19 PM

The news of additional visa from FB category is a welcome relief after 5 months of gloom and doom. Now that this is a certainty given that the March DD document has been modified to reflect this, I was wondering how would the CO handle the timing of the SO reallocation which now has two sources 1) FB and 2) EB.

Now that there are "formally" more numbers, we can possibly deduce how many porters are actually there whenever they move the dates. Porting has been hyped a lot by CO, and it would be good to see the actual numbers.

harapatta2012

02-16-2013, 09:05 PM

Even after 4 days, news on other places is not released about FB xtra visa.WOW!!
Murthy has posted , dismal putlook for eb2 YESTERDAY, feb15th..Murthy...wake up...Others..come on!!!this is IT.
Anyways...I am glad that I have been following this forum. It is huge help..and this instance has proven it more than ever.

helooo

02-16-2013, 09:27 PM

Hi
I am new to this site but was very happy to see some hope.When do we think the Movement for June 2008 EB2I?

Thanks in Advance.

Spectator

02-17-2013, 10:11 AM

ontheedge

02-17-2013, 09:28 PM

Spec, we cannot thank you enough for your analysis and painstaking data gathering! You are a blessing to us on this forum.

Spectator

02-17-2013, 09:42 PM

I didn't see anyone else on this forum mention this (apologies if I did miss it).

The Annual Numerical Limits (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf) document on the DOS website was also updated on February 15, 2013 to reflect 158k visas for EB are now available.

erikbond101

02-18-2013, 12:05 AM

Thank you. again

longwait100

02-18-2013, 10:52 AM

Thanks a bunch Spec for the excellent work!

I hope these additional GCs changes the outlook for EB2I in CO's mind soon. When do you expect DOS start moving the cut-off dates forward for EB2I and roughly how much do you expect the first forward move to be?

Thanks again for the superb work you been doing for the legal immigration community!

helooo

02-18-2013, 10:54 AM

Sent you a PM Spectator

Thank you!

sandyn1116

02-18-2013, 11:12 AM

dreamer

02-18-2013, 11:52 AM

sandyn1116,

Welcome to the forum!!

We did get spill over in 2012 and dates moved to 01 May 2010 before it become unavailable in Jun 2012 visa bulletin. Dates were moved too aggressively than available Visas, so they had to make them Unavailable until they can come-up with priority date of 01 Sep 2004 for next FY in October 2012 Visa bulletin. Dates were struck pretty-much around there for more than 6 months now using up available monthly visa quota by porting/pending cases.

Hope this helps.

Gurus, please correct me if I missed/misstated something.

I am new to this forum.. With all the discussion on spill over, didnt we get spill over in 2012 also? If yes then how did EB2 I end up in Unavailable state or is it that there was no spill over last year?

pdmay2008

02-18-2013, 11:56 AM

I am new to this forum.. With all the discussion on spill over, didnt we get spill over in 2012 also? If yes then how did EB2 I end up in Unavailable state or is it that there was no spill over last year?

Last year CO started releasing Spill Over numbers ahead of time(Nov to April) to build the pipe line. He did not have enough clarity on what would be the actual demand at that time. He released more numbers to EB2 I than what he is supposed to, that made EB2 I unavailable at the end of the year.

Spectator

02-18-2013, 11:58 AM

Sent you a PM.
Thank you!General questions should be posted in the forum.

Thanks a bunch Spec for the excellent work!

I hope these additional GCs changes the outlook for EB2I in CO's mind soon. When do you expect DOS start moving the cut-off dates forward for EB2I and roughly how much do you expect the first forward move to be?

Thanks again for the superb work you been doing for the legal immigration community!longwait100,

The only actual extra visas available now (based on official documents) are due to the increase in 7% between 40,040 and 45,188 for the 6 months (Oct-Mar) to date.

That is (3,163-2,803)/2 = 180 visas

For a single month, there might be 285+180 = 465 visas available if CO decides to play "catch up".

Given CO mentioned that retrogression from 01SEP04 was possible without the extra visas, I think the extra numbers will not have a great effect and the Cut Off Date is still likely to remain at 01SEP04 through June 2013. If there is any forward movement, it is likely to be very small.

Spillover remains a potential bonus and I don't think CO will release it until the July 2013 VB. He released it too early last year and was burnt. By June 2013 (when the VB is released), he should have a better idea of what the other Categories (EB1 and EB2-WW in particular) are likely to use.

I am new to this forum.. With all the discussion on spill over, didnt we get spill over in 2012 also? If yes then how did EB2 I end up in Unavailable state or is it that there was no spill over last year?sandyn1116,

EB2-India received 16,923 spillover visas last year (19,726 in total). CO started releasing spillover from the beginning of the year.

Unfortunately, CO allocated far more visas to EB2-I than were actually available.

When he realised this (too late), he had to make EB2-I Unavailable and retrogress EB2-WW to stay within the numbers available for EB2.

For this year, to date, CO appears to have been only using the initial EB2-I allocation of 2,803 visas (now raised to 3,173). Because 27% can be allocated in each of the first 3 quarters, that was 252 visas per month (now 285 visas per month).

There have been sufficient EB2-I cases per month with a PD before September 2004 to use that number of visas, so the Cut Off Date has not moved.

geevikram

02-18-2013, 12:19 PM

Hi
I am new to this site but was very happy to see some hope.When do we think the Movement for June 2008 EB2I?

Thanks in Advance.

Welcome to the forum. Nice to see lots of new people here. Q and spec are just awesome beyond words.

pdmay2008

02-18-2013, 01:26 PM

General questions should be posted in the forum.

longwait100,

The only actual extra visas available now (based on official documents) are due to the increase in 7% between 40,040 and 45,188 for the 6 months (Oct-Mar) to date.

That is (3,163-2,803)/2 = 180 visas

For a single month, there might be 285+180 = 465 visas available if CO decides to play "catch up".

Given CO mentioned that retrogression from 01SEP04 was possible without the extra visas, I think the extra numbers will not have a great effect and the Cut Off Date is still likely to remain at 01SEP04 through June 2013. If there is any forward movement, it is likely to be very small.

Spillover remains a potential bonus and I don't think CO will release it until the July 2013 VB. He released it too early last year and was burnt. By June 2013 (when the VB is released), he should have a better idea of what the other Categories (EB1 and EB2-WW in particular) are likely to use.

sandyn1116,

EB2-India received 16,923 spillover visas last year (19,726 in total). CO started releasing spillover from the beginning of the year.

Unfortunately, CO allocated far more visas to EB2-I than were actually available.

When he realised this (too late), he had to make EB2-I Unavailable and retrogress EB2-WW to stay within the numbers available for EB2.

For this year, to date, CO appears to have been only using the initial EB2-I allocation of 2,803 visas (now raised to 3,173). Because 27% can be allocated in each of the first 3 quarters, that was 252 visas per month (now 285 visas per month).

There have been sufficient EB2-I cases per month with a PD before September 2004 to use that number of visas, so the Cut Off Date has not moved.

Spec, I agree on what you said on when CO is going to release Spill over numbers.

But it is always possible that he can play the number game again ahead of time based on these extra numbers. It is all based on what is the current demand trend and any possible spikes in demand from other categories. Last year scenario was different, where he did not have enough data on the demand from EB2I/C. Now he has clear picture on what is the actual demand and he can do controlled movement ahead of time to manage USCIS workload.

bvsamrat

02-18-2013, 01:41 PM

IMHO, Last years inventory was low, hence the action to extend the PD. Now there are enough inventory and demand. More over demand increase is unpredictablle that it matches with monthly allocation about 300 per month. If spill over applied in next month itself, the dates may once again retrogress in August/Septmber. if the numbers of porters exceed the so called controlled monthly allocation of spill over.

Only if we know the number of EB3-EB2 upgrades before 2007 and waiting ready to interfile, then the situation would be clearer.

Spec, I agree on what you said on when CO is going to release Spill over numbers.

But it is always possible that he can play the number game again ahead of time based on these extra numbers. It is all based on what is the current demand trend and any possible spikes in demand from other categories. Last year scenario was different, where he did not have enough data on the demand from EB2I/C. Now he has clear picture on what is the actual demand and he can do controlled movement ahead of time to manage USCIS workload.

Andy Garcia

02-18-2013, 02:57 PM

Spectator

02-18-2013, 06:24 PM

Spectator,

I still can't understand the reasoning behind EB1 and EB2-ROW spillover estimates on the front page. EB1 spillover seems too high and EB2-ROW seems too low. For EB1 I understand the Kazarian effect but in the years before it the spillover wasn't as high as the estimate. Also, no one seems to take into account that EB2-ROW PERM (approved) applications have had 43% reduction over last year i.e. 2012 compared to 2011.Andy,

I'll try to explain my reasoning. You don't have to agree with it.

EB1

In FY2011, EB1 had 25.2k approvals. It is likely this was artificially low due to the delay introduced by the Kazarian ruling. As a result, it is likely that some EB1 cases were backlogged and rolled in to FY2012.

In FY2012, EB1 had 39.4k approvals. It is at least possible that this number is artificially high due to the rollover from FY2011.

My guess for EB1 approvals in FY2013 is 35k. Normally that would result in 5k spillover. Due to visas allocated to EB1 from the extra FB visas, that becomes 10k.

It is a guess. The official information on EB1 is non-existent. Trackitt is a slightly unreliable source because:

a) EB1 approvals can be "lumpy".
b) There are very few non Indian approvals.
c) The Indian approvals are mainly EB1C.

FY2013 is the first "proper" year since Kazarian. No-one knows what a "normal" year looks like. We might speculate that the numbers will be lower than the 41k seen in both FY2009 and FY2010. I agree that there is some chance of approvals being higher than I am assuming.

Overall EB1 approvals are currently running lower on Trackitt than the same time last year (but there are very few non Indian approvals). EB1-I approvals are currently running at the same rate as last year. On Trackitt, EB1-I approvals account for 87% of approvals. In real life, last year, EB1-I accounted for 24% of approvals.

EB2-ROW

Approvals for EB2-ROW (and EB2-Philippines) have been extremely high so far compared to a normal year. Even if they now progress at a more normal rate, they will probably exceed the allocation. There is some risk that they will use more than I am assuming. Equally, there is a risk they will use a lower amount.

I think you are misunderstanding the EB2-ROW PERM figures for 2012. They do not represent a full calendar year.

a) Only FY2012 PERM approvals are included. This totally excludes October-December 2012 PD.
b) Because of PERM processing times, the figure only includes PDs for January-June 2012 and part of July 2012.

The 9.3k only represents little over 50% of what the final figure might be. That compares to the 2011 figure to date of 17.0k.

The 2012 figures appear to be very similar to 2011. Only time will give the true answer. They certainly do not represent a drop of 43%.

Prabhas

02-18-2013, 09:05 PM

Thank you Spec and I see that the DD is now updated with these additional numbers..

Cheers,

vizcard

02-19-2013, 10:07 AM

For the EB2IC cases with PDs in the 2nd half of 2008 (especially Q4), remember that it is in your best interest that the spillover is allocated very late in FY13. This will minimize the impact of porting. If you are on the borderline, every visa counts.

Similarly for EB3IC folks, you need to be ready to pull the trigger as soon as you become current.

venkat

02-19-2013, 12:19 PM

Excellent Point Vizcard. I think i understood it for the most part. Can you confirm my below understanding based on the below examples?

(1) Mr X, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(2) Mr Y, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'
(3) Mr A, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(4) Mr B, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'

Assuming (1) and (3) happens then its advantage for Mr X, Similarly if (2) and (4) happens then its advantage for Mr B. Correct?

Let me know if someone can explain what exactly happens once the dates become current (for a porter vs a regular guy).

For the EB2IC cases with PDs in the 2nd half of 2008 (especially Q4), remember that it is in your best interest that the spillover is allocated very late in FY13. This will minimize the impact of porting. If you are on the borderline, every visa counts.

Similarly for EB3IC folks, you need to be ready to pull the trigger as soon as you become current.

vizcard

02-19-2013, 12:49 PM

Excellent Point Vizcard. I think i understood it for the most part. Can you confirm my below understanding based on the below examples?

(1) Mr X, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(2) Mr Y, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'
(3) Mr A, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(4) Mr B, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'

Assuming (1) and (3) happens then its advantage for Mr X, Similarly if (2) and (4) happens then its advantage for Mr B. Correct?

Let me know if someone can explain what exactly happens once the dates become current (for a porter vs a regular guy).

Assuming the porter has already filed their paperwork, the EB3 porter always has an advantage over an EB2.

redsox2009

02-19-2013, 01:01 PM

Here is the Perm Approvals per year for last five years and Q1 of 2013.

These are not based on the Priority Dates, these numbers are based on the FY.

Fisical Year
Total
India
China
ROW

Certified/
Certified-Expired
WirthDrawn
Denied
Total
Certified/
Certified-Expired
WirthDrawn
Denied
Total
%
Certified/
Certified-Expired
WirthDrawn
Denied
Total
%
Certified/
Certified-Expired
WirthDrawn
Denied
Total
%

2008
49205
2063
10729
61997
16569
593
1676
18838
33.67341
3328
106
353
3787
6.76354
29308
1364
8700
39372
59.56305

2009
29502
3389
5356
38247
11387
1174
971
13532
38.59738
2112
205
199
2516
7.15884
16003
2010
4186
22199
54.24378

2010
70237
2736
8439
81412
28930
1085
1981
31996
41.18912
4052
168
338
4558
5.76904
37255
1483
6120
44858
53.04184

2011
59863
2960
10384
73207
31273
1356
2944
35573
52.24095
3448
158
425
4031
5.75982
25142
1446
7015
33603
41.99923

2012
54616
3269
5908
63793
30306
1781
2422
34509
55.48923
3354
180
251
3785
6.14106
20956
1308
3235
25499
38.36971

2013
12123
680
1532
14335
6935

6935
57.20531
791

791
6.52479
4397

4397
36.2699

qesehmk

02-19-2013, 01:05 PM

The bigger difference really is that a porter can become current just by virtue of filing in EB2 & without waiting for visa bulletin dates to move.

But other than that - I don't really see much difference because most likely in the scenarios you have painted - everybody would be preadjudicated and so each person should get a GC within 485 processing timeframe (in fact much earlier since 485 would be preadjudicated).

Excellent Point Vizcard. I think i understood it for the most part. Can you confirm my below understanding based on the below examples?

(1) Mr X, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(2) Mr Y, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'
(3) Mr A, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(4) Mr B, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'

Assuming (1) and (3) happens then its advantage for Mr X, Similarly if (2) and (4) happens then its advantage for Mr B. Correct?

Let me know if someone can explain what exactly happens once the dates become current (for a porter vs a regular guy).

bvsamrat

02-19-2013, 01:17 PM

Q. Can you please clarify

Suppose a Porter with PD in 2006 from EB3, gets approved EB2-I-140 in in February 2013 and does he get adjudicated automatically?.
Can he interfile for I-485 change(EB3 to EB2) when his PD is not current? (as of now Sep. 2004)?

The bigger difference really is that a porter can become current just by virtue of filing in EB2 & without waiting for visa bulletin dates to move.

But other than that - I don't really see much difference because most likely in the scenarios you have painted - everybody would be preadjudicated and so each person should get a GC within 485 processing timeframe (in fact much earlier since 485 would be preadjudicated).

qesehmk

02-19-2013, 01:35 PM

The EB3 date need to be current in EB2 in order to port. In this case since EB3 date is in 2006 and EB2 date is still in 2004, clearly this is not eligible for interfiling. But as the EB2 dates advance in 2008-09 by Sep 2013, the interfiling is ok even if the applicant's PD on EB2 related 140 would be in 2011 or 12. Does that make sense?

p.s. - In my earlier comment I meant to say "possibly can become current" as opposed to "does become current".

Q. Can you please clarify

Suppose a Porter with PD in 2006 from EB3, gets approved EB2-I-140 in in February 2013 and does he get adjudicated automatically?.
Can he interfile for I-485 change(EB3 to EB2) when his PD is not current? (as of now Sep. 2004)?

bvsamrat

02-19-2013, 01:45 PM

fountainhead

02-19-2013, 03:03 PM

Spectator

02-19-2013, 03:26 PM

Hi,

I am new to this thread and had a general question. Say the visa bulletin date for EB-2 moves to Jan 15, 2009 - will someone with a PD of Jan 15, 2009 be considered for approval, or will it only include people with PDs Jan 14, 2009 and earlier?

Thank you!fountainhead,

The PD must be EARLIER THAN the Cut Off Date to be considered Current. An I-485 can only be approved if it is Current.

In your example, Jan 15, 2009 PD would NOT be Current and could not be approved.

Spectator

02-19-2013, 03:41 PM

Thanks and clear. What i guess is that:
Once current, interfiling process/approval/adjudicating process makes a delay of about 30 days to 90 days, which gives advantage to already adjudicated cases with same PD and these ported cases may get added to next years demandbvsamrat,

I have been thinking about this too.

I am not sure one case has any advantage over another. Possibly, the porting I-485 has a slightly higher chance of an RFE.

a) Both cases will probably have to be recalled from storage.

b) In both cases, the IBIS check will probably have expired and need to be requested again.

c) Both have a pre-adjudicated I-485 (at least up to July 2007). The only difference is the interfiling (requesting a visa under EB2), which doesn't involve any extra adjudication of the I-485.

d) Requesting a new visa number in IVAMS is instantaneous if Current and takes no more time than using IVAMS to use a visa allocated at the time of pre-adjudication.

In our hearts, we all know USCIS will just pick the "low hanging fruit".

I think it will be luck of the draw and depend on which case lands on the IO desk first. If dates move forward too fast, we will see a repeat of last year, where late PD are approved and earlier PD miss out.

Kanmani

02-19-2013, 04:15 PM

I think it will be luck of the draw and depend on which case lands on the IO desk first. If dates move forward too fast, we will see a repeat of last year, where late PD are approved and earlier PD miss out.

Spec,

Could you please elaborate the above statement with respect to non-porters who filed their I-485 ? Do we get our visa number via IVAMS once we are current? My guess is the spill-over allocation is paper based.

I think visa number allocation after pre-adjudication will go strictly by priority date. What is your take?

longwait100

02-19-2013, 04:15 PM

Spec, the very thought of the repeat of last year worries me, as my PD of Aug 2007 got run over due to this random approval strategy then. Hope it does not happen again to me and anyone else.

venkat

02-19-2013, 04:19 PM

I hope CO takes a sensible approach in allocating or making sure USCIS grants GC based on Priority Dates vs any other logic. He should be fair to people who are waiting in the line longer...

First he should determine the date he is going to push the PDs, then get to that date logically in the last 3 months of this Financial Year (July,Aug and Sep) so that PDs in late 2009 and early 2010 don't get GC before the poor souls in 2008.

Spec,
Nice to hear the term 'low hanging fruit' after a long time..It was exactly one year back that this term was used extensively in this forum...I think it is going to start again pretty soon :-)

In our hearts, we all know USCIS will just pick the "low hanging fruit".

I think it will be luck of the draw and depend on which case lands on the IO desk first. If dates move forward too fast, we will see a repeat of last year, where late PD are approved and earlier PD miss out.

bvsamrat

02-19-2013, 04:33 PM

venkat

02-19-2013, 04:46 PM

Based on the procedure listed below it appears that DOS will tell USCIS which per-adjudicated cases get visa (GC) first:

If USCIS requests an immigrant visa number for a case that is not current, the request is moved to the "pending" file with the DOS. Data from this pending file is used by the DOS to calculate the appropriate cutoff dates for the backlogged categories in the Visa Bulletin each month.

Cases placed in the pending demand category are processed as immigrant visa numbers become available. The DOS communicates with the USCIS regarding the A numbers of the cases for which visa numbers have been authorized. These cases are then processed to completion and green cards are then issued by the USCIS.

This seems to be a streamlined process, with actual visa numbers tracked, issued, and assigned to particular green card cases as part of the approval process.

Bottom line: As per this USCIS randomly picking low hanging fruits should not be the case at least going forward.

For additional details regarding this theory see Ron's "What is "per-adjudication"?

http://www.imminfo.com/News/2012-10-31/what-is-preadjudication.html

Lets hope DOS and USCIS together enforce/implement strict rule of FIFO starting this year...

Spectator

02-19-2013, 04:53 PM

Spec. What is IBIS check? and what is the general expiry period?. If this takes time, then even general non porting EB2 2006/2007 PD guys are at disadvantage compared to latest filed 2008 Pd guys who may not need IBIS check (only if I know what is IBIS?)

bvsamrat,

I b) In both cases, the IBIS check will probably have expired and need to be requested again.IBIS (Interagency Border Inspection System) is part of the background check.

Originally it was only valid for 35 days. Subsequently it was extended to 90 days and now appears to be 180 days.

From the AFM (section 10.3)

(b) IBIS Checks .

The Interagency Border Inspection System (IBIS) is a multi-agency effort to improve border enforcement and facilitate inspections of applicants for admission into the United States. Its usage was recently expanded to include background investigations on persons seeking immigration benefits. A complete IBIS query also includes a concurrent check of the NCIC Hot Files. An approved NCIC check queries the following databases:

· Wants and Warrants;

· Missing Persons;

· Violent Gang and Terrorists;

· Protection Order File;

· Registered Sexual Offender;

· Secret Service Presidential Protection;

· Foreign Fugitives;

· Deported Felons; and

· Supervised Release File.

At this time, NCIC III checks are not permitted by the FBI in the benefits arena.

IBIS queries are conducted to assist law enforcement agencies to identify risks to the community and/or to national security and to prevent ineligible aliens from obtaining immigration benefits. Employees working with benefit applications in application support centers, asylum offices, district offices, and service centers, who have the required security clearances for the Interagency Border Inspection System (IBIS), and who have been trained and certified, currently conduct IBIS queries as part of the adj udication process. More specific procedural information on IBIS queries is contained in the Immigration Services Division (ISD) IBIS SOP, which is located in Appendix 10-6 of this field manual.

Note 1
Under no circumstances shall classified information or other restricted information be divulged to the applicant, petitioner, or any other unauthorized party (see Chapter 10.19 of this field manual).

Note 2
IBIS records that are not owned by USCIS are covered by the third agency rule. See Chapter 10.12(b)(4) of this field manual. IBIS records should not be disclosed to individuals without proper legal authorization.

(1) General requirements .

Except as provided in paragraph (b)(2), an application or petition shall not be approved or revalidated until the name (to include aliases) of the petitioner, applicant, beneficiary, and the names of any spouse and children who will derive an immediate benefit through their relationship (without filing a separate application) have been checked against IBIS, in accordance with the procedures set forth in Appendix 10-6 of this field manual. If such a check reveals the existence of relating files, or other information, they shall be obtained and considered before making a determination upon the application or petition.

An IBIS query on a new application/petition must be run within 15 calendar days of initial receipt. In addition to the initial query, an IBIS query must be conducted at any of the following times, if evidence of the IBIS query indicates it is no longer current (i.e. more than 180 days old):

· At the time of decision;
In general, since dates have been retrogressed for so long, all IBIS checks will have expired for I-485 submitted last year unless USCIS have been proactively renewing them (as if!).

gc_soon

02-19-2013, 04:57 PM

Spec,
Any idea on Consular processing?
Once the date becomes current, are CP cases at disadvantage compared to AOS cases? (since interview dates availability at consulate becomes a factor to consider).
Also does NVC schedule interviews based on PD?

Spectator

02-19-2013, 05:28 PM

Spec,

Could you please elaborate the above statement with respect to non-porters who filed their I-485 ? Do we get our visa number via IVAMS once we are current? My guess is the spill-over allocation is paper based.

I think visa number allocation after pre-adjudication will go strictly by priority date. What is your take?Kanmani,

When a case is pre-adjudicated, a request is made via IVAMS for a visa allocation. If it cannot be granted immediately (because the PD is not Current), the information on Country, Category PD and A number is held in a pending file which we see as the Demand Data.

When the Cut Off Date moves, the IVAMS system automatically generates a list of cases that have become Current and sends that to USCIS. It is then up to USCIS to close out those cases and confirm the visa allocation.

Currently, a large number of interfiling cases will be in addition to these numbers, since their PD under EB2 has not yet been Current and the conversion to EB2 has not taken place.

If the Cut Off Date moves a lot, I am cynical enough to believe that the IO will choose the "low hanging fruit" rather than process strictly by PD. If the PD is Current, all cases are equally eligible to be approved and the IO performance is largely determined by how how many cases are closed out. Under those circumstances, they are going to choose the easy cases to boost their statistics.

Kanmani

02-19-2013, 05:52 PM

Thanks Spec. Looks like luck plays a prominent role, which is bad for non-lhfruits.

qesehmk

02-19-2013, 05:53 PM

technically yes ... but given that the EB3 case also might be pre-adjudicated, I would imagine it shouldn't be such a big deal. Basically they will approve the EB3 application - not the EB3. And the basis for visa allocation is going to be EB2. Right? So although technically they might say it adds 30-90 days delay - I think that is the worst case scenario - not average case. Average case it should be 30 days or less (just like any other currrent EB2 date with a preadjudicated 485).
Thanks and clear. What i guess is that:
Once current, interfiling process/approval/adjudicating process makes a delay of about 30 days to 90 days, which gives advantage to already adjudicated cases with same PD and these ported cases may get added to next years demand

SeekingGC2013

02-19-2013, 06:28 PM

Hey All

Can you please explain the rationale for the below analysis? How come when 1 & 3 are happening X is at advantage and when 2 &4 are happening B is at advantage?

Also if dates are moved progressively? what are the chances are Eb3-Eb2 porters could influence the dates not to be moved to expected cut-off dates as analyzed by GURUS os 1st page? Is it likely that due to the progression and build up off porter applications dates might end up in Dec 2006 or Dec 2007?

thanks for all the hardwork and feedback you provide - words are not enough to appreciate the effort you put in.

Excellent Point Vizcard. I think i understood it for the most part. Can you confirm my below understanding based on the below examples?

(1) Mr X, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(2) Mr Y, 'EB3-Eb2 porter' having a PD in 2006 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'
(3) Mr A, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'May visa bulletin'
(4) Mr B, 'EB2 person (no porting)' having PD of Oct-2008 and becoming current in 'August visa bulletin'

Assuming (1) and (3) happens then its advantage for Mr X, Similarly if (2) and (4) happens then its advantage for Mr B. Correct?

Let me know if someone can explain what exactly happens once the dates become current (for a porter vs a regular guy).

vizcard

02-19-2013, 07:33 PM

IBIS (Interagency Border Inspection System) is part of the background check.

Originally it was only valid for 35 days. Subsequently it was extended to 90 days and now appears to be 180 days.

From the AFM (section 10.3)

In general, since dates have been retrogressed for so long, all IBIS checks will have expired for I-485 submitted last year unless USCIS have been proactively renewing them (as if!).

Wouldnt this also apply to Medicals? IIRC they are valid for a year.

Kanmani

02-19-2013, 08:02 PM

Technically Medicals are valid for one year only, but USCIS extends the validity of the already submitted medicals every year by issuing an memorandum (internally).

Unless we receive a notice for submission of updated medical report, the one we submitted along with I-485 is valid . The following memo authorises the validation of Form I693 until September 30, 2013.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/I693_Extension_PM_Approved_Final122012.pdf

Spectator

02-19-2013, 08:17 PM

Wouldnt this also apply to Medicals? IIRC they are valid for a year.

Technically Medicals are valid for one year only, but USCIS extends the validity of the already submitted medicals every year by issuing an memorandum (internally).

Unless we receive a notice for submission of updated medical report, the one we submitted along with I-485 is valid . vizcard,

Here's a link to the latest Memo (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/I693_Extension_PM_Approved_Final122012.pdf) which covers all adjudications in FY2013.

It also says:

USCIS anticipates that it will issue a new policy in regards to the sufficiency of Form I-693 endorsements for FY 2014. USCIS is currently working with CDC on developing the new policy.

vizcard

02-19-2013, 09:24 PM

vizcard,

Here's a link to the latest Memo (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/I693_Extension_PM_Approved_Final122012.pdf) which covers all adjudications in FY2013.

It also says:

Thanks. This helps.

bvsamrat

02-20-2013, 02:03 PM

When does interfiling happen? Does a porter has to interfile once again if when his PD gets current
The trackitt reply states that interfiling is done at time of I-140 itself. If so, all are treated on par and I do not know why these cases are not added to demand(atleast the interfilers who filed I-140 months back)

Interfiling process as per Trackitt Forum

""I had enough discussion with lawyer for interfiling related matter. According to them, we request porting and interfiling at time of filing 140 (via letter/colored papers etc). Then 1st indication that CIS have seen our request is when they approve 140 with OLDPD. Then interfiling should happen automatically internally within CIS. But effect of interfiling does not get reflected right away, specially when PD is not current. But lawyer office told me that they are going to confirm this aggressively when PD become current.

I kind of agree with what i been told because this is what happened to my friend. His PD was 2003EB3. Filed 140EB2 in Aug2012, That got approved in Dec12. His OLDPD becomes current from October VB in 2012. So within 3 weeks of his 140EB2 approval, his GC got approved in Jan13 and got his card in last week of Jan13"".

bvsamrat,

I have been thinking about this too.

I am not sure one case has any advantage over another. Possibly, the porting I-485 has a slightly higher chance of an RFE.

a) Both cases will probably have to be recalled from storage.

b) In both cases, the IBIS check will probably have expired and need to be requested again.

c) Both have a pre-adjudicated I-485 (at least up to July 2007). The only difference is the interfiling (requesting a visa under EB2), which doesn't involve any extra adjudication of the I-485.

d) Requesting a new visa number in IVAMS is instantaneous if Current and takes no more time than using IVAMS to use a visa allocated at the time of pre-adjudication.

In our hearts, we all know USCIS will just pick the "low hanging fruit".

I think it will be luck of the draw and depend on which case lands on the IO desk first. If dates move forward too fast, we will see a repeat of last year, where late PD are approved and earlier PD miss out.

edisonguy

02-20-2013, 02:35 PM

With 19K spillover, how far the dates would move into 2009 as per the prediction in page#1.

zenmaster

02-20-2013, 02:49 PM

Spectator

02-20-2013, 02:59 PM

When does interfiling happen? Does a porter has to interfile once again if when his PD gets current
bvsamrat,

My understanding is that there are 2 separate processes for what people loosely refer to as "interfiling".

a) Consolidation of the A-file with all the information to show the person is eligible under EB2 when dates are Current. That can be done, even if the PD is not Current. Possibly an IBIS check is initiated at this point, if needed (I don't know).

b) Conversion of the underlying basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2 and a visa request under EB2. The AFM says this can only happen when the PD is Current for the new basis (EB2). So no request for a visa number under EB2 can be made until the PD becomes Current again. That makes perfect sense, since there is no situation where you could submit a new I-485 when the dates are not Current.

The last time most cases would have been Current was in May 2012, when the COD was 15AUG07. In theory, any cases that have become ready to "interfile" in the nearly 9 months since that time can not form part of the Demand Data, since no visa can be requested under EB2.

I would have expected the Demand Data for EB2-I 2003 - 2006 to have risen fairly considerably had porting cases been included. It hasn't. The oddity is that EB3 demand has dropped and I don't know how to reconcile that fact.

vizcard

02-20-2013, 03:09 PM

With 19K spillover, how far the dates would move into 2009 as per the prediction in page#1.

I feel 2009'ers should pin their hopes for next year rather than this year.
Even if DOS moves dates into 2009, they will do so to pick low hanging fruits - as Gurus have mentioned above, and it is pure speculation until what date in 2009 they will move, if at all.

Assuming CO doesn't repeat last year's reckless forward movement AND without CIR, I will be shocked if we go beyond Jan 1, 2009. Ofcourse with CIR, all bets are off.

PS: There is a separate thread for CIR, so DO NOT discuss any CIR bills or potential bills in this thread.

qesehmk

02-20-2013, 03:34 PM

YTeleven

02-20-2013, 03:55 PM

My understanding is that the current USCIS systems are SMART enough to identify the oldest PD of the person and attach it to the latest 140 filed. This was mentioned in one of USCIS memos also. They also mentioned that the adjudication process also works according to the oldest PD. If this is true then you no need to have interfiling request and possibly even the porting request, all you need is to file the new 140 based on new EB2 labour and sytem will take care of the adjudication process based on the oldest PD associated to your file.

When does interfiling happen? Does a porter has to interfile once again if when his PD gets current
The trackitt reply states that interfiling is done at time of I-140 itself. If so, all are treated on par and I do not know why these cases are not added to demand(atleast the interfilers who filed I-140 months back)

Interfiling process as per Trackitt Forum

""I had enough discussion with lawyer for interfiling related matter. According to them, we request porting and interfiling at time of filing 140 (via letter/colored papers etc). Then 1st indication that CIS have seen our request is when they approve 140 with OLDPD. Then interfiling should happen automatically internally within CIS. But effect of interfiling does not get reflected right away, specially when PD is not current. But lawyer office told me that they are going to confirm this aggressively when PD become current.

I kind of agree with what i been told because this is what happened to my friend. His PD was 2003EB3. Filed 140EB2 in Aug2012, That got approved in Dec12. His OLDPD becomes current from October VB in 2012. So within 3 weeks of his 140EB2 approval, his GC got approved in Jan13 and got his card in last week of Jan13"".

gtyagi

02-20-2013, 04:15 PM

Pedro Gonzales

02-20-2013, 05:16 PM

Hi Gurus,

This is my first post here. First of all, I would like to say that I have been following this forum for about a month now and it has been a great experience, reading different views and this process really makes sense to me now. Thanks for providing this knowledge to the community.

Question:

My old PD is EB2 April 2008. Labor filed Jan 2013 and pending. I am assuming labor approval (if no RFE) sometime in April 2013.
I was wondering when this year my date can become current? Should I be applying I-140 and I-485 concurrently? Should I be ready with all the documents? What documents can I be ready with to expedite the process?
I am planning on I-140 premium processing. Hoping that will be approved in 30 - 40 days. While I-140 is still pending, and dates become current, I can apply for I-485. Correct?

With an April 2008 PD, since you don't appear to have applied for your I485 in Jan 2012, I take it your original application was in EB3?

Your PD will likely become current anytime between June and September 2013. It's hard to say exactly when. You can file your I140 and I485 concurrently only if the dates are current. If they aren't and aren't likely to be (at any point you will have between 20 and 50 days of visibility) you would be better off filing the I140 via premium processing while keeping your I485 application ready.

The I140 application is really your employer's application, although it will require some information on your part. Ask your lawyer for what exactly they need that they don't already have (I had to provide my resume, details of all entries and exits from the US, employment confirmation from all my prior employers, etc, although I think a lot of it was overkill).

For the I485 application, check out this thread for information on what you will need: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/41-Prepare-to-file-I485?p=1273#post1273

If I were you, I'd also find the civil surgeon now and book an appointment for the 15th of the next month, and start to gather my vaccination records. If the dates don't move forward sufficiently for any particular VB, push the appointment out to the next month.

gtyagi

02-20-2013, 05:37 PM

Thanks Pedro. It is really helpful. My PD April 2008 was for EB2. The delay in PERM filing from my new employer brought me to this situation. Murthy is filing for it. So, if labor gets approved in April 2013, I may still have some time to do the I-140 in premium processing and wait for dates to get current in June - September. If I-140 is pending, can I still file for I-485 as soon as dates become current?
Any specific documents for my spouse for I-485?
I also had some unauthorized employment. At what time I will have to file 245K? I have entered US legally after that mishap.
Response is greatly appreciated.
Thanks

helooo

02-20-2013, 07:02 PM

vizcard

02-20-2013, 07:46 PM

So,the SOFAD will only apply in June 2013 or it can be in earlier also?

theoretically CO could start to use some in the next VB. Realistically though it will be in the July or Aug VB

qesehmk

02-20-2013, 07:58 PM

Traditionally it has been July-Aug-Sep i.e. last quarter of a USCIS fiscal. This year we expect it that way. Last year was exception when we saw it oct-nov-dec-Jan and then stopped feb onwards.
So,the SOFAD will only apply in June 2013 or it can be in earlier also?

everydayout

02-21-2013, 06:17 AM

Hello Folks,

I'm a new member of this forum... Thanks for providing very useful analysis on the GC predictions and processes backed by stats and facts. I'm glad that I got introduced to this forum through some other forums.
I have gone through predictions for EB2I in the first page and understand that the expectation is that it can move to anywhere between Jul 2008 to early 2009.
My case was originally filed in EB3I Oct 2007. (So I-485 is not yet filed). Recently my EB2 PERM and I-140 got approved. USCIS did not port the date. We sent one more request to port the date. So I'm expecting that I'll be able to file I-485 between Jul-Sep under EB2I using Oct 2007 PD when quarterly spillover takes into effect.
If the I-485 is still in process when the current quota year finishes by Sep 2013, What will be the PD on Oct 2013? Will it go back to some old date similar to what happened this year?

veni001

02-21-2013, 08:03 AM

idiotic

02-21-2013, 08:58 AM

That should be around Feb 2009 assuming 21K normal SOFAD + 19K FB spillover. Now - if we assume 75% of that becomes reality - that still means Sep 2008. So all in all 2013 is going to be a good year.

How do you guys think CO will build next round of inventory so as not to waste visa numbers for FY2014? since 21k+19k will wipe out most of the existing inventory.

qesehmk

02-21-2013, 09:55 AM

If history is any precedence - he will do it in haphazard manner like he did in 2007 and 2012 ie he will move dates forward and take in a boatload of applications and then take them back suddenly.

p.s. - Still there was difference between 2007 and 2012. In 2007 the dates just moved forward in a wild swing and came back immediately in a month or two. In 2012 he kept on moving dates for almost 5 months. But in either case the point is - the movement of dates will always be more than necessary to ensure he gets a large number of applications.

How do you guys think CO will build next round of inventory so as not to waste visa numbers for FY2014? since 21k+19k will wipe out most of the existing inventory.

longwait100

02-21-2013, 10:53 AM

If history is any precedence - he will do it in haphazard manner like he did in 2007 and 2012 ie he will move dates forward and take in a boatload of applications and then take them back suddenly.

p.s. - Still there was difference between 2007 and 2012. In 2007 the dates just moved forward in a wild swing and came back immediately in a month or two. In 2012 he kept on moving dates for almost 5 months. But in either case the point is - the movement of dates will always be more than necessary to ensure he gets a large number of applications.

Q, Isn't 2013 situation different though since CO should have a better visibility of the EB2I backlog based on the DD numbers unlike 2007 (when there used to be no published DD) or 2012 (when the EB2I 485 pending inventory was actually approaching negligible levels)?

Spectator

02-21-2013, 11:06 AM

How do you guys think CO will build next round of inventory so as not to waste visa numbers for FY2014? since 21k+19k will wipe out most of the existing inventory.I suspect that 40k is too optimistic.

I think there will be sufficient EB2-I cases left that CO won't have to think about topping up the Inventory until at least FY2015.

druvraj

02-21-2013, 11:13 AM

I have funny feeling that for June bulletin, CO will start the push and keep September bulletin quite for any eventualities. Just a hunch. So I am eagerly waiting for May 1-2nd week.

qesehmk

02-21-2013, 11:53 AM

DD was not published so - we didn't have visibility. DD is CO's data so he always had the visibility. The 2007 movement was because of some internal conflicts between agencies as far as I can tell. That way DoS pushed USCIS to act better on their pipeline. Whereas the 2012 movement was proactive pipeline buidling by DoS. However in both cases the movement went much beyond what was really necessary.

So my point is as a policy USCIS and DoS should always ensure 1 year of pipeline. Make that 8 months or 16 months depending on your appetite. But the principle is to have sufficient numbers so that when SOFAD is available, visas dont get wasted. And just move the dates for a month in October , 1 year ahead of the current date. It's such a simple philosophy and rule that will ensure fairness. But CO makes all these haphazard movements like going into 2009 and then swinging back to 2004. It's just plain stupid.

That's why I said that looking at the history I am sure that the movement will be jerky again whenever the dates move into 2009.

Although I am not as skeptical as Spec, I am also not very bullish on dates moving into 2009. But I am reasonably confident that if FB spillover is utilized then backlog through 2008 Sep should be cleared.

Does that answer your question? Sorry for this long winded answer.

Q, Isn't 2013 situation different though since CO should have a better visibility of the EB2I backlog based on the DD numbers unlike 2007 (when there used to be no published DD) or 2012 (when the EB2I 485 pending inventory was actually approaching negligible levels)?

itwasntme

02-21-2013, 12:05 PM

Hello all,

I just was introduced to this forum by a friend of mine. I am surprised that i missed the buzz on this forum all these years. My PD is May 2007 in EB2I. My 485 is pending for more than an year now. I almost lost the hope of getting GC this fiscal year and tried to keep the GC topic in the back burner until I heard about spill over. I just got off the phone with an L2 officer to know if my case is pre adjudicated to which she said it is preadjudicated last year. If I may ask, as my Fingerprints, background checks,medical reports etc..might have got expired, Do I have to get these again, once PD is current ? Hopefully, the predictions and calculations come true.

Spectator

02-21-2013, 12:08 PM

Although I am not as skeptical as Spec, I am also not very bullish on dates moving into 2009. But I am reasonably confident that if FB spillover is utilized then backlog through 2008 Sep should be cleared.That's why I don't really expect any movements to create a new Inventory until FY2015.

Even movement through September 2008 in FY2013 would leave 23k known numbers left in the EB2-I Inventory. Add a few k more for porting in FY2014 and it probably means the Inventory won't approach exhaustion until FY2015.

Only when the current Inventory is nearly empty can CO move Cut Off Dates beyond 01MAY10. Until then, he would always have more qualified cases than available visas if he did so.

longwait100

02-21-2013, 12:10 PM

Q, I understand your point and hope your prediction comes out to be true as I my PD of Aug 2007 didn't get picked up during last year's random EB2I approvals.

The point that I was trying to make in my earlier post was that, clearly CO has a better visibility of the EB2I pre-adjudicated 485 applications sitting with the USCIS and by Q4, he should also have a better understanding of the total spillover to EB2I. So if CO applies his arithmetic lessons correctly, he should be able to determine where the cut-off dates should line out by the end of fiscal 2013.

qesehmk

02-21-2013, 12:15 PM

Absolutely. At the end of 2013 the dates are not moving beyond where they last moved. The best case for dates to go beyond where they already have been is Jun-Sep 2014. As Spec said above - it could very well be 2015 season.

p.s. - Unless of course CIR happens. And that will change everything positively!

Q, I understand your point and hope your prediction comes out to be true as I my PD of Aug 2007 didn't get picked up during last year's random EB2I approvals.

The point that I was trying to make in my earlier post was that, clearly CO has a better visibility of the EB2I pre-adjudicated 485 applications sitting with the USCIS and by Q4, he should also have a better understanding of the total spillover to EB2I. So if CO applies his arithmetic lessons correctly, he should be able to determine where the cut-off dates should line out by the end of fiscal 2013.

qesehmk

02-21-2013, 12:16 PM

welcome itwasntme. Your name makes my imagination go wild. But that aside .. i can tell you my experience that once I did everything in 2007 .. uscis never bothered me and directly gave me my GC in 2011. That's it. Wish you good luck.

Hello all,

I just was introduced to this forum by a friend of mine. I am surprised that i missed the buzz on this forum all these years. My PD is May 2007 in EB2I. My 485 is pending for more than an year now. I almost lost the hope of getting GC this fiscal year and tried to keep the GC topic in the back burner until I heard about spill over. I just got off the phone with an L2 officer to know if my case is pre adjudicated to which she said it is preadjudicated last year. If I may ask, as my Fingerprints, background checks,medical reports etc..might have got expired, Do I have to get these again, once PD is current ? Hopefully, the predictions and calculations come true.

chewbaca

02-21-2013, 01:03 PM

Q/Spec/Other Gurus

My EB2I Priority date is Jan 2008 - My I140 was on appeal and the appeal was upheld last year (2012) around June/July - By that time it was too late to file I 485 for the dates had retrogressed already. Do you have an idea on when the current date will reach Jan 2008 for EB2I again and will there be enough numbers available so that I actually get greened in this calendar year?

itwasntme

02-21-2013, 01:09 PM

Thanks much! Atleast I dont have to go through the process again. Part of your response "Your name makes my imagination go wild" made my imagination go wild to think what might be going in your head. ..LOL.

dec2007

02-21-2013, 01:30 PM

Absolutely. At the end of 2013 the dates are not moving beyond where they last moved. The best case for dates to go beyond where they already have been is Jun-Sep 2014. As Spec said above - it could very well be 2015 season.

p.s. - Unless of course CIR happens. And that will change everything positively!

Q, I received RFE on 485. Nothing major, they have asked copies of passport and my wife's traveled dates. RFE is still pending since May 2012. Let us say in July Bulletin the dates move to Jan 2008. How long it will normally take for RFE to be cleared and assign GC to me. My PD is Dec 31, 2007. I'm just concerned dates might retrogress before my RFE is cleared and GC. Need to make very important decisions at the end of this year..

Thank you Q.

idiotic

02-21-2013, 01:31 PM

I suspect that 40k is too optimistic.

I think there will be sufficient EB2-I cases left that CO won't have to think about topping up the Inventory until at least FY2015.

Thanks a lot Spec for taking the time to respond.

qesehmk

02-21-2013, 01:51 PM

Dec2007, i think normally this RFE should be cleared within a few weeks since you responded. July is too far out in future. So I don't see any reason to worry. you should get yours soon! All the best!
Q, I received RFE on 485. Nothing major, they have asked copies of passport and my wife's traveled dates. RFE is still pending since May 2012. Let us say in July Bulletin the dates move to Jan 2008. How long it will normally take for RFE to be cleared and assign GC to me. My PD is Dec 31, 2007. I'm just concerned dates might retrogress before my RFE is cleared and GC. Need to make very important decisions at the end of this year..

Thank you Q.

qesehmk

02-21-2013, 01:52 PM

Chewbaca / all others - pl read headers and if that doesn't answer your question then only post a question.
Q/Spec/Other Gurus

My EB2I Priority date is Jan 2008 - My I140 was on appeal and the appeal was upheld last year (2012) around June/July - By that time it was too late to file I 485 for the dates had retrogressed already. Do you have an idea on when the current date will reach Jan 2008 for EB2I again and will there be enough numbers available so that I actually get greened in this calendar year?

gtyagi

02-21-2013, 02:36 PM

With an April 2008 PD, since you don't appear to have applied for your I485 in Jan 2012, I take it your original application was in EB3?

Your PD will likely become current anytime between June and September 2013. It's hard to say exactly when. You can file your I140 and I485 concurrently only if the dates are current. If they aren't and aren't likely to be (at any point you will have between 20 and 50 days of visibility) you would be better off filing the I140 via premium processing while keeping your I485 application ready.

The I140 application is really your employer's application, although it will require some information on your part. Ask your lawyer for what exactly they need that they don't already have (I had to provide my resume, details of all entries and exits from the US, employment confirmation from all my prior employers, etc, although I think a lot of it was overkill).

For the I485 application, check out this thread for information on what you will need: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/41-Prepare-to-file-I485?p=1273#post1273

If I were you, I'd also find the civil surgeon now and book an appointment for the 15th of the next month, and start to gather my vaccination records. If the dates don't move forward sufficiently for any particular VB, push the appointment out to the next month.

Thanks Pedro. It is really helpful. My PD April 2008 was for EB2. The delay in PERM filing from my new employer brought me to this situation. Murthy is filing for it. So, if labor gets approved in April 2013, I may still have some time to do the I-140 in premium processing and wait for dates to get current in June - September. If I-140 is pending, can I still file for I-485 as soon as dates become current?
Any specific documents for my spouse for I-485?
I also had some unauthorized employment. At what time I will have to file 245K? I have entered US legally after that mishap.
Response is greatly appreciated.
Thanks

chewbaca

02-21-2013, 02:37 PM

Q,
Sorry if I asked a redundant question. I did not know everything was updated in the header. Based on what I read in the header - and please forgive my ignorance if I am missing the point - posted by Spec all EB2 by July 2008 will be cleared - does that mean Greened/ I am not even 485 filed / that's why the question.

ksur23

02-21-2013, 02:42 PM

gcpursuit

02-21-2013, 02:53 PM

qesehmk

02-21-2013, 03:00 PM

chewbaca - if don't have a 485 filed then that will take some time to process - so your worst case probably would be sometime next year - hopefully prior to March 2014. But if it is already filed by Jun 2013 then you should get GC by Sep 2013.

Q,
Sorry if I asked a redundant question. I did not know everything was updated in the header. Based on what I read in the header - and please forgive my ignorance if I am missing the point - posted by Spec all EB2 by July 2008 will be cleared - does that mean Greened/ I am not even 485 filed / that's why the question.

There is a lot of discussion around where the dates would be at end of FY 2013. How long would it stay put after cut-off reaches mid-2008 before retrogression takes place?

My PD is Jan 2009, let's for a minute assume CO pushes it to Feb 2009 by September 2013 (very miniscule likelihood I know), the result would be a big increase in demand and CO will want to retrogress - what is the window before it goes back to 2004 or 05 as it inevitably will.

Also once retrogressed how long before it's back to 08,09 cut-off in 2014?

I know my questions here might come across as too eager but I'd appreciate any intelligent theories...thanks!
This is always tricky Ksur. You would wish that the date movement is always sustainable. But it is not. My "GUESS" is if the dates land post Sep 2008 - there will be likely retrogression.

I have a question regarding Consular Processing. My PD is June 2009 and I did not file I-485 since I was changing jobs. I know it wouldn't get current anytime soon but just wanted to plan. If CO moves priority dates from June to Sep next year and retrogresses in October, is Consualr Processing risky when compared to I-485.

What is the advantage of going the I-485 route since I am yet to file it and its not pre-adjudicated?
I have never heard CP being risky at all. If at all I have heard it can be faster. You may want to ask this question to Ron Gotcher who has always advocated CP over 485. I really can't endorse it one way or other. Sorry..

Spectator

02-21-2013, 03:00 PM

There is a lot of discussion around where the dates would be at end of FY 2013. How long would it stay put after cut-off reaches mid-2008 before retrogression takes place?

My PD is Jan 2009, let's for a minute assume CO pushes it to Feb 2009 by September 2013 (very miniscule likelihood I know), the result would be a big increase in demand and CO will want to retrogress - what is the window before it goes back to 2004 or 05 as it inevitably will.

Also once retrogressed how long before it's back to 08,09 cut-off in 2014?

I know my questions here might come across as too eager but I'd appreciate any intelligent theories...thanks!ksur23,

On the basis that CO will approach FY2014 similarly to FY2013 (and I think that is a fair assumption), I would expect fairly severe retrogression in the October 2012 VB because, at that time, only the initial 7% allocation will be available (252 visas / month).

I wouldn't expect EB2-I Cut Off Dates to get back to 2008 until around July 2014, since porting cases with an earlier PD can probably consume the initial allocation. How far the Cut Off Date can go in FY2014 is entirely dependent on the amount of spillover available.

Spectator

02-21-2013, 03:11 PM

I have a question regarding Consular Processing. My PD is June 2009 and I did not file I-485 since I was changing jobs. I know it wouldn't get current anytime soon but just wanted to plan. If CO moves priority dates from June to Sep next year and retrogresses in October, is Consualr Processing risky when compared to I-485.

What is the advantage of going the I-485 route since I am yet to file it and its not pre-adjudicated?gcpursuit,

The obvious advantage of I-485 is that

a) EAD and AP are available.

b) The advantages of the AC21 provisions are available e.g. I-140 portability after I-485 has been pending 180 days. For CP, the position and employer mentioned in the I-140 must remain available.

c) No travel to obtain the medical and undergo the Consular Interview.

The advantage of CP is that NVC usually schedule the Consular Interview quicker than USCIS process the I-485, although USCIS have been processing rather faster lately.

I'm not sure Ron advocates CP for Indian applicants as strongly now - there have been some recent horror stories of denials at Indian Consulates. You'd need to trawl ImmInfo for the relevant threads.

You would also need to allow the time it takes USCIS to transfer the I-140 to NVC if it wasn't specified initially. This involves submitting an I-824 and paying $405 for the trouble. The process can take a long time - it can't be a last minute decision.

ksur23

02-21-2013, 03:45 PM

ksur23,

On the basis that CO will approach FY2014 similarly to FY2013 (and I think that is a fair assumption), I would expect fairly severe retrogression in the October 2012 VB because, at that time, only the initial 7% allocation will be available (252 visas / month).

I wouldn't expect EB2-I Cut Off Dates to get back to 2008 until around July 2014, since porting cases with an earlier PD can probably consume the initial allocation. How far the Cut Off Date can go in FY2014 is entirely dependent on the amount of spillover available.

Thanks Spec. This would mean USCIS would have to use up all the spillovers in a small window of 2 or 3 months between July and September 2013. As soon as October is retrogressed USCIS will stop working on later-than-retrogression-cut-off-date. So we are basically looking at

1) USCIS working overtime to potentially provide 16k+FB spillover number of GCs in a 2-3 month window

or

2) USCIS not using entire spillover.

So in essence the 2008 filers are not out of jail yet and 2009 filers are possibly staring at 2014 Q4?

Thanks in advance for any clarification provided!

sdesh005

02-21-2013, 03:57 PM

That should be around Feb 2009 assuming 21K normal SOFAD + 19K FB spillover. Now - if we assume 75% of that becomes reality - that still means Sep 2008. So all in all 2013 is going to be a good year.
So if we assume that some FB visas will flow into EB even next year (FY-2014) even if not to the same extent of 19K, then can we expect that mid-2009 PD can clear up by the same time next year, around September 2014 or so? I'm talking even in absence of CIR that is...

Spectator

02-21-2013, 03:57 PM

ksur23,

USCIS were able to process 20k spillover in 3 months in FY2010 and 27k spillover in 5 months in FY2011. In FY2012 USCIS appeared to process even higher monthly volumes prior to retrogression.

I'm not sure that's such a great concern.

idiotic

02-21-2013, 04:12 PM

qesehmk

02-21-2013, 04:12 PM

with those assumptions - absolutely yes.
So if we assume that some FB visas will flow into EB even next year (FY-2014) even if not to the same extent of 19K, then can we expect that mid-2009 PD can clear up by the same time next year, around September 2014 or so? I'm talking even in absence of CIR that is...

dec2007

02-21-2013, 04:19 PM

qesehmk

02-21-2013, 04:20 PM

So first they will divide the increase in quota ie. from 140K->> 158K across all categories/countries just like they did with the 140K. So china will get its share of teh increase regardless whether chinese dates are ahead of EB2I.

Then after a category/country exhausts its visas the spillover will start as follows:

EB4/5 -> EB1 -> EB2 -> EB3.

Lets call what extra comes to EB2 as X. So there are 3 main candidates to consume X EB2I/C/ROW. I am just assuming MP doesn't require any of X.
If ROW is current then more than likely it doesn't require any of X. So all of X goes EB2IC strictly in PD order. If EB2ROW were not current - some people think (like I do) that X should still be allocated based strictly on PD. However others (like Spec - correct me Spec if wrong) think that X will be further divided within EB2 as per the ratios e.g. 7% for India 7% for china and so on and as such ROW should receive 72%.

But to answer your question - if countries are backlogged within a category then X is given out strictly to oldest PD first.

Gurus,

One small clarification. Please explain me the thoughts about how Spillover visas will be divided between India and China as both are retrogressed.

The logic I am able to get from the law is

EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 backlogged countries => EB3 ROW => EB3 backlogged countries

However, I find that distribution among backlogged countries is not clear. Please throw some light on this.

Kanmani

02-21-2013, 04:20 PM

On the basis that CO will approach FY2014 similarly to FY2013 (and I think that is a fair assumption), I would expect fairly severe retrogression in the October 2012 VB because, at that time, only the initial 7% allocation will be available (252 visas / month).

october 2013 vb?

Spectator

02-21-2013, 04:22 PM

Gurus,

One small clarification. Please explain me the thoughts about how Spillover visas will be divided between India and China as both are retrogressed.

The logic I am able to get from the law is

EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 backlogged countries => EB3 ROW => EB3 backlogged countries

However, I find that distribution among backlogged countries is not clear. Please throw some light on this.idiotic,

Once the spillover visas hits EB2 Countries that have reached the 7% limit, the allocation is purely by earliest PD.

Since EB2-C can hit August/September 2008 purely on their initial allocation, they won't get any spillover visas unless Cut Off Dates progress further than that.

Roughly speaking, that would happen if SOFAD is > 25k.

When they start to receive spillover, EB2-C would receive roughly 1 visa for every 5 that EB2-I receives because EB2-I has so many more applicants.

vizcard

02-21-2013, 04:29 PM

qesehmk

02-21-2013, 04:37 PM

I think this is one of those "No News is a Good News" situation. It was fairly benign RFE to begin with. But you may just want to call up USCIS directly or through lawyer and check if you have satisfied their request. Don't worry too much Dec2007. Can understand your anxiety though. Best wishes.
Thanks Q, we responded on May 2012. Is it because dates have retrogressed, they are not processing my RFE response?

longwait100

02-21-2013, 05:12 PM

I'm probably getting over anxious here, but any prediction about when the EB2I cut-off dates might reach Aug 2007 in fiscal 2013?

idiotic

02-21-2013, 05:53 PM

idiotic

02-21-2013, 05:54 PM

Thanks a lot Qesehmk for your time and explanation.

longwait100

02-21-2013, 06:12 PM

S & Q, any prediction about when Aug 2007 may become current in fiscal 2013?

bvsamrat

02-21-2013, 06:20 PM

I may be wrong. But my instinct on 2 cents - Next bulletin might have surprise update on PD upto July 2008 as I guess some cases up to 2008 are getting revived probably for IBIS check.

S & Q, any prediction about when Aug 2007 may become current in fiscal 2013?

Spectator

02-21-2013, 06:33 PM

Thanks Spec for the clarification. I understand your explanation and why you explained China will just receive their quota and nothing from the spillover in your front page calculation.

I viewed it slightly from a different angle(too simplistic). Let there be the usual spillover from all categories. Let's call it X. It has to come to EB2 I as it is the most retrogressed. Now, these fb spillover visas(19k) must be in addition to X. EB2 I will receive X+19k. Right?

Your estimation is that X will be less than or equal to 6, which I think is too low.idiotic,

X + 12.9

12.9 = 18.0 - 5.1 (where 18.0 is the number of confirmed extra visas and 5.1 is the number of those allocated to EB3)

In a normal year 6 would be higher, but the EB2-WW visas that were borrowed last year need to be paid back this year. I agree it could be higher, but I see no evidence for that (yet). In any case, I prefer to err on the side of caution.

Last year EB2-I received 19.7k visas. Of that, about 3k was due to extra FB visas and maybe as many as 8k was due to numbers from EB2-WW. In addition, about 1.3k essentially came from EB3.

The underlying number could have been as low as 7.5k, which only represents spillover of less than 5k.

idiotic

02-21-2013, 06:41 PM

Thanks as always. I just updated my old post with the corrected calculation which seems to be inline with yours. Thanks again!!

idiotic

02-21-2013, 07:33 PM

idiotic,

X + 12.9

12.9 = 18.0 - 5.1 (where 18.0 is the number of confirmed extra visas and 5.1 is the number of those allocated to EB3)

In a normal year 6 would be higher, but the EB2-WW visas that were borrowed last year need to be paid back this year. I agree it could be higher, but I see no evidence for that (yet). In any case, I prefer to err on the side of caution.

Last year EB2-I received 19.7k visas. Of that, about 3k was due to extra FB visas and maybe as many as 8k was due to numbers from EB2-WW. In addition, about 1.3k essentially came from EB3.

The underlying number could have been as low as 7.5k, which only represents spillover of less than 5k.

Based on the past data, what is the minimum and maximum value of X? Also, the trend of the value of X will also be of help. Please let me know if you can help me figure out this.

sdesh005

02-21-2013, 08:26 PM

with those assumptions - absolutely yes.
Q - Is it a fair assumption though? Is there enough spillover normally, and enough FB visas moving to EB every year to expect July 2009 PD to be current by end of FY 14 in the absence of CIR?

qesehmk

02-21-2013, 08:41 PM

The normal spillover is 10-20K excluding FB spillover. FB spillover is not a normal thing given that FB itself has significant backlog. What makes them underutilize FB quota is puzzling. However still good for EB. So I think the assumption to have another FB spillover next year as well is quite optimistic.

Q - Is it a fair assumption though? Is there enough spillover normally, and enough FB visas moving to EB every year to expect July 2009 PD to be current by end of FY 14 in the absence of CIR?

vizcard

02-21-2013, 09:50 PM

Based on the past data, what is the minimum and maximum value of X? Also, the trend of the value of X will also be of help. Please let me know if you can help me figure out this.

This might help you.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards

longwait100

02-22-2013, 02:28 PM

hope your instinct turns out to be true....btw, can you share the source of this information about IBIS check?

I may be wrong. But my instinct on 2 cents - Next bulletin might have surprise update on PD upto July 2008 as I guess some cases up to 2008 are getting revived probably for IBIS check.

longgcque

02-22-2013, 03:04 PM

How do we know they are re-doing IBIS check? Is it an assumption or from a source ?

[/

hope your instinct turns out to be true....btw, can you share the source of this information about IBIS check?

gkjppp

02-22-2013, 03:13 PM

longgcque, i see 485 RFE for EVL, i guess you did not invoke AC21 your attorney might have missed to include while filing.

bvsamrat

02-22-2013, 03:19 PM

Excellent complilation

The 2013 SOFAD may be between these number: 22,000 Min, 32,000 Max and 26, 000 Avg.

Regards

This might help you.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards

GCKnowHow

02-22-2013, 03:20 PM

I may be wrong. But my instinct on 2 cents - Next bulletin might have surprise update on PD upto July 2008 as I guess some cases up to 2008 are getting revived probably for IBIS check.

I wish its true. Is your comment based on some observation/tip?

longgcque

02-22-2013, 03:25 PM

My company lawyer does this kind of 485 filing for everyone .. they do not have EVL as part of there checklist(though 485 instruction checklist mentions it is a must) .. these fools costed me atleast 18 months more to stay in my current job(my rfe came on 3/21/2012 .. else it would have been an approval.. internal retro happened from 3/23/2012). .. Luck was not on my side i guess

I have not yet invoked AC21

longgcque, i see 485 RFE for EVL, i guess you did not invoke AC21 your attorney might have missed to include while filing.

idiotic

02-22-2013, 03:35 PM

openaccount

02-22-2013, 03:38 PM

vizcard

02-22-2013, 03:47 PM

Thanks vizcard for posting the link to Spec's data. I also used Spec's data about the actual number of visas allocated due to fb spillover and plotted them against the actual number of EB2 visas received by India.

FY 2008 --- 22704 --- 14806
FY 2009 --- 0 --- 10106
FY 2010 --- 10657 --- 19961
FY 2011 --- 0 --- 23997
FY 2012 --- 4951 --- 19726

Looking at 2009 and 2011 data I intend to beleive that X may range between 10k to 23k. Adding that to X+12.9

We are looking at minimum of 22.9 t0 36k.

Even if it is 22.9k, I am incliined to beleive that CO will tend to build inventory again so as not to waste visa numbers in FY2014(even if it is a small movement).

Please let me know if my assumption is fair.

The FB numbers are included in the actual SOFAD. The reason is the FB numbers are not a separate bucket. They get added to the normal allocation of EB and then it follows the same SO rules. So you would be double counting in that situation.

I think we will be around the 20K mark for this year (including the 13K from FB). I don't really see a situation where there won't be sufficient demand for FY14. I can see a big forward movement in the early part of FY15 though.

Niksammy

02-22-2013, 04:33 PM

watch out for latest updates from CO. AILA updated in recent postings section.

2/22/2013 Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand (Updated 2/22/13))  Notes from conversations between Mike Nowlan & Roberta Freedman, AILA national committee members, and Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Topics discussed include the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2013. AILA Doc. No. 12012349.

The article you might be talking about has already been posted on another site www.lawbench.com on 13th Feb 2013 (Click on immigration-news link to see the article)

I believe that this meeting took place before CO was aware of 18K wind fall from FB.

Spectator

02-22-2013, 04:43 PM

The article you might be talking about has already been posted on another site www.lawbench.com on 13th Feb 2013 (Click on immigration-news link to see the article)

I believe that this meeting took place before CO was aware of 18K wind fall from FB.Niksammy,

Thanks for drawing our attention to that article (http://www.lawbench.com/immigration-news/department-of-state-s-visa-office-head-comments-on-green-card-backlog-issues). I wonder what the Feb 22, 2013 update is?

It confirms that EB1-C and EB1-I have already exceeded their 7% limit for the year, but fall across within EB1 can accommodate that.

It also mentions that in December 2012, 125 of the EB2-I approvals had a PD of 2003 or earlier and that USCIS are not working to provide better visibility of the numbers.

It also appears that cases are tagged as Principal or Dependent already, since CO was able to say 45% of cases are for Principal applicants. That's good to hear, since it will make it very easy if Dependents are excluded from Numerical Limits in future.

openaccount

02-22-2013, 04:52 PM

The article you might be talking about has already been posted on another site www.lawbench.com on 13th Feb 2013 (Click on immigration-news link to see the article)

I believe that this meeting took place before CO was aware of 18K wind fall from FB.

thanks for the link, latest from AILA could be a new update from CO this week, we will know in next few days

Full article link:http://www.lawbench.com/immigration-news/department-of-state-s-visa-office-head-comments-on-green-card-backlog-issues

from the article: "One little known fact offered by Mr. Oppenheim is that unused Family-based (FB) cases can be used for Employment-based (EB cases), but this does not usually occur because of heavy FB usage."

was CO aware of FB extra numbers when he released March VB looks like he is not from above statement

Niksammy

02-22-2013, 05:01 PM

Why would CO talk to same set of lawyers twice in a span of 10 days? I think that EITHER someone on AILA might have forgotten to post that information on their web site earlier OR CO really likes both these gentlemen/lawyers in question and wants to convey good news to Eb2I community through them.

The probability of later happening before next few months is equal to probability of Washington Redskins winning a super bowl next year - which is almost zero :). Though I would love to be wrong this time

vizcard

02-22-2013, 05:52 PM

thanks for the link, latest from AILA could be a new update from CO this week, we will know in next few days

Full article link:http://www.lawbench.com/immigration-news/department-of-state-s-visa-office-head-comments-on-green-card-backlog-issues

from the article: "One little known fact offered by Mr. Oppenheim is that unused Family-based (FB) cases can be used for Employment-based (EB cases), but this does not usually occur because of heavy FB usage."

was CO aware of FB extra numbers when he released March VB looks like he is not from above statement

He certainly was not aware of it. Hence the "revised" demand data document that came out a few days after the original document (and visa bulletin). Whether he would have done anything with that knowledge is another matter.

Spectator

02-22-2013, 05:56 PM

The FB numbers are included in the actual SOFAD. The reason is the FB numbers are not a separate bucket. They get added to the normal allocation of EB and then it follows the same SO rules. So you would be double counting in that situation.

I think we will be around the 20K mark for this year (including the 13K from FB). I don't really see a situation where there won't be sufficient demand for FY14. I can see a big forward movement in the early part of FY15 though.vizcard,

Agree with everything you said, including the approximate number.

In the FY2012 figures, idiotic would also have to take into account that the 19.7k figure is 6-8k higher than it would normally have been, due to use of visas that normally would have been used by EB2-WW.

Kanmani

02-22-2013, 06:10 PM

Spec,

Is it not too low, just 7000 excluding FB ?

Co is expecting a fall down from Eb1 is possible in a scenario that FB numbers were NOT in their count (!)

Spectator

02-22-2013, 06:14 PM

Spec,

Is it not too low, just 7000 excluding FB ?

Co is expecting a fall down from Eb1 is possible in a scenario that FB numbers were NOT in their count (!)Kanmani,

It would have been much higher, but FY2013 is payback time for those extra EB2-WW visas used in FY2012.

I am allowing spillover from EB1.

Granted 7k might be at the low end of the range.

On the other hand, EB1-IC seem to have used 6k in about 4 months according to CO. At that rate, EB1-IC alone would use about 18k in a full year. That probably isn't a fair extrapolation, but it does give food for thought.

Kanmani

02-22-2013, 06:24 PM

Thanks Spec. Thats disappointing.

edisonguy

02-22-2013, 06:38 PM

Thanks Spec. Thats disappointing.

Now does it mean no spillover from EB1. ? So now does it confirms no spillover of 18K as calculated by Spec earlier.

edisonguy

02-22-2013, 06:40 PM

does it mean no spill over from EB1 ? What happens to your earlier prediction of 18K spillover at the last quarter.

Kanmani

02-22-2013, 08:00 PM

Now does it mean no spillover from EB1. ? So now does it confirms no spillover of 18K as calculated by Spec earlier.

There will be some fall down visas from Eb1 but by law, it should go to Eb2 WW if there is high demand . Eb2I was over allocated with some 8k visas last year which was borrowed from Eb2WW, hence a high demand in EB2ww is expected this FY.

qesehmk

02-22-2013, 08:46 PM

Kanmani
I am not sure about that. I would think that a fall down or fall across is supposed to be applied to the entire category strictly by oldest PD. Extra demand in eb2row can't eat up any fd. It will limit any fa though.

There will be some fall down visas from Eb1 but by law, it should go to Eb2 WW if there is high demand . Eb2I was over allocated with some 8k visas last year which was borrowed from Eb2WW, hence a high demand in EB2ww is expected this FY.

Kanmani

02-22-2013, 08:56 PM

Kanmani
I am not sure about that. I would think that a fall down or fall across is supposed to be applied to the entire category strictly by oldest PD. Extra demand in eb2row can't eat up any fd. It will limit any fa though.

Q,

We have beaten this topic to death in our 2011 thread in the context of Eb3 if by chance gets some spillover, then those extra visas will be used by the WW under the 7% per country limitation subsection. I believe this hold true for EB2 too.

Niksammy

02-22-2013, 08:57 PM

Q/Spec,

What do you think will be the approximate spill over number for EB2 I?

Spectator

02-22-2013, 09:10 PM

Kanmani
I am not sure about that. I would think that a fall down or fall across is supposed to be applied to the entire category strictly by oldest PD. Extra demand in eb2row can't eat up any fd. It will limit any fa though.Q,

I thought we had beaten this to death before.

Spillover only becomes available to Countries that have already reached their Numerical Limit IF there are no "otherwise qualified applicants". Since Countries in WW will not have reached their Numerical Limit, they ARE "otherwise qualified applicants".

Last time we agreed (eventually) that if numbers FD from EB1 to EB2 they essentially raised the numbers available to EB2 and consequently the number that 7% represented within EB2.

Assuming every 7% limited Country needed visas and EB2-ROW still needed visas, for every 100 available as FD 7 would go to each Country at the 7% limit and 72 would go to EB2-ROW. Once EB2-ROW did not require further visas, those 72 would go to the earliest PD, regardless of whether the 7% limit had been reached.

The old discussion is here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1197-Spillovers-Fall-Across-and-Fall-Down-How-it-Works).

One thing that everybody agreed on was that all FD would not go to the earliest PD if any Country that had not reached the 7% limit still had demand.

qesehmk

02-23-2013, 12:42 AM

Kanmani / Spec - Sorry. I was still stuck in my old interpretation and forgot this discussion. I guess my old interpretation doesn't matter for EB2 since EB2ROW always is current - especially with FD but my old interpretation diverges significantly from reality for EB3ROW that has large backlog. If ever EB3 received any SOFAD, unfortunately EB3IC are not going to get any of it until EB3ROW became current. A bitter truth.

Q,

We have beaten this topic to death in our 2011 thread in the context of Eb3 if by chance gets some spillover, then those extra visas will be used by the WW under the 7% per country limitation subsection. I believe this hold true for EB2 too.

Q,

I thought we had beaten this to death before.

Spillover only becomes available to Countries that have already reached their Numerical Limit IF there are no "otherwise qualified applicants". Since Countries in WW will not have reached their Numerical Limit, they ARE "otherwise qualified applicants".

Last time we agreed (eventually) that if numbers FD from EB1 to EB2 they essentially raised the numbers available to EB2 and consequently the number that 7% represented within EB2.

Assuming every 7% limited Country needed visas and EB2-ROW still needed visas, for every 100 available as FD 7 would go to each Country at the 7% limit and 72 would go to EB2-ROW. Once EB2-ROW did not require further visas, those 72 would go to the earliest PD, regardless of whether the 7% limit had been reached.

The old discussion is here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1197-Spillovers-Fall-Across-and-Fall-Down-How-it-Works).

One thing that everybody agreed on was that all FD would not go to the earliest PD if any Country that had not reached the 7% limit still had demand.

SmileBaba

02-23-2013, 03:44 AM

Spec/Q and other Gurus Friends..now since you guys are predicting higher Eb1 and Eb2 WW usage this year..what do you guys think Eb2I will end up by the end of this fiscal year (Sept. 2013)?

veni001

02-23-2013, 06:43 AM

Spec/Q and other Gurus Friends..now since you guys are predicting higher Eb1 and Eb2 WW usage this year..what do you guys think Eb2I will end up by the end of this fiscal year (Sept. 2013)?

SmileBaba,
Please check first page (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2013) of this thread for updated overall predictions for FY2013

longwait100

02-23-2013, 09:43 AM

Q, S and other Gurus on this forum, does the prediction for EB2I spillovers on the first page of this thread change in lieu of the this latest update from AILA?.....if so, what should be the revised number of the spillover to EB2I?

Thanks!

SmileBaba,
Please check first page (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2013) of this thread for updated overall predictions for FY2013

edisonguy

02-23-2013, 12:23 PM

I could not see any update in first page especially after yesterdays from AILA. Can there be still 18K spillover ? Q, Gurus please answer.

Q, S and other Gurus on this forum, does the prediction for EB2I spillovers on the first page of this thread change in lieu of the this latest update from AILA?.....if so, what should be the revised number of the spillover to EB2I?

Thanks!

vizcard

02-23-2013, 01:16 PM

I could not see any update in first page especially after yesterdays from AILA. Can there be still 18K spillover ? Q, Gurus please answer.

Is there a link to the conversation details from yesterday? I haven't seen anything.

abcx13

02-23-2013, 02:18 PM

If ever EB3 received any SOFAD, unfortunately EB2IC are not going to get any of it until EB3ROW became current. A bitter truth.Huh? How would this happen? How would EB3 receive SOFAD if EB2IC and EB2ROW were not current? I don't understand...

Kanmani

02-23-2013, 02:40 PM

Huh? How would this happen? How would EB3 receive SOFAD if EB2IC and EB2ROW were not current? I don't understand...

Its a typo. Please read "EB3IC are not going to get "

The essence is,

Spillover to EB3 ---->EB3ROW----->EB3ROW NIL------> EB3IC
Spillover to EB2 ---->EB2ROW----->EB2ROW NIL------> EB2IC

Currently EB3 has no potential spillover possibility, so if any amendment is passed, and the spillover rule is changed, the distribution would be like as mentioned above.

edisonguy

02-23-2013, 03:12 PM

Kanmani

02-23-2013, 03:46 PM

Spectator

02-23-2013, 04:37 PM

There are 23,975 EB2-I cases (as per DD) pending before Jan-1-2009 plus lots of porting cases.

If 18K visas are available from spill over, prediction on dates might move to early 2009 is 100% not possible.

I feel dates will not move beyond July 2008.

I am not a expert on this, Please correct me If I am wrong ?

Note: We should have DD by month/year. (:--edisonguy,

Unless many earlier PD cases are "left behind", I don't see Cut Off Dates progressing into 2009.

Unless the update to the article is momentous, I didn't see anything in it to alter my thinking.

I've been struggling to properly convey the numbers. I'll have one more go and leave it at that. Please don't get hung up on the exact numbers - it is an example within a range (possibly quite a wide one).

a) 18,000 extra visas for EB have been announced.

b) Of those, 5,148 will be made available to EB3 and cannot be used towards spillover. That leaves 12,852 extra visas that could Fall Down or Fall Across to EB2-I. I say EB2-I because I don't believe EB2-C will benefit from any of the extra visas.

c) EB2-WW used 25,009 visas last year. Had they not been retrogressed, they might have reached 32,000. That means there are 6,991 visas to flow through into FY2013 above the normal EB2-WW run rate.

d) The allocation for EB2-WW in FY2013 is 38,862. That is 6,862 higher than the 32,000 normal run rate they might use. The figure is so close to the extra number flowing from FY20112 to 2013, we can say that EB2-WW would use their entire new allocation and not provide Fall Across to EB2-I.

e) The EB2-WW share of the 12,862 visas above is 4,427. That leaves a balance of 8,425 extra visas available to EB2-I.

f) Currently, I am using a figure of 35k usage in EB1, 8k in EB4 and 10k in EB5. That provides an extra 5,000, 2,000 and zero visas to EB2-I had there been no extra FB visas.

g) The total spillover to EB2-I becomes 8,425 + 5,000 + 2,000 = 15,425 spillover visas.

h) Adding the normal allocation of 2,803 gives total visa available to EB2-I of 15,425 + 2,803 = 17,868. EB2-C receives 3,163 visas for SOFAD of 21,031.

As a table, this becomes

There are ------------- 18,000 - extra visas
Less -------------------(5,148)- to EB3

To EB2 ---------------- 12,852

Used by EB2-WW ---------(4,427)

Available for EB2-IC --- 8,425 - as spillover/increased allocation from extra FB visas

Normal SO from EB1 ----- 5,000 - Based on 35k usage of normal allocation
Normal SO from EB4 ----- 2,000 - Based on 8k usage of normal allocation
Normal SO from EB5 --------- 0 - Based on 10k usage of normal allocation

Total to EB2-IC ------- 15,425

Add Normal allocation -- 5,606

SOFAD EB2-IC ---------- 21,031

Total to EB2-C --------- 3,163
Total to EB2-I -------- 17,868

SOFAD ----------------- 21,031

or, if EB2-C receives 7% of any Fall Down from EB1 (as the INA appears to allow):

Total to EB2-C --------- 4,192
Total to EB2-I -------- 16,838

SOFAD ----------------- 21,031

I will reiterate again this is a simplified example of my current thinking. It evolves as more information becomes available. In fact, I've thrown it together so quickly, I have almost certainly left something out.

Feel free to plug in your own assumptions.

vizcard

02-23-2013, 04:47 PM

Spectator

02-23-2013, 04:58 PM

My immediate reaction is
1) porting will consume 3k of that 21k and
2) those are conservative spillover numbers.

I expect around 20k for EB2I. But really it's a lot of guess work at this point. At the end of the day, I expect dates to move to at least the end of Sept 2008.vizcard,

I think 20k is a reasonable number.

I did ask people not to get hung up by the exact numbers used in the calculation. It is meant to be more generic than that. I think it illustrates more that people should not expect 30k or 40k for EB2-I, unless something extremely unusual (and outside my comprehension) happens.

As for spillover, EB4 used 7.5k last year. I don't see that decreasing and the backlog of I-360 cases is now quite large.
For EB5, no likely retrogression for EB5-C is a good sign, but it is still likely to approach full usage. EB5 used 7.6k last year and they also have a very large backlog of I-526 cases. EB5 is going through a tricky period at the moment, but I expect that to be resolved before year end.

EB1 is probably the trickiest to call. My estimate is little more than the half way point between approvals in FY2011 and FY2012 and increased approvals within EB1-I can probably fill that gap. We'll see.

Jonty Rhodes

02-23-2013, 05:15 PM

I could not see any update in first page especially after yesterdays from AILA. Can there be still 18K spillover ? Q, Gurus please answer.

I guess the AILA posting that you are asking about is this one. Found it on Ron Gotcher's forum today where a forum member posted it.

http://www.lawbench.com/immigration-news/department-of-state-s-visa-office-head-comments-on-green-card-backlog-issues

vizcard

02-23-2013, 05:26 PM

I guess the AILA posting that you are asking about is this one. Found it on Ron Gotcher's forum today where a forum member posted it.

http://www.lawbench.com/immigration-news/department-of-state-s-visa-office-head-comments-on-green-card-backlog-issues

There was supposedly another meeting yesterday. It's referenced on the AILA site but its for "members only". The content could very well be the same as your link.

qesehmk

02-24-2013, 12:09 PM

That was a typo. Thanks Kanmani for identifying.
Huh? How would this happen? How would EB3 receive SOFAD if EB2IC and EB2ROW were not current? I don't understand...

bandoayan

02-24-2013, 02:36 PM

c) EB2-WW used 25,009 visas last year. Had they not been retrogressed, they might have reached 32,000. That means there are 6,991 visas to flow through into FY2013 above the normal EB2-WW run rate.

d)[/B] The allocation for EB2-WW in FY2013 is 38,862. That is 6,862 higher than the 32,000 normal run rate they might use. The figure is so close to the extra number flowing from FY20112 to 2013, we can say that EB2-WW would use their entire new allocation and not provide Fall Across to EB2-I.

Spec,

Looking at the difference in inventory data between 10/1/12 and 1/3/13 for EB2ROW, it appears that around 7k visas have been issued in Q1, which matches with the figures mentioned in C. Here is the current USCIS EB2 inventory as on 1/3/13:
ROW: 13362
Mexico : 551
Phillipines: 1512
Total: 15425
Assuming 10% cases will be delayed, so approvable cases will be around 14k. This added to the already approved cases becomes around 21k visas.
In order for EB2ROW/M/P to reach 38862, USCIS would need to receive about 18k applications between Jan and May and approve them by September, assuming
I485's filed beyond May won't be approved in this year. Do think that USCIS will receive and receive about 3600 per month from Jan to May? I did not see such high EB2ROW demand in the last few years inventory data.

OhMyGC

02-24-2013, 03:13 PM

The amount of data and knowledge of people in this forum is amazing. Thanks of all the information and analysis.

What is stopping the controller from moving the dates forward as half year is almost passed and he got 18K additional visas?

Spectator

02-24-2013, 04:24 PM

Spec,

Looking at the difference in inventory data between 10/1/12 and 1/3/13 for EB2ROW, it appears that around 7k visas have been issued in Q1, which matches with the figures mentioned in C. Here is the current USCIS EB2 inventory as on 1/3/13:
ROW: 13362
Mexico : 551
Phillipines: 1512
Total: 15425
Assuming 10% cases will be delayed, so approvable cases will be around 14k. This added to the already approved cases becomes around 21k visas.
In order for EB2ROW/M/P to reach 38862, USCIS would need to receive about 18k applications between Jan and May and approve them by September, assuming
I485's filed beyond May won't be approved in this year. Do think that USCIS will receive and receive about 3600 per month from Jan to May? I did not see such high EB2ROW demand in the last few years inventory data.bandoayan,

The USCIS Inventory only captures data for cases where the underlying I-140 has been approved. Many Concurrent Filed cases are probably never captured in the USCIS Inventory.

For Categories (such as EB1) and Groups (such as EB2-ROW) that are generally Current, it does not capture the full numbers. The 7k only represents clearing the numbers that built up during retrogression, but they are not the only approvals for EB2-ROW. If you don't believe me, try using the Inventory for a previous full year (say FY2011) to match the actual numbers approved (30.2k). The Corresponding number for EB2-WW (EB2-ROW-M-P) is 34.6k.

For Q1, I would estimate (from historical Trackitt data) that EB2-WW used something over 13k (of which EB2-ROW was something over 11k). That is much more in line with also having to clear the accumulated cases due to retrogression in FY2012. It is also in line with all overall EB visas available in Q1 being used.

Currently, EB2-WW appears to somewhere over the 20k mark. Even now, it appears that about 20% of cases received by USCIS in June 2012 and 40% of those received in Oct/Nov 2012 still await approval.

Since USCIS seem to be approving a lot of cases in about 4 months, we are still some way from seeing the last of the cases that might still be approved in FY2013.

EB2-WW averaged 2.8k approvals per month in FY2012 and 2.9k approvals per month in FY2011. Even if monthly approvals for EB2-WW drop to 85% of their FY2012 levels going forward, EB2-WW will still reach their revised FY2013 allocation.

Even if I am overestimating the current number, that is enough "wiggle room" for it to still happen.

indian1975

02-24-2013, 06:23 PM

bandoayan,

The USCIS Inventory only captures data for cases where the underlying I-140 has been approved. Many Concurrent Filed cases are probably never captured in the USCIS Inventory.

For Categories (such as EB1) and Groups (such as EB2-ROW) that are generally Current, it does not capture the full numbers. The 7k only represents clearing the numbers that built up during retrogression, but they are not the only approvals for EB2-ROW. If you don't believe me, try using the Inventory for a previous full year (say FY2011) to match the actual numbers approved (30.2k). The Corresponding number for EB2-WW (EB2-ROW-M-P) is 34.6k.

For Q1, I would estimate (from historical Trackitt data) that EB2-WW used something over 13k (of which EB2-ROW was something over 11k). That is much more in line with also having to clear the accumulated cases due to retrogression in FY2012. It is also in line with all overall EB visas available in Q1 being used.

Currently, EB2-WW appears to somewhere over the 20k mark. Even now, it appears that about 20% of cases received by USCIS in June 2012 and 40% of those received in Oct/Nov 2012 still await approval.

Since USCIS seem to be approving a lot of cases in about 4 months, we are still some way from seeing the last of the cases that might still be approved in FY2013.

EB2-WW averaged 2.8k approvals per month in FY2012 and 2.9k approvals per month in FY2011. Even if monthly approvals for EB2-WW drop to 80% of their FY2012 levels going forward, EB2-WW will still reach their revised FY2013 allocation.

Even if I am overestimating the current number, that is enough "wiggle room" for it to still happen.

What is button line here?

Spectator

02-24-2013, 06:49 PM

What is button line here?indian1975,

That I don't expect any Fall Across from EB2-WW to EB2-I.

edisonguy

02-24-2013, 08:56 PM

EB2I or EB3-I ?

indian1975,

That I don't expect any Fall Across from EB2-WW to EB2-I.

Spectator

02-24-2013, 09:24 PM

EB2I or EB3-I ?edisonguy,

Unused visas can (where allowed) either:

a) Fall Up from a lower Category to a higher Category e.g. Visas can Fall Up from EB4 and EB5 to EB1.

b) Fall Down from a higher Category to a lower Category e.g. Visas can Fall Down from EB1 to EB2 or from EB2 to EB3.

c) Fall Across within the same Category e.g. EB2-ROW to EB2-I.

So, by definition, the statement is talking about movement from EB2-WW to EB2-I.

You may also have seen the term SOFAD. This stands for Spill Over Fall Across (and) Down. In addition it also includes the normal allocation, so it represents the total number of visas from All sources.

vizcard

02-25-2013, 12:35 AM

edisonguy,

Unused visas can (where allowed) either:

a) Fall Up from a lower Category to a higher Category e.g. Visas can Fall Up from EB4 and EB5 to EB1.

b) Fall Down from a higher Category to a lower Category e.g. Visas can Fall Down from EB1 to EB2 or from EB2 to EB3.

c) Fall Across within the same Category e.g. EB2-ROW to EB2-I.

So, by definition, the statement is talking about movement from EB2-WW to EB2-I.

You may also have seen the term SOFAD. This stands for Spill Over Fall Across (and) Down. In addition it also includes the normal allocation, so it represents the total number of visas from All sources.

Kudos for such a patient response. :)

Kanmani

02-25-2013, 10:10 AM

indian1975,

That I don't expect any Fall Across from EB2-WW to EB2-I.

Spec,

As per the trackitt data, EB2-WW approvals FY2013 are higher than that of in the previous years', but it was because of the clearance of stagnation caused by the overallocation .

So far the EB2 EB2-WW perm approvals seem to be on the lower side , assuming atleast 30% of the 2012 perm approvals fall into 2013 account.

Your calculation of Zero fall across numbers to EB2IC directly call for retrogression of EB2-WW at the end of FY2013 assuming no FB numbers available.

In the recent past the thought process of zero FA was ok , now I am of a different opinion .

What do you think?

Spectator

02-25-2013, 10:36 AM

Spec,

As per the trackitt data, EB2-WW approvals FY2013 are higher than that of in the previous years', but it was because of the clearance of stagnation caused by the overallocation .Kanmani,

That is effectively what I am saying.

If, for example, there were 2.8k approvals / month for EB2-WW normally and 7k retrogression backlog to clear, that would be (2.8k * 5) + 7 = 21k to date which is about where we seem to be.

The allocation for EB2-WW, including the extra FB visas, is 38.7k. To reach that would require a further 17.7k over 7 months, which is a continuing average monthly rate of about 2.5k per month. I think that is entirely possible for EB2-WW.

So far the EB2 EB2-WW perm approvals seem to be on the lower side , assuming at least 30% of the 2012 perm approvals fall into 2013 account.I think that is a little on the low side. EB2-WW PERM certifications in FY2012 only covered slightly past June 2012 PD, so I think a figure of 45% would be more appropriate.

Your calculation of Zero fall across numbers to EB2IC directly call for retrogression of EB2-WW at the end of FY2013 assuming no FB numbers available.To be picky :) , exactly zero Fall Across would not result in retrogression of EB2-WW since there would be sufficient visas available. FB visas are available, so I don't understand that comment.

If EB2-WW need more visas, they are still not likely to retrogress, since they would then begin to consume Fall Down visas which would otherwise have been available to EB2-I. Only if that supply becomes exhausted would there be a need to retrogress EB2-WW.

In the recent past the thought process of zero FA was ok , now I am of a different opinion .

What do you think?Sorry, I'm not entirely sure what you mean.

Kanmani

02-25-2013, 11:05 AM

To be picky :) , exactly zero Fall Across would not result in retrogression of EB2-WW since there would be sufficient visas available. FB visas are available, so I don't understand that comment.

If EB2-WW need more visas, they are still not likely to retrogress, since they would then begin to consume Fall Down visas which would otherwise have been available to EB2-I. Only if that supply becomes exhausted would there be a need to retrogress EB2-WW.

Sorry, I missed the Fall down numbers. I agree.

Sorry, I'm not entirely sure what you mean.

What I wanted to convey is 'I disagree with you', I know it is not wise to do so :)

CO is expecting a spillover from EB1 to EB2I asper the AILA discussion notes, with this comment why can't we take it as granted that current EB2-WW demand would allow such a fall across satisfying all other 7% country limitation provisions

Spec thanks.

With so much of information provided by you, I stopped scribbling numbers long back, whenever I go through your calculations , I am always hearing a buzz in my head, which was the reason for my confused post above. You are doing way too much to follow. (This is of course a compliment :) )

openaccount

02-25-2013, 11:38 AM

here is full article that AILA mentioned, this happened before FB numbers update it has exact same information mentioned in March VB

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/02/25/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-february-2013/

As usual some notes from CO which has no logic.

EB-2 India.** Very little, if any, movement expected in the short term due to upgrades (porting of priority date) from EB-3 India to EB-2 India.** According to Mr. Oppenheim, in December 2012 alone, India EB-2 had 125 cases approved that were from 2003 or earlier. * Considering the current 2004 cutoff dates, EB-2 India could easily reach the annual limit — an indication that any forward movement is extremely unlikely. * Possible good news is the possibility of certain “fall down”* from EB-1 (numbers are not known at this point) to allow for more numbers to be used for EB-2 India.** “Fall down” refers to taking numbers from one category which may remain unused (EB-1) and allocating t another category which has a high demand (EB-2 India, for example).**** Current numbers indicate that there are approximately 42,000 EB-2 India cases in line with priority dates prior to May 2010.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).* This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year, not unlike what happened during the summer of 2012.

Spectator

02-25-2013, 11:44 AM

Spec thanks.

With so much of information provided by you, I stopped scribbling numbers long back, whenever I go through your calculations , I am always hearing a buzz in my head, which was the reason for my confused post above. You are doing way too much to follow. (This is of course a compliment :) )Kanmani,

That buzz is normal. I usually get a headache. :)

I don't expect people to necessarily agree - I think it is a good thing for statements / predictions / hypotheses to be questioned.

Thanks for the compliment. I know you read everything very thoroughly and have a very good grasp of what is going on.

The only article I have seen that mentioned a figure said that a total of 13k visas might be available to EB2-IC in FY2013.

That was pre the FB visas news. If EB2-WW use their extra visas and EB1, EB4 and EB5 extra visas eventually Fall Down to EB2 as well as the extra that EB2-IC receive directly because the 7% limit calculation, that is an extra 8.4k available to EB2-IC.

The adjusted figure would become 21.4k. Since EB2-C would use 4.1k, that would be 17.3k available to EB2-I.

That isn't really any different from what I am saying.

Kanmani

02-25-2013, 11:54 AM

Kanmani,

That was pre the FB visas news. If EB2-WW use their extra visas and EB1, EB4 and EB5 extra visas eventually Fall Down to EB2 as well as the extra that EB2-IC receive directly because the 7% limit calculation, that is an extra 8.4k available to EB2-IC.

I understood. Fall down from EB1 is not just from EB1, it is the consolidated figure from EB4----->EB5------>EB1------->EB2ROW-------> EB2IC.

Justified!

Spectator

02-25-2013, 12:23 PM

From the above exchange, I'm sure some people (not Kanmani) will be asking why, if there are 18,000 extra FB visas, EB2-IC might only receive 8,425 of them. It's a big difference.

Here's how the 18,000 are distributed across the Categories and what falls to EB2-IC if EB2-WW provide no Fall Across within EB2.

Category -- From FB -- To EB2-IC
EB1 --------- 5,148 -----> 5,148
EB2-C --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-I --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-M --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-P --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-ROW ----- 3,708 ---------> 0
EB3 --------- 5,148 ---------> 0
EB4 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278
EB5 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278

Total ------ 18,000 -----> 8,425

If the full Fall Across from EB2-WW were available, the figure increases to 12,852.

CleanSock

02-25-2013, 12:31 PM

Why would CO say such a thing despite knowing the fact that there are extra 18K visas from FB? :confused:

here is full article that AILA mentioned, this happened before FB numbers update it has exact same information mentioned in March VB

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/02/25/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-february-2013/

As usual some notes from CO which has no logic.

EB-2 India.** Very little, if any, movement expected in the short term due to upgrades (porting of priority date) from EB-3 India to EB-2 India.** According to Mr. Oppenheim, in December 2012 alone, India EB-2 had 125 cases approved that were from 2003 or earlier. * Considering the current 2004 cutoff dates, EB-2 India could easily reach the annual limit — an indication that any forward movement is extremely unlikely. * Possible good news is the possibility of certain “fall down”* from EB-1 (numbers are not known at this point) to allow for more numbers to be used for EB-2 India.** “Fall down” refers to taking numbers from one category which may remain unused (EB-1) and allocating t another category which has a high demand (EB-2 India, for example).**** Current numbers indicate that there are approximately 42,000 EB-2 India cases in line with priority dates prior to May 2010.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).* This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year, not unlike what happened during the summer of 2012.

SeekingGC2013

02-25-2013, 12:48 PM

@Spec

Can you please give the best Range you think the dates would end up by Sept 2013 - for all the possibilities of the numbers you had crunched in?

Would it be - May - 2008 - Sept 2008?

thanks

From the above exchange, I'm sure some people (not Kanmani) will be asking why, if there are 18,000 extra FB visas, EB2-IC might only receive 8,425 of them. It's a big difference.

Here's how the 18,000 are distributed across the Categories and what falls to EB2-IC if EB2-WW provide no Fall Across within EB2.

Category -- From FB -- To EB2-IC
EB1 --------- 5,148 -----> 5,148
EB2-C --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-I --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-M --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-P --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-ROW ----- 3,708 ---------> 0
EB3 --------- 5,148 ---------> 0
EB4 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278
EB5 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278

Total ------ 18,000 -----> 8,425

If the full Fall Across from EB2-WW were available, the figure increases to 12,852.

Spectator

02-25-2013, 12:52 PM

Why would CO say such a thing despite knowing the fact that there are extra 18K visas from FB? :confused:CleanSock,

Since the meeting pre-dates the announcement of the extra FB visas, I think we have to assume that the comments relate to a situation where only 140k were available and are based on that assumption (even if privately CO had knowledge of the FB numbers).

In that situation, EB2-WW would only have about 34k visa available to them. With that number it was not entirely impossible for the EB2-WW demand in FY2013 to exceed 34k plus any Fall Down available from EB1. If that were the case, EB2-WW would have to be retrogressed and EB2-IC would have essentially received no spillover at all.

With the extra 18k FB visa announcement, it becomes virtually impossible for EB2-WW to retrogress.

If EB2-WW usage is particularly high, then it could begin to impact the number of Fall Down visas available to EB2-I.

The other scenario that would necessitate EB2-WW retrogression is if CO allocates too many visas, too early, to EB2-IC, as he did last year, leaving too few for the actual EB2-WW demand in FY2013.

I don't think that is going to happen.

bvsamrat

02-25-2013, 02:00 PM

Spec.

One thing that I can not quite follow is that being current despite clearing last years backlog (assuming that it is cleared by monthly quota and not borrowed from future) how EB2 WW can consume all their own and also extra from FB spill?,given that EB2 WW inventory in January 2013 is only 13,385 ( frankly I do not know the inventory as of now? which might explain somewhat ) and next few months applications might not be easily converted into demand ?

From the above exchange, I'm sure some people (not Kanmani) will be asking why, if there are 18,000 extra FB visas, EB2-IC might only receive 8,425 of them. It's a big difference.

Here's how the 18,000 are distributed across the Categories and what falls to EB2-IC if EB2-WW provide no Fall Across within EB2.

Category -- From FB -- To EB2-IC
EB1 --------- 5,148 -----> 5,148
EB2-C --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-I --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-M --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-P --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-ROW ----- 3,708 ---------> 0
EB3 --------- 5,148 ---------> 0
EB4 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278
EB5 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278

Total ------ 18,000 -----> 8,425

If the full Fall Across from EB2-WW were available, the figure increases to 12,852.

dreamer

02-25-2013, 02:09 PM

Gurus have listed their predictions on 1st page (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013). I am not a guru but will try my best to answer based on what I have been following on this thread.

Based on Spec's earlier analysis, looks like we will be getting approx. 21K SOFAD/Spillover (as he mentioned don't hung up on exact numbers). If we consider this number, from I-485 pending inventory data and March demand data, there is approximately,

22 k demand by end of Sep 2008 for IC
24 k demand by end of Oct 2008 for IC

So, based on how much buffer CO wants, dates can move anywhere between Sep 2008 - Dec 2008 by end of FY 2013, i.e., Sep 2013. Hope this helps.

@Spec

Can you please give the best Range you think the dates would end up by Sept 2013 - for all the possibilities of the numbers you had crunched in?

Would it be - May - 2008 - Sept 2008?

thanks

Spectator

02-25-2013, 03:13 PM

My last on the subject for a while.

@Spec

Can you please give the best Range you think the dates would end up by Sept 2013 - for all the possibilities of the numbers you had crunched in?

Would it be - May - 2008 - Sept 2008?

thanksSeekingGC2013,

Some people get annoyed when I switch from Calculation Mode to Prediction Mode.

All I will say is that range is not unrealistic.

Gurus have listed their predictions on 1st page (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013). I am not a guru but will try my best to answer based on what I have been following on this thread.

Based on Spec's earlier analysis, looks like we will be getting approx. 21K SOFAD/Spillover (as he mentioned don't hung up on exact numbers). If we consider this number, from I-485 pending inventory data and March demand data, there is approximately,

22 k demand by end of Sep 2008 for IC
24 k demand by end of Oct 2008 for IC

So, based on how much buffer CO wants, dates can move anywhere between Sep 2008 - Dec 2008 by end of FY 2013, i.e., Sep 2013. Hope this helps.dreamer,

Remember that those figures do not include any approvals in the first 4 months of FY2013 for EB2-IC or any future approvals that are not already part of the Demand Data. The other part we don't know is what % of pending cases will actually be approved, other than it probably won't be 100%.

idiotic

02-25-2013, 03:42 PM

http://www.cilawgroup.com/topics/news/

Multiple lawyers have started putting the 22nd AILA meeting details out on their webpage. Food for thought.

pdmay2008

02-25-2013, 03:47 PM

http://www.cilawgroup.com/topics/news/

Multiple lawyers have started putting the 22nd AILA meeting details out on their webpage. Food for thought.

Yes. But they are definitely the information before FB Spill over news. They might have posted same notes today. If you think based on numbers available, there will be definitely big forward movement in Q4. Let's hope for the best.

Spectator

02-25-2013, 04:12 PM

The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) figures have been updated with the December 2012 figures.

CleanSock

02-25-2013, 09:05 PM

Thank You Spec! That explains it all.

CleanSock,

Since the meeting pre-dates the announcement of the extra FB visas, I think we have to assume that the comments relate to a situation where only 140k were available and are based on that assumption (even if privately CO had knowledge of the FB numbers).

In that situation, EB2-WW would only have about 34k visa available to them. With that number it was not entirely impossible for the EB2-WW demand in FY2013 to exceed 34k plus any Fall Down available from EB1. If that were the case, EB2-WW would have to be retrogressed and EB2-IC would have essentially received no spillover at all.

With the extra 18k FB visa announcement, it becomes virtually impossible for EB2-WW to retrogress.

If EB2-WW usage is particularly high, then it could begin to impact the number of Fall Down visas available to EB2-I.

The other scenario that would necessitate EB2-WW retrogression is if CO allocates too many visas, too early, to EB2-IC, as he did last year, leaving too few for the actual EB2-WW demand in FY2013.

I don't think that is going to happen.

incredible

02-26-2013, 12:50 PM

Hi
I am new to this forum and amazed at the amount of calculations etc that are used in this forum. My priority date is similar to what gkjppp had. What is the probability of early 2010 becoming current in the next financial year (2014) ?

gkjppp

02-26-2013, 01:20 PM

if current trend continuous for next couple of years without immigration reform, its unlikely to be current. with FB spillover we may or maynot reach sep'2008 this year. again there must be retro during start of next fiscal year to takecare of porting etc. it needs almost 25k+ visas for 2014 to see light for us.Spec has already explained with data.

Hi
I am new to this forum and amazed at the amount of calculations etc that are used in this forum. My priority date is similar to what gkjppp had. What is the probability of early 2010 becoming current in the next financial year (2014) ?

Spectator

02-26-2013, 01:34 PM

if current trend continuous for next couple of years without immigration reform, its unlikely to be current. with FB spillover we may or maynot reach sep'2008 this year. again there must be retro during start of next fiscal year to takecare of porting etc. it needs almost 25k+ visas for 2014 to see light for us.Spec has already explained with data.gkjppp,

Unfortunately, I agree with your prognosis.

With porting over 2 years, it probably requires close to 45k EB2-I approvals for EB2-I to reach the end of 2009. Then it requires about 1k per month within 2010 according to the current figures.

Including EB2-C that translates into more than 50k SOFAD across FY2013 and FY2014 just to reach 2010.

That is probably a tough ask.

dreamer

02-26-2013, 02:50 PM

Spectator.

I completely agree with you. Its hard to accurately predict and read whats on CO's mind. I was just trying to explain by taking spillover numbers as constant, which itself is highly variable number.

Last but not least, I really admire your contribution to the immigration community and like you number crunching/analysis.

My last on the subject for a while.

SeekingGC2013,

Some people get annoyed when I switch from Calculation Mode to Prediction Mode.

All I will say is that range is not unrealistic.

dreamer,

Remember that those figures do not include any approvals in the first 4 months of FY2013 for EB2-IC or any future approvals that are not already part of the Demand Data. The other part we don't know is what % of pending cases will actually be approved, other than it probably won't be 100%.

druvraj

02-26-2013, 04:13 PM

With sequestration i.e reduction in USCIS budget and potential reduction in personnel coming up do we have to adjust the prediction? Do we have to account for less number of GCs being issued? How about the loss of 3-5K ? I know this variable is unknown and is completely a what if scenario but still I thought of floating the idea around.

qesehmk

02-26-2013, 04:18 PM

Friends,

I have updated the header http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013)

Unfortunately I too do not have any better news. Every single category has strong ongoing demand and significant backlog which together pretty much leaves EB2IC high and dry this year. The only thing that will work in EB2IC favor is the 12K FB visas (5K alloted to EB3 and 1K to EB5).

I am now reasonably comfortable with this forecast. IMHO the forecast error could be 2-3 months max.

go4green

02-26-2013, 04:27 PM

Hello every one.

I have been an avid reader and follower of this Forum from long time. Just wanted to share my thoughts.
This is the only forum (to my knowledge) which discusses and analyzes the immigration numbers with a blend of calculations and sensible predictions.
I would like to express my heart full Thanks and Admiration towards Q, Spec and all the others who are contributing so VALUABLE insights.

Thank you for letting me to be a part of this group.

Spectator.

I completely agree with you. Its hard to accurately predict and read whats on CO's mind. I was just trying to explain by taking spillover numbers as constant, which itself is highly variable number.

Last but not least, I really admire your contribution to the immigration community and like you number crunching/analysis.

bvsamrat

02-26-2013, 04:38 PM

I will frame it otherway. The number balance may not match always.

We see that there is atleast some percent unresolved cases either due to RFE (Either EVL or AC21) or some other checks being re-initiated.

This percent number could be very much a gray area, but CO might have some idea of this or may take guess.

For eg. if we take this at 20%, then the PD progress date would dart head.

More delay in applying the spill over, the more progression of PD would be.

For eg. If in strict sense, spill over is applied in last quarter, the PD would have to be randonly extended ahead but with a plan to pull back or control in next 3 months.

I don't know if it's a factor, but if it is, it will be a massive boon to EB2-I. True, the USCIS will issue less GCs, but those will be to EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4 and EB5 - i.e. categories those are current and those require processing right now. EB2-I cases have been processed and 42K pre-adjudicated cases are ready to be given green cards. If other categories do not get theirs, EB2-I will gladly absorb whatever it can get. Remember - a slow processing by the USCIS is what the EB2-I needs to waltz ahead.

erikbond101

02-26-2013, 05:01 PM

Updated on February 17, 2013

The FY2012 DOS Visa statistics provided some very nice surprises.

FB underused their allocation and may provide as many as 13.2k extra visas to EB2.

EB4 did not use their full allocation again and I now feel confident to allow some spillover from EB4.

EB1 had high usage in FY2012, but this may be a rebound effect from Kazarian in FY2011. Nonetheless, for prediction purposes I am going to use a lower figure for FY2013.

EB2-ROW and EB2-Philippines were on target to use or exceed their allocation, while EB2-Mexico would still have provided spare numbers had retrogression not been imposed.

Currently, I am using the following spillover numbers for FY2013 based on 158.5k being available to EB:

EB1 ----– 10.3
EB2-M –--- 1.8
EB2-P –-- (0.5)
EB2-ROW – (0.4)
EB3 ------ 0.0
EB4 ------ 3.3
EB5 ------ 1.3
Total --- 15.8 k spillover.

At that level EB2-China should not use any spillover and use only their 3.2k initial allocation.

EB2-India would have around 19-20k visas available including the 3.2k initial allocation.

That might be sufficient to clear all cases to about July 2008.

The above might be conservative. There are still big doubts about the performance of EB1 and EB2-ROW/P.

It is quite possible that the numbers available will be somewhat better than that.

Also, as mentioned above, it assumes that all cases will be cleared. We know that is never the case, so Cut Off Dates will probably move to nearer the end of 2008.

Movement into 2009 seems relatively less likely, but it is not impossible.

]

Hi Spec,
If we assume dates will start moving in July 2013. By that time EB2-I may have already used 2372 normal allocated visas out of 3163. So now at this point of time total number of available visas are 15 K + 1K = 16 K available.
As of Feb 2013 demand data is showing 7300 pending till Jan 1 2008.

To reach end April 2008
7300 + 5086 (number from pending I-485) = 12386 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 13636 (needs 12.5K spillover)

To reach end June 2008
7300 + 7938 (number from pending I-485) = 15238 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 16488 (needs 15.5K spillover)

To reach end Sep 2008
7300 + 11573 (number from pending I-485) = 18873 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 20123 (needs 19.0 K spillover)

extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months ----demand data number is increasing by around 200-300 every month.

Let me know what you think.

geeaarpee

02-26-2013, 05:38 PM

One quick question probably a very stupid question (as you can see this is my post here...)

From the above post and in the other places before the porting #s for this year are being considered around 3k-5k - is it purely prediction or has some calculation behind (if so may I know how we ended up with this #? - from the recent Perm/I-140 approvals may be?). Also this 3k-5k is only the primary or include the dependants too?

BTW, Hats off to all the gurus, pandits, sophomores and others here - great job!

indiasunil

02-26-2013, 06:11 PM

From Trackitt:

It is almost clear 13K of the FB spillover will come to EB2. The question is will EB2 ROW need some from FB to remain current. Not sure so far.
For the sake of discussion let us assume, EB2 WW requires additional 5000 visas. That will leave 8000 visas for EB2I. There will be additional spill over from EB1 for sure, let us say 3000 visas. So the minimum spillover is 11000.
11K + 2.8 K normal quota. it is roughly 14K.

The wild card is EB3 I to EB2 I portings.There are 7300 , EB2 I applications until end of 2007. Let us say another 5000 portings between now and end of fiscal. So the total demand is 7300 + 5000 = 12300 to cover the until 2007. That leaves atleast 3000 visas into 2008. Roughly February of 2008. This is the most pessimistic approach according to me.

Pessimistic Approach: February 2008.
Realistic Approach : June 2008. ( EB2 WW needs only 1K spill over from FB, and EB1 yeilds roughly 4k, EB4 and EB5 yields 2K)
Optimistic Approach : September 2008. ( For the controller to make sure visas are not wasted)

Either way it is for sure, it will reach close to mid of 2008. :):)

Spectator

02-26-2013, 07:04 PM

Hi Spec,
If we assume dates will start moving in July 2013. By that time EB2-I may have already used 2372 normal allocated visas out of 3163. So now at this point of time total number of available visas are 15 K + 1K = 16 K available.
As of Feb 2013 demand data is showing 7300 pending till Jan 1 2008.

To reach end April 2008
7300 + 5086 (number from pending I-485) = 12386 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 13636 (needs 12.5K spillover)

To reach end June 2008
7300 + 7938 (number from pending I-485) = 15238 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 16488 (needs 15.5K spillover)

To reach end Sep 2008
7300 + 11573 (number from pending I-485) = 18873 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 20123 (needs 19.0 K spillover)

extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months ----demand data number is increasing by around 200-300 every month.

Let me know what you think.erikbond101,

It is easier just to add the total amount of porting cases you estimate for the year to the base number to reach a particular Cut Off Date.

Currently, your calculation does not take account of the cases already approved in Oct-Jan. That is probably about a further 1k.

Until the PD becomes Current, a porting case will not show in the Demand Data for EB2, since USCIS cannot request a visa under EB2 until then. So far, that is all cases with a PD of Sept 2004 or later that became ready to adjudicate since June 2012. By July 2013, there will be over a year's worth to add as the Cut off Date moves forward (assuming it stays relatively unchanged until then).

From the beginning of February 2013 (the date the DD was published) there are 8 months remaining in the FY, not the 5 you are allowing. Your estimate of further porting cases looks on the low side, since it would total only (the missing 1k) plus 1.25k. So far this year, PD2003 and 3/4 of PD2004 alone seem to have been able to sustain 250 / month.

This reply is in no way meant to sound critical - it's just intended to bring to your attention some points you may wish to consider. You certainly don't need to agree. Good luck with your number crunching.

dec2007

02-26-2013, 07:40 PM

What does pre-adjudication really mean.

I called USCIS to find about my RFE on 485, and they said my case is pre-adjudicated. DOes it mean RFE is cleared.

Thanks,

imdeng

02-26-2013, 09:07 PM

My impression is that USCIS runs entirely on the fees that it collects. There is no additional funding from the federal govt - so sequestration should have no effect on USCIS' working.

PS> Hello everyone. Its been some time since I posted anything.

With sequestration i.e reduction in USCIS budget and potential reduction in personnel coming up do we have to adjust the prediction? Do we have to account for less number of GCs being issued? How about the loss of 3-5K ? I know this variable is unknown and is completely a what if scenario but still I thought of floating the idea around.

imdeng

02-26-2013, 09:09 PM

pre-adjudication means that your case is ready to receive a visa number, when available - documentarily qualified is the official term I think. I would guess that that means that your RFE is cleared.

What does pre-adjudication really mean.

I called USCIS to find about my RFE on 485, and they said my case is pre-adjudicated. DOes it mean RFE is cleared.

Thanks,

erikbond101

02-26-2013, 09:57 PM

erikbond101,

It is easier just to add the total amount of porting cases you estimate for the year to the base number to reach a particular Cut Off Date.

Currently, your calculation does not take account of the cases already approved in Oct-Jan. That is probably about a further 1k.

Sure Thanks. I have included Oct-Jan 2013 in regular quota for 9 months till July. (263*9 = 2372). So left out for this year is around 1K from regular quota. (15K spillover + 1K = 16 K)

Until the PD becomes Current, a porting case will not show in the Demand Data for EB2, since USCIS cannot request a visa under EB2 until then. So far, that is all cases with a PD of Sept 2004 or later that became ready to adjudicate since June 2012. By July 2013, there will be over a year's worth to add as the Cut off Date moves forward (assuming it stays relatively unchanged until then).

Then how come demand data number is increasing from past 4 months???

From the beginning of February 2013 (the date the DD was published) there are 8 months remaining in the FY, not the 5 you are allowing.
I did consider it see above.

Your estimate of further porting cases looks on the low side, since it would total only (the missing 1k) plus 1.25k. So far this year, PD2003 and 3/4 of PD2004 alone seem to have been able to sustain 250 / month.
Now this is a worrying aspect. If 250 numbers are getting consumed only in 2003 and 2004, (250*9 = 2250 till July considered above) then what will happen if we consider rest of 2004 and 2005 2006 2007, 2008. (assume 400*9 = 3600 extra numbers needed to adjudicated in July 2013). So here I was wrong it should be 3600 instead of 1250 in July 2013.

This reply is in no way meant to sound critical - it's just intended to bring to your attention some points you may wish to consider. You certainly don't need to agree. Good luck with your number crunching.

Well criticism improves critical thinking.

dec2007

02-26-2013, 10:08 PM

erikbond101

02-26-2013, 10:11 PM

To reach end April 2008
7300 + 5086 (number from pending I-485) = 12386 + 3600 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 15986 (needs 15 K spillover)

To reach end June 2008
7300 + 7938 (number from pending I-485) = 15238 + 3600 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 18838 (needs 17.8K spillover)

To reach end Sep 2008
7300 + 11573 (number from pending I-485) = 18873 + 3600 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 22473 (needs 21.5 K spillover)

Spectator

02-26-2013, 11:21 PM

Then how come demand data number is increasing from past 4 months???erikbond101,

It isn't really if you analyse the numbers by year.

Increases in 2007 to 2010 can be attributed to cases received before May/June 2012 continuing to become preadjudicated.

Only cases in pre 2004-2006 can really be identified specifically as porting.

The first Demand Data to split the numbers back to 2004 and earlier was December 2012. Here's the monthly movement since then.

---------- 2004 -- 2005 -- 2006 -- Total
January ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 150
February ---- 0 ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 100
March ------ 25 ---- 25 ---- 50 ---- 100

Total ------ 75 --- 125 --- 150 ---- 350

That seems more consistent with either a normal fluctuation in the figures or a few cases received before June 2012 finally becoming pre-adjudicated, just as the 2007-2010 cases have been.

To me, it does not represent the numbers I would expect for all porters and is consistent with large numbers waiting for their PD to become Current.

redsox2009

02-27-2013, 09:03 AM

Latest National Processing Volumes and Trends

I-140 Volume in Dec 12 is 7185 and I-485 volume is 14846. Both are less than previous month number, ignoring Oct 12 for I-485.(As OCT 12, VB dates are not current for ROW EB2)

Total Total
Mon/ I-485 I-140
Jan11 13422 6056
Feb11 14352 6859
Mar11 22258 8739
Apr11 20008 7464
May11 19010 6665
Jun11 19724 6597
Jul11 19271 6081
Aug11 18845 6989
Sep11 16060 5786
Oct11 17562 6244
Nov11 20977 5885
Dec11 23708 5850
Jan12 27506 4896
Feb12 30551 4762
Mar12 26717 4836
Apr12 18341 4670
May12 15802 5635
Jun12 17170 7297
Jul12 15560 8093
Aug12 12657 7886
Sep12 10826 6910
Oct12 14127 8978
Nov12 16770 7343
Dec12 14846 7185

Spectator

02-27-2013, 09:19 AM

redsox2009,

Isn't it November 2012 you need to ignore?

The Cut Off Date for EB2-WW moved to 01JAN12 in October, but only became Current in November. Wouldn't that be the odd month? - higher than normal Receipts would be expected, since any 2012 PD would have been waiting since July 2012 to file.

The I-140 Receipts are at the highest level since mid 2011.

Kanmani

02-27-2013, 09:32 AM

Spec,

Does this volume include concurrent filing I-485 ? in otherwords, do they follow the same rule as that of inventory? (I-485 included only after I140 approval)

Spectator

02-27-2013, 09:50 AM

Spec,

Does this volume include concurrent filing I-485 ? in otherwords, do they follow the same rule as that of inventory? (I-485 included only after I140 approval)Kanmani,

I have no idea.

I have always assumed (unlike the USCIS Inventory) that the number includes all I-485 submitted.

Of course, not all I-485 submitted to NSC and TSC are EB - I believe EB historically only account for about 44% of the total. Last year that rose to 59%, but I think that was distorted by the large number of EB2-IC who could file I-485 in FY2012.

SeekingGC2013

02-27-2013, 04:03 PM

@GURUS

When would be an approximate time to get an idea on the Porting movement, What the Q3 would look like with Priority Dates for FY2013.

thanks

Kanmani,

I have no idea.

I have always assumed (unlike the USCIS Inventory) that the number includes all I-485 submitted.

Of course, not all I-485 submitted to NSC and TSC are EB - I believe EB historically only account for about 44% of the total. Last year that rose to 59%, but I think that was distorted by the large number of EB2-IC who could file I-485 in FY2012.

geeaarpee

02-27-2013, 05:36 PM

vizcard

02-27-2013, 06:14 PM

I found this in trackitt:

"My lawyer said me that the dates for EB2I can go back to 2003. It is because a couple of major corporations ported all their employees from EB3 to EB2. they can consume 3500 visas easily."

Can this be true? and it goes back to my previous question (see few posts above)

It won't go back to 2003 this year. It could and most likely will move back significantly in Oct. How the lawyers got 2003 - who knows? If by "couple", he meant 2, then I think its a major stretch. I can't imagine 2 companies with 3500 EB3 employees. Only the Infosys, Wipro types have that kind of size.

veni001

02-27-2013, 07:32 PM

It won't go back to 2003 this year. It could and most likely will move back significantly in Oct. How the lawyers got 2003 - who knows? If by "couple", he meant 2, then I think its a major stretch. I can't imagine 2 companies with 3500 EB3 employees. Only the Infosys, Wipro types have that kind of size.

Agree with vizcard's comment.

geeaarpee

02-27-2013, 07:34 PM

gcq

02-27-2013, 07:40 PM

I found this in trackitt:

"My lawyer said me that the dates for EB2I can go back to 2003. It is because a couple of major corporations ported all their employees from EB3 to EB2. they can consume 3500 visas easily."

Can this be true? and it goes back to my previous question (see few posts above)

The current retrogression is due to massive porting of EB2 applicants to EB1. Many reputed companies in silicon valley are doing this. EB3 to EB2 porting was always there, it didn't increase drastically recently. EB2->EB1 porting has starved EB2 of the massive spillovers they used to get and hence the retrogression.

qesehmk

02-27-2013, 10:08 PM

There sure is what seems to be misuse of EB1. Unfortunately the misuse is within USCIS rules - so unless there is rule change, this is going to continue. This is quite controversial - and so my last word today on this topic.
The current retrogression is due to massive porting of EB2 applicants to EB1. Many reputed companies in silicon valley are doing this. EB3 to EB2 porting was always there, it didn't increase drastically recently. EB2->EB1 porting has starved EB2 of the massive spillovers they used to get and hence the retrogression.

helooo

02-28-2013, 08:47 AM

Hope USCIS allows the filing of I485 after I140 is approved.That will help everybody EB2/EB3 IC ROW.This is an Administrative fix.But again there should be a desire to fix the problem.

vizcard

02-28-2013, 09:04 AM

It doesn't have to be 3500 employees right, it can be 900 employees and 2600 dependents right?

Fair point although even 900 pure EB3 from 2 companies would be rather large. But at this point it's pure speculation from the lawyers perspective (and mine). I work a company with 30k employees in the US. I don't think we have more than 100 or 150 EB3. Although we probably have a sizable EB2 population.

Btw, I trust the calculations here way more than a single data point and that includes words from COs mouth let alone a lawyer who is guessing.

geeaarpee

02-28-2013, 10:05 AM

Fair point although even 900 pure EB3 from 2 companies would be rather large. But at this point it's pure speculation from the lawyers perspective (and mine). I work a company with 30k employees in the US. I don't think we have more than 100 or 150 EB3. Although we probably have a sizable EB2 population.

Btw, I trust the calculations here way more than a single data point and that includes words from COs mouth let alone a lawyer who is guessing.

I agree and I'm not trying to argue - but trying to find out the odds with this porting stuff...

I remember back in 2007 (during those substitution labor days), when the dates became current for all categories, every tom, dick and harry in these indian consulting companies got eb3 labor substituted for money, depending on the amount they were willing to pay, some even got labors dated back to 2003-2005 timeframes (the scale of money transacted was so huge that was even compared to the taxi licensing fiasco happened in New York way back). Now these are the indian consulting companies trying to port these labors in bulk becos all these guys became senior managers and directors in these companies in the past 4-5 years and have the power to influence their HRs and Visa departments to make this bulk porting (EB3 to EB2) possible...

So trying to figure out what could be the worst case #s for these porting (if we can predict/calculate). Remember there are atleast 20k+ primary applicants between the current EB3I and EB2I cutoff dates. What are the odds?

justvisiting

02-28-2013, 10:23 AM

I agree and I'm not trying to argue - but trying to find out the odds with this porting stuff...

I remember back in 2007 (during those substitution labor days), when the dates became current for all categories, every tom, dick and harry in these indian consulting companies got eb3 labor substituted for money, depending on the amount they were willing to pay, some even got labors dated back to 2003-2005 timeframes (the scale of money transacted was so huge that was even compared to the taxi licensing fiasco happened in New York way back). Now these are the indian consulting companies trying to port these labors in bulk becos all these guys became senior managers and directors in these companies in the past 4-5 years and have the power to influence their HRs and Visa departments to make this bulk porting possible...

So trying to figure out what could be the worst case #s for these porting (if we can predict/calculate). Remember there are atleast 20k+ primary applicants between the current EB3I and EB2I cutoff dates. What are the odds?

EB2 to EB1 "porting" is much more straightforward, no PERM required, no recruitment, no PWD. Just proof that someone is a manager aborad and is a manger here. The definition is so loose...