EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Spectator]

For those interested in the figures.

Q1-Q3 FY2014 figures are from the official OFLC Disclosure Data. July and August figures are from the DOL LCR.

a) PERM Certifications by FY of Decision by DOL.
675

b) Perm Certifications by CY of Priority Date (as derived from A-number).
676

[vizcard]

Thank you vizcard. Please don't be sorry. Mr. Presidendent's EO is the only hope then.
Any idea iff EO is released in favor of ill fate lawful immigrants who are stuck in the limbo is it going to be affective as of the date of order? Did some googling but did not get a complete idea how it works.

No idea. But I would imagine the intent of an EO is to make it happen immediately.

[vizcard]

First thing, we haven't got the EAD yet.

Also as we file h1 transfer, do we need to inform uscis about it?

To do a h1 transfer, the new employer will have to file paperwork. It is not like an EAD where u get more freedom.

[Spectator]

USCIS have updated the Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov) with the figures for June 2014.

[qbloguser]

I saw March 2009 cases approved from NSC - They were current in Sept. What does this mean? NSC is done with 2008 cases or what? Will TSC follow?



Updates from trackitt:

#Eb2I approvals from July 2014-now: 735
#EB2I approvals YTD: 1452

NSC has started approving Sept cases. TSC is catching up fast and exhausting backlog. The trend is looking good so far. No approvals yet for July 2014 filers but I expect some to get those in Oct 2014. At this rate, retrogression is a certainty in November. Good luck to everyone who is waiting to be greened.

[imdeng]

Its a good thing. As much of 2008 and early 2009 we can finish, easier it will be for the next spillover season considering all the headwinds anticipated. Retrogression in Nov is a near certainty irrespective of the current approval pace.


Updates from trackitt:

#Eb2I approvals from July 2014-now: 735
#EB2I approvals YTD: 1452

NSC has started approving Sept cases. TSC is catching up fast and exhausting backlog. The trend is looking good so far. No approvals yet for July 2014 filers but I expect some to get those in Oct 2014. At this rate, retrogression is a certainty in November. Good luck to everyone who is waiting to be greened.

[imdeng]

It only means that the window of approvals is moving forward and has reached Sept current folks. It does not mean that NSC is done with 2008. I am sure NSC will also start approving scattering of Feb-Mar-Apr 2009 folks as well.

I saw March 2009 cases approved from NSC - They were current in Sept. What does this mean? NSC is done with 2008 cases or what? Will TSC follow?

[imdeng]

It seems like we will not be carrying too much of an inventory overhang into the next FY. Depends on when they do an internal retrogression and throttle the approval pace - but I can see entering 2015 with just a couple thousand inventory overhang for EB2I (meaning folks who were current but did not get approved hence they are carried over to the next FY). A good number of these should then be cleared in Oct - giving us a clean slate for FY2015.

[imdeng]

It seems like we will not be carrying too much of an inventory overhang into the next FY. Depends on when they do an internal retrogression and throttle the approval pace - but I can see entering 2015 with just a couple thousand inventory overhang for EB2I (meaning folks who were current but did not get approved hence they are carried over to the next FY). A good number of these should then be cleared in Oct - giving us a clean slate for FY2015.

[gten20]

It seems like we will not be carrying too much of an inventory overhang into the next FY. Depends on when they do an internal retrogression and throttle the approval pace - but I can see entering 2015 with just a couple thousand inventory overhang for EB2I (meaning folks who were current but did not get approved hence they are carried over to the next FY). A good number of these should then be cleared in Oct - giving us a clean slate for FY2015.

A clean slate for 2015? Are you anticipating inventory build up?

[gten20]

It seems like we will not be carrying too much of an inventory overhang into the next FY. Depends on when they do an internal retrogression and throttle the approval pace - but I can see entering 2015 with just a couple thousand inventory overhang for EB2I (meaning folks who were current but did not get approved hence they are carried over to the next FY). A good number of these should then be cleared in Oct - giving us a clean slate for FY2015.

A clean slate for 2015? Are you anticipating inventory build up?

[bluelabel]

Per July 21st 2014 485 inventory, there are 17890 EB2I applications up to PD May1st 2009(of which 1086 are prior to 1st Jan 2007). As per the tracking spread sheet, so far 900 have been approved from July1st. If we deduct the approvals till July21st, net approvals will be 900-165 = 735.

If trackitt conversion ratio is 13, so far 735*13 = 9555 green cards been issued. I doubt USCIS will approve (or have that much spill over left) additional 8335 (17890-9555) GCs in next 27 days to clear out the backlog.

If at least additional 5000 is cleared in September, around 3000 will be carried to FY2015.

Total 485 inventory starting Oct 2014 would be 3000+13344(from may2009 till May2010)+New applications from July to September 2014+2014 porting.

There are fair chances that dates would progress starting October 2015 and clear out the backlog if we get atleast 15000(spill over plus regular quota) in FY2015.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vuJfcbJiRj_vsMqA8i_5yXV03_N98CIr0Gg7cdIVbCc/edit?pli=1#gid=1073280392

[bluelabel]

Per July 21st 2014 485 inventory, there are 17890 EB2I applications up to PD May1st 2009(of which 1086 are prior to 1st Jan 2007). As per the tracking spread sheet, so far 900 have been approved from July1st. If we deduct the approvals till July21st, net approvals will be 900-165 = 735.

If trackitt conversion ratio is 13, so far 735*13 = 9555 green cards been issued. I doubt USCIS will approve (or have that much spill over left) additional 8335 (17890-9555) GCs in next 27 days to clear out the backlog.

If at least additional 5000 is cleared in September, around 3000 will be carried to FY2015.

Total 485 inventory starting Oct 2014 would be 3000+13344(from may2009 till May2010)+New applications from July to September 2014+2014 porting.

There are fair chances that dates would progress starting October 2015 and clear out the backlog if we get atleast 15000(spill over plus regular quota) in FY2015.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vuJfcbJiRj_vsMqA8i_5yXV03_N98CIr0Gg7cdIVbCc/edit?pli=1#gid=1073280392

[imdeng]

Nah - I meant clean slate up to 01MAY2009. We will have approx 15K inventory left after this FY. Add few thousand porters and some new filers. Conceivably, EB2I inventory can handle a good 18K visa supply for next FY - so as such there is no urgent need of new inventory in FY2015. Of course, considering various contingencies and to keep some buffer in hand, CO might still want to do so - but then who knows CO's mind.

A clean slate for 2015? Are you anticipating inventory build up?

[imdeng]

Nah - I meant clean slate up to 01MAY2009. We will have approx 15K inventory left after this FY. Add few thousand porters and some new filers. Conceivably, EB2I inventory can handle a good 18K visa supply for next FY - so as such there is no urgent need of new inventory in FY2015. Of course, considering various contingencies and to keep some buffer in hand, CO might still want to do so - but then who knows CO's mind.

A clean slate for 2015? Are you anticipating inventory build up?

[imdeng]

Inventory never really gets fully cleared. There always are cases that are abandoned or get extended review or even rejected. For example - 2004+2005+2006 has 1000 EB2I demand sitting in the inventory. We can expect another ~1000 such demand in 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Per July 21st 2014 485 inventory, there are 17890 EB2I applications up to PD May1st 2009(of which 1086 are prior to 1st Jan 2007). As per the tracking spread sheet, so far 900 have been approved from July1st. If we deduct the approvals till July21st, net approvals will be 900-165 = 735.

If trackitt conversion ratio is 13, so far 735*13 = 9555 green cards been issued. I doubt USCIS will approve (or have that much spill over left) additional 8335 (17890-9555) GCs in next 27 days to clear out the backlog.

If at least additional 5000 is cleared in September, around 3000 will be carried to FY2015.

Total 485 inventory starting Oct 2014 would be 3000+13344(from may2009 till May2010)+New applications from July to September 2014+2014 porting.

There are fair chances that dates would progress starting October 2015 and clear out the backlog if we get atleast 15000(spill over plus regular quota) in FY2015.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vuJfcbJiRj_vsMqA8i_5yXV03_N98CIr0Gg7cdIVbCc/edit?pli=1#gid=1073280392

[imdeng]

Inventory never really gets fully cleared. There always are cases that are abandoned or get extended review or even rejected. For example - 2004+2005+2006 has 1000 EB2I demand sitting in the inventory. We can expect another ~1000 such demand in 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Per July 21st 2014 485 inventory, there are 17890 EB2I applications up to PD May1st 2009(of which 1086 are prior to 1st Jan 2007). As per the tracking spread sheet, so far 900 have been approved from July1st. If we deduct the approvals till July21st, net approvals will be 900-165 = 735.

If trackitt conversion ratio is 13, so far 735*13 = 9555 green cards been issued. I doubt USCIS will approve (or have that much spill over left) additional 8335 (17890-9555) GCs in next 27 days to clear out the backlog.

If at least additional 5000 is cleared in September, around 3000 will be carried to FY2015.

Total 485 inventory starting Oct 2014 would be 3000+13344(from may2009 till May2010)+New applications from July to September 2014+2014 porting.

There are fair chances that dates would progress starting October 2015 and clear out the backlog if we get atleast 15000(spill over plus regular quota) in FY2015.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vuJfcbJiRj_vsMqA8i_5yXV03_N98CIr0Gg7cdIVbCc/edit?pli=1#gid=1073280392

[anasha1721]

is there a chance to get an approval this year? PD is December 2008. Got an RFE on june 5 and the RFERR date is Jul 25. Also used AC21 as I changed employer this year in march and am working on H1b visa. Not sure if these things delay the approval. The case is in Initial review status for me and my dependents. Really getting anxious about this with a prospect of waiting for one more year or more.

[anasha1721]

is there a chance to get an approval this year? PD is December 2008. Got an RFE on june 5 and the RFERR date is Jul 25. Also used AC21 as I changed employer this year in march and am working on H1b visa. Not sure if these things delay the approval. The case is in Initial review status for me and my dependents. Really getting anxious about this with a prospect of waiting for one more year or more.

[vizcard]

is there a chance to get an approval this year? PD is December 2008. Got an RFE on june 5 and the RFERR date is Jul 25. Also used AC21 as I changed employer this year in march and am working on H1b visa. Not sure if these things delay the approval. The case is in Initial review status for me and my dependents. Really getting anxious about this with a prospect of waiting for one more year or more.

Im fairly sure you will get approved but that is an awfully long time to respond to the RFE. Open a SR online and hope for the best.

[vizcard]

is there a chance to get an approval this year? PD is December 2008. Got an RFE on june 5 and the RFERR date is Jul 25. Also used AC21 as I changed employer this year in march and am working on H1b visa. Not sure if these things delay the approval. The case is in Initial review status for me and my dependents. Really getting anxious about this with a prospect of waiting for one more year or more.

Im fairly sure you will get approved but that is an awfully long time to respond to the RFE. Open a SR online and hope for the best.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

So, I hear a lot of people saying that dates are going to retrogress in November. Does this mean retrogression is effective Nov 1, 2014 or the Nov bulletin will announce that retrogression shall start on dec 1, 2014.

I'm a first-time end august, 2008 filer, if anybody is wondering why this question :rolleyes:

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

So, I hear a lot of people saying that dates are going to retrogress in November. Does this mean retrogression is effective Nov 1, 2014 or the Nov bulletin will announce that retrogression shall start on dec 1, 2014.

I'm a first-time end august, 2008 filer, if anybody is wondering why this question :rolleyes:

[qesehmk]

So, I hear a lot of people saying that dates are going to retrogress in November. Does this mean retrogression is effective Nov 1, 2014 or the Nov bulletin will announce that retrogression shall start on dec 1, 2014.

I'm a first-time end august, 2008 filer, if anybody is wondering why this question :rolleyes:

It is more likely that dates will retro in Dec .. not November. The reason is .. Nov bulletin comes in first week of Oct. There is virtually no data available in first week of Oct for CO to make a decision. Thus he can only make a decision and publish as part of Dec bulletin.

Aug 2008 and if you are not approved ... you need to start making noise and explore why.

[qesehmk]

So, I hear a lot of people saying that dates are going to retrogress in November. Does this mean retrogression is effective Nov 1, 2014 or the Nov bulletin will announce that retrogression shall start on dec 1, 2014.

I'm a first-time end august, 2008 filer, if anybody is wondering why this question :rolleyes:

It is more likely that dates will retro in Dec .. not November. The reason is .. Nov bulletin comes in first week of Oct. There is virtually no data available in first week of Oct for CO to make a decision. Thus he can only make a decision and publish as part of Dec bulletin.

Aug 2008 and if you are not approved ... you need to start making noise and explore why.

[Seeking_GC_Since_Jun_2008]

It is more likely that dates will retro in Dec .. not November. The reason is .. Nov bulletin comes in first week of Oct. There is virtually no data available in first week of Oct for CO to make a decision. Thus he can only make a decision and publish as part of Dec bulletin.

Aug 2008 and if you are not approved ... you need to start making noise and explore why.

Hi Q,

Other than opening a SR what steps are recommended? Is there a posting/thread that explains these steps?

My PD is Jun 30 2008 and it says RFE RR since June 30 2014, I waited for 60 days and opened a SR this week, Is there anything else I can do?

[Seeking_GC_Since_Jun_2008]

It is more likely that dates will retro in Dec .. not November. The reason is .. Nov bulletin comes in first week of Oct. There is virtually no data available in first week of Oct for CO to make a decision. Thus he can only make a decision and publish as part of Dec bulletin.

Aug 2008 and if you are not approved ... you need to start making noise and explore why.

Hi Q,

Other than opening a SR what steps are recommended? Is there a posting/thread that explains these steps?

My PD is Jun 30 2008 and it says RFE RR since June 30 2014, I waited for 60 days and opened a SR this week, Is there anything else I can do?

[Jagan01]

It is more likely that dates will retro in Dec .. not November. The reason is .. Nov bulletin comes in first week of Oct. There is virtually no data available in first week of Oct for CO to make a decision. Thus he can only make a decision and publish as part of Dec bulletin.
Internal retrogression may happen anytime in Nov. That happened last year.


Aug 2008 and if you are not approved ... you need to start making noise and explore why.

I think he is a first time filer and I think none of the first-time filer have gotten GC / EAD until now.

[Jagan01]

It is more likely that dates will retro in Dec .. not November. The reason is .. Nov bulletin comes in first week of Oct. There is virtually no data available in first week of Oct for CO to make a decision. Thus he can only make a decision and publish as part of Dec bulletin.
Internal retrogression may happen anytime in Nov. That happened last year.


Aug 2008 and if you are not approved ... you need to start making noise and explore why.

I think he is a first time filer and I think none of the first-time filer have gotten GC / EAD until now.

[Spectator]

It is more likely that dates will retro in Dec .. not November. The reason is .. Nov bulletin comes in first week of Oct. There is virtually no data available in first week of Oct for CO to make a decision. Thus he can only make a decision and publish as part of Dec bulletin.

Aug 2008 and if you are not approved ... you need to start making noise and explore why.Q,

It is true that when CO sets the November VB he won't have a great deal of information on actual approvals in October.

I do think he will have sufficient information to retrogress the COD, if he feels that will be necessary.

a) He knows USCIS can approve 5-6k EB2-I cases in a month.

b) He will know, from the Demand Data, how many cases were left unapproved from FY2014.

c) He will know, with reasonable certainty, how many spare FB visas are available to EB in FY2015.

With that information, CO will be able to set a figure for the number of visa numbers he can make available to EB2-I at the beginning of the FY.

To me, that is sufficient information to decide whether to retrogress in the November VB or not.

If the November VB does not retrogress, it is probably a sign that a reasonable number of FB visas are available to EB in FY2015.

[Spectator]

It is more likely that dates will retro in Dec .. not November. The reason is .. Nov bulletin comes in first week of Oct. There is virtually no data available in first week of Oct for CO to make a decision. Thus he can only make a decision and publish as part of Dec bulletin.

Aug 2008 and if you are not approved ... you need to start making noise and explore why.Q,

It is true that when CO sets the November VB he won't have a great deal of information on actual approvals in October.

I do think he will have sufficient information to retrogress the COD, if he feels that will be necessary.

a) He knows USCIS can approve 5-6k EB2-I cases in a month.

b) He will know, from the Demand Data, how many cases were left unapproved from FY2014.

c) He will know, with reasonable certainty, how many spare FB visas are available to EB in FY2015.

With that information, CO will be able to set a figure for the number of visa numbers he can make available to EB2-I at the beginning of the FY.

To me, that is sufficient information to decide whether to retrogress in the November VB or not.

If the November VB does not retrogress, it is probably a sign that a reasonable number of FB visas are available to EB in FY2015.

[qesehmk]

Hi Q,

Other than opening a SR what steps are recommended? Is there a posting/thread that explains these steps?

My PD is Jun 30 2008 and it says RFE RR since June 30 2014, I waited for 60 days and opened a SR this week, Is there anything else I can do?

Yesterday only somebody posted very nice steps. Search in 485 discussion forum. Basically he recommended 4 steps.

[qesehmk]

Hi Q,

Other than opening a SR what steps are recommended? Is there a posting/thread that explains these steps?

My PD is Jun 30 2008 and it says RFE RR since June 30 2014, I waited for 60 days and opened a SR this week, Is there anything else I can do?

Yesterday only somebody posted very nice steps. Search in 485 discussion forum. Basically he recommended 4 steps.

[qesehmk]

Thanks. i missed he having filed only recently.

As per internal retro .. first of all there is no such thing. But I think I know what you are saying. They will stop allocating visas when they run out of visas. It is as simple as that.

But if dates are current people can still continue to file 485s. So what you call IR is not what we were discussing. We were discussing VB dates being retro'd in Nov vs Dec.

Internal retrogression may happen anytime in Nov. That happened last year.



I think he is a first time filer and I think none of the first-time filer have gotten GC / EAD until now.


Q,

It is true that when CO sets the November VB he won't have a great deal of information on actual approvals in October.

I do think he will have sufficient information to retrogress the COD, if he feels that will be necessary.

a) He knows USCIS can approve 5-6k EB2-I cases in a month.

b) He will know, from the Demand Data, how many cases were left unapproved from FY2014.

c) He will know, with reasonable certainty, how many spare FB visas are available to EB in FY2015.

With that information, CO will be able to set a figure for the number of visa numbers he can make available to EB2-I at the beginning of the FY.

To me, that is sufficient information to decide whether to retrogress in the November VB or not.

If the November VB does not retrogress, it is probably a sign that a reasonable number of FB visas are available to EB in FY2015.

Spec thanks. To retro he doesn't need a great deal of accurate information. He can easily retro in Oct bulletin itself. But the fact he waits even one month tells me that he might as well wait for two because that 1 month doesn't really add more value. Also I think just because dates are current doesn't mean DOS is obligated to release visas. Absolutely not. They can keep dates current and yet continue to allocate as per their framework.

[qesehmk]

Thanks. i missed he having filed only recently.

As per internal retro .. first of all there is no such thing. But I think I know what you are saying. They will stop allocating visas when they run out of visas. It is as simple as that.

But if dates are current people can still continue to file 485s. So what you call IR is not what we were discussing. We were discussing VB dates being retro'd in Nov vs Dec.

Internal retrogression may happen anytime in Nov. That happened last year.



I think he is a first time filer and I think none of the first-time filer have gotten GC / EAD until now.


Q,

It is true that when CO sets the November VB he won't have a great deal of information on actual approvals in October.

I do think he will have sufficient information to retrogress the COD, if he feels that will be necessary.

a) He knows USCIS can approve 5-6k EB2-I cases in a month.

b) He will know, from the Demand Data, how many cases were left unapproved from FY2014.

c) He will know, with reasonable certainty, how many spare FB visas are available to EB in FY2015.

With that information, CO will be able to set a figure for the number of visa numbers he can make available to EB2-I at the beginning of the FY.

To me, that is sufficient information to decide whether to retrogress in the November VB or not.

If the November VB does not retrogress, it is probably a sign that a reasonable number of FB visas are available to EB in FY2015.

Spec thanks. To retro he doesn't need a great deal of accurate information. He can easily retro in Oct bulletin itself. But the fact he waits even one month tells me that he might as well wait for two because that 1 month doesn't really add more value. Also I think just because dates are current doesn't mean DOS is obligated to release visas. Absolutely not. They can keep dates current and yet continue to allocate as per their framework.

[Seeking_GC_Since_Jun_2008]

Yesterday only somebody posted very nice steps. Search in 485 discussion forum. Basically he recommended 4 steps.

Thanks Q, found it!

[Seeking_GC_Since_Jun_2008]

Yesterday only somebody posted very nice steps. Search in 485 discussion forum. Basically he recommended 4 steps.

Thanks Q, found it!

[venkat]

Can you please send me the link?

I'm June 2008 with no signs of approval. Opened SR and contacted Congressman, planning to follow-up with them on Monday

Its really disappointing - First it was TSC who hardly approved any cases in July, then when they finally started approving in August it was all random and now in September there are busy approving 2009 cases.





Thanks Q, found it!

[venkat]

Can you please send me the link?

I'm June 2008 with no signs of approval. Opened SR and contacted Congressman, planning to follow-up with them on Monday

Its really disappointing - First it was TSC who hardly approved any cases in July, then when they finally started approving in August it was all random and now in September there are busy approving 2009 cases.





Thanks Q, found it!

[Seeking_GC_Since_Jun_2008]

Can you please send me the link?

I'm June 2008 with no signs of approval. Opened SR and contacted Congressman, planning to follow-up with them on Monday

Its really disappointing - First it was TSC who hardly approved any cases in July, then when they finally started approving in August it was all random and now in September there are busy approving 2009 cases.


I hear you man....I'm in the same boat as you June 2008 PD with TSC :confused:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2473-Sources-to-Get-Help-With-Your-Case

[Seeking_GC_Since_Jun_2008]

Can you please send me the link?

I'm June 2008 with no signs of approval. Opened SR and contacted Congressman, planning to follow-up with them on Monday

Its really disappointing - First it was TSC who hardly approved any cases in July, then when they finally started approving in August it was all random and now in September there are busy approving 2009 cases.


I hear you man....I'm in the same boat as you June 2008 PD with TSC :confused:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2473-Sources-to-Get-Help-With-Your-Case

[Jagan01]

Thanks. i missed he having filed only recently.

As per internal retro .. first of all there is no such thing. But I think I know what you are saying. They will stop allocating visas when they run out of visas. It is as simple as that.

But if dates are current people can still continue to file 485s. So what you call IR is not what we were discussing. We were discussing VB dates being retro'd in Nov vs Dec.

Q,

I understand that the discussion is about the visa bulletin. But I was just trying to point out to " IsItWorthTheTrouble" that dates begin current for Nov bulletin does not mean that visas will continue to be allocated until Nov 30, 2014. They can internally stop allocating visas on any date between Nov 1 - Nov 30.

Since the original post was from someone who is a first time filer, he is trying to find out whether he gets GC or not and thus I thought its important to highlight the fact it depends on when they internally stop allocating visas.

[Jagan01]

Thanks. i missed he having filed only recently.

As per internal retro .. first of all there is no such thing. But I think I know what you are saying. They will stop allocating visas when they run out of visas. It is as simple as that.

But if dates are current people can still continue to file 485s. So what you call IR is not what we were discussing. We were discussing VB dates being retro'd in Nov vs Dec.

Q,

I understand that the discussion is about the visa bulletin. But I was just trying to point out to " IsItWorthTheTrouble" that dates begin current for Nov bulletin does not mean that visas will continue to be allocated until Nov 30, 2014. They can internally stop allocating visas on any date between Nov 1 - Nov 30.

Since the original post was from someone who is a first time filer, he is trying to find out whether he gets GC or not and thus I thought its important to highlight the fact it depends on when they internally stop allocating visas.

[qesehmk]

Q,

I understand that the discussion is about the visa bulletin. But I was just trying to point out to " IsItWorthTheTrouble" that dates begin current for Nov bulletin does not mean that visas will continue to be allocated until Nov 30, 2014. They can internally stop allocating visas on any date between Nov 1 - Nov 30.

Since the original post was from someone who is a first time filer, he is trying to find out whether he gets GC or not and thus I thought its important to highlight the fact it depends on when they internally stop allocating visas.
Thank Jagan. You are right.

[qesehmk]

Q,

I understand that the discussion is about the visa bulletin. But I was just trying to point out to " IsItWorthTheTrouble" that dates begin current for Nov bulletin does not mean that visas will continue to be allocated until Nov 30, 2014. They can internally stop allocating visas on any date between Nov 1 - Nov 30.

Since the original post was from someone who is a first time filer, he is trying to find out whether he gets GC or not and thus I thought its important to highlight the fact it depends on when they internally stop allocating visas.
Thank Jagan. You are right.

[venkat]

I think sometime next week i've to go ahead with the below option:

Seek assistance of Ombudsman: http://www.dhs.gov/case-assistance After speaking to NCSC L2 I was so mad that I wanted to kill someone but that would make me a permanent resident of a different kind. So I submitted a DHS 7001 Request with on 9/2/2014.



I hear you man....I'm in the same boat as you June 2008 PD with TSC :confused:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2473-Sources-to-Get-Help-With-Your-Case

[venkat]

I think sometime next week i've to go ahead with the below option:

Seek assistance of Ombudsman: http://www.dhs.gov/case-assistance After speaking to NCSC L2 I was so mad that I wanted to kill someone but that would make me a permanent resident of a different kind. So I submitted a DHS 7001 Request with on 9/2/2014.



I hear you man....I'm in the same boat as you June 2008 PD with TSC :confused:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2473-Sources-to-Get-Help-With-Your-Case

[vik123]

DOL Perm process target for 2015 : 250-350 days, 2014 target was 150-225 days.

http://immigration-law.com/


DOL Stategic Plans and Performance Goals FY 2014-2018 and Foreign Labor Certification Programs

DOL developed its 5-year strategic plan and performance goals for various programs for the Department. For the Office of Foreign Labor Certifications, because of the uncertainity of the comprehensive immigration reform activities at the legislative level and administrative level, it could only determine the goals for performance goals for PERM program for two years (2014 and 2015).

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
H-1B (7 days) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
H-2A (30 days) 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
H-2B (30 days) 85% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
PERM (Audit Track) 305-450 days 475-600 days ? ? ?
PERM (Non-Audit Track) 150-225 days 250-350 days ? ? ?
Employers should be prepared to deal with anticipated further delays in processing of PERM applications in FY 2015 which starts from October 2014. We were hoping that the processing times for PERM would be improved in the near future, but the DOL had set the target much lower for the FY 2015 for whatever reasons. For the foreign labor certification program in this five-year strategic plan, please visit pp. 54-56.

[vik123]

DOL Perm process target for 2015 : 250-350 days, 2014 target was 150-225 days.

http://immigration-law.com/


DOL Stategic Plans and Performance Goals FY 2014-2018 and Foreign Labor Certification Programs

DOL developed its 5-year strategic plan and performance goals for various programs for the Department. For the Office of Foreign Labor Certifications, because of the uncertainity of the comprehensive immigration reform activities at the legislative level and administrative level, it could only determine the goals for performance goals for PERM program for two years (2014 and 2015).

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
H-1B (7 days) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
H-2A (30 days) 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
H-2B (30 days) 85% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
PERM (Audit Track) 305-450 days 475-600 days ? ? ?
PERM (Non-Audit Track) 150-225 days 250-350 days ? ? ?
Employers should be prepared to deal with anticipated further delays in processing of PERM applications in FY 2015 which starts from October 2014. We were hoping that the processing times for PERM would be improved in the near future, but the DOL had set the target much lower for the FY 2015 for whatever reasons. For the foreign labor certification program in this five-year strategic plan, please visit pp. 54-56.

[CleanSock]

Does this mean we have a chance of good spillover next year?



DOL Perm process target for 2015 : 250-350 days, 2014 target was 150-225 days.

http://immigration-law.com/


DOL Stategic Plans and Performance Goals FY 2014-2018 and Foreign Labor Certification Programs

DOL developed its 5-year strategic plan and performance goals for various programs for the Department. For the Office of Foreign Labor Certifications, because of the uncertainity of the comprehensive immigration reform activities at the legislative level and administrative level, it could only determine the goals for performance goals for PERM program for two years (2014 and 2015).

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
H-1B (7 days) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
H-2A (30 days) 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
H-2B (30 days) 85% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
PERM (Audit Track) 305-450 days 475-600 days ? ? ?
PERM (Non-Audit Track) 150-225 days 250-350 days ? ? ?
Employers should be prepared to deal with anticipated further delays in processing of PERM applications in FY 2015 which starts from October 2014. We were hoping that the processing times for PERM would be improved in the near future, but the DOL had set the target much lower for the FY 2015 for whatever reasons. For the foreign labor certification program in this five-year strategic plan, please visit pp. 54-56.

[CleanSock]

Does this mean we have a chance of good spillover next year?



DOL Perm process target for 2015 : 250-350 days, 2014 target was 150-225 days.

http://immigration-law.com/


DOL Stategic Plans and Performance Goals FY 2014-2018 and Foreign Labor Certification Programs

DOL developed its 5-year strategic plan and performance goals for various programs for the Department. For the Office of Foreign Labor Certifications, because of the uncertainity of the comprehensive immigration reform activities at the legislative level and administrative level, it could only determine the goals for performance goals for PERM program for two years (2014 and 2015).

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
H-1B (7 days) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
H-2A (30 days) 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
H-2B (30 days) 85% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
PERM (Audit Track) 305-450 days 475-600 days ? ? ?
PERM (Non-Audit Track) 150-225 days 250-350 days ? ? ?
Employers should be prepared to deal with anticipated further delays in processing of PERM applications in FY 2015 which starts from October 2014. We were hoping that the processing times for PERM would be improved in the near future, but the DOL had set the target much lower for the FY 2015 for whatever reasons. For the foreign labor certification program in this five-year strategic plan, please visit pp. 54-56.

[Seeking_GC_Since_Jun_2008]

I think sometime next week i've to go ahead with the below option:

Seek assistance of Ombudsman: http://www.dhs.gov/case-assistance After speaking to NCSC L2 I was so mad that I wanted to kill someone but that would make me a permanent resident of a different kind. So I submitted a DHS 7001 Request with on 9/2/2014.

Yes, I was thinking of the same next week...Good Luck and keep me posted..Check you PM by the way!

[Seeking_GC_Since_Jun_2008]

I think sometime next week i've to go ahead with the below option:

Seek assistance of Ombudsman: http://www.dhs.gov/case-assistance After speaking to NCSC L2 I was so mad that I wanted to kill someone but that would make me a permanent resident of a different kind. So I submitted a DHS 7001 Request with on 9/2/2014.

Yes, I was thinking of the same next week...Good Luck and keep me posted..Check you PM by the way!

[vizcard]

Does this mean we have a chance of good spillover next year?

Definitely improves the chances.

[vizcard]

Does this mean we have a chance of good spillover next year?

Definitely improves the chances.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Thanks Q, found it!

Can you pls post/pm me the link? Thanks, Seeking.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Thanks Q, found it!

Can you pls post/pm me the link? Thanks, Seeking.

[qesehmk]

We have cleaned up this thread and archived all old posts. Those archives of old EB2-3 Calculations can be found HERE (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/68-Archives)

We can use this thread for 2015 predictions. All gurus are welcome to update their posts at the top of this thread whenever they wish. I will update my initial take within a week.We will archive Sep posts at the end of this month. We have preserved the threat so that people don't have to change their bookmarks! It was a lot of work ... but finally I am done with it.

[nbk1976]

@Imdeng: Are you a university faculty member? If so, try to get an adjunct professor position and this should suffice for AC21. You don't need to have an "indefinite" job, but you need to show a pattern or history of moving from job to job in the same job classification with little or no gaps. Many community colleges have adjunct requirements every semester. Of course, the pay will be much lower as an adjunct, but for the purposes of AC21, the main requirement is the job should be near identical, and you should be able to support yourself without need of government assistance.

[suninphx]

We have cleaned up this thread and archived all old posts. Those archives of old EB2-3 Calculations can be found HERE (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/68-Archives)

We can use this thread for 2015 predictions. All gurus are welcome to update their posts at the top of this thread whenever they wish. I will update my initial take within a week.We will archive Sep posts at the end of this month. We have preserved the threat so that people don't have to change their bookmarks! It was a lot of work ... but finally I am done with it.

Thanks Q !

[imdeng]

Excellent timing Q. It is time for us to move on to FY2015 details. It is going to be an interesting one - especially from EB3 POV.

We have cleaned up this thread and archived all old posts. Those archives of old EB2-3 Calculations can be found HERE (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/68-Archives)

We can use this thread for 2015 predictions. All gurus are welcome to update their posts at the top of this thread whenever they wish. I will update my initial take within a week.We will archive Sep posts at the end of this month. We have preserved the threat so that people don't have to change their bookmarks! It was a lot of work ... but finally I am done with it.

[imdeng]

Thanks nbk. Seems like I will be able to land another tenure track position - so it should work out okay.

@Imdeng: Are you a university faculty member? If so, try to get an adjunct professor position and this should suffice for AC21. You don't need to have an "indefinite" job, but you need to show a pattern or history of moving from job to job in the same job classification with little or no gaps. Many community colleges have adjunct requirements every semester. Of course, the pay will be much lower as an adjunct, but for the purposes of AC21, the main requirement is the job should be near identical, and you should be able to support yourself without need of government assistance.

[iatiam]

Any idea when the VB will be out? What's been the precedent.

[reachme_s]

Any idea when the VB will be out? What's been the precedent.


It's usually the 9th of every month..

[imdeng]

This week sometime. Its usually later in the week than earlier - but its already 8th today - so shouldn't be too many days now.

Any idea when the VB will be out? What's been the precedent.

[sanjeevsinha05]

Hi,

Can someone help me to understand the process of I140 Concurrent filing. I am expecting my labor in EB2 Category (PD: April 2014) to be approved in a couple of weeks. I do have an earlier PD (Dec 2008) from my EB3 filing.

Considering my date is current (EB3 PD), can you please let me know, if I can concurrently file my new I140 & I485 together, or first I have first file my new I140 and get it approved and port the EB3 PD, and then only I can file my I485?

Thanks in advance...

[jimmys]

Hi,

Can someone help me to understand the process of I140 Concurrent filing. I am expecting my labor in EB2 Category (PD: April 2014) to be approved in a couple of weeks. I do have an earlier PD (Dec 2008) from my EB3 filing.

Considering my date is current (EB3 PD), can you please let me know, if I can concurrently file my new I140 & I485 together, or first I have first file my new I140 and get it approved and port the EB3 PD, and then only I can file my I485?

Thanks in advance...

You can file concurrently and give a letter to USCIS to port your date from previously approved I-140. If I were you I will file it concurrently as the dates may retrogress anytime in the next couple of months.

Filing I-140 first then I-485 is considered safe approach by a few lawyers. But you may miss your opportunity to file I-485 when I-140 is approved.

[vckomara]

All: I am on EAD and my PD is Sept 2009. Based on your predictions., I won't get Greened at least until end of 2015 which is long period to wait to switch jobs for me. Is it possible to indefinitely continue on EAD without taking Green card even when there is an opportunity to do as The job I take up may or may not qualify for AC21

[Kanmani]

All: I am on EAD and my PD is Sept 2009. Based on your predictions., I won't get Greened at least until end of 2015 which is long period to wait to switch jobs for me. Is it possible to indefinitely continue on EAD without taking Green card even when there is an opportunity to do as The job I take up may or may not qualify for AC21

No. You cannot. EAD is a interim relief with its validity rely purely on the pending I-485.

Can you ask the USCIS to put your I-485 application pending for ever? I don't think so.

[imdeng]

You can not stay on EAD forever - whenever you become current, your case will be approved or denied - there is no third option. With the decision the role of EAD is over. However, are you sure that your job change will not meet AC21 requirements? They are pretty broad and I have not come across any case of 485 being rejected because of AC21 requirements not being met.

All: I am on EAD and my PD is Sept 2009. Based on your predictions., I won't get Greened at least until end of 2015 which is long period to wait to switch jobs for me. Is it possible to indefinitely continue on EAD without taking Green card even when there is an opportunity to do as The job I take up may or may not qualify for AC21

[vizcard]

All: I am on EAD and my PD is Sept 2009. Based on your predictions., I won't get Greened at least until end of 2015 which is long period to wait to switch jobs for me. Is it possible to indefinitely continue on EAD without taking Green card even when there is an opportunity to do as The job I take up may or may not qualify for AC21

You have 2 options -
1) try to see if you can word the new job description to be similar to the old job to qualify for AC21. As imdeng mentioned there's quite a wide latitude for what qualifies. Unless u are doing something drastic like nuclear scientist to programmer you should be able to get away with it. If you feel comfortable, list out the high level job descriptions on this forum and perhaps members could opine.

2) restart your GC process and port your old pd. You should get perm approval in 9-12 months and can concurrently file 140/485. I would only recommend this if you really want the other job and are willing to potentially wait another year to get approved.

[PD2008AUG25]

OCt bulletin out: Eb2I same.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-october-2014.html

[NewHope]

Hi Spec, Q,Kanmani, Viz & others
I need your valuable advice from you guys on the following issue, Posting it here as it most active thread, Moderator's Please feel free to the appropriate thread

I need this information for my friend who had to abandon her GC due to some unavoidable circumstances,
Her GC will expire in 3/15 and last port of entry year is 2008, now her Indian company wants her to go to US for 2 weeks to care of some office work, they are asking her to surrender her GC so that they can apply for B1 visa. she is not willing to surrender her GC,
Is she eligible for re-entry permit and will it get approved ?
Her company is saying that the re-entry permit will be denied for sure and cost associated for re-entry permit is HIGH.
Is there a way she is reinstate her Green Card with out applying for B1 visa?

I really appreciate your help and thank you very much for your advise in advance.

[CleanSock]

Bulletin update so early in the morning? Interesting. All the gurus in the forum were predicting that EB2I is going to stay put and that's what happened. Dates are definitely going to retrogress next month as CO mentioned it specifically in the bulletin.

"INDIA Employment-based Second Preference: Increased demand will require the retrogression of this cut-off date, possibly in November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit."


OCt bulletin out: Eb2I same.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-october-2014.html

[EB2IndSep09]

Now it is evident that the dates would retrogress. Any calculated guess from gurus when they would move forward again?

[zenmaster]

Awesome...
Need to hibernate back until Q4 2015 now :)

[vizcard]

Now it is evident that the dates would retrogress. Any calculated guess from gurus when they would move forward again?

July or Aug 2015

[vizcard]

Hi Spec, Q,Kanmani, Viz & others
I need your valuable advice from you guys on the following issue, Posting it here as it most active thread, Moderator's Please feel free to the appropriate thread

I need this information for my friend who had to abandon her GC due to some unavoidable circumstances,
Her GC will expire in 3/15 and last port of entry year is 2008, now her Indian company wants her to go to US for 2 weeks to care of some office work, they are asking her to surrender her GC so that they can apply for B1 visa. she is not willing to surrender her GC,
Is she eligible for re-entry permit and will it get approved ?
Her company is saying that the re-entry permit will be denied for sure and cost associated for re-entry permit is HIGH.
Is there a way she is reinstate her Green Card with out applying for B1 visa?

I really appreciate your help and thank you very much for your advise in advance.

A re-entry permit would not be applicable in this case as you need to apply for that BEFORE the trip. I'm not sure if there's any option other than giving up the GC and going on a B1. In any case, why is she holding on to the GC for 6 months when she hasn't been to the US in 6 years?

Also, there is no way to "reinstate" a GC without going through the whole process again as the basis for the green card is no longer valid.

[moon80]

Good chance that it will move in Dec 2014/Jan 2015

[Kanmani]

Hi Spec, Q,Kanmani, Viz & others
I need your valuable advice from you guys on the following issue, Posting it here as it most active thread, Moderator's Please feel free to the appropriate thread

I need this information for my friend who had to abandon her GC due to some unavoidable circumstances,
Her GC will expire in 3/15 and last port of entry year is 2008, now her Indian company wants her to go to US for 2 weeks to care of some office work, they are asking her to surrender her GC so that they can apply for B1 visa. she is not willing to surrender her GC,
Is she eligible for re-entry permit and will it get approved ?
Her company is saying that the re-entry permit will be denied for sure and cost associated for re-entry permit is HIGH.
Is there a way she is reinstate her Green Card with out applying for B1 visa?

I really appreciate your help and thank you very much for your advise in advance.

Newhope,

She is not eligible for re-entry permit, as it must be obtained before leaving the US (just like AP). There is an option to reinstate the abandoned GC using Returning Resident Visa.

The USCIS link is here ... http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/immigrate/types/returning-residents.html

I don't think your friend will be qualified for that, because when you try to re-instate the GC, you must have ties to this country to continue as a PR.

In my opinion, giving life to the abandoned GC solely for the purpose of 2 weeks visit is impossible.

[Kanmani]

You can not stay on EAD forever - whenever you become current, your case will be approved or denied - there is no third option. With the decision the role of EAD is over. However, are you sure that your job change will not meet AC21 requirements? They are pretty broad and I have not come across any case of 485 being rejected because of AC21 requirements not being met.

imdeng,

There are numerous denial cases on account of AC21 requirements. Trust my word, simply because it takes hours for me to show you the evidence:)

I can compare those denials to that of fishing the speeding car on a free-way. You may not know who will be pulled aside.

Just like Zen, I would also prefer to go on hibernation!

[vizcard]

Good chance that it will move in Dec 2014/Jan 2015

if you are referring to the EB2I priority date, then I'm afraid there is NO chance of it moving in Dec 2014/Jan 2015. The caveat would be if Obama does something (recapture or elimination of dependents from cap).

[vik123]

Gurus,

Just wondering, Can they use 2014 year Spillover after Sep 2014? If not, Will they use FY 2015 visa quota in October 2014 approval?

[vckomara]

You have 2 options -
1) try to see if you can word the new job description to be similar to the old job to qualify for AC21. As imdeng mentioned there's quite a wide latitude for what qualifies. Unless u are doing something drastic like nuclear scientist to programmer you should be able to get away with it. If you feel comfortable, list out the high level job descriptions on this forum and perhaps members could opine.

2) restart your GC process and port your old pd. You should get perm approval in 9-12 months and can concurrently file 140/485. I would only recommend this if you really want the other job and are willing to potentially wait another year to get approved.

Unfortunately, that is my case. I am in a scientist role with programming constituting 20% of my job. I have to move to full time programming job. Dont know how big a deal that would be under AC 21. Thanks for all who responded though.

[iatiam]

So I guess that's all for this year then. The wait continues for the next year. I wasn't expecting a miracle, so whatever has happened has happened for good.

[vckomara]

Unfortunately, that is my case. I am in a scientist role with programming constituting 20% of my job. I have to move to full time programming job. Dont know how big a deal that would be under AC 21. Thanks for all who responded though.
Also here are some high level job functions used for EB-2 application which I overlooked in your response and it doesnt look as bad as I thought but still not a programming job.

1. Research and Develop Novel methods for **** (science related)
2. Independently demonstrate and develop new techniques
3. Implement application software using C#/C++

[imdeng]

Kanmani - I absolutely trust your word :-)

imdeng,

There are numerous denial cases on account of AC21 requirements. Trust my word, simply because it takes hours for me to show you the evidence:)

I can compare those denials to that of fishing the speeding car on a free-way. You may not know who will be pulled aside.

Just like Zen, I would also prefer to go on hibernation!

[vizcard]

Gurus,

Just wondering, Can they use 2014 year Spillover after Sep 2014? If not, Will they use FY 2015 visa quota in October 2014 approval?

The answers to your questions - No and Yes

[vik123]

The answers to your questions - No and Yes
Thanks vizcard.

[kumar777]

Hi Gurus,

Before we go on hibernation till Q4' 15, could some body tell me how many pending applications ( rough estimate ) are existing between may'09 till end of 09?
Thanks Gurus..

[bikenlalan]

There are about 8500 pending applications between May-Dec 09 as per the July inventory + expect approx 1500 pending until May 2009 which will not be cleared this FY, + (1000-1500) straight EB2 and porters who will file until the dates stay put until the next bulletin. So total of 11000 until Dec 09.

Gurus please correct me if I am wrong.

[imdeng]

That is reasonable ball park. Number for porters may be a little higher and inventory overhang may be a touch more. ~13K feels about right.

There are about 8500 pending applications between May-Dec 09 as per the July inventory + expect approx 1500 pending until May 2009 which will not be cleared this FY, + (1000-1500) straight EB2 and porters who will file until the dates stay put until the next bulletin. So total of 11000 until Dec 09.

Gurus please correct me if I am wrong.

[helooo]

Hello Q,Spec and other Gurus,
When will the first time filer start getting approval?Will they pickup randomly or according to PD or Receipt Date?Very few have received EAD/AP so far.Is there any time frame?Any Hope!!

EB2I TSC | PD: 06/16/2008

[vizcard]

Hello Q,Spec and other Gurus,
When will the first time filer start getting approval?Will they pickup randomly or according to PD or Receipt Date?Very few have received EAD/AP so far.Is there any time frame?Any Hope!!

EB2I TSC | PD: 06/16/2008

First time filers approvals take approx 4 months for the GC. So I would assume a July filer would get approved in the Oct timeframe assuming there are numbers available. EAD/AP should be within 90 days and not dependent on dates being current or not.

[qesehmk]

helooo

All the cases that are current are processed by receipt date of 485 - oldest first.

So whenever you filed .. expect GC 4-5 months later.


Hello Q,Spec and other Gurus,
When will the first time filer start getting approval?Will they pickup randomly or according to PD or Receipt Date?Very few have received EAD/AP so far.Is there any time frame?Any Hope!!

EB2I TSC | PD: 06/16/2008

[moon80]

if you are referring to the EB2I priority date, then I'm afraid there is NO chance of it moving in Dec 2014/Jan 2015. The caveat would be if Obama does something (recapture or elimination of dependents from cap).

There is good chance that Mr. O might do something for legals Nov/Dec 2014 using his exec power. In that case dates will move.

[seattlet]

Sometimes it takes as little as 40 to 50 days to get 485 approved for first timers. (EAD and AP denied in such cases since 485 gets approved before EAD application is adjucated). Hence it might help to get fingerprinting done as soon as possible by opting to walk in once fingerprinting appt is received to speed up the case.

Generally when the dates retrogress there wont be any approvals from that month onwards, but last year we saw some approvals in December for EB2 I when the dates were not current. Further I dont think anyone is 100% sure how the spillover from last year is used for October / November 485 approvals for EB2 India. There were a ton of approvals for EB2 India in Oct / Nov last year which logically could have come only from EB2 India's 2014 quota or from family spillover but I dont have more info. I benefitted from it last year and I hope the same happens this year.

And the processing by receipt date is the rule, but adjucating 485 has many variables to it (depending on background check results, the adjucating officer, information in the application etc) and hence you might get 485 approved much ahead of folks who have RD before your's . this happens especially when first timers get approved in few weeks compared to the folks who have 485 pending for more than a year (due to retrogression) and
still dont get cleared before Nov.



helooo

All the cases that are current are processed by receipt date of 485 - oldest first.

So whenever you filed .. expect GC 4-5 months later.

[PD2008AUG25]

Mr. Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State, just announced in a meeting in which our office participated that due to extraordinarily high volume of EB-2 India cases, the Department of State will make the EB-2 India category unavailable until the end of the fiscal year (September 30, 2014) effective immediately as of today, September 10, 2014. It is important to note that this announcement does not affect the October 2014 Visa Bulletin, which has EB-2 India with a cutoff date of May 1, 2009 and which will be effective as of October 1, 2014

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/09/10/breaking-news-eb-2-india-unavailable-for-rest-of-september-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-coming-in-the-fall/

[Jagan01]

Mr. Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State, just announced in a meeting in which our office participated that due to extraordinarily high volume of EB-2 India cases, the Department of State will make the EB-2 India category unavailable until the end of the fiscal year (September 30, 2014) effective immediately as of today, September 10, 2014. It is important to note that this announcement does not affect the October 2014 Visa Bulletin, which has EB-2 India with a cutoff date of May 1, 2009 and which will be effective as of October 1, 2014

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/09/10/breaking-news-eb-2-india-unavailable-for-rest-of-september-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-coming-in-the-fall/

I am a little confused with the following paragraph:

No EB-2 India Filings for the Remainder of September
The fact that EB-2 India is unavailable for September also means that no new EB-2 India I-485 filings will be accepted during the rest of the month. This includes I-485 filings for dependents and I-485 interfiling requests (usually after I-140 porting applications). Cases that are filed are either likely to be held for processing on October 1st or will be returned to the applicant.

I thought that candidates can apply until they are current for the VB.

What happens to people who have not yet received EAD. Do we still get the EAD. I am done with finger printing but no sign of EAD yet.

[qesehmk]

Sometimes it takes as little as 40 to 50 days to get 485 approved for first timers.
That's possible seattlet. Certainly. I only quoted average time.

[Anish05]

Is it true?

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/09/10/break...

[jimmys]

Is it true?

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/09/10/break...

EB visas are expected to run out in Sep. It did last year as well.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Is it true?

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/09/10/break...

Yes, it seems to be true news. You won't see EB2I approvals for rest of September unless for those people for whom visa number has already been requested. When October starts, new FY will start with it and EB2I quota will open again so you can expect some lucky ones to get their green cards but then the PD will retrogress to 2005 till may be July, 2015 when it will move forward again depending on the spillover available next year.

I am not particularly concerned about the visas being unavailable till rest of the September because the FY is ending in 20 days anyways and it happened last year also. But I am more concerned about the future progress due to spillover concerns.The situation does not look very good overall especially with the announcement from Mr. CO that EB2I is likely to move forward extremely slowly in long term and applicants should prepare for longer waits. I think high use of EB1C and very high level of porting combined with high demand for EB2I itself is causing this and next year, EB2ROW demand will also pick up which can slow the progress even further.

Overall, it is not a good news and I think the new norm for EB2I is 6-8 years wait from PD with current level of visa allocation and quotas. In fact, if nothing changes then in next 3-4 years, EB3I will start receiving horizontal spillover as EB3ROW is advancing fast. If that happens, there won't be much difference left between EB2I and EB3I. Unless EB1C requirements are changed and made more stringent and EB3-EB2I porting is reduced, EB2I applicants are in for a long painful wait. The only caveat to this situation is if President issues an EO in December which includes some relief for legals or CIR passes in 2015 giving relief to legals. But I would not rely on them. The only other thing that can give EB2I more spillover is if somehow the PERM process slows down considerably and waiting times go up for every new filer to get LC approved.

My PD is in May, 2011 so I am only little more than 3 years from my filing but I am not hopeful at getting a GC before 2018. I can understand how painful it is for people who filed in 2008 and are still waiting.

As Q have said before, try to make a career move instead of waiting for GC eternally. I know that it is easier said than done but one should always try. I am really thinking of making a career move next year if there is no EO in December. I am getting tired of waiting and I don't want to sacrifice my career for green card. If needed, I will change my visa to J1 from H1B, abandon the GC process and take a J1 waiver job if I can advance in my career. Because till this point, I was letting the opportunities pass in wait for GC and I know that 4-5 years from now, I will regret it so I have decided that enough is enough and I will do something to advance my career instead of just waiting with frustration for my GC.

Not that, this may help anybody's cause and I don't want to sound preachy also, but just a friendly thought since I am also one of you.

Good luck to all waiting for GC.

[Fedup14]

I totally agree with you, same thing i'm also planning. My priority date is around May 2011. Only problem i see in switching is i have just 1 year left on my H1B. If i make switch, to get H1B extension beyond 6 years, i'm not sure how i can get PERM and 140 approval within a year, considering companies will not immediately start GC processing.

[jimmys]

//The only caveat to this situation is if President issues an EO in December which includes some relief for legals or CIR passes in 2015 giving relief to legals.//

It's very hard to believe President's EO will be of any help to legals. In my opinion the probability for that to happen is almost zip. There will be no CIR if GOP wins majority in both Senate and Congress which I believe is gonna happen in November.

[venkat]

I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year and after waiting 1 whole year again missed out...Any positives for me folks?

I hope to get over it soon. What was frustrating was to see lots of 2009 folks (nothing against them) getting their approval ahead of 2008 people who now end up waiting 1 more year.



Mr. Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State, just announced in a meeting in which our office participated that due to extraordinarily high volume of EB-2 India cases, the Department of State will make the EB-2 India category unavailable until the end of the fiscal year (September 30, 2014) effective immediately as of today, September 10, 2014. It is important to note that this announcement does not affect the October 2014 Visa Bulletin, which has EB-2 India with a cutoff date of May 1, 2009 and which will be effective as of October 1, 2014

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/09/10/breaking-news-eb-2-india-unavailable-for-rest-of-september-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-coming-in-the-fall/

[krookbond]

I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year and after waiting 1 whole year again missed out...Any positives for me folks?

I hope to get over it soon. What was frustrating was to see lots of 2009 folks (nothing against them) getting their approval ahead of 2008 people who now end up waiting 1 more year.
Same boat here, PD June 2008. Missed boat last year and no RFE at all this year. On second thought, life doesn't change much without GC. I am on EAD for last 2 years and no regrets.

[raj888]

EB visas are expected to run out in Sep. It did last year as well.

Yes it did last year too around sept 15 - 20th. However come Oct, there were lot of approvals in eb2 india including a lot of new filers. I am hoping it will repeat. Though one difference is last year, there were unused visas from family category.


Gurus, Is there any way to calculate or guess if there could be any unused visas from family this year?

[rajamp]

Its first time i am hearing that we cannot file for 485 even thou the date is current in september. Can USCIS reject the application?

Source: http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html

09/11/2014: Unconfirmed Sources Indicates EB-2 India FY-2014 Cap Exhausted Yesterday 09/10/2014

An unconfirmed sources indicate that at a seminar yesterday, Mr. Oppenheim of the DOS Visa Bureau disclosed that the FY 2014 India EB-2 cap reached as of 09/10/2014 and unless the cap numbers have been taken out before today by the USCIS and visa posts, the pending EB-485 applications whose visa number had become current in September 2014 Visa Bulletin could not be adjudicated until after the end of September 2014. Additionally, those EB-2 Indians who have yet to file new EB-485 applications based on the September 2014 Visa Bulletin will not be able to file it until October 1, 2014 or thereafter. It is not clear whether the USCIS and visa offices will reject and return such EB-2 Indian applications which are received after 09/10/2014, but we will have to wait for clarification from the USCIS on this point.
Please stay tuned for confirmation of this information.

[CleanSock]

Hey Jonty! I am April 2011. We are close!


Yes, it seems to be true news. You won't see EB2I approvals for rest of September unless for those people for whom visa number has already been requested. When October starts, new FY will start with it and EB2I quota will open again so you can expect some lucky ones to get their green cards but then the PD will retrogress to 2005 till may be July, 2015 when it will move forward again depending on the spillover available next year.

I am not particularly concerned about the visas being unavailable till rest of the September because the FY is ending in 20 days anyways and it happened last year also. But I am more concerned about the future progress due to spillover concerns.The situation does not look very good overall especially with the announcement from Mr. CO that EB2I is likely to move forward extremely slowly in long term and applicants should prepare for longer waits. I think high use of EB1C and very high level of porting combined with high demand for EB2I itself is causing this and next year, EB2ROW demand will also pick up which can slow the progress even further.

Overall, it is not a good news and I think the new norm for EB2I is 6-8 years wait from PD with current level of visa allocation and quotas. In fact, if nothing changes then in next 3-4 years, EB3I will start receiving horizontal spillover as EB3ROW is advancing fast. If that happens, there won't be much difference left between EB2I and EB3I. Unless EB1C requirements are changed and made more stringent and EB3-EB2I porting is reduced, EB2I applicants are in for a long painful wait. The only caveat to this situation is if President issues an EO in December which includes some relief for legals or CIR passes in 2015 giving relief to legals. But I would not rely on them. The only other thing that can give EB2I more spillover is if somehow the PERM process slows down considerably and waiting times go up for every new filer to get LC approved.

My PD is in May, 2011 so I am only little more than 3 years from my filing but I am not hopeful at getting a GC before 2018. I can understand how painful it is for people who filed in 2008 and are still waiting.

As Q have said before, try to make a career move instead of waiting for GC eternally. I know that it is easier said than done but one should always try. I am really thinking of making a career move next year if there is no EO in December. I am getting tired of waiting and I don't want to sacrifice my career for green card. If needed, I will change my visa to J1 from H1B, abandon the GC process and take a J1 waiver job if I can advance in my career. Because till this point, I was letting the opportunities pass in wait for GC and I know that 4-5 years from now, I will regret it so I have decided that enough is enough and I will do something to advance my career instead of just waiting with frustration for my GC.

Not that, this may help anybody's cause and I don't want to sound preachy also, but just a friendly thought since I am also one of you.

Good luck to all waiting for GC.

[vizcard]

I am a little confused with the following paragraph:

No EB-2 India Filings for the Remainder of September
The fact that EB-2 India is unavailable for September also means that no new EB-2 India I-485 filings will be accepted during the rest of the month. This includes I-485 filings for dependents and I-485 interfiling requests (usually after I-140 porting applications). Cases that are filed are either likely to be held for processing on October 1st or will be returned to the applicant.

I thought that candidates can apply until they are current for the VB.

What happens to people who have not yet received EAD. Do we still get the EAD. I am done with finger printing but no sign of EAD yet.

Yes. They can apply. It just indicates that they won't be processed until October. That may mean (but not definitely) one has to re-file if the application is returned.

You will get the EAD. Only the initial application is tied to the 485. After that they follow different paths. Also, the fingerprinting is for the 485 and not EAD.

Bottom line is those you have applied have to wait atleast till Oct to be processed and those who haven't filed (but are current) need to wait till oct to file.

[Seeking_GC_Since_Jun_2008]

Oh man....same here June PD 2008 missed it last year by 15 days!

I year wait again!!!:mad: I thought "Acche Din Aa Gaye Hain"!




I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year and after waiting 1 whole year again missed out...Any positives for me folks?

I hope to get over it soon. What was frustrating was to see lots of 2009 folks (nothing against them) getting their approval ahead of 2008 people who now end up waiting 1 more year.

[qesehmk]

Its first time i am hearing that we cannot file for 485 even thou the date is current in september. Can USCIS reject the application?

Source: http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html

09/11/2014: Unconfirmed Sources Indicates EB-2 India FY-2014 Cap Exhausted Yesterday 09/10/2014

An unconfirmed sources indicate that at a seminar yesterday, Mr. Oppenheim of the DOS Visa Bureau disclosed that the FY 2014 India EB-2 cap reached as of 09/10/2014 and unless the cap numbers have been taken out before today by the USCIS and visa posts, the pending EB-485 applications whose visa number had become current in September 2014 Visa Bulletin could not be adjudicated until after the end of September 2014. Additionally, those EB-2 Indians who have yet to file new EB-485 applications based on the September 2014 Visa Bulletin will not be able to file it until October 1, 2014 or thereafter. It is not clear whether the USCIS and visa offices will reject and return such EB-2 Indian applications which are received after 09/10/2014, but we will have to wait for clarification from the USCIS on this point.
Please stay tuned for confirmation of this information.
If date is current you can file 485. Whoever says otherwise is spreading misinformation. Do not pay attention to that and let others know this too.

[qesehmk]

Sport - I am just answering your private question on "why this move by DOS" - here in the forum publicly. These are my thoughts - so treat them as such.

I think CO is trying to do his job as best as he could. Look, his hands are tied in terms of how many visas he can allocate. So if the numbers are gone .... they are gone.

Once they are gone, he needs to set the expectations of people who are not yet approved and tell them that the party is over as far as 2014 numbers are exhausted. I applaud him for doing that. Personally speaking I would rather hear the bad news now than later.

What has happened here is that EB5 has probably given ZERO spillover. EB1 - I do not believe provided much either. So EB2I was saved by EB2ROW. But those numbers from EB2ROW can't be more than 10K. Thus EB2I had enough numbers to advance upto May 2009 but not enough to approve all of them.

My guess as of now is that at least 30% of people between Jan-May 2009 EB2I were not approved.

I think EB2I's 5 year rule doesn't look very good going forward. Sorry for the bleak assessment. Will update header by tomorrow.

[qesehmk]

What are we to expect in October 2014? Do you think they will be willing to approve the leftover people from the regular quota + phantom spillover applied early (the way they did in Oct 2013) or will they simply close the door in the first week of October?

The VB came out on the 9th and this news came out on the 10th. Clearly, they couldn't have known anything earth shattering in a matter of 24 hours. Why did they leave the VB at May 1, 2009? Does this show a willingness to approve us remaining folks?

The bolded piece seems quite logical to me. What I am not sure of is - can CO really give out the full year EB2I quota in October itself? I know there are laws that require him to use visas 27% each quarter for first 3 quarters. I am not sure though whether that is a lower limit or upper limit. Looks like it could be the lower limit.

[imdeng]

IIRC 27% is the upper limit - in that USCIS can not issue more than 27% of the annual number in any of the first three quarters.

The bolded piece seems quite logical to me. What I am not sure of is - can CO really give out the full year EB2I quota in October itself? I know there are laws that require him to use visas 27% each quarter for first 3 quarters. I am not sure though whether that is a lower limit or upper limit. Looks like it could be the lower limit.

[gc2008]

As per trackitt, there were about 280 plus approvals during OCT/NOV last year. This may translate to few thousands. Any guess from where these numbers came from?

[qesehmk]

IIRC 27% is the upper limit - in that USCIS can not issue more than 27% of the annual number in any of the first three quarters.
Kanmani you there? Spec? Any opinion on this?

[qesehmk]

Q, how is the bolded part logical? The USCIS can approve thousands of cases in a matter of a week. Why would he not retrogress the date in the October bulletin itself to let the demand drive the date forward? Why not do what he does to EB3I until July? Surely, there is no way the demand can be 0 because the USCIS has been approving 200-400 cases each day for the last few days.

Someone mentioned an interesting theory of why the DOS made the bulletin effectively "U". They might want to discourage new applicants from sending their applications in September and endanger them from doing medicals again next year. It is possible that the "U" applies only for new applications and those in the pipelines might be accounted for in whatever remaining spillover for September. As of Sept 11, approvals are still coming in. We have to wait and watch.

It just did not make sense why he would simply make the bulletin U. It's not as if any applications they receive now are going to be adjudicated any time soon. Why stop them in the first place? They did not do this in April 2012 if everyone remembers. The only thing I can derive is that they perhaps want to stop people from burning their medical RFE clock early or free more adjudicators to work on pending cases.

I still feel a little hopeful. Please chime in.
He hasn't made the dates U. In fact he explicitely said they will still be at May 1 2009 in October. However now it is for certain that the dates will be retro in November itself.

What was logical in the bolded part was the last sentence. That in 24 hours there was nothing new he could knew ... so it means yet he kept the date till May 1 2009 in order clear those cases in October.

[raj888]

As per trackitt, there were about 280 plus approvals during OCT/NOV last year. This may translate to few thousands. Any guess from where these numbers came from?

Atually, its much more than 280. Per the Spectators posts in Data and Facts, there were 601 (362+239) EB2 I Trackitt approvals in oct and nov last year. Clearly, thats much more than EB2I annual quota if you multiply the #s by trackitt to actual multiplier.

[pdfeb09]

Q, how is the bolded part logical? The USCIS can approve thousands of cases in a matter of a week. Why would he not retrogress the date in the October bulletin itself to let the demand drive the date forward? Why not do what he does to EB3I until July? Surely, there is no way the demand can be 0 because the USCIS has been approving 200-400 cases each day for the last few days.

Someone mentioned an interesting theory of why the DOS made the bulletin effectively "U". They might want to discourage new applicants from sending their applications in September and endanger them from doing medicals again next year. It is possible that the "U" applies only for new applications and those in the pipelines might be accounted for in whatever remaining spillover for September. As of Sept 11, approvals are still coming in. We have to wait and watch.

It just did not make sense why he would simply make the bulletin U. It's not as if any applications they receive now are going to be adjudicated any time soon. Why stop them in the first place? They did not do this in April 2012 if everyone remembers. The only thing I can derive is that they perhaps want to stop people from burning their medical RFE clock early or free more adjudicators to work on pending cases.

I still feel a little hopeful. Please chime in.

Sports .. I don't think the internal retrogression of dates will deter any new filers (or just RFE responders) from sending their application in. The advantages of getting an EAD/AP far outweigh the expense to redo the medicals.

The people who are waiting to be issued a GC will not hold off on their RFE response either, since they will probably hope to get their GC in Oct.

My thinking is that the dates are intentionally left unchanged to be able to utilize as many new-FY-visas as possible in Oct.

Imdeng,

The 27% limit ... is that on the overall number of visas (regardless of the country quota) or does it specifically bar any country from getting more than 27% of its share in each of the first 3 quarters?

In other words, is it possible, under the law, for EB2I to utilize its own full year quota(7% of total) while delaying some of the ROW for a quarter and then holding off EB2I until the last quarter while working on the ROW ?

[bvsamrat]

This is my opinion


As usual for CO, EB2-I is always a paradox issue to solve

Hence he decided to see the demand data as on end August 2014 and then maintained the Priority date to May 1 2009.

This will have 2 fold effect

a) Most of the assigned visa numbers will still stay attached to the applicants (pending new checks, RFE reviews, ADIT checks etc.)- Hence I presume that pending RFE review cases will be adjudicated and all keep receicing GCs till October end. Only that new numbers are not allocated (for eg. not cases without RFE received or pending checks with longer estimated durations etc.)

b) It would also a great favor to the new applicants or porters with PD up to May 1 2009 where they can apply and get EAD and be inline. Infact EAD might be defacto GC in future for EB2-I(with alleast 2-3 gap). Next year in JUly 2015, these applicants would be ready line as part of demand.

[helooo]

This is my opinion


As usual for CO, EB2-I is always a paradox issue to solve

Hence he decided to see the demand data as on end August 2014 and then maintained the Priority date to May 1 2009.

This will have 2 fold effect

a) Most of the assigned visa numbers will still stay attached to the applicants (pending new checks, RFE reviews, ADIT checks etc.)- Hence I presume that pending RFE review cases will be adjudicated and all keep receicing GCs till October end. Only that new numbers are not allocated (for eg. not cases without RFE received or pending checks with longer estimated durations etc.)

b) It would also a great favor to the new applicants or porters with PD up to May 1 2009 where they can apply and get EAD and be inline. Infact EAD might be defacto GC in future for EB2-I(with alleast 2-3 gap). Next year in JUly 2015, these applicants would be ready line as part of demand.

Will they issue EAD's faster to new applicants now?

[anuprab]

I have been reading the forums here quietly but thought it would be worthwhile to ask the experts on the forum here. I am stuck with 2006 eb3 so my case is out of question. My husband's is May3 2010 EB2. Is there any hope for the date to reach post May 2010 next summer so that he can be the primary applicant. I am stuck in a job with no chance for porting since its finance industry unless I look for another job and that too there is thin chance that an investment firm will do my greencard again. I am just waiting for dates to reach post May 2010 and not looking to get a greencard. Is there any hope for that next year...

[qesehmk]

I have been reading the forums here quietly but thought it would be worthwhile to ask the experts on the forum here. I am stuck with 2006 eb3 so my case is out of question. My husband's is May3 2010 EB2. Is there any hope for the date to reach post May 2010 next summer so that he can be the primary applicant. I am stuck in a job with no chance for porting since its finance industry unless I look for another job and that too there is thin chance that an investment firm will do my greencard again. I am just waiting for dates to reach post May 2010 and not looking to get a greencard. Is there any hope for that next year...
It will be worthwhile to ask a lawyer if you can capture your EB3 date and file 485 under EB2.

As per whether dates will move to 2010 within one year, I can't answer that right now in any intelligent manner because we don't have data.

[anuprab]

Thanks for your reply. the last I checked with my lawyers I couldn't port to eb2 within the same company. Also since I am not in IT but investment management I doubt any other hiring firm will do my perm and 140. I have a call with my lawyer next week but from what I understand I can do a masters and then ask to file under eb2 again. Never mind that I already have an MBA from india and a CFA here but wait the CFA doesn't count since its a professional certification! Further I doubt a small firm like mine will spend the money and do it just for my benefit hence the frustration and the question. Its like every where I turn, I run into a wall. the only right thing to do seems is to wait for our fate!

[Kanmani]

Kanmani you there? Spec? Any opinion on this?

"No more than 27% of the available visas may be issued in any of the first three fiscal quarters" It is the upper limit.

Worth reading:http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2013/03/20/11-35412.pdf

This document states that there is no mention of approving by priority date in any of the statuettes of INA. The law is silent on that matter even for the backlogged countries.

PS: imdeng it is DoS

[mkmcmmn]

I totally agree with you, same thing i'm also planning. My priority date is around May 2011. Only problem i see in switching is i have just 1 year left on my H1B. If i make switch, to get H1B extension beyond 6 years, i'm not sure how i can get PERM and 140 approval within a year, considering companies will not immediately start GC processing.

You already have an approved I-140, correct?
If so, then that's all you need to get a 3-year H1B extension using provisions of AC-21. You don't need to have your new PERM (assuming you change jobs) or I-140 to be approved to take advantage of AC-21 for additional 3-year H1B extensions.

Of course, the gurus here can correct me if I'm wrong.

[vizcard]

Thanks for your reply. the last I checked with my lawyers I couldn't port to eb2 within the same company. Also since I am not in IT but investment management I doubt any other hiring firm will do my perm and 140. I have a call with my lawyer next week but from what I understand I can do a masters and then ask to file under eb2 again. Never mind that I already have an MBA from india and a CFA here but wait the CFA doesn't count since its a professional certification! Further I doubt a small firm like mine will spend the money and do it just for my benefit hence the frustration and the question. Its like every where I turn, I run into a wall. the only right thing to do seems is to wait for our fate!

I dont mean to give career advice on an immigration forum but there are potential avenues where you could get an EB2 application. I know it might be a little difficult with investment management firms but no harming in trying. Also have you considered management consulting in financial services. Its not for everyone but i know mgmt consulting firms are not shy about applying for green cards and such. also, you have the option to move to other industries. With your background it might be possible to get a Treasury or FP&A role.

[vizcard]

I totally agree with you, same thing i'm also planning. My priority date is around May 2011. Only problem i see in switching is i have just 1 year left on my H1B. If i make switch, to get H1B extension beyond 6 years, i'm not sure how i can get PERM and 140 approval within a year, considering companies will not immediately start GC processing.



You already have an approved I-140, correct?
If so, then that's all you need to get a 3-year H1B extension using provisions of AC-21. You don't need to have your new PERM (assuming you change jobs) or I-140 to be approved to take advantage of AC-21 for additional 3-year H1B extensions.

Of course, the gurus here can correct me if I'm wrong.

Its 2 different things - H1 extension vs the green card process. If fedup14 (love the handle btw) changes jobs, here is the likely sequence of events.

- Transfer existing H1B to new employer and get an additional 3 yrs using the approved I140 as the basis (assuming the current employer doesn't withdraw it)
- Re-file the green card process starting with PERM and recapture the old PD.
- Apply for I140 after getting PERM approval (potentially concurrently with I485).

PS - FYI: AC21 provisions refer to both what you posted and also to being able to change jobs 6 months after filing a 485. Typically when AC21 is referred to in forum conversations - it means the latter.

[cursedguy]

I dont mean to give career advice on an immigration forum but there are potential avenues where you could get an EB2 application. I know it might be a little difficult with investment management firms but no harming in trying. Also have you considered management consulting in financial services. Its not for everyone but i know mgmt consulting firms are not shy about applying for green cards and such. also, you have the option to move to other industries. With your background it might be possible to get a Treasury or FP&A role.

Vizcard , I'm sure you have the right intentions behind giving the above advice but changing career for GC which cannot be guaranteed does not work well in the long term for everyone. I'm saying that because I quit a fulltime job with good upward prospects for green card. The problem was they put me in EB3 even though I had Masters + 5 years experience at that time. Fast forward 6 years I may get green card but my career is kind of stagnant for the past 6 six years. Keep in mind these are the best years of my life -once you get older other priorities take over career. Just had to get those thoughts out of my head :).

[saagar_is_cool]

I totally agree with you, same thing i'm also planning. My priority date is around May 2011. Only problem i see in switching is i have just 1 year left on my H1B. If i make switch, to get H1B extension beyond 6 years, i'm not sure how i can get PERM and 140 approval within a year, considering companies will not immediately start GC processing.

If you have approved 140, then you will get 3 years with the new company. Your remaining 1 year in current company has nothing to do with new H1. I have copied my response from trackitt to another user below

--------------------------------------------------

I am no legal expert, but I have had my fair share of moves and different twists, so I will answer from the information collected during my experiences. Post 6 years, you can change jobs on H1 if you meet one of the two conditions. You have an approved 140 from your current employer which the future employer uses and that will get you a 3 year extension (OR) you have an approved labor from current employer or a pending labor for more than 365 days which will get you 1 year extension. But there is a twist involved in this. Let's say you move from A --> B and you have approved 140 with A. When B files, you should file your H1 in premium and ensure that you get approval before giving notice at A. This way A will not revoke your 140 before your H1 is approved. Now if you plan to move from B --> C you can still use 140 from A for 3 years extension provided A has NOT revoked 140 by that time. Typically A will revoke your 140 for various reasons. In that case, you CANNOT move from B unless you have your PERM processing started with B and have approved 140 or approved labor or pending labor for more than 365 days. You have to be very careful about a couple of things. If you give notice at A when you get receipt notice for H1 filing at B and do not do premium, then if A revokes 140 before H1 is approved, you are at risk. So what I did was, did premium and had H1 approval in hand before moving to B to get rid of any risks. This is probably the risk that the new employer immigration team is saying. Also, do you have 140 approval notice copy with you from your current employer. That is very crucial for all these things. You need to atleast have your EAC/SRC number for your 140.

--------------------------------------------------

[saagar_is_cool]

Vizcard , I'm sure you have the right intentions behind giving the above advice but changing career for GC which cannot be guaranteed does not work well in the long term for everyone. I'm saying that because I quit a fulltime job with good upward prospects for green card. The problem was they put me in EB3 even though I had Masters + 5 years experience at that time. Fast forward 6 years I may get green card but my career is kind of stagnant for the past 6 six years. Keep in mind these are the best years of my life -once you get older other priorities take over career. Just had to get those thoughts out of my head :).

We are in similar boat. I was flourishing in a big company with very good career prospects but they filed in EB3 even though I had Masters with 5+ years of experience. I quit and it has been two years and got a chance for EAD this year. I had to forego an excellent opportunity (financial and title wise) in the start of this year, since I had a hunch that I might be current and will lose the opportunity to file 485 and get EAD this year.

At the end of the day it is all about priorities. If I ask myself, why I want a GC and how not having one is setting me back, I don't have a clear answer. But it is one of those things I GOT to have :) I think it boils down to removing uncertianities in longer term. The paradox of all this is, when you are young and you can move anywhere in the country for a better opportunity to move up in your career, you dont have GC and most companies don't want the hassle of sponsorship. By the time you get your GC, you have family and kids and don't want to move across country because of house, school and stability factors. Last month, I had to forego a Senior Director position because of the relocation issue and possible jeopardy of 485/EAD 6 month rule. The system demands excellence but is bent on pushing us towards mediocrity. Anyways, Life goes on, GC or no GC :D

[gc2008]

As per trackitt, there were about 280 plus approvals during OCT/NOV last year. This may translate to few thousands. Any guess from where these numbers came from?

Hello Gurus,
Can you please answer my question?

[cursedguy]

We are in similar boat. I was flourishing in a big company with very good career prospects but they filed in EB3 even though I had Masters with 5+ years of experience. I quit and it has been two years and got a chance for EAD this year. I had to forego an excellent opportunity (financial and title wise) in the start of this year, since I had a hunch that I might be current and will lose the opportunity to file 485 and get EAD this year.

At the end of the day it is all about priorities. If I ask myself, why I want a GC and how not having one is setting me back, I don't have a clear answer. But it is one of those things I GOT to have :) I think it boils down to removing uncertianities in longer term. The paradox of all this is, when you are young and you can move anywhere in the country for a better opportunity to move up in your career, you dont have GC and most companies don't want the hassle of sponsorship. By the time you get your GC, you have family and kids and don't want to move across country because of house, school and stability factors. Last month, I had to forego a Senior Director position because of the relocation issue and possible jeopardy of 485/EAD 6 month rule. The system demands excellence but is bent on pushing us towards mediocrity. Anyways, Life goes on, GC or no GC :D

Exactly, it works for some and does not for others. *IF* EO by Obama goes thru in November' 14 (not saying it will) do we beat ourselves for doing all this ? I don't know.

[cursedguy]

Hello Gurus,
Can you please answer my question?

Yearly Quota ofcourse, it opens on Oct 1st. Approximately 3000 for EB2.

[gc2008]

I just checked trackitt, there were about 660 EB2 cases approved in two months (OCT/NOV). If we convert this it would be more than actual 3000 visas.

[vizcard]

Yearly Quota ofcourse, it opens on Oct 1st. Approximately 3000 for EB2.


I just checked trackitt, there were about 660 EB2 cases approved in two months (OCT/NOV). If we convert this it would be more than actual 3000 visas.

few factors - there's the annual quota. there was also a hypothesis that there were cases with visas already requested from the previous fiscal year but were approved in Oct. lastly, another hypothesis is that CO used some estimated FB overflow from the previous fiscal year.

[vizcard]

Vizcard , I'm sure you have the right intentions behind giving the above advice but changing career for GC which cannot be guaranteed does not work well in the long term for everyone. I'm saying that because I quit a fulltime job with good upward prospects for green card. The problem was they put me in EB3 even though I had Masters + 5 years experience at that time. Fast forward 6 years I may get green card but my career is kind of stagnant for the past 6 six years. Keep in mind these are the best years of my life -once you get older other priorities take over career. Just had to get those thoughts out of my head :).

im not at all suggesting you change jobs just for a GC. I assumed based on your original post that you were in fact looking to change jobs. My bad!

[gc2008]

Quarterly spill over should not be more than 800 visas, how come they approved to the tune of atleast 6000 visas (I am assuming 10% of cases report in trackitt)?

By definition, quarterly spillover would mean more than 800 visas.

[gc2008]

I still see about 2500 cases pending till 30th April 2009 on trackitt. So my assumption of 10% report in trackitt may not be correct. If it is 10% then it would be 25000 still waiting and this should not be the case (based on inventory). Even if we assume 30% people report on trackitt, then there are still 8300 cases are pending.

[vizcard]

I still see about 2500 cases pending till 30th April 2009 on trackitt. So my assumption of 10% report in trackitt may not be correct. If it is 10% then it would be 25000 still waiting and this should not be the case (based on inventory). Even if we assume 30% people report on trackitt, then there are still 8300 cases are pending.

Not everyone will get approved. that's consistent from previous years too. There is always an "overhang" that carries over to the next year - could be anywhere from 2000-5000 cases.

[vizcard]

Will they issue EAD's faster to new applicants now?

Hard to answer your question. Back in 2012, they were issuing EADs in 15-30 days. Then the renewals in 2013 took 45-60 days for some. It'll be interesting to get current data on EAD processing times through trackitt.

[Kanmani]

I still see about 2500 cases pending till 30th April 2009 on trackitt. So my assumption of 10% report in trackitt may not be correct. If it is 10% then it would be 25000 still waiting and this should not be the case (based on inventory). Even if we assume 30% people report on trackitt, then there are still 8300 cases are pending.

gc2008, we cannot use that 10% to extrapolate the data on all those statistics at trackitt. The reason is, people don't always update their case details immediately after approval or some update don't forever, especially after a prolonged wait. They do actively register at the very beginning and many tend to forget in the due course. So the trackitt data varies time to time and person's perspective to person. We should spend some time to analyze the wave.

[anuprab]

i thought i was alone in my misery but its heartening to know there are so many qualified people stuck in a rut. Saagar...u hit the nail on the head. I spent my late 20s and early 30s settling in this country and getting a CFA. Should have moved right after but got the biological clock ticking like a time bomb and now its too late. GC would give the much needed certainty. Sadly given up on career growth for now! i think of it as the price being paid for making a choice to stay in this country....and yes the system doesnt have to try hard to put you towards mediocrity...ver well said!
on other note why doesnt BO just do something for the legals instead of tying their fate with the 11m undocumented workers. Is there no way we can do something about this, I agree we are not the vote bank but c'mon they cant let this backlog run like this for yrs and yrs...this is the only country that gets so many immigrants that helps it succeed.

[qesehmk]

"No more than 27% of the available visas may be issued in any of the first three fiscal quarters" It is the upper limit.

Worth reading:http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2013/03/20/11-35412.pdf

This document states that there is no mention of approving by priority date in any of the statuettes of INA. The law is silent on that matter even for the backlogged countries.


It just became more complicated then. I am wondering then how do we explain the early approvals this year in October and going into November.

[migo79]

The only thing that can advance EBI forward is a CIR, looking at the numbers for EB2I for example is bleaky post 2010PD, there is huge number of EB2I perms approved more than the ones in 2008,2009 which current cutoff date at.

add to that the increase in other categories that will not give high SOFAD, this will make EB2I movement very slow in the coming years.

without a CIR EBI category is a joke, sorry for that, maybe EB3I could have good chances when the pass the 2007 bottleneck assuming EB3ROW gets current but also they won't see much higher SO until next year.

there must be a CIR!

[anuprab]

The only thing that can advance EBI forward is a CIR, looking at the numbers for EB2I for example is bleaky post 2010PD, there is huge number of EB2I perms approved more than the ones in 2008,2009 which current cutoff date at.

add to that the increase in other categories that will not give high SOFAD, this will make EB2I movement very slow in the coming years.

without a CIR EBI category is a joke, sorry for that, maybe EB3I could have good chances when the pass the 2007 bottleneck assuming EB3ROW gets current but also they won't see much higher SO until next year.

there must be a CIR!

where can I get an idea on the number of PERMS filed. My husband has May 3 2010 as his PD so hoping there weren't many filed before that date in 2010

[jdoe99]

It just became more complicated then. I am wondering then how do we explain the early approvals this year in October and going into November.

Q and other experts: Can someone explain how the Family spillover or visa allocation works for Eb2I in the beginning of the fiscal year. As far as I can see, even family based applications are stuck way back (ok, not as much as E2bI and Eb3I). I am having trouble understanding how this affects the number of visas they give out in Oct. For FY 2014 they gave out 362 and 239 485 primary approvals as per Spec's compilation of trackitt user data. Given the scaling and dependents, I am sure this works out to more than a couple of thousand at the very least.
You probably have answered these questions. Apologies and Thanks in advance :)

[anuprab]

This data should not be hard to obtain. Spec is on vacation, when he returns, he will give you a better picture. For you, the PERM data would not be very useful though. Almost everyone until May 1 2010 is already in the inventory, so looking at the inventory and adding 3-5K for each passing year (porting) would give you an educated guess into how many people are in front of you.

It was thought before that May 3 2010 would be current by 2016 (an outside chance of 2015). With the latest developments (decreasing spillovers, increasing porting), an year or 2 may have been added to this estimate. Suffices to say, you are looking at 2-4 years for that date to be current. You might in fact have an outside shot of your EB3I date of 2006 being current within 3-4 years the way porting is reducing inventory in EB3I. If you are looking for a job that offers EB2 upgrade, this is an ideal time to start looking.

omg please say that's not true. I cant wait for another 3-4 yrs, I can wait 2. I am not looking at getting the greencard. I just want that date to be current so I can move on from being primary ...no hopes for that either?

[bikenlalan]

2-4 years wait is really frightening. I was hoping to file at least in the July-Sep 2015 or early 2016 when CO decides to build inventory and get the EAD. My PD is EB2-I Feb 2011. Chances of that sure look bleak.

I hope Obama signs the executive order for H-4 spouses to work later this year. But I do not see CIR or the EO for excluding dependents or visa recapture go through.

[bikenlalan]

Just a question to clear my understanding, CO must have kept some visas for ROW countries in all categories, hoping their demand will come in until Sep 30 and made EB2-I Unavialable. What if the demand for some countries does not come in as hoped for, the remaining numbers for those countries are allocated to the most retrogressed country in that Category, especially EB2? Or these visas are wasted and are given to FB quota for next FY?

[GC2014]

Hi experts, need your inputs on my 485 application.

My PD -- 10/11/2010
My Wife's PD -- 04/13/2009 -- CURRENT in SEPT 2014 -- first time filer

I have received the 485 receipts today and it has my PD (10/11/2010) and different A# (frommy 140 approval) on it. I thought my 485 receipt will have my wife's PD (04/13/2009) and her A# (from her 140 approval). Is it correct or by mistake they printed my PD (which is not yet current) instead of my wife's PD?

Please advise.

Thanks in advance,
GC2014

[anuprab]

Guys,

I apologize for raising an unexpected alarm with my "2-4 year comment". It's more correct to say that everything is unknown at this point.

These are the factors that need to be considered when building future projections. Let's get the bad news out first and focus on the good news next.

headwinds (bad):
- EB5 will stop giving us spillover going forward.
- This applies only for next year but EB2-ROW won't provide much spillover next year.

tailwinds (good):
+ PERM processing times are going to be worse, so that means fewer applications from ROW categories and porters to crowd out EB2I.

Wild cards:
? How will EB1 behave in the coming years? It more or less depends upon clamping down EB1C. It has been reported that Indians are no longer alone in exploiting this loophole. I am very optimistic this will happen some time, although we might have to endure short term pain.
? Porting. Pre-2007 porting should continue to reduce but post-2007 porting that is not captured in EB3I inventory is unknown. Judging from CO's response and a need to immediately retrogress EB2I, porting for this year is about as bad as it was last year.
? Executive relief.

Put these factors together and try to create an approximate picture in your mind. Post May 1, 2009, an entire year's worth of EB2I inventory (about 12-15K) will remain. Porters will keep jumping on this treadmill. If 2016 turns out to be a great year for spillover, I have no doubt EB2I will jump and go into inventory buildup mode. But if it doesn't happen, it could be 2017 instead. That's why I gave my projection. I think based upon the large pending inventory from EB2-ROW, we can rule out 2015.

Generally, projections and predictions tend to be on the pessimistic side. We have joked that EB2I has a guardian angel that has kept it moving despite all possible headwinds. We also might get lucky yet again in family spillover. So do not fret over when you will become current. Live in the moment (I know it's easier said than done).


Sportsfan33,

I really appreciate your detailed clarification on the subject, wasn't able to push food down my throat at lunch today :( but it is what it is...I just hope its 2016 and not 2017 maybe there is a guardian angel. Its been 12 yrs in the country for us and I know there are ppl with longer timeframes waiting but this has by far been the greatest test of patience. Getting into a bigger house in a better schooling district for kids, moving into another job with more flexibility and things like that are all a pipe dream for now..maybe some day before its not too late all this will happen.

[jimmys]

Guys,

I apologize for raising an unexpected alarm with my "2-4 year comment". It's more correct to say that everything is unknown at this point.

.

If underlying circumstances don't change you're not far from truth. Everything is unknown at this point but FY'14 didn't give great hope (Especially retrogression back to 2005 says a lot of cases will be unapproved before May,1,2009) either for FY'15.

[vizcard]

Hi experts, need your inputs on my 485 application.

My PD -- 10/11/2010
My Wife's PD -- 04/13/2009 -- CURRENT in SEPT 2014 -- first time filer

I have received the 485 receipts today and it has my PD (10/11/2010) and different A# (frommy 140 approval) on it. I thought my 485 receipt will have my wife's PD (04/13/2009) and her A# (from her 140 approval). Is it correct or by mistake they printed my PD (which is not yet current) instead of my wife's PD?

Please advise.

Thanks in advance,
GC2014

Your receipts should show your A# and your wife's pd. Just call the customer service # and get clarification (and then let the forum know too)

[vizcard]

Just a question to clear my understanding, CO must have kept some visas for ROW countries in all categories, hoping their demand will come in until Sep 30 and made EB2-I Unavialable. What if the demand for some countries does not come in as hoped for, the remaining numbers for those countries are allocated to the most retrogressed country in that Category, especially EB2? Or these visas are wasted and are given to FB quota for next FY?


This has been a debated topic. No one knows.

It's possible that "some" October approvals are from the previous FY numbers, but no one has ever proven it conclusively. If EB visas are wasted, they are given to FB, but this hasn't happened in a long time (it's been happening in the other direction).

It is however the case that VOs can request visa numbers on a specific day and the case is updated a few days later. We are seeing this phenomenon on trackitt (approvals are still reported even for today). If cases are approved on Sept 29, 30th etc., we may see their approvals on Oct 1 onwards.

The gist is that we can safely rule out "visa wastage" possibility.

CO has clear visibility in to the number of applications in the pipeline for ROW. Also, it is a very safe assumption that any new application from July onwards will have a very low probability of getting approved. There definitely won't be wastage cos if there's even one visa left on 9/30, it will be allocated to EB2I.

[vizcard]

If underlying circumstances don't change you're not far from truth. Everything is unknown at this point but FY'14 didn't give great hope (Especially retrogression back to 2005 says a lot of cases will be unapproved before May,1,2009) either for FY'15.

There are always unapproved cases. There were atleast 3k cases unapproved from fy13 that rolled into fy14. The same will happen this year. CO always goes a little long with the dates with the understanding that not everyone will get approved but atleast visas won't be wasted.

[GC2014]

Your receipts should show your A# and your wife's pd. Just call the customer service # and get clarification (and then let the forum know too)

Just now I have talked to my attorney. You are correct Viz, my 485 receipt should have my wife's PD and the A# should be mine (which is correct).

so my attorney said, she will contact them and get the PD amended in my 485 receipt notice.


how much time it takes for the amendment and get the new amended 485 receipt again?

[helooo]

Hello Gurus,
NSC is approving EAD's at rapid pace today for July 2014 filers.No approvals from TSC.One person posted on Trackitt that one of his friend got GC directly from TSC.Does it mean TSC may not issue EAD's but issue GC if there is no problem with the case.Any thoughts?

[vizcard]

Where the retrogressed date lands is of no consequence at all. 2005 or even 2008 doesn't make any difference at this point. Upwards of 90% of original filers until May 1 2009 should be greened when the dust settles (I am hoping). Even a backlog of 2K (which is quite low for EB2I) will push the date that far back.

When the next inventory comes out, we will know where things stand.

To add to this... CO pushes it way back to minimize porting that would consume numbers. He could alternately make it U with the same net effect.

[vishnu]

My priority date is eb2 sep 2010

Received nvc fee payment email yesterday!

FYI I last received it in feb 2012 when dates moved upto may 2010, stuck there for 2 months and retrogressed

I am confident dos issues such notices when they THINK dates could get current imminently - no guarantee of course that they actually do

Anyone else with pd after may 2010, who have opted for cp, received notices?

[vizcard]

Q and other experts: Can someone explain how the Family spillover or visa allocation works for Eb2I in the beginning of the fiscal year. As far as I can see, even family based applications are stuck way back (ok, not as much as E2bI and Eb3I). I am having trouble understanding how this affects the number of visas they give out in Oct. For FY 2014 they gave out 362 and 239 485 primary approvals as per Spec's compilation of trackitt user data. Given the scaling and dependents, I am sure this works out to more than a couple of thousand at the very least.
You probably have answered these questions. Apologies and Thanks in advance :)

I'm not sure if someone answered your question. Essentially the rule is if there is any wastage on the FB side (due to whatever reason), it HAS TO get transferred to EB in the next fiscal year. It cannot be used by FB in the next year. Hence by the end of a fiscal year (i.e. Sept), CO has a pretty good idea of FB usage and can use some of the overflow in Oct / Nov. Mind you the "official" figures don't come out till Jan/ Feb of the following calendar year.

[imdeng]

Wait a min - this is major - the fee is only valid for 1 year IIRC. Plus NVC notices come from DOS and not USCIS - so this is from the source and not some interpretation of DOS' intent by USCIS (like the RFE business). But - Sep 2010 is really way out. Only way we are reaching there is in an inventory build-out scenario. Can we take this as a signal that EB2I inventory buildout is coming? We are getting into 2012-redux?

The Medical RFE process will help the approvals not get into completely random territory. Approvals will remain constraint by 01NOV2009 RFE deadline. This will help with the double RFE problems we would have had in next summer.

Spec - come back from vacation already (>jk< :)
Kanmani - what do you think of this development?


My priority date is eb2 sep 2010

Received nvc fee payment email yesterday!

FYI I last received it in feb 2012 when dates moved upto may 2010, stuck there for 2 months and retrogressed

I am confident dos issues such notices when they THINK dates could get current imminently - no guarantee of course that they actually do

Anyone else with pd after may 2010, who have opted for cp, received notices?

[qesehmk]

Header updated.

[gc2008]

Header updated.

There are still many people left with PD less than 2008 and you mentioned that most of the cases upto march 2009 will be cleared... can you guess how people will be approved in October before dates retrogress in November?

[imdeng]

More thoughts regarding the NVC fee notice. I looked though some of the discussion in 2012. NVC fee notices then went out for as far as late in 2011. Also - 1 year validity does not seem to be a hard requirement.

So - tempering enthusiasm - it's a good development - the possibility of a 2012 repeat exists.

[qesehmk]

There are still many people left with PD less than 2008 and you mentioned that most of the cases upto march 2009 will be cleared... can you guess how people will be approved in October before dates retrogress in November?
I do not know what happened in last October. If you are expecting the same phenomenon this year and asking me if it's possible, I will say I don't know.

But I think a lot of the 2008 folks do not necessarily update trackitt data in real time or anywhere close to real time. The reason I say this is because trackitt approval % for 2008 and 2009 for EB2I is pretty much the same. I would've expected 2008 at a much higher rate than 2009.

In other words I think trackitt data may not reflect reality.

As per your own case - I think you should try to make some noise. If you are in 2008 and not yet approved - there is something wrong.

[gc2008]

I do not know what happened in last October. If you are expecting the same phenomenon this year and asking me if it's possible, I will say I don't know.

But I think a lot of the 2008 folks do not necessarily update trackitt data in real time or anywhere close to real time. The reason I say this is because trackitt approval % for 2008 and 2009 for EB2I is pretty much the same. I would've expected 2008 at a much higher rate than 2009.

In other words I think trackitt data may not reflect reality.

As per your own case - I think you should try to make some noise. If you are in 2008 and not yet approved - there is something wrong.
I opened SR and to which they mentioned visa is available and requested my case for reveiw and i should hear something from them in 90 days. Also contacted congresman and yet to hear from them. When i contacted l2 they mentioned that no one has assined to my case. I dont know whats wrong with my case...

If some thing is wrong then I should not have even got RFE right but I got it and responded back in july and patiently waiting since then.. do you have any suggestions?

[Kanmani]

imdeng,

USCIS might have got some hint on date movement from 'O' before sending these random mass RFEs and he eventually messed up everything by misunderstanding the whole situation. Imagine, our case file already has '3' I-693s sitting, and one more next year would be like killing us bluntly. I do think we cannot predict anything out of their actions (both DoS and USCIS).

I think dates might move beyond may 2010 next year at the end of the 4th quarter, but, how far would depend upon, how far next year's CoD movement is going to go.

Without FB extra visas, we may closely end up at Dec2009 next year.

[qesehmk]

I opened SR and to which they mentioned visa is available and requested my case for reveiw and i should hear something from them in 90 days. Also contacted congresman and yet to hear from them. When i contacted l2 they mentioned that no one has assined to my case. I dont know whats wrong with my case...

If some thing is wrong then I should not have even got RFE right but I got it and responded back in july and patiently waiting since then.. do you have any suggestions?
I am sorry to hear all that. Certainly didn't want to hurt you but by the story you are giving - looks like something IS wrong there. I don't have any more suggestions. Sorry.

[imdeng]

I was reading through 2012 Jan-Feb posts - we had such a good time.

During 2012, NVC notices were an advance notice of coming PD movements. Dates did not go as far as NVC notices went eventually - still - NVC notices for advanced dates are a good thing to happen.


imdeng,

USCIS might have got some hint on date movement from 'O' before sending these random mass RFEs and he eventually messed up everything by misunderstanding the whole situation. Imagine, our case file already has '3' I-693s sitting, and one more next year would be like killing us bluntly. I do think we cannot predict anything out of their actions (both DoS and USCIS).

I think dates might move beyond may 2010 next year at the end of the 4th quarter, but, how far would depend upon, how far next year's CoD movement is going to go.

Without FB extra visas, we may closely end up at Dec2009 next year.

[jdoe99]

I'm not sure if someone answered your question. Essentially the rule is if there is any wastage on the FB side (due to whatever reason), it HAS TO get transferred to EB in the next fiscal year. It cannot be used by FB in the next year. Hence by the end of a fiscal year (i.e. Sept), CO has a pretty good idea of FB usage and can use some of the overflow in Oct / Nov. Mind you the "official" figures don't come out till Jan/ Feb of the following calendar year.

Thanks for the information !

[gc2008]

I am sorry to hear all that. Certainly didn't want to hurt you but by the story you are giving - looks like something IS wrong there. I don't have any more suggestions. Sorry.

There is nothing wrong with my case. There are many like me from 2008 who were left (based on trackit discussion threads and not from the tracker). I guess it all depends on luck

[qesehmk]

There is nothing wrong with my case. There are many like me from 2008 who were left (based on trackit discussion threads and not from the tracker). I guess it all depends on luck
Sure. All the best.

[vishnu]

Further to my post from the weekend about receiving NVC fee notice (Sep 2010 PD), my lawyer (one of the largest law national firms) confirmed that other late 2010 PDs have received notices. Her view is that DoS anticipates dates becoming current soon. It may not be the case, but theysend out notices only when they think dates become current soon.

[VV_Nlr]

Long time follower of this forum.
You are like the Big Data of Immigration.

My Pd is 02/02/2011. I also received NVC Fee notice over the weekend.
Last time, I received the notice in 2012, the bubble was starting.
But now when the dates are supposed to to retrogress?

[ramaka02]

Have you tried reaching out to the Ombudsman office and see if they can shed some light on your case? I sincerely hope you get the approval soon.


There is nothing wrong with my case. There are many like me from 2008 who were left (based on trackit discussion threads and not from the tracker). I guess it all depends on luck

[vizcard]

Long time follower of this forum.
You are like the Big Data of Immigration.

My Pd is 02/02/2011. I also received NVC Fee notice over the weekend.
Last time, I received the notice in 2012, the bubble was starting.
But now when the dates are supposed to to retrogress?


Further to my post from the weekend about receiving NVC fee notice (Sep 2010 PD), my lawyer (one of the largest law national firms) confirmed that other late 2010 PDs have received notices. Her view is that DoS anticipates dates becoming current soon. It may not be the case, but theysend out notices only when they think dates become current soon.


My thought is there is some system trigger where based on certain conditions (country not being one of them), it will spit out NVC notices. Remember that these are not just for EB-I. Other countries and categories are way ahead in terms of PD and so it makes sense for them to get their NVC notices ahead of time.

Thats my theory anyway

[iatiam]

So I had a quick question on the effect of cut-off dates on porting volume. I checked the 485 inventory and it seems like there are 12,000 people between November 2003 (current EB3I PD)and Jan 2005. Now, if the CoD for EB2I is moved to 2005 (assuming Jan 2005) per reports, does it mean that the porting from EB3I to EB2I would be very minimum. I am familiar with the 5000 as the number of porters (with 3000 as close contender). If you need 5000 porting cases, then it would mean 40-50% of the EB3I folks in the window needs to be ported. That does not seem to be possible.

Come summer 2015 when the dates progress, there will be a few more porters. But is the 3-month window long enough to get all of them in?

Iatiam

[vishnu]

My thought is there is some system trigger where based on certain conditions (country not being one of them), it will spit out NVC notices. Remember that these are not just for EB-I. Other countries and categories are way ahead in terms of PD and so it makes sense for them to get their NVC notices ahead of time.

Thats my theory anyway

that wouldnt make sense - if that were the case, would have received these notices many times over the past 4 years...only received in 2012 (ahead of move upto may 2010), and now...
may not amount to anything, but worth watching

[Jonty Rhodes]

Long time follower of this forum.
You are like the Big Data of Immigration.

My Pd is 02/02/2011. I also received NVC Fee notice over the weekend.
Last time, I received the notice in 2012, the bubble was starting.
But now when the dates are supposed to to retrogress?

My PD is 5/20/2011. In FY2012, I remember reading the news of few EB2I candidates with PDs of June and even September 2011 receiving NVC notices. I was really excited with news having a PD in May, 2011 but nothing came out of it and the dates stalled and eventually retrogressed. Interestingly, despite those NVC notices, dates never crossed into 2011.

To me, it seems like sometimes the NVC notices go out to applicants way in advance but especially when it comes to EB2I in the current situation, NVC notices do not have significant correlation with PD advancement in visa bulletin. For EB2ROW, it is a different story.

I would not be excited this time. But that's just me.

If EB2I PD advances, it would be a miracle. But I don't expect it especially when Mr. CO has categorically stated that dates will retrogress come November.

[imdeng]

Retrogression only delays the porting volume. If PD goes too 2004 then yes EB3I folks with PD after 2004 will not be able to file for porting - but they will just keep waiting and accumulating and will file en-masse when dates become current for them during summer spillover season. Those who were planning to port still end up porting - just that instead of happening immediately it will happen a few months later.

So I had a quick question on the effect of cut-off dates on porting volume. I checked the 485 inventory and it seems like there are 12,000 people between November 2003 (current EB3I PD)and Jan 2005. Now, if the CoD for EB2I is moved to 2005 (assuming Jan 2005) per reports, does it mean that the porting from EB3I to EB2I would be very minimum. I am familiar with the 5000 as the number of porters (with 3000 as close contender). If you need 5000 porting cases, then it would mean 40-50% of the EB3I folks in the window needs to be ported. That does not seem to be possible.

Come summer 2015 when the dates progress, there will be a few more porters. But is the 3-month window long enough to get all of them in?

Iatiam

[imdeng]

Sure dates did not reach as far as NVC notice dates - but NVC notices did pre-signal the coming move in PD. Once NVC notices stopped, PD movement also stopped - and vice-versa.

Am not saying dates will move as far as the NVC notice dates - but I am saying that NVC notices are usually sent in anticipation of dates moving ahead. It might be a smart move to move dates to say 01JAN2012 for a couple of months. Approve folks upto 01NOV2009 to avoid double RFE issue - and in the process get enough inventory to avoid any issues for FY15 and FY16.


My PD is 5/20/2011. In FY2012, I remember reading the news of few EB2I candidates with PDs of June and even September 2011 receiving NVC notices. I was really excited with news having a PD in May, 2011 but nothing came out of it and the dates stalled and eventually retrogressed. Interestingly, despite those NVC notices, dates never crossed into 2011.

To me, it seems like sometimes the NVC notices go out to applicants way in advance but especially when it comes to EB2I in the current situation, NVC notices do not have significant correlation with PD advancement in visa bulletin. For EB2ROW, it is a different story.

I would not be excited this time. But that's just me.

If EB2I PD advances, it would be a miracle. But I don't expect it especially when Mr. CO has categorically stated that dates will retrogress come November.

[vizcard]

So I had a quick question on the effect of cut-off dates on porting volume. I checked the 485 inventory and it seems like there are 12,000 people between November 2003 (current EB3I PD)and Jan 2005. Now, if the CoD for EB2I is moved to 2005 (assuming Jan 2005) per reports, does it mean that the porting from EB3I to EB2I would be very minimum. I am familiar with the 5000 as the number of porters (with 3000 as close contender). If you need 5000 porting cases, then it would mean 40-50% of the EB3I folks in the window needs to be ported. That does not seem to be possible.

Come summer 2015 when the dates progress, there will be a few more porters. But is the 3-month window long enough to get all of them in?

Iatiam


Retrogression only delays the porting volume. If PD goes too 2004 then yes EB3I folks with PD after 2004 will not be able to file for porting - but they will just keep waiting and accumulating and will file en-masse when dates become current for them during summer spillover season. Those who were planning to port still end up porting - just that instead of happening immediately it will happen a few months later.

and to add to imdeng's comment regarding the 3-month window. If the EB3 applicant already has an EB3 485 filed and is porting, it is a short process (almost click a button to approve). If they are first time filers, obviously they won't be approved in 3 months.

[Spectator]

Long time follower of this forum.
You are like the Big Data of Immigration.

My Pd is 02/02/2011. I also received NVC Fee notice over the weekend.
Last time, I received the notice in 2012, the bubble was starting.
But now when the dates are supposed to to retrogress?In an article (http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/04/29/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-comments-by-charles-oppenheim-eb-2-india-to-advance-finally-april-2014/) dated April 29, 2014, CO said the following about the timing of NVC Invoices:


Note on Timing of NVC Fee Invoices

Mr. Oppenheim noted that the National Visa Center (NVC) is sending our requests for fee payments about 8 to 12 months in advance of the priority date becoming current (this is change to the previous practice of doing so 12-18 months in advance). When applicants pay the fee earlier after receipt of the fee invoice, Mr. Oppenheim is able to “see” the demand earlier and adjust the demand in the category accordingly, eliminating the need of major forward movement, followed by a retrogression.

That said, I see no prospect, outside of Executive Action, that would make a PD of 02/02/2011 current within the next 12 months.

[gcvijay]

Hi Spec and other gurus in this forum

Thanks for all your guidance to your community. I keep hearing that there will be very less or no spillovers from EB2 ROW, EB5, EB1 and FB for FY 2015. With that being true will there be any chance of moving dates beyond May 2009 during June or July 2015 Visa Bulletins. Do July 2009 priority dates stand a chance getting GC or EAD by end of FY 2015 or Early FY 2016? Also, I saw the news about perm delays starting October 2015 and how will this impact EB2 India Dates? I hope I didn't ask any stupid question.

Appreciate your response.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec and other gurus in this forum

Thanks for all your guidance to your community. I keep hearing that there will be very less or no spillovers from EB2 ROW, EB5, EB1 and FB for FY 2015. With that being true will there be any chance of moving dates beyond May 2009 during June or July 2015 Visa Bulletins. Do July 2009 priority dates stand a chance getting GC or EAD by end of FY 2015 or Early FY 2016? Also, I saw the news about perm delays starting October 2015 and how will this impact EB2 India Dates? I hope I didn't ask any stupid question.

Appreciate your response.gcvijay,

Welcome to the forum. No question is stupid and yours certainly is not.

I'll give my thoughts, but they are subject to change as more data becomes available on FY2014 use. Other people may have an entirely different (or opposite viewpoint).

In the worst case scenario:

a) No spare FB visas available in FY2015.

b) EB1 uses their allocation plus any Fall Up from EB4.

c) EB5 uses their allocation.

d) EB2-ROW uses their allocation. If Q4 FY2014 PERM certifications continue at the same rate in Q1-Q2 FY2015, that is a likely scenario.

e) CO uses the entire 2.8k initial EB2-I allocation in October 2014 to approve some of the cases that could not be approved in FY2014.

Under the above conditions, there would be no available SO for EB2-I and all visa numbers would have been used in October 2014 / by cases still current from November 2014 onwards.

Movement beyond 01MAY09 would not be possible.

If PERM certifications do slow as has been suggested, then based on a halving of certification numbers in Q1-Q2 FY2015, around 6k FA might be available from EB2-ROW.

That would probably be sufficient to move the COD beyond 01MAY09 at the end of FY2015.

It's also possible that the EB1 approvals will settle down to a more "normal" level.

As I said, it really is too early to make a sensible prediction at this time.

I have updated my predictions on the first page.

[iatiam]

gcvijay,

Welcome to the forum. No question is stupid and yours certainly is not.

I'll give my thoughts, but they are subject to change as more data becomes available on FY2014 use. Other people may have an entirely different (or opposite viewpoint).

In the worst case scenario:

a) No spare FB visas available in FY2015.

b) EB1 uses their allocation plus any Fall Up from EB4.

c) EB5 uses their allocation.

d) EB2-ROW uses their allocation. If Q4 FY2014 PERM certifications continue at the same rate in Q1-Q2 FY2015, that is a likely scenario.

e) CO uses the entire 2.8k initial EB2-I allocation in October 2014 to approve some of the cases that could not be approved in FY2014.

Under the above conditions, there would be no available SO for EB2-I and all visa numbers would have been used in October 2014 / by cases still current from November 2014 onwards.

Movement beyond 01MAY09 would not be possible.

If PERM certifications do slow as has been suggested, then based on a halving of certification numbers in Q1-Q2 FY2015, around 6k FA might be available from EB2-ROW.

That would probably be sufficient to move the COD beyond 01MAY09 at the end of FY2015.

It's also possible that the EB1 approvals will settle down to a more "normal" level.

As I said, it really is too early to make a sensible prediction at this time.

I have updated my predictions on the first page.

Spec,

Thats depressing. Other than the selfish motive of getting greened next year (PD: Aug 2009), I was also hoping that the dates would move beyond Mar 2010 to build inventory. What do you think the porting would be? Now that a lot of people have ported, would it not slow down and provide some relief to EB2I.

Iatiam

[vizcard]

Spec,

Thats depressing. Other than the selfish motive of getting greened next year (PD: Aug 2009), I was also hoping that the dates would move beyond Mar 2010 to build inventory. What do you think the porting would be? Now that a lot of people have ported, would it not slow down and provide some relief to EB2I.

Iatiam

I'll give you my view on porting. Porting is a continuous phenomenon. Think about it this way (simplistic). Bare minimum to port is 5 yrs experience. So people who ported in 2014 had to have started working in 2009 or earlier. So now that we move to 2015, you will get a new year's worth of people (2009-2010) eligible for porting. Will the numbers reduce - personally I don't think so. The underlying dynamics for EB3 haven't changed so there is no reason to expect resulting behaviors to change.

Just my opinion.

[qesehmk]

Yes ... agree w Viz. Portings wouldn't change drastically year over year. Having said that it is not unreasonable to expect portings to increase from one year to next. As time goes by more and more EB3 folks gain seniority and influence in the company to request refiling in EB2. Even if you assume increase is 10% .. that's still 300-500 extra numbers we are talking about.

[gc4a_k]

I opened SR and to which they mentioned visa is available and requested my case for reveiw and i should hear something from them in 90 days. Also contacted congresman and yet to hear from them. When i contacted l2 they mentioned that no one has assined to my case. I dont know whats wrong with my case...

If some thing is wrong then I should not have even got RFE right but I got it and responded back in july and patiently waiting since then.. do you have any suggestions?

hi,

hang in there. you shld get gc soon. my pd is 24 march 2009, rferr was 11 jul, 2014. raised eSR on 4th sept (couldn't wait for 60 days) spoke with l1 on 10th sept, she was kind enough to transfer me to L2, however l2 said that he cannot give me any info as I had already raised eSR and told me to wait till 19th sept. finally got cpo email yesterday. I think L2 wont say anything if they know you have raised SR. that's my 2 cents. hope you get GC soooon.

Q,Spec,Viz,Sports,kamani etc thanks a ton for all the help/analysis which helped me preserve my sanity.

[saagar_is_cool]

gcvijay,

Welcome to the forum. No question is stupid and yours certainly is not.

I'll give my thoughts, but they are subject to change as more data becomes available on FY2014 use. Other people may have an entirely different (or opposite viewpoint).

In the worst case scenario:

a) No spare FB visas available in FY2015.

b) EB1 uses their allocation plus any Fall Up from EB4.

c) EB5 uses their allocation.

d) EB2-ROW uses their allocation. If Q4 FY2014 PERM certifications continue at the same rate in Q1-Q2 FY2015, that is a likely scenario.

e) CO uses the entire 2.8k initial EB2-I allocation in October 2014 to approve some of the cases that could not be approved in FY2014.

Under the above conditions, there would be no available SO for EB2-I and all visa numbers would have been used in October 2014 / by cases still current from November 2014 onwards.

Movement beyond 01MAY09 would not be possible.

If PERM certifications do slow as has been suggested, then based on a halving of certification numbers in Q1-Q2 FY2015, around 6k FA might be available from EB2-ROW.

That would probably be sufficient to move the COD beyond 01MAY09 at the end of FY2015.

It's also possible that the EB1 approvals will settle down to a more "normal" level.

As I said, it really is too early to make a sensible prediction at this time.

I have updated my predictions on the first page.

Spec,

Does that mean that even in the worst case scenario, the date will come back to May 1 2009 next year in the last quarter also (July to Sep 2015). I ask because my PD is in April 2009 and I am a first time filer this year. I filed on Sep 2 itself and have receipt notices. But I think there is slim to none chance of getting GC this year. In that case, will I still become current in last quarter of 2015 and get a GC next year.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Does that mean that even in the worst case scenario, the date will come back to May 1 2009 next year in the last quarter also (July to Sep 2015). I ask because my PD is in April 2009 and I am a first time filer this year. I filed on Sep 2 itself and have receipt notices. But I think there is slim to none chance of getting GC this year. In that case, will I still become current in last quarter of 2015 and get a GC next year.saagar,

I really don't want to speculate further until a new Inventory is published.

Only then will we have a sufficient grasp of the numbers falling into FY2015.

Since I believe the data in the Inventory lags the published date by several weeks, it may not be until the Jan Inventory that the picture becomes clear. By that time, the PERM Certification rate in FY2015 will also be clearer and we will also know if EB has received any extra allocation from FB around that time.

[iatiam]

I think even in the absolute worst case scenario, the date "at least" advances to May 1, 2009. The reason is that PERM slowdown is made official and most PERM cases from India (and especially those from the upgrade requests) will be caught in the audit and spend close to 2 years there. It is also not unreasonable to expect EB1 to relent despite the gloom and doom. I feel we should reach the end of 2009 by next year.

Amen to that. I know of cases where all the PERM cases in one particular company is in audit. I am sure there are several more cases like that. Also, the porting scenario is not as simple as what picture. I work in a non-IT field where porting a case is very very difficult. In my previous employer (Fortune 10 company) there were strict guidelines against porting. No matter which position you are in, they just won't relent. So a lot of my friends left them to go else where to get their cases ported. Now that's a selective phenomenon where there are plenty of jobs around that the new employer is willing to port. Things might be different in IT field, but I can't comment on that.

Iatiam

[qesehmk]

I agree w Sports IATIAM and others in terms of minimum movement.

However I wouldn't ignore Spec's analysis. I 100% agree with him on EB1 EB5. Where I may disagree a bit is EB2ROW. I believe EB2ROW may not be in as bad shape as Spec suggests. However if EB2ROW PERMs pick up speed then I say Spec is going to be 100% on the money and EB2I has no chance next year.

[anuprab]

Amen to that. I know of cases where all the PERM cases in one particular company is in audit. I am sure there are several more cases like that. Also, the porting scenario is not as simple as what picture. I work in a non-IT field where porting a case is very very difficult. In my previous employer (Fortune 10 company) there were strict guidelines against porting. No matter which position you are in, they just won't relent. So a lot of my friends left them to go else where to get their cases ported. Now that's a selective phenomenon where there are plenty of jobs around that the new employer is willing to port. Things might be different in IT field, but I can't comment on that.

Iatiam

my future looks bleak on this note. As you said I am in finance and porting is very very tough. My husband's is stuck in Eb2 May 2010 date so have been patiently waiting for dates to come to that and there is nothing we both can do about this whole system. Just hoping against hope BO does some executive relief for the legals!

[Spectator]

I agree w Sports IATIAM and others in terms of minimum movement.

However I wouldn't ignore Spec's analysis. I 100% agree with him on EB1 EB5. Where I may disagree a bit is EB2ROW. I believe EB2ROW may not be in as bad shape as Spec suggests. However if EB2ROW PERMs pick up speed then I say Spec is going to be 100% on the money and EB2I has no chance next year.Q,

To be clear, I have presented the worst case. It is not impossible, but probably unlikely. There are some tailwinds from that worst scenario (the something always happens to save EB2-I effect).

Some of the FY2015 demand from EB2-ROW is already baked in due to PERM approvals in Q3/Q4 FY2014. Overall, I expect to see a PERM slowdown, as announced by DOL, which will allow EB2-I to end FY2015 with a COD in Q4 2009.

Before committing to that, I would like to see evidence that such a slowdown is sustained and the extent of carry through of EB2-I cases to FY2015.

I would also like to understand whether the EB1 trend from FY2014 continues into FY2015.

I hope that makes my thoughts clearer and allays some fears that people may have as a result of my previous post.

[qesehmk]

I hope that makes my thoughts clearer and allays some fears that people may have as a result of my previous post.

That's nice of you Spec. Although pessimistic - I do take that scenario seriously. The PERM slowdown has already happened. But at some point of time they will have to clear that backlog too. So make the hay while sun shines - as they say. In other words EB2I can be happy until then. If calendar 2014 ends with the same PERM rate as prior 3 quarters then USCIS year 2015 is going to be decent for EB2I.

As per EB1 - I am quite pessimistic there. They are not affected by PERMs. So fundamentally I don't see anything changing there (as of now) and so I think (exactly as you said) they are going to eat up their own quota and some more.

[Spectator]

On the subject of PERM, the latest fact sheet (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2014_Q4.pdf) was released recently.

Despite the improvement in processing times, the overall backlog is not reducing and remains at a very high level compared to previous periods.


------------ Q1 ------- Q2 ------- Q3 ------- Q4
FY2012 --- 20,900 --- 27,200 --- 28,400 --- 22,900
FY2013 --- 29,344 ---- N/A ------ N/A ------ N/A
FY2014 ---- N/A ----- 58,530 --- 55,427 --- 58,337

DOL did not supply the backlog figure from Q2 FY2013 to Q1 FY2014.
Q4 FY2014 figures are to the end of August.

If the PERM processing times double, I can't even begin to guess at the level the backlog will reach.

[Spectator]

I'm sure many of you would find this article EB-2 India and the Disappointment of the October 2014 Visa Bulletin: “What We’ve Got Here is a Failure to Communicate”* (http://immpolicy.com/2014/09/16/eb-2-india-and-the-disappointment-of-the-october-2014-visa-bulletin-what-weve-got-here-is-a-failure-to-communicate/) interesting.

[imdeng]

Very interesting. It formalizes the speculation regarding Medical RFEs. BTW - the article mentions Sept as the RFE cutoff while RFEs were also issed to folks with Oct 2009 PD.

I'm sure many of you would find this article EB-2 India and the Disappointment of the October 2014 Visa Bulletin: “What We’ve Got Here is a Failure to Communicate”* (http://immpolicy.com/2014/09/16/eb-2-india-and-the-disappointment-of-the-october-2014-visa-bulletin-what-weve-got-here-is-a-failure-to-communicate/) interesting.

[EB2IndSep09]

Nice article wish it covered the shattered hopes of people like me who are yet to file 485. Another genuine try blowing horn to deaf ears.

[civilengineer]

One of the things that the Obama administration could have fixed without needing any help from Congress, but did not.

[zoomzipper]

One of the things that the Obama administration could have fixed without needing any help from Congress, but did not.

Please read http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/01/politics/obama-executive-action-immigration/index.html

"Though some immigration advocates have argued spouses and children shouldn't count toward 140,000 limit on employment-based green cards, whether the President can make that kind of change unilaterally is murky territory."

[vizcard]

Please read http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/01/politics/obama-executive-action-immigration/index.html

"Though some immigration advocates have argued spouses and children shouldn't count toward 140,000 limit on employment-based green cards, whether the President can make that kind of change unilaterally is murky territory."

Yup...recapture is murky too but probably less so.

[civilengineer]

Please read http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/01/politics/obama-executive-action-immigration/index.html

"Though some immigration advocates have argued spouses and children shouldn't count toward 140,000 limit on employment-based green cards, whether the President can make that kind of change unilaterally is murky territory."

I am talking about the article Spec shared. They said DOS and USCIS are not communicating properly. This is well within the president's powers to fix.

[Spectator]

sports,

I totally agree with you.

If better communication meant CO had visibility of upcoming porting demand and approved I-140, he would generally only ever have to move the dates fairly incrementally. There would be no need to move dates drastically forward as he did in 2012. That movement allowed at least 50k people to file I-485 and avail themselves of EAD/AP and potentially I-140 portability at a later date.

There is no such thing as having your cake and eating it.

Similarly, if EO means dates become Current, people will be able to file their I-485, but USCIS processing times will likely stretch to years for a period of time. It's another example of Q's balloon - press it in one place and it pops out the other side.

[suninphx]

It is ironic but this lack of communication is EXACTLY what helped literally 100K+ people to get their EADs.

If 2007 had never happened or 2012 never happened, how many people would hold out the fort?

The current system is good for people who never become current and is bad for a percentage of people who get the shaft when they become current or are about to be current. I got the shaft too (did not get approved yet), but I cannot lose the grand picture.

Also, there might be serious procedural issues to have a more frequent and transparent communication. As outsiders, we might believe such procedural issues do not exist, but when you really get into it, we might discover the situation too difficult to fix without additional funding.

I am not defending the USCIS (I am equally fed up with it with its lack of foresight and transparency); but just pointing out that this system however crooked still helps some people and it might be beyond the presidential powers to fix it. The president for example can increase the I485 fee to 5K to deliver the new look ultra efficient USCIS, but would the beneficiaries bite the cost? Also, if the ultra efficient USCIS means rapid PERM approvals, labor clearance and I485 within a month, that will mean practically 0 spillover for India and will flood the system with new demand from all over the world. Would that be desirable?

What if the USCIS deliberately built in artificial delays and procedural harassment like what we are going through to simply curb demand? Remember we are not the only ones suffering. H1B stamping has turned nightmare (it used to be simple as recent as 2007-08) and getting your PERM approved has become extremely difficult among other things.

Again, this post is not intended to spare the USCIS from well deserved criticism but is rather more reflective.

Sports- great post ...and hope you get greened soon.

[vedu]

Sports,

Excellent post! My PD is in late April 2010 and I was one of the last beneficiaries of the 2012 dates progression. So, I can clearly relate to your post. Now I just need one more good year to cross the final hurdle. Will I be lucky the second time? Who knows....but if not due to another random progression or any other factors, I wouldn't complain a bit.

By the way, hope you get greened very soon!


It is ironic but this lack of communication is EXACTLY what helped literally 100K+ people to get their EADs.

If 2007 had never happened or 2012 never happened, how many people would hold out the fort?

The current system is good for people who never become current and is bad for a percentage of people who get the shaft when they become current or are about to be current. I got the shaft too (did not get approved yet), but I cannot lose the grand picture.

Also, there might be serious procedural issues to have a more frequent and transparent communication. As outsiders, we might believe such procedural issues do not exist, but when you really get into it, we might discover the situation too difficult to fix without additional funding.

I am not defending the USCIS (I am equally fed up with it with its lack of foresight and transparency); but just pointing out that this system however crooked still helps some people and it might be beyond the presidential powers to fix it. The president for example can increase the I485 fee to 5K to deliver the new look ultra efficient USCIS, but would the beneficiaries bite the cost? Also, if the ultra efficient USCIS means rapid PERM approvals, labor clearance and I485 within a month, that will mean practically 0 spillover for India and will flood the system with new demand from all over the world. Would that be desirable?

What if the USCIS deliberately built in artificial delays and procedural harassment like what we are going through to simply curb demand? Remember we are not the only ones suffering. H1B stamping has turned nightmare (it used to be simple as recent as 2007-08) and getting your PERM approved has become extremely difficult among other things.

Again, this post is not intended to spare the USCIS from well deserved criticism but is rather more reflective.

[vizcard]

This is a classic process vs outcome discussion. A bad process can still result in good outcomes. But a good process is more likely to and consistently deliver a good outcome. as a management consultant, this is an interesting problem to solve. :)

To get around his potential communication issue and in lieu of wholesale procedural changes, my personal preference is to issue EAD cards with approved I-140s. That's the only way you get a semblance of relief to back logged countries. For most people an EAD works as well as a green card.

[civilengineer]

It is ironic but this lack of communication is EXACTLY what helped literally 100K+ people to get their EADs.

If 2007 had never happened or 2012 never happened, how many people would hold out the fort?

The current system is good for people who never become current and is bad for a percentage of people who get the shaft when they become current or are about to be current. I got the shaft too (did not get approved yet), but I cannot lose the grand picture.

Also, there might be serious procedural issues to have a more frequent and transparent communication. As outsiders, we might believe such procedural issues do not exist, but when you really get into it, we might discover the situation too difficult to fix without additional funding.

I am not defending the USCIS (I am equally fed up with it with its lack of foresight and transparency); but just pointing out that this system however crooked still helps some people and it might be beyond the presidential powers to fix it. The president for example can increase the I485 fee to 5K to deliver the new look ultra efficient USCIS, but would the beneficiaries bite the cost? Also, if the ultra efficient USCIS means rapid PERM approvals, labor clearance and I485 within a month, that will mean practically 0 spillover for India and will flood the system with new demand from all over the world. Would that be desirable?

What if the USCIS deliberately built in artificial delays and procedural harassment like what we are going through to simply curb demand? Remember we are not the only ones suffering. H1B stamping has turned nightmare (it used to be simple as recent as 2007-08) and getting your PERM approved has become extremely difficult among other things.

Again, this post is not intended to spare the USCIS from well deserved criticism but is rather more reflective.

Thank you. I see your point. In general, for all the talk over 6 years, there has been very little positive contribution from the administration for legals, and that is what I am frustrated about. Not that any other administration would have been any better, but it sure teaches you a lot about politics in this country.

Premium processing for EAD/AP is one easy thing USCIS can add, like H-1B and I-140. There are many people who would be willing to pay the price for it as it helps spouses go to work/start businesses and in some cases, helps kids get in-state tuition rates.
Not sure if there any proposals being floated around for this.

[anuprab]

This is a classic process vs outcome discussion. A bad process can still result in good outcomes. But a good process is more likely to and consistently deliver a good outcome. as a management consultant, this is an interesting problem to solve. :)

To get around his potential communication issue and in lieu of wholesale procedural changes, my personal preference is to issue EAD cards with approved I-140s. That's the only way you get a semblance of relief to back logged countries. For most people an EAD works as well as a green card.

Totally agree with you on this one. Meanwhile my husband was not the lucky one with pd of May 3 2010 so I would be greatly relieved if something like this happened on the other hand I was a beneficiary of the 2007 fiasco! Meanwhile truly appreciate the sheer knowledge of all the experts on this forum and how this forum is "no nonsense get to the point" rarely seen in other forums. While I wish I won't be stalking the forum for more than 2 years I have come to terms that it is what it is....

[Spectator]

sports,

You bring up a very good point about the basis to remain in the USA.

A pending I-485 gives the applicant a period of Authorized Stay, if not legal status. Currently, no such concept exists solely on the basis of having an approved I-140.

The EAD is exactly that - employment authorization. It confers no legal status or authorized stay.

At present, the person using the EAD would lose their H1B status and relying on an approved I-140 would have no legal basis to remain in the USA.

Thus to make such a change to EAD eligibility, this issue would need to be addressed. I'm not sure whether that can happen solely by regulation, or whether a change to the law would be required. Even the "Authorized Stay" for pending AOS is only by virtue of USCIS policy - it is not in any regulation or law. That is a very dangerous situation. USCIS do not have a good record of using the rule making process.

I can see some other problems as well, which I am not going to discuss.

[iatiam]

sports,

You bring up a very good point about the basis to remain in the USA.

A pending I-485 gives the applicant a period of Authorized Stay, if not legal status. Currently, no such concept exists solely on the basis of having an approved I-140.

The EAD is exactly that - employment authorization. It confers no legal status or authorized stay.

At present, the person using the EAD would lose their H1B status and relying on an approved I-140 would have no legal basis to remain in the USA.

Thus to make such a change to EAD eligibility, this issue would need to be addressed. I'm not sure whether that can happen solely by regulation, or whether a change to the law would be required. Even the "Authorized Stay" for pending AOS is only by virtue of USCIS policy - it is not in any regulation or law. That is a very dangerous situation. USCIS do not have a good record of using the rule making process.

I can see some other problems as well, which I am not going to discuss.

Spec,

What about 485 rejection rates? I have heard from you that 485 rejection is an extremely rare event. How much is it percentage-wise? Also, what is the biggest reason for 485 rejection? One of my friends (ROW) went to paper-work hell because USCIS asked him to prove that he maintained status during his student days. He had taken some classes in community college and his school did not keep good records? Is being out of status for more than 180 days a good reason for 485 rejection? Is this data publicly available?

Iatiam

[iatiam]

Spec,

What about 485 rejection rates? I have heard from you that 485 rejection is an extremely rare event. How much is it percentage-wise? Also, what is the biggest reason for 485 rejection? One of my friends (ROW) went to paper-work hell because USCIS asked him to prove that he maintained status during his student days. He had taken some classes in community college and his school did not keep good records? Is being out of status for more than 180 days a good reason for 485 rejection? Is this data publicly available?

Iatiam

Also wanted to add that the term "unlikely" was used by my immigration attorney to describe 485 rejection chances.

[Spectator]

Spec,

What about 485 rejection rates? I have heard from you that 485 rejection is an extremely rare event. How much is it percentage-wise? Also, what is the biggest reason for 485 rejection? One of my friends (ROW) went to paper-work hell because USCIS asked him to prove that he maintained status during his student days. He had taken some classes in community college and his school did not keep good records? Is being out of status for more than 180 days a good reason for 485 rejection? Is this data publicly available?

IatiamIatiam,

According to the data published by USCIS (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all_forms_performancedata_fy2014_qtr3.pdf), the denial rate for Employment Based I-485 in Q1-Q3 FY2014 is 5.6%. It was 6.4% for FY2013. There is no data I know of that further subdivides the denial rate.

If a person has more than 180 days combined time Out Of Status/Unauthorized Employment since their last admission before the the I-485 was submitted, they would be statutorily ineligible to adjust status, since it would be more than that allowed by 245(k). Further time out of status cannot continue to accrue after the I-485 is accepted, but Unauthorized Employment can.

[EB2IndSep09]

Everyone from late 2008-May 2010 (myself included) were the "lucky ones" in that we all got our EADs quickly.

As spec said, we can't have our cake and eat it too. When my GC did not arrive by Sept 10th, I reached an extremely low point. It took me some time to put things back in context. Really speaking, things are not bad for us even if the GC is delayed. My EAD was good enough to port to a great job. My spouse could start working and really has taken off, which has helped us tremendously.

Things could have turned bad. Maybe if the date was moved only incrementally, we might have received out GC just now but we would never have had the EAD for the last 2.5+ years. That scenario is simply unacceptable because we would have lost the opportunities meanwhile. Once I let that sink in, I went peacefully about my business.

Thanks for everyone's wishes. I hope I have approval by October. Even if I don't, it means only one more EAD renewal and there will always be next year :)

P.S. Welcome back Spec!

No offense intended and I am happy for guys like you and your families. Let me elaborate my earlier post, to cheer you up if you do not get your card this year. Also to tell every one not every one between those dates are lucky.

I missed the boat in 2012 as I shifted my job in mid 2011 as the client insisted to join or leave. As the dates were well retrogressed, I joined the client with the agreement that they start my GC right away and port my PD Sep 2009. New employer started GC right away went with the top level Immg Lawyer Fr..Mn and they took their sweet time to file my case (9 months). And with this lack of communication between orgs moved the dates crazy with out proper foresight. My grievance is due to this people like me did not get a fair chance to file 485s at least.

To make things worst, the same year Dec 2011 my wife graduated and she got her OPT for 12 months being a prof masters, filed H1 in Apr 2012 and her LCA was stuck with many others due to some issue that year in DOL so the employer filed her H1 on the last day in person with out Labor in anticipation that Labor would be approved the same day (I do not commend the work though). Employer got the labor approval the same day and got the confirmation the next day. However, she got a RFE and subsequent denial in Nov 2012 saying LCA is not there in org H1 application, employer re-opened a case, with the approved Labor and the case was stuck in limbo. Now the 12 months flew by with the dates tide came and gone, we could not file 485 and her OPT ended she had to take up another prof course and pay what ever she was earning to the new university to do the same degree to keep her status intact. We applied H1 next year 2013 with PP and it got approved, in a week we got rejection of the original H1 filed in the earlier year 2012 saying the LCA got approved 2hrs after they filed H1 petition on the same day (are you nuts??). we did not loose our sanity and cursed no body except our fate.

This year we thought, the dates would move to Oct1 2009 at least based on the RFEs so that we can at least file our 485s. But again it has been a dream.

Now comes the best part, my employer is going to close the office where I am and is asking to move to a new location and is due in Q1 2015. Once it happens, they have to start my process all over again.
I expect the miscomm between orgs would continue and the dates would be moved crazy again one more time when they start my PERM again.

Future, I have kids in High School who are on H4 for whom I need to pay out of state fees once they get into college.

Note: Do not even ask why I shifted job in 2011, it was a take it or leave option which I left once and laid off in 2008 recession with the same client and the ex-employer at that time closed his shop before I get a PD of 2007. I kept long story short.
Also I am the only one who has right to curse my fate :) jk.

[qesehmk]

EB2Ind - that's heartbreaking. Especially with children's status weighing on your mind - I can only imagine what's going through your mind. But kudos to you for posting such a balanced post.


No offense intended and I am happy for guys like you and your families. Let me elaborate my earlier post, to cheer you up if you do not get your card this year. Also to tell every one not every one between those dates are lucky.

I missed the boat in 2012 as I shifted my job in mid 2011 as the client insisted to join or leave. As the dates were well retrogressed, I joined the client with the agreement that they start my GC right away and port my PD Sep 2009. New employer started GC right away went with the top level Immg Lawyer Fr..Mn and they took their sweet time to file my case (9 months). And with this lack of communication between orgs moved the dates crazy with out proper foresight. My grievance is due to this people like me did not get a fair chance to file 485s at least.

To make things worst, the same year Dec 2011 my wife graduated and she got her OPT for 12 months being a prof masters, filed H1 in Apr 2012 and her LCA was stuck with many others due to some issue that year in DOL so the employer filed her H1 on the last day in person with out Labor in anticipation that Labor would be approved the same day (I do not commend the work though). Employer got the labor approval the same day and got the confirmation the next day. However, she got a RFE and subsequent denial in Nov 2012 saying LCA is not there in org H1 application, employer re-opened a case, with the approved Labor and the case was stuck in limbo. Now the 12 months flew by with the dates tide came and gone, we could not file 485 and her OPT ended she had to take up another prof course and pay what ever she was earning to the new university to do the same degree to keep her status intact. We applied H1 next year 2013 with PP and it got approved, in a week we got rejection of the original H1 filed in the earlier year 2012 saying the LCA got approved 2hrs after they filed H1 petition on the same day (are you nuts??). we did not loose our sanity and cursed no body except our fate.

This year we thought, the dates would move to Oct1 2009 at least based on the RFEs so that we can at least file our 485s. But again it has been a dream.

Now comes the best part, my employer is going to close the office where I am and is asking to move to a new location and is due in Q1 2015. Once it happens, they have to start my process all over again.
I expect the miscomm between orgs would continue and the dates would be moved crazy again one more time when they start my PERM again.

Future, I have kids in High School who are on H4 for whom I need to pay out of state fees once they get into college.

Note: Do not even ask why I shifted job in 2011, it was a take it or leave option which I left once and laid off in 2008 recession with the same client and the ex-employer at that time closed his shop before I get a PD of 2007. I kept long story short.
Also I am the only one who has right to curse my fate :) jk.

[Kanmani]

Also, in a very long term, being tied to the "same or similar" restriction could be a very big thorn in the thumb. I am still growing in my career and that won't change in the short term. But 3-5 years from now, I certainly would not be doing what I do today. That time, I will need my green card.



Sports,

Imposing to tie to the same or similar job is where the Department of Labor's part hanging in a single string while applying AC21 portability. Without that one cannot argue that the 'job' described in the perm is bona fide.

While companies intend to sponsor the 'Alien' to get a PR, they in a way promise the DoL that the said job is equally open to local non-aliens, and the selected candidate is an expert in the said field with so and so years of experience performing the job. The company also intends to offer a permanent job to the beneficiary (how long is not the point here).

While the expert is looking to switch job using AC21, the same or similar option proves whether the employer and the beneficiary and the said job are genuine. That is the reason for allowing us to grow in the same field, i.e., to save the basis for the intent. Of course we are free to do what ever we want after GC.

There are other categories which do not require a job offer, I have no knowledge of how they are using AC21 portability.

Caution to all :) This is my personal perspective. No offence intended, feel free to be opposed. I'll not respond.

[CleanSock]

So Murthy estimates the dates to go back to 2005

http://www.murthy.com/2014/09/18/analysis-predictions-and-trends-oct-2014-visa-bulletin-update/

[iatiam]

No offense intended and I am happy for guys like you and your families. Let me elaborate my earlier post, to cheer you up if you do not get your card this year. Also to tell every one not every one between those dates are lucky.

I missed the boat in 2012 as I shifted my job in mid 2011 as the client insisted to join or leave. As the dates were well retrogressed, I joined the client with the agreement that they start my GC right away and port my PD Sep 2009. New employer started GC right away went with the top level Immg Lawyer Fr..Mn and they took their sweet time to file my case (9 months). And with this lack of communication between orgs moved the dates crazy with out proper foresight. My grievance is due to this people like me did not get a fair chance to file 485s at least.

To make things worst, the same year Dec 2011 my wife graduated and she got her OPT for 12 months being a prof masters, filed H1 in Apr 2012 and her LCA was stuck with many others due to some issue that year in DOL so the employer filed her H1 on the last day in person with out Labor in anticipation that Labor would be approved the same day (I do not commend the work though). Employer got the labor approval the same day and got the confirmation the next day. However, she got a RFE and subsequent denial in Nov 2012 saying LCA is not there in org H1 application, employer re-opened a case, with the approved Labor and the case was stuck in limbo. Now the 12 months flew by with the dates tide came and gone, we could not file 485 and her OPT ended she had to take up another prof course and pay what ever she was earning to the new university to do the same degree to keep her status intact. We applied H1 next year 2013 with PP and it got approved, in a week we got rejection of the original H1 filed in the earlier year 2012 saying the LCA got approved 2hrs after they filed H1 petition on the same day (are you nuts??). we did not loose our sanity and cursed no body except our fate.

This year we thought, the dates would move to Oct1 2009 at least based on the RFEs so that we can at least file our 485s. But again it has been a dream.

Now comes the best part, my employer is going to close the office where I am and is asking to move to a new location and is due in Q1 2015. Once it happens, they have to start my process all over again.
I expect the miscomm between orgs would continue and the dates would be moved crazy again one more time when they start my PERM again.

Future, I have kids in High School who are on H4 for whom I need to pay out of state fees once they get into college.

Note: Do not even ask why I shifted job in 2011, it was a take it or leave option which I left once and laid off in 2008 recession with the same client and the ex-employer at that time closed his shop before I get a PD of 2007. I kept long story short.
Also I am the only one who has right to curse my fate :) jk.

EB2India,
Despite these difficulties, I am so happy to see you keep a positive attitude. I was in a similar situation in 2011. Our company management made a massive re-organization and a lot of people hated what they got and that included me. I saw all my colleagues leave the company one after the other. Of course they were all citizens or GC holders. I was feeling desperate and even interviewed a few places. Most of them warned about 12-18 month wait and I decided to stay back. A few months later, dates progressed and I could file for I485.
People may disagree with me, but if you are in a decade long immigration journey, then you might be lucky one day and unlucky some other day. I missed the boat in Aug 2007, but it came back in 2012. If you are persistent enough, things will turn around.
Also we can always go to Q's blog and hang-out.

Iatiam

[gcpursuit]

No offense intended and I am happy for guys like you and your families. Let me elaborate my earlier post, to cheer you up if you do not get your card this year. Also to tell every one not every one between those dates are lucky.

I missed the boat in 2012 as I shifted my job in mid 2011 as the client insisted to join or leave. As the dates were well retrogressed, I joined the client with the agreement that they start my GC right away and port my PD Sep 2009. New employer started GC right away went with the top level Immg Lawyer Fr..Mn and they took their sweet time to file my case (9 months). And with this lack of communication between orgs moved the dates crazy with out proper foresight. My grievance is due to this people like me did not get a fair chance to file 485s at least.

To make things worst, the same year Dec 2011 my wife graduated and she got her OPT for 12 months being a prof masters, filed H1 in Apr 2012 and her LCA was stuck with many others due to some issue that year in DOL so the employer filed her H1 on the last day in person with out Labor in anticipation that Labor would be approved the same day (I do not commend the work though). Employer got the labor approval the same day and got the confirmation the next day. However, she got a RFE and subsequent denial in Nov 2012 saying LCA is not there in org H1 application, employer re-opened a case, with the approved Labor and the case was stuck in limbo. Now the 12 months flew by with the dates tide came and gone, we could not file 485 and her OPT ended she had to take up another prof course and pay what ever she was earning to the new university to do the same degree to keep her status intact. We applied H1 next year 2013 with PP and it got approved, in a week we got rejection of the original H1 filed in the earlier year 2012 saying the LCA got approved 2hrs after they filed H1 petition on the same day (are you nuts??). we did not loose our sanity and cursed no body except our fate.

This year we thought, the dates would move to Oct1 2009 at least based on the RFEs so that we can at least file our 485s. But again it has been a dream.

Now comes the best part, my employer is going to close the office where I am and is asking to move to a new location and is due in Q1 2015. Once it happens, they have to start my process all over again.
I expect the miscomm between orgs would continue and the dates would be moved crazy again one more time when they start my PERM again.

Future, I have kids in High School who are on H4 for whom I need to pay out of state fees once they get into college.

Note: Do not even ask why I shifted job in 2011, it was a take it or leave option which I left once and laid off in 2008 recession with the same client and the ex-employer at that time closed his shop before I get a PD of 2007. I kept long story short.
Also I am the only one who has right to curse my fate :) jk.

I could very much relate to you. Hope everything falls in place soon. I have a similar story except that I dont have kids in high school.
My NIW got rejected once in 2007. Applied for regular EB2 with PD June 2009. Changed employer in Jan 2011 and the attorney did a mistake in the H1b that the job requires Bachelor where as my employer's requirements that I got from the recruiter had Masters. Due to the inconsistency, I changed jobs again in june 2011 and move half way across the country when my wife was almost due for labor. Missed boat in 2012. My original employer was willing to continue my application through CP. We tried but dates retrogressed.My wife's H1b is expiring next november. Here we are still waiting... I am hoping we would at least get EADs before my wife's h1b expiration. Let us see how that one goes.

[YTeleven]

Here is some effort made to see when will be the next inventory built up can happen for EB2-I from the inventory level perspective.
I've projected I-485 EB2 values for next 5 inventories how they look like based on my understanding of the datapointers which USCIS/DOS/DOL provided so far.
I see there will be a favorable numbers similar to 1-OCT-2011 inventory numbers right after the midnight 30-Sep-2015.
Now question is how will CO will react to building the inventory for EB2-I is a big question, the external factors will not be similar to what we had on 01-OCT-2011.
So he may do it in FY16Q1 or FY16Q4 but for sure it will happen sometime in FY16. When that happens I'm expecting he will take at the minimum 35k new applications so we can see at the least the dates will move to FY11Q3.

I'm sorry for FY12 & FY13 EB2-I guys whose GC dream has become a vision 2020 now.
For FY14 and new filers from India my only suggestion is to consider EB3-I instaed of EB2-I you may get atleast EAD before 2020 unless BO does something in EO.

Gurus,
feel free to comment on the graph, as I'm projecting this based on past statistics and current trends I'm at liberty to ignore some fundamentals.
we will track these projected values with the actual values when they get released and see where are we in next 12 months but I'm quiet confident this is what will happen by the end of FY15.

I tried uploading the image to the blog but I ran out of allocated space quota on this site.
Here is the link to the image :
I485-India_InventoryLevelProjectionsFor01-OCT-2015.PNG (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92WUYyTUw0ZTZzdFE/edit?usp=sharing)

[EB2IndSep09]

Thank you Q, iatiam for empathizing and for your compliments. Didn't mean to use the forum to vent out my grievance but as well said by iatiam, this is a place where we see real people, real problems, efforts to help and above all people hang out and share good and bad news. That's what life is after all.

Here you go... gcpursuit is also there in the same boat. Glad I did not pose as if I am the only one in a mess up :). Good to know that you do not have kids in high school as at that age they know everything and it is hard for them to sink in especially when they have spent a decade here like any other normal kids. Wish you good luck gcpursuit!

I am close to a decade inline but do not know if by 2016 my new perm would be approved as my employer would not start the PERM till the time I am moved to new place in Q1 2015 and with all back lag we are experiencing.

Wish immigration System has been built on some basic ethics of penal system 'Let hundred guilty be acquitted but one innocent should not be punished'. I second to some one who said here earlier GC2All.

[Kanmani]

. Now comes the best part, my employer is going to close the office where I am and is asking to move to a new location and is due in Q1 2015. Once it happens, they have to start my process all over again.
jk.

jk, I am sorry for your situation. By any chance u fall under I-140 amendment alone but not to start all over again? I heard someone from this forum faced the same situation, moving to different location with the same employer, not sure how he resolved it.

[EB2IndSep09]

jk, I am sorry for your situation. By any chance u fall under I-140 amendment alone but not to start all over again? I heard someone from this forum faced the same situation, moving to different location with the same employer, not sure how he resolved it.
I would be more than happy to get more details of that Kanmani. But what I heard back from legal dept is they need to start over again.
Also the move would be with in the same state but to a diff Metropolitan Stats Area.

[qesehmk]

I would be more than happy to get more details of that Kanmani. But what I heard back from legal dept is they need to start over again.
Also the move would be with in the same state but to a diff Metropolitan Stats Area.
They can start all over but your PD should be locked in now. Is it not? That way your total wait time should still be 2009+6/7 years (depending on how soon the PERM is processed).

[YTeleven]

If anybody is interested to see where is the EB3-India I485 ineventory levels heading.
Here is the link:
EB3-India I485 Inventory level decrease and its trend to future.PNG (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92X1g4WHl0czc2WUE/edit?usp=sharing)

[CleanSock]

gcpursuit and EB2IndSep09,
Whenever i hear stories like yours, I feel what some other people are going through including me is nothing compared to what you both have gone through/are going through. These are the reasons why US government should pass legislations to such as giving EAD with I140 approval and removing dependents from the overall quota. These changes would only benefit the country as it would give many people a reason to go to other countries looking for stability. There may be many people having American Dream but there are many who are returning back to India or moving to another country fed up of this instability.

I truly wish and hope that you guys get your GC soon.



No offense intended and I am happy for guys like you and your families. Let me elaborate my earlier post, to cheer you up if you do not get your card this year. Also to tell every one not every one between those dates are lucky.

I missed the boat in 2012 as I shifted my job in mid 2011 as the client insisted to join or leave. As the dates were well retrogressed, I joined the client with the agreement that they start my GC right away and port my PD Sep 2009. New employer started GC right away went with the top level Immg Lawyer Fr..Mn and they took their sweet time to file my case (9 months). And with this lack of communication between orgs moved the dates crazy with out proper foresight. My grievance is due to this people like me did not get a fair chance to file 485s at least.

To make things worst, the same year Dec 2011 my wife graduated and she got her OPT for 12 months being a prof masters, filed H1 in Apr 2012 and her LCA was stuck with many others due to some issue that year in DOL so the employer filed her H1 on the last day in person with out Labor in anticipation that Labor would be approved the same day (I do not commend the work though). Employer got the labor approval the same day and got the confirmation the next day. However, she got a RFE and subsequent denial in Nov 2012 saying LCA is not there in org H1 application, employer re-opened a case, with the approved Labor and the case was stuck in limbo. Now the 12 months flew by with the dates tide came and gone, we could not file 485 and her OPT ended she had to take up another prof course and pay what ever she was earning to the new university to do the same degree to keep her status intact. We applied H1 next year 2013 with PP and it got approved, in a week we got rejection of the original H1 filed in the earlier year 2012 saying the LCA got approved 2hrs after they filed H1 petition on the same day (are you nuts??). we did not loose our sanity and cursed no body except our fate.

This year we thought, the dates would move to Oct1 2009 at least based on the RFEs so that we can at least file our 485s. But again it has been a dream.

Now comes the best part, my employer is going to close the office where I am and is asking to move to a new location and is due in Q1 2015. Once it happens, they have to start my process all over again.
I expect the miscomm between orgs would continue and the dates would be moved crazy again one more time when they start my PERM again.

Future, I have kids in High School who are on H4 for whom I need to pay out of state fees once they get into college.

Note: Do not even ask why I shifted job in 2011, it was a take it or leave option which I left once and laid off in 2008 recession with the same client and the ex-employer at that time closed his shop before I get a PD of 2007. I kept long story short.
Also I am the only one who has right to curse my fate :) jk.

[vizcard]

For those waiting for EAD approvals (first time or renewals), Murthy has published an article saying that there could be delays in processing.

http://www.murthy.com/2014/09/17/eads-delays-filing-and-follow-up-suggestions/

[anuprab]

After reading some of the stories here I feel I have no right to complain . I cannot imagine the stress especially with having kids on h4 status too. Kudos for braving all of this, hopefully we all get what we want someday in the near future. Thanks to all for posting their journey here although I feel no one deserves this kind of wait but that's the price we are paying by choice to stay in this country !

[Spectator]

Murthy has also published an article (http://www.murthy.com/2014/09/18/analysis-predictions-and-trends-oct-2014-visa-bulletin-update/) that consolidates the various pieces of information from the recent monthly meeting with CO.

[saagar_is_cool]

No offense intended and I am happy for guys like you and your families. Let me elaborate my earlier post, to cheer you up if you do not get your card this year. Also to tell every one not every one between those dates are lucky.

I missed the boat in 2012 as I shifted my job in mid 2011 as the client insisted to join or leave. As the dates were well retrogressed, I joined the client with the agreement that they start my GC right away and port my PD Sep 2009. New employer started GC right away went with the top level Immg Lawyer Fr..Mn and they took their sweet time to file my case (9 months). And with this lack of communication between orgs moved the dates crazy with out proper foresight. My grievance is due to this people like me did not get a fair chance to file 485s at least.

To make things worst, the same year Dec 2011 my wife graduated and she got her OPT for 12 months being a prof masters, filed H1 in Apr 2012 and her LCA was stuck with many others due to some issue that year in DOL so the employer filed her H1 on the last day in person with out Labor in anticipation that Labor would be approved the same day (I do not commend the work though). Employer got the labor approval the same day and got the confirmation the next day. However, she got a RFE and subsequent denial in Nov 2012 saying LCA is not there in org H1 application, employer re-opened a case, with the approved Labor and the case was stuck in limbo. Now the 12 months flew by with the dates tide came and gone, we could not file 485 and her OPT ended she had to take up another prof course and pay what ever she was earning to the new university to do the same degree to keep her status intact. We applied H1 next year 2013 with PP and it got approved, in a week we got rejection of the original H1 filed in the earlier year 2012 saying the LCA got approved 2hrs after they filed H1 petition on the same day (are you nuts??). we did not loose our sanity and cursed no body except our fate.

This year we thought, the dates would move to Oct1 2009 at least based on the RFEs so that we can at least file our 485s. But again it has been a dream.

Now comes the best part, my employer is going to close the office where I am and is asking to move to a new location and is due in Q1 2015. Once it happens, they have to start my process all over again.
I expect the miscomm between orgs would continue and the dates would be moved crazy again one more time when they start my PERM again.

Future, I have kids in High School who are on H4 for whom I need to pay out of state fees once they get into college.

Note: Do not even ask why I shifted job in 2011, it was a take it or leave option which I left once and laid off in 2008 recession with the same client and the ex-employer at that time closed his shop before I get a PD of 2007. I kept long story short.
Also I am the only one who has right to curse my fate :) jk.

Eb2Ind, I share your grievance. After a long ordeal taking chances with possible deportation, I finally got a chance to file for 485 on Sep 2nd. I made sure the lawyer got it filed on Sep 2 itself :) All I want to say is, it will all turn out to be good and with few exceptions, there is always a happy ending. Hang in there and I am pretty sure that you will get greened very soon.

[bikenlalan]

I see from trackitt data that there are 994 EB2-I approvals from August until today. I have heard that trackitt represents around 7% of the actual approval count. This comes out to ~14000 visas issued to EB2-I.

Also between Oct-2013 and June 2014, I see 710 approved which comes out to ~10000 approvals. July 2014 approvals stand at 208.
So total visas issued to EB2-I ~(14000+10000+3000=27000). Do you think EB2-I received around 24000 spill over this FY? I am assuming trackitt representation must be higher than 7% and some visas issued in Oct 2013 must be from previous FY quota. But then the approvals dried out around middle of September last year.

[Spectator]

I see from trackitt data that there are 994 EB2-I approvals from August until today. I have heard that trackitt represents around 7% of the actual approval count. This comes out to ~14000 visas issued to EB2-I.

Also between Oct-2013 and June 2014, I see 710 approved which comes out to ~10000 approvals. July 2014 approvals stand at 208.
So total visas issued to EB2-I ~(14000+10000+3000=27000). Do you think EB2-I received around 24000 spill over this FY? I am assuming trackitt representation must be higher than 7% and some visas issued in Oct 2013 must be from previous FY quota. But then the approvals dried out around middle of September last year.bikenlalan,

I think 7% is a little low these days.

The % even changed between October/November 2013 and July 2014 because so many people added their cases to Trackitt after then.

Currently, I would estimate that EB2-I has received around 19k approvals (16k SO) for FY2014. I could be out by a few '000 either way.

I don't think that number will change significantly during the remainder of the FY.

I'd be interested to hear what number other people believe is the correct figure.

[civilengineer]

saagar_is_cool My story is similar but not as miserable, I think. I came in 2000 to do an MS and started working in 2002. The company started GC processing in 2004 October but those days there was no PERM and labor used to take much longer. By 2006 I decided to not wait for GC any longer and just switched jobs for better career prospects. That was a good move professionally, but immigration process got screwed up as I could not retain priority date and the new company delayed filing and filed in EB3 finally in 2008. They refused to file in EB2 as it was no benefit to them and I cannot legally pay for it myself. I missed the 2007 and 2012 buses and finally changed jobs again. Now finally after 14 years, I am going to get my EAD in the mail tomorrow. It looks like USCIS is not issuing my wife's EAD yet, which is messed up and random, but hopefully that will go through as well this month.
Sorry for taking over this thread with stories guys, but these are "slow news" days anyway, so hopefully nobody has issues with it.
One suggestion for Eb2IndSep09 --> look into filing EAD for your kids under Obama's executive action for DREAMers. They may be eligible, but I am not sure.

[flexan]

bikenlalan,

I think 7% is a little low these days.

The % even changed between October/November 2013 and July 2014 because so many people added their cases to Trackitt after then.

Currently, I would estimate that EB2-I has received around 19k approvals (16k SO) for FY2014. I could be out by a few '000 either way.

I don't think that number will change significantly during the remainder of the FY.

I'd be interested to hear what number other people believe is the correct figure.

Does this mean we can expect any sort of inventory buildup for FY 2015?

[YTeleven]

bikenlalan,

I think 7% is a little low these days.

The % even changed between October/November 2013 and July 2014 because so many people added their cases to Trackitt after then.

Currently, I would estimate that EB2-I has received around 19k approvals (16k SO) for FY2014. I could be out by a few '000 either way.

I don't think that number will change significantly during the remainder of the FY.

I'd be interested to hear what number other people believe is the correct figure.

Back in April, I had projected that EB2-I could recieve a total of 21k visas in FY14 and based on that number I arrived at Apr'09 COD by end of FY14.
I'm still sticking to that number, a total of 21k for EB2-I in FY14.
Here is the post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2474-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2014?p=52317#post52317

[Spectator]

YT,

Thanks for your thoughts.

I too thought that was a possible figure at one point, but the continued increased EB1 approvals and a slight upturn in EB2-WW knocked the figure down. I'd always assumed EB5 would pretty much use their entire allocation.

If I have erred on one side or another, it would be to the low end. A figure as high as 21k is certainly possible, particularly if EB1 are lower than I believe (which is in the error margin I would ascribe to that figure, given the paucity of data).

[skpanda]

YT,

Thanks for your thoughts.

I too thought that was a possible figure at one point, but the continued increased EB1 approvals and a slight upturn in EB2-WW knocked the figure down. I'd always assumed EB5 would pretty much use their entire allocation.

If I have erred on one side or another, it would be slightly to the lower end. I couldn't rule out your 21k estimate.


If we got 20K (+ or -), balance inventory is about 10K. CO does not have visibility on Porting and Consular processing cases. Wondering why he is not doing a inventory build up now? (Like he did in 2012 - at that time i think the dates were moved when the inventory was around 9K)

Am i missing something? What has changed?

[skpanda]

We received close to 7K in October-November 2013. That completely cleaned the inventory up to June 2008.

Going forward, we had about 14K until May 1, 2009. Out of which, 11-12K are greened. Some 2-3K are pending.

The date was already pushed enough to avoid visa wastage.

Finally, 10K was the inventory in 2008. The pending inventory until May 1, 2010 was more like 30K. After this year, it should drop down to 20K (14K out of the system, 4K more in the system). If FY2015 turns out to be a good year for spillover (unfortunately, the possibility is already low for this), an inventory buildup might happen. But remember we need 23K for this. The 3K quota will most likely be used in October to finish the remaining cases until May 1, 2009.

Sorry i am bit confused.

If you say by Oct 2014, PD upto 1st May 2009 will be greened, from the inventory we will have 13,344 pending cases (May 2009 to May 2010). I do understand the below:

1. This number going down in FY2015 will completely depend on spillover (Annual quota is gone in oct 14)
2. Porting could be additional 3 to 5 K
3. Consular processing will also need to be taken into account.

So is your 23K includes porting and consular processing also? If not, from pending inventory the number should be 13.5K.

Thanks for your time!

[bikenlalan]

But I guess we do not need 21k if the inventory is going to be around 25k. Last time when build up happened, there were about 8-9k in inventory when CO started building the pipeline. I guess we would need 14-15k SO for CO to move dates forward.

[skpanda]

Does anybody have a link to the thread that shows the SOFAD that we got year on year (may be since 2008). Appreciate your help!

[imdeng]

Spec's Gold Standard Effort is here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards


Does anybody have a link to the thread that shows the SOFAD that we got year on year (may be since 2008). Appreciate your help!

[Spectator]

Does anybody have a link to the thread that shows the SOFAD that we got year on year (may be since 2008). Appreciate your help!sk,

Here you go (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards).

Some points to ponder on.

Not every EB2-I approval will have resulted in a reduction in the USCIS Inventory.

When CO last moved the dates in 2012, he thought at the time that more numbers would be available to EB2-I than eventually was the case. USCIS had told him that EB1 approvals would be very low, which was not the case. If we are moving into a period of lower SO (and depending on the timing), he may not feel the need to move the COD until the demand is lower. He got burnt last time and I don't think he will forget that.

There have been a large number of new applications within the CODs that were in effect from July 2014 onwards (several '000 possibly).

I think there will be rather more than 3k "old" cases within the 01MAY09 COD going into October 2014. I don't think they will all be cleared in October.

YT's estimation of about 18k inventory after October (and use of the 3k allocation) looks about right. To that, you could also add some more porting cases that don't appear in the Inventory.

I think it will be quite difficult to go into "Inventory Building Mode" at the end of FY2015.

[skpanda]

sk,

Here you go (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards).

Some points to ponder on.

Not every EB2-I approval will have resulted in a reduction in the USCIS Inventory.

When CO last moved the dates in 2012, he thought at the time that more numbers would be available to EB2-I than eventually was the case. USCIS had told him that EB1 approvals would be very low, which was not the case. If we are moving into a period of lower SO (and depending on the timing), he may not feel the need to move the COD until the demand is lower. He got burnt last time and I don't think he will forget that.

There have been a large number of new applications within the CODs that were in effect from July 2014 onwards (several '000 possibly).

I think there will be rather more than 3k "old" cases within the 01MAY09 COD going into October 2014. I don't think they will all be cleared in October.

YT's estimation of about 18k inventory after October (and use of the 3k allocation) looks about right. To that, you could also add some more porting cases that don't appear in the Inventory.

I think it will be quite difficult to go into "Inventory Building Mode" at the end of FY2015.



Thanks!

It would hurt if there is no inventory build up in FY2015. But then it is what it is.

If we do not get atleast 10K in FY2015, it will be the worst year since 2008. Hope that does not happen!

[MATT2012]

sk,

Here you go (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards).


I think it will be quite difficult to go into "Inventory Building Mode" at the end of FY2015.100% agree with that statement, at least I do not see a combination(except through some legislative or executive action!!) that would deplete the EB2I inventory next fiscal to get into a full fledged inventory building mode.

[07jul2011]

Hi Gurus,

My PD is July 2011 in EB2 I.

I'm working for a consulting company and working for its client(no other layers). I'm on 9th year of H1B (3 yr approval based on I-140). My client made a good offer to me and I'm thinking of joining them. However, this client won't start the GC untill I complete 1 year with them and as you know the PERM process is very slow. So it could take about 2 to 2.5 years before I get I-140 approval if I choose my client's job offer. My concerns are

1. If the H4 EAD rule comes, does it allow the spouse to get EAD even though we are not with the previous employer(consulting firm)? I mean based on the current consulting firm's I-140 after joining the client company? I know the rule is not finalized and no one is sure if it will even come or not...still since we can use the previous I-140 for retaining PD/renewing H1, do you think is this something we can count on?

2. Once I leave the consulting firm, they won't proceed the GC. But is there any hope for EAD before early 2017 for mid 2011 folks?

Thanks...
Have a great weekend.

[jimmys]

100% agree with that statement, at least I do not see a combination(except through some legislative or executive action!!) that would deplete the EB2I inventory next fiscal to get into a full fledged inventory building mode.

If needed they can advance a few months to generate a few thousands of applications. Hope they don't move a few years back and forth to screw late 2009 PDers forever.