EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[rka_72]

Are the approvals happening based on the PD or on the basis of RD (or RD for RFER) for those who are current? The trend seems to be that, but seen some approvals for Dec'2008 already and at random too.

[vizcard]

Are the approvals happening based on the PD or on the basis of RD (or RD for RFER) for those who are current? The trend seems to be that, but seen some approvals for Dec'2008 already and at random too.

I was looking for that too. Comparing to my particular situation there have been ppl with PDs before mine (8/20) for the most part (I'm talking TSC only) and RFERD seem to be around my date (6/12) +/- 2 weeks OR no RFEs at all.

[imdeng]

Calm before the storm.... fingers crossed for 01NOV2009 :-)

[gten20]

Calm before the storm.... fingers crossed for 01NOV2009 :-)
Mera number kab aayega? :cool:

[Spectator]

I know they are not a great indicator.

NSC

I-485 -- Application to Register Permanent Residence or to Adjust Status -- Employment-based adjustment applications -- 4 Months

TSC

I-485 -- Application to Register Permanent Residence or to Adjust Status -- Employment-based adjustment applications -- February 25, 2014 (4 Months 5 Days)

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplay.do

[Pundit Arjun]

Calm before the storm.... fingers crossed for 01NOV2009 :-)

imdeng,
Now we know why you removed the Optimistic and Pessimistic dates from your signature ;) - LOL. Good positive thinking - I am with my fingers crossed as well.
Goodluck and hope we all get greened soon.

[vizcard]

imdeng,
Now we know why you removed the Optimistic and Pessimistic dates from your signature ;) - LOL. Good positive thinking - I am with my fingers crossed as well.
Goodluck and hope we all get greened soon.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed too ........and i have an Aug 2008 PD :P

I'm in the final round of interviews with 3 companies - 2 of them would be tricky to explain in an AC21 scenario.

[aquatican]

Does the bulletin come out next week?


imdeng,
Now we know why you removed the Optimistic and Pessimistic dates from your signature ;) - LOL. Good positive thinking - I am with my fingers crossed as well.
Goodluck and hope we all get greened soon.

[cursedguy]

Tomorrow, Most likely.

[vizcard]

Does the bulletin come out next week?


Tomorrow, Most likely.

tomorrow or Monday latest.

[edisonguy]

tomorrow or Monday latest.


Tomorrow for sure

[geterdone]

Calm before the storm.... fingers crossed for 01NOV2009 :-)

the big question is whether it will be a category 1 or bigger storm or just a tropical storm

Do you think if the dates move forward they will send out RFE to more applicants or have they covered more than what they can take?

[edisonguy]

Big time..everything is just a guess..no standard rule.


the big question is whether it will be a category 1 or bigger storm or just a tropical storm

Do you think if the dates move forward they will send out RFE to more applicants or have they covered more than what they can take?

[imdeng]

I don't think they have any need to send RFEs beyond 01NOV2009 - they have enough cases up to then to clear this year and leave enough behind that visas are not wasted.

the big question is whether it will be a category 1 or bigger storm or just a tropical storm

Do you think if the dates move forward they will send out RFE to more applicants or have they covered more than what they can take?

[rka_72]

NSC has now started approving 2009. TSC is still stuck at Aug 2008 only. The way NSC is going, visas are going to run out....for TSC guys....any knows if TSC guys are back from vacation or not :(

[edisonguy]

who said they are in vacation..looks like they are in sleep


NSC has now started approving 2009. TSC is still stuck at Aug 2008 only. The way NSC is going, visas are going to run out....for TSC guys....any knows if TSC guys are back from vacation or not :(

[helooo]

User knoxtn on trackit says he got approved from TSC.He is first time filer and did FP on August 1st.It is concurrent filing(I140/485 together).Below is the link

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1428423833/july-2014-eb2i-new-filers-let-us-track/page/36

[rka_72]

A trackitt user with last date of the Aug bulletin got greened today..1/21/2009...what a lucky chap....that too from TSC...bhagwan jaane TSC ka logic kya hai....happy for the one who got greened but disgusted with TSC's approach

[la_2002_ch]

Maybe LIFO... definitely not FIFO


A trackitt user with last date of the Aug bulletin got greened today..1/21/2009...what a lucky chap....that too from TSC...bhagwan jaane TSC ka logic kya hai....happy for the one who got greened but disgusted with TSC's approach

Sorry for the not so relevant post. please feel free to delete if need be, but seeing the word logic, i couldn't resist myself. Reminded me of the hostel days back in India.

[SONU77]

Viz,

Are we seeing approvals for folks whose status changed to IR after RFERR? Just curious to see if there is any obvious pattern visible from the recent 2014 EB2-I approvals since July 1st?

[vizcard]

Viz,

Are we seeing approvals for folks whose status changed to IR after RFERR? Just curious to see if there is any obvious pattern visible from the recent 2014 EB2-I approvals since July 1st?

No idea. I certainly hope that's not the case as mine has stayed at RFERR.

[triplet]

No idea. I certainly hope that's not the case as mine has stayed at RFERR.

Mine has been stuck in RFERR but you've been current for more than a month. Hope you get an approval soon, a lot of approvals have been in July/Aug. Have you contacted your Senator or are you waiting a bit longer to see what happens. It would suck for 2008 filers like us to not get it in this cycle, but we have another 60-90 days

[vizcard]

Mine has been stuck in RFERR but you've been current for more than a month. Hope you get an approval soon, a lot of approvals have been in July/Aug. Have you contacted your Senator or are you waiting a bit longer to see what happens. It would suck for 2008 filers like us to not get it in this cycle, but we have another 60-90 days

I haven't contacted my Senator yet. My 60 calendar days ends Aug 12 and 60 business days end Aug 15. So I'll probably wait till the end of this week to raise hell. This week is brutal at work anyway so hopefully it'll take my mind off this.

[vyruss]

Your case is really starting to worry me (not for your sake, but mine).

I am sure you will get the GC in a few days, but I am wondering what the fate of applications like mine will be.

I am hoping the approvals pick up fast. If they don't, we really don't have as much spillover as anticipated. I guess the September bulletin will clarify this. I am really hoping for a big movement.

USCIS is on track to create PWMB version 2.0. The RFEs were issued randomly, the RFE review looks random and the approval has never been this random.

[helpful_leo]

I am hoping the approvals pick up fast. If they don't, we really don't have as much spillover as anticipated. I guess the September bulletin will clarify this. I am really hoping for a big movement.

Sorry if this is a newbie Q but how does movement in Sept bulletin indicate spillover #s?

And say there is not much further PD movement in Sept VB (I hope not for others sake), but how does that affect approval chances for those who are already current (up to at least PD Jan 22, 09)?

[helpful_leo]

If the date stays put, that means they are tight on numbers. They can internally retrogress any time in September (this happened around mid September last year). They will issue GCs to folks in October but it remains to be seen the extent to which they will burn the numbers so early in the FY.

if the date moves OTOH, it means they have plentiful numbers, so folks like me who will only get a chance to send an RFE response by next week will have a very good chance to get greened.

Thanks - makes sense.
I hope likewise, as I am 2 months behind you in terms of PD, but with an earlier RFER date.

It might turn out this arbitrary policy change regarding termination of medicals screwed us all by jacking up TSCs workload and hampering their (minimal) efficiency!

[Kanmani]

In my case, I believe sending AC21 papers last year was a bad idea. If I ever get some more info on why I didn't receive the mass RFE in May/June itself, I will post it here. However from trackitt, I could figure out a decent set of people who were without RFEs and this was one of the reasons.



Sportsfan, believe it or not, it is all random. As per the personal data collection from friends and friends' friends', sending AC21 papers has no role in the chaos happening right now.

Did you analyze the RFE pattern with RD? Are you a Jan 2012 filer? My memory says, you or your family were in India that time(?)

I think cases might have been handed over to new/partially trained/half baked officers. As some one suggested DACA cases are in the fore front right now and looks like there is a meeting scheduled to discuss about those DACA cases with the new USCIS Director.

[helpful_leo]

I agree there should be some semblance though. Vizcard has a straight EB2I case and has responded to the mass RFE back in June. He should have been greened by now. I am seriously wondering why the TSC is holding his case until now.


There are a couple of others on Trackitt like Viz, current since July 1 and RFER near or past 60 days. Incidentally, someone with PD Jan 7, 2009, RD 3/10/12 and RFE sent date 7/10/14 (user name 'susarch') got approved at TSC!

And then when one compares TSC vs NSC, it gets all the more annoying.

I think for a process that even in its normal course takes a numbing 6 years + for approval, USCIS should be compelled to adopt a more transparent and accountable process so that just because TSC has workflow issues, its customers cannot be forced to wait an extra year or two!

[cursedguy]

There are a couple of others on Trackitt like Viz, current since July 1 and RFER near or past 60 days. Incidentally, someone with PD Jan 7, 2009, RD 3/10/12 and RFE sent date 7/10/14 (user name 'susarch') got approved at TSC!

And then when one compares TSC vs NSC, it gets all the more annoying.

I think for a process that even in its normal course takes a numbing 6 years + for approval, USCIS should be compelled to adopt a more transparent and accountable process so that just because TSC has workflow issues, its customers cannot be forced to wait an extra year or two!

Unfortunately, they are two reasons for this:

1. TSC has less staff vs NSC
2. Majority of the DACA cases fall under TSC jurisdiction because they are border states.
When they changed the law for DACA they(congress/president) obviously did not think of providing more resources to process DACA applications.

[vizcard]

Unfortunately, they are two reasons for this:

1. TSC has less staff vs NSC
2. Majority of the DACA cases fall under TSC jurisdiction because they are border states.
When they changed the law for DACA they(congress/president) obviously did not think of providing more resources to process DACA applications.

...... and Obama is thinking of giving EADs to illegals. Guess where most of them are :)

[Spectator]

2. Majority of the DACA cases fall under TSC jurisdiction because they are border states.
When they changed the law for DACA they(congress/president) obviously did not think of providing more resources to process DACA applications.Not sure that is true.

I had a quick look at the number of DACA cases accepted (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/DACA/I821d_daca_fy2014qtr2.pdf) by State and the Filing Lockbox address (http://www.uscis.gov/i-821d-addresses) for that State.

For those that have more than 10k cases (about 80% of all cases) the numbers are:

Chicago -- 245,744
Phoenix -- 206,253
Dallas --- 190,658

That doesn't suggest Texas are overburdened compared to Nebraska.

Edit:- Updated with figures for all States.

[cursedguy]

Not sure that is true.

I had a quick look at the number of DACA cases accepted (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/DACA/I821d_daca_fy2014qtr2.pdf) by State and the Filing Lockbox address (http://www.uscis.gov/i-821d-addresses) for that State.

For those that have more than 10k cases (about 80% of all cases) the numbers are:

Chicago -- 179,768
Phoenix -- 206,253
Dallas --- 132,318

That doesn't suggest Texas are overburdened compared to Nebraska.

Fair Disclosure :- Phoenix only deals with Arizona and California so their complete total is shown above. The Chicago and Dallas numbers will be larger than shown (sharing another 124k between them) for all States, but I don't have the will do all 50 States. Ultimately, no lockbox is likely to have significantly more than any other.


I may be wrong but border states have more requests..

http://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/immigration/2014/05/19/new-deferred-action-statistics-may-hold-key-implications-future-legalization

California 162,007 29%
Texas 88,106 16%
Illinois 30,982 6%
New York 28,414 5%
Florida 22,021 4%
Arizona 19,990 4%
North Carolina 19,883 4%
Georgia 17,356 3%
New Jersey 15,681 3%
Colorado 12,132 2%


Of the 553,197 applications approved to date, 427,653, or 77 percent, are originally from Mexico, with several other Latin American countries making up the remaining top 10 countries of origin of DACA approvals. California is home to the most DACA recipients, with 29 percent of the 553,197 approved. Texas, Illinois, New York and Florida follow with a combined 31 percent.

So I think TSC = 88106 + 22021 +19883+17356 (Texax, FL, NC, GA) = 147366
where NSC = 30982 + 12132 (IL, CO) = 43114

It seems TSC is processing more than 3 times compared to NSC but the Top processing center is California.

Let me know if something is wrong.. :)

EDIT: I see the difference now between our calculations, I think the lockbox service just sorts your application and forwards the application to the correct service center (they dont process it). I'm assuming they have to be processed at CSC, TSC, NSC or VSC right ?

[Spectator]

Of course the border states have more requests, but that does not mean TSC handle the cases.

You need to look at the filing address (http://www.uscis.gov/i-821d-addresses) to see where the cases are likely to be processed. Just because they are border states does not mean they are processed at TSC.

I have updated my previous post with the totals for each lockbox for all states and territories. I'll reproduce it here:

Chicago -- 245,744
Phoenix -- 206,253
Dallas --- 190,658

Phoenix lockbox generally goes to NSC
Dallas lockbox generally goes to TSC
Chicago lockbox generally goes to Chicago (or wherever the FB cases are processed (not NSC or TSC)).

[cursedguy]

Of course the border states have more requests, but that does not mean TSC handle the cases.

You need to look at the filing address (http://www.uscis.gov/i-821d-addresses) to see where the cases are likely to be processed. Just because they are border states does not mean they are processed at TSC.

I have updated my previous post with the totals for each lockbox for all states and territories. I'll reproduce it here:

Chicago -- 245,744
Phoenix -- 206,253
Dallas --- 190,658

Phoenix lockbox generally goes to NSC
Dallas lockbox generally goes to TSC
Chicago lockbox generally goes to Chicago (or wherever the FB cases are processed (not NSC or TSC)).

DACA
Requests Filed
with USCIS :
USCIS will process all DACA requests, regardless of whether the individual
is in removal proceedings (unless the individual is in immigration detention
under the custody of ICE) or subject to a final order of removal. Depending
on when the order was issued, this could be an order of deportation, exclusion
or removal. A complete DACA package consists of concurrently filed Forms
I-821D, Consideration of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals and I-765,
Application for Employment Authorization, with the worksheet, Form I-
765WS. Forms I-821D and I-765 must be filed concurrently. DACA requests
will be adjudicated by all four Service Centers.

Somebody already used FOIA to find out how they process the applications. Page 18 - it says the applications are processes at all Four service centers but doesnt say what logic they use to send the applications to those service centers - So I rest my case :), I assumed it is by jurisdiction of the service centers.

http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2013-HQFO-00304-First-Interim-Release-Package.pdf

[Spectator]

cursedguy,

I think I have already shown you the logic USCIS use to process requests.

Rather than overburden a single SC which happens to be geographically closer to the majority of requests, USCIS has designated where to file the request by State. This ensures a fairly even distribution of processing across the SCs based on their processing capacity.

If it doesn't, USCIS can reroute some cases to other SC for load balancing.

DACA is not a consideration for the slow pace of EB approvals at TSC.

[kd2008]

cursedguy,

I think I have already shown you the logic USCIS use to process requests.

Rather than overburden a single SC which happens to be geographically closer to the majority of requests, USCIS has designated where to file the request by State. This ensures a fairly even distribution of processing across the SCs.

If it doesn't, USCIS can reroute some cases to other SC for load balancing.

DACA is not a consideration for the slow pace of EB approvals at TSC.

Spec, I agree with your analysis. The Texas Service Center is not overburdened when compared to others as of now based on the current available data. May I hint at upcoming Executive orders by the President. Last time USCIS marshaled and rejigged the workflow and adjudicators for DACA relief in record 6 weeks. I believe the same will be true for the upcoming relief whatever it may be. TSC is showing peculiar behavior for sure and it may be indicative of what the focus of change might be. This is pure conjecture - and not backed by any solid evidence on my part.

[Spectator]

Spec, I agree with your analysis. The Texas Service Center is not overburdened when compared to others as of now based on the current available data. May I hint at upcoming Executive orders by the President. Last time USCIS marshaled and rejigged the workflow and adjudicators for DACA relief in record 6 weeks. I believe the same will be true for the upcoming relief whatever it may be. TSC is showing peculiar behavior for sure and it may be indicative of what the focus of change might be. This is pure conjecture - and not backed by any solid evidence on my part.kd,

I don't disagree that if EO expands the concept, then the situation might change.

Even then, I would say the timing of any such announcement is unlikely to affect FY2014 processing.

Like others, I am quite worried about the lack of approvals from TSC.

I was looking back at last year's figures. In the last 7 days in September 2013 before visas ran out, 263 (80%) of the 332 approvals on Trackitt for EB2-I were from TSC. That was more than a third of total TSC EB2-I approvals for August/September in a period of just 7 days (the last ones at that).

It's a bit sad to see the same pattern potentially repeating this year.

PS In the period Oct 1-8 2013, TSC Trackitt approvals were 98 compared to NSC's 28. The disparity suggests TSC approvals were less than they should have been in FY2014, had they been up to speed in the same way as NSC was.

[Feb262009]

Is there any way someone (like AILA) check why the Visa bulletin is not yet released? I wonder.

[geterdone]

Is there any way someone (like AILA) check why the Visa bulletin is not yet released? I wonder.

last year it was released on the 12th of August. So may be it will be out tomorrow.

[Kanmani]

FY-2013's September bulletin was released on August 12th of '13. They are well within their time window.

[Feb262009]

Thank you for your replies. I thought 10th is the cut-off. Looks like it is not.

[helpful_leo]

Add to those puzzles the TSC pattern of approvals, things start getting murkier. There is a game being played that we do not quite understand and we can only hope will be brought to some successful closure.

Haven't seen a more opportune place to employ Hanlon's Razor :)

Never attribute to malice (or strategy) that which is adequately explained by stupidity (or incompetence)!

[RMS_V13]

Vizcard and I are both July filers at about 50 wish days from RFERR. No flipping updates.
Waiting for Sept VB to decide if I have to start being aggressive in following up.

[Rachel]

Vizcard and I are both July filers at about 50 wish days from RFERR. No flipping updates.
Waiting for Sept VB to decide if I have to start being aggressive in following up.

Hi - Our PD is June 25th 2008 filed at TSC. I am worried that our GC's might not come thru this year with the way things are going. What can I do to followup? I read here about calling the senator or getting infopass..Can somebody provide information about ways to followup and process for it. Thanks so much.

[RMS_V13]

Hi - Our PD is June 25th 2008 filed at TSC. I am worried that our GC's might not come thru this year with the way things are going. What can I do to followup? I read here about calling the senator or getting infopass..Can somebody provide information about ways to followup and process for it. Thanks so much.


Just scroll thru the last 2 pages in this thread.

I'm hoping the bulletin get releases and then I'll make my move accordingly. If the dates advance, then I'll wait for 69 days from RFERR. If not raise SR. At this point I'm mentally prepared that I won't get this year and honestly it makes me envious of the NSC approvals.

before that, the talk to L2.

[smuggymba]

Shame on USCIS if they can't give GC to each and every individual whose PD is till Jan 2009 and has replied to any RFE in time.

[venkat]

what happened to September visa bulletion? Are they delaying it to accurately forecast and come up with a proper date?

My worry is more they move it is lesser the chance for people who are stuck in TSC delay queue as NSC would start approving left and right come September 1st.

Hope TSC wakes up soon....:mad:

[vedu]

Guys,

September visa bulletin is out. EB2 India cut off date is at 1st May 09.

[dorais]

September bulletin is out. EB2I is 01May2009.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-september-2014.html


D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

INDIA Employment-based Second Preference: The use of potentially "otherwise unused" Employment numbers prescribed by Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) has allowed the India Employment Second preference cut-off date to advance very rapidly in recent months. Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

[helpful_leo]

September bulletin is out. EB2I is 01May2009.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-september-2014.html


D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

INDIA Employment-based Second Preference: The use of potentially "otherwise unused" Employment numbers prescribed by Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) has allowed the India Employment Second preference cut-off date to advance very rapidly in recent months. Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

Experts,

Is this 3 month plus PD movement considered good, and what does it indicate about visa number availability?

Also, do the above notes indicate EB2I will remain current at least up to Jan 09 PD till end of October (i.e. another 2.5 months)?

[Kanmani]

Wow! That's it! One more Year!
('Four more years' was a happy message though.)

[qesehmk]

So as expected the EB2-I dates did move albeit not upto Oct 2009.

And that is fine. It is a good indication of how DoS is committed to FIFO from its end. In other words they want to make sure that they can provide visas to people in the order of their priority and do it in a manner that ensures visa availability for most of them.

I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear. People in April have probably 50% chance since I would imagine CO made slightly bigger move than was necessary to ensure all Visas get utilized.

I am also cautiously optimistic that the dates may not retrogress upto Dec bulletin. So people in April 2009 should at least get through in Oct/Nov if not in Sep. Good luck everybody.

[vishnu]

Comparing commentary in Sep 2014 bulletin vs Sep 2013 bulletin, suggests there could be more date movement next month

Sep 2014 (keeping it open)
Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

Sep 2013 (commentary suggestive of movement having been completed)
India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be "otherwise unused" numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

[qbloguser]

No movement for China!??



So as expected the EB2-I dates did move albeit not upto Oct 2009.

And that is fine. It is a good indication of how DoS is committed to FIFO from its end. In other words they want to make sure that they can provide visas to people in the order of their priority and do it in a manner that ensures visa availability for most of them.

I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear. People in April have probably 50% chance since I would imagine CO made slightly bigger move than was necessary to ensure all Visas get utilized.

I am also cautiously optimistic that the dates may not retrogress upto Dec bulletin. So people in April 2009 should at least get through in Oct/Nov if not in Sep. Good luck everybody.

[qesehmk]

No movement for China!??
They don't get the benefit of these extra visas during last month because the visas go to most backlogged country i.e. India.

However I would've expected 1 month movement for China. The fact there wasn't means China has reached their cap for the year in August itself.

[geniusmag]

So as expected the EB2-I dates did move albeit not upto Oct 2009.

And that is fine. It is a good indication of how DoS is committed to FIFO from its end. In other words they want to make sure that they can provide visas to people in the order of their priority and do it in a manner that ensures visa availability for most of them.

I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear. People in April have probably 50% chance since I would imagine CO made slightly bigger move than was necessary to ensure all Visas get utilized.

I am also cautiously optimistic that the dates may not retrogress upto Dec bulletin. So people in April 2009 should at least get through in Oct/Nov if not in Sep. Good luck everybody.

Can one expect further movement in the Oct bulletin based on the 2015 quota being available or is that it until July 2015 ? If it is the latter what happens to folks after May 2009 who have responded to the RFE - medicals again next year ?

[Praslee]

Is it true that the visa number is allocated in FIFO by priority date? My priority data is Sep 30 2008 and my attorney will apply the AOS sometime this week (say by Aug 15th). So do you think that I have a good chance of getting GC this year only, provided there are no major RFEs? thanks.


So as expected the EB2-I dates did move albeit not upto Oct 2009.

And that is fine. It is a good indication of how DoS is committed to FIFO from its end. In other words they want to make sure that they can provide visas to people in the order of their priority and do it in a manner that ensures visa availability for most of them.

I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear. People in April have probably 50% chance since I would imagine CO made slightly bigger move than was necessary to ensure all Visas get utilized.

I am also cautiously optimistic that the dates may not retrogress upto Dec bulletin. So people in April 2009 should at least get through in Oct/Nov if not in Sep. Good luck everybody.

[Kanmani]

Comparing commentary in Sep 2014 bulletin vs Sep 2013 bulletin, suggests there could be more date movement next month

Sep 2014 (keeping it open)
Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

Sep 2013 (commentary suggestive of movement having been completed)
India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be "otherwise unused" numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

Vishnu,

I interpreted the wordings in the same way you did, but that doesn't fit right into the retrogression warning on dates might be unavailable as early as November.

I am not ready for this 'Hope' theory at this moment. I am done.

I am a bit happy that my prediction on Sept'14 CoD was correct.

[qesehmk]

Can one expect further movement in the Oct bulletin based on the 2015 quota being available or is that it until July 2015 ?
There is some weak evidence that would make one optimistic about some movement in Oct. This movement - if materializes - would strictly be based on 2015 quota and not based on the need to create inventory.

As of now there is no need for CO to create inventory because he still has 1 year worth EB2I inventory. But you never know he might want to have more than 1 year inventory on hand!

See Vishnu's post above. I concur with that view but I didn't want to raise expectations too much and hence I didn't talk about it in my earlier post today.

[imdeng]

Oh Boy! So this year is done. Congratulations and best wishes to folks current in the Sept bulletin. Based on the movement, it seems like most of the folks current should be able to get through this FY or in Oct.

The language is vague enough to leave the possibility of an Oct movement. At least maintaining the dates during Oct seems like a good bet. Retrogression is scheduled for Nov bulletin. I am still holding out for 01NOV2009 in Oct bulletin to consume some of FY2015 numbers.

[tomhagen]

Can one expect further movement in the Oct bulletin based on the 2015 quota being available or is that it until July 2015 ? If it is the latter what happens to folks after May 2009 who have responded to the RFE - medicals again next year ?

Sorry if it is disappointing but I don't think there will any further movement. May 09 is stretch and 2015 quota will be used to accommodate the PD's up until May 09. Also I am optimistic that retrogression will not happen in November. And for the folks after May 09, it starts all over again for Medicals

[qesehmk]

Is it true that the visa number is allocated in FIFO by priority date? My priority data is Sep 30 2008 and my attorney will apply the AOS sometime this week (say by Aug 15th). So do you think that I have a good chance of getting GC this year only, provided there are no major RFEs? thanks.
At a Macro level the answer is yes it is FIFO. For Sep 2009 the chances of obtaining GC in next 2-4 months are close to nil (RFE or no RFE). Sorry for the tough predicament. I hope Spec/Kanmani/Sport/Viz etc also chime in.

p.s. Regarding FIFO - DoS only indirectly ensures FIFO. If USCIS requests a visa number and one is available DoS has to give one. DoS doesn't really do anything else in terms of prioritizing. So it's really USCIS that needs to ensure FIFO and they do an ok job at it.

That's why DoS is very careful in moving the dates because otherwise USCIS is a crazy place .. they will approve 2009 folks while 2006 people are waiting. No kidding!

p.p.s. - I misread Praslee's date. My bad. Sep 2008 should be ok this year.

[rka_72]

Now that the Sep bulletin is out, I think now TSC will start considering the Aug bulletin cases :)

[MATT2012]

Congrats to all who got current today and all here(Q, Spec, Kanmani,...) who got the calculations of this year EB2i movement very close to accurate. No surprises in either EB2I or EB3I.

[cursedguy]

Oh Boy! So this year is done. Congratulations and best wishes to folks current in the Sept bulletin. Based on the movement, it seems like most of the folks current should be able to get through this FY or in Oct.

The language is vague enough to leave the possibility of an Oct movement. At least maintaining the dates during Oct seems like a good bet. Retrogression is scheduled for Nov bulletin. I am still holding out for 01NOV2009 in Oct bulletin to consume some of FY2015 numbers.


Sorry that you did not get current this year, I like your optimism. See you around then!


EDIT: And a big thanks to Spec, Q and others who got it right again!. Trackit is down since yesterday, it cant handle Eb2I traffic.

[Praslee]

Thanks. But in your original post you said "I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear". ZThen, what do you mean by saying "For Sep 2008 the chances of obtaining GC in next 2-4 months are close to nil (RFE or no RFE)."


At a Macro level the answer is yes it is FIFO. For Sep 2008 the chances of obtaining GC in next 2-4 months are close to nil (RFE or no RFE). Sorry for the tough predicament. I hope Spec/Kanmani/Sport/Viz etc also chime in.

p.s. Regarding FIFO - DoS only indirectly ensures FIFO. If USCIS requests a visa number and one is available DoS has to give one. DoS doesn't really do anything else in terms of prioritizing. So it's really USCIS that needs to ensure FIFO and they do an ok job at it.

That's why DoS is very careful in moving the dates because otherwise USCIS is a crazy place .. they will approve 2009 folks while 2006 people are waiting. No kidding!

[qesehmk]

Thanks. But in your original post you said "I am glad that we were right on the money this year too. May 2009 is going to mean people upto Mar 2009 will definitely clear". ZThen, what do you mean by saying "For Sep 2008 the chances of obtaining GC in next 2-4 months are close to nil (RFE or no RFE)."
Stupid me!!

I read your date as Sep 2009. Sorry. Sep 2008 should get a GC this year itself. The dates will retrogress in Dec 2015. So you have ample time from now till then.

[anuprab]

yeah I don't understand the same, my sister who was nov 2008 got cleared in first week of Aug. So I am guessing people upto May 2009 are definitely going to get cleared in the next 2 months or so.

[Praslee]

Thanks. I can see you being overwhelmed with questions.


Stupid me!!

I read your date as Sep 2009. Sorry. Sep 2008 should get a GC this year itself. The dates will retrogress in Dec 2015. So you have ample time from now till then.

[qesehmk]

a big thanks to Spec, Q and others who got it right again!
and viz kanmani sport jagan matt imdeng and many others. Sorry if I am forgetting anybody.

[Kanmani]

Matt, I was praying for your optimistic prediction to come true just like it happened last year. I do check your excel sheet very often. Thanks.

Congratulations to all our members who are current and I wish Viz, Sportsfan and all others waiting, all the best for your speedy approval.

[imdeng]

We started the year with EB2I: 15JUN08, ending with 01MAY09 -> 10.5 months movement. A less than 1 year movement even after some pretty significant tailwinds - EB2ROW slowdown, low density in EB2I during late 2008 and 2009, extra visas from FB. Given this, considering that next year is getting set up to be full of headwinds (except continued low density in EB2I in 2009), its going to be quite painful going forward. Buckle up folks - its going to be a rough ride.

[anuprab]

do you think there will be movement post May 1 2010 to build inventory? This is so frustrating as we missed the boat 3 yrs back by 2 days and now waiting to get current. I am not even expecting greencard but just want to be able to file 485. Is this too much to ask !!

We started the year with EB2I: 15JUN08, ending with 01MAY09 -> 10.5 months movement. A less than 1 year movement even after some pretty significant tailwinds - EB2ROW slowdown, low density in EB2I during late 2008 and 2009, extra visas from FB. Given this, considering that next year is getting set up to be full of headwinds (except continued low density in EB2I in 2009), its going to be quite painful going forward. Buckle up folks - its going to be a rough ride.

[gcseeker2009]

Folks- I am a silent spectator of this forum for the past 2.5 years and this is my first post. I would be current in September. My PD is 04/09/09. Thanks to all the gurus for the accurate predictions. Now I am bracing myself for the roller coaster ride in September. Thanks again team...u guys are doing a awesome job.

[ramaka02]

I concur, thank you guys for doing such an accurate and noble job of helping us all! Being an uber optimist (Saggi trait) that I am, I would not lose hope about the dates not moving further. You never know after all it is DOS and our fav USCIS that we are talking about here :)!

[skpanda]

Assuming an 18K pending demand/invenotry at the begining of FY2015 - Even if we get 8K approved for EB2I in FY2015, I would think/hope DOS would want to build inventory at the end of FY2015. I know it is wishful thinking (MY PD is Dec 2010).


On other note - I have not seen Demand data published in many months. Does any body know if that is gone?




We started the year with EB2I: 15JUN08, ending with 01MAY09 -> 10.5 months movement. A less than 1 year movement even after some pretty significant tailwinds - EB2ROW slowdown, low density in EB2I during late 2008 and 2009, extra visas from FB. Given this, considering that next year is getting set up to be full of headwinds (except continued low density in EB2I in 2009), its going to be quite painful going forward. Buckle up folks - its going to be a rough ride.

[imdeng]

Welcome to the forum Anuprab. I understand your frustration. Nobody knows CO's mind - but based purely on numbers, CO has enough inventory to finish FY2015. So as such, there is no critical need to do inventory generation until early FY2016. However, this does not mean that it can not happen. CO might be more comfortable keeping more than 1 year demand in inventory - and in that case he might do inventory generation. When and how much - we can only guess.


do you think there will be movement post May 1 2010 to build inventory? This is so frustrating as we missed the boat 3 yrs back by 2 days and now waiting to get current. I am not even expecting greencard but just want to be able to file 485. Is this too much to ask !!

[MATT2012]

Matt, I was praying for your optimistic prediction to come true just like it happened last year. I do check your excel sheet very often. Thanks.

Congratulations to all our members who are current and I wish Viz, Sportsfan and all others waiting, all the best for your speedy approval.

Kanmani,

I knew all along that it was a little difficult to reach that date, without over allocation. Though personally, I would have been more cheerful with you and few others getting current.

Even after the Sep bulletin, I am still confused about why those RFEs ? let time prove what is in store between now and the coming months, as no normal calculations, will not support such a movement in October or November. Technically, USCIS will have one year from RFE reply date to approve the cases.

I am hoping for majority of the cases getting cleared, at least that way there is a shorter queue for next FY. Trackitt being down most of time, reduces our visibility to approvals.

[imdeng]

Congratulations gcseeker - wish you all the best. Hope this Sept as good as green for you and your family.

Folks- I am a silent spectator of this forum for the past 2.5 years and this is my first post. I would be current in September. My PD is 04/09/09. Thanks to all the gurus for the accurate predictions. Now I am bracing myself for the roller coaster ride in September. Thanks again team...u guys are doing a awesome job.

[YTeleven]

Wow! That's it! One more Year!
('Four more years' was a happy message though.)

I don't think so. There will be one more forward movement in October VB and then final retrogession in November VB and that's it for this CY.
If you see my previous posts back in june: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=46953#post46953
I was assuming a conservative figure of 22k visa allocation for EB2-I in FY14. Looking at the current processing trends and considering the FY15 quota to be issued in Oct'14(as CO did last year) I still believe there is much scope for more forward movement in next VB.

[anuprab]

Thanks imdeng. We are all paying the price for being legal, aren't we? but I am glad its this way atleast we have peace of mind. I hope if the CO generates inventory beginning FY 2016 it would mean around next summer or around Oct 2015 right? He has to for the fiscal year 2016...just hoping to be current...that's all!

[wheeler234]

Gurus - A silent reader in this forum, my PD is Feb-5th 2008 and I applied last year in Sep-2013. Recently in July my case went in to a Security check process. I raised an SR and got the response - "however, your case has not cleared all required security checks at this time". Having waited soo long for the GC (Entered US in 2000), this response is really a de-motivating. What are my options at this point? Should I contact the Congressman and ask for help? or raise another SR. Please advice.

Wheeler

[Spectator]

So now we know - 01MAY09. My gut feeling says that seems about right for the number of visas that might be available.

My feeling is that is going to mean 3-4k cases falling into FY2015 based on the number of visas I expect to be available to EB2-I in FY2014. Most of those can be approved in early FY2015, if CO decides to use the initial FY2015 EB2-I allocation at the beginning of the year. I don't expect the COD to advance further in October 2014.

How the rest of the FY progresses will, IMO, be dependent on whether there are spare FB visas or not. We should know that around mid/late January 2015 (when the DOS Visa Statistics are published), as well as exactly how many visas each Category and Country used.

Congratulations to everybody who became current.

[imdeng]

Between 01MAY09 and 01NOV09, there are 6258 cases as per the latest inventory. Last year we had ~600 trackitt approvals for EB2I in Oct/Nov - which is ~7800 considering a trackitt multiple of 13. So we are playing in the same ballpark.

Of course, the above does not include any inventory carryover from FY2014 and new porting demand that will continue to hit as long as dates are not retrogressed.

[qesehmk]

Gurus - A silent reader in this forum, my PD is Feb-5th 2008 and I applied last year in Sep-2013. Recently in July my case went in to a Security check process. I raised an SR and got the response - "however, your case has not cleared all required security checks at this time". Having waited soo long for the GC (Entered US in 2000), this response is really a de-motivating. What are my options at this point? Should I contact the Congressman and ask for help? or raise another SR. Please advice.

Wheeler
Wheeler - sorry to hear your story. Try the Senator (not a rep congressman) first. If that doesn't go anywhere you need a lawyer to help. I am sure there is a legal way to hold DoS / USCIS accountable.

[wheeler234]

Thanks for the response Q, I will contact the senator soon.

[imdeng]

:(

The dagger into our collective hearts!

PS> *jk* of course. Rational mind knows you are right, but the wishful/hopeful mind can not help but argue for a better outcome.


I don't expect the COD to advance further in October 2014.

[vizcard]

Now that the Sep bulletin is out, I think now TSC will start considering the Aug bulletin cases :)

Well they haven't finished the July cases :) -- speaking purely about my own case!

[qesehmk]

Thanks for the response Q, I will contact the senator soon.
You are welcome wheeler.

Let me clarify why I said senator as opposed to rep.

In American democracy Senate has the role of oversight and hence a senator has better connections with various government departments and agencies.

House of reps is focused more on allocating money. So I am not sure how a rep can influence a case where FBI check is stuck. Of course individuals might differ. But my first instinct would be to trust a senator to help in such matter or at least get a real picture of why something may be stuck and what can be done about it.

[geterdone]

We started the year with EB2I: 15JUN08, ending with 01MAY09 -> 10.5 months movement. A less than 1 year movement even after some pretty significant tailwinds - EB2ROW slowdown, low density in EB2I during late 2008 and 2009, extra visas from FB. Given this, considering that next year is getting set up to be full of headwinds (except continued low density in EB2I in 2009), its going to be quite painful going forward. Buckle up folks - its going to be a rough ride.

Imdeng- sorry for my ignorance.... you said that EB2I has low density in late 2008 but when I look at the inventory sheet it is showing more than 1600 for December 2008. Am I missing something?

[Spectator]

E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the USCIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 24th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2014 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2014 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 150,241

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2014 the per-country limit is 26,337. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,525.

The prorated 7% level in EB would be 10,517 split as 3,008 in each of EB1, EB2 & EB3 and 746/747 in each of EB4 & EB5.

USCIS were as late as ever in providing DOS with the information required to finally calculate the EB allocation.

[CleanSock]

Spec,
Did you mean 01MAY09?


So now we know - 01MAY10. My gut feeling says that seems about right for the number of visas that might be available.

My feeling is that is going to mean 3-4k cases falling into FY2015 based on the number of visas I expect to be available to EB2-I in FY2014. Most of those can be approved in early FY2015, if CO decides to use the initial FY2015 EB2-I allocation at the beginning of the year. I don't expect the COD to advance further in October 2014.

How the rest of the FY progresses will, IMO, be dependent on whether there are spare FB visas or not. We should know that around mid/late January 2015 (when the DOS Visa Statistics are published), as well as exactly how many visas each Category and Country used.

Congratulations to everybody who became current.

[kd2008]

So now we know - 01MAY10. My gut feeling says that seems about right for the number of visas that might be available.

My feeling is that is going to mean 3-4k cases falling into FY2015 based on the number of visas I expect to be available to EB2-I in FY2014. Most of those can be approved in early FY2015, if CO decides to use the initial FY2015 EB2-I allocation at the beginning of the year. I don't expect the COD to advance further in October 2014.

How the rest of the FY progresses will, IMO, be dependent on whether there are spare FB visas or not. We should know that around mid/late January 2015 (when the DOS Visa Statistics are published), as well as exactly how many visas each Category and Country used.

Congratulations to everybody who became current.

Congrats to all those who got current!

In FY2012, CO decided to build demand when USCIS I-485 EB2-I inventory dipped to 9K (technically, should we consider EB2IC since they were lock step then?) and dates were 3 or 4 months of the last max value.

After using demand up to 01 MAY 09, EB2-I inventory would have approx. 18K to 19K left.

Assuming, same is the case this time, when might inventory build up happen? Would FY2015 SOFAD allow another (10K+porting +new filings) to be used up? So demand build up at the end of FY 2015 or early FY 2016 would be likely? I know its way too early, but I would like everybody's initial thoughts.

2nd half of FY 2015 would certainly be used to build demand for EB3ROW & EB2C. That is a given. May be even earlier.

[imdeng]

Dec 2008 is a little bit of an outlier at 1600, most months in latter half of 2008 until first quarter of 2009 are 1200-1300. Past that 2009 and 2010 is 1000-1200 with the low point in Sept of ~800+ IIRC. Even 1600 is on the low side in comparison to late 2007 and early 2008 though.


Imdeng- sorry for my ignorance.... you said that EB2I has low density in late 2008 but when I look at the inventory sheet it is showing more than 1600 for December 2008. Am I missing something?

[Spectator]

Spec,
Did you mean 01MAY09?Thanks CleanSock.

It must have been a Freudian slip.

I've corrected the date in my original post.

[Kanmani]

Sportsfan,

No need to be sorry. I knew this is coming and I have to be sorry for my husband who has been refreshing the bulletin page link for the first time ever,from yesterday, hoping to see his PD to get current. :(

[jimmys]

If USCIS thinks dates won't move beyond 01 MAY 2009 why did they send RFEs up to OCT/NOV 2009. Does it mean those people have to do the medicals again next summer if the current one expires? Pure insane. And,I firmly believe it won't be FIFO in approval. There always will be few lucky chaps and a few unfortunate ones. Let's check the trackitt.com once the date retrogresses to hear about unfortunate stories.

[imdeng]

Its fine Sports - the long odds were clear for a while. Like Kanmani, I am also more concerned about my spouse :-) - she is ready to leave her very stressful job the day we get our GC and there is more stability in our lives.

I am really sorry imdeng and kanmani you didn't get current! OTOH though, I think given everything, 1 May 2009 is really as best as they can achieve this year.

[Kanmani]

I know this kanmani...I have been through a lot of anxiety over the last 2 months and it's not over yet! It's not over until it is over for any of us.


I know that man. We are not one of the luckiest of guys who have everything go smoothly at the right time in their life, no struggle or whatsoever ! I used to ponder over it and even complain that God is so mean. My husband has a simple answer, god has something else so important in his store exclusively for us . So do to you sportsfan, don't worry everything will go just fine. All the best!

[almost]

Guru's
Long time follower first time poster but a big fan of all the hard work you guys put in. The depth of knowledge that some of you guys have is amazing; makes life easy for quite a few of I am sure.
I have a quick question - Does the cutoff date of 1st May 2009 include 1st May or not. I think it isn't but just want to make sure. Would appreciate if someone can clarify. My apologies on posting this here but I needed a quick answer.
Please feel free to move this to the relevant thread once answered.
Thanks

[feedmyback]

Q,

Did you mean the dates will retrogress in Dec 2014?

[saagar_is_cool]

A big thanks to all the Gurus here. I finally got current in September bulletin. I hope to file on September 1 itself. I am pretty content with getting an EAD this year, but out of curiosity, I have a question. Assuming that mmy lawyer does indeed file on September 1, will I have a small shot of getting the actual GC (1%) ? If it remains current in November, should I create an infopass or senator, congressman request etc.

[aquatican]

Vishnu, while i would love to see more movement ( having missed the boat by all of 49 days) the spillover is used up in the last 3 months of this fiscal year. Since the new fiscal year starts in October most probably there will be no advancement.


Comparing commentary in Sep 2014 bulletin vs Sep 2013 bulletin, suggests there could be more date movement next month

Sep 2014 (keeping it open)
Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

Sep 2013 (commentary suggestive of movement having been completed)
India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be "otherwise unused" numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

[Kanmani]

I am holding hope that dates move in October. I am really curious to know the fate of folks like you who refreshed their medicals this year.

We replied the RFE in August'14 and the medicals are valid through Aug'15, I don't think we need one if the dates start to move in June of next year effective July. Let's see.

[qesehmk]

Q,

Did you mean the dates will retrogress in Dec 2014?
Yes indeed.

[imdeng]

The date itself is not included. For example - 01MAY09 means that anybody with PD BEFORE 01MAY09 is current. If one has a PD of 01MAY09 then that person is not current as of the Sept bulletin.

Guru's
Long time follower first time poster but a big fan of all the hard work you guys put in. The depth of knowledge that some of you guys have is amazing; makes life easy for quite a few of I am sure.
I have a quick question - Does the cutoff date of 1st May 2009 include 1st May or not. I think it isn't but just want to make sure. Would appreciate if someone can clarify. My apologies on posting this here but I needed a quick answer.
Please feel free to move this to the relevant thread once answered.
Thanks

[Kanmani]

Guru's
Long time follower first time poster but a big fan of all the hard work you guys put in. The depth of knowledge that some of you guys have is amazing; makes life easy for quite a few of I am sure.
I have a quick question - Does the cutoff date of 1st May 2009 include 1st May or not. I think it isn't but just want to make sure. Would appreciate if someone can clarify. My apologies on posting this here but I needed a quick answer.
Please feel free to move this to the relevant thread once answered.
Thanks

almost,

Welcome to the forum!

The cutoff date of 1st May 2009 does not include the PD of 1st May'09. Period!

[qesehmk]

Guru's
Long time follower first time poster but a big fan of all the hard work you guys put in. The depth of knowledge that some of you guys have is amazing; makes life easy for quite a few of I am sure.
I have a quick question - Does the cutoff date of 1st May 2009 include 1st May or not. I think it isn't but just want to make sure. Would appreciate if someone can clarify. My apologies on posting this here but I needed a quick answer.
Please feel free to move this to the relevant thread once answered.
Thanks
almost welcome to the forum.

I think the cutoff date doesn't include the cut-off date. i.e. in this case it should be 30 April 2009 and prior.

But I could be wrong. So lets see what others think.

[Spectator]

Congrats to all those who got current!

In FY2012, CO decided to build demand when USCIS I-485 EB2-I inventory dipped to 9K (technically, should we consider EB2IC since they were lock step then?) and dates were 3 or 4 months of the last max value.

After using demand up to 01 MAY 09, EB2-I inventory would have approx. 18K to 19K left.

Assuming, same is the case this time, when might inventory build up happen? Would FY2015 SOFAD allow another (10K+porting +new filings) to be used up? So demand build up at the end of FY 2015 or early FY 2016 would be likely? I know its way too early, but I would like everybody's initial thoughts.

2nd half of FY 2015 would certainly be used to build demand for EB3ROW & EB2C. That is a given. May be even earlier.kd,

I have slightly whacky outside thought on that.

Normally I would say that late FY2015/early FY2016 might be unlikely.

Firstly, I have a feeling CO might feel slightly uncomfortable with EB2-I dates being very, very different from EB2-C, who as you say, must almost certainly move forward in FY2015.

Perversely, the new Medical policy might make it easier to move dates forward, if CO can gain some cooperation from USCIS (difficult I know).

Normally, the problem in moving dates forward is that it makes later dates current and, since they are preadjudicated, almost instant demand that DOS sees and must issue a visa for. That screws up whether enough visas are available versus instant demand and the possibility of late PDs being approved rather than a generally FIFO approach.

Now we have the situation where any EB2-I case that has not received a RFE for a new I-693 is essentially no longer preadjudicated. Without a new I-693, they cannot convert to demand that DOS sees, since USCIS cannot approve them.

If CO was assured that USCIS would not issue RFE for new I-693 to late 2009/2010 cases (as appropriate), then he could actually move the COD forward safe in the knowledge that it would not increase the immediate demand for visas (other than a tiny number of CP cases perhaps).

He could then retrogress back to the true COD, having allowed people beyond 01MAY10 to file their I-485.

That would certainly be possible at the end of FY2015. Sufficient preadjudicated cases would (might) remain to process at the beginning of the new FY. By the time the COD moved forward substantially again (nearer the end of the FY), the newly filed cases would be preadjudicated and available for approval. It also means that CO would have visibility of the demand well ahead of time, unlike in FY2012.

Later PD would probably choose to defer the I-693 to a date when the COD reached their PD and USCIS issued an RFE for it.

A bit far out I know, but not entirely impossible. The main points against it are common sense and the need for cooperation between DOS and USCIS.

Thoughts?

[almost]

Kanmani,
ugghhh.....
Thanks for the quick response. So, as I dreaded, I was correct indeed and this is very frustrating.... :(
...........atleast I picked a very apt name for my profile :)

[fedupwithgc]

My PD is 7/7/2008 and I haven't heard back from TSC on my 485 yet. My RFERR is June 17th and I am waiting to raise a SR next week. Meanwhile, EAD/AP is expiring in December and I was thinking to apply for a renewal next week hoping that might trigger them to look up my file and make a decision.

What do you guys think ?

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,
ugghhh.....
Thanks for the quick response. So, as I dreaded, I was correct indeed and this is very frustrating.... :(
...........atleast I picked a very apt name for my profile :)

I am so sorry that you missed it by one day.

[shekhar_kuruk]

That's a bummer. I was looking for closure but then that's life. Never ceases to shock and surprise. I am not going to feel sorry for myself but in a way I am relieved. Time to move on. I do have a Medical & an EVL RFE to which I have not yet replied, so in a way that's good. I am planning to send out the response in
a couple of weeks so may be I will not get a new one next year. Some people think that the dates may move some more next month, but I am not willing to hold out any hope for that. Good luck to people who missed out by a whisker for Oct's Bulletin and good luck to every one who is current.
"May the Force be with you" ;)


September bulletin is out. EB2I is 01May2009.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-september-2014.html


D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

INDIA Employment-based Second Preference: The use of potentially "otherwise unused" Employment numbers prescribed by Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) has allowed the India Employment Second preference cut-off date to advance very rapidly in recent months. Continued forward movement of this cut-off date during the upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, however, and no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Once there is a significant increase in India Employment Second preference demand it will be necessary to retrogress the cut-off date, possibly as early as November, to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

[imdeng]

This must be so frustrating - missing it by one day! Keep your chin up - its a matter of months and you should be through. There is light at the end of the tunnel.

Kanmani,
ugghhh.....
Thanks for the quick response. So, as I dreaded, I was correct indeed and this is very frustrating.... :(
...........atleast I picked a very apt name for my profile :)

[fedupwithgc]

Thanks Q. Your kind words are the only thing that makes me hopeful about getting greened this year from sluggish TSC.

[almost]

Thanks Q,
As my luck would have it, and as you guys must have guessed, my PD is 1st May 2009 indeed ...thanks to my attorney who sat on the documents for more than a month before the stuff got sent out.
I think these guys came out with the verbiage on predictions just to rub it in further on guys like me who almost made it....lol
Now I gotta wait another month just to know for sure whether I have have a chance of making it this year or not....ugghhh

[qesehmk]

Thanks Q. Your kind words are the only thing that makes me hopeful about getting greened this year from sluggish TSC.
Lets cross the fingers. Hopefully you will get through.


Thanks Q,
As my luck would have it, and as you guys must have guessed, my PD is 1st May 2009 indeed ...thanks to my attorney who sat on the documents for more than a month before the stuff got sent out.
I think these guys came out with the verbiage on predictions just to rub it in further on guys like me who almost made it....lol
Now I gotta wait another month just to know for sure whether I have have a chance of making it this year or not....ugghhh
You got the right attitude my friend! Immigration is so ridiculous that it helps to have a little bit of humor!

[kd2008]

kd,

I have slightly whacky outside thought on that.

Normally I would say that late FY2015/early FY2016 might be unlikely.

Firstly, I have a feeling CO might feel slightly uncomfortable with EB2-I dates being very, very different from EB2-C, who as you say, must almost certainly move forward in FY2015.

Perversely, the new Medical policy might make it easier to move dates forward, if CO can gain some cooperation from USCIS (difficult I know).

Normally, the problem in moving dates forward is that it makes later dates current and, since they are preadjudicated, almost instant demand that DOS sees and must issue a visa for. That screws up whether enough visas are available versus instant demand and the possibility of late PDs being approved rather than a generally FIFO approach.

Now we have the situation where any EB2-I case that has not received a RFE for a new I-693 is essentially no longer preadjudicated. Without a new I-693, they cannot convert to demand that DOS sees, since USCIS cannot approve them.

If CO was assured that USCIS would not issue RFE for new I-693 to late 2009/2010 cases (as appropriate), then he could actually move the COD forward safe in the knowledge that it would not increase the immediate demand for visas (other than a tiny number of CP cases perhaps).

He could then retrogress back to the true COD, having allowed people beyond 01MAY10 to file their I-485.

That would certainly be possible at the end of FY2015. Sufficient preadjudicated cases would (might) remain to process at the beginning of the new FY. By the time the COD moved forward substantially again (nearer the end of the FY), the newly filed cases would be preadjudicated and available for approval. It also means that CO would have visibility of the demand well ahead of time, unlike in FY2012.

Later PD would probably choose to defer the I-693 to a date when the COD reached their PD and USCIS issued an RFE for it.

A bit far out I know, but not entirely impossible. The main points against it are common sense and the need for cooperation between DOS and USCIS.

Thoughts?

That is a very neat, creative & comforting point of view for those who are waiting to file their I-485 - including me. But alas, it shall never come to pass precisely because of the two very important reasons you stated: common sense & co-operation. Neither of which are mandated by law for USCIS or DOS. Both them are slow on uptake to changing landscapes. So I humbly have to say "it ain't happening."

So given the reality, what do you think will happen by end of next FY? Fingers crossed.

Also, we will know what will happen earlier than usual thanks to the new medical exam I-693 policy.

[fedupwithgc]

Viz, My PD is 7/7/2008 and my RFERR is 6/17/14 and still waiting.... They better start working on July cases first :)

[anuprab]

I hear you almost!. Imagine my husband's date 3rd May 2010. we missed it by 3 days the first time and all this because of his lawyer who messed up the PERM labor filed in 2007! went into audit for 2.5 yrs and got denied for some stupid error on the part of the lawyer and mind you he works for a reputed American company...its all fate and luck!

[vedu]

Almost,

Your selected NAME brought the curse to you! You were ALMOST in! Wish you would have chosen a different handle, and hope the date moves forward in the next bulletin.


Kanmani,
ugghhh.....
Thanks for the quick response. So, as I dreaded, I was correct indeed and this is very frustrating.... :(
...........atleast I picked a very apt name for my profile :)

[jdoe99]

Long time lurker here. This blog has been phenomenal in bringing about clarity for a process that is mind numbingly irritating. The experts on this forum are doing a great job that cannot be thanked enough.

Your logic and number crunching has been pretty spot on. Given your experience, could you care to speculate on what you see happening with EB2 porters for July and Aug. Especially given how TSC has been quick to send out FP notices right after receipts where as NSC took about 5 weeks after receipts. Thanks in advance.

[almost]

I hear you almost!. Imagine my husband's date 3rd May 2010. we missed it by 3 days the first time and all this because of his lawyer who messed up the PERM labor filed in 2007! went into audit for 2.5 yrs and got denied for some stupid error on the part of the lawyer and mind you he works for a reputed American company...its all fate and luck!

I feel your pain anuprab and thanks for the kinds words. Just hang in there and hope for the best. Hopefull it will be over soon and be for the better.

[Spectator]

That is a very neat, creative & comforting point of view for those who are waiting to file their I-485 - including me. But alas, it shall never come to pass precisely because of the two very important reasons you stated: common sense & co-operation. Neither of which are mandated by law for USCIS or DOS. Both them are slow on uptake to changing landscapes. So I humbly have to say "it ain't happening."

So given the reality, what do you think will happen by end of next FY? Fingers crossed.

Also, we will know what will happen earlier than usual thanks to the new medical exam I-693 policy.kd,

If there is no creative solution, or unless there are substantial FB visas available in FY2015, I don't see a move beyond 01MAY10 until the second half of FY2016.

[almost]

Vedu,
Lol. I saw the bulletin and then chose the name knowing that my fate is most likely "almost" for this time :cool:
I am still hoping that the date do move forward in the next one and they allocate the next years quota by end of this year. Will save me the trouble of renewing EAD which expires in March 15. Other than that I dont care much as I made the career move without waiting for the GC.

[aquatican]

I looked at PD movement for EB 2 India for last 9 years and Oct bulletins never advances the date. ( exception of one year with +15 days move)


Vedu,
Lol. I saw the bulletin and then chose the name knowing that my fate is most likely "almost" for this time :cool:
I am still hoping that the date do move forward in the next one and they allocate the next years quota by end of this year. Will save me the trouble of renewing EAD which expires in March 15. Other than that I dont care much as I made the career move without waiting for the GC.

[kd2008]

kd,

If there is no creative solution, or unless there are substantial FB visas available in FY2015, I don't see a move beyond 01MAY10 until the second half of FY2016.

Spec, thanks for the indication. May be I should be back after another year & a half :p

[kkruna]

If CO did that, he would be one of my favorite people in this world.

I totally agree that the new medical policy gives the USCIS a new tool to curb the demand. This can only mean that CO will get tremendous flexibility to move dates and make folks in 2010/early 2011 current. I really hope they can pull this off.

Last time CO kept on talking about "insufficient demand" as he moved dates during Jul'11 to Apr'12 - and built up inventory for around 3 years.

[almost]

I looked at PD movement for EB 2 India for last 9 years and Oct bulletins never advances the date. ( exception of one year with +15 days move)

aquatican,
I do believe what you are saying is correct but this time it's the ambiquity of the verbiage on predictions that induces hope. We will know for sure in a few weeks. I am counting more on the next year's quota at this point.

[akshaya8]

Juky 15th 2008 to May 1st 2009 total Inventory is 13,365 + Back log 4 K + Eb3 to EB2 porting 3K - 16K required to maintain 4K backlog for next year. anything less than that means inventory backlog before May 1st 2009 will be more than 4K, Do EB2 India get 16K this year???????

ESTIMATE NUMBERS:
Assume EB2 India gets 16K this year,For Next year EB2 India remaining Inventory is
May 1st 2009 to May 1st 2010 is 13,344 + Back log 4 K + Eb3 to EB2 porting 3K so atleast 20K required to clear current Inventory.
TOTAL NUMBERS
July '2013 to July'2014 EB2 India Inventory diff is = 43418 - 31,234 = 12K actual inventory reduction happend for last year, next 2 years we may get spill over more than last year...

keeping this trend makes inventory after this year(2014) movement will be 31 - 12 = 19K and after Next year(2015) 19K-12K = 7k left for Year 2016....

Both logics demand 20K and possibilty of 20K allocation to EB2 India may no happen this next year SO Building Inventory may not happen before Sept'2015..............


Next year spill over

EB 5 - 0 Throughout last year prediction was cutoffdate for EB5 china, it may happen this year.

EB1 - 0

Last July'2013 EB1 Inventory was 11,016 and this July 2014 inventory is 20,128 so inventory increased by 9K EB1 demand is surging don't expect spill over...
EB2 ROW

Last July'2013 EB1 Inventory was 7,742 and this July 2014 inventory is 12,173 so inventory increased by 5K next year we are starting with 5K more demand for EB2 ROW.

[Rachel]

Just scroll thru the last 2 pages in this thread.

I'm hoping the bulletin get releases and then I'll make my move accordingly. If the dates advance, then I'll wait for 69 days from RFERR. If not raise SR. At this point I'm mentally prepared that I won't get this year and honestly it makes me envious of the NSC approvals.

before that, the talk to L2.


Online status for my application hasnt changed from initial review.

1)What is L2? How do I contact?
2)How do I raise the matter for Senator Review?

Please help. Thanks

[Kanmani]

aquatican,
I do believe what you are saying is correct but this time it's the ambiquity of the verbiage on predictions that induces hope. We will know for sure in a few weeks. I am counting more on the next year's quota at this point.

almost,

We, although my pd is 2 months later than that of yours, I included May, June, up to July15 into the we and we cannot count for the next year's quota. Those days are all gone and the regular quota movements are history.

Nowadays annual allocation of EB2-India Visas are absorbed by porters' , so obviously we must wait until next spillover season. (Assuming, but not wishing no movement next month)

[gkjppp]

Makesesnse.so endof 2015 or early 2016 i should get my GC.EB2 Perm to GC 6 Years ,it is leaning towards 7+ years... Not sure where is immigration reform/Executinve Order

[vyruss]

Will there be movement in the next month? So assuming that the current movement will take care of inventory through April 30th 2009, should they not move dates for approximately (2800/12) if they assign monthly quota for next year in October. The only reason why they would not is porting demand. Are there other reasons besides the randomness associated with the unknowns in the black box.

[Spectator]

Will there be movement in the next month? So assuming that the current movement will take care of inventory through April 30th 2009, should they not move dates for approximately (2800/12) if they assign monthly quota for next year in October. The only reason why they would not is porting demand. Are there other reasons besides the randomness associated with the unknowns in the black box.You are assuming that :

a) Every case with a PD earlier than 01MAY09 will be ready to be adjudicated before the end of September 2014.

b) That there are sufficient visa numbers available in FY2014 to approve all cases with a PD earlier than 01MAY09.

I'm not sure I would agree with either assumption.

Generally, visas run out before the end of September, but cases can still be adjudicated during the remainder of September and left in the pending file until the new FY allocation becomes available in October. CO must then decide how much he is prepared to use when he sets the COD.

There are also a significant number of new applications that have been submitted within even the July/August Cut Off Dates. They will become ready to be adjudicated at some point.

Last year (FY2013), the COD moved to 15JUN08 by the end of the FY, but as many as 6-7k of those had to be approved within this FY's (FY2014) allocation.

[self.coach]

I looked at the forward movement and.....oh well...life goes on.

[vyruss]

You are assuming that :

Last year (FY2013), the COD moved to 15JUN08 by the end of the FY, but as many as 6-7k of those had to be approved within this FY's (FY2014) allocation.

Spec, what I gather from your post is that it is highly unlikely for any forward movement in October. The movement to May 1, 2009 assumes that there will be some applications that will be carried forward to next year. The intention is to perhaps not waste any Visas for 2014, so there would be some buffer that will be carried forward.

[Spectator]

Spec, what I gather from your post is that it is highly unlikely for any forward movement in October. The movement to May 1, 2009 assumes that there will be some applications that will be carried forward to next year. The intention is to perhaps not waste any Visas for 2014, so there would be some buffer that will be carried forward.vyruss,

That's correct.

I don't think or expect that everybody will agree with that opinion, but if a contingency is not built into the COD movement, then visas would potentially be wasted.

People will probably differ in their view of the size of that contingency and thus the numbers that must fall through to FY2015.

I may be wrong in my view.

[jdoe99]

vyruss,

That's correct.

I don't think or expect that everybody will agree with that opinion, but if a contingency is not built into the COD movement, then visas would potentially be wasted.

People will probably differ in their view of the size of that contingency and thus the numbers that must fall through to FY2015.

I may be wrong in my view.

Spec and other experts: Could you give your take on what you see happening with EB2 porters for July and Aug. Especially given how TSC has been quick to send out FP notices right after receipts where as NSC took about 5 weeks after receipts. Thanks.

[Spectator]

Spec and other experts: Could you give your take on what you see happening with EB2 porters for July and Aug. Especially given how TSC has been quick to send out FP notices right after receipts where as NSC took about 5 weeks after receipts. Thanks.I assume you mean those that filed for the first time in July and August.

Some lucky ones may get an approval, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Looking at EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW, there are some approval times less than the probable window available to the end of October. The average approval time for both those Categories is more than 4 months, so I think it is pot luck. EB3-ROW is a better analogy, since they will already have an approved I-140 and the processing time purely reflects that for the I-485.

[jdoe99]

Thanks Spec. I kind of assumed that approval is not happening this year except for a few lucky ones who sneak through.

[almost]

almost,

We, although my pd is 2 months later than that of yours, I included May, June, up to July15 into the we and we cannot count for the next year's quota. Those days are all gone and the regular quota movements are history.

Nowadays annual allocation of EB2-India Visas are absorbed by porters' , so obviously we must wait until next spillover season. (Assuming, but not wishing no movement next month)

Kanmani,
You are probably right about assuming that there will be no quota available for anything in the begining of the year but there have been cases in the past where this has happened. I think I saw some cases on trackitt sometime ago. It would suck bigtime, for me especially, if I have to wait till next spillover season for the GC...uggghhh ..... dont even want to think about that ...... but, knowing my luck it would probably be the case.

[rka_72]

Has anyone seen the latest demand data (for Sep) or its not released?

[Kanmani]

Has anyone seen the latest demand data (for Sep) or its not released?

DoS stopped publishing it to public.

[iatiam]

As much as it is heart-breaking to see that Gurus like Kanimani did not get current this time around, I would like to re-affirm that there is some has been some good movement for this year so keep the hopes high. Seems like EB2I follows the Goldilock's theory; at the end we tend to get just enough luck to get a lot of people greened - never too low, never too high. As always, some people are always left behind.

So I am optimistic. Despite the dire situation predicted for next year, I think a lot of things can happen from now and next summer. There might be executive action from the president, there could be legislative relief. I mean who knows.

Cheers

Iatiam

[rka_72]

TSC's slow pace will probably hit the filers with most PDs beyond 31 Aug 2008 since from 1st Sep NSC will take up 22 Jan 2009 onwards cases as well. If TSC doesn't catch up in remaining part of Aug, there will be hardly any visas left and for most in TSC its over until next year. :(

[helooo]

Hello Q,Spec and other Gurus,
My PD is 6/16/2008.We filed our 485 first time on 6/30/14 got FP notice for 8/4/14.We did early FP on 7/18/14.It says Initial review for EAD/AP since 7/1/2014 and Acceptance on 7/3/14 for 485.When can we expect EAD or if there is any possibility for GC?

Thanks

[qesehmk]

Hello Q,Spec and other Gurus,
My PD is 6/16/2008.We filed our 485 first time on 6/30/14 got FP notice for 8/4/14.We did early FP on 7/18/14.It says Initial review for EAD/AP since 7/1/2014 and Acceptance on 7/3/14 for 485.When can we expect EAD or if there is any possibility for GC?

Thanks
heloo - It would be reasonable to expect a GC in Sep if not in Oct. You should definitely be greened this year only.

[justvisiting]

kd,

Later PD would probably choose to defer the I-693 to a date when the COD reached their PD and USCIS issued an RFE for it.

A bit far out I know, but not entirely impossible. The main points against it are common sense and the need for cooperation between DOS and USCIS.

Thoughts?

Two problems with your approach:
-New applicants: Those who never filed an I-485 would not need to await an RFE
-Aggressive applicants: Nothing in the law compels you to wait for USCIS to issue an RFE before sending them updated medicals. In fact a good case can be made that if your I-485 is current you have a responsibility to send the new medicals to remain a "bona fide" applicant for adjustment of status.
USCIS would essentially have to make a regulation saying that an expired medical is only expired when USCIS says so on an RFE.

[Spectator]

Two problems with your approach:
-New applicants: Those who never filed an I-485 would not need to await an RFE
-Aggressive applicants: Nothing in the law compels you to wait for USCIS to issue an RFE before sending them updated medicals. In fact a good case can be made that if your I-485 is current you have a responsibility to send the new medicals to remain a "bona fide" applicant for adjustment of status.
USCIS would essentially have to make a regulation saying that an expired medical is only expired when USCIS says so on an RFE.justvisiting,

I don't think new applicants would be a problem. Their I-485 would take around 4 months to process, by which time the COD would have retrogressed back to to the "true" COD. Any applicants beyond 01MAY10 would, by definition be new applicants anyway. For applicants who got a chance to file with a late PD, submitting an I-693 with the I-485 would essentially be a waste of money.

Sure, it's true that applicants do not have to wait for an RFE to send in an updated I-693. I think most will wait for an RFE, since USCIS strongly encourages it. By the time the Medical is received and the case gets to an adjudicator, the COD might have retrogressed back to the "true" COD anyway. I don't think it is any big deal. I'm not sure CO could extend the COD for more than 2 months and he can internally retrogress to the 3rd month COD in the second month if necessary. If the COD doesn't get pulled back in a timely fashion, then it would be 2012 all over again.

There's no compulsion to always have a valid I-693 at all times. It doesn't make the I-485 any less "bone fide" if it is missing or expired. An RFE can be issued for it in either case. An expired or missing I-693 just means the case cannot be approved until the deficiency is rectified. I don't see that a new regulation is required. It is covered in the policy manual already.

[RMS_V13]

Quoting based on Trackkitt approvals. SEVERAL applicants including myself got approved yesterday, we were getting anxious since everyone around us seem to be getting theirs. This is the highest we have seen since July 1st. May be TSC was waiting for the Sept VB to start processing EB2 I. If the trend continues, early 2009 applicants can get their approval.

My opinion based on why TSC took so long is, the cases were not subjected to background checks in advance anticipating movement. BCs had to be re-run causing the extra delay. I feel the Additional Review status can be attributed to this. To support this, L2 told me that my app was not pre-adjudicated and he can't tell whats going on, except someone "looked" which is consistent with subjecting my file to some kind of processing

[Light@EOT]

Hi All

I have been a silent follower of this forum. It is doing a great job in throwing lot of light into all these chaos. Trying and finding some (lot of) patterns and predictions, taking out wild guesses. Good job guys, keep it up.

Now, I have a thought/ questions:

Many gurus say that there is no need for CO to build up inventory and he has enough for FY15.

With the latest visa bulletin moving the EB2-I dates to May 01, 2009, by the end of sept, my guestimate is that CO would be left with around 13K inventory. (Is this correct?). If not, what is the figure expected. (Out of these 13K, all of them may not be 100% fit for GC for some reason or other. Or why is that we still case from 2004, 5 and 6 in 485 pending inventory?. My guesstimate here is 1K no-fit cases)

Following the last few years trend, EB2-I is getting around 18K to 20K every year.

This being the case, for FY15, CO would still need around 6 to 8K more. (So as not to waste any visas). Assuming 2K from porting (again, is this correct?), he would still need around 4 to 6K more.

Allowing for processing time of 4 months, he would need to call these IN 4 months before last quarter of FY15. That should be somewhere in March or April. (Further I believe USCIS will be overloaded with H1B season).

So I believe (Hope) there is a chance for inventory buildup sometime early next spring.

I believe CO would rather collect and have more inventoried not so as not to waste VISAs.

Am I missing something (or lot of things?) Gurus, any thoughts on these lines?

[kd2008]

Hi All

I have been a silent follower of this forum. It is doing a great job in throwing lot of light into all these chaos. Trying and finding some (lot of) patterns and predictions, taking out wild guesses. Good job guys, keep it up.

Now, I have a thought/ questions:

Many gurus say that there is no need for CO to build up inventory and he has enough for FY15.

With the latest visa bulletin moving the EB2-I dates to May 01, 2009, by the end of sept, my guestimate is that CO would be left with around 13K inventory. (Is this correct?). If not, what is the figure expected. (Out of these 13K, all of them may not be 100% fit for GC for some reason or other. Or why is that we still case from 2004, 5 and 6 in 485 pending inventory?. My guesstimate here is 1K no-fit cases)

Following the last few years trend, EB2-I is getting around 18K to 20K every year.

This being the case, for FY15, CO would still need around 6 to 8K more. (So as not to waste any visas). Assuming 2K from porting (again, is this correct?), he would still need around 4 to 6K more.

Allowing for processing time of 4 months, he would need to call these IN 4 months before last quarter of FY15. That should be somewhere in March or April. (Further I believe USCIS will be overloaded with H1B season).

So I believe (Hope) there is a chance for inventory buildup sometime early next spring.

I believe CO would rather collect and have more inventoried not so as not to waste VISAs.

Am I missing something (or lot of things?) Gurus, any thoughts on these lines?

Light@EOT welcome to the forum. Please read the discussion between Spec & me in the last 5-6 pages regarding inventory build up.

[qesehmk]

So I believe (Hope) there is a chance for inventory buildup sometime early next spring.

Welcome Light. Yes there is a 60% chance as I see it today. If at end of 2015 EB2I only reaches Q1 2010 then CO doesn't have to build inventory during spring of 2015. He can wait until Sep of 2015.

So the question is will EB2I reach at least Q1 2010 by Sep 2015. Right now it is a bit premature to predict. But i think there is a slightly more than 50% chance that it will.

[imdeng]

Light@EOT - Welcome to the forum and excellent first post BTW.

Next year is a grey area mostly because we don't know how bad it is going to be. The headwinds are considerable. We are carrying unusually high amounts of inventory in EB1 and EB2-ROW/M/P. A lot of cases are stuck in the PERM slowdown. If next year turned out to be the one that clears the PERM pipeline and draws down the high inventory levels, then we might be left with very little spillover. If spillover is small enough then there will be no need for inventory buildup in FY2015.

OTOH - something of other unanticipated factor comes out every year. High SO this year because of PERM slowdown was not anticipated by many. If you see Matt's spreadsheet, his target dates kept going up through the year with each revision. Something else might come out to be significant next year. Any takers for crackdown on EB1C misuse :-)

[Light@EOT]

Welcome Light. Yes there is a 60% chance as I see it today. If at end of 2015 EB2I only reaches Q1 2010 then CO doesn't have to build inventory during spring of 2015. He can wait until Sep of 2015.

... but in this case, ( assuming EB2I gets around 18K) there would be none (or very little) left to start the new FY 2016 with... will that be a desirable case for CO... just a thought...

Further, spring is when H1 season starts and to avoid "Rush of workload" wont it be better for CO to collect it little earlier ( wishful thinking)

[Light@EOT]

13K + about 5K more (new applications and porters).

If the next year is very good for spillovers, yes, an inventory buildup will happen. It depends upon EB1 mainly where the spillover will come from.

sportsfan33 - you think 5K new + porter between now and then ( then being May 2010 PD assuming we reach there ...)

[jimmys]

I don't see CIS doing inventory build up in spring 2015.

There are enough reasons. 1. NOT all applicants prior to May 01,2009 are gonna get approved before next spring. There will be a few thousands left out if not more(I firmly believe this is the case. If the numbers are enough to cover May 1, 2009 then the CoD would have been July 1,2009 to avoid visa wastage. In addition to these there were a lot of RFEs that were sent as late as July). 2. There will be about 4K (If you follow the last few years' trend) porters/new applicants for the next one year.

If you add these figures, 13300 (Current pending inventory between May 01,2009 - May 01,2010 as per July 2014) + 4000 (approx) + 2000 (left outs) = 19300. 19300 - 2800 (Regular) = 16500. Even if the spillover is gonna be 15K(This year's spillover is at 15K???) next year I don't see a reason for inventory build up before Sep 2015. If (a big if indeed) there's gonna be more than 18K/20K spillover next year then the inventory build up may happen sooner than Sep 2015. This year's spillover was aided by slow PERM approvals of EB2WW applicants.

And, any inventory build up is not good for people who are yet to file 485(like me) with PD after May 01,2009 as it will take another year (or a couple of years) for them to see the GC due to massive date movements back and forth.

[bluelabel]

If inventory build up does not happen in spring 2015 then CO has to move dates to May 1st 2010 by early spring. if CO moves dates in early spring to 1st May 2010, he will have enough time to accurately calculate the demand by July 2015 otherwise CO has to aggressively move dates in last quarter FY2015 to build inventory.

[qesehmk]

... but in this case, ( assuming EB2I gets around 18K) there would be none (or very little) left to start the new FY 2016 with... will that be a desirable case for CO... just a thought...

Further, spring is when H1 season starts and to avoid "Rush of workload" wont it be better for CO to collect it little earlier ( wishful thinking)

As I said it all depends on how EB2I's prospects look in 2015.

In the scenario you mention there would still be 5K porters from 2015 and 5K in 2016.

[Kanmani]

As I said it all depends on how EB2I's prospects look in 2015.

In the scenario you mention there would still be 5K porters from 2015 and 5K in 2016.

Q,

My opinion is that in a normal year with no retrogression in the mid of the FY, porters account for 3k of the total eb2I approvals. 5k is on the upper end.

I do think that there will be a forward movement as early as may'15 to finish of the FY2015, further to generate demand.

[jimmys]

If inventory build up does not happen in spring 2015 then CO has to move dates to May 1st 2010 by early spring. if CO moves dates in early spring to 1st May 2010, he will have enough time to accurately calculate the demand by July 2015 otherwise CO has to aggressively move dates in last quarter FY2015 to build inventory.


For that to happen there should be very light utilization by both EB1 and EB2WW for the first two quarters. Unless it's going to be more than 15K spillover I don't see a reason for CO to move dates in spring beyond May 01,2010. If EB2WW PERM approvals pick up I won't be surprised if next year's spillover is somewhere between 8-10K.

I don't have the correct numbers yet. But,even with low EB2WW PERM approvals this year's spillover was 10K (approx between Jun/Jul 08 - May 01,2009) + 5K porters (approx) = 15K in total (approx). It's just the ballpark figure.

If EB1 and EB5 consume their quota, and EB2WW PERM approval starts picking up the spillover scenario for 2015 is bleak as of now. Of course, it could change if any of the underlying circumstances change. But the probability for that to happen is low.

[qesehmk]

Q,

My opinion is that in a normal year with no retrogression in the mid of the FY, porters account for 3k of the total eb2I approvals. 5k is on the upper end.

I do think that there will be a forward movement as early as may'15 to finish of the FY2015, further to generate demand.
Kanmani - I think 3K is an old number. It's been a while I have been using 5K. But I admit I haven't verified it quite well. Besides if anything it makes the forecast conservative. And as immigration situation becomes acute we may see the number grow. If you think about it EB3 folks in 2004/5/6/7/8 will all try to upgrade ... even 9/10/11. Why not. So finding 5K folks among approx 60-80K people is not that hard.

I am optimistic that there will be an inventory build up. But I will wait to pass even a preliminary judgement on it until the 2015 picture is somewhat clear.

[jimmys]

Oct 2014 inventory data would be a right place to start.

[bieber]

Kanmani,

I'm unable to send private messages, how can we create space?

here is what I wanted to say, sorry about cut off date, one thing for sure, next FY is yours. I was in exactly same spot last year.

[tenyearsgone]

If you think about it EB3 folks in 2004/5/6/7/8 will all try to upgrade ... even 9/10/11. Why not.

This is certainly true esp. in the hot job markets. Anecdotally, I have seen this happening a bunch of times in the Bay Area where folks from 08/09 have proactively upgraded and 2010 folks are contemplating it in anticipation of EB2I date movement.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

I'm unable to send private messages, how can we create space?

here is what I wanted to say, sorry about cut off date, one thing for sure, next FY is yours. I was in exactly same spot last year.

Thanks B. These RFEs and the hint from CO about dates moving to spring ( I hate that word :)) gave confidence (I’m The King Of The World woooho whooohoooo”- kind of ) for some time. I am alright now.

Regarding PM, you must clear some old messages to create space. If you think they are precious, you can move them to a word document and save it .

[Kanmani]

Kanmani - I think 3K is an old number. It's been a while I have been using 5K. But I admit I haven't verified it quite well. Besides if anything it makes the forecast conservative. And as immigration situation becomes acute we may see the number grow. If you think about it EB3 folks in 2004/5/6/7/8 will all try to upgrade ... even 9/10/11. Why not. So finding 5K folks among approx 60-80K people is not that hard.

I am optimistic that there will be an inventory build up. But I will wait to pass even a preliminary judgement on it until the 2015 picture is somewhat clear.

People from 2004 to '11 are upgrading constantly, not all , people are still stuck for valid reasons. The up-gradation takes place all over the year but the window for visa allotment has shrunken. This gate closing policy of DoS by retrogressing the dates prohibits a porter to reserve a place holder on the next available visa line. I still think 3k is on the run. Opinions differ.

[Kanmani]

First of all i am sorry for posting this topic here. i dont know how to start a new thread ..Please move this to a different thread .

Question regarding finger printing appointment: when we go to the ASC is just passport enough as identification document? Actually my son does not have Non-driver photo ID. So i have just his passport. is that enough or i need to get a Non-driver photo ID from DMV.

Please help gurus..

Newguy,

You can certainly use the passport as photo id. I am sure about that.

[qesehmk]

People from 2004 to '11 are upgrading constantly, not all , people are still stuck for valid reasons. The up-gradation takes place all over the year but the window for visa allotment has shrunken. This gate closing policy of DoS by retrogressing the dates prohibits a porter to reserve a place holder on the next available visa line. I still think 3k is on the run. Opinions differ.
It makes it difficult but the moment gates open .... the crowd can run through. So on a full year basis I am more comfortable with 5K. As you say yes ... opinions can differ and so does comfort level of prediction.

[TeddyKoochu]

Kanmani and Q, Iam fairly sure Q would remember this.

- Porting was calculated way back as the reduction of EB3I inventory over a year minus the annual cap.
- This is a overstatement because we assumed that every case that fell into this category is porting.
- The only time this was done was back in 2011 and the number was calculated as 3K, this could never be done later on as CP numbers were mixed with inventory next year.
- Now back in 2010 - 2011 EB3-I inventory used to be 60K now its 30K, so you would notice that potential candidates for porting is kind of half.
- Now if you dig deeper into this most of the folks who are stuck now are either a) Having a 3 yr degree or a combination that cannot be evaluated as a 4Yr degree b) People stuck in companies which have a policy of 'No porting' even for people who are Directors by now c) People who are happy to be on EAD.
- Only people who are in category b) can potentially port even though the condition for EB3-I is absolutely horrible.

Just my personal thought is that porting number should not go up and even in the worst case scenario should stay at 3K because the number of potential porters is less now. Honestly there is no way to count upgrades for people who have not filed their 485 from Jul 2007 to Till date maybe an assumption that 2/3rds for India are ultimately EB2 is closer to reality.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

Nice to hear from you. I think the inventory is much more than 30K. I think it is closer to 60-80K if you count 2007 till 2014 that never had chance to file.


Kanmani and Q, Iam fairly sure Q would remember this.

- Porting was calculated way back as the reduction of EB3I inventory over a year minus the annual cap.
- This is a overstatement because we assumed that every case that fell into this category is porting.
- The only time this was done was back in 2011 and the number was calculated as 3K, this could never be done later on as CP numbers were mixed with inventory next year.
- Now back in 2010 - 2011 EB3-I inventory used to be 60K now its 30K, so you would notice that potential candidates for porting is kind of half.
- Now if you dig deeper into this most of the folks who are stuck now are either a) Having a 3 yr degree or a combination that cannot be evaluated as a 4Yr degree b) People stuck in companies which have a policy of 'No porting' even for people who are Directors by now c) People who are happy to be on EAD.
- Only people who are in category b) can potentially port even though the condition for EB3-I is absolutely horrible.

Just my personal thought is that porting number should not go up and even in the worst case scenario should stay at 3K because the number of potential porters is less now. Honestly there is no way to count upgrades for people who have not filed their 485 from Jul 2007 to Till date maybe an assumption that 2/3rds for India are ultimately EB2 is closer to reality.

[Kanmani]

Thanks Teddy. I included those you categorized under (a) and (b) in my calculation, as I know many EB3 ers who have no option to upgrade, but well placed, well paid and living in 750k houses around VA.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

Nice to hear from you. I think the inventory is much more than 30K. I think it is closer to 60-80K if you count 2007 till 2014 that never had chance to file.

The USCIS inventory count is 30K but that is only folks till Jul 2007. I think you are right about the grand total. Typically in a year EB2-3 maybe 50-50 but filing in EB3 it seems is just an aid to get H1B extension or reserve ones place in the queue in reality the EB2-3 split is really closer to 2:1. The number of EB3's post 2007 is the main area where the porting is happening and those folks are not in the inventory yet.

[qesehmk]

The USCIS inventory count is 30K but that is only folks till Jul 2007. I think you are right about the grand total. Typically in a year EB2-3 maybe 50-50 but filing in EB3 it seems is just an aid to get H1B extension or reserve ones place in the queue in reality the EB2-3 split is really closer to 2:1. The number of EB3's post 2007 is the main area where the porting is happening and those folks are not in the inventory yet.

Teddy you are right about EB2:3 split. In terms of porting though one doesn't need to be in the inventory to port. That's why I am at 5K.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy you are right about EB2:3 split. In terms of porting though one doesn't need to be in the inventory to port. That's why I am at 5K.

Q what is your high level split of the 5k pre and post Jul 2007. For the full set of people 5k is a very reasonable number.

[qesehmk]

Q what is your high level split of the 5k pre and post Jul 2007. For the full set of people 5k is a very reasonable number.

All 5K is pre 2007. If we think about post 2007 then the number is much higher.

But the way I think about portings is in terms of its effect on EB2 SOFAD for non-portings cases. In other words if we start the year with 20K EB2I backlog and SOFAD comes in exactly at 20K ... how much EB2I backlog we will see? The answer to me is 5K because of the 20K 5K will be required for portings.

How do we verify this. ... its actually easier than you might think.

Just look at EB3I 485 inventory
Jul 2013 - 41K
Jul 2014 - 30K

That's 11K reduction. EB3I received 6K last year. But forget that because the timeline is Jul-Jul so not quite meaningful to take out 6K from 11K.

However I hope you get the point. In a normal year if there is 11K reduction and 3K is quota. Then where is 8K going? Even if you attribute 3K to various other reasons like denials abandonments or higher level of approvals under quota ..... it still leaves 5K to go to EB2 which is why those cases are disappearing from EB3I inventory.

Now consider this ... I am not even taking into account EB3 NVC data.

Thus 5K pre 2007 portings per year is a fairly ok estimate.

[TeddyKoochu]

All 5K is pre 2007. If we think about post 2007 then the number is much higher.

But the way I think about portings is in terms of its effect on EB2 SOFAD for non-portings cases. In other words if we start the year with 20K EB2I backlog and SOFAD comes in exactly at 20K ... how much EB2I backlog we will see? The answer to me is 5K because of the 20K 5K will be required for portings.

How do we verify this. ... its actually easier than you might think.

Just look at EB3I 485 inventory
Jul 2013 - 41K
Jul 2014 - 30K

That's 11K reduction. EB3I received 6K last year. But forget that because the timeline is Jul-Jul so not quite meaningful to take out 6K from 11K.

However I hope you get the point. In a normal year if there is 11K reduction and 3K is quota. Then where is 8K going? Even if you attribute 3K to various other reasons like denials abandonments or higher level of approvals under quota ..... it still leaves 5K to go to EB2 which is why those cases are disappearing from EB3I inventory.

Now consider this ... I am not even taking into account EB3 NVC data.

Thus 5K pre 2007 portings per year is a fairly ok estimate.

Q good derivation for the porting number. I agree most of it is porting some other things that maybe playing out here are a) Spouse getting approved in 2007 and then getting citizenship and now dependent getting GC under FB b) Abandonment and returning to home country and c) Cross chargeability with spouse having country of birth other than India, this number is very significant, even if spouse were in EB3, EB3 ROW is in 2011 and had touched 2012 briefly.

[qesehmk]

c) Cross chargeability with spouse having country of birth other than India.
Good morning Teddy! This thing you mention reminds me of two of my friends who ended up marrying Koreans and Russians! I agree it's not that uncommon.

[anuprab]

all these calculations and possibility that dates may not move post May 2010 even in fiscal 2015 is making me dizzy. Experts is there really no hope for people from May 2010 in 2015 fiscal! Do I have to wait till summer of 2016 to even file 485??

[cursedguy]

No offense to the experts, but right now they are working with limited data, they will have a better idea after this USCIS fiscal is complete.

[anuprab]

I guess you are right but I am just so frustrated and trying to find some hope. Guess its just wait and watch right now, cant jump to any conclusions.

[redwood]

EB3I received 7,816 last year.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableV-PartII.pdf

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011



All 5K is pre 2007. If we think about post 2007 then the number is much higher.

But the way I think about portings is in terms of its effect on EB2 SOFAD for non-portings cases. In other words if we start the year with 20K EB2I backlog and SOFAD comes in exactly at 20K ... how much EB2I backlog we will see? The answer to me is 5K because of the 20K 5K will be required for portings.

How do we verify this. ... its actually easier than you might think.

Just look at EB3I 485 inventory
Jul 2013 - 41K
Jul 2014 - 30K

That's 11K reduction. EB3I received 6K last year. But forget that because the timeline is Jul-Jul so not quite meaningful to take out 6K from 11K.

However I hope you get the point. In a normal year if there is 11K reduction and 3K is quota. Then where is 8K going? Even if you attribute 3K to various other reasons like denials abandonments or higher level of approvals under quota ..... it still leaves 5K to go to EB2 which is why those cases are disappearing from EB3I inventory.

Now consider this ... I am not even taking into account EB3 NVC data.

Thus 5K pre 2007 portings per year is a fairly ok estimate.

[qesehmk]

EB3I received 7,816 last year.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableV-PartII.pdf

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011

Thanks redwood. I was not being precise. Not sure if you got the point. So let me explain again ...

of those 8K ... roughly 2K would be from last quarter. So take out those 2K reduction from 11k. That's 9K for reduction in 2014 for first 3 quarters.

Assume full year will be 9K only i.e. EB3I has exhausted the quota. So that's 6K extra over quota.

So where have those 6K gone this year?

Answer is - portings, cancellations and denials. Denials are not usually more than 5%. So that's negligible. So basically its portings and cancellations.

I would rather have cancellations even out with the NVC data reduction that is not factored in here. So 6K is purely for portings.

The only caveat here is if EB3I received more than its quota. I think that's an extremely low probability this year because this year ROW was retrogressed in EB3 - which was not the case last year. Last year EB3ROW moved rapidly forward and hence was in the mode of building inventory.

Thus portings in EB3I to EB2I are approx 5-6K.

p.s. - Correction - actually an assumption is not required.

Comparing Oct 12/Oct 13 EB3I reduced from 47K->34K = 13K. Of that 8K is allocation and so 5K is portings + denials. As I said I let NVC data take care of denials. And so 5K certainly was the number for portings last year.

This year however, the picture is different.

Looking at Oct 2013 and Jul 2014 485 inventory one can see only 4.3K reduction in the inventory. On a full year basis that's 5.6K. Not sure how much NVC would be. But strictly based on this data it doesnt look like it's going to be 5K portings pre 2007 for year 2014. It actually does look like under 3K. Of course Q4 is where most of the action happens. So we can't say for sure. But if only consider what we know so far then indeed for 2014 the number look like under 3K.

[gkjppp]

Most likely 2014 GC quota ends at May 1st ,2009.Any guestimate on 2015 GC forward movement? Any Calculations?



Makesesnse.so endof 2015 or early 2016 i should get my GC.EB2 Perm to GC 6 Years ,it is leaning towards 7+ years... Not sure where is immigration reform/Executinve Order


EB3I received 7,816 last year.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableV-PartII.pdf

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011

[helooo]

Hello Q,

Any idea when will TSC start issuing EAD.It is already 45 days.

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Hello Q,

Any idea when will TSC start issuing EAD.It is already 45 days.

Thanks!
Sorry heloo. No idea about that. Did you try calling them up?

45 days is not a lot of time for you to be concerned anyway unless you are running out of time for something else?

[helooo]

Sorry heloo. No idea about that. Did you try calling them up?

45 days is not a lot of time for you to be concerned anyway unless you are running out of time for something else?

I have Canadian PR and we have to reenter to Canada before August 31st and then stay there for next three years to keep that.I thought we"ll get GC before that and surrender the CA PR but things are not clear at this point.

[qesehmk]

I have Canadian PR and we have to reenter to Canada before August 31st and then stay there for next three years to keep that.I thought we"ll get GC before that and surrender the CA PR but things are not clear at this point.
In that case call TSC up and ask the status on your application.

p.s. - Be careful about trying to keep hand on two stones. There are some horror stories at US canada border where people went to Canada for getting PR while their US GC was being processed and the US border folks cancelled their H1 and everything because they didn't like the fact that the person was trying to do both at the same time. You can google those online. Don't mean to scare you. Just want you to be aware of it.

[helooo]

In that case call TSC up and ask the status on your application.

p.s. - Be careful about trying to keep hand on two stones. There are some horror stories at US canada border where people went to Canada for getting PR while their US GC was being processed and the US border folks cancelled their H1 and everything because they didn't like the fact that the person was trying to do both at the same time. You can google those online. Don't mean to scare you. Just want you to be aware of it.
Yes,I heard that and frankly I don't want to live in CA anyways.Even I was asked lot of questions when I came from CA last time.Last year lot of my friends who filed for first time got EAD in 30-35 days and GC in 50-60days but it's different this year.Thats why I was trying to get your opinion.

[rka_72]

Spec, Q and Gurus...
Do you think TSC will be able to process cases beyond the cases current in Jul bulletin (i.e. cases from 1st Sep to 22nd Jan) before NSC starts eating up visas from 22Jan2009-01May2009 from 01SEP? Is TSC having too many cases prior to 01SEP2008 that they are not able to handle?

[EB2-03252009]

Hi,

My Pd is going to be current next month, and I am going to file my i-485(TSC) in first week of September. What are my chances of getting greened this year?

Thanks!!!

[drop2ocean]

Gurus,

What are the chances of getting EAD for June 15 2010 EB2I next year ?

Appreciate your response.

[HR3012]

Slim to none. At the current state of affairs, some July filers may receive GCs in October, that's about it. No chance for August and September filers.

Are you serious sports???

[jimmys]

Hi,

My Pd is going to be current next month, and I am going to file my i-485(TSC) in first week of September. What are my chances of getting greened this year?

Thanks!!!

If you file it on Sep 2,2014 and the dates don't retrogress for the rest of the year you have a chance. If the dates retrogress in Nov as mentioned by VO the chances are slim to none.

[EB2EB2]

Finally my date got current. Does that mean the GC card will arrive in mail in a couple of months ? Guru's, please can you give me some idea ?

PD: Feb 9, 2009 | NSC | EB2I.

[Spectator]

Finally my date got current. Does that mean the GC card will arrive in mail in a couple of months ? Guru's, please can you give me some idea ?

PD: Feb 9, 2009 | NSC | EB2I.You don't give sufficient information.

What is the RD for your I-485?

Is the Medical expired?

Have you received and replied to a RFE if applicable?

If there is no RFE required, it's probably 50/50 unless the processing speed picks up (which may happen).

You will only be current from September 1, 2014 so there is likely no more than a 2 month window for your case to be approved.

[pdfeb09]

Finally my date got current. Does that mean the GC card will arrive in mail in a couple of months ? Guru's, please can you give me some idea ?

PD: Feb 9, 2009 | NSC | EB2I.

Although there is no guarantee... there is a high chance that you will get your GC in Sept./Oct. time frame. You will be current starting 1st of Sept. 2014. Hopefully the dates will either stay put or move ahead in Oct. (new FY visa numbers). Most likely, the 2008 backlog will be cleared before most of the 2009ers start getting their visas.

I assume you have replied to the general RFE that everybody's been getting...

Edit: I am also assuming that the rate of approvals will pick up very soon and continue to be great thereafter ..

Edit:

Spec, I figured from his older posts that he had already filed for AOS during the Feb/March 2012 period.. other than the slow pace of approval, do you see any issue with his case? Like bumping up against the available visa number limits .. ?

[EB2EB2]

Originally Posted by EB2EB2 View Post
Finally my date got current. Does that mean the GC card will arrive in mail in a couple of months ? Guru's, please can you give me some idea ?

PD: Feb 9, 2009 | NSC | EB2I.




You don't give sufficient information.

What is the RD for your I-485?

Is the Medical expired?

Have you received and replied to a RFE if applicable?

If there is no RFE required, it's probably 50/50 unless the processing speed picks up (which may happen).

You will only be current from September 1, 2014 so there is likely no more than a 2 month window for your case to be approved.


Hi Spectator, RD for my I-485 is Feb 10th, 2012. Medical was expired, got the RFE, and responded to RFE on July 11, 2014.

[bvsamrat]

is there is any rule or practice that 2008 backlog is to be cleared before 2009?
I guess that once current all PD will have equal choice


Although there is no guarantee... there is a high chance that you will get your GC in Sept./Oct. time frame. You will be current starting 1st of Sept. 2014. Hopefully the dates will either stay put or move ahead in Oct. (new FY visa numbers). Most likely, the 2008 backlog will be cleared before most of the 2009ers start getting their visas.

I assume you have replied to the general RFE that everybody's been getting...

Edit: I am also assuming that the rate of approvals will pick up very soon and continue to be great thereafter ..

Edit:

Spec, I figured from his older posts that he had already filed for AOS during the Feb/March 2012 period.. other than the slow pace of approval, do you see any issue with his case? Like bumping up against the available visa number limits .. ?

Is there

[Kanmani]

bvsamrat,

In general, for the applicants from non-retrogressed countries, they process FIFO. During Spill-over season, it is expected that they approve in ascending order,the oldest PD first . Since the applications are spread over numerous adjudicators, it is impossible to do so.

To summarize, we really don't know.

[Fedup14]

Hi,

This could be stupid question ... but i'm not sure, where ever i read - most of the guys were stating -- eb4 / eb5 will be using all their visa's(spill over will be less). I'm really confused over here as when i checked inventory from oct 2013 to july 2014, overall usage seems less for these 2 categories..
e.g.
Eb4 -
Oct 2013 jan 2014 apr 2014 jul 2014
1062 1353 1187 1529

Eb5
18 654 59 180

if i add all these figures then also total visa allocation for these categories will be
eb4 = 5131
eb5 == 911

Considering both these categories are given around 10000 visa's each, why we shouldn't expect a good spill over from these categories?

[Spectator]

Hi,

This could be stupid question ... but i'm not sure, where ever i read - most of the guys were stating -- eb4 / eb5 will be using all their visa's(spill over will be less). I'm really confused over here as when i checked inventory from oct 2013 to july 2014, overall usage seems less for these 2 categories..
e.g.
Eb4 -
Oct 2013 jan 2014 apr 2014 jul 2014
1062 1353 1187 1529

Eb5
18 654 59 180

if i add all these figures then also total visa allocation for these categories will be
eb4 = 5131
eb5 == 911

Considering both these categories are given around 10000 visa's each, why we shouldn't expect a good spill over from these categories?Fedup14,

Welcome to the forum.

No question is ever stupid.

Here's my thoughts.

The quality of the data in the USCIS Inventory is slightly questionable, but the main point to note is that it only covers those people who have chosen to adjust status in the USA by filing an I-485.

Notably missing from the USCIS data is the number of cases that undergo Consular Processing, which is signifiacant for some Categories and Countries.

From last FY figures, the % using AOS was:

EB4 - 80%
EB5 - 15%

Your figures would become :

EB4 - 5,131 / 80% * 100% = 6,414

In FY2013, EB4 used 6,446 visas.

EB5 - 911 / 85% * 100% = 6,073

In FY2013, EB5 used 8,564 visas.

Now looking at the trends for each Category, we could look at the underlying petition approvals for each Category.

For EB4, that would be the I-360 and for EB5 that would be the I-526.

EB4 (I-360)

From the USCIS Dashboard, the average monthly Receipts and Completions are:

Receipts

FY2012 - 1,599
FY2013 - 1,681
FY2014 - 1,661 (figures available to May 2014 only)

Completions

FY2012 - 1,222
FY2013 - 1,958
FY2014 - 2,030 (figures available to May 2014 only)

The data available suggests that EB4 approvals will be fairly level. That could give as much as 3.5k spillover to EB1. DOS doesn't release much info about EB4 approvals during the year.

EB5 (I-526)

Here, the increasing backlog of I-526 cases is probably the best indicator. Currently, the USCIS figures state that it takes 13.2 months to process an I-526, so the recent figures are at least a year away from showing up as approvals.

Backlog

May 2012 - 2,776
May 2013 - 6,228
May 2014 - 9,668

Given that the approval rate for an I-526 has generally been in the 80-85% range and that each I-526 approval leads to about 3 EB5 visas being used, it is fairly clear that EB5 will exceed their allocation of about 10k in the very near future.

Charles Oppenheim has already warned that he expects to have to retrogress EB5-China (who use 90% of EB5) as early as June 2015 and not later than August 2015 next year. See this article (http://imlaw.biz/news) (July 16, 2014) and this article (http://www.eb5investors.com/blog/eb5-visa-numbers-china-retrogression).

Hence, there should be no expectation of spare visas from EB5 going forward.

Finally, it's not yet clear yet whether EB1 will need to use some of any Fall Up from EB4/EB5. That would reduce the amount available to EB2.

Hope that helps and clarifies the situation and perhaps explains why people to not have great hopes for EB5 in particular.

[CleanSock]

No sure if someone else posted this before. If so, please ignore. Latest I485 inventory has been released

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/EB-I-485-Pending-Inventory-July2014.pdf

[rka_72]

Spec/Q/gurus
Based on the latest inventory data and approvals so far, when do you think the TSC will start approving Aug current cases or Are they going to wait till Sep 1st?

[vik123]

Office of Foreign Labor Certifications Releases Update of Prevailing Wage Determination Factsheet for 3rd Quarter of 2014

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PW_Selected_Statistics_FY2014_Q3TD.pdf

[qesehmk]

Spec/Q/gurus
Based on the latest inventory data and approvals so far, when do you think the TSC will start approving Aug current cases or Are they going to wait till Sep 1st?
rka - unfortunately I can't answer that question.

Generally speaking a service center may not be able to process some cases even though they are current. The reason is simple ... the service center also must prioritize and schedule all the current cases and that too by how far they are along in processing. Long story short ... even if TSC starts with Aug currrent cases in September - I wouldn't blame them. I do not know their load factor and what not.

[Spectator]

The All Forms (http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-all-uscis-application-and-petition-form-types) and Adjustment of Status (Form I-485 Application) (http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-form-i-485-application-adjustment-status) data for Q3 FY2014 has been released.

[docgana]

Folks,

Does anyone know if changing in address and filing AR-11 delays the processing of application? I have a June'08 priority date and has been waiting since July'14 for any update on the RFE response sent.

Regards,

[ramaka02]

No, but once AR11 is sent, call USCIS and confirm the change of address on file in their system. You should also receive a confirmation email on the change of address also.


Folks,

Does anyone know if changing in address and filing AR-11 delays the processing of application? I have a June'08 priority date and has been waiting since July'14 for any update on the RFE response sent.

Regards,

[kd2008]

Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim: August 12, 2014 (Updated 8/20/14) http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=49304
DOS Liaison Committee series of monthly “check-ins” with Charlie Oppenheim, designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections, beyond the basic visa availability updates provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin.
AILA Doc. No. 14071401.

Folks of these forum should check whether they can get access to this document and if they get it then post at least the summary here.


Oh law firm says: 08/20/2014: Impact of Potential OBAMA EB Fix Excluding Dependent Family Members from EB ** Numberical Limit

AILA liaison reportedly asked Mr. Oppenheim of DOS the potential impact of such reform on immigration visa cut-off dates and his answer was that it would accelerate cut-offs but cut-offs would still exist in the family-based peference immigrant visa categories, while such fix would result in all of EB visa categories immediately becoming current and continuously remaining current for the foreseeable future. But within a year of two, filing and approval of new petitions could require cut-off dates for some preferences for some countries. Interesting....................................... ..........

Stupid as usual since Spec's fabulous analysis at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2033-Discussion-On-The-Politics-of-Immigration-Reform-(Comprehensive-Or-Otherwise)?p=48775#post48775 has clearly shown it is not possible.

[bvsamrat]

FIFO is out of the door when the applications are divided over several officers and low hanging fruits (as explained by SPEC some time back) are those without any complications (either by officers or by applicant's specific nature. This is the one of the main reasons as to why the priority date has been extended to 4 months ahead as they knew that some cases would take long time (the percentage is not known, but pundits might estimate based on trackitt).

The check in procedure once PD becomes current might have some time bound checks which would vary for each case and this will take FIFO out of equation in general. (when all steps/checks being identical then FIFO might look practical.

Sorry, I am not able to explain more than this, But this MHO




bvsamrat,

In general, for the applicants from non-retrogressed countries, they process FIFO. During Spill-over season, it is expected that they approve in ascending order,the oldest PD first . Since the applications are spread over numerous adjudicators, it is impossible to do so.

To summarize, we really don't know.

[maverick2Seattle]

Hi Guru,

One of my colleague told me about this forum and I that makes me new to this forum. My PD July 2008. I-485, I-131 and I-765 were filed on July 30, 2014. When do you guys think I will get EAD and GC?

Thank you very much in advance.

Mav.

[avkeb2]

Gurus,

I got email notifications on mine and my spouse cases that it has been transferred to local office for further processing.
Could somebody tell if this is something to worry or what does this mean to case processing.

Initial Review

On August 20, 2014, we transferred your I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS, to your local USCIS Office for further processing. The new office has jurisdiction over your case and will send you a decision as soon as processing is complete or you will be notified if further information or action is needed


PD: OCT 2008
RD: 01/2012
AC21: 11/2013
RFE: 06/11/2014
USCIS received RFE reply : 07/14/2014
Congressman enquiry on 08/18/2014 and got reply as officer is reviewing your application and they would contact you soon. With in 2 days I got the above status alert on our cases.

Please advise. Thank you.

[avkeb2]

Gurus,

I got email notifications on mine and my spouse cases that it has been transferred to local office for further processing.
Could you somebody tell if this is something to worry or what does this mean to case processing.

Initial Review

On August 20, 2014, we transferred your I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS, to your local USCIS Office for further processing. The new office has jurisdiction over your case and will send you a decision as soon as processing is complete or you will be notified if further information or action is needed

My PD: Oct 2008
RD: Jan 2012
AC21 filed: 11/2013
RFE : 06/11/2014
RFE Replied: 07/14/2014
RFE details: EVL, EAD copies, I-94, Medicals

Did Congressman enquiry on 08/18/2014 and got reply as officer is reviewing your application and they would contact you soon.

[avkeb2]

Thanks for the reply Sportsfan33. Appreciate for spending time.

I took info pass appt on 08/26, hopefully they can provide more insight as you said.

Meanwhile when I called USICS customer service, 1st level Cust. Serv. Rep told me nothing wrong with my case but it got transfered, when I asked if they see any issue with my case. She did not tell me where it got transferred though.

When I contacted my corporate attorney(fr@@@@en), their response is like, sometimes USCIS does these inorder to balance the work load.

I researched myself in trackitt and this forum, did not get much info. Looks like for some ppl they got interview, for some it was pending for long time. Not sure what is going on with my case.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I'm a first-time filer (filed in 1st week of July with a PD of 24th July 2008). First week of august we did fingerprinting and got it stamped. Yesterday, we received one more fp appointment notice. I called up the NSC and the rep couldn't provide any detail on why the 2nd notice was issued.

Can anybody whose been through a similar situation advise on what next steps we can and specifically 'how do I get information on why the 2nd appointment notice was issued'? (If it was done by mistake and probably all it takes is to find that one right person who can fix it so that our application doesn't get into a bottleneck)

Also, is the retrogression expected for Nov 1 or Dec 1st?

[qesehmk]

Don't want to freak you out IIWTT. But it could be that they got a false positive with some undesirable person in their database. Or another - rather benign possibility - they lost it. I can't think of anything else. I am sure this is simple stuff. Just do what is being asked. Dont think too much.



I'm a first-time filer (filed in 1st week of July with a PD of 24th July 2008). First week of august we did fingerprinting and got it stamped. Yesterday, we received one more fp appointment notice. I called up the NSC and the rep couldn't provide any detail on why the 2nd notice was issued.

Can anybody whose been through a similar situation advise on what next steps we can and specifically 'how do I get information on why the 2nd appointment notice was issued'? (If it was done by mistake and probably all it takes is to find that one right person who can fix it so that our application doesn't get into a bottleneck)

Also, is the retrogression expected for Nov 1 or Dec 1st?

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Don't want to freak you out IIWTT. But it could be that they got a false positive with some undesirable person in their database. Or another - rather benign possibility - they lost it. I can't think of anything else. I am sure this is simple stuff. Just do what is being asked. Dont think too much.

Thanks for your response, Qesehmk.

I'm not freaked out but when you don't get any information in such a situation I get irritated. Actually, we got a fp for all in the family. So, we were thinking that they messed up the first appointment.

It presents a big hassle because we got travel into boston (which is a nightmare on a weekday)..and my wife has to take time off from work & we've to pull my daughter from school for the day. Thinking about all these increases my irritation:mad:

We are thinking of trying a walkin to another ASC in the boston area early next week before school starts to try our luck on getting an fp done.

[qesehmk]

I hear u ...
Hopefully this should go smooth.
Thanks for your response, Qesehmk.

I'm not freaked out but when you don't get any information in such a situation I get irritated. Actually, we got a fp for all in the family. So, we were thinking that they messed up the first appointment.

It presents a big hassle because we got travel into boston (which is a nightmare on a weekday)..and my wife has to take time off from work & we've to pull my daughter from school for the day. Thinking about all these increases my irritation:mad:

We are thinking of trying a walkin to another ASC in the boston area early next week before school starts to try our luck on getting an fp done.

[Dan2013]

Almost every one who filed in July are getting second FP notices its a glitch at their end, although it seems simple IT glitch the concerning part for me is that I hope July filers don’t lose their place in processing Queue as waiting for FP and August cases getting processed ahead of them.

[helooo]

I'm a first-time filer (filed in 1st week of July with a PD of 24th July 2008). First week of august we did fingerprinting and got it stamped. Yesterday, we received one more fp appointment notice. I called up the NSC and the rep couldn't provide any detail on why the 2nd notice was issued.

Can anybody whose been through a similar situation advise on what next steps we can and specifically 'how do I get information on why the 2nd appointment notice was issued'? (If it was done by mistake and probably all it takes is to find that one right person who can fix it so that our application doesn't get into a bottleneck)

Also, is the retrogression expected for Nov 1 or Dec 1st?There is some problem in the system.I did FP in July and again got the FP notice for 9/2/14.I saw on Trackitt that of folks who filed in July got this second FP notices.I am going Monday for FP and will update.

[glennphil]

Hi, My PD 09/23/14 EB3 PHIL, is there a possibility that it may current on Oct visa bulletin? thanks

[imdeng]

Replied to you in the EB3 thread. Please continue the discussion there. Also - the year is mistyped in one of your messages.

Hi, My PD 09/23/14 EB3 PHIL, is there a possibility that it may current on Oct visa bulletin? thanks

[Spectator]

The Oh website (http://www.immigration-law.com/) is reporting


08/23/2014: Effective 08/23/2014, China EB-5 Visa Unavailable Until 09/30/2014

AILA has reported that China EB-5 numbers for FY 2014 has been reached and effective today, EB-5 visa number will be unavailable for the Chinese until the end of the FY 2014, 09/30/2014. Reportedly, those cases for which interviews have been scheduled and visa number could have been reserved are not affected by the current visa exhaustion notice. For details, please contact the visa posts.

On the AILA website (http://aila.org/RecentPosting/RecentPostingList.aspx) there is indeed an alert:


8/23/2014 DOS Alert: China EB-5 “Unavailable” for Remainder of FY2014

Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the DOS Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division announced at the AILA EB-5 conference that effective Saturday, August 23, 2014, the maximum number of visas that may be made available for use by China EB-5 applicants during FY2014 has been reached.
AILA Doc. No. 14082360.

The actual document is restricted to AILA members, so I can't see any more than that.

Note that visas already allocated to consulates for September will be honored. Most EB-5 visas are issued at consulates, rather than AOS.

Internal retrogression for China is pretty much the same as saying EB-5 will reach their FY2014 allocation of 10,667 visas.

UPDATE :- This is the official announcement (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/China%20Employment%20Fifth%20Preference.pdf) from DOS.

[qesehmk]

Spec

don't you think that this is a rather non-news in the sense EB5 china limit is 3K and should've been reached long back.

If there is any news here then it is that china will not receive further visas and there will be significantly spillover available for EB2I.

That's how I read it. Do you think that makes sense.

The Oh website (http://www.immigration-law.com/) is reporting



On the AILA website (http://aila.org/RecentPosting/RecentPostingList.aspx) there is indeed an alert:



The actual document is restricted to AILA members, so I can't see any more than that.

Note that visas already allocated to consulates for September will be honored. Most EB-5 visas are issued at consulates, rather than AOS.

[Spectator]

Spec

don't you think that this is a rather non-news in the sense EB5 china limit is 3K and should've been reached long back.

If there is any news here then it is that china will not receive further visas and there will be significantly spillover available for EB2I.

That's how I read it. Do you think that makes sense.Q,

Technically, EB5 started the year with an allocation of only 47 visas (747 less the reduction of 700 due to the Chinese Student Protection Act). The allocation is zero in a year with only 140k visas. The number is slightly higher than reported in this document (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf) because the final EB allocation was 150,241.

In that sense all EB-5 visas made available to China are FA. EB5-China use is limited to the number of visas that other Countries do not require.

Hence, if no visas are available to China in EB5, it means other Countries are expected to use the difference between the total allocation for EB-5 and Chinese use. Put another way, it means EB-5 has reached (or is expected to reach) their full allocation for the FY of 10,667 visas.

This would be the first time that EB-5 has ever used the full allocation available to it - I think that is noteworthy.

I did edit my original post to make that point clear, but you had posted while I was doing that.

[qesehmk]

I had that thought at the back of my mind. But then I wondered why would they report it as EB5 china reached limit. Why wouldn't they say EB5 has reached its limit.
Q,

Technically, EB5 started the year with an allocation of only 47 visas (747 less the reduction of 700 due to the Chinese Student Protection Act). The allocation is zero in a year with only 140k visas. The number is slightly higher than reported in this document (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf) because the final EB allocation was 150,241.

In that sense all EB-5 visas made available to China are FA. EB5-China use is limited to the number of visas that other Countries do not require.

Hence, if no visas are available to China in EB5, it means other Countries are expected to use the difference between the total allocation for EB-5 and Chinese use. Put another way, it means EB-5 has reached (or is expected to reach) their full allocation for the FY of 10,667 visas.

This would be the first time that EB-5 has ever used the full allocation available to it - I think that is noteworthy.

I did edit my original post to make that point clear, but you had posted while I was doing that.

[Spectator]

I had that thought at the back of my mind. But then I wondered why would they report it as EB5 china reached limit. Why wouldn't they say EB5 has reached its limit.Politics and spin as far as I am concerned. China represents over 90% of EB-5 use anyway. CO wants to avoid saying it is Unavailable as a whole.

EB3-ROW has effectively been U since June - same deal as far as I am concerned.

[qesehmk]

Probably ... Thanks Spec.
Politics and spin as far as I am concerned. China represents over 90% of EB-5 use anyway. CO wants to avoid saying it is Unavailable as a whole.

EB3-ROW has effectively been U since June - same deal as far as I am concerned.

[Jagan01]

Gurus,

I received my I-485 receipts and there is a problem with the preference category on the I-485 receipt. It states preference category EB3 instead of EB2. I had ported from EB3 to EB2 and this is my first time filing I-485.

Anybody ran into this in the past. I know it is a porting case and not many here would have dealt with it. Your inputs are greatly appreciated.

[avkeb2]

I got notices in mail that our cases are now transferred to NBC Lee summit, MO.
One of my friend is tells most likely this process will take 2 months or so. Also I will receive interview letter to appear at local office.

I am guessing it could be for one or all the reasons below if interview is scheduled.

1) I worked with my labor filed company for 6 months after getting EAD in 2012.
2) I had a speeding citation during vacation in 2010. Traffic cop issued citation mentioning the radar caught me at 103mph. I followed up many times but all the times Fresno, CA office told me ticket was not found in system on my name or citation number.

I am worried now what triggered my case to this additional processing. Looks like I will miss the boat this year :(

[vizcard]

I got notices in mail that our cases are now transferred to NBC Lee summit, MO.
One of my friend is tells most likely this process will take 2 months or so. Also I will receive interview letter to appear at local office.

I am guessing it could be for one or all the reasons below if interview is scheduled.

1) I worked with my labor filed company for 6 months after getting EAD in 2012.
2) I had a speeding citation during vacation in 2010. Traffic cop issued citation mentioning the radar caught me at 103mph. I followed up many times but all the times Fresno, CA office told me ticket was not found in system on my name or citation number.

I am worried now what triggered my case to this additional processing. Looks like I will miss the boat this year :(

Not sure why #1 would trigger a transfer. And if the citation in #2 is not in the California system, I'm not sure if a background check would pick that up. I would try to put together a summary of interactions you had with the Fresno office either formal proof (appointments, etc.) or a typed up summary of what happened (just in case).

Think about it this way. They don't have a reason to deny your application - otherwise they would have done it already. This is probably a situation where they want to have a face to face to discuss your case. Also, it very likely that dates will still be current in Oct. So you might just sneak through. Chin up!

[vizcard]

Gurus,

I received my I-485 receipts and there is a problem with the preference category on the I-485 receipt. It states preference category EB3 instead of EB2. I had ported from EB3 to EB2 and this is my first time filing I-485.

Anybody ran into this in the past. I know it is a porting case and not many here would have dealt with it. Your inputs are greatly appreciated.

Call up the Service center 800 number and let them know.

[avkeb2]

Thanks for the encouragement vizcard.

I will keep updating about my case here, in case if somebody has to refer in future.

I had an Infopass today, officer told me he see lot of these notices in recent times, there are lot of policy changes this year and my case may be ajudicated at NBC.
I have asked if he can see any issue with my case for that he said he can not go inside "their" system to see the details. But he said my case is in transit to NBC.

Then I asked when I researched these kind of messages, they are turning to be interview at local offices, he said we can not approve the cases here, if there is any issue with the case it will be transferred to field office and they may do some enquiry. I believe I went to field office only as there is only office at Charlotte, not sure why he told like that.

By the way are there any cases that got transferred to NBC and got aprroved there with out resulting to an interview.

Overall experience in talking to officer is good though not much info is provided to me.

[Spectator]

FWIW, here is what Murthy have to say about the last meeting with CO on COD movements. The original article is here (http://www.murthy.com/2014/08/27/analysis-predictions-and-trends-sep-2014-visa-bulletin-update/).


Analysis, Predictions, and Trends: Sep 2014 Visa Bulletin Update

August 27, 2014

(T)he American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) has begun issuing analysis and predictions on the movement of cutoff dates each month, after the visa bulletin is released. These updates are based on monthly conversations with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of State (DOS). AILA has published the update based on the September 2014 Visa Bulletin after the release of the September 2014 Visa Bulletin.

EB2 India Advancement Less than Expected; Retrogression Coming Soon

In the September 2014 Visa Bulletin, the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India advanced, but not as much as was previously foreseen. The reason for this, as explained by Chief Oppenheim, is that the demand in the employment-based, first preference (EB1) category and the EB2 category for countries other than India, was higher than expected, resulting in the availability of fewer "extra" visa numbers to shift to the oversubscribed EB2 India category. There were also more EB2 India cases filed than anticipated, partly due to a large number of employment-based, third preference (EB3) to EB2 "upgrade" cases. Chief Oppenheim anticipates that the EB2 India category will retrogress soon - perhaps as early as November 2014. No predictions were given as to the expected cutoff date if and when this retrogression occurs.

EB3 Philippines Advanced to EB3 Worldwide

The employment-based, third preference (EB3) category for the Philippines advanced to the same cutoff date as EB3 worldwide, as of the September 2014 Visa Bulletin. The reason for this is, in part, due to the reduced demand for visa numbers in the EB1 and EB2 Philippines categories, which allowed for visa numbers to fall down to EB3 Philippines. Additionally, fewer EB3 Philippines applicants are coming forward with all the needed documents. Chief Oppenheim expects that the EB3 Philippines cutoff date will continue to match the EB3 worldwide cutoff date for the next few months. Later in fiscal year (FY) 2015, the cutoff date movement will depend upon whether there is greater usage in EB1 and EB2, or if the EB3 demand increases.

EB5 China Predictions for FY15, Unavailable for Remainder of FY14

In his conversation with AILA, Chief Oppenheim stated that the employment-based, fifth preference (immigrant investor) category "…continued to be available," for the time being. However, on August 23, 2014, shortly after his discussion with AILA, Chief Oppenheim issued an alert that, based on updated information, EB5 China is now "unavailable" for the remainder of FY14. The alert further notes that:

"[A]ll China EB5 applicants who have been scheduled for interview at an overseas post based on the original establishment of the August and September cutoff dates…will not be impacted...[but that] no additional numbers are available for 'comeback' cases originally scheduled for interview in an earlier month who are just now returning, or for those first requesting an interview…USCIS offices may continue to accept and process… [EB5 China] cases…"

For FY15, Chief Oppenheim expects to have to establish a cutoff date for EB5 China by June 2015. The EB5 category is predicted to remain current for all other countries throughout the next fiscal year.

[Spectator]

USCIS have added a section to the USCIS Policy Manual (http://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/HTML/PolicyManual-TableOfContents.html) dealing with Customer Service (http://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/HTML/PolicyManual-Volume1.html).

Chapter 3. National Customer Service Center (NCSC) (http://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/HTML/PolicyManual-Volume1-PartA-Chapter3.html) is an interesting read. It gives a good explanation of Tier1 and Tier 2 personnel, what they have access to and what they can accomplish.

[ramaka02]

Thanks Spec!


USCIS have added a section to the USCIS Policy Manual (http://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/HTML/PolicyManual-TableOfContents.html) dealing with Customer Service (http://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/HTML/PolicyManual-Volume1.html).

Chapter 3. National Customer Service Center (NCSC) (http://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/HTML/PolicyManual-Volume1-PartA-Chapter3.html) is an interesting read. It gives a good explanation of Tier1 and Tier 2 personnel, what they have access to and what they can accomplish.

[soggadufan]

Need some help from gurus here.

I got card production letter on July 14th, not received card yet. I have opened an SR 2 days ago, Would I get card even if the dates retrogress after next month?

Do you suggest anything else to do other than opening SR? my PD is Aug28 2008

[qesehmk]

soggadufan - you are now a GC holder. Don't do anything. Simply wait ..some time more ... congrats btw.
Need some help from gurus here.

I got card production letter on July 14th, not received card yet. I have opened an SR 2 days ago, Would I get card even if the dates retrogress after next month?

Do you suggest anything else to do other than opening SR? my PD is Aug28 2008

[soggadufan]

Thanks Q. that is a great relief. Hope everyone gets that relief some day. Thanks to Q for helping everyone through this portal

[fedupwithgc]

Thanks Q for the reply. I am in the same boat. I got CPO on 08/21 and Welcome notice 08/25. But my status is stuck in Decision and awaiting for Card Mailed email.

[EB2IndSep09]

Hello Gurus,

Have been a silent viewer of this forum from almost an year and especially this thread I at least visit daily once.
Wanted to add little spice to the labor day weekend as I did not like to see this thread in active.

Hope you all get to know my details from my userid (EB2-India-Sep-2009), and I missed the boat to file 485 when dates became current in 2012 as I was in the process of shifting jobs.
Am I wishing too much that EB2-I should move to Oct 1 2009 in Oct 2014 before it take a 'U' turn especially with all the RFEs people who applied 485 got?
Sincerely wish guys like Kanmani/imdeng get their cards who bring in lot of inputs to this forum. Sincere thanks to all Gurus/Spec/Q for their constant from me and lot many silent readers like me.

[vizcard]

Hello Gurus,

Have been a silent viewer of this forum from almost an year and especially this thread I at least visit daily once.
Wanted to add little spice to the labor day weekend as I did not like to see this thread in active.

Hope you all get to know my details from my userid (EB2-India-Sep-2009), and I missed the boat to file 485 when dates became current in 2012 as I was in the process of shifting jobs.
Am I wishing too much that EB2-I should move to Oct 1 2009 in Oct 2014 before it take a 'U' turn especially with all the RFEs people who applied 485 got?
Sincerely wish guys like Kanmani/imdeng get their cards who bring in lot of inputs to this forum. Sincere thanks to all Gurus/Spec/Q for their constant from me and lot many silent readers like me.

Unfortunately, there is no chance of that. It will most likely stay where it is in Oct. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. I hope obamas exec action will help. There is ofcourse a whole diff thread for that discussion if you want to check it out.

[akshaya8]

Based on uscis Quarterly performance data, EB-485 stats as below for last 3 Q's.
Received Approved Denied Pending
Q1 30,568 31,702 1,824 117,892
Q2 29,639 30,651 1,611 119,178
Q3 29,200 25,449 1,749 122,754
Total 89,407 87,802 5,184
Approved 87,800 till Q3 by USCIS, excluding EB2 India rest of the categories demand for Q4 may be 26K similllar to Q3.
so 88+ 26 = 114K + 5k consumption increase for ROW due to pending inventory increase of ROW cases by approx 12K [pending number show 5k increased (123-118= 5k) + Approx 7 to 8K EB2 china, India & EB3 india cases approved during the last 3 quarters - As India/China EB2 & India EB3 Approved but no new Intake means another 7K ROW cases added to pending in last 3Q's which means 12K more ROW cases filed than approved in last 3 Q's In general ROW demand is increasing Not good for future spill over ] hope this increase in ROW caese are from EB3 ROW in that case spill over impact will be medium
150K total normarry uscis process 90% if EB cases means 135K - 119K = 16 K will be approx spillover for this year? Any comments from experts

[vizcard]

I'm a first-time filer (filed in 1st week of July with a PD of 24th July 2008). First week of august we did fingerprinting and got it stamped. Yesterday, we received one more fp appointment notice. I called up the NSC and the rep couldn't provide any detail on why the 2nd notice was issued.

Can anybody whose been through a similar situation advise on what next steps we can and specifically 'how do I get information on why the 2nd appointment notice was issued'? (If it was done by mistake and probably all it takes is to find that one right person who can fix it so that our application doesn't get into a bottleneck)

Also, is the retrogression expected for Nov 1 or Dec 1st?


Don't want to freak you out IIWTT. But it could be that they got a false positive with some undesirable person in their database. Or another - rather benign possibility - they lost it. I can't think of anything else. I am sure this is simple stuff. Just do what is being asked. Dont think too much.

Turns out this is a USCIS error. According to Murthy

http://www.murthy.com/2014/08/27/newsflash-duplicate-biometrics-notices-issued-in-error/?utm_source=MurthyBulletin&utm_campaign=88a7d8827b-MurthyBulletin+%3A+Vol.+XX%2C+no.+35%3B+29.Aug.201 4&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b68c057087-88a7d8827b-267206797

[gten20]

My friend got his GC approval notice on 26th. His details...

EB2I - 22-25 Jan 2009. Don't remember the exact date - Processed at NSC.

[Spectator]

I know not everybody looks in FACTS & DATA. I've reproduced part of the post there.

At the end of August, this is the situation for EB2-I (based on primary applicants who actually update their profile).

Note that TSC has now overtaken NSC for approval numbers in the July/August period.

PD ------ 2001 -- 2002 -- 2003 -- 2004 -- 2005 -- 2006 -- 2007 -- 2008 -- 2009 --- Total
October ---- 0 ----- 0 ----- 1 ---- 21 ---- 42 ---- 40 --- 155 --- 102 ----- 0 ----- 361
November --- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ---- 11 ---- 18 ---- 21 ---- 95 ---- 94 ----- 0 ----- 239
December --- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 1 ----- 6 ----- 0 ----- 6 ----- 0 ------ 15
January ---- 1 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 2 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 1 ----- 0 ------ 11
February --- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 1 ----- 1 ----- 2 ----- 2 ----- 0 ------- 8
March ------ 0 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 4 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 5
April ------ 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 3
May -------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 5 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 5
June ------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 1
July ------- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 3 ----- 4 ----- 6 ---- 30 --- 144 ----- 1 ----- 189
August ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 4 ----- 8 ---- 11 ---- 27 --- 382 ---- 29 ----- 461
September -- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 0
Total ------ 2 ----- 0 ----- 4 ---- 57 ---- 74 ---- 86 --- 314 --- 731 ---- 30 --- 1,298


July ------- 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 - 10 - 11 - 12 - 13 - 14 - 15 - 16 - 17 - 18 - 19 - 20 - 21 - 22 - 23 - 24 - 23 - 26 - 27 - 28 - 29 - 30 - 31 - Total
Number ----- 9 - 20 -- 4 -- 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 7 -- 9 -- 4 -- 2 - 11 -- 6 -- 0 -- 2 -- 8 -- 9 - 10 - 16 -- 3 -- 1 - 12 - 10 - 16 -- 4 -- 8 -- 1 -- 0 -- 3 -- 7 -- 4 -- 1 --- 189

August ----- 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 - 10 - 11 - 12 - 13 - 14 - 15 - 16 - 17 - 18 - 19 - 20 - 21 - 22 - 23 - 24 - 23 - 26 - 27 - 28 - 29 - 30 - 31 - Total
Number ---- 17 -- 6 -- 0 - 17 - 27 - 30 - 23 - 15 - 15 -- 0 - 17 - 19 -- 8 - 24 - 25 -- 9 -- 0 - 13 - 14 - 13 - 23 - 26 -- 7 -- 1 - 20 - 16 - 14 - 20 - 15 - 27 -- 0 --- 461


Center ---- NSC ----- TSC ----- CSC ----- VSC --- Total
Total ----- 312 ----- 338 ------- 0 ------- 0 ----- 650
Percent -- 48.0% --- 52.0% ---- 0.0% ---- 0.0% -- 100.0%

[EB2IndSep09]

Thank you vizcard. Please don't be sorry. Mr. Presidendent's EO is the only hope then.
Any idea iff EO is released in favor of ill fate lawful immigrants who are stuck in the limbo is it going to be affective as of the date of order? Did some googling but did not get a complete idea how it works.

[imdeng]

I have this page bookmarked Spec - I check this very frequently. Just like last year, TSC was a slow starter but has more than caught up.

I know not everybody looks in FACTS & DATA. I've reproduced part of the post there.

At the end of August, this is the situation for EB2-I (based on primary applicants who actually update their profile).

Note that TSC has now overtaken NSC for approval numbers in the July/August period.