EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[tenyearsgone]

@imdeng... nice theory and sounds plausible too. But imho most folks in late-2009 are likely wasting their money on this year's medicals.


since you only have choices of 1, 8, 15 and 22 for PD days

Why is 29th not an option?

[Spectator]

@imdeng... nice theory and sounds plausible too. But imho most folks in late-2009 are likely wasting their money on this year's medicals.



Why is 29th not an option?From the THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf) document:


Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled to allotment of a visa number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since VO groups demand for numbers under these dates.

[imdeng]

Bacause VBs only use the four day-of-the-month cutoffs - 1st, 8th, 15th and 22nd of the month. For example - 22-JUN-2009 is a valid cut-off date for next VB - but 29-JUN-2009 is not. If it has to be later than 22-JUN-2009 then it will be 01-JUL-2009 - the next allowed cutoff date.

Update> See Spec's reply below for a much better explanation. Saw it after posting mine.

@imdeng... nice theory and sounds plausible too. But imho most folks in late-2009 are likely wasting their money on this year's medicals.



Why is 29th not an option?

[tenyearsgone]

@Spec and @imdeng .. thanks for the explanation.

PS: I just got text/email for RFEs for both primary and dependent. My theory is that as soon as I posted a message about the RFE on this forum, I got tagged and RFEd!!!. Given my Sept-2009 PD, I feel like it is a waste of money and life-units. Oh well...

[vedu]

Out of curiosity, I looked at last year's visa bulletins to see how far the dates were moved from the August 13 bulletin to the September 13 bulletin. The dates were moved forward by 5.5 months. Now whatever their strategy is, assuming that they use consistent strategy from year to year and also assuming that the demand was similar during the respective time periods, I am thinking the dates may move up to July 08th in the next bulletin. If the 2009 demand is less than the 2008 demand, then the dates might even move farther than July 2009.

There was also a similar "word of caution" in August 13 bulletin regarding the eventual retrogression of the dates in future months!

[vizcard]

Out of curiosity, I looked at last year's visa bulletins to see how far the dates were moved from the August 13 bulletin to the September 13 bulletin. The dates were moved forward by 5.5 months. Now whatever their strategy is, assuming that they use consistent strategy from year to year and also assuming that the demand was similar during the respective time periods, I am thinking the dates may move up to July 08th in the next bulletin. If the 2009 demand is less than the 2008 demand, then the dates might even move farther than July 2009.

There was also a similar "word of caution" in August 13 bulletin regarding the eventual retrogression of the dates in future months!

You are assuming supply i.e. spillover is the same.

[imdeng]

FWIW - 2009 demand is indeed less than 2008 demand - significantly so in fact. 2009 is the weakest demand year in recent past I think - and likely to be the weakest for some time since 2010+ has seen higher demand.

Out of curiosity, I looked at last year's visa bulletins to see how far the dates were moved from the August 13 bulletin to the September 13 bulletin. The dates were moved forward by 5.5 months. Now whatever their strategy is, assuming that they use consistent strategy from year to year and also assuming that the demand was similar during the respective time periods, I am thinking the dates may move up to July 08th in the next bulletin. If the 2009 demand is less than the 2008 demand, then the dates might even move farther than July 2009.

There was also a similar "word of caution" in August 13 bulletin regarding the eventual retrogression of the dates in future months!

[aquatican]

I was a bit worried to see the 'word of caution'. It could potentially mean that the 4 month advance till Jan 2009 would not be repeated in the September bulletin. This is going to be a close call. Lets hope we see Jul 2009 in the next bulletin.



Out of curiosity, I looked at last year's visa bulletins to see how far the dates were moved from the August 13 bulletin to the September 13 bulletin. The dates were moved forward by 5.5 months. Now whatever their strategy is, assuming that they use consistent strategy from year to year and also assuming that the demand was similar during the respective time periods, I am thinking the dates may move up to July 08th in the next bulletin. If the 2009 demand is less than the 2008 demand, then the dates might even move farther than July 2009.

There was also a similar "word of caution" in August 13 bulletin regarding the eventual retrogression of the dates in future months!

[ksur23]

http://www.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=2730

"EB-2 India is not projected to advance further, and in fact could be retrogressed within the next several months, when demand is expected to increase."

I really hope this press release is by a paralegal who is interpreting the visa bulletin and is not an insider tip from a state dept meeting.

Gurus, how mathematically probable is it for no further advancement given what has happened so far?

[aquatican]

imdeng, i was curious if there is movement in the October bulletin. We know that Jul, Aug and September bring movement to EB2 due to spillover. However does the October bulletin still have spiilover left to consume?


So we have 22-Jan-2009 as the EB2I date for Aug 2009 VB. This surely is strange. So here is a theory/speculation on how that might come about (its pure conjecture - so large grain of salt required to be ingested).

Starting Point: 01-Sep-2008 (the PD for July), Ending Point 01-Nov-2009 (assuming all Oct-2009 folks are getting RFE). Assume that this range is to be cleaned up by the end of Oct-2014 (2 months left in this FY plus the first month of next FY, like they did last year). So we have to cover 14 months in 3 steps - so 4.67 months per step. If you calculate ~4.67 months from 1-Sep-2008, you will land on to 22-Jan-2008 since you only have choices of 1, 8, 15 and 22 for PD days. Neat - huh?

By this logic, the PD will be 8 or 15-June-2009 for Sept VB (both are acceptable because of rounding 4.67 months into the 4 options, June 2009 fits with the Spring/Summer 2009 narrative) and 1-Nov-2009 for Oct VB. This will ensure that all the RFEs are taken care of.

[qesehmk]

I think there will be movement. The reason is that the bulletin said

it must not be assumed that this cut-off date will continue to advance at the same pace during the coming months.
I read it to say that it will advance but not at same pace.
I would imagine that the movement should be 1-3 months max i.e. Upto Apr 2009 max.


http://www.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=2730

"EB-2 India is not projected to advance further, and in fact could be retrogressed within the next several months, when demand is expected to increase."

I really hope this press release is by a paralegal who is interpreting the visa bulletin and is not an insider tip from a state dept meeting.

Gurus, how mathematically probable is it for no further advancement given what has happened so far?

[imdeng]

Usually no - we get spillover until Sept and dates go back starting Oct. However, last year dates stayed up for a couple months and a bunch of folks were issued visas then. There is some debate as to where those numbers came from. We can see a repeat of that again this year. Finish the spillover in Sept and consume some of the next year's numbers on Oct.

imdeng, i was curious if there is movement in the October bulletin. We know that Jul, Aug and September bring movement to EB2 due to spillover. However does the October bulletin still have spiilover left to consume?

[imdeng]

I am not sure it means anything at all. Its just risk-speak - covering both sides - does not preclude any possibility - just asks to not be too excited. The median interpretation should be in line with yours - there will be movement but perhaps, may be, kind of, not as much as this month.

I think there will be movement. The reason is that the bulletin said

I read it to say that it will advance but not at same pace.
I would imagine that the movement should be 1-3 months max i.e. Upto Apr 2009 max.

[imdeng]

"retrogress in next several months" is as useless a prediction as any. We all know that is going to happen. Fragomen has always been on the pessimistic side of the world, as I guess most lawyers are. I wouldn't worry much about this PR.

http://www.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=2730

"EB-2 India is not projected to advance further, and in fact could be retrogressed within the next several months, when demand is expected to increase."

I really hope this press release is by a paralegal who is interpreting the visa bulletin and is not an insider tip from a state dept meeting.

Gurus, how mathematically probable is it for no further advancement given what has happened so far?

[vedu]

No, I am assuming that the partial amount of spillover they did not release until September last year with the confidence that it would be surely exhausted in the last month without wasting any visas may be SAME this year. The total amount of spillover may vary from year to year.
You are assuming supply i.e. spillover is the same.

[aquatican]

Q , it seems like the cautionary tone of the bulletin is in line with your projection.
We might see March 2009 and that's it for the year.


I think there will be movement. The reason is that the bulletin said

I read it to say that it will advance but not at same pace.
I would imagine that the movement should be 1-3 months max i.e. Upto Apr 2009 max.

[Kanmani]

With the 1st move upto covered 6860 applicants and 2nd move covered 6889*, I am of the opinion that there should be a pattern followed in moving dates and 3rd move CoD is also ready. Is there enough left out to cover another 6900 ?

*upto 31st Jan

[Kanmani]

Sports,

The Fragoman statement is nothing but the interpretation of comments from the visa bulletin . I think there should be a movement, how far is the billion dollar question.

[TeddyKoochu]

The Fragoman update is pretty bad...a real slap in our faces if true.

Looks like the number Gurus are going to have their way again. The predicted range (Nov 2008 - March 2009) is the one where the PD will land. It makes sense to make the large move in August and do a finetuning in September. I am betting this is happening because of massive and massive and even more massive porting.

If we end up at March 2009, the net movement over the past 3 years would be 20 months...not impressive given we have had 20K visas from FB and that the EB1A/B have been very hard to get thanks to Kazarian.

Why are they sending medical RFEs is anyone's guess. However from my end, I still haven't received one and I have read confirmed accounts of such cases on trackitt. Now, I am getting more and more convinced that not everyone will be asked to resubmit. To extend the same logic further, all the RFEs people in 2009 are receiving this year will be kept valid for more than 1 year and be used when their dates are current again.

I also think the date will hold until October. Good luck to all who are current. I am still hoping for some magic in September.

Mar 2009 is extremely conservative by all standards considering that we already have Jan 22 2009 set. the approval rate especially in the 1st 10 days of Aug is the key as to how much more spillover is possible. You are absolutely right about FB without that things would have been terrible. If the dates can hit Mid 2009 or later Iam pretty sure that the next intake will have to happen Oct - Dec 2015.

[qesehmk]

So here is one thing to understand. The movement that happened so far - pretty much means all these folks will be greened this year as long as their cases are without any issues. However, the movement that happens in september is going to be larger than truly required. So not everybody should expect to get greened.

My original prediction was not about date movement. It was about getting greened. I am talking about people upto Mar 2009 to expect to get greened. January is already real now. So I wouldn't be ashamed if the March prediction turns bad.

Now based on the bulletin if the movement is 1-3 months then most of those folks should be greened. But if it is much more than that then the prediction is saying that people beyond March should keep their hopes low. I don't mean to dampen anybody's spirits. So i will only be happy to be proved wrong.


Q , it seems like the cautionary tone of the bulletin is in line with your projection.
We might see March 2009 and that's it for the year.

[qesehmk]

What a nice Surprise Teddy! Good to hear from u.
Mar 2009 is extremely conservative by all standards considering that we already have Jan 22 2009 set. the approval rate especially in the 1st 10 days of Aug is the key as to how much more spillover is possible. You are absolutely right about FB without that things would have been terrible. If the dates can hit Mid 2009 or later Iam pretty sure that the next intake will have to happen Oct - Dec 2015.

[billikoot]

Q,

I think you have high level answered this already - but let us say in a scenario, we get June 2009 current and then we get retrogressed back to a date in 2008 within 2 months of that. What is the processing time for those that had temporarily become current in that 2-3 month time period?

On the USCIS website for processing, they tout that I-485 adjustment of status is 4 months - would it be a luck of draw on which cases with June 2009 PD become green based on factors like ND and RD, etc? And how long after the retrogression will they keep working on cases that had previously become current? For example, would a June 2009 case hear about being green in lets say January 2015?

I ask this shamelessly, because I am on the borderline of all your predictions and this thing is giving me grey hair.

[Spectator]

There are threads for both:

FY2014 RFE (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2422-The-FY2014-RFE-Thread)

and

I-693 Medical Examination Policy Change (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2427-Medical-Exam-%28I-693%29-Validity-Policy-Change-Discussion)

discussions.

Please post in the appropriate thread if your post is not Calculation related.

[qesehmk]

Q,

I think you have high level answered this already - but let us say in a scenario, we get June 2009 current and then we get retrogressed back to a date in 2008 within 2 months of that. What is the processing time for those that had temporarily become current in that 2-3 month time period?

On the USCIS website for processing, they tout that I-485 adjustment of status is 4 months - would it be a luck of draw on which cases with June 2009 PD become green based on factors like ND and RD, etc? And how long after the retrogression will they keep working on cases that had previously become current? For example, would a June 2009 case hear about being green in lets say January 2015?

I ask this shamelessly, because I am on the borderline of all your predictions and this thing is giving me grey hair.

billi - first please understand my prediction can be wrong. What I am saying is i think even if date moves to Jun or Jul people beyond Mar have much less chance of getting a GC immediately. Lets say I am 100% correct in my prediction and there is somebody in April who is current but not lucky enough to get a GC this year - what happens to him?

I think what's going to happen is come oct and nov these people will get their GCs. Why? Because for CO to even figure out when to retrogress dates he needs data. When does data start to flow to him ? Only in mid or late october. Too bad ... by that time he has already not moved the dates. So I will say there is a good chance he might give away upto 3K visas for EB2I in Oct and Nov itself because the dates will still be current. And then he retrogresses in December.

So again assuming I am 100% on Mark on March ... then do the math and see how far those 3K will take dates for EB2I. Probably 2 months.

Hope this helps! I know you are looking for June. So I hope I am wrong and/or you get lucky!

[Kanmani]

Q,

I have a doubt.

Do you think the approvals would be batch after batch, just like DoS moved dates, so that the 3rd batch might stumble near March 2009, if in case the CoD for September is assumed to be in July'09 ?

[vizcard]

Q,

I have a doubt.

Do you think the approvals would be batch after batch, just like DoS moved dates, so that the 3rd batch might stumble near March 2009, if in case the CoD for September is assumed to be in July'09 ?

In theory its a free for all i.e. no FIFO in terms of approvals but reality is there is place for only so many files on one person's desk. So he/she likely would have to approve (or deny) someone who got current earlier than later.

[qesehmk]

Q,

I have a doubt.

Do you think the approvals would be batch after batch, just like DoS moved dates, so that the 3rd batch might stumble near March 2009, if in case the CoD for September is assumed to be in July'09 ?

The way this is going to work is USCIS is going to start requesting visa numbers for cases that are current and adjudicated. So DOS really has no control in terms of prioritization. They don't prioritize. DoS only allocates visa. That's is why CO and his office is so careful in moving dates. They don't want people with earlier PDs left out.

However if date is current and USCIS requests visa then DOs can't refuse unless DOS runs out of visas.

So in September assuming dates move wild .... lets see Oct 2009. Then whatever visas will be left - DOS will simply allocate in the same sequence of request by USCIS. USCIS will most likely request visas not in the order of PDs but in the order of receipt date as long as the case is adjudicated and current. That is why we see some people with newer PDs getting GCs faster than others.

That's my understanding Kanmani.

[Kanmani]

That is my understanding too Q .

So can we call the net approvals in this FY would be up to March'09, because the left outs will be all over say, from feb' 09 to june - oct'09. Why I think so, because, the slow pace approvals from USCIS might push all the three batches into one pool starting from September, so that the outcome will totally depend upon the efficient adjudicators out of the hundreds spread across, who are not sleeping with RFE response inside their table drawers.

Guys be ready to raise SR.

[qesehmk]

That is my understanding too Q .

So can we call the net approvals in this FY would be up to March'09, because the left outs will be all over say, from feb' 09 to june - oct'09. Why I think so, because, the slow pace approvals from USCIS might push all the three batches into one pool starting from September, so that the outcome will totally depend upon the efficient adjudicators out of the hundreds spread across, who are not sleeping with RFE response inside their table drawers.

Guys be ready to raise SR.
Yes March 09 is where I would put the date at. Anything beyond that would be lucky to get through this year. I would say the rule is 80-20 or 90-10. 80-90% before that date should see approvals and 10-20% shouldn't. The reverse is true for people after that date.

[imdeng]

Hey Teddy - Nice so see you again - stay around - you are sorely missed.

Mar 2009 is extremely conservative by all standards considering that we already have Jan 22 2009 set. the approval rate especially in the 1st 10 days of Aug is the key as to how much more spillover is possible. You are absolutely right about FB without that things would have been terrible. If the dates can hit Mid 2009 or later Iam pretty sure that the next intake will have to happen Oct - Dec 2015.

[imdeng]

Thats some astute observation Kanmani. Lets add ~6850 from Jan 22nd - how far does that take us? Based on Inventory, I am landing around 15-July-2009. Ouch - that hurts!

With the 1st move upto covered 6860 applicants and 2nd move covered 6889*, I am of the opinion that there should be a pattern followed in moving dates and 3rd move CoD is also ready. Is there enough left out to cover another 6900 ?

*upto 31st Jan

[MeraGC1]

Thank you for your quick reply. Is it better to send the AC-21 doc now or wait till the end of the month and send the docs when I start working at the new company? My attorney is saying to send the letter as soon as possible.

Have you seen any instances where USCIS has rejected AC-21 application?

Thanks and appreciate your help.




Technically you can change jobs right away. As you said, you can use AC21 and move. There's no problem to switch jobs immediately after getting your green card assuming you haven't signed any sort of contract.

[vizcard]

Thank you for your quick reply. Is it better to send the AC-21 doc now or wait till the end of the month and send the docs when I start working at the new company? My attorney is saying to send the letter as soon as possible.

Have you seen any instances where USCIS has rejected AC-21 application?

Thanks and appreciate your help.

There is no AC21 application and you really don't even have to notify. In fact, if you want to notify the USCIS, I'd still hold off till dates retrogress. Otherwise it'll just be another document that will delay the application.

[imdeng]

Its been a little quiet here - so just thinking aloud based on my browsing on Spec's impeccably maintained PERM and Trackitt data. Unless something changes drastically, EB2I is going to get hammered in future. 2008 and 2009 PDs were comparatively light years, we have had the benefit of slowdown in ROW demand - and still we are barely keeping pace. Compared to 2008/2009, EB2I demand in 2010, 2011, 2012 is 2X. For example - Number of EB2I PERMs in 2009: 16.7K, in 2012: 36.2K. It will take two good years to pass 2012. Folks in 2013 PD onwards will perhaps have to wait 8-10 years. Wow! Such a depressing thought.

[vizcard]

Its been a little quiet here - so just thinking aloud based on my browsing on Spec's impeccably maintained PERM and Trackitt data. Unless something changes drastically, EB2I is going to get hammered in future. 2008 and 2009 PDs were comparatively light years, we have had the benefit of slowdown in ROW demand - and still we are barely keeping pace. Compared to 2008/2009, EB2I demand in 2010, 2011, 2012 is 2X. For example - Number of EB2I PERMs in 2009: 16.7K, in 2012: 36.2K. It will take two good years to pass 2012. Folks in 2013 PD onwards will perhaps have to wait 8-10 years. Wow! Such a depressing thought.

Here's to immigration reform in 2017!

[smuggymba]

Its been a little quiet here - so just thinking aloud based on my browsing on Spec's impeccably maintained PERM and Trackitt data. Unless something changes drastically, EB2I is going to get hammered in future. 2008 and 2009 PDs were comparatively light years, we have had the benefit of slowdown in ROW demand - and still we are barely keeping pace. Compared to 2008/2009, EB2I demand in 2010, 2011, 2012 is 2X. For example - Number of EB2I PERMs in 2009: 16.7K, in 2012: 36.2K. It will take two good years to pass 2012. Folks in 2013 PD onwards will perhaps have to wait 8-10 years. Wow! Such a depressing thought.

My PD is March 2010, any luck next Sept 2015 or will it be 2016?

[imdeng]

All I can say is that it is possible in FY2015 - but far from certain. The probability will increase the further we go into 2009 in next couple months. Luckily for you, the demand for EB2I is comparatively weak in the months preceding your PD.

My PD is March 2010, any luck next Sept 2015 or will it be 2016?

[vizcard]

My PD is March 2010, any luck next Sept 2015 or will it be 2016?


All I can say is that it is possible in FY2015 - but far from certain. The probability will increase the further we go into 2009 in next couple months. Luckily for you, the demand for EB2I is comparatively weak in the months preceding your PD.


The current numbers suggest that demand up to March 2009 will be cleared (even though later dates might be current). There might be some before and some after that get approved but more or less March 2009. Beyond that there are about 15K cases in inventory (not including porting and potential first time filers in this spillover season). Depending on spillover next year, there might be a better than average chance that March 2010 will be current although cannot guarantee that cases will be approved till then. Also, it is unlikely that first time filers will get approved but atleast they will be able to file and get EAD.

The biggest headwind is the slow PERM processing this year will push the EB2ROW demand in to next year. Plus with EB1-C grabbing tons of visas, and EB5 pretty much using their quota spillover might be lower than this year. The variable is FB overflow. We won't get a clear picture of that until Oct-Dec or so of this year.

[Spectator]

My PD is March 2010, any luck next Sept 2015 or will it be 2016?I think the chances will probably be most influenced by the number of unused FB visas EB receives in FY2015.

If that is low, then in conjunction with an expected increase in ROW approvals in FY2015, then the number of visas available to EB2-I might make that quite difficult.

Like Q, I don't think how far the dates move will influence the equation much - a further movement in FY2014 will just push more numbers into FY2015. Where the COD lands doesn't change the underlying numbers.

Assuming available FB numbers are low for FY2015, I don't expect EB2-I to move into 2010 in FY2015, but that's a long way away and much can change (and it always seems to).

Even a modest number of FB numbers can make quite a difference, so we really need to wait to see what those numbers are before speculating too much.

[vedu]

Spec,

When will we know the FB numbers?

Also, I believe where the COD lands will have an impact on the underlying numbers. The farther it lands means the more the spillover visas they have to distribute before the year ends.




Even a modest number of FB numbers can make quite a difference, so we really need to wait to see what those numbers are before speculating too much.

[Spectator]

Spec,

When will we know the FB numbers?

Also, I believe where the COD lands will have an impact on the underlying numbers. The farther it lands means the more the spillover visas they have to distribute before the year ends.vedu,

The report that gave the FB numbers was created on January 15, 2014, but was only published on March 31, 2014 last time. The Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf document was created at the end of October 2013, but I don't remember when it was actually published. That showed the rough number of FB visas EB had received.

I think we can just disagree about the COD, at least at the macro scale.

There is only a relatively narrow range that the COD could be set at that would cover SO available to EB2-I in FY2014 plus a contingency to ensure visas are not wasted (perhaps a span of 3 months at most).

Beyond that, it becomes a function of the demand that is actually generated by USCIS, rather than the actual number of cases there are. That could be affected by either slow response to RFE by applicants, delay in sending RFE requests, or slow processing of RFE responses by the Service Centers. That might necessitate moving the COD further than otherwise, but it would not reflect that all cases within the COD could be approved. The further the COD moves for that reason, the more cases will fall into FY2015, when they will eventually reflect as demand. In Q's language, it would be a non-sustainable movement.

For instance, a movement to cover all October 2009 EB2-I cases cannot be sustained because it is physically impossible for there to be that much SOFAD available to EB2-I in FY2014 (unless you believe it is possible for EB2-I to receive at least 30k visas this year and for EB1, EB2-WW, EB4 and EB5 to contribute at least 27k spare visas between them.)

[vedu]

Spec,

Thanks for explaining your thoughts on this. Anyways, there is only one month left in this year and we shouldn't expect any miracles now. I just hope there is at least one year net movement this year from the last year. That's too looking difficult.


vedu,


For instance, a movement to cover all October 2009 EB2-I cases cannot be sustained because it is physically impossible for there to be that much SOFAD available to EB2-I in FY2014 (unless you believe it is possible for EB2-I to receive at least 30k visas this year and for EB1, EB2-WW, EB4 and EB5 to contribute at least 27k spare visas between them.)

[vik123]

Sharing the predication by MATT from Trackitt

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ar6Dprt7VeZzdElRQ1RiSzJUN0FjMU9lMURiSFJ1M Hc&usp=sharing#gid=11

MATT's Calculation of EB2-I Movement FY 2014 *

Conservative Realistic Optimistic Going Crazy!!
Priority Date * 22nd Jan, 2009 22nd Mar,2009 1st Jul ,2009 1st Nov, 2009
Demand DD/Inventory 13900 16700 20500 24750
Porting FY2014( From Dec 2013) 3000 3000 2750 2500
FY2014 Left Over(Carry forward to FY2015) -3500 -3750 -4000 -5500
Visas Required( in last quarter to reach the priority date) 13400 15950 19250 21750

EB1 Usage 41500 40500 39500 39500
EB2 WW (ROW+M+P) usage 25000 24000 23500 23000
EB3 usage 42900 42900 42900 42900
EB4 usage 7000 6750 6500 6500
EB5 usage 10100 10000 9750 9500
EB2 China usage 3500 3400 3300 3100
Total Other Category Demand 130000 127550 125450 124500
FY2014 Total EB Visas(All categories) 150000 150000 150000 150000
EB2****isas (FY2014) Quota +SO 20000 22450 25550 27500
EB2 Consumption(FY2014 October -June) -7000 -6750 -6500 -6000
Expected SO (FY2014 Last Quarter) 13000 15700 18050 19500
Over Allocation 1000 2000
* Use only at your own discretion, all dates and numbers calculated with limited data set. The priority dates movement may or may not happen.

[imdeng]

For folks looking for a little bit of optimism (the group includes me, so caution for wishful thinking here) - EB2ROW approvals have slowed to a trickle as USCIS deals with the workload of EB2I RFEs, RFE Responses and approvals. If these trends persist then we can get a higher than usual horizontal spillover this year. Of course, this will revert next year - but that is next year.

The average multiple for trackitt approvals to actual approvals for EB2ROW past three years has been ~50. So far Spec has counted 301 EB2ROW approvals. Assuming that in the couple months left, this number is between 350 to 400, actual EB2ROW approvals will range from 17,500 to 20,000. Adding 4,000 for C/M/P to this, we get EB2-ROW/C/M/P at 21,500 to 24,000. As EB2 allocation this year is 42,900, we get horizontal spillover to EB2I at 18,900 to 21,400. That's a pretty significant number.

Even assuming no vertical spillover (EB1 seems to be going gangbusters), adding the usual 3,000 allocation, we get total SOFAD for EB2I at 21,900 to 24,400. If we are lucky and see, say, ~2,500 vertical spillover from EB2I, then the upper bound for EB2I approaches 27K. Add a bit for contingency that not everyone who becomes current will be approved and I guess that will take dates to 01-NOV-2009 in next VB.

Exercise in wishful thinking is now over. :-)

[Spectator]

For folks looking for a little bit of optimism (the group includes me, so caution for wishful thinking here) - EB2ROW approvals have slowed to a trickle as USCIS deals with the workload of EB2I RFEs, RFE Responses and approvals. If these trends persist then we can get a higher than usual horizontal spillover this year. Of course, this will revert next year - but that is next year.

The average multiple for trackitt approvals to actual approvals for EB2ROW past three years has been ~50. So far Spec has counted 301 EB2ROW approvals. Assuming that in the couple months left, this number is between 350 to 400, actual EB2ROW approvals will range from 17,500 to 20,000. Adding 4,000 for C/M/P to this, we get EB2-ROW/C/M/P at 21,500 to 24,000. As EB2 allocation this year is 42,900, we get horizontal spillover to EB2I at 18,900 to 21,400. That's a pretty significant number.

Even assuming no vertical spillover (EB1 seems to be going gangbusters), adding the usual 3,000 allocation, we get total SOFAD for EB2I at 21,900 to 24,400. If we are lucky and see, say, ~2,500 vertical spillover from EB2I, then the upper bound for EB2I approaches 27K. Add a bit for contingency that not everyone who becomes current will be approved and I guess that will take dates to 01-NOV-2009 in next VB.

Exercise in wishful thinking is now over. :-)imdeng,

Not so much wishful thinking, although I think you may have double counted and underestimated here and there.

Here's my comments.

I agree about EB2-ROW. I have been using a figure within your range for some time.

It seems likely that EB2-C will use more than 3k alone, so a figure of 4k which also includes M&P is very low IMO. I think a figure of 6k for C/M/P is a more realistic low end figure.

In calculating horizontal SO, you have not deducted the 3k that EB2-I will use, then you add it to the calculation later as well.

I think you are possibly being a little pessimistic about Vertical SO. EB4 alone should provide more than that.

Anyway, you definitely need to lower your figure by 3k since that is currently being double counted.

That would give a figure of 24k, which I do not think is unreasonable.

[imdeng]

That makes sense Spec. Thanks for your comments. I was just thinking aloud - I guess we will know the end game for the FY pretty soon.


imdeng,

Not so much wishful thinking, although I think you may have double counted and underestimated here and there.

Here's my comments.

I agree about EB2-ROW. I have been using a figure within your range for some time.

It seems likely that EB2-C will use more than 3k alone, so a figure of 4k which also includes M&P is very low IMO. I think a figure of 6k for C/M/P is a more realistic low end figure.

In calculating horizontal SO, you have not deducted the 3k that EB2-I will use, then you add it to the calculation later.

I think you are possibly being a little pessimistic about Vertical SO. EB4 alone should provide more than that.

Anyway, you definitely need to lower your figure by 3k since that is currently being double counted.

[Spectator]

That makes sense Spec. Thanks for your comments. I was just thinking aloud - I guess we will know the end game for the FY pretty soon.imdeng,

Keep thinking aloud. I do value other people's thoughts and enjoy reading them.

Although I would reach the figure differently, I don't believe 24k is an unreasonable expectation. As you say, EB1 is the difficult one to gauge true numbers for.

[skpanda]

Spec and Others,

If we get 24K in FY 2014. The demand data at beginning of FY2014 showed about 30K EB2I.

So if at the end of FY2014, we have 6 or 8K pending EB2I, will CO think of building up applications.

I know this may not happen and going by past intake of applications experience, CO may advance dates only in Next FY (2015) if he sees spillover more than what he has in demand data.

But just wondering if there is any chance at all?

(MY PD is Dec 2010).

Thanks!



imdeng,

Keep thinking aloud. I do value other people's thoughts and enjoy reading them.

Although I would reach the figure differently, I don't believe 24k is an unreasonable expectation. As you say, EB1 is the difficult one to gauge true numbers for.

[helooo]

Hello Gurus,
If we get early walk in finger print,will that make any difference to the process?Do you think we should go for early FP? Anybody knows what days are slow so we can walk in?

Thanks

[Spectator]

Spec and Others,

If we get 24K in FY 2014. The demand data at beginning of FY2014 showed about 30K EB2I.

So if at the end of FY2014, we have 6 or 8K pending EB2I, will CO think of building up applications.

I know this may not happen and going by past intake of applications experience, CO may advance dates only in Next FY (2015) if he sees spillover more than what he has in demand data.

But just wondering if there is any chance at all?

(MY PD is Dec 2010).

Thanks!skpanda,

I am not that hopeful.

The USCIS Inventory showed a figure of 31.2k as at April 1, 2014, by which time a large number of visas had already been allocated from the prospective FY2014 number. The number still left to be allocated for the rest of FY2014 would therefore be quite a bit less than 24k.

In addition, there would be new applications that will be submitted as the dates progress and further porting cases that become ready to adjudicate under EB2-I. Those may only be adjudicated in FY2015.

I would see a figure far higher than the 6-8k you mention still pending going into FY2015 plus a further number of cases to be added to that figure during FY2015. I also see relatively less spillover being available to EB2-I in FY2015, hence I believe the next Inventory buildup will not occur until FY2016, barring some significant unknown change. There is an outside possibility of the forward movement starting in Q4, FY2015, depending on the number of cases left at that time. It depends on how much SO is available to EB2-I in FY2015.

Movement in FY2014 is impossible IMO.

[gkjppp]

Need suggestion:

My PD is Mar 15,2010. I am sure i may get current in 2015. I had changed my job on sep,2013. And yet to change my lawyer.My earlier lawyer bound to employer he wont continue my GC process any more.

Can you please suggest reasonably good lawyer to continue GC process. I had no RFE's so for. Its straight forward case. I got my spouse as a dependant.I was thinking of going with an attorney who is not bound to my employer , so that i can continue with him in case if i change my job.
Please move this to appropriate thread.

[kikoz9]

Hi folks,
I've been a silent reader for this great forum that is really helping to understand the GC process.

My Perm recently got approved and my PD is 05Dec13 EB3 ROW, I've read that the EB3 ROW has some good future next year, I'd like your to get your expert opinion on when the PD will be current?

Thank you so much in advance.

[Spectator]

Hi folks,
I've been a silent reader for this great forum that is really helping to understand the GC process.

My Perm recently got approved and my PD is 05Dec13 EB3 ROW, I've read that the EB3 ROW has some good future next year, I'd like your to get your expert opinion on when the PD will be current?

Thank you so much in advance.See this thread (www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/5-EB3-Predictions-amp-Calculations/page100).

I'll move your post there later and delete this one.

[gkjppp]

Thanks Sportsfan33, Hope you get your GC asap.As you said i will file G28 and will think about attorney little later.


I went through this and I do not have a lawyer. I am in the current batch hoping to get a GC approval. I will let you know how the process goes.

In all honesty, I am not sure how the lawyer can help at this stage. The most you will receive RFE for is EVL and medicals which is very easy to respond to. I have read the lawyers charge anywhere from $1500 to $3000 to respond. I would just save that money and go to a cruise with my family.

I would suggest that you fill up the G28 form and make yourself your own lawyer (on all pending cases including your dependents) in the interim. You can get a lawyer later and do this again if needs be. The G28 form can be filled online I believe. This way, any correspondence intended for your previous lawyer will now come to you.

[bluelabel]

When the next inventory buildup happens possibly in CY 2015, will DOS move only up to a date where visa can be assigned in 1 year and not let the medicals expire?

[Kanmani]

When the next inventory buildup happens possibly in CY 2015, will DOS move only up to a date where visa can be assigned in 1 year and not let the medicals expire?

I-693 Medical examination report has been excluded from the initial evidence documents checklist of I-485. It can be submitted whenever it is required, at the convenience of cut of date movement of respective countries.

Applicants from retrogressed countries may skip filing and wait for medical report RFE, when the adjudicator sends one in anticipation of visa number.

[feedmyback]

The way I see it, the movement is definitely not going to be like the one in 2012. It is going to be more calculated since moving the dates even by 6 months generates a good inventory. Unless something else (election year, politics etc) drives it, they have no technical reason to just move dates very aggressively. That is my thought process anyways. May be someone more knowledgeable can chip in.


When the next inventory buildup happens possibly in CY 2015, will DOS move only up to a date where visa can be assigned in 1 year and not let the medicals expire?

[kumar777]

HI

i have been a silent reader of this forum and learned a lot about GC processing. my pd is 12/15/09 ( eb2 india ) , is there is a chance of becoming current early next year? How many visa numbers required for eb2 india to progress from march 09 ( as per Guru's prediction for current year i.e fyi 2014) till End of 2009?

Thanks

[vizcard]

HI

i have been a silent reader of this forum and learned a lot about GC processing. my pd is 12/15/09 ( eb2 india ) , is there is a chance of becoming current early next year? How many visa numbers required for eb2 india to progress from march 09 ( as per Guru's prediction for current year i.e fyi 2014) till End of 2009?

Thanks

It should be current next summer. By my estimates probably need another 12k visas till dec 2009 .. so approx 9k spillover (assuming everything is cleared up to mar 2009).

[feedmyback]

From all the discussions the Gurus have done and calculations, all I understood is that you will definitely become current before October 2015. I am not sure what you had in mind when you said "early next year"...


HI

i have been a silent reader of this forum and learned a lot about GC processing. my pd is 12/15/09 ( eb2 india ) , is there is a chance of becoming current early next year? How many visa numbers required for eb2 india to progress from march 09 ( as per Guru's prediction for current year i.e fyi 2014) till End of 2009?

Thanks

[kumar777]

just read spec's prediction for FY 2015 , and want to hear about other guru's prediction as well..

In a slightly better scenario, fairly limited spillover to EB2-I would be available, but it would only allow a few months further progress to the Cut Off Dates from where they end FY2014.

[gcpursuit]

It should be current next summer. By my estimates probably need another 12k visas till dec 2009 .. so approx 9k spillover (assuming everything is cleared up to mar 2009).

Viz,

9k spillover is possible next year? I mean with heavy EB2-ROW with PERM having picked up speed and heavy EB1 usage as well.

What are the chances that the dates will move to july or beyond this year? I understand getting greened part is not possible. All I am looking for is to file my I-485 as I missed it in 2012 when I changed jobs.

[kumar777]

gcPursuit,

it seems like ( as per spec's prediction) it is hard to get 9k spillover next year due to retrogression in FB numbers.

[rka_72]

This link has the updated list of approvals:::
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vuJfcbJiRj_vsMqA8i_5yXV03_N98CIr0Gg7cdIVbCc/edit?pli=1#gid=1242834732

[Spectator]

I'd just like to remind people that when I talk about FY2015, it should be considered "talking out loud" at this stage. FY2014 is still difficult enough!!!!

The front page in particular was written some time ago and specifically discusses a "nuclear" option that may not come to pass.

[vizcard]

Viz,

9k spillover is possible next year? I mean with heavy EB2-ROW with PERM having picked up speed and heavy EB1 usage as well.

What are the chances that the dates will move to july or beyond this year? I understand getting greened part is not possible. All I am looking for is to file my I-485 as I missed it in 2012 when I changed jobs.

Who knows about the 9K in 2015. Too many unknowns to make a realistic prediction. This year I have always been in the camp that says it will stop around March/April. I hope I am wrong and dates move to the "early summer" timeframe.

[sdesh005]

Who knows about the 9K in 2015. Too many unknowns to make a realistic prediction. This year I have always been in the camp that says it will stop around March/April. I hope I am wrong and dates move to the "early summer" timeframe.
I'm at the end of July '09 and I am not at all hopeful in this FY, so I don't know..."early summer" seems elusive to me at least. May be I'm looking at June/July 2015 VBs to be current?

[civilengineer]

Does anyone analyze receipt numbers for trends? I filed 485/EAD/AP for me and my wife and we got sequential receipt numbers for all except my wife's EAD. Her EAD recepit number was processed a day or two later and was off by 16000 from the rest of the numbers. This was at Nebraska Service Center.

[vizcard]

I'm at the end of July '09 and I am not at all hopeful in this FY, so I don't know..."early summer" seems elusive to me at least. May be I'm looking at June/July 2015 VBs to be current?

Most likely ..yes.

[fedupwithgc]

Any idea/thoughts why the approvals are so slow this Month ? What's the point in moving the dates and not approving the cases, especially TSC. I am worried that they will start approving randomly next month and people with 2008 PD will be left out and 2009 will get GC....

[vizcard]

Any idea/thoughts why the approvals are so slow this Month ? What's the point in moving the dates and not approving the cases, especially TSC. I am worried that they will start approving randomly next month and people with 2008 PD will be left out and 2009 will get GC....

someone posted that TSC is busy issuing RFEs first and then will get to approving cases. It really is worrisome.

[fedupwithgc]

someone posted that TSC is busy issuing RFEs first and then will get to approving cases. It really is worrisome.
Yeah, What if by the time they finish giving RFE's the FY ends and next year starts. They can risk wasting all the numbers which will be devastating.... I am thinking to do a Congressmen Inquiry next Month if things don't change. What do you think ?

[saagar_is_cool]

Gurus,

Matt,

I am a silent spectator of forums here and finally ventured into posting today. My PD is 17 April 2009. I have never filed 485 so far.
1. Do you think I will get a chance for getting EAD in September bulletin.
2. Assuming the dates move far enough like October/November 2009, what are my chances of getting GC this year.

I had an amazing opportunity to change jobs last December (financially and title wise) and did not because it would mean new PERM from scratch which would not give me a chance for EAD this year. I hope I didn't make a mistake then. I see multiple postings here and other forums about GCs being given until March 2009 etc. but what about chance for EAD for mid-April PD guys.

[jimmys]

Any idea/thoughts why the approvals are so slow this Month ? What's the point in moving the dates and not approving the cases, especially TSC. I am worried that they will start approving randomly next month and people with 2008 PD will be left out and 2009 will get GC....

That's exactly they have been doing all along. What's new that you expect? It's gonna be a mix of 2008 and 2009 people to get approved. And there will be many that will be left out in 2008 and 2009.

[fedupwithgc]

I think if I don't get it by end of August, I am going to make up my mind to wait for next year...

[Spectator]

Any idea/thoughts why the approvals are so slow this Month ? What's the point in moving the dates and not approving the cases, especially TSC. I am worried that they will start approving randomly next month and people with 2008 PD will be left out and 2009 will get GC....I'm starting to wonder whether it just shows how slow the process is once the RFE Response has been received by the SC to when it ever makes it back to an IO's desk and comes up for adjudication.

Maybe the new I-693 policy (and hence RFEs for most people) is the reason why the COD moved in July this FY.

I have no insight at all. It's frustrating for everybody.

[shekhar_kuruk]

Here is my take on it. Looking at the SOFAD, EB2-I could end up with 24k this year because of the slow rate of PERM processing for ROW. If that happens I think the dates will move in next bulletin to 1st July or latter and hold till October 31st and may retrogress
in Nov. CO may also decide to give EB2-I its share of 3000 visas in October so that, it is utilized early before retrogression. I think not all in this forum will agree as I am being a little optimistic, but even Spec & Sportsfan will agree 24k is not unreasonable.
I wish you good luck and hope your decision last year pays off this year.


Gurus,

Matt,

I am a silent spectator of forums here and finally ventured into posting today. My PD is 17 April 2009. I have never filed 485 so far.
1. Do you think I will get a chance for getting EAD in September bulletin.
2. Assuming the dates move far enough like October/November 2009, what are my chances of getting GC this year.

I had an amazing opportunity to change jobs last December (financially and title wise) and did not because it would mean new PERM from scratch which would not give me a chance for EAD this year. I hope I didn't make a mistake then. I see multiple postings here and other forums about GCs being given until March 2009 etc. but what about chance for EAD for mid-April PD guys.

[imdeng]

Well... if they decided to use up part if FY2016 allocation in Oct/Nov like last year - then who knows! Several thousand EB2Is were approved in Oct/Nov last year. We will need just about 1000-1200 for each month's movement in mid-to-late-2009. So even 5000 visas as like 4 month's movement - enough to go until 01NOV09 - so as to cover all the RFEs.

I'm at the end of July '09 and I am not at all hopeful in this FY, so I don't know..."early summer" seems elusive to me at least. May be I'm looking at June/July 2015 VBs to be current?

[imdeng]

What trends do you think can be extracted? Receipt numbers include all kinds of cases - cases on both sides of mine are mostly GC Renewals. Don't think much can be extracted from receipt numbers.

Does anyone analyze receipt numbers for trends? I filed 485/EAD/AP for me and my wife and we got sequential receipt numbers for all except my wife's EAD. Her EAD recepit number was processed a day or two later and was off by 16000 from the rest of the numbers. This was at Nebraska Service Center.

[imdeng]

Its just middle of July. They have two and half months to finish the job. I am sure ALL no-problem 2008 cases will be done this FY. Folks who get current in next VB might get into a bit of a lottery depending upon how large the movement is for Sept. If the movement is just couple of months - then I think most will sail through. If the movement is like 6-8-10 months - then part of that group might get left behind.

Any idea/thoughts why the approvals are so slow this Month ? What's the point in moving the dates and not approving the cases, especially TSC. I am worried that they will start approving randomly next month and people with 2008 PD will be left out and 2009 will get GC....

[yarlii]

07/15/2014: India EB-2 Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Could Move Back as Early as in November 2014?
In the August 2014 Visa Bulletin, the State Department released their prediction for visa number movement for India EB-2 with a warning that it could move backward significantly in the next several months. According to the AILA, it could come as early as in November 2014. Usually, visa numbers do not retrogress in the first month (October) of a fiscal year, but tends to move backward later part of the first Quarter or first part of second Quarter. It is hoped that the number keeps moving forward for India EB-2 in September and Octobeer so that EB-2 Indian professionals get further relief before it faces another nightmare for a significant period of time. Result of November national election can bring some changes in the political environment, but the Washington gridlock is likely to continue through at least 2016 Presidential election and broken immigration system may have to endure the pains for a long time.

[yarlii]

07/15/2014: India EB-2 Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Could Move Back as Early as in November 2014?
In the August 2014 Visa Bulletin, the State Department released their prediction for visa number movement for India EB-2 with a warning that it could move backward significantly in the next several months. According to the AILA, it could come as early as in November 2014. Usually, visa numbers do not retrogress in the first month (October) of a fiscal year, but tends to move backward later part of the first Quarter or first part of second Quarter. It is hoped that the number keeps moving forward for India EB-2 in September and Octobeer so that EB-2 Indian professionals get further relief before it faces another nightmare for a significant period of time. Result of November national election can bring some changes in the political environment, but the Washington gridlock is likely to continue through at least 2016 Presidential election and broken immigration system may have to endure the pains for a long time..

[vedu]

If this is true, then I think the dates will be moved to October 2009 in two steps to cover all the recently released RFEs. In the process, they will use this year's spill over, next year's EB2I quota, and any left overs from this year's family quota to clear as many cases as they can. Then come November, there will be no other option than to retrogress the dates significantly for the remainder of the year until next year's spillover will be available in the last quarter. What do you guys think?


07/15/2014: India EB-2 Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Could Move Back as Early as in November 2014?
In the August 2014 Visa Bulletin, the State Department released their prediction for visa number movement for India EB-2 with a warning that it could move backward significantly in the next several months. According to the AILA, it could come as early as in November 2014. Usually, visa numbers do not retrogress in the first month (October) of a fiscal year, but tends to move backward later part of the first Quarter or first part of second Quarter. It is hoped that the number keeps moving forward for India EB-2 in September and Octobeer so that EB-2 Indian professionals get further relief before it faces another nightmare for a significant period of time. Result of November national election can bring some changes in the political environment, but the Washington gridlock is likely to continue through at least 2016 Presidential election and broken immigration system may have to endure the pains for a long time..

[imdeng]

I think it is boilerplate statement. I don't think much can be read in that statement. Although - I do agree with the possibility (likelihood?) that they can go to 01NOV09 in two steps to clear all the RFEs using some part of next year's numbers in Oct.

If this is true, then I think the dates will be moved to October 2009 in two steps to cover all the recently released RFEs. In the process, they will use this year's spill over, next year's EB2I quota, and any left overs from this year's family quota to clear as many cases as they can. Then come November, there will be no other option than to retrogress the dates significantly for the remainder of the year until next year's spillover will be available in the last quarter. What do you guys think?

[Spectator]

If this is true, then I think the dates will be moved to October 2009 in two steps to cover all the recently released RFEs. In the process, they will use this year's spill over, next year's EB2I quota, and any left overs from this year's family quota to clear as many cases as they can. Then come November, there will be no other option than to retrogress the dates significantly for the remainder of the year until next year's spillover will be available in the last quarter. What do you guys think?TBH, the Oh statement is a lot of words saying absolutely nothing and adding nothing new.

The most likely scenario is that the Cut Off Dates set for September 2014 will be held in October 2014 to allow those cases that could not be approved within the FY2014 limits to be approved.

That would likely use the initial allocation for EB2-I in FY2015 if the September 2014 COD has been set correctly and cases are ready to be adjudicated by then after the RFE responses.

The chances for extra FB visas in FY2015 is much less and I don't think we will see the level seen in the last 2 years.

A movement to cover the RFEs issued to the end of October 2009, IMO risks using any SO that might be available to EB2-I in FY2015. I don't think CO will risk that as early as October 2014. Of course, he will have the benefit of pretty much knowing FB usage for FY2014 when he sets the October VB and at least a rough idea of the latitude he may have.

If CO wants to try and help applicants not have to redo medicals, he has the option to move the COD forward in July 2015. There is no need to clear those cases in October 2014. Ultimately, it was USCIS who decided to issue the RFE, when and to who, not DOS.

Currently, I would see the Cut Off Date in October being held at the September date, then retrogression in November until later in the FY, when a clearer picture on likely SO can be determined.

[saagar_is_cool]

Spectator, in that case, what is your best guess estimate for the PD to become current in Sep 2014. Do you think the early summer estimate (May 2009 ?) still holds true?


TBH, the Oh statement is a lot of words saying absolutely nothing and adding nothing new.

The most likely scenario is that the Cut Off Dates set for September 2014 will be held in October 2014 to allow those cases that could not be approved within the FY2014 limits to be approved.

That would likely use the initial allocation for EB2-I in FY2015 if the September 2014 COD has been set correctly and cases are ready to be adjudicated by then after the RFE responses.

The chances for extra FB visas in FY2015 is much less and I don't think we will see the level seen in the last 2 years.

A movement to cover the RFEs issued to the end of October 2009, IMO risks using any SO that might be available to EB2-I in FY2015. I don't think CO will risk that as early as October 2014. Of course, he will have the benefit of pretty much knowing FB usage for FY2014 when he sets the October VB and at least a rough idea of the latitude he may have.

If CO wants to try and help applicants not have to redo medicals, he has the option to move the COD forward in July 2015. There is no need to clear those cases in October 2014. Ultimately, it was USCIS who decided to issue the RFE, when and to who, not DOS.

Currently, I would see the Cut Off Date in October being held at the September date, then retrogression in November until later in the FY, when a clearer picture on likely SO can be determined.

[Spectator]

http://www.murthy.com/2014/07/15/dos-predictions-fb2a-to-move-forward-eb2-india-to-retrogress/


DOS Predictions: FB2A to Move Forward, EB2 India to Retrogress

July 15, 2014

The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) has announced that it will now begin to issue a report each month intended to provide reliable predictions and analysis regarding the movement of cutoff dates in the visa bulletin. These reports will be based on discussions with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State (DOS), following the release of each month's visa bulletin. The predictions made in this month's AILA report, and summarized here for MurthyDotCom readers, is in addition to the insights offered in the August 2014 Visa Bulletin.

Family Second Preference "A" (FB2A) Likely to Advance Soon

Chief Oppenheim predicts that the long-stagnant FB2A cutoff dates will move forward in September 2014. As of the August 2014 Visa Bulletin, the FB2A cutoff date stands at March 15, 2011 for Mexico, and May 1, 2012 for all other countries of chargeability. In the upcoming September 2014 Visa Bulletin, these dates could advance, "possibly as far as late fall 2012."

Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2) India to Retrogress

There is little question that EB2 India will see retrogression (i.e. backward movement of cutoff dates) in fiscal year 2015 (FY15). This retrogression could occur as early as November 2014, a month after the October 1st start of FY15.

The reason for this is a bit complicated. The cutoff dates in the visa bulletin are a product of visa number supply-and-demand, and setting these dates involves making estimations based on a number of variables. These variables include historical patterns, expected future demand, and case processing trends. The DOS notes that adjustment-of-status (I-485) applications submitted in July and August 2014 will not increase visa number demand in EB2 until sometime in early FY15. This is because the demand for visa numbers does not hit the DOS until the cases are processed by the USCIS and visa numbers are requested. This is why there can be a delay between a large influx of applications and retrogression within a category.

Employment-Based, Third Preference (EB3)

The DOS did not offer predictions for EB3. However, the report did review the unusual developments in the EB3 China category in the recent past. In mid-2013 through May 2014, the EB3 China cutoff date was more favorable than EB2 China. This generated requests to "downgrade' from many who would otherwise be in EB2. As a result, the demand for EB3 China visa numbers significantly increased each month in early calendar year 2014, leading the category to retrogress considerably; demand eventually dwindled, allowing the dates to again move forward in the August 2014 Visa Bulletin.

Employment-Based, Fifth Preference (EB5)

The DOS expects to have to establish a cutoff date in the EB5 category in FY15 for China. This may happen by June 2015. The exact timing depends upon a number of factors, including the pace of case processing by the USCIS.

Conclusion

The Murthy Law Firm appreciates the willingness of the DOS, and specifically Chief Oppenheim, to provide insights into the expectations for visa bulletin cutoff date movement. The movement of cutoff dates in the monthly bulletin can be mystifying and frustrating for many. The predictions and explanations offered by the DOS at least should help to provide some transparency to the process.

Copyright © 2014, MURTHY LAW FIRM. All Rights Reserved

It appears to be based on this AILA document:


7/14/2014 Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim- July 2014

DOS Liaison Committee series of monthly “check-ins” with Charlie Oppenheim, designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections, beyond the basic visa availability updates provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin.
AILA Doc. No. 14071401.

which is restricted to AILA members.

[imdeng]

Folks - I would request posters to resist the temptation to ask questions like "when will X be current?" until you have looked through previous posts in this forum. When you do look through, you will find that in most cases, it has already been discussed. Of course, if you think that your situation has not been discussed yet or if the situation is urgent - please go ahead and post.

I do not wish to discourage anybody from posting. I just want folks to be mindful and do some research first.

[migo79]

I just wonder why DOS didn't give any predictions for EB3, is that difficult or DOS doesn't have a clue about what demand is?
they should at least have a good picture until OCT12, some random reports i found talks about EB3P reach APR11 same as ROW
and then a movement in OCT bulletin of 1 year until APR12

but again not sure why DOS offered no predictions

[saagar_is_cool]

Folks - I would request posters to resist the temptation to ask questions like "when will X be current?" until you have looked through previous posts in this forum. When you do look through, you will find that in most cases, it has already been discussed. Of course, if you think that your situation has not been discussed yet or if the situation is urgent - please go ahead and post.

I do not wish to discourage anybody from posting. I just want folks to be mindful and do some research first.

@imdeng, I am not sure if this is related to my question but I would like to humbly state something. I have read every single post in this thread for the past few weeks and in some threads on trackitt. The problem is that a lot of posts use the immigration lingo like SO, COD etc. and lawyer type language which is difficult to understand for newbies like me. In the ensuing confusion and concern about being ready to file on the first day of month when date becomes current, these posts are posted to get some information in layman's terms. I apologize for any repetition caused in this.

[imdeng]

Sagar - I was not talking about anybody specific. No need to apologize - if you looked through the forum and could not find the answer, then of course you should post. I understand that the process is stressful and I am happy to help with your questions and also any terminology that might be confusing.

Q - Perhaps we should create a glossary page?


@imdeng, I am not sure if this is related to my question but I would like to humbly state something. I have read every single post in this thread for the past few weeks and in some threads on trackitt. The problem is that a lot of posts use the immigration lingo like SO, COD etc. and lawyer type language which is difficult to understand for newbies like me. In the ensuing confusion and concern about being ready to file on the first day of month when date becomes current, these posts are posted to get some information in layman's terms. I apologize for any repetition caused in this.

[qesehmk]

Sagar - I was not talking about anybody specific. No need to apologize - if you looked through the forum and could not find the answer, then of course you should post. I understand that the process is stressful and I am happy to help with your questions and also any terminology that might be confusing.

Q - Perhaps we should create a glossary page?
Thanks imdeng. We used to have one. I just copied it into a separate thread. CLICK HERE (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2453-Forum-Glossary)

All Gurus please feel free to change that single post instead of adding a new post to that thread.

If you need moderator rights to change posts then let me know.

[imdeng]

Thanks Q. I am going to put a link to the Glossary in my signature.

Thanks imdeng. We used to have one. I just copied it into a separate thread. CLICK HERE (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2453-Forum-Glossary)

[aquatican]

Thanks Q. I am going to put a link to the Glossary in my signature.
Pardon the humor but i wanted to use all of the terms together.

Waiting for the COD gods to give us a a lot of SO and little FA and a sprinkle of FD for a a tasty punch of SOFAD.
The reason is simple, We want our PD's to get into love zone PD<CD because it sucks to be friended by PWMB which makes me so PWMB.
The CO is so stingy he only wants SFM , i tell him forget it man give us some BTM
He threatened me with UFM and the stick of BTM.
But if we send him some cookies he will move the COD and let us all R485 and get our SYA.

[triplet]

Most of us probably have memorized all of this by rote, thanks to the 6-year wait! Nice one, lightens the mood. :)


Pardon the humor but i wanted to use all of the terms together.

Waiting for the COD gods to give us a a lot of SO and little FA and a sprinkle of FD for a a tasty punch of SOFAD.
The reason is simple, We want our PD's to get into love zone PD<CD because it sucks to be friended by PWMB which makes me so PWMB.
The CO is so stingy he only wants SFM , i tell him forget it man give us some BTM
He threatened me with UFM and the stick of BTM.
But if we send him some cookies he will move the COD and let us all R485 and get our SYA.

[vizcard]

Pardon the humor but i wanted to use all of the terms together.

Waiting for the COD gods to give us a a lot of SO and little FA and a sprinkle of FD for a a tasty punch of SOFAD.
The reason is simple, We want our PD's to get into love zone PD<CD because it sucks to be friended by PWMB which makes me so PWMB.
The CO is so stingy he only wants SFM , i tell him forget it man give us some BTM
He threatened me with UFM and the stick of BTM.
But if we send him some cookies he will move the COD and let us all R485 and get our SYA.


Most of us probably have memorized all of this by rote, thanks to the 6-year wait! Nice one, lightens the mood. :)

Thought I'd add...
------------
Ultimately the aim is for all of us to get the magical email / text and get greened
------------
Although not really glossary-worthy terms, I had to get rid of some nervous energy.

[imdeng]

EB2ROW approvals continue to be slow. Spec's trackitt data shows just 13 approvals - and we are 17 days out in July. If the pace continues to be slow - it will help EB2I date movements. CO will need to make up his mind for Sept VB in next 15-20 days. If EB2ROW consumption is low enough at that point then he might be forced to make a big jump in EB2I.

It doesn't matter too much if not everybody who is current gets a GC this FY. We have last year's precedence that CO is willing to burn a bit of next years allocation in Oct/Nov. So I am hoping for a big jump in Sept bulletin, clearing of only a part of that in Sep and then clearing rest (or good part of the rest) in Oct/Nov.

[vizcard]

EB2ROW approvals continue to be slow. Spec's trackitt data shows just 13 approvals - and we are 17 days out in July. If the pace continues to be slow - it will help EB2I date movements. CO will need to make up his mind for Sept VB in next 15-20 days. If EB2ROW consumption is low enough at that point then he might be forced to make a big jump in EB2I.

It doesn't matter too much if not everybody who is current gets a GC this FY. We have last year's precedence that CO is willing to burn a bit of next years allocation in Oct/Nov. So I am hoping for a big jump in Sept bulletin, clearing of only a part of that in Sep and then clearing rest (or good part of the rest) in Oct/Nov.


Agreed. Plus EB2I isn't going full force either.

i forget what the multiplier is between Trackitt and "reality" (6x?) but with 131 total EB2 approvals in half the month thats less than 800 approvals so far (assuming 6x). Ofcourse the pace is expected to pick up but even if it doubles we are looking at 2500 approvals for the month of July (total !). That's pretty underwhelming if you ask me.

[imdeng]

Last two years, EB2I trackitt ratio has been ~13x. We are at 106 EB2I approvals in July so far - so thats ~1378 approvals. For this FY we have had 753 EB2I approvals - thats 9789 EB2I approvals so far. Yup - we have a long way to go - and it does seem underwhelming at the moment.

Agreed. Plus EB2I isn't going full force either.

i forget what the multiplier is between Trackitt and "reality" (6x?) but with 131 total EB2 approvals in half the month thats less than 800 approvals so far (assuming 6x). Ofcourse the pace is expected to pick up but even if it doubles we are looking at 2500 approvals for the month of July (total !). That's pretty underwhelming if you ask me.

[sdesh005]

It doesn't matter too much if not everybody who is current gets a GC this FY. We have last year's precedence that CO is willing to burn a bit of next years allocation in Oct/Nov. So I am hoping for a big jump in Sept bulletin, clearing of only a part of that in Sep and then clearing rest (or good part of the rest) in Oct/Nov.
Let's hope this comes true! I see that your PD is in 08/2009, very close to mine (last week of July '09)...so of course we have a vested interest in this! :)
Looking at your signature, I don't see any EAD details - is that because you just didn't add them or because you missed the boat, like me, in 2012 when the dates jumped up to 2010 PDs? Just curious...

[imdeng]

I did get EAD/AP in 2012 - thankfully - removed that stuff from the signature for de-clutter purposes.

Let's hope this comes true! I see that your PD is in 08/2009, very close to mine (last week of July '09)...so of course we have a vested interest in this! :)
Looking at your signature, I don't see any EAD details - is that because you just didn't add them or because you missed the boat, like me, in 2012 when the dates jumped up to 2010 PDs? Just curious...

[YTeleven]

USCIS processing data trends update with May'14 stats.
http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=4&charttype=1

Here is some pointers to note:

1) NSC has become bigger than TSC interms of EB 485 processing volumes

~~~~~~Pending~~~Pre-adj~~~RFE~~~~Completions~~~Receipts
NSC~~~~~51437~~~28827~~~4410~~~~~9685~~~~~~11656
TSC~~~~~39561~~~35416~~~4110~~~~~6828~~~~~~~7828

2) I-140 Completions have been dropped to 33% compare to the last year sametime
Period~~~~~~~~~~~~Total reciepts~~Total Completions
Oct'12 to May'13~~~~~~51564~~~~~~~~60386
Oct'13 to May'14~~~~~~47856~~~~~~~~39428

With this completion rate we can't get more than 70k total I-140 completions in FY'14 by Sep'14 which will be leser than ~18% campare to previous year completions.

[Spectator]

YTeleven,

For the spillover season, it is worth noting that TSC still has slightly more preadjudicated cases than NSC (55:45).

It's been clear for a while that the SC have been throttling the system (for whatever reason) by lowering their I-140 completion rates.

In September 2013, only 7.2k I-140 were shown as pending. That has tripled to 23.4k in May 2014 (8 months).

Depending on the makeup of that increased backlog, it has obvious dangers if (when) it is eventually released.

Monthly I-140 receipts year on year remain fairly similar.

This also somewhat reflects in the pending I-485 figures. The number of pending cases at the SC were as low as 43.7k in June 2013 (50.1k in September 2013). That has risen to 91k in May 2014. Of course, NSC and TSC handle more than EB cases.

In March 2014, USCIS reported 119k pending Employment Based cases at the SC, which would have also included preadjudicated cases. The Q3 figures will be interesting, when they are released.

[EB2EB2]

Hi Guru's , Sorry but I am really confused about the news regarding retrogression.
Any possibility that my number will come in the Sept bulletin ? EB2-India NSC | PD: Feb 23, 2009.

[vizcard]

Hi Guru's , Sorry but I am really confused about the news regarding retrogression.
Any possibility that my number will come in the Sept bulletin ? EB2-India NSC | PD: Feb 23, 2009.

Almost certainly yes.

[EB2EB2]

Ahh !! Awesome, Thanks vizcard. Let's hope it does.
And once the bulletin is out, I think it would take 2 months for the card to be shipped ? Is that right ?

[krishn]

when will be the July'14 inventory be released ?

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

[imdeng]

There is no fixed date of release. We are all waiting. It is already past the usual historical date for the event.

when will be the July'14 inventory be released ?

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

[Spectator]

The pdf properties show that the July 2013 USCIS Inventory was created on August 7, 2013.

Trackitt suggests it was released on August 9, 2013.

Historically, the Inventory is released about 4-6 weeks later than the period it represents.

[vyruss]

The pdf properties show that the July 2013 USCIS Inventory was created on August 7, 2013.

Trackitt suggests it was released on August 9, 2013.

Historically, the Inventory is released about 4-6 weeks later than the period it represents.

If this is about the 485 inventory, is that not released in October?

[krishn]

The pdf properties show that the July 2013 USCIS Inventory was created on August 7, 2013.

Trackitt suggests it was released on August 9, 2013.

Historically, the Inventory is released about 4-6 weeks later than the period it represents.

that makes me think once the uscis looks at this report in august first week and passes on that info to decide on the demand data/ visa bulletin then they will make it public. :-)

[Spectator]

If this is about the 485 inventory, is that not released in October?The USCIS Inventory is updated several times a year.

For instance, last FY, there were reports for

October 2012
January 2013
April 2013
July 2013

Since then there have also reports for

October 2013
January 2014
April 2014

See http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory for the full listing.

[YTeleven]

It's been clear for a while that the SC have been throttling the system (for whatever reason) by lowering their I-140 completion rates.

In September 2013, only 7.2k I-140 were shown as pending. That has tripled to 23.4k in May 2014 (8 months).

Depending on the makeup of that increased backlog, it has obvious dangers if (when) it is eventually released.



Spec,

I've an estimation for I-140 Approvals FY14 as follows:
I-140_Data~~~~Approvals~~~~Pending
FY14-1stHalf~~~~21323~~~~~~24495~~(ACTUALS)
FY14-2ndHalf~~~38777~~~~~~25000~~(PROJECTED)
FY2014~~~~~~~60000~~~~~~25000~~(PROJECTED)

If this turns out to be true then we will have a lowest ever approvals for I-140 with 60k for FY14.
This is a good news for EB2-I as these approvals will effect the spillover from EB1 & EB2-WW to EB2-I.
As you see I've taken a liberal approach to project the figures in FY14-2ndHalf and if we go by the actual figures of 1st half the overall approvals willbe even lower than 60k (may be around 50k) which will give even more spillover to EB2-I.
CAUTION to EB2-I: Since these are just I-140 applications sitting in the system for so many months they can be get released anytime and if that happens in Aug'14 then there is a significant decrease in the spillover to EB2-I as each of these I-140s will consume atleast 2 GCs(assuming corresponding I-485s will get approvals in Sep'14).

[4WatItsWorth]

Spec,

I've an estimation for I-140 Approvals FY14 as follows:
I-140_Data~~~~Approvals~~~~Pending
FY14-1stHalf~~~~21323~~~~~~24495~~(ACTUALS)
FY14-2ndHalf~~~38777~~~~~~25000~~(PROJECTED)
FY2014~~~~~~~60000~~~~~~25000~~(PROJECTED)

If this turns out to be true then we will have a lowest ever approvals for I-140 with 60k for FY14.
This is a good news for EB2-I as these approvals will effect the spillover from EB1 & EB2-WW to EB2-I.
As you see I've taken a liberal approach to project the figures in FY14-2ndHalf and if we go by the actual figures of 1st half the overall approvals willbe even lower than 60k (may be around 50k) which will give even more spillover to EB2-I.
CAUTION to EB2-I: Since these are just I-140 applications sitting in the system for so many months they can be get released anytime and if that happens in Aug'14 then there is a significant decrease in the spillover to EB2-I as each of these I-140s will consume atleast 2 GCs(assuming corresponding I-485s will get approvals in Sep'14).In terms of PD, where do you think that this "more" could take us? Any chance to 1Nov2009 -- based on how far in future the RFEs have gone?

[vizcard]

Spec,

I've an estimation for I-140 Approvals FY14 as follows:
I-140_Data~~~~Approvals~~~~Pending
FY14-1stHalf~~~~21323~~~~~~24495~~(ACTUALS)
FY14-2ndHalf~~~38777~~~~~~25000~~(PROJECTED)
FY2014~~~~~~~60000~~~~~~25000~~(PROJECTED)

If this turns out to be true then we will have a lowest ever approvals for I-140 with 60k for FY14.
This is a good news for EB2-I as these approvals will effect the spillover from EB1 & EB2-WW to EB2-I.
As you see I've taken a liberal approach to project the figures in FY14-2ndHalf and if we go by the actual figures of 1st half the overall approvals willbe even lower than 60k (may be around 50k) which will give even more spillover to EB2-I.
CAUTION to EB2-I: Since these are just I-140 applications sitting in the system for so many months they can be get released anytime and if that happens in Aug'14 then there is a significant decrease in the spillover to EB2-I as each of these I-140s will consume atleast 2 GCs(assuming corresponding I-485s will get approvals in Sep'14).

No new 485 application is getting approved this FY. There's just not enough time left.

[vizcard]

In terms of PD, where do you think that this "more" could take us? Any chance to 1Nov2009 -- based on how far in future the RFEs have gone?

This has nothing to do with priority dates moving for this FY. CO will look at the approvals (which are slow IMO) and look at the total spillover (which he will know accurately) and move the dates in the Sept VB accordingly. As I mentioned in my previous post, no first time I485 submitted now will be approved in this FY.

[YTeleven]

No new 485 application is getting approved this FY. There's just not enough time left.

Viz,

I'm not worried about new 485 filings..
As of 31-May-2014 there are arounf 26k pending 140 applications.. we don't know how many of these belongs to EB1 & EB2-Row with concurrent filings. If these happens to be major chunk of those pending files and if those 140s get approvals then that will have impact on the COD movement for EB2-I in Sep & Oct 14.

[Spectator]

YT,

I would agree with the 60k figure.

That compares to :

FY2013 - 78.1k
FY2012 - 70.0k
FY2011 - 81.3k

I think the liberal approach is probably correct. Both April and May saw a significant upswing in completions compared to previous months.

What is worrying is that although Completions may be low, Receipts are not. The monthly average rate for FY2012 to FY2014 has remained fairly constant at just under 6k per month.

A release of the pending I-140 at this stage probably won't affect FY2014 at all. Even if the I-485 was filed concurrently, the I-485 is increasingly unlikely to be adjudicated in FY2014.

I agree it is helpful to FY2014 numbers for EB2-I.

I do have concerns if a reduction in pending numbers hits FY2015 numbers. That would just pile one more negative onto a pretty bleak outlook.

[vedu]

Spec,

Your concerns about FY2015 are based on the assumption that next year USCIS will work with extra efficiency/resources to clear all pending I140 applications from this year as well as the new applications from the next year...right? But if they go back to their normal speed next year ( say similar to FY2013), then EB2I still stands to receive the spillover amount similar to a normal year.




I do have concerns if a reduction in pending numbers hits FY2015 numbers. That would just pile one more negative onto a pretty bleak outlook.

[suninphx]

Spec,

Your concerns about FY2015 are based on the assumption that next year USCIS will work with extra efficiency/resources to clear all pending I140 applications from this year as well as the new applications from the next year...right? But if they go back to their normal speed next year ( say similar to FY2013), then EB2I still stands to receive the spillover amount similar to FY2013.

Not sure at this point, if we get spillover similar to FY2013 , but unless we know (at least approximate) % of the filing in each category/country and type, I would not think its 'pretty bleak outlook' (for FY2015 for EB2I)

[vedu]

Suninphx,

I was using FY2013 as an example of a nomal year! I fixed my original post accordingly.


Not sure at this point, if we get spillover similar to FY2013 , but unless we know (at least approximate) % of the filing in each category/country and type, I would not think its 'pretty bleak outlook' (for FY2015 for EB2I)

[suninphx]

Suninphx,

I was using FY2013 as an example of a nomal year! I fixed my original post accordingly.

Ok - I see now what you meant

[Spectator]

Suninphx,

I was using FY2013 as an example of a normal year! I fixed my original post accordingly.I think it could be unfortunate if you think that FY2013 was a "normal" year in any sense of the word.

FY2013 followed the fiasco of FY2012, which meant that EB2-WW had rather more approvals than normal.

FY2013 also had 18.5k extra visas due to under use by FB in FY2012.

If you strip away the effect of the FB visas and normalize EB2-WW usage across FY2012/FY2013, then EB2-I would have received an average of about 10.7k approvals per year in FY2012/FY2013, compared to the average of 18.5k actually seen. In fact, because EB2-I received extra visas in addition to those that Spillover from other categories would have allowed, the underlying average number of approvals was just 7.7k per year.

With the likelihood of low numbers of FB visas, increased general use by EB1, EB5 and perhaps slightly higher than normal use by EB2-WW, I don't see much to believe that EB2-I will see the sort of SO that people have become used to and come to expect as "normal".

If FB contribute any visas in FY2015, CO has failed yet again and badly let down the FB community.

[vedu]

Spec,

Sorry...I didn't meant to misrepresent FY2013 to be specifically a normal year. I just wanted to make a point that next year USCIS will have to assign extra workload to existing officers OR employ additional resources to clear the excess backlog of I-140 applications piled this year along with the next year's new applications.


I think it could be unfortunate if you think that FY2013 was a "normal" year in any sense of the word.

FY2013 followed the fiasco of FY2012, which meant that EB2-WW had rather more approvals than normal.

FY2013 also had 18.5k extra visas due to under use by FB in FY2012.

If you strip away the effect of the FB visas and normalize EB2-WW usage across FY2012/FY2013, then EB2-I would have received an average of about 10.7k approvals per year in FY2012/FY2013, compared to the average of 18.5k actually seen. In fact, because EB2-I received extra visas in addition to those that Spillover from other categories would have allowed, the underlying average number of approvals was just 7.7k per year.

With the likelihood of low numbers of FB visas, increased general use by EB1, EB5 and perhaps slightly higher than normal use by EB2-WW, I don't see much to believe that EB2-I will see the sort of SO that people have become used to and come to expect as "normal".

If FB contribute any visas in FY2015, CO has failed yet again and badly let down the FB community.

[4WatItsWorth]

This has nothing to do with priority dates moving for this FY. CO will look at the approvals (which are slow IMO) and look at the total spillover (which he will know accurately) and move the dates in the Sept VB accordingly. As I mentioned in my previous post, no first time I485 submitted now will be approved in this FY.I don't get it. YT says lower 140 approval (?) could mean more spillover for EB2I and you are saying this has got nothing to do with dates moving. How does more spillover have got nothing to do with dates moving this year?

[Spectator]

Spec,

Sorry...I didn't meant to misrepresent FY2013 to be specifically a normal year. I just wanted to make a point that next year USCIS will have to assign extra workload to existing officers OR employ additional resources to clear the excess backlog of I-140 applications piled this year along with the next year's new applications.vedu,

OK, I understand now.

I'm not convinced USCIS will start reducing the backlog in any serious manner any time soon.

Just returning to a normal level where it doesn't increase will be another factor to increase I-485 approvals beyond the levels seen in FY2014.

The point I was trying to make is that there are a number of different factors that cumulatively could adversely affect the numbers available next FY.

It remains to be seen which ones come to pass.

[vedu]

I can't deny your statement below. But then there is also a possibility that by the end of FY2015, even with less than the normal spillover, EB2I dates will come close to April 2010, and therefore starting October 2015, DOS will have to open the floodgates again to generate the new demand for FY2016...sort of repeat of the 2012 year.


vedu,

The point I was trying to make is that there are a number of different factors that cumulatively could adversely affect the numbers available next FY.

[vizcard]

Viz,

I'm not worried about new 485 filings..
As of 31-May-2014 there are arounf 26k pending 140 applications.. we don't know how many of these belongs to EB1 & EB2-Row with concurrent filings. If these happens to be major chunk of those pending files and if those 140s get approvals then that will have impact on the COD movement for EB2-I in Sep & Oct 14.


I don't get it. YT says lower 140 approval (?) could mean more spillover for EB2I and you are saying this has got nothing to do with dates moving. How does more spillover have got nothing to do with dates moving this year?

YT,
While filing may be done concurrently, the processing of the 485 only starts after the 140 is approved. So for all intents and purposes they are "new" filings.

4WatItsWorth,
YTs statement does not impact spillover for 2014. It will impact spillover for next year.

[YTeleven]

Latest update on FY14Q3 PERM:
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY2014_Q3TD.pdf

FY14Q3 has become 15% bigger than FY13Q3. Looks like FY14 turns out to be another big year same as FY13 in terms of PERM reciepts.

More pain for EB2-I on the long run specifically for 2013 & 2014 applicants.

[Spectator]

Latest update on FY14Q3 PERM:
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY2014_Q3TD.pdf

FY14Q3 has become 15% bigger than FY13Q3. Looks like FY14 turns out to be another big year same as FY13 in terms of PERM reciepts.

More pain for EB2-I on the long run specifically for 2013 & 2014 applicants.YT,

Thanks for the update.

I see that there is a slight change in the format this time. It now shows the % change on the same Qtr from the previous Year. Previously, it was showing the % change on the Year to Date.

Indeed, Q3 FY2014 is 15% higher than Q3 FY2013.

Because Q2 FY2014 was 21% lower than Q2 FY2013, the overall YTD change is 1.6% lower than FY2013.

I also note that the number of pending applications reduced only 3.1k from Q2 to Q3 (5.3%) and still stands at 55.4k.

[iatiam]

YT,

Thanks for the update.

I see that there is a slight change in the format this time. It now shows the % change on the same Qtr from the previous Year. Previously, it was showing the % change on the Year to Date.

Indeed, Q3 FY2014 is 15% higher than Q3 FY2013.

Because Q2 FY2014 was 21% lower than Q2 FY2013, the overall YTD change is 1.6% lower than FY2013.

I also note that the number of pending applications reduced only 3.1k from Q2 to Q3 (5.3%) and still stands at 55.4k.

Spec,

So the 64$ question is, how bad the spillover be next year? 6k? or 10k? or could it be zero? I know its too early to take a guess, but from your experience, how does the mounting inventory translate to reduction of SO? Also, what do you think will be a good SO number to prompt CO to open the floodgates again?

Iatiam

[gten20]

Yeah.. when is the next inventory build up expected? With no CIR or no word on EAD for H4. I am starting to lose patience. I can't begin to imagine how frustrating it must be for EB3I.

[Spectator]

Spec,

So the 64$ question is, how bad the spillover be next year? 6k? or 10k? or could it be zero? I know its too early to take a guess, but from your experience, how does the mounting inventory translate to reduction of SO? Also, what do you think will be a good SO number to prompt CO to open the floodgates again?

Iatiamiatiam,

I don't want to speculate just yet. I need some more data points.

[AC_1980]

Note to the moderator, please move the post to where appropriate. Just wanted to make everyone aware of this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/23/passport-visa-glitch-delay_n_5615465.html

in case if anyone is planning a trip. My wife is stuck in Vancouver for 4 days now, went for H1B stamping, still have not gotten back passport.

[YTeleven]

Note to the moderator, please move the post to where appropriate. Just wanted to make everyone aware of this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/23/passport-visa-glitch-delay_n_5615465.html

in case if anyone is planning a trip. My wife is stuck in Vancouver for 4 days now, went for H1B stamping, still have not gotten back passport.


This is affecting both immigrant and non-immigrant visa systems world wide.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/immigrant_visas.html

[qesehmk]

Note to the moderator, please move the post to where appropriate. Just wanted to make everyone aware of this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/23/passport-visa-glitch-delay_n_5615465.html

in case if anyone is planning a trip. My wife is stuck in Vancouver for 4 days now, went for H1B stamping, still have not gotten back passport.
Thanks a ton AC_1980. I think people planning travel abroad to obtain Visa must pay attention to this and make decisions accordingly.

Since the glitch is of global nature - I bet it is also going to affect green card issuance. If it doesn't get resolved (highly unlikely) then it will result in wasted visas. However, if it does get resolved soon, then believe it or not - it will benefit backlogged countries because then all those un-issued permanent visas during glitch might be used for spillover. Just a perspective here - no calculations!

[fedupwithgc]

What do you guys think about TSC being very slow this year compared to NSC. There are only handful of approvals from them in Trackitt.... Very Frustrating.

[RMS_V13]

I remember reading on trackitt a couple of days back that someone was told that a bunch of TSC adjudicators were off site for some training. They are supposed to be back on Monday and within a week, we are supposed to see more approvals from the TSC. The original post sounded somewhat credible and I am inclined to believe it.

There is definitely something going on at TSC. We just need to wait. I think August and September will be the months when majority of approvals will happen.

congressional liaisons are on training, not adjudicators

[YTeleven]

EB based I-485 Application Completions last year.
---------------------------------------------
Month~~TSC~~~~~NSC~~~~~Total Completions
---------------------------------------------
Aug13~~11116~~~14609~~~25725
Sep13~~12018~~~13367~~~25385
Oct13~~11183~~~12817~~~24000
----------------------------------------------

If you see the last year processing data, you will notice that they have worked from Aug'13 thru Oct'13 to process year end applications and they mentioned the following in the Nov'13 DD dated 07-Oct-2013:

The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation
of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in
the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.

I've a strong feeling that they will follow the same trend this year too and continue process thru oct'14 by holding extra cases in pending demand file and allocating the visas later in Oct'14 from FY15 quota.
This way they can make sure not to waste a single visa from FY14 quota.

[PD2008AUG25]

What do you guys think about TSC being very slow this year compared to NSC. There are only handful of approvals from them in Trackitt.... Very Frustrating.


There are theories galore! AOs are abducted by aliens!

I think simple fact is TSC is slow, inefficient and swamped with work. As per published data, they take 7+ months for processing I-485s compared to 4 by other Service Centers. Applicants of other categories like K1 are also bemoaning excessive delays at TSC. I believe this trickle business will go on until November and there are no floodgates to be opened here. As you can see trackitt for last year, plenty of applicants in similar situation did not get GCs even as their dates were current for 3-4 months. Heck, NSC is issuing GCs to people who replied RFE 2 weeks ago. Advancing dates aggressively in September will only make matter worse for us TSCers.

SR, InfoPass or Senator/Congressmen, nothing seems to help those who are stuck.

[RoosterC]

What determines whether a case should be filed at TSC or NSC? I am wondering why my lawyer choose to file at TSC?

[whatever]

RoosterC,
Jurisdictions listed here..
http://www.immihelp.com/directory/servicecenters.html

[Kanmani]

What determines whether a case should be filed at TSC or NSC? I am wondering why my lawyer choose to file at TSC?

If you are referring to I-485 filing then the place where you live determines the service center.

NSC :
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Guam or the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

TSC:
Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, U.S. Virgin Islands, or West Virginia

Detailed here : http://www.uscis.gov/i-485-addresses

[RoosterC]

If you are referring to I-485 filing then the place where you live determines the service center.

NSC :
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Guam or the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

TSC:
Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, U.S. Virgin Islands, or West Virginia

Detailed here : http://www.uscis.gov/i-485-addresses

Actually I am in California. So wondering why my form was filed to TSC?

[justvisiting]

YT,

Thanks for the update.

I see that there is a slight change in the format this time. It now shows the % change on the same Qtr from the previous Year. Previously, it was showing the % change on the Year to Date.

Indeed, Q3 FY2014 is 15% higher than Q3 FY2013.

Because Q2 FY2014 was 21% lower than Q2 FY2013, the overall YTD change is 1.6% lower than FY2013.

I also note that the number of pending applications reduced only 3.1k from Q2 to Q3 (5.3%) and still stands at 55.4k.

PERM seems to be slowly picking up pace. Currently a 5 month wait, compared to a 7 month wait at the beginning of the year. Not a massive improvement, but something worth considering when estimating EB2-ROW+m+p

[Kanmani]

Actually I am in California. So wondering why my form was filed to TSC?

I have no idea on how it could be TSC. May be somebody could help you to figure out why! Did you double check your RN, LIN/SRC?

Did you file Concurrently both I-140 and I-485 ?

[RoosterC]

I have no idea on how it could be TSC. May be somebody could help you to figure out why! Did you double check your RN, LIN/SRC?

Did you file Concurrently both I-140 and I-485 ?

No. I filed along with everybody else in 2012 with approved I-140, which was also filed in TSC. All my EAD/AP and I485 were all filed at TSC. I got RFE recently also from TSC.

[RMS_V13]

No. I filed along with everybody else in 2012 with approved I-140, which was also filed in TSC. All my EAD/AP and I485 were all filed at TSC. I got RFE recently also from TSC.

I am from IL, but was filed with TSC because employer is based out of TX.

L2 actually told me that it will take 3-6 months to process apps. I almost said 'dude u gotta be kidding me'

This is all so screwed up.

[PDAUG052010]

I have been a silent reader of this forum for years and this is my first post. Thanks to all the gurus for their in depth analysis and contribution.

I just want to bring everybody's attention that a 2010 Feb EB2I PD has received RFE for medicals and EVL. It looks very odd. Is this just a one off instance?

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1454488105/pd-eb2-i-aug-2009-matt-gurus

See Post # 5.

[aquatican]

From most of predictions from the last bulletin ( release Jul 10)
it seems like Conservative is Mar 2009 and Wildly Optimistic is Nov 2009.

If we split the difference we get Jul 2009. In the next bulletin for September ( Upcoming Aug 10) I think there is a 50% chance we will get to this date with some + ve winds ( Slow approval speed, EB 2 ROW spillover)
and some -ve winds ( Extra #s for Chinese quote, Full utilization of EB5)

[imdeng]

Considering that the difference between 01JUL2009 and 01NOV2009 is just ~6K visas (thinnest demand period in recent history), EB2ROW approvals continue to be very sluggish (just 21 trackitt approvals in July so far) with no recent pickup in pace, even EB2I approvals in July being very slow (less than 2K visas issued so far in July), many EB2I cases bogged down in RFE process (not yet received RFE, not yet replied to RFE etc) - CO is perhaps looking at a decent amount of leftover supply to be finished in the last VB of the year. Plus 01NOV2009 is a logical point given the RFEs - I am holding hope for a 01NOV2009 PD for EB2I in the Sept VB.

/Wishful Thinking!

From most of predictions from the last bulletin ( release Jul 10)
it seems like Conservative is Mar 2009 and Wildly Optimistic is Nov 2009.

If we split the difference we get Jul 2009. In the next bulletin for September ( Upcoming Aug 10) I think there is a 50% chance we will get to this date with some + ve winds ( Slow approval speed, EB 2 ROW spillover)
and some -ve winds ( Extra #s for Chinese quote, Full utilization of EB5)

[gc_dec_2008]

All, I have a situation which is unusual, but may be someone has seen it before,

My 485 files in Feb 2012, My Priority Date is Dec-2008, last 2 years my case has not moved from status acceptance. I have not even received any RFE yet. I took an Infopass appointment and asked them what is going on, even they have no idea, they are saying write to Texas Service Center and ask them to expediate it as the priority date is current next month. I have requested my Lawyer to do so.

My EAD\AP was renewed twice without problem.
ANY ADVICE FROM ANYONE?

Thank you in Advance !!!

[imdeng]

This is the first time in my recall that someone has reported Medical RFE for EB2I PD post 01NOV2009 - so I guess we gotta wait for some more evidence to emerge. The user who reported it does not seem to be a very active/established user - so lets wait and watch.

I have been a silent reader of this forum for years and this is my first post. Thanks to all the gurus for their in depth analysis and contribution.

I just want to bring everybody's attention that a 2010 Feb EB2I PD has received RFE for medicals and EVL. It looks very odd. Is this just a one off instance?

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1454488105/pd-eb2-i-aug-2009-matt-gurus

See Post # 5.

[bluelabel]

Considering that the difference between 01JUL2009 and 01NOV2009 is just ~6K visas (thinnest demand period in recent history), EB2ROW approvals continue to be very sluggish (just 21 trackitt approvals in July so far) with no recent pickup in pace, even EB2I approvals in July being very slow (less than 2K visas issued so far in July), many EB2I cases bogged down in RFE process (not yet received RFE, not yet replied to RFE etc) - CO is perhaps looking at a decent amount of leftover supply to be finished in the last VB of the year. Plus 01NOV2009 is a logical point given the RFEs - I am holding hope for a 01NOV2009 PD for EB2I in the Sept VB.

/Wishful Thinking!

TSC pace is very slow so far in July and if this continues in August, USCIS may not use all available visas. Any chance that dates move into 2010 in September bulletin? Some one in Trackitt received Medical RFE for priority date in Feb 2010.

[imdeng]

As a matter of pure numbers, a move to mid-2009 is sufficient. Crazy situations can make a move to late 2009 possible (and in my wishful thinking - more probable than possible). But to 2010 seems as a very very remote possibility. Apart from the one report, we don't have confirmation of RFEs for post 01NOV2009. Plus now its pretty late in the FY to *start* sending RFE for a new time period. Still - weirder things have happened!


TSC pace is very slow so far in July and if this continues in August, USCIS may not use all available visas. Any chance that dates move into 2010 in September bulletin? Some one in Trackitt received Medical RFE for priority date in Feb 2010.

[qesehmk]

All, I have a situation which is unusual, but may be someone has seen it before,

My 485 files in Feb 2012, My Priority Date is Dec-2008, last 2 years my case has not moved from status acceptance. I have not even received any RFE yet. I took an Infopass appointment and asked them what is going on, even they have no idea, they are saying write to Texas Service Center and ask them to expediate it as the priority date is current next month. I have requested my Lawyer to do so.

My EAD\AP was renewed twice without problem.
ANY ADVICE FROM ANYONE?

Thank you in Advance !!!
If I were you I would just wait to receive the GC in next 2 months. No news is a good news in your case.

[PD2008AUG25]

TSC pace is very slow so far in July and if this continues in August, USCIS may not use all available visas. Any chance that dates move into 2010 in September bulletin? Some one in Trackitt received Medical RFE for priority date in Feb 2010.

Moving dates aggressively will only help to use up all visas if there was enough time to process all (+new) applications. This year is different as most applicants got RFEs and they need be processed. At this point, there is no dearth of pending applications, what is lacking is time/manpower to process all those applications/RFEs.

[PD2008AUG25]

I have not even received any RFE yet. I took an Infopass appointment and asked them what is going on, even they have no idea, they are saying write to Texas Service Center and ask them to expediate it as the priority date is current next month. I have requested my Lawyer to do so.



I have seen at least one 2012 filer getting approved without any RFE. Your case could be the same.

[aquatican]

That is a very interesting observation. I wonder if the slow processing and the fact that moving dates will bring in new demand ( which cannot translate into Actual Visa Number usage) is a factor for CO.
IMHO it would be tragic if EB2I has wasted numbers.


Moving dates aggressively will only help to use up all visas if there was enough time to process all (+new) applications. This year is different as most applicants got RFEs and they need be processed. At this point, there is no dearth of pending applications, what is lacking is time/manpower to process all those applications/RFEs.

[jimmys]

I have no idea on how it could be TSC. May be somebody could help you to figure out why! Did you double check your RN, LIN/SRC?

Did you file Concurrently both I-140 and I-485 ?

Jurisdiction based on employer's location. Not based on employee's location. If you're a consultant living in CA and your consultancy is in TX, your 485 should be filed in TSC. Employee's location is irrelevant for jurisdiction.

[gc_dec_2008]

Thank you Q ! that's positive thinking, the other side is someone has not looked at it, my first 485 application was rejected saying priority date not current and was later accepted. Risk of not doing is waiting another year?

[qesehmk]

Thank you Q ! that's positive thinking, the other side is someone has not looked at it, my first 485 application was rejected saying priority date not current and was later accepted. Risk of not doing is waiting another year?
As of now there is no risk because you are still within the window of approval. If 2-3 months pass by since your date is current and you don't receive approval then it might make sense to call congressman / uscis etc etc. But for now - I wouldn't do anything if I were you.

[self.coach]

Considering that the difference between 01JUL2009 and 01NOV2009 is just ~6K visas (thinnest demand period in recent history), EB2ROW approvals continue to be very sluggish (just 21 trackitt approvals in July so far) with no recent pickup in pace, even EB2I approvals in July being very slow (less than 2K visas issued so far in July), many EB2I cases bogged down in RFE process (not yet received RFE, not yet replied to RFE etc) - CO is perhaps looking at a decent amount of leftover supply to be finished in the last VB of the year. Plus 01NOV2009 is a logical point given the RFEs - I am holding hope for a 01NOV2009 PD for EB2I in the Sept VB.

/Wishful Thinking!

Hi IMDENG,

If Sept'14 VB goes to Nov'09, what does it mean for you and me, considering our PDs are in Aug'09? I responded to the obvious RFEs on July 24 and my case status updated to "RFE Response received". I am not sure if that means we get a GC in x number of days, or if it means something else, or nothing at all.

[vizcard]

Jurisdiction based on employer's location. Not based on employee's location. If you're a consultant living in CA and your consultancy is in TX, your 485 should be filed in TSC. Employee's location is irrelevant for jurisdiction.

Totally false!
It is always dependent on employee's residence. please see the link that Kanmani posted. It says "If you live in"... not "If you work in".

[PD2008AUG25]

That is a very interesting observation. I wonder if the slow processing and the fact that moving dates will bring in new demand ( which cannot translate into Actual Visa Number usage) is a factor for CO.
IMHO it would be tragic if EB2I has wasted numbers.

Pre-adjudicated low hanging fruit scenario isn't applicable this year. If TSC has systematic problem(s) that can't be resolved in 2-3 months, CO has an option of moving dates aggressively in September because NSC is doing great. That way NSC can use up numbers and over all wastage can be minimized even as TSC filers will suffer. September 09' makes more sense now, doesn't it? :(

[jimmys]

Jurisdiction based on employer's location. Not based on employee's location. If you're a consultant living in CA and your consultancy is in TX, your 485 should be filed in TSC. Employee's location is irrelevant for jurisdiction.


Totally false!
It is always dependent on employee's residence. please see the link that Kanmani posted. It says "If you live in"... not "If you work in".

Sorry. I stand corrected. Kanmani was right. I was under the impression that it's based on employer's location. I didn't know it because I never filed 485. Thanks for the info anyway.

[vizcard]

Pre-adjudicated low hanging fruit scenario isn't applicable this year. If TSC has systematic problem(s) that can't be resolved in 2-3 months, CO has an option of moving dates aggressively in September because NSC is doing great. That way NSC can use up numbers and over all wastage can be minimized even as TSC filers will suffer. September 09' makes more sense now, doesn't it? :(

You are just a ray of sunshine, aren't you? :)

If dates move till Sept 2009 it will be the slow pace of overall approvals, that will drive that movement. CO has to make that call in the next 2 weeks. Now if there is something indeed broken at TSC, the USCIS will re-route applications. They do that now to balance workload. Also, it will be public info pretty quick. I don't really see much of a risk where too many 2009 people will get approved before 2008 ppl

[gc_dec_2008]

Sure, I would be really interested to hear !

[gc_dec_2008]

Thanks Q ! gives a lot of hope !

[imdeng]

It means that we will be part of the lottery. Only a fraction of late 2009 folks will get greened in Sept (and perhaps Oct) this year (if indeed dates reach that far, big if). If we are not part of the lucky few, then we continue to wait until next summer.

The status of RFE RR does not mean anything more than the fact that USCIS has received your RFE Response. Nothing beyond that - no X days or anything - although they do mention a 60 day time frame in the status message.


Hi IMDENG,

If Sept'14 VB goes to Nov'09, what does it mean for you and me, considering our PDs are in Aug'09? I responded to the obvious RFEs on July 24 and my case status updated to "RFE Response received". I am not sure if that means we get a GC in x number of days, or if it means something else, or nothing at all.

[self.coach]

It means that we will be part of the lottery. Only a fraction of late 2009 folks will get greened in Sept (and perhaps Oct) this year (if indeed dates reach that far, big if). If we are not part of the lucky few, then we continue to wait until next summer.

The status of RFE RR does not mean anything more than the fact that USCIS has received your RFE Response. Nothing beyond that - no X days or anything - although they do mention a 60 day time frame in the status message.

LOL Thanks. I feel like I am asking 1+1 in a class full of Math PHDs. What I was trying to feel is that is there a possibility that the dates move to Nov'09 in the next two bulletins, and we still do not get greened (assuming no problems with the application) due to 'timing' reasons?

[Kanmani]

LOL Thanks. I feel like I am asking 1+1 in a class full of Math PHDs. What I was trying to feel is that is there a possibility that the dates move to Nov'09 in the next two bulletins, and we still do not get greened (assuming no problems with the application) due to 'timing' reasons?

On a fun note, don't ask them, you could teach them 1+1, as higher level mathematics would mimic physics theorems. My core major is maths, not a PhD though.

Answer to your question, Yes . There is a good chance that we could be missed out, but we, late 2009 ers are keeping low profile on that thought, yet wishfully thinking (as imdeng says) we would get through this time !

[self.coach]

On a fun note, don't ask them, you could teach them 1+1, as higher level mathematics would mimic physics theorems. My core major is maths, not a PhD though.

Answer to your question, Yes . There is a good chance that we could be missed out, but we, late 2009 ers are keeping low profile on that thought, yet wishfully thinking (as imdeng says) we would get through this time !

Thanks @Imdeng and @Kanmani. நன்றி

[bluelabel]

I-485 Inventory is out. Any changes in calculations for date movement?

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/EB-I-485-Pending-Inventory-July2014.pdf

[EB2-03252009]

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/EB-I-485-Pending-Inventory-July2014.pdf

[tatikonda]

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/EB-I-485-Pending-Inventory-July2014.pdf

Inventory data is a floating data, so there can't me much read thru this data.
except that, we know for certain that there are Approx 5708 new cases are added in EB1, 2769 new cases in EB2 plus any new cases which were already approved in EB from April to July to the overall EB category.. which is approx 8477 plus already approved in last 3 months..

[meragc]

This has nothing to do with priority dates moving for this FY. CO will look at the approvals (which are slow IMO) and look at the total spillover (which he will know accurately) and move the dates in the Sept VB accordingly. As I mentioned in my previous post, no first time I485 submitted now will be approved in this FY.

hi Vizcard,
my status is as follows

| EB2-I | PD: 02/11/09 | Waiting for date to be current to file I-485.

as per you, no first time i-485 will be approved this year, what time lines should i be looking at in terms of getting EAD, AP and GC?

[PD2008AUG25]

You are just a ray of sunshine, aren't you? :)

I don't really see much of a risk where too many 2009 people will get approved before 2008 ppl


I know I am being impatient. But things aren’t looking too good for TSC. There is no precedent with TSC in last four year where they issued no/few GCs when dates were moved forward and they had approvable applications. I am not sure why everyone assumes TSC will just flip the switch one day and will start approving. It has never happened in the past.

Based on Trackitt data. (2012 is an odd year because demand went down to zero.)

Movement of PD * Bulletin * TSC Approvals

7 months 2010 July 176
5 months 2010 August 177
2.25 months 2010 September 123

1.75 months 2011 May 64
3.5 months 2011 June 118
4.75 months 2011 July 198
1.25 months 2011 August 81

3 months 2011 October 55
3.5 months 2011 November 29
4.5 months 2011 December 35

9.5 months 2012 January 76
12 months 2012 February 264
4 months 2012 March 308
0 Months 2012 April 4

40 months 2013 August 341
5.5 months 2013 September 440
0 months 2013 October 254
0 months 2013 November 138

45.5 months 2014 July 54

If dates are moved aggressively in September bulletin, it would be evidence that CO fears wastage by TSC and there won’t be any respite for TSC filers.

[vizcard]

If dates are moved aggressively in September bulletin, it would be evidence that CO fears wastage by TSC and there won’t be any respite for TSC filers.

I agree with the bolded part... Not the rest.....atleast not yet.

[PD2008AUG25]

I agree with the bolded part... Not the rest.....atleast not yet.

I think picture should be more clear first 2 weeks of August. Four months of movement in 2013 produced almost 1200 trackitt approvals from TSC. If dates don't retrogress before December, TSC has to produce 250-300 approvals a month in remaining four months. We should see daily 7-10 approvals daily in August, that will be enough to shut me up.

[qbloguser]

This is a very good news for 2009-ers.


Interesting information from the tracker: waitin4GcGuy has PD 01/14/2009, approved on 07/23/2014.
this is creating more chaos.

[imdeng]

Don't know how much credence to give to this report. There is no source. The claim is that more than 500 EB2C applicants have *downgraded* to EB3C. Click Here (http://www.immigrationiowa.com/priority-date-predictions/)

EB3C PD > EB2C PD for at least near future - so it does make sense from a pure PD point of view.

Update> I misread. There is a source. Apparently it was from the May meeting of lawyers with CO.

[vizcard]

Interesting information from the tracker: waitin4GcGuy has PD 01/14/2009, approved on 07/23/2014.
this is creating more chaos.


This is a very good news for 2009-ers.

Must be an error on someone's part since 2009 PDs are not current. Either he entered 2009 instead of 2008 or USCIS goofed up. Either way, good for him/her.

[vizcard]

Don't know how much credence to give to this report. There is no source. The claim is that more than 500 EB2C applicants have *downgraded* to EB3C. Click Here (http://www.immigrationiowa.com/priority-date-predictions/)

EB3C PD > EB2C PD for at least near future - so it does make sense from a pure PD point of view.

Update> I misread. There is a source. Apparently it was from the May meeting of lawyers with CO.

Doesn't impact EB2I in the short term but it will help EB2C get closer to being "C"

[imdeng]

That's my feeling too. Trackitt has enough wrong/incomplete information floating around. Getting GC while not being current is kinda not even borderline - unless we have other reports of something similar happening - I would chalk it up to just unconfirmed rumor.

Must be an error on someone's part since 2009 PDs are not current. Either he entered 2009 instead of 2008 or USCIS goofed up. Either way, good for him/her.

[imdeng]

USCIS is dealing with 600K+ DACA renewals these days. DACAs will start expiring starting in Sept and renewals can be applied in a 120 day window before expiration. Wonder if that is what is slowing EB approvals, especially TSC. DACA renewals include an EAD - so they have to meet a 90 day timeline for it too.

BTW: $465 fee per renewal X 600K renewals = $279 Million revenue for USCIS. Guess they can afford to hire more staff and speed up processing, if they want/need to.

[Spectator]

krishn,

If you ignore the increase in 2012 and add an amount for CP cases, then the reduction would be a little over 4k for the period. That's a pretty good agreement to the figures I have calculated for the period.

By my reckoning, EB3-ROW has already reached somewhere in the expected maximum range for FY2014. Any further visas would now depend on EB3-P not being able to reach their overall 7% figure.

It seems more likely that the dates will not move again until October, when the FY2015 allocation becomes available.

I don't believe EB3-ROW had 9k available for Q4, due to very heavy approvals in Q1 & Q2 in particular.

Trackitt Approvals

Q1 - 94
Q2 - 136
Q3 - 45
Q4 - 1 (to date)

[vizcard]

USCIS is dealing with 600K+ DACA renewals these days. DACAs will start expiring starting in Sept and renewals can be applied in a 120 day window before expiration. Wonder if that is what is slowing EB approvals, especially TSC. DACA renewals include an EAD - so they have to meet a 90 day timeline for it too.

BTW: $465 fee per renewal X 600K renewals = $279 Million revenue for USCIS. Guess they can afford to hire more staff and speed up processing, if they want/need to.

$279M from renewals?! Damn...No wonder they say immigrants contribute to the economy!

[imdeng]

Here is another back of the envelope calculation. Mandatory grain of salt required - lots of assumptions and rough calculations.

1. PERM for ROW/M/P/C (henceforth EEI: Everybody Except India) is averaging ~23K per year in last few years. Rough figure - don't fight it - just accept it - we can do sensitivity to this later.
2. 23K PERM means a demand of 23 * 2.2 Visas per PERM * 1.2 Factor for NIW = ~61K
3. EB-2/3 has allocation of 80K - so we get total allocation of 19K to EB-2/3-I. This is only horizontal spillover in a steady state when EB-2/3-EEI is Current. Right now much of this spillover will not happen since EB-3EEI is far from being Current.
3. Assume 70% to EB2, 30% to EB3. EB2EEI demand ~43K, EB3EEI demand ~18K
4. So in a steady state scenario (when both EB2EEI and EB3EEI are Current), EB2I will get no horizontal spillover - just 3K normal allocation. EB2EEI will get backlogged by 6K (40 - 3 - 43) per year, EB3I will get 19K (40 - 3 - 18) horizontal spillover for total 22K allocation.

Hmm... so in couple of years when we actually reach the steady state above, assuming no FB spillover and no vertical spillover from EB-1/4/5, EB2I is going to get shafted big time while EB3I backlog will clear rapidly. It is also possible that EB3 will become current all around and provide vertical spillover (to EB1 and then hopefully going down to EB2).

Have I made any mistakes above? The conclusion portends a way too horrible future for EB2I! Of course when the above starts happening, EB applicants will start applying into EB-3 rather than EB-2, so the 70:30 ratio will change.

Even if we do a neutral case of 50:50, We will have EB-2/3-EEI demand as 30.5K each, giving EB-2/3-I total allocation of 9.5K each for a total of 19K. Considering EB-I PERM numbers are now in 30K+ range - we can get a sense of the whacking that lies ahead.

[Aurora]

That's my feeling too. Trackitt has enough wrong/incomplete information floating around. Getting GC while not being current is kinda not even borderline - unless we have other reports of something similar happening - I would chalk it up to just unconfirmed rumor.

Guru's,

There are 222 EB2I approvals as per Trackitt approvals sheet meaning in real 2886 (approx). Does this mean, till now USCIS got FY 2014-15 quota visa numbers and not SO visa numbers yet from CO. May be CO is waiting to see what are the real numbers from other categories, how many available and then allot visa numbers step by step or move COD if needed as per SO and provide visa numbers accordingly?

Just a thought. What do you think?

Note: We have not seen many approvals this week.

Regards!

[imdeng]

General opinion is that the regular quota was already blown away in Oct/Nov. We are definitely consuming spillover at this point.

There are 222 EB2I approvals as per Trackitt approvals sheet meaning in real 2886 (approx). Does this mean, till now USCIS got FY 2014-15 quota visa numbers and not SO visa numbers yet from CO. May be CO is waiting to see what are the real numbers from other categories, how many available and then move COD as per SO and provide visa numbers accordingly?

[Jagan01]

Hi,

I needed to know what should be filled under the I94 number section on the I485. My last entry into US was in 2011 and that I94 expired in 2011 itself. Since then I have had new H1 approval (in 2012) and the I797 receipt has a new I94. Should I be using the I94 number on the latest I797 approval OR should I be using the I94 number that was stamped in my passport in 2011 during my last entry.

Please move this to appropriate topic after I get a few replies.

[bieber]

Hi,

I needed to know what should be filled under the I94 number section on the I485. My last entry into US was in 2011 and that I94 expired in 2011 itself. Since then I have had new H1 approval (in 2012) and the I797 receipt has a new I94. Should I be using the I94 number on the latest I797 approval OR should I be using the I94 number that was stamped in my passport in 2011 during my last entry.

Please move this to appropriate topic after I get a few replies.

Jagan

Your I94 on new H1 should match the old I94 number from the travel. Only the expiration date keeps changing with I94

[Aurora]

General opinion is that the regular quota was already blown away in Oct/Nov. We are definitely consuming spillover at this point.

My bad, I meant they would have got FY 2015 numbers (in advance). Instead of using them in Oct/Nov, CO might have used now. Might get clear picture of SO in coming months then allocate accordingly. End of the day we all expect not to waste any visa's :).......

[Spectator]

My bad, I meant they would have got FY 2015 numbers (in advance). Instead of using them in Oct/Nov, CO might have used now. Might get clear picture of SO in coming months then allocate accordingly. End of the day we all expect not to waste any visa's :).......The law does not allow that.

FY2015 numbers can only be used from October 1, 2014.

[Kanmani]

Oct 1 2014 Spec

[bluelabel]

Here is another back of the envelope calculation. Mandatory grain of salt required - lots of assumptions and rough calculations.

1. PERM for ROW/M/P/C (henceforth EEI: Everybody Except India) is averaging ~23K per year in last few years. Rough figure - don't fight it - just accept it - we can do sensitivity to this later.
2. 23K PERM means a demand of 23 * 2.2 Visas per PERM * 1.2 Factor for NIW = ~61K
3. EB-2/3 has allocation of 80K - so we get total allocation of 19K to EB-2/3-I. This is only horizontal spillover in a steady state when EB-2/3-EEI is Current. Right now much of this spillover will not happen since EB-3EEI is far from being Current.
3. Assume 70% to EB2, 30% to EB3. EB2EEI demand ~43K, EB3EEI demand ~18K
4. So in a steady state scenario (when both EB2EEI and EB3EEI are Current), EB2I will get no horizontal spillover - just 3K normal allocation. EB2EEI will get backlogged by 6K (40 - 3 - 43) per year, EB3I will get 19K (40 - 3 - 18) horizontal spillover for total 22K allocation.

Hmm... so in couple of years when we actually reach the steady state above, assuming no FB spillover and no vertical spillover from EB-1/4/5, EB2I is going to get shafted big time while EB3I backlog will clear rapidly. It is also possible that EB3 will become current all around and provide vertical spillover (to EB1 and then hopefully going down to EB2).

Have I made any mistakes above? The conclusion portends a way too horrible future for EB2I! Of course when the above starts happening, EB applicants will start applying into EB-3 rather than EB-2, so the 70:30 ratio will change.

Even if we do a neutral case of 50:50, We will have EB-2/3-EEI demand as 30.5K each, giving EB-2/3-I total allocation of 9.5K each for a total of 19K. Considering EB-I PERM numbers are now in 30K+ range - we can get a sense of the whacking that lies ahead.


Since EB2C is not current, they would not consume any spillovers. Out of 23K PERMs if 5K belongs China, and 70% of them are Eb2, it would turn out to be 9240 visas. So potential spillover is 6440 to India. EB2C is may not become current in next 2-3 years.

[Jagan01]

Jagan

Your I94 on new H1 should match the old I94 number from the travel. Only the expiration date keeps changing with I94

Thanks for the reply but they do not match. My i797 renewal was done prior to my short India trip. Hence the two numbers don't match. The subsequent h1 after I changed jobs was based on the i797 approval and hence the new h1 has the amen umber as previous i797 approval.

[Spectator]

It is also possible that EB3 will become current all around and provide vertical spillover (to EB1 and then hopefully going down to EB2).imdeng,

There is no provision in law for under use of EB3 visas to be used by other EB Categories (although it hasn't stopped CO from doing so in recent years).

Under the law, visas wasted in EB3 should result in under use of the overall EB allocation and would fall to the FB calculation in the next FY.

[Kanmani]

Thanks for the reply but they do not match. My i797 renewal was done prior to my short India trip. Hence the two numbers don't match. The subsequent h1 after I changed jobs was based on the i797 approval and hence the new h1 has the amen umber as previous i797 approval.

Jagan,

In general they do match. Getting a new I-94 number do not hurt the process anyway. Use the latest one.

[sairam09]

imdeng,

There is no provision in law for under use of EB3 visas to be used by other EB Categories (although it hasn't stopped CO from doing so in recent years).

Under the law, visas wasted in EB3 should result in under use of the overall EB allocation and would fall to the FB calculation in the next FY.

Spec where do you see this fiscal dates movement parked for EB2-I?

[imdeng]

Thanks for clarifying Spec. I had the thought that EB3 numbers, if available, will fall vertically to EB1 and then to EB2 - just like EB4/5 do.

imdeng,

There is no provision in law for under use of EB3 visas to be used by other EB Categories (although it hasn't stopped CO from doing so in recent years).

Under the law, visas wasted in EB3 should result in under use of the overall EB allocation and would fall to the FB calculation in the next FY.

[Spectator]

Spec where do you see this fiscal dates movement parked for EB2-I?sairam,

I wish I could give you a simple answer - I can't.

The change in I-693 policy and the ability of the SC to issue RFE to all affected cases and process responses is in danger of causing a substantial disconnect between the number of cases pending (which is reasonably well known) and the demand they will create for DOS to issue visas within the FY2014 allocation (which is not).

Added to this is the continued apparent high consumption of EB1 (and possibly EB5).

I'll run through the whole spectrum of possibilities as I see them:

If CO chooses to move the COD purely based on the demand he is seeing generated to date, then he would probably have to move the EB2-I dates quite aggressively. There would be little point moving beyond a COD of 01NOV09, since that appears to be the high water mark for RFE issuance to date. All cases with a PD beyond June 14, 2008 must be more than one year old, other than those submitted from July 2014 onwards.

It's quite possible that CO has been in communication with USCIS (or will be) regarding processing timescales and the ability of USCIS to adjudicate sufficient cases. If that is the case, the forward movement could be more modest, assuming he believes the response he receives.

Finally, there is a very remote possibility that CO will both move EB2-I aggressively and also move some other Countries/Categories further than he might otherwise have done. That would present the opportunity for some other Categories/Countries to benefit from spare visas if he believes insufficient demand from EB2-I can be generated before year end. Certainly some December 2003 EB3-I applicants have reported receiving RFE for an updated I-693 - a date that is unattainable within the original EB3-I allocation. EB2-C (maybe) and EB3-C/M/ROW would also be in a position to mop up any spare visas, if the COD was moved forward. it would turn into a complete crap shoot, so I don't think this is a very likely scenario.

USCIS have yet again shown a complete inability to organize the proverbial "piss up in a brewery". The fault lies there and DOS have little ability to influence them.

Whatever happens, each scenario creates its own problems, either now, or in the future.

Treat my reply as the ramblings of a somewhat frustrated person, rather than an entirely well thought out answer.

[qesehmk]

USCIS have yet again shown a complete inability to organize the proverbial "piss up in a brewery".

Spec - I am really curious what you mean here!

Please reply about the first part of the sentence publicly. And since I am not quite familiar with second part - we can discuss that too over email privately ;)

[sairam09]

sairam,

I wish I could give you a simple answer - I can't.

The change in I-693 policy and the ability of the SC to issue RFE to all affected cases and process responses is in danger of causing a substantial disconnect between the number of cases pending (which is reasonably well known) and the demand they will create for DOS to issue visas within the FY2014 allocation (which is not).

Added to this is the continued apparent high consumption of EB1 (and possibly EB5).

I'll run through the whole spectrum of possibilities as I see them:

If CO chooses to move the COD purely based on the demand he is seeing generated to date, then he would probably have to move the EB2-I dates quite aggressively. There would be little point moving beyond a COD of 01NOV09, since that appears to be the high water mark for RFE issuance to date. All cases with a PD beyond June 14, 2008 must be more than one year old, other than those submitted from July 2014 onwards.

It's quite possible that CO has been in communication with USCIS (or will be) regarding processing timescales and the ability of USCIS to adjudicate sufficient cases. If that is the case, the forward movement could be more modest, assuming he believes the response he receives.

Finally, there is a very remote possibility that CO will both move EB2-I aggressively and also move some other Countries/Categories further than he might otherwise have done. That would present the opportunity for some other Categories/Countries to benefit from spare visas if he believes insufficient demand from EB2-I can be generated before year end. Certainly some December 2003 EB3-I applicants have reported receiving RFE for an updated I-693 - a date that is unattainable within the original EB3-I allocation. EB2-C (maybe) and EB3-C/M/ROW would also be in a position to mop up any spare visas, if the COD was moved forward. it would turn into a complete crap shoot, so I don't think this is a very likely scenario.

USCIS have yet again shown a complete inability to organize the proverbial "piss up in a brewery". The fault lies there and DOS have little ability to influence them.

Whatever happens, each scenario creates its own problems, either now, or in the future.

Treat my reply as the ramblings of a somewhat frustrated person, rather than an entirely well thought out answer.

Thanks for your response..

"Treat my reply as the ramblings of a somewhat frustrated person, rather than an entirely well thought out answer." - This is what each individual is facing or under going right now..

[Spectator]

Spec - I am really curious what you mean here!

Please reply about the first part of the sentence publicly. And since I am not quite familiar with second part - we can discuss that too over email privately ;)Q,

Perhaps it's slang you are not familiar with.

A "piss up" means a group of people going out and drinking a lot (of beer).

Hence, "if someone couldn't organize a piss-up in a brewery", they are very bad at organizing things (to put it mildly).

[sairam09]

Spec for others who is not familiar with the slang, sounds like some is adulterating the original brewing factory...:)

[Spectator]

Spec for others who is not familiar with the slang, sounds like some is adulterating the original brewing factory...:)That would just be a tragic waste of beer!!!

Well, some beers anyway. There's a few I think taste like that has already happened.

[MATT2012]

That would just be a tragic waste of beer!!!
Do you anticipate visa wastage?

[Spectator]

Do you anticipate visa wastage?Matt,

Probably not, depending where the COD moves to. I assume you mean EB2-I wastage.

I can't get any sort of handle on the number of RFE that have been sent out to date, which makes an assessment rather difficult.

What's your view?

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec. I am not quite familiar with all these things!

But my question was - what is it that USCIS is doing (or not doing) currently that made you say that? Or is this just a general opinion.

I kind of share that opinion - just for the record. But just curious if something new happened.

Q,

Perhaps it's slang you are not familiar with.

A "piss up" means a group of people going out and drinking a lot (of beer).

Hence, "if someone couldn't organize a piss-up in a brewery", they are very bad at organizing things (to put it mildly).

[Jagan01]

Thanks Spec. I am not quite familiar with all these things!

But my question was - what is it that USCIS is doing (or not doing) currently that made you say that? Or is this just a general opinion.

I kind of share that opinion - just for the record. But just curious if something new happened.

Forgive my ignorance. I fail to understand this talk about visa wastage.

I feel last year USCIS did assign the visa numbers and later approved the cases in Oct and November. This scenario was put up by Q and I do believe that it happened. If USCIS can assign visa numbers and then give the actual visas in Oct/Nov then the same would happen this year. I do not see a possibility of visa wastage. Lets consider the rate of approvals is lower in Aug as well. The RFEs would surely be processed by Sep and visa numbers will be assigned and people will get approvals in Oct.

Once USCIS runs out with the pre-assigned numbers and the initial quota of the FY22015, they will internally retrogress the dates. Just like they did last year.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. I am not quite familiar with all these things!

But my question was - what is it that USCIS is doing (or not doing) currently that made you say that? Or is this just a general opinion.

I kind of share that opinion - just for the record. But just curious if something new happened.Q,

Nothing new I think.

I don't think it would have involved rocket science to have systematically issued RFE to those that required them based on PD and expiry date. That does not appear to have happened. Instead, RFE have been issued with seemingly indiscriminate dates. Some people have been approved before the previous I-693 expired, some may not receive them in time, while others are in danger of having to repeat medicals again next year.

Also, the time it is taking for RFE responses to reach the adjudicator to make a final decision on the case seem exceedingly long.

[Spectator]

Jagan01,

It's not a view I share.

[Aurora]

"Certainly some December 2003 EB3-I applicants have reported receiving RFE for an updated I-693 - a date that is unattainable within the original EB3-I allocation. EB2-C (maybe) and EB3-C/M/ROW would also be in a position to mop up any spare visas"

Spec,

Is it not mandatory rule/law that SO should be used for EB2I first before assigning visas to EB2C(cos PD is > EB2I), EB3I, EB3C or other countries/categories. I didn't get your statement "benefit from spare visas if he believes insufficient demand from EB2-I can be generated before year end. " how can EB2I be in less demand when there are clear numbers in DD/Inventory just released. Adjudication is same for all categories/countries and IMO I693 issue is valid for all countries/categories right?

Thanks!

[MATT2012]

Matt,

Probably not. I assume you mean EB2-I wastage.

I can't get any sort of handle on the number of RFE that have been sent out to date, which makes the reply difficult.

What's your view?
Yes, EB2I,
I am very much disappointed with the level of approvals, especially from TSC where roughly 55% or more cases traditionally represent. With the level of approvals, they may not even finish the cases that are current in July. From the trackitt data you maintain here, there are roughly 170 EB2I approvals this month. That is roughly 1850-2250 approvals, depending on the conversion ratio. Last fiscal, USCIS would have approved around 14.5 K EB 2 I cases between August and September. Between the movements in July and August, there are roughly 13 k cases + new interfile cases.( May be around 15.5 K cases total). Unless TSC gears up significantly, I do not see them completing many cases. With the chances of further movement in September and if it adds another 6.5k, the total will be around 22k. With 2k or so already greened, around 16k cases needs to be completed between August and September( I took 4k carried forward). I certainly don't see approvals picking up that fast, unless cases are already in the very final stage of visa allocation. The pace required to complete that many cases is certainly achievable but that pace should be much faster than what we noticed last year..

From the inventory, EB2ROW cases are increasing, my hope is,if EB2 I approvals are getting delayed, due to the new medical policy, they have a buffer build in EB2 ROW, and visa wastage can be avoided. That way the risk is spread between this year and early next year..

Note: 6.5 k number is just an assumption, please don't question me..it can be higher or lower..

[Jagan01]

Jagan01,

It's not a view I share.

Spec,

I understand. I was myself not a believer of the opinion that visa numbers can be assigned from one FY and then approvals being sent out in Oct of next FY. However, the I485 pending inventory showed evidence enough to convince me to embrace that view.

There was a huge decrease in the pending inventory between Oct and Apr pending inventories. The decrease is not evident from Eb2 numbers but it is seen in EB3I numbers. Many ported and hence EB2I did not see that huge decrease. It was kind of (X(original pending in Eb2I) + Y(Porting from EB3I to EB2i) - Y(Approvals in EB2I) = X)

This decrease in EB3I was almost 3400 and that in Eb2I was 1400. Total approvals in EB2i would have been approximately 4800 in this FY. I am sure that CO did not use SO that early and some of the 4800 did come from previous FY.

[qesehmk]

Just to keep things in perspective - 10 years back USCIS would literally waste tends of thousands of visas.

I can say with 100% confidence that that's not going to happen again - at least not this year.

But will USCIS waste 500 / 1000/ 1500 visas in a category. Nobody can rule that out.

As per October Approvals - yes indeed I believe that some of the approvals spill into October. But not November. That goes too far.

The reason is simple. DoS can issue a visa as late as 30th Sep. But then USCIS still needs to process the case. Print the card, send an email and whatnot. So post decision activity. So USCIS can still be working on a case in October that technically got visa from prior year quota.

It's really as simple logic as that.


Forgive my ignorance. I fail to understand this talk about visa wastage.

I feel last year USCIS did assign the visa numbers and later approved the cases in Oct and November. This scenario was put up by Q and I do believe that it happened. If USCIS can assign visa numbers and then give the actual visas in Oct/Nov then the same would happen this year. I do not see a possibility of visa wastage. Lets consider the rate of approvals is lower in Aug as well. The RFEs would surely be processed by Sep and visa numbers will be assigned and people will get approvals in Oct.

Once USCIS runs out with the pre-assigned numbers and the initial quota of the FY22015, they will internally retrogress the dates. Just like they did last year.

[Spectator]

"Certainly some December 2003 EB3-I applicants have reported receiving RFE for an updated I-693 - a date that is unattainable within the original EB3-I allocation. EB2-C (maybe) and EB3-C/M/ROW would also be in a position to mop up any spare visas"

Spec,

Is it not mandatory rule/law that SO should be used for EB2I first before assigning visas to EB2C(cos PD is > EB2I), EB3I, EB3C or other countries/categories. I didn't get your statement "benefit from spare visas if he believes insufficient demand from EB2-I can be generated before year end. " how can EB2I be in less demand when there are clear numbers in DD/Inventory just released. Adjudication is same for all categories/countries and IMO I693 issue is valid for all countries/categories right?

Thanks!Only while there is sufficient demand. Demand is the operative word here.

Last year, there were plenty of EB3-ROW applicants, but USCIS could not process sufficient of them to completion within the time scale. As a result, EB3-I benefited from significant FA within EB3. CO moved the EB3-I COD forward in anticipation of that event. Nobody seemed to mind about that.

If USCIS are unable to process sufficient EB2-I cases to completion (and hence the Demand that DOS "sees"), then the spillover rules allow other Countries/Categories to use the visa numbers (FA first, followed by FD).

The USCIS Inventory is not Demand. That only occurs (for AOS cases) when USCIS actually approve the case and request/use the visa number from DOS.

CO can use estimates of use (as he did in FY2013) when setting the COD for the September VB, so there is nothing illegal in making contingency plans if he feels they are warranted.

If the visa numbers are not used by EB, they will fall to FB next year. Due to the nature of the FB calculation, FB will not receive any extra visas as a result of that. Hence, in the most extreme case, it is preferable for other EB cases to use the visas. For that to happen, the COD has to be sufficiently advanced to make those Countries/Categories cases "current" in the VB. If a case is current in the VB, then it can be approved when adjudicated. That's why a said it would be a total crap shoot and hence a very unsatisfactory solution.

As I tried to make clear, I think the scenario has a very low probability, although it remains an option.

[Aurora]

Yes, EB2I,
"USCIS would have approved around 14.5 K EB 2 I cases between August and September."

"around 16k cases needs to be completed between August and September( I took 4k carried forward)"

Matt,

Answer is in your explanation. Last year they processed 14.5K in Aug and Sep. This year they have around 16K (1.5K more) for same period. Why do you think they cannot do it this year when they did last year. True that TSC is slow, who knows NSC would have consumed all visa's released by CO for July.

Regards!

[MATT2012]

Yes, EB2I,
"USCIS would have approved around 14.5 K EB 2 I cases between August and September."

"around 16k cases needs to be completed between August and September( I took 4k carried forward)"

Matt,

Answer is in your explanation. Last year they processed 14.5K in Aug and Sep. This year they have around 16K (1.5K more) for same period. Why do you think they cannot do it this year when they did last year. True that TSC is slow, who knows NSC would have consumed all visa's released by CO for July.

Regards!

The current pace of approvals will only complete between 6k and 7k. I am also hoping, they are currently running a marathon and starting next week they will run 100m. :) i know I had the answer within my answer. Was just throwing some thoughts, so would atleast learn a little more...

[cursedguy]

Somehow, I think the Immigration crisis or DACA approvals are slowing down the approvals from TSC. Another user who contacted TSC through senator was told that a TSC staff (some of them ) was at an offsite training facility for the past two weeks until 7/28. It will be a miracle for CO to complete this year without major screw ups.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Just came across this news article about a week ago. Talks about a single case but the bigger point is that there is a significant potential for fraud and abuse in EB5 category which USCIS may be overlooking.

Very interesting read. Please move it to the other forum if not appropriate.

http://fortune.com/2014/07/24/immigration-eb-5-visa-for-sale/

[qesehmk]

Just came across this news article about a week ago. Talks about a single case but the bigger point is that there is a significant potential for fraud and abuse in EB5 category which USCIS may be overlooking.

Very interesting read. Please move it to the other forum if not appropriate.

http://fortune.com/2014/07/24/immigration-eb-5-visa-for-sale/
I think this story is quite unfair to EB5 program which fundamentally is a good program and a very stringent one for that matter.

The fraud was outside the program in the way this company cheated potential investors.

The author did a poor or a malacious job of using the story about victims of a fraud into a story that makes it sound like something is wrong with EB5 program.

p.s. - But the fraud story is just a wow!! Few months back a 'Gentleman' advised me to start bringing people from India to US to give birth to "anchor babies". I totally declined and told him flat that that may be illegal. Whether illegal or not - I am not going to do that.

[Spectator]

OFLC have updated the Data with FY2014 Q3 Figures.

PERM (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/docs/py2014q3/PERM_FY14_Q3.xlsx), H-2A (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/docs/py2014q3/H-2A_FY14_Q3.xlsx), H-2B (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/docs/py2014q3/H-2B_FY14_Q3.xlsx), LCA (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/docs/py2014q3/H-1B_FY14_Q3.xlsx) and Prevailing Wage (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/docs/py2014q3/PWD_FY14_Q3.xlsx) Data is available.

I will update the PERM section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) of FACTS & DATA with the official data (it already includes the unofficial DOL LCR data for Q3) as I have time to do so.

UPDATE :- The figures have now been updated.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I think this story is quite unfair to EB5 program which fundamentally is a good program and a very stringent one for that matter.

The fraud was outside the program in the way this company cheated potential investors.

The author did a poor or a malacious job of using the story about victims of a fraud into a story that makes it sound like something is wrong with EB5 program.

p.s. - But the fraud story is just a wow!! Few months back a 'Gentleman' advised me to start bringing people from India to US to give birth to "anchor babies". I totally declined and told him flat that that may be illegal. Whether illegal or not - I am not going to do that.

Q, I agree. I don't think that investors can be blamed for investing money through EB5 program in to this sham project. But the bigger point is that this program just like any other program can be open to abuse and people can commit fraud as well. May be not investors (applicants) themselves but the people who are luring them into investing their money. I am happy that requirements in EB5 are quite stringent and not everyone can qualify for this program. I just feel that USCIS should be extra careful (and I have no evidence that they are not already) when they see applications from EB5 investors who have invested in these kinds of businesses, to prevent the investors from losing their money and to catch the real culprits milking the system. I have nothing against the EB5 program or the people who become permanent residents through that but this was something interesting that I came across so I decided to post it.

[qesehmk]

Q, I agree. I don't think that investors can be blamed for investing money through EB5 program in to this sham project. But the bigger point is that this program just like any other program can be open to abuse and people can commit fraud as well. May be not investors (applicants) themselves but the people who are luring them into investing their money. I am happy that requirements in EB5 are quite stringent and not everyone can qualify for this program. I just feel that USCIS should be extra careful (and I have no evidence that they are not already) when they see applications from EB5 investors who have invested in these kinds of businesses, to prevent the investors from losing their money and to catch the real culprits milking the system. I have nothing against the EB5 program or the people who become permanent residents through that but this was something interesting that I came across so I decided to post it.
Jonty Thanks. Indeed there are people out there who will try to benefit from immigrants in a shady manner. No doubt about that. I truly found that story very amusing.

[gc_dec_2008]

I have taken an infopass tomorrow. Exactly the same situation as you. Will touch base.

sportsfan33, What was the result of the Infopass appointment?

[aquatican]

Is it just me or is the next bulletin going to be a cliffhanger?
Dates can be anywhere from March 09 to Nov 09 or even Jan 2010 if demand from EB2I does not show up at CO doorstep.
Coming soon to a LED screen near you Aug 8 or latest Aug 11!



sportsfan33, What was the result of the Infopass appointment?

[civilengineer]

Here's a rookie question: I filed I-485 for the first time in July 2014 on July 2. Does my application show up in the pending inventory that was calculated on July 21? The jump for new pending cases seems to be only 139 or so compared to April inventory for PD before July 2008. So, there are very few new porting applications who have never filed I-485 before?

[Spectator]

Here's a rookie question: I filed I-485 for the first time in July 2014 on July 2. Does my application show up in the pending inventory that was calculated on July 21? The jump for new pending cases seems to be only 139 or so compared to April inventory for PD before July 2008. So, there are very few new porting applications who have never filed I-485 before?civilengineer,

Others may disagree, but I seriously doubt it.

I've noticed the Inventory consistently seems to be several weeks out of date compared to the stated date and actually reflects a much earlier date in reality. The net change from the April Inventory is only +47 cases and the change for dates not current is -87. The change for dates that were current in the July VB is just 134 (+330 - 196).

As well as very few additions, the Inventory does not reflect the number of approvals (seen mainly in 2007 and 2008) that occurred in the the first 21 days of July.

Of course, it is possible the were 1,584 additions and 1,450 approvals (or any other combination) within dates that were current to make up the 134 change observed, but there is no way to tell.

[aquatican]

Here is that paragraph. This news if true is really really bad. It dashes the hopes of all the upto Oct 09 PD folks. It may just be a rehash of the Ohm article which we saw earlier.
It seems that there might be some really adverse factors affecting the availability of Visa #s and CO could go with a very conservative approach and keep the dates at Jan 09.


""Consistent with DOS projections, the August Visa Bulletin indicates that the cut-off date for foreign nationals in the EB-2 category from India will move forward, by nearly five months, to January 22, 2009—continuing the rapid advancement that began earlier this month when the cut-off date leapt forward more than three years and nine months to September 1, 2008 from the previous date of November 15, 2004. The aggressive advancement of the India EB-2 cut-off date was due to the availability of unused visa numbers in the EB-1 (Employment-Based, first preference) and EB-2 worldwide categories that have “trickled down” to the EB-2 India quota. Continued forward movement in the EB-2 India category was initially envisioned for the remainder of the fiscal year, with DOS projecting that, by September 2014, the cut-off date could advance to an early summer 2009 date. It is, however, no longer anticipated that EB-2 India will advance further. Moreover, retrogression of the cut-off date in this category within the next several months is a possibility as a result of an expected increase in demand.

Someone posted this on trackitt:""

http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=fa91f6df-f7ab-480e-8758-d7bcce9c998b

It's published on July 31st. No forward movement? Is this really going to happen? I don't like it.

[Jagan01]

Hi,

What is the first acknowledgement that we get after filing the I-485. Is there some sort of receipt notice like we get for most of the applications ? Would that receipt have the name of the applicant ?

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

In general they do match. Getting a new I-94 number do not hurt the process anyway. Use the latest one.

thanks for the reply kanmani

[imdeng]

There is always a receipt notice for all I-485 filings - it is I-797C I think. It has all the relevant information including the applicant name I believe.

Hi,

What is the first acknowledgement that we get after filing the I-485. Is there some sort of receipt notice like we get for most of the applications ? Would that receipt have the name of the applicant ?

[imdeng]

I don't think there is anything to worry as yet. This seems like boilerplate lawyerspeak based on already available information - not any new information.

Someone posted this on trackitt:

http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=fa91f6df-f7ab-480e-8758-d7bcce9c998b

It's published on July 31st. No forward movement? Is this really going to happen? I don't like it.

[Jagan01]

imdeng,

Thanks for your response.


There is always a receipt notice for all I-485 filings - it is I-797C I think. It has all the relevant information including the applicant name I believe.

[justvisiting]

Hi,

What is the first acknowledgement that we get after filing the I-485. Is there some sort of receipt notice like we get for most of the applications ? Would that receipt have the name of the applicant ?

Yes you get a Receipt Notice with your Name, Receipt Number and A Number

[justvisiting]

civilengineer,

Others may disagree, but I seriously doubt it.

I've noticed the Inventory consistently seems to be several weeks out of date compared to the stated date and actually reflects a much earlier date in reality. The net change from the April Inventory is only +47 cases and the change for dates not current is -87. The change for dates that were current in the July VB is just 134 (+330 - 196).

As well as very few additions, the Inventory does not reflect the number of approvals (seen mainly in 2007 and 2008) that occurred in the the first 21 days of July.

Of course, it is possible the were 1,584 additions and 1,450 approvals (or any other combination) within dates that were current to make up the 134 change observed, but there is no way to tell.

I love it when the inventory for specific month increases even though that month/category has not been current for a while. I guess some of it is porting (although porting with a PD of 2009 seems suspect I guess it's possible). But I like to think an I-485 was found in some random pile at the SC and they're like... oh... here add one.

[sairam09]

Someone posted this on trackitt:

http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=fa91f6df-f7ab-480e-8758-d7bcce9c998b

It's published on July 31st. No forward movement? Is this really going to happen? I don't like it.

That one might be outdated. Read this one.....

http://imlaw.biz/news

July 16, 2014
Update on Priority Dates and Immigrant Visa Demand

In July 2014, Charlie Oppenheim of the U.S. Department of State’s (DOS) Visa Office (VO) spoke to AILA members regarding his impressions for the Visa Bulletin at this time (note these observations are subject to change based on actual usage or new developments). The VO expects the family-based 2A category to advance in September, possibly as far as late fall 2012. The India EB-2 priority date will retrogress in FY2015 and could occur as early as November. In the meantime, continued advancement is expected for EB-2 India in FY2014. The VO expects retrogression for EB-5 China in FY2015, possibly as early as June 2015 and no later than August 2015.

[sairam09]

What worried me in the original post was this:

"Continued forward movement in the EB-2 India category was initially envisioned for the remainder of the fiscal year, with DOS projecting that, by September 2014, the cut-off date could advance to an early summer 2009 date. It is, however, no longer anticipated that EB-2 India will advance further."

It could simply be a hash of the 2 Fragoman articles, or it could be some ominous insider info available to them.

Now for the other article, all it says is this:

"In the meantime, continued advancement is expected for EB-2 India in FY2014."

- Despite the article coming out on July 16th, it is still basing its prediction on the CO's meeting with AILA, and the Fragoman update came "after that meeting". Fragoman update date is 8th July.
- Continued forward movement happened in August, did it not? Does "continued" mean a movement in September too? I don't know.

Also, TSC has started approving visas finally, so we can expect a bunch of approvals by August 10th. This pattern of approvals from July end coupled with a carefully calculated VB date (22nd January instead of some generic 1st of some random month) makes me think of unthinkable.

There is a parallel to this in 2011. That's when EB2I dates made massive jump, but they "froze" in September before advancing again. The reason was a "sudden" EB1 demand that appeared out of "nowhere" (but we know better, don't we). I am sincerely hoping this won't happen again this year. Things are bad as it is for us 2008 folks (who don't have RFEs). I would be really angry if I was a 2009er and had responded to my RFE in July and the date doesn't move in September.

Let's hope for the best. I really hope they have a lot of numbers to push the date as far as they can.


Did you read my new link?

The VO expects the family-based 2A category to advance in September, possibly as far as late fall 2012. The India EB-2 priority date will retrogress in FY2015 and could occur as early as November. "In the meantime, continued advancement is expected for EB-2 India in FY2014".

[Jagan01]

I needed to know the timelines for getting the following approvals after filing the I485/I765/I131 applications. Your experience regarding the timelines will be helpful.
- EAD ? (I see its 3 months for NSC on the USCIS website)
- Advance Parole ? (I see its 3 months for NSC on the USCIS website)

[imdeng]

EAD/AP Combo card has a 90 day max timeline - irrespective of the service center.

I needed to know the timelines for getting the following approvals after filing the I485/I765/I131 applications. Your experience regarding the timelines will be helpful.
- EAD ? (I see its 3 months for NSC on the USCIS website)
- Advance Parole ? (I see its 3 months for NSC on the USCIS website)

[Jagan01]

EAD/AP Combo card has a 90 day max timeline - irrespective of the service center.

imdeng,

thanks for the info. Any documentation / links which confirm that the max window is 90 days ?

How soon did you get yours ?

[imdeng]

We were in a scary situation in 2013 - our EAD had only about 60 days left and we had missed to file for renewal. We filed - and whether USCIS prioritizes cases that are about to expire or not, our EADs were renewed in about 40 days. One of those cases where USCIS came through brilliantly. At that time I had looked through all sorts of documentation including some shared in this forum and it all indicated a 90 day max timeline.


imdeng,

thanks for the info. Any documentation / links which confirm that the max window is 90 days ?

How soon did you get yours ?

[RMS_V13]

I think the max window is 120 days. We had a terrible scare last year where we filed 70ish days before and we did not get it until a week or two before it expired. Check the website

[vizcard]

I think the max window is 120 days. We had a terrible scare last year where we filed 70ish days before and we did not get it until a week or two before it expired. Check the website

U can apply no more than 120 days before expiration but it's max 90 days to approve the application.

[Jagan01]

U can apply no more than 120 days before expiration but it's max 90 days to approve the application.


We were in a scary situation in 2013 - our EAD had only about 60 days left and we had missed to file for renewal. We filed - and whether USCIS prioritizes cases that are about to expire or not, our EADs were renewed in about 40 days. One of those cases where USCIS came through brilliantly. At that time I had looked through all sorts of documentation including some shared in this forum and it all indicated a 90 day max timeline.


I think the max window is 120 days. We had a terrible scare last year where we filed 70ish days before and we did not get it until a week or two before it expired. Check the website

thanks for the response. Appreciate all the help.

[rka_72]

As per trackitt, TSC has total of 3 approvals only out of 19....Any solid reason why there is so much gap?
This way NSC is going to consume all the visas and people at TSC will need to wait more may be until next year.

[imdeng]

Spec mentioned that last year too TSC started slow but ended up with 60% of approvals. So - give them time. They have gotten faster than last month - I am sure they will catch up.

As per trackitt, TSC has total of 3 approvals only out of 19....Any solid reason why there is so much gap?
This way NSC is going to consume all the visas and people at TSC will need to wait more may be until next year.