EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Pundit Arjun]

I think it's great news as reported. 3 things to note:
1) This, ofcourse, goes beyond the calculations from the gurus on this site (although kudos to YT). Based on the article, EB1 is supposed to yield SO which was not expected. So that's interesting.
2) CO appears to have a pretty solid handle on the inventory, demand and on porting to make such a strong prediction.
3) this news has not been reported by other law firms (atleast I haven't seen anything). I don't doubt the article as Fragomen is a reputed name but it's curious that no one else reported something this big.


Also, for those with 2010 PDs, there might be a possibility that dates move further in FY15 than the math would suggest to generate demand.

Kudos to Spec, Q, YT, MATT2012 - Bang on target :)

Hope we all get greened soon. The wait is agonizing...

[vishnu]

China to move 5 weeks per month is interesting - puts EB2 C closer to October 2009 by Sep 2014. Is our view that India and China will end up at similar/same dates at year end.

[vedu]

Interesting find! The news is looking more authentic now.
Vedu - Thanks for sharing this encouraging news. I started off on a google mission and found a similar "client alert" from Fragomen's website predicting PD movement last year. In retrospect, this alert proved to be interesting on two fronts - first is that the prediction came out around the same time last year (June 6th as opposed to June 3rd this year). Secondly, the prediction (Feb 2008) eventually proved to be conservative since the dates actually moved a few months beyond the prediction to June 2008 - hopefully this pattern holds true and benefits those with late summer/fall PDs :)

http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFiles/32e715a9-8b61-4b5b-8c77-980daa8b1b3e/Subscriber.snapshot?clid=5dc90fc9-8ae6-4e70-9dea-d99821dd2cc4&cid=6a13a1c1-d1d8-422f-ab63-4805a0a37e0b&ce=7Z3f5qM2QzWRq6yZI%2Bi7U685P2fN5Gh6

[Spectator]

I think it's great news as reported. 3 things to note:
1) This, ofcourse, goes beyond the calculations from the gurus on this site (although kudos to YT). Based on the article, EB1 is supposed to yield SO which was not expected. So that's interesting.
2) CO appears to have a pretty solid handle on the inventory, demand and on porting to make such a strong prediction.
3) this news has not been reported by other law firms (atleast I haven't seen anything). I don't doubt the article as Fragomen is a reputed name but it's curious that no one else reported something this big.


Also, for those with 2010 PDs, there might be a possibility that dates move further in FY15 than the math would suggest to generate demand.It indeed would be good news! I think there is now a reasonable chance of some movement in the July VB.

I think the majority of Fall Down from EB1 will actually come from EB4 numbers that Fall Up to EB1.

A note on approval numbers to date from Trackitt (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011).

EB1

EB1 has 422 approvals to date, compared to 424 for all of FY2013 and 543 for all of FY2012. Both FY2013 and FY2012 actual approvals were around 39k.

EB1-India has 361 approvals to date, compared to 338 for all of FY2013 and 413 for all of FY2012. Both FY2013 and FY2012 actual approvals were around 9.5k.

As you can see, the Trackitt rate for EB1 has been a bit variable recently - I have considered the FY2012 rate to be more representative of what is happening this year. The very high approval numbers in the first half of the year may not continue through the second half of the year, although it appears USCIS do not lack EB1 cases judging by the Inventory.

EB2

As for EB2-WW (ROW,M,P), it almost seems a question of how low they might might go. I have been thinking about reducing my assumption for a while now.

EB2-ROW has 253 approvals to date, compared to 732 for all of FY2013 and 453 for all of FY2012. In FY2013, actual approvals were around 36.5k and in FY2012, actual approvals were around 21.8k.

For completeness, EB2-India has 645 approvals to date, compared to 1,338 for all of FY2013 and 1,470 for all of FY2012. In FY2013, actual approvals were around 17.2k and in FY2012, actual approvals were around 19.7k.

EB2-China moving 5 weeks per month is a little more than I had thought - maybe it reflects how many have reverse ported to EB3.


PERM Certifications

To put the increase into perspective, the 2 months worth of PERM Certifications for April/May 2014 represent slightly more than 50% of the total for the 6 months October 2013 to March 2014 (+158%).

March 2014 itself also represented a high Certification month. April/May 2014 Certifications represent 64% of the 6 months September 2013 to February 2014 (+192%).

[vedu]

I agree. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!!!
I truly wish it does even at the cost of potential spillover next year. If the EB2I date moves to late 2009 this year itself, we will all have to remember that this would in essence be a *2 years worth* of movement.

[CleanSock]

sportsfan33,
Could you explain more on the 2009 being benign for EB2I? I went through last four I485 inventories and the latest one shows EB2I demand around 14,000 as compared to 10,000 in 2008. I assume 2008 is lower in the latest inventory because many of the applications have been processed as the dates in that year were current twice. But going back 3 inventories, story is the same. 2008 demand data is less than 2009. Then how come it is benign? I guess I am missing something here.

Thanks!
CleanSock


If the past experience is any indicator, CO's comments generally transpire in reality. At this point, there are about 4 months remaining in the FY and it is not unrealistic to expect that the CO can project the entire demand in pipeline for all categories. He can definitely make predictions now.

I would say don't lose hope. And even if not this year, next year you are surely in. The more the movement this year, the more the demand cleanup and the closer you are. 2009 is also the most benign year for EB2I demand and it should be over relatively quickly.

[vizcard]

sportsfan33,
Could you explain more on the 2009 being benign for EB2I? I went through last four I485 inventories and the latest one shows EB2I demand around 14,000 as compared to 10,000 in 2008. I assume 2008 is lower in the latest inventory because many of the applications have been processed as the dates in that year were current twice. But going back 3 inventories, story is the same. 2008 demand data is less than 2009. Then how come it is benign? I guess I am missing something here.

Thanks!
CleanSock

im going to take a shot at answering this. Sportsfan - correct me if I'm wrong.

the issue is not on the demand side but on the supply side. I think the PERM slowdown will rear its ugly head next fiscal year resulting in greater than usual demand in EB2ROW. ofcourse its way too early to say how things will shake out. Its still just Q3 2014.

[iatiam]

More than half the folks in 2008 are already greened. They have been getting GCs since 2012. I don't know anyone from 2009 who has gotten a GC yet.

There is always a balance of force. For less demand in 2009, there will be release of pend up demand. So while the demand side is low, the supply side might also be low thus balancing it. At least that's what I wish for (because my PD is Aug 2009)

[Spectator]

sportsfan33,
Could you explain more on the 2009 being benign for EB2I? I went through last four I485 inventories and the latest one shows EB2I demand around 14,000 as compared to 10,000 in 2008. I assume 2008 is lower in the latest inventory because many of the applications have been processed as the dates in that year were current twice. But going back 3 inventories, story is the same. 2008 demand data is less than 2009. Then how come it is benign? I guess I am missing something here.

Thanks!
CleanSockCleanSock,

In terms of Demand judged by PERM Certifications, PD2009 is the lightest.

2007 & 2008 had around 23k certifications for India.
2009 had under 17k certifications.
2010 had over 22k certifications and that has risen to over 35k certifications for 2012.

You can look at the figures in FACTS & DATA here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations) and broken down by month here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-China-amp-India).

Even allowing for distortions due to new PERM for porting, it is clear the overall demand has increased substantially since around April/May 2010.

Such was the pace of PD2008 approvals during the period they were first current, I don't think the Inventory ever properly captured the true numbers.

[helooo]

Hi Gurus,
How long does it take to get EAD as first time filer?Pls move this to appropriate thread.
Thanks

[vizcard]

Hi Gurus,
How long does it take to get EAD as first time filer?Pls move this to appropriate thread.
Thanks

I'll give u a crappy range... i got mine in 3 weeks back in 2012. When I renewed in 2013, it took longer (6 weeks or so IIRC). A friend of mine's took almost 3 months for his renewal. So I don't know if the driver of time is first time vs renewal or workload at any given point in time or something else.

[CleanSock]

Thank You Spec, Vizcard and Sportsfan33. This explains it all :)
My PD is in 2011 and I am nowhere close to getting a GC. I just hope dates move quickly to May 2010 so that they are pushed forward to generate demand and I at least get EAD and AP.


CleanSock,

In terms of Demand judged by PERM Certifications, PD2009 is the lightest.

2007 & 2008 had around 23k certifications for India.
2009 had under 17k certifications.
2010 had over 22k certifications and that has risen to over 35k certifications for 2012.

You can look at the figures in FACTS & DATA here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations) and broken down by month here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-China-amp-India).

Even allowing for distortions due to new PERM for porting, it is clear the overall demand has increased substantially since around April/May 2010.

Such was the pace of PD2008 approvals during the period they were first current, I don't think the Inventory ever properly captured the true numbers.

[idiotic]

Assuming dates move to early summer of 2009(conservative estimate from Fragomen holds good), is there a consensus among the group about how next inventory buildup might look like and what will be the timing of such buildup (USCIS FY 2015 Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4)

[imdeng]

Even if we move to middle of 2009, considering that SO is expected to be low next year, CO might have enough inventory left to finish off FY2015. So in that case next inventory buildup can be as late as early summer 2016. However, if things align well and there isn't enough inventory left to finish FY2015, then we can see inventory buildup about this time next year. All depends on how next few months go and how much of actual SO is realized.

Assuming dates move to early summer of 2009(conservative estimate from Fragomen holds good), is there a consensus among the group about how next inventory buildup might look like and what will be the timing of such buildup (USCIS FY 2015 Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4)

[vishnu]

CO wouldn't have a view already on spillover for FY 2015...thats why date movements only happen in fiscal Q4.

If we move to summer 09, and we have around 10k+ EB2 till May 2010, that may prompt him to build inventory from as early as Q1 fiscal 2015...

what he does know is that average EB2 india granted each year is around 18k... he wouldnt want to take the risk of wasting numbers, so may at least what to get to 20k inventory prior to next spillovre season

[vizcard]

CO wouldn't have a view already on spillover for FY 2015...thats why date movements only happen in fiscal Q4.

If we move to summer 09, and we have around 10k+ EB2 till May 2010, that may prompt him to build inventory from as early as Q1 fiscal 2015...

what he does know is that average EB2 india granted each year is around 18k... he wouldnt want to take the risk of wasting numbers, so may at least what to get to 20k inventory prior to next spillovre season

First, I believe CO looks at demand and not inventory.
Second, even if we do move to June 2009, not everyone in that period will get greened (visas may run out, RFE responses won't get processed in time, etc, etc.). Last year when the dates moved to June 2008, I don't believe everyone in that period was approved and those left over are a decent number.
Third, depending on how EB3I ends up this year, you can expect a lot of porting.

[MATT2012]

First, I believe CO looks at demand and not inventory.
Second, even if we do move to June 2009, not everyone in that period will get greened (visas may run out, RFE responses won't get processed in time, etc, etc.). Last year when the dates moved to June 2008, I don't believe everyone in that period was approved and those left over are a decent number.
Third, depending on how EB3I ends up this year, you can expect a lot of porting.

Adding to what Viz pointed out, there will be many new I485 cases.

[vedu]

So if we assume that CO won't move the dates forward so early to generate the new demand, would it be fair to assume that he won't move the dates backwards either starting October/November in the hope of generating a limited new demand from the porters?
Adding to what Viz pointed out, there will be many new I485 cases.

[imdeng]

Once there are enough porters/documentarily-qualified folks to exceed the normal quarterly quota for the country, CO has to retrogress until Q4. So I doubt that he will be able to keep the Summer-2009 date for much longer after Oct. Perhaps for a month or two like this FY to mop up some laggards - but by Dec-Jan, dates are going back to 2004 type date to stop porting demand.


So if we assume that CO won't move the dates forward so early to generate the new demand, would it be fair to assume that he won't move the dates backwards either starting October/November in the hope of generating a limited new demand from the porters?

[gcwait]

This Fragomen link says dates will move in JULY:

http://www.fragomen.com//SnapshotFiles/b61b629d-7c39-41f4-b647-d01613745660/Subscriber.snapshot?clid=477c113e-0038-4340-9119-014b889a79c5&cid=b2624453-0936-4f9d-a715-4d1657e7bf61&ce=CROKUb9shJM1XNXgMt2V7zv0pL9R8de1N%2fvJvROnpvg%3 d

[vedu]

That's a good news. Last year the dates started moving in August. So, this year we will have one extra month to consume the spill over.
This Fragomen link says date will move in JULY:

http://www.fragomen.com//SnapshotFiles/b61b629d-7c39-41f4-b647-d01613745660/Subscriber.snapshot?clid=477c113e-0038-4340-9119-014b889a79c5&cid=b2624453-0936-4f9d-a715-4d1657e7bf61&ce=CROKUb9shJM1XNXgMt2V7zv0pL9R8de1N%2fvJvROnpvg%3 d

[vizcard]

This Fragomen link says date will move in JULY:

http://www.fragomen.com//SnapshotFiles/b61b629d-7c39-41f4-b647-d01613745660/Subscriber.snapshot?clid=477c113e-0038-4340-9119-014b889a79c5&cid=b2624453-0936-4f9d-a715-4d1657e7bf61&ce=CROKUb9shJM1XNXgMt2V7zv0pL9R8de1N%2fvJvROnpvg%3 d

Excellent first post ! Welcome to the forum.

A July move would mean that CO will move dates in baby steps perhaps to June 2008 then Dec 2008 (Aug) and then June 2009 (Sep). That would give 2008 folks who have received RFEs around 60 days to respond before they become current and ofcourse 90 days till the end of the year.

[vedu]

Vizcard,

Do you think there is any chance of dates moving father than June 2009? Last year, Fragomen predicted February 2008 for EB2I and January 2009 for EB3 ROW. Ultimately, the dates ended up in June 2008 for EB2I and July 2010 for EB3 ROW.
Excellent first post ! Welcome to the forum.

A July move would mean that CO will move dates in baby steps perhaps to June 2008 then Dec 2008 (Aug) and then June 2009 (Sep). That would give 2008 folks who have received RFEs around 60 days to respond before they become current and ofcourse 90 days till the end of the year.

[vizcard]

Vizcard,

Do you think there is any chance of dates moving father than June 2009? Last year, Fragomen predicted February 2008 for EB2I and January 2009 for EB3 ROW. Ultimately, the dates ended up in June 2008 for EB2I and July 2010 for EB3 ROW.

Fragomen is reporting what CO says. Only CO knows the data. I'm surprised that it's even reaching the summer. But if we get June 2009, then it's net 1 yr movement which is excellent.

Do I think it'll go past June 2009? No. But I didn't think it'd reach June 2009 so what do I know :)

[zenmaster]

I agree.
I feel the same. I think they should peg the dates at high watermark from July itself.


The latest RFE date reported on trackitt is May 20th, 2009.

In previous years, a "conservative" estimate would be reported and the actual date movement would be past that. However, I believe this year's date movement is as aggressively reported as possible. Part of the reason should be that CO has to release an advisory for the adjudicating officers, so the officers can send RFEs as and when they see fit. There is simply no room to make a surprise push in September if the officers do not get enough time to review and send RFEs.

I believe the latest reported RFE date sets the high watermark for the date advancement this year. Let's keep watching.

[triplet]

Vizcard,

Do you think there is any chance of dates moving father than June 2009? Last year, Fragomen predicted February 2008 for EB2I and January 2009 for EB3 ROW. Ultimately, the dates ended up in June 2008 for EB2I and July 2010 for EB3 ROW.

End of 2008 was looking doubtful two weeks ago, now we're talking June 2009 and beyond, things change pretty quickly in the immigration process. I'm a little baffled by a move into July (hope it happens for your sake), but if they are so confident about the numbers why not make a move to Dec 2008 in July and June 2009 in August. I guess we'll find out soon enough, RFE for May 2009 points to a fairytale ending - but we know this process is anything but that!

[imdeng]

I agree. RFEs are a natural constraint this year - they can't move dates and approve loads of people in the last month - so they have to signal their hand well in time.

There was some discussion before on whether an RFE actually blocks a visa number for the RFE recipient. Would be pretty nice if true.

Even if we go to May 2009 this year, we are only holding serve and barely maintaining a PD+5Year benchmark. Next year is expected to be brutal - we might just about clear 2009 which is the lowest density portion. Demand densities kick up in 2010+ PDs - so we are looking at some awful years after this current one. So enjoy this ride while it lasts.


The latest RFE date reported on trackitt is May 20th, 2009.
...
I believe the latest reported RFE date sets the high watermark for the date advancement this year. Let's keep watching.

[suninphx]

I agree. RFEs are a natural constraint this year - they can't move dates and approve loads of people in the last month - so they have to signal their hand well in time.

There was some discussion before on whether an RFE actually blocks a visa number for the RFE recipient. Would be pretty nice if true.

Even if we go to May 2009 this year, we are only holding serve and barely maintaining a PD+5Year benchmark. Next year is expected to be brutal - we might just about clear 2009 which is the lowest density portion. Demand densities kick up in 2010+ PDs - so we are looking at some awful years after this current one. So enjoy this ride while it lasts.

I would not give up hope on next year so early. Hoping that 'divine arrangement' (which has helped EB2I to maintain PD+5-6 years to GC equation :) ) continues. :)
On a serious note, I would like to see where it ends this FY before predicting anything for next year.

[sdesh005]

1)
2) Seen something interesting on trackitt where a user had posted what sounded as a credible source. According to that post, CO mentioned that up to 15000 EB2I GCs are expected to be given out in the spillover season and that the date would move into 2009 by the August bulletin itself. Strong stuff indeed. Trackitt however has been down for the past several hours since then.

Here's a part of what it says on Trackitt, but I really am not sure what to make of it. An exact date prediction of 9/1/2008 this month is a bit bold, but we'll see!


Visa Chief Charles Oppenheim recently advised Mr. ____ that the July India EB-2 cut-off date will be September 1, 2008, which means significant movement is expected. Mr. Oppenheim plans to then advance the date to 2009 for August, and another move in September. The extent of the movements will depend on his estimates of "otherwise unused" EB-1 and EB-2 numbers when the cut-off dates for those months are determined.

Mr. Oppenheim predicts that by the end of September the movements in the next few months with the India EB-2 cut-off date will allow over 15,000 applicants to adjust.

Mr. Oppenheim further predicts that the September India EB-2 cut-off date will likely to hold for October, but can be expected to retrogress as early as November. That retrogression will become necessary as soon as the processing of the new (July-Sept.) filings results in a significant increase in adjustment requests for applicants with very early priority dates.

According to notes in the Visa Bulletin, priority dates for the Family F2A category have retrogressed as a result of a dramatic increase in demand earlier this fiscal year. Further retrogression cannot be ruled out should demand by applicants with very early priority dates continue to increase.

Retrogression in the employment-based categories is a result of unexpected and dramatic increase in demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service Offices during the past several months. "Notices were included in several Visa Bulletins during the past year alerting readers to the possibility of such retrogressions. While corrective action in some categories has become necessary earlier than was anticipated based on the information available earlier, it is hoped that readers are not caught off guard by these retrogressions."

Note that persons in the US whose priority dates will become current in June cannot file an application for adjustment of status until June 1, except for Diversity Visa applicants, who can file a month in advance of their priority date becoming current. We expect that once an application is filed, in order to use all the available visa numbers, USCIS will aggressively
move to schedule applicants for biometrics and adjudicate these cases quickly. Applicants should ensure that their attorneys push USCIS to move on their cases before any retrogression can occur.

We will keep you posted as we receive more information on future predictions of visa availability. More information can be found at the Visa Bulletin website.

[vedu]

If everything goes according to plan this year, then next year around this time there will be approximately 10,000 pending EB2I I-485 inventory. In June 2011, there was close to 22,000 EB2I pending inventory. That year, the dates started moving in July and CO kept moving dates until April 2012 in order to generate the future demand. Finally when the dates stopped moving, they were at May 1, 2010. We may be in a similar situation in June of next year.
I would not give up hope on next year so early. Hoping that 'divine arrangement' (which has helped EB2I to maintain PD+5-6 years to GC equation :) ) continues. :)
On a serious note, I would like to see where it ends this FY before predicting anything for next year.

[rs3533]

Its out !


9/1/2008 it is.....


http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-july-2014.html

[eb2mar2008]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-july-2014.html

July Bulletin -- EB2 India - 01 Sept 2008.

[tatikonda]

July VB is out - EB2-I September 2008.

http://www.travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-july-2014.html

[Spectator]

If everything goes according to plan this year, then next year around this time there will be approximately 10,000 pending EB2I I-485 inventory. In June 2011, there was close to 22,000 EB2I pending inventory. That year, the dates started moving in July and CO kept moving dates until April 2012 in order to generate the future demand. Finally when the dates stopped moving, they were at May 1, 2010. We may be in a similar situation in June of next year.Allowing for a 5% denial rate, based on the April Inventory, there are about 12k EB2-I cases beyond a Cut Off Date of 01JUN09.

Movement to 01JUN09 in FY2014 would cover around 18k EB2-I cases. If 15k further visas are available in Q4, then 3k would fall into FY2015. It might be possible to approve those in October 2014, using the EB2-I initial allocation for FY2015.

Also, the Inventory will not show porting cases as EB2, so the figure is probably higher than that. Cases since November 2013 with a PD of pre 01SEP08 can now be processed from July 2014, when the EB2 PD becomes current.

EB2-I would need substantial SO in FY2015 to exhaust the current Inventory and allow dates to move beyond 01MAY10. I'm not convinced that will happen.

Unless there are substantial FB visas available for FY2015, it is likely the EB2-I COD will have to retrogress in the November 2014 VB and stay retrogressed until Q4, when the amount of SO available for the FY can be determined.

[smuggymba]

Spec - My PD is 30th March 2010. How many EB2 cases are between June 2009 and March 2010?

[CleanSock]

Spec, Q, Vizcard, sportsfan33, imdeng, kanmani and others

The user (u/nagabhyrava) who posted the email communication on trackitt said the following in two different posts. I want to understand how much truth there is to it?

Post 1 :

India EB2 will not surpass China EB2, otherwise China EB2 will be able to share some spillovers.

Come back in September to find out whether what I said has turned out to be true.

Sorry I can't share the reason or rationale.

But India EB2 will be just a little bit behind China EB2, so that all "unused visa numbers" will go only to India EB2. In the mean time, China EB2 has nothing to complain because they will stay ahead of India EB2.


Post 2:

The logic is very simple.

Backlog in India EB2 has to cleared, otherwise it'll snowball into an ugly number that will embarrass somebody in Washington D.C.

So the spillover has to go to India EB2.

In order to achieve that India EB2 has to stay behind China EB2 to ensure that no spillover is shared by China EB2, or to minimize the spillover being shared by China EB2.

So the key of the key in predicting your opportunity is to closely monitor the China EB2 cut-off dates and fully understand the data behind these dates.

Thanks!

[idiotic]

Unless there are substantial FB visas available for FY2015, it is likely the EB2-I COD will have to retrogress in the November 2014 VB and stay retrogressed until Q4, when the amount of SO available for the FY can be determined.

If dates are moved in Q4 2015 after the SO can be determined, wont we run the risk of wasting visa numbers as new I485s cannot be processed to completion in Q4 itself.
This year it turned out the actual allocation was at least 5K more than what it is turning out to be.. I understand next year will be tough with no EB5 and more EB2ROW..

In any case, will it be better for CO to sit on more inventory(may move the dates till end of 2010 and get more inventory sometime next year)?

[gcpursuit]

Spec,Q and Other gurus,

How far do you think the cut off dates will go for EB2I this year? I see June 1,2009 mentioned. Any chances for going beyond that?

P.S : I am being shamelessly selfish here. I have a June 29, 2009 PD. I don't care about when I would get greened but just want an opportunity to file for I-485. That's all.

[triplet]

Bulletin is out, India hits Sep 08!! Good luck to all who are current!
/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-july-2014.html

[triplet]

http://www.travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-july-2014.html

[TeddyKoochu]

Folks the official bulletin is out. EB2-I is back at 01-Sep-08.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-july-2014.html

[Spectator]

Spec - My PD is 30th March 2010. How many EB2 cases are between June 2009 and March 2010?Again, allowing 5% denial, the current Inventory shows around 10.5k cases between the COD of 01APR10 you would require and a COD of 01JUN09.

[smuggymba]

Again, allowing 5% denial, the current Inventory shows around 10.5k cases between the COD of 01APR10 you would require and a COD of 01JUN09.

So I need 10.5K + Porting number i.e. close to 14K-15K spillover to get greened. Are we expecting around 10K SO only next year?

[Spectator]

If dates are moved in Q4 2015 after the SO can be determined, wont we run the risk of wasting visa numbers as new I485s cannot be processed to completion in Q4 itself.
This year it turned out the actual allocation was at least 5K more than what it is turning out to be.. I understand next year will be tough with no EB5 and more EB2ROW..

In any case, will it be better for CO to sit on more inventory(may move the dates till end of 2010 and get more inventory sometime next year)?If CO moves the dates beyond 01MAY10, then he needs to have sufficient visa numbers available to approve all the existing cases that have been preadjudicated who will become Current. That means the Inventory has to be nearly exhausted before he can do so. Personally, I don't think that point will be reached in FY2015. The amount of SO available in FY2015 will only cover a proportion of the existing preadjudicated cases.

EB2-C will move beyond 01MAY10 in FY2015, since its almost certain they will have far fewer than 2.8k cases left in the Inventory going into FY2015. That's going to feel quite painful to Indian applicants.

[vizcard]

EB2-C will move beyond 01MAY10 in FY2015, since its almost certain they will have far fewer than 2.8k cases left in the Inventory going into FY2015. That's going to feel quite painful to Indian applicants.

Glass half full view is that we might some SO from EB2 C too :) .......... ofcourse it'll be negligible but to the person who gets approved because of it, he/she will be thankful.

[qesehmk]

So here are 3 key takeaways from this Visa Bulletin:
1. EB2I moved to where it should've been all year along (but was technically retrogressed because of portings). This movement is only partial and there should be further movement in next bulletin.
2. EB2 ROW stays current - that's good for EB2IC.
3. EB3 ROW doesn't retrogress further - which means EB3ROW has stabilized and now the forward movements will resume with new year or may be even earlier.

[qesehmk]

Guys please respect moderator's time and effort and post in appropriate threads.

All of us understand the need to get visibility to your questions. But you must understand that moderators are doing a "Pro Bono" work here in maintaining the forum and answering questions. So I second Spec's post and request you to please post in appropriate threads only.

[vizcard]

Spec, Q, Vizcard, sportsfan33, imdeng, kanmani and others

The user (u/nagabhyrava) who posted the email communication on trackitt said the following in two different posts. I want to understand how much truth there is to it?

Post 1 :

India EB2 will not surpass China EB2, otherwise China EB2 will be able to share some spillovers.

Come back in September to find out whether what I said has turned out to be true.

Sorry I can't share the reason or rationale.

But India EB2 will be just a little bit behind China EB2, so that all "unused visa numbers" will go only to India EB2. In the mean time, China EB2 has nothing to complain because they will stay ahead of India EB2.


Post 2:

The logic is very simple.

Backlog in India EB2 has to cleared, otherwise it'll snowball into an ugly number that will embarrass somebody in Washington D.C.

So the spillover has to go to India EB2.

In order to achieve that India EB2 has to stay behind China EB2 to ensure that no spillover is shared by China EB2, or to minimize the spillover being shared by China EB2.

So the key of the key in predicting your opportunity is to closely monitor the China EB2 cut-off dates and fully understand the data behind these dates.

Thanks!


This is true. Buts its not a conspiracy. Eb2C just doesn't have the demand and hence has moved way ahead and EB2I has benefited as a result

[CleanSock]

But what's stopping CO from moving EB2C further maybe like into 2011 or 12?


This is true. Buts its not a conspiracy. Eb2C just doesn't have the demand and hence has moved way ahead and EB2I has benefited as a result

[Spectator]

But what's stopping CO from moving EB2C further maybe like into 2011 or 12?Same reason he can't just arbitrarily move EB2-I Cut Off Dates.

China had around 5k cases pending (and preadjudicated) up to a Cut Off Date of 01MAY10 at the beginning of the FY. The annual limit is about 3k.

He doesn't currently have enough visas available to approve those cases if he moved the dates up to, or beyond, 01MAY10.

There is no separate mechanism to de-link setting Cut Off Dates for approval and submission purposes.

I think CO should be able to move EB2-C beyond 01MAY10 by around the end of Q2 FY2015.

[CleanSock]

Got it. Thanks! :)

[savinir]

Again, allowing 5% denial, the current Inventory shows around 10.5k cases between the COD of 01APR10 you would require and a COD of 01JUN09.


Spec,

My PD is 15 Sep 2009. Any chance of getting GC this year or atleast in next year.


thank you for your time and effort.

[Raj0687]

I still don't get how the EB2I date would move upto jun/09 ? How would EB2I get 15K?

I know that there are only 10K FB spill over, very few from EB1, not many from EB2ROW.
Can some please through some light.

[ksur23]

Found this on Fragomen about August and September. http://www.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USBulletins&news=2704

"The State Department projects that the cut-off date could move to February 2009 in August and to an early summer 2009 date in September of this year."

[vedu]

That's great news. Just this morning I was doing some rough calculations and thought that the dates might move to February 1st 2009 in August and then to July 1st 2009 in September. I looked at the pending I-485 inventory and seems like by this logic, approximately 6,000 visas will be given to EB2I each month (July, August, September) for a total of 18,000 for the rest of the year. We will see how this pans out!
Found this on Fragomen about August and September. http://www.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USBulletins&news=2704

"The State Department projects that the cut-off date could move to February 2009 in August and to an early summer 2009 date in September of this year."

[imdeng]

I have moved (and replied to) a couple of post about RFEs to that thread. That thread has good amount of traffic right now - so don't worry about your post not getting attention there.

PS> I don't mind folks with urgent needs posting in the calculations thread occasionally; perhaps selfishly as I have done so myself in the past. For RFEs though - since we have a pretty active thread available, I will be moving RFE related posts there.

Guys please respect moderator's time and effort and post in appropriate threads.

[imdeng]

Welcome to the forum Raj. EB2ROW is the one expected to provide the bulk of SO this year. There has been a whole lot of discussion around why and how. PERM slowdown, has been C all year, low EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting because of EB3ROW movement etc. This will turn around next year though - but lets not worry about that now.

I still don't get how the EB2I date would move upto jun/09 ? How would EB2I get 15K?

I know that there are only 10K FB spill over, very few from EB1, not many from EB2ROW.
Can some please through some light.

[imdeng]

Am not Spec - but here are my $0.02 - This year is very tough but next year looks pretty good for you (and by corollary, for me, an Aug-2009 PD). Hang in there though - you are right in that very thin portion of demand density - so it wouldn't take very many visa numbers for things to move from June-09 to Sept-09. However, considering that even June-09 is a stretch, the odds are low for Sept-09 this year.

Spec,

My PD is 15 Sep 2009. Any chance of getting GC this year or atleast in next year.


thank you for your time and effort.

[imdeng]

I agree. There is no drama with EB2C - we know the exact demand and the exact supply - its just following its track. No one of consciously trying to keep EB2I just behind EB2C - its just how numbers have shaped up. It will continue to be so in coming years as well.

This is true. Buts its not a conspiracy. Eb2C just doesn't have the demand and hence has moved way ahead and EB2I has benefited as a result

[imdeng]

Q - the bulletin is more aggressive than just matching where we should have been. We finished FY2013 at 15JUN08 - so we are extending PD by 2.5 months off the bat - in July itself. Last year PDs did not move until the Aug bulletin.

I don't think there was any danger of EB2ROW getting off from being Current - was there? Your point on EB3ROW is valid and important. Its movement forward will be key to see if we can finally reach the scenario of horizontal spillovers to EB3I in near future.

So here are 3 key takeaways from this Visa Bulletin:
1. EB2I moved to where it should've been all year along (but was technically retrogressed because of portings). This movement is only partial and there should be further movement in next bulletin.
2. EB2 ROW stays current - that's good for EB2IC.
3. EB3 ROW doesn't retrogress further - which means EB3ROW has stabilized and now the forward movements will resume with new year or may be even earlier.

[imdeng]

Not for many many years. They are moving 5 weeks every month - and they are 5 years behind the current date - so at that rate they will take several decades to become current and provide SO to EB2I. They are suffering the side effects of the massive EB2I backlog.

Glass half full view is that we might some SO from EB2 C too :) .......... ofcourse it'll be negligible but to the person who gets approved because of it, he/she will be thankful.

[suninphx]

-
Now the bad:
- The big spillover from EB2-ROW comes at a price, which is that next year, they will provide nothing for all practical purposes.


Data point/analysis please?

[qesehmk]

imdeng thanks. Lets talk about all 3 one by one.
1. EB2I date is artificially retrogressed on a technicality of 7% quota (approx equal to 2800). The porting is more than that and so DOS moves dates to 2004. I think the dates should've been current into Jun 2008 all along. That is where the wall of demand is for EB2I. All other prior demand is trickling in from various prior months from EB3I.
2. EB2ROW indeed is not a surprise and that is the point. You don't want a bad surprise.
3. EB3ROW staying at Apr 2011 is good and forward movement will start soon but now I am a bit less bullish on EB3ROW being current next year. We will see!

Q - the bulletin is more aggressive than just matching where we should have been. We finished FY2013 at 15JUN08 - so we are extending PD by 2.5 months off the bat - in July itself. Last year PDs did not move until the Aug bulletin.

I don't think there was any danger of EB2ROW getting off from being Current - was there? Your point on EB3ROW is valid and important. Its movement forward will be key to see if we can finally reach the scenario of horizontal spillovers to EB3I in near future.

[vyruss]

Dates being current for mid-2009 contradicts many calculations (based on best available data of course). My theory is that any 2009 dates made current will only get RFEs this September. You respond to the RFEs with fresh medicals which are valid through October 2015. So any 2009 dates that are current will be greened in Summer 2015 and not in September/October 2014. This approach also gives CO with a latest set of inventory to deal with next year. This approach is feasible only for 2009 when the PERM filings are low. Even if the 2009 dates are not made current in September 2014, they will to be made current and greened next year; so why not issue the RFE now- the medicals that follow will be valid for one year. Thoughts??

[Spectator]

-
Now the bad:
- The big spillover from EB2-ROW comes at a price, which is that next year, they will provide nothing for all practical purposes.


Data point/analysis please?sun,

In FY2011, EB2-WW (ROW, M, P) used 34,550 visas.

In FY2012, EB2-WW used 25,009 visas. EB2-WW was artificially retrogressed in Q4 and approvals that should have taken place in FY2012 were pushed to FY2013.

In FY2013, EB2-WW used 42,641 visas. The increase can be attributed to those delayed from FY2012 due to retrogression.

The average EB2-WW approvals for FY2012/FY2013 was 33,825 and for the period FY2011-FY2013 it was 34,067.

When only 140,000 EB visas are available, the initial allocation for EB2-WW is 34,434.

FY2014 approvals for EB2-WW have been exceptionally low, probably due to PERM processing times increasing and slow I-140 processing. Likely I-485 approvals have come from a time when certification numbers were very low.

The PERM processing times have started to reduce recently and the volume of PERM certifications has increased hugely (Q2 & Q3 FY2014 have seen double the number of certifications compared to each of the 4 preceding quarters).

There does not seem to be a reduction in the underlying number of EB-WW PERM cases, so it likely the EB2-WW I-485 approvals will rise sharply in FY2015. The lower the number of approvals in FY2014, the higher the approval numbers in FY2015 are likely to be.

EB3-ROW date movement might have a small effect eventually, but that will be for new PERM and probably only a major factor if EB3-ROW become Current.

Q has summarised it very eloquently in the next post.

[qesehmk]

In simple words - the fundamental demand doesn't vary far too much from one year to next. However due to idosyncracies of processing various states of GC (Labor, 140 & 485) the SOFAD waxes and wanes from one year to the next.


sun,

In FY2011, EB2-WW (ROW, M, P) used 34,550 visas.

In FY2012, EB2-WW used 25,009 visas. EB2-WW was artificially retrogressed in Q4 and approvals that should have taken place in FY2012 were pushed to FY2013.

In FY2013, EB2-WW used 42,641 visas. The increase can be attributed to those delayed from FY2012 due to retrogression.

The average EB2-WW approvals for FY2012/FY2013 was 33,825 and for the period FY2011-FY2013 it was 34,067.

When only 140,000 EB visas are available, the initial allocation for EB2-WW is 34,434.

FY2014 approvals for EB2-WW have been exceptionally low, probably due to PERM processing times increasing and slow I-140 processing. Likely I-485 approvals have come from a time when certification numbers were very low.

The PERM processing times have started to reduce recently and the volume of PERM certifications has increased hugely (Q2 & Q3 FY2014 have seen double the number of certifications compared to each of the 4 preceding quarters).

There does not seem to be a reduction in the underlying number of EB-WW PERM cases, so it likely the EB2-WW I-485 approvals will rise sharply in FY2015. The lower the number of approvals in FY2014, the higher the approval numbers in FY2015 are likely to be.

EB3-ROW date movement might have a small effect eventually, but that will be for new PERM and probably only a major factor if EB3-ROW become Current.

[vyruss]

Some folks have got their RFE. Most likely they will respond in the month of June with 693 dated June 2014. This should expire June 2015. So unless they get current June 1, the 693 expires.

The response doesn't reset the clock. The date of the medical exam resets the clock. So if you get your 693 done today but send the final response in by 6/13, the clock starts on 6/11 and not 6/13. Atleast that's my understanding of the rule.

vizcard thanks for that clarity. This is all under the assumption that the RFEs are for medicals and not for something else. Talked to a friend who received a notice for FP appointment for his son. His PD is May 2009. I think they need a fresh set of FP for him.

Part of the pessimism in my reasoning stems from the disbelief in the date movement without any numbers backing it. Where are the numbers for this coming from? Every category seems to be more or less used with spillovers limited to less than 10,000. For the dates to move to mid-2009, and actually greened, there is a need for at least 20,000 numbers for regular cases and some more for CP cases. Does anyone have a reasonable grasp on where the excess spillover is coming from?

[bluelabel]

Q - the bulletin is more aggressive than just matching where we should have been. We finished FY2013 at 15JUN08 - so we are extending PD by 2.5 months off the bat - in July itself. Last year PDs did not move until the Aug bulletin.

I don't think there was any danger of EB2ROW getting off from being Current - was there? Your point on EB3ROW is valid and important. Its movement forward will be key to see if we can finally reach the scenario of horizontal spillovers to EB3I in near future.

Is there a chance in FY 2015, CO moves dates in advance to 1st May 2010 and build additional inventory with portings/new applications instead of waiting till July 2015?

[vyruss]

Thanks for that Spec/Sportsfan. With the date movement there will be fresh wave of porting added to the mix. Do porters file a fresh 485 when they interfile? If they do, the 485 processing time of 4 months essentially kills their chance of getting greened in FY 2014 as dates are expected to retrogress in November anyway. Is this correct?

[imdeng]

Welcome to the forum bluelabel. My opinion is that there is enough inventory and additional demand (porting, folks who missed filing during last inventory gathering) left in EB2I to finish FY2015 without trying to get new inventory. New inventory will likely not be necessary until FY2016.

Is there a chance in FY 2015, CO moves dates in advance to 1st May 2010 and build additional inventory with portings/new applications instead of waiting till July 2015?

[mkmcmmn]

Hi vyruss,
If an applicant had already filed a I-485 based on an EB3 I140, they do NOT need to file another I-485 after their EB2 I140 is approved. They can just send a "interfiling request" to USCIS to link the original I485 to the newly approved EB2 I140. This process is relatively fast, it does not take 4 months.... may be just a month or so.


Thanks for that Spec. With the date movement there will be fresh wave of porting added to the mix. Do porters file a fresh 485 when they interfile? If they do, the 485 processing time of 4 months essentially kills their chance of getting greened in FY 2014 as dates are expected to retrogress in November anyway. Is this correct?

[imdeng]

We shouldn't ascribe too much strategic decision making to what CO/USCIS do. IMO CO/USCIS look only as far as their eyes (and available data) see - which in most cases does not extend beyond the end of the FY. The situation is too fluid and dynamic for long term planning - every FY is different with different sets of constraints - just look at the EB2-WW numbers posted by Spec couple posts down.


Dates being current for mid-2009 contradicts many calculations (based on best available data of course). My theory is that any 2009 dates made current will only get RFEs this September. You respond to the RFEs with fresh medicals which are valid through October 2015. So any 2009 dates that are current will be greened in Summer 2015 and not in September/October 2014. This approach also gives CO with a latest set of inventory to deal with next year. This approach is feasible only for 2009 when the PERM filings are low. Even if the 2009 dates are not made current in September 2014, they will to be made current and greened next year; so why not issue the RFE now- the medicals that follow will be valid for one year. Thoughts??

[Spectator]

Thanks for that Spec. With the date movement there will be fresh wave of porting added to the mix. Do porters file a fresh 485 when they interfile? If they do, the 485 processing time of 4 months essentially kills their chance of getting greened in FY 2014 as dates are expected to retrogress in November anyway. Is this correct?sportsfan answered so thanks should go there. My answer was a repeat, so it was deleted.

There are 2 types of porters.

a) Those who already have an I-485 pending under EB3. That's limited to PDs up to July 2007, since EB3-I has never passed that date since EB3-I was Current in 2007.

Those cases only need to complete the interfiling process, which can be very quick. These types of cases can be approved within the FY, provided USCIS have sent out the RFE for a new Medical in good time. So far on Trackitt, there is a distinct lack of early PD cases reporting receiving an RFE for a new Medical.

b) Those that have never filed an I-485, but whose case now becomes Current under EB2. They are just the same as new non-porting EB2 filers who previously missed the boat. No interfiling is involved, since they do not already have an I-485 to convert from a an EB3 basis to an EB2 basis.

Probably not much chance of being approved within FY2014. Some possibility in October 2014 for very early submitted cases. Most likely later in FY2015. It depends partly on when they can file and whether they choose to include an I-693 or not.

[imdeng]

Question for inquiring minds. We now have confirmation of RFEs up to Oct 2009 PDs. They wouldn't be sending RFEs unless there is at least some chance of dates reaching that far. But - even most optimistic projections don't have dates moving to Oct 2009. So what's going on here?? Especially considering that if one doesn't get approved this year, they will send an RFE for Medical (and I guess EVL) next year again since, as Spec explained beautifully, I-693s will expire again in one year from the date of issue. Any thoughts?? Can dates conceivably move up to Oct 2009 this FY? I, personally, don't see it happening - but what other explanation is there?

[Spectator]

Spec, while organizing the threads, you were wondering if you are writing in a foreign language! On a fun note Yes Spec ! English is a foreign language to all the Indians :)Kanmani,

Good one!

Trust you to be so logical.

Languages have never been my strong point - I admire those who are so fluent in a non-native tongue.

I couldn't even begin with a non-roman script language, let alone anything that reads right to left.

Reading the Chinese translations always reminds me how different that language is.

[imdeng]

A few posts moved to: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2437-Spec-Identity-Speculation-Spec-Appreciation

:-)

[gcpursuit]

About 5K numbers will straight up come from next year's quota. With an anticipated 15K spillover, 20K green cards can be expected to be given out. To give out 20K GCs, the date needs to be moved to make about 25K people eligible (just an estimate). This means 5K people will be left out when the date eventually retrogresses.



Sportsfan - Why would we get 5K from next year's quota since FB is not going to yield any spillover?

[sdesh005]

Question for inquiring minds. We now have confirmation of RFEs up to Oct 2009 PDs. They wouldn't be sending RFEs unless there is at least some chance of dates reaching that far. But - even most optimistic projections don't have dates moving to Oct 2009. So what's going on here?? Especially considering that if one doesn't get approved this year, they will send an RFE for Medical (and I guess EVL) next year again since, as Spec explained beautifully, I-693s will expire again in one year from the date of issue. Any thoughts?? Can dates conceivably move up to Oct 2009 this FY? I, personally, don't see it happening - but what other explanation is there?
I too have wondered about the same thing! I doubt there is any real need for them to move dates up to Oct 2009 just because RFEs were issued, but yeah you are right...why would they, unless they had some idea about the PD moving up to that point in the upcoming bulletin(s)? It could just be wishful thinking on our part because our PDs go beyond "early summer" (mine is end of July 2009, no EAD still :(), but fingers crossed! :)

If I had to guess, I'd say June 01, 2009 would be the end point this FY...but who knows, there may be a very slim chance we get lucky! :)

[Spectator]

Question for inquiring minds. We now have confirmation of RFEs up to Oct 2009 PDs. They wouldn't be sending RFEs unless there is at least some chance of dates reaching that far. But - even most optimistic projections don't have dates moving to Oct 2009. So what's going on here?? Especially considering that if one doesn't get approved this year, they will send an RFE for Medical (and I guess EVL) next year again since, as Spec explained beautifully, I-693s will expire again in one year from the date of issue. Any thoughts?? Can dates conceivably move up to Oct 2009 this FY? I, personally, don't see it happening - but what other explanation is there?RFE are issued all the time.

It may have changed, but I have yet to see a confirmed case of an RFE for a new I-693 for a late 2009 PD.

It needs about 22k approvals to satisfy the cases in the USCIS Inventory up to a COD of 01OCT09. Even allowing a 20% contingency for movement, at least 18k visas (plus any porting cases) would be needed in Q4 to satisfy that sort of movement. That seems a bit unlikely, even with the low number of EB2-WW approvals.

[gcpursuit]

RFE are issued all the time.

It may have changed, but I have yet to see a confirmed case of an RFE for a new I-693 for a late 2009 PD.

It needs about 22k approvals to satisfy the cases in the USCIS Inventory up to a COD of 01OCT09. Even allowing a 20% contingency for movement, at least 18k visas (plus any porting cases) would be needed in Q4 to satisfy that sort of movement. That seems a bit unlikely, even with the low number of EB2-WW approvals.

Spec - If we assume that next year's quota will also be used, does that make this possible? In your opinion what is a realistic COD?

P.S : I hope you say something beyond end of june ;-)

[Spectator]

Spec - If we assume that next year's quota will also be used, does that make this possible? In your opinion what is a realistic COD?

P.S : I hope you say something beyond end of june ;-)That's such a difficult question.

I'm working on there being an additional 15-16k visas being available. That will bring the total number of EB2-I approvals somewhere to over 20k for the FY (depending on how many you think have already been used).

Depending on how much contingency is used, that translates to a COD in June/July 2009 IMO (perhaps a bit further if the porting cases do not get approved).

I do have some concerns about pre July 2007 porting cases pulling the COD back and it is difficult to judge how many there might be ready to be converted. There is no large body of evidence yet of USCIS issuing Medical RFE to these cases. Since the Medical would have last been completed in July 2007, all those cases will need a new I-693 and cannot be approved without an RFE.

Like many people, I'm looking at the RFE pattern with some interest.

Everyone knows I am a pessimist.

[gcpursuit]

That's such a difficult question.

I'm working on there being an additional 15-16k visas being available. That will bring the total number of EB2-I approvals somewhere to over 20k for the FY (depending on how many you think have already been used).

Depending on how much contingency is used, that translates to a COD in June/July 2009 IMO (perhaps a bit further if the porting cases do not get approved).

I do have some concerns about pre July 2007 porting cases pulling the COD back and it is difficult to judge how many there might be ready to be converted. There is no large body of evidence yet of USCIS issuing Medical RFE to these cases. Since the Medical would have last been completed in July 2007, all those cases will need a new I-693 and cannot be approved without an RFE.

Like many people, I'm looking at the RFE pattern with some interest.

Everyone knows I am a pessimist.

Thank you,Spec. I am going to be selfish and wish it atleast reaches July 1st 2009 to get my EAD.

Forgive me for my ignorance. I know there will be pre-July 2007 porting cases but wouldnt most of them have ported last year. Would there be so much demand from pre-july 2007 porters? And what are the chances that a new application filed in July would affect the COD dates? Doesn't I-485 take much longer to get approved?

[Spectator]

Thank you,Spec. I am going to be selfish and wish it atleast reaches July 1st 2009 to get my EAD.

Forgive me for my ignorance. I know there will be pre-July 2007 porting cases but wouldnt most of them have ported last year. Would there be so much demand from pre-july 2007 porters? And what are the chances that a new application filed in July would affect the COD dates? Doesn't I-485 take much longer to get approved?As I've said before, I don't think anyone filing a new I-485 will affect the approval numbers for FY2014 very much.

People will port when they have the opportunity or when they personally decide it is the only option. That timescale will be different for people with pre July 2007 PD. Not everyone will port immediately for various reasons.

The porting from those dates will continue for years, although it may be at a lesser number over time. As of the April Inventory, there are still more than 27k cases with a PD between 2004 and July 2007 for EB3-I.

Also, remember the actual porting process started a long time ago and involves a new PERM and I-140 approval. That can't just be switched off overnight. Given the gap between the "real" EB2-I Cut Off Date and and the EB3-I Cut Off Date, porting will continue. It's still many, many years before EB3-I is set to pass a COD of 01AUG07.

[suninphx]

sun,

In FY2011, EB2-WW (ROW, M, P) used 34,550 visas.

In FY2012, EB2-WW used 25,009 visas. EB2-WW was artificially retrogressed in Q4 and approvals that should have taken place in FY2012 were pushed to FY2013.

In FY2013, EB2-WW used 42,641 visas. The increase can be attributed to those delayed from FY2012 due to retrogression.

The average EB2-WW approvals for FY2012/FY2013 was 33,825 and for the period FY2011-FY2013 it was 34,067.

When only 140,000 EB visas are available, the initial allocation for EB2-WW is 34,434.

FY2014 approvals for EB2-WW have been exceptionally low, probably due to PERM processing times increasing and slow I-140 processing. Likely I-485 approvals have come from a time when certification numbers were very low.

The PERM processing times have started to reduce recently and the volume of PERM certifications has increased hugely (Q2 & Q3 FY2014 have seen double the number of certifications compared to each of the 4 preceding quarters).

There does not seem to be a reduction in the underlying number of EB-WW PERM cases, so it likely the EB2-WW I-485 approvals will rise sharply in FY2015. The lower the number of approvals in FY2014, the higher the approval numbers in FY2015 are likely to be.

EB3-ROW date movement might have a small effect eventually, but that will be for new PERM and probably only a major factor if EB3-ROW become Current.

Q has summarised it very eloquently in the next post.

Spec - thank you for excellent data points and thanks to Q for a nice summary.

There is no doubt that slow PERM processing (and all other related processing) has helped EB2I tremendously this year.

Going into next year here are couple of points for EB2-ROW to yield few thousand spillovers( I know it wont be as great as this year but may be not as bad as being projected)

1) PERM processing has picked up speed but still takes around 6 months and seems to be stabilizing around that point
2) Even if number approved PERM cases is increasing % of EB2-ROW continues to decrease and as EB3-ROW dates are also moving and near current ..less porting pressure on EB2-ROW and may be more % of EB3-ROW cases in the mix.

Lets see how it goes. Jan 15 inventory (if published) might have some useful data. But even before that let's see how this FY ends. Looking at the dates for which RFE are being issued , it appears we are in for a wild ride of random approvals. I am hope I am wrong here.

[Kanmani]

Since the Medical would have last been completed in July 2007, all those cases will need a new I-693 and cannot be approved without an RFE.

Like many people, I'm looking at the RFE pattern with some interest.



Looking at the RFE pattern, I am of the opinion that 2008/2009 ers without RFE may get approved with their already submitted I-693 itself. If there wasn't an arrangement as stated above, random RFEs are impossible.

If that is not the case, I am wondering how USCIS going to go with at least 18k RFEs in a short span of time.

[qesehmk]

I am wondering how USCIS going to go with at least 18k RFEs in a short span of time.
Unfortunately it is a bit of spray and pray kind of strategy to me. They are issuing RFEs until Sep/Oct 2009 is a good indication that the dates actually might move upto that point. But then the reason they are a bit aggressive is to ensure that they fully utilize the quota. Not everyone with those dates will receive a GC so what we might see is people upto Mar most likely getting greened and then between Mar and Sep becomes a game of luck. But all of that is understandable. I wouldn't blame CO for such a strategy.

[vizcard]

Unfortunately it is a bit of spray and pray kind of strategy to me. They are issuing RFEs until Sep/Oct 2009 is a good indication that the dates actually might move upto that point. But then the reason they are a bit aggressive is to ensure that they fully utilize the quota. Not everyone with those dates will receive a GC so what we might see is people upto Mar most likely getting greened and then between Mar and Sep becomes a game of luck. But all of that is understandable. I wouldn't blame CO for such a strategy.

Possibly. But if they go by the book EVERY 2008/2009 person HAS to have a RFE. To Kanmanis point, how on earth are they going to process that unless it's just a matter of having a complete file for a pre-adjudicated case. A "check the box" exercise.

[Spectator]

Possibly. But if they go by the book EVERY 2008/2009 person HAS to have a RFE. To Kanmanis point, how on earth are they going to process that unless it's just a matter of having a complete file for a pre-adjudicated case. A "check the box" exercise.So far, USCIS seem to have done that by shifting their entire workforce to issuing RFE. There's hardly been any approvals in June in any Category.

That strategy becomes a positive feedback loop.

USCIS/DOS managed to approve 15k EB2-I cases in 6 weeks and a further 5k EB3-I cases in 2 weeks last year. I don't think issuing 18k RFE is a problem given the time left in the FY.

[Jagan01]

Looking at the RFE pattern, I am of the opinion that 2008/2009 ers without RFE may get approved with their already submitted I-693 itself. If there wasn't an arrangement as stated above, random RFEs are impossible.

If that is not the case, I am wondering how USCIS going to go with at least 18k RFEs in a short span of time.

We do need to look at the concentration of the RFEs. There is a bunch of RFEs until Feb 2009. From Mar 2009 onwards the RFEs are pretty sparse. I have never applied for I-485 and do not know about the process after applying I-485. Is it always true that people who RFE should be current in that FY ?

[helpful_leo]

I have seen this possibility mentioned quite a bit - but will that be even legal since the recent I-693 policy change?
Or is there a loophole the CO can exploit to workaround the I-693 renewal requirement?

It would also be interesting to see what % of 2008 PDs have not received RFEs.
I am one of them : Dec 2008 PD, 485 / I-693 filed early Jan, 2012.



Looking at the RFE pattern, I am of the opinion that 2008/2009 ers without RFE may get approved with their already submitted I-693 itself. If there wasn't an arrangement as stated above, random RFEs are impossible.

If that is not the case, I am wondering how USCIS going to go with at least 18k RFEs in a short span of time.

[Jagan01]

I think we are all happy with the SO this year. However, one lesson I learnt is that there were two theories floating around at the start of the FY regarding the supply of visas which were given out in Oct / Nov 2013.

I might have to go back and check, but I distinctly remember that Q mentioned that approvals in Oct 2013 might have been numbers that were allotted from FY 2013. I feel he was bang on target. May be CO did not give out as many GCs from the FY 2014 allocation, as many here and on other forums predicted. May be the spillover from this FY was not used in the beginning of the year and all numbers came from FY 2013 OR FY 2014 regular 2.8k allocation. That might be the reason of a larger than anticipated "unused spillover" as of today.

Good luck to everyone who is current. Hope to see some long awaited approvals.

[helooo]

Gurus,
I am a first time filer with June 16,2008 date.What is the best case scenario to receive EAD and GC.My H1 is expiring on 09/30/2014.Do I need to apply for extension?
Thanks!

[vizcard]

Gurus,
I am a first time filer with June 16,2008 date.What is the best case scenario to receive EAD and GC.My H1 is expiring on 09/30/2014.Do I need to apply for extension?
Thanks!
There are 2 dynamics at play here
1. Legal status
2. Work authorization

For #1, you are good to go as you will be in the "pending 485" status.

#2 is a timing thing - You should get your application (485/EAD/AP) in before the 4th of july holiday. That way you will definitely get your EAD before 9/30 (there is a 90 day processing time window). If you feel that you will not be able to get your EAD application in immediately, you may want to consider extending your H1B.

There is an outside chance you will get your GC directly too especially if your date stays current in Oct.

[imdeng]

As vizcard said, you don't necessarily need to apply for H1B extension if you get your EAD application out quickly. However, it is usually recommended that you stay on H1 until you get your GC, if possible. If you run into some trouble with your 485 and/or EAD - you will at least have a backup option.


Gurus,
I am a first time filer with June 16,2008 date.What is the best case scenario to receive EAD and GC.My H1 is expiring on 09/30/2014.Do I need to apply for extension?
Thanks!

[imdeng]

One can get an RFE without being current, one can also reply to an RFE without being current.

I feel that as they are sending RFEs every day, and they have good amount of time left this FY, they can indeed send them to everyone until late 2009. USCIS has shown that they can ramp up pretty quick when they need to. 18K RFEs is not that much high for the kind of workload USCIS processes.


We do need to look at the concentration of the RFEs. There is a bunch of RFEs until Feb 2009. From Mar 2009 onwards the RFEs are pretty sparse. I have never applied for I-485 and do not know about the process after applying I-485. Is it always true that people who RFE should be current in that FY ?

[imdeng]

That seems like a sound strategy to me. In Aug, give GC up to a safe date that will not cross the SO limits. Then for Sept extend dates such that there are enough ready cases to not waste any number (right now, it seems, somebody has figured this to be Oct 2009). This will mean that only a fraction of the folks in the last group will get GC - but at least there will be no waste.


Unfortunately it is a bit of spray and pray kind of strategy to me. They are issuing RFEs until Sep/Oct 2009 is a good indication that the dates actually might move upto that point. But then the reason they are a bit aggressive is to ensure that they fully utilize the quota. Not everyone with those dates will receive a GC so what we might see is people upto Mar most likely getting greened and then between Mar and Sep becomes a game of luck. But all of that is understandable. I wouldn't blame CO for such a strategy.

[Spectator]

That seems like a sound strategy to me. In Aug, give GC up to a safe date that will not cross the SO limits. Then for Sept extend dates such that there are enough ready cases to not waste any number (right now, it seems, somebody has figured this to be Oct 2009). This will mean that only a fraction of the folks in the last group will get GC - but at least there will be no waste.With the change in the I-693 validity policy, it is also important to ensure that more people do not fall though to FY2015 than there are visas available in FY2015 prior to retrogression.

I can almost guarantee that a late 2009 PD applicant who submits their RFE response in June and who is not approved before retrogression in FY2015 will have to repeat their Medical Exam again.

In that respect, I expected a more staged issuance of RFE by the PD likely to be current in the next VB. If the COD is likely to move to early 2009 in the August VB, there is no need to issue late 2009 PD RFE in June at all.

[imdeng]

I agree. Thats why I was surprised by Medical RFEs given to late 2009 PDs. It would have made more sense to go in stages as you mentioned. But then, as you mentioned, USCIS seem to be doing just RFEs right now. I guess they want to be done with all RFEs and get back to then processing the responses and approving cases. This would mean duplication of effort for both the applicants and USCIS for all folks who get RFE but do not get approved this year - but then long range planning has never been USCIS' strong suite.

A (very unlikely to happen) workaround would be to finish the visa numbers for this year in Sept, push dates to Oct-09 (or whatever is the latest RFE) in Oct - and then drop another 5-6K visas from FY2015 allocation in Oct to clear out the RFE inventory. Unlikely to happen because they can't give more than the normal allocation (2.8K) so early in the FY, the 27% rule, uncertainty of future SO numbers etc.

...
I can almost guarantee that a late 2009 PD applicant who submits their RFE response in June and who is not approved before retrogression in FY2015 will have to repeat their Medical Exam again.

In that respect, I expected a more staged issuance of RFE by the PD likely to be current in the next VB. If the COD is likely to move to early 2009 in the August VB, there is no need to issue late 2009 PD RFE in June at all.

[trackright]

All Guru's,

Would this Scenario be a possibility: If an RFE is not sent out and the applicant is current, adjucating officer assigns a VISA number and sends out RFE. Once they receive the response approve the case?

Just a thought.

[vizcard]

All Guru's,

Would this Scenario be a possibility: If an RFE is not sent out and the applicant is current, adjucating officer assigns a VISA number and sends out RFE. Once they receive the response approve the case?

Just a thought.

Based on my understanding of the process that would not be possible. I'm not sure how one could "reserve a visa" without putting him/her on the demand list i.e. "approving" the person. They couldn't approve a person without having the complete file - in this case, it wouldn't have a valid 693.

Maybe Kanmani can chime in.

[Kanmani]

trackright,

That is possible in my opinion. We have seen plenty of approvals in the past, even after the retrogression of CoD.

I can't say if that is the practicality as I have not come across anything official.

[qesehmk]

IMHO assignment of visa is the final step. So it is quite unlikely. The reason I won't say impossible because DOS/USCIS are capable of doing anything given that ultimately all institutions are only as strong as people that run them.

But I guess you are more interested in knowing if a visa number can be applied without any RFE. And the answer is absolutely yes. I just don't think not receiving an RFE is a bad thing.

All Guru's,

Would this Scenario be a possibility: If an RFE is not sent out and the applicant is current, adjucating officer assigns a VISA number and sends out RFE. Once they receive the response approve the case?

Just a thought.

[Spectator]

All Guru's,

Would this Scenario be a possibility: If an RFE is not sent out and the applicant is current, adjucating officer assigns a VISA number and sends out RFE. Once they receive the response approve the case?

Just a thought.It's always been a subject of much speculation and differing opinions.

My thoughts would be similar to Q's.

Does it ever happen? - Probably.

Is it the norm? - I don't think so.

Looking at EB2-I always muddies the waters, since SO will be available at some time and CO can take that into account, even early on in the year in the case of FB numbers.

FY2013 into FY2014 possibly gave a rare chance to look at another Category that does not normally receive extra visas.

EB3-I dates moved dramatically in September 2013 in an attempt to use up spare visas made available by USCIS not being able to process new EB3-WW cases fast enough.

The movement generated far more eligible cases than could be approved in FY2014.

Consequently, many were approved in October/November 2013. Unlike FY2013, EB3-I will not benefit from extra visas in FY2014 and has a fixed number available.

The fact that EB3-I had to be retrogressed in December 2013 and did not again pass the October 2013 Cut Off Date again until May 2014 strongly suggests that the approvals in October/November 2013 came from the FY2014 allocation and were not approved from the FY2013 allocation.

Had a good proportion of those cases had a visa blocked from the FY2013 allocation, the EB3-I Cut Off Dates would have moved more than the 2 months it looks like they will move in FY2014.

Reserving visas awaiting an RFE response has a downside. If the RFE is not responded to, or is unacceptable, the visa might be wasted completely if the FY has ended. It is more efficient for the IO to simply issue the RFE and move onto another case where the visa might be issued immediately. They can't wait for a potential 87 days to finally approve the case and use the visa.

If there are delays between allocation and final approval, one reason might be that it is caused by a wait for a final supervisory review at the Service Center.

I think it is ultimately a question that will never have a definitive or satisfactory answer.

[Kanmani]

Reserving visas awaiting an RFE response has a downside. If the RFE is not responded to, or is unacceptable, the visa might be wasted completely if the FY has ended. It is more efficient for the IO to simply issue the RFE and move onto another case where the visa might be issued immediately. They can't wait for a potential 87 days to finally approve the case and use the visa.

If there are delays between allocation and final approval, one reason might be that it is caused by a wait for a final supervisory review at the Service Center.

I think it is ultimately a question that will never have a definitive or satisfactory answer.

591 Nice argument Spec.

[Spectator]

591 Nice argument Spec.Kanmani,

Love the picture!

My reasoning could still be complete and utter rubbish. I think that's the point - nobody knows.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

Love the picture!

My reasoning could still be complete and utter rubbish. I think that's the point - nobody knows.

Your point is worth and valid as long as the renewal of I-693 is a must for adjudication. It is not sensible for an adjudicator to reserve a visa number and wait for the RFE response at least 50% of 19K times (I'll include myself too).

[manikchand]

They could 'reserve' a visa. Knowing that 90% or more applicants answer RFE's in < ~ 30 days,that's not a huge risk to the visa numbers. Depending on what happens with the RFE , if not received > 90 days they could then allocate the unused numbers to the next in queue. Maybe that's why the buffer of applicants Early Summer - Oct 2009 and also the reason of sending out RFE's 3 months in advance.

Everyone responds now making approvals go in line and faster when dates get current. Also, this could help with FIFO and get rid of the backlog chronologically.

[trackright]

Thanks Spec, Q and Kanmani .. That makes sense.. I just though that might be a possibility and wanted to get it out for opinions.


Your point is worth and valid as long as the renewal of I-693 is a must for adjudication. It is not sensible for an adjudicator to reserve a visa number and wait for the RFE response at least 50% of 19K times (I'll include myself too).

Adjudicator enna kenaya ? ( Somebody Good in English please translate)

[flexan]

Hello Gurus,

Are there any chances of EB2-I PD dates reaching early 2011 in Q3 2015? Thanks for your response.

[vizcard]

Hello Gurus,

Are there any chances of EB2-I PD dates reaching early 2011 in Q3 2015? Thanks for your response.

I doubt it. I think there is a chance they will move dates to 2011 in Q4 2014 earliest. I personally think it will be Q1 2015 or later.

[JJcalifornian]

Is there a way we can have an estimate on dates movement on July VB ? , in light of the current movement wouldn't help to issue so many GCs due to the undergoing RFEs.

I would receive the RFE by next week, thinking, if I hold it till the July VB and move the dates at least to 1 Feb 2009, I can get the I485 approved easily, as they open up my RFE response they see that my PD is current and issue the GC right away rather than keeping it in the file and wait for the PD movement.

[hushmybaby]

I doubt it. I think there is a chance they will move dates to 2011 in Q4 2014 earliest. I personally think it will be Q1 2015 or later.

Hi Vizcard --- Are you saying there is a chance of EB2-I 2011 to be current in 2015 ?

Please let me know as I was thinking of employment change in 2015 and start the Perm process again. Thanks.

[imdeng]

Early 2011 - Hmm... if you are looking for an EAD/AP, then IF CO starts inventory building in FY 2015 then you will have a shot at that. Currently, the overall feel on the board (and my opinion) happens to be that inventory building may not be needed until FY2016. However, we will know a little better after this FY ends. I will put the odds of it happening in Q3FY2015 as very low.

Please remember that this is just a guess, somewhat informed guess - but a guess nonetheless.

Hello Gurus,

Are there any chances of EB2-I PD dates reaching early 2011 in Q3 2015? Thanks for your response.

[qesehmk]

Guys ... i know there is a lot of euphoria and excitement because of the prospective date movement.

But may I request to keep the language professional. Don't want to be a cultural police here. So I am not going to touch anybody's post. Simply making a request.

@hushmybaby welcome to forum. Viz is saying 2011 will be current not earlier than Q4 of 2015 i.e. Jul-Sep of 2015.

[vizcard]

Sorry I meant to Q4 2015 in my earlier post sinc we are already in Q4 2014

[CleanSock]

But what if the armageddon scenario (as mentioned by Spec) comes true? Then we won't even touch 2010 next FY.



Sorry I meant to Q4 2015 in my earlier post sinc we are already in Q4 2014

[Silverlining027]

But what if the armageddon scenario (as mentioned by Spec) comes true? Then we won't even touch 2010 next FY.

I have same question in my mind. My PD is july 2010, EB2I. Gurus please provide some info. Thank you.

[vizcard]

I have same question in my mind. My PD is july 2010, EB2I. Gurus please provide some info. Thank you.

Spec is right. The numbers don't support movement. The only way it would move is if CO wants to build inventory. I doubt it'll happen in FY2015 but if it did I'd expect it in Sept 2015.

[triplet]

Spec is right. The numbers don't support movement. The only way it would move is if CO wants to build inventory. I doubt it'll happen in FY2015 but if it did I'd expect it in Sept 2015.

I think it sucks, but the fact is we all have to wait for 6 years - I think 6 is the norm and 5 is the exception. My PD is Oct 08 and it will be 6 years (if &) when I get the green card in my hand this year. The ebb and flow of the process could land a green card for those who have priority dates at the start of 2010 in 5, but the chances of that are slim. There's no other way of putting it, it simply sucks and more so if you're stuck in a job that you don't like. Think like this though, once you get it, everything opens up and it would have all been worth it - so, hang in there and don't give up!

[eb22010]

I got the EAD end of April 2012. For me, ****iew it as 3.5 years, which is not too bad considering everything. Yes, the actual green card is going to happen this year, but it doesn't change anything for me at least.

Late 2008-early 2010 was the "lucky window". Most of us got the EADs into 2-3.5 years of our GC journey. The unlucky folks are late 2010 folks who are really going to have to wait 6 years just for the EAD.

I missed to file earlier when the dates were current previously. Any chance wheb Feb 2010 will be current again. Is it in 2016?

[CleanSock]

I guess early 2011 people don't even come into the picture in that case. I think there may not be any inventory build up post May 2010 the reason being 2010 is a heavy year in terms of number of applications. All CO may need to do is move the dates by 6 months and he would get enough applications to use all the available visas.


I got the EAD end of April 2012. For me, ****iew it as 3.5 years, which is not too bad considering everything. Yes, the actual green card is going to happen this year, but it doesn't change anything for me at least.

Late 2008-early 2010 was the "lucky window". Most of us got the EADs into 2-3.5 years of our GC journey. The unlucky folks are late 2010 folks who are really going to have to wait 6 years just for the EAD.

[YTeleven]

I guess early 2011 people don't even come into the picture in that case. I think there may not be any inventory build up post May 2010 the reason being 2010 is a heavy year in terms of number of applications. All CO may need to do is move the dates by 6 months and he would get enough applications to use all the available visas.

This is NOT entirely true. Actually, the FY2010 received 28% lesser PERM applications than FY2009. As the PD is based on the PERM received date, we will see lesser applications in FY2010. Key here is FY2010 NOT CY2010.
There is a very bright chance of inventory buildup in 2nd of half of FY2015. In FY2015 EB2-ROW will consume heavily but still we can expect a total visa allocations to EB2-I in the range of 12k to 15K which will be 10K lesser than what is predicted for FY14. If you go thru my earlier postings, I was predicted the date movement to July1st 2009(which was a conservative estimate) based on the EB2-ROW consumption pattern, when everyone was so pessimistic on date movements including CO.

[vedu]

YTeleven,

It's good to hear your early predictions about the next year! We will have far better insight once this year's craziness ends in a few months!
This is NOT entirely true. Actually, the FY2010 received 28% lesser PERM applications than FY2009. As the PD is based on the PERM received date, we will see lesser applications in FY2010. Key here is FY2010 NOT CY2010.
There is a very bright chance of inventory buildup in 2nd of half of FY2015. In FY2015 EB2-ROW will consume heavily but still we can expect a total visa allocations to EB2-I in the range of 12k to 15K which will be 10K lesser than what is predicted for FY14. If you go thru my earlier postings, I was predicted the date movement to July1st 2009(which was a conservative estimate) based on the EB2-ROW consumption pattern, when everyone was so pessimistic on date movements including CO.

[CleanSock]

Inventory buildup in second half of FY2015? That sounds very dream like! I just checked PERM statistics of FY 2010. I see from DOL pdf that they certified 28,930 PERM applications from Indians. I am not sure how many of those were for EB2I. How does that number compare to EB2I in FY2009 and how many have they processed/will be processing (a rough estimate) by the end of this FY?
Sorry if this had already been explained before. All those previous calculations went over my head.




This is NOT entirely true. Actually, the FY2010 received 28% lesser PERM applications than FY2009. As the PD is based on the PERM received date, we will see lesser applications in FY2010. Key here is FY2010 NOT CY2010.
There is a very bright chance of inventory buildup in 2nd of half of FY2015. In FY2015 EB2-ROW will consume heavily but still we can expect a total visa allocations to EB2-I in the range of 12k to 15K which will be 10K lesser than what is predicted for FY14. If you go thru my earlier postings, I was predicted the date movement to July1st 2009(which was a conservative estimate) based on the EB2-ROW consumption pattern, when everyone was so pessimistic on date movements including CO.

[vizcard]

This is NOT entirely true. Actually, the FY2010 received 28% lesser PERM applications than FY2009. As the PD is based on the PERM received date, we will see lesser applications in FY2010. Key here is FY2010 NOT CY2010.
There is a very bright chance of inventory buildup in 2nd of half of FY2015. In FY2015 EB2-ROW will consume heavily but still we can expect a total visa allocations to EB2-I in the range of 12k to 15K which will be 10K lesser than what is predicted for FY14. If you go thru my earlier postings, I was predicted the date movement to July1st 2009(which was a conservative estimate) based on the EB2-ROW consumption pattern, when everyone was so pessimistic on date movements including CO.

Could you explain the math again for me please (or point me to the post if you posted it previously). There are variables for the 485 numbers that are not necessarily reflected in PERM numbers.
- EB1 doesn't need PERM (affects SO)
- EB3 -> EB2 porting may inflate some of the previous PERM numbers... so net new might not really be that much lower.
- PERM data reports don't split by EB2 and EB3.

[Prabhas]

Guys,

As it appears the current slow on perm approvals is helping the dates move well into 2009. I presume that the dates may further move in Jan-2015 after a temporary halt at the beginning of FY-2015 quota which gives the CO a better understanding on how he wants to handle the FY'15. If the dates move into Oct-2009, then the pending inventory will be shrink-ed and left with around 9K and adding another 5K porting applications for the FY-2015 it brings the total to around 14K which I believe is a number that would tempt CO to push dates further and this time past May-2010.

I understand that the applicants affected by current perm slow down will show up in the inventory some time this year, but if the same slow down continues it will have a similar bearing on the applicants that are currently or yet apply for Perm especially those from EB2-ROW.

So with this assumption, wouldn't it make the picture a little optimistic for those applicants post May-2010?

V

[tatikonda]

Hi Gurus,

I see "2014 - Visa Reciprocity changes " document on AILA website,
Unfortunately we do not have access to these documents ..

Anyone of you know, what is cooking here ??
I am crossing my fingers :) ..

http://www.aila.org/

Regards
Tatikonda.

[YTeleven]

Inventory buildup in second half of FY2015? That sounds very dream like! I just checked PERM statistics of FY 2010. I see from DOL pdf that they certified 28,930 PERM applications from Indians. I am not sure how many of those were for EB2I. How does that number compare to EB2I in FY2009 and how many have they processed/will be processing (a rough estimate) by the end of this FY?
Sorry if this had already been explained before. All those previous calculations went over my head.

In FY2010, DOL has started with 67K backlog and ended the year with 30K backlog. During this time they have recieved 44K, Adjudicated 83K & Certified 71K PERMS.
So, the 29K PERMs which they certified for India belongs to some of FY2008 PDs, whole of FY2009 PDs & very few of FY2010 PDs.

[Spectator]

The DHS Yearbook Of Immigration Statistics for FY2013 (http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics) has been published.

Some figures from the tables.

Breakdown of EB1 by Sub-Category

EB1A - 25,0%
EB1B - 19.2%
EB1C - 55.7%

Note - Principals Only. Dependents are not broken down.

Principals & Dependents By Category (includes Principal)

EB1 - 2.40
EB2 - 2.02
EB3 - 2.14
EB4 - 1.48 (2.18 when SIJ are excluded)
EB5 - 2.74

[aquatican]

As per Fragomen Memo the PD's would move to Early Summer 2009 by September bulletin. Does Early Summer mean June or July?

[vizcard]

As per Fragomen Memo the PD's would move to Early Summer 2009 by September bulletin. Does Early Summer mean June or July?

As knowledgeable as the people on this forum are, I dont think there's anyone who is qualified to answer "what early summer" means with any degree of accuracy. As far as CODs, the furthest prediction has been July 1.

FWIW, June 22 is the first possible COD after the summer solstice :)

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec! Always first out of the gate.

EB4 dependent ratio is "interesting" to say the least. All sorts of thoughts raced through my mind. But I am gonna keep shut lest somebody get offended ;)

The DHS Yearbook Of Immigration Statistics for FY2013 (http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics) has been published.

Some figures from the tables.

Breakdown of EB1 by Sub-Category

EB1A - 25,0%
EB1B - 19.2%
EB1C - 55.7%

Note - Principals Only. Dependents are not broken down.

Principals & Dependents By Category (includes Principal)

EB1 - 2.40
EB2 - 2.02
EB3 - 2.14
EB4 - 1.48
EB5 - 2.74

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec! Always first out of the gate.

EB4 dependent ratio is "interesting" to say the least. All sorts of thoughts raced through my mind. But I am gonna keep shut lest somebody get offended ;)Q,

I think I know where you are going with that one!

Actually, to be serious, all is not quite as it seems.

Nearly a third of EB4 approvals (2,764 of 8,543) relate to Juvenile court dependents. They are a category in their own right and count as principal approvals.

If they were removed, the EB4 Principal/Dependent ratio would be 2.18.

[hushmybaby]

In FY2010, DOL has started with 67K backlog and ended the year with 30K backlog. During this time they have recieved 44K, Adjudicated 83K & Certified 71K PERMS.
So, the 29K PERMs which they certified for India belongs to some of FY2008 PDs, whole of FY2009 PDs & very few of FY2010 PDs.
Hi YTekeven,
So when is the optimum time when you think CO will consider early 2011 even for EAD/AP. thanks in advance for your input

[qesehmk]

I was just joking... but interesting to see Emp category visas being used for purposes nothing to do with employment. IMHO they should get FB visas. Another place where an advocacy is required then.
Q,

I think I know where you are going with that one!

Actually, to be serious, all is not quite as it seems.

Nearly a third of EB4 approvals (2,764 of 8,543) relate to Juvenile court dependents. They are a category in their own right and count as principal approvals.

If they were removed, the EB4 Principal/Dependent ratio would be 2.18.

[Spectator]

I was just joking... but interesting to see Emp category visas being used for purposes nothing to do with employment. IMHO they should get FB visas. Another place where an advocacy is required then.Q,

Well it is called Fourth: Certain special immigrants

Very few are directly Employment Based, but none would come under FB either.

Are you sure you want them to go to FB?

Currently, EB4 is the best source of Fall Up/Down. If they went elsewhere, so would their visa allocation.

EB5 doesn't really fit into EB either, but the alternative is to have 4 numerically limited groups instead of 2.

[qesehmk]

I think there is a case to be made that they be not taken out of any preference visas whether EB or FB.

Being an EX-EB category member of course I am biased towards EB and so I can't see how "Certain Special Immigrants" can be classified into Emp based category. Religious workers fit the category well. But juveniles that courts don't know what to do with don't exactly fit EB category.


Q,

Well it is called Fourth: Certain special immigrants

Very few are directly Employment Based, but none would come under FB either.

Are you sure you want them to go to FB?

Currently, EB4 is the best source of Fall Up/Down. If they went elsewhere, so would their visa allocation.

EB5 doesn't really fit into EB either, but the alternative is to have 4 numerically limited groups instead of 2.

[vizcard]

I think there is a case to be made that they be not taken out of any preference visas whether EB or FB.

Being an EX-EB category member of course I am biased towards EB and so I can't see how "Certain Special Immigrants" can be classified into Emp based category. Religious workers fit the category well. But juveniles that courts don't know what to do with don't exactly fit EB category.

Hey if EB is for future employment, juvies fall in that category, no? :)

[qesehmk]

:) We need a future employer sponsoring them which is absent in this case!

Hey if EB is for future employment, juvies fall in that category, no? :)

[Spectator]

I think there is a case to be made that they be not taken out of any preference visas whether EB or FB.

Being an EX-EB category member of course I am biased towards EB and so I can't see how "Certain Special Immigrants" can be classified into Emp based category. Religious workers fit the category well. But juveniles that courts don't know what to do with don't exactly fit EB category.Your comment has jogged a memory of a salient point.

I'm a little annoyed at the new USCIS All Forms report because it no longer splits I-360 into sub groups.

Why is that important?

Juvenile court dependents (SIJ) do not count against the EB4 allocation of 7.1%. DHS really should not include them under EB4 in their report, in the same way as (for example) VAWA approvals are not part of EB4.

That's why the DOS figures show far fewer approvals under EB4 than the DHS report does. Removing the SIJ actually makes the DHS figures lower than DOS figures, but they never agree for any Category.

In light of that, I think I will put in a corrected figure for dependent ratio in my original post.

The fact remains that Ministers and Religious Workers are the only 2 true employment groups within EB4. They account for well under half of the visas used. I think Congress realized they were creating something of an odds and sods Category to mop up remaining cases.

EB5 isn't really an EB Category either. It might require employment creation, but there is no requirement that the beneficiary works at all.

[qesehmk]

Bow 1..
Bow 2..
Bow 3.
Nobody can dig this out other than "Spec".

Your comment has jogged a memory of a salient point.

I'm a little annoyed at the new USCIS All Forms report because it no longer splits I-360 into sub groups.

Why is that important?

Juvenile court dependents (SIJ) do not count against the EB4 allocation of 7.1%. DHS really should not include them under EB4 in their report, in the same way as (for example) VAWA approvals are not part of EB4.

That's why the DOS figures show far fewer approvals under EB4 than the DHS report does. Removing the SIJ actually makes the DHS figures lower than DOS figures, but they never agree for any Category.

In light of that, I think I will put in a corrected figure for dependent ratio in my original post.

The fact remains that Ministers and Religious Workers are the only 2 true employment groups within EB4. They account for well under half of the visas used. I think Congress realized they were creating something of an odds and sods Category to mop up remaining cases.

EB5 isn't really an EB Category either. It might require employment creation, but there is no requirement that the beneficiary works at all.

[Spectator]

Damn!!

I was looking at the wrong figure.

There is not much of a difference between the DOS and DHS figures for EB4 (500 or so).

Still, I do seem to remember finding out previously that SIJ do not count. I'm going to have to research it and find out. It's driving me nuts now.

[Spectator]

I now realize why I thought SIJ were not counted under EB4, but it appears to be an erroneous assumption (a real ass of me).

SIJ do in fact count towards EB4 numbers according to a breakdown of EB4 (http://srwlawyers.com/eb4/) I found.

In light of that, based on the I-360 approval numbers, I am surprised that EB4 approvals are so low.

I eat humble pie.

[qesehmk]

That's ok Spec. It doesn't lessen your diligence.

So I guess the bottomline is SIJ do count towards EB4 and both DoS and DHS figures count them towards EB4. Is that correct?

I now realize why I thought SIJ were not counted under EB4, but it appears to be an erroneous assumption (a real ass of me).

SIJ do in fact count towards EB4 numbers according to a breakdown of EB4 (http://srwlawyers.com/eb4/) I found.

In light of that, based on the I-360 approval numbers, I am surprised that EB4 approvals are so low.

I eat humble pie.

[Spectator]

That's ok Spec. It doesn't lessen your diligence.

So I guess the bottomline is SIJ do count towards EB4 and both DoS and DHS figures count them towards EB4. Is that correct?Q,

That's correct.

EB4 is a right mix of cases that don't fit anywhere else.

Previously (a long time ago), I was trying to link I-360 approvals to EB4 use, because we never get any information about EB4 during the year. Including the SIJ cases was giving figures that were too high given the dependent ratio. Excluding them actually gave a good fit. That's where my erroneous assumption came from. The fact that they are included leaves a slight mystery as to why approvals are so low. I've accepted that it is probably a problem I will not resolve.

Sorry for the wild goose chase.

[YTeleven]

Hi YTeleven,
So when is the optimum time when you think CO will consider early 2011 even for EAD/AP. thanks in advance for your input

If we assume the following visa allocations for the EB2-I (which is a fair one considering the last 4 years stats):
FY14 - 22k
FY15 - 12k
FY16 - 22k
then we can expect early 2011 cases will be getting the EADs in early FY17.
Also, FY17 will be interesting to see as there will not be any EB3-EB2 porting pressures for EB2-I as all of the EB3-I backlog will be cleared by then due to lack of EB3-ROW demand.

[shekhar_kuruk]

Hey YT,
If we assume 22k for FY14, will that take us past July 09 considering the demand data. Thanks.


If we assume the following visa allocations for the EB2-I (which is a fair one considering the last 4 years stats):
FY14 - 22k
FY15 - 12k
FY16 - 22k
then we can expect early 2011 cases will be getting the EADs in early FY17.
Also, FY17 will be interesting to see as there will not be any EB3-EB2 porting pressures for EB2-I as all of the EB3-I backlog will be cleared by then due to lack of EB3-ROW demand.

[YTeleven]

Hey YT,
If we assume 22k for FY14, will that take us past July 09 considering the demand data. Thanks.

There is already 5.5k visas issued under FY14 quota in Oct'13. There is 10.5k demand exists before the 1Jan2009 PD.
So, the remaining 6k (22k-5.5k-10.5k) will take us to May'09.
But we need more visas than 22k this year if we want to see the dates move beyond Jul'09.

[jimmys]

On trackitt, the RFEs were received as latest as Oct 2009. Are they gonna move dates to fall of 2009? Does it mean they have numbers to allot up to Aug 2009 or so? I'm July 2009 and yet to file 485.

[shekhar_kuruk]

No one is sure about the how far the dates will move in Aug's & Sep's Bulletin, you may be able to file for AOS if they move past July 09 in Sep's bulletin.
I think everyone in this forum will be suprised if not shocked, if they move to Oct 09 in Sep's or Oct's bulletin, it all depends on the spill over.
But I think you have a fair chance to file for AOS this fall. Good luck.


On trackitt, the RFEs were received as latest as Oct 2009. Are they gonna move dates to fall of 2009? Does it mean they have numbers to allot up to Aug 2009 or so? I'm July 2009 and yet to file 485.

[YTeleven]

No one is sure about the how far the dates will move in Aug's & Sep's Bulletin, you may be able to file for AOS if they move past July 09 in Sep's bulletin.
I think everyone in this forum will be suprised if not shocked, if they move to Oct 09 in Sep's or Oct's bulletin, it all depends on the spill over.
But I think you have a fair chance to file for AOS this fall. Good luck.



To clear off all the pending 485's ( without giving any breathing time for porters and new filers) till 01-Oct-2009, EB2-I needs a total of 28.5K visas in FY14.
In otherwords it needs a 7k in Jul'14, 8K in Aug'14 & another 8K in Sep'14.
The corresponding CODs will be Sep'08 for Jul'14, Mar'09 for Aug'14 & Oct'09 for Sep'14.

Now the question is how will EB2-I get these many visas. It can only happen if something extremely goes wrong with EB1C & EB2-ROW processing this year.
If we know ground realities in those categories then its anybody's guess where will be the dates move.

[helooo]

Hello Everyone,
I got Birth Certificate from India.My father's surname is not written on my Certificate but it's on my Paassport.My mother's surname is written on Birth Certificate but not on Passport.Birth certificate issuing authority says they can't add or remove anything.Is it ok or no?
Thanks

[Kanmani]

Hello Everyone,
I got Birth Certificate from India.My father's surname is not written on my Certificate but it's on my Paassport.My mother's surname is written on Birth Certificate but not on Passport.Birth certificate issuing authority says they can't add or remove anything.Is it ok or no?
Thanks

Nearly 90% of us have Birth Certificate issues, so called non-compatibility with US immigration requirements. Each Indian state issues BC in different format which is not rejected in that particular state's education system, we have no requirement of BCs once Secondary School Leaving Certificate is issued. ( I guess this holds true for most of the Indian states). Our Head ache starts once we start our immigration process.

helooo,

Your Birth Certificate is ok . Get affidavits as secondary evidence from your parents/relatives and submit them along with your BC.

[4WatItsWorth]

To clear off all the pending 485's ( without giving any breathing time for porters and new filers) till 01-Oct-2009, EB2-I needs a total of 28.5K visas in FY14.
In otherwords it needs a 7k in Jul'14, 8K in Aug'14 & another 8K in Sep'14.
The corresponding CODs will be Sep'08 for Jul'14, Mar'09 for Aug'14 & Oct'09 for Sep'14.

Now the question is how will EB2-I get these many visas. It can only happen if something extremely goes wrong with EB1C & EB2-ROW processing this year.
If we know ground realities in those categories then its anybody's guess where will be the dates move.

Long time reader, first time poster... and a big fan of the forum!

Q, Spec, Yt...
Given Math YT provides above, what do you make of the RFEs all way to end of Oct 09? I had been hibernating but woke up seeing them. My PD is 30-Oct-2009. Can I hope to get a chance to file I-485 this FY?

[vizcard]

Long time reader, first time poster... and a big fan of the forum!

Q, Spec, Yt...
Given Math YT provides above, what do you make of the RFEs all way to end of Oct 09? I had been hibernating but woke up seeing them. My PD is 30-Oct-2009. Can I hope to get a chance to file I-485 this FY?

The Fragomen bulletin said early summer. While "early summer" is open to interpretation, I don't think Oct 2009 will get current. The Oct RFEs probably indicate that Oct 2009 will be current this time next year.

My opinion is if you have a PD of mid to late 2009, you should delay doing your medical tests till early Aug. That way it will surely be valid next year. Otherwise you run the risk of having to do it all over again.

[flexan]

I have this question on how the I-485 inventory is managed? Let's say as an hypothetical example, if 20k visas are issued to EB2-I for this FY, how far will CO move the dates for EB2-I to maintain sufficient I-485 inventory build-up?

[vizcard]

I have this question on how the I-485 inventory is managed? Let's say as an hypothetical example, if 20k visas are issued to EB2-I for this FY, how far will CO move the dates for EB2-I to maintain sufficient I-485 inventory build-up?

Its a balance of inventory and demand. Inventory = Demand + pending applications. In the current situation, there is sufficient demand to NOT need to move dates to build inventory specifically. When both demand and inventory start to get low that's when CO would moves dates specifically to build inventory.

[Spectator]

I have this question on how the I-485 inventory is managed? Let's say as an hypothetical example, if 20k visas are issued to EB2-I for this FY, how far will CO move the dates for EB2-I to maintain sufficient I-485 inventory build-up?As vizcard says, it is a balance between demand from EB2-I and supply of visas available at the time.

That's slightly complicated because USCIS process almost 100% of EB2-I cases and CO is reliant on the information provided by them. He can only see information on preadjudicated case and, when current, new cases/ converting cases only as they are approved.

Currently, it's fair to assume that he can see pretty much all the 31k EB2-I cases in the USCIS inventory as of April 2014.

What he can't see currently (and must estimate), are cases currently showing as EB3 (porters) and any applications that USCIS have not preadjudicated and requested a visa for. On the other hand, he must also make an estimate for cases that will either be denied or delayed beyond the current FY.

For example, if he had a further 15k visas left for EB2-I this year, that would leave 31 -15 = 16k left, plus any porters who use visas plus any new applications that use visas this FY as the opening balance for FY2015. In FY2015 there would be a few more porters to account for as well.

Only when the balance of known demand remaining approaches the number of visas available at a point in time, can CO consider moving the Cut Off Dates beyond 01MAY10. In the example above, he would need around 16k+ visas in FY2015 to move the dates beyond 01MAY10 and create a new inventory. I would stress that the 15k figure is an example figure only.

Some people might say that could happen in FY2015 and other believe it will be at least FY2016 before that point is reached.

EB2-China Cut Off Dates should move beyond 01MAY10 during FY2015. They will have at least 2.8k visas available, while demand going into FY2015 will be below that figure, at least judging by the present Cut Off date and the last Inventory figures.

Generally the dates move slightly in advance of visas being exhausted, since it takes several months for USCIS to process them to completion. Only then will CO be able to see the demand.

[CleanSock]

Spec,
Based on what you said about EB2 China, I checked their progression in FY13 and FY14 so far. They seem to be moving about a month every month. If the same pace continues without it halting during Q4 FY14 then they should hit May 2010 around April 2015, give or take a couple of months. So, you say EB2I can only hit May 2010 after EB2C reaches that point?



As vizcard says, it is a balance between demand from EB2-I and supply of visas available at the time.

That's slightly complicated because USCIS process almost 100% of EB2-I cases and CO is reliant on the information provided by them. He can only see information on preadjudicated case and, when current, new cases/ converting cases only as they are approved.

Currently, it's fair to assume that he can see pretty much all the 31k EB2-I cases in the USCIS inventory as of April 2014.

What he can't see currently (and must estimate), are cases currently showing as EB3 (porters) and any applications that USCIS have not preadjudicated and requested a visa for. On the other hand, he must also make an estimate for cases that will either be denied or delayed beyond the current FY.

For example, if he had a further 15k visas left for EB2-I this year, that would leave 31 -15 = 16k left, plus any porters who use visas plus any new applications that use visas this FY as the opening balance for FY2015. In FY2015 there would be a few more porters to account for as well.

Only when the balance of known demand remaining approaches the number of visas available at a point in time, can CO consider moving the Cut Off Dates beyond 01MAY10. In the example above, he would need around 16k+ visas in FY2015 to move the dates beyond 01MAY10 and create a new inventory. I would stress that the 15k figure is an example figure only.

Some people might say that could happen in FY2015 and other believe it will be at least FY2016 before that point is reached.

EB2-China Cut Off Dates should move beyond 01MAY10 during FY2015. They will have at least 2.8k visas available, while demand going into FY2015 will be below that figure, at least judging by the present Cut Off date and the last Inventory figures.

Generally the dates move slightly in advance of visas being exhausted, since it takes several months for USCIS to process them to completion. Only then will CO be able to see the demand.

[idiotic]

Some people might say that could happen in FY2015 and other believe it will be at least FY2016 before that point is reached.


The following is more of wishful thinking :)

With CIR almost dead and this is Obama's sixth year of presidency do you think that there is higher probability of repeat of Aug 2007 scenario. This might serve dual purpose of providing some administrative relief for legal immigrants and also build up inventory.

[Spectator]

Spec,
Based on what you said about EB2 China, I checked their progression in FY13 and FY14 so far. They seem to be moving about a month every month. If the same pace continues without it halting during Q4 FY14 then they should hit May 2010 around April 2015, give or take a couple of months. So, you say EB2I can only hit May 2010 after EB2C reaches that point?Cleansock,

EB2-I cannot have a Cut Off Date later than that for EB2-C while EB2-I has a greater demand than EB2-C.

To do so currently, EB2-I would be using "otherwise unused visas". In that situation, EB2-C would have to share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I.

The converse is not true, if EB2-C can achieve a later Cut Off Date than EB2-I purely on the basis of their initial allocation (a minimum of 2.8k).

CO explained this in the May 2011 VB (http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2011/visa-bulletin-for-may-2011.html). The relevant part from Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5) is:


Based on amount and priority dates of pending demand and year-to-date number use, a different cut-off date could be applied to each oversubscribed country, for the purpose of assuring that the maximum amount of available numbers will be used.

Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit.

For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Although not directly related to your question, there was also an interesting section entitled D. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON FREQUENTLY MISUNDERSTOOD POINTS in the April 2010 VB (http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2010/visa-bulletin-for-april-2010.html). It's worth having bookmarked IMO.

I think I will post the full content of both in the FACTS and DATA section for easy reference.

[CleanSock]

I see. That means they both are loosely coupled. Even though EB2I can never surpass EB2C as long as it has more demand than EB2C, at the same time EB2C hitting May 2010 doesn't guarantee EB2I hitting May 2010 sometime close to it either. So I guess demand buildup in FY15 is ruled out.


Cleansock,

EB2-I cannot have a Cut Off Date later than that for EB2-C while EB2-I has a greater demand than EB2-C.

To do so currently, EB2-I would be using "otherwise unused visas". In that situation, EB2-C would have to share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I.

The converse is not true, if EB2-C can achieve a later Cut Off Date than EB2-I purely on the basis of their initial allocation (a minimum of 2.8k).

CO explained this in the May 2011 VB (http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2011/visa-bulletin-for-may-2011.html). The relevant part from Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5) is:



Although not directly related to your question, there was also an interesting section entitled D. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON FREQUENTLY MISUNDERSTOOD POINTS in the April 2010 VB (http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2010/visa-bulletin-for-april-2010.html). It's worth having bookmarked IMO.

I think I will post the full content of both in the FACTS and DATA section for easy reference.

[4WatItsWorth]

I don't think Oct 2009 will get current. The Oct RFEs probably indicate that Oct 2009 will be current this time next year.Thanks, vizcard. In that case, on the USCIS' part, why should there be a hurry to send those RFEs now verses next year? Especially, since the medicals are $600-700 expense for a family and they probably know it. Do they usually send such RFEs for dates that are not likely to be current?

Additionally, I think that close to the end of FY the last year, CO forecast Feb2008 and the dates actually moved to June2008. This year he supposedly said early Summer (say, Jun, Jul) 09. Is it possible that it may actually go through end of Oct 09? Does he tend to stay conservative?

[Chilli19]

If we assume the following visa allocations for the EB2-I (which is a fair one considering the last 4 years stats):
FY14 - 22k
FY15 - 12k
FY16 - 22k
then we can expect early 2011 cases will be getting the EADs in early FY17.
Also, FY17 will be interesting to see as there will not be any EB3-EB2 porting pressures for EB2-I as all of the EB3-I backlog will be cleared by then due to lack of EB3-ROW demand.

Based on above assumptions when do you think there is a chance of buiding new inventory i.e. getting an EAD for the PD 05/27/2010

[vizcard]

Thanks, vizcard. In that case, on the USCIS' part, why should there be a hurry to send those RFEs now verses next year? Especially, since the medicals are $600-700 expense for a family and they probably know it. Do they usually send such RFEs for dates that are not likely to be current?

Additionally, I think that close to the end of FY the last year, CO forecast Feb2008 and the dates actually moved to June2008. This year he supposedly said early Summer (say, Jun, Jul) 09. Is it possible that it may actually go through end of Oct 09? Does he tend to stay conservative?

Couple of factors -
1. USCIS and DOS are 2 different organizations that don't necessarily talk to each other on a daily basis. So USCIS doesn't know for sure how far dates will progress. For all you know DOS might be working off the same assumption that since CO said Feb 08 and dates moved to June so lets be prepared for the worst. The last thing USCIS would want is to get blamed for visas going unused. As for the money part of it, do you think they really care ?

2. CO and DOS make forecasts based on assumptions and available data at that point in time . As with any forecast, they tend to be more accurate the closer you get. So I fully expect that while he said early summer 2009 in May-end, that will change by July-end in either direction.

[Spectator]

Unofficial Prediction of Visa Number Movement for the Rest of FY 2014 From AILA Conference From Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/)


06/20/2014: Unofficial Prediction of Visa Number Movement for the Rest of FY 2014 (September 30, 2014)

Reportedly, at the AILA National Conference, DOS sources disclosed the following rough predictions:



EB-2 India:





August: Move upto "early" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)





September: Move upto "spring" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)





EB-3 India: Not more than a week at a time





China EB-3: Anticipated major movement





Family-based Immigrant Categories: In the current pace



On behalf of our readers, this reporter wants to express a gratitude for a colleague attorney who currently attends the conference and was sharing the valuable information with us and our audience.

[Kanmani]

From Oh Law Firm

EB-2 India:

August: Move upto "early" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)
September: Move upto "spring" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)
(http://www.immigration-law.com/)

Hmm. Thanks Spec.

Looks like I am gonna miss the boat by 2-3 weeks difference. Frustrating!

[Pundit Arjun]

Hmm. Thanks Spec.

Looks like I am gonna miss the boat by 2-3 weeks difference. Frustrating!

I dont think you will miss the boat, Kanmani. I received an RFE and My PD is 3.5 months after you :)

[Spectator]

EB-2 India:





August: Move upto "early" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)





September: Move upto "spring" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)



Hmm. Thanks Spec.

Looks like I am gonna miss the boat by 2-3 weeks difference. Frustrating!Kanmani,

Well, "spring" is as vague a term as "early summer", although it is slightly less optimistic.

I do agree that the DOS (CO) information to date is something of a mismatch to the dates that USCIS are issuing RFE for. As someone mentioned previously, perhaps USCIS are going overboard in ensuring that they can't be blamed for visa wastage. That would have been fine without the change in the I-693 policy.

I wouldn't give up hope entirely.

I thought the EB3-China comment was interesting. It suggests CO overreacted with such a large retrogression and that more visas within their allocation will be available this FY.

I have no reason to believe the information is inaccurate, but I would still like to see some confirmation on other sites. Given it is the AILA Conference and quite important news, the usual suspects should also be reporting it (but maybe early next week).

[Kanmani]

Mr.CO is playing with our emotions by choosing a different strategy to torture us. First time ever, I am into the information on seasons of this country.

My favorite season is FALL. (at Shenandoah National Park)

[Spectator]

Mr.CO is playing with our emotions by choosing a different strategy to torture us. First time ever, I am into the information on seasons of this country.

My favorite season is FALL. (at Shenandoah National Park)It's an interesting situation.

DOS are in charge of setting the Cut Off Dates, so it appears to be USCIS playing with people by hinting at later dates.

On the other hand, USCIS have complete control over the number of approvals (very few CP for EB1, EB2), so if USCIS don't approve other cases, they can force DOS' hand. June approvals on Trackitt are extremely low and I don't think that will improve from July to the end of the FY, when other case approvals will be subsumed by the flood of EB2-I approvals.

I can't disagree about Shenandoah National Park, but I think I've already completed most of the walks that can be done in a day's hiking.

[vizcard]

I can't disagree about Shenandoah National Park, but I think I've already completed most of the walks that can be done in a day's hiking.

I didn't know Spec and Kanmani are east coasters or maybe im being presumptuous.

[vyruss]

Unofficial Prediction of Visa Number Movement for the Rest of FY 2014 From AILA Conference From Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/)


06/20/2014: Unofficial Prediction of Visa Number Movement for the Rest of FY 2014 (September 30, 2014)

Reportedly, at the AILA National Conference, DOS sources disclosed the following rough predictions:



EB-2 India:





August: Move upto "early" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)





September: Move upto "spring" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)





This is like a triangulation job. Fragomen said it is going to be Early Summer 2009. The AILA conference says it is going to be Spring 2009. There is no mention of early or late Spring. Either way Mid June 2009 to October 2009 appears to be toast. So even if you get an RFE, I would delay it as much as possible before responding. This will at least ensure that your medicals will be valid next year when the dates will be made current for June to October 2009. NSC has also been very slow in sending out the physical copies of the RFEs. It should at least give us more time to respond and the hope in that is the new medicals will be valid for one more year when the dates will become current again.

If we crunch the numbers, there is very less likelihood for the dates to go beyond June 2009. If we assume a lot of denials, very low porting and ultra low new applications, we can stretch the dates a bit. Making everyone go through the medical tests on a hunch that the dates may move is an unrealistic expectation. I am trying to understand what kind of medical issues lets you stay in the country for several years on temporary visas (work or otherwise), but would actually become problematic once you become a permanent resident. The biggest thing with these tests seems to be the TB test with a lot of false positives. Even if you assume you have the TB and the worst variations of it, you were in the country for more than 10 years for Pete's sake. Why would it be tested during PR process and why not before? This whole approach seems to be coming out of someones rear (sorry if I am violating the forums standards here). Is the fear that the potential immigrant is going to become a burden because of his/her health issues? Are the same set of medical evaluations applied to all the immigrants to the country (both legal and illegal)?

[SenorMeow]

Just wanted to stop by (since it has been a while) and wish those counting down the hours and minutes to July 1 the very best! It's nice to see the experts still contributing here and discussions remain respectful and content focused, which is kind of ironic considering this post is off topic ;).

Here's my prediction: my "expert number crunching" tells me that there will be many happy posts in the weeks to come - some later than others, but definitely happier in tone the longer the wait. Sit tight and don't lose hope if your approval notification doesn't arrive immediately - mine woke me up on an early October morning last year after what felt like an eternity!

Good luck guys!!!

[aquatican]

This latest news is definitely a setback. With Early summer it was possible PD would move to July 1 2009 or later but Spring 2009 could mean anywhere from Mar to Jun 09. It seems like fine tuning predictions is almost an impossible task because even CO is playing it by year as can been seen from Fragomen and then AILA information.



This is like a triangulation job. Fragomen said it is going to be Early Summer 2009. The AILA conference says it is going to be Spring 2009. There is no mention of early or late Spring. Either way Mid June 2009 to October 2009 appears to be toast. So even if you get an RFE, I would delay it as much as possible before responding. This will at least ensure that your medicals will be valid next year when the dates will be made current for June to October 2009. NSC has also been very slow in sending out the physical copies of the RFEs. It should at least give us more time to respond and the hope in that is the new medicals will be valid for one more year when the dates will become current again.

If we crunch the numbers, there is very less likelihood for the dates to go beyond June 2009. If we assume a lot of denials, very low porting and ultra low new applications, we can stretch the dates a bit. Making everyone go through the medical tests on a hunch that the dates may move is an unrealistic expectation. I am trying to understand what kind of medical issues lets you stay in the country for several years on temporary visas (work or otherwise), but would actually become problematic once you become a permanent resident. The biggest thing with these tests seems to be the TB test with a lot of false positives. Even if you assume you have the TB and the worst variations of it, you were in the country for more than 10 years for Pete's sake. Why would it be tested during PR process and why not before? This whole approach seems to be coming out of someones rear (sorry if I am violating the forums standards here). Is the fear that the potential immigrant is going to become a burden because of his/her health issues? Are the same set of medical evaluations applied to all the immigrants to the country (both legal and illegal)?

[qesehmk]

Wow .. one thing went unnoticed by me.

First time in last 9 years TOTAL IMMIGRATION DROPPED.

What a bummer. At a time when the population is aging and US needs workforce replacement, that time we see total immigration dropping.

The DHS Yearbook Of Immigration Statistics for FY2013 (http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics) has been published.

Some figures from the tables.

Breakdown of EB1 by Sub-Category

EB1A - 25,0%
EB1B - 19.2%
EB1C - 55.7%

Note - Principals Only. Dependents are not broken down.

Principals & Dependents By Category (includes Principal)

EB1 - 2.40
EB2 - 2.02
EB3 - 2.14
EB4 - 1.48 (2.18 when SIJ are excluded)
EB5 - 2.74

[satwgl]

I got RFE on 06/05/2014 but so far I havent received the notice. I called USCIS and asked them to resend. My question now is, How many days will I get to respond to RFE? I hope the RFE is for medicals but not sure as of now.

Thanks in advance for your responses.

[gcpursuit]

Gurus ,

I have a question about the visa bulletin predictions. Does the predictions include FY15 numbers that may be given out in October like last year?

I have turned down a couple of opportunities because of the immigration situation in the last few months.I was holding on to little hope that my PD (6/29/2009) may get current and I could file my I-485 this year at least.

[aquatican]

i hope you are right sportsfan! :eek: With a PD of Jun 17 09. I hope i don't miss the boat this time. At least hoping to get an EAD.

[imdeng]

Q - GC issuance has been remarkably stable in last 10 years. Very minor variations. DHS calls the group LPR - Lawful Permanent Residents - and in the last 10 years, there has been ~1 million LPRs every year - give or take a little bit. The small decline in 2013 has mainly been because of drop in the biggest category for LPR - Immediate Relatives of Citizens.


2004 - 957,883
2005 1,122,257
2006 1,266,129
2007 1,052,415
2008 1,107,126
2009 1,130,818
2010 1,042,625
2011 1,062,040
2012 1,031,631
2013 - 990,553

Update: I looked at Citizenship data - and that seems to be increasing modestly. 2011: 694K, 2012: 757K, 2013: 780K. Interestingly, folks from China are getting a lot of GCs, but much fewer citizenships.



Wow .. one thing went unnoticed by me.

First time in last 9 years TOTAL IMMIGRATION DROPPED.

What a bummer. At a time when the population is aging and US needs workforce replacement, that time we see total immigration dropping.

[Spectator]

Q - GC issuance has been remarkably stable in last 10 years. Very minor variations. DHS calls the group LPR - Lawful Permanent Residents - and in the last 10 years, there has been ~1 million LPRs every year - give or take a little bit. The small decline in 2013 has mainly been because of drop in the biggest category for LPR - Immediate Relatives of Citizens.


2004 - 957,883
2005 1,122,257
2006 1,266,129
2007 1,052,415
2008 1,107,126
2009 1,130,818
2010 1,042,625
2011 1,062,040
2012 1,031,631
2013 - 990,553

Update: I looked at Citizenship data - and that seems to be increasing modestly. 2011: 694K, 2012: 757K, 2013: 780K. Interestingly, folks from China are getting a lot of GCs, but much fewer citizenships.Here's another 20 years of LPR numbers.

1984 --- 541,811 ----- 1994 --- 803,993
1985 --- 568,149 ----- 1995 --- 720,177
1986 --- 600,027 ----- 1996 --- 915,560
1987 --- 599,889 ----- 1997 --- 797,847
1988 --- 641,346 ----- 1998 --- 653,206
1989 - 1,090,172 ----- 1999 --- 644,787
1990 - 1,535,872 ----- 2000 --- 841,002
1991 - 1,826,595 ----- 2001 - 1,058,902
1992 --- 973,445 ----- 2002 - 1,059,356
1993 --- 903,916 ----- 2003 --- 703,542

I think some of the major shifts relate to Bills passed by Congress e.g. The Immigration Reform and Control Act, or IRCA, of 1986, The Immigration Act of 1990, The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act, or IIRAIRA, of 1996, The Legal Immigration Family Equity, or LIFE, Act and LIFE Act Amendments of 2000. I'm not sure there has been any Bills of significance since then that have passed into law.

In particular, The Immigration Act of 1990 (IMMACT90) was signed into law as P.L. 101-649 by President Bush on November 29, 1990. It constituted a major revision of the Immigration and Nationality Act, which remained the basic immigration law. Its primary focus was the numerical limits and preference system regulating permanent legal immigration. Besides legal immigration, the eight-title Act dealt with many other aspects of immigration law ranging from nonimmigrants to criminal aliens to naturalization. This Bill set the numerical limits that we know today. The Immigration Act of 1990 increased the total immigration limit to 700,000 and increased visas by 40 percent. Family reunification was retained as the main immigration criterion, with significant increases in employment-related immigration. The 1990 Act set the numbers and Categories for both FB and EB that remain to this day.(culled from various sources)

The figures by Year from 1820 to 2013 for LPR are in this excel file (http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2013/LPR/table1.xls) from DHS

[luckycub]

Unbelievably Quiet Today.

[imdeng]

Yup. Calm before the storm. We are only a few days away from the BIG visa bulletin.

Unbelievably Quiet Today.

[imdeng]

Question for Spec and other folks intimately familiar with trackitt data: Is the slowdown in approvals still continuing? Spec had mentioned that since USCIS seems to have shifted much of their manpower towards sending RFEs to EB2I, approvals had slowed down for other categories. This, of course, has possibility of positive impact on spillover to EB2I. Now that bulk of RFEs seem to have been issued, has the approvals pace picked up again?

Follow up question for thought - in previous years, did EB2-ROW and EB1 approvals slow down in July/Aug/Sept when USCIS needs to process a large number of EB2I cases? If that is yes - then combining with the existing slowdown for RFE, USCIS might not have much capacity to do too much more than take care of EB2I RFE and approvals. This would make USCIS enter FY2015 with larger inventory for EB1 and EB2ROW - and help SO in FY2014.

[Spectator]

News for progress of both EB2-China and EB3-China in coming months due to the possible availablility of spare visas from FB-China. This would be similar to South Korea each year. I don't know the original source, otherwise I would quote it. This came from http://www.mitbbs.com and was in English.


Association (AILA) Annual Conference and have good news to share with our clients.

At the conference, officials from the Department of State Visa Office stated that they anticipate “significant movement” in the Visa Bulletin cut-off dates for the China employment-based second preference categories (EB-2) in the upcoming months. Visa Office representatives indicated two reasons for this optimistic outlook: 1) excessive levels of demand in EB-2 category have subsided, and 2) there are several hundred unused visas in the family-based preference categories. To ensure that all immigrant visa numbers available to China in this fiscal year are used, the Visa Office plans to rollover the unused visas allocated to the family-based preference categories and to make them available to the employment-based preference categories. This is a routine procedure that the Visa Office applies to ensure that visa numbers are not wasted before this current fiscal year ends in September.

We do caution that the above is only a prediction from the Visa Office. Experience has shown that numerous factors, such as unexpected surge in demand or faster I-485 processing by the USCIS, may arise that can affect anticipated movements in the Visa Bulletin. Our firm will continue to monitor the Visa Bulletin each month and will notify clients when their priority dates become current.

Edit:- This appears to be the source (http://www.mitbbs.com/ym_article/LiuLaw/31076497.html).

and


United States State Department Projects Advancement for EB-3 China

June 24, 2014

Executive Summary

State Department officials project that EB-3 China could advance significantly in the remaining months of the fiscal year, although exact cut -off dates will remain unknown until the next State Department Visa Bulletin is published in early July.


The priority date cut-off for EB-3 China could advance significantly in August 2014, in contrast to earlier projections which suggested that the category would remain static and possibly retrogress during the remainder of fiscal year 2014. The State Department anticipates that unused family-based immigrant visa numbers could be available to be applied to the EB-3 China backlog. Due to unpredictable fluctuations in allocation of immigrant visa numbers, however, the exact cut-off date will not be known until the August Visa Bulletin is published in early July.

The projections were presented during the annual American Immigration Lawyers Association conference late last week.

Edit:- The source of this quote appears to be Fragomen (http://www.fragomen.com/ourfirm/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=NewsDetail&news=9c44eaea-51b1-4c29-bcbc-bf6dfcbc1e91&RSS=true).

It makes sense that both EB2 and EB3 would benefit, since the "spare" visas should be prorated to the various EB Categories.

I don't believe the news has any impact on the movement for EB3-I. Extra numbers available to China will, however, reduce the allocation available to EB3-ROW, since it does not increase the actual numbers available to EB3. Similarly, it could possibly reduce the numbers available to EB2-I. It does not sound like we are talking about more than a few hundred across both Categories, so the result will be negligible.

PS Theoretically, CO might be able to do something similar with India. I confess i don't know how that might work, when India will exceed 7% use anyway with high EB1 use and spillover. It may be the reason that EB2-I received somewhat more approvals last year than spillover alone would have allowed. I admit to being a little confused, since the predicted movement for EB3-I is very poor and theoretically, they would also benefit. Possibly Indian FB approvals have increased this FY.

[Spectator]

Question for Spec and other folks intimately familiar with trackitt data: Is the slowdown in approvals still continuing? Spec had mentioned that since USCIS seems to have shifted much of their manpower towards sending RFEs to EB2I, approvals had slowed down for other categories. This, of course, has possibility of positive impact on spillover to EB2I. Now that bulk of RFEs seem to have been issued, has the approvals pace picked up again?

Follow up question for thought - in previous years, did EB2-ROW and EB1 approvals slow down in July/Aug/Sept when USCIS needs to process a large number of EB2I cases? If that is yes - then combining with the existing slowdown for RFE, USCIS might not have much capacity to do too much more than take care of EB2I RFE and approvals. This would make USCIS enter FY2015 with larger inventory for EB1 and EB2ROW - and help SO in FY2014.According to Trackitt, this months approvals are about 40% lower than the corresponding time last month. That is probably slightly exaggerated by the almost total absence of any EB3-WW approvals.

In general, the real slowdown in approvals is in September, but that might also be as a result of September being a "short" month due to visas for the FY running out. September is generally something like a 2 week month. You can look at some of the monthly Trackitt monthly totals for various Categories / Countries in this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011).

[imdeng]

Very interesting. Just the fact that China, which used to be such a large consumer of visa numbers, has fallen behind the 7% threshold, is significant news. AFAIU, This doesn't affect EB3I since they were not going to get any more than the usual quota anyways. However, this will take some precious numbers away from EB2I since EB2C will get more than the annual quota now. Essentially, this does not change overall EB allocation at all - just allows EB-C to exceed their annual quotas in both EB2 and EB3 categories so that FB+EB reaches 7%. Am having a hard time believing that China is running below 7% EB+FB level - will have to look up the numbers.

About such a scenario for India, I don't think India will be below 7% (EB+FB) anytime soon.


...
I don't believe the news has any impact on the movement for EB3-I. Extra numbers available to China will, however, reduce the allocation available to EB3-ROW, since it does not increase the actual numbers available to EB3. Similarly, it could possibly reduce the numbers available to EB2-I. It does not sound like we are talking about more than a few hundred across both Categories, so the result will be negligible.

PS Theoretically, CO might be able to do something similar with India. I confess i don't know how that might work, when India will exceed 7% use anyway with high EB1 use and spillover. It may be the reason that EB2-I received somewhat more approvals last year than spillover alone would have allowed. I admit to being a little confused, since the predicted movement for EB3-I is very poor and theoretically, they would also benefit. Possibly Indian FB approvals have increased this FY.

[Spectator]

Very interesting. Just the fact that China, which used to be such a large consumer of visa numbers, has fallen behind the 7% threshold, is significant news. AFAIU, This doesn't affect EB3I since they were not going to get any more than the usual quota anyways. However, this will take some precious numbers away from EB2I since EB2C will get more than the annual quota now. Essentially, this does not change overall EB allocation at all - just allows EB-C to exceed their annual quotas in both EB2 and EB3 categories so that FB+EB reaches 7%. Am having a hard time believing that China is running below 7% EB+FB level - will have to look up the numbers.

About such a scenario for India, I don't think India will be below 7% (EB+FB) anytime soon.imdeng,

The figures for China last year were:

------- Actual ---- 7%
EB ---- 20,078 -- 11,093
FB ---- 13,732 -- 15,820

Total - 33,810 -- 26,913

[qesehmk]

While this is a good news for EB2/3 C, this is somewhat a bad news for India and possibly for EB3ROW because the visas from FB are rolled over to EB only next year - not in the same year.

So basically EB2C is going to eat into the SOFAD that otherwise EB2I would get all and EB3C will do the same with EB3ROW numbers as far as current year is concerned.

Sorry folks for the bad news. I hope I am wrong.

News for progress of both EB2-China and EB3-China in coming months due to the possible availablility of spare visas from FB-China. This would be similar to South Korea each year. I don't know the original source, otherwise I would quote it. This came from http://www.mitbbs.com and was in English.



and



It makes sense that both EB2 and EB3 would benefit, since the "spare" visas should be prorated to the various EB Categories.

I don't believe the news has any impact on the movement for EB3-I. Extra numbers available to China will, however, reduce the allocation available to EB3-ROW, since it does not increase the actual numbers available to EB3. Similarly, it could possibly reduce the numbers available to EB2-I. It does not sound like we are talking about more than a few hundred across both Categories, so the result will be negligible.

PS Theoretically, CO might be able to do something similar with India. I confess i don't know how that might work, when India will exceed 7% use anyway with high EB1 use and spillover. It may be the reason that EB2-I received somewhat more approvals last year than spillover alone would have allowed. I admit to being a little confused, since the predicted movement for EB3-I is very poor and theoretically, they would also benefit. Possibly Indian FB approvals have increased this FY.

[Spectator]

While this is a good news for EB2/3 C, this is somewhat a bad news for India and possibly for EB3ROW because the visas from FB are rolled over to EB only next year - not in the same year.

So basically EB2C is going to eat into the SOFAD that otherwise EB2I would get all and EB3C will do the same with EB3ROW numbers as far as current year is concerned.

Sorry folks for the bad news. I hope I am wrong.Q,

I believe you are correct, but the impact should be very low.


1) excessive levels of demand in EB-2 category have subsided, and

2) there are several hundred unused visas in the family-based preference categories.

(1) will come from the EB2-C initial allocation.

(2) mentions a few hundred visas, which will be split across EB2 and EB3 at worst.

While every visa number may count, it isn't too earth shattering for EB2-I or EB3-ROW. In EB3, Philippines has a much larger effect, numbering thousands rather than hundreds.

My perspective anyway.

[qesehmk]

Spec - you don't have to be so much guarded!! We should speak our mind. I especially value your thoughts.

Yes I agree with you with a caution that last year the under usage in FB-C was 4K. So I hope "a few hundreds" is what we will see this year.

Funnily even FB-I has always been under utilizing their 7% limit (not quota!). Sometimes I feel that the way VO deals with all these quotas is discretionary at best and discriminatory at worst. The reality probably is somewhere in the middle.


Q,

I believe you are correct, but the impact should be very low.



(1) will come from the EB2-C initial allocation.

(2) mentions a few hundred visas, which will be split across EB2 and EB3 at worst.

While every visa number may count, it isn't too earth shattering for EB2-I or EB3-ROW. In EB3, Philippines has a much larger effect, numbering thousands rather than hundreds.

My perspective anyway.

[imdeng]

First column total should be 20,078+13,372 = 33,450 - right? Well above the FB+EB 7% threshold of 26,913. Have their demand come down enough to fall below 26,913? Perhaps it has fallen below by just a few hundreds - hence the disclaimer in the original communication.


imdeng,

The figures for China last year were:

------- Actual ---- 7%
EB ---- 20,078 -- 11,093
FB ---- 13,732 -- 15,820

Total - 26,839 -- 26,913

[imdeng]

I believe the 7% rule plays out if the country is not backlogged individually (i.e. outside the ROW). Now that EB3C has matched EB3ROW, they can lay claim to extra visas from EB3ROW allocation just like Phillippines and South Korea. I am not sure how this works in EB2C.

...Funnily even FB-I has always been under utilizing their 7% limit (not quota!). Sometimes I feel that the way VO deals with all these quotas is discretionary at best and discriminatory at worst. The reality probably is somewhere in the middle.

[qesehmk]

I am not aware of such a law. Situations where law doesn't say anything are left to DoS' discretion. And my judgement is that DoS uses discretion in a way that is not quite clear. e.g. they didn't use the same discretion last year when FB C under utilized the limit.


I believe the 7% rule plays out if the country is not backlogged individually (i.e. outside the ROW).

[Spectator]

First column total should be 20,078+13,372 = 33,450 - right? Well above the FB+EB 7% threshold of 26,913. Have their demand come down enough to fall below 26,913? Perhaps it has fallen below by just a few hundreds - hence the disclaimer in the original communication.imdeng,

Oops!

Thanks for pointing that out. I somehow managed to add the EB1-EB3 total to FB rather than all EB. I have corrected the original post.

EB5-C received 6,807 Fall Across and EB1C received 3,077 Fall Across, allowing them to exceed 7%.

EB2-C and EB3-C also received slightly over 7%, but EB as a whole also overshot the allocation by 2,803.

As reference, India received 48,294 visas (FB 12,996 and EB 35,298).

[Spectator]

Spec - you don't have to be so much guarded!! We should speak our mind. I especially value your thoughts.

Yes I agree with you with a caution that last year the under usage in FB-C was 4K. So I hope "a few hundreds" is what we will see this year.

Funnily even FB-I has always been under utilizing their 7% limit (not quota!). Sometimes I feel that the way VO deals with all these quotas is discretionary at best and discriminatory at worst. The reality probably is somewhere in the middle.Q,

I was not being guarded - I just don't see it as a big deal. It won't alter my estimates at all.

EB2-I did receive more visas last year than spillover alone allowed. That would have allowed only 13,263 (including the initial allocation). In fact, EB2-I received 17,193 visas, a difference of 3,930. FB-I was only 2,824 below the maximum allowed.

I think they did pretty well personally.

[qesehmk]

I was referring to "my perspective anyway" !

Lets hope it is not a big deal. But the fact it was worthwhile to mention (as opposed to thousands when s korea uses and nothing is mentioned) makes me feel it may not be as small as a few hundreds.

I didn't understand your calculation of 13.2 vs 17.2K for EB2I last year.

Are you referring to the fact that although the quota was 156K EB as a whole received 161K?


Q,

I was not being guarded - I just don't see it as a big deal. It won't alter my estimates at all.

EB2-I did receive more visas last year than spillover alone allowed. That would have allowed only 13,263 (including the initial allocation). In fact, EB2-I received 17,193 visas, a difference of 3,930. FB-I was only 2,824 below the maximum allowed.

I think they did pretty well personally.

[Spectator]

I believe the 7% rule plays out if the country is not backlogged individually (i.e. outside the ROW). Now that EB3C has matched EB3ROW, they can lay claim to extra visas from EB3ROW allocation just like Phillippines and South Korea. I am not sure how this works in EB2C.Q and imdeng,

I would refer you to this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2444-BACKGROUND-INFORMATION-ON-FREQUENTLY-MISUNDERSTOOD-POINTS-From-April-2010-VB) in FACTS & DATA for CO's own explanation of the South Korea situation.

imdeng,

You are correct about EB3 - extra use by China would further reduce the EB3-ROW allocation, since there is no Fall Down to EB3, all 7% Countries use their entire allocation and the total available to EB3 as a whole is a fixed number.

For EB2, it is not quite the same situation.

Yes, extra use by EB2-C would theoretically eat into the EB2-ROW allocation of 28,828 within the overall initial allocation for EB2 of 40,040. If there were no Fall Down (or Fall Across from Mexico or Philippines), the situation would be the same as EB3.

However, since no Country within EB2-ROW remotely approaches 7% use, those Countries would have first call on any Fall Down or Fall Across if they still had demand. The numbers are only available to Countries such as EB2-C and EB2-I that have reached their 7% limit after demand from Countries yet to reach the 7% limit has been satisfied.

The net result of extra EB2-C use would be to reduce Spillover available to EB2-I.

e.g If EB2-ROW had demand for 28,828 and EB2-C could use 300 more visas. The EB2-ROW allocation would initially drop to 28,528 and they would be 300 short of demand if only 40,040 visas were available and C, I, M & P all used their maximum allocation and there was no Fall Down from EB1.

EB2-ROW could get the extra 300 visas either from Fall Across from EB2-M or EB2-P within EB2 OR from Fall Down from EB1. Either way, the Spillover available to EB2-I would be reduced by the 300 extra visas that EB2-C were able to use. Only if total spillover was less than 300 would EB2-ROW fail to satisfy their demand, but spillover to EB2-I would be zero in that case.

[qesehmk]

Spec hope you don't mind me asking for an explanation in light of the info you are pointing to; what's different this year for China compared to 2013 when 4K were unused that VO was compelled to issue a statement on the topic this year but not last?

[Spectator]

I didn't understand your calculation of 13.2 vs 17.2K for EB2I last year.

Are you referring to the fact that although the quota was 156K EB as a whole received 161K?I'll spell it out in more detail.

Fall Down was composed of :

EB1 - 6,263
EB4 - 4,805
EB5 - 2,687

Total Fall Down - 13,755

Fall Across in EB2 was

EB2-M - 1,455 Gave Fall Across
EB2-P - (1,267) Still stayed within overall 7% EB and FB limit
EB2-ROW - (3,852) Required more approvals than initial allocation (due to previous FY retrogression)

Total Fall Across - (3,664)

i.e. EB2-WW used 3,664 of the 13,755 Fall Down.

Net Spillover available - 10,091

Theoretical maximum SOFAD for EB2-I equals 10,091 spillover plus 3,172 initial allocation = 13,263 total approvals.

Actual EB2-I approvals were 17,193.

EB2-I received 3,930 more approvals than spillover alone justified. Part of that would have been due to the over use of the total EB allocation.

[qesehmk]

Spec - thanks and sorry to have you do this. I could've done it just as much easily.

I understand and agree. But dont you think that kind of proves my point that DOS pretty much sometimes works arbitrarily (from our stand point).

In this particular case the entire EB category used 5K more than really available and then majority was received by EB2I and some by EB3I.

On another note - I really don't think DoS particularly did any favor to Indian. At least not until they actually start doing spillovers on a quarterly basis.


I'll spell it out in more detail.

Fall Down was composed of :

EB1 - 6,263
EB4 - 4,805
EB5 - 2,687

Total Fall Down - 13,755

Fall Across in EB2 was

EB2-M - 1,455 Gave Fall Across
EB2-P - (1,267) Still stayed within overall 7% EB and FB limit
EB2-ROW - (3,852) Required more approvals than initial allocation (due to previous FY retrogression)

Total Fall Across - (3,664)

i.e. EB2-WW used 3,664 of the 13,755 Fall Down.

Net Spillover available - 10,091

Theoretical maximum SOFAD for EB2-I equals 10,091 spillover plus 3,172 initial allocation = 13,263 total approvals.

Actual EB2-I approvals were 17,193.

EB2-I received 3,930 more approvals than spillover alone justified. Part of that would have been due to the over use of the total EB allocation.

[Spectator]

Spec hope you don't mind me asking for an explanation in light of the info you are pointing to; what's different this year for China compared to 2013 when 4K were unused that VO was compelled to issue a statement on the topic this year but not last?Q,

I don't know. I think only CO himself could answer your question. I can't.

Here's some ideas (but they are hardly more than a guess).

Maybe it is simply that he feels he has a sufficient idea of China FB use for the FY sufficiently early to make the decision to reallocate the numbers.

That might also point to him being satisfied that he has FB use under control and that they will use their allocation this year.

Clearly CO did not have control over FB usage over the last 2 years given their under use of their allocation. He didn't push the FB CODs forward as corrective action, so he must have thought use would be higher than it actually was. Under those circumstances he may not have had the confidence to make such a decision.

I think he needs a fairly high level of confidence to even consider reallocating FB numbers to the EB component for the 7% calculation. Personally, I would not do it if the margin was only counted in the hundreds. That's within the margin for Consular returns.

Maybe the decision is the mark of some successful lobbying by the Chinese community behind the scenes. They have been extremely unhappy and have made it known to CO through the channels they have available, judging by the Chinese forums. Perhaps he is throwing them a bone of a few hundred extra visas. They also feel they are being discriminated against, rightly or wrongly. It's a matter of perspective. :)

As I alluded to earlier, I don't fully understand the interplay of the different laws involved and which take precedence, The order of application would give different results.

A case such as South Korea is simple - they use well under the 7% combined limit. It's not even close - a matter of around 10k. There is no complication of actually reaching the 7% limit or of Fall Across and Fall Down to consider. The decision to let SK EB Categories use extra numbers from FB is a complete "no-brainer".

[Spectator]

Spec - thanks and sorry to have you do this. I could've done it just as much easily.

I understand and agree. But dont you think that kind of proves my point that DOS pretty much sometimes works arbitrarily (from our stand point).

In this particular case the entire EB category used 5K more than really available and then majority was received by EB2I and some by EB3I.

On another note - I really don't think DoS particularly did any favor to Indian. At least not until they actually start doing spillovers on a quarterly basis.I think it points to a fairly poor job being carried out by DOS over the last two years. It is shocking that any FB visas should be wasted when all Categories are retrogressed.

I think you are being a little blinkered and forgetting the occasions and interpretations that have favored EB2-I. I think we have previously agreed to disagree about quarterly spillovers. Let's leave it at that.

[qesehmk]

I think it points to a fairly poor job being carried out by DOS over the last two years. It is shocking that any FB visas should be wasted when all Categories are retrogressed.

I think you are being a little blinkered and forgetting the occasions and interpretations that have favored EB2-I. I think we have previously agreed to disagree about quarterly spillovers. Let's leave it at that.
:) Spec - touche on blinkers!
But possibly if you waited 8 years because of the 7% rule and then perhaps you too would develop blinkers!

[Spectator]

From ILW.COM Blogs (http://blogs.ilw.com/entry.php?8117-VISA-PROJECTIONS-FOR-THE-NEXT-FEW-MONTHS) or the Musillo site (http://www.musillo.com/2014/06/visa-projections-for-next-few-months.html).

It's a little different (and more pessimistic) than the Oh article. I'll continue to look for other attorneys views.


VISA PROJECTIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS

06-24-2014

by Chris Musillo

MU Lawyers were at AILA’s annual convention in Boston last week. In discussing the Visa Bulletin with several attorneys, and piecing together some information from DOS officials, here are our unofficial projections for the remainder of Fiscal Year 2014, which ends September 30, 2014.

EB-1


EB-1 is expected to stay current through the Fiscal Year.

EB-2


China: Chinese EB-2 numbers could progress, although it does not appear that it will move too quickly.


India: Indian EB-2 numbers jumped dramatically between May and June 2014, progressing nearly four years to September 2008. Our sense is that the Indian EB-2 number will continue to stay in 2008, and will continue to progress because the DOS does not want a single visa to go unused in this category. The number may temporarily become unavailable in September 2014, which is common.


All Other: All other EB-2 should remain Current for the remainder of the Fiscal Year.

EB-3


China: Chinese EB-3 numbers have been on a wild ride this year. They were into 2012 for much of the year before a massive retrogression in June. There is a sense that the DOS is unsure just how many numbers are needed. MU Law’s read is that the number will progress this summer, perhaps several years. Again, the DOS is trying to insure that all numbers in this category are used.


India: The DOS has this category accurately projected. As a result India EB-3 will continue its very slow progression.


Philippines: It seems unlikely that this number will get into 2010. That having been said, the number should progress steadily in FY 2015.


All Other: The DOS tapped the breaks on this number in June, stalling it at April 2011. MU Law’s sense is that the number will progress before becoming temporarily unavailable later in the Summer.

[Spectator]

But OH reported after the same AILA conference that the numbers will jump into 2009! Corroborated by Fragoman and all these RFEs too point to such a movement.

Many a times, lawyers are not very good at predictions. Look no further than Ron Gotcher who has no idea of how to predict - either that, or he willingly blatantly misinforms.Don't shoot the messenger!

I think it says that there was no session where a DOS official stood up and said "these are the projections". In the comments, a question was asked and answered today.




Pisu - 06-25-2014 11:13 AM

For EB-2 India, what is the prediction? Will the current dates move up to Aug'2009?


CMusillo - 06-25-2014 12:53 PM

Our sense is that the Indian EB-2 number will continue to stay in 2008. It would not be a total surprise if it moved into 2009, although I don't think it will get as far as August 09.

They stick to 2008, with a concession that it could move into 2009.

Funny how different people interpret the same information.


Personally, I would be more than very surprised if the Cut Off Dates do not move into 2009.

[vizcard]

They stick to 2008, with a concession that it could move into 2009.


Typical lawyer speak :) Glad they are not doctors. You don't have cancer.. but I won't be surprised if you did.

PS: I'm being dramatic. This is not meant to be a lawyer bashing post.

[qesehmk]

Nobody has a crystal ball. Neither I do.

But for what it's worth let me share my "opinion". I think I feel very confident that the dates will "temporarily" move beyond March 2009.

[ksur23]

I hope this firm is grossly wrong. Fragomen is a reputable firm and they called right last year and hopefully their call this year (early summer 09) proves to be prescient again.

With such high interest in EB2I I wonder if law firms realize their words are very closely scrutinized.


Spec, this is an exact quote from Oh's website:

"Reportedly, at the AILA National Conference, DOS sources disclosed the following rough predictions:

EB-2 India:
August: Move upto "early" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)
September: Move upto "spring 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)
"

Fragoman has a very similar update with almost the same exact wording. Notice very specifically that Oh gives an exact progression of movement and Fragoman mentions "early spring".

I don't understand how this lawyer is "sensing" something so pessimistic from the exact same conference. If each one is giving his/her own interpretation, then they are very wildly differing to say the least.

Like Kanmani, this is now starting to play with my head (although my PD is still in 2008).

[MATT2012]

With a 2008 PD, one should not be worried, may be the first quarter of 2009 should not be worried. That is my opinion.

But why those RFEs until October 2009 ? I still don't have an answer?? Are they planning to carry forward many cases..

Getting back to the Attorney leads on PD movement, every lead is a lead, be it good or bad. But I do think that the latest one is very conservative.

[Spectator]

With a 2008 PD, one should not be worried, may be the first quarter of 2009 should not be worried. That is my opinion.

But why those RFEs until October 2009 ? I still don't have an answer?? Are they planning to carry forward many cases..

Getting back to the Attorney leads on PD movement, every lead is a lead, be it good or bad. But I do think that the latest one is very conservative.Matt,

Nice to see a post from you.

I agree with you about the RFEs issued to late October 2009.

I can't see the Cut Off Dates moving that far this FY, so they won't be approved from the FY2014 allocation.

I can't see the Cut Off Dates moving that far in early FY2015 either. If they did, too many cases would be eligible to be approved for the number of visas CO would have available at that time.

I can't see the dates in October 2014 moving past the date set for the September 2014 VB. IMO, the approvals in early FY2015 will just be mopping up cases that could not be approved within the FY2014 limits.

[vedu]

I think what he means by this is the EB2 India dates will continue to stay in 2008 in the next year. There will not be any severe retrogression once this year ends like in the previous years. That's just my take!
From ILW.COM Blogs (http://blogs.ilw.com/entry.php?8117-VISA-PROJECTIONS-FOR-THE-NEXT-FEW-MONTHS) or the Musillo site (http://www.musillo.com/2014/06/visa-projections-for-next-few-months.html).

VISA PROJECTIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS

06-24-2014

by Chris Musillo

MU Lawyers were at AILA’s annual convention in Boston last week. In discussing the Visa Bulletin with several attorneys, and piecing together some information from DOS officials, here are our unofficial projections for the remainder of Fiscal Year 2014, which ends September 30, 2014.


India: Indian EB-2 numbers jumped dramatically between May and June 2014, progressing nearly four years to September 2008. Our sense is that the Indian EB-2 number will continue to stay in 2008, and will continue to progress because the DOS does not want a single visa to go unused in this category. The number may temporarily become unavailable in September 2014, which is common.
[/LIST]

[qesehmk]

vedu

I differ because as long as EB3I dates are behind EB2I there will be EB3I portings happening. And we have seen that the level is generally 3-5K per year which is more than sufficient to retrogress the dates.

So the new EB2I dates after Oct 2014 may not be in 2004 ... they could move into 2005. But unfortunately I have a strong suspicion that Nov 2014-Jun 2015 EB2I dates will be retrogressed again and the retrogression could very well be similar to 2014.

[vedu]

Q,

I understand your point. But who knows...the future portings may be manageable with the yearly quota and they may be able to keep the dates, say in January 2008. We will see!!

The statement from Musillo does not make sense otherwise. When we all know for a FACT that the dates are going to move to 2009, he mentions that the dates will continue to stay in 2008.


vedu

I differ because as long as EB3I dates are behind EB2I there will be EB3I portings happening. And we have seen that the level is generally 3-5K per year which is more than sufficient to retrogress the dates.

So the new EB2I dates after Oct 2014 may not be in 2004 ... they could move into 2005. But unfortunately I have a strong suspicion that Nov 2014-Jun 2015 EB2I dates will be retrogressed again and the retrogression could very well be similar to 2014.

[Spectator]

vedu

I differ because as long as EB3I dates are behind EB2I there will be EB3I portings happening. And we have seen that the level is generally 3-5K per year which is more than sufficient to retrogress the dates.

So the new EB2I dates after Oct 2014 may not be in 2004 ... they could move into 2005. But unfortunately I have a strong suspicion that Nov 2014-Jun 2015 EB2I dates will be retrogressed again and the retrogression could very well be similar to 2014. Q,

I agree.

The author clarified that the 2008 comment related to FY2014. The temporarily unavailable comment just seems to refer to the fact that visa numbers generally run out before September 30 every year.

I agree with your porting comment. The April Inventory showed 27.4k EB3-I AOS cases alone with a PD between 2004 and July 2007. Including CP, that is nearer 30.4k potential cases still eligible to port and does not include any cases with a PD of August 2007 onwards who would have to file an I-485 for the first time.

[vedu]

Spec,

There may be double counting going on between EB2I and EB3I. Next inventory will give us a clear picture. Also, if there are too many EB2 ROW cases waiting to be processed and if USCIS processes cases as per RD, then it will take several months for porters to make any significant impact.


Q,

I agree.

The author clarified that the 2008 comment related to FY2014. The temporarily unavailable comment just seems to refer to the fact that visa numbers generally run out before September 30 every year.

I agree with your porting comment. The April Inventory showed 27.4k EB3-I AOS cases alone with a PD between 2004 and July 2007. Including CP, that is nearer 30.4k potential cases still eligible to port and does not include any cases with a PD of August 2007 onwards who would have to file an I-485 for the first time.

[qesehmk]

Q,

I understand your point. But who knows...the future portings may be manageable with the yearly quota and they may be able to keep the dates, say in January 2008. We will see!!


Yes if CO wants it that way then probably that's how he will do it. If he chooses to do that then IMHO the dates could very well be early 2009 instead of 2008.

Just that in last few years CO has chosen to do severe retrogression and then move dates only when there is SOFAD available.

[Spectator]

Spec,

There may be double counting going on between EB2I and EB3I. Next inventory will give us a clear picture. Also, if there are too many EB2 ROW cases waiting to be processed and if USCIS processes cases as per RD, then it will take several months for porters to make any significant impact.I agree, but you can remove as many as you want for those reasons and still be left with a huge number of potential porters in the future.

A delay in processing the porters might help FY2014, but it only pushes their numbers into FY2015, which increases the likelihood of retrogression being necessary and how severe it needs to be. Porters who already have an I-485 filed, need only convert the case to an EB2 basis to be approved. The headwind to that at the moment is the lack of evidence that these cases are receiving an RFE for a new Medical. Until they receive and respond to that, their cases cannot be approved.

The more likely scenario IMO is that the Cut Off Date in September will be set well beyond the the number of visas left for FY2014, leaving many cases that are current to be pushed into FY2015.

The Cut Off date will probably be maintained for October 2014 and sufficient EB2-I approvals will be made in October 2014 from non-porting cases who missed out in FY2014 to force retrogression in November 2014 (December 2014 at latest). At that point, the Cut Off Date for EB2-I will retrogress steeply, because CO will not have any more "guaranteed" numbers for EB2-I until later in the FY.

[eb2visa]

It may be possible as some predicting, the date might move to 10/2009. fingers crossed.

Gurus any idea?


TSC - PD 09/2009. That is why i was saying, i don't expect to be current based on the projections from many people.
I can't find much information online on 485 cases with this kind of status update. Most of the cases with this kind of updates i find online are 130. My wife (dependent only) received EVL RFE during last year mass RFEs (which was strange too). And my lawyer had responded that EVL for a dependent is not possible.
BTW, thanks for your reply.

[Spectator]

I have updated the PERM section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) of FACTS & DATA with the provisional figures for Q3 FY2014.

I will update them when DOL release the official FY2014 Q3 Disclosure Data, although that will not be for some time.

Despite an extremely slow last 2 days, Q3 FY2014 had 21.1k certifications, compared to 17.1k in Q2 and 9.1k in Q1. India accounted for about 56% of certifications (unchanged).

Certifications for FY2014 to date are 47.3k, compared to 35.2k for all of FY2013. In FY2013, at the end of Q3, certifications were 27.9k, so certifications are 70% higher than the corresponding time last FY.

Comparing just Q2 & Q3 certifications, FY2014 is 140% higher than FY2013 (38.2k vs 15.7k). ROW/M/P are c. 165% higher, India is c. 120% higher, with China c. 215% higher.

[eb2visa]

Q, Spec, Viz, other Gurus can you shed some light on this. Is the date going to move to 10/2009? Why the status changes and approve message?


It may be possible as some predicting, the date might move to 10/2009. fingers crossed.

Gurus any idea?

[Spectator]

Q, Spec, Viz, other Gurus can you shed some light on this. Is the date going to move to 10/2009? Why the status changes and approve message?eb2visa,

I do not believe the Cut Off Dates will move to cover October 2009 cases in FY2014 or the beginning of FY2015.

[eb2visa]

Any idea what this status change could be? is it could be an RFE?

Even if it is a RFE, it is still interesting as they are issuing RFEs for 2009 guys. Did any one heard people after Oct 2009 getting RFEs?


eb2visa,

I do not believe the Cut Off Dates will move to cover October 2009 cases in FY2014 or the beginning of FY2015.

[suninphx]

eb2visa,

I do not believe the Cut Off Dates will move to cover October 2009 cases in FY2014 or the beginning of FY2015.

Approvals also seem to be extremely slow. Personally I was expecting much more approvals today. Of course, it's very early and I hope approvals pick up soon. Currently, cases filed in FY2013 seem to be getting approved. (based on trackitt).

Spec- how many approvals do we expect on a day (on trackitt) to indicate robust trend?

[Spectator]

Approvals also seem to be extremely slow. Personally I was expecting much more approvals today. Of course, it's very early and I hope approvals pick up soon. Currently, cases filed in FY2013 seem to be getting approved. (based on trackitt).

Spec- how many approvals do we expect on a day (on trackitt) to indicate robust trend?Of the 5 I know about (4 updated in Trackitt), 4 are NSC and 1 is CSC.

I think TSC generally release their approvals later, so it may be deceptive.

I fully expect to see 20-60 Trackitt approvals per day as last year after a few days.

[Spectator]

I know some people will be interested in this.

Both from the last published USCIS data and from Trackitt data, the split between NSC and TSC for EB cases is approx. 40 : 60.

That was also the ratio of approvals for EB2-I during October/November 2013.

Despite TSC slow start, they will catch up.

[qesehmk]

So here I am going to be thinking loud - not that I know anything with any certainty.

The question - will the dates really move into 2009 Oct?

I think that if the backlog that got cleared this year was about Jun 2008 to lets say March 2009 (if that!) then that's 9 months worth movement.

So realistically we can expect a similar movement in 2015 (actually a bit less given that ROW PERM/140 approvals are kind of artificially held back at this time.

Thus adding 9 months to Mar 2009 gives us Dec 2009.

The question is - going into next year does CO have enough cases on his hand that he doesn't have to do a last minute maneuver? I think the answer is yes. The last time EB2I dates were current was as high as May 2010 (if my memory serves me correct).

So IMHO there is sufficient inventory including some buffer that CO has that he doesn't have to move the dates forward in fear of lack of EB2I demand.

However if CO just wants to be nice to EB2I then he can and he will move the dates to Oct 2009 or even beyond! Into 2011. Why not?

So long story short - if dates move beyond Jun 2009 - EB2I folks owe CO a thank you note because he would be doing it when not really necessary from his standpoint.

[Spectator]

Q,

Nice to hear your mid range thoughts.

Also thinking out loud - it's a long way away yet and much can change.


So here I am going to be thinking loud - not that I know anything with any certainty.

The question - will the dates really move into 2009 Oct?

I think that if the backlog that got cleared this year was about Jun 2008 to lets say March 2009 (if that!) then that's 9 months worth movement.
I would agree. Wherever the actual final Cut Off Date lands the net clearance will do well to reach March 2009.


So realistically we can expect a similar movement in 2010 (actually a bit less given that ROW PERM/140 approvals are kind of artificially held back at this time.

Thus adding 9 months to Mar 2009 gives us Dec 2009.
I think you mean "in FY2015" rather than "in 2010". That is how I have read it.

Not sure I entirely agree.

I think this year is going to be exceptionally good for EB2-I due to the extra FB visas available and the exceptionally low consumption by EB2-WW. I don't think the same will hold true in FY2015 (although I reserve judgement until we see the FY2015 allocation for EB). I think the Cut Off Dates reaching the end of October 2009 next year could be quite a good result.


The question is - going into next year does CO have enough cases on his hand that he doesn't have to do a last minute maneuver? I think the answer is yes. The last time EB2I dates were current was as high as May 2010 (if my memory serves me correct).

So IMHO there is sufficient inventory including some buffer that CO has that he doesn't have to move the dates forward in fear of lack of EB2I demand.
I agree. he will have a sizable number of pending cases left at the end of FY2015.


However if CO just wants to be nice to EB2I then he can and he will move the dates to Oct 2009 or even beyond! Into 2011. Why not?
To play devil's advocate, CO needs to have sufficient visas available for the COD he moves to. We can discount demand after April 2010 because of the processing time.

All the other cases are preadjudicated and would only need an updated I-693 / EVL in most cases to be approvable. I think the number will be so large, it will preclude any discretion he might have to advance the dates.

Moving the dates beyond available visas also means that people with late PDs will get approved at the expense of earlier PDs. Nobody likes that situation.


So long story short - if dates move beyond Jun 2009 - EB2I folks owe CO a thank you note because he would be doing it when not really necessary from his standpoint.
Again, I totally agree.

[qesehmk]

Q,


I think you mean "in FY2015" rather than "in 2010". That is how I have read it.

Not sure I entirely agree.

I think this year is going to be exceptionally good for EB2-I due to the extra FB visas available and the exceptionally low consumption by EB2-WW. I don't think the same will hold true in FY2015 (although I reserve judgement until we see the FY2015 allocation for EB). I think the Cut Off Dates reaching the end of October 2009 next year could be quite a good result.

Yes indeed 2015. I don't know why I said 2010!

Indeed 2015 could be worse than 2014. And that's why I am saying that even if you assume 2015 will be as good as 2014 - even then CO doesn't need to move dates to create future demand. He already has enough in his pipeline.



To play devil's advocate, CO needs to have sufficient visas available for the COD he moves to. We can discount demand after April 2010 because of the processing time.

Agree. But I was talking about moving dates temporarily to generate demand - which I said is not necessary because he already has all the demand he needs. So then if he moves the dates forward beyond Jun 2009 then he is being nice to EB2I IMHO !!

[Spectator]

Q,

Got you.

The mention of 2011 seemed a little excessive. Moving beyond April 2010 was the specific point I was addressing. I think even moving to October 2009 would be more than CO being nice.

[qesehmk]

Q,

Got you.

The mention of 2011 seemed a little excessive. Moving beyond April 2010 was the specific point I was addressing. I think even moving to October 2009 would be more than CO being nice.

Spec - The reason I mentioned 2011 is because May 2010 is what we already touched in the past. So any date movement between Jun 2009 - May 2010 is unnecessary I think - it doesn't really serve any purpose other than for folks who missed the boat.

Thus any date movement beyond 2010 May - if at all done - will be done to take in more demand and/or on humanitarian grounds to give these guys some relief in terms of EAD and what not. In that case why limit to 1-2-3 months. Then I would expect CO to go all the way at least into 2011 if not beyond.

That was my rationale. But as I said technically speaking CO has no need to move dates at all beyond even Jun 2009.

[Spectator]

Q,

It's a matter of scale.

It would take about a further 5k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01NOV09 and cover PD in October 2009.

It would take about a further 12k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01MAY10 and cover the latest cases that could have filed to date.

It would take about a further 27k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01JAN11.

[qesehmk]

Q,

It's a matter of scale.

It would take about a further 5k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01NOV09 and cover PD in October 2009.

It would take about a further 12k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01MAY10 and cover the latest cases that could have filed to date.

It would take about a further 27k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01JAN11.
Don't disagree! True.

[skpanda]

Too bad... with a Dec 2010 PD.. i was hoping that I will get to file around Sept/Oct 2015 (Late FY2015 or Early FY2016). Looks like it is going to be Summer 2016 (Late FY 2016) at the earliest.

Neways.. lets see how it works out!!

Fingers crossed!





Q,

Nice to hear your mid range thoughts.

Also thinking out loud - it's a long way away yet and much can change.


I would agree. Wherever the actual final Cut Off Date lands the net clearance will do well to reach March 2009.


I think you mean "in FY2015" rather than "in 2010". That is how I have read it.

Not sure I entirely agree.

I think this year is going to be exceptionally good for EB2-I due to the extra FB visas available and the exceptionally low consumption by EB2-WW. I don't think the same will hold true in FY2015 (although I reserve judgement until we see the FY2015 allocation for EB). I think the Cut Off Dates reaching the end of October 2009 next year could be quite a good result.


I agree. he will have a sizable number of pending cases left at the end of FY2015.


To play devil's advocate, CO needs to have sufficient visas available for the COD he moves to. We can discount demand after April 2010 because of the processing time.

All the other cases are preadjudicated and would only need an updated I-693 / EVL in most cases to be approvable. I think the number will be so large, it will preclude any discretion he might have to advance the dates.

Moving the dates beyond available visas also means that people with late PDs will get approved at the expense of earlier PDs. Nobody likes that situation.


Again, I totally agree.

[dec2010]

Q,

It's a matter of scale.

It would take about a further 5k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01NOV09 and cover PD in October 2009.

It would take about a further 12k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01MAY10 and cover the latest cases that could have filed to date.

It would take about a further 27k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01JAN11.

Spec , 5 + 12 is what's in the inventory,however, 27K should not be a hurdle to move the COD, as that number needs to show up in 485 inventory. Until then it's Summer 2011>spring 2012 like scenario?

ps - I was hoping like skpanda that dates would move Early 2015 as opposed to late '15/early '16.

[Spectator]

Spec , 5 + 12 is what's in the inventory,however, 27K should not be a hurdle to move the COD, as that number needs to show up in 485 inventory. Until then it's Summer 2011>spring 2012 like scenario?

ps - I was hoping like skpanda that dates would move Early 2015 as opposed to late '15/early '16.dec2010,

I think I made that point in an earlier post.

To cover all existing preadjudicated cases up to 01MAY10 would still likely be a 50-60% contingency on available visa numbers for FY2014. To big, methinks.

[Spectator]

I've added stats for approvals per day and breakdown by Service Center for the Trackitt EB2-I July approvals in the FACTS & DATA section.

[SONU77]

Hi Spec, Could you please help me in navigating to approval stats post in the FACTS and DATA section. I tried but couldn't a post from you dated 7/4 in the Facts and Data section. The latest post I could find was dated 7/1 under Perm data thread.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec, Could you please help me in navigating to approval stats post in the FACTS and DATA section. I tried but couldn't a post from you dated 7/4 in the Facts and Data section. The latest post I could find was dated 7/1 under Perm data thread.Post #2 in this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011).

[dec2010]

dec2010,

I think I made that point in an earlier post.

To cover all existing preadjudicated cases up to 01MAY10 would still likely be a 50-60% contingency on available visa numbers for FY2014. To big, methinks.

thanks Spec. Clearly, I had missed that from your post.

[MeraGC1]

Got a quick question for experts. Please move this thread to appropriate place.

As per the July visa bulletin, my PD is current (July 2008). I had got RFE for myself and wife and sent RFE info to USCIS on 6/11. I have a very good job offer for a management position in the same field. Most of the job responsibilities matches with PERM. I am waiting for GC approval to join them. I have asked them to give me month's time to join. I am hoping in the next 30 days, I will get my GC approved. I have been working with the sponsoring company for the past 5 yrs. Do you think it will be a problem if I switch right after getting GC? The new employer won't sponsor H1. Worst case I need to join them on EAD and send AC -21 stuff to USCIS. Is that risky?

Thanks and appreciate your help

[vizcard]

Got a quick question for experts. Please move this thread to appropriate place.

As per the July visa bulletin, my PD is current (July 2008). I had got RFE for myself and wife and sent RFE info to USCIS on 6/11. I have a very good job offer for a management position in the same field. Most of the job responsibilities matches with PERM. I am waiting for GC approval to join them. I have asked them to give me month's time to join. I am hoping in the next 30 days, I will get my GC approved. I have been working with the sponsoring company for the past 5 yrs. Do you think it will be a problem if I switch right after getting GC? The new employer won't sponsor H1. Worst case I need to join them on EAD and send AC -21 stuff to USCIS. Is that risky?

Thanks and appreciate your help

Technically you can change jobs right away. As you said, you can use AC21 and move. There's no problem to switch jobs immediately after getting your green card assuming you haven't signed any sort of contract.

[tatikonda]

Technically you can change jobs right away. As you said, you can use AC21 and move. There's no problem to switch jobs immediately after getting your green card assuming you haven't signed any sort of contract.

Thanks Viz, seeing your reply.. I wanted to know one thing whcih I was wondering for long time ..
Employers making a contract to stay 2 years after getting Green Card, is it legal ??

[Kanmani]

August 2014 Bulletin is out.

EB2I CoD -22 jan 2009

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-august-2014.html

[eb2mar2008]

During the past two months, the India Employment Second preference cut-off date has advanced very rapidly based on the projected availability of "otherwise unused" numbers under the worldwide preference limit. It must not be assumed that this cut-off date will continue to advance at the same pace during the coming months. A cut-off date does not mean that everyone with a priority date before such cut-off date has already been processed to conclusion. It remains to be seen how heavy the demand for visa numbers by applicants will be in the coming months, and what the priority dates of such applicants may be. Heavy demand by applicants with priority dates significantly earlier than the established cut-off date is expected to materialize within the next several months, at which time the cut-off date is likely to retrogress significantly.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dont know what it means by the statement that not everybody with priority date before the Cutt off date are processed....

[Kanmani]

From August 2014 Bulletin...

"D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS.

The China-mainland born Employment Third and Third Other Workers cut-off dates have advanced for the month of August, and could do so again for September. There are two reasons for this advance after the retrogression of the cut-off date earlier this summer: 1) The heavy demand by applicants with priority dates significantly (years) earlier than the previous cut-off date has declined during the past two months, and 2) declining number use in the Family preferences during May and June, combined with updated estimates of such number use through the end of the fiscal year, has resulted in availability of several hundred numbers for use in the China-mainland born Employment Third preference..

During the past two months, the India Employment Second preference cut-off date has advanced very rapidly based on the projected availability of "otherwise unused" numbers under the worldwide preference limit. It must not be assumed that this cut-off date will continue to advance at the same pace during the coming months. A cut-off date does not mean that everyone with a priority date before such cut-off date has already been processed to conclusion. It remains to be seen how heavy the demand for visa numbers by applicants will be in the coming months, and what the priority dates of such applicants may be. Heavy demand by applicants with priority dates significantly earlier than the established cut-off date is expected to materialize within the next several months, at which time the cut-off date is likely to retrogress significantly."

[qesehmk]

DoS when moves the dates ahead - they are a bit blind because they don't always have a complete understanding of how many visas will be requested by USCIS. If they undershot then visas go waste if they overshot then they run the risk of not allocating visas to cases on a FIFO basis.

So generally they try to overshoot just a little. But there always is a risk that not all cases whose dates are current will actually be able to receive a visa.

Hope this helps.


During the past two months, the India Employment Second preference cut-off date has advanced very rapidly based on the projected availability of "otherwise unused" numbers under the worldwide preference limit. It must not be assumed that this cut-off date will continue to advance at the same pace during the coming months. A cut-off date does not mean that everyone with a priority date before such cut-off date has already been processed to conclusion. It remains to be seen how heavy the demand for visa numbers by applicants will be in the coming months, and what the priority dates of such applicants may be. Heavy demand by applicants with priority dates significantly earlier than the established cut-off date is expected to materialize within the next several months, at which time the cut-off date is likely to retrogress significantly.


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Dont know what it means by the statement that not everybody with priority date before the Cutt off date are processed....

[bieber]

DoS when moves the dates ahead - they are a bit blind because they don't always have a complete understanding of how many visas will be requested by USCIS. If they undershot then visas go waste if they overshot then they run the risk of not allocating visas to cases on a FIFO basis.

So generally they try to overshoot just a little. But there always is a risk that not all cases whose dates are current will actually be able to receive a visa.

Hope this helps.

It's interesting they chose 22nd. I wonder if it has anything to do with the calculation of exact spillover and september will be cushion to adjust little bit.

I expected they move to 1st of (Jan to Jun) 2009.

Kanmani, I saw that you received RFE, congrats :) hope the dates will go beyond your PD in september

[eb2mar2008]

Yes it does...thank you for the detailed response.


DoS when moves the dates ahead - they are a bit blind because they don't always have a complete understanding of how many visas will be requested by USCIS. If they undershot then visas go waste if they overshot then they run the risk of not allocating visas to cases on a FIFO basis.

So generally they try to overshoot just a little. But there always is a risk that not all cases whose dates are current will actually be able to receive a visa.

Hope this helps.

[imdeng]

So we have 22-Jan-2009 as the EB2I date for Aug 2009 VB. This surely is strange. So here is a theory/speculation on how that might come about (its pure conjecture - so large grain of salt required to be ingested).

Starting Point: 01-Sep-2008 (the PD for July), Ending Point 01-Nov-2009 (assuming all Oct-2009 folks are getting RFE). Assume that this range is to be cleaned up by the end of Oct-2014 (2 months left in this FY plus the first month of next FY, like they did last year). So we have to cover 14 months in 3 steps - so 4.67 months per step. If you calculate ~4.67 months from 1-Sep-2008, you will land on to 22-Jan-2008 since you only have choices of 1, 8, 15 and 22 for PD days. Neat - huh?

By this logic, the PD will be 8 or 15-June-2009 for Sept VB (both are acceptable because of rounding 4.67 months into the 4 options, June 2009 fits with the Spring/Summer 2009 narrative) and 1-Nov-2009 for Oct VB. This will ensure that all the RFEs are taken care of.