EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014 [Archive] - Page 13

Spectator

04-09-2014, 09:59 AM

May 2014 Visa Bulletin http://www.travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-may-2014.html

No Change for EB2INice to see EB3-I finally move forward.

I wanted to make some comments about the non-Indian Cut off Dates.

Employment Based

a) As expected, the EB3-WW Cut Off Date has stalled. I think it is possible it will retrogress in coming months.

b) EB3-Philippines has surpassed July 2007 for the first time with a large jump to 01NOV07.

c) Continued healthy forward movement for EB2-China.

Family Based

a) Fairly healthy forward movement in all Categories other than F2A.

b) The notes suggest that F2A-WW, which has been stuck at 08SEP13 for 8 months and F2A-Mexico, which was retrogressed over 16 months in March, are both likely to retrogress in coming months.

D. VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

WORLDWIDE F2A: From early 2013 through September 2013, the level of demand for numbers in this preference category was extremely low. As a result, the F2A cut-off date was advanced at a very rapid pace, in an attempt to generate demand so that the annual numerical limit could be fully utilized. As readers of the Visa Bulletin were advised during that time, such cut-off date advances were not expected to continue, and at some point they could stop, or retrogression might be required.

The level of demand being experienced for FY-2014 has resulted in the Worldwide F2A cut-off date being held since October. Despite no forward movement of the cut-off date, the level of demand has continued to increase dramatically. At the current rate, such demand will require a retrogression of the F2A cut-off date within the next several months. That action would be necessary to hold number use within the annual numerical limit.

MEXICO F2A: Despite an earlier retrogression of this cut-off date, the level of demand remains extremely heavy. As a result, it is likely that another retrogression of this cut-off date will be required to hold number use within the annual limit.

CO is slowly driving nails into the coffin of anyone who expects much in the way of extra FB numbers for EB next year. The vast majority of those extra visas have come from under use of F2A.

2-i-485

04-09-2014, 10:00 AM

Friends,

May be this doesnt mean anything. My priority date is Nov 2009. The case status has changed from acceptance to initial review. I dont know if this was initiated by the recent change in address. I am a physician and moved from RI to MA with a new employer after completing almost 5 years and 9 months for physician NIW. The requirements for completion of 5 years in medically underserved area was submitted last July. Any thoughts?

geevikram

04-09-2014, 10:34 AM

My status changed too after address change. I believe that is Standard Operating Procedure.

Wizoz2

04-09-2014, 11:34 AM

Nice to see EB3-I finally move forward.

I wanted to make some comments about the non-Indian Cut off Dates.

Employment Based

a) As expected, the EB3-WW Cut Off Date has stalled. I think it is possible it will retrogress in coming months.

b) EB3-Philippines has surpassed July 2007 for the first time with a large jump to 01NOV07.

c) Continued healthy forward movement for EB2-China.

Family Based

a) Fairly healthy forward movement in all Categories other than F2A.

b) The notes suggest that F2A-WW, which has been stuck at 08SEP13 for 8 months and F2A-Mexico, which was retrogressed over 16 months in March, are both likely to retrogress in coming months.

CO is slowly driving nails into the coffin of anyone who expects much in the way of extra FB numbers for EB next year. The vast majority of those extra visas have come from under use of F2A.

So technically it looks like the spillover from FB to EB may go down due to the high demand :-(. That is a bummer. Doubt if there will be any status quo in the next 3 years or so. The wait just gets longer and more frustrating.

YTeleven

04-09-2014, 12:02 PM

Nice to see EB3-I finally move forward.

I was expecting this might happen in 2nd half and I believe from here on EB3-I will get its monthly quota till the end of the year.
The reason behind this is that as per my estimate, the EB3-I got its 6 months of visa allocations during 1st week of the FY14 and there was a mention of this in 07-Oct-13 DD:

The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation
of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in
the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.
But nobody knows what were those numbers they have allocated for EB2-I & EB3-I on 01-Oct-2013 and continued processing the cases till Nov'13.
I tried to estimate those numbers with some assumptions in unconventional way and found this:
548

helooo

04-09-2014, 12:52 PM

Nice to see EB3-I finally move forward.

I wanted to make some comments about the non-Indian Cut off Dates.

Employment Based

a) As expected, the EB3-WW Cut Off Date has stalled. I think it is possible it will retrogress in coming months.

b) EB3-Philippines has surpassed July 2007 for the first time with a large jump to 01NOV07.

c) Continued healthy forward movement for EB2-China.

Family Based

a) Fairly healthy forward movement in all Categories other than F2A.

b) The notes suggest that F2A-WW, which has been stuck at 08SEP13 for 8 months and F2A-Mexico, which was retrogressed over 16 months in March, are both likely to retrogress in coming months.

CO is slowly driving nails into the coffin of anyone who expects much in the way of extra FB numbers for EB next year. The vast majority of those extra visas have come from under use of F2A.
So with new calculations,where do you think EB2I will move in July VB?Thanks!

Spectator

04-09-2014, 01:33 PM

So with new calculations,where do you think EB2I will move in July VB?Thanks!helooo,

My own feeling is it will remain unchanged in July. I think it will move in the August VB, as it did last year. It is also what CO suggested in late November 2013.

• It is very possible that in August or September 2014, the last two months of the 2014 fiscal year, EB-2 India will advance again to around December 2008. However, that is only an educated guess at this time. No exact date is certain.

YTeleven

04-09-2014, 02:59 PM

a) As expected, the EB3-WW Cut Off Date has stalled. I think it is possible it will retrogress in coming months.

Spec,

My take on this:
I feel it is a temporary halt and we may see further movements in the coming months. I'm NOT seeing any red flags to retrogress. Do you see any?
From I-485 processing data I see NO spikes in new Reciepts due to this forward movement but I see there is pending inventory has risen from 50k to 81k during Oct'13 to Jan'14 period and I'm assuming those pending files includes the EB1 485s also due to processing delays. Preadjucated case are at rock bottom (probably those are just EB2-I, EB3-I & EB2-C cases). previously we used to see 100k of preadjucated cases but now left with 65k.
Also, from your PERM data, CY 2010 was the lowest point for the EB-ROW PERM approvals and the trend reversed from CY11, probably here after the forward movement might become slow but NOT completly halted or retrogressed.

Spectator

04-09-2014, 03:59 PM

Spec,

My take on this:
I feel it is a temporary halt and we may see further movements in the coming months. I'm NOT seeing any red flags to retrogress. Do you see any?
From I-485 processing data I see NO spikes in new Reciepts due to this forward movement but I see there is pending inventory has risen from 50k to 81k during Oct'13 to Jan'14 period and I'm assuming those pending files includes the EB1 485s also due to processing delays. Preadjucated case are at rock bottom (probably those are just EB2-I, EB3-I & EB2-C cases). previously we used to see 100k of preadjucated cases but now left with 65k.
Also, from your PERM data, CY 2010 was the lowest point for the EB-ROW PERM approvals and the trend reversed from CY11, probably here after the forward movement might become slow but NOT completly halted or retrogressed.YT,

My take.

EB3-ROW have seen a large increase in the number of approvals in the last two months and are now well ahead of where they need to be at this stage IMO. The number of remaining pending cases now appears more than sufficient for EB3-ROW to meet the maximum they can receive.

Unless the Service Centers stop (or severely slow) processing EB3-ROW cases, demand will outstrip remaining supply, which will necessitate retrogression before the end of the FY.

On the subject of the Service Centers, has anyone else noticed they seem to have almost stopped approving I-485 cases completely (as judged by Trackitt). NSC went to sleep some time ago, but now TSC seem to have joined them. In what is now nearly 7 working days out of 22 in April, there are only 13 total approvals on Trackitt and 6 of those were on a single day. Compare that to the 237 approvals in 21 working days in March, or 173 in 19 working days in February.

EB2-ROW has received very few approvals this year, despite an apparently very large number of pending cases. Two thirds of those have now been pending more than 4.5 months.

shekhar_kuruk

04-09-2014, 04:24 PM

Spec,
Nice to have you back.
On the slow down regarding the EB2-ROW I- 485 approvals, is it not better for EB2-India & China in general. I guess I am being selfish, but here a couple of questions.
1. As Q & YT have pointed out earlier regarding EB2-ROW PERM slow approval rate and now what you are indicating regarding EB2-ROW 485 approval rate, is that not a double whammy for
EB2-ROW.
2. Also will the CO notice this and try to move the dates earlier for EB2-India & China so that no visas are wasted.

Thanks.

YT,

My take.

EB3-ROW have seen a large increase in the number of approvals in the last two months and are now well ahead of where they need to be at this stage IMO. The number of remaining pending cases now appears more than sufficient for EB3-ROW to meet the maximum they can receive.

Unless the Service Centers stop (or severely slow) processing EB3-ROW cases, demand will outstrip remaining supply, which will necessitate retrogression before the end of the FY.

On the subject of the Service Centers, has anyone else noticed they seem to have almost stopped approving I-485 cases completely (as judged by Trackitt). NSC went to sleep some time ago, but now TSC seem to have joined them. In what is now nearly 7 working days out of 22 in April, there are only 13 total approvals on Trackitt and 6 of those were on a single day. Compare that to the 237 approvals in 21 working days in March, or 173 in 19 working days in February.

EB2-ROW has received very few approvals this year, despite an apparently very large number of pending cases. Two thirds of those have now been pending more than 4.5 months.

Spectator

04-09-2014, 04:44 PM

Spec,

On the slow down regarding the EB2-ROW I- 485 approvals, is it not better for EB2-India & China in general. I guess I am being selfish, but here a couple of questions.
1. As Q & YT have pointed out earlier regarding EB2-ROW PERM slow approval rate and now what you are indicating regarding EB2-ROW 485 approval rate, is that not a double whammy for
EB2-ROW.
2. Also will the CO notice this and try to move the dates earlier for EB2-India & China so that no visas are wasted.

Thanks.shekhar,

1) Yes, it would be a double whammy, but it is not sustainable IMO. Frankly, I am expecting to see "a month of EB2-ROW" similar to the "month of EB1" we have just seen.

2) Quite the opposite IMO. CO will know the numbers are out there for EB2-ROW. The slower they get approved, the longer he will have to wait to move EB2-I. USCIS were able to process 15k EB2-I in Aug/Sep 2013 and at least another 5k EB3-I in Sep 2013, so he can afford to wait. EB3-I won't be a concern this year, and I think it unlikely that there will be enough spare visas for USCIS to have to process an additional 20k EB2-I cases before the end of the FY.

The slow processing rate at the Service Centers is definitely a concern - let's see how it evolves over the next 3 months.

willywonka

04-09-2014, 05:19 PM

YT, you rock!!! Great work and fantastic presentations. Thank you.

Spec, welcome back (sniff sniff). Great to see your return. I was catching up on the posts, Q kinda teased your return with something about "Spec-The-Great" and then a few posts later, bam, I saw yours. When you left I didn't get a chance to say thank you and goodbye. I have sleeping disorders induced by immigration anxiety. This forum is my rock and I find solace from information on this forum to some extent, especially your posts. It hasn't been the same without you (not belittling others at all) and it's very comforting to have you back. I truly appreciate your contributions; Thank You.

Spectator

04-09-2014, 05:20 PM

I might as well pour out all the negatives in one go. I won't apologize for doing so, since I think it is useful to discuss all scenarios.

In a previous post, I said that the potential retrogression of all F2A and potential further retrogression of F2A-Mexico is not a good sign for EB receiving extra FB numbers next year.

If that turns out to be the case, then I think it will be very difficult for CO to repeat what he did this FY and leave the Cut Off Dates for EB2-I at a late date for the first couple of months of the new FY.

If EB only has 140k available, the amount of SOFAD available to EB2-I is likely to be quite low. CO will not be able to use most (or all) of that in the first 2 months of the FY.

This FY, CO had the luxury of knowing that around 10k extra FB numbers would be available to EB and that, maybe 7k of that would eventually be available to EB2-I, for at least 10k minimum with the initial allocation.

If there are no extra FB numbers in FY2015, CO would have to assume EB2-I could have as little as 3k available to them. A fairly early Cut Off Date would consume 3k during the year purely from upgrade cases.

Lots of "ifs", I agree, but worth considering.

qesehmk

04-09-2014, 05:48 PM

Spec- I agree with the FB scenario. But IMHO CO's decision to not retrogress dates immediately in Oct/Nov has nothing to do with FB spillover. I think he just needs enough data to justify any action and I actually applaud him for that. Year 2014 data was not going to come in at least until early november so the earliest bulletin we can see retrogression is Dec. I think that's what will happen even for 2015 - FB spillover won't be a factor.

I might as well pour out all the negatives in one go. I won't apologize for doing so, since I think it is useful to discuss all scenarios.

In a previous post, I said that the potential retrogression of all F2A and potential further retrogression of F2A-Mexico is not a good sign for EB receiving extra FB numbers next year.

If that turns out to be the case, then I think it will be very difficult for CO to repeat what he did this FY and leave the Cut Off Dates for EB2-I at a late date for the first couple of months of the new FY.

If EB only has 140k available, the amount of SOFAD available to EB2-I is likely to be quite low. CO will not be able to use most (or all) of that in the first 2 months of the FY.

This FY, CO had the luxury of knowing that around 10k extra FB numbers would be available to EB and that, maybe 7k of that would eventually be available to EB2-I, for at least 10k minimum with the initial allocation.

If there are no extra FB numbers in FY2015, CO would have to assume EB2-I could have as little as 3k available to them. A fairly early Cut Off Date would consume 3k during the year purely from upgrade cases.

Lots of "ifs", I agree, but worth considering.

Jagan01

04-09-2014, 06:09 PM

Spec- I agree with the FB scenario. But IMHO CO's decision to not retrogress dates immediately in Oct/Nov has nothing to do with FB spillover. I think he just needs enough data to justify any action and I actually applaud him for that. Year 2014 data was not going to come in at least until early november so the earliest bulletin we can see retrogression is Dec. I think that's what will happen even for 2015 - FB spillover won't be a factor.

I kind of find a common ground between both of your arguments. I think we need to focus on both supply and demand.

Supply:
As Spec pointed out, FB spillover will reduce. This will make CO cautious of the fact that spillover might not be great. Last year he had some confidence that there will be FB spillover and hence ended up using more than the annual quota of Eb2I in the first few months.

Demand:
I believe that demand will be a game changer. There will be lesser porters compared to the number that ported and filed I-485 last year. CO made the retrogression when he saw unprecedented demand in early Nov from porters that had actually applied in Aug/Sep and their applications became pre-adj and started showing up. The demand that CO will see in Nov will be a factor of:
- How far does he move the dates in Sep (For ex. Jan 2009 might not leave as many pending as May 2009)
- Porting demand (Porting demand will be lesser if the movement is smaller. For ex , if dates get moved to Jan 2009 then there will be new porters mainly between Jun 2008 to Jan 2009)

I personally feel that whether the retrogression happens in Oct / Nov / Dec really depends on how farther the date ends up being in Sep.

qesehmk

04-10-2014, 12:14 AM

Jagan - demand supply will certainly figure into who consumes how much and how much spillover if any goes to backlogged countries/categories.

But when CO is going to move the dates -remember that he has to work with a set of laws and his own operational procedures. He can't move the dates on a whim. I am sure he has established certain thresholds. That's why I said - the only time he can make an informed decision to move dates is when data about current year consumption is made available sometime in November. Which means the earliest he can retro is in December bulletin. I think that's exactly what he did last year and will do this year.

However I agree that I do not have any proof - this is rather logical thinking on my part. Reality could be different.

I kind of find a common ground between both of your arguments. I think we need to focus on both supply and demand.

Supply:
As Spec pointed out, FB spillover will reduce. This will make CO cautious of the fact that spillover might not be great. Last year he had some confidence that there will be FB spillover and hence ended up using more than the annual quota of Eb2I in the first few months.

Demand:
I believe that demand will be a game changer. There will be lesser porters compared to the number that ported and filed I-485 last year. CO made the retrogression when he saw unprecedented demand in early Nov from porters that had actually applied in Aug/Sep and their applications became pre-adj and started showing up. The demand that CO will see in Nov will be a factor of:
- How far does he move the dates in Sep (For ex. Jan 2009 might not leave as many pending as May 2009)
- Porting demand (Porting demand will be lesser if the movement is smaller. For ex , if dates get moved to Jan 2009 then there will be new porters mainly between Jun 2008 to Jan 2009)

I personally feel that whether the retrogression happens in Oct / Nov / Dec really depends on how farther the date ends up being in Sep.

gcpursuit

04-10-2014, 09:13 AM

pdfeb09

04-10-2014, 09:58 AM

Hey .. glad to see you Spec.

Spectator

04-10-2014, 10:09 AM

Spec - good to see you back.

I had a question about inventory data sometime back. Where do you think the numbers for November/December in the latest inventory data come from for EB1 India? Since EB1C does not allow premium processing, how are these numbers so high? any ideas?gcpursuit

Firstly, I really wouldn't get hung up about certain figures in certain boxes in the USCIS Inventory. There have always been inconsistencies in the data. It could just be data entry errors. I agree they look strange, but I don't think there is a way to resolve the inconsistency. I think the overall number is probably correct - I might suspect some of the monthly numbers.

Secondly, the DHS numbers discussed in the original posts were not comparing "apples to apples".

Jagan is aware of this.

The DHS data quoted in the original post was for primary applicants only, whereas the USCIS Inventory numbers include dependents.

Taking the DHS data for FY2012 as an example:

EB1A ------------- 3,569 -- 21.91%
EB1B ------------- 3,394 -- 20.84%
EB1C ------------- 9,323 -- 57.25%

Primary total –-- 16,286

Spouses --------- 12,555
Children -------- 10,475

Dependent total – 23,030

Grand total ----- 39,316

The dependent ratio has remained fairly constant at about 1.4 dependents per primary approval for many years for EB1.

The DHS data does not split the dependents by the subcategories.

If the dependents are spread proportionally across the sub-categories based on primary approvals then on average, if EB1 received 40,000 approvals, the rough spread would be (if new applications were spread evenly each month)

EB1A -- 9,000 – about 750 per month
EB1B -- 9,000 – about 750 per month
EB1C - 22,000 – about 1,835 per month

The DHS data does not subdivide the data by Country.

vizcard

04-11-2014, 01:08 AM

Quick question for the forum. I think I know the answer but I'd like to tap the collective wisdom of the members here.

I work in management consulting for a Big 4 company. I have an opportunity come my way from a large investment bank to do essentially the same work but internally (i.e. an internal consultant). How would this affect my GC given the job description requirements?

My PD is Aug 2008 so I'm a little skittish about making drastic moves but this is in that gray area.

qesehmk

04-11-2014, 07:07 AM

Viz - On this topic I think you already know enough. So I will only give you my perspective to think and you make the decision.

Your best bet to get a GC is July - worst is September. So if you wait until then - then post GC you are going to wonder whether you should make a move within or after 6 months.

So now the time horizon of career switch shifts from April i.e., today to sometime Jan-Mar next year. Will the same or similar opportunity come your way then? Is current opportunity eligible for AC21? You decide Viz! But whatever you do - we all wish you the best!

Quick question for the forum. I think I know the answer but I'd like to tap the collective wisdom of the members here.

I work in management consulting for a Big 4 company. I have an opportunity come my way from a large investment bank to do essentially the same work but internally (i.e. an internal consultant). How would this affect my GC given the job description requirements?

My PD is Aug 2008 so I'm a little skittish about making drastic moves but this is in that gray area.

venkat

04-11-2014, 07:57 AM

Nicely said Q. Really on the dot!!!

If I were you viz i would take it unless I'm confident I'll be able to get a similar one whenever I start looking again.

Viz, you have been long enough so I won't say anything more.

Viz - On this topic I think you already know enough. So I will only give you my perspective to think and you make the decision.

Your best bet to get a GC is July - worst is September. So if you wait until then - then post GC you are going to wonder whether you should make a move within or after 6 months.

So now the time horizon of career switch shifts from April i.e., today to sometime Jan-Mar next year. Will the same or similar opportunity come your way then? Is current opportunity eligible for AC21? You decide Viz! But whatever you do - we all wish you the best!

vizcard

04-11-2014, 09:33 AM

Thanks Q and Venkat. My wife and I just had our first child so the prospects of doing the same work but not having to travel is enticing. I figure I'll atleast give it a shot and talk to few immigration lawyers to get their perspective.

Kanmani

04-11-2014, 09:57 AM

qesehmk

04-11-2014, 10:13 AM

Viz this is an important time in your life. It looks like you should go ahead and do the switch. Congrats again. How old is the little one now?

Thanks Q and Venkat. My wife and I just had our first child so the prospects of doing the same work but not having to travel is enticing. I figure I'll atleast give it a shot and talk to few immigration lawyers to get their perspective.

venkat

04-11-2014, 11:39 AM

Congrats Viz on your child.

The most important lawyer to get your opinion would be the one in your proposed new job (hopefully they have an immigration attorney/team). Because in the unfortunate case of any RFE he would be the one who will be representing the case. I would suggest take the offer but inform the HR that you want to personally talk to the immigration lawyer to clarify few things. This way you know for sure.

I'll tell you 9 out 10 will be OK with your scenario. All the Best!!!

Thanks Q and Venkat. My wife and I just had our first child so the prospects of doing the same work but not having to travel is enticing. I figure I'll atleast give it a shot and talk to few immigration lawyers to get their perspective.

venki080

04-11-2014, 02:06 PM

@ Viz
Exactly my situation last year. I was in a similar dilemma all I did was PM Q and MAtt2012 got their views and made a switch didnt bother filing AC 21 since I didnt want to send any notifications to USCIS without being asked for it. Meanwhile my H1B was cancelled ( I made the switch on EAD) and I got a H1B revoke letter from USCIS . I was 100 % sure that I would get an RFE on my current employment status but nothing happened and I got my GC without any issues on Sep 12th 2013 . So I would suggest you make the switch ( I remember Q bhai's words to me " We are in this country for a better life and better career opportunities - That is priority everything else secondary"

imdeng

04-11-2014, 04:23 PM

Kanmani

04-12-2014, 03:07 AM

Perm data for 2nd Quarter 2014 is available now ......http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm#dis

Spectator

04-12-2014, 08:53 AM

Perm data for 2nd Quarter 2014 is available now ......http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm#disThe PERM Fact Sheet for Q2 FY2014 was also released http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2014_Q2.pdf

I found a few test records in the disclosure data, which is pretty unprofessional IMO. I have removed them for my analysis.

All the PERM data posts in FACTS & DATA have been updated to reflect the Q2 FY2014 figures.

The numbers and breakdown for Q2 were:

CHINA -------- 1,189 --- 6.94%
INDIA -------- 9,456 -- 55.21%
MEXICO --------- 322 --- 1.88%
PHILIPPINES ---- 474 --- 2.77%
ROW ---------- 5,687 -- 33.20%
Grand Total - 17,128 - 100.00%

The breakdown for Q1 was:

CHINA ---------- 642 --- 7.08%
INDIA -------- 5,083 -- 56.03%
MEXICO --------- 281 --- 3.10%
PHILIPPINES ---- 210 --- 2.31%
ROW ---------- 2,856 -- 31.48%
Grand Total -- 9,072 - 100.00%

redwood

04-12-2014, 01:51 PM

This could be a double whammy for India. PERM speeds up and the percentage I+C decreases ( 62%). If I remember correctly it was 65% in Q1 also which means in Q2 it was ~ 60%

The PERM Fact Sheet for Q2 FY2014 was also released http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2014_Q2.pdf

I found a few test records in the disclosure data, which is pretty unprofessional IMO. I have removed them for my analysis.

All the PERM data posts in FACTS & DATA have been updated to reflect the Q2 FY2014 figures.

vizcard

04-12-2014, 03:12 PM

Vizcard - Congratulations on the baby and the job offer. I will chime in with the others - you should definitely take up the offer. Right now is as good a time as any. As Q said, if you wait then you would want to wait for 6 months at least post-GC as well - so do it now. I am familiar with travel demands of your industry - I am sure that you will find your new job much more compatible with the demands of taking care of the new baby.

@ Viz
Exactly my situation last year. I was in a similar dilemma all I did was PM Q and MAtt2012 got their views and made a switch didnt bother filing AC 21 since I didnt want to send any notifications to USCIS without being asked for it. Meanwhile my H1B was cancelled ( I made the switch on EAD) and I got a H1B revoke letter from USCIS . I was 100 % sure that I would get an RFE on my current employment status but nothing happened and I got my GC without any issues on Sep 12th 2013 . So I would suggest you make the switch ( I remember Q bhai's words to me " We are in this country for a better life and better career opportunities - That is priority everything else secondary"

Congrats Viz on your child.

The most important lawyer to get your opinion would be the one in your proposed new job (hopefully they have an immigration attorney/team). Because in the unfortunate case of any RFE he would be the one who will be representing the case. I would suggest take the offer but inform the HR that you want to personally talk to the immigration lawyer to clarify few things. This way you know for sure.

I'll tell you 9 out 10 will be OK with your scenario. All the Best!!!

Viz this is an important time in your life. It looks like you should go ahead and do the switch. Congrats again. How old is the little one now?

Congratulations on your little one Viz. Go ahead with your new offer.

Thanks all for your wishes. My girl is 3 weeks today.

It's an opportunity yet not an offer but they contacted me so they see the skills. My dilemma was stemming from whether I should even meet the SVPs and COO and then turn it down for immigration reasons. Might burn some bridges there which I would hate doing.

incredible

04-13-2014, 10:45 AM

Hi Viz
I understand where you are coming from. I have been in this situation last year. I had interacted with VP of an organization where they wanted to hire some one. I did not want to discuss with him about immigration aspects at that level and burn the relationship and/or bridges. I went ahead and hired an independent lawyer myself and explained my situation. Luckily attorney reasoned out that it is fit for AC-21 type of scenario and it is absolutely fine to switch.
I then continued my discussion with VP and other higher ups and took the offer. Only during the HR discussions, I told them that I might need AC-21 (EVL) as well as future EVL if USCIS asks for it. I also told them that I do not need an attorney support as I have hired my own. Then they went back to their HR managers as well as their attorney (this is just my guess) and came back agreeing to that, since VP liked me any way.

I have since switched and as expected the old company cancelled H1B that I was on, but I never received any RFE and also was able to successfully submit the AC-21 and Address Change (which is acknowledged by USCIS by updating all my cases like I140, I485 etc.).

Just thought to provide the complete scenario and it is fine to go ahead with the offer if that helps both family life as well as career growth.

Thanks all for your wishes. My girl is 3 weeks today.

It's an opportunity yet not an offer but they contacted me so they see the skills. My dilemma was stemming from whether I should even meet the SVPs and COO and then turn it down for immigration reasons. Might burn some bridges there which I would hate doing.

Jagan01

04-13-2014, 02:49 PM

This could be a double whammy for India. PERM speeds up and the percentage I+C decreases ( 62%). If I remember correctly it was 65% in Q1 also which means in Q2 it was ~ 60%

As expected the number is on the higher side. I am hoping that there wont be as many I-485 applications filed by EB2ROW. Hopefully the fast movement in EB3ROW will mean that lesser porting for EBROW. Am just wondering whether there might be many EB3ROW who might have filed PERM to port to EB2ROW but by the time the PERM was approved they might have been current with EB3ROW date. In that case they might not really use the certified PERM and would be counted against EB3ROW and not EB2ROW :)

justvisiting

04-15-2014, 07:20 PM

I wanted to reply to a couple of points raised recently:
-EB2-ROW doing PP: There is a strong preference to do PP. Applicants can "smell the finish line" and are willing to pay the extra $ to get a green card earlier. Also, when filing concurrently your I-485 with and I-140 with PP the packet does not go to the lockbox, rather the whole thing is mailed to the PP unit. Anecdotes suggest this results in an earlier fingerprint appointment and therefore an earlier EAD/AP.
-EB-2 PERM slowdown: PD up to 08/2012 saw PERMs processed in two months. By PD 01/2013 it had grown to four months and since about 4/2013 it ballooned to 7 months. I have seen little evidence of this trend getting any better.
-EB-2 I-485 slowdown: In early 2013 an I-485 could be approved in 3 months. Around that time the waiting period for I-130s had grown to more than 15 months (this is because the units that processed I-130s were processing DACA). USCIS responded by transferring I-130s from VSC/CSC to TSC/NSC and this may explain why the I-485s started to slow down in early 2014. Frankly, while DACA is around I expect USCIS to have "glitches" in processing. I would not be surprised if they decide to dump the I-130s back to CSC/VSC to clear room to approve I-485s come the August/September crunch.

imdeng

04-16-2014, 03:39 AM

Good points all. I had to google DACA - for others like me, it refers to Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals. It seems more than 500K applicants were given EAD through DACA. These are 2 year EADs which will come up for renewal in 2014. At $465 per application and renewal, USCIS is making decent money on this process too.

I wanted to reply to a couple of points raised recently:
-EB2-ROW doing PP: There is a strong preference to do PP. Applicants can "smell the finish line" and are willing to pay the extra $ to get a green card earlier. Also, when filing concurrently your I-485 with and I-140 with PP the packet does not go to the lockbox, rather the whole thing is mailed to the PP unit. Anecdotes suggest this results in an earlier fingerprint appointment and therefore an earlier EAD/AP.
-EB-2 PERM slowdown: PD up to 08/2012 saw PERMs processed in two months. By PD 01/2013 it had grown to four months and since about 4/2013 it ballooned to 7 months. I have seen little evidence of this trend getting any better.
-EB-2 I-485 slowdown: In early 2013 an I-485 could be approved in 3 months. Around that time the waiting period for I-130s had grown to more than 15 months (this is because the units that processed I-130s were processing DACA). USCIS responded by transferring I-130s from VSC/CSC to TSC/NSC and this may explain why the I-485s started to slow down in early 2014. Frankly, while DACA is around I expect USCIS to have "glitches" in processing. I would not be surprised if they decide to dump the I-130s back to CSC/VSC to clear room to approve I-485s come the August/September crunch.

justvisiting

04-16-2014, 08:41 AM

smuggymba

04-17-2014, 07:40 AM

My EAD is up for renewal on Dec 1, 2014 i.e. 4 months prior to expiry. I hope I get mine in time. I have the 2 yr EAD/AP combo.

What happens if we don't' get EAD on time; can we continue to work?

Kanmani

04-17-2014, 08:08 AM

My EAD is up for renewal on Dec 1, 2014 i.e. 4 months prior to expiry. I hope I get mine in time. I have the 2 yr EAD/AP combo.

What happens if we don't' get EAD on time; can we continue to work?

No. You cannot.

You must stop working right after your EAD expired and wait for EAD approval. You are lawfully permitted to do so and protected by AoS pending status less status.

Pundit Arjun

04-17-2014, 08:46 AM

No. You cannot.

You must stop working right after your EAD expired and wait for EAD approval. You are lawfully permitted to do so and protected by AoS pending status less status.

Smuggymba, if you have a valid H1-B then you can submit a new I-9 to your employer and work on H1-B.
This is an option for you.

qesehmk

04-17-2014, 09:12 AM

FY2013 Visa Approvals

2,803 more visas were issued than the allocation for Employment Based Categories allowed.

EB3 Approvals

EB3-Philippines received 2,464 more visas than their allocation of 3,172 visas (77.68%).
EB3-ROW received 9,111 less visas than their allocation of 32,933 visas (27.67%).
Adjusted for M&P usage, EB3-ROW received 6,582 less visas than expected (21.65%).
EB3 received 1,581 less visas than the allocation of 45,321 (3.49%).

Spec - great stats as always. These EB3 numbers caused a little storm on the forum a few weeks back. One user insisted that EB3 India either didn't receive more numbers than quota or those numbers didn't come from EB3ROW. I and Kanmani thought that EB3ROW - inspite of aggresive date movements - just couldn't generate enough demand and hence ended up giving up its visas to EB3I (and now I know also to EB3P). I would be interested in hearing your take on that if any.

I also want to note that it interesting that...

1. EB3 overall consumed less visas than quota in spite of a very mature backlog.
2. EB3P received more when Philippines is a backlogged country across EB and FB.

Those would be good questions to ask CO.

Spectator

04-17-2014, 10:04 AM

Spec - great stats as always. These EB3 numbers caused a little storm on the forum a few weeks back. One user insisted that EB3 India either didn't receive more numbers than quota or those numbers didn't come from EB3ROW. I and Kanmani thought that EB3ROW - inspite of aggresive date movements - just couldn't generate enough demand and hence ended up giving up its visas to EB3I (and now I know also to EB3P). I would be interested in hearing your take on that if any.

I also want to note that it interesting that...

1. EB3 overall consumed less visas than quota in spite of a very mature backlog.
2. EB3P received more when Philippines is a backlogged country across EB and FB.

Those would be good questions to ask CO.Q,

I saw the conversation previously and agreed with the view put forward by Kanmani and yourself. IMO, it is clear that the extra numbers were made available to EB3-I due to the lack of demand from EB3-ROW caused by CO moving the Cut Off Date too little/too late.

To address your questions:

1. My belief is that happened because EB2-I had used too many visas. EB as a whole overshot their allocation of 158,466. CO had to stop all approvals and EB3 were the losers. It has been a continuing trend over the past few years and has occurred to some extent in every FY from FY2009 thru FY2013.

2. I think this is a topic that has been discussed before. The 7% limitation is an overall limitation across the total of FB & EB numbers. The September 2013 VB set the number as 26,913 for FY2013.

E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS
REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION
AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the USCIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 25th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2013 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limits for FY-2013 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 158,466

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2013 the per-country limit is 26,913. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,689.

This is what allows South Korea to receive more EB visas than otherwise appears possible.

For Philippines, it is easier to just look at it from an EB point of view (although that is not strictly correct as I said above). 7% of 158,466 is 11,093 approvals within all EB Categories. Philippines only used 4,901 visas in the other 4 EB Categories. Even with the extra numbers in EB3, Philippines only used 10,537 visas within all of EB in FY2013, which is still below the 11,093 limit.

Overall, Philippines used 26,840 visas across FB & EB. Of these, 24,221 counted towards the 7% limit, because 2,619 were issued under F2A (Exempt) and did not count towards the 7% calculation.

The low use by Philippines in other EB Categories has always allowed them to receive more EB3 visas than the notional 7% calculation for EB3 alone would suggest. The same used to be true for EB3-Mexico until they reached the EB3-ROW Cut Off Date.

I have said before that this seems unfair to EB3-ROW, because it reduces their allocation quite considerably, while the same under use by Philippines in EB1, EB4 and EB5 is also given as Fall Down to EB2 and under use in EB2 is available as Fall Across within EB2.

qesehmk

04-17-2014, 10:11 AM

Spec Thanks.
I agree with your take on both the questions I had raised. I am amazed that CO doesn't have a real time visa allocation system. That would eliminate these overages and make it fair for everybody.

ps. moved the discussion in this thread as you suggested. This is a good place for these kind of discussions. Those interested in the data can view it here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2405-FY2013-DOS-Visa-Report).

smuggymba

04-17-2014, 11:39 AM

Smuggymba, if you have a valid H1-B then you can submit a new I-9 to your employer and work on H1-B.
This is an option for you.

No. You cannot.

You must stop working right after your EAD expired and wait for EAD approval. You are lawfully permitted to do so and protected by AoS pending status less status.

I left my H1-B and joined a bigger company Oil & Gas company on EAD in IT for a better role (not the smartest thing to do but I was bored doing the same thing in my old company). I'll apply for EAD early and hope to get it in time but you have to be prepared for everything.

qesehmk

04-17-2014, 12:06 PM

Generally speaking you can if your employer is the same as whoever sponsored your H1B and H1B is still valid. (Which doesn't seem to be the case in your particular case).

In fact you can also capture any unused H1B while you were on EAD.
No. You cannot.

I left my H1-B and joined a bigger company Oil & Gas company on EAD in IT for a better role (not the smartest thing to do but I was bored doing the same thing in my old company). I'll apply for EAD early and hope to get it in time but you have to be prepared for everything.

Pundit Arjun

04-17-2014, 01:11 PM

Generally speaking you can if your employer is the same as whoever sponsored your H1B and H1B is still valid. (Which doesn't seem to be the case in your particular case).

In fact you can also capture any unused H1B while you were on EAD.

Agree with Q. Sorry smuggymba, didn't know of your Work changes while responding.
Good luck to you and hope your approval comes on time. Do keep is updated.

Spectator

04-18-2014, 09:47 PM

For those interested, the USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) has been updated with the February 2014 figures.

kd2008

04-19-2014, 09:08 AM

For those interested, the USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) has been updated with the February 2014 figures.

Spec, what are your thoughts on the receipt volume? EB3 date movement is hardly noticeable on it as I see it. What does this entail for the future date movements?

Spectator

04-19-2014, 04:08 PM

Spec, what are your thoughts on the receipt volume? EB3 date movement is hardly noticeable on it as I see it. What does this entail for the future date movements?kd,

To be honest, I still don't have a great feel for EB3-ROW volumes.

The problem with the dashboard data for NSC and TSC is that Employment I-485 is not all they handle and the other cases (Asylum & Refugee) are not an insignificant amount of the total.

At NSC, Q3 FY2013 Employment I-485 receipts only accounted for 34% of the total. That rose to 38% in Q4 and part of that rise might have been because the EB2-I (and EB3-I) dates moved forward in that quarter.

AT TSC, they have a higher % of EB receipts. In Q3 FY2013, Employment I-485 receipts accounted for 67% of the total. That rose to 75% in Q4.

Overall in FY2013, Employment Based I-485 receipts have accounted for between 46% and 55% of the total receipts at NSC/TSC. The highest % was in Q4.

It is a similar story for completions.

Overall the receipt numbers for EB seem to have held up quite well, if you accept that months where EB2-I and EB3-I moved forward would result in an extra number. They remain higher than, say, the Jan-Apr 2013 period, after which EB3 moved past July 2007 PD and the Cut Off Dates started to move at a faster pace. That is in a period where we might suspect that slow PERM processing times have also slowed EB2-ROW receipts.

All that said, EB3-ROW numbers don't appear to be that large in historical terms.

Numbers seem somewhat larger for 2008/2009 PD compared to 2010/2011. PD2012 seems incomplete to date.

I would not like to guess really, since I have little confidence in the underlying assumptions used to calculate the number. I have some numbers I am using, but I don't feel comfortable sharing them, since they have such a high error margin.

I think EB3-ROW have more than enough cases for their allocation this year - to the extent that the Cut Off Date will probably retrogress before year end if sufficient cases are adjudicated. Next year could be quite interesting.

I would be very interested to hear any thoughts you have on the matter, as well as those of anyone else.

kd2008

04-21-2014, 02:09 PM

kd,

All that said, EB3-ROW numbers don't appear to be that large in historical terms.

Numbers seem somewhat larger for 2008/2009 PD compared to 2010/2011. PD2012 seems incomplete to date.

I would not like to guess really, since I have little confidence in the underlying assumptions used to calculate the number. I have some numbers I am using, but I don't feel comfortable sharing them, since they have such a high error margin.

I think EB3-ROW have more than enough cases for their allocation this year - to the extent that the Cut Off Date will probably retrogress before year end if sufficient cases are adjudicated. Next year could be quite interesting.

I would be very interested to hear any thoughts you have on the matter, as well as those of anyone else.

Spec, I am having a hard time seeing the numbers in the dashboard data that could be attributed to EB3ROW filings that would make retrogression necessary (unless EB2ROW filings are in the toilet - they may be low but not negligible or EB1 filings are low - also unlikely). You also bring up an important aspect about processing. For retrogressing not only filings have to be in huge numbers but so must the adjudications ramp up. I think CO may hang up boots rather than calibrate retrogression - that is he will keep dates where they are till the annual quota is consumed and then make it "U" if necessary - that would be fair to EB3ROW filers. Depending on the processing volume, he may have to do it just one or two months.

Spectator

04-21-2014, 08:35 PM

Spec, I am having a hard time seeing the numbers in the dashboard data that could be attributed to EB3ROW filings that would make retrogression necessary (unless EB2ROW filings are in the toilet - they may be low but not negligible or EB1 filings are low - also unlikely). You also bring up an important aspect about processing. For retrogressing not only filings have to be in huge numbers but so must the adjudications ramp up. I think CO may hang up boots rather than calibrate retrogression - that is he will keep dates where they are till the annual quota is consumed and then make it "U" if necessary - that would be fair to EB3ROW filers. Depending on the processing volume, he may have to do it just one or two months.
kd,

Everybody looks at data differently. As I said before, there are problems determining the underlying EB number of receipts from the I-485 dashboard data, yet alone drilling deeper to the categories. I've already said I am finding it difficult to determine the EB3-ROW demand.

Even so, I see a fairly healthy underlying overall EB numbers within the total EB receipts. Consider the following. Virtually none are EB5, some are EB4 and some are EB1. Currently EB2 has virtually no new EB2-I applications (due to the COD - when dates were more advanced, the numbers were correspondingly higher) and fairly low EB2-ROW/M/P applications are suspected due to PERM processing lengths. There are virtually no new EB3-I cases at present and the majority of EB3-P cases are CP (i.e. no I-485). That leaves a healthy potential number for EB3-ROW/C/M and has done for many months now, since the numbers ramped up when the dates moved forward last year. Some of those were approved last FY.

If EB2-P has lower approvals, then the number of EB3-P approvals can be correspondingly higher within the overall 7% limit. That acts to limit the EB3-ROW/C/M allocation.

Only as secondary evidence, the number of Trackitt approvals for EB3-ROW are already at 90% of last year's total for the full FY (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011?p=45909#post45909).

I'm aware this secondary evidence has potentially quite shaky foundations. I therefore don't wish to put too much weight on this factor.

The Trackitt cases represent a new "post July 2007" crop and it is possible the % representation has changed. On the other hand a fair proportion of last year's approvals also came from this new intake.

I don't think CO really likes to use "Unavailable" as a control mechanism, but I agree that what you say is possible, especially if it is only for 1 or 2 months. I also agree it wouldn't be a bad thing, since it would virtually ensure that EB3 use the entire allocation available to them.

qesehmk

04-21-2014, 08:51 PM

Spec

Generally if you look at nebrasca and texas centers .... that is a good barometer of EB 485 demand. Not perfect but close.

p.s. - As always I always look at relative demand i.e. relative to prior years as opposed to absolute numbers.

kd,

As I said before, there are problems determining the underlying EB number of receipts from the I-485 dashboard data, .

Spectator

04-21-2014, 09:05 PM

Spec

Generally if you look at nebrasca and texas centers .... that is a good barometer of EB 485 demand. Not perfect but close.

p.s. - As always I always look at relative demand i.e. relative to prior years as opposed to absolute numbers.Q,

Agreed. I do look at that as well - first actually.

By that measure, the receipt numbers are very healthy, despite potential downturns in some categories. That also suggests the shortfall is being made up elsewhere.

qesehmk

04-21-2014, 09:12 PM

Spectator

04-21-2014, 09:35 PM

I actually believe that EB3ROW demand has somewhat dried up over last few years because of two reasons ..
a) Since 2007 EB3ROW has stopped receiving spillover and hence EB3ROW backlog started growing and as a result ROW folks have turned more and more to EB2 category.
b) Economy is not healthy.

So although the demand in EB3ROW seems healthy today - it is not because right now EB3ROW is in the phase of clearing backlog. Once it clears up the backlog in 1-2 years that will be the time when we will be able to see the "secular" EB3ROW demand which I believe is going to underutilize their quota.Q,

We are as one on this subject.

The post July 2007 numbers seem much lower than the previous historic annual number and it appears to be a declining number as the PD year increases.

I agree that reflects the same increase seen in the % of applicants applying under EB2 during the same period.

I'm almost positive that EB3-ROW demand will underutilize their allocation next year and may well become Current. The only caveat would be if that in itself acts to attract more applicants under EB3, although many of those might be those who would otherwise have applied under EB2 or EB2-C "downgraders".

I think a third leg is that it has become increasingly difficult for ROW to obtain an H1B, due to over-subsciption of the annual quota and the relative distribution of applications. I can think of other reasons why ROW numbers may have decreased as well.

qesehmk

04-21-2014, 09:50 PM

The only caveat would be if that in itself acts to attract more applicants under EB3, although many of those might be those who would otherwise have applied under EB2 or EB2-C "downgraders".

....
I think a third leg is that it has become increasingly difficult for ROW to obtain an H1B, due to over-subsciption of the annual quota and the relative distribution of applications. I can think of other reasons why ROW numbers may have decreased as well.

Yes indeed Spec. EB3 becoming current will then attract more applicants. But there would be some lag there and so it will remain current at least for a while before retrogressing again!

I am glad that H1 doesn't have a country quota but at the same time I do think that H1 limits should be increased and some fields need to be protected like somebody was talking about social sciences finding it difficult to get H1. But I guess that would be roundabout way to fix misguided economic policy. The absolute right thing is lifting of H1 limits and putting strict controls on what is eligible for H1. As well as completely removing intercompany transfers visa and replacing it with H1 visa without the PERM requirement but having the requirement to pay H1 wages.

Finally I also think that EB1C category should be downgraded to EB2. It is quite close to being abused.

Jagan01

04-22-2014, 01:42 AM

Yes indeed Spec. EB3 becoming current will then attract more applicants. But there would be some lag there and so it will remain current at least for a while before retrogressing again!

I am glad that H1 doesn't have a country quota but at the same time I do think that H1 limits should be increased and some fields need to be protected like somebody was talking about social sciences finding it difficult to get H1. But I guess that would be roundabout way to fix misguided economic policy. The absolute right thing is lifting of H1 limits and putting strict controls on what is eligible for H1. As well as completely removing intercompany transfers visa and replacing it with H1 visa without the PERM requirement but having the requirement to pay H1 wages.

Finally I also think that EB1C category should be downgraded to EB2. It is quite close to being abused.

Q,
Complete agree with you. Especially on the EB1C category. Its being abused badly.

Spec,
EB1C is a real concern and I have been trying to figure out how much they would consume. Trackitt approvals seem very vague. Below are the trackkitt primary approvals.

--------------Trackitt------Real
FY 2012-------302---------9209
FY 2013-------217---------UNKNOWN

I noticed that FY 2013 showed lower approvals for EB1A, EB1B, EB1C as compared to FY 2012. However, the usage was approx the same. Do you think trackitt representation reduced in 2013 ?

This year there are already 200+ primary approvals on trackitt. How many visas you predict EB1 will be using ?

2med_rfe

04-22-2014, 01:23 PM

Hi Gurus, my PD is March 9, 2009 and my chargeability is EB2I. I had received an RFE (Medical - flu vaccine) in 2012, I replied to the RFE, against my attorney's advice, that it is not flu season, so the USCIS waited until it was flu season and issued me a second RFE for not having taken flu vaccine, in October 2012. I had to take flu vaccine for the first time in 15 years (I chose to take the vaccine this time around and get done with it). My case status reads - "Request for Evidence Response Review", this since early November 2012. I would greatly appreciate the Gurus thoughts on -

Based on the posts from justvisiting and Spectator, what COULD happen to my case, will it sit there in the queue if in the event that dates move past my PD of March 9 2009 for EB2I? Will they work on it immediately or keep it in abeyance?

Should I reach out to the Senator for help as soon as I learn that dates moved past my PD.

Please advise!

Thanks!

amulchandra

04-22-2014, 05:54 PM

As much as a pain it is, if USCIS issue RFEs for new medicals in a timely fashion, there is no need for it to disrupt anything regarding processing and visa use.

As far as EB2-I goes, the dates aren't likely to move forward until July at the earliest (although I think it will more likely be August). If the RFEs are issued and replied to in a timely fashion, there will be nothing to stop approval on the same timescale as without the RFE.

It is a problem if USCIS wait to the last minute to issue RFEs, so it is actually encouraging to hear about them so early.

If USCIS are no longer going to extend the validity of the I-693 on a yearly basis, they really need to up the acceptable validity period to at least 2-3 years by way of a new Memo or regulation. People (especially in EB2-I) can become Current multiple times, just over a year apart (or just over year since the date of the last I-693) before their case is adjudicated. It really would not be fair to expect a new I-693 every year under those circumstances.

As best I can tell, the I-693 RFEs have so far only been received by EB3 applicants who first filed in 2007.

Hi Spec,

It looks like the RFEs are mostly reported by EB3 I with PDs up to Dec end 2003. I am wondering by any chance does this mean that EB3 I might move to Dec 2003 in the coming June Bulletin. Does that mean there is going to be a much larger movement in the 4th quarter? Please let us know your opinion on this.

Best Regards
Amul

Spectator

04-22-2014, 08:00 PM

Hi Spec,

It looks like the RFEs are mostly reported by EB3 I with PDs up to Dec end 2003. I am wondering by any chance does this mean that EB3 I might move to Dec 2003 in the coming June Bulletin. Does that mean there is going to be a much larger movement in the 4th quarter? Please let us know your opinion on this.

Best Regards
AmulAmul,

I think covering PDs to the end of December 2003 may be something of a stretch this FY. It would need Fall Across from EB3-ROW.

The last Demand Data (as of Feb 7, 2014) showed 2,775 cases prior to the end of 2003 and the last USCIS Inventory (as of January 2014) showed over 4,000 before the end of 2003. November and December 2003 account for over 2,000 cases alone in the Inventory data.

Those numbers don't include the fairly substantial number of EB3-I approvals that took place in October/November 2013.

I think USCIS are probably looking at more cases than necessary, just in case extra visas should become available, or to ensure they have a head start for the next FY.

talls22

04-23-2014, 12:37 PM

Spectator

04-23-2014, 01:24 PM

Spec/Q,

I have a EB3I PD of Feb 6, 2008 and EB2I PD of Dec 2012. My EB2 I-140 got approved today Apr 23 2014 and have opted for Consular processing in New Delhi. Can you please guide me on next steps? Is there any chance of getting greened this year? Thankstalls,

Congrats on your I-140 approval.

My knowledge of Consular processing is hazy at best. There are some quite good descriptions of the CP process on the internet, which you should search for to get more detail. Here's a few links I found on a quick search:

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/consular-processing
http://www.immihelp.com/immigrant-visa/
http://www.hooyou.com/consularprocess/faq.html
http://algvisas.com/?page_id=28
http://www.hooyou.com/consularprocess/steps.html

Some of the descriptions may be slightly out of date.

In general:

Now your I-140 is approved and CP was designated, USCIS will send the I-140 to the National Visa Center (NVC) for further processing.

Once NVC have completed initial processing, if the PD is likely to become current in a reasonable period, NVC will send a packet asking you to pay the processing fee and provide some information about yourself and any dependents who will CP.

At some point, a second packet will be sent which requires more information - from memory that includes police clearance certificates and the like.

Eventually, an interview will be scheduled. You will have to undergo a medical examination in your home Country prior to attending the interview.

Following a successful interview, you will receive an Immigrant stamp in your passport and a sealed package containing documents related to your case.

You will have 6 months to return to the USA and activate your immigrant visa. At POE, you would be sent to secondary and hand over the sealed package. Once processed, your passport would be endorsed with a temporary I-551 stamp and you would be admitted to the USA as a Legal Permanent Resident. The GC would arrive in the post at a later date.

Please don't rely on the above - it is very generic and from memory.

Best of luck.

PS:- You can choose to switch from CP to AOS (if you are legally present in the USA) if you wish to. I believe all you have to do is file an I-485 when your PD is current. USCIS will then request the I-140 from NVC. This would probably introduce a delay, but you would be able to benefit from AOS specific provisions such as EAD, AP and AC21 I-140 portability after the I-485 has been pending 180 days. You would lose any fees paid to NVC.

qesehmk

04-23-2014, 01:29 PM

Spec/Q,

I have a EB3I PD of Feb 6, 2008 and EB2I PD of Dec 2012. My EB2 I-140 got approved today Apr 23 2014 and have opted for Consular processing in New Delhi. Can you please guide me on next steps? Is there any chance of getting greened this year? Thanks

talls - I can't give any better info than Spec on next steps. However I can say this -- you will be current in August if not September. I think there is very good chance you will get a GC by Dec or earlier. If yours was a normal 485 - I would've said you would get a GC by Sept. But because of the CP thing and the fact that now the case is going to go to NVC I would imagine that might add some delay. But 2014 is your year. Good luck.

talls22

04-23-2014, 01:40 PM

Thanks for the great info! Really appreciate the same. As India PD will cross early 2008 only for 4-5 months starting from Jul/Aug do you think I have any chance to go thru all stages of CP during this time frame?

Other option I was thinking was my wife got H1B in this year lottery so I can travel on H4 and file I-485 from US in Oct. Is this legal/possible solution?

Spectator

04-23-2014, 01:55 PM

Other option I was thinking was my wife got H1B in this year lottery so I can travel on H4 and file I-485 from US in Oct. Is this legal/possible solution?talls,

I had added a PS to my original post to cover that situation. I'll reproduce it here.

You can choose to switch from CP to AOS (if you are legally present in the USA) if you wish to. I believe all you have to do is file an I-485 when your PD is current. USCIS will then request the I-140 from NVC. This would probably introduce a delay, but you would be able to benefit from AOS specific provisions such as EAD, AP and AC21 I-140 portability after the I-485 has been pending 180 days. You would lose any fees paid to NVC.

It would be possible, if the PD remains current.

talls22

04-23-2014, 02:09 PM

talls,

I had added a PS to my original post to cover that situation. I'll reproduce it here.

It would be possible, if the PD remains current.

Awesome! All I need is EAD/AP. I hope PD is current till Nov like last year :-)

Spectator

04-23-2014, 02:48 PM

rs3533

04-23-2014, 02:57 PM

amulchandra

04-23-2014, 04:18 PM

Amul,

I think covering PDs to the end of December 2003 may be something of a stretch this FY. It would need Fall Across from EB3-ROW.

The last Demand Data (as of Feb 7, 2014) showed 2,775 cases prior to the end of 2003 and the last USCIS Inventory (as of January 2014) showed over 4,000 before the end of 2003. November and December 2003 account for over 2,000 cases alone in the Inventory data.

Those numbers don't include the fairly substantial number of EB3-I approvals that took place in October/November 2013.

I think USCIS are probably looking at more cases than necessary, just in case extra visas should become available, or to ensure they have a head start for the next FY.

Thank you very much for your reply Spec. It looks like there is no hope for EB 3 I. I was hoping that this last quarter will bring some good news for long time waiters. This is very disappointing information.

Thanks
Amul

Spectator

04-23-2014, 05:10 PM

Thank you very much for your reply Spec. It looks like there is no hope for EB 3 I. I was hoping that this last quarter will bring some good news for long time waiters. This is very disappointing information.

Thanks
AmulAmul,

Sorry I could not give a better prognosis based on the data I can see.

I could be wrong, so feel free to disagree.

I think we discussed previously that the number of porters to be deducted from EB3-I numbers for PD2003 is likely to be quite low.

Spectator

04-23-2014, 05:20 PM

Hi Spec, Q and other members of this group. You guys are awesome. Cant express enough thanks on the level of analysis done in this forum. I am a new member and have EB2I priority date Sep 22 2008. From all the noise on extra GC's available this year, porting issues as well as less spill over from EB2 ROW, I am feeling the dates may not hit Sep 2008 at all like previous year and would reverse the course in Nov of this year? Am I being too pessimistic or your calculations are taking the priority date for EB2I to at least start of 2009?rs3533,

Welcome to the forum.

I think you are being quite pessimistic.

I'm fairly confident that the Cut Off Dates will move past your PD this FY even in a fairly poor scenario.

The faster processing by DOL has really started a bit too late to majorly impact EB2-ROW approvals this FY. I don't think EB1 use will increase sufficiently to endanger your PD.

The trick is to receive an approval while the dates remain current.

Good luck.

imdeng

04-23-2014, 08:58 PM

It is likely that you will be current this FY. Be ready for whatever RFE (medical, EVL, BC etc) that may land your way. I happen to be more optimistic about EB2I movement this year than most. Even if I were to be more pessimistic, I would imagine that Sept 2008 is within reach.

Hi Spec, Q and other members of this group. You guys are awesome. Cant express enough thanks on the level of analysis done in this forum. I am a new member and have EB2I priority date Sep 22 2008. From all the noise on extra GC's available this year, porting issues as well as less spill over from EB2 ROW, I am feeling the dates may not hit Sep 2008 at all like previous year and would reverse the course in Nov of this year? Am I being too pessimistic or your calculations are taking the priority date for EB2I to atleast start of 2009?

qesehmk

04-23-2014, 09:13 PM

rs .. welcome to forum. The dates will hit Sep 2008. I think they may hit Q1 2009. But anything beyond looks difficult to me.
Hi Spec, Q and other members of this group. You guys are awesome. Cant express enough thanks on the level of analysis done in this forum. I am a new member and have EB2I priority date Sep 22 2008. From all the noise on extra GC's available this year, porting issues as well as less spill over from EB2 ROW, I am feeling the dates may not hit Sep 2008 at all like previous year and would reverse the course in Nov of this year? Am I being too pessimistic or your calculations are taking the priority date for EB2I to atleast start of 2009?

rs3533

04-24-2014, 09:43 AM

rs .. welcome to forum. The dates will hit Sep 2008. I think they may hit Q1 2009. But anything beyond looks difficult to me.

Hi Guys

Thanks for making me optimistic from pessimistic overnight. Past 8 yrs have been very brutal because of immigration issues ranging from admin processing on h1b stamping to RFE's etc. My career has been stand still despite investing on my MBA from top univ. Every morning when I get up , I wonder if it is worth waiting for all this. I hate going to office and work does not excite me. As I can see you have mastered the calculations so I will stay put.

Any recomendations on where to get birth certificate translated into english that is acceptable to USCIS. Also how else I have to be prepared for 485 ?

Regards

vizcard

04-24-2014, 12:43 PM

I've moved the discussion about Medical Exam Validity and RFE for Expiring Medical Exams to its own thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2409-Possible-Change-in-Medical-Exam-Validity-and-RFE-For-Expiring-Medical-Exam).

Can someone respond to my post on the Med Exam thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2409-Possible-Change-in-Medical-Exam-Validity-and-RFE-For-Expiring-Medical-Exam?p=45986#post45986)

YTeleven

04-24-2014, 02:07 PM

Hi Spec,

It looks like the RFEs are mostly reported by EB3 I with PDs up to Dec end 2003. I am wondering by any chance does this mean that EB3 I might move to Dec 2003 in the coming June Bulletin. Does that mean there is going to be a much larger movement in the 4th quarter? Please let us know your opinion on this.

Best Regards
Amul

Amul,

Please check this.. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=45855#post45855
Per my calculations, EB3I CY2003 I-485 applications will be completed by Sep'14 or Nov'14 , so you can expect the PD movement till Dec'03 during that time around and NOT in June VB.
If we get the huge spillover for EB3I from EB3ROW like last year then you might see the dates moving earlier.

amulchandra

04-24-2014, 04:18 PM

Amul,

Please check this.. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=45855#post45855
Per my calculations, EB3I FY2003 applications will be completed by Sep'14 or Nov'14 , so you can expect the PD movement till Dec'03 during that time around and NOT in June VB.
If we get the huge spillover for EB3I from EB3ROW like last year then you might see the dates moving earlier.

Thank you very much for your response YT. I hope your words come true and EB3 I indeed receives some spillover this year.

Best Regards
Amul

ROCK72

04-24-2014, 06:34 PM

Here's my predictions based on decrease in demand for EB3I last 4 years (quota + portings+withdrawals/denials)

Date of Pending Inventory India EB3 Inventory Annual Decrease/year Mean Decrease (in 4 years)
Jan-10 60874 NA 7202
Jan-11 58440 2434
Jan-12 51160 7280
Jan-13 45246 5914
Jan-14 32066 13180
Total Decrease -> 28808 (in 4 years)

Optimistic Conservative Pessimistic
Reduction in Demand -> 13,314 7,437 5,674
15-Nov-04 15-Apr-04 01-Mar-04

ksur23

04-25-2014, 06:25 PM

Found this in ambals.blogspot.com

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

According to the blogger 16k spillovers will take EB2I to March '09.

1. What is realistically possible for EB2I spillovers in FY 2014?

2. Around what spillover range will EB2I end up March or later? 12-13k? 16-17k? beyond 17k?

3. Is March 09 or beyond realistic?

Disclaimer: My pd is jan 2009 and hence the interest in likelihood of Q1 2009 EB2I movement.

p.s. Thanks to all for the matured discussion, very respectful here despite the anonymity which tends to evoke the basest instincts among internet denizens.

bzabza

04-25-2014, 06:55 PM

Spectator

04-25-2014, 07:31 PM

According to the blogger 16k spillovers will take EB2I to March '09.

1. What is realistically possible for EB2I spillovers in FY 2014?

2. Around what spillover range will EB2I end up March or later? 12-13k? 16-17k? beyond 17k?

3. Is March 09 or beyond realistic?The figures, with some more detail, are also available here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards) on the forum.

My personal opinion is that I think it would be more accurate to say, x amount more approvals this FY are required.

The blog post does not appear to account for those approvals already made in October/November 2013. I think the numbers presented therefore underestimate the total approvals required this FY to reach the Cut Off dates mentioned.

The actual number required to reach a Cut Off date of 01MAR09 is probably more like 18-20k plus any further porting cases from EB3 who already have an I-485 pending less cases that fall through to next year.

With the possibility of large Fall Across from EB2-WW, over 20k total approvals for EB2-I are possible.

I would start to hesitate about any movement much beyond March 2009, at least until I can better understand what EB2-WW and EB1 might do in the second half of the FY.

YTeleven

04-25-2014, 09:02 PM

1. What is realistically possible for EB2I spillovers in FY 2014?

2. Around what spillover range will EB2I end up March or later? 12-13k? 16-17k? beyond 17k?

3. Is March 09 or beyond realistic?

Check this post too...it considers the visas allocated for FY14 till Feb'14.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=45804#post45804

surya1975

04-26-2014, 11:12 AM

The figures, with some more detail, are also available here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards) on the forum.

My personal opinion is that I think it would be more accurate to say, x amount more approvals this FY are required.

The blog post does not appear to account for those approvals already made in October/November 2013. I think the numbers presented therefore underestimate the total approvals required this FY to reach the Cut Off dates mentioned.

The actual number required to reach a Cut Off date of 01MAR09 is probably more like 18-20k plus any further porting cases from EB3 who already have an I-485 pending less cases that fall through to next year.

With the possibility of large Fall Across from EB2-WW, over 20k total approvals for EB2-I are possible.

I would start to hesitate about any movement much beyond March 2009, at least until I can better understand what EB2-WW and EB1 might do in the second half of the FY.

Spec, you mean to say PD max movement will be March 2009 in FY 2014?

triplet

04-27-2014, 02:40 PM

Welcome back Spec! Good to see you back, didn't think you were coming back this time. Look forward to your calculations and predictions for this year's movement.

triplet

04-27-2014, 02:44 PM

Spec, you mean to say PD max movement will be March 2009 in FY 2014?

I think March is on the optimistic side of things, that's what I have gathered from the ongoing analysis on where the dates might end up this year. With so many factors still unclear it is hard to say, let us wait another month or two to find out how they will be calibrating movement. Good luck to you Surya.

triplet

04-27-2014, 03:16 PM

I know there are plenty of us who have a chance of breaking through this year, if medical tests are indeed to be renewed, I wonder what impact this will have on date movement.

surya1975

04-27-2014, 05:56 PM

I think March is on the optimistic side of things, that's what I have gathered from the ongoing analysis on where the dates might end up this year. With so many factors still unclear it is hard to say, let us wait another month or two to find out how they will be calibrating movement. Good luck to you Surya.

Thank you Triplet...! my PD is 6/3/09. I think I have to wait one more FY.

I love this site. All seniors answers help a lot to get relief from GC/job tensions and also help to plan future.

gcpursuit

04-28-2014, 01:57 PM

Saw this on oh-law firm website. Waiting for comments from the experts here.

04/28/2014: Unofficial Prediction of EB Visa Cut-Off Dates Ahead

According to the AILA, the following are the State Department's prediction for EB visa date movement for the rest of the FY 2014. It is just a rough prediction and the actual dates can turn out to be a little different:
EB-2 India: As we reported a number of times, the cut-date is likely to move forward in either August or September to either January 1, 2008 or any date in 2008 in order to prevent waste of unused EB-2 numbers.
EB-3: Worldwide EB-3 can even move backward as early as May or June 2014
EB-3: China may also move backward as early as May or June 2014 probably caused by high down grade demand
Beware.

qesehmk

04-28-2014, 02:13 PM

Thanks gcpursuit. There could be other things ... but one thing that quickly catches my eye is EB2I prediction. I believe the date has to move much farther than Jan 1 2008. Possibly 1 year ahead of that.

Saw this on oh-law firm website. Waiting for comments from the experts here.

04/28/2014: Unofficial Prediction of EB Visa Cut-Off Dates Ahead

According to the AILA, the following are the State Department's prediction for EB visa date movement for the rest of the FY 2014. It is just a rough prediction and the actual dates can turn out to be a little different:
EB-2 India: As we reported a number of times, the cut-date is likely to move forward in either August or September to either January 1, 2008 or any date in 2008 in order to prevent waste of unused EB-2 numbers.
EB-3: Worldwide EB-3 can even move backward as early as May or June 2014
EB-3: China may also move backward as early as May or June 2014 probably caused by high down grade demand
Beware.

sairam09

04-28-2014, 02:16 PM

vizcard

04-28-2014, 03:02 PM

rs3533

04-28-2014, 03:17 PM

Even 15K Allocation to EB2I in FY 2014 should take the dates beyond 1/1/2008 according to calculations done here.

tatikonda

04-28-2014, 03:22 PM

This is not a kind of news one would expect from AILA. it is obviously that dates will dates will move in either Aug or Sept ... or any date in 2008 .

Saw this on oh-law firm website. Waiting for comments from the experts here.

04/28/2014: Unofficial Prediction of EB Visa Cut-Off Dates Ahead

According to the AILA, the following are the State Department's prediction for EB visa date movement for the rest of the FY 2014. It is just a rough prediction and the actual dates can turn out to be a little different:
EB-2 India: As we reported a number of times, the cut-date is likely to move forward in either August or September to either January 1, 2008 or any date in 2008 in order to prevent waste of unused EB-2 numbers.
EB-3: Worldwide EB-3 can even move backward as early as May or June 2014
EB-3: China may also move backward as early as May or June 2014 probably caused by high down grade demand
Beware.

EB2-03252009

04-28-2014, 07:36 PM

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=45804#post45804

above link says there will be 21K SO, if its true, will the cut off be April 1st 2009?

The figures, with some more detail, are also available here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards) on the forum.

My personal opinion is that I think it would be more accurate to say, x amount more approvals this FY are required.

The blog post does not appear to account for those approvals already made in October/November 2013. I think the numbers presented therefore underestimate the total approvals required this FY to reach the Cut Off dates mentioned.

The actual number required to reach a Cut Off date of 01MAR09 is probably more like 18-20k plus any further porting cases from EB3 who already have an I-485 pending less cases that fall through to next year.

With the possibility of large Fall Across from EB2-WW, over 20k total approvals for EB2-I are possible.

I would start to hesitate about any movement much beyond March 2009, at least until I can better understand what EB2-WW and EB1 might do in the second half of the FY.

sairam09

04-29-2014, 10:35 AM

PD2008AUG25

04-29-2014, 02:31 PM

One lawyer says:

#DOS states there will be no movement in #EB-2 dates until July & demand for #EB-3 has increased, so no progression in visa dates for now.

https://twitter.com/lawspeak/statuses/461210725642285057

I have no idea of original source.

If it means that there will be a movement in July, then it's a good news. Most people are rooting for August.

Spectator

04-29-2014, 04:06 PM

Spec any comments from your side? Post update from CO with AILA?I go away for a few days and it all kicks off!

I need to look at what has been said and published and then I will reply, probably tomorrow sometime.

In the meantime, here's some more comprehensive reporting than the Oh site.

CILawgroup (http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/04/29/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-comments-by-charles-oppenheim-eb-2-india-to-advance-finally-april-2014/) (probably the most comprehensive, since it also mentions FB.
WSM (http://www.wsmimmigration.com/visa-retrogression-update%3A--china-eb%113,-india-eb%112-and-worldwide-eb%113-alert-/)
ILW Blog (http://blogs.ilw.com/entry.php?8038-VISA%20BULLETIN%20PREDICTIONS%20FOR%20SUMMER%20201 4)

PS to Q.

I am having some difficulty accessing the Calculations thread while signed on - it is hanging on the redirection. I can access it (sort of) by replying to a post, then signing on when asked, but I still can't read the thread while signed on.

qesehmk

04-29-2014, 05:13 PM

Spec - I am sorry ... I have caused whatever this is. I was fiddling with some php settings and must have screwed up things. Let me look into it.
p.s. Fixed it i guess. Forgot to include directory path in quotes in php.ini. But php is quite forgiving. It runs as long as it can with errors!

PS to Q.

I am having some difficulty accessing the Calculations thread while signed on - it is hanging on the redirection. I can access it (sort of) by replying to a post, then signing on when asked, but I still can't read the thread while signed on.

Spectator

04-29-2014, 07:10 PM

Spec - I am sorry ... I have caused whatever this is. I was fiddling with some php settings and must have screwed up things. Let me look into it.
p.s. Fixed it i guess. Forgot to include directory path in quotes in php.ini. But php is quite forgiving. It runs as long as it can with errors!Q,

No problem. I just wanted to let you know in case it was affecting other people as well.

I'm glad you were able to identify the cause and rectify it.

It's all working correctly for me now.

Thanks for the swift resolution.

Jagan01

04-29-2014, 07:40 PM

Q,

No problem. I just wanted to let you know in case it was affecting other people as well.

I'm glad you were able to identify the cause and rectify it.

It's all working correctly for me now.

Thanks for the swift resolution.

When CO says that EB5 may retrogress then we can be sure that no SO from EB5. In fact EB4 spillover might be consumed by EB5. My take, we get 3k from EB4 as some of the EB4 spillover will be consumed by EB5.
-----------------
EB1 would yield some spillover but the usage is higher than previous year. Last year EB1 used 40k and the remaining (most of the excess from FB) came to EB2. Any takes on the number... may be we get 1k from EB1.
-----------------
I somehow feel that CO has not factored in the low PERM approvals. Nobody is sure about the EB2WW numbers. In fact the recent surge in PERM certifications makes this very very dynamic. My take would be that EB2WW would consume 27k and remaining comes to EB2I. We can expect 10k (7k + 3k excess from FB). Any opinions ?
----------------
EB2I might get 3k+1k+10k = 14k spillover. (17.5k total)
----------------
With 6k already consumed, we might have 11.5k remaining. That would be good to clear demand until mid Dec 2008. It depends on CO as to where he puts the dates at.
----------------
My gut feeling Jan-Feb 2009
---------------

Spectator

04-29-2014, 09:05 PM

In fact EB4 spillover might be consumed by EB5. There is no provision in law for EB5 to use spare visas from EB4.

(4) Certain special immigrants. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified special immigrants described in section 101(a)(27) (other than those described in subparagraph (A) or (B) thereof), of which not more than 5,000 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants described in subclause (II) or (III) of section 101(a)(27)(C)(ii) , 2/ and not more than 100 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants, excluding spouses and children, who are described in section 101(a)(27)(M) .

Spare visas from EB4 (and EB5) Fall Up directly to EB1.

(1) Priority workers. - Visas shall first be made available in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraphs (4) and (5), to qualified immigrants who are aliens described in any of the following subparagraphs (A) through (C):

YTeleven

04-29-2014, 09:08 PM

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=45804#post45804

above link says there will be 21K SO, if its true, will the cut off be April 1st 2009?

Post CO's comments with AILA. Still I believe EB2-I will get the sufficient no of visas to move the PDs into CY2009.
Here is updated version of my document:

Spectator

04-29-2014, 09:22 PM

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months. Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-1. This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year. Also, it is too early in the fiscal year to be able to determine how many unused EB-1 visa numbers there will be to “drop down” into the EB-2 category.

The expectation that EB1 will remain current should not be a surprise, even to those who think EB1 usage is high this year.

EB1 has around 43k visas plus any additional Fall Up from EB4 and EB5. Even if EB5 does not contribute any Fall Up, EB4 would contribute around 4k if use were similar to last year.

I don’t think many people think EB1 is capable of using more than 47k – the amount required to force retrogression for EB1.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

No surprise here. I don’t think any one believes EB2-ROW will use anywhere near their allocation this year. The main question would be how much Fall Across from EB2-ROW might be available to EB2-India.

EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category has seen increased demand over the past few months (due to the significant movements) and it is unlikely that there will be forward movement in the short term. In fact, if demand continues at its current pace, there may be a retrogression as early as June 2014. Retrogression is possible for the last quarter of fiscal year 2014 (Jul-Sep 2014) and this is a call for all EB-3 ROW applicants who are current to file their I-485s as soon as possible.

This is no surprise to me and I have previously forecast that retrogression may be necessary for EB3-ROW.

EB-3 China. As a result of many EB-2 China applicants “downgrading” to EB-3 it is expected that EB-3 China will see some retrogression over the next month or two.

As it says, use by EB2-China who are downgrading has increased demand for EB3-China. In addition, no individual Country can have a Cut Off Date ahead of the Worldwide date for ROW. If EB3-ROW retrogress, EB3-China must also retrogress to that date.

What this means for EB3-India, is that there is virtually no chance of spare Fall Across visas in EB3. EB3-India will move very slowly for the remainder of the FY.

EB-5 China. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is high and a cutoff date may be introduced in August or September. Retrogression for EB-5 China is “inevitable” given the high number of EB-5 pending applications for Chinese nationals.

Should retrogression of EB5-China be necessary, it means EB5 will use their entire 10.6k allocation and no Fall Up to EB1 will be available.

CO has mentioned the possibility before and it has not been necessary to date. That may still be the case this year as well.

As of November 1, 2013, State Dept. provided the following statistical information regarding active applications at the National Visa Center - total 4,748:

• 966 cases have priority dates in 2011 (20.35%);
• 2,969 cases have priority dates in 2012 (62.53%); and
• 813 cases have priority dates in 2013 (17.12%).

EB-2 India. This is the major headline from Mr. Oppenheim’s comments – EB-2 India is likely to move forward to January 1, 2008 during the August or (more likely) September Visa Bulletin. This movement will aim to utilize all of the available visa numbers for the fiscal year that may be unused by other categories (possibly 5,000 or more, but fewer compared to prior years).

I note no other article has mentioned the 5,000 figure, so I take that with a very large pinch of salt. In fact, I would say it appears erroneous.

I will say that January 1, 2008 seems an extraordinarily early Cut off Date to be mentioning, even for someone as conservative as CO. I do wonder whether there is a misunderstanding from the AILA representatives present.

The previous update to this document (AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Nov. 27, 2013) in November 2013 mentioned a return to around December 2008 in August/September 2014.

Even increased EB1 use, allied to complete use of the EB5 allocation, would not be sufficient to move the dates back that far (Jan 2008) in my opinion.

Another variable would be porting cases. Only those who already have an I-485 pending stand any chance of approval in an August /September time frame. That really means:

a) Cases with a PD of July 2007 or earlier who have interfiled since dates retrogressed until they move forward again.
b) New cases submitted up to November 2013 when dates were last current but who were not approved in the last window.

Another variable is EB2-WW use. Unless, a very special effort is made to process PERM certified cases beyond March 2014 through to I-485 approval, it is difficult to see how the date could go back that far.

Finally, there is the question of EB2-I use to date. Opinions vary, but I use a more aggressive figure than most.

I don’t believe I indulge in wishful thinking – in fact I tend to err on the pessimistic side compared to most other people.

Even I would say a fairly late 2008 Cut Off Date is far more likely, even in a poor scenario.

krishn

04-29-2014, 09:59 PM

suninphx

04-29-2014, 11:08 PM

Thanks Spec!

helooo

04-30-2014, 08:56 AM

The expectation that EB1 will remain current should not be a surprise, even to those who think EB1 usage is high this year.

EB1 has around 43k visas plus any additional Fall Up from EB4 and EB5. Even if EB5 does not contribute any Fall Up, EB4 would contribute around 4k if use were similar to last year.

I don’t think many people think EB1 is capable of using more than 47k – the amount required to force retrogression for EB1.

No surprise here. I don’t think any one believes EB2-ROW will use anywhere near their allocation this year. The main question would be how much Fall Across from EB2-ROW might be available to EB2-India.

This is no surprise to me and I have previously forecast that retrogression may be necessary for EB3-ROW.

As it says, use by EB2-China who are downgrading has increased demand for EB3-China. In addition, no individual Country can have a Cut Off Date ahead of the Worldwide date for ROW. If EB3-ROW retrogress, EB3-China must also retrogress to that date.

What this means for EB3-India, is that there is virtually no chance of spare Fall Across visas in EB3. EB3-India will move very slowly for the remainder of the FY.

Should retrogression of EB5-China be necessary, it means EB5 will use their entire 10.6k allocation and no Fall Up to EB1 will be available.

CO has mentioned the possibility before and it has not been necessary to date. That may still be the case this year as well.

As of November 1, 2013, State Dept. provided the following statistical information regarding active applications at the National Visa Center - total 4,748:

• 966 cases have priority dates in 2011 (20.35%);
• 2,969 cases have priority dates in 2012 (62.53%); and
• 813 cases have priority dates in 2013 (17.12%).

I note no other article has mentioned the 5,000 figure, so I take that with a very large pinch of salt. In fact, I would say it appears erroneous.

I will say that January 1, 2008 seems an extraordinarily early Cut off Date to be mentioning, even for someone as conservative as CO. I do wonder whether there is a misunderstanding from the AILA representatives present.

The previous update to this document (AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Nov. 27, 2013) in November 2013 mentioned a return to around December 2008 in August/September 2014.

Even increased EB1 use, allied to complete use of the EB5 allocation, would not be sufficient to move the dates back that far (Jan 2008) in my opinion.

Another variable would be porting cases. Only those who already have an I-485 pending stand any chance of approval in an August /September time frame. That really means:

a) Cases with a PD of July 2007 or earlier who have interfiled since dates retrogressed until they move forward again.
b) New cases submitted up to November 2013 when dates were last current but who were not approved in the last window.

Another variable is EB2-WW use. Unless, a very special effort is made to process PERM certified cases beyond March 2014 through to I-485 approval, it is difficult to see how the date could go back that far.

Finally, there is the question of EB2-I use to date. Opinions vary, but I use a more aggressive figure than most.

I don’t believe I indulge in wishful thinking – in fact I tend to err on the pessimistic side compared to most other people.

Even I would say a fairly late 2008 Cut Off Date is far more likely, even in a poor scenario.
Thank You Spec!If you predict late 2008 then it should move around Jan 2009 as you are the most Conservative. AILA might have misunderstood what CO said.Is there any other way to communicate with CO and present him some real time nos?

Jagan01

04-30-2014, 12:56 PM

There is no provision in law for EB5 to use spare visas from EB4.

Spare visas from EB4 (and EB5) Fall Up directly to EB1.

Spec,

Thanks for the information. Before posting I was not clear about this. I thought of asking the question but then assumed that EB4 spillover will go to EB5. Thanks again.

civilengineer

04-30-2014, 01:22 PM

Spec - I am sorry ... I have caused whatever this is. I was fiddling with some php settings and must have screwed up things. Let me look into it.
p.s. Fixed it i guess. Forgot to include directory path in quotes in php.ini. But php is quite forgiving. It runs as long as it can with errors!

I was unable to get to the threads right after I upgraded to Firefox 29 and I thought it might have been Firefox causing the issue. They are working now with Firefox 29.

Spectator

04-30-2014, 01:48 PM

Apologies for the off topic post.

I was unable to get to the threads right after I upgraded to Firefox 29 and I thought it might have been Firefox causing the issue. They are working now with Firefox 29.civilengineer,

I too upgraded to Firefox 29 last night.

I thought I would have to revert to 28 since I am not a fan of what they have done with Australis. To my personal taste, they couldn't have made it more ugly and I lost functionality by usability.

Fortunately, I had the Classic Theme Restorer Add On installed within 5 minutes and all is good again.

venkat

04-30-2014, 02:39 PM

Spectator

04-30-2014, 03:12 PM

Spec, Do you think the fact that companies like TCS (Tata Consultancy Services) who in their history never processed Green Cards have started processing EB1 for their more senior folks have any effect on overall EB1 usage. I've 3 friends in TCS and all of them got theirs GCs in EB1 category in the last 1 month or so. My guess is approximately 2000-3000 TCS people will get it before September 30th.

Hope this doesn't impact people with PDs till Q1 2009.I do not doubt that there will be increased EB1 use this year.

The question is how much this might be.

USCIS do not release information, which leaves Trackitt as the only real source of information.

However, this is unreliable when looking at EB1 as a whole. About 85% (90% for EB1C) of EB1 approvals on Trackitt are for people with Indian Chargeability and all the discussion seems to focus on increased use by Indian MNC. The numbers on Trackitt for other Countries are far too small to draw similar inferences.

EB1-India only represents about 25% (which might rise towards 30%) of total EB1 approvals.

In FY2012, 57.25% of primary approvals were for EB1C according to DHS figures. Spreading dependents at the same % and using the same % for India in FY2013 would mean about 5.5k EB1 approvals for India in FY2013 were for EB1C out of 9.6k total.

Even a very large % increase in EB1C-India approvals in FY2014 only amounts to a few thousand.

Besides that, EB1 has seen "lumpy" approval patterns before and the increased use in the first half of the year may not be sustained. I suspect it will stay somewhat elevated due to the slow processing at the Service Centers.

YTeleven

04-30-2014, 04:40 PM

I do not doubt that there will be increased EB1 use this year.

The question is how much this might be.

USCIS do not release information, which leaves Trackitt as the only real source of information.

However, this is unreliable when looking at EB1 as a whole. About 85% (90% for EB1C) of EB1 approvals on Trackitt are for people with Indian Chargeability and all the discussion seems to focus on increased use by Indian MNC. The numbers on Trackitt for other Countries are far too small to draw similar inferences.

EB1-India only represents about 25% (which might rise towards 30%) of total EB1 approvals.

In FY2012, 57.25% of primary approvals were for EB1C according to DHS figures. Spreading dependents at the same % and using the same % for India in FY2013 would mean about 5.5k EB1 approvals for India in FY2013 were for EB1C out of 9.6k total.

Even a very large % increase in EB1C-India approvals in FY2014 only amounts to a few thousand.

Besides that, EB1 has seen "lumpy" approval patterns before and the increased use in the first half of the year may not be sustained. I suspect it will stay somewhat elevated due to the slow processing at the Service Centers.

Spec,

I've simulated the worst case scenario of NO SO from EB1 for FY14 due to heavy consumptionof EB1C visas by India and still ended up with enough visas for EB2-I to move the PDs to Jan'09.
The key here was the low EB2-ROW demand which was with in the reasonable limits.

Please comment on this document:

krishn

04-30-2014, 04:58 PM

what could be the EB3 row yearly total from 2009 to 2012(or till 2013 august) ?

is it possible to subtract yearly eb2row approvals from perm approvals and arrive at approximate eb3-ROW yearly totals ?
looking at the eb2 row yearly approvals and perm approvals for last 5 years, the eb3row total is < 30k from 2k9 to now, is my guesstimate or am way too off ?

Guru's,

I have pulled in perm row approval numbers from data from << http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations >>

The EB2 row approval numbers from << http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html >>

can we guesstimate how many eb3 row I-485 applications could be filed between 2008 - 2013 ??

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589

EB2 Row Approvals 42,588 28612 23,158 28613 20756 34849

EB2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China-mainland 6,955 3,045 6,505 8,257 5,858 3,627
china-Taiwan 2,346 1,481 1,269 1,548 1,022 1,636
india 14,806 10,106 19,961 23,997 19,726 17,193
philipines 2,057 1,850 2,162 3,242 2,408 4,439
mexico 1,347 922 817 1,147 823 1,717
eb2 total 70,099 46,016 53,872 66,804 50,593 63,461
row 42,588 28,612 23,158 28,613 20,756 34,849

Spectator

04-30-2014, 05:21 PM

Spec,

I've simulated the worst case scenario of NO SO from EB1 for FY14 due to heavy consumption of EB1C visas by India and still ended up with enough visas for EB2-I to move the PDs to Jan'09.
The key here was the low EB2-ROW demand which was with in the reasonable limits.

Please comment on this document:YT,

Based on your figures, I would come to a Cut off Date slightly earlier than you for 17k available to EB2-I, even if I allow a contingency when setting the Cut Off Date. Primarily, I suspect that is because of different assumptions made elsewhere on approvals to date and further porting approvals to come. I can therefore understand how you reached a Cut Off Date of 01JAN09.

At 22.5k, I would say that is maybe at the lower end of EB2-WW possibilities (although not inconceivably so) if you want to look at a very worst case scenario.

bzabza

04-30-2014, 11:28 PM

Gurus,

I am thinking for a job move. Any suggestions? My PD is July-21-2008.

Appreciate your inputs.

Spectator

05-01-2014, 07:59 AM

The All Forms (http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-all-uscis-application-and-petition-form-types) and Adjustment of Status (Form I-485 Application) (http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-form-i-485-application-adjustment-status) data for Q1 FY2014 have been published.

On an unrelated note, DOL certified 6,833 PERM applications in April 2014, continuing their increased pace in recent months.

FY2014 PERM Certifications

October --- 1,422
November -- 3,307
December -- 4,343
January --- 4,866
February -- 4,881
March ----- 7,381
April ----- 6,833

Total ---- 33,033

This compares to 35,202 certifications for the whole of FY2013.

sairam09

05-01-2014, 08:05 AM

Spec,

Does this help you to predict more accurate? Appreciate your inputs!.

shreyasai2004

05-01-2014, 08:22 AM

Spec,

Does this help you to predict more accurate? Appreciate your inputs!.

Did any one saw murthy.com prediction is FY 2014 EB2 I is Jan 2008.
http://www.murthy.com/2014/05/01/official-predictions-on-priority-date-movement-for-fy14/

my PD is July 29th 2008 so I need to wait for another year or 2????

sairam09

05-01-2014, 08:39 AM

Murthy saying is totally different from other firms have posted as indicated by Spec in previous page.

newguy

05-01-2014, 09:26 AM

qesehmk

05-01-2014, 10:04 AM

DOS predictions are always very conservative. Lawyers' predictions are not really predictions - generally they repeat what DOS tells them.

There are lots of predictions around - some bullish some bearish. My advice - if any - on whom to follow - would be to look for some rationale and consistency. While internet gives us access to information - it also gives access to junk information. So it is worthwhile to not just read prediction but also try to understand the rationale behind it.

Hi Gurus,

There is a lot of confusion and disappointment for many of the EB2-I folks whose date is in 2008 and early 2009 after many law firms released the predictions from DOS.
Does any one have similar experience in the past about the DOS predictions going wrong as many gurus are expecting the priority date will at least move to Dec 2008.
Are we missing any important data? My PD is in Sep 2008 and a first time filer..

Thanks

Spectator

05-01-2014, 10:11 AM

Hi Gurus,

There is a lot of confusion and disappointment for many of the EB2-I folks whose date is in 2008 and early 2009 after many law firms released the predictions from DOS.
Does any one have similar experience in the past about the DOS predictions going wrong as many gurus are expecting the priority date will at least move to Dec 2008.
Are we missing any important data? My PD is in Sep 2008 and a first time filer..

Thanksnewguy,

I understand people's anxiety.

Other than when CO said he hoped to return Cut Off Dates to 2010 (for which he was crucified later), generally he tends to under promise and over deliver.

Of course there is a chance that we are unaware of an important piece of information that CO has.

At the same time, CO does not have all the information he requires either. 85-90% of EB cases are processed by USCIS, so he is reliant on them for information.

CO has regularly bemoaned the lack of information on future demand from USCIS. In particular, he has mentioned several times that USCIS are unable to provide information on future demand from those upgrading from EB3 to EB2. He only sees that demand when USCIS approve the case.

In the past, USCIS has provided information to DOS that was just plain wrong, such as when they suggested EB1 approvals in FY2012 would remain low and that there was little demand from EB2-IC as the Cut off Dates moved forward. That led to over allocation of visa numbers to EB2-IC and retrogression of EB2-WW in FY2012.

It is a fact that EB2-ROW PERM certifications have been lower than normal in the period that should supply I-485 approvals this FY. The only danger would be very quick processing of the I-485 by USCIS combined with a very large increase in PP of the I-140. CO can see high EB1 and EB5 use at present and uncertain EB2-ROW use - I think he wants to keep his options open and not disappoint people by making promises he can't keep.

My take is that the statements can be taken as very generic in nature, so much so that they really mean nothing. I certainly hope that is the case.

sairam09

05-01-2014, 10:12 AM

Makes sense Q, Your advice is awesome!

triplet

05-02-2014, 03:40 PM

Do we expect retrogression for EB2 to mimic last year? Will we see a movement forward in the August bulletin and then retrogression in December? If that's the case then there should be ample time to approve pending applications. (Even if revised medicals are requested or RFE for birth certificates etc.)

triplet

05-02-2014, 03:43 PM

DOS predictions are always very conservative. Lawyers' predictions are not really predictions - generally they repeat what DOS tells them.

Very true! Lawyers like to play it safe and it is easy to understand why. After all there job is to make sure everything gets filed the right way

triplet

05-02-2014, 03:46 PM

Hi Gurus,

Are we missing any important data? My PD is in Sep 2008 and a first time filer..

Thanks

You can be assured of having GC by October, good luck new guy!

qesehmk

05-02-2014, 03:48 PM

Without a doubt - EB2 is going to get thrown back in time come Dec 2014.

This has become quite a ritual now - A) retro EB2 to ridiculous time period and B) come July move them ahead to some sensible time period.

Do we expect retrogression for EB2 to mimic last year? Will we see a movement forward in the August bulletin and then retrogression in December? If that's the case then there should be ample time to approve pending applications. (Even if revised medicals are requested or RFE for birth certificates etc.)

triplet

05-02-2014, 03:48 PM

Murthy saying is totally different from other firms have posted as indicated by Spec in previous page.

Murthy is always uber conservative/cautious, I believe in the data on this forum, Q hit it right on the mark last year with dates moving to June 2008.

triplet

05-02-2014, 03:50 PM

Without a doubt - EB2 is going to get thrown back in time come Dec 2014.

This has become quite a ritual now - A) retro EB2 to ridiculous time period and B) come July move them ahead to some sensible time period.

Thanks Q, yeah, I just hope I can make it through this year along with some of the others in the forum who have dates in the latter half of 2008

PD2008AUG25

05-02-2014, 04:34 PM

qesehmk

05-02-2014, 04:53 PM

Thanks Q, yeah, I just hope I can make it through this year along with some of the others in the forum who have dates in the latter half of 2008

I was hoping to get GC this year, but I am preparing to wait for one more year. This is getting crazy. It would be be 7 years from PD next year.

As far as EB2 is concerned - Most 2008 folks should get through this cycle. PD2008 - unless your case has some issues - I would be really surprised if you don't get a GC this year.

vizcard

05-05-2014, 12:30 PM

I hope it's sooner rather than later this fiscal year. The most challenging thing about being on EAD is explaining it to some recruiters who are trying to fill out a form. Are u on H1 or Green Card ....uh... Neither :)

triplet

05-05-2014, 02:48 PM

I hear you Vizcard, same here, I guess EAD/AP is a good thing to have though even if it takes a while to explain :). In my field nobody knows a thing about the green card process or H1/EAD for that matter. Good luck man, I hope you get through this year, you've helped so many people on this forum.

sreddy

05-07-2014, 01:57 PM

June VB is out. As expected no changes to EB2I. One surprise EB3 China went back to 2006.
http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-june-2014.html

rajamp

05-07-2014, 02:12 PM

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/l...

EB2-India 15-Nov-2004
EB3-India 15-Oct-2003

No movement for EB2-India
EB3 - ROW retrogressed to April 01 2011 from Oct 2012
EB3- China has retrogressed to 01 Oct 2006

Spectator

05-07-2014, 03:23 PM

I think Section D is quite interesting and illuminating.

D. RETROGRESSION OF JUNE CUT-OFF DATES

WORLDWIDE F2A:

The cut-off date for the Family F2A category was advanced at a very rapid pace during fiscal year 2013 in an effort to generate demand to use all numbers available under the annual limit. Those movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in the level of applicant demand being received during the past seven months. This has required the retrogression of the Family F2A cut-off date for June in an effort to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. Further retrogression cannot be ruled out should demand by applicants with very early priority dates continue to increase.

MEXICO F2A:

Despite a previous retrogression, the level of demand has remained excessive, resulting in a further retrogression of this cut-off date to hold number use within the annual limit.

Employment Third, and Third Other Workers:

The unexpected and dramatic increase in demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service Offices during the past several months has resulted in number use approaching the annual limit for this category. As a result, it has been necessary to retrogress the Worldwide, China, and Mexico cut-off dates for the month of June.

Notices were included in several Visa Bulletins during the past year alerting readers to the possibility of such retrogressions. While corrective action in some categories has become necessary earlier than was anticipated based on the information available earlier, it is hoped that readers are not caught off guard by these retrogressions.

Notice the phrase for EB3 "has resulted in number use approaching the annual limit for this category". That confirms what I suspected - that EB3-ROW already have fairly high approvals to date and far ahead of the usual number for this point in the year.

Such severe retrogression of EB3-China is slightly surprising, but it probably speaks volumes for the number of EB2-China applicants who have reverse ported. A Cut Off Date of 01OCT06 (6 year retrogression) is the equivalent of saying it is Unavailable and that China have reached the 7% limit within EB3. EB3-China Other Workers has retrogressed 9 years 9 months to 01JAN03, which is now earlier than that for EB3-India.

On the Family Based side, as promised, F2A WW have retrogressed (1 year 4 months) and F2A Mexico have retrogressed a further 1 year 1 month.

CO mentioned that FB2B demand was a little low, so he has moved that forward 3 months for F2B WW and even 2 1/2 months for F2B Mexico (although F2B-M still remains retrogressed compared to the start of the FY). FB2B WW has moved forward 1 year 6 weeks during FY2014 to date.

It might be taken as evidence that CO is determined not to waste FB visas this year.

qesehmk

05-07-2014, 03:28 PM

venkat

05-07-2014, 03:34 PM

Q and Spec,

Since lot of China applicants have reverse ported from Eb2 to Eb3 it means that number of Eb2 China people in the pipeline must have reduced somewhat. Correct?

Is this a good sign meaning instead of dates moving to March 1, 2009 for Eb2 India (as per popular prediction) can it move by another 3-4 months (say for example June 1, 2009?

Spec
I strongly suspect that EB3C retrogression is a technical retrogression just like EB2I where the porting does exceed the country quota but not by so much but enough to the point where retrogression is justified. Come Q4 that retrogression should go away - except for EB3C this year since EB3ROW is unlikely to yield anything this year. But next year that retrogression will certainly vanish.

Spectator

05-07-2014, 03:47 PM

Spec
I strongly suspect that EB3C retrogression is a technical retrogression just like EB2I where the porting does exceed the country quota but not by so much but enough to the point where retrogression is justified. Come Q4 that retrogression should go away - except for EB3C this year since EB3ROW is unlikely to yield anything this year. But next year that retrogression will certainly vanish.Q,

I'm not sure what you mean by technical retrogression. EB3-C do not appear to have any more visas available under this year's allocation (or extremely few). Note that CO has said number use is approaching the annual limit, not demand. EB3-P will still consume significant numbers if their COD continues to advance.

The same with EB3-WW - the demand was going to be too great for the remaining visas, if left at last months COD.

Next FY, a new allocation will be available and the COD will jump accordingly. In both cases, it is saying that visa allocation has been so high that gradual progression (or even stagnation) of the COD is not possible.

It is entirely different to EB2-I IMO (which is technical retrogression), because that that is caused by the wait for a determination of the number of spare visas that will be available from other Categories and Countries within EB2 - that is not a consideration for EB3, since they receive no spillover. EB3 will have a fixed number of about 43k this FY and the comment suggests the majority of those have already been used.

qesehmk

05-07-2014, 03:56 PM

By technical I mean not realistic given that is not where the wall of demand for that category exists.

So yes Indeed technically 2006 is where EB3C reached its cap this year. But the demand wall of EB3C perhaps is not there. Same with EB2I. Their demand wall is around aug 2008 right now. In other words any spillover start eating at that wall but then come Oct/Nov 2014 the technical retrogression will kick in and EB2I will go back to stone ages!

p.s. For EB3C EB3ROW will be their savior (I meant next year - not this year).

Q,

I'm not sure what you mean by technical retrogression. EB3-C do not appear to have any more visas available under this year's allocation (or extremely few).

The same with EB3-WW - the demand was going to be too great for the remaining visas, if left at last months COD.

Next FY, a new allocation will be available and the COD will jump accordingly. In both cases, it is saying that visa allocation has been so high that gradual progression (or even stagnation) of the COD is not possible.

It is entirely different to EB2-I IMO (which is technical retrogression), because that that is caused by the wait for a determination of the number of spare visas that will be available from other Categories and Countries within EB2 - that is not a consideration for EB3, since they receive no spillover. EB3 will have a fixed number of about 43k this FY and the comment suggests the majority of those have already been used.

Spectator

05-07-2014, 04:11 PM

By technical I mean not realistic given that is not where the wall of demand for that category exists.

So yes Indeed technically 2006 is where EB3C reached its cap this year. But the demand wall of EB3C perhaps is not there. Same with EB2I. Their demand wall is around aug 2008 right now. In other words any spillover start eating at that wall but then come Oct/Nov 2014 the technical retrogression will kick in and EB2I will go back to stone ages!

p.s. For EB3C EB3ROW will be their savior.Q,

Thanks for the explanation. Perhaps we just look at (or express) it differently.

The demand wall of EB3C for FY2014 has been reached. I agree the exact COD would be later than 2006 (and earlier than 2012), but it is unknowable at present. The opening date for FY2015 will say something about where it was. As I said previously, I think a COD of 2006 is just a kind way of saying Unavailable.

If by "For EB3C EB3ROW will be their savior." you mean that you believe EB3-C will receive extra visa numbers from EB3-ROW/M at the end of the FY, I disagree. If that were going to be the case, EB3-ROW/M would not have been retrogressed. That says that EB3-ROW/M will reach their full allocation for FY2014 within the new COD. There certainly appear to be enough pending cases to do so.

In any case, even if there were spare visas, they would have to go to EB3-I, who would have the earliest PD of Countries that had reached the 7% limit. That will also be true for several years to come, until both EB3-I and EB3-P reach the same "true" COD as EB3-C.

Spectator

05-07-2014, 04:21 PM

Q and Spec,

Since lot of China applicants have reverse ported from Eb2 to Eb3 it means that number of Eb2 China people in the pipeline must have reduced somewhat. Correct?

Is this a good sign meaning instead of dates moving to March 1, 2009 for Eb2 India (as per popular prediction) can it move by another 3-4 months (say for example June 1, 2009?venkat,

It's likely that the majority of reverse porting occurred for applicants who were not current (or likely to be current this FY) under EB2-C.

If there were those that would have been current under EB2-C this year, it just allows the EB2-C Cut Off Date to progress further for the 3k allocation they have and allows somewhat faster progression of EB2-C dates in future years.

It does not alter the number of spare visas available to EB2-I in any way, since EB2-C will not use any of the spillover available. EB2-C will finish FY2014 at a later Cut Off Date than EB2-I can reach, even with all the spillover visa numbers.

vizcard

05-07-2014, 04:47 PM

It might be taken as evidence that CO is determined not to waste FB visas this year.

I haven't been paying much attention to the FB side of things. Do we have any FB to EB spillover in FY14 (like last year)? I know early in the FY, there were some estimates but I don't know what happened since.

Spectator

05-07-2014, 04:54 PM

I haven't been paying much attention to the FB side of things. Do we have any FB to EB spillover in FY14 (like last year)? I know early in the FY, there were some estimates but I don't know what happened since.vizcard,

10k has been mentioned already http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

It should end up at slightly over 10.2k. FB used 10,247 less than their allocation last year. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2405-FY2013-DOS-Visa-Report

qesehmk

05-07-2014, 05:48 PM

Q,
I agree the exact COD would be later than 2006 (and earlier than 2012), but it is unknowable at present.
..

If by "For EB3C EB3ROW will be their savior." you mean that you believe EB3-C will receive extra visa numbers from EB3-ROW/M at the end of the FY, I disagree.
Spec - I agree that right now it is not knowable. So what I am saying is just a guess!

As per EB3ROW being savior -- I was only talking about next year - not this. And thanks for pointing out that EB3I is where most of those numbers may go. So even next EB3C may stay retrogressed but certainly not at 2006.

Spectator

05-07-2014, 06:12 PM

Spec - I agree that right now it is not knowable. So what I am saying is just a guess!

As per EB3ROW being savior -- I was only talking about next year - not this. And thanks for pointing out that EB3I is where most of those numbers may go. So even next EB3C may stay retrogressed but certainly not at 2006.I think as sometimes (often), we have been talking at cross purposes. :)

I agree (and I don't think I have said otherwise) that EB3-C will jump back to a sensible COD as soon as FY2015 begins.

sairam09

05-07-2014, 07:12 PM

I think as sometimes (often), we have been talking at cross purposes. :)

I agree (and I don't think I have said otherwise) that EB3-C will jump back to a sensible COD as soon as FY2015 begins.

Spec,

Whats the realistic hope for the EB2I Dates to be moved this FY Year.

qesehmk

05-07-2014, 07:20 PM

I don't know what you mean "Cross Purposes".

But I didn't find any major disagreeable things here. So we are good - I guess ;)

I think as sometimes (often), we have been talking at cross purposes. :)

I agree (and I don't think I have said otherwise) that EB3-C will jump back to a sensible COD as soon as FY2015 begins.

Spectator

05-07-2014, 08:48 PM

I don't know what you mean "Cross Purposes".

But I didn't find any major disagreeable things here. So we are good - I guess ;)Q<

I don't think it is worth prolonging the conversation over what amounts to nothing.

No need to guess - we are good (at least I hope so!)

Spectator

05-07-2014, 09:06 PM

Spec,

Whats the realistic hope for the EB2I Dates to be moved this FY Year.I think I am in agreement with most other people.

The dates will definitely (in my mind) move beyond the Jan 2008 date mentioned by CO to at least somewhere in late-ish 2008.

How much they move beyond that is down to the performance of EB1 and EB2-ROW for the remainder of the FY. Currently, EB1 approval rates appear high and EB2-ROW approval rates appear quite low. Both can change in the second half of the year.

I can't honestly say I see dates moving beyond March 2009 even in the most optimistic scenario. Currently, I don't even see that as very likely, as all the news lately has been negative to the number of visas that might be available.

Spectator

05-08-2014, 09:33 AM

sairam09

05-08-2014, 10:03 AM

Thanks Spec! With the new Data we should get some insight as well.

Jagan01

05-08-2014, 03:05 PM

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Some observations from a very quick look.

Despite apparent fairly heavy approvals for EB1 during Jan-Mar 2014, the EB1 Inventory actually rose very slightly to 18.1k. Most of the rise (95%) was due increased EB1-I cases (31% of the total).

Reductions in the EB3-I Inventory for dates beyond the EB3-I Cut Off Date suggest there has been at least 2.6k porting cases approved under EB2-I between Oct-Mar.

Most of the EB5 cases that were pending previously seem to have been approved. The number dropped from 654 in the Jan Inventory to 59 in the April Inventory. EB5 AOS cases only account for about 15% of EB5 cases and only 10% of EB5-C cases, who account for 80% of all EB5 approvals.

Thanks for the input Spec.

Just wanted to add that the EB2ROW applications have almost doubled. I went back and checked that what was the inventory for the last 3 months preceding the inventory published date:
---------------------------Last month----Second last---------Third last
July 2013 inventory---------233-----------368-----------------133
Oct 2013 inventory---------291-----------352-----------------296
Jan 2014 inventory---------512-----------502-----------------258
Apr 2014 inventory---------473-----------553-----------------680
------------------------------------------------------------------------

For EB2ROW, is the application date of I-140 that decides the month/year and not the PD ? OI somehow never understood this. For example, EB2I always has number put up based on PD (PERM application filed date). Why is that not the case for EB2WW ?

Spectator

05-08-2014, 03:58 PM

For EB2ROW, is the application date of I-140 that decides the month/year and not the PD ? OI somehow never understood this. For example, EB2I always has number put up based on PD (PERM application filed date). Why is that not the case for EB2WW ?Jagan,

EB2-ROW is no different from EB2-I for a standard PERM based case. The PD is the PERM filing date.

If the case is an NIW or Schedule A, the PD would be the I-140 filing date, since neither require a PERM.

BTW, I think I know why you are asking. As I have said before I do not have much confidence in the figures in the Inventory at the micro scale, particularly for Countries/Categories that are Current. USCIS data entry appears to be shockingly bad.

It's worth reiterating that, according to USCIS, the Inventory only contains I-485 numbers where the underlying I-140 has been approved. Neither NIW nor EB1C have premium processing of the I-140 available.

Jagan01

05-08-2014, 04:29 PM

Jagan,

EB2-ROW is no different from EB2-I for a standard PERM based case. The PD is the PERM filing date.

If the case is an NIW or Schedule A, the PD would be the I-140 filing date, since neither require a PERM.

BTW, I think I know why you are asking. As I have said before I do not have much confidence in the figures in the Inventory at the micro scale, particularly for Countries/Categories that are Current. USCIS data entry appears to be shockingly bad.

It's worth reiterating that, according to USCIS, the Inventory only contains I-485 numbers where the underlying I-140 has been approved. Neither NIW nor EB1C have premium processing of the I-140 available.

Spec,

Thanks for the reply again.

I need to do more research about Schedule A, as I am not aware of it.
Two more months and we shall know where we land up this year. Good luck.

Spectator

05-08-2014, 04:46 PM

Spec,

Thanks for the reply again.

I need to do more research about Schedule A, as I am not aware of it.
Two more months and we shall know where we land up this year. Good luck.Jagan,

Schedule A won't be much of a factor for EB2-ROW.

It is mainly nurses and physical therapists. The vast majority would apply under EB3 and the vast bulk of applications are from the Philippines.

Am I correct in thinking you are wondering how there can be any cases reported with a PD in 2014 for EB2-ROW, when PERM processing dates are still in 2013 and a regular processed NIW takes a long time to adjudicate?

If so, you are not alone. It begs the question of what the Inventory does represent. I sure appears it isn't strictly by PD as it is advertized to be. That makes use of it rather limited IMO.

helooo

05-08-2014, 04:52 PM

Hi Q,Spec
Does this inventory give us idea regarding SO to EB2I?Thank You!

Jagan01

05-08-2014, 05:23 PM

Am I correct in thinking you are wondering how there can be any cases reported with a PD in 2014 for EB2-ROW, when PERM processing dates are still in 2013 and a regular processed NIW takes a long time to adjudicate?

If so, you are not alone. It begs the question of what the Inventory does represent. I sure appears it isn't strictly by PD as it is advertized to be. That makes use of it rather limited IMO.

Spec,

You are correct. That is what I have been wondering. I feel it is best to go with your advice to treat the rest of the data in inventory as unimportant and inaccurate. The only good use of the inventory is to see the pending EB2I demand. EB2ROW and EB1 numbers may be misleading.

Spectator

05-08-2014, 05:25 PM

Hi Q,Spec
Does this inventory give us idea regarding SO to EB2I?Thank You!Not in my opinion.

The continuing high number of EB1 might suggest that EB1 approvals are not going to slow down if USCIS process them to approval.

Spectator

05-08-2014, 05:43 PM

Spec,

You are correct. That is what I have been wondering. I feel it is best to go with your advice to treat the rest of the data in inventory as unimportant and inaccurate. The only good use of the inventory is to see the pending EB2I demand. EB2ROW and EB1 numbers may be misleading.I didn't say it was unimportant. I might say I wouldn't be concerned at looking at the individual monthly totals and trying to explain them.

In general, it's difficult to glean information, because any changes are only net. Without knowing either the number of approvals, or the number of additions within a period, I find it difficult to tease out truly useful information.

That's without even considering that there are cases that will never (theoretically) ever appear in the Inventory. i.e. the I-140 is approved after publication of the last Inventory and the I-485 is approved before the publication of the next Inventory.

My memory is a little hazy (since it was some months ago) and I am not going to repeat the exercise, but where there was sufficient information in the Trackitt case, I remember around a third of EB1C Trackitt approvals this year would never have appeared in the Inventory for that reason. I don't consider that figure very reliable, because only a subset of total cases had sufficient information to analyze. I did it more out of my own interest to just get an idea and I mention it only to illustrate the difficulties.

That's not to say someone else looking at the data might not have that aha moment - I've realized my shortcomings in trying to do so. And I have tried multiple times.

I would say the same about trying to gauge future EB3 demand from the PERM data. Another problem I have found intractable to date.

Enough wallowing in self pity. Sniff. :)

I think both those problems need new blood, with new enthusiasm to tackle them.

infoseek

05-09-2014, 08:38 AM

Dear Friends, Been a while since I logged in... but was mostly here reading up on the excellent analysis. Had to log in today to share ... finally got greened. Details:

PD - 03/23/2009
I-140 Approval - 04/18/2011
Fingerprinting - 03/26/2012
EAD/AP Approval - 03/10/2012
EAD/AP Card - 03/14/2012
I-485 Approval - 05/05/2014
Green Card - 05/08/2014

I received under Chinese quota (my wife is Chinese). FYI I got a note in Apr from a legal representative from the firm that filed my case that they will send a note to USCIS about my eligibility for cross chargeability for a fee. But they also disclosed that cross chargeability is applied automatically and generally there would be no need for any kind of follow up. I choose not to follow up (wait for a few days first)... luckily case was approved pretty fast.

qesehmk

05-09-2014, 09:01 AM

Many congratulations for the GC infoseek! Enjoy the freedom. What an innovative lawyer.
Dear Friends, Been a while since I logged in... but was mostly here reading up on the excellent analysis. Had to log in today to share ... finally got greened. Details:

PD - 03/23/2009
I-140 Approval - 04/18/2011
Fingerprinting - 03/26/2012
EAD/AP Approval - 03/10/2012
EAD/AP Card - 03/14/2012
I-485 Approval - 05/05/2014
Green Card - 05/08/2014

I received under Chinese quota (my wife is Chinese). FYI I got a note in Apr from a legal representative from the firm that filed my case that they will send a note to USCIS about my eligibility for cross chargeability for a fee. But they also disclosed that cross chargeability is applied automatically and generally there would be no need for any kind of follow up. I choose not to follow up (wait for a few days first)... luckily case was approved pretty fast.

Spectator

05-09-2014, 09:08 AM

infoseek,

Congratulations.

YTeleven

05-09-2014, 01:06 PM

Spectator

05-09-2014, 01:36 PM

Interesting document revealing the past EB stats and the calculations used by DHS to arrive at the pending/approved I-140s with H1Bs and still waiting to file I-485s.
http://www.ofr.gov/OFRUpload/OFRData/2014-10734_PI.pdfI thought the other document dealing with Enhancing Opportunities for H-1B1, CW-1, and E-3 Nonimmigrants and EB-1 Immigrants (http://www.ofr.gov/OFRUpload/OFRData/2014-10733_PI.pdf) was equally, or more interesting, since it contained some very rare statistics for EB1 on page 52.

It gives data for Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker (I-140) with Outstanding Professor or Researcher Preference Receipts and Completions, FY 2003-2013, shows an over 93.3% approval % over the last 5 years and that there are only an average of about 3.3k I-140 applications per year under EB1B over the last 5 years. Even with the average number of dependents for EB1, the approval figures suggest there are only about 8k I-485 approvals per year.

It's not entirely new information, since it can be derived form the DHS figures, but interesting nonetheless.

gs1968

05-10-2014, 05:37 AM

Spectator

05-11-2014, 10:25 AM

I read an article in the Huffingtonpost where it states that the total number of Green cards issued last year (2013) has decreased dramatically

"net immigration down from nearly 1.2 million as of 2001 to 843,145 last year"
This is the link to the article

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/26/fastest-shrinking-cities_n_5218833.html

Since the DHS Statistical Year book for FY-2013 has not been published,I am assuming that somebody at Huffpost has had a sneak peek at the statistics. However according to one of Spec's links to the DoS THE FB to EB Spillover has already been calculated and is about 10000 indicating that most of the FB visas were used.The refugee quota was met last year and so was the EB. I wonder where the drop is coming from and I can only think of the Immediate relatives categorygs1968,

That seems too low a figure.

I wonder if the clue is that they are talking about NET immigration, so Americans emigrating would be deducted from Immigrants arriving.

As far as last year (FY2013) is concerned, some figures can be gleaned from the DOS reports already published.

FB ------- 215,753
EB ------- 161,269
Diversity -- 51,080

Consular Processed Immediate Relatives were 205,435 (compared to 235,616 in FY2012). Using the same split between CP and AOS for IR as in FY2012 implies :

IR ------- 411,895 (compared to 478,780 in FY2012)

I couldn't find any information about Refugees and Asylees.

If we assume the number as the same as FY2012 (151k) and do the same for other categories not included, then overall Immigration is about 1 million, which is comparable to the number in FY2012.

gs1968

05-11-2014, 10:46 AM

To Spec
Thanks for the clarification.For some reason the net number was too low even by the standards of the snail-paced USCIS!

Asylum numbers are hard to find but the annual refugee totals are in the link below

http://www.wrapsnet.org/Home/tabid/52/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/30/The-Numbers-Are-In.aspx

The ceiling for FY-2013 was the same as this year i.e 70000. That was almost completely achieved according to the link above which is a huge improvement from FY-2012 (56000 resettled against a ceiling of 70000).

WRAPSNET also gives a running total bi-monthly on refugee resettlement including an breakdown on primary beneficiaries and derivatives.The conservatives have always argued the difference between "ceiling" and "target"!!

gs1968

05-11-2014, 02:52 PM

To Spec

I need to clarify the above post on the refugee numbers. The numbers on the webpage reflect refugee arrivals in the uSA but by law they can apply for I-485 only after 12 months.Hence the year book numbers reflect AOS for refugees who arrived in the previous FY and in FY-2012 this was only 58200. However the net refugee numbers are always in excess of the ceiling due to family re-unification (following-to-join) and not considering Cuban refugees towards the ceiling (usually about 25000 per year).It still seems enough to reach the one million mark as you have said.We will know soon when the next YearBook is released in June

Spectator

05-11-2014, 03:08 PM

To Spec

I need to clarify the above post on the refugee numbers. The numbers on the webpage reflect refugee arrivals in the USA but by law they can apply for I-485 only after 12 months.Hence the year book numbers reflect AOS for refugees who arrived in the previous FY and in FY-2012 this was only 58200. However the net refugee numbers are always in excess of the ceiling due to family re-unification (following-to-join) and not considering Cuban refugees towards the ceiling (usually about 25000 per year).It still seems enough to reach the one million mark as you have said.We will know soon when the next Year Book is released in Junegs1968,

Thanks for the additional explanations about refugee numbers and how they work. Consider yourself the expert on the matter.

I admit I was slightly confused, because despite the 70k ceiling mentioned in your first post, the number of refugees reported in the DHS figures for FY2012 was 105,528. Your additional information explains the difference.

Thanks.

gs1968

05-11-2014, 07:26 PM

To Spec
I promise that this will be the last on this subject as I feel that the majority of us in this forum are interested in EB visa issues.The Cubans qualify under the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966 where if they can show residence in the USA for 12 months they are eligible for LPR status

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Refugee_Adjustment_Act

These numbers are not counted towards the annual ceiling and can obviously vary from year to year. Also the US guarantees 20000 visitor visas to Cuba to avoid Cubans making risky attempts to cross the seas and a lot of them end up adjusting their status.

infoseek

05-12-2014, 08:09 AM

infoseek,

Congratulations.

Q/Spec,
Thank you. Also thanks for this excellent forum. All the analysis by all Gurus here was very helpful with many decisions during the wait time.

sairam09

05-12-2014, 11:07 AM

Spec,

Whats your gut feel about the movement for this year for EB2-I. Wait is killing all of us...

Spectator

05-12-2014, 11:53 AM

Spec,

Whats your gut feel about the movement for this year for EB2-I. Wait is killing all of us...I've already put my thoughts on the first page, which I update fairly frequently, but the uncertainty is such that the range alters almost daily.

Pessimistic to Optimistic, I could see a range of 01OCT08 to 01MAR09 with a likely point at about 01JAN09. It is looking increasingly tough for PD2009 people this year.

It depends how EB2-WW and EB1 perform during the remainder of the year. I can see it going either way. Of course, the amount of pent up porting that can be approved when the dates move forward is also another consideration.

qesehmk

05-13-2014, 08:17 AM

Guys a couple of observations from a few datapoints available:
Two datapoints used in this:
1. Latest 485 Inventory (Apr 1 2014) (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_04-01-2014.pdf) -
- At a macro level - backlogs are increasing slightly - especially so in EB1. But that increase very well could be random nature of processing. So I wouldn't take anything from that. The best takeaway one can take is at least it does indicate a reasonably healthy but not necessarily high demand across all categories.
- EB2I+EB3I show reduction of approx 4K which is consistent with their 6 months quota. EB3I reduction is higher than EB2I reduction which makes sense indicating portings. However I think the porting trend is still stable at 4-5K max per year.
- EB4/5 nothing can be deduced from this data. Too few numbers to say anything. But this is how it always has been with EB4/5.
- EB3C shows increase which means EB3C won't be current this year at least.
- EB3ROW shows stable backlog which means EB3ROW retrogression if any should be short lived and dates should continue their march forward.

2. 485 Performance data for Q1 of 2014 (http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-form-i-485-application-adjustment-status)
This data is actually more interesting and shows less than quota approvals. It shows 31K approvals in Q1 against a total quota of 40K (27% of 150K). If you adjust for CP, the total approvals could very well be 37K. That means 3K from Q1 alone would be seen in EB2 eventually. So it would be safe to assume 10-12K of spillover for EB2I.

Will update the header soon....

qesehmk

05-13-2014, 03:13 PM

Header updated.

Kanmani

05-14-2014, 10:15 AM

sairam09

05-14-2014, 10:25 AM

Thanks Kamani!

qesehmk

05-14-2014, 10:30 AM

All Form Types Performance Data (Fiscal Year 2014, 2nd Qtr) ........http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/allformtypes_performancedata_fy2014_qtr2.pdf

Wow! This is holy grail of data.

Guys... DOS and USCIS get a lot of flak. But I think thanks and congratulations are due for transparency from both organizations.

sairam09

05-14-2014, 10:32 AM

For Employment 2 Quarters are empty what does that mean?

qesehmk

05-14-2014, 10:45 AM

For Employment 2 Quarters are empty what does that mean?
USCIS quarters are
Q1 - Oct - Dec
Q2 - Jan - Mar
Q3 - Apr - Jun
Q4 - July - Sep

Since we are in Q3 - Q3/4 data is not yet in.

sairam09

05-14-2014, 10:53 AM

Thanks Q :)

rs3533

05-14-2014, 11:27 AM

If you check this other piece of stats...

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_fy2014qtr2.pdf

The total no of 485 approved by Nebraska and Texas are 28,572 at the end of report for Q2. So If the total approvals as per your comment are 30,651 then I wonder 2079 are coming from Consular Processing etc

qesehmk

05-14-2014, 01:08 PM

sport - dont forget cp. They are not part of this data.
If it's "only" 31K per quarter, that's too good to be true too. It points to a potentially very large spillover unless we are excluding Eb4/EB5. I have to profess a complete ignorance on that aspect.

Even if we include EB4/EB5, the number doesn't look bad and points to a 10-15K spillover at least.

krishn

05-14-2014, 02:12 PM

This is the page that has all the perf data reports

i-485
http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-form-i-485-application-adjustment-status

all forms
http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-all-uscis-application-and-petition-form-types

Spectator

05-14-2014, 03:04 PM

If CP is not part of the date, the picture doesn't look good.

30*4 = 120K for the whole year. Add at least 15K CP cases for EB4/EB5 and 10K CP cases for EB2/3. The spillover available is very less at this point and that's what the AILA update seemed to indicate.

Unless the approvals slow down. I hope they slow down significantly in the last quarter especially for EB2-ROW.sports,

Doesn't that ignore the fact that the figures to date also include EB2-I approvals.

Simplistically, as an example, if you thought the total figures to date included 6k EB2-I approvals, then simply double the total, it might account for 12k EB2-I cases. Adding your 5k left would increase the figure to 17k.

I don't think it is that simple, but it doesn't imply only a further 5k are available either.

I'm not sure EB2-ROW approvals will necessarily slow down in the second half, but EB3-ROW/M/C certainly will.

redwood

05-14-2014, 05:11 PM

Spectator

05-14-2014, 05:33 PM

Was checking 2013 report

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllForms-Q42013.pdf

Something seriously wrong with Q4 I-485 approvals ? Only 16K .redwood,

If you check previous reports, you will find that some of the Q2 figures are completely different in the Q4 report.

If you restore the original figure, then Q4 approvals becomes higher and more sensible.

e.g. The Q4 report shows Q2 I-485 approvals as 55,145. It was 32,825 in previous reports. Restoring that to Q2 in the Q4 report would make Q4 rise to 38,584 instead of 16,264.

EB2-I alone had around 15k AOS approvals in Q4, not to mention about another 5k for EB3-I.

There are other examples and some figures cannot be reconciled to other reports from USCIS for the same period.

It's unfortunate, but the report can't be trusted. There are some oddities in the latest report. I'll wait to see what the Dashboard figures are to reconcile those.

As a PS, I think the new format is a huge backward step. It may be simpler to read, but it does not provide as much information. For example, I-360 sub categories used to be shown, which enabled me to just look at the numbers that contribute to EB4 approvals. That is no longer possible.

qesehmk

05-14-2014, 05:42 PM

I don't see why there should be any slow down.

However the good thing is - these numbers indeed contains all categories and countries including backlogged. So any delta you calculate will be pure spillover to EB2IC (assuming there is none in EB3).

If CP is not part of the date, the picture doesn't look good.

30*4 = 120K for the whole year. Add at least 15K CP cases for EB4/EB5 and 10K CP cases for EB2/3. The spillover available is very less at this point and that's what the AILA update seemed to indicate.

Unless the approvals slow down. I hope they slow down significantly in the last quarter especially for EB2-ROW.

willywonka

05-15-2014, 01:16 AM

Kanmani

05-15-2014, 05:33 AM

In both Q1 and Q2 the approvals plus denials are higher than the number of new EB I-485 applications. But the number of pending applications has gone up from Q1 to Q2.
Is it because of MTRs filed by the denied applicants that put them back in the pending queue ? Or is it applications from before Q1 and in Q1 that somehow didn't show up under Q1 pending but show in Q2 pending ?
Can someone please help me understand ?

Willywonka,

There is a processing time lag of 3 months between Receipt and approval of all applications subject to current priority date. Applications received in the 4th quarter of FY2013 usually gets approved in the 1st quarter of FY2014 onwards.

qesehmk

05-15-2014, 07:37 AM

In this case - the report has a foot note that says - the data only shows the cases reported in the case tracking system. So that could also explain the delta.

In both Q1 and Q2 the approvals plus denials are higher than the number of new EB I-485 applications. But the number of pending applications has gone up from Q1 to Q2.
Is it because of MTRs filed by the denied applicants that put them back in the pending queue ? Or is it applications from before Q1 and in Q1 that somehow didn't show up under Q1 pending but show in Q2 pending ?
Can someone please help me understand ?

helooo

05-15-2014, 08:19 AM

Hi Q,Spec,Gurus,
Is there any change in EB2I date movement due to this new data?Or still it can move between Aug2008-Jan 2009?
Thank You!

Spectator

05-15-2014, 10:48 AM

The I-526 figures (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Employment-based/I526_performancedata_fy2014qtr2.pdf) were also released as a separate report.

FY ---------- Receipt -- Approved -- Denied -- Approval % -- Pending -- EB5 Use
2008 ---------- 1,258 ------- 642 ----- 120 --------- 84% ------ 853 ---- 1,443
2009 ---------- 1,031 ----- 1,265 ----- 208 --------- 86% ------ 514 ---- 4,218
2010 ---------- 1,953 ----- 1,369 ----- 165 --------- 89% ---- 1,125 ---- 1,885
2011 ---------- 3,805 ----- 1,571 ----- 372 --------- 81% ---- 3,347 ---- 3,463
2012 ---------- 6,041 ----- 3,677 ----- 957 --------- 79% ---- 5,018 ---- 7,641
2013 ---------- 6,346 ----- 3,699 ----- 943 --------- 80% ---- 7,131 ---- 8,564

2014 Q1/Q2 ---- 4,683 ----- 2,882 --- 1,068 --------- 73% ---- 8,302

2014 Prorated - 9,366 ----- 5,764 --- 2,136

Receipts and Approvals are sharply up compared to the same time last FY.

Processing times for I-526 were 13.2 months at the end of March 2014.

At the latest approval rate, the 8,302 pending cases represent 6,057 I-526 approvals over time. At the historical 2.9 EB5 visas per I-526 approval, that translates to a backlog of ~17.6k EB5 approvals.

As of November 1, 2013, NVC had the following number of EB5 cases in progress:

PD Year ---- No.
2011 ------ 966
2012 ---- 2,969
2013 ------ 813

Total --- 4,748

Spectator

05-15-2014, 11:08 AM

Thanks spec!

So this points to a large spillover from EB5. I take that as good news.Sports,

Why do you think that and define "large".

Remember this is I-526 (equivalent to I-140 for EB5) and each I-526 approval will translate to 2.9 EB5 visa approvals eventually.

helpful_leo

05-15-2014, 02:07 PM

To us data-ignorant folks, can somebody explain what the new data means for possible PD movement in the coming months for EB2I?

I have a PD of 12/16/2008 - what are the chances I will get greened?

Thx!

YTeleven

05-15-2014, 02:52 PM

Hi Q,Spec,Gurus,
Is there any change in EB2I date movement due to this new data?Or still it can move between Aug2008-Jan 2009?
Thank You!

Atleast from my side no change in my predictions. I still believe the EB2-I numbers will move to around Mar2009.
I was closely following the recently released data pointers but none of them is forcing me to change my earlier predictions.
Again the key for the EB2-I movement is due to EB2-ROW spillover.
I do see the recent increase in PERM approvals but that will affect very badly the next year spillover for EB2-I.

Spectator

05-19-2014, 10:03 AM

The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) has just been updated with the March 2014 Figures.

sairam09

05-19-2014, 10:19 AM

Any thing surprising for you?

Spectator

05-19-2014, 10:45 AM

These numbers are flat out wrong. Useless data.sports,

Why do you say that?

The Receipt and Completion figures (where they are in both reports) agree to the other Quarterly reports published recently.

I think your statement deserves more explanation.

Feb262009

05-19-2014, 11:53 AM

Gurus,
When do you think we will know if the medical check waiver will be extended or not. In case it is not extended, I wonder regarding the effect of renewal of medical check in EB2 India dates movement . Don't you think if medical test needs to be re-validated, it will be better to move the dates in July bulletin to allow time to receive and process the RFE responses? Otherwise They will have only 2 month to send RFE and process. Then I believe they will move the dates more than necessary to ensure no Visa is wasted.

qesehmk

05-19-2014, 12:14 PM

Those numbers are jumbled up with family and all sorts of numbers.

That is why when USCIS this year posted Quarterly performance data I called it - "Holy Grail of data" !!

The quarterly data separates family from employment and shows isolated Quaterly performance i.e. how many came and how many approved and denied by FB vs EB vs Others in a quarter.

The dashboard data does NOT separate FB from EB. That's why it looks garbage to you.

I apologize if I am not reading the numbers right.

I tried to find 485 completions for NSC and TSC each. I found that if I added all completion numbers for NSC alone, that was coming to almost 62K. Unless I am missing something, how can NSC alone grant 62K green cards when the total quota is 150K?

I also found that NSC and TSC each were completing 10K cases each in February and March, which is too high a figure.

Perhaps I am not adding the numbers correctly. Spec, can you correct me? I was trying to infer how many green cards were already given out in the EB category.

Aside from the raw numbers, as far as the trend is concerned, it did not look good in March. There is a noticeable jump in 485 completions at both NSC and TSC. In fact, the number of completions almost doubled for TSC after dipping to extremely low levels in November/December.

Jagan01

05-19-2014, 12:20 PM

The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) has just been updated with the March 2014 Figures.

The jump in March for I-140 looks concerning.

Spectator

05-19-2014, 12:42 PM

I apologize if I am not reading the numbers right.

I tried to find 485 completions for NSC and TSC each. I found that if I added all completion numbers for NSC alone, that was coming to almost 62K. Unless I am missing something, how can NSC alone grant 62K green cards when the total quota is 150K?

I also found that NSC and TSC each were completing 10K cases each in February and March, which is too high a figure.

Perhaps I am not adding the numbers correctly. Spec, can you correct me? I was trying to infer how many green cards were already given out in the EB category.

Aside from the raw numbers, as far as the trend is concerned, it did not look good in March. There is a noticeable jump in 485 completions at both NSC and TSC. In fact, the number of completions almost doubled for TSC after dipping to extremely low levels in November/December.sports,

No problem. Thanks for your further explanation. I understand the context of your comment now.

What you are trying to do would only be valid if NSC and TSC only dealt with EB cases, but that is far from the truth. They also deal with a large number of Refugee and Asylum cases.

From the I-485 Performance Data for Q2 FY2014 (http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-form-i-485-application-adjustment-status) we know that EB I-485 Receipts only accounted for 38.6% of NSC receipts, 71.1% of TSC receipts and 51.8% of combined NSC/TSC receipts for Q2. The respective figures for Q1 FY2014 were 34.2%, 72.9% and 51% respectively.

For I-485 Completions, EB only accounted for 37.0% at NSC in Q2, 75.1% at TSC and 54.1% for NSC/TSC overall. In Q1, the figures were 45.3%, 81.1% and 59.9% respectively.

The number of EB approvals (completions) by USCIS (therefore only AOS cases) to the end of Q2 FY2014 was given in the All Forms report for Q2 FY2014 (http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-all-uscis-application-and-petition-form-types) at 62,352 (65,788). That was broken down by Q1 = 31,702 (33,526) and Q2 = 30,651 (32,262).

I don't think the approval jump in March was entirely unexpected. March (according to Trackitt) saw a large number of EB1 and EB3 approvals. As you say, it was from a very low base in Dec/Jan and had also increased in Feb.

I hope that throws some light on the figures.

Spectator

05-19-2014, 12:50 PM

The jump in March for I-140 looks concerning.
Jagan,

My take is that the increase in I-140 receipts and completions reflects the increased pace of PERM Certifications during that period (7.4k in March vs 4.9k in Feb).

Some pretty sketchy data suggests that the vast majority of new I-140 applicants are choosing Premium Processing where they are able to. That shouldn't be a surprise. They have waited a long time to file, if PERM based and I-140 processing times for regular cases appear very slow.

vizcard

05-19-2014, 12:55 PM

The jump in March for I-140 looks concerning.

I can see next year being a problem with this I140 data plus the pick up in PERM processing after the initial slowdown.

Spectator

05-19-2014, 01:10 PM

I can see next year being a problem with this I140 data plus the pick up in PERM processing after the initial slowdown.Perverse as it may sound, I think very low EB2-WW approvals this year is possibly the worst scenario for EB2-I in the medium term.

Spectator

05-19-2014, 03:13 PM

Why do you say that spec? Instead of EB2-ROW giving 16K this year and 0 next year, how is it "better" if they gave away 8K this year and 8K next year? I may be missing some weird dynamic though...such as EB2-ROW sucking in some additional spillover from EB1 next year should the 16k/0 situation materialize; numbers that would otherwise be available to EB2I in the 8k/8k scenario.

In a straight forward case, I would prefer the 16K/0 scenario because it ends the agony of 8K people earlier by 1 year.I can't think of a way to explain it either simply or concisely.

Suffice to say that the lower the approvals this year, the higher they are likely to be next year.

Too low and a tipping point is reached where there is no spillover to EB2-I.

The normal allocation to EB2-I is probably not sufficient to satisfy even porting from those who already have an I-485 and the pent up, unsatisfied porting demand increases.

When SO does become available, a large amount of it will be consumed by the pent up porting demand, either immediately or in the following year.

In the worst case, the increased number of EB2-WW cases causes causes little to no spillover for 2 years.

In FY2012 EB2-WW only used 25k due to retrogression caused by over allocation to EB2-I. The next year, EB2-WW used 42.6k. Had there only been 140k EB visas available in FY2013, EB2-WW would have needed 8.2k Fall Down to satisfy the demand. There would only have been 5.8k FD available and 2.4k would still have been needed from the next year's allocation. Since then, both EB1 and EB5 use appears to have increased.

If visas available to EB2-I falls below the underlying porting demand, it can possibly condemn EB2-I to very heavily retrogressed Cut Off Dates for some time. That is my worry and I think that would be a very depressing scenario.

If the numbers available are slightly more than the porting demand each year, it allows the Cut Off Dates to move slightly forward each year from the best case the previous year, which means a large movement at the end of the year. That gives people some hope they might be approved.

I suppose it depends on whether a person is likely to be approved or not this year with large numbers as to how they might feel about it.

That's already too wordy a reply and I have still not done it justice.

It is a worst case, but not impossible scenario. I am not saying it would happen (certainly not the worst case) - note I did use the word "possible" in my original post.

sairam09

05-19-2014, 03:23 PM

Spec,

Will today's dashboard release, Change your predictions?

redwood

05-19-2014, 06:14 PM

Every year is different, so lets take this year spillover and see where the next spillover will come from. We would not have spillover this year, if not for the sequestration. Sequestration was the best EBI immigration reform from the Republican and the tea party folks, it was almost half as good as HR3012. If the Govt shutdown hadn't happened, then the budget deal would not have been reached and sequestration would have continued. We would have had 34-35K PERMs approved this year too... But alas, I blame Ted Cruz for this :).

For next year,

I am hopeful EB3I would move much faster providing relief to EB2I too.
In the USCIS dashboard, I see non-perm I-140 filings (EB1 and EB2NIW) dip by a lot over the last couple of months. I came to the conclusion by subtracting PERM approvals from I-140 filings. Hope the trend continues.

Hope is a dangerous thing ;)

I can't think of a way to explain it either simply or concisely.

Suffice to say that the lower the approvals this year, the higher they are likely to be next year.

Too low and a tipping point is reached where there is no spillover to EB2-I.

The normal allocation to EB2-I is probably not sufficient to satisfy even porting from those who already have an I-485 and the pent up, unsatisfied porting demand increases.

When SO does become available, a large amount of it will be consumed by the pent up porting demand, either immediately or in the following year.

In the worst case, the increased number of EB2-WW cases causes causes little to no spillover for 2 years.

In FY2012 EB2-WW only used 25k due to retrogression caused by over allocation to EB2-I. The next year, EB2-WW used 42.6k. Had there only been 140k EB visas available in FY2013, EB2-WW would have needed 8.2k Fall Down to satisfy the demand. There would only have been 5.8k FD available and 2.4k would still have been needed from the next year's allocation. Since then, both EB1 and EB5 use appears to have increased.

If visas available to EB2-I falls below the underlying porting demand, it can possibly condemn EB2-I to very heavily retrogressed Cut Off Dates for some time. That is my worry and I think that would be a very depressing scenario.

If the numbers available are slightly more than the porting demand each year, it allows the Cut Off Dates to move slightly forward each year from the best case the previous year, which means a large movement at the end of the year. That gives people some hope they might be approved.

I suppose it depends on whether a person is likely to be approved or not this year with large numbers as to how they might feel about it.

That's already too wordy a reply and I have still not done it justice.

It is a worst case, but not impossible scenario. I am not saying it would happen (certainly not the worst case) - note I did use the word "possible" in my original post.

Spectator

05-19-2014, 07:10 PM

Kanmani

05-19-2014, 08:47 PM

redwood,

I kind of agree with you.

I presented an Armageddon scenario that probably won't come to pass. I don't expect many people to agree with it as even a possibility.

I have learned that something always comes along to stop it happening. In that respect, EB2-I has dodged the bullet for many years now, whether it be due to low EB1 approvals, over allocation or extra FB visa numbers.

Hope is not a dangerous thing. I guess that comes from one of my favourite films, The Shawshank Redemption:

but later

I prefer Andy's outlook.

On the other hand, another quote also seems to sum up the GC process for many.

Hey Spec, I enjoyed your quotes.

"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies" was my signature until the demise of HR3012. I was so immature those days, a perfect slap on my face.

But I still believe in Hope :)

geevikram

05-19-2014, 11:33 PM

"I prefer Andy's outlook.

On the other hand, another quote also seems to sum up the GC process for many."

This is my favorite movie of all time and this specific quote is the best one. Thank you Spec and others for all your work. 7/3/08 here, "hoping" to make it this year.

redwood

05-20-2014, 12:25 AM

Great Post Spec !

I do not however want to ignore your earlier point about the Armageddon scenario for EB2I. It is a very real possibility and hence I have started looking at EB3ROW as a source for spillover to EB3I (and EB2I, similar to EBC).

Have you looked at such a scenario and what does your analysis say based on limited data (current EB3ROW inventory data and assuming we have 3-5K EB3ROW PERMs annually) ?

Spectator

05-20-2014, 08:24 AM

sairam09

05-21-2014, 10:23 AM

05/21/2014: Forthcoming Policy Change Announcement of USCIS on the Validity of I-693 on File Older Than One Year

• Under the current policy, in any case that is adjudicated on or before May 31, 2014, the officer must accept as valid a form that was signed more than one year before the date of the adjudication on a pending adjustment of status application.

• This policy in the form a policy manual will expire on May 31, 2014. Unless a new policy extending the validity of I-693 which is older than one year is issued before the end of this month, any I-693 which is on file with the USCIS and which is older than one year will automatically turn "invalid" and under the USCIS policy manual, the adjudicators of I-485 applications must issue RFEs to the I-485 waiters to go through another medical examination and submit renewed I-693.

• Those whose I-485 fits this description and pending before the agency should pay a close attention to the forthcoming release of the USCIS new policy during next week.

• This policy change can affect EB-2 I-485 waiters somewhat negatively, particularly for Indians, considering the fact that the EB-2 visa numbers may potentially move forward upto August 2008 in the 4th Quarter of FY 2014 (July-September 2014), the I-693 RFEs can delay adjudication of the pending I-485 applications.

• It is interesting to watch in what way the USCIS will accommodate this issue in the forthcoming announcement.

http://www.immigration-law.com/

sairam09

05-21-2014, 10:49 AM

Oops i forgot to add that! Thanks Spec.

vizcard

05-21-2014, 03:42 PM

I wonder where he came up with the "August 2008" estimate. If it has anything to do with even slight insider information, that's already a huge improvement over the last reported "January 2008" estimate. Considering that these estimates are super conservative to begin with (case in point: last years Feb 2008 turned out to be June 2008), I feel confident we will see the end of 2008 this year.

In an ironic twist, asking us to resubmit the medicals can only be helpful: The DOS will have to entertain the possibility of several hundreds (and potentially even a few thousand) people failing to respond in a timely manner, so the date will be pushed even more. I am an ardent advocate of the date being pushed as far as possible even at the risk of missing out several people in the window (that may include me as well).

I dont think people who don't get their GC but someone way behind then gets one will appreciate your sentiment.

In any case, this year will be very interesting (isn't ever year? :) ) with the RFE process. The timing of them sending mass RFEs out, getting them back and then processing them in some semblance of order will be wild. I know I will be pissed with an Aug 2008 PD to miss the boat due to administrative crap.

Spectator

05-21-2014, 04:16 PM

I dont think people who don't get their GC but someone way behind then gets one will appreciate your sentiment.

In any case, this year will be very interesting (isn't ever year? :) ) with the RFE process. The timing of them sending mass RFEs out, getting them back and then processing them in some semblance of order will be wild. I know I will be pissed with an Aug 2008 PD to miss the boat due to administrative crap.vizcard,

I still retain some hope that USCIS will publish a Memo of some kind regarding Medical Examinations, otherwise they might as well start sending out RFEs to the 2012 filers up to a certain PD. If there is a Memo, I don't think it will be a simple one year extension, but rather setting a fixed validity of maybe 3-5 years. It's getting so late now, that maybe it is just wishful thinking. If there is no Memo, I think it is a very unfortunate (to avoid using stronger language) decision.

I don't think it does any favours overall to "over push" the date movement. Not only does it introduce inequities in the PDs for EB2-I that are approved, but at a wider scale it has become unfair to EB3. Such is the pace of EB2-I approvals at the end of the year, that total EB numbers run out because EB2 is over-allocated, leaving EB3 with less than their own allocation. I think that says an awful lot about the control mechanisms (or lack thereof) for visa issuance against Category limits.

Last year was just plain silly. The numbers available to EB2-I from SO could not support such a large forward movement of the COD. Not only did EB3 not receive their full allocation, but EB as a whole overshot the total allocation. Even then, there was still something like another net 4k cases that had to wait for FY2014 to begin to be approved. That's more than 80% more than the spillover available to EB2 in FY2013.

I support movement that ensures no visas are wasted (so some contingency is required), but it has to be done in a sensible way.

tomhagen

05-23-2014, 09:43 AM

I doubt about it :).. for example in 2011, for EB2 it is progressing at 3 months per bulletin. If that would have continued we wouldn't have been in this mess. Porting would have been under control, visa wastage wouldn't have been there. Definitely DOS has to employ some good data analysts :cool:

Spectator

05-29-2014, 11:12 AM

At the outset, let me put this firmly in the classification of RUMOUR. Please read it with the pinch of salt it deserves. It doesn't entirely mesh with the EB2-C COD movement to date, unless that suddenly slows.

The Chinese recently contacted CO to ask about EB2-C use for the FY to date. Part of the reason seems to be that the April Inventory only showed a drop of 212 from the January Inventory figures. CO replied on May 27, 2014, but his actual reply is not quoted.

Frankly, I am struggling with the Chinese translation, but it appears that CO said that, to date, EB2-C had used in excess of 85% of their allocation for the FY. He also pointed out that the Inventory did not cover all cases, citing new filings, District Office, and CP (as best I can tell).

It is possible and it would make some sense to finish the EB2-C approvals before the EB2-I approvals begin, to avoid wastage of their allocation.

There is a flaw in the logic surrounding the 212 reduction. That is just the net reduction in the Inventory.

In reality there are additions as well as approvals, which lowers the net number.

Looking at just the months with reductions, the change Jan-Apr is 815. Similarly, although the net reduction for Oct-Jan was only 687, looking at only months with reductions, this rises to 903.

That is a total of at least 1,718 for the period Oct-Mar. There will be further approvals that are masked by those months that show an overall increase in applications and a further 2 months has now passed since the Inventory period.

I will repeat - this is not entirely verified information (not least due to translation issues), but I thought some people might find it interesting nonetheless.

The original thread is here (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t1/EB23/32117829_0_1.html) and translated (http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mitbbs.com%2Farticle_t1%2FEB23% 2F32117829_0_1.html).

I couldn't reconcile the 960 number mentioned to my satisfaction (perhaps he meant 960+ approvals in the Jan-Mar period).

sairam09

05-29-2014, 04:13 PM

Interesting CH can communicate with CO..

Spectator

05-29-2014, 04:52 PM

Spec,

Thanks for the info. I am really surprised to know that the Chinese have such a communication channel with CO. I really wonder if the unfortunate folks from EB2/3I have a similar thing?

Also, I wonder if this has got a significance to EB2I as well. Does it point to increased porting (unlikely since EB3C was actually ahead), more NIW or any such bad things that can impact EB2I movement?The Chinese have always seemed to have fairly good communication channels with CO in particular.

The data no longer seems to be available, but NIU managed to get some I-140 approval data from USCIS (perhaps via FOIA) in the past covering CY2005 to September 2012.

I have a copy, but since it was labeled "Exclusive", I don't think it is appropriate to publish it.

qesehmk

05-29-2014, 06:26 PM

I think the trick is CH approach CO as a group. I dont think CO is unapproachable but it has to be reasonable request coming from a group rather than individual.

The Chinese have always seemed to have fairly good communication channels with CO in particular.

The data no longer seems to be available, but NIU managed to get some I-140 approval data from USCIS (perhaps via FOIA) in the past covering CY2005 to September 2012.

I have a copy, but since it was labeled "Exclusive", I don't think it is appropriate to publish it.

smuggymba

05-29-2014, 10:01 PM

I think the trick is CH approach CO as a group. I dont think CO is unapproachable but it has to be reasonable request coming from a group rather than individual.

CH info is always correct from past experience. They're the ones who first said that dates will move into 2010 and it did.

medatom

05-30-2014, 09:30 AM

vizcard

05-30-2014, 09:38 AM

The timing of this event actually raises an interesting dynamic.

RFE validity of 1 year means that there will be a real pressure on the USCIS to give green cards within "that window" itself. This is another hard constraint on top of the constraint that no more than 150K green cards be given out. They should not simply stop giving GCs once they run out of numbers. They have to make provisions for those numbers to begin with.

Since EB2I cases are ripe with preadjudication and since the EB2-ROW cases will be unpredictable in nature, I believe this should actually play in our favor. we should see less EB2-ROW approvals and more EB2-I approvals in the last 2 months.

Also, the more I thought about it, the more I take it as an excellent news that RFEs until Sept 2008 are already sent out. There is an entire month of June when more RFEs can be sent with a reasonable expectation of a 60 day turnaround. Those who will get RFE2 in next waves will have an ample time to get greened in Sept.

The USCIS is doing redundant work and we will all be out of $500 on average, but in the short term, this should benefit. Thoughts?

Not sure I agree with ur assessment. I don't believe for a second that medical expiring will force faster approvals. It might push dates further than otherwise because of delays but I'll be shocked to see the speed pick up as a result of this.

vizcard

05-30-2014, 09:47 AM

Just a question and sorry for posting in this thread. Please move to any other as deemed.
I have a PD of 09/2009; Got the EAD and applied for H1 extension and went to india and came back on EAD on 12/13. My wife is also on EAD and just got a job.
I have a job offer in the same field from different local hospital (work in medical field); What are my options;
1. Use AC 21 and transfer to the other hospital
2. Tell them to transfer H1B but i don't have H1B stamped on my passport (H1B is valid until 2015).
3. What will happen to my wife's status if i transfer to the other hospital?
Sorry if not clear in explaining my situation. Any help is appreciated.
Thank You

I am in a similar situation. So I feel I can speak intelligently.

1) H1 or EAD doesn't matter technically. It's a matter of whether your new company will sponsor H1 (personally I would/will use EAD).
2) if you do decide on transferring H1, you could still use AP to travel even if you are working on H1 (I do that now). So no need to get anything new stamped.
3) There will be no change to your wife's status.

Spectator

05-30-2014, 10:32 AM

sports, viz,

I'm not sure the RFEs will have any substantial effect on processing times or movement of the COD.

Currently, there are 4 months to the end of the FY. Applicants have 87 days to reply to an RFE. In reality, most RFE will be responded to within 30 days, if not quicker so, assuming the RFEs are all sent out within the next month, then they will have been responded to by August 1 when the dates are likely to move forward.

Too many pre-adjudicated cases falling into FY2015 (i.e. those adjudicated after visa numbers run out for FY2014) will increase the chance of early retrogression in FY2015. The further the dates are moved forward at the end of FY2014 as contingency, the larger the fall through of pre-adjudicated cases will be in October 2014.

I think it is a delicate balance between not wasting any visas and not using all available visas for FY2015 immediately. CO won't have the luxury of allowing 5-6k approvals for EB2-I in Oct-November 2014 IMO. If the applicant does not get approved in Aug/Sep 2014, the I-693 might expire before another window opens.

I agree EB2-ROW still looks very low and it is now reaching the stage where increased approvals will make less difference to the final total. It remains to be seen whether EB1 approvals are only moderately higher or very much higher.

Spectator

06-02-2014, 03:59 PM

I am curious to know if there is any change of predictions in light of recent RFEs. sports,

That's a "how long is a piece of string" type question!

The dates are very sensitive to the numbers available for the likely Cut Off Date range. There is only about a 5-6k difference between a Cut Off Date of 01NOV08 and 01MAR09.

EB1 use, EB2-WW use and further porting use can all make the difference and I don't think anyone can forecast those numbers with any accuracy at all (I certainly can't). Then there is the question of how much contingency CO builds into the COD movement.

If you want to give me your estimates for EB1 use, EB2-WW (ROW/M/P), EB4, EB5 use and further porting use, I'll tell you where that might move the dates with various contingency levels.

Jagan01

06-02-2014, 05:12 PM

I am curious to know if there is any change of predictions in light of recent RFEs. Here is a summary of the RFe picture:

1) Most RFEs are still from the TSC. NSC seems have to have started but the reports are very few.
2) Most RFEs are until Sept end pointing to a movement up to Oct 1, 2008. There are unconfirmed reports of an RFE in Oct 2008 and one in Feb 2009 (the profiles look genuine). However almost no one in Oct have received RFEs otherwise (myself included). The Feb 2009 RFE is from the NSC.
3) On the other hand, several people are still waiting for the RFEs even in the currently established window.
4) Most RFEs seem to be sent to original filers instead of porters.
5) RFEs are also sent in cases where the case is pending less than 1 year (applied in Aug 2013 etc) - potentially indicating that the date will move in August and not July.
6) I remember reading on a trackitt thread that a person was told by an L2 officer that despite the USCIS policy, RFEs are not sent necessarily. This means that some adjudicators will simply approve the GC without an RFE.

I am trying to get a sense of this. We know the lower bound of the movement, and like everyone, I am anxious. All numbers are still pointing to a movement in Q1 2009. I am curious and am asking the gurus if there is any change in the prediction for this year.

It's just this time of the year, and I am seriously hoping it is the last! I can't spend my summers worrying when the weather is so gorgeous outside.

Sports,

Not an expert but would give my opinion. I understand ur anxiety. I feel the RFEs have just affirmed that final date movement will be either Dec 2008 or Jan 2009. I would bet on Jan09 as that is my PD.

Last year the RFEs went out until Mar 2008 and dates moved 3 months past that. This year it is Sep 2008 and hence dates will surely move to Dec 2008 or may be Jan 2009.

This year would see pretty much the same trend as last year due to the following reasons:
Positive: The porting will be lesser. Most of the people up until Jun 08 have already ported. Hence the hidden demand is lesser.
Negative: CO would not have the same 10k FB based visas to utilize and hence FY15 will not have as many visa allocations in the first quarter.

I believe the above two negate each other and net process will be similar to last year. RFE date + 3 or 4 months movement.

Spectator

06-02-2014, 05:34 PM

- Porting use: Honestly, no idea. 5K for the worst case.sports,

Would that be 5k total porting for the year? Or do you really mean 5k further porting approvals to come?

What I need is how much more porting cases will be approved once the dates advance again.

Based on 2k further porting approvals and using your figures, except using 4k Fall Up for EB4 (based on last year's usage), would give a COD of around 22NOV08 with no contingency.

6k contingency would represent a 31% contingency and move the COD to 08APR09.

10% contingency would give a COD of 01JAN09, while a 20% contingency would give a COD of 15FEB09.

If further porting approvals were 3k, the dates would be 01NOV08, 15MAR09, 15DEC08 and 22JAN respectively.

vizcard

06-02-2014, 05:42 PM

sports,

Would that be 5k total porting for the year? Or do you really mean 5k further porting approvals to come?

What I need is how much more porting cases will be approved once the dates advance again.

I guess this is a broader question and could be in any of the other threads too. Would new porters get RFEs for medicals since they would most certainly be outdated ? If that's the case, the impact of new porters could be reduced particularly if dates move in August instead of July.

Spectator

06-02-2014, 08:01 PM

I guess this is a broader question and could be in any of the other threads too. Would new porters get RFEs for medicals since they would most certainly be outdated ? If that's the case, the impact of new porters could be reduced particularly if dates move in August instead of July.viz,

It's a good point. So far, there is no evidence of porters with earlier PD receiving an I-693 RFE.

Nonetheless, there do seem to be a substantial number of cases with an earliesh PD with an I-485 submitted before December 2013 awaiting approval. Most do not seem to be reflected in the Inventory, so they are likely porters. If RFEs are sent out in a timely fashion, they can be approved this FY. Any new cases where the I-485 still needs to be submitted have (virtually) no chance of approval this FY.

vedu

06-03-2014, 07:06 PM

Kanmani

06-03-2014, 07:30 PM

Great news !

New guessing game :) when does summer start in USA?

vedu

06-03-2014, 07:48 PM

Kanmani,

You are on the boundary here!!! If the information is correct, then the dates will move to somewhere in the May-June 2009 range!

Great news !

New guessing game :) when does summer start in USA?

Kanmani

06-03-2014, 08:04 PM

Vedu, I always keep reminding me right from the last year's movement that i'll be on the border line.

I quote our forum friend Sogadu's (Kolaveri fame) phrase "whole body crossed".

sdesh005

06-03-2014, 09:06 PM

Vedu,

I just want to hug you! You made my day. Thank you! Thank you!

I am really hoping for a significant chunk of people to get through. I hope so!
"The priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance by nearly five years, to an early summer 2009 date, by the September Visa Bulletin."

Nevertheless, I really do hope it advances significantly in to 2009. My PD is July 2009 but I am not optimistic at all! I was unlucky my LC was stuck in Audit last year when the dates went up to 2010, so I couldn't even get EAD! :(

vedu

06-03-2014, 09:08 PM

sportsfan33,

I am also finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for myself by the end of the next year! I want all of you Gurus and Pandits to clear the way for us for the next year! The more people can get through this year, the better it will be!!!

Vedu,

I just want to hug you! You made my day. Thank you! Thank you!

I am really hoping for a significant chunk of people to get through. I hope so!

RGVJSR

06-03-2014, 09:15 PM

Great news !

New guessing game :) when does summer start in USA?

Kanmani,

My PD is just few days before you. In calendar it says Summer starts on 21st June. Fragomen site says dates will move into early summer. I believe our dates will be current. Whether we will get approved is all together a different game. It may depend when we will get RFE. It is sure that at least we will get RFE for medicals.
By the way you know more than I can think of in immigration. I read your posts. Thanks.

Note: Research where to shop for LUCK !!!

-RGVJSR

Kanmani

06-03-2014, 09:27 PM

Kanmani,

My PD is just few days before you. In calendar it says Summer starts on 21st June. Fragomen site says dates will move into early summer. I believe our dates will be current. Whether we will get approved is all together a different game. It may depend when we will get RFE. It is sure that at least we will get RFE for medicals.
By the way you know more than I can think of in immigration. I read your posts. Thanks.

Note: Research where to shop for LUCK !!!

-RGVJSR

RGVJSR,

Let us join hands in the luck game :)

Just spoke with my husband, he too have the same opinion about summer. With respect to Medical RFE, it is required IFF our applications are to be ADJUDICATED!!! The Final GC Button press! Otherwise no need to updated I-693.

My worries are currently I am in India on a mission. My sad part is mission failed. Crying at heart shooting smilies :) :)

smuggymba

06-03-2014, 09:42 PM

If the past experience is any indicator, CO's comments generally transpire in reality. At this point, there are about 4 months remaining in the FY and it is not unrealistic to expect that the CO can project the entire demand in pipeline for all categories. He can definitely make predictions now.

I would say don't lose hope. And even if not this year, next year you are surely in. The more the movement this year, the more the demand cleanup and the closer you are. 2009 is also the most benign year for EB2I demand and it should be over relatively quickly.

Fragomen's website doesn't say the prediction is from Fragomen - it says the prediction is from State Department. I hope 2009 gets over ASAP. My PD is March 2010 and I hope by next July, I get greened.

YTeleven

06-03-2014, 09:55 PM

Guys,

Guessing game is over for this year!!! According to the Fragomen website, EB2 India dates will move to an early summer 2009 date by the year end.

http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFiles/72c63928-c0c2-42e6-9f2e-71e2cc8d7452/Subscriber.snapshot?clid=5dc90fc9-8ae6-4e70-9dea-d99821dd2cc4&cid=746b552c-bf70-4b56-b957-5b713

Let's start the new prediction thread for the next year!!!

This was already predicted on this site: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=45804#post45804
Also, I've projections for FY15 but this is not the appropriate time to disclose it. One thing I would say is FY15 will not be as rosy as FY14 interms of visa numbers for EB2-I.
Key here is EB2-ROW which has a pattern of up and down interms of visa consumption on yearly basis. FY13 it had consumed heavily and FY14 will see least consumption(max 20k) and again FY15 will have high consumption.

smuggymba

06-03-2014, 09:59 PM

This was already predicted on this site: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=45804#post45804
Also, I've projections for FY15 but this is not the appropriate time to disclose it. One thing I would say is FY15 will not be as rosy as FY14 interms of visa numbers for EB2-I.
Key here is EB2-ROW which has a pattern of up and down interms of visa consumption on yearly basis. FY13 it had consumed heavily and FY14 will see least consumption(max 20k) and again FY15 will have high consumption.

I was so happy for 2009 folks and looking forward to next year since my PD is Mar 2010 but you just broke my heart...ouuch!!! :(

vedu

06-03-2014, 10:05 PM

YTeleven,

Indeed, you were spot on about June, 2009! When this year completes, I will be very much looking forward to your new year's predictions along with Spec's analysis. Meanwhile, let's enjoy today's good news!

This was already predicted on this site: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=45804#post45804
Also, I've projections for FY15 but this is not the appropriate time to disclose it. One thing I would say is FY15 will not be as rosy as FY14 interms of visa numbers for EB2-I.
Key here is EB2-ROW which has a pattern of up and down interms of visa consumption on yearly basis. FY13 it had consumed heavily and FY14 will see least consumption(max 20k) and again FY15 will have high consumption.

vizcard

06-03-2014, 10:09 PM

I think it's great news as reported. 3 things to note:
1) This, ofcourse, goes beyond the calculations from the gurus on this site (although kudos to YT). Based on the article, EB1 is supposed to yield SO which was not expected. So that's interesting.
2) CO appears to have a pretty solid handle on the inventory, demand and on porting to make such a strong prediction.
3) this news has not been reported by other law firms (atleast I haven't seen anything). I don't doubt the article as Fragomen is a reputed name but it's curious that no one else reported something this big.

Also, for those with 2010 PDs, there might be a possibility that dates move further in FY15 than the math would suggest to generate demand.

enigma

06-03-2014, 10:40 PM

Vedu - Thanks for sharing this encouraging news. I started off on a google mission and found a similar "client alert" from Fragomen's website predicting PD movement last year. In retrospect, this alert proved to be interesting on two fronts - first is that the prediction came out around the same time last year (June 6th as opposed to June 3rd this year). Secondly, the prediction (Feb 2008) eventually proved to be conservative since the dates actually moved a few months beyond the prediction to June 2008 - hopefully this pattern holds true and benefits those with late summer/fall PDs :)

http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFiles/32e715a9-8b61-4b5b-8c77-980daa8b1b3e/Subscriber.snapshot?clid=5dc90fc9-8ae6-4e70-9dea-d99821dd2cc4&cid=6a13a1c1-d1d8-422f-ab63-4805a0a37e0b&ce=7Z3f5qM2QzWRq6yZI%2Bi7U685P2fN5Gh6

Guys,

Guessing game is over for this year!!! According to the Fragomen website, EB2 India dates will move to an early summer 2009 date by the year end.

http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFiles/72c63928-c0c2-42e6-9f2e-71e2cc8d7452/Subscriber.snapshot?clid=5dc90fc9-8ae6-4e70-9dea-d99821dd2cc4&cid=746b552c-bf70-4b56-b957-5b713

Let's start the new prediction thread for the next year!!!