EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Jagan01]

Sun,

There were 70K approx perm applications received in FY2013, 35K completed and 35K pending at DoL. With this if they start clearing the backlog, we will end up at 1.5 years worth of load this year .

This is similar to I-140 backlog cleared last FY, the processing was slow in the 2012 and picked up in 2013. http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

Let us wait and see.

Kanmani,

So out of 70k, they have approved approx 35k.

Does this 35k include both EB2 and EB3? I am trying to see how did the other user (idiotic) come up with the number of 14k for EB2. Any links ?

[Kanmani]

Jagan,

Here is FY-2013 Perm statistics . http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2013_YTD_Q4.pdf

35K approval includes all employment based applications .

[wavelet3000]

Total number of PERMs (Obtained from OFLC annual report)
=================================================
Year -- India -- Total -- ROW+C

2009 -- 11387 -- 29502 -- 18115
2010 -- 28930 -- 70237 -- 41307
2011 -- 31273 -- 59863 -- 28590
2012 -- 30276 -- 54581 -- 24305
2013 -- 20925 -- 35188 -- 14263

Total number of EB2 GCs allocated (Obtained from DoS annual Visa statistics)
================================================== =============
Year -- India -- Total -- ROW+C

2009 -- 10106 -- 46016 -- 35910
2010 -- 19961 -- 53872 -- 33911
2011 -- 23997 -- 66804 -- 42807
2012 -- 19726 -- 50593 -- 30867
2013 -- 17193 -- 63461 -- 46268


Several issues here
1. PERM data look like by approval year, not by year of PD. DOL's processing times have varied a lot over last 5 years, from as little as 2 weeks to almost a year. Data by Spec to get breakdown by PD year have not been updated since last year.
2. PERM numbers do not include dependents. Typical average multiplier for dependents is 2-3.
3. PERM includes both EB2 and EB3 and filtering by advanced degree requirement is not entirely sufficient.
4. For ROWMP, porters may have multiple PERMS per one primary within the above period.
5. NIW is said to be small but that can be single digit thousands.
6. There are also cases where PERM owner subsequently gets GC by other means - EB1 porting, IR through marriage, changing chargeability country through marriage.

[idiotic]

Several issues here
1. PERM data look like by approval year, not by year of PD. DOL's processing times have varied a lot over last 5 years, from as little as 2 weeks to almost a year. Data by Spec to get breakdown by PD year have not been updated since last year.
2. PERM numbers do not include dependents. Typical average multiplier for dependents is 2-3.
3. PERM includes both EB2 and EB3 and filtering by advanced degree requirement is not entirely sufficient.
4. For ROWMP, porters may have multiple PERMS per one primary within the above period.
5. NIW is said to be small but that can be single digit thousands.
6. There are also cases where PERM owner subsequently gets GC by other means - EB1 porting, IR through marriage, changing chargeability country through marriage.

Thanks for the excellent review comments.. Agreed with all your comments..

My intention was never to make thorough analysis considering all the factors. I was just trying to keep things simple by gauging the incoming rate of EB2 ROW vs outgoing rate of EB2 ROW to gauge..

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Any possibility that PERM slowdowns would make CO start moving the dates by May/June instead of waiting till Aug/Sep?

[Jagan01]

Any possibility that PERM slowdowns would make CO start moving the dates by May/June instead of waiting till Aug/Sep?

Doesn't matter much...

I just hope that the slowdown results in increased spillover... If we can get around 10k from EB2ROW then it would be good enough to move dates well into 2009...

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Doesn't matter much...

I just hope that the slowdown results in increased spillover... If we can get around 10k from EB2ROW then it would be good enough to move dates well into 2009...

I hear you but what I'm interested in is the timing of when CO starts to apply the spillover.

[pramod]

Latest demand data
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[redsox2009]

Demand data is out

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

umulative
Demand Prior To
All Other
Countries China India Grand Total
January 1, 2004 0 0 5 5
January 1, 2009 0 325 10,550 10,875
January 1, 2010 0 2,600 24,500 27,100
January 1, 2013 175 3,425 29,500 33,100
Cumulative
Demand Prior To
All Other
Countries China India Mexico Philippines
Grand
Total
January 1, 2004 * * 2,775 * 0 2,775
January 1, 2005 * * 13,000 * 0 13,000
January 1, 2006 * * 19,550 * 0 19,550
January 1, 2007 * * 27,500 * 300 27,800
January 1, 2013 * * 30,350 * 1,550 31,900

[rosharma]

Why total number of VISA is still 148000? Shouldn't it be 150000 after FB allocation?

[Jagan01]

I hear you but what I'm interested in is the timing of when CO starts to apply the spillover.

VB is out and not movements expected... I do not think dates move before Aug... Aug is when you can expect the first movement...
http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-march-2014.html

[Jagan01]

To me significant thing in this demand data is 175 backlog for EB2 ROW.. EB2 ROW was never backlogged so far at least in demand data. This is the first time it happened..

It was 200 in the last DD.

[idiotic]

It was 200 in the last DD.

My Mistake..

I was using this data from the forum and overlooked.. deleted the original post..

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates

[Jagan01]

My Mistake..

I was using this data from the forum and overlooked.. deleted the original post..

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates

Demand:
1. 10,500 pending before Jan 2009.
2. This demand should have accounted for all the applications that have been filed until Nov 2013. There has been sufficient time for all porters to have been included in this data.

Supply:
1. I would think that the annual quota has been used up for EB2I in FY 2014.
2. Based on the spillover we can estimate getting 2.5k from FB, 4k from EB4, 2.5k from EB1 (The FB visa that they get. I am assuming EB1 uses its allocation of 40k like last year).
3. Spillover from 37k (43 for EB2 - EB2I - EB2C) that EB2ROW will not use. This is the killer factor. It can range from 3k to 10k.
4. Supply remaining will range from 12k - 19k

Dates movement (This does not mean everyone before PD gets GC):
Lower end - With 12k we should enter Feb 2009.
Higher end - With 19k this should cover Aug 2009. If they move to Aug 2009, then it would leave inventory of 8k left + new porting. It will all depend on the new porting whether the CO wants to build more demand or not.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Sorry to post off-topic here but I just wanted to share a news item that I came across today to notify fellow Indians who may be applying for OCI, PIO cards etc. in next few months. Please move this post to the appropriate section or remove it after few days.

Indian Embassy in Washington DC has invited bids for outsourcing of services related to issuance of Indian visas, overseas Citizen of India (OCI) and Person of Indian Origin (PIO) cards, surrender and renunciation of Indian citizenship certificate. This is due to dissatisfaction with the services provided by BLS International and multiple customer complaints received by the Embassy.

It is unclear whether the new company will be awarded the contract to issue Indian Passports also or not?

Here is the news link and Embassy link.

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/us-indian-embassy-invites-bids-for-visa-outsourcing/20140209.htm

http://www.cgisf.org/notice/display/96

http://www.cgisf.org/notice/display/97

[bvsamrat]

Thanks God. BLS is pain the rear.

We are in the process of applying for my daughter's OCI who had renounced her Indian Passport 10 years back as duly marked on her passport before obtaining Indian Visa . But Now BLS returned her OCI application back stating that she should renounce once again.

There no customer service and no response and no clarification. Whatever its worth, I prefer Indian Govt to deal directly in these issues.





Sorry to post off-topic here but I just wanted to share a news item that I came across today to notify fellow Indians who may be applying for OCI, PIO cards etc. in next few months. Please move this post to the appropriate section or remove it after few days.

Indian Embassy in Washington DC has invited bids for outsourcing of services related to issuance of Indian visas, overseas Citizen of India (OCI) and Person of Indian Origin (PIO) cards, surrender and renunciation of Indian citizenship certificate. This is due to dissatisfaction with the services provided by BLS International and multiple customer complaints received by the Embassy.

It is unclear whether the new company will be awarded the contract to issue Indian Passports also or not?

Here is the news link and Embassy link.

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/us-indian-embassy-invites-bids-for-visa-outsourcing/20140209.htm

http://www.cgisf.org/notice/display/96

http://www.cgisf.org/notice/display/97

[imdeng]

EB3-C-ROW movement has now gone from ridiculous to ludicrous. Another 3 months movement - how in hell do they not have enough inventory by now. I have been sceptical of Q's assertion that EB3 might go C and give horizontal spillover to EB3I pretty soon; but the way things are going, we might be there pretty soon.

EB3ROW was 01-MAY-07 one year back. It is now at 01-SEP-12: More than five years movement in one year - and it does not seem to have finished yet. Is there anything else going on other than low EB3ROW density past 07/07?


VB is out and not movements expected... I do not think dates move before Aug... Aug is when you can expect the first movement...
http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-march-2014.html

[ksur23]

Demand:
1. 10,500 pending before Jan 2009.
2. This demand should have accounted for all the applications that have been filed until Nov 2013. There has been sufficient time for all porters to have been included in this data.

Supply:
1. I would think that the annual quota has been used up for EB2I in FY 2014.
2. Based on the spillover we can estimate getting 2.5k from FB, 4k from EB4, 2.5k from EB1 (The FB visa that they get. I am assuming EB1 uses its allocation of 40k like last year).
3. Spillover from 37k (43 for EB2 - EB2I - EB2C) that EB2ROW will not use. This is the killer factor. It can range from 3k to 10k.
4. Supply remaining will range from 12k - 19k

Dates movement (This does not mean everyone before PD gets GC):
Lower end - With 12k we should enter Feb 2009.
Higher end - With 19k this should cover Aug 2009. If they move to Aug 2009, then it would leave inventory of 8k left + new porting. It will all depend on the new porting whether the CO wants to build more demand or not.

This analysis augurs well for someone like me with a PD of Jan 2009. My impression from discussions in the forum until a week back was that 2009 was a distant possibility at best this year. What changed that exactly?
Thanks!

[shreyasai2004]

Hi All,

As per demand data can we expect the dates will move until Dec 2008 by end of this fiscal year. Because I my PD 29th July 2008. Can I expect the dates will move and will I get my GC by end of this FY.

thanks

[redwood]

Sun,

There were 70K approx perm applications received in FY2013, 35K completed and 35K pending at DoL. With this if they start clearing the backlog, we will end up at 1.5 years worth of load this year .

This is similar to I-140 backlog cleared last FY, the processing was slow in the 2012 and picked up in 2013. http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

Let us wait and see.

Kanmani

The Dashboard is amazing piece of information. When does the data refresh ? If we look at the I-140 approvals from June 12 to Aug 13(Assuming 1 month lag between I-140 approval and GC approval, EB2ROW was U since July 2012), there were ~106K I-140 approvals. This year, the average is exactly half of that (Sep - Nov 13). Hence this year EB2ROW GC issued will be exactly half of last year(~21K) yielding EB2I a spillover of 17-18K. (after accounting 3K for C)

Of course the PERM processing is the wild factor as it becomes an input to I-140 approval numbers. There is not a big probability of speeding up PERM as the budget is tight even after the sequestration relief for this year.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani

The Dashboard is amazing piece of information. When does the data refresh ? If we look at the I-140 approvals from June 12 to Aug 13(Assuming 1 month lag between I-140 approval and GC approval, EB2ROW was U since July 2012), there were ~106K I-140 approvals. This year, the average is exactly half of that (Sep - Nov 13). Hence this year EB2ROW GC issued will be exactly half of last year(~21K) yielding EB2I a spillover of 17-18K. (after accounting 3K for C)

Of course the PERM processing is the wild factor as it becomes an input to I-140 approval numbers. There is not a big probability of speeding up PERM as the budget is tight even after the sequestration relief for this year.

The time lag between I140 processing and GC approval could be 3 months as I-485 comes into effect only after the I-140 approval. They are not processed simultaneously, so overall average time to clear a concurrent filing could be 6 to 8 months.

Yes it is good to see that the pending I-140 graph line is considerably low, receipts are also on the lower side. But we have to wait until May 2014 to see the trend. They could speed up the process and clear more applications to maximize the RoW usage.

[imdeng]

It is very likely in my opinion.

Hi All,

As per demand data can we expect the dates will move until Dec 2008 by end of this fiscal year. Because I my PD 29th July 2008. Can I expect the dates will move and will I get my GC by end of this FY.

thanks

[imdeng]

I would add that the continued move in EB3ROW will perhaps stop any EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting, and change the EB2/EB3 ratio for ROW - leading to a little more horizontal spillover for EB2I.

A. realization that the cumulative backlog before 2009 is ~10K and not ~15K?
B. possibility that EB5 will remain current?
C. Continued perm slowdowns?

Just possibilities, I am wondering the same thing though. Hopefully jagan clarifies.

[Jagan01]

A. realization that the cumulative backlog before 2009 is ~10K and not ~15K?
B. possibility that EB5 will remain current?
C. Continued perm slowdowns?

Just possibilities, I am wondering the same thing though. Hopefully jagan clarifies.

I agree to what Sports mentioned.

The biggest piece of data we have had is the demand data published last week. That shows that there are 10500 candidates prior to Jan 2009. This removed the questions that have been around the demand side of things. There were many applicants that had ported and had applied in the period from Aug-Nov. Now all that is factored in and the number pending before Jan 2009 is 10500.

Supply side is also pretty clear. There will be good spillover from EB2ROW due to slow down in PERM, sufficient enough to negate the effect of lower spillover from FB (10k instead of 18k from last year).

The only unknown we have is "How many visas from FY 2014 allocation were used up until now". In my assumption, I have assumed that to be the annual 3000 that is allowed to EB2I. Different people have different take on that. We will never know that number.

[vishnu]

Looking at 2007-13 EB2 India visas issued, average over the period is 18,000.

Do we have a sense of what type of backlog CO would like to maintain pre-spillover season. Safe to say at least around 18-20,000? Otherwise, there is the risk of visa wastage.

[idiotic]

Looking at 2007-13 EB2 India visas issued, average over the period is 18,000.

Do we have a sense of what type of backlog CO would like to maintain pre-spillover season. Safe to say at least around 18-20,000? Otherwise, there is the risk of visa wastage.


Invetory buildup has to happen during FY15.. It is increasingly looking that way.. How much the dates move and when the dates move is CO's decision based on the visibility he has..

[Jagan01]

I agree with 3000 or close to it (I read MATT saying on tracking about 6000 were issued though). The reason is that if more were issued, CO would make the dates U unless he was absolutely certain that numbers could be accommodated. Judging by how he has acted so far, I feel it is unlikely.

1. There might be 5k-6k approvals post Oct 2013. Again that is mapping trackitt data and it is not always accurate. I would say there might have been 5k max approvals after Oct 2013.
2. I feel 2k might have come from numbers allotted in previous FY and just took time to show up. May be they were allotted numbers in Sep from FY 2013 and actually got visas in November.
3. The remaining 3k would be from FY2014 allocation.

[imdeng]

Last time when inventory was generated, it wasn't until the current inventory was almost gone. I would expect the same to happen again. Right now they are sitting on 29.5K EB2I demand. Of this, I would (optimistically) expect 16-20K to be used in FY2014. In second half of FY2015, if it continues to look like EB2I may run through the demand by the end of the FY, then new inventory will be generated by extending the dates. However, its not inconceivable (with including porting in the mix) that the current inventory takes us through FY14 and FY15, leading to new inventory in FY16 only.

Looking at 2007-13 EB2 India visas issued, average over the period is 18,000.

Do we have a sense of what type of backlog CO would like to maintain pre-spillover season. Safe to say at least around 18-20,000? Otherwise, there is the risk of visa wastage.

[imdeng]

I would think that whenever CO gets the opportunity, he would at least advance the dates enough for EB2C to match or exceed EB3C.
PS> I think it is more a case of transference on my side - don't know if CO cares really about the ridiculousness of the situation.


Invetory buildup has to happen during FY15.. It is increasingly looking that way.. How much the dates move and when the dates move is CO's decision based on the visibility he has..

[imdeng]

CO is a stickler of rules as far as possible - so I don't think he would use more than the normal yearly quota for FY2014 (~3K) for EB2I before the spillover situation becomes clear.

1. There might be 5k-6k approvals post Oct 2013. Again that is mapping trackitt data and it is not always accurate. I would say there might have been 5k max approvals after Oct 2013.
2. I feel 2k might have come from numbers allotted in previous FY and just took time to show up. May be they were allotted numbers in Sep from FY 2013 and actually got visas in November.
3. The remaining 3k would be from FY2014 allocation.

[Jagan01]

Looking at 2007-13 EB2 India visas issued, average over the period is 18,000.

Do we have a sense of what type of backlog CO would like to maintain pre-spillover season. Safe to say at least around 18-20,000? Otherwise, there is the risk of visa wastage.

You need to account for the fact that porting will kick in. Inventory build up might happen earliest by summer of 2015 and latest by summer of 2016.
1. There are 18k pending today in 2009 and 2010. There will be around 5k porters added if the dates move to Mar 2009. 18+5 = 22k. I think 22k is sufficient number to not build the demand.
2. A rare chance is that there will be huge spillover from EB2ROW, sufficient enough to move dates to Aug 2009. In that case he might get an inventory that is below 20k and the dates might move in summer of 2015.

[vishnu]

agreed last time it was done only after inventory went to near 0, but lets think about timing...

in 2011, we had 30,000 inventory (eb2 i+c) pre-spillover, and went to near 0 towards Q3'2011, and dates starting moving from October 2011 till around feb 2012 aggressively, to build inventory

now we are similar inventory situation (30,000), lets assume around 20k EB2 I/C visas are issued (perhaps optimistic, but lets assume), so inventory by september 2013 will be 10,000...

now if he waits till summer 2015 to move dates, there maybe the risk of visa wastage

he does know that in the past > 10k visas have been issued each year

remember, untill he moves the dates, he does not know what demand is going to be like (technically he can via I-140 data, but practically does not appear to be this way)

hence i feel that he will move dates before 2015 spill over season to make sure inventory at any point is at least > 20k

lets debate this... not trying to force thru any strong arguments, but worth considering this analysis

[kkruna]

There are some people with PD before May 2010 and who missed filing last time. As dates advance, their numbers would add up too.

[redwood]

I would assume Fall or Spring would be a good time for inventory build up rather than Summer as they are doing right now with EB3ROW and how they did with EB2I in 2012. If we get 20K+ this year, the CO will be left with 15K demand (3K porting+2K others). Will that be a sufficient reason for inventory buildup ? It will depend on factors in play at that time.

[YTeleven]

I agree to what Sports mentioned.

The biggest piece of data we have had is the demand data published last week. That shows that there are 10500 candidates prior to Jan 2009. This removed the questions that have been around the demand side of things. There were many applicants that had ported and had applied in the period from Aug-Nov. Now all that is factored in and the number pending before Jan 2009 is 10500.

Supply side is also pretty clear. There will be good spillover from EB2ROW due to slow down in PERM, sufficient enough to negate the effect of lower spillover from FB (10k instead of 18k from last year).

The only unknown we have is "How many visas from FY 2014 allocation were used up until now". In my assumption, I have assumed that to be the annual 3000 that is allowed to EB2I. Different people have different take on that. We will never know that number.

Here is the calculated numbers for visa allocation and expected inventory so far in FY2014.
These are approximated to nearest 50 and the input used to calculate was oct'13 inventory, Nov'13DD and Feb'14DD.

[YTeleven]

I don't get these numbers. How did you calculate X, Y and Z, and how did you make the future projections?

These are NOT future projections. These visas are already issued and hence the inventory should look like those numbers. These are calculated from the 3 available input files.

Let me show how to check the 7k figure is correct or not:
Oct2013 EB2I Inventory data before Jan2009---13645 A
EB2I Feb14DD data before Jan2009---------------10550 B
EB2I Inventory reduction (A-B)----------------------3095 C

Oct2013 EB3I Inventory data before 2008--------34336 D
EB3I Feb14DD data-----------------------------------30350 E
EB3I Inventory reduction (D-E)----------------------3986 F

Total EBI Inventory Reduction so far(C+F)---------7081

[Jagan01]

agreed last time it was done only after inventory went to near 0, but lets think about timing...

in 2011, we had 30,000 inventory (eb2 i+c) pre-spillover, and went to near 0 towards Q3'2011, and dates starting moving from October 2011 till around feb 2012 aggressively, to build inventory

now we are similar inventory situation (30,000), lets assume around 20k EB2 I/C visas are issued (perhaps optimistic, but lets assume), so inventory by september 2013 will be 10,000...

now if he waits till summer 2015 to move dates, there maybe the risk of visa wastage

he does know that in the past > 10k visas have been issued each year

remember, untill he moves the dates, he does not know what demand is going to be like (technically he can via I-140 data, but practically does not appear to be this way)

hence i feel that he will move dates before 2015 spill over season to make sure inventory at any point is at least > 20k

lets debate this... not trying to force thru any strong arguments, but worth considering this analysis

If you want to be realistic then there is a minimal chance of inventory build up before 2016. The only big ticket is EB2ROW. If that throws up some huge spillover then it is a possibility.

1. I would say every month that the dates move ahead beyond June 2008, you can safely assume and additional 400 porters. Currently there are 1.5 k prior to June 2008.
porters = 400 * (PD in sep 2014 - June 2008) {for example : if PD in sep 2014 goes to Mar 2009 then porters will be 400 * 9 = 3600}
2. Actual demand visible to CO by Nov 2014 will include porting.
3. If EB2I totally gets same as last year (17k which is tough) then 3k out of that is already used up. So 14k remain. That 14k will eat up the demand until Feb 2009.
4. After that there are 16k in the inventory + 3.5k of new porters. Total inventory would be ~20 k

Practically next year is supposed to be very bad. FB visas will be minimal. I do not see any changes in EB1 and EB5. EB2ROW might be the lone hope in the FY2015. If this year is 17k then next year is surely less than that. May be 15k.

CO would in Nov 2014 have ~20k pending inventory and in the next year he knows the projection is less than ~15k. Why would he need to build up inventory. He would wait till Feb to see the picture and if he feels there is low inventory then he might. But as explained that will not be the case.

[Jagan01]

If you want to be realistic then there is a minimal chance of inventory build up before 2016. The only big ticket is EB2ROW. If that throws up some huge spillover then it is a possibility.

1. I would say every month that the dates move ahead beyond June 2008, you can safely assume and additional 400 porters. Currently there are 1.5 k prior to June 2008.
porters = 400 * (PD in sep 2014 - June 2008) {for example : if PD in sep 2014 goes to Mar 2009 then porters will be 400 * 9 = 3600}
2. Actual demand visible to CO by Nov 2014 will include porting.
3. If EB2I totally gets same as last year (17k which is tough) then 3k out of that is already used up. So 14k remain. That 14k will eat up the demand until Feb 2009.
4. After that there are 16k in the inventory + 3.5k of new porters. Total inventory would be ~20 k

Practically next year is supposed to be very bad. FB visas will be minimal. I do not see any changes in EB1 and EB5. EB2ROW might be the lone hope in the FY2015. If this year is 17k then next year is surely less than that. May be 15k.

CO would in Nov 2014 have ~20k pending inventory and in the next year he knows the projection is less than ~15k. Why would he need to build up inventory. He would wait till Feb to see the picture and if he feels there is low inventory then he might. But as explained that will not be the case.

Having provided the above explanation, it all hinges around EB2ROW. That is the big number which will dictate the movement ahead, and building of inventory in case we get a good spillover from them.

[redwood]

Having provided the above explanation, it all hinges around EB2ROW. That is the big number which will dictate the movement ahead, and building of inventory in case we get a good spillover from them.

In other words, it all hinges on PERM speed, notwithstanding EB2NIW. Last year it was the I-140 backlog clearance that increased the EB2ROW usage but there is minimum I-140 backlog this year.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1 (courtesy Kanmani)

[drop2ocean]

There are some people with PD before May 2010 and who missed filing last time. As dates advance, their numbers would add up too.

i know quite a few people who left US with PDs in 2010/2009. So hopefully that will counteract this.

[redwood]

It will be interesting to see how the next inventory buildup will take place.

What if CO is left with 10-15K inventory? I think the next buildup (unfortunately) will result in waste of visas for EB2I. CO will stick to the quota for 9 months and move the dates aggressively in the last 3 bringing the inventory to near 0. However in order to fulfil the numbers, some visas will flow down to EB3. If ROW is current then (as it seems likely), more visas to EB3I.

I agree with you. However, we don't know at what demand level would the CO move dates. He has been doing it only at demand level close to 0 but what if EB2I demand is <8K @begining of the year, would he ?

[gc4a_k]

if the PD in Sep/Oct moves beyond, lets say, March 2009 and then retrogresses after 2 months (Nov/Dec), will people with PD of March 2009 and below who have already filed for I-485 get their GC's or will they have to wait till their dates become current again.

[vinrobo]

if the PD in Sep/Oct moves beyond, lets say, March 2009 and then retrogresses after 2 months (Nov/Dec), will people with PD of March 2009 and below who have already filed for I-485 get their GC's or will they have to wait till their dates become current again.
In that case you will need to wait until your dates become current again. My PD was surrent in Jan 2012. Applied 485. But dates retrogressed and I am still waiting. I got EAD/AP though.

[civilengineer]

Canada cancelled the investor immigration program. Will that lead to a surge in demand for EB-5 in US? 65,000 applications being returned.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/12/news/canada-chinese-immigration/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

[qesehmk]

Canada cancelled the investor immigration program. Will that lead to a surge in demand for EB-5 in US? 65,000 applications being returned.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/12/news/canada-chinese-immigration/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Interesting news. Thanks.

It will certainly divert some but not all. But even if one assumes 10% are diverted ... that's enough to consume all EB5 visas for next year or this.

The reason not all will convert is because Canadian program is pretty much an interest free loan to the government whereas American program requires actual investment and proof that 10 jobs were really created. American program is not as easy as it sounds. You can lose your 1/2 mil and not have a GC.

In a world where all governments are printing money - the incentive to have interest free investment isn't enough when compared to the wrath of anti immigration forces. Besides canada is doing very well financially thanks to the rise in all sorts of commodities and the shell gas. Gone are the days when candian dollar could be bought for 70-80 US cents.

[surya1975]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_SelectedStatistics_FY_2014_Q1.pdf
Perm approval data released. Gurus based on this any new predictions on EB2-I?

[gcpursuit]

I am posting it here since this is the most visited thread. Admins, please feel free to move it.

I need some suggestions on using Consular Processing. My PD is June 29, 2009 and this is considering the best case scenario where my PD may get current. I have not filed my I-485 yet and I will be a first time filer IF my PD gets current. So, in my best case scenario I can get EAD but GC will have to be few more years(??)

I chose Consular Processing in my I-140 and hence I can do CP also. I received a NVC notification to pay my CP fees last year and I have not paid it yet. I am assuming once I pay it, it will ask me for documents etc., I dont know if thats true in this case since the PD is not even close to getting current. For discussion purposes, lets say I am submitting the documents and NVC processes them before July.

Since the dates are going to be current only for couple of months, I am not sure if I would get my CP interview scheduled. So, I am kind of confused whether to pay the fees and keep myself documentarily qualified for CP or just get an EAD. It is more like choosing between 50% GC chance vs 100% EAD if the best case scenario happens. Is CP a good idea to consider when the dates are going to be current only for 2 months? Any suggestions?

Some History :

In 2012, my previous employer was willing to provide support to my GC and we submitted docs to the NVC. We were documentarily qualified also but the PD retrogressed before we got the interview scheduled. We spent close to $3500 for nothing. Our attorneys suggested that we can still file AOS even when we are not with the sponsoring employer.I already had a EB2-NIW denied in 2008.So,we were afraid to take any chances and did not move forward. Later in the year, my current employer got my 140 approved and I was able to keep the previous PD.

[shekhar_kuruk]

I am posting it here since this is the most visited thread. Admins, please feel free to move it.

I need some suggestions on using Consular Processing. My PD is June 29, 2009 and this is considering the best case scenario where my PD may get current. I have not filed my I-485 yet and I will be a first time filer IF my PD gets current. So, in my best case scenario I can get EAD but GC will have to be few more years(??)

I chose Consular Processing in my I-140 and hence I can do CP also. I received a NVC notification to pay my CP fees last year and I have not paid it yet. I am assuming once I pay it, it will ask me for documents etc., I dont know if thats true in this case since the PD is not even close to getting current. For discussion purposes, lets say I am submitting the documents and NVC processes them before July.

Since the dates are going to be current only for couple of months, I am not sure if I would get my CP interview scheduled. So, I am kind of confused whether to pay the fees and keep myself documentarily qualified for CP or just get an EAD. It is more like choosing between 50% GC chance vs 100% EAD if the best case scenario happens. Is CP a good idea to consider when the dates are going to be current only for 2 months? Any suggestions?

Some History :

In 2012, my previous employer was willing to provide support to my GC and we submitted docs to the NVC. We were documentarily qualified also but the PD retrogressed before we got the interview scheduled. We spent close to $3500 for nothing. Our attorneys suggested that we can still file AOS even when we are not with the sponsoring employer.I already had a EB2-NIW denied in 2008.So,we were afraid to take any chances and did not move forward. Later in the year, my current employer got my 140 approved and I was able to keep the previous PD.

I am trying to answer your questions but after reading your post a couple of times I think I need more information.
1. Are you in the US right now?
2. Even if you file AOS instead of CP and the dates become current, if all your documentation is correct, you may receive your GC in a couple of months, the chances are low but I think they are the same as CP, but the EAD is guaranteed.
3. Why do you think using CP is better, the information you have provided above where you spent close to $3500 for nothing, proves that it is risky.

[Jagan01]

I am posting it here since this is the most visited thread. Admins, please feel free to move it.

I need some suggestions on using Consular Processing. My PD is June 29, 2009 and this is considering the best case scenario where my PD may get current. I have not filed my I-485 yet and I will be a first time filer IF my PD gets current. So, in my best case scenario I can get EAD but GC will have to be few more years(??)

I chose Consular Processing in my I-140 and hence I can do CP also. I received a NVC notification to pay my CP fees last year and I have not paid it yet. I am assuming once I pay it, it will ask me for documents etc., I dont know if thats true in this case since the PD is not even close to getting current. For discussion purposes, lets say I am submitting the documents and NVC processes them before July.

Since the dates are going to be current only for couple of months, I am not sure if I would get my CP interview scheduled. So, I am kind of confused whether to pay the fees and keep myself documentarily qualified for CP or just get an EAD. It is more like choosing between 50% GC chance vs 100% EAD if the best case scenario happens. Is CP a good idea to consider when the dates are going to be current only for 2 months? Any suggestions?

Some History :

In 2012, my previous employer was willing to provide support to my GC and we submitted docs to the NVC. We were documentarily qualified also but the PD retrogressed before we got the interview scheduled. We spent close to $3500 for nothing. Our attorneys suggested that we can still file AOS even when we are not with the sponsoring employer.I already had a EB2-NIW denied in 2008.So,we were afraid to take any chances and did not move forward. Later in the year, my current employer got my 140 approved and I was able to keep the previous PD.

I am thinking on similar lines. But it all depends on when the dates move and when does CO retrogress the dates. Both the factors cannot be predicted.
I think CO will follow the following pattern:
1. Move ahead in Aug to X
2. Move ahead to Y in Sep (Y will be based on the demand and supply data he has)
3. Keep the dates at Y until Nov. --> This is the key thing. I think he has decided that keeping dates until Nov gives him a chance to see the porting demand. He might give up the annual quota in the process. However, that is still following the rules and giving 3000 to EB2I in the begining of the year instead of steady visas across the year.

If he follows the above pattern then you might have 3 months window open.

[gcpursuit]

I am trying to answer your questions but after reading your post a couple of times I think I need more information.
1. Are you in the US right now?
2. Even if you file AOS instead of CP and the dates become current, if all your documentation is correct, you may receive your GC in a couple of months, the chances are low but I think they are the same as CP, but the EAD is guaranteed.
3. Why do you think using CP is better, the information you have provided above where you spent close to $3500 for nothing, proves that it is risky.

1. Yes
2. I agree.
3. Last time we got the NVC notice during the first week of January. We sent our documents end of Feb (Feb 27th ) -- I think we waited too long to move forward. The NVC finished processing within 15 days (~ March 16th) - not sure if they are this fast at all times. We did not make it to the April interview list ( they publish the list around VB time ). There was a possibility that we could have been on May list but the dates retrogressed in May.

According to Ron Gotcher, the interviews are typically scheduled the month following the month when dates get current ( after getting documentarily qualified ). If I get current in August, interview will be in September. I am not sure how CP will work with such brief periods of forward movement. What happens to people who get current in September and date retrogresses in October? Thats my main doubt.

Honestly, I am more concerned about FY2015 with no FB spillovers, PERM picking up speed, high EB1 usage, porting. That's why the option of getting GC this year( which looks better than next year ) is more lucrative if 2 months is enough for scheduling interview.

[gcpursuit]

I am thinking on similar lines. But it all depends on when the dates move and when does CO retrogress the dates. Both the factors cannot be predicted.
I think CO will follow the following pattern:
1. Move ahead in Aug to X
2. Move ahead to Y in Sep (Y will be based on the demand and supply data he has)
3. Keep the dates at Y until Nov. --> This is the key thing. I think he has decided that keeping dates until Nov gives him a chance to see the porting demand. He might give up the annual quota in the process. However, that is still following the rules and giving 3000 to EB2I in the begining of the year instead of steady visas across the year.

If he follows the above pattern then you might have 3 months window open.

Thanks for your thoughts, Jagan. Do you think getting GC through AOS is possible within 3 months?

[Jagan01]

Thanks for your thoughts, Jagan. Do you think getting GC through AOS is possible within 3 months?

Last year many people got it in 3 months. I would say a lot of the Aug first time filers got GC. So yes it is possible to get approved in 3 months

Basically, dates will be moved looking at the visible inventory and most who have pre-adj cases ready before the PD in Sep will get GCs. Around 3000 first time filers have a chance in the event that CO decides to do what he did this year. Keep approving GCs until annual allocation is used up.

[Jagan01]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_SelectedStatistics_FY_2014_Q1.pdf
Perm approval data released. Gurus based on this any new predictions on EB2-I?

Hey thanks for this update.
It is pretty much inline with the expectations. We can consider PERM data from 5 quarters to count towards EB2ROW. FY2013 Q2(9k),Q3(7k),Q4(7k) an FY2014 Q1(9k),Q2(?k). This is the worst case assumption.

Assuming FY2014 Q2 is 10k, the total becomes 42k. Out of this 35% will be ROW ~15k. EB2 10k and EB3 5k. The consumption will me a multiple of 2. Hence EB2ROW should not take up more than 20k visas. If that happens then we can get 14k additional spillover.

[gc4a_k]

In that case you will need to wait until your dates become current again. My PD was surrent in Jan 2012. Applied 485. But dates retrogressed and I am still waiting. I got EAD/AP though.

sorry, I was not clear.. what happens after you get EAD and the PD becomes current again. will you get your GC even if the date retrogresses.

[PD2008AUG25]

sorry, I was not clear.. what happens after you get EAD and the PD becomes current again. will you get your GC even if the date retrogresses.

If visa number was assigned to your application during the time period PD was current, you will get it even if PD retrogresses.

[jimmys]

My PD is 07/17/2009 and I haven't filed my 485 yet. Is there a chance, however slim it may be, to file my 485 this year?

[vizcard]

My PD is 07/17/2009 and I haven't filed my 485 yet. Is there a chance, however slim it may be, to file my 485 this year?

0.0001% - maybe even less.

[Kanmani]

My PD is 07/17/2009 and I haven't filed my 485 yet. Is there a chance, however slim it may be, to file my 485 this year?

jimmys, Welcome to the forum.

I personally think there is 50-50 chance to file your I-485 this year . Getting the physical card is not assured though.

This year is very much different from 2013, right from perm backlog, lower I-140 receipts/pending list, EB2 RoW is not retrogressed as it was in FY2013. As of now EB1/EB5 usage is similar to that of FY2013. EB2 ROW is expected to be lower than last year.

75% chance to move beyond March 2009, 50 % chance to move between July 2009-Sept 2009

[Jagan01]

jimmys, Welcome to the forum.

I personally think there is 50-50 chance to file your I-485 this year . Getting the physical card is not assured though.

This year is very much different from 2013, right from perm backlog, lower I-140 receipts/pending list, EB2 RoW is not retrogressed as it was in FY2013. As of now EB1/EB5 usage is similar to that of FY2013. EB2 ROW is expected to be lower than last year.

75% chance to move beyond March 2009, 50 % chance to move between July 2009-Sept 2009

Jimmys,

Welcome...

I personally feel there is more chance than what Viz mentioned and less than what Kanmani mentioned. I tend to agree with Kanmani but here is the trick.

It depends on when the CO moves date.
1. If dates are moved in Aug and Sep then 75% chance of dates moving to Feb 2009 and 50% of dates moving to May 2009 and then it gradually tapers.
2. If CO thinks there is very good spillover due to lower EB2ROW usage then he can start moving dates earlier. If dates move starting May then porters will start showing up before the Aug and Sep months. That will change the entire scenario as CO will know exactly what the actual + porting demand is and then it makes chances of movement beyond Mar 2009 very very tough.

[Dumstuck]

This question may not be related to current thread, but let me mention it over here.

I was comparing demand data and Oct inventory. I'm not sure but somewhere I felt that chances of moving priority dates further in case of EB3 could be more as -
1. They are porting it to EB2.
2. China and other countries are current, except Philippines, that too has around 1500 something application before Jan 2013. If that's the case then EB3 can expect horizontal spill over from EB3 category itself, boosting to move their priority date further.

[Wizoz2]

This is out of topic. So forum moderators please feel to move it else where if appropriate. I have a priority date of 2010 in the EB2 category. Looking to move jobs on EAD. Had been on EAd for 2 years now. The original job description for GC was software engineer II, but new position being offered is Software QA engineer. Per AC21 rules, is it wise to make a switch, and how much should the job description and duties match. Totally confused and stressed right now. Looking for answers

[Wizoz2]

May not be the right three to post in.
Q, Kanmani and other gurus need your help.
I am looking to move to a new employer on EAD. The job offered would likely be "Software QA Engineer" and GC was filed for "Software Engineer". Need your thoughts on AC21. Would it be okay to accept the position of Software QA Engineer and if so to what extent do the duties need to match for AC21 approval. BTW My AC21 has been pending for more than 180 days. I am looking to some insights on how to approach this situation and need to give an answer ASAP.

[jaco1647]

Having provided the above explanation, it all hinges around EB2ROW. That is the big number which will dictate the movement ahead, and building of inventory in case we get a good spillover from them.

Any idea Jagan when EB2I - PD 2/2/2009 will be current? I'm new to this forum and any insight will be appreciated.

[imdeng]

EB3 ROW/C is current for the purpose of generating inventory. They are likely to retrogress in near future. They are also likely to consume their quota this year (no data as yet on how much the inventory is - so this is pure guesswork right now). However, given that they seem to be having trouble getting inventory, many folks have the opinion that EB3I might receive horizontal spillover in a couple years.

BTW - EB3P has 1500 just until its PD. It surely has thousands and thousands more waiting in the wings hoping for its PD to expand. EB3P is not becoming C anytime soon.

This question may not be related to current thread, but let me mention it over here.

I was comparing demand data and Oct inventory. I'm not sure but somewhere I felt that chances of moving priority dates further in case of EB3 could be more as -
1. They are porting it to EB2.
2. China and other countries are current, except Philippines, that too has around 1500 something application before Jan 2013. If that's the case then EB3 can expect horizontal spill over from EB3 category itself, boosting to move their priority date further.

[imdeng]

I wouldn't be this pessimistic. I am not going to put a number on the odds - but there is a low but reasonable shot that PD moves to go beyond the date asked (07/17/2009). We have been off on both sides in the past - too many moving pieces and too much opaque data. Hang in there Jimmy - keep your paperwork ready - and move fast if the dates indeed reach you.

0.0001% - maybe even less.

[Jagan01]

Any idea Jagan when EB2I - PD 2/2/2009 will be current? I'm new to this forum and any insight will be appreciated.

may be aug-sep 2014

[Kanmani]

May not be the right three to post in.
Q, Kanmani and other gurus need your help.
I am looking to move to a new employer on EAD. The job offered would likely be "Software QA Engineer" and GC was filed for "Software Engineer". Need your thoughts on AC21. Would it be okay to accept the position of Software QA Engineer and if so to what extent do the duties need to match for AC21 approval. BTW My AC21 has been pending for more than 180 days. I am looking to some insights on how to approach this situation and need to give an answer ASAP.

Job duties described in the perm should be same or similar in the new employment, which doesn't mean it must match word by word. Job title needn't be the same.

Just for an example, an cardiologist described in the perm cannot take-up a neurologist job with the second employer.

I request Q to give you a better example.

[qesehmk]

Wiz - In your particular case I think SE vs QA-SE doesn't sound much difference to me. I am not a lawyer but this job switch seems ok to me.

If you need a good peace of mind then just ask a lawyer online somewhere. Should be able to get an answer for 50 bucks or so.


Job duties described in the perm should be same or similar in the new employment, which doesn't mean it must match word by word. Job title needn't be the same.

Just for an example, an cardiologist described in the perm cannot take-up a neurologist job with the second employer.

I request Q to give you a better example.

[venki080]

Hi Wiz,
It should not be a problem MY perm was filed with QA engineer profile but I moved to a more SR Proj/Program Manager role. TO be frank USCIS does not care as long as u remain in IT . Plus one thing to all friends out here AC21 is not mandatory;when u change jobs u already invoked AC21 so I dont think it is wise to send AC21 change notification to USCIS, only if u feel ur underlying I140 should be revoked (past 180 days is no issues) only then send notification to USCIS.Best is to keep mum. This is from personal experience.

Hello to old friends Q,Kanmani,MAtt JJ

[Wizoz2]

Hi Wiz,
It should not be a problem MY perm was filed with QA engineer profile but I moved to a more SR Proj/Program Manager role. TO be frank USCIS does not care as long as u remain in IT . Plus one thing to all friends out here AC21 is not mandatory;when u change jobs u already invoked AC21 so I dont think it is wise to send AC21 change notification to USCIS, only if u feel ur underlying I140 should be revoked (past 180 days is no issues) only then send notification to USCIS.Best is to keep mum. This is from personal experience.

Hello to old friends Q,Kanmani,MAtt JJ

Thanks I have had my EAD for close to 2 years now. And my 140 was approved in 2011. My 485 has been pending for close to 2 years and I have had my EAD 2 years now. My question was specifically in regards to job duties and title.

[sahithi]

Hi gurus, when can I expect EAD with 04/13/2009 PD under EB2 category?

[helpful_leo]

Guys,

Thanks for the very useful thread that you have going on here!

Our PD is mid-Dec 2008, EB2I, which according to info here could become current this summer. We had filed I-485 last time we became current end of 2011, at which time we got our EAD and AP, before retrogressing again. Our status on the uscis website since that time till now is initial review. Few Qs:
1/ Don't they do something like pre-adjudication for applicants whose 485 applications they have received and whose dates may likely become current in the next several months? If so, how would I know if they are pre-adjudicating my case?
2/ Is there anything else I have to do / documents to submit again when the dates get current now? - my sense is USCIS has all the documents they need when we made the initial I-485 application.
3/ Is there any possibility that we may again miss the GC even if we become current this time- if we are current for only a month or so (absent other issues with documents or RFEs, etc)?

Thanks for reading and your time!

[Jagan01]

Hi gurus, when can I expect EAD with 04/13/2009 PD under EB2 category?

55% chance that you get it this year... If not this year then you should get it next year...

[eb22010]

Hi Gurus,

Can someone predict when I will get my EAD and GC realistically? My EB2I PD is 02/26/2010. I have not filed my I485 yet when there was an opportunity last time.

[sahithi]

55% chance that you get it this year... If not this year then you should get it next year...


Thank You Jagan.

[JackD1]

Hi all,

Just wanted to give you an update frm my side. I received an RFE for both my wife's and my case.
PD - 08/04/2008
AC21 filed in July 2013

I changed my job again in Dec 2013 so will be sending another AC21 with the rfe response.

My rfe is for employment verification and for my wife they asked for marriage bona fides.

For marriage docs, i am planning to send the following docs -

1) copy of lease
2) 2012 and 2013 tax returns
3) car insurance
4) renters insurance
5) bank statement
6) marriage certificate
7) health insurance card

Is there something else i need to keep in mind before responding to this RFE ?

Thanks

[qesehmk]

Jack - AC21 doesn't require you to file any notification with USCIS. So if i were you I would tell them AC21 unless asked.

As per marriage docs - again .. it all depends what they have asked for. What you intend to send seems like an overkill. If all they want to know if it's a real marriage then marriage certificate and proof of cohabitation (i.e. liviing together) for last x number of years should be sufficient. Filing tax together or having joint bank accounts is not a requirement at all.



Hi all,

Just wanted to give you an update frm my side. I received an RFE for both my wife's and my case.
PD - 08/04/2008
AC21 filed in July 2013

I changed my job again in Dec 2013 so will be sending another AC21 with the rfe response.

My rfe is for employment verification and for my wife they asked for marriage bona fides.

For marriage docs, i am planning to send the following docs as all these docs have my wife's name also-

1) copy of lease
2) 2012 and 2013 tax returns
3) car insurance
4) renters insurance
5) bank statement
6) marriage certificate
7) health insurance card

Is there something else i need to keep in mind before responding to this RFE ?

Thanks

[JackD1]

Jack - AC21 doesn't require you to file any notification with USCIS. So if i were you I would tell them AC21 unless asked.

As per marriage docs - again .. it all depends what they have asked for. What you intend to send seems like an overkill. If all they want to know if it's a real marriage then marriage certificate and proof of cohabitation (i.e. liviing together) for last x number of years should be sufficient. Filing tax together or having joint bank accounts is not a requirement at all.

Thanks for replying Q.

My lawyer keeps insisting that we need to file AC21 also. Might me because they want to make more money in fees, but i am going to follow her advice since i am working on EAD and dont have an H1. Don't wantto take any kind of risk.

Once i respond to RFE (by end of this month) and assuming my date becomes current in July, how long do you think it takes to get the actual green card?

I will be moving to a diff city in May,Jun and will have to file a change of address that time, hope that wouldn't trigger another rfe.

[vizcard]

Hi all,

Just wanted to give you an update frm my side. I received an RFE for both my wife's and my case.
PD - 08/04/2008
AC21 filed in July 2013

I changed my job again in Dec 2013 so will be sending another AC21 with the rfe response.

My rfe is for employment verification and for my wife they asked for marriage bona fides.

For marriage docs, i am planning to send the following docs -

1) copy of lease
2) 2012 and 2013 tax returns
3) car insurance
4) renters insurance
5) bank statement
6) marriage certificate
7) health insurance card

Is there something else i need to keep in mind before responding to this RFE ?

Thanks


Jack - AC21 doesn't require you to file any notification with USCIS. So if i were you I would tell them AC21 unless asked.

As per marriage docs - again .. it all depends what they have asked for. What you intend to send seems like an overkill. If all they want to know if it's a real marriage then marriage certificate and proof of cohabitation (i.e. liviing together) for last x number of years should be sufficient. Filing tax together or having joint bank accounts is not a requirement at all.

Jack
Its interesting (and very promising) that you got a RFE. I agree with Q - all those docs are overkill. Marriage certificate and a lease / home title should be sufficient. I don't if your passport includes it but the backcover of my passport includes my wife's name..so that's another option. Just ask your lawyer. I'm sure he/she has a recommendation.

As for timing, once approved it takes 30-45 days to get the physical card (probably less). If you are moving in May/ June, it really doesn't matter since you would be at your new address before getting current. Just make sure you file the AR11 as soon as you move.

Good luck! I'm hoping to be right behind you in the approval queue.

[JackD1]

Jack
Its interesting (and very promising) that you got a RFE. I agree with Q - all those docs are overkill. Marriage certificate and a lease / home title should be sufficient. I don't if your passport includes it but the backcover of my passport includes my wife's name..so that's another option. Just ask your lawyer. I'm sure he/she has a recommendation.

As for timing, once approved it takes 30-45 days to get the physical card (probably less). If you are moving in May/ June, it really doesn't matter since you would be at your new address before getting current. Just make sure you file the AR11 as soon as you move.

Good luck! I'm hoping to be right behind you in the approval queue.

Thanks Viz, i am going to talk to my lawyer and see if i don't need to send that many docs.

Yes, i plan to file AR11 as soon as i get keys to my home. BTW, is that something that can be done online or i need to call uscis... haven't researched much yet.

And for the GC, amen brother.. hopefully this will be the year that will end years of misery for both of us as well as others ...

[qesehmk]

Getting GC is dependent on country and category. Not sure what yours is ... but the time to get GC after filing 485 can be as little as 3-4 months if you are not EB2IC or EB3I.


Thanks for replying Q.

My lawyer keeps insisting that we need to file AC21 also. Might me because they want to make more money in fees, but i am going to follow her advice since i am working on EAD and dont have an H1. Don't wantto take any kind of risk.

Once i respond to RFE (by end of this month) and assuming my date becomes current in July, how long do you think it takes to get the actual green card?

I will be moving to a diff city in May,Jun and will have to file a change of address that time, hope that wouldn't trigger another rfe.

[JackD1]

Thanks for the info .. mine is EB2I

[vizcard]

Thanks Viz, i am going to talk to my lawyer and see if i don't need to send that many docs.

Yes, i plan to file AR11 as soon as i get keys to my home. BTW, is that something that can be done online or i need to call uscis... haven't researched much yet.

And for the GC, amen brother.. hopefully this will be the year that will end years of misery for both of us as well as others ...

it can be done online.
https://egov.uscis.gov/coa/displayCOAForm.do

[helpful_leo]

Jack :

Pardon if this is a naive question - but how come they are processing your case if it your date is not current yet? Is this part of pre-adjudication?

My PD is 12/17/08, and there has been absolutely no change from "initial review" status, which is how it has been since when we filed I-485 in January 2012 till now.

Thanks, and good luck!


Thanks for the info .. mine is EB2I

[jimmys]

My PD is 07/17/2009 and I haven't filed my 485 yet. Is there a chance, however slim it may be, to file my 485 this year?

Thank you Jagan01,Kanmani,Imdeng,sportsfan33 and vizcard.

[jimmys]

Edit: Let me add though that I don't see July 2009 becoming current, sorry! There is an additional 7K demand up to June 2009. So you are looking at 10.5K up to 2009, an additional 7K in 2009 PLUS an additional 3-6K of porters. That equals about 20-23K spillover, which has to be historic. Of course, the date can push further than the available numbers in order to minimize wastage, but July seems too much on the wrong side of the border.

I never thought, even in my wildest dreams ,I will get GC by this summer/fall. I just want to file my 485 as I missed last time. Thanks!!

[triplet]

The fact that they are pre-adjudicating latter half of 2008 is good news indeed, my PD is 17 Oct 08 and I'm hoping this'll be the year for 08 filers. Long way to go though, the date has to get current and they have to actually approve the file. We've got to make it through in those 4 months, start praying!

Helpful-leo: the status has proven to be a rather flaky indicator of what's actually happening behind the scenes at USCIS.

[triplet]

I've been curious about the Jan inventory, no sign of it and it is almost Feb.

[JackD1]

Jack :

Pardon if this is a naive question - but how come they are processing your case if it your date is not current yet? Is this part of pre-adjudication?

My PD is 12/17/08, and there has been absolutely no change from "initial review" status, which is how it has been since when we filed I-485 in January 2012 till now.

Thanks, and good luck!

That is what i am guessing. I sent 485 in April 2012 and there was no movement till sept/oct of last year (Was in Acceptance state). Then it moved to initial review. On feb10th, i got the case status update of RFE sent.

[helpful_leo]

Thanks triplet. Is there a better way of knowing if the file has been touched at all? If I remember correctly, we were current for just 1 month in Jan 2012.

Also, am I right to gather from your post that if things get current this summer, it would typically last for 4 months?



The fact that they are pre-adjudicating latter half of 2008 is good news indeed, my PD is 17 Oct 08 and I'm hoping this'll be the year for 08 filers. Long way to go though, the date has to get current and they have to actually approve the file. We've got to make it through in those 4 months, start praying!

Helpful-leo: the status has proven to be a rather flaky indicator of what's actually happening behind the scenes at USCIS.

[triplet]

I am no expert, just basing it off of last year and I think this year will be the same. Maybe an initial movement to June 08 and then move to Dec 08 or into 09. How long it lasts depends on the spillover from other categories. You can call your service center and ask to speak to an L2 officer, ask the L2 officer if your case has been pre-adjudicated. The number for the service center should be on the 485 receipt notice. Good luck! Hope we make it through this year!


Thanks triplet. Is there a better way of knowing if the file has been touched at all? If I remember correctly, we were current for just 1 month in Jan 2012.

Also, am I right to gather from your post that if things get current this summer, it would typically last for 4 months?

[JackD1]

I got the copy of rfe from my lawyer today. Here is what is mentioned in the rfe for my wife. Seems like they pretty much want all the documentation one can provide --

Please submit documentary evidence to demonstrate that your marriage is a bona fide. Such evidence may include, but is not limited to: Birth certificates for common children;proof of joint residence or ownership of property, joint tax returns, joint financial accounts, spousal insurance coverage, medical, school or religious records; or other
proof of marital status. Secondary evidence will be evaluated for authenticity and credibility and should cover all peroids from the time your marriage took place until present.

[vizcard]

I got the copy of rfe from my lawyer today. Here is what is mentioned in the rfe for my wife. Seems like they pretty much want all the documentation one can provide --

Please submit documentary evidence to demonstrate that your marriage is a bona fide. Such evidence may include, but is not limited to: Birth certificates for common children;proof of joint residence or ownership of property, joint tax returns, joint financial accounts, spousal insurance coverage, medical, school or religious records; or other
proof of marital status. Secondary evidence will be evaluated for authenticity and credibility and should cover all peroids from the time your marriage took place until present.

Those are all examples. My suggestion is to only submit docs that are slam dunks i.e. there is no possibility of any follow up questions.

Technicality and just FYI (don't worry about it) - from my perspective none of those docs are slam dunks for a bona fide marriage FOR IMMIGRATION. In all those examples, I believe non-spouse domestic partners and same sex partners are legal but I don't think the same applies for green cards.

[vizcard]

Thanks triplet. Is there a better way of knowing if the file has been touched at all? If I remember correctly, we were current for just 1 month in Jan 2012.

Also, am I right to gather from your post that if things get current this summer, it would typically last for 4 months?


I am no expert, just basing it off of last year and I think this year will be the same. Maybe an initial movement to June 08 and then move to Dec 08 or into 09. How long it lasts depends on the spillover from other categories. You can call your service center and ask to speak to an L2 officer, ask the L2 officer if your case has been pre-adjudicated. The number for the service center should be on the 485 receipt notice. Good luck! Hope we make it through this year!

Leo,

There is no set timeframe for how dates will stay current. But I think triplet's guess is pretty good.

Also trying to figure out whether or not your file is touched is a pointless exercise. There is nothing you can do if it's not touched and it will unnecessarily cause stress. Wait till around June/ July timeframe before you contact the service center. I have an Aug 2008 PD so I am anxious as well so I can totally understand where you are coming from.

[JackD1]

Those are all examples. My suggestion is to only submit docs that are slam dunks i.e. there is no possibility of any follow up questions.

Technicality and just FYI (don't worry about it) - from my perspective none of those docs are slam dunks for a bona fide marriage FOR IMMIGRATION. In all those examples, I believe non-spouse domestic partners and same sex partners are legal but I don't think the same applies for green cards.

Hmmm.. If you think none of these are slam dunks, which one do u think are. Other than these, all i have is marriage certificate. Our passport doesn't have each other's names so i cant send that.

[vizcard]

Hmmm.. If you think none of these are slam dunks, which one do u think are. Other than these, all i have is marriage certificate. Our passport doesn't have each other's names so i cant send that.

Like I said, don't worry about my personal opinion. Stick with the options they have listed and ask your lawyer for his/her opinion.

[triplet]

I agree with vizcard, relax and chill till July knowing that you will be closer than ever to receiving the card come August.


Leo,

There is no set timeframe for how dates will stay current. But I think triplet's guess is pretty good.

Also trying to figure out whether or not your file is touched is a pointless exercise. There is nothing you can do if it's not touched and it will unnecessarily cause stress. Wait till around June/ July timeframe before you contact the service center. I have an Aug 2008 PD so I am anxious as well so I can totally understand where you are coming from.

[helpful_leo]

Thanks viz and triplet.

Came here a few months after the dawn of the new millennium - hoping I will get my GC on the 14th year!
Good luck to both of you..

[vizcard]

Questions for the married folks on this forum ( I will delete after getting some answers)

1)Has anyone used a foreign marriage certificate to do a name change for the mrs.?
2)If so, is there something specific that needs to be done (e.g., getting it certified in the US, etc) ?
3)What, if any, were the implications on your immigration process?

(Before anyone asks, NO .. I didn't just get married :) )

[SONU77]

Questions for the married folks on this forum ( I will delete after getting some answers)

1)Has anyone used a foreign marriage certificate to do a name change for the mrs.?
2)If so, is there something specific that needs to be done (e.g., getting it certified in the US, etc) ?
3)What, if any, were the implications on your immigration process?

(Before anyone asks, NO .. I didn't just get married :) )

My wife came to US on H-4 visa using her passport details before marriage. Then, we first got the surname change in Indian passport using the foreign marriage certificate and an affidavit for name change (template available on the Indian Consulate Web page) before we submitted our first request to USCIS for her H-4 extension . After surname change in the Passport; we used the new surname in the subsequent applications to USCIS.

She has changed her status from H4-->F1 (including visa stamping)-->OPT-->H1B (current status). She also holds an EAD/AP card.

I don't think we got our marriage certificate certified for submission with the Passport application.

If someone gets married after having couple of status changes in US (i.e. some history with USCIS); she may consult an attorney to see if there are any considerations about the timing of the name change in the middle of the green card process.

Hope it helps!

[seattlet]

Guru's I have a question reg one of my friend's current situation

He was on H1 B with a consulting firm, filed 485 in 2007 and then resigned and left for india in 2008. He had ead / ap but had not renewed it before he left. His green card got approved in 2011 but he was outside the country. He is now trying to get back to US through some IT employers.

I have couple of questions

a) Since the 485 application was approved but he did not use the green card, will he be able use the old I40(which was used to file 485) to port the priority date to new Labor, use it for H1 B extension past 6 years ?

b) He was told my an attorney that if he comes back to US thru H1 or L1 (dual intent visas) at port of entry they might decide to either cancel his green card (asking him to renounce it on the spot) and give him H1 b status or just give him h1 status without bothering about his green card
if they dont bother, he can just change the address of the green card after clearing POE and he should be all set with his green card.

The attorney also mentioned that if he ever comes back to the country on B1 or F1 visas he will definitely be asked to forego the green card at POE.


any thoughts please

[vizcard]

a) Since the 485 application was approved but he did not use the green card, will he be able use the old I40(which was used to file 485) to port the priority date to new Labor, use it for H1 B extension past 6 years ?


He should be eligible for a brand new H1B since he has been out of the country for 1 year.



b) He was told my an attorney that if he comes back to US thru H1 or L1 (dual intent visas) at port of entry they might decide to either cancel his green card (asking him to renounce it on the spot) and give him H1 b status or just give him h1 status without bothering about his green card
if they dont bother, he can just change the address of the green card after clearing POE and he should be all set with his green card.

The attorney also mentioned that if he ever comes back to the country on B1 or F1 visas he will definitely be asked to forego the green card at POE.



any thoughts please

I'm pretty sure his GC will be cancelled regardless of what status he comes in with. He has not met any residency requirements and probably does not have a re-entry permit to support his absence. See http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/after-green-card-granted/maintaining-permanent-residence

As for retaining his PD, I believe he should be able to assuming he has all the prior documentation.

[seattlet]

Viz,
thanks for the response. Reg eligible for brand new H1 will he be counted under yearly quota ?



He should be eligible for a brand new H1B since he has been out of the country for 1 year.



I'm pretty sure his GC will be cancelled regardless of what status he comes in with. He has not met any residency requirements and probably does not have a re-entry permit to support his absence. See http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/after-green-card-granted/maintaining-permanent-residence

As for retaining his PD, I believe he should be able to assuming he has all the prior documentation.

[vizcard]

Viz,
thanks for the response. Reg eligible for brand new H1 will he be counted under yearly quota ?

Yes...since it won't be an extension.

[QuestforGC]

Hello to all experts and users of this forum,
I have been following this forum for a while and with total confidence i can say this is the best immigration forum i have come across in 5 years. Thanks to the moderators and contributors, such a wonderful forum.

I have a situation and would like to get a expert suggestion from experts like Q, Kanmani, Sportsfan, Nishant, vizcard.
Mods, please move this to appropriate thread if doesn't belong here.

Me and my wife are on H1B since 2006 and we have filed her PERM (EB3) in 2007 with company A. Perm was approved and then we have filed I-140 (PD of 2007). During the I-140 process the ICE officers came to our house and asked some questions about the employer and paystubs etc. Then they told us they are investigating some fraud charges filed on the company. We got scared and afraid about the company future and moved to company B while I-140 is in the process. As of now the I-140 application status shows Initial Review and we heard that company is no more operating.

She applied for PERM & I-140 from Company B in 2010 and both are approved and now she has PD of Dec-2010. She did not mention the previous PERM/I-140 info in the later application.
So, my question to all the experts is, can she use the 2007(EB3) PD by porting even though her I-140 is still in "Initial Review" status and not rejected yet.
Please let me know if I'm not making sense here.

I would really really appreciate the experts input.

[surya1975]

Seattlet,

After reading your post, I have second thoughts too. But I have seen a real time experience with one of our friend who had perm denied and spent almost 2 years outside usa to get into new cap .

Let me see what Viz, Q and other gurus have in their mind. I'll try to resolve this tomorrow.


I am sure it is just one year because one of my cousin came back after 1 year wait in India.

[Jagan01]

Hello to all experts and users of this forum,
I have been following this forum for a while and with total confidence i can say this is the best immigration forum i have come across in 5 years. Thanks to the moderators and contributors, such a wonderful forum.

I have a situation and would like to get a expert suggestion from experts like Q, Kanmani, Sportsfan, Nishant, vizcard.
Mods, please move this to appropriate thread if doesn't belong here.

Me and my wife are on H1B since 2006 and we have filed her PERM (EB3) in 2007 with company A. Perm was approved and then we have filed I-140 (PD of 2007). During the I-140 process the ICE officers came to our house and asked some questions about the employer and paystubs etc. Then they told us they are investigating some fraud charges filed on the company. We got scared and afraid about the company future and moved to company B while I-140 is in the process. As of now the I-140 application status shows Initial Review and we heard that company is no more operating.

She applied for PERM & I-140 from Company B in 2010 and both are approved and now she has PD of Dec-2010. She did not mention the previous PERM/I-140 info in the later application.
So, my question to all the experts is, can she use the 2007(EB3) PD by porting even though her I-140 is still in "Initial Review" status and not rejected yet.

I would really really appreciate the experts input.

When an employee ports the PD from old approved I-140 then you need to send a copy of the earlier approved I-140. If you do not have the copy of earlier approved I-140 then you need to provide the receipt number. According to my understanding, PD can only be proted from earlier approved I-140.

[QuestforGC]

Thanks for the clarification and quick reply "sportsfan33" and "Jagan01" , you guys are awesome.

[surya1975]

Hi all gurus,

Please see below link. The ymentioned EB2 ROW demand is too low like 300 per month. Is that true???

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 300 per month. This is good news for EB2 India and China, as they could get a higher spillover in FY 2014.


http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/02/march-2014-visa-bulletin-analysis.html

[qesehmk]

surya whoever wrote that probably wrote it in a hurry and didn't mean it. EB2ROW annual demand has always been between 16K-32K. at 300 per month that's 3600 per year which sounds right for EB2C but not for EB2ROW.


Hi all gurus,

Please see below link. The ymentioned EB2 ROW demand is too low like 300 per month. Is that true???

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Demand in EB2ROW continues to be very low at an average of around 300 per month. This is good news for EB2 India and China, as they could get a higher spillover in FY 2014.


http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/02/march-2014-visa-bulletin-analysis.html

[nishant2200]

Just a quick hello to all my old friends. I can see lots of bright people have taken up leadership of this forum over past few months. Some old timers still around! Life is definitely more peaceful. I recently got a new addition to family.... no, it's not what you thought, its a dog..

I am thinking of moving to Texas or something like that in next year, bit tired of living in small house in California.

By no means intended to hijack any topic on this thread, but felt compelled to just say hello to this forum, which I held so dear to my heart, and I still do.

[surya1975]

surya whoever wrote that probably wrote it in a hurry and didn't mean it. EB2ROW annual demand has always been between 16K-32K. at 300 per month that's 3600 per year which sounds right for EB2C but not for EB2ROW.

Thanks for clarification Q.

[vizcard]

Just a quick hello to all my old friends. I can see lots of bright people have taken up leadership of this forum over past few months. Some old timers still around! Life is definitely more peaceful. I recently got a new addition to family.... no, it's not what you thought, its a dog..

I am thinking of moving to Texas or something like that in next year, bit tired of living in small house in California.

By no means intended to hijack any topic on this thread, but felt compelled to just say hello to this forum, which I held so dear to my heart, and I still do.

welcome back. long time no see. you are complaining about a small house in california. my wife is tired of a small condo in new york. its all relative buddy. of course in texas, you could buy a small town with what you'll get for your house in cali.

[PD2008AUG25]

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf

[vyruss]

Can someone explain briefly the difference between inventory data and the demand data? Which data more accurately depicts the number of people ahead of you. Thanks.

[qesehmk]

Can someone explain briefly the difference between inventory data and the demand data? Which data more accurately depicts the number of people ahead of you. Thanks.
inventory data is better but still not complete since there are PERM and 140 folks who don't figure in inventory data either. demand data doesn't include cases that are not quite ready for a visa.

[fedupwithgc]

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf

My PD is 07/07/2008 and it looks like there are less than 4K people ahead of me in EB2I.

Even if EB1 and FB has a spillover of at least 5K, I'm hoping to get in this FY.

What do you guys think ? Please advise...

[redwood]

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf

The most surprising part is EB3ROW. With such a low inventory, EB3ROW might become current this year and provide good spillover to EB3I.

[gc4a_k]

any chance of eb2I getting a spillover of >16K this year.

[TeddyKoochu]

The most surprising part is EB3ROW. With such a low inventory, EB3ROW might become current this year and provide good spillover to EB3I.

That’s a great point EB3 ROW inventory is definitely very low. Probably at some point they should make it current to create inventory. EB3 India should move nicely with spillover if not this year then surely next year. This would reduce porting to EB2.

[YTeleven]

any chance of eb2I getting a spillover of >16K this year.

It is possible based on prior years stats.
Please see the attachment: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=509&d=1389825372

[satwgl]

My PD is 09-OCT-2008. Is there a possibility of my PD becoming current? Thanks in advance and appreciate your responses.

[rka_72]

Inventory data released

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf

[justvisiting]

Inventory data released

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf

Well this certainly explains the forward movement on EB-3. But we have been burned by this data before. It takes USCIS a while to compile trustworthy numbers.

[redwood]

That’s a great point EB3 ROW inventory is definitely very low. Probably at some point they should make it current to create inventory. EB3 India should move nicely with spillover if not this year then surely next year. This would reduce porting to EB2.

Haven't done any in-depth analysis. But humor me here, can the fate of EB2China befall on EB2India ?

If everything remains same and this EB3ROW inventory data is true and is a good indicator of future years.

From next year -
EB3I could receive 25-30K in spillovers every year and post 2007 the demand is 10-15K per year
EB2I could receive 10-15K in spillovers every year and post 2010 the demand is 25-30K per year

[amulchandra]

Looking at eb3 row inventory, what you gurus here think.
Will eb3 india see some light this year?
thanks
Amul

[drop2ocean]

Hi, I currently have a PD EB2I - June 2010.

what are the key things to look for in case of a change in employer and restarting the whole process, to keep this PD.

Does the new process needs to consider previous job advertisements, years of experience stated in previous filing etc ?

Appreciate your response.

[Kanmani]

Teddy, is it you on Eb2-Eb3 thread in trackitt?

[gcpursuit]

Gurus,

With the latest inventory data, is there any change in the predictions?

[tatikonda]

Gurus,

Quick Question !! one of my friend got GC approved today his PD Date is 2006, (he is in EB2-I). I was wondering his visa number is from FY 2013 Quota or FY-2014 Quota. I guess it will be from previous year quota. please advise.

[YTeleven]

Gurus,

Quick Question !! one of my friend got GC approved today his PD Date is 2006, (he is in EB2-I). I was wondering his visa number is from FY 2013 Quota or FY-2014 Quota. I guess it will be from previous year quota. please advise.

I suspect it could be from FY2014. It depends on when is he applied his I-485 or porting request.
There was already 7k visas allocated to the EB2 & EB3 India together from FY2014 quota.
Please look at this attachment: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=510&d=1392156577

[tatikonda]

I suspect it could be from FY2014. It depends on when is he applied his I-485 or porting request.
There was already 7k visas allocated to the EB2 & EB3 India together from FY2014 quota.
Please look at this attachment: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=510&d=1392156577

I read some where (maybe in this forum) that visa number gets allocated when they issue a RFE on 485.
So if a RFE was issued earlier than Oct 1st 2013. it should be from FY2013 Quota ? Correct ??
I am not sure about when RFE was issued, I will find it out and update forum.
btw he is porting from EB3-Eb2.

[vizcard]

I read some where (maybe in this forum) that visa number gets allocated when they issue a RFE on 485.
So if a RFE was issued earlier than Oct 1st 2013. it should be from FY2013 Quota ? Correct ??
I am not sure about when RFE was issued, I will find it out and update forum.
btw he is porting from EB3-Eb2.

I don't believe that's true. The USCIS does the RFE process and only when approved "requests" the DOS to assign a visa. If this was inadvertently done and the GC was given without an approved I485, there could be issues.

[YTeleven]

I read some where (maybe in this forum) that visa number gets allocated when they issue a RFE on 485.
So if a RFE was issued earlier than Oct 1st 2013. it should be from FY2013 Quota ? Correct ??
I am not sure about when RFE was issued, I will find it out and update forum.
btw he is porting from EB3-Eb2.

The above calculations was made based on the October'13 Inventory updated on 01Oct2013 and the October13DD updated on 07Oct2013. This year they have allocated these visas between 01-Oct-2013 & 07-Oct-2013 under FY2014 quota and they continued processing the cases till Nov'13 and in some cases like your freinds till now. Please see the quote mentioned in the Oct13 DD:
---------
The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation
of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in
the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.
----------

[tatikonda]

I don't believe that's true. The USCIS does the RFE process and only when approved "requests" the DOS to assign a visa. If this was inadvertently done and the GC was given without an approved I485, there could be issues.


Viz, I appreciate your response. Please forgive my ignorance.
I see few GC approvals in Jan/Feb 2014, who's PD is not current. How can they get GC if they are not current, that means USCIS might have requested their VISA prior to their approval ?

[vizcard]

Viz, I appreciate your response. Please forgive my ignorance.
I see few GC approvals in Jan/Feb 2014, who's PD is not current. How can they get GC if they are not current, that means USCIS might have requested their VISA prior to their approval ?


They could be cross-chargeability or they updated it late or DOS is making exceptions or maybe you are correct. I can't argue against evidence :)

[Jagan01]

They could be cross-chargeability or they updated it late or DOS is making exceptions or maybe you are correct. I can't argue against evidence :)

Just ran a query on Trackitt. Found 27 applicants that are EB2I and got their approval between Dec 2013 and Feb 2014. These 27 candidates have PDs starting from Jan 2005. Hence it is possible to get GC when dates are not current.
Dec 2013 - 18 approvals
Jan 2014 - 5 approvals
Feb 2014 - 4 approvals

According to me the numbers were assigned when the dates were current and then approvals came in later. I firmly believe that the annual EB2I quota (~3000) is already used up for FY2014. Below are some numbers of inventory prior to Jan 2009 and after Jan 2004.

Oct 2013 inventory --> EB2I (13375) : EB3I(29879)
Jan 2013 inventory --> EB2I (12181 ) : EB3I(27998)

Decrease in EB2I --> 1194
Porting from EB3I to EB2I --> 1881

Total consumed from EB2I --> 3075

We will see some approvals trickle in as we approach Aug 2014 but these would be very very few.

[incredible]

Gurus
Please move this question to an appropriate Thread. I have a quick question around the Lock box address for I765 and I131 forms. When I see instructions for filing I765 and I131 forms, I see the address to be sent is different (for people living in North Carolina).
The I765 need to be sent to Pheonix Lock Box facility where as I131 seems to be sent to Dallas Lockbox (that is based on the I485 receipt which starts with LIN).

Do we have to send the document to different addresses ? or Shall I send both to Pheonix address ?

[redwood]

I firmly believe that the annual EB2I quota (~3000) is already used up for FY2014..

Jagan

I have a honest question. Why would the USCIS not afford this privilege (of giving annual quota in Oct itself) to EB2C or EB3I ? Is the answer the obvious - spillover.

[Jagan01]

Jagan

I have a honest question. Why would the USCIS not afford this privilege (of giving annual quota in Oct itself) to EB2C or EB3I ? Is the answer the obvious - spillover.

1. EB2I every time will get spillover. Hence calculation errors don't matter much as EB2I will anyways get much more than 3000.
2. CO would like to be considered as a person who's prediction are correct. For example, He moved dates to June 2008
2.a - because of giving away 3k visas there are only ~3000 pending before June 2008
2.b - If he did not give away those 3k visas then there would have been ~6000 pending before June 2008

I think 2.a makes him look much better than 2.b

Remember that CO also has to ensure no wastage. Hence he needs to move dates far enough to ensure no wastage but also live up to expectations of being close enough to not have too many pending before the date he moves to.

[Jagan01]

1. EB2I every time will get spillover. Hence calculation errors don't matter much as EB2I will anyways get much more than 3000.
2. CO would like to be considered as a person who's prediction are correct. For example, He moved dates to June 2008
2.a - because of giving away 3k visas there are only ~3000 pending before June 2008
2.b - If he did not give away those 3k visas then there would have been ~6000 pending before June 2008

I think 2.a makes him look much better than 2.b

Remember that CO also has to ensure no wastage. Hence he needs to move dates far enough to ensure no wastage but also live up to expectations of being close enough to not have too many pending before the date he moves to.

I personally feel that CO has adopted a good strategy.
1. Calculate Supply available in Aug. Lets call it X.
2. Calculate the month until which there is a demand of X pending. Lets call it M.
3. Add one month and move dates to M+1. This will ensure no wastage.
4. Based on porting, he may or may not have demand left at the beginning of next FY.
- If cumulative demand left in Oct prior to M+1 is > 3000 then give out 3k annual quota.
- If cumulative demand left in Oct prior to M+1 is < 3000 (may be 2000) then everyone who was current will get visas. So consume 2k of the annual 3k.

[qesehmk]

Friends - Header updated.


Basically there are 3 things we looked at:
1. PERM Data for 2014 Q1
2. USCIS 485 Data for 2014 Q1
3. USCIS Performance Data.


#1 & #3 are confirming slowdown in not just PERMs but also in 140 and 485 processing. The question is how does it help or hurt. Clearly for people who are backlogged and have already filed 485 this is good because then that means more visas for them and better likelihood of getting through to Approval.


#2 interestingly doesn't really have much interesting information. mid year 485 data is always tricky because you don't know the flow rate of how many came in and how many approved vs denied etc .. many times applications come and get approved without ever hitting 485 inventory. That's why I generally don't like this report mid year. There is not much there that influenced my mind one way or other.


Good luck with your GC applications!

[redwood]

Friends - Header updated.


Basically there are 3 things we looked at:
1. PERM Data for 2014 Q1
2. USCIS 485 Data for 2014 Q1
3. USCIS Performance Data.


#1 & #3 are confirming slowdown in not just PERMs but also in 140 and 485 processing. The question is how does it help or hurt. Clearly for people who are backlogged and have already filed 485 this is good because then that means more visas for them and better likelihood of getting through to Approval.


#2 interestingly doesn't really have much interesting information. mid year 485 data is always tricky because you don't know the flow rate of how many came in and how many approved vs denied etc .. many times applications come and get approved without ever hitting 485 inventory. That's why I generally don't like this report mid year. There is not much there that influenced my mind one way or other.


Good luck with your GC applications!

Where does this land us at the end of FY ?

[triplet]

Where does this land us at the end of FY ?

Plausible scenario would be Feb/Mar 2009, if you're a bit more conservative, then Jan 2009. Anything beyond March is possible but the numbers say otherwise. We'll just have to wait and see.

[qesehmk]

Where does this land us at the end of FY ?
redwood - sorry. I don't do manual calculations anymore. I think I will let others opine on your question.

[venkat]

Quick question Gurus... Please move it to a different thread after 1-2 days....One of my friend whose PD is Oct 2008 is expecting to get his GC in next 5-6 months. He passed his Real Estate Sales Associate exam and wishes to start working as an Agent (he will be working on 1099 and not w2) while still working in his main job.

Is this correct and advisable especially since he has NOT got his GC yet? Anyone have experiences/knowledge in this area?

[Pundit Arjun]

Quick question Gurus... Please move it to a different thread after 1-2 days....One of my friend whose PD is Oct 2008 is expecting to get his GC in next 5-6 months. He passed his Real Estate Sales Associate exam and wishes to start working as an Agent (he will be working on 1099 and not w2) while still working in his main job.

Is this correct and advisable especially since he has NOT got his GC yet? Anyone have experiences/knowledge in this area?

Venkat,

As long as your friend has EAD, he can start to work as an agent and work on 1099 while being on his main job.

[Jagan01]

Apr bulletin released without change

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-april-2014.html

[qesehmk]

Thanks Jagan.

It's very interesting that EB2C as well as EB3ROWMP are moving exactly 1 month per month. CO has truly mastered the art of demand/supply management for visas!

As far as EB2 is concerned the dates will eventually move in Q4 of 2014 i.e. Jul-Sep 2014. So there is nothing other than wait and watch that EB2I can do at this point of time.

Have a great spring break ahead. (At least on the west coast it is next week). Not sure about east coast.

Apr bulletin released without change

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-april-2014.html

[geterdone]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/03/11/immigration-visa-denials-increase/6301869/

http://www.nfap.com/pdf/NFAP%20Policy%20Brief%20L-1%20Denial%20Rates%20Continue%20March%202014.pdf

[Immigo]

Just revisited the I-485 inventory from January (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf). The EB1 India inventory for October and November, 2013 shows 930 and 1036. If this (scary) trend continues, I will be very pessimistic about spillovers to EB2 India in the future.

[axecapone]

Just revisited the I-485 inventory from January (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2014-Jan.pdf). The EB1 India inventory for October and November, 2013 shows 930 and 1036. If this (scary) trend continues, I will be very pessimistic about spillovers to EB2 India in the future.

About EB1 India, does anyone know what the reason is for a whopping 14-15 fold increase from 2012 to 2013 in the number of EB1 cases?

[Kanmani]

About EB1 India, does anyone know what the reason is for a whopping 14-15 fold increase from 2012 to 2013 in the number of EB1 cases?

Are you familiar with the Kazarian case ? That case made the EB1 researchers to prove 2 step evaluation of their papers. Attorneys and applicants were not familiar with the new process . The K- ruling made a lot of denials in 2011 . It picked up in 2013.

[qesehmk]

Can you please site the actual numbers where you see 14-15 fold increase. I don't see it.
About EB1 India, does anyone know what the reason is for a whopping 14-15 fold increase from 2012 to 2013 in the number of EB1 cases?

[axecapone]

Can you please site the actual numbers where you see 14-15 fold increase. I don't see it.

May be I phrased it incorrectly. Basically I was looking at the 485 inventory data. 2012 has a total of 314 for under 1st preference while 2013 has 4492. I was trying to understand this difference

[Immigo]

Are you familiar with the Kazarian case ? That case made the EB1 researchers to prove 2 step evaluation of their papers. Attorneys and applicants were not familiar with the new process . The K- ruling made a lot of denials in 2011 . It picked up in 2013.

Kazarian was for EB1-A/B. The numbers in EB1 India inventory for October and November, 2013 (showing about 1k per month) would likely be due to EB1C. I really hope USCIS takes notice and increases the scrutiny for EB1C (similar to the L1 rejections that are now happening).

[qesehmk]

May be I phrased it incorrectly. Basically I was looking at the 485 inventory data. 2012 has a total of 314 for under 1st preference while 2013 has 4492. I was trying to understand this difference
I got it now. Thank you.

So there are two things here. The difference you see in the current inventory is simply because of the fact of FIFO (first in first out) processing of current categories. Current categories always will have significant backlog for current year and almost none for prior year. EB1 as a whole is current and so it exhibits the same behavior.

But the second thing to consider is - whether EB1 had different levels of overall demand for 2012 vs 2013? Or at least for EB1-India was there such a thing. I didn't go into those details if indeed there was a difference in overall demand. But just to make sure you understand Kanmani's answer above - she answered the second thing that I mentioned here.

[Jagan01]

I got it now. Thank you.

So there are two things here. The difference you see in the current inventory is simply because of the fact of FIFO (first in first out) processing of current categories. Current categories always will have significant backlog for current year and almost none for prior year. EB1 as a whole is current and so it exhibits the same behavior.

But the second thing to consider is - whether EB1 had different levels of overall demand for 2012 vs 2013? Or at least for EB1-India was there such a thing. I didn't go into those details if indeed there was a difference in overall demand. But just to make sure you understand Kanmani's answer above - she answered the second thing that I mentioned here.

It is important to note that you are seeing an increase in the "Pending" inventory. It is not necessary that the demand is increasing. If the USCIS is not approving petitions then the queue will build up and hence the "Pending" number will increase.

Can someone please tell me when exactly does a petition start showing up as pending in inventory for EB1 candidates ?
1. EB1 candidates usually file I-140 and I-485 together.
2. DO these candidates start reflecting in the pending inventory as soon as they file applications for I-140 and I-485 ?
OR
3. Do these candidates start reflecting in the pending inventory once their I-140 is approved?

[Kanmani]

It is important to note that you are seeing an increase in the "Pending" inventory. It is not necessary that the demand is increasing. If the USCIS is not approving petitions then the queue will build up and hence the "Pending" number will increase.

Can someone please tell me when exactly does a petition start showing up as pending in inventory for EB1 candidates ?
1. EB1 candidates usually file I-140 and I-485 together.
2. DO these candidates start reflecting in the pending inventory as soon as they file applications for I-140 and I-485 ?
OR
3. Do these candidates start reflecting in the pending inventory once their I-140 is approved?

"In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory. This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times. However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report."

Page 5 of http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Ombudsman%20Liaison/Responses%20to%20Annual%20Reports/cisomb-2010-annual-report-response.pdf

Thanks Spectator!

[Jagan01]

"In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory. This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times. However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report."

Page 5 of http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Ombudsman%20Liaison/Responses%20to%20Annual%20Reports/cisomb-2010-annual-report-response.pdf

Thanks Spectator!
Thanks Kanmani,

This makes it clear that the increase in pending EB1C is not bcos of processing delays. Applicants would show up in pending inventory only after I-140 gets approved. Can there be delays after I-140 approval which might be causing delays in giving out GC and hence the pending inventory increase ?

[gcpursuit]

Thanks Kanmani,

This makes it clear that the increase in pending EB1C is not bcos of processing delays. Applicants would show up in pending inventory only after I-140 gets approved. Can there be delays after I-140 approval which might be causing delays in giving out GC and hence the pending inventory increase ?

If this is the case, how are there 1036 and 260 applications in November and December 2013 in the latest inventory (EB1 India )? Eb1C does not allow premium processing and I am assuming I-140 adjudication takes more than two months. It doesn't make sense since they are listed by PD. Missing something here?

I dont know if this is the correct way to look at it. The way I read inventory is how the demand has been in prior two months before the inventory date since it is more likely to be untouched by uscis. Comparing past inventories to the recent one, it does show an increase in the filings. Correct me if I am wrong.

[Jagan01]

If this is the case, how are there 1036 and 260 applications in November and December 2013 in the latest inventory (EB1 India )? Eb1C does not allow premium processing and I am assuming I-140 adjudication takes more than two months. It doesn't make sense since they are listed by PD. Missing something here?

I dont know if this is the correct way to look at it. The way I read inventory is how the demand has been in prior two months before the inventory date since it is more likely to be untouched by uscis. Comparing past inventories to the recent one, it does show an increase in the filings. Correct me if I am wrong.
Not everyone goes for concurrent filing. Just did a trackitt query and found that from Oct 2011 till today there are 494 concurrent and 216 non-concurrent applications for EB1C India candidates.
So 1/3rd applicants are non-concurrent.

I do believe that most of Oct,Nov,Dec pending numbers that show up in Jan 2014 inventory are non-concurrent filers.

Also EB1A and EB1B can file under PP for I-140 and their I-485 will show up as pending inventory if I140 filed under PP for Nov / Dec. There might be an increase in EB1A and EB1B as well.

[gcpursuit]

Not everyone goes for concurrent filing. Just did a trackitt query and found that from Oct 2011 till today there are 494 concurrent and 216 non-concurrent applications for EB1C India candidates.
So 1/3rd applicants are non-concurrent.

I do believe that most of Oct,Nov,Dec pending numbers that show up in Jan 2014 inventory are non-concurrent filers.

Also EB1A and EB1B can file under PP for I-140 and their I-485 will show up as pending inventory if I140 filed under PP for Nov / Dec. There might be an increase in EB1A and EB1B as well.

So EB1C is completely out of the picture in those Oct - Dec numbers?? That scares me. Do you know how many Eb1 A / B India get approved in a typical year. I was assuming that Eb1C was the major chunk in EB1 India.

[vizcard]

So EB1C is completely out of the picture in those Oct - Dec numbers?? That scares me. Do you know how many Eb1 A / B India get approved in a typical year. I was assuming that Eb1C was the major chunk in EB1 India.

it usually is

[qesehmk]

Do you know how many Eb1 A / B India get approved in a typical year. I was assuming that Eb1C was the major chunk in EB1 India.
Indeed EB1C is the major chunk of EB1 India. Prior to EB1C frenzy (i.e. approx 5-6 years back) EB1-India as a whole hardly consumed 2-3K - if that. So we can safely say that EB1A/B India is less than 3K ... more likely 1.5K.

Overall EB1 India generally comes in at 9-11K per year. In a bad year they will come in at 6-7K e.g. when lots of EB1C denials are happening.

[Jagan01]

Indeed EB1C is the major chunk of EB1 India. Prior to EB1C frenzy (i.e. approx 5-6 years back) EB1-India as a whole hardly consumed 2-3K - if that. So we can safely say that EB1A/B India is less than 3K ... more likely 1.5K.

Overall EB1 India generally comes in at 9-11K per year. In a bad year they will come in at 6-7K e.g. when lots of EB1C denials are happening.
Q, viz,
Here is the puzzle.
gcpursuit pointed out that there were pending numbers in Nov and Dec 2013 in the published Jan 2014 inventory. Where do you think these numbers are coming from. Following are the possible candidates
1. EB1C non-concurrent filers
2. EB1C concurrent filers
3. EB1A EB1B

Let us just consider the month of Nov as there are approximately 1000 pending applications.

Q,
Here are the numbers from dhs website.
FY2008 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
EB1A -- 3,261 3442 4309 2131 3569
EB1B -- 4,274 3432 3990 2602 3394

FY2011 was an exception becos of Kazarian. So considering the other data points, EB1A and EB1B each have approx usage of 3.5k to 4k annually. This would translate to a combined usage of approx 7.5k per year OR 625 per month. I agree with Q that the number of applications from EB1A and EB1B India would be a fraction of this and hence might only be around 3k annually.

I am not saying that the 1k pending for Nov 2013 are all EB1a or EB1B. I would appreciate if someone can throw in some light. Per Kanmani's document, it is clear that numbers show up in I-485 pending inventory only after they are adjudicated. I-140 applications for EB1C are taking much longer these days and the numbers under Nov 2013 would mean that the I-140 was filed in Nov 2013.

After considering the above facts, I feel that the 1000 pending applications for Nov 2013 under EB1I are coming from some of the lucky EB1C that got I-140 approved within 2 months and some are coming from Eb1A and EB1B.

[gcpursuit]

Jagan,

Considering that EB1 A/B India usage is in the 2k to 3k range, the major portion of the 1k number in Nov 2013 has to be EB1C. If the numbers do not consider those I-140 with regular processing times, then the demand is going to a lot more. Are we looking at a very high rate of EB1C filings? Or are we just missing something here? I wish that 1k is the overall demand for EB1-I.
Just extrapolating the 1k figure for one year gives EB1- I demand of 12k which is high when compared to last year's inventory.

Update : I ran a query in trackitt to see if there have been any EB1C I-140 approvals in Nov and Dec 2013 for PDs Nov and Dec, the result was 0. I know trackitt data isnt accurate but I would atleast expect one or two of those lucky cases to show up.

[civilengineer]

What is the worst case scenario?
My PD is June 19, 2008 and I am yet to file for EAD. I was hoping to get a chance this year after missing by 5 days last year, and it seemed likely till the last inventory.
What is the worst case scenario number for EB-1 from India?
How many EB-1 from India should be filed for me to not get chance this year, too? 5000 above normal, 10000 above?
Does it look like dates may not cross June 2008 right now? Thanks in advance.

[qesehmk]

civilengineer - relax. As long as your case doesn't have any issues - You should get your GC this year before Sep 30. 99.99% chance if you ask me! Good luck.

Does it look like dates may not cross June 2008 right now?

[helooo]

What is the worst case scenario?
My PD is June 19, 2008 and I am yet to file for EAD. I was hoping to get a chance this year after missing by 5 days last year, and it seemed likely till the last inventory.
What is the worst case scenario number for EB-1 from India?
How many EB-1 from India should be filed for me to not get chance this year, too? 5000 above normal, 10000 above?
Does it look like dates may not cross June 2008 right now? Thanks in advance.

I am also first time filer and my PD is June 16,2008.Hope this year will bring our GC's.

[ROCK72]

Hello Gurus,

Are there any predictions for how far EB3 India dates will end up in Q4 FY2014?

Thanks!

[sreddy]

Texas service center sent RFEs last year, I think most of those RFE cases got GC last August/September. Any body remember what time was that?

May bulletin is expected in about 10 days. 60 days from that point before Q4 bulletin releases, not seeing any indication of trends. Am I missing something?

[qesehmk]

Now that 6 months have gone by in current USCIS year, trackitt data is now somewhat reliable. So we have observed some trackitt trends. Pl see header.

Basically we think that EB1-C India will consume quite a bit more compared to last year, whereas EB2ROW is on way to record low approvals (if current trend continues). This second point could be a very good news for EB2I.

Lastly we also think that EB3ROW consumption has accelerated compared to prior year by 25% and so EB3I shouldn't expect any SOFAD like prior year.

[qesehmk]

Heartfelt wishes to everybody!

https://scontent-a-lax.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc1/t1.0-9/1978681_635840169802523_508095739_n.jpg

[sam96_77]

Texas service center sent RFEs last year, I think most of those RFE cases got GC last August/September. Any body remember what time was that?

May bulletin is expected in about 10 days. 60 days from that point before Q4 bulletin releases, not seeing any indication of trends. Am I missing something?


Late June!! I think most of them came around last week of June.

[mechanical13]

Texas service center sent RFEs last year, I think most of those RFE cases got GC last August/September. Any body remember what time was that?

May bulletin is expected in about 10 days. 60 days from that point before Q4 bulletin releases, not seeing any indication of trends. Am I missing something?

The mass RFE's went out on June 14th, 2013.

[ksur23]

It is expected that PD will likely move from July to September. My PD is Jan 2009, I am hoping for some luck and get current in September. Does that mean I will likely get RFE in August? And does GC get mailed in September or later? Thanks to all who can respond.

[vizcard]

It is expected that PD will likely move from July to September. My PD is Jan 2009, I am hoping for some luck and get current in September. Does that mean I will likely get RFE in August? And does GC get mailed in September or later? Thanks to all who can respond.

You won't necessarily get a RFE - not everyone gets one. The physical GC takes a couple of months (IIRC). However, if you need to travel or anything, I believe you can get it stamped on your passport at your local USCIS office.

[EB2-03252009]

Hi,

My Priority date is 03-25-2009, EB2-I. I didn't apply last time when my priority date was current, what are the chances of getting at least EAD this year?

Thanks.

[ksur23]

You won't necessarily get a RFE - not everyone gets one. The physical GC takes a couple of months (IIRC). However, if you need to travel or anything, I believe you can get it stamped on your passport at your local USCIS office.

Got it. Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Moved the EB3-I 2013 SOFAD discussion to

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2398-2013-EB3-I-SOFAD-Discussion

For any further comments please go there. Please do not use this thread for that discussion.

[EB2-03252009]

anyone please?


Hi,

My Priority date is 03-25-2009, EB2-I. I didn't apply last time when my priority date was current, what are the chances of getting at least EAD this year?

Thanks.

[qesehmk]

anyone please?EB2-bunchofnumbers ... for you unfortunately the chances for an EAD and GC are pretty similar. The reason being there is a large backlog ahead of you that is quite mature i.e. ready to allocate visas. So CO has no reason to move dates far ahead unless visas are available. So he is calibrating EB2I moves very fine. The only reason we see retrogression is because of the artificial 3K limit. But realistically at the end of the year the dates are going to jump .. the chances of the dates jumping to Mar 2009 are 30-50% IMHO.

Once they jump there and you file you will receive your GC within 4-5 months.

[vizcard]

EB2-bunchofnumbers ... for you unfortunately the chances for an EAD and GC are pretty similar. The reason being there is a large backlog ahead of you that is quite mature i.e. ready to allocate visas. So CO has no reason to move dates far ahead unless visas are available. So he is calibrating EB2I moves very fine. The only reason we see retrogression is because of the artificial 3K limit. But realistically at the end of the year the dates are going to jump .. the chances of the dates jumping to Mar 2009 are 30-50% IMHO.

Once they jump there and you file you will receive your GC within 4-5 months.

...assuming your dates remain current.

[qesehmk]

...assuming your dates remain current.
Yep. Thanks Viz.!!!

[mknop1]

Hi Experts, my priority date is May 2010 in EB2 and it has been a tough 6 years since i went back home. I want to go home only after getting an EAD and not worry about stamping. What are my chances this year ? Or next ? Greatly appreciate any inputs.

[skpanda]

Hello Friends...

From the Demand Data I see about 30K pending for EB2I. Consular processing may have about 10K applicants. So a total outstanding applications till Apr 2010 is about 40K.

My PD is Dec 2010 EB2I.

As per my calculations if I assume a 15K GC allocation/SOFAD to EB2I for next two FYs, and a 3K porting for next two FYs, I am hoping that I should be able to file for EAD at the end of 2015 calender year (about 16K pending applications i.e. DD + Consular). Worst case would be July 2016.

Request you to point anything I may have missed and probable timeframe when I can file for EAD as per your calculations.


Thanks in Advance!

[qesehmk]

skpanda - I think this is reasonable and decently conservative. If there are more visas ... all the better!
Hello Friends...

From the Demand Data I see about 30K pending for EB2I. Consular processing may have about 10K applicants. So a total outstanding applications till Apr 2010 is about 40K.

My PD is Dec 2010 EB2I.

As per my calculations if I assume a 15K GC allocation/SOFAD to EB2I for next two FYs, and a 3K porting for next two FYs, I am hoping that I should be able to file for EAD at the end of 2015 calender year (about 16K pending applications i.e. DD + Consular). Worst case would be July 2016.

Request you to point anything I may have missed and probable timeframe when I can file for EAD as per your calculations.


Thanks in Advance!

[qesehmk]

mknop1 - I feel for you. I hope you are not hurt if I say this year there is absolutely zero chance that EB2I May 2010 will be current. I do not think it will be current at least for another 12 months from now. I would be pleased if I am proven wrong.

If I were you I would go back meet folks and stamp and come back. Just my 2 cents. Don't mean to hurt you.


Hi Experts, my priority date is May 2010 in EB2 and it has been a tough 6 years since i went back home. I want to go home only after getting an EAD and not worry about stamping. What are my chances this year ? Or next ? Greatly appreciate any inputs.

[skpanda]

Thanks Q...

A year ago I was hoping that I will be current at the end of 2014 Calender Year and avoid re-stamping in Feb 2015 when my visa expires (total 9 years of H1B).

As it appears there is zero chance of that. Hence I am mentally preparing myself for the best and worst case.

I have to get a new Visa stamp next year since I travel outside the country almost every month. I do not have any issues with that.. my only problem is my wife (on H4) is ready to start working early next year and we will have to either wait for EAD or look for a H1B employer. Seeking H1B for 9 months or 1 year before EAD may not be worth it.. so we might just wait it out and waste about 1 year.

If only CIR or some bill could get some relief to H4s.



skpanda - I think this is reasonable and decently conservative. If there are more visas ... all the better!

[qesehmk]

You're welcome skpanda.

You hope was alright. But one of the dynamic that has shifted the conventional 5 year wait is that now EB3I folks are getting mature in their careers and started porting into EB2. So that kind of has stalled EB2I movement a little. EB2I is still a whole lot better than EB3I but unfortunately for the EB2I folks with PD post mid 2008, now the wait has become even more agonizing with these EB3I portings.

For backlogged countries like India CIR is the only hope as industry has a vested interest in keeping H1B slavery intact. So nobody will work on EB immigration (zuckerberg is an honorable exception). As of now indeed it seems that any immigration reform for EB must be tagged to FB.

Good luck for your plans. My one piece of advice - if you don't mind. Don't wait on anything. Keep working on life and career. GC will take care of itself someday.


Thanks Q...

A year ago I was hoping that I will be current at the end of 2014 Calender Year and avoid re-stamping in Feb 2015 when my visa expires (total 9 years of H1B).

As it appears there is zero chance of that. Hence I am mentally preparing myself for the best and worst case.

I have to get a new Visa stamp next year since I travel outside the country almost every month. I do not have any issues with that.. my only problem is my wife (on H4) is ready to start working early next year and we will have to either wait for EAD or look for a H1B employer. Seeking H1B for 9 months or 1 year before EAD may not be worth it.. so we might just wait it out and waste about 1 year.

If only CIR or some bill could get some relief to H4s.

[mknop1]

qesehmk - Thanks for replying. I have been through a prolonged stamping experience once before so do not want to take the risk again. My family visits us regularly so i can't complain too much. What are my chances next year ? Or the year after ?


mknop1 - I feel for you. I hope you are not hurt if I say this year there is absolutely zero chance that EB2I May 2010 will be current. I do not think it will be current at least for another 12 months from now. I would be pleased if I am proven wrong.

If I were you I would go back meet folks and stamp and come back. Just my 2 cents. Don't mean to hurt you.

[qesehmk]

qesehmk - Thanks for replying. I have been through a prolonged stamping experience once before so do not want to take the risk again. My family visits us regularly so i can't complain too much. What are my chances next year ? Or the year after ?
May 2010 realistically seems like USCIS year 2016 end. So around Aug-Sep 2016 I would say.

[smuggymba]

My PD is Mar 2010 and I was few of the lucky one's who got EAD -my wife can work and I changed jobs also (that it's a headache is another story:( ). EAD is really good but unless you get GC, they take you to secondary inspection each time at PoE, it feels pretty bad :). I changed jobs for role (no money increase) and some times I question myself as to why I did that.

EAD gives you some extra stability but life without GC is still a painful process - license, travel, job etc.

[primus]

My PD is Mar 2010 and I was few of the lucky one's who got EAD -my wife can work and I changed jobs also (that it's a headache is another story:( ). EAD is really good but unless you get GC, they take you to secondary inspection each time at PoE, it feels pretty bad :). I changed jobs for role (no money increase) and some times I question myself as to why I did that.

EAD gives you some extra stability but life without GC is still a painful process - license, travel, job etc.

I don't want to discourage you. But do you know, (God forbid), if I-485 gets denied, then you will have to leave country immediately. But if you would have used your H1 to work and use AC21, then even if I-485 gets denied, you can continue staying here and re-apply or apply for MTR.

Actually I am also in same boat, and that looks like a sword hanging on my head all the time.

[vishnu]

skpanda: the demand data for EB2I of around 29,000 till April 2010 comprises of consular processing approved petitions AND the I-485s at USCIS centers - no need to double count.

[venkat]

Q, vizcard, kanmani, jagan and all other gurus,

Based on how it went last year it appears that RFE's may start in next 2 months for people who are likely to get GC in August/September of this year. I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year (my date was in the 4th week of June).

Can we say 95% of RFE's issued last year were related to Employment Verification letter alone? do you think we may still get Birth Certificate/Medical RFE's even if our files have been long pre-adjudicated?

Please share your thoughts.

Venkat

[smuggymba]

I don't want to discourage you. But do you know, (God forbid), if I-485 gets denied, then you will have to leave country immediately. But if you would have used your H1 to work and use AC21, then even if I-485 gets denied, you can continue staying here and re-apply or apply for MTR.

Actually I am also in same boat, and that looks like a sword hanging on my head all the time.

It's a risk I took given the long delays. I have never heard a AC21 denial case yet. I did consult with Murthy and the lawyer said that seems to falls under "similar" category.

[qesehmk]

Q, vizcard, kanmani, jagan and all other gurus,

Based on how it went last year it appears that RFE's may start in next 2 months for people who are likely to get GC in August/September of this year. I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year (my date was in the 4th week of June).

Can we say 95% of RFE's issued last year were related to Employment Verification letter alone? do you think we may still get Birth Certificate/Medical RFE's even if our files have been long pre-adjudicated?

Please share your thoughts.

Venkat
Venkat - I honestly never really gave a thought to RFEs. But looking at your date - you should be one of the first ones out of the gate. If you haven't received an RFE then the likelihood of receiving any is zero and you should've your GC pretty much in August (worst case Sep).

[mknop1]

qesehmk - Thanks again for your reply. Appreciate it. You mentioned that there might be possible tailwind related to EB2 ROW low usage. If that is considered true, how could that impact the possibility of EAD for May 2010 ?
May 2010 realistically seems like USCIS year 2016 end. So around Aug-Sep 2016 I would say.

[qesehmk]

mknop1 - EB2ROW is presenting an interesting situation no doubt. YTD usage is 25% compared to prior year. However there is still 6 more months to go and so we will see how it goes. But even if EB2ROW does provide full force tailwinds that will still not help you get EAD this year. May 2010 is just too far out I think. Sorry I don't have a better news for you.

[mknop1]

qesehmk - Thank you very much for taking the time and effort to answer my questions. Appreciate it very much,
mknop1 - EB2ROW is presenting an interesting situation no doubt. YTD usage is 25% compared to prior year. However there is still 6 more months to go and so we will see how it goes. But even if EB2ROW does provide full force tailwinds that will still not help you get EAD this year. May 2010 is just too far out I think. Sorry I don't have a better news for you.

[qesehmk]

You're very welcome mk.
qesehmk - Thank you very much for taking the time and effort to answer my questions. Appreciate it very much,

[Jagan01]

mknop1 - EB2ROW is presenting an interesting situation no doubt. YTD usage is 25% compared to prior year. However there is still 6 more months to go and so we will see how it goes. But even if EB2ROW does provide full force tailwinds that will still not help you get EAD this year. May 2010 is just too far out I think. Sorry I don't have a better news for you.

Q,
The PERM certifications have spiked. Since Jan 1, 2014 there are 18000 PERM approvals. https://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm?event=ehLCJRExternal.dspAdvCertSearch
Do you think EBROW candidates with PERM approvals beyond May will be able to get I-485 approved this year ?

Can Q, Kanmani, Viz, Matt, other Gurus please provide your opinion about what period PERM certifications should we be taking into consideration ?

Below is some data and analysis from my side:
Fiscal Year------------Period Considered-------------PERM Certifications------------EB2ROW Vis
FY2011----------------Apr 10 - Apr 11----------------58k------------------------------34k
FY2012----------------Apr 11 - Jan 12----------------33k------------------------------24k
FY2013----------------Jan 12 - Apr 13----------------66k------------------------------41k

We have 40k PERM Certifications from Apr 13 - Apr 14. I think that would map to 25k considering the above data. That would translate to 9k SOFA. I believe we have already used up EB2I annual quota and also used up the SO from FB to EB2. Considering that EB1C consume all its quota and SO from EB4, we are only left with this 9k.

We have 9k pending inventory prior to Oct 2008. CO said dates might move to Dec 2008 which will be true as he only would have capacity to give GC to people until Oct 2008. I am tensed as Jan 2009 is looking more and more unrealistic as time goes by.

[qesehmk]

Jagan

While compiling this data did you also look at years approved.

so e.g. although 66K were approved in 2013 ... what was the distribution of the PDs? If you haven't looked that way then you may want to do that.

So without verifying the data - I will say this.

Any perm approved after Feb may not be processed fast enough to get through current year quota. So as far as 2014 is concerned you may want to consider PERM data only until Jan or Feb at the most. That's my thought .... what do you think?


Q,
The PERM certifications have spiked. Since Jan 1, 2014 there are 18000 PERM approvals. https://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm?event=ehLCJRExternal.dspAdvCertSearch
Do you think EBROW candidates with PERM approvals beyond May will be able to get I-485 approved this year ?

Can Q, Kanmani, Viz, Matt, other Gurus please provide your opinion about what period PERM certifications should we be taking into consideration ?

Below is some data and analysis from my side:
Fiscal Year------------Period Considered-------------PERM Certifications------------EB2ROW Vis
FY2011----------------Apr 10 - Apr 11----------------58k------------------------------34k
FY2012----------------Apr 11 - Jan 12----------------33k------------------------------24k
FY2013----------------Jan 12 - Apr 13----------------66k------------------------------41k

We have 40k PERM Certifications from Apr 13 - Apr 14. I think that would map to 25k considering the above data. That would translate to 9k SOFA. I believe we have already used up EB2I annual quota and also used up the SO from FB to EB2. Considering that EB1C consume all its quota and SO from EB4, we are only left with this 9k.

We have 9k pending inventory prior to Oct 2008. CO said dates might move to Dec 2008 which will be true as he only would have capacity to give GC to people until Oct 2008. I am tensed as Jan 2009 is looking more and more unrealistic as time goes by.

[Jagan01]

Jagan

While compiling this data did you also look at years approved.

so e.g. although 66K were approved in 2013 ... what was the distribution of the PDs? If you haven't looked that way then you may want to do that.

So without verifying the data - I will say this.

Any perm approved after Feb may not be processed fast enough to get through current year quota. So as far as 2014 is concerned you may want to consider PERM data only until Jan or Feb at the most. That's my thought .... what do you think?

I did consider the years approved and have also listed them. Apr 10 means Apr 2010. I have noticed on trackitt that the people getting I-485 approved in Mar 2014 have had their I-140 approved in (Feb/Mar 2014). Most of the are premium processing and their PERM approval was sometime in Dec 2013 to Jan 2014. This makes me think that people getting I-485 in July 2014 would be those who have their PERM approved in Apr 2014.

Approval dates based on the above theory
PERM-----I-140-------I485
Dec 13----Feb 14-----Mar 14
Feb 14----Apr 14-----May 14
Apr 14----June 14-----Jul 14

PS: I am not considering the PDs as they do not bear any significance because EB2ROW is current. PERM approval dates do matter and they are shown above.

[Kanmani]

Jagan,

I do agree with Q, except taking Feb slab, I consider up to march. I think concurrent filed straight forward cases pass through within 6 months of perm approval.

I recommend you to consider only Regular I140 cases. Did you notice the I-140 backlog ?

[qesehmk]

Jagan - you are right there when you want to consider future approvals. But if you were to consider prior year demand then PD is better because that gives better idea of demand variation from one year to next (i mean raw annual demand).

This is a significant problem with PERM data that it is not homogenous. It represents multiple years of PDs and creates difficulties to analyze annual demand of backlogged countries.

Anyway ... I think it will be a good idea to wait a while and watch if this spikes EB2ROW approvals.


I am not considering the PDs as they do not bear any significance because EB2ROW is current. PERM approval dates do matter and they are shown above.

[redwood]

Jagan,

The increase in speed of PERM is a BIG concern but I would raise alarm when USCIS starts increasing their pace of I-140 approvals. Look at the below link and download the csv file.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

You will note that the I-140 approvals for 2013 were close to 100K. (You will need to make some assumptions, since Eb2row was U for 3 months in 2012)

Aug 13 - Jan 14 I-140 approvals = 27K (46% annual drop)

Lets assume that USCIS does 43K more approvals(60% increase) over the next 6 months i.e. (27K + 43K) 70K I-140 approved till Jul 14, then that is a drop of 30% in I-140 approvals.

If we club EB1 and EB2 together(80K approvals in 2013), that is a approval rate of 80K * 70% = 56K for 2014.






I did consider the years approved and have also listed them. Apr 10 means Apr 2010. I have noticed on trackitt that the people getting I-485 approved in Mar 2014 have had their I-140 approved in (Feb/Mar 2014). Most of the are premium processing and their PERM approval was sometime in Dec 2013 to Jan 2014. This makes me think that people getting I-485 in July 2014 would be those who have their PERM approved in Apr 2014.

Approval dates based on the above theory
PERM-----I-140-------I485
Dec 13----Feb 14-----Mar 14
Feb 14----Apr 14-----May 14
Apr 14----June 14-----Jul 14

PS: I am not considering the PDs as they do not bear any significance because EB2ROW is current. PERM approval dates do matter and they are shown above.

[YTeleven]

Please find the latest version of my document estimating the EB India Visa allocations for FY 2014 here. This is a conservative estimate, personally I feel EB2 India will get more visas than listed in this document. Most of you might not agree to these numbers but I've the key data pointers which are suggesting these numbers and I'll disclose those pointers in future months. At this point I'll open this to everyone for comments & to debate on why these numbers can't be true. These numbers are purely based on past statistics of all EB categories and considering current trends in all the areas of EB categories and how these trends affect the EB2 India visa allocation.
With this estimate EB2-I will get 21k visas in FY14 and there is already 5.5k visas are allocated in FY14 quota for EB2I, hence the remaining 15.5k will clear the existing EB2I backlogs till 1-Apr-2009.
Again, my personal feel is that we even cross this and go to Jun-09, anyways we will know what happens in next 6 months.

[Kanmani]

YT,

I appreciate your effort. EB3 share of allocation is 42900 out of 150,000, why do you think DoS might again repeat wasting their precious 900?

My opinion is that Apr 2009 is on the realistic side, June 09 to sept 09 is on the optimistic side.

[YTeleven]

Kanmani,

Thats a good catch. But after verifying the ratio of EB3 share to total EB for last 5 years, the correct projected value should be even lesser than 42k, it should be around 41k.
This is one important characteristic of the EB3 category, EB3 never got its full share of 28.6% in the past years and it may get max 41k this year. The last 2 years' % was around 27%.
I'll change this value to 41k in the next version of my document. I don't see this as a wastage of visas, instead we see these visas allocated to EB2 category in particular EB2-I as spillover.
It is easy to allocate leftover visas to EB2-I instead of wasting those in CP allocations specifically during last few days of financial year to meet the processing targets.


YT,

I appreciate your effort. EB3 share of allocation is 42900 out of 150,000, why do you think DoS might again repeat wasting their precious 900?

My opinion is that Apr 2009 is on the realistic side, June 09 to sept 09 is on the optimistic side.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

Thats a good catch. But after verifying the ratio of EB3 share to total EB for last 5 years, the correct projected value should be even lesser than 42k, it should be around 41k.
This is one important characteristic of the EB3 category, EB3 never got its full share of 28.6% in the past years and it may get max 41k this year. The last 2 years' % was around 27%.
I'll change this value to 41k in the next version of my document. I don't see this as a wastage of visas, instead we see these visas allocated to EB2 category in particular EB2-I as spillover.
It is easy to allocate leftover visas to EB2-I instead of wasting those in CP allocations specifically during last few days of financial year to meet the processing targets.

YT,

You are absolutely correct by all means, But I cannot agree with your view as we cannot take those visas as granted and divert them to EB2 during our calculations. EB3 is not under used category and the wastage ( in view of Eb3 it is wastage only) cannot be considered as excess.

Moreover not all the remaining visas are availed by EB2. For example in the year 2011, the total EB usage was 139,302 out of 140,000. Approximately 700 visas were redirected to FB'2012 while eb3 usage was 37,425 out of 40,040.
Similarly in 2012, 300 visas were redirected to FB'2013.

[YTeleven]

YT,

You are absolutely correct by all means, But I cannot agree with your view as we cannot take those visas as granted and divert them to EB2 during our calculations. EB3 is not under used category and the wastage ( in view of Eb3 it is wastage only) cannot be considered as excess.

Moreover not all the remaining visas are availed by EB2. For example in the year 2011, the total EB usage was 139,302 out of 140,000. Approximately 700 visas were redirected to FB'2012 while eb3 usage was 37,425 out of 40,040.
Similarly in 2012, 300 visas were redirected to FB'2013.

Kanmani,

I understand what you are saying. I've taken your points.
My goal in this document is to find the India numbers thru statistics(not regular calculations), considering the current trends so that when I compare these values with the actual values when they get released in Dec'14 should be in 2% tolerance levels.

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

The increase in speed of PERM is a BIG concern but I would raise alarm when USCIS starts increasing their pace of I-140 approvals. Look at the below link and download the csv file.


Jagan,

I do agree with Q, except taking Feb slab, I consider up to march. I think concurrent filed straight forward cases pass through within 6 months of perm approval.

I recommend you to consider only Regular I140 cases. Did you notice the I-140 backlog ?


Jagan - you are right there when you want to consider future approvals. But if you were to consider prior year demand then PD is better because that gives better idea of demand variation from one year to next (i mean raw annual demand).

This is a significant problem with PERM data that it is not homogenous. It represents multiple years of PDs and creates difficulties to analyze annual demand of backlogged countries.

Anyway ... I think it will be a good idea to wait a while and watch if this spikes EB2ROW approvals.

Q, Kanmani, redwood,

I do see that you all are not considering the fact that I-140 can be filed under premium processing. What do you think about candidates that would go for premium processing after PERM is approved. Do you think they can get I-485 approved if they get PERM approved on Apr 30, 2014 ? I think they can.

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

The increase in speed of PERM is a BIG concern but I would raise alarm when USCIS starts increasing their pace of I-140 approvals. Look at the below link and download the csv file.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

You will note that the I-140 approvals for 2013 were close to 100K. (You will need to make some assumptions, since Eb2row was U for 3 months in 2012)

Aug 13 - Jan 14 I-140 approvals = 27K (46% annual drop)

Lets assume that USCIS does 43K more approvals(60% increase) over the next 6 months i.e. (27K + 43K) 70K I-140 approved till Jul 14, then that is a drop of 30% in I-140 approvals.

If we club EB1 and EB2 together(80K approvals in 2013), that is a approval rate of 80K * 70% = 56K for 2014.

redwood,

I had already done a detailed analysis of the I-140 approvals some time last week. I did know that the I-140 approvals have gone down and the applications also have gone down. However, rise in PERM certifications can show a rise in I-140 approvals. We only have data up until Jan 14 for I-140 and we might see an increase in Apr 14 as PERM certifications have gone up in the period of Jan - Apr 14. Let us not assume that all EB2ROW candidates file regular processing.

[qesehmk]

I do see that you all are not considering the fact that I-140 can be filed under premium processing. What do you think about candidates that would go for premium processing after PERM is approved. Do you think they can get I-485 approved if they get PERM approved on Apr 30, 2014 ? I think they can.
Jagan - indeed - for most cases - the 140+485 processing can vary from 4-9 months when dates are current. So we will have to keep an eye on 140 approvals for possible spike.

[redwood]

Great Jagan. Lets assume that DOL will continue at its 7K per month for the whole year and all of these guys I-140 is approved a couple of months later(March PERM approvals become June I-140 approvals). Even then there is a 25% drop in approvals. Big assumption is USCIS doesn't go into the current I-140 backlog removal process. I am sure you will do your own quick analysis to verify this and smart enough to ask where are you getting EB2NIW and EB1 filings from.

Here is how I get it

1. Overlay the monthly PERM applications on your I-140 sheet you got from the link. http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1
2. Subtract the monthly perm applications number from I-140 receipts 2 months later. For eg. Sep I-140 receipts minus July PERM approvals.
3. You will see a nice average pattern of 2.4K EB2NIW/EB1 filings for the last 12 months or 2.5K over the last 6 months.

Look forward to seeing your analysis.


redwood,

I had already done a detailed analysis of the I-140 approvals some time last week. I did know that the I-140 approvals have gone down and the applications also have gone down. However, rise in PERM certifications can show a rise in I-140 approvals. We only have data up until Jan 14 for I-140 and we might see an increase in Apr 14 as PERM certifications have gone up in the period of Jan - Apr 14. Let us not assume that all EB2ROW candidates file regular processing.

[skpanda]

I do not think so..

Gurus.. can you please confirm that Consular Processing numbers are included in Demand Data? I always thought DOS had no access to that information.




skpanda: the demand data for EB2I of around 29,000 till April 2010 comprises of consular processing approved petitions AND the I-485s at USCIS centers - no need to double count.

[qesehmk]

DOS has visibility only to the cases sent to counselor posts.

There is huge backlog at NVC that is not sent to DOS for a long time.

I do not think so..

Gurus.. can you please confirm that Consular Processing numbers are included in Demand Data? I always thought DOS had no access to that information.

[YTeleven]

Since you are analysing the I-485 & I-140 processing data, thought of sharing this data which is compared to last 2 years averages.
First 2 columns are yearly values and last 3 columns are monthly averages.
From the I-485 processing data I could say that:
1) Preadjudicated files are at its lowest ever and they are all just EB2-India and EB3-India I-485 applications.
2) There is more room for preadjudicated files compare to last 2 years processing data..this shows more EB3-ROW movements in future.
3) Since begining of FY2014 there were 31k of I-485s got added to pending files..this shows that the processing is slow.
4) Inspite of advancing the EB3-ROW there is NOT much increase in New Receipts...more forward movement of EB3-ROW is needed.
5) Comparing the average values of Completed & New Receipts with past 2 years values..it shows NO significant demand from EB1, EB2-ROW or EB3-ROW.
6) Completed value is less than new receipts value and hence pending value is high
From the I-140 processing data I could say that:
1) Completed & New Receipt values are very less compared to previous years values. This shows NOT much demand due to last year slow PERM data.
2) Pending files are at its highest values and hence the processing is slow.

513

[skpanda]

04/08/2014: White House Release of Fact Sheet of 04/07/2014 on "Soon-to-be Released" H-4 Spouse Employment Authorization Regulation


I have been hearing about this rule making since 2 years but nothing fruitful has happened. Hope this time it materializes.

Source:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/04/07/fact-sheet-strengthening-entrepreneurship-home-and-abroad

http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html

[Kanmani]

Q, Kanmani, redwood,

I do see that you all are not considering the fact that I-140 can be filed under premium processing. What do you think about candidates that would go for premium processing after PERM is approved. Do you think they can get I-485 approved if they get PERM approved on Apr 30, 2014 ? I think they can.

Jagan,

Its 50-50 probability, why because not all the companies pay for premium processing, not all the law firms have direct contact with the applicant, not all the RoW applicants go for premium by self paying.

[YTeleven]

Jagan,

Its 50-50 probability, why because not all the companies pay for premium processing, not all the law firms have direct contact with the applicant, not all the RoW applicants go for premium by self paying.

Also, it needs to go thru a business justification process. Why would a ROW candidate needs premium processing when their category is current and can be filed 485 concurrently. No legitimate business will allow extra spending on wastage.

[YTeleven]

Look at this interesting PERM trend and see how EB-ROW demand is getting reduced as years pass on: 514
BTW, I'm expecting this year INDIA will cross 50K visas ..37k+(EB) & 13k(FB)...will see how it turns out this year..

[qesehmk]

YT great great great work!!! You may want to explain for everybody's benefit whether the data by year represents approvals during that year or total approved demand from that year. (in other words - if 2006 shows 100 ROW EB2 then is 100 all EB2ROW approvals in 2006 with PDs spread across multiple years behind. Or does 100 represent EB2 ROW demand with PDs in 2006 - but they may be approved either same year or in later years!!




Look at this interesting PERM trend and see how EB-ROW demand is getting reduced as years pass on: 514
BTW, I'm expecting this year INDIA will cross 50K visas ..37k+(EB) & 13k(FB)...will see how it turns out this year..

[YTeleven]

YT great great great work!!! You may want to explain for everybody's benefit whether the data by year represents approvals during that year or total approved demand from that year. (in other words - if 2006 shows 100 ROW EB2 then is 100 all EB2ROW approvals in 2006 with PDs spread across multiple years behind. Or does 100 represent EB2 ROW demand with PDs in 2006 - but they may be approved either same year or in later years!!

Q,

These values are straight from DOL annual reports/data sheets, so they are approved in that FY and not based on PD. Finding the PD based approvals seems difficult and time consuming.

[PD2008AUG25]

04/08/2014: White House Release of Fact Sheet of 04/07/2014 on "Soon-to-be Released" H-4 Spouse Employment Authorization Regulation


I have been hearing about this rule making since 2 years but nothing fruitful has happened. Hope this time it materializes.

Source:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/04/07/fact-sheet-strengthening-entrepreneurship-home-and-abroad

http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html

Even if it materializes, it is so limited in scope that it's almost useless. If I remember correctly, it's only for H1Bs who have I-485 pending and have been on H1B for more than 6 years.

[axecapone]

Even if it materializes, it is so limited in scope that it's almost useless. If I remember correctly, it's only for H1Bs who have I-485 pending and have been on H1B for more than 6 years.

I dont think this is related to 485. This is just for people on H1B whether they have filed GC or not. I think it will be limited to only high tech (not sure if it encompasses STEM).

[vishnu]

yes - we dont' know the scope of this new rule, but all the past rules (which never made it to being enacted) only referred to ac21...not about i-485 approval. Just needed an approved i-140, and hence extension of H1 beyond 6 years (but not necessarily the i-485)

[qesehmk]

Q,

These values are straight from DOL annual reports/data sheets, so they are approved in that FY and not based on PD. Finding the PD based approvals seems difficult and time consuming.
Thanks YT. I agree it is tedious. Spec-The-Great always did it for us and spoiled all of us.

[suninphx]

YT- this is a terrific piece of work. Keep it up.

[shekhar_kuruk]

Here is the break up of estimation for India according to YT.
EB1 - 10700
EB2 - 21000
EB3 - 4,200
EB4 - 608
EB5 - 77.
Also from the same document(Thanks YT), allocated visas for EB2 - India for 2011 is 23,997. It will be interesting to see what the actual allocation is for EB2 India this year, but I am willing to bet that it will be more than that.
If anybody is willing to bet, I will take the wager(Beer ofcourse ;).



Please find the latest version of my document estimating the EB India Visa allocations for FY 2014 here. This is a conservative estimate, personally I feel EB2 India will get more visas than listed in this document. Most of you might not agree to these numbers but I've the key data pointers which are suggesting these numbers and I'll disclose those pointers in future months. At this point I'll open this to everyone for comments & to debate on why these numbers can't be true. These numbers are purely based on past statistics of all EB categories and considering current trends in all the areas of EB categories and how these trends affect the EB2 India visa allocation.
With this estimate EB2-I will get 21k visas in FY14 and there is already 5.5k visas are allocated in FY14 quota for EB2I, hence the remaining 15.5k will clear the existing EB2I backlogs till 1-Apr-2009.
Again, my personal feel is that we even cross this and go to Jun-09, anyways we will know what happens in next 6 months.

[primus]

Some good news... press released yesterday.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/04/07/fact-sheet-strengthening-entrepreneurship-home-and-abroad

"These proposed regulations include rules authorizing employment for spouses of certain high-skill workers on H-1B visas, as well as enhancing opportunities for outstanding professors and researchers."

[YTeleven]

Here is the break up of estimation for India according to YT.
EB1 - 10700
EB2 - 21000
EB3 - 4,200
EB4 - 608
EB5 - 77.
Also from the same document(Thanks YT), allocated visas for EB2 - India for 2011 is 23,997. It will be interesting to see what the actual allocation is for EB2 India this year, but I am willing to bet that it will be more than that.
If anybody is willing to bet, I will take the wager(Beer ofcourse ;).
Yes. That year due to Kazarian effect EB1 consumed only 25k giving EB2 a huge spillover and hence you see 24k for EB2-I. who knows something might similar happens this year too... I'm already seeing EB1 inventory piling up due to slow processing.. if that continues till the end of this year you might see huge spillover from EB1 making your wish comes true.

[Spectator]

Love the presentation YT.

Here's the analysis by CY of PD for published date up to Q1 FY2014.

515

Clearly the CY2013 numbers are nowhere near complete. By the end of Q1 FY2014 PERM processing was about half way through April 2013 PDs.

The CY2013 numbers have more than doubled in Q2 FY2014 (another 14.1k) from the previous cumulative total of 13k. Processing had reached part way through August 2013 by the end of Q2 FY2014. Q1 FY2014 certifications for CY2013 were 6.8k. PERM Certifications (for all CY) in Q1 FY2014 were 9,076. In Q2 that nearly doubled to around 17,114 according to the LCR.

Ultimately, I expect CY2013 certifications to be around the same or slightly higher than CY2012 after the audit cases are added sometime in the future. Audit cases from CY2012 continue to be certified.


I can see both points of view in the recent discussion. Some comments:

YT's figures give a good idea of DOL productivity. Clearly, that is also likely to translate to I-140 and I-1485 applications and approvals in the short term.

The figures above show the underlying trend by PD year.

ROW is on a slight upward trend from a low of CY2010 PD.
That's true for China as well, but their low was in CY2009.
India has more than doubled since their low in 2009.

Overall, total PERM receipts are on a very gentle upward trend according to the figures published by DOL.

Ultimately, that will translate to I-140 (and I-485 for ROW) as DOL process them. It may be good times this year for India if the slow PERM processing depresses numbers of ROW receiving I-140 and I-485 approvals in FY2014. Eventually, that will catch up - DOL have already shown signs of speeding up processing.

Unfortunately, it will just translate to an awful next year as the underlying numbers of PERM certifications translate into I-485 approvals.

I looked at premium processing for EB2-ROW cases with an I-485 on Trackitt over the last few years. From Oct 2011 it shows PP cases as 67% of the total, from Oct 2012 as 60% and from Oct 2013 as 66%. I was slightly surprised the % was so high. Of course, it is possible that Trackitt does not accurately reflect the true %, but it is the only data available.

As an average over the last 3 FY, EB2-ROW/M/P have had GC approvals of only around 400 less than the allocation they would have received if only 140k was available to EB. That is something to ponder on.

PS - now that I am able to, I will update the PERM figures in Facts & Data over the next few days. With YT's permission, I will also add a post with both the PERM Certification graphs by FY of Decision FY and by CY of PD, which I will keep updated as DOL publish the quarterly disclosure data.

[Jagan01]

I looked at premium processing for EB2-ROW cases with an I-485 on Trackitt over the last few years. From Oct 2011 it shows PP cases as 67% of the total, from Oct 2012 as 60% and from Oct 2013 as 66%. I was slightly surprised the % was so high. Of course, it is possible that Trackitt does not accurately reflect the true %, but it is the only data available.

As an average over the last 3 FY, EB2-ROW/M/P have had GC approvals of only around 400 less than the allocation they would have received if only 140k was available to EB.

Welcome Back Spec !!!

I have been repeatedly asking this question on the forum about which months PERM certifications will make it to this FY numbers for EB2ROW. Whats your take on it. I had also mentioned the same point that Premium processing is pretty high on trackitt for EB2ROW and hence we should consider all the Apr PERM certifications as potential candidates to take away GC for EB2ROW.

[geevikram]

Love the presentation YT.

Here's the analysis by CY of PD for published date up to Q1 FY2014.

515

Clearly the CY2013 numbers are nowhere near complete. By the end of Q1 FY2014 PERM processing was about half way through April 2013 PDs.

The CY2013 numbers have more than doubled in Q2 FY2014 (another 14.1k) from the previous cumulative total of 13k. Processing had reached part way through August 2013 by the end of Q2 FY2014. Q1 FY2014 certifications for CY2013 were 6.8k. PERM Certifications (for all CY) in Q1 FY2014 were 9,076. In Q2 that nearly doubled to around 17,114 according to the LCR.

Ultimately, I expect CY2013 certifications to be around the same or slightly higher than CY2012 after the audit cases are added sometime in the future. Audit cases from CY2012 continue to be certified.


I can see both points of view in the recent discussion. Some comments:

YT's figures give a good idea of DOL productivity. Clearly, that is also likely to translate to I-140 and I-1485 applications and approvals in the short term.

The figures above show the underlying trend by PD year.

ROW is on a slight upward trend from a low of CY2010 PD.
That's true for China as well, but their low was in CY2009.
India has more than doubled since their low in 2009.

Overall, total PERM receipts are on a very gentle upward trend according to the figures published by DOL.

Ultimately, that will translate to I-140 (and I-485 for ROW) as DOL process them. It may be good times this year for India if the slow PERM processing depresses numbers of ROW receiving I-140 and I-485 approvals in FY2014. Eventually, that will catch up - DOL have already shown signs of speeding up processing.

Unfortunately, it will just translate to an awful next year as the underlying numbers of PERM certifications translate into I-485 approvals.

I looked at premium processing for EB2-ROW cases with an I-485 on Trackitt over the last few years. From Oct 2011 it shows PP cases as 67% of the total, from Oct 2012 as 60% and from Oct 2013 as 66%. I was slightly surprised the % was so high. Of course, it is possible that Trackitt does not accurately reflect the true %, but it is the only data available.

As an average over the last 3 FY, EB2-ROW/M/P have had GC approvals of only around 400 less than the allocation they would have received if only 140k was available to EB. That is something to ponder on.

PS - now that I am able to, I will update the PERM figures in Facts & Data over the next few days. With YT's permission, I will also add a post with both the PERM Certification graphs by FY of Decision FY and by CY of PD, which I will keep updated as DOL publish the quarterly disclosure data.


Thanks and welcome back Spec.

[qesehmk]

Welcome back Spec ! Thanks for posting it. I could've posted it on your behalf ... but thought people ought to hear it from the Guru himself!

Love the presentation YT.

Here's the analysis by CY of PD for published date up to Q1 FY2014.

[Silverlining027]

Hello everyone and Namashkar to all Gurus,
I have been silent follower of this forum like many. This forum has helped me to make couple of major professional decision of my carrier which has improved my professional and personal life. Many Many thanks to all Gurus and others. Special Thanks to Q for running this informative blog which provide very realistic information which helped people like make best decision for carrier growth without living in false GC hopes.
Spec,
Thank you for coming back to this forum. we need you around to keep our hope alive. :)

[YTeleven]

Spec,
Thank you and Welcome back. This forum very much needs your expert comments regularly.

[imdeng]

Welcome back Spec. It is so great to see you around in these parts again. You were sorely missed.

About the % of PP cases in Trackitt - since folks who take the trouble to get on trackitt are the ones who are most "motivated" - and the same set is likely to use PP - it does stand to reason that trackitt will significantly overstate the % of PP.

[Spectator]

About the % of PP cases in Trackitt - since folks who take the trouble to get on trackitt are the ones who are most "motivated" - and the same set is likely to use PP - it does stand to reason that trackitt will significantly overstate the % of PP.imdeng,

I don't necessarily disagree and it is why I put the rider in my comment about Trackitt data. I prefer to use larger data sets.

At the same time, let's not pretend it is an insignificant number.

ROW are human too. At a time when PERM is taking for ever, they are just as likely to wish to accelerate the process after they receive certification, even if they can file concurrently.

It's perfectly legal for the beneficiary to pay the PP fee.

Rather than wait for 4-6 months for the I-140 approval, then another 3-4 months for the I-485 approval, who wouldn't seriously consider cutting the I-140 approval stage to a potential 15 days. I think that is especially pertinent, now that I-140 processing has slowed so much, as evidenced by the dashboard figures. PP is fast becoming the only way to get the SC to deal with the I-140.

[suninphx]

Spec,

Your posts are like 'cool breeze' in this desert of scattered, insufficient data. As usual thank you so very much for to the point and detailed comments. Hope to see more.

[Kanmani]

Spec,

HAAAAAAAAPY to see you man!

Thank you for the PP data. Have you reached / able to track the new DD location ?

[imdeng]

Oh - I absolutely agree Spec. ROW folks need to do what they can legally do to best further their progress in the process. I would do the same if in that situation. I was only commenting on the line that trackitt might be overstating PP % due to selection bias. I have no doubt that the recent delays would have caused the % of PP to go up - I am arguing that it would still be lower than whats shown by trackitt. Lower, but surely not insignificant, as you say.


imdeng,

I don't necessarily disagree and it is why I put the rider in my comment about Trackitt data. I prefer to use larger data sets.

At the same time, let's not pretend it is an insignificant number.

ROW are human too. At a time when PERM is taking for ever, they are just as likely to wish to accelerate the process after they receive certification, even if they can file concurrently.

It's perfectly legal for the beneficiary to pay the PP fee.

Rather than wait for 4-6 months for the I-140 approval, then another 3-4 months for the I-485 approval, who wouldn't seriously consider cutting the I-140 approval stage to a potential 15 days. I think that is especially pertinent, now that I-140 processing has slowed so much, as evidenced by the dashboard figures. PP is fast becoming the only way to get the SC to deal with the I-140.

[idiotic]

imdeng,

I don't necessarily disagree and it is why I put the rider in my comment about Trackitt data. I prefer to use larger data sets.

At the same time, let's not pretend it is an insignificant number.

ROW are human too. At a time when PERM is taking for ever, they are just as likely to wish to accelerate the process after they receive certification, even if they can file concurrently.

It's perfectly legal for the beneficiary to pay the PP fee.

Rather than wait for 4-6 months for the I-140 approval, then another 3-4 months for the I-485 approval, who wouldn't seriously consider cutting the I-140 approval stage to a potential 15 days. I think that is especially pertinent, now that I-140 processing has slowed so much, as evidenced by the dashboard figures. PP is fast becoming the only way to get the SC to deal with the I-140.

Pleasantly surprised to see you here. You made my day :)

Wishing to see you around and remove the X cross mark from your picture ..

[Spectator]

PERM Data in FACTS & DATA has been updated to Q1 FY2014 and YT style Charts added.

[Kanmani]

May 2014 Visa Bulletin http://www.travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-may-2014.html

No Change for EB2I

[MATT2012]

Spec,
Nice to see your awesome work and ur continued dedication to provide clarity to the immigrant community. Indeed Happy to see ur post here.

Cheers!!

Matt