EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[vizcard]

I got my birth certificate translation done from www.rev.com and I got RFE for that; officer could not find my translated birth certificate. That is lame.

Anyway, I am planning to resend same translation copy, (its a pdf that I printed out). Is it required to send original translation? because rev.com send translation copy with their seal as pdf, but never hard copy.

Is there any other way, anyone can suggest to get translation done in 24 hours? I heard someone said, I can get translation done and get my friend attestation, and that also work?

One more thing, I never had birth certificate, so I got one issued from India in 2007. So issue date is 2007 while I born before way before 1980. So sometime officer gets confused as why issue date is not matching with birth date. Did anyone had such issue? Any help will be appreciated as I want to send this by tomorrow itself to not waste even a single day before Nov. 27th, after that date retrogression will be started :(
Please help me, if you have any such experince or knowledge. Thanks in advance.

Primus
I don't have personal experience but there is a sub forum here dedicated to BC RFEs. Check that out. There was tons if discussion in early 2011.

[imdeng]

Congratulations SeattLet - you are first one cribbing about getting your GC too quickly :-)

I don't know if any of us *know* where the numbers are coming from. They do have a decent idea of what the future demand pattern is - and if they feel fine about releasing some numbers early in the FY - then I guess I am pretty okay with it. My personal feel is that they are looking at EB2-ROW coming in slow, EB1 (perhaps, not likely) coming in a little slow and FB likely to give some numbers away to EB. It really doesn't matter anyway though - all numbers need to be tied together by the end of the FY - so any imbalance being created right now will get corrected in Summer 2014.


Can any one of our gurus explain where the visa numbers for all EB2 I approvals in Nov came from. Is there a way to logically explain it ?
I got my green card yesterday but I wasnt expecting it at all since usually when DOS retrogresses severely, the visa numbers become internally unavailable within days ?

[Jagan01]

I can't wait for the next demand data!

Seriously... The wait is killing...

I hope we get the DD in December at least...

January I-485 inventory is the most awaited... That should give us a very good picture of FY2014 and the way the dates will move in Summer of 2014.

[cantpickaname]

The only thing uscis is good at : not releasing useful data.

Seriously... The wait is killing...

I hope we get the DD in December at least...

January I-485 inventory is the most awaited... That should give us a very good picture of FY2014 and the way the dates will move in Summer of 2014.

[KinneraK]

It's always a good idea to be on H1 even while 485 is pending. Because in case 485 is denied then without H1 you are out of status immediately.

Does this hold true even when the initial 6 yr quota of H1 is completed and a person is on the 3 yr increments based on approved I140?

I am currently in this situation,Have my EAD but still on H1 which expires 06/2014.Employer wants to renew but I don't want to go through the hassle of the renewal process

Thanks in advance for your clarification (s)

[qesehmk]

Welcome to forum Kinnera.

Yes indeed. It is always better to Have H1 status in addition to AOS pending. Simply AOS pending is dangerous and if the case is denied, then you have no option than going back to your country ASAP.
Does this hold true even when the initial 6 yr quota of H1 is completed and a person is on the 3 yr increments based on approved I140?

I am currently in this situation,Have my EAD but still on H1 which expires 06/2014.Employer wants to renew but I don't want to go through the hassle of the renewal process

Thanks in advance for your clarification (s)

[MrIndia]

Q and Gurus,

I have been an active reader of this forum a little over an year. Never thought I would register and post something as I am not good at any sort of math you guys do with these predictions.
Commending all the efforts every one is contributing to this forum I would like to share a first hand info that one my spouse's friend got their GC cards last week and their prioroty is EB2-I in the first Q of 2010, they have applied 485 when the dates were current in 2012.

With I-485 Inventory out there and this info any predictions for my Priority?
EB2I | PD: 10/01/2009 | Missed the boat in 2012 for filing I-485 due to employment change.

p.s Modified the post in bold

[primus]

My friend's PD was Sep 2013 in EB1 and he got GC approved in first week of Nov.


Q and Gurus,

I have been an active reader of this forum a little over an year. Never thought I would register and post something as I am not good at any sort of math you guys do with these predictions.
Commending all the efforts every one is contributing to this forum I would like to share a first hand info that one my spouse's friend got their GC cards and their prioroty is EB2-I in the first Q of 2010.

With I-485 Inventory out there and this info any predictions for my Priority?
EB2I | PD: 10/01/2009 | Missed the boat in 2012 for filing I-485 due to employment change.

[KinneraK]

Welcome to forum Kinnera.

Yes indeed. It is always better to Have H1 status in addition to AOS pending. Simply AOS pending is dangerous and if the case is denied, then you have no option than going back to your country ASAP.

Qesehmk,

Thanks for the warm welcome and the clarifications :)

Are you telling me: Even though my H1 renewal is based on a pending I40, denied I485 still keeps me in status for the remaining validity period on the H1 but further renewals might not be possible because I am over the initial 6 yr quota.

I was under the impression that since my initial 6 yr quota was long gone, it doesn't really matter if I am on H1 or EAD because god forbid if my I485 is denied
I will be out of status starting immediately and will be required to leave the country and can't come back until after a year?

[KinneraK]

I got my birth certificate translation done from www.rev.com and I got RFE for that; officer could not find my translated birth certificate. That is lame.

Anyway, I am planning to resend same translation copy, (its a pdf that I printed out). Is it required to send original translation? because rev.com send translation copy with their seal as pdf, but never hard copy.

Is there any other way, anyone can suggest to get translation done in 24 hours? I heard someone said, I can get translation done and get my friend attestation, and that also work?

One more thing, I never had birth certificate, so I got one issued from India in 2007. So issue date is 2007 while I born before way before 1980. So sometime officer gets confused as why issue date is not matching with birth date. Did anyone had such issue? Any help will be appreciated as I want to send this by tomorrow itself to not waste even a single day before Nov. 27th, after that date retrogression will be started :(
Please help me, if you have any such experince or knowledge. Thanks in advance.

Hi Primus,

If the DOB is years before the issued date on the BC then affidavits from Parents can be included in the application package. I included the BC and the affidavits pointed
out that the BC issue date is well after the yr of birth

I had 2 BCs (don't ask me why) one from 1986(my yr of birth) and one from 2008. I included affidavits from my parents and later onmy attorney said
that's what he normally suggests to avoid RFEs

[Kanmani]

Qesehmk,

Thanks for the warm welcome and the clarifications :)

Are you telling me: Even though my H1 renewal is based on a pending I40, denied I485 still keeps me in status for the remaining validity period on the H1 but further renewals might not be possible because I am over the initial 6 yr quota.

I was under the impression that since my initial 6 yr quota was long gone, it doesn't really matter if I am on H1 or EAD because god forbid if my I485 is denied
I will be out of status starting immediately and will be required to leave the country and can't come back until after a year?

KinneraK,

YES, H1 is valid until its validity date even if the I-485 is denied/ I-140 revoked by employer/ I-140 cancelled for fraud. Once approved H1 approval becomes independent from the respective I-140. You can transfer H1 from Emp A to Emp B ..... with a valid I-140.

Even after the denial of I-485, the I-140 is still valid provided the petition is not revoked or cancelled.

[qesehmk]

Kinnera, yes that is what I am saying.

Kanmani explained it even further saying that a denied 485 is just that. It doesn't invalidate I-140 nor H1.

p.s. - Not related to your situation but purely for theoretical discussion - Kanmani's point is technically perfect given that 485 is the beneficiary's thing vs I-140 and H1 are employer petitions. So if a person's 485 is denied without USCIS finding any fault with the underlying I-140 - s/he can reapply after addressing the reason why 485 was denied.



Are you telling me: Even though my H1 renewal is based on a pending I40, denied I485 still keeps me in status for the remaining validity period on the H1 but further renewals might not be possible because I am over the initial 6 yr quota.

[venkat]

Sorry if this is late news

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

[primus]

Hi Primus,

If the DOB is years before the issued date on the BC then affidavits from Parents can be included in the application package. I included the BC and the affidavits pointed
out that the BC issue date is well after the yr of birth

I had 2 BCs (don't ask me why) one from 1986(my yr of birth) and one from 2008. I included affidavits from my parents and later onmy attorney said
that's what he normally suggests to avoid RFEs

Hi KinneraK,

Do you mind sharing the affidavit template? And when did you apply for 485 and what is your PD?

[willywonka]

Seriously... The wait is killing...

I hope we get the DD in December at least...

January I-485 inventory is the most awaited... That should give us a very good picture of FY2014 and the way the dates will move in Summer of 2014.

Do you expect the overall EB2I inventory in January to be higher than that of what the 10/01/2013 inventory shows ? Or would it be lower?

[Jagan01]

January inventory will be much lower than 10/01/2013 inventory.

The 10/01/2013 inventory has accounted for most of the demand.
1. Demand of the first time applicants that files in Aug/Sep (These are mainly porters that are filing first time).
2. All outstanding demand as of 10/01/2013 from original EB2 applicants (very small)

The only demand coming in after 10/01/2013 is the interfiling cases that are picked up by USCIS. I think 70% of interfiling cases were cleared before Oct 01, 2013. So these interfiling cases would not be much.

As far as supply goes:
1. At least 55% of the first time applicants (Aug+Sep) have been cleared in FY2014.
2. Most of the interfiling cases are cleared by now
3. Most of the original EB2 filers are also cleared

To summarize, the Jan 2014 inventory should be much much lower compared to Oct 2013 inventory.
Here is what I expect:
Applications before:
Jan 1, 2008 --> 1k
Jan 1, 2009 --> 10k

[vizcard]

January inventory will be much lower than 10/01/2013 inventory.

The 10/01/2013 inventory has accounted for most of the demand.
1. Demand of the first time applicants that files in Aug/Sep (These are mainly porters that are filing first time).
2. All outstanding demand as of 10/01/2013 from original EB2 applicants (very small)

The only demand coming in after 10/01/2013 is the interfiling cases that are picked up by USCIS. I think 70% of interfiling cases were cleared before Oct 01, 2013. So these interfiling cases would not be much.

As far as supply goes:
1. At least 55% of the first time applicants (Aug+Sep) have been cleared in FY2014.
2. Most of the interfiling cases are cleared by now
3. Most of the original EB2 filers are also cleared

To summarize, the Jan 2014 inventory should be much much lower compared to Oct 2013 inventory.
Here is what I expect:
Applications before:
Jan 1, 2008 --> 1k
Jan 1, 2009 --> 10k

I think you maybe confusing demand and inventory. If inventory was that low there would be forward movement.

[Jagan01]

I think you maybe confusing demand and inventory. If inventory was that low there would be forward movement.

Viz,

Inventory means the I-485 inventory. I am not confusing it with the Demand Data.

We shall see once the January inventory data (I-485 Inventory released by USCIS) is out. I stick with the numbers I have given above. I believe it will be much much lower than the I-485 inventory published in the month of Oct (By USCIS).

I do not quite understand why you say that the dates should move ahead if the inventory numbers were as low as I am predicting. Simple example can be the Feb 2013 visa bulletin. The dates stayed at Sep 04. The inventory before that was like 500. The dates did not move ahead. CO is anticipating porting to consume the monthly allocations hence the dates would not move ahead.

We shall sync back when I-485 inventory is published for January.

[vizcard]

Viz,

Inventory means the I-485 inventory. I am not confusing it with the Demand Data.

We shall see once the January inventory data (I-485 Inventory released by USCIS) is out. I stick with the numbers I have given above. I believe it will be much much lower than the I-485 inventory published in the month of Oct (By USCIS).

I do not quite understand why you say that the dates should move ahead if the inventory numbers were as low as I am predicting. Simple example can be the Feb 2013 visa bulletin. The dates stayed at Sep 04. The inventory before that was like 500. The dates did not move ahead. CO is anticipating porting to consume the monthly allocations hence the dates would not move ahead.

We shall sync back when I-485 inventory is published for January.

Inventory data was not published in February 2013. Below are links from Jan and April 2013. Jan had 42k+ in inventory and April had almost 43k for EB2I

Jan 2013 - http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I485%20Pending%20Inventory_01_15_2013.pdf

April 2013 - http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2004-02-2013%20Final.pdf

[Jagan01]

Inventory data was not published in February 2013. Below are links from Jan and April 2013. Jan had 42k+ in inventory and April had almost 43k for EB2I

Jan 2013 - http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I485%20Pending%20Inventory_01_15_2013.pdf

April 2013 - http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2004-02-2013%20Final.pdf

Viz,

January 2013 inventory is the closest one to Feb 2013 visa bulletin. The visa bulletin of Feb 2013 would have been published around Jan 10, 2013 and hence January 2013 inventory is the best reference point.

The link you provided is the exact link that I was talking about. http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...01_15_2013.pdf

My point is that according to Jan 2013 inventory there were 550 applications before SEP 2004 which was the date for EB2I in Feb bulletin.

The inventory before Sep 2004 was very low yet the dates did not move ahead. I was just trying to point out that your statement "If inventory was that low then dates should move ahead" is not necessarily true. It has been proven in past that if CO thinks that porting will consume the monthly allocations then dates wont move ahead even if the inventory was 500 or 400 etc.

[willywonka]

Jagan,
If the cumulative inventory before Jan 2009 in fact turns out to be about 10-11k like you said, it will be fantastic. I surely hope it will be so.

On a different note, do you guys have any information about how the Perm processing is going to go this FY ? Can we expect it to continue at the pace it had been in the past six months or is there any reason for it to pickup some speed ?

[veni001]

2013-Q4 PERM Data Released. (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/docs/py2013/PERM_FY2013_Q4.xlsx)

FY-2013 Summary:
Total:44,152
Certified:35,203
Den/Withd:8,949 20.3%
INDIA:20,930 59.5%
CHINA:2,135
MEXICO:718
PHIL:928
ROW:10,492 29.8%

IND account for 59.5% of total PERM approvals in 2013.
Total ROW approvals dropped below 30%

[vizcard]

Viz,

January 2013 inventory is the closest one to Feb 2013 visa bulletin. The visa bulletin of Feb 2013 would have been published around Jan 10, 2013 and hence January 2013 inventory is the best reference point.

The link you provided is the exact link that I was talking about. http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...01_15_2013.pdf

My point is that according to Jan 2013 inventory there were 550 applications before SEP 2004 which was the date for EB2I in Feb bulletin.

The inventory before Sep 2004 was very low yet the dates did not move ahead. I was just trying to point out that your statement "If inventory was that low then dates should move ahead" is not necessarily true. It has been proven in past that if CO thinks that porting will consume the monthly allocations then dates wont move ahead even if the inventory was 500 or 400 etc.

Then why did CO move the dates so aggressively in 2011?

[Jagan01]

Then why did CO move the dates so aggressively in 2011?

Viz,

I do not think its of any point continuing this further. Everyone knows the reason the dates moved so aggressively in 2011. I do not know why you want to jump to that as it is tangential to the discussion. We do not have that kind of situation where the entire inventory "Until the current date of Nov 2013" is low.

In my original discussion I had mentioned about inventory up until Jan 2008 and Jan 2009. That is very very very different from overall inventory.

[zztopfan]

I sure hope this turns out to be case of conservative lawyer speak. I would be so disappointed if the CO dates do not touch 2009 by end of FY 2014.

11/27/2013: India EB-2 Number Became Unavailable Effective 11/20/2013 for November Visa Bulletin Pending Cases

AILA reports that no additional EB-2 numbers was allocated for EB-2 India for I-485 adjudications in November 2013. This confirms reports in immigration tracking discussion board. Reportedly, Indian EB-2 demand was so unprecedented that State Department received Indian EB-2 visa number requests about 150 per day between November 10 through November 20, causing its action to stop releasing any numbers effective 11/20/2013. Reportedly, State Department allocated 15,000 EB-2 visas for Indians in August and September alone using preadjudicated EB-485 cases. A lot of these cases are reportedly Indian EB-3 cases which had been upgraded to EB-2.
At this point, no firm predication can be made, but reportedly there is some possibility that Indian EB-2 may return to August 2008 cut-off date in August or September 2014, meanwhile the worldwide EB-3 can move backward before the end of FY 2014 if demand increases next year.

[qesehmk]

Zz - as usual the retrogression is temporary until Jun/Jul when it additional numbers will become available. By now this pattern is quite clear.

I sure hope this turns out to be case of conservative lawyer speak. I would be so disappointed if the CO dates do not touch 2009 by end of FY 2014.

11/27/2013: India EB-2 Number Became Unavailable Effective 11/20/2013 for November Visa Bulletin Pending Cases

AILA reports that no additional EB-2 numbers was allocated for EB-2 India for I-485 adjudications in November 2013. This confirms reports in immigration tracking discussion board. Reportedly, Indian EB-2 demand was so unprecedented that State Department received Indian EB-2 visa number requests about 150 per day between November 10 through November 20, causing its action to stop releasing any numbers effective 11/20/2013. Reportedly, State Department allocated 15,000 EB-2 visas for Indians in August and September alone using preadjudicated EB-485 cases. A lot of these cases are reportedly Indian EB-3 cases which had been upgraded to EB-2.
At this point, no firm predication can be made, but reportedly there is some possibility that Indian EB-2 may return to August 2008 cut-off date in August or September 2014, meanwhile the worldwide EB-3 can move backward before the end of FY 2014 if demand increases next year.


2013-Q4 PERM Data Released. (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/docs/py2013/PERM_FY2013_Q4.xlsx)

FY-2013 Summary:
Total:44,152
Certified:35,203
Den/Withd:8,949 20.3%
INDIA:20,930 59.5%
CHINA:2,135
MEXICO:718
PHIL:928
ROW:10,492 29.8%

IND account for 59.5% of total PERM approvals in 2013.
Total ROW approvals dropped below 30%
Veni - Thanks. I was going through the data and what struck me is that the median wage is 81K-105K range i.e. approx 93K. There are very few below 60K and a ton of them above 100K too. So the broader range is as high as $1M. That's pretty darn good. Just goes to show how much skill gap there probably is in the labor market.

As per the PERM data, the data is simply outstanding for all backlogged countries. What it shows is that there is 36% drop in PERM approvals compared to prior year. For ROW the drop is even worse - 40%. So this partly explains breakneck speed of EB3ROW date movement. Also this is a very good reason why EB2I is going to have another great year despite having less quota number compared to last year. I will update the header over the weekend.

[Pundit Arjun]

Thanks for taking your time to provide the info and also deciding to update the header, Q. Eagerly looking forward for your weekend update. Hope you will give a ballpark (as always) as to where you would see the EB2I dates in June/July.
More specifically, am eager to know if I will get GC this year (PD + 5 years) :cool:

[tomhagen]

I see this as very good sign for EB2. Reason is drop in PERM approvals eventually leads to less porting. So in next two years statusquo will be re instantiated

[vizcard]

I see this as very good sign for EB2. Reason is drop in PERM approvals eventually leads to less porting. So in next two years statusquo will be re instantiated

more immediately it means more spillover for backlogged countries

[CleanSock]

I am sorry I didn't get the meaning of status quo here. Can someone explain it to me?

Thanks



I see this as very good sign for EB2. Reason is drop in PERM approvals eventually leads to less porting. So in next two years statusquo will be re instantiated

[tomhagen]

Well two years before porting was minimal and majority of the EB2 numbers were consumed by original EB2 filers. Status Quo is that point

[gkjppp]

Zz - as usual the retrogression is temporary until Jun/Jul when it additional numbers will become available. By now this pattern is quite clear.



Veni - Thanks. I was going through the data and what struck me is that the median wage is 81K-105K range i.e. approx 93K. There are very few below 60K and a ton of them above 100K too. So the broader range is as high as $1M. That's pretty darn good. Just goes to show how much skill gap there probably is in the labor market.

As per the PERM data, the data is simply outstanding for all backlogged countries. What it shows is that there is 36% drop in PERM approvals compared to prior year. For ROW the drop is even worse - 40%. So this partly explains breakneck speed of EB3ROW date movement. Also this is a very good reason why EB2I is going to have another great year despite having less quota number compared to last year. I will update the header over the weekend.

By 2014 sep EB2I dates will be around Sep-Dec 2009. In 2015 you could see definite forward movement for EB2I(i mean to say it may cross May 2010 date).Current date Nov 2004 might not stay for longer time, it should move to 2007 atleast by apr'2014.Its amazing EB3I inventory decreasing faster than EB2I. As everyone know Jan'2014 485 Inventory may give clear picture for rest of year pattern.

[willywonka]

Q,
I have a question about the statement below from your post on the first page.
There was EB2ROW backlog of about 8k at the beginning of last FY that doesn't exist this year. So, if everything else is more or less the same, shouldn't the overall spillover be the same as last year ?


This year i.e. 2014, there will be 10K extra visas from FB that will be used in EB category. Last year that number was 18K. So in 2014, the movement of EB2I should be somewhat less than last year - if everything else being equal.

[qesehmk]

Willy - That number this year is 4-5K if you look at the latest 485 inventory. (assuming you want to draw line at Jun 2008 for EB2I).

Sorry i have stopped doing manual calculations. So cant really answer the second question. However to vaguely answer your question - Is everything else really equal? e.g. EB1 EB2ROW consumption. Porting. EB5 consumption.


Q,
I have a question about the statement below from your post on the first page.
There was EB2ROW backlog of about 8k at the beginning of last FY that doesn't exist this year. So, if everything else is more or less the same, shouldn't the overall spillover be the same as last year ?


This year i.e. 2014, there will be 10K extra visas from FB that will be used in EB category. Last year that number was 18K. So in 2014, the movement of EB2I should be somewhat less than last year - if everything else being equal.

[qesehmk]

Header updated.

[CleanSock]

Thanks for the explanation!


Well two years before porting was minimal and majority of the EB2 numbers were consumed by original EB2 filers. Status Quo is that point

[veni001]

Zz - as usual the retrogression is temporary until Jun/Jul when it additional numbers will become available. By now this pattern is quite clear.


Veni - Thanks. I was going through the data and what struck me is that the median wage is 81K-105K range i.e. approx 93K. There are very few below 60K and a ton of them above 100K too. So the broader range is as high as $1M. That's pretty darn good. Just goes to show how much skill gap there probably is in the labor market.

As per the PERM data, the data is simply outstanding for all backlogged countries. What it shows is that there is 36% drop in PERM approvals compared to prior year. For ROW the drop is even worse - 40%. So this partly explains breakneck speed of EB3ROW date movement. Also this is a very good reason why EB2I is going to have another great year despite having less quota number compared to last year. I will update the header over the weekend.

Q,
I am not quite sure about the prospects for EB2 backlogs for 2014, offcourse FY2013 PERM statistics looks promising but number of I-140 receipts and approvals skyrocketed for the same period. I did not get a chance to analyze that data yet, this is something you don't want to miss for your forecasting model.

[qesehmk]

Q,
I am not quite sure about the prospects for EB2 backlogs for 2014, offcourse FY2013 PERM statistics looks promising but number of I-140 receipts and approvals skyrocketed for the same period. I did not get a chance to analyze that data yet, this is something you don't want to miss for your forecasting model.

Veni you are right. There were 68K approvals in 2012 vs 81K in 2013. But the difference could easily be attributed to rapid advancement in EB3-ROW dates as well as good movement in EB2I dates.

140 is a tricky data to build demand model on because it contains data from backlogged and current categories and its very difficult to separate those two. Without such separation spillover prediction is impossible.

PERM on the othre hand does come sliced by country and looking at salary data one can at least make some intelligent guesses about EB2 vs EB3 split. That's why PERM data is more reliable in predicting future demand than I-140. Makes sense?

p.s. - BTW here is 140 receipts story - it fell to alltime low in Nov 2009 to 55K annual approvals, then in Jun 2011 it reached all time high of 89K per year. then it again fell in 2012 Jun to 68K and now this year in Jun it was 81K annual. At least I can't figure out a way to correlate that to future demand. That's why I would rather base future demand off of PERM. To be honest - that too is imperfect but better than doing it using 140 data.

[helooo]

When will we see demand data?

[qesehmk]

Heloo - there is a calendar in the menu above. I had creating recurring events that are useful for EB immigrants. One of the events was monthly data. So check that out. It is aproximate but will give you rough idea.


When will we see demand data?

[kkruna]

visa bulleting for Jan (html address needs to be corrected on travel.state.gov link):
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6228.html

NOW THE LINK ADDRESS ON TRAVEL.STATE.GOV IS CORRECTED...

[imdeng]

So the Jan bulletin is out. As expected, no movement in EB2-I. One month movement in EB2-C.

The whopper is that EB3-ROW/C/M keeps running - now to 01-APR-2012. Seriously - how low is EB3 density post 07/07 that they have not yet have enough inventory after pushing PD by 5 years in past few months!! Not that I mind - this is indirectly good news for everybody. There is not even any future guidance like last VB.

Poor EB3-P, they are stuck with 1 month movement when the rest of EB3 (except I of course) is having a party.

[tomhagen]

But in long run this will be good for EB3 I. According to the last inventory (published in Oct), EB3 ROW has 13,756 cases, where as demand is just 260. If you see other forums like trackitt, people are bashing EB3 I to EB2 I porting. But I believe that is nothing when compared with porting in ROW category. So it makes me think that EB3 ROW doesn't have enough inventory. Eventually it will start giving the spill over which goes to most retrogressed in that area i.e. EB3 I. Hence this is a good sign for EB3 I folks to cheer.

[qesehmk]

But in long run this will be good for EB3 I. According to the last inventory (published in Oct), EB3 ROW has 13,756 cases, where as demand is just 260. If you see other forums like trackitt, people are bashing EB3 I to EB2 I porting. But I believe that is nothing when compared with porting in ROW category. So it makes me think that EB3 ROW doesn't have enough inventory. Eventually it will start giving the spill over which goes to most retrogressed in that area i.e. EB3 I. Hence this is a sign for EB3 I folks to cheer.
Totally agree Tom. I believe this will happen sooner rather than later. IMHO next year we should see EB3I receive spillover!!

[imdeng]

Well - my hunch is that the rapid movement in EB3-ROW will reduce the porting into EB2-ROW. That would allow EB2-I to get a larger horizontal spillover since EB2-ROW demand will reduce. If the incoming rate for EB3-ROW is low enough then yes EB3-I might see some spillover in future - but EB2-I will see the positive impact before EB3-I will IMO.

For EB3-I to receive spillover, we need PD movement of more than an year from here, all accumulated inventory (however small) to be wiped out AND the rate of incoming demand to be lower than quota. It can happen - but there are too many conditions. Plus - if job market improves and hiring picks up, all bets of off. 2014 is expected to have more growth in the economy.


Totally agree Tom. I believe this will happen sooner rather than later. IMHO next year we should see EB3I receive spillover!!

[tomhagen]

Couldn't agree more :). I am desperately waiting for the demand and first quarter inventory. Any idea when we are going to see those ?

[tomhagen]

Agree with you some extent. But you see the number of cases registered in trackitt for EB3 ROW starting 2012, I observed a significant down trend. Ofcourse not every user will register in trackitt. But I generally assume 8% of users will end up in trackitt. That always gave me more or less close to accurate numbers. So overall porting is ruining every equation we are following till now to predict the movement. At a certain point of time EB3 ROW also will be like EB3 C.

IMHO if EB3 categories are moving forward faster than EB2, people will start laughing at us :D

[qesehmk]

I think you are right on porting. Right now we don't even know how much EB3ROW porting exists. Perhaps the final 2013 numbers will give some indications.

As per EB3ROW movement - the speed at which dates moved and are continuing to move indicate EB3ROW will be current next year. Which also means EB3I could very likely receive spillover.

I agree about job market and all. So we can watch out for PERMs. But given the 2013 PERM data - I wouldn't say with confidence that 2014 will be drastically different.

Well - my hunch is that the rapid movement in EB3-ROW will reduce the porting into EB2-ROW. That would allow EB2-I to get a larger horizontal spillover since EB2-ROW demand will reduce. If the incoming rate for EB3-ROW is low enough then yes EB3-I might see some spillover in future - but EB2-I will see the positive impact before EB3-I will IMO.

For EB3-I to receive spillover, we need PD movement of more than an year from here, all accumulated inventory (however small) to be wiped out AND the rate of incoming demand to be lower than quota. It can happen - but there are too many conditions. Plus - if job market improves and hiring picks up, all bets of off. 2014 is expected to have more growth in the economy.

[imdeng]

I am stunned frankly with the speed of EB3ROW movement. When EB2-IC inventory accumulation happened, we had a pretty good idea how many folks will show up every month (sigh - how I miss Spec - /sigh) and the actual numbers were in the ball park. EB3ROW OTOH is moving beyond the wildest speculations and even now does not seem to be stopping. It is unprecedented.


I think you are right on porting. Right now we don't even know how much EB3ROW porting exists. Perhaps the final 2013 numbers will give some indications.

As per EB3ROW movement - the speed at which dates moved and are continuing to move indicate EB3ROW will be current next year. Which also means EB3I could very likely receive spillover.

I agree about job market and all. So we can watch out for PERMs. But given the 2013 PERM data - I wouldn't say with confidence that 2014 will be drastically different.

[MeraGC1]

Hi,
Sorry to post this here. Moderators, please move this to appropriate thread

My MIL visited and stayed with us for 6 months on B2 visa. She left US at the end of October 2013. She is planning to visit us in Jan 2014 for 3 months. The gap between her last exit and entry will be 2 months. Will this cause any issues at POE?

Does anyone have similar experience?

Thanks in advance

[qesehmk]

This happened with my friend's mom who they didn't quite refuse entry but asked to leave US in 2 days and she did. So your MIL can take her chances. But it would be a good idea to wait 6 months.


Hi,
Sorry to post this here. Moderators, please move this to appropriate thread

My MIL visited and stayed with us for 6 months on B2 visa. She left US at the end of October 2013. She is planning to visit us in Jan 2014 for 3 months. The gap between her last exit and entry will be 2 months. Will this cause any issues at POE?

Does anyone have similar experience?

Thanks in advance

[imdeng]

Unless it is an emergency, why would you want to chance it. A 6 month gap between visits is suggested especially when someone has just finished the entire allowed duration of the last visit. A visit so soon is likely to trigger secondary inspection with questions raised on whether the person is "visiting" or "living" in the country. It is not illegal per se - but goes against the underlying assumptions of B1/B2 visa - that you live somewhere else and are only visiting the US.

If, however, there are extenuating circumstances - health issues for example - then it might work out. I, personally, would not want to take the risk.

Hi,
Sorry to post this here. Moderators, please move this to appropriate thread

My MIL visited and stayed with us for 6 months on B2 visa. She left US at the end of October 2013. She is planning to visit us in Jan 2014 for 3 months. The gap between her last exit and entry will be 2 months. Will this cause any issues at POE?

Does anyone have similar experience?

Thanks in advance

[qesehmk]

Guys as per the VB goes here is a gist:
1. EB2I is not a surprise. The dates will remain retrogressed until Q4 of USCIS year 2014 i.e. until Jul.
2. EB2C is not a surprise. The date will likely move 1 month at a time.
3. EB3ROWCM is certainly a surprise. The movement from 2011 Oct to Apr 2012 is a big one and it indicates that EB3ROW most likely is on way to become current next year. Good news for EB3I.

[bzabza]

Guys as per the VB goes here is a gist:
1. EB2I is not a surprise. The dates will remain retrogressed until Q4 of USCIS year 2014 i.e. until Jul.
2. EB2C is not a surprise. The date will likely move 1 month at a time.
3. EB3ROWCM is certainly a surprise. The movement from 2011 Oct to Apr 2012 is a big one and it indicates that EB3ROW most likely is on way to become current next year. Good news for EB3I.


Qesehmk & form members - My priority date is July-21-2008. Will it be current in July 2014 visa bulletin?

Appreciate your answer.

[imdeng]

You will be current in FY2014. July-Aug-Sept 2014 are your months. It is likely that you should be current for the July bulletin - but if not July then Aug for sure. Assuming that everything goes according to plan of course.

Qesehmk & form members - My priority date is July-21-2008. Will it be current in July 2014 visa bulletin?

Appreciate your answer.

[gkjppp]

You will be current in FY2014. July-Aug-Sept 2014 are your months. It is likely that you should be current for the July bulletin - but if not July then Aug for sure. Assuming that everything goes according to plan of course.
Guru's,

Looks like few lucky EB2I guys are still getting approved...Officially retro should start on 12/1.... Now 12/16. I am happy for them. But whats going on any Info?

Lastest approval on Trackitt URL
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1359261907/finally-approved-eb2-i/page/last_page

[helooo]

Hi Gurus,
What is the best scenario for CO to move EB2I dates in third quarter (April,May,June)?Can he apply SOFAD in third quarter?
Thanks!

[Jagan01]

Hi Gurus,
What is the best scenario for CO to move EB2I dates in third quarter (April,May,June)?Can he apply SOFAD in third quarter?
Thanks!

I am not a Guru but will still reply.
I do not see movement before Jul 2014 visa bulletin. But the jump would be significant when it moves. Hopefully it jumps to Mar 2009 in Sep 2014.

I feel the dates will move for EB2I in the Aug 2014 bulletin. Until then no movement. MY 2 cents.

[Maksimus]

Guru's,

Looks like few lucky EB2I guys are still getting approved...Officially retro should start on 12/1.... Now 12/16. I am happy for them. But whats going on any Info?

Lastest approval on Trackitt URL
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1359261907/finally-approved-eb2-i/page/last_page

gkjppp - I'm the one who started the thread when I got approved. I have explained in that same thread why I was approved in spite of numbers being retrogressed. I'm posting it here again. Hope this helps.

"I have explained it in one of my posts above in this thread. If USCIS allotted a visa number, then the case is approved as long as the result is not a denial. What I have heard is, anyone who received the mass RFE of June 14 was allotted a number.

I know for a fact that my case came out of extended review at the end of October (this info thanks for CM) and my guess is that that is when a number must have been allotted to my case. If you remember, the dates were current at that time."

[gkjppp]

gkjppp - I'm the one who started the post when I got approved. I have explained in that same thread why I was approved in spite of numbers being retrogressed. I'm posting it here again. Hope this helps.

"I have explained it in one of my posts above in this thread. If USCIS allotted a visa number, then the case is approved as long as the result is not a denial. What I have heard is, anyone who received the mass RFE of June 14 was allotted a number.

I know for a fact that my case came out of extended review at the end of October (this info thanks for CM) and my guess is that that is when a number must have been allotted to my case. If you remember, the dates were current at that time."

Good to know. so mostly RFE means GC( if you are current).

[Maksimus]

Good to know. so mostly RFE means GC( if you are current).

I wouldn't say 100% but very high probability, all other things being equal.

[Anish05]

Hi Guru's,
I am silent reader for this forum, and this forum will help a lot of users. Please advice my status.
My 9th year H1B/H4 was completed Oct 2013 and my wife used her EAD to join full time employee since April 2013 and I’m still with GC employer as contractor using EAD valid until Jan 2015. ( 25 Feb 2009-EB2- GC filled 2012 and we used AP couple of times).
My contract was tentatively ending Jan 2014 and Client is offering full time position from Feb . I can not to move other distant places due to my health issue/2 Kids education/wife full time job.
1. Shall I join full time employee using EAD and to file AC21 or to wait until Sep 2014 by luck GC. if not will file AC21, is it ok to wait? I have to find myself new attorney/revoke G28 form etc..
2. GC employer does not know about my full time offer and take sick leave from GC sponsor without filing AC21 until Sep 2014, if there is no GC then will file AC21 with new Attorney with new client details.( I have to pay all expenses).
3. Is it ok to run payroll 2 places for 2 month due to full time/contract job?
The whole process will not affect my wife status since she is sponsoring family health insurance etc.. Which is the best idea to wait Sep 2014 to find another contract job or to join full time to test luck for GC?

[Anish05]

Hi Guru's,
I am silent reader for this forum, and this forum will help a lot of users. Please advice my status.
My 9th year H1B/H4 was completed Oct 2013 and my wife used her EAD to join full time employee since April 2013 and I’m still with GC employer as contractor using EAD valid until Jan 2015. ( 25 Feb 2009-EB2- GC filled 2012 and we used AP couple of times).
My contract was tentatively ending Jan 2014 and Client is offering full time position from Feb . I can not to move other distant places due to my health issue/2 Kids education/wife full time job.
1. Shall I join full time employee using EAD and to file AC21 or to wait until Sep 2014 by luck GC. if not will file AC21, is it ok to wait? I have to find myself new attorney/revoke G28 form etc..
2. GC employer does not know about my full time offer and take sick leave from GC sponsor without filing AC21 until Sep 2014, if there is no GC then will file AC21 with new Attorney with new client details.( I have to pay all expenses).
3. Is it ok to run payroll 2 places for 2 month due to full time/contract job?
The whole process will not affect my wife status since she is sponsoring family health insurance etc.. Which is the best idea to wait Sep 2014 to find another contract job or to join full time to test luck for GC?

[Jonty Rhodes]

Sorry for posting this question on the wrong forum. I am just posting it here as it is an emergency and this thread has the maximum traffic. I will remove it once someone answers it.

My wife needs to travel to India in emergency. She is leaving tomorrow. She is on H4 visa. I am on H1B visa. I am not traveling with her. My and my wife's visa expired in June, 2013. We filed the extension and we both have approved I-797, valid till 2016. Now, if she travels outside US, I understand that she has to have her visa stamped before she comes back. But the only problem with that process is that my passport is expiring in May, 2014 and has less than 6 months left on it. Can my wife get her H4 visa stamped when I have less than 6 months left on the expiry of my passport?

The way, I am thinking of doing this is, I will let my wife go to India. I will apply for Tatkal passport in USA. If I get it than I can either send her the copy of my passport and have her H4 visa stamped or I can personally go there and have our H1B and H4 visa stamped. If I can't get the Tatkal passport than I will apply through regular process and either send my passport copy or go personally. I think that's the best possible choice.

My questions are,

1) Does anyone know if my wife can get her H4 stamped when my passport is valid for less than 6 months only?

2) Can I travel to India and get my passport renewed in India, instead of renewing it in USA?

Any quick answer will be appreciated as we don't have enough time left on our hands.

[qesehmk]

Jonty relax - I am pretty sure she can stamp and her stamping doesn't require your passport with certain expiry date. All she needs is valid 797 + her own passport in good standing.

Second - it is a good idea to do your passport work here in US rather than in India

On another note I also believe that Indian passports are valid 6 months beyond the expiry shown on the passport. You may want to send email to SFO office (or whatever you are closest to). My experience was good with them.


Sorry for posting this question on the wrong forum. I am just posting it here as it is an emergency and this thread has the maximum traffic. I will remove it once someone answers it.

My wife needs to travel to India in emergency. She is leaving tomorrow. She is on H4 visa. I am on H1B visa. I am not traveling with her. My and my wife's visa expired in June, 2013. We filed the extension and we both have approved I-797, valid till 2016. Now, if she travels outside US, I understand that she has to have her visa stamped before she comes back. But the only problem with that process is that my passport is expiring in May, 2014 and has less than 6 months left on it. Can my wife get her H4 visa stamped when I have less than 6 months left on the expiry of my passport?

The way, I am thinking of doing this is, I will let my wife go to India. I will apply for Tatkal passport in USA. If I get it than I can either send her the copy of my passport and have her H4 visa stamped or I can personally go there and have our H1B and H4 visa stamped. If I can't get the Tatkal passport than I will apply through regular process and either send my passport copy or go personally. I think that's the best possible choice.

My questions are,

1) Does anyone know if my wife can get her H4 stamped when my passport is valid for less than 6 months only?

2) Can I travel to India and get my passport renewed in India, instead of renewing it in USA?

Any quick answer will be appreciated as we don't have enough time left on our hands.

[manubhai]

Good to see you after a long time, Jonty!
1. Your passport expiry shouldn't have ANY bearing on whether the H4 visa can be stamped or not. I am very confident about that because I've been through it.
2. Yes, you can travel to India. But with what I hear, its easier to get it done here, even if it takes a little longer. (Depends on where you live in US and in India). If you are paranoid (like I am), you might want to wait for your wife to come back before handing over your passport to the Indian embassy in US - for the unlikely scenario that you might need to travel to India in emergency when your wife is there.



My questions are,

1) Does anyone know if my wife can get her H4 stamped when my passport is valid for less than 6 months only?

2) Can I travel to India and get my passport renewed in India, instead of renewing it in USA?

Any quick answer will be appreciated as we don't have enough time left on our hands.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Thanks Q for the prompt reply.

Good to know that my wife can still get her H4 stamped even when my passport is valid for less than 6 months. It seems like manubhai has also gone through it. I guess that answers my question whether she can have her H4 stamped or not. My wife's passport expires in June, 2015 so still has more than a year.

Regarding my 2nd question, I thought the same that it may be easier to get the passport renewed in USA rather than India. But if my wife can have her H4 stamped without any problem, than I don't have to rush to renew my passport.

Correct me if I am wrong, but problem will only arise if I go to India without renewing my passport and try to get my H1B stamped because for that my passport should have more than 6 months validity, right?

Q, what you are saying regarding Indian Passports being valid for more than 6 months beyond their expiry seems to be true. I found the list of countries on State Department Website who extent passport validity for an additional 6 months after expiration.

http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/104770.pdf

From what I understand is that this validity beyond 6 months of expiry, only applies when you are entering USA at the port of entry. Do you think it would also apply if I go to India without renewing my passport and try to get my H1B stamped in Consulate? Would the US Consulate stamp my H1B when my passport is less than 6 months valid?

[Jonty Rhodes]

Good to see you after a long time, Jonty!
1. Your passport expiry shouldn't have ANY bearing on whether the H4 visa can be stamped or not. I am very confident about that because I've been through it.
2. Yes, you can travel to India. But with what I hear, its easier to get it done here, even if it takes a little longer. (Depends on where you live in US and in India). If you are paranoid (like I am), you might want to wait for your wife to come back before handing over your passport to the Indian embassy in US - for the unlikely scenario that you might need to travel to India in emergency when your wife is there.

Thanks a lot manubhai for the quick reply.

1. I think I will then go ahead and take an appointment for my wife to have her H4 visa stamped with the Consulate in India. In that case, I don't think I need to rush to renew my passport.
2. But if it comes to a point that I also need to make a quick trip to India, than I think it will be a problem going there without renewing my passport. I think I can still come back to USA even if my passport has less than 6 months validity as Q just mentioned in his answer. But do you think I can get my H1B stamped in Consulate with my passport being valid for less than 6 months?

[qesehmk]

From what I understand is that this validity beyond 6 months of expiry, only applies when you are entering USA at the port of entry. Do you think it would also apply if I go to India without renewing my passport and try to get my H1B stamped in Consulate? Would the US Consulate stamp my H1B when my passport is less than 6 months valid?
See that I am not sure about. And that is something that I wouldn't recommend to take a chance on. So perhaps sending an email to Mumbai Consulate (assume you are from Mumbai) would be a good idea.

[Jonty Rhodes]

See that I am not sure about. And that is something that I wouldn't recommend to take a chance on. So perhaps sending an email to Mumbai Consulate (assume you are from Mumbai) would be a good idea.

Thanks Q. I am under Mumbai Consulate. I would either call them or send an e-mail. Thanks a lot again.

[Anish05]

Hi Jonty,

I just renewed my indian passport in SFO even I have expiry date until July 2014. I got new passport with in 15 days in SFO, Please ask me any questions related to passport I will help you. They said before expiry one year you can renewal any time.

I was travel to india 2 month ago, they stamped until my passport expiry date only even though have valid AP for another 2 month.

Thanks,
Anish

[qesehmk]

Anish - you may want to rephrase your question. It is hard to understand.

From what I understand - if I were you - I would.

1. Not wait until next september since who know where the dates will move and even if they do then 6 month requirement post GC etc.
2. Not be afraid of 2 payrolls. You can do as many jobs on EAD as you want. I do not think there is any limit - as long as your employers are ok with it. Legally you are also not supposed to disclose voluntarily to them how many other jobs you are doing. But if they ask and you lie - that could be a potential liability between you and your employers.


Hi Guru's,
I am silent reader for this forum, and this forum will help a lot of users. Please advice my status.
My 9th year H1B/H4 was completed Oct 2013 and my wife used her EAD to join full time employee since April 2013 and I’m still with GC employer as contractor using EAD valid until Jan 2015. ( 25 Feb 2009-EB2- GC filled 2012 and we used AP couple of times).
My contract was tentatively ending Jan 2014 and Client is offering full time position from Feb . I can not to move other distant places due to my health issue/2 Kids education/wife full time job.
1. Shall I join full time employee using EAD and to file AC21 or to wait until Sep 2014 by luck GC. if not will file AC21, is it ok to wait? I have to find myself new attorney/revoke G28 form etc..
2. GC employer does not know about my full time offer and take sick leave from GC sponsor without filing AC21 until Sep 2014, if there is no GC then will file AC21 with new Attorney with new client details.( I have to pay all expenses).
3. Is it ok to run payroll 2 places for 2 month due to full time/contract job?
The whole process will not affect my wife status since she is sponsoring family health insurance etc.. Which is the best idea to wait Sep 2014 to find another contract job or to join full time to test luck for GC?

[Jonty Rhodes]

See that I am not sure about. And that is something that I wouldn't recommend to take a chance on. So perhaps sending an email to Mumbai Consulate (assume you are from Mumbai) would be a good idea.

Here is an update Q.

So my wife left for India today. I dropped her at O'hare. She is flying Air India as that was the earliest flight we could get. I asked Air India staff at the check-in counter and explained my situation. They said that as long as I have a return ticket before the passport expiry date, I should be fine and I will be able to board the aircraft.

I also called the Mumbai Consulate yesterday and talked with them. The lady who I spoke with told me that since India is exempt from the list of countries that require 6 month validity for passport, I should be fine applying for an H1B stamping and get it stamped. I asked her to send me an e-mail after I submitted a written query just to have an e-mail proof. I got the response within 4 hours and there was a link in the reply which took me to the first question.

http://www.ustraveldocs.com/in/in-gen-faq.asp#gen1

Q.1 How long does my passport have to be valid in order to apply for a U. S. visa?
A.1 You must possess a passport valid for travel to the United States with a validity date at least six months beyond your intended period of stay in the United States (unless country-specific agreements provide exemptions).

As mentioned above, India is exempt from this requirement.

I also asked my immigration attorney and he said the same thing that 6 month of passport validity does not apply to Indian Citizens and I should be good to go for stamping. However, he wasn't sure whether airlines will allow me to board the aircraft with passport which is valid less than 6 months.

I asked TSA people at O'hare today and they said that there is no issue with them. I believe that CBP office at POE while coming back to US should not create any issue either. I found out that Mumbai Consulate will stamp my passport with visa that is valid till the I-797 expiration but at the POE, CBP office will issue I-94 up to Passport expiration date only and I can either a) get I-94 corrected b) apply for extension of I-94 with USCIS or c) leave and re-enter US to get a new I-94.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/01/02/how-does-passport-expiration-date-affect-visa-entry-or-extension-of-status/

So, overall it seems that I am good to go from Airline standpoint (at least while flying from US), TSA, Mumbai Consulate and CBP officer at POE. Once I reach my destination in India, I should not have any problem clearing the immigration being an Indian national, even though the passport will be valid for less than 6 months. My only worry is what if the Immigration Officer in India does not let me board the aircraft while coming back to US? What if he asks me to get my passport renewed first? I can carry the State Department Document which shows that India is exempt from that 6 month requirement but I am really worried whether the Immigration Officers in India would listen or care. Also, I am little worried about the problem in case if the Air India staff at Indian airport does not allow me to fly back to US, citing passport validity less than 6 months. I have read several experiences online on various forums, and they were hit or miss. Some people were allowed to travel while some were not. So decision was at the discretion of an Immigration Officer or sometimes Airline staff.

I have thought about following options on this situation. I would really appreciate it somebody can give their input and tell me what's the most feasible option in their opinion.

Option 1 - Don't go to India at all as it is too risky. Send all the documents to spouse. Let her finish her H4 stamping before she heads back to US. Problem - I won't be able to attend the family medical emergency.

Option 2 - Go to India. Get H1B stamped. Try to come back to US. Problem - Indian Immigration Officer or the Airline staff in India, may deny the travel citing passport validity.

Option 3 - Go to India. Get H1B stamped. Apply for a new passport in India in Tatkal scheme. Get old passport with valid visa stapled to a new passport. Problem - Will be too long process and it has to go smooth at every step to work.

Option 4 - Go to India. Apply for a new passport in India in Tatkal scheme. Get H1B stamped in a new passport. Problem - Again can be too long process. Have to wait to take dates for H1B stamping till new passport arrives which can take time.

Option 5 - Apply for renewal of passport under Tatkal Scheme in Indian Consulate in Chicago. If approved in 1-3 days, this is the best way. Problem - Consulate officer may not approve reason to issue Tatkal passport.

Option 6 - Apply for renewal of passport through regular process with BLS International in Chicago, if attempt at getting Tatkal passport fails. Problem - Regular processing of passport takes at least 4-6 weeks.

Any input would be appreciated.

[Kanmani]

Jonty,

I am confused with what you have described in option No.3. What is that extra stapling process?

You can travel with old passport + US visa stamp + New extended passport .

[qesehmk]

Jonty,

I am confused with what you have described in option No.3. What is that extra stapling process?

You can travel with old passport + US visa stamp + New extended passport .
He is just referring to physically stapling two passports together. He meant that getting H1 stamped in old while waiting for new in india will be risky.

My personal opinion is that jonty you are better off sticking to old passport. And then get it done in US when you come back or before you leave. All the best and hope things turn out ok for the medical emergency in family.

[Jonty Rhodes]

He is just referring to physically stapling two passports together. He meant that getting H1 stamped in old while waiting for new in india will be risky.

My personal opinion is that jonty you are better off sticking to old passport. And then get it done in US when you come back or before you leave. All the best and hope things turn out ok for the medical emergency in family.

Thanks Q. I have decided to try for Tatkal passport in US first. If they won't allow me, then I will just go ahead and go to India with an old passport, get my stamping done, HOPEFULLY able to come back and apply for renewal. I also think these are the safest options.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Jonty,

I am confused with what you have described in option No.3. What is that extra stapling process?

You can travel with old passport + US visa stamp + New extended passport .

Kanmani, Q is right. I was talking about physically stapling the passports together.

[AC_1980]

When applying for tatkal service for passport renewal in US, you can cite the family emergency as the primary reason for the tatkal request. my wife recently requested tatkal service at NYC consulate, her father had very serious health issues. when we explained the medical emergency to BLS, they did absolutely nothing to assist (talk about sitting long hours at BLS office and getting bounced around without it getting anywhere), except for telling us to go speak with consulate directly. the folks at the consulate were very understanding.

[FirstTimeFiler]

I-485 Notice Date: 09-06-2013 (3 months back), EB2-I. I received RFE on 11-26-2013. My employer tell me today that I need to get some third-party attorney and ask them to prepare required documentation who will represent me for this RFE and my employer will provide required PERM documents for that third party attorney, because my employer said that I need to mail the papers not them, so I need to hire some third party attorney to take care of this. I thought this would be a simple RFE, just EVL. But my employer sounds complicated. Below are the details of my RFE.

"you must submit a currently dated letter from your intended permanent employer, describing your present job duties and position in the rganization, your proffered position(if different from your current one), the date you began employment and the offered salary or wage. This letter should be in the original and signed by an executive or officer of the organization who is authorized to make or confirm an offer of permanent employment. The letter should indicate whether the terms and conditions of your employment-based visa petition(or labor certification) continue to exist."

Gurus please help me. I am little worried about this RFE because, my employer sent all the required papers (EVL and all) 3 months back when they filed for my 485 and dates were current and also now my employer is asking me to hire some other third party attorney.

[isantem]

Are you joking? What is so hard on this RFE? You cand send this by yourself you dont need to hire a third party lawyer. Yes I-485 its your responsability and not employer.

[qesehmk]

FTF - the good news is you are seeing the end of the tunnel. The RFE is not as complicated as you think it is. I agree with isantem that you can handle it yourself but if you want peace of mind then hiring a lawyer is not a bad idea.


I-485 Notice Date: 09-06-2013 (3 months back), EB2-I. I received RFE on 11-26-2013. My employer tell me today that I need to get some third-party attorney and ask them to prepare required documentation who will represent me for this RFE and my employer will provide required PERM documents for that third party attorney, because my employer said that I need to mail the papers not them, so I need to hire some third party attorney to take care of this. I thought this would be a simple RFE, just EVL. But my employer sounds complicated. Below are the details of my RFE.

"you must submit a currently dated letter from your intended permanent employer, describing your present job duties and position in the rganization, your proffered position(if different from your current one), the date you began employment and the offered salary or wage. This letter should be in the original and signed by an executive or officer of the organization who is authorized to make or confirm an offer of permanent employment. The letter should indicate whether the terms and conditions of your employment-based visa petition(or labor certification) continue to exist."

Gurus please help me. I am little worried about this RFE because, my employer sent all the required papers (EVL and all) 3 months back when they filed for my 485 and dates were current and also now my employer is asking me to hire some other third party attorney.

[Jonty Rhodes]

When applying for tatkal service for passport renewal in US, you can cite the family emergency as the primary reason for the tatkal request. my wife recently requested tatkal service at NYC consulate, her father had very serious health issues. when we explained the medical emergency to BLS, they did absolutely nothing to assist (talk about sitting long hours at BLS office and getting bounced around without it getting anywhere), except for telling us to go speak with consulate directly. the folks at the consulate were very understanding.

You were lucky. I went to BLS International in Chicago on 12/23. They told me to go to Chicago Consulate to get a permission to apply for an emergency passport. So I immediately went to Chicago Consulate and I was there in next 10 minutes. I explained the person sitting at the window in consulate about my situation. The person told me that my passport is valid till May and I can travel to India and refused to listen to me. I tried hard but he kept saying that I can travel to India and just flatly refused to listen to me. In between, he left the window and kept saying "next person". I finally left after 15 minutes.

I went back again to explain my situation on 12/24/13 which is today. That same person was there again. I explained that I need to go to India to attend a family emergency and my passport won't be stamped my Mumbai Consulate with H1B visa if I have less than 6 months left. I told them that the airline may also not allow me to travel. I requested him to try and understand my situation. He was very rude. He said that we can't issue permission for emergency passport. He asked me to go to BLS and apply for a regular passport. I told him that it would take 4-6 weeks to get a regular passport and I have to go now but he said that either I have to apply for an emergency passport in India once I reach India or I have to apply for a regular passport through BLS. I again tried to explain him that I have a very short period to go to India, apply for a new passport and then apply for stamping and if I don't get a new passport in India, I will be stuck since the consulate won't stamp my passport with H1B.

I asked him what is the reason they can't issue an emergency passport. I told him that 1) I have all the documents required 2) I have less than 6 months left on my passport 3) I have to apply for H1B stamping in India and 4) I have a genuine reason to get an emergency passport to attend a family medical emergency. Heck, I even showed him the letter from my employer allowing me to leave for India and doctor's certificate from India about the medical emergency. I asked him that where is the issue here? I meet all the criteria to get an emergency passport and there is no reason why you can't issue an emergency passport.

I asked him what is the reason to reject? He kept telling me the same thing that my passport is valid and I can travel to India right now and apply for emergency passport in India. I asked him to at least give me a letter from Consulate so that I can go to India and apply for passport there but he said, we don't give any letters. When I asked him that is there any way to talk with the Consulate General, he told me to go website and call that number.

I felt like going behind the counter, holding his collar and giving him a tight slap. I was in a mood to fight with him but I did not since I want to try to go there one more time after Christmas to make the last attempt. These people are supposed to help us but they make our life hell. I felt that because it is Christmas, they don't want to do any work and if I apply for emergency passport, then it may add more work for them before the holiday. There is no genuine reason for them to deny me an emergency passport. I still can't understand why the consulate can not give me the permission to apply for emergency passport.

Anyways, I will try one last time on 12/26. I am definitely going to fight this time if he rejects me. Is there any other way to escalate this matter? Can I complain to the Indian Ambassador to US about this? I am really upset at these people. There is no basic decency. They don't have any sympathy for someone who is in genuine need. They are bunch of bureaucrats who think that they can do whatever they want because they sit on the other side of window. I am really disappointed. I am also trying to call the Consulate and see if someone else will pick up the phone so I can explain my situation.

[qesehmk]

Jonty - now that the US consulate and everybody has confirmed - why are you restless!! I really don't see any risk now that you confirmed with US consulate in India. Worst case is you come back on AOS. Right? The Airliner can't and shouldn't hold you back as long as your passport has at least 1 valid day left on it.


You were lucky. I went to BLS International in Chicago on 12/23. They told me to go to Chicago Consulate to get a permission to apply for an emergency passport. So I immediately went to Chicago Consulate and I was there in next 10 minutes. I explained the person sitting at the window in consulate about my situation. The person told me that my passport is valid till May and I can travel to India and refused to listen to me. I tried hard but he kept saying that I can travel to India and just flatly refused to listen to me. In between, he left the window and kept saying "next person". I finally left after 15 minutes.

I went back again to explain my situation on 12/24/13 which is today. That same person was there again. I explained that I need to go to India to attend a family emergency and my passport won't be stamped my Mumbai Consulate with H1B visa if I have less than 6 months left. I told them that the airline may also not allow me to travel. I requested him to try and understand my situation. He was very rude. He said that we can't issue permission for emergency passport. He asked me to go to BLS and apply for a regular passport. I told him that it would take 4-6 weeks to get a regular passport and I have to go now but he said that either I have to apply for an emergency passport in India once I reach India or I have to apply for a regular passport through BLS. I again tried to explain him that I have a very short period to go to India, apply for a new passport and then apply for stamping and if I don't get a new passport in India, I will be stuck since the consulate won't stamp my passport with H1B.

I asked him what is the reason they can't issue an emergency passport. I told him that 1) I have all the documents required 2) I have less than 6 months left on my passport 3) I have to apply for H1B stamping in India and 4) I have a genuine reason to get an emergency passport to attend a family medical emergency. Heck, I even showed him the letter from my employer allowing me to leave for India and doctor's certificate from India about the medical emergency. I asked him that where is the issue here? I meet all the criteria to get an emergency passport and there is no reason why you can't issue an emergency passport.

I asked him what is the reason to reject? He kept telling me the same thing that my passport is valid and I can travel to India right now and apply for emergency passport in India. I asked him to at least give me a letter from Consulate so that I can go to India and apply for passport there but he said, we don't give any letters. When I asked him that is there any way to talk with the Consulate General, he told me to go website and call that number.

I felt like going behind the counter, holding his collar and giving him a tight slap. I was in a mood to fight with him but I did not since I want to try to go there one more time after Christmas to make the last attempt. These people are supposed to help us but they make our life hell. I felt that because it is Christmas, they don't want to do any work and if I apply for emergency passport, then it may add more work for them before the holiday. There is no genuine reason for them to deny me an emergency passport. I still can't understand why the consulate can not give me the permission to apply for emergency passport.

Anyways, I will try one last time on 12/26. I am definitely going to fight this time if he rejects me. Is there any other way to escalate this matter? Can I complain to the Indian Ambassador to US about this? I am really upset at these people. There is no basic decency. They don't have any sympathy for someone who is in genuine need. They are bunch of bureaucrats who think that they can do whatever they want because they sit on the other side of window. I am really disappointed. I am also trying to call the Consulate and see if someone else will pick up the phone so I can explain my situation.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Jonty - now that the US consulate and everybody has confirmed - why are you restless!! I really don't see any risk now that you confirmed with US consulate in India. Worst case is you come back on AOS. Right? The Airliner can't and shouldn't hold you back as long as your passport has at least 1 valid day left on it.

Q, I understand that may be I should not be so restless but I will explain where my confusion comes from.

When I called US Consulate in Mumbai first time 5 days ago, they told me that I am allowed to apply for H1B stamping. Then they sent me this link.

http://www.ustraveldocs.com/in/in-gen-faq.asp#gen1

So I was relieved that I will be allowed to apply for H1B stamping.

However, later on I stumbled upon this on US Consulate in Mumbai website when I was trying to look for process of taking a visa interview appointment.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/frequently-asked-questions.html#dam_exp_incor_visas_ppts

The answer to 2nd question mentions clearly that one needs to obtain a new passport before applying for visa or booking an appointment, if the passport is going to expire in less than 6 months.

This confused me because I was getting two different answers here. On one side, I was being told that I will be able to attend the H1B stamping even if my passport validity is less than 6 months. On the other hand, the link on US Consulate, Mumbai website clearly mentions that a new passport needs to be obtained before appearing for an interview if current passport is valid for less than 6 months.

When I asked this to US Consulate in Mumbai, they sent me this reply.
__________________________________________________ ______________________________________________
Dear Mr. XXXXX,

Thank you for writing to the U.S. Visa Service Desk.

We understand that you wish to apply for a U.S. visa and you have a query regarding the passport.

With regards to your query, we would like to inform you that, in order to apply for a visa an applicant needs to have a valid passport. Please note that, India is exempted from the 6 months passport validity rule. Information about the same is provided in the following link "http://cdn.ustraveldocs.com/in/in-gen-faq.asp#gen1". Hence, the applicant may apply for a visa if they have a valid passport. If the applicant is required to apply for a new passport, the Consulate officer will inform about the same.

Additionally, you can follow the link "http://cdn.ustraveldocs.com/in/in-niv-visaapply.asp" to know about the visa application process and the link "http://cdn.ustraveldocs.com/in/in-niv-typework.asp" to know about the work visa.

We hope this answers your query.
Have a pleasant day!

Yours sincerely,
U.S. Visa Service Desk.
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ______

Again, from their answer it seems that I should be ok to apply for H1B stamping but then in the same answer, they say "If the applicant is required to apply for a new passport, the Consulate officer will inform about the same." So now you can see where my confusion comes from.

I tried various forums but I am getting different answers. Some are saying they will allow stamping, some are saying 6 month passport validity is must for stamping. I am also trying to find out a) if I will be able to get a Tatkal passport in India and b) If I can, then how long will it take.

I am also little wary of renewing the passports in India because I have read horror stories of people being stuck for 4-5 months and paying huge amount of bribes to get passports back. I don't know if services have improved recently.

When you said that I can come back on AOS, did you mean that when I come back, I have to extend I-94? I am asking this because I am not on AOS yet. My PD is May, 2011, which has never been current hence no I-485 filed, no EAD or AP, still on H1B.

I had to throw the Airline excuse at the end of our conversation in hope that at least that person sitting behind the window would listen to me one last time which may change his mind, after he completely refused to listen to me yesterday. It seems he did not care regardless of what I told him. In fact, I wonder whether he even listened to me at all because in between our conversation, he continued to talk with the person standing behind him. He already pre-determined that he was not going to give me permission for emergency passport, period. I was very polite during the entire conversations on both days but I guess, giving emergency passports means extra work for them and they were in no mood to work. They were just shooing away people today. I was not the only one. There were multiple people who were in similar emergency situations who were denied for no good reason.

I was never given a good reason in last 2 days why I can't be given emergency passport even though I had all the required documents, had doctor's certificate, had employer's notarized letter and had a genuine reason to get the Tatkal passport. When I went to BLS on 12/23, the person there reviewed all the documents first and told me that my application is full-proof and I should be able to get a permission to apply for Tatkal Passport from Consulate without a problem. But when I went to Consulate, all I was told was to either go to India and apply for new passport or go to BLS and apply for regular passport and wait for 4-6 weeks. They never even bothered to look at my documents. You can't imagine how traumatic and nightmarish this experience was.

[FirstTimeFiler]

Thank you for your reply. Is it common for USCIS to ask EVL within 3 months of notice date? Do you have any links where I can get format of the letter and all the documents, that I need to send as part of RFE response.


FTF - the good news is you are seeing the end of the tunnel. The RFE is not as complicated as you think it is. I agree with isantem that you can handle it yourself but if you want peace of mind then hiring a lawyer is not a bad idea.

[FirstTimeFiler]

I thought so it was a simple RFE, EVL. But my employer is complicating things. Is it common for USCIS to ask EVL within 3 months of notice date? Do you have any links where I can get format of the letter and all the documents, that I need to send as part of RFE response.

Are you joking? What is so hard on this RFE? You cand send this by yourself you dont need to hire a third party lawyer. Yes I-485 its your responsability and not employer.

[qesehmk]

Jonty you have information overload here. Just go by what the US consulate in Mumbai told you. That's the best and final information on this topic.

There is no way an airliner should hold you back with 3-4 months on passport remaining.

As per the Indian staff at consulate - forget them. Don't let your peace of mind go over them. That is something out of our control. But I will say this - I have had nothing but good experience with consulates. But may be because I never went there in person!!!

Good luck. Don't be doubtful just go by what consulate itself told you!! Relax.

p.s. - My bad on AOS. I somehow thought you were waiting on AOS.

Q, I understand that may be I should not be so restless but I will explain where my confusion comes from.

When I called US Consulate in Mumbai first time 5 days ago, they told me that I am allowed to apply for H1B stamping. Then they sent me this link.

http://www.ustraveldocs.com/in/in-gen-faq.asp#gen1

So I was relieved that I will be allowed to apply for H1B stamping.

However, later on I stumbled upon this on US Consulate in Mumbai website when I was trying to look for process of taking a visa interview appointment.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/frequently-asked-questions.html#dam_exp_incor_visas_ppts

The answer to 2nd question mentions clearly that one needs to obtain a new passport before applying for visa or booking an appointment, if the passport is going to expire in less than 6 months.

This confused me because I was getting two different answers here. On one side, I was being told that I will be able to attend the H1B stamping even if my passport validity is less than 6 months. On the other hand, the link on US Consulate, Mumbai website clearly mentions that a new passport needs to be obtained before appearing for an interview if current passport is valid for less than 6 months.

When I asked this to US Consulate in Mumbai, they sent me this reply.
__________________________________________________ ______________________________________________
Dear Mr. XXXXX,

Thank you for writing to the U.S. Visa Service Desk.

We understand that you wish to apply for a U.S. visa and you have a query regarding the passport.

With regards to your query, we would like to inform you that, in order to apply for a visa an applicant needs to have a valid passport. Please note that, India is exempted from the 6 months passport validity rule. Information about the same is provided in the following link "http://cdn.ustraveldocs.com/in/in-gen-faq.asp#gen1". Hence, the applicant may apply for a visa if they have a valid passport. If the applicant is required to apply for a new passport, the Consulate officer will inform about the same.

Additionally, you can follow the link "http://cdn.ustraveldocs.com/in/in-niv-visaapply.asp" to know about the visa application process and the link "http://cdn.ustraveldocs.com/in/in-niv-typework.asp" to know about the work visa.

We hope this answers your query.
Have a pleasant day!

Yours sincerely,
U.S. Visa Service Desk.
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ______

Again, from their answer it seems that I should be ok to apply for H1B stamping but then in the same answer, they say "If the applicant is required to apply for a new passport, the Consulate officer will inform about the same." So now you can see where my confusion comes from.

I tried various forums but I am getting different answers. Some are saying they will allow stamping, some are saying 6 month passport validity is must for stamping. I am also trying to find out a) if I will be able to get a Tatkal passport in India and b) If I can, then how long will it take.

I am also little wary of renewing the passports in India because I have read horror stories of people being stuck for 4-5 months and paying huge amount of bribes to get passports back. I don't know if services have improved recently.

When you said that I can come back on AOS, did you mean that when I come back, I have to extend I-94? I am asking this because I am not on AOS yet. My PD is May, 2011, which has never been current hence no I-485 filed, no EAD or AP, still on H1B.

I had to throw the Airline excuse at the end of our conversation in hope that at least that person sitting behind the window would listen to me one last time which may change his mind, after he completely refused to listen to me yesterday. It seems he did not care regardless of what I told him. In fact, I wonder whether he even listened to me at all because in between our conversation, he continued to talk with the person standing behind him. He already pre-determined that he was not going to give me permission for emergency passport, period. I was very polite during the entire conversations on both days but I guess, giving emergency passports means extra work for them and they were in no mood to work. They were just shooing away people today. I was not the only one. There were multiple people who were in similar emergency situations who were denied for no good reason.

I was never given a good reason in last 2 days why I can't be given emergency passport even though I had all the required documents, had doctor's certificate, had employer's notarized letter and had a genuine reason to get the Tatkal passport. When I went to BLS on 12/23, the person there reviewed all the documents first and told me that my application is full-proof and I should be able to get a permission to apply for Tatkal Passport from Consulate without a problem. But when I went to Consulate, all I was told was to either go to India and apply for new passport or go to BLS and apply for regular passport and wait for 4-6 weeks. They never even bothered to look at my documents. You can't imagine how traumatic and nightmarish this experience was.

[qesehmk]

Of course it is very common. So don't worry at all .... just create your own format. Nice and clean. And give all the information to them signed by your hiring manager or his boss.

Thank you for your reply. Is it common for USCIS to ask EVL within 3 months of notice date? Do you have any links where I can get format of the letter and all the documents, that I need to send as part of RFE response.

[Kanmani]

Jonty,

There have been a lot of changes happened in India in our absence over the years , one good thing I noticed is passport services are outsourced . Regular, non-renewal passports arrive within 2 weeks of interview (yes ).

I hope you could renew it in India within couple of days. All the best!

Q, I too had a bad experience with the consulate here in DC . Exactly the same words "NEXT on line please" with an facial expression which conveyed why/what are you in/doing in this country? .

[venkat]

Hi Anish and Others,

My wife's passport is expiring in June 2014 and I applied for renewal in Atlanta Indian consulate with all the reqd documentation. The processing time says 6-8 weeks. Does it really take that much time?

Do you know what exactly happens behind the scenes? Does the passport get printed here in US or comes from India?

I also saw some new stuff (unrelated though but may be applicable to me)

http://passportindia.gov.in/AppOnlineProject/pdf/Public_Notice_Machine_Readable_Passports.pdf

Thanks,
Venkat



Hi Jonty,

I just renewed my indian passport in SFO even I have expiry date until July 2014. I got new passport with in 15 days in SFO, Please ask me any questions related to passport I will help you. They said before expiry one year you can renewal any time.

I was travel to india 2 month ago, they stamped until my passport expiry date only even though have valid AP for another 2 month.

Thanks,
Anish

[Jonty Rhodes]

Hi Anish and Others,

My wife's passport is expiring in June 2014 and I applied for renewal in Atlanta Indian consulate with all the reqd documentation. The processing time says 6-8 weeks. Does it really take that much time?

Do you know what exactly happens behind the scenes? Does the passport get printed here in US or comes from India?

I also saw some new stuff (unrelated though but may be applicable to me)

http://passportindia.gov.in/AppOnlineProject/pdf/Public_Notice_Machine_Readable_Passports.pdf

Thanks,
Venkat

Venkat,

I was told by BLS guys in Chicago (They were really co-operative and helpful to me) that regular passport renewal takes at least 6 weeks if everything goes smooth. But it could take 8-10 weeks as well if there are some hiccups. There are some people who have received their passports in 3-4 weeks as well. Overall, if everything goes smooth, you should expect 4-6 weeks on an average to get the passport back.

Not sure about Atlanta but it should probably be the same time frame as Chicago. Also, they were telling every regular passport renewal applicant, not to start tracking their passport before 6 weeks. They said that, only after passports arrive back at BLS office and entered in to the BLS system, the applicants will be able to track them.

I don't know what exactly happens behind the scenes but I was clearly told by BLS and Indian Consulate in Chicago, that the passports are now printed in India exclusively. Passports are no longer printed here in US. After BLS accepts the passport applications, they are sent to India and new passports are printed in India. You can trust this information because I was just at the Indian Consulate in Chicago and BLS Chicago office yesterday to apply for a Tatkal (Emergency) passport.

Lot of time, there is a shortage of passport booklets in India which can delay the printing of passports and their delivery to US. I found that out yesterday from my brother-in-law who went to regional passport office in Ahmedabad to find out if I can get a Tatkal passport in India because Indian Consulate in Chicago was denying me to give a Tatkal passport. The lady at the inquiry window in Ahmedabad, said that regular 36 page passport booklets have run out of stock pretty much everywhere so there may be delay in getting the passport back even though it is a Tatkal application. The new shipment of booklets was going to arrive after January 1st. This fact was confirmed by BLS Chicago office yesterday because I had to give extra $25 for a Jumbo 60 page Passport booklet as BLS told me that, only 60 page booklets are in stock, especially for Tatkal passports.

Regarding the link that you posted, I met an Indian guy from Kolkata at BLS Chicago, who came to get a new passport with 10 year validity as his old passport had validity of 20 years. He told me that, if you have an Indian passport with 20 year validity, you can not get visa to travel in Eurozone. He also told me that by 2015, US will also stop giving visas to Indians who have passports with 20 year validity. I am sure he was referring to this document.

I hope, this is helpful.

[RMS_V13]

Jonty- Please first call the Indian embassy in Chicago (since you mention Ohare). The passport printing system WAS down (Oct--->Dec 1st week) and my husband's passport went to India along with everyone else and as usual no track of it once it went. We had an intl vacation coming up and his passport was stuck somewhere in India for printing. My husband went to the embassy and had to plead his case and don't know if it is the result of pleading or just luck, we got the passport 4 days before the travel date. The passport approve date was earlier date than the date my husband went to plead his case. So, may be the officer just helped track the passport and not actually speed up the process.

My friend who applied the same date as my husband has not received her passport as yet. Been 2 months. You may be allowed to board Air India, but u need to check on the return. Immigration Officer is what matters. Not the airline.

My husband's passport expires in June and when we returned from the holiday we had 5 months + days and we read we needed 6 months. I don't know if the holiday country's requirement or US requirement. That is the reason why we renewed it and it turned out to be a bigger nightmare.

Remember BLS is just call center. Their job is to hand over the passport to Chicago Office and then collect it. They don't know what happens in between. I received NO HELP and NO proper response. They had no clue Passport printing system was even down. I had to tell them. Just call or visit the embassy.

[qesehmk]

Not sure when this was published.... but the NVC wait list data point is now available ...

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

Those who don't know what this is - basically these are all the candidates that opted for counselor processing. So more than likely these people are waiting for their EB GC in their home country (although some present in US do opt for CP).

As per trend - two trends are quite visible:
1. EB5 is increasing YoY
2. EB3 is decreasing YoY by 10% which supports the fact that EB3 dates have moved with lightening speed of late.

[venkat]

Thanks Jonty and RMS for your insights.

Now it appears that it doesn't matter which Indian embassy you apply through (Chicago vs Atlanta) as eventually everything has to go to India for printing.

My guess is if its a major city embassy (like Chicago, SFO or New York) they may get it 1-2 weeks earlier than say Atlanta...but other than that everything else may be the same.

RMS, Based on what you have said your friend may have applied in the last week of October. I think your husband got luckier while your friend's case may be pending for some other reason.

I am sure there is some process in place before they start printing the passport in India (like some kind of verification....?)




Jonty- Please first call the Indian embassy in Chicago (since you mention Ohare). The passport printing system WAS down (Oct--->Dec 1st week) and my husband's passport went to India along with everyone else and as usual no track of it once it went. We had an intl vacation coming up and his passport was stuck somewhere in India for printing. My husband went to the embassy and had to plead his case and don't know if it is the result of pleading or just luck, we got the passport 4 days before the travel date. The passport approve date was earlier date than the date my husband went to plead his case. So, may be the officer just helped track the passport and not actually speed up the process.

My friend who applied the same date as my husband has not received her passport as yet. Been 2 months. You may be allowed to board Air India, but u need to check on the return. Immigration Officer is what matters. Not the airline.

My husband's passport expires in June and when we returned from the holiday we had 5 months + days and we read we needed 6 months. I don't know if the holiday country's requirement or US requirement. That is the reason why we renewed it and it turned out to be a bigger nightmare.

Remember BLS is just call center. Their job is to hand over the passport to Chicago Office and then collect it. They don't know what happens in between. I received NO HELP and NO proper response. They had no clue Passport printing system was even down. I had to tell them. Just call or visit the embassy.

[qesehmk]

Header updated with NVC explanation.

[suninphx]

Header updated with NVC explanation.

What's the basis for estimated 4500 EB2I cases with pre 2009 PDs. To me that number sounds much higher given that dates had moved till June 08 recently. So seems that I am missing something obvious.

[qesehmk]

What's the basis for estimated 4500 EB2I cases with pre 2009 PDs. To me that number sounds much higher given that dates had moved till June 08 recently. So seems that I am missing something obvious.
NVC data shows 9K. Those 9K are spread out from 2006/7 through early 2010 where dates touched briefly last year. I have no reason to believe that 9K is skewed towards early or later years. So just evened it out and approx 4.5K pre 2009 sounds just about right. Makes sense?

[vizcard]

Happy New Year to all. Hope 2014 brings better news for those waiting for their GCs

[suninphx]

NVC data shows 9K. Those 9K are spread out from 2006/7 through early 2010 where dates touched briefly last year. I have no reason to believe that 9K is skewed towards early or later years. So just evened it out and approx 4.5K pre 2009 sounds just about right. Makes sense?

I see your logic. But wouldn't majority of NVC application till PD June 08 have been cleared during recent date movement ?

[qesehmk]

I see your logic. But wouldn't majority of NVC application till PD June 08 have been cleared during recent date movement ?
The 485 inventory is as of 1 Oct 2013 whereas NVC data is as of 1 Nov 2013. So it seems that none of those 9K are cleared. Or better put - 9k are net of any 2013 allocations.

[gcpursuit]

When do they add people to the NVC waiting list?

I have been through CP last time. One of the reasons we chose CP was it was faster than 485 route. When we submitted documents , our documents were processed in 15 days and we were actually waiting for a interview date. But the retrogression happened before that ( our PD is june 2009 ). I believe most of the pre june 2008 would have had their interviews before retrogression this year. My guess is new CP filers and post june 2008 would be more in the 9k waiting list. If they were from the PD movement in 2012, then DOS would have had this number and it should have been in the demand data right?

[Kanmani]

When do they add people to the NVC waiting list?


In my opinion it is just after the approved I-140, I-130 forwarded to the NVC.

Once I-140 (Immigrant visa petition in the case of EB) is approved the USCIS forwards the I-140 to the National Visa Center. Whenever the PD mentioned in the I-140 is not current the petition is added to the NVC waiting list.

I think those 9k include petitioners + dependents should be as of Nov 2013. Correct me if I am wrong.

[qesehmk]

sport - happy new year to you too!

So actually I am not being conservative here. I am just taking USCIS/NVC data at face value. USCIS data is as of 1st Oct. NVC data is as of Nov 1. USCIS data (i.e. 485) don't include NVC. Those are provided facts. So no need to build any assumptions there.

Where we have to build assumption - is the distribution of NVC data over certain time period. So the question is what is a fair time period?

I would reason that there is no reason why CP candidates from past or in future were or will be more inclined to file CP. In other words the tendency of people to file CP should be constant over time. Thus then you distribute those 9K in proportion to the 485 inventory and you get 4.5K upto Dec 2008.

Hope this makes sense. But willing to adjust if there are better reasons to!

Happy new year Q.

I just read this latest on the NVC data from you. I think you have overestimated the NVC filers. NVC filers are the first ones to get greened once their interview dates are in place (one of the big advantages to go that route). So what is the reason that potentially a couple of thousand such filers are still waiting with PDs as far back as 2006? The starting point should be the assumption that a majority of such filers are cleared until at least June 2008.

Then, remember back in 2012, plenty of late 2008 filers were greened as the DOS ran out of visa numbers. I think the DIS might have cleared the NVC backlog until the end of 2008 in fact. By contrast, almost no one from 2009 could get greened and by the time their turn came, internal retrogression had set in. Thus a majority of those filers should be from 2009 and 2010.

Of course it's good to be conservative, but I think we should not be on the side of "too conservative".

[Kanmani]

Maybe that can explain why the actual AOS numbers for 2009 are so low.

Perm Filing was relatively low during 2009.

[qesehmk]

sport - I think we are in sync because by straightline mapping 9k CP backlog over 485 EB2I backlog you would indeed arrive at majority of CP backlog post 2007.

So yes ... I agree.

Additionally I also believe that significant CP folks are EB3 folks who have opted for India job with their own company and trying to take CP route and keep option open for EB1 as they mature in their career!! But again we can only speculate!!


Q, there is a massive jump in the CP filing over one year. Cumulatively, EB2 numbers increased from ~7k to ~16K...a jump of about 9K. I find it very interesting that 9k numbers are attributed to India. Thus the overall increase in the numbers is squarely attributable to India alone.

Now, what can make numbers for India go that much higher? Around November 2012, the EB2 date starting pushing forward at full throttle. Thus, I believe a majority of CP filers are *at least* post July 2007.

Finally, at what point are the CP filers greened? They had 2 chances - up until March 2012 and for about 4 months this year. At the very least, I would expect a majority of CP filers until June 2008 to be cleared. I would also expect some of the CP filers until Dec 2008 to be cleared back in 2012 when they had a chance.

In my view, it is not unreasonable to expect about 4 to 5K CP filers for years 2008 onward. In a normal year, that number would be 2K, but during 2008-2010, the economy was down and many people had gone back home. It's not unreasonable for them to take the CP route and attempt to come back through the same consulting firm that applied for them. Maybe that can explain why the actual AOS numbers for 2009 are so low.

[gcpursuit]

sport - I think we are in sync because by straightline mapping 9k CP backlog over 485 EB2I backlog you would indeed arrive at majority of CP backlog post 2007.

So yes ... I agree.

Additionally I also believe that significant CP folks are EB3 folks who have opted for India job with their own company and trying to take CP route and keep option open for EB1 as they mature in their career!! But again we can only speculate!!

So the 9k includes people who have never been current. right? If you have the I-140 marked with CP, then it gets added to the list. Am I missing something?

Also, even though you designate CP in I-140, people can still choose to file I-485. May be people wanted to keep both options open like me ;-)

[qesehmk]

No they don't. My understanding is that one cant file CP unless dates are current. Correct me if I am wrong.
So the 9k includes people who have never been current. right? If you have the I-140 marked with CP, then it gets added to the list. Am I missing something?

Also, even though you designate CP in I-140, people can still choose to file I-485. May be people wanted to keep both options open like me ;-)

[Kanmani]

No they don't. My understanding is that one cant file CP unless dates are current. Correct me if I am wrong.

Q, I think the other way. The waiting list includes immigrant visa applicants as of I-140 approved and forwarded.

Refer my earlier post #2636 today.

[qesehmk]

Q, I think the other way. The waiting list includes immigrant visa applicants as of I-140 approved and forwarded.

Refer my earlier post #2636 today.
kanmani thanks. As always you are right! So instead of 4.5K pre 2009, that should be 2.25K pre 2009 (approx)!

[AC_1980]

I recently applied for EAD/AP renewal for my wife and I (RD Nov 13, 2013), checked the case status today, my EAD/AP are approved, wife's EAD approved, on wife's AP, the status is INITIAL REVIEW, and below that it says:
On December 27, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we certified our approval of this case and sent it to the appropriate appellate body for review. They will notify you directly when they make a final decision. If you move while this case is pending, follow the instructions provided in the notice and use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.

can someone please help me understand what this means? have not received the notice in mail yet. thank you.
*Edit* - filed at Texas Service Center

[Pundit Arjun]

Nothing to worry, AC_1980. Means your application for renewal is approved and the cards are in the mail.
You will be receiving your combo card in couple of days.



I recently applied for EAD/AP renewal for my wife and I (RD Nov 13, 2013), checked the case status today, my EAD/AP are approved, wife's EAD approved, on wife's AP, the status is INITIAL REVIEW, and below that it says:
On December 27, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we certified our approval of this case and sent it to the appropriate appellate body for review. They will notify you directly when they make a final decision. If you move while this case is pending, follow the instructions provided in the notice and use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.

can someone please help me understand what this means? have not received the notice in mail yet. thank you.
*Edit* - filed at Texas Service Center

[AC_1980]

Arjun, thank you for the assurance, I appreciate you taking the time in clarifying this.

Moderators, please move my original question to the appropriate thread, I apologize for posting it here, did so because it appeared this thread sees the most traffic. thank you.

[qesehmk]

Moved gtyagi's discussion under 140 forum to http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2359-140-Horror-Stories-amp-Cautions-to-be-taken?p=45069#post45069

[tendlya]

Expiring I-94 while pending adjustment of status for dependent wife:

My wife entered USA last Feb using AP (Advance Parole). Her I-94 expires Feb 2014. Our 485 application has been pending for almost couple of years now. She is currently working on EAD. Does she need to renew her I-94? Is there a guidance somewhere which tells what to do with expiring I-94 in this kind of situation?

Please feel free to move this question once answered.

[Kanmani]

Expiring I-94 while pending adjustment of status for dependent wife:

My wife entered USA last Feb using AP (Advance Parole). Her I-94 expires Feb 2014. Our 485 application has been pending for almost couple of years now. She is currently working on EAD. Does she need to renew her I-94? Is there a guidance somewhere which tells what to do with expiring I-94 in this kind of situation?

Please feel free to move this question once answered.

You need not worry about that.

The I-94 expiration date is irrelevant for status purposes, whenever you re-enter using AP. You are currently on AOS pending, which has no status in reality. That's it!

[tendlya]

Thanks Kanmani!

[Jagan01]

There are biometrics requests for candidates with PD Jan 2009.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1367653289/biometrics-appointment-for-minor-pd-nov-2008/page/last_page

Is that any indication that dates might move upto Jan 2009 in this FY ?

[Kanmani]

There are biometrics requests for candidates with PD Jan 2009.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1367653289/biometrics-appointment-for-minor-pd-nov-2008/page/last_page

Is that any indication that dates might move upto Jan 2009 in this FY ?

It is a usual practice at USCIS to request for biometrics for the second time whenever the older one in their database turns out to be unreadable.

I guess the OP's son was ineligible then for biometrics when during the rest of the family did. I don't know the min age anyway.

I think the dates might move well in to 2009 FY'14 for other reasons.

[Jagan01]

It is a usual practice at USCIS to request for biometrics for the second time whenever the older one in their database turns out to be unreadable.

I guess the OP's son was ineligible then for biometrics when during the rest of the family did. I don't know the min age anyway.

I think the dates might move well in to 2009 FY'14 for other reasons.

Kanmani,

Happy new year to you.

Lets hope for the best. My gut feeling is telling me that EB1C is about to make a big dent into the supply for FY14.
I am hoping that dates should at least move into early 2009 for EB2I. It would be a pleasant surprise if they end up moving well into 2009.

[Kanmani]

Report of the Visa office 2013 is released (partially). http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_6241.html

[gcpursuit]

Report of the Visa office 2013 is released (partially). http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_6241.html

I see that the number of visas issued in EB2 and EB3 category for India are very low : http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY13AnnualReport-TableVI-PartII.pdf
Whats the deal with the NVC waiting list of 17k then? It was ~6k as of Nov 1,2012, right? Am I misunderstanding something here?

[qesehmk]

gcpursuit - The full data is still not in .... they always withhold some data and release other.

So at this point ignore the data.

I also noticed that the grand total for EB preference in 2013 is outright wrong in this document ..http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY13AnnualReport-TableVI-PartIV.pdf

So perhaps wait till the full data is disclosed.


I see that the number of visas issued in EB2 and EB3 category for India are very low : http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY13AnnualReport-TableVI-PartII.pdf
Whats the deal with the NVC waiting list of 17k then? It was ~6k as of Nov 1,2012, right? Am I misunderstanding something here?

[Kanmani]

I see that the number of visas issued in EB2 and EB3 category for India are very low : http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY13AnnualReport-TableVI-PartII.pdf
Whats the deal with the NVC waiting list of 17k then? It was ~6k as of Nov 1,2012, right? Am I misunderstanding something here?

Immigrant Visas issued at consular posts do follow numerical limitation applicable to any foreign state, just like AoS . These applicants are waiting because of the retrogression.

[Kanmani]

February 2014 visa bulletin is out ...http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6242.html

EB2 I- No change
EB2C- 08Jan09

[TeddyKoochu]

It is a usual practice at USCIS to request for biometrics for the second time whenever the older one in their database turns out to be unreadable.

I guess the OP's son was ineligible then for biometrics when during the rest of the family did. I don't know the min age anyway.

I think the dates might move well in to 2009 FY'14 for other reasons.

Its 14 years this was the case with one of my colleagues son.

[Jagan01]

February 2014 visa bulletin is out ...http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6242.html

EB2 I- No change
EB2C- 08Jan09

At least China is moving ahead steadily at one month every bulletin. If EB2C ends up around June 2009 in the July visa bulletin, then we can be assured that entire spillover will go to EB2I.

[gcpursuit]

Immigrant Visas issued at consular posts do follow numerical limitation applicable to any foreign state, just like AoS . These applicants are waiting because of the retrogression.

I understand the numerical limitation, Kanmani. Q recently updated his forecasting model with some numbers from the waiting list. Quoting him here :
"kanmani thanks. As always you are right! So instead of 4.5K pre 2009, that should be 2.25K pre 2009 (approx)! "

I am assuming most of these pre-2009 CP filers would have already had their documents submitted. If thats the case, CP filers till june 2008 should have been cleared. So were there only 155 filers for Eb2-India pre june 2008?

It doesnt make sense that there are 2.25k people waiting from june 2008 to jan 2009 where as we see only 155 issued visas for the previous year.I am feeling that there is some disconnect in the numbers. Am I even making sense?:)

[Kanmani]

I understand the numerical limitation, Kanmani. Q recently updated his forecasting model with some numbers from the waiting list. Quoting him here :
"kanmani thanks. As always you are right! So instead of 4.5K pre 2009, that should be 2.25K pre 2009 (approx)! "

I am assuming most of these pre-2009 CP filers would have already had their documents submitted. If thats the case, CP filers till june 2008 should have been cleared. So were there only 155 filers for Eb2-India pre june 2008?

It doesnt make sense that there are 2.25k people waiting from june 2008 to jan 2009 where as we see only 155 issued visas for the previous year.I am feeling that there is some disconnect in the numbers. Am I even making sense?:)

gcpursuit, I now understand where you stand.

Give me some time. I'll find it out. :)

[suninphx]

I understand the numerical limitation, Kanmani. Q recently updated his forecasting model with some numbers from the waiting list. Quoting him here :
"kanmani thanks. As always you are right! So instead of 4.5K pre 2009, that should be 2.25K pre 2009 (approx)! "

I am assuming most of these pre-2009 CP filers would have already had their documents submitted. If thats the case, CP filers till june 2008 should have been cleared. So were there only 155 filers for Eb2-India pre june 2008?

It doesnt make sense that there are 2.25k people waiting from june 2008 to jan 2009 where as we see only 155 issued visas for the previous year.I am feeling that there is some disconnect in the numbers. Am I even making sense?:)

I think 2250 number itself is too high. If I remember correctly EB2I CP cases are not more than 5% of visas allocated in any year. (I will have search through Spec's posts to confirm). So to put things in perspective if last year 15K visas were allocated to EB2I then going by above assumption CP cases out of those could in range of 750 to 1K (max).

[Kanmani]

Immigrant Visas issued at CONSULAR POSTS



CAT
India
2013
Worldwide
2013
Worldwide
2012


EB1
98
1722
1534


EB2
155
2284
1398


EB3
206
8537
8310


EB4
173
1289
1217


EB5
35
7312
6678


----------
----------
----------
----------


Total
667
21144
19137


----------
----------
----------
----------





Above data is collected from the Annual Report of the visa office 2013 & 2012. Only a total of 155 EB2 visas are issued at Indian consulates across the country.

When a total of 2284 EB2WW visas issued at the consulate posts across the world, how can we justify those 2250/year EB2I alone? That is your question. gcpursuit you are correct.

The DoS Annual report over the years show only triple digit EB2I approvals as consular processed, so I don't have any doubt on its reliabilty and those 9000 from the NVC waiting is also true.

So where did we go wrong?

I would speculate on the reason on why these NVC numbers have gone so high .

When a candidate opts for a consular processing while submitting I-140, he has the flexibility to switch to AoS anytime during the process. But the reverse is not true. An AoS opted applicant at no point can change his decision. With this I came to a conclusion that many chanakyas might have opted for CP and sitting here in US smiling at us .

They might later change it to AoS or my theory is wrong.

[qesehmk]

Kanmani - It's a great question and neither I have the answer. The only thing I would point out is that if your theory is correct then the distribution of the NVC backlog would be more frontloaded than backloaded.... in other words ... more towards earlier years rather than towards 2013/14 etc.

That's a scary thought. But just saying ...

One theory I can think of is .... these could be the EB3 folks who went back to India for good and used CP only as a nice to have option. Even in that scenario ... the distribution would be more front loaded.


[FONT=System]
So where did we go wrong?
...
When a candidate opts for a consular processing while submitting I-485, he has the flexibility to switch to AoS anytime during the process. But the reverse is not true. An AoS opted applicant at no point can change his decision. With this I came to a conclusion that many chanakyas might have opted for CP and sitting here in US smiling at us .

They might later change it to AoS or my theory is wrong.

[vishnu]

100,000% there are tons of EB2-I candidates with approved I-140s, residing in the US, where CP option is selected... when dates become current, can apply for i-485 as is. But in a situation, where the applicant is overseas, at least the CP option can be utilized. FOr this reason, many lawyers chose CP for Indian EB2 applicants. I am one of them :) I have also seen these comments in blogs such as Murthy and Gotcher.

A vast majority of EB2 I CP candidates will never actually go the CP route...direct AoS.

[gcpursuit]

Kanmani,
I am one of those who selected CP.. Well.. Our lawyer selects that by default and he explained the advantages of choosing cp.. When its time, we can choose to do cp or aos.. I don't understand why lot of them don't do this when there is clearly an advantage.

Q - I don't get the reason behind your statement that 9k would be more front loaded. Could you explain please?

[qesehmk]

gcpursuit - does CP give you EAD AC21 AOS etc? If not - then I would think that's why people opt for 485.

In terms of front vs backloaded vs average loaded - I am thinking that would be more true with my theory where if people go back and they keep GC alive through CP then the people who go back are generally with prior PDs frustrated with long wait times and looking for career progression.

On the other hand with Kanmani's theory - it would be as much front loaded but will only slightly be front loaded for the simple fact that one can only file CP after 140 approval. So even if one has PD in 2011/12/13 .... depending on whether 140 is approved - CP may or may not be filed.

Here is one more theory why there may be more CP numbers now vs prior. With EB2 now getting significantly retrogressed and EB3 severely - a candidate may be much more willing to at least get the ball rolling (or so s/he thinks). Perhaps that could explain higher CP levels.
p.s. For lack of better info - I am going with straightlining.

Kanmani,
I am one of those who selected CP.. Well.. Our lawyer selects that by default and he explained the advantages of choosing cp.. When its time, we can choose to do cp or aos.. I don't understand why lot of them don't do this when there is clearly an advantage.

Q - I don't get the reason behind your statement that 9k would be more front loaded. Could you explain please?

[gcpursuit]

gcpursuit - does CP give you EAD AC21 AOS etc? If not - then I would think that's why people opt for 485.

.

Q,

CP is just an option you select when you file I-140. When your PD gets current, you can choose to apply for I-485 or do it through CP. It gives you the flexibility to choose AOS or CP.
Whereas if you selected AOS in your I-140, you need to file a request to change it to CP which I believe is a long process. I certainly see a big advantage with this.It doesnt tie you up to AOS. If you had to go overseas, you continue your GC process without any delays.

If people are added to NVC waiting list right after I-140 approval like Kanmani said, then you dont have to file anything to get on the CP list. I feel that a major portion of the 9k that was added between Nov 2012 to Nov 2013 would have later PDs( except for porting cases). I dont have any data to defend it. Its just my hunch.

[Kanmani]

gcpursuit,

I agree with you, opting for cp has dual benefits. But this is relatively new among the attorneys' community to opt for cp or to inform the applicants to choose between. Not all counsels did it then and we were one among them in 2009, I don't think many such 2006 -2008 ers were informed too.

I just noticed your PD is few days later to that of mine :) what do you think of our chances this FY ?

[gcpursuit]

gcpursuit,

I agree with you, opting for cp has dual benefits. But this is relatively new among the attorneys' community to opt for cp or to inform the applicants to choose between. Not all counsels did it then and we were one among them in 2009, I don't think many such 2006 -2008 ers were informed too.

I just noticed your PD is few days later to that of mine :) what do you think of our chances this FY ?

I agree. Even now attorneys put AOS by default. I changed jobs and had to restart my I-140. The attorneys in my current company chose I-485 by default and I specifically asked them to change it when we reviewed the docs.

Regarding our PD, I am thinking next year. If we are extremely lucky, we might get a chance this year. In my case, I havent filed I-485 yet. I was in the process of changing jobs last time. I am praying that it should go through this year so that I can get EAD atleast. But I am not keeping any high hopes.

[qesehmk]

Q,

CP is just an option you select when you file I-140. When your PD gets current, you can choose to apply for I-485 or do it through CP. It gives you the flexibility to choose AOS or CP.
Whereas if you selected AOS in your I-140, you need to file a request to change it to CP which I believe is a long process. I certainly see a big advantage with this.It doesnt tie you up to AOS. If you had to go overseas, you continue your GC process without any delays.

If people are added to NVC waiting list right after I-140 approval like Kanmani said, then you dont have to file anything to get on the CP list. I feel that a major portion of the 9k that was added between Nov 2012 to Nov 2013 would have later PDs( except for porting cases). I dont have any data to defend it. Its just my hunch.
I am aware of that but I think I would differ that CP is automatic. I am pretty sure one has to choose it. Otherwise we would've seen EB2I and EB3I NVC backlog would be 40-80K!!
One has to specifically choose it. I agree that there is really not much intelligent way to determine where that 9K sits. So anybody's guess could be as good as your and mine!

[gcpursuit]

I am aware of that but I think I would differ that CP is automatic. I am pretty sure one has to choose it. Otherwise we would've seen EB2I and EB3I NVC backlog would be 40-80K!!
One has to specifically choose it. I agree that there is really not much intelligent way to determine where that 9K sits. So anybody's guess could be as good as your and mine!
I don't understand what you mean by automatic. I was saying that my attorney always chooses cp even if you want to do aos.

I can only tell from my experience with nvc. Once the i-140 was approved, USCIS forwarded a copy to the nvc. Nvc sent an email to notify about consular processing. If the PD is current, I believe it will ask to pay the fees etc. In our case, it was something like visa number not available and a case number was assigned. It is my guess that it gets added to the nvc waiting list at this point.

[qesehmk]

I was saying that my attorney always chooses cp even if you want to do aos.

This makes sense to me. Perhaps I misunderstood following sentence of yours as if you were saying that CP is default if 485 is not chosen.



If people are added to NVC waiting list right after I-140 approval like Kanmani said,

[helooo]

I don't know if this is correct or not.
http://vbimmigration.wordpress.com/2013/12/03/unofficial-predictions-from-the-visa-office/

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Based on what we know now has happened for this FY till this point, when can I expect the dates for EB2-I to move? As per the above post ref. by helooo, it looks like any fwd movement isn't likely till Aug/Sep '14. My priority date is in the last week of July '2008 & I'll be a first time filer. So, what are the chances that the dates are going to move ahead early enough for me to get a approval in FY 2014? Do you see any possibility of USCIS moving the dates back to 2008 & keeping them open for a month or two in FY 2015?

[qesehmk]

So - in terms of date movements - it has become a fixed pattern for EB2I that the dates move in last 2-3 months i.e. Jul-Sep. The only year way the dates will move anytime sooner will be when the USCIS approaches the cliff like the 2007 one. In other words the EB2I dates were moved upto May 2010 ... so the point in time when USCIS gets closer to clearing all the case till May 2010 then (or slightly before that) they will again move dates for EB2I to generate demand and then again retro back. Until then we will see a forward movement in last 3 months and then a year long retrogression.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

So - in terms of date movements - it has become a fixed pattern for EB2I that the dates move in last 2-3 months i.e. Jul-Sep. The only year way the dates will move anytime sooner will be when the USCIS approaches the cliff like the 2007 one. In other words the EB2I dates were moved upto May 2010 ... so the point in time when USCIS gets closer to clearing all the case till May 2010 then (or slightly before that) they will again move dates for EB2I to generate demand and then again retro back. Until then we will see a forward movement in last 3 months and then a year long retrogression.

Got it, qesehmk but do you see the fwd movement being sustained for a couple of mos to clear out as many pending aos like how it happened this fall. Ideally, I would want it to move in May as I may 've to go to India in Aug for a family event. So, if things move in May then I could probably 've the EAD before I leave. This way I'm assured of an entry back as I would 've to go for visa stamping if I were to leave in aug.

[qesehmk]

Got it, qesehmk but do you see the fwd movement being sustained for a couple of mos to clear out as many pending aos like how it happened this fall. Ideally, I would want it to move in May as I may 've to go to India in Aug for a family event. So, if things move in May then I could probably 've the EAD before I leave. This way I'm assured of an entry back as I would 've to go for visa stamping if I were to leave in aug.
Yes I do think that once the dates move they will stay there for 2 if not for 3 months.

[sairam09]

Any idea when priority date Feb 09 will become current again. I have already filed my aos. Thanks in advance for your inputs.

[Jagan01]

Any idea when priority date Feb 09 will become current again. I have already filed my aos. Thanks in advance for your inputs.

I think it has a good chance to be current this year. You can consider that early Feb 09 will be current with a chance of 55% (similar to June 2008 for last FY).

However, whether people with PDs in 2009 will get greened or not is a separate issue. I think early feb 2009 have good chances of being current but not so good chances of being greened in this FY. IF they follow the pattern from last year then dates might stay current for first 2 months of FY 2015 and that might give a good chance to 2009 candidates to get greened.

[mvraju]

My priority date is Sept 25 2009. Any idea when it would become current. I already filed my I-485.

[triplet]

mvraju: Sept 25 2009 should take till August 2015 but I guess anything is possible when it comes to date movement. Stay positive and hope for the best.

I had a question as to whether we have to be in the US when dates are current in order to be able to receive a green card. I am a professor and I have to travel on a research project in June and July and my PD is Oct 2008, don't want to miss the boat if I get current this year. Also, if I get an RFE I want to be able to respond as quickly as possible. Thank you!

[Kanmani]

Hey Friends,

Immigrant Visas Issued at Consular Posts and Adjustments of Status subject to numerical limitations Fy-2013 is available now ....http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

The Total FB used is around 215,753 out of 226k, so no more extras from FB other than already announced.

I could see only 17193 EB2I total visas have been distributed in FY 2013, earlier during AILA members meeting Mr.CO said around 15K were from already pre-adjudicated cases, PD movement to June 2008 justifies this in the I-485 inventory.

Having said that leaves the porting demand cleared could be around 2k (!!!).

Point me where I went wrong.

[sairam09]

Hi Kanmani,

Thanks for your brainstorming!. Can you tell us where it to take us during the forward movement?

Regards,

Sai

[Kanmani]

Hi Kanmani,

Thanks for your brainstorming!. Can you tell us where it to take us during the forward movement?

Regards,

Sai

Perm approvals are at least 8 months backlogged, is the only information available now. It is too early to predict at this point.

[Kanmani]

Eb3I received a total of 7816 :)

Is this the effect of Spillover Fall across ?

[qesehmk]

Probably because EB3ROW date movements were not sufficiently aggressive.

p.s. - I also noticed EB3 issued 3K extra visas which resulted in overall visas being issued 3K more than planned limit which was 158K for FY 2013.

So I guess the revised answer is - somehow EB3 lapped 3K more. And EB3I turned out to be the beneficiary because EB3ROW couldn't utilize them all inspite of all rapid dates advancements.


Eb3I received a total of 7816 :)

Is this the effect of Spillover Fall across ?

[rosharma]

Q/Kanmani

So is it safe to conclude that all the moment in FY 2013 was due to extra 18K FB VISA. Other categories (EB-1, EB2-ROW, EB4 & EB5) did not provide significant spillovers.

[qesehmk]

Q/Kanmani

So is it safe to conclude that all the moment in FY 2013 was due to extra 18K FB VISA. Other categories (EB-1, EB2-ROW, EB4 & EB5) did not provide significant spillovers.
At a simplistic level that can be said. But there are obvious nuances to that. But I guess the key message from EB2 category is that - EB2ROW showed extremely strong demand (perhaps the EB3->2 porting is also happening in EB2) and that restricted EB2I. Just as an example S Korea alone received 7K EB2 visas. Overall EB2 received 63K against its quota of 40K. So obviously EB4/5/1 contributed approx 18K. So spillover was there. But ROW EB2 didn't provide any whatsoever. If anything they ate into the spillover received from EB1/4/5.

[Kanmani]

Probably because EB3ROW date movements were not sufficiently aggressive.

p.s. - I also noticed EB3 issued 3K extra visas which resulted in overall visas being issued 3K more than planned limit which was 158K for FY 2013.

So I guess the revised answer is - somehow EB3 lapped 3K more. And EB3I turned out to be the beneficiary because EB3ROW couldn't utilize them all inspite of all rapid dates advancements.

I agree. But to the disappointment, they have utilized a part of it and wasted 1488, the total Worldwide EB3 FY'13 limit was 45,188 , but the total usage under EB3 was 43740.

[sairam09]

Hi Kanmani,

What would be the reasonable Guesstimate, Where we will be traversing this year...

Regards,

Sai

[qesehmk]

I agree. But to the disappointment, they have utilized a part of it and wasted 1488, the total Worldwide EB3 FY'13 limit was 45,188 , but the total usage under EB3 was 43740.
That's right. So including the 2013 increased quota EB3 actually underutilized.

[Kanmani]

Preference
Catogory
EB Worldwide
limit FY'13
EB Visas
Total FY'13



EB1
45,188
39,058



EB2
45,188
63,461



EB3
45,188
43,740



Eb4
11,218
6,446



Eb5
11,218
8,564



Total
158,000
161,269




158K to 161K ??????? How could it even possible ?

[qesehmk]

It's possible Kanmani. If you carefully read the language about annual numerical limits - you can see that the overall limit is worded as "at least". Thus indicating that the law allows DOS to increase the limit at its discretion - although the law intends DOS to stay within limit.



Preference
Catogory
EB Worldwide
limit FY'13
EB Visas
Total FY'13


EB1
45,188
39,058


EB2
45,188
63,461


EB3
45,188
43,740


Eb4
11,218
6,446


Eb5
11,218
8564


Total
158,000
161,269



158K to 161K ??????? How is it even possible ?

[Kanmani]

It's possible Kanmani. If you carefully read the language about annual numerical limits - you can see that the overall limit is worded as "at least". Thus indicating that the law allows DOS to increase the limit at its discretion - although the law intends DOS to stay within limit.

Agree. I think those extras went to South Korea in a way to compensate the war tensions.

[suninphx]

But ROW EB2 didn't provide any whatsoever. If anything they ate into the spillover received from EB1/4/5.

That's no surprise. Given EB2ROW were retro for 3 months in FY 2012. On bright side - EB2ROW may not have consumed as much spillover as initially thought on this forum.

[YTeleven]

Please find the attachment with the estimation of EB visa allocations for India in 2014.
I did a similar estimation last year and surprisingly it was inline with the today's visa stats released by DOS.
This estimation is based on current statistics and some fundamentals around the EB categories for I,C & ROW.

[suninphx]

Please find the attachment with the estimation of EB visa allocations for India in 2014.
I did a similar estimation last year and surprisingly it was inline with the today's visa stats release by USCIS.
This estimation is based on current statistics and some fundamentals around the EB catagories for I,C & ROW.

Thanks! :)

[sairam09]

Thanks! :)





Please find the attachment with the estimation of EB visa allocations for India in 2014.
I did a similar estimation last year and surprisingly it was inline with the today's visa stats released by DOS.
This estimation is based on current statistics and some fundamentals around the EB categories for I,C & ROW.

[shreyasai2004]

So you feel that dates will move Until july 2009 for FY 2014.



Please find the attachment with the estimation of EB visa allocations for India in 2014.
I did a similar estimation last year and surprisingly it was inline with the today's visa stats released by DOS.
This estimation is based on current statistics and some fundamentals around the EB categories for I,C & ROW.

[triplet]

I spoke to my lawyer today and he said there's just no way a PD of Oct 2008 can be current this July/August. I guess we'll wait and see what happens, the stats on this site tell a different story.
People on this blog are really well informed about various procedures but for those of us less familiar with rules, if you are issued a green card when you are out of the country both AP and H1B become null and void. I guess the green card will need to be mailed to you to be able to reenter at the US.

[Jagan01]

I spoke to my lawyer today and he said there's just no way a PD of Oct 2008 can be current this July/August. I guess we'll wait and see what happens, the stats on this site tell a different story.
People on this blog are really well informed about various procedures but for those of us less familiar with rules, if you are issued a green card when you are out of the country both AP and H1B become null and void. I guess the green card will need to be mailed to you to be able to reenter at the US.

Most of the times the lawyers want to not listen to you and hence try and put you off. So I would say that his statement is not realistic.

However, I do not agree to many predictions going around indicating that the dates can move to Mar 2009.

Supply:
EB5 will not give much spillover
EB1 will not give any spillover
EB4 might give 5k
Family based GC will give 10k to EB and thus EB2 might get around 6k from there

I believe, EB2I would get 11k spillover and 3k is the annual quota.

Demand:
I believe that most of the 3k annual quota is used up and has cleared most of the backlog until June 2008. However, the I-485 inventory that shall be soon published will give us a better picture.

Below is what I expect from the Jan I-485 inventory:
Demand before Jan 2009 --> 10k
Demand for Jan 2009 --> 1.3k
Demand for Feb 2009 --> 1.3k
Demand for Mar 2009 --> 1.4k

I feel with 1k supply, everything before Jan 2009 should be cleared and dates should move into 2009. However, with the 1k supply remaining, the CO might put dates at mid-end Jan 2009 as he knows that Jan 2009 itself has a demand of 1.3k.

[YTeleven]

So you feel that dates will move Until july 2009 for FY 2014.

Its is possible if we see extremely low porting numbers this year. I'm guessing it will be 5000 this year due to various reasons.
If that is true then original EB2-I applications will get around 15K visas as per above estimation and this will take us into 2009 levels.
Here is the past 3 years porting numbers:
------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3-I Porting Estimation----| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual Reduction in Demand| 5950 | 6450 | 15600 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual allocation of Visas----| 4002 | 2804 | 7816 |
------------------------------------------------------------------
Approx. Porting numbers----| 1948 | 3646 | 7784 |
------------------------------------------------------------------

[suninphx]

Most of the times the lawyers want to not listen to you and hence try and put you off. So I would say that his statement is not realistic.

However, I do not agree to many predictions going around indicating that the dates can move to Mar 2009.

Supply:
EB5 will not give much spillover
EB1 will not give any spillover
EB4 might give 5k
Family based GC will give 10k to EB and thus EB2 might get around 6k from there

I believe, EB2I would get 11k spillover and 3k is the annual quota.

Demand:
I believe that most of the 3k annual quota is used up and has cleared most of the backlog until June 2008. However, the I-485 inventory that shall be soon published will give us a better picture.

Below is what I expect from the Jan I-485 inventory:
Demand before Jan 2009 --> 10k
Demand for Jan 2009 --> 1.3k
Demand for Feb 2009 --> 1.3k
Demand for Mar 2009 --> 1.4k

I feel with 1k supply, everything before Jan 2009 should be cleared and dates should move into 2009. However, with the 1k supply remaining, the CO might put dates at mid-end Jan 2009 as he knows that Jan 2009 itself has a demand of 1.3k.

Jagan - why is your EB1 spillover estimate so conservative?

[Kanmani]

Its is possible if we see extremely low porting numbers this year. I'm guessing it will be 5000 this year due to various reasons.
If that is true then original EB2-I applications will get around 15K visas as per above estimation and this will take us into 2009 levels.
Here is the past 3 years porting numbers:
------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3-I Porting Estimation----| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual Reduction in Demand| 5950 | 6450 | 15600 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual allocation of Visas----| 4002 | 2804 | 7816 |
------------------------------------------------------------------
Approx. Porting numbers----| 1948 | 3646 | 7784 |
------------------------------------------------------------------

Do you think 5000 porters fall on the lower end ?

What is your take on splitting the porters from the total of 17k EB2I approvals?(FY13)

[Jagan01]

Jagan - why is your EB1 spillover estimate so conservative?

Sun,

I do not think my estimation of EB1 is conservative. I am thinking EB1 will use 40,500 out of the 42,910 available to them. FY2013 numbers show they used up 39,058.

Family based 10k extra visas will be distributed as follows:
EB1 --> 2910
EB2 --> 2910
EB3 --> 2910
EB4 --> 635
EB5 --> 635

EB1 will be having approximately 42,910 available visas. Remember that 2,910 is coming from Family based. I feel they will completely use up the original 40,000 available to them. There might be around 2500 that they do not use. However, I have already accounted those 2500 in the total spillover that I gave to EB2I from FB.

EB2I will get 6k spillover from FB.
2.5k from EB1
3k of its own
1k from EB4 and EB5.

[Jagan01]

Its is possible if we see extremely low porting numbers this year. I'm guessing it will be 5000 this year due to various reasons.
If that is true then original EB2-I applications will get around 15K visas as per above estimation and this will take us into 2009 levels.
Here is the past 3 years porting numbers:
------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3-I Porting Estimation----| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual Reduction in Demand| 5950 | 6450 | 15600 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual allocation of Visas----| 4002 | 2804 | 7816 |
------------------------------------------------------------------
Approx. Porting numbers----| 1948 | 3646 | 7784 |
------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi YTeleven,

Thanks for the data.

The data you provided only considers the people porting from EB3 to EB2 that had earlier filed I-485 in EB3.

Did you consider the fact that post Aug 2007 there are many many EB3s with approved I-140 that have already ported to EB2. These candidates do not show up in the demand data. Technically, the porting number was more than 7784 in FY2013.

[qesehmk]

A few more interesting observations from the 2013 visa allocations: (In the order of importance and implications)

1. Overall consumption was 3K more than initial visa allocation of 158K
2. EB2 consumption was 63K i.e. approx 18K more than quota. Thus 18K came from other categories.
3. EB2ROW consumption was 36K. That is huge. Plus EB2P received 4.4K and EB2-SKorea received 7K. This doesn't bode well for 2014
4. EB3 overall consumption was 41K which was 3K less than its quota. However EB3I received 7K and inventory reduced by 12K. Thus 5K of EB3->2 porting for India was confirmed.
5. EB1 India ate up almost 10K while EB1 china consumed 6K. thus showing healthy demand for EB1 in 2014.
6. EB5 china consumed 6K thus showing healthy future demand for EB5

Overall it is safe to say without the 18K extra visas EB2I would be crushed under all this demand and there would be very little movement. Fundamentally there are several -ve trends going on here.

1. EB1 and 5 has healthy demand.
2. EB2ROW has very strong demand - probably it includes EB3 porting.
3. EB2I has almost 5K of EB3I porting.

All of this means EB2I will move quite slow in future years. If the employment environment improves then EB2ROW will add even more pressure. Sorry for the bad news .... but unfortunately that's the truth.

Any critique or a different perspective is very welcome. I would be glad to be wrong on all of these.

p.s. - Forgot to say but EB3ROW as well as EB3I has solid good trends going on. Basically EB3ROW should become current in couple of years from now - perhaps as soon as next. Whereas EB2I should move at least 6 months this year if the porting is proceeding at 5K/year. For EB2C the situation is ridiculous and they might want to reconsider filing in EB3!!

[Kanmani]

Q, I have a problem with point no.4.

The inventory had a total of approximately 15k pending demand , No big bunch of pending crowd with PDs earlier than June 2008 brought forward to FY'14 , which shows the movement was no meaningless. Where do we insert the porting demand into this 17K actuals scenario? How can you justify the CoD movement to June 2008?

[qesehmk]

Kanmani -

2012 EB3I Inventory - 47354 (A)
2013 EB3I Inventory - 34336 (B)
2013 EB3I Approvals - 7816 (C)
2013 EB3I Portings + Denials - ? (D)

A - B = C + D thus implying D = 5202.

Makes sense?




Q, I have a problem with point no.4.

The inventory had a total of approximately 15k pending demand , No big bunch of pending crowd with PDs earlier than June 2008 brought forward to FY'14 , which shows the movement was no meaningless. Where do we insert the porting demand into this 17K actuals scenario? How can you justify the CoD movement to June 2008?

[YTeleven]

Hi YTeleven,

Thanks for the data.

The data you provided only considers the people porting from EB3 to EB2 that had earlier filed I-485 in EB3.

Did you consider the fact that post Aug 2007 there are many many EB3s with approved I-140 that have already ported to EB2. These candidates do not show up in the demand data. Technically, the porting number was more than 7784 in FY2013.

Hi Jagan,

I don't want to consider it as those are NOT many but insignificant numbers as the period we are considering is between Aug'07 to Dec'08 and all my calculations are approximations.
Let me come to that porting figure from a different equation as shown below:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct2012 EB2I Inventory data before Jan2009--| 22923
Oct2013 EB2I Inventory data before Jan2009--| 13645
Reduction of above data in FY13 (Difference)--| 9278(B)
Actual Visas allocated for EB2-I in FY13--------| 17193(A)
Approx. Porting numbers in above Visas--------| 7915(A-B)
----------------------------------------------------------------

[Kanmani]

Kanmani -

2012 EB3I Inventory - 47354 (A)
2013 EB3I Inventory - 34336 (B)
2013 EB3I Approvals - 7816 (C)
2013 EB3I Portings + Denials - ? (D)

A - B = C + D thus implying D = 5202.

Makes sense?

I think I was not clear in framing the question. My Bad!

How does that 5000 porting fit into the approvals ?
Movement to June 2008 - 15K
Porting - 5K
Total - 20K
Actuals - 17K

[qesehmk]

So the evidence of 5K porting is coming from EB3 data. I guess your question is how do we fit that into EB2 numbers right?

So as you said ...

I would do it as follows (please plug in the numbers as I haven't checked them specifically for EB2).

EB2I 2012 Inventory - A
EB2I 2013 Inventory - B
EB2I porting 2013 - 5000
EB2I denials plus withdrawals 2013 - D
EB2I approvals 2013 - 17K

A + 5000 - B - D = 17K

That's how those numbers will fit together.


I think I was not clear in framing the question. My Bad!

How does that 5000 porting fit into the approvals ?
Movement to June 2008 - 15K
Porting - 5K
Total - 20K
Actuals - 17K

[Kanmani]

So the evidence of 5K porting is coming from EB3 data. I guess your question is how do we fit that into EB2 numbers right?

So as you said ...

I would do it as follows (please plug in the numbers as I haven't checked them specifically for EB2).

EB2I 2012 Inventory - A
EB2I 2013 Inventory - B
EB2I porting 2013 - 5000
EB2I denials plus withdrawals 2013 - D
EB2I approvals 2013 - 17K

A + 5000 - B - D = 17K

That's how those numbers will fit together.

This makes sense. I left the 'D' part. Thanks

[suninphx]

3. EB2ROW consumption was 36K. That is huge. Plus EB2P received 4.4K and EB2-SKorea received 7K. This doesn't bode well for 2014

Q- this represents 15 month worth if demand. Not that it dilutes the point you are making but still wanted to point out. Another thing is if PERM delay continue for rest of FY then this demand might even out over next years

[suninphx]

Sun,

I do not think my estimation of EB1 is conservative. I am thinking EB1 will use 40,500 out of the 42,910 available to them. FY2013 numbers show they used up 39,058.

Family based 10k extra visas will be distributed as follows:
EB1 --> 2910
EB2 --> 2910
EB3 --> 2910
EB4 --> 635
EB5 --> 635

EB1 will be having approximately 42,910 available visas. Remember that 2,910 is coming from Family based. I feel they will completely use up the original 40,000 available to them. There might be around 2500 that they do not use. However, I have already accounted those 2500 in the total spillover that I gave to EB2I from FB.

EB2I will get 6k spillover from FB.
2.5k from EB1
3k of its own
1k from EB4 and EB5.

Jagan - thanks for those numbers.

[harapatta2012]

I consider following as worst case scerario

Supply - Spillover
EB1 - 3k
EB2 ROW- 2k
EB4- 3 k
EB5 - 0.5k

(The above includes the 8K FB extra visas)

Total supply - 8.5 +3k = 11.5k

Demand-

Porting - EB3>Eb2 -- 6k
demand before June 15,2008 - 3k
Total demand ---9k

leftover for forward movement =SUpply-demand = 2.5k

This could bring the dates in sep 2014 for EB2I = AUg 15 2008

Offcourse this is worst case but not unrealistic.

[qesehmk]

Q- this represents 15 month worth if demand.
I am sorry I am not sure I understand. Can you please explain.

[suninphx]

I am sorry I am not sure I understand. Can you please explain.

So EB2ROW was retro for last 3 months of FY2012...in the numbers from FY2013 include those.

[qesehmk]

So EB2ROW was retro for last 3 months of FY2012...in the numbers from FY2013 include those.
sun - that's very good point. And generally that would'nt be applicable to retro categories. But EB2ROW is a generally current category and so it does apply. Thanks.
And yes you are right ..... the larger point still remains valid .... but the severity is reduced somewhat.

[redwood]

sun - that's very good point. And generally that would'nt be applicable to retro categories. But EB2ROW is a generally current category and so it does apply. Thanks.
And yes you are right ..... the larger point still remains valid .... but the severity is reduced somewhat.

Actually here is another take, all you Gurus can critique

Lets assume that PERM to Green Card for EB2ROW(non- I and C) takes 3 months (mostly true). So, you will have to assume that Q3 and Q4 2012 PERM is factored into 2013 GC demand since EB2ROW was U in Q42012.

Now (Q3 + Q4) 2012 PERMS = ~38K (see below link)

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification_2012.pdf

2013 PERMS = ~35K (By the same logic as above, we need to take out Q4 2013, ~7K) (see below link)

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2013_YTD_Q4.pdf

So, we can say that 66K (38K (2012) + 35K (2013) - 7K (Q4 2013)) were approved for the 2013 Green Card quota.

We all know that certain percentage of 66K PERMS is EB2ROW(non- I and C), lets say 30%

So, 66K * 30% ~20K EB2ROW(non- I and C) PERMS got converted into ~40K EB2ROW(non- I and C) Green Cards, giving us a rough 1:2 ratio.

Now in 2014, lets say 40K PERMS are approved out of which 30% (12K) are EB2ROW(non I and C)

So, by the above logic EB2ROW should use around 24K Green Cards leaving ~20K for EB2I and C. Now C uses 3K leaving I with 17K

The wild card is of course PERM processing. I also haven't yet factored in other spillovers. What did I miss ? :confused:

[amulchandra]

p.s. - Forgot to say but EB3ROW as well as EB3I has solid good trends going on. Basically EB3ROW should become current in couple of years from now - perhaps as soon as next. Whereas EB2I should move at least 6 months this year if the porting is proceeding at 5K/year. For EB2C the situation is ridiculous and they might want to reconsider filing in EB3!!

Hi Q ,

My PD is July 2006 eb3 I and we have been waiting patiently for the past 8 years. My kid will be going to college in 2016. It would be nice to have our GC by 2015 Dec when he starts applying for colleges. Do you think there is a chance that we might get GC by that time ?

Thank you very much in advance.

Amul

[Jagan01]

A few more interesting observations from the 2013 visa allocations: (In the order of importance and implications)

1. Overall consumption was 3K more than initial visa allocation of 158K
2. EB2 consumption was 63K i.e. approx 18K more than quota. Thus 18K came from other categories.
3. EB2ROW consumption was 36K. That is huge. Plus EB2P received 4.4K and EB2-SKorea received 7K. This doesn't bode well for 2014
4. EB3 overall consumption was 41K which was 3K less than its quota. However EB3I received 7K and inventory reduced by 12K. Thus 5K of EB3->2 porting for India was confirmed.
5. EB1 India ate up almost 10K while EB1 china consumed 6K. thus showing healthy demand for EB1 in 2014.
6. EB5 china consumed 6K thus showing healthy future demand for EB5

Overall it is safe to say without the 18K extra visas EB2I would be crushed under all this demand and there would be very little movement. Fundamentally there are several -ve trends going on here.

1. EB1 and 5 has healthy demand.
2. EB2ROW has very strong demand - probably it includes EB3 porting.
3. EB2I has almost 5K of EB3I porting.

All of this means EB2I will move quite slow in future years. If the employment environment improves then EB2ROW will add even more pressure. Sorry for the bad news .... but unfortunately that's the truth.

Any critique or a different perspective is very welcome. I would be glad to be wrong on all of these.

p.s. - Forgot to say but EB3ROW as well as EB3I has solid good trends going on. Basically EB3ROW should become current in couple of years from now - perhaps as soon as next. Whereas EB2I should move at least 6 months this year if the porting is proceeding at 5K/year. For EB2C the situation is ridiculous and they might want to reconsider filing in EB3!!



Q, Kanmani,

I had a question regarding the 7k visas given to S.Korea and 4.4k to Philippines. I remember someone sharing a document stating that all spillover should go to the most retrogressed country. According to that, EB2I should have received entire spillover. Basically, we were robbed of by S. Korea and Philippines and we lost 3.4 k visas.

Is EB2I supposed to receive the complete spillover coming to EB2 or not ?

[vizcard]

Q, Kanmani,

I had a question regarding the 7k visas given to S.Korea and 4.4k to Philippines. I remember someone sharing a document stating that all spillover should go to the most retrogressed country. According to that, EB2I should have received entire spillover. Basically, we were robbed of by S. Korea and Philippines and we lost 3.4 k visas.

Is EB2I supposed to receive the complete spillover coming to EB2 or not ?

The rule is spillover goes to the most retrogressed country assuming other countries have met their annual 7% quota. That quota is combined FB+EB. So the fact that SK and Phil got those EB visas meant that they didn't exceed their annual EB+FB quota.

[Jagan01]

The rule is spillover goes to the most retrogressed country assuming other countries have met their annual 7% quota. That quota is combined FB+EB. So the fact that SK and Phil got those EB visas meant that they didn't exceed their annual EB+FB quota.

Viz,

Thanks. Follow up Question.

1. In the example of Phil, they received a total of 26,840 out of total of 377,022. That exceeds the 7%. Something went wrong here and we lost our spillover.
2. In case of Phil, both EB2 and EB3 received more than the allocation. Once a country has demand left in both EB2 and EB3 and they are below the 7%, then which category gets the visas first. EB2 OR EB3. Basically if they give all visas to EB3 until 7% is met then EB2 visas wont be utilized and if they give all visas to EB2 until 7% is met then EB3 visas wont be utilized.

[triplet]

If you look at the last inventory, there are a little more than 10000 EB2I 2008 waiting for their Visas. If you take porting into account (estimated at around 4000-5000), I just don't see how the dates can cross Dec 2008 in a sustainable way. To me, even Dec is looking a bit shaky. I'm not being pessimistic, just trying to make sense of what's actually possible - I guess someone has to since Spec has gone missing!

[vizcard]

Viz,

Thanks. Follow up Question.

1. In the example of Phil, they received a total of 26,840 out of total of 377,022. That exceeds the 7%. Something went wrong here and we lost our spillover.
2. In case of Phil, both EB2 and EB3 received more than the allocation. Once a country has demand left in both EB2 and EB3 and they are below the 7%, then which category gets the visas first. EB2 OR EB3. Basically if they give all visas to EB3 until 7% is met then EB2 visas wont be utilized and if they give all visas to EB2 until 7% is met then EB3 visas wont be utilized.

It will always be EB2 first and then EB3.

Every year there is some goof up with the numbers and allocation but the basic "rules" are in place.

[qesehmk]

redwood - sorry I was away for a few days. We rented a cabin that had no internet. So couldn't respond earlier.

I think your thought process is right. Other people might have debate if it is 30% or 35% or 40%. Or whether 1 ROW PERM converts to 1.5 or 2 or 2.15. They are all assumptions anyway. So I think your thought process is largely right.

But what Sun said and I responded to was his assertion that in 2013 whatever X GCs EB2ROW received didn't map to 12 months of demand .... but rather 15 months. And so in 2014 ... all else being equal EB2ROW should consume X / 15 * 12 i.e 80% of 2013 visa consumption. So you may want to cross check your theory against this 80% number.

p.s. - A note to other moderators .... whenever you logon please check the moderator queue for any unapproved posts. This way new people won't have to wait too much before their posts are approved. Thanks much for your work.

Actually here is another take, all you Gurus can critique

Lets assume that PERM to Green Card for EB2ROW(non- I and C) takes 3 months (mostly true). So, you will have to assume that Q3 and Q4 2012 PERM is factored into 2013 GC demand since EB2ROW was U in Q42012.

Now (Q3 + Q4) 2012 PERMS = ~38K (see below link)

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification_2012.pdf

2013 PERMS = ~35K (By the same logic as above, we need to take out Q4 2013, ~7K) (see below link)

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2013_YTD_Q4.pdf

So, we can say that 66K (38K (2012) + 35K (2013) - 7K (Q4 2013)) were approved for the 2013 Green Card quota.

We all know that certain percentage of 66K PERMS is EB2ROW(non- I and C), lets say 30%

So, 66K * 30% ~20K EB2ROW(non- I and C) PERMS got converted into ~40K EB2ROW(non- I and C) Green Cards, giving us a rough 1:2 ratio.

Now in 2014, lets say 40K PERMS are approved out of which 30% (12K) are EB2ROW(non I and C)

So, by the above logic EB2ROW should use around 24K Green Cards leaving ~20K for EB2I and C. Now C uses 3K leaving I with 17K

The wild card is of course PERM processing. I also haven't yet factored in other spillovers. What did I miss ? :confused:

[redwood]

But what Sun said and I responded to was his assertion that in 2013 whatever X GCs EB2ROW received didn't map to 12 months of demand .... but rather 15 months. And so in 2014 ... all else being equal EB2ROW should consume X / 15 * 12 i.e 80% of 2013 visa consumption. So you may want to cross check your theory against this 80% number.


And I think that is what I differ on .

if
(Q3 + Q4) 2012 PERMS = ~38K and
(Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4) 2013 PERMS = ~35K

(see links in my prior post)

and if DOL continues with the similar pace as 2013 then

the 2013 GC EB2ROW consumption was >24 months and not 15 months worth of demand.

[qesehmk]

I think that your assumption of 3 month turnaround for EB2ROW doesn't gel with 24 months of backlog clearance for EB2ROW in 2013.

Something has to give.

p.s. - The 6 quarters you show below are 18 months. And I don't think that Q4 can be counted at all (assuming USCIS calendar here). So we are talking about Q3 that experienced retrogression. Q4 and Q1-3 from 2012. That's 15 months. I would take that 15 months - map to labor data and use the actual approvals vs labor data to figure out ROW %. You can't make a % assumption on ROW and then try to map based on that to months. Hope it makes sense!

And I think that is what I differ on .

if
(Q3 + Q4) 2012 PERMS = ~38K and
(Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4) 2013 PERMS = ~35K

(see links in my prior post)

and if DOL continues with the similar pace as 2013 then

the 2013 GC EB2ROW consumption was >24 months and not 15 months worth of demand.

[sreddy]

Hi Gurus, I need a bit of advise. My current H1 is expiring first week of August. My company law firm sent a notice to apply for H1 extension. I have EAD valid until March 2015. With my priority date (5th Aug 2008), I think there is a fair chance I will get GC by then. I believe they don't know about my EAD extension and validity of that new EAD card, which I extended myself.

1. What are the pros and cons of applying for extension? Should I even be spending time filling paper work, sending, etc.
2. I have a planned India trip this June, will be back first week of July. Anything related to that trip?
3. Also if I get any good opportunity around (not that I am seriously looking), any effect if I decide to move on?

[Kanmani]

And I think that is what I differ on .

if
(Q3 + Q4) 2012 PERMS = ~38K and
(Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4) 2013 PERMS = ~35K

(see links in my prior post)

and if DOL continues with the similar pace as 2013 then

the 2013 GC EB2ROW consumption was >24 months and not 15 months worth of demand.

redwood,

15 months demand is accumulated during the door shut period for EB2 ROW (july, Aug, Sept of 2012). EB2ROW were unable to file their I-485 due to retrogression, hence the 2013 approvals included those 3 months worth of demand. This scenario is entirely different from the perm delay one.

This theory can also be used to calculate the porting demand, porters had an 18 months wait time to get promoted to the demand data queue and then to GC approval, considering the cut of date was retrogressed from April 2012 to July 2013.

One comforting news is that 2014 may see less accumulation w.r.to porters, as the gate was open until Nov 2013.

[shekhar_kuruk]

Hi Gurus, I need a bit of advise. My current H1 is expiring first week of August. My company law firm sent a notice to apply for H1 extension. I have EAD valid until March 2015. With my priority date (5th Aug 2008), I think there is a fair chance I will get GC by then. I believe they don't know about my EAD extension and validity of that new EAD card, which I extended myself.

1. What are the pros and cons of applying for extension? Should I even be spending time filling paper work, sending, etc.
2. I have a planned India trip this June, will be back first week of July. Anything related to that trip?
3. Also if I get any good opportunity around (not that I am seriously looking), any effect if I decide to move on?

Looking at your priority date, looks like there is a fair chance that you could get current before you H1 expires, but you may not be able to get the GC till the end of Aug or later, depends on the processing time.
But having said that applying for an extension should not be an issue if your company is paying for it, which it should(the law states that). You also have an EAD which will help you get in and out of the US without a visa.
If you think it's an hassle to file, it is up to you to decide. I am on my 11th year of H1 and will continue to be till I get my GC. All the points you have indicated should not be an issue.

[bonobo]

Has anyone received their green card recently with PD beyond 2008 in EB2-I category? I have been hearing that though the visa bulletin says Nov 2004, some folks whose cases had been assigned a visa # have received the green cards.
Any thoughts?

[bonobo]

Has anyone received their green card recently with PD beyond 2008 in EB2-I category? I have been hearing that though the visa bulletin says Nov 2004, some folks whose cases had been assigned a visa # have received the green cards.
Any thoughts?

[Jagan01]

Has anyone received their green card recently with PD beyond 2008 in EB2-I category? I have been hearing that though the visa bulletin says Nov 2004, some folks whose cases had been assigned a visa # have received the green cards.
Any thoughts?

Some of them were getting approvals in December. There were basically applications approved in Nov, 2013 and were assigned visa numbers. It was just that the approvals took time to show up due to delays in processing. In some cases delays are large leading to late approvals (Jan).

[JJcalifornian]

just sharing an experience, my PD is Jan 2009 and applied for EAD renewal as I got EAD for 1 year on my last renewal (my wife got 2 year validity on 2013 renewal), approval came in for 2 years(valid till Jan 2016); looks like it's unlikely to reach Jan 2009 in 2014.

[Jagan01]

just sharing an experience, my PD is Jan 2009 and applied for EAD renewal as I got EAD for 1 year on my last renewal (my wife got 2 year validity on 2013 renewal), approval came in for 2 years(valid till Jan 2016); looks like it's unlikely to reach Jan 2009 in 2014.

I fail to understand your point. The 2 years , 1 year, etc is a little jumbled up.

Dates moving to a particular date and everyone before that date getting GC are two different things. For example, dates did move to June 2008 but not necessarily everyone before that PD got their GC. Some are still continuing on EAD even though their dates became current.

[JJcalifornian]

I fail to understand your point. The 2 years , 1 year, etc is a little jumbled up.

Dates moving to a particular date and everyone before that date getting GC are two different things. For example, dates did move to June 2008 but not necessarily everyone before that PD got their GC. Some are still continuing on EAD even though their dates became current.



Sorry for the confusion, all I was trying to say is; IO wouldn't be anticipating the dates will move in to Jan 2009 based on the information they have. Otherwise it would be a 1 year (till 2015) validity of EAD instead of two years. Agreed to the fact that everyone may not get the GC upon jumping the dates, but there is high probability of getting a GC. Let me say if some one with a PD Jan 2008 applies for an EAD renewal, he would be getting a 1 year valid EAD, since it's almost certain that dates will move beyond Jan 2008.

Now the 2/1 year part, we (wife&myself) applied I485 in 2012, along with EAD and approved it for 1 year validity. Upon reaching that 1 year time frame we send out application for EAD renewal, and She got it approved with a 2 year (till 2015) validity, and myself (primary) was renewed for 1 year. So now, that 1 year is getting over for my EAD and I did send out the renewal application again, this time I was expecting 1 year extension due to the fact that the dates may move in to Jan 2009, but they approved it for 2 year, that leads me to a conclusion that, it's gonna take more than a year to reach Jan 2009.

[Kanmani]

JJcalifornian,

My understanding is different . Whenever an EAD/AP application is reviewed, they look for the PD , if it is current they approve for 1 year, if it is not current, they go for 2 years.

The other theory is an assumption theory which is prevalent in the immigration forums to predict forward movements.

I think you have a very good chance to pass through. Good Luck!

[vizcard]

Hi Gurus, I need a bit of advise. My current H1 is expiring first week of August. My company law firm sent a notice to apply for H1 extension. I have EAD valid until March 2015. With my priority date (5th Aug 2008), I think there is a fair chance I will get GC by then. I believe they don't know about my EAD extension and validity of that new EAD card, which I extended myself.

1. What are the pros and cons of applying for extension? Should I even be spending time filling paper work, sending, etc.
2. I have a planned India trip this June, will be back first week of July. Anything related to that trip?
3. Also if I get any good opportunity around (not that I am seriously looking), any effect if I decide to move on?


Looking at your priority date, looks like there is a fair chance that you could get current before you H1 expires, but you may not be able to get the GC till the end of Aug or later, depends on the processing time.
But having said that applying for an extension should not be an issue if your company is paying for it, which it should(the law states that). You also have an EAD which will help you get in and out of the US without a visa.
If you think it's an hassle to file, it is up to you to decide. I am on my 11th year of H1 and will continue to be till I get my GC. All the points you have indicated should not be an issue.

Agree with shekar. There's no reason not to get h1 renewed. It is a safety net in case something happens to the 485...not saying anything will happen but h1 is like insurance in this case.

[JJcalifornian]

JJcalifornian,

My understanding is different . Whenever an EAD/AP application is reviewed, they look for the PD , if it is current they approve for 1 year, if it is not current, they go for 2 years.

The other theory is an assumption theory which is prevalent in the immigration forums to predict forward movements.

I think you have a very good chance to pass through. Good Luck!



Thanks Kanmani!

I wish so..

[harapatta2012]

Getting back to prediction for EB2I..I understnad the next milestone people would ahve more infromation is inventory?

based on what we know now, I consider following as WORST case scerario

Supply - Spillover
EB1 - 3k
EB2 ROW- 2k
EB4- 3 k
EB5 - 0.5k

(The above includes the 8K FB extra visas)

Total supply - 8.5 +3k = 11.5k

Demand-

Porting - EB3>Eb2 -- 6k
demand before June 15,2008 - 3k
Total demand ---9k

leftover for forward movement =Supply-demand = 2.5k

This could bring the dates in sep 2014 for EB2I = AUg 15 2008

Offcourse this is worst case but not unrealistic.

Vizkid, DO you think you would get GC by Sep 2014? 99.9% sure?

[Jagan01]

Getting back to prediction for EB2I..I understnad the next milestone people would ahve more infromation is inventory?

based on what we know now, I consider following as WORST case scerario

Supply - Spillover
EB1 - 3k
EB2 ROW- 2k
EB4- 3 k
EB5 - 0.5k

(The above includes the 8K FB extra visas)

Total supply - 8.5 +3k = 11.5k

Demand-

Porting - EB3>Eb2 -- 6k
demand before June 15,2008 - 3k
Total demand ---9k

leftover for forward movement =Supply-demand = 2.5k

This could bring the dates in sep 2014 for EB2I = AUg 15 2008

Offcourse this is worst case but not unrealistic.

Vizkid, DO you think you would get GC by Sep 2014? 99.9% sure?

I would say the above is completely unrealistic. Let me point a few cases where you are wrong:

1. EB gets approx 10000 from FB and not 8000 as mentioned in your post. FB utilized approximately 216k instead of 226k and hence the rest comes to EB.
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

2. You completely disregarded the slow PERM movements. EB2ROW will yield much more than 2k to EB2I.

3. Porting demand: There is no way that 6k of porting demand remains after FY2013 visas were used up. It is simply unrealistic. It would not be more than 3k.

[surya1975]

I would say the above is completely unrealistic. Let me point a few cases where you are wrong:

1. EB gets approx 10000 from FB and not 8000 as mentioned in your post. FB utilized approximately 216k instead of 226k and hence the rest comes to EB.
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

2. You completely disregarded the slow PERM movements. EB2ROW will yield much more than 2k to EB2I.

3. Porting demand: There is no way that 6k of porting demand remains after FY2013 visas were used up. It is simply unrealistic. It would not be more than 3k.


Jagan,

I think he said worst case scenario.

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

I think he said worst case scenario.

And I said that his worst case was unrealistic and did not even consider the correct numbers. For eg. 8000 FB to EB spillover instead of the actual 10000.
I was just correcting the facts.

[qesehmk]

And I said that his worst case was unrealistic and did not even consider the correct numbers. For eg. 8000 FB to EB spillover instead of the actual 10000.
I was just correcting the facts.
I think harapatta was using the earlier announced limit of 148K vs the revised one of 150K. But other than that omission his scenario is not "completely" unrealistic.

[harapatta2012]

Q, Thanks

Jagan,

1.Yes I used old figure of 8k instead of 10k.
2. I have heard about PERM demand slow..but also account for Korea and Phipl with huge numbers last year..KNow that included 15 months but still is increasing..
3. Well total porting is what I meant..Offcourse if 3k has been approved that..it has to be taken out of both Suppply and Demand..will not effect prediction...

So worst case could be slightly better Lets say by end of this fiscal...Sep end 2008 but not more..atleast based on all what you suggested,,

[Jagan01]

I think harapatta was using the earlier announced limit of 148K vs the revised one of 150K. But other than that omission his scenario is not "completely" unrealistic.

Q,

If you are saying that scenario is not completely unrealistic then it must be correct. You have much more information than most of us. I personally felt it is completely unrealistic.

The only worry I had was for people to make their future decisions on such claims. It strikes panic and people make certain wrong decisions. Anyways, we shall know in a few days, after the new Inventory numbers are out.

[qesehmk]

Jagan - Don't put too much faith in me either!!! I don't have access to any special information that is not out there publicly.

I think harapatta painted a scenario that he himself considered worst case i.e. with low probability. So I thought no harm in considering one as such. That's all.

You are right about people might misconstrue it as THE scenario!! The problem in predictions is that people like to know black and white ... and unfortunately there is no black and white in predictions. Prediction is all about probabilities and possibilities.



Q,

If you are saying that scenario is not completely unrealistic then it must be correct. You have much more information than most of us. I personally felt it is completely unrealistic.

The only worry I had was for people to make their future decisions on such claims. It strikes panic and people make certain wrong decisions. Anyways, we shall know in a few days, after the new Inventory numbers are out.

[vizcard]

Also keep in mind there's a difference between what the numbers say and date movement. Even if there's only 11.5k the dates could still move to Dec 2008 and there will be ppl who miss out this year. Happens every year.

And yes, I am 100% sure I will be current. Note I didn't say I'd get my GC coz there could be other reasons. But I'm positive I will be current.

[harapatta2012]

I think I did not clear my idea of presenting the worst case.

The idea is to know if it is really worse or can it be More worse. So I want to learn from others if there is something that they consider I missed in being pessimistic that I need to include.

Offcourse all other predictions point to better outlook. But thats what others have already done with what we have.

ONe more thing, I remember this situation happened in 2012-2013.
-Once 18k FB were anounced in oct-nov 2012, I heard lot of gurus including spec to predict we could get to dec 2008 or mar 2009 by end of sep2013.
-in spring , feb-april, that prediction got significanlty bad in which gurus predicted date to end up at Nov-dec 2007.
- The dates ended up being june2008.
Well There were lot of reasons why it ahd chnaged over time,, but overall I was myself a victim there as I early on assumed dates to reach Dec 2008 and later learning this and that reason why dates would not cross 2007.

So the idea is to paint both good and more improtant bad picture for decisions.

[vizcard]

I think I did not clear my idea of presenting the worst case.

The idea is to know if it is really worse or can it be More worse. So I want to learn from others if there is something that they consider I missed in being pessimistic that I need to include.

Offcourse all other predictions point to better outlook. But thats what others have already done with what we have.

ONe more thing, I remember this situation happened in 2012-2013.
-Once 18k FB were anounced in oct-nov 2012, I heard lot of gurus including spec to predict we could get to dec 2008 or mar 2009 by end of sep2013.
-in spring , feb-april, that prediction got significanlty bad in which gurus predicted date to end up at Nov-dec 2007.
- The dates ended up being june2008.
Well There were lot of reasons why it ahd chnaged over time,, but overall I was myself a victim there as I early on assumed dates to reach Dec 2008 and later learning this and that reason why dates would not cross 2007.

So the idea is to paint both good and more improtant bad picture for decisions.

Again don't confuse the math for actual date movement. Gurus here use the numbers to calculate a theoretical date that the numbers would support. CO can still do whatever he wants in terms of actual dates. So when the dates of mar 2008 were calculated it meant that ALL demand prior to that would be cleared. Since dates moved to June, there is some leftover (which I think you assumed to be 3K and I agree). My rule of thumb is (theoretical date+3 months) for "real date" movement.

[harapatta2012]

I agree that I am mistaking date movement by clearing of actual demand. As dates go SLIGHTLY beyond it should.

Well I wish there was better way to predict this SLIGHTLY, but as you said 3 months sounds on optimistic side.

I guess worse case for this SLIGHTLY could be 1or 1.5 months.

So then worse case prediction becomes
by sep 2014 , EB2 should reach Nov 15,2008.

[justvisiting]

Probably because EB3ROW date movements were not sufficiently aggressive.

p.s. - I also noticed EB3 issued 3K extra visas which resulted in overall visas being issued 3K more than planned limit which was 158K for FY 2013.

So I guess the revised answer is - somehow EB3 lapped 3K more. And EB3I turned out to be the beneficiary because EB3ROW couldn't utilize them all inspite of all rapid dates advancements.

I just got around to looking at the DOS statistics. If the visa allocation for EB in FY2013 was 158,000, then the allocation for each of EB!, 2 and 3 would have been
158000*.285 = 45,188
Since EB3 got a total of 43,740, I would argue that there were actually missing visas, which as usual went to EB-2.

[justvisiting]

A few more interesting observations from the 2013 visa allocations: (In the order of importance and implications)

1. Overall consumption was 3K more than initial visa allocation of 158K
2. EB2 consumption was 63K i.e. approx 18K more than quota. Thus 18K came from other categories.
3. EB2ROW consumption was 36K. That is huge. Plus EB2P received 4.4K and EB2-SKorea received 7K. This doesn't bode well for 2014
4. EB3 overall consumption was 41K which was 3K less than its quota. However EB3I received 7K and inventory reduced by 12K. Thus 5K of EB3->2 porting for India was confirmed.
5. EB1 India ate up almost 10K while EB1 china consumed 6K. thus showing healthy demand for EB1 in 2014.
6. EB5 china consumed 6K thus showing healthy future demand for EB5

Overall it is safe to say without the 18K extra visas EB2I would be crushed under all this demand and there would be very little movement. Fundamentally there are several -ve trends going on here.

1. EB1 and 5 has healthy demand.
2. EB2ROW has very strong demand - probably it includes EB3 porting.
3. EB2I has almost 5K of EB3I porting.

All of this means EB2I will move quite slow in future years. If the employment environment improves then EB2ROW will add even more pressure. Sorry for the bad news .... but unfortunately that's the truth.

Any critique or a different perspective is very welcome. I would be glad to be wrong on all of these.

p.s. - Forgot to say but EB3ROW as well as EB3I has solid good trends going on. Basically EB3ROW should become current in couple of years from now - perhaps as soon as next. Whereas EB2I should move at least 6 months this year if the porting is proceeding at 5K/year. For EB2C the situation is ridiculous and they might want to reconsider filing in EB3!!

The one glimmer of hope is the massive backlog in PERM - 8 months worth. For most of FY2013 the wait was only 4 months. Since EB2-ROw consumed about 3K a month, those extra four months represent maybe 12K visas thta could potnetially be vaialble in FY2014 (but of course this pent-up demand would then show up in 2015).

By the way the EB2-ROW number of 36K includes probably 8K that should have received a visa in FY2012 (in which EB2-I got more visas than they were supposed to). So maybe the "true" number for EB-2 ROW is more like 24K or 2K/month

[gcpursuit]

Does any one have any guess on how porting demand distribution would like ? I mean the priority date distribution of porters? With all the wait times for immigration which seems to be growing by the day, why would people apply in EB3 ( post July 2007 )? Wouldn't people with earlier PDs like 2003/04/05/06 have already ported by now. I understand the retrogression and that there is enough demand to consume monthly quota etc., Why hasn't the porting demand tapered off?


P.S : I don't know how difficult it is to port from EB3 to EB2. I changed employers (EB2 to EB2 ) with 2009 PD.

[Jagan01]

Does any one have any guess on how porting demand distribution would like ? I mean the priority date distribution of porters? With all the wait times for immigration which seems to be growing by the day, why would people apply in EB3 ( post July 2007 )? Wouldn't people with earlier PDs like 2003/04/05/06 have already ported by now. I understand the retrogression and that there is enough demand to consume monthly quota etc., Why hasn't the porting demand tapered off?


P.S : I don't know how difficult it is to port from EB3 to EB2. I changed employers (EB2 to EB2 ) with 2009 PD.

gcpursuit,

I would caution against thinking that porting demand is tapering. There would be many theories floating around. However, I personally feel that porting effect of candidates between June 2008 and Dec 2009 will be very high.

Reasons:
1. Not every employer files for MS candidates from US univs in EB2. They somehow try and trick the candidate to file in EB3.
2. The reason why employees did not really matter whether it was EB2 / EB3 at that time is as follows:
- People with PDs between June 08 and Dec 09 would have had their PERM initiated between Jan 08 and Jan 09.
- Considering that timeframe from Jan 08 to Jan 09, most of the time EB2I and EB3I dates were pretty close (In fact in Jan 08 EB3I was ahead of EB2I)
- Economy was on a downturn and when you see there is not much difference between EB2I and EB3I, you try to grab what you are getting.

I would not be surprised if there is a wave of people in between these dates that have ported and are waiting patiently. Please note that these candidates do not get reflected anywhere (neither in demand nor in inventory).

[vizcard]

Does any one have any guess on how porting demand distribution would like ? I mean the priority date distribution of porters? With all the wait times for immigration which seems to be growing by the day, why would people apply in EB3 ( post July 2007 )? Wouldn't people with earlier PDs like 2003/04/05/06 have already ported by now. I understand the retrogression and that there is enough demand to consume monthly quota etc., Why hasn't the porting demand tapered off?


P.S : I don't know how difficult it is to port from EB3 to EB2. I changed employers (EB2 to EB2 ) with 2009 PD.


Don't view porting as a temporary phenomenon. Its been around for a while but has come to the forefront because of the magnitude. Most porting in the past was done like you did..when you changed jobs. Now ppl are actively (I think - no data to support it) changing EB3 to EB2 even with same employers.

for an order of magnitude, think of how many ppl apply in EB3 every year. So after 5 yrs, those applicants are eligible for EB2... same thing the following year and the following year. So lets assume if there are 10k EB3 applicants every year, there is potential for 10K porters every year. I don't think porting is 10k per year (or even close to that) but that's just to demonstrate my point.

[qesehmk]

Viz said it very nicely. This is an ongoing snowballing process. think about all the EB3s from 2003/4/5 ... as these guys become mature in their profession it is quite logical that most of them have built more and more credibility in their organization so that their managers are now reprocessing their EB2s.

So the more backlogged EB3 will be ... eventually EB2 is going to become only slightly less backlogged. That's the nature of the beast that is immigration. You squeeze in one end it pops out at the other.


Don't view porting as a temporary phenomenon. Its been around for a while but has come to the forefront because of the magnitude. Most porting in the past was done like you did..when you changed jobs. Now ppl are actively (I think - no data to support it) changing EB3 to EB2 even with same employers.

for an order of magnitude, think of how many ppl apply in EB3 every year. So after 5 yrs, those applicants are eligible for EB2... same thing the following year and the following year. So lets assume if there are 10k EB3 applicants every year, there is potential for 10K porters every year. I don't think porting is 10k per year (or even close to that) but that's just to demonstrate my point.

[axecapone]

Hey folks,

I have been reading this thread quite actively. My PD is in Sept 2013, so my story is not really relevant to this post but I am curious to know the future of EB based GC for India.

From what I am reading, the future looks very disturbing for EB Indian applicants without any reform. Before recession (2007-2008), it was a standard wait time of 4-4.5 years to get EB2 GC irrespective of how you started. I would have assumed recession would have made things easier but it does not appear to be so. I am wondering are there are any signals that indicate the queue stabilizing? Conversely, are there any signals that indicate the queue is getting only progressively worse?

[sreddy]

It was 4 to 5 years before recession, right now it is about 5.5 to 6 years (June/July 2008 PD will get GC in July/Aug 2014). EB2I is dependent on two factors. EB3 to EB2 porting, and spill over from EB1, EB2ROW, and other categories. Hard to predict porting numbers, and demand in those categories that are currently contributing to EB2I. If the current trend continues, EB2I is expected to loose about 3-6 months per year.

There was a hope of EB2I becoming current (or close to current) with immigration bill passing in Congress. Now chances of that happening are very dim in Obama's period. 2014 is the last opportunity for that to happen. If not, nothing is going to happen until 2018. Even after that, it all depends on the new president, and congress.



Hey folks,

I have been reading this thread quite actively. My PD is in Sept 2013, so my story is not really relevant to this post but I am curious to know the future of EB based GC for India.

From what I am reading, the future looks very disturbing for EB Indian applicants without any reform. Before recession (2007-2008), it was a standard wait time of 4-4.5 years to get EB2 GC irrespective of how you started. I would have assumed recession would have made things easier but it does not appear to be so. I am wondering are there are any signals that indicate the queue stabilizing? Conversely, are there any signals that indicate the queue is getting only progressively worse?

[vizcard]

The signals are straight supply and demand. Demand is increasing (see PERM data), supply is the same or slightly decreasing. Without FB overflows, the situation could have been disastrous.

I'm afraid without reform, it will just get worse. The Republicans are actively taking up immigration (even as I type this) so perhaps there is a sliver of hope.

[TeddyKoochu]

The signals are straight supply and demand. Demand is increasing (see PERM data), supply is the same or slightly decreasing. Without FB overflows, the situation could have been disastrous.

I'm afraid without reform, it will just get worse. The Republicans are actively taking up immigration (even as I type this) so perhaps there is a sliver of hope.

Viz you are correct without FB overflows frankly its a disastrous situation. Just to add the perm statistics are heavily skewed towards India. Till last year we would make an assumption that India and China together would contribute 50%; recentlyI read that India alone contributes more than 50%, this is in a way positive because less ROW translates to more spillover but it is more backlog, so the axiom of 5 Years to get GC is pretty much gone.

[sandykolu]

Why is it that people who port from Eb3-Eb2 get to keep their EB3 priority date ? They should get the a new priority date for Eb2 based on the day they applied for porting. I believe its unfair to the people who have waited to qualify under Eb2 only to find that there are folks who got in this queue jumping from Eb3 and gaining experience/qualification while waiting in this queue. Porting is absolutely fine but porting with keeping the PD under a different category is what I dont get.

[redwood]

Viz you are correct without FB overflows frankly its a disastrous situation. Just to add the perm statistics are heavily skewed towards India. Till last year we would make an assumption that India and China together would contribute 50%; recentlyI read that India alone contributes more than 50%, this is in a way positive because less ROW translates to more spillover but it is more backlog, so the axiom of 5 Years to get GC is pretty much gone.

To give you the correct numbers for PERM (I +C)

2010 - 47%
2011 - 58%
2012 - 61%
2013 - 65%

From the trend 2014 would be more like 66 - 68%

Some Sources below

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification_2012.pdf
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2013_YTD_Q4.pdf

[vizcard]

Why is it that people who port from Eb3-Eb2 get to keep their EB3 priority date ? They should get the a new priority date for Eb2 based on the day they applied for porting. I believe its unfair to the people who have waited to qualify under Eb2 only to find that there are folks who got in this queue jumping from Eb3 and gaining experience/qualification while waiting in this queue. Porting is absolutely fine but porting with keeping the PD under a different category is what I dont get.

I've been gripping about this for a long time. It is what it is. Nothing about the current immigration system is fair. EB3s are getting their GCs before EB2s just because they are from a different country. Its all a major cluster. Hopefully things will improve in the near future.

[idiotic]

To give you the correct numbers for PERM (I +C)

2010 - 47%
2011 - 58%
2012 - 61%
2013 - 65%

From the trend 2014 would be more like 66 - 68%

Some Sources below

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification_2012.pdf
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2013_YTD_Q4.pdf

Instead of percentages its better to put the actual numbers certified as the base is different.

[idiotic]

Why is it that people who port from Eb3-Eb2 get to keep their EB3 priority date ? They should get the a new priority date for Eb2 based on the day they applied for porting. I believe its unfair to the people who have waited to qualify under Eb2 only to find that there are folks who got in this queue jumping from Eb3 and gaining experience/qualification while waiting in this queue. Porting is absolutely fine but porting with keeping the PD under a different category is what I dont get.

I think its good because it is basically the same person. One has suffered long enough in EB3 and letting him suffer again in EB2 in back of the queue is unfair.

[AC_1980]

I have an urgent question I would like to get everyone's thoughts on:

1. I am the primary applicant, wife is dependent applicant.

2. We filed for 485 on Feb 2012, PD is July 2009.

3. Received EAD/AP in Mar 2012 (1 year validity), then renewed for first time and received renewed cards (1 year validity) in Mar 2013.

4. Recently renewed EAD/AP for second time and received combo cards with 2 year validity (Jan 2014).

5. Wife was on H1B when she traveled to India in Sep 2012 and came back using AP. upon arrival, she was told by her employer that she will have to use EAD for employment.

6. During her trip, her previous H1 visa expired, her employer filed for H1 renewal (before she left for trip) which was pending decision, hence she used AP to enter. She received H1 approval (new H1 valid until Aug 2015) after she came back to the US, and was told by her employer that EAD is her work authorization now, moving forward. Her employer never revoked her H1. Recently, she used AP again to re-enter US after another India trip (Jan 2014).


Is her H1B status that expires on Aug 2015 still valid? She was told that her travel while H1B renewal was pending resulted in breach of H1B status. Is that true? Can she go back on H1B status?

All responses deeply appreciated.

[qesehmk]

Breach of H1B status makes it sound like she did something illegal - which she didn't.

She lost H1 status because she entered on AP. It's really as simple as that.

If she has an H1 with her right now (which you say she has) she can always go back to H1 status (as long as H1 is not expired) just in case the 485 is denied.

I have an urgent question I would like to get everyone's thoughts on:

1. I am the primary applicant, wife is dependent applicant.

2. We filed for 485 on Feb 2012, PD is July 2009.

3. Received EAD/AP in Mar 2012 (1 year validity), then renewed for first time and received renewed cards (1 year validity) in Mar 2013.

4. Recently renewed EAD/AP for second time and received combo cards with 2 year validity (Jan 2014).

5. Wife was on H1B when she traveled to India in Sep 2012 and came back using AP. upon arrival, she was told by her employer that she will have to use EAD for employment.

6. During her trip, her previous H1 visa expired, her employer filed for H1 renewal (before she left for trip) which was pending decision, hence she used AP to enter. She received H1 approval (new H1 valid until Aug 2015) after she came back to the US, and was told by her employer that EAD is her work authorization now, moving forward. Her employer never revoked her H1. Recently, she used AP again to re-enter US after another India trip (Jan 2014).


Is her H1B status that expires on Aug 2015 still valid? She was told that her travel while H1B renewal was pending resulted in breach of H1B status. Is that true? Can she go back on H1B status?

All responses deeply appreciated.

[vizcard]

Breach of H1B status makes it sound like she did something illegal - which she didn't.

She lost H1 status because she entered on AP. It's really as simple as that.

If she has an H1 with her right now (which you say she has) she can always go back to H1 status (as long as H1 is not expired) just in case the 485 is denied.

Q - i don't believe traveling on AP makes u "lose" your status per se. Theoretically you could have only AP and H1 without the EAD. In that scenario the person would still be working on a H1B status. Regardless, the original poster has nothing to worry about and the H1 that expires in 8/2015 is still valid and his wife can always fall back if needed.

[qesehmk]

Viz

Actually I should've been more clear. One loses any status the moment you leave US (not sure about US citizens though! But this includes green card holders).

You aquire a legal status when you reenter US using some sort of visa including green card. At the end of the day green card is also a visa.

AP is a special case where you enter US in some sort of a "state" which is not really status but you are allowed to be "out of status". Spec had described it quite well somewhere.

But the point is if a Person chooses to enter on AP then H1 status is not acquired. As per ability to work - the person can not have EAD and yes indeed work on H1.

The only thing I am not sure about is whether the person automatically acquires H1 upon use of H1 or does the person have to file a COS.


Q - i don't believe traveling on AP makes u "lose" your status per se. Theoretically you could have only AP and H1 without the EAD. In that scenario the person would still be working on a H1B status. Regardless, the original poster has nothing to worry about and the H1 that expires in 8/2015 is still valid and his wife can always fall back if needed.

[Kanmani]

I have an urgent question I would like to get everyone's thoughts on:

1. I am the primary applicant, wife is dependent applicant.

2. We filed for 485 on Feb 2012, PD is July 2009.

3. Received EAD/AP in Mar 2012 (1 year validity), then renewed for first time and received renewed cards (1 year validity) in Mar 2013.

4. Recently renewed EAD/AP for second time and received combo cards with 2 year validity (Jan 2014).

5. Wife was on H1B when she traveled to India in Sep 2012 and came back using AP. upon arrival, she was told by her employer that she will have to use EAD for employment.

6. During her trip, her previous H1 visa expired, her employer filed for H1 renewal (before she left for trip) which was pending decision, hence she used AP to enter. She received H1 approval (new H1 valid until Aug 2015) after she came back to the US, and was told by her employer that EAD is her work authorization now, moving forward. Her employer never revoked her H1. Recently, she used AP again to re-enter US after another India trip (Jan 2014).


Is her H1B status that expires on Aug 2015 still valid? She was told that her travel while H1B renewal was pending resulted in breach of H1B status. Is that true? Can she go back on H1B status?

All responses deeply appreciated.

AC,

Your wife can get back her H1 Status IFF her H1b is extended and approved while she is physically present in USA.

She doesn't have status right now. She is covered by AoS pending scenario.

H1B-----> Entered using AP------> Lose H1b Status and acquire AoS pending Status less state----->H1b approval with I-94 status extension --------> returns to H1b status

[triplet]

Wonder why the inventory hasn't been published yet, seems like it is generally released 2nd/3rd week of January. Will it be released with the demand data for Feb? Hope they release it early so that we can get an idea as to where things are at the moment.

[Jagan01]

Wonder why the inventory hasn't been published yet, seems like it is generally released 2nd/3rd week of January. Will it be released with the demand data for Feb? Hope they release it early so that we can get an idea as to where things are at the moment.

I think in FY2012, the Jan I485 pending inventory was released in the first week of February. So if not tomorrow, we will be seeing it next week.

[idiotic]

Please let me know how can we find the number of EB2 National Interest Waiver applications filed in a given fiscal year?

[idiotic]

Total number of PERMs (Obtained from OFLC annual report)
=================================================
Year -- India -- Total -- ROW+C

2009 -- 11387 -- 29502 -- 18115
2010 -- 28930 -- 70237 -- 41307
2011 -- 31273 -- 59863 -- 28590
2012 -- 30276 -- 54581 -- 24305
2013 -- 20925 -- 35188 -- 14263

Total number of EB2 GCs allocated (Obtained from DoS annual Visa statistics)
================================================== =============
Year -- India -- Total -- ROW+C

2009 -- 10106 -- 46016 -- 35910
2010 -- 19961 -- 53872 -- 33911
2011 -- 23997 -- 66804 -- 42807
2012 -- 19726 -- 50593 -- 30867
2013 -- 17193 -- 63461 -- 46268

This is just to find the pattern of incoming rate of PERM applications for ROW+C vs outgoing rate of GC approvals for ROW+C.. I am assuming a constant approval timeline(PERM to GC for ROW) for simplicity..

1) Incoming PERM rate for 2009 is 18115.. does not match with outgoing rate of GCs in 2010 ( 33911 ).. Any reason for this anamoly?
2) Incoming PERM rate for 2010 is 41307.. matches with outgoing rate of GCs in 2011 ( 42807 )
3) Incoming PERM rate for 2011 is 28590.. matches with outgoing rate of GCs in 2012 ( 30867 )
4) Incoming PERM rate for 2012 is 24305.. does not match with outgoing rate of GCs in 2013 ( 46268 ).. Any reason for this anamoly?

I assumed NIW cases remained almost constant here.. I could not find that info anywhere..

[Jagan01]

Total number of PERMs (Obtained from OFLC annual report)
=================================================
Year -- India -- Total -- ROW+C

2009 -- 11387 -- 29502 -- 18115
2010 -- 28930 -- 70237 -- 41307
2011 -- 31273 -- 59863 -- 28590
2012 -- 30276 -- 54581 -- 24305
2013 -- 20925 -- 35188 -- 14263

Total number of EB2 GCs allocated (Obtained from DoS annual Visa statistics)
================================================== =============
Year -- India -- Total -- ROW+C

2009 -- 10106 -- 46016 -- 35910
2010 -- 19961 -- 53872 -- 33911
2011 -- 23997 -- 66804 -- 42807
2012 -- 19726 -- 50593 -- 30867
2013 -- 17193 -- 63461 -- 46268

.

Thanks for the data. The anomaly is because of China. If you provide the data as India, China, ROW, then it will start correlating well. Remember that China is a non-factor now. They will not get more than their 3k. Their demand supply is irrelevant. So lets keep them out of the equation.

[suninphx]

So only 14263 PERM approvals in year 2013 for ROW + C ? That should bright up spill over scenario to an extent. If current PERM approval speed persists then ROW person filing PERM even this month may not get GC this FY

[Kanmani]

So only 14263 PERM approvals in year 2013 for ROW + C ? That should bright up spill over scenario to an extent. If current PERM approval speed persists then ROW person filing PERM even this month may not get GC this FY

Sun,

There were 70K approx perm applications received in FY2013, 35K completed and 35K pending at DoL. With this if they start clearing the backlog, we will end up at 1.5 years worth of load this year .

This is similar to I-140 backlog cleared last FY, the processing was slow in the 2012 and picked up in 2013. http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

Let us wait and see.

[suninphx]

Sun,

There were 70K approx perm applications received in FY2013, 35K completed and 35K pending at DoL. With this if they start clearing the backlog, we will end up at 1.5 years worth of load this year .

This is similar to I-140 backlog cleared last FY, the processing was slow in the 2012 and picked up in 2013. http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

Let us wait and see.

Kamani- thanks for additional data. I have two points here:

- the PERM rejection/audit rate has been increasing steadily
- of these pending applications EB-I would have mighty share.

And whether PERM processing picks up speed or not is any one's guess

[Kanmani]

Yes, you are correct. This might make the porters pileup slower.