EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

[Kanmani]

This is true. What is vague (and may be Kanmani can see through the legal jargon) is the interpretation of 7% country limit. Once a quarter is history - is 7% interpreted over the remaining visas or the full year limit? My hunch is it is the latter.

Q, I'll try to explain this as much I can in simple words .

Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620

This total includes FB + EB , for a non-retrogressed country this annual limit is never reached . DoS has no botheration over monitoring the visa numbers released for the "C" countries.(those countries whose dates are always current in the Visa bulletin)

In the case of both India/China, they have backlog in each and every sub-division of FB and EB. DoS has no option other than fixing 7% upper limit within the subdivision of FB and EB. This way they can monitor that 7% of F1 + 7% of F2..........+7% of EB5 will not exceed the 25,620 .

For India, 7% of Eb2 limitation is 2800 ( in a typical 140K year).

Out of 10,800 released per quarter to all EB2 countries, only 27% of 2800=756 is allotted to India per quarter. This 756 is subjected to annual limitation.

If all 10,800 are not seem to be utilized, CO by law has every right to distribute to backlogged countries. These extra visas are not counted against that 2800 total.

Again, India is eligible for 756 in the second quarter.

[Pedro Gonzales]

As mentioned in my previous post. The approvals will start slowing down once we reach closer to 200 approvals in trackitt.

As of today 162 approvals in trackitt for Oct 2013. This would translate to ~2500 real world approvals. CO will use up the annual limit ~2900 and then stop giving approvals. HOwever, if he decides to use quarterly spillover then the approvals will keep continuing. I do not believe quarterly spillovers will be applied. I firmly believe, CO will use up the annual limit of ~2900 visas and then stop giving approvals. I am getting a feeling EB2I will internally retrogress after this week and will be made U (unavailable) soon. If that happens then CO will be following a good strategy to not allow any more porting as no one can file I-485 if the date is made unavailable.

Jagan, a few observations to point out why you are wrong:
a) CO does not give or stop giving approvals. The USCIS does that. CO and the DoS can only publish the VB which determines who is eligible for approval.
b) The USCIS has never previously internally retrogressed based on annual limits for a particular country. I don't believe that they have the mechanisms in place to do so (although that wouldn't be difficult to install), and I can't find any legal justification for it. They have only internally retrogressed in the past when annual availability for a complete category was used up.
c) If there is demand from EB2I this month or next, the USCIS has to keep giving out visas. Only CO can make it U in the next VB, but that wont' kick in until December. So, if the USCIS keeps giving visas beyond the 3000 to EB2I, there is defacto quarterly spill over.

[imdeng]

Very interesting indeed. The fact that EB3ROW PD is also progressing despite the 3 year jump and EB3I PD is steady after a big jump probably indicates that a good part of the EB3 demand has been lost - either due to porting or through demand destruction.

An EB3ROW PD in 2010s means that EB2ROW should see less porting demand coming in - that will help EB2IC through better horizontal spillover numbers. Its an encouraging sign.

PS> Hi everybody. I have been lurking occasionally but have not posted much. Glad to see the forum as healthy as always.


One interesting observation EB3I demand reduced by 15,175 in the last one year (Nov 2012 to Nov 2013)

[Pedro Gonzales]

Q, I'll try to explain this as much I can in simple words .

Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620

This total includes FB + EB , for a non-retrogressed country this annual limit is never reached . DoS has no botheration over monitoring the visa numbers released for the "C" countries.(those countries whose dates are always current in the Visa bulletin)

In the case of both India/China, they have backlog in each and every sub-division of FB and EB. DoS has no option other than fixing 7% upper limit within the subdivision of FB and EB. This way they can monitor that 7% of F1 + 7% of F2..........+7% of EB5 will not exceed the 25,620 .

For India, 7% of Eb2 limitation is 2800 ( in a typical 140K year).

Out of 10,800 released per quarter to all EB2 countries, only 27% of 2800=756 is allotted to India per quarter. This 756 is subjected to annual limitation.

If all 10,800 are not seem to be utilized, CO by law has every right to distribute to backlogged countries. These extra visas are not counted against that 2800 total.

Again, India is eligible for 756 in the second quarter.

Kanmani, I agree with everything else, but the 27% limitation, by my read only applies to the enire category (EB1, EB2 etc), not to individual countries within that category. If EB2 ROW doesn't use its share of the 10,800 this Quarter (which it appears that it won't) India is permitted to use the remaining amount, but that does not increase its annual limitations. I.e, if due to QSP India uses up its annual limitation in Q1, it can be made unavailable in Q2, and doesn't have a right to an additional 756 per quarter if EB2 ROW demand materializes.

Having said that, the 10,800 is only an upper limit and there is no requirement that it be fully used in each of Q1 through Q3. In the past, COs position would have be to set the VB so that EB2I only use 1/12th of its 2,800 visas each month (including potential porting) and wait until Q4 to allot the annual spillover to EB2I so that he doesn't fall afoul of the country limits in Q4 if new EB2ROW demand materializes. This year, either he is confident that EB2I demand pre-June 15 2008 is lower than EB2I annual limitations (so no quarterly spillover is being used), or he is confident that EB2ROW demand won't materialize by the end of the year (so quarterly spillover is being used).

[gcq]

Law clearly states that per country rule isn't applicable in the quarter where there isn't enough demand for ROW. So if in later quarters demand is high enough, per-country rule will be applicable for that quarter.
I would repeat the same question you asked earlier.
Any supporting documents/law in support of this ?

[PD2008AUG25]

I would repeat the same question you asked earlier.
Any supporting documents/law in support of this ?

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-1016.html


(A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani, I agree with everything else, but the 27% limitation, by my read only applies to the enire category (EB1, EB2 etc), not to individual countries within that category. If EB2 ROW doesn't use its share of the 10,800 this Quarter (which it appears that it won't) India is permitted to use the remaining amount, but that does not increase its annual limitations. I.e, if due to QSP India uses up its annual limitation in Q1, it can be made unavailable in Q2, and doesn't have a right to an additional 756 per quarter if EB2 ROW demand materializes.

Having said that, the 10,800 is only an upper limit and there is no requirement that it be fully used in each of Q1 through Q3. In the past, COs position would have be to set the VB so that EB2I only use 1/12th of its 2,800 visas each month (including potential porting) and wait until Q4 to allot the annual spillover to EB2I so that he doesn't fall afoul of the country limits in Q4 if new EB2ROW demand materializes. This year, either he is confident that EB2I demand pre-June 15 2008 is lower than EB2I annual limitations (so no quarterly spillover is being used), or he is confident that EB2ROW demand won't materialize by the end of the year (so quarterly spillover is being used).

Yes Pedro, you are correct. 27% applies to the entire category.

Regarding the QSP discussions, my interpretation from the Nov 2013 visa bulletin (Quoted above in my earlier post today)is that CO had a clear sketch in moving the dates to june 2008. He made a reservation for the (then) future demand that could be accumulated between August 10th to September 31st i.e., demand after the release of Sept Demand data (Newly filed/interfilers-porters).

[gcq]

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-1016.html


(A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter.

This situation rarely becomes a reality. This statement is not specific to a retrogresses category ( EB2-I for example), this can happen only when total EB demand is less that total EB visas available for that quarter. With such a high demand from retrogressed countries, this will never happen most of the time including now.

if (demand (EB ROW + EB INDIA + EB CHINA) < Total Visas available )
{
do QSP
}

[PD2008AUG25]

This situation rarely becomes a reality. This statement is not specific to a retrogresses category ( EB2-I for example), this can happen only when total EB demand is less that total EB visas available for that quarter. With such a high demand from retrogressed countries, this will never happen most of the time including now.

if (demand (EB ROW + EB INDIA + EB CHINA) < Total Visas available )
{
do QSP
}

Nope.

If demand (Eb2I + Eb2C + EB2ROW) < supply (EB2)
do QSP to EB2

Note that total visas refer to individual 5 categories. look at the "or (5)" in that sentence.

How else can you explain EB1 India being current? There is always continuous QSP going on in EB1I.

[Kanmani]

This situation rarely becomes a reality. This statement is not specific to a retrogresses category ( EB2-I for example), this can happen only when total EB demand is less that total EB visas available for that quarter. With such a high demand from retrogressed countries, this will never happen most of the time including now.

if (demand (EB ROW + EB INDIA + EB CHINA) < Total Visas available )
{
do QSP
}

gcq,

Paragraph 1 of Section 203(b) is EB1, Paragraph 2 is EB2 .....etc
Under that paragraph refers to within the category EB1, EB2 etc....

PD2008AUG25is correct .

[qesehmk]

Out of 10,800 released per quarter to all EB2 countries, only 27% of 2800=756 is allotted to India per quarter. This 756 is subjected to annual limitation.

If all 10,800 are not seem to be utilized, CO by law has every right to distribute to backlogged countries. These extra visas are not counted against that 2800 total.

Again, India is eligible for 756 in the second quarter.
Kanmani thanks.

I take my words back here. I think that all numbers allocated to retrogressed countries count towards country limit regardless of what kind of numbers they are.

[gcq]

Nope.

If demand (Eb2I + Eb2C + EB2ROW) < supply (EB2)
do QSP to EB2

Note that total visas refer to individual 5 categories. look at the "or (5)" in that sentence.

How else can you explain EB1 India being current? There is always continuous QSP going on in EB1I.

Even if you consider that comparison to be within a category ( say EB2), the condition still does not apply as we know there is lot of demand within EB2-I category itself. Again, the key is "sum of EB2 ROW + EB2-I + EB2C + EB2*".
For EB1, country quota doesn't apply by the same rule or that fact that India doesn't have enough demand in EB1 category to become a retrogressed category.

[qesehmk]

We may be going in circles. So for clarity here is some explanation of visa allocation and limits.

1. Overall limit is 140K for all EB. That itself is a lower limit. Not an upper one. Any discussion on this topic alone could be a separate thread. However lets move to point 2.
2. Then there are category limits which are all hard % limits i.e. no room for interpretation. 28.6 for EB1/2/3 and 7.1 for 4/5.
3. Then there is something called as country limit which is 7% but is measured across EB and FB. It it important to note that this is limit - not quota but because most of the backlogged countries have cases that are ripe to be allocated visas - this limit practically turns into a quota. But otherwise no other country really has any quota whatsoever.
4. Then there is a provision that says every quarter USCIS should allocate not more than 27% of annual EB numbers. Again - this is upper limit but DOS tries to reach that limit so as not to waste visas in later parts of the year.

Now having said this - how does this play out in a year? Lets say there is 100K visas available for year.

So DOS starts with 27000 in Q1. And divides among all categories in their % quotas (28.6 and 7.1 for EB1/2/3 and 4/5 respectively).

It is not clear at a month level what Does DOS do. However within a quarter DOS does try to allocate 7722 from above example for EB2. There is no quota for any country at this point. So it will simply allocate to the oldest demand first. Clearly EB2I will reach its 7% very quickly. So then EB2I then stops and DOS continues with other countries that are current. If near the end of the quarter, DOS sees that there isn't enough demand within other countries it will give remaining visas to EB2I regardless of EB2I's country limit.

The question is what happens in Q2 now that EB2I may have already reached its Q2 or even the full year limit?

So first DOS will calculate Q2 EB2 numbers (7722 from above example). And again start allocating oldest first. If EB2I has already reached its limit then it will have to wait until the end of Quarter when DOS will make a determination if there are extra visas available within EB2. If indeed so, then EB2I will receive those visas regardless of the country limit.

Another question is when is 7% limit calculated within EB vs EB+FB vs within a quarter etc. My best understanding is that it is not clear. It is left to DOS discretion. I think DOS certainly uses better common sense in calculating 7% only for EB and that too at quarter or even month level in early quarters. As quarters progress perhaps in 3 or 4th quarter DOS will look across EB and FB to determine if 7% is already reached for a particular country.

I hope this helps. As I said - there are somethings we know for sure. And then there are others where we can debate endlessly because none of us really know those things. But I have tried my best to illustrate the process.

[Jagan01]

Pedro,
I will point out why I disagree with you.


Jagan, a few observations to point out why you are wrong:
a) CO does not give or stop giving approvals. The USCIS does that. CO and the DoS can only publish the VB which determines who is eligible for approval.
b) The USCIS has never previously internally retrogressed based on annual limits for a particular country. I don't believe that they have the mechanisms in place to do so (although that wouldn't be difficult to install), and I can't find any legal justification for it. They have only internally retrogressed in the past when annual availability for a complete category was used up.
c) If there is demand from EB2I this month or next, the USCIS has to keep giving out visas. Only CO can make it U in the next VB, but that wont' kick in until December. So, if the USCIS keeps giving visas beyond the 3000 to EB2I, there is defacto quarterly spill over.

In response to your point (b):
If what you are saying is true then all countires within one category should become unavailable together. If the EB2 limit is exausted then why only make EB2I unavailable. Why not EB2WW?

In response to you point (c):
I mentioned the same thing that first 3000 will be the annual quota used and post that it will be the Quarterly Spillover. The point where we differ is that you think he will continue past 3000 and I think that he will stop at 3000. As I mentioned in response to your point (b), I think EB2I can be made unavailable after it uses its quota and then again made available at end of the year to use the spillover.

[PD2008AUG25]

Even if you consider that comparison to be within a category ( say EB2), the condition still does not apply as we know there is lot of demand within EB2-I category itself. Again, the key is "sum of EB2 ROW + EB2-I + EB2C + EB2*".
For EB1, country quota doesn't apply by the same rule or that fact that India doesn't have enough demand in EB1 category to become a retrogressed category.


That equation is slightly misleading. Considering that 7% is max limit for a country and we know that only India and China uses their full allocation, resulting equation is:

EB2I (max allocation/qtr) + EB2C (max allocation/qtr) + EB2 Row usage per qtr < supply for EB2 (qtr)
do QSP.

This quarter it means that if EB2ROW < 9100, QSP is technically possible.


EB1 India demand is far in excess of 7% per-country rule. Only reason EB1 India is not retrogressed because EB1 ROW uses much less numbers and total EB1 usage is still around or below 40k. Regardless, Rule that governs EB1, also governs EB2.

[GhostWriter]

Jagan, PD2008AUG25, gcq - You might find the discussion at this link (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1197-Spillovers-Fall-Across-and-Fall-Down-How-it-Works)useful. Spec and Pedro did a great job at explaining various aspects of the spillover allocation.

[gcq]

We may be going in circles. So for clarity here is some explanation of visa allocation and limits.


Another question is when is 7% limit calculated within EB vs EB+FB vs within a quarter etc. My best understanding is that it is not clear. It is left to DOS discretion. I think DOS certainly uses better common sense in calculating 7% only for EB and that too at quarter or even month level in early quarters. As quarters progress perhaps in 3 or 4th quarter DOS will look across EB and FB to determine if 7% is already reached for a particular country.

On EB vs EB+FB, DOS uses EB+FB to determine the quota for the year. ( Not sure of Quarter. I assume DOS will have to divide the annual quota to calculate the quarterly limit). We have a proof that DOS uses this calculation from one of the 2009 visa bulletins where DOS allocated more than the 7% of the quota to EB3 S.Korea and they were not listed as retrogressed country as their total ( EB + FB ) usage was below 7%.

[qesehmk]

Yes certainly they do it. But the question is how does this then further gets calculated within a quarter or a month. That's what I was referring to in my post above that at a month or quarter level during first few quarters or months - most likely EB+FB is not considered because that time everything is wide open. As usage takes place it is easier to calculate and see who is approaching the overall limit.
On EB vs EB+FB, DOS uses EB+FB to determine the quota for the year. ( Not sure of Quarter. I assume DOS will have to divide the annual quota to calculate the quarterly limit). We have a proof that DOS uses this calculation from one of the 2009 visa bulletins where DOS allocated more than the 7% of the quota to EB3 S.Korea and they were not listed as retrogressed country as their total ( EB + FB ) usage was below 7%.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Pedro,
I will point out why I disagree with you.



In response to your point (b):
If what you are saying is true then all countires within one category should become unavailable together. If the EB2 limit is exausted then why only make EB2I unavailable. Why not EB2WW?

In response to you point (c):
I mentioned the same thing that first 3000 will be the annual quota used and post that it will be the Quarterly Spillover. The point where we differ is that you think he will continue past 3000 and I think that he will stop at 3000. As I mentioned in response to your point (b), I think EB2I can be made unavailable after it uses its quota and then again made available at end of the year to use the spillover.

You are right, the internal retrogression in May 2012 was instituted even before the entire EB2 2012 allocation was used up. I remembered it wrongly. Based on that history, what you stated could well happen. If it does, it'll certainly be a new strategy employed and one I like. Give EB2 its 3K at the beginning of the year and only give the spillover at the end of the year.

[Jagan01]

We may be going in circles. So for clarity here is some explanation of visa allocation and limits.

1. Overall limit is 140K for all EB. That itself is a lower limit. Not an upper one. Any discussion on this topic alone could be a separate thread. However lets move to point 2.
2. Then there are category limits which are all hard % limits i.e. no room for interpretation. 28.6 for EB1/2/3 and 7.1 for 4/5.
3. Then there is something called as country limit which is 7% but is measured across EB and FB. It it important to note that this is limit - not quota but because most of the backlogged countries have cases that are ripe to be allocated visas - this limit practically turns into a quota. But otherwise no other country really has any quota whatsoever.
4. Then there is a provision that says every quarter USCIS should allocate not more than 27% of annual EB numbers. Again - this is upper limit but DOS tries to reach that limit so as not to waste visas in later parts of the year.

Now having said this - how does this play out in a year? Lets say there is 100K visas available for year.

So DOS starts with 27000 in Q1. And divides among all categories in their % quotas (28.6 and 7.1 for EB1/2/3 and 4/5 respectively).

It is not clear at a month level what Does DOS do. However within a quarter DOS does try to allocate 7722 from above example for EB2. There is no quota for any country at this point. So it will simply allocate to the oldest demand first. Clearly EB2I will reach its 7% very quickly. So then EB2I then stops and DOS continues with other countries that are current. If near the end of the quarter, DOS sees that there isn't enough demand within other countries it will give remaining visas to EB2I regardless of EB2I's country limit.

The question is what happens in Q2 now that EB2I may have already reached its Q2 or even the full year limit?

So first DOS will calculate Q2 EB2 numbers (7722 from above example). And again start allocating oldest first. If EB2I has already reached its limit then it will have to wait until the end of Quarter when DOS will make a determination if there are extra visas available within EB2. If indeed so, then EB2I will receive those visas regardless of the country limit.

Another question is when is 7% limit calculated within EB vs EB+FB vs within a quarter etc. My best understanding is that it is not clear. It is left to DOS discretion. I think DOS certainly uses better common sense in calculating 7% only for EB and that too at quarter or even month level in early quarters. As quarters progress perhaps in 3 or 4th quarter DOS will look across EB and FB to determine if 7% is already reached for a particular country.

I hope this helps. As I said - there are somethings we know for sure. And then there are others where we can debate endlessly because none of us really know those things. But I have tried my best to illustrate the process.

Q,

Thanks for the detailed explanation. Whatever you mentioned makes perfect sense.

[Jagan01]

Please delete this if you seem its not relevant.

I do not know if we have focused enough on the verbose in the demand data "All eligible cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits."

If spillover was being used then the verbose should have said "unused numbers". "FY 2014 annual limits" says its all.

Trackitt update:
Total approvals in Oct 2013 = 176 (~2640)
Total new filers approvals in Oct 2013 = 40 (~600)

Annual limit of approx 3000 will hit by the end of the week and I think the approvals will freeze.

As per my interpretation of what Q said in his post, the quarterly spillover will only be applied in end of first quarter (December). The number 7722 as explained by Q changes to 10228 for this year. Here is the math:
Total annual supply (148k) * per quarter max (.27) * per category max (.286) = 11428
11428 - EB2WW demand (200) - EB2C (1000) = 10228.

This makes things interesting as all four options become open in Dec:

If CO think quarterly spillover can be applied:
1. Forward movement : If CO thinks spillover supply can allow to drain the demand until June 2008 (including the new I-485 demand). May or may not happen.
2. Dates remain June 2008: If CO thinks quarterly spillover can be applied. Approx 10228 - 3000 = 7228 new visas. He would have a decent idea about porting demand and know whether total demand before June 2008 is more than 7228 or not. If it is then dates stay at June 2008.

If CO opts not to apply quarterly spillover:
3. Dates are pushed back considerably (Sep 04): Technically to a point where CO does not have to issue any visas. If he is not going for quarterly spillover then this may happen as he would have used up the annual 3000 and left for the year.
4. Dates made U: If he is not considering quarterly spillover then there wont be visas left as annual allocation of 3000 is used up in Oct itself. It would make perfect sense to make it U so that no more porting happens.

[Jagan01]

You are right, the internal retrogression in May 2012 was instituted even before the entire EB2 2012 allocation was used up. I remembered it wrongly. Based on that history, what you stated could well happen. If it does, it'll certainly be a new strategy employed and one I like. Give EB2 its 3K at the beginning of the year and only give the spillover at the end of the year.

Hey Pedro,

I seriously hope of getting at least EAD this year :)
I feel I stand a better chance with no Quarterly spillover. Lets see. I will certainly like this new strategy :)

[gcq]

Monthly EB demand-data is stored and updated here... (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates)

Veni,

I think the demand data posted for Nov 2013 is not correct. For instance EB3-I demand for 2004 is shown as 2900. However it is the demand from year 2003 ( Prior to Jan 2004) as per this link http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[Jagan01]

Veni,

I think the demand data posted for Nov 2013 is not correct. For instance EB3-I demand for 2004 is shown as 2900. However it is the demand from year 2003 ( Prior to Jan 2004) as per this link http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Veni,

By any chance do you know any thread where we would have the data from 2009? More precisely looking for Demand Data from Oct 2009 - Mar 2010.

I think FY2014 will be pretty similar to FY2010. Such high number of approvals in Oct have only happened in the past in FY2010 and FY2012. FY2012 is not a good example as the inventory had gone down considerably. Hence, I am trying to look at data from FY2010.

[qesehmk]

Jagan - so then you agree that mathematically it is possible for EB2I to reach its annual limit in Q1 itself but that won't happen until end of Q1.
Q,

Thanks for the detailed explanation. Whatever you mentioned makes perfect sense.

[dorais]

As per this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2060-DOS-Demand-Data-Archive-FY2010-FY2013), Q and Spec are saying that Dos started publishing demand data only from March 2010.



Veni,

By any chance do you know any thread where we would have the data from 2009? More precisely looking for Demand Data from Oct 2009 - Mar 2010.

I think FY2014 will be pretty similar to FY2010. Such high number of approvals in Oct have only happened in the past in FY2010 and FY2012. FY2012 is not a good example as the inventory had gone down considerably. Hence, I am trying to look at data from FY2010.

[Jagan01]

Jagan - so then you agree that mathematically it is possible for EB2I to reach its annual limit in Q1 itself but that won't happen until end of Q1.

Q,

In your post you have mentioned everything along quarter lines. I agree to your explanation about what DoS can consume in one quarter. However, I disagree to the statement "mathematically it is possible for EB2I to reach its annual limit in Q1 itself but that won't happen until end of Q1."

Below is my explanation:
1. Currently 178 approvals on trackitt and that amounts to roughly ~2500 approvals in real world. So we will reach the limit of 2900. We will see when the visa approvals stop. I believe that annual limit of ~2900 will be used up before end of this month. Oct end is not end of Q1 and thus I disagree with your statement.
2. In FY2012, we had 291 approvals in trackitt between Oct and Nov. That would have been more than the annual limit of ~2800.
3. In FY2010, we had 178 approvals in trackitt between Oct and Nov. That would have been less than the annual limit of ~2800 but certainly more than limit for two quarters.

Let me make it clear that I am thinking of EB2I annual limit as 2963 for this year which is the minimum that it should get irrespective of spillover, etc.

[qesehmk]

Jagan

The approvals you are seeing in Oct could very well be using numbers from last year. We have discussed this quite a few times. Usually October does should higher approvals but they are not necessarily from the numbers from this year.


Q,

In your post you have mentioned everything along quarter lines. I agree to your explanation about what DoS can consume in one quarter. However, I disagree to the statement "mathematically it is possible for EB2I to reach its annual limit in Q1 itself but that won't happen until end of Q1."

Below is my explanation:
1. Currently 178 approvals on trackitt and that amounts to roughly ~2500 approvals in real world. So we will reach the limit of 2900. We will see when the visa approvals stop. I believe that annual limit of ~2900 will be used up before end of this month. Oct end is not end of Q1 and thus I disagree with your statement.
2. In FY2012, we had 291 approvals in trackitt between Oct and Nov. That would have been more than the annual limit of ~2800.
3. In FY2010, we had 178 approvals in trackitt between Oct and Nov. That would have been less than the annual limit of ~2800 but certainly more than limit for two quarters.

Let me make it clear that I am thinking of EB2I annual limit as 2963 for this year which is the minimum that it should get irrespective of spillover, etc.

[Jagan01]

Jagan

The approvals you are seeing in Oct could very well be using numbers from last year. We have discussed this quite a few times. Usually October does should higher approvals but they are not necessarily from the numbers from this year.

Q,

We have discussed several times since the demand data was published. According to many on this forum the verbose in the Notes section of demand data makes it clear that visas are coming from FY2014 allocation. For your reference, I am pasting the words from the demand data:

The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation
of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in
the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.

[qesehmk]

Jagan - DOS allocating visas is one thing but it takes time for USCIS to recognize that and finally adjust the status. That's what I am saying that althought DOS may allocated the visas in 2013 Sep, the status adjustment can happen in October.
There is no way CO can allocate 3K visas to EB2I in first 2 weeks of October. My final word on this one :)
Q,

We have discussed several times since the demand data was published. According to many on this forum the verbose in the Notes section of demand data makes it clear that visas are coming from FY2014 allocation. For your reference, I am pasting the words from the demand data:

The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation
of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in
the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.

[Kanmani]

Q and Jagan, Sorry to interrupt you guys.

This is very much similar to Year end Budget closing.

Each Department has budget allocation from Ministry of Finance (India) that has to be spent between April 1st to 31st March of every year. Since there are various agencies in-between, the closing date of 31st march applies only to Min of F . Inorder to make sure MIF to close the budget on date, the sub-ordinate departments should close their accounts as early as possible atleast by march 1st week.

This is done by calculating the march expenditure in Feb itself and pre-prepare the bills under 2013 accounts then finalize the expenditure and surrender the remaining funds to MIF. Here note that March expenditure is not occurred in reality. But the expenditure is being accounted in the overall budget under MIF.

Those Bills under March could be passed by Accounts General only after April1st of the next financial year but under the previous years accounts.

I have a strong opinion that the visa allocation is very much like that of the above .

Jagan, you quote from the DD is agreeable, but we cannot say for sure that all the oct approvals are from 2014 quota. It is possible that many of the approvals are from 2013 account and few from 2014 quota.

Many of us in this forum have a common opinion that extrapolating trackitt cases to real numbers vary by year to year, country of origin to CoO and category to category over the years.

[Jagan01]

Q and Jagan, Sorry to interrupt you guys.

This is very much similar to Year end Budget closing.

Each Department has budget allocation from Ministry of Finance (India) that has to be spent between April 1st to 31st March of every year. Since there are various agencies in-between, the closing date of 31st march applies only to Min of F . Inorder to make sure MIF to close the budget on date, the sub-ordinate departments should close their accounts as early as possible atleast by march 1st week.

This is done by calculating the march expenditure in Feb itself and pre-prepare the bills under 2013 accounts then finalize the expenditure and surrender the remaining funds to MIF. Here note that March expenditure is not occurred in reality. But the expenditure is being accounted in the overall budget under MIF.

Those Bills under March could be passed by Accounts General only after April1st of the next financial year but under the previous years accounts.

I have a strong opinion that the visa allocation is very much like that of the above .

Jagan, you quote from the DD is agreeable, but we cannot say for sure that all the oct approvals are from 2014 quota. It is possible that many of the approvals are from 2013 account and few from 2014 quota.

Many of us in this forum have a common opinion that extrapolating trackitt cases to real numbers vary by year to year, country of origin to CoO and category to category over the years.

Kanmani,
Thanks for the explanation.

The above reasoning might be correct. However, the fact that no visas were approved between Sept 20 - Sep 30, coupled with the Notes specified in the demand data update, make me believe that entire approvals in Oct are coming from FY 2014.

If what you are trying to say is correct, then there should have been approvals coming between Sep 20 to Sep 30. No approvals at all in this period is the thing that concerns me. I agree that your explanation gives perfect reasoning in a year when USCIS is lagging behind and cant use up the quota by Sep 30. However, here USCIS was sitting idle and CO specifically mentions that "Cases were held at Visa Offices until numbers became available". I do not think CO could have made it any clear.

[gcq]

Jagan

The approvals you are seeing in Oct could very well be using numbers from last year. We have discussed this quite a few times. Usually October does should higher approvals but they are not necessarily from the numbers from this year.

Completely agree. I know at least one of my friends who was current for 2-3 months but was approved only in October after repetitive follow up with USCIS. I suspect DOS has kept the dates unchanged to let USCIS use up all visas. On another note I believe USCIS has become inefficient/overloaded lately because of the administrative action taken by Obama for illegal kids aka Dreamers.

[qesehmk]

I am sorry but this is wishful thinking.
However it's just as likely that he got approved in October 1st week because the visas had really exhausted in mid September 2013. Do you agree?

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

My date is in last week of July '08. Any chances the dates might move in the next few bulletins because of govt shutdown/PERM slowdown or any tangible movement shall 've to wait till the last qtr?

[gcq]

However it's just as likely that he got approved in October 1st week because the visas had really exhausted in mid September 2013. Do you agree?

From what we can see, there was an explicit communication about visas running out and there was a simultaneous correlating phenomenon of no approvals for the last 2 weeks in September. This shows that the approvals this year must be from the 2014 quota. I would really like to believe otherwise, but I find the other explanation only wishful thinking.

Also, I know that CO is bound by a lot of laws, but what he is dealing with is an extremely sensitive inventory system. Ultimately laws are only as useful as their ability to get implemented in an effective manner. If I was CO, I would see a lack of demand from other categories and a pending inventory at EB2-I and simply start assigning visas to EB2-I. If demand in other categories picks up, make EB2-I unavailable. If EB2-I reaches the 3000 mark, make it unavailable and be done with it. That reduces headache and it does not break the "important law". Ultimately, CO needs to ensure that all 148K visas are utilized, each country get its fair share and each category gets its fair share. Those are the main goals. Everything else is secondary.

I Believe (rather hope) that EB2-I should be made unavailable after it hits the 3000 mark until the spillover season starts.

As for my friend, he was told in mid september that he could hear the good news anytime by an L2 officer.

CO might have some leeway in managing visa allocations. However he cannot disregard laws as is written. There is an explicit law stating that he cannot assign the entire years quota until 4th quarter. He hasn't broken it so far and won't in future IMO. Whenever I read jagan's post, it sounds like a wishful thinking to me. While discussing these issues on the forum, we should detach our personal case from the discussion. Otherwise we loose objectivity.

If USCIS was efficient as many here likes to believe and CO was allocating this years quota in first month, USCIS would approve all the cases and report it back to DOS. DOS would then change the visa bulletin to reflect that. But that is not what has happened in Nov bulletin. Dates remained steady for EB3-I and EB2-I. This can never happen if our assumptions about USCIS and DOS are true. It has to move forward or backward at least for India.

[qesehmk]

IIWTT - looking at the demand data and the way dates have not retrogressed - you should probably get GC by 1st or 2nd calendar quarter of 2014.

If CO chooses to do quarterly spillover then it could be as soon as this december. Good luck.


My date is in last week of July '08. Any chances the dates might move in the next few bulletins because of govt shutdown/PERM slowdown or any tangible movement shall 've to wait till the last qtr?

[PD2008AUG25]

CO might have some leeway in managing visa allocations. However he cannot disregard laws as is written. There is an explicit law stating that he cannot assign the entire years quota until 4th quarter. He hasn't broken it so far and won't in future IMO. Whenever I read jagan's post, it sounds like a wishful thinking to me. While discussing these issues on the forum, we should detach our personal case from the discussion. Otherwise we loose objectivity.



Have you ever seen an instance where CO has used previous year's quota? From what we know concepts like visa wastage, attempts to change law to recapture won't exist if he could use previous year's quota. How many times he had used phrase like "to better utilize available number". IMO, using previous year's numbers is equally wishful as using entire year's quota.

Hence, QSP is the most likely explanation. I know, CO is not fond of it, given how he was burned after overusing numbers in 2011. But at least, we know that he has used it in past, it is sanctioned by law and there are potential reasons for using this quarter.

[helooo]

IIWTT - looking at the demand data and the way dates have not retrogressed - you should probably get GC by 1st or 2nd calendar quarter of 2014.

If CO chooses to do quarterly spillover then it could be as soon as this december. Good luck.

Hi Q,
So July08 can get GC without moving the dates or he should be current when he gets GC?

[gcq]

Have you ever seen an instance where CO has used previous year's quota? From what we know concepts like visa wastage, attempts to change law to recapture won't exist if he could use previous year's quota. How many times he had used phrase like "to better utilize available number". IMO, using previous year's numbers is equally wishful as using entire year's quota.

Hence, QSP is the most likely explanation. I know, CO is not fond of it, given how he was burned after overusing numbers in 2011. But at least, we know that he has used it in past, it is sanctioned by law and there are potential reasons for using this quarter.
This is not using previous year's quota. 2013 visas were allocated in 2013 itself. (Using 2013 visas in 2014 is illegal as well.) USCIS assigned visa numbers to applicants in 2013. However they took a while to approve it which finally happened in 2014. This has happened in the past too. People got approved even after bulletin had retrogressed. Behind the scenes everything is happening as per the law, when we look from outside it looks different.

[gcq]

How do you explain what happened in 2012? He ran out of EB2-I numbers well into March and had to make it unavailable the rest of the year.

Let's say he gives 3000 visas now and calls it QSP. What happens if the EB2-ROW demand increases in future? Is he still liable to give the remaining 2200 visas to EB2I? The law is conflicting. It states a) do QSP and b) Don't exceed country limits.

P.S. I wouldn't call Jagan's position wishful thinking because he is being on the conservative side. He and I think the numbers being used are from the 2014 quota and he and I "wish" EB2I get retrogressed until the spillover season. You (and others) believe approvals are under 2013 quota, there is no new porting demand, there is no QSP and yet dates remain where they are and will continue to be so in near future. Given the history of EB2I, THAT would be wishful thinking.

That is a mistake by CO. He corrected it by making it unavailable. That is the exact reason why CO should be very careful in over-allocating. If he under-allocates, he can always catch up in the last quarter.

[qesehmk]

Hi Q,
So July08 can get GC without moving the dates or he should be current when he gets GC?
Oh no no... The dates will have to move forward for that.

How do you explain what happened in 2012? He ran out of EB2-I numbers well into March and had to make it unavailable the rest of the year.

That could very well happen when QSP is actually applied. EB2I can easily reach its annual limit and then CO stops applying spillover as he anticipates more demand in later part of year. Also that became a good pretext for him to retrogress dates to a level that was stupid. Now why he would impose severe retro? None of us would know. But we can speculate. My theory is - that is his way to discourage EB2I folks. I hope I am wrong.


I am curious Q what a very conservative person (like spec) has to say on this. I know you tend to be on the aggressive side. My view is that given the fact that the announcement came of visa numbers getting over and a simultaneous noticeable drop in approvals is clear enough proof that any approvals happening in October are coming from the 2014 numbers. I would be really glad if it were otherwise, but I find the "otherwise" scenario wishful thinking.
Sport - I think Spec will have to speak for himself. But the only way EB2I could receive 3K visas in first two weeks of October are:
1. If they are actually from prior year.
2. CO breaks the 27% rule and simply allocates EB2I the full year numbers.
3. CO applies QSP for Q1 anticipating less demand in other categories way ahead of time.

#2 and #3 seems much less realistic to me than #1. So my thinking is not about being aggressive or conservative but more about what is realistically possible. But of course different people can have different opinions. So I would concede that.

[helooo]

[QUOTE=qesehmk;44321]Oh no no... The dates will have to move forward for that.
So,If CO applies QSP then it will be next VB?

[PD2008AUG25]

This is not using previous year's quota. 2013 visas were allocated in 2013 itself. (Using 2013 visas in 2014 is illegal as well.) USCIS assigned visa numbers to applicants in 2013. However they took a while to approve it which finally happened in 2014. This has happened in the past too. People got approved even after bulletin had retrogressed. Behind the scenes everything is happening as per the law, when we look from outside it looks different.


How do you explain lack of approvals between 20 Sep and 30 Sep? If it is announced officially that visas are over for FY13, followed by no approvals until 1 Oct, I can't see how visas could be from FY13. If you say USCIS is inefficient and overloaded because of DACA, doesn't it seem like too much of an coincidence when suddenly approvals start raining on 1 Oct?

[qesehmk]

So,If CO applies QSP then it will be next VB?
If so - yes. But if history is any precedent - he won't.

[Jagan01]

As for my friend, he was told in mid september that he could hear the good news anytime by an L2 officer.

CO might have some leeway in managing visa allocations. However he cannot disregard laws as is written. There is an explicit law stating that he cannot assign the entire years quota until 4th quarter. He hasn't broken it so far and won't in future IMO. Whenever I read jagan's post, it sounds like a wishful thinking to me. While discussing these issues on the forum, we should detach our personal case from the discussion. Otherwise we loose objectivity.

If USCIS was efficient as many here likes to believe and CO was allocating this years quota in first month, USCIS would approve all the cases and report it back to DOS. DOS would then change the visa bulletin to reflect that. But that is not what has happened in Nov bulletin. Dates remained steady for EB3-I and EB2-I. This can never happen if our assumptions about USCIS and DOS are true. It has to move forward or backward at least for India.

gcq,
I haven't called anyone's logic to be wishful thinking. I have due respect for every theory and would like to discuss using numbers. I am all up for a poll, if necessary, to see where people stand.

Also, I would advice you to get a dictionary. Below is the meaning of wishful thinking.
"Wishful thinking is the formation of beliefs and making decisions according to what might be pleasing to imagine instead of by appealing to evidence, rationality, or reality. Studies have consistently shown that holding all else equal, subjects will predict positive outcomes to be more likely than negative outcomes (see valence effect)."

Surely its pleasing for each and everyone of us to believe that visas approved in OCT 2013 are coming from 2013 numbers. Its good for you, good for sportsfan, good for me, good for everyone. Now, I am saying that it is not coming from FY2013 and is coming from FY2014. So I am thinking of a scenario which is NOT PLEASING. I do not understand how that can be wishful thinking. I am also looking at EVIDENCE (Notes section of Demand Data and the fact that no one got approved between Sep 20 - Sep 30). In fact the other theory saying that numbers are coming from FY2013 has not yet answered the basic question "Why no visas between 20 - Sep 30?". Don't you think that is neglecting evidence?

[Jagan01]

I was looking at the historical trends from FY2008 - FY2013. Only twice before has there been such high number of approvals in OCT. All number below are trackitt numbers. You can consider trackitt to be approximately 7% of actual numbers. This might not be accurate but just an approximation.

FY2010: High approvals in OCT (178). However, the date was nicely set. The demand after OCT was not huge and thus gradual approvals in the following months. Total approvals from OCT to FEB only 230. Thus CO pushed date ahead by one month in Mar and proceeded cautiously. Important thing to note is that total approvals from Oct to Feb was 230 (~3450). This is nowhere close to the actual numbers that EB2I might get in that year (including direct + spillover). Hence no retrogression.

FY 2012: High approvals in OCT. Between Oct and Mar, there were 1490 (~22350) approvals. CO realized that it has exceeded EB2I direct + spillover potential and has to make it U.

I am thinking he is going on the FY2010 route. He has conveniently placed the date at June 2008. There is ~1000 demand prior to that. Thee will always be porting and it is around ~5000. CO thinks that he can handle these ~6000 cases and still be within the (annual EB2I limit + annual EB2I spillover potential). He knows that as of today, EB2I should have 3000 + 5000 (from 8000 additional that showed up in DD).

Its only when he thinks that the numbers will reach closer to (the annual EB2I limit + annual EB2I spillover potential), that he decides to make it U.

I wish that it becomes U or moves forward to include my PD :). However, I predict, that it will stay at June 2008 as CO seems to have found this sweet spot which he thinks he can easily handle in FY 2014.

[gcq]

gcq,
I haven't called anyone's logic to be wishful thinking. I have due respect for every theory and would like to discuss using numbers. I am all up for a poll, if necessary, to see where people stand.

Also, I would advice you to get a dictionary. Below is the meaning of wishful thinking.
"Wishful thinking is the formation of beliefs and making decisions according to what might be pleasing to imagine instead of by appealing to evidence, rationality, or reality. Studies have consistently shown that holding all else equal, subjects will predict positive outcomes to be more likely than negative outcomes (see valence effect)."

Surely its pleasing for each and everyone of us to believe that visas approved in OCT 2013 are coming from 2013 numbers. Its good for you, good for sportsfan, good for me, good for everyone. Now, I am saying that it is not coming from FY2013 and is coming from FY2014. So I am thinking of a scenario which is NOT PLEASING. I do not understand how that can be wishful thinking. I am also looking at EVIDENCE (Notes section of Demand Data and the fact that no one got approved between Sep 20 - Sep 30). In fact the other theory saying that numbers are coming from FY2013 has not yet answered the basic question "Why no visas between 20 - Sep 30?". Don't you think that is neglecting evidence?

No approvals between Sep 20-30 doesn't mean all applications subject to to 2013 quota were approved by Sep 20. By Sep 20, all visas from 2013 were assigned to applications that were either approved/not yet approved. Some of these applications were approved only in October. Assuming that all the approvals from October were because of 2014 quota is misleading and not based on facts. CO cannot and will not allocate entire years's quota in first month - that is a fact supported by law and history. If some of you don't want to believe that, I would call it wishful thinking ( not based on facts). Nothing personal, but a bit frustrated that people don't want to follow facts and history.

[Jagan01]

No approvals between Sep 20-30 doesn't mean all applications subject to to 2013 quota were approved by Sep 20. By Sep 20, all visas from 2013 were assigned to applications that were either approved/not yet approved. Some of these applications were approved only in October. Assuming that all the approvals from October were because of 2014 quota is misleading and not based on facts. CO cannot and will not allocate entire years's quota in first month - that is a fact supported by law and history. If some of you don't want to believe that, I would call it wishful thinking ( not based on facts). Nothing personal, but a bit frustrated that people don't want to follow facts and history.

Well you may call it whatever you want. Again, I will repeat, you seem to not understand the meaning of wishful. I have given you the dictionary meaning. I have given you as simple an explanation about what wishful means, as I would give to a 4th grader. Yet if you want to call it wishful, then only god can save you.

Lets talk about Facts and History:
1. Please quote examples of the year when you have seen that a previous year FY visas are assigned to a new year and there were no approvals in the last 10 days of September. Specifically there a stream of approvals between Sep 1 and 20 and then ZERO approvals between Sep 20 - 30. Merely using the terms FACTS and HISTORY does not suffice. Tell me the year. Give Examples. If you dont have one then please refrain from using terms facts and history.
2. Facts are right in from of everyone. You don't even want to believe what CO says. I am following the facts put forward by CO.
3. And by your logic, why were there no approvals from Sep 20 - 30? you still have not explained "Why no approvals". Its like saying, yes I have money to buy food, yes I am starving, but I will wait 10 days and not eat anything, JUST FOR FUN. That sounds absurd.

[gcq]

Well you may call it whatever you want. Again, I will repeat, you seem to not understand the meaning of wishful. I have given you the dictionary meaning. I have given you as simple an explanation about what wishful means, as I would give to a 4th grader. Yet if you want to call it wishful, then only god can save you.

Lets talk about Facts and History:
1. Please quote examples of the year when you have seen that a previous year FY visas are assigned to a new year and there were no approvals in the last 10 days of September. Specifically there a stream of approvals between Sep 1 and 20 and then ZERO approvals between Sep 20 - 30. Merely using the terms FACTS and HISTORY does not suffice. Tell me the year. Give Examples. If you dont have one then please refrain from using terms facts and history.
2. Facts are right in from of everyone. You don't even want to believe what CO says. I am following the facts put forward by CO.
3. And by your logic, why were there no approvals from Sep 20 - 30? you still have not explained "Why no approvals". Its like saying, yes I have money to buy food, yes I am starving, but I will wait 10 days and not eat anything, JUST FOR FUN. That sounds absurd.

1. I don't have the exact dates as I am recalling this from my memory after being on immigration forums from 2007. This has happened post July Fiasco. I have seen members posting on other forums many times.
2. I don't believe what CO says. Especially the ones he says it on visa bulletin. Many times he fills in visa bulletin with information just to write something. Sometimes he is serious. So I don't waste my time reading too much into his "explanations". He has erred many times and bluffed many times. Again if you ask me proof I have read visa bulletins in the past and then realized how speculative he was in some of those bulletins. For the record I have even spoken to CO to correct his misinterpretation of the law in terms of country caps. So I don't believe he is the absolute standard. For your information I have gone through INA country cap and allocation part to have a sensible conversation with him. I don't think some of you have even read INA properly. That is why a few of you guys keep misinterpreting the law and speculating.
3. I have been following my friend closely over the past 3 months about his approval actively. So I know first hand what I am talking about. Also I came to know how clueless many L2 officers are. One of them even said "We don't give details about the case to individuals".

[Jagan01]

1. I don't have the exact dates as I am recalling this from my memory after being on immigration forums from 2007. This has happened post July Fiasco. I have seen members posting on other forums many times.
2. I don't believe what CO says. Especially the ones he says it on visa bulletin. Many times he fills in visa bulletin with information just to write something. Sometimes he is serious. So I don't waste my time reading too much into his "explanations". He has erred many times and bluffed many times. Again if you ask me proof I have read visa bulletins in the past and then realized how speculative he was in some of those bulletins. For the record I have even spoken to CO to correct his misinterpretation of the law in terms of country caps. So I don't believe he is the absolute standard. For your information I have gone through INA country cap and allocation part to have a sensible conversation with him. I don't think some of you have even read INA properly. That is why a few of you guys keep misinterpreting the law and speculating.
3. I have been following my friend closely over the past 3 months about his approval actively. So I know first hand what I am talking about. Also I came to know how clueless many L2 officers are. One of them even said "We don't give details about the case to individuals".

gcq,

In your entire post, you have mentioned, you have done this and that. How CO has been wrong in the past in bulletins, etc.

But again, there is no example of prior YEAR that you have. There is no document links that you provide. So overall there is no FACT coming from your side. Rather than discrediting the CO, please try and provide supportive documents or numbers to support your claims.

I have given you facts:
1. DD notes section - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
2. NO approvals from Sep 20 - Sep 30 - trackitt data

[gcq]

gcq,

In your entire post, you have mentioned, you have done this and that. How CO has been wrong in the past in bulletins, etc.

But again, there is no example of prior YEAR that you have. There is no document links that you provide. So overall there is no FACT coming from your side. Rather than discrediting the CO, please try and provide supportive documents or numbers to support your claims.

I have given you facts:
1. DD notes section - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
2. NO approvals from Sep 20 - Sep 30 - trackitt data

As for providing proof, to be frank, I don't have time to do that. I don't think even if I provide proof you are going to change your "belief". Please read INA thoroughly and you will come at conclusions that I and more knowledgeable people have arrived at. To convince you without you reading INA properly is a futile attempt.

1. I didn't mean to say October numbers were never allocated. My point about this is entire 2014 quota was not released in October. Part of October approvals is from 2013. I have provided my first hand experience of my friend. If you don't want to consider that, I don't mind. I am not going to spend any more time trying to convince you.

2. I have already provided explanation for that. You continue to pretend that I never did.

Please continue to believe what you would like, it is upto you. Or read INA and get educated. There is only one thing that is absolute, INA. CO or his actions are not a standard to rely on. He is human being and can and has made mistakes.
Again it is up to you whether you want to speculate !

[gcq]

But the thing is we did not see any approval at all in the last few days of September coinciding the DOS memo that visas had run out. If according to your theory, had there been a lag of a few days between the time a visa is assigned and the trackitt status is updated, we still should have seen a stream of approvals in the last few days of September.

I don't doubt that some approvals in October are from FY2013 quota. However 90% of them should not be. You take the other position, but how can you ignore the "no approval" period in September simultaneously? Is there any other reason such as the USCIS doing other things in those few days?

What are you relying on for your theory that there were no approvals past September 20 ? Trackitt ? Not every applicant visit trackitt and even if they receive approval, they may not post it. So the assumption that there were no approvals past Sep 30 is on a shaky ground !

[PD2008AUG25]

That will be it from me. For my sake, I hope you are right, but the realist in me has succumbed to the fact that QSP may be happening. The optimist in me is hoping that jagan's theory is right (INA notwithstanding) and CO will stop the floodgate once "sufficient" EB2I numbers are approved. I don't know what that "sufficient" is. If we are in the QSP territory, no one knows.

I can think of few scenarios as to what CO may be up to with QSP.

CO presumes/knows that there is a fixed number of excess ROW visas that could be allocated to EB2I this quarter..say roughly 5k. So he keeps the date where they are. He knows that EB2I demand will eventually cross that number as porters and late filers start using up visas. He doesn't expect that to happen at least by November end, and possibly by December end.

Why would he do this? two reasons:

1) He doesn't like to retrogress unless he really has to. This situation gives Eb2I few more months of sanity.
2) He wants to keep workload for adjudicators somewhat even across the quarters. Imagine madness if Q1 is very light because EB2I doesn't have numbers and EB2ROW doesn't have demand and Q4 is very hectic as they have now much more applications to process with goal of wasting no numbers.

Alternate scenario could be, he may have same or higher number of EB2ROW available, but he wants to wait until last month to judge exact number and then for December bulletin, he forwards EB2I few weeks/months. This may depend on rate of EB2I approvals in rest of October and November. If there isn't much demand remaining from EB2I or demand is in pipeline, he may have more numbers to use for December.

[Jagan01]

I can think of few scenarios as to what CO may be up to with QSP.

CO presumes/knows that there is a fixed number of excess ROW visas that could be allocated to EB2I this quarter..say roughly 5k. So he keeps the date where they are. He knows that EB2I demand will eventually cross that number as porters and late filers start using up visas. He doesn't expect that to happen at least by November end, and possibly by December end.

Why would he do this? two reasons:

1) He doesn't like to retrogress unless he really has to. This situation gives Eb2I few more months of sanity.
2) He wants to keep workload for adjudicators somewhat even across the quarters. Imagine madness if Q1 is very light because EB2I doesn't have numbers and EB2ROW doesn't have demand and Q4 is very hectic as they have now much more applications to process with goal of wasting no numbers.

Alternate scenario could be, he may have same or higher number of EB2ROW available, but he wants to wait until last month to judge exact number and then for December bulletin, he forwards EB2I few weeks/months. This may depend on rate of EB2I approvals in rest of October and November. If there isn't much demand remaining from EB2I or demand is in pipeline, he may have more numbers to use for December.

My theory was along the same lines. CO knows approximate spillover and is sure that he wont overuse spillover if the dates are at June 08. He has found a sweet spot in June 08 and will keep it there. He is not violating any laws in the process.

I do not think dates will move ahead even by a day. Check the porting applications. Almost 5k filed between Aug and Sep 2013. Approximately 600 of them have got approvals so far. Thus many remain and they will all be eligible to get their GC by Nov second week. Hence if CO does not stop after the annual quota of 3000, then I think he will keep the dates steady as he knows demand is coming up.

[Jagan01]

As for providing proof, to be frank, I don't have time to do that. I don't think even if I provide proof you are going to change your "belief". Please read INA thoroughly and you will come at conclusions that I and more knowledgeable people have arrived at. To convince you without you reading INA properly is a futile attempt.

1. I didn't mean to say October numbers were never allocated. My point about this is entire 2014 quota was not released in October. Part of October approvals is from 2013. I have provided my first hand experience of my friend. If you don't want to consider that, I don't mind. I am not going to spend any more time trying to convince you.

2. I have already provided explanation for that. You continue to pretend that I never did.

Please continue to believe what you would like, it is upto you. Or read INA and get educated. There is only one thing that is absolute, INA. CO or his actions are not a standard to rely on. He is human being and can and has made mistakes.
Again it is up to you whether you want to speculate !

Still no proof , no documents, no evidence.

I think it is best to ignore things that are in people's mind and not in documents.

[bzabza]

Gurus,

This is my first post. Any prediction for EB2I July-21-2008?

Appreciate your response.

[qesehmk]

I think it is quite clear that there is difference of opinion/analysis. No point in arguing further. Unlike other blogs we respectfully disagree over here. So let's let this issue rest here. Everybody has made sufficient case for his/her viewpoint by now. Let readers read all that and make up their own mind.
Still no proof , no documents, no evidence.

I think it is best to ignore things that are in people's mind and not in documents.

[RGVJSR]

Hello Q / Members,

For EB-2 India following is the details from pending I-485 inventory data published:

------------May 2012 --Oct --2012 --Jan 2013--- Apr 2013 ---Jul 2013
CY 2007 -----4904 --------5142 -------5177 -------5298 -------5392
CY 2008 ----15136 --------15897 ----16020 ------16027 ------16125
CY 2009 -----13429 -------14199 ----14199 ------14171 ------14146

1.Why is it remaining constant even after major Q-4 spillover of FY-2012 ?
2.In GC allocation data published India EB-2 gets approx. 20K each in last 3 years(FY 10,11,12). Even then why it remains constant ?

Please clarify . Thanks for your time and attention.

-RGV1

[PD2008AUG25]

Gurus,

This is my first post. Any prediction for EB2I July-21-2008?

Appreciate your response.

Anywhere from December to July. More likely July.

[qesehmk]

RG - which data did you use?

The last pending 485 inventory is from July (unless I have missed something) and so obviously it wouldn't include the huge reduction we expect to see due to Q4 spillover.


Hello Q / Members,

For EB-2 India following is the details from pending I-485 inventory data published:

------------May 2012 --Oct --2012 --Jan 2013--- Apr 2013 ---Jul 2013
CY 2007 -----4904 --------5142 -------5177 -------5298 -------5392
CY 2008 ----15136 --------15897 ----16020 ------16027 ------16125
CY 2009 -----13429 -------14199 ----14199 ------14171 ------14146

1.Why is it remaining constant even after major Q-4 spillover of FY-2012 ?
2.In GC allocation data published India EB-2 gets approx. 20K each in last 3 years(FY 10,11,12). Even then why it remains constant ?

Please clarify . Thanks for your time and attention.

-RGV1

[bzabza]

Anywhere from December to July. More likely July.

Thank you.

[satwgl]

Hello Gurus,

This is my first post in this forum.

My PD is 09-OCT-2008 and currently Iam on EAD but wanted to check what are my chances in getting GC.

Appreciate your responses.

Thanks.

[Kanmani]

Hello Q / Members,

For EB-2 India following is the details from pending I-485 inventory data published:

------------May 2012 --Oct --2012 --Jan 2013--- Apr 2013 ---Jul 2013
CY 2007 -----4904 --------5142 -------5177 -------5298 -------5392
CY 2008 ----15136 --------15897 ----16020 ------16027 ------16125
CY 2009 -----13429 -------14199 ----14199 ------14171 ------14146

1.Why is it remaining constant even after major Q-4 spillover of FY-2012 ?
2.In GC allocation data published India EB-2 gets approx. 20K each in last 3 years(FY 10,11,12). Even then why it remains constant ?

Please clarify . Thanks for your time and attention.

-RGV1

RGV,

1. There was no spillover in the year 2012-Qr4. It happened during FY 2012 where priority dates were gradually advanced from 2007to may 2010, Flood gates were opened and new I-485 applications were collected and accounted into the inventory.

FY-2012 was the year when approvals came up in a random manner, applicants with PD in 2008 got approved ahead of 2007-ers (IVAMS allows this kind of visa request whenever the PD is current)

Dates were internally retrogressed and became unavailable starting from May 2012 visa bulletin, as a result, applicants with PD 2007 were struck and remained unaltered in the inventory.

2. Many applicants missed their chance in 2007 opening and filed their I-485 later, during 2011 opening. Also, EB3 applicants are constantly upgrading their category, hence EB2 approvals were nullified with the new numbers that are being constantly added into the inventory over the years.

[RGVJSR]

RG - which data did you use?

The last pending 485 inventory is from July (unless I have missed something) and so obviously it wouldn't include the huge reduction we expect to see due to Q4 spillover.

Hello Q,


You are right in saying that Q-4 spillover(FY-2013 ) data is not reflected in July 2013-- I-485 inventory data because SO is in month of Aug / Sep 2013 .
Also now I understand that there was no Q-4 spillover in FY-2012.

Next I-485 inventory data should give lot of idea of pending cases and actual approval in FY-2013.
Thanks.
-RGV1

[RGVJSR]

RGV,

1. There was no spillover in the year 2012-Qr4. It happened during FY 2012 where priority dates were gradually advanced from 2007to may 2010, Flood gates were opened and new I-485 applications were collected and accounted into the inventory.

FY-2012 was the year when approvals came up in a random manner, applicants with PD in 2008 got approved ahead of 2007-ers (IVAMS allows this kind of visa request whenever the PD is current)

Dates were internally retrogressed and became unavailable starting from May 2012 visa bulletin, as a result, applicants with PD 2007 were struck and remained unaltered in the inventory.

2. Many applicants missed their chance in 2007 opening and filed their I-485 later, during 2011 opening. Also, EB3 applicants are constantly upgrading their category, hence EB2 approvals were nullified with the new numbers that are being constantly added into the inventory over the years.

Hello Kanmani,
U made it clear.Thanks. I was out of touch with this numbers for last 1 year. Your PD is few days (Jun 2009) from mine. Do you expect we will get PR in FY-2014. What is best case / worst case time (Month/Yr) ? Your expert thoughts ?
-RGV

[eb2visa]

As the Demand Data is out and we kind of know how many are pending, Gurus could you please update the predictions on the first page for 2014

[YTeleven]

You will know in next 3 weeks when Dec'13 visa bulletin & DD comes out. Most probably you will be current in that month.
I strongly believe CO will follow the pattern which he followed in FY2012 and it is evident from the current allocations of visas to EB2-I from 01-Oct-13 to till today, he is allocating the visas even though EB2-I has a monthly quota of ~250 visas. Moreover, due to sequestration, shutdown, slowdown and year end holiday seasons there will be very very less EB2-ROW demand in Q1 and the porting is at its slowest phase, on top of this India representaion of PERM is increased to 60%. All these factors force him to follow the FY2012 pattern of allocating the visas in FY2014.


Gurus,

This is my first post. Any prediction for EB2I July-21-2008?

Appreciate your response.

[Jagan01]

You will know in next 3 weeks when Dec'13 visa bulletin & DD comes out. Most probably you will be current in that month.
I strongly believe CO will follow the pattern which he followed in FY2012 and it is evident from the current allocations of visas to EB2-I from 01-Oct-13 to till today, he is allocating the visas even though EB2-I has a monthly quota of ~250 visas. Moreover, due to sequestration, shutdown, slowdown and year end holiday seasons there will be very very less EB2-ROW demand in Q1 and the porting is at its slowest phase, on top of this India representaion of PERM is increased to 60%. All these factors force him to follow the FY2012 pattern of allocating the visas in FY2014.

It is not going to be similar to FY2012. There was a need to build inventory in FY2012. CO did it to have inventory build up so that there can be pre-adj cases which can just wait for getting numbers.

Sep 2011 visa bulletin: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5542.html
Oct 2011 I-485 inventory: http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20October%2001 %202011.pdf

The dates for EB2I were Apr 2007, in Sep 2011 bulletin. As per the Oct 2011 inventory, there were only ~3500 applications that he has after Apr 2007. Hence he needed to build inventory, as every year EB2I gets a huge spillover (15000+). With the 3500 inventory, he would not have enough pre-adj cases and hence the need to push the dates.

I believe it will be similar to FY2010. The dates will stay where they are for the first 5 months and then move ahead gradually and jump ahead in the last two months.

[YTeleven]

He has to move the dates because there were NO EB2-ROW demand at that time. Now also the same sitution, there is NO EB2-ROW demand exists and it will NOT improve till the Q2 or even Q3. So there is NO other option other than relase those VISAs to EB2-I. You will understand what I'm saying when you see the Dec. / Jan. VB & DD comes out.

It is not going to be similar to FY2012. There was a need to build inventory in FY2012. CO did it to have inventory build up so that there can be pre-adj cases which can just wait for getting numbers.

Sep 2011 visa bulletin: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5542.html
Oct 2011 I-485 inventory: http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20October%2001 %202011.pdf

The dates for EB2I were Apr 2007, in Sep 2011 bulletin. As per the Oct 2011 inventory, there were only ~3500 applications that he has after Apr 2007. Hence he needed to build inventory, as every year EB2I gets a huge spillover (15000+). With the 3500 inventory, he would not have enough pre-adj cases and hence the need to push the dates.

I believe it will be similar to FY2010. The dates will stay where they are for the first 5 months and then move ahead gradually and jump ahead in the last two months.

[Jagan01]

He has to move the dates because there were NO EB2-ROW demand at that time. Now also the same sitution, there is NO EB2-ROW demand exists and it will NOT improve till the Q2 or even Q3. So there is NO other option other than relase those VISAs to EB2-I. You will understand what I'm saying when you see the Dec. / Jan. VB & DD comes out.

Lets consider that EB2-ROW has zero demand. Lets for simplicity consider that all categories other than EB2I have zero demand. Great !!! All spillover comes to EB2I. Now EB2I can get 25000 visas in FY2014.

With the current inventory, CO still has 8000 left in 2008, 14000 in 2009, and 4000 in 2010. He can still have 26000 pre-adj cases which can get visas. He was able to give approx 8000 visas in Aug 2013 and 8000 in Sep 2013 because there were pre-adj cases ready. To distribute 25000 visas, he would need only 4 months if he has pre-adj cases.

The above numbers are exaggeration... I am just trying to point out that with zero EB2-ROW demand, EB2I will get nice spillover. However, that does not require the CO to move the dates in the upcoming months. He usually tends to wait till the last quarter.

If he does move the dates, for god know what reason, I would be happy :)

[Kanmani]

Hello Kanmani,
U made it clear.Thanks. I was out of touch with this numbers for last 1 year. Your PD is few days (Jun 2009) from mine. Do you expect we will get PR in FY-2014. What is best case / worst case time (Month/Yr) ? Your expert thoughts ?
-RGV

I think we will get it by sept FY2014.

The closure COD june 2008 gave me mixed feelings, I was happy that my wishful thinking came true though I didn't participate in the calculations. If it were September 2008 in FY2013, the entire 2009 would have passed in FY2014. I wish and hope to get more spillover in 2014 than that of in 2013. It is too early to predict.

[sreddy]

In my opinion CO just want to keep dates stable. Look at history for a minute. Opens flood gates with a huge forward movement to generate demand, then retrogress to a safer date, and keep moving forward there after until time for opening flood gates again. Numbers wise, no logic except CO knows there will be spill over from some where. Worst case if no category is expected to give any spillover, which is very unlikely, he can keep some cases pending for a month or two with some type of internal retrogession. But if porting numbers are too high, higher than last year or so, he may even move dates backwards first time.

Is it logical? may be not. But historically how much of CO's actions made perfect logical sense?

That's my take on what is going on here.


Lets consider that EB2-ROW has zero demand. Lets for simplicity consider that all categories other than EB2I have zero demand. Great !!! All spillover comes to EB2I. Now EB2I can get 25000 visas in FY2014.

With the current inventory, CO still has 8000 left in 2008, 14000 in 2009, and 4000 in 2010. He can still have 26000 pre-adj cases which can get visas. He was able to give approx 8000 visas in Aug 2013 and 8000 in Sep 2013 because there were pre-adj cases ready. To distribute 25000 visas, he would need only 4 months if he has pre-adj cases.

The above numbers are exaggeration... I am just trying to point out that with zero EB2-ROW demand, EB2I will get nice spillover. However, that does not require the CO to move the dates in the upcoming months. He usually tends to wait till the last quarter.

If he does move the dates, for god know what reason, I would be happy :)

[RGVJSR]

I think we will get it by sept FY2014.

The closure COD june 2008 gave me mixed feelings, I was happy that my wishful thinking came true though I didn't participate in the calculations. If it were September 2008 in FY2013, the entire 2009 would have passed in FY2014. I wish and hope to get more spillover in 2014 than that of in 2013. It is too early to predict.

Hello Kanmani,

I didn't understand your statement " if it were Sep 2008 in FY2013 , the entire 2009 would have passed in 2014 " FY 2013 ended in June 2008 which is not far from Sep2008. I think we need 4000 for porting+pending before June 2008 + 8000 (Jul-Dec 2008)+7000 (Jan-June 2009) + 7000(Jul-Dec 2009) , so total 26,000 for EB2-I in FY 2014 which will be historically highest to expect. Correct me if I am wrong. Is my numbers reasonable ? Your comments please . Thanks again.

Note: I have assumed 12K demand for 2008 even though demand data Nov says 9000 because some may be ported during FY 2014.

[Pedro Gonzales]

CO cannot and will not allocate entire years's quota in first month - that is a fact supported by law and history.

Not to reopen a heated debate but, it is actually supported neither by history nor by law. The law only talks about annual and quarterly quotas for an entire category (EB2, altogether), not individual countries within that category.

And as to history, South Korea has used up more than its annual quota in the first two quarters in a couple of years. I couldn't find the relevant threads on trackitt at this time. I'll edit this post as soon as i do.

To those of you who think it's possible that the lack of approvals between Sep 20th and Sep 30th was purely coincidental, let me show you the # of EB2I approvals on trackitt by day. This is date of approval stamped on their I485 approval notice, not the day they updated their trackitt profile.

Oct 17 - 9
Oct 16 - 26
Oct 15 - 12
Oct 14 - 0
Oct 13 - 0
Oct 12 - 12
Oct 11 - 7
Oct 10 - 14
Oct 9 - 18
Oct 8 - 26
Oct 7 - 27
Oct 6 - 0
Oct 5 - 0
Oct 4 - 17
Oct 3 - 23
Oct 2 - 28
Oct 1 - 5
Sep 30 - 0
Sep 29 - 0
Sep 28 - 0
Sep 27 - 0
Sep 26 - 0
Sep 25 - 0
Sep 24 - 1
Sep 23 - 0
Sep 22 - 0
Sep 21 - 0
Sep 20 - 1
Sep 19 - 2
Sep 18 - 5
Sep 17 - 40
Sep 16 - 64
Sep 15 - 2
Sep 14 - 57
Sep 13 - 59
Sep 12 - 76
Sep 11 - 57
Sep 10 - 48
Sep 9 - 43
Sep 8 - 1
Sep 7 - 24
Sep 6 - 66
Sep 5 - 40
Sep 4 - 53
Sep 3 - 40
Sep 2 - 1
Sep 1 - 2

As you can see above, the bulk of the approvals were between Sep 3 and Sep 17, there were a few approvals until Sep 20, and then only 1 for the rest of the month. The approvals started up again but at about half the rate from Oct 1. The rumours of visa exhaustion started on Sep 18th. It would be a huge coincidence that visas allocated in FY2013, just happened to start getting approvals on Oct 1 with a 10 day lull in between. It is far more likely that these Oct approvals are from the 2014 quota. Whether the 224 trackitt approvals to date account for the entire annual quota or more is unknown, so whether QSP is in effect or not is unknown, but I am certain that the EB2I is using more than its usual monthly allocation in October.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Why would he do this? two reasons:

1) He doesn't like to retrogress unless he really has to. This situation gives Eb2I few more months of sanity.
2) He wants to keep workload for adjudicators somewhat even across the quarters. Imagine madness if Q1 is very light because EB2I doesn't have numbers and EB2ROW doesn't have demand and Q4 is very hectic as they have now much more applications to process with goal of wasting no numbers.



Reason 3: Fairness - He really wants to give every original EB2I pre Jun 15, 2008 applicant his GC before retrogressing dates. He can't control USCIS's order of processing, and so he realizes many newcomers and post July 2013 porters will get their GCs too at the expense of some of the original EB2I applicants like tackle, so he wants to leave the dates current sufficiently long to get them their GCs.

[Kanmani]

RGV,

I just threw my words without any back up calculations. At this moment I think we may hardly cross june 2009 in FY14. As we know 2009 numbers are less than 2008, without even looking into real numbers , I was venting out the scenario which had not happened but if we supposedly ended up in sept'08, this june to sept '08 worth of numbers might push next year's CoD atleast 6 months ahead.

[Kanmani]

Reason 3: Fairness - He really wants to give every original EB2I pre Jun 15, 2008 applicant his GC before retrogressing dates. He can't control USCIS's order of processing, and so he realizes many newcomers and post July 2013 porters will get their GCs too at the expense of some of the original EB2I applicants like tackle, so he wants to leave the dates current sufficiently long to get them their GCs.

I like it!

[jackbrown_890]

does it say anywhere when CO can use remaining FB quota from last year?
Here is another theory...not sure if anyone has discussed this before, if someone already has, let me know i will delete my post. As from DD they know there is going to be at least 8000 visas available in 2014 for EB from FB. So as per law EB2 gets 2288 of those 8k for sure. since these numbers are not actually part of total original annual quota (40k). he can use them whenever he wants (in my understanding unless it is not allowed by law). And based on the low Eb2Row demand for months he may have decided to give 2288 (28.6% of 8000) +233(oct.) + 233 (nov.) = 2754 to EB2I. And that is how he is keeping the dates at June 2008 for EB2I (based on trackitt approvals these number is close) now for december he can still use quarterly spillover from the remaining FB visa (assigned to other EB categories) if he thinks they are not going to use those numbers in 1st quarter which is 25% of 3424 (Eb1+EB4+Eb5 from FB) (EB3 will use its 2288) = 856 + 233 (Dec.EB2 I regular) = 1089. and he can still keep the date at June 08 for December. So possibly he has 3843 (or 2987 if no quarterly SO of remaining FB visas) visas for Eb2I in the first quarter of 2014. does it make sense?

[Jagan01]

Not to reopen a heated debate but, it is actually supported neither by history nor by law. The law only talks about annual and quarterly quotas for an entire category (EB2, altogether), not individual countries within that category.

And as to history, South Korea has used up more than its annual quota in the first two quarters in a couple of years. I couldn't find the relevant threads on trackitt at this time. I'll edit this post as soon as i do.

To those of you who think it's possible that the lack of approvals between Sep 20th and Sep 30th was purely coincidental, let me show you the # of EB2I approvals on trackitt by day. This is date of approval stamped on their I485 approval notice, not the day they updated their trackitt profile.

Oct 2 - 28
Oct 1 - 5
Sep 30 - 0
Sep 29 - 0
Sep 28 - 0
...
...
...


As you can see above, the bulk of the approvals were between Sep 3 and Sep 17, there were a few approvals until Sep 20, and then only 1 for the rest of the month. The approvals started up again but at about half the rate from Oct 1. The rumours of visa exhaustion started on Sep 18th. It would be a huge coincidence that visas allocated in FY2013, just happened to start getting approvals on Oct 1 with a 10 day lull in between. It is far more likely that these Oct approvals are from the 2014 quota. Whether the 224 trackitt approvals to date account for the entire annual quota or more is unknown, so whether QSP is in effect or not is unknown, but I am certain that the EB2I is using more than its usual monthly allocation in October.

Thanks for this post Pedro....

[Pedro Gonzales]

does it say anywhere when CO can use remaining FB quota from last year?
Here is another theory...not sure if anyone has discussed this before, if someone already has, let me know i will delete my post. As from DD they know there is going to be at least 8000 visas available in 2014 for EB from FB. So as per law EB2 gets 2288 of those 8k for sure. since these numbers are not actually part of total original annual quota (40k). he can use them whenever he wants (in my understanding unless it is not allowed by law).
The 2.3K gets added to the 40K so whatever laws apply to the original 40K also govern the additional 2.3K. CO can't use them whenever he wants (outside of using them as QSP).

[titanian]

Thats not good for 2009 PD's. I dont like it. (:--

I like it!

[Jagan01]

Thats not good for 2009 PD's. I dont like it. (:--

I don't like it as well... However, it looks like it is the most probable outcome. The dates will stay at June 2008 for a long time. Long enough to give GCs to all porters who filed in Aug/Sep 2013.

Trackitt data:
There have been 228 approvals in Oct 2013 out of which 56 are first time filers (Aug filers). Almost 25% of approvals are going to first time filers.

It is surprising that there is one person who is a first time Sep filer and got his GC approved.

On an average, it is not taking more than 2 months to give GCs to first time filers. If the dates stay the same for Dec 2013, then I am guessing most first time filers would have gotten their visas and used up a lot of spillover (QSP). The chances of dates to move into 2009 are getting slimmer according to me. Doesn't it sound like early 2009 might also not make it in FY 2014 ?

I hope I am wrong and dates at least move to mid 2009 in FY 2014.

[gcq]

Not to reopen a heated debate but, it is actually supported neither by history nor by law. The law only talks about annual and quarterly quotas for an entire category (EB2, altogether), not individual countries within that category.

And as to history, South Korea has used up more than its annual quota in the first two quarters in a couple of years. I couldn't find the relevant threads on trackitt at this time. I'll edit this post as soon as i do.

To those of you who think it's possible that the lack of approvals between Sep 20th and Sep 30th was purely coincidental, let me show you the # of EB2I approvals on trackitt by day. This is date of approval stamped on their I485 approval notice, not the day they updated their trackitt profile.

........................................

As you can see above, the bulk of the approvals were between Sep 3 and Sep 17, there were a few approvals until Sep 20, and then only 1 for the rest of the month. The approvals started up again but at about half the rate from Oct 1. The rumours of visa exhaustion started on Sep 18th. It would be a huge coincidence that visas allocated in FY2013, just happened to start getting approvals on Oct 1 with a 10 day lull in between. It is far more likely that these Oct approvals are from the 2014 quota. Whether the 224 trackitt approvals to date account for the entire annual quota or more is unknown, so whether QSP is in effect or not is unknown, but I am certain that the EB2I is using more than its usual monthly allocation in October.

Pedro,

The part of my statement you quoted "CO cannot and will not allocate entire years's quota in first month - that is a fact supported by law and history." is explicitly supported by law. One of the members has quoted the law that states that.
When you say S. Korea used up more than its annual quota , S.Korea was not a retrogressed country for the year I mentioned. So applying country caps to S.Korea for that year is not valid. If I remember correctly, S.Korea had older PD and not subject to country caps. That accounted for heavy usage by S.Korea.

Trackitt is not a reliable source for tracking approvals. As Your chart already shows, only a miniscule percentage of approvals get reported on trackitt. When it comes to the end of September when approvals are anyways tapering off, chances of the approvals showing up on trackitt is NIL or close to it.

To reiterate again, I am not saying that all approvals from October are from 2013 quota. Oct has its own allocation and naturally some approvals could result from it. ( repeated this multiple times).

[gcq]

does it say anywhere when CO can use remaining FB quota from last year?
Here is another theory...not sure if anyone has discussed this before, if someone already has, let me know i will delete my post. As from DD they know there is going to be at least 8000 visas available in 2014 for EB from FB. So as per law EB2 gets 2288 of those 8k for sure. since these numbers are not actually part of total original annual quota (40k). he can use them whenever he wants (in my understanding unless it is not allowed by law). And based on the low Eb2Row demand for months he may have decided to give 2288 (28.6% of 8000) +233(oct.) + 233 (nov.) = 2754 to EB2I. And that is how he is keeping the dates at June 2008 for EB2I (based on trackitt approvals these number is close) now for december he can still use quarterly spillover from the remaining FB visa (assigned to other EB categories) if he thinks they are not going to use those numbers in 1st quarter which is 25% of 3424 (Eb1+EB4+Eb5 from FB) (EB3 will use its 2288) = 856 + 233 (Dec.EB2 I regular) = 1089. and he can still keep the date at June 08 for December. So possibly he has 3843 (or 2987 if no quarterly SO of remaining FB visas) visas for Eb2I in the first quarter of 2014. does it make sense?

This sounds more realistic !

[qriousjunta]

I don't like it as well... However, it looks like it is the most probable outcome. The dates will stay at June 2008 for a long time. Long enough to give GCs to all porters who filed in Aug/Sep 2013.

Trackitt data:
There have been 228 approvals in Oct 2013 out of which 56 are first time filers (Aug filers). Almost 25% of approvals are going to first time filers.

It is surprising that there is one person who is a first time Sep filer and got his GC approved.

On an average, it is not taking more than 2 months to give GCs to first time filers. If the dates stay the same for Dec 2013, then I am guessing most first time filers would have gotten their visas and used up a lot of spillover (QSP). The chances of dates to move into 2009 are getting slimmer according to me. Doesn't it sound like early 2009 might also not make it in FY 2014 ?

I hope I am wrong and dates at least move to mid 2009 in FY 2014.

I have a June 2010 PD , your calculation already scare me. I am looking to change job , have offers , but just wondering if i have to do PERM and 140 one more time ( i have done 5 times already ). On a positive side i see it will take atleast 2015 to reach my PD, so i can tryout my luck with new job :)

[gcq]

The 2.3K gets added to the 40K so whatever laws apply to the original 40K also govern the additional 2.3K. CO can't use them whenever he wants (outside of using them as QSP).
Not true. Visas flowing over from FB to EB is not subject to country quota. Same rules don't apply.

[qesehmk]

GCQ - I am afraid - FB gives visas to EB category as a whole effectively creating a new EB category limit. Or stated otherwise - EB limit is defined as 140K plus whatever FB gives. Thus every single visa within that limit is subject to the % limits as laid out in INA.
Not true. Visas flowing over from FB to EB is not subject to country quota. Same rules don't apply.

[gcq]

Are you saying this based on your understanding of INA ?
Q,
You maybe right in saying country quota still applies for FP spillover as per this link http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb-category-to-receive-18000-additional.html

I didn't refer to INA. However the above link has a good description of how FB to EB spillover works.
Basing on the above link, even if country cap is applicable, there are more visas per category. That means EB2-I ( or any other category) gets more visas per their original quota plus spillover as applicable under the laws. We surely don't know whether QSP is being applied. However EB2-I or any other category can get additional visas per quarter as a result of the spillover. That explains additional approvals in October if any.

[qesehmk]

Thanks gcq. Yes of course I said so based on my understanding of INA.

As per October extra approvals - I just dont see how QSP can be applied because by definition QSP is "unused visas" within category. So CO can't just say in week 1 of a quarter that "I think nobody is going to use thee visas and let me give it to retrogressed countries.". And if he does so - hypothetically - then that is not QSP. That is him doing his thing. Now if somebody wants to accuse him of doing just that - be CO's guest. I don't think that's happening at all. Whatever he did in 2012 had a very good reason - he had to build inventory. So he did what he had to do. Doesn't mean he is going to do it again ... at least not so soon. Perhaps next year.

The best explanation for any approvals is - late action by USCIS in actually closing the case, adjusting the status, printing the card, sending out to people, communicating etc. etc. Visa could've easily been granted in September.

Those interested in verifying this theory can easily do so by going to trackitt and checking all october approvals relative to november approvals for last 5 years. That will prove or disprove this theory. I clearly remember - I had done it a while back and seriously have no time to do it again. But I will be glad if somebody proves me wrong. I will learn a thing or too as well :)



Q,
You maybe right in saying country quota still applies for FP spillover as per this link http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb-category-to-receive-18000-additional.html

I didn't refer to INA. However the above link has a good description of how FB to EB spillover works.
Basing on the above link, even if country cap is applicable, there are more visas per category. That means EB2-I ( or any other category) gets more visas per their original quota plus spillover as applicable under the laws. We surely don't know whether QSP is being applied. However EB2-I or any other category can get additional visas per quarter as a result of the spillover. That explains additional approvals in October if any.

[pirhaksar]

Hi All - I am hoping someone can advise. My PD is Sep 30, 2008. I was moving jobs when my date became current in 2011 and by the time my new employer finished PERM and 140, dates retrogressed. Now, I am hopefully a year away from getting the elusive card and lo and behold hear that the new CEO wants to reclibrate job titles to meet industry standards! This may mean my title could change (although job description will remain the same and salary will be the same or higher) from the time my PERM was approved mid last year. What does this mean - hopefully not another PERM for title change which could effectively ruin my chances once again?? Considering it is taking 12 months for PERM and 140 these days, by the time Sep 30, 2008 becomes current again this time next year, I'd still be in the PERM process. So is a new PERM needed in my case and if yes are there amendment like options if any? Would appreciate some insights from the knowledgable folks here. Thanks much.

[Kanmani]

INA Section 201(d)

Worldwide level of employment-based immigrants

(1) The worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is equal to-

(A) 140,000 plus

(B) the number computed under paragraph (2).

Paragraph(2)

(C) The number computed under this paragraph for a subsequent fiscal year is the difference (if any) between the maximum number of visas which may be issued under section 203(a) (relating to family-sponsored immigrants) during the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under that section during that year.

That is, Every year worldwide EB total is 140,000 + unused FB of previous year

EMPLOYMENT - BASED PREFERENCES (From Visa bulletin)

First: Priority Workers: 28.6% of the worldwide employment-based preference level, plus any numbers not required for fourth and fifth preferences.

Second: Members of the Professions Holding Advanced Degrees or Persons of Exceptional Ability: 28.6% of the worldwide employment-based preference level, plus any numbers not required by first preference.

Third: Skilled Workers, Professionals, and Other Workers: 28.6% of the worldwide level, plus any numbers not required by first and second preferences, not more than 10,000 of which to "*Other Workers".

Fourth: Certain Special Immigrants: 7.1% of the worldwide level.

Fifth: Employment Creation: 7.1% of the worldwide level, not less than 3,000 of which reserved for investors in a targeted rural or high-unemployment area, and 3,000 set aside for investors in regional centers by Sec. 610 of Pub. L. 102-395.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Not true. Visas flowing over from FB to EB is not subject to country quota. Same rules don't apply.

Absolutely the same rules apply especially including country quota. A simple reading of the INA will show you as much. I don't have the time right now to pull the relevant sections, so I ask that you look at it on your own. If you are still of the opinion that they don't, I'll explain the details. But I request that you look through it once on your own if you haven't already.

Edit:- I see Kanmani has answered this in detail so I won't have to.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Pedro,

The part of my statement you quoted "CO cannot and will not allocate entire years's quota in first month - that is a fact supported by law and history." is explicitly supported by law. One of the members has quoted the law that states that.

I will find that post this evening and respond. My read of the law is that there is no monthly quota, only quarterly quota, and that is only at a category level. It doesn't specify what is and isn't allowed for specific countries. And I used the S. Korea example (yes it was not retrogressed, that year) because that's the only one I've seen outside of the year-end spillovers. My read of the law is that there is no distinction between retrogressed and non retrogressed countries on this specific issue.

EDIT:- I went to the beginning of page 91 and could not find that post you are referring to. It can't refer to INS sections 201, 202 and 203, all of which I know quite well and can guarantee does not reference monthly allocations.



Trackitt is not a reliable source for tracking approvals. As Your chart already shows, only a miniscule percentage of approvals get reported on trackitt. When it comes to the end of September when approvals are anyways tapering off, chances of the approvals showing up on trackitt is NIL or close to it.

To reiterate again, I am not saying that all approvals from October are from 2013 quota. Oct has its own allocation and naturally some approvals could result from it. ( repeated this multiple times).

I still disagree, unless your point is that the 2013 visa usage is a tiny % of the October approvals. I think that the vast majority, if not all of the October approvals are from the 2014 quota. While trackitt is a miniscule % of the total approvals, cumulative probability is a significant factor. The probability that there are approvals at large but none updated on trackitt is quite high, but the probability that this happens for 10 consecutive days is significantly lower. Especially, when you consider that it ticks up again exactly on October 1st. If the general trackitt populace is 5%, the probability of having 0s for 10 consecutive days followed by a hit on the 11th day is about 3%. Still a chance you are right, but not a big one.

[Jagan01]

Pedro,

I know you might have answered this in the past. I somehow cannot get to that post. I am a little confused about the process followed by the people porting from EB3 - EB2 after their I-485 has been filed. Can you please tell me what are the steps involved ? Do these people have to file a new I-485 ? Do they do PERM and I-140 again ? What is the exact process these so called interfile cases ?

The reason I am asking this question is that the numbers on trackitt are becoming increasingly confusing:
1. DD said that there were only around 1000 applications pending before June 15, 2008.
2. We have seen approximately 400 (~5500 in real world) new I-485 applications between Aug 2013 and Sep 2013. Out of these around 50 are approved (~700 in real world). So we still have around 4800 applications pending of people who filed between Aug and Sep 2013.
3. In Oct 2013, we have seen 250 approvals on trackitt. 50 come from first time filers. So 200 approvals for other applications that were filed before Aug 2013. 200 would map to ~3000 applications. According to the DD there were only 1000 known demand prior to June 15, 2008. How come we have approx 3000 approvals then.

I am just worried that the porting number might be bigger than 5-6k that everyone was predicting. Or I am seriously missing something here !!!

[gcq]

Absolutely the same rules apply especially including country quota. A simple reading of the INA will show you as much. I don't have the time right now to pull the relevant sections, so I ask that you look at it on your own. If you are still of the opinion that they don't, I'll explain the details. But I request that you look through it once on your own if you haven't already.

Edit:- I see Kanmani has answered this in detail so I won't have to.

I have conceded on that point in the post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29?p=44403#post44403

I did a quick referral on INA ( many relevant parts being familiar to me from me reading & analyzing it couple of years back)
I couldn't find an explicit statement describing country cap effect on FB spillover visas. The only way I could infer that country quota is applicable to spillover is to assume FB spillover just expands the quota, doesn't do anything else. However my common sense tells me otherwise for the following reasons.

1. Country cap is not being applied to fall-across spillover.
2. Even for FB spillover, the visas are allocated equally across categories( EB2, EB3 etc).

Considering the above factors I am inclined to believe that country quota doesn't apply for FB spillover.

However I have conceded to you argument based on the link I posted earlier and Q affirming he believes so.

INA doesn't force me to accept your view. The post by Kanmani just points to quota allocation, nothing more. If you have a specific link to INA that mentions how country-cap is applicable to FB spillovers, please let me know.

[devi_pd]

Pedro,

I know you might have answered this in the past. I somehow cannot get to that post. I am a little confused about the process followed by the people porting from EB3 - EB2 after their I-485 has been filed. Can you please tell me what are the steps involved ? Do these people have to file a new I-485 ? Do they do PERM and I-140 again ? What is the exact process these so called interfile cases ?

The reason I am asking this question is that the numbers on trackitt are becoming increasingly confusing:
1. DD said that there were only around 1000 applications pending before June 15, 2008.
2. We have seen approximately 400 (~5500 in real world) new I-485 applications between Aug 2013 and Sep 2013. Out of these around 50 are approved (~700 in real world). So we still have around 4800 applications pending of people who filed between Aug and Sep 2013.
3. In Oct 2013, we have seen 250 approvals on trackitt. 50 come from first time filers. So 200 approvals for other applications that were filed before Aug 2013. 200 would map to ~3000 applications. According to the DD there were only 1000 known demand prior to June 15, 2008. How come we have approx 3000 approvals then.

I am just worried that the porting number might be bigger than 5-6k that everyone was predicting. Or I am seriously missing something here !!!

The number of new applications is truly astounding. These dates were current in 2012 from Jan-April. Abig chunk of these may be EB2-EB2 portings who missed last time because they were probably changing companies. It'll be interesting to see how many new new applications were filed in October. Has the rate of fresh applications stayed the same or is it going down? At 5-6K porting dates should clear Dec-08 in FY14. But if porting increases further even that is a stretch.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I have conceded on that point in the post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29?p=44403#post44403

I did a quick referral on INA ( many relevant parts being familiar to me from me reading & analyzing it couple of years back)
I couldn't find an explicit statement describing country cap effect on FB spillover visas. The only way I could infer that country quota is applicable to spillover is to assume FB spillover just expands the quota, doesn't do anything else. However my common sense tells me otherwise for the following reasons.

1. Country cap is not being applied to fall-across spillover.
2. Even for FB spillover, the visas are allocated equally across categories( EB2, EB3 etc).

Considering the above factors I am inclined to believe that country quota doesn't apply for FB spillover.

Yes, there is no direct comment on the FB spillover and country caps, but the INA is quite explicit that FB spillover merely expands worldwide allocations, and so any rules that apply to the worldwide allocations automatically capture the FB spillover too, and that was what Kanmani was trying to explain in her detailed post.

From your points 1 & 2 above, I think I understand the source of your misunderstanding. I believe you are a) thinking of the FB spillover as a separate category, it is not, and b) you are not considering that SOFAD is basically the only exception to the country caps as far as EB is concerned. In a year when there is SOFAD to EB2I, every extra visa number that spills over to EB2 from FB will go to EB2I, so effectively, it looks like it the FB spillover doesn't have country caps, but in fact, no such thing is happening. The FB spillover is merely increasing the SOFAD which is what doesn't have country caps.


However I have conceded to you argument based on the link I posted earlier and Q affirming he believes so.

INA doesn't force me to accept your view. The post by Kanmani just points to quota allocation, nothing more. If you have a specific link to INA that mentions how country-cap is applicable to FB spillovers, please let me know.

Just semantics now, since we are in agreement on the core issue, but Kanmani's post does explain that the FB spillover expands the Worldwide level of employment-based immigrants from 140k for the year (to 148K for FY2014). Everything else flows from that, as she points to in the rest of her post.

Specifically, you may want to look at the country cap discussion in INA 202(a)(2), which reads:


Subject to 1a/ paragraphs (3), (4), and (5) the total number of immigrant visas made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area under subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 in any fiscal year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2 percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.

Sections 203(a) and 203(b) refer to the EB and FB categories and each has a further breakup into the categories we have all come to know and love. Further on...


(e) Special Rules for Countries at Ceiling. - If it is determined that the total number of immigrant visas made available under subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area will exceed the numerical limitation specified in subsection (a)(2) in any fiscal year, in determining the allotment of immigrant visa numbers to natives under subsections (a) and (b) of section 203, visa numbers with respect to natives of that state or area shall be allocated (to the extent practicable and otherwise consistent with this section and section 203) in a manner so that

(1) the ratio of the visa numbers made available under section 203(a) to the visa numbers made available under section 203(b) is equal to the ratio of the worldwide level of immigration under section 201(c) to such level under section 201 (d);

(2) except as provided in subsection (a)(4), ....Vivek's comment: Ignore, refers to FB2A

(3) except as provided in subsection (a)(5), the proportion of the visa numbers made available under each of paragraphs (1) through (5) of section 203(b) is equal to the ratio of the total number of visas made available under the respective paragraph to the total number of visas made available under section 203(b).

202(a)(5) refers to SOFAD, and this item 202(e)(3) is what makes it clear that the country caps don't affect SOFAD.

I hope that makes it clear that the INA is what is driving our view (Kanmani's, Q's and mine).

[Pedro Gonzales]

Pedro,

I know you might have answered this in the past. I somehow cannot get to that post. I am a little confused about the process followed by the people porting from EB3 - EB2 after their I-485 has been filed. Can you please tell me what are the steps involved ? Do these people have to file a new I-485 ? Do they do PERM and I-140 again ? What is the exact process these so called interfile cases ?

The reason I am asking this question is that the numbers on trackitt are becoming increasingly confusing:
1. DD said that there were only around 1000 applications pending before June 15, 2008.
2. We have seen approximately 400 (~5500 in real world) new I-485 applications between Aug 2013 and Sep 2013. Out of these around 50 are approved (~700 in real world). So we still have around 4800 applications pending of people who filed between Aug and Sep 2013.
3. In Oct 2013, we have seen 250 approvals on trackitt. 50 come from first time filers. So 200 approvals for other applications that were filed before Aug 2013. 200 would map to ~3000 applications. According to the DD there were only 1000 known demand prior to June 15, 2008. How come we have approx 3000 approvals then.

I am just worried that the porting number might be bigger than 5-6k that everyone was predicting. Or I am seriously missing something here !!!

Were you looking for this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=44166#post44166) post? I dont' think it addresses your concern.

I'm not an expert on the issue but my belief is that it has to be preceded by both PERM and I-140 filings. Then, only when dates are current is the interfiling request sent (or a fresh I485 if no I485 has been applied for previously). Others here will correct me if I'm wrong.

The DD was based on data as of the 7th (End of Day I believe), so subtract out the 100 before then and you get to 250 - 100 - 50 = 100 that maps to the 1,000 known demand. Two possibilities, a) The 100 maps to the 1,000 so the trackitt representation is closer to 10% of the legacy filers, or b) the trackitt representation contineus at 6% but porters pre July 2007 PDs are continuing to interfile at about 400 in October thus far.

[vizcard]

Were you looking for this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=44166#post44166) post? I dont' think it addresses your concern.

I'm not an expert on the issue but my belief is that it has to be preceded by both PERM and I-140 filings. Then, only when dates are current is the interfiling request sent (or a fresh I485 if no I485 has been applied for previously). Others here will correct me if I'm wrong.

The DD was based on data as of the 7th (End of Day I believe), so subtract out the 100 before then and you get to 250 - 100 - 50 = 100 that maps to the 1,000 known demand. Two possibilities, a) The 100 maps to the 1,000 so the trackitt representation is closer to 10% of the legacy filers, or b) the trackitt representation contineus at 6% but porters pre July 2007 PDs are continuing to interfile at about 400 in October thus far.

Interfiling does require an approved PERM and I-140. It's basically starting a new GC process but you get to keep the old PD.

(I have my own views on retaining the old PD when porting but I'll keep them to myself now as its moot)

[Jagan01]

Interfiling does require an approved PERM and I-140. It's basically starting a new GC process but you get to keep the old PD.

(I have my own views on retaining the old PD when porting but I'll keep them to myself now as its moot)

Does it require a new I-485 as well ?

I read somewhere in trackitt that the old I-485 (which was filed in first application) gets linked to the new I-140 ?

[Jagan01]

Were you looking for this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=44166#post44166) post? I dont' think it addresses your concern.

I'm not an expert on the issue but my belief is that it has to be preceded by both PERM and I-140 filings. Then, only when dates are current is the interfiling request sent (or a fresh I485 if no I485 has been applied for previously). Others here will correct me if I'm wrong.

The DD was based on data as of the 7th (End of Day I believe), so subtract out the 100 before then and you get to 250 - 100 - 50 = 100 that maps to the 1,000 known demand. Two possibilities, a) The 100 maps to the 1,000 so the trackitt representation is closer to 10% of the legacy filers, or b) the trackitt representation contineus at 6% but porters pre July 2007 PDs are continuing to interfile at about 400 in October thus far.

So with the interfile request you do not need a new I-485 ?

If that is the case then surely porting is much higher than 6k that people were estimating. There are already 400+ applications on trackitt that have filed new I-485 in last two months. That potentially is 5500+ applications. And then if interfilers are not filing new I-485 then these would be at least another few thousand.

[Kanmani]

So with the interfile request you do not need a new I-485 ?

If that is the case then surely porting is much higher than 6k that people were estimating. There are already 400+ applications on trackitt that have filed new I-485 in last two months. That potentially is 5500+ applications. And then if interfilers are not filing new I-485 then these would be at least another few thousand.

An interfile request doesn't require a new I-485. USCIS recommends only one pending I-485 per Alien number. Period.

[vizcard]

So with the interfile request you do not need a new I-485 ?

If that is the case then surely porting is much higher than 6k that people were estimating. There are already 400+ applications on trackitt that have filed new I-485 in last two months. That potentially is 5500+ applications. And then if interfilers are not filing new I-485 then these would be at least another few thousand.

Inter filers need a 485 if they never filed one before. Those with PD after July 2007 were never current and hence never filed a 485. So they would need to file new 485s. Inter filers after PD July 2007 are pretty much like new EB2 applicants.

[Jagan01]

Inter filers need a 485 if they never filed one before. Those with PD after July 2007 were never current and hence never filed a 485. So they would need to file new 485s. Inter filers after PD July 2007 are pretty much like new EB2 applicants.

Pedro, Kanmani, Viz, Q and other gurus:

Thanks for your replies.

I made the point earlier that there are 400+ applications on trackitt that have filed I-485 in Aug / Sep. That would be around 5500+ applkications. On top of that we have the other interfilers that do not have to file I-485.

I remember a previous conversation where people were saying that there would be more interfilers who have already filed I-485 compared to the ones that have not filed I-485.

That would mean a lot of interfilers that have not filed new I-485 and are still pending. What do you guys think that number is. I am thinking approximately 2k.

So essentially according to me there are 5+2+1 = 8k applications before June 2008. This looks scary enough and I do not know how people are predicting that dates can move to Mar 2009 and beyond. I think it is difficult to even move to Jan 2009?

Can someone please do some number crunching.
1. How many interfilers that filed first I-485 in Aug/Sep are pending according to you? My take 5500
2. How many interfilers that had originally filed I-485 and are just going to use the old I-485 are pending according to you? My take 2000
3. How many of the original EB2 applications that had filed I-485 in 2012 are pending according to you ? My take 500
4. How many more interfilers will we see every month? (This will increase the demand as long as dates don't go back)

[Kanmani]

The first time I-485 filers with eb2 I-140 Pd ported are not interfilers , they are one among the porters .

The term interfiler refers to those who already have I-485 applications with USCIS, and the applicants prefer to change their category by obtaining new Perm/I140 in due course , interfiling (link) their new I-140 with that of old the I-485.

Interfiling is an official term which is in use by USCIS.

[Kanmani]

I have conceded on that point in the post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29?p=44403#post44403

I did a quick referral on INA ( many relevant parts being familiar to me from me reading & analyzing it couple of years back)
I couldn't find an explicit statement describing country cap effect on FB spillover visas. The only way I could infer that country quota is applicable to spillover is to assume FB spillover just expands the quota, doesn't do anything else. However my common sense tells me otherwise for the following reasons.

1. Country cap is not being applied to fall-across spillover.
2. Even for FB spillover, the visas are allocated equally across categories( EB2, EB3 etc).

Considering the above factors I am inclined to believe that country quota doesn't apply for FB spillover.

However I have conceded to you argument based on the link I posted earlier and Q affirming he believes so.

INA doesn't force me to accept your view. The post by Kanmani just points to quota allocation, nothing more. If you have a specific link to INA that mentions how country-cap is applicable to FB spillovers, please let me know.

gcq,

Actually there is no FB spillover exists!

Many users are unfamiliar with the forum usage terms like spillover/SOFAD/Fall-down/Fall-across gets confused. Spillover is a forum usage term, while INA uses the term Otherwise Unused Numbers (OUN).

There is nothing official with the term FB Spillover, some of us are using this for no reason. I recommend someone to comeup with a new term to refer Previous year's unused FB (for time being PvYr.FB)

Last year even before DoS's announcement, Spectator pointed out that 2012's unused FB (18k) was due for 2013 EB quota. Many rookies including myself thought 18k would go to retrogressed countries as spillover.(later realised the reality with the help of Spec).


As Pedro explained above, Previous year's unused FB alters the overall EB quota inturn alters the category allocation and per country limitation.

No provisions in INA specifies the direct allocation of unused visas to retrogressed countries. I/C gets these OUN only through fallacross within the EB2 category. No by-pass route from FB.

For example, If your Basic Pay is increased by 10% in the middle of the Tax year.

What will you do?

1. Calculate Fed tax, State tax, SStx accordingly by adding Basic Pay + 10%

2. Separate that 10% to pocket and pay only tax as per Basic pay amount.


The overall EB quota is as simple as that.

I stop here.

[vizcard]

I was using a term "FB overflow" last year but "FB bonus" also works :). I think let's just call it what it is - unused FB.

[Kanmani]

I go with unused FB. Lets get other's approval too.

[Jagan01]

I think we need to revise the trackitt %. I don't think there are of the order 5K first time filers. Tottal cumulative demand including the interfilers before June 2008 should be a small enough number for the date to stay where it is.

Sports,

I do not think trackitt is more than 8%. There were 1259 approvals in Aug/Sep and we know from demand data that there were at least 16000 approvals minimum. It might be more than that. with 16000 mapping to 1259, we would have 7.8% representation in trackitt. Max 8%. It cannot be more than that.

So yes, trackitt % might not be the traditional 6% but it surely is not more than 8%.

Even with 8% representation, the figures look scary
1. First time I-485 filers since aug 2013 --> 413 --> 5162
2. The non-first time filers approved in Oct --> 263 - 57 = 206 --> 2575
3. Let us assume a best case that the 800 odd pending according to the DD before June 15, 2008 all got approved within this 2575 approvals that came in Oct.

This means already 2575 visas granted from FY2014. Another potential 5162 to be consumed by first time filers if dates continue to stay at June 2008.

I am afraid that with the dates staying at June 2008 for Dec bulletin, more than 7.5k visas would have been given out for the year and consumed by porters.

Also the 7.5k is the best case because of the below two points:
1. I am not even counting the new porters that would be porting as we speak.
2. I am assuming that the 2575 have drained all the interfile (people who do not need to file new I-485 and are porting) and the original 800 left out as per DD.

Realisitically, I think 10k will be eaten up from FY2014 by porters+pre June 2008 demand.

With less spillover predicted for FY2014, I do not see dates moving much even by the end of FY.

[erikbond101]

Pedro, Kanmani, Viz, Q and other gurus:

Can someone please do some number crunching.
1. How many interfilers that filed first I-485 in Aug/Sep are pending according to you? My take 5500 I would say 3500-4000 because I will only apply factor of 10. Remember atleast 15% are already approved from Aug 2013 filers
2. How many interfilers that had originally filed I-485 and are just going to use the old I-485 are pending according to you? My take 2000 I would say max 1000...remember we are talking pre July 2007 pending porters. More than 75% of them are already approved
3. How many of the original EB2 applications that had filed I-485 in 2012 are pending according to you ? My take 500 correct
4. How many more interfilers will we see every month? (This will increase the demand as long as dates don't go back) 300 per month



edited to correct format

[Jagan01]

edited to correct format

erikbond,

So you are saying more 1000 of type (2) and 500 of type (3) remaining as of today (Oct 22, 2013) correct... ?

[Jagan01]

At the risk of not going into detailed math, I can only say that these many first timers are not realistic. We are saying that there are 5.5K a) EB3 filers between July 07 and June 08 who are all porting, and b) first time EB2 filers who somehow never filed when the dates were current for about 5 months or so last year. It doesn't sound realistic. Someone else can correct me if I am wrong.

Also, let's assume that the worst case, 10K are eaten up as you say. Subtracting for 3K quota, that still leaves a spillover of 16K to cross into 2009. I believe this is a big spillover year due to various factors (PERM slowdown, economy worsening due to bickering in DC, EB3-ROW advance reducing the ROW porting substantially etc and finally, a potential upside to still more FB "spillover"). I believe March 2009 is realistic and June 2009 is certainly possible this FY.

P.S. We are also assuming somehow percentages are the same. This is not a realistic assumption. Case in point: Me. My own case is NOT on trackitt tracker because I "don't care" (got EAD, am happy). The people who became current after nearly 14 months of retrogression might be following all the events more intently and be on trackitt with a greater percentage than otherwise. If I had to come up with a rough estimate, it will be as follows: Approximately 1K first time EB2 filers + 100*14 EB3 to EB2 porters. The second number is as follows: Assume 400 porters per month. Also assume uniform distribution (I am generous with this because porting is certainly maximum in 2005/06 years). Then the porters without 485 are approximately 25% of all porters (considering where EB3-I date is now). I know that I am assuming that all pre-2007 have filed 485s, but that assumption is offset by my "uniform distribution" assumption. 14 is for 14 months for unavailability. Thus, there should be about half the first timers than what you indicate. If there are anywhere close to 5K, I see no way EB2-I date stays where it is. There are already reports of "fast USCIS processing". If the date still stays, we can safely assume that the numbers are lower.

Sports,

I disagree with the theory that porting demand is lower. I stick with my numbers and have shown you that trackit does amount for 8% of cases as per aug/sep 2013 events.

One important point. I know that most of us tend to think that all first time I-485 filers will be post July 2007.

You will be surprised to know that out of the 413 first time filers in Aug/Sep 2013, 105 are pre Aug 2007 PDs.
We tend to think that yes many of us missed the boat in the 5 months where EB2I leaped. But we forget easily that EB3I was current only for ONE month. If EB2I people can miss filling in a period of 5 months then why cant EB3I people miss filing in one month.

I feel there are many EB3I candidates with PDs before Aug 2007 who do not have I-485 filed. They amount for 25% of the first time I-485 applications filed in Aug/Sep of 2013.

[vizcard]

It will all become clearer when the inventory and demand data come out at the end of Q1. But in general the longer it stays at the same date or retrogresses mildly, the worse it will be for 2009ers. The additional FB though will push us in 2009.. just not sure how far.

[03March2010]

Gurus - I may be posting in the wrong place, so please point me in the right direction.

Would greatly appreciate this group's help:
Here is my situation: Applied for GC with PD of 3/3/2010, have the EAD and AP combo card valid until mid 2015. I am planning on changing jobs (in similar job codes) in coming month or so and want to take advantage of the break between jobs to travel to India. I do not expect the dates to be current for me anytime soon so I am not too concerned about USCIS picking up my file while I am out of country
Questions for this group: Can I travel between jobs (so technically I will be on no job when I enter the US (say) in 6 weeks)? Is there any requirement to have "continuous" employment while changing jobs on EAD?

What do the guru's think?

Thanks a ton!

[qesehmk]

To my knowledge, there is no such requirement to maintain a job prior to approval of GC.
Gurus - I may be posting in the wrong place, so please point me in the right direction.

Would greatly appreciate this group's help:
Here is my situation: Applied for GC with PD of 3/3/2010, have the EAD and AP combo card valid until mid 2015. I am planning on changing jobs (in similar job codes) in coming month or so and want to take advantage of the break between jobs to travel to India. I do not expect the dates to be current for me anytime soon so I am not too concerned about USCIS picking up my file while I am out of country
Questions for this group: Can I travel between jobs (so technically I will be on no job when I enter the US (say) in 6 weeks)? Is there any requirement to have "continuous" employment while changing jobs on EAD?

What do the guru's think?

Thanks a ton!

[Jagan01]

So if the people who "missed" are the ones who are predominantly filing, then they are the ones...the net total sum of porters should be no more than 400 per month. There are definitely an additional 5K filers (maybe even 6K), not 10K as you suggest. I agree with vizcard and end this by saying that this year, the date will go in 2009 for sure due to the FB spillover and the possibility that other categories may also give more.


So if the people who "missed" are the ones who are predominantly filing, then they are the ones...the net total sum of porters should be no more than 400 per month. There are definitely an additional 5K filers (maybe even 6K), not 10K as you suggest. I agree with vizcard and end this by saying that this year, the date will go in 2009 for sure due to the FB spillover and the possibility that other categories may also give more.

I am not saying that there are 10k porters. I said that 10k demand may exists prior to July 2008. Porters may be around 8k. 5-6k is the first time I-485 filers. The others would at least be another 2k. Hence porters are 8k.

It is surprising to me that people seem to stick around the figure of 300/400 porting per month. That figure is dependent upon the following:
1. Where the dates stabilize: If it becomes U then virtually 0. If it stays at June 2008 then possibly higher.
2. The candidate set: It depends upon the number of potential EB3 porters prior to the cut off date where EB2 stabilizes. For eg: There were 20k potential EB3 applicants prior to Sep 04 for most of FY2013 and these were able to hold the date and provide 300 applications. this time around the set is 30k if dates were to stay at June 2008.
3. EB3 candidates post Aug 2007: These were 0 when dates were steady at Sep 2004. They would be not zero anymore. In fact, I think there might be at least 150 per month coming from here itself.

Finally, thanks for the discussions. I was just trying to put forward that the scenario is much more problematic than what we thought it was when the Nov DD was released. If the dates move into early 2009 then I will be very very happy. But it does not appear to move much according to my calculations for the FY2014. I hope CO retrogresses the dates severely in Dec bulletin or better yet make it U.

[venkat]

There have been several people who have gone on vacations while their 485 was pending, entered using AP and had no problems whatsoever. All CBP want from you is a valid/unexpired AP showing you can be admitted as parolee. I have rarely heard CBP asking for employer letter etc.

But if you really want to be 100% safe you can choose not to tell your current employer about your new job offer that you are planning to take after your vacation.




Gurus - I may be posting in the wrong place, so please point me in the right direction.

Would greatly appreciate this group's help:
Here is my situation: Applied for GC with PD of 3/3/2010, have the EAD and AP combo card valid until mid 2015. I am planning on changing jobs (in similar job codes) in coming month or so and want to take advantage of the break between jobs to travel to India. I do not expect the dates to be current for me anytime soon so I am not too concerned about USCIS picking up my file while I am out of country
Questions for this group: Can I travel between jobs (so technically I will be on no job when I enter the US (say) in 6 weeks)? Is there any requirement to have "continuous" employment while changing jobs on EAD?

What do the guru's think?

Thanks a ton!

[cricfan]

Gurus - I may be posting in the wrong place, so please point me in the right direction.

Would greatly appreciate this group's help:
Here is my situation: Applied for GC with PD of 3/3/2010, have the EAD and AP combo card valid until mid 2015. I am planning on changing jobs (in similar job codes) in coming month or so and want to take advantage of the break between jobs to travel to India. I do not expect the dates to be current for me anytime soon so I am not too concerned about USCIS picking up my file while I am out of country
Questions for this group: Can I travel between jobs (so technically I will be on no job when I enter the US (say) in 6 weeks)? Is there any requirement to have "continuous" employment while changing jobs on EAD?

What do the guru's think?

Thanks a ton!

My PD is very close to your PD. I have used AP twice to enter US. Once before changing the job and once just after changing my job. My POE was EWR, NJ and was asked where do I work each time. They did not ask for any employer letter. just a verbal confirmation of where I worked.Everything was very smooth and even the secondary inspection did not take very long. So, my recommendation would be to have a valid job offer before going on for a vacation. But, as Q said, it is not a requirement to have continuous employment while changing jobs. I took a 3-4 days break between changing my jobs. But, I did not go outside US during that time.

[imdeng]

AFAIK your job status has nothing to do with you entering the country on an AP. AP only means that your 485 is pending. You should not have any trouble using the AP. I have known folks who entered on an AP that was about to expire in a week and they had no trouble.


Gurus - I may be posting in the wrong place, so please point me in the right direction.

Would greatly appreciate this group's help:
Here is my situation: Applied for GC with PD of 3/3/2010, have the EAD and AP combo card valid until mid 2015. I am planning on changing jobs (in similar job codes) in coming month or so and want to take advantage of the break between jobs to travel to India. I do not expect the dates to be current for me anytime soon so I am not too concerned about USCIS picking up my file while I am out of country
Questions for this group: Can I travel between jobs (so technically I will be on no job when I enter the US (say) in 6 weeks)? Is there any requirement to have "continuous" employment while changing jobs on EAD?

What do the guru's think?

Thanks a ton!

[imdeng]

Unused FB sounds good - it is factually correct, conveys all needed information, has no confusion.

I go with unused FB. Lets get other's approval too.

[bikenlalan]

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/10/23/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-october-23-2013/

EB-1. This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.
EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year.
EB-2 China. This category is expected to continue to move forward by approximately 3-5 weeks per month in each Visa Bulletin.
EB-2 India. This is the major headline from our meeting with Mr. Oppenheim – EB-2 India is expected to retrogress significantly – by several years back to late 2005 or early 2005 as early as the next Visa Bulletin. It is expected that EB-2 India will remain at that level (late 2004 or early 2005) until the summer of 2014. The rationale behind this severe retrogression in EB-2 India is that there is simply too much “demand” (number of pending cases caused by I-485 filings and EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases, plus adding dependents) in this category and the Visa Office has to stop the rate of new filings until USCIS and DOS are able to approve the pending cases and “clear the demand.”
EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to move forward significantly (up to one year) over the next one or two months to stimulate “demand” for the next several months.
EB-3 China/Philippines. Each of these two categories is expected to keep moving forward by 2 weeks per month.
EB-3 India. Unfortunately, this category continues to be oversubscribed and there is no forward movement expected in the next (December 2013) Visa Bulletin. In addition, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that a retrogression is very possible in the near future. This would be caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available. However, as a positive sign, as many EB-3 India applicants are porting into EB-2, there is some possibility that some EB-3 visa numbers may be “freed” simply because some EB-3 candidates will drop out of the EB-3 demand line after receiving a green card under a newly ported EB-2 category.
EB-5. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is on an upward trajectory and he indicated that the most recent fiscal year noted a 15% increase in EB-5 China cases. This makes it likely that there would be a cutoff date introduced towards the summer for EB-5 China (only).

[Jagan01]

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/10/23/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-october-23-2013/

EB-1. This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.
EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year.
EB-2 China. This category is expected to continue to move forward by approximately 3-5 weeks per month in each Visa Bulletin.
EB-2 India. This is the major headline from our meeting with Mr. Oppenheim – EB-2 India is expected to retrogress significantly – by several years back to late 2005 or early 2005 as early as the next Visa Bulletin. It is expected that EB-2 India will remain at that level (late 2004 or early 2005) until the summer of 2014. The rationale behind this severe retrogression in EB-2 India is that there is simply too much “demand” (number of pending cases caused by I-485 filings and EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases, plus adding dependents) in this category and the Visa Office has to stop the rate of new filings until USCIS and DOS are able to approve the pending cases and “clear the demand.”
EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to move forward significantly (up to one year) over the next one or two months to stimulate “demand” for the next several months.
EB-3 China/Philippines. Each of these two categories is expected to keep moving forward by 2 weeks per month.
EB-3 India. Unfortunately, this category continues to be oversubscribed and there is no forward movement expected in the next (December 2013) Visa Bulletin. In addition, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that a retrogression is very possible in the near future. This would be caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available. However, as a positive sign, as many EB-3 India applicants are porting into EB-2, there is some possibility that some EB-3 visa numbers may be “freed” simply because some EB-3 candidates will drop out of the EB-3 demand line after receiving a green card under a newly ported EB-2 category.
EB-5. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is on an upward trajectory and he indicated that the most recent fiscal year noted a 15% increase in EB-5 China cases. This makes it likely that there would be a cutoff date introduced towards the summer for EB-5 China (only).

Thanks for the Update... The dates retrogressing will surely lower porting...

Sports, Viz and other Gururs:
Remember my words. The porting is significantly high. All these extra numbers were porting cases. I also mentioned that this imaginative 400 per month is not true. Below is something directly from CO:
As an example, Mr. Oppenheim cited that between October 1 and October 22nd his office noted that there were approximately 800 Indian nationals who ported from EB-3 to EB-3.

Also spillover is not great from FD (EB5 and EB1 have good demand).

[Kanmani]

Thanks for the Update... The dates retrogressing will surely lower porting...

Sports, Viz and other Gururs:
Remember my words. The porting is significantly high. All these extra numbers were porting cases. I also mentioned that this imaginative 400 per month is not true. Below is something directly from CO:
As an example, Mr. Oppenheim cited that between October 1 and October 22nd his office noted that there were approximately 800 Indian nationals who ported from EB-3 to EB-3.

Also spillover is not great from FD (EB5 and EB1 have good demand).

Jagan,

This Eb3 to Eb2 porting numbers could reach the DD only if the priority date is current ( Ref my earlier posts for INA Section quote)

I would say the present high numbers denote the rush for placement in the Eb2 DD queue by the EB3ers. Otherwise, if they miss this opening, they will be stagnated in the USCIS as interfilers.

[helooo]

http://www.laborimmigration.com/2013/10/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-october-23-2013/

[rosharma]

"Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the EB-1 and EB-5 categories are relatively “popular” this year and expects more numbers to be used in these categories, compared to the past years. He cited EB-5 China category where the demand has been growing steadily (approximately 15% over the year before) and that a cutoff date for EB-5 China is possible later this fiscal year (possibly around June 2014). This high demand also means that there will be less “leftover” visa numbers available to allocate to other categories, such as EB-2 India and China which would further contribute to the slow EB-2 India and China forward movement". This piece of statement scares me. So far we have been thinking EB2-I might get more spillovers because of PERM slodowns and government shud-down. I hope Eb2-I would end up getting sizable spillovers in last quarter.

[vizcard]

Thanks for the Update... The dates retrogressing will surely lower porting...

Sports, Viz and other Gururs:
Remember my words. The porting is significantly high. All these extra numbers were porting cases. I also mentioned that this imaginative 400 per month is not true. Below is something directly from CO:
As an example, Mr. Oppenheim cited that between October 1 and October 22nd his office noted that there were approximately 800 Indian nationals who ported from EB-3 to EB-3.

Also spillover is not great from FD (EB5 and EB1 have good demand).


Jagan,

This Eb3 to Eb2 porting numbers could reach the DD only if the priority date is current ( Ref my earlier posts for INA Section quote)

I would say the present high numbers denote the rush for placement in the Eb2 DD queue by the EB3ers. Otherwise, if they miss this opening, they will be stagnated in the USCIS as interfilers.


Jagan,
800 for Oct MTD does not mean 800 per month for the rest of the year. this forum has always estimated porting to be 4000-6000 per year. It will most likely stay that way. As Kanmani points out, it could be ppl just trying to get in the EB2 line before retrogression.

As for the FD, the unused FB will more than cover any additional usage in EB1 and EB5. I fully expect all the unused FB to come to EB2I. so right off the bat we have 12K+ for this year. I have no doubt we'll be able to clear most of 2008 and prior (dates would move further ahead than that)

Like I said before, the inventory and demand data in January will give us the best picture for the year ahead.

[Kanmani]

USCIS Performance Data for 2nd quarter of FY2013 has been published. http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/allformtypes_performancedata_fy2013-qtr2.pdf

Ignore if I am late.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

With COs latest comment, I don't see how we can get into 2009 let alone end of 2008. Could the dates just come back to June '08 over next summer?

[vizcard]

Thanks for the Update... The dates retrogressing will surely lower porting...

Sports, Viz and other Gururs:
Remember my words. The porting is significantly high. All these extra numbers were porting cases. I also mentioned that this imaginative 400 per month is not true. Below is something directly from CO:
As an example, Mr. Oppenheim cited that between October 1 and October 22nd his office noted that there were approximately 800 Indian nationals who ported from EB-3 to EB-3.

Also spillover is not great from FD (EB5 and EB1 have good demand).


Jagan,

This Eb3 to Eb2 porting numbers could reach the DD only if the priority date is current ( Ref my earlier posts for INA Section quote)

I would say the present high numbers denote the rush for placement in the Eb2 DD queue by the EB3ers. Otherwise, if they miss this opening, they will be stagnated in the USCIS as interfilers.


With COs latest comment, I don't see how we can get into 2009 let alone end of 2008. Could the dates just come back to June '08 over next summer?

Nothing in his comments indicates that we won't get spillover this year. Demand up to Jan 1, 2009 is likely in 14-16K range. With the regular allocation + unused FB, we should be in the 12K range. We will certainly get 3-4K from SOFAD. I don't expect any other category to consume more than their normal quota.

[Pedro Gonzales]

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/10/23/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-october-23-2013/

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year.
EB-2 India. This is the major headline from our meeting with Mr. Oppenheim – EB-2 India is expected to retrogress significantly – by several years back to late 2005 or early 2005 as early as the next Visa Bulletin. It is expected that EB-2 India will remain at that level (late 2004 or early 2005) until the summer of 2014. The rationale behind this severe retrogression in EB-2 India is that there is simply too much “demand” (number of pending cases caused by I-485 filings and EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases, plus adding dependents) in this category and the Visa Office has to stop the rate of new filings until USCIS and DOS are able to approve the pending cases and “clear the demand.”
.

Not much news in any of these really, other than that EB5 may not give any spillover this year.
About EB2ROW, I think what he is saying is that if the sequester is lifted and the pent up PERM approvals come through, you'll have significant demand that may require a cut off date. I don't realistically see that happening before the next elections.

And the portion I bolded above really calls into question the knowledge of these guys. If you retrogress EB2I dates to stop new filings, you can't approve pent up demand, you can merely pre-adjudicate it. That pent up demand goes into inventory pending dates moving forward again in late 2014. It is the correct step for CO to take, but it won't "clear the demand".

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

So to end @ Mar '09 by the end of Sep when does CO 've to move the dates again (guestimate/prediction?)

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

This Eb3 to Eb2 porting numbers could reach the DD only if the priority date is current ( Ref my earlier posts for INA Section quote)

I would say the present high numbers denote the rush for placement in the Eb2 DD queue by the EB3ers. Otherwise, if they miss this opening, they will be stagnated in the USCIS as interfilers.

Kanmani,

One basic question:
There were many people who applied in Aug 1st week, and they have already started getting approvals since the 1st week of OCT. When do you think the CO's office (DoS) would have seen these applications?

If you are saying that the people who filed in Aug are showing up at COs office in Oct, then may be the 800 portes are coming from that number.

[qesehmk]

He can wait as late as Aug bulletin. 2 months are more than enough for USCIS / DOS to process 15-20K backlog - especially ripe backlog like EB2I.

So to end @ Mar '09 by the end of Sep when does CO 've to move the dates again (guestimate/prediction?)

[Jagan01]

Pedro, Viz, Sports

I would like to point out that you are missing a very essential thing from the news:
1. CO said that he will retrogress dates to 2005. Meaning the monthly allocation (300) will continue. This would mean that he is not counting the current approvals from the annual EB2I allocations.
2. The only theory that makes sense now, is that the current supply (visa numbers) that have been used in Oct approvals is coming from the FB unused visa allocation of 8000.
3. I think CO is planning to use up the 5500 that would have come to EB2I from the unused FB.

Why is this important.
1. If he is planning to drain this FB unused allocation of 5500 by the end of Nov, then we should se approvals continue in trackitt up until mid Nov 2013.
2. With those 5500 gone and the annual EB2I (3000) to be drained gradually by pre-2005 PDs, we would have lost the FB spillover and EB2I quota before we hit July 2014.

Frankly, I do not see the FD from other EB categories and FA from EB2ROW providing more than 4k.

If we would have 4k left at the end of the year, I do not think dates might move more than 2 months. So I find it hard to understand why the above news is not important.

Of course, if the CO said he is making it U in Dec, then it would have meant completely different strategy.

[qesehmk]

Thanks to both bikenlalan and rosharma for posting this.


http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/10/23/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-october-23-2013/

EB-1. This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.
EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year.
EB-2 China. This category is expected to continue to move forward by approximately 3-5 weeks per month in each Visa Bulletin.
EB-2 India. This is the major headline from our meeting with Mr. Oppenheim – EB-2 India is expected to retrogress significantly – by several years back to late 2005 or early 2005 as early as the next Visa Bulletin. It is expected that EB-2 India will remain at that level (late 2004 or early 2005) until the summer of 2014. The rationale behind this severe retrogression in EB-2 India is that there is simply too much “demand” (number of pending cases caused by I-485 filings and EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases, plus adding dependents) in this category and the Visa Office has to stop the rate of new filings until USCIS and DOS are able to approve the pending cases and “clear the demand.”
EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to move forward significantly (up to one year) over the next one or two months to stimulate “demand” for the next several months.
EB-3 China/Philippines. Each of these two categories is expected to keep moving forward by 2 weeks per month.
EB-3 India. Unfortunately, this category continues to be oversubscribed and there is no forward movement expected in the next (December 2013) Visa Bulletin. In addition, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that a retrogression is very possible in the near future. This would be caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available. However, as a positive sign, as many EB-3 India applicants are porting into EB-2, there is some possibility that some EB-3 visa numbers may be “freed” simply because some EB-3 candidates will drop out of the EB-3 demand line after receiving a green card under a newly ported EB-2 category.
EB-5. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is on an upward trajectory and he indicated that the most recent fiscal year noted a 15% increase in EB-5 China cases. This makes it likely that there would be a cutoff date introduced towards the summer for EB-5 China (only).
EB1 / EB2 ROW / EB2 C / EB3 CP - no new news.
EB3 ROW - it's baffling how EB3ROW is moving ahead without corresponding spike in EB2ROW. Regardless, it means EB2ROW may not have any extra visas left to give to EB2 category.
EB5 - Indeed this is a general trend and hence no new news.

EB2IC - This confirms that as the old EB3 applicants become more expert, the companies are willing to port them to EB2 and are doing it en masse. However, IMO, retrogression doesn't do anything other than increase the pain of porters because then CO is making them wait an unnecessary 1 more year. Secondly this piece of information by itself doesn't tell us anything other than the porting will be more than 2800 per year which is what EB2IC's quota is. So technically whenever porting exceeds 2800K CO can retrogress to a date where porting will fall down below 2800. However it is quite intuitive that as EB3 backlog matures, more and more people will become eligible for porting and hence porting will increase beyond 3-5K which was our original estimate.



"Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the EB-1 and EB-5 categories are relatively “popular” this year and expects more numbers to be used in these categories, compared to the past years. He cited EB-5 China category where the demand has been growing steadily (approximately 15% over the year before) and that a cutoff date for EB-5 China is possible later this fiscal year (possibly around June 2014). This high demand also means that there will be less “leftover” visa numbers available to allocate to other categories, such as EB-2 India and China which would further contribute to the slow EB-2 India and China forward movement".

This piece of statement scares me. So far we have been thinking EB2-I might get more spillovers because of PERM slodowns and government shud-down. I hope Eb2-I would end up getting sizable spillovers in last quarter.
Indeed EB1 and 5 may contribute less. But I am quite optimistic about this year too. I am going to refrain from predicting here. But I can say this - Immigration situation is becoming acute but thanks to extra 8K, EB2I will move reasonably well this year too.

[Jagan01]

This is just a wild guess!

There was close to 3K backlog entering October from previous year anyway, and when the dates move, again an equivalent backlog will exist going into 2015. Some 2K people will be greened additionally and it's impossible to say what CO will do with the FB spillover. He *cannot* use it from my perspective. He's conceded EB5 retrogression possibility (although he did the same last year and it didn't happen), so he should not use EB5 portion. He is also saying the same about EB2-ROW so he shouldn't use that too. From what I can see, he will use 2-3K numbers to approve EB2-I until mid November (or the internal retrogression might have kicked in NOW the way it did in March 2012). He might count those numbers from the annual quota or he might count them as part of the quarterly spillover...either way, it's not a big deal and for EB2-I, it makes a difference of 2 months max.

Also, going back to 2005 might be effectively making it U. He had moved EB2-ROW to 2009 and it was effectively U. We don't even know what the final date is. He will just put it to Jan 1 2004 effectively making it U. We can track the approvals going forward and my guess is that they will be minimal.

Let's not spread the fear. Each year, there are doomsday theories, but each year, things have worked out. Unless PERM processing improves, this year should be similar to last year (even considering we have less FB spillover) because EB2-ROW may provide big spillover. With the fights looming in Congress around January, I am betting on worsening PERM processing.

Sports,

I am not trying to spread fear. Do you really think that CO will only use 2-3k numbers to approve EB2-I until mid Nov ? Purely looking at the supply side you should know that number is much bigger than 2-3k. I think at least 5k of the FY2014 potential numbers will be swept out by end of nov.

Here is the logic:
Trackitt generally has 1100 - 1500 approvals annually. We see 16000 to 23000 approvals annually.
Trackit has already shown 285 approvals for this year. We have had 20% drained already.

I think the most critical set of data now is to see when the approvals start to freeze on trackitt.
1. If they stop this week then yes relatively less damage is done.
2. If they continue at this rate up until last week of Nov, we would have lost almost 40% of the EB2I potential total annual numbers.

Now coming to your second point. Of course the date the CO moves the dates back to will dictate the monthly consumption. He specifically said, late 2004 or early 2005. That is not same as U my friend.
EB3 demand data:
Prior to Jan 2004 --> 2,900
Prior to Jan 2005 --> 13,600

Late 2004, would surely mean at least a candidate set of 10000 porters. Last time during FY2012, the candidate set was 20000 porters, and we saw that they were able to eat up 300 visas monthly. So, I would expect that these porters take up at least 100 monthly. It is a small number. But it defines the strategy that CO is adopting.

[suninphx]

Ok this happens every year - and this year is no exception.

So every year we get some commentary like this from CO and without having full context of those comments many people become overly pessimistic. Also, repeated 'I told you so' are not going to help any discussion.

In my opinion- lets give it some more time, let more data come in and then we can have more meaningful discussion.

[Jagan01]

Ok this happens every year - and this year is no exception.

So every year we get some commentary like this from CO and without having full context of those comments many people become overly pessimistic. Also, repeated 'I told you so' are not going to help any discussion.

In my opinion- lets give it some more time, let more data come in and then we can have more meaningful discussion.

Sun,
One point abt why this year is different from previous. I think we are draining the numbers faster than ever before. Below is count of number of approvals in Oct in previous years from trackitt:
Oct 2009 --> 134
Oct 2010 --> 40
Oct 2011 --> 178
Oct 2012 --> 38
Oct 2013 (Still 6 days to go) --> 285

Oct 2013 approvals might end up around 320 if this madness continues. Doesn't it point to a fact that this year is different and more visas are being used up in the beginning of the year. This would also translate to less number of visas available at the end of the year.

I agree that we would have a better idea by the end of January as most of the things might have been cleared out.

[suninphx]

Sun,
One point abt why this year is different from previous. I think we are draining the numbers faster than ever before. Below is count of number of approvals in Oct in previous years from trackitt:
Oct 2009 --> 134
Oct 2010 --> 40
Oct 2011 --> 178
Oct 2012 --> 38
Oct 2013 (Still 6 days to go) --> 285

Oct 2013 approvals might end up around 320 if this madness continues. Doesn't it point to a fact that this year is different and more visas are being used up in the beginning of the year. This would also translate to less number of visas available at the end of the year.

I agree that we would have a better idea by the end of January as most of the things might have been cleared out.

Jagan,

First of all thanks for all this effort to pull out data from trackitt.

Personally, I find trackitt data very deceiving because of so many variables involved. It may provide a direction where things are heading though. Hopefully we have more clarity in Jan inventory(if we get one). The retro is going to give us plenty of time to come up with new theories. :)

I hope every one who is current gets GC before they retro.

[jackbrown_890]

Yup i agree, CO has made comments like this couple times in the past,..
but still in recent future i can't remember if he has assigned these many visa numbers to EB2I in the first month of the year...In a way it is good that few thousands Eb2I including porters got GC in the first quarter instead of waiting for the next SO season. I would like to believe the theory that most of these approvals are from 2013 numbers....
I was hoping to see 2 more things from him. but it seems like he made no comments on..
1: explanation on extra 8k.. (how did he come up with that number so early in the year) and if it is just a guesstimate,,is it conservative or not..
2: reason for high eb2I approvals in Oct..
hopefully we will find out once we have more data..

[qesehmk]

Yup i agree, CO has made comments like this couple times in the past,..
but still in recent future i can't remember if he has assigned these many visa numbers to EB2I in the first month of the year...In a way it is good that few thousands Eb2I including porters got GC in the first quarter instead of waiting for the next SO season. I would like to believe the theory that most of these approvals are from 2013 numbers....
I was hoping to see 2 more things from him. but it seems like he made no comments on..
1: explanation on extra 8k.. (how did he come up with that number so early in the year) and if it is just a guesstimate,,is it conservative or not..
2: reason for high eb2I approvals in Oct..
hopefully we will find out once we have more data..
See .... CO's job is not easy. People are pissed with him all the time. So the last thing that CO will ever do is promise moon to the backlogged people.

His job demands him to be conservative and that's what he is. So lets take things in their stride and keep looking for actual data points. I agree w Suninphx that this is year is not much different from last year in terms of how CO will approach it. So we will see a rinse and repeat of retrogression followed by forward movement. How much forward movement at this point is going to be anybody's guess. Some others have posted their calculations and guesses and to be honest I don't have a reason to disagree unless somebody starts talking about 2010. That I can guarantee we are not going to see.

[Jagan01]

Yup i agree, CO has made comments like this couple times in the past,..
but still in recent future i can't remember if he has assigned these many visa numbers to EB2I in the first month of the year...In a way it is good that few thousands Eb2I including porters got GC in the first quarter instead of waiting for the next SO season. I would like to believe the theory that most of these approvals are from 2013 numbers....
I was hoping to see 2 more things from him. but it seems like he made no comments on..
1: explanation on extra 8k.. (how did he come up with that number so early in the year) and if it is just a guesstimate,,is it conservative or not..
2: reason for high eb2I approvals in Oct..
hopefully we will find out once we have more data..

Jackbrown,

I agree that he did not say anything abt point (1). However, I think he did answer the question about your point (2) (reason for high EB2I approvals in Oct).

On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

When Oct bulletin was released (Sep fisrt week) the porting demand had not materialized. He wanted to see the extent of porting. Keeping the dates at June 2008 for Oct bulletin would have given him a fair idea. I think there was a different discussion between Q, Kanmani, Pedro, Indiani and other gurus about how visas are allocated. If I remember it correctly, CO only sets the dates and USCIS assigns visas. Please correct me if I am wrong.

So CO set the date for OCt 2013 so that he can see the demand and USCIS is doing its job of assigning the visas. May be that he extended this logic to Nov to get a better idea of porting as the sept applicants would also be able to materialize into the demand by the end of Nov.

Now CO has to reconcile and retrogress the dates. But he has got a very very good idea about the porting demand and that was the purpose of keeping the dates at June 2008 for the last two bulletins.

[primus]

Guys, after this retrogress news, I am getting freaked out. Need answer/suggestion on my queries. Appreciate your help in advance.

I have been desperately waiting for my EAD card, that is pending for last 85 days (applied on Aug. 1st). I have initiated an enquiry by local congressman on Sep. 17th for the status of I-485 and I-765. Finally USCIS reported back on 22nd October, saying:

I-765: Background check has completed and approved. Application is in transit to adjudicating office.

I-485: Under processing within the given time frame of 4 months.

My wife and daughter's EAD card have already come 4 weeks back.

Q1) Does EAD requires background check? or is it for I-485, they did?

If the background check is for I-485, then my 2 questions are as follows:

Q2) how close am I to get GC approval before date retrogress.

Q3) Ideally how long does an I-485 approval takes after a case has been given to an adjudicating officer (if PD is current and visas are available)?

Q4) Since its not 4 months completed yet, so I cannot open an SR or take infopass. Is there anything I should do to expedite the process?

PD: Sep. 1st 2006
I-485/I-131/765 receipt date: Aug 1st 2013 (first time)
Direct EB2

[vizcard]

Guys, after this retrogress news, I am getting freaked out. Need answer/suggestion on my queries. Appreciate your help in advance.

I have been desperately waiting for my EAD card, that is pending for last 85 days (applied on Aug. 1st). I have initiated an enquiry by local congressman on Sep. 17th for the status of I-485 and I-765. Finally USCIS reported back on 22nd October, saying:

I-765: Background check has completed and approved. Application is in transit to adjudicating office.

I-485: Under processing within the given time frame of 4 months.

My wife and daughter's EAD card have already come 4 weeks back.

Q1) Does EAD requires background check? or is it for I-485, they did?

If the background check is for I-485, then my 2 questions are as follows:

Q2) how close am I to get GC approval before date retrogress.

Q3) Ideally how long does an I-485 approval takes after a case has been given to an adjudicating officer (if PD is current and visas are available)?

Q4) Since its not 4 months completed yet, so I cannot open an SR or take infopass. Is there anything I should do to expedite the process?

PD: Sep. 1st 2006
I-485/I-131/765 receipt date: Aug 1st 2013 (first time)
Direct EB2


Q1) Background check is only for 485 not for EAD/AP
Q2) Its hard to say..it could happen tomorrow or not at all. (I know this is harsh but its also true)
Q3) Its hard to say again...depends on the workload, low hanging fruit, priorities pushed on him/her by superiors, etc. I really wish I could go "behind the scenes" for a week to understand what they do
Q4) Nothing you can do at this point.

I know none of what I posted will put your mind at ease but here's something that might. You WILL get your EAD regardless of retrogression and you WILL get your GC next summer. You can take that to the bank!

[primus]

Q1) Background check is only for 485 not for EAD/AP
Q2) Its hard to say..it could happen tomorrow or not at all. (I know this is harsh but its also true)
Q3) Its hard to say again...depends on the workload, low hanging fruit, priorities pushed on him/her by superiors, etc. I really wish I could go "behind the scenes" for a week to understand what they do
Q4) Nothing you can do at this point.

I know none of what I posted will put your mind at ease but here's something that might. You WILL get your EAD regardless of retrogression and you WILL get your GC next summer. You can take that to the bank!

Thank you Viz. I was unnecessarily excited after knowing that background check is passed. Seems background check does not quantify as how close am I to green card. Though I-485 status on USCIS site is still showing my case at the first stage i.e. acceptance since 8/1/13. Weird that they did not update it even after background check.

One more thing in USCIS reply to congressman, not sure why they mentioned background check approval for I-765 status update, as it is for I-485

[qesehmk]

Primus viz is abs right. Only thing i will add is u still have full nov before any possible retro. My guess is u r going to get greened without being retro. 4 months r suff for uscis. Best. Q.
Thank you Viz. I was unnecessarily excited after knowing that background check is passed. Seems background check does not quantify as how close am I to green card. Though I-485 status on USCIS site is still showing my case at the first stage i.e. acceptance since 8/1/13. Weird that they did not update it even after background check.

One more thing in USCIS reply to congressman, not sure why they mentioned background check approval for I-765 status update, as it is for I-485

[primus]

My guess is u r going to get greened without being retro. 4 months r suff for uscis. Best. Q.

In hindi, there is a saying "Tere muh me ghee shakkar" :o

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

One basic question:
There were many people who applied in Aug 1st week, and they have already started getting approvals since the 1st week of OCT. When do you think the CO's office (DoS) would have seen these applications?

If you are saying that the people who filed in Aug are showing up at COs office in Oct, then may be the 800 portes are coming from that number.

Fresh first time I485 applications filed on Aug st, whether it is direct EB2 or EB3 date ported EB2 could reach the demand data anytime even if the dates are retrogressed.

Porters who have pending EB3 I-485 might have sent their interfiling request to uscis as soon as their newly filed EB2 I-140 is approved. These interfilers are not part of DD until their new EB2 PD is current.

Since the CoD is staying for a while this time, many porters might have gotten their approval without reaching the DD itself and the rest are reaching the DD once the 2013 visa numbers are exhausted. We may not know the exact numbers until the Annual Data published.

Having said that, we cannot use this one month's data for extrapolating the annual porting numbers.

[imdeng]

Regarding CO's comments, I am surprised that EB3ROW is continuing to move forward despite significant movement in past few months. It is already in Oct-10 - an year back it was in Nov-06. A four year jump is not sufficient to generated enough demand? If there was any EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting going in then that should vanish. Rest of CO's comments were as expected - including the EB5 situation - Spec has been warning about that for a while.

It would be fun to watch the inventory data with post 07/07 figures for EB3. I think EB3ROW is going to show really low density post 07/07.

[seattlet]

Primus viz is abs right. Only thing i will add is u still have full nov before any possible retro. My guess is u r going to get greened without being retro. 4 months r suff for uscis. Best. Q.

Q any idea whether there will be internal retrogression before end of november ?

[qesehmk]

Seattlet that's going to reach quite quickly right? It's only ~300 visas per month for EB2I. The reason there was no retrogression for Oct Nov because there is no data on which CO can make that decision. Already at end of Oct he is seeing the data and announced (informally I assume) that there will be retrogression.

However as far as this guy goes - his PD is 2006. What's the chance that there are 300 applications before him? I would put that quite minimal - even if porting is happening heavy. But as per your question - yes indeed there is going to be an "internal retrogression" ( to use your term) pretty quickly in November.
Q any idea whether there will be internal retrogression before end of november ?

[primus]

However as far as this guy goes - his PD is 2006. What's the chance that there are 300 applications before him? I would put that quite minimal - even if porting is happening heavy.

Q, I kinda disagree with you here (though, I wish you were right): I believe PD and RD don't play any role as when my case will be given and processed by adjudicating officer. Because in trackitt, there are several first time filers (on 8/1/13), who have PD much after 2006 (~2008) and their cases have been approved. So its pure LUCK.

[qesehmk]

Primus - I didn't mean to give you any hope against your hope!!!

But I can say a few things with certainty and then there are things that only somebody with an insider information can tell you - which I clearly do not have.

1. Among all the cases that are ready for a visa - the visa allocation by law - must happen by PD for a specific country within a specific category. Period. There is no doubt about the law. I would bet with quite a bit of high certainty that Visa Office tries to abide by the law. There may be one off exceptions but I wouldn't bet on that.
2. When among a specific country and category - cases with later PDs are processed than cases with prior PDs - it means only one and one thing to me - that cases with prior PDs were not ready to be assigned a visa.

As per your case - I can't predict what will happen. But for an average case like yours - I think it has a very good chance it will get approved in November.

Q, I kinda disagree with you here (though, I wish you were right): I believe PD and RD don't play any role as when my case will be given and processed by adjudicating officer. Because in trackitt, there are several first time filers (on 8/1/13), who have PD much after 2006 (~2008) and their cases have been approved. So its pure LUCK.

[Jagan01]

I just saw Matt's prediction update on the trackitt website.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ar6Dprt7VeZzdElRQ1RiSzJUN0FjMU9lMURiSFJ1M Hc&usp=drive_web#gid=4

Matt,
we miss seeing your posts on this forum... Thanks for the update...

[qesehmk]

I have updated the header with general information. Throughout the year, I will update it only at a trend level. As I have said many times, I have stopped doing manual calculations. So please pardon me if there is an expectation of specific numbers. But I will keep commenting on key events and update the header.

[Jagan01]

Just an update on trackitt approvals..

Oct 2013 Approvals:
Total --> 329
First time filers --> 102

The % of first time filers has gone up. 50 out of the first 200 were first time filers. 52 out of the next 129 were first time filers.
There were 310 first time filers in Aug 2013 according to trackitt. Out of this 102 (30%) have been greened.

[Jagan01]

Question to Gurus,

When and how does the DD get updated. More specifically, I am trying to figure out the EB3 applications that are pending in the inventory.

For example:
July DD for EB3I:
July 2013
Year --EB3I------InSpecificYear
2004 --9,725-----UNKNOWN
2005 --20,975----11,250
2006 --28,550----7,575
2007 --37,775----9,225

Oct 2013 DD:
Year --EB3I-----InSpecificYear
2004 --2,900----UNKNOWN
2005 --13,600---10,700
2006 --20,550---6,950
2007 --28,975---8,475

People Ported out to EB2I just based on DD:
2005 -- 550 (4.8% ported)
2006 -- 625 (8.2% ported)
2007 -- 750 (8.13% ported)

At what stage does an application move out from EB3I to EB2I?
- After I-140 is approved ?
- After the interfiling request is filed ?
- After the visa is approved under EB2 ?

Also the trend shows that people with later PDs are more inclined to port. Hence we should be expecting higher porting for 2008 cases that have never filed I-485.

The Nov DD will look very interesting as we might see more EB3I numbers go down and EB2I go up. I would revisit the percentage at that time to try and track actual porting percentage. If we do this exercise after Nov and Dec DD then porting percentage would be clearly visible.

I expect it to be around 20% when we revisit this in Dec.

[Jagan01]

Question to Gurus,

When and how does the DD get updated. More specifically, I am trying to figure out the EB3 applications that are pending in the inventory.

For example:
July DD for EB3I:
July 2013
Year --EB3I------InSpecificYear
2004 --9,725-----UNKNOWN
2005 --20,975----11,250
2006 --28,550----7,575
2007 --37,775----9,225

Oct 2013 DD:
Year --EB3I-----InSpecificYear
2004 --2,900----UNKNOWN
2005 --13,600---10,700
2006 --20,550---6,950
2007 --28,975---8,475

People Ported out to EB2I just based on DD:
2005 -- 550 (4.8% ported)
2006 -- 625 (8.2% ported)
2007 -- 750 (8.13% ported)

At what stage does an application move out from EB3I to EB2I?
- After I-140 is approved ?
- After the interfiling request is filed ?
- After the visa is approved under EB2 ?

Also the trend shows that people with later PDs are more inclined to port. Hence we should be expecting higher porting for 2008 cases that have never filed I-485.

The Nov DD will look very interesting as we might see more EB3I numbers go down and EB2I go up. I would revisit the percentage at that time to try and track actual porting percentage. If we do this exercise after Nov and Dec DD then porting percentage would be clearly visible.

I expect it to be around 20% when we revisit this in Dec.

Another update:
Sep 2013 first time filers have also started getting approved. This shows that it is possible for first time filers to get approved within 60 days of filing the petition. Something to watch out for as CO can use this to get better idea of demand every year. If he had advanced the dates in June then he should have had an idea of porting by Aug. He might start adopting it from next year. If so, it will be a bigger concern than ever.

[vizcard]

DD is updated every month and generally comes out a day or so before VB. Inventory is usually on a quarterly basis.

[tatikonda]

11/01/2013: Visa Bureau Reportedly Released Info that EB-2 India Would Retrogress to Either 2004 or 2005 in December Visa Bulletin

AILA has reported that in a conference in DC, Mr. Oppenheim disclosed that EB-2 for India would move backward to either 2004 or 2005 in December 2013 Visa Bulletin. Reportedly, in June 2014, EB-5 Regional Center Investor Visa Cap will reach because of the heavy demand of the investor immigrant visas by Chinese investors.

Source - http://www.immigration-law.com/

[Kanmani]

Question to Gurus,


At what stage does an application move out from EB3I to EB2I?
- After I-140 is approved ?
- After the interfiling request is filed ?
- After the visa is approved under EB2 ?



I cannot show direct evidence for your doubts, because the answers are spread out in various versions of interviews made with DoS. The following were the essence of those words. You can interpret from them.

1. Demand Data is obtained from the pending list in the Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System (IVAMS)

2. IVAMS allows only one Visa request per Alien Number pending in the system.

3. EB3 to EB2 is converted only when the EB2 PD is current.

4. EB2 visa is allotted only after the pending EB3 request is removed from the IVAMS.

Inventory is maintained by USCIS. Opinions may differ but mine is that Eb3 porters remain as EB3 in the inventory until their visa allocation .

[Jagan01]

I cannot show direct evidence for your doubts, because the answers are spread out in various versions of interviews made with DoS. The following were the essence of those words. You can interpret from them.

1. Demand Data is obtained from the pending list in the Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System (IVAMS)

2. IVAMS allows only one Visa request per Alien Number pending in the system.

3. EB3 to EB2 is converted only when the EB2 PD is current.

4. EB2 visa is allotted only after the pending EB3 request is removed from the IVAMS.

Inventory is maintained by USCIS. Opinions may differ but mine is that Eb3 porters remain as EB3 in the inventory until their visa allocation .

thanks Kanmani.

So according to your understanding, we would not be able to see the complete extent of the EB3-EB2 interfilers until they are actually granted the visa. Basically, even the Jan demand data might not account for interfilers that have been not been approved under EB2.

[Kanmani]

thanks Kanmani.

So according to your understanding, we would not be able to see the complete extent of the EB3-EB2 interfilers until they are actually granted the visa. Basically, even the Jan demand data might not account for interfilers that have been not been approved under EB2.

Jagan,

You have quoted the line in which I have commented (personal opinion) on the inventory maintained by USCIS,

DD is maintained by DoS. The information I have given on DD maintenance is not from my personal opinion or assumption, but it is true .

I am relatively new when compared to Q, Spec, Veni, Teddy, who have been trying for years to find a route to guesstimate the hidden demand of the EB3 porters. They could only approximate the number every year.

Yes, we can NEITHER see the porters demand in the DD when the PD is current ( Like today) NOR see the porters demand when the dates get retrogressed ( after December 1st).

NOTE: NOT all the I-485 applicants are counted in the Demand Data.

When the Priority Date is current, provided if the Visa numbers are not exhausted, any Visa request made with IVAMS straight away goes to the approval mode and because of this setup, the respective applicant cannot be a part of DD.

[justvisiting]

I'm not sure if this has been commented upon, the DOS Visa Office is estimating 150K visas for EB in FY-2014, likely because of 10K left over visas from FB in FY-2013.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

[qesehmk]

Justvisiting - you are the first to post this news. So far on the forum we have been following this - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf which shows 148K for EB for 2014. So this news you posted improves visa availability by 2K which is a good news for backlogged countries.

My rough guess at this point is that the final number will only increase given how FB FB2-A dates have moved. Most likely there is lots of FB visa spillover from FB to EB this year too.


I'm not sure if this has been commented upon, the DOS Visa Office is estimating 150K visas for EB in FY-2014, likely because of 10K left over visas from FB in FY-2013.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

[qesehmk]

Everybody on the forum - Happy Diwali and a happy new year to you and your families !!

[fun4dddd]

Everybody on the forum - Happy Diwali and a happy new year to you and your families !!

Happy Diwali to All
May this new year bring wisdom and peace to all of us....

[JosephM]

I received two CPO emails for the I485, one yesterday and another one today saying that card production ordered. First one said card production is ordered on November 2nd and today's email on the said that card production is ordered on Nov 3rd. This is on the same case. Is it normal?
RD 8/6/2013 PD 12/14/2007 TSC

[seattlet]

I have a question reg EB2 ROW. When most of H1 B visas are taken up by Indians, How is it that EB2 ROW occupies 35 K visas every year ? or atleast around 30 K
Do ROW folks have other avenues to apply for EB2 without having a work visa ? I know mexicans and canadians have T1, but not sure if they consume 35 K

[IJune05]

To everyone - Happy Diwali and I wish all of you a happy new year !

[suninphx]

I'm not sure if this has been commented upon, the DOS Visa Office is estimating 150K visas for EB in FY-2014, likely because of 10K left over visas from FB in FY-2013.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

justvisiting - many thanks!

[qesehmk]

I have a question reg EB2 ROW. When most of H1 B visas are taken up by Indians, How is it that EB2 ROW occupies 35 K visas every year ? or atleast around 30 K
Do ROW folks have other avenues to apply for EB2 without having a work visa ? I know mexicans and canadians have T1, but not sure if they consume 35 K
seattlet - That's a valid question. Perhaps it is a combination of three things: 1) A GC can be applied for regardless your current visa status. 2) Not all H1s are given to Indians. 3) There is an H1 quota based on US degrees. So ROW folks who do a bachelors or masters or a PHD may somehow end up getting an H1 through that quota. I believe the quota is 20K per year.


I received two CPO emails for the I485, one yesterday and another one today saying that card production ordered. First one said card production is ordered on November 2nd and today's email on the said that card production is ordered on Nov 3rd. This is on the same case. Is it normal?
RD 8/6/2013 PD 12/14/2007 TSC I wouldn't worry about it Joseph. Congratulations!

[druvraj]

I have a question reg EB2 ROW. When most of H1 B visas are taken up by Indians, How is it that EB2 ROW occupies 35 K visas every year ? or atleast around 30 K
Do ROW folks have other avenues to apply for EB2 without having a work visa ? I know mexicans and canadians have T1, but not sure if they consume 35 K

Lot of the EB2 row candidates are either direct hires and company transfers like L1. Also many use other category of visa and just like many I&C use lawyers to file for labor and concurrently for 140/485. Within months most are free to work without any problems.

[JosephM]

thank you qesehmk..

[justvisiting]

Lot of the EB2 row candidates are either direct hires and company transfers like L1. Also many use other category of visa and just like many I&C use lawyers to file for labor and concurrently for 140/485. Within months most are free to work without any problems.

USCIS approved 262.5K H1B petitions in FY 2012, 137K (52%) where for initial employment. Note that 2012 was the first FY in which initial employment increased, likely reflecting the reduced number of folks having to rebew H1Bs after their GCs were approved in FY2012. Of the initial employemnt H1Bs, 39K were for countries other than India and China. If you use the standard 2.2 factor converting H1Bs to Green Cards (because you have to account for spouses and children), that would yield 86K green cards for ROW alone. This is without considering L1 visas.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/H-1B/h1b-fy-12-characteristics.pdf

[swathi]

I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics updated (PDF file - updated October 1, 2013)
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_October_01-2013.pdf

[justvisiting]

I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics updated (PDF file - updated October 1, 2013)
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_October_01-2013.pdf

Wow... the PERM slowdown is evident. More EB1 than EB2s pending for 2013. Basically all those EB2 you are seeing after March 2013 are EB2-NIW. This may be the first clue we ever get at the size of NIW, and it looks to be about 300 per month of 3600 a year. (less than 10% of EB2-ROWs)

[Jagan01]

I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics updated (PDF file - updated October 1, 2013)
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_October_01-2013.pdf

This is bad. The pending inventory shows more applications pending as compared to DD. why do we have this inconsistency ?

[rotikapdaaurgc]

Roughly 32K applications for EB2I, when can we expect dates to move to 2010? Is spillover expected to be in 15K-16K range this year (FY 2014)?

[kd2008]

This is bad. The pending inventory shows more applications pending as compared to DD. why do we have this inconsistency ?

That is a minor detail. The most important conclusion is how low the inventory is for EB3ROW. That means EB3I can move like crazy and in turn reduce pressure on EB2I.

[suninphx]

The most important conclusion is how low the inventory is for EB3ROW. That means EB3I can move like crazy and in turn reduce pressure on EB2I.

kd- good point.

[Jagan01]

That is a minor detail. The most important conclusion is how low the inventory is for EB3ROW. That means EB3I can move like crazy and in turn reduce pressure on EB2I.

Kd2008,

How can that be minor. Below are the pending numbers before jan 2009 according to dd and inventory
DD : 9000
I485 inventory : 13500

In what world can that be minor ?

[bikenlalan]

Kd2008,

How can that be minor. Below are the pending numbers before jan 2009 according to dd and inventory
DD : 9000
I485 inventory : 13500

In what world can that be minor ?

The demand data was published as of 10/07 and the pending inventory is as of 10/01. "All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits." ...statement as per demand data.

So the difference in the numbers seems to be cases allocated visa numbers between 10/01 and 10/06.

[dorais]

The increase from 9000 to ~13500 is definitely not minor.

As of 10/07, 9000 cases in DD = Cases that have been pre-adjudicated
As of 10/01, 13500 cases in inventory = Includes both pre-adjudicated cases as well as new cases that are still being processed.

This difference of 4500 could be
1. New EB2I Applicants who missed the boat last time
2. Applicants who ported from EB3 (first time 485 filers)
3. Not sure if EB3 with exisiting 485 who sends interfile letter would be counted.

I am sure that I have not covered all the categories. Could we get some sense of porting numbers from this difference?


This is bad. The pending inventory shows more applications pending as compared to DD. why do we have this inconsistency ?

[Jagan01]

The demand data was published as of 10/07 and the pending inventory is as of 10/01. "All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits." ...statement as per demand data.

So the difference in the numbers seems to be cases allocated visa numbers between 10/01 and 10/06.

Are you trying to say that 4500 visas were allocated between Oct 01 and Oct 07 and then gradually the approvals kept coming for the month of Oct. That might be the case.

Assuming that is the case, we already know that 4500 visas from FY 2014 have been consumed. That would be a major bad news.

People were projecting 16k for EB2I for FY2014. With 4.5k gone, we are left with 11.5k.

Even from DD we know that 9k left before Jan 2009. Add the porting to it... Since CO mentioned 800 ported in Oct and (assuming another 700 potential in Nov).... So 1.5k for porting...

Demand = 9k + 1.5k = 10.5k pre Jan 2009.
Supply = 11.5k

With those numbers Dec 2008 looks reachable but not much hope for post Jan 2009...

[imdeng]

A good portion of H1Bs return home and don't get in the GC queue. Anecdotal evidence - I know of several South Korean and Chinese folks who decided to return after a few years of working. Look at what is happening to EB2C and EB3C - the density is very sparse.

USCIS approved 262.5K H1B petitions in FY 2012, 137K (52%) where for initial employment. Note that 2012 was the first FY in which initial employment increased, likely reflecting the reduced number of folks having to rebew H1Bs after their GCs were approved in FY2012. Of the initial employemnt H1Bs, 39K were for countries other than India and China. If you use the standard 2.2 factor converting H1Bs to Green Cards (because you have to account for spouses and children), that would yield 86K green cards for ROW alone. This is without considering L1 visas.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/H-1B/h1b-fy-12-characteristics.pdf

[imdeng]

I agree. No idea what is happening with EB3. DoS opened the floodgate after so many years and waiting and nobody seems to be biting. It seems to be long way out - but we might reach a situation when EB3 is C for everyone except EB3I and then EB3I will get the same kind of horizontal spillover that EB2I has been getting. EB2I is getting thinned by porting to EB2I anyway - so even a relatively low number will go a long way in moving EB3I.

This might also have some positive impact on EB2 by stopping EB3ROW upgrades and directing some traffice from EB2ROW to EB3ROW.


That is a minor detail. The most important conclusion is how low the inventory is for EB3ROW. That means EB3I can move like crazy and in turn reduce pressure on EB2I.

[Jagan01]

I'm not sure if this has been commented upon, the DOS Visa Office is estimating 150K visas for EB in FY-2014, likely because of 10K left over visas from FB in FY-2013.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

Thanks for posting this...

[Techsavvy1973]

Happy Diwali to everyone!!

We were afraid that we will drop into the december retrogression blackhole, but we got our cards on Saturday (Nov 2nd).

PD: Feb 6, 2008
RD: Jan 25, 2012
Approval Date: Oct 25, 2013
Case: EB2I-NSC

Opened SRs, Ombudsman case, case with Senator's office - Senator's office probably helped the most.

Thanks for the great work on this forum!! Best wishes to everyone.

[trackright]

All Guru's
http://immigration-law.com/ posted a message that EB-5 China has only 45 for FY14.

FY14 Annual Numerical Limits http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf does show only 45 available for china because of Chinese Student Protection Act. Does that mean 45 is the Quota and will be allocated more numbers(if there is no demand from other countries) in the last quarter Or 45 visas is the Limit and that's all they get in FY14?

[inspired_p]

I am in need of a prediction from you guys.

My priority date is End of Oct 2010 (consider 1st Nov 2010) EB2 - India .

When will I be able to apply for I-485/ EAD. I am not really concerned with the actual Green card been issued, or it getting retrogressed again- all i want is to get an EAD for my spouse as soon as possible.

What are your predictions?
Gurus ?

Regards

[qesehmk]

Practically it won't impact china because they will eventually get all the numbers they need as spillover from EB5ROW. But thanks for pointing this out!


All Guru's
http://immigration-law.com/ posted a message that EB-5 China has only 45 for FY14.

FY14 Annual Numerical Limits http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf does show only 45 available for china because of Chinese Student Protection Act. Does that mean 45 is the Quota and will be allocated more numbers(if there is no demand from other countries) in the last quarter Or 45 visas is the Limit and that's all they get in FY14?

[Jagan01]

I am in need of a prediction from you guys.

My priority date is End of Oct 2010 (consider 1st Nov 2010) EB2 - India .

When will I be able to apply for I-485/ EAD. I am not really concerned with the actual Green card been issued, or it getting retrogressed again- all i want is to get an EAD for my spouse as soon as possible.

What are your predictions?
Gurus ?

Regards

Inspired,

I can understand your situation and most of us have been in similar situation in the past.

Oct 2010 should be current in FY2016. So you should be able to apply for EAD in Aug - Sep 2016. I hate to be a bearer of bad news but FY2016 is the earliest according to me.

Of course if CIR comes through then its a different story.

[qriousjunta]

Inspired,

I can understand your situation and most of us have been in similar situation in the past.

Oct 2010 should be current in FY2016. So you should be able to apply for EAD in Aug - Sep 2016. I hate to be a bearer of bad news but FY2016 is the earliest according to me.

Of course if CIR comes through then its a different story.

I am on the same boat, i do need EAD too, but before that i want a job with my PD(June 2010). My guess is June 2015, we all should be eligible to apply for EAD.

[Jagan01]

I am on the same boat, i do need EAD too, but before that i want a job with my PD(June 2010). My guess is June 2015, we all should be eligible to apply for EAD.

It is good to be optimistic. However, if you are asking this question based on thinking about a job change, I would say you can go for the job change and apply new PERM and I-140 and retain date.

Some people do not change jobs thinking that they will get EAD in FY 2015. Please do not place your career on the assumption that you would get EAD in FY2015.

You need to check the demand and supply.

Currently there are 27000 applicants before Jan 2010 (check the latest i-485 inventory). You should count at least 5000 additional porters that will come in by the end of FY2014. So a total of 32000 before Jan 2010.
To be realistic, I would expect 16000 per year and hence FY2015 should cover Jan-Mar 2010.

The good news would be that they would have to build up inventory at some point of time. I would think that year would be FY2016. There is good chance of dates jumping in FY2016 by more than a year.

[inspired_p]

Thank you for your prediction. But to be optimistic, say there are 27000 applications till Jan 2010 and 32000 visas to be filed up till YR 2015 ; that does not stop them to move the dates ahead of time. Many times in the past the date movement have been done to get more applications even though there was enough inventory. YR 2014 is unlikely; but I was hoping against hope that PDs will move in YR 2015 when there is only 11000 applications waiting (27K-16K of YR 2014) and porting being unknown as always.

Why would the PDs not move at the end of the year 2015 (June - Sept 2015) as they have done historically at end of every year - and retrogress again when they have again have around 30K applications to work on.

I am not trying to answer my own question - but your reply made me start thinking if the PDs actually move in the linear fashion that you mentioned (i.e. number applications on file vs number of visas available).

--Regards






It is good to be optimistic. However, if you are asking this question based on thinking about a job change, I would say you can go for the job change and apply new PERM and I-140 and retain date.

Some people do not change jobs thinking that they will get EAD in FY 2015. Please do not place your career on the assumption that you would get EAD in FY2015.

You need to check the demand and supply.

Currently there are 27000 applicants before Jan 2010 (check the latest i-485 inventory). You should count at least 5000 additional porters that will come in by the end of FY2014. So a total of 32000 before Jan 2010.
To be realistic, I would expect 16000 per year and hence FY2015 should cover Jan-Mar 2010.

The good news would be that they would have to build up inventory at some point of time. I would think that year would be FY2016. There is good chance of dates jumping in FY2016 by more than a year.

[girish989]

Thank you for your prediction. But to be optimistic, say there are 27000 applications till Jan 2010 and 32000 visas to be filed up till YR 2015 ; that does not stop them to move the dates ahead of time. Many times in the past the date movement have been done to get more applications even though there was enough inventory. YR 2014 is unlikely; but I was hoping against hope that PDs will move in YR 2015 when there is only 11000 applications waiting (27K-16K of YR 2014) and porting being unknown as always.

Why would the PDs not move at the end of the year 2015 (June - Sept 2015) as they have done historically at end of every year - and retrogress again when they have again have around 30K applications to work on.

I am not trying to answer my own question - but your reply made me start thinking if the PDs actually move in the linear fashion that you mentioned (i.e. number applications on file vs number of visas available).

--Regards


God bless these : boom and bust cycles ... all we need is current boom cycle to end and all 2010 folks would be in ....

[Jagan01]

Thank you for your prediction. But to be optimistic, say there are 27000 applications till Jan 2010 and 32000 visas to be filed up till YR 2015 ; that does not stop them to move the dates ahead of time. Many times in the past the date movement have been done to get more applications even though there was enough inventory. YR 2014 is unlikely; but I was hoping against hope that PDs will move in YR 2015 when there is only 11000 applications waiting (27K-16K of YR 2014) and porting being unknown as always.

Why would the PDs not move at the end of the year 2015 (June - Sept 2015) as they have done historically at end of every year - and retrogress again when they have again have around 30K applications to work on.

I am not trying to answer my own question - but your reply made me start thinking if the PDs actually move in the linear fashion that you mentioned (i.e. number applications on file vs number of visas available).

--Regards

I never said they move in a linear fashion. If you read my post, I did say that FY2016 will be the year when they will try to build up the inventory. The only difference between what you say and what I say is the selection of the year when they will build inventory.

You are assuming 0 porting from EB3 to EB2 in the end of FY 2014. Believe me that is not true. Lets assume that dates will move to Mar 2009 by end of FY 2014. There will be several porters from June 2008 - Mar 2009 that will tag along into the inventory. Plus there will be porters from Jan 2005 - June 2008 (very low number but not zero). This total porting number will at least be 5000.

USCIS does buikd inventory only when it thinks that the total annual supply wont be met by total annual demand. 30k is not written anywhere.

We have only calculated upto Jan 2010. USCIS has another 5k pending already in 2010.

[inspired_p]

Got it !
I hope they move the dates as earlier as possible.. ideally(according to me) they should take in all the I-485 applications and issue EADs to all I-140s approved applications, and take their own sweet time approving on a FIFO based on PDs(this will make consular processing more attractive to many as well). Everyone would be happy . Not sure why that is not allowed and what stops them doing that ..
This Wait is ridiculous.
-I read it somewhere that the visa bulletien is released by the DOS and not the USCIS- so many times DOS moves the dates to spite the USCIS for its lack of transparency and inefficiency.. not sure how true is that .. but it is all good for us.



I never said they move in a linear fashion. If you read my post, I did say that FY2016 will be the year when they will try to build up the inventory. The only difference between what you say and what I say is the selection of the year when they will build inventory.

You are assuming 0 porting from EB3 to EB2 in the end of FY 2014. Believe me that is not true. Lets assume that dates will move to Mar 2009 by end of FY 2014. There will be several porters from June 2008 - Mar 2009 that will tag along into the inventory. Plus there will be porters from Jan 2005 - June 2008 (very low number but not zero). This total porting number will at least be 5000.

USCIS does buikd inventory only when it thinks that the total annual supply wont be met by total annual demand. 30k is not written anywhere.

We have only calculated upto Jan 2010. USCIS has another 5k pending already in 2010.

[Jagan01]

Got it !
I hope they move the dates as earlier as possible.. ideally(according to me) they should take in all the I-485 applications and issue EADs to all I-140s approved applications, and take their own sweet time approving on a FIFO based on PDs(this will make consular processing more attractive to many as well). Everyone would be happy . Not sure why that is not allowed and what stops them doing that ..
This Wait is ridiculous.
-I read it somewhere that the visa bulletien is released by the DOS and not the USCIS- so many times DOS moves the dates to spite the USCIS for its lack of transparency and inefficiency.. not sure how true is that .. but it is all good for us.

There is a reason that cannot be done.

DOS sets the date. Lets say hypothetically they make dates current as per your suggestion and let everyone get the EAD.

USCIS would then have a candidate set of applications all the way until 2013 that are eligible to get GC. USCIS issues GC to all applicants that are current. Hence FIFO wont be followed. It might be a bigger misery for many (2007/2008) who will have to complete against everyone to get their GC.

[fun4dddd]

There is a reason that cannot be done.

DOS sets the date. Lets say hypothetically they make dates current as per your suggestion and let everyone get the EAD.

USCIS would then have a candidate set of applications all the way until 2013 that are eligible to get GC. USCIS issues GC to all applicants that are current. Hence FIFO wont be followed. It might be a bigger misery for many (2007/2008) who will have to complete against everyone to get their GC.



Nov 13 dd is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[isantem]

Nov 13 dd is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Yes, for the last 30 days :)

[eb2china]

Any thoughts on EB2 C.How this will be moving forward . Any changes of building inventory .

My PD is June 2010.

[Jagan01]

Any thoughts on EB2 C.How this will be moving forward . Any changes of building inventory .

My PD is June 2010.

Can you convert to EB3?

[geevikram]

Any thoughts on EB2 C.How this will be moving forward . Any changes of building inventory .

My PD is June 2010.
Seriously, you are better off porting down to EB3.

[Jagan01]

Is there anyone on this forum that is current, and not a first time filer (filers in Aug-Sep 2013), and is still pending ?

It looks like approvals coming only for first time filers. Makes me think that the original EB2 candidates have all gotten their GC

[tomhagen]

I am not first time filer and my date is not even current :) .. However I am active user in trackitt and other forums. Your observation is correct. From last 15 days I am observing most of the approvals for first time filers and very few porting cases. Still a small percentage from 2006, 2007 EB2 waiting for GC but I doubt the cleanliness of the paper work in those cases.

[gclabor07]

Yes, that's my observation too. I'm a November 2011 filer with a July 2007 PD. Mine was approved in August. My wife got BC RFE. It is pending in RFE Response Review since 8/28. I opened up a SR on 10/28 after 60 days. But, no movement so far. Don't know if she will make it this time.


Is there anyone on this forum that is current, and not a first time filer (filers in Aug-Sep 2013), and is still pending ?

It looks like approvals coming only for first time filers. Makes me think that the original EB2 candidates have all gotten their GC

[Maksimus]

Is there anyone on this forum that is current, and not a first time filer (filers in Aug-Sep 2013), and is still pending ?

It looks like approvals coming only for first time filers. Makes me think that the original EB2 candidates have all gotten their GC

I'm right here waiting! :-( And I know a few fellow Dec 2011 and Jan 2012 filers who are still waiting...

[geevikram]

I'm right here waiting! :-( And I know a few fellow Dec 2011 and Jan 2012 filers who are still waiting...

Waiting 07/03/2008...

[dorais]

Just to clarify, your priority date of July/03/2008 is not current yet. Are there any other direct EB2-I, who are current now and have filed in 2011/2012 still waiting?


Waiting 07/03/2008...

[satwgl]

my PD is Oct 2008 and applied I485 in Jan 2012.

[qesehmk]

Header updated.

[Jagan01]

Header updated.

Thanks for the update Q.

[imdeng]

I don't there is any chance of building inventory anytime soon since EB2C is not likely to receive any spillover as EB2C is running ahead of EB2I. Without spillover, EB2C will move only with the regular quota - so a steady forward movement of about a month in each VB should be expected but no major jumps. June 2010 might take quite some time to reach.


Any thoughts on EB2 C.How this will be moving forward . Any changes of building inventory .

My PD is June 2010.

[Jagan01]

Looks like most of the original filers are now approved. I do not see even a single original filer getting approved this week on trackitt. There might be very very very few left.

Also, only one approval for interfiler this week on trackitt. That also indicates that most of the interfilers are also done and have their approvals. Again very few might be left.

Here is what I see in trackitt for Oct and Nov approvals.

Original filer --> 250
First time filers --> 165
Interfilers --> 110
Total --> 425

I was trying to figure out the difference in DD and I-485 inventory and talked to Matt on trackitt. Below is what I learned.
It is important to notice the difference between the I-485 inventory (Oct 01) and DD (Oct 07). I believe here is what has happened.

1. DOS allotted visas to the remaining "original applicants" on Oct 01, 2013 from FY 2014 quota. These are shown as pending as per the Oct 01 I-485 inventory report. I am suspecting this number to be 2000.
2. USCIS started accepting the first time filers and they started showing up as pending in the I-485 inventory. I am suspecting this number to be 3000.

The above two points show the difference in the DD and I-485 inventory. 5000 is approximately the number that I-485 inventory report is higher by compared to the DD.

Also these numbers translate perfectly to trackitt when we consider that trackitt has a conversion ratio of 13% for approvals and 16.25% for applications filed. Considering these conversion ratios:

Original filer --> 250 (2000)
First time filers --> 165 (1269)
Interfilers --> 110 (864)
Total --> 425 (3269)

If the above numbers are correct then we should see the pending applications before Jan 2009 go up by (3000 - 1269) = 2700. Also 9000 was an approximation and should have actually been 8700 as per July inventory.
If we see that december demand data shows 8700+2700 = 11400 pending applications before Jan 2009 then it should be pretty much in line with this theory.

Can Gurus please comment about trackitt conversion factors. Missing Spec here. It is difficult to predict the conversion factors.

[primus]

I woke up this morning with this e-mail alert and saw USCIS in sender and got excited. But I forgot that I am one of those un-lucky guys who have always been picked out of million candidate to have some issue. Yes, I received an RFE e-mail from TSC.

"On November 8, 2013, we mailed a notice requesting initial evidence in this case. Please follow the instructions on the notice to submit the evidence requested. Meanwhile, processing of this case is on hold until we either receive the evidence or the opportunity to submit it expires. Once you submit the evidence requested and a decision is made, you will be notified by mail. If you move while this case is pending, please use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283."

I don't know when my journey will end. My priority date is Sep 2006 with direct EB2. First time filer on Aug 1st '13. Even my EAD was approved on 92nd (Oct 1st) day. Is there anyway to know what that RFE has been issued for me (what do i need to provide?), because I don't want to wait one week to get postal mail and then start to work upon it.

Question1: So I should now safely assume that even if I reply back to my RFE in 2 days within getting the RFE, my case will now be pushed back and cannot be considered within this month...right? Usually when/how USCIS re-start processing RFE cases?

Question2: Does my RFE have any affect on my wife and daughter's I-485 processing (I am primary)? Will their processing will be put on hold?


I am so frustrated now with humiliating life at work every day and being sucked, because they know I cannot leave them unless I get my looooong pending GC.

I would appreciate if gurus or anyone who has experienced RFE case and can reply to my above question. Thank you in advance.

[qesehmk]

If it is not too personal Primus - what is the RFE about?

As per your question #1 - I think if you respond their RFE resolution needs to happen first before they can adjudicate the case and allocate visa.
As per #2 - Technically I am not aware of any legal requirement that primary applicant be approved prior to beneficiaries being approved. However, given that beneficiaries are beneficiaries off of primary, I think USCIS will not approve their cases prior to yours.


I woke up this morning with this e-mail alert and saw USCIS in sender and got excited. But I forgot that I am one of those un-lucky guys who have always been picked out of million candidate to have some issue. Yes, I received an RFE e-mail from TSC.

"On November 8, 2013, we mailed a notice requesting initial evidence in this case. Please follow the instructions on the notice to submit the evidence requested. Meanwhile, processing of this case is on hold until we either receive the evidence or the opportunity to submit it expires. Once you submit the evidence requested and a decision is made, you will be notified by mail. If you move while this case is pending, please use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283."

I don't know when my journey will end. My priority date is Sep 2006 with direct EB2. First time filer on Aug 1st '13. Even my EAD was approved on 92nd (Oct 1st) day. Is there anyway to know what that RFE has been issued for me (what do i need to provide?), because I don't want to wait one week to get postal mail and then start to work upon it.

Question1: So I should now safely assume that even if I reply back to my RFE in 2 days within getting the RFE, my case will now be pushed back and cannot be considered within this month...right? Usually when/how USCIS re-start processing RFE cases?

Question2: Does my RFE have any affect on my wife and daughter's I-485 processing (I am primary)? Will their processing will be put on hold?


I am so frustrated now with humiliating life at work every day and being sucked, because they know I cannot leave them unless I get my looooong pending GC.

I would appreciate if gurus or anyone who has experienced RFE case and can reply to my above question. Thank you in advance.

[tomhagen]

I hear you but don't get discouraged. There are several other people to share your pain. For example guys who doesn't have any client letters are getting 3 years extension and the ones who has client letters is getting extension for only that period even though their 140 is approved. And you know the scenario now. If you apply for extension in regular processing you will never hear (before 6 months with VSC). So one has to shell out $ 1225 for premium processing.

But you should be happy for one thing. You are first time filer and your file is being actively looked at. There are couple of unlucky folks who got struck this retrogression mess.

Question1: So I should now safely assume that even if I reply back to my RFE in 2 days within getting the RFE, my case will now be pushed back and cannot be considered within this month...right? Usually when/how USCIS re-start processing RFE cases?

Tom : First suggestion. Don't be in hurry. When you get an RFE you will have 87 days to respond back. I am NOT saying that wait till 85 days and respond but responding back in 2 days might put you on the spot again. Couple of things you need to look for.

1. Birth Certificate : Ask yourself following questions.
Is every thing fine with birth certificate ?
When was birth registered ? Is it late like an year after you were born ?
If you don't have the BC, take a look at the affidavits one more time.

2. Medicals : You need the following medicals
Initial Physical 18-39 - Code : 99385
Tine/PPD - Code: 86580
Syphilis Serology - Code:86592
ICD-9 - V70.0
Vaccination Varivax (chicken pox) - Code : 90716
Immunization Admn - Code : 90472

For your daughter
Initial Physical 5-11 - Code : 99383
Tine/PPD - Code: 86580 (same as above)
ICD-9 - V20.2

Also some times they will ask for simple things like flu vaccination.

Also some times doctors miss one or two tests and they will ask for it.

Considering approvals are slowed down considerably and USCIS will not have much on 485 front your RFE response should be taken up immediately. However it is not in any body's control except the IO who is looking in to your case.

3. EVL - Since your priority date is 2006, USCIS wants to make sure that your future position is still valid and open.

These are some trivial things. Don't get discouraged and you will be alright.

Question2: Does my RFE have any affect on my wife and daughter's I-485 processing (I am primary)? Will their processing will be put on hold?

Tom : Nope. It will not have any impact.

[primus]

I hear you but don't get discouraged. There are several other people to share your pain. For example guys who doesn't have any client letters are getting 3 years extension and the ones who has client letters is getting extension for only that period even though their 140 is approved. And you know the scenario now. If you apply for extension in regular processing you will never hear (before 6 months with VSC). So one has to shell out $ 1225 for premium processing.

But you should be happy for one thing. You are first time filer and your file is being actively looked at. There are couple of unlucky folks who got struck this retrogression mess.

Question1: So I should now safely assume that even if I reply back to my RFE in 2 days within getting the RFE, my case will now be pushed back and cannot be considered within this month...right? Usually when/how USCIS re-start processing RFE cases?

Tom : First suggestion. Don't be in hurry. When you get an RFE you will have 87 days to respond back. I am NOT saying that wait till 85 days and respond but responding back in 2 days might put you on the spot again. Couple of things you need to look for.

1. Birth Certificate : Ask yourself following questions.
Is every thing fine with birth certificate ?
When was birth registered ? Is it late like an year after you were born ?
If you don't have the BC, take a look at the affidavits one more time.

2. Medicals : You need the following medicals
Initial Physical 18-39 - Code : 99385
Tine/PPD - Code: 86580
Syphilis Serology - Code:86592
ICD-9 - V70.0
Vaccination Varivax (chicken pox) - Code : 90716
Immunization Admn - Code : 90472

For your daughter
Initial Physical 5-11 - Code : 99383
Tine/PPD - Code: 86580 (same as above)
ICD-9 - V20.2

Also some times they will ask for simple things like flu vaccination.

Also some times doctors miss one or two tests and they will ask for it.

Considering approvals are slowed down considerably and USCIS will not have much on 485 front your RFE response should be taken up immediately. However it is not in any body's control except the IO who is looking in to your case.

3. EVL - Since your priority date is 2006, USCIS wants to make sure that your future position is still valid and open.

These are some trivial things. Don't get discouraged and you will be alright.

Question2: Does my RFE have any affect on my wife and daughter's I-485 processing (I am primary)? Will their processing will be put on hold?

Tom : Nope. It will not have any impact.


Thank you tomhagen for a detailed reply. Very much appreciated. Though few things:

In first time filing, I have attached EVL and that is from my new employer for whom I have been working since 2011. And they have sponsored my GC. But I am retaining my previous employer priority date i.e Sept 2006. And I have always worked as full time employee (never done contracting).

I just called up USCIS and talked to L1 officer, he said since I am primary so my wife and daughter's application is based upon my application so they will not be processed, until mine get cleared. In above comment, qesehmk also said the same thing. My medical and DOB certificates all are fine, not sure what this REF is for. Someone said, TSC being notorious sometime, in order to claim that they process application in 4 months, so near the end of 4 months, they send RFE intentionally. Transparency is laking as how they work. In fact they should process application based on PD, but there are several cases where that does not seem true.

[tomhagen]

Well.. sorry for not being clear for second question answer. When i said they will not have any impact means your RFE shouldn't impact them. They will not get RFE based on yours.

It is quite common that even if you provide the documents USCIS will ask some times. Reason being is it is misplaced in the process. If you have time and chance read the Adjudication officer's field manual. It clearly mentioned the process they follow when they get the document packet.

So just wait for to receive the physical RFE copy. Don't worry every thing will be alright :)

[primus]

Well.. sorry for not being clear for second question answer. When i said they will not have any impact means your RFE shouldn't impact them. They will not get RFE based on yours.

It is quite common that even if you provide the documents USCIS will ask some times. Reason being is it is misplaced in the process. If you have time and chance read the Adjudication officer's field manual. It clearly mentioned the process they follow when they get the document packet.

So just wait for to receive the physical RFE copy. Don't worry every thing will be alright :)

Captain Phillips' Muse said 'Hey Irish-everything gonna be ok!' :)

[rajamp]

Dec '13 bulletin released. Party over for the next 6 months :(

India EB2 moved back to 15NOV04
Eb3 China is almost 3-year more advanced than Eb2 China.

EB2 China 08NOV08
EB3 China 01OCT11

EB2 India 15NOV04
EB3 India 01SEP03

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6211.html

[qesehmk]

Thanks Rajamp.

The VB was almost uneventful and no surprise whatsoever. It is a good thing and Visa Office must be commended for that.

The retrogression only emphasizes that EB3s are converting in drove and so the pressure on EB2 will continue to remain so. However as usual the year end will come with unused visas and dates will move forward. So EB2Is don't need to be overly concerned.

EB3I dates didnt retrogress. The 485 inventory shows why. EB3C dates are really ironic. It only shows how irrelevant this quota system has become where relativly high skilled workers are backlogged and relatively low skilled categories are moving forward.

As per EB-I folks. .... now just wait and watch through the rest of the year. As NVC and prior year data comes in - there will be some better insights.


Dec '13 bulletin released. Party over for the next 6 months :(

India EB2 moved back to 15NOV04
Eb3 China is almost 3-year more advanced than Eb2 China.

EB2 China 08NOV08
EB3 China 01OCT11

EB2 India 15NOV04
EB3 India 01SEP03

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6211.html

[imdeng]

I agree - it is along the expected lines - except for the jump in EB3-ROW/M/C. The last demand data said:


Information received from USCIS indicates that the amount of I-485 adjustment of status applications already filed in the Employment Third preference (on which USCIS has not yet finalized action) for countries other than India and the Philippines exceed the numbers currently available under the INA guidelines. These filings are the result of the cut-off dates for those countries having been advanced by over three years since April. Such demand must be considered in the determination of the monthly cut-off dates to prevent any unnecessary fluctuation in those dates.

After saying that they have enough for the year for EB3-ROW/M/C, they go ahead and push PD by another year! Into 2011!!

This tells me that the post 07/07 demand density in EB3-ROW/M/C is very low - possibly because folks have ported to EB2 or could not survive the great recession without EAD/AP. I personally think its mostly the first. If that is so then it is actually good news since that would mean that the volume of folks looking to port from EB3-ROW/M/C in the current year is going to drop significantly. This means that more EB2-ROW/M visas will be available for horizontal spillover into EB2-I.

I am flabbergasted that a movement of almost five years (!!) is not sufficient for EB3-ROW/M/C to build enough inventory. Last Dec EB3-ROW was at 22DEC06 - now its 01OCT11. Could it really be that in a few years we reach the situation of EB3-ROW as C and horizontal spillovers into EB3-I. It would certainly be a very welcome development.


Thanks Rajamp.

The VB was almost uneventful and no surprise whatsoever. It is a good thing and Visa Office must be commended for that.

The retrogression only emphasizes that EB3s are converting in drove and so the pressure on EB2 will continue to remain so. However as usual the year end will come with unused visas and dates will move forward. So EB2Is don't need to be overly concerned.

EB3I dates didnt retrogress. The 485 inventory shows why. EB3C dates are really ironic. It only shows how irrelevant this quota system has become where relativly high skilled workers are backlogged and relatively low skilled categories are moving forward.

As per EB-I folks. .... now just wait and watch through the rest of the year. As NVC and prior year data comes in - there will be some better insights.

[qesehmk]

Very certainly EB3ROW has its own share of portings into EB2ROW.

However that alone isn't enough to justify such a movement. I think there is a larger story behind it and most likely it is going to be extra FB numbers that were given to people in EB3ROW whose countries were underutilizing 7% limit across FB and EB.

We will be able to verify this when the DHS report for 2013 comes out.


I am flabbergasted that a movement of almost five years (!!) is not sufficient for EB3-ROW/M/C to build enough inventory.

[imdeng]

Extra FB numbers are distributed across all categories - so its not that EB3 got any more FB numbers than EB2 got. So FB numbers can't be too large a part of this story. Maybe they just want to build this massive inventory that will last for a few years.

I just think that all the portings have left EB3 bare. Consider the fact that EB3-I lost ~15K folks from its Demand Data in one year. I think we are just now seeing how much porting has already happened over the years.


Very certainly EB3ROW has its own share of portings into EB2ROW.

However that alone isn't enough to justify such a movement. I think there is a larger story behind it and most likely it is going to be extra FB numbers that were given to people in EB3ROW whose countries were underutilizing 7% limit across FB and EB.

We will be able to verify this when the DHS report for 2013 comes out.

[qesehmk]

That would be true for FB spillover from one year to next. But I was not talking about that.

I am wondering if they took FB numbers and used within EB under 7% rule. We will know pretty soon !


Extra FB numbers are distributed across all categories - so its not that EB3 got any more FB numbers than EB2 got. So FB numbers can't be too large a part of this story. Maybe they just want to build this massive inventory that will last for a few years.

I just think that all the portings have left EB3 bare. Consider the fact that EB3-I lost ~15K folks from its Demand Data in one year. I think we are just now seeing how much porting has already happened over the years.

[anasha1721]

Hi qesehmk,
I am a frequent visitor to this forum thanks to detailed analysis you and your colleagues provide. Most of the predictions mentioned here have been spot on. Usually I am not too affected by visa bulletin retrogression as I have a steady job and am happy with it. But the retrogression in this visa bulletin has left me worried and has led me to think about my career and future. I haven't had a promotion in a long time and was wondering if not having a GC is got something to do with it. I am thinking of looking for other opportunities but I am wondering if there is any chance that priority dates might movbe to Dec 2008 or beyond in July 2014 bulletin.
I am asking me this because there might be less spill over in FY'14 and come july 2014 dates might not advance much. I would like to know what you think.
Thanks

[imdeng]

It almost never makes sense to delay what you need to do for your career because of what is happening in the GC process. You have EAD, you can file AC21 for a new job - so why wait. I have personally known a person who was denied a bonus and promotion because the company thought that the person is "not a flight risk" since the person does not have a GC. It is all too common.

BTW - I do think that PD for EB2-I will cross Dec 2008 by the end of this FY (i.e by Oct 2014).


Hi qesehmk,
I am a frequent visitor to this forum and I like the detailed analysis and forecast provided by you and your colleagues. Usually I am not affected by visa bulletin retrogression as I have a steady job and love what I am doing. But this retrogression in this visa bulletin has left me worried about my career and future. I haven't had a promotion in quite a while and I think not having a GC is one of the reasons. I have started looking at other opportunities and planning to switch using my EAD. Having said that do you think there are chances the dates might move to Dec 2008 and beyond in july 2014. Would appreciate your response.

[anasha1721]

Thanks for your response imdeng.


It almost never makes sense to delay what you need to do for your career because of what is happening in the GC process. You have EAD, you can file AC21 for a new job - so why wait. I have personally known a person who was denied a bonus and promotion because the company thought that the person is "not a flight risk" since the person does not have a GC. It is all too common.

BTW - I do think that PD for EB2-I will cross Dec 2008 by the end of this FY (i.e by Oct 2014).

[amulchandra]

A big thank you to all the gurus who share all the analysis and insights about PD movements.
Can one of you predict the net reduction in the known EB3 I pending inventory before the end of FY2014 which includes portings, SO and stipulated visa allocation to EB3 I.
Last year it was around 14000 visas. Can we expect the same or more in 2014?

Thank you very much in advance

Amul

[anasha1721]

I am one such person. I left with my EAD. My manager was shocked and offered me a 30% raise on the spot. I declined politely and left on good terms. The opportunities I have had since I left are amazing and I can see my career has been fast tracked - I joined a small and dynamic firm at a substantially higher pay, greater responsibility and great career advancement options. I always had a super steady job but I saw that the raises were progressively reducing, my responsibilities were not expanding, and my title was going through meaningless "senior", "senior II" and "senior III" progressions. It was not bad, but that party wouldn't last forever. Once you hit your 40s, you are on the chopping block unless you have ascended high enough to be a decision maker. Always remember that.

I have always viewed the EAD as a GC. Of course it has to have that "same or similar" thing with it. Eventually, I want to change my career completely by doing something new, but that time is not now, and I am thankful for what the EAD did to me (and to my spouse too).

I would go as far as and say this: Even if you jeopardize your GC, bite the bullet and do the right thing. Take the job with the best long term prospects. Your PD is locked. You can always start the whole thing again. If you waste your precious productive years waiting for the GC in your company, you might find it is too late to change.

Good luck,

I think this makes sense. Thanks for posting.

[imdeng]

Last year seems to be a special case - perhaps some of EB3-ROW numbers moved to EB3-I since there weren't enough documantarily qualified candidates by the end of FY to finish the quota. That should not happen any more with EB3-ROW in 2011 and perhaps further movements in coming months. So EB3-I should go back to its steady average of the inventory declining by about 6K per year.


A big thank you to all the gurus who share all the analysis and insights about PD movements.
Can one of you predict the net reduction in the known EB3 I pending inventory before the end of FY2014 which includes portings, SO and stipulated visa allocation to EB3 I.
Last year it was around 14000 visas. Can we expect the same or more in 2014?

Thank you very much in advance

Amul

[imdeng]

Entirely agree SportsFan. Also - did your post count get reset or something - I see 59 there and it should be in several hundreds - I have been reading your posts for quite some time now. Or are there multiple SportsFans around??


I am one such person. I left with my EAD. My manager was shocked and offered me a 30% raise on the spot. I declined politely and left on good terms. The opportunities I have had since I left are amazing and I can see my career has been fast tracked - I joined a small and dynamic firm at a substantially higher pay, greater responsibility and great career advancement options. I always had a super steady job but I saw that the raises were progressively reducing, my responsibilities were not expanding, and my title was going through meaningless "senior", "senior II" and "senior III" progressions. It was not bad, but that party wouldn't last forever. Once you hit your 40s, you are on the chopping block unless you have ascended high enough to be a decision maker. Always remember that.

I have always viewed the EAD as a GC. Of course it has to have that "same or similar" thing with it. Eventually, I want to change my career completely by doing something new, but that time is not now, and I am thankful for what the EAD did to me (and to my spouse too).

I would go as far as and say this: Even if you jeopardize your GC, bite the bullet and do the right thing. Take the job with the best long term prospects. Your PD is locked. You can always start the whole thing again. If you waste your precious productive years waiting for the GC in your company, you might find it is too late to change.

Good luck,

[vizcard]

I am one such person. I left with my EAD. My manager was shocked and offered me a 30% raise on the spot. I declined politely and left on good terms. The opportunities I have had since I left are amazing and I can see my career has been fast tracked - I joined a small and dynamic firm at a substantially higher pay, greater responsibility and great career advancement options. I always had a super steady job but I saw that the raises were progressively reducing, my responsibilities were not expanding, and my title was going through meaningless "senior", "senior II" and "senior III" progressions. It was not bad, but that party wouldn't last forever. Once you hit your 40s, you are on the chopping block unless you have ascended high enough to be a decision maker. Always remember that.

I have always viewed the EAD as a GC. Of course it has to have that "same or similar" thing with it. Eventually, I want to change my career completely by doing something new, but that time is not now, and I am thankful for what the EAD did to me (and to my spouse too).

I would go as far as and say this: Even if you jeopardize your GC, bite the bullet and do the right thing. Take the job with the best long term prospects. Your PD is locked. You can always start the whole thing again. If you waste your precious productive years waiting for the GC in your company, you might find it is too late to change.

Good luck,

The irony is that the "same or similar" thing is what's keeping me in my current job. I work in management consulting and the only reason for me to change jobs would be to get something that doesn't need me to travel so much. But the "same or similar" clause makes it tricky. Can't wait for summer 2014.

[qesehmk]

That's quite painful. Especially so if one has kids.
The irony is that the "same or similar" thing is what's keeping me in my current job. I work in management consulting and the only reason for me to change jobs would be to get something that doesn't need me to travel so much. But the "same or similar" clause makes it tricky. Can't wait for summer 2014.

[qriousjunta]

I agree, consulting can get brutal sometimes. Well, all of this will end by August 2014 for you.

I wonder if AC21 was designed for situations like ours (retrogression for years). It's just a vague law. We play on the same side of it, although I wonder if someone had a slightly different experience "stretching the same or similar boundary a tad too much" and getting away with it.

Guys, guys wait i hear my echo :) H1B waiting for GC , could not move job, sick with the current long time job , hard to make decisions because have to consider kids.
All makes life harder, but personally thinking deeper in detail, do not know if giving up and leaving the country would buy any peace. The green on the other side is mostly a mirage. On the whole this waiting for PD is a vanavasam.

[shrithrj]

Hi, My PD is Oct 2007 with EB3 approved I-140., but I am waiting for Eb2 PERM approval so i can port it. When Can I expect that dates will be back to Oct 2007 again? My h1 (8th year) is expiring in Oct 2014. Orginally i thought these dates will not change ,so once my Eb2 Perm is approved i can go for I-140 , EAD, 485 bla bla... but now i am concerned if i have to file another h1 extension ? Any idea what would the best ?

[Jagan01]

Hi, My PD is Oct 2007 with EB3 approved I-140., but I am waiting for Eb2 PERM approval so i can port it. When Can I expect that dates will be back to Oct 2007 again? My h1 (8th year) is expiring in Oct 2014. Orginally i thought these dates will not change ,so once my Eb2 Perm is approved i can go for I-140 , EAD, 485 bla bla... but now i am concerned if i have to file another h1 extension ? Any idea what would the best ?

You should be current kin July 2014.

[shrithrj]

Thanks for responding. If it is current, should i Still go for H1 Extension or file for EAD? As my H1 expires in Oct 2014, Can i Wait till Sep and file H1?

[vizcard]

Thanks for responding. If it is current, should i Still go for H1 Extension or file for EAD? As my H1 expires in Oct 2014, Can i Wait till Sep and file H1?

You don't NEED to go for an extension. You can always switch to the EAD assuming you keep it valid constantly. I have both H1 and EAD because my company pays for it. So at that point its a financial decision. As for timing, I think if you get a receipt notice you are ok. So basically you would need to file early in Sept rather than later.

[qesehmk]

It's always a good idea to be on H1 even while 485 is pending. Because in case 485 is denied then without H1 you are out of status immediately.
Thanks for responding. If it is current, should i Still go for H1 Extension or file for EAD? As my H1 expires in Oct 2014, Can i Wait till Sep and file H1?

[tomhagen]

It is always suggestible to keep H1 valid till your 485 is approved. For some reason if your 485 ended up in trouble you will be immediately out of status. So insist your employer for H1 extn. He/She may or may not agree because it is more money for them. However for safety reason you should always get your H1 extension.

Coming to filing the extension, once you get the receipt number you can be country waiting for the decision for 254 days. Hence choose a date/month which will keep you in the safe boundary. If you feel sept is better for it, you can do it in sept. However just make sure you get the receipt number before your current H1 is expired.

[seattlet]

Can any one of our gurus explain where the visa numbers for all EB2 I approvals in Nov came from. Is there a way to logically explain it ?
I got my green card yesterday but I wasnt expecting it at all since usually when DOS retrogresses severely, the visa numbers become internally unavailable within days ?

[shrithrj]

I guess they are still processing for Nov 2008 applications. new dates are only effective from Dec.

[tomhagen]

If you look at the demand, inventory numbers, and other factors this is what we can conclude. As every one knows USCIS FY is Oct - Sept. So by end of September visa numbers will get reset. When you look at 2013 scenario it had put enormous pressure on USCIS and DOS not to waste the visa numbers. So considering there will be possible FB to EB spill over and other factors what they did is they consumed yearly quota (2800) in Oct, Nov itself. That is from where these approvals are coming. It is almost imminent that we will have some spill over from FB and other categories in summer. That is when they are going to move the dates forward based on the quantity available at that time. Is it a correct thing to do ? may not be. But USCIS is doing trail and error every year to pick best way to handle :)

[vizcard]

I can't wait for the next demand data!

[primus]

I got my birth certificate translation done from www.rev.com and I got RFE for that; officer could not find my translated birth certificate. That is lame.

Anyway, I am planning to resend same translation copy, (its a pdf that I printed out). Is it required to send original translation? because rev.com send translation copy with their seal as pdf, but never hard copy.

Is there any other way, anyone can suggest to get translation done in 24 hours? I heard someone said, I can get translation done and get my friend attestation, and that also work?

One more thing, I never had birth certificate, so I got one issued from India in 2007. So issue date is 2007 while I born before way before 1980. So sometime officer gets confused as why issue date is not matching with birth date. Did anyone had such issue? Any help will be appreciated as I want to send this by tomorrow itself to not waste even a single day before Nov. 27th, after that date retrogression will be started :(
Please help me, if you have any such experince or knowledge. Thanks in advance.