EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[qesehmk]

Last Updated (Sep 15th 2013)

Friends,

Obtaining American Green Card is a crucial thing in every immigrant's life. However the journey is fraught with USCIS delays, apathetic employers and conniving managers that exploit the situation. To top it off the pain arising out of this, a GC applicant has to deal with the uncertainty of when s/he might get GC. This uncertainty keeps his/her life on hold in many situations. This blog aims to provide better clarity to immigrants so that they can make better decisions about life and career.

This blog is active for over 3 years now. People loved it for its objectivity, civility, transparency and collaborative and cooperative culture of participants.

Going forward.. we will use the same thread. This way people's bookmarks won't be messed up. We will archive and copy this entire thread into a new thread for 2013. We will use this thread for 2014. I will continue to update very first post of this thread and others can use this thread or create their own threads for predictions. I will provide directional prediction and continue to moderate the thread. My paid service at www.whereismygc.com will provide much more accurate and numbers based forecasting.

2013 Summary
In 2013 we saw "artificial" retrogression for EB2I. The reason I call it artificial is because the DOS could've chosen not to have retrogression by applying quarterly spillovers. However generally they choose to apply any spillovers at the end of year, thus EB2I happens to retrogress during entire year. However come Q4 i.e. Jul-Sep, it shows movement. We have called out this game every year and we have done it with flying colors. So EB2I folks need to understand that their retrogression is artificial during most of the year and then it catches up with a level where retrogression makes sense.

Anyway .. second key thing to remember from 2013 is FB spillover. EB received 18K extra visas from FB this year. This certainly helped EB2I tremendously and the dates moved into mid 2008. Without this spillover, the year was going to be tough for a multiple reasons. 1) We think EB2ROW not only didn't provide any extra visas to EB2IC, but rather it consumed almost 3K extra visas. 2) EB5 too may not have provided any visas this year to EB1 and consequently to EB2. Thus FB spillover and about 4-5K extra spillover from EB1 is what saved the day for EB2I for 2013.

The third interesting thing we observed this year is the divergence of EB2I and EB2C. Looks like that divergence is going to stay here because EB2C indeed has quite less demand. However funnily EB3C has advanced further than EB2C which is quite baffling. I think that clearly talks volumes about disillusioned EB3C folks who seems to have opted to go back to china or upgrade to EB2 to the level where almost nobody is left in EB3C which made the dates move fast. We saw the same phenomenon play out in EB3I where dates moved much quicker than anticipated. This movement is most likely sustainable. The underlying cause being portings, cancellations and abandonment of GC applications. Finally again the same phenomenon played out in EB3ROW where the dates moved quite faster than expected. What is more interesting and somewhat alarming in EB3ROW trend is that for a couple of years EB2ROW may continue to see the effect of porting and may have unusual demand which will reduce any extra spillover to EB2I.


2014 Outlook

The fact that Oct shows no retrogression for EB2I is a good sign. It means that DOS made a calibrated movement for EB2I and most of the backlog through Jun 2008 will be cleared using FY 2013 quota.

In 2014 there may not be any FB spillover and if so, that is going to be a bad news for EB2I which may not see movement beyond Dec 2008. Here are some directional things about each category.
EB1 - Will stay current and might provide 3-5K spillover to EB2.
EB2ROW - might consumer 3-4K more than its allocation.
EB3ROW - will likely continue its forward march.
EB5 - will likely provide 4-5K spillover.
EB4 - will provide 3-4K spillover.

Thus EB2I might land up with 8K spillover + 3K allocation which should be sufficient to move the dates around end of 2008 or beginning of 2009.

Of course right now we do not have good data to back this up. So take this for what it's worth only as a directional commentary.

Good luck to everybody.

p.s. I will continue to update this thread and provide critical / directional commentary once a month.

Regards
Q

For more general information and 2013 old forecast please read below:

General Prediction - anybody in EB2IC category who is interested in understanding time to get GC - should keep in mind 2 things:
1. Time to GC is generally 4-5 years since your PD.
2. Time to GC is a step function. i.e. generally more % of approvals come between Jun-Sep every years. Oct-May is generally uneventful for most people. The reason being - that generally USCIS/DOS do NOT do quarterly spillover and hence for EB2IC the monthly quota is paltry and very few people can get their GC in that quota. The major dates movement happens at the end of USCIS year i.e. between Jun-Sep every year.


2013 Prediction (Updated based on DOS data) - Updated 11 Jul 03

Summary Prediction - EB2IC backlog will be cleared between Feb-July 2008 by Sep 2013 based on my personal calculations.

Reasoning

Headwinds to EB2IC
1. EB5 - Looks like EB5 will yield little to none SOFAD. There is strong demand in EB5 both in 485 as well as CP cases. (9k YTD usage already confirmed)
2. EB2ROW - EB2ROW most likely is not going to yield any extra visas to EB2IC. EB2ROW has quite strong demand (50% more compared to last year). Its possible that ROW will consume between 1-5K more than its usual quota. (assuming 5K porting)
3. EB4 - Has strong demand and will probably yield 3K to EB1.
4. EB1 - Has strong demand and will yield about 5K to EB1.

Tailwinds to EB2IC
1. The only thing working for EB2IC is the 18K extra family visas. Of them EB2IC will receive 9K since EB3 and EB5 are going to require all the extra visas they get.

Thus EB2IC should expect to receive overall 9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +5K (EB1) +6K (Quota) - 5K (ROW overage) = 18K visas.

That should be sufficient to clear EB2IC backlog upto May 2008.

The upside to the May 2008 forecast could be upto Jul 2008 and the downside is Feb 2008. The risk or opportunity both lie in EB2ROW this year. The other categories don't have much variables. Any hopes of dates moving into 2009 in a sustainable manner this year are zero if any. The dates could still move into 2009 if CO wants to build any inventory. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Those interested in playing these scenarios themselves can use the paid service at www.whereismygc.com (http://www.whereismygc.com) especially if you want to build your own forecast etc. Good luck.

[veni001]

Guesstimated Predictions for FY2013!

EB1:
10/4/12 - pending Inventory ~14k
Estimated new demand ~18K
Expected Spillover ~8K

EB2ROW-M-P:
10/4/12 - pending Inventory ~18k
Estimated new demand ~17K
Expected Spillover ~0

EB4:
Expected Spillover ~0

EB5:
10/4/12 - pending Inventory ~20
About 4K I-526 pending with USCIS
Expected Spillover ~4-5K

EB2IC annual allocation: 5.6K

Total Estimated SOFAD : ~18K

Spillover is not expected until Q4 of FY2013 and EB2IC should end around April-June 2008


Update: 02/17/13

FB -->EB : ~18K

With the addition of FB Spillover FY2013-EB2IC should end around Oct-Dec 2008.

[Spectator]

Update on June 12, 2013

There is a fairly strong indication that "the priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance as far as February 2008 in the August or September Visa Bulletin".

That can be interpreted to mean a Cut Off Date between 01FEB08 and 01MAR08 depending how you parse the statement.

Without any porting, progress to those dates would take between 9-10k.

With porting of anywhere between 4-7k, that would be 13-17k total approvals to EB2-I if every case was approved. In reality, some people will be "left behind", so the likely number of approvals will be towards the lower end of that range.

The bright spot might be if EB2-WW approvals continue to slow. That would allow slightly further movement. The "elephant in the room" is the level of EB1 approvals, which no-one has a good handle on.


Update on April 04, 2013

Only because people seem to want one. The information available isn't very clear.

EB2-I might receive anything between 8k and 17k approvals, depending on how EB1 and EB2-WW perform. A mid point would be about 13 - 15k approvals i.e. towards the upper end.

Assuming not all cases are approved, that might move the Cut Off dates to the end of February/March 2008, using that mid point. At the upper end, June 2008 might be possible.

If a significant number of porting cases are delayed (due to RFE or processing time when they become Current), then the Cut Off Dates could move a bit further than mentioned above.

More time is needed to see what EB1 and EB2-WW will do in the coming months. Assumed Porting numbers have to be a guess and may be wrong.


Update on March 10, 2013 to make things clearer

The FY2012 DOS Visa statistics provided some very nice surprises.

FB underused their allocation and may provide as many as 13.2k extra visas to EB2.

EB4 did not use their full allocation again and I now feel confident to allow some spillover from EB4.

EB1 had high usage in FY2012, but this may be a rebound effect from Kazarian in FY2011. Nonetheless, for prediction purposes I am going to use a lower figure for FY2013.

EB2-ROW and EB2-Philippines were on target to use or exceed their allocation, while EB2-Mexico would still have provided spare numbers had retrogression not been imposed.

Currently, I am using the following spillover numbers for FY2013 based on 158k being available to EB:

EB1 ------ 10.2
EB2-M --- }
EB2-P --- } 0.0
EB2-ROW - }
EB3 ------- 0.0
EB4 ------- 3.3
EB5 ------- 1.3
Total ---- 14.8 k spillover.

At that level EB2-China would receive 1k as 7% of Fall Down, giving 4.2k with the initial allocation of 3.2k.

EB2-India would have around 17k visas available including the 3.2k initial allocation.

That might be sufficient to clear all cases to about April 2008.

The above is probably a mid point. There are still big doubts about the performance of EB1 and EB2-ROW/P. For instance, if EB1 were use 40k again in FY2013, then dates might struggle to even be in early 2008.

Also, as mentioned above, it assumes that all cases will be cleared. We know that is never the case, so Cut Off Dates will probably move slightly further than that.

Movement into 2009 now seems impossible.

Where the dates move to is going to depend on the performance of EB1, EB2-ROW and just how many porting applications there are / are approved.


Posted January 01, 2013

Q1 is now history.

I am relatively less optimistic based on the Trackitt figures to date, although I would like to see the actual FY2012 numbers.

Any hope of spillover from EB5 must now be discounted.

EB4 was artificially low in FY2011 due the withdrawal of concurrent filing for Religious Workers cases part way through the year. Unless there is specific evidence to the contrary, EB4 can be expected to return to full usage. The FY2012 figures from DOS will confirm this theory (or not).

EB2-WW has used approaching 40% of their yearly allocation in 3 months. Barring extremely slow adjudication times, EB2-WW looks like it will use its entire allocation and there is some risk of EB2-WW also using spillover available from EB1.

Judging from CO comments on August 30, 2012:


• Employment Based (EB)-1 visa usage is extremely high. August 2012 was at a near record high. The Visa Office does not know why.

Is USCIS clearing out backlogs because of the new Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or is this pent up demand from 2011, or more “upgrades”? The answer is unknown.

The EB-1 visa category could close in September if usage remains this high (close the 40,000). It would then go current in October.

In July 2012, EB-1 usage was almost 3,000, of which roughly 1,200 had 2011 or earlier priority dates, and the rest had 2012 priority dates.

The 13,000 unused EB-1 numbers that were expected in FY2012, and which would then “drop down” to EB-2, did not happen.

EB1 usage in FY2012 approached 40k. Again, the official Visa Statistics will tell the truth of this.

The USCIS Inventory does not suggest backlog reduction, since the October 2011 and October 2012 EB1 figures are almost identical.

Relatively high EB1 usage in FY2013 must also be expected.

The signs are that there will be very little spillover available in FY2013. In fact, adjusted for various factors, the underlying spillover in FY2012 wasn't very high either, but a combination of the extra visas available from FB and the use by EB2-IC of EB2-WW visas only made it look so.

All this tends to point to EB2-I only having 6k or less total visas available to them in FY2013. The majority of these will be consumed by porting cases, leaving very few to clear existing cases.

An ending Cut Off Date in mid 2007 will be a good result, but that is not guaranteed. I do not think there is any chance of the Cut Off date reaching 2008. The actual number of porting cases approved will determine the final Cut Off Date.

Added January 04, 2013 to be consistent with other posts

Spillover -- Min ----- Max --- Avge.
EB1 ---------- 0 --- 5,000 --- 2,500
EB2-WW -- (5,000) ------ 0 -- (2,500)
EB4 ---------- 0 --- 2,000 --- 1,000
EB5 ---------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0
Total --- (5,000) -- 7,000 --- 1,000

Approvals Available to EB2-India

EB2-I ---- 2,803 --- 9,803 --- 6,303


Posted September 25, 2012

At this moment, a prediction for FY2013 is a fools errand because of so many unknowns.

With the scant information available, here goes anyway.

A mid-point scenario might see EB2-I receive 9.8k visas in FY2013 (7k extra).

That would move Cut Off Dates to the very beginning of 2008, if 4.5k porting was assumed.

Numbers are much less in the period Jan 1, 2008 to March 14, 2008 than the remainder of 2008 due the extra month they had for approval in FY2012. Only a further 2.5k are required to hit this mark. Since not all cases will be closed out, even 9.8k visas for EB2-I can move the Cut Off date into this territory. After that 1.1 - 1.3k per month are required in 2008.

Personally, I think EB1 will hit at least 35k in FY2013.

Big unknowns are whether EB2-WW either uses spillover, uses none, or give some fall across. Increased usage by Philippines is not a good indicator.

EB5 will give little to no spillover (maybe 2k at most).

EB4 is an unknown quantity. In FY2011, it gave significant spillover. It remains to be seen whether this was a once off event, or whether it will be repeated. A better idea will become apparent when the FY2012 DOS Statistics are published. Hopefully, we will see a return to them being published in January, rather than August.

I differ with some and think porting numbers may be higher than I have indicated above. If USCIS have followed their own AFM, then none of the cases submitted since dates became Unavailable will yet appear in the DOS Demand Data, since the final conversion (and thus visa request under EB2) cannot take place until the PD is Current.

The very best I think is possible (but less likely) with all favorable possibilities is mid 2008.

If some assumptions don't pan out, then the dates will end in 2007.

The (very, very unlikely) worst scenario really is too dire to contemplate.

China will move completely independently of India and end at some point in 2008.

The information available at the moment is poor. The prediction can be refined when that situation improves with time.

Don't take it too seriously at the moment.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I think we should not fret over the last VB for EB2-I. It was determined by 1350 cases before 2007. This is largely due to EB2 – I being unavailable so these cases did not get approved last year itself.

The bulletin itself is driven by the 240 – 250 monthly allocation so the dates have been set almost symbolically to have just this number of individuals eligible. Notice that China has is far ahead because there is hardly any porting for China. EB2-I fundamentals are still ok if not great largely due to flash approvals which definitely ate into EB2 ROW in feb – mar so essentially this year is payback time. Despite all that 15K SOFAD is likely.

There is an interesting pattern on EB2 ROW approvals this year which may explain why there was no advancement in EB2 I/C dates. This is from Trackitt EB2 ROW approvals primary only.
Oct 2012 to May 2013 - 754
Oct 2011 to May 2012 - 588
This represents 28% extra consumption.
Now we do know that last year due to high volume approvals for EB2 I/C in feb / mar 2012 these were far more than the numbers could support so ROW cases approval did move to the next year.
So we should filter out Oct and Nov 2012 and then compare over the corresponding periods.
Dec 2012 to May 2013 - 527
Dec 2011 to May 2013 - 489
If we compare these time durations then the numbers are comparable.
EB2 Mexico and Philippines normally do not consume much in EB2, EB2 I/C would take their share. Easily we can see that ROW would take 8- 10K extra visa this year when compared to last year.
With this most likely Eb2 Row would not give any SOFAD, however the numbers do indicate that it would not take any SOFAD away either that would come from EB5 / EB1 including 12K out of 18K extra FB spillover. So even if EB1 does not give anything there is still 12K to apply. But seems like extreme caution is being exercised to use that. Overall EB2 would be SOFAD neutral this year. .

[nishant2200]

FY 2013

EB2 India : Dec 2007 to Mid 2008 range

[bookworm]

Here's to hoping that all the great folks on the blog get their GC in 2013!!

[Pedro Gonzales]

Here's to hoping that all the great folks on the blog get their GC in 2013!!

BW, I believe all the great folks from this blog got their GCs in 2012 (Q, Spec, Veni, TK, N2.2K). But here's to hoping the great many folk out here do get it in 2013. :)

[nishant2200]

BW, I believe all the great folks from this blog got their GCs in 2012 (Q, Spec, Veni, TK, N2.2K). But here's to hoping the great many folk out here do get it in 2013. :)
Yes Pedro, miracles absolutely do happen in CO's world. If having a stable job, one should sit it out and just get done with it.

[GCKnowHow]

Wish everyone a happy new year (uscis calendar) :) Hope I would get my gc this year. Before I complete 5 years mark.

[june2010]

I have been a silent follower of this great forum for more than a year now and i am constantly amazed by the depth of knowledge and analysis provided here. Needless to say that I thank each and every one of you who have contributed and helped others to get better understanding of this long process. Having said that, where do people think the PD will swing to in 2013 for EB2I ? Is there a strong possibility that it crosses mid-2010 or later in order to build up the inventory again?

[imdeng]

Hi Friends,

Just saying a big Hello to all of you for the new thread. I have not been around much lately and when I did venture this side, I mostly read silently. Expecting to be back on a more regular basis going forward.

Glad to see that all the regulars (Q, S, T...) are around and contributing, as always.

Update on my situation: I am in the EAD/AP world (and thankful to be here). Before the current slowdown, I had expected my GC to be done before the end of FY2014 - but I am not so sure now. This actually puts a spanner in the works for me since my current contract is up to the end of 2014 academic year and it is likely that it will not be renewed. I guess I will be looking around for info on how to change jobs and keep GC process alive while living in a EAD/AP universe. Anybody has any experience/thoughts?

Best,
imdeng

[imdeng]

I doubt that CO will face a need to build inventory in FY2013 given the number of pending 485s. I guess if a good number of those are used up in FY2013, then inventory building might become an option some time in FY2014 - not before that.


I have been a silent follower of this great forum for more than a year now and i am constantly amazed by the depth of knowledge and analysis provided here. Needless to say that I thank each and every one of you who have contributed and helped others to get better understanding of this long process. Having said that, where do people think the PD will swing to in 2013 for EB2I ? Is there a strong possibility that it crosses mid-2010 or later in order to build up the inventory again?

[Eb2_Dec07]

Guys , any predictions when the first swing might happen this fiscal for EB2-I.

And how far the first sweep might be. On another note , if there are qualifying EB3 to Eb2 porters with PD between 2006 thr 2007 , don't they have to wait a little longer until they get their 485 application in to the stream and wait for the process of pre-adjudication and RFEs etc etc ....What I'm trying to point out is if there were to be a big swing in to end of 2007 or 2008 then pre-adjudicated cases based on PD should get an immediate shot at getting the GC correct . Please correct me if I'm missing anything.

[veni001]

Guys , any predictions when the first swing might happen this fiscal for EB2-I.

And how far the first sweep might be. On another note , if there are qualifying EB3 to Eb2 porters with PD between 2006 thr 2007 , don't they have to wait a little longer until they get their 485 application in to the stream and wait for the process of pre-adjudication and RFEs etc etc ....What I'm trying to point out is if there were to be a big swing in to end of 2007 or 2008 then pre-adjudicated cases based on PD should get an immediate shot at getting the GC correct . Please correct me if I'm missing anything.

Eb2_Dec07,

We have to see EB2ROW coming back to "C" first and the inventory date till end of last FY (if and when available) will shed some light on the probabilities.

This will be another interesting year!

[imdeng]

For sure. We have already had three very good years from EB2IC perspective. I guess we are due for a less-than-stellar year now. But, I agree with Q that we will catch up to the long term average for EB2IC (4 years for EAD, 5 for GC).

Also - we are passing through the densest period for EB2I. Things should ease up a bit once we cross the mid-2008 point (until we hit the dense-again period of 2010 PDs).


This will be another interesting year!

[justvisiting]

So, USCIS was approving EB1 as of 9/28/2012 (according to trackitt). We also never saw a formal statement from DOS announcing that numbers have been exausted.

I have a suspicion Mr. C.O. overreacted to USCIS's hyper-productivity in March, USCIS slowed down EB1s, and regretfully, visa numbers were wasted.

[gc_soon]

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/02/key-immigration-programs-extended/
Does this mean, there will be no EB4 and EB5 for the next 2 years?

[Spectator]

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/02/key-immigration-programs-extended/
Does this mean, there will be no EB4 and EB5 for the next 2 years?The opposite really.

A subset of both EB4 and EB5 was due to sunset on September 30, 2012. This was reflected in the October VB.


D. SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF TWO EMPLOYMENT VISA CATEGORIES

Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR): Pursuant to Section 568(a)(1) of Public Law 111-83, the non-minister special immigrant program expires on September 30, 2012. No SR visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2012. Visas issued prior to this date will only be issued with a validity date of September 30, 2012, and all individuals seeking admission as a non-minister special immigrant must be admitted (repeat, admitted) into the U.S. no later than midnight September 30, 2012.

Employment Fifth Preference Pilot Categories (I5 and R5): Section 548 of Public Law 111-83 extended this immigrant investor pilot program through September 30, 2012. The I5 and R5 visas may be issued until close of business on September 30, 2012, and may be issued for the full validity period. No I5 or R5 visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2012.

The cut-off dates for the categories mentioned above have been listed as “Unavailable” for October. Congress is currently considering an extension of the SR, I5 and R5 visa categories, but there is no certainty when such legislative action may occur. If there is legislative action extending one or both of these categories for FY-2013, those cut-off dates would immediately become “Current” for October.

Had the legislation not been extended, there would have been fewer applicants in EB4 and probably in EB5 as well because many use projects set up though the Pilot Program.

Since the legislation has now been extended until September 30, 2015, these Categories will now be Current in the October VB and the expected numbers will be unchanged.

[Spectator]

They can be found here (https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do)

As of August 31, 2012 the processing dates for EB I-485 were:

NSC - 4 months
TSC - 06 March 2012

Hopefuly that means when the new Inventory for October is released, TSC will have dealt with all cases until early April.

That should mean relatively few cases will not be in the Inventory and also most cases should be preadjudicated.

[imdeng]

Spec - I am not sure about everybody being pre-adj. I mentioned in a different thread that I called to figure out whether I am pre-adj and the lady would not commit on my case and kept repeating "Alll AOS cases are pre-adjudicated".

Specifically for my case, my status is still "Acceptance" and I have not received an RFE for my BC and Flu - which if they looked at my papers - they should be asking for. Just one data point here - but it puts in doubt whether they are really pre-adj all the cases in the 4 months timeframe for NSC. My RD/ND is early Feb in NSC.

PS> Thank you for your tireless work here Spec. May be we don't say this enough - certainly not enough to do any justice to your time, effort and openness to help one and all - so again - Thank You!


They can be found here (https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do)

As of August 31, 2012 the processing dates for EB I-485 were:

NSC - 4 months
TSC - 06 March 2012

Hopefuly that means when the new Inventory for October is released, TSC will have dealt with all cases until early April.

That should mean relatively few cases will not be in the Inventory and also most cases should be preadjudicated.

[Spectator]

Spec - I am not sure about everybody being pre-adj. I mentioned in a different thread that I called to figure out whether I am pre-adj and the lady would not commit on my case and kept repeating "Alll AOS cases are pre-adjudicated".

Specifically for my case, my status is still "Acceptance" and I have not received an RFE for my BC and Flu - which if they looked at my papers - they should be asking for. Just one data point here - but it puts in doubt whether they are really pre-adj all the cases in the 4 months timeframe for NSC. My RD/ND is early Feb in NSC.

PS> Thank you for your tireless work here Spec. May be we don't say this enough - certainly not enough to do any justice to your time, effort and openness to help one and all - so again - Thank You!imdeng,

Thanks for the kind words.

I hear what you say about pre-adjudication and I think you are probably correct.

Unfortunately, that also means that the DOS Demand figures will undercount the true numbers, since USCIS will not request the visa until pre-adjudication is complete.

Sometimes it's just nice to wish. Would it have taken so much effort to have added another stage in the online status to reflect pre-adjudication when they changed the system?

I don't think so. It just reflects that USCIS are not, despite what they might want people to believe, very customer orientated.

[vizcard]

imdeng,

Thanks for the kind words.

I hear what you say about pre-adjudication and I think you are probably correct.

Unfortunately, that also means that the DOS Demand figures will undercount the true numbers, since USCIS will not request the visa until pre-adjudication is complete.

Sometimes it's just nice to wish. Would it have taken so much effort to have added another stage in the online status to reflect pre-adjudication when they changed the system?

I don't think so. It just reflects that USCIS are not, despite what they might want people to believe, very customer orientated.

Which could mean that the dates might move faster (whenever they do move) than they should and then retrogress again.

[camilosesto83]

Question on I-129 form

Hi Folks,

I have a question on form I-129 for H1b filing during change of employer.

In part 4, they ask "Have you ever filed an immigrant petition for any beneficiary in this petition"

The new employer for whom I intend to work (who is filing this I-129) has not filed any immigrant petition for me. But I have an approved I-140 with my previous employer. In this case, should the answer be yes or no.

Thanks in advance

Camilo

[chengisk]

Which could mean that the dates might move faster (whenever they do move) than they should and then retrogress again.

Technically isn't that one of the reasons the dates moved all the way into 2010? - other than tardy receipts.

[qesehmk]

Camilo - welcome to forum.
I-129 is an employer form. So the question is being asked to the new employer who hasn't yet filed immigrant petition for you. So the answer is "NO".
Not sure why you are filling out the form. just helping out the employer?

Question on I-129 form

Hi Folks,

I have a question on form I-129 for H1b filing during change of employer.

In part 4, they ask "Have you ever filed an immigrant petition for any beneficiary in this petition"

The new employer for whom I intend to work (who is filing this I-129) has not filed any immigrant petition for me. But I have an approved I-140 with my previous employer. In this case, should the answer be yes or no.

Thanks in advance

Camilo

[camilosesto83]

Camilo - welcome to forum.
I-129 is an employer form. So the question is being asked to the new employer who hasn't yet filed immigrant petition for you. So the answer is "NO".
Not sure why you are filling out the form. just helping out the employer?

Thanks for your reply Sir. The lawyer apparently copied me on the forms that she sent to the employer and I was just going through it. But then if they say No to that questions, where else would they mention the fact that I have an approved I-140, so that I can get a 3 yr extension.

[gc0907]

I think you will have to attach I-140 approval notice.
Your company lawyer should know what to do in such cases.
You might want to check this discussion (http://www.justanswer.com/immigration-law/6ocos-h1b-approved-i-140-if-change-employer.html)as well.


Thanks for your reply Sir. The lawyer apparently copied me on the forms that she sent to the employer and I was just going through it. But then if they say No to that questions, where else would they mention the fact that I have an approved I-140, so that I can get a 3 yr extension.

[yank]

Hi,

Sorry for posting this question in this forum!

I am in a process of filing EAD/AP renewal by myself and have few questions:

1. I live and work in Illinois so as per USCIS site I have dispatch documents to USCIS Phoenix Lockbox. Correct?

For U.S. Postal Service (USPS) deliveries:

USCIS
PO Box 21281
Phoenix, AZ 85036

For Express mail and courier deliveries:

USCIS
Attn: AOS
1820 E. Skyharbor Circle S
Suite 100
Phoenix, AZ 85034

2. In the cover letter which USCIS address shall I mention? Phoenix lockbox or Nebraska service center

NEBRASKA SERVICE CENTER
U.S. CITIZENSHIP & IMMIG SERVICE
P.O. Box 82521
LINCOLN, NE 68501-2521

Please advise.

[camilosesto83]

GC0907 thanks for your reply.

I have one more question. My joining date with my new employer is November 7, 2012. November 6, 2012 will be my last day with my current employer. I have not used any of my vacation days this year and hence my current employer says he will pay me for full of november to balance that. Is that legal, should I accept that payment, will it violate my h1b since from Nov 7 to 30, I will get pay stubs from 2 different employers. Or is this overlap period typical in most cases.

Thanks

Camilo

[ramesh1201]

Ask you employer to pay it as a Bonus. Don't take it as Salary.

[vizcard]

Technically isn't that one of the reasons the dates moved all the way into 2010? - other than tardy receipts.

CO moved the dates aggressively because of low inventory.

[qesehmk]

Friends

Please vote for your charity for October. We have opened a new poll for October donations. As you are aware - teh donations are made using this site's ad revenues.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made

[sbhagwat2000]

Hello I am new to this forum and I can say that the info here is the best I have seen. I have a few questions . Can someone please take a crack at the following as I have to make some decisions as to what to do with my future in the USA

1. My PD is 2005 EB2I. Any hope it will be current in the next 2-3 months?

2. I was looking at the 485 inventory. How come there are applications even in years 1999 and 2000. What applications are those?

3. So I calculated the number of applications before Jan 1 2007 in the May inventory. That adds up to 1200 including all the applications - even those dated 1999. Now in the DD released with the bulletin the demand before Jan 1 2007 was 1350. How is that? I thought the demand data is a subset of the inventory? Does that mean the inventory is useless and things like interfiling which are used mostly in porting are not reflected in the inventory?

Just looking for clarity. Would really appreciate if someone can answer the above

Thanks!!!!

[cricfan]

My PD is Mar 2010 in EB2I. I think, it will take sometime for my PD to become current once again. So, I am thinking of switching based on my current EAD. My current labor has a degree requirement of M.S. Degree. Does my new job has to have a requirement of M.S. or will it be fine if the job requirement is B.S. + 5 yrs experience ? The job duties will remain same. Can someone please advise me ?

[nishant2200]

My PD is Mar 2010 in EB2I. I think, it will take sometime for my PD to become current once again. So, I am thinking of switching based on my current EAD. My current labor has a degree requirement of M.S. Degree. Does my new job has to have a requirement of M.S. or will it be fine if the job requirement is B.S. + 5 yrs experience ? The job duties will remain same. Can someone please advise me ?

EAD job change after 180 days pending 485 only cares for same or similar job, which looks like is your case.

Labor stuff u mention is no longer applicable in this kind of granularity.

[cricfan]

Thanks Nishant. Appreciate your response.

[username]

I got a good offer from XYZ company with same and similar job role and duties. But new company wanted me to join them on EAD (strictly no H1B transfer).

- Is it 100% safe to invoke AC21 after 180 days of I485 filing?

- There is any risk involve in use of AC21?

I am getting worried in switching status from H1B to EAD at this stage of GC processing. Need some guidance.

Thanks!!!

[vizcard]

I got a good offer from XYZ company with same and similar job role and duties. But new company wanted me to join them on EAD (strictly no H1B transfer).

- Is it 100% safe to invoke AC21 after 180 days of I485 filing?

- There is any risk involve in use of AC21?

I am getting worried in switching status from H1B to EAD at this stage of GC processing. Need some guidance.

Thanks!!!

It is 100% safe. The only long term risk (though minimal) is if you get your GC app rejected, there is no H1 safety net.

[username]

It is 100% safe. The only long term risk (though minimal) is if you get your GC app rejected, there is no H1 safety net.

But why (or in what circumstances) my GC app might get rejected?

[ton_vj]

Guru,
Please move this post, if you find this inappropriate to this discussion. I need a help! As this thread is very much live and many of us watch this every hour. I need your help and guidance as i am in deep agony.

6th year completed on July 3rd 2012. And company A revoked my H1 on June 20th. ( Labor Cleared at that time)
Joined with company B on June 1st, but company B applied H1 on June 24th(Receipt Date), went to RFE and subsequently H1 Denied on Oct 6th.
Went back to Company A in July ( I-140 Approved on Aug 17th -Notice Date, H1B filed on Sep 24th for consular processing, Now H1 went to RFE on Oct 8th)
Please see below the statement from USCIS and this is the only RFE i got.

RFE details:

Maintaining Status:

"Provide the Following evidence to establish that the beneficiary was in a Valid non-Immigration Status at the time the petition was filed:

The Petition was filed on Sep 24th, 2012. The record indicates that there is a pending petition for the beneficiary, WAC1218xxxxx. The Record also Indicates that the previous petition with the same petitioner, WAC1013xxxxx, was revoked on June 20th, 2012. therefore provide the evidence of the beneficiary's non-immigration Status from June 20th to Sep 24th, 2012 "

Now my question is i have spent 10 months between July 2009 till April 2010 on H4. And currently my I-140 is also approved, having said that what are my chances for H1 stamping through consular processing?

Does anybody had this Issue before, Please share your experience

[gc_soon]

Hello I am new to this forum and I can say that the info here is the best I have seen. I have a few questions . Can someone please take a crack at the following as I have to make some decisions as to what to do with my future in the USA

1. My PD is 2005 EB2I. Any hope it will be current in the next 2-3 months?

2. I was looking at the 485 inventory. How come there are applications even in years 1999 and 2000. What applications are those?

3. So I calculated the number of applications before Jan 1 2007 in the May inventory. That adds up to 1200 including all the applications - even those dated 1999. Now in the DD released with the bulletin the demand before Jan 1 2007 was 1350. How is that? I thought the demand data is a subset of the inventory? Does that mean the inventory is useless and things like interfiling which are used mostly in porting are not reflected in the inventory?

Just looking for clarity. Would really appreciate if someone can answer the above

Thanks!!!!

I believe the demand data also includes CP cases which the I485 inventory won't include.

[vizcard]

But why (or in what circumstances) my GC app might get rejected?

Never heard of a case where one was rejected. So can't answer that question. Like i said, the risk is minimal. I should probably have said infinitesimally small.

[GhostWriter]

You might find the report for 2011 at the below link useful.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY11AnnualReport-Table%20XX.pdf

The column for "immigrants" corresponds to GC cases (includes all EB, FB and immediate relative applications for AOS and CP cases).
Of the 382K grounds of inelligibility
- 313K correspond to 221(g) usually issued for lack of documentation in CP cases
- 26K correspond to unlawful presence in US for more than 1 year
- 15K correspond to Labor certification (not sure but probably only applicable for CP cases)


But why (or in what circumstances) my GC app might get rejected?

[username]

You might find the report for 2011 at the below link useful.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY11AnnualReport-Table%20XX.pdf

The column for "immigrants" corresponds to GC cases (includes all EB, FB and immediate relative applications for AOS and CP cases).
Of the 382K grounds of inelligibility
- 313K correspond to 221(g) usually issued for lack of documentation in CP cases
- 26K correspond to unlawful presence in US for more than 1 year
- 15K correspond to Labor certification (not sure but probably only applicable for CP cases)

Thanks for the info.

I don't fall in any of above categories. So in other words I am safe to invoke AC21 and move to new employer using EAD?

[nishant2200]

Never heard of a case where one was rejected. So can't answer that question. Like i said, the risk is minimal. I should probably have said infinitesimally small.

Agreed. Also if GC rejected, IMO your H1 is doomed too, unlawful stay, illegal fraud etc.

Just make sure your new job is same or similar, I think vertical progression is ok. For eg, software engineer to senior engineer or team lead or software manager, but not qa analyst or project manager etc

[nishant2200]

I got a good offer from XYZ company with same and similar job role and duties. But new company wanted me to join them on EAD (strictly no H1B transfer).

- Is it 100% safe to invoke AC21 after 180 days of I485 filing?

- There is any risk involve in use of AC21?

I am getting worried in switching status from H1B to EAD at this stage of GC processing. Need some guidance.

Thanks!!!

If you are getting boost in career, ie great job profile or > 20% raise, go for it. No risk IMO. Btw you should be in this FY eith 12/2007 PD, 90% chance.

[username]

If you are getting boost in career, ie great job profile or > 20% raise, go for it. No risk IMO. Btw you should be in this FY eith 12/2007 PD, 90% chance.

Thank you guys!!!!

[asankaran]

Latest demand data is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[june2010]

Why is the EB2I demand higher (37200) from the previous month (34000). I doubt this is attributed to porting since the rise is numbers is in year '07,'08 and '09.

[vishnu]

thats just more I-485 applications being preadjudicated. think we are close to the top...unlikely that there are many more 485s that are yet to be pre-adjudicated

[redsox2009]

More cases from 2008 and 2009 were added as expetcted.

Looks like China date will progress.

I'm not sure if the ROW will become current. I highly doubt.

[openaccount]

Not bad from Demand Data EB2ROW were shot of 5.5k to 6k max in FY2012. I was expecting this to be around 8 k. So EB2ROW will be 'C' in November. EB2I should move to some where in 2005.

[druvraj]

Hi everyone,

Last year when the dates stopped somewhere close to mid year of 2007 I was confident that my PD(Feb-2008) will be current. I actually told my wife that 2012 will be the year we will get our GCs. The kind of year we had was totally unexpected. So this year I am kinda open minded by not making any prediction at the same time hoping that I will get it in 2013 full 5 years after I applied for the labor. Good luck to all.

It is Oct 10 and still the VB is not out.Surprising!!!???

[gc_soon]

EB3-I before Jan 1, 2007 as per demand data was 43,900 in Oct DD and now it's 43,500. Just a 400 reduction.
Other than monthly allocation of EB3-I, looks like less than 150 are porting cases with PD Jan 1,2007 that have been reflected in the latest DD.

Last month's DD from a Trackitt comment.
Last Month Demand Data

Employment Second Preference
Cumulative All Other
Demand Prior To Countries China India Grand Total
January 1, 2007 25 75 1,350 1,450
January 1, 2008 25 925 5,500 6,450
January 1, 2009 25 4,075 20,000 24,100
January 1, 2010 275 6,375 30,900 37,550
January 1, 2012 4,850 6,950 34,000 45,800

Employment Third Preference
Cumulative All Other Grand
Demand Prior To Countries China India Mexico Philippines Total
January 1, 2002 0 0 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2003 0 0 2,475 0 0 2,475
January 1, 2004 0 0 13,500 0 0 13,500
January 1, 2005 0 50 25,925 0 0 25,975
January 1, 2006 200 175 34,050 25 75 34,525
January 1, 2007 4,925 1,200 43,900 450 5,325 55,800
January 1, 2012 12,650 1,700 47,550 1,275 7,700 70,875

[RRRRRR]

Hi All,

It is the 8th business day of this month and no Visa bulletin yet,do you think they are cooking something really good...?

Thanks

[nilebib]

Hi All,

It is the 8th business day of this month and no Visa bulletin yet,do you think they are cooking something really good...?

Thanks

Not for EB2I :(, But I assume EB2 ROW will be current.

[vishnu]

ya, dont expect any positives for eb2 i until Q3/Q4 when spill over levels become clearer.

[goforgreen]

Hi All,

It is the 8th business day of this month and no Visa bulletin yet,do you think they are cooking something really good...?

Thanks

I was just thinking when will someone post saying "its already 10 and no bulletin, will it be good news ..." :-)

I know we always hope against hope, but I think CO is back to being overly cautious after being overly aggressive in moving dates in 2012.

On another note my Labour was filed for the role of Project Manager, is Data Architect/Technology Architect considered a similar role or not. I've completed 6 months of 485 filing and see many opportunities coming up, but most of them are in the roles I mentioned above. So wondering if it would be considered a similar job as the labour application.

[GCKnowHow]

EB3-I before Jan 1, 2007 as per demand data was 43,900 in Oct DD and now it's 43,500. Just a 400 reduction.
Other than monthly allocation of EB3-I, looks like less than 150 are porting cases with PD Jan 1,2007 that have been reflected in the latest DD.

Last month's DD from a Trackitt comment.
Last Month Demand Data ...........................


EB2I Demand reduced only 250 before Jan 07 and quite a lot increased for the rest. Seems like porting is on full swing.

Cumulative .........All Other
Demand Prior To...Countries...China ...India...Grand Total
January 1, 2007..........-25.......-75.....-250......-350
January 1, 2008.............0.....-100.......300.......200
January 1, 2009.............0........25....1,275.....1,300
January 1, 2010........-225.......125....2,400.....2,300
January 1, 2012.....-3,200.......250....3,200........250

[gc_soon]

EB2I Demand reduced only 250 before Jan 07 and quite a lot increased for the rest. Seems like porting is on full swing.

Cumulative .........All Other
Demand Prior To...Countries...China ...India...Grand Total
January 1, 2007..........-25.......-75.....-250......-350
January 1, 2008.............0.....-100.......300.......200
January 1, 2009.............0........25....1,275.....1,300
January 1, 2010........-225.......125....2,400.....2,300
January 1, 2012.....-3,200.......250....3,200........250

Good analysis. But as Vishnu pointed out in comment #52, it could be that more cases are getting pre-adjucated. Seeing the effect of porting might take some time, as it's been <10 days in VB and interfiling step could take 2-4 weeks.

[gkjppp]

My PD is Mar/2010. so atleast for next 1.5 to 2 years i cant dream about GC. recently i got one contract to hire offer. Salary is 20% more than what i make now, I am thinking to go for it.

1. My H1 is valid till Feb,2013. recently my employer asked me to fill I9 to change to EAD. Now working on EAD.is it possible to go back to H1 and renew it?

2.if I change my employer , its already 180 days completed. i see these days USCIS is sending denial letters instead of NOID. I think my current employer definetely revoke my I140, does this triggers 485 denial/NOID though i send them AC21?

[coolguy]

My PD is Mar/2010. so atleast for next 1.5 to 2 years i cant dream about GC. recently i got one contract to hire offer. Salary is 20% more than what i make now, I am thinking to go for it.

1. My H1 is valid till Feb,2013. recently my employer asked me to fill I9 to change to EAD. Now working on EAD.is it possible to go back to H1 and renew it?

2.if I change my employer , its already 180 days completed. i see these days USCIS is sending denial letters instead of NOID. I think my current employer definetely revoke my I140, does this triggers 485 denial/NOID though i send them AC21?

Once on EAD, your H1 is no more valid (if you didnt get it renewed). You cannot renew it.

If I140 gets revoked by the current employer, you may end up having problem when getting GC.

[imdeng]

I was looking through Spec's data repository and I was struck by the fact that amidst all the doom and gloom, FY2010 and FY2011 have been blockbuster years for EB2I. All time high SOFADs. I think we are in a phase of temporary hiatus, burning through the excesses of FY2012 - but soon we will be back to track. My hope is that the recent misadventures of CO will not dissuade him from continuing with quarterly (monthly?) spillovers when EB2ROW becomes current.

BTW - did Spec and others post their estimate of the SOFAD for FY2012? The search function of the board is not very effective, at least in my hands.

[imdeng]

Demand Data shows EB3 to be in a very interesting situation. C/M/ROW - everybody except I and P, are poised to enter the abyss after 07/07 in next few months. It will be very interesting to see what kind of density they get once they cross the threshold. While we perhaps overestimated the demand destruction situation in EB2I, I would not be surprised if the demand destruction is more real in the EB3 world.

[willywonka]

Hello gurus
Does the retrogression of Eb2I to 2004, monthly quota allocation and slow movement forward until summer of 2013 actually reduce the potential rate of porting ?
Does the impending financial cliff look bad enough to contribute any additional spillover for Eb2I than what we would get otherwise ?
Thanks

[GCKnowHow]

Once on EAD, your H1 is no more valid (if you didnt get it renewed). You cannot renew it.

If I140 gets revoked by the current employer, you may end up having problem when getting GC.

I think this is not correct. You can move to H1 as long as its valid. And H1 can be renewed until final decision on I485.

If AC21 is used then the application becomes invalid only if the employer revokes I-140 based on fraudulent info/data.

Experts please confirm.

[GCKnowHow]

Hello gurus
Does the retrogression of Eb2I to 2004, monthly quota allocation and slow movement forward until summer of 2013 actually reduce the potential rate of porting ?
Does the impending financial cliff look bad enough to contribute any additional spillover for Eb2I than what we would get otherwise ?
Thanks

I rather think otherwise. Slow movement gives ample opportunity for porting to use as much, before the dates forward. If a big movement happens then the most of the visa will be consumed by pre-adjucated applications.

[self.coach]

I think this is not correct. You can move to H1 as long as its valid. And H1 can be renewed until final decision on I485.

If AC21 is used then the application becomes invalid only if the employer revokes I-140 based on fraudulent info/data.

Experts please confirm.

What does significant salary change mean with regard to AC21? If one gets a job at another company that pays 40% more salary for the same position, would that casue the AC21 to be denieD?

[usernameisnotvalid]

User nt2012 with PD Sep 2008 EB2 recieved I-485 CPO mail ?!!??

[imdeng]

Source? Link?? Did I miss something somewhere???

User nt2012 with PD Sep 2008 EB2 recieved I-485 CPO mail ?!!??

[imdeng]

I do not have direct experience of this - but based on what I have read, if your job is in a similar area, then career progression (and hence more money) is not a problem. Even less salary is not a problem by itself (for example - if you move to a less expensive city). Look up Murthy's FAQ on AC21 - it is very informative. Also - I believe denials of AC21 are rare and happens only in egregious cases.


What does significant salary change mean with regard to AC21? If one gets a job at another company that pays 40% more salary for the same position, would that casue the AC21 to be denieD?

[Spectator]

User nt2012 with PD Sep 2008 EB2 recieved I-485 CPO mail ?!!??I think it is probably significant that the user used the phrase:


Posted by nt2012 (25) 34 minutes ago
I got an SMS this afternoon for my and my wife I-485 from TSC stating that Card Production Ordered and mailed today.

That suggests that they actually only had a document mailed to them, not actually a Card Production. it doesn't particularly suggest an approval to me.

[usernameisnotvalid]

It is trackkit.

I checked this guy's profile and he mentioned I-140 approval date Sep 2008 and his PD is also Sep 2008 ?!?!? Something is not correct. Typo?


Source? Link?? Did I miss something somewhere???

[usernameisnotvalid]

..and nt2012 is already under interrogation on trackkit! :)

[mbasense]

Thus, although the SOFAD prospects remain good for the foreseeable future, EB2-I will be unable to close or reduce the gap due to increasing demand. Long term, the queue is not sustainable.

very well said. if they choose not to regulate porting or have some sort of differenciator EB2-I will cease to be much different from EB3-I.

Q - you should add like buttons - a lot of posts from the gurus will surely rack up some numbers - might reduce some thank you clean ups too :)

[qesehmk]

mbasense - the like buttons on our forum is the star you see under each post. Unfortunately it is not very intuitive but it works exactly like the "like" buttons you are referring to.

Q - you should add like buttons - a lot of posts from the gurus will surely rack up some numbers - might reduce some thank you clean ups too :)

[ajaydons]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5779.html

No movement for EB2-I
EB2-I No movement
EB2-C 1.5 months movement
ROW- Current

[srimurthy]

ROW is C and China moves by 3 months and India surprisingly dates stay the same

[pdfeb09]

What does significant salary change mean with regard to AC21? If one gets a job at another company that pays 40% more salary for the same position, would that casue the AC21 to be denieD?


I do not have direct experience of this - but based on what I have read, if your job is in a similar area, then career progression (and hence more money) is not a problem. Even less salary is not a problem by itself (for example - if you move to a less expensive city). Look up Murthy's FAQ on AC21 - it is very informative. Also - I believe denials of AC21 are rare and happens only in egregious cases.

See if you find this AC21 Discussion (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?992-AC21-Discussion/page3) useful.

[openaccount]

EB2-I No movement


Either CO got information from USCIS that they are going to provide 250 visas for PDs prior to Sep 2004--Or--CO wants to gauge porting demand for October and then move dates in November(Dec VB) based on October porting demand--new portings added in month of October.

[redsox2009]

I belive next month we should see some movement for India Eb2 touching 2005. China should/will move close to 2008.

[usernameisnotvalid]

Now because ROW is current can we expect some miracles in last 2 quarters?

[qesehmk]

I belive next month we should see some movement for India Eb2 touching 2005. China should/will move close to 2008.

India should easily reach into 2007 Dec ... but if it will be in one month or 2 or 6 - can't say. By Sep 2013 EB2I should be in late 2008.

[CleanSock]

November bulletin is out. EB2I is at 1st Sept 04. No change.
EB2C : 1st Sept 2007.
EB2 ROW : Current

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I feel the VB is just fine. EB2 ROW is current which is good I think they should be quite literally able to clean out all EB2 ROW backlog. Approvals are coming quite steadily for both EB1 and EB2 ROW. EB2 China is also moving. Eb2 India will be just fine when the spillover starts in May 2013 until then I believe we should not be reading the dates literally because they are based on 250 per month. I do however believe that we will have 6K nett porting this year however atleast 2K of that should be attributed to the last year this will be significant in light of the fact that we are expecting reduced SOFAD this year. EB3-I anyone beyond Jan 2003 should definitely explore porting to get to GC faster in absence of any reforms.

[ChampU]

EB2-ROW - C is a huge relief..It reduces the "EB2 variables" to India and China. EB2-C is at a comfortable date, which EB2-I can easily catch up, barring any catastrophic rise in other visa numbers. If we assume 3k porting applications, prior to Sept. 1st 2007, it would take 6268 visas (2800 Regular quota visas+ SOFAD of 3468).

EB2-C would be a good date to follow moving forward. Assuming porting EB3C-EB2C porting is 0, just with its regular allocation, EB2-C will reach mid-August 2008. With a 3k porting estimate, EB2-I would need roughly 18600 vias (SO of roughly 16k).

[ChampU]

I had a question about EB2-ROW being Current..

EB2-ROW gets roughly 2750 visas per month.

A COD for EB2-ROW (01/01/2009) was put in place in the July bulletin.In the October visa bulletin, a COD of 01/01/2012 was put in place.

So it is safe to assume that whatever applications were pending between 01/01/2009-01/01/2012, were processed and approved before the Fiscal Year began. (possibly by the 5k visas received from FB).

EB2-ROW is C for the November bulletin.So the 5500 odd visas that were allocated to EB2-ROW this year ( 2750 each for Oct. and November), were enough to take care of their demand.

Even if we assume that these 5500 visas are strictly the cases between July and October, EB2-ROW demand is not more than 22k visas. Add to that the 5600 visas allocated to EB2-IC. Does that mean, we can expect a spillover of at least 8-10k from EB2-ROW?

[gc_soon]

Friends I feel the VB is just fine. EB2 ROW is current which is good I think they should be quite literally able to clean out all EB2 ROW backlog. Approvals are coming quite steadily for both EB1 and EB2 ROW. EB2 China is also moving. Eb2 India will be just fine when the spillover starts in May 2013 until then I believe we should not be reading the dates literally because they are based on 250 per month. I do however believe that we will have 6K nett porting this year however atleast 2K of that should be attributed to the last year this will be significant in light of the fact that we are expecting reduced SOFAD this year. EB3-I anyone beyond Jan 2003 should definitely explore porting to get to GC faster in absence of any reforms.

Hi Teddy,
It seems like CO is moving dates based on 250 per month. But even then, we should have seen dates still move (maybe by few months). Do we still have 250 more cases before Sep 2004 (after 250 that got or will be approved in Oct). Looks like porting is killing all the monthly quota.

[openaccount]

Hi Teddy,
It seems like CO is moving dates based on 250 per month. But even then, we should have seen dates still move (maybe by few months). Do we still have 250 more cases before Sep 2004 (after 250 that got or will be approved in Oct). Looks like porting is killing all the monthly quota.
Not an expert but here is my take.
VB was released on October 12th from Oct1-Oct10 there could have been some new porting numbers(probably<100) added to DD compared to previous month, that might have influenced in not moving PD. If in 10 days some X new porting numbers were added to DD then there is a fair chance for that number to become 2X by Nov1, that could be the reason for not moving PD.

[ChampU]

EB2-ROW is consuming much less than their annual quota. At the beginning of this FY, the DD showed their demand was close to 6K, which is only 2K per month. At that rate, they should yield 10K SO. Realistically though, 6K of that would be consumed by the carried over demand. So we could expect 4K SO from EB2-ROW.

I'm sorry, I didn't understand the calculation.

1. The ~6k Demand, that showed up in the Oct. Demand Data is the Carried Over Demand, correct?

2. Assuming the Demand is roughly 2k per month, the Demand for the month of November should have been 5300 (6000 (Carry Over) + 2000 (Oct. Demand) - 2700 (EB2-ROW quota) = 5300).

3. The Demand Shows up as 1650. It could mean either A. EB2-ROW received an excess of ~3.7k (5.3-1.6) visas in the month of October. Or B.The Residual Demand for October and Project November Demand Combined was 1050 (6000 -2700 (Oct.) - 2700 (Nov.) + 1050 = 1650).

The second scenario seems too good to be true and the first seems highly unlikely. What do you think?

[bvsamrat]

My take on this

As it will be difficult to estimate or predict demand for last 2-3 months, in which case those might be added back to EB2-I as spill over. Hence my guesstimate would be around 10K from EB2-ROW. May be at the expense of them being unavailable to EB2-ROW for 1-2 months!


I don't have the October demand data at my fingertips, but I believe it showed EB2-ROW being close to 6K. If you think about it, EB2-ROW was practically unavailable for 3 months, so the demand accumulated at the beginning of October shows the number that would have been approved in those 3 months. That works out @2K per month.

For the month of November, the demand number will be reduced substantially because many people must have been approved in October. Going forward, EB2-ROW demand should show 0, because they will be current at all times.

If EB2-ROW is going at around 2K a month, they will leave 34K - 2K*12 = 10K SO. Subtract the 6K accumulated from FY 2012, and they should yield close to 4K SO in July.

[gc_soon]

Thanks sportsfan on ROW demand explanation - makes sense. How could one guess the EB-1 demand, given the fact that, it is not mentioned in the demand data.
Hopefully 485 pending inventory that will be released(this month?) will give us some clue to Eb1 trends?

[GhostWriter]

ROW PERMs for FY-2012
The below links show a total of 67K PERMs filed in 2012. Subtracting 10K withdrawn and denied applications we get 57K which will ultimately get certified (52K are already certified, rest are pending). Of these 62% (35K) would be India and China, leaving 22K for ROW. This includes both EB2 and EB3.

http://www.kidambi.com/resources/perm%20statistics%202012.pdf

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/05/dol-issues-foreign-labor-certification-statistics/

Spec, i was comparing this number with your facts and data numbers for 2010 and 2011. Those are calender years so will be slightly off but since both are 12 months of data i guess they can still be compared for purposes of getting the trend. Both those years have 18-19K of PERMs for ROW. So this indicates slight increase in ROW-PERM filings in 2012.

Using a transformation ratio of 1 this should result in 22K EB2-ROW I-485s (some filed in 2012 and some in 2013). This should leave room for 10-12K spillover from EB2-ROW (on average). Will you agree or am i missing something. I think Q also had a similar question with past year ROW PERM data.

[ChampU]

ROW PERMs for FY-2012
The below links show a total of 67K PERMs filed in 2012. Subtracting 10K withdrawn and denied applications we get 57K which will ultimately get certified (52K are already certified, rest are pending). Of these 62% (35K) would be India and China, leaving 22K for ROW. This includes both EB2 and EB3.

http://www.kidambi.com/resources/perm%20statistics%202012.pdf

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/05/dol-issues-foreign-labor-certification-statistics/

Spec, i was comparing this number with your facts and data numbers for 2010 and 2011. Those are calender years so will be slightly off but since both are 12 months of data i guess they can still be compared for purposes of getting the trend. Both those years have 18-19K of PERMs for ROW. So this indicates slight increase in ROW-PERM filings in 2012.

Using a transformation ratio of 1 this should result in 22K EB2-ROW I-485s (some filed in 2012 and some in 2013). This should leave room for 10-12K spillover from EB2-ROW (on average). Will you agree or am i missing something. I think Q also had a similar question with past year ROW PERM data.

Thanks for the input,Ghostwriter.. It raises hopes for a lot of folks..

[imdeng]

EB3I is unlikely to get any spillover from anywhere. When, for example, EB3ROW cliff reaches, EB3ROW dates will be moved forward to get new inventory just like they did for EB2IC, preventing any horizontal spillover to EB3I. As far as any vertical spillover is concerned - it is not happening any way because of EB2IC - and even if some did reach EB3 some time in future, they will first go to EB3ROW before reaching EB3IC because of the 7% rule.

One factor to mull over: EB3-ROW is soon going to face a demand cliff and it will happen this FY (most likely June/July?). This means that EB3-I is poised to get thousands of spillover visas that should drastically eliminate porting for FY 2014. If EB1 demand stays low/is managed, and EB2-ROW trends continue, I think in FY 2014, the EB2-I date might cross May 2010.

[imdeng]

Even though EB2I did not move in this VB, I am quite fine with it. EB2ROW getting to C is quite significant - that means horizontal spillovers are now accumulating and will flow to EB2I whenever CO decides to act on it (quarterly spillovers hopefully - then start of the new quarter - the Jan VB).

[qesehmk]

imdeng - you are right. Unfortunately that is true. The only way EB3I can receive any spillover is if EB3ROWMP is current. Even if ROW faces cliff - they will advance the dates. Even if they don't - EB3M has huge CP demand. So most of the spillover if any will go to EB3P.
EB3I is unlikely to get any spillover from anywhere. When, for example, EB3ROW cliff reaches, EB3ROW dates will be moved forward to get new inventory just like they did for EB2IC, preventing any horizontal spillover to EB3I. As far as any vertical spillover is concerned - it is not happening any way because of EB2IC - and even if some did reach EB3 some time in future, they will first go to EB3ROW before reaching EB3IC because of the 7% rule.

[ChampU]

Even though EB2I did not move in this VB, I am quite fine with it. EB2ROW getting to C is quite significant - that means horizontal spillovers are now accumulating and will flow to EB2I whenever CO decides to act on it (quarterly spillovers hopefully - then start of the new quarter - the Jan VB).

As disheartening as it may sound, I doubt CO will go for QSP, as early as Jan. With his plate full with EB2-IC and with lessons learnt last year, I believe CO will move dates conservatively, until he is absolutely sure he doesn't have to put a COD on EB2-ROW or EB1. I think that point of comfort would come around May/June.

[imdeng]

On the other hand - it is a possibility that the EB3M/P/ROW density is not very high post 07/07. So a path to EB3ROW being current some time in future is possible. I believe the ratio of EB3 to EB2 has declined after 07/07 and the transient factors that drove up the EB3 demand (like nurses from P, the big nurse shortage is over) have subsided. Plus the recession might have caused some real demand destruction there. We will know how this will turn out as we get visibility on the post-07/07 demand for EB3ROW/M/P in a few months.

Update: BTW - looking at Spec's collection of PERM data for ROW/M/P, the number of PERMs have declined drastically. From 44K for 2007 PDs to just 18K for 2011 PDs. However, both 2007 and 2008 are pretty dense - so it is a couple years at least before the low density will show up.

imdeng - you are right. Unfortunately that is true. The only way EB3I can receive any spillover is if EB3ROWMP is current. Even if ROW faces cliff - they will advance the dates. Even if they don't - EB3M has huge CP demand. So most of the spillover if any will go to EB3P.

[cool_guy_2004]

Cool_Guy-

You have entered using your AP i.e you have been given an entry as Payrolee. In other words your are in a payrolee status. To answer your qtn:

- You can with no issues continue to work your existing H1b with the same employer
- When your current H1B expires and assuming that you didn't get your GC and you would like to continue on H1B, you can apply for extension using the current H1b and if the extension is approved you automatically get back to H1B from payrolee
- You can also file for a transfer using the current H1B, when the transfer is done you again automatically move to H1B status from payrolee
- If at all you decide to continue on EAD (which i wud not suggest since you have H1 for few more months), then you have to file a new I-9 with your employer and have to be proactive in getting your EAD/AP extensions

It is now upto you if you would like to continue on H1B or start using the EAD. Choice uis yours.

Thanks Sandeep.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,
It seems like CO is moving dates based on 250 per month. But even then, we should have seen dates still move (maybe by few months). Do we still have 250 more cases before Sep 2004 (after 250 that got or will be approved in Oct). Looks like porting is killing all the monthly quota.

Some people have pointed out that the demand data did reduce by 250 however the dates did not move. The only explanation is that the agencies still feel that 250 porting cases can still come up before Sep 2004 with new porting related i140's being approved and interfiling. So essentially its a case of a moving target with the demand data reduction not being able to truly represent the situation. Unfortunately this will keep going on for a few months till the May - Jul. This actually is the default mode of operation (Very Conservative Movement) what we saw last year was an exception as an inventory had to be created. The big silver lining of this bulletin is that EB2 ROW is now current. Porting has not really increased however last year probably only 50% porting cases saw approval due to dates going to unavailable.

[justvisiting]

The Demand Data provide a good hint of how much porting is going on:

EB3I fell by 425. EB-3I before 2003 dropped by 175 - if you assume all of these were "charged" to EB3, then the difference 425-175 equals 250.

Therefore there is a minimum of 250 porting cases being approved for EB3 I

One caveat: EB3 ROW dropped by 1275 before 2007, but only by 1200 before 2012. This means applicants may be adding dependents (such as follow to join) or 2007 cases are being preapproved even at this late date. The same may be happening on EB3 I, which would "mask" the true size of porting.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Q/ Spec/ Gurus ,

Exactly what month or range of months do we predict EB2-India to reach or cross Dec 07

[bvsamrat]

My opinion is that if December 2007- when it comes will take the dates up to atleast mid 2008 at one shot. MY guess is January/February 2013


Q/ Spec/ Gurus ,

Exactly what month or range of months do we predict EB2-India to reach or cross Dec 07

[Eb2_Dec07]

Are we expecting Quarterly Spill beginning second quarter ?


My opinion is that if December 2007- when it comes will take the dates up to atleast mid 2008 at one shot. MY guess is January/February 2013

[imdeng]

Sportsfan - none of the EB3 dates have even reached 2007 yet, let alone 07/07. CO has months to plan and get additional inventory for EB3. While they don't seem much efficient up there, I doubt they will mess up something this predictable and well in advance. I think something like 4 months before they estimate to reach the demand cliff, they will extend PD beyond 07/07 and get enough inventory to to carry forward as usual. They might even push the dates far beyond 07/07 (say 2009, 2010) so that they get enough inventory to last a couple years.

Update: Based on current inventory and burn rate of the inventory ROW (11.4K) should be the first to show movement along with C (1.4K) and M (1.2K). I and P have enough demand. Hmm... they do not have much time. Assuming a 4-6 months processing time for USCIS and a 250/month burn rate for countries and 2K/month burn rate for ROW, they need to extend PDs beyond 07/07 and accumulate inventory in next few VBs. If they fail to extend PDs in next 3 months then yes, they may reach a situation where its Sept and they need to use all the visas - but they don't have enough documentarily qualified ROW/C/M applicants. If that happens then I can see a horizontal spillover to EB3I (it could go to EB3P as well - but if its not going to ROW then it will go to I since P and I both are over the 7% limit and I has older PDs). Am I correct in assuming that P has reached the 7% limit - I do not recall top of the mind right now.

It's a timing issue.

EB2-I faced demand cliff early in FY 2012. The dates were advanced rapidly, but the visas allocated in Q1 were still for clearing the previous backlog. Only in Q2, around February or so, were they allocating new visas. It still takes them 2 to 3 months to pick even the low hanging fruits.

I think EB3-ROW will face a demand cliff around June/July of 2013. Even if dates are advanced rapidly, there still will not be enough visas to give in the months of July to September (unless I am missing the EB3-P demand, and if the EB3-P can indeed go beyond the 2800 visas). EB3-I should receive some spillover if the demand cliff happens for EB3-ROW. And it will be very interesting to see how they move the EB3-ROW dates then - especially after they had some experiences with EB2-I. If the date movement is not aggressive enough, EB3-I will continue getting spillover.

Please shred this theory to pieces Gurus if it's a wishful fantasy.

[imdeng]

Shouldn't the 485 Inventory Report be out by now? Last year's report was as of Oct 1st.

[imdeng]

So I was reading Ron's Forum and I came across the following:

For once, the demand data is a more valuable predictor. Given the historic number of visas given to Indian EB2 applicants and the number of pending cases, I think that movement deep into 2009 this fiscal year should not be a problem.

Obviously, people were skeptical and asked the to explain - and his explanation is something worth reading:

Looking at historic data, the pre-2009 demand for India EB2 is about 80% of what Indian applicants get annually. Because of the age of those cases, I suspect that perhaps as many at 15 to 20 per cent of them are no longer active and will not receive visas. There will be new "upgrade" cases coming on line as priority dates advance, but keep in mind that it takes the USCIS a while to close out these types of cases. If someone has a pending I-485, the case can be closed quickly if the applicant knows what to do (which most don't) and acts promptly. For new I-485 cases that will be filed in response to cutoff dates moving forward, count on those taking between six and twelve months to get approved. Since cutoff date movement is controlled in large part by actual visa issuances (demand), I don't see these cases really having any effect on FY2013 cutoff date movement.

It is amazing that for someone who is in the industry and has a widely read forum, he is so much off base. No consideration of the carryover EB2ROW and porting demand from last year, no discussion of increased demand from EB1 - just a blanket assertion with an arbitrary date. His explanation makes no sense and there is no way we are touching "deep 2009" in FY2012.

Link: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18349

[abcx13]

@Ron's post - why would someone show up in demand data (i.e. file an I485) if they don't have an active offer?

[bvsamrat]

If that is the case, the porting will reduce and hence the Eb2_I PD will move fast?

Glad that you see the same possibility. The ROW demand has reduced and the time is running out for them to extend the PD. I see no indication that the PD will go beyond 07/07 any time soon. If the demand cliff is reach around June/July and the PD is still hovering at 07/07, then a lot of folks in EB3-I are going to be happy.

[sreddy]

So I was reading Ron's Forum and I came across the following:
Obviously, people were skeptical and asked the to explain - and his explanation is something worth reading:
It is amazing that for someone who is in the industry and has a widely read forum, he is so much off base. No consideration of the carryover EB2ROW and porting demand from last year, no discussion of increased demand from EB1 - just a blanket assertion with an arbitrary date. His explanation makes no sense and there is no way we are touching "deep 2009" in FY2012.
Link: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18349

I think 2012 EB1 numbers are not indicative of the EB1 demand because of the delay in 140 approvals in 2011, and they all applied for 485 in 2012. I still think 2013 quota should see EB2I moving at least to May/June 2008, if not more (We know good number of people upto March 2008 already got greened). But i agree with you, going deep into 2009 is un-imaginable at this point.

[gc_soon]

I think 2012 EB1 numbers are not indicative of the EB1 demand because of the delays in 140 approvals in 2011, and they all applied for 485 in 2012. I still think 2013 quota should see EB2I moving at least to May/June 2008, if not more (We know good number of people upto March 2008 already got greened). But i agree with you, going deep into 2009 is un-imaginable at this point.

Any particular reasons for delays of 140 approvals in 2011 as an one off case?

[sreddy]

Any particular reasons for delays of 140 approvals in 2011 as an one off case?

Some thing internal i guess, and yes it is one off case. That's the reason 2011 saw good spillover, but effected 2012. Well 2012 had other things as well, EB1 numbers from 2011 coming into 2012 was one of them.

[bvsamrat]

In what way this will help? The demand figures as we know today is what it is considering and subtracting who got GCs. Otherwise the numbers would have been more?.Isn't it?


(We know good number of people upto March 2008 already got greened). .

[imdeng]

This is the conspiracy-theory-guy in my talking, but perhaps CO/DHS/USCIS realize the absurdness of EB3I PDs in 2002s (10+ year wait). If they let the status-quo go on and not get new inventory for EB3ROW/C/M this FY- then say 15K visas land into the lap of EB3I in Sept. That would take EB3I PD up by about 2.5 years to a 2004 number (8+ year wait) - which would still be infuriating but at least understandable given that EB2I has a 5+ year wait.

Of course, as we reach closer to the possibility, EB3ROW/C/M folks will raise enough stink (and rightfully so from their point of view) that this will never happen. I guess porting is the only option left for EB3I.


I do not think there will be an immediate effect. Most porting cases take several months to close, so the porting GCs that will be issued 4 to 6 months from now have been filed already.

However, going forward, there will certainly be less porting intensity if the above happened. I remember looking at the demand data and determining porting was intense in the years 2005 and 2006. The demand from these 2 years has reduced substantially already. These years are kind of any a grey zone...they have been in the system for a long time (hence they have the experience and financial means to undertake porting endeavors such as switching employers, getting an advanced degree etc.), but they are nowhere close to getting the GCs. If the PD was in 2004, porting intent will be much less for those folks.

The benefit to EB2-I will be indirect. But the overall gloom and doom would reduce a lot. If the EB3-I date were to make a quantum jump, I think it would help everyone. I really hope the cards fall this way and in absence of EB3-ROW/M demand, EB3-I gets at least 5-6K spillover.

[vizcard]

Any particular reasons for delays of 140 approvals in 2011 as an one off case?


Some thing internal i guess, and yes it is one off case. That's the reason 2011 saw good spillover, but effected 2012. Well 2012 had other things as well, EB1 numbers from 2011 coming into 2012 is one of them.

There was the Karzarian memo which caused a lot of confusion and delays for EB1. All that spilt over into 2012. Hopefully that corrects itself.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Savvy?

Deppfan33?

[imdeng]

Folks - I have shifted all the posts regarding EB3 to EB2 porting and whether it is right or not in its own thread - so that we can keep the main thread clean and on focus.

You can continue the discussion here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?1338-Porting-Discussion-For-and-Against

Thanks.

[sbhagwat2000]

Gurus - I read some data about porting and have been troubled after that. I read somewhere that CO had said that only in the month of February 2012 USCIS processed 336 applications with PD of 2005. If this is true then porting is exploding right? All these case have to be interfiling cases correct? that were tackled by USCIS in Feb. If porting is so huge then how would dates ever move? Another concern is I looked at May 2012 485 inventory and I see that EB1 usage is double than last year. So what does that mean for SOFAD? The situation looks almost hopeless to me. BTW my PD is EB2 Feb 2005 and with all this I am reading I am no hopeful about my own date. Please someone give me some hope

[bvsamrat]

2005 FEB appears too old as quite a few up to 2007 were cleared early this year, unless you have ported recently or your case was held in audits etc.

But my opinion is that EB2-ROW might contribute to a very good spill over as usual and my guess in minimum 10,000 which will easliy clear dates upto early 2008. But not sure if will happen in December/January 2013 with quarterly spill over and year end spill over.

Only Gurus can explain.


Gurus - I read some data about porting and have been troubled after that. I read somewhere that CO had said that only in the month of February 2012 USCIS processed 336 applications with PD of 2005. If this is true then porting is exploding right? All these case have to be interfiling cases correct? that were tackled by USCIS in Feb. If porting is so huge then how would dates ever move? Another concern is I looked at May 2012 485 inventory and I see that EB1 usage is double than last year. So what does that mean for SOFAD? The situation looks almost hopeless to me. BTW my PD is EB2 Feb 2005 and with all this I am reading I am no hopeful about my own date. Please someone give me some hope

[imdeng]

Do you have a link to share about the CO's statement. He usually never gets this specific about numbers.

Gurus - I read some data about porting and have been troubled after that. I read somewhere that CO had said that only in the month of February 2012 USCIS processed 336 applications with PD of 2005. If this is true then porting is exploding right? All these case have to be interfiling cases correct? that were tackled by USCIS in Feb. If porting is so huge then how would dates ever move? Another concern is I looked at May 2012 485 inventory and I see that EB1 usage is double than last year. So what does that mean for SOFAD? The situation looks almost hopeless to me. BTW my PD is EB2 Feb 2005 and with all this I am reading I am no hopeful about my own date. Please someone give me some hope

[sbhagwat2000]

I don't get it. Aren't you a porter yourself? Many people like you are porting - so why are you worried about porting per se? I would be thankful for the porting option if I were in your shoes.

Now as for your case - your PD will most likely be current in December. If not, within a couple of months. I would not really worry about the PD right now. Even if many people in 2005 ported, your PD is early in the year, so I don't see why you should not be current by Dec/Jan. Spillover for your own specific case is immaterial.

Also, the inventory doesn't paint the complete picture. There could be many pending cases in the inventory at a given juncture. It's just a snapshot. The queue processes certain number of cases and the rate of approvals is what's important and that's exactly what the USCIS never reveals. Yes, the EB1 usage was high last year. We don't know what it will be this year. My gut feeling is that EB1 will yield some spillover - if lucky, it could go into 5 digits. EB2-ROW will also yield a healthy spillover despite the backlog clearance. Everything considered, I see the EB2-I dates in the later half of 2008 by the end of this FY.

I am a porter and I am happy abt it and think that anyone who gets a chance should do it. I am just trying to make sense of this whole thing where EB2I has gone back to 2004 as unfortuanately due to a personal situation it has impacted me negatively.

[abcx13]

I am a porter and I am happy abt itDuh, of course!

[Spectator]

Do you have a link to share about the CO's statement. He usually never gets this specific about numbers.imdeng,

This may be the source of the information. (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17533&p=74215#post74215)

It was posted in last year's thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2012&p=28223#post28223) as well.

[imdeng]

Thanks Spec.

imdeng,

This may be the source of the information. (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17533&p=74215#post74215)

It was posted in last year's thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2012&p=28223#post28223) as well.

[sbhagwat2000]

imdeng,

This may be the source of the information. (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17533&p=74215#post74215)

It was posted in last year's thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2012&p=28223#post28223) as well.
So is that not concerning?363 applications in a month

[chewbaca]

Friends,
I had asked this question a couple of months ago but seems like the expectations/estimates have changed since then. Could you please once again have a go at my question?

My EB2 PD is Jan 10 2008, any estimate/idea on when this could get current.

thanks again.

[sbhagwat2000]

Buckle up Dorothy, because it's gonna be a wild ride! OK, fun aside, you are fine. In all likelihood, you should be current with a couple of months, so hang in tight. The Gurus have already clarified that the dates are in 2004 because they are only allocating 233 cases to EB2-I each month, and it's going to continue at least until March. Even then, I think we should continue seeing 3 to 4 month advances each VB that would cover the pending porting cases during that period. I think your date should be current by Dec/Jan so you should plan accordingly.

Hey thanks for the reply. Lets see how it turns out. I had a question abt the interfiling cases from June - October. Would those be included in the DD that they released for the October/nov bulletins or they would be added now? So these are the cases where the dates were U, people have sent interfiling letters and those letters are not processed by USCIS as dates were U.

[kd2008]

Can Spec, Teddy and other please comment on the following?

What would be the EB3-ROW-M-P-C demand next summer should the floodgates open for them and the dates move forward?

total PERMS (rough eye-ball calculations)

2007 post -aug: 20K
2008 : 38K
2009 : 23K
2010 : 19K
2011 : 19K
2012 : 24K (estimated)

Total : 143K

Assuming 40% of it is EB3, then 0.4*143K = 57.2K
Assuming 2.25 applicants for each PERM, 2.25*57.2K = 128.7K

Wow! That is a lot of EB3 applicants waiting. If few of these folks decide to port EB2-ROW-M-P can get backlogged with a snap of fingers! Hmmm ..something to think about. I didn't mean to depress EB2IC folks. But they should be :-)

[imdeng]

I don't think EB3ROWMP folks feel the need to port as acutely as EB3I - just because of the difference in the amount of waiting involved. You need 5 years experience (ball park) for porting to EB2 and the waiting for EB3 is 6 years - so might as well wait for another year and get the GC in EB3ROWMP.



Assuming 2.25 applicants for each PERM, 2.25*57.2K = 128.7K

Wow! That is a lot of EB3 applicants waiting. If few of these folks decide to port EB2-ROW-M-P can get backlogged with a snap of fingers! Hmmm ..something to think about. I didn't mean to depress EB2IC folks. But they should be :-)

[sbhagwat2000]

I don't get it. Aren't you a porter yourself? Many people like you are porting - so why are you worried about porting per se? I would be thankful for the porting option if I were in your shoes.

Now as for your case - your PD will most likely be current in December. If not, within a couple of months. I would not really worry about the PD right now. Even if many people in 2005 ported, your PD is early in the year, so I don't see why you should not be current by Dec/Jan. Spillover for your own specific case is immaterial.

Also, the inventory doesn't paint the complete picture. There could be many pending cases in the inventory at a given juncture. It's just a snapshot. The queue processes certain number of cases and the rate of approvals is what's important and that's exactly what the USCIS never reveals. Yes, the EB1 usage was high last year. We don't know what it will be this year. My gut feeling is that EB1 will yield some spillover - if lucky, it could go into 5 digits. EB2-ROW will also yield a healthy spillover despite the backlog clearance. Everything considered, I see the EB2-I dates in the later half of 2008 by the end of this FY.

Spillover to my date and case may not be immaterial as remember from June - October dates were U. We dont know the number of interfiling letters sent. All these will now be reflected in the DD and processed. If that number is huge we will need spillover to move dates even into 2005.

[ksur23]

What do you guys think about Ron's prediction below about eb2I going in to 2009 this fiscal year?


"All I know is what I hear from the experts in the Visa Office. They say that cutoff date movement for India EB2 is going to be slow during the first fiscal quarter of the year (October - December). After that it should pick up and move into 2009."

[Spectator]

What do you guys think about Ron's prediction below about eb2I going in to 2009 this fiscal year?


"All I know is what I hear from the experts in the Visa Office. They say that cutoff date movement for India EB2 is going to be slow during the first fiscal quarter of the year (October - December). After that it should pick up and move into 2009."Let's put some figures to that and you can decide.

According to the Demand Data, just to reach the end of 2008 requires about 25.7k approvals for EB2-IC. With an allowance for porting, that is probably slightly over 30k.

That means that about 25k spare visas would need to be available from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2-WW.

I'll leave it to you to decide whether that is possible or not.

[qesehmk]

To add to what Spec said here - there have been years when the SOFAD has been 5K and there have been years when it was 40K or even more. So will it be in 2013 closer to 40K or 5K? Depending on the answers the dates could move between Dec 2007 and Jun 2009. My own guess is it will be around Sep 2008.


Let's put some figures to that and you can decide.

According to the Demand Data, just to reach the end of 2008 requires about 25.7k approvals for EB2-IC. With an allowance for porting, that is probably slightly over 30k.

That means that about 25k spare visas would need to be available from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2-WW.

I'll leave it to you to decide whether that is possible or not.

[Spectator]

To add to what Spec said here - there have been years when the SOFAD has been 5K and there have been years when it was 40K or even more. So will it be in 2013 closer to 40K or 5K? Depending on the answers the dates could move between Dec 2007 and Jun 2009. My own guess is it will be around Sep 2008.The historical Spillover and SOFAD figures can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards).

Spillover has varied between a low of 7.5k (FY2009) and a high of 26.6k (FY2011).

The corresponding SOFAD figures are 13.2k and 32.3k respectively.

The figure for FY2011 is really artificially high due to the extremely low EB1 approvals in FY2011.

The FY2012 figure is not yet available, but is unlikely to be as high as FY2011 and will be inflated by numbers (at least 6k) that were over-allocated at the expense of EB2-WW, causing that group to retrogress.

In FY2013, it is likely that there will be an element of "pay back" of the over-allocated visas, causing a lower number for spillover to EB2-IC.

A Cut Off Date of September 2008 for EB2-IC would require about 25k SOFAD (including Porting).

Currently, I think the final Cut Off Date for FY2013 is likely to be at the lower end of your range, although it is really too early to say.

On Porting to date, the EB2-I demand had already reduced by 250 in the 9 days before the November Demand Data was published.

Based on that, the current figure for the month appears to be slightly over 600. This may have influenced CO's decision to keep the Cut Off Date at 01SEP04 for EB2-I in the November VB.

[ksur23]

The historical Spillover and SOFAD figures can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards).

Spillover has varied between a low of 7.5k (FY2009) and a high of 26.6k (FY2011).

The corresponding SOFAD figures are 13.2k and 32.3k respectively.

The figure for FY2011 is really artificially high due to the extremely low EB1 approvals in FY2011.

The FY2012 figure is not yet available, but is unlikely to be as high as FY2011 and will be inflated by numbers (at least 6k) that were over-allocated at the expense of EB2-WW, causing that group to retrogress.

In FY2013, it is likely that there will be an element of "pay back" of the over-allocated visas, causing a lower number for spillover to EB2-IC.

A Cut Off Date of September 2008 for EB2-IC would require about 25k SOFAD (including Porting).

Currently, I think the final Cut Off Date for FY2013 is likely to be at the lower end of your range, although it is really too early to say.

On Porting to date, the EB2-I demand had already reduced by 250 in the 9 days before the November Demand Data was published.

Based on that, the current figure for the month appears to be slightly over 600. This may have influenced CO's decision to keep the Cut Off Date at 01SEP04 for EB2-I in the November VB.

From what you and Q are saying and extrapolating EB2I PD the beginning of 2009 PDs would fall in 2nd quarter of 2014? This is like the consensus forecast i guess, taking the average of the EPS (in this case PD) forecasts of various important equity analysts (in this case PD analysts!

[qesehmk]

Spec thanks. I used 2008 numbers and mistakenly assumed ROW then at 30K max - which gave 40K SOFAD. However forgot that in 2008 tons of ROW backlog was cleared as opposed to providing SOFAD to EB2IC.

So if we go by 32K as the high number and 7K as low then 20K is the mean which should approximately forward dates around Aug-2008. In reality we will know better when we see the latest 485 inventory.


The historical Spillover and SOFAD figures can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards).

Spillover has varied between a low of 7.5k (FY2009) and a high of 26.6k (FY2011).

The corresponding SOFAD figures are 13.2k and 32.3k respectively.

The figure for FY2011 is really artificially high due to the extremely low EB1 approvals in FY2011.

The FY2012 figure is not yet available, but is unlikely to be as high as FY2011 and will be inflated by numbers (at least 6k) that were over-allocated at the expense of EB2-WW, causing that group to retrogress.

In FY2013, it is likely that there will be an element of "pay back" of the over-allocated visas, causing a lower number for spillover to EB2-IC.

A Cut Off Date of September 2008 for EB2-IC would require about 25k SOFAD (including Porting).

Currently, I think the final Cut Off Date for FY2013 is likely to be at the lower end of your range, although it is really too early to say.

On Porting to date, the EB2-I demand had already reduced by 250 in the 9 days before the November Demand Data was published.

Based on that, the current figure for the month appears to be slightly over 600. This may have influenced CO's decision to keep the Cut Off Date at 01SEP04 for EB2-I in the November VB.

[qesehmk]

EB2_Dec07 - sorry I never responded to this.

I think this should be achievable in a couple of months (if spillover starts immediately - less likely) and worst case is Jun 2013 since the backlog upto Dec 2007 is more than EB2I quota.

The reason there is so much difference in two dates is simply because Visa office has never been consistent in execution of its policies (if any). If anything they are consistent about being unpredictable unfortunately.


Q/ Spec/ Gurus ,

Exactly what month or range of months do we predict EB2-India to reach or cross Dec 07

[Spectator]

Spec thanks. I used 2008 numbers and mistakenly assumed ROW then at 30K max - which gave 40K SOFAD. However forgot that in 2008 tons of ROW backlog was cleared as opposed to providing SOFAD to EB2IC.

So if we go by 32K as the high number and 7K as low then 20K is the mean which should approximately forward dates around Aug-2008. In reality we will know better when we see the latest 485 inventory.Q,

Via a different calculation, I would agree that underlying SOFAD for EB2-IC has averaged 19-20k since spillover changed. Each year, there has been a factor that has altered the actual figure. Possibly there will be another one in FY2013.

In my calculations, 20k would leave EB2-I at May-June 2008, depending on how much Porting is assumed.

If there is a payback of, say, 6k visas over-allocated in FY2012, then the figure for FY2013 would drop to 13-14k. That would pull the dates back to the end of 2007 for EB2-I.

Of course, that may not happen, but EB5 numbers are also likely to increase.

EB2-WW is a strange beast! Despite lowering PERM approvals, the approval numbers have held up. In FY2011 they actually exceeded their allocation and appeared on course for a figure around 30k in FY2012 before they were retrogressed. At the same time, the backlog numbers in the USCIS Inventory did not reduce, That tends to say that backlog reduction is not the cause. There seems to be something about EB2-WW that we (well at least me) don't fully understand. NIW, Schedule A and the WW EB2/EB3 split are some unknowns that immediately come to mind.

For me, it is EB2-WW that holds the key for SOFAD in FY2013, not EB1.

I agree that the new Inventory may be useful, but it has never been great for understanding Categories/Countries that are Current.

I do hope CO releases the FY2012 Visa Statistics in January rather than August. I think there is a quite wide variation in what people think happened last year and I would like to see the actual figures. Only then can I really reset my own thinking and forecasts.

[kd2008]

Q,

Via a different calculation, I would agree that underlying SOFAD for EB2-IC has averaged 19-20k since spillover changed. Each year, there has been a factor that has altered the actual figure. Possibly there will be another one in FY2013.

In my calculations, 20k would leave EB2-I at May-June 2008, depending on how much Porting is assumed.

If there is a payback of, say, 6k visas over-allocated in FY2012, then the figure for FY2013 would drop to 13-14k. That would pull the dates back to the end of 2007 for EB2-I.

Of course, that may not happen, but EB5 numbers are also likely to increase.

EB2-WW is a strange beast! Despite lowering PERM approvals, the approval numbers have held up. In FY2011 they actually exceeded their allocation and appeared on course for a figure around 30k in FY2012 before they were retrogressed. At the same time, the backlog numbers in the USCIS Inventory did not reduce, That tends to say that backlog reduction is not the cause. There seems to be something about EB2-WW that we (well at least me) don't fully understand. NIW, Schedule A and the WW EB2/EB3 split are some unknowns that immediately come to mind.

For me, it is EB2-WW that holds the key for SOFAD in FY2013, not EB1.

I agree that the new Inventory may be useful, but it has never been great for understanding Categories/Countries that are Current.

I do hope CO releases the FY2012 Visa Statistics in January rather than August. I think there is a quite wide variation in what people think happened last year and I would like to see the actual figures. Only then can I really reset my own thinking and forecasts.

Spec, may be EB2-WW has a certain lumpiness in approvals - either due to PERM approvals slowing down/backlog or I-485 approvals slowing down. So say, June-Dec period sees high rate of EB2-WW approvals ...they end up showing as a slightly high demand in two fiscal years that straddle that period. Just a theory. May be we can back test this theory from limited trackitt data.

[Spectator]

Spec, may be EB2-WW has a certain lumpiness in approvals - either due to PERM approvals slowing down/backlog or I-485 approvals slowing down. So say, June-Dec period sees high rate of EB2-WW approvals ...they end up showing as a slightly high demand in two fiscal years that straddle that period. Just a theory. May be we can back test this theory from limited trackitt data.kd,

I've tried to understand it several times without success. Any insight would be gratefully received.

Over time, the numbers still remain surprisingly high. EB2-WW = ROW, M & P

FY2008 - 48,338 (probably high due to July 2007 effect??)
FY2009 - 32,865
FY2010 - 27,406
FY2011 - 34,550

Ignoring FY2008, that still is an average of 31.6k per year with no particular trend.

I have to suspect that large parts of ROW have abandoned EB3 as a route to residency in recent years and that the EB2/EB3 split may be even higher than for EB2-I. China, Mexico and Philippines are different for various reasons IMO.

If so, that could be good news for EB3 in the future (perhaps post PD2008), but approvals that late are likely still several years away, even though the Cut Off Dates might advance much sooner.

When that happens, for the first time, we may be able to see the reality, depending how far they are advanced.

[GhostWriter]

Spec, any thoughts on 2012 PERM numbers for EB-WW.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013&p=30616#post30616

Does 22K PERM figure for EB-WW seem reasonable. Also do you assume 80% approval rate for I-140s for the overall ratio. It could be higher than that, only 15% PERMs were denied or withdrawn. So denial rate at I-140 stage should be even lower.

How many I-485s would you say 22K EB-WW PERMs can generate for EB2-WW ?


kd,


Over time, the numbers still remain surprisingly high. EB2-WW = ROW, M & P

FY2008 - 48,338 (probably high due to July 2007 effect??)
FY2009 - 32,865
FY2010 - 27,406
FY2011 - 34,550

Ignoring FY2008, that still is an average of 31.6k per year with no particular trend.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I just saw this update from the Capital Immigration Law Group newsletter.

Heads Up: Bleak picture painted for EB2-I

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/?utm_source=Capitol+Immigration+Law+Group+Newslett er&utm_campaign=9b498a483e-Weekly_Newsletter_Oct_25_2012&utm_medium=email

[Spectator]

I just saw this update from the Capital Immigration Law Group newsletter.

Heads Up: Bleak picture painted for EB2-I

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/?utm_source=Capitol+Immigration+Law+Group+Newslett er&utm_campaign=9b498a483e-Weekly_Newsletter_Oct_25_2012&utm_medium=emailIsItWorthTheTrouble,

Thanks for bringing this to the forum.

Here is the part dealing with EB2-I for FY2013.


For EB-2 India Mr. Oppenheim indicated that very little or no movement is expected over the next months.

The reason is simply the huge demand of EB-2 cases and the very small number of visa numbers available in this category.

The high demand appears to be caused by the high number of I-485 cases filed by EB-2 applicants (and their family members) earlier this year and also the very high number of EB-3 India applicants who are now porting into EB-2 India.

Mr. Oppenheim suggested almost no movement in EB-2 India with an absolutely best case scenario of having a cutoff date of late 2007 or early 2008 by the end of the fiscal year.

I suggest people read the whole article - it is very interesting.

I noted that he did not mention EB3-Philippines or EB4.

Other "highlights":


EB-1. This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year, not unlike what happened during the summer of 2012.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. Unlike last year, where these two categories were anticipated to move forward dramatically, unfortunately, EB-2 for China and India are expected to move very slowly. Specifically, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects EB-2 China to move forward by approximately 2 weeks in every month’s visa bulletin with a possible target of cutoff date somewhere in the second half of 2008 by the end of the fiscal year (September 30, 2013).

EB-5. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is very strong — a 120% increase compared to last year, with 80% of the allocated numbers going to Chinese nationals. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that a cutoff date (the first for EB-5) is possible (even highly likely) towards later in the fiscal year. As an example, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that 20% of the annual numbers for EB-5 have been used in the first two months of the fiscal year – October and November.

[abcx13]

IsItWorthTheTrouble,

Thanks for bringing this to the forum.

Here is the part dealing with EB2-I for FY2013.



I suggest people read the whole article - it is very interesting.

I noted that he did not mention EB3-Philippines or EB4.

Other "highlights":

I just received the newsletter and was coming here to post the snippets. While interesting, it basically says the EB2I situation is completely f***ed. Apologies for the language - but when EB2 doesn't advance at all for a whole year thanks to porting, that's the only word that fits. They need to do something about restricting porting and becoming stricter about educational evals. Counting dependents doesn't help either.

[sbhagwat2000]

I just received the newsletter and was coming here to post the snippets. While interesting, it basically says the EB2I situation is completely f***ed. Apologies for the language - but when EB2 doesn't advance at all for a whole year thanks to porting, that's the only word that fits. They need to do something about restricting porting and becoming stricter about educational evals. Counting dependents doesn't help either.

Since hes talking about a cutoff for EB 2 WW that means theres not going to be any spillover right? So hes correct in saying that EB 2 I will not move even by a single day throughout the year. Whats going to happen is this I think - Just like Fy 2011 - the date will not move until July 2013. If at that time we get spillover then the dates will move into 2007 as hes saying.

[Spectator]

Spec, any thoughts on 2012 PERM numbers for EB-WW.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013&p=30616#post30616

Does 22K PERM figure for EB-WW seem reasonable. Also do you assume 80% approval rate for I-140s for the overall ratio. It could be higher than that, only 15% PERMs were denied or withdrawn. So denial rate at I-140 stage should be even lower.

How many I-485s would you say 22K EB-WW PERMs can generate for EB2-WW ?GhostWriter,

As I have already said, I find it quite difficult to gauge EB2-WW demand from the available information.

I would suggest that the TR might be >1.

Since EB2-WW is generally Current, the Demand Destruction factor is going to be a lot lower than for Countries that are retrogressed.

[abcx13]

Since hes talking about a cutoff for EB 2 WW that means theres not going to be any spillover right? So hes correct in saying that EB 2 I will not move even by a single day throughout the year. Whats going to happen is this I think - Just like Fy 2011 - the date will not move until July 2013. If at that time we get spillover then the dates will move into 2007 as hes saying.

Yeah, but the long term shift is what scares me - EB2I is very quickly morphing into EB3I, exactly as I had feared. This is just proof of that. With ROW demand where it is and the long backlog of EB3I, non-porting-EB2I is barely going to have any allocation left over.

[abcx13]

Even if there is absolutely zero porting, the current backlog of EB2-I will take a decade to clean without any spillovers.

Don't disagree and if ROW demand rises, this may well be the case - but I doubt it'll take a year. But my point was that EB2-I is NOT EVEN MOVING thanks to porting. And I think CO still doesn't know what the exact porting numbers are...I don't know why one of the attorneys hasn't asked what % of EB2I has gone to porting in the past x months/years.

[Spectator]

I think CO still doesn't know what the exact porting numbers are...I don't know why one of the attorneys hasn't asked what % of EB2I has gone to porting in the past x months/years.He doesn't. The information is unknown.

CO has said previously that neither USCIS or DOS keep track of those numbers. The best he can do is guesstimate, which he did in a previous communication. His "guesstimate" was so high that it is difficult to take it entirely seriously. He really doesn't know.

[sandeep11]

Just found this on cilawgroup:

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/

[sbhagwat2000]

One thing to note is in the article it says these are short term predictions. So I think these may change next year and EB2 I could move. Looking at the demand data of 1100 ( and that also includes most of the interfilings from may to oct) its difficult to see what CO is saying. also the 1100 is before 2006 so all of that is not before 2004 sept. I still think EB2 I will move after 4-6 mos

[harapatta2012]

sandeep11
Thanks, this was posted sometime ago.

All,

I do not understand why EB3-EB2 porting especially for EB3I-EB2I is being just a gamechanger now. I am not denying that as EB3I with PD in 2004-2006 gets more experience, they would port and therefore porting would GRADUALLY increase, which is fine.
What is not understood is : Is there EXPONENTIAL increase in porting that we are worried here?


Just found this on cilawgroup:

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/

[geevikram]

Guys,
I read the report from CO and he has not provided any new information. We all know that he is going to allocate 200 odd visas to EB2I until later next year. We also know that porting is high. We also know that EB2WW and EB5 usage has increased. The only other factor is, we don't know how the past trend will hold up. A lot depends on economy. Even if economy sneezes a bit (which I don't want), we will have a lot less filings in EB2 WW and porting will reduce leading to more spillover. There are just so many variables that without latest inventory and accurate future usage, we can only guess. Since CO does not know future trends, he is guessing too.

Remember, he is the same person who told us that he will try to bring the dates forward to 2010 by this time. It hasn't happened. There is no cause for worry. I do believe we will get a healthy spillover as economy is not chumming along for any non-tech related field (source of most EB2-ROW visas) and when economy nose dives EB1 and EB5 filings take a hit too. On the other hand, it is great cause of worry as it affects many of our jobs directly. Cross your fingers and hold on to your job. You may just get lucky.

[abcx13]

EB2-I needs an SOFAD of at least 21K (18+3 ballpark) to just stay on the treadmill. That's what I have learned from this forum. If you exclude porting, you would still need 18K.

Hence, the SOFAD required to stay in the game comprises of a large number, and porting makes up only 14% of that number. We need the other 86%. If porting was absent, but the SOFAD was absent too, life in EB2-I will suck. Is it really comforting if the PD was moving 1 week every month versus if it was frozen?

Let's not blame the porters. I keep thinking of the same 6 letters that is the only hope for everyone now - HR3012.

Based on CO comments, I think this forum might be severely underestimating porting.

[Spectator]

Based on CO comments, I think this forum might be severely underestimating porting.I'm not sure many people use that low a figure - I certainly don't.

[abcx13]

I'm not sure many people use that low a figure - I certainly don't.

I thought the estimate here was only 3-5k porting?

[bvsamrat]

Given the number of H1B filing last 2 years, future will bring back normalcy- IMHO
Also with 2004 being PD for EB2 as of now, less incentive for porters as of immediate.

My guess is that Mid 2008 is still possible this FY for Eb2-I

Afterwords who knows---


Based on CO comments, I think this forum might be severely underestimating porting.

[openaccount]

CO comments are based past 6 months usage May-October 2012. He will come with a totally different theory than what he is saying now after 6 months.

We can only wait for Inventory reports from USCIS and keep on guessing.
EB2I movement depends on how much EB2WW is going to consume between Jan-Jun2013.

[vizcard]

This just means you'll get US citizenship (if you want it) a year latter than initially though. I realize that GC lifts the weight off peoples shoulders but having EAD/AP is just as good in the short term. I don't want this to become a discussion about merits or otherwise of GC and EAD but my point is don't freak out if the situation is bleak.

Focus on things that you can control (lobbying?) and on things that are important in life (family, health, etc.)

[pch053]

I just saw this update from the Capital Immigration Law Group newsletter.

Heads Up: Bleak picture painted for EB2-I

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/?utm_source=Capitol+Immigration+Law+Group+Newslett er&utm_campaign=9b498a483e-Weekly_Newsletter_Oct_25_2012&utm_medium=email

I agree it's not the most rosy picture for EB2-I but CO's prediction of EB2-I cut-off dates to hover around late 2007 and early 2008 at the end of FY13 is not that different from Spec's original prediction a month or two back (please correct me, if I am wrong here) where the expected date was supposed to be around end of 2007. As indicated in Spec's later post, nothing is mentioned about EB4 and it can throw surprises either way.

[sbhagwat2000]

I agree it's not the most rosy picture for EB2-I but CO's prediction of EB2-I cut-off dates to hover around late 2007 and early 2008 at the end of FY13 is not that different from Spec's original prediction a month or two back (please correct me, if I am wrong here) where the expected date was supposed to be around end of 2007. As indicated in Spec's later post, nothing is mentioned about EB4 and it can throw surprises either way.

I have a very basic question. CO is saying he may need to have a cutoff on EB2 ROW in summer. Now if thats the case then how and where would EB2I get extra visas from? If theres a cutoff for EB2 ROW then how can extra visas filter down to EB2I

[yank]

From Murthy;

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/25/visa-bulletin-predictions-for-eb2/

[Spectator]

I have a very basic question. CO is saying he may need to have a cutoff on EB2 ROW in summer. Now if thats the case then how and where would EB2I get extra visas from? If theres a cutoff for EB2 ROW then how can extra visas filter down to EB2IThe other alternative is that EB2-WW is given a Cut Off Date towards the end of the year because, as last year, CO has allocated extra visas to EB2-I and total numbers available to EB2 run out.

Otherwise, it means EB1/EB2-WW will use in excess of 74.4k visas.

Leaving EB4 aside, EB5 won't provide any spillover to EB1 according to CO, so EB1 will only have 40k visas. At the same time, CO is saying EB1 will remain Current, so that number is sufficient.

In that case, EB2-WW would have to use at least 34.4k visas to be retrogressed, even if EB1 provided no spillover to EB2. I guess that scenario is just about possible, given the fall through from last year.

In that case, EB2-I would only have 2.8k visas available - a number that wouldn't allow EB2-I to remotely approach even 2007 IMO.

I would still say that is an unlikely scenario.

[veni001]

From Murthy;

http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/25/visa-bulletin-predictions-for-eb2/

Nothing new, same info (prediction) Q has been preaching for some time now.

[makmohan]

Nothing new, same info (prediction) Q has been preaching for some time now.

Friends,

From this murthy post and what gurus have said, looks like there is no chance of my PD (EB2I Apr08) being current again in 2013 fiscal yr.

I'm changing my job to somewhat similar code - SE to BA - 15-1132 to 15-1121). Employer will be extending my H1 (lawyer suggestion, as backup, in case of any AC21 issues)

I don't think it's worth letting big opportunities go just like that. I'll keep the forum posted.

-Mohan

[yank]

Q,

I hesitate to ask this question and I know you had earlier provided related info on this topic. I would like to know realistic chance of getting GC. PD is in Jan 08. Have to take few important carrier decisions and don't want to take a chance through AC21.

Would appreciate your response.

[qesehmk]

Yank - my take is 100% within 1 years. 20% within 6 months (i.e. assuming quarterly spillover kicks in). All the best!
Q,

I hesitate to ask this question and I know you had earlier provided related info on this topic. I would like to know realistic chance of getting GC. PD is in Jan 08. Have to take few important carrier decisions and don't want to take a chance through AC21.

Would appreciate your response.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey All Gurus

My PD - 05/14/2008 - EB2 I
Can i expect my GC in the 1st Qtr of 2014 Fiscal Year?

I have few questions about using EAD , Im still on H1 - calid till Sept 2014

1. If i use EAD, do i have to be employed and run payroll every month?
2. If i Renew EAD in Dec 20th - 120 days before it expires Apr 20th, can i use EAD from Jan 1st ?
3. I am planning to get to EAD from Jan 2013 and be with employer only, until i get GC. Is that an issue?
4. After Getting GC do i have to work for Employer if completed 1 yr on EAD with employer?
5. If my current contract ends 2-3 mons before i get my green card, can i just be without working for those months or take vacation to india and still be able to get GC without paystubs for those 3 mons?

[qesehmk]

I have updated header with general guidance for all interested in GC. Will add analysis later this week.

[Spectator]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/

[vizcard]

Hey All Gurus

My PD - 05/14/2008 - EB2 I
Can i expect my GC in the 1st Qtr of 2014 Fiscal Year?

I have few questions about using EAD , Im still on H1 - calid till Sept 2014

1. If i use EAD, do i have to be employed and run payroll every month?
2. If i Renew EAD in Dec 20th - 120 days before it expires Apr 20th, can i use EAD from Jan 1st ?
3. I am planning to get to EAD from Jan 2013 and be with employer only, until i get GC. Is that an issue?
4. After Getting GC do i have to work for Employer if completed 1 yr on EAD with employer?
5. If my current contract ends 2-3 mons before i get my green card, can i just be without working for those months or take vacation to india and still be able to get GC without paystubs for those 3 mons?

It is possible that you will get your GC in Q1 2014 but that is dependent on how CO wants to manage it.

1. Yes you do. You EAD is not a GC. You run a risk of a RFE and not having requisite docs.
2. You can use your current one and then switch to the new one (btw if you are not changing employers why are u switching from H1 to EAD?)
3. No issue there
4. Your EAD has nothing to do with GC. You can work on your H1 or EAD and quit any time after your GC.
5. See #1.

[sbhagwat2000]

The other alternative is that EB2-WW is given a Cut Off Date towards the end of the year because, as last year, CO has allocated extra visas to EB2-I and total numbers available to EB2 run out.

Otherwise, it means EB1/EB2-WW will use in excess of 74.4k visas.

Leaving EB4 aside, EB5 won't provide any spillover to EB1 according to CO, so EB1 will only have 40k visas. At the same time, CO is saying EB1 will remain Current, so that number is sufficient.

In that case, EB2-WW would have to use at least 34.4k visas to be retrogressed, even if EB1 provided no spillover to EB2. I guess that scenario is just about possible, given the fall through from last year.

In that case, EB2-I would only have 2.8k visas available - a number that wouldn't allow EB2-I to remotely approach even 2007 IMO.

I would still say that is an unlikely scenario.

Spec,

So i looked at the data posted by you earlier about spillovers and I guess in 2010 EB2 ROW used more that 34400. So thats possible again right? Was there something special about that year? Also whats your opinion that if theres no spillover how much would EB2 I move considering your knowledge about porting. My PD is Feb 2005. Any idea from you would be great

[Spectator]

Spec,

So i looked at the data posted by you earlier about spillovers and I guess in 2010 EB2 ROW used more that 34400. So thats possible again right? Was there something special about that year? Also whats your opinion that if theres no spillover how much would EB2 I move considering your knowledge about porting. My PD is Feb 2005. Any idea from you would be greatI'm not aware of anything special about FY2011 off hand. FY2010 was a little below average and the combination of the two was about average.

In FY2012, EB2-WW were retrogressed for 3 months, so in FY2013, potentially EB2-WW approvals can be a normal year's worth plus the additional 6-7k who could not be approved in FY2013 due to retrogression.

For that reason, it may be difficult to get any spillover from EB2-WW this year and in a worse case scenario EB2-WW would actually use any spillover from EB1.

Even in a zero spillover scenario, which at this time I don't actually think will happen, the Cut Off Dates should still move past Feb 2005 at some point. The trick would to get approved while they remain so.

[bvsamrat]

EB2-ROW - another view- As the retroressed Eb2-Row caught up in the frist month itself- clearing the backlog and also meeting the current demand, it is more than likely that they may give a good spill over

What about inventory? - If it drops to less than a good number, is there a chance for making dates progress again >2010 (in FY2014) to get more inventory?


I'm not aware of anything special about FY2011 off hand. FY2010 was a little below average and the combination of the two was about average.

In FY2012, EB2-WW were retrogressed for 3 months, so in FY2013, potentially EB2-WW approvals can be a normal year's worth plus the additional 6-7k who could not be approved in FY2013 due to retrogression.

For that reason, it may be difficult to get any spillover from EB2-WW this year and in a worse case scenario EB2-WW would actually use any spillover from EB1.

Even in a zero spillover scenario, which at this time I don't actually think will happen, the Cut Off Dates should still move past Feb 2005 at some point. The trick would to get approved while they remain so.

[sbhagwat2000]

I'm not aware of anything special about FY2011 off hand. FY2010 was a little below average and the combination of the two was about average.

In FY2012, EB2-WW were retrogressed for 3 months, so in FY2013, potentially EB2-WW approvals can be a normal year's worth plus the additional 6-7k who could not be approved in FY2013 due to retrogression.

For that reason, it may be difficult to get any spillover from EB2-WW this year and in a worse case scenario EB2-WW would actually use any spillover from EB1.

Even in a zero spillover scenario, which at this time I don't actually think will happen, the Cut Off Dates should still move past Feb 2005 at some point. The trick would to get approved while they remain so.

Spec,

Thanks for your reply. We will have to see EB1 usage this year to see how much fall down it gives. I had one more question which is bothering me. The Demand data pre 2007 which fell from 1350 to 1100. does that contain the iterfiling requests made between may and oct when the dates were U. Or those will be added now

[PD2008AUG25]

For that reason, it may be difficult to get any spillover from EB2-WW this year and in a worse case scenario EB2-WW would actually use any spillover from EB1.



Wouldn't any spillover from EB1 go to most retrogressed country, India? I thought spillover is only based on priority date.

[sbhagwat2000]

I was reading up on the visa statistics for the past years and see that a couple of years - 2009 and 2010 EB1 actually used 41000 visas. Thats a bummer. I guess 2013 is building out to be a perfect storm. EB1 demand is high so will most likely consume its quota. EB5 - theres going to be a COD. EB2 WW due to fall through from last year may consume or exceeed its quota. So with this are there any other places from where visas can be spilled overto EB2 I? I hope I am wrong somewhere here but looks like this year theres going to be no spillover. With no SO we are left to the unknowns of demand pre 2004 and so can easily see dates not moving at all. But whats more concerning is that this looks like a long term trend and hence EB2 I will get only 2800 visas for the next few years. Gurus - please correct me if I am wrong with my analysis.

[bvsamrat]

Can you also check how many Eb2-ROW visas were given out on 2009/10/11?
This might give us a clue?


I was reading up on the visa statistics for the past years and see that a couple of years - 2009 and 2010 EB1 actually used 41000 visas. Thats a bummer. I guess 2013 is building out to be a perfect storm. EB1 demand is high so will most likely consume its quota. EB5 - theres going to be a COD. EB2 WW due to fall through from last year may consume or exceeed its quota. So with this are there any other places from where visas can be spilled overto EB2 I? I hope I am wrong somewhere here but looks like this year theres going to be no spillover. With no SO we are left to the unknowns of demand pre 2004 and so can easily see dates not moving at all. But whats more concerning is that this looks like a long term trend and hence EB2 I will get only 2800 visas for the next few years. Gurus - please correct me if I am wrong with my analysis.

[geevikram]

I was reading up on the visa statistics for the past years and see that a couple of years - 2009 and 2010 EB1 actually used 41000 visas. Thats a bummer. I guess 2013 is building out to be a perfect storm. EB1 demand is high so will most likely consume its quota. EB5 - theres going to be a COD. EB2 WW due to fall through from last year may consume or exceeed its quota. So with this are there any other places from where visas can be spilled overto EB2 I? I hope I am wrong somewhere here but looks like this year theres going to be no spillover. With no SO we are left to the unknowns of demand pre 2004 and so can easily see dates not moving at all. But whats more concerning is that this looks like a long term trend and hence EB2 I will get only 2800 visas for the next few years. Gurus - please correct me if I am wrong with my analysis.

There are too many unknowns. Take it easy. As long as EBWW is current, we really won't know how far the dates will progress.(it may move a lot, it may not move at all) It's anybody's guess.

[vizcard]

I think it's fairly safe to say dates will progress to dec2007. The big variable is porting. Ironically, this time last year,the gurus were predicting dec2007 to mar2008.

[qesehmk]

Agree vizcard. Last year that prediction actually was spot on - except that we assumed FIFO but CO approved 1/3rd of 2008 EB2 cases ahead of 2007 cases.

This year - IMHO - Dec 2007 is absolute safe bet i.e 100% possibility. I would place median probability at Aug 2008.


I think it's fairly safe to say dates will progress to dec2007. The big variable is porting. Ironically, this time last year,the gurus were predicting dec2007 to mar2008.

[vizcard]

Agree vizcard. Last year that prediction actually was spot on - except that we assumed FIFO but CO approved 1/3rd of 2008 EB2 cases ahead of 2007 cases.

This year - IMHO - Dec 2007 is absolute safe bet i.e 100% possibility. I would place median probability at Aug 2008.

Cant blame CO for that :) Anyway, some folks got lucky, others got shafted but it'll correct itself with time. I'm not so sure about median being Aug 2008. I'd offer that, that is a best case scenario. Personally, Id love that to be the median scenario because of my PD but realistically I'm not sure.

[sbhagwat2000]

Cant blame CO for that :) Anyway, some folks got lucky, others got shafted but it'll correct itself with time. I'm not so sure about median being Aug 2008. I'd offer that, that is a best case scenario. Personally, Id love that to be the median scenario because of my PD but realistically I'm not sure.

So the years 2009 and 2010 when EB1 used 40000 visas EB2 ROW used 27000 and 30000 respectively and hence we got extra visas. in 2011 when EB2 ROW used more that 34,400 EB1 used 27000. So we were lucky last few years when one used more visas other was using less. Thats 100% not going to happen this year. Best case is EB1 is going to use 40000 and EB2 ROW 34400. So I really dont see any SO this year. The data is correct I may be wrong in analysis and there may be some category I am not aware of but we can say good bye to SOFAD this year from EB1 and EB2 ROW. So in that case I think dates may not move at all or based on current DD move to 2006 start.

[qesehmk]

viz - I would absolutely blame CO for that. Simply because it is his job to ensure that people from same chargeability generally get GC in FIFO manner based on PD.

He should've easily foreseen the 2007 august cliff for EB2IC and moved dates quite early to ensure he had sufficient applications to approve if and when numbers were available. Instead he moved the dates quite haphazard.

As per Aug 2008 being a median or not - I would totally respect your opinion since we all are guessing (somewhat intelligently!). My optimism stems from the continued malaise in economy which means much lower levels of EB2ROW and possibly even EB1. This has been quite true for last 4 years and generally EB2IC have benefitted. I do agree that as economy comes back - EB2IC timelines are going to be crushed significantly.


Cant blame CO for that :) Anyway, some folks got lucky, others got shafted but it'll correct itself with time. I'm not so sure about median being Aug 2008. I'd offer that, that is a best case scenario. Personally, Id love that to be the median scenario because of my PD but realistically I'm not sure.

[Spectator]

Based mainly on Trackitt numbers and some educated guesses, here is what I think happened in October.

Generally, a few late updates will increase the figure slightly.

EB1 ---- 2,300
EB2-WW - 3,900
EB2-I ---- 800
EB2-C ---- 250
EB3 ---- 3,000
EB4 ------ 850
EB5 ---- 1,000

Total - 12,100

Max Allowed in month (9%) - 12,600

The figures appear to be at least sensible, but I make no claims to their accuracy.

[openaccount]

Based mainly on Trackitt numbers and some educated guesses, here is what I think happened in October.

Generally, a few late updates will increase the figure slightly.

EB1 ---- 2,300
EB2-WW - 3,900
EB2-I ---- 800
EB2-C ---- 250
EB3 ---- 3,000
EB4 ------ 850
EB5 ---- 1,000

Total - 12,100

Max Allowed in month (9%) - 12,600

The figures appear to be at least sensible, but I make no claims to their accuracy.

Spec,

Nice to see some numbers after along time, especially with 485-Inventory delay.

If EB2I used 800 in October itself, then for December also EB2I is going to stay at 2004. Monthly allocation is 250 and in one month EB2I used 3 months numbers.

[Spectator]

Thanks spec. I am very curious as to your methods for arriving at these numbers, but it is interesting.sportsfan,

You're welcome.


How do you deduce EB2-I used 800 numbers? I thought they were going by a monthly allocation. Does this mean we can expect a fair jump in the December bulletin (that seems contrary to the last word from CO).I would caution at taking the figures to literally. They are only meant to be indicative.

For EB2-I, I am looking at the historical % between Trackitt approvals and actual numbers. I have to look at both EB2 and EB3 because most porters already had an I-485 pending in EB3. Fortunately they are quite similar. This gives a spread of 750 - 825.

I only look at Primary approvals in Trackitt and calculate from that baseline.

In October, to date, there are 37 EB2-I Trackitt approvals (corrected for those that still show in EB3 etc).

The breakdown by PD for the EB2-I approvals is:

PD --- No.
2001 --- 2
2002 --- 2
2003 -- 19
2004 -- 14

Total - 37

If there were only 250 approvals, then Trackitt would have to represent about 15% of all approved EB2-I cases, which is far higher than the historical number over several years. It is possible the % has risen slightly and I will amend the numbers if better info becomes available.

I don't think there is any way it is as low as 250. Given the numbers, there may be no further movement in the December VB either. That said, CO works in mysterious ways!


EB2-WW is mostly backlog, so if we subtract that from the equation, then both EB1 and EB2-WW point to a fairly large spillover later this year. What's your take on that?That's true, but it is a constrained backlog to January 1, 2012.

November will also release more substantial EB2-WW backlog.

I think it is too early to say anything about EB2-WW, given the unusual circumstances.

I also think it is too early to talk about EB1. The approvals can be quite "lumpy". The numbers are also dominated by Indian EB1C approvals, so most EB1 approvals are quite poorly represented, especially EB1-WW in general.

The October EB1 approvals are slightly higher than the same period last year.


EB5 number is absolutely crazy. How did you arrive at that number? Looks like there is not going to be any spillover whatsoever from EB5 this year.CO said that 10% of EB5 would be used in October. That is 940, so I have rounded up slightly.

EB4 is a pure guess based on maximum usage. I need to see what happened in FY2012. FY2011 was low, but it might have been a blip.

You can find more detail here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?1373-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2013-vs.-FY2012).

Hope that helps.

[openaccount]

from trackitt, murthy's article :http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/priority-date-predictions-for-fy13/

Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13. This is subject to change - either up or down - depending upon the usage in the other categories, as explained here.

In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers.
38k total to EB2IC in FY2012 WOW really:confused:

At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13.
which is 10k to EB2I that should take EB2I to Jan2008 assuming porting is <=3k

[qesehmk]

Friends - sorry to steal attention from this thread. But can you please suggest charities for November donations using this site's ad revenues please? We will have about $100 to donate.

please reply HERE (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made/page3) http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made/page3

[GhostWriter]

Thanks for sharing openaccount. Two more interesting things from the article

1. The estimate given as a best case scenario is that, by the end of FY13, EB2 India's cutoff date will advance to a new cutoff date, set at some point in early 2008.

2. Each month, the DOS reports receiving thousands of these requests connected to upgraded cases. Since EB3 is oversubscribed, regardless of country of chargeability, many of these cases are filed by those in EB3 ROW. .... The increase in cases shifting from EB3 to EB2 ROW increases demand in that category. The result is fewer excess numbers that can be shifted out of EB2 ROW to EB2 India and China.



from trackitt, murthy's article :http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/priority-date-predictions-for-fy13/

[Spectator]

from trackitt, murthy's article :http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/priority-date-predictions-for-fy13/

Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13. This is subject to change - either up or down - depending upon the usage in the other categories, as explained here.

In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers.
38k total to EB2IC in FY2012 WOW really:confused:

At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13.
which is 10k to EB2I that should take EB2I to Jan2008 assuming porting is <=3kopenaccount,

Thanks for that. Unfortunately , some of the language is quite ambiguous. I very much doubt that EB2-C received 19k last year. I think they mean EB2-IC received 19k between them. If so, that is quite a bit lower than I was expecting. 19k + 5.8k would have made sense.

At a 13k SOFAD level, EB2-C wouldn't use any spillover, so EB2-I would have 10.2k available. That is pretty much what I have been using to date.

That might leave EB2-I in Q4 2007, possibly very early 2008, depending on porting levels.

If the number is talking about 13k spillover then dates could move to April 2008 for EB2-I. At the moment, 13k SO seems a little optimistic.

[justvisiting]

openaccount,

Thanks for that. Unfortunately , some of the language is quite ambiguous. I very much doubt that EB2-C received 19k last year. I think they mean EB2-IC received 19k between them. If so, that is quite a bit lower than I was expecting.

At a 13k SOFAD level, EB2-C wouldn't use any spillover, so EB2-I would have 10.2k available. That is pretty much what I have been using to date.

That might leave EB2-I in Q4 2007, possibly very early 2008, depending on porting levels.

Porting has become CO's [and everyone trying to predict PD movement]'s greatest headache. It seems pretty clear by now he has no idea how much is out there. This is surprising to me, and it all goes back to USCIS not compiling ANY statistics on I-140 approvals.

There haven't been any Inventory updates either...

[bvsamrat]

I have seen here and other forums that many enquiring with PDs of 2004/2005 are majority porters. But very few porters with PDs of 2006/7/8. If at all , will all these cases be added to demand at any time in future?


Porting has become CO's [and everyone trying to predict PD movement]'s greatest headache. It seems pretty clear by now he has no idea how much is out there. This is surprising to me, and it all goes back to USCIS not compiling ANY statistics on I-140 approvals.

There haven't been any Inventory updates either...

[GhostWriter]

I think the focus has been off the correct type of porting. If the Murthy article is accurate then bulk of the porting is EB3-ROW porting. If we take what they call "thousands of upgrade applications per month" as just 1K per month that is 12K porting per year. If EB3-I porting is 3K per year that still leaves room for 9K EB3-ROW porting. This actually also explains what we were discussing couple of pages ago i.e. why does low PERM applications for ROW not reconcile with high number of EB2-ROW I-485s. I think high EB3-ROW porting explains that anomaly. PD for EB3-ROW has been between 2004-2006 last couple of years. Post 2007 EB3-ROWers (without EADs) would have been porting over this time and since EB2-ROW has been mostly current they would never have shown up in the demand data.

Since details for porting are not available this is just a theory and could be wrong but i do think that low ROW PERM numbers but high EB2-ROW usage does make it seem possible. So EB2-I could have been losing much more potential spillover to EB3-ROW (and not to EB3-I).


I have seen here and other forums that many enquiring with PDs of 2004/2005 are majority porters. But very few porters with PDs of 2006/7/8. If at all , will all these cases be added to demand at any time in future?

[Spectator]

I think the focus has been off the correct type of porting. If the Murthy article is accurate then bulk of the porting is EB3-ROW porting. If we take what they call "thousands of upgrade applications per month" as just 1K per month that is 12K porting per year. If EB3-I porting is 3K per year that still leaves room for 9K EB3-ROW porting. This actually also explains what we were discussing couple of pages ago i.e. why does low PERM applications for ROW not reconcile with high number of EB2-ROW I-485s. I think high EB3-ROW porting explains that anomaly. PD for EB3-ROW has been between 2004-2006 last couple of years. Post 2007 EB3-ROWers (without EADs) would have been porting over this time and since EB2-ROW has been mostly current they would never have shown up in the demand data.

Since details for porting are not available this is just a theory and could be wrong but i do think that low ROW PERM numbers but high EB2-ROW usage does make it seem possible. So EB2-I could have been losing much more potential spillover to EB3-ROW (and not to EB3-I).GhostWriter,

That is not how I read the article.

I believe the bulk of porting comes from India, at a level much higher than you have indicated, for several reasons. I won't discuss that.

There certainly is ROW-M-P porting, but I think it is (currently) at a lower level.

Remember that CO really doesn't have any idea of the numbers.

For EB2-ROW / EB2-NIW-ROW (doesn't include M or P) adjusted Trackitt approvals to date, here is the PD year breakdown:

2007 -- 3
2008 -- 1
2009 -- 4
2010 -- 6
2011 - 61
2012 - 22

Total - 97

Some of the 2007 numbers (2) relate to Indians with Cross Chargeability to their spouse.

A further 7 of the cases 2007 through 2010 appear to be porting. Other cases appear to be caused by the long time it took to get PERM and I-140 approval. For some cases,it is not possible to tell due to lack of information.

The 2011 and 2012 PD cases are quite expected.

Hope the figures help.

[GhostWriter]

GhostWriter,

There certainly is ROW-M-P porting, but I think it is (currently) at a lower level.



Spec, below are the EB-WW (EB-ROW-MP) PERM numbers, expected I-485s using these numbers and actual EB2-WW approvals. The difference should be an indicator of porting. While all the PERMs filed in one year don't get GC issued in the same year, but since EB2-WW is current it should be within two years from PD in most cases. The average over years should even out the timing issue.

I have assumed 70% of PERMs filed in EB-WW to be for EB2, 90% approval for I-140 (vs. 80% you assume for EB2-IC analysis) and dependent factor of 2. Also assumed zero demand destruction. This gives an overall factor of 1.26. Even with this factor there is a high gap in expected and actual approvals in EB2-WW for 2011 and 2012. So there is a possibility that there is high EB3-WW to EB2-WW porting at least since last two years.

(Rounded to nearest 1000)
Year---PERM-------Exp.485-----Approvals----Porting
2009---23K---------29K---------33K---------4K (~3.7K)
2010---19K---------24K---------27K---------4K (~3.8K)
2011---18K---------23K---------35K---------12K (~11.6K)
2012---22K---------27K---------34K*---------7K (~7.3K)
Avg.---20K---------26K---------32K---------7K (~6.6K)

* For 2012 approvals number is an estimate assuming no cut-off date were imposed on EB-WW. For 2009-2011 the approvals are actual numbers from the DOS visa reports (link (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_1476.html)).

The average porting estimate then for EB3-WW is 6.6K over last four years and it is 9.5K over last two years !!! Do you have any other explanation for the gap in the above table. 2008 did have a high number of (38K) PERMs for EB-WW but they would have been approved by the end of 2010 (at the latest).

The 100 sample points from Trackitt that you provided are giving us a range of +/- 3500. So if we take 11 cases (out of 9 certain and 5 suspects) as porting cases in your sample of 100 then it is telling us that actual porting number will be contained in the interval 350 to 7350 in total of 35000 approvals (with a fairly high level of certainity). The 7.3K number for 2012 in the table above does fall in your range estimate from Trackitt.

What would be your estimate of EB3-WW porting ?

[suninphx]

Spec, below are the EB-WW (EB-ROW-MP) PERM numbers, expected I-485s using these numbers and actual EB2-WW approvals. The difference should be an indicator of porting. While all the PERMs filed in one year don't get GC issued in the same year, but since EB2-WW is current it should be within two years from PD in most cases. The average over years should even out the timing issue.

I have assumed 70% of PERMs filed in EB-WW to be for EB2, 90% approval for I-140 (vs. 80% you assume for EB2-IC analysis) and dependent factor of 2. Also assumed zero demand destruction. This gives an overall factor of 1.26. Even with this factor there is a high gap in expected and actual approvals in EB2-WW for 2011 and 2012. So there is a possibility that there is high EB3-WW to EB2-WW porting at least since last two years.

(Rounded to nearest 1000)
Year---PERM-------Exp.485-----Approvals----Porting
2009---23K---------29K---------33K---------4K (~3.7K)
2010---19K---------24K---------27K---------4K (~3.8K)
2011---18K---------23K---------35K---------12K (~11.6K)
2012---22K---------27K---------34K---------7K (~7.3K)
Avg.---20K---------26K---------32K---------7K (~6.6K)

The average porting estimate then for EB3-WW is 6.6K over last four years and it is 9.5K over last two years !!! Do you have any other explanation for the gap in the above table. 2008 did have a high number of (38K) PERMs for EB-WW but they would have been approved by the end of 2010 (at the latest).

The 100 sample points from Trackitt that you provided are giving us a range of +/- 3500. So if we take 11 cases (out of 9 certain and 5 suspects) as porting cases in your sample of 100 then it is telling us that actual porting number will be contained in the interval 350 to 7350 in total of 35000 approvals (with a fairly high level of certainity). The 7.3K number for 2012 in the table above does fall in your range estimate from Trackitt.

What would be your estimate of EB3-WW porting ?

EB2WW got 34K visas in 2012? Really? The SOFAD number for EB2IC do not match with above numbers IMO.

[kd2008]

Spec, below are the EB-WW (EB-ROW-MP) PERM numbers, expected I-485s using these numbers and actual EB2-WW approvals. The difference should be an indicator of porting. While all the PERMs filed in one year don't get GC issued in the same year, but since EB2-WW is current it should be within two years from PD in most cases. The average over years should even out the timing issue.

I have assumed 70% of PERMs filed in EB-WW to be for EB2, 90% approval for I-140 (vs. 80% you assume for EB2-IC analysis) and dependent factor of 2. Also assumed zero demand destruction. This gives an overall factor of 1.26. Even with this factor there is a high gap in expected and actual approvals in EB2-WW for 2011 and 2012. So there is a possibility that there is high EB3-WW to EB2-WW porting at least since last two years.

(Rounded to nearest 1000)
Year---PERM-------Exp.485-----Approvals----Porting
2009---23K---------29K---------33K---------4K (~3.7K)
2010---19K---------24K---------27K---------4K (~3.8K)
2011---18K---------23K---------35K---------12K (~11.6K)
2012---22K---------27K---------34K---------7K (~7.3K)
Avg.---20K---------26K---------32K---------7K (~6.6K)

The average porting estimate then for EB3-WW is 6.6K over last four years and it is 9.5K over last two years !!! Do you have any other explanation for the gap in the above table. 2008 did have a high number of (38K) PERMs for EB-WW but they would have been approved by the end of 2010 (at the latest).

The 100 sample points from Trackitt that you provided are giving us a range of +/- 3500. So if we take 11 cases (out of 9 certain and 5 suspects) as porting cases in your sample of 100 then it is telling us that actual porting number will be contained in the interval 350 to 7350 in total of 35000 approvals (with a fairly high level of certainity). The 7.3K number for 2012 in the table above does fall in your range estimate from Trackitt.

What would be your estimate of EB3-WW porting ?

From initial reactions, your theory is wrong. For each and every porting case a new PERM is needed. Since, the PERM #s are consistently low, your theory does not hold. Also, EB3-ROW should show proportional lowering of demand - which it has not. One reason might be NIWs and an Indian interfiling for a different country of chargeability due to marriage to a non-Indian - which could result in larger demand for ROWs, and would bake in some factor of demand destruction for India.

[GhostWriter]

EB2WW got 34K visas in 2012? Really? The SOFAD number for EB2IC do not match with above numbers IMO.

Suninphx, For 2012 EB2WW got about 27K approvals in 9 months (as per Spec's estimate) before a cut off date was imposed. Prorated that would have easily crossed 34K. Alternatively you can add the 4K from the demand data and add another 3K for the people who were not able to file in last three months. Either way if a cut off date was not imposed EB2WW would have used entire 34K allotment. I will edit the post to note this point.
For 2011 the approvals are actual and can be found from the visa report (link (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY11AnnualReport-Table%20V-Part2.pdf)). Total of 67K EB2 approvals of which 32K went to Eb2-IC and 35K to EB2-ROW. EB2-ROW actually used a little spillover in 2011. I haven't even added the CP cases in these approvals but they won't be a lot.


From initial reactions, your theory is wrong. For each and every porting case a new PERM is needed. Since, the PERM #s are consistently low, your theory does not hold. Also, EB3-ROW should show proportional lowering of demand - which it has not. One reason might be NIWs and an Indian interfiling for a different country of chargeability due to marriage to a non-Indian - which could result in larger demand for ROWs, and would bake in some factor of demand destruction for India.

kd, i am only trying to understand the big gap between PERM and I485 for ROW. Can you explain the 19K gap in 2011 and 2012. I agree with you on PERM but the porting cases will not necessarily reduce EB3-WW demand. If these cases are post 2007 then they would not have filed I-485 yet in EB3. Is your alternate theory an increase in inter-country marriages in last two years ?

[kd2008]

Suninphx, For 2012 EB2WW got about 27K approvals in 9 months (as per Spec's estimate) before a cut off date was imposed. Prorated that would have easily crossed 34K. Alternatively you can add the 4K from the demand data and add another 3K for the people who were not able to file in last three months. Either way if a cut off date was not imposed EB2WW would have used entire 34K allotment. I will edit the post to note this point.
For 2011 the approvals are actual and can be found from the visa report (link (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY11AnnualReport-Table%20V-Part2.pdf)). Total of 67K EB2 approvals of which 32K went to Eb2-IC and 35K to EB2-ROW. EB2-ROW actually used a little spillover in 2011. I haven't even added the CP cases in these approvals but they won't be a lot.



kd, i am only trying to understand the big gap between PERM and I485 for ROW. Can you explain the 19K gap in 2011 and 2012. I agree with you on PERM but the porting cases will not necessarily reduce EB3-WW demand. If these cases are post 2007 then they would not have filed I-485 yet in EB3. Is your alternate theory an increase in inter-country marriages in last two years ?

PERM and I-485 are not necessarily approved or adjudicated in the same calendar year or fiscal year they are filed. 2010 and 2011 saw faster PERM approvals and subsequently reduction in PERM backlogs. This resulted in higher visa demand and I-485 approvals for 2011 and 2012. The ripples just continue on. End of fiscal year 2012 saw retrogression for EB2-ROW so there will be higher demand in fiscal year 2013. And so it goes on.

If we get a full 2 years of consistent PERM processing, quick I485 approvals and no retrogression for EB2-ROW with low PERM numbers to begin with and if we still see high demand then something is up.

[Spectator]

Is out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5803.html

No change for EB2-I

EB2-C advances to 22OCT07.

No forecasts in the VB, unfortunately.

UPDATE:

A forecast has now been added.

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

FAMILY-sponsored categories (monthly)

Worldwide dates:
F1: three or four weeks
F2A: four to six weeks
F2B: three to five weeks
F3: one or two weeks
F4: one or two weeks

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (monthly)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China: five to eight weeks
India: no movement

Employment Third:

Worldwide: three to five weeks
China: one to two months
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: three to five weeks
Philippines: one to three weeks

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current*

*The following advisory is based strictly on the current demand situation. Since demand patterns can (and sometimes do) change over time, this should be considered a worst case scenario at this point.

It appears likely that a cut-off date will need to be established for the China Employment Fifth preference category at some point during second half of fiscal year 2013. Such action would be delayed as long as possible, since while number use may be excessive over a 1 to 5 month period, it could average out to an acceptable level over a longer (e.g., 4 to 9 month) period. This would be the first time a cut-off date has been established in this category, which is why readers are being provided with the maximum amount of advance notice regarding the possibility.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories are for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables which can change at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future, with the possible exception of the China Employment Fifth preference category mentioned above.

[abcx13]

This has been true for a while, and others might have pointed out this idiosyncrasy before, but EB2I is now behind EB3-ROW. Just wonderful...

[bookworm]

Looks like this year CO is going to err on the side of caution and waste some visa #'s.

[Spectator]

Looks like this year CO is going to err on the side of caution and waste some visa #'s.Err on the side of caution - yes. Waste visas - unlikely.

CO experimented with releasing spillover early last year (perhaps prompted by the need to move the COD forward) and it was an abysmal failure.

He seems to have returned to the normal pattern of releasing spillover relatively late in the FY.

Judging by USCIS ability to process cases last year, they seem quite capable of approving all potential spillover visas in a single month if required, especially as they are now pretty much all pre-adjudicated.

[bookworm]

Err on the side of caution - yes. Waste visas - unlikely.

CO experimented with releasing spillover early last year (perhaps prompted by the need to move the COD forward) and it was an abysmal failure.

He seems to have returned to the normal pattern of releasing spillover relatively late in the FY.

Judging by USCIS ability to process cases last year, they seem quite capable of approving all potential spillover visas in a single month if required, especially as they are now pretty much all pre-adjudicated.

I missed the pre-adjudicated part in my thought process. Keeping my fingers crossed for the last qtr of this fiscal.

[sbhagwat2000]

They did not release the demand data. Any reason you think why that would be the case? Isint demand data released every month

[Spectator]

They did not release the demand data. Any reason you think why that would be the case? Isint demand data released every monthThere has been the odd month when it hasn't been published.

It's very annoying.

[Spectator]

I have been trying to think about EB2-WW.

I just wanted to talk out loud, since it seems we're going to see quite uneven approvals through the FY.

To date we have seen the effect of retrogression for July through September 2012.

In October and November, those cases already submitted and adjudicated are now being approved. To date, that backlog looks to be about 7k and approvals seem to be slowing.

The other aspect is that for July through October, nobody has had a chance to submit an EB2-WW I-485, if we say that all pre 2012 PD cases had already submitted an I-485.

So, when the backlog is dealt with, there is likely to be a few months when there won't be many EB2-WW approvals.

Normally, assuming a 4-6 month adjudication time, cases that would normally have been submitted in July - October 2012 should be approved in the November 2012 - April 2013 period.

However, the earliest these could be submitted was actually November 2012, so they will likely be approved from March 2013 onwards. At this time, the number of approvals are likely to be very large, but it does seem to leave the possibility of a very slow period from December 2012 through February 2013.

It leaves approvals front and back loaded.

Possibly USCIS will try to adjudicate them faster, as they did for EB2-IC last year. However, 3 months seemed to be the quickest they could generally be dealt with.

Alternatively, USCIS may try to concentrate on other Categories during this "slack" period.

Knowing this, it may make it even more difficult for CO to consider releasing spillover early.

[kkruna]

Demand data

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[sbhagwat2000]

I have been trying to think about EB2-WW.

I just wanted to talk out loud, since it seems we're going to see quite uneven approvals through the FY.

To date we have seen the effect of retrogression for July through September 2012.

In October and November, those cases already submitted and adjudicated are now being approved. To date, that backlog looks to be about 7k and approvals seem to be slowing.

The other aspect is that for July through October, nobody has had a chance to submit an EB2-WW I-485, if we say that all pre 2012 PD cases had already submitted an I-485.

So, when the backlog is dealt with, there is likely to be a few months when there won't be many EB2-WW approvals.

Normally, assuming a 4-6 month adjudication time, cases that would normally have been submitted in July - October 2012 should be approved in the November 2012 - April 2013 period.

However, the earliest these could be submitted was actually November 2012, so they will likely be approved from March 2013 onwards. At this time, the number of approvals are likely to be very large, but it does seem to leave the possibility of a very slow period from December 2012 through February 2013.

It leaves approvals front and back loaded.

Possibly USCIS will try to adjudicate them faster, as they did for EB2-IC last year. However, 3 months seemed to be the quickest they could generally be dealt with.

Alternatively, USCIS may try to concentrate on other Categories during this "slack" period.

Knowing this, it may make it even more difficult for CO to consider releasing spillover early.

Thats good analysis makes sense. To add to that I think and correct me if I am wrong - In that same time period where EB2 WW is going to go up I think EB2 I approvals would be less than what they are today as they would have worked through the demand that they could not clear from 2012 for applications before sept 2004. At that time it would be the normal monthly intefiling requests and not what we have today which is - Normal interfiling requests + those that were not worked on when the dates were U. So may be just may be dates for EB2 I may move some in second quarter.

[srimurthy]

The Visa bulletin is also out and no change in dates:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5803.html

[imdeng]

So the total EB2I inventory (from Demand Data) increased by 2100. Following is the breakdown in the increase:


PD in 2006 and before: +200
PD in 2007 and before: +600, -Differential for 2007 PDs: +400
PD in 2008 and before: +1100, Differential for 2008 PDs: +500
PD in 2009 and before: +1775, Differential for 2009 PDs: +675
PD in 2010 and before: +2100, Differential for 2010 PDs: +325

So, assuming that any changes in PDs in 2008 onwards is because of Pre-Adj - then it tells us that the increase of 1500 is due to Pre-Adj. Anything before PD in 2007 is surely a porting case - thats 200. Parts of 2007 PD can be porting as well - lets say half of it. Then we have 400 additions due to porting and 1700 due to new Pre-Adj. Now, we don't know whether any visas were issued during the month. If yes - then all of that would have gone to porting applications. If, for example, the monthly quota of 250 was issued - then we get total additions due to porting to 650 and due to Pre-Adj to 1700.

No movement in Dec VB is sad (what a difference an year makes - we were all flying high this time last year) and disappointing. The potential porting numbers are quite problematic. But, at least, we can take heart in the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW is current - so I guess we are accumulating spillovers every month - which will be available to us later in the FY barring an increase in EB1/EB2WW demand.

[imdeng]

Doing the similar analysis for EB3I Demand Data - this time looking at reduction in numbers:

PD in 2002 or before: -250
PD in 2003 or before: -425, Differential for 2003 PDs: -175
PD in 2004 or before: -575, Differential for 2004 PDs: -150
PD in 2005 or before: -650, Differential for 2005 PDs: -75
PD in 2006 or before: -800, Differential for 2006 PDs: -150
PD in 2007 or before: -850, Differential for 2007 PDs: -50

Assuming that the 250 reduction in 2002 PD is due to regular visa issue, the rest (600) can be chalked up to porting. This compares well to the 650 estimate we have for porting using EB2I Demand Data. So may be 600-650 is a good estimate for monthly porting volume?

Only the 2006PD porting volume of 150 stands out as unusual. The rest of the numbers seem reasonable.


So the total EB2I inventory (from Demand Data) increased by 2100. Following is the breakdown in the increase:


PD in 2006 and before: +200
PD in 2007 and before: +600, -Differential for 2007 PDs: +400
PD in 2008 and before: +1100, Differential for 2008 PDs: +500
PD in 2009 and before: +1775, Differential for 2009 PDs: +675
PD in 2010 and before: +2100, Differential for 2010 PDs: +325

So, assuming that any changes in PDs in 2008 onwards is because of Pre-Adj - then it tells us that the increase of 1500 is due to Pre-Adj. Anything before PD in 2007 is surely a porting case - thats 200. Parts of 2007 PD can be porting as well - lets say half of it. Then we have 400 additions due to porting and 1700 due to new Pre-Adj. Now, we don't know whether any visas were issued during the month. If yes - then all of that would have gone to porting applications. If, for example, the monthly quota of 250 was issued - then we get total additions due to porting to 650 and due to Pre-Adj to 1700.

No movement in Dec VB is sad (what a difference an year makes - we were all flying high this time last year) and disappointing. The potential porting numbers are quite problematic. But, at least, we can take heart in the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW is current - so I guess we are accumulating spillovers every month - which will be available to us later in the FY barring an increase in EB1/EB2WW demand.

[abcx13]

Doing the similar analysis for EB3I Demand Data - this time looking at reduction in numbers:

PD in 2002 or before: -250
PD in 2003 or before: -425, Differential for 2003 PDs: -175
PD in 2004 or before: -575, Differential for 2004 PDs: -150
PD in 2005 or before: -650, Differential for 2005 PDs: -75
PD in 2006 or before: -800, Differential for 2006 PDs: -150
PD in 2007 or before: -850, Differential for 2007 PDs: -50

Assuming that the 250 reduction in 2002 PD is due to regular visa issue, the rest (600) can be chalked up to porting. This compares well to the 650 estimate we have for porting using EB2I Demand Data. So may be 600-650 is a good estimate for monthly porting volume?

Only the 2006PD porting volume of 150 stands out as unusual. The rest of the numbers seem reasonable.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this doesn't count anyone with a post 2007 EB3 PD that would be porting, right?

[imdeng]

There can't be any EB3I with PD beyond the 07/07 event in the Demand Data. EB3Is are not being pre-adjuducated like EB2I filings.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this doesn't count anyone with a post 2007 EB3 PD that would be porting, right?

[abcx13]

There can't be any EB3I with PD beyond the 07/07 event in the Demand Data. EB3Is are not being pre-adjuducated like EB2I filings.

Couldn't they directly show up in the EB2 demand data with a post-July 07 PD though?

[imdeng]

AFAIK, Demand Data only shows cases that are Documentarily Qualified for a visa. So no - post-July'07 cases will not show in DD unless they have been Pre-Adj'ed.

Couldn't they directly show up in the EB2 demand data with a post-July 07 PD though?

[Spectator]

So the total EB2I inventory (from Demand Data) increased by 2100. Following is the breakdown in the increase:


PD in 2006 and before: +200
PD in 2007 and before: +600, -Differential for 2007 PDs: +400
PD in 2008 and before: +1100, Differential for 2008 PDs: +500
PD in 2009 and before: +1775, Differential for 2009 PDs: +675
PD in 2010 and before: +2100, Differential for 2010 PDs: +325

So, assuming that any changes in PDs in 2008 onwards is because of Pre-Adj - then it tells us that the increase of 1500 is due to Pre-Adj. Anything before PD in 2007 is surely a porting case - thats 200. Parts of 2007 PD can be porting as well - lets say half of it. Then we have 400 additions due to porting and 1700 due to new Pre-Adj. Now, we don't know whether any visas were issued during the month. If yes - then all of that would have gone to porting applications. If, for example, the monthly quota of 250 was issued - then we get total additions due to porting to 650 and due to Pre-Adj to 1700.

No movement in Dec VB is sad (what a difference an year makes - we were all flying high this time last year) and disappointing. The potential porting numbers are quite problematic. But, at least, we can take heart in the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW is current - so I guess we are accumulating spillovers every month - which will be available to us later in the FY barring an increase in EB1/EB2WW demand.imdeng,

As you say, it is a net increase of 200 for cases before 2007.

By my calculations, about 700 porting cases were approved between the Demand Data publications.

That would put the gross increase at 900 cases for the month. I think the number is high because those cases with a pre September 2004 PD from when EB2-I was Unavailable are now having the final interfiling steps completed and a visa can be requested.

Currently there are 1,300 cases shown in the Demand data before 2007. My calculations show 900-950 porting cases already approved, so the total known about is therefore 2,200-2,250 at present.

Using Teddy's 500 cases per month for the remaining 10 months would add a further 5,000 and bring the total to around 7,250.

I really don't know what the true number will be, but I think it is in the right ball bark. There were about 1.3k cases already in previous figures. If that was normal backlog, the net number would be about 6k.

There will only be so many Porting cases per PD year, so to a certain extent, slow or no movement will constrain the numbers that can actually be approved. I have no idea what the number per PD year is.

Having said all the above, I could equally be totally wrong, but I thought I would share.

[abcx13]

AFAIK, Demand Data only shows cases that are Documentarily Qualified for a visa. So no - post-July'07 cases will not show in DD unless they have been Pre-Adj'ed.

I don't understand - let's say you had an EB3 I140 approved post July 2007 but then didn't get to file I485. You then got a new PERM and had an EB2 I140 approved in 2008, 2009 or whenever. Now this EB2 application could be pre-adjudicated and would still show up in EB2 demand data but with a post-July 2007 PD. This would still be porting but I think your math is not counting this.

[openaccount]

imdeng,


Currently there are 1,300 cases shown in the Demand data before 2007. My calculations show 900-950 porting cases already approved, so the total known about is therefore 2,200-2,250 at present.

Using Teddy's 500 cases per month for the remaining 10 months would add a further 5,000 and bring the total to around 7,250.

I really don't know what the true number will be, but I think it is in the right ball bark. There were about 1.3k cases already in previous figures. If that was normal backlog, the net number would be about 6k.

There will only be so many Porting cases per PD year, so to a certain extent, slow or no movement will constrain the numbers that can actually be approved. I have no idea what the number per PD year is.

Having said all the above, I could equally be totally wrong, but I thought I would share.

Spec if 6k is just for Pds prior to Sep2004, as dates move(when ever that happens) porting will be proportional for those years(post Sep2004). As interfiling does not take much time when PD is current they will be eventually added to DD which would pull PD further behind.

[sbhagwat2000]

imdeng,

As you say, it is a net increase of 200 for cases before 2007.

By my calculations, about 700 porting cases were approved between the Demand Data publications.

That would put the gross increase at 900 cases for the month. I think the number is high because those cases with a pre September 2004 PD from when EB2-I was Unavailable are now having the final interfiling steps completed and a visa can be requested.

Currently there are 1,300 cases shown in the Demand data before 2007. My calculations show 900-950 porting cases already approved, so the total known about is therefore 2,200-2,250 at present.

Using Teddy's 500 cases per month for the remaining 10 months would add a further 5,000 and bring the total to around 7,250.

I really don't know what the true number will be, but I think it is in the right ball bark. There were about 1.3k cases already in previous figures. If that was normal backlog, the net number would be about 6k.

There will only be so many Porting cases per PD year, so to a certain extent, slow or no movement will constrain the numbers that can actually be approved. I have no idea what the number per PD year is.

Having said all the above, I could equally be totally wrong, but I thought I would share.

Spec,

I think your number of 900 may be high. The reason is this - When dates were U the interfiling requests made would have been added to the DD by USCIS. So when they released the DD for october the interfilings made in the months prior when dates were U should have been in the DD. The DD in october had 1350 as the number before 2007. If the number is 900 then the DD for october would have reflected that. It would have been a much bigger number than 1350. I think and this is just my guess - as they finish processing the interfiling requests made last fiscal that is - between june and sept 2012 - they will move the dates. That may be sometime next quarter.

[Kanmani]

Spec,

I think your number of 900 may be high. The reason is this - When dates were U the interfiling requests made would have been added to the DD by USCIS. So when they released the DD for october the interfilings made in the months prior when dates were U should have been in the DD. The DD in october had 1350 as the number before 2007. If the number is 900 then the DD for october would have reflected that. It would have been a much bigger number than 1350. I think and this is just my guess - as they finish processing the interfiling requests made last fiscal that is - between june and sept 2012 - they will move the dates. That may be sometime next quarter.

bhagwat, Interfiling requests are not allowed if the dates are U/retrogressed. Priority Dates must be current .

[sbhagwat2000]

bhagwat, Interfiling requests are not allowed if the dates are U/retrogressed. Priority Dates must be current .

Are you sure about it? Cause if you look at the trackitt trackers for interfiling I see interfiling letters to link cases being sent in august and sept and being acted upon by USCIS. If they are linking cases when dates are U then they must be added to the DD. Also if what you are saying is true then all increases before 2007 would be due to pre 2004 requests. is that correct? since post 2005 is not current.

You may be right here - But I posed the same question to Ron Gotcher and he replied that cases between May and Sept when dates were U were interlinked then and added to DD -

Me - Hi Ron,

The upgrade cases that u are talking abt in the case where the applicant has a pending 485 I guess you are talking abt interfling right? On an average how fast are those cases added to the demand data. There must be lots of 485 interfiling requests backed up between May and October right? When do you expect to see them in the demand data. Also how much demand do you think will be consumed by porting cases pre 2007 and how much Spillover and fall down are you expecting this year considering that demand for EB1 and EB 2 WW has increased

Ron - When a case gets upgraded, the USCIS is supposed to report the new demand to the Visa Office and that number is added to the demand data. If there is a time lag, it is probably on the order of one or two months from the time the applicant makes the request until the time they do the upgrade. What is unknown presently is how quickly the USCIS takes the EB3 numbers off the board. Some of us suspect that they aren't doing this and the EB3 backlog is falsely inflated.

Me - Thanks for clarifying this. So this means that theoretically even if the dates were U between May and October most or at least some of the interfiling requests that have been made post May have been added to the demand data already. right?

Ron - Yes, that is correct.

[Kanmani]

bhagwat, Please refer to my earlier post in this context here ....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=27904#post27904

[sbhagwat2000]

bhagwat, Please refer to my earlier post in this context here ....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=27904#post27904

Makes sense. Thanks for this info.

[Spectator]

Are you sure about it? Cause if you look at the trackitt trackers for interfiling I see interfiling letters to link cases being sent in august and sept and being acted upon by USCIS. If they are linking cases when dates are U then they must be added to the DD. Also if what you are saying is true then all increases before 2007 would be due to pre 2004 requests. is that correct? since post 2005 is not current.

You may be right here - But I posed the same question to Ron Gotcher and he replied that cases between May and Sept when dates were U were interlinked then and added to DD -

Me - Hi Ron,

The upgrade cases that u are talking abt in the case where the applicant has a pending 485 I guess you are talking abt interfling right? On an average how fast are those cases added to the demand data. There must be lots of 485 interfiling requests backed up between May and October right? When do you expect to see them in the demand data. Also how much demand do you think will be consumed by porting cases pre 2007 and how much Spillover and fall down are you expecting this year considering that demand for EB1 and EB 2 WW has increased

Ron - When a case gets upgraded, the USCIS is supposed to report the new demand to the Visa Office and that number is added to the demand data. If there is a time lag, it is probably on the order of one or two months from the time the applicant makes the request until the time they do the upgrade. What is unknown presently is how quickly the USCIS takes the EB3 numbers off the board. Some of us suspect that they aren't doing this and the EB3 backlog is falsely inflated.

Me - Thanks for clarifying this. So this means that theoretically even if the dates were U between May and October most or at least some of the interfiling requests that have been made post May have been added to the demand data already. right?

Ron - Yes, that is correct.Here's my understanding.

The AFM clearly says that interfiling can only be completed when the PD for EB2 is Current.

As far as I am aware, the only means for USCIS to update DOS is by requesting a visa for the case through the IVAMS system (Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System).

If the PD is Current the visa is issued immediately, otherwise it is added to the Demand Data.

When people send their interfiling letters, USCIS can consolidate the A-file with all the information.

If the PD for EB2 is not Current for the case, USCIS cannot complete the interfiling and request a visa.

Therefore it is difficult to see how these cases can be part of the Demand Data.

In contrast, a normal (non porting) EB2 can only have an I-485 if the date was current at some time, no interfiling is involved and the visa request can be made when it is pre-adjudicated.

Unless, USCIS and DOS have some other communication method, which seems unlikely given CO has said he doesn't know how much "upgrading" there is, then it is difficult to see how the cases with a PD of 01SEP04 or later that became ready to interfile since EB2-I became Unavailable in June 2012 can be included in the Demand Data.

[sbhagwat2000]

Here's my understanding.

The AFM clearly says that interfiling can only be completed when the PD for EB2 is Current.

As far as I am aware, the only means for USCIS to update DOS is by requesting a visa for the case through the IVAMS system (Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System).

If the PD is Current the visa is issued immediately, otherwise it is added to the Demand Data.

When people send their interfiling letters, USCIS can consolidate the A-file with all the information.

If the PD for EB2 is not Current for the case, USCIS cannot complete the interfiling and request a visa.

Therefore it is difficult to see how these cases can be part of the Demand Data.

In contrast, a normal (non porting) EB2 can only have an I-485 if the date was current at some time, no interfiling is involved and the visa request can be made when it is pre-adjudicated.

Unless, USCIS and DOS have some other communication method, which seems unlikely given CO has said he doesn't know how much "upgrading" there is, then it is difficult to see how the cases with a PD of 01SEP04 or later that became ready to interfile since EB2-I became Unavailable in June 2012 can be included in the Demand Data.

Thanks Spec - I see the light now. So a couple of more questions -

1. So this means the increase in DD that we have seen pre 2007 is all cause of interfilings completed for pre sept 2004 requests right?

2. Can DOS assign more visas than allowed per month? As you are saying they approved 900 applications - can they assign more than 250 visa numbers?

3. If the numbers you are talking about are true then actually EB2I will be U next quarter as 2800 will be filled up quickly only by pre sept 2004 numbers.

4. Do you think we will see less numbers pre sept 2004 as USCIS works through what would have been essentially last fiscal's approvals

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec - I see the light now. So a couple of more questions -

1. So this means the increase in DD that we have seen pre 2007 is all cause of interfilings completed for pre sept 2004 requests right?

Until I see evidence to the contrary, I have to assume so. For instance, if there is a big increase in the numbers for 2005-2006 in the next Demand Data, it would indicate that cases later than the Cut Off Date are being pre-adjudicated and a visa requested. Those would have to be mainly porting cases and it would answer the question.

2. Can DOS assign more visas than allowed per month? As you are saying they approved 900 applications - can they assign more than 250 visa numbers?

The constraint is 27% of ALL EB visas per quarter, which is 37,800 visas. There is nothing to stop over allocation in a particular Category if the total remains within the limit. For instance, EB1 is quite low at present.

3. If the numbers you are talking about are true then actually EB2I will be U next quarter as 2800 will be filled up quickly only by pre sept 2004 numbers.

Not necessarily. I doubt 2.8k will be reached by the end of Q1. Also, there is nothing to stop CO releasing some spillover if he is so inclined.

4. Do you think we will see less numbers pre sept 2004 as USCIS works through what would have been essentially last fiscal's approvals

Yes. There is already evidence of that. In October, there were 40 Trackitt approvals in EB2-I. So far in November, there have only been 4.Answers in-line.

[Spectator]

I thought it might be useful to occasionally post the Trackitt approvals by PD as both EB2-I and EB2-WW go through a period following retrogression.

Since EB2-P and EB2-M data is not very reliable, I have only shown EB2-ROW data.

The figures include EB2-NIW.

EB2-ROW

PD -------- 2007 -- 2008 -- 2009 -- 2010 -- 2011 -- 2012 -- Total
October ------ 3 ----- 1 ----- 3 ----- 3 --- 58 ------ 0 ----- 68
November ----- 2 ----- 2 ----- 2 ----- 4 --- 11 ----- 39 ----- 60
Total -------- 5 ----- 3 ----- 5 ----- 7 --- 69 ----- 39 ---- 128

About a further 150 EB2-ROW cases and 50 EB2-NIW-ROW cases with PD of 2011 or 2012 remain pending on Trackitt. Not all will ever be updated. Nonetheless, the number is substantial.

EB2-I

PD -------- 2001 -- 2002 -- 2003 -- 2004 -- Total
October ------ 2 ----- 2 ---- 21 ---- 15 ----- 40
November ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 1 ----- 1 ------ 4
Total -------- 2 ----- 4 ---- 22 ---- 16 ----- 44


These figures are dynamic so will change quite quickly.

[qesehmk]

Happy Diwali to everybody and Happy New Year as well.

Wishing you and your families all the best in health wealth and wisdom this new year - and of course a speedy GC as well.

[Kanmani]

Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/FY%202013%20EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2010_4_2012.pd f

[openaccount]

Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/FY%202013%20EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2010_4_2012.pd f

Thanks Kanmani. Finally after 6months

Fy2013 started with
EB1---14k pending
EB2WW---15.5K pending

From this one thing is sure EB1&EB2WW are going to consume at least 30K(minimum) in first 4-6 months in FY2013

[Spectator]

Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/FY%202013%20EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2010_4_2012.pd fThank you Kanmani.

[sbhagwat2000]

SOFAD will be no where near 13000 predicted by Murthy after going through this inventory. Gurus any thoughts

[immi2910]

Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/FY%202013%20EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2010_4_2012.pd f

Comparing it with last inventory report for EB2I:
Year : Oct 2012 - Apr 2012
2003 : 43
2004 : 183
2005 : 220
2006 : 256
2007 : 238
2008 : 761
2009 : 770
2010 : 339

I am guessing most of the increase years prior to 2007 is due to porting. Thus, in 6 months since April there have been 940 (43+183+220+256+238) additional cases. Assuming all them are from porting it points to ~2000 Porting cases in a year, which is considerably less than ~4K to 6K numbers that I see in this forum. What am I missing.

[Spectator]

For EB2-I

Year ---- Demand -- Inventory -- Difference
Pre 2007 - 1,300 ------ 1,884 --------- 584
2007 ----- 5,100 ------ 5,142 ---------- 42
2008 ---- 15,975 ----- 15,897 --------- (78)
2009 ---- 12,700 ----- 14,199 ------- 1,499
2010 ----- 4,225 ------ 5,251 ------- 1,026

Total -- 39,300 ------ 42,373 ------- 3,073

[immi2910]

SOFAD will be no where near 13000 predicted by Murthy after going through this inventory. Gurus any thoughts

EB2 WW for June 2012 was 2,698!!! After June no one could file. So, if the trend continues for EB2 WW then we can expect ~40K (2700*15) applications that will be filed by Oct 2013. Assuming its takes 3 months to approve USCIS will approve ~32.5 K applications. So, I doubt EB2 WW will yield anything. It will all boil down to other categories but I doubt we will see 13K. Moreover, taking porting into account we will be lucky to get past 2007 by Sep 2013.

[openaccount]

For EB2-I

Year ---- Demand -- Inventory -- Difference
Pre 2007 - 1,300 ------ 1,884 --------- 584
2007 ----- 5,100 ------ 5,142 ---------- 42
2008 ---- 15,975 ----- 15,897 --------- (78)
2009 ---- 12,700 ----- 14,199 ------- 1,499
2010 ----- 4,225 ------ 5,251 ------- 1,026

Total -- 39,300 ------ 42,373 ------- 3,073

Spec, based on 485-pending inventory(14k) and trackitt approvals(61) for EB1 so far in FY2013 what is your projection for EB1 usage this year.
I know it is too early to estimate, but wanted to know your rough estimate EB1 is going to use this year based on the data we have now.

[Spectator]

Spec, based on 485-pending inventory(14k) and trackitt approvals(61) for EB1 so far in FY2013 what is your projection for EB1 usage this year.
I know it is too early to estimate, but wanted to know your rough estimate EB1 is going to use this year based on the data we have now.openaccount,

In truth, I don't find the USCIS Inventory numbers very useful for EB1. They are slightly lower, but in the same ball park as the last two Inventories.

I'd like to see the actual EB1 figures for last year to make my mind up.

Currently I am still using the old I-140 EB1 figures for Receipts, Approvals and Denials for 2010 and part of 2011 from July 2011 as the basis for estimating EB1. Nothing has been published since then and approvals are now beyond the time frame they would have covered.

On the basis that EB1 Receipt numbers have not reduced (which is probably likely) and Approval/Denial ratios have remained the same for each of EB1A, EB1B and EB1C, then I am working on a best case figure of 35k for my calculations.

The EB2-WW figures make it comparatively less likely that they will contribute to spillover and it is not a 100% bet that EB2-WW will not use some of any available spillover from EB1.

EB4 is a dark horse - again, I would like to see last year's actual figures.

I think we can write off EB5 as a source of spillover this year.

At this point, it is difficult to see EB2-IC getting more than the 13k mentioned by CO as a best case.

[openaccount]

openaccount,

In truth, I don't find the USCIS Inventory numbers very useful for EB1. They are slightly lower, but in the same ball park as the last two Inventories.

I'd like to see the actual EB1 figures for last year to make my mind up.

Currently I am still using the old I-140 EB1 figures for Receipts, Approvals and Denials for 2010 and part of 2011 from July 2011 as the basis for estimating EB1. Nothing has been published since then and approvals are now beyond the time frame they would have covered.

On the basis that EB1 Receipt numbers have not reduced (which is probably likely) and Approval/Denial ratios have remained the same for each of EB1A, EB1B and EB1C, then I am working on a best case figure of 35k for my calculations.

The EB2-WW figures make it comparatively less likely that they will contribute to spillover and it is not a 100% bet that EB2-WW will not use some of any available spillover from EB1.

EB4 is a dark horse - again, I would like to see last year's actual figures.

I think we can write off EB5 as a source of spillover this year.

At this point, it is difficult to see EB2-IC getting more than the 13k mentioned by CO as a best case.

Thanks Spec.
With 3-5K SO Eb2I would barely cross Aug2007 in 2013, it might end at April2007 in Fy2013(coincidentally FY2011 started with Apr2007).

[sbhagwat2000]

Can someone please clarify how to read the inventory data. Do the increase in the applications for the years before 2007 which are porting applications from the last inventory include all months from May to October or are they only from May 3rd to the end of May when dates became U. So for example is the increase from ~ 200 applications in the last inventory for 2004 to 450 now reflect all applications (interfiling letters) from May to october? Also are these all applications pending or only primary applicant applications?

[DonDron]

Thanks Spec.
With 3-5K SO Eb2I would barely cross Aug2007 in 2013, it might end at April2007 in Fy2013(coincidentally FY2011 started with Apr2007).

Hi Openaccount, Spec is talking about 13K SO. Why are you considering only 3-5K SO?

[goforgreen]

Thanks Spec.
With 3-5K SO Eb2I would barely cross Aug2007 in 2013, it might end at April2007 in Fy2013(coincidentally FY2011 started with Apr2007).

FY 2012 started at Apr 2007 and finished with U. Also with 3-5K SO and 2800 of quota I dont think it will end at Apr 2007. Q and other Gurus who have done number crunching have been maintaining it will be much later than that and into 2008, I hope that prediction turns true. Remember till Apr 2007 was already cleared in 2011. And in 2013 all SO will be first used by India as China will move with their own quota.

[Spectator]

Hi Openaccount, Spec is talking about 13K SO. Why are you considering only 3-5K SO?DonDron,

I was talking about CO's best case of 13k in total (SOFAD) for EB2-IC - not spillover of 13k.

That translates to 7.4k spillover.

[DonDron]

Ok. Still better than 3-5k. So best case scenario (and with straight assumptions) comes down to early 2008 for EB2-I. Which is what CO had said. So nothing new I am saying I guess.

[qesehmk]

Friends - November donations made to Red Cross towards victims of Sandy. Thread updated - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=3382#post3382

[justvisiting]

The June peak for EB2 Worldwide coincides with the last month before it retrogressed. I think what happened is a lot of applicants/lawyers moved quickly on NIW applications to make sure they got in before retrogression. This should even out going forward. The current PERM trends do not support such a high level of EB2-WW going forward, and there aren't that many NIW cases either.

[pspa80]

Hello folks,

The prospects for hiring seem to be duller than last year (at least at this point in time) with the fiscal cliff looming on one side and obamacare/divided government etc on the other side.

Do you think there is a possibility that the amount of Spill Over to EB2I can be greater than anticipated if hiring slows down because of the aformentioned factors?

Thanks

[qesehmk]

Thanks Kanmani. Header Updated with my take on 2013 predictions.


Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/FY%202013%20EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2010_4_2012.pd f