EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Kanmani]

if an RFE is generated before priority date get current, Will the case be removed from demand, as the case is no more pre-adjudicated?

Matt, you may have to read my earlier post here first....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013?p=36121#post36121

Adding a case to IVAMS is spontaneous, but in the case of removal, request should sent to DoS with reasons.

I don't think they'll remove from the Demand.

[druvraj]

So what is the final SO count that we have somewhat agreed upon.

8-18K are the extreme range right?

mid point 13K, Should clear all application up to March 15 2008 if FIFO.

[MATT2012]

Matt, you may have to read my earlier post here first....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013?p=36121#post36121

Adding a case to IVAMS is spontaneous, but in the case of removal, request should sent to DoS with reasons.

I don't think they'll remove from the Demand.

Thanks Kanmani, I remember your earlier post.

So your thought is these RFE cases will stay in demand and visa office will allocate visa when PD gets current as the case is pre-adjudicated. USCIS will wait until the end of response time which is 87 days( somewhere close to Sep mid)/ RFE response. if RFE response is satisfactory GC will be issued. Sounds logical to me, and the timing of mid Sep also is molding really well. I hope that is the case. As majority of the cases are EVL, the replies will be really fast except attorney delay.

[tanu_75]

Thanks Kanmani, I remember your earlier post.

So your thought is these RFE cases will stay in demand and visa office will allocate visa when PD gets current as the case is pre-adjudicated. USCIS will wait until the end of response time which is 87 days( somewhere close to Sep mid)/ RFE response. if RFE response is satisfactory GC will be issued. Sounds logical to me, and the timing of mid Sep also is molding really well. I hope that is the case. As majority of the cases are EVL, the replies will be really fast except attorney delay.

Is it still the case that more RFE's are originating from TSC than from NSC. Or has NSC started issuing considerable amount of RFE's too. Combined with a significant move in PD's, this asymmetry in service center RFE's could potentially cause problems with later NSC PD's getting approved and earlier PD TSC RFE'ed folks not getting approved.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey Guru's

Does anyone have a historical data of FB Spillovers to EB Category - atleast in the last few years?

I want to know if the 18K we received this year - was exorbitantly big # or if its the closest vicinity in the past?

thanks

[NOV2007]

Gurus,

On mygcvisa blog they have predicted dates can move upto 08SEP2007 for EB2 India in August2013 VB. Is this going to be true?
In that case people after 08SEP2007 PD will have just a month time to file their I-485 i.e. in SEP2013VB. Am filing for the first time, and I need to plan to bring my spouse when the PD date is near, it looks like I need to wait till 10th July to determine when I need to book flight for my spouse. If my NOV2007 PD becomes current when AUG2013 VB is released around Jul10th, then I might find it difficult to book flight in short time avalilable and I need to plan for Medicals too.
Spec/Q, can you pls analyze how much SO can be applied for AUG2013VB and upto which date COD can progress?
Indiani/DEC2007 - folks are very aggressively posting and talking about their RFE's in another thread which Q created this morning. I hope they see this my post and see what they comment out.
Thanks in advance for your quick turnaround on my this post.

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/august-2013-visa-bulletin-predictions.html




Is it still the case that more RFE's are originating from TSC than from NSC. Or has NSC started issuing considerable amount of RFE's too. Combined with a significant move in PD's, this asymmetry in service center RFE's could potentially cause problems with later NSC PD's getting approved and earlier PD TSC RFE'ed folks not getting approved.

[indiani]

Gurus,

On mygcvisa blog they have predicted dates can move upto 08SEP2007 for EB2 India in August2013 VB. Is this going to be true?
In that case people after 08SEP2007 PD will have just a month time to file their I-485 i.e. in SEP2013VB. Am filing for the first time, and I need to plan to bring my spouse when the PD date is near, it looks like I need to wait till 10th July to determine when I need to book flight for my spouse. If my NOV2007 PD becomes current when AUG2013 VB is released around Jul10th, then I might find it difficult to book flight in short time avalilable and I need to plan for Medicals too.
Spec/Q, can you pls analyze how much SO can be applied for AUG2013VB and upto which date COD can progress?
Indiani/DEC2007 - folks are very aggressively posting and talking about their RFE's in another thread which Q created this morning. I hope they see this my post and see what they comment out.
Thanks in advance for your quick turnaround on my this post.

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/august-2013-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

Just like you said that is just another blog, there is no way for anyone to exactly predict the COD in august bulletin.
The only day yow know with 100% certainity is the date bulletin is released, even at AILA whatever CO says he can always make slight adjustments ( but AILA conference is the only time we will have any more reliable info ).

Until then what everyone believes is aug/ sept COD will land somewhere in feb 2008.

even though i consider spec to be the best guy next to CO in predicting things , he has his limitations in the data available to him and moreover he cannot "develop strategy " , CO has to do it.

I can understand your anxiety and I am even more anxious than you are but this is my 2 cents.

[indiani]

Thanks Kanmani, I remember your earlier post.

So your thought is these RFE cases will stay in demand and visa office will allocate visa when PD gets current as the case is pre-adjudicated. USCIS will wait until the end of response time which is 87 days( somewhere close to Sep mid)/ RFE response. if RFE response is satisfactory GC will be issued. Sounds logical to me, and the timing of mid Sep also is molding really well. I hope that is the case. As majority of the cases are EVL, the replies will be really fast except attorney delay.

I am not sure what you mean by attorney delay, assuming all RFE's asking the same which is EVL, EAD etc., if the employer is willing to sign EVL we can respond the RFE on our own, correct me if I am wrong.

I think kanmani is spot on and now I think I can see the positive side of all the RFes .
Now IO don't have to ask RFE in the last moment in august/sept., everything will be sorted out and hopefully will ready to send out cards beginning aug 1st.

[indiani]

So what is the final SO count that we have somewhat agreed upon.

8-18K are the extreme range right?

mid point 13K, Should clear all application up to March 15 2008 if FIFO.

10K will take to Feb 2008, which CO described as best case scenario ( atleast thats the way i understood)

[qesehmk]

Nov2007,

There are many copycat blogs who try to do what we try to do here and we certainly wish them the best. Personally I would not read too much into such predictions on other sites - for the simple reason that they lack original content, rigor, open and collaborative analysis.

I am yet to see any other blog that has a collective open and transparent way of predictions/analysis as this blog has. And most of these blogs follow us - not the other way round.


Gurus,

On mygcvisa blog they have predicted dates can move upto 08SEP2007 for EB2 India in August2013 VB. Is this going to be true?
In that case people after 08SEP2007 PD will have just a month time to file their I-485 i.e. in SEP2013VB. Am filing for the first time, and I need to plan to bring my spouse when the PD date is near, it looks like I need to wait till 10th July to determine when I need to book flight for my spouse. If my NOV2007 PD becomes current when AUG2013 VB is released around Jul10th, then I might find it difficult to book flight in short time avalilable and I need to plan for Medicals too.
Spec/Q, can you pls analyze how much SO can be applied for AUG2013VB and upto which date COD can progress?
Indiani/DEC2007 - folks are very aggressively posting and talking about their RFE's in another thread which Q created this morning. I hope they see this my post and see what they comment out.
Thanks in advance for your quick turnaround on my this post.

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/august-2013-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

[MATT2012]

I am not sure what you mean by attorney delay, assuming all RFE's asking the same which is EVL, EAD etc., if the employer is willing to sign EVL we can respond the RFE on our own, correct me if I am wrong.

I think kanmani is spot on and now I think I can see the positive side of all the RFes .
Now IO don't have to ask RFE in the last moment in august/sept., everything will be sorted out and hopefully will ready to send out cards beginning aug 1st.

Many employers will not let the individuals respond directly other than through the corporate immigration attorney. But as you said some will be comfortable in responding to EVL RFE directly without an attorney.

I also think Kanmani is correct and the approach helps with the fairness of the process.

Spec/Viz: Any thoughts on visa allocation while pending RFE response?

[Spectator]

Hey Guru's

Does anyone have a historical data of FB Spillovers to EB Category - atleast in the last few years?

I want to know if the 18K we received this year - was exorbitantly big # or if its the closest vicinity in the past?

thanksSeekingGC2013,

FY2013 -- 18,000 or thereabouts
FY2012 --- 4,951
FY2011 ------- 0
FY2010 -- 10,657
FY2009 ------- 0
FY2008 -- 22,704

[Niksammy]

Advance Parole - Class of Admission

Gurus,

I need to renew my Advance Parole document and I have a question regarding 'Class of Admission' on form I-131.

I last entered USA in April 2010 on a H1 B visa. My H1 B visa expired in Aug 2011 and since then, I have been working on EAD based on my pending I-485 (AOS).

My question is, what information should I enter in question number 3 on Form i-131(Class of Action) :
- The status on which I entered US last time (which would be H1-B)
- Current status (which is AoS)

Appreciate any help in this regard.

PS: I had asked this question in Advanced Parole forum 2 days ago, but since not as many people visit that section of the blog, I decided to post it here. Please feel free to remove it.

[wheeler234]

Gurus, my PD is Feb-5th 2008, Any thoughts on PD for Aug/Sep VB? I missed the boat last time and I am very anxious if the PD in Aug/Sep will cross this date.

[vizcard]

Many employers will not let the individuals respond directly other than through the corporate immigration attorney. But as you said some will be comfortable in responding to EVL RFE directly without an attorney.

I also think Kanmani is correct and the approach helps with the fairness of the process.

Spec/Viz: Any thoughts on visa allocation while pending RFE response?

I think the way Kanmani portrays it is possibly the most likely scenario. As I pointed out in a previous post, there is a risk of wastage though. Blocking visas in the hope that RFEs are processed in time is a leap of faith. Giving the timing, the "unblocking" of visas would be after the Oct VB is released which is the next fiscal year. There are two viable scenarios
1. there is enough demand even without RFEs to consume any "unblocked" visas (the more likely scenario)
2. there is enough CP demand to consume these "unblocked" visas

Ofcourse, if a person is current, doesn't have a RFE and doesn't get a GC will be mighty pissed and I can see grounds for a lawsuit there. God knows I would probably do it or yell at my Senator.

[indiani]

Gurus, my PD is Feb-5th 2008, Any thoughts on PD for Aug/Sep VB? I missed the boat last time and I am very anxious if the PD in Aug/Sep will cross this date.

99% your PD will be current

[indiani]

I think the way Kanmani portrays it is possibly the most likely scenario. As I pointed out in a previous post, there is a risk of wastage though. Blocking visas in the hope that RFEs are processed in time is a leap of faith. Giving the timing, the "unblocking" of visas would be after the Oct VB is released which is the next fiscal year. There are two viable scenarios
1. there is enough demand even without RFEs to consume any "unblocked" visas (the more likely scenario)
2. there is enough CP demand to consume these "unblocked" visas

Ofcourse, if a person is current, doesn't have a RFE and doesn't get a GC will be mighty pissed and I can see grounds for a lawsuit there. God knows I would probably do it or yell at my Senator.

Suing is not something we usually resort to for the fear of re-purscussions, as the burden of proof is on us to "prove beyond reasonable doubt" that we are eligible and we do not have the "RIGHT " for GC, it is just a privilege.
senator's or congressman's office is best bet when we need help.

I am planning to send RFE today or tomorrow to lawyer and they will overnight fedex to uscis ( Its dallas address ).

so I hope atleast mine should be ready to go when the dates move in august / sept.

[MATT2012]

I think the way Kanmani portrays it is possibly the most likely scenario. As I pointed out in a previous post, there is a risk of wastage though. Blocking visas in the hope that RFEs are processed in time is a leap of faith. Giving the timing, the "unblocking" of visas would be after the Oct VB is released which is the next fiscal year. There are two viable scenarios
1. there is enough demand even without RFEs to consume any "unblocked" visas (the more likely scenario)
2. there is enough CP demand to consume these "unblocked" visas

Ofcourse, if a person is current, doesn't have a RFE and doesn't get a GC will be mighty pissed and I can see grounds for a lawsuit there. God knows I would probably do it or yell at my Senator.

Thanks Viz, I do think Kanmani's view point is fair and most probable scenario but was not sure about the legality of it, just because the RFEs happened before VB is compiled. I think between the agencies, they would have figured a way to manage the same.

Regarding the demand until the cutoff date movement- The law firm guessing of PD movement until August 2008 according to me is a stretch, and was not sure how porting cases are accounted in the scenario. I am hoping CO is not too aggressive where by leaving some cases un-approved where PD is current. Though, I would love to see movement surpassing our most optimistic scenarios, if visas are available.

[erikbond101]

Q,
You are 100% right. When these guys started the blog in September it was all wild prediction and copy/paste from different website including USCIS/DHS. Now they understand a bit and writing like a law firm that COD will be Sept 8 2007" . My own assumption says that they come to Q's website and then write the article. They do not have any original analysis.
It causes anguish to me that they are playing with people sentiments.


Nov2007,

There are many copycat blogs who try to do what we try to do here and we certainly wish them the best. Personally I would not read too much into such predictions on other sites - for the simple reason that they lack original content, rigor, open and collaborative analysis.

I am yet to see any other blog that has a collective open and transparent way of predictions/analysis as this blog has. And most of these blogs follow us - not the other way round.

[Spectator]

If the dates are going to move "best case" to Feb 2008 then why issue RFE's for any date beyond Feb 2008. Is it random or is there any logic behind it?There are very few cases beyond March 2008 that have received a RFE, judging by the information available.

If I were USCIS, I would build in a small contingency as well in case DOS moved the dates a little more. March only represents about 1.3k extra cases.

[desitiger]

There are very few cases beyond March 2008 that have received a RFE, judging by the information available.

If I were USCIS, I would build in a small contingency as well in case DOS moved the dates a little more. March only represents about 1.3k extra cases.


Not sure what the breakdown is between pre-March 2008 and March+Post March 2008 cases that have received RFE. The sample set that is available to us is from trackitt or this forum, which may or may not be right representation of the complete set. I am not trying to argue for the dates to move beyond March, I would love if they go beyond march but I am just trying to understand the logic that why would someone issue an RFE beyond x date when you know that x is the max you can go to. I understand x+1 move to build up some buffer in case all RFE's dont get a response but dont understand why would you do x+10. This gives me two indications:
1) The automated system that is or was generating the RFEs was not given a End date and was only given some other parameters/conditions.
2) There is something missing that we dont understand.

[Spectator]

Not sure what the breakdown is between pre-March 2008 and March+Post March 2008 cases that have received RFE. The sample set that is available to us is from trackitt or this forum, which may or may not be right representation of the complete set. I am not trying to argue for the dates to move beyond March, I would love if they go beyond march but I am just trying to understand the logic that why would someone issue an RFE beyond x date when you know that x is the max you can go to. I understand x+1 move to build up some buffer in case all RFE's dont get a response but dont understand why would you do x+10. This gives me two indications:
1) The automated system that is or was generating the RFEs was not given a End date and was only given some other parameters/conditions.
2) There is something missing that we dont understand.desitiger,

I would agree that there will always have to be a doubt about the data set, but it is the best we have at present.

That said, out of the 192 cases I have with a PD of Jan 2007 or later, only 5 have a PD later than March 2008. That may be just noise, or a normal RFE issuance level.

It suggests that, at present, USCIS do not feel the need to prepare for large numbers of cases beyond a PD of March 2008 and is consistent with what CO has said to date (unfortunately).

[qesehmk]

Agree Spec and that I would imagine be an excellent indicator of where the dates are going to settle. I am afraid that; given the buffer that USCIS needs to account for denials and delays corresponding to RFEs; Mar 2008 in reality could mean sustainable level of date movement could be even more conservative than what we are thinking. But of course the unsustainable movement could still be beyond Mar 2008.
desitiger,

I would agree that there will always have to be a doubt about the data set, but it is the best we have at present.

That said, out of the 192 cases I have with a PD of Jan 2007 or later, only 5 have a PD later than March 2008. That may be just noise, or a normal RFE issuance level.

It suggests that, at present, USCIS do not feel the need to prepare for large numbers of cases beyond a PD of March 2008 and is consistent with what CO has said to date (unfortunately).

[desitiger]

desitiger,

I would agree that there will always have to be a doubt about the data set, but it is the best we have at present.

That said, out of the 192 cases I have with a PD of Jan 2007 or later, only 5 have a PD later than March 2008. That may be just noise, or a normal RFE issuance level.

It suggests that, at present, USCIS do not feel the need to prepare for large numbers of cases beyond a PD of March 2008 and is consistent with what CO has said to date (unfortunately).

Thanks for breaking my heart. I am just kidding :)

[anx80_]

Mar 2008 in reality could mean sustainable level of date movement could be even more conservative than what we are thinking. But of course the unsustainable movement could still be beyond Mar 2008.

Could you please clarify what you mean by this?

[indiani]

Thanks for breaking my heart. I am just kidding :)

I think this set of RFE's might be for the next bulletin.

If in the next bulletin CO moves it to march 2008 and predicts few more months for sept bulletin , then they could always send RFE's on July 14th lets say march-june ( just an example ).

But here is what makes me bit pessimistic

Both murthy and fragoman mentioned that CO felt that Feb 2008 is best case scenario. ( not worst case scenario).

On a lighter note to those who watched the game tonight, COD is like the scoreboard you never know what happens until the very end. so until the september bulletin is released, everyone can have some hopes.

[anx80_]

desitiger,

I would agree that there will always have to be a doubt about the data set, but it is the best we have at present.

That said, out of the 192 cases I have with a PD of Jan 2007 or later, only 5 have a PD later than March 2008. That may be just noise, or a normal RFE issuance level.

It suggests that, at present, USCIS do not feel the need to prepare for large numbers of cases beyond a PD of March 2008 and is consistent with what CO has said to date (unfortunately).

Makes sense. On the flip side, given that USCIS have bit the bullet and internally decided to send out RFE's limited to March 2008, this probably means they know with a good degree of confidence thats where the dates are going to end up. If not, they might conceivably need to send out RFEs to a subset of the same bunch of applicants again in the future. That would be quite wasteful.

[gcq]

What ever may be the reason, if there is always a chance that few % demand cases will miss bus due to delay or inability to respond in time. This would cause upward shift beyond predicted dates ie.. 2nd half of 2008.
All of these cases will respond in time and they all will be approved. Moreover 2008 is already far fetched. IMO dates won't move to 2008. I myself know lot of people from 2007 who were not approved last time due to USCIS mishandling of priority dates. There were a whole bunch of 2007 filers whose files were totally missed by USCIS. Instead they went on approving 2008 cases. So there is lot of backlog of 2007 cases.

[bvsamrat]

I too agree. By next month they would review RFE replies and then decide if they need to send additonal RFEs in next batch and give some idea where the dates would land this FY









I think this set of RFE's might be for the next bulletin.

If in the next bulletin CO moves it to march 2008 and predicts few more months for sept bulletin , then they could always send RFE's on July 14th lets say march-june ( just an example ).

But here is what makes me bit pessimistic

Both murthy and fragoman mentioned that CO felt that Feb 2008 is best case scenario. ( not worst case scenario).

On a lighter note to those who watched the game tonight, COD is like the scoreboard you never know what happens until the very end. so until the september bulletin is released, everyone can have some hopes.

[Spectator]

All of these cases will respond in time and they all will be approved. Moreover 2008 is already far fetched. IMO dates won't move to 2008. I myself know lot of people from 2007 who were not approved last time due to USCIS mishandling of priority dates. There were a whole bunch of 2007 filers whose files were totally missed by USCIS. Instead they went on approving 2008 cases. So there is lot of backlog of 2007 cases.gcq,

I agree that a lot of 2007 PD applicants were left behind last year. Properly controlled, cases beyond 2007 might not have been approved last year.

Those missed 2007 cases (something more than 5k) have been included in the DD and are therefore included in the calculations and predictions.

Although a final COD in 2007 is not impossible, it seems relatively less likely at this point. However, a combination of higher approvals in EB1, EB2-WW and large porting numbers would make it possible.

After all, the difference between a Cut Off Date of 22DEC07 and 01FEB08 is only 1.5k cases.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

gcq,

I agree that a lot of 2007 PD applicants were left behind last year. Properly controlled, cases beyond 2007 might not have been approved last year.

Those missed 2007 cases (something more than 5k) have been included in the DD and are therefore included in the calculations and predictions.

Although a final COD in 2007 is not impossible, it seems relatively less likely at this point. However, a combination of higher approvals in EB1, EB2-WW and large porting numbers would make it possible.

After all, the difference between a Cut Off Date of 22DEC07 and 01FEB08 is only 1.5k cases.

Assuming dates were to finish this FY @ Feb '08, then in FY 14

1. Would we 've a repeat of FY '13 wherein the dates would be stuck @ Feb '08 before retrogressing

or

2. Would the dates be stuck @ Feb '08 for a while before starting to move again in summer of '14.

Pls weigh in with your opinions.

[ontheedge]

Makes sense. On the flip side, given that USCIS have bit the bullet and internally decided to send out RFE's limited to March 2008, this probably means they know with a good degree of confidence thats where the dates are going to end up. If not, they might conceivably need to send out RFEs to a subset of the same bunch of applicants again in the future. That would be quite wasteful.

That did happen with some folks with 2007 PDs..they are responding to their second RFEs now. Completely wasteful.

[ontheedge]

I apologize in advance if this has already been discussed - how much weight do CO's 'predictions' carry? I know the best case scenario of 'Feb 2008' is being touted all over the place, but how many times historically have these predictions hit the bulls' eye? Since I have a March 08 PD, and am one of the mass RFE receipients...I am totally torn between the prediction of Feb 08, and the logic of RFEs indicating a movement till at least the end of March.

[indiani]

I apologize in advance if this has already been discussed - how much weight do CO's 'predictions' carry? I know the best case scenario of 'Feb 2008' is being touted all over the place, but how many times historically have these predictions hit the bulls' eye? Since I have a March 08 PD, and am one of the mass RFE receipients...I am totally torn between the prediction of Feb 08, and the logic of RFEs indicating a movement till at least the end of March.

CO also said that is an estimate and things can change between now and sept bulletin.

remember he just gave the prediction when prodded, he didn't give date in bulletin

[druvraj]

CO also said that is an estimate and things can change between now and sept bulletin.

remember he just gave the prediction when prodded, he didn't give date in bulletin

I have a feeling that once RFEs are received USCIS will start clearing the cases up to Feb 2008. He has included some March cases so that in case some RFEs are not cleared no visas are wasted. I think it is a smart way to do things this time around. Nobody who is not in US for whatever reason does not get a visa at the same time all law firms are happy with more revenue(at least my law firms has clearly indicated that they would charge)

[qesehmk]

The truth is - very little. He has been conservative most of the times and the numbers have almost always landed farther than his predictions.
I apologize in advance if this has already been discussed - how much weight do CO's 'predictions' carry? I know the best case scenario of 'Feb 2008' is being touted all over the place, but how many times historically have these predictions hit the bulls' eye? Since I have a March 08 PD, and am one of the mass RFE receipients...I am totally torn between the prediction of Feb 08, and the logic of RFEs indicating a movement till at least the end of March.

[Spectator]

Assuming dates were to finish this FY @ Feb '08, then in FY 14

1. Would we 've a repeat of FY '13 wherein the dates would be stuck @ Feb '08 before retrogressing

or

2. Would the dates be stuck @ Feb '08 for a while before starting to move again in summer of '14.

Pls weigh in with your opinions.IsItWorthTheTrouble,

My personal opinion.

In FY2014, the Cut Off Date will, as normal, be set on a purely supply vs demand basis.

At least initially, there will only be 252 visas per month available to EB2-I (2,803 * 9%).

The COD will be set based on that. Fairly early on, if not in October itself, demand from cases with a PD earlier than February 2008 will cause the dates to retrogress (perhaps quite substantially). The demand will be generated both by cases that were "left behind" and by newer porting cases becoming ready to adjudicate.

Unlike this year, CO may have the opportunity to apply quarterly spillover to the benefit of EB2-I, but I do not expect him to do so until at least Q3.

So I see retrogression in October or November 2013, followed by a static COD or one that moves very slowly until at least April 2014. If some spillover is released at that point, the COD could accelerate, but movement beyond wherever EB2-I ends this year will probably only happen in Q4 FY2014.

If there are no extra FB visas in FY2014, overall movement in EB2-I from the latest date reached in FY2013 is likely to only be around 6-7 months or so, assuming porting continues at around 4k.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

If there are no extra FB visas in FY2014, overall movement in EB2-I is likely to only be around 6-7 months or so, assuming porting continues at around 4k.

Spec,
Do you mean 6-7mos movement assuming a COD of Feb '08?

[indiani]

Spec,

Once we send the RFE's does the IO actually look at them " convinced that its good enough " and pre-adjudicate in next few weeks. or

just keep all the responses in respective files and open them when dates are current and if somehow the response is not good enough issue denial vs NOID vs another RFE.

The second scenario is scary as human error is possible when sending RFE and 2007 folks like me are scared of missing the boat again if the responses are looked at ONLY when dates are current

[indiani]

Spec,
Do you mean 6-7mos movement assuming a COD of Feb '08?

Sorry for answering for spec ( acting like his para-legal..lol ) but I think it has to be apprx. 6 months from this fiscal yr's COD b'cos they might retrogress back to 2005/2006 and move in 3rd or 4th Q

[erikbond101]

Sorry for answering for spec ( acting like his para-legal..lol ) but I think it has to be apprx. 6 months from this fiscal yr's COD b'cos they might retrogress back to 2005/2006 and move in 3rd or 4th Q

We need 12-13K to move COD by 6 months in FY-2014. (4K porters+ 1.5K*6 = 13K and some more I-485 that need pre-adjudication after FY13).
Without FB visas, FY2014 looks quite grim as of today.

[Spectator]

Spec,
Do you mean 6-7mos movement assuming a COD of Feb '08?Changed the initial post to make it clearer.

[vizcard]

Folks (especially Kanmani)
I have a couple of technical questions.
1. Do I have to be working for a US company when my GC is approved?
2. Do I physically need to be in the US when my GC is approved?

I have the opportunity to do a secondment overseas through my company but I obviously don't want to screw around when it comes to GC. my company has separate legal entities in various countries i.e. they are independent companies under and umbrella name. My lawyers (Fragomen) told me that I have to be physically in the US and owrking for a US company when the GC is approved.

[indiani]

1. Do I have to be working for a US company when my GC is approved?

Yes ( US employer , could be MNC)

2. Do I physically need to be in the US when my GC is approved?

Yes for AOS ( unless consular processing ).

[Kanmani]

Folks (especially Kanmani)
I have a couple of technical questions.
1. Do I have to be working for a US company when my GC is approved?
2. Do I physically need to be in the US when my GC is approved?



1. You need not be working for a US company/Sponsor/MNC at the time of your GC approved, but as a primary beneficiary of the employment based immigrant visa, a valid job offer with a genuine arrangement to start working for the employer after the GC is must.

2. You must be physically present in US to get your AOS approved. ( Short vacation is allowed)

[vizcard]

1. You need not be working for a US company/Sponsor/MNC at the time of your GC approved, but as a primary beneficiary of the employment based immigrant visa, a valid job offer with a genuine arrangement to start working for the employer after the GC is must.

2. You must be physically present in US to get your AOS approved. ( Short vacation is allowed)

Thanks Indiani and Kanmani. That's what I figured. It would be very good professionally to be able to do something like this but unfortunately another one of those GC constraints. I believe that even after the GC, there are residency issues that make a secondment difficult but those can be worked around.

[geeaarpee]

I think this set of RFE's might be for the next bulletin.

If in the next bulletin CO moves it to march 2008 and predicts few more months for sept bulletin , then they could always send RFE's on July 14th lets say march-june ( just an example ).

But here is what makes me bit pessimistic

Both murthy and fragoman mentioned that CO felt that Feb 2008 is best case scenario. ( not worst case scenario).

On a lighter note to those who watched the game tonight, COD is like the scoreboard you never know what happens until the very end. so until the september bulletin is released, everyone can have some hopes.

Based on my observation on different forums and watching Trackitt RFE related threads for the past week or so - my conclusion is

1) Looks like there has been error at the time of data entry when the 485 cases were originally received by USCIS as many derivative applications are either marked primary or marked none - triggering these RFEs for derivative cases
2) Only those 485s (irrespective of primary or derivative, it should be primary only, but see my point 1 above) whose underlying I-140s are approved before Jan 1 2011 which is before the USCIS memo to RFE the recessed 485 applications due to lack of IVs thereby asking for lawful employment status from the date 485 was filed and bonafide EVL from I-140 petitioner or AC-21 employer with same or similar job duties
3) There is an assumption made by USCIS that those porting cases with recent I-140 approvals (after the retrogression happened in 2012) doesn't fall under this as their I-140s are fairly new and doesn't need to be checked for EVL or lawful status again.

Is it right?

[indiani]

Thanks Indiani and Kanmani. That's what I figured. It would be very good professionally to be able to do something like this but unfortunately another one of those GC constraints. I believe that even after the GC, there are residency issues that make a secondment difficult but those can be worked around.

Kanmani is more accurate,

I made the assumption that your current employer and GC sponsoring emploer is the ssame but doesn't have to be the case

[vizcard]

Kanmani is more accurate,

I made the assumption that your current employer and GC sponsoring emploer is the ssame but doesn't have to be the case

As of now they are the same and probably will be later as well. I'll hit my 10 yr anniversary with my company next summer and hopefully be rewarded with a GC :)

[ontheedge]

The truth is - very little. He has been conservative most of the times and the numbers have almost always landed farther than his predictions.

That's encouraging!

[Spectator]

The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) has been updated with the April 2013 figures, for those that follow this.

[engineer]

Gurus,

How do I know if my case is "pre-adjudicate" . I do have EAD and AP does that mean I am pre-adjudicated? Please help me understand. - PD march08

Thanks!

[dec2007]

Gurus,

How do I know if my case is "pre-adjudicate" . I do have EAD and AP does that mean I am pre-adjudicated? Please help me understand. - PD march08

Thanks!'

having ead and AP doesnot mean the app is preadjudcated. You can find by talking to L2 officer by calling uscis customer service number.

i was told my app was preadjudicated back in feb 2013, but i got RFE last week.

[qesehmk]

dec2007 - unfortunately USCIS is the judge jury and executioner on whether preadj apps should be issed an RFE.
i was told my app was preadjudicated back in feb 2013, but i got RFE last week.

[vizcard]

Gurus,

How do I know if my case is "pre-adjudicate" . I do have EAD and AP does that mean I am pre-adjudicated? Please help me understand. - PD march08

Thanks!

It ain't over till you get the "Card Production Ordered" text/email :)

[Arvind]

Hi,
can someone give me an idea on when can I expect my GC?
PD 12/31/2008 - EB2I.

Thanks
Arvind

[vizcard]

Hi,
can someone give me an idea on when can I expect my GC?
PD 12/31/2008 - EB2I.

Thanks
Arvind

assuming that we end of at Feb 2008 this year, we will need approx 15-20k spillover to get to Dec 2008. So right now id say 2015 but its too early to make any real predictions.

[Arvind]

Thanks Vizcard

[desitiger]

assuming that we end of at Feb 2008 this year, we will need approx 15-20k spillover to get to Dec 2008. So right now id say 2015 but its too early to make any real predictions.

How about last week of March 2008?

[gkjppp]

How about last week of March 2008?

chances are high that you will get urs this year.

[fun4dddd]

I am getting excited.
I am at April-02-2008/EB2-I.
Any ideas guru?

[indiani]

I am getting excited.
I am at April-02-2008/EB2-I.
Any ideas guru?

probably, not guaranteed.

august bulletin and before that AILA might give some clues.

I am still anxious with PD nov 2007 ( especially with RFE )

[NOV2007]

AILA meet is on 25th to 29th next week, I presume one still cann't confirm what will be the exact COD for AUG2013VB. We have to wait untill July10th to know what is the COD in AUG2013VB. All we can know after AILA meeting is same thing like what we read on Fragomen/Murthy websites that Dates can may move upto Feb2008 in Aug/or Sep VB.


probably, not guaranteed.

august bulletin and before that AILA might give some clues.

I am still anxious with PD nov 2007 ( especially with RFE )

[fun4dddd]

probably, not guaranteed.

august bulletin and before that AILA might give some clues.

I am still anxious with PD nov 2007 ( especially with RFE )


Thanks
I can understand the anxiety but when we look at the bigger picture GC is just a small thing in our life..

Enjoy your weekend!!!

[indiani]

AILA meet is on 25th to 29th next week, I presume one still cann't confirm what will be the exact COD for AUG2013VB. We have to wait untill July10th to know what is the COD in AUG2013VB. All we can know after AILA meeting is same thing like what we read on Fragomen/Murthy websites that Dates can may move upto Feb2008 in Aug/or Sep VB.

until the bulletin is released there is no guarantee about COD.

CO's language is always a bit vague so he certainly won't say " I will definitely move beyond this month"

[fun4dddd]

I think the CO should have moved the dates for India from where it is currently. It does not make sense to keep it at 2004.....

[drysnow]

Guys, saw this interesting post in trackitt

http://www.trackitt.com/member/sarshad5

He is 2006 EB2I and claiming that after June 14 th RFE, he received CPO mails. I am not sure about the veracity of his post but its really interesting.

Admins do not hesitate to remove this post if it turns out to be just a hoax

[Spectator]

Guys, saw this interesting post in trackitt

http://www.trackitt.com/member/sarshad5

He is 2006 EB2I and claiming that after June 14 th RFE, he received CPO mails. I am not sure about the veracity of his post but its really interesting.

Admins do not hesitate to remove this post if it turns out to be just a hoaxIt is possible it is not actually a Card Production.

The actual status is - Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

The text following is needed to know whether it is Card Production or Document Production.

If it is Card Production, it would say:


On June 21, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.

If it was Document Production, it would say:


On June 21, 2013 we mailed the document to the address we have on file. You should receive the new document within 30 days. If you do not, or if you move before you get it, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.

Given the post also mentions an address change, I would wager it was a Document Production and a letter has been mailed. The person does not provide the text of the document.

But stranger things have happened.

[indiani]

even though CO is unpredictable to some extent always, what is everyone prediction for august?

for july I made prediction of jan-july 2007 which turned out to be way out of line with real movement (which was none)

for Aug I am anticipating dec 2007 as I think CO might want to make only minimal movement in september.

[JosephM]

it is going to be July 2008 a gut feel :)

[vizcard]

even though CO is unpredictable to some extent always, what is everyone prediction for august?

for july I made prediction of jan-july 2007 which turned out to be way out of line with real movement (which was none)

for Aug I am anticipating dec 2007 as I think CO might want to make only minimal movement in september.


it is going to be July 2008 a gut feel :)

My sense is that he will move it to the furthest date he feels he can surely cover. no more no less. Whether thats July 2007, Dec 2007 or Feb 2008..I don't know. The Sept move will be whatever is left over..which may just be new porters.

[Spectator]

The part of the AILA Conference we are most interested in will happen quite late on in the day at 4:00 PM to 5:00 PM Pacific Time on Thursday June 27, 2013.

No CO in person unfortunately.

4:00 pm–5:00 pm
The Visa Bulletin: A View from Charlie Oppenheim’s Desk

The movement of the numbers on the Visa Bulletin, forward and back, is one of the most poorly understood areas of immigration practice.

• Interaction Between Family– and Employment-based Preferences
• Interaction Between USCIS and DOS on Visa Numbers
• Charting the Interaction
• FY 2014 Projections and Beyond

Michael P. Nowlan (DL), AILA Business Immigration Committee Chair, Detroit, MI
Christopher A. Teras, Annandale, VA

http://ailahub.aila.org/i/138487 or http://www.ailadownloads.org/agora/inpersonconfprog/2013/AILA-AC2013-Program.pdf from http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=29445

I guess we are not going to hear anything until Friday at the earliest.

Not entirely new information I know, but the original posts are buried now.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec. Added to the calendar. Next time please add directly if u can.

Few weeks back - I was pleasantly surprised when the calendar said -- some data was due - and the same day you published news about USCIS publishing the data.
The part of the AILA Conference we are most interested in will happen quite late on in the day at 4:00 PM to 5:00 PM Pacific Time on Thursday June 27, 2013.

No CO in person unfortunately.

4:00 pm–5:00 pm
The Visa Bulletin: A View from Charlie Oppenheim’s Desk

The movement of the numbers on the Visa Bulletin, forward and back, is one of the most poorly understood areas of immigration practice.

• Interaction Between Family– and Employment-based Preferences
• Interaction Between USCIS and DOS on Visa Numbers
• Charting the Interaction
• FY 2014 Projections and Beyond

Michael P. Nowlan (DL), AILA Business Immigration Committee Chair, Detroit, MI
Christopher A. Teras, Annandale, VA

http://ailahub.aila.org/i/138487 or from http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=29445

I guess we are not going to hear anything until Friday at the earliest.

Not entirely new information I know, but the original posts are buried now.

[grooming]

Q/Spec,
According to your calculations what would be the PD in Oct 2013 VB for EB2I?

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. Added to the calendar. Next time please add directly if u can.

Few weeks back - I was pleasantly surprised when the calendar said -- some data was due - and the same day you published news about USCIS publishing the data.Q,

Thanks. A good idea. I didn't consider it for the Calendar because there is too little room for further explanation.

I think you were referring to the USCIS Dashboard which I did put into the Calendar previously. That is one of the more reliable ones for updating on time.

[Guest123]

Hi Spec/Q

Any idea why only TSC is sending the RFEs and not NSC. Is NSC going to send the RFEs anytime soon, or will they send it only when the dates become current for those applications - If the dates open in Sept and NSC starts sending the RFEs, by the time the applicats send the responses Sept might be done and dates retrogress back?

Assuming they don't send the RFEs for some applications whose application is already preadjudicated - is there a possibility to still approve the application or is it going to be a standard process now to send RFE, review the response and approve/reject, if the application is preadjudicated long time back. I have a March 2008 PD - NSC - didn't receive RFE - wondering what the process would be and if it would be completed this year. Appreciate your comments.

Thank you !!

Thank you.

[sreddy]

The part of the AILA Conference we are most interested in will happen quite late on in the day at 4:00 PM to 5:00 PM Pacific Time on Thursday June 27, 2013.

No CO in person unfortunately.

4:00 pm–5:00 pm
Not entirely new information I know, but the original posts are buried now.

Thanks Spec for helping the community with valuble information. Do you know if CO call would be followed by a Q&A (Question&Answer)? Lot of our folks want to hear more about current RFEs, if there is a QA, some one should be asking that question. Or is that not COs problem?

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for helping the community with valuble information. Do you know if CO call would be followed by a Q&A (Question&Answer)? Lot of our folks want to hear more about current RFEs, if there is a QA, some one should be asking that question. Or is that not COs problem?sreddy,

CO will not be part of this session in any form, as far as I am aware, so there will not be any Q&A with CO. If I remember correctly, CO is in a different timezone on that date. He offered to call in if the session could be moved to a different time, but AILA declined the offer.

The session will be presented by AILA members who have spoken to him recently. It seems unlikely they would be able to answer any further questions that arise.

The RFEs have been issued by USCIS. CO is in DOS and would not be able to answer questions on them anyway.

[qesehmk]

Guest ... I wonder if all backlog has been moved to TSC. That could be an excellent reason why only TSC has been sending out RFEs..


Hi Spec/Q

Any idea why only TSC is sending the RFEs and not NSC. Is NSC going to send the RFEs anytime soon, or will they send it only when the dates become current for those applications - If the dates open in Sept and NSC starts sending the RFEs, by the time the applicats send the responses Sept might be done and dates retrogress back?

Assuming they don't send the RFEs for some applications whose application is already preadjudicated - is there a possibility to still approve the application or is it going to be a standard process now to send RFE, review the response and approve/reject, if the application is preadjudicated long time back. I have a March 2008 PD - NSC - didn't receive RFE - wondering what the process would be and if it would be completed this year. Appreciate your comments.

Thank you !!

Thank you.

[Kanmani]

Guest ... I wonder if all backlog has been moved to TSC. That could be an excellent reason why only TSC has been sending out RFEs..

If that had happened, why only applications originally filed with TSC are getting RFEs ?

What is the reason to set aside all NSC originated pending files ?

I think that is not the case. NSC are little laid back.

[qesehmk]

I am only wondering. Is it a fact that only TSC originated cases are receiving RFEs?
If that had happened, why only applications originally filed with TSC are getting RFEs ?

What is the reason to set aside all NSC originated pending files ?

I think that is not the case. NSC are little laid back.

[vizcard]

maybe nebraskans are more trusting than texans ?:p

just kidding...If all backlog has indeed been moved to TSC AND only TSC originated cases are getting RFEs, then it might be bad news for Nebraska originated cases. I don't think the TSC would just rubber stamp NSC cases without doing their own due diligence.

Ofcourse, this is a total hypothetical scenario. So people don't freak out !!!

[Spectator]

I am only wondering. Is it a fact that only TSC originated cases are receiving RFEs?Q,

With very, very, few exceptions, that is what I am seeing as well.

If people whose case was originally filed at NSC and later was transferred to TSC had received RFE, I think they would have mentioned that fact.

Also, the USCIS Dashboard figures through April 2013 do not show any evidence of a transfer of pre-adjudicated I-485 cases from NSC to TSC.

It wouldn't be the first time we have seen the Service Centers working in entirely different ways.

[qesehmk]

It wouldn't be the first time we have seen the Service Centers working in entirely different ways.
Totally true Spec.

[Guest123]

Thanks everyone for your replies. Does that mean there could be random approvals again - applicants from NSC before before 2007/2008 wouldn't get it, but applicants with 2008 PD from TSC can get it.

Is there a possibility for applicants from NSC who didn't get the RFE to still be approved?

[vizcard]

Thanks everyone for your replies. Does that mean there could be random approvals again - applicants from NSC before before 2007/2008 wouldn't get it, but applicants with 2008 PD from TSC can get it.

Is there a possibility for applicants from NSC who didn't get the RFE to still be approved?

There is a chance that the opposite will happen. "Newer" NSC cases getting approved before "older" TSC cases who have got RFEs.

About your second question, whether or not you get a RFE has got nothing to do with whether or not you will get approved. The only thing a RFE proves is that they have looked at your file recently. They could very well have looked at your file, decided they were satisfied and straightaway approved it without a RFE.

[longwait100]

There is a chance that the opposite will happen. "Newer" NSC cases getting approved before "older" TSC cases who have got RFEs.

About your second question, whether or not you get a RFE has got nothing to do with whether or not you will get approved. The only thing a RFE proves is that they have looked at your file recently. They could very well have looked at your file, decided they were satisfied and straightaway approved it without a RFE.

Vizcard, majority of the TSC applicants who got the boiler plate RFEs dated 6/14 have either responded already or should be responding to it by the end of June. TSC should be able to review most of these RFEs by the end of July (since these RFEs are pretty straight forward as per my attorney), these applications should be ready for approval from August 1st depending on how far the COD progress in the August bulletin. Until then, fingers crossed!

[Thomman]

Hi All...I am new member on the forum, but was following the forum for long time...I have a priority date on EB2 Jan 28 2008. Till yesterday my status was showing as Initial Review. From today it shows "At this time USCIS cannot provide status of your case at this time"

Any idea why this is hapening.

[vizcard]

Hi All...I am new member on the forum, but was following the forum for long time...I have a priority date on EB2 Jan 28 2008. Till yesterday my status was showing as Initial Review. From today it shows "At this time USCIS cannot provide status of your case at this time"

Any idea why this is hapening.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say technical difficulties

[Thomman]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say technical difficulties


not sure...because I am the inly one having te issus and my other numbers are returning results...planning to call them...

[Guest123]

If CIR passes this year, possibly before August (not sure even if Senate passes, Congress can pass it this year) , does it have any advantage for EB2I this FY?

[qesehmk]

McConnell voted -ve.

CIR has passed senate by 68-32.

[Thomman]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say technical difficulties


The status chnaged to RFE today.

[IJune05]

Gentlemen,

Does anyone have any update on this?
Thanks in advance,

The part of the AILA Conference we are most interested in will happen quite late on in the day at 4:00 PM to 5:00 PM Pacific Time on Thursday June 27, 2013.

No CO in person unfortunately.

4:00 pm–5:00 pm
The Visa Bulletin: A View from Charlie Oppenheim’s Desk

The movement of the numbers on the Visa Bulletin, forward and back, is one of the most poorly understood areas of immigration practice.

• Interaction Between Family– and Employment-based Preferences
• Interaction Between USCIS and DOS on Visa Numbers
• Charting the Interaction
• FY 2014 Projections and Beyond

Michael P. Nowlan (DL), AILA Business Immigration Committee Chair, Detroit, MI
Christopher A. Teras, Annandale, VA

http://ailahub.aila.org/i/138487 or http://www.ailadownloads.org/agora/inpersonconfprog/2013/AILA-AC2013-Program.pdf from http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=29445

I guess we are not going to hear anything until Friday at the earliest.

Not entirely new information I know, but the original posts are buried now.

[Spectator]

Gentlemen,

Does anyone have any update on this?
Thanks in advance,IJune05,

This has been posted on the Oh Law (http://www.immigration-law.com/) site fairly recently:


06/27/2013: India EB-2 Cut-Off Date to August 2, 2008 in Next Visa Bulletin Confimed Here

Mr. Oppenheim was unable to attend the meeting here in SF, but through the related attorney, he released the information that the EB-2 India Visa Cut-Off date will indeed move to January1, 2008.

There are contradictory dates in the message - I think they do mean a move to 01JAN08 in the August VB.

[willywonka]

He corrected it, now it says 1jan 2008.

[billu77]

He corrected it, now it says 1jan 2008.

My wife's (dependent) case has been stuck in RFE response review since March 2012 (PD Oct 2007) when the dates retrogressed for EB 2 India. Now, the latest we hear is that the dates may move to Jan 1, 2008 in August VB. Are there any actions we need to take since we would only have 2 months (August, Sept) for follow-up when our date would be current. Should we just wait till mid of August and then contact USCIS/Senator etc or start following up from day one i.e. August 1st? thanks for the responses.

[natvyas]

I dont think the dates are going to move beyond Feb'08. The narrative in the Aug bulletin will forecast a 4-6 weeks movement in September which will take the COD to Feb 08 (just as in the News Flash on Murthy and Fragomen)

Personally with a 24th March 08 PD date, I'm disappointed. I was hoping that it would go till end of March but I guess not.

Regards
Nat

[druvraj]

I dont think the dates are going to move beyond Feb'08. The narrative in the Aug bulletin will forecast a 4-6 weeks movement in September which will take the COD to Feb 08 (just as in the News Flash on Murthy and Fragomen)

Personally with a 24th March 08 PD date, I'm disappointed. I was hoping that it would go till end of March but I guess not.

Regards
Nat

6 weeks from Jan 1 is about Feb 15. My PD is Feb 26. I really want it this time as I have a potential to get in to a fortune 5 company at a good position. All they need is LPR. This EAD crap is what they do not want to deal. I am hoping with a RFE the dates reach Mar 1. Let hope. Anyways after I respond to RFE nothing is in my hand. Would like an end to this but if this has to continue so be it. Wishing everybody good luck!

[Spectator]

The latest PERM Fact Sheet (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf) has been released, covering the period to June 15,2013.

DOL seem to have hit a new low for processing PERM.

With 2 weeks still to go in Q3, the number Certified in Q3 stands at 5,844. That compares to 12,123 in Q1 and 9,024 in Q2.

Denials are quite high, but that may reflect the quite public mass denials for certain Companies.

There was a significant drop in the number of PERM applications received in Q3 compared to the previous quarters. Overall, DOL are still reporting the number to date at 10% higher than FY2012.

[druvraj]

I dont think the dates are going to move beyond Feb'08. The narrative in the Aug bulletin will forecast a 4-6 weeks movement in September which will take the COD to Feb 08 (just as in the News Flash on Murthy and Fragomen)

Personally with a 24th March 08 PD date, I'm disappointed. I was hoping that it would go till end of March but I guess not.

Regards
Nat

natvyas,

Did you get a RFE to your 485 application?

[natvyas]

natvyas,

Did you get a RFE to your 485 application?

Since my application was filed at NSC, I didnt get an RFE.

Regards
Nat

[desitiger]

IJune05,

This has been posted on the Oh Law (http://www.immigration-law.com/) site fairly recently:



There are contradictory dates in the message - I think they do mean a move to 01JAN08 in the August VB.

How reliable is OH law firm?if the date move to jan 2008 what will be the move in Sep bulletin?

[venkat]

I've been out of country for last 4 weeks...missed following this forum during this time...just came back couple of days ago using my AP (Advance Parole)...everything was very smooth at the Port of Entry...

Now some good news...Just spoke to my employer (desi company) and he said couple of people with June 2008 priority dates received the boiler plate RFEs that everyone have been receiving...hence people till June 2008 have a chance...

Mine is also June 2008...Lets hope for the best...

[helooo]

Hi All
Just got email from my lawyer,he just finished meeting with Ombudsman and looks like all categories will be current except EB3I in August/September.

[desitiger]

Hi All
Just got email from my lawyer,he just finished meeting with Ombudsman and looks like all categories will be current except EB3I in August/September.

What do you mean will be current?

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Hi All
Just got email from my lawyer,he just finished meeting with Ombudsman and looks like all categories will be current except EB3I in August/September.

Do you mean incl EB2-I? Have they explained the basis for this proclamation?

[GCKnowHow]

Hi All
Just got email from my lawyer,he just finished meeting with Ombudsman and looks like all categories will be current except EB3I in August/September.

Happy to hear it. But i couldn't believable it t be true. 10 more days to go.

[helooo]

Do you mean incl EB2-I? Have they explained the basis for this proclamation?

Yes all EB2.I always ask him but he never predict so I feel good.Let's see if any other lawyer says the same.And I asked him is it without CIR he said yes.

[gten20]

Yes all EB2.I always ask him but he never predict so I feel good.Let's see if any other lawyer says the same.And I asked him is it without CIR he said yes.

was it a sarcastic Yes? :)

I doubt dates will be current for EB2I with so much inventory and CIR still a long way from becoming a law.

[helooo]

was it a sarcastic Yes? :)

I doubt dates will be current for EB2I with so much inventory and CIR still a long way from becoming a law.
I don't want to convince anybody.I posted this info so that folks like me who are waiting for long time can feel better as I am feeling good.It will happen or not I don't know.We still have to wait for next VB.Hope this happens!
I am not a lawyer and not claiming anything.This is the info I received.Admins pls feel free to delete my post.

[sreddy]

Hi All
Just got email from my lawyer,he just finished meeting with Ombudsman and looks like all categories will be current except EB3I in August/September.

Sorry who is "Ombudsman"? How can that be achieved? If you can help get more details, that would be helpful.

Are they talking about immigration bill, or recapture kind of stuff? If yes, hard to trust that they can do it in just 2 months from now.

[desitiger]

I don't want to convince anybody.I posted this info so that folks like me who are waiting for long time can feel better as I am feeling good.It will happen or not I don't know.We still have to wait for next VB.Hope this happens!
I am not a lawyer and not claiming anything.This is the info I received.Admins pls feel free to delete my post.

Don't take this personally but some folks have a sick way of playing jokes.

[qesehmk]

I think you posted in good faith. Now it could very well be a false alarm. But that wouldn't be your fault.

My gut feel is .. this movement is difficult but not impossible. DOS is perfectly capable of jerky movements. I can 100% confidently say that if they become current that they will certainly retrogress in 3 months or less for EB2I.


I don't want to convince anybody.I posted this info so that folks like me who are waiting for long time can feel better as I am feeling good.It will happen or not I don't know.We still have to wait for next VB.Hope this happens!
I am not a lawyer and not claiming anything.This is the info I received.Admins pls feel free to delete my post.

[SmileBaba]

I don't want to convince anybody.I posted this info so that folks like me who are waiting for long time can feel better as I am feeling good.It will happen or not I don't know.We still have to wait for next VB.Hope this happens!
I am not a lawyer and not claiming anything.This is the info I received.Admins pls feel free to delete my post.

Can you share your lawyer's name or firm's name with us?

[qesehmk]

Public Service Announcement:

Heloo is not comfortable sharing the lawyer's information so s/he forwarded the original email to me. The lawyer indeed says that all categories except EB3I will be current in Sep or even in August (based on a b/f meeting he had with ombudsman).

Ombudsman is USCIS point person to identify and recommend solutions to customer problems. Check this link - http://www.dhs.gov/person/maria-m-odom

I do not know if DOS has an ombudsman. So assuming its USCIS ombudsman he is talking about - I just don't understand how USCIS ombudsman can talk about date movements of visa bulletin which is a Dept of State publication.

So I would put credibility of this particular piece of information at 60-70% at best.

p.s. - Thank you heloo for letting everybody else know about it though.

[geeaarpee]

This is the worst case scenario I could think of...

Dates wont move in July (or just few weeks with regular Eb2I quota, not from FB or EB SO) becos CO has not figured out the SOFAD yet and he thinks its still too early in the fiscal.

My guess is dates move only in Sep, I would even bet it will be current for all EB2 categories and even some EB3 categories (except India) - causing random approvals and possible wastage.

From COs perspective, date movements always seems only to generate demand (so that he can save his...) and if thats the case what I said seems to be logical...




Here is explanation of the logic:

If CO thinks that there is going to be more usage in EB1 and EB2WW in the next couple of months and if he is not 100% sure about what the SOFAD would be (the way he has been cautious all this year, there is no way he will be 100% sure of the SOFAD even for Sep) - he will NOT move the dates in Jul/Aug and he may end up with around 43k SOFAD (25k EB + 18K FB) and he has to add a buffer of around 20% to it for cases that would be RFE'd, duplicates, abandoned, etc and he may end up with a 50k SOFAD to be allocated in one last month of the Fiscal. So he has no option other than to make every EB2 category current (becos as of now there is only 48k EB2 total demand) and he has to move EB3 dates for most of the chargeability areas where he is not sure of what the demand would be (for some chargeabilities he may have to make it current).

A SOFAD of 50k is highly unlikely as none of the experts predicted that much but it is not impossible either (with FB SO and the downside of CO being cautious all these months, I would even say it is possible).

Also this would be possible, only if CO truly thinks that he should not waste any of the visas. For any reason, if he thinks that CIR would be out in some form or another next year and he can recapture all the unused EB visas from the previous years, then he will not move the dates at all, even in Sep.





I know it is pessimism to the extreme!!!

Just thought of bumping up my old post...

[axialtilt]

There must be more details in here. It is a recording of the session from AILA conference. I didn't purchase it, but just throwing out there to whoever it may interest. If you do purchase it, please post it to the finest detail here :)

http://agora.aila.org/Product/Detail/1403?sel=description

[kd2008]

Public Service Announcement:

Heloo is not comfortable sharing the lawyer's information so s/he forwarded the original email to me. The lawyer indeed says that all categories except EB3I will be current in Sep or even in August (based on a b/f meeting he had with ombudsman).

Ombudsman is USCIS point person to identify and recommend solutions to customer problems. Check this link - http://www.dhs.gov/person/maria-m-odom

I do not know if DOS has an ombudsman. So assuming its USCIS ombudsman he is talking about - I just don't understand how USCIS ombudsman can talk about date movements of visa bulletin which is a Dept of State publication.

So I would put credibility of this particular piece of information at 60-70% at best.

p.s. - Thank you heloo for letting everybody else know about it though.

Q, I appreciate your clarification and thank you! I am thinking out loud here - do you think the underlying assumption might be that CIR would pass and hence there would be some movement? Last time, the same deal happened in 2007. The Ombudsman person may just be mouthing off based on history and not on data or knowledge from CO.

IMO July 2007 fiasco (making everything current) was the effect of CIR 2007. That was intentional move by DOS in anticipation of a passage of CIR. When they were sure that CIR won't pass, they reverted the bulletin back and rest is history.


Here are the dates:

CIR 2007 introduced in Senate on: May 9, 2007
CIR Vote on cloture fails in Senate: June 7 2007
July 2007 visa bulletin released on :June 12 2007.

A related bill S. 1639 fails on: June 28, 2007
Bulletin was reversed on :July 2, 2007

The decision to publish this bulletin might have been taken sometime in May 2007.

The bulletin was reinstated with applicants allowed to send docs till August 15, 2007 I think.

July 2007 bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_3258.html

E. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

All Employment Preference categories except for Third “Other Workers” have been made “Current” for July. This has been done in an effort to generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases, and to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit. However, all readers should be alert to the possibility that not all Employment preferences will remain Current for the remainder of the fiscal year. Should the rate of demand for numbers be very heavy in the coming months, it could become necessary to retrogress some cut-off dates for September, most likely for China-mainland born and India, but also possibly for Mexico and Philippines. Severe cut-off date retrogressions are likely to occur early in FY-2008.

Also see, http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_3263.html

[qesehmk]

KD - clearly remember the 2007 events since that is when I myself filed for my 485.

I think the movement to make all dates current then was a result of a tension between DoS and USCIS. USCIS was nowhere near as transparent as it is today. To the extent it was probably not even transparent with DOS. PERM didn't exist and DOL's labor pipeline was unreliable. So USCIS also was not at fault behind all the unpredictability behind demand.

As part of these tensions DoS (it appears) snapped and kind of created artificial demand (in order to generate visibility probably) by making all dates current including EB3I.

Today as all of us know DoS and USCIS are reasonably well coordinated; at least it appears so. USCIS publishes much more data. And PERM is in place with a lot of data disclosure. So there is really no need to suddenly make dates current UNLESS they expect CIR to happen.

If CIR happens - DOS will be left with no option but to make dates current just to bring all countries on the same page. I would think that should include EB3I as well. And then over time they will retrogress dates on a category level.

It is anybody's guess at this moment with CIR will actually pass the house of reps.


Q, I appreciate your clarification and thank you! I am thinking out loud here - do you think the underlying assumption might be that CIR would pass and hence there would be some movement? Last time, the same deal happened in 2007. The Ombudsman person may just be mouthing off based on history and not on data or knowledge from CO.

IMO July 2007 fiasco (making everything current) was the effect of CIR 2007. That was intentional move by DOS in anticipation of a passage of CIR. When they were sure that CIR won't pass, they reverted the bulletin back and rest is history.


Here are the dates:

CIR 2007 introduced in Senate on: May 9, 2007
CIR Vote on cloture fails in Senate: June 7 2007
July 2007 visa bulletin released on :June 12 2007.

A related bill S. 1639 fails on: June 28, 2007
Bulletin was reversed on :July 2, 2007

The decision to publish this bulletin might have been taken sometime in May 2007.

The bulletin was reinstated with applicants allowed to send docs till August 15, 2007 I think.

July 2007 bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_3258.html

E. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

All Employment Preference categories except for Third “Other Workers” have been made “Current” for July. This has been done in an effort to generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases, and to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit. However, all readers should be alert to the possibility that not all Employment preferences will remain Current for the remainder of the fiscal year. Should the rate of demand for numbers be very heavy in the coming months, it could become necessary to retrogress some cut-off dates for September, most likely for China-mainland born and India, but also possibly for Mexico and Philippines. Severe cut-off date retrogressions are likely to occur early in FY-2008.

Also see, http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_3263.html

[Spectator]

The Annual Report 2013 CIS Ombudsman (http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=44948) June 27, 2013 has been published.

I have not read through it yet.

[indiani]

considering that jan 1 , 2008 is going to be COD in august bulletin , about 8K EB2I applications will be approvable.
will most of these approvals happen within a week or will it be spread thorugh out the month evenly? ( I haven't followed the approval pattern when there is a significant movement of this magnitude ).

In between exactly as spec predicted the information about COD was available this morning based on the conference thursday evening at AILA.

[Spectator]

considering that jan 1 , 2008 is going to be COD in august bulletin , about 8K EB2I applications will be approvable.
will most of these approvals happen within a week or will it be spread thorugh out the month evenly? ( I haven't followed the approval pattern when there is a significant movement of this magnitude ).indiani,

8k is only the known demand per the Demand Data.

Additional to that are any porting cases that could not be shown in the DD under EB2 because their PD has never been Current since they interfiled the documentation. That could add another 25-50%.

I don't think USCIS can approve even 8k in a week, so they will be spread out over the month IMO, especially as porting cases may take slightly longer to approve.

[billu77]

My wife's (dependent) case has been stuck in RFE response review since March 2012 (PD Oct 2007) when the dates retrogressed for EB 2 India. Now, the latest we hear is that the dates may move to Jan 1, 2008 in August VB. Are there any actions we need to take since we would only have 2 months (August, Sept) for follow-up when our date would be current. Should we just wait till mid of August and then contact USCIS/Senator etc or start following up from day one i.e. August 1st? thanks for the responses.

Is it best to just wait or better to be pro-active like open SR etc?

[NOV2007]

Spec,

Did you get a chance to analyze the links posted in your below post. Is there any indications on to what date COD could reach in AUG2013VB? If I can get to know exactly what the COD can be in AUG2013 I can plan accordingly(I mean I can have buffer time). Otherwise no other go I need to wait untill Jul10 to make some personal decisions and then I have to act in rush if COD reaches end of 2007. Your help here will be greately appreciated.





The part of the AILA Conference we are most interested in will happen quite late on in the day at 4:00 PM to 5:00 PM Pacific Time on Thursday June 27, 2013.

No CO in person unfortunately.

4:00 pm–5:00 pm
The Visa Bulletin: A View from Charlie Oppenheim’s Desk

The movement of the numbers on the Visa Bulletin, forward and back, is one of the most poorly understood areas of immigration practice.

• Interaction Between Family– and Employment-based Preferences
• Interaction Between USCIS and DOS on Visa Numbers
• Charting the Interaction
• FY 2014 Projections and Beyond

Michael P. Nowlan (DL), AILA Business Immigration Committee Chair, Detroit, MI
Christopher A. Teras, Annandale, VA

http://ailahub.aila.org/i/138487 or http://www.ailadownloads.org/agora/inpersonconfprog/2013/AILA-AC2013-Program.pdf from http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=29445

I guess we are not going to hear anything until Friday at the earliest.

Not entirely new information I know, but the original posts are buried now.

[indiani]

Spec,

Did you get a chance to analyze the links posted in your below post. Is there any indications on to what date COD could reach in AUG2013VB? If I can get to know exactly what the COD can be in AUG2013 I can plan accordingly(I mean I can have buffer time). Otherwise no other go I need to wait untill Jul10 to make some personal decisions and then I have to act in rush if COD reaches end of 2007. Your help here will be greately appreciated.

EB2I- Jan1st 2008 ( Aug bulletin )
based on law firm website ( this is the latest and best prediction out there )

[Spectator]

USCIS All Forms Data for Q1 FY2013 has finally been published.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/allformtypes_performancedata_fy2013-qtr1.pdf
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/allformtypes_performancedata_fy2013-qtr1.csv

I-485 Employment Adjustment Receipts

October 2012 --- 5,794
November 2012 - 10,009
December 2012 -- 8,129

Total --------- 23,932


I-485 Employment Adjustment Approvals

October 2012 -- 12,587
November 2012 - 12,077
December 2012 -- 8,869

Total --------- 33,533


These numbers only include applications processed by USCIS i.e. AOS

27% of the 140,000 EB allocation that were known about at that time is 37,800.

Assuming that number was hit (as seems likely), CP numbers would represent 11.3% of the total.

As suspected, it appears that approvals had to be throttled in December 2012 to stay within the 27% limit.

[coolvibe]

Guru's while we are hearing that in August Bulletin dates will reach Jan 1st 2008 for EB2 folks , do you honestly see any further moment into end of Feb 2008 or into March 2008 by Sept Bulletin?

[indiani]

Guru's while we are hearing that in August Bulletin dates will reach Jan 1st 2008 for EB2 folks , do you honestly see any further moment into end of Feb 2008 or into March 2008 by Sept Bulletin?

most likely it might advance few months. you can wait for CO's prediction when the bulletin is out to get better sense.

[pdmay2008]

I worked for TCS before 6 years ago and I have several friends in TCS. I heard from my friends that they are collecting data for all the L1A candidates to apply for GC in coming months under EB1. This is a big blow for EB2-I resources.

They are doing this in preparation for the new CIR law( if it passes house). Even if it does not pass house they are going to do GCs for some of them as a back up plan.

[indiani]

only one attorney' s website so far mentioned the jan 2008 COD and as of today I was expecting more to share the news ( assuming that news is reliable from immigration-law )

[Guest123]

What are the chances of Mar 2008 PD to become current this year? If Cir passes, is the effective date going to be 10/01/2014(fy2015) - would the dates contiue to move from july 2014 once they are retrogressd in oct 2013?

[indiani]

What are the chances of Mar 2008 PD to become current this year?

this fiscal year, most likely


If Cir passes, is the effective date going to be 10/01/2014(fy2015) - would the dates contiue to move from july 2014 once they are retrogressd in oct 2013?

if cir passess, when its effective everyone will be 'C'. as it still has to go to house , then thru conference, no one can say exact effective date.
too soon to say when dates will move next fiscal yr

[WaitingGC]

Shusterman Posted in his website

July 2013 Visa Bulletin – This month’s Visa Bulletin contains some good news, especially for those waiting in line for the worldwide employment-based third category. We include the State Department’s predictions for the next few months. We learned at the AILA Conference in San Francisco last week that the State Department intends to advance India EB-2 to January 2008 in August and that worldwide family-based 2A will become current.

http://shusterman.com/newsletterusimmigrationjuLY2013.html#a8

[indiani]

Shusterman Posted in his website

July 2013 Visa Bulletin – This month’s Visa Bulletin contains some good news, especially for those waiting in line for the worldwide employment-based third category. We include the State Department’s predictions for the next few months. We learned at the AILA Conference in San Francisco last week that the State Department intends to advance India EB-2 to January 2008 in August and that worldwide family-based 2A will become current.

http://shusterman.com/newsletterusimmigrationjuLY2013.html#a8

Thanks for the link.

I guess as everyone thinks that feb 2008 is going to be reached by sept; murthy, fragomen and other sites aren't particularly excited about this latest prediction by DOS.

I think now if it doesn't move to atleast jan 2008, its going to be extremely dissappointing but I guess it appears the chances are extremely high that COD will be jan 2008

[indiasunil]

Most of the LAW Forums posting as Jan 1st 2008 in July Visa Bulletin.. Is it True ? As I see there is no concrete information anywhere, everyone showing fingers on others.

[indiani]

Most of the LAW Forums posting as Jan 1st 2008 in July Visa Bulletin.. Is it True ? As I see there is no concrete information anywhere, everyone showing fingers on others.

jan 2008 came up only after AILA.
If you are aware of any other site other than oh and shusterman, please share the link.
Its only a week or so from now before we know for sure but it might feel like a looong time

[qesehmk]

Friends,

Just a word of caution on date movements. Date movements are at the mercy of DOS and hence quite difficult to predict. There is nobody except CO / DOS who can say with certainty when and how the dates will move month to month.

However, the way this forum has established forecasting - if one follows the discipline of looking at inventory, looking at past trends, labor data, I-140 data etc and then try to calculate (or better yet simulate visa allocation process) - one can easily predict where dates will be approximately at by the end of current fiscal.

Given that apparently this particular piece of info came from CO (in an AILA meeting apparently) the info is credible. But as we have always said - don't agonize over month to month movement. Try to see hte big picture and understand generate trend. Nobody can ever predict very precise dates unless USCIS/DOS start publishing monthly inventory and usage.

[seattlet]

CO has given few of wrong predictions to AILA in the past year alone . Examples given below. However given that the bulletin for Aug will release in few days, there can be 25 % error in guessing on his part (my guess) but there will still be significant movement as per widely available news.

mar 2012 : CO predicted EB2 india and china will retrogress to aug 2007 in summer. (EB2 India became unavailable in summer after staying for a month in aug 2007)
Apr or May 2012, he predicted that EB2 india will bounce back to May 2010 during next fiscal year (after retrogressing it). He never mentioned it will become unavailable.
mar 2013 : CO predicted Eb2 india to have possible retrogression

Just confirms what others in this forum have been saying all along. He sometimes has no clue of what is going on...

[indiani]

CO has given few of wrong predictions to AILA in the past year alone . Examples given below. However given that the bulletin for Aug will release in few days, there can be 25 % error in guessing on his part (my guess) but there will still be significant movement as per widely available news.

mar 2012 : CO predicted EB2 india and china will retrogress to aug 2007 in summer. (EB2 India became unavailable in summer after staying for a month in aug 2007)
Apr or May 2012, he predicted that EB2 india will bounce back to May 2010 during next fiscal year (after retrogressing it). He never mentioned it will become unavailable.
mar 2013 : CO predicted Eb2 india to have possible retrogression

Just confirms what others in this forum have been saying all along. He sometimes has no clue of what is going on...

I remember last year's movements and never given much weight to CO's predictions but this time around even though oh's firm is not one of the best known sites, the actual expected cutoff dates in aug/ sept coincides with what he (oh) has mentioned for august and moreover shusterman mentioned the same.

I would say there is 95% chance that it will be jan 1 08 IMHO.

[longwait100]

CO has given few of wrong predictions to AILA in the past year alone . Examples given below. However given that the bulletin for Aug will release in few days, there can be 25 % error in guessing on his part (my guess) but there will still be significant movement as per widely available news.

mar 2012 : CO predicted EB2 india and china will retrogress to aug 2007 in summer. (EB2 India became unavailable in summer after staying for a month in aug 2007)
Apr or May 2012, he predicted that EB2 india will bounce back to May 2010 during next fiscal year (after retrogressing it). He never mentioned it will become unavailable.
mar 2013 : CO predicted Eb2 india to have possible retrogression

Just confirms what others in this forum have been saying all along. He sometimes has no clue of what is going on...

It is practically impossible for anyone to guarantee a certain COD before the VB is released. In my opinion, we should consider CO's prediction made at the AILA meeting more as an indication of what's coming in the Aug/Sep VBs rather than holding him exactly to those dates.
Based on the data and calculations that many have done for making the EB2I COD predictions on this forum as well as other, we know that the dates for EB2I will certainly advance, anywhere from the end of 2007 to early 2008 by the Sep VB. So looking from that perspective, a COD of Jan 1st 2008 in the Aug VB is in line with most people's expectations/calculations.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Once dates move to Jan 08 in the Aug VB, starting 1st of August , will approvals tirckle down based on the Priority dates or will it be the haphazard manner like the last time. WHat are the general guidlines for approvals during a big movement such as this upcoming one . Also, for those applications that were Rfed earlier in 2012 and responded to , with out any new RFE now , is it assumed to be pre-adjudicated and just awaiting visa # allocation . I understand technically an RFE could be issued any time .

[qesehmk]

Header updated with latest predictions. I am slightly more optimistic than previously. Good luck.

[bieber]

Q

conflict of interest wouldn't harm anything in this case. Hope you will reconsider your decision and continue to contribute

[indiani]

Once dates move to Jan 08 in the Aug VB, starting 1st of August , will approvals tirckle down based on the Priority dates or will it be the haphazard manner like the last time. WHat are the general guidlines for approvals during a big movement such as this upcoming one . Also, for those applications that were Rfed earlier in 2012 and responded to , with out any new RFE now , is it assumed to be pre-adjudicated and just awaiting visa # allocation . I understand technically an RFE could be issued any time .

it depends upon whether a case is already pre-adjudicated or interfile and also the service center and IMHO they randomly pick from all the applications which are current, in the sense dec 2007 can get few days before jan 2005.

Mine is pure speculation and others may differ in how the GC's are issued based on PD, I will be glad as long as they issue mine in august ( 2007 PD).

I think most of the applications should be pre-adjudicated by august 1st, so most ( not all ) of the GC's may be issued in the first 1 week ( even though when I asked spec the same question he felt GC's might be issued through out the month and it makes sense as there will be approx 10K issued ),

P.S : my opinions are biased based on expectancy bias and not as objective as others who aren't counting days for the GC

[Eb2_Dec07]

it depends upon whether a case is already pre-adjudicated or interfile and also the service center and IMHO they randomly pick from all the applications which are current, in the sense dec 2007 can get few days before jan 2005.

Mine is pure speculation and others may differ in how the GC's are issued based on PD, I will be glad as long as they issue mine in august ( 2007 PD).

I think most of the applications should be pre-adjudicated by august 1st, so most ( not all ) of the GC's may be issued in the first 1 week ( even though when I asked spec the same question he felt GC's might be issued through out the month and it makes sense as there will be approx 10K issued ),

P.S : my opinions are biased based on expectancy bias and not as objective as others who aren't counting days for the GC

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I dont blame you for being hopeful. I'm Dec 2007 Eb2 dependent with pending 485 . My spouse already got 485 approved in the early part of 2012 . I have not traveled back to India in the last 7 years , subject to employment changes with H1B and did not do so despite AP while hoping for GC approval .

[indiani]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I dont blame you for being hopeful. I'm Dec 2007 Eb2 dependent with pending 485 . My spouse already got 485 approved in the early part of 2012 . I have not traveled back to India in the last 7 years , subject to employment changes with H1B and did not do so despite AP while hoping for GC approval .

have you spoken to your lawyer about the august bulletin ( or anyone else who is reading this post ), I believe many attorneys attended AILA and they should have known unless the DOS attorney whom Oh is mentioning in his site has spoken to him exclusively..
My attorney charges upto 100$ to read and reply to email and probably as much to talk on phone and most of the times its useless and vague information.

[Eb2_Dec07]

have you spoken to your lawyer about the august bulletin ( or anyone else who is reading this post ), I believe many attorneys attended AILA and they should have known unless the DOS attorney whom Oh is mentioning in his site has spoken to him exclusively..
My attorney charges upto 100$ to read and reply to email and probably as much to talk on phone and most of the times its useless and vague information.

I emailed my attorney , but have not heard anything yet. I did hear from some of my acuaintances reaffirming the expected movement in the upcoming bulletin via their sources in their respective orgs . I'm optimistic of the predicted movement , however by the same token , I'm a little cautious of the allotment of visas based on PD VS randomly. Anyways , only few more days till we know .

[vizcard]

Header updated with latest predictions. I am slightly more optimistic than previously. Good luck.

U sold out man :) Jk

I hope u contribute atleast by reacting to others assumptions or calculations and by occasionally dropping a tidbit based on ur experience and the tool

[qesehmk]

LoL Viz. Certainly not retiring or anything. Only that dont want to spend time doing manual forecasting that a tool can do with reasonable accuracy.

Started this in Jan 2010. Got my own GC mid 2011. And trying to hang my hat in Sep 2013. Meanwhile many more people already know all the techniques I used. There is nothing really secret and I guess this forum has really laid it out very open. All other gurus are also very open in terms of what they think and what they base their assumptions on.

Meanwhile created a tool - which I believe is in a very good shape. User experience improvement is ongoing work. But I think the tool fundamentally is sound.

I guess others will continue to predict and calculate manually. I too will do so until Sep 2013. After that I will focus my time more on moderation and any other advice/ insights / personal experiences I can share. Hope that sounds reasonable to most folks.


U sold out man :) Jk

I hope u contribute atleast by reacting to others assumptions or calculations and by occasionally dropping a tidbit based on ur experience and the tool

[Niksammy]

Interfile and AC21 180 day rule

Gurus,

After successful interfiling and linking of a pending I-485 to new EB2 I-140( from old Eb-3 I-140), do we need to wait for 180 days from the day interfiling happened before switching to a similar job using AC21.

My I-485 has been pending since 2007 and my new EB2 I-140 was linked to it last week. Does this mean that I need to wait for 180 days before using AC21. My PD of Dec 2006 will be current next month.

The reason for asking this question is that I work for a Fortune 500 company and my company is planning to spin off my division to open a new company pending board approval. Though this process might take more than a month and I am trying my best to ensure that they do not move to this new company till I get my gc, I just wanted to know what my options are in case they move me to a new company with exactly similar role.

[pseudonym]

have you spoken to your lawyer about the august bulletin ( or anyone else who is reading this post ), I believe many attorneys attended AILA and they should have known unless the DOS attorney whom Oh is mentioning in his site has spoken to him exclusively..
My attorney charges upto 100$ to read and reply to email and probably as much to talk on phone and most of the times its useless and vague information.

I have asked my attorney to share any information that they may have from the AILA meeting as well, but I haven't heard back from them yet. I'm waiting for the August bulletin to see if there might be any insight from CO about the September bulletin. If not, and if my March '08 PD does not become current in August bulletin (which looks like it probably may not), I am seriously considering purchasing the audio recording of the AILA meeting available at the following link (which Spec had pointed out in one of his earlier posts):

http://agora.aila.org/Product/Detail/1403?sel=description

If anyone else is interested in pitching in at that time, we can share the downloaded material amongst ourselves and probably provide a gist to the group here (due to legality, or lack thereof, of sharing original files). Let me know if anybody is interested in pitching in.

[indiani]

I have asked my attorney to share any information that they may have from the AILA meeting as well, but I haven't heard back from them yet. I'm waiting for the August bulletin to see if there might be any insight from CO about the September bulletin. If not, and if my March '08 PD does not become current in August bulletin (which looks like it probably may not), I am seriously considering purchasing the audio recording of the AILA meeting available at the following link (which Spec had pointed out in one of his earlier posts):

http://agora.aila.org/Product/Detail/1403?sel=description

If anyone else is interested in pitching in at that time, we can share the downloaded material amongst ourselves and probably provide a gist to the group here (due to legality, or lack thereof, of sharing original files). Let me know if anybody is interested in pitching in.

I will buy and tell u whats in it

[indiani]

i tried to buy but it appears that we can't download right away and its going to be shipped which might reach me at the same time bulltin is released. moreover this message concerned me:


Attention Non-Members

AILA will not accept orders or conference registrations from persons who provide representation without authorization in violation of 8 CFR Part 292 such as for profit "immigration consultants" and "notarios". Please check this box as proof of compliance with the above restrictions

[qesehmk]

You don't fall in that category indiani. That is meant for people who would try to obtain information on behalf of somebody without authorization e.g. I trying to get your case status when you haven't explicitely given me the consent.
i tried to buy but it appears that we can't download right away and its going to be shipped which might reach me at the same time bulltin is released. moreover this message concerned me:


Attention Non-Members

AILA will not accept orders or conference registrations from persons who provide representation without authorization in violation of 8 CFR Part 292 such as for profit "immigration consultants" and "notarios". Please check this box as proof of compliance with the above restrictions

[indiani]

This 60 minute session was recorded at the AILA Annual Conference in June 2013. This product includes an audio recording in MP3 format and a PDF file of PowerPoint presentation slides and/or articles needed for CLE Credit; available for download via your Digital Library on Agora.

probably i can download rightaway, i will buy and see what happens

[indiani]

Read the entire downloaded version, nothing new, may be its useful for someone who wants to know how the dates are moved.

I think the entire reason of waiting till august is to deprive all new ( i-140 approved and never 485 filed ) applicants of ability to get GC this fiscal year as these are not known in the DD, rest of them are reflected in the DD.

[pseudonym]

Read the entire downloaded version, nothing new, may be its useful for someone who wants to know how the dates are moved.

I think the entire reason of waiting till august is to deprive all new ( i-140 approved and never 485 filed ) applicants of ability to get GC this fiscal year as these are not known in the DD, rest of them are reflected in the DD.

Thanks indiani for providing feedback on the downloaded version. It is disappointing to hear that there is not much information about future projections. The AILA download link says the following:

------------------------
"The movement of the numbers on the Visa Bulletin, forward and back, is one of the most poorly understood areas of immigration practice. Primary sources from the U.S. Department of State (DOS) will provide insight into the following:

-Interaction Between Family¡V and Employment-Based Preferences
-Interaction Between USCIS and DOS on Visa Numbers
-Charting the Interaction
-FY 2014 Projections and Beyond..."
------------------------

I would have thought they might have at least spent some time talking about the last point (2014 projections).

Let's hope CO includes some additional information in the Aug bulletin.

[indiani]

Thanks indiani for providing feedback on the downloaded version. It is disappointing to hear that there is not much information about future projections. The AILA download link says the following:

------------------------
"The movement of the numbers on the Visa Bulletin, forward and back, is one of the most poorly understood areas of immigration practice. Primary sources from the U.S. Department of State (DOS) will provide insight into the following:

-Interaction Between Family¡V and Employment-Based Preferences
-Interaction Between USCIS and DOS on Visa Numbers
-Charting the Interaction
-FY 2014 Projections and Beyond..."
------------------------

I would have thought they might have at least spent some time talking about the last point (2014 projections).

Let's hope CO includes some additional information in the Aug bulletin.

The slides are pretty good in explaining how the process works, for eg: 140 approved and just waiting to apply 485 cases will not be reflected in DD, and EB3 and EB2 are counted twice, FB spillover etc.,
But spec probably knows everything thats there and even more.
It just didn't have the PD of august
the audio will be released a week from now and I dont know why they start selling it now when the audio is not yet uploaded.

[NOV2007]

Indiani,

We greately appreciate your effort to help this forum and for people who are desperately waiting for their turn to get GC. I have been following your posts along with Gurus who post their thoughts here. But you tend to be very pessimistic in all your posts till last week. After AILA meeting when you started saying in next VB its going to be JAN2008, I was very happy to hear it from you. And I just blindly went ahead and booked flight tickets for my spouse. Otherwise I was just thinking let me plan after I see the VB which is scheduled to be next week. Even if COD doesn't move to Jan2008, nothing to blame upon, its just my confidence on your say that its going to be Jan2008 in next week VB.


The slides are pretty good in explaining how the process works, for eg: 140 approved and just waiting to apply 485 cases will not be reflected in DD, and EB3 and EB2 are counted twice, FB spillover etc.,
But spec probably knows everything thats there and even more.
It just didn't have the PD of august
the audio will be released a week from now and I dont know why they start selling it now when the audio is not yet uploaded.

[indiani]

Indiani,

We greately appreciate your effort to help this forum and for people who are desperately waiting for their turn to get GC. I have been following your posts along with Gurus who post their thoughts here. But you tend to be very pessimistic in all your posts till last week. After AILA meeting when you started saying in next VB its going to be JAN2008, I was very happy to hear it from you. And I just blindly went ahead and booked flight tickets for my spouse. Otherwise I was just thinking let me plan after I see the VB which is scheduled to be next week. Even if COD doesn't move to Jan2008, nothing to blame upon, its just my confidence on your say that its going to be Jan2008 in next week VB.

Thanks for ur kind words. My information is based on 2 sources shusterman and Oh.
moreover we didn't hear any other contradictory source and also logically thinking even before this prediction came , in my posts I have mentioned that august bulletin should clear upto end of 2007.
Bought the aila conference audio but unfortunately it will be available to hear a week from now.
The PDF version didnt mention august bulletin.
either me or anyone else can only gather data, understand process and apply logic, some like spec are far better than others . so until we see the bulletin there is no 100% guarantee.

"Update (June 27): EB2 India is expected to reach Jan 1, 2008 in the Aug VB." from blog.mygcvisa. , not sure if they also got this info from Oh or some other source

[Mini Kumar]

Information regarding the AILA conference on EB2 has been posted on
http://www.jackson-hertogs.com/?m=2013

[indiani]

Information regarding the AILA conference on EB2 has been posted on
http://www.jackson-hertogs.com/?m=2013

I think with this confirmation of AILA conference prediction from DOS , it appears that its 99% certain that dates will move to jan 2008 in august.

I will be just waiting for the card production e-mail in august.

I made a futile attempt to know abt AILA conference by buying their audio-files but even though they are selling now, the files are not yet uploaded ( available 2 weeks from the event )

[desitiger]

I think with this confirmation of AILA conference prediction from DOS , it appears that its 99% certain that dates will move to jan 2008 in august.

I will be just waiting for the card production e-mail in august.

I made a futile attempt to know abt AILA conference by buying their audio-files but even though they are selling now, the files are not yet uploaded ( available 2 weeks from the event )

I hope the dates move beyond March 2008. At least I can get an EAD.

[indiani]

I hope the dates move beyond March 2008. At least I can get an EAD.

perhaps either on 8th or 9th the bulletin with COD and prediction for sept will be there.
last month surprisingly bulletin came out on 7th few hrs after the DD.
so i expect the bulletin could be released few hrs to max. 1 day after DD released

[Vkkpnm]

Hi,
My PD is Dec 2007, I could not file i485 so far. Is there a possibility of getting GC this year or I have to settle with EAD only.

When will I be getting GC otherwise?

[indiani]

Hi,
My PD is Dec 2007, I could not file i485 so far. Is there a possibility of getting GC this year or I have to settle with EAD only.

When will I be getting GC otherwise?

there is small percentage of chance you will get GC in 60 days even when they retrogress but if they don't retrogress for 1-2 months ( oct, nov )you have 99% chance of GC.

I spoke with my attorney who attended AILA and she confirmed the jan 2008 date ( have to pay for the call but thought worth it ).

[chewbaca]

My pd is jan 10 2008. If cod is jan 1 2008 can I still apply?
If not what are the chances of jan 10 being current in sept?

[indiani]

My pd is jan 10 2008. If cod is jan 1 2008 can I still apply?
If not what are the chances of jan 10 being current in sept?

I think jan is well known fact but exact date no one knows, could be feb 1 also.
if turns out to be jan 1, u cant apply

[chewbaca]

Thanks indiani for answering.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Indiani

[gcpursuit]

I have an EB2I PD of june 2009 and haven't been able to I-485 yet. I chose CP and was documentarily qualified last time but the interview did not happen due to retrogression. I changed employers and they started my GC petition and i have an approved I-140(CP this time too) with my old Eb2 june 2009 date.

Today I received an email from NVC to pay my fees for consular processing. I dont know if its a glitch but if its not I am thinking they will make EB2I current during September? It is very confusing at this point since CO had just predicted a Jan 2008 in August ( and a few months advancement in Sep ).

I know a lot of EB2I with earlier PDs were not greened when they moved the dates like crazy last time. I will be very happy to get an opportunity to file I-485 this time and I hope they will follow PD order when issuing approvals this time around.

I wanted to let this community know about this CP notification since there were some rumors about dates getting current in September.

P.S : USCIS had not notified NVC when my I-140 was approved in 2012 and couple of months back my attorney requested USCIS to send the approval again to NVC. So, I dont know whether that could have triggered this notification.

[indiani]

I have an EB2I PD of june 2009 and haven't been able to I-485 yet. I chose CP and was documentarily qualified last time but the interview did not happen due to retrogression. I changed employers and they started my GC petition and i have an approved I-140(CP this time too) with my old Eb2 june 2009 date.

Today I received an email from NVC to pay my fees for consular processing. I dont know if its a glitch but if its not I am thinking they will make EB2I current during September? It is very confusing at this point since CO had just predicted a Jan 2008 in August ( and a few months advancement in Sep ).

I know a lot of EB2I with earlier PDs were not greened when they moved the dates like crazy last time. I will be very happy to get an opportunity to file I-485 this time and I hope they will follow PD order when issuing approvals this time around.

I wanted to let this community know about this CP notification since there were some rumors about dates getting current in September.

P.S : USCIS had not notified NVC when my I-140 was approved in 2012 and couple of months back my attorney requested USCIS to send the approval again to NVC. So, I dont know whether that could have triggered this notification.

Its very unlikely the dates move beyond mid 2008. IMHO most likely they just will cover march 2008.

They have to follow the law and remain within the annual 158K ( including FB).

If they move to 2009 , they will end up leaving majority of earlier PD's which will be highly irresponsible.

Thanks for sharing your info but I dont make much out of it

[longgcque]

This indeed is a good news. NVC notice has always been a leading indicator of date advancement. Lets wait for more such confirmations.
Thanks for sharing buddy


I have an EB2I PD of june 2009 and haven't been able to I-485 yet. I chose CP and was documentarily qualified last time but the interview did not happen due to retrogression. I changed employers and they started my GC petition and i have an approved I-140(CP this time too) with my old Eb2 june 2009 date.

Today I received an email from NVC to pay my fees for consular processing. I dont know if its a glitch but if its not I am thinking they will make EB2I current during September? It is very confusing at this point since CO had just predicted a Jan 2008 in August ( and a few months advancement in Sep ).

I know a lot of EB2I with earlier PDs were not greened when they moved the dates like crazy last time. I will be very happy to get an opportunity to file I-485 this time and I hope they will follow PD order when issuing approvals this time around.

I wanted to let this community know about this CP notification since there were some rumors about dates getting current in September.

P.S : USCIS had not notified NVC when my I-140 was approved in 2012 and couple of months back my attorney requested USCIS to send the approval again to NVC. So, I dont know whether that could have triggered this notification.

[vizcard]

NVC fee notices are valid for a year. So it just means that June 2009 may be current in the next 12 months.

[indiani]

"Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: June 7, 2013 " from last bulletin

as last one came on 7th and CO apparently eager to move to 2008 jan, I think there is a good chance VB will be released tomorrow

[erikbond101]

Indiani..you really are an oracle...good work

[qesehmk]

Updated header to confirm the calculations last week. Other than that no changes really.

p.s. - Visa bulletin generally gets published on the friday of first FULL week or 10th of each month - whichever is later.

[Vkkpnm]

Hi qesehmk,
You predicted in the header that dates will retrogress after Dec 13. I have a PD of Dec 07.
In that scenario will I get GC in this year?

Thanks
Vaneet

[qesehmk]

Vk - I can bet the farm on that one. In other words absolutely yes.

Any EB2I case with PD of 07 or prior that doesn't get approved will have some serious flaw. But as far as numbers are concerned - the numbers will be there for the case to be approved. So rest easy on this one and make sure you are prepared to answer any RFEs etc. All the best.


Hi qesehmk,
You predicted in the header that dates will retrogress after Dec 13. I have a PD of Dec 07.
In that scenario will I get GC in this year?

Thanks
Vaneet

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks qesehmk. I forgot to mention that I have yet to apply i485. What is the probability now?

[qesehmk]

VK,

I didn't realize there could be people without 485 filed from 2007 EB2. In that case

Worst case is - CO can retrogress the dates on a technicality and you will have to wait till next Sep.
Best Case is - If you file next month i.e. August or Sep ... with 485 processing time of 3-4 months ... we are talking about Dec 2013-Jan 2014.



Thanks qesehmk. I forgot to mention that I have yet to apply i485. What is the probability now?

[Niksammy]

Vk - I can bet the farm on that one. In other words absolutely yes.

Any EB2I case with PD of 07 or prior that doesn't get approved will have some serious flaw. But as far as numbers are concerned - the numbers will be there for the case to be approved. So rest easy on this one and make sure you are prepared to answer any RFEs etc. All the best.

Q,

Any idea about the order in which interfiling/porting applications will be processed by USCIS once the priority date become current? Will USCIS process porting applications in order of priority date starting with 2004 followed by 2005, 2006 and 2007 OR will USCIS applications in random order?

I have read many gurus mention that it takes close to 3 weeks on average for porting applications to be processed once dates become current. Since there are few thousand Eb2 I applicants (non-porters) who did not get GC last time before dates retrogressed, will their applications be processed before porting applications with earlier priority dates?

-Nik

[qesehmk]

There are two orders here right.
1. 485 processing order
2. Visa allocation order.

#1 is generally by PD but filing of 485 makes difference. But for interfiling cases .. the older 485 is already processed.
#2 is strictly by PD.

So in this case the answer is #2.

Makes sense?

So yes .. I would expect an interfiler to receive his GC in 2-3 weeks once date becomes current just like a normal EB2 guy.

Q,

Any idea about the order in which interfiling/porting applications will be processed by USCIS once the priority date become current? Will USCIS process porting applications in order of priority date starting with 2004 followed by 2005, 2006 and 2007 OR will USCIS applications in random order?

I have read many gurus mention that it takes close to 3 weeks on average for porting applications to be processed once dates become current. Since there are few thousand Eb2 I applicants (non-porters) who did not get GC last time before dates retrogressed, will their applications be processed before porting applications with earlier priority dates?

-Nik

[Kanmani]

Q,

I differ from your opinion here.

I-485 is processed as per Receipt Date order.

PS :Speculation, I may call it , older I-485 is already processed with a request for visa number pending in EB3, here the Eb2 should have a week at least advantage over the former, not that the approvals should happen at the same time .

[Niksammy]

There are two orders here right.
1. 485 processing order
2. Visa allocation order.

#1 is generally by PD but filing of 485 makes difference. But for interfiling cases .. the older 485 is already processed.
#2 is strictly by PD.

So in this case the answer is #2.

Makes sense?

So yes .. I would expect an interfiler to receive his GC in 2-3 weeks once date becomes current just like a normal EB2 guy.

Makes total sense. Thanks a lot for the explanation.

[qesehmk]

Q,
I-485 is processed as per Receipt Date order.

Kanmani - I think this would be true when the PDs are comparably close (i.e. within few months max). But otherwise - country category PD will rule the day.



here the Eb2 should have a week at least advantage over the former
What is the basis for this opinion?

[Kanmani]

Kanmani - I think this would be true when the PDs are comparably close (i.e. within few months max). But otherwise - country category PD will rule the day.

No. absolutely not. Processing, I refer to pre-adjudication stage, it is done by Receipt order only.


What is the basis for this opinion?

Final step in conversion of eb3 to eb2 is not due until August 1st, it will take sometime (few days?) to appear in the Demand Data, I do not think DoS will hold the approvals of straight forward cases who are already waiting for more than a year in the DD.

I agree that it is purely distributed by PD order but they cannot wait for future cases with earlier PD than that of what is currently in their basket.

[qesehmk]

I think this is ridiculous. All of us know that EB1 485s are processed much earlier than EB2 ones even if EB2 was filed earlier. So we already know what you say is not true across categories. Then within category .. again all of us know that EB2ROW are processed earlier than EB2IC. So what you say here is not true even within category.

So that leaves us within country. So here is an example - are you saying EB2 2009 PD 485 will be processed strictly by RD if filed earlier than EB2 2007 like VK. I think that would be nuts.

Preadjudication is a totally different thing and has to do with USCIS' loadbalancing. In other words ... they would simply go ahead and preadj all cases they can when they have less than normal load.

So then all of this leaves us with the option I mentioned above. ONLY WHEN PD's are comparably close then RD takes over.

No. absolutely not. Processing, I refer to pre-adjudication stage, it is done by Receipt order only.




I agree that it is purely distributed by PD order but they cannot wait for future cases with earlier PD than that of what is currently in their basket.
Yes .. and my contention is that a preadj case is already in the basket and hence there shouldn't be any delay whatsoever.

[Kanmani]

Yes in a situation, when somebody missed their boat in 2007 and filed their I-485 in the month of feb 2012 along with 2009 ers.

Pre-adj case is not in the DoS basket yet.

[Spectator]

Here is what the INA says:


INA: ACT 203 - ALLOCATION OF IMMIGRANT VISAS

(e) Order of Consideration. -

(1) Immigrant visas made available under subsection (a) or (b) shall be issued to eligible immigrants in the order in which a petition in behalf of each such immigrant is filed with the Attorney General (or in the case of special immigrants under section 101(a)(27)(D) , with the Secretary of State) as provided in section 204(a).

Since a petition is the I-140, it says that in theory, an earlier filed I-140 with a later PD should be processed before a later filed I-140 with an earlier PD.

In practice, I think that, to USCIS, an I-485 is either Current or it is not and the PD or RD is somewhat irrelevant to them. On that basis, it becomes purely luck of the draw as to when a case that is Current is picked up.

That certainly seemed to be the case last year when 2008 PD cases were approved ahead of 2007 PD cases. There was no evidence whatsoever of sorting the I-485 cases (by RD, PD or by any other order).

[qesehmk]

Spec - I almost wrote that but thought it would confuse people all the more and hence didn't.
There was no evidence whatsoever of sorting the I-485 cases (by RD, PD or by any other order).

[Kanmani]

I think this is ridiculous. All of us know that EB1 485s are processed much earlier than EB2 ones even if EB2 was filed earlier. So we already know what you say is not true across categories. Then within category .. again all of us know that EB2ROW are processed earlier than EB2IC. So what you say here is not true even within category.

You got confused between processing vs approvals.

EB1 cases are approved much earlier than Eb2 because of the availability of visa numbers.

So that leaves us within country. So here is an example - are you saying EB2 2009 PD 485 will be processed strictly by RD if filed earlier than EB2 2007 like VK. I think that would be nuts.

Preadjudication is a totally different thing and has to do with USCIS' loadbalancing. In other words ... they would simply go ahead and preadj all cases they can when they have less than normal load.

Processing a case is adjudicating the case right? Whenever there is non availability of visa number occurs, the processing of a case stops at Pre-adjudication stage



"Adjudicator's Field Manual
10.1 Receipting and Acceptance Processing.

The receipt date is important to ensure fair, chronological processing and to enable efficient case tracking."

[longwait100]

Q, Spec & Kanmani

Isn't the situation this year completely different than what we saw last year?...last year, we saw cases getting randomly picked up for adjudication and subsequent approval regardless of PD or RD that I could tell. However, this year cases don't have to be picked, instead, they have already been picked and pre-adjudicated and now it should be just a matter of approving these (i.e assigning a visa number) based on PD or RD (approval based on PD would make more sense to me)...I see this more to be an automated process this time than what it was last year...hope I'm not oversimplifying it!

[Kanmani]

http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/Sept_CBO_QA_2008rev102108.pdf

16. Question: Although FIFO is the proclaimed order of processing at USCIS, there has been many observations on I-485 adjudication where people with later receipt date and priority date are approved ahead of others from the same country with earlier receipt date and priority date, especially at TSC. The delayed processing of I-485 cases with earlier priority dates is not only unfair to those petitioners, but also causes significant future visa bulletin retrogression given the large number of pending cases with earlier priority dates having not been adjudicated. What procedure or guideline by USCIS is in place to ensure FIFO in I-485 adjudication, and what additional measure USCIS can take to address the issue?

Response: FIFO is the order of processing at USCIS whenever possible. Cases filed with the same priority date may be adjudicated on different dates due to a myriad of reasons including incomplete documentation in the file or security check issues. The Nebraska and Texas Service Center work diligently to ensure that all cases that can be adjudicated are adjudicated. FIFO is the standard of processing. However, visa availability, security checks clearances, and evidentiary concerns can cause cases to progress at different speeds.

[indiani]

Q, Spec & Kanmani

Isn't the situation this year completely different than what we saw last year?...last year, we saw cases getting randomly picked up for adjudication and subsequent approval regardless of PD or RD that I could tell. However, this year cases don't have to be picked, instead, they have already been picked and pre-adjudicated and now it should be just a matter of approving these based on PD or RD (approval based on PD would make more sense to me)...I see this more to be an automated process this time than what it was last year...hope I'm not oversimplifying it!

for the last 6 yrs that i have been following the pattern of approvals, I have seen once PD is current its matter of luck. my lawyer believes the same.

In a sense my nov 2007 file could be picked before 2005 PD.

anyone who doesnt believe in this can wait till august and follow the approvals.

in between, i am hoping the DD will be released atleast later today so VB can come out tomorrow.

[IJune05]

I believe the quantity weighs more than FIFO. Before DOS decides to retrogress EB2I in the coming months, I hope all applicants before the cut off date are approved unless there is are "non visa availability" reasons to not to approve any applicant



for the last 6 yrs that i have been following the pattern of approvals, I have seen once PD is current its matter of luck. my lawyer believes the same.

In a sense my nov 2007 file could be picked before 2005 PD.

anyone who doesnt believe in this can wait till august and follow the approvals.

in between, i am hoping the DD will be released atleast later today so VB can come out tomorrow.

[qesehmk]

Processing a case is not adjudicating. Adjudication is a small part of processing.

EB1 case indeed gets approved before EB2 (mostly) ... but then doesn't that require processing?

What you quote below applies when as I said the categories and countries are same and PD is comparably closer. That's when yes indeed RD would take over. Otherwise PD would rule.


"Adjudicator's Field Manual
10.1 Receipting and Acceptance Processing.

The receipt date is important to ensure fair, chronological processing and to enable efficient case tracking."

[longwait100]

for the last 6 yrs that i have been following the pattern of approvals, I have seen once PD is current its matter of luck. my lawyer believes the same.

In a sense my nov 2007 file could be picked before 2005 PD.

anyone who doesnt believe in this can wait till august and follow the approvals.

in between, i am hoping the DD will be released atleast later today so VB can come out tomorrow.

indiani, you may be right, I don't know what the real answer is...the point that I was trying to make in my earlier post is that luck will have a smaller role to play this time due to the fact that when a case is pre-adjudicated it has already been picked and processed (so no luck factor required for getting picked)...the part that remains to be understood then is what basis does the USCIS follow to grant a visa number to these pre-adjudicated cases...so in your example, what basis would USCIS use to grant a visa number to a pre-adjudicated case from 2005 versus 2007 when both current?...PD, RD or something else?

[qesehmk]

Kanmani - this actually supports what I am saying - which is - FIFO doesn't work where visa availability is issue i.e. across categories and countries.

FIFO works when country and categories are same and PDs are comparable.

Where visa itself is not available i.e. for backlogged countries - there is no way a 2010 EB2I case will be processed ahead of 2007 EB2I cases even if 2007 EB2I case was filed later - unless both become current. Only when both 2010 and 2007 cases are current and 2007 was filed just now whereas 2010 was in the mix for a long time and hence was preadjudicated .. only in such extreme scenario 2010 would be processed and approved ahead of 2007. However that wouldn't be because of RD.

Visa availability and PD plays much bigger role in processing and approvals than RD.


http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/Sept_CBO_QA_2008rev102108.pdf

16. Question: Although FIFO is the proclaimed order of processing at USCIS, there has been many observations on I-485 adjudication where people with later receipt date and priority date are approved ahead of others from the same country with earlier receipt date and priority date, especially at TSC. The delayed processing of I-485 cases with earlier priority dates is not only unfair to those petitioners, but also causes significant future visa bulletin retrogression given the large number of pending cases with earlier priority dates having not been adjudicated. What procedure or guideline by USCIS is in place to ensure FIFO in I-485 adjudication, and what additional measure USCIS can take to address the issue?

Response: FIFO is the order of processing at USCIS whenever possible. Cases filed with the same priority date may be adjudicated on different dates due to a myriad of reasons including incomplete documentation in the file or security check issues. The Nebraska and Texas Service Center work diligently to ensure that all cases that can be adjudicated are adjudicated. FIFO is the standard of processing. However, visa availability, security checks clearances, and evidentiary concerns can cause cases to progress at different speeds.

[qesehmk]

Precisely ... since there is a long preadjud backlog ... there shouldn't be huge surprises and haphazzard approvals this year once peoples PDs become current.

Which is why .... if August doesn't move to Jan 2008 then Sep brings less hope because DoS / USCIS lose fine control over precisely where they need to move the date and Sep movement could be jerky.

To avoid such jerky movement ... the dates must move in August.
Q, Spec & Kanmani

Isn't the situation this year completely different than what we saw last year?...last year, we saw cases getting randomly picked up for adjudication and subsequent approval regardless of PD or RD that I could tell. However, this year cases don't have to be picked, instead, they have already been picked and pre-adjudicated and now it should be just a matter of approving these (i.e assigning a visa number) based on PD or RD (approval based on PD would make more sense to me)...I see this more to be an automated process this time than what it was last year...hope I'm not oversimplifying it!

[Kanmani]

In the above example, EB2I 2010 case filed on a earlier date than EB2I 2007 case, Given that both the cases assigned to the same adjudicator, assuming today's 2004 COD, the 2010 case will be pre-adjudicated first.


My stand is different that of yours.

Q, I agree to disagree.

[qesehmk]

You can't take an extreme scenario and then make a general statement that RD rules processing order. That's all I would say on this.
If you still think that's not agreeable then - yes - lets agree to disagree.

In the above example, EB2I 2010 case filed on a earlier date than EB2I 2007 case, Given that both the cases assigned to the same adjudicator, assuming today's 2004 COD, the 2010 case will be pre-adjudicated first.


My stand is different that of yours.

Q, I agree to disagree.

[Kanmani]

You can't take an extreme scenario and then make a general statement that RD rules processing order. That's all I would say on this.
If you still think that's not agreeable then - yes - lets agree to disagree.

Q,

It is only you, considering the different scenario ( retrogression) not me!

In general, RD rules the processing priority, if the category is current they 100% go by Receipt Order. I have no doubt about it.

[qesehmk]

Actually you are now carving out a scenario here where category has to be current and (I assume you assume same category and country?).

So the general statement that RD rules is anyways wrong.

I rest my debate here because as intelligent you are .... you need to be forthcoming to say I misspoke or whatever. If not - this is futile to have any debate.

RD rules only in very narrow scenario is what my final take is. I would never advise people to look at RD. Just look at your PD and do your best to file ASAP when your date becomes current. Forget the rest. There are two many variables in play after you file and so the processing anyway is not going to be in the order you would like. But PD is definitely what you should care 10 times more than RD.

Q,

It is only you, considering the different scenario ( retrogression) not me!

In general, RD rules the processing priority, if the category is current they 100% go by Receipt Order. I have no doubt about it.

[Spectator]

I am going to give the cynical view because I think it is pretty random if the case is Current, whatever any regulations might say.

After all these cases were pre-adjudicated many months ago, they probably went to some central storage area. They will have to be pulled from there shortly before the dates become Current.

I think of it as a pack of cards.

Suppose the cases came out of storage perfectly sorted (it doesn't matter whether it is by RD or PD).

If there was just a single adjudicator, they could start at the top (earliest) and work their way down the pile. Perfect sequence would be preserved.

That's not the case - there are multiple adjudicators, so the pile has to be split.

Let's say there were 4 adjudicators (just to keep it simple). There are several options. I'll cover just 2.

a) Deal the cases as you would cards. Case 1 to Adjudicator 1 .... Case 4 to Adjudicator 4. Then Case 5 goes to Adjudicator 1 etc and sequence is again preserved fairly well.

b) Split the pile of cases into 2, then by 2 again to produce 4 piles. Give one pile to each Adjudicator. Adjudicator gets the first 25% of cases, Adjudicator gets cases 26-50% and so on until Adjudicator 4 gets cases 76-100%. In this case, approvals would be all over the place, particularly if one Adjudicator is quicker than the others. Add to that new cases for an Adjudicator to work on being delivered on a daily basis to the individual cubicle storage area.

Option (b) is far easier and a lot quicker to do. It may not entirely follow the law, but laziness rules.

Other options give somewhere between the 2 shown above.

Now multiply that by potentially 100s of Adjudicators ( I have no idea how many there are) at 2 entirely different Service Centers. I think keeping any semblance of order is nigh on impossible in the real world. Technically, it could be done, but I doubt very much that is what really happens in a retrogressed scenario where files are being pulled from storage.

Where a Category/Group is perpetually Current, then normal workflow would give some semblance of order, since generally they would not end up in non-local storage.

Until paper based cases are eliminated and cases are served electronically to adjudicators as they are ready to process another one, I don't see how any order can be preserved.

As I said, I am cynical about the whole issue. It's a moot point anyway, because we have no way of really knowing what goes on. My last on the subject.

[Jagan01]

Hi,

I think the question asked was after considering the fact that priority dates are current. Basically if dates are current for a 2009 PD who had filed in Feb 2012 and a new porter from EB3-EB2 with PD 2006, it might be that 2009 PD gets adjudicated first.

This is generally bad for most of us. I personally would prefer that it should be based on PD. The reason being:
1. Lets say the dates move to Jan 1, 2008
2. Random pickings might end up in a scenario where 500 new porters from 2006 do not get picked
3. The demand data will show 500 pending applications for 2006
4. Dates will eventually retrogress to 2006

If it were based on PD then at least the 2006 and 2007 applicants get drained. May be lesser people with 2008 and 2009 get approved. But at least the dates wont retrogress to 2006 once the numbers are used up. The dates might stay at 2008 allowing many more applicants time to file 485 and get EAD.

[desitiger]

Quick question and a bit off topic: for a first time I 485 filer, when can you send in your I485 application? Lets say the VB comes out tomorrow and dates move to march end 2008, if I have my documents in order and medical etc done can I send my application the very next day VB comes out?

[Spectator]

Quick question and a bit off topic: for a first time I 485 filer, when can you send in your I485 application? Lets say the VB comes out tomorrow and dates move to march end 2008, if I have my documents in order and medical etc done can I send my application the very next day VB comes out?desitiger,

The VB only becomes effective on the first day of the month it relates to. e.g. the next one will become effective on August 01, 2013. Cut Off Dates in the VB are not effective until that date

Any application received by USCIS with a (PD that was not Current in the previous VB) before the effective date will be rejected, since the PD will not be Current on that date.

Simple answer:- your application should not be received by USCIS until August 01, 2013 if it becomes Current in the August VB.

[Kanmani]

Quick question and a bit off topic: for a first time I 485 filer, when can you send in your I485 application? Lets say the VB comes out tomorrow and dates move to march end 2008, if I have my documents in order and medical etc done can I send my application the very next day VB comes out?

No You cannot.

In your case the application is valid only if USCIS receives it on or after 1st August 2013 but before the next retrogression bulletin takes into effect.

[MATT2012]

Q,

Any idea about the order in which interfiling/porting applications will be processed by USCIS once the priority date become current? Will USCIS process porting applications in order of priority date starting with 2004 followed by 2005, 2006 and 2007 OR will USCIS applications in random order?

I have read many gurus mention that it takes close to 3 weeks on average for porting applications to be processed once dates become current. Since there are few thousand Eb2 I applicants (non-porters) who did not get GC last time before dates retrogressed, will their applications be processed before porting applications with earlier priority dates?

-Nik

With my limited knowledge and based on my readings from multiple sources, this is what will probably happen when EB2I dates advance in August/September bulletin. I have sighted the sources first then my thoughts afterwards.
From Multiple USCIS Documents“To maximize visa number usage while working off its backlog, USCIS has adopted a production strategy that focuses on completing cases where visas are immediately available and on working cases to the point just short of approval (pre-adjudication) where visas will be available in the coming months. Pre-adjudication includes completing all required background checks and resolving all eligibility issues except for visa availability. This allows for immediate approval and visa number allocation as visas become available for pre-adjudicated cases.”

“USCIS will finalize processing of visa-retrogressed cases when applicants' priority dates become available (current) based on the dates in the current month’s Visa Bulletin. If USCIS needs updated information from an applicant, we may send out correspondence such as requests for evidence or an interview notice.”
From SRWLawyers.com (Slightly old but still valid)

“USCIS submits requests for visa authorizations if all required case processing has been completed. Therefore, once the authorization has been granted, the case would be adjusted immediately, and could be forwarded to the "green card" processing facility. If the case is not within the established cut-off date the request goes into our "pending" demand file, which also contains the demand which has been received from our overseas posts. That demand is then used as the basis for the establishment of future cut-off dates.

When a USCIS authorization is made from the "pending" demand file an e-mail message is sent to a single address which each CIS Office has provided to the Immigrant Control and Reporting Division. The first page(s) of the message provides a summary listing of the A-numbers which have been authorized, and the following pages contain an individual authorization page for each A-number. That listing would be the same type as received if the case had been authorized when the USCIS Officer had originally submitted the request. Such authorizations are assumed to have been processed to conclusion during the month of authorization. If not, USCIS must notify VO that the case was not processed, the case record would then be deleted, and the case would be resubmitted to VO once the reasons for the deletion have been resolved.

If the Officer believes that a case should have been authorized, but has not received such notification, the program which is used to submit requests has a feature for checking on the status of individual A-numbers.

The authorizations from the "pending" demand file are sent to a central address to ensure that they are seen by someone should the officer who originally requested the case not be there (e.g., reassigned, on leave, etc.). If authorization is immediately available at the time of request the response would be send to the requesting officer, not the central address”

From THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM document.
“The determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables, including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements. Once this is done, the cut-off dates are established and numbers are allocated to reported applicants in order of their priority dates, the oldest dates first.”

My Conclusion based on the above documents.
a)Existing EB2I Demand Cases
These are applicants who submitted the I-485 application or ported before May 2012. The visas will be allocated during the VB tabulation process. The visas will be allocated to individuals but without identifying the adjudicating officer in USCIS. USCIS will reconnect the case with an adjudicating officer and do a final check before the GC is issued; there is still a possibility of RFE in some cases. If RFE is replied within the fiscal cutoff date GC will be given as visas are already allocated. If RFE is not replied before the cutoff date the visa number will be delinked from the case with the reason for delinking and visa number will go back to the common pool. Visa approvals will start from week one and continue throughout the month.
b)Porting/Interfile Cases
The reclassification of I485 will be initiated by USCIS as soon as PD gets current. The processing order should be based on new EB2 I-140 application date. Once the cases are allocated to adjudicating officer, it will be purely processing efficiency of the officer. In some cases RFE can still be generated. Majority of the processing is completed in these applications; it could take a few weeks to request for the visa number and visa number allocated. Visa allocation will be minimal in week one and two and will increase from week 3. Once USCIS submits the visa request to Visa Office, the processing will be based on PD.
c)New I-485
Regular USCIS process in application order, but there are way too many variables. The new I-485 cases will reflect in demand only in the next fiscal year.

Overall USCIS is supposed to do FIFO where PD is current, but with too many dependencies that rarely happens. Once the application is pre-adjudicated (Request Visa number), the visas are allocated purely based on PD. So if two cases are submitted to VO and one has an earlier PD, the earlier PD will be allocated visa first.

[garihc27]

Guru's,

Sorry this has nothing to do with the current discussion topic of I-485 processing priority.
My priority date is March 2008 and just recently BALCA issued an approval of PERM in my favor. Does anyone know how long does DOL take to process the PERM once BALCA approves it? I am hopeful to get my I-140 & I-485 processed in the next 2 months with the priority dates probably moving to March 2008.

Thanks,

[IJune05]

Hi Matt,

Thanks for summarizing the issue here.. I have a follow-on question on what made you take May 2012 as baseline for Category (a) Existing EB2I Demand Cases.
If interfile is completed as part of new I140 approval ( which means the priority date reflects the old date), shouldn't the porting cases be considered as existing demand. Taking specifics, my I140 was approved in Q4 2012 and the priority date showed as July 2005 which made me believe my case was counted as existing EB2I demand.
Thanks


With my limited knowledge ......
My Conclusion based on the above documents.
a)Existing EB2I Demand Cases
These are applicants who submitted the I-485 application or ported before May 2012. The visas will be allocated during the VB tabulation process. The visas will be allocated to individuals but without identifying the adjudicating officer in USCIS. USCIS will reconnect the case with an adjudicating officer and do a final check before the GC is issued; there is still a possibility of RFE in some cases. If RFE is replied within the fiscal cutoff date GC will be given as visas are already allocated. If RFE is not replied before the cutoff date the visa number will be delinked from the case with the reason for delinking and visa number will go back to the common pool. Visa approvals will start from week one and continue throughout the month.
b)Porting/Interfile Cases
The reclassification of I485 will be initiated by USCIS as soon as PD gets current. The processing order should be based on new EB2 I-140 application date. Once the cases are allocated to adjudicating officer, it will be purely processing efficiency of the officer. In some cases RFE can still be generated. Majority of the processing is completed in these applications; it could take a few weeks to request for the visa number and visa number allocated. Visa allocation will be minimal in week one and two and will increase from week 3. Once USCIS submits the visa request to Visa Office, the processing will be based on PD.
c)New I-485
Regular USCIS process in application order, but there are way too many variables. The new I-485 cases will reflect in demand only in the next fiscal year.

Overall USCIS is supposed to do FIFO where PD is current, but with too many dependencies that rarely happens. Once the application is pre-adjudicated (Request Visa number), the visas are allocated purely based on PD. So if two cases are submitted to VO and one has an earlier PD, the earlier PD will be allocated visa first.

[MATT2012]

Hi Matt,

Thanks for summarizing the issue here.. I have a follow-on question on what made you take May 2012 as baseline for Category (a) Existing EB2I Demand Cases.
If interfile is completed as part of new I140 approval ( which means the priority date reflects the old date), shouldn't the porting cases be considered as existing demand. Taking specifics, my I140 was approved in Q4 2012 and the priority date showed as July 2005 which made me believe my case was counted as existing EB2I demand.
Thanks
a)From June 2012 onwards EB2I was 'U'.
b) Porting cases with a PD from Sep 04, filed after May 2012 is still counted in EB3 and not in EB2.

[Kanmani]

IJune05,

If I don't misunderstand,are you referring to the porting of priority date in the new EB2 I-140 as interfiling?

[Spectator]

I have a follow-on question on what made you take May 2012 as baseline for Category (a) Existing EB2I Demand Cases.
If interfile is completed as part of new I140 approval ( which means the priority date reflects the old date), shouldn't the porting cases be considered as existing demand. Taking specifics, my I140 was approved in Q4 2012 and the priority date showed as July 2005 which made me believe my case was counted as existing EB2I demand.
ThanksIJune05,

Not MATT, but I think I can answer this one.

It comes down to what the USCIS AFM says in 23.2 (l)(2)(L) (which every Adjudicator must follow):


(L) The Priority Date must Be Current for the Basis to Which the Applicant Wishes to Convert .

In order to convert an adjustment application to a new basis involving a preference classification, the alien must be the beneficiary of an approved visa petition (pertaining to that new basis) which has a current visa availability date. With limited exceptions, a priority date is NOT transferable from one preference category to another, or from one petition to another.

In your specific case, your I-140 was approved in Q4 2012 (when the COD was 01SEP04) and I assume you have requested interfiling at some date after that.

Since your PD of July 2005 has never been Current under EB2 since your I-140 was approved and you requested interfiling, USCIS have been unable to request a visa under the EB2 Category.

August 2013 (by all accounts) will be the first time that a PD of July 2005 has been Current since May 2012 (when the COD was 15AUG07). Only then can USCIS change the basis of your pre-existing I-485 from EB3 to EB2 and request a visa on that basis.

[IJune05]

Yes. I am using interfile as a word to describe the porting of the old priority dates to new I140. Have I been inaccurately using the word "interfile" ?
Thank you,


IJune05,

If I don't misunderstand,are you referring to the porting of priority date in the new EB2 I-140 as interfiling?

[Kanmani]

IJUne05, I just wanted to confirm it.

Interfiling is linking the old Eb3 I-485 to the newly ported I-140, for this to happen your attorney should send a formal letter to USCIS requesting the connection.

Only after interfiling is recognized by the USCIS , EB3 to Eb2 conversion is completed.

As Spec and Matt explained in their posts, EB3 to EB2 conversion cannot happen until the priority date is current in EB2, at this time USCIS cannot ask for visa number under eb2, you are yet to be counted in the demand data.

[bvsamrat]

All clear thanks to Matt and SPEC
Now the puzzle?

How come the EB2 demand in 2006/2007 cases continuoulsy increased in the last 6 months as seen demand bulletin. If the reason is not porting? and only natural RFE clearance, then why the same is not noticed in demand figures post 2007?
which in fact reduced somewhat!


IJune05,

Not MATT, but I think I can answer this one.

It comes down to what the USCIS AFM says in 23.2 (l)(2)(L) (which every Adjudicator must follow):



In your specific case, your I-140 was approved in Q4 2012 (when the COD was 01SEP04) and I assume you have requested interfiling at some date after that.

Since your PD of July 2005 has never been Current under EB2 since your I-140 was approved and you requested interfiling, USCIS have been unable to request a visa under the EB2 Category.

August 2013 (by all accounts) will be the first time that a PD of July 2005 has been Current since May 2012 (when the COD was 15AUG07). Only then can USCIS change the basis of your pre-existing I-485 from EB3 to EB2 and request a visa on that basis.

[MATT2012]

All clear thanks to Matt and SPEC
Now the puzzle?

How come the EB2 demand in 2006/2007 cases continuoulsy increased in the last 6 months as seen demand bulletin. If the reason is not porting? and only natural RFE clearance, then why the same is not noticed in demand figures post 2007?
which in fact reduced somewhat!
Below is the summary data as per USCIS Inventory, for EB2I the net addition was only 438 cases, there will be a few more if we consider Sep 04 to Dec 04. April Inventory is very much comparable to May Demand. When one considers DD there are differences, but not as per USCIS inventory. All that I could say is USCIS took more than normal time to pre-adjudicate some cases.
October 2012 USCIS Inventory for EB2I Cases from 2005-2010 = 41735
April 2013 USCIS Inventory for EB2I Cases from 2005-2010 = 42173
Net Difference in Inventory = 438 cases
May 2013 Demand from 2005 to 2010 =42200

[erikbond101]

Below is the summary data as per USCIS Inventory, for EB2I the net addition was only 438 cases, there will be a few more if we consider Sep 04 to Dec 04. April Inventory is very much comparable to May Demand. When one considers DD there are differences, but not as per USCIS inventory. All that I could say is USCIS took more than normal time to pre-adjudicate some cases.
October 2012 USCIS Inventory for EB2I Cases from 2005-2010 = 41735
April 2013 USCIS Inventory for EB2I Cases from 2005-2010 = 42173
Net Difference in Inventory = 438 cases
May 2013 Demand from 2005 to 2010 =42200

I'm confused why demand data for Nov 12 bulletin was showing 37200 whereas Oct 12 pending I-485 was showing 42373. Both were created/calculated at around same time. If these cases (~5000) were not pre-adjudicated to be part of demand data, how come they were included in pending Oct 12, I-485 inventory.

April 13 pending inventory is showing 42978 and May 13 demand data has 42625 numbers. Difference is only 400 and is understandable.

[bvsamrat]

What I mean is net increase in Demand (difference between Jan06 to Jan 07 ) increases continuously
but not the case in later PDs(post 2008).

To me it appeared addition of 100-150 per month between 2005 -2006 and 2006-2007 and 2007-2008
which I was contributing due to adding porters(approximately from Demand bulletins of Jan13 to Jun13.





Below is the summry data as per USCIS Inventory, for EB2I the net addition was only 438 cases, there will be a few more if we consider Sep 04 to Dec 04. April Inventory is very much comparable to May Demand. When one considers DD there are differences, but not as per USCIS inventory. All that I could say is USCIS took more than normal time to pre-adjudicate some cases.
October 2012 USCIS Inventory for EB2I Cases from 2005-2010 = 41735
April 2013 USCIS Inventory for EB2I Cases from 2005-2010 = 42173
Net Difference in Inventory = 438 cases
May 2013 Demand from 2005 to 2010 =42200

[Spectator]

I'm confused why demand data for Nov 12 bulletin was showing 37200 whereas Oct 12 pending I-485 was showing 42373. Both were created/calculated at around same time. If these cases (~5000) were not pre-adjudicated to be part of demand data, how come they were included in pending Oct 12, I-485 inventory.

April 13 pending inventory is showing 42978 and May 13 demand data has 42625 numbers. Difference is only 400 and is understandable.erikbond101,

The USCIS Inventory counts cases whether pre-adjudicated or not. To be included in the Demand Data, the cases would have to be pre-adjudicated.

The difference in the Oct/Nov figures suggests that USCIS had still to pre-adjudicate several thousand cases. By April/May the pre-adjudication process was appears to have been fairly complete and the figures were therefore about the same.

[Spectator]

What I mean is net increase in Demand (difference between Jan06 to Jan 07 ) increases continuously
but not the case in later PDs(post 2008).

To me it appeared addition of 100-150 per month between 2005 -2006 and 2006-2007 and 2007-2008
which I was contributing due to adding porters(approximately from Demand bulletins of Jan13 to Jun13.bvsamrat,

I think you are looking at beginning and end figures, without accounting for how they were arrived at.

The April 2013 Demand Data figures for EB2-I were very strange compared to March 2013. 2007 PD numbers reduced by 300 and 2008 PD figures reduced by 675. At the same time, PD 2005 and 2006 figures increased more than any other month.

Ignoring the March - April change, the average increase per month (where it has been possible to calculate it) has been:

PD 2004 -- 29 (covers only Sep-Dec 2004)
PD 2005 -- 46
PD 2006 -- 54
PD 2007 - 129
PD 2008 - 142
PD 2009 - 158
PD 2010 - 146


The period 2007-2010 includes new applications beyond July 2007, so it is no surprise these are higher. The average understates the increase, since that has slowed considerably since May 2013.

In general, we can consider 2004-2006 cases to be solely porting.

Others may disagree, but I don't think a rate of about 50 porting cases per month per PD Year is high enough to cover the number that might be expected. It is probably the slow pre-adjudication of cases that were received prior to June 2012.

[MATT2012]

What I mean is net increase in Demand (difference between Jan06 to Jan 07 ) increases continuously
but not the case in later PDs(post 2008).

To me it appeared addition of 100-150 per month between 2005 -2006 and 2006-2007 and 2007-2008
which I was contributing due to adding porters(approximately from Demand bulletins of Jan13 to Jun13.

I agree there are few additions. The additions this fiscal is not significant enough to classify as porting. Given the fact that that EB2I cutoff dates did not move this fiscal suggests that porting cases are very high from 2003/2004. By that logic portings will be high from Sep 2004 to Mid 2007. General estimates for EB2I porting numbers are from 4000 - 7500. So far the additions are only in the hundreds. So between Sep 2004-2008 the additions that happened are pre-dominantly regrouping under earliest PD from existing EB2I I485 applications. For eg. some cases may have more than one approved I-140, and, rather than list the case by the earlier priority date, USCIS would have listed the case by the later priority date. Based on my observation, that could be the main reason for demand reduction in later PDs and the increase in earlier PDs.

There is also a chance of few hundred CP cases in EB2I demand. As April Inventory and May Demand data are relatively same, there is a chance that some cases in inventory of April was not there in May demand. So that is also one of the reasons for additions in June and July Demand data. A few hundred CP cases was just a general thought.

[bvsamrat]

What I see (IMHO) is

porters between 2003-2007 follow a guassian pattern with peak centered around 2005 and taper off at the edges. Hence 2006-end to 2007 who interfile now (between May 2012-June 2013) would be quite a few compared to porters who interfile during last 6 months in the region of 2004-2005.

FYI- 600 per month interfile every month(only pre-july 2007 Eb3). if 350-400 lie before 2005 and part of them get greened and keep the PD at 2004 SEP and leave the balance added to demand.

Balance 200-300 get added every month to demand and hence rise in demand numbers.

Just my thoughts only




I agree there are few additions. The additions this fiscal is not significant enough to classify as porting. Given the fact that that EB2I cutoff dates did not move this fiscal suggests that porting cases are very high from 2003/2004. By that logic portings will be high from Sep 2004 to Mid 2007. General estimates for EB2I porting numbers are from 4000 - 7500. So far the additions are only in the hundreds. So between Sep 2004-2008 the additions that happened are pre-dominantly regrouping under earliest PD from existing EB2I I485 applications. For eg. some cases may have more than one approved I-140, and, rather than list the case by the earlier priority date, USCIS would have listed the case by the later priority date. Based on my observation, that could be the main reason for demand reduction in later PDs and the increase in earlier PDs.

There is also a chance of few hundred CP cases in EB2I demand. As April Inventory and May Demand data are relatively same, there is a chance that some cases in inventory of April was not there in May demand. So that is also one of the reasons for additions in June and July Demand data. A few hundred CP cases was just a general thought.

[IJune05]

Streamline Procedure for I-485

Taking the above discussion further,I am aware that TSC had implemented sometime back in 2008, an email procedure for AILA members to identify dormat I-485s.
Here's the link (http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2008/11/19/texas-service-introduces-streamline-procedure-for-i-485s-and-i-140s/) to the article that I saved

Can I ask if someone on this board is aware if a similar process exists for NSC

Thanks

[Niksammy]

Streamline Procedure for I-485

Taking the above discussion further,I am aware that TSC had implemented sometime back in 2008, an email procedure for AILA members to identify dormat I-485s.
Here's the link (http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2008/11/19/texas-service-introduces-streamline-procedure-for-i-485s-and-i-140s/) to the article that I saved

Can I ask if someone on this board is aware if a similar process exists for NSC

Thanks

Fragomen lawyer handling my Eb3 to Eb2 porting / interfiling case clearly mentioned using this process/feature when my date becomes current (rather than having me contact a senator). They also mentioned a phone number which ONLY AILA members can use to request USCIS to expedite porting cases once dates become current (in case of lack of action by USCIS). My case is being handled by TSC.

I do not know if these options are available for TSC only, but I would believe that these options should be available for NSC as well.

[NOV2007]

This time to see EB2I PD movement it was a long wait, I guess everybody are anxious to see PD moving and people who have already filed I485 expecting GC card print and people who are applying for the first time eager to get EAD atleast. In my case am undergoing manager nightmare everyday, just for the sake of completing GC process am with this organization. I missed it, back in 2011 due to personal reasons. I wish good luck to all visitors of this forum to get their GC as quickly as they can. Am just waiting on who will be the first person who notify this thread with the sweet news that is expected tomorrow. Thanks to that person in advance.


Fragomen lawyer handling my Eb3 to Eb2 porting / interfiling case clearly mentioned using this process/feature when my date becomes current (rather than having me contact a senator). They also mentioned a phone number which ONLY AILA members can use to request USCIS to expedite porting cases once dates become current (in case of lack of action by USCIS). My case is being handled by TSC.

I do not know if these options are available for TSC only, but I would believe that these options should be available for NSC as well.

[ragx08]

This time to see EB2I PD movement it was a long wait, I guess everybody are anxious to see PD moving and people who have already filed I485 expecting GC card print and people who are applying for the first time eager to get EAD atleast. In my case am undergoing manager nightmare everyday, just for the sake of completing GC process am with this organization. I missed it, back in 2011 due to personal reasons. I wish good luck to all visitors of this forum to get their GC as quickly as they can. Am just waiting on who will be the first person who notify this thread with the sweet news that is expected tomorrow. Thanks to that person in advance.

I was one of those fortunate people to apply I-485 in Jan 2012 and receive my cards a couple of days before the big freeze. But I still keep checking this site and VBs ... waiting to hear good news from friends. I hope the long wait for many will come to an end in the next two months.

[indiani]

DD still not yet out :(

if DD doesn't come out today, there is a good chance that VB might be postponed until 11th. may be they want to have real good view at the picture before moving the dates.hopefully much further than jan 2008

[vizcard]

DD still not yet out :(

if DD doesn't come out today, there is a good chance that VB might be postponed until 11th. may be they want to have real good view at the picture before moving the dates.hopefully much further than jan 2008

Is there a reason you think its coming out today vs Thurs? I would imagine the VB will be out on Friday anyway.

[indiani]

Is there a reason you think its coming out today vs Thurs? I would imagine the VB will be out on Friday anyway.

DD (followed by VB usually within 24 hours) can come any hour from now, just cant say exactly when.
almost certainly by friday.

[billu77]

DD (followed by VB usually within 24 hours) can come any hour from now, just cant say exactly when.
almost certainly by friday.

I think the DD will be out in AM tomorrow and the VB between 5-6pm EST tomorrow.

[eb2visa]

I think the DD will be out in AM tomorrow and the VB between 5-6pm EST tomorrow.



Builletin released

EB2 I - 01JAN08

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6028.html

Interesting thing is China is - 08AUG08

So still there is a chance in next bulletin for forward movement

[eb2visa]

EMPLOYMENT-based:

India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. It is expected that such movement will generate a significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

These changes for the Family F2A, and India Employment Second preference categories reflect actions which have been taken based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should expect that some type of “corrective” action will be required at some point during FY-2014 in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. Such action would involve the establishment and retrogression of such cut-off dates, and could occur at any time.

[yank]

Visa bulletin is out

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6028.html

Still have to wait for 23 days

Congratulations! Finally there is a movement.

[NOV2007]

eb2visa.

Thanks for notifying this thread. You stand first one to notify all of us.
Thanks to Qeseh/Spec and other Guru's as your prediction is 100%. You guys and this forum just rocks.


Builletin released

EB2 I - 01JAN08

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6028.html

Interesting thing is China is - 08AUG08

So still there is a chance in next bulletin for forward movement

[Spectator]

Builletin released

EB2 I - 01JAN08

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6028.html

Interesting thing is China is - 08AUG08

So still there is a chance in next bulletin for forward movementHmmm, no movement for EB2-C or EB3-I. That's a little surprising.

[eb2visa]

Hmmm, no movement for EB2-C or EB3-I. That's a little surprising.

I will see it as good sign as to where India's could move up to.

[bieber]

It says the EB2I movement is to utilize EB2 quota. Does that mean any spillover from EB5, EB1 is not taken into account yet?

[qesehmk]

Spec - EB3C actually had pretty much stalled in July bulletin and that's why I had a feeling that EB2I would move to catch up with EB2C.

But now that it hasn't I believe Sep does have the potential to have that movement.


Hmmm, no movement for EB2-C or EB3-I. That's a little surprising.

[eb2visa]

It says the EB2I movement is to utilize EB2 quota. Does that mean any spillover from EB5, EB1 is not taken into account yet?


Everything is accounted for...

[erikbond101]

Spec - EB3C actually had pretty much stalled in July bulletin and that's why I had a feeling that EB2I would move to catch up with EB2C.

For this reason I actually think that final movement in September will be minimal (0-3 months max) now that EB2IC have caught up.

Man ...I really hope it reaches may 08 in next VB...but logically it will stay around March 15...in next VB

[seattlet]

it would a big surprise if EB2 spillover itself can move dates to 2008. I think it is just the wording in the bulletin.

Guru's

Any idea if there can be further movement next month ?
IMHO if there aint any movement next month, we will see EB2 I either stay at Jan 2008 for few months (or 10 months just like this year) or retrogress (as mentioned in the bulletin).

[qesehmk]

Although the bulletin doesn't give any indication of sep movement here is what it does:
A) It talked of retrogression only in FY 2014. So that's a good thing. At least Jan 08 will definitely be cleared now and it ensures FIFO ... in other words ... much less likelihood that people ahead in line don't get approved vs behind in line do.
B) EB3C date hasn't moved .... to me it means potential for EB2I to catch up through SOFAD and so I would expect some movement in Sep. Dont know how much. But it will be a measured movement for sure. I can't see a jerky movement. So bottomline anywhere between 0-6 months.

[natvyas]

What is a little surprising is that in the July Bulletin is was stated that EB2-C would have movement up to 2 months and there was no movement for that category this month.

Why would they stall the Eb2 C movement like this? Has EB2C used up its allocation which resulted from the fall-down from unused visa for FB category?

[Spectator]

Spec - EB3C actually had pretty much stalled in July bulletin and that's why I had a feeling that EB2I would move to catch up with EB2C.

But now that it hasn't I believe Sep does have the potential to have that movement.Q,

I assume you mean EB2-C, not EB3-C.

Movement to date for EB2-C has been:

- VB ------ COD---
Aug 13 - 08-Aug-08
Jul 13 - 08-Aug-08
Jun 13 - 15-Jul-08
May 13 - 15-May-08
Apr 13 - 01-Apr-08
Mar 13 - 15-Feb-08
Jan 13 - 15-Jan-08
Feb 13 - 08-Dec-07
Dec 12 - 22-Oct-07
Nov 12 - 01-Sep-07
Oct 12 - 15-Jul-07

so I don't understand your comment about stalling in the July VB - it had slowed slightly, but it was still 3 weeks movement.

As natvyas points out, it is out of kilter with what the July VB had said.

[qesehmk]

Spec - Indeed I meant EB2C. I was so much hung up on that even when I was reading EB3C it registered as EB2C.

Anyway ... but that's what I am thinking that EB2IC will probably catch up in the best case scenario). WE will see.


Q,

I assume you mean EB2-C, not EB3-C.

Movement to date for EB2-C has been:

- VB ------ COD---
Aug 13 - 08-Aug-08
Jul 13 - 08-Aug-08
Jun 13 - 15-Jul-08
May 13 - 15-May-08
Apr 13 - 01-Apr-08
Mar 13 - 15-Feb-08
Jan 13 - 15-Jan-08
Feb 13 - 08-Dec-07
Dec 12 -22-Oct-07
Nov 12 - 01-Sep-07
Oct 12 - 15-Jul-07

so I don't understand your comment about stalling in the July VB - it had slowed slightly, but it was still 3 weeks movement.

As natvyas points out, it is out of kilter with what the July VB had said.

[suninphx]

Congratulations to all who are current per Aug VB. Hope every one gets GC this FY. Good luck all !