EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[sbhagwat2000]

Can we believe in the inventory figures? It shows increases for the years 2008 - 2010 from the may figures. Hows that possible when dates were not current. Another reason is it shows an increase in pre 2007 applications the porting applications by about 900 since may. If thats true then from May to October porting has been 900 which if you annualized it would be around 2000 way below reality. Spec or others any insight into this? Do you think we can believe the Eb2 I numbers

[Spectator]

Can we believe in the inventory figures? It shows increases for the years 2008 - 2010 from the may figures. Hows that possible when dates were not current. Another reason is it shows an increase in pre 2007 applications the porting applications by about 900 since may. If thats true then from May to October porting has been 900 which if you annualized it would be around 2000 way below reality. Spec or others any insight into this? Do you think we can believe the Eb2 I numbersI'm not sure why you think that wouldn't happen.

As of May 3, 2012 ( the Inventory Date), the period when the Cut Off Dates had been at 01MAY10 had only just finished (3 days). USCIS certainly would not have processed all the cases at that time. I would be more surprised by how little the 2008-2010 figures have risen, given USCIS seem incapable of doing anything remotely real time.

There was then a further month (all of May) when the Cut Off Dates were at 15AUG07 before dates became Unavailable.

[sbhagwat2000]

I'm not sure why you think that wouldn't happen.

As of May 3, 2012 ( the Inventory Date), the period when the Cut Off Dates had been at 01MAY10 had only just finished (3 days). USCIS certainly would not have processed all the cases at that time. I would be more surprised by how little the 2008-2010 figures have risen, given USCIS seem incapable of doing anything remotely real time.

There was then a further month (all of May) when the Cut Off Dates were at 15AUG07 before dates became Unavailable.

Yes but what abt the porting number. The increase in 900 captures all the months from May to October right since people would have still sent interfile letters to USCIS and they must have added that to the EB2I Queue

[Kanmani]

Yes but what abt the porting number. The increase in 900 captures all the months from May to October right since people would have still sent interfile letters to USCIS and they must have added that to the EB2I Queue

When you notice Jan inventory published in February captured just 10% of January filers . Whenever doors are open for filing they take time to add or delete the inventory numbers. Porting is even more difficult to bring it in to the inventory on time.

Those 900 approx applicants i guess might have filed between may to june 1st (excluded in the may inventory)

Bhagwat, is there any chance you misunderstood reading the inventory ? 2006 column jan to dec rows represents the Priority dates of the applicants falling on that particular months . If you are correct then your question is confusing.

[sbhagwat2000]

When you notice Jan inventory published in February captured just 10% of January filers . Whenever doors are open for filing they take time to add or delete the inventory numbers. Porting is even more difficult to bring it in to the inventory on time.

Those 900 approx applicants i guess might have filed between may to june 1st (excluded in the may inventory)

agreed about porting. But its difficult to add porting cases when dates are current and they are closed. Now the dates were U hence any porting case would have been added correctly. Most who sent an interfile letter between end of may and october 4 would/should have made it to the inventory since those cases were not acted upon and closed

[Kanmani]

The cut off date was 15 Aug 2007 in the month of May'12. Why do you think those cases were added between june to october?

[sbhagwat2000]

The cut off date was 15 Aug 2007 in the month of May'12. Why do you think those cases were added between june to october?

I am not saying they were added between june and oct. i am saying people with pd < 2007 who would have got their 140s approved when dates were U would have sent interfile letters. and USCIS must have added those cases to the inventory.

[GhostWriter]

Below is a rough (and conservative) estimate for spillover from EB1 based on the inventory data.

1. For EB1 cases, as we all know, either I140 and I485 can be filed concurrently or separately. From Trackitt it appears that about 60% (+/- 3%) of the cases are filed concurrently (combined across EB1-A, B and C categories. Separately the ratios vary and are around 80% for EB1-C and 32% for EB1-A with EB1-B in the middle).

2. Let us say all the cases that the inventory shows under PD of July and August 2012 are concurrent cases (very likely). The total is 3304 cases with average of 1652 cases per month. These then represent 60% of the cases filed in these two months (the rest of the cases filed in these two months will be under older PDs). So a total of 2753 cases (1652 / 0.6) per month are being filed under EB1 on average. There shouldn't have been a lot of approvals for concurrent cases filed in July/August 2012 by the time inventory was published in October 2012.

3. If 12 months worth of applications are approved every year then this gives a total usage of 33K (2753 times 12) for EB1 leaving a spillover of 7K from EB1.

Overall the calculation is conservative, spillover should be higher. Any thoughts by others ?


Thanks for the link Kanmani.


Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/FY%202013%20EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2010_4_2012.pd f

[Kanmani]

I am not saying they were added between june and oct. i am saying people with pd < 2007 who would have got their 140s approved when dates were U would have sent interfile letters. and USCIS must have added those cases to the inventory.

I think they were added in the month of may itself. Somebody with real time experience in porting might clear your doubts.

[Spectator]

agreed about porting. But its difficult to add porting cases when dates are current and they are closed. Now the dates were U hence any porting case would have been added correctly. Most who sent an interfile letter between end of may and october 4 would/should have made it to the inventory since those cases were not acted upon and closedsbhagwat2000,

I'm going to use Ron Gotcher's terms here, because I know you have been there.

USICIS can INTERFILE all they want, as that only means consolidating the A-file with the information and papers.

USCIS CANNOT SUBSTITUTE the basis of the pending I-485 from EB3 to EB2 until the PD FOR EB2 IS CURRENT.

Until substitution is done, the case will not show in the EB2 Inventory, because it is not an EB2 I-485 case. Nor will it show in the Demand Data, since a visa cannot be requested until substitution has happened.

The backlog of cases pre 2007 is only indicative of a rising number of porting cases in general in the Inventories. 1,884 in October 2012 - 1,196 in May 2012 - 1,610 in January 2012.

It is not indicative of 4 months worth of total porting. It can only appear as the Cut Off Date moves forward and very little will have been added at the date of the Inventory.

I suspect there are going to be 2 camps. Those that believe the above and those that don't.

It is not worth further discussion.

[suninphx]

Thanks Kanmani. Header Updated with my take on 2013 predictions.

Q - Great to see that you are still maintaining your original projection. Those kind of projections have become very rare these days . There is so much conservativeness on this blog these days that people have almost forgotten other possibilities. Eventually what ever is going to happen till end of FY 2013 will happen and no one knows exactly how things will pan out so reminding people of other possibilities was very important. Your post does exactly that. Thank you!

[vizcard]

Thanks Kanmani. Header Updated with my take on 2013 predictions.

Q - does your analysis consider usage during to EB2ROW not being current and porting? the way i read it, it appeared that it was just current year usage.

[qesehmk]

Viz - EB2ROW not being current - yes. But EB2ROW porting - only a swag. I need to look into it more. I do think there is signficant porting in ROW from 3 to 2.

Spec - if you are reading - I think that is the reason behind huge difference between PERM approvals and actual consumption for EB2ROW. If you remember we discussed this a few months back. I think we need to establish how much porting is in ROW. That will probably help us understand that gap.


Q - does your analysis consider usage during to EB2ROW not being current and porting? the way i read it, it appeared that it was just current year usage.

[Spectator]

Viz - EB2ROW not being current - yes. But EB2ROW porting - only a swag. I need to look into it more. I do think there is signficant porting in ROW from 3 to 2.

Spec - if you are reading - I think that is the reason behind huge difference between PERM approvals and actual consumption for EB2ROW. If you remember we discussed this a few months back. I think we need to establish how much porting is in ROW. That will probably help us understand that gap.Q,

I think vizcard probably meant porting in general, rather than specifically EB2-WW porting.

GhostWriter started the subject of the difference between PERM figures and actual approvals. I have discussed it with him. Probably he is the best person to give a view on the subject. NIW is certainly a factor.

As to EB2-WW porting - I think it is probably 2-3k but there's a lot going on with EB2-WW.

[GhostWriter]

Q, the gap between expected applications from PERM and actual approvals for EB2-WW is quite large as you are saying.

See this link (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013&p=31148#post31148)
Over last four years we have on average 20% approvals not accounted by PERM (6.6K / 32K)
Over last two years we have on average 27% approvals not accounted by PERM (9.5K / 34K)

Spec points to the EB2-NIW category to explain a big chunk of this gap. My initial guess was why would anyone in EB2-WW apply in EB2-NIW as EB2-WW is always current and it only saves a few months of PERM processing and EB2-NIW has its own hassles. But Trackitt does show high usage of EB2-NIW for ROW. It roughly shows 15% (+/- 4%) of total EB2-WW usage (checked for PDs 2010 and 2011).

Probably EB2-NIW category is used a lot by foreign physicians serving in under-served medical areas or other researchers.

Accounting for EB2-NIW leaves room for 5-10% (1.7K - 3.4K ) of porting in EB2-WW.

The annual visa report does not show actual green cards issued under EB2-NIW separately so it seems there is no other way to verify besides Trackitt estimate for now. I am also puzzled by the recent Murthy article that can be interpreted to suggest high porting in EB2-WW.


Q,

I think vizcard probably meant porting in general, rather than specifically EB2-WW porting.

GhostWriter started the subject of the difference between PERM figures and actual approvals. I have discussed it with him. Probably he is the best person to give a view on the subject. NIW is certainly a factor.

As to EB2-WW porting - I think it is probably 2-3k but there's a lot going on with EB2-WW.


Viz - EB2ROW not being current - yes. But EB2ROW porting - only a swag. I need to look into it more. I do think there is signficant porting in ROW from 3 to 2.

Spec - if you are reading - I think that is the reason behind huge difference between PERM approvals and actual consumption for EB2ROW. If you remember we discussed this a few months back. I think we need to establish how much porting is in ROW. That will probably help us understand that gap.

[qesehmk]

Sun
I am slight conservative but not much. If you look at last years prediction - the numbers came out right where we predicted but the distribution was skewed because 2008 were approved over 2007. Otherwise the dates would be in Jan 2008 right now! BTW - CO as it is in the business of painting the worst picture. So if nothing else -our prediction even if turns out too rosy - at least it keeps people cheerful!

However in fairness to others - there indeed is a lot of subjectivity and unknowns for two people to look at the same data and still be quite pessimistic or optimistic.


Q - Great to see that you are still maintaining your original projection. Those kind of projections have become very rare these days . There is so much conservativeness on this blog these days that people have almost forgotten other possibilities. Eventually what ever is going to happen till end of FY 2013 will happen and no one knows exactly how things will pan out so reminding people of other possibilities was very important. Your post does exactly that. Thank you!


Q, the gap between expected applications from PERM and actual approvals for EB2-WW is quite large as you are saying.

See this link (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013&p=31148#post31148)
Over last four years we have on average 20% approvals not accounted by PERM (6.6K / 32K)
Over last two years we have on average 27% approvals not accounted by PERM (9.5K / 34K)

Spec points to the EB2-NIW category to explain a big chunk of this gap. My initial guess was why would anyone in EB2-WW apply in EB2-NIW as EB2-WW is always current and it only saves a few months of PERM processing and EB2-NIW has its own hassles. But Trackitt does show high usage of EB2-NIW for ROW. It roughly shows 15% (+/- 4%) of total EB2-WW usage (checked for PDs 2010 and 2011).

Probably EB2-NIW category is used a lot by foreign physicians serving in under-served medical areas or other researchers.

Accounting for EB2-NIW leaves room for 5-10% (1.7K - 3.4K ) of porting in EB2-WW.

The annual visa report does not show actual green cards issued under EB2-NIW separately so it seems there is no other way to verify besides Trackitt estimate for now. I am also puzzled by the recent Murthy article that can be interpreted to suggest high porting in EB2-WW.

Ghost - I actually take my words back. Any porting should be supported by PERM since one still needs a PERM for porting. So any difference is purely NIW+other things. This is different from EB2IC where not all new EB2 PERMs qualify for approvals. Whereas in case of EB2ROW - since category is current - all PERMs approved are eligible for 485 approval consideration the same year.

I would only use 27% which is the recent number. So if 15% is NIW then 12 is still unexplained. So perhaps we are better off bumping off ROW numbers 38% (to account for 27% of total 100% e.g. 27/73). Does that make sense?

[GhostWriter]

I would only use 27% which is the recent number. So if 15% is NIW then 12 is still unexplained. So perhaps we are better off bumping off ROW numbers 38% (to account for 27% of total 100% e.g. 27/73). Does that make sense?

Yes Q, it does.

[qesehmk]

Viz - that was a rough analysis. But EB2I porting is the reason I am thinking Sep 2008 instead of Dec 2008.

The EB2ROW being current or not doesn't really matter since the 485 inventory includes all the documentarily qualified cases and the analysis is always based on that.


Q - does your analysis consider usage during to EB2ROW not being current and porting? the way i read it, it appeared that it was just current year usage.

[wavelet3000]

Looking at the recent inventories, here are my projections.

EB2-WW Natural Rate.
2.7K June figure includes July demand brought forward, while 0.7K and 0.6K figures for April and May are reduced by approvals for lucky few. Prior to April, it is close to 1K per month, but again reduced by approvals.Splitting hairs, assume 1.3K new EB2-WW native demand per month. For FY13, this will translate to 14.3K, since July-12 is already included and July-September of 2013 will get approved in FY14.

EB3-WW to EB2-WW porting
In 5 months between May and October inventories, EB3-WW for the first 6 months of 2007 has been reduced by 108 I-485's. Assume this reduction is due to porting. Multiply by 2 to get to full 2007 year. Multiply by 12/5 to get annual rate. Multiply by 5.5 years (part 06 and part 12 and full years in between). Multiply by 2 to account for CP. Net estimate is 5.7K

EB2-WW Backlog reduction
Current EB2-WW inventory is 18.2K. In Aug. 2009 it was 7.7K. Assume in FY13 inventory falls back by 10K.

Altogether EB2-WW consumption will be 30K. This leaves SO of 4.5k. If we add Spec's projection of 5K from EB-1, and zero from other sources, net SOFAD will be 15K so COD will approach first half of 2008. Almost assuredly, SO will not be released until the last quarter, especially as backlog reduction part of EB2-WW consumption is front-loaded and will scare CO into extreme conservatism.

[Spectator]

I'll update the Facts & Data as I have time.

Total Decisions = 63,793

Certified PERM

China -------- 3,354
India ------- 30,306
Mexico ------- 1,209
Philippines -- 1,531
ROW --------- 18,216

Total ------- 54,616


AFRICA ----------- 939
ASIA ---------- 42,350
EUROPE --------- 4,730
NORTH AMERICA -- 4,538
OCEANIA ---------- 294
SOUTH AMERICA -- 1,765

Grand Total --- 54,616

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,

India's numbers are way above where they should be. Is this an indication of absolutely massive porting?

Last year I think it was 28,900 for india. So its almost the same number

[Spectator]

I have now updated the PERM posts in FACTS & DATA with the Q4 FY2012 PERM data.

Since they are going to have very different movement, I have separated out China and India in this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-China-amp-India) post (previously they were shown as combined figures).

PS to sportsfan

Compared to the 30,306 figure, last year was 31,273. See this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations) post.

I think what would be more worrying is that PD2011 PERM for India is 29.3k compared to a normal around 23k. PD2011 is either going to be very slow year to move through or there were an awful lot of porting cases (or both). PD2012 is on course to be a similar number.

[sbhagwat2000]

I have now updated the PERM posts in FACTS & DATA with the Q4 FY2012 PERM data.

Since they are going to have very different movement, I have separated out China and India in this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29-for-China-amp-India) post (previously they were shown as combined figures).

PS to sportsfan

Compared to the 30,306 figure, last year was 31,273. See this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations) post.

I think what would be more worrying is that PD2011 PERM for India is 29.3k compared to a normal around 23k. PD2011 is either going to be very slow year to move through or there were an awful lot of porting cases (or both). PD2012 is on course to be a similar number.

Could it be also more RFEs and audits in 2011 compared to years past

[qesehmk]

Friends - we have made some changes to the forum to prevent SPAM. There has been a ton of spam floating around and a lot of the Gurus and Moderators have been spending a lot of time keeping forum clear. So please don't mind our efforts to keep the forum free from SPAM.

Happy thanksgiving!

[redsox2009]

Below numbers are the new I-485 fillings. There is a decrease in the number.

Month/Service Center TSC NSC Total
June 7,383 9,787 17170
July 6,376 9,184 15560
Aug 4,521 8,136 12657
Sep 4,019 6,807 10826


Is this is bacause of the retrogress of the EB2 dates or demand is low?

[Spectator]

Below numbers are the new I-485 fillings. There is a decrease in the number.

Month/Service Center TSC NSC Total
June 7,383 9,787 17170
July 6,376 9,184 15560
Aug 4,521 8,136 12657
Sep 4,019 6,807 10826


Is this is bacause of the retrogress of the EB2 dates or demand is low?redsox2009,

I think the figures suggest it is mainly due to retrogression of the EB2 dates.

Receipts

Month -- NSC/TSC -- India ------ WW
Oct11 -- 17,562 -- 15JUL07 -- Current
Nov11 -- 20,977 -- 01NOV07 -- Current
Dec11 -- 23,708 -- 15MAR08 -- Current
Jan11 -- 27,506 -- 01JAN09 -- Current
Feb12 -- 30,551 -- 01JAN10 -- Current
Mar12 -- 26,717 -- 01MAY10 -- Current
Apr12 -- 18,341 -- 01MAY10 -- Current
May12 -- 15,802 -- 15AUG07 -- Current
Jun12 -- 17,170 -- UNAVAIL -- Current
Jul12 -- 15,560 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09
Aug12 -- 12,657 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09
Sep12 -- 10,826 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09

[qesehmk]

redsox - thanks.

90% of the decrease seems to be due to EB2ROW retrogression. The difference extrapolated to full year is pretty much EB2ROW annual consumption.

It would be reasonable to expect overall 485 filings to bound in Oct Nov and Dec due to these backlogged folks waiting to file 485 in EB2ROW.


Below numbers are the new I-485 fillings. There is a decrease in the number.

Month/Service Center TSC NSC Total
June 7,383 9,787 17170
July 6,376 9,184 15560
Aug 4,521 8,136 12657
Sep 4,019 6,807 10826


Is this is bacause of the retrogress of the EB2 dates or demand is low?

[Spectator]

This is a Category for which no information on I-485 usage during the year seems to be posted.

In FY2011, it surprisingly contributed over 3.5k visas towards spillover. The main reason for this appears to be a drop in approvals for Ministers and Religious Workers compared to FY2010, when EB4 used 11k.

We do not know the numbers for FY2012 yet.

I have been looking at the figures for I-360, which is the equivalent of the I-140 for EB4.

I am not sure what to make of it. It doesn't really point to spare visas being available to spillover from EB4.

I-360 Receipts in FY2011 were 18.8K and in FY2012 were 19.2k according to USCIS.

In FY2011, there were 12.2k I-360 approved, with an average denial rate of about 23% on applications completed.

In FY2012, the numbers are on course for around 10.6k I-360 approvals, with an average denial rate of about 27%.

The average ratio including Dependents is 1.75 for visas issued.

That would give potential I-485 numbers of 21.3k in FY2011 and 18.6k in FY2012.

Both are way above the c. 10k number available to EB4 in a FY when no extra FB visas from the previous year are available.

In addition the number of pending I-360 cases yet to be completed is huge and continues to rise.

At the beginning of FY2011 the number was 8.3k. By the end of FY2012, that number had risen to 17.7k I-360 applications pending or awaiting Customer action (mainly at Vermont).

It's hard to see how EB4 can contribute any spillover in future and makes it all the stranger that it did so in FY2011.

Any insight on this subject would be welcome.

Edit:-

One reason for the sudden drop in FY2011 may be the following:


However, on October 13, 2010, the Ninth District Court of Appeals overturned the district court’s ruling in Ruiz-Diaz. USCIS therefore issued a memorandum to all of its adjudicators that effective November 8, 2010, USCIS will no longer accept concurrently filed I-360/I-485 forms for special immigrant religious worker cases. Any concurrently filed special immigrant religious worker petition filed prior to November 8 will be processed. After this date, any I-485 filed together with an I-360 for a religious worker will be rejected. Special immigrant religious workers must once again wait for the I-360 form to be approved before they can file the I-485 (and the I-1765 and I-131 forms).

This may have caused a temporary dip in I-485 cases to adjudicate in FY2011.

The processing time for an I-360 at VSC is currently shown as 5 months

[justvisiting]

I-360s include battered spouses/children and widowers. These do not use the EB4 quota. Couldn;t that explain most of the discrepancy? The dashboard does not separate I-360s into categories.

[Spectator]

I-360s include battered spouses/children and widowers. These do not use the EB4 quota. Couldn;t that explain most of the discrepancy? The dashboard does not separate I-360s into categories.justvisiting,

Thanks for that piece of information. You're right. That makes a lot of sense.

The dashboard does not separate out the sub categories, but the All Form Types Performance Data (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) does into:

I-360 Amerasians
I-360 Widow(er) Petition
I-360 Abusee/Self Petition
I-360 Special Immigrant
I-360 Special Immigrant Juvenile

The SI Juvenile category does appear to count towards the quota and is shown as SL1 / SL6 category in the reports.

That brings the numbers down to slightly above full usage of the allocation available. With some I-485 denials, it would be about right.

The lack of EB4 approvals in FY2011 was exacerbated by the fact that the ratio for Religious I-360 is 2.0 when including Dependents

I still think the number of pending cases is worrisome, although there is no way to know which sub-category they belong to.

Thanks, that really helped.

[Spectator]

I have found the figures released by DOS for EB5 visa usage in FY2012.

Previously, a figure of 6.2k had been mentioned - the numbers were actually much higher than that.

http://iiusablog.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/IIUSA-FY2012-EB5-VISA-STATS-Source-DOS.pdf

and

http://blog.lucidtext.com/

EB5 FY2012

China -------- 6,124 -- 80.15%
South Korea ---- 447
Taiwan --------- 148
Venezuela ------ 109
Iran ------------ 81

Total -------- 7,641

With 10,292 visas available to EB5 in FY2012 because of extra numbers from FB, that meant 2,651 visas fell up to EB1.

Given the rise in I-526 applications and approvals, it is virtually certain that EB5-China will have a Cut Off Date imposed at some time in FY2013.

Of the 7,641 approvals, 6,678 (or 87.4%) were Consular Processed.

[redsox2009]

PERMS/I-140 & I-485 for last five months.

This chart might help us to analyze the usage later. I don't have whole fig's to complie the chart for last year.

************************************************** ***********
2011/12 Total Bulletin - BUlletin - Total - Total - ROW
Month -- I-485 -- VisaB(I) - VisaB(W)-I-140 PERMS -PERMS
************************************************** ************
Oct11 -- 17,562 -- 15JUL07 -- Current
Nov11 -- 20,977 -- 01NOV07 -- Current
Dec11 -- 23,708 -- 15MAR08 -- Current - 5850
Jan11 -- 27,506 -- 01JAN09 -- Current
Feb12 -- 30,551 -- 01JAN10 -- Current - 4762
Mar12 -- 26,717 -- 01MAY10 -- Current - 4836
Apr12 -- 18,341 -- 01MAY10 -- Current - 4670
May12 -- 15,802 -- 15AUG07 -- Current - 5635 7926 2661
Jun12 -- 17,170 -- UNAVAIL -- Current - 7297 5951 2538
Jul12 -- 15,560 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09 - 8093 6361 2460
Aug12 -- 12,657 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09 - 7886 7378 3053
Sep12 -- 10,826 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09 - 6910 6026 2273

[Spectator]

Just some rough figures entirely based on Trackitt data for EB2/EB2-NIW ROW Approvals to date:

EB2 ------ 80%
EB2-NIW - 20%

EB2

Approvals

Receipt Date

92% have RD of June 2012 or earlier.
82% have RD of February 2012 through June 2012
8% have RD before 2012
92% have RD in 2012
52% have RD of June 2012

Priority Date

99% have a PD of April 2012 or earlier
62% have a PD before 2012
38% have a PD in 2012

Pending

57% of cases received since October 2011 remain pending (51% if 20% never update).


EB2-NIW

Approvals

Receipt Date

97% have RD of June 2012 or earlier.
95% have RD of October 2011 through June 2012
18% have RD before 2012
82% have RD in 2012
31% have RD of June 2012

Priority Date

99% have a PD of April 2012 or earlier
28% have a PD before 2012
72% have a PD in 2012
13% have a PD of June 2012

Pending

49% of EB2-NIW cases received since October 2011 remain pending (43% if 20% never update).

The above might give some idea of how processing is going, but the sample size is quite low. Use your common sense.

[richie.rich]

Is this Group dead or people lost hope??

[Spectator]

Is this Group dead or people lost hope??I'm doing my best!! :)

Given that most members are probably EB2-I and the fact that not much is likely to happen with Cut Off Dates for some time, perhaps it is natural that there is less discussion.

I think there is much beyond that which is interesting and I have tried to post information as it becomes available which might help with either forecasting Spillover for FY2013 or trying to determine the number of visas allocated in FY2012.

I'm sure there will be discussion when the next Demand Data figures and Visa Bulletin are published (hopefully on Monday).

It cuts both ways though. If people don't participate and ask a question or post their thoughts, there will not be many posts.

Is there anything you wanted to discuss in particular? What are your thoughts?

[qesehmk]

Spec - I also think that one of our goal is to bring clarity to GC process. Less activity also may indicate less anxiety when people have generally a fair idea of where things are going. In fact in last 3 years we certainly have reduced the frenzy around Visa bulletins. People were too crazy about the bulletins and it was a voodoo discussion. However today I think people are much better educated about the role of EB1 EB2ROW and how and why the dates move.

Of course USCIS / DOS is prefectly capable of creating haphazard movements - like they did in FY 2012. But overall I am not too disturbed if forum is silent because of lack of anxiety!
I'm doing my best!! :)

Given that most members are probably EB2-I and the fact that not much is likely to happen with Cut Off Dates for some time, perhaps it is natural that there is less discussion.

I think there is much beyond that which is interesting and I have tried to post information as it becomes available which might help with either forecasting Spillover for FY2013 or trying to determine the number of visas allocated in FY2012.

I'm sure there will be discussion when the next Demand Data figures and Visa Bulletin are published (hopefully on Monday).

It cuts both ways though. If people don't participate and ask a question or post their thoughts, there will not be many posts.

Is there anything you wanted to discuss in particular? What are your thoughts?

[Spectator]

Spec - I also think that one of our goal is to bring clarity to GC process. Less activity also may indicate less anxiety when people have generally a fair idea of where things are going. In fact in last 3 years we certainly have reduced the frenzy around Visa bulletins. People were too crazy about the bulletins and it was a voodoo discussion. However today I think people are much better educated about the role of EB1 EB2ROW and how and why the dates move.

Of course USCIS / DOS is prefectly capable of creating haphazard movements - like they did in FY 2012. But overall I am not too disturbed if forum is silent because of lack of anxiety!Q,

I agree with you, particularly about VBs, but I think my points are valid too.

Currently, there is precious little information available to judge how EB1 & EB2-WW and will perform over the whole of FY2013. That is going to determine where EB2-I end the year.

I had hoped to start hearing about figures for last year. We now have some EB5 figures, but only a confusing (and obviously incorrect) statement about EB2-IC.

In general, Q1 is quite quiet as the pattern for the year emerges. I think it is noteworthy to point out that EB2-ROW already has Trackitt approvals that number over 40% of FY2012 and more than a 1/3 of FY2011 numbers. The approvals are going to be "lumpy' and we might expect a "quiet" period fairly soon, but it does not bode well for spillover.

[vizcard]

considering this the calculations thread, its tough to do so without new data. No new data = no new calculations = no new insight = less traffic. No one's fault..its just the nature of the beast right now.

I guarantee traffic will increase around VB time especially since Q1 is now over and we'll get insight in to if CO will apply QSP (unlikely but unknown for a fact).

[imdeng]

I do make it to the thread at least once every couple days - I read - but really don't have anything to post since there isn't much happening. I am sure the traffic and also posts will materialize once we have some more data available and things start to happen.


considering this the calculations thread, its tough to do so without new data. No new data = no new calculations = no new insight = less traffic. No one's fault..its just the nature of the beast right now.

I guarantee traffic will increase around VB time especially since Q1 is now over and we'll get insight in to if CO will apply QSP (unlikely but unknown for a fact).

[ChampU]

considering this the calculations thread, its tough to do so without new data. No new data = no new calculations = no new insight = less traffic. No one's fault..its just the nature of the beast right now.

I guarantee traffic will increase around VB time especially since Q1 is now over and we'll get insight in to if CO will apply QSP (unlikely but unknown for a fact).

I think less frenzy and more fact based discussions is what makes this blog the best sources for the GC process information.. There are far too many sites wherein we have routine threads of "Predictions for *****, 20** Visa bulletin" and then a bunch of responses most of which are "Cut Of Date Predictions = My PD+ 1 week".

Out here we have people with depth of info like Q/Spec/Veni/Teddy/Nishant whose opinions mean something.. These guys are like the Alan Greenspans of the world.. they don't give out random predictions coz they know that people take them seriously..

With great data crunching power, comes great responsibility.. :)

[Pedro Gonzales]

Does anyone have a read on the 'delay' in posting the visa bulletin? I ought to have come out by Friday, or yesterday. The 11th is officially late, so what gives?

I suspect the dates will move forward and they're trying to pinpoint the precise date to move it to.

[qesehmk]

Pedro, generally it is second Friday or 10th business day of the month.
Does anyone have a read on the 'delay' in posting the visa bulletin? I ought to have come out by Friday, or yesterday. The 11th is officially late, so what gives?

I suspect the dates will move forward and they're trying to pinpoint the precise date to move it to.

[08OCT2008]

Jan 2013 Visa Bulletin is out : http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5834.html

No Change to EB2I. Movement for EB2C

[yank]

Q,

If EB2C end this fiscal year say to Mid Sep 2008. What are chances for EB2I? Is it going to end on the same date as EB2C when spillover is going to start some time after this quarter?

Please reply.

[Spectator]

No Demand Data yet.

It was published after the VB last month, so there is still hope.

EB3-P has really stalled. It has only moved 2 weeks in 5 VBs and now trails EB3-M-ROW by 5 1/2 months.

[skpanda]

I think there are could be only two theories for non movement of EB2I.

1. Mr. CO is trying to estimate the Porting cases and is not approving any EB2I (or may be approving only porting cases before 1st sep 2004).

2. There are more than 250 porters (or whatever the monthly quota) with PD before 1st sep 2004 applying every month.

Feel free to add your own theories..

[qesehmk]

yank - skpanda's theory #2 seems quite plausible to me. So in all likelihood we will see movement not before Jun 2013.
Q,

If EB2C end this fiscal year say to Mid Sep 2008. What are chances for EB2I? Is it going to end on the same date as EB2C when spillover is going to start some time after this quarter?

Please reply.

[triplet]

My first post here and all I really wanted to say was what a fantastic place this is to get some answers to a process otherwise shrouded in absolute mystery, so yeah, thanks Mr.Q, Spec and many other tireless contributors. My priority date is in Oct 2008 (EB2I of course) and like many here I've been patiently waiting for my turn, but irrespective of what happens I've always found some respite here, so kudos to you folks! Cheers! (if you're wondering why triplet, it is inspired by the movie triplets de belleville! If you haven't seen it, make sure you do!)

[yank]

Thanks Q for the reply.

My question is not when dates are going to move forward. I would like to know if there is any possibility that EB2I PD matches with EB2C by Sep 2013.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Thanks Q for the reply.

My question is not when dates are going to move forward. I would like to know if there is any possibility that EB2I PD matches with EB2C by Sep 2013.

You're really asking what the spillover is going to be for the year. I think there isn't any consensus over here on that issue yet, but I think if EB2C keeps moving at the same pace then no, EB2I will not catchup even if we get to use all the spillover.

[qesehmk]

Yank - EB2C is running on razor thin margin i.e. just around 3K i.e. their full year quota. IMHO they should club EB2C with EB2ROW. But that's another topic.

Assuming that doesn't happen - EB2I will certainly catch up with EB2C by Sep 2013. Absolutely yes.
Thanks Q for the reply.

My question is not when dates are going to move forward. I would like to know if there is any possibility that EB2I PD matches with EB2C by Sep 2013.

[Spectator]

Thanks Q for the reply.

My question is not when dates are going to move forward. I would like to know if there is any possibility that EB2I PD matches with EB2C by Sep 2013.yank,

To reach mid September 2008 would need SOFAD of about 20k plus additional porting numbers.

I'll leave you to decide whether that is possible or not.

[openaccount]

yank,

To reach mid September 2008 would need SOFAD of about 20k plus additional porting numbers.
.

Spec,
If EB2I PD stays at Sept1 2004 till July/Aug2013(i believe if there is any spillover CO is not going to apply until then), if spillover is applied in last 2-3 months then porting effect would be minimal as it would take some time to complete interfiling process once dates are current, assuming that USCIS is not processing porting cases with PDs beyond Sep2004 who started porting(interfiling) after retrogression. This might have effect again in 2014 on EB2I PD movement we might see PD stalling similar to FY2013 in FY2014 until spill over starts.

So at this point i would not consider any cases other than cases included in USCIS Inventory & Demand Data that might be ready for approval once spill over starts in July/August. Porting(PD beyond Sept2004) will start showing up in DD only if CO chooses to apply SO earlier starting from April that way porting cases will have enough time to show up in DD(complete interfiling process).

[Spectator]

Spec,
If EB2I PD stays at Sept1 2004 till July/Aug2013(i believe if there is any spillover CO is not going to apply until then), if spillover is applied in last 2-3 months then porting effect would be minimal as it would take some time to complete interfiling process once dates are current, assuming that USCIS is not processing porting cases with PDs beyond Sep2004 who started porting(interfiling) after retrogression. This might have effect again in 2014 on EB2I PD movement we might see PD stalling similar to FY2013 in FY2014 until spill over starts.

So at this point i would not consider any cases other than cases included in USCIS Inventory & Demand Data that might be ready for approval once spill over starts in July/August. Porting(PD beyond Sept2004) will start showing up in DD only if CO chooses to apply SO earlier starting from April that way porting cases will have enough time to show up in DD(complete interfiling process).openaccount,

I think that is a fair comment, although I suspect USCIS will have processed them to the point of requesting the visa, so there is not much overhead to sent the request to DOS.

Even if that is not the case, even at 250 cases a month, that is still c. 2k already approved, if spillover is not allocated to very late in the year.

As you say, even if they are not approved in FY2013, it only delays the pain until FY2014 and virtually guarantees a sharp retrogression in the Cut Off Dates again.

[imdeng]

Considering that EB2ROW is current, CO can not club EB2C with EB2ROW until the accumulated queue in EB2C (folks with PD 2008 through 2012) are cleared. Only then will it make sense to combine them. Assuming EB2C will not receive any spillover because of EB2I catching everything, it might be a very very long time before EB2C becomes current and gets combined with EB2ROW. So I guess we are stuck with EB2I/C/ROW classification for some time.


... IMHO they should club EB2C with EB2ROW. ...

[imdeng]

My vote is for #2.

BTW - we can now definitely put to rest any hope that there might be quarterly spillover. Now its a wait until June/July 2013 at least to get any appreciate forward movement in EB2I PD.


I think there are could be only two theories for non movement of EB2I.

1. Mr. CO is trying to estimate the Porting cases and is not approving any EB2I (or may be approving only porting cases before 1st sep 2004).

2. There are more than 250 porters (or whatever the monthly quota) with PD before 1st sep 2004 applying every month.

Feel free to add your own theories..

[imdeng]

Given the demand densities of EB2I and EB2C, the relatively low amount of spillover expected and high amount of porting in EB2I; I think EB2I and EB2C have permanently decoupled. EB2C PD > EB2I PD for the foreseeable future.


Thanks Q for the reply.

My question is not when dates are going to move forward. I would like to know if there is any possibility that EB2I PD matches with EB2C by Sep 2013.

[redsox2009]

Didn't everyone including DOS say there will be cutoff date for China for EB-5 Category and today we saw EB-5 as C.

Any thoughts?

[Kanmani]

All Form Types Performance Data (Fiscal Year 2012, 4th Qtr) Data as of September 30, 2012 is out

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all-form-types-performance-data_fy2012_qtr4.pdf

[Spectator]

Didn't everyone including DOS say there will be cutoff date for China for EB-5 Category and today we saw EB-5 as C.

Any thoughts?redsox2009,

Yes, but later in the FY.

This is what the December VB said:


It appears likely that a cut-off date will need to be established for the China Employment Fifth preference category at some point during second half of fiscal year 2013.

Such action would be delayed as long as possible, since while number use may be excessive over a 1 to 5 month period, it could average out to an acceptable level over a longer (e.g., 4 to 9 month) period.

This would be the first time a cut-off date has been established in this category, which is why readers are being provided with the maximum amount of advance notice regarding the possibility.

[qesehmk]

I think that can happen IFF (if and only if) overall EB5 is oversubscribed (not sure yet) & China is oversubscribed (probably yes). I haven't yet looked at EB5 data. But my hunch is that - that is not going to happen.
Didn't everyone including DOS say there will be cutoff date for China for EB-5 Category and today we saw EB-5 as C.

Any thoughts?

[Spectator]

I think that can happen IFF (if and only if) overall EB5 is oversubscribed (not sure yet) & China is oversubscribed (probably yes). I haven't yet looked at EB5 data. But my hunch is that - that is not going to happen.Q,

I believe it is more likely to happen than not. At the very least it will be a close run thing.

Last year, EB5 used 7,641 visa and the I-526 applications are now much higher.

Of those, China used 6,124 visas.

If EB5 looks like it will breach the allocation limit in FY2013, China MUST retrogress, since their initial allocation is ZERO (due to the provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act).

The only question is, if overall, how close EB5 gets to the 9,940 limit.

Last FY, EB5 Receipts were more than 150% higher than the previous FY and Approvals were more than 200% higher than the previous FY. There is also a huge backlog (c. 5k) of I-526 cases.

Concurrent Filing is not allowed for EB5 - processing for Immigrant Status can only begin when the I-526 is approved. Last FY, 87.4% of EB5 cases were Consular Processed.

CO has already said that EB5 demand is currently running at 1k / month.

Here are the trends:333

[wavelet3000]

No Demand Data yet.

It was published after the VB last month, so there is still hope.

EB3-P has really stalled. It has only moved 2 weeks in 5 VBs and now trails EB3-M-ROW by 5 1/2 months.

EB3-C has overcome EB3-P at speed faster than CO forecast even though inventory density is about the same. CP percentage drop to blame?

[redsox2009]

This graph shows the total I-140 and I-485 receipts and completions over the last 24 months. Based on the graphs the I-140 and I-485 filings are down, but the I-140 completions are high.

any analysis on this?

332

[wavelet3000]

This graph shows the total I-140 and I-485 receipts and completions over the last 24 months. Based on the graphs the I-140 and I-485 filings are down, but the I-140 completions are high.

any analysis on this?

332

One guess could be that EB2-WW retrogression decoupled I-485/I-140 filings that were concurrent before. Since they are current again, this should even out. Not clear what WW share of the graph is, but hopefully it indicates only moderate build-up of I-485 WW backlog and that it'll dissipate later, and the mystery of WW inconsistency between PERM and I-485 demands will resolve itself.

[Spectator]

All Form Types Performance Data (Fiscal Year 2012, 4th Qtr) Data as of September 30, 2012 is out

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all-form-types-performance-data_fy2012_qtr4.pdfKanmani,

Rather belated thanks for posting this.

IF all 144,951 EB visas available in FY2012 were issued, then the Consular Processed portion would be 13.9%.

That compares to an actual of 10.8% in FY2011.

Most of that increase can be attributed to EB5, where 87.4% are CP.

[skpanda]

Not sure if this has been discussed already - Pending inventory is published with a date of Oct 2012.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Few points that I observed:

1. For EB2I Difference between Latest Demand Data (Dec 2012) and Inventory (Oct 2012) is just 3000. Which I think is good sign since many people were worried that there could be lot of people who will appear in Inventory but not the Demand data.

2. There are 257 numbers for May 2010 - Not sure how that is possible since PD never went there. The best ever PD is 1st May 2010 so there should not be any applications for May 2010. (Also there is a reduction in the April 2010 - not sure how that is possible either).

3. I compared the inventory of Oct 2011 to Oct 2012. The difference in EB3I numbers is 4404. If we remove the regular 2800 allocation, it appears that the net reduction is about 1600. These are obviously porters. However what i do not understand is why are we over estimating the porting to be 5K and over? Am i missing something?

[Spectator]

3. I compared the inventory of Oct 2011 to Oct 2012. The difference in EB3I numbers is 4404. If we remove the regular 2800 allocation, it appears that the net reduction is about 1600. These are obviously porters. However what i do not understand is why are we over estimating the porting to be 5K and over? Am i missing something?skpanda,

Some thoughts to consider.

I think it is very difficult to estimate porting.

The change in Inventory numbers is only the NET change and doesn't necessarily reflect the GROSS numbers.

Your calculation assumes that the Inventory is static and includes all cases that USCIS has.

It was quite noticeable with EB3-ROW that new cases were being added as they moved through PD2006.

The reduction of 1.6k can equally be :

0 additions minus 1.6k porting cases or

3.4k additions minus 5.0k porting cases

In each case, the net reduction is 1.6k. It is not possible to tell if either are true.

A slightly different example.

In FY2011, the EB3-I Demand Data reduced by 6.0k. EB3-I actually received 4.0k so the difference was 2.0k. In the PDs where approvals could be made, the demand only lowered by 3.6k, so there were at least 0.4k cases approved additional to the initial demand.

Looking at EB2-I, the demand reduced by 17.9k. EB2-I actually received 24.0k so the difference was 6.1k. The Cut Off Dates were static for 8 months in FY2011. Certainly some of the extra approvals are probably due to new cases submitted late in FY2011 and approved, but they would have to have been adjudicated very quickly.

It is a hard nut to crack.

[redsox2009]

Looks like if I-140 receipts are under 5K, then we can see aggresive date movement for EB-2 in second half.

[skpanda]

Thanks Spec... makes sense!


skpanda,

Some thoughts to consider.

I think it is very difficult to estimate porting.

The change in Inventory numbers is only the NET change and doesn't necessarily reflect the GROSS numbers.

Your calculation assumes that the Inventory is static and includes all cases that USCIS has.

It was quite noticeable with EB3-ROW that new cases were being added as they moved through PD2006.

The reduction of 1.6k can equally be :

0 additions minus 1.6k porting cases or

3.4k additions minus 5.0k porting cases

In each case, the net reduction is 1.6k. It is not possible to tell if either are true.

A slightly different example.

In FY2011, the EB3-I Demand Data reduced by 6.0k. EB3-I actually received 4.0k so the difference was 2.0k. In the PDs where approvals could be made, the demand only lowered by 3.6k, so there were at least 0.4k cases approved additional to the initial demand.

Looking at EB2-I, the demand reduced by 17.9k. EB2-I actually received 24.0k so the difference was 6.1k. The Cut Off Dates were static for 8 months in FY2011. Certainly some of the extra approvals are probably due to new cases submitted late in FY2011 and approved, but they would have to have been adjudicated very quickly.

It is a hard nut to crack.

[openaccount]

Jan2013 Demand Data Updated

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[openaccount]

Interesting numbers for 2007 & 2008 PDs there is quite a difference between DD(Jan2013) and USCIS Inventory(OCT 2012).

PD-------Jan 2103DD----Oct2012 USCIS INV-------Difference
2007---------5400-------------5142---------------------+258
2008--------16325-----------15897---------------------+428

Numbers are being added each month even though PDs with those dates are not current from June 2012. Looks like USCIS is processing porting cases filed after June2012 even though those PDs are not current so once I-140 is approved and USCIS is notified about Interfiling, if there is a 485 attached already then it is processed and added to EB2 DD irrespective of PD being current or not. I think this is what is going on at present with porting cases(ported after June2012) whose PDs are not current. If this is the case then by the time CO starts applying SO all porting cases should show up in DD.

[gkjppp]

Jan2013 Demand Data Updated

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

its almost certain, by Oct 2013, EB2 moves to Jun 1,2008.
this year CTS is not filing for GC aggressively , last year it filed 2000 perms/ this year sofor 100+

[Spectator]

Interesting numbers for 2007 & 2008 PDs there is quite a difference between DD(Jan2013) and USCIS Inventory(OCT 2012).

PD-------Jan 2103DD----Oct2012 USCIS INV-------Difference
2007---------5400-------------5142---------------------+258
2008--------16325-----------15897---------------------+428

Numbers are being added each month even though PDs with those dates are not current from June 2012. Looks like USCIS is processing porting cases filed after June2012 even though those PDs are not current so once I-140 is approved and USCIS is notified about Interfiling, if there is a 485 attached already then it is processed and added to EB2 DD irrespective of PD being current or not. I think this is what is going on at present with porting cases(ported after June2012) whose PDs are not current. If this is the case then by the time CO starts applying SO all porting cases should show up in DD.I think that is just continued pre-adjudication of the EB2 cases that were submitted when the dates were last Current.

Otherwise, you would also expect to see substantial movement of the 2004 - 2006 figures as well. They are static (well movement of 50).

[openaccount]

I think that is just continued pre-adjudication of the EB2 cases that were submitted when the dates were last Current.

Otherwise, you would also expect to see substantial movement of the 2004 - 2006 figures as well. They are static (well movement of 50).

That might be true as people with EB3I PDs from Sept2007 have never filed a 485 in EB3. We will know more with future Inventory,DD reports if there is a substantial increase in numbers for PDs prior to Aug2007 then we will know if USCIS is processing porting cases or not for PDs which are not current.

[vizcard]

its almost certain, by Oct 2013, EB2 moves to Jun 1,2008.
this year CTS is not filing for GC aggressively , last year it filed 2000 perms/ this year sofor 100+

Not sure how you arrived at that conclusion. It looks we need 9.5k to clear 2007 and possibly more for additional porting. 2008 demand density appears to be over 1.5k per month. To get to June end we would need atleast an addln 9k visas. That appears to be a long shot.

I'm not saying you are wrong but just curious about your assumptions.

[sbhagwat2000]

Looking at the latest DD and few things confuse me. May be the gurus can shed some light.

1. how is it that the number of 2007 and 2008 EB2 I numbers are greater than the ones in the inventory. Does this mean that USCIS is so inefficient that they have not yet added all applications to their inventory. that really is bad as they had dates U for 4 months.

2. For Eb2 I - If you look at the inventory there are 219 apps between sept 1 2004 and Jan 1 2005. So the demand before sept 1 2004 looks to be around 50. Is that right ? if thats correct date should move atleast by some months.

Am I saying anything thats incorrect

[Spectator]

Suggestions inline.

Looking at the latest DD and few things confuse me. May be the gurus can shed some light.

1. how is it that the number of 2007 and 2008 EB2 I numbers are greater than the ones in the inventory. Does this mean that USCIS is so inefficient that they have not yet added all applications to their inventory. that really is bad as they had dates U for 4 months.

The Demand Data also includes CP cases, whereas the Inventory only contains AOS cases. Even though EB2-I has very little CP, that can still be a few hundred per PD year. I don't think it is anything to worry about.

2. For Eb2 I - If you look at the inventory there are 219 apps between sept 1 2004 and Jan 1 2005. So the demand before sept 1 2004 looks to be around 50. Is that right ? if thats correct date should move atleast by some months.

Since dates before September 2004 are Current, there should be no cases for these dates shown in the Demand Data, as they can be approved immediately. A few for CP could be shown where the interview has not yet taken place.

The number shown therefore relates almost entirely to cases with a PD of Sep 1, 2004 to Dec 31, 2004.

But that is currently a static number, consisting of cases submitted before the Cut Off Dates retrogressed, since Cut Off Dates have not passed Sept 1, 2004 since May 2012.

The 222 number shown in the Inventory for Sep-Dec 2004 PD is a good fit for the 225-275 that has been showing in the Demand Data for cases prior to 2005. The difference could be error, or a few CP cases, some of which could be prior to Sept 2004.

There are now (or will be) 8 months (June 2012 - Jan 2013) where no porting cases beyond the current Cut Off Date of Sep 1, 2012 can undergo final conversion by USCIS and show as an EB2 case in either the Inventory or Demand Data. They are essentially invisible.

IMO, they will only become apparent (as approvals) when the Cut Off Dates move forward.

Am I saying anything thats incorrect

[yank]

Q/Spec,

Why porting is in so much limelight that it has stalled the forward movement of EB2 I? Porting is happening from the past 3-4 yrs and you had earlier mentioned it's range is in 5-6K per yr.

Would also appreciate if you can share your thoughts on latest DD.

[sbhagwat2000]

Suggestions inline.

Thanks for your reply. If it should be 0 before sept 2004 then for ROW it should be 0 since its current right? why are they showing demand. does that mean they are going to have a cutoff? also demand will not be 0 right - if an interlinking for pre sept 2004 app is done on say nov 20th then I think it takes about 1-2 months for USCIS to close the case. So that demand will be reflected right?

[Spectator]

Q/Spec,

Why porting is in so much limelight that it has stalled the forward movement of EB2 I? Porting is happening from the past 3-4 yrs and you had earlier mentioned it's range is in 5-6K per yr.

Would also appreciate if you can share your thoughts on latest DD.yank,

I think that is because, with much lower Spillover expected, Porting numbers potentially represent a much higher % of the likely available visas. They therefore have a much greater potential impact on Cut Off Date movement for the FY. In addition, there doesn't appear to be any QSP this year.

The last time that happened (FY2011), EB2-I Cut Off Dates did not move in the first 8 months of the FY

With no figures ever published, it is impossible to say whether the number is decreasing, fairly static or increasing relative to past years.

I think I have already commented on the DD.

[Spectator]

Thanks for your reply. If it should be 0 before sept 2004 then for ROW it should be 0 since its current right? why are they showing demand. does that mean they are going to have a cutoff? also demand will not be 0 right - if an interlinking for pre sept 2004 app is done on say nov 20th then I think it takes about 1-2 months for USCIS to close the case. So that demand will be reflected right?sbhagwat2000,

For CP cases, the visas are allocated based on requests from Consulates before the interview takes place.

Countries other than China an India only show a total demand of 175 visas, which is entirely consistent with CP cases awaiting interview.

[gkjppp]

Not sure how you arrived at that conclusion. It looks we need 9.5k to clear 2007 and possibly more for additional porting. 2008 demand density appears to be over 1.5k per month. To get to June end we would need atleast an addln 9k visas. That appears to be a long shot.

I'm not saying you are wrong but just curious about your assumptions.As you said, you need 18K visas to achieve this date,with present trend you may get 8K spillover from EB1+2k regular EB2I (assume 800 were already used this year)
EB2 ROW +EB4 spillover=5k. So overall you may get close to 15k visas to EB2I, which pushes dates somewhere between Mar to Jun 1,2008.

[justvisiting]

The demand data shows why EB3-P is stuck. And why EB3-C is close to catching up with ROW. Frankly they should be cobbled together. Not sure why they haven't moved the EB3-ROW/C to 2008.

[Spectator]

The demand data shows why EB3-P is stuck. And why EB3-C is close to catching up with ROW. Frankly they should be cobbled together. Not sure why they haven't moved the EB3-ROW/C to 2008.justvisiting,

I've been thinking about when CO might move the EB3 dates as well.

Compared to EB2-IC, I think it is a much more difficult task.

EB2-IC had 98-99% AOS cases, so the effect of CP cases was negligible. That's not the case with EB3. In FY2011, ROW had around 20% CP and China had a whopping, 51%.

Whereas it might take 3-6 months for new I-485 cases to be ready to adjudicate, a CP case can be approved in 1-2 months. Ron Gotcher says that the interview in a CP case normally takes place in the month following the PD becoming Current.

If CO moves the dates forward rapidly, then a large number of late PDs with CP will be approved at the expense of earlier AOS PDs.

So maybe he has to move the dates fairly cautiously over a few months initially, just enough to ensure that the full FY allocation is used and allowing sufficient time for the AOS cases to be adjudicated. He could then make a very large movement (to get a good future Inventory) in September, before retrogressing in October.

It appears that the present backlog for China, Mexico and ROW will be exhausted in about May/June/July, so he will have to think about moving the dates. I don't think he can leave it any later than about March/April at the latest, if he wants AOS cases ready for approval beyond July. It could well be (and need to be) somewhat earlier than that.

The next few Demand Data and VB will answer the question.

[Caramail]

So could you please tell when I could expect to file my I-485? EB3 ROW PD July 15 2007. Is April 2013 a realistic date? I missed the July boat.
Thanks!

[Spectator]

So could you please tell when I could expect to file my I-485? EB3 ROW PD July 15 2007. Is April 2013 a realistic date? I missed the July boat.
Thanks!Caramail,

Welcome to the forum.

I don't pretend to have a good handle on how EB3-ROW will move, but I would be disappointed if your PD had not become Current by the April VB.

[Caramail]

Thank you!!! I feel like I am really close now after waiting for so long.

[Spectator]

Thank you!!! I feel like I am really close now after waiting for so long.Caramail,

I'm sure.

Good luck!

If it follows the same pattern as EB2 China and India, then there are quite a few people with May 2007 onwards PDs who were unable to apply for I-485 in July 2007 because the Labor Certification was not received in time.

Let the forum know when you have finally submitted your I-485.

[Caramail]

Thanks and I will.

[mayde78]

Some good analysis... I am fairly new to this whole analysis... I have an EB2-I PD of Sept 12, 2007. Any insight into when I can expect it to be current?

[vizcard]

Some good analysis... I am fairly new to this whole analysis... I have an EB2-I PD of Sept 12, 2007. Any insight into when I can expect it to be current?

Aug 2013 at the latest

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,

I was looking at EB2 I approvals on trackitt and there seems to be a marked decrease in november and december as compared with october. October as you pointed out had 40 approvals. Nov had 10 and december is also trending the same.

Based on that can we assume that the initial bump that was caused because of the dates being U is now over and what we are seeing now is the regular demand we would see? Going forward if we see the same trends can we hope for some movement starting from the 3rd quarter.

[Spectator]

Spec,

I was looking at EB2 I approvals on trackitt and there seems to be a marked decrease in november and december as compared with october. October as you pointed out had 40 approvals. Nov had 10 and december is also trending the same.

Based on that can we assume that the initial bump that was caused because of the dates being U is now over and what we are seeing now is the regular demand we would see? Going forward if we see the same trends can we hope for some movement starting from the 3rd quarter.It certainly appears that most of the pre September 2004 cases that built up when EB2-I was Unavailable have now been cleared.

I need a little longer to judge what the ongoing monthly rate is. Since the dates are not moving, it could be around the 250 available each month.

The potential problem is that, when the COD is able to move forward, there will be large numbers of Sept-Dec 2004, 2005 and 2006 porting cases that have built up in the meantime.

By the time the dates move, about a year's worth of these later PD porting cases will have built up, amounting to several thousand cases in all probability.

That is going to limit the forward movement, unless CO is very confident there are sufficient numbers available to EB2-I.

Given what happened last year (e.g. EB1 was very heavy late on), I don't see how he can be that confident when he initially moves the dates.

Since USCIS are not providing any information on potential porting numbers to DOS, I think CO will want to "test the waters" to see the numbers for himself.

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,

I think that the demand could be lower than the 250 but the dates are no moving cause USCIS has approved more applications than the quarterly qouta cause of the dates being U and the flood of apps in Oct. Now I guess in the next quarter also they will not move the dates so that they remain within the qouta for 6 months. I think though they will have to move the dates at some point after April so as to as you say "test the waters" otherwise they will be accumulating demand for 2005 onwards. I think they will start moving the dates by 1-2 months post april for that reason.

[Spectator]

Spec,

I think that the demand could be lower than the 250 but the dates are no moving cause USCIS has approved more applications than the quarterly qouta cause of the dates being U and the flood of apps in Oct. Now I guess in the next quarter also they will not move the dates so that they remain within the qouta for 6 months. I think though they will have to move the dates at some point after April so as to as you say "test the waters" otherwise they will be accumulating demand for 2005 onwards. I think they will start moving the dates by 1-2 months post april for that reason.I agree it is possible that monthly demand from pre Sept 2004 could be less than 250 / month for exactly the reasons you stated. Because of the high numbers of approvals in October, the numbers are "ahead of the curve".

That is why I want to wait until making a decision. There is a processing time for these cases and new cases may not yet be reflected. Also, the number approved appears to already be ahead of the notional 757 available in Q1.

[collhyd]

Team,
Based on December 2012 bulletin qesehmk, veni had updated the Predictions on the first page. Can you also once again provide revised predictions based on Jan Bulletin and demand data.
Also can your comment on your estimate of any ballpark figure on porting per month/per year will help forum.

[march272010]

I am on Company A holding my H1, Company B (i was never with this company) has sponsored Green Card on future employment on EB2 and my dates became current and got my EAD. Got RFE on 485 and company A mentioned to me no need to worry we have a position for you here itself and we already applied a GC PERM for you (with similar job title , duties , roles & responsiblities with updated prewailing wage determination) and new I140 was applied and the old EB2 date (Company B I40 Priority date Mar 2010) was ported in Aug 2012 (new company A I-140 was cleared) and the RFE was answered.


RFE content
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The petitioner on your form I-140 , filed on May 2010 is Company B located in state XX. However, on your form G-325 Biographic information form you stated you have been working with Company A from April 2009 to the present. Finally both your forms G-325 and Form I-485 show that you live in state YY.

Please address the discrepancy between employers and addresses and please also submit a currently dated letter from your intended permanent employer, describing your present job duties and position in the organization, your proffered position (if different from your current one), the date you began employement and the offered salary or wage. This letter should be in the original and signed by an executive or officer of the organization who is authorized to make or confirm an offer of permanent employment. The letter must also indicate whether the terms and conditions of your employment-based visa petition (or labor certification) continue to exist.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My question is it possible if i invoke AC21 and goto Company C, Is it possible to join company C on EAD, what are the risks and challenges and what should be the job title, duties, roles and responsibilities. Can anyone have share their knowledge?

Please move it to appropriate thread.

[ashokapex]

I am new in this forum, but seeing very interesting analysis, would like to know what you said Mar to June 2008, my PD is june 2008 EB2, i got my I-485 , but wondering when i can expect GC.
what your analysis said, regarding to this.

[qesehmk]

March272010,

I am 90% confident that you couldve invoked AC21 and continued with Employer A AND even today you invoke AC21 and join C D E F.

The reason I am not 100% confident - is I am not 100% sure that AC21 applies in situation where you are NOT currently working for thesame employer that sponsored your GC. Somebody like Kanmani on this fourm might be able to better answer such question. You may want to ping Kanmani.

Good luck.



I am on Company A holding my H1, Company B (i was never with this company) has sponsored Green Card on future employment on EB2 and my dates became current and got my EAD. Got RFE on 485 and company A mentioned to me no need to worry we have a position for you here itself and we already applied a GC PERM for you (with similar job title , duties , roles & responsiblities with updated prewailing wage determination) and new I140 was applied and the old EB2 date (Company B I40 Priority date Mar 2010) was ported in Aug 2012 (new company A I-140 was cleared) and the RFE was answered.


RFE content
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The petitioner on your form I-140 , filed on May 2010 is Company B located in state XX. However, on your form G-325 Biographic information form you stated you have been working with Company A from April 2009 to the present. Finally both your forms G-325 and Form I-485 show that you live in state YY.

Please address the discrepancy between employers and addresses and please also submit a currently dated letter from your intended permanent employer, describing your present job duties and position in the organization, your proffered position (if different from your current one), the date you began employement and the offered salary or wage. This letter should be in the original and signed by an executive or officer of the organization who is authorized to make or confirm an offer of permanent employment. The letter must also indicate whether the terms and conditions of your employment-based visa petition (or labor certification) continue to exist.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My question is it possible if i invoke AC21 and goto Company C, Is it possible to join company C on EAD, what are the risks and challenges and what should be the job title, duties, roles and responsibilities. Can anyone have share their knowledge?

Please move it to appropriate thread.

[qesehmk]

I am new in this forum, but seeing very interesting analysis, would like to know what you said Mar to June 2008, my PD is june 2008 EB2, i got my I-485 , but wondering when i can expect GC.
what your analysis said, regarding to this.

Ashoka / Mayde - welcome to the forum. The header is always updated. Pl check header for general guidance on the dates movement.

[Spectator]

The rough estimates are based on Trackitt data except for EB4 and EB5.

27% of the 140k visas may be issued in Q1. That is 37.8k.

Cat ------- k
EB1 ------ 8.3


EB2-C ---- 0.75
EB2-I ---- 1.25
EB2-WW -- 13.30
EB2-All - 15.3
EB3 ------ 9.6
EB4 ------ 2.7
EB5 ------ 2.7

Total --- 38.6

38.6k = 102% of the number of visas available, so it is in the correct ballpark.

Other little "factoids" from the Trackitt data.


67% of EB1-I approvals are for EB1C.



21% of EB2-ROW approvals are for EB2-NIW.



9% of EB2-ROW approvals are pre 2010 PD and are probably porting (none in NIW). That rises to 13% if PD2010 was included.



9% of EB2-ROW approvals have Indian Nationality, but ROW Chargeability (none in NIW).

Since the data source is Trackitt, please view the figures accordingly. It has limitations.

For instance, there is very little data in EB1 for Countries other than India. EB1-I approvals accounted for 88% of all approvals on Trackitt, which is not in line with actual approvals in EB1.

Even with the limitations, I thought I would share.

[qesehmk]

Spec this is interesting - I never noticed this!



9% of EB2-ROW approvals have Indian Nationality, but ROW Chargeability (none in NIW).

[Spectator]

Spec this is interesting - I never noticed this!Q,

Glad you found it interesting.

As you might expect, most are from the Gulf States, Kuwait in particular, UAE, Saudi Arabia which historically have had a large Indian working population. Iran also crops up more than I would have thought.

[sbhagwat2000]

Q,

Glad you found it interesting.

As you might expect, most are from the Arab States, Kuwait in particular, UAE, Saudi Arabia which historically have had a large Indian working population. Iran also crops up more than I would have thought.

So do u think eb2ww will have a cutoff? Since they have approved 13000 instead of 5100

[Spectator]

So do u think eb2ww will have a cutoff? Since they have approved 13000 instead of 5100sbhagwat2000,

I'm not sure how you calculate your figures.

EB2-WW yearly allocation is 40,040 - 5,606 = 34,434

27% of that is 9,296.

Q1 includes up to 3 months worth of EB2-WW cases that could not be approved in July-Sept 2012 due to retrogression. It was expected to be high.

CO said retrogression of EB2-WW might be possible late in FY2013, but that would only theoretically happen if they exceeded 34.4k plus any spillover from EB1. That seems unlikely, but it is not impossible. Your guess is as good as mine.

Since no new I-485 could be submitted with fairly recent PD in July-Sept 2012, a large number were probably only received by USCIS in October. Depending on how long USCIS take to process them, there could be a lull in EB2-WW approvals, before a further large number of approvals at a later time. This makes the predictions even harder.

For reference, I think the corresponding number of approvals in FY2012 Q1 for EB2-WW was about 7k.

[honesdirec]

Experts:

Please check this NY Times article

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/us/31vermont.html?emc=tnt&tntemail1=y&_r=1&

Please comment how exhaustion of EB5 quota will impact spillover and the projected movement of dates.

Thanks

[Spectator]

Experts:

Please check this NY Times article

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/us/31vermont.html?emc=tnt&tntemail1=y&_r=1&

Please comment how exhaustion of EB5 quota will impact spillover and the projected movement of dates.

Thankshonesdirec,

Thanks for the article. Jay Peak is one of the highest profile EB5 projects.

It has already been discussed, at least in part.

The figures released by DOS to IIUSA (http://iiusablog.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/IIUSA-FY2012-EB5-VISA-STATS-Source-DOS.pdf) gave a figure of 7,641 EB5 visas issued in FY2012.

CO warned in the December 2012 VB that a Cut Off Date for EB5-C is likely in FY2013.

I think the general consensus is that EB5 will not provide any spillover in FY2013.

[sbhagwat2000]

With EB5 providing no SO the only hope now is EB1. Hopefully that provides some extra numbers. Is there any hope from EB4 ? That also has a yearly quota of 10000. With such low numbers and high demand its no surprise that CO predicted the best case to be 2007. I dont think it will even reach 2006

[Spectator]

sbhagwat2000,

The latest thoughts by various people are always available on Page 1 of this thread.

I am sure they will all be updated in due course.

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,

Based on what you said on the first page (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2013?p=29804#post29804):

How do you think there will be even 6000 visas for EB2 I? If EB1 is going to be close to 40000 or even reach 40000 and EB 2 WW is going to consume their entire qouta then its becoming clear that there will be no spillover to EB2 I. What are your thoughts in that scenario? If zero spillover then I think there will be no movement.

[Spectator]

How do you think there will be even 6000 visas for EB2 I? If EB1 is going to be close to 40000 or even reach 40000 and EB 2 WW is going to consume their entire qouta then its becoming clear that there will be no spillover to EB2 I. What are your thoughts in that scenario? If zero spillover then I think there will be no movement.If , for instance, EB1 used 37k, then that would be about 6k available. Use your imagination - there are certainly enough uncertainties.

In a scenario where there was zero spillover, porting cases with fairly early PDs would certainly use all the available visas. It's impossible to say what the Cut Off Date would be if that were to happen, due to the lack of data on porting numbers by PD.

[shreyasai2004]

Visa Bullitein Page is update with status of

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: February 2013 (coming soon)............................................. ........

[abcx13]

The rough estimates are based on Trackitt data except for EB4 and EB5.

27% of the 140k visas may be issued in Q1. That is 37.8k.

Cat ------- k
EB1 ------ 8.3


EB2-C ---- 0.75
EB2-I ---- 1.25
EB2-WW -- 13.30
EB2-All - 15.3
EB3 ------ 9.6
EB4 ------ 2.7
EB5 ------ 2.7

Total --- 38.6

38.6k = 102% of the number of visas available, so it is in the correct ballpark.

Other little "factoids" from the Trackitt data.


67% of EB1-I approvals are for EB1C.



21% of EB2-ROW approvals are for EB2-NIW.



9% of EB2-ROW approvals are pre 2010 PD and are probably porting (none in NIW). That rises to 13% if PD2010 was included.



9% of EB2-ROW approvals have Indian Nationality, but ROW Chargeability (none in NIW).

Since the data source is Trackitt, please view the figures accordingly. It has limitations.

For instance, there is very little data in EB1 for Countries other than India. EB1-I approvals accounted for 88% of all approvals on Trackitt, which is not in line with actual approvals in EB1.

Even with the limitations, I thought I would share.

I wonder what % of EB2-I approvals are EB2-NIW. That should be a proxy for relative quality of EB2-I candidates and EB2-ROW. My money says that the % of EB2-I-NIW is a lot lower than the % of EB2-ROW-NIW.

[Spectator]

I wonder what % of EB2-I approvals are EB2-NIW. That should be a proxy for relative quality of EB2-I candidates and EB2-ROW. My money says that the % of EB2-I-NIW is a lot lower than the % of EB2-ROW-NIW.abcx13,

As we might expect, given the Cut Off Dates, none of the EB2-I chargeable approvals this year are NIW.

Last year, of 1,470 Trackitt approvals for EB2, only 21 NIW were chargeable to India (1.4%). Even I was surprised by how low the figure was when I just looked it up.

[abcx13]

abcx13,

As we might expect, given the Cut Off Dates, none of the EB2-I chargeable approvals this year are NIW.

Last year, of 1,470 Trackitt approvals for EB2, only 21 NIW were chargeable to India (1.4%). Even I was surprised by how low the figure was when I just looked it up.

The difference is amazing. Sportsfan is probably right that a lot of people would go for EB1A if possible, but then why won't the ROWs too? And the companies/universities have to be willing to file in EB1A/B and I'm not sure they would be. Large companies usually go the conservative route, and I think it would be EB2-NIW.

I've said this before, but without CIR I think EB2-I is basically the new EB3-I. There is no end in sight to the bottomless demand from India.

[Spectator]

The difference is amazing. Sportsfan is probably right that a lot of people would go for EB1A if possible, but then why won't the ROWs too? And the companies/universities have to be willing to file in EB1A/B and I'm not sure they would be. Large companies usually go the conservative route, and I think it would be EB2-NIW.

I've said this before, but without CIR I think EB2-I is basically the new EB3-I. There is no end in sight to the bottomless demand from India.abcx13,

I was surprised it was quite so low, even though I expected it to be much lower than EB2-WW.

I agree with the reasons sportsfan has mentioned, but NIW still has some advantages to medical professionals and because it can be self sponsored.

EB1B won't be an option for many, since it is only for teaching and research and can not be self sponsored like NIW and EB1A.

I suspect that the job profile plays a significant part in the numbers. Indians are highly concentrated in IT professions, which probably do not lend themselves to NIW applications.

I also wonder if part of the difference is due to different age profiles between India and WW applicants.

I've never seen that broken down by Country, but I suspect India has a higher proportion of younger immigrants, since many either seek to be educated in the US and remain, or come here immediately after their education in India.

That may not be true for large parts of WW, where many only arrive here at a later age, having already established a career. That would put them in a better position to claim NIW (or EB1A/B). To a certain extent, the relative numbers of EB1, EB2, EB3 approvals bears this out.

I'm sure the answer is multi-factored.

Even if not self sponsored, NIW has the advantageous that it saves any employer the not inconsiderable PERM costs, as well as potentially shortening the overall process considerably.

[Spectator]

"Analysis" of Information about FY2012 Visa Usage and a "Guess" about Category Numbers

Firstly, sorry for such a long post, but I did want to lay out my logic for scrutiny and so people could understand why I have reached certain conclusions. Please do not quote it in full if you wish to reply.

Since some of the information it is based on is questionable, it is presented, as Ancient Aliens woulds say, on a :

WHAT IF IT WERE TRUE?

basis. :)

A total of 144,951 visas were available to EB in FY2012. By Category, that equates to:

EB1 – 41,456
EB2 – 41,456
EB3 – 41,456
EB4 – 10,291
EB5 – 10,292

7% equates to 2,902 for EB1-EB3 and 720 for EB4-EB5.

So far, only one number is generally available – EB5 used 7,641 visas and contributed 2,651 to spillover.

Everything else has to be conjecture from disparate sources of information.


EB1

We know that it has been reported that EB1 usage was very high at the end of FY2012 and was approaching the limit.

From a meeting with Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the DOS Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division on October 24, 2012 in Washington DC and reported by Murthy:


In FY11, demand for EB1 numbers dropped by more than 25,000. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) expected a similar pattern in FY12, and advised the DOS accordingly. This led the DOS to expect 12,000 to 15,000 excess EB1 numbers, which the DOS factored in when they advanced the EB2 India and China cutoff dates rapidly in FY12. The excess numbers did not materialize, due to an upswing in EB1 demand in FY12.

In fact, numbers dropped "to" 25k, not "by more than" 25k. I mention this because the generally rather loose language used in the Murthy article is a concern.

And comments Charles Openheim made to Roberta Freedman, AILA Students & Scholars Committee member, and Mike Nowlan, Chair of the AILA Business Committee in a conversation on August 30, 2012:


Employment Based (EB)-1 visa usage is extremely high. August 2012 was at a near record high.
…..
The EB-1 visa category could close in September if usage remains this high (close the 40,000).
…..
The 13,000 unused EB-1 numbers that were expected in FY2012, and which would then “drop down” to EB-2, did not happen.


EB2 China and India

In a conversation with Alan Lee on February 23, 2012:


Charles Oppenheim confirmed that he expected approximately 55,000 EB-2 numbers to be available for the year; and that he had approximately 25,000 left to distribute.

That figure can be considered a high number, since it was before the up swell in demand for both EB1 and EB5.

The only article that mentions EB2-IC numbers for FY2012, is a Murthy article dated November 2, 2012.

This is the single most important number!

Unfortunately, it is also the most unreliable!

If it is incorrect, all calculations are also incorrect. Please bear this in mind.

It seems unreliable for a number of reasons:


The meeting was with Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the DOS Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division on October 24, 2012 in Washington DC. An outline follows, which shares Mr. Oppenheim's expectations and analysis for all employment-based (EB) categories for FY13.

Despite the fact that others were in attendance at this meeting, I have been unable to find a single other reference to the EB2-IC number for FY2012. This seems a little strange, given the anticipation for this information.

The article actually says:


In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China.

(my highlighting)

It is an impossibility for China to have received the same number as India. They could not "each" have received 19k i.e. 38k total SOFAD. Additionally, there were just not enough spare visas available for this to be the case.

It is far more likely that the “each” is superfluous and it means that EB2-IC received 19k between them.

Another construction would be that India received 19k. In that case, China would have received about 5.5k visas for a total SOFAD of 24.5k.

Further discussion in the article about numbers for FY2013 suggests that the FY2012 number is referring to 19k SOFAD for EB2-IC.

Both possibilities will be discussed.


EB4

In all likelihood, the withdrawal of Concurrent filing for Religious Workers part way through FY2011, led to a situation where there were insufficient cases ready to be adjudicated in FY2011. As a result EB2-IC benefited from several thousand extra spillover visas. By FY2012, that would have worked through the system and EB4 could be expected to return to the full usage seen in FY2009 and FY2010.

It is possible EB4 contributed some spillover, but they also had a backlog of I-485 cases that normally would have been submitted in FY2011 and were delayed to FY2012 to deal with. FY2011 had less than 12 months cases, resulting in FY2012 having more than 12 months cases to be adjudicated.


EB5

Fairly reliable information says that EB5 used 7,641 visas and contributed 2,651 visas to spillover.


Pulling the Numbers Together

IF EB2-IC SOFAD = 19k

If EB2-IC SOFAD was 19k and 7% equals 2.9k, then spillover to EB2-IC is 19.0 – (2.9*2) = 13.2k

If EB5 contributed 2.7k, then EB1, EB2-WW and EB4 must have contributed 13.2 – 2.7 = 10.5k.

If EB2-WW contributed 6-8k towards that number, then the Fall Down from EB1/EB4 must be 2.5 – 4.5k. Using the lower figure of 2.5k then:

EB1 usage must therefore be 41.5 – 2.5 = 39k ± 1-2k.

Total Fall Down to EB2 is 2.7k (EB5) + 2.5 (EB1/EB4) = 5.2k

EB2 Total Visas becomes 41.5 + 5.2 = 46.7k

EB2-WW usage becomes 46.7 – 19.0 = 27.7k

Higher Fall Down from EB1 only results in EB2-WW numbers increasing, as the EB2-IC figure is a fixed point.


IF EB2-IC SOFAD = 24.5k

If EB2-IC SOFAD was 24.5k and 7% equals 2.9k, then spillover to EB2-IC is 24.5 – (2.9*2) = 18.7k

If EB5 contributed 2.7k, then EB1, EB2-WW and EB4 must have contributed 18.7 – 2.7 = 16.0k.

If EB2-WW contributed 6-8k towards that number, then the Fall Down from EB1/EB4 must be 8 – 10k. Using the lower figure of 8k then:

EB1 usage must therefore be 41.5 – 8.0 = 33.5k ± 1-2k.

Total Fall Down to EB2 is 2.7k (EB5) + 8.0 (EB1/EB4) = 10.7k

EB2 Total Visas becomes 41.5 + 10.7 = 52.2k

EB2-WW usage becomes 52.2 – 24.5 = 27.7k

Higher Fall Down from EB1 only results in EB2-WW numbers increasing, as the EB2-IC figure is a fixed point.

The problem with this interpretation is that:


The total number of EB2 visas is 52.2k. That is close to the maximum of 55k Charles Oppenheim thought available in February 2012 and which undoubtedly reduced due to increased usage in EB5 and EB1.


The other problem is that the EB1 total is lower than the later information suggested it would be.


This could be solved if EB4 contributed significant visa numbers. This seems unlikely since it would result in fewer approvals than in FY2011, when withdrawal of Concurrent Filing for Religious Workers probably caused a temporary shortage of cases to adjudicate.

It could also be solved if EB2-WW approvals were significantly lower and therefore contributed the majority of the spillover i.e. 11.5-13.5k spillover. However, this would be inconsistent with the number of Trackitt Approvals seen and there would have been no need to retrogress EB2-WW if that had been the case.

On balance, personally, I have to favour the Murthy Article meaning a total SOFAD of 19k for EB2-IC.


Finally, I cannot stress enough how much this "analysis" relies on the Murthy article. If the information in it is incorrect, then the basis for all the calculations is too.

Please read the above with that in mind.

I really hope we will see a return to the Visa Statistics being published in January. I, for one, do not think I can stand to wait until August again.

[justvisiting]

ROWers don't go for EB1A because they don't have to. I would be very surprised to find anyone in EB1A from ROW. They can straight away go to EB2-NIW. They are always current. For them, EB2 is easier, and it takes almost the same time.

EB1B has to be filed by the company. I am not familiar with the process, but I assume that people in EB1B have to have high credentials. I contend that some of these people will straight away go to NIW. Why? Because it is current!!! Why not just take a chance instead of waiting for your University/research institute's HR to finally push your papers through?

EB2 being crowded for India has the dual effect of many EB1-I applications and less EB2-I-NIW applications. If I was in ROW, I would have taken a chance in NIW some time back. I have about 15 publications (300+ citations), won an award for best paper, got my name in 3 different RFCs, filed a patent, and I can probably contend my work is in national interest. Because of my visa situation, I had to forgo many opportunities in defense. However I did not bother with NIW because it yields no advantage to me for my wait time, and EB1A was not possible for my qualifications. I can believe there are several others who did not take the NIW route.

I know folks from Germany and South America who have applied for BOTH EB1-A and NIW. The reason? NIW is subjective. The famous NYDOT decision can be applied arbitrarily by USCIS. EB1-A is more clear cut. So often lawyers advise to send both.

[justvisiting]

Excellent analysis Spec. It goes along with my general estimate of "normal" EB2-WW usage being about 32K, and that about 8K were "borrowed" by EB2-I/C in 2012. Of coursel, the problem is that those "borrowed" numbers need to be payed this year...

[tendlya]

Me and my wife have Indian Passport and our daughter is USA born and has valid USA passport along with PIO card. We are travelling to India this week. Do we need any other document for my daughter to travel to India? Please move this to appropriate thread once answered.

[codesmith]

Me and my wife have Indian Passport and our daughter is USA born and has valid USA passport along with PIO card. We are travelling to India this week. Do we need any other document for my daughter to travel to India? Please move this to appropriate thread once answered.

No, you don't need to carry any other docs for your daughter. PIO card is sufficient along with yours and her passport. Have a safe and happy journey. :)

[tendlya]

Thanks codesmith!

[tatikonda]

Annual Report of Immigrant Visa Applicants in the Family-sponsored and
Employment-based preferences Registered at the National Visa Center
as of November 1, 2012

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf


Thank you
Tatikonda.

[tatikonda]

Someone in Trackitt had posted 2012 VB, which caused some confusion. please do not bring it to here..



Thank you
Tatikonda.[/QUOTE]

[redsox2009]

I see fewer 485 applications being approved on Trackitt for ROW's, is it is a sign of quarterly exhaustion of the Visa numbers or the number in general is very low?

also the perm numbers are also low compared to previous months.

If the applications are low can we expect the EB-2 I movement in near future, say in a month or less?

[ChampU]

After a long time, I looked at the "Trackitt Greencard Prediction".. The number of EB2-I applicants ahead of me (PD - 02/2008) changed from roughly 10k to 7k to 8k as per the data taken in Jan 2012, May 2012 and Oct. 2012 respectively. Now the numbers falling between Jan-May 2012 would be the applicants who were approved while the dates were current and the numbers rising after May would be the porting cases.

Since the rise is roughly 1k and assuming that 70% of applicants on Trackitt are from India, it means that

A. Not many folks update their profiles to reflect the porting.
B. Porting is not that high.

Just a thought..

[Spectator]

I see fewer 485 applications being approved on Trackitt for ROW's, is it is a sign of quarterly exhaustion of the Visa numbers or the number in general is very low?

also the perm numbers are also low compared to previous months.

If the applications are low can we expect the EB-2 I movement in near future, say in a month or less?redsox2009,

I have noticed that too.

January is the first month of Q2 so I don't think it is quarterly exhaustion as such.

Approvals for all Categories, not just EB2-WW, have been very slow so far in January. Maybe the IOs have taken an extended vacation.

Regarding EB2-WW, it does seem likely they will slow for a period, followed by another period of rapid approvals before settling down.

Beginning October, USCIS had a backlog of cases submitted up to June 2012 that they had not been able to approve due to retrogression. The majority of these didn't become Current until November.

At the same time, virtually no EB2-WW could submit a new I-485 application until the dates became Current again in November, so USCIS likely received a large number of new applications from November onwards. They aren't likely to be ready to adjudicate in large numbers until the end of January or February. So if USCIS clear the backlog quickly, EB2-WW could be quiet for a period. It doesn't actually mean there are low numbers that will be approved.

Currently, according to Trackitt, there are as many EB2-WW pending as have been approved. Around a third of cases submitted in June 2012 remain to be adjudicated and 50% of the total pending cases have been submitted since the FY began. Of those, about 70% were submitted in November.

I don't follow Trackitt PERM cases, so I can't comment on those.

I'm not convinced that low EB2-WW approvals now will necessarily lead to any release of extra visas to EB2-I in the next month or so.

[zenmaster]

Visa Bulletin Feb 2013 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5856.html)

No Change for EB2I
EB2C goes to 15JAN2008

[isantem]

. If EB3-I gets even 4-5K spillover as demand cliff hits the EB3-ROW, that will be a great news for EB2-I as the porting intensity will reduce drastically.

The people how are porting are from PD 2005 an up. 4-5k spillover will get EB3I just in early 2003. So I am not sure what you mean by drastically?

[isantem]

"this subplot has a little HR 3012 revenge feel to it" So is still the Indian comunnity owns revenge to ROW???? I would say maybe ROW need to do something in revenge...but we are much smarter.

[qesehmk]

Sport - the dates are not moving because even if there is 3K porting prior to where the dates are - that is enough to stall the forward movement. But rest assured that the dates will move beyond 2007 into 2008 for EB2I come Q4 of 2013 of USCIS year.

I haven't done any number crunching, and I am just flabbergasted as the next guy wondering why EB2-I is not moving even a week.

1. It's at least good to see EB2-C racing ahead. By this FY end, EB2-C will easily get into later half of 2008 without any spillover. This means EB2-I can expect all of the spillover this year - whatever it may be.

2. Keep an eye on the EB3-ROW date. It is still not moving aggressively enough for adjudication of enough applications before the end of FY. to fill their quota. I believe we will see a situation where EB3-I gets some spillover because not enough EB3-ROW applications are adjudicated (this subplot has a little HR 3012 revenge feel to it). If EB3-I gets even 4-5K spillover as demand cliff hits the EB3-ROW, that will be a great news for EB2-I as the porting intensity will reduce drastically. In the absence of any event for EB2-I, that's one date I will watch closely.

[SmileBaba]

Hi Q! No offense.. but I'll appreciate if you can share your numbers and facts backing up your prediction of Eb2I reaching beyond 2007 this fiscal year.

Sport - the dates are not moving because even if there is 3K porting prior to where the dates are - that is enough to stall the forward movement. But rest assured that the dates will move beyond 2007 into 2008 for EB2I come Q4 of 2013 of USCIS year.

[qesehmk]

smilebaba no offense at all. Will update header tomorrow.
Hi Q! No offense.. but I'll appreciate if you can share your numbers and facts backing up your prediction of Eb2I reaching beyond 2007 this fiscal year.

[yank]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[bvsamrat]

Question: Can porter from EB3 refile for I-485 in EB2 if the PD is not current for EB2?
(though he might have pending I-485 in EB3 from 2007 fiasco)

If the he can not, it is clear that CO may be creating block for porters by not raising the PD for EB2-I and 4-5 months window is small enough for porters and current EB2-WW to prevent sneak through and then create a healthy predictable spill over to EB2-I/C in coming month(April-May?)


[QUOTE=Spectator;32337]Caramail,
Personally, I hope CO does start quicker advancement sooner rather than later, at least moving to August 1, 2007 to gather the many people who had PERM Certified too late to file in July 2007.

[GhostWriter]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Thanks Yank.

A total increase of 900 cases vs. January demand data. 2009 and 2010 should be newly pre-adjudicated cases. 2008 demand data of 16,500 is higher than the 15,897 number from the Oct-2012 inventory and still increasing, same for 2007. Don't know what is going on there.

Monthly increase by PD
2004 ---- 0
2005 ---- 50
2006 ---- 50
2007 ---- 100
2008 ---- 175
2009 ---- 300
2010 ---- 225
Total ---- 900

[veni001]

Thanks Yank.

A total increase of 900 cases vs. January demand data. 2009 and 2010 should be newly pre-adjudicated cases. 2008 demand data of 16,500 is higher than the 15,897 number from the Oct-2012 inventory and still increasing, same for 2007. Don't know what is going on there.

Monthly increase by PD
2004 ---- 0
2005 ---- 50
2006 ---- 50
2007 ---- 100
2008 ---- 175
2009 ---- 300
2010 ---- 225
Total ---- 900

Increase should be coming from CP cases.

[Spectator]

I've moved the EB3-ROW discussion here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2006-Discussion-About-EB3-ROW-Moving-Beyond-July-2007-in-FY2013).

[GhostWriter]

Increase should be coming from CP cases.

Yes, the extra number should be the CP cases. Thanks Veni.

[GCKnowHow]

Sport - the dates are not moving because even if there is 3K porting prior to where the dates are - that is enough to stall the forward movement. But rest assured that the dates will move beyond 2007 into 2008 for EB2I come Q4 of 2013 of USCIS year.

My hopes are very thin on this. By the time there would be some movement then the rest of porting would consume any visa#, i mean the porting with pd from 2004 to 2007.

[GCKnowHow]

Demand is increasing... Guess they be pure porting?

Below is demand difference between Dec and Jan demand data.

Cumulative.......All Other
Demand Prior To..Countries....China....India....Grand Total
1-Jan-05..............0...........0.......50............ .50
1-Jan-06..............0...........0......150............ 150
1-Jan-07..............0...........0......250............ 250
1-Jan-08............-25........-550......650.............75
1-Jan-09..............0........-425.....1175............750
1-Jan-10..............0........-275.....1850...........1575
1-Jan-12.............25........-200.....2400...........2225

[abcx13]

Question: Can porter from EB3 refile for I-485 in EB2 if the PD is not current for EB2?
(though he might have pending I-485 in EB3 from 2007 fiasco)

If the he can not, it is clear that CO may be creating block for porters by not raising the PD for EB2-I and 4-5 months window is small enough for porters and current EB2-WW to prevent sneak through and then create a healthy predictable spill over to EB2-I/C in coming month(April-May?)

I don't believe that will stop the porters forever. Maybe it will delay their I485 filing temporarily but once the dates move for EB2-I, porters can file too...

[bvsamrat]

This delay will enable to streamline the normal PDs and then again retrogress in August/September. Any porters who apply in the open window are subject to normal processing times(say 3 months) and hence will be added to demand in next cycle

Does this sound logical?


I don't believe that will stop the porters forever. Maybe it will delay their I485 filing temporarily but once the dates move for EB2-I, porters can file too...

[bee369]

Hi guys, need help regarding my H1B extension , my h1b extension was applied in nov 2012 and I had to travel to India in December before it approved. I came back to USA and then I got another I94 but my H1b extension was applied with old I94, now I got RFE for client letter, do I need to submit my i94 which I got at entry to USA again ? While applying RFE can I resubmit my new I94 ? Your response would be appreciated, thanks for help.

[Kanmani]

Hi guys, need help regarding my H1B extension , my h1b extension was applied in nov 2012 and I had to travel to India in December before it approved. I came back to USA and then I got another I94 but my H1b extension was applied with old I94, now I got RFE for client letter, do I need to submit my i94 which I got at entry to USA again ? While applying RFE can I resubmit my new I94 ? Your response would be appreciated, thanks for help.

Just send what is asked for in the RFE. No need to submit those extra documents .

[gs1968]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/us/politics/obama-plans-to-push-congress-on-immigration-overhaul.html?hp&_r=1&

This looks encouraging but how far it will go is unclear

[sbhagwat2000]

Can we get an idea of porting and how many EB2s have been approved for the first quarter by comparing the difference between EB3 DD from oct to Current? So if USCIS has been diligent in removing the EB2 approved cases from the EB3 Queue then those extra approvals must be EB2 I. I did a quick comparison between the DD released in October for the Nov bulletin and the current DD. I see a difference between EB3 numbers of 1550. 750 would be the normal EB3 approvals and hence EB2 I approvals for the last quarter would be ~ 750-800. Thoughts?

[YTeleven]

Can we get an idea of porting and how many EB2s have been approved for the first quarter by comparing the difference between EB3 DD from oct to Current? So if USCIS has been diligent in removing the EB2 approved cases from the EB3 Queue then those extra approvals must be EB2 I. I did a quick comparison between the DD released in October for the Nov bulletin and the current DD. I see a difference between EB3 numbers of 1550. 750 would be the normal EB3 approvals and hence EB2 I approvals for the last quarter would be ~ 750-800. Thoughts?

If I assume the 233/month is the visa quota allocation for EB3I and EB2I each, then I can arrive at 223/month visa issuance to the porters(EB3I to EB2I) in this financial year so far. This is what is evident from the last 4 DDs published. This could be one reason which I think why we didn't see any movement for EB2I in last 4 VBs. On the other hand it is good that the rate is 223/mon so far which is not significant, but this rate might go up when spillover comes in effect and the cutoff dates advance in future.

[sbhagwat2000]

If I assume the 233/month is the visa quota allocation for EB3I and EB2I each, then I can arrive at 223/month visa issuance to the porters(EB3I to EB2I) in this financial year so far. This is what is evident from the last 4 DDs published. This could be one reason which I think why we didn't see any movement for EB2I in last 4 VBs. On the other hand it is good that the rate is 223/mon so far which is not significant, but this rate might go up when spillover comes in effect and the cutoff dates advance in future.

I compared each DD and it seems that in October they approved 400 for EB2 I and then ~ 180 each nov and dec

[qesehmk]

YTel, that's what most of us think. However what I personally get baffled at - for that logic to work - the total porting prior to the current EB2I date should be 233 or more.

Which I find somewhat hard to believe. But I could be wrong.

If I assume the 233/month is the visa quota allocation for EB3I and EB2I each, then I can arrive at 223/month visa issuance to the porters(EB3I to EB2I) in this financial year so far. This is what is evident from the last 4 DDs published. This could be one reason which I think why we didn't see any movement for EB2I in last 4 VBs. On the other hand it is good that the rate is 223/mon so far which is not significant, but this rate might go up when spillover comes in effect and the cutoff dates advance in future.

[Spectator]

Can we get an idea of porting and how many EB2s have been approved for the first quarter by comparing the difference between EB3 DD from oct to Current? So if USCIS has been diligent in removing the EB2 approved cases from the EB3 Queue then those extra approvals must be EB2 I. I did a quick comparison between the DD released in October for the Nov bulletin and the current DD. I see a difference between EB3 numbers of 1550. 750 would be the normal EB3 approvals and hence EB2 I approvals for the last quarter would be ~ 750-800. Thoughts?


I compared each DD and it seems that in October they approved 400 for EB2 I and then ~ 180 each nov and dec

I'm not sure you can necessarily say that and I don't entirely understand where your monthly breakdown is coming from.

If I were analysing the figures, I would do it this way.

The Demand Data for a particular month is based on figures as at the beginning of the previous month. i.e The November DD was as at October 9, 2012 (roughly the beginning of the FY) and the February DD was as at Jan. 8, 2013 Roughly the end of Q1).

The overall change for EB3-I over that period is 47,125 minus 45,100 = 2,025.

But, reductions in the period before 2003 are likely EB3 approvals and reductions in periods after 2004 cannot be EB2 approvals this year, since the dates have never been Current.

Overall change ------ 2,025
Change pre 2003 ------ (750) - This is what we would expect
Change post 2004 ----- (475)

Change 2003-2004 ----- (800)

The monthly breakdown would be

October --- (325)
November -- (425)
December -- ( 50)

Total ----- (800)

That is not consistent with the pattern of Trackitt approvals, which shows a high number of approvals in October, followed by lower approvals in November and December. That would be an expected pattern after a long period of visas being Unavailable. It is possible there were a large numbers of approvals in the period October 1-8, which would not be captured in the figures.

The above can only say that perhaps there may have been 800 approvals.

The Demand Data movement only shows NET movement. A reduction of 100 can equally be 100 cases approved or equally 250 cases approved and 150 additions. There is no way to tell which. Equally reductions can be due to denials and withdrawals, as well as approvals.

[sbhagwat2000]

I'm not sure you can necessarily say that and I don't entirely understand where your monthly breakdown is coming from.

If I were analysing the figures, I would do it this way.

The Demand Data for a particular month is based on figures as at the beginning of the previous month. i.e The November DD was as at October 9, 2012 (roughly the beginning of the FY) and the February DD was as at Jan. 8, 2013 Roughly the end of Q1).

The overall change for EB3-I over that period is 47,125 minus 45,100 = 2,025.

But, reductions in the period before 2003 are likely EB3 approvals and reductions in periods after 2004 cannot be EB2 approvals this year, since the dates have never been Current.

Overall change ------ 2,025
Change pre 2003 ------ (750) - This is what we would expect
Change post 2004 ----- (475)

Change 2003-2004 ----- (800)

The monthly breakdown would be

October --- (325)
November -- (425)
December -- ( 50)

Total ----- (800)

That is not consistent with the pattern of Trackitt approvals, which shows a high number of approvals in October, followed by lower approvals in November and December. It is possible there were a large numbers of approvals in the period October 1-8.

The above can only say that perhaps there have been at least 800 approvals.

The Demand Data movement only shows NET movement. A reduction of 100 can equally be 100 cases approved or equally 500 cases approved and 400 new cases. There is no way to tell which.

I looked at the DD for November that was released in Oct. And I am looking at numbers only before 2005. So in Oct in the DD EB3 before 2005 was 25650. In november for December DD it was 25000. So thats a reduction of 650. Now out of that 250 will be EB3 approvals - the monthly qouta - and the rest of the reductions would be due to EB2 approvals and removal from EB3. So that is 400. Now the current DD has the number before 2005 for EB3 to be 24100. So thats a further reduction of about 900. Out of that 500 would be EB3 approvals the rest 400 would be EB2. So 200 for Nov and 200 in december. So according to this data it is - 400, 200 and 200. It must be definately more than this but not by a lot I guess. Its would be interesting to see the DDs coming up next to gauge the trend. But if this stays then dates will move

[sbhagwat2000]

also bear in mind we are only looking at reductions in EB3 cases. So there are no net new cases here. The reduction directly correlates with reductions in EB2.

[qesehmk]

Check this out

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

shows some interesting data. My interpretation is that these are field offices that no longer receive any 485 receipts for EB based cases. However at times service centers do send cases back to field offices for whatever reasons - or field offices have legacy inventory (probably EB3 and some EB2). That's why the approval data at that level is so low.

Anyway .. but a big question on all of our mind was how big is the inventory at field offices. This pretty much puts that question to bed. The answer is - NOT more than 3K.

[Spectator]

For those interested. I have updated the DOS Demand Data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/214-DoS-Demand-Data?p=11002#post11002) thread to include all Demand Data ever published to February 2013.

Since I can't upload pdf files directly, they are contained in the zip files attached.

[sbhagwat2000]

For those interested. I have updated the DOS Demand Data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/214-DoS-Demand-Data?p=11002#post11002) thread to include all Demand Data ever published to February 2013.

Since I can't upload pdf files directly, they are contained in the zip files attached.

Thanks for doing that. Based on the the difference in the Demand for EB3 from October 9th onwards to Jan 10 it looks like EB2 I approvals were

Oct - > 400
Nov - > 300
Dec-> 100

Lets see if the trend continues lower. Trackitt approvals are trending lower

[Pundit Arjun]

Spec, Can you please give the link to the page where you had calculated and projected when later priority dates(2009 and after) would be current (providing different spillover numbers) ?

Thanks in advance.

~ Arjun

[Spectator]

Spec, Can you please give the link to the page where you had calculated and projected when later priority dates(2009 and after) would be current (providing different spillover numbers) ?

Thanks in advance.

~ ArjunPundit Arjun,

Those were calculated back in FY2012 and are not relevant anymore.

[Pundit Arjun]

Pundit Arjun,

Those were calculated back in FY2012 and are not relevant anymore.

Thanks Spec. Eagerly looking forward for the new ones, whenever it is ready :)

[sbhagwat2000]

Spec,

On Oct 9th the DD that was published had EB3 demand before 2005 as 25650. The DD published on november 10th had EB3 demand before 2005 at 25000. doesnt that mean that leaving aside the qouta of 250 the rest were EB2 approvals that were taken out of the EB 3 Q. so then the EB2 approvals between oct and nov DDs is atleast 400. The same goes for between nov and dec and dec and jan. Now EB3 being static with no new cases added should'nt the net difference between Oct and Jan - the EB3 Quota = EB2 I approvals ? Agreed some may be just applciations that are withdrawn but their number is less. Another thing to note is between Dec and Jan the extra reduction in EB3 was 100. So either EB2 approvals have fallen to their average number after the bump in oct and nov or it is cause of quarterly exhaustion(the former seems more possible). So going forward if we see 100 per month isint there a chance that dates for EB2 will move 3rd quarter? Can you take a guess at this moment as to when the dates will move and where they will land?

[Spectator]

Spec,

On Oct 9th the DD that was published had EB3 demand before 2005 as 25650. The DD published on november 10th had EB3 demand before 2005 at 25000. doesnt that mean that leaving aside the qouta of 250 the rest were EB2 approvals that were taken out of the EB 3 Q. so then the EB2 approvals between oct and nov DDs is atleast 400. The same goes for between nov and dec and dec and jan. Now EB3 being static with no new cases added should'nt the net difference between Oct and Jan - the EB3 Quota = EB2 I approvals ? Agreed some may be just applciations that are withdrawn but their number is less. Another thing to note is between Dec and Jan the extra reduction in EB3 was 100. So either EB2 approvals have fallen to their average number after the bump in oct and nov or it is cause of quarterly exhaustion(the former seems more possible). So going forward if we see 100 per month isint there a chance that dates for EB2 will move 3rd quarter? Can you take a guess at this moment as to when the dates will move and where they will land?It may or may not be so.

Firstly, the figure was 25,075 not 25,000 in the December Demand Data.

Secondly, you make a quite dangerous assumption that EB3-I numbers are static. The evidence is that is not the case, although I think it should be "reasonably" static.

In FY2011, the Demand Data for the period that was Current for EB3-I only dropped by less than 90% of the number of cases actually approved. It looks to be the same for FY2012 if EB3-I received the maximum approvals possible. Clearly, about 10% of approvals were not reflected in the net reduction of the Demand Data. For EB3-ROW, the gap has been as big as 30%. The Demand Data includes a warning that "Therefore, the above totals should not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of applicant demand."

The actual drop in numbers in the Demand Data for 2003-2004 were 325, 425 and 50 for Oct, Nov and Dec respectively.

The drop may give some idea of the numbers involved, but that is as far as it goes in my opinion. I wouldn't be over reliant on it.

[bvsamrat]

My 2 cents - We should see overall picture of demand and also inventory. The dates may move sometime in April/June to build good inventory and then retrogress for last 2-3 months. This way all demand numbers will be streamlined in coming years. But it takes time(frankly quite long but will ease as we go along) as there are many potential porting cases that might come up, which will only clear up(interfiling confusion) till 2007 Eb3 PD quota is also filled up


Spec,

On Oct 9th the DD that was published had EB3 demand before 2005 as 25650. The DD published on november 10th had EB3 demand before 2005 at 25000. doesnt that mean that leaving aside the qouta of 250 the rest were EB2 approvals that were taken out of the EB 3 Q. so then the EB2 approvals between oct and nov DDs is atleast 400. The same goes for between nov and dec and dec and jan. Now EB3 being static with no new cases added should'nt the net difference between Oct and Jan - the EB3 Quota = EB2 I approvals ? Agreed some may be just applciations that are withdrawn but their number is less. Another thing to note is between Dec and Jan the extra reduction in EB3 was 100. So either EB2 approvals have fallen to their average number after the bump in oct and nov or it is cause of quarterly exhaustion(the former seems more possible). So going forward if we see 100 per month isint there a chance that dates for EB2 will move 3rd quarter? Can you take a guess at this moment as to when the dates will move and where they will land?

[sbhagwat2000]

agreed. But it being fairly static gives us a ball park of the numbers we are looking at. The silver lining and tell me if this is incorrect is that I think the number of EB 2 I approvals before sept 2004 are returning to whatever the montly figure was before retrogression. The bump cause by retrogression seems to be over.

[Spectator]

sbhagwat2000,

Yes, I agree that USCIS should have worked through any (or at least the vast majority of) accumulated backlog in the 3.5 months since the FY started.

[Spectator]

I noticed that there is now a link to the FY2012 DOS Visa Statistics (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5861.html).

Some of the tables have been populated, but not the ones we would be interested in yet.

Hopefully, it does mean the figures will eventually be available much earlier than last year (August). Tables V and VI were among the last to be updated.

Table III does show the total number of Visas issued at Consulates to EB.

A fairly noticeable rise in the EB numbers for Philippines from 1,856 in FY2011 to 3,393 in FY2012 is evident. I think that reflects a large rise in EB3 Schedule A approvals for RN and PT, since they often don't qualify for H1B and must Consular Process.

[qesehmk]

LoL!! We have been waiting for this forever! Lets keep checking.... Curious how much SOFAD EB2IC really received last year.
I noticed that there is now a link to the FY2012 DOS Visa Statistics (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5861.html).

Some of the tables have been populated, but not the ones we would be interested in yet.

Hopefully, it does mean the figures will eventually be available much earlier than last year (August). Tables V and VI were among the last to be updated.

Table III does show the total number of Visas issued at Consulates to EB.

[Spectator]

LoL!! We have been waiting for this forever! Lets keep checking.... Curious how much SOFAD EB2IC really received last year.Q,

Me too!!!!!!!

I am very surprised how little has been leaked about the FY2012 figures.

[qesehmk]

Spec - check this out http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12AnnualReport-TableIII.pdf

Looks like the data only shows counselor processing at least from EB perspective.

[Spectator]

Spec - check this out http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12AnnualReport-TableIII.pdf

Looks like the data only shows counselor processing at least from EB perspective.Q,

I think that is what I said, unless I misunderstand your comment.


Table III does show the total number of Visas issued at Consulates to EB.

----------------
You are being polite Spec ;) I didn't read your post quite well the first time!
Q

[triplet]

Is it realistic to expect green card in hand by June 2014 for a priority date of Oct 2008? Between Q's optimism :) and Spec's check on reality :) I assume that would be a good date to plan things around. October's on that cutting edge of being dependent on the next year's refill of SOFAD so I guess June or July of 2014 seems plausible. Arrrrgh... C'mon Obama, do something about that CIR!

[Spectator]

Is it realistic to expect green card in hand by June 2014 for a priority date of Oct 2008? Between Q's optimism :) and Spec's check on reality :) I assume that would be a good date to plan things around. October's on that cutting edge of being dependent on the next year's refill of SOFAD so I guess June or July of 2014 seems plausible. Arrrrgh... C'mon Obama, do something about that CIR!triplet,

Personally, I think CIR is the best bet. If something can be passed, it will have many good things for EB, having looked at the last Bill proposed.

To get through October 2008 from the beginning of FY2013 requires about 20k (excluding porting) based on DOS Demand Data.

Progress through July 2007 should be relatively quick. Then the period through March 2008 is also relatively "light" due to previous approvals last year. The monthly numbers after March 2008 ramp up, since it appears only 10-15% of those were approved previously.

Assuming this year is going to be a low SOFAD year (not everybody will agree with that), SOFAD would probably have to return to somewhere in the 20-25k range in FY2014 for October 2008 to be covered within the FY (judging by the current Demand Data).

It depends on whether you believe FY2013 is only likely to be a a SOFAD blip, or whether you believe we are entering a period of lower SOFAD for a few years. I don't think anyone can tell what the correct answer is. I certainly can't.

[triplet]

Thank you Spec! Hard to predict, I don't feel too good about it either. Wow, the probability/thought of having to wait until 2015 is just scary, oh man. You're right CIR would be the best bet, let us hope they can work it out for all our sakes!

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I'm a keen follower of this thread though lot of times its hard to keep onself abreast of the discussion 'coz of the terms & data involved.

My pd is towards the end of july '08 and I missed last yr's boat in trying to advance/keep a stable job. I'm now considering buyin a house as putting everything on hold forever - on account of GC - makes one feel 'stuck'. Still, one does have to account for when GC would come through. What would be a 'realistic' estimate of when I can expect gc?

Thank you for your time.

[triplet]

I just asked a very similar question a day or two ago and Spec was kind to shed some light on the issue. Just hand tight, you should expect the 'thing' that is definitely worth the trouble maybe before July next year at the latest. Hopefully you will get it even sooner if there are some haphazard movements later this year.

[bvsamrat]

Just published inventory for Jan 2013, EB2-I inventory is 42,585. Same last year Jan 2012 was 12,950.
There would not be any movement on account of building inventory.


I just asked a very similar question a day or two ago and Spec was kind to shed some light on the issue. Just hand tight, you should expect the 'thing' that is definitely worth the trouble maybe before July next year at the latest. Hopefully you will get it even sooner if there are some haphazard movements later this year.

[openaccount]

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I485%20Pending%20Inventory_01_15_2013.pdf

EB1---13k
EB2ROW--13.5K
Total---26.5K+CP
If USCIS adjudicates at the same speed--<3months as they did last year(looks like they are already doing) then getting 5K SO also looks tough this year

[dorais]

By comparing the demand data (from DoS) with this inventory data, should we be able to determine what percentage of applications are pre-adjudicated?
When I look at demand data for EB2-I for PD 2007 it is 5500. But the inventory is only 5177. Generally (especially for PD's in 2009 & 2010), there should be more applications in the inventory data than in the demand data. But it does not appear so.

[dorais]

I would like to understand EB2-ROW demand. Their quota is 34,440 (40040-5600:I&C).
-Let us say they have used up 25% of their quota in the 1st 3 months and 75% (25,830) remains to be allocated. This is a BIG assumption.
-Let us also assume their average monthly demand as 782 (arrived by dividing PD 2012 inventory number 9,386 by 12).
-If I assume that it takes 4 months to approve perm and then 485's would not be issued for PD's after May 2013.

So the maximum approvals should be 13,362 (entire inventory) + 3910 (782 * 5 months Jan to May) = 17,272.

Subtracting 17,272 from remaining visa's 25,830 would give = 8,558 spill across. I am not sure how many visa's go to counsular processing.

Is my logic correct?

[sbhagwat2000]

I would like to understand EB2-ROW demand. Their quota is 34,440 (40040-5600:I&C).
-Let us say they have used up 25% of their quota in the 1st 3 months and 75% (25,830) remains to be allocated. This is a BIG assumption.
-Let us also assume their average monthly demand as 782 (arrived by dividing PD 2012 inventory number 9,386 by 12).
-If I assume that it takes 4 months to approve perm and then 485's would not be issued for PD's after May 2013.

So the maximum approvals should be 13,362 (entire inventory) + 3910 (782 * 5 months Jan to May) = 17,272.

Subtracting 17,272 from remaining visa's 25,830 would give = 8,558 spill across. I am not sure how many visa's go to counsular processing.

Is my logic correct?

this is a disaster. Look at 2004 numbers they increased by more than 200. that means demand is extremely high. in oct it was 418 now its 648. That means even after approving cases the number increased meaning they are just overwhelmed with demand. i am not being pessimistic but with this I dont see how dates would move. With this trend dates for Eb2 I will be U

[openaccount]

I would like to understand EB2-ROW demand. Their quota is 34,440 (40040-5600:I&C).
-Let us say they have used up 25% of their quota in the 1st 3 months and 75% (25,830) remains to be allocated. This is a BIG assumption.
-Let us also assume their average monthly demand as 782 (arrived by dividing PD 2012 inventory number 9,386 by 12).
-If I assume that it takes 4 months to approve perm and then 485's would not be issued for PD's after May 2013.

So the maximum approvals should be 13,362 (entire inventory) + 3910 (782 * 5 months Jan to May) = 17,272.

Subtracting 17,272 from remaining visa's 25,830 would give = 8,558 spill across. I am not sure how many visa's go to counsular processing.

Is my logic correct?
Monthly demand-->758 for 2012 is incorrect as dates retrogressed for 4 months lot of applications were filed from November2012, pending inventory does not represent total number of applications that came in from Nov onwards as it has been only 2 months it takes some time for them to show up in pending inventory(same thing happened with EB2I pending inventory last year) and more over some applications are already approved which does not show up in inventory.

Unfortunately at this point except CO no body knows how many visas are used by EB2ROW each month.

It does take 4 months to get PERM approval but we cannot assume 2013 Jan-May will have same number of applications as 2012 because any one with PD<2012 can apply including EB3-EB2ROW porting.

It would be great if EB2ROW does not use any SO from EB1/EB4(if any), I don't think EB2ROW is going to yield any SO this year

[dorais]

Openaccount - Thanks. I can see that some of the EB2-ROW's early in 2012 would have already been approved and would not be in the inventory report. That number is not correct.

[Spectator]

dorais,

Also bear in mind that the USCIS Inventory only shows an I-485 where the underlying I-140 has been approved. Any concurrent filed cases where the I-140 has yet to be approved will not show in the figures.

Approvals for EB2-ROW appear to have been very heavy in the first quarter due to the previous retrogression - they seem well above the 25% you are assuming IMO.

Historically, EB2-ROW have much higher approvals than your calculation would suggest. FY2009 = 30.1k FY2010 = 24.4k FY2011 = 30.2k.

The figures you have quoted (9,386) are for ROW, not WW, so the allocation for them is 40,040 - (2,803 * 4) = 28,828 not the 34,440 in your post.

PS To me, ROW are those Countries other than ICMP. WW are those Countries sharing the latest Cut Off Date in a Category. As in EB3, not all Countries other than IC necessarily share the latest Cut Off Date. There, WW only refers to ROW & M. M & P can have entirely independent factors governing their figures e.g. % of CP cases or Schedule A.

[dorais]

Thanks Spec. In the inventory report there are 649 cases (EB2- ROW) with PD of Dec 2012. Are these cases filed without Perm (like in NIW)?

[redsox2009]

One thing puzzles me with the Inventory data is..............

Under EB2 WW category I see the 437 applications for OCT 2012, 1,321 applications for NOV2012 and 731 applications for DEC 2012.

How come someone file the 485 application with priority date NOV 2012 and DEC 2012, when the PERMs for NOV and DEC are still not processed.

Can someone throw light on this.

[justvisiting]

One thing puzzles me with the Inventory data is..............

Under EB2 WW category I see the 437 applications for OCT 2012, 1,321 applications for NOV2012 and 731 applications for DEC 2012.

How come someone file the 485 application with priority date NOV 2012 and DEC 2012, when the PERMs for NOV and DEC are still not processed.

Can someone throw light on this.

The quick answer is National Interest Waiver.

Spec, I find it hard to believe that the data only includes concurrent filers with an approved I-140. If that were the case, Dec 2012 should be almost 0 under EB-2.

[justvisiting]

In fact, this is from the FAQ on the inventory

Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?

A: Although this pending inventory report is intended to provide information about demand for an immigrant visa and give potential employment-based immigrants an idea of where they stand in line for a visa, it does not include all potential employment-based immigrants. This report contains principal and dependent employment-based I-485s pending at USCIS Service Centers and Field Offices. It does not include cases pending consular processing at overseas posts. It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing. Please note, therefore, that there are likely many individuals with an earlier priority date than your own who do not currently appear on the inventory, either because they are awaiting consular processing or because they have not filed an I-485.

I interpret the phrase in bold to mean that those with a pending I-140 who have filed an I-485 would be included.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. In the inventory report there are 649 cases (EB2- ROW) with PD of Dec 2012. Are these cases filed without Perm (like in NIW)?


One thing puzzles me with the Inventory data is..............

Under EB2 WW category I see the 437 applications for OCT 2012, 1,321 applications for NOV2012 and 731 applications for DEC 2012.

How come someone file the 485 application with priority date NOV 2012 and DEC 2012, when the PERMs for NOV and DEC are still not processed.

Can someone throw light on this.dorais, redsox2009,

Up front, I will say I have never been able to understand or extract anything useful from the EB1 and EB2-WW USCIS Inventory figures.

I think we have to question quite how accurate the data is (at least at a PD level).

The numbers are more indicative of the pattern of numbers expected (regardless of PD) as the Cut Off Date first moved 01JAN12 in October (and where many have already been approved), then became Current in November.

The numbers (for late PD months at least) do not make sense because, as you say, it would be very difficult to have so many with such late PDs.

Trackitt cases do not reflect the same pattern - for instance, there is only one non-NIW EB2-ROW case pending in the tracker with a December 2012 PD. Even that one is suspect, since the PD is one day later than the RD. It is either wrong or is an NIW/Schedule A case - probably the former. Even today, the numbers of EB2-ROW Trackitt cases drops off markedly after a PD of June 2012. Fair warning - Trackitt does not necessarily reflect the true situation.

[justvisiting]

dorais, redsox2009,

Up front, I will say I have never been able to understand or extract anything useful from the EB1 and EB2-WW USCIS Inventory figures.

I think we have to question quite how accurate the data is (at least at a PD level).

The numbers are more indicative of the pattern of numbers expected (regardless of PD) as the Cut Off Date first moved 01JAN12 in October (and where many have already been approved), then became Current in November.

The numbers (for late PD months at least) do not make sense because, as you say, it would be very difficult to have so many with such late PDs.

Trackitt cases do not reflect the same pattern - for instance, there is only one non-NIW EB2-ROW case pending in the tracker with a December 2012 PD. Even that one is suspect, since the PD is one day later than the RD. It is either wrong or is an NIW/Schedule A case - probably the former. Even today, the numbers of EB2-ROW Trackitt cases drops off markedly after a PD of June 2012. Fair warning - Trackitt does not necessarily reflect the true situation.

There are two possibilities:

1. WW cases are being added based on filing date and not PD. Why the inconsistency, I do not know. This is one way of explaining the "surges" in EB2-WW for June 2012 (right before retrogression) and November 2012 (when dates became current again).

2. WW cases are being added based on PD, but there are a lot of NIW / Schedule A cases. So when dates were about to retrogress and just after they became current, a lot of applications arrived.

[dorais]

There are two possibilities:

1. WW cases are being added based on filing date and not PD. Why the inconsistency, I do not know. This is one way of explaining the "surges" in EB2-WW for June 2012 (right before retrogression) and November 2012 (when dates became current again).

2. WW cases are being added based on PD, but there are a lot of NIW / Schedule A cases. So when dates were about to retrogress and just after they became current, a lot of applications arrived.


The surge in numbers make me think that WW cases are actually the number of cases received in each month. If that is the case, isn't it little bit easy to estimate the future demand based on the trend? We should also be able to add that estimate for the future months with the current inventory to get approximate demand for the rest of the year.

[redsox2009]

Few abnormals in the inventory report

There are 251 for EB2I August 2004. This is kind of cookedup answer for themselves to say they EB2I is not moving.
EB2 WW on trackit shows most of the applications applied pre-July 2012 were approved, but on the inventory, they are showed as non approved.
As stated earlier EB-5 has high demand, in the inventory EB-5 is low.

[tatikonda]

Few abnormals in the inventory report
As stated earlier EB-5 has high demand, in the inventory EB-5 is low.

I believe that, Inventory data does not show already approved 485.
These numbers only reflect waiting for Visa Number cases. Please correct me, if I am wrong.

[bvsamrat]

Though these are moving targets and one can not compare both at any time, experts please clarify

Inventory:I-485 application pending (under consideration cases and adjudicated)
Demand :I-485 application adjudicated.)
If approved and visa numbers allocated. These will not be counted as these are GCs

Hence at a give time: Demand + Under consideration cases = inventory


I believe that, Inventory data does not show already approved 485.
These numbers only reflect waiting for Visa Number cases. Please correct me, if I am wrong.

[Spectator]

After quite a long gap, the PERM Processing times (http://icert.doleta.gov/) have been updated by DOL.

Analyst Reviews ----------------------- October 10 2012
Audits -------------------------------- May 31 2012
Reconsideration Requests to the CO ---- January 7* 2013
Gov't Error Reconsiderations ---------- Current

The Analyst Review and Audit dates posted on iCERT above reflect the month and year in which cases were filed that are now being adjudicated at the Atlanta National Processing Center. *The Reconsideration Request to the CO dates posted on iCERT above reflect the month and year in which cases that are now being reviewed at the Atlanta National Processing Center were appealed. For various reasons, we may be completing the processing of applications filed prior to the month posted on iCERT. If your application was filed more than 3 months prior to the month posted, you may contact our Helpdesk for a status on the application at plc.atlanta@dol.gov.

[Spectator]

The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) figures have been updated for November 2012.

[redsox2009]

The USCIS Dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) figures have been updated for November 2012.



I-140 filing is down and I-485 filing is not high as expected. Hope this trend will continue. If so then we are looking around 40K visas fallover from eb1, 2, 4 & 5

[skpanda]

Can you please provide more information on how you reached 40K numbers? and how will you get numbers from EB2? and where will they go>?


I-140 filing is down and I-485 filing is not high as expected. Hope this trend will continue. If so then we are looking around 40K visas fallover from eb1, 2, 4 & 5

[Spectator]

Any further posts in this thread about CIR will be deleted, rather than moved.

Please post them in this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2033-Discussion-On-Immigration-Reform-%28Comprehensive-Or-Otherwise%29).

[Spectator]

I-140 filing is down and I-485 filing is not high as expected. Hope this trend will continue. If so then we are looking around 40K visas fallover from eb1, 2, 4 & 5I can't agree. I just don't see it that way and I am not sure what you expected.

Once the I-485 figures are adjusted to take account of the fact that not all are EB (only about 45% of those at NSC/TSC are) and to the baseline when there were very few EB2 cases that could be filed, the underlying numbers appear to show quite a strong increase in EB2-WW receipt numbers (assuming they account for the vast majority of the difference).

The I-140 receipt numbers so far in FY2013 are just high. The 8,978 in October is the highest I have ever seen (I have data back to July 2008). Even November's figure of 7,343 puts it on the low end of the top quartile. The average number / month last year was 6,080. Even that is skewed higher, since the last 4 months averaged 7,547 / month. The first 8 months of FY2012 averaged only 5,347 / month.

[redsox2009]

I can't agree. I just don't see it that way and I am not sure what you expected.

Once the I-485 figures are adjusted to take account of the fact that not all are EB (only about 45% of those at NSC/TSC are) and to the baseline when there were very few EB2 cases that could be filed, the underlying numbers appear to show quite a strong increase in EB2-WW receipt numbers (assuming they account for the vast majority of the difference).

The I-140 receipt numbers so far in FY2013 are just high. The 8,978 in October is the highest I have ever seen (I have data back to July 2008). Even November's figure of 7,343 puts it on the low end of the top quartile. The average number / month last year was 6,080. Even that is skewed higher, since the last 4 months averaged 7,547 / month. The first 8 months of FY2012 averaged only 5,347 / month.


My Explanation, digest if it makes sense and ignore if it doesn’t.

There are multiple reasons why the I-140 filing was high in Q4 2012, one of the main reasons is the Perm approval rates in in Q4 2012 are so high.
Here are Numbers for last quarter of the Perm approvals 6026 in Sep and corresponding I-140 fillings 6910, Perm approvals 7980 in Aug corresponding I-140 fillings 7886, Perm approvals 6816 in July corresponding I-140 fillings 8093.
Perm approvals explain why the I-140 fillings are high.
In June 2012, Perm Approvals for I & C are 3638 and for Row are 2313, but the I-140 fillings and 485 fillings are 7297 and 17170. I-140 fillings are higher than the total perm fillings. This could be the fillings from EB1. Whole Q3 ROW Perm approvals are 6122, and 16632 for all countries on other hand the I-140 fillings are high in Q3.
In last quarter total numbers of perm approvals are 20822 and 7786 for Row. If the I-140 fillings came in last quarter and early Oct, those could be coming in mostly from I and C.
Now assuming that these ROW Q4 Perm approvals did not file for I-485 in Q4, as dates got retrogressed, and they filled in Nov 2012. Nov I-485 filling is 16770, which is below the avg compared to previous years and less than the Jun 2012 fillings.
Based on the previous data for I-485 fillings, Monthly High numbers for the EB1 and ROW EB-2 are 2000 and 1500 respectively. Assuming 8k ROW EB-2 were approved and ready from Q3-2012, the number we are see in 24k for EB1 and 26K for Eb2-ROW. Remaining 26k could be coming to Eb-2 I and C. Another standard 7K could be coming from EB4 and EB5.
If Numbers are low then we are looking around 1500 to 1000 for Eb1 and Eb2 respectively, and that brings the 40K number
These are my assumptions and I could be wrong or I could be right, nothing wrong in thinking positive.

[suninphx]

.

Really appreciate your effort putting these numbers together. I would not worry much about whether calculation right or wrong because no one has been 100% right here. :)
And btw even if we get 20K that will make many of us happy.

[bvsamrat]

If 20K many will be happy. If 40K many more will be happy and if 400K (by CIR) all will be happy forever


Really appreciate your effort putting these numbers together. I would not worry much about whether calculation right or wrong because no one has been 100% right here. :)
And btw even if we get 20K that will make many of us happy.

[Spectator]

The problems with the Diversity Visa lottery last year seems to have had a fairly dramatic effect on the numbers, which dropped from 51.1k in FY2011 to 34.5k in FY2012 (a reduction of 33%).

Hardest hit seems to have been Africa as a whole, who account for 63% of the total reduction.

Strangely, Bangladesh numbers dropped 90% (3.1k to 0.3k) and their reduction was more than the total net reduction for Asia.

PS - For those that don't remember, the first Diversity Lottery was flawed because it did not include everyone and was declared void. A second lottery was held at a later date. It appears that people either were unaware they had been selected in the second draw, or simply ran out of time to be processed before the September 30, 2012 deadline.

[mailmvr]

How does that impact the numbers of SOFAD to EB community?

[qesehmk]

It has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on EB.
How does that impact the numbers of SOFAD to EB community?

[dreamer]

Gurus/Friends,

I am posting it in here as this thread has more traffic, please feel free to move it to appropriate thread. I have got an RFE for EAD renewal and posted my question in below thread. I would greatly appreciate your input in this regard.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2042-EAD-amp-AP-Renewal-RFE

Thanks for your time!!

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I have a clarification to seek not regarding the bulletin. So, moderators pls feel free to move it once somebody has answered it.

I just started my 6th yr on H1b & yesterday got to know that my company has been acquired. I would like to know what happens to my H1b/Green card petitions once the closing happens. Given this background, I've the following questions:

1. I presume my new employer would 've to do some amendment filing. WOuld this only be for H1b or for green card too?

a. Amendment for H1b would mean just a form saying Mr. X employed for Y is now working in the same job for Z or would a new LCA and all the process associated with a fresh H1b filing need to be followed.

b. Similar question for GC process. Would they 've to re-start the labor process (PWD, test the market etc) once the closing happens?

Thanks.

[geevikram]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[qesehmk]

Thanks geevikram. The number of EB2 2007 and prior is 7,300

This confirms that 2007 should easily cruise through this year after Jun 2013 when extra visas from EB5 EB1 and EB2ROW start coming into EB2I.

This also confirms that EB2I upgrades prior to 2007 from EB3I are now slowing down and may actually dip below 3K as more and more EB3 might already have upgraded. This doesn't mean that overall EB3I -> EB2I upgrades are slowing down. That is unknown. But everything else being equal overall porting should remain 3-5K (excluding any ROW porting which i have started to suspect could be as high as 10K. The reason I believe that is because ROW has a PERM discrepancy between EB2 approvals and actual PERM approvals).

Anyway - the key takeaway is - there will be a massive movement in EB2I at the end of 2013 Fiscal i.e between Jun-Sep 2013. IMHO the movement should be upto Sep 2008. Should be minimum Mar 2008.


http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[YTeleven]

From the above released DD, this will be the cutoff dates for EB2-I & EB3-I : 01-Sep-04 & 22-Nov-02 respectively for Mar'13 unless CO wants to issue more visas then the monthly quota.

[GCKnowHow]

The demand had increased for EB2 for all years, and this increase is on top of the visas issued last month.


http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[venkat]

Did anyone notice that the demand data prior to 2008 got reduced for the first time this year?
It has dropped from 8,050 to 7,300

Do you think this could be because of cleaning/removing of some old EB2 cases which are no longer applicable?
or they are just correcting the mistakes made earlier?

[YTeleven]

There is no such decrease, you have misread the earlier figure 7050 with 8050.

Did anyone notice that the demand data prior to 2008 got reduced for the first time this year?
It has dropped from 8,050 to 7,300

Do you think this could be because of cleaning/removing of some old EB2 cases which are no longer applicable?
or they are just correcting the mistakes made earlier?

[username]

Demand data for March 2013
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[qbloguser]

Saw this message on USCIS page when I logged in today:

"Expect a 30-45-day delay between when your application or petition is filed and when your information is available in Case Status Online, depending on the volume of applications USCIS receives."

Has anyone seen this before?

[ksur23]

Apologies if posting in the wrong forum.

My status for 485 says "initial review"on USCIS site, my pd is jan 2009 and I applied last year (feb 2009). Is it normal to be in this status?

thanks.

[qesehmk]

absolutely ok ksur. mine said so until i actually received my gc! good luck.
Apologies if posting in the wrong forum.

My status for 485 says "initial review"on USCIS site, my pd is jan 2009 and I applied last year (feb 2009). Is it normal to be in this status?

thanks.

[ksur23]

absolutely ok ksur. mine said so until i actually received my gc! good luck.

Appreciate the response, thanks!

[Easwar]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5885.html

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS (April – June)

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

Worldwide dates:
F1: Three or four weeks
F2A: Three to five weeks
F2B: Three to five weeks
F3: One or two weeks
F4: Up to two weeks

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current

China: Three to six weeks

India: No movement. Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high. Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit.

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Four to six weeks
China: Two to three months
India: Up to two weeks
Mexico: Four to six weeks
Philippines: Up to one week

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current

Item D of the December 2012 Visa Bulletin alerted readers that a China cut-off date might be imposed at some point during the second half of the fiscal year. Currently there is no reason to believe that it will be necessary to establish a China Employment Fifth preference category cut-off date during FY-2013, since demand over first six months of FY-2013 has now averaged out to a manageable level.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories are for what is likely to happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables which can change at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

[Easwar]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5885.html

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS (April – June)

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

Worldwide dates:
F1: Three or four weeks
F2A: Three to five weeks
F2B: Three to five weeks
F3: One or two weeks
F4: Up to two weeks

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current

China: Three to six weeks

India: No movement. Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high. Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit.

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Four to six weeks
China: Two to three months
India: Up to two weeks
Mexico: Four to six weeks
Philippines: Up to one week

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current

Item D of the December 2012 Visa Bulletin alerted readers that a China cut-off date might be imposed at some point during the second half of the fiscal year. Currently there is no reason to believe that it will be necessary to establish a China Employment Fifth preference category cut-off date during FY-2013, since demand over first six months of FY-2013 has now averaged out to a manageable level.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories are for what is likely to happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables which can change at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

[redsox2009]

Visa Bulletin out

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5885.html

It pointed worst prediction

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS (April – June)

"India: No movement. Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high. Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit. "

[yank]

Can we expect some number from EB5 in the last Quarter?

Employment Fifth: Current

Item D of the December 2012 Visa Bulletin alerted readers that a China cut-off date might be imposed at some point during the second half of the fiscal year. Currently there is no reason to believe that it will be necessary to establish a China Employment Fifth preference category cut-off date during FY-2013, since demand over first six months of FY-2013 has now averaged out to a manageable level.

[geevikram]

Visa Bulletin out

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5885.html

It pointed worst prediction

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS (April – June)

"India: No movement. Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high. Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit. "

I don't think spillover was factored into it. The key is "to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit".

[tatikonda]

Saw this message on USCIS page when I logged in today:

"Expect a 30-45-day delay between when your application or petition is filed and when your information is available in Case Status Online, depending on the volume of applications USCIS receives."

Has anyone seen this before?

From Ron's twits - looks like USCIS website is crushed with incoming work load.

http://www.lexisnexis.com/Community/immigration-law/blogs/outside/archive/2013/02/11/incoming-workload-crushes-uscis-online-case-status-service.aspx

[yank]

Is it due to porting..Dates are in that range (2004-2005) for years now..still people are porting to EB2

D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS (April – June)

"India: No movement. Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high. Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit. "

[qesehmk]

Exactly - that's the bottomline. So sit tight till Jun/Jul and there will be forward movement.
I don't think spillover was factored into it. The key is "to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit".

[idiotic]

Pushing back EB2-I dates by another few years will make a good argument for EB based immigration reform :)

[sdesh005]

Pushing back EB2-I dates by another few years will make a good argument for EB based immigration reform :)
I'm not sure if that's they way we want to push ahead our agenda! I'll take forward movement with CIR because we can get that. ;)

[SeekingGC2013]

Exactly - that's the bottomline. So sit tight till Jun/Jul and there will be forward movement.
Hey this is in regards to the below post
@qesehmk - GURU

based on the recent update on March Bulletin - and expectancy that dates would move in 4th Qtr of Fiscal Year2013 - after the dates are moved forward would they retrogress again?
My PD - 05/08 - EB2 - what are the chances that i can get my Green Card before Dec 2013? Can you please give your best Guesstimate and analysis?

Would greatly Appreciate your response.

Exactly - that's the bottomline. So sit tight till Jun/Jul and there will be forward movement.
Originally Posted by geevikram
I don't think spillover was factored into it. The key is "to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit".

[qesehmk]

SeeingGC - What you have today is DoS is holding back EB2I dates on a technicality. The technicality being the definition of oversubscription in a category for a country. So EB2I has probably more than 3K (ie. its annual quota) demand prior to where the visa dates are today. That gives VO enough ammo to hold the entire country dates prior to whatever 2004/2005 dates they are today. The reality is all of that come Jun - EB2I will receive SOFAD (based on historical precedence) more than 13-15K which is enough to move EB2I dates into 2008. That's the logic / rationale.
Hey this is in regards to the below post
@qesehmk - GURU

based on the recent update on March Bulletin - and expectancy that dates would move in 4th Qtr of Fiscal Year2013 - after the dates are moved forward would they retrogress again?
My PD - 05/08 - EB2 - what are the chances that i can get my Green Card before Dec 2013? Can you please give your best Guesstimate and analysis?

Would greatly Appreciate your response.

Exactly - that's the bottomline. So sit tight till Jun/Jul and there will be forward movement.
Originally Posted by geevikram
I don't think spillover was factored into it. The key is "to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit".

[Spectator]

FY2012 Visa Approvals

144,951 visas were available to EB in FY2012
That represents 41,456 for each of EB1-EB3
7% in each of EB1-EB3 was 2,902

226,000 visas were available to FB in FY2012

FY2012-EB Visa Approvals

Total EB Approvals

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,183 --- 5,858 --- 2,827 ----- 117 -- 6,124 --- 21,109
INDIA ----- 9,506 -- 19,726 --- 2,804 ----- 600 ----- 77 --- 32,713
MEXICO ---- 2,054 ----- 823 --- 3,748 ----- 881 ----- 81 ---- 7,587
PHIL. ------- 266 --- 2,408 --- 6,479 ----- 350 ------ 1 ---- 9,504
ROW ------ 21,378 -- 21,778 -- 23,691 --- 5,530 -- 1,358 --- 73,735

TOTAL ---- 39,387 -- 50,593 -- 39,549 --- 7,478 -- 7,641 -- 144,648

303 visas were wasted in EB (0.2%)

EB2 Approvals

THEORETICAL SPILLOVER

EB1 --------- 2,069
EB2-M ------- 2,079
EB2-P --------- 494
EB2-ROW ----- 8,070
EB4 --------- 2,813
EB5 --------- 2,651

TOTAL ------ 18,176

SPILLOVER USED

Spillover -- 19,780
EB2-IC ------ 5,804

SOFAD ------ 25,584

SPILLOVER
WASTAGE ---- (1,604) A negative number indicates that more spillover was used than was available from EB1, EB2, EB4 & EB5

SPILLOVER ALLOCATION

--------------- No. ---- % --
CHINA ------- 2,956 -- 14.94%
INDIA ------ 16,824 -- 85.06%

TOTAL ------ 19,780 - 100.00%


EB3 Approvals

EB3-China received 225 more visas than their allocation of 2,602 visas (8.65%).
EB3-India received 98 less visas than their allocation of 2,902 visas (3.38%).
EB3-Mexico received 846 more visas than their allocation of 2,902 visas (29.15%).
EB3-Philippines received 3,577 more visas than their allocation of 2,902 visas (123.26%).
EB3-ROW received 7,538 less visas than their allocation of 30,956 visas (24.14%).
Adjusted for M&P usage, EB3-ROW received 3,115 less visas that expected (12.61%).

EB3 received 1,907 less visas than the allocation of 41,456 (4.60%).


EB1
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China --------- 6,183 -- 15.70% ---- 273 -- 4.42% ----- 6.83%
India --------- 9,506 -- 24.13% ----- 79 -- 0.83% ----- 1.51%
Mexico -------- 2,054 --- 5.21% ----- 19 -- 0.93% ----- 3.81%
Philippines ----- 266 --- 0.68% ----- 22 -- 8.27% ----- 8.77%
ROW ---------- 21,378 -- 54.28% -- 1,141 -- 5.34% ----- 7.90%

Total -------- 39,387 - 100.00% -- 1,534 -- 3.89% ----- 6.39%


EB2
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China --------- 5,858 -- 11.58% ----- 78 -- 1.33% ----- 0.80%
India -------- 19,726 -- 38.99% ---- 140 -- 0.71% ----- 0.55%
Mexico ---------- 823 --- 1.63% ----- 21 -- 2.55% ----- 1.57%
Philippines --- 2,408 --- 4.76% ---- 254 - 10.55% ----- 7.90%
ROW ---------- 21,778 -- 43.05% ---- 905 -- 4.16% ----- 4.02%

Total -------- 50,593 - 100.00% -- 1,398 -- 2.76% ----- 2.52%


EB3
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China --------- 2,827 --- 7.15% -- 1,423 - 50.34% ---- 58.69%
India --------- 2,804 --- 7.09% ---- 231 -- 8.24% ----- 6.57%
Mexico -------- 3,748 --- 9.48% ---- 248 -- 6.62% ----- 5.20%
Philippines --- 6,479 -- 16.38% -- 3,027 - 46.72% ---- 38.32%
ROW ---------- 23,691 -- 59.90% -- 3,381 - 14.27% ---- 19.21%

Total -------- 39,549 - 100.00% -- 8,310 - 21.01% ---- 20.21%


EB4
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China ----------- 117 --- 1.56% ------ 3 -- 2.56% ---- 20.51%
India ----------- 600 --- 8.02% ---- 138 - 23.00% ---- 38.96%
Mexico ---------- 881 -- 11.78% ------ 5 -- 0.57% ----- 3.09%
Philippines ----- 350 --- 4.68% ----- 89 - 25.43% ---- 28.62%
ROW ----------- 5,530 -- 73.95% ---- 982 - 17.76% ---- 21.93%

Total --------- 7,478 - 100.00% -- 1,217 - 16.27% ---- 21.31%


EB5
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China --------- 6,124 -- 80.15% -- 5,683 - 92.80% ---- 92.73%
India ------------ 77 --- 1.01% ----- 28 - 36.36% ---- 32.43%
Mexico ----------- 81 --- 1.06% ----- 14 - 17.28% ----- 7.55%
Philippines ------- 1 --- 0.01% ------ 1 100.00% ----- 0.00%
ROW ----------- 1,358 -- 17.77% ---- 952 - 70.10% ---- 65.42%

Total --------- 7,641 - 100.00% -- 6,678 - 87.40% ---- 83.14%


EB1 - EB5
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China -------- 21,109 -- 14.59% -- 7,460 - 35.34% ---- 23.66%
India -------- 32,713 -- 22.62% ---- 616 -- 1.88% ----- 1.97%
Mexico -------- 7,587 --- 5.25% ---- 307 -- 4.05% ----- 4.43%
Philippines --- 9,504 --- 6.57% -- 3,393 - 35.70% ---- 24.33%
ROW ---------- 73,735 -- 50.98% -- 7,361 -- 9.98% ---- 11.24%

Total ------- 144,648 - 100.00% - 19,137 - 13.23% ---- 10.84%


EB1 - EB3
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2011
China -------- 14,868 -- 11.48% -- 1,774 - 11.93% ---- 12.40%
India -------- 32,036 -- 24.73% ---- 450 -- 1.40% ----- 1.43%
Mexico -------- 6,625 --- 5.11% ---- 288 -- 4.35% ----- 4.52%
Philippines --- 9,153 --- 7.07% -- 3,303 - 36.09% ---- 24.16%
ROW ---------- 66,847 -- 51.61% -- 5,427 -- 8.12% ----- 9.68%

Total ------- 129,529 - 100.00% - 11,242 -- 8.68% ----- 8.39%


FAMILY BASED
--------------- Total ---- % --
China -------- 17,839 --- 8.60%
India -------- 12,149 --- 5.85%
Mexico ------- 41,975 -- 20.23%
Philippines -- 16,727 --- 8.06%
ROW --------- 118,845 -- 57.27%

Total ------- 207,535 - 100.00%

18,465 visas could be available to EB in FY2013.

EB & FB
--------------- Total ---- % --
China -------- 38,948 -- 11.06%
India -------- 44,862 -- 12.74%
Mexico ------- 49,562 -- 14.07%
Philippines -- 26,231 --- 7.45%
ROW --------- 192,580 -- 54.68%

Total ------- 352,183 - 100.00%


Note:- I do not have a problem if portions of this data are reproduced on other websites. It is not fair to simply copy/paste everything.

However, it is a condition that, if the data is reproduced, a web link back to this page is included in any such post.

If a site forbids linking to this forum, then no content may be reproduced.

[gc_soon]

Spec,
Your comment, "18,465 visas could be available to EB in FY2013." - does it mean this could be available as spill over to EB in 2013 FY? If so, how does it get distributed across categories/countries?
Based on the data above and new bulletin, is there any change to your predictions?

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec - finally.

First this completely debunks CO 's claim that ROW would have to be retrogressed. The fact is EB2ROW didn't even use their own quota as we always believed. I am glad our call on that one was right.

On the other hand, what also should be comforting to EB2I community is that, the overall visa consumption is not at all abnormal compared to other years. That includes EB5 which indeed consumed more but not all of their own quota. EB1 was also as expected because in 2011 kazarian memo helped EB2 but it had only delayed as opposed to removed the demand.

So overall going forward - I think people should expect exactly the same performance in 2013 - perhaps 4K less. But even with that the dates will fly into Q2 2008 at least.

[qesehmk]

Header of the thread updated.

[Spectator]

Spec,
Your comment, "18,465 visas could be available to EB in FY2013." - does it mean this could be available as spill over to EB in 2013 FY?
Based on the data above and new bulletin, is there any change to your predictions?The number of visas available to FB in FY2012 was 226,000.

They only used 207,535 visas.

Unused visas in FB are added to the number of EB visas available in the following FY.

In theory, EB could have 140,000 + 18,465 = 158,465 visas available for FY2013. There will be some small adjustments to that figure.

That would make the numbers available to each Category as Follows:

EB1 - 45,321
EB2 - 45,321
EB3 - 45,321
EB4 - 11,251
EB5 - 11,251

This would certainly increase the potential spillover enormously and make a huge difference to any calculations I have made to date.

It would also increase the 7% figure to 3,172 in each of EB1-EB3.

I'll work through the figures when time permits.

[qesehmk]

Now that would be unbelievable spec!! That would potentially move dates into 2009 for EB2I.


The number of visas available to FB in FY2012 was 226,000.

They only used 207,535 visas.

Unused visas in FB are added to the number of EB visas available in the following FY.

In theory, EB could have 140,000 + 18,465 = 158,465 visas available for FY2013.

[gc_soon]

Thanks Spec, that's positive to hear. Looking forward to the revised calculations.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec - finally.

First this completely debunks CO 's claim that ROW would have to be retrogressed. The fact is EB2ROW didn't even use their own quota as we always believed. I am glad our call on that one was right.Q,

EB2-ROW would probably have used their entire allocation (or very close to it) in FY2012 had the dates not been retrogressed.

EB2-Philippines would certainly have exceeded theirs.

Only EB2-Mexico (as expected) would not have used their full allocation.

Taken as a whole, without retrogression, EB2-WW might have contributed 3k spillover at most in FY2012 and EB2-IC would have received about 7-8k less (which now falls through to FY2013).

Had there not been the prospect of extra visas from FB, EB2-WW retrogression at the end of FY2013, while certainly unlikely, was not impossible, given they have a full year's demand plus the 7-8k.

I think that more disturbing is the fact that for the second year running, EB3 (and really it's EB3ROW) have effectively subsidized EB2-IC and EB3 did not receive the full numbers due to them by a wide margin.

[qesehmk]

Spec - I think that if at all EB2ROW ran out of visas it was certainly because they were already allocated to EB2IC between Oct-Feb of FY 2012. Yet I think CO used that as a scare tactic for EB2I in particular. If you look at full year consumption - EB2ROW is not abnormal compared to other years. Perhaps it wouldve required 3K more but certainly not more. So coming back to this year - yes indeed that 3K will be carried over and perhaps EB2ROW may not yield any SOFAD. Will have to look into labor/140 data to figure that out. But the FB visas is a welcome news. I was afraid that 207K is the CP only number. But not so - that's total and so yes indeed 19K potential visas are awaiting for EB category. Whether CO will release them - is a different story ;)

p.s. - EB3ROW subsidy is minor spec. I wouldn't read too much into it.


Q,

EB2-ROW would probably have used their entire allocation (or very close to it) in FY2012 had the dates not been retrogressed.

EB2-Philippines would certainly have exceeded theirs.

Only EB2-Mexico (as expected) would not have used their full allocation.

Taken as a whole, without retrogression, EB2-WW might have contributed 3k spillover at most in FY2012 and EB2-IC would have received about 7-8k less (which now falls through to FY2013).

Had there not been the prospect of extra visas from FB, EB2-WW retrogression at the end of FY2013, while certainly unlikely, was not impossible, given they have a full year's demand plus the 7-8k.

I think that more disturbing is the fact that for the second year running, EB3 (and really it's EB3ROW) have effectively subsidized EB2-IC and EB3 did not receive the full numbers due to them by a wide margin.

[harapatta2012]

Spec,

Wow what a news!!!!!!!

This seems to be THE news in almost 11 months now,,atleast since March 27th, 2012.

So FB WOULD provide 18,465 or even less, say 15,000, to EB, that still huge!!!

Now only thing is how likely would that be..That is what is likelihood that FB extra visas would 100% come to EB?

The news is great...needs more ..wows and ahhaa's...!

Thanks for posting such great news.


The number of visas available to FB in FY2012 was 226,000.

They only used 207,535 visas.

Unused visas in FB are added to the number of EB visas available in the following FY.

In theory, EB could have 140,000 + 18,465 = 158,465 visas available for FY2013. There will be some small adjustments to that figure.

That would make the numbers available to each Category as Follows:

EB1 - 45,321
EB2 - 45,321
EB3 - 45,321
EB4 - 11,251
EB5 - 11,251

This would certainly increase the potential spillover enormously and make a huge difference to any calculations I have made to date.

It would also increase the 7% figure to 3,172 in each of EB1-EB3.

I'll work through the figures when time permits.

[suninphx]

Spec- many thanks for all detailed number calculations and bringing in some great news !

[Spectator]

Spec,

Wow what a news!!!!!!!

This seems to be THE news in almost 11 months now,,atleast since March 27th, 2012.

So FB WOULD provide 18,465 or even less, say 15,000, to EB, that still huge!!!

Now only thing is how likely would that be..That is what is likelihood that FB extra visas would 100% come to EB?

The news is great...needs more ..wows and ahhaa's...!

Thanks for posting such great news.harapatta,

I agree it is great news. I was surprised that not all the FB visas were used in FY2012.

It won't be announced officially until about the August VB, since DOS have to wait for the adjustment figures from USCIS and they always take a very long time to provide them. Nonetheless, CO must be aware of this.

The extra visas coming to EB in the next FY is the CURRENT LAW, so there should be no doubt that it should happen.

INA 203(d)

d) Worldwide level of employment-based immigrants


(1) The worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is equal to-


(A) 140,000 plus


(B) the number computed under paragraph (2).


(2) (A) The number computer under this paragraph for fiscal year 1992 is zero.


(B) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1993 is the difference (if any) between the worldwide level established under paragraph (1) for the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under section 203(b) during that fiscal year.


(C) The number computed under this paragraph for a subsequent fiscal year is the difference (if any) between the maximum number of visas which may be issued under section 203(a) (relating to family-sponsored immigrants) during the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under that section during that year.

where 203(a) is Preference Allocation for Family-Sponsored Immigrants.

In FY2012, EB received an extra 4,951 visas from FB. The difference in the FY2011 DOS Visa Statistics for FB was 4,958. There are some very minor adjustments to be made (to do with parolees).

[Spectator]

Spec- many thanks for all detailed number calculations and bringing in some great news !suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

[SeekingGC2013]

Hey Spec - thats amazing news - finally after the State Of Union - it looks like Legal immigration is also being prioritized - hopefully some legalization changes should also make a lot of people happy in the next 6-7 months.




suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

[gc_soon]

suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

Spec, I appreciate all the work you and Q put into analysis. With no transparency from the CO, your analysis shows how the near future may look like. Thanks once again for your work.

[suninphx]

If CO knows that these additional visas will be available for allocation ...then I am wondering what made him to put those comments in visa bulletin about EB2I?

[gc_soon]

If CO knows that these additional visas will be available for allocation ...then I am wondering what made him to put those comments in visa bulletin about EB2I?

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think CO does much analysis. For example, even though the I485 inventory released some time in FY2012 (when the PDs were moving forward rapidly) showed huge demand for EB2-I, CO made the comment that every effort will be made to bring back the dates to May 2010 in FY2013. I guess he looked only at Demand Data.
I'm just afraid that he might open the gate too close to end of FY, and visas get approved randomly instead of FIFO, and then dates retrogress back in FY 2014.

[nishant2200]

If CO knows that these additional visas will be available for allocation ...then I am wondering what made him to put those comments in visa bulletin about EB2I?

I think the comments are put without regards to SO.

[kd2008]

suninphx,

I know some people think I am a doomsayer at times - it's very nice to actually bear good news once in a while.

Spec, could you please help answer this question for me?

In the past, when there was a preadjudicated pipeline available for EB2IC, CO has at most moved dates that might approve 8K/month I think. Given the possibility of FB spillover to EB, shouldn't CO then start moving dates before July visa bulletin? If so, then does it contradict his prediction for movement in Apr-June?

[YTeleven]

I agree with Q's logic. Here is some info to support that:
As I said earlier from the DD analysis, there is 250 visas allocation during Oct'12 for EB2-I and from Nov'12 to till now all the EB2-I visas are issued to the EB3-I to EB2-I porters and the rate is approxmately equal to the monthly quota of EB2-I and hence we are not seeing any movement in EB2-I. This will continue till the spillover comes into the picture in coming months.
Here is the past history of the EB2-I visa allocations:
----------------------------------------------------
2007---2008---2009---2010---2011---2012---2013
-----------------------------------------------------
6k -----15k ----10k----20k ----24k ----20k-----???
----------------------------------------------------
from the above data any statistical analyst can guess the 2013 figures as 20k without having any knowledge of EB comminity.
I would guess it could be more than that and the reason is the PERM approvals trend for INDIA:
----------------------------------------
2009----2010----2011-----2012----2013
----------------------------------------
39% ----41%-----52% -----56% ----57%
----------------------------------------
Imagine that if this trend goes to 80% in future, what happens? There will not be any country which will use its full annual reserved quota of 7% and all those visas spill over to EB2-I untill it becomes current.
This is the most important trend that made possible to move the EB2-I backlogs in the last 2 years and this will continue further untill EB2-I becomes current.
We no need to worry about the EB3-I porting even they steal some EB2-I visas by way of porting still we will reach to 2009 levels by the end of the 2013. All we need to do is sit tightly and experience the rollar coaster ride in coming months.


SeeingGC - What you have today is DoS is holding back EB2I dates on a technicality. The technicality being the definition of oversubscription in a category for a country. So EB2I has probably more than 3K (ie. its annual quota) demand prior to where the visa dates are today. That gives VO enough ammo to hold the entire country dates prior to whatever 2004/2005 dates they are today. The reality is all of that come Jun - EB2I will receive SOFAD (based on historical precedence) more than 13-15K which is enough to move EB2I dates into 2008. That's the logic / rationale.