EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Jun1308]

Gurus,

With the EB2 dates remaining same in October, do we still see any percentage of applications < June 15 2008 (including porting) untouched or not picked by officers before October end ?

[vizcard]

SOFAD is something that we always know really well after the fact. So until then it's all conjecture. 16 or 19K is the same thing and I would imagine he date movement had baked these things in. For CO to move date in Oct he either should've already known that he made an unsustainable movement in prior year just to make sure no wastage. So whatever that number was - 16-19K or something else - if CO calibrated it well then, then he can't move until new data shows that in October there is too much demand compared to supply. Since OCT bulletin is published in Sep he chose to not move dates at all for EB2I. But he did so for EB2C because of the new numbers that became available with new year.

p.s.- On another note - why would there be 2.5K porting in just one single month. I didn't understand that part.

You are giving CO a lot of credit :)

what I mean by 2.5k is that there are these porting cases that were previously "invisible" to CO that are just a "flip the switch" exercise the moment the dates got current.

[qesehmk]

You are giving CO a lot of credit :)
LoL! You could be right.

[Jagan01]

Gurus,

With the EB2 dates remaining same in October, do we still see any percentage of applications < June 15 2008 (including porting) untouched or not picked by officers before October end ?

The only possibility is Internal Retrogression of dates. In case the visa numbers are over and CO doesn't want to add QSP then he can internally retrogress the dates and stop giving visas in the first week of Oct.

[vizcard]

The only possibility is Internal Retrogression of dates. In case the visa numbers are over and CO doesn't want to add QSP then he can internally retrogress the dates and stop giving visas in the first week of Oct.

I've always questioned the legality of "internal retrogression". Perhaps Kanmani (if she's around) or Pedro can comment on that.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Is there any reliable/guesstimated statistic on the average spillover EB-2 has received/has a probability of receiving for a FY? For the sake of discussion/clarity, assume the sample period to be from FY 2007 - 2013.

[vizcard]

Is there any reliable/guesstimated statistic on the average spillover EB-2 has received/has a probability of receiving for a FY? For the sake of discussion/clarity, assume the sample period to be from FY 2007 - 2013.

Spec has data from FY 2008 onwards in the Facts and Data section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards) of the forum

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

thanks,viz. So, based on the average spillover it looks like dates are likely to move/stop around may/june '09 for FY '14. Comments?

[Jagan01]

thanks,viz. So, based on the average spillover it looks like dates are likely to move/stop around may/june '09 for FY '14. Comments?

Tried going through the posts where we had a discussion of this in the past but could not fiind them. I think Spec had put out prediction and as far as I remember it was like
Apr/May 2009 - Optimistic
Mar 2009 - Realistic
Jan 2009 - If many people who are current are left behind. (Looking at current trends, not many will be left behind)

I might be wring but it would be best to find those posts.

[Jagan01]

Already 333 approvals for Sept 2013 in Trackitt. They are doing pretty good and clearing cases at a rapid rate. By the end of this week (2nd week of Sep) we might see 400 approvals.

Aug approvals --> 566
Aug new applicants --> 137
Sep approvals --> 333
Sep new applicants --> 42

Total approvals --> 899
Total new applications --> 179

It is good to see that lesser porting applications filed in September compared to Aug. Trend until now shows that for every 100 approvals there are 20 new applicants. Scaling this to the scenario where we are expecting around 18k approvals, we might see 3k pending porting demand when the next inventory is published. Let us assume that 1k are left behind, then it will be 4k pending before June 2008. Add to it the known inventory from June 2008 onwards and you can see approx 8k until Jan 2009.

Thus before Jan 2009 we would have 8k+4k = 12k pending.
Thus before Feb 2009 we would have 8k+5.3k = 13.3k pending.
Thus before Mar 2009 we would have 8k+6.6k = 14.6k pending.

I believe with lower FB spillover, it would be difficult to get more than 15k for EB2I. Hence, I would say FY14 would most likely be at Mar 2009.

[Pedro Gonzales]

The only possibility is Internal Retrogression of dates. In case the visa numbers are over and CO doesn't want to add QSP then he can internally retrogress the dates and stop giving visas in the first week of Oct.

I believe the only precedent for internal retrogression was in Mar '12 and that had to do with usage of nearly all EB2 visa numbers for the entire year. I don't think there is any justification for internal retrogression at the beginning of the year. The USCIS can issue 27% of all EB2 visa numbers in Q1 and it can give them all to EB2I if there is demand, and there is no month by month restriction, so technically, the USCIS shouldn't stop issuing visa numbers to EB2I until the dates retrogress at Oct end. I think everybody other than first time I485 applicants or people stuck with new RFEs will get approved in October. Many first time I485 applicants will get their green cards too but there can be no guarantee of that.

Basically CO has inadvertently authorized QSP without knowing how much it will be. I think he is betting that the demand not satisfied by FY2013 spill over will be < 3K and can be satisfied with the EB2I FY2014 supply. The USCIS can apply that without worrying about the quarterly limits. Of course there will be significant retrogression come Nov 1, 2013 to wherever EB3I is, so that no further porting will be possible until the spill over is known in summer 2014.

[Jagan01]

I believe the only precedent for internal retrogression was in Mar '12 and that had to do with usage of newarly all EB2 visa numbers for the entire year. I don't think there is any justification for internal retrogression at the begining of the year. The USCIS can issue 27% of all EB2 visa numbers in Q1 and it can give them all to EB2I if there is demand, and there is no month by month restriction, so technically, the USCIS sholdn't stop issuing visa numbers to EB2I until the dates retrogress at Oct end. I think everybody other than first time I485 applicants or people stuck with new RFEs will get approved in October. Many first time I485 applicants will get their green cards too but there can be no guarantee of that.

Basically CO has inadvertently authorized QSP without knowing how much it will be. I think he is betting that the demand not satisfied by FY2013 spill over will be < 3K and can be satisfied with the EB2I FY2014 supply. The USCIS can apply that without worrying about the quarterly limits. Of course there will be significant retrogression come Nov 1, 2013 to wherever EB3I is, so that no further porting will be possible until the spill over is known in summer 2014.

The

Thanks for the inputs Pedro.

How long do you think a case takes to preadj once it is filed for the first time with USCIS. I am trying to see how many first time I-485 filers who filed in Aug 2013 will have their cases preadj before the dates eventually retrogress in Nov / Dec.

[vizcard]

Thanks for the inputs Pedro.

How long do you think a case takes to preadj once it is filed for the first time with USCIS. I am trying to see how many first time I-485 filers who filed in Aug 2013 will have their cases preadj before the dates eventually retrogress in Nov / Dec.

It'll be 3-4 months. You will start to see those in the December demand data. I doubt any (or maybe very very few) will get approved befores dates retrogress.

[ashirolkar]

I am getting worried now. Even though my PD is March2008, my RD is in April 2012 and Texas is clearly approving based on RD in near chronological order. Only exception where it is approving cases with really late RDs (April, May 2012) is for cases with really old PDs. I am not so sure they will reach my RD before the visas run out this month. FYI, I got the mass RFE. Gurus - any thoughts? Mera number kab aayega?

Pedro's post above is giving me some hope though.

[Jagan01]

It'll be 3-4 months. You will start to see those in the December demand data. I doubt any (or maybe very very few) will get approved befores dates retrogress.

3 months from Aug 1 will end on Nov 1. The dates won't retrogress until Dec 2013. Thus there might be a small window of 10 days. If QSP is applied then I do not see why it might be very very few.

We have so far completely ignored the people applying for first time from the equation.

[rosharma]

I do believe few of the lucky first timers (Most probably the ones who filled I-485 in August) will get their GCs. I do not have any proof to back my argument but I know for sure in 2012 COD frenzy lot of first timers did get their 485 approved.

P.S. Do we have any first timer cases from Trackitt which have got their 485 approved yet?

[vizcard]

3 months from Aug 1 will end on Nov 1. The dates won't retrogress until Dec 2013. Thus there might be a small window of 10 days. If QSP is applied then I do not see why it might be very very few.

We have so far completely ignored the people applying for first time from the equation.

I'm not sure how you can definitively say dates won't retrogress until Dec. Maybe you know something that I don't.

Also, USCIS stated processing time for 485s is 4 months. Many first timers got their GC in 2011 because USCIS didn't have any backlog to work on. This time around they have tons of backlog to clear in August and Sept.

Finally I dont think anyone has ignored first timers from any equation. They were always accounted for in FY14 calculations. Porting will always continue but the difference is that those first timers will show up in demand data now rather than be invisible.

[sk911911]

Apologies for posting here. Like many immigrant hopefuls, I am a daily reader of this forum. I finally received my Card Production email today. My PD is 17MAR08.

I sincerely thank all the gurus, pandits and every one else contributing the analysis here - Spec, Q,Veni, Ted,...,Matt, Indiani. The analysis indeed helped me in my plans.

Spec, I still remember the day when you first in the world reported about the unused family based visa available to EB category. It indeed gave me hope.

Thank you

[qesehmk]

Congratulations SK. Best wishes for future. If you can - do keep visiting and helping others.
Apologies for posting here. Like many immigrant hopefuls, I am a daily reader of this forum. I finally received my Card Production email today. My PD is 17MAR08.

I sincerely thank all the gurus, pandits and every one else contributing the analysis here - Spec, Q,Veni, Ted,...,Matt, Indiani. The analysis indeed helped me in my plans.

Spec, I still remember the day when you first in the world reported about the unused family based visa available to EB category. It indeed gave me hope.

Thank you

[gc_soon]

Congrats SK. Enjoy the green.



Spec, I still remember the day when you first in the world reported about the unused family based visa available to EB category. It indeed gave me hope.

Thank you

Same with me. I was the first to clarify to Spec's statement on unused FB visas in DOS visa statistics where he mentioned there was a possibility of spillover and was eagerly waiting for his reply to confirm which he did. That was the last hope for me that I would be current in FY2013.

[aary09]

Guys,
Finally received my AOS email today.
My utmost and humblest thanks to all the gurus who helped me to understand and navigate through this process. Q You were one of them sticking to the guns when even data was not at your side.

With many thanks
Aary
PD 05/07/08
NO RFE's
erequest on 9/6 ( after reading one of the posts in q immi)
AOS email 09/13

[qesehmk]

Many congratulations ... aary09. Happy friday and a gr8 weekend ahead.
Guys,
Finally received my AOS email today.
My utmost and humblest thanks to all the gurus who helped me to understand and navigate through this process. Q You were one of them sticking to the guns when even data was not at your side.

With many thanks
Aary
PD 05/07/08
NO RFE's
erequest on 9/6 ( after reading one of the posts in q immi)
AOS email 09/13

[vizcard]

Just wondering if it's time already for the 2014 thread. I know there hasn't been much data lately but it will still be nice to let all people post their initial predictions based upon the information we have.

I believe Q mentioned that he would keep this thread on as 2014 and move all 2013 posts to a different new thread. Idea is so members' bookmarks wouldn't get messed up. Q thinking ahead as usual.

[qesehmk]

Dear All,

Header of the thread is now updated with my final post for year 2013 and a rough picture of 2014.

Regards
Q

[IJune05]

As always, thank you Q


Dear All,

Header of the thread is now updated with my final post for year 2013 and a rough picture of 2014.

Regards
Q

[amulchandra]

Dear All,

Header of the thread is now updated with my final post for year 2013 and a rough picture of 2014.

Regards
Q

Thank you very much for your detailed analysis.
If possible can you please throw some light on EB 3 India?

Thank you very much

Amul

[Gcsep09]

Hi,
I know its too ealey to pose the question.
When can i expect to be current with sep 09 eb2 pd.

Thanks

[Jagan01]

Hi,
I know its too ealey to pose the question.
When can i expect to be current with sep 09 eb2 pd.

Thanks

FY 2015 (July-Sep 2015)

[qesehmk]

Sorry Amul. Today we had a site hijack and I spent more than 8 hours trying to clean up stuff and upgrade and bolster security etc.

To answer your question - EB3I contrary to my earlier feeling - is probably on a sustainable path i.e. there may not be any retrogression (big deal right!! for people who already are retrogressed so severely).

My normal expectation for EB3I would be 3-5 months of movement. In reality we saw 9 months in 2013. That is probably 16-17K numbers (from original backlog) we are talking about. Of that 3.5K were actually approved. So the rest are either cancellations and portings. I would imagine, most are really cancellations - people who got fed up and just couldn't stretch their lives too much. This is a trend that is true not just with India but with all countries - except philipines. This explains why ROW has moved so fast. With the same trend I would expect another 7-8 months of movement for EB3I in 2014 and about 2 years of movement for ROW. But we can say this definitively after the 485 data is published sometime in Oct 2013.Hope this helps.


Thank you very much for your detailed analysis.
If possible can you please throw some light on EB 3 India?

Thank you very much

Amul

[amulchandra]

Sorry Amul. Today we had a site hijack and I spent more than 8 hours trying to clean up stuff and upgrade and bolster security etc.

To answer your question - EB3I contrary to my earlier feeling - is probably on a sustainable path i.e. there may not be any retrogression (big deal right!! for people who already are retrogressed so severely).

My normal expectation for EB3I would be 3-5 months of movement. In reality we saw 9 months in 2013. That is probably 16-17K numbers (from original backlog) we are talking about. Of that 3.5K were actually approved. So the rest are either cancellations and portings. I would imagine, most are really cancellations - people who got fed up and just couldn't stretch their lives too much. This is a trend that is true not just with India but with all countries - except philipines. This explains why ROW has moved so fast. With the same trend I would expect another 7-8 months of movement for EB3I in 2014 and about 2 years of movement for ROW. But we can say this definitively after the 485 data is published sometime in Oct 2013.Hope this helps.

Thank you very much for taking time to answer my question. It looks like it is still going to be a long wait for jul 2006 eb3 i to be current.

[titanian]

I don't agree on this. We don't have month by month data. Its a general assumption that 2009 has less data than any of its previous or successive year.

If the spill over is 18+, there are chances Sep2009 will be covered.

[vizcard]

I don't agree on this. We don't have month by month data. Its a general assumption that 2009 has less data than any of its previous or successive year.

If the spill over is 18+, there are chances Sep2009 will be covered.

It doesn't matter if we have month by month data. Looking at annual numbers gives you an idea of where dates will end up. For 2008, the spread was fairly even month to month.

From the June demand data, for 2008 there are approx 18K cases and 2009 has approx 17K. To reach Sept 30, 2009 you would need 9K (July to Dec 2008) + 12.5K (3/4 of 17K)+approx 5K(porting) + whatever is leftover from this go-around. Given current expectations on SOFAD for FY14, it seems highly unlikely that we will get to Sept 2009. As of now, I'd put the probability at less than 5%.

Obviously this is subject to change.

[MATT2012]

Spec,

Lately, I have not noticed any updates from you. Your latest footer " So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish" , makes me believe that you have either left the forum or a temporary pause before next fiscal year. Thank you for all the data crunching and consistent updates. From all your postings I learned a lot.

I am sure the next year batch look forward to see amazing posts from you.

I will look forward to see your postings.

Thanks again for all the data sharing, analysis and help. I am also sure many were blessed through your postings.

With great respect!!!

Matt

Update on June 12, 2013

There is a fairly strong indication that "the priority date cut-off for EB-2 India could advance as far as February 2008 in the August or September Visa Bulletin".

That can be interpreted to mean a Cut Off Date between 01FEB08 and 01MAR08 depending how you parse the statement.

Without any porting, progress to those dates would take between 9-10k.

With porting of anywhere between 4-7k, that would be 13-17k total approvals to EB2-I if every case was approved. In reality, some people will be "left behind", so the likely number of approvals will be towards the lower end of that range.

The bright spot might be if EB2-WW approvals continue to slow. That would allow slightly further movement. The "elephant in the room" is the level of EB1 approvals, which no-one has a good handle on.


Update on April 04, 2013

Only because people seem to want one. The information available isn't very clear.

EB2-I might receive anything between 8k and 17k approvals, depending on how EB1 and EB2-WW perform. A mid point would be about 13 - 15k approvals i.e. towards the upper end.

Assuming not all cases are approved, that might move the Cut Off dates to the end of February/March 2008, using that mid point. At the upper end, June 2008 might be possible.

If a significant number of porting cases are delayed (due to RFE or processing time when they become Current), then the Cut Off Dates could move a bit further than mentioned above.

More time is needed to see what EB1 and EB2-WW will do in the coming months. Assumed Porting numbers have to be a guess and may be wrong.


Update on March 10, 2013 to make things clearer

The FY2012 DOS Visa statistics provided some very nice surprises.

FB underused their allocation and may provide as many as 13.2k extra visas to EB2.

EB4 did not use their full allocation again and I now feel confident to allow some spillover from EB4.

EB1 had high usage in FY2012, but this may be a rebound effect from Kazarian in FY2011. Nonetheless, for prediction purposes I am going to use a lower figure for FY2013.

EB2-ROW and EB2-Philippines were on target to use or exceed their allocation, while EB2-Mexico would still have provided spare numbers had retrogression not been imposed.

Currently, I am using the following spillover numbers for FY2013 based on 158k being available to EB:

EB1 ------ 10.2
EB2-M --- }
EB2-P --- } 0.0
EB2-ROW - }
EB3 ------- 0.0
EB4 ------- 3.3
EB5 ------- 1.3
Total ---- 14.8 k spillover.

At that level EB2-China would receive 1k as 7% of Fall Down, giving 4.2k with the initial allocation of 3.2k.

EB2-India would have around 17k visas available including the 3.2k initial allocation.

That might be sufficient to clear all cases to about April 2008.

The above is probably a mid point. There are still big doubts about the performance of EB1 and EB2-ROW/P. For instance, if EB1 were use 40k again in FY2013, then dates might struggle to even be in early 2008.

Also, as mentioned above, it assumes that all cases will be cleared. We know that is never the case, so Cut Off Dates will probably move slightly further than that.

Movement into 2009 now seems impossible.

Where the dates move to is going to depend on the performance of EB1, EB2-ROW and just how many porting applications there are / are approved.


Posted January 01, 2013

Q1 is now history.

I am relatively less optimistic based on the Trackitt figures to date, although I would like to see the actual FY2012 numbers.

Any hope of spillover from EB5 must now be discounted.

EB4 was artificially low in FY2011 due the withdrawal of concurrent filing for Religious Workers cases part way through the year. Unless there is specific evidence to the contrary, EB4 can be expected to return to full usage. The FY2012 figures from DOS will confirm this theory (or not).

EB2-WW has used approaching 40% of their yearly allocation in 3 months. Barring extremely slow adjudication times, EB2-WW looks like it will use its entire allocation and there is some risk of EB2-WW also using spillover available from EB1.

Judging from CO comments on August 30, 2012:



EB1 usage in FY2012 approached 40k. Again, the official Visa Statistics will tell the truth of this.

The USCIS Inventory does not suggest backlog reduction, since the October 2011 and October 2012 EB1 figures are almost identical.

Relatively high EB1 usage in FY2013 must also be expected.

The signs are that there will be very little spillover available in FY2013. In fact, adjusted for various factors, the underlying spillover in FY2012 wasn't very high either, but a combination of the extra visas available from FB and the use by EB2-IC of EB2-WW visas only made it look so.

All this tends to point to EB2-I only having 6k or less total visas available to them in FY2013. The majority of these will be consumed by porting cases, leaving very few to clear existing cases.

An ending Cut Off Date in mid 2007 will be a good result, but that is not guaranteed. I do not think there is any chance of the Cut Off date reaching 2008. The actual number of porting cases approved will determine the final Cut Off Date.

Added January 04, 2013 to be consistent with other posts

Spillover -- Min ----- Max --- Avge.
EB1 ---------- 0 --- 5,000 --- 2,500
EB2-WW -- (5,000) ------ 0 -- (2,500)
EB4 ---------- 0 --- 2,000 --- 1,000
EB5 ---------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0
Total --- (5,000) -- 7,000 --- 1,000

Approvals Available to EB2-India

EB2-I ---- 2,803 --- 9,803 --- 6,303


Posted September 25, 2012

At this moment, a prediction for FY2013 is a fools errand because of so many unknowns.

With the scant information available, here goes anyway.

A mid-point scenario might see EB2-I receive 9.8k visas in FY2013 (7k extra).

That would move Cut Off Dates to the very beginning of 2008, if 4.5k porting was assumed.

Numbers are much less in the period Jan 1, 2008 to March 14, 2008 than the remainder of 2008 due the extra month they had for approval in FY2012. Only a further 2.5k are required to hit this mark. Since not all cases will be closed out, even 9.8k visas for EB2-I can move the Cut Off date into this territory. After that 1.1 - 1.3k per month are required in 2008.

Personally, I think EB1 will hit at least 35k in FY2013.

Big unknowns are whether EB2-WW either uses spillover, uses none, or give some fall across. Increased usage by Philippines is not a good indicator.

EB5 will give little to no spillover (maybe 2k at most).

EB4 is an unknown quantity. In FY2011, it gave significant spillover. It remains to be seen whether this was a once off event, or whether it will be repeated. A better idea will become apparent when the FY2012 DOS Statistics are published. Hopefully, we will see a return to them being published in January, rather than August.

I differ with some and think porting numbers may be higher than I have indicated above. If USCIS have followed their own AFM, then none of the cases submitted since dates became Unavailable will yet appear in the DOS Demand Data, since the final conversion (and thus visa request under EB2) cannot take place until the PD is Current.

The very best I think is possible (but less likely) with all favorable possibilities is mid 2008.

If some assumptions don't pan out, then the dates will end in 2007.

The (very, very unlikely) worst scenario really is too dire to contemplate.

China will move completely independently of India and end at some point in 2008.

The information available at the moment is poor. The prediction can be refined when that situation improves with time.

Don't take it too seriously at the moment.

[trackright]

Spec,

Lately, I have not noticed any updates from you. Your latest footer " So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish" , makes me believe that you have either left the forum or a temporary pause before next fiscal year. Thank you for all the data crunching and consistent updates. From all your postings I learned a lot.

I am sure the next year batch look forward to see amazing posts from you.

I will look forward to see your postings.

Thanks again for all the data sharing, analysis and help. I am also sure many were blessed through your postings.

With great respect!!!

Matt

Matt,

From Spec's post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2188-All-Sep-2013-485-APPROVALS-amp-DISCUSSION-report-here-with-details?p=39960#post39960) he is off on vacation.

[MATT2012]

if so I will be happy, Google it" So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish"


Matt,

From Spec's post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2188-All-Sep-2013-485-APPROVALS-amp-DISCUSSION-report-here-with-details?p=39960#post39960) he is off on vacation.

[qesehmk]

You know Matt... that is Spec. I like him more for these kind of quirks of his. BTW yesterday he posted in Mod forum .... and we had some exchange but of course I won't say anything beyond. Let Spec be the one talking about his intentions.


if so I will be happy, Google it" So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish"

[Jagan01]

I don't agree on this. We don't have month by month data. Its a general assumption that 2009 has less data than any of its previous or successive year.

If the spill over is 18+, there are chances Sep2009 will be covered.

The numbers hardly support the dates movement until Mar 2009. I do not see where you get the idea that 18+ (Lets say 19k) can cover Sep 2009. 8k will be pending from Jun 08 to Dec 08. Another 12k from Jan 09 to Sep 09. Another 3k of first time applicants before June 2008 that will not get GC in this FY. To sum it up, there will be 8+12+3=23k applicants before Sep 2009. That is at a minimum.You need at least 24k supply to clear that out. That is no way possible.

Movement should be around Mar 2009 according to current trends.

[suninphx]

Another 3k of first time applicants before June 2008 that will not get GC in this FY.

Based on what data? Do we have calculated this anywhere on this forum recently? or this is based on trackitt data?

[Jagan01]

Based on what data? Do we have calculated this anywhere on this forum recently? or this is based on trackitt data?

Recently, we have had estimates of 7% conversion rate for trackitt data. Both Spec and Indiani suggested that around 8k got approved in Aug and I can see 570 approvals in Aug.

On trackitt we have seen 217 applications that applied between Aug - Sep and are still pending cases. So the 217 on trackitt would correspond to 3100 (3k) porting applicants that would reflect in the new inventory and demand data.

[Jagan01]

What are their priority dates? It could be the pent up porting demand. From the thread maintained by "idiotic" here on September folks and another trackigg thread for March 2008 filers, I see a very large percentage of people are approved (and even idiotic has missed to update a couple of approved folks by simple visual inspection). Also, we still have a few days to go in September...let's see how many approvals we will see. My point is late 2007 and 2008 PDs have fared very well and it's only been slightly over half a month.

I am missing your point? How does the priority date matter when we are trying to figure out porting applications (first time I-485 filers). These will be ready for approval 3 months after the filing of the application. They will all become preadj by Nov 2013 and will start reflecting in the demand/inventory. So we should see like 3k applications prior to June 2008 that would be waiting for approval in FY 2014.

[qesehmk]

titanian - the 485 inventory is the month by month data. Or perhaps you mean month by month approvals? That I would agree with of course.

If as you say the spillover is 18+ next year then EB2I will have all of that plus 3K quota. Bet Jun 2008 and Sep 2009, there are more cases than that. Plus the next wave of portings will hit the EB2I queue. So Sep will be impossible with 18K spillover - however May is a certainty with 18K spillover.

The question is - why would spillover be 18K? Will it be 18K. In the header I have explained my reasoning why it may not be 18K next year.



I don't agree on this. We don't have month by month data. Its a general assumption that 2009 has less data than any of its previous or successive year.

If the spill over is 18+, there are chances Sep2009 will be covered.

[seattlet]

Guys,
My 485, 131, 765 got rejected today (filed on 9/4). It seems they had mistakenly classified it as a family petition instead of employment petition even though my attorney had attached approved I 140 (as per their remarks)

They are quoting USCIS error and are attaching a cover letter with the I 140 copy and filing again tomorrow.

If it was USCIS error, do they giveme the old receipt date ? Im not sure being 15 days ahead in queue matters that much but it was a nice to have ..

Any thoughts ?

[titanian]

I should look at the inventory data and do analysis. I was under the assumption that Jan - Dec 2009 has less number of cases than any other year.

Anyways updated demand data and inventory data will give more picture.



titanian - the 485 inventory is the month by month data. Or perhaps you mean month by month approvals? That I would agree with of course.

If as you say the spillover is 18+ next year then EB2I will have all of that plus 3K quota. Bet Jun 2008 and Sep 2009, there are more cases than that. Plus the next wave of portings will hit the EB2I queue. So Sep will be impossible with 18K spillover - however May is a certainty with 18K spillover.

The question is - why would spillover be 18K? Will it be 18K. In the header I have explained my reasoning why it may not be 18K next year.

[titanian]

Update demand and inventory can answer many questions. I was under the wrong assumption that June - Dec 2008 has less little cases like 6500+.

If porting consumes 4000-5000, then I thought we will have 7000 left over. This is for 18K spillover.

Also do you think CO will apply Quarterly spill over. In previous years, any pattern of application other than 2012 ?


titanian - the 485 inventory is the month by month data. Or perhaps you mean month by month approvals? That I would agree with of course.

If as you say the spillover is 18+ next year then EB2I will have all of that plus 3K quota. Bet Jun 2008 and Sep 2009, there are more cases than that. Plus the next wave of portings will hit the EB2I queue. So Sep will be impossible with 18K spillover - however May is a certainty with 18K spillover.

The question is - why would spillover be 18K? Will it be 18K. In the header I have explained my reasoning why it may not be 18K next year.

[RogerFederer]

Guys,
My 485, 131, 765 got rejected today (filed on 9/4). It seems they had mistakenly classified it as a family petition instead of employment petition even though my attorney had attached approved I 140 (as per their remarks)

They are quoting USCIS error and are attaching a cover letter with the I 140 copy and filing again tomorrow.

If it was USCIS error, do they giveme the old receipt date ? Im not sure being 15 days ahead in queue matters that much but it was a nice to have ..

Any thoughts ?

If itsa mistake that would be fine..there is no advantage with receipt date..on the other hand you must send it fast before dates go back..
Usually there will be reasons such as incorrect fee. Wrong apparently wrong pictures missing docs cause rejections..

Any ways sorry to know that this happened..this time make sure u dbl Chi ur finalcopy with some one else as well..

Rd doesn't matter..once you r in queue all that matters is ur luck

[RogerFederer]

Eb2I next year my guess is dec08 worstcase.. may09 bestcase

[garihc27]

gurus,

Is there a way to track status of EAD, AOS, Advance Parole? Thanks!

[venkat]

i love that Sports especially me being someone who missed the boat by 10 days (my PD is June 24, 2008). Though the chances are very slim but it would be wonderful if QSP comes to fruition.



On an unrelated topic, suppose the PERM slowdown and processing times keep worsening in the short term, it is not unlikely that we will see QSP and EB2-I dates would jump in the first 2 quarters themselves instead of the last one. CO would like to spread out visa approvals evenly across all quarters and if the other categories are falling far short of approvals, EB2-I can make up the difference. Let's see if this comes to fruition.

[Gcsep09]

I think its still a possibility based on the spill over.
1. From Jun 15 08 to Oct 1st 09- apprx: 18K case
2. Eb3-Eb2 who have filed 485 this time but will in 2014 quota: 4k apprx
3. Miscellaneous: 2k appr
Total cases Needed to cover sep 09 PD: 22k.
Estimate on available visas:
Reg quota: 3k
EB spill Over: 14 k ---what are the chances of getting this spillover from EB
FB: There is lot of discussion going on saying it will be less.
4K spill over--what are the possiblities
Total:
3k+14k(subject to change) + 4k (subject to change): 21K

what is the probability of 14K EB and 4K FB spillover for next year?

[vizcard]

gurus,

Is there a way to track status of EAD, AOS, Advance Parole? Thanks!

i assume u mean your own cases. Theres an online USCIS status check website. Google it. It asks for your receipt numbers. You alos have the option to set up text and email alerts when status changes.

[vizcard]

I think its still a possibility based on the spill over.
1. From Jun 15 08 to Oct 1st 09- apprx: 18K case
2. Eb3-Eb2 who have filed 485 this time but will in 2014 quota: 4k apprx
3. Miscellaneous: 2k appr
Total cases Needed to cover sep 09 PD: 22k.
Estimate on available visas:
Reg quota: 3k
EB spill Over: 14 k ---what are the chances of getting this spillover from EB
FB: There is lot of discussion going on saying it will be less.
4K spill over--what are the possiblities
Total:
3k+14k(subject to change) + 4k (subject to change): 21K

what is the probability of 14K EB and 4K FB spillover for next year?

I really dont see EB giving 14K visas. With normal consumption EB2ROW will give us 6-8K but basically nothing else from other categories. Even EB2ROW might not give 8K. I can't see a scenario where we get more than 10K EB spillover

[Gcsep09]

What about Eb1, Eb4, Eb5 categories any spillovers from those
and worst case scenario for FB spillover other than 0.

[suninphx]

I really dont see EB giving 14K visas. With normal consumption EB2ROW will give us 6-8K but basically nothing else from other categories. Even EB2ROW might not give 8K. I can't see a scenario where we get more than 10K EB spillover

Why would EB1 not give anything?

[Maksimus]

Based on a Trackitt user's SR response from USCIS, looks like the visas for 2013 are done. For the unlucky ones who did not receive it this time (like yours truly) the wait continues for up to another year! :mad:

If they knew they didn't have enough demand to cover all applications until June 15, 2008, I wonder why CO kept the dates unchanged for October 2013? :confused:


U.S. Department of Homeland Security
P. O. BOX 851488 - DEPT. A
TEXAS SERVICE CENTER
MESQUITE,TX 75185

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Emailed to ###################

Dear ************:

On 09/04/2013 you, or the designated representative shown below, contacted us about your case. Some of the key information given to us at that time was the following:

Caller indicated they are:
-- Applicant or Petitioner

Attorney Name:
-- Information not available

Case type:
-- I485

Filing date:
-- 01/10/2012

Receipt #:
-- SRC-**********************

Referral ID:
****************
Beneficiary (if you filed for someone else):
-- Information not available

Your USCIS Account Number (A-number):
-- ***********

Type of service requested:
-- Outside Normal Processing Times


The status of this service request is:

The Department of State has informed U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) that all employment-based immigrant visas have been distributed for fiscal year 2013. Every fiscal year (October 1st � September 30th), at least 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas are made available to qualified applicants who seek to immigrate based on an offer of employment to the principal applicant. Please visit www.uscis.gov for more information about employment-based immigration. To view the Department of State�s Visa Bulletin, please visit www.state.gov.

XM1058
-------------------------------
Online Services
We offer many online services and tools to help you find the information you need. Please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov for information about:
* Using our Case Status Online tool;
* Signing up for case status updates;
* Checking processing times;
* Submitting an e-Request to inquire about certain applications and petitions;
* Using our Office Locator;
* Using InfoPass to schedule an appointment; and
* Downloading forms.

Address Changes
If you move, please provide us with an updated address. For more information about address changes, please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov/ar-11, and click on "Change Your Address Online."

For More Information
If you do not find the information you need through our online services and need further assistance, you may contact our National Customer Service Center at 1-800-375-5283 or 1-800-767-1833 (TDD for the hearing impaired).

[garihc27]

i assume u mean your own cases. Theres an online USCIS status check website. Google it. It asks for your receipt numbers. You alos have the option to set up text and email alerts when status changes.

Vizcard, Thanks! Yes I meant my own case. Will there be separate receipt numbers for EAD, AOD and Advance Parole. Sorry newbie to this process.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Based on a Trackitt user's SR response from USCIS, looks like the visas for 2013 are done. For the unlucky ones who did not receive it this time (like yours truly) the wait continues for up to another year! :mad:

If they knew they didn't have enough demand to cover all applications until June 15, 2008, I wonder why CO kept the dates unchanged for October 2013? :confused:


Fret not my friend. Even if they ran out for the year, you will still be current in October which is fiscal year 2014. I'll refer you to my prior post here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=40342#post40342), where I discuss this.

It doesn't matter that visa numbers ran out for the year, since the dates did not retrogress in the October bulletin. The USCIS will have 27% of 40,000 visa numbers available to EB2 in October to issue whatever visa numbers are required by EB2I. Any application picked up will have the visa numbers available to allocate, so do everything you can on Oct 1st (call L2, get an SR issued, set up an infopass appointment, use your senator and/or congressman) to get them to look at your application.

Either CO believes that the number of original applicants (not first time I485 filers) is less than 2,850 so he can provide those visa numbers from EB2Is regular quota and then retrogress it to where EB3I is, or he is not shy about using up other EB2 visa numbers (essentially QSP). The latter possibility dovetails well with Sports' point a few posts back where he speculates that the PERM slowdown may have decreased EB2ROW processing significantly enough that CO is willing to engage in QSP.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Thanks for the inputs Pedro.

How long do you think a case takes to preadj once it is filed for the first time with USCIS. I am trying to see how many first time I-485 filers who filed in Aug 2013 will have their cases preadj before the dates eventually retrogress in Nov / Dec.

I think they'll stick to the 4 month processing time and perhaps even longer given how busy they'll have been in August and September. So, come Nov 1, I think fewer than 5% of first time filers will have been processed.

A quick check on the trackitt tracker should give you an idea. compare the total number of I485 applied (RD or ND) in August 2013, and compare that to approvals in August or September 2013. I doubt there'll be more than a handful approved so far, although that number may go up in October.

[pseudonym]

Based on a Trackitt user's SR response from USCIS, looks like the visas for 2013 are done. For the unlucky ones who did not receive it this time (like yours truly) the wait continues for up to another year! :mad:

If they knew they didn't have enough demand to cover all applications until June 15, 2008, I wonder why CO kept the dates unchanged for October 2013? :confused:


U.S. Department of Homeland Security
P. O. BOX 851488 - DEPT. A
TEXAS SERVICE CENTER
MESQUITE,TX 75185

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Emailed to ###################

Dear ************:

On 09/04/2013 you, or the designated representative shown below, contacted us about your case. Some of the key information given to us at that time was the following:

Caller indicated they are:
-- Applicant or Petitioner

Attorney Name:
-- Information not available

Case type:
-- I485

Filing date:
-- 01/10/2012

Receipt #:
-- SRC-**********************

Referral ID:
****************
Beneficiary (if you filed for someone else):
-- Information not available

Your USCIS Account Number (A-number):
-- ***********

Type of service requested:
-- Outside Normal Processing Times


The status of this service request is:

The Department of State has informed U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) that all employment-based immigrant visas have been distributed for fiscal year 2013. Every fiscal year (October 1st � September 30th), at least 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas are made available to qualified applicants who seek to immigrate based on an offer of employment to the principal applicant. Please visit www.uscis.gov for more information about employment-based immigration. To view the Department of State�s Visa Bulletin, please visit www.state.gov.

XM1058
-------------------------------
Online Services
We offer many online services and tools to help you find the information you need. Please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov for information about:
* Using our Case Status Online tool;
* Signing up for case status updates;
* Checking processing times;
* Submitting an e-Request to inquire about certain applications and petitions;
* Using our Office Locator;
* Using InfoPass to schedule an appointment; and
* Downloading forms.

Address Changes
If you move, please provide us with an updated address. For more information about address changes, please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov/ar-11, and click on "Change Your Address Online."

For More Information
If you do not find the information you need through our online services and need further assistance, you may contact our National Customer Service Center at 1-800-375-5283 or 1-800-767-1833 (TDD for the hearing impaired).

That is frustrating!! I really hope that is not the case. I just received a response today to the SR that I had opened as well, but fortunately it did not have same message. I do not know whether they really need to do additional checks or if it is just a delay tactic, but below is the message I received:

-----------------------------------
U.S. Department of Homeland Security
P. O. BOX 851488 - DEPT. A
TEXAS SERVICE CENTER
MESQUITE,TX 75185

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Emailed to xxxxx@GMAIL.COM

Dear xxxx xxxx:

On 09/05/2013 you, or the designated representative shown below, contacted us about your case. Some of the key information given to us at that time was the following:

Caller indicated they are:
-- Applicant or Petitioner

Attorney Name:
-- Information not available

Case type:
-- I485

Filing date:
-- 02/15/2012

Receipt #:
-- SRC-12-901-xxxxx

Referral ID:
xxxxxxxx
Beneficiary (if you filed for someone else):
-- Information not available

Your USCIS Account Number (A-number):
-- xxxxx

Type of service requested:
-- Outside Normal Processing Times


The status of this service request is:

We have received your service request and researched the status of your case. We had to perform an additional review and this has caused a delay in processing time. Your case is currently under review. You should receive a decision or notice of further action within 90 days.

XM1317

If you have any further questions, please call the National Customer Service Center 1-800-375-5283.

If you move, please provide us with an updated address. For more information about address changes, please visit our Web site at www.uscis.gov/ar-11, and click on "Change Your Address Online."
-------------------------------

[engineer]

Gurus, pls help me understand the following....
I got the response that my file is now with an adjudicating officer. But the concern is when I called last week L2 officer said my case is already pre-adj in June and my case is in background review again. Today I got the response that file is now with an adjudicating officer.
Is adjudicating officer and immigration officer who approves and assign visa number are the same or different.
I m confused and worried by reading the post about visa is over for 2013.
Pd = march 2008, eb2 - I
Thanks for u r time.

[vizcard]

Vizcard, Thanks! Yes I meant my own case. Will there be separate receipt numbers for EAD, AOD and Advance Parole. Sorry newbie to this process.

Yes. U get separate receipt numbers for each form and for each applicant. So ur 485 and that for a dependent would have 2 diff receipt numbers.

[pseudonym]

Only 3 approvals on the Trackitt tracker today compared to 20+ approvals per day over the last couple of weeks. Could the visa numbers really be over? :mad:

I had opened a case with the USCIS ombudsman last weekend, not just to get an update on my case status but to outline how the USCIS has been approving cases apparently in random order without any apparent queuing system based on PD or RD. Not sure it will help any, especially if numbers are over by now. It's just extremely frustrating to have seen so many May and June approvals while folks with relatively earlier PDs are still sitting waiting for approval. Absolutely frustrating.

[indiani]

Only 3 approvals on the Trackitt tracker today compared to 20+ approvals per day over the last couple of weeks. Could the visa numbers really be over? :mad:

I had opened a case with the USCIS ombudsman last weekend, not just to get an update on my case status but to outline how the USCIS has been approving cases apparently in random order without any apparent queuing system based on PD or RD. Not sure it will help any, especially if numbers are over by now. It's just extremely frustrating to have seen so many May and June approvals while folks with relatively earlier PDs are still sitting waiting for approval. Absolutely frustrating.

The visas might have been exhausted for this fiscal year. Good news is COD is still june 2008 for oct

[RogerFederer]

Couple of more days will give some info.. still there r chances for current pds to get a number..

I know when I say be patient, how easy to say..and how difficult it is for the one who actually feels the pain..

All I can say keep up hope.. hope for the better..

[Maksimus]

Fret not my friend. Even if they ran out for the year, you will still be current in October which is fiscal year 2014. I'll refer you to my prior post here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=40342#post40342), where I discuss this.

It doesn't matter that visa numbers ran out for the year, since the dates did not retrogress in the October bulletin. The USCIS will have 27% of 40,000 visa numbers available to EB2 in October to issue whatever visa numbers are required by EB2I. Any application picked up will have the visa numbers available to allocate, so do everything you can on Oct 1st (call L2, get an SR issued, set up an infopass appointment, use your senator and/or congressman) to get them to look at your application.

Either CO believes that the number of original applicants (not first time I485 filers) is less than 2,850 so he can provide those visa numbers from EB2Is regular quota and then retrogress it to where EB3I is, or he is not shy about using up other EB2 visa numbers (essentially QSP). The latter possibility dovetails well with Sports' point a few posts back where he speculates that the PERM slowdown may have decreased EB2ROW processing significantly enough that CO is willing to engage in QSP.

Thanks Pedro, for your words of encouragement! It gives me hope. Also another Trackitt user just spoke to an L2 officer who informed him/her that all visas have been assigned to cases until Sept 30 and those who didn't get a visa assigned will get another chance come Oct 1 when the numbers reset. So I'm hoping I either got a number assigned or will stand a chance in Oct. Question is, at what stage did they distribute the numbers to pending cases and how do we find out if my case was assigned one?

[Jagan01]

I think its still a possibility based on the spill over.
1. From Jun 15 08 to Oct 1st 09- apprx: 18K case
2. Eb3-Eb2 who have filed 485 this time but will in 2014 quota: 4k apprx
3. Miscellaneous: 2k appr
Total cases Needed to cover sep 09 PD: 22k.
Estimate on available visas:
Reg quota: 3k
EB spill Over: 14 k ---what are the chances of getting this spillover from EB
FB: There is lot of discussion going on saying it will be less.
4K spill over--what are the possiblities
Total:
3k+14k(subject to change) + 4k (subject to change): 21K

what is the probability of 14K EB and 4K FB spillover for next year?

I would say that assuming 14k EB spillover is just day dreaming. In my previous post I had clearly explained the demand.
Demand:
June - Dec 08 --> 8k
Jan - Sep 09 --> 12k
Visas not approved before June 08 --> 3k (This is coming from trackitt data)
Total Minimum Demand --> 8+12+3 --> 23k

This figure of 23k assumes that porting stops today. That is not going to happen. Oct dates are at Jun 08, thus porting will continue at least until end of Oct. If the dates stay the same in Nov then more porting.

Even with all the high numbers of 14k EB spillover and 4k FB spillover, you only have 21k supply. that is just good enough to go till June 2009. Hence, the best case is June 2009. Again, that is not realistic but only best case.

I think we should be very lucky to go beyond Mar 2009.

[gc2008]

Hi All,
Sorry for posting in this section. I request admins to move to the relevant section once somebody answers my question. This is regarding my Mother in-law's B2 visa. She applied her visa last year(2012) in June and was approved for only one year. I sponsored that visa. Now she is going for visa renewal. I think she is eligible to apply through drop box. My question is does she need to submit all supporting documents like her financial documents, my I 134, my proof of immigration status along with her DS 160, photos and visa fee.
Please let me know if some body had applied through drop box for B2 visa lately.

Happy Friday!!!

Thanks

Best Regards

[infoseek]

Friends,
Just an FYI. Apologies if this has already been posted. ESP ..since many of us are eager for news on our status .. please beware. Posting it here ... as it seems to be most visited.

"August 20, 2013
In an email to stakeholders dated 8/20/13, USCIS announced that a new telephone scam is targeting current USCIS applicants and petitioners. The scammers ask for social security numbers, passport numbers, or A-numbers, and claim there is information that needs correcting for a fee.


The USCIS never asks for payment over the phone, and if you receive a call like this, do not give any information. If you are already a victim of this scam, please report it to the Federal Trade Commission at https://www.ftccomplaintassistant.gov/, or report it to an appropriate state authority. (Visit www.uscis.gov/avoidscams for information on where to report scams in your state.)"

Source:http://www.wsmimmigration.com/immigration-law-updates/

[vizcard]

Thanks for sharing. There are tons out there who prey on the anxieties and vulnerabilities of others.

[mesan123]

Just an Update to people who are current. one of my friends status changed to card production on Friday and he got his physical green card in mail today( for him and his wife). he just called me to share the good news..

[JosephM]

Got EAD/AP card production email today. Thank God!!
PD 12/15/2007 RD 08/06/2013, TSC

[engineer]

Thanks mesan for sharing that. It means approvals are still happening..some hope there..for this week then...
the only thing ...is not every one is on Qs or trackitt and update delegently..

[helooo]

Hi Gurus,
When can we expect Demand Data or other visa no information?
Thanks!