EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[indiani]

Gurus,

I am in a unique situation. Long story short, my PD is 05/2008 so my case is current. However my PERM is still to be approved. After years of audits and appeals, recently BALCA ruled in my favor. I am waiting on DOL now to approve PERM. Do you know if there is a timeline on DOL approval of BALCA cases?
I am hoping that the approval comes in the next month, so I could concurrent file (I-140 & I-485) before the Sept 30th date.

Thanks!

Local congressman+ Good attorney is what you need, try as hard as you can , I think you still have window of oppurtunity

[seattlet]

indiani,

That is a possible strategy, if there are sufficient numbers available form other Categories. I agree it would probably have to be made Unavailable for a period, or heavily retrogressed if that were the case.

Do you really want to see EB2-I become Unavailable for a period in FY2014?

I think that is a very depressing thought.

I would suggest to CO to use trackitt PERM tracker for getting an idea about ROW PERM approvals and move EB2 (I) accordingly . If our folks can predict accurately
with those kind of information, he can as well use it. better than dealing with inter department rivalry from DOL.

[indiani]

indiani,

That is a possible strategy, if there are sufficient numbers available form other Categories. I agree it would probably have to be made Unavailable for a period, or heavily retrogressed if that were the case.

Do you really want to see EB2-I become Unavailable for a period in FY2014?

I think that is a very depressing thought.

I have always posted my opinion that I think dates will have to retrogress in oct in order for CO to follow the law and rules but as Q and others believe that dates might stay same in October ( which if happens will not surprise me) and you have already explained in detail the scenarios.

[indiani]

I would suggest to CO to use trackitt PERM tracker for getting an idea about ROW PERM approvals and move EB2 (I) accordingly . If our folks can predict accurately
with those kind of information, he can as well use it. better than dealing with inter department rivalry from DOL.

LOL... CO have lot better data available than trackitt .
If CO would have been very logical and careful we wouldn't end up in these chaotic situations over and over again

[rferni]

From everything I have gathered and learned so far, the nuances of supply/demand analysis that goes into accurately predicting cutoff dates is no trivial task. Yet, the gurus here mastered this analysis - and I am truly astounded with the level of detail and accuracy on this forum.

Q, Spec, Indiani, Teddy, Matt and everyone else that contributes on a regular basis - thank you and hats off to you. I am one of the lucky few that became current in September 2013 and I relied heavily on your analysis during the build up to the bulletins - learned a lot in the process.

Good luck to all of you in your future endeavors (hopefully, your GC is simply a stepping stone to greater and more fulfilling success) and may many others benefit from your wonderful work. As for me, I'll stick around for a few months/years - however long it takes to finally see some Green!

[suninphx]

As far as my guess ( I don't have calculations, 100% guess) 1 June 2008 to India might catch up with China.


@Kanmani - Lets see if we get some MS Dhoni moments for Sept bulletin

@Kanmani - you were pretty close. Hope you are enjoying your India trip.

[qesehmk]

Thanks I will contact my local Congressman and Senator. In addition does anyone have any recommendations on going through the case status appeal at DOL, http://www.dol.gov/appeals/case_status.htm
or taking an extreme step such as filing federal writ of mandamus lawsuit for delay against the DOL.

I am considering all possible options since I don't want to miss this window of opportunity again.

Thanks!
garihc - i am sorry i really dont know much about this. But I wish you well and really hope your case gets going and resolves positively.


I have always posted my opinion that I think dates will have to retrogress in oct in order for CO to follow the law and rules but as Q and others believe that dates might stay same in October ( which if happens will not surprise me) and you have already explained in detail the scenarios.
indiani - I actually have same thoughts as Spec. The only reason I am very very confident October won't see any retrogression whatsoever is because retrogression is based on demand supply imbalance. CO needs at least one month data for FY 2014 to make a decision on retrogression.
If the unadjudicated backlog of EB2I is more than 3K - then we sure will see retrogression. In fact think this way - the retrogression will happen to a point where EB2I backlog is 3K. Now that depends on how the backlog is cleared between now and Sep 30!! So at this time it is very difficult to estimate anything. But I guess I am reasonably confident that Oct shoudlnt see any retro movement.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Jagan, I promised a more detailed response but I'd not anticipated how busy you've been today, so it's taken me a while.

I've responded to each of your posts below, but I'm going to explain how I think of the process. I expect you already know this but i'm spelling it out to avoid confusion.

a) Whenever dates move, EB3 to EB2 porting is composed of pent up demand component (your type 1 porters who have moved jobs, have interfiled, are preadjudicated and are ready for a visa number, or your type 2 porters who have filed the new PERM, new I140 and are ready with their EB2 I485), and if the dates stay steady, there is an organic demand component generated each month (people with EB3 PDs before the EB2 current date that have completed an interfile application or have a new I140 approved).

b) The path forward for EB2 in the current environment is likely to be one where the dates move every Q4 and then retrogress the following Q1 and stay steady so that the organic demand generated is fulfilled by the 250 regular visa numbers available to EB2I each month pre spillover. Then in Q4 spillover comes in which will allow dates to move sufficiently forward to meet the existing EB2 demand and the pent up EB3 porting demand until that date. Your type 2 porters (who have never filed an I485 application) will take some time to receive their green cards, and will likely not get it because dates will retrogress before then. So they may not be incorporated in COs calculations when he moves the dates forward (Because he doesn't want to waste visa numbers since they won't be processed in time). However, they will be noted in the demand data as soon as their applications are preadjudicated so they will be known for the following year's spill over. This is what has happened in FY2013.


his predictions could be wrong but I would expect an error of around 2k. Now the additional demand from june to oct is another 5.5k and thus I would expect the total backlog to be around 7.5k

So to summarize, I think the next time inventory is released it might be around 7.5k before Oct 2008. But by the time CO can move the dates again (Aug 2014 viasa bulletin) that number would have gone up to 12k.

I think your assumption is that dates will retrogress significantly in Q12014 and then move in Aug 2014 to Oct 2008 by which time demand of 12K will materialize before Oct 1 2008. Since there is currently 4.5k of inventory between June 15 and Oct 1 2008 and since you are assuming 2K unfufilled demand pre Jun 15th (which excludes your type 2 porting for the reasons i mentioned above), you are assuming unfulfilled porting demand before retrogression and pent up new porting demand will be 5.5k in total. Also, I guess this 12K will only use spill over and not the regular 3K EB2I supply?


Well there are two categories of porters from EB3 to EB2:
1. Those who had EADs. 2. Those who never had EADs.

So far we have seen porting of cases of type(1) and that amounted to 300 porters a month when the date was 2004. If that date was 2008 then it would amount to 700 porters at least.
Also since the time the dates became unavailable (Jun 2012) the type (2) porting has been going on in the background. It is not subject bulletin dates and hence that continues. I am sure there are at least 10 k cases between Aug 2007 and June 2008 that would have been EB3 before the dates became unavailable in June 2012. These people have a lot of incentive and would have been converting to EB2 and I am thinking at least 5k of those might have already ported. That is where I come up with the figure of 5k to add to the already visible 7.5k that we have.

That is the explanation of 12~12.5k before Oct 2008.

The 700 per month that would have ported had the EB2I PD always been at June 2008 are mostly incorporated in CO's calculations when he moved the dates to June 15, 2008. Only the 5K that you think have already ported post Aug 2007 are not, and this ties to the 5.5K figure i calculated above. I think it is high, but it is internally consistent.



I have always failed to understand the movement that happened between June 2011 to Mar 2012. When CO could only give 300 visas and there were more than 8k pending before July 2007 then why did the dates move ahead from July 2007 to Nov 2007 in the Nov 2011 bulletin. This was followed until Mar 2012 and I fail to understand the basis. It has always been beyond me to comprehend this movement.

Two things happened, a) he tried out quarterly spillover which came to bite him on his backside as EB2Row ran out of visa numbers and had a cut off date imposed and b) he wanted to build an inventory because if he waited until the end of the year he would have had insufficient EB2I applications in the queue to use up all the spill over.

Pedro,
I respect your research that it might be easier for type (1) to port. But I do not agree with two facts.

The set is bigger now than ever in FY 2013. In FY 2013 it stayed at 2004 and therefore only people before 2004 could port. Now it is 2008 and hence everyone before 2008 can port. Thus the porting numbers just based on type (1) will increase.


You seem to be looking at I-485 inventory and demand data. Please understand that the type (2) porters do not show up anywhere in EB3. EB3ers have never gotten a chance to file I-485 in 2008. There is a hidden wave there which is going to turn everything upside down.
You believe porting is going to be a steady stream every month until all EB3I applicants either receive their GCs from EB3 supply or port to EB2. I disagree. I think most people who want to and can port before June 2008 will have already ported by Sep 2008 (or be preadjudicated and incorporated in the demand data). The incremental organic porters will be far fewer than 300 pre Sep 2004 . I dont have any calculations at the moment, but my gut says the EB2 dates will retrogress to somewhere in mid 2007.
And surely my knowledge of the process can't come across as being so rudimentary as you imply above.

Pedro,

I went through trackitt numbers for I-140 data. I can see that the following number of people have their I-140 approved post Apr 2012.
Sep 2004 - Aug 2007 : 97
Aug 2007 - Jun 2008 : 75
Total : 172

If we assume trackitt represents 6% of the set then 172 should map to 2866. So I thik we need to account for another 3k porters of type 2.
Type 1 porters will be the ones would at least be another 2k and that number will anyways be available in the next I-482 intventory. So I stick with the 12k demand before Oct 2008 (7.5 known + 3k type 2 porters + 2k type 1 porters).
1) Your type 1 porters will not be available in the inventory. When they interfile and if their dates are current they will receive their green cards immediately. The organic type 1 porters will be met through the monthly visa numbers available, and the pent up type 1 porters just use up visa numbers from the spill over and get their GCs.
2) 2K of type 1 porters in addition to the 3K regular EB2I supply (which will also be used by type 1 porters), would indicate 5K of porting just pre Aug 2007 which is around what we're assuming for FY2013. You have to be pretty pessimistic to think that's going to stay the same for the same period (pre Aug 2007). PErhaps your 2K is not in addition to the 3K regular EB2 availability?
3) Of the trackitt numbers you pulled, the first 97 will have an EB3 I485 so they'll get their green cards in August 2013. CO has a very good idea of their numbers because he waited 12 days to release the VB.
4) The other 75 (so about 1.2k after applying the 6% figure) are a part of the 2K that you expect not to get their GCs before the numbers retrogress.
5) You wanted to research trackitt to answer how many type 2 porters with PDs before OCt 2008 would generate pent up demand before Aug 2014. The position of people on this forum that have researched the subject is that there are fewer EB3Is with 2008PDs than with 2007PDs so then the total porting figure pre Oct 2008 would be significantly < 6K (which is the expectation for 2013). I don't think you have looked into that. I haven't either.

I also do not think the dates will retrogress in Oct.

Even if CO runs out of the visas in Oct, he still has to build up inventory so that he has enough amount of pre-adj cases wen the SOFAD is applied next year. Looking at the inventory pretty much everything before 2007 is going to be cleared. Lets consider he has 8k left in 2008 in the Oct 2013 I-485 inventory report. He might actually want to build up more inventory and take in more applications so that he has a good 15k in hand by the time SOFAD is applied next year.

Issuing a GC is very different. I am saying he might stop issuing GC until end of fiscal year 2014 but if he wants to build inventory he might still keep the dates moving ahead until Jan 2014 bulletin. Once he has the necessary inventory he might pull the plug. I think that would happen in Jan 2014 as the next inventory data after oct will be in jan.
If he held the dates constant and more applications are processed than he can give monthly 250 visa numbers to, he will have to retrogress the dates, or use quarterly spill over to meet the demand. He can't just do nothing.

Spec,
I should have used the words "CO might want to build up sufficient 2007/2008 inventory so that he can get to better numbers"
As Spec pointed out, CO has sufficient EB2I inventory. He will also have plenty of understanding of porting demand by then based on this summer's applications, so he can make a pretty good educated guess about how far to move dates in August 2014.

That's a long post but i wanted to address all of your points.

[kd2008]

Let us parse this important para from the visa bulletin:


D. VISA AVAILABILITY

FAMILY-sponsored:

F2A: This category was made “Current” in an effort to generate new demand for the upcoming fiscal year. Information received during discussions with the National Visa Center and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services indicates that this action is already having the intended result. Therefore, it is likely that a cut-off will be imposed for October. This cut-off is unlikely to have any negative impact on those who have already initiated action on their case prior to the announcement of the October cut-off dates.

The last sentence says that if you take action on your application then CO will assign a visa number irrespective of whether you documentarily qualify - just to use up the quota. So when the cut-off date is applied, your case will not be affected and it will still be smooth sailing for you. Essentially admitting that F2A quota will not be fully utilized.

This tells me that EB quota will receive additional visas from FB quota in next fiscal year. It may not be 18K like this year but it certainly will greater than zero.

Now lets look at the following sentence


Therefore, it is likely that a cut-off will be imposed for October.

This is in contradiction to what is discussed above. The cut-off date will come into picture only if the pending demand + new demand > 1/12 of the total quota. So this is either a hope or a wish or a statement made to err on the conservative side.

In conclusion, in all probability the FY 14 EB quota most likely will exceed 140K. This is good news for all concerned.

PS: I know all of us are eager to know what will happen with EB2-I come Oct 2013. But please be patient. Mostly like what Spec said will happen. The predictions on this forum are made on the consensus of the statements made by CO, inventory, trackitt data etc. First order of action is to parse the bulletin to eliminate scenarios based on CO's statements. Analysis like above needs to be made for EB3-ROW (wildcard, lower demand will swing things positively for EB3-I and hence EB2-I), then EB2-C (easiest category to predict, will end up near AUG 2009 by Sept 2014), then PERM trends (approvals may pick up after sequestration ends on Sept 30 2013 resulting in higher demand for EB2-ROW and porting) and then inventory (validation of all theories and visa consumption). Finally after all this we can form a consensus on the date movement for next fiscal year.

[vizcard]

Kd - you are missing the first sentence though. CO clearly says that he made it current to generate demand. To me that means it's not a sustainable forward movement.

They being said we may get some FB overflow but it will not move the needle significantly.

[kalatta]

Gurus,

I see that there is lot of discussions about EB2-I movement and predictions, but not a lot for EB-3I. I think the movement of 9 months in sep 2013 bulletin for EB3-I is significant. Because of this I think the EB3-I also needs a prediction for FY2014 form gurus. Please chime in your thoughts.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Spec. Perfect explanation.

[vizcard]

Vizcard,
My pd is in jan 2008. if dates retrogress would they go back to 2006/2007 or could they still linger in early jan :) - selfish and curious!!


viz,
I have rarely seen contradicting statements from
Viz and Q, where Q has hinted that dates may not retrogress till December and you are certain it will go back in Oct VB. what do you think how much date will be retrogressed in Oct?

Q and I have disagreed a few times. I think spec already pretty eloquently explained why dates would retrogress in oct. Sure there are things CO could do that won't retrogress in Oct such as "borrow" from other categories. But what you borrow has to be returned and that creates major issues.

I believe dates will retrogress to mid 2006. Ofcourse this depends on how far the backlog gets cleared up. Theoretically there should not be any demand pre-July 2007 after this FY but we know that's not realistic.

Specifically for Jagan - there is absolutely no need to build inventory. Keeping dates where they are means you actually have to approve cases not just take in new applications. The laws prevent CO from exceeding limits but don't say anything about USCIS workers not being busy because of lack of cases to work on. (I don't believe the USCIS workers are actually idle but I was trying to make a point).

Finally, my personal hope is that ppl who are current now and have previously filed actually get their GC. Not getting it after being current is probably worse than just missing the COD. I don't want to be a Debbie-downer in this time when ppl are happy they are current. But there is a very real possibility that some of those current won't get it this year particularly those closer to the COD. So I wouldn't make any major life altering decisions until you get that 2inch x 3inch (more or less) piece of plastic in your hand.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. Perfect explanation.Vkkpnm,

You're welcome.

I'm not so sure it as an explanation. Rather, it indicates some of the variables to be considered and what a difficult task it is for CO.

If EB had sufficient numbers, it would not be a problem.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Viz. really appreciate your opinion on this.

[helooo]

All Gurus,Q,Spec,Indiani,Viz
Discussion is good but its all theoretical and CO can surprise you any time.What is the best case scenario for EB2I in coming months?

[gcq]

Gurus,

I see that there is lot of discussions about EB2-I movement and predictions, but not a lot for EB-3I. I think the movement of 9 months in sep 2013 bulletin for EB3-I is significant. Because of this I think the EB3-I also needs a prediction for FY2014 form gurus. Please chime in your thoughts.
This rapid movement had to happen at some point since everyone considered Eb3-To-Eb2 porting was happening all the time. Probably USCIS/DOS has factored in these porting cases to EB3 inventory only now. Hope this trend continues for EB3 !

[vizcard]

This rapid movement had to happen at some point since everyone considered Eb3-To-Eb2 porting was happening all the time. Probably USCIS/DOS has factored in these porting cases to EB3 inventory only now. Hope this trend continues for EB3 !

Please don't expect a 9 month movement every time. I think this is one a time deal for atleast the next year. I expect EB3I to retrogress in Oct but then consistently move forward in small bits (may be a month or 2 months at a time) once a quarter.

As I mentioned previously, I expect EB2I to retrogress in Oct but again start movement possibly in April depending on how EB1 and EB2WW is trending from the first 6 months. I am cautiously optimistic that the movement for this Sept is truly because of lower "real" demand vs just a processing delay.

A comment on porting - nything EB3 that's post July 2007 i.e. those applying for the first time, will show up in EB2 demand. I believe there will be fewer surprises and the movement in FY14 will be more informed. I also believe that the amount of porting overall will be close to the same in real numbers although the window is probably smaller i.e in most cases only PDs up to oct 2008 will be eligible for EB2 to make it in to the FY14 quota.

[kalatta]

Please don't expect a 9 month movement every time. I think this is one a time deal for atleast the next year. I expect EB3I to retrogress in Oct but then consistently move forward in small bits (may be a month or 2 months at a time) once a quarter.

As I mentioned previously, I expect EB2I to retrogress in Oct but again start movement possibly in April depending on how EB1 and EB2WW is trending from the first 6 months. I am cautiously optimistic that the movement for this Sept is truly because of lower "real" demand vs just a processing delay.

A comment on porting - nything EB3 that's post July 2007 i.e. those applying for the first time, will show up in EB2 demand. I believe there will be fewer surprises and the movement in FY14 will be more informed. I also believe that the amount of porting overall will be close to the same in real numbers although the window is probably smaller i.e in most cases only PDs up to oct 2008 will be eligible for EB2 to make it in to the FY14 quota.

gcq and vizcard thanks for the comments. Seriously I don't expect the EB3-I to move 9 months every time and it is not practically possible with a finite set of visa numbers, spillover rule change and EB2 demand and retrogression, if it does it will be dream come true for lot of EB3-I people struggling for long time.

What I would like to understand is the current EB3-I date movement has already taken in to account of available FY 2014 visa numbers or this movement is only because of the spillovers from other categories and countries from FY 2013

[qesehmk]

This rapid movement had to happen at some point since everyone considered Eb3-To-Eb2 porting was happening all the time. Probably USCIS/DOS has factored in these porting cases to EB3 inventory only now. Hope this trend continues for EB3 !
gcq - EB2I will be crushed if this trend continues in EB3 (just an observation - not a criticism). 9 months movement = approx 14-18K applicants. 3K is usual quota. 3K is porting. So where did the rest go? So this movement itself is suspicious for me. I fear that EB3I will have to retro.

[tiger_of_web]

gcq - EB2I will be crushed if this trend continues in EB3 (just an observation - not a criticism). 9 months movement = approx 14-18K applicants. 3K is usual quota. 3K is porting. So where did the rest go? So this movement itself is suspicious for me. I fear that EB3I will have to retro.

My theory is that there wasn't enough demand in EB3 to consume the family spillover of 6k and to avoid wasting visa numbers EB3-I was advanced to utilize those numbers.

[qesehmk]

My theory is that there wasn't enough demand in EB3 to consume the family spillover of 6k and to avoid wasting visa numbers EB3-I was advanced to utilize those numbers.
tiger - it is easier to talk in terms of numbers here because then that easily tells you why something moved or didn't and whether it will move or not and in which direction!

[gcq]

gcq - EB2I will be crushed if this trend continues in EB3 (just an observation - not a criticism). 9 months movement = approx 14-18K applicants. 3K is usual quota. 3K is porting. So where did the rest go? So this movement itself is suspicious for me. I fear that EB3I will have to retro.
Porting has been going on forever. Gurus on this forum might have started estimating it only recently. Wouldn't people be porting since decades ? It is not a new phenomenon. multiply 3K times 7 years, it easily crosses 18K. The problem is USCIS was considered all these as pending inventory though these were absent all these years. IMO it may not go back. Again I am not a guru in prediction, just a guess.

[gcq]

Please don't expect a 9 month movement every time. I think this is one a time deal for atleast the next year. I expect EB3I to retrogress in Oct but then consistently move forward in small bits (may be a month or 2 months at a time) once a quarter.


I agree, this may be a one time event. However I expect it to stay at the current date and proceed slowly as before, not retrogress. We may get tiny surprises a few months down the lane or it may not happen at all.

[vizcard]

Porting has been going on forever. Gurus on this forum might have started estimating it only recently. Wouldn't people be porting since decades ? It is not a new phenomenon. multiply 3K times 7 years, it easily crosses 18K. The problem is USCIS was considered all these as pending inventory though these were absent all these years. IMO it may not go back. Again I am not a guru in prediction, just a guess.

porting has been going on for a while. its the natural course of business (what Spec likes to call the conveyor belt). the difference is that in 2012, EB2 leaped forward thus bringing in a larger than usual number of porting cases and this became more significant as non-FB SOFAD was limited (again primarily because of EB2WW retrogression in 2012). the proportion of porting approvals this year will be much higher than in other years. I don't have the actual numbers but thats what my gut feel tells me.

[gcq]

I disagree. Back in 2005/06, no one had heard of porting. I didn't even know about it as late as 2007 (granted my knowledge was poor, but I would have acted immediately had I known).

The law was always there, but a systematic mass phenomenon that has developed in the last 4 years was absent. There are lawyers like Ron Gotcher who specialize in porting cases only these days.

Also, before 2004, all dates were current and the main delay was in the labor processing backlog centers. Porting to a higher category would have possibly *increased* that delay, so there was simply no motivation to port.

Also my 2 cents on porting. I agree to the hypothesis presented by Pedro and think we have seen the worst. This kind of mass porting was possible simply because people had EADs. As simple as that. Had 2007 never occurred, EB2-I could possibly be current today and EB3-I would be much further along. I have experienced myself what a lifeline the EAD provides. Even a part time income from my spouse makes a huge difference and gives me an ability to buy a house and stay in this country. It would be the same for anyone who was fortunate to get an EAD. These people could stay and they had enough time on their hands to port.

It would be difficult to do for people post 2007. Not saying they won't do it (I know someone from late 2007 who did it and actually got his GC in 2012 itself!!), but numbers simply would not compare. Your ability to move around on the H1B is very limited and a typical blood sucking desi employer would much rather exploit you than give you a fast track to the GC and a reason to leave him. That's just not going to happen. I believe the worst case porting scenario is done now especially that EB3-I date itself is near the end of 2003 now. We will see some porting from folks in 2005/6/7 for a while, but it will continue to reduce going forward.
Agreed porting was not needed in older days when everyone was stuck up in labor stage, me being one of them. Dates were current because of labor backlog not because of people not needing visa numbers. July fiasco changed all that with backlog elimination centers for labor. Now the bottle neck moved to I-485 stage. Also EB3-I was stuck at April-2001 for years. At least since 2007, porting would have been happening. 6 years have passed since 2007 and gurus have estimated around 3000 porting per year. That explains 18K inventory that should have been reduced from EB3 side.

To move to EB2 lane, EAD is not needed. After 140 is approved, one one could start a new EB2 applications with older EB3 PD preserved. EAD gives lot of freedom, but not a per-requisite for porting.

Porting might have gained steam recently, but also consider the fact the fewer and fewer people are applying in EB3 nowadays.

[tiger_of_web]

tiger - it is easier to talk in terms of numbers here because then that easily tells you why something moved or didn't and whether it will move or not and in which direction!

OK. I believe we are trying to reason how Eb3-I moved by 9 months. Here's what I think:

I believe that EB3-I was very close to utilizing its yearly quota by June/July and i base this on the fact that the movement was stopped in Aug bulletin.

Now, Based on 485 inventory published by USCIS, demand till 22Sep03 should be roughly 6500. Porting deduction by 40% will leave the demand to ~4000. Where will this 4000 come from? I believe there wasnt enough materialized demand in EB3 to utilize the 6k spillover (as the EB3 dates moved significantly only around april/may). Some might be utilized by china and very little by ROW, but the majority will go to India and EB3-I wont retrogress from this date.

[qesehmk]

gcq - we have been estimating porting since 2010 when we started this blog. Indeed people have been porting for quite some time now. So I looked at the data.
Here is the situation:
Oct 2012 EB3I prior to Sep 2003 - 10.5K
Jul 2013 EB3I prior to Sep 2003 - 6.5K

4K is already more than the quota.. So imagine the rest is porting. 6.5K were remaining as of July. It's impossible all of them have ported post Jul 2012.

Yet CO moved the date ... so either give them visas or retro the date. There is NO third alternative here gcq. Right?

p.s. - Spec - you are right on your "absolutely criminal" comment. It looks like EB3I will benefit at the cost of EB3ROW. Only a guess as of now. I am not certain. But otherwise dates must retro for them. I cant see a third alternative.


Porting has been going on forever. Gurus on this forum might have started estimating it only recently. Wouldn't people be porting since decades ? It is not a new phenomenon. multiply 3K times 7 years, it easily crosses 18K. The problem is USCIS was considered all these as pending inventory though these were absent all these years. IMO it may not go back. Again I am not a guru in prediction, just a guess.

[GhostWriter]

Sportsfan33, mostly I agree with you but just for the sake of argument I would like to point out a couple of things.
Firstly for Eb3-I people with EADs, to port they still have to find an employer who will do the entire GC process. They don't need the H1 though and have more bargaining power as you point out. But still need GC sponsoring employer.
Secondly regarding motivation one can say that someone with a PD of say March-2008 in EB3 without an EAD and without even any prospect of EAD, if ports has a good shot of getting a GC in a year should be highly motivated. Probably more than someone who already had an EAD in EB3. Yes he needs to find an employer who will sponsor both GC and H1B which in this economy won't be easy. But if job market improves we can not rule out significant porting from this category either. I think people in EB3 ROW without EADs have actually been doing it since EB2-ROW has been mostly current.

But overall I agree with you we should expect less consumption from porting next year (hopefully).


I disagree. Back in 2005/06, no one had heard of porting. I didn't even know about it as late as 2007 (granted my knowledge was poor, but I would have acted immediately had I known).

The law was always there, but a systematic mass phenomenon that has developed in the last 4 years was absent. There are lawyers like Ron Gotcher who specialize in porting cases only these days.

Also, before 2004, all dates were current and the main delay was in the labor processing backlog centers. Porting to a higher category would have possibly *increased* that delay, so there was simply no motivation to port.

Also my 2 cents on porting. I agree to the hypothesis presented by Pedro and think we have seen the worst. This kind of mass porting was possible simply because people had EADs. As simple as that. Had 2007 never occurred, EB2-I could possibly be current today and EB3-I would be much further along. I have experienced myself what a lifeline the EAD provides. Even a part time income from my spouse makes a huge difference and gives me an ability to buy a house and stay in this country. It would be the same for anyone who was fortunate to get an EAD. These people could stay and they had enough time on their hands to port.

It would be difficult to do for people post 2007. Not saying they won't do it (I know someone from late 2007 who did it and actually got his GC in 2012 itself!!), but numbers simply would not compare. Your ability to move around on the H1B is very limited and a typical blood sucking desi employer would much rather exploit you than give you a fast track to the GC and a reason to leave him. That's just not going to happen. I believe the worst case porting scenario is done now especially that EB3-I date itself is near the end of 2003 now. We will see some porting from folks in 2005/6/7 for a while, but it will continue to reduce going forward.

[Spectator]

Not sure if this adds anything to what Q has already said or not.

Looking at the Demand Data, it has been clear that EB3-I overall reduces at a greater rate than approvals for EB3-I.

Looking at the Nov Demand Data (as at early October) and the last published Demand Data for FY2013 (as at early June), the following are the rough reductions due to PD that were Current during the FY versus total reduction for the FY for EB3-I.

------- Current --- All ---- Diff
FY2011 -- 3,550 -- 6,075 -- 2,525
FY2012 -- 2,500 -- 6,525 -- 4,025
FY2013 -- 3,550 -- 5,950 -- 2,400

I would attribute the main reason for the difference to be the removal of cases that had been approved under EB2 from the EB3 Demand figures. It is not necessarily the same as the level of porting, since that is only the net reduction.

[Jagan01]

Jagan, I promised a more detailed response but I'd not anticipated how busy you've been today, so it's taken me a while.

I've responded to each of your posts below, but I'm going to explain how I think of the process. I expect you already know this but i'm spelling it out to avoid confusion.

a) Whenever dates move, EB3 to EB2 porting is composed of pent up demand component (your type 1 porters who have moved jobs, have interfiled, are preadjudicated and are ready for a visa number, or your type 2 porters who have filed the new PERM, new I140 and are ready with their EB2 I485), and if the dates stay steady, there is an organic demand component generated each month (people with EB3 PDs before the EB2 current date that have completed an interfile application or have a new I140 approved).

b) The path forward for EB2 in the current environment is likely to be one where the dates move every Q4 and then retrogress the following Q1 and stay steady so that the organic demand generated is fulfilled by the 250 regular visa numbers available to EB2I each month pre spillover. Then in Q4 spillover comes in which will allow dates to move sufficiently forward to meet the existing EB2 demand and the pent up EB3 porting demand until that date. Your type 2 porters (who have never filed an I485 application) will take some time to receive their green cards, and will likely not get it because dates will retrogress before then. So they may not be incorporated in COs calculations when he moves the dates forward (Because he doesn't want to waste visa numbers since they won't be processed in time). However, they will be noted in the demand data as soon as their applications are preadjudicated so they will be known for the following year's spill over. This is what has happened in FY2013.



I think your assumption is that dates will retrogress significantly in Q12014 and then move in Aug 2014 to Oct 2008 by which time demand of 12K will materialize before Oct 1 2008. Since there is currently 4.5k of inventory between June 15 and Oct 1 2008 and since you are assuming 2K unfufilled demand pre Jun 15th (which excludes your type 2 porting for the reasons i mentioned above), you are assuming unfulfilled porting demand before retrogression and pent up new porting demand will be 5.5k in total. Also, I guess this 12K will only use spill over and not the regular 3K EB2I supply?



The 700 per month that would have ported had the EB2I PD always been at June 2008 are mostly incorporated in CO's calculations when he moved the dates to June 15, 2008. Only the 5K that you think have already ported post Aug 2007 are not, and this ties to the 5.5K figure i calculated above. I think it is high, but it is internally consistent.


Two things happened, a) he tried out quarterly spillover which came to bite him on his backside as EB2Row ran out of visa numbers and had a cut off date imposed and b) he wanted to build an inventory because if he waited until the end of the year he would have had insufficient EB2I applications in the queue to use up all the spill over.

You believe porting is going to be a steady stream every month until all EB3I applicants either receive their GCs from EB3 supply or port to EB2. I disagree. I think most people who want to and can port before June 2008 will have already ported by Sep 2008 (or be preadjudicated and incorporated in the demand data). The incremental organic porters will be far fewer than 300 pre Sep 2004 . I dont have any calculations at the moment, but my gut says the EB2 dates will retrogress to somewhere in mid 2007.
And surely my knowledge of the process can't come across as being so rudimentary as you imply above.

1) Your type 1 porters will not be available in the inventory. When they interfile and if their dates are current they will receive their green cards immediately. The organic type 1 porters will be met through the monthly visa numbers available, and the pent up type 1 porters just use up visa numbers from the spill over and get their GCs.
2) 2K of type 1 porters in addition to the 3K regular EB2I supply (which will also be used by type 1 porters), would indicate 5K of porting just pre Aug 2007 which is around what we're assuming for FY2013. You have to be pretty pessimistic to think that's going to stay the same for the same period (pre Aug 2007). PErhaps your 2K is not in addition to the 3K regular EB2 availability?
3) Of the trackitt numbers you pulled, the first 97 will have an EB3 I485 so they'll get their green cards in August 2013. CO has a very good idea of their numbers because he waited 12 days to release the VB.
4) The other 75 (so about 1.2k after applying the 6% figure) are a part of the 2K that you expect not to get their GCs before the numbers retrogress.
5) You wanted to research trackitt to answer how many type 2 porters with PDs before OCt 2008 would generate pent up demand before Aug 2014. The position of people on this forum that have researched the subject is that there are fewer EB3Is with 2008PDs than with 2007PDs so then the total porting figure pre Oct 2008 would be significantly < 6K (which is the expectation for 2013). I don't think you have looked into that. I haven't either.

If he held the dates constant and more applications are processed than he can give monthly 250 visa numbers to, he will have to retrogress the dates, or use quarterly spill over to meet the demand. He can't just do nothing.

As Spec pointed out, CO has sufficient EB2I inventory. He will also have plenty of understanding of porting demand by then based on this summer's applications, so he can make a pretty good educated guess about how far to move dates in August 2014.

That's a long post but i wanted to address all of your points.

Pedro,

Thanks a lot for your inputs. Finally I am able to figure out what went wrong in the 2012 fiasco and it was "Quarterly Spillovers". I had no clue that something like that could be done. Thanks a lot for taking the time to explain that.

I pretty much agree with the explanations that you provided except for the point where you say that porters will be less with PD 2008. The trackitt data for the porting cases that have their I-140 approved between June 2012 till today is as below:
Sep 2004 - Aug 2007 : 97
Aug 2007 - Jun 2008 : 75
Total : 172

Since these were approved post June 2012, they have never had an opportunity to be current prior to AUg bulletin. Hence these 172 have never been considered in any demand and constitute the type 2 porters (the ones who have never filed I-485). Thus the 97 have not yet been considered in demand and they do not have their EAD. I do not understand why you say that they would have their EAD. May be I am missing something here.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Pedro,

Thanks a lot for your inputs. Finally I am able to figure out what went wrong in the 2012 fiasco and it was "Quarterly Spillovers". I had no clue that something like that could be done. Thanks a lot for taking the time to explain that.

I pretty much agree with the explanations that you provided except for the point where you say that porters will be less with PD 2008. The trackitt data for the porting cases that have their I-140 approved between June 2012 till today is as below:
Sep 2004 - Aug 2007 : 97
Aug 2007 - Jun 2008 : 75
Total : 172

Since these were approved post June 2012, they have never had an opportunity to be current prior to AUg bulletin. Hence these 172 have never been considered in any demand and constitute the type 2 porters (the ones who have never filed I-485). Thus the 97 have not yet been considered in demand and they do not have their EAD. I do not understand why you say that they would have their EAD. May be I am missing something here.

If they had a PD of between Sep 2004 and Aug 2007, the vast majority of them would have had a chance to apply for their I485 in EB3 during the July 2007 fiasco (in reality, it's better to look at Sep 2004 to May 2007, because if the PD was June or July 2007 they would have likely missed the boat at that time). That EAD puts them in the EB3 demand data. They already have filed I485s and their applications are probably pre-adjudicated, so once they have their EB2 PERM and I140 approved, they can interfile easily, and will be approved for their GCs pretty quickly.

Those 97 are not in the EB3 demand data and not the EB2 demand data, but given that they were current in August, and likely interfiled in the first few days of the month, CO has a very good idea on their numbers. He would have included those numbers when calculating how far to move the visa bulletin. On the other hand, the guys with PDs after June 2007 probably don't have an EAD and so they have to put in a new I485 application in August or September 2013 and they will probably not get their GCs before the end of the FY on 30 Sep 2013. Hence, CO didn't need to consider them in his calculations.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Guys, I need the forum's advice on something. My priority date became current with the Sep bulletin (PD: Apr 3 2008, Filed for 485 in Jan 2012 and got an EAD/AP). I just changed jobs (3 months ago) and the attorneys with the new company are getting ready to file some paperwork related to AC21. My understanding is the paperwork is completely discretionary. Does filing it at this juncture increase, decrease or doesnt affect my chances of getting greened in the next few months (before EB2I retrogresses). Please HELP!!

There was some discussion on this thread a few weeks ago on this subject. I think kanmani was a part of that conversation so look up her profile and go through the posts she's made in the last month to 2 months and you may be able to find the discussion.

I think the majority opinion was that its better to hold off and not file the AC21, because the AC21 application may result in an RFE. Instead, do not file the AC21, but keep the documents ready, primarily an EVL from your new employer to use just in case you get an RFE for an EVL.

Still, consult with your lawyer, and if you don't like his/her response, consult with a 3rd party lawer. Murthy's firm does phone consultations that aren't super pricey, from what i've heard.

[indiasunil]

Gurus,

Please advice !!..

I received RFE email from USCIS along with all(06/14).. Due to my lawyer address change, it got returned. She called USCIS & also, sent new G-28 forms for address Change along with RFE re-generate..
Received address change, but as of today did not receive Physical RFE copy.
Lawyer opened Service Ticket on (07/19) no update as of now.. She called three to four times, still USCIS saying sent out and will receive by 08/19. Good thing is, Lawyer asked USCIS officer RFE information, they read complete RFE and also she asked the next step if not received by on-time.. They told as send all the documents whatever informed by phone along with a letter with explanation after 08/19(30 days period)..

Little tense, so just need an advise- Is there any better option which i have to think ?

Sunil

[jackbrown_890]

not sure if it was discussed here:
does anyone know the reason behind low Eb2Row and EB1 demand for last 2 months? and what will be the trend in 2014?

[Spectator]

I moved the conversation regarding EB2-C vs. EB3-C filing to this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2189-Should-I-move-from-EB2-China-to-EB3-China).

[Dodd_Frank]

You can open a Service Request to obtain a copy of the RFE. You could also have contacted your Senator to get a copy of the RFE.
I did the same got a copy (not mine but a boilerplate copy from both these methods) and sent the response.

[Pedro Gonzales]

not sure if it was discussed here:
does anyone know the reason behind low Eb2Row and EB1 demand for last 2 months? and what will be the trend in 2014?

EB2ROW is believed to be a mix of slow PERM processing given sequestration and focus of the USCIS on EB3ROW. EB1 is affected by the focus on EB3ROW, but i don't think that's the whole answer.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I moved comments related to early walkins for finger printing here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/238-Post-485-Filing?p=39008#post39008)

[Immigo]

Since the dates for EB3ROW have been moved fairly aggressively, what is the expected demand data buildup for EB3ROW assuming dates do not go past July 1, 2010 for the next few months ? This is important from two angles:

1) To understand if EB3I will get any spillovers next year from EB3ROW - this is good for EB3I and perhaps EB2I (if it discourages some level of porting to EB2I).
2) To understand how EB3ROW will moved forward over the next 12-18. This may be indirectly important for EB2I spillover as the motivation for EB3ROW to upgrade to EB2ROW will be less if dates are expected to move fast.

I have tried to arrive at a ballpark figure using these assumptions:
1) I have assumed a simple EB2:EB3 split was 50:50 for ROW (EB2 was probably higher in later years once people realized that EB3ROW was not moving)
2) I485 per approved PERM = 2 (actual value is probably 5% higher).
3) For priority date of 2007, 2/3 of EB3ROW is still waiting for for GC (since EB2.
4) EB3 ROW PERM is evenly distributed for 2010 (I know data is available, but being just lazy here)

Using the data on this forum and the above assumptions, I have used the below calculations:

a) EB2 approvals (ROW + Mex) / 2 = EB2 PERMs (ROW + Mex)
b) EB3 PERMs (ROW + Mex, no Philippines) = Total PERMs (ROW + Mex, no Philippines) - EB2 PERMS (ROW + Mex) (from a)
c) EB3 Demand (ROW + Mex, no Philippines) = EB3 PERMs (ROW + Mex, no Philippines) * 2

Sources of error: At least three - Have not included China (assuming may get at most their demand), PERM and EB approval data is not aligned. Philippines EB3 may consume more that its quota.

Based on the above, I arrived at an expected EB3 (ROW + Mex) demand till July 1, 2010 of approx 35K. This is roughly 13-14 months of demand for EB3 ROW + Mex (i.e. no China, India and Philippines). This should imply that next year FY their should be another round of inventory buildup for EB3 ROW. Using the above assumptions, it can also be seen that 2011/2012 are sweet spots for EB3 ROW and if CO decides to build an inventory of another 35K next year, EB3 ROW should move to Q3/Q4 2011 by September 2014. If CO decides to build inventory at 50K, EB3 ROW can move to Q3/Q4 2012 in September 2014.

If there is another round of inventory buildup next year, EB3I may be lucky again to get more than its quota. As mentioned above, this may be good news for EB2I as well as there will be less porting both from EB3I and EB3ROW.

Gurus - my assumptions are simplistic. I therefore request you to help arrive at a more educated guess on EB3ROW expected demand data buildup.

[helooo]

Q,Spec/Gurus
I think the pending EB2I cases upto 15th June are around 16k.If you have 18k spillover and again some visas from EB1.What sould happen to EB2I in Oct?I think it should move and once they go beyond 15th June inventory,they may retrogress but not in October because they won't know how many new cases filed before next VB.

[qesehmk]

heloo - I may be wrong but I don't remember when was the last time EB2I dates moved forward in October.

Given that the country and category is backlogged, I would imagine that CO has already moved the dates to a point where visas wouldn't be wasted. That creates the potential that he may retrogress in October. I have already commented earlier on why I think Oct won't see any movement and possibly even Nov. I think Dec is when dates will move. But my guess is only as good as anybody else's. So would be glad if dates move forward in october.

Q,Spec/Gurus
I think the pending EB2I cases upto 15th June are around 16k.If you have 18k spillover and again some visas from EB1.What sould happen to EB2I in Oct?I think it should move and once they go beyond 15th June inventory,they may retrogress but not in October because they won't know how many new cases filed before next VB.

[vizcard]

Q,Spec/Gurus
I think the pending EB2I cases upto 15th June are around 16k.If you have 18k spillover and again some visas from EB1.What sould happen to EB2I in Oct?I think it should move and once they go beyond 15th June inventory,they may retrogress but not in October because they won't know how many new cases filed before next VB.

Whatever spillover is available either needs to be used this fiscal year (ends Sep 30, 2013) or is "wasted" (in reality it goes over to the FB quota). The movement to June 15 is definitely to mitigate the possibility of wastage. Also, I don't think you've accounted for porting in your 16K. By my math, its 8K (prior to Jan 1, 2008) + 8K (Jan 1- June 15) + 7K (porting)

In my opinion, there is zero chance of forward movement and 99.99% chance of retrogression in Oct.

PS: I know you are agonizingly close to the COD but I don't want to raise any hopes unnecessarily.

[vizcard]

How did you factor in 7K porting?

Is it because you assume 500 per month and 500*14 = 7K as EB2I was effectively unavailable for 14 months?

This makes the projection for next FY even worse. 5K will be left over and will cause immediate retrogression. 3K will be server from the regular quota. 2K will be leftover even after that. So 12K pure spillover is needed just to get the dates in 2009. This needs to happen without FB spillover!

So its not 7K, its 5K. Point being is that heloo didn't have porting included. And yes, I do believe dates will only move to Jan 1, 2009 in FY14 based on the info we have right now. I will put a more detailed post at the beginning of Oct if more info comes out.

[pdmay2008]

In my opinion, there is zero chance of forward movement and 99.99% chance of retrogression in Oct.



CO spoke did not talk about EB2I retrogression in Sep 2013 bulletin. I would say dates stay as it is until November or December bulletin and then retrogress. Can he bend the rules to assign the visa numbers now, so that USCIS can approve the cases after Oct 1st 2013. Not sure how that process works.

[rosharma]

I know Jagan & Pedro had detailed discussion regarding Type 1 (Those who had EADs) & Type 2 (Those who never had EADs) porters. I am just trying to simplify few things. Experts please see below and advise if following assumptions are correct.

Facts about Type 1 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• Most of these type of porters must have applied for their 485 during July 2007 and received their EADs
• Type 1 porters never showed up in EB2 Demand or inventory. So there was not clear visibility of their numbers.
• Considering the COD of 15th June it is safe to say that most of these porters will get their GCs and clear out EB3 backlog somewhat.
• So for FY 2014 ideally there should not be any type 1 (Pre-15th June 2008) porters remaining.

Facts about Type 2 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• It is highly unlikely that this category of porters will receive GC before the dates retrogress and will show up as demand for FY 2014 (experts can you please provide the number?)
• Unlike Type 1 this category will show up in EB2 Demand/Inventory.
• I understand there will be ‘fresh porters’ adding to demand for FY 2014. I guess experts predict the rate of 300/month for ‘fresh porting’.

So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

[dorais]

It is a nice classification to understand the porting demand better for EB2(I).

Please note that with the EB3-ROW current, there would be fresh Type 1 porters (using AC21 after 6 months of 485 filing) that would consume the Fall across from Eb2-Row.



I know Jagan & Pedro had detailed discussion regarding Type 1 (Those who had EADs) & Type 2 (Those who never had EADs) porters. I am just trying to simplify few things. Experts please see below and advise if following assumptions are correct.

Facts about Type 1 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• Most of these type of porters must have applied for their 485 during July 2007 and received their EADs
• Type 1 porters never showed up in EB2 Demand or inventory. So there was not clear visibility of their numbers.
• Considering the COD of 15th June it is safe to say that most of these porters will get their GCs and clear out EB3 backlog somewhat.
• So for FY 2014 ideally there should not be any type 1 (Pre-15th June 2008) porters remaining.

Facts about Type 2 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• It is highly unlikely that this category of porters will receive GC before the dates retrogress and will show up as demand for FY 2014 (experts can you please provide the number?)
• Unlike Type 1 this category will show up in EB2 Demand/Inventory.
• I understand there will be ‘fresh porters’ adding to demand for FY 2014. I guess experts predict the rate of 300/month for ‘fresh porting’.

So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

[bloddy1]

I thought I would only start tracking not until the end of FY2014 given that my PD is June 2010 EB2I. But looking at the demand data/back log and the fact that there weren't a lot of filing in the year FY 2009, do you guys see a higher probability of above PD being current during the FY 2014?

To sportsfan's point, Is that why people are receiving NVC notices ahead of time? Any thoughts from gurus?

[vizcard]

I thought I would only start tracking not until the end of FY2014 given that my PD is June 2010 EB2I. But looking at the demand data/back log and the fact that there weren't a lot of filing in the year FY 2009, do you guys see a higher probability of above PD being current during the FY 2014?

To sportsfan's point, Is that why people are receiving NVC notices ahead of time? Any thoughts from gurus?

Date movement is a function of demand and supply. While its true that the 2009 demand is lower, the supply in FY14 is expected to be lower. I seriously doubt dates will move March 2009.



It is highly unlikely that this category of porters will receive GC before the dates retrogress and will show up as demand for FY 2014 (experts can you please provide the number?)


this is unknown at this point in time but as you point out, they will eventually be in the demand data.... most likely by Dec.



So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

Demand and inventory data by definition would not have "unknown demand" (otherwise it wouldn't be called unknown)

That being said there could still be pre-July 2007 folks who have not ported yet that might choose to do so. This number is still unknown.

[Jagan01]

I know Jagan & Pedro had detailed discussion regarding Type 1 (Those who had EADs) & Type 2 (Those who never had EADs) porters. I am just trying to simplify few things. Experts please see below and advise if following assumptions are correct.

Facts about Type 1 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• Most of these type of porters must have applied for their 485 during July 2007 and received their EADs
• Type 1 porters never showed up in EB2 Demand or inventory. So there was not clear visibility of their numbers.
• Considering the COD of 15th June it is safe to say that most of these porters will get their GCs and clear out EB3 backlog somewhat.
• So for FY 2014 ideally there should not be any type 1 (Pre-15th June 2008) porters remaining.

Facts about Type 2 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• It is highly unlikely that this category of porters will receive GC before the dates retrogress and will show up as demand for FY 2014 (experts can you please provide the number?)
• Unlike Type 1 this category will show up in EB2 Demand/Inventory.
• I understand there will be ‘fresh porters’ adding to demand for FY 2014. I guess experts predict the rate of 300/month for ‘fresh porting’.

So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

Points are correct. I think where we disagreed was the number of type 2 porters. EB2 Demand/Inventory will show those numbers soon. I am expecting that there will at least be 5000 of these type 2 porters that will show up in the next Inventory report.

[erikbond101]

Points are correct. I think where we disagreed was the number of type 2 porters. EB2 Demand/Inventory will show those numbers soon. I am expecting that there will at least be 5000 of these type 2 porters that will show up in the next Inventory report.

With next Inventory report we will not be able to differentiate ported numbers as old demand is already decreasing.
We will only be able to calculate ported numbers once DHS release the 2013 visa data.

[Jagan01]

With next Inventory report we will not be able to differentiate ported numbers as old demand is already decreasing.
We will only be able to calculate ported numbers once DHS release the 2013 visa data.

I think the CO has already accounted for the type 1 porters and the current demand while moving the date ahead. Therefore the demand prior to June 2008 should be 0 considering a world where there are no type 2 porters. I would say that the new demand that will show up for pre June 2008 would be mostly constituted by type 2 porters.

Of course 2013 visa data will be more precise but my point is that if there were no type 2 porters then COs estimations should be close enough and backlog prior to June 2008 should be less than 4 digits. So if we see a demand of 6000 prior to June 2008 in the next inventory then most likely 5000 would have been added by type 2 porting.

[Jun1308]

I think the CO has already accounted for the type 1 porters and the current demand while moving the date ahead. Therefore the demand prior to June 2008 should be 0 considering a world where there are no type 2 porters. I would say that the new demand that will show up for pre June 2008 would be mostly constituted by type 2 porters.

Of course 2013 visa data will be more precise but my point is that if there were no type 2 porters then COs estimations should be close enough and backlog prior to June 2008 should be less than 4 digits. So if we see a demand of 6000 prior to June 2008 in the next inventory then most likely 5000 would have been added by type 2 porting.


Jagan and Gurus,

Is there a possibility of CO not accounted for some of the Type 1 porters while setting the SEP VB ? Its possible that some of them getting ported in AUG,SEP months and some might got new EB2 I-140 approved with old PD and can request for Interfile now. Any idea how much will be that count ?

[vizcard]

Jagan and Gurus,

Is there a possibility of CO not accounted for some of the Type 1 porters while setting the SEP VB ? Its possible that some of them getting ported in AUG,SEP months and some might got new EB2 I-140 approved with old PD and can request for Interfile now. Any idea how much will be that count ?

This is definitely possible. I know one case (my brother in law) has asked for premium processing for his I140 and expects to interfile next month. In any case, he has repeatedly said he cannot see the porting cases. I think the original estimation of approx 5-7k porting covers all such cases.

[Pedro Gonzales]

So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

Rosharma,

It will take a couple of months for this demand to hit the demand data. As viz said, it should hit by the Dec release. Correct on all other points. As to 300 monthly porting, the dates will retrogress to a point where the organic porting demand is250 per month. We got 300 this month bcos of the FB spillover. Without that it's only 250 per month.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Jagan and Gurus,

Is there a possibility of CO not accounted for some of the Type 1 porters while setting the SEP VB ? Its possible that some of them getting
ported in AUG,SEP months and some might got new EB2 I-140 approved with old PD and can request for Interfile now. Any idea how much will be that count ?

I believe CO accounted for almost all type 1 porters so far. He had 12 days worth of data which should have been comprehensive. The cases you mention will be the organic demand that will continue to be generated every month, but those numbers I believe will be small going forward. We'll know if I'm right based on how far the dates retrogress.

[Jagan01]

I believe CO accounted for almost all type 1 porters so far. He had 12 days worth of data which should have been comprehensive. The cases you mention will be the organic demand that will continue to be generated every month, but those numbers I believe will be small going forward. We'll know if I'm right based on how far the dates retrogress.

We have discussed this in previous posts. Most people believe that CO has looked into type 1 porters while setting the date for Sep bulletin. So type 1 porters does not seem to be a real worry. Also from trackitt data there have been 66 applications of (type 1 + type 2) porters that filed I-485 in august so far. Spec can throw some light and tell how much this would translate to in real world.

There will be more type 1 and type 2 porters that will show up in September. type 2 porters in September will be a big number according to me. I am expecting that it will account for 5k additional applications that CO has not accounted for.

By the beginning of Oct we should have the trackitt data which will indicate the fresh I-485 filers (both type 1 and type2 porters). Once we have the trackitt numbers it would require some statistical analysis to tell us the number of porters that got in. Again, I think Aug month porters (people who filed 485 in august) are already accounted for by CO (thats what many here believe). Sept is an unknown zone for everyone.

[Jagan01]

So its not 7K, its 5K. Point being is that heloo didn't have porting included. And yes, I do believe dates will only move to Jan 1, 2009 in FY14 based on the info we have right now. I will put a more detailed post at the beginning of Oct if more info comes out.

Viz,

I am hoping that Jan 1, 2009 is a high level estimate. Once we hit Nov, we would have Oct inventory, demand, trackitt new I-485 applications, etc data to help us arrive to a better estimate. My date falls in Jan 2009 and would hate it to be Jan 2009. Hopefully Feb 2009 :)

Anytime I see Jan 2009, it scares the hell out of me...

[Spectator]

We have discussed this in previous posts. Most people believe that CO has looked into type 1 porters while setting the date for Sep bulletin. So type 1 porters does not seem to be a real worry. Also from trackitt data there have been 66 applications of (type 1 + type 2) porters that filed I-485 in august so far. Spec can throw some light and tell how much this would translate to in real world.

There will be more type 1 and type 2 porters that will show up in September. type 2 porters in September will be a big number according to me. I am expecting that it will account for 5k additional applications that CO has not accounted for.

By the beginning of Oct we should have the trackitt data which will indicate the fresh I-485 filers (both type 1 and type2 porters). Once we have the trackitt numbers it would require some statistical analysis to tell us the number of porters that got in. Again, I think Aug month porters (people who filed 485 in august) are already accounted for by CO (thats what many here believe). Sept is an unknown zone for everyone.Jagan,

I hope these figures may help you.

Cases received by USCIS from August 2013 on Trackitt.

After August 2013
PD Year -- No.
2000 ------ 0
2001 ------ 0
2002 ------ 0
2003 ------ 0
2004 ------ 3
2005 ------ 2
2006 ------ 9
2007 ----- 64
2008 ------ 1 (assume this is a mistake - user ritre)
2009 ------ 0
2010 ------ 0
All ------ 79


Here's the breakdown of PD 2007 figure by month.

After August 2013
Month --- No.
Jan-07 --- 1
Feb-07 --- 1
Mar-07 --- 1
Apr-07 --- 2
May-07 --- 3
Jun-07 --- 3
Jul-07 --- 5
Aug-07 --- 5
Sep-07 --- 9
Oct-07 -- 12
Nov-07 -- 13
Dec-07 --- 9
Total --- 64

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

I hope these figures may help you.

Cases received by USCIS from August 2013 on Trackitt.

After August 2013
PD Year -- No.
2000 ------ 0
2001 ------ 0
2002 ------ 0
2003 ------ 0
2004 ------ 3
2005 ------ 2
2006 ------ 9
2007 ----- 64
2008 ------ 1 (assume this is a mistake - user ritre)
2009 ------ 0
2010 ------ 0
All ------ 79


Here's the breakdown of PD 2007 figure by month.

After August 2013
Month --- No.
Jan-07 --- 1
Feb-07 --- 1
Mar-07 --- 1
Apr-07 --- 2
May-07 --- 3
Jun-07 --- 3
Jul-07 --- 5
Aug-07 --- 5
Sep-07 --- 9
Oct-07 -- 12
Nov-07 -- 13
Dec-07 --- 9
Total --- 64


Spec,

Thanks for the figures. They sure are helpful. I see from the monthly data that most applications are coming from Sep/Oct/Nov/Dec 07. These are supposedly the type 2 porters who have never filed I-485.
As mentioned before several times on this forum, there is a bigger incentive for people post Aug 2007 to port to EB2 as they have never even received an EAD.

Can you "Speculate" how many applications would these 64 translate to in real world. I feel the trend will be similar with approximately 15 applications per month of type 2 porters post Aug 2007.

[shreyasai2004]

Hi Gurus,

Can you let me know is there any chances of movement in Oct Bulliten.
If yes then how many months we can expect.



Thanks,
Shreya

[Spectator]

Hi Gurus,

Can you let me know is there any chances of movement in Oct Bulliten.
If yes then how many months we can expect.

Thanks,
ShreyaShreya,

If there is any movement in October, it will be backwards. I don't think there is any chance of the date advancing in October.

[qesehmk]

Agree w Spec. EB2I has zero chance of forward movement in Oct.
Shreya,

If there is any movement in October, it will be backwards. I don't think there is any chance of the date advancing in October.

[kalatta]

Agree w Spec. EB2I has zero chance of forward movement in Oct.

Q,

What about EB3-I? We all know it moved forward 9 months in spe bulletion. what will be the scenario for 2014? will it move forward or it will retrogress or stay there?

With the spill over capture and all other stuff, I still think atleast 1000 out of 7000 EB3-I applications that will be current in sep 2013 will be left unapproved becuase of USCIS inefficiency in processing the applications in time. Given that do you guys think the dates will retrogress or move forward couple of weeks every month going forward.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Jagan,

I hope these figures may help you.

Cases received by USCIS from August 2013 on Trackitt.

Here's the breakdown of PD 2007 figure by month.

After August 2013
Month --- No.
Jan-07 --- 1
Feb-07 --- 1
Mar-07 --- 1
Apr-07 --- 2
May-07 --- 3
Jun-07 --- 3
Jul-07 --- 5
Aug-07 --- 5
Sep-07 --- 9
Oct-07 -- 12
Nov-07 -- 13
Dec-07 --- 9
Total --- 64


Spec, Are these all originally EB3 petitioners? If so, I can't think of any reason for Sep through Dec to be higher than August other than Jagan's point of greater motivation to port.

But before i concede that point, I'd like to confirm that there aren't any EB2 to EB2 porters in these figures, i.e., folks that had prior EB2 I140s but moved jobs before they could apply for their I485s in early 2012 and missed the boat at that time.

[qesehmk]

Q,

What about EB3-I? We all know it moved forward 9 months in spe bulletion. what will be the scenario for 2014? will it move forward or it will retrogress or stay there?

With the spill over capture and all other stuff, I still think atleast 1000 out of 7000 EB3-I applications that will be current in sep 2013 will be left unapproved becuase of USCIS inefficiency in processing the applications in time. Given that do you guys think the dates will retrogress or move forward couple of weeks every month going forward.

I will reply here. Lets move EB3 discussion here.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2192-EB3-Date-Movements

[NOV2007]

Q/SPEC,

Based on Trackitt data which Spec posted couple of threads above, we have count of 69 new I485 applications filed in August 2013 for FY2007. As we all know Trackitt data is not near to complete accuracy, let us imagine total number of applications filed is 69*2= 138 new I485 applications. The count of 138 is far less than avarage monthly allocated visas i.e.238. So do you still think dates will retrogress for EB2I below Dec2007 in the future?
We have a bit of contradictory statements in earlier posts after COD moved to Jun152008, but I didn't get a chance to reply to those posts, in some posts it mentioned as date will retrogress in OCT bulletin and in some posts it was predicted as untill NOV/DEC dates will not retorgress. So, could you please share your insight on this.

Does anybody know Indiani/Dec2007 got their GC's? I wish they got it..and congrats to them.

[Spectator]

Q/SPEC,

Based on Trackitt data which Spec posted couple of threads above, we have count of 69 new I485 applications filed in August 2013 for FY2007. As we all know Trackitt data is not near to complete accuracy, let us imagine total number of applications filed is 69*2= 138 new I485 applications. The count of 138 is far less than avarage monthly allocated visas i.e.238. So do you still think dates will retrogress for EB2I below Dec2007 in the future?
We have a bit of contradictory statements in earlier posts after COD moved to Jun152008, but I didn't get a chance to reply to those posts, in some posts it mentioned as date will retrogress in OCT bulletin and in some posts it was predicted as untill NOV/DEC dates will not retorgress. So, could you please share your insight on this.

Does anybody know Indiani/Dec2007 got their GC's? I wish they got it..and congrats to them.NOV2007,

I think the figure was 64.

For 2007 PD the Trackitt % is about 10%, so that would represent 640 cases, if the % is maintained.

[Spectator]

Spec, Are these all originally EB3 petitioners? If so, I can't think of any reason for Sep through Dec to be higher than August other than Jagan's point of greater motivation to port.

But before i concede that point, I'd like to confirm that there aren't any EB2 to EB2 porters in these figures, i.e., folks that had prior EB2 I140s but moved jobs before they could apply for their I485s in early 2012 and missed the boat at that time.Pedro,

I have not analyzed the cases to determine which may be EB2-EB2 porters and which are EB3-EB2 porters.

If I tried, I suspect the profile information will not be complete and I don't fancy wading through all the individual posts to see if they have said anything more there.

[NOV2007]

Spec,

Thanks for your response.
Based on your assumption, 640 cases already filed in Aug2013. So its quite evident that EB2I date will retrogress in Oct bulletin itself and it would stand somewhere in 2004 /2005/2006. And people who are filing I485 for the first time i.e in Aug/Sep 2013 have no chance of sailing through till end of FY2014(Courtesy of some SO's).
Please correct me if am making wrong assumption.



NOV2007,

I think the figure was 64.

For 2007 PD the Trackitt % is about 10%, so that would represent 640 cases, if the % is maintained.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks for your response.
Based on your assumption, 640 cases already filed in Aug2013. So its quite evident that EB2I date will retrogress in Oct bulletin itself and it would stand somewhere in 2004 /2005/2006. And people who are filing I485 for the first time i.e in Aug/Sep 2013 have no chance of sailing through till end of FY2014(Courtesy of some SO's).
Please correct me if am making wrong assumption.NOV2007,

Not necessarily.

Cases newly filed in August won't show as Demand to DOS until they are adjudicated by USCIS.

CO won't have visibility of them when he sets the October VB and they may not be adjudicated in October either, since that would mean approval in under 90 days.

[Jagan01]

Spec, Are these all originally EB3 petitioners? If so, I can't think of any reason for Sep through Dec to be higher than August other than Jagan's point of greater motivation to port.

But before i concede that point, I'd like to confirm that there aren't any EB2 to EB2 porters in these figures, i.e., folks that had prior EB2 I140s but moved jobs before they could apply for their I485s in early 2012 and missed the boat at that time.

Pedro,

I think if there are any EB2-EB@ porters they will surely be very few. The point being that thy might not want to push out their GC unnecessarily. Of course if there are extreme cases like Employer mistreatment / layoffs / etc then those will port from eb2-eb2. I think that will always be a mystery.

But the EB2-EB2 porting is an important concept that I did not think about earlier. Would the CO be anticipating any EB2-EB2 porting ? Let us say there were 8000 applicants in inventory before Jan 2008. In that case the ones that ported EB2-EB2 would not get visa this time. Thus the real demand is less than 8000 for this FY ? Any thoughts. I am quite curious to hear from people on this forum what their thoughts are about EB2-EB2 porters. Their numbers ? Their chances of getting greened ?

[Pedro Gonzales]

Pedro,

I think if there are any EB2-EB@ porters they will surely be very few. The point being that thy might not want to push out their GC unnecessarily. Of course if there are extreme cases like Employer mistreatment / layoffs / etc then those will port from eb2-eb2. I think that will always be a mystery.

But the EB2-EB2 porting is an important concept that I did not think about earlier. Would the CO be anticipating any EB2-EB2 porting ? Let us say there were 8000 applicants in inventory before Jan 2008. In that case the ones that ported EB2-EB2 would not get visa this time. Thus the real demand is less than 8000 for this FY ? Any thoughts. I am quite curious to hear from people on this forum what their thoughts are about EB2-EB2 porters. Their numbers ? Their chances of getting greened ?

Jagan, The biggest source of EB2 to EB2 demand will be from neither mistreatment or layoffs, but from simply people moving to better opportunities without waiting for their GCs at their original sponsor. I have done this myself.

Anyway, while I have no idea what the EB2 to EB2 demand is, I don't expect it to be high. For that reason, I don't believe CO factors it into his calculations at all. Also, the majority of EB2 to EB2 applicants will not be in the inventory, because if they're in the inventory, they had a chance to apply for their I485, and if so, they'd probably just wait 180 days and move using AC21 rather than port (because porting requires you to redo PERM, I140 and a new I485 and so its a lot longer). There may be a few exceptions that had to move within the 180 day timeframe. Any of these porters will be treated exactly like an EB3 to EB2 porter, and is unlikely to get his green card before dates retrogress.

Spec, I apologize, I never intended to request that you dig through applications individually. I was just wondering if you had used such a filter in your search. I guess there isn't one. Thanks for the data.

[Spectator]

Spec, I apologize, I never intended to request that you dig through applications individually. I was just wondering if you had used such a filter in your search. I guess there isn't one. Thanks for the data.Pedro,

No apology needed. I'm sorry you took my comment out of context. I was really just reflecting that at the micro scale, the Trackitt data in the tracker is quite unreliable.

I often have to dig deeper into anomalous approvals to find the reason. Generally it turns out that information in the profile is either incorrect or incomplete.

[civilengineer]

EB-5 could slow down a little due to RBI rules
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/nri/visa-and-immigration/foreign-residency-rbis-capital-curbs-dashes-green-card-dreams-of-rich-indians/articleshow/21923165.cms

[Spectator]

EB-5 could slow down a little due to RBI rules
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/nri/visa-and-immigration/foreign-residency-rbis-capital-curbs-dashes-green-card-dreams-of-rich-indians/articleshow/21923165.cmsIt's unlikely to have any effect.

EB5-India only accounted for 77 approvals last year out of 7,641 (1%).

[qesehmk]

Yes, civilengineer - for good or bad - that article is a joke.

[Vkkpnm]

Hello Guys,

I wanted to ask a quick question: do you know at what stage a visa number is assigned to your I485? Is it at last stage, just before they are done with all background check, other verifications & ready to approve ?

[MATT2012]

Once an application is documentarily qualified in all aspects, which includes successful completion of background checks, a visa is requested. if visas are available for the case, a visa number gets assigned and GC is issued. if visa numbers are not available the case at the time of request the case will remain in demand until visas are available.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Matt. So after finger printing is done, do we know how much time does it takes for background check and other things? I have used two names in my I485 application (other names used) so do you think my application will be delayed because of this?

Appreciate your opinion on this.

[helooo]

Hi Gurus,Q
When will we know how many spillover used this year?

[qesehmk]

Hi Gurus,Q
When will we know how many spillover used this year?
We will have a rough idea when 485 inventory as of end of Sep 2013 published.

We will have clear idea when the DHS annual report comes out.

[vizcard]

Thanks Matt. So after finger printing is done, do we know how much time does it takes for background check and other things? I have used two names in my I485 application (other names used) so do you think my application will be delayed because of this?

Appreciate your opinion on this.

it will take longer obviously to check out both names. nothing can be done about it.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Viz

[JackD1]

Hello Everyone,

Just an update. Both my case and the dependent case status changed today to initial review. PD is 08/2008.

Thanks

[Jagan01]

Hello Everyone,

Just an update. Both my case and the dependent case status changed today to initial review. PD is 08/2008.

Thanks

Your PD is not current but the change is good. I am hoping that USCIS is looking to move the dates further ahead.

[vizcard]

today is that day for me :) ofcourse the rule doesn't apply to me :)

[MATT2012]

today is that day for me :) ofcourse the rule doesn't apply to me :)

Viz,

PD+6 won't apply to you either, your approval will be before that.. Good luck..

[Jagan01]

today is that day for me :) ofcourse the rule doesn't apply to me :)

PD + 5 does not apply to most... I think the rule needs modification...

I will be Pd + 5 and no EAD yet...

[Jagan01]

PD + 5 does not apply to most... I think the rule needs modification...

I will be Pd + 5 and no EAD yet...

Spec,

I am reading data from trackitt that is different from what u fetched. I am sure that it would be an error on my side. But I will just represent the data anyways. Please correct me as to where I am going wrong.

The number of applicants who applied for I-485 in Aug 2013 so far is 75. Also many entries are by repeated usernames and therefore the actual count would be more like 68. I will represent data for last 4 months as that is more interesting.

Dec 07 - 06
Nov 07 - 10
Oct 07 - 08
Sep 07 - 10

[Spectator]

Spec,

I am reading data from trackitt that is different from what u fetched. I am sure that it would be an error on my side. But I will just represent the data anyways. Please correct me as to where I am going wrong.

The number of applicants who applied for I-485 in Aug 2013 so far is 75. Also many entries are by repeated usernames and therefore the actual count would be more like 68. I will represent data for last 4 months as that is more interesting.

Dec 07 - 06
Nov 07 - 10
Oct 07 - 08
Sep 07 - 10Jagan,

I wouldn't worry about it too much.

I have extracted the figures from a database I keep based on the Trackitt data.

As you have observed, the original Trackitt data is quite messy.

All new entries are checked against existing entries so there shouldn't be any duplicates.

What can happen is that people subsequently remove their case. If that happens, it will still be in my database but not in the actual Trackitt tracker. It happens more than you would think.

I've been keeping it since October 2011 and it it just too difficult to cross check against the latest information in the Tracker when I can only grab 50 records at a time. I have over 4k records in the database now and it forms the basis for these posts (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012).

I use Country of Chargeablity = India. If you are using Nationality = India you will almost certainly get lower figures. That's a possibility.

My latest figures for PD 2007

Jan-07 --- 1
Feb-07 --- 1
Mar-07 --- 1
Apr-07 --- 2
May-07 --- 3
Jun-07 --- 3
Jul-07 --- 6
Aug-07 --- 5
Sep-07 -- 13
Oct-07 -- 12
Nov-07 -- 14
Dec-07 --- 9
Total --- 70


Either way, it should still give the trend.

[w253sxs]

My case status changed to Initial review as well on August 17, 2013. PD is July 22, 2008.

Dependent case status has not changed.

What does this mean. It may mean nothing, it is possible that they are just looking at cases close to current priority date. If all visas are used quickly, dates retrogresss this may mean nothing or it may be a good news.

Any comments by experts over here.



Hello Everyone,

Just an update. Both my case and the dependent case status changed today to initial review. PD is 08/2008.

Thanks

[geevikram]

Your PD is not current but the change is good. I am hoping that USCIS is looking to move the dates further ahead.

short by 18 days!!!

[skpanda]

Gurus.. quick Q:

A friend of mine has a EB3 PD in 2005. He has ported to EB2 and I140 is approved. However his 485 (that he filed for EB3 in 2007 fiasco) is still in review status since 2010. Now he is current.

What are his options to find out what is going on with this 485 application.

Thanks in advance for your advise!

[tackle]

Gurus.. quick Q:

A friend of mine has a EB3 PD in 2005. He has ported to EB2 and I140 is approved. However his 485 (that he filed for EB3 in 2007 fiasco) is still in review status since 2010. Now he is current.

What are his options to find out what is going on with this 485 application.

Thanks in advance for your advise!

Other than calling USCIS and opening an SR (since his application is outside of normal processing times), I don't think there is anything else that your friend could do. Requesting help from Congressman and/or Senator would be another option.

[skpanda]

Other than calling USCIS and opening an SR (since his application is outside of normal processing times), I don't think there is anything else that your friend could do. Requesting help from Congressman and/or Senator would be another option.

Thank you.. can you please point me to any link that gives the procedure to open a SR?

Regards,
S

[vizcard]

My case status changed to Initial review as well on August 17, 2013. PD is July 22, 2008.

Dependent case status has not changed.

What does this mean. It may mean nothing, it is possible that they are just looking at cases close to current priority date. If all visas are used quickly, dates retrogresss this may mean nothing or it may be a good news.

Any comments by experts over here.


short by 18 days!!!

Guys
There is zero chance that dates will move ahead in Oct.... absolutely ZERO. Some differ whether COD will retrogress or not (I believe it will) but there is absolutely consensus that dates will not move forward any time soon.

[Spectator]

Guys
There is zero chance that dates will move ahead in Oct.... absolutely ZERO. Some differ whether COD will retrogress or not (I believe it will) but there is absolutely consensus that dates will not move forward any time soon.vizcard,

I, for one, agree with you.

[gcq]

Other than calling USCIS and opening an SR (since his application is outside of normal processing times), I don't think there is anything else that your friend could do. Requesting help from Congressman and/or Senator would be another option.
One more option is to take an Info pass appointment.

[garihc27]

One more option is to take an Info pass appointment.
I am guessing opening a SR and Info Pass are only valid for USCIS and not for DOL. I want to check on my PERM status since the dates are current for Sept.

Thanks!

[waitinglong]

I have been following this forum silently for a long time. I am thankful to the gurus like Spectator, Q, Teddy, vizcard, Matt, Indiani and many others for the clarity that they provide.
My priority date is 2-July-2008, EB-2 India. I missed the boat this time by 18 days. So, when do you all think I would get the green card? Any inputs would be appreciated. I had applied for 485 in Jan 2012, but did not get gc in 2012 like some extremely lucky guys. I already have EAD and AP. I came to USA in mid-2003, so it is already more than 10 years working here for me. I am quite frustrated by all this wait. So, just wanted to know when I would get gc and get some peace of mind.

[qesehmk]

Unfortunately it could be as long as next August. But I am confident it won't be longer than 31st August. Best case is end of Q1 i.e. 31st Dec.
I have been following this forum silently for a long time. I am thankful to the gurus like Spectator, Q, Teddy, vizcard, Matt, Indiani and many others for the clarity that they provide.
My priority date is 2-July-2008, EB-2 India. I missed the boat this time by 18 days. So, when do you all think I would get the green card? Any inputs would be appreciated. I had applied for 485 in Jan 2012, but did not get gc in 2012 like some extremely lucky guys. I already have EAD and AP. I came to USA in mid-2003, so it is already more than 10 years working here for me. I am quite frustrated by all this wait. So, just wanted to know when I would get gc and get some peace of mind.

[yawali58]

Unfortunately it could be as long as next August. But I am confident it won't be longer than 31st August. Best case is end of Q1 i.e. 31st Dec.

How much Eb3 to Eb2 porting will occur next year, since chances of getting any other spillover ( Like FB this Year) are very less, will porting take up all EB2 quota?

[indiani]

How much Eb3 to Eb2 porting will occur next year, since chances of getting any other spillover ( Like FB this Year) are very less, will porting take up all EB2 quota?

possible, too early to say especially considering few thousands will be in demand prior to COD of sept bulletin

[Spectator]

How much Eb3 to Eb2 porting will occur next year, since chances of getting any other spillover ( Like FB this Year) are very less, will porting take up all EB2 quota?I think as indiani has said, it is too early to have a good idea.

We should remember that porting was at an artificially high level this year due to EB2-I retrogressing so early last year. Numbers should return to a normal level next year.

Will porting be in sufficient numbers to consume the initial 2.8k available to EB2-I? Almost certainly.

Yes, SO will probably be less, but it won't be non existent. The signs are that EB1 is receiving less approvals. In FY2014, EB2-WW will also return to normal demand and should provide some Fall Across.

It's not entirely doom and gloom.

I am constantly amazed that, one way or another, something always happens to keep SO to EB2-I high. I have no idea what it will be next year, but I've learnt the unexpected cannot be ruled out.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I think as indiani has said, it is too early to have a good idea.

We should remember that porting was at an artificially high level this year due to EB2-I retrogressing so early last year. Numbers should return to a normal level next year.

Will porting be in sufficient numbers to consume the initial 2.8k available to EB2-I? Almost certainly.

Yes, SO will probably be less, but it won't be non existent. The signs are that EB1 is receiving less approvals. In FY2014, EB2-WW will also return to normal demand and should provide some Fall Across.

It's not entirely doom and gloom.

I am constantly amazed that, one way or another, something always happens to keep SO to EB2-I high. I have no idea what it will be next year, but I've learnt the unexpected cannot be ruled out.

To summarize,

1) Lower EB3I to EB2I porting due to fewer months of EB2I retrogression
2) Fewer EB1 approvals
3) Lower EB2ROW demand (return to normal from exaggerated 2012 levels),
4) Potential decrease in EB2ROW demand below normal levels due to sequester, and
5) lower EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting, as a result of EB3ROW progression (temporary though it may be).

Will it provide as much spillover as 2013, I think not, but it's too early to tell.

[indiani]

I have been following this forum silently for a long time. I am thankful to the gurus like Spectator, Q, Teddy, vizcard, Matt, Indiani and many others for the clarity that they provide.
My priority date is 2-July-2008, EB-2 India. I missed the boat this time by 18 days. So, when do you all think I would get the green card? Any inputs would be appreciated. I had applied for 485 in Jan 2012, but did not get gc in 2012 like some extremely lucky guys. I already have EAD and AP. I came to USA in mid-2003, so it is already more than 10 years working here for me. I am quite frustrated by all this wait. So, just wanted to know when I would get gc and get some peace of mind.

average realistic expectation for forward COD movement than sept bulletin is may 2013 ( mine are very conservative estimates)

[suninphx]

How much Eb3 to Eb2 porting will occur next year, since chances of getting any other spillover ( Like FB this Year) are very less, will porting take up all EB2 quota?

I guess we will need to wait to get some concrete visa usage/catagory data for this FY before starting predictions for next year. For example there is a quite a wide range of EB2-ROW usage prediction on this forum with one gentleman predicting as high as 43-44K (and quite few on this forum in agreement with him). So it would be interesting to know what actual number was. Also, as this FY was first normal year after Kazarian memo hopefully we will get some baseline numbers for EB1 usage too. Those 2 numbers are primarily going to determine SO. We should treat any FB numbers as bonus (if we get any)

[suninphx]

I guess we will need to wait to get some concrete visa usage/catagory data ta for this FY before starting predictions for next year. For example there is a quite a wide range of EB2-ROW usage prediction on this forum with one gentleman predicting as high as 43-44K (and quite few on this forum in agreement with him). So it would be interesting to know what actual number was. Also, as this FY was first normal year after Kazarian memo hopefully we will get some baseline numbers for EB1 usage too. Those 2 numbers are primarily going to determine SO. We should treat any FB numbers as bonus (if we get any)

BTW- the gentleman who was predicting 44k EB2ROW usage and hence no movement beyond 2005 - I hope he already got his GC. God bless him.

[MATT2012]

I have been following this forum silently for a long time. I am thankful to the gurus like Spectator, Q, Teddy, vizcard, Matt, Indiani and many others for the clarity that they provide.
My priority date is 2-July-2008, EB-2 India. I missed the boat this time by 18 days. So, when do you all think I would get the green card? Any inputs would be appreciated. I had applied for 485 in Jan 2012, but did not get gc in 2012 like some extremely lucky guys. I already have EAD and AP. I came to USA in mid-2003, so it is already more than 10 years working here for me. I am quite frustrated by all this wait. So, just wanted to know when I would get gc and get some peace of mind.

it is too early to guess any date movement patterns for FY2014. Most, if not all here don't expect any forward movement in the first quarter of FY2014. To base any calculation for next FY, we need to get the official number of left overs from this fiscal(including the new I-485 applications). Porting will continue to happen throughout next FY, the numbers will be lower, but it will be higher than EB2I quota(2800). Regarding spillovers from other categories to reach to EB2I, it would at least take two quarters, if not three. It is unfortunately the scenario, we EB2I face. As we get more and more data in the upcoming months, we would be able to make early projections on how far dates could move through next FY.

[Spectator]

To show I am an equal opportunity moaner, :) I have to say that I remain baffled by CO's decision to postpone movement for EB2-I until August - particularly this year.

CO knew from at least March 2013 about the 18k extra FB visas.

Since that gave EB1 45k, I believe there could have been no conceivable risk associated with releasing 5-7k to EB2-I in July. That was late enough to see the pattern for other Categories and the first month free of any concerns about 27% per quarter.

That would have spread SO allocation over 3 months and would have been quite manageable for USCIS. Instead, a very large number of visas now need to be allocated over 2 months and this appears to be stretching USCIS processing capacity.

If less visas had ultimately been available, the numbers allocated in September could have been less, so I don't think there was any downside to moving earlier.

[mstanfield]

So Spec, since USCIS seems to process painfully slow and CO waited really late, do you believe there will be wastage of SO visa numbers at the end of this FY?

[Pedro Gonzales]

Spec and Kanmani (and perhaps others too) discussed the actual processing work involved earlier, but I couldn't find those posts.

For preadjudicated applications (assuming the vast majority are preadjudicated), wouldn't there be no real processing work involved for the USCIS other than
a) reviewing responses to the mass TSC RFEs from June.
b) rerunning the IBIS check.

Apart from these two steps, the allocation of a visa number, sending of the approval emails and printing and mailing of the card should all be fairly quick, straightforward and perhaps automated, no? If so, the only time consuming steps should be the ones above. Depending on when people responded to the RFEs, the USCIS have likely had 1 to 2 months to review them, and they've had 18 to 20 days before the start of the month to redo the IBIS check.

I doubt if RFE response processing is the hold up, because if so, we wouldn't see slow NSC approvals too. And in any case, if the time for this was insufficient pre August 1st, surely, by Sep 1st they'll have had enough time, so even if this was the reason in August, it shouldn't continue through September.

Given that, is the IBIS check the bottleneck?

[Spectator]

So Spec, since USCIS seems to process painfully slow and CO waited really late, do you believe there will be wastage of SO visa numbers at the end of this FY?mstanfield,

I'm not going to go that far yet, since it's so difficult to judge what the real number of approvals are, but I do think the possibility could have been avoided.

[qesehmk]

mstanfield,

I'm not going to go that far yet, since it's so difficult to judge what the real number of approvals are, but I do think the possibility could have been avoided.
Spec - the visas are definitely not going to get wasted. Assigning the visas is a one click operation. The process of conveying the decisions to applicants can continue beyond september into October. So I wouldn't worry about visas getting wasted.

[indiani]

Spec - the visas are definitely not going to get wasted. Assigning the visas is a one click operation. The process of conveying the decisions to applicants can continue beyond september into October. So I wouldn't worry about visas getting wasted.

Q,

I don't think they can register us as PR when dates aren't current, the email needs to go out when dates remain current, in this case if dates retrogress and somehow a case is pre-adj but actually approval not made , then they might have to wait until PD becomes current again.

They can't technically approve even one day before or after when dates aren't current

[Spectator]

Spec - the visas are definitely not going to get wasted. Assigning the visas is a one click operation. The process of conveying the decisions to applicants can continue beyond september into October. So I wouldn't worry about visas getting wasted.Q,

I almost certainly agree with you, but I am not going to make as definitive a statement as you have.

It's a few click operation once it gets in front of the ISO.

Apart from higher numbers, there is also more competition for that time than in previous years, since all of EB3 has moved forward substantially in September. Excepting the new forward movement for EB3-ROW/C/M, all the cases are either due adjudication or have been pre-adjudicated for some time.

[indiani]

mstanfield,

I'm not going to go that far yet, since it's so difficult to judge what the real number of approvals are, but I do think the possibility could have been avoided.

Spec,

when most of us didn't see any movement in august we knew one of the 2 scenarios will happen ; either there isn't enough SO or else there is enough SO but rapid movement will lead to chaos as uscis works on cases randomly and rather non-sensically and without enough processing capability.
the latter thing happened

[indiani]

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/AFM/HTML/AFM/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-1067/0-0-0-1166.html#0-0-0-276

the way adjudication works at uscis

[qesehmk]

Fair enough Spec.
Q,

I almost certainly agree with you, but I am not going to make as definitive a statement as you have.

It's a few click operation once it gets in front of the ISO.



Q,

I don't think they can register us as PR when dates aren't current, the email needs to go out when dates remain current,
We have seen october approvals in the past. I have never been sure what those are. But my best guess is that it is because of the very thing I earlier mentioned with spec above.

[Spectator]

Fair enough Spec.


We have seen october approvals in the past. I have never been sure what those are. But my best guess is that it is because of the very thing I earlier mentioned with spec above.Q,

I agree we have seen approval patterns in October that suggest that happens.

I guess I am just feeling slightly pessimistic because, until very recently, I hadn't considered wastage of visas in EB2 as even a distant possibility. I would describe my present mood as "hope for the best, yet fear (or at least consider) the worst".

I think it, at least, a subject worthy of discussion, although I also realize that it might further fray some already very ragged nerves. :( Because of that, I think I have said my last on the subject for some time.

It doesn't seem likely that we will hear an announcement that visas have run out part way through September this year.

[Jagan01]

Q,

I agree we have seen approval patterns in October that suggest that happens.

I guess I am just feeling slightly pessimistic because, until very recently, I hadn't considered wastage of visas in EB2 as even a distant possibility. I would describe my present mood as "hope for the best, yet fear (or at least consider) the worst".

I think it, at least, a subject worthy of discussion, although I also realize that it might further fray some already very ragged nerves. :( Because of that, I think I have said my last on the subject for some time.

It doesn't seem likely that we will hear an announcement that visas have run out part way through September this year.

Just a thought...

May be they did not move the date sufficiently enough for the month of August and hence lower approvals per day because lesser low hanging fruits (cases which can be assigned visas with minimal checks etc). The very fact that they have moved it 6 months ahead in September, indicates that they want a larger set and pick the easier ones and allot them the visas. May be they do not have sufficient pre-adj cases that are ready to be assigned visas in August and they are working on cases that are taking more time.

I personally think there wont be wastage of visas.

Spec,
How do we figure out in Oct whether there was any wastage of visas or not ?

[Pedro Gonzales]

What's the conversion ratio that the gurus have been using for EB3 primary to total conversion? Surely it's higher than the 2.3 that we've used for EB2, right?

Going through one of the receipt thread on trackitt, I just realized that the porters have significantly more dependents than the direct EB2 applicants. So I ran a search and took a random sample of 10 applicants, and found 4 applicants that had 3 dependents, 4 had 2, 1 had 1 and 1 had 0. That's 21 dependents + 10 primaries giving us a ratio of 3.1x. This explains to me why the porting figure is so much higher than I had intuitively expected. For every employee that moves to an EB2 job there are > 3 porters. The 6,000 porters that we expect for this fiscal year only requires 2,000 job changes.

Something that the gurus of course always knew, but the significance had escaped me until now.

[gc_soon]

How much Eb3 to Eb2 porting will occur next year, since chances of getting any other spillover ( Like FB this Year) are very less, will porting take up all EB2 quota?

I think there will be a possibility of some FB spillover next year. I was looking at the interview schedule for F2A at Mumbai consulate and I see only 2 interviews scheduled for this month(which seems too low compared to usual). But many people (based on other forums) are waiting for their I-130 to get approved or their case is still processing at NVC.
CO might have made F2A current little too late. 2 months is not enough time for USCIS to approve I-130 and processing to be done at NVC. Though CO said in the last bulletin that demand is getting built up nicely, I suspect there will be a few thousand visas wasted in FB and turn out as EB spillover for next FY.

[Spectator]

What's the conversion ratio that the gurus have been using for EB3 primary to total conversion? Surely it's higher than the 2.3 that we've used for EB2, right?

Going through one of the receipt thread on trackitt, I just realized that the porters have significantly more dependents than the direct EB2 applicants. So I ran a search and took a random sample of 10 applicants, and found 4 applicants that had 3 dependents, 4 had 2, 1 had 1 and 1 had 0. That's 21 dependents + 10 primaries giving us a ratio of 3.1x. This explains to me why the porting figure is so much higher than I had intuitively expected. For every employee that moves to an EB2 job there are > 3 porters. The 6,000 porters that we expect for this fiscal year only requires 2,000 job changes.

Something that the gurus of course always knew, but the significance had escaped me until now.Pedro,

I use a factor of I-485 per Primary applicant for EB2 of 2.05 as that is about the figure the DHS statistics give on a consistent basis.

The figures for each of the Categories for the last 3 years are:

------ FY2012 -- FY2011 -- FY2010
EB1 ---- 2.41 ---- 2.37 ---- 2.40
EB2 ---- 2.06 ---- 1.99 ---- 2.06
EB3 ---- 2.22 ---- 2.36 ---- 2.37
EB4 ---- 1.61 ---- 1.72 ---- 1.83
EB5 ---- 2.87 ---- 2.90 ---- 2.85

Previous years are very similar.

While the ratios may be different for particular Countries, there is no data available to split it down further.

[Spectator]

I think there will be a possibility of some FB spillover next year. I was looking at the interview schedule for F2A at Mumbai consulate and I see only 2 interviews scheduled for this month(which seems too low compared to usual). But many people (based on other forums) are waiting for their I-130 to get approved or their case is still processing at NVC.
CO might have made F2A current little too late. 2 months is not enough time for USCIS to approve I-130 and processing to be done at NVC. Though CO said in the last bulletin that demand is getting built up nicely, I suspect there will be a few thousand visas wasted in FB and turn out as EB spillover for next FY.gc_soon,

I also think that is possible. Good thinking to have a look by the way.

Fall Down also exists in FB and CO moved all the dates forward for September.

What do the interviews look like for other Categories?

Bear in mind, if you are looking at Indian Consulate Interview dates, that over 70% of FB visas approved for India are in FB4. India doesn't use huge numbers in any other Categories.

Spare F2A visas would fall to F2B, then F3, then F4, then F1.

It's possible Indian interview numbers may not reveal if other Categories are using extra visas for this reason.

I'm not sure if it would get that far, but Mexico and Philippines both have much earlier Cut Off Dates in F2B, F3, F4 and F1 than all other Countries.

I do agree CO made his date movements too late (for all Categories) this year.

[vizcard]

I think there will be a possibility of some FB spillover next year. I was looking at the interview schedule for F2A at Mumbai consulate and I see only 2 interviews scheduled for this month(which seems too low compared to usual). But many people (based on other forums) are waiting for their I-130 to get approved or their case is still processing at NVC.
CO might have made F2A current little too late. 2 months is not enough time for USCIS to approve I-130 and processing to be done at NVC. Though CO said in the last bulletin that demand is getting built up nicely, I suspect there will be a few thousand visas wasted in FB and turn out as EB spillover for next FY.

FB usage doesn't typically come from India. Its China, Phillipines, etc. that have the bulk.

[Spectator]

FB usage doesn't typically come from India. Its China, Phillipines, etc. that have the bulk.Not forgetting Dominican Republic and Vietnam.

India came in at number 6 for overall FB usage in FY2012 and number 2 for F4 use.

[qesehmk]

How about mexico? That's the big one.
Not forgetting Dominican Republic and Vietnam.

[Spectator]

How about mexico? That's the big one.I thought that was a given. Even viz didn't mention them.

The largest source of FB visas to EB this year was reduced use in F2A by Mexico last year.

My guess is that a large number of those are already in the USA and didn't want to leave to get the waiver, hoping that CIR would regularize their presence here, or waiting for the change where the waiver could be processed while they remained in the USA.

I have no information to back that up. It may well be 1 + 1 = 3

[kd2008]

I thought that was a given. Even viz didn't mention them.

The largest source of FB visas to EB this year was reduced use in F2A by Mexico last year.

My guess is that a large number of those are already in the USA and didn't want to leave to get the waiver, hoping that CIR would regularize their presence here, or waiting for the change where the waiver could be processed while they remained in the USA.

I have no information to back that up. It may well be 1 + 1 = 3

Spec,

Spillover from FB is expected next year in my opinion because F2A is current but its processing is super slow at USCIS. These are the dates from USCIS:

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

Field Office Processing Dates for California Service Center as of: June 30, 2013

I-130 Petition for Alien Relative Permanent resident filling for a spouse or child under 21 November 15, 2011

Field Office Processing Dates for Vermont Service Center as of: June 30, 2013

I-130 Petition for Alien Relative Permanent resident filling for a spouse or child under 21 June 4, 2012

Cases after these dates may have been processed but in general it indicates very slow processing by USCIS. So even after making F2A current, I think it may not generate a whole lot of demand. So there will be lot of unused numbers in this category.

Now whether this gets used through Fall down to other FB categories or be transferred to EB categories remains to be seen.

CO talked about setting a cut off date for F2A in October. this may imply that demand is greater than 1/12 of the quota after making dates current but it may not have been enough to use all of FY13 quota.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Pedro,

I use a factor of I-485 per Primary applicant for EB2 of 2.05 as that is about the figure the DHS statistics give on a consistent basis.

The figures for each of the Categories for the last 3 years are:

------ FY2012 -- FY2011 -- FY2010
EB1 ---- 2.41 ---- 2.37 ---- 2.40
EB2 ---- 2.06 ---- 1.99 ---- 2.06
EB3 ---- 2.22 ---- 2.36 ---- 2.37
EB4 ---- 1.61 ---- 1.72 ---- 1.83
EB5 ---- 2.87 ---- 2.90 ---- 2.85

Previous years are very similar.

While the ratios may be different for particular Countries, there is no data available to split it down further.

Thanks Spec. It is possible that due to the consulting model, EB3I are generally older than EB3ROW and so have more kids when they first come here. In any case my sample set of 10 is too small to make reasonable conclusions from.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Spillover from FB is expected next year in my opinion because F2A is current but its processing is super slow at USCIS. These are the dates from USCIS:

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

Field Office Processing Dates for California Service Center as of: June 30, 2013

I-130 Petition for Alien Relative Permanent resident filling for a spouse or child under 21 November 15, 2011

Field Office Processing Dates for Vermont Service Center as of: June 30, 2013

I-130 Petition for Alien Relative Permanent resident filling for a spouse or child under 21 June 4, 2012

Cases after these dates may have been processed but in general it indicates very slow processing by USCIS. So even after making F2A current, I think it may not generate a whole lot of demand. So there will be lot of unused numbers in this category.

Now whether this gets used through Fall down to other FB categories or be transferred to EB categories remains to be seen.

CO talked about setting a cut off date for F2A in October. this may imply that demand is greater than 1/12 of the quota after making dates current but it may not have been enough to use all of FY13 quota.kd2008,

Two points.

a) The vast majority of F2A are Consular Processed, so USCIS processing times are largely irrelevant.

b) Other Categories in FB can benefit from SO and CO has also advanced them more quickly than normal.

Since DOS carries out most of their processing in advance, cases can be brought to interview stage and visa issuance relatively quickly. Even if F2A Demand cannot be ramped up quickly enough, there are plenty of CP cases in other FB Categories ready to take up the slack if time permits.

I do think there will be some extra visas from FB next year, but i don't think it will be even close to the number seen this year.

[gc_soon]

kd2008,
a) The vast majority of F2A are Consular Processed, so USCIS processing times are largely irrelevant.
.

Spec, Just a minor correction: Since USCIS processes I-130 and the problem is the processing times for both CSC and VSC are still stuck way behind, so unfortunately many F2A applicants cannot take advantage of the fact that they are current since according to USCIS their I30 petition is still within processing time(national avg as per the dashboard for F2A is 18 months). From the forums elsewhere there are many F2A I130 filers with PDs in 2011 still waiting for I130 approval. Fromt eh dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) there are about 500K pending I130 (although not sure how much of it is for F2A which is current). The trend shows the fairly increasing number of pending apps. I guess there are tons of "hidden" demand in Family category because of slow USCIS processing - the fast movement of dates for F2A is misleading at best.

[Jagan01]

kd2008,

Two points.

a) The vast majority of F2A are Consular Processed, so USCIS processing times are largely irrelevant.

b) Other Categories in FB can benefit from SO and CO has also advanced them more quickly than normal.

Since DOS carries out most of their processing in advance, cases can be brought to interview stage and visa issuance relatively quickly. Even if F2A Demand cannot be ramped up quickly enough, there are plenty of CP cases in other FB Categories ready to take up the slack if time permits.

I do think there will be some extra visas from FB next year, but i don't think it will be even close to the number seen this year.

1. 2014 is the last fiscal year when we can expect some spillover from FB. Post 2014 there will be none.
2. I went back until 2008 and did not see any occasion when EB visas were unused. So that wont be the case this time as well.
3. FB has never been made current in the past. Hence this move of making it current will hurt EB post FY14.
4. The only times we have had good spillover from FB was when dates in F2a were 4 years in the past. Also it has been steadily in 2011 and hence for may, june, july, bulletins and hence demand must have been built up already.

[iamsheshu]

My PD is Nov 2008 EB2 India, Any idea when can I expect dates to be current ?

[vizcard]

My PD is Nov 2008 EB2 India, Any idea when can I expect dates to be current ?

Next summer

[Spectator]

Spec, Just a minor correction: Since USCIS processes I-130 and the problem is the processing times for both CSC and VSC are still stuck way behind, so unfortunately many F2A applicants cannot take advantage of the fact that they are current since according to USCIS their I30 petition is still within processing time(national avg as per the dashboard for F2A is 18 months). From the forums elsewhere there are many F2A I130 filers with PDs in 2011 still waiting for I130 approval. Fromt eh dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/) there are about 500K pending I130 (although not sure how much of it is for F2A which is current). The trend shows the fairly increasing number of pending apps. I guess there are tons of "hidden" demand in Family category because of slow USCIS processing - the fast movement of dates for F2A is misleading at best.Perhaps I didn't phrase it very well. I was referring to USCIS processing an I-485.

There's zero chance of a newly submitted F2A application being approved this year. It typically takes USCIS at least 6 months to approve the I-130.

The forward movement of the COD in August was nearly two years and a good number of the cases that became Current would already have an approved I-130 and be ready to proceed.

If Mexico is again the problem with F2A ,then there will be no shortage of applicants from other Countries prepared to proceed.

The question is more whether sufficient cases can be brought to the interview and visa issuance stage. Possibly not.

I think CO was completely caught out by F2A last year. That is not entirely the case this year, even though I do think he acted too late for all the visas to be used by the FB Categories.

[justvisiting]

The PERM slowdown has reached more than 180 days. For comparison, this time last year a PERM was taking about 60 days. This will slow down EB2-ROW considerably for next year. There is essentially a 4 month gap of normal EB2-ROW demand at this point (PDs in Feb, Mar, Apr, May)... these are folks who would have normally filed concurrent I-140/I-485 by now, but have not. USCIS has probably dried up their EB2-ROW pipeline: this is why 485 processing times seem to have improved.

[iamsheshu]

Next summer

Thanks for your reply.

[vizcard]

The PERM slowdown has reached more than 180 days. For comparison, this time last year a PERM was taking about 60 days. This will slow down EB2-ROW considerably for next year. There is essentially a 4 month gap of normal EB2-ROW demand at this point (PDs in Feb, Mar, Apr, May)... these are folks who would have normally filed concurrent I-140/I-485 by now, but have not. USCIS has probably dried up their EB2-ROW pipeline: this is why 485 processing times seem to have improved.

Downside to this is that if the processing time picks up, you now have a scenario like this year where EB2WW consumes more than normal.

[RogerFederer]

My PD is Nov 2008 EB2 India, Any idea when can I expect dates to be current ?

There is still a chance that dates can move further another 5 months. In that case they may retrogress later. If you get lucky, its urs. Reason being - perm slow down, approvals eb2I are not 100% etc. VB said eb1 & eb2 slowed down don't know how much. If there are visa wasted this year, it does not makes sense to me if they don't move them to october.

I'm being very optimistic and always enjoyed posts when they said there is still a chance.
So let's think about the chances you have, have couple of beers tonight since you had a good news :-)

[Pedro Gonzales]

There is still a chance that dates can move further another 5 months. In that case they may retrogress later. If you get lucky, its urs. Reason being - perm slow down, approvals eb2I are not 100% etc. VB said eb1 & eb2 slowed down don't know how much. If there are visa wasted this year, it does not makes sense to me if they don't move them to october.

I'm being very optimistic and always enjoyed posts when they said there is still a chance.
So let's think about the chances you have, have couple of beers tonight since you had a good news :-)

You're raising false hopes. Here's why:
1) The PERM slowdown has been going on for months now, CO knew how much EB2ROW FA to assume (EB1 is not affected by the PERM slowdown) when he released the September VB.
2) If there is a wastage of visas this year (which, while a possibility, most here don't believe will happen), it will be because of a bottleneck in processing application, not in the availability of approvable applications.
3) A potential wastage of visas this year has no bearing on the COD in the October bulletin. Except for 2012, CO has not shown an inclination to issue quarterly spillover, so the regular 250 visas per month is all that will be available to EB2I starting in October, and there will be sufficient EB3 to EB2 Porting to account for those numbers.

Dates are going to retrogress or at best stay constant. They will not move forward until the next spillover kicks in next summer.

[Spectator]

You're raising false hopes. Here's why:
1) The PERM slowdown has been going on for months now, CO knew how much EB2ROW FA to assume (EB1 is not affected by the PERM slowdown) when he released the September VB.
2) If there is a wastage of visas this year (which, while a possibility, most here don't believe will happen), it will be because of a bottleneck in processing application, not in the availability of approvable applications.
3) A potential wastage of visas this year has no bearing on the COD in the October bulletin. Except for 2012, CO has not shown an inclination to issue quarterly spillover, so the regular 250 visas per month is all that will be available to EB2I starting in October, and there will be sufficient EB3 to EB2 Porting to account for those numbers.

Dates are going to retrogress or at best stay constant. They will not move forward until the next spillover kicks in next summer.I'd also add, as it affects the beginning of the new FY, that both Trackitt and the latest USCIS Inventory show significant numbers of EB2-WW cases already awaiting final adjudication. Once September is over, USCIS will return to these applications.

[iamsheshu]

There is still a chance that dates can move further another 5 months. In that case they may retrogress later. If you get lucky, its urs. Reason being - perm slow down, approvals eb2I are not 100% etc. VB said eb1 & eb2 slowed down don't know how much. If there are visa wasted this year, it does not makes sense to me if they don't move them to october.

I'm being very optimistic and always enjoyed posts when they said there is still a chance.
So let's think about the chances you have, have couple of beers tonight since you had a good news :-)

Cool, thanks for your response. Appreciate it.

[newguy]

Hello All, I have few Questions regarding EB2 Date movement.. What made CO to move the date to May 2010 so aggressively in Nov/Dec 2011 and early 2012.. Is he not aware of Portings at that time? Is he not aware of yearly quota? Few say just to generate Demand.. i am not sure how valid is that point and ethically correct..

[IamGSN]

Hi All, I have been following this thread for quite some time, Mine is EB-2 India and PD is July 2009. Any idea when will my PD be current?

[Guest123]

Hi, My PD will be current in SEP and i have applied my 485. Currently i am travelling and will be back in the US on Sep 6th. Could you please let me know if there is anything that i should be taking care or be aware of for Sep 1st thru Sep 6th time period?

[vizcard]

Hello All, I have few Questions regarding EB2 Date movement.. What made CO to move the date to May 2010 so aggressively in Nov/Dec 2011 and early 2012.. Is he not aware of Portings at that time? Is he not aware of yearly quota? Few say just to generate Demand.. i am not sure how valid is that point and ethically correct..

The issue was that there was low demand AND low inventory. To add to that the applications didn't come in soon enough so he kept moving it further along. Now he should have used common sense and looked at historicals and even PERM data to see how much inventory he would be getting my moving x months. But you know what htey say about common sense.



Hi All, I have been following this thread for quite some time, Mine is EB-2 India and PD is July 2009. Any idea when will my PD be current?

Probably not till 2015.. unless CIR comes in to play.


Hi, My PD will be current in SEP and i have applied my 485. Currently i am travelling and will be back in the US on Sep 6th. Could you please let me know if there is anything that i should be taking care or be aware of for Sep 1st thru Sep 6th time period?

Keep an eye out to see if you are approved. If you are then you should inform the CBP official of the same when you land in the US. Otherwise theres nothing else to be done.

[vizcard]

There is still a chance that dates can move further another 5 months. In that case they may retrogress later. If you get lucky, its urs. Reason being - perm slow down, approvals eb2I are not 100% etc. VB said eb1 & eb2 slowed down don't know how much. If there are visa wasted this year, it does not makes sense to me if they don't move them to october.

I'm being very optimistic and always enjoyed posts when they said there is still a chance.
So let's think about the chances you have, have couple of beers tonight since you had a good news :-)

Dates will move ahead only in the summer or at the earliest spring 2014. There is ZERO chance of it happening before then. Drink those beers regardless :)

[tanu_75]

Dates will move ahead only in the summer or at the earliest spring 2014. There is ZERO chance of it happening before then. Drink those beers regardless :)

Yeah, it's over for this year in terms of moving ahead. At best it remains where it is, but those chances are also very slim. What's the consensus right now,settling somewhere in 2007 for EB2I in Oct? I guess it'll be a good indicator on also how many EB3-EB2 portings came through for PD's between 2004 and 2008 in the past two months.

[Guest123]

The issue was that there was low demand AND low inventory. To add to that the applications didn't come in soon enough so he kept moving it further along. Now he should have used common sense and looked at historicals and even PERM data to see how much inventory he would be getting my moving x months. But you know what htey say about common sense.




Probably not till 2015.. unless CIR comes in to play.



Keep an eye out to see if you are approved. If you are then you should inform the CBP official of the same when you land in the US. Otherwise theres nothing else to be done.

Viz, Thank you for the reply. Incase of an approval, what kind of proof should be shown at the port of entry and what would the outcome expected from the CBP official?

[tanu_75]

Hi, My PD will be current in SEP and i have applied my 485. Currently i am travelling and will be back in the US on Sep 6th. Could you please let me know if there is anything that i should be taking care or be aware of for Sep 1st thru Sep 6th time period?

Happened to me last year. Got approved while traveling outside the US, but at immigration informed the officer and was taken to the backroom and processed. Nothing major.

[vizcard]

Viz, Thank you for the reply. Incase of an approval, what kind of proof should be shown at the port of entry and what would the outcome expected from the CBP official?

no proof required (you won't have anything anyway)... they will check it on the system

[RogerFederer]

You will have your passport anyways. you will have EAD/AP card or H1 Visa for another US valid identity. If you really want to feel secure, keep a 485 copy as well.

[RogerFederer]

Dates will move ahead only in the summer or at the earliest spring 2014. There is ZERO chance of it happening before then. Drink those beers regardless :)


Well Im one of them who used to buy lottery tickets :) until I realized I cant cash them even if I win them. lol. one drink to scold pedro, one drink cursing viz for crushing the hope :) kidding.

[Jagan01]

Well Im one of them who used to buy lottery tickets :) until I realized I cant cash them even if I win them. lol. one drink to scold pedro, one drink cursing viz for crushing the hope :) kidding.


Why cant you cash them ?

[RogerFederer]

Why cant you cash them ?

I guess it depends state laws. But some tickets clearly states the rules that non immigrants can't cash at all or more than a specific amount.
They say citizen of *, perm res of * etc to cash it if anyone wins

[Pedro Gonzales]

I guess it depends state laws. But some tickets clearly states the rules that non immigrants can't cash at all or more than a specific amount.
They say citizen of *, perm res of * etc to cash it if anyone wins

There are ways to get around that. Every now and then during the initial years of a recession, hedge fund managers from CT start to win the lottery in a hugely disproportionate compared to their % of the population. Even less likely they actually bought the tickets given how well they understand probability. In that case they are able to offset their tax losses in the stock market, and thereby actually get a larger % of the proceeds than otherwise. I'm sure you can find someone that'll be willing to represent you if you win.

However, the beer you spoke of is probably a far better investment than the lottery tickets.

[Spectator]

I guess it depends state laws. But some tickets clearly states the rules that non immigrants can't cash at all or more than a specific amount.
They say citizen of *, perm res of * etc to cash it if anyone winsThe Permanent Resident refers to the IRS definition of the term, not the Immigration one.

I can imagine that some states have limits on Non Residents (in the TAX rather than IMMIGRANT sense) being eligible.

There probably isn't a single person on the forum who isn't Resident for tax purposes due to the Substantial Presence Test.

Certainly Non Residents are eligible in some States and a hefty sum is withheld as a flat 30% rate Federal tax and State tax might be applicable depending where the purchase was made.

Non Residents are apparently eligible to buy Powerball and MegaMillions, since both are multi-state lotteries.

The tickets must be purchased in the USA and different lotteries (Powerball is one I believe) also have rules stipulating that the prize must be claimed in the State the ticket was purchased.

YMMV

[qesehmk]

This makes much more sense. The word probably is resident rather than permanent resident. And the POV is IRS rather than USCIS.
The Permanent Resident refers to the IRS definition of the term, not the Immigration one.

I can imagine that some states have limits on Non Residents (in the TAX rather than IMMIGRANT sense) being eligible.

There probably isn't a single person on the forum who isn't Resident for tax purposes due to the Substantial Presence Test.

Certainly Non Residents are eligible in some States and a hefty sum is withheld as a flat 30% rate Federal tax and State tax might be applicable depending where the purchase was made.

Non Residents are apparently eligible to buy Powerball and MegaMillions, since both are multi-state lotteries.

The tickets must be purchased in the USA and different lotteries (Powerball is one I believe) also have rules stipulating that the prize must be claimed in the State the ticket was purchased.

YMMV

[NOV2007]

Q/SPEC,

I need help here.
I have applied for my I485 this month. Waiting for approval of EAD,AP and I485. But, my apartment lease is getting over by end of September. I have been asked to vacate the apartment for remodeling. I have to move out from the apartment, but am trying to negotiate with apartment office to extend it till end of this Year i.e. 12/2013. So, they are taking advantage of the situation now by increasing rent by 40%. Am little confused should I vacate the apartment or do I have chances if I wait till Dec2013 to get GC? MyPD is in NOV2007.



This makes much more sense. The word probably is resident rather than permanent resident. And the POV is IRS rather than USCIS.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Q/SPEC,

I need help here.
I have applied for my I485 this month. Waiting for approval of EAD,AP and I485. But, my apartment lease is getting over by end of September. I have been asked to vacate the apartment for remodeling. I have to move out from the apartment, but am trying to negotiate with apartment office to extend it till end of this Year i.e. 12/2013. So, they are taking advantage of the situation now by increasing rent by 40%. Am little confused should I vacate the apartment or do I have chances if I wait till Dec2013 to get GC? MyPD is in NOV2007.

I don't see the issue here. Why wouldn't you just move and file an AR11 and call the 1800 number? Or ask your lawyer to do so. What am i missing?

https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?action=coa

[NOV2007]

Thanks Pedro. But what I heard due to address change the process gets delayed by subjecting to background check again. So many people who have vicinity of getting GC don't consider changing address and filing ar-11 forms and updating all applications. So my question for you,Q/Spec was to know if there are any chances of NOV2007 remaining current untill NOV or DEC this year. If its not going to be current then I don't have pay twice the rent what am paying currently and I can go with what you suggested in your previous post. I know its quite difficult for Q/SPEC to predict here, since they don't have any accurate metrics to perform their calculation and analysis. But, its just a suggestion am seeking.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Thanks Pedro. But what I heard due to address change the process gets delayed by subjecting to background check again. So many people who have vicinity of getting GC don't consider changing address and filing ar-11 forms and updating all applications. So my question for you,Q/Spec was to know if there are any chances of NOV2007 remaining current untill NOV or DEC this year. If its not going to be current then I don't have pay twice the rent what am paying currently and I can go with what you suggested in your previous post. I know its quite difficult for Q/SPEC to predict here, since they don't have any accurate metrics to perform their calculation and analysis. But, its just a suggestion am seeking.

I hadn't heard of an address change causing delays, but I can see how it would be a concern. For what it's worth, I've heard of cases on trackitt where address changes resulted in the application getting picked up and approved . Have you looked through the various threads on the subject there?

I think most gurus here think the dates will retrogress in October or November, and that it is unlikely (though certainly possible) that you will get before your GC before then. Comparing the relative probability of getting your GC pre retrogression (say 25%) against the probability of a delay due to a change of address (in my mind 10%), I can't justify paying any more in rent just on account of your GC.

[vizcard]

Thanks Pedro. But what I heard due to address change the process gets delayed by subjecting to background check again. So many people who have vicinity of getting GC don't consider changing address and filing ar-11 forms and updating all applications. So my question for you,Q/Spec was to know if there are any chances of NOV2007 remaining current untill NOV or DEC this year. If its not going to be current then I don't have pay twice the rent what am paying currently and I can go with what you suggested in your previous post. I know its quite difficult for Q/SPEC to predict here, since they don't have any accurate metrics to perform their calculation and analysis. But, its just a suggestion am seeking.

you'll see the Oct VB by mid-Sept at the latest. So you'll have a little bit more info to decide to stay on (personally I wouldn't stay). Also, I dont know how it works with government mail but can you "hold mail" at the post office and just pick it up in person?

I really doubt they will re-do a background check based on a new address that you've had for a few days (at most).

[Maksimus]

Long time reader and follower (like since late 2010) of the blog. Finally joined here. Thanks every one for your analysis and readiness to help every query. This is an awesome place!

[NOV2007]

Thanks MakSimus for registering on this site.
I would request all others who just get-in to this forum as visitor and leaving, to create thier ids. This is just my request to creare a id here and post your thoughts and understanding of how PD will move. This way exchanging information here helps lot of people.

Viz/Pedro, Thanks for your quick reply.
Viz: what you say makes sense, next VB will definitely lead us to good numbers to formulate predictions for next FY. Will wait till next month end and decide upon address change.


Long time reader and follower (like since late 2010) of the blog. Finally joined here. Thanks every one for your analysis and readiness to help every query. This is an awesome place!

[justwaiting]

This is my first post on this forum. First of all I would like to thank all the gurus for their selfless effort to provide accurate calculations and predictions.

I know the chances of dates moving in Oct bulletin is almost NIL and I had set my expectations for 3rd quarter of 2014. But after receiving RFE today there is this small ray of hope in me that tells be dates might move in Oct. Gurus please share your thoughts.

My PD : Jul-02-2008

[RogerFederer]

Thanks MakSimus for registering on this site.
I would request all others who just get-in to this forum as visitor and leaving, to create thier ids. This is just my request to creare a id here and post your thoughts and understanding of how PD will move. This way exchanging information here helps lot of people.

Viz/Pedro, Thanks for your quick reply.
Viz: what you say makes sense, next VB will definitely lead us to good numbers to formulate predictions for next FY. Will wait till next month end and decide upon address change.

Its better to submit address change now, once you have receipts. If its next month , there can timing issues with ead approvals. If u have h1 in parallel and moving out of state or such conditions are the problem creators.

[indiani]

This is my first post on this forum. First of all I would like to thank all the gurus for their selfless effort to provide accurate calculations and predictions.

I know the chances of dates moving in Oct bulletin is almost NIL and I had set my expectations for 3rd quarter of 2014. But after receiving RFE today there is this small ray of hope in me that tells be dates might move in Oct. Gurus please share your thoughts.

My PD : Jul-02-2008

your RFE has nothing to do with date movements but its good that someone reviewed your file and will clarify all their questions and once you are current ( probably in 3rd/4th Q) you will have less chances of RFE.

[vizcard]

your RFE has nothing to do with date movements but its good that someone reviewed your file and will clarify all their questions and once you are current ( probably in 3rd/4th Q) you will have less chances of RFE.

Agree 100% with Indiani. It's a very good sign for those current now as well as those who are just outside the window.
1) they are processing cases past the COD in advance
2) they are in good shape with ppl current in august to have the bandwidth to do so

[kd2008]

Spec, According to http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf there are about 220,000 people in waiting list for F2A. The annual quota was 88,000. CO thought that to use the annual quota he has to make dates current and so he did. Does this imply that 88,000 of the 220,000 follow through with a visa request? May be a little more depending on where the cutoff date lands in October bulletin. To me it is a curious case.

Why create a cutoff date in October? Why not wait till the exhaustion of Q1 quota and see where the usage lands. Or does CO think, the additional demand from making dates current is enough to use up Q1 quota? Your insight are very helpful in building an analytical picture. Thanks for all the wonderful work you do on the forum.

[mechanical13]

Agree 100% with Indiani. It's a very good sign for those current now as well as those who are just outside the window.
1) they are processing cases past the COD in advance
2) they are in good shape with ppl current in august to have the bandwidth to do so

I am a little confused - would be great if one of the gurus could explain the process to me:

- my understanding was that most 485 cases filed in 2011/2012 have been pre-adjudicated and are now waiting in some sort of 'cold storage', waiting for PD to come close so they can be retrieved and approved when a VISA number becomes available.

- if thats thats the case, then why would getting a RFE for a July 2008 case not be a sign that dates may move forward again?

- lastly, except for final RFE for EVL (or whatever else), what kind of processing may USCIS need to do once the case is pre-adj? Does this mean that a large number of cases remain in cold storage that are not pre-adj?

Thanks!

[vizcard]

I am a little confused - would be great if one of the gurus could explain the process to me:

- my understanding was that most 485 cases filed in 2011/2012 have been pre-adjudicated and are now waiting in some sort of 'cold storage', waiting for PD to come close so they can be retrieved and approved when a VISA number becomes available.


this is true



- if thats thats the case, then why would getting a RFE for a July 2008 case not be a sign that dates may move forward again?


Dates will move forward at some time or another. It doesn't mean they'll move forward in Oct.



- lastly, except for final RFE for EVL (or whatever else), what kind of processing may USCIS need to do once the case is pre-adj? Does this mean that a large number of cases remain in cold storage that are not pre-adj?
Thanks!

based on the last data, almost all cases are pre-adjudicated. But pre-adjudicated doesn't mean approved. So the case officer reserves the right to review the case again and RFE. It could be anything from a birth certificate review to another background check.. its up to the case officer.

[Spectator]

Spec, According to http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf there are about 220,000 people in waiting list for F2A. The annual quota was 88,000. CO thought that to use the annual quota he has to make dates current and so he did. Does this imply that 88,000 of the 220,000 follow through with a visa request? May be a little more depending on where the cutoff date lands in October bulletin. To me it is a curious case.

Why create a cutoff date in October? Why not wait till the exhaustion of Q1 quota and see where the usage lands. Or does CO think, the additional demand from making dates current is enough to use up Q1 quota? Your insight are very helpful in building an analytical picture. Thanks for all the wonderful work you do on the forum.kd,

I assume that when CO saw the reports from the Consulates in the first week of July, he concluded that insufficient applicants were following through with NVC to reach the interview stage to use up the available visas for the year. We can probably ignore AOS because it won't form a large part of F2A approvals (<5% last year). To do so, applicants need to submit what was called packet 4 and NVC need to process it.

Since 95%+ of approvals will come from within the DOS system, I imagine CO is receiving pretty good information from NVC on the number of people who are now processing packet 4.

I would guess he already knows that there will be more applicants documentarily qualified in October than can be sustained by the allocation for F2A in October 2013.

There's some previous history that such movements generate significant Demand.

When the dates for F2A were last moved forward in a similar manner from June 2010 to December 2010, the dates reached 01AUG10 in the December VB, having started at 01DEC06 in the May VB. Following that, over a 3 month period, the dates retrogressed to 01JAN07 in the March 2011 VB.

In the July 2010 VB he used fairly similar language to that used recently.


D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE FAMILY-SPONSORED CATEGORIES

There continues to be extremely rapid forward movement of most Family preference cut-off dates. This is a direct result of the lack of demand by potential applicants who have chosen not to pursue final action on their cases, or who may no longer be eligible for status. The rapid movement provides the best opportunity to maximize number use under the FY-2010 annual numerical limitations. Should applicants eventually decide to pursue action on their cases it will have a significant impact on the cut-off dates.

He then warned of retrogression in the December VB. He then retrogressed in the January VB and warned of further retrogression, which followed in both the February and March VBs.

That's my best guess anyway.

[helooo]

Hi Q,Gurus,
If the dates retrogress in next VB,then what scenario can move the dates forward at the end of first quarter?

[Spectator]

Hi Q,Gurus,
If the dates retrogress in next VB,then what scenario can move the dates forward at the end of first quarter?None that I can realistically think of.

Even if there were some spare FB visas, I don't think CO would release them that early in the year.

The only scenario I could see would be if retrogression was extremely harsh and then the actual distribution of the PD for the cases allowed some forward movement to use the allocation. Even in that scenario, it would still be a net retrogression from where we are today.

Hopefully, CO will realize that leaving movement to August is just too late and move slightly earlier next year. I still wouldn't expect any real movement until late Q3, and only then if a large amount of SO is expected.

When he had a large number and moved from May, it worked reasonably well in FY2011.

[infoseek]

Spec predicted very accurately in Nov 2012 that.... "Assuming no porting, EB2-C should reach around mid 2008 by the end of FY2013"... however I did not anticipate a complete lack of movement once it hits the mid 2008(which it did in June 2013). Gurus, can you explain the reasoning behind the lack of movement for EB2 China? any predictions for FY2014? As always, thanks for the excellent analysis and information.

[Spectator]

Spec predicted very accurately in Nov 2012 that.... "Assuming no porting, EB2-C should reach around mid 2008 by the end of FY2013"... however I did not anticipate a complete lack of movement once it hits the mid 2008(which it did in June 2013). Gurus, can you explain the reasoning behind the lack of movement for EB2 China? any predictions for FY2014? As always, thanks for the excellent analysis and information.infoseek,

Ultimately EB2-C moved slightly further because the 7% figure increased from 2,803 to 3,172.

Personally, I still believe the law says EB2-C should receive 7% of any Fall Down, but the lack of movement suggests that is not the interpretation used. Either that or there were quite a lot of Porting/New Applications that were approved.

Why the date movement stopped so early is a mystery to me. I can only guess that CO accelerated it a bit early, then hit the limit.

Assuming all cases before 08AUG08 were approved, no porting and 2,803 visa being available, EB2-C would reach a Cut Off Date of 01JUN09 by the end of FY2014.

So I think we're looking at anywhere in the 01MAR09 to 01JUN09 range.

That also assumes no extra FB visas are available. Clearly the dates could move a little further if there were extra visas from FB.

[infoseek]

infoseek,

Ultimately EB2-C moved slightly further because the 7% figure increased from 2,803 to 3,172.

Personally, I still believe the law says EB2-C should receive 7% of any Fall Down, but the lack of movement suggests that is not the interpretation used. Either that or there were quite a lot of Porting/New Applications that were approved.

Why the date movement stopped so early is a mystery to me. I can only guess that CO accelerated it a bit early, then hit the limit.

Assuming all cases before 08AUG08 were approved, no porting and 2,803 visa being available, EB2-C would reach a Cut Off Date of 01JUN09 by the end of FY2014.

So I think we're looking at anywhere in the 01MAR09 to 01JUN09 range.

That also assumes no extra FB visas are available. Clearly the dates could move a little further if there were extra visas from FB.

Thanks Spec. What was also interesting was that June 2013 also happens to be the month when EB3C went ahead of EB2C and continued to do so while EB2C stood still... points more to EB2 not receiving the 7% Fall Down as you suggested rather than porting related demand. I think I also saw few posts where there were discussions about reverse porting (EB2C to EB3C)

[helooo]

Any idea when can we see the inventory/demand data?

[fun4dddd]

Any idea when can we see the inventory/demand data?

In October, the EB2I would move to Aug-28-2008.

[helooo]

In October, the EB2I would move to Aug-28-2008.
Are you serious?

[qesehmk]

Unfortunately but absolutely none heloo.
Hi Q,Gurus,
If the dates retrogress in next VB,then what scenario can move the dates forward at the end of first quarter?

[vizcard]

Are you serious?

Ofcourse he's not.

[fun4dddd]

Ofcourse he's not.

Sorry, I made a mistake about the exact date, it should be August-29-2008 not August-28-2008

[GhostWriter]

A new thread with the poll (Do you favor HR 2131 over status quo) along with relevant information about the bill has been created at the link below. Please review the information and vote. This can give us an idea about our opinion in aggregate. The poll is at the top of the page and there are details in the posts on the same page.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2213-Poll-Do-you-favor-HR2131-over-status-quo-(no-bill)

Thanks

PS: Since this is the most visited page, and many people might not have seen the discussion on the other page, I thought I will post the link to the poll here, so that more people can vote.

[Guest123]

All approvals per trackitt seems to be for RDs in Jan 2012 and later.

Are there any approvals for Dec 2011 RDs with PDs before Apr 2008?

[rka_72]

Hello Gurus
I have a concern arising out of my friend's case just yesterday.
His I-140 that was approved earlier this year was revoked as some officer 'reviewing or working' his labor application decided to have the supervisory recruitment (that means at every stage that officer has to be informed including video/recording of the interviews of the candidates that respond to the advt that the company does for labor again.

6 similar cases happened in my company (4 last week and 2 yesterday)

I have labor / I -140 approved in 2011 (PD 26NOV2008) and I filed my I-1485 in Jan 2012 and had received EAD in FEB 2012. I read somewhere that similar cases (to mine) have also had their I-140 revoked.

Another complexity is that my H1 is expiring end of this month and waiting for its extension based on approved I-140. Can the above situation affect my H1 approval process? I am very anxious to get some suggestions that can help me mitigate my risk.

FYI...My friend is going to file an appeal in some court as I know.

[qesehmk]

rka - sorry to hear this. unfortunately the officer is within his rights / discretion - so all the candidates and employers can and should do is cooperate and have it approved with concurrence from the agency.

However I do think H1 approval shouldn't be an issue because the candidates can say that 140 was approved and revoked and the revocation is under review. so there is some ground there for H1 to be approved without problems. But definitely need lawyer on this one.

Hello Gurus
I have a concern arising out of my friend's case just yesterday.
His I-140 that was approved earlier this year was revoked as some officer 'reviewing or working' his labor application decided to have the supervisory recruitment (that means at every stage that officer has to be informed including video/recording of the interviews of the candidates that respond to the advt that the company does for labor again.

6 similar cases happened in my company (4 last week and 2 yesterday)

I have labor / I -140 approved in 2011 (PD 26NOV2008) and I filed my I-1485 in Jan 2012 and had received EAD in FEB 2012. I read somewhere that similar cases (to mine) have also had their I-140 revoked.

Another complexity is that my H1 is expiring end of this month and waiting for its extension based on approved I-140. Can the above situation affect my H1 approval process? I am very anxious to get some suggestions that can help me mitigate my risk.

FYI...My friend is going to file an appeal in some court as I know.

[vizcard]

Sorry, I made a mistake about the exact date, it should be August-29-2008 not August-28-2008

I really don't know if you are joking or not... but either way you are wrong

[shreyasai2004]

Hi,

Why it was showing like this in current visa bulliten.


http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulleti...

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: September 2013

This month's visa bulletin: August 2013

Archived visa bulletins: July 2013 and before

[Maksimus]

It's fine now. Must have been a temporary browser cache issue

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

[willywonka]

Do you think there is any chance they will advance the cutoff date for Sep 2013 by 15-30 days if they think visas will be wasted ? Has that ever happened before?...where they advanced the dates after publishing an original cutoff date for a month ?

[vizcard]

Do you think there is any chance they will advance the cutoff date for Sep 2013 by 15-30 days if they think visas will be wasted ? Has that ever happened before?...where they advanced the dates after publishing an original cutoff date for a month ?

I dont think its ever happened in the last 5 yrs (I don't know about before that). That being said I don't see any visas getting wasted. There's a lot of demand especially with dates being moved to June. In fact there will be 3-5k ppl that are current but won't be approved.

[PLASTIC]

I see GC approvals from all service centers from Jan 2008 to June 2008 PDs with RD varying from Jan 2012. But there are people (including me) with RD/PD less then many approved cases this week. No RFE in many cases. Is there any official information how the I485 are processed.

[indiani]

I see GC approvals from all service centers from Jan 2008 to June 2008 PDs with RD varying from Jan 2012. But there are people (including me) with RD/PD less then many approved cases this week. No RFE in many cases. Is there any official information how the I485 are processed.

NO pattern

[gcq]

rka - sorry to hear this. unfortunately the officer is within his rights / discretion - so all the candidates and employers can and should do is cooperate and have it approved with concurrence from the agency.

However I do think H1 approval shouldn't be an issue because the candidates can say that 140 was approved and revoked and the revocation is under review. so there is some ground there for H1 to be approved without problems. But definitely need lawyer on this one.

DOL officer has a right to do a supervisory recruitment during the labor certification process. However picking up that case after it has been approved and I-140 has been approved is not right.

OP,

Is your company in some sort of trouble with USCIS/DOL ? That is the only reason I think they would go back and look at already approved cases.

[qesehmk]

gcq - I agree - it is not right. In fact this can be challenged in courts if the applicant wants to go to the courts and fight with USCIS. However, USCIS DOS are all government agencies and government retains the right to revoke all kinds of things. I-140 is a small thing - even GC as well as citizenship can be revoked. Unfortunate ... but true.

DOL officer has a right to do a supervisory recruitment during the labor certification process. However picking up that case after it has been approved and I-140 has been approved is not right.

[indiani]

gcq - I agree - it is not right. In fact this can be challenged in courts if the applicant wants to go to the courts and fight with USCIS. However, USCIS DOS are all government agencies and government retains the right to revoke all kinds of things. I-140 is a small thing - even GC as well as citizenship can be revoked. Unfortunate ... but true.

Q,

I would disagree with you partially.

There are instances where immigrants have won cases when the govt agencies didn't follow the law and the govt can argue and make their case but certainly if they act in a rather meaningless and nonsensical way and the case can be made we ( immigrants) can win.

Unfortunately there are few instances where practically it has happened.
GC can be revoked only when there is fraud. while its easy to delay a case and investigate before approval, after its approved there needs to be clear evidence of fraud or other reason to revoke something. especially after GC or citizenship are approved.

while your knowledge perhaps might be lot more than I do, I like to see nay actual cases of GC/ citizenship revoked without a good reason

[qesehmk]

Indiani yes indeed the case can be won. I didn't mean to say it is a foregone conclusion.
Q,

I would disagree with you partially.

There are instances where immigrants have won cases when the govt agencies didn't follow the law and the govt can argue and make their case but certainly if they act in a rather meaningless and nonsensical way and the case can be made we ( immigrants) can win.

Unfortunately there are few instances where practically it has happened.
GC can be revoked only when there is fraud. while its easy to delay a case and investigate before approval, after its approved there needs to be clear evidence of fraud or other reason to revoke something. especially after GC or citizenship are approved.

while your knowledge perhaps might be lot more than I do, I like to see nay actual cases of GC/ citizenship revoked without a good reason

[amulchandra]

gcq - I agree - it is not right. In fact this can be challenged in courts if the applicant wants to go to the courts and fight with USCIS. However, USCIS DOS are all government agencies and government retains the right to revoke all kinds of things. I-140 is a small thing - even GC as well as citizenship can be revoked. Unfortunate ... but true.

As per PERM rules employer is required to preserve all the PERM documents for 5 years which means they can come back and review them anytime I think.That could be the case here.

[helooo]

Hello Gurus
I have a concern arising out of my friend's case just yesterday.
His I-140 that was approved earlier this year was revoked as some officer 'reviewing or working' his labor application decided to have the supervisory recruitment (that means at every stage that officer has to be informed including video/recording of the interviews of the candidates that respond to the advt that the company does for labor again.

6 similar cases happened in my company (4 last week and 2 yesterday)

I have labor / I -140 approved in 2011 (PD 26NOV2008) and I filed my I-1485 in Jan 2012 and had received EAD in FEB 2012. I read somewhere that similar cases (to mine) have also had their I-140 revoked.

Another complexity is that my H1 is expiring end of this month and waiting for its extension based on approved I-140. Can the above situation affect my H1 approval process? I am very anxious to get some suggestions that can help me mitigate my risk.

FYI...My friend is going to file an appeal in some court as I know.

Nothing to worry if your company hasn't done anything wrong.These things only happen when company has some issues with USCIS/DOL.All the best.

[qesehmk]

Everybody - pl bear with the site as the site is having technical issues. Hopefully will be resolved in 8 hours or less. Thanks for your patience. -

Alright -- this is resolved now. Thanks again!

[yank]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6062.html

[tackle]

Btw, in case this hasn't been posted yet, Oct 2013 VB is out: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6062.html . EB2-I dates remain unchanged (15JUN08).

[natvyas]

EB2 China has moved ahead by a month. Wondering if the CO is using the monthly quota to move the dates forward.

[qesehmk]

As expected Oct 2013 bulletin doesn't show retrogression. As the Sep and Oct data comes in the dates might retrogress. As of now i think the chances of retrogression in Nov are 50-50. It all depends on how well USCIS clears EB2I backlog through the dates that are current.

[pdmay2008]

As expected Oct 2013 bulletin doesn't show retrogression. As the Sep and Oct data comes in the dates might retrogress. As of now i think the chances of retrogression in Nov are 50-50. It all depends on how well USCIS clears EB2I backlog through the dates that are current.

This is definitely good news for people like me waiting after being Current. This buys in more time to get approvals. Also this makes it no numbers get wasted if they can allocate the numbers ahead of time.

[qesehmk]

Also this makes it no numbers get wasted...That's a good point pdmay. I tend to believe (although I can't prove it) that DOS/USCIS continue to approve cases using prior year number into Oct. Thus it gives me some comfort to see dates not moving back - which would mean - the visas are not going waste now. But as I said - I don't really have proof for my theory except that in prior years i have noticed very large october approvals.

[suninphx]

As expected Oct 2013 bulletin doesn't show retrogression..

Great news !!

[pseudonym]

Gurus, assuming that all FY 2013 visa numbers for EB2I are used up by September, how many visa numbers will be available for EB2I in October?

I am trying to assess my chances of being approved in October, in case I do not get approved in September.

PD: March 11, 2008. TSC.

[qesehmk]

Gurus, assuming that all FY 2013 visa numbers for EB2I are used up by September, how many visa numbers will be available for EB2I in October?

I am trying to assess my chances of being approved in October, in case I do not get approved in September.

PD: March 11, 2008. TSC.
EB2I will get approx. 1/12th of 28.2% of 7% of 140K. That's approx 230 visas.

[rferni]

Do any of the knowledgeable folks here believe there could be mechanisms in place that allow the assignment of 2013 visa numbers to pending cases while they physically get approved in Oct 2013?
i.e. is there any way the DOS Visa Bureau may be able to assign visa numbers to outstanding cases in Sep 2013 while they may not get approved/issued until October?

Just wondering if that's one of the possible reasons behind maintaining the same cutoff date for EB2I going into FY 2014...

Many thanks

[msdhoni]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_october2013.pdf

EB2 I - No Change.

[ThisSummer]

Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait.

[qesehmk]

Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait. Congratulations ThisSummer.

[gcq]

Gurus,

What do you think of the latest visa bulletin ? For Eb2-I and EB3-I no movement forward or backward. How do you explain that.
The only explanation I can come up is CO is on vacation, so asked his staff to copy paste from earlier bulletin :-)

[redsox2009]

Any reason why Trackitt data on Q forum is not being updated since Sep5th 2013?

[Jagan01]

Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait.

Congrats this summer....

[Jagan01]

Any reason why Trackitt data on Q forum is not being updated since Sep5th 2013?

Spec may be away on vacation... I guess that is the reason...

[Jagan01]

Any reason why Trackitt data on Q forum is not being updated since Sep5th 2013?

Here is what I pulled from trackitt....

Approvals in Sept as of today:
June 08 - 18
May 08 - 36
Apr 08 - 51
Mar 08 - 29
Feb 08 - 18
Jan 08 - 17
Dec 07 - 03
Nov 07 - 08
Oct 07 - 02
Sep 07 - 04
Aug 07 - 04
Pre Aug 07 - 38

Total Approvals - 228

[SeekingGC2013]

Hello All Gurus

By far this has been the most nerve wrecking waiting period in my life...my PD - 05/14/08 - Eb2 I - TSC with RD - 03/14/12.
I am guessing they are processing based on RD's order and thats why im getting delayed. I have no idea how long this wait is going to be. I hope it ends soon and wish the same for everyone who is on the same boat.

With VB showing dates being 15 Jun 08 for Oct as well - do i stand a good chance of getting my GC before end of October? Also what is the criteria in processing 485 applciations? i saw lot of approvals in TSC in May and June08.

please share some thoughts
thanks


Here is what I pulled from trackitt....

Approvals in Sept as of today:
June 08 - 18
May 08 - 36
Apr 08 - 51
Mar 08 - 29
Feb 08 - 18
Jan 08 - 17
Dec 07 - 03
Nov 07 - 08
Oct 07 - 02
Sep 07 - 04
Aug 07 - 04
Pre Aug 07 - 38

Total Approvals - 228

[Jagan01]

Hello All Gurus

By far this has been the most nerve wrecking waiting period in my life...my PD - 05/14/08 - Eb2 I - TSC with RD - 03/14/12.
I am guessing they are processing based on RD's order and thats why im getting delayed. I have no idea how long this wait is going to be. I hope it ends soon and wish the same for everyone who is on the same boat.

With VB showing dates being 15 Jun 08 for Oct as well - do i stand a good chance of getting my GC before end of October? Also what is the criteria in processing 485 applciations? i saw lot of approvals in TSC in May and June08.

please share some thoughts
thanks
I am not a guru but still will reply...

There have been discussions in the past on the topic of PD vs RD. It should be in the current thread or in thread of Aug approvals
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2178-All-Aug-2013-485-APPROVALS-amp-DISCUSSION-report-here-with-details

Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ...

Many supportive documentations as well... Please read through the posts to conclude for yourself...

General consensus according to me is:
1. People who haven't received RFE
2. PD
3. RD

However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

[SeekingGC2013]

Thanks for forwarding the thread.

I qualify under the 1) No RFE category.




I am not a guru but still will reply...

There have been discussions in the past on the topic of PD vs RD. It should be in the current thread or in thread of Aug approvals
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2178-All-Aug-2013-485-APPROVALS-amp-DISCUSSION-report-here-with-details

Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ...

Many supportive documentations as well... Please read through the posts to conclude for yourself...

General consensus according to me is:
1. People who haven't received RFE
2. PD
3. RD

However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

[RogerFederer]

I am not a guru but still will reply..

Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ..

General consensus according to me is:
1. People who haven't received RFE
2. PD
3. RD

However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

Jagan...I'm waiting on when you can feel that I will be greened.. remember you promised you will let me know as you predicted Indiani...:-)

Lol.. please say tomorrow :(..

Mine no rfe... apr.28 pd, ppl after my pd lot of em got grn..rd 19 jan 2012.. same as pedro.. he got 2nd day:(...mine waiting...

[Techsavvy1973]

Jagan...I'm waiting on when you can feel that I will be greened.. remember you promised you will let me know as you predicted Indiani...:-)

Lol.. please say tomorrow :(..

Mine no rfe... apr.28 pd, ppl after my pd lot of em got grn..rd 19 jan 2012.. same as pedro.. he got 2nd day:(...mine waiting...

@RogerFederer - Looks like we share the receipt date and the fate. am still waiting too...

@Gurus - Just wanted to check if anyone has done any analysis or estimates on how many GCs have been used up so far (in Aug/Sep) for EB2I? And how much are remaining? Looking at the pace of approvals, looks like there is a higher chance of GCs running out then getting wasted - is that correct?

Thanks for your thoughts in advance!!

-- (Patiently waiting) Techsavvy1973

[PLASTIC]

I am not a guru but still will reply...

There have been discussions in the past on the topic of PD vs RD. It should be in the current thread or in thread of Aug approvals
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2178-All-Aug-2013-485-APPROVALS-amp-DISCUSSION-report-here-with-details

Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ...

Many supportive documentations as well... Please read through the posts to conclude for yourself...

General consensus according to me is:
1. People who haven't received RFE
2. PD
3. RD

However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

I don't see any specific pattern followed, there are plenty of approvals which will disprove all the theory. I guess the "luck" should be first one. You can improve your luck with some triggers like SR etc. That is what i am seeing now.

[Jagan01]

Jagan...I'm waiting on when you can feel that I will be greened.. remember you promised you will let me know as you predicted Indiani...:-)

Lol.. please say tomorrow :(..

Mine no rfe... apr.28 pd, ppl after my pd lot of em got grn..rd 19 jan 2012.. same as pedro.. he got 2nd day:(...mine waiting...

Hey Rogerfederer,

If I knew when you would get GC then I would surely tell you. :)

It was just one coincidence about Indiani... I do not know when anyone is getting greened.

[Jagan01]

@RogerFederer - Looks like we share the receipt date and the fate. am still waiting too...

@Gurus - Just wanted to check if anyone has done any analysis or estimates on how many GCs have been used up so far (in Aug/Sep) for EB2I? And how much are remaining? Looking at the pace of approvals, looks like there is a higher chance of GCs running out then getting wasted - is that correct?

Thanks for your thoughts in advance!!

-- (Patiently waiting) Techsavvy1973

Yes the visas would most likely not get wasted. How soon they run out is difficult to say but most likely they wouldn't run out before the last week of Sept.

[RogerFederer]

Yes the visas would most likely not get wasted. How soon they run out is difficult to say but most likely they wouldn't run out before the last week of Sept.

Hmm so random it is .. waiting continues..hopefully tomorrow will be my day :)

[Bharmanandam]

My PD is FEB 2008; got an RFE responded back in July 24; no sign of movement in my file... God only knows when I would get it ...

My case is with Texas Service Center ... dependents also received an RFE responded back in Aug 24th ... Any prediction on movement greatly appreciated ....


thanks

[qesehmk]

Bharmanandam

Welcome to forum. It is difficult to make a prediction on individual cases.

Clearly your case has some unresolved issues. It might be worthwhile to take an infopass and/or approach your senator/congressman for help. I wish you the best.


My PD is FEB 2008; got an RFE responded back in July 24; no sign of movement in my file... God only knows when I would get it ...

My case is with Texas Service Center ... dependents also received an RFE responded back in Aug 24th ... Any prediction on movement greatly appreciated ....


thanks

[geterdone]

I have a feeling that he is staying away due to a comment that was made on this forum. I am not going into details. I may be wrong.


Spec may be away on vacation... I guess that is the reason...

[druvraj]

Today is the 7th processing day in Sept for those waiting for GC. Since this also the last month for this visa year I feel that once we reach 12th day of processing for Sept then we will definitely see approvals slowing down. I am getting nervous by the hr. God know whats in store for me.

[Still_Waiting]

Based on Trackitt, first time I-485 and EAD filers in August 2013 are now recieving their EAD cards. Some have recieved EAD cards with one year validity while others have two years of validity. Now there's rampant speculation that applicants who were granted a one-year EAD are more likely to recieve their GC before possible upcoming retrogression in the next month or two while those with a two-year EAD will have to wait until summer next year to get their GCs. Do any of you think that there's any possibility of that being the case.

A little further digging shows that someone with a PD of Dec 13, 2007 got a one year EAD while another with a Dec 19, 2007 PD got a two-year EAD. If the logic applies, then dates should retrogress back to somewhere between Dec 13 and Dec 19, 2007. Of course this whole argument is very simplistic because we simply don't have enough data points and I have no way of knowing if people with PDs before that date have a one or two year EAD.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1273265365/let-us-group-first-time-i-485-filing-aug-2013/page/59

[ontheedge]

Today is the 7th processing day in Sept for those waiting for GC. Since this also the last month for this visa year I feel that once we reach 12th day of processing for Sept then we will definitely see approvals slowing down.

Druvraj, why do you feel there will be a slowdown after the 12th day of processing? Based on past month's experience?

[ontheedge]

Some have recieved EAD cards with one year validity while others have two years of validity. Now there's rampant speculation that applicants who were granted a one-year EAD are more likely to recieve their GC before possible upcoming retrogression in the next month or two while those with a two-year EAD will have to wait until summer next year to get their GCs. Do any of you think that there's any possibility of that being the case.



This happened last year too, and I was one of the folks that received a one year EAD, yet no approval. The same theories were floated around at that time. And we know how far the dates went back.

[Bharmanandam]

Bharmanandam

Welcome to forum. It is difficult to make a prediction on individual cases.

Clearly your case has some unresolved issues. It might be worthwhile to take an infopass and/or approach your senator/congressman for help. I wish you the best.

.

My case is not yet passed the 60 day processing time. In couple of weeks from now it will pass, and I will give a call to Texas Service Center. Thank you very much for very valuable suggestions and prediction.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Diverging from the CPO-based discussion, are there any chances for the dates to move forward - 'coz of factors like PERM approval slowdown, EB-1/EB-2 WW usage - in the 2nd qtr or there isn't a chance that dates shall not move until last qtr. My date is end july '08.

[ragx08]

Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait.

Congratulations Summer!!!

[vizcard]

I dont quite understand how the dates stayed the same. To me it implies 1 or a combo of 4 things - all of which are a lil hard to believe.
1. CO doesn't have faith that USCIS will consume this FYs quota and is planning on carrying it over (which is technically illegal)
2. CO expects monthly demand of less than 230 for Oct - Again really hard to believe.
3. CO is applying QSP early in the quarter - again a risky call.
4. CO simply screwed up on the VB dates

There has to be some internal retrogression mechanism. I really can't see too many approvals happening beyond Week 1 in Oct unless something goofy is going on (over and above this).

PS: Id love to see some updated DD

[Jagan01]

Diverging from the CPO-based discussion, are there any chances for the dates to move forward - 'coz of factors like PERM approval slowdown, EB-1/EB-2 WW usage - in the 2nd qtr or there isn't a chance that dates shall not move until last qtr. My date is end july '08.

Dates wont move ahead. The only way they can move ahead is if the CO applies QSP (Quaterly Spillover). That was done once in the past (2011) and it was a fiasco.

[Jagan01]

I dont quite understand how the dates stayed the same. To me it implies 1 or a combo of 4 things - all of which are a lil hard to believe.
1. CO doesn't have faith that USCIS will consume this FYs quota and is planning on carrying it over (which is technically illegal)
2. CO expects monthly demand of less than 230 for Oct - Again really hard to believe.
3. CO is applying QSP early in the quarter - again a risky call.
4. CO simply screwed up on the VB dates

There has to be some internal retrogression mechanism. I really can't see too many approvals happening beyond Week 1 in Oct unless something goofy is going on (over and above this).

PS: Id love to see some updated DD

Dates stayed the same as the demand has not surfaced yet. The first time I-485 applicants (EB3 to EB2 porters post Aug 2007), would have been filing their applications and they would be reflected in the demand around Nov. Hence, the dates will retrogress in Dec 2013.

So according to the stats there will be very few applicants left before June 2008 in the demand data until Nov DD is published. CO might think that 230 is enough to handle them and in the worst case he will apply QSP.

I am sure that he will retrogress dates in Dec 2013 bulletin.

[qesehmk]

Viz - here is my theory.

In the past when CO moved dates back in Oct .... it meant his prior movement was aggressive. Aggressive movement is intended to ensure no visas are wasted. Come october he retrogressed to a level he knew doesn't require retrogression.

However - this time it looks like the movement was very very well calibrated. So there is no need for retrogression unless CO gets hold of new data that tells him that retrogression is required.

Such new data is not going to be available by mid sep. It will become available by mid of Oct or end of Oct. It can mean only one thing that the real chances of retrogression should be for Dec bulletin rather than Nov. That's why I kept Nov retro chances at 50-50.

I dont quite understand how the dates stayed the same. To me it implies 1 or a combo of 4 things - all of which are a lil hard to believe.
1. CO doesn't have faith that USCIS will consume this FYs quota and is planning on carrying it over (which is technically illegal)
2. CO expects monthly demand of less than 230 for Oct - Again really hard to believe.
3. CO is applying QSP early in the quarter - again a risky call.
4. CO simply screwed up on the VB dates

There has to be some internal retrogression mechanism. I really can't see too many approvals happening beyond Week 1 in Oct unless something goofy is going on (over and above this).

PS: Id love to see some updated DD

[vizcard]

Viz - here is my theory.

In the past when CO moved dates back in Oct .... it meant his prior movement was aggressive. Aggressive movement is intended to ensure no visas are wasted. Come october he retrogressed to a level he knew doesn't require retrogression.

However - this time it looks like the movement was very very well calibrated. So there is no need for retrogression unless CO gets hold of new data that tells him that retrogression is required.

Such new data is not going to be available by mid sep. It will become available by mid of Oct or end of Oct. It can mean only one thing that the real chances of retrogression should be for Dec bulletin rather than Nov. That's why I kept Nov retro chances at 50-50.

mathematically it still doesn't make sense even with known info. Demand up to June 15 (from June DD) is approx. 16.5K. This is known. Now even if you assume 2.5K (low balling) of the porting came in between Aug 1 and Sept 10... we are in the 19K range. By keeping dates steady it would imply that there is enough SOFAD to cover 19K known demand plus the rest of Sept.

[luckycub]

Gurus - Could you guys please predict where the cut off dates will be for EB2C in the FY2014? Thanks a lot!

[qesehmk]

mathematically it still doesn't make sense even with known info. Demand up to June 15 (from June DD) is approx. 16.5K. This is known. Now even if you assume 2.5K (low balling) of the porting came in between Aug 1 and Sept 10... we are in the 19K range. By keeping dates steady it would imply that there is enough SOFAD to cover 19K known demand plus the rest of Sept.
SOFAD is something that we always know really well after the fact. So until then it's all conjecture. 16 or 19K is the same thing and I would imagine he date movement had baked these things in. For CO to move date in Oct he either should've already known that he made an unsustainable movement in prior year just to make sure no wastage. So whatever that number was - 16-19K or something else - if CO calibrated it well then, then he can't move until new data shows that in October there is too much demand compared to supply. Since OCT bulletin is published in Sep he chose to not move dates at all for EB2I. But he did so for EB2C because of the new numbers that became available with new year.

p.s.- On another note - why would there be 2.5K porting in just one single month. I didn't understand that part.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Is there any reliable/guesstimated statistic on the average spillover EB-2 has received/has a probability of receiving for a FY? For the sake of discussion/clarity, assume the sample period to be from FY 2007 - 2013.