EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[indiani]

Gurus,

I am sending my I-485, Advance Parol and EAD application for myself, wife and daughter to Phoenix Lockbox by Fedex overnight on Jul 31st.
Do I need to make 3 separate envelopes for us, or we can put all in one big envelop?

Any last minute suggestions will be appreciated as well.

3 enevelopes so that they can check everything needed for each , you can use one main fedex envelope. even if you send everything together as long as they are separately sorted out, that's fine

[pdmay2008]

One of the trackitt user is reporting RFE issued on his case today. His PD May 27th 2008.

Here is the content from ggreener:

Just got a text from USCIS saying my 485 application was updated. I logged in and it says Request for Evidence was mailed to me on July 30th. My PD is May 27th 2008 - EB2I.

I've changed jobs on my EAD and moved states (From California to Texas). Updated the address change form and received correspondence from USCIS to this address. But I never filed for AC21 or GXXX (to remove lawyer from representing me?).

Would the letter come to me or the law firm that filed for my 485 (working for my previous employer).

[natvyas]

I was looking up Trackitt and found that EB2-ROW approvals for the month are only 20. This is the lowest for this FY on trackitt.

The number has consistently been dropping since April of this year.

Other than the reason that people haven't updated their cases, what could be the reason for such drop in numbers? On the point of not updating trackitt how come suddenly people have stopped updating. I don't understand.

[seattlet]

maybe the slow PERM processing is finally showing its results. Currently PERM is only approved until end of january PD. Normally it would have been till end of may PD by this time.
to me it translates into roughly 15 K EB2 ROW PERMS on hold compared to regular processing timeline (assuming eb2 ROW consumes 36 K visas each year)

Folks who had got their PERM approved till end of April PD, could have got 140 approved in 15 days, and filed 485 by third week of may. There is a good chance they would
have got 485 approved by mid august or end of august ( 3 months) . My opinion is that this slow PERM processing though may not help Eb2 I to move significantly, has atleast ensured EB2 ROW didnt have a cut off date and consume all spill overs.




I was looking up Trackitt and found that EB2-ROW approvals for the month are only 20. This is the lowest for this FY

The number has consistently been dropping since April of this year.

Other than the reason that people haven't updated their cases, what could be the reason for such drop in numbers? On the point of not updating trackitt how come suddenly people have stopped updating. I don't understand.

[Spectator]

I was looking up Trackitt and found that EB2-ROW approvals for the month are only 20. This is the lowest for this FY on trackitt.

The number has consistently been dropping since April of this year.

Other than the reason that people haven't updated their cases, what could be the reason for such drop in numbers? On the point of not updating trackitt how come suddenly people have stopped updating. I don't understand.natvyas,

You will find the numbers for each month in this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1373-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2013-vs-FY2012).

The number to date in July for EB2-ROW primary applicants is 36, including NIW.

That is made up of:

EB2 ----------- 20
EB2-NIW ------- 11
EB2 Indian CC -- 3
Removed -------- 2

Total --------- 36

The average for EB2 in a normal year is about 48 per month.

Numbers to date in FY2013

Oct ---- 68
Nov --- 122
Dec ---- 44
Jan ---- 89
Feb ---- 75
Mar ---- 65
Apr ---- 61
May ---- 56
Jun ---- 47
Jul ---- 36

Total - 663

[coolvibe]

erikbond101

It means final COD will be based on
I-485 pending+ porters + 15-20% extra margin

Assuming 18K SO
12K (I-485 number)+6K (porters) will take COD to some date in April 2008 and considering 3K (margin) will take COD to May 2008.




Lets cross fingers for April 2008 the realistic figure predicted by Matt

[Spectator]

maybe the slow PERM processing is finally showing its results. Currently PERM is only approved until end of january PD. Normally it would have been till end of may PD by this time.
to me it translates into roughly 15 K EB2 ROW PERMS on hold compared to regular processing timeline (assuming eb2 ROW consumes 36 K visas each year)

Folks who had got their PERM approved till end of April PD, could have got 140 approved in 15 days, and filed 485 by third week of may. There is a good chance they would
have got 485 approved by mid august or end of august ( 3 months) . My opinion is that this slow PERM processing though may not help Eb2 I to move significantly, has atleast ensured EB2 ROW didnt have a cut off date and consume all spill overs.seattlet,

I agree that the PERM processing slowdown will limit EB2-WW approvals to somewhere around their allocation - it could have been worse than that.

The slowdown in PERM is partly offset by slightly faster USCIS processing times for I-485 this year.

The bad news is that, if PERM processing times improve after sequestration ends, EB2-WW approvals in FY2014 are likely to be slightly higher than a normal year which will squeeze SOFAD in FY2014.

In may ways it is a choice between jam today, or jam tomorrow - the numbers will be the same eventually, all other factors being equal.

Of 186 EB2-ROW Trackitt I-485 primary cases currently pending, 169 have a PD of 2012 or earlier, so there are still plenty left even without considering 2013 PDs. Of those, 115 have been pending at least 165 days (the mean approval time).

Currently 26 cases have been approved with a 2013 PD, 17 of which are NIW that do not require a PERM certification.

[bvsamrat]

IMHO- It is unlikey that there would be 6K porters that would be added to demand in the shortest available time, it would take atleast 1-2 months. I guess CO would ignore that number and if indeed materializes then could always retrogress later internally- Hence 'come September'


erikbond101

It means final COD will be based on
I-485 pending+ porters + 15-20% extra margin

Assuming 18K SO
12K (I-485 number)+6K (porters) will take COD to some date in April 2008 and considering 3K (margin) will take COD to May 2008.




Lets cross fingers for April 2008 the realistic figure predicted by Matt

[natvyas]

Good luck !!! to all those who will be current starting tomorrow. Please keep us updated.

[seattlet]

Spec,
i agree with you. It is a choice of jam today or tomorrow for most folks. However for folks in PD 2007 it is a matter of getting GC this year or next (and because of PERM slowdown they might
be able to get it this year which would be a big difference to them). Similarly for first time filers in 2007 and early 2008 it might help them to get EAD this year vs next. That would also
make a big difference in their lives too. Agreed that dates would regrogress but this slowdown is preferable for EB2 I folks with 2007 and early 2008 PDs since without the slowdown EB2 I folks would have not got much this year and would have been waitin till May / Jun 2014 for any meaningful COD move.





seattlet,

I agree that the PERM processing slowdown will limit EB2-WW approvals to somewhere around their allocation - it could have been worse than that.

The slowdown in PERM is partly offset by slightly faster USCIS processing times for I-485 this year.

The bad news is that, if PERM processing times improve after sequestration ends, EB2-WW approvals in FY2014 are likely to be slightly higher than a normal year which will squeeze SOFAD in FY2014.

In may ways it is a choice between jam today, or jam tomorrow - the numbers will be the same eventually, all other factors being equal.

Of 186 EB2-ROW Trackitt I-485 primary cases currently pending, 169 have a PD of 2012 or earlier, so there are still plenty left even without considering 2013 PDs. Of those, 115 have been pending at least 165 days (the mean approval time).

Currently 26 cases have been approved with a 2013 PD, 17 of which are NIW that do not require a PERM certification.

[Spectator]

Spec,
i agree with you. It is a choice of jam today or tomorrow for most folks. However for folks in PD 2007 it is a matter of getting GC this year or next (and because of PERM slowdown they might
be able to get it this year which would be a big difference to them). Similarly for first time filers in 2007 and early 2008 it might help them to get EAD this year vs next. That would also
make a big difference in their lives too. Agreed that dates would regrogress but this slowdown is preferable for EB2 I folks with 2007 and early 2008 PDs since without the slowdown EB2 I folks would have not got much this year and would have been waitin till May / Jun 2014 for any meaningful COD move.seattlet,

Thanks for the reply.

I was talking about the bigger picture as you pointed out. Believe me, I am acutely aware of the difference a few thousand extra numbers can make to the COD movement this year.

I would be a "jam today" person as well under the circumstances and I wouldn't believe anyone who said otherwise.

Good luck with the upcoming September VB. I imagine you are sweating on it more than most if I read your PD correctly.

I look forward to a busy day tomorrow updating all the new approvals. I hope to see yours in September if you already have an I-485 pending.

[erikbond101]

if porting hits the lower range of expectations, together with the EB2ROW drops we are noticing in trackitt could help EB2I make a bigger jump. Another area where visa numbers are blocked is in EB2C's additional share of SO visas. if EB2C stalls where it is today even in next bulletin, EB2I will receive some more visas. That would possibly indicate, how spillovers are divided between retrogressed countries when cut off dates are different. My numbers have blocked EB2C with its share of additional SO, if I am not wrong Specs calculation also blocks it. Next bulletin may possibly be the first opportunity to understand DoS interpretation of SO rules in that regard.

There is a 3K difference(4K Vs. 7K) in porting assumptions+ 1-1.4 K blocking for EB2C is equivalent to support a 3+ months difference in calculation.

Spec: Thanks for updating the PERM data, it definitely helps in our early calculations for next fiscal.

Matt,
I do not think China will be receiving part of SO.

Here is example from FY 2009:
In FY 2009 SO were divided between India and China as per PD movement. India and China both had same PD of 8 Jan 05 in Sep 2009. China did not receive 7% of SO, they received only 242 visas out of 7545 SO. (3.2 %)

[seattlet]

Spec,
thanks. I also hope that things get moving again so that apr 2008 will be current this month so as to file 485. I see it has 30 to 50 % probability to go there.




seattlet,

Thanks for the reply.

I was talking about the bigger picture as you pointed out. Believe me, I am acutely aware of the difference a few thousand extra numbers can make to the COD movement this year.

I would be a "jam today" person as well under the circumstances and I wouldn't believe anyone who said otherwise.

Good luck with the upcoming September VB. I imagine you are sweating on it more than most if I read your PD correctly.

I look forward to a busy day tomorrow updating all the new approvals. I hope to see yours in September if you already have an I-485 pending.

[MATT2012]

Matt,
I do not think China will be receiving part of SO.

Here is example from FY 2009:
In FY 2009 SO were divided between India and China as per PD movement. India and China both had same PD of 8 Jan 05 in Sep 2009. China did not receive 7% of SO, they received only 242 visas out of 7545 SO. (3.2 %)

Erikbond,

When EB2 China and India share the same PD, the visas are allocated based on earliest PD. As EB2I have more cases, the % allocation to EB2I is higher. Also for FY2009 we don't have any data to analyze the date movements, as first inventory was published only towards end of FY2009. This fiscal year, EB2C and EB2I are both retrogressed countries. The literal interpretation of law is SOs can be allocated to retrogressed countries without the 7% consideration. In the current scenario, I have not found anything that stops allocation to EB2C, as both India and China are oversubscribed.

As the interpretation of the law is not 100% clear, I was little cautious in my calculation. You could see same level of conservativeness in my porting number calculation. We may know DoS interpretation in the next bulletin, based on EB2C's movement. Perhaps we may have to wait until Visa Statistics release sometime in next FY, to fully understand the interpretation.

I would love to see EB2I movement beyond my realistic calculation. I have fairly reasonable numbers to support a higher movement, though I don't put it out. I am sure majority of the individuals who calculate here, have spreadsheets full of different combinations. Being mentioned that, risks get much higher once we cross April 1st,2008. I hate to say this, but even at this late stage in this fiscal, EB1 consumption is a difficult call.

Even my internal best case scenario, will not come close to current EB2C cut off date.

Hope for the best.

Cheers!!

Matt

[Spectator]

Matt,
I do not think China will be receiving part of SO.

Here is example from FY 2009:
In FY 2009 SO were divided between India and China as per PD movement. India and China both had same PD of 8 Jan 05 in Sep 2009. China did not receive 7% of SO, they received only 242 visas out of 7545 SO. (3.2 %)erikbond101,

A slight correction. It is 7% of any Fall Down, not 7% of Spillover, since any Fall Across within EB2 does not increase the EB2 allocation.

It is true that EB2-C failed to receive the full 7% on that basis in FY2009, but the shortfall was only 89 visas (3,045 vs 3,134).

That is well within the error margin inherent in the visa allocation process.

In all other years, EB2-IC were sharing spillover and both Countries exceeded the 7% limit comfortably anyway.

To put it into perspective, EB2-IC combined has received more visas than spillover was available in every year from FY2009 onwards (5k in total). Last year it was more than 1.6k. EB3 has had to under consume for the numbers to stay within the overall EB allocation. In FY2009, the overall EB limit was exceeded by nearly 1k. I think that says something about the madhouse that the month where visas run out is. Clearly, DOS can not react quickly enough to impose internal retrogression.

At best, I think we can only say there is no definitive proof either way. One way or another, we shall find out his FY, unless EB2-I matches the EB2-C Cut Off Date.

[MATT2012]

Spec,

I have a question about Fall Across Vs Falldown.

Let us say where EB2WW(ROW+M+P) required more visas than their Quarterly allocation in quarters I & II, and the falldown from EB1 was used to issue those visas. Quarter III and in July there are spare visas within EB2WW, could that be transferred to EB2I as Fall Across.

Thanks,

Matt

[Spectator]

Spec,

I have a question about Fall Across Vs Falldown.

Let us say where EB2WW(ROW+M+P) required more visas than their Quarterly allocation in quarters I & II, and the falldown from EB1 was used to issue those visas. Quarter III and in July there are spare visas within EB2WW, could that be transferred to EB2I as Fall Across.

Thanks,

MattMatt,

Not sure how to answer your question.

I'm not entirely happy with the answer below because I'm not entirely sure I've understood your question fully - you might have to expand it a bit so that my feeble mind can understand better and attempt to answer it.


Rather than think of Fall Down and Fall Across (which have specific laws governing them), it is better to think of it as under use against the 27% of total EB usage allowed in each of the first 3 quarters (and it is complicated by that number changing part way through the year).

The reason I say that is that the normal spillover rules don't apply. It is use within the overall 27% that is important at that stage.

For instance, if EB3 was under using, then those numbers could be used to give EB2 (or any other Category) extra visas if necessary. That couldn't happen under spillover rules. Later in the year, clearly EB3 would have to over use to reach their allocation.

Similarly, if EB2 under used numbers, they could be be given to EB3 (or another Category) if those Categories suddenly had more demand.

Clearly, at some point (probably in Q4), the decision about releasing spillover has to be made, at which point the laws for Fall Down and Fall Across need to be observed.

The answer to your question, I think, is a qualified yes, but only if EB2-WW ultimately have spare visas to contribute and only when the decision to release spillover was made - the fact that they needed more earlier, for whatever reason, wouldn't be the deciding factor - a lack of continuing demand would be.

[Niksammy]

Would the current slowdown in PERM approvals have any significant impact on the time of EB2I retrogression in FY 2013? Instead of retrogressing dates from 1st Oct 2013, could CO decide to retrogress dates in Nov or Dec 2013 because of lack of demand due to slow PERM approvals. Any thoughts.

[MATT2012]

Matt,

Not sure how to answer your question.

I'm not entirely happy with the answer below because I'm not entirely sure I've understood your question fully - you might have to expand it a bit so that my feeble mind can understand better and attempt to answer it.


Rather than think of Fall Down and Fall Across (which have specific laws governing them), it is better to think of it as under use against the 27% of total EB usage allowed in each of the first 3 quarters (and it is complicated by that number changing part way through the year).

The reason I say that is that the normal spillover rules don't apply. It is use within the overall 27% that is important at that stage.

For instance, if EB3 was under using, then those numbers could be used to give EB2 (or any other Category) extra visas if necessary. That couldn't happen under spillover rules. Later in the year, clearly EB3 would have to over use to reach their allocation.

Similarly, if EB2 under used numbers, they could be be given to EB3 (or another Category) if those Categories suddenly had more demand.

Clearly, at some point (probably in Q4), the decision about releasing spillover has to be made, at which point the laws for Fall Down and Fall Across need to be observed.

The answer to your question, I think, is a qualified yes, but only if EB2-WW ultimately have spare visas to contribute and only when the decision to release spillover was made - the fact that they needed more earlier, for whatever reason, wouldn't be the deciding factor - a lack of continuing demand would be.

Thanks Spec, your answer helped me. To summarize- within the 27% quarterly allocation ,visa can be allocated to any category(with some internal calculations of annual demand and date movements) and later in the fiscal year the balancing takes place, and from that point all the other spillover rules apply.

[MATT2012]

Would the current slowdown in PERM approvals have any significant impact on the time of EB2I retrogression in FY 2013? Instead of retrogressing dates from 1st Oct 2013, could CO decide to retrogress dates in Nov or Dec 2013 because of lack of demand due to slow PERM approvals. Any thoughts.

The current slowdown in PERM approvals may not have a direct effect on EB2I retrogression timing. The number of EB2I pending cases from this fiscal may be the main driving factor for the next retrogression. The new interfile cases will only show up only around November, at the time of December bulletin. if CO decides to use a calculative approach, the retrogression will start in October. I am hoping next retrogression may not be as severe as this fiscal.

[seattlet]

Just as Spec mentioned if the current slowdown in PERM is due to sequestration , then it should pick up speed from Sep 15th and go back to normal in 2 to 3 months. However if the slowdown worsens or continues, i predict EB2 WW will be under utilizing their allocated quarterly visas next year 1st quarter. and that might help EB2 I retrogress mildly or not retrogress at all. However
since CO does not do quarterly spillover, it might just be an arbitary decision on his part to retrogress Eb2 I even though EB2 WW does not utilize their quarterly allocation



The current slowdown in PERM approvals may not have a direct effect on EB2I retrogression timing. The number of EB2I pending cases from this fiscal may be the main driving factor for the next retrogression. The new interfile cases will only show up only around November, at the time of December bulletin. if CO decides to use a calculative approach, the retrogression will start in October. I am hoping next retrogression may not be as severe as this fiscal.

[desitiger]

Congrats to everyone who are about to receive their GC in coming days.

[Kanmani]

The current slowdown in PERM approvals may not have a direct effect on EB2I retrogression timing. The number of EB2I pending cases from this fiscal may be the main driving factor for the next retrogression. The new interfile cases will only show up only around November, at the time of December bulletin. if CO decides to use a calculative approach, the retrogression will start in October. I am hoping next retrogression may not be as severe as this fiscal.

Did you mean to say new I-485 cases (Missed the boat twice)?

[MATT2012]

Did you mean to say new I-485 cases (Missed the boat twice)?

Majority of the new I-485 filed between now and September will not show up first week of October, when the demand for November VB is published. Those case will show up after that and will be part of December VB. Also for the cases with existing I-485(EB3), with a new EB2 I-140 approved in September, may not show up in early October. I think we will see something like we witnessed this fiscal year, DD increasing marginally every month next fiscal due to pending cases from this fiscal.

[Niksammy]

The current slowdown in PERM approvals may not have a direct effect on EB2I retrogression timing. The number of EB2I pending cases from this fiscal may be the main driving factor for the next retrogression. The new interfile cases will only show up only around November, at the time of December bulletin. if CO decides to use a calculative approach, the retrogression will start in October. I am hoping next retrogression may not be as severe as this fiscal.

So the key for where EB2I dates end up (or retrogress) in Oct/Nov 2013 will NOT ONLY be the number of EB2I pending cases from this year, but also the priority date of those pending cases. If most of the pending cases from current fiscal year fall in 2007 and 2008 range, dates should not retrogress beyond Jan 2007 for atleast 1-2 months(Oct - Nov 2013).

Once new porting demand and demand from first time i-485 filers from Aug-Sept 2013 shows up by the time Dec VB releases (around 10th Nov), CO may retrogress dates further. Is this a fair assumption?

[Spectator]

So the key for where EB2I dates end up (or retrogress) in Oct/Nov 2013 will NOT ONLY be the number of EB2I pending cases from this year, but also the priority date of those pending cases. If most of the pending cases from current fiscal year fall in 2007 and 2008 range, dates should not retrogress beyond Jan 2007 for atleast 1-2 months(Oct - Nov 2013).

Once new porting demand and demand from first time i-485 filers from Aug-Sept 2013 shows up by the time Dec VB releases (around 10th Nov), CO may retrogress dates further. Is this a fair assumption?Niksammy,

My own personal thoughts.

I think pretty much everybody agrees that any new I-485 filed in August or September is not going to be approved this year and will not show in the Demand Data until adjudicated in several months time (in FY2014).

For me that is not the really the problem when thinking about when dates might retrogress in FY2014.

I think most people also agree that CO can not set a COD for September to use up the remaining visas that assumes all preadjudicated I-485 cases will be approved. Therefore there will be an element of contingency built into the date set.

That means that when the visas run out for this FY, there will almost certainly be people left behind who are Current and preadjudicated but for whom a visa was not available.

All those people will be counted as Demand going into FY2014.

Looking at past USCIS October Inventories, that number appears to have been about 2k, of which most should have already been in the Demand. I admit that is rather imprecise, but CO should have the means to make a reasonable estimate ahead of time.

Without releasing spillover, EB2-I quarterly allocation from October 1, 2013 is only 757 visas for each of the first three quarters.

For me at least, when retrogression starts and how much it will be initially, is driven more by the numbers left behind (or the estimate CO makes of that number) and the PD breakdown of those cases. New I-485 cases submitted late in FY2013 are a secondary consideration and those number will be added to the demand at a later date as they are adjudicated.

If all the queued up porting cases get approved in FY2013, than the retrogression might not initially be as severe as last year.

TBH, I can't make my mind up about what will actually happen.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Guys plz share approvals at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2178-All-Aug-2013-485-APPROVALS-report-here-with-details?p=38092#post38092

[Spectator]

Please keep discussions in the appropriate threads.

I'm going to start deleting posts rather than moving them if people don't do so.

[qesehmk]

Yes ... everybody pl. cooperate keeping discussions in appropriate threads only. Please respect moderators' time and effort.

Thank you all in advance for doing so.

[qesehmk]

Guys ... our hoster hostmonster is having issues with their servers. So this site is going up and down throughout the day. We have no control over it other than jsut waiting for hostmonster to recover.

AC - it was in the same company. No AC21 was required.

[helooo]

Hi Gurus
Following user on trackit got email regarding his EB2I PD June 2008 case,that card has been ordered.Does it mean the PD next month can move rapidly??

http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1254451731/sept-2013-visa-bulletin-prediction-eb2i/page/23

[Spectator]

Guys ... our hoster hostmonster is having issues with their servers. So this site is going up and down throughout the day. We have no control over it other than jsut waiting for hostmonster to recover.Q,

Thanks for letting everybody know.

I was wondering whether it was just me!

[qesehmk]

USCIS botches things once a while. I wouldn't consider this norm even if it is true. It is also possible that this is his EAD card. I didn't catch in the thread if the user confirmed that this was GC.

As per whether dates will move to Jun 2008, it is certainly possible.

p.s. - As always - when I say date movement - I am really talking about backlog clearance. Dates as you know can move anywhere since USCIS / DOS do engage in jerky movements.

Hi Gurus
Following user on trackit got email regarding his EB2I PD June 2008 case,that card has been ordered.Does it mean the PD next month can move rapidly??

http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1254451731/sept-2013-visa-bulletin-prediction-eb2i/page/23

[pdmay2008]

Are we expectiving VB or DD this Friday?. Or Should we wait for Next Monday. I feel we have fair chances for Friday VB release. I wish every one good luck who are already current and waiting to be current based on upcoming bulletin.

[seahawks2012]

Guru's/Pandit's,

What is the (tentative) "prediction" for EB2I movement in the September VB? And/or summary of predicted movement?

[vizcard]

Guru's/Pandit's,

What is the (tentative) "prediction" for EB2I movement in the September VB? And/or summary of predicted movement?

Please go back a couple of pages. There's been s lot of discussion and estimation done already.

[indiasunil]

Hi,

I see predictions at one of the website as below..

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/07/september-2013-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

499

[erikbond101]

Do not copy it from crappy blogspot. Their prediction/assumption is worst out there. You should post your prediction/assumption if you want.

[axialtilt]

Do not copy it from crappy blogspot. Their prediction/assumption is worst out there. You should post your prediction/assumption if you want.

Do not call it crappy. I have been following that blog for a long time and I can tell that the person whoever maintains that blog does a lot of research and he/she has made really great effort in keeping the people up to date on GC issues.

It is easy to trash someone by calling it 'crappy'. Please think twice before you make such statements. It is a lot of genuine hardwork and not fair to call it 'trash' without any basis for your statement. Did you even follow what the predictions were for the last few months?? That blog's predictions were very close to the published PD date, and don't expect someone to post the exact PD as it is going to be. If someone knew what the future would be, then that person is definitely not a human. More important than the predictions there, the information on that blog is valuable.

That blog writer is not my relative nor my friend, but I had to make a point looking at how easy it is to just trash someone's hard work in one instant. Just because you find it crappy, do not make statements like that.

[erikbond101]

Well, lets agree to disagree...But that website is definitely crappy IMO...I have not found a single detailed analysis or number crunching but yes they have been providing prediction months after months without providing any base. We should only appreciate hard work that is genuine and again it may be hard work but definitely not genuine. I'm 95% sure he will be copying prediction from this website.
My objection is simple, provide numbers first, prediction later.

[infoseek]

Do not copy it from crappy blogspot. Their prediction/assumption is worst out there. You should post your prediction/assumption if you want.
I never saw this site before. Few things I liked about it ... Clear/neatly laid out prediction in VB format, links to explanation/analysis for few imp ones (EB2 India), Free & whoever is maintaining it is taking time to answer questions as well. I haven't yet had the chance to read through all the info there ... but they seem to be spot on for their AUG prediction (unless they changed it after it was out). Even if they are aggregating info from other websites /forums ... very nicely presented. Could not find anything crappy about it.

[qesehmk]

Generally I would agree that it takes a lot of time effort and commitment to maintain a website that provides predictions.

So the least we can do to respect that person's time and effort is to NOT copy ... rather simply provide a link saying here is a good site with some good info. This way his site gets some traffic. And then people will decide themselves if they like it or not.

I would also agree that there are many sites that have propped up. But it's a free country! So it's ok. I don't mind people copying our predictions as long as they mention our forum. But unfortunately I have rarely seen that happening.

[infoseek]

Generally I would agree that it takes a lot of time effort and commitment to maintain a website that provides predictions.

So the least we can do to respect that person's time and effort is to NOT copy ... rather simply provide a link saying here is a good site with some good info. This way his site gets some traffic. And then people will decide themselves if they like it or not.

I would also agree that there are many sites that have propped up. But it's a free country! So it's ok. I don't mind people copying our predictions as long as they mention our forum. But unfortunately I have rarely seen that happening.

Totally agree with you Q. The very nature of this info makes it very easy for others to simply lift the results of good analysis from sites like this and summarize it for their site. Unfortunately giving credit where its due will totally depend on the ethics of the person maintaining the site. There is really no good /logical way to conclude that the analysis has been copied from other sites. From an analysis standpoint this thread definitely provides the best there is. The customer base for sites like the stated blog, I guess, is different in that they would just like to know the prediction (preferably just one... not much about different analysis/opinions) ... :)

[indiasunil]

Do not copy it from crappy blogspot. Their prediction/assumption is worst out there. You should post your prediction/assumption if you want.


Every one follows some forums, some of them only do predictions with available data.. I only follow, never predicted or commented on others..
I have been following this forum from last 4 years. I just posted whatever I saw, please trash it if don't like..

Q - Please remove it, no harsh feelings..Thank You.

[qesehmk]

No worries Sunil. Both you and Eric are entitled to your own opinions. I really don't have much to add.

Every one follows some forums, some of them only do predictions with available data.. I only follow, never predicted or commented on others..
I have been following this forum from last 4 years. I just posted whatever I saw, please trash it if don't like..

Q - Please remove it, no harsh feelings..Thank You.

[wheeler234]

Any thoughts when the September DD comes out?

[qesehmk]

Any thoughts when the September DD comes out?
Generally between 2nd friday of month and 10th business day.

[natvyas]

Generally between 2nd friday of month and 10th business day.

Nishant2200 taught me this trick. I went and looked up the September VB for the last 3 years and found out that it is posted on the 6th or 7th working day of the month. Hence I would expect it to be published on Thursday or Friday.

That being said, I dont think the DD will be published this month as it will have little significance.

[qesehmk]

Nishant2200 taught me this trick. I went and looked up the September VB for the last 3 years and found out that it is posted on the 6th or 7th working day of the month. Hence I would expect it to be published on Thursday or Friday.

That being said, I dont think the DD will be published this month as it will have little significance.
CO might still publish it but still it is of little use.

As it is DD is something I rarely used. It to me is like the classic definition of statistics. It can show the important parts while hiding the critical ones ;)

[kd2008]

New I-485 Pending Inventory as of 7/17/2013. I don't if this was discussed already.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2007-17-2013.pdf

I don't know how useful this is.

EB2-ROW drops to 7.7K in this compared to 10.2K in April 2013.

EB3-ROW goes up from 7.3K to 9.9K. But hardly any additions post-Aug-2007

[qesehmk]

Thanks KD ...

Here are my cursory observations:

1. EB1 overall backlog is 10K which is about 1/4th of annual demand and is a healthy backlog. So EB1 isn't going to give us huge surprise at the end of this FY in terms of how many visas it used.
2. EB2ROW shows 6.7K backlog which is less than I would've liked to see. So I would expect EB2ROW to use more visas than our original prediction. Our original was that they will utilize or exceed their quota ... so this doesn't bode well. (but remember there is 18K FB visas too ... so it may not turn out as bad).
3. EB4 and EB5 do not show significant inventory .... so I would expect them to not present any surprise relative to our forecast. So again .. no news is good news here.
4. EB2C shows 2.8K for 2009 which is a bad news for them because they are so near and yet so far from being current as a category.
5. EB2I shows an average of 12.5K demand in 2008 and 2009 which is a very very good news for them because it is certainly less than prior years when the demand was 16-18K. This impact wait times for EB2I positively. But as all of you are aware the wait times is a function of so many moving parts. So can't say by how much.

So that's the gist of 485 data IMHO. Please feel free to criticize or ask questions!

New I-485 Pending Inventory as of 7/17/2013. I don't if this was discussed already.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2007-17-2013.pdf

I don't know how useful this is.

EB2-ROW drops to 7.7K in this compared to 10.2K in April 2013.

EB3-ROW goes up from 7.3K to 9.9K. But hardly any additions post-Aug-2007

[yank]

Q,

Is it going to change your prediction for Sep bulletin? Please reply.

Thanks KD ...

Here are my cursory observations:

1. EB1 overall backlog is 10K which is about 1/4th of annual demand and is a healthy backlog. So EB1 isn't going to give us huge surprise at the end of this FY in terms of how many visas it used.
2. EB2ROW shows 6.7K backlog which is less than I would've liked to see. So I would expect EB2ROW to use more visas than our original prediction. Our original was that they will utilize or exceed their quota ... so this doesn't bode well. (but remember there is 18K FB visas too ... so it may not turn out as bad).
3. EB4 and EB5 do not show significant inventory .... so I would expect them to not present any surprise relative to our forecast. So again .. no news is good news here.
4. EB2C shows 2.8K for 2009 which is a bad news for them because they are so near and yet so far from being current as a category.
5. EB2I shows an average of 12.5K demand in 2008 and 2009 which is a very very good news for them because it is certainly less than prior years when the demand was 16-18K. This impact wait times for EB2I positively. But as all of you are aware the wait times is a function of so many moving parts. So can't say by how much.

So that's the gist of 485 data IMHO. Please feel free to criticize or ask questions!

[qesehmk]

Nothing material that would force me to rethink anything. So I would keep the prediction same.
Q,

Is it going to change your prediction for Sep bulletin? Please reply.

[wolverine82]

Q,Spec,Matt and other gurus...do you think this I-485 inventory will change your predictions..

Q,

Is it going to change your prediction for Sep bulletin? Please reply.

[Spectator]

Q,Spec,Matt and other gurus...do you think this I-485 inventory will change your predictions..wolverine,

The USCIS Inventory Data doesn't really add to the information about EB1, EB2-WW or porting numbers, so I have no reason to change my thoughts either.

[vizcard]

as usual some of the numbers are off. Comparing the June DD vs this Inventory, there is more demand than inventory for 2008 and 2009 for EB2I.

Year --- Inv ----- Demand
2008 - 16125 ----17725
2009 - 14146 ----16550

Given that dates were retrogressed even the fact that the Demand data is one month older than the Inventory shouldn't matter.

[natvyas]

Q, Spec, Matt, Viz

We knew the EB2 ROW started the year with about 8K in backlog which was going to be added to this years demand. However on comparing the Inventory report starting from Oct 2012, I see that the report has on an average carried 5K in backlog for 2012. This tells me that 5K of the backlog will not impact this year but carry forward to next year.

Thoughts?

Regards
Nat

[qesehmk]

That's what happens in every category .... about 1/3rd of annual demand for all current categories can't get approved because of the processing time of 4 months.

If the processing time was 1 month then you would only see 1/12th of annual demand in backlog.

Does that make sense and does that answer your question?

Q, Spec, Matt, Viz

We knew the EB2 ROW started the year with about 8K in backlog which was going to be added to this years demand. However on comparing the Inventory report starting from Oct 2012, I see that the report has on an average carried 5K in backlog for 2012. This tells me that 5K of the backlog will not impact this year but carry forward to next year.

Thoughts?

Regards
Nat

[justvisiting]

as usual some of the numbers are off. Comparing the June DD vs this Inventory, there is more demand than inventory for 2008 and 2009 for EB2I.

Year --- Inv ----- Demand
2008 - 16125 ----17725
2009 - 14146 ----16550

Given that dates were retrogressed even the fact that the Demand data is one month older than the Inventory shouldn't matter.

Doesn't demand data also include consular processing?

[vizcard]

Doesn't demand data also include consular processing?

perhaps.. i'm not quite sure what that workflow is like. In CP they do not fully process an application until the dates are current ie they don't pre-adjudicate. Also, they actually use a visa directly as soon as the dates become current regardless of the result of the interview.

Maybe Kanmani, Q or Spec can provide a perspective here. I'm also sure we've had this conversation before :P

[Spectator]

perhaps.. i'm not quite sure what that workflow is like. In CP they do not fully process an application until the dates are current ie they don't pre-adjudicate. Also, they actually use a visa directly as soon as the dates become current regardless of the result of the interview.

Maybe Kanmani, Q or Spec can provide a perspective here. I'm also sure we've had this conversation before :PDocumentarily Qualified CP cases are included in the Demand Data.

We had a good discussion about the definition of Documentarily Qualified, although I haven't revisited it and this is from memory.

I think we agreed that was when what used to be called Packet 4 has been submitted and accepted by NVC. That is quite late in the CP process. When the date becomes Current, a visa is allocated for the case at the Consulate and NVC/Consulate advise the applicant of the interview date.

Kanmani probably has a better grip on the fine detail.

For EB2-I the numbers of CP cases are extremely small. Last year, FY2012, when EB2-I received 19,726 approvals, only 140 were Consular Processed (0.71%). In FY2011 the numbers were 23,997 and 133 (0.51%) respectively.

For EB2-I calculation purposes, you can probably ignore the CP component.

[Spectator]

as usual some of the numbers are off. Comparing the June DD vs this Inventory, there is more demand than inventory for 2008 and 2009 for EB2I.

Year --- Inv ----- Demand
2008 - 16125 ----17725
2009 - 14146 ----16550

Given that dates were retrogressed even the fact that the Demand data is one month older than the Inventory shouldn't matter.The nearest DD to the Inventory Date of July 17, 2013 would be the last one published as of June 7, 2013.

The comparison then was

Year --- Inv ----- Demand
2008 - 16,125 ----16,150
2009 - 14,146 ----13,850

The agreement isn't to bad IMO.

[natvyas]

That's what happens in every category .... about 1/3rd of annual demand for all current categories can't get approved because of the processing time of 4 months.

If the processing time was 1 month then you would only see 1/12th of annual demand in backlog.

Does that make sense and does that answer your question?

Q

I think the FA from EB2ROW depends on 3 parameters:

1) Rate of processing of applications
2) Demand
3) Supply

We know that the supply is more compared to last year owing to the visa from FB.
The inventory data tells me that the rate of processing is the similar to last year assuming the demand is similar.

Now on the subject of demand, I think we know in the past several years EB2ROW demand has stayed consistent.

Hence the conclusion I draw is that based on the fact that the supply is more and other parameters are similar, the FA should be more.

Comments?

Regards
Nat

[qesehmk]

Natvyas your thought about overall EB2ROW FA is correct but i wouldn't link this 485 data point to the overall forecast the way you have done it.

I would tend to look at my own forecast and say is there anything in the 485 data that causes me to change my thinking?

In this particulra case as I said - EB2ROW backlog is less than what I would've liked to see implying faster approvals. That in turn could mean more demand in EB2ROW. So that's why I thought i was a slight bad news.

Q

I think the FA from EB2ROW depends on 3 parameters:

1) Rate of processing of applications
2) Demand
3) Supply

We know that the supply is more compared to last year owing to the visa from FB.
The inventory data tells me that the rate of processing is the similar to last year assuming the demand is similar.

Now on the subject of demand, I think we know in the past several years EB2ROW demand has stayed consistent.

Hence the conclusion I draw is that based on the fact that the supply is more and other parameters are similar, the FA should be more.

Comments?

Regards
Nat

[Spectator]

Q

I think the FA from EB2ROW depends on 3 parameters:

1) Rate of processing of applications
2) Demand
3) Supply

We know that the supply is more compared to last year owing to the visa from FB.
The inventory data tells me that the rate of processing is the similar to last year assuming the demand is similar.

Now on the subject of demand, I think we know in the past several years EB2ROW demand has stayed consistent.

Hence the conclusion I draw is that based on the fact that the supply is more and other parameters are similar, the FA should be more.

Comments?

Regards
NatNat,

What you say would have been true in a normal year.

But last year, EB2-I were over-allocated visas, which caused EB2-WW to retrogress.

So this year, demand is (normal demand + demand from retrogressed months).

The general consensus is that the increased allocation to EB2-WW including FB visas will balance the actual demand this year, so that EB2-WW will give little or no Fall Across this FY.

[uscisnightmare]

Gurus ,

Any idea where eb2i would be in October 2014 ?

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Digressing from the topic under discussion, will we 've a '2014 Predictions' page going forward?

[willywonka]

Yes we will but sadly we will not have predictions from Q.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2155-Why-I-(i-e-Q)-am-Going-to-Stop-Forecasting-on-Qesehmk-org-From-Oct-2013-Onwards

[qesehmk]

Thanks willywonka. I am sure there will be predictions from others. I will contribute analysis but refrain from predicting.
As it is today Spec Matt Viz Indiani are already providing predictions not to mention Nishant Teddy Veni who occasionally chip in.

Digressing from the topic under discussion, will we 've a '2014 Predictions' page going forward?

[Spectator]

Not sure where to put this, but i will move it eventually.

We often hear what people think about their attorney.

I came across this (http://immigrationatty.tumblr.com/) which shows how Immigration attorneys feel about their job and clients sometimes.

The feelings are expressed as animated gifs.

Not all are applicable, but some are hilarious nonetheless. It's worth looking through all the pages.

I hope you enjoy.

[indiani]

Not sure where to put this, but i will move it eventually.

We often hear what people think about their attorney.

I came across this (http://immigrationatty.tumblr.com/) which shows how Immigration attorneys feel about their job and clients sometimes.

The feelings are expressed as animated gifs.

Not all are applicable, but some are hilarious nonetheless. It's worth looking through all the pages.

I hope you enjoy.

very entertaining !

[IJune05]

I can so clearly see my pinhead attorney in these gifs
:)


Not sure where to put this, but i will move it eventually.

We often hear what people think about their attorney.

I came across this (http://immigrationatty.tumblr.com/) which shows how Immigration attorneys feel about their job and clients sometimes.

The feelings are expressed as animated gifs.

Not all are applicable, but some are hilarious nonetheless. It's worth looking through all the pages.

I hope you enjoy.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I've displayed relative calm for all these years that I've been following the visa bulletins, but today, I'm unable to concentrate on work at all, and have been incessantly checking the VB page and this forum for updates. I really need to find something else to distract me. Spec's tumblr link certainly helped.

[desitiger]

I've displayed relative calm for all these years that I've been following the visa bulletins, but today, I'm unable to concentrate on work at all, and have been incessantly checking the VB page and this forum for updates. I really need to find something else to distract me. Spec's tumblr link certainly helped.

Lol. I am pretty much doing the same but let me assure you that it is not coming out today. I am slowly accepting the fact that it might not come out tomorrow also.

[qesehmk]

I have rarely seen VB come out on Monday especially prior to 10th business day. I think wednesday is a certainty. tomorrow is a possibility.

Just a guess .. no insider info really!
Lol. I am pretty much doing the same but let me assure you that it is not coming out today. I am slowly accepting the fact that it might not come out tomorrow also.

[rferni]

I have rarely seen VB come out on Monday especially prior to 10th business day

From the limited data I have, I see the following:
Sep 2012 bulletin was released on Mon, Aug 13, 2012
Oct 2012 bulletin was released on Mon, Sep 10, 2012
Mar 2013 bulletin was released on Mon, Feb 11, 2013
Apr 2013 bulletin was released on Mon, Mar 11, 2013

[wolverine82]

Lol. I am pretty much doing the same but let me assure you that it is not coming out today. I am slowly accepting the fact that it might not come out tomorrow also.

Me too even called up the 202 # where they said it will change from current bulletin to coming soon message if it is getting released today so looks it will not come out today also.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

Me too even called up the 202 # where they said it will change from current bulletin to coming soon message if it is getting released today so looks it will not come out today also.

So, does the delay augur well for the hopeful's or not?

[qesehmk]

Good god! So there is hope you say!
From the limited data I have, I see the following:
Sep 2012 bulletin was released on Mon, Aug 13, 2012
Oct 2012 bulletin was released on Mon, Sep 10, 2012
Mar 2013 bulletin was released on Mon, Feb 11, 2013
Apr 2013 bulletin was released on Mon, Mar 11, 2013

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

This question might 've been already answered or answered over & over but what was the consensus figure on how much spillover for EB-2 was expected for this FY & how much of it might be given for Sep '13?

[rferni]

Good god! So there is hope you say!

That I dont know ... I present the data, not the interpretation ... :)

The other thing I can tell historically is that when the release date has spilled into the third calendar week of the month, it has never gone past Monday - if it does this time, it would be a first.
Also, August 2013 bulletin was released on 07/09 at 5:50 PM EDT - so there's plenty of time left...

[vizcard]

That I dont know ... I present the data, not the interpretation ... :)

The other thing I can tell historically is that when the release date has spilled into the third calendar week of the month, it has never gone past Monday - if it does this time, it would be a first.
Also, August 2013 bulletin was released on 07/09 at 5:50 PM EDT - so there's plenty of time left...

With the exception of 2007, every other Sept VB was released before the 10th of August.

[rferni]

This doesn't match up with my data, but my data supports your main point. Recent Monday releases include last month's bulletin on July 8, 2013, Oct 2012 bulletin on Sep 10, 2012, August 2012 bulletin on July 9, 2012. Over 28 weekly bulletins since Apr 2002 have been released on Mondays, almost all before the 10th of the month. In fact, Monday's are the 2nd most common days for release of bulletin after Fridays (36).

My data shows the Sep 2012 bulletin as having been released on Thu, Aug 9th; Mar 2013 on Friday Feb 8th and Apr 2013 on Fri, Mar 8th.

Interesting ... clearly we are looking at different sources of data. I'll concede yours is probably better because mine was manual ... something i spent digging up online when i had many hours to spare on Friday. Thanks for corroborating my point with additional data.

[Jagan01]

With the exception of 2007, every other Sept VB was released before the 10th of August.

I disagree with that statement. June 2011 bulletin was released on May 11, 2011.

[Spectator]

Are we using different sources for this data? I used the date at the bottom of each visa bulletin.Pedro,

That is not 100% reliable.

For instance, the August 2013 VB has a date of July 8, 2013 which is probably when it was compiled, but the August 2013 VB was not released until July 9, 2013.

PS:- Someone on Trackitt made the fair point that the recent Embassy/Consulate closures may have pushed the date back, since they would not have been able to report Demand until they were re-opened.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Interesting ... clearly we are looking at different sources of data. I'll concede yours is probably better because mine was manual ... something i spent digging up online when i had many hours to spare on Friday. Thanks for corroborating my point with additional data.

No my data was wrong, as I quickly confirmed by looking up this thread to see when the August bulletin was released. It looks like what I have is the date the VB was prepared, which, in many cases, was not the date that it was released.

[rferni]

No my data was wrong, as I quickly confirmed by looking up this thread to see when the August bulletin was released. It looks like what I have is the date the VB was prepared, which, in many cases, was not the date that it was released.

Here's what I have based on the timing of when the DOS visa bulletin page was updated:

Bulletin for Month of-----Date Released-----Day of Week
Aug-13-----9-Jul-13----- Tue
Jul-13-----7-Jun-13-----Fri
Jun-13-----10-May-13-----Fri
May-13-----10-Apr-13-----Wed
Apr-13-----11-Mar-13-----Mon
Mar-13-----11-Feb-13-----Mon
Feb-13-----9-Jan-13-----Wed
Jan-13-----11-Dec-12-----Tue
Dec-12-----11/7/2012-----Wed
Nov-12-----10/12/2012-----Fri
Oct-12-----9/10/2012-----Mon
Sep-12-----8/13/2012-----Mon

[Pedro Gonzales]

Pedro,
That is not 100% reliable. For instance, the August 2013 VB has a date of July 8, 2013 which is probably when it was compiled, but the August 2013 VB was not released until July 9, 2013.
Exactly what I found out upon further research.

I disagree with that statement. June 2011 bulletin was released on May 11, 2011.
But that wouldn't be a September VB, now, would it?

[Pedro Gonzales]

Here's what I have based on the timing of when the DOS visa bulletin page was updated:

Bulletin for Month of-----Date Released-----Day of Week
Aug-13-----9-Jul-13----- Tue
Jul-13-----7-Jun-13-----Fri
Jun-13-----10-May-13-----Fri
May-13-----10-Apr-13-----Wed
Apr-13-----11-Mar-13-----Mon
Mar-13-----11-Feb-13-----Mon
Feb-13-----9-Jan-13-----Wed
Jan-13-----11-Dec-12-----Tue
Dec-12-----11/7/2012-----Wed
Nov-12-----10/12/2012-----Fri
Oct-12-----9/10/2012-----Mon
Sep-12-----8/13/2012-----Mon

On 3 of those days, they released the VB on the day they prepared it. On 7 they released it on the next business day. But the interesting ones were the September and November 2012 bulletins, where they released it 2 and 3 work days after they had prepared it. No holidays around that time, and neither VB had any surprising revelation, so not sure why they decided to hold off.

Assuming those two were the exceptions and that they release the VB within a day of preparation in the vast majority of the cases, the VBs were prepared on the 12th or 13th only 6 times out of 136 and never later than then. Also, those VBs that were prepared that late resulted in forward movement twice, retrogression twice and no movement twice. So directionally, i can't read anything into it.

Interestingly, 4 of the late releases centered around the events of summer 2007. These were the All-Current declaration of the July 2007 VB, the Unavailable of the August 2007, the movement back to Apr 2004 (where the EB2I PD had been prior to the fiasco) in September 2007 and the retrogression to Jan 2002 in December 2007.

[qesehmk]

it would be worthwhile to add your inference or guess - eitherway.

If this data is true - it looks like first full friday or first half of second full week is the range of VB.
Here's what I have based on the timing of when the DOS visa bulletin page was updated:

Bulletin for Month of-----Date Released-----Day of Week
Aug-13-----9-Jul-13----- Tue
Jul-13-----7-Jun-13-----Fri
Jun-13-----10-May-13-----Fri
May-13-----10-Apr-13-----Wed
Apr-13-----11-Mar-13-----Mon
Mar-13-----11-Feb-13-----Mon
Feb-13-----9-Jan-13-----Wed
Jan-13-----11-Dec-12-----Tue
Dec-12-----11/7/2012-----Wed
Nov-12-----10/12/2012-----Fri
Oct-12-----9/10/2012-----Mon
Sep-12-----8/13/2012-----Mon

[yank]

Q,Spec,

Would like to know if you are still optimistic about movement in Sep bulletin.

My guess is no movement to Feb 2008 at the max. No data or any info to support.

Eagerly waiting for Wednesday....

[inspired_p]

Hi guys,

I have good information that EB2-I will move beyond April 2008 as I came to know of a Consular Processing interview already scheduled for mid April 2008 priority date.

[MATT2012]

Hi guys,

I have good information that EB2-I will move beyond April 2008 as I came to know of a Consular Processing interview already scheduled for mid April 2008 priority date.

When is the CP interview and when was the interview scheduled?

[axialtilt]

Hi guys,

I have good information that EB2-I will move beyond April 2008 as I came to know of a Consular Processing interview already scheduled for mid April 2008 priority date.

That is good to know. I always wondered Consular Processing might have best hints about cutoff dates well in advance because Consulates are supposed to intimate the applicant around 60-90 days before when they think the PD may become current. That being said, EB-2 I is beyond any logical reasoning now. They themselves had to wait until the very last 60 days to determine and allocate the spillovers. I doubt the consulates are in a position to notify the candidates because CO's office itself may not have a clue until the very last moment. And then by the time it really becomes current, only a month is left before which next fiscal year starts and the dates have to be moved back.

Hope what you said is true, but tough to believe because I myself filed I-824 and had the case transferred to Consular Processing last year. I have a PD of March 18, 2008. I am back in US now and would like to take the route of I-485 now, but still, technically my address in India would have been notified by now if what you said applies to my case.

The case you are referring to, when is the interview scheduled for? Is that a continuation of something that was started last year? Or a fresh case that started this year?

[inspired_p]

That is good to know. I always wondered Consular Processing might have best hints about cutoff dates well in advance because Consulates are supposed to intimate the applicant around 60-90 days before when they think the PD may become current. That being said, EB-2 I is beyond any logical reasoning now. They themselves had to wait until the very last 60 days to determine and allocate the spillovers. I doubt the consulates are in a position to notify the candidates because CO's office itself may not have a clue until the very last moment. And then by the time it really becomes current, only a month is left before which next fiscal year starts and the dates have to be moved back.

Hope what you said is true, but tough to believe because I myself filed I-824 and had the case transferred to Consular Processing last year. I have a PD of March 18, 2008. I am back in US now and would like to take the route of I-485 now, but still, technically my address in India would have been notified by now if what you said applies to my case.

The case you are referring to, when is the interview scheduled for? Is that a continuation of something that was started last year? Or a fresh case that started this year?


As far as i know - it is fresh case , he never filed I-485 till now and he was intimated some 2 weeks back and interview is first or second week of September.

Thanks & Regards

[MATT2012]

As far as i know - it is fresh case , he never filed I-485 till now and he was intimated some 2 weeks back and interview is first or second week of September.

Thanks & Regards

Thanks for sharing. If the source of the information is true, it is indeed positive news for many waiting. By tomorrow this time we may have the VB, until that time anxiety continues..

[Spectator]

As far as i know - it is fresh case , he never filed I-485 till now and he was intimated some 2 weeks back and interview is first or second week of September.

Thanks & Regardsinspired_p,

Let me assure you, I don't doubt you. Is it possible the person has an earlier PD from a previous I-140?

I can't see how an interview date for a PD of mid April 2008 under EB2-I can possibly have been set up yet, since CO has not yet determined the Cut Off Dates.

The process is for the DOS to allocate the visas to Consulates for applicants who will be Current at the time the VB is published. Only then can the interview date be set up, because before then, the Consulate does not know that they have a visa available for that applicant.


http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf

1. HOW THE SYSTEM OPERATES:

At the beginning of each month, the Visa Office (VO) receives a report from each consular post listing totals of documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants in categories subject to numerical limitation. Cases are grouped by foreign state chargeability/preference/priority date.

No names are reported. During the first week of each month, this documentarily qualified demand is tabulated.

VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported to VO, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. The determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables, including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements. Once this is done, the cut-off dates are established and numbers are allocated to reported applicants in order of their priority dates, the oldest dates first.

.....

VO attempts to establish the cut-off dates for the following month on or about the 8th of each month. The dates are immediately transmitted to consular posts and Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS), and also published in the Visa Bulletin and online at the CA Web site (www.travel.state.gov). Visa allotments for use during that month are transmitted to consular posts.

CIS requests visa allotments for adjustment of status cases only when all other case processing has been completed.

Certainly, Packet 4 (or whatever it is called now) is sent to the applicant for completion and return ahead of when dates might become Current in the near future.

I'm a little confused.

[qesehmk]

Yes I don't see why not.

Hi guys,

I have good information that EB2-I will move beyond April 2008 as I came to know of a Consular Processing interview already scheduled for mid April 2008 priority date.

[wolverine82]

inspired_p,

Let me assure you, I don't doubt you. Is it possible the person has an earlier PD from a previous I-140?

I can't see how an interview date for a PD of mid April 2008 under EB2-I can possibly have been set up yet, since CO has not yet determined the Cut Off Dates.

The process is for the DOS to allocate the visas to Consulates for applicants who will be Current at the time the VB is published. Only then can the interview date be set up, because before then, the Consulate does not know that they have a visa available for that applicant.



Certainly, Packet 4 (or whatever it is called now) is sent to the applicant for completion and return ahead of when dates might become Current in the near future.

I'm a little confused.

Inspired... thanks for sharing the news and as everyone else we would love for this to happen but I had been tracking these kinds of cases and most of them had some previous PD's which the users forgot about and kind of raised false hopes... not saying this is the case but just wanted to double-check... so if it is possible can you confirm with the source if he/she never had any previous PD under any category that they forgot about and only have EB2 I PD with mid-april 2008.

[Pedro Gonzales]

There were folks that checked the Bombay consulate's website at some point early in the morning for an early release of the bulletin. Does anyone know what that site was and what time the updates usually came?

[Spectator]

There were folks that checked the Bombay consulate's website at some point early in the morning for an early release of the bulletin. Does anyone know what that site was and what time the updates usually came?I used to check the Mumbai site http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

I can't remember the last time they had the dates before the VB was published - it's a long time and never since they published the wrong dates.

PS Bombay?? Surely you don't use that name anymore? :)

[MATT2012]

I used to check the Mumbai site http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

I can't remember the last time they had the dates before the VB was published - it's a long time and never since they published the wrong dates.

PS Bombay?? Surely you don't use that name anymore? :)

Spec,

I check every month without fail, The last I noticed Mumbai consulate VB getting published before the official one was sometime in FY2012.

[inspired_p]

Inspired... thanks for sharing the news and as everyone else we would love for this to happen but I had been tracking these kinds of cases and most of them had some previous PD's which the users forgot about and kind of raised false hopes... not saying this is the case but just wanted to double-check... so if it is possible can you confirm with the source if he/she never had any previous PD under any category that they forgot about and only have EB2 I PD with mid-april 2008.

- That might be the case. I am not sure. Anyways we should know soon enough.

[indiani]

I still think that the COD might be March 1st 2013 and VB might be released around noon tomorrow

[bitches]

Whoot March 1st 2013!!!!!

[Spectator]

I still think that the COD might be March 1st 2013 and VB might be released around noon tomorrowindiani,

Slipping fingers I think!

Everyone would be ecstatic if it were March 1st 2013.

I hope we see the VB tomorrow, but I'm not banking on it.

I think it may be Wednesday, due to the closure of the Consulates around the world recently. I think it is possible some were not able to report their demand figures until today. They were closed August 4 through August 10. It is possible that they had reported Demand before closure, but they may have had other concerns as a priority at that time.

[gcpursuit]

I saw a post on Ron Gotcher's forum where he says the following to a forum member who has a may 2010 PD :

"It's hard to say with any degree of certainty, but highly likely that you will be current within the next nine months."

I know its just a guess from him but I dont think it is even remotely possible for 2010 PD to get current in FY2014. Thoughts?

[indiani]

indiani,

Slipping fingers I think!

Everyone would be ecstatic if it were March 1st 2013.

I hope we see the VB tomorrow, but I'm not banking on it.

I think it may be Wednesday, due to the closure of the Consulates around the world recently. I think it is possible some were not able to report their demand figures until today. They were closed August 4 through August 10. It is possible that they had reported Demand before closure, but they may have had other concerns as a priority at that time.

spec,
LOL..I didn't realize the mistake until you highlighted it in bold. But I guess most of you ( if not all ) know what I meant.
The pace of approvals and earlier predictions of CO and most of our earlier calculations made me arrive at a conclusion and it is the most conservative one.
Every single text message (including my newly found mate's) disappoints me ( as I am yearning for the CPO text ).

[indiani]

I saw a post on Ron Gotcher's forum where he says the following to a forum member who has a may 2010 PD :

"It's hard to say with any degree of certainty, but highly likely that you will be current within the next nine months."

I know its just a guess from him but I dont think it is even remotely possible for 2010 PD to get current in FY2014. Thoughts?

Ron might have pulled out the prediction from thin air, if there is any forum which is any close to scientific analysis its here ( especially spec), unfortunately the data is scant so the range is usually much larger

[nishant2200]

The last time they did this magic was for dec 2011 bulletin. I refreshed at midnite and voila. I woke up wife to make sure not imagining and then called up Teddy, forgetting his time zone. I woke up another friend then. I went crazy.


I used to check the Mumbai site http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

I can't remember the last time they had the dates before the VB was published - it's a long time and never since they published the wrong dates.

[Spectator]

Ron might have pulled out the prediction from thin air, if there is any forum which is any close to scientific analysis its here ( especially spec), unfortunately the data is scant so the range is usually much largerI think he pulled it from a rather darker place than thin air, if you know what I mean!

[Spectator]

I saw a post on Ron Gotcher's forum where he says the following to a forum member who has a may 2010 PD :

"It's hard to say with any degree of certainty, but highly likely that you will be current within the next nine months."

I know its just a guess from him but I dont think it is even remotely possible for 2010 PD to get current in FY2014. Thoughts?Not unless about 35k are available to EB2-I in FY2014.

I'll leave you to assess the possibility of that happening.

[Pundit Arjun]

I think he pulled it from a rather darker place than thin air, if you know what I mean!

Hahahahahahaha... Spec, you made me laugh a lot in the morning :). Something I have missed off late.

[qesehmk]

I don't know about others but I think delayed VB is a good sign.

The reason is - If there was no movement then there was no reason to delay. Just put it out there CO - would you? But if there is delay - probably CO is waiting to carefully measure the movement.

We will see. Good luck guys.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I don't know about others but I think delayed VB is a good sign.

The reason is - If there was no movement then there was no reason to delay. Just put it out there CO - would you? But if there is delay - probably CO is waiting to carefully measure the movement.

We will see. Good luck guys.

I agree with that assessment. He is trying to perfectly space the movement so that as few folks are left stranded as possible when the visas run out in late September. That however rules out a radical movement, which is probably a good thing, even though it probably delays my GC.

[desitiger]

I don't know about others but I think delayed VB is a good sign.

The reason is - If there was no movement then there was no reason to delay. Just put it out there CO - would you? But if there is delay - probably CO is waiting to carefully measure the movement.

We will see. Good luck guys.

I completely agree with you. More they delay it better it might be but it could very well be possible that the final numbers justify no movement. Well, we all are at the mercy if these idiots and have to wait for the information to come out.

[erikbond101]

I don't know about others but I think delayed VB is a good sign.

The reason is - If there was no movement then there was no reason to delay. Just put it out there CO - would you? But if there is delay - probably CO is waiting to carefully measure the movement.

We will see. Good luck guys.

I agree and I hope you are correct. Last time when VB was delayed in June 2011, COD for EB2I moved for 3 months and then in July 2011 VB, COD moved another 5 months.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I agree and I hope you are correct. Last time when VB was delayed in June 2011, COD for EB2I moved for 3 months and then in July 2011 VB, COD moved another 5 months.

I'd be okay if he split the difference this time and moved it forward by 4 months. May 1, 2008 would do very well for me.

[vizcard]

I'd be okay if he split the difference this time and moved it forward by 4 months. May 1, 2008 would do very well for me.

I doubt it would go to May 1 ... best case 4/22. :P

[seattlet]

As others have mentioned it might be due to consulates closing in many countries and that impacts CO getting good idea for FB category.
I dont believe consulates closing will affect Eb1,2,3 forecast since the % of cases impacted by them is low. Consulates were mostly closed
in countries where there is not much employment based demand.


I agree and I hope you are correct. Last time when VB was delayed in June 2011, COD for EB2I moved for 3 months and then in July 2011 VB, COD moved another 5 months.

[druvraj]

Was a bulletin (Dec 2011 I think) came out on on Nov 18 if my memory serves me right. Also later the date lesser congressional inquiries and less pressure for USICS officials to reply. Just my 2 cents. I agree with Q that delaying means CO or whoever is thinking of moving dates ahead. The suspense continues...

[Pedro Gonzales]

Dec 2011 VB was prepared on the 8th of Nov and the Jan 2012 VB was prepared on the 8th of December, so if either of those was released on the 18th, they were sitting on it for 10 full days. I don't know how they could justify that.

[GCKnowHow]

..... I don't know how they could justify that.
Sadly they don't have to.

[druvraj]

Dec 2011 VB was prepared on the 8th of Nov and the Jan 2012 VB was prepared on the 8th of December, so if either of those was released on the 18th, they were sitting on it for 10 full days. I don't know how they could justify that.

I am not too sure if it was released on Nov 18 but for argument purposes if it was then we should see the VB coming out on Aug 16 at the latest. I sincerely hope it is today or at the most tomorrow.

[eb2visa]

September bulletin is out

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6050.html

EB2I- 15JUN08

EMPLOYMENT-based:

SECOND:

India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be “otherwise unused” numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

THIRD:

The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.

It is unlikely that there will be any forward movement of most Employment-based cut-off dates during the next couple of months. In addition, a sudden surge in demand could require the retrogression of a cut-off date at any time. Such action would be required if it appears that such number use could impact visa availability under the FY-2014 annual limits.

[qesehmk]

Thanks eb2. Feel vindicated!!

Congratulations to all those current!!

Notice how the bulletin doesn't say EB2I dates will retrogress. I think this is what people need to understand that next year - if there is retrogression in eB2I - it will be artificial just like this year. Which means - that the dates next year too will move forward - ahead of where they are now.

Anyway .. congrats again. Surprisingly it seems EB2ROW probably has not fully utilized its quota which has resulted in more favorability.


September bulletin is out

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6050.html

EB2I- 15JUN08

[kd2008]

D. VISA AVAILABILITY

FAMILY-sponsored:

F2A: This category was made “Current” in an effort to generate new demand for the upcoming fiscal year. Information received during discussions with the National Visa Center and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services indicates that this action is already having the intended result. Therefore, it is likely that a cut-off will be imposed for October. This cut-off is unlikely to have any negative impact on those who have already initiated action on their case prior to the announcement of the October cut-off dates.

EMPLOYMENT-based:

SECOND:

India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be “otherwise unused” numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

THIRD:

The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.

It is unlikely that there will be any forward movement of most Employment-based cut-off dates during the next couple of months. In addition, a sudden surge in demand could require the retrogression of a cut-off date at any time. Such action would be required if it appears that such number use could impact visa availability under the FY-2014 annual limits.

[pdmay2008]

Thank God!!!

Congratulations to all those current. Happy to see my PD current again!!! Good luck every one.

[Jagan01]

D. VISA AVAILABILITY

FAMILY-sponsored:

F2A: This category was made “Current” in an effort to generate new demand for the upcoming fiscal year. Information received during discussions with the National Visa Center and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services indicates that this action is already having the intended result. Therefore, it is likely that a cut-off will be imposed for October. This cut-off is unlikely to have any negative impact on those who have already initiated action on their case prior to the announcement of the October cut-off dates.

EMPLOYMENT-based:

SECOND:

India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be “otherwise unused” numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

THIRD:

The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.

It is unlikely that there will be any forward movement of most Employment-based cut-off dates during the next couple of months. In addition, a sudden surge in demand could require the retrogression of a cut-off date at any time. Such action would be required if it appears that such number use could impact visa availability under the FY-2014 annual limits.


Heartiest congratulations to all those who are current.

[TeddyKoochu]

Great to see good movement for EB2 at 15-JUN-08, EB3 India also jumped to 22-SEP-03 this is spectacular.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6050.html

[MATT2012]

Congrats everybody who got current, let Sep bring good news to all who got current. Wishing you all Good luck!!

[helooo]

Congrats to all who are current.
Q,
What does following mean?


EMPLOYMENT-based:

SECOND:

India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be “otherwise unused” numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

[Spectator]

THIRD:

The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries. That's pretty much an admission that he did not move EB3-ROW either early enough, or far enough.

Even with Consular demand to 01JUL10, EB3-ROW/C/M may not use their allocation, hence the dramatic forward movement for EB3-I (although that is also aided by porting).

Absolutely criminal, although I can't help but feel pleased for EB3-I.

[kd2008]

So going into FY 2014, EB2-IC inventory will be at 33K + cases newly filed, upgraded, lingering etc.

[suninphx]

Congratulations to all who are current.

Q- great predictions..spot on. Hope mood on this forum stays upbeat for few months after many many months of conservative outlook.

[druvraj]

That's pretty much an admission that he did not move EB3-ROW either early enough, or far enough.

Even with Consular demand to 01JUL10, EB3-ROW/C/M may not use their allocation, hence the dramatic forward movement for EB3-I (although that is also aided by porting).

Absolutely criminal.

VB release EB2I cutof date June 08. Hopefully all current will be greened.

Druvraj

[druvraj]

Could anyone tell me when and how a SR is issued? Please educate me as whenever it was mentioned I could not completely grasp it.

[qesehmk]

It is basically saying that CO didn't expect EB2I to move to Jun 2008 but because EB1 and EB2ROW saw less than expected demand especially in last 2 months (this is where CO can play games to achieve desired outcome - forget my comment if you don't get it!).

Further he says that he expects this to generate significant EB2I demand (in other words he hints at retrogression but doesn't go on to say so explicitely).

So overall - this is vanilla statement - I don't read too much. As per your case missing by 1 day. I wouldn't worry too much. Depending on how well they clear EB2I backlog upto Jun 2008, you may very well get your GC prior to March 2014.


Congrats to all who are current.
Q,
What does following mean?


EMPLOYMENT-based:

SECOND:

India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be “otherwise unused” numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.


That's pretty much an admission that he did not move EB3-ROW either early enough, or far enough.

Even with Consular demand to 01JUL10, EB3-ROW/C/M may not use their allocation, hence the dramatic forward movement for EB3-I (although that is also aided by porting).

Absolutely criminal.
Spec - we wouldn't know that until the DHS annual report is published for 2013.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec one more point 2 years back EB3-I inventory used to be in the 60K plus range now its closer to 40K so besides approvals there has been a lot of porting to EB2 and even EB1 (Individuals going back for a year and coming back on EB1C) and abandonments I believe there has been some cleanup done to the inventory to remove individuals who are not in the category queue anymore.

[richie.rich]

Great Movement!!!

[geevikram]

Missed the boat by 18 days..

[geevikram]

Guys, I'm a little bit disappointed. Do we have enough data to project date progression next year? Thanks for all your help.

[venkat]

Missed the boat by 10 days...Life has to move on....:(



Missed the boat by 18 days..

[veni001]

Congratulations to all EB2-EB3 folks who will be current in September, good to see significant forward movement for EB3I.

[qesehmk]

Guys, I'm a little bit disappointed. Do we have enough data to project date progression next year? Thanks for all your help.
geevikram & others who missed it by a few days - I would say this. Most likely there won't be any forward movement until at least Mar 2014. Sorry to break your heart ... but that's how retrogressed categories work.

Jun 2014 is when you should expect any movement.

Retrogression wouldn't matter - since it is "artificial" to cater to technical rules.

If there is any forward movement at all between Oct and Dec - it will be temporary. So more than likely Jun 2014 onwards is when you should realistically expect a GC. just putting this out so that you can plan life/career around it. As you know my guess is as good as yours. So take it with a pinch of salt. Just trying to help here.

[ontheedge]

I dont feel so bad about the anxiety over these past few days now! Hope we all get our approvals soon too :)

[ontheedge]

Retrogression wouldn't matter - since it is "artificial" to cater to technical rules.



Q, do you expect retrogression immediately with the beginning of the new FY?

[Pedro Gonzales]

Congratulations to everyone who is current...especially you Pedro!

I see some light at the end of the tunnel...I am still waiting (late Oct 2008) but I am confident it will be current next year. Great to see EB3-I moving ahead rapidly and hopefully this will also reduce porting going forward.

This is an exciting day!

Thanks sports and everyone else. I have rounded up 2 of my colleagues and we're going out for a beer. I can get back to work tomorrow with all of this behind me. Of course, starting Sep 3rd, I'll be glued to my phone waiting for the SMS before they run out of visa numbers for the year.

[mstanfield]

Whoa !! super thrilled by the movement. The analysis on this forum is really exemplary. My PD is june 10th, 2008. How likely is that they will clear the backlog all the way through june 15th, 2008?

[qesehmk]

Thanks sports and everyone else. I have rounded up 2 of my colleagues and we're going out for a beer. I can get back to work tomorrow with all of this behind me. Of course, starting Sep 3rd, I'll be glued to my phone waiting for the SMS before they run out of visa numbers for the year.
Pedro - congrats!


Q, do you expect retrogression immediately with the beginning of the new FY?
With computers and all - I don't know why CO would ever need to retrogress. But apparently he still lives in stone age and can't see the demand ahead. As a result he can very well retrogress dates whenever he pleases.

If you are asking for my guess - my guess is he WILL retrogress Dec onwards. He will spare Oct and perhaps Nov too.

[PrinceVA]

This movement is beyond expectation. Is this repeatation of 2011/12 and will see PD moved back to 2005/6 ?? Dont wanna miss the boat again.. already did in 2007 and 2011. Waiting.

[Jagan01]

Thanks sports and everyone else. I have rounded up 2 of my colleagues and we're going out for a beer. I can get back to work tomorrow with all of this behind me. Of course, starting Sep 3rd, I'll be glued to my phone waiting for the SMS before they run out of visa numbers for the year.

Chinese would be confused....

EB2 China --> Aug08
EB3 China --> Jul10

The Chinese would be saying "Why the hell did I do my Masters". USA wants less literate Chinese people according to this bulletin.

[garihc27]

Gurus,

I am in a unique situation. Long story short, my PD is 05/2008 so my case is current. However my PERM is still to be approved. After years of audits and appeals, recently BALCA ruled in my favor. I am waiting on DOL now to approve PERM. Do you know if there is a timeline on DOL approval of BALCA cases?
I am hoping that the approval comes in the next month, so I could concurrent file (I-140 & I-485) before the Sept 30th date.

Thanks!

[venkat]

Thanks Sports..Lets hope for the best...



If there is no immediate retrogression, there is a chance your PD will be current in October.

[garihc27]

Gurus,

I am in a unique situation. Long story short, my PD is 05/2008 so my case is current. However my PERM is still to be approved. After years of audits and appeals, recently BALCA ruled in my favor. I am waiting on DOL now to approve PERM. Do you know if there is a timeline on DOL approval of BALCA cases?
I am hoping that the approval comes in the next month, so I could concurrent file (I-140 & I-485) before the Sept 30th date.

Thanks!

[infoseek]

Congratualtions to all! Hope it continues the pace.

[venkat]

Thanks Q...You mentioned that their might be a possible temporary movement next month...Does it mean I have a chance to get GC in October...?
I know the reality is going to be sometime after June 2014 but just wanted to make sure I understood correctly..



If there is any forward movement at all between Oct and Dec - it will be temporary. So more than likely Jun 2014 onwards is when you should realistically expect a GC. just putting this out so that you can plan life/career around it. As you know my guess is as good as yours. So take it with a pinch of salt. Just trying to help here.[/QUOTE]

[PrinceVA]

This movement is beyond expectation. Is this repeatation of 2011/12 and will see PD moved back to 2005/6 ?? Dont wanna miss the boat again.. already did in 2007 and 2011. Waiting.

[Spectator]

Also notice the expected few hundred extra EB visas.


E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the USCIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 25th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2013 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2013 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 158,466

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2013 the per-country limit is 26,913. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,689.

[pdmay2008]

Trackitt is down for more than an hour now. Thought of sharing happiness with other friends in Trackitt. I think most of the trackitt members are here as well.

[erikbond101]

yay...finally it moved...congratulations to all

[Sirisha]

Hi,

I got full time offer and I waited for the bulletin to get released for accepting the offer.

I am in crucial stage, I am expecting my baby in November and my current employer is saying I can't take more than two months leave
and my current contract will expire this August. I can't apply for new jobs now because of my pregnancy.

Now as the bulletin is out and my dates are not current. I am ready to take the offer.

My new employer said, he'll file for AC21.Before that if my current employer revokes my application, how I've to handle the situation?
Can you please suggest how to proceed further?

Thanks,

[seattlet]

Chinese would be confused....

EB2 China --> Aug08
EB3 China --> Jul10

The Chinese would be saying "Why the hell did I do my Masters". USA wants less literate Chinese people according to this bulletin.


Very true. I think current policy is stupid, they should rewrite the law to ensure cut off dates for EB1 > EB2 > EB3

Chinese folks should just port their EB2 to EB3 (reverse porting).

[qesehmk]

It all depends on how efficiently and in totality they are able to address the cases that are current in EB2I. If they do, then obviously the monthly 286 or limit for EB2I to be utilized will require some forward movement. In reality it is possible that EB2I leaves more than 3K unadjudicated with PDs prior to Jun 15 2008, in that case there definitely won't be a forward movement. Today we don't know how well and upto what extend the backlog will be cleared upto Jun 15 2008.
Thanks Q...You mentioned that their might be a possible temporary movement next month...Does it mean I have a chance to get GC in October...?
I know the reality is going to be sometime after June 2014 but just wanted to make sure I understood correctly..

[kd2008]

Very true. I think current policy is stupid, they should rewrite the law to ensure cut off dates for EB1 > EB2 > EB3

Chinese folks should just port their EB2 to EB3 (reverse porting).

Technically, the EB2-C folks who have not filed their I-485 will definitely reverse port. They will file an amended I-140 (moving from EB2 to EB3) and I-485 concurrently and make themselves eligible for EAD/AP.

And I am not kidding. This will happen. Esp. for EB2-C folks from 1 May 2010 to 1 Jul 2010 who have never filed an I-485.

[civilengineer]

Missed by 4 days (June 19). I did not have high hopes to start with, so not too disappointed. I am glad that my prediction that I won't be current came true. :D
Good to know there is still a sliver of hope for future bulletins this year, albeit minimal.
One thing I did not get is why helooo thinks he missed by a day. His profile says his date is May 16. Is that a typo? Is he actually June 16?

[ramya76]

Good news & Good luck to all who are current in this bulletin including me.

Gurus, I am current in this bulletin & my PD is 02/08/13. I just checked my status in USCIS website, it is showing as 'Request for Evidence Response Review'. Is there any chance am I going to get GreenCard sooner? If yes, how soon I can expect. Thanks

[sandyn16]

EB3 India has progressed to Sep 22, 03? Is there a chance of retrogressing in FY 2014?

[pdmay2008]

One more thing to note is EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is reducing. This is definitely good news for FY2014 spillover. I expect it will clear out whole 2009 next year, CO has to open gates again for more demand. I wish good luck to all EB2I.

[Jagan01]

It is somewhat guaranteed by the current policy in that the spillover rules allow vertical falldown.

I think the assumption was the demand(EB1) < demand(EB2) < demand(EB3). This has been true historically, but EB2/3 China reveals an anomaly.

Because of this anomaly, you already have anecdotal evidence that the US doesn't really treat EB1 as *greater than* EB2 and EB2 as *greater than* EB3. The US just treats them as separate categories in some sense. If they did not, they should have automatically ported EB2-C cases and made sure that PD violation did not occur.

So where is the new page for FY2014 predictions ?

Gurus,
Please update your predictions for FY2014. Assuming that the same downtrend in EB1I and EB2WW continues would it be appropriate to think that we move on to Feb 2009 by the end of next fiscal year.

[desitiger]

Cannot thank god enough !!

[qesehmk]

Not reducing - he says - there was less than expected demand in last 2 months. IMHO that could be just white noise. As per next year ... think about it ... there won't be 18K FB visas.. so that cuts a lot of movement right there. Everything else being equal - next year could be extremely tight i.e. 6 months of less movement. Don't mean to scare ... but just saying that at this moment it's all hazy. We will know more as we understand the exact level of SOFAD this year and consumption of EB1 and EB2ROw.
One more thing to note is EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is reducing. This is definitely good news for FY2014 spillover. I expect it will clear out whole 2009 next year, CO has to open gates again for more demand. I wish good luck to all EB2I.

[venkat]

Thanks once again Q. I completely understand now



It all depends on how efficiently and in totality they are able to address the cases that are current in EB2I. If they do, then obviously the monthly 286 or limit for EB2I to be utilized will require some forward movement. In reality it is possible that EB2I leaves more than 3K unadjudicated with PDs prior to Jun 15 2008, in that case there definitely won't be a forward movement. Today we don't know how well and upto what extend the backlog will be cleared upto Jun 15 2008.

[civilengineer]

I think the rule of thumb for EB2I of PD+5 years is not valid any more. It is more like 6-7 years now. The first page can be updated as such on this thread or new threads.

[Spectator]

Spec - we wouldn't know that until the DHS annual report is published for 2013.CO pretty much says so himself.


The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.

He previously said (in the July VB)


Worldwide:

No additional movement. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. Therefore, the cut-off date will be held until it can be determined what level of demand is to be expected, and whether it is likely to be sustained.

Even then, he was admitting that the later movement was unlikely to translate into demand, since 5 months would be in the new FY.


Had he moved the Dates earlier and then moved them further (as I was surprised he didn't - see my previous posts), then he would not be in a position of having so little demand for ROW/C/M that he would feel the need to move EB3-I forward by 8 months.

That covers as many as 6.9k AOS visas according to the latest USCIS Inventory. We all know that is not a correct figure, since a large number of porters need to be removed from that gross figure. However, it represents at least a year's extra movement due to CO's improper movement of other Countries within EB3 (whether deliberate or not).

Since I forecast that would be the result of the late movement and the failure to keep moving dates forward, I feel perfectly justified in complaining about it, since it was a very obvious danger.

He should have moved the dates earlier and further, then retrogressed towards the end of the year if necessary - and I don't say that in hindsight.

I'll wager that, when the DOS Visa Statistics are published (hopefully in January), EB3-ROW will once again fall far short of their notional allocation.

[qesehmk]

we will use this thread only so that people who bookmark don't have to change. But we will move all the posts prior to Sep 2013 to an archived thread for 2013.
So where is the new page for FY2014 predictions ?

Gurus,
Please update your predictions for FY2014. Assuming that the same downtrend in EB1I and EB2WW continues would it be appropriate to think that we move on to Feb 2009 by the end of next fiscal year.

[eb207232008]

copy/paste in September bulletin from August:))
"It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months."

[helooo]

Missed by 4 days (June 19). I did not have high hopes to start with, so not too disappointed. I am glad that my prediction that I won't be current came true. :D
Good to know there is still a sliver of hope for future bulletins this year, albeit minimal.
One thing I did not get is why helooo thinks he missed by a day. His profile says his date is May 16. Is that a typo? Is he actually June 16?

It was typo in profile Bro.Just fixed it.Hope they move little more next month.

[Spectator]

Not reducing - he says - there was less than expected demand in last 2 months. IMHO that could be just white noise. As per next year ... think about it ... there won't be 18K FB visas.. so that cuts a lot of movement right there. Everything else being equal - next year could be extremely tight i.e. 6 months of less movement. Don't mean to scare ... but just saying that at this moment it's all hazy. We will know more as we understand the exact level of SOFAD this year and consumption of EB1 and EB2ROw.Q, Totally agree with you.

Until we get more information, my sense is that the majority of extra numbers came from EB1, who may only use 31-32k. In that respect CO is correct, there has been a noticeable reduction in approvals for EB1 and EB2-WW recently.

My worry is that the latest Inventory for EB1 doesn't really speak of reduced demand - therefore the reduction may be more USCIS processing driven as it has been previously. EB2-WW don't lack for cases to approve either.

Congratulations to all those Current for September! Bon Chance!

[Pedro Gonzales]

Whoa !! super thrilled by the movement. The analysis on this forum is really exemplary. My PD is june 10th, 2008. How likely is that they will clear the backlog all the way through june 15th, 2008?

A few comments:
1) Visa numbers will almost certainly run out before everybody pre June 15, 2008 gets their GCs in hand.
2) However, given the length of time and analysis the DoS appears to have spent prior to getting this bulletin out, they may have made a pretty accurate movement so the folks missing out will be minimal
3) On the whole, the USCIS appears to be approving applications based on PDs, so the ones that miss out are likely to be closer to the June 15, 2008 date.
4) EB3 to EB2 Porting demand in FY2014 will be lower than FY2013 because the bulk of the pent up demand has already manifested itself in 2013, new organic porting demand will generate at a slower pace, hence there won't be as much of an urgency to retrogress EB2 dates in Oct/Nov as there was last year. Less relevant, if there is an immediate retrogression, it won't be as severe as it was last year (2004), I'd expect it to go no further back than Jul 2007.
5) My personal opinion lines up with Qs that there is a reasonable probability that the retrogression won't be immediate and may not hit for a couple of months, allowing those folks that miss out pre-Sep 30, 2013 to get their GCs using the FY2014 monthly quota for Oct and Nov, and even some quarterly spill over in December.

Bottom line, I think anyone that isn't subject to an RFE or isn't applying for their I485 now will get their GC in September, and those others will get theirs in October or November.



If you are asking for my guess - my guess is he WILL retrogress Dec onwards. He will spare Oct and perhaps Nov too.

[kd2008]

CO pretty much says so himself.



He previously said (in the July VB)



Even then, he was admitting that the later movement was unlikely to translate into demand, since 5 months would be in the new FY.


Had he moved the Dates earlier and then moved them further (as I was surprised he didn't - see my previous posts), then he would not be in a position of having so little demand for ROW/C/M that he would feel the need to move EB3-I forward by 8 months.

That covers as many as 6.9k AOS visas according to the latest USCIS Inventory. We all know that is not a correct figure, since a large number of porters need to be removed from that gross figure. However, it represents at least a year's extra movement due to CO's improper movement of other Countries within EB3 (whether deliberate or not).

Since I forecast that would be the result of the late movement and the failure to keep moving dates forward, I feel perfectly justified in complaining about it, since it was a very obvious danger.

He should have moved the dates earlier and further, then retrogressed towards the end of the year if necessary - and I don't say that in hindsight.

I'll wager that, when the DOS Visa Statistics are published (hopefully in January), EB3-ROW will once again fall far short of their notional allocation.

I agree with you Spec. This was writing on the wall. CO should have moved dates earlier. For all we know, their might be very little demand left for EB3-ROW. May be the category will go current.

EB3-P also moved from 22 Oct 2006 to 01 Dec 2006.

[NOV2007]

we will use this thread only so that people who bookmark don't have to change. But we will move all the posts prior to Sep 2013 to an archived thread for 2013.

Q,

I was looking at first page, and what you predicted was more accurate. Congrats!!!! and you are awesome, your help and analysis has been of great help to lot of people like me who have bee waiting to see better life.
Congratulations to all who became current with today's bulletin.
I would like to Thank Spec/ and other Guru's for answering everyone's questions on this forum. I hope to see dates moving forward from next VB and more and more folks rolling.

[indianguy]

gurus.. long time lurker on the forums - had to register and thank you for your predictions. just amazing work.

i'm current (again) - but a recipient of mass rfe - for which my wonderful company provided attorney is still plodding through the response. Wondering if the response to the rfe reaches uscis by Sep 1st, does it still leave me with a chance to get greened? or am i screwed?

thanks!!

[qesehmk]

Everything - except the EB3 category allocation - so approx 14K.

The reason is - one way shape or form they come from EB4->eB5->EB1->EB2.

The only caveat is that EB2ROW might have still used its full limit but failed to utilize the revised limit due to FB spillover. But I would tend to think that EB2I received at least 11K of the 18K.

Q, how many of those 18K visas did EB2-I receive directly? Do we have an educated guess already?

[pdmay2008]

There will be close to 10K leftover before 1 Jan 2009 + 15K from 2009...this is in addition to porting. It is possible to clear this out if we get spillovers similar to 2011 (that was one exceptional year). However I think that the reduced demand is artificial and achieved by increasing processing times in EB1 and EB2-ROW. EB2-I is moving at the pace of 7 months each FY (total movement = 14 months between FY 2011 and 2013) and to clear 2009, it would require a movement of 18 months. That's very unlikely.

Thanks for putting this equation. Now I get the point. Any chance of getting FB spillover next year?

[Spectator]

I agree with you Spec. This was writing on the wall. CO should have moved dates earlier. For all we know, their might be very little demand left for EB3-ROW. May be the category will go current.

EB3-P also moved from 22 Oct 2006 to 01 Dec 2006.kd,

I'm glad someone understands.

I think the EB3-P movement was purely to bring Philippines up to the 7% overall total of 11.1k within EB.

Continuing EB3-P demand is going to make it very difficult for them to not to retrogress further and further away from all other Countries than India in EB3.

I'm looking forward to seeing the Demand Data (if it ever gets published) figures for EB3-WW as they build up. I suspect after 2008, most people (for all Countries) have deserted EB3 and forward movement can be quite rapid in the future.

[Vkkpnm]

Congrats everyone for this big jump. A quick question to all gurus: Does this affect the final retrogressed date? Where would be the priority date at the end of Dec 13?

[Jagan01]

Spec, Q, and other Gurus,

Any idea about what was considered in Aug bulletin and what was considered in Sep bulletin.

We had a discussion earlier where people suspected that FA is only taken into account for Aug bulletin and FD is not taken into account. With the Sep bulletin the use of the words "otherwise unused numbers" and the fact that CO specifically mentions low consumption of EB1, it looks as if FD was only considered in Sep movement.

Basically my Question is to find out in which bulletin and at what time the CO gave the following spillovers to EB2I:
1. FD from EB1, EB4, EB5
2. FA from EB2WW
3. Family based unused visas (also is this available every year ?)

[Pedro Gonzales]

kd,

I'm glad someone understands.

I think the EB3-P movement was purely to bring Philippines up to the 7% overall total of 11.1k within EB.

Continuing EB3-P demand is going to make it very difficult for them to not to retrogress further and further away from all other Countries than India in EB3.

I'm looking forward to seeing the Demand Data (if it ever gets published) figures for EB3-WW as they build up. I suspect after 2008, most people (for all Countries) have deserted EB3 and forward movement can be quite rapid in the future.

Spec, I too completely agree that CO's using executive decisions and processing efficiencies to help ameliorate the EB3I plight at the expense of EB3ROW, but I don't think it's his decision and more likely a memo from the WH. I don't think people like the optics of 10 year waits for EB applicants and if he's trying to find ways to bend the rules to reduce that, more power to him. I would sympathize with someone from EB3ROW when that category retrogresses without him getting his GC, but I also sympathize with the 2003 PD EB3I applicant with a kid that's going to age out this year.

[sandyn16]

Do we think EB3-I will retrogress in FY 2014?

[Jun1308]

Lucky me !!! Looks like no one can beat my PD ( Jun 13,2008) this time.

Congrats to all who become current.

Thanks Moderators for your wonderful estimations on this forum.

[nishant2200]

Congratulations to current folks!

[amulchandra]

Spec, I too completely agree that CO's using executive decisions and processing efficiencies to help ameliorate the EB3I plight at the expense of EB3ROW, but I don't think it's his decision and more likely a memo from the WH. I don't think people like the optics of 10 year waits for EB applicants and if he's trying to find ways to bend the rules to reduce that, more power to him. I would sympathize with someone from EB3ROW when that category retrogresses without him getting his GC, but I also sympathize with the 2003 PD EB3I applicant with a kid that's going to age out this year.

If Eb3 ROW becomes current in the near future can we expect more spill overs to eb3 I?


Thank you

Amul

[Spectator]

If Eb3 ROW becomes current in the near future can we expect more spill overs to eb3 I?


Thank you

AmulAmul,

If EB3-ROW became Current, than by law, after all other Countries have reached the 7% limit, spare visas would fall across to the most retrogressed Country in EB3, which is India.

I don't think that is going to happen in the short term, but if EB3 demand has dropped considerably, then it is not an entirely impossible situation in the longer term.

[amulchandra]

Amul,

If EB3-ROW became Current, than by law, after all other Countries have reached the 7% limit, spare visas would fall across to the most retrogressed Country in EB3, which is India.

I don't think that is going to happen in the short term, but if EB3 demand has dropped considerably, then it is not an entirely impossible situation in the longer term.
Thank you very much Spectator. At least there is some hope now - my PD being Jul 2006 Eb3 I.

[garihc27]

Gurus,

I am in a unique situation. Long story short, my PD is 05/2008 so my case is current. However my PERM is still to be approved. After years of audits and appeals, recently BALCA ruled in my favor. I am waiting on DOL now to approve PERM. Do you know if there is a timeline on DOL approval of BALCA cases?
I am hoping that the approval comes in the next month, so I could concurrent file (I-140 & I-485) before the Sept 30th date.

Thanks!

[Spectator]

I'm going to guess that as a result of the COD of 15JUN08 in the September VB, EB2-I will receive around 20-21k approvals in FY2013, taking into account some cases will be left behind.

That's a pretty good result.

[eb2visa]

Can we expect the same next year, any guess. I think its time to start new number crunch :)


I'm going to guess that as a result of the COD of 15JUN08 in the September VB, EB2-I will receive around 20-21k approvals in FY2013, taking into account some cases will be left behind.

That's a pretty good result.

[indianguy]

I don't understand why you are letting your attorney handle it. I485 is *your own* application. Respond to the RFE on your own. It's really not that hard.

long story short..we got acquired recently and the new employer wanted their attorney to handle the case to "dot the i's and cross the t's" before giving the EVL :(
i've been prodding the attorney - supposed to be one of the biggest if not the biggest (you would know who I mean), and its slow going... still hoping to get them to respond by 1st sep. Does that leave me with a fighting chance at all to be greened? (or, is it pretty much moot right now that i'd have to sit this one out)? Not sure how the RFE responses are handled by USCIS when PD is current at the time of response.

[kd2008]

I'm going to guess that as a result of the COD of 15JUN08 in the September VB, EB2-I will receive around 20-21k approvals in FY2013, taking into account some cases will be left behind.

That's a pretty good result.

Spec, I expected the residual demand to be 33K for EB2-IC. Does that number jive with your calculations? I thought the EB2-I number would be 16K or so. I guess I forgot to add porting which may be another 5K?

Anyways, calculations are not my forte.

[chewbaca]

Glad the dates are current. Has been a long journey and qesehmk made it a more informative and less painful...Special thanks to Q, Spec, Matt, Indiani for keeping people like me informed and less in the dark

- My PD is Jan 10 2008 but I have not yet filed for i-485. Do you think there will be enough time to get the actual card instead of just getting the EAD/AP within the next few months?

[june2008-eb2]

Missed by 9 days and yet to file 485

Gurus, I am bit bummed, I was hoping against hope to file I-485 this month and it feels really bad to be so close yet so far. Is there any hope in the next few months? There are quite a few life decisions which are pending on this and I do not want to change jobs now only to miss the window again (already missed once in 2011 as I was re-doing PERM). Would really appreciate any guidance here.

[username]

Gurus,

I am in a unique situation. Long story short, my PD is 05/2008 so my case is current. However my PERM is still to be approved. After years of audits and appeals, recently BALCA ruled in my favor. I am waiting on DOL now to approve PERM. Do you know if there is a timeline on DOL approval of BALCA cases?
I am hoping that the approval comes in the next month, so I could concurrent file (I-140 & I-485) before the Sept 30th date.

Thanks!

i doubt anybody on the forum could answer your question. You can try and see if Senator and Congressman can help you out. Good Luck!!!

[civilengineer]

garihc27: Most likely no one knows the answer to your question (I certainly don't). That's probably why you are not getting a response.

[Jagan01]

I'm going to guess that as a result of the COD of 15JUN08 in the September VB, EB2-I will receive around 20-21k approvals in FY2013, taking into account some cases will be left behind.

That's a pretty good result.

Spec, Q, and other Gurus,

Any idea about what was considered in Aug bulletin and what was considered in Sep bulletin.

We had a discussion earlier where people suspected that FA is only taken into account for Aug bulletin and FD is not taken into account. With the Sep bulletin the use of the words "otherwise unused numbers" and the fact that CO specifically mentions low consumption of EB1, it looks as if FD was only considered in Sep movement.

Basically my Question is to find out in which bulletin and at what time the CO gave the following spillovers to EB2I:
1. FD from EB1, EB4, EB5
2. FA from EB2WW
3. Family based unused visas (also is this available every year ?)

[willywonka]

Congratulations to all those who will be current next month.
I am very happy for you guys.

Q, I didn't really think June 2008 would even be remotely possible. You stuck with your prediction even in light of several indicators to the contrary. Your intuition/gut perfectly compliments the raw and solid calculations from Spec, Matt, etc. If this is indeed the last full fledged prediction from you, I have to say... Way to Go Q!!! And thank you for everything. I am going to stick around this forum at least until I get my GC and I will surely miss you.

Gurus, when the dust from this FY settles and when we get to look at the pending inventory early next year, I am inclined to think that there would be a total backlog of 9-10k eb2i before PD Oct 1 2008. (That includes unresolved porting cases from this FY, unlucky unapproved straight eb2i
cases left over prior to Jun2008, newly filed cases, and the currently known demand between Jun15 and Sep30 2008). Does that make any sense to you at all ? Can you share your opinion please ?

[sandyn16]

But the spillover is for FY 2013 right. So this means they either have to approve cases until september 2003 else in October move it back? I do hope it moves ahead.

[Spectator]

Spec, I expected the residual demand to be 33K for EB2-IC. Does that number jive with your calculations? I thought the EB2-I number would be 16K or so. I guess I forgot to add porting which may be another 5K?

Anyways, calculations are not my forte.kd,

You are correct that I am including an allowance for porting.

[sandyn16]

I don't think so. All EB3-I cases are pre-adjudicated. EB3-I has received *spillover* from EB3-ROW, hence the date has moved in September. It will move 1-2 weeks per month as usual starting October.

This spillover is for FY 2013 right which means they either process all cases until september 2003 or else in October move it back? I sure hope they keep on moving it ahead

[thelongwait]

I have been a very passive member but couldn't control myself registering to mention how valuable about Q's and other experts contributions are to/in this forum to the immigrant community. Hats off to you! You deserve a standing applause!
Congratulations to everyone who are current.
I missed the boat by 5 days (PD - June 19 2008) but wouldn't sweat much on it since there are few people who didn't have an EAD even with earlier PD than mine.
Hopefully USCIS learns from its mistakes and grants visas in order of PD.



General Prediction - anybody in EB2IC category who is interested in understanding time to get GC - should keep in mind 2 things:
1. Time to GC is generally 4-5 years since your PD.
2. Time to GC is a step function. i.e. generally more % of approvals come between Jun-Sep every years. Oct-May is generally uneventful for most people. The reason being - that generally USCIS/DOS do NOT do quarterly spillover and hence for EB2IC the monthly quota is paltry and very few people can get their GC in that quota. The major dates movement happens at the end of USCIS year i.e. between Jun-Sep every year.


2013 Prediction (Updated based on DOS data) - Updated 11 Jul 03

Summary Prediction - EB2IC backlog will be cleared between Feb-July 2008 by Sep 2013 based on my personal calculations.

Reasoning

Headwinds to EB2IC
1. EB5 - Looks like EB5 will yield little to none SOFAD. There is strong demand in EB5 both in 485 as well as CP cases. (9k YTD usage already confirmed)
2. EB2ROW - EB2ROW most likely is not going to yield any extra visas to EB2IC. EB2ROW has quite strong demand (50% more compared to last year). Its possible that ROW will consume between 1-5K more than its usual quota. (assuming 5K porting)
3. EB4 - Has strong demand and will probably yield 3K to EB1.
4. EB1 - Has strong demand and will yield about 5K to EB1.

Tailwinds to EB2IC
1. The only thing working for EB2IC is the 18K extra family visas. Of them EB2IC will receive 9K since EB3 and EB5 are going to require all the extra visas they get.

Thus EB2IC should expect to receive overall 9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +5K (EB1) +6K (Quota) - 5K (ROW overage) = 18K visas.

That should be sufficient to clear EB2IC backlog upto May 2008.

The upside to the May 2008 forecast could be upto Jul 2008 and the downside is Feb 2008. The risk or opportunity both lie in EB2ROW this year. The other categories don't have much variables. Any hopes of dates moving into 2009 in a sustainable manner this year are zero if any. The dates could still move into 2009 if CO wants to build any inventory. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Those interested in playing these scenarios themselves can use the paid service at www.whereismygc.com (http://www.whereismygc.com) especially if you want to build your own forecast etc. Good luck.

Visa Bulletin Commentary

CO says in VB that the movement is within numbers available in EB2. To me that is indication of FD numbers are yet to come. And hence I would expect movement of 3-6 months more in September.

Any movement beyond Jul 2008 will be unsustainable and we should expect a retrogression AFTER nov 2013.


Announcement for FY 2014
FY 2014 (i.e. Oct 2013 onwards) I am going to stop contributing to predictions here. With whereismygc tool now there is no real need for me to spend time doing calculations manually. Besides it is a conflict of interest to do both.

[Jagan01]

Congratulations to all those who will be current next month.
I am very happy for you guys.

Q, I didn't really think June 2008 would even be remotely possible. You stuck with your prediction even in light of several indicators to the contrary. Your intuition/gut perfectly compliments the raw and solid calculations from Spec, Matt, etc. If this is indeed the last full fledged prediction from you, I have to say... Way to Go Q!!! And thank you for everything. I am going to stick around this forum at least until I get my GC and I will surely miss you.

Gurus, when the dust from this FY settles and when we get to look at the pending inventory early next year, I am inclined to think that there would be a total backlog of 9-10k eb2i before PD Oct 1 2008. (That includes unresolved porting cases from this FY, unlucky unapproved straight eb2i
cases left over prior to Jun2008, newly filed cases, and the currently known demand between Jun15 and Sep30 2008). Does that make any sense to you at all ? Can you share your opinion please ?

I am not a guru but would like to say that the visa bulletin was released pretty late and CO should have thought that the demand until June 2008 would be fulfilled this year. Of course his predictions could be wrong but I would expect an error of around 2k. Now the additional demand from june to oct is another 5.5k and thus I would expect the total backlog to be around 7.5k

However, I am thinking the porting is going to be lethal until the 2014 spillovers come in. The biggest worrying factor is that there is a very high motivation for people with PDs post 2007 to port to EB2 as they might not even have their EADs.

So to summarize, I think the next time inventory is released it might be around 7.5k before Oct 2008. But by the time CO can move the dates again (Aug 2014 viasa bulletin) that number would have gone up to 12k.

[fun4dddd]

Glad the dates are current. Has been a long journey and qesehmk made it a more informative and less painful...Special thanks to Q, Spec, Matt, Indiani for keeping people like me informed and less in the dark

- My PD is Jan 10 2008 but I have not yet filed for i-485. Do you think there will be enough time to get the actual card instead of just getting the EAD/AP within the next few months?


I don't see the dates retrogressing anytime soon, rest assured:-)

My friends got their GC in 2 months, so anything is possible....

[natvyas]

Spec, Q, Matt

Would you agree that trackitt could be relied for Eb2ROW approval trend if not the actual numbers? The EB2ROW approvals really tapered off in the last couple of months compared to those earlier Jan-Feb-Mar.

Regards
Nat

[qesehmk]

Natvyas - Of late I haven't used trackitt much because I figured that last years usage + labor data + USCIS dashboard are sufficient to make decent predictions. However trackitt data is very useful for EB2I and EB2ROW trends. Both have sufficient data points that the data IMHO is statistically significant to draw inference from with some cautions of course. The caution being - the data generally is more dense for past dates and less dense for current dates (as one would expect). So the ratio of trackitt cases to actual cases changes accordingly.



Spec, Q, Matt

Would you agree that trackitt could be relied for Eb2ROW approval trend if not the actual numbers? The EB2ROW approvals really tapered off in the last couple of months compared to those earlier Jan-Feb-Mar.

Regards
Nat

[willywonka]

I am not a guru but would like to say that the visa bulletin was released pretty late and CO should have thought that the demand until June 2008 would be fulfilled this year. Of course his predictions could be wrong but I would expect an error of around 2k. Now the additional demand from june to oct is another 5.5k and thus I would expect the total backlog to be around 7.5k

However, I am thinking the porting is going to be lethal until the 2014 spillovers come in. The biggest worrying factor is that there is a very high motivation for people with PDs post 2007 to port to EB2 as they might not even have their EADs.

So to summarize, I think the next time inventory is released it might be around 7.5k before Oct 2008. But by the time CO can move the dates again (Aug 2014 viasa bulletin) that number would have gone up to 12k.

12k is scary, if it is indeed that high, it puts an Oct 2008 PDer at pretty much the same spot in line as he was at the beginning of this FY (maybe just a couple of months better)...Even though it looks like Eb2i is getting around 18k total this FY. These potential porters give me nightmares.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I just remembered the old PD Database thread here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/201-Database-of-PDs-for-folks-not-current-yet?p=10498http://)

Congratulations to the following folk for being current again, although some of you may have got your GCs back in spring 2012.

01/10/08 - FamilyGuy
01/10/08 - ravisekhar
01/14/08 - Kreddy.g
01/15/08 - indiasunil
01/29/08 - cbpds1
02/01/08 - Gclongwait
02/06/08 - rich895
02/07/08 - Nabrika
02/08/08 - meso129
02/13/08 - chagas
02/22/08 - ggk189
02/XX/08 - Karma1979
03/07/08 - polapragada
03/11/08 - grnwtg
03/13/08 - pdmar08
03/14/08 - vwsb310
03/15/08 - ontheedge
03/26/08 - Saturnring
03/28/08 - pdmarch282008
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/08/08 - GCKnowHow
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/22/08 - meetasn(Satish)
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/06/08 - saky007
05/07/08 - Aary09
05/08/08 - pdmay2008
05/08/08 - cm9201
05/16/08- free2talk
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie
06/13/08 - EB2Jun08

[vinodindia]

Hi -

If anyone with knowledge about this responds, it will be great. My PD is May 30th 2008. I had filed my 485 in Jan 2012 and got my EAD through TSC since I used to live in VT. Last Dec, I moved to MN which comes under NSC. I promptly changed my address on the application with USCIS in December itself and go the confirmation. Since MN comes under NSC, will my paper work be transferred from TSC or it does not matter and TSC will be processing the file?

[natvyas]

I just remembered the old PD Database thread here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/201-Database-of-PDs-for-folks-not-current-yet?p=10498http://)

Congratulations to all the following folk for being current again, although some of you may have got their GCs back in spring 2012.



01/10/08 - FamilyGuy
01/10/08 - ravisekhar
01/14/08 - Kreddy.g
01/15/08 - indiasunil
01/29/08 - cbpds1
02/01/08 - Gclongwait
02/06/08 - rich895
02/07/08 - Nabrika
02/08/08 - meso129
02/13/08 - chagas
02/22/08 - ggk189
02/XX/08 - Karma1979
03/07/08 - polapragada
03/11/08 - grnwtg
03/13/08 - pdmar08
03/14/08 - vwsb310
03/15/08 - ontheedge
03/24/08 - natvyas
03/26/08 - Saturnring
03/28/08 - pdmarch282008
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/08/08 - GCKnowHow
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/22/08 - meetasn(Satish)
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/06/08 - saky007
05/07/08 - Aary09
05/08/08 - pdmay2008
05/08/08 - cm9201
05/16/08- free2talk
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie
06/13/08 - EB2Jun08

[qesehmk]

Q, I didn't really think June 2008 would even be remotely possible. You stuck with your prediction even in light of several indicators to the contrary. Your intuition/gut perfectly compliments the raw and solid calculations from Spec, Matt, etc.

If this is indeed the last full fledged prediction from you, I have to say... Way to Go Q!!! And thank you for everything. I am going to stick around this forum at least until I get my GC and I will surely miss you.

@willy - appreciate your kind words. On intuition and gut - I actually do use data. But then I don't go too crazy slicing and dicing a whole lot because statistics loses its significance at micro level. Randomness kicks in. So it is critical to keep usage of data at a high level.

On whether it will be last prediction - indeed I will for obvious reasons that I have earlier talked about. But I promise I will be around and sure I am not shy on giving advice if I could be of any help to any one of you.

[Jagan01]

12k is scary, if it is indeed that high, it puts an Oct 2008 PDer at pretty much the same spot in line as he was at the beginning of this FY (maybe just a couple of months better)...Even though it looks like Eb2i is getting around 18k total this FY. These potential porters give me nightmares.

Well there are two categories of porters from EB3 to EB2:
1. Those who had EADs. This porting is difficult as the job requirements should match, etc.
2. Those who never had EADs. This porting is easy as there is no requirement for job to be iwhtin same state, same description, same profile, same duties, etc.

So far we have seen porting of cases of type(1) and that amounted to 300 porters a month when the date was 2004. If that date was 2008 then it would amount to 700 porters at least. Now with the combination of (1) and (2) it is going be much higher. If the PD stays at June08 then there will be both types of porting active (1) and (2).

Also since the time the dates became unavailable (Jun 2012) the type (2) porting has been going on in the background. It is not subject bulletin dates and hence that continues. I am sure there are at least 10 k cases between Aug 2007 and June 2008 that would have been EB3 before the dates became unavailable in June 2012. These people have a lot of incentive and would have been converting to EB2 and I am thinking at least 5k of those might have already ported. That is where I come up with the figure of 5k to add to the already visible 7.5k that we have.

That is the explanation of 12~12.5k before Oct 2008.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Hi -

If anyone with knowledge about this responds, it will be great. My PD is May 30th 2008. I had filed my 485 in Jan 2012 and got my EAD through TSC since I used to live in VT. Last Dec, I moved to MN which comes under NSC. I promptly changed my address on the application with USCIS in December itself and go the confirmation. Since MN comes under NSC, will my paper work be transferred from TSC or it does not matter and TSC will be processing the file?

Unless someone else responds differently, I think you are safe. My application was randomly transferred from TSC to NSC even though i didn't have an address change. Since you notified the USCIS of the address change, you are good to go.

[Pedro Gonzales]

03/24/08 - natvyas


Congratulations to you too, but if you want to get your name on the list, please update that thread. It'll help us keep track of approvals too when Sep 3 rolls around.

[Spectator]

Spec, Q, Matt

Would you agree that trackitt could be relied for Eb2ROW approval trend if not the actual numbers? The EB2ROW approvals really tapered off in the last couple of months compared to those earlier Jan-Feb-Mar.

Regards
Natnat,

Historically, the figures have been quite reliable. As Q points out, the actual % is subject to small changes each year and is never identical.

Here's the comparison of EB2-ROW (No M or P) Trackitt approvals for last year and to this year to date, calculated on the same basis.

Month ---- FY12 - FY13
October ---- 40 --- 68
November --- 14 -- 122
December --- 60 --- 44
January ---- 58 --- 89
February --- 61 --- 75
March ------ 64 --- 65
April ------ 46 --- 61
May -------- 50 --- 56
June ------- 52 --- 47
July -------- 3 --- 41
August ------ 4 --- 10
September --- 1

Total ----- 453 -- 678


The numbers of EB2-M and EB2-P cases on Trackitt is too low to glean any reliable data.

[Jagan01]

Well there are two categories of porters from EB3 to EB2:
1. Those who had EADs. This porting is difficult as the job requirements should match, etc.
2. Those who never had EADs. This porting is easy as there is no requirement for job to be iwhtin same state, same description, same profile, same duties, etc.

So far we have seen porting of cases of type(1) and that amounted to 300 porters a month when the date was 2004. If that date was 2008 then it would amount to 700 porters at least. Now with the combination of (1) and (2) it is going be much higher. If the PD stays at June08 then there will be both types of porting active (1) and (2).

Also since the time the dates became unavailable (Jun 2012) the type (2) porting has been going on in the background. It is not subject bulletin dates and hence that continues. I am sure there are at least 10 k cases between Aug 2007 and June 2008 that would have been EB3 before the dates became unavailable in June 2012. These people have a lot of incentive and would have been converting to EB2 and I am thinking at least 5k of those might have already ported. That is where I come up with the figure of 5k to add to the already visible 7.5k that we have.

That is the explanation of 12~12.5k before Oct 2008.

We need to monitor the trackitt database to see how many people apply their I-485 for the first time in the month of September 2013. Then scaling it out will give you the number of porters which according to me might be around 5k. Trackitt usually represents 6% of the dataset. Thus if we see another 300 applications that are added to trackitt database then can conclude that in the real world there are 5000 type 2 porters that got into the queue in front of you.

The longer the date stays at June 2008 the more the porting to be seen ahead of your PD.

Spec,
One question. My PD is Jan 2009. I initially was hoping that I might get current in FY2014 but now I am really tensed and am getting a negative feeling that it might not be the case. Any advice. Any number crunching on where we will end up in FY 2014.

[Jagan01]

Spec, Q, MATT, Teddy, and all other Gurus:

I need some advice. I have always failed to understand the movement that happened between June 2011 to Mar 2012. For example, lets consider the Nov 2011 bulletin. According to the explanation read in the posts, we should have been getting 300 visas per month of EB2I. Oct 2011 I-485 inventory is attached below which shows that there were at least 8k applicants in the inventory before July 2007. When CO could only give 300 visas and there were more than 8k pending before July 2007 then why did the dates move ahead from July 2007 to Nov 2007 in the Nov 2011 bulletin. This was followed until Mar 2012 and I fail to understand the basis. It has always been beyond me to comprehend this movement.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20October%2001 %202011.pdf

[Pedro Gonzales]

Well there are two categories of porters from EB3 to EB2:
1. Those who had EADs. This porting is difficult as the job requirements should match, etc.
2. Those who never had EADs. This porting is easy as there is no requirement for job to be iwhtin same state, same description, same profile, same duties, etc.

So far we have seen porting of cases of type(1) and that amounted to 300 porters a month when the date was 2004. If that date was 2008 then it would amount to 700 porters at least. Now with the combination of (1) and (2) it is going be much higher. If the PD stays at June08 then there will be both types of porting active (1) and (2).

Also since the time the dates became unavailable (Jun 2012) the type (2) porting has been going on in the background. It is not subject bulletin dates and hence that continues. I am sure there are at least 10 k cases between Aug 2007 and June 2008 that would have been EB3 before the dates became unavailable in June 2012. These people have a lot of incentive and would have been converting to EB2 and I am thinking at least 5k of those might have already ported. That is where I come up with the figure of 5k to add to the already visible 7.5k that we have.

That is the explanation of 12~12.5k before Oct 2008.

I disagree that 2 is going to be higher than 1. In fact I'm willling to bet that it will be significantly lower.

When I researched using AC21 portability a year ago, my take from my online research (that I trust) and my lawyer (that I trust less) was that there is a lot of flexibility in terms of geography and job description Progression in career and lateral moves in related organizations in the same sector (eg., in my sector, moving from an investment bank to a private equity fund, a family investment office, a venture capital shop, a corporate etc) are quite acceptable.

On the other hand, a person that doesn't have an EAD has to find an employer that is willing to go through the PERM process and apply for a new I140 and I485, all of which takes time and expense, and for smaller employers in my sector, this is a hassle they'd rather avoid.

Secondly, I don't believe that the 300 per month porting numbers are going to stay constant. I'll bet that they'll drop precipitously next year. That is because the folks most likely to port (because of children aging out, ability and willingness to move to better opportunities, or simply tired of waiting for their GCs) have already done so. No doubt every year there will be more people that fall into that category, but that is going to be far lower than we've had in FY2012 & FY2013 because of a pent up demand of several years that was met in those years. Also post 2008, I believe there are fewer % of applicants in EB3 and more in EB1 and EB2.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Spec can answer better...I think we are certainly going to get *some* spillover because F2A was made current and has remained current in Sept. But I don't think it is of the tremendous order as this year. It's more likely to be a couple of thousands or in that range, which we can ignore for all practical purposes. Spillover next year has to come from EB1 and EB2-ROW and it needs to be 10K+ just to reach 2009.

Actually, likely we'll get none.

Quote from the VB:

F2A: This category was made “Current” in an effort to generate new demand for the upcoming fiscal year. Information received during discussions with the National Visa Center and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services indicates that this action is already having the intended result. Therefore, it is likely that a cut-off will be imposed for October. This cut-off is unlikely to have any negative impact on those who have already initiated action on their case prior to the announcement of the October cut-off dates.

[Jagan01]

I disagree that 2 is going to be higher than 1. In fact I'm willling to bet that it will be significantly lower.

When I researched using AC21 portability a year ago, my take from my online research (that I trust) and my lawyer (that I trust less) was that there is a lot of flexibility in terms of geography and job description Progression in career and lateral moves in related organizations in the same sector (eg., in my sector, moving from an investment bank to a private equity fund, a family investment office, a venture capital shop, a corporate etc) are quite acceptable.

On the other hand, a person that doesn't have an EAD has to find an employer that is willing to go through the PERM process and apply for a new I140 and I485, all of which takes time and expense, and for smaller employers in my sector, this is a hassle they'd rather avoid.

Secondly, I don't believe that the 300 per month porting numbers are going to stay constant. I'll bet that they'll drop precipitously next year. That is because the folks most likely to port (because of children aging out, ability and willingness to move to better opportunities, or simply tired of waiting for their GCs) have already done so. No doubt every year there will be more people that fall into that category, but that is going to be far lower than we've had in FY2012 & FY2013 because of a pent up demand of several years that was met in those years. Also post 2008, I believe there are fewer % of applicants in EB3 and more in EB1 and EB2.

Pedro,
I respect your research that it might be easier for type (1) to port. But I do not agree with two facts.


I'll bet that they'll drop precipitously next year . This is not true. The set is bigger now than ever in FY 2013. In FY 2013 it stayed at 2004 and therefore only people before 2004 could port. Now it is 2008 and hence everyone before 2008 can port. Thus the porting numbers just based on type (1) will increase.



Also post 2008, I believe there are fewer % of applicants in EB3 and more in EB1 and EB2.. Here again I disagree. You seem to be looking at I-485 inventory and demand data. Please understand that the type (2) porters do not show up anywhere in EB3. By your logic in 2013, there are more applications in EB1 compared to EB2. That is factually incorrect. The numbers show up in inventory that way because EB2ers have never gotten a chance to file I-485 with PD 2013. Similarly EB3ers have never gotten a chance to file I-485 in 2008. There is a hidden wave there which is going to turn everything upside down.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Pedro,
I respect your research that it might be easier for type (1) to port. But I do not agree with two facts.

. This is not true. The set is bigger now than ever in FY 2013. In FY 2013 it stayed at 2004 and therefore only people before 2004 could port. Now it is 2008 and hence everyone before 2008 can port. Thus the porting numbers just based on type (1) will increase.


. Here again I disagree. You seem to be looking at I-485 inventory and demand data. Please understand that the type (2) porters do not show up anywhere in EB3. By your logic in 2013, there are more applications in EB1 compared to EB2. That is factually incorrect. The numbers show up in inventory that way because EB2ers have never gotten a chance to file I-485 with PD 2013. Similarly EB3ers have never gotten a chance to file I-485 in 2008. There is a hidden wave there which is going to turn everything upside down.

On your second point, I'll admit I haven't researched the subject myself but I'm certainly not going by the inventory or demand data. I'm going by what I've seen on this thread which is culled out of PERM data and Trackitt figures. Again, I haven't done the number crunching myself, so if you have analyzed the data and find the numbers to be higher, I'll defer to you.

On the first point, although the dates were stuck at 2004 for a while the porting demand is really going to be satisfied through the spillover, not the monthly availability. I'll explain my rationale in detail when i'm back at my computer at home.

[willywonka]

Gurus, another question regarding the basic reasoning behind moving the dates forward to Jun 15 2008.
Was CO thinking...
A) ok if I move the dates to 06152008, I am taking a risk with eb1 or eb2row going temporarily unavailable but at least I know that no visas will be wasted this FY ?
Or
B) ok based on my estimates of eb1, eb2row and porters for the rest of this FY, I know that all pending demand for Eb2I as of 06152008 can be comfortably accommodated within this years quota. It's ok if a few visas are wasted but I don't want eb1 and eb2row to even temporarily be unavailable.

[tenyearsgone]

On your second point, I'll admit I haven't researched the subject myself but I'm certainly not going by the inventory or demand data. I'm going by what I've seen on this thread which is culled out of PERM data and Trackitt figures. Again, I haven't done the number crunching myself, so if you have analyzed the data and find the numbers to be higher, I'll defer to you.

On the first point, although the dates were stuck at 2004 for a while the porting demand is really going to be satisfied through the spillover, not the monthly availability. I'll explain my rationale in detail when i'm back at my computer at home.

FWIW, I believe a lot of post-2007 EB3 folks are porting as well. Some of it is company driven as well..
For ex: Juniper for a long time had a EB3 only policy for their employees (even those with MS/PhD). In 2011, they changed one of their senior HR folks who came in pointed out that Juniper was losing many of their experienced/talented employees to porting. As a result, they revamped their entire immigration policy and practically everyone who was EB2 eligible went through PERM&I-140 again. Their entire set of EB3 folks prior to June 2008 is current now and more to come as dates move along. I am inclined to think those numbers are large (500+, maybe even 1000) given how large Juniper is and how many Indians work there.

This change is going to come to other companies in the Bay Area as well given the demand for experienced talent. To me it looks like porting will have a larger impact going forward and an estimate of 6000+ porters/yr is more realistic.

[Jagan01]

On your second point, I'll admit I haven't researched the subject myself but I'm certainly not going by the inventory or demand data. I'm going by what I've seen on this thread which is culled out of PERM data and Trackitt figures. Again, I haven't done the number crunching myself, so if you have analyzed the data and find the numbers to be higher, I'll defer to you.

On the first point, although the dates were stuck at 2004 for a while the porting demand is really going to be satisfied through the spillover, not the monthly availability. I'll explain my rationale in detail when i'm back at my computer at home.

Pedro,

I went through trackitt numbers for I-140 data. I can see that the following number of people have their I-140 approved post Apr 2012.
Sep 2004 - Aug 2007 : 97
Aug 2007 - Jun 2008 : 75
Total : 172

If we assume trackitt represents 6% of the set then 172 should map to 2866. So I thik we need to account for another 3k porters of type 2.
Type 1 porters will be the ones would at least be another 2k and that number will anyways be available in the next I-482 intventory. So I stick with the 12k demand before Oct 2008 (7.5 known + 3k type 2 porters + 2k type 1 porters).

[SeekingGC2013]

01/10/08 - ravisekhar
01/14/08 - Kreddy.g
01/15/08 - indiasunil
01/29/08 - cbpds1
02/01/08 - Gclongwait
02/06/08 - rich895
02/07/08 - Nabrika
02/08/08 - meso129
02/13/08 - chagas
02/22/08 - ggk189
02/XX/08 - Karma1979
03/07/08 - polapragada
03/11/08 - grnwtg
03/13/08 - pdmar08
03/14/08 - vwsb310
03/15/08 - ontheedge
03/24/08 - natvyas
03/26/08 - Saturnring
03/28/08 - pdmarch282008
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/08/08 - GCKnowHow
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/22/08 - meetasn(Satish)
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/06/08 - saky007
05/07/08 - Aary09
05/08/08 - pdmay2008
05/08/08 - cm9201
05/14/08 - SeekingGC2013
05/16/08- free2talk
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie
06/13/08 - EB2Jun08[/QUOTE]

[prem79]

Pedro, Matt, Q and Experts,

I have a PD of Dec 2006, (ported from EB3 to EB2). Filed 485/EAD/AP for first time in Aug 2013.
What is the best case and worst case scenario to expect GC.
I have missed the boat couple of times to file 485....

[vizcard]

Some general comments on my part
- First congrats to all to those who are current. I certainly hope that everyone who is current and has previously filed 485 get their GC in hand now.
- For those who are applying for the first time, please don't expect a GC this year.
- I firmly believe dates will retrogress in the Oct VB. Not retrogressing would mean all demand prior to June 15 has been cleared AND the 233 per month is sufficient to meet porting demand as well as newly filed 485s.
- I expect backlog to be cleared through the end of 2008 in FY14 (this may be different that where the COD will end up)

[chewbaca]

Vizcard,
My pd is in jan 2008. if dates retrogress would they go back to 2006/2007 or could they still linger in early jan :) - selfish and curious!!

[Vkkpnm]

viz,
I have rarely seen contradicting statements from
Viz and Q, where Q has hinted that dates may not retrogress till December and you are certain it will go back in Oct VB. what do you think how much date will be retrogressed in Oct?

[bathula44]

Please add mine to the list

01/03/08 - bathula44

[Jagan01]

viz,
I have rarely seen contradicting statements from
Viz and Q, where Q has hinted that dates may not retrogress till December and you are certain it will go back in Oct VB. what do you think how much date will be retrogressed in Oct?

I also do not think the dates will retrogress in Oct.

Even if CO runs out of the visas in Oct, he still has to build up inventory so that he has enough amount of pre-adj cases wen the SOFAD is applied next year. Looking at the inventory pretty much everything before 2007 is going to be cleared. Lets consider he has 8k left in 2008 in the Oct 2013 I-485 inventory report. He might actually want to build up more inventory and take in more applications so that he has a good 15k in hand by the time SOFAD is applied next year.

Issuing a GC is very different. I am saying he might stop issuing GC until end of fiscal year 2014 but if he wants to build inventory he might still keep the dates moving ahead until Jan 2014 bulletin. Once he has the necessary inventory he might pull the plug. I think that would happen in Jan 2014 as the next inventory data after oct will be in jan.

[vinodindia]

Unless someone else responds differently, I think you are safe. My application was randomly transferred from TSC to NSC even though i didn't have an address change. Since you notified the USCIS of the address change, you are good to go.

Thanks for your comments

[Spectator]

I also do not think the dates will retrogress in Oct.

Even if CO runs out of the visas in Oct, he still has to build up inventory so that he has enough amount of pre-adj cases wen the SOFAD is applied next year. Looking at the inventory pretty much everything before 2007 is going to be cleared. Lets consider he has 8k left in 2008 in the Oct 2013 I-485 inventory report. He might actually want to build up more inventory and take in more applications so that he has a good 15k in hand by the time SOFAD is applied next year.

Issuing a GC is very different. I am saying he might stop issuing GC until end of fiscal year 2014 but if he wants to build inventory he might still keep the dates moving ahead until Jan 2014 bulletin. Once he has the necessary inventory he might pull the plug. I think that would happen in Jan 2014 as the next inventory data after oct will be in jan.Jagan,

I don't understand what you are trying to say.

There is already 19k known pre-adjudicated Inventory beyond PD2008. If 8k was left of PD 2008 as well, that is 27k demand already. Why would he want to build up more Inventory in October-December 2013?

[MeraGC1]

Hi Spec,
Does this mean the next PD movement for EB2-I will be during July - September 2014 time frame? My PD is 7/15/08 and I was hoping to get GC this year.

Thanks



Jagan,

I don't understand what you are trying to say.

There is already 19k known pre-adjudicated Inventory beyond PD2008. If 8k was left of PD 2008 as well, that is 27k demand already. Why would he want to build up more Inventory in October-December 2013?

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,
Does this mean the next PD movement for EB2-I will be during July - September 2014 time frame? My PD is 7/15/08 and I was hoping to get GC this year.

ThanksMera,

My honest opinion is that CO will follow a similar strategy next year and that the COD won't advance past your PD until Q4 FY2014.

But what would I know?

[MeraGC1]

Do you think I can get it next year or Do I need to wait till 2015 because of porting & less SOFAD?

Thanks and appreciate your help!

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

I don't understand what you are trying to say.

There is already 19k known pre-adjudicated Inventory beyond PD2008. If 8k was left of PD 2008 as well, that is 27k demand already. Why would he want to build up more Inventory in October-December 2013?

Spec,
I think the 19k that you mentioned is split as 14k in 2009 and 5k in 2010. I am splitting the 16k of 2008 into 8k prior june and 8k post june. So once the spillovers are applied, there will be 8k left in 2008 and 19k post 2008.

The CO might want to get a fair idea of the porting numbers and keep the dates around 2008 so that he can get many of the porting applications in his inventory which can help him better estimate the numbers while applying spillover for FY2014. He might want to build up the 2008 inventory as it gives him accurate number on top of allowing him to follow PD ordering while handing out GC. Afterall, he keeps complaining that there is no visibility into porting applications and that is one way to get visibility as most of pre-2009 can get pre-adj that way.

I should have used the words "CO might want to build up sufficient 2007/2008 inventory so that he can get to better numbers"

[indiani]

Mera,

My honest opinion is that CO will follow a similar strategy next year and that the COD won't advance past your PD until Q4 FY2014.

But what would I know?

Spec,

CO has the habit of always surprising us,
so as Q believes CO might keep it at the same COD without retrogressing in oct ( thereby possibly consuming few thousands) and then make it unavailable for a while or do in any other way he pleases.

If CO knew about the actual usage and demand in real time in all the categories last few months, I still don't understand why he would wait till august to make any movement ( apart from the fact to prevent new filers from consuming any visas this fiscal and rather to allow for longest possible movement in sept)

There are quite a few who are still reeling from the frenzy of 2012 and hoping that its not repeated this time again

[Vkkpnm]

Viz,Q,Spec...: I and few more guys are really curious to know if you guys can predict how much dates will be retrogressed in Oct or Dec? Appreciate you response on this. Please let us know if that cannot be predicted now due to lack of data/uncertainty.

[garihc27]

i doubt anybody on the forum could answer your question. You can try and see if Senator and Congressman can help you out. Good Luck!!!

Thanks I will contact my local Congressman and Senator. In addition does anyone have any recommendations on going through the case status appeal at DOL, http://www.dol.gov/appeals/case_status.htm
or taking an extreme step such as filing federal writ of mandamus lawsuit for delay against the DOL.

I am considering all possible options since I don't want to miss this window of opportunity again.

Thanks!

[Spectator]

Viz,Q,Spec...: I and few more guys are really curious to know if you guys can predict how much dates will be retrogressed in Oct or Dec? Appreciate you response on this. Please let us know if that cannot be predicted now due to lack of data/uncertainty.Vkkpnm,

I don't think there is enough data to say. I'll give you some thoughts, but not a prediction.

Essentially, it will still be a Supply/Demand equation.

On the Supply side, the conventional view would be that normal allocations apply in October. That would be 9% of 2,803 - 252 visas.

It's also possible that CO could use the full quarter's allocation of 27% of 2,803 - 757 visas, by borrowing from other Categories.

But overall, he is actually only bound by 27% of total EB visas in the first quarter, which would give a monthly allotment of 12,600 for EB1- EB5 in October. If a Category was particularly slow, he has the option to temporarily increase the number to another Category. That would be a judgement call, because he could not know that in advance from the information supplied by USCIS.

So, the number that could be available is not a known quantity.

The Demand also has a number of variables.

If visas were to run out part way way through September, cases would still be pre-adjudicated for the rest of September and become Demand for October.

Considering the large forward movement in September for EB2-I and EB3-I and the need to also process pending EB3-ROW/C/M cases that are Current, I think USCIS have an awful lot of cases to deal with in September. The chances of visas running out early might well be less because of that.

The movement in the COD almost certainly contains a contingency and a number of EB2-I cases are not going to get approved. Virtually all of those will already be pre-adjudicated and be in the Demand going into October.

During October, additional demand is also going to be added as cases are adjudicated.


The simple equation is if October Demand for the COD of 15JUL08 is likely to be more than the Supply of visas available in October, the COD must retrogress. Where the retrogression is to, would be determined by the PD makeup of the Demand. I don't think it is possible to know that makeup at the time the October COD is set.

Finally, the October COD will be determined in early September, when a good determination may not be possible.

The danger of not retrogressing, then assessing the actual Demand, is that EB2-I may (and probably would) use too many visas in October. If that happens, the danger is that subsequent retrogression is likely to be far worse than it otherwise would have been.

Overall, I see more reasons to retrogress in October, even if only temporarily, than to leave the COD at 15JUL08.

Only if all possible cases were approved by the end of September, would leaving the COD untouched in October be a relatively safe bet IMO.

[Spectator]

Spec,

CO has the habit of always surprising us,
so as Q believes CO might keep it at the same COD without retrogressing in oct ( thereby possibly consuming few thousands) and then make it unavailable for a while or do in any other way he pleases.indiani,

That is a possible strategy, if there are sufficient numbers available form other Categories. I agree it would probably have to be made Unavailable for a period, or heavily retrogressed if that were the case.

Do you really want to see EB2-I become Unavailable for a period in FY2014?

I think that is a very depressing thought.