EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[inspired_p]

I think, rule of thumb needs to be updated to PD+6 years. Viz, we would be lucky if we get greened by Aug 2014 (PD + 6).

As spec explained in prevous posts, outlook for 2014 isn't really great. All traditional sources for SO are drying up and without legislative relief, PD+7 isn't unlikely in near future.

I gather when you say Summer or end of FY2015 that is April- sept 2015 .

That is really bleak prediction. I hope the dates become current before that even if CO wants to retrogress them again. Most of us would be happy with EAD/AP status for 2 years rather than getting a GC in quick 4 months after 2 years.
I dont see why they can't just get all the applications in and take their own sweet time adjudicating the GC applications

Regards

[SenorMeow]

<snip>

Porting cases cannot be shown under EB2 until the PD under EB2 is Current (although some people differ in this opinion). Therefore, for cases that completed the interfiling process after May 2012 with a PD after August 2004, the date has never been Current under EB2 again and they do not currently form part of the EB2 Demand.

That will change on August 1, 2013. But since they will be Current, if they are adjudicated and a visa is requested, it will be immediately available, the case can be approved and it will not appear in the Demand Data published monthly. Only when the dates retrogress again and a visa can not be allocated when requested, will the case appear in the Demand Data.

I'm sure that is clear as mud.

You are absolutely right about porting cases not showing up in EB2 demand on the DOS side. USCIS, however, appears to have acquired the capability to convert EB3 applications to EB2 internally even though the PD is not current - despite what the AFM says. The agency is acting on interfiling requests and moving the applications to pending EB2 inventory (multiple Trackitt reports, personal experience)

I've always thought that a request for visa number had to be made or was generated automatically as soon as the converted application was flagged as pre-adjudicated in the new category, which would make it impossible to convert when the dates are not current. Perhaps they now have a way to add them without requesting a visa number, and pull up pre-adjudicated applications that haven't had a visa number requested for them when the dates become current. Or maybe it's just my beer fueled wishful thinking...

Anyhow, would you expect a reduction in EB3 DOS demand to happen immediately when USCIS reclassifies the EB3 applications as EB2, since they are effectively 'withdrawn' from a DOS standpoint? It would be interesting to see the reduction in EB3 demand data next month if that were the case, since it should provide a fairly accurate overall porting number. Thoughts?

[Spectator]

You are absolutely right about porting cases not showing up in EB2 demand on the DOS side. USCIS, however, appears to have acquired the capability to convert EB3 applications to EB2 internally even though the PD is not current - despite what the AFM says. The agency is acting on interfiling requests and moving the applications to pending EB2 inventory (multiple Trackitt reports, personal experience)

I've always thought that a request for visa number had to be made or was generated automatically as soon as the converted application was flagged as pre-adjudicated in the new category, which would make it impossible to convert when the dates are not current. Perhaps they now have a way to add them without requesting a visa number, and pull up pre-adjudicated applications that haven't had a visa number requested for them when the dates become current. Or maybe it's just my beer fueled wishful thinking...

Anyhow, would you expect a reduction in EB3 DOS demand to happen immediately when USCIS reclassifies the EB3 applications as EB2, since they are effectively 'withdrawn' from a DOS standpoint? It would be interesting to see the reduction in EB3 demand data next month if that were the case, since it should provide a fairly accurate overall porting number. Thoughts?The AFM only says the conversion of the basis of the I-485 cannot take place until the new Category is Current. That IMO opinion is the request for a visa under EB2 and approval.

The rest of the process that people call interfiling can still take place. The A-file can be consolidated with the all the information, an RFE can be raised for a written request from the applicant to be considered under EB2 when the dates become Current and the I-485 can be checked for any issues that need resolving for it to remain pre-adjudicated. There seems to be plenty of evidence that is happening. The case may even be filed in the staging area under EB2.

USCIS don't appear to be reflecting the new Category in their own Inventory - the April Inventory figures were fairly close to the Demand Data published around the same time.

CO has said, that for a time, the case will be shown under both EB2 and EB3. I have no idea how quickly the EB3 case disappears from the EB3 demand and how that is accomplished. Indiani has some slides from a recent AILA conference that mentioned it - perhaps they shed more light on the subject. Previously it has been reported:


Mr. Oppenheim confirmed his previous comments that both cases for a person remain open (so it looks like two numbers are being used) if a person is upgrading from EB-3 to EB-2, and only when the green card is approved does the duplicate file number go away.

so there does appear to be some automation of the process.

People have previously thought the reduction in EB3 Demand would give some sort of handle on porting numbers. So far that hasn't really worked out. We'll just have to see if it is better this year. I've pretty much given up hope that the porting numbers can be calculated in any meaningful way from the figures available.

I'm not going to pretend I know how the system operates for porting cases, there isn't sufficient information to do that.

[PD2008AUG25]

i agree in theory. Although if last year wasn't such as cluster in terms of random approvals, our PD would have been current this year. So for now I'm still sticking with PD+5 with a bearish outlook.

My understanding was, most of the lucky people who got GCs with PDs between 1 Jan 2008 and 31 Dec 2008 were mostly in earlier part of 2008. If that's true, we wouldn't be in much different place than where we are now. Final movement will still be off by 1-2 months, but not much.

What really scares me is potential lack of SOFADs in 2014. If FY 2013 ends somewhere in Feb-March 2008, It will require 6-7k EB2 + 4-5k porters(for fy 2014) = 10-12k visas for Aug 2008 to clear. With no FB spillover, and other things being similar to FY 2013, we could be very well waiting till Aug 2015.

[vizcard]

My understanding was, most of the lucky people who got GCs with PDs between 1 Jan 2008 and 31 Dec 2008 were mostly in earlier part of 2008. If that's true, we wouldn't be in much different place than where we are now. Final movement will still be off by 1-2 months, but not much.

What really scares me is potential lack of SOFADs in 2014. If FY 2013 ends somewhere in Feb-March 2008, It will require 6-7k EB2 + 4-5k porters(for fy 2014) = 10-12k visas for Aug 2008 to clear. With no FB spillover, and other things being similar to FY 2013, we could be very well waiting till Aug 2015.

Maybe I'm being optimistic here but I don't know if there are 4-5K porters left between 2004 and wherever we end up this year (after we get done with this round). So if CO doesn't move dates again till July 2014, then you still have new porters who have to file and deal with the 485 processing lead time. Regardless, I think we'll have enough SOFAD to get to Oct 2008 if not Dec 2008. I believe we should get around 15k SOFAD next year (incl normal quota) ofcourse there is no mathematical basis for it YET.


I gather when you say Summer or end of FY2015 that is April- sept 2015 .

That is really bleak prediction. I hope the dates become current before that even if CO wants to retrogress them again. Most of us would be happy with EAD/AP status for 2 years rather than getting a GC in quick 4 months after 2 years.
I dont see why they can't just get all the applications in and take their own sweet time adjudicating the GC applications

Regards

There's two ways to accomplish that.
1. Move the dates way in to the future (or C) so that people can file their 485s and EADs. But the risk here is of random approvals and over-allocating (basically what happened last year).
2. My preferred method - allow concurrent filing with I140 and approve as dates get current. Ofcourse this is a much bigger change and possibly needs legislative approval

Long story, short - ain't goint to happen any time soon

[natvyas]

Spec

Do you plan to update your forecast for this FY before the next VB is released?

The reason I ask is because the PERM certifications for EB2 ROW has slowed down considerably and I was wondering if it will have any bearing on the COD.

Regards
Nat

[civilengineer]

With my June 19, 2008 PD, I am feeling less confident that I will be able to file for EAD this year. One thing I am wondering about for next year is, what is the outlook on EB-5 spillover? This year, I thought it did not yield any spillover because of the Ski-resort they are building in Vermont, but is there high demand projected even next year for EB-5?
http://goo.gl/lzKkq

[Spectator]

Spec

Do you plan to update your forecast for this FY before the next VB is released?

The reason I ask is because the PERM certifications for EB2 ROW has slowed down considerably and I was wondering if it will have any bearing on the COD.

Regards
NatNat,

I wasn't planning to since I still think the ending COD will be somewhere in the range I have already mentioned. The dates in the August VB moved pretty much as I expected.

I still think the best case is around 01APR08.

The slowdown in PERM processing is pushing more cases into being FY2014 approvals. It has certainly reduced the number I originally thought EB2-WW might get approved this FY, but one way or another I think that is still reflected in the prediction range. EB2-WW appear to have sufficient cases already in the system to reach their allocation for the FY. Originally, I could see a scenario where reaching a 2008 COD might not have been possible if EB2-WW had particularly high approvals, even if it might have been unsaid.

Other unknown factors, such as EB1 approval level and porting numbers represent significant uncertainties as well. I think they might ultimately have a bigger effect if I have misjudged them (and essentially that is no more than an educated guess).

I think I will just leave the prediction unchanged.

[Spectator]

With my June 19, 2008 PD, I am feeling less confident that I will be able to file for EAD this year. One thing I am wondering about for next year is, what is the outlook on EB-5 spillover? This year, I thought it did not yield any spillover because of the Ski-resort they are building in Vermont, but is there high demand projected even next year for EB-5?
http://goo.gl/lzKkqcivilengineer,

CO recently said that he thought EB5 will use approx 9k visas this year.

That is despite some fairly major problems that have led to lower adjudications than expected.

The underlying demand (based on I-526 submitted and adjudication times) is such that we should not expect any spillover from EB5 in the next few years. The number of pending I-526 increased by 65% in the period April 2012 to April 2013 (the latest figure available). An I-526 takes approx a year for a decision to be taken on it.

[av1130]

This is my first post in this wonderful forum. I have been reading this for years now and now I have to make a very important decision based on what you experts think about priority date movement in the near future. Is it possible that my PD of May 23, 2008 (EB2 India) will be current in FY 2014? In other words, can i expect to get my GC by Aug/Sep 2014?

I have my EAD/AP and based on what you feel, I have to take a very important decision of switching jobs using AC 21. If there is a possibility that I can my GC next year, I will stick to my current job. If not, I will change to a new one.

Thanks in advance.

[JackD1]

civilengineer,

CO recently said that he thought EB5 will use approx 9k visas this year.

That is despite some fairly major problems that have led to lower adjudications than expected.

The underlying demand (based on I-526 submitted and adjudication times) is such that we should not expect any spillover from EB5 in the next few years. The number of pending I-526 increased by 65% in the period April 2012 to April 2013 (the latest figure available). An I-526 takes approx a year for a decision to be taken on it.

Hello Spec,

Could you please take a look at the questions i've asked when you get a chance please. Thanks a lot ...

[Pedro Gonzales]

This is my first post in this wonderful forum. I have been reading this for years now and now I have to make a very important decision based on what you experts think about priority date movement in the near future. Is it possible that my PD of May 23, 2008 (EB2 India) will be current in FY 2014? In other words, can i expect to get my GC by Aug/Sep 2014?

I have my EAD/AP and based on what you feel, I have to take a very important decision of switching jobs using AC 21. If there is a possibility that I can my GC next year, I will stick to my current job. If not, I will change to a new one.

Thanks in advance.

Summarizing the gurus, I think you are very likely (65%) to get your GC 12 months from now. There is a small chance (15%) that you will get it in the next 2 months, but a very real chance (20%) that it may get pushed out 2 years or more (in a scenario where EB1 & EB5 supply fill up each year, EB3 ROW to EB2 ROW porting eats up all EB2 supply, and EB3I porting takes up all normal EB2I supply).

My recommendation would be to wait until Aug 10th (better still Sep 10th), and if dates retrogress without crossing your PD, make the move immediately. AC21 is well established and as long as the new job is stable and willing to provide an employment verification letter (EVL), there is no reason not to use it.

[vizcard]

Summarizing the gurus, I think you are very likely (65%) to get your GC 12 months from now. There is a small chance (15%) that you will get it in the next 2 months, but a very real chance (20%) that it may get pushed out 2 years or more (in a scenario where EB1 & EB5 supply fill up each year, EB3 ROW to EB2 ROW porting eats up all EB2 supply, and EB3I porting takes up all normal EB2I supply).

My recommendation would be to wait until Aug 10th (better still Sep 10th), and if dates retrogress without crossing your PD, make the move immediately. AC21 is well established and as long as the new job is stable and willing to provide an employment verification letter (EVL), there is no reason not to use it.

Completely agree with this approach. I do believe that May will definitely be current next year. I don't see why we wouldnt have 9000 SOFAD to cross May. The only reason we didn't get any FA this year was because EB2WW had a COD last year. As long as they stay current, we'll get some FA from them. EB1 is a wild card. If they stay on track, we'll get very little from there. But regardless, we'll hit cover May for sure.

PS: Pedro - looks like you might be on the cusp this year. If not this year, you and I can celebrate next year (I hope :) )

[Guest123]

Completely agree with this approach. I do believe that May will definitely be current next year. I don't see why we wouldnt have 9000 SOFAD to cross May. The only reason we didn't get any FA this year was because EB2WW had a COD last year. As long as they stay current, we'll get some FA from them. EB1 is a wild card. If they stay on track, we'll get very little from there. But regardless, we'll hit cover May for sure.

PS: Pedro - looks like you might be on the cusp this year. If not this year, you and I can celebrate next year (I hope :) )

Hi

My PD is Mar 7 2008 - NSC. I will be travelling out of country from Aug 8 - Aug 22. Not sure if this date would be current in Sep 2013, if any RFE will be issued between Aug 8 - 22. Most of the RFEs seem to be EVL related. If it is EVL type of RFE, I assume i can submit the response during Aug 8 - 22. Can you please advise what things i should be taking care for the Aug 8 - 22 window when i will be out of the country.

Thank you !!

[Pedro Gonzales]

Viz, I fully expect the FY to end at 4/25/2012 thereby giving my wife an opportunity to constantly remind me for another 12 months about my procrastination back in 2007.

[MeraGC1]

Gurus,
As per trackitt, someone with a PD of 7/23/2008 got an RFE today from NSC.
http://www.trackitt.com/member/gcsnvle

When USCIS has so many pending 485 applications, why would they work on July 2008 case? Does this mean they are planning to move the dates to July 2008?

Moderator: Please remove the trackitt link if it is inappropriate

[Pedro Gonzales]

Hi

My PD is Mar 7 2008 - NSC. I will be travelling out of country from Aug 8 - Aug 22. Not sure if this date would be current in Sep 2013, if any RFE will be issued between Aug 8 - 22. Most of the RFEs seem to be EVL related. If it is EVL type of RFE, I assume i can submit the response during Aug 8 - 22. Can you please advise what things i should be taking care for the Aug 8 - 22 window when i will be out of the country.

Thank you !!

a) Call your lawyer to make sure that the your addresses (both yours and his address) are updated.
b) Make sure sms and email alerts are both on at the USCIS website.
b) Give your mailbox key to a friend so you can ask him to check your mail in case you get an RFE in between that period.

Other than that, I don't think you need to be worrying about anything right now.

[vizcard]

Viz, I fully expect the FY to end at 4/25/2012 thereby giving my wife an opportunity to constantly remind me for another 12 months about my procrastination back in 2007.

I hear u brother...same here.

[newguy]

I am with a PD of SEP 2008.. Any chances of getting greened in in FY 2014.. its very confusing

[desitiger]

Gurus,
As per trackitt, someone with a PD of 7/23/2008 got an RFE today from NSC.
http://www.trackitt.com/member/gcsnvle

When USCIS has so many pending 485 applications, why would they work on July 2008 case? Does this mean they are planning to move the dates to July 2008?

Moderator: Please remove the trackitt link if it is inappropriate

Not sure what to make of it but I hope this is some positive indication.

[Guest123]

a) Call your lawyer to make sure that the your addresses (both yours and his address) are updated.
b) Make sure sms and email alerts are both on at the USCIS website.
b) Give your mailbox key to a friend so you can ask him to check your mail in case you get an RFE in between that period.

Other than that, I don't think you need to be worrying about anything right now.

Hi

Regarding a) what address are you referring to - US or out of the country address and where should it be updated incase there is no change in the US address for myself or the lawyer? Could you please clarify.

[Spectator]

Hello Spec,

Could you please take a look at the questions i've asked when you get a chance please. Thanks a lot ...I think there are better people than me on the forum to answer your questions.

[seattlet]

From the past movements, we can see that cutoff dates are mostly set to either 1st,8th,15th or 22nd of a month. (weekly movement)
and since 2008 has around 1500 485s per month, it can very well end up in any one of those dates for mar / Apr / may 2008

[Pedro Gonzales]

Hi

Regarding a) what address are you referring to - US or out of the country address and where should it be updated incase there is no change in the US address for myself or the lawyer? Could you please clarify.

I mean your US address. The USCIS has no need for your Indian address unless you're using CP (which you aren't). If you move you need to fill out the AR11 form and call a number for them to link your application to it. Your lawyer usually does it for you, but some people choose to do it themselves because it's easy and this way you're sure it's done right. Also, ask the lawyer if he's moved, and if so, has he updated his address with the USCIS (not sure what form he'd have to fill out). We often hear about cases where both lawyer and petitioner have moved, and they can't get a hold of the physical RFE letter.

https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?action=coa&localeLang=en

[Guest123]

I mean your US address. The USCIS has no need for your Indian address unless you're using CP (which you aren't). If you move you need to fill out the AR11 form and call a number for them to link your application to it. Your lawyer usually does it for you, but some people choose to do it themselves because it's easy and this way you're sure it's done right. Also, ask the lawyer if he's moved, and if so, has he updated his address with the USCIS (not sure what form he'd have to fill out). We often hear about cases where both lawyer and petitioner have moved, and they can't get a hold of the physical RFE letter.

https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?action=coa&localeLang=en

Hi

My US address and the lawyers is still the same. Haven't moved. I am only going to be travelling and will be out of country between Aug 8 - 22.

[inspired_p]

There's two ways to accomplish that.
1. Move the dates way in to the future (or C) so that people can file their 485s and EADs. But the risk here is of random approvals and over-allocating (basically what happened last year).
2. My preferred method - allow concurrent filing with I140 and approve as dates get current. Ofcourse this is a much bigger change and possibly needs legislative approval

Long story, short - ain't goint to happen any time soon


Thanks viz. But i don't understand why you say "random approvals"- once I-485 are current , USCIS do not and never have approved cases on a priority date basis once the cutoff date is determined. Or am I wrong in this statement.

Either ways - i feel option 1 a lot better considering the cons - i.e. approvals not based on priority date basis.I wish it happens next year as well. :D

[inspired_p]

Hi JackD1,
I will try to answer your questions but with a disclaimer - i do not have first hand knowledge and i am not a lawyer.


Hello everyone,

I recently came across this forum and i will have to say, it is one of the very informative, to the point and one of the most civil forums i have seen. Now i am kind of addicted to it and check it every day. :)
I wanted to present my situation and see if any the experts here can enlighten me --

My PD is 08/04/2008, EB2I, Applied 485 in 04/2012, Renewed EAD in 02/2013 and now EAD is valid till 02/2015. I have been working as a consultant since my first H1 and just switched my employer and recently joined another consultant. Now my H1 is renewed till 05/2016 and my lawyer filed AC21 last week.

The project i am working on right now is a full time/work from home. But in actuality there is not much work. I am in support job and if no projects are going on then i have max of 15-20 hours of actual work every week.

When you renewed your H1 with your new employer that means you are on H1-B status still.You need to be fully employed. As i see it , you may work 15 hours a week but you should get paid in correspondence to the LCA and H1B salary expectation


1) What are the chances of me getting my GC in FY2014 if not in 2013 ?
Better people to answer this question

2) Do you know if it would be ok to take on another job (if i find another work from home position ?)
Yes you can using your EAD take up another job

3) If answer to (2) is yes, then would it have to be a consulting position (so that i am with the same employer) ? or i can join another company as full time employee/or consultant using my EAD ?
If you use your EAD to leave the current employment and join another company then it has to be in the field. If you decide to take up additional job or start a business on the side , that doesn't need to be related to your current job description

3) I asked my employer about finding another project for me and whether it would be ok to work on 2 projects and he said that they will have to file another LCA for the new position and then i can on multiple positions. But i am trying to find out if i can join another company as full time employee on EAD as i am sick of paying 20% to my employer and want to join the vendor directly so i can get higher billing rate for myself.

Why you are still working on H1B, once you have your EAD/AP? Unless your spouse missed the boat and you need to file H4, it is better to start working on EAD/AP (my personal opinion), then you would not need any additional LCA /H1B amendments to take up additional projects

You can alway move to a different employer for the job under same job criteria under the AC21 rule. I do not think H1B application is needed at all(as you have mentioned your new employer applied H1B for you)

Thanks a lot and i really appreciate your help.

[desitiger]

I have a quick question guys and my apologies in advance for going on a tangent. I think this thread has some of the most knowledgeable folks when it comes to immigration matters that is why I am posting here.

Here is a scenario:
If someone with 2008 April PD under EB3-I (needless to say has never file I-485) ports to EB2I and April 2008 PD is reflected on new I-140. When this person files for I-485 does he/she needs to provide any additional documents for change from EB3 to EB2. I am assuming interfiling is not going to be applicable here?

Thanks,

[Pedro Gonzales]

Hi JackD1,
I will try to answer your questions but with a disclaimer - i do not have first hand knowledge and i am not a lawyer.

JackD1, to add to inspired_p's comments
Your chances of a GC in FY2014 are quite decent.
If you leave your current employment and decide to work on your EAD, do look into the minimum hours requirement. I think you still need to meet the 40 hr work week requirement, but I'm not sure.

[MATT2012]

I have a quick question guys and my apologies in advance for going on a tangent. I think this thread has some of the most knowledgeable folks when it comes to immigration matters that is why I am posting here.

Here is a scenario:
If someone with 2008 April PD under EB3-I (needless to say has never file I-485) ports to EB2I and April 2008 PD is reflected on new I-140. When this person files for I-485 does he/she needs to provide any additional documents for change from EB3 to EB2. I am assuming interfiling is not going to be applicable here?

Thanks,

it is a new I-485 and one should provide all needed documentation. No additional documentation is required. Some attorneys prefer to keep a copy of the old I-140 also, though not mandatory. In your case PD retention process is complete.

Interfiling applies only in the case of an existing I-485 application and when one changes the base application that supports I-485.

[Sirisha]

Hi,

My brother had EB3 march 2006, He ported to EB2. He got 140 approved.He applied for 485 in 2007, Now as the dates are current in August, does he need to file 485 again?
His lawyer says that no need to file 485 or any thing. But, I would like to know whether he need to follow any procedure or wait just like that.

Thank you!

[rferni]

Can one or more experts please help me understand this cumulative demand data? This is what I gathered from DOS Demand Data releases between October 2012 and July 2013 for EB2 India.

The cutoff date for EB2-India has been set at 09/01/2004 starting October 2012 thru July 2013, so no one should be able to file new I-485 applications in this category this entire time - so how did the cumulative demand increase by 2,250 for priority dates prior to Jan 1 2008 within this same time frame? Are these EB3-I porters with cutoff dates prior to August 2007 who already have I-485s on file and have somehow requested an 'upgrade' while their priority dates were still not current?

Appreciate some insight from the experts.

[natvyas]

Spec

Some weeks ago, after mass RFEs were issued, you had put together a graph showing the RFEs by PD date. Could you please direct me to that data and also advise if you have an updated version? With a PD date of 24th March 08, I'm hanging my hat on that data.

Regards
Nat

[Kanmani]

Hi,

My brother had EB3 march 2006, He ported to EB2. He got 140 approved.He applied for 485 in 2007, Now as the dates are current in August, does he need to file 485 again?
His lawyer says that no need to file 485 or any thing. But, I would like to know whether he need to follow any procedure or wait just like that.

Thank you!

Sirisha,

Your brother doesn't need to file a second I-485 . But, the existing I-485 must be linked to the newly approved EB2 I-140. Please check with the attorney if he has already taken care of that step. (otherwise known as interfiling)

[Spectator]

Spec

Some weeks ago, after mass RFEs were issued, you had put together a graph showing the RFEs by PD date. Could you please direct me to that data and also advise if you have an updated version? With a PD date of 24th March 08, I'm hanging my hat on that data.

Regards
NatNat,

I think the latest version is Here.

I haven't revisited it since then.

[indiani]

In the AILA conference one of the presenter said august 2008 instead of " jan 2008 in august bulletin" ( which was immediately corrected by the other presenter ) and some attorneys probably didn't pay attention and got carried away by that.

Going beyond may 1st will be huge surprise. ( even though I hope it should )

[natvyas]

Did any of the presenters provide a hint for the COD date?

[indiani]

Did any of the presenters provide a hint for the COD date?

They just said jan 2008 for august bulletin, not a word about September at AILA

[natvyas]

I just noticed in Trackitt that the EB2 ROW approvals for July (primary applicant only) is 8 compared to 51 for April, 41 for May and 40 for June. Given that 17 days have elapsed in the month. Is this trend with an underlying theme?

Regards
Nat

[MATT2012]

I just noticed in Trackitt that the EB2 ROW approvals for July (primary applicant only) is 8 compared to 51 for April, 41 for May and 40 for June. Given that 17 days have elapsed in the month. Is this trend with an underlying theme?

Regards
Nat

Yes, the approvals numbers are low for EB2ROW and there are few more approvals in EB2 NIW. if the trend continues into second half of July, it may have a marginal impact in date movement. Trackitt do have enough pending cases to support more approvals. But overall EB2 ROW approvals started to slow down from June.

[JackD1]

JackD1, to add to inspired_p's comments
Your chances of a GC in FY2014 are quite decent.
If you leave your current employment and decide to work on your EAD, do look into the minimum hours requirement. I think you still need to meet the 40 hr work week requirement, but I'm not sure.

Thanks inspired_p and Pedro for you response. I guess i just got my H1 renewed for backup case (in case something goes wrong with my GC application). So i was trying to find out if 2 full time jobs can be done (1 on H1 and 1 on EAD, different employers), but i think that is not possible.

I am only talking about the jobs in my field so i am not worried about that. So, if i join another company as full time employee on EAD, i am guessing my H1 will be invalidated but i can still keep on working for current employer on EAD at the same time. Do we need to notify USCIS that we will not be working on H1 and switching to EAD ?

[Sirisha]

Sirisha,

Your brother doesn't need to file a second I-485 . But, the existing I-485 must be linked to the newly approved EB2 I-140. Please check with the attorney if he has already taken care of that step. (otherwise known as interfiling)

Thank you Kanmani!

[indiani]

I just noticed in Trackitt that the EB2 ROW approvals for July (primary applicant only) is 8 compared to 51 for April, 41 for May and 40 for June. Given that 17 days have elapsed in the month. Is this trend with an underlying theme?

Regards
Nat

They might be busy pre-adjudicating 8k+ cases of eb2I :)

Moreover CO might want to " save enough numbers" to make sure all eb2I cases cleared until atleast feb 2008. JK..

[PD2008AUG25]

I gather when you say Summer or end of FY2015 that is April- sept 2015 .

That is really bleak prediction. I hope the dates become current before that even if CO wants to retrogress them again. Most of us would be happy with EAD/AP status for 2 years rather than getting a GC in quick 4 months after 2 years.
I dont see why they can't just get all the applications in and take their own sweet time adjudicating the GC applications

Regards

CO doesn't make category current until absolute demand drops to low hundreds. Current Eb2I demand is around 43k. At the end of FY 2013, demand will be anywhere between 30k - 35k, not including porters. Even if you assume liberally that it will only take 2 FYs to satisfy current demand, it should be sometime in FY 2016 when any major forward movement is made.

[desitiger]

Is everyone on this thread in a consensus that there will be movement in next bulletin or is it going to hold steady at Jan 2008.

[bvsamrat]

That has been my doubt all along? how the demand number increased specially before 08 and also slight drop in post 2008


Can one or more experts please help me understand this cumulative demand data? This is what I gathered from DOS Demand Data releases between October 2012 and July 2013 for EB2 India.

The cutoff date for EB2-India has been set at 09/01/2004 starting October 2012 thru July 2013, so no one should be able to file new I-485 applications in this category this entire time - so how did the cumulative demand increase by 2,250 for priority dates prior to Jan 1 2008 within this same time frame? Are these EB3-I porters with cutoff dates prior to August 2007 who already have I-485s on file and have somehow requested an 'upgrade' while their priority dates were still not current?

Appreciate some insight from the experts.

[vizcard]

Is everyone on this thread in a consensus that there will be movement in next bulletin or is it going to hold steady at Jan 2008.

The consensus is that there will be some movement. There is a fairly wide range in terms of how much but its anywhere from 1 month to 6 months. My personal opinion is that we will end at March 1, 2008. That would clear another 3000 or so demand (almost certainly all will be original EB2 pre-adjudicated demand).

Also, IMO (and I know there are others who disagree), that dates will retrogress in the Oct VB itself probably to Jan 1 2006.

[eb2visa]

USCIS Service Center EB-485 Processing Volume Update at the End of May 2013

TSC NSC National
Pending 25,055 20,716
Preadjudicated 52,330 43,877 96,247
Customer Action Wait 2,419 15,593
Completed 7,704 12,504
New Receipt 8,263 9,713

USCIS Service Center I-140 Processing Volume Update at the End of May 2013

TSC NSC National
Pending 6,799 3,053 9,907

Customer Action Wait 1,453 3,120 4,573
Completed 3,548 3,637 7,186
New Receipt 3,365 2,191 5,556

From: oh law "www.immigration-law.com"

[indiani]

Does uscis approve cases on Saturdays and evening ?

previously I have seen email about change in the application coming in the evening and I have seen posts on trackitt about satuday approvals.

if they move in "high gear", my guess is most applications should be approved by mid-august ( pre-adjudicated ones )

[longwait100]

You are correct indiani, I recollect people getting approved on Saturdays last year.

Well, its another 2 weeks from today and we will find out how things go this time!

[axialtilt]

The consensus is that there will be some movement. There is a fairly wide range in terms of how much but its anywhere from 1 month to 6 months. My personal opinion is that we will end at March 1, 2008. That would clear another 3000 or so demand (almost certainly all will be original EB2 pre-adjudicated demand).

Also, IMO (and I know there are others who disagree), that dates will retrogress in the Oct VB itself probably to Jan 1 2006.

Please don't say March 1,2008! My PD is March 18, 2008. Missed the bus last time, need at least an EAD badly now. I am sick of H1B now. If miss the PD this month, I have to wait 10 or 11 months for the dates to move there again.

[indiani]

Please don't say March 1,2008! My PD is March 18, 2008. Missed the bus last time, need at least an EAD badly now. I am sick of H1B now. If miss the PD this month, I have to wait 10 or 11 months for the dates to move there again.

may 1st is possible , so just hope for the best and wait for bulletin, ( beyond that IMO unlikely, even though remotely possible )

march 1st is just the minimum movement

[pdmay2008]

may 1st is possible , so just hope for the best and wait for bulletin, ( beyond that IMO unlikely, even though remotely possible )

march 1st is just the minimum movement

How much is the pending known demand between Jan 1st 2008 and May 15th 2008?. My PD is May 8th 2008. I know my case is border line or remotely possible. I would like to know how much is the pending known demand. Last year few lucky ones from 2008 got approved which should have reduced the demand between Jan 2008 through Jun 2008.

[PD2008AUG25]

How much is the pending known demand between Jan 1st 2008 and May 15th 2008?. My PD is May 8th 2008. I know my case is border line or remotely possible. I would like to know how much is the pending known demand. Last year few lucky ones from 2008 got approved which should have reduced the demand between Jan 2008 through Jun 2008.

Roughly 5700 based on inventory data.

[eb2visa]

Just thinking out loud

There is no way to process all the RFEs by Aug 10th and may not be even Aug 31st. I would think EB2-I will reach China - Aug 2008. This is to make sure if some of the RFEs are not processed or Needed additional info or just to make sure all the numbers are utilized.

[pdmay2008]

CO has to find around 6000 additional numbers to reach May 15th 2008. Big question is did he use all the FB Spill over yet? Or is he watching demand in other categories to move the dates again in Sep 2013.

Why are EB2 ROW approvals slowed down, is this normal this time of the year based on history? Does it help EB2I in anyway in Sep 2013 Bulletin.

[vizcard]

Roughly 5700 based on inventory data.


CO has to find around 6000 additional numbers to reach May 15th 2008. Big question is did he use all the FB Spill over yet? Or is he watching demand in other categories to move the dates again in Sep 2013.

Why are EB2 ROW approvals slowed down, is this normal this time of the year based on history? Does it help EB2I in anyway in Sep 2013 Bulletin.

"known" demand i.e. from the demand data is approx 6500 (going by a density of 1450/ month).

i don't think he could have moved dates to Jan 1 ,2008 without already using the FB quota. There is some debate about whether or not he has used the FD from EB1 but my opinion is that most of it is already accounted for.

[desitiger]

"known" demand i.e. from the demand data is approx 6500 (going by a density of 1450/ month).

i don't think he could have moved dates to Jan 1 ,2008 without already using the FB quota. There is some debate about whether or not he has used the FD from EB1 but my opinion is that most of it is already accounted for.

So basically what you are saying that there cannot be any more movement this year in Sep bulletin?

[everydayout]

EB has received roughly 18K visa numbers from FB.
I think CO must use the original 140K allotted for EB. But Is he obligated to use all the FB numbers (18K or whatever is remaining) before Sep 30 2013?
If he doesn't use all the remaining FB numbers by Sep 30,2013, Will they go back to FB pool?

[pdmay2008]

"known" demand i.e. from the demand data is approx 6500 (going by a density of 1450/ month).

I don't think he could have moved dates to Jan 1 ,2008 without already using the FB quota. There is some debate about whether or not he has used the FD from EB1 but my opinion is that most of it is already accounted for.

I agree that he has used FB spill over to move dates to Jan 1,2008. But did he use 100% of available under FB spill over. I don't think so. He must be watching EB1 demand until next bulletin release to estimate approximate remaining numbers from FB Spill over(unused under EB1)that he can allocate to EB2I. That might not be huge number, but further movement is definitely possible.

[rferni]

So basically what you are saying that there cannot be any more movement this year in Sep bulletin?

From everything I have heard, read and calculated (somewhat) - appears there may be small movement. Fundamental assumptions are:
1. EB2ROW will be on target or slightly over its allocated annual quota of 34K
2. EB1, EB4 and EB5 will also come in on or around target of their annual quota

Which leaves the total spillover for EB2I to be around 10 - 13K (18K - whatever is consumed by EB2 China and EB3). We already know there's 8050 pre-approved I485s prior to Jan 1 2008 - some of them wont make it for RFEs, denials etc. and there will be an additional number of unknown interfiling upgrades from EB3.

Probably leaves room for an additional month or two ... if we're lucky :(

[GCKnowHow]

If the dependents are processed under F2 then will EB2 move faster? Or either way will we get that spilled over to EB? (may be a moot question, I got confused)

[willywonka]

So basically what you are saying that there cannot be any more movement this year in Sep bulletin?

My two cents...
I think Jan 1 2008 is very conservative and it was chosen anticipating a huge porting demand.
CO must have had a very good estimate of how much spillover is available for EB2I by the time August bulletin was released. Lets say that number is X. And knowing him, he would deduct 2k from it as a buffer just in case other EB categories have any unexpected raise in demand towards end of the FY.

Now what he wants is that X-2k to "comfortably" take care of 8k (known demand prior to 1 Jan 2008) Plus new demand (say Y, from porters that will materialize in August AND September). I am assuming here that he is very bullish about the porting demand. So if Y is the actual porting demand (I am sure he can talk to someone in USCIS to get an idea...their relation can't be as formal as they portray it to be), he would pad it with an additional 1k to be safe.

So what it boils down to is, (X-2k) >= 8k + (Y+1k)
In other words, X = 8k + Y + 3k

Now, if all the other EB categories perform as expected, and Y is close to what's anticipated, there should be 3k additional visas available. And these 3k will move EB2I comfortably to cover Feb 2008 in September. That's why CO said that Feb 2008 is the best case scenario.
If the other EB categories underperform (like EB2ROW is doing now) and/or Y is lower than anticipated, then EB2I will get more than 3k and dates will move into or beyond March.
If the other EB categories over-perform, and/or Y is higher than anticipated, then EB2I will stall at Jan 1 2008 or worse retrogress in September. This scenario doesn't seem probable.

[vizcard]

I agree that he has used FB spill over to move dates to Jan 1,2008. But did he use 100% of available under FB spill over. I don't think so. He must be watching EB1 demand until next bulletin release to estimate approximate remaining numbers from FB Spill over(unused under EB1)that he can allocate to EB2I. That might not be huge number, but further movement is definitely possible.

When I referred to FD from EB1, it includes the FB allocation for EB1. It is one bucket - its not split up as "regular EB1" and "FB EB1".


If the dependents are processed under F2 then will EB2 move faster? Or either way will we get that spilled over to EB? (may be a moot question, I got confused)

Dependents can only be processed under F2 IF they have applied under F2. Almost all EBs have applied for dependents with 485s. But theoretical yes, take out the dependents and EB moves faster. That's why there's been a push to remove dependents from the quota. That itself effectively doubles the GC quota.

[vizcard]

EB has received roughly 18K visa numbers from FB.
I think CO must use the original 140K allotted for EB. But Is he obligated to use all the FB numbers (18K or whatever is remaining) before Sep 30 2013?
If he doesn't use all the remaining FB numbers by Sep 30,2013, Will they go back to FB pool?

Good question. I dont know for sure if there is a reverse flow of unused EB visas (and they are now EB visas). CO has already said "available numbers for EB is 158K".... so he definitely "plans" to use 158k. With so much backlog, I can't see a scenario where he doesn't use all 158k

[Spectator]

Good question. I dont know for sure if there is a reverse flow of unused EB visas (and they are now EB visas). CO has already said "available numbers for EB is 158K".... so he definitely "plans" to use 158k. With so much backlog, I can't see a scenario where he doesn't use all 158kvizcard,

Unused EB visas are available to FB next year in exactly the same way as unused FB visas are available to EB the following year (INA 201(c)(3)(C)).

Unfortunately, due to the complicated way the FB allocation is arrived at, it would not give FB more then lowest figure allowed of 226,000.

[Spectator]

If the dependents are processed under F2 then will EB2 move faster? Or either way will we get that spilled over to EB? (may be a moot question, I got confused)It may, but only in the future.

a) An I-130 for the dependent under F2A can only be submitted after the primary I-485 has been approved.

b) The I-130 has to be approved before an I-485 based on it can be approved.

c) The Cut Off Date for F2A has to be Current for the PD of the I-130.

The best PD under F2A for most people is going to be in August 2013.

Even with fairly quick processing, the I-130 is not going to be approved until February 2014.

It then depends when F2A gets back to a COD of August 2013 or later. It is possible that the PD under EB2 may become Current earlier and people will choose to adjust under EB2 with a 2008/2009 PD, rather than under F2A with a 2013 PD.

I think it depends how far F2A retrogresses and then what the progress is from that point.

It is true that most of the spare FB extra visas this year were because of under-use in F2A last year (primarily Mexico it seemed). It is possible under-use may happen again this year if CO has left it too late to move the F2A COD, but the underlying numbers at DOS are around 200k, so their really should be none to waste.

[ggk189]

My two cents...
I think Jan 1 2008 is very conservative and it was chosen anticipating a huge porting demand.
CO must have had a very good estimate of how much spillover is available for EB2I by the time August bulletin was released. Lets say that number is X. And knowing him, he would deduct 2k from it as a buffer just in case other EB categories have any unexpected raise in demand towards end of the FY.

Now what he wants is that X-2k to "comfortably" take care of 8k (known demand prior to 1 Jan 2008) Plus new demand (say Y, from porters that will materialize in August AND September). I am assuming here that he is very bullish about the porting demand. So if Y is the actual porting demand (I am sure he can talk to someone in USCIS to get an idea...their relation can't be as formal as they portray it to be), he would pad it with an additional 1k to be safe.

So what it boils down to is, (X-2k) >= 8k + (Y+1k)
In other words, X = 8k + Y + 3k

Now, if all the other EB categories perform as expected, and Y is close to what's anticipated, there should be 3k additional visas available. And these 3k will move EB2I comfortably to cover Feb 2008 in September. That's why CO said that Feb 2008 is the best case scenario.
If the other EB categories underperform (like EB2ROW is doing now) and/or Y is lower than anticipated, then EB2I will get more than 3k and dates will move into or beyond March.
If the other EB categories over-perform, and/or Y is higher than anticipated, then EB2I will stall at Jan 1 2008 or worse retrogress in September. This scenario doesn't seem probable.


1. The number portrayed as 8k is close to two months old number when he has to analyze in Aug first week as this month because of no demand data we are still using the 8k figure mentioned in July DD
2. The number y , he would have received from uscis when he decided to move dwould have been would be one month back, as the first info on Jan 1 2008 was before last month aila meeting. So there will be some addition to that from y to y+Δy

Hoping that buffer of 1k would accommodate the increase

[indiani]

IMHO Jan 1st to May 1st is the range , I think we can expect ( with march 1st being average)

we can look at it several ways but most believe it falls within this range.

August will be an exciting as well as nerve-wrecking month ( I am sure people who will miss by about a month will feel terrible especially as it wont advance in October and they might end up waiting for another year )

[GCKnowHow]

It may, but only in the future......
Thanks Spec.

[KKKKKK]

Spec, Q, Matt, Indiani and other experts...

I could be thinking too much here but just want to get our opinion if my thinking is logical...
There has been a whole lot of discussion on how USCIS would process the pre-adjudicated applications...if its based on PD or RD. I think the conclusion was they are process by RD if the dates are current.

So here is my question, assume the date moves to 1st Apr 2008 in Sept as most of you are fairly confident of...and if it comes to a situation where the demand and the supply are very close...would you think the folks with PD date before Mar 15th have better chances than folks with PD after Mar 15th. Thats because the dates in Dec 2011 were moved until Mar 15 2008..and moved beyond Mar 15 2008 in Jan 2012. So all the folks before Mar 15th 2008 would have a RD of Dec 2011 and after Mar 15 2008 would have a RD of Jan 2012.


You are welcome to strike off my thinking and say that I am thinking too much...As you might have guessed by now my PD falls after Mar 15th 2008...


Cheers!!

[Kanmani]

If you are referring to the recent discussion on processing priority, the discussion was actually on fresh applications received by USCIS. There were disagreements and no unanimous conclusion reached.

Coming to the pre-adjudicated pending applications of retrogressed countries like India and China, the Visas are allocated strictly by priority date order. DoS will send the Visa authorization to USCIS, where it is handled by numerous adjudicators' to distribute them. If there is a delay in approval among same PD, it could be due to files handled by different adjudicators at different pace.

[suninphx]

From everything I have heard, read and calculated (somewhat) - appears there may be small movement. Fundamental assumptions are:
1. EB2ROW will be on target or slightly over its allocated annual quota of 34K
2. EB1, EB4 and EB5 will also come in on or around target of their annual quota

Which leaves the total spillover for EB2I to be around 10 - 13K (18K - whatever is consumed by EB2 China and EB3). We already know there's 8050 pre-approved I485s prior to Jan 1 2008 - some of them wont make it for RFEs, denials etc. and there will be an additional number of unknown interfiling upgrades from EB3.

Probably leaves room for an additional month or two ... if we're lucky :(

We should consider ourself lucky if EB2ROW consumes only 34 K or slightly over that. Estimates are as high as 43K on this forum.(My calculation is around 37-38K) If EB2ROW indeed consumes around 34 K( I consider that as remote possibility) then we are looking at ending this FY with PD much farther than Q1 2008.

[vizcard]

If you are referring to the recent discussion on processing priority, the discussion was actually on fresh applications received by USCIS. There were disagreements and no unanimous conclusion reached.

Coming to the pre-adjudicated pending applications of retrogressed countries like India and China, the Visas are allocated strictly by priority date order. DoS will send the Visa authorization to USCIS, where it is handled by numerous adjudicators' to distribute them. If there is a delay in approval among same PD, it could be due to files handled by different adjudicators at different pace.

thats absolutely right. Ofcourse there is no guarantee that it WILL be absolutely FIFO (as we saw last year). But given there is pending demand, it should by pretty close to FIFO.

[vizcard]

We should consider ourself lucky if EB2ROW consumes only 34 K or slightly over that. Estimates are as high as 43K on this forum.(My calculation is around 37-38K) If EB2ROW indeed consumes around 34 K( I consider that as remote possibility) then we are looking at ending this FY with PD much farther than Q1 2008.

I personally do not believe it will be 34K. My expectation is it will be around 40K (given the retrogression last year).

[rferni]

I personally do not believe it will be 34K. My expectation is it will be around 40K (given the retrogression last year).


Estimates are as high as 43K on this forum.(My calculation is around 37-38K)

Thanks - understood. Is there any available data that facilitates this estimation of EB ROW usage?

It sounds like if EB2 ROW consumes between 38K and 40K - and EB1, EB4 and EB5 consume their entire 'regular' quota (40K, 9.9K and 9.9K respectively), then the estimated spillover for EB2I is somewhere between 6.5K and 8.5K only? Perhaps I am calculating this incorrectly?

[suninphx]

Thanks - understood. Is there any available data that facilitates this estimation of EB ROW usage?

It sounds like if EB2 ROW consumes between 38K and 40K - and EB1, EB4 and EB5 consume their entire 'regular' quota (40K, 9.9K and 9.9K respectively), then the estimated spillover for EB2I is somewhere between 6.5K and 8.5K only? Perhaps I am calculating this incorrectly?

Check posts first page for calculation of other categories.

As far as 43 K consumption goes-theory(not mine) around that is EB2ROW is going to consume 15 month worth of visas. So 15*2800-2900/pm ~ 43000.

My personal opinion is EB2ROW consumption started trending down since quite sometime back - based solely on trackitt data (I485 receipts)/month. I had calculated based on receipts since Oct 2012 (when dates became current for EB2ROW). But I think Spec's opinion was that we should include data since Jun 2012 because lot of people 'brought forward' their I485 filing because dates were going to retrogress from Jul 12 onwards.

My only doubt with that theory was ( or may be I did not understood Spec's point completely) that how can people(in large number) bring forward I485 filing without a approved PERM. I can understand that may happen for few people but June 12 has unusually high EB2ROW I485 receipts on trackitt.

ASFAIK - Spec's calculation does not have 43K EB2ROW number but he guess he is camp which assumes high EB2ROW consumption this FY. (40k +)

HTH.

[MATT2012]

Check posts first page for calculation of other categories.

As far as 43 K consumption goes-theory(not mine) around that is EB2ROW is going to consume 15 month worth of visas. So 15*2800-2900/pm ~ 43000.

My personal opinion is EB2ROW consumption started trending down since quite sometime back - based solely on trackitt data (I485 receipts)/month. I had calculated based on receipts since Oct 2012 (when dates became current for EB2ROW). But I think Spec's opinion was that we should include data since Jun 2012 because lot of people 'brought forward' their I485 filing because dates were going to retrogress from Jul 12 onwards.

My only doubt with that theory was ( or may be I did not understood Spec's point completely) that how can people(in large number) bring forward I485 filing without a approved PERM. I can understand that may happen for few people but June 12 has unusually high EB2ROW I485 receipts on trackitt.

ASFAIK - Spec's calculation does not have 43K EB2ROW number but he guess he is camp which assumes high EB2ROW consumption this FY. (40k +)

HTH.

Majority of the I-485 EB2ROW approvals from first quarter of this fiscal (Oct 2012 to Dec 2012) were from I-485 receipts of last fiscal. There were some cases from October I-485 filers who got approval before December, but few.

[indiani]

If you are referring to the recent discussion on processing priority, the discussion was actually on fresh applications received by USCIS. There were disagreements and no unanimous conclusion reached.

Coming to the pre-adjudicated pending applications of retrogressed countries like India and China, the Visas are allocated strictly by priority date order. DoS will send the Visa authorization to USCIS, where it is handled by numerous adjudicators' to distribute them. If there is a delay in approval among same PD, it could be due to files handled by different adjudicators at different pace.

In practice they don't actually follow this FIFO once PD is current.

August 1st itself will give us the answer.

[Niksammy]

Coming to the pre-adjudicated pending applications of retrogressed countries like India and China, the Visas are allocated strictly by priority date order. DoS will send the Visa authorization to USCIS, where it is handled by numerous adjudicators' to distribute them. If there is a delay in approval among same PD, it could be due to files handled by different adjudicators at different pace.

Almost all the cases before 31 Dec 2006 for Eb2I will be porters whose dates were not current when they upgraded from Eb3 to Eb2 (let us assume that these people have already sent interfile letters and are pre-adjudicated). For 2007, we will have a mix of porters as well as original Eb2 applicants.

If visa for retrogressed countries like India and China are allocated strictly by priority date order, does it mean that USCIS will not approve i-485 for any original 2007 Eb2I applicants till they have processed all applicants till 2006 (these will be people upgrading from Eb3-Eb2)?

I remember Matt mentioning in one of his posts that USCIS takes close to 3 weeks to process interfile requests. Does it mean that there won't be much approvals for 2007 Eb2I till 3rd week of August (if USCIS has to process by order of priority date) OR do you think that USCIS will start approving original 2007 EB2I applicants immediately.

PLEASE NOTE THAT EB2 upgrades/porters till 2006 will most of the times have an earlier receipt date as compared to original 2007 Eb2I applicants.

[MATT2012]

Almost all the cases before 31 Dec 2006 for Eb2I will be porters whose dates were not current when they upgraded from Eb3 to Eb2 (let us assume that these people have already sent interfile letters and are pre-adjudicated). For 2007, we will have a mix of porters as well as original Eb2 applicants.

If visa for retrogressed countries like India and China are allocated strictly by priority date order, does it mean that USCIS will not approve i-485 for any original 2007 Eb2I applicants till they have processed all applicants till 2006 (these will be people upgrading from Eb3-Eb2)?

I remember Matt mentioning in one of his posts that USCIS takes close to 3 weeks to process interfile requests. Does it mean that there won't be much approvals for 2007 Eb2I till 3rd week of August (if USCIS has to process by order of priority date) OR do you think that USCIS will start approving original 2007 EB2I applicants immediately.

PLEASE NOTE THAT EB2 upgrades/porters till 2006 will most of the times have an earlier receipt date as compared to original 2007 Eb2I applicants.

Niksammy,

For all pre-adjudicated applicants currently in EB2I bucket before Jan1st,2008 visas are allocated during VB tabulation process. As Kanmani pointed out earlier, an adjudicating officer is not linked to those pre-adjudicated cases when visa gets allocated. During the month of August, adjudicating officers will pick up the files/boxes and issue GC in majority of the cases, in some cases they may request further evidence. Given the fact that USCIS is pro-actively issuing RFEs, the number of new RFE's should come down. As the file requires one final review before card production, it will depend upon the processing speed of the particular officer. From an external point of view, we may see a Dec 31,2007 case getting approved before Sep, 2004. That pattern will continue through the month. Kanmani point was Pre-adjudicated cases getting visa allocated is in PD order not USCIS issuing cards. I hope, I explained the difference well enough.

There are some cases before 2007 who are already pre-adjudicated under EB2, those may be porters before June, 2012.

My three week estimate was for interfile applications submitted from June 2012 until now. The last approval of an interfile application in trackitt took exactly three weeks from interfile date. The interfile cases technically should be processed in application order, but again there is a huge dependency on individual officers.

[kpt112107]

'SOME BODY POSTED BELOW ONE IN TRACKITT'
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1266334481/status-changed-to-card-production-pd-not-cur/page/last_page
"Today my and my wife's 485 status changed to card production. Our PD is Nov 2007. Recently got RFE (June 14th) for EVL and status was on RFE response review from July 16th. Anybody got similar status change? Please share"

Is it GC? or Something else?

[indiani]

Pls read the entire trackitt thread, its not GC approval.

online status is not 100% reliable.

If GC approved 1-2 days before PD current , it might make some sense ( even though lawfully they cant issue GC until PD is current)

[Niksammy]

Niksammy,

For all pre-adjudicated applicants currently in EB2I bucket before Jan1st,2008 visas are allocated during VB tabulation process. As Kanmani pointed out earlier, an adjudicating officer is not linked to those pre-adjudicated cases when visa gets allocated. During the month of August, adjudicating officers will pick up the files/boxes and issue GC in majority of the cases, in some cases they may request further evidence. Given the fact that USCIS is pro-actively issuing RFEs, the number of new RFE's should come down. As the file requires one final review before card production, it will depend upon the processing speed of the particular officer. From an external point of view, we may see a Dec 31,2007 case getting approved before Sep, 2004. That pattern will continue through the month. Kanmani point was Pre-adjudicated cases getting visa allocated is in PD order not USCIS issuing cards. I hope, I explained the difference well enough.

There are some cases before 2007 who are already pre-adjudicated under EB2, those may be porters before June, 2012.

My three week estimate was for interfile applications submitted from June 2012 until now. The last approval of an interfile application in trackitt took exactly three weeks from interfile date. The interfile cases technically should be processed in application order, but again there is a huge dependency on individual officers.

Now I get it - I was treating DoS Visa allocation and USCIS issuing card as one single process. Actually, they are 2 processes. Thanks a lot for the detailed explanation.

[indiani]

Next year SO depends mostly on FA from EB2 ROW and FD form EB4 as FD from "EB1 and EB5 and FB SO will be a whole lot less than this year".

In short the worse case scenario will be less than 10K SO.

[Kanmani]

Let me explain the process in simple words.

As we know both the DoS and USCIS have hands on Immigration process, the DoS has only Visa tokens along their side, rest of our applications, interviews, RFEs are handled by USCIS.

DoS --- Visa Token
USCIS --- GC issuing Authority

1. Whenever USCIS finds an I 485 application ready for approval, it asks DoS for Visa token .

2. USCIS refers the applicant with an Alien Number/Category/Country of origin.. DoS is informed that A.No- 101(say) is ready for approval send me a Visa token.

3. If India Quota has availability , DoS sends one, otherwise the A.No.101 is put on a waiting list. The A.Numbers are arranged in priority date order with the earliest first. This waiting list is officially called Demand Data which is maintained by DoS.

4. Whenever there are visas available which are otherwise not required by other countries(Spillover), DoS decides to clear the waiting list.

5. So each A.No is allotted with 1 Visa token, purely by ascending order of their PD from the waiting list pool.

6. A.No ---> Visa token list is now sent to USCIS.

7. USCIS picks the respective pending file and approves it (by ordering to print Green Card.)

[Kanmani]

Almost all the cases before 31 Dec 2006 for Eb2I will be porters whose dates were not current when they upgraded from Eb3 to Eb2 (let us assume that these people have already sent interfile letters and are pre-adjudicated). For 2007, we will have a mix of porters as well as original Eb2 applicants.

If visa for retrogressed countries like India and China are allocated strictly by priority date order, does it mean that USCIS will not approve i-485 for any original 2007 Eb2I applicants till they have processed all applicants till 2006 (these will be people upgrading from Eb3-Eb2)?

I remember Matt mentioning in one of his posts that USCIS takes close to 3 weeks to process interfile requests. Does it mean that there won't be much approvals for 2007 Eb2I till 3rd week of August (if USCIS has to process by order of priority date) OR do you think that USCIS will start approving original 2007 EB2I applicants immediately.

PLEASE NOTE THAT EB2 upgrades/porters till 2006 will most of the times have an earlier receipt date as compared to original 2007 Eb2I applicants.

Nik,

By law, EB3 ----> EB2 conversion is possible only when the respective eb2 pd is current. Interfilers are not yet reached the DoS waiting list.

By moving dates up to 1 jan 2008, step 4 and step 5 is almost done.

Step 6 is due by 1st august 2013

Now on 1st August 2013, the interfilers will start filling the waiting list pool , visas allotted again by PD order etc.....

[Kanmani]

Matt, Thanks. I didn't notice your reply.

[indiani]

Let me explain the process in simple words.

As we know both the DoS and USCIS have hands on Immigration process, the DoS has only Visa tokens along their side, rest of our applications, interviews, RFEs are handled by USCIS.

DoS --- Visa Token
USCIS --- GC issuing Authority

1. Whenever USCIS finds an I 485 application ready for approval, it asks DoS for Visa token .

2. USCIS refers the applicant with an Alien Number/Category/Country of origin.. DoS is informed that A.No- 101(say) is ready for approval send me a Visa token.

3. If India Quota has availability , DoS sends one, otherwise the A.No.101 is put on a waiting list. The A.Numbers are arranged in priority date order with the earliest first. This waiting list is officially called Demand Data which is maintained by DoS.

4. Whenever there are visas available which are otherwise not required by other countries(Spillover), DoS decides to clear the waiting list.

5. So each A.No is allotted with 1 Visa token, purely by ascending order of their PD from the waiting list pool.

6. A.No ---> Visa token list is now sent to USCIS.

7. USCIS picks the respective pending file and approves it (by ordering to print Green Card.)

I think the other important question which is on most people's mind which matt already addressed is

in august is there a chance of nov 2007 getting approved before nov 2006 , assuming both are pre-adjudicated and current ( not interfilers )

[Kanmani]

I think the other important question which is on most people's mind which matt already addressed is

in august is there a chance of nov 2007 getting approved before nov 2006 , assuming both are pre-adjudicated and current ( not interfilers )
I have answered this earlier today. It is in the hands of Adj, who is holding your file.

From my post,

DoS will send the Visa authorization to USCIS, where it is handled by numerous adjudicators' to distribute them. If there is a delay in approval among same PD, it could be due to files handled by different adjudicators at different pace.

[MATT2012]

Matt, Thanks. I didn't notice your reply.
Did you notice the trackitt case, I had more than half a mind to congratulate. I hope the next sequence of events happen only around August 1st.

[Kanmani]

Did you notice the trackitt case, I had more than half a mind to congratulate. I hope the next sequence of events happen only around August 1st.

MATT,

DoS acknowledged this kind of errors happening at USCIS. Once Welcome notice is sent (even) by error, DoS is obliged to issue a visa number to the respective applicant . They said they'll give it from otherwise unused numbers.

Guys, the above is true. Don't ask me source, I haven't bookmarked it .

[Geevij]

Hi All,
Wanted to check if any one is like me. I recently received an update (PD is current next month) from USCIS saying that RFEs have been triggered for me and my dependent applicant. However, I did not receive the RFEs yet and the USCIS case status does not show that the status is in RFE. Do you think there is an RFE for my case at all? Its been 25 days but neither my lawyer nor me received the RFEs physical copies yest.

Anyone in the same situation?
-geevij

[chittoor]

Hi All,
Wanted to check if any one is like me. I recently received an update (PD is current next month) from USCIS saying that RFEs have been triggered for me and my dependent applicant. However, I did not receive the RFEs yet and the USCIS case status does not show that the status is in RFE. Do you think there is an RFE for my case at all? Its been 25 days but neither my lawyer nor me received the RFEs physical copies yest.

Anyone in the same situation?
-geevij

Geevij, i saw a similar case in Trackitt, porters thread, they contacted congressman to resolve such issue, you can try this route.

[SenorMeow]

The AFM only says the conversion of the basis of the I-485 cannot take place until the new Category is Current. That IMO opinion is the request for a visa under EB2 and approval.

The rest of the process that people call interfiling can still take place. The A-file can be consolidated with the all the information, an RFE can be raised for a written request from the applicant to be considered under EB2 when the dates become Current and the I-485 can be checked for any issues that need resolving for it to remain pre-adjudicated. There seems to be plenty of evidence that is happening. The case may even be filed in the staging area under EB2.

USCIS don't appear to be reflecting the new Category in their own Inventory - the April Inventory figures were fairly close to the Demand Data published around the same time.

CO has said, that for a time, the case will be shown under both EB2 and EB3. I have no idea how quickly the EB3 case disappears from the EB3 demand and how that is accomplished. Indiani has some slides from a recent AILA conference that mentioned it - perhaps they shed more light on the subject. Previously it has been reported:



so there does appear to be some automation of the process.

People have previously thought the reduction in EB3 Demand would give some sort of handle on porting numbers. So far that hasn't really worked out. We'll just have to see if it is better this year. I've pretty much given up hope that the porting numbers can be calculated in any meaningful way from the figures available.

I'm not going to pretend I know how the system operates for porting cases, there isn't sufficient information to do that.

Spec,

Thanks for the explanation. Makes sense, although I must admit some of the information out there on how IVAMS is utilized by both agencies threw me for a loop. Specifically, some older links seemed to suggest that

a) USCIS can request a visa when the date is not current, whereby it gets added to pending demand in IVAMS (link (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/forum/immigrant-issues/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues/12603-the-aila-dc-chapter-meeting-with-charlie-oppenheim)) (link (http://srwlawyers.com/department-of-state-provides-immigrant-visa-allocation-information/))
This is contradicted by the AFM instructions requiring the adjudicator to confirm a visa is available per the bulletin before placing a request in IVAMS (link (http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/AFM/HTML/AFM/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-8624/0-0-0-9232.html))

and,

b) An A# cannot be tied with multiple visa requests in IVAMS, so the same alien cannot be pending under two categories (link (http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/news/2010,1124-mayorkas.pdf))
This, as I understand, contradicts with CO's recent AILA statement that you quoted

Perhaps I'm reading this all wrong, or maybe since interfiling/IVAMS is purely an administrative process USCIS is able to bend its own rules...either way, this stuff is complicated for sure!

[MATT2012]

Spec,

Thanks for the explanation. Makes sense, although I must admit some of the information out there on how IVAMS is utilized by both agencies threw me for a loop. Specifically, some older links seemed to suggest that

a) USCIS can request a visa when the date is not current, whereby it gets added to pending demand in IVAMS (link (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/forum/immigrant-issues/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues/12603-the-aila-dc-chapter-meeting-with-charlie-oppenheim)) (link (http://srwlawyers.com/department-of-state-provides-immigrant-visa-allocation-information/))
This is contradicted by the AFM instructions requiring the adjudicator to confirm a visa is available per the bulletin before placing a request in IVAMS (link (http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/AFM/HTML/AFM/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-8624/0-0-0-9232.html))

and,

b) An A# cannot be tied with multiple visa requests in IVAMS, so the same alien cannot be pending under two categories (link (http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/news/2010,1124-mayorkas.pdf))
This, as I understand, contradicts with CO's recent AILA statement that you quoted

Perhaps I'm reading this all wrong, or maybe since interfiling/IVAMS is purely an administrative process USCIS is able to bend its own rules...either way, this stuff is complicated for sure!

Thank you, the link was helpful. I used the link to provide clarity for an out of turn approval in trackitt. Regarding your point of USCIS requesting visa number when PD is not current, the logic is applicable to those applications submitted when PD is current and pre-adjudicated later. I will let Spec reply in detail.

Kanmani: The document you were looking for was part of the link provided by SenorMeow.

[Techsavvy1973]

Hi Friends

My PD is Feb 6, 2008 (EB2). Filed the I-485 (NSC) last January but my case status stayed at "Acceptance" all this time.

Today morning I got alerts for myself and my wife - indicating an update to the case. The status now shows "Initial Review".

Not sure if this is a good news or bad news? Wanted to share this update with all - Does this mean that Feb 2008 will be current in Sep Bulletin? Does anyone else have their case status moved from Acceptance to Initial Review recently? Does this mean that the case is not pre-adjudicated?

Thanks for creating and maintaing this forum - great info, civil discussion.

[ramakrpb]

Gurus and Pandits,

A quick question about Consular processing -

My priority date is 18-Jul-2008 (EB2I). We had paid the fee to NVC in Jan-2013 and this week we have sent DS230 and civil documents package to NVC. If Jul-08 becomes current (by extreme luck!), would NVC have enough time to process the application/documents and pass on the package to Consulate ?

Thanks for your insight!

[vizcard]

Hi Friends

My PD is Feb 6, 2008 (EB2). Filed the I-485 (NSC) last January but my case status stayed at "Acceptance" all this time.

Today morning I got alerts for myself and my wife - indicating an update to the case. The status now shows "Initial Review".

Not sure if this is a good news or bad news? Wanted to share this update with all - Does this mean that Feb 2008 will be current in Sep Bulletin? Does anyone else have their case status moved from Acceptance to Initial Review recently? Does this mean that the case is not pre-adjudicated?

Thanks for creating and maintaing this forum - great info, civil discussion.

Don't go by online statuses too much. Mine was initial review and then back to acceptance sometime last May or something. The online system is good for 2 things - acknowledging that your app is in the system and that you are approved. Everything in the middle is highly questionable.

[coolvibe]

Hi Guru's
I picked up the predictions by our Guru Brother Matt. Which says realistic prediction as 1st April 2008 for EB2I
What do other Guru's say about this predictions?

Priority Date** 1st April-2008*
Current Demand 12200
Porting 7000
Porting left over 25% -1750
Current Demand Left Over 10% -1220
Total Visas Required 16230
EB1 Usage 35000
EB2 WW (ROW+M+P) usage 38500
EB3 usage 45188
EB4 usage 7500
EB5 usage 8750
EB2 China usage 3163
EB2 India usage 3163
Total 141264
Annual Visas 158000
Total SO 16736
China Share of SO 1172
Indian Share of SO 15564
Indian Visas 800
Total Available 16364

[indiani]

Hi Guru's
I picked up the predictions by our Guru Brother Matt. Which says realistic prediction as 1st April 2008 for EB2I
What do other Guru's say about this predictions?

Priority Date** 1st April-2008*
Current Demand 12200
Porting 7000
Porting left over 25% -1750
Current Demand Left Over 10% -1220
Total Visas Required 16230
EB1 Usage 35000
EB2 WW (ROW+M+P) usage 38500
EB3 usage 45188
EB4 usage 7500
EB5 usage 8750
EB2 China usage 3163
EB2 India usage 3163
Total 141264
Annual Visas 158000
Total SO 16736
China Share of SO 1172
Indian Share of SO 15564
Indian Visas 800
Total Available 16364

Just b'cos you asked, I am throwing mine in March 1st 2008

[indiani]

Hi Friends

My PD is Feb 6, 2008 (EB2). Filed the I-485 (NSC) last January but my case status stayed at "Acceptance" all this time.

Today morning I got alerts for myself and my wife - indicating an update to the case. The status now shows "Initial Review".

Not sure if this is a good news or bad news? Wanted to share this update with all - Does this mean that Feb 2008 will be current in Sep Bulletin? Does anyone else have their case status moved from Acceptance to Initial Review recently? Does this mean that the case is not pre-adjudicated?

Thanks for creating and maintaing this forum - great info, civil discussion.

when they are reviewing your case they change to intial review, that means someone touching your file, so good news, if u don't get RFE after that then mostly its pre-adj

[vizcard]

Hi Guru's
I picked up the predictions by our Guru Brother Matt. Which says realistic prediction as 1st April 2008 for EB2I
What do other Guru's say about this predictions?

Priority Date** 1st April-2008*
Current Demand 12200
Porting 7000
Porting left over 25% -1750
Current Demand Left Over 10% -1220
Total Visas Required 16230
EB1 Usage 35000
EB2 WW (ROW+M+P) usage 38500
EB3 usage 45188
EB4 usage 7500
EB5 usage 8750
EB2 China usage 3163
EB2 India usage 3163
Total 141264
Annual Visas 158000
Total SO 16736
China Share of SO 1172
Indian Share of SO 15564
Indian Visas 800
Total Available 16364

Matt is obviously using his own assumptions. Personally i think EB2WW is light in his assumptions but i cant say its totally wrong.

[coolvibe]

Matt is obviously using his own assumptions. Personally i think EB2WW is light in his assumptions but i cant say its totally wrong.
Last edited by vizcard; Today at 09:52 AM.

Indiani- (1st March 2008) :Thanks for your predictions.
Vizcard-Since you had added your comments, can you please provide your prediction once again for ready reference of forum members.

[iwait3]

Wonder if sequestration has any effect ?.........

[vizcard]

Matt is obviously using his own assumptions. Personally i think EB2WW is light in his assumptions but i cant say its totally wrong.
Last edited by vizcard; Today at 09:52 AM.

Indiani- (1st March 2008) :Thanks for your predictions.
Vizcard-Since you had added your comments, can you please provide your prediction once again for ready reference of forum members.

I think it'll be Mar 1 as well with an asterisk mark. Ofcourse CO could go much further and we will run in to non-FIFO approvals.

[MATT2012]

My assumptions behind EB2I reaching April 1st,2008 by next bulletin. From USCIS figures 33500 EB I485s were approved in first Quarter. The second last line is for CP cases. There may be couple of 100 more visas available from FB, that could be released in Sep bulletin.
---------EB2WW---- EB1-------EB4------EB5--------EB3-------EB2I----EB2C-----Total
QTR I----11750----9800------1850-----300-------8000------1000---- 800-------33500
QTR II---11750---- 8700------1500-----200-------8000------800----- 800-------31750
QTR III--7850------7500------1500-----200-------7000------500-----800-------25350
QTR **--6100------ 6800------1250-----200-------12500----16600---1600------45050
CP-------1200------ 1500------1200-----8000-------9700----350------400--------22350
Total----- 38650----34300----7300-----8900-------45200---19250---4400------158000

[Eb2_Dec07]

Gurus/ friends , apologies to distract . Kindly remove my post from this thread later. Wanted to get your take.
my EB2 Ind date is current next month with Dec 07 PD pending 485 . Yesterday evening while driving with my family ,3 yr old daughter was briefly taken out of seat to pacify and I ( dependent derivative of 485- Primary already approved with GC ) got a ticket with summons to the municipal courthouse in NJ pursuant to " Failure to use a child passenger restraint when transporting a child under the age of eight and weighing less than 80 pounds" . This is the first time I ever got a ticket in these 10 yrs in US. This has a fine up to $54 .

With my dates being current next month , does this have any impact on my 485 process. Been checking online about this since yesterday .

[natvyas]

Matt is obviously using his own assumptions. Personally i think EB2WW is light in his assumptions but i cant say its totally wrong.

Viz and Indiani

A) How do you explain the RFE notices to Mar 08 applicants?

B) even though there are enough EB2 ROW applications with USCIS, however the issuance of GC are very slow this month..

Regards
Nat

[vizcard]

Gurus/ friends , apologies to distract . Kindly remove my post from this thread later. Wanted to get your take.
my EB2 Ind date is current next month with Dec 07 PD pending 485 . Yesterday evening while driving with my family ,3 yr old daughter was briefly taken out of seat to pacify and I ( dependent derivative of 485- Primary already approved with GC ) got a ticket with summons to the municipal courthouse in NJ pursuant to " Failure to use a child passenger restraint when transporting a child under the age of eight and weighing less than 80 pounds" . This is the first time I ever got a ticket in these 10 yrs in US. This has a fine up to $54 .

With my dates being current next month , does this have any impact on my 485 process. Been checking online about this since yesterday .

Shouldn't be an issue. They have already completed a background check. The phrasing sounds like its in NJ and I believe its either just an "infraction" or worst case a "misdemeanor" offense.

[vizcard]

Viz and Indiani

A) How do you explain the RFE notices to Mar 08 applicants?

B) even though there are enough EB2 ROW applications with USCIS, however the issuance of GC are very slow this month..

Regards
Nat

a) Could be a back up plan coz number of porters are unknown.
b) I'm assuming you are basing this off Trackitt info. may be people just haven't been updating their profiles or may be its some sort of curve as to when they actually get sent out .. I dont know. The absolutely worst case scenario would be that they have exceeded their quota and have an internal retrogression.

[vizcard]

My assumptions behind EB2I reaching April 1st,2008 by next bulletin. From USCIS figures 33500 EB I485s were approved in first Quarter. The second last line is for CP cases. There may be couple of 100 more visas available from FB, that could be released in Sep bulletin.
---------EB2WW---- EB1-------EB4------EB5--------EB3-------EB2I----EB2C-----Total
QTR I----11750----9800------1850-----300-------8000------1000---- 800-------33500
QTR II---11750---- 8700------1500-----200-------8000------800----- 800-------31750
QTR III--7850------7500------1500-----200-------7000------500-----800-------25350
QTR **--6100------ 6800------1250-----200-------12500----16600---1600------45050
CP-------1200------ 1500------1200-----8000-------9700----350------400--------22350
Total----- 38650----34300----7300-----8900-------45200---19250---4400------158000

What is the basis for Q2, Q3 and Q4 approvals?

[indiani]

Viz and Indiani

A) How do you explain the RFE notices to Mar 08 applicants?

B) even though there are enough EB2 ROW applications with USCIS, however the issuance of GC are very slow this month..

Regards
Nat

no one knows at this point including CO with 100% certainity, thats why no point in too detail analysis this far into the fiscal yr in IMO.
approx almost everyone agrees that there will be few months( 2-3) movement, very few believe it will be 6 months or more.

[MATT2012]

What is the basis for Q2, Q3 and Q4 approvals?


As Indiani pointed out, we have only few weeks left to know for real.

But as my last post on the subject of FY2013 calculations.

Let me answer the easier part first, EB2C except Q4, is based on rough quarterly allocation and a direct logic based demand data. For the last quarter for EB2C, I also allocated their 7% share from SO. EB2I is derived from Inventory numbers for Q1 and Q2. Q3 for EB2 India is based on drop in approvals we noticed and leveling off of the surge caused by retrogression.

EB1 is the toughest assumption and is derived as a factor of first quarter split of approvals. I also had a high number and low number based on inventory comparison and trackitt data. Once USCIS published the first quarter I485 approval stats, the number was trending below the mid point of the range . I also had a calculation to support lower Inventory numbers for second quarter EB1 , which turned out to be true when April Inventory numbers came out.

EB2WW , Quarter 1 is based on I-485 approvals, making a logical split between different categories. Quarter 2 for EB2WW is considered equal to Quarter I, the basis being 9 month weightage given to the first six months. I also had a very close number based on USCIS inventory figures, converted using trackitt approval percentages of respective months. Also an approximate PERM conversion also points to a very similar number. The odds against the logic is high first and second quarter trackitt approvals. But I could say with reasonable confidence that EB2WW crossing 40K number will be very less.

I am sure, EB4 and EB5 numbers are very close to consensus estimates.

if you look into the EB2I numbers (mentioned in my earlier post)for last quarter + CP, it is close to 17K. That number will support a very reasonable number of porting APPROVALS, after considering current demand until end of March. One of the negatives in the whole calculation is, if EB3 performed really low in first quarter. I don't think so, but debatable.

For the Sep bulletin, I know there is a fair consensus around 1st March, 2008, which also supports the high end of CO statement interpretation( dates moving to Feb). If porting approvals reaches high end of estimates together with EB1 approvals shooting to the max range, we have an issue. Otherwise, 3 months of movement is possible.

Just taking this opportunity to consolidate the thoughts of regular posters as I understood, correct me If I am wrong. I am doing this just because I noticed at least a few questions about Sep month predictions.

Q: One month to max six month movement (July 1st,2008).
Spec: No movement to Max until April 1st, 2008
Viz: One month to max March 1st,2008
Indiani: One month to max March 1st, 2008
Kanmani: ?? I know you had a first quarter 2008, but am not sure of dates.
Matt: One month to max May 1st 2008, though I will stick with April 1st, 2008

if I have left anybody, it was not intentional, but because I was not clear. Good luck to all those who got current in August bulletin and the prospective in the next bulletin. As always I would try to answer other questions, if not calculation related to FY2013.

Cheers!!

Matt

[Kanmani]

As Indiani pointed out, we have only few weeks left to know for real.

But as my last post on the subject of FY2013 calculations.

Let me answer the easier part first, EB2C except Q4, is based on rough quarterly allocation and a direct logic based demand data. For the last quarter for EB2C, I also allocated their 7% share from SO. EB2I is derived from Inventory numbers for Q1 and Q2. Q3 for EB2 India is based on drop in approvals we noticed and leveling off of the surge caused by retrogression.


Q: One month to max six month movement (July 1st,2008).
Spec: No movement to Max until April 1st, 2008
Viz: One month to max March 1st,2008
Indiani: One month to max March 1st, 2008
Kanmani: ?? I know you had a first quarter 2008, but am not sure of dates.
Matt: One month to max May 1st 2008, though I will stick with April 1st, 2008

if I have left anybody, it was not intentional, but because I was not clear. Good luck to all those who got current in August bulletin and the prospective in the next bulletin. As always I would try to answer other questions, if not calculation related to FY2013.

Cheers!!

Matt

Matt,

That is not the easiest part in my opinion :)

I disagree that part. I spent hours to find a basis.

As far as my guess ( I don't have calculations, 100% guess) 1 June 2008 to India might catch up with China.

[MATT2012]

Matt,

That is not the easiest part in my opinion :)

I disagree that part. I spent hours to find a basis.

As far as my guess ( I don't have calculations, 100% guess) 1 June 2008 to India might catch up with China.

Thanks Kanmani sharing your view about EB2I, I understand the complexity around EB2C.

[suninphx]

As far as my guess ( I don't have calculations, 100% guess) 1 June 2008 to India might catch up with China.

@Kanmani - Lets see if we get some MS Dhoni moments for Sept bulletin

[Kanmani]

@Kanmani - Lets see if we get some MS Dhoni moments for Sept bulletin

I am going on a hiding in India to avoid stones .(of-course!) Advance Congratulations to all our members who will be Greened in August and Best wishes to rest of 2008 PDers.

@Eb2_Dec07 - I don't think traffic violation of this kind would cause hindrance to your GC approval. As far as I know this doesn't even come under misdemeanor charge. Don't worry. During naturalization, the application might carry questions on court appearances, even then it is just a traffic violation.

[Eb2_Dec07]

@ Vizcard and @Kanmani , thanks a lot for your comments. Kanmani , enjoy your trip to india .

[GCKnowHow]

Gurus/ friends , apologies to distract . Kindly remove my post from this thread later. Wanted to get your take.
my EB2 Ind date is current next month with Dec 07 PD pending 485 . Yesterday evening while driving with my family ,3 yr old daughter was briefly taken out of seat to pacify and I ( dependent derivative of 485- Primary already approved with GC ) got a ticket with summons to the municipal courthouse in NJ pursuant to " Failure to use a child passenger restraint when transporting a child under the age of eight and weighing less than 80 pounds" . This is the first time I ever got a ticket in these 10 yrs in US. This has a fine up to $54 .

With my dates being current next month , does this have any impact on my 485 process. Been checking online about this since yesterday .

My friend was pulled over for not fastening a 6 month infant in car seat. But that time the officer witnessed the cholic cry and he gave him a warning.
When a 3 yr old is upset, best is to pit stop and get the situation under control.
If it was emergency situtation that you had to travel, then you can go to court and explain your reasons. If judge buys it, he may wave it off.
Traffic violations should not affect your GC.

[GCKnowHow]

Viz and Indiani

A) How do you explain the RFE notices to Mar 08 applicants?

B) even though there are enough EB2 ROW applications with USCIS, however the issuance of GC are very slow this month..

Regards
Nat

Issuance of an RFE doesn't mean a GC will be made available in next bulletin. It may be part of a wholesome cleanup exercise too. These things are hard to explain. Our prediction specialists do their best, based on available info and their own hunch. Can't hold anyone for it.

[Vkkpnm]

hello guys, a quick question: If I want to ensure my I485 application reach USCIS center on 1st Aug, any idea what time do they open their centers to start receiving applications?

[indiani]

hello guys, a quick question: If I want to ensure my I485 application reach USCIS center on 1st Aug, any idea what time do they open their centers to start receiving applications?

better arrange the timing of fedex/usps in a way that it goes there after 9 am after 1st. if it reaches early they will reject

[dec2007]

hello guys, a quick question: If I want to ensure my I485 application reach USCIS center on 1st Aug, any idea what time do they open their centers to start receiving applications?

I understand your situation and anxiety to make sure your app reaches on August 1st, been in your shoes. Believe me one day will not affect your application...you can always send it on August 1st, if you want you can overnight it.
Just a friendly suggestion, I think it is not worth taking a risk of timing. You dont want to reach your app on July 31st.

[pdmay2008]

I understand your situation and anxiety to make sure your app reaches on August 1st, been in your shoes. Believe me one day will not affect your application...you can always send it on August 1st, if you want you can overnight it.
Just a friendly suggestion, I think it is not worth taking a risk of timing. You dont want to reach your app on July 31st.

One day does make lot of difference some times. Just to explain local USCIS office did not allow us walkin for finger prints during Feb 2012 time. People who got finger prints done through same service center 1 day before us got their GCs even though their PD is after me. Luck also plays a great role in this GC process. Send the documents over night through fedex on July 31st evening time. It will get delivered next day morning. Good luck...

[natvyas]

Issuance of an RFE doesn't mean a GC will be made available in next bulletin. It may be part of a wholesome cleanup exercise too. These things are hard to explain. Our prediction specialists do their best, based on available info and their own hunch. Can't hold anyone for it.

Dear Sir

With all due respect, you have totally misunderstood my line of questions. I have been around this forum for sometime to know that this forum is all about predictions based on calculations (which in turn is based on known information).

By no means was my post intending to hold anyone to your prediction.

Thanking you for your time.

Best regards
Nat

[primus]

Guys, one quick question and suggestion. My lawyer has sent me I-485, I-765 (EAD), I-131 (AP), G-325 (Biographic info)

All those forms are PDF forms. In pdf , you have limited space to fill out the information in the text box. Some of my texts are going beyond the text box and either overlapping with other fields or getting hidden. Since there is no way to reduce the font size. So what you gurus suggest? Filling those fields by hand? That would be something last, I will prefer to do. I am sure everyone who has ever filled those forms, must have come across such situation. What you did?

[Vkkpnm]

Guys, one quick question and suggestion. My lawyer has sent me I-485, I-765 (EAD), I-131 (AP), G-325 (Biographic info)

All those forms are PDF forms. In pdf , you have limited space to fill out the information in the text box. Some of my texts are going beyond the text box and either overlapping with other fields or getting hidden. Since there is no way to reduce the font size. So what you gurus suggest? Filling those fields by hand? That would be something last, I will prefer to do. I am sure everyone who has ever filled those forms, must have come across such situation. What you did?

I would have asked lawyer :) jokes apart, I filled it by hand.

[Mini Kumar]

We are filing our AOS on 8/1.Booked our visa stamping which is valid till 2014 oct on 10th Aug at Chennai.There will be doing the ten finger print.Do we need to again for FP here after returning back?Will the FP done at US consulate can be used here?

[vizcard]

We are filing our AOS on 8/1.Booked our visa stamping which is valid till 2014 oct on 10th Aug at Chennai.There will be doing the ten finger print.Do we need to again for FP here after returning back?Will the FP done at US consulate can be used here?

You have to do it again.

[indiani]

10 more days to hear from quite a lot of happy new permanent residents.

My hunch is that there will be a mass approval like the RFE's...JK

Likely they might send away all pre adjudicated in the first 2 weeks

[indiani]

Guys, one quick question and suggestion. My lawyer has sent me I-485, I-765 (EAD), I-131 (AP), G-325 (Biographic info)

All those forms are PDF forms. In pdf , you have limited space to fill out the information in the text box. Some of my texts are going beyond the text box and either overlapping with other fields or getting hidden. Since there is no way to reduce the font size. So what you gurus suggest? Filling those fields by hand? That would be something last, I will prefer to do. I am sure everyone who has ever filled those forms, must have come across such situation. What you did?

if its a flat fee lawyer just bombard them with questions, I did EAD renewal on my own but hired lawyer for 485 b'cos of OCD ( they did labor, 140 anyway). IMHO if I knew everything I know now I would have done better than lawyer as they sometimes screwup

[Kanmani]

Guys, one quick question and suggestion. My lawyer has sent me I-485, I-765 (EAD), I-131 (AP), G-325 (Biographic info)

All those forms are PDF forms. In pdf , you have limited space to fill out the information in the text box. Some of my texts are going beyond the text box and either overlapping with other fields or getting hidden. Since there is no way to reduce the font size. So what you gurus suggest? Filling those fields by hand? That would be something last, I will prefer to do. I am sure everyone who has ever filled those forms, must have come across such situation. What you did?

Primus,

Fox PDF Editor tool can be used to fill the forms . It was free, please check with the availability.

[desitiger]

Thanks for summarizing the movement in Sep bulletin. I hope/pray/beg to god that it moves to April 2008. Getting tired of the H1B sh*t.


As Indiani pointed out, we have only few weeks left to know for real.

But as my last post on the subject of FY2013 calculations.

Let me answer the easier part first, EB2C except Q4, is based on rough quarterly allocation and a direct logic based demand data. For the last quarter for EB2C, I also allocated their 7% share from SO. EB2I is derived from Inventory numbers for Q1 and Q2. Q3 for EB2 India is based on drop in approvals we noticed and leveling off of the surge caused by retrogression.

EB1 is the toughest assumption and is derived as a factor of first quarter split of approvals. I also had a high number and low number based on inventory comparison and trackitt data. Once USCIS published the first quarter I485 approval stats, the number was trending below the mid point of the range . I also had a calculation to support lower Inventory numbers for second quarter EB1 , which turned out to be true when April Inventory numbers came out.

EB2WW , Quarter 1 is based on I-485 approvals, making a logical split between different categories. Quarter 2 for EB2WW is considered equal to Quarter I, the basis being 9 month weightage given to the first six months. I also had a very close number based on USCIS inventory figures, converted using trackitt approval percentages of respective months. Also an approximate PERM conversion also points to a very similar number. The odds against the logic is high first and second quarter trackitt approvals. But I could say with reasonable confidence that EB2WW crossing 40K number will be very less.

I am sure, EB4 and EB5 numbers are very close to consensus estimates.

if you look into the EB2I numbers (mentioned in my earlier post)for last quarter + CP, it is close to 17K. That number will support a very reasonable number of porting APPROVALS, after considering current demand until end of March. One of the negatives in the whole calculation is, if EB3 performed really low in first quarter. I don't think so, but debatable.

For the Sep bulletin, I know there is a fair consensus around 1st March, 2008, which also supports the high end of CO statement interpretation( dates moving to Feb). If porting approvals reaches high end of estimates together with EB1 approvals shooting to the max range, we have an issue. Otherwise, 3 months of movement is possible.

Just taking this opportunity to consolidate the thoughts of regular posters as I understood, correct me If I am wrong. I am doing this just because I noticed at least a few questions about Sep month predictions.

Q: One month to max six month movement (July 1st,2008).
Spec: No movement to Max until April 1st, 2008
Viz: One month to max March 1st,2008
Indiani: One month to max March 1st, 2008
Kanmani: ?? I know you had a first quarter 2008, but am not sure of dates.
Matt: One month to max May 1st 2008, though I will stick with April 1st, 2008

if I have left anybody, it was not intentional, but because I was not clear. Good luck to all those who got current in August bulletin and the prospective in the next bulletin. As always I would try to answer other questions, if not calculation related to FY2013.

Cheers!!

Matt

[kuku82]

Hey guys, an off topic question.

My H1B is stamped till 2015 but my I-94 expires in Oct 2013. The I94 validity is tied to my passport expiry date. However, I have a renewed passport now.

I was hoping I could drive into Canada and come back to get a new I94, but it seems they are taking 2+ months or so for processing visitor visas (there is some strike going on it seems). Is there a way by which I could drive out of US, but not cross the Canadian post, and then return back to the US side? If so, any risks involved?

[coolvibe]

Kuku92 -

Well for your I-94 extension you dont have to cross the border. 1) Take the appointment from your nearest USCusomeBorder security Inspectionoffice.
http://www.avlawoffice.com/USCustomsBorderProtectionDeferredInspection.htm
2)Tell them that even though you have a valid visa date on your passport the immigraiton officer has given you limited time on I-94.
3)They will fix it for you and will issue new I-94 and update their system accordinlgy. I have done it once going to Kansas city Airport by taking an appointment.(I use to live in Topeka,KS at that pointof time, hence Kansas city airport was nearby)

[kuku82]

Hey thanks for the quick response but that didn't work. I went to Philly airport but they didn't entertain my request.....


Kuku92 -

Well for your I-94 extension you dont have to cross the border. 1) Take the appointment from your nearest USCusomeBorder security Inspectionoffice.
http://www.avlawoffice.com/USCustomsBorderProtectionDeferredInspection.htm
2)Tell them that even though you have a valid visa date on your passport the immigraiton officer has given you limited time on I-94.
3)They will fix it for you and will issue new I-94 and update their system accordinlgy. I have done it once going to Kansas city Airport by taking an appointment.(I use to live in Topeka,KS at that pointof time, hence Kansas city airport was nearby)

[geterdone]

I had the same situation. In my case I went to a Mexico/US border crossing. I did go with a guy from the agency that takes you to consulates for visa stamping in mexico. We waited for an hour and after that the officer called me and when I told my situation he issued a new I-94. No issues there. No questions asked. I could have gone alone, but did n't want to take chance.

I would imagine you can do the same at the US/Canada border. I don't think you need to cross the border or take Canadian visa. To be on the safer side you can take a letter from the employer. They did not ask me for it and I didn't have one, but take one just to be safe.



Hey guys, an off topic question.

My H1B is stamped till 2015 but my I-94 expires in Oct 2013. The I94 validity is tied to my passport expiry date. However, I have a renewed passport now.

I was hoping I could drive into Canada and come back to get a new I94, but it seems they are taking 2+ months or so for processing visitor visas (there is some strike going on it seems). Is there a way by which I could drive out of US, but not cross the Canadian post, and then return back to the US side? If so, any risks involved?

[redsox2009]

Average Number of I-140's and I-485's filling are coming down, this is a good sign. We can expect atleast 3-6 months movement.

[vizcard]

Average Number of I-140's and I-485's filling are coming down, this is a good sign. We can expect atleast 3-6 months movement.

how do you figure that ?

[vizcard]

Hi everyone,

Does anyone know where to send the AC21 documents (TSC)? I used to have this info and I seem to have lost it. Online search shows different things...I will really appreciate if someone can quickly remind it to me. I need to post these documents today itself. Thanks!

What docs are you sending and why? Just asking coz I may be doign that myself

[redsox2009]

how do you figure that ?


USCIS Dashboard

[Kanmani]

Sportsfan33, Did you file your I-485 by yourself or thru' an attorney?

By submitting G-28 Form along with I-485, you have authorized the attorney to act on behalf of yourself. Any correspondence from USCIS may go to your old attorney, assuming the validity of G-28.

[SmileBaba]

Freinds,
In the event of Green card approval, is it required to fill and submit I-9 form? I am currently not working with my petitioning employer and was wondering if I should be ready to do that once my GC is approved.
What could be other important things that one shouldn't miss/avoid after GC approval?

[vizcard]

Freinds,
In the event of Green card approval, is it required to fill and submit I-9 form? I am currently not working with my petitioning employer and was wondering if I should be ready to do that once my GC is approved.
What could be other important things that one shouldn't miss/avoid after GC approval?

I'm sure you can find a list someone where online. But the 2 key things (for both you and your family members) are -
- file new I9 with your current employer
- get a new social security card without any restrictions on them (same SSN)

[incredible]

The second point is the first time I heard regarding Social Security Card. I am on EAD for more than a year now. Any specific advantages to get the new Social Security card after EAD ?
Also is there any time limit to apply for AC-21 after we change the job. I have changed my jobs about a week back and my employer is still doing some internal processing to provide me with a letter (they said they will provide the letter).


I'm sure you can find a list someone where online. But the 2 key things (for both you and your family members) are -
- file new I9 with your current employer
- get a new social security card without any restrictions on them (same SSN)

[gclabor07]

You don't need to go to a border to do this. You just need to visit a local USCIS field office (same office where people take INFOpass and stuff like that) and discuss your situation there. In my case, I was able to do this in Atlanta USCIS field office. Airport is hard because those folks probably sit away in a secure area.




I had the same situation. In my case I went to a Mexico/US border crossing. I did go with a guy from the agency that takes you to consulates for visa stamping in mexico. We waited for an hour and after that the officer called me and when I told my situation he issued a new I-94. No issues there. No questions asked. I could have gone alone, but did n't want to take chance.

I would imagine you can do the same at the US/Canada border. I don't think you need to cross the border or take Canadian visa. To be on the safer side you can take a letter from the employer. They did not ask me for it and I didn't have one, but take one just to be safe.

[vizcard]

The second point is the first time I heard regarding Social Security Card. I am on EAD for more than a year now. Any specific advantages to get the new Social Security card after EAD ?
Also is there any time limit to apply for AC-21 after we change the job. I have changed my jobs about a week back and my employer is still doing some internal processing to provide me with a letter (they said they will provide the letter).

There is NO timeline for submitting AC21 paperwork.

Your current social security card comes with employment restrictions (i.e. no employment without authorization) on it. EAD doesn't mean those employment restrictions go away. But when you get a GC, those go away. So you basically need to get a new SS card that comes without the restrictions on them.

[incredible]

Thanks vizcard. Can you elaborate on the timeline ? How soon should we have to submit the AC-21 after joining a new company?

There is timeline for submitting AC21 paperwork.

Your current social security card comes with employment restrictions (i.e. no employment without authorization) on it. EAD doesn't mean those employment restrictions go away. But when you get a GC, those go away. So you basically need to get a new SS card that comes without the restrictions on them.

[incredible]

Apologies, I thought you said there is a timeline. Thanks for providing the details

Thanks vizcard. Can you elaborate on the timeline ? How soon should we have to submit the AC-21 after joining a new company?

[SmileBaba]

I'm sure you can find a list someone where online. But the 2 key things (for both you and your family members) are -
- file new I9 with your current employer
- get a new social security card without any restrictions on them (same SSN)

Thanks Viz!

[vizcard]

Apologies, I thought you said there is a timeline. Thanks for providing the details

Typo... my brain moved faster than my hands :)

[GCKnowHow]

Freinds,
In the event of Green card approval, is it required to fill and submit I-9 form? I am currently not working with my petitioning employer and was wondering if I should be ready to do that once my GC is approved.
What could be other important things that one shouldn't miss/avoid after GC approval?

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/661-Post-Green-Card-Approval
Above link should give you the info you are looking for.

[incredible]

:). For a second you have made me curious and scared too.

Typo... my brain moved faster than my hands :)

[vizcard]

:). For a second you have made me curious and scared too.

I have that effect on people :)

[indiani]

as I have seen one GC approval of august bulletin current , anyone can be approved from now onwards so you can checking online status or emails once a day.
USCIS appears to be as anxious to give away GC's as we much as we are ..JK

[bloke2000]

Gurus...
need advice on what to do..
I have EB2 with June 2008 PD. Most likely based on discussions in this forum it is not coming through for another year..Filed 485 in January 2012 got RFE in July have not heard back since then..so safe to assume preadj..
Wife has EB2 with with Oct 2006 PD. which came through after 485 was filed through my case..
My questions are...
Should we interfile (if that is the right term for such switch)..basically making primary as dependent and vice versa..is that even allowed..
How should we do it?? What documents to send?? Where?? How much time does it take??
Any advice would be great..

[GCKnowHow]

USCIS appears to be as anxious to give away GC's as we much as we are ..JK

Good to hear it. I couldn't beleive myself seeing it in Trackitt.

[ampradni]

bloke2000,

We are in similar situation but with a different EB preference.

We applied I-485 for myself and my wife in Aug 2007 with my I-140(EB3-I, Dec 2004). Since then my wife's company did her I-140(EB2-I, Jun 2007).

Her date got current in Nov 2011. We called USCIS and asked if we could change the I-140 basis of the I-485 applications to my wife's I-140 in the EB2 category. I got an extremely helpful Level2 officer on the phone and he confirmed that we could do it by just sending an interfile request with all appropriate documentary evidence and a current EVL from my wife's employer.

Once we did that , we received a confirmation that they have received our request but it was not clear whether they "accepted" it. So we raised SR in Apr 2012. They responded in May 2012 that they have filed the letter in our files but just then EB2-I dates were retrogessed.

We plan to call them in August as soon as the dates are current to check on the status. Maybe we will plan to go to congressman/senator's office etc.

In your case both the PD dates are in the same EB preference but 2 years could save you some time. Please consult your attorney for more advice because we did (on Lawbench) and we got conflicting responses. Some attorneys recommended to file new I-485s with the new I-140. We ended up going with what the L2 officer told us. In either case I wanted to share that a L2 officer told us that it is possible and that we could do it using an interfile request ; however we have not seen any results so far :-(

A big THANK YOU to all the posters on this forum , especially Spec, Q, other individuals who are very helpful and have reduced the anxiety around this process. I have been lurking for some time now but this is my first post.

Cheers !!



Gurus...
need advice on what to do..
I have EB2 with June 2008 PD. Most likely based on discussions in this forum it is not coming through for another year..Filed 485 in January 2012 got RFE in July have not heard back since then..so safe to assume preadj..
Wife has EB2 with with Oct 2006 PD. which came through after 485 was filed through my case..
My questions are...
Should we interfile (if that is the right term for such switch)..basically making primary as dependent and vice versa..is that even allowed..
How should we do it?? What documents to send?? Where?? How much time does it take??
Any advice would be great..

[newguy]

Gurus, Any COD predictions for the rest of the year and in 2014? Please no hard feelings ..Looks like we are getting side tracked with 485 related question in this forum from the users.

[bloke2000]

Thanks for the response ampradni..this really helps..my only concern is the time they take for such requests..I hope they reply within 2 months before oct 1st when dates will retrogress...crossing our fingers..if possible can you share the list of documents you submitted..

Looks like you will definitely be green in this current wave..

Thanks again


bloke2000,

We are in similar situation but with a different EB preference.

We applied I-485 for myself and my wife in Aug 2007 with my I-140(EB3-I, Dec 2004). Since then my wife's company did her I-140(EB2-I, Jun 2007).

Her date got current in Nov 2011. We called USCIS and asked if we could change the I-140 basis of the I-485 applications to my wife's I-140 in the EB2 category. I got an extremely helpful Level2 officer on the phone and he confirmed that we could do it by just sending an interfile request with all appropriate documentary evidence and a current EVL from my wife's employer.

Once we did that , we received a confirmation that they have received our request but it was not clear whether they "accepted" it. So we raised SR in Apr 2012. They responded in May 2012 that they have filed the letter in our files but just then EB2-I dates were retrogessed.

We plan to call them in August as soon as the dates are current to check on the status. Maybe we will plan to go to congressman/senator's office etc.

In your case both the PD dates are in the same EB preference but 2 years could save you some time. Please consult your attorney for more advice because we did (on Lawbench) and we got conflicting responses. Some attorneys recommended to file new I-485s with the new I-140. We ended up going with what the L2 officer told us. In either case I wanted to share that a L2 officer told us that it is possible and that we could do it using an interfile request ; however we have not seen any results so far :-(

A big THANK YOU to all the posters on this forum , especially Spec, Q, other individuals who are very helpful and have reduced the anxiety around this process. I have been lurking for some time now but this is my first post.

Cheers !!

[indiani]

Gurus, Any COD predictions for the rest of the year and in 2014? Please no hard feelings ..Looks like we are getting side tracked with 485 related question in this forum from the users.

go back to last post of Matt about the predictions, unless there is new data which might come in august I doubt there is any better prediction until then..

[GCKnowHow]

What a quite day. Next week this time it should be as active as a valcano. :)

[Eb2_Dec07]

What a quite day. Next week this time it should be as active as a valcano. :)

Indeed it is quiet. Usually we see some good quick wit messages from Indiani :-) . Get ready for a nailbiting few weeks in Aug starting in a week. I keep checking this forum almost every hour to see anything new. Good luck to all who are current in Aug bulletin.

PS: Is it worth calling the L2 to ask if case is pre-adjudicated ?

[civilengineer]

Probabilities of EB-2I cut-off date in September bulletin as of 7/25/2013. This is the impression I am getting from predictions made so far.:
Stays at Jan 1, 08 - 10%
Feb 1, 08 - 10%
Mar 1, 08 - 30%
Apr 1, 08 - 10%
May 1, 08 - 10%
June 1, 08 - 10%
July 1, 08 - 10%
Same as China Aug 8, 08 - 10%
Dec 31, 08 - 0%

[pseudonym]

Looks like one of the Trackitt users already received their GC today!

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1266334481/status-changed-to-card-production-pd-not-current-yet/page/3

Good luck to those who are current in August!

[erikbond101]

Probability percentage will be.:

Stays at Jan 1, 08 - 100%
Feb 1, 08 - 90%
Mar 1, 08 - 60%
Apr 1, 08 - 50%
May 1, 08 - 40%
June 1, 08 - 30%
July 1, 08 - 20%
Same as China Aug 8, 08 - 10%



Probabilities of EB-2I cut-off date in September bulletin as of 7/25/2013. This is the impression I am getting from predictions made so far.:
Stays at Jan 1, 08 - 10%
Feb 1, 08 - 10%
Mar 1, 08 - 30%
Apr 1, 08 - 10%
May 1, 08 - 10%
June 1, 08 - 10%
July 1, 08 - 10%
Same as China Aug 8, 08 - 10%
Dec 31, 08 - 0%

[erikbond101]

By looking at the past years movement with spillovers, it seems not enough time is there for CO to set COD equivalent with SO. If he had moved the date in July bulletin then it would have been a different story. Now IMO for Sept 13, he is going to set COD at-least 25-30% ahead of available SO. He can always internally retrogress COD in Sept as it was done in 2012.
From my perspective we may see movement of dates in range of May 08 to Aug 08 for SOFAD availability of 18K.

[indiani]

Indeed it is quiet. Usually we see some good quick wit messages from Indiani :-) . Get ready for a nailbiting few weeks in Aug starting in a week. I keep checking this forum almost every hour to see anything new. Good luck to all who are current in Aug bulletin.

PS: Is it worth calling the L2 to ask if case is pre-adjudicated ?

well as everyone is just waiting for the approvals to seep in and them flow , I didn't have much to add.

Please refrain from calling L2 atleast until a week after its current , just imagine if 10% of people will call i.e. 1000x10 min. wasted for L2. however if there is any issues to be resolved then obviously people can try to talk to L2.

only news for today as someone else already posted: someone received the GC in mail today on trackitt

[qesehmk]

Moved all the "Lawyer delays and employer exploitation" discussion in its own thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2174-Lawyer-Delays-amp-Employer-Exploitation)so that this thread keeps focused on calculations / predictions.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2174-Lawyer-Delays-amp-Employer-Exploitation

[sk.aggarwal]

Have been a silent reader on this thread. Thanks to all the Guru's to have such an informative forum.
I hate to ask specific Predictions but have a major decision to make around house, would appreciate your help.

Have been in US for 10 years. My PD is June 2010. By when do you think I should be able to file I-485, so I can get EAD. My wife will also be able to work then. Need to figure out this before we decide to buy house. Please help to advice.

[vizcard]

By looking at the past years movement with spillovers, it seems not enough time is there for CO to set COD equivalent with SO. If he had moved the date in July bulletin then it would have been a different story. Now IMO for Sept 13, he is going to set COD at-least 25-30% ahead of available SO. He can always internally retrogress COD in Sept as it was done in 2012.
From my perspective we may see movement of dates in range of May 08 to Aug 08 for SOFAD availability of 18K.

Not necessarily

The components are known demand, porting and new applications. Porting will be known (and approved) in the first 10 days (more or less) since its a "push the button" type exercise. New applications have no way of getting approved (regardless of category) so thats a big zero.

So unless there are a large number of unresolved RFEs, it will be fairly safe to move it only slightly ahead of available SOFAD.

[qesehmk]

sk - welcome to forum. The date being current is rather erratic. But I would say - worst case for you should be 4 years from now. Best case could be Sep 2014. Good luck with your decision regardless. Home ownership is a wonderful feeling and luckily anybody can buy a home in US as long as you have benjamin.


Have been a silent reader on this thread. Thanks to all the Guru's to have such an informative forum.
I hate to ask specific Predictions but have a major decision to make around house, would appreciate your help.

Have been in US for 10 years. My PD is June 2010. By when do you think I should be able to file I-485, so I can get EAD. My wife will also be able to work then. Need to figure out this before we decide to buy house. Please help to advice.

[vizcard]

Have been a silent reader on this thread. Thanks to all the Guru's to have such an informative forum.
I hate to ask specific Predictions but have a major decision to make around house, would appreciate your help.

Have been in US for 10 years. My PD is June 2010. By when do you think I should be able to file I-485, so I can get EAD. My wife will also be able to work then. Need to figure out this before we decide to buy house. Please help to advice.

A long time from now.... FY15 at the earliest IMO and probably later in the year if that. I wouldn't base any decisions on becoming current.

[rferni]

From the DOL website:
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf


PERM approval rate in Q2 and Q3 of FY2013 has a direct correlation on EB2-ROW demand for Q3 and Q4? Is it a fair assessment that lower PERM approval rates should mean the demand for FY 2013 EB2-ROW may be lower than what's estimated so far?

Or am I reading too much into this?

[rosharma]

My question of the day to all gurus is: Is there any way we can calculate (or speculate) amount of FB Visas consumed in FY 2013. In simple words, have we reached a point where we can say that there will be any SO (out of 24400 annual limit) from the FB category in FY 2014?

[Kanmani]

Not necessarily

The components are known demand, porting and new applications. Porting will be known (and approved) in the first 10 days (more or less) since its a "push the button" type exercise. New applications have no way of getting approved (regardless of category) so thats a big zero.

So unless there are a large number of unresolved RFEs, it will be fairly safe to move it only slightly ahead of available SOFAD.

Viz,

erikbond is somewhat correct, not exactly as he describes.

I was reading CO's notes from previous years' visa bulletins, Mr.Charlie has had vague knowledge of the exact demand, he was even singing the same song of unknown demand from up-graders in the year 2008. He said in one bulletin that the COD has been advanced more than required, primarily to accommodate the hidden demand into the DD ( not in exact same words).

There is an example shown in July 2008 visa bulletin, how unused visas are separated and distributed .

[mannyt]

Thoughts on delay for releasing demand data. Is it good news or bad ? Is it odd to hold it back.

[eb2china]

Hi,

Any predictions on eb2C for this year and 2014 ?

Thank you for the replies !

My PD is 06/2010

[Kanmani]

Thoughts on delay for releasing demand data. Is it good news or bad ? Is it odd to hold it back.

It is very much an usual practice of them, not to release DD sometimes.

[bvsamrat]

On the otherhand, it is quite possible to exceed atleast 20-30%.
The demand has to comeout in first week itself and gving only very few workings days(5-6 IMHO). Assuming that the pre-2007 adjudiciated porters numbering about 7,000 not in demand would resurafce in this time(How could sort all check/verify all and check the need to issue RFE if not in EB2? and not visible)


Not necessarily

The components are known demand, porting and new applications. Porting will be known (and approved) in the first 10 days (more or less) since its a "push the button" type exercise. New applications have no way of getting approved (regardless of category) so thats a big zero.

So unless there are a large number of unresolved RFEs, it will be fairly safe to move it only slightly ahead of available SOFAD.

[Spectator]

My question of the day to all gurus is: Is there any way we can calculate (or speculate) amount of FB Visas consumed in FY 2013. In simple words, have we reached a point where we can say that there will be any SO (out of 24400 annual limit) from the FB category in FY 2014?rosharma,

I don't think it is possible, or will be, until the FY2013 Visa Statistics are released.

I haven't seen any figures for FB usage.

The only thing I think we can say is that, because the decision to make F2A Current was made so late in the FY, it decreases the chance that all FB visas will be used and increases the chances that some extra FB visas will be available to EB in FY2014.

I do notice that other FB Cut Off Dates seem to have also been advanced more quickly, which would give them the opportunity to use any visas unused by F2A.

Spillover for FB is

F2A/B --> F3 --> F4 --> F1 --> F2A/B

Last year, the problem seemed to be with F2A-Mexico usage. I wonder whether DACA may have influenced F2A-Mexico usage. i.e. a number of those applicants were actually already in the USA undocumented. It's pure speculation on my part.

[Spectator]

Hi,

Any predictions on eb2C for this year and 2014 ?

Thank you for the replies !

My PD is 06/2010eb2china,

I am a little surprised that EB2-C has stalled at 08AUG08 in the August VB.

I don't think EB2-C will receive any spillover in FY2014 because EB2-I will have earlier PD. Nonetheless, it should be able to advance around a year.

I think your PD has a very good chance in FY2015.

Bear in mind it is difficult to speculate so far ahead.

[eb2china]

Thank for reply "Spectator" !!

wow 2015..i thought ..i might be able to file my 485 in 2014.

[Spectator]

Thank for reply "Spectator" !!

wow 2015..i thought ..i might be able to file my 485 in 2014.eb2china,

Treat it as speculation only.

The problem I see is that it might require 5k visas in FY2014 to cover a PD in June 2010 for EB2-C.

The normal allocation is 2.8k per year. It's difficult to see where an extra 2.2k would come from in FY2014, since EB2-I will use all spillover visas available.

Even the extra 18k FB visas this year only resulted in an increase to the EB2-C allocation of 360, so that is not the answer.

I believe EB2-C would also be entitled to a 7% proportion of any Fall Down from EB1, but that might only result in an extra 0.3-0.5k in FY2014.

I can't see a scenario where the extra required to cover June 2010 would be available in FY2014. Sorry.

[vizcard]

Viz,

erikbond is somewhat correct, not exactly as he describes.

I was reading CO's notes from previous years' visa bulletins, Mr.Charlie has had vague knowledge of the exact demand, he was even singing the same song of unknown demand from up-graders in the year 2008. He said in one bulletin that the COD has been advanced more than required, primarily to accommodate the hidden demand into the DD ( not in exact same words).

There is an example shown in July 2008 visa bulletin, how unused visas are separated and distributed .

I'm sure there are things that he knows or can speculate. He could also just move the dates ahead and let the chips fall (as erikbond suggests). Point is that fundamentally those are the variables that will determine COD and 2 are known for sure...porting is the only wildcard. Porting number of 5000 vs 7000 is a big difference. But I still can't see a scenario where it'll go to August as erikbond suggests. I dont think it'll even get to April (again unless CO is reckless).

[Kanmani]

I'm sure there are things that he knows or can speculate. He could also just move the dates ahead and let the chips fall (as erikbond suggests). Point is that fundamentally those are the variables that will determine COD and 2 are known for sure...porting is the only wildcard. Porting number of 5000 vs 7000 is a big difference. But I still can't see a scenario where it'll go to August as erikbond suggests. I dont think it'll even get to April (again unless CO is reckless).

I agree with your view, but there is a concern that how many of the 5000( my number) porting cases would reach the DD within first 10 days of August. In this case, he could move dates ahead as he did many times in the past.

If USCIS has a flexibility to give not just an approval notice, but the physical GC itself even before the PD is not current or due after 15 days, why don't they have the flexibility to add the up-graders into the DD prior to August 1?

Both the scenarios are possible.

[qesehmk]

rferni - looks like nobody answered this. The answer is yes - that is the most plausible and probably explanation.

However sometimes I have also seen very weird demand data quirks. But I would tend to think these are pretty much portings.
Can one or more experts please help me understand this cumulative demand data? This is what I gathered from DOS Demand Data releases between October 2012 and July 2013 for EB2 India.

The cutoff date for EB2-India has been set at 09/01/2004 starting October 2012 thru July 2013, so no one should be able to file new I-485 applications in this category this entire time - so how did the cumulative demand increase by 2,250 for priority dates prior to Jan 1 2008 within this same time frame? Are these EB3-I porters with cutoff dates prior to August 2007 who already have I-485s on file and have somehow requested an 'upgrade' while their priority dates were still not current?

Appreciate some insight from the experts.

[Spectator]

I have updated the PERM postings (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) in FACTS & DATA with the FY2013 Q3 Data released today.

Q3

Certified -- 6,720 -- 76.23%
Denied ----- 1,355 -- 15.37%
Withdrawn ---- 741 --- 8.40%

Total ------ 8,816

As expected the Denied number was lass than the PERM Factsheet showed.

Q1 - Q3

Certified - 27,848 -- 83.28%
Denied ----- 3,462 -- 10.25%
Withdrawn -- 2,129 --- 6.37%

Total ----- 33,439


INDIA Q3

Certified -- 4,158 -- 78.48%
Denied ------- 763 -- 14.40%
Withdrawn ---- 377 --- 7.12%

Total ------ 5,298

As expected the Denied number was lass than the PERM Factsheet showed.

INDIA Q1 - Q3

Certified - 16,510 -- 85.28%
Denied ----- 1,686 -- 8.71%
Withdrawn -- 1,164 --- 6.01%

Total ----- 19,360

Certifications for India represent 59.29% of Total Certifications.


Q,

The problem resolved itself after leaving it a few minutes, so please disregard my earlier email.

[MATT2012]

I agree with your view, but there is a concern that how many of the 5000( my number) porting cases would reach the DD within first 10 days of August. In this case, he could move dates ahead as he did many times in the past.

If USCIS has a flexibility to give not just an approval notice, but the physical GC itself even before the PD is not current or due after 15 days, why don't they have the flexibility to add the up-graders into the DD prior to August 1?

Both the scenarios are possible.

From the USCIS L2 conversations I followed in trackitt, USCIS is working on interfile cases now. if that is the case, a very high percentage of interfile cases may get converted to demand even before Sep bulletin comes out.

[Vkkpnm]

Hey guys, do you think immigration reform will pass this year? If yes, how much time it will take to fully implemented.

[vizcard]

Hey guys, do you think immigration reform will pass this year? If yes, how much time it will take to fully implemented.

I personally doubt it'll happen this year. They have about 4 months to introduce legislation, go thru cmte, full House, then a conference and a final vote.

Also I'm not quite sure what "fully implemented" means? The more important question is effective date once it has been passed.

[Vkkpnm]

What I meant after it gets passed, h4 spouse will have the option to start work immediately as this is one of their clause? Or as you said will it have effective date? How long the effective date can be?

[Kanmani]

Vkkpnm,

There will be a gap for sure after passing, probably step by step implementation just like Health care. The agencies will decide how long it might take to switch between current process to the new one.

[indiani]

From the USCIS L2 conversations I followed in trackitt, USCIS is working on interfile cases now. if that is the case, a very high percentage of interfile cases may get converted to demand even before Sep bulletin comes out.

In august all interfile cases will immediately be part of the demand as they would have to request visa for these cases, so even if they aren't approved right away they sure will be part in the DD for september

I also think that many inter filers can get approved before the original EB2 cases.

any significant movement in September ( perhaps upto 6 months as some are predicting ) will likely result in few 2007 or earlier cases left over

[veni001]

I have updated the PERM postings (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) in FACTS & DATA with the FY2013 Q3 Data released today.

............
............

INDIA Q1 - Q3

Certified - 16,510 -- 85.28%
Denied ----- 1,686 -- 8.71%
Withdrawn -- 1,164 --- 6.01%

Total ----- 19,360

Certifications for India represent 59.29% of Total Certifications.

..........
..........



Spec,
Thank you for the compilation. Upward trend in IND certification could lead to longer wait times in coming years, assuming no relief through reforms in near future!

IND certifications were 41% and 52% of total certifications in FY2010 & FY2011 respectively.

[MATT2012]

In august all interfile cases will immediately be part of the demand as they would have to request visa for these cases, so even if they aren't approved right away they sure will be part in the DD for september

I also think that many inter filers can get approved before the original EB2 cases.

any significant movement in September ( perhaps upto 6 months as some are predicting ) will likely result in few 2007 or earlier cases left over

if porting hits the lower range of expectations, together with the EB2ROW drops we are noticing in trackitt could help EB2I make a bigger jump. Another area where visa numbers are blocked is in EB2C's additional share of SO visas. if EB2C stalls where it is today even in next bulletin, EB2I will receive some more visas. That would possibly indicate, how spillovers are divided between retrogressed countries when cut off dates are different. My numbers have blocked EB2C with its share of additional SO, if I am not wrong Specs calculation also blocks it. Next bulletin may possibly be the first opportunity to understand DoS interpretation of SO rules in that regard.

There is a 3K difference(4K Vs. 7K) in porting assumptions+ 1-1.4 K blocking for EB2C is equivalent to support a 3+ months difference in calculation.

Spec: Thanks for updating the PERM data, it definitely helps in our early calculations for next fiscal.

[coolvibe]

Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
I have updated the PERM postings in FACTS & DATA with the FY2013 Q3 Data released today.

Spec- With the PERM Posting data do you see any change in predictions. Based on Guru's(Matt, Spec,Q etc) earlier Prediction I see Mar 1, 2008 is realistic date in Sept Bulletin.
Do you want give us your thoughts.

[vizcard]

Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
I have updated the PERM postings in FACTS & DATA with the FY2013 Q3 Data released today.

Spec- With the PERM Posting data do you see any change in predictions. Based on Guru's(Matt, Spec,Q etc) earlier Prediction I see Mar 1, 2008 is realistic date in Sept Bulletin.
Do you want give us your thoughts.

This PERM data won't affect the Sep VB. it will help FY14 calculations though.

[Spectator]

In august all interfile cases will immediately be part of the demand as they would have to request visa for these cases, so even if they aren't approved right away they sure will be part in the DD for september.indiani,

I'm not sure that is quite correct. The visa request is the very last action before approval i.e. the case is being adjudicated.

Come August 1, if a visa is requested for any case with a PD before Jan 1, 2009, then the PD will be Current, that visa will be immediately available and the case will be approved.

A number only remains in the Demand Data when the visa request is made and the visa is not immediately available.

If the case was not in the DD previously, it will never show in the DD if it is adjudicated when the PD is Current.

Clearly, if the case does not get adjudicated a visa request won't be made and the case won't appear in the DD either.

Only when the dates retrogress again will we see the cases left behind. Past history suggests they will trickle in over the course of several months.

It might be possible to see what the difference is between calculated approvals and the drop in the DD over the appropriate time period. The difference might be thought of as mainly porting cases that were not in the DD previously. Given there are also other factors, I'm not totally sold on that approach either. When the Visa Statistics are published for FY2013, a better estimate might be possible.

[vizcard]

indiani,

I'm not sure that is quite correct. The visa request is the very last action before approval i.e. the case is being adjudicated.

Come August 1, if a visa is requested for any case with a PD before Jan 1, 2009, then the PD will be Current, that visa will be immediately available and the case will be approved.

A number only remains in the Demand Data when the visa request is made and the visa is not immediately available.

If the case was not in the DD previously, it will never show in the DD if it is adjudicated when the PD is Current.

Clearly, if the case does not get adjudicated a visa request won't be made and the case won't appear in the DD either.

Only when the dates retrogress again will we see the cases left behind. Past history suggests they will trickle in over the course of several months.

It might be possible to see what the difference is between calculated approvals and the drop in the DD over the appropriate time period. The difference might be thought of as mainly porting cases that were not in the DD previously. Given there are also other factors, I'm not totally sold on that approach either. When the Visa Statistics are published for FY2013, a better estimate might be possible.

It won't be on the Sept demand data but it will be in the Oct one. I would assume that going forward "unknown demand" from porting will decline.

[indiani]

indiani,

I'm not sure that is quite correct. The visa request is the very last action before approval i.e. the case is being adjudicated.

Come August 1, if a visa is requested for any case with a PD before Jan 1, 2009, then the PD will be Current, that visa will be immediately available and the case will be approved.

A number only remains in the Demand Data when the visa request is made and the visa is not immediately available.

If the case was not in the DD previously, it will never show in the DD if it is adjudicated when the PD is Current.

Clearly, if the case does not get adjudicated a visa request won't be made and the case won't appear in the DD either.

Only when the dates retrogress again will we see the cases left behind. Past history suggests they will trickle in over the course of several months.

It might be possible to see what the difference is between calculated approvals and the drop in the DD over the appropriate time period. The difference might be thought of as mainly porting cases that were not in the DD previously. Given there are also other factors, I'm not totally sold on that approach either. When the Visa Statistics are published for FY2013, a better estimate might be possible.

I think you might be correct that the inter filing cases may not be included in DD but CO definitely should have some ( rather good) idea about how many of these cases are there , so I hope CO will actually keep it in consideration before planning COD for the last month of fiscal year.

I am hoping that they might be able to approve most of the cases in the first week before DD is released , even though that means more than 1000 a day, I just don't know how exactly the Pre-adjudicated cases are dealt with and how long they take to look at the file before approving , I hope you were in charge spec ( instead of CO) as its not that complicated to guess the exact movements if we have every data that's available to CO.

almost everyone knows some 2007 or earlier cases might be left out in this frenzy but what percentage and who will be effected can only be seen after sept.

[Spectator]

It won't be on the Sept demand data but it will be in the Oct one. I would assume that going forward "unknown demand" from porting will decline.vizcard,

I agree that unknown demand that can affect the FY approvals will decline.

This year was unprecedented in that there was a 15 month period of retrogression before the dates became Current. Ongoing, that should be in the 6-9 month range, depending on when retrogression starts in FY2014.

Also, eventually, but painfully slowly, the EB3-I dates will advance. That will shrink the number of years where porting applicants can already have a pending I-485 under EB3. More applicants will be filing I-485 for the first time and, if date movement is late in the year, stand much less chance of being approved in the same FY.

I'm not sure when the Demand will start to show. For any DD, the date the figures are compiled is about 3 weeks in advance of the VB month. Even if the dates retrogressed in October 2013, IMO the first DD that would reflect it fully might be the December DD which would have figures as at about November 7th i.e. about 3 weeks after retrogression has started. The November DD might show some effect (1 week), depending on how quickly the cases are being adjudicated. If visas run out before the end of September and retrogression starts in October, the number might be greater in the November DD.

The October DD will have numbers compiled on about September 7th.

I do realize there are differing opinions on what the DD represents.

[vizcard]

vizcard,

I agree that unknown demand that can affect the FY approvals will decline.

This year was unprecedented in that there was a 15 month period of retrogression before the dates became Current. Ongoing, that should be in the 6-9 month range, depending on when retrogression starts in FY2014.

Also, eventually, but painfully slowly, the EB3-I dates will advance. That will shrink the number of years where porting applicants can already have a pending I-485 under EB3. More applicants will be filing I-485 for the first time and, if date movement is late in the year, stand much less chance of being approved in the same FY.

I'm not sure when the Demand will start to show. For any DD, the date the figures are compiled is about 3 weeks in advance of the VB month. Even if the dates retrogressed in October 2013, IMO the first DD that would reflect it fully might be the December DD which would have figures as at about November 7th i.e. about 3 weeks after retrogression has started. The November DD might show some effect (1 week), depending on how quickly the cases are being adjudicated. If visas run out before the end of September and retrogression starts in October, the number might be greater in the November DD.

The October DD will have numbers compiled on about September 7th.

I do realize there are differing opinions on what the DD represents.


agreed.. i should have said "Oct onwards demand data".

[indiani]

vizcard,

I agree that unknown demand that can affect the FY approvals will decline.

This year was unprecedented in that there was a 15 month period of retrogression before the dates became Current. Ongoing, that should be in the 6-9 month range, depending on when retrogression starts in FY2014.

Also, eventually, but painfully slowly, the EB3-I dates will advance. That will shrink the number of years where porting applicants can already have a pending I-485 under EB3. More applicants will be filing I-485 for the first time and, if date movement is late in the year, stand much less chance of being approved in the same FY.

I'm not sure when the Demand will start to show. For any DD, the date the figures are compiled is about 3 weeks in advance of the VB month. Even if the dates retrogressed in October 2013, IMO the first DD that would reflect it fully might be the December DD which would have figures as at about November 7th i.e. about 3 weeks after retrogression has started. The November DD might show some effect (1 week), depending on how quickly the cases are being adjudicated. If visas run out before the end of September and retrogression starts in October, the number might be greater in the November DD.

The October DD will have numbers compiled on about September 7th.

I do realize there are differing opinions on what the DD represents.

"IVCRD has no information on applicants with approved I-140
Immigrant Worker petitions (nor for that matter, applicants having approved I-130 Alien
Relative petitions) where AOS is selected, but the AOS was not filed despite a prior filing
eligibility window, or the applicant was never eligible for AOS filing, and the I-485 cannot now
be filed due to priority date backlogs."

above from AILA presentation: I interpreted the above as - only cases where 485 is never filed wont be there in DD, for inter filings the 140 is attached to previously applied 485, the cases will be part of DD when the 485 is accepted IMO, visa number is requested after pre-adj when its current

if inter filers are already in DD then we should see a big jump in next bulletin perhaps 4 or more months but I am not quite confident about the above interpretation.

[vizcard]

"IVCRD has no information on applicants with approved I-140
Immigrant Worker petitions (nor for that matter, applicants having approved I-130 Alien
Relative petitions) where AOS is selected, but the AOS was not filed despite a prior filing
eligibility window, or the applicant was never eligible for AOS filing, and the I-485 cannot now
be filed due to priority date backlogs."

above from AILA presentation: I interpreted the above as - only cases where 485 is never filed wont be there in DD, for inter filings the 140 is attached to previously applied 485, the cases will be part of DD when the 485 is accepted IMO, visa number is requested after pre-adj when its current

if inter filers are already in DD then we should see a big jump in next bulletin perhaps 4 or more months but I am not quite confident about the above interpretation.


Your interpretation of the words is right but the conclusion is somewhat wrong. Every case with a pre-adjudicated 485 but without a visa number will be in demand data. So EB3 will bein EB3 demand data and EB2 will be in EB2 demand data. What it does not say is that they have visibility to number of cases switching from EB3 to EB2.

In other words, CO knows total backlog and split by original category but no (or at best limited) visibility to those that change categories.

PS: by the words, CO has visibility to all 485 backlog not just pre-adjudicated cases

[snrusa]

Guys (Q/Spec/Veni/Matt/Indiani/Vizcard/Kanmani/Others) - quick question reg. my I-485 approval process ..

PD 15NOV2007, getting current from Aug 1st. The status is still in "Initial Review" but i remember long time ago (during Mar/Apr 2012), i called USCIS and the L2 officer told that my case was Preadjudicated (donno whether its true or not)

Please let me know whether i need to do anything from my side, I am very nervous when the dates getting closer and closer ... Somewhere in Trackitt, i read that the cases who got RFE has a high chance of getting GC this time ... Do i have to pray to get an RFE now?

I really donno what to do ... Dont want to miss this time ... Appreciate your response ...

[Kanmani]

Guys (Q/Spec/Veni/Matt/Indiani/Vizcard/Kanmani/Others) - quick question reg. my I-485 approval process ..

PD 15NOV2007, getting current from Aug 1st. The status is still in "Initial Review" but i remember long time ago (during Mar/Apr 2012), i called USCIS and the L2 officer told that my case was Preadjudicated (donno whether its true or not)

Please let me know whether i need to do anything from my side, I am very nervous when the dates getting closer and closer ... Somewhere in Trackitt, i read that the cases who got RFE has a high chance of getting GC this time ... Do i have to pray to get an RFE now?

I really donno what to do ... Dont want to miss this time ... Appreciate your response ...

snrusa,

The whole batch of NSC filers didn't get the RFE too. Don't Worry. You will be greened very soon.

Wait and Watch trackitt for approvals with PD/service center closer to that of yours for a week, then start calling L-2 and later take Congressman route.

[indiani]

Guys (Q/Spec/Veni/Matt/Indiani/Vizcard/Kanmani/Others) - quick question reg. my I-485 approval process ..

PD 15NOV2007, getting current from Aug 1st. The status is still in "Initial Review" but i remember long time ago (during Mar/Apr 2012), i called USCIS and the L2 officer told that my case was Preadjudicated (donno whether its true or not)

Please let me know whether i need to do anything from my side, I am very nervous when the dates getting closer and closer ... Somewhere in Trackitt, i read that the cases who got RFE has a high chance of getting GC this time ... Do i have to pray to get an RFE now?

I really donno what to do ... Dont want to miss this time ... Appreciate your response ...

its not just you, most of them are in response review or initial review( mine), bottom line they are "reviewing" , when I called L2 she said your case is "under review" when I asked the same question .
not everyone got RFE, perhaps the computer randomly picked or some other reason, your chance is better than someone who got RFE as you don't have to worry whether the evidence will be convincing or not.

[indiani]

Your interpretation of the words is right but the conclusion is somewhat wrong. Every case with a pre-adjudicated 485 but without a visa number will be in demand data. So EB3 will bein EB3 demand data and EB2 will be in EB2 demand data. What it does not say is that they have visibility to number of cases switching from EB3 to EB2.

In other words, CO knows total backlog and split by original category but no (or at best limited) visibility to those that change categories.

PS: by the words, CO has visibility to all 485 backlog not just pre-adjudicated cases

I think CO should know all the inter filers and would have kept that number in consideration before moving the dates but I think someone who never applied 485 yet( either in Eb2 or EB3) will not be considered to calculate COD as it will be very very difficult for them to get GC this fiscal year

[Spectator]

I think CO should know all the inter filers and would have kept that number in consideration before moving the dates but I think someone who never applied 485 yet( either in Eb2 or EB3) will not be considered to calculate COD as it will be very very difficult for them to get GC this fiscal yearindiani,

It would be nice to think he did have that information, but I do not think CO has it for cases that completed after retrogression.

CO has said on multiple occasions that he does not have visibility on "upgrades" until they are approved (or at least when a visa is requested under EB2).

Only USCIS might be able to supply that information.

CO has also stated repeatedly that USCIS can not provide him with the required information because USCIS have told him that they do not keep track of "upgrades" either.

If he indeed CO does have quite accurate figures already, then I would not expect to see much movement of the COD for September. The level of "upgrades" is the figure that has the greatest uncertainty IMO and it is the uncertainty that is the biggest driver for further forward movement beyond what a better calculation of available spillover can allow.

[vizcard]

I think CO should know all the inter filers and would have kept that number in consideration before moving the dates but I think someone who never applied 485 yet( either in Eb2 or EB3) will not be considered to calculate COD as it will be very very difficult for them to get GC this fiscal year

Well "should" is the operative word here. In a perfect world, ofcourse he should have access to the entire pipeline real time. There should be absolutely no reason to make wild movements if it is based on real pipeline information. i mentioned this previously that the movement would first to be a point where he FELT that he would surely be able to cover the known demand and porting. Any future movement would be based on any additional spillover (which at this point is absolutely known).

Someone who never filed a 485 ofcourse wouldn't be in demand data because he/she was never adjudicated. By definition he/she wouldn't be in any demand (regardless of category).

[longwait100]

Even for the TSC folks who received the mass RFE, I take it their RFE responses should been already reviewed by now as its been more than a month now since most of the folks responded to it. I hope these cases should now be sitting in the pack of pre-adj. cases waiting for a push of the "approval" button starting Aug 1st..


its not just you, most of them are in response review or initial review( mine), bottom line they are "reviewing" , when I called L2 she said your case is "under review" when I asked the same question .
not everyone got RFE, perhaps the computer randomly picked or some other reason, your chance is better than someone who got RFE as you don't have to worry whether the evidence will be convincing or not.

[indiani]

indiani,

It would be nice to think he did have that information, but I do not think CO has it for cases that completed after retrogression.

CO has said on multiple occasions that he does not have visibility on "upgrades" until they are approved (or at least when a visa is requested under EB2).

Only USCIS might be able to supply that information.

CO has also stated repeatedly that USCIS can not provide him with the required information because USCIS have told him that they do not keep track of "upgrades" either.

If he indeed CO does have quite accurate figures already, then I would not expect to see much movement of the COD for September. The level of "upgrades" is the figure that has the greatest uncertainty IMO and it is the uncertainty that is the biggest driver for further forward movement beyond what a better calculation of available spillover can allow.

I think better description is that CO might have a fairly good idea of potential inter filers even though he doesn't have exact figure provided to him, assuming he can make guess based on his experience or some other data ( just like some of you are able to guess), which is sad as its quite easy to keep a track and get the data if they think its that important and if they want to change the internal process.

I might be a bit biased to think that CO might know the number approx. ( rounding to thousands) but logically thinking also he is the best person to guess to closest number in his department.

august 1st week will be quite interesting as the dynamics of this year are unprecedented.

I think I will put this issue to rest as I am not able to provide any meaningful/ useful info about this issue and I appreciate all your posts about porters and interfilers

[indiani]

Even for the TSC folks who received the mass RFE, I take it their RFE responses should been already reviewed by now as its been more than a month now since most of the folks responded to it. I hope these cases should now be sitting in the pack of pre-adj. cases waiting for a push of the "approval" button starting Aug 1st..

I wish there is a push button ( but I highly doubt it works that way ),it always baffles me why they made this process so complicated to give a GC to lawful, skilled residents ( sorry, couldn't stop ranting about this). But based on what I heard from others in the forum ( may be spec can comment on this) is that they will look at all the documents or other evidence for final time before approving, that's why they cant approve all pre-adj in one day.

My wildest dream is that on august 1st there will be a mass approval like the RFE's that were sent :)

[Kanmani]

Every case with a pre-adjudicated 485 but without a visa number will be in demand data. So EB3 will be in EB3 demand data and EB2 will be in EB2 demand data. What it does not say is that they have visibility to number of cases switching from EB3 to EB2.

In other words, CO knows total backlog and split by original category but no (or at best limited) visibility to those that change categories.




indiani,

CO has said on multiple occasions that he does not have visibility on "upgrades" until they are approved (or at least when a visa is requested under EB2).



Very Well Said ! (Viz and Spec)

The above information is not written on assumption, they were told by the concerned authorities over the years.

[indiani]

Very Well Said ! (Viz and Spec)

The above information is not written on assumption, they were told by the concerned authorities over the years.

kanmani ,
the point I was trying to make is that CO wont have the data in exact figures but he will be in a situation to guess what approx. number of filers could be there , anyway aug 1st week most of the info will be available

[Kanmani]

kanmani ,
the point I was trying to make is that CO wont have the data in exact figures but he will be in a situation to guess what approx. number of filers could be there , anyway aug 1st week most of the info will be available

Indiani, that post was a common post to all, just to make sure the message is noted.

You may remember one of my earlier post, I tried to explain the entire process in a diluted version. I don't know if it was a success or failure attempt.

Again coming to the subject, CO is just like any one of us in this matter. His guess could be the same as our guess. He has seen the entire 2013 was held by up-graders so far, that is why he expects more hidden demand.

DoS and DHS are two different ministries( just like India) not co-operating each other.

The main reason for this is, the applications are dealt by thousands of Adjudicators, not grouped under one chief of the ministry to report to the other ministry's chief.

[qesehmk]

Kanmani - you put it very well. Broadly speaking i agree except that - CO is much better positioned than us and the process of green card allocation - while does follow rules - also is bent jointly by DoS and DHS and DoL (don't forget the third ministery) to meet certain political objectives.

So othre than that minor difference of opinion - I think this was a great post by you. I wish the forum software had someway to recognize great posts in golden border or something so that readers could get attracted to those posts and not have to read entire thread.

Indiani, that post was a common post to all, just to make sure the message is noted.

You may remember one of my earlier post, I tried to explain the entire process in a diluted version. I don't know if it was a success or failure attempt.

Again coming to the subject, CO is just like any one of us in this matter. His guess could be the same as our guess. He has seen the entire 2013 was held by up-graders so far, that is why he expects more hidden demand.

DoS and DHS are two different ministries( just like India) not co-operating each other.

The main reason for this is, the applications are dealt by thousands of Adjudicators, not grouped under one chief of the ministry to report to the other ministry's chief.

[Spectator]

kanmani ,
the point I was trying to make is that CO wont have the data in exact figures but he will be in a situation to guess what approx. number of filers could be there , anyway aug 1st week most of the info will be availableindiani,

There's no doubt this is a subject of much frustration.

Here's my thoughts on what we might deduce and CO might know to base an estimate on. CO might also have extra information unknown to us.

Since the EB2-I COD has not moved, we can probably deduce that in the 10 months to August 1, EB2-I should have used about ((9 * 9%) + (1/3 * 19%)) * 3,163 = 2,762 visas, if EB2-I has just received the minimum allowed by 7% of the 45,188 EB2 allocation. I see no reason why EB2-I would have received less than that amount.

It's therefore fair to assume that the 01SEP04 COD was capable of consuming 3k for the full year.

Porting numbers for that COD represent no more than 2 years (EB3-I ended FY2012 at 08OCT02).

Roughly that is a rate of 1.5k / FY / PD CY.

September 2004 through July 2007 represents the time period when someone upgrading from EB3 to EB2 might already have an I-485 on file and pre-adjudicated. That is roughly a 3 year period. Cases any later than that will have to file an I-485 for the first time, with little to no chance of being approved this FY.

That gives a realistic upper limit of a further 1.5 * 3 = 4.5k porting cases that might become current from August 1 - September 30, 2013. No doubt some of those are older than the beginning of retrogression and are counted in the DD already. I wouldn't like to put a figure on that number. That of course assumes the rate of upgrades beyond August 2004 is similar. That may, of course, not be a fair assumption. It's not difficult to think of reasons why it could be either higher or lower in later years.

Do we know any more than that?

Either way, I think we are talking about a few thousand cases that are not currently in the DD that could be approved this FY.

[suninphx]

Indiani, that post was a common post to all, just to make sure the message is noted.

You may remember one of my earlier post, I tried to explain the entire process in a diluted version. I don't know if it was a success or failure attempt.

Again coming to the subject, CO is just like any one of us in this matter. His guess could be the same as our guess. He has seen the entire 2013 was held by up-graders so far, that is why he expects more hidden demand.

DoS and DHS are two different ministries( just like India) not co-operating each other.

The main reason for this is, the applications are dealt by thousands of Adjudicators, not grouped under one chief of the ministry to report to the other ministry's chief.

Kanmani - well said.

I always enjoy your posts. They are informative , well researched and most importantly have positive tone ( such a rare thing these days :) ).

[Kanmani]

Q, Thank you for your words. I compared CO with us only in the context of hidden demand. Otherwise I could only watch him playing golf with Sportfan's attorney (through fence):)

My only concern about the forum features is 'SEARCH', which is currently not up to the mark.

[Kanmani]

Sun,

That positive tone is unavoidable while being in the queue. Otherwise, I am a worst critic.

[wolverine82]

Kanmani - well said.

I always enjoy your posts. They are informative , well researched and most importantly have positive tone ( such a rare thing these days :) ).

I would second what sun had said ...the posts posted by all gurus are most informative and also the tone is so positive. All the folks in this forum are so decent and respect each other's views if they don't agree which is very rare to see now a days.

Glad to be part of such wonderful forum and thanks for Q to have started and maintaining it and also Thanks to other gurus for keeping all of us informed and clarifying all our q's and concerns..

[seattlet]

Spec,
Could it be that CO did not allocate 7% to EB2 I so as to payback EB2 ROW for the extra visas that he borrowed last year (for EB2 I) and made it unavailable ?
Maybe CO's strategy was to limit EB2I to 1000 visas or less initially and allocate rest to EB2 ROW (which was potentially backlogged). End of year he can allocate spillover
to EB2 I.



indiani,

There's no doubt this is a subject of much frustration.

Here's my thoughts on what we might deduce and CO might know to base an estimate on. CO might also have extra information unknown to us.

Since the EB2-I COD has not moved, we can probably deduce that in the 10 months to August 1, EB2-I should have used about ((9 * 9%) + (1/3 * 19%)) * 3,163 = 2,762 visas, if EB2-I has just received the minimum allowed by 7% of the 45,188 EB2 allocation. I see no reason why EB2-I would have received less than that amount.

It's therefore fair to assume that the 01SEP04 COD was capable of consuming 3k for the full year.

Porting numbers for that COD represent no more than 2 years (EB3-I ended FY2012 at 08OCT02).

Roughly that is a rate of 1.5k / FY / PD CY.

September 2004 through July 2007 represents the time period when someone upgrading from EB3 to EB2 might already have an I-485 on file and pre-adjudicated. That is roughly a 3 year period. Cases any later than that will have to file an I-485 for the first time, with little to no chance of being approved this FY.

That gives a realistic upper limit of a further 1.5 * 3 = 4.5k porting cases that might become current from August 1 - September 30, 2013. No doubt some of those are older than the beginning of retrogression and are counted in the DD already. I wouldn't like to put a figure on that number. That of course assumes the rate of upgrades beyond August 2004 is similar. That may, of course, not be a fair assumption. It's not difficult to think of reasons why it could be either higher or lower in later years.

Do we know any more than that?

Either way, I think we are talking about a few thousand cases that are not currently in the DD that could be approved this FY.

[vizcard]

Spec,
Could it be that CO did not allocate 7% to EB2 I so as to payback EB2 ROW for the extra visas that he borrowed last year (for EB2 I) and made it unavailable ?
Maybe CO's strategy was to limit EB2I to 1000 visas or less initially and allocate rest to EB2 ROW (which was potentially backlogged). End of year he can allocate spillover
to EB2 I.

It's possible but unlikely. There is no indication that EB2ROW need more than its regular allocation + FB overflow to stay current. Also, that strategy would be willfully breaking the law.

[indiani]

I think the GC approvals on trackitt for eb2i so far have been original EB2 cases with RD of dec 2011 ( PD late 2007),
too early to say but we might see a trend based on RD

[rferni]

rferni - looks like nobody answered this. The answer is yes - that is the most plausible and probably explanation.

However sometimes I have also seen very weird demand data quirks. But I would tend to think these are pretty much portings.

qesehmk: many thanks for your response. I read a lot of subsequent threads where the consensus was pretty much that the DOS has no visibility into porting demand until a request for a visa number is made - which cannot happen until the date is current.

If as you mention, this data seems to suggest that a maximum of 2550 porting upgrades with priority dates prior to 01/01/2008 are already included in July 2013 demand data, is it possible that the USCIS has now developed the capability of recognizing potential EB3 I-485 filings that can be linked to subsequent EB2 I-140s - and making an EB2 visa request in advance of the EB2 priority date becoming current?

I understand this is all speculation, but it is confusing nevertheless...

[qesehmk]

It depends on what people mean by visibility.

But the fact that DOS retrogresses EB2I into 2004 in early part of FY (i.e. Q1) means they knew that there were at least 3K portings that were going to increase then known EB2I cases in 485 inventory.

So in short the answer is - DoS has to have some visibility in order to retrogress dates. When they see it they update demand data and we see the anamoly of EB2I receiving cases from era where dates are not current. Make sense?

qesehmk: many thanks for your response. I read a lot of subsequent threads where the consensus was pretty much that the DOS has no visibility into porting demand until a request for a visa number is made - which cannot happen until the date is current.

If as you mention, this data seems to suggest that a maximum of 2550 porting upgrades with priority dates prior to 01/01/2008 are already included in July 2013 demand data, is it possible that the USCIS has now developed the capability of recognizing potential EB3 I-485 filings that can be linked to subsequent EB2 I-140s - and making an EB2 visa request in advance of the EB2 priority date becoming current?

I understand this is all speculation, but it is confusing nevertheless...

[longwait100]

the suspense has started to build in my head....I continue to wait for my turn with mixed feelings (excited for being so close {again} yet nervous about the unexpected)!


I think the GC approvals on trackitt for eb2i so far have been original EB2 cases with RD of dec 2011 ( PD late 2007),
too early to say but we might see a trend based on RD

[rferni]

Make sense?

It does ... thank you.

So basically, there is a possibility that some porting cases are baked into known demand. In short, that should in theory, reduce 'unknown' porting demand - hopefully translating into more unused visas for September 2013. Trying to put a positive spin on it for now ... but we'll wait and see in a couple weeks or so.

[qesehmk]

porting cases cant get approved unless they are baked into demand data from retrogressed categories. That includes EB2IC. For EB2ROW however I am not entirely sure.

So I will take at face value whatever Aug published demand data shows for EB2IC. And any further EB2IC porting surprises should be nil or minimal.

p.s. - Because of the extra 18K from FB - this is year is going to turn out good. Rest assured. I will be damned if it doesnt and that would only mean one and one thing - that EB3ROW portings are in full swing that they are consuming EB1/4/5 spillover. But I am optimistic that EB3ROW portings are not to that level yet.


It does ... thank you.

So basically, there is a possibility that some porting cases are baked into known demand. In short, that should in theory, reduce 'unknown' porting demand - hopefully translating into more unused visas for September 2013. Trying to put a positive spin on it for now ... but we'll wait and see in a couple weeks or so.

[Spectator]

It does ... thank you.

So basically, there is a possibility that some porting cases are baked into known demand. In short, that should in theory, reduce 'unknown' porting demand - hopefully translating into more unused visas for September 2013. Trying to put a positive spin on it for now ... but we'll wait and see in a couple weeks or so.rferni,

Yes, but they will likely be cases that completed the interfiling process, but weren't adjudicated, before retrogression in June 2012.

That would still leave 14 months of "unknown" cases with a PD of September 01, 2004 onwards.

[iblveicanget]

Thanks for the good work guys. I just did not want to be a silent reader any more :)

I almost read all the predictions here. But..one question I could not resist asking here is, what is the probablity (in terms of real known numbers) that dates might not move at all? As you see, being so close to the current COD I could not stop thinking of VB!


Again, Keep up the great work guys. This forum is informative.

[rferni]

Yes understood - thanks to both qesehmk and Spec. I am certainly better informed now ... :)



That would still leave 14 months of "unknown" cases with a PD of September 01, 2004 onwards.

Regarding this quote from Spec: I understand there's still an unknown component of porting demand for EB2I, but given some of the demand is already known and incorporated into DD, do you guys still estimate the "unknown" porting demand in August 2013 to be within the 4K - 7K range? Or is it somewhat lower?

[Spectator]

Thanks for the good work guys. I just did not want to be a silent reader any more :)

I almost read all the predictions here. But..one question I could not resist asking here is, what is the probablity (in terms of real known numbers) that dates might not move at all? As you see, being so close to the current COD I could not stop thinking of VB!


Again, Keep up the great work guys. This forum is informative.iblveicanget,

Welcome to the forum.

The unknowns are too large to answer that question.

I personally believe the possibility is extremely low, but not zero.

I think you will be fine.

[iblveicanget]

iblveicanget,

Welcome to the forum.

The unknowns are too large to answer that question.

I personally believe the possibility is extremely low, but not zero.

I think you will be fine.

Thanks! Not to be selfish, but I like your last statement, that makes me happy :)

[erikbond101]

Another trackitt EB2I user from Sep 2007 got GC...
http://www.trackitt.com/member/ei1996

Looks like most pending 2004- Dec 2007 will be part of adjudication/clearing process by Aug first week and will be cleared by Aug 30. So in Sep 13 bulletin, CO should have good idea about porters specifically pre-July 2007 and can guesstimate COD quite accurately. But again not all will be approved if CO retrogresses the dates on Sep 10 (for Oct 13). I'm pretty sure maximum 80-90% will get approved by Sep 30. 10% of total cases (15000 SO) will be 1500 extra margin in calculation.

[erikbond101]

My above assumption/prediction is based on previous inventory data.

In May/June 2011 inventory around 5400 cases were pending from Oct 2006-Dec 2006

In Oct 2011 inventory there were 900+ cases pending from Oct 2006-Dec 2006.

In July 2011 EB2 Cutoff date moved from Oct 06 to March 07. When Oct 11 pending inventory was collected, Oct 06-Dec 06 was already current for around 3 months but 1/6th cases were still pending. Remember May 11 inventory may not have porters but Oct 11 inventory should have most of the porters. Also most of these already had pending I-485s. So that means if 3 months were not enough for 16-17% of applications, 2 months can not be enough this time also.

[vizcard]

Another trackitt EB2I user from Sep 2007 got GC...
http://www.trackitt.com/member/ei1996

Looks like most pending 2004- Dec 2007 will be part of adjudication/clearing process by Aug first week and will be cleared by Aug 30. So in Sep 13 bulletin, CO should have good idea about porters specifically pre-July 2007 and can guesstimate COD quite accurately. But again not all will be approved if CO retrogresses the dates on Sep 10 (for Oct 13). I'm pretty sure maximum 80-90% will get approved by Sep 30. 10% of total cases (15000 SO) will be 1500 extra margin in calculation.


My above assumption/prediction is based on previous inventory data.

In May/June 2011 inventory around 5400 cases were pending from Oct 2006-Dec 2006

In Oct 2011 inventory there were 900+ cases pending from Oct 2006-Dec 2006.

In July 2011 EB2 Cutoff date moved from Oct 06 to March 07. When Oct 11 pending inventory was collected, Oct 06-Dec 06 was already current for around 3 months but 1/6th cases were still pending. Remember May 11 inventory may not have porters but Oct 11 inventory should have most of the porters. Also most of these already had pending I-485s. So that means if 3 months were not enough for 16-17% of applications, 2 months can not be enough this time also.

Im struggling to understand the "so what" of these two posts. Help me out here.

[erikbond101]

It means final COD will be based on
I-485 pending+ porters + 15-20% extra margin

Assuming 18K SO
12K (I-485 number)+6K (porters) will take COD to some date in April 2008 and considering 3K (margin) will take COD to May 2008.

[Spectator]

My above assumption/prediction is based on previous inventory data.

In May/June 2011 inventory around 5400 cases were pending from Oct 2006-Dec 2006

In Oct 2011 inventory there were 900+ cases pending from Oct 2006-Dec 2006.

In July 2011 EB2 Cutoff date moved from Oct 06 to March 07. When Oct 11 pending inventory was collected, Oct 06-Dec 06 was already current for around 3 months but 1/6th cases were still pending. Remember May 11 inventory may not have porters but Oct 11 inventory should have most of the porters. Also most of these already had pending I-485s. So that means if 3 months were not enough for 16-17% of applications, 2 months can not be enough this time also.erikbond101,

I don't disagree with what you are saying. Clearly not all cases will be approved and some will be left behind. That will neccessitate some contingency above what the raw figures might say.

I think you also need to consider whether some of those cases in the October 2011 Inventory were actually new first time filings that had not yet been adjudicated.

Between the end of May 2011 and October 2011 the COD had moved from 01JUL06 to 15APR07. All October, November and December 2006 were not Current until July 2011.

There may not have been that many, but it would quickly affect the % calculation.

Just a thought.

PS:- I had a quick look at the PERM figures for Oct-Dec 2006 Received Date. About 4k were Certified after August 2007, none of which could not have been Current to submit an I-485 until June/July 2011. Not sure how many EB2 cases that would convert to back then.

[vizcard]

It means final COD will be based on
I-485 pending+ porters + 15-20% extra margin

Assuming 18K SO
12K (I-485 number)+6K (porters) will take COD to some date in April 2008 and considering 3K (margin) will take COD to May 2008.

Agree with the concept, not the math. First, I'm assuming by 18k spillover, you mean SOFAD (ie incl original allocation+FB overflow). Otherwise that would be the first assumption that would differentiate us. I don't think we have 21k SOFAD and the rest of the post would be meaningless. :)

There's 12k demand up to jan 1,2008. You add in 6k porters, you have already maxed out your 18k spillover.Not sure how you got to April there.

Even if you assume some porting is in the demand and not all cases will be approved, to get to may 2008, a third of those 18k would need to remain unapproved (would need another 6k). That's highly unlikely IMO.

PS: my hope is that not too many ppl get left behind. It is frustrating for them and for ppl after the COD to see the future CODs move so slowly.

[wolverine82]

Vizcard if i am not wrong there is 8k demand till Jan 1 2008 and i think the other 4k(Jan-Apr) will take it till sometime in April .
Agree with the concept, not the math. First, I'm assuming by 18k spillover, you mean SOFAD (ie incl original allocation+FB overflow). Otherwise that would be the first assumption that would differentiate us. I don't think we have 21k SOFAD and the rest of the post would be meaningless. :)

There's 12k demand up to jan 1,2008. You add in 6k porters, you have already maxed out your 18k spillover.Not sure how you got to April there.

Even if you assume some porting is in the demand and not all cases will be approved, to get to may 2008, a third of those 18k would need to remain unapproved (would need another 6k). That's highly unlikely IMO.

PS: my hope is that not too many ppl get left behind. It is frustrating for them and for ppl after the COD to see the future CODs move so slowly.

You are right ... I double counted.

[Kanmani]

Guys, Can somebody break that 12k demand upto jan 2008 please ? I am confused and could see only 8050 in the DD . Feels like sitting in the board exam hall, completely blank before getting the QP.

[Spectator]

Vizcard if i am not wrong there is 8k demand till Jan 1 2008 and i think the other 4k(Jan-Apr) will take it till sometime in April .wolverine82,

Yes, that is true and is the more likely derivation of the April date. But that would not take into account that approvals have already taken place, which should be added to the remaining demand.

By August, EB2-I will have already have 2.8k approvals and PDs before September 2004 can expect to use the entire 3.2k initial allocation by the end of the FY.

So the real number of visas required to reach a COD of 01JAN08 is nearer 8.2 + 3.2 = 11.4k (if all cases were approved).

Edit:- I think the original 6k porting figure from the OP includes the 3.2k approvals before PD Sept 2004, leaving a further 2.8k porting for Sept 2004-July 2007 PD that will be approved.

[Spectator]

Thanks spec. That means SOFAD = 11.4K --> 1/2008. So SOFAD of 15K --> 4/2008. Is this correct?sport,

Yes, that is the what I would get as well assuming all cases were approved and exclusive of any porting beyond the 3.2k number.

[primus]

Gurus,

I am sending my I-485, Advance Parol and EAD application for myself, wife and daughter to Phoenix Lockbox by Fedex overnight on Jul 31st.
Do I need to make 3 separate envelopes for us, or we can put all in one big envelop?

Any last minute suggestions will be appreciated as well.

[qesehmk]

Primus - I don't have any first hand knowledge. But I guess I would rather send it separate. Sorry can't help any further. May be others can.
Gurus,

I am sending my I-485, Advance Parol and EAD application for myself, wife and daughter to Phoenix Lockbox by Fedex overnight on Jul 31st.
Do I need to make 3 separate envelopes for us, or we can put all in one big envelop?

Any last minute suggestions will be appreciated as well.

[GCKnowHow]

Gurus,

I am sending my I-485, Advance Parol and EAD application for myself, wife and daughter to Phoenix Lockbox by Fedex overnight on Jul 31st.
Do I need to make 3 separate envelopes for us, or we can put all in one big envelop?

Any last minute suggestions will be appreciated as well.

I have no experience, but I came accross this
http://****************.org/forum/forum70-self-filing-documents-forms-directions-mailing/2698580-self-filed-485-approved-steps-for-filing.html