EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

[Spectator]

Spec - Indeed I meant EB2C. I was so much hung up on that even when I was reading EB3C it registered as EB2C.

Anyway ... but that's what I am thinking that EB2IC will probably catch up in the best case scenario). WE will see.Q,

I hope your interpretation is correct.

The numbers available to EB2-C are partly dependent on the amount of FD from EB1. I hope that EB2-C coming to a halt is not because CO now thinks there will be less available from that source. It may also hint that there have been large numbers of new applications/porting generated for EB2-C by the continued forward movement. We don't have very good visibility on EB2-C numbers of actual approvals (either official or derived).

[fedupwithgc]

As per DD/Inventory look up, it looks like 8K SO to move dates to JAN 01 2008. How much more spillover do you guys think we will have to move forward in the month of Sep ? Looking at previous years, we should have another 8K will takes us to Jul 2008 ....

[qesehmk]

Oh yes ... what I laid out is a possibility and hope rather than interpretation. But honestly 1 Jan 08 in August is a good start.

I am more than 50% confident that Sep we will see something more upto 6 months
Q,

I hope your interpretation is correct.

The numbers available to EB2-C are partly dependent on the amount of FD from EB1. I hope that EB2-C coming to a halt is not because CO now thinks there will be less available from that source. It may also hint that there have been large numbers of new applications/porting generated for EB2-C by the continued forward movement. We don't have very good visibility on EB2-C numbers of actual approvals (either official or derived).

[fedupwithgc]

Oh yes ... what I laid out is a possibility and hope rather than interpretation. But honestly 1 Jan 08 in August is a good start.

I am more than 50% confident that Sep we will see something more upto 6 months
My PD is July 07 2008 and hoping to be current next month

[Guest123]

Porting might consume the remaining spill over if any..
As per DD/Inventory look up, it looks like 8K SO to move dates to JAN 01 2008. How much more spillover do you guys think we will have to move forward in the month of Sep ? Looking at previous years, we should have another 8K will takes us to Jul 2008 ....

[fedupwithgc]

Porting might consume the remaining spill over if any..

By the time porting numbers reach the demand, we would have crossed the FY since it takes couple of months to get fingerprinting done plus RFE, if any. So I am thinking people who are applying in AUG have no chance to get approved by end of FY.

[desitiger]

By the time porting numbers reach the demand, we would have crossed the FY since it takes couple of months to get fingerprinting done plus RFE, if any. So I am thinking people who are applying in AUG have no chance to get approved by end of FY.

Any chance of date moving beyond March 2008 this fiscal? Never filed I-485 and missed it this time by two months :(

[Guest123]

By the time porting numbers reach the demand, we would have crossed the FY since it takes couple of months to get fingerprinting done plus RFE, if any. So I am thinking people who are applying in AUG have no chance to get approved by end of FY.

EB3 porters (Sep 2004 - Aug 2007) who already filed for 485 and ported to EB2 might consume a big chunk of the spillover. I assume these are not included in the demand data yet as the PD porting would happen now during this window.

[Vkkpnm]

Ooohoooo :)

[kd2008]

Q,

I hope your interpretation is correct.

The numbers available to EB2-C are partly dependent on the amount of FD from EB1. I hope that EB2-C coming to a halt is not because CO now thinks there will be less available from that source. It may also hint that there have been large numbers of new applications/porting generated for EB2-C by the continued forward movement. We don't have very good visibility on EB2-C numbers of actual approvals (either official or derived).

Spec, Could you please elaborate how CO might move dates based on the possible scenario you describe above?

The August visa bulletin has a turn of phrase that has confused me,"India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit."

So is CO only considering fall across in this month? and not fall down?

If so, should September bulletin yield a fall down based movement? It may also be the case that the porting demand increases rapidly and no movement happens.

Thanks as always for your insight.

[axialtilt]

The slides are pretty good in explaining how the process works, for eg: 140 approved and just waiting to apply 485 cases will not be reflected in DD, and EB3 and EB2 are counted twice, FB spillover etc.,
But spec probably knows everything thats there and even more.
It just didn't have the PD of august
the audio will be released a week from now and I dont know why they start selling it now when the audio is not yet uploaded.

Hi indiani, please post the more info from the presentation when you have it ready. The first prediction of Jan 1, 2008 did come true. I wonder what other info was given in the conference about possible further movement.

[vizcard]

Spec, Could you please elaborate how CO might move dates based on the possible scenario you describe above?

The August visa bulletin has a turn of phrase that has confused me,"India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit."

So is CO only considering fall across in this month? and not fall down?

If so, should September bulletin yield a fall down based movement? It may also be the case that the porting demand increases rapidly and no movement happens.

Thanks as always for your insight.

When CO says "overall Employment Second preference annual limit", it includes FD from EB1 (and consequently EB4 and EB5).

[Kanmani]

Spec,

I too have a doubt in interpreting the phrase.

Is it that this advancement alone will fully utilize all the numbers? Does it sound like that?

[indiani]

Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: July 8, 2013

why is it that we could this only today ( not a major problem though to wiat extra day ), based on my expectations this should have been released yesterday, anyway the date is where everyone told it is going to be, so will wait for the emails filling out inboxes next month

[Spectator]

Spec, Could you please elaborate how CO might move dates based on the possible scenario you describe above?

The August visa bulletin has a turn of phrase that has confused me,"India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit."

So is CO only considering fall across in this month? and not fall down?

If so, should September bulletin yield a fall down based movement? It may also be the case that the porting demand increases rapidly and no movement happens.

Thanks as always for your insight.kd2008,

I just read the phrase
the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit to mean the original 45k plus any Fall Down from EB1. Numbers can't be available to EB2-I until they are in EB2.

In the INA, the numbers available to Second Preference is defined as
Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraph (1) where 28.6% this year equates to 45,188 and paragraph (1) refers to EB1.

It is my belief that is how CO is using the phrase.

By the end of August, EB2-I will have already used almost all the 3.2k from the normal quota. Additionally, there is the potential 8k shown in the demand plus all the pent up porting cases from June 2012 to August 2013 to come into the demand.

That could easily be a potential 15k in total (although since not all cases will get approved it is actually probably less than that).

My point is that we're most likely only looking at a few thousand or so to come in September to use up the numbers available, which limits how far the dates can move.

[Spectator]

Spec,

I too have a doubt in interpreting the phrase.

Is it that this advancement alone will fully utilize all the numbers? Does it sound like that?Kanmani,

That is always a possibility and that there will be no further movement in September. Currently, I do think some movement is possible in September, but maybe not that much. I think it depends on EB1 and EB2-WW performance before the last VB of the year is published.

I'm sure CO has made the phrase deliberately open to multiple interpretations.

[qesehmk]

Viz - I saw Spec's interpretation which is along your lines.

I think Annual limit if left open to interpretation as FD + EB2 category limit then loses the meaning of the phrase "Annual Limit".

By definition limit is has to be hard coded at an absolute number or absolute %.

So I am 100% confident that there will be movement in Sep and now that I think of it ... I think its going to be perhaps 6-9 months instead of 0-6 months which is what I said. The simple reason being that if FA is allowing movement upto Jan 2008 then I am expecting even bigger FD. So lets see how it goes. 31 days from now.


When CO says "overall Employment Second preference annual limit", it includes FD from EB1 (and consequently EB4 and EB5).

[Spectator]

Viz - I saw Spec's interpretation which is along your lines.

I think Annual limit if left open to interpretation as FD + EB2 category limit then loses the meaning of the phrase "Annual Limit".

By definition limit is has to be hard coded at an absolute number or absolute %.

So I am 100% confident that there will be movement in Sep and now that I think of it ... I think its going to be perhaps 6-9 months instead of 0-6 months which is what I said. The simple reason being that if FA is allowing movement upto Jan 2008 then I am expecting even bigger FD. So lets see how it goes. 31 days from now.Q,

Fall Across alone from EB2-WW could not have allowed the COD to move to 01JAN08 in the August VB.

FA in EB2 will either be a very low number, zero or slightly negative (i.e. EB2-WW would use some FD). To move the COD in the August VB to 01JAN08, FD must have been assumed.

I guess we can just disagree (in a very friendly way of course) and see what the September VB brings.

PS:- In the July VB, CO wrote

At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. In this context, CO clearly includes FD in his definition of
“otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers otherwise mentioning September would make no sense.

[geevikram]

Guys,
Was demand data ever released for this month?

[indiani]

"

So I am 100% confident that there will be movement in Sep and now that I think of it ... I think its going to be perhaps 6-9 months instead of 0-6 months which is what I said. The simple reason being that if FA is allowing movement upto Jan 2008 then I am expecting even bigger FD. So lets see how it goes. 31 days from now"

Q,
I think its impossible with FA alone to make CO move to jan 2008 ( FD surely is used )
will it many more months is september? - I seem to think it might move few months, probably 2-3

[qesehmk]

Spec - it's a pleasure to even disagree with you!! So don't worry about that.

I agree with you that indeed FA wouldn't have been sufficient to move to Jan 2008 (esp with my concerns about EB3ROW porting. I think that is one last remaining thing I am not sure I have really cracked it that well yet).

However - I am thinking that it is not impossible either. e.g. many times people look at last years backlog, and this years demand and then they add together. Well that's not the right approach. One should always subtract 1/3rd of this year's demand because that is rolling backlog that even a current category will always have because of 485 processing timelines. 4 Months of processing means 1/3 year of rolling backlog. That's why I won't entirely rule out FA satisfying movement through Jan 2008.

p.s. - I think it is also possible that Jan 2008 might be a bit of overshot since neither CO may have that perfect understanding of demand. So in that regard I echo Kanmani's sentiment on whether indeed date movement means all demand will be satisfied.

pps - Indiani - I think this probably also answers your post.

Q,

Fall Across alone from EB2-WW could not have allowed the COD to move to 01JAN08 in the August VB.

FA in EB2 will either be a very low number, zero or slightly negative. To move the COD in the August VB to 01JAN08, FD must have been assumed.

I guess we can just disagree (in a very friendly way of course) and see what the September VB brings.

[indiani]

Guys,
Was demand data ever released for this month?

no..............

[Spectator]

Q,

I also enjoy our "disagreements". Often the best learning comes out of the exchanges. On that note, I will be very disappointed if you don't contribute on the predictions front next year.

Please see my PS in my original post, which I added after you had quoted it.

[qesehmk]

Spec - saw your PS. So yes indeed it is subject to interpretation now. Well we will know in another 31 days ... won't we. Meanwhile I am planning to head to banff!! Can't wait for it.
Q,

I also enjoy our "disagreements". Often the best learning comes out of the exchanges. On that note, I will be very disappointed if you don't contribute on the predictions front next year.

Please see my PS in my original post, which I added after you had quoted it.

[geevikram]

Then we just have to wait until DD comes out to know what is going to happen next month. Is DD released every month?


no..............

[indiani]

Now that we are 100% sure that the Gc's will start coming, the question is how soon to anticipate?

will almost all the pre-adjudicated cases approved in 2 weeks as later the interfiling and processing of new applications can take place.

My attorney mentioned that its more likely that its spread out through the month,

I will be nervously waiting until I see the actual card in hand

[dec2007]

Finally...

Can anyone beat my PD ?:p

[Kanmani]

Finally...

Can anyone beat my PD ?:p

No one can for sure! Was it not Jan 1 2008 a Federal Holiday like every other years' :) Good Luck!

[Spectator]

Q,

Meanwhile I am planning to head to banff!! Can't wait for it.Q,

I am seriously so jealous!!

Have a great time.

[qesehmk]

Happy for everybody but especially for u dec2007.
Finally...

Can anyone beat my PD ?:p

[Spectator]

No one can for sure! Was it not Jan 1 2008 a Federal Holiday like every other years' :) Good Luck!Kanmani,

You are slipping! :)

Jan 1, 2008 would not be Current.

[indiani]

spec,

How many visas can they issue per day?

[Vkkpnm]

Any ideas guys how much it will retrogress after 2-3 months. 2006,2007????

[qesehmk]

Q,
I also enjoy our "disagreements". Often the best learning comes out of the exchanges. On that note, I will be very disappointed if you don't contribute on the predictions front next year.

Spec - I don't want to leave this unanswered. ... here is why ...

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2155-Why-I-(i-e-Q)-am-Going-to-Stop-Forecasting-on-Qesehmk-org-From-Oct-2013-Onwards?p=37161#post37161

Everybody, please respond to that thread if you want to discuss. Lets keep this thread focused on the main topic.

[ramakrpb]

Kanmani,

What is ND?

I understand the below acronyms and abbreviations
PD - Priority Date
RD - Receipt Date
FP - Finger Printing ?
AP - Advance Parole
RFE and EAD are common but no idea about ND !!!!

[ramakrpb]

A quick question about Consular processing -

My priority date is 18-Jul-2008 (EB2I). We had paid the fee to NVC in Jan-2013 and this week we have sent DS230 and civil documents package to NVC. If Jul-08 becomes current (by extreme luck!), would NVC have enough time to process the application/documents and pass on the package to Consulate ?

Thanks for your insight!

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

You are slipping! :)

Jan 1, 2008 would not be Current.

Spec, I know you will catch me on this :) After switching off the computer, I thought about this . At that moment my thought was nobody could claim a 1 day miss.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

What is ND?

I understand the below acronyms and abbreviations
PD - Priority Date
RD - Receipt Date
FP - Finger Printing ?
AP - Advance Parole
RFE and EAD are common but no idea about ND !!!!

After en-cashing the fees, USCIS will send a notice acknowledging the Receipt of petitions. ND is Notice Date.

[vizcard]

Great news finally with the August bulletin. I went back and checked the previous visa bulletins from 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 (2012 was an exceptional year and not applicable) and in each instance, I saw on an average a 3 month jump in the September bulletin. This was especially true when the jump in August was big (like in 2008). Simply going by the past indicator, I think there will be a similar jump this year too. What do you think, Spec, Q, Kanmani and other experts?

I would be really happy if there is more spillover available, but I think CO has "conservatively" applied a good chunk of spillover in August. The "finetuning" will occur in September and I think the best case scenario is April 1, 2008, right in line of what was predicted here. Great job again Gurus.

For late 2008'ers like me and people in 2009, we need to watch how much demand will be depleted due to this PD advance. I really hope 2007 is "finished" in the sense 2006 is "finished" for EB2-I (the only demand coming from these years is porters) now and that a good portion of 2008 is also out of the way. That will help us predict the high watermark for the next FY.

This was also a disappointing year for spillover. Without the FB spillover, no advance was possible. I am disappointed that we are not even getting 13.5K (unless the PD advances too much in September), which shows that EB1 and EB2-WW combined could be slightly above their allocation. We need to keep an eye on the inventory report to guesstimate how the demand will shape next year. Historically, EB2-I has gone through lean patches (2008 was one), but the spillover was bountiful in other years (2011). One scary thought is that the bad spillover was probably due to recession and now that we are almost out of it, we might not see anything like this again! Look at this year itself. Demand from EB1, EB2-WW and EB5 is almost enough to deplete their numbers. If the DOS is already doing their best to manage this demand and if the inventory shows a high number, I think we are in trouble for next year and we have to look for that fairy tale bill known as CIR.

My outlook on future is unfortunately dire at this point. I met plenty of people who have filed in 2011 and 2012 in the desi gatherings here and I have shared some of my knowledge thanks to you guys. Frankly, I don't know what to tell them. It has been 2 years since the PD advanced to April 2007 and in 2 years, the PD advancement has no kept up with real time - assuming all 2008 GCs account for 30% of total demand of that year, the "effective" PD advance at the end of this FY barring any further advancement is only 11 months...EB2-I hasn't gotten a good year for 2 years in a row and after 2009, the demand only seems to shoot up. I know porting will end/subside one day but that day is too far. In August, I expect at least a couple of thousand of porting applications from 2005-2007 crowd and retrogression will surely take place by November.

Good luck to everyone and congratulations on those who are current.


first, past performance in the case of GC is not an indicator of future performance if you look only at EB. As you know there are many variables that determine spillover including the mother of all - CO's brain.

second, EB2WW usage this year is also an anomaly due to the backlog from last year. The actual usage while slightly up is not yielding SO because its consuming its quota (and perhaps more) to fulfill 6 months of backlog from FY12.

thirdly, FB to EB spillover is always a variable. In most years, we have got something (spec has the data somewhere)..this year was particularly high but even 2000 FB spillover translates to 1 month movement.

fourth, ive said this before too - CIR will not help folks with PDs 2008 to early 2009 purely because of date of enactment (if it ever happens) and movement of COD until then. I personally believe, the COD will move in to early 2009 by the end of FY14 but that's just a guess at this time.

[redsox2009]

My two cents......

I think we got the EB2 numbers from FA not FD, next months we can see FD. My Theory..............

Looks like PERM processing has slowed down . Currently the perm processing has hit major road block and sitting @ Jan 13 since last two months. So for the last two months we have to assume that EB2 ROW hasn't applied much of the AOS applications. Gurus estimated around 2000/2500 applications for EB2 ROW's per month, so for two moths EB2 unused/unfilled will be around 4000/5000 and 3, 188 availability from Family based, combined together we are seeing around 7188/8188. Based on demand data which we got last month, 8050 is number of EB2I applications preadjusted.

I hope my theory is correct and we will see more EB2I Movement.

[infoseek]

Aug VB: EB2
Ind Jan08/ China Aug08 (no movement)

"These changes for the Family F2A, and India Employment Second preference categories reflect actions which have been taken based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should expect that some type of “corrective” action will be required at some point during FY-2014 in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. Such action would involve the establishment and retrogression of such cut-off dates, and could occur at any time. "

[TeddyKoochu]

Good news finally EB2-I moved to 01-JAN-2008.

[nishant2200]

Congratulations to current folks. I am thinking we might further advance to mid 2008 in August. I would watch out for hints by CO to lawyers associations etc.

Be ready to respond to any RFE or file 485 asap. This window will come otherwise after a year unless CIR.

[Spectator]

sportsfan,

In many ways it is difficult to disagree with much you have said.

Going forward, EB2-I needs about 20k visas a year to move forward one year (slightly less through 2009 and more afterwards) just to keep net retrogression constant.

There are some signs of potential tailwinds for FY2014 (some are perhaps a little speculative).

a) Since we are back to a normal visa usage, EB2-WW might give some Fall Across, even if it might not be much.

b) The extending PERM certification times may create a bit of a hole for EB2-WW numbers in FY2014 if DOL don't instigate a backlog reduction process.

c) CO has made F2A current from August. Given that is so late in the year, FB may fall short of the 226k visas available to them again, leading to extra EB numbers in FY2014.

The problem is that even those are unlikely to bring the number of visas available to EB2-I to a level that would allow a year's progression of the COD. As a result, EB2-I retrogression in real terms is likely to get worse. I judge the real retrogression based on the latest date the COD reaches in a FY when it is not in "build an Inventory" mode. e.g. if the COD reached 01APR08 this year, then real retrogression would be September 1, 2013 minus April 1, 2008 or about 5.4 years.

[desitiger]

As I have now gotten over the shock of date movement and COD missing my PD by 2.5 months, I have couple of questions about the date movement:

Is the date movement done in the current VB accommodates for the following scenarios:

1. An x% of people who have PD before 2008-1-1 and have i-485 filed might still not get GC issued due to some reason or the other. This should give out some visas to be reallocated. Has CO already added a buffer to accommodate for these extra visas in the cut-off date or could we see little movement in the upcoming months?
2. Does the current date movement accounts for all the spillover or is there some spillover that CO is holding on to apply in Sep VB?

Thanks,

[sandyn16]

Does anyone have access to good document which can help me understand if I need to wait till August 1 for interfiling my wifes application to my 485 or can do it now? Lawyer recommends waiting till August 1. Her EB2 date is current with August bulletin whereas my EB3 is not.

[sandyn16]

She is dependant on my EB3 application.. sorry i forgot to mention that part.

[Kanmani]

She is dependant on my EB3 application.. sorry i forgot to mention that part.

Does she have a second I-485 pending under EB2 ?

[sandyn16]

So she doesnt, she has 140 approved. Per lawyers from both sides, she does not need to file new 485, they just need to interfile her application with my 485 so then she becomes primary and I become derivative.

[Pedro Gonzales]

My two cents......

I think we got the EB2 numbers from FA not FD, next months we can see FD. My Theory..............

Looks like PERM processing has slowed down . Currently the perm processing has hit major road block and sitting @ Jan 13 since last two months. So for the last two months we have to assume that EB2 ROW hasn't applied much of the AOS applications. Gurus estimated around 2000/2500 applications for EB2 ROW's per month, so for two moths EB2 unused/unfilled will be around 4000/5000 and 3, 188 availability from Family based, combined together we are seeing around 7188/8188. Based on demand data which we got last month, 8050 is number of EB2I applications preadjusted.

I hope my theory is correct and we will see more EB2I Movement.

I think you may be onto something here, although my conclusion isn't really very optimistic. CO's historical reluctance to consider demand that isn't yet visible in the demand data (here, EB3I to EB2I porting demand, and EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting demand still being processed) would mean that he would move the dates farther than an organically sustainable date. So, I surmise that he hasn't actually taken FD into consideration, but that doesn't mean much because he hasn't taken porting into consideration either. To the extent EB3I to EB2I porting demand kicks in between August 1st and 10th, it will mitigate partially the FD that CO will calculate as being available and it will affect how far he'll move the dates in the September bulletin. If the porting doesn't kick in by Aug 10th, he will move the dates further forward, but porting will still kick in by August end, so the dates will have been moved too far ahead and at some point in September the visa numbers for the year will run out.

So to summarize, either a) CO will see the porting demand kick in and move the dates cautiously in the Sep bulletin, or b) he'll not see the dates kick in and move the dates aggressively in the Sep bulletin, but a large number of people current as of the Sep bulletin may not get their GCs before dates retrogress in Oct.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Is the date movement done in the current VB accommodates for the following scenarios:
1. An x% of people who have PD before 2008-1-1 and have i-485 filed might still not get GC issued due to some reason or the other. This should give out some visas to be reallocated. Has CO already added a buffer to accommodate for these extra visas in the cut-off date or could we see little movement in the upcoming months?
2. Does the current date movement accounts for all the spillover or is there some spillover that CO is holding on to apply in Sep VB?
Thanks,

1. If an application is pre-adjudicated, it will receive a green card automatically. I don't think CO has considered the very small % of applications that will be denied (due to unsatisfactory RFE responses), but I expect that to be a very small %.
2. I think most of us believe that the current movement does not account for all spillover. Some of us believe that Fall Across from EB1, EB4 and EB5 is not included, and others believe it is included but that there will likely be a small additional movement in September as more information becomes available about EB1, EB2ROW, and EB4 usage.

[sandyn16]

Does USCIS have any document mentioning same? Just so I can use it to convince the lawyer

[chittoor]

Kanmani, I am in Eb3 to Eb2 porting with 2005 PD, should i wait for August 1 st to contact USCIS to raise SR for Interfiling or can i do it now.

[infoseek]

CO clearly refrained from making even slight indications as to future movement... essentially he was saying in FY14 the dates will retrogess at some point (public knowledge) and follwed it up with very helpful prediction that ....that point can occur anytime. In the absence of any explicit information we have no choice but to resort to underlying motivations for the ambiguity..

I think the dates will definitely move bit more aggressively in the next VB ... especially as CO as already made his disclaimer. Release the dates till all current Visa # are exhausted (before new demand creeps in from porting). Judging by the numbers presented in the thread... likely till Aug/Sep 2008.

Another point would be "lack of movement" for EB2 China... I doubt that EB3 China porting would cause this ....as it's PD is ahead of EB2C. Maybe they are intending to bring EB2C and EB2I to same PD ... which might likely be around Sep/Oct 2008.... I won't be surprised if it even goes into 2009, what is there to loose... if more demand sets in they can always retrogress. The preference, IMHO, would be to not hold the preadjudicated cases in backlog for too long.

[qesehmk]

Teddy - I hope you wouldn't mind if I shared your good news on the forum right?

Guys,

Teddy recently had his second child - a son. So in case you are looking for him - he is probably up around 3 am changing diapers ;)
Good news finally EB2-I moved to 01-JAN-2008.

[vizcard]

Just a thought. remaining SOFAD for Eb2IC is dependent on EB1+EB2WW+porting usage between now and August 10.

For all intents and purposes, EB1 and EB2WW usage is done for this year (everything in inventory up to Jun 30 will likely get approved). Given the timing and lead time to approve 485s, it is unlikely that any new applications from those categories will get approved in FY13. The only variable now is EB3 to EB2 porting - particularly EB3I to EB2I. Since porting is usually a "flick the switch" type exercise, I would imagine that the real demand would be known within the first week itself.

The point being that I don't see a scenario where CO moves the dates aggressively due to uncertainty. He will have very very good line of sight in to demand and usage. The good thing about this is that there will be a good semblance of FIFO and all demand upto 2007 should be cleared (except for some stragglers).

thoughts?

[bieber]

Congrats Teddy

hope you will find time to relax a bit :)

[geevikram]

Hey Teddy,
Congratulations. Was wondering if you had abandoned us after your GC.

Nice to see you here again.

-Vik

[MATT2012]

Just a thought. remaining SOFAD for Eb2IC is dependent on EB1+EB2WW+porting usage between now and August 10.

For all intents and purposes, EB1 and EB2WW usage is done for this year (everything in inventory up to Jun 30 will likely get approved). Given the timing and lead time to approve 485s, it is unlikely that any new applications from those categories will get approved in FY13. The only variable now is EB3 to EB2 porting - particularly EB3I to EB2I. Since porting is usually a "flick the switch" type exercise, I would imagine that the real demand would be known within the first week itself.

The point being that I don't see a scenario where CO moves the dates aggressively due to uncertainty. He will have very very good line of sight in to demand and usage. The good thing about this is that there will be a good semblance of FIFO and all demand upto 2007 should be cleared (except for some stragglers).

thoughts?

My sense is that he will move it to the furthest date he feels he can surely cover. no more no less. Whether thats July 2007, Dec 2007 or Feb 2008..I don't know. The Sept move will be whatever is left over.

I remembered one of your earlier posts as soon as August VB came out, I think this holds really well where we are today(so copied above). I agree completely that next move will not be aggressive and will be just few more months.

As a side note: Congrats to all who got current in August VB and All the Best. Congrats Teddy, each baby adds a new perspective to life. God Bless:))

[chittoor]

Converting an existing Primary petition to a Dependent status doesn't require the COD to be current. You could have done it already.

This is totally different from EB3 to EB2 conversion .

Mine is Eb3 to Eb2 porting case with PD on 03/25/2005. Should i wait till August 1st to raise SR for interfiling or can i raise it now that VB is released. Thanks.

[vizcard]

If these patterns hold for a few more months, then we might easily reach 2009. That could be a possible headline for the next year's thread.

I believe the final date will be April 2008, which won't really be bad after the stall for the last 16 months.


With your assumption of April 2008 (assuming April 1, 2008), we would need approx. 12-14K SOFAD (which includes normal allocation) to get to 2009. I believe that it won't be hard to get to this number.

[Kanmani]

Does USCIS have any document mentioning same? Just so I can use it to convince the lawyer

I was digging into USCIS documents to find one as required by you. Here I am going to call back my earlier posts as I was wrong.

Converting an existing Primary petition to a Dependent status does require the COD must be current.

I apologize for the confusion.

[Kanmani]

Mine is Eb3 to Eb2 porting case with PD on 03/25/2005. Should i wait till August 1st to raise SR for interfiling or can i raise it now that VB is released. Thanks.

Chitoor,

Attorneys' in general are sending the written request well in advance with an exception of few. USCIS will not act upon the case until the PD is current. So go with your attorney's decision.

[Kanmani]

Teddy, Congratulations!

[Spectator]

My two cents......

I think we got the EB2 numbers from FA not FD, next months we can see FD. My Theory..............

Looks like PERM processing has slowed down . Currently the perm processing has hit major road block and sitting @ Jan 13 since last two months. So for the last two months we have to assume that EB2 ROW hasn't applied much of the AOS applications. Gurus estimated around 2000/2500 applications for EB2 ROW's per month, so for two moths EB2 unused/unfilled will be around 4000/5000 and 3, 188 availability from Family based, combined together we are seeing around 7188/8188. Based on demand data which we got last month, 8050 is number of EB2I applications preadjusted.

I hope my theory is correct and we will see more EB2I Movement.redsox,

I totally agree with you that very few EB2-WW cases with a 2013 PD will be approved this FY. Unfortunately, I believe the slowdown in PERM has come too late to have much effect on this year's figures.

I do not have sufficient information to talk about EB2-M or EB2-P.

EB2-ROW currently have about 200 active pending I-485 primary Trackitt cases.

Of those about 135 have a confirmed I-140 approval and are only waiting for the I-485 to be adjudicated. The number is probably nearer 150. By the end of the year, all will have been waiting at least 3 months since the I-140 approval.

Only somewhere between a third and half of those cases need to be approved for EB2-ROW to hit their revised allocation of 32,535 (which includes the additional 3,707 due to FB).

I can't share your optimism.

[Spectator]

Teddy - I hope you wouldn't mind if I shared your good news on the forum right?

Guys,

Teddy recently had his second child - a son. So in case you are looking for him - he is probably up around 3 am changing diapers ;)Teddy,

Many congratulations!

What a glutton for punishment.

[wolverine82]

Congrats Teddy!!!


Teddy - I hope you wouldn't mind if I shared your good news on the forum right?

Guys,

Teddy recently had his second child - a son. So in case you are looking for him - he is probably up around 3 am changing diapers ;)

[Spectator]

With your assumption of April 2008 (assuming April 1, 2008), we would need approx. 12-14K SOFAD (which includes normal allocation) to get to 2009. I believe that it won't be hard to get to this number.vizcard,

That is an extra 12-14k SOFAD plus next year's porting numbers (plus any cases "left behind" this year (although as a rolling number they can maybe be discounted)).

At perhaps 4k porting, the number suddenly becomes 16-18k. Without some help from extra FB numbers, that might be a stretch IMO.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q, bieber, geevikram, MATT2012 , sportsfan33 , Kanmani , Spectator and all friends thanks a lot for your warm wishes. I cannot imagine life not being on the immigration forums! yes things have been busy with a lot of things including the new one. Feels good really that finally all 2007 folks will be greened this Aug.

[GhostWriter]

Very nicely laid out sportsfan33.

I agree, the net forward movement has certainly been disappointing in EB2-I (in terms of GC issuance, so excluding the forward moves to generate demand and the backward moves to suppress porting)

FY 2012 - 4-months (15-Apr-2007 in Sep-2011 to 15-Aug-2007 in May-2012, after that EB2-I became unavailable. May be we can add 2-3 months to account for GCs issued to 2008 PDs. )

FY 2013 - 4.5 months so far (15-Aug-2007 in May-2012 to 01-Jan-08 in Aug-2013). Probably another 3 months in Sep bulletin.


So overall 7-8 months a year in last two years.



Great news finally with the August bulletin. I went back and checked the previous visa bulletins from 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 (2012 was an exceptional year and not applicable) and in each instance, I saw on an average a 3 month jump in the September bulletin. This was especially true when the jump in August was big (like in 2008). Simply going by the past indicator, I think there will be a similar jump this year too.

[chittoor]

Chitoor,

Attorneys' in general are sending the written request well in advance with an exception of few. USCIS will not act upon the case until the PD is current. So go with your attorney's decision.

Thank You.

[mvkrishna]

Hi, I have a non-typical scenario. My priority date is Jan-2007 EB2I, for which I already have a filed 485. I married after submitting my 485. My wife is from India and has a H1B 5th year, but never filed for labor, so she doesn't have an Alien number.

I am confused as to the what-if scenario on Aug. Suppose, my application gets picked up right away and I get my GC immediately, will my wife still be able to file as an EB dependent? I checked with my attorney and he says that's fine as long as I send in my wife's application before end of August. Or should I wait for my GC approval and file as Family based, since F2A is current? Please advise

[Spectator]

Hi, I have a non-typical scenario. My priority date is Jan-2007 EB2I, for which I already have a filed 485. I married after submitting my 485. My wife is from India and has a H1B 5th year, but never filed for labor, so she doesn't have an Alien number.

I am confused as to the what-if scenario on Aug. Suppose, my application gets picked up right away and I get my GC immediately, will my wife still be able to file as an EB dependent? I checked with my attorney and he says that's fine as long as I send in my wife's application before end of August. Or should I wait for my GC approval and file as Family based, since F2A is current? Please advisemvkrishna,

The requirement to file as your derivative under EB is that you were:

a) Married BEFORE your I-485 was approved.

b) She is not ineligible to file I-485 e.g more than 180 days Out of Status/Unauthorized Employment since her last admission to the USA.

Some Immigration Attorneys are suggesting that submitting the I-485 and also filing an I-130 petition under F2A (after the primary is approved) is a viable strategy to give 2 bites at the apple. The I-485 can be linked to an approved I-130 if that becomes Current more quickly.

[mvkrishna]

mvkrishna,

The requirement to file as your derivative under EB is that you were:

a) Married BEFORE your I-485 was approved.

b) She is not ineligible to file I-485 e.g more than 180 days Out of Status/Unauthorized Employment since her last admission to the USA.

Some Immigration Attorneys are suggesting that submitting the I-485 and also filing an I-130 petition under F2A (after the primary is approved) is a viable strategy to give 2 bites at the apple. The I-485 can be linked to an approved I-130 if that becomes Current more quickly.

Thanks Spectator. So my understanding is that my wife can file for 485 anytime in August, and if my GC is already approved, I can file an I-130 and have her added in Family based quota. Is this correct?

[Guest123]

What is the total spillover expected from all categories (EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4, EB5) that can be applied to EB2I ? Any clarifications ? What is the expected range of porting numbers prior to 01/01/2008 ?

[GCKnowHow]

Hi, I have a non-typical scenario. My priority date is Jan-2007 EB2I, for which I already have a filed 485. I married after submitting my 485. My wife is from India and has a H1B 5th year, but never filed for labor, so she doesn't have an Alien number.

I am confused as to the what-if scenario on Aug. Suppose, my application gets picked up right away and I get my GC immediately, will my wife still be able to file as an EB dependent? I checked with my attorney and he says that's fine as long as I send in my wife's application before end of August. Or should I wait for my GC approval and file as Family based, since F2A is current? Please advise

My friend was in same situation in 2011 and all he did was got all the documents ready for his wife and sent a overnight courier so that USCIS will recieve exactly on the day when the VB is effective (your case Aug 1st). Then called them in a week and L3 or L2 officer confirmed the receipt of spouse docs and in couple of weeks both were greened.

[mvkrishna]

My friend was in same situation in 2011 and all he did was got all the documents ready for his wife and sent a overnight courier so that USCIS will recieve exactly on the day when the VB is effective (your case Aug 1st). Then called them in a week and L3 or L2 officer confirmed the receipt of spouse docs and in couple of weeks both were greened.

Thank you, it's reassuring to hear a successful case.

[suninphx]

Spec,
My rationale is that to be eligible to file EB2 by June 2014, you have to have atleast a June 2009 EB3 PD (5 yrs).


Not necessarily- some people may have 2-3 yr experience while applying in EB-3.

[go4green]

Hi, Gurus.

My PD is Jan 2nd 2008. Just missed by one day..(BAD LUCK)
Just wondering if there will be another furthur movement in Sep bulletin.
Any predictions are welcome..Eagerly waiting for some replies from any of our Experts..
Please give me some thoughts..

Thanks


Finally...

Can anyone beat my PD ?:p

[Spectator]

Spec,
I don't think porting will be 4K next year. My rationale is that to be eligible to file EB2 by June 2014, you have to have atleast a June 2009 EB3 PD (5 yrs). I imagine most of the pre-July 2007 porting will be done (ofcourse this is an presumption on my part). So really it will be -

1)Aug 2007 - Feb 2008 (or whereever we end up this year) - new applications that would get in this fiscal year but will be in the FY14 bucket (not sure if I should call it "demand").
2)March 2008 - June 2009 PDs - new applications at whatever point they get to apply next summer. Given lead times to process these, only a few would get in.

What do you think ?

Also, would #1 show up in EB2 demand data when they are pre-adjudicated? I would think so but I'm not sure.Vizcard,

Firstly, I want to say it is good that the conversations and debates have started up again.


My rationale is that to be eligible to file EB2 by June 2014, you have to have atleast a June 2009 EB3 PD (5 yrs). I imagine most of the pre-July 2007 porting will be done (ofcourse this is an presumption on my part).I wouldn't agree with that assumption.

Porting is like a slowly creeping conveyor and not all people have either started the process yet or have completed it, whatever their PD.

People from all years ahead of the EB3-I COD will either be thinking about it, just started or be at some point in the very long process to get an EB2 I-140 approved. There is always a flow of new cases from old PDs.

Porting this year was from 2003 onwards - next year it will be from a point slightly further on, but the end date will also have moved forward as the COD advances. All EB3 cases up to July 2007 will still have an I-485 already on file. That still represents a sizable number who might port.

I agree that in addition to the above, there are those cases left behind from this year and any new ones with relatively late PD that might become Current for the first time when the COD advances.

Only those that have to file an I-485 for the first time late in the FY would realistically stand no chance of an approval in FY2014 - they would form the beginning demand for the next FY.

[Kanmani]

Viz,

Significant number of Pre 2008 EB3 cases were filed so because of company policy, irrespective of qualification.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spectator. So my understanding is that my wife can file for 485 anytime in August, and if my GC is already approved, I can file an I-130 and have her added in Family based quota. Is this correct?That's correct.

You'd have to decide whether paying the fees associated with an I-30 under F2A is worth it to have 2 chances. You don't have to file the I-130 if you choose not to do so.

[seattlet]

Spec, Why do you consider the slowdown too late ? Considering that Eb2 ROW would be atleast filing 2.5 K cases per month and if folks had their perm approved in 2 months instead of 6 months, All these folks with upto Apr End perm approvals would have fiiled 485 and I140 premium processing. the chance of them getting a GC is around 80 % by end of July ( 3 months for 485)
While not everyone files for premium 140, and not everyone gets their 485 approved in 3 months, even if 50% of folks could have done it, but now couldnt, we still get around 3.5 to 4K visas that will spill over to EB2 I. 4 K visas can help EB2 I to move by another 3 to 4 months (or maybe it was already taken into consideration ? )





redsox,

I totally agree with you that very few EB2-WW cases with a 2013 PD will be approved this FY. Unfortunately, I believe the slowdown in PERM has come too late to have much effect on this year's figures.

I do not have sufficient information to talk about EB2-M or EB2-P.

EB2-ROW currently have about 200 active pending I-485 primary Trackitt cases.

Of those about 135 have a confirmed I-140 approval and are only waiting for the I-485 to be adjudicated. The number is probably nearer 150. By the end of the year, all will have been waiting at least 3 months since the I-140 approval.

Only somewhere between a third and half of those cases need to be approved for EB2-ROW to hit their revised allocation of 32,535 (which includes the additional 3,707 due to FB).

I can't share your optimism.

[cool_dude]

My priority date is June 2011...How long you think I need to wait....I had a perm in 2009.Lawyer made mistakes,which lead to denial...

[Spectator]

Spec, Why do you consider the slowdown too late ? Considering that Eb2 ROW would be atleast filing 2.5 K cases per month and if folks had their perm approved in 2 months instead of 6 months, All these folks with upto Apr End perm approvals would have fiiled 485 and I140 premium processing. the chance of them getting a GC is around 80 % by end of July ( 3 months for 485)
While not everyone files for premium 140, and not everyone gets their 485 approved in 3 months, even if 50% of folks could have done it, but now couldnt, we still get around 3.5 to 4K visas that will spill over to EB2 I. 4 K visas can help EB2 I to move by another 3 to 4 months (or maybe it was already taken into consideration ? )Let me put it another way.

According to the new LCR, PERM with a PD at the end of January 2013 are currently being Certified. Even with PP of a subsequent I-140 and 3 months I-485 processing, no new I-485 is likely to be approved this FY. In that sense there is a saving because the PD being processed might have been later if there had been no slowdown.

EB2-ROW already have enough pending I-485 with an approved I-140 with a PD in 2012 and earlier to reach their revised allocation and with enough time left for the I-485 to be approved.

The PERM processing slowdown may well have stopped EB2-ROW exceeding their allocation by several thousand, but it is unlikely to stop EB2-ROW reaching it.

I've taken that fact into consideration in any calculations I have made.

Looking ahead, the down side is that potentially several months worth of demand have now been pushed into FY2014. If part of the reason for DOL's lack of productivity in FY2013 has been due to the effects of sequestration, we can expect the processing times to become better after September. If that happens, then FY2014 will have more than 12 months worth of cases.

[Vkkpnm]

Hi Guys,

I know this is not a right forum to ask this question but I need my answer urgently and I know only this group who is very responsive. My PD become current :). I am working on h1b, and I have to file my i485. my visa is expired. I have to travel India and was wondering can I travel on AP but continue working on H1B.

What is best option: to apply EAD and start working on it or continue woking on h1b. If my wife had to work, do I have to be working on EAD only?

Appreciate your quick response on this as I have to let my attorney know about it.

Also if anyone have any idea of lawyer fees that will be great. My lawyer is charging 4600 as lawyer fee only for i485/ead/ap for myself, spouse and child. Is this reasonable?

[vizcard]

Hi Guys,

I know this is not a right forum to ask this question but I need my answer urgently and I know only this group who is very responsive. My PD become current :). I am working on h1b, and I have to file my i485. my visa is expired. I have to travel India and was wondering can I travel on AP but continue working on H1B.

What is best option: to apply EAD and start working on it or continue woking on h1b. If my wife had to work, do I have to be working on EAD only?

Appreciate your quick response on this as I have to let my attorney know about it.

Also if anyone have any idea of lawyer fees that will be great. My lawyer is charging 4600 as lawyer fee only for i485/ead/ap for myself, spouse and child. Is this reasonable?

Yes you can travel on AP and work on H1B... I'm doing that right now.
You can choose to work on either EAD or H1B. I am still working on H1B even through I have an EAD (same company).
Your wife can work on EAD even if you are on H1B as long as your 485 is pending and she is a dependent on it. Again thats the situation I am in.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Viz. appreciated.

[mesan123]

Congrats Teddy ..

[Spectator]

Not long ago, there was a conversation about the order cases are adjudicated in.

Someone on Trackitt posted a link to a very old (2001) SOP for I-485 processing.

This section might be interesting to some people, although there is no promise that the same workflow is followed today.


Section 6: Workload Distribution

Introduction

After the case is consolidated, connected and purged by File Maintenance, it is routed to Workload Distribution (WD). WD is in charge of staging, routing and distributing files. There are five different types of staging areas that Workload Distribution handles:

• Work ready for adjudication;
• Work awaiting a response from a request for evidence;
• Work awaiting a response from an Intent to Deny;
• Work awaiting submission of an I-89 card;
• Work awaiting a visa number.

WD stages files that had a visa number available at the time of filing; however, between the date of receipt and the date of adjudication, the visa became unavailable. These I-485 filings are otherwise ready for approval.

They are staged chronologically by priority date, preference category and country of chargeability.

More detail:


Procedure for Staging for the Visa Hold Shelf

The Visa Hold Shelf holds cases whereby a visa number was available at the time of filing, however, between the date of receipt and the date of adjudication, the visa became unavailable. These I-485 filings are otherwise ready for approval. These cases are staged chronologically by priority date, preference category and country of chargeability until a visa becomes available. They are reviewed monthly to determine visa availability.

Action: Contractor

1 Stage files for which a visa is not yet available. Stage these files until a visa becomes available.
2 Review files monthly to determine the next appropriate action.

IF a visa is…

Available - The file is pulled and returned to the appropriate adjudicator.

Not available - The file remains on the shelf.

Remember, this is a very old document.

[coolvibe]

Gurus,

You have stopped predicting for a while. I have not seen update on first page for several months. Can Gurus please provide predictions for next bulletin.

[qesehmk]

I think I did it twice in last couple of weeks. Pl check. I am not sure about others though.
Gurus,

You have stopped predicting for a while. I have not seen update on first page for several months. Can Gurus please provide predictions for next bulletin.

[SenorMeow]

As a lurker and beneficiary to quality content on this site from Q, Spectator and many others over the past few months, I decided to register to express my thanks for patiently helping GC applicants try to make sense of the maze that is the US immigration system. Thank you! :)

[Spectator]

As a lurker and beneficiary to quality content on this site from Q, Spectator and many others over the past few months, I decided to register to express my thanks for patiently helping GC applicants try to make sense of the maze that is the US immigration system. Thank you! :)Thanks for making the effort to do so. I'm glad you have found the content useful.

[qesehmk]

Welcome! I can say this without any hesitation that - political angles aside - yours is the best avatar I have seen on this forum or perhaps anywhere else!!!
As a lurker and beneficiary to quality content on this site from Q, Spectator and many others over the past few months, I decided to register to express my thanks for patiently helping GC applicants try to make sense of the maze that is the US immigration system. Thank you! :)

[Vkkpnm]

Can we expect last prediction for this year i.e. what would be the final PD after 3-4 months? Will PD retrogress like last year?

Thanks

[go4green]

Hi, Q, Spectator and other Gurus.

I would like to thank you for all the efforts you guys put to run this thread.

As per the predictions from the 1st page the total number of visas avaible to EB2I are 20k.
[9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +5K (EB1) +6K (Quota) - 3K (ROW overage) = 20K visas]

But before Jan 2008 there are 8k pending in the I-485 inventory and lets say 4-5 Porting and 6K from original quota comes to (8+5+6). So it looks like only about 1K are remaining. There are 1147 cases pending inthe I-485 inventory for Jan 2008.
So will there be any furthur movement in Sep bulletin? Or is it too optimistic to expect any movement for this FY.
Also i t may depend on the porting numbers for sure.

My humble request to Q/Spec/Teddy/any Grurus... is if they can post their valuable response with the actual numbers, if available, used so far till Aug 2013, it would very helpful for people who have PD Jan/Feb 2008. (my PD is jan2nd)
Awaiting for a reply.

Thank you.

[qesehmk]

You can't add 6K to the 8+5. 6K is what you sohuld expect as the remaining movement which should be about 3-4 months.

So with upside an downside calculation anywhere between 2-6 months movement is possible.


Hi, Q, Spectator and other Gurus.

I would like to thank you for all the efforts you guys put to run this thread.

As per the predictions from the 1st page the total number of visas avaible to EB2I are 20k.
[9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +5K (EB1) +6K (Quota) - 3K (ROW overage) = 20K visas]

But before Jan 2008 there are 8k pending in the I-485 inventory and lets say 4-5 Porting and 6K from original quota comes to (8+5+6). So it looks like only about 1K are remaining. There are 1147 cases pending inthe I-485 inventory for Jan 2008.
So will there be any furthur movement in Sep bulletin? Or is it too optimistic to expect any movement for this FY.
Also i t may depend on the porting numbers for sure.

My humble request to Q/Spec/Teddy/any Grurus... is if they can post their valuable response with the actual numbers, if available, used so far till Aug 2013, it would very helpful for people who have PD Jan/Feb 2008. (my PD is jan2nd)
Awaiting for a reply.

Thank you.

[veni001]

Good news finally EB2-I moved to 01-JAN-2008.

Congratulations to all folks who will be current in August, it has been a painful wait for 10 months.

[isthereawayout]

Gurus, please help. Mine is a EB3 to EB2 India porting case with a PD of 01/2005. When I emailed NSC to enquire if my case is preadjudicated or not, I got the following reply

================
USCIS records indicate your applications are pending the availability of an employment based Visa. You are 2nd preference from India with a priority date of January 06, 2005. Currently there are Visas available for applicants with a priority date earlier than that of September 01, 2004 at this time. Your applications will be processed when a Visa based on your classification and preference becomes available.
================

1. Can I assume my case is preadjudicated?
2. Do I need to send an interfiling letter?

Thanks

[Spectator]

Hi, Q, Spectator and other Gurus.

I would like to thank you for all the efforts you guys put to run this thread.

As per the predictions from the 1st page the total number of visas avaible to EB2I are 20k.
[9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +5K (EB1) +6K (Quota) - 3K (ROW overage) = 20K visas]

But before Jan 2008 there are 8k pending in the I-485 inventory and lets say 4-5 Porting and 6K from original quota comes to (8+5+6). So it looks like only about 1K are remaining. There are 1147 cases pending inthe I-485 inventory for Jan 2008.
So will there be any furthur movement in Sep bulletin? Or is it too optimistic to expect any movement for this FY.
Also i t may depend on the porting numbers for sure.

My humble request to Q/Spec/Teddy/any Grurus... is if they can post their valuable response with the actual numbers, if available, used so far till Aug 2013, it would very helpful for people who have PD Jan/Feb 2008. (my PD is jan2nd)
Awaiting for a reply.

Thank you.go4green,

If we consider that EB2-I has been using at least the minimum numbers available to date this year, then by the end of August, EB2-I would have already used about 3k of the initial 3.2k available.

Using your high figure of 5k for porting cases to come into the Demand, then EB2-I could potentially have used a total of 3 (used already) + 8 (known demand to Jan 2008) + 5 (porting to come into demand) = 16k by the end of August.

In reality, not all cases will actually have been approved in August. If 2k remain unapproved (as an example), then actual approvals at the end of August would be 16 - 2 = 14k.

The 20k you mention appears to be for EB2-IC, so you would have to deduct up to 4k for use by EB2-C to arrive at a figure available for EB2-I alone. That would leave the total visas for EB2-I at 16-17k, leaving 2-3k possible in September based on your figures and my example figure of 2k unapproved.

[go4green]

Hi, Q and Spec
Thank you very much for your responses.

Q's Predictions mentioned that there will be 6k from the Quota ( out of 20k total EB2I spill over). But it looks like its 3.2K is the actuall quota. will this reduce the initial 20k to 17k?

Also will there be more yield from EB1 than the 5k initially expected for EB1 ? as per the invenrory which says 11,500k for EB1 WW
Sorry if i am doing some wrong math here and I am not trying to prove anyone wrong. We know its all predictions.

Q or Spectator, Please throw some light on those numbers.

I once again thank for your contributions for this forum which is an immense psychological relief for people in the same boat.

Thank you.



go4green,

If we consider that EB2-I has been using at least the minimum numbers available to date this year, then by the end of August, EB2-I would have already used about 3k of the initial 3.2k available.

Using your high figure of 5k for porting cases to come into the Demand, then EB2-I could potentially have used a total of 3 (used already) + 8 (known demand to Jan 2008) + 5 (porting to come into demand) = 16k by the end of August.

In reality, not all cases will actually have been approved in August. If 2k remain unapproved (as an example), then actual approvals at the end of August would be 16 - 2 = 14k.

The 20k you mention appears to be for EB2-IC, so you would have to deduct up to 4k for use by EB2-C to arrive at a figure available for EB2-I alone. That would leave the total visas for EB2-I at 16-17k, leaving 2-3k possible in September based on your figures and my example figure of 2k unapproved.

[qesehmk]

my friend - you are locked and loaded. UCSIS is telling that yours is a done deal and just waiting for visa. So 4-5 weeks from now you will be green. Send us some haldiram then!!!
1 - Yes preadjudicated.
2 - No need. They already did it for you.


Gurus, please help. Mine is a EB3 to EB2 India porting case with a PD of 01/2005. When I emailed NSC to enquire if my case is preadjudicated or not, I got the following reply

================
USCIS records indicate your applications are pending the availability of an employment based Visa. You are 2nd preference from India with a priority date of January 06, 2005. Currently there are Visas available for applicants with a priority date earlier than that of September 01, 2004 at this time. Your applications will be processed when a Visa based on your classification and preference becomes available.
================

1. Can I assume my case is preadjudicated?
2. Do I need to send an interfiling letter?

Thanks

[qesehmk]

G4G - 6K is between India and China. 20K is SOFAD that goes towards EB2IC backlog. Hope it explains. As per any micro predictions - I am sorry but it's difficult for me since I haven't tracked to that level of detail. But perhaps Spec or others can answer.


Hi, Q and Spec
Thank you very much for your responses.

Q's Predictions mentioned that there will be 6k from the Quota ( out of 20k total EB2I spill over). But it looks like its 3.2K is the actuall quota. will this reduce the initial 20k to 17k?

Also will there be more yield from EB1 than the 5k initially expected for EB1 ? as per the invenrory which says 11,500k for EB1 WW
Sorry if i am doing some wrong math here and I am not trying to prove anyone wrong. We know its all predictions.

Q or Spectator, Please throw some light on those numbers.

I once again thank for your contributions for this forum which is an immense psychological relief for people in the same boat.

Thank you.

[eb2visa]

G4G - 6K is between India and China. 20K is SOFAD that goes towards EB2IC backlog. Hope it explains. As per any micro predictions - I am sorry but it's difficult for me since I haven't tracked to that level of detail. But perhaps Spec or others can answer.

How many EB2-I will be there from Jan to Aug 2008?

[vizcard]

How many EB2-I will be there from Jan to Aug 2008?

Looking at the demand data for July, it would be approx 8 x 1500 = 12000 not including porting.

[vizcard]

There are a total of 15-16K pending in 2008. Since the density is slightly lower in the earlier half (as many of them were approved), I would say about 8-10K.

I asked the density question way back and turns out that its still fairly flat across the months. Q or Spec or someone had actually posted some data supporting that. So you could say 9-12K as the range - not including porting

[axialtilt]

Hi indiani, please post the more info from the presentation when you have it ready. The first prediction of Jan 1, 2008 did come true. I wonder what other info was given in the conference about possible further movement.

@indiani, any update on the content of the recording?

[go4green]

Hi, Q.

Can we say EB2I will get ~17k visas because EB2C is at Aug 2008 and EB2I will get all the SOFAD.

Can any one share the information on how much EB1 and EB4 will yield taking into account the recent I-485 inventory. Will EB4 yield anything at all?
Just want to analyse and see if there will be any furthur movement in Sep.

I would be very thankful if Veni or Tedd or others' provide any numbers which are highly apreciated.

Thank you.

[qesehmk]

Yes. That's fair.
Hi, Q.

Can we say EB2I will get ~17k visas because EB2C is at Aug 2008 and EB2I will get all the SOFAD.

[indiani]

@indiani, any update on the content of the recording?

listening to it now, if anything worthwhile i will post the info

[indiani]

here is some I thought worthwhile to post:
EB2-I for this year no other news other than jan 2008 for next bulletin.( in the future EB2I will not receive anywhere close to 20K like in the past )
EB5 this yr 9K ( next yr expected to be 10K and might retrogess)
EB2-I pattern of movement in 2014 similar to this year.
no signficant FB SO in 2014 ( this year considered lucky for india according to presenters :D)
lot of EB3WW upgrade this year ( why FA is low from EB2WW)

I skipped most of it as it boring so will try to listen to entirety soon and will post anything important,
the whole thing is for dummies ( useful for someone who doesn't understand the process )

[indiani]

sorry that I didnt find anything to predict for sept 2013 from the recording but next yr in the absense of cir and also without FB SO and increased EB5, things arent rosy
with CIR ( if final version includes recapture ) everyone will be C.

[qesehmk]

lot of EB3WW upgrade this year ( why FA is low from EB2WW)

Exactly what I feared indiani. Thank you for posting.

[suninphx]

Chinese are expecting India to join them at the end of this FY, their target PD is same as Q's September 2008. They think there is no retrogression for EB2C hereafter.


Kanmani-

What's latest chatter there about the first part of the prediction from Chinese forums(EB2I catching up with EB2C)? Later part of prediction seem almost certain now.

[indiani]

charlie was in mexico, the presenters were really dummies as they hardly ever crunched numbers and they were delivering news from charlie who was on vacation in mexico.

when they clearly mentioned jan 2008, I dont know why only Oh cared to mention and not murthy. ( Oh should get credit for it )
I am afraid of copyright violations so cant post the entire content online

[Spectator]

indiani,

Thank you very much for sharing. It is much appreciated.

[desitiger]

here is some I thought worthwhile to post:
EB2-I for this year no other news other than jan 2008 for next bulletin.( in the future EB2I will not receive anywhere close to 20K like in the past )
EB5 this yr 9K ( next yr expected to be 10K and might retrogess)
EB2-I pattern of movement in 2014 similar to this year.
no signficant FB SO in 2014 ( this year considered lucky for india according to presenters :D)
lot of EB3WW upgrade this year ( why FA is low from EB2WW)

I skipped most of it as it boring so will try to listen to entirety soon and will post anything important,
the whole thing is for dummies ( useful for someone who doesn't understand the process )

Looks no further movement for EB2I in Sep bulletin. God knows when will the dates move forward.

[MATT2012]

Thanks Indiani, it was indeed nice of you to share the essence. The bullet points you summarized, confirms Spec/Q's thought process shared in the forum. I understand there was some mention of how porting cases are double counted( both in EB3 and EB2). Is there any new learning of how porting cases are handled when PD is not current. Also any mention of why EB3I cases are dropping where PD is not current.?

[vedu]

Even though less spill over will be available for India going forward, the good news is India will solely consume all the spill over for next 2-3 years. In the past, India had to share it with China. So, is it fair to say that the net effect will be India getting same amount of spill over as previous years?


Yes. That's fair.

[yank]

Q,

I remember few yr's back you had some source in Visa office..Is it possible to get some info for Sep. bulletin please?

Would appreciate your reply.

Thanks

[indiani]

i think what everyone feared to be most conservative might have been taking place ( only speculation ) :

heavy EB5 demand
heavy EB2WW usage

IMHO I dont think there will be like 6 months movement but rather 2-4 months at the best ( this is only one man's opinion and I dont want people to get nervous about it ) .

jan 2008 in aug bulletin was mentioned for the question: how far EB2I will move for 2013?

[SenorMeow]

here is some I thought worthwhile to post:
EB2-I for this year no other news other than jan 2008 for next bulletin.( in the future EB2I will not receive anywhere close to 20K like in the past )
EB5 this yr 9K ( next yr expected to be 10K and might retrogess)
EB2-I pattern of movement in 2014 similar to this year.
no signficant FB SO in 2014 ( this year considered lucky for india according to presenters :D)
lot of EB3WW upgrade this year ( why FA is low from EB2WW)

I skipped most of it as it boring so will try to listen to entirety soon and will post anything important,
the whole thing is for dummies ( useful for someone who doesn't understand the process )

Thanks for sharing! This memo probably has something to do with the EB-5 retrogression forecast - USCIS Policy Memorandum May 2013 (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/2013/May/EB-5%20Adjudications%20PM%20%28Approved%20as%20final% 205-30-13%29.pdf)

[wolverine82]

From the looks of it I think Q's and Spec's calculations are spot on and also Matt's calculations in other forum where he updated his calculation sheet we might expect movement to be anywhere from Apr 2008- July 2008.

I am hoping it is July so that lot of folks can get GC's and folks like me with Apr 4th date would be able to atleast file I-485 as I missed boat last time..I think I am more of hit/miss scenario from all your discussions.

guru's do you think this is fair assessment well with USCIS anything can happen but atleast with what is available and what Indiani has posted is this a decent assumption..

[indiani]

Thanks Indiani, it was indeed nice of you to share the essence. The bullet points you summarized, confirms Spec/Q's thought process shared in the forum. I understand there was some mention of how porting cases are double counted( both in EB3 and EB2). Is there any new learning of how porting cases are handled when PD is not current. Also any mention of why EB3I cases are dropping where PD is not current.?

you are correct that EB2 and 2 are double counted until the case is approved ( the they will drop out of EB3), (its mentioned in PDF files that comes with audio.)
"IVCRD has no information on applicants with approved I-140
Immigrant Worker petitions (nor for that matter, applicants having approved I-130 Alien
Relative petitions) where AOS is selected, but the AOS was not filed despite a prior filing
eligibility window, or the applicant was never eligible for AOS filing, and the I-485 cannot now
be filed due to priority date backlogs." ( from AILA prsentation )
I hope you can interpret the above and get answer to you question

[wolverine82]

[QUOTE=indiani;37343]everyone with approved i-140 is counted in DD

Indiani..Can you please clarify this as I thought folks who filed I-485 are counted in DD..

[indiani]

“Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot ‘see’ the I-140 cases that are approved and for which
adjustment of status had been requested , though he can ‘see’ cases for which consular processing is requested."
( courtesy AILA presentation )

[Kanmani]

Kanmani-

What's latest chatter there about the first part of the prediction from Chinese forums(EB2I catching up with EB2C)? Later part of prediction seem almost certain now.

Sun,

They are in shock with no movement this month, which was totally unexpected. No news so far predicting Sept.

[vizcard]

Even though less spill over will be available for India going forward, the good news is India will solely consume all the spill over for next 2-3 years. In the past, India had to share it with China. So, is it fair to say that the net effect will be India getting same amount of spill over as previous years?

not necessarily. In past years, eb2I has got 16K+ visas. It sounds like next year will be lean. this year would have been too without the FB bonus. Inspite of that EB2I is getting about 17K visas total. I think the overall pot itself is getting smaller. But EB2I will consume all of the spillover so hopefully, we'll get close to the 16K mark every year.

Next year, we will get FA from EB2WW and FD from EB1. I can't imagine EB4 and EB5 giving anything meaningul (if anything) at all. Will it be enough to get to the 16-18K mark? dont know yet.

[indiani]

[QUOTE=indiani;37343]everyone with approved i-140 is counted in DD

Indiani..Can you please clarify this as I thought folks who filed I-485 are counted in DD..

sorry i posted that in a hurry, please ignore and see my edited post and interpret for yourself, my interpretation is that perhaps its not reflected in DD ( any interfilers or new AOS applicants, only folks who already filed under EB2I 485 are in DD)

[wolverine82]

Thanks appreciate the comments that makes sense!!

[QUOTE=wolverine82;37344]

sorry i posted that in a hurry, please ignore and see my edited post and interpret for yourself, my interpretation is that perhaps its not reflected in DD ( any interfilers or new AOS applicants, only folks who already filed under EB2I 485 are in DD)

[suninphx]

Sun,

They are in shock with no movement this month, which was totally unexpected. No news so far predicting Sept.

Thanks Kanmani !

[qesehmk]

I am sorry. We don't. That was a fellow EB2I guy - a doctor - who got his GC and is no longer in touch.
Q,

I remember few yr's back you had some source in Visa office..Is it possible to get some info for Sep. bulletin please?

Would appreciate your reply.

Thanks

[vedu]

Thanks vizcard!

It makes sense to me.

[pseudonym]

Thanks for sharing the gist of the audio recording indiani. It is very much appreciated.

Based on input from various experts on this forum, it seems like 2-4 months movement (at most) is what should happen in the Sep bulletin, but no official indication from CO yet, so it is tough to make that conclusion for sure.

The only tangible thing that still gives me some hope of movement in the Sep bulletin is the PD date range for which the recent RFEs were issued (till March 2008, where most of the significant data points ended). I am hoping that was based on some solid guidance provided from DOS to USCIS. I would hate to think they would bother so many people with RFEs unless they feel some movement is more or less certain. But of course, we can never be sure. I sure hope it moves a significant amount in Sep, but I can only hope at this point. Because it sounds like prospects are very bleak for FY2014 and onwards (without CIR).

[druvraj]

This is precisely the reason why people in 2008 who miss getting the GC will have to wait at least 2 years for the dates to return back to their PDs. This is a terrible situation for EB2I. What must also stop is the abuse of EB1-C(Category C). Indiani was there any reference to this category. If this abuse is stopped then EB2I will move forward fast. Just my 2 cents.

[indiani]

This is precisely the reason why people in 2008 who miss getting the GC will have to wait at least 2 years for the dates to return back to their PDs. This is a terrible situation for EB2I. What must also stop is the abuse of EB1-C(Category C). Indiani was there any reference to this category. If this abuse is stopped then EB2I will move forward fast. Just my 2 cents.

none about EB 1C

[indiani]

does anyone else find it odd that we still dont have DD for august

[wolverine82]

I heard someone saying that CO missed putting out DD when there were such rapid movements couple of times..

[MATT2012]

does anyone else find it odd that we still dont have DD for august
In FY2011, we missed demand data in July. FY2012- Jan and May and this is the first one FY2013.

[indiani]

well then not seeing DD is a good thing :)

[indiani]

In FY2011, we missed demand data in July. FY2012- Jan and May and this is the first one FY2013.

Matt,

in the rapid movement last year how many visas at the max were approved per day, the reason I am asking is to anticipate when 2007 PD preadjudicated case might have a chance to get e-mail about approval .
If they can approve 1000K per day of pre-adjudicated cases then I can expect most likely within a week, if 500 per day then 2 weeks and if its going to be a random pick up of files anyday in august

[MATT2012]

Matt,

in the rapid movement last year how many visas at the max were approved per day, the reason I am asking is to anticipate when 2007 PD preadjudicated case might have a chance to get e-mail about approval .
If they can approve 1000K per day of pre-adjudicated cases then I can expect most likely within a week, if 500 per day then 2 weeks and if its going to be a random pick up of files anyday in august

Do not got by last year statistics, as last year most of the I-485s had to go through the whole adjudication process. This fiscal year, is just the final check before GC issue. I think majority of the approvals will happen by third week for cases already in demand(65-70%), all that I fear is further RFE cases.

[fun4dddd]

Thanks a lot to all for all the good work
Not a frequent visitor to any forum.
Just have a question, which i know would be difficult for anyone to answer.
I am eb2-I, April-02-2008 date. Wondering when would I be current
Not yet filed 485..

thanks

[indiani]

Thanks a lot to all for all the good work
Not a frequent visitor to any forum.
Just have a question, which i know would be difficult for anyone to answer.
I am eb2-I, April-02-2008 date. Wondering when would I be current
Not yet filed 485..

thanks

50% chance u will be current in sept

[vizcard]

50% chance u will be current in sept

and 100% by July 2014 :)

[Spectator]

Matt,

in the rapid movement last year how many visas at the max were approved per day, the reason I am asking is to anticipate when 2007 PD preadjudicated case might have a chance to get e-mail about approval .
If they can approve 1000K per day of pre-adjudicated cases then I can expect most likely within a week, if 500 per day then 2 weeks and if its going to be a random pick up of files anyday in augustI agree with MATT that you can't necessarily extrapolate what happened last year.

In March 2012, when the highest number of EB2-I cases were approved, the monthly approval rate seems to be about 9k. That takes into account the fact that EB2-I became internally retrogressed from March 23, 2012.

Such a rate may not be possible this year for EB2-I. There is also unusual competition for adjudication resources from EB3-ROW-C-M due to the recent advances in their Cut Off Dates. That is likely to peak from August onwards.

[Niksammy]

Do not got by last year statistics, as last year most of the I-485s had to go through the whole adjudication process. This fiscal year, is just the final check before GC issue. I think majority of the approvals will happen by third week for cases already in demand(65-70%), all that I fear is further RFE cases.

Matt/Q/Spec/Other Gurus,

Do you think that USCIS could be sending out large number of RFEs for already pre-adjudicated porting cases? If yes, do you expect them to be primarily EVL/ proof of status type RFEs or something else like birth/marriage certificates or vaccination records?

For people who have sent interfile requests after May 2012, USCIS should not be asking for EVL since they would have already got one at the time of interfiling. Would love to know your thoughts about this?


-Nik

[MATT2012]

Thanks a lot to all for all the good work
Not a frequent visitor to any forum.
Just have a question, which i know would be difficult for anyone to answer.
I am eb2-I, April-02-2008 date. Wondering when would I be current
Not yet filed 485..

thanks

My guess is that 75% of SO was applied to move dates until Jan1st,2008. With the remaining 25% EB2I PD may manage to reach end of March. But your date requires at least another one week of movement. I do not want to completely rule it out, as all our numbers are ranges. if EB1 consumes at the low end of our expectations it could. But I would say chances are slim.

[wolverine82]

My guess is that 75% of SO was applied to move dates until Jan1st,2008. With the remaining 25% EB2I PD may manage to reach end of March. But your date requires at least another one week of movement. I do not want to completely rule it out, as all our numbers are ranges. if EB1 consumes at the low end of our expectations it could. But I would say chances are slim.

I am also in same boat apr 4 so counting days for next bulletin as i may hit/miss by a week from looks of all predictions

[MATT2012]

I do think we have passed mass RFE stage. But RFE's cannot be ruled out for any reason. But chances of birth/marriage and vaccinations records RFE will be very less as majority of the cases got pre-adjudicated once.

Regarding RFE for interfiling cases after May 2012, logically they should not. But during the mass RFE from Texas even some of those cases were also included. I still think those RFEs were generated without adjudicating officers looking into the cases. Otherwise those many mistakes may not have happened.

[Vkkpnm]

Any prediction/comments on whether dates will retrogress in Oct/Nov bulletin?

[MATT2012]

Any prediction/comments on whether dates will retrogress in Oct/Nov bulletin?

Between October and November, I would say the chances of retrogression in Nov is higher. I expect porting numbers for the next fiscal very similar to this fiscal(may be a little less). The only difference there is no pending demand due to prior retrogression. As porting will stay high, there will not be enough visas from the normal quota to issues GCs. Also there will be pending cases from this fiscal in the beginning of next fiscal. For me all those points to Nov retrogression. Adding to all that, Indiani just confirmed what was communicated about next FY retrogression at AILA conference.

[indiani]

I agree with MATT that you can't necessarily extrapolate what happened last year.

In March 2012, when the highest number of EB2-I cases were approved, the monthly approval rate seems to be about 9k. That takes into account the fact that EB2-I became internally retrogressed from March 23, 2012.

Such a rate may not be possible this year for EB2-I. There is also unusual competition for adjudication resources from EB3-ROW-C-M due to the recent advances in their Cut Off Dates. That is likely to peak from August onwards.

In that case some cases with PD before jan 1st 2008 might not get GC in august itself ( I am not talking about interfilers ) and might have to wait till september.

with interfiling added I think the actual demand might end up being about 10+ thousand , so I am thinking in the same range like matt regarding sept bulletin; dates might move like 2-4 months at the max and I think its hard for someone to make a case for movement beyond may1st.

I will wait till mid-august then call uscis regarding case status, as the email after RFE respose said " decision within 60 days" even though that is generally meant for when dates are current.

[fun4dddd]

I am also in same boat apr 4 so counting days for next bulletin as i may hit/miss by a week from looks of all predictions

Thanks All, Keeping my fingers crossed.

[Spectator]

Any prediction/comments on whether dates will retrogress in Oct/Nov bulletin?I admit I am struggling on this one.

I don't see how it can't retrogress in October, despite what the VB might imply.

Here's some "facts" as I see them.

a) CO will have to set the October VB about September 8, 2013.

b) Per the law, CO can use estimates based on historical trends when setting the VB Cut Off Date.

c) Visas for the FY usually run out about 2 weeks into September.

d) The Cut Off Date probably includes some contingency, which is why (c) above happens.

e) Unless spillover is released in October, the number of visas available to EB2-I in October is 2,803 * 9% = 252 visas.


By October 1, 2013 demand for EB2-I which CO could see would consist of:

i) The contingency in (d) above that couldn't be approved in FY2013 (spread over several PD years due to random approvals).

ii) Any cases in the 2 week period at the end of September (when dates were still Current, even if visas were not available) for which a visa was requested for the first time (recent applicants and porting).


It's difficult to see how (i) and (ii) above could not be more than 252, or that any reasonable forcast could come up with a figure less than that number.

In theory, CO could give more than 252 to EB2-I and still remain within the overall 9% limit if other EB groups had low demand, but I find it difficult to see how that might be the case, since they will also have some pent up demand from visas running out early in September 2013.

I can only conclude that if the dates do not retrogress in October 2013, it will be a deliberate decision. The problem is that potentially, if the Cut Off Date remains in 2008 for October 2013, the majority of EB2-I initial allocation of 2,803 could be used up in a single month unless internal "corrective action" is taken.

If I read MATT's latest Realistic forecast (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ar6Dprt7VeZzdElRQ1RiSzJUN0FjMU9lMURiSFJ1M Hc#gid=2) correctly, he is showing

Porting left over 25% ---------- 1,750
Current Demand Left Over 10% - 1,220

Total -------------------------- 2,970

as the number of cases that will not be approved in FY2013 and carry forward to FY2014 demand.


I've put it out there for criticism. I'm too close to it to see the flaws in the argument.

[vizcard]

im with you Spec..

From a LOGICAL and MATH standpoint, retrogression needs to be happen in Oct.

The only way I see it not happening is if the numbers this year are getting used up in aug itself and there might be a small number of cases that are pending. CO might then decide to address that small pending number in Oct and use up the 2014 quota and perhaps some QSP.

[Niksammy]

As per Matt's forecast/estimate, he expects that close to 25% of applicants will NOT get GC this year. Will this 25 % number primarily include first time i-485 applicants ?

Based on my understanding (which can be completely wrong), I thought a very small percentage of pre-adjudicated folks before 1 Jan 2008 (whether original EB2 folks or porters) who get RFEs(unfortunately in August) might miss the boat this time around. But it seems, that might not be the case(since 25% number looks high to me for pre-adjudicated cases). Any thoughts?

[indiani]

im with you Spec..

From a LOGICAL and MATH standpoint, retrogression needs to be happen in Oct.

The only way I see it not happening is if the numbers this year are getting used up in aug itself and there might be a small number of cases that are pending. CO might then decide to address that small pending number in Oct and use up the 2014 quota and perhaps some QSP.

I can't quote as this is from aila audio

this is what they say: pattern of movement in 2014 will be similar to 2013. ( not 2012)

this is my prediction: retrogression in oct to a point where the monthly quota will be about 300 and wait till last Q and calculate SO then move.

lets say if the DD in for oct shows even 2K , CO cannot keep it at the same date of sept bulletin, he has no choice but to retrogress

[Jagan01]

I can't quote as this is from aila audio

this is what they say: pattern of movement in 2014 will be similar to 2013. ( not 2012)

this is my prediction: retrogression in oct to a point where the monthly quota will be about 300 and wait till last Q and calculate SO then move.

lets say if the DD in for oct shows even 2K , CO cannot keep it at the same date of sept bulletin, he has no choice but to retrogress

I feel it had only taken fall across into account. It has been mentioned before but I would just re-iterate the same.

India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit.

If that is the case then the FB visa spillover is not accounted for. That would leave a potential 13k to EB2I to be consumed in Sep bulletin. I do not see any reason for dates to not move to Sep 2008.

I think Q mentioned that his tool predicted Sep 2008 and it should fall in line with that. Is there any indication to prove that spillover from FB visas has also been used in determining the Aug bulletin movement.

[kpt112107]

Just got SMS as "Your case SRCXXXX is now updated. Check My status........".
But I do not see any update / date change in uscis website. I didn't get mail also even subscribed for it. I think it will take a little while to reflect there.
I am not expecting that it is approved...but my intention to post here is just want to let you know that they are working on our cases who ever current in Aug Bulletin

[kumar19]

Just got SMS as "Your case SRCXXXX is now updated. Check My status........".
But I do not see any update / date change in uscis website. I didn't get mail also even subscribed for it. I think it will take a little while to reflect there.
I am not expecting that it is approved...but my intention to post here is just want to let you know that they are working on our cases who ever current in Aug Bulletin

Me too got the SMS but don't see any updates on uscis website.my PD is 07/31/2007 TSC EB2

[Spectator]

As per Matt's forecast/estimate, he expects that close to 25% of applicants will NOT get GC this year. Will this 25 % number primarily include first time i-485 applicants ?

Based on my understanding (which can be completely wrong), I thought a very small percentage of pre-adjudicated folks before 1 Jan 2008 (whether original EB2 folks or porters) who get RFEs(unfortunately in August) might miss the boat this time around. But it seems, that might not be the case(since 25% number looks high to me for pre-adjudicated cases). Any thoughts?I think you are getting hung up on detail.

I used MATT's figures so as not to impose mine on you and as an example that other people have similar thoughts. I probably owe him an apology for doing so. I don't know at the detail level exactly what they might mean. For example, not all might become demand during October.

The exact number is largely irrelevant - even a quarter is substantially more than 252. That was the point of using the figures.

But as a side effect, the less you think will fall through to FY2014, the the less dates will move in the September VB.

[MATT2012]

Spec,
Let me also start by saying, my thoughts are also very preliminary about retrogression. Before coming into any conclusion I would like to see pattern of approvals for interfile cases.

My current thought process is the majority of the existing interfile cases (June 2012 and July 2013) will be submitted for visa numbers between week 3 and week 6. So when October bulletin comes out the interfiles submitted until that time is approved. The pending demand will start building from second week of September. Secondly as USCIS resources are stretched the NEW interfile applications submitted between August and September will show only by the time of November Bulletin (October 10th). So the carry forward logic in my calculation attempts to capture the overall number with a 25% figure of FY2013 porting. 10% - 15% from existing interfile cases and I gave an overall weightage of 10-15% for interfile cases between August and September (2 months/16 months). So my 25% number is derived from the sum total of both. There could be some additional cases with new I-485; those cases will only get reflected earliest at the time of November bulletin.
With regard to the 10% of existing cases, for those cases visas were already allocated and are not in demand when October bulletin is tabulated, it will appear only when those visas are returned with reason for returning. Due to pro-active RFEs that percentage may slightly come down.
If CO takes a calculated approach for PD setting, which is very well permitted under law the retrogression will happen in October. But if it is based on what is actually pending at the time of October bulletin (Sep 10th), he will wait for one more month.

Niksammy: I hope, I answered your question too.

[pseudonym]

Me too got the SMS but don't see any updates on uscis website.my PD is 07/31/2007 TSC EB2

I'm not sure the text message means much at this point. I received the same text message too right about the same time today, but my PD is March 11, 2008 (EB2I). No actual change to case status when I checked on the USCIS website.

[Spectator]

I feel it had only taken fall across into account. It has been mentioned before but I would just re-iterate the same.

India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit.

If that is the case then the FB visa spillover is not accounted for. That would leave a potential 13k to EB2I to be consumed in Sep bulletin. I do not see any reason for dates to not move to Sep 2008.

I think Q mentioned that his tool predicted Sep 2008 and it should fall in line with that. Is there any indication to prove that spillover from FB visas has also been used in determining the Aug bulletin movement.I think this has been beaten to death already. I suggest you read the posts about on the last few pages.

To precis it.

CO uses the term overall Employment Second preference annual limit to include any Fall Down. He has consistently used it with this meaning over several years of the VBs. The definition of the Employment Second preference annual limit under INA 203(b)(2)(A) (28.6% plus any visas not required for EB1) is the same as CO's use of the term.

CO used essentially the same term “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers in the July VB notes when talking about August and/or September. He must have been including Fall Down in that statement, or it loses any sense.

Without including Fall Down, the dates could not have moved to 01JAN08, there is likely to be no Fall Across from EB2-WW - at best it will be very small. Even the total remaining to EB2-WW today could not cover the movement.

[vizcard]

I feel it had only taken fall across into account. It has been mentioned before but I would just re-iterate the same.

India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit.

If that is the case then the FB visa spillover is not accounted for. That would leave a potential 13k to EB2I to be consumed in Sep bulletin. I do not see any reason for dates to not move to Sep 2008.

I think Q mentioned that his tool predicted Sep 2008 and it should fall in line with that. Is there any indication to prove that spillover from FB visas has also been used in determining the Aug bulletin movement.

Without the FB allocation, there is no way the dates would move to Jan 2008.

[Spectator]

MATT,

Thanks for the explanation - very clear.

[Vkkpnm]

So if PD gets retrogress in Oct or Nov or any other month, how far it will go back and stand there ?

[qesehmk]

Header updated.

[Kanmani]

Q, Do you still think FD is yet to happen and not accounted this time?

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Qesehmk.

[Niksammy]

Matt,

Yes, you answered my question. Thanks!

[vizcard]

So if PD gets retrogress in Oct or Nov or any other month, how far it will go back and stand there ?

I would expect it to be sometime in 2006..perhaps even Jan 1,2007

[yank]

Gurus,

Is it possible Aug movement is solely from EB1 and EB4 unused visas? FB visas are not yet allocated? Otherwise why there is no movement in EB3 except EB3P has some movement. Also, why there is sudden rise in porting from EB3 WW to EB2 WW.

Please reply.

[Vkkpnm]

I would expect it to be sometime in 2006..perhaps even Jan 1,2007

Is your statement contradicting with Q on page one where he predicted that it will clear backlog till Feb 08. Or probably i could not interpret him properly. I will go that far because of expected increase in Eb3 to Eb2 porting?

[qesehmk]

Kanmani

I think some of the FD is yet to be applied. There is pretty much no FA this time around. Because I expect EB2ROW to consume nearly all its quota and possibly 3K more. 6K of EB2IC quota (plus whatever 7% from 18K i.e. approx 560) is barely enough by itself to move the dates to Jan 2008.

So I think the date movement is made just as a teaser with some serious movement yet to come. I am being conservative when I say May. When I run through the tool - the tool gives me Feb - Jul as the range (worst vs best). But I wouldn't be surprised if the movement happened until Sep 2008. So bottomline 100% confident there has to be more movement in Sep (min 3 months I would say).


Q, Do you still think FD is yet to happen and not accounted this time?

[qesehmk]

VK .. its about different people following different methodology. So contradiction is good because that's how we avoid group think.

As per my own thinking I wouldn't be surprised if hte dates do go back to 2004. And you know why - because that 's where the EB3 demand must be strongest. Think about it... somebody EB3 who filed in 2004/5 - what that guy or gal must be doing? Isn't s/he most likely to get upgraded - switch job etc. With time who knows these people are very experienced and may be directors etc. That's why heaviest porting will always happen 1/3 years from where EB3 dates are today.
Is your statement contradicting with Q on page one where he predicted that it will clear backlog till Feb 08. Or probably i could not interpret him properly. I will go that far because of expected increase in Eb3 to Eb2 porting?

[Guest123]

Kanmani

I think some of the FD is yet to be applied. There is pretty much no FA this time around. Because I expect EB2ROW to consume nearly all its quota and possibly 3K more. 6K of EB2IC quota (plus whatever 7% from 18K i.e. approx 560) is barely enough by itself to move the dates to Jan 2008.

So I think the date movement is made just as a teaser with some serious movement yet to come. I am being conservative when I say May. When I run through the tool - the tool gives me Feb - Jul as the range (worst vs best). But I wouldn't be surprised if the movement happened until Sep 2008. So bottomline 100% confident there has to be more movement in Sep (min 3 months I would say).

Q,

How is 6560 (6K + 560) enough to move dates to Jan2008 when the DD shows 8050 until Jan 2008, without evening taking into account for the EB3 - EB2 porting numbers from Sep 2004 - Aug 2007.

[Kanmani]

Thanks Q. That is quite encouraging.

I am still in a dilemma what to interpret from this phrase "overall Employment Second preference annual limit", why Co Didn't purposely avoided the term "otherwise unused numbers".

I even tried to go through the previous years' bulletins to catch the pattern of his statements, I haven't succeeded yet.

[qesehmk]

It is not - that's what I am saying.

BTW - My opinion is DD has porting included.
Q,

How is 6560 (6K + 560) enough to move dates to Jan2008 when the DD shows 8050 until Jan 2008, without evening taking into account for the EB3 - EB2 porting numbers from Sep 2004 - Aug 2007.

Kanmani - good catch. Then that does indicate that more movement is yet to come.

Thanks Q. That is quite encouraging.

I am still in a dilemma what to interpret from this phrase "overall Employment Second preference annual limit", why Co Didn't purposely avoided the term "otherwise unused numbers".

I even tried to go through the previous years' bulletins to catch the pattern of his statements, I haven't succeeded yet.

[Jagan01]

It is not - that's what I am saying.

BTW - My opinion is DD has porting included.

Kanmani - good catch. Then that does indicate that more movement is yet to come.

Q, Kanmani,

Thanks for your opinion. I also interpreted the statement to say that there will be some of Family Based spillover that will come to EB2I in the coming bulletin. No movement for EB3I confirms that family based spillover is yet to be accounted for. EB2I should end up at 080808 as that is where China is.

By the way Chinese believe that 8 is lucky number for them. EB2C is currently 080808.

[Jagan01]

Thanks Q. That is quite encouraging.

I am still in a dilemma what to interpret from this phrase "overall Employment Second preference annual limit", why Co Didn't purposely avoided the term "otherwise unused numbers".

I even tried to go through the previous years' bulletins to catch the pattern of his statements, I haven't succeeded yet.

Q and Kanmani,

I saw the May 2011 bulletin and found the below wording

Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)

This is one instance when he (CO) has used the terms "unused numbers" and "annual limit". He clearly has a distinction. That makes me think that dates will move forward considerably in next buletin.

[Kanmani]

Spec,

Chinese have come to an conclusion that they are done with their annual EB2 quota . With the movement up to last month, do you have any opinion on their visa distribution ever included any FB numbers?

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Qesehmk.

[vizcard]

Is your statement contradicting with Q on page one where he predicted that it will clear backlog till Feb 08. Or probably i could not interpret him properly. I will go that far because of expected increase in Eb3 to Eb2 porting?

Current backlog doesn't preclude future porting. The hope is that porting per-2007 will be less than the monthly quota. If its more then dates will retrogress further.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Chinese have come to an conclusion that they are done with their annual EB2 quota . With the movement up to last month, do you have any opinion on their visa distribution ever included any FB numbers?Kanmani,

I can't say because the difference is rather modest and there is no info on new applications and any porting China may have had.

At the beginning of the year, movement to 08AUG08 required about 3k, if all cases were approved.

If I had to guess, I would say no, but I really don't know.

[Spectator]

Gurus,
I read some where The spillover from fb to eb was around 18.4k or 18.6k but in the bulletin or discussions so far we see the number of total available as 158k. The remaining 400-600 odd are they not being represented because of round off or being held as buffer or being wasted.The exact number FB fell short last year was 18,465.

There are some other calculations which can reduce the number slightly, but they never amount to many.

DOS cannot officially announce the EB and FB allocation numbers until USCIS have supplied certain information to DOS. You may have noticed that the VB has so far still said


The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.

Clearly USCIS have not given the required information to DOS in time to include the official figure in the August VB.

I expect it to be included in the September VB and it may lead to an increase of 400 or so.

Last year, the official announcement was not made until the September VB (Section D) because USCIS did not provide the required information to DOS about the previous 2 FY until August 8. That is pretty much the day the September VB had to be published.

Quite why it take USCIS so long to provide the information remains a mystery to me. I suspect they do it to deliberately annoy DOS.

[ggk189]

The exact number FB fell short last year was 18,465.

There are some other calculations which can reduce the number slightly, but they never amount to many.

DOS cannot officially announce the EB and FB allocation numbers until USCIS have supplied certain information to DOS. You may have noticed that the VB has so far still said



Clearly USCIS have not given the required information to DOS in time to include the official figure in the August VB.

I expect it to be included in the September VB and it may lead to an increase of 400 or so.

Last year, the official announcement was not made until the September VB (Section D) because USCIS did not provide the required information to DOS about the previous 2 FY until August 8. That is pretty much the day the September VB had to be published.

Quite why it take USCIS so long to provide the information remains a mystery to me.

Thanks for the response.

[qesehmk]

Perhaps they too have their own porting going on.
Kanmani,

I can't say because the difference is rather modest and there is no info on new applications and any porting China may have had.

At the beginning of the year, movement to 08AUG08 required about 3k, if all cases were approved.

If I had to guess, I would say no, but I really don't know.

[suninphx]

Kanmani

I think some of the FD is yet to be applied. There is pretty much no FA this time around. Because I expect EB2ROW to consume nearly all its quota and possibly 3K more.

Q- your calculation of EB2-ROW quota includes FB allocation too? In another workds are you looking for EB2-ROW to consume around 37-38 K or more?

[indiani]

India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. It is expected that such movement will generate a significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.

These changes for the Family F2A, and India Employment Second preference categories reflect actions which have been taken based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should expect that some type of “corrective” action will be required at some point during FY-2014 in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. Such action would involve the establishment and retrogression of such cut-off dates, and could occur at any time.


There is deliberate attempt to not mention anything for sept.

I think as the interfiling is going to be somewhat a significant factor, CO might be cautious.

One of the interestings things that charlie ( thats what CO prefers to be called) told fellow lawyers is that he never gives any date that is not possible as people might come back to him and ask why didnt move.

so as he mentioned feb 2008 ( i.e march 1st 2008 ), that is the minimum movement , so realistically it could be couple of months beyond that in sept

[Guest123]

It is not - that's what I am saying.

BTW - My opinion is DD has porting included.

Kanmani - good catch. Then that does indicate that more movement is yet to come.

Thanks for the reply, Q. That would be really great if your statement is true that DD has porting included. It would remove a lot of uncertainty.

[desitiger]

Kanmani

I think some of the FD is yet to be applied. There is pretty much no FA this time around. Because I expect EB2ROW to consume nearly all its quota and possibly 3K more. 6K of EB2IC quota (plus whatever 7% from 18K i.e. approx 560) is barely enough by itself to move the dates to Jan 2008.

So I think the date movement is made just as a teaser with some serious movement yet to come. I am being conservative when I say May. When I run through the tool - the tool gives me Feb - Jul as the range (worst vs best). But I wouldn't be surprised if the movement happened until Sep 2008. So bottomline 100% confident there has to be more movement in Sep (min 3 months I would say).


This is good stuff. Good enough to temporarily pull me out if my post VB depression.

[Kanmani]

5) I guess the first day, i.e. 1st August '13, almost everyone will send their I-485 application. So I-485 application should be sent by lawyer 2 days before Aug 1st, so that it reaches by Aug 1st? (may be this sound stupid question, but I could not resist myself to sound stupid ;)

In common practice, people rush their applications to grab an earlier spot in the queue, for whatever reason it may be, please make sure it reaches only on August 1st and later .

If it reaches one day earlier, the application will be rejected on a later date, may be even after the retrogression.

[Vkkpnm]

A quick question guys, do you think that i485/EAD processing will take more time than average time for applications filed in Aug/Sep because Uscis have so much backlog as a result of big movement?

[vizcard]

A quick question guys, do you think that i485/EAD processing will take more time than average time for applications filed in Aug/Sep because Uscis have so much backlog as a result of big movement?

For new 485 applications ..perhaps. I dont see it impacting EAD applications. They were very quick in 2012 when thousands of applications came in a short span but then they didn't have a lot of pending backlog (pre-adjudicated cases) prior to the movement like they do now.

[Vkkpnm]

So my chances of getting green this year further diminish as I have to file new I485 and my PD is Dec 07. :(

[indiani]

So my chances of getting green this year further diminish as I have to file new I485 and my PD is Dec 07. :(

last yr someone got GC in 58 days, so might too

[indiani]

Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot ‘see’ the I-140 cases that are approved and for which
adjustment of status had been requested , though he can ‘see’ cases for which consular processing is requested."
( courtesy AILA presentation )

Reposting

[Spectator]

A quick question guys, do you think that i485/EAD processing will take more time than average time for applications filed in Aug/Sep because Uscis have so much backlog as a result of big movement?A combination of preadjudicated cases and new EB3-WW cases doesn't help.

I'm not sure the chances are diminished. If visas run out mid way through September, it was always unlikely it would have been approved within 45 days of Receipt anyway. Even with an early walk-in, it might take 30 days to get the biometrics done.

If your date remains current in October, you may have a chance of an approval if there is no RFE, but even 90 days would have been considered quick until fairly recently.

Either way, the EAD processing time shouldn't be impacted.

[indiani]

spec,

i think in DD porters arent included, what do u think?

[indiani]

I meant interfilers whose PD was never current and new filers

[vizcard]

spec,

i think in DD porters arent included, what do u think?


I meant interfilers whose PD was never current and new filers

That is correct.

Once they file a 485 as EB2 and are pre-adjudicated, they will show up in demand. So theoretically every application (porting or regular) for PDs after July 2007 should show up in demand data.

[Guest123]

That is correct.

Once they file a 485 as EB2 and are pre-adjudicated, they will show up in demand. So theoretically every application (porting or regular) for PDs after July 2007 should show up in demand data.

How about EB3 before Jul 2007 who filed 485 as EB3 and then did the porting to EB2 - Will they be filing 485 now as EB2 again and that demand is not shown in DD yet?

Will these applications processed quickly in these 2 months just by interfiling to the old EB3 485 which is pre-adjudicated?

[vizcard]

How about EB3 before Jul 2007 who filed 485 as EB3 and then did the porting to EB2 - Will they be filing 485 now as EB2 again and that demand is not shown in DD yet?

Will these applications processed quickly in these 2 months just by interfiling to the old EB3 485 which is pre-adjudicated?

Those cases are inter-filing which is an administrative exercise since the 485 has been pre-adjudicated. My sense is that they will be approved so quickly that it won't really make the demand data at month end.

Honestly, I really am not 100% clear on what gets reported in demand data when it comes to porting. Perhaps Spec, Indiani, Q or Kanmani can help here. There are 4 categories of ppl who are "upgrading".

1. Pre-July 2007 - pre-adjuidcated no RFE
2. Pre-July 2007 - with RFE
3. Post-July 2007 - who never filed 485 (EB2 or EB3)
4. Post-July 2007 - who filed 485 as EB2

[Guest123]

Those cases are inter-filing which is an administrative exercise since the 485 has been pre-adjudicated. My sense is that they will be approved so quickly that it won't really make the demand data at month end.

Honestly, I really am not 100% clear on what gets reported in demand data when it comes to porting. Perhaps Spec, Indiani, Q or Kanmani can help here. There are 4 categories of ppl who are "upgrading".

1. Pre-July 2007 - pre-adjuidcated no RFE
2. Pre-July 2007 - with RFE
3. Post-July 2007 - who never filed 485 (EB2 or EB3)
4. Post-July 2007 - who filed 485 as EB2

1. Pre-July 2007 - pre-adjuidcated no RFE - is what is not represented in DD and is the unknown factor - will it be large enough to consume any additional spillover left and thereby by stall the EB2I date at 01/01/2008 or retrogress?

[indiani]

Those cases are inter-filing which is an administrative exercise since the 485 has been pre-adjudicated. My sense is that they will be approved so quickly that it won't really make the demand data at month end.

Honestly, I really am not 100% clear on what gets reported in demand data when it comes to porting. Perhaps Spec, Indiani, Q or Kanmani can help here. There are 4 categories of ppl who are "upgrading".

1. Pre-July 2007 - pre-adjuidcated no RFE
2. Pre-July 2007 - with RFE
3. Post-July 2007 - who never filed 485 (EB2 or EB3)
4. Post-July 2007 - who filed 485 as EB2

I have posted before what CO thinks is in DD which is more importanat than what anyone is this forum thinks. Read all my previous posts within a day and you will find it

[indiani]

Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot ‘see’ the I-140 cases that are approved and for which
adjustment of status had been requested , though he can ‘see’ cases for which consular processing is requested."
( courtesy AILA presentation )

Reposting 3rd time

[indiani]

IVCRD has no information on applicants with approved I-140
Immigrant Worker petitions (nor for that matter, applicants having approved I-130 Alien
Relative petitions) where AOS is selected, but the AOS was not filed despite a prior filing
eligibility window, or the applicant was never eligible for AOS filing, and the I-485 cannot now
be filed due to priority date backlogs." ( from AILA prsentation )

[Kanmani]

Spec,

I am presenting my view for your valuable comments.

Without the FB added to the anuual quota, China is entitled to receive only 2800 , with FB, China can receive 3163.

Purely accounting the straight forward cases from the inventory, oct'12 to July'13 covers 3k cases. Since COD has been moved past the date where it should stop at 2800 cases (normal scenario) can we assume their EB2 total as 3163? If yes that leaves only 163 visa numbers left under the FB added new quota with Zero porting accounted sofar.

Assuming (again) Zero porting numbers, with 163 visa numbers remaining , the 2 months move could consume 500 more approx, which directly targets the spillover from unused numbers.

For China to get otherwise unused numbers, EB2 India's COD must have reached 08 Aug 2008 to share the remaining if any with China.

My question is, what is the basis for CO to give a prediction of 2 months move over the remaining FY-2013? Do they have that much Visa numbers (20K) to cover? Or that was a mistake and he might take back his words?

[Spectator]

Spec,

I am presenting my view for your valuable comments.

Without the FB added to the annual quota, China is entitled to receive only 2800 , with FB, China can receive 3163.

Purely accounting the straight forward cases from the inventory, oct'12 to July'13 covers 3k cases. Since COD has been moved past the date where it should stop at 2800 cases (normal scenario) can we assume their EB2 total as 3163? If yes that leaves only 163 visa numbers left under the FB added new quota with Zero porting accounted sofar.

Assuming (again) Zero porting numbers, with 163 visa numbers remaining , the 2 months move could consume 500 more approx, which directly targets the spillover from unused numbers.

For China to get otherwise unused numbers, EB2 India's COD must have reached 08 Aug 2008 to share the remaining if any with China.

My question is, what is the basis for CO to give a prediction of 2 months move over the remaining FY-2013? Do they have that much Visa numbers (20K) to cover? Or that was a mistake and he might take back his words?Kanmani,

I can't see you accounting for the 7% portion of any Fall Down from EB1 that EB2-C appear to be entitled to. EB2 allocation is 45,188 plus Fall Down from EB1. 7% is prorated based on the allocation.

If, for instance, 10,000 visas fell down from EB1, then EB2-C share would be 10,000 * 7% = 700.

That would raise the EB2-C allocation to 2,803 + 360 + 700 = 3,863 or 55,188 * 7% if you prefer to look at it that way.

That sort of level (around 4k) was consistent with EB2-C progress to date and the forecast of up to 2 months per VB for the remainder of the year. EB2-C would have ended up in December 2008.

In this scenario, there is no need for EB2-I to share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-C, as EB2-C are still only using their 7% allocation of EB2 visas.

I thought it was this issue you were asking about in your previous post. I suspect I was wrong in that assumption.

The fact that it appears EB2-C can no longer reach that date says something has happened (and quite recently). Either other cases outside the known demand have used up the visas, Fall Down from EB1 is now thought to be less than before, or it is a combination of the two. A reduction in Fall down alone is very unlikely because the reduction would have to be very high compared to solely account for the difference.

We don't really know very much about Chinese cases. There is a perception that they have low porting, but no facts to base that on. It may also be that a large number of people were unable to file when the window was open in FY2012. Again, we don't know.

[Kanmani]

Spec, Please bare with my ignorance.

Why do we consider that Fall down from EB1 for 7 % per country limit at all? For all these years if it is 140k it is 2803 and anything else Falling down is free from per country limit is it not ?

This is what I see from DD document
Preference China* all Other Countries Worldwide Limit

E1 3,164 3,164 45,188
E2 3,163 3,163 45,188
E3/EW 2,863 3,163 45,188
E4/SR 785 785 11,218
E5 85 785 11,218
Total 10,060 11,060 158,000

[Spectator]

Spec, Please bare with my ignorance.

Why do we consider that Fall down from EB1 for 7 % per country limit at all? For all these years if it is 140k it is 2803 and anything else Falling down is free from per country limit is it not ?

This is what I see from DD document
Preference China* all Other Countries Worldwide Limit

E1 3,164 3,164 45,188
E2 3,163 3,163 45,188
E3/EW 2,863 3,163 45,188
E4/SR 785 785 11,218
E5 85 785 11,218
Total 10,060 11,060 158,000Kanmani,

There was a whole thread devoted to the topic quite some time ago. It wasn't this year, but the subject and the thread has already been discussed in this thread this year.

In my example above, the 7% figure for other Categories would reduce based on how many they had contributed to Fall Down. Simplistically, (although it is not exactly correct) you could think of the EB1 allocation as having reduced by 10,000 and that the 7% figure for EB1 would have reduced by 700. The total 7% number within EB would be unchanged.

I'll try and find it. If I do, I will add the link to this post.

Edit:- It is here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1197-Spillovers-Fall-Across-and-Fall-Down-How-it-Works).

[Vkkpnm]

A combination of preadjudicated cases and new EB3-WW cases doesn't help.

I'm not sure the chances are diminished. If visas run out mid way through September, it was always unlikely it would have been approved within 45 days of Receipt anyway. Even with an early walk-in, it might take 30 days to get the biometrics done.

If your date remains current in October, you may have a chance of an approval if there is no RFE, but even 90 days would have been considered quick until fairly recently.

Either way, the EAD processing time shouldn't be impacted.

Thanks Q, Viz, Indiani, Kanmani.., A couple of related questions

1. If dates get retrogressed, when would I get GC having Dec 07 PD. Just a rough estimates.
2. Most important one, If I able to file my I485 with in first week of Aug, Is there a chance that I get my EAD/AP before 10th Oct? I have to visit India during that time and want to book tickets accordingly.

Thanks in advance and appreciate your inputs on this.

[vizcard]

Thanks Q, Viz, Indiani, Kanmani.., A couple of related questions

1. If dates get retrogressed, when would I get GC having Dec 07 PD. Just a rough estimates.
2. Most important one, If I able to file my I485 with in first week of Aug, Is there a chance that I get my EAD/AP before 10th Oct? I have to visit India during that time and want to book tickets accordingly.

Thanks in advance and appreciate your inputs on this.

1. Summer 2014 at the latest
2. The official processing time is 90 days. Although most people last year got them way quicker than that. I even got my renewal in 60 days. As Jim Carrey says in "Dumb and Dumber" .. So there is a chance! :)

[Kanmani]

Thanks Q, Viz, Indiani, Kanmani.., A couple of related questions

1. If dates get retrogressed, when would I get GC having Dec 07 PD. Just a rough estimates.
2. Most important one, If I able to file my I485 with in first week of Aug, Is there a chance that I get my EAD/AP before 10th Oct? I have to visit India during that time and want to book tickets accordingly.

Thanks in advance and appreciate your inputs on this.

1. In AILA conference, there is an indication that the FY'14 COD moviement will be as similar as to FY'13. If so, the next movement will start from July of next year.

2. Last year's pattern was 45-60 days in TSC. NSC was processing significantly late.

Most importantly, you cannot travel before finger printing .

[qesehmk]

VK - I think you should be prepared for a binary outcome i.e. you either get greened by end of Oct (assuming your date will stay current through at least october) OR post retrogression your date will be current again next Aug/Sep.

If you file on 1st Aug - I would give it 4 months of total processing time - although you could be lucky. It means Nov is when you could get GC. Or if the dates retrogress - then next Aug.

Sorry - it's not ideal. In fact its quite cruel. But unfortunately that's what it is.



Thanks Q, Viz, Indiani, Kanmani.., A couple of related questions

1. If dates get retrogressed, when would I get GC having Dec 07 PD. Just a rough estimates.
2. Most important one, If I able to file my I485 with in first week of Aug, Is there a chance that I get my EAD/AP before 10th Oct? I have to visit India during that time and want to book tickets accordingly.

Thanks in advance and appreciate your inputs on this.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks everyone for your prompt response.

[qesehmk]

Not many people would get that!!

My favorite part of the movie is when they are looking for the girl's address in directory and the other guy ask Jim Carey her name. Jim Carey says "Mary Swanson" and then he utters a second and a third and finally gives up. Another one of course is the beer one ;)
As Jim Carrey says in "Dumb and Dumber" .. So there is a chance! :)

[Spectator]

I've been looking at the new Labor Certification Registry (http://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm?event=ehLCJRExternal.dspLCRLanding) Data. It doesn't include the Country of the applicant in the displayed results, although that information is contained in the pdf attachment for each record.

Therefore any analysis can not split the data by Country. I will have to wait for the official Disclosure Data for that.

It is a pain to extract all the data. I won't guarantee the total numbers are 100% (I can only guarantee 99%) :) It is not an exercise I am likely to repeat.

Nonetheless, here is what I was able to find for data in Q3 and July 1 to 10 and analysed by the PD of the application.

April

PD
2007 ----- 1
2008 ----- 1
2009 ----- 0
2010 ----- 4
2011 ---- 34
2012 - 2,446
2013 ----- 1

Total - 2,487

May

PD
2007 ----- 3
2008 ---- 17
2009 ----- 7
2010 ----- 2
2011 ---- 36
2012 - 2,164
2013 --- 335

Total - 2,564

June

PD
2007 ----- 0
2008 ----- 3
2009 ----- 0
2010 ----- 2
2011 ---- 60
2012 --- 926
2013 --- 747

Total - 1,738

July 1 - 10

PD
2007 ----- 0
2008 ----- 0
2009 ----- 0
2010 ----- 0
2011 ----- 5
2012 --- 211
2013 --- 294

Total --- 510

Total Certifications for PD 2012 are now slightly higher than for PD 2011.

All Certifications for PD 2013 to date are for January 2013 only. DOL have been painfully slow recently.

PS:- One quirk I have found with the LCR system. For a given date range search, the results will always include 1 day beyond the ending date. e.g If you want the figures for May, you need to enter a range of 05/01/2013 to 05/30/2013. If the ending date is 05/31/2013 the results will include 06/01/2013 as well.

[gs1968]

Some changes to the EB-5 program which might affect spillover

http://www.lexisnexis.com/legalnewsroom/immigration/b/insidenews/archive/2013/07/13/sec-clears-way-with-strict-rules-to-attract-eb-5-immigrant-investors.aspx

[natvyas]

1. In AILA conference, there is an indication that the FY'14 COD moviement will be as similar as to FY'13. If so, the next movement will start from July of next year.

2. Last year's pattern was 45-60 days in TSC. NSC was processing significantly late.

Most importantly, you cannot travel before finger printing .

I think it said that the "Pattern" would be similar to FY'13, which tells me no movement till Aug of 2014. With the numbers dwindling across the board I dont think we will see a similar movement in FY14 but it is too early to say.

[veni001]

1. In AILA conference, there is an indication that the FY'14 COD moviement will be as similar as to FY'13. If so, the next movement will start from July of next year.

2. Last year's pattern was 45-60 days in TSC. NSC was processing significantly late.

Most importantly, you cannot travel before finger printing .

Kanmani,

That is not true, one can travel after filing 485 on a valid non-immigrant VISA.

But it is strongly recommended to come back for fingerprints with out trying to reschedule.

This is based on personal experience.

[Vkkpnm]

Thanks Veni. Any idea of the average time of receiving FP request?

[vizcard]

Thanks Veni. Any idea of the average time of receiving FP request?

Within 30 days of receipt date.

[Vkkpnm]

Within 30 days of receipt date.

Thanks Veni

[vizcard]

I moved the discussion related to AC21 and job change before 180 days to a new thread - Link (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2166-AC21-Questions-from-Primus)

[qesehmk]

Friends - please post your questions that are not relevant to this thread - here in this thread - ONLY after you have already posted it else where and failed to receive a response.

Please respect moderators' time and effort. It is understandable and ok to post here if you don't get response elsewhere.

Thank you.

[rosharma]

Gurus,

Do you believe the porting rate (EB3I to EB2I) in FY 2014 will be same as in FY 2013? It seems Porters till July-2007 will be assigned visa numbers in FY 2013 itself and rest will at least be pre-adjudicated. Eb3 folks (post Jan-2008) may apply for porting (considering the fact that you need min 5 year experience before you can apply for porting) but I believe the process takes time and the total interfiling may be less for that period. The Eb3 folks, who missed the boat this time around (the ones whose applications are still in process), may still generate some demand – but it should be much less compare to FY 2013. Please advise.

[Spectator]

Gurus,

Do you believe the porting rate (EB3I to EB2I) in FY 2014 will be same as in FY 2013? It seems Porters till July-2007 will be assigned visa numbers in FY 2013 itself and rest will at least be pre-adjudicated. Eb3 folks (post Jan-2008) may apply for porting (considering the fact that you need min 5 year experience before you can apply for porting) but I believe the process takes time and the total interfiling may be less for that period. The Eb3 folks, who missed the boat this time around (the ones whose applications are still in process), may still generate some demand – but it should be much less compare to FY 2013. Please advise.Welcome to the forum.

I believe the rate of porting from all years will remain unchanged, but at the same time, the actual number of Porting cases approved in FY2014 will be less than will be approved in FY2013.

Because visas ran out in April 2012 last year, many months worth of porting cases have been shifted to FY2013 which will result in an abnormally high number this year.

That won't be the case for FY2014.

But people will still be porting with PD from 2003 onwards will be completing the process and waiting for their PD to become Current. Most of those with a PD before August 2007 will already have an I-485 under EB3. Those who do have to file an I-485 for the first time when their PD becomes Current late in the FY, probably will not be approved in FY2014.

As you observe, the porting process is a long, arduous and expensive business and there is a conveyor like effect of various people at different positions in the process.

[mysati]

Hi all,

Have a few questions on FB GC process. Can anyone please help?

1. Now that the dates are current how long does it typically take for getting a GC if one applies in August?

2. What is the typical attorney fee (apart from the DHS standard fees) for one applicant?

3. The VB mentions about retrogression in a few months. What has caused this forward movement to 'C'? Is it like a pipeline build-up like what happened with the EB category in 2011/2012?

4. How far is it likely to retrogress for F2A India?

I would really appreciate any inputs, thanks!

P.S. I am unable to see an FB thread and hence I am posting it here. Moderators, please feel free to move/ delete once answered, thanks!

[Spectator]

Thoughts inline, but i don't know enough about the subject.


Hi all,

Have a few questions on FB GC process. Can anyone please help?

1. Now that the dates are current how long does it typically take for getting a GC if one applies in August?

That would depend on many factors. The I-130 would have to be approved for that to happen. The only statistics I could find for I-130 processing were from USCIS as of April 30, 2013

CSC -- I-130 -- Petition for Alien Relative -- Permanent resident filling for a spouse or child under 21 -- November 15, 2011
VSC -- I-130 -- Petition for Alien Relative -- Permanent resident filling for a spouse or child under 21 -- March 19, 2012

but I think FB cases may be sent to Chicago. Whether they are distributed from there, I have no idea.

You may want to look at the Trackitt Tracker for I-130 (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigration-trackers/i130) and F2A adjusting within the USA. A quick look says the I-130 takes anywhere between 130 days to over a year to approve. About 6 months seems to be the median time from looking at a page of data.

You could not apply until the primary becomes a GC holder themselves.

2. What is the typical attorney fee (apart from the DHS standard fees) for one applicant?

No idea.

3. The VB mentions about retrogression in a few months. What has caused this forward movement to 'C'? Is it like a pipeline build-up like what happened with the EB category in 2011/2012?

It is not simply to build up Inventory. As of November 2012, DOS alone had 220k F2A cases. Most cases use Consular Processing. As the VB says, it has been caused because a lower number of people than expected are proceeding with their cases.


Despite the fact that there are large amounts of registered F2A demand, currently there are not enough applicants who are actively pursuing final action on their case to fully utilize all of the available numbers.
4. How far is it likely to retrogress for F2A India?

No idea. Probably to some time in 2012 if I had to guess.

I would really appreciate any inputs, thanks!

P.S. I am unable to see an FB thread and hence I am posting it here. Moderators, please feel free to move/ delete once answered, thanks!

[mysati]

Thoughts inline, but i don't know enough about the subject.

Hi Spec,

Thank you for the reply. I really appreciate your help. I have one more question though.

When does one get an EAD and AP through this process, after the I-130 is approved or 3-4 months after just filing for I-130 and 485(per the standard processing time)?

Thanks again!

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

Thank you for the reply. I really appreciate your help. I have one more question though.

When does one get an EAD and AP through this process, after the I-130 is approved or 3-4 months after just filing for I-130 and 485(per the standard processing time)?

Thanks again!The EAD and AP are benefits of the I-485 process. The I-130 does not need to be approved to receive that benefit. The wait time to receive them should not be different to an EB case. The USCIS Processing Times shows 3 months.

PS:- I added to my previous post about I-130 approval times and a suggestion to look at the Trackitt Tracker (with link).

[mysati]

The EAD and AP are benefits of the I-485 process. The I-130 does not need to be approved to receive that benefit. The wait time to receive them should not be different to an EB case. The USCIS Processing Times shows 3 months.

PS:- I added to my previous post about I-130 approval times and a suggestion to look at the Trackitt Tracker (with link).

Thanks a ton! Really admire your knowledge on the subject!

[rosharma]

Hi Spec,

I really appreciate your inputs. So in FY 2014 there won’t be 7K EB3-EB2 porters (as was the case in FY 2013). My priority date is Feb-2009 and EB2-I’s 2008 current backlog is alone 16K. The reason I am asking about porting is because I am trying to guesstimate if I have any realistic chance of getting greened in FY 2014.

[inspired_p]

Hi all,
I have a question - Considering that the priority date of May 2010 EB-2 I was current last year , what percentage of applicants till that priority date would have been included in the demand data?
As i would assume that 75% of applicants who were current would have already applied for I-485 and hence now once the priority date has moved to jan 2008 , not many new applications should filed? only the existing pending applications would be adjudicated.

What is the realistic timeline for end of October 2010 EB-2 I (for all practical purposes Nov 2010 ) to be current ?

I am a newbie and try to follow the comments of the experts , but posting for the first time.

Regards

[Spectator]

Thanks a ton! Really admire your knowledge on the subject!You're welcome, although I do not think I do have particularly good knowledge of the FB system.

One other thought, which I hope is inapplicable.

The provisions of 245(k) (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/Archives%201998-2008/2008/245%28k%29_14jul08.pdf), which allow up to 180 days combined time Out Of Status and Unauthorised Employment since the last admission to the USA, only apply to EB cases in Categories EB1-EB4.

There is no such protection for FB cases. If there is any time Out of Status or Unauthorized Employment since the last admission, then the person would not be eligible for Adjustment Of Status within the USA.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

I really appreciate your inputs. So in FY 2014 there won’t be 7K EB3-EB2 porters (as was the case in FY 2013). My priority date is Feb-2009 and EB2-I’s 2008 current backlog is alone 16K. The reason I am asking about porting is because I am trying to guesstimate if I have any realistic chance of getting greened in FY 2014.rosharma,

It should return to the normal rate, whatever that is - maybe 3-4k.

Unless there are substantial unused FB number this FY which can be added to next year's EB allocation, unfortunately I don't think reaching your PD would be possible if EB2-I finishes this year anywhere in the first half of 2008.

Let's see what the September VB brings.

[vizcard]

Hi all,
I have a question - Considering that the priority date of May 2010 EB-2 I was current last year , what percentage of applicants till that priority date would have been included in the demand data?
As i would assume that 75% of applicants who were current would have already applied for I-485 and hence now once the priority date has moved to jan 2008 , not many new applications should filed? only the existing pending applications would be adjudicated.

What is the realistic timeline for end of October 2010 EB-2 I (for all practical purposes Nov 2010 ) to be current ?

I am a newbie and try to follow the comments of the experts , but posting for the first time.

Regards

Welcome to the forum.

I'd say minimum summer FY15 (in absence of immigration reform and any weird events). Rule of thumb is PD+5 yrs. But I imagine towards the end of FY15 we'll be closing in on mid-late 2009 PDs and CO might want to build inventory again.

[PD2008AUG25]

Welcome to the forum.

I'd say minimum summer FY15 (in absence of immigration reform and any weird events). Rule of thumb is PD+5 yrs. But I imagine towards the end of FY15 we'll be closing in on mid-late 2009 PDs and CO might want to build inventory again.

I think, rule of thumb needs to be updated to PD+6 years. Viz, we would be lucky if we get greened by Aug 2014 (PD + 6).

As spec explained in prevous posts, outlook for 2014 isn't really great. All traditional sources for SO are drying up and without legislative relief, PD+7 isn't unlikely in near future.

[rferni]

Most of those with a PD before August 2007 will already have an I-485 under EB3.

I have seen this statement repeatedly, but don't quite understand - did EB3I dates advance till August 2007 at some point in order for folks from EB3I to have I-485s already on file? If so, are these included in EB2I demand data or is that counted against EB2I demand only after the date is current and an interfiling letter has been sent?

Many thanks in advance for your clarification.

[vizcard]

I think, rule of thumb needs to be updated to PD+6 years. Viz, we would be lucky if we get greened by Aug 2014 (PD + 6).

As spec explained in prevous posts, outlook for 2014 isn't really great. All traditional sources for SO are drying up and without legislative relief, PD+7 isn't unlikely in near future.

i agree in theory. Although if last year wasn't such as cluster in terms of random approvals, our PD would have been current this year. So for now I'm still sticking with PD+5 with a bearish outlook.

[vizcard]

I have seen this statement repeatedly, but don't quite understand - did EB3I dates advance till August 2007 at some point in order for folks from EB3I to have I-485s already on file? If so, are these included in EB2I demand data or is that counted against EB2I demand only after the date is current and an interfiling letter has been sent?

Many thanks in advance for your clarification.

Summer of 2007, everyone was made C. thats why a lot of EB3 have filed their 485s. We had a term called PWMB (People who missed the boat) for a while to refer to EB2s and EB3s who missed that window to file. (Ofcourse now we have a new set of PWMBs who missed out last year).

The EB3 folks who are porting will not show in EB2 demand data..although they do show in EB3 demand. When they become current, the interfiling is a technicality so they will be in teh demand but will most likely not be a demand data report as they will be cleared almost instantaneously (similar to how EB1 or EB2 ROW works).

[Spectator]

I have seen this statement repeatedly, but don't quite understand - did EB3I dates advance till August 2007 at some point in order for folks from EB3I to have I-485s already on file? If so, are these included in EB2I demand data or is that counted against EB2I demand only after the date is current and an interfiling letter has been sent?

Many thanks in advance for your clarification.The dates were Current for everybody except EB3-EW in July 2007.

PERM from Chicago was being approved in 2-3 days, although those at Atlanta were not quite so lucky. It was clear as EB2-I went through those dates last year that nearly everybody through about April 2007 was able to file a concurrent I-140/I-485 application. Depending where there the PERM was, the number unable to file an I-485 increases towards July 2007 but most people were still able to file. The date to file under the July 2007 VB was extended to August 17, 2007.

That's why people say that most cases with a PD before August 2007 in EB3 will already have an I-485 submitted.

Porting cases cannot be shown under EB2 until the PD under EB2 is Current (although some people differ in this opinion). Therefore, for cases that completed the interfiling process after May 2012 with a PD after August 2004, the date has never been Current under EB2 again and they do not currently form part of the EB2 Demand.

That will change on August 1, 2013. But since they will be Current, if they are adjudicated and a visa is requested, it will be immediately available, the case can be approved and it will not appear in the Demand Data published monthly. Only when the dates retrogress again and a visa can not be allocated when requested, will the case appear in the Demand Data.

I'm sure that is clear as mud.

[dontcrib]

Hi Gurus,

Mine is EB3 to Eb2 porting case with PD as 09 SEP 2008, I have not applied my 485 yet, Could you please provide a time frame considering the current demand when i can at least file 485 to get an EAD and AP.. Appreciate your responses..

[rferni]

The dates were Current for everybody except EB3-EW in July 2007.

Makes sense now - thank you for the information


Since they will be Current, if they are adjudicated and a visa is requested, it will be immediately available, the case can be approved and it will not appear in the Demand Data published monthly. Only when the dates retrogress again and a visa can not be allocated when requested, will the case appear in the Demand Data.

I'm sure that is clear as mud.

Interesting. So in addition to the 8050 EB2I numbers reported in the 6/7/2013 Demand Data (number of I-485s on file with priority dates before 01/01/2008), there could be several thousand EB3 porters in line with already adjudicated I-485s, waiting to be approved? Realistically, if that number is 3000 - 4000, there may be no more spillover left to move dates further, correct? Assuming this number is pre-adjudicated, will this porting number be known to the DOS prior to the release of the Sep 2013 visa bulletin?

In other words, between 08/01/2013 (when the august window for filing opens) and 08/10/2013 (when the DOS releases the Sep 2013 visa bulletin), would it be possible that the DOS would be staring down this scenario?
1. 8050 existing EB2I are pre-adjudicated and allocated visa numbers?
2. Anywhere between 3000 - 4000 EB3I filers with already pre-adjudicated I485s on file have filed interfiling letters and allocated visa numbers?

Again, very much appreciate your help and insight. As you may tell from my profile, my EB2I priority date is 01/04/2008 and I am curious to understand the math that led to the DOS establishing a cutoff 4 days before my priority date :)

[vizcard]

Makes sense now - thank you for the information



Interesting. So in addition to the 8050 EB2I numbers reported in the 6/7/2013 Demand Data (number of I-485s on file with priority dates before 01/01/2008), there could be several thousand EB3 porters in line with already adjudicated I-485s, waiting to be approved? Realistically, if that number is 3000 - 4000, there may be no more spillover left to move dates further, correct? Assuming this number is pre-adjudicated, will this porting number be known to the DOS prior to the release of the Sep 2013 visa bulletin?

In other words, between 08/01/2013 (when the august window for filing opens) and 08/10/2013 (when the DOS releases the Sep 2013 visa bulletin), would it be possible that the DOS would be staring down this scenario?
1. 8050 existing EB2I are pre-adjudicated and allocated visa numbers?
2. Anywhere between 3000 - 4000 EB3I filers with already pre-adjudicated I485s on file have filed interfiling letters and allocated visa numbers?

Again, very much appreciate your help and insight. As you may tell from my profile, my EB2I priority date is 01/04/2008 and I am curious to understand the math that led to the DOS establishing a cutoff 4 days before my priority date :)

All of this was discussed a few pages back around the time the visa bulletin came out. Scan through those and see if you get what you need.

but short answer is ... general consensus is that dates will move in the Sept VB. How much - varies depends on who you ask.

[JackD1]

Hello everyone,

I recently came across this forum and i will have to say, it is one of the very informative, to the point and one of the most civil forums i have seen. Now i am kind of addicted to it and check it every day. :)
I wanted to present my situation and see if any the experts here can enlighten me --

My PD is 08/04/2008, EB2I, Applied 485 in 04/2012, Renewed EAD in 02/2013 and now EAD is valid till 02/2015. I have been working as a consultant since my first H1 and just switched my employer and recently joined another consultant. Now my H1 is renewed till 05/2016 and my lawyer filed AC21 last week.

The project i am working on right now is a full time/work from home. But in actuality there is not much work. I am in support job and if no projects are going on then i have max of 15-20 hours of actual work every week.

1) What are the chances of me getting my GC in FY2014 if not in 2013 ?

2) Do you know if it would be ok to take on another job (if i find another work from home position ?)

3) If answer to (2) is yes, then would it have to be a consulting position (so that i am with the same employer) ? or i can join another company as full time employee/or consultant using my EAD ?

3) I asked my employer about finding another project for me and whether it would be ok to work on 2 projects and he said that they will have to file another LCA for the new position and then i can on multiple positions. But i am trying to find out if i can join another company as full time employee on EAD as i am sick of paying 20% to my employer and want to join the vendor directly so i can get higher billing rate for myself.

Thanks a lot and i really appreciate your help.