Poll - Do you favor HR2131 over status quo (no bill)

[GhostWriter]

This is a poll to find out if the forum members would prefer HR2131 over status quo (i.e. no bill) or not. It is not a comparison of HR2131 with the senate bill. We all know Senate bill is better than HR2131. The point over which a good discussion has taken place is if EB community should prefer HR2131 over current situation. You can go through the information at the below links before making up your mind and then vote.

Posts with arguments in favor and against the bill (Page 67 onwards) (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2033-Discussion-On-The-Politics-of-Immigration-Reform-(Comprehensive-Or-Otherwise)/page67)

HR 2131 and Senate bill summary (http://immigration.uschamber.com/uploads/sites/400/summary_house_senate_high_skilled_comparison_table _8_5_2013.pdf)

HR 2131 Bill summary (http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d113:HR02131:@@@L&summ2=m&)

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Added by Q.

Thanks Ghost.
Everybody is welcome to read these sources and post just one single post below to make a case for or against 2131. DO NOT ADDRESS EACH OTHER. Simply make a case if you wish.
p.s. - PLEASE respect moderators' time. Post only if you are making a case for or against or even if your neutral analysis like Ghost. No discussions or questions or arguments with each others please.

[qesehmk]

Here is my case in FAVOR of 2131.

1. It removes per country caps which brings all EB immigrants in FIFO systems within their own categories. I think this is a just system.
2. It increases EB cap by 95K.
3. It allows H4 spouses to work.
4. It increases H1 by almost 100K.

So on all fronts it furthers immigration. For current backlogged candidates it will result in faster backlog reductions. For future candidates it can't promise that backlogs will be eased. However my personal opinion is that because it furthers the goal of increased immigration while doing away with the unjust country caps, it is a great bill and an improvement over status quo.

[GhostWriter]

I am not making a case in favor or agianst the bill at this time. Just a summary of my thoughts below.

Since we are discussing the short term vs. long term of the bill, i thought i will attempt to put down how it might play out over the next few years. The comparison is with current situation (i.e. no bill) and not with Senate bill.
It is guesswork so can be totally off.

Overall the bill can be summarized as below for EB

HR2131 = HR3012 (EB country limit removal) + H4 work authorization + 85K new EB GCs + 4K new nurse GCs + 110K new H1-Bs

Of the 85K EB visas 70K will be used in EB1/EB2 and 15K will be exclusively used in EB3.

Let us say it goes into effect from Sep-2014 (could be any other time, should not matter a lot)

FY-2015 - EB2 (combined) should get a cut-off in 2012 or 2013 (better for EB2-I than where it would have been otherwise).
EB3 (combined) should get a cut-off in 2008 (better for EB3-I than where it would have been otherwise).

FY-2016 - EB2 (combined) should most likely be current, possible spillover to EB3
EB3 (comined) should get a cut-off in 2009 or 2010

FY-2017 - This is when we can expect the new H1-Bs filed in 2015 and 2016 to start filing for Greencards. The extra filings besides the normal should be moderate, we are still 2 years from the increased H1-Bs. EB2 most likely should stay current. EB3 should be in 2011.

FY-2018 onwards - We can expect the additional GC applications to increase from 2018 onwards. Very hard to predict what will happen. It will depend on the mix of EB1, EB2 and EB3 applications. If two-thirds of the additional 110K H1-Bs file for GC (assuming H1-B quota is fully used) with two dependents each we get 146K extra applications with 85K extra Greencards. That is an incremental backlog of 61K per year (will be distributed unevenly between EB2 and EB3 as EB3 gets 15K out of 85K new GCs).

To be honest it is hard to forecast the dynamics 5 years from now. Depends on the economy not only in US but in other countries as well.

[helooo]

Here is my case in FAVOR of 2131.

1. It removes per country caps which brings all EB immigrants in FIFO systems within their own categories. I think this is a just system.
2. It increases EB cap by 95K.
3. It allows H4 spouses to work.
4. It increases H1 by almost 100K.

So on all fronts it furthers immigration. For current backlogged candidates it will result in faster backlog reductions. For future candidates it can't promise that backlogs will be eased. However my personal opinion is that because it furthers the goal of increased immigration while doing away with the unjust country caps, it is a great bill and an improvement over status quo.

It only icreases EB cap by 55K.Total EB GC will be 195K.
It doesn't remove derivatives from cap.
The worse thing is increase in H1B and no increase in GC's will make it very tough for future EB immigrants to get GC because the backlog will be worst than now.
If they can increase GC's like in Senate bill,then this will be a good bill.
No doubt it will help current applicants.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I was leaning for the bill while gradually vocalizing my arguments when i found this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2033-Discussion-On-The-Politics-of-Immigration-Reform-(Comprehensive-Or-Otherwise)?p=40051#post40051) from Ghost, that articulates my nascent thoughts very well.

I will take longer wait times for everyone over shorter wait times for some and super long wait times for others. Also, if this ends up creating two classes of foreign workers, the temporary non immigrant workers and permanent immigrant workers, so be it. Not ideal, but its still better for businesses and the immigrants already here than the status quo.

[feedmyback]

I sincerely believe that the only reason senate has so many provisions for EB folks is because unless all the EB backlog is cleared out very soon they will not be able to promise anything to illegals who are going to stand behind the legals in the line.

Apart from that, helping EB people get more GCs and making their life easy is never anyone's agenda. If anyone believes what the politicians say and bases their arguments on what politicians say, God save them.

With that explanation I believe in, I would any day take 2131 over status quo. Because no one here is working towards easing pains of EB folks. And they will never work with that goal in mind. In my opinion take anything over status quo. In that sense 2131 actually increases EB green cards no matter where it gets them from.

And thinking that US govt and politicians should strike a balance between number of H1s and number of GCs is only wishful thinking. We are just being emotional and thinking from an "Indian" perspective. sorry to say but that is true. The thought itself is a joke to begin with. Their main goal is to have more H1s because of the push from corporates. I guess HR2131 is much better than status quo.

My 2 cents anyways.....



It only icreases EB cap by 55K.Total EB GC will be 195K.
It doesn't remove derivatives from cap.
The worse thing is increase in H1B and no increase in GC's will make it very tough for future EB immigrants to get GC because the backlog will be worst than now.
If they can increase GC's like in Senate bill,then this will be a good bill.
No doubt it will help current applicants.