All Aug 2013 485 APPROVALS & DISCUSSION - report here with details

[Spectator]

Although they haven't updated their profiles yet, I see there have been 2 EB2-I approvals on Trackitt today.

Both were porters - one with a December 2004 PD and the other with a March 2006 PD. Both were at NSC.

[MATT2012]

Although they haven't updated their profiles yet, I see there have been 2 EB2-I approvals on Trackitt today.

Both were porters - one with a December 2004 PD and the other with a March 2006 PD. Both were at NSC.

it was interesting that both approvals were porters, within couple of hours visa was requested, visa was received and status got changed!!. Is it a possibility that visa requests were made during the last few weeks in anticipation of the movement and approvals are coming in now?

[Spectator]

it was interesting that both approvals were porters, within couple of hours visa was requested, visa was received and status got changed!!. Is it a possibility that visa requests were made during the last few weeks in anticipation of the movement and approvals are coming in now?Could be, or least lined up at the top of the pile to request one.

I thought it was worth noting, since there has been a lot of speculation about how quickly porting cases could be approved.

Let's see what happens over the next week or so - they could be outliers.

You can follow the PD split of approvals in the FACTS & DATA section for people who do upate thee profile. I saw you made a polite request for people to do so.

[MATT2012]

Could be, or least lined up at the top of the pile to request one.

I thought it was worth noting, since there has been a lot of speculation about how quickly porting cases could be approved.

Let's see what happens over the next week or so - they could be outliers.

You can follow the PD split of approvals in the FACTS & DATA section.

Yes, it was indeed worth noting and in both the cases there were no written interfile requests, though in one case email request was sent.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Opening this thread for all those lucky folks who get 485 approvals :-)

[Kanmani]

it was interesting that both approvals were porters, within couple of hours visa was requested, visa was received and status got changed!!. Is it a possibility that visa requests were made during the last few weeks in anticipation of the movement and approvals are coming in now?

I suspected the same when CPO emails were sent to few ( few in trackitt, we may not know how many exactly).

[bvsamrat]

June 2007 porter who has I-140 approved in Jan 2013 got CPO. I wonder if he had been listed in EB2 I DD at all . Appears to be a striaght forward case as all documents must be recent and in order.


Yes, it was indeed worth noting and in both the cases there were no written interfile requests, though in one case email request was sent.

[eb2visa]

One approval just posted with "02/01/2005" priority date on trackitt


Although they haven't updated their profiles yet, I see there have been 2 EB2-I approvals on Trackitt today.

Both were porters - one with a December 2004 PD and the other with a March 2006 PD. Both were at NSC.

[indiani]

Could be, or least lined up at the top of the pile to request one.

I thought it was worth noting, since there has been a lot of speculation about how quickly porting cases could be approved.

Let's see what happens over the next week or so - they could be outliers.

You can follow the PD split of approvals in the FACTS & DATA section for people who do upate thee profile. I saw you made a polite request for people to do so.

what percentage of total EB2I applicants are on trackitt, ( ? 10%) , as we can just use that to multiple the actual reported cases and get the approx number of approvals, moreover we might see a whole lot after work hours as many might be busy at work.

Is everyone who is getting approved getting email or text or both or just checking online?

[GCKnowHow]

So far 4 approvals in Trackitt. 3 are porting.

[Spectator]

what percentage of total EB2I applicants are on trackitt, ( ? 10%) , as we can just use that to multiple the actual reported cases and get the approx number of approvals, moreover we might see a whole lot after work hours as many might be busy at work.

Is everyone who is getting approved getting email or text or both or just checking online?It fluctuates.

Last year, which is probably similar to this year, it was approved EB2-I cases in the Tracker represented 7.5% of the actual number approved.

In FY2011 the % was 4.9%.
In FY2010 the % was 6.8%.

As I've said before, the % that are porting cases that already have an I-485 may also make a difference, since the EB3-I % is nearer 5% from memory.

In my own calculations, I am using a combination of % between 5% and 9% depending on the PD year of the approved case.

[indiani]

It fluctuates.

Last year, which is probably similar to this year, it was approved EB2-I cases in the Tracker represented 7.5% of the actual number approved.

In FY2011 the % was 4.9%.
In FY2010 the % was 6.8%.

As I've said before, the % that are porting cases that already have an I-485 may also make a difference, since the EB3-I % is nearer 5% from memory.

In my own calculations, I am using a combination of % between 5% and 9% depending on the PD year of the approved case.

assuming 7%, so far about 20 got approved on trackitt, so approx 300 total.
By the end of the day I hope it will be atleast 40 on trackitt ( as many might update in the evening after work), so it will translate to 550+, that should clear all cases by the end of the month.

[indiani]

So far 4 approvals in Trackitt. 3 are porting.

it way beyond that TSC+NSC close to 20

[GCKnowHow]

it way beyond that TSC+NSC close to 20

Where do you see this info? I see only 6 in the tracker.

[indiani]

Where do you see this info? I see only 6 in the tracker.

not even half are updating the tracker, they are just posting in about a dozen threads scattered through out.
my estimation last time is about 20, as I mentioned before many might not have even posted as they might be at work.
at the end on tonight if we see 40 that will be a good sign.
that means almost 500-800 might be approved today.

moreover even after adjudication there is a lagtime of hour or so before the online status/emails are sent out, thats why some might even see at 6:30 EST or later or early tomorrow am.

so far encouraging signs

[willywonka]

I feel so happy for all those approvals. Indiani, I am rooting for you. Can't wait to see good news from you...

[indiani]

I feel so happy for all those approvals. Indiani, I am rooting for you. Can't wait to see good news from you...

Thanks, I wouldnt worry too much for atleast 1 week as long as the approvals keep flowing, if sept bulletin shows huge jump with quite a bit of left over from before jan 2008, then that might lead to a scenario of once again quite few unlucky left overs ahve to wait another year.

Until the approval email, there isnt anything guaranteed.

my estimation was 20-40 approvals per day on trackitt and it is within that margin so far at the lower end, also I predicted random approvals which seems to be the case.

On trackitt folks have tendency to post approvals rather than update on tracker as they could feel the excitement with all the "congrats" posts and there are more threads than total approvals today, so its not easy to keep count.

[MATT2012]

Thanks, I wouldnt worry too much for atleast 1 week as long as the approvals keep flowing, if sept bulletin shows huge jump with quite a bit of left over from before jan 2008, then that might lead to a scenario of once again quite few unlucky left overs ahve to wait another year.

Until the approval email, there isnt anything guaranteed.

my estimation was 20-40 approvals per day on trackitt and it is within that margin so far at the lower end, also I predicted random approvals which seems to be the case.

On trackitt folks have tendency to post approvals rather than update on tracker as they could feel the excitement with all the "congrats" posts and there are more threads than total approvals today, so its not easy to keep count.

As you mentioned many are not updating trackitt, if I am not wrong approval numbers in trackitt is somewhere between 25-30. Not great , but good start.

[indiani]

As you mentioned many are not updating trackitt, if I am not wrong approval numbers in trackitt is somewhere between 25-30. Not great , but good start.

I will put it close to 30 as even the thread with the "scoreboard" is not counting dependents. even without dependents its 24 ( my own count).

if we assume 5% are reporting then its 600 total approvals, on the other hand if we are conservative and assume 10% are reporting then its 300 ( still not bad).

assuming Saturday approvals , almost all the pending inventory including inter filers should clear off by end of august.

already the attorneys are sending reminder emails to uscis and soon after 1st week, there will be bombardment of phone calls and some congressional queries

addendum: the emails seem to be coming even now and the "scoreboard" without dependents seems to be 24, so the actual number might be well above 600, usually the approvals on 2nd or 3rd day will be peak, so I guess tomorrow we might see almost twice the approvals of today IMO, i.e 50 excluding dependents

[MATT2012]

I will put it close to 30 as even the thread with the "scoreboard" is not counting dependents. even without dependents its 24 ( my own count).

if we assume 5% are reporting then its 600 total approvals, on the other hand if we are conservative and assume 10% are reporting then its 300 ( still not bad).

assuming Saturday approvals , almost all the pending inventory including inter filers should clear off by end of august.

already the attorneys are sending reminder emails to uscis and soon after 1st week, there will be bombardment of phone calls and some congressional queries

Trackitt conversion ratios are based on approvals updated in trackitt I-485 tracker, every year there are cases who don't enter details in trackitt. We need much more approvals as we are expecting total approvals between 10-13K. I hope by next week the approvals will be high.

[indiani]

actual cases updated on trackitt are only 14 without dependents, and if we assume it is 7% then that's a very low rate

[vizcard]

actual cases updated on trackitt are only 14 without dependents, and if we assume it is 7% then that's a very low rate

Thats about 400 "real cases". i expect it will pick up but we are looking at ~3500 approvals by next Friday.

[Spectator]

actual cases updated on trackitt are only 14 without dependents, and if we assume it is 7% then that's a very low rateIt's been my observation that the number of approvals for a given day in the Tracker will take at least a week to register proper numbers, so don't despair at the lower than expected number.

The excitement of the moment after such a long period of retrogression seems to have made people forget to update their status, but around 80% will do so eventually.

[longwait100]

As per the trackitt "scoreboard" thread, Tsc+Nsc approvals for today totals 25. Assuming a primary:dependant ratio of 1:1 on a conservative side (the realistic ratio may be 1:1.25-1.5), the total primary+dependant approvals on trackitt for today is 50.

Again assuming trackitt represents 10% of the actual approvals, we can say that approx 500 cases were approved on the first day which doesn't seem too bad. As viz pointed out, the approval rate should pick up in the next couple of days, so we can expect at least 5000 cases getting approved by mid August.

[indiani]

As per the trackitt "scoreboard" thread, Tsc+Nsc approvals for today totals 25. Assuming a primary:dependant ratio of 1:1 on a conservative side (the realistic ratio may be 1:1.25-1.5), the total primary+dependant approvals on trackitt for today is 50.

Again assuming trackitt represents 10% of the actual approvals, we can say that approx 500 cases were approved on the first day which doesn't seem too bad. As viz pointed out, the approval rate should pick up in the next couple of days, so we can expect at least 5000 cases getting approved by mid August.

my assumptions are very close to yours, its fair to say almost everyone believes few hundred to almost 1000 might have been approved today with median being about 400 IMO.

That is fairly good outcome and 1st day usually is not the highest number , it will usually peak on 3rd day but as its a Saturday;
from Monday onwards fairly quickly the pace should pick up. after about 10 days we will be counting people who didn't get GC

[indiani]

Trackitt conversion ratios are based on approvals updated in trackitt I-485 tracker, every year there are cases who don't enter details in trackitt. We need much more approvals as we are expecting total approvals between 10-13K. I hope by next week the approvals will be high.

based on your latest analysis on trackitt it appears that as many as 60 ( including dependents) might have been approved and if you consider this 10% then maybe 600 are approved and I have a feeling that both of us will get approval by Saturday :)

[MATT2012]

based on your latest analysis on trackitt it appears that as many as 60 ( including dependents) might have been approved and if you consider this 10% then maybe 600 are approved and I have a feeling that both of us will get approval by Saturday :)

I was just helping the OP, as he wanted to see PD of approved cases. I actually wanted to break up the data by porting cases to understand better. Based on PD of the cases, it is very close, 50:50 between interfiling and regular. By end of next week we may be able to make some reasonable projections . I do like your feeling about our approvals, Amen to that :)

[indiani]

called L2 and she said its in " review" / "processing" and she can't say when decision can be made.

Its one of the most primitive and inefficient system and I am starting to get bit anxious already even though we are still in the "2nd over" ( cricket jargon).

I thought the pace will really pick up today but it appears that it might be a bit slower than yesterday and the system is anything but transparent.

Trackitt posts are the only info we can get about the approval rate as even the tracker isn't being updated right away by most.

I am checking my email and online status almost every few minutes ( visceral reaction)

[longwait100]

Indiani, I hear you buddy, today seems to be a little slow so far based on the trackitt approvals......getting a little anxious too but I guess we don't have any other option other than just wait, wait and wait for our turn.

hope we get to see the light soon!

[vizcard]

called L2 and she said its in " review" / "processing" and she can't say when decision can be made.

Its one of the most primitive and inefficient system and I am starting to get bit anxious already even though we are still in the "2nd over" ( cricket jargon).

I thought the pace will really pick up today but it appears that it might be a bit slower than yesterday and the system is anything but transparent.

Trackitt posts are the only info we can get about the approval rate as even the tracker isn't being updated right away by most.

I am checking my email and online status almost every few minutes ( visceral reaction)

set up the text messaging thing... its the best...unless ofcourse you have your email pushed to your phone.

[snrusa]

EB2 - PD 15NOV2007, still in initial review, getting nervous. I talked to L2 officer and she said its been pre-adj and someone worked on the case yesterday ... What that means? if someone worked means, is there any other "line of people" that needs to work on single case ?
This wait is killing me, do not want to miss this time ...

[indiani]

set up the text messaging thing... its the best...unless ofcourse you have your email pushed to your phone.

I have txt/email alerts set and also have email notification in iphone but when i got RFE, just online status changed , no email or txt.

[longwait100]

Gurus pls help me understand this....if most of the cases upto Jan 1st 2008 are pre-adjudicated and are also accounted for in the demand data, why is the speed of 485 approvals so anemic?

I understand that 485 approval is not done merely by the push of a button, but shouldn't take more than a few minutes to approve a per-adj case. what am I missing here?

[Spectator]

Gurus pls help me understand this....if most of the cases upto Jan 1st 2008 are pre-adjudicated and are also accounted for in the demand data, why is the speed of 485 approvals so anemic?

I understand that 485 approval is not done merely by the push of a button, but shouldn't take more than a few minutes to approve a per-adj case. what am I missing here?longwait,

Considering everything, I don't think the pace of approvals is particularly slow. Judge it in a week when the early dates start to become more representative.

I wouldn't agree that all cases are accounted for in the DD - a significant number of porting applications are not IMO.

[bvsamrat]

Picking Low hanging fruits: Demand existing in 2005 and untouched till todate would have lot of Qs to be attended as to a DD as fresh as a classic ported case with fresh I-140 as late as Jan/Feb 2013 which will get fast approval

As SPEC mentioned earlier - it is a classic example of 'Picking Low hanging fruits/


Gurus pls help me understand this....if most of the cases upto Jan 1st 2008 are pre-adjudicated and are also accounted for in the demand data, why is the speed of 485 approvals so anemic?

I understand that 485 approval is not done merely by the push of a button, but shouldn't take more than a few minutes to approve a per-adj case. what am I missing here?

[longwait100]

thanks for the response Spec, I was actually pointing towards the direct EB2I cases prior to Jan 1st 2008 that are already pre-adjudicated and accounted for in the DD. I was expecting the rate of approval to pick up starting today since we got about 8000 direct EB2I cases prior to Jan 1st 2008 all set for approval just needing a visa number to push the approval button.

Anyways as you suggested, let's wait and watch the space!

[indiani]

longwait,

Considering everything, I don't think the pace of approvals is particularly slow. Judge it in a week when the early dates start to become more representative.

I wouldn't agree that all cases are accounted for in the DD - a significant number of porting applications are not IMO.

what percentage of total trackitt cases are approved, I could see the score card where mostly primary approvals are there and there are about 44 approvals now., is there anyway to calculate what is the number of total EB2I cases prior to Jan 2008 on trackitt?
then we can see what percentage of total cases are approved.

[Spectator]

thanks for the response Spec, I was actually pointing towards the direct EB2I cases prior to Jan 1st 2008 that are already pre-adjudicated and accounted for in the DD. I was expecting the rate of approval to pick up starting today since we got about 8000 direct EB2I cases prior to Jan 1st 2008 all set for approval just needing a visa number to push the approval button.

Anyways as you suggested, let's wait and watch the space!The only extra step for the cases not in the DD that already have a pre-adjudicated I-485 under EB3 is to request the visa under EB2. That might be 2 screens and less than a minute. I don't think cases showing in the DD as EB2 have any particular advantage over that type of case.

If there is no pre-existing I-485 then the IOs won't be seeing them for some time yet.

PS:- Anyone else having trouble accessing the forum today? There's large period where the site times out for me.

[kumar19]

most of them if not all in trackitt EB2 approvals in last 2 days has "received email from attorney" and priority dates in 2013. I signed up for email notification for any status change. Is there a chance my attorney gets status change notification without me getting SMS/email/online status change?

[vizcard]

most of them if not all in trackitt EB2 approvals in last 2 days has "received email from attorney" and priority dates in 2013. I signed up for email notification for any status change. Is there a chance my attorney gets status change notification without me getting SMS/email/online status change?

no. if the change is made online, you will also get it.

[longwait100]

Speed of approvals from NSC seems to be reasonable and going along at a steady pace while TSC seems to be a little sluggish...anyone knows if TSC works on Saturdays?....if so, let's hope they do a better job tomorrow otherwise on the hook until Monday, next week.

[Eb2_Dec07]

I just called uscis and spoke with L2.

He said my case is pending since 2012 when i last responded to rfe. I then asked if my case is pre adjudicated and he still said it is pending since 2012. Didnt say it has been preadjudicated. He said he will raise a request to get exact status

Im now concerned if it is pending is it not touched yet for preadjudication. I hope i will get approval in this window.

[indiani]

I just called uscis and spoke with L2.

He said my case is pending since 2012 when i last responded to rfe. I then asked if my case is pre adjudicated and he still said it is pending since 2012. Didnt say it has been preadjudicated. He said he will raise a request to get exact status

Im now concerned if it is pending is it not touched yet for preadjudication. I hope i will get approval in this window.

The rate of approvals are about the same as yesterday with NSC performing better and TSC slightly worse,

I suspect there could be some approval emails/txts tomorrow also, not as many as weekday numbers.

[indiani]

approx. . 2000 pending cases ( EB2I who are current) on trackitt, of which 50 got approved
that's about 2.5%, ( very rough estimate and I welcome any other alternate explanations)

I think everyone who is current won't be approved in august, some might get in September and few might not get this fiscal year ( the percentage of the few is unknown , hopefully very small )

Not even a single approval today so far :(

[MATT2012]

approx. . 2000 pending cases ( EB2I who are current) on trackitt, of which 50 got approved
that's about 2.5%, ( very rough estimate and I welcome any other alternate explanations)

I think everyone who is current won't be approved in august, some might get in September and few might not get this fiscal year ( the percentage of the few is unknown , hopefully very small )

Not even a single approval today so far :(

Give it a week, many individuals may not have visited trackitt after the last fiasco. Some individuals wait until receiving physical GC to update trackitt. I do think that next two weeks are crucial, I hope VB gets released by next Friday and for sure we will get the required direction.

[indiani]

eventually some approvals today even though slower than a weekday, I think the actual trackitt approvals might be slightly higher than the updated ones and moreover the scoreboard did not add all dependents, so I am guessing the actual total approvals might have been somewhere like 5% of total DD so far.

[Spectator]

I think everyone who is current won't be approved in august, some might get in September and few might not get this fiscal year ( the percentage of the few is unknown , hopefully very small )That's probably a fair point.

The number becoming Current in September is likely to be far lower than the number that became Current in August.

USCIS have up to 2 months to approve the total.

Unlike previous years, there is some additional demand for adjudication time from most of EB3, who are playing catch up to use their visa allocation after the large forward movement and stalling of approvals earlier in the year.

[indiani]

one of my friends who is ROW got GC with the online status till in acceptance.

same thing happened to me regarding h-1, even though the approval was sent to attorney, the online status was still in acceptance, I don't know how common it is for GC, I haven't heard of anyone mentioning anywhere for GC apart from one case I know so I think it might be like less than 1%.

I doubt the USCUS seriously considers giving final decision on every case that is current this fiscal year, as no one will see their own lives/ careers affected in anyway at uscis. ( I doubt uscis staff or management knows that people actually are as anxious as many of us are about this stuff)
This reminds me of govt. hospital in india where no one is accountable for their actions
when there are repurcussions for " loss to others based on our actions" then the quality will improve dramatically. In this case uscis is more or less is like govt. hospital in india so almost nothing will surprise me in the way they do things.

before people start ganging up on me about this comparision, that's based on my life experience and those are my familiar exposures and obviously cannot compare in literal sense but just wanted to make a point.

[longwait100]

Looking at the trackitt scorecard, seems like Saturday was the best day so far for approvals @ TSC.

Let's hope we get to see an increasing trend of approvals for this week so the probability of getting picked and approved goes up for everyone waiting.

[indiani]

Looking at the trackitt scorecard, seems like Saturday was the best day so far for approvals @ TSC.

Let's hope we get to see an increasing trend of approvals for this week so the probability of getting picked and approved goes up for everyone waiting.

from Monday it is supposed to increase even more.

I would like to see upto 50 approvals a day on trackitt, now its about 25 ( average), good news is TSC is picking up pace.

[Spectator]

I thought it might be useful for people to see the highest number of EB2-I Trackitt approvals for a single month from FY2010 - FY2012.

The numbers are cases eventually updated in the I-485 Tracker over time (not only on the day of approval) for Primary applicants.

FY2012

February - 433 -- c. 5.8k
March ---- 503 -- c. 6.8k

FY2011

June ----- 280 -- c. 5.7k
July ----- 376 -- c. 7.7k

FY2010

July ----- 432 -- c. 6.3k
August --- 402 -- c. 5.9k

% change, so the Trackitt number for the same actual number can vary from year to year.

[indiani]

I thought it might be useful for people to see the highest number of EB2-I Trackitt approvals for a single month from FY2010 - FY2012.

The numbers are cases eventually updated in the I-485 Tracker over time (not only on the day of approval) for Primary applicants.

FY2012

February - 433 -- c. 5.8k
March ---- 503 -- c. 6.8k

FY2011

June ----- 280 -- c. 5.7k
July ----- 376 -- c. 7.7k

FY2010

July ----- 432 -- c. 6.3k
August --- 402 -- c. 5.9k

% change, so the Trackitt number for the same actual number can vary from year to year.

That's very useful information , so far on scoreboard there are about 67 approvals excluding dependents i.e. 22 per day, if we multiply by 25 days ( for august) its 550 per month for primary applicants, which is close to march of last year when 6800 were approved.

But I suspect because of more awareness more and more people are on trackitt so in reality that might turn out to be a slightly different total approvals perhaps on the lower side.

Unless we see an increase in the primary approvals twice of what it is now, significant portion will be left over for September.

In the absence of increase in the rate of approvals and if there is significant movement of COD in September bulletin, then several 2007 and earlier applicants might be left out for another year ( worst case scenario)

Unlike 2012 there are pre-adjudicated cases which should take far less time to approve but looking at the math I did , surprisingly the pace is not significantly more than last year march atleast so far.

[Eb2_Dec07]

one of my friends who is ROW got GC with the online status till in acceptance.

same thing happened to me regarding h-1, even though the approval was sent to attorney, the online status was still in acceptance, I don't know how common it is for GC, I haven't heard of anyone mentioning anywhere for GC apart from one case I know so I think it might be like less than 1%.

I doubt the USCUS seriously considers giving final decision on every case that is current this fiscal year, as no one will see their own lives/ careers affected in anyway at uscis. ( I doubt uscis staff or management knows that people actually are as anxious as many of us are about this stuff)
This reminds me of govt. hospital in india where no one is accountable for their actions
when there are repurcussions for " loss to others based on our actions" then the quality will improve dramatically. In this case uscis is more or less is like govt. hospital in india so almost nothing will surprise me in the way they do things.

before people start ganging up on me about this comparision, that's based on my life experience and those are my familiar exposures and obviously cannot compare in literal sense but just wanted to make a point.

I totally get your point. My last conversation with the L2 didn't inspire much hope . do you think going through congressman helps if so when is right time. L2 mentioned he raised a service request to get status on my case, he said I should hear from them on SR in 2 weeks, if not asked me to call. Does it help bring the case to spotlight for taking up. This month will be a very long month for those awaiting approvals

[indiani]

I totally get your point. My last conversation with the L2 didn't inspire much hope . do you think going through congressman helps if so when is right time. L2 mentioned he raised a service request to get status on my case, he said I should hear from them on SR in 2 weeks, if not asked me to call. Does it help bring the case to spotlight for taking up. This month will be a very long month for those awaiting approvals

I also thought about the congressman approach but seeing at the rate of approvals right now its a difficult call, if the pace increases especially as we have seen TSC on Saturday , then almost all applicants should be cleared by September, may be like 5% to 10% might not get it ( either b'cos of some problem with application or just bad luck).

By the end of this week, two major factors will help us decide, significant COD movement i.e. 6 months and same rate of approvals will keep 2007 filers in a risky situation ( history will repeat)

I will see next 2-3 days and then decide as we still have more than a month left.

according to Q dates might not retrogress in October but I think its highly unlikely that dates will stay the same in October.

[indiani]

The title of "yoda" makes me laugh everytime I log in, Q has good sense of humor, apart from information and excellent data from spec, I enjoy blogging on this forum , its kind of a hobby now :)

[Eb2_Dec07]

I also thought about the congressman approach but seeing at the rate of approvals right now its a difficult call, if the pace increases especially as we have seen TSC on Saturday , then almost all applicants should be cleared by September, may be like 5% to 10% might not get it ( either b'cos of some problem with application or just bad luck).

By the end of this week, two major factors will help us decide, significant COD movement i.e. 6 months and same rate of approvals will keep 2007 filers in a risky situation ( history will repeat)

I will see next 2-3 days and then decide as we still have more than a month left.

according to Q dates might not retrogress in October but I think its highly unlikely that dates will stay the same in October.

I'm thinking of raising a request via congressman's office after 3rd week. As you mentioned once the dates are to move much further next VB , the randomness of approvals could just make it a lucky draw

[MATT2012]

I did a break up between interfile cases Vs Direct from trackitt thread. I consider any interfiles before June 2012 as Direct, as they are already in demand.
---------Interfile----Direct-----Total
Texas------6-----------28--------34
Nebraska--17----------15--------32
Total-------23---------43--------66

Texas seems to be far behind in interfile cases. The ratio at Nebraska between interfiles and direct seems to be very high, the overall ratio between Interfiles to Direct is as expected, but little concerning as Texas is lagging far behind in approving interfile cases. I hope by end of next week, we should get some reasonable ratios.

[indiani]

I did a break up between interfile cases Vs Direct from trackitt thread. I consider any interfiles before June 2012 as Direct, as they are already in demand.
---------Interfile----Direct-----Total
Texas------6-----------28--------34
Nebraska--17----------15--------32
Total-------23---------43--------66

Texas seems to be far behind in interfile cases. The ratio at Nebraska between interfiles and direct seems to be very high, the overall ratio between Interfiles to Direct is as expected, but little concerning as Texas is lagging far behind in approving interfile cases. I hope by end of next week, we should get some reasonable ratios.

I think its a matter of chance as the sample is too small, either direct or interfile as soon as they find a case ready to be approved they are requesting a visa.

The rate of approvals still bother me , as in spite of adding couple of "friends" and dependents still the count is 71 ( latest one by matt).

assuming a minimum COD movement of 3K additional for sept, they have to process 15K applications in 1.5 months and the rate they are going right now they might just finish 12K or so, if 6K plus are added in sept, then almost couple to several thousands might be left over.

[vizcard]

I think its a matter of chance as the sample is too small, either direct or interfile as soon as they find a case ready to be approved they are requesting a visa.

The rate of approvals still bother me , as in spite of adding couple of "friends" and dependents still the count is 71 ( latest one by matt).

assuming a minimum COD movement of 3K additional for sept, they have to process 15K applications in 1.5 months and the rate they are going right now they might just finish 12K or so, if 6K plus are added in sept, then almost couple to several thousands might be left over.

I doubt they will waste visas... Not with so much demand pending. Worst case - dates will move further than needed and approvals will be out of turn. I certainly hope this is not the case.

[Stemcell]

I doubt they will waste visas... Not with so much demand pending. Worst case - dates will move further than needed and approvals will be out of turn. I certainly hope this is not the case.

I concur that they will not waste visas and in that process random approvals are more likely.
Will wait another week before I call our representative...I hate to do that but having missed last year, I hate to be left out this time.....

[indiani]

I concur that they will not waste visas and in that process random approvals are more likely.
Will wait another week before I call our representative...I hate to do that but having missed last year, I hate to be left out this time.....

To contact congressman's office, what kind of information is needed to provide,
is email enough or do they need 485 receipt notice etc., and what info is needed to be provided in the email

I am not planning to send anything right away but will wait for another 1-2 weeks and based on the trend and COD of sept, I will decide.

[Stemcell]

To contact congressman's office, what kind of information is needed to provide,
is email enough or do they need 485 receipt notice etc., and what info is needed to be provided in the email

I am not planning to send anything right away but will wait for another 1-2 weeks and based on the trend and COD of sept, I will decide.


I have not contacted my local congressman's office yet.
You can find out who your representative is with the link below...
http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/

I plan to send an email to them initially and also call their local office and see what the protocol is, that is if I do not hear anything by 8/8/13.
Last of all I want to hear is we are current and they are 'out' of visas for this year.

[Eb2_Dec07]

To contact congressman's office, what kind of information is needed to provide,
is email enough or do they need 485 receipt notice etc., and what info is needed to be provided in the email

I am not planning to send anything right away but will wait for another 1-2 weeks and based on the trend and COD of sept, I will decide.

Once you contact their office , they'll tell you the procedure and will ask you to submit documents . Believe it is all receipts , EAD copies etc .

I plan to wait till the VB comes out and reach out to their office . But before you do reach out , I also suggest raise an SR with L2, since the cases are pending from 2012 , and now that we much outside the processing times and PD being current they should really get back with some answer. I raised SR last week and expecting to hear by 15th , if I dont I will go through congressman's office . If the response from them is their boilerplate 60 days waiting BS, I still plan to go through congressman .

[Stemcell]

Once you contact their office , they'll tell you the procedure and will ask you to submit documents . Believe it is all receipts , EAD copies etc .

I plan to wait till the VB comes out and reach out to their office . But before you do reach out , I also suggest raise an SR with L2, since the cases are pending from 2012 , and now that we much outside the processing times and PD being current they should really get back with some answer. I raised SR last week and expecting to hear by 15th , if I dont I will go through congressman's office . If the response from them is their boilerplate 60 days waiting BS, I still plan to go through congressman .


Thats pretty much what I had in mind.
I did not raise a SR yet, given that my case status shows RFE response review....and asking me to wait for 60 days for response. But nonetheless I am going to call them now...

[dec2007]

Got text saying below. Still waiting for wife's approval. my pd is dec 31, 2007. Thank you for all the support, it was a wait of 6 yrs...Good wishes to everyone. thank you q and others...


On August 5, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.

This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

[dec2007]

Got text saying below. Still waiting for wife's approval. my pd is dec 31, 2007. Thank you for all the support, it was a wait of 6 yrs...Good wishes to everyone. thank you q and others...


On August 5, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.

This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

Spouse case also approved few minutes ago.

[Stemcell]

Congrats and enjoy :D

[Eb2_Dec07]

Got text saying below. Still waiting for wife's approval. my pd is dec 31, 2007. Thank you for all the support, it was a wait of 6 yrs...Good wishes to everyone. thank you q and others...


On August 5, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.

This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

Congratulations my friend ! very happy for you .

Enjoy your freedom . We all are gr8ful for this opportunity to share on this wonderful forum.

[ragx08]

Spouse case also approved few minutes ago.

Congratulations!!! You are the first on this forum to share the good news this season :-)!

[druvraj]

Spouse case also approved few minutes ago.

Congratulations dec2007. Enjoy the freedom.

I believe that the rate will pick up this week but the pace will reach its peak only after the Sept bulletin is released. The next bulletin will not be release before Friday or next Monday.

[wolverine82]

Got text saying below. Still waiting for wife's approval. my pd is dec 31, 2007. Thank you for all the support, it was a wait of 6 yrs...Good wishes to everyone. thank you q and others...


On August 5, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.

This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.



Congrats dec2007...enjoy the green in hand :)

[longwait100]

Looks like TSC officers are cooling off their heels today after the hard work they did on Saturday last week.

I guess TSC folks will have to wait until tomorrow morning to see any possible action.

[GCKnowHow]

Spouse case also approved few minutes ago.

You got your freedom, congrats!!! party time.

[GCKnowHow]

Looks like TSC officers are cooling off their heels today after the hard work they did on Saturday last week.

I guess TSC folks will have to wait until tomorrow morning to see any possible action.

I didn't know they worked on saturday, until I saw all the messages about approval.

[qesehmk]

Congrats dec2007! That was one long wait!!
Enjoy your freedom and wish you really well !!


Got text saying below. Still waiting for wife's approval. my pd is dec 31, 2007. Thank you for all the support, it was a wait of 6 yrs...Good wishes to everyone. thank you q and others...


On August 5, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.

This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

[Spectator]

dec2007,

Many congratulations from me as well!!

[Kanmani]

dec2007, Congratulations!

[dec2007]

Thank you all for the wishes...Good luck to everyone..

[indiani]

Thank you all for the wishes...Good luck to everyone..

Congrats!.. and stop by the forum once in a while

[indiani]

No approvals from TSC even though NSC is picking up the pace, strange things always appear to happen at CIS as its the most "opaque" system which is supposed to be other way around.

[IJune05]

dec2007. Congratulations.

[SmileBaba]

Thank you all for the wishes...Good luck to everyone..

Congratulations dude! I also have Dec. 2007 PD. Keeping fingers crossed. :)

[MATT2012]

Dec2007,

Congrats, Isn't this our first EB2I approval this season here in Q's!! I remember one of your earlier posts " Finally... Can anyone beat my PD ?:"

Cheers!!

Matt

[indiani]

I see that even now there are few RFE's and if there is an RFE after august then the chances of getting GC will be very slim.

Moreover I am losing confidence that CIS is going to process almost all the cases who are current , the pace at which they are doing, they might finish at the most 10 to 12K by September ( as spec mentioned before, they won't give any approvals towards last part of September ).

TSC had almost negligible approvals today, have no clue why.

[longwait100]

If i remember it correctly, people were getting 485 approvals late in the evening and also early morning when the dates were current for EB2I the last time.

I wonder why we are we not seeing the same thing happen this time when the dates current again?

[dec2007]

Dec2007,

Congrats, Isn't this our first EB2I approval this season here in Q's!! I remember one of your earlier posts " Finally... Can anyone beat my PD ?:"

Cheers!!

Matt

MATT, thanks for wishes.

Yes, Dec31, 07

[druvraj]

I see that even now there are few RFE's and if there is an RFE after august then the chances of getting GC will be very slim.

Moreover I am losing confidence that CIS is going to process almost all the cases who are current , the pace at which they are doing, they might finish at the most 10 to 12K by September ( as spec mentioned before, they won't give any approvals towards last part of September ).

TSC had almost negligible approvals today, have no clue why.

Approvals from TSC will start coming after September bulletin is released as almost all RFE were issued to TSC applicants rights!. Let us see if my prediction is correct.
Till then relax.

[primus]

Gurus, I have sent my I-485 application on Aug 1st to Phoenix lockbox. My priority date is Sept 1st 2006 in EB2. I went to India and lived there for 5 years, so I missed 2010 I-485 filing :(

I have these three questions:

1) If date may retrogress, then when the earliest that can happen? As the financial year is ending in Sept. 2013. So that means date can only retrogress after Sept. 30th?

2) Suppose date retrogress on Oct. 1st 2013 and by that time, if my EAD has not come, then I will have to wait till my priority date becomes current even for EAD? I am more worried about EAD, because my wife can start work after that. If i leave my sponsoring company 180 days before pending my i-485, will nullify my wife's EAD?

3) Usually how many days (business/calendar?), does EAD takes to come? Does finger printing request comes before EAD?

3) My priority date is Sept 1st 2006. Any guesstimate, how many years date may get retrogressed?

No one knows, how USCIS process applications, based on priority date or application receiving date or on their mood ?

Thank you in advance.

[helooo]

Any Comments.User posted the following information on trackitt.User has PD of June30,2008.I guess the dates will move to July otherwise why would they approve him?

http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1254451731/sept-2013-visa-bulletin-prediction-eb2i/page/25

Posted by N170091 (29) 10 hours 19 minutes ago
I'm convinced/relaxed now. Today afternoon I received similar message I received earlier (Card Production).
Just now received below message. Now it says 60 days

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS


Your Case Status: Decision


On August 5, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.

[TeddyKoochu]

dec2007 Congratulations on your approval, enjoy green life. Good luck to everyone who is current.

[natvyas]

I was going through Trackitt and noticed that out of the 67 approvals, 33 of them are 2006 and prior (most of them from NSC). This tells me that NSC is adjudicating on PD dates which in turn implies that porting cases are getting cleared first.

This will allow the CO to make a very educative decision in the coming days before the VB is released.

Comments???

Regards
Nat

[RRRRRR]

Gurus, I have sent my I-485 application on Aug 1st to Phoenix lockbox. My priority date is Sept 1st 2006 in EB2. I went to India and lived there for 5 years, so I missed 2010 I-485 filing :(

I have these three questions:

1) If date may retrogress, then when the earliest that can happen? As the financial year is ending in Sept. 2013. So that means date can only retrogress after Sept. 30th?

2) Suppose date retrogress on Oct. 1st 2013 and by that time, if my EAD has not come, then I will have to wait till my priority date becomes current even for EAD? I am more worried about EAD, because my wife can start work after that. If i leave my sponsoring company 180 days before pending my i-485, will nullify my wife's EAD?

3) Usually how many days (business/calendar?), does EAD takes to come? Does finger printing request comes before EAD?

3) My priority date is Sept 1st 2006. Any guesstimate, how many years date may get retrogressed?

No one knows, how USCIS process applications, based on priority date or application receiving date or on their mood ?

Thank you in advance.

Hi,

First of all welcome back and wish you good luck. Here is the response based on my learning and others may correct it.

1) Dates may retrogress starting Sept 1st also and we will have a better idea by end of this week as the new bulletin is expected by that time.

2) you will get your EAD irrespective of the your PD is current or not. To be clear if for example dates retrogress starting Sept 1st then also you will get your EAD & AP.

3) normally it takes 45 calendar days to get your EAD and AP or max 2 months. so ideally you shall have it by end of September.

4) If you are lucky you may get your GC by end of September but definitely sometime in mid of 2014.

Hope this helps.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Is there any negative impact if we went through the congressman route at this point on pending 485 case. My congressman's office is ready to help right away as I contacted them yesterday to check.

[longwait100]

Not sure whats wrong with TSC, second straight day of almost no approvals, very disappointing!

[primus]

Thanks R6 for the reply. Any answer of


If I leave my sponsoring company or company itself lay me off within 180 days before pending my i-485, will nullify my wife's EAD?

[kumar19]

Not sure whats wrong with TSC, second straight day of almost no approvals, very disappointing!

there is some moment approvals from Nebraska in trackitt. None from Texas. I am feeling like going down further by every minute ..its just horrible to picture myself missing the boat one more time with PD 2007

[mannyt]

I think TSC/NSC are concentrating their efforts in counting applicants to build up demand data rather then focus on sending out approvals ?

[qesehmk]

Kumar - if your case is EB2I 2007 with no quirks and a normal employer - then this is your year. I have no doubt about it.

Good luck!
there is some moment approvals from Nebraska in trackitt. None from Texas. I am feeling like going down further by every minute ..its just horrible to picture myself missing the boat one more time with PD 2007

[kumar19]

Kumar - if your case is EB2I 2007 with no quirks and a normal employer - then this is your year. I have no doubt about it.

Good luck!

yes, my PD is 07/31/2007 EB2I. Thank you, Your words definitely gave me some much needed boost. keeping my fingers crossed for all EB2I 2007 folks in waiting.

[qesehmk]

yes, my PD is 07/31/2007 EB2I. Thank you, Your words definitely gave me some much needed boost. keeping my fingers crossed for all EB2I 2007 folks in waiting.

Jul 2007 should've been approved long back. You really need to take help from your congressman / senator.

p.s. - I am sorry. Didn't mean to scare you. Just saying that it would only help your case. Can't hurt.

[vizcard]

Everyone needs to calm down about rate of approvals, service centers, etc. it's the 6th of August. There's almost 2 months left to get approved. Have faith in the macro calculations that everyone has relied on up to this point.

Remember this - your case is unique. The outcome of some other case does not affect the outcome of your case - at least not this early in the period.

[Spectator]

Everyone needs to calm down about rate of approvals, service centers, etc. it's the 6th of August. There's almost 2 months left to get approved. Have faith in the macro calculations that everyone has relied on up to this point.

Remember this - your case is unique. The outcome of some other case does not affect the outcome of your case - at least not this early in the period.Vizcard,

Wise words.

As many as 12k EB2-I cases may have become Current in August.

It is physically impossible to approve that number in a few days. The lack of an approval at this stage is nothing in particular to worry about.

At this stage, even slower TSC approvals should not be a concern, even if it is disappointing. They may have a different strategy and be the tortoise that overtakes the hare.

Good luck to everybody Current in August and hoping to be in September.

[Kanmani]

Vizcard,

At this stage, even slower TSC approvals should not be a concern, even if it is disappointing. They may have a different strategy and be the tortoise that overtakes the hare. :)



What is your opinion on that June 2008 card production claim - Trackitt - Genuine post upon USCIS's mistake or OP's efforts to attract attention ?

[Spectator]

What is your opinion on that June 2008 card production claim - Trackitt - Genuine post upon USCIS's mistake or OP's efforts to attract attention ?Kanmani,

As a single data point, it is as likely to be a USCIS error as a portent of movement to come. It has certainly happened before.

I don't get the sense that the person is lying in any way. I wouldn't want to be in their situation. In another recent case, the person returned the GC that was approved in error.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

As a single data point, it is as likely to be a USCIS error as a portent of movement to come. It has certainly happened before.

I don't get the sense that the person is lying in any way. I wouldn't want to be in their situation. In another recent case, the person returned the GC that was approved in error.

Spec,

I don't know the same case you are referring to, I saw one , the person returned his GC on his attorney's advice later when he tried to extend his EAD he was informed that he has no pending I-485 to support his EAD extension. Lesson learnt - Returning the GC could make the situation worse!

My Question is that why in the heaven do I bother whether the PD is current or not at the time of my approval ? I have an approved Immigrant Visa, requested USCIS to grant me PR- card, I am granted !

Am I wrong?

[longwait100]

Vizcard,

Wise words.

As many as 12k EB2-I cases may have become Current in August.

It is physically impossible to approve that number in a few days. The lack of an approval at this stage is nothing in particular to worry about.

At this stage, even slower TSC approvals should not be a concern, even if it is disappointing. They may have a different strategy and be the tortoise that overtakes the hare.

Good luck to everybody Current in August and hoping to be in September.


Viz, Spec and other Gurus, thanks for the encouraging words....I understand its far too early to start panicking, but I was just expressing my frustration looking at the steady progress @ NSC versus baby stepping close to a stall @TSC looking at the trackitt approvals....Let's hope TSC takes some tips from NSC and improves its pace over the next few days!...we can only hope, right?

[natvyas]

Maybe I'm jumping to conclusions here but rate of processing at TSC tells me that dates are going to move Apr/May 08 easily. The rationale behind is that owing to RFE's issued the adjudicators dont know if its a valid case until they review the documents. Hence by the time the September bulletin comes out the RFE cases might not be reviewed. So the in order to avoid wastage the CO might move the dates out further than he has numbers for. This means that people might get left behind again.

[rferni]

Spec,

I don't know the same case you are referring to, I saw one , the person returned his GC on his attorney's advice later when he tried to extend his EAD he was informed that he has no pending I-485 to support his EAD extension. Lesson learnt - Returning the GC could make the situation worse!

My Question is that why in the heaven do I bother whether the PD is current or not at the time of my approval ? I have an approved Immigrant Visa, requested USCIS to grant me PR- card, I am granted !

Am I wrong?

Seems like a classic case where too much knowledge can be dangerous! There's a lot of us that try and educate ourselves about priority dates, movement patterns and the like - when when vast majority dont care. They are told by their employers that they will be sponsored for permanent residence, provide what the lawyers ask for and - one day - receive their green cards in the mail. In truth, they are oblivious to PERMs and I-140s and 485s and priority dates and cutoff dates! If one of them got their visas in error (when their date was not current) they would not know and probably would never find out; they use it and enjoy it (and if/when someone asks, they honestly wont know) - whereas someone knowledgeable in the process works themselves to paranoia and returns their GC... the irony!

[wolverine82]

The Person with PD June 2008 on trackitt just got a tracking # for USPS mail for delivery on Aug 8th.

I feel bad for him for no fault of his he has to undergo so much heartburn.He doesn't know if he needs to feel happy or sad due to this whole approval process when dates are not current..

[vizcard]

The Person with PD June 2008 on trackitt just got a tracking # for USPS mail for delivery on Aug 8th.

I feel bad for him for no fault of his he has to undergo so much heartburn.He doesn't know if he needs to feel happy or sad due to this whole approval process when dates are not current..

Are we sure this is a GC and not an EAD card? I apologize if this is a dumb question but I didn't actually go to trackit

If it were me, I'd be happy and end it right there. If anything, USCIS screwed up. He/she shouldn't have to pay for it. There's no way they will ask him to return it

[longwait100]

Understand that USCIS has upto 60 days to review and adjudicate the RFE response cases, so would it be fair to say that a bulk of the mass RFE applications @ TSC should be getting adjudicated in the second of half of August? (since most of the TSC folks responded to their June 14th RFEs between mid to late June time frame and will be reaching the end of the 60 day window starting August 15th onwards)

So the hope is that TSC is currently busy working on these RFE response cases and hence less approvals at the moment but as we pass the Aug 15th mark, we should start to see them churning out more approvals (if not mass approvals)?....what do others think?

[wolverine82]

yeah vizcard that is now the million $ question..is it GC or EAD and i think even he is panicking so we need to wait till 8th Aug when he updates everyone again.



Are we sure this is a GC and not an EAD card? I apologize if this is a dumb question but I didn't actually go to trackit

If it were me, I'd be happy and end it right there. If anything, USCIS screwed up. He/she shouldn't have to pay for it. There's no way they will ask him to return it

[natvyas]

Maybe I'm jumping to a conclusion here but rate of processing at TSC tells me that dates are going to move Apr/May 08 easily. The rationale behind is that owing to RFE's issued the adjudicators dont know if its a valid case until they review the documents. Hence by the time the September bulletin comes out the RFE cases might not be reviewed. So the in order to avoid wastage the CO might move the dates out further than he has numbers for. This means that people might get left behind again.

[Spectator]

The difference in the number of visas required between a Cut Off Date of say 01APR08 and the 01JUL08 required to cover the reported June 30, 2008 PD approval is about 4.5k.

It's possible if EB1 come in quite low and EB2-WW stall, but 4.5k as a % of expected numbers is quite a high %.

[wolverine82]

strange are the ways of uscis...just like any govt. org. no logic for anything they do :)

[RRRRRR]

Thanks R6 for the reply. Any answer of

She will become out of status once they reject your I485 application and rejecting your I485 application may take some time. If it ever happens that you have to leave your employer before 180 days than make sure that your wife should be on H4 while you are on H1, i guess this will be the safest approach. This is my understanding of the law.

You might keep her on EAD unless they reject your AOS and once they do then you have to make sure you have the resources to get her on H4 as soon as possible..I am not sure if this is something which is possible or advisable.

[vizcard]

The difference in the number of visas required between a Cut Off Date of say 01APR08 and the 01JUL08 required to cover the reported June 30, 2008 PD approval is about 4.5k.

It's possible if EB1 come in quite low and EB2-WW stall, but 4.5k as a % of expected numbers is quite a high %.

Again that's assuming all prior backlog is cleared. If we go at a 80% approval rating of backlog (totally made up), you need 3.6k.

[Spectator]

Again that's assuming all prior backlog is cleared. If we go at a 80% approval rating of backlog (totally made up), you need 3.6k.It's an extra 4.5k regardless of how many up to April 1 are approved. It is the difference between the two dates, not the total to reach the date.

I agree you could deduct a proportion that 4.5k would not get approved.

Even 3.6k is a significant number and %.

[Spectator]

A little summary of where the August approvals are currently (which will immediately out of date). It's, as usual, based on primary applicants who have updated the Trackitt I-485 tracker with the approval.

Total to date - 87

Aug 1 -- 17
Aug 2 -- 21
Aug 3 -- 10
Aug 4 --- 0
Aug 5 -- 22
Aug 6 -- 17

Total -- 87

Service Center

Nebraska -- 55 -- 63.22%
Texas ----- 31 -- 35.63%
California - 1 --- 1.15%
Vermont ---- 0 --- 0.00%

Total ----- 87 - 100.00%

Priority Date

PD ---- EB2 -- EB3 -- Total
2003 ---- 0 ---- 0 ------ 0
2004 ---- 8 ---- 1 ------ 9
2005 --- 11 ---- 3 ----- 14
2006 --- 20 ---- 2 ----- 22
2007 --- 42 ---- 0 ----- 42

Total -- 81 ---- 6 ----- 87


Pre 2007 PD - 45 -- 51.72%
2007 PD ----- 42 -- 48.28%

Total ------- 87 - 100.00%

I'm not convinced that any particular pattern for the whole month has been set yet.

[suninphx]

Thanks Spec ! Nice summary...

[indiani]

A little summary of where the August approvals are currently (which will immediately out of date). It's, as usual, based on primary applicants who have updated the Trackitt I-485 tracker with the approval.

Total to date - 87

Aug 1 -- 17
Aug 2 -- 21
Aug 3 -- 10
Aug 4 --- 0
Aug 5 -- 22
Aug 6 -- 17

Total -- 87

Service Center

Nebraska -- 55 -- 63.22%
Texas ----- 31 -- 35.63%
California - 1 --- 1.15%
Vermont ---- 0 --- 0.00%

Total ----- 87 - 100.00%

Priority Date

PD ---- EB2 -- EB3 -- Total
2003 ---- 0 ---- 0 ------ 0
2004 ---- 8 ---- 1 ------ 9
2005 --- 11 ---- 3 ----- 14
2006 --- 20 ---- 2 ----- 22
2007 --- 42 ---- 0 ----- 42

Total -- 81 ---- 6 ----- 87


Pre 2007 PD - 45 -- 51.72%
2007 PD ----- 42 -- 48.28%

Total ------- 87 - 100.00%

I'm not convinced that any particular pattern for the whole month has been set yet.


spec,

I guess about 1000 approx. total approvals could be there so far with TSC slowing down to a point of dismal outlook. what percentage of the applications would never be touched ( based on history + pace of approvals).

[indiani]

I am seeing a pattern of earlier RD of TSC approving,

I applied in april 2012 and almost all the TSC approvals so far have applied jan 2012 or earlier, I think at TSC they might be considering RD

[Spectator]

spec,

I guess about 1000 approx. total approvals could be there so far with TSC slowing down to a point of dismal outlook. what percentage of the applications would never be touched ( based on history + pace of approvals).indiani,

I think it equates to rather more than 1,000, because of the relatively high number of porting cases in the figures to date.

When you say "would never be touched" what exactly do you mean? Do you mean - would not be approved this year?

[indiani]

indiani,

I think it equates to rather more than 1,000, because of the relatively high number of porting cases in the figures to date.

When you say "would never be touched" what exactly do you mean? Do you mean - would not be approved this year?

sorry, I should have been more clear. I meant "not approved " as they just aren't reviewed either because the visas are exhausted or they just don't get time to process or other reason ( not including the ones which are denied or RFE sent).

The reason why I am interested in the above prediction is to calculate my risk of not getting GC this fiscal. I am confident that once they review mine almost certainly they might approve but what I am worried about is the fact that they " never get chance to review mine".

I am hoping its less than 10%.

[vizcard]

sorry, I should have been more clear. I meant "not approved " as they just aren't reviewed either because the visas are exhausted or they just don't get time to process or other reason ( not including the ones which are denied or RFE sent).

The reason why I am interested in the above prediction is to calculate my risk of not getting GC this fiscal. I am confident that once they review mine almost certainly they might approve but what I am worried about is the fact that they " never get chance to review mine".

I am hoping its less than 10%.
Indiani,
Does it matter? Like I said in my previous post, ppl need to stop overreacting to what's happening. These are "micro trends" if we can even call them that. At the very least they are not indicative of what really will happen. It's just too small a sample set. My point is all this stress is not healthy. I understand the feeling of helplessness but if you feel the need to do something, reach out to your Congressman.

[Spectator]

sorry, I should have been more clear. I meant "not approved " as they just aren't reviewed either because the visas are exhausted or they just don't get time to process or other reason ( not including the ones which are denied or RFE sent).

The reason why I am interested in the above prediction is to calculate my risk of not getting GC this fiscal. I am confident that once they review mine almost certainly they might approve but what I am worried about is the fact that they " never get chance to review mine".

I am hoping its less than 10%.indiani,

I tend to agree with vizcard.

FWIW, as I mentioned previously, a quick look at USCIS Inventory figures for October suggested that around 2k cases with PD that were current the previous FY remain. Of those, it is impossible to say how many might be new cases that would not have been adjudicated anyway and a proportion of the earliest cases might be "dead" cases.

[goforgreen]

Gurus,

I need some advice. My PD of Dec 2007 is current in August and yet to get approval. This forum is calm and mature like always, but reading chatter on other forums I'm getting worried about visas getting over, after September later PDs getting approved, etc.,. I dont want to wait for another year since I want to settle at one place to ensure continuity for kids education.

The colleagues I spoke to advised me to reach out to congressman immediately, one person contacted congressman on first day becoming current and got approved soon (this was few years back) and another person waited for 3 months and after nothing happened he contacted and got his GC in 2-3 weeks and that was what the congressman office had told him (this was last year). I know its sounding like the chain emails, I wrote the letter 100 times and I won lottery and someone did not write and lost his job... :-) but jokes apart its true and I know these two people from last 4-5 years.

In your experience does it help to raise SR and/or contact congressman? is there any downside?

[vizcard]

Gurus,

I need some advice. My PD of Dec 2007 is current in August and yet to get approval. This forum is calm and mature like always, but reading chatter on other forums I'm getting worried about visas getting over, after September later PDs getting approved, etc.,. I dont want to wait for another year since I want to settle at one place to ensure continuity for kids education.

The colleagues I spoke to advised me to reach out to congressman immediately, one person contacted congressman on first day becoming current and got approved soon (this was few years back) and another person waited for 3 months and after nothing happened he contacted and got his GC in 2-3 weeks and that was what the congressman office had told him (this was last year). I know its sounding like the chain emails, I wrote the letter 100 times and I won lottery and someone did not write and lost his job... :-) but jokes apart its true and I know these two people from last 4-5 years.

In your experience does it help to raise SR and/or contact congressman? is there any downside?

There is no downside. I would raise the SR first and then contact the Congressman with that info as well.

[indiani]

Gurus,

I need some advice. My PD of Dec 2007 is current in August and yet to get approval. This forum is calm and mature like always, but reading chatter on other forums I'm getting worried about visas getting over, after September later PDs getting approved, etc.,. I dont want to wait for another year since I want to settle at one place to ensure continuity for kids education.

The colleagues I spoke to advised me to reach out to congressman immediately, one person contacted congressman on first day becoming current and got approved soon (this was few years back) and another person waited for 3 months and after nothing happened he contacted and got his GC in 2-3 weeks and that was what the congressman office had told him (this was last year). I know its sounding like the chain emails, I wrote the letter 100 times and I won lottery and someone did not write and lost his job... :-) but jokes apart its true and I know these two people from last 4-5 years.

In your experience does it help to raise SR and/or contact congressman? is there any downside?

I think there are many including me in the process of contacting the congressman's office, calling L2 or opening SR might just confirm what you already know that your case is "being reviewed".( I already spoke to L2)

As I mentioned in one of my previous post, the only people they( USCIS) are accountable to are representatives. while some might say that we will get approval whether we contact congressman or not, it certainly will not have any downside.

[indiani]

indiani,

I tend to agree with vizcard.

FWIW, as I mentioned previously, a quick look at USCIS Inventory figures for October suggested that around 2k cases with PD that were current the previous FY remain. Of those, it is impossible to say how many might be new cases that would not have been adjudicated anyway and a proportion of the earliest cases might be "dead" cases.

Thanks for the data, I think the DD and VB ( coming out in next week) might give more clues about where things are.

[indiani]

Indiani,
Does it matter? Like I said in my previous post, ppl need to stop overreacting to what's happening. These are "micro trends" if we can even call them that. At the very least they are not indicative of what really will happen. It's just too small a sample set. My point is all this stress is not healthy. I understand the feeling of helplessness but if you feel the need to do something, reach out to your Congressman.

well vizcard, IT does matter if we are able to obtain data, which folks like spec can do. you are entitled to your opinion that I am over-reacting ( but I do not feel I am), if I could just sit back and wait and carry on with my life, perhaps I wouldn't even bother to visit any forums but unfortunately in my case the stakes are very high and risk calculation helps making decisions,

your point that its too small a sample set is well taken but at this point that's all we have .

[PD2008AUG25]

( coming out in next week)

Next week? I think both will come out on Friday.

[vizcard]

well vizcard, IT does matter if we are able to obtain data, which folks like spec can do. you are entitled to your opinion that I am over-reacting ( but I do not feel I am), if I could just sit back and wait and carry on with my life, perhaps I wouldn't even bother to visit any forums but unfortunately in my case the stakes are very high and risk calculation helps making decisions,

your point that its too small a sample set is well taken but at this point that's all we have .

I don't know your personal situation so I can't comment on that. The simple answer is that you look at historic inventory data to get some sense of that. But my point is that you cannot control those dynamics. You should focus on what you can control.
- talk to your congressman
- raise a SR
- make contingency plans based on the 3 possible outcomes (get it this FY, get it Q1 FY14, get it Q4 FY14)

As far as going to forums, I come here for the analysis and insight but a big reason to be part of a community that is going through similar issues. I also go to forums of my fav sports teams. I can't control how the team will play or if they win or lose but it's a lot of fun to be part of a group of die hard fans.

[Teja9999]

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputs

[Eb2_Dec07]

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputs

Congratulations Teja . Enjoy green

[Eb2_Dec07]

well vizcard, IT does matter if we are able to obtain data, which folks like spec can do. you are entitled to your opinion that I am over-reacting ( but I do not feel I am), if I could just sit back and wait and carry on with my life, perhaps I wouldn't even bother to visit any forums but unfortunately in my case the stakes are very high and risk calculation helps making decisions,

your point that its too small a sample set is well taken but at this point that's all we have .

Indiani looks like they are touching RFE cases . Good luck

[Spectator]

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputsTeja9999,

Congratulations!

[GCKnowHow]

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputs

Congrats!!!

I was expecting more people giving the good news by now.

[ragx08]

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputs

Congratulations Teja!!!

[IJune05]

Congratulations Teja
Can I ask if you had ported from Eb3 ?

[Spectator]

Congratulations Teja
Can I ask if you had ported from Eb3 ?According to Trackitt, the answer is no.


Received approval for both, EB2 dec 19th 2007, no porting , mass rfe on june 14th

[wolverine82]

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputs

Congrats Teja enjoy the green in hand :)

[pdmay2008]

TSC approvals are less compared to NSC. Also we know that TSC handles more cases than NSC.

Less approvals from TSC. Is it good for next bulletin?. This will lead CO to think numbers might get wasted if he does not move dates ahead. I know that it will generate random approvals depends on luck again. Gurus any comments.

[MATT2012]

TSC approvals are less compared to NSC. Also we know that TSC handles more cases than NSC.

Less approvals from TSC. Is it good for next bulletin?. This will lead CO to think numbers might get wasted if he does not move dates ahead. I know that it will generate random approvals depends on luck again. Gurus any comments.

I do think that the next date movement is already set, except final touches. Those final touches could only vary very little as current demand is known to CO. IMO, Nebraska approving very high number of interfile cases is a strategic move.

[fountainhead]

I do think that the next date movement is already set, except final touches. Those final touches could only vary very little as current demand is known to CO. IMO, Nebraska approving very high number of interfile cases is a strategic move.

What is this strategy behind approving more interfiled cases?

[qesehmk]

Matt could it be that interfiled cases with older PDs are getting approved and that NSC might have disproportionately higher interfiled cases compared to TSC resulting in disproportionate approvals?
I do think that the next date movement is already set, except final touches. Those final touches could only vary very little as current demand is known to CO. IMO, Nebraska approving very high number of interfile cases is a strategic move.

[MATT2012]

What is this strategy behind approving more interfiled cases?

Nebraska's ratio of interfile cases is high, I could not find any other logical reason other than to help CO with the next month date movement. Within Nebraska center I expected to have an higher ratio when compared to the Texas ratio because Nebraska approved more cases last fiscal, but not as high as we are seeing in trackitt. The other scenario is, we were wrong with interfile estimates, that will seriously affect next months movement. But as Spec pointed out in one of his posts, it is too early for the overall pattern to form, especially with the approval slowdown in TSC.

[Jagan01]

What is this strategy behind approving more interfiled cases?

The strategy might be to avoid retrogression into 2005/2006 etc.

Most of the interfile cases have older PDs and therefore it makes sense to clear them prior to the cases with later PDs. The CO might want to ensure that everyone with PD before 2007 is approved, so that eventually when the visa numbers run out the EB2I date stays somewhere in mid 2007. It makes sense to give approvals based on PD anyways.

[MATT2012]

Hi Q,

Yes, But 60:40 split between Interfiles: Direct is very high. The older PD logic is correct. But as per Visa allocation process document, latest by August 1st all cases in DD until Jan01,2008 may have been allocated a visa. Considering time for approval of interfile cases equal to direct cases, there should be a higher number of direct cases approved. if I consider all Interfiles were in Demand( I don't), it should be 1:2(interfiles: Direct) , going by 2500 cases before 2007 and 5000+ cases in 2007. Even with 5000 porting approvals between Aug and Sep, the over all ratio should only be 1.25: 2, as of now the overall ratio is 1:1 . I am sincerely hoping by next week or so more individual update trackitt and we get some reasonable ratios.

[Jagan01]

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputs

Congrattts Teja... You surely are looking forward to a thrilling weekend...

[Spectator]

We already know from CO's previous comments that he believes "upgrades" in a given year are very high. Last year, he mentioned a figure of 10-15k a year for all Countries, while admitting that neither DOS nor USCIS kept any figures.

This year is not a normal year and numbers are likely to be higher than usual due to retrogression last year in EB2.

My worry would be that seeing a high number of approvals with early PDs in early August will merely reinforce CO's opinion about the high number of "upgrades" and that would make him more conservative in the COD movement.

As for TSC, I have not seen any evidence why they would have less "upgrades" as a % of total approvals and I can't think of a good reason why that should be the case either. CO knows they will come on-stream at some point and must bear that in mind.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Nebraska's ratio of interfile cases is high, I could not find any other logical reason other than to help CO with the next month date movement. Within Nebraska center I expected to have an higher ratio when compared to the Texas ratio because Nebraska approved more cases last fiscal, but not as high as we are seeing in trackitt. The other scenario is, we were wrong with interfile estimates, that will seriously affect next months movement. But as Spec pointed out in one of his posts, it is too early for the overall pattern to form, especially with the approval slowdown in TSC.

Matt, let's take it a little slowly please.

Are you saying that the NSC is trying to help CO justify a greater movement next month than otherwise justifiable, or a lesser movement? And how do we get there by a disproportionately higher approval proportion for interfiles?

[MATT2012]

Matt, let's take it a little slowly please.

Are you saying that the NSC is trying to help CO justify a greater movement next month than otherwise justifiable, or a lesser movement? And how do we get there by a disproportionately higher approval proportion for interfiles?

Pedro,

Sorry that I did not communicate properly. hope the below explanation helps..

From CO's point of view Interfile cases is the dark box. Though I believe that there is lack of communication between the two agencies, I think that they do have frequent meetings to understand trends. There used to be a weekly meeting before between the agencies, I am not sure whether it is followed even now, or what is discussed. it is still little unclear to me why USCIS cannot provide a count of interfile cases, it may not be exact but an approximate.

CO has mentioned several times that he don't have any visibility to interfile cases, the least USCIS can do now is to process maximum number of interfile cases before DD is compiled and give an approximate range of pending interfile cases. if they have at least minimum understanding between them, they would be able to make Sept movement more accurate. I am not sure whether that will impact favorably or adversely, but being accurate is better, with a minimum margin of error as nothing is stopping USCIS from actively processing interfile cases.

Speaking about strategies, I do think that both USCIS and DoS have some common strategies and at times totally different political strategies too. I could notice some strategies applied in EB2ROW approval pattern this fiscal.

Cheers!!

Matt

[MATT2012]

As for TSC, I have not seen any evidence why they would have less "upgrades" as a % of total approvals and I can't think of a good reason why that should be the case either. CO knows they will come on-stream at some point and must bear that in mind.

Spec,

I do think that TSC ratio of approvals to application was low last year, when compared to NSC ratio. As there is a higher weightage of last year applications in TSC, the interfile: direct ratio this year could be different in Texas. That is what I remember from last year.

Cheers!!

Matt

[Jagan01]

We already know from CO's previous comments that he believes "upgrades" in a given year are very high. Last year, he mentioned a figure of 10-15k a year for all Countries, while admitting that neither DOS nor USCIS kept any figures.

This year is not a normal year and numbers are likely to be higher than usual due to retrogression last year in EB2.

My worry would be that seeing a high number of approvals with early PDs in early August will merely reinforce CO's opinion about the high number of "upgrades" and that would make him more conservative in the COD movement.

As for TSC, I have not seen any evidence why they would have less "upgrades" as a % of total approvals and I can't think of a good reason why that should be the case either. CO knows they will come on-stream at some point and must bear that in mind.

Hi Spec,

I thought that the interfile cases always figured in the demand. Let us consider an application by someone in EB3 with PD Apr 2006. If that was interfiled with EB2 as the new category won't it be in the demand data?

If it was in demand data than CO already knew about these cases.

I believe the attempt is to go sequentially based on PDs and that would give him the best estimates as well as a chance to clear the older PDs. This also indirectly means that dates will not retrogress into 2005/2006 and will stay in 2007/2008.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

I thought that the interfile cases always figured in the demand. Let us consider an application by someone in EB3 with PD Apr 2006. If that was interfiled with EB2 as the new category won't it be in the demand data?

If it was in demand data than CO already knew about these cases.

I believe the attempt is to go sequentially based on PDs and that would give him the best estimates as well as a chance to clear the older PDs. This also indirectly means that dates will not retrogress into 2005/2006 and will stay in 2007/2008.Jagan,

The final part of what people call Interfiling is the conversion of the basis of the I-485 from the approved EB3 I-140 to the newly approved EB2 I-140.

That Conversion cannot take place until the PD for the new basis (EB2) is Current (source:- USCIS AFM).

For any cases with a PD of September 01, 2004 or later where the process completed after May 2012, the PD was never Current again until August 01, 2013.

Without the Conversion step, a visa could never have been requested under EB2 and the case would still show under EB3 in the Demand Data. When the case is approved, eventually the EB3 case will disappear from the EB3 Demand, although how long that takes is uncertain.

[Teja9999]

NO it is straight forward EB2, Thanks for all your wishes, Big relief

[vizcard]

Hi Spec,

I thought that the interfile cases always figured in the demand. Let us consider an application by someone in EB3 with PD Apr 2006. If that was interfiled with EB2 as the new category won't it be in the demand data?

If it was in demand data than CO already knew about these cases.

I believe the attempt is to go sequentially based on PDs and that would give him the best estimates as well as a chance to clear the older PDs. This also indirectly means that dates will not retrogress into 2005/2006 and will stay in 2007/2008.

The inter files are technically in the demand data but in the wrong category. As Spec points out, the actual inter filing cannot happen until dates are current. However, those cases are already a part of EB3 demand.

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

The final part of what people call Interfiling is the conversion of the basis of the I-485 from the approved EB3 I-140 to the newly approved EB2 I-140.

That Conversion cannot take place until the PD for the new basis (EB2) is Current (source:- USCIS AFM).

For any cases with a PD of September 01, 2004 or later where the process completed after May 2012, the PD was never Current again until August 01, 2013.

Without the Conversion step, a visa could never have been requested under EB2 and the case would still show under EB3 in the Demand Data. When the case is approved, eventually the EB3 case will disappear from the EB3 Demand, although how long that takes is uncertain.

Hi Spec,
Thanks for the detailed explanation. With your detailed explanation, the theory that giving GC to interfile cases is done in order to prevent the dates from retrogressing into 2006 is further strengthened.

Lets consider that GC were given on the basis of Receipt Date and not PD. If we had 5000 interfile applications with earlier PD and 5000 direct applications then it might be possible that 1000 interfilers get approved and 4000 direct applications. In that case there might be a scenario that many interfile applications with PD 2006 might be left out and it may well be around 2000. Then when the first demand data is released in the new year, we would see 2000 pending for the year 2006. CO can only allocate approx 300 a month which means he will have to move the date back to somewhere in 2006.

Lets consider the other scenario that GC are allotted based on PD. This would mean that entire 2005 and 2006 gets drained. Though the demand data would have more outstanding in 2007 and 2008, it still gives the CO the chance to keep EB2 India dates to 2007/2008.

Overall, I agree with your conclusion that it is detrimental for Sept visa bulletin. However, in the longer term it is advantageous as dates would not retrogress as much giving more chances for people to file 485 and get EAD.

[sandyn16]

On trackitt there is discussion saying visas might be getting exhausted? Is that a possibility so early in August?

[SmileBaba]

NO it is straight forward EB2, Thanks for all your wishes, Big relief

Congratulations Teja! Did you contacted Congressman/senator or opened SR this month?
Also if I may ask, your petitioning employer was a desi consulting company or else?

[natvyas]

Congratulations Teja! Did you contacted Congressman/senator or opened SR this month?
Also if I may ask, your petitioning employer was a desi consulting company or else?

I'm sure people have noticed it but the number of people who have updated their status on trackitt has taken the number from 87 at the start of the day to 111 when I last saw. (19 of those approvals came in today).

I think the approvals are not slow its just the issue with updating. In addition to that the percentage of 2005 and 2004 cases of the total approvals have dropped significantly.

[qesehmk]

That's very very unlikely so early in the month.
On trackitt there is discussion saying visas might be getting exhausted? Is that a possibility so early in August?

[longwait100]

With almost everyone with a pending 485 application now opting for a Senator/congressman inquiry, i wonder how effective these inquiries will be, as the already burdened USCIS will now have to deal with the added task of responding to these inquiries.

I hope they don't resort to a random response process for these hundreds of thousands of inquiries too!

[indiani]

With almost everyone with a pending 485 application now opting for a Senator/congressman inquiry, i wonder how effective these inquiries will be, as the already burdened USCIS will now have to deal with the added task of responding to these inquiries.

I hope they don't resort to a random response process for these hundreds of thousands of inquiries too!

I think everyone has standard response of " will review in next 30-45 days"

I have received privacy notice from congressman's office but will return leisurely.

I suspect RD is playing a role, mine is in april 2012 and very few have applied that late, so I might be one of the last to be approved.

[longwait100]

Indiani, you are probably right, a couple of my friends who initiated an inquiry have already received the "30-60 days" boilerplate response. I wouldn't be surprised if this boilerplate response soon becomes a norm as the inquiry volume increases.

From what I have heard, these type of inquiries are certainly effective during an off season when the USCIS is not overly loaded with applications.

[indiani]

as everyone is not updating on trackitt right away its difficult to keep a close tally of total approvals but overall the pace of approvals at TSC+ NSC appears to be constant, conversion factor is also a wild guess.

It seems almost impossible for everyone who are current to get approval in august itself.

In sept bulletin I hope they would decide to keep it current for atleast oct ( but appears most likely they would have to retrogress)

[longwait100]

Indiani, on similar lines, does anyone know if the visa numbers will stay locked-in for all the cases that got RFE @TSC. If the visa numbers are already locked/assigned for these cases then it should be just a matter of time until these cases are picked and adjudicated which is good news for the folks who are current. That way we can still expect us getting GCs even when the dates retrogress.

[indiani]

Indiani, on similar lines, does anyone know if the visa numbers will stay locked-in for all the cases that got RFE @TSC.

NO

If the visa numbers are already locked/assigned for these cases then it should be just a matter of time until these cases are picked and adjudicated which is good news for the folks who are current.

Nothing is locked


That way we can still expect us getting GCs even when the dates retrogress

If they dates aren't current they cannot request a visa. So no GC. ( in extremely few cases people have got GC without PD being current but it was an error)

[sandyn16]

There was discussion earlier on trackitt about visas getting exhausted? Does that seem like a valid possiblity so early in August?

[longwait100]

Indiani, if what you are saying is true then how will USCIS (@TSC) manage the visa number allocation for the non-RFE cases that will be current in the Sep bulletin.

Since they are pre-adjudicated (as the June DD suggests), they would end up consuming all the visa numbers and the RFE cases with earlier PDs won't get enough attention (lowest hanging fruit concept).

[indiani]

There was discussion earlier on trackitt about visas getting exhausted?

That's why stay on Q forum ( use trackitt for data) ...JK

Does that seem like a valid possiblity so early in August?

NO

[indiani]

Indiani, if what you are saying is true then how will USCIS manage the visa number allocation for the non-RFE cases that will be current in the Sep bulletin.

Since they are pre-adjudicated (as the June DD suggests), they would end up consuming all the visa numbers with the RFE cases with earlier PDs not getting enough attention (lowest hanging fruit concept).

sorry, I didn't understand your question well. you are making lot of assumptions in your question which I don't understand ( may be someone else can better answer yours)

[longwait100]

Thanks for being honest, BTW my only assumption was if your post #162 is true.

Anyways, I'll wait to see if someone else can respond, thanks!

[MATT2012]

For EB2I cases that were already in Demand with a PD before Jan 01,2008 visas get blocked as part of the DD/VB process. For the Mid June RFE cases(except interfile cases), the only question is did they stay in the EB2I demand or not. We had a discussion in the calculation page, and many thought that those cases will not be taken out, as process of taking out from demand requires reason code etc. As DD was not published last time, that question may remain un-answered.

[longwait100]

Thanks MATT for chiming in...as usual your response is to the point!

Yes, I recall seeing that discussion sometime back. I guess if the DD is released this month (which looks unlikely IMO), it should answer that question.

[Spectator]

For EB2I cases that were already in Demand with a PD before Jan 01,2008 visas get blocked as part of the DD/VB process. For the Mid June RFE cases(except interfile cases), the only question is did they stay in the EB2I demand or not. We had a discussion in the calculation page, and many thought that those cases will not be taken out, as process of taking out from demand requires reason code etc. As DD was not published last time, that question may remain un-answered.Matt,

I have a slightly different view, depending on what the phrase "visas get blocked". If you mean Reserved, I wouldn't agree.

For CP cases, which are reported in advance of the VB, the visas are reserved and transmitted to the Consulates when the VB is published. They are untouchable and must either be used for the cases they have been allocated to, or subsequently returned.

For USCIS, the system is different. When the VB is published, a list of previously reported cases already in the Demand that have become Current is sent electronically to USCIS from the IVAMS system, listing the cases that have become Current by Category and Country.

To use the visa, USCIS need to complete processing of the case, but they are not reserved in the same way that the CP visas are. They can effectively be "used" by another case outside the Demand if it is adjudicated first.

It's a fundamental difference in the way that DOS process cases versus USCIS. DOS know their Demand in advance, whereas USCIS only create Demand when a case is processed to approval or pre-adjudication. In either case, the visa is only used by USCIS when the case is completed. DOS have full visibility of their Demand for the month in advance, whereas USCIS do not.

If USCIS process cases to completion from outside the Demand already reported then those cases will receive a visa. If the total number of visas available run out, then those cases reported from the Demand may not have a visa available to them, if they are adjudicated after visa number availability has expired. Those cases will simply remain in the Demand Data, as will cases that were in the Demand that USCIS simply don't get round to completing. They will be reported again to USCIS the next month the PD is Current.

That's why people get "left behind", because USCIS do not know what their Demand is in advance.

For Categories that are Current and remain so, there is no known advance Demand to DOS from USCIS.

[indiani]

For EB2I cases that were already in Demand with a PD before Jan 01,2008 visas get blocked as part of the DD/VB process. For the Mid June RFE cases(except interfile cases), the only question is did they stay in the EB2I demand or not. We had a discussion in the calculation page, and many thought that those cases will not be taken out, as process of taking out from demand requires reason code etc. As DD was not published last time, that question may remain un-answered.

Matt,

I am not sure what you mean by visas getting blocked.

earlier there was a question whether the GC's are issued even when PD is not current as the visas might be locked/blocked ( I am paraphrasing but you can see my earlier post), I answered that once the dates retrogress then the application ( lets say mine or yours when PD is not current in October ) cannot be approved.

[MATT2012]

Matt,

I have a slightly different view, depending on what the phrase "visas get blocked". If you mean Reserved, I wouldn't agree.

For CP cases, which are reported in advance of the VB, the visas are reserved and transmitted to the Consulates when the VB is published. They are untouchable and must either be used for the cases they have been allocated to, or subsequently returned.

For USCIS, the system is different. When the VB is published, a list of previously reported cases already in the Demand that have become Current is sent electronically to USCIS from the IVAMS system, listing the cases that have become Current by Category and Country.

To use the visa, USCIS need to complete processing of the case, but they are not reserved in the same way that the CP visas are. They can effectively be "used" by another case outside the Demand if it is adjudicated first.

It's a fundamental difference in the way that DOS process cases versus USCIS. DOS know their Demand in advance, whereas USCIS only create Demand when a case is processed to approval or pre-adjudication. In either case, the visa is only used by USCIS when the case is completed. DOS have full visibility of their Demand for the month in advance, whereas USCIS do not.

If USCIS process cases to completion from outside the Demand already reported then those cases will receive a visa. If the total number of visas available run out, then those cases reported from the Demand may not have a visa available to them, if they are adjudicated after visa number availability has expired. Those cases will simply remain in the Demand Data, as will cases that were in the Demand that USCIS simply don't get round to completing. They will be reported again to USCIS the next month the PD is Current.

That's why people get "left behind", because USCIS do not know what their Demand is in advance.

For Categories that are Current and remain so, there is no known advance Demand to DOS from USCIS.

Spec,

My comment was for I-485 cases and was based on the below wordings. I know they do miss some cases somehow, and I agree with you on that part. Also I am in agreement that USCIS will go case by case before the final approval.

Is my understanding wrong??

Thanks,

Matt

1) THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM
Visa numbers are always allotted for all documentarily qualified applicants with a priority date
before the relevant cut-off date, as long as the case had been reported to VO in time to be
included in the monthly calculation of visa availability.

2) IVAMS
http://srwlawyers.com/department-of-state-provides-immigrant-visa-allocation-information/
When a USCIS authorization is made from the “pending” demand file an e-mail message is sent to a single address which each CIS Office has provided to the Immigrant Control and Reporting Division. The first page(s) of the message provides a summary listing of the A-numbers which have been authorized, and the following pages contain an individual authorization page for each A-number. That listing would be the same type as received if the case had been authorized when the USCIS Officer had originally submitted the request. Such authorizations are assumed to have been processed to conclusion during the month of authorization. If not, USCIS must notify VO that the case was not processed, the case record would then be deleted, and the case would be resubmitted to VO once the reasons for the deletion have been resolved.

If the Officer believes that a case should have been authorized, but has not received such notification, the program which is used to submit requests has a feature for checking on the status of individual A-numbers.

Indiani: I was just interpreting the above mentioned. The last statement clearly mentions that some cases don't get authorized, not sure why.

[indiani]

"That way we can still expect us getting GCs even when the dates retrogress" from post #161

I think using the term "blocked" might lead someone to think that above is a possibility and the entire discussion started from there.

I think we can all agree that once dates retrogress we CANNOT get GC.

[bloke0002]

Did interfiling request, basically switching primary on applications.. got the magic email today morning within a week of filing the request...
Thanks everyone for the wonderful journey..
Good Luck


Gurus...
need advice on what to do..
I have EB2 with June 2008 PD. Most likely based on discussions in this forum it is not coming through for another year..Filed 485 in January 2012 got RFE in July have not heard back since then..so safe to assume preadj..
Wife has EB2 with with Oct 2006 PD. which came through after 485 was filed through my case..
My questions are...
Should we interfile (if that is the right term for such switch)..basically making primary as dependent and vice versa..is that even allowed..
How should we do it?? What documents to send?? Where?? How much time does it take??
Any advice would be great..

[Spectator]

Did interfiling request, basically switching primary on applications.. got the magic email today morning within a week of filing the request...
Thanks everyone for the wonderful journey..
Good LuckCongratulations!!

[Vkkpnm]

Hey guys, I am first time 485 filer on 1st Aug with PD Dec 07. The cheque that I issued for i485 filing has been cleared in my bank. What does that mean? It means that USCIS has started processing my case or have just issued receipt#?

[qesehmk]

Many congratulations bloke! Happy for you!
Did interfiling request, basically switching primary on applications.. got the magic email today morning within a week of filing the request...
Thanks everyone for the wonderful journey..
Good Luck

[vizcard]

Hey guys, I am first time 485 filer on 1st Aug with PD Dec 07. The cheque that I issued for i485 filing has been cleared in my bank. What does that mean? It means that USCIS has started processing my case or have just issued receipt#?

Means that they have received and processed payment. It is not an indicator of processing the application (one way or the other).

[Spectator]

An Updated version of my previous post.

A little summary of where the August approvals are currently (which will immediately out of date). It's, as usual, based on primary applicants who have updated the Trackitt I-485 tracker with the approval.

Total to date - 130

Aug 1 -- 17
Aug 2 -- 23
Aug 3 -- 10
Aug 4 --- 0
Aug 5 -- 22
Aug 6 -- 24
Aug 7 -- 33
Aug 8 --- 1

Total - 130

Service Center

Nebraska -- 88 -- 67.69%
Texas ----- 41 -- 31.54%
California - 1 --- 0.77%
Vermont ---- 0 --- 0.00%

Total ---- 130 - 100.00%

Priority Date

PD ---- EB2 -- EB3 -- Total
2003 ---- 0 ---- 0 ------ 0
2004 --- 12 ---- 1 ----- 13
2005 --- 15 ---- 4 ----- 19
2006 --- 26 ---- 2 ----- 28
2007 --- 70 ---- 0 ----- 70

Total - 123 ---- 7 ---- 130


Pre 2007 PD - 60 -- 46.15%
2007 PD ----- 70 -- 53.85%

Total ------ 130 - 100.00%


Prior to August, there were 129 approvals in FY2013.

[Vkkpnm]

Means that they have received and processed payment. It is not an indicator of processing the application (one way or the other).

Thank you Viz.

[ragx08]

Did interfiling request, basically switching primary on applications.. got the magic email today morning within a week of filing the request...
Thanks everyone for the wonderful journey..
Good Luck

Congratulations!!!

I expected a flood of approvals on this forum - but so far we just got 3! Hope things change for good soon and many more will be able to share the magic moments!!!

[wolverine82]

congrats bloke


Did interfiling request, basically switching primary on applications.. got the magic email today morning within a week of filing the request...
Thanks everyone for the wonderful journey..
Good Luck

[RRRRRR]

That's very very unlikely so early in the month.

The approvals are still coming through, although they seem to be more from NSC.

[JosephM]

Finally filed my I 485 with dec 2007 PD last week. waiting to see what is next.

[assimilation]

Same here.. a painful wait ..!!

[indiani]

Did interfiling request, basically switching primary on applications.. got the magic email today morning within a week of filing the request...
Thanks everyone for the wonderful journey..
Good Luck

Congrats !

TSC or NSC?

[indiani]

An Updated version of my previous post.

A little summary of where the August approvals are currently (which will immediately out of date). It's, as usual, based on primary applicants who have updated the Trackitt I-485 tracker with the approval.

Total to date - 130

Aug 1 -- 17
Aug 2 -- 23
Aug 3 -- 10
Aug 4 --- 0
Aug 5 -- 22
Aug 6 -- 24
Aug 7 -- 33
Aug 8 --- 1

Total - 130

Service Center

Nebraska -- 88 -- 67.69%
Texas ----- 41 -- 31.54%
California - 1 --- 0.77%
Vermont ---- 0 --- 0.00%

Total ---- 130 - 100.00%

Priority Date

PD ---- EB2 -- EB3 -- Total
2003 ---- 0 ---- 0 ------ 0
2004 --- 12 ---- 1 ----- 13
2005 --- 15 ---- 4 ----- 19
2006 --- 26 ---- 2 ----- 28
2007 --- 70 ---- 0 ----- 70

Total - 123 ---- 7 ---- 130


Pre 2007 PD - 60 -- 46.15%
2007 PD ----- 70 -- 53.85%

Total ------ 130 - 100.00%


Prior to August, there were 129 approvals in FY2013.

Spec,

based on the data you have just compiled, is it fair to say that so far in august 2K+ GC's are approved for EB2I.

[vizcard]

Spec,

based on the data you have just compiled, is it fair to say that so far in august 2K+ GC's are approved for EB2I.

It would actually be 3.5K+ (including dependents). That's a pretty big number for just 1 week of approvals.

[iblveicanget]

That is a way too high, considering 5 working days. At this rate, numbers inlcuding prospective SOs will exhaust in 3wks. This cannot be true!

[indiani]

That is a way too high, considering 5 working days. At this rate, numbers inlcuding prospective SOs will exhaust in 3wks. This cannot be true!

lets see what spec has to say.

3.5%K seems too high to me but I do not have a good idea how to convert to total approvals,

my approx. estimation is 2-3K.

[Spectator]

Spec,

based on the data you have just compiled, is it fair to say that so far in august 2K+ GC's are approved for EB2I.I would say it represents somewhere around 2.2k, including dependents. It's perhaps a little more than that, since I expect more people to update their cases eventually. That number is skewed upwards slightly, because I use different % depending on the PD of the approval. Pre 2007 case currently form a significant % of approvals reported.

PS to vizcard:- the % figures I mentioned previously to convert Trackitt primary cases to actual numbers includes adding the dependent cases as well (about 1 dependent per primary for EB2).

Currently, the approval rate is about 10k for the full month, based on working days, but that is increasing at the moment, since yesterday was a very productive day.

[tanu_75]

I would say it represents somewhere around 2.2k, including dependents. It's perhaps a little more than that, since I expect more people to update their cases eventually. That number is skewed upwards slightly, because I use different % depending on the PD of the approval. Pre 2007 case currently form a significant % of approvals reported.

PS to vizcard:- the % figures I mentioned previously to convert Trackitt primary cases to actual numbers includes adding the dependent cases as well (about 1 dependent per primary for EB2).

Spec,
What % of the Eb2's approved so far would you attribute to porters. i.e ~2K approved on Eb2, but 500 of them were EB3-EB2?

[vizcard]

I would say it represents somewhere around 2.2k, including dependents. It's perhaps a little more than that, since I expect more people to update their cases eventually. That number is skewed upwards slightly, because I use different % depending on the PD of the approval. Pre 2007 case currently form a significant % of approvals reported.

PS to vizcard:- the % figures I mentioned previously to convert Trackitt primary cases to actual numbers includes adding the dependent cases as well (about 1 dependent per primary for EB2).

Then that would make sense. 3.5K just seemed too high. If you extrapolate 2.2K for one week, that's almost 9K for the month. Doesn't that seem high? Ofcourse the ones now would theoretically be easier and quicker to approve since they are pre-adjudicated or are being interfiled.

Am I missing something?

[Spectator]

Spec,
What % of the Eb2's approved so far would you attribute to porters. i.e ~2K approved on Eb2, but 500 of them were EB3-EB2?tanu,

I'm taking the very simplistic view that an approval before PD 2007 is an "upgrade".

I know some 2007 PDs are definitely "upgrades" but some of the pre 2007 PD are probably longstanding "straight" cases.

I don't intend to analyze it further than that.

Currently, about 46% of approved cases in the Tracker have a PD earlier than 2007. On that basis about 1.0 - 1.2k are "upgrades".

[Spectator]

Then that would make sense. 3.5K just seemed too high. If you extrapolate 2.2K for one week, that's almost 9K for the month. Doesn't that seem high? Ofcourse the ones now would theoretically be easier and quicker to approve since they are pre-adjudicated or are being interfiled.

Am I missing something?vizcard,

It would be higher than seen in the last couple of years, but it would be possible.

I calculate 10k / month currently, but that may reduce, since to date, EB2-I approvals have been pretty much to the exclusion of all other approvals (at least on Trackitt).

[rferni]

EB Inventory Data just released by USCIS as of 07/17/2013 - shows not much has changed since the last time they released this in April... thoughts?
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2007-17-2013.pdf

[Jagan01]

tanu,

I'm taking the very simplistic view that an approval before PD 2007 is an "upgrade".

I know some 2007 PDs are definitely "upgrades" but some of the pre 2007 PD are probably longstanding "straight" cases.

I don't intend to analyze it further than that.

Currently, about 46% of approved cases in the Tracker have a PD earlier than 2007. On that basis about 1.0 - 1.2k are "upgrades".

Hi Spec,

I thought taking a look at receipt date might help.

Approvals classified into Receipt Date:
2012 - 36
2011 - 48
2008 - 2
2007 (Aug - Dec) - 24
2007 (Jan - Jul) - 32
2006 - 1
2005 - 2
2004 - 1

Most of the pre-Aug 2007 cases would be EB3-EB2 porting (Interfile). This translates to 36 out of the total 142 approved cases so far on trackit.

Thus the porting cases have so far utilized 25% and the direct cases have 75% utilization.

When you asked for porting cases (EB3-EB2), the above data only points of interfilers. If there is someone who filed new perm and then ported the date then those people are not accounted as porters in the above calculation. This is because their receipt date can be as late as 2012 and thus we cannot distinguish them.

[bloke0002]

NSC all the way


Congrats !

TSC or NSC?

[Jagan01]

EB Inventory Data just released by USCIS as of 07/17/2013 - shows not much has changed since the last time they released this in April... thoughts?
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2007-17-2013.pdf

Jan Apr Jul
1. EB1I --> 2.7k 2.2k 2k
2. EB2(ROW) --> 13k 10k 7k

This data is compiled as of July 17, 2013 and therefore looks like EB2(ROW) approvals are lesser recently as demand is receding.
We can expect some additional spillover from there.

[rferni]

Jan Apr Jul
1. EB1I --> 2.7k 2.2k 2k
2. EB2(ROW) --> 13k 10k 7k

This data is compiled as of July 17, 2013 and therefore looks like EB2(ROW) approvals are lesser recently as demand is receding.
We can expect some additional spillover from there.

That's my first impression too - likely additional spillover from EB1 and EB2-WW. But maybe there's other interpretations as well? Also, the timing of this release (today) is rather curious ... almost certainly a precursor to the final bulletin of the year.

[Spectator]

EB Inventory Data just released by USCIS as of 07/17/2013 - shows not much has changed since the last time they released this in April... thoughts?
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2007-17-2013.pdfrferni,

Thanks for the heads up.

That's an out of cycle release.

I hope that doesn't mean we are not going to get the October figures.

[kumar19]

My PD is JUL 31 2007 EB2I. 485 receipt date is 11/30/2011. I called USCIS today. The officer told me that my case has not been pre-adjudicated yet. Given the current situation, having not pre-adjudicated yet means anything negative probably to me? anything I should/can do about this?

[speedbird]

My PD is JUL 31 2007 EB2I. 485 receipt date is 11/30/2011. I called USCIS today. The officer told me that my case has not been pre-adjudicated yet. Given the current situation, having not pre-adjudicated yet means anything negative probably to me? anything I should/can do about this?

Did you receive a RFE for an EVL in June 2013 (or any RFEs along the way)?

[kumar19]

Did you receive a RFE for an EVL in June 2013 (or any RFEs along the way)?

yes , received RFE on 06/14 like most of the folks. Currently in state " RFE Response in review"

[Eb2_Dec07]

My PD is JUL 31 2007 EB2I. 485 receipt date is 11/30/2011. I called USCIS today. The officer told me that my case has not been pre-adjudicated yet. Given the current situation, having not pre-adjudicated yet means anything negative probably to me? anything I should/can do about this?

Kumar I have called USCIS few times too and I was told mine is pending . I think end of the day it is just a matter of them picking your file and if all good asking for a visa # completing adjudication . However there is definitely a small risk of RFE if you already did not get one earlier in 2012 . In my case i asked a few times if it is preadjudicated and it was neither confirmed nor denied .

[kumar19]

Kumar I have called USCIS few times too and I was told mine is pending . I think end of the day it is just a matter of them picking your file and if all good asking for a visa # completing adjudication . However there is definitely a small risk of RFE if you already did not get one earlier in 2012 . In my case i asked a few times if it is preadjudicated and it was neither confirmed nor denied .

received RFE on 06/14. My attorney Replied on 07/16 :( . I have been told to wait until 60days from RFE response received date.

[Jagan01]

That's my first impression too - likely additional spillover from EB1 and EB2-WW. But maybe there's other interpretations as well? Also, the timing of this release (today) is rather curious ... almost certainly a precursor to the final bulletin of the year.

Another important thing to be noted from the inventory is that the Jan, Feb and Mar pending application for the 2008 are on lower side. Thus with even lessere spillover, the chances of dates moving to at least 01 Apr 2008 are pretty good.

Also EB2 (WW) and EB1I look like consuming lesser visas and thus we can hope for some relief.

[Jagan01]

rferni,

Thanks for the heads up.

That's an out of cycle release.

I hope that doesn't mean we are not going to get the October figures.

Spec,

Can it be possible that the purpose of creating this data is to help CO to figure out the forward movement for Sept bulletin. A month-by-month split is surely more helpful to predict the date movement for Sept bulletin.
There might not be a need to publish this but if they had already created it then they might have thought that better publish the data.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Can it be possible that the purpose of creating this data is to help CO to figure out the forward movement for Sept bulletin. A month-by-month split is surely more helpful to predict the date movement for Sept bulletin.
There might not be a need to publish this but if they had already created it then they might have thought that better publish the data.Jagan,

It's not very helpful in that respect IMO, because with a date in July 2013, none of the "upgrades" absent from the Demand Data calculation would be shown as EB2 in the Inventory either. Those cases will never show in the DD, unless they remain unapproved after the dates retrogress again. If they are adjudicated while the PD is Current, they'll just be approved.

That is the only data that would help CO set a better COD.

[wolverine82]

the user with PD June 2008 just updated in trackitt that he received his gc in hand and one of other user from some other blog confirmed he received his gc in hand with may 2008 pd does this mean anything or just random cases. both EB2 I


Jagan,

It's not very helpful in that respect IMO, because with a date in July 2013, none of the "upgrades" absent from the Demand Data calculation would be shown as EB2 in the Inventory either.

That is the only data that would help CO set a better COD.

[Jagan01]

the user with PD June 2008 just updated in trackitt that he received his gc in hand and one of other user from some other blog confirmed he received his gc in hand with may 2008 pd does this mean anything or just random cases. both EB2 I

I also saw the same update...

They are maintaining a google spreadsheet and that actually shows that 3 people with PDs after Jan 1 2008 have gotten their GC.

16th Jan 2008
12th Mar 2008
15th June 2008

[Spectator]

the user with PD June 2008 just updated in trackitt that he received his gc in hand and one of other user from some other blog confirmed he received his gc in hand with may 2008 pd does this mean anything or just random cases. both EB2 II do find those cases odd.

The Trackitt member received notification of the approval on August 3. I don't think even CO himself would know the likely COD at that point, let alone communicate it to anyone in USCIS.

I hope for those people that the movement does cover their dates, but I'm not terribly optimistic. I can't see EB2-I receiving around 23k visas this year, which overall is the amount I think is needed for all cases to be approved. Even allowing for people "left behind" to give actual approvals needed, I think it is a stretch, unless an awful lot of people are going to be disappointed.

Only very low use by EB1 may make it possible. The USCIS Inventory suggests there is not a lack of EB1 cases in the pipeline.

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

It's not very helpful in that respect IMO, because with a date in July 2013, none of the "upgrades" absent from the Demand Data calculation would be shown as EB2 in the Inventory either. Those cases will never show in the DD, unless they remain unapproved after the dates retrogress again. If they are adjudicated while the PD is Current, they'll just be approved.

That is the only data that would help CO set a better COD.

Spec,

Your response is precise and the scenario that you are talking about is the best numbers that CO would like to see before moving dates. I agree with you explanation.

However, I was thinking that DoS only releases yearly data in DD and USCIS releases monthly info in Inventory. Hence, CO might get slightly better idea using the Inventory.

For example, of the 16000 cases in 2008 there might be 1250 in each month (exact distribution) or 5000 each in Jan,Feb,Mar and 1000 in rest of the year. This distribution pattern is what can be figured out with Inventory.

[longwait100]

I got the magic text and email of my 485 approval about 30 min ago (PD Aug 2007, TSC). Haven't received it for my wife yet and her status still shows up as RFE review.

Has anyone been in such situation?....if so, pls let me know the future course of action.

Thanks a bunch to all the forum members for their valuable inputs during anxious moments of the GC journey. Hands down this is the best immigration forum that I've ever come across. Keep it up Q and other Gurus!

For those who are waiting for their approvals, hang on guys, its right around the corner, cheers!

[Jagan01]

I got the magic text and email of my 485 approval about 30 min ago (PD Aug 2007, TSC). Haven't received it for my wife yet and her status still shows up as RFE review.

Has anyone been in such situation?....if so, pls let me know the future course of action.

Thanks a bunch to all the forum members for their valuable inputs during anxious moments of the GC journey. Hands down this is the best immigration forum that I've ever come across. Keep it up Q and other Gurus!

For those who are waiting for their approvals, hang on guys, its right around the corner, cheers!

Congratulationssssss. Longwait ur Looooongwait is over now...

[Spectator]

I got the magic text and email of my 485 approval about 30 min ago (PD Aug 2007, TSC). Haven't received it for my wife yet and her status still shows up as RFE review.

Has anyone been in such situation?....if so, pls let me know the future course of action.

Thanks a bunch to all the forum members for their valuable inputs during anxious moments of the GC journey. Hands down this is the best immigration forum that I've ever come across. Keep it up Q and other Gurus!

For those who are waiting for their approvals, hang on guys, its right around the corner, cheers!longwait,

Congratulations!!

Jagan has already used the obvious punch line - I won't repeat it.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Your response is precise and the scenario that you are talking about is the best numbers that CO would like to see before moving dates. I agree with you explanation.

However, I was thinking that DoS only releases yearly data in DD and USCIS releases monthly info in Inventory. Hence, CO might get slightly better idea using the Inventory.

For example, of the 16000 cases in 2008 there might be 1250 in each month (exact distribution) or 5000 each in Jan,Feb,Mar and 1000 in rest of the year. This distribution pattern is what can be figured out with Inventory.I see what you are saying.

The Demand Data is just a summary of the information in IVAMS. At a detail level, it can go down as far as individual cases.

When EB3-C tried to sue DOS, a sample report was released that showed EB3 by Retrogressed Country (or ROW) by Priority Date.

So CO already has the information for preadjudicated cases.

It could also be deduced that Jan-Mar 2008 would be lighter - a Cut Off Date of 15MAR08 was in effect for a month longer than other dates in 2008 in FY2012.

[MATT2012]

I got the magic text and email of my 485 approval about 30 min ago (PD Aug 2007, TSC). Haven't received it for my wife yet and her status still shows up as RFE review.

Has anyone been in such situation?....if so, pls let me know the future course of action.

Thanks a bunch to all the forum members for their valuable inputs during anxious moments of the GC journey. Hands down this is the best immigration forum that I've ever come across. Keep it up Q and other Gurus!

For those who are waiting for their approvals, hang on guys, its right around the corner, cheers!

Congrats Longwait, Happy to see your approval. Looking forward to see your next post with your Spouse's approval.

[pdmay2008]

I have been telling myself since this morning "Let's not hope too much". As several VB movements caused disappointment in the past. I wish good luck for every one waiting for tomorrow's VB.

[indiani]

I got the magic text and email of my 485 approval about 30 min ago (PD Aug 2007, TSC). Haven't received it for my wife yet and her status still shows up as RFE review.

Has anyone been in such situation?....if so, pls let me know the future course of action.

Thanks a bunch to all the forum members for their valuable inputs during anxious moments of the GC journey. Hands down this is the best immigration forum that I've ever come across. Keep it up Q and other Gurus!

For those who are waiting for their approvals, hang on guys, its right around the corner, cheers!

Congrats!

Did you get mass RFE?

Did you open congressional query?

[wolverine82]

I got the magic text and email of my 485 approval about 30 min ago (PD Aug 2007, TSC). Haven't received it for my wife yet and her status still shows up as RFE review.

Has anyone been in such situation?....if so, pls let me know the future course of action.

Thanks a bunch to all the forum members for their valuable inputs during anxious moments of the GC journey. Hands down this is the best immigration forum that I've ever come across. Keep it up Q and other Gurus!


For those who are waiting for their approvals, hang on guys, its right around the corner, cheers!


congrats longwait!!!

[Jagan01]

I see what you are saying.

The Demand Data is just a summary of the information in IVAMS. At a detail level, it can go down as far as individual cases.

When EB3-C tried to sue DOS, a sample report was released that showed EB3 by Retrogressed Country (or ROW) by Priority Date.

So CO already has the information for preadjudicated cases.

It could also be deduced that Jan-Mar 2008 would be lighter - a Cut Off Date of 15MAR08 was in effect for a month longer than other dates in 2008 in FY2012.

Spec,

Thanks for your response... It helps in getting a better understanding...

[longwait100]

Thanks everyone for the wishes. Didn't contact Uscis or congressman.
Both me and spouse had received the mass Rfe dated June 14th and attorney reponded for both jun 28th.

Still waiting on my wife's status to change from response review to card production. Has anyone been in such a situation?....if so pls advise on the future course of action.

[indiani]

Thanks everyone for the wishes. Didn't contact Uscis or congressman.
Both me and spouse had received the mass Rfe dated June 14th and attorney reponded for both jun 28th.

Still waiting on my wife's status to change from response review to card production. Has anyone been in such a situation?....if so pls advise on the future course of action.

Most of the time derivative file is assigned to the same IO, so most people get the response in either the same day or at the latest the next day.

Do nothing until tomorrow noon and later talk to L2 if you want to know ( nothing to lose except small amount of time).

You might have even gotten the text before you read my post !

[indiani]

Matt,

Are you planning to request congressional query / have already done it?

I can't think of anything that would be of help to expedite the process.

I am not sure about the value of the congressional query based on the approval trends with/ without query but want to see what your thoughts are.

[MATT2012]

Indiani,

Will wait until VB and will make a decision accordingly. I don't doubt the value of congressional enquiry.

I hope the VB is released tomorrow. if the dates are too conservative or too aggressive there are potential issues.

Cheers!!

Matt

[indiani]

Indiani,

Will wait until VB and will make a decision accordingly. I don't doubt the value of congressional enquiry.

I hope the VB is released tomorrow. if the dates are too conservative or too aggressive there are potential issues.

Cheers!!

Matt

My suspicion is CO tends to move to bit further than what he can accommodate , In other words even though the demand might be enough to approve until march 1st or so, he might end up moving it to June 1st or something like that.

In that case even though good news for anxiously waiting folks with PD before June 1st., there might be couple of thousands or even more with PD 2007 that might be left over.

I do not consider "too conservative" will have much of negative impact on people who are current now, "too aggressive" is what potentially can lead to skipping earlier PD's., like what happened last year.

Regarding congressional queries, if they really do make an impact I can request my congressman to more aggressively pursue the matter., but so far I did not find much of data to show that congressional inquiries made any impact this month so far.

[indiani]

Is it just me or anyone else thinks that irrespective of SO applied to EB2I and no matter where the dates are moved in next VB, there just aren't that many working days left (with the current pace of approvals ) that USCIS can process more than 10K before they close the shop for the year.

The pace of approvals is probably going to be the limiting factor.

[MATT2012]

Is it just me or anyone else thinks that irrespective of SO applied to EB2I and no matter where the dates are moved in next VB, there just aren't that many working days left (with the current pace of approvals ) that USCIS can process more than 10K before they close the shop for the year.

The pace of approvals is probably going to be the limiting factor.

I just posted this in trackitt,

The below is the annual split of approval updated in trackitt, TX is lagging far behind so far.
----------2004-------2005------2006-----2007-----Total
Nebraska-11--------18----------24------38--------101
Texas-----1----------5------------7------38--------51
Total------12--------23----------31------76--------152

if I give a 6% weightage to trackitt volume, it is a 2500 number. if there are 5K interfile approvals between Aug and Sep. The total approvals should be around 13K for the current movement until Jan 01,2008. 2500/13000= 19% approvals got completed in one week. I am sure there are still individuals who got approved in trackitt and yet to enter the information. if the approvals from Nebraska continues in the same speed and Texas picks up speed we may have roughly 40% or more completed by next week.

[justvisiting]

FYI, USCIS decided to transfer new fiance petitions from VSC to TSC:

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=405247ce85e50410VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e7801c2c9be44210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Maybe this helps explain TSC lagging behind NSC?

[indiani]

I just posted this in trackitt,

The below is the annual split of approval updated in trackitt, TX is lagging far behind so far.
----------2004-------2005------2006-----2007-----Total
Nebraska-11--------18----------24------38--------101
Texas-----1----------5------------7------38--------51
Total------12--------23----------31------76--------152

if I give a 6% weightage to trackitt volume, it is a 2500 number. if there are 5K interfile approvals between Aug and Sep. The total approvals should be around 13K for the current movement until Jan 01,2008. 2500/13000= 19% approvals got completed in one week. I am sure there are still individuals who got approved in trackitt and yet to enter the information. if the approvals from Nebraska continues in the same speed and Texas picks up speed we may have roughly 40% or more completed by next week.

I think the 152 has some dependents counted in it, so I am not quite sure if we can consider the total just 6%. But I think the numbers you have calculated might be pretty close to actual approvals and my guess is it might be slightly above 2K ( spec thinks its 2.2K in his earlier post ), even though there is no way of knowing it for sure.

(I am going to spend as much time with my congressmen's staff from tomorrow as I do on the forum and hopefully that can increase my chances )- not related to the topic, just thinking out loud

[MATT2012]

I think the 152 has some dependents counted in it, so I am not quite sure if we can consider the total just 6%. But I think the numbers you have calculated might be pretty close to actual approvals and my guess is it might be slightly above 2K ( spec thinks its 2.2K in his earlier post ), even though there is no way of knowing it for sure.

(I am going to spend as much time with my congressmen's staff from tomorrow as I do on the forum and hopefully that can increase my chances )- not related to the topic, just thinking out loud

There are 152 approved primary cases, it went up to 155 now. Specs number was few hours ago, as new cases got approved obviously his number would have increased also. Regarding 6% conversion, every year it changes, but I think that is best we could do other than using a range based on historic representation.

[indiani]

There are 152 approved primary cases, it went up to 155 now. Specs number was few hours ago, as new cases got approved obviously his number would have increased also. Regarding 6% conversion, every year it changes, but I think that is best we could do other than using a range based on historic representation.

Thanks. I agree with the number ( as best as we could get with the data at hand)

[Spectator]

There are 152 approved primary cases, it went up to 155 now. Specs number was few hours ago, as new cases got approved obviously his number would have increased also. Regarding 6% conversion, every year it changes, but I think that is best we could do other than using a range based on historic representation.Matt,

I have 154 because sd37 is CC to UAE.

I am bang on your 2,500 mark.

Currently I have 51 TSC, 102 NSC and 1 CSC so we are counting the same.

I also agree with your estimate of c. 13k in your previous post. Originally, I might have said 12k, but early indications are that it is a bit higher than that as "upgrades are looking higher than I had allowed for.

With c. 3k already approved prior to August, that would bring total possible demand to reach 01JAN08 to c. 16k.

Current approval rate in August is about 9.2k/month (although that will increase as people update the tracker), compared to the 13k that have possibly become Current and are approvable.

Your previous post was a bit deja vu, because it said pretty much what I was thinking.

[venki080]

Friends
Is it only me that is not able to access trackiitt.com. I am only able to view cached pages from Google server.

[Spectator]

Friends
Is it only me that is not able to access trackiitt.com. I am only able to view cached pages from Google server.No problem for me.

[indiani]

Matt,

I have 154 because sd37 is CC to UAE.

I am bang on your 2,500 mark.

Currently I have 51 TSC, 102 NSC and 1 CSC so we are counting the same.

I also agree with your estimate of c. 13k in your previous post. Originally, I might have said 12k, but early indications are that it is a bit higher than that as "upgrades are looking higher than I had allowed for.

With c. 3k already approved prior to August, that would bring total possible demand to reach 01JAN08 to c. 16k.

Current approval rate in August is about 9.2k/month (although that will increase as people update the tracker), compared to the 13k that have possibly become Current and are approvable.

Your previous post was a bit deja vu, because it said pretty much what I was thinking.

your post gave me a lot of confidence that most of us ( matt, me and others) will be greened by the end of the month.

I am also going to pursue through my congressman's office as I know him personally and they hopefully can at least increase the chances slightly.

[MATT2012]

Spec,

As an after thought about split between interfiles and direct, I think my initial ratio was not correct. Currently we are dividing trackitt approvals pre 2007 : 2007 as a ratio between interfiles: direct. There were around 2500 cases before 2007 in July demand, we have to add 4500 cases to the same, so total pre-2007 approvals should be around 7000, also if we add 500 cases to 2007 demand so 5500+500= 6000, so the overall ratio between interfiles: direct should 7:6 or approx. 1.2:1. Interfile number on the higher side, Am I correct?

[natvyas]

Matt,

With c. 3k already approved prior to August, that would bring total possible demand to reach 01JAN08 to c. 16k.



Spec- Could you please shed more light on the statement highlighted above?

Thanks
Nat

[Spectator]

Matt,

With c. 3k already approved prior to August, that would bring total possible demand to reach 01JAN08 to c. 16k.

Spec- Could you please shed more light on the statement highlighted above?

Thanks
NatNat,

I could have possibly phrased that better.

Assuming CO allocated the minimum numbers to EB2-I in Oct-July (a fair assumption), EB2-I would have used 2.8k.

The last published Demand Data shows 8k demand to reach a Cut Off Date of 01JAN08.

In addition, there may be up to 5k "upgrades" not reflected in the Demand Data that might be approved.

If all cases were approved, the total number of visas required would be 2.8 + 8.0 + 5.0 = 15.8k for the current Cut Off Date of 01JAB08.

Clearly not all cases will be approved, but the number gives a guide to play with to deduct cases that might be left behind and to add further numbers to future Cut Off Dates.

For instance, it requires a further 3.5k to reach a COD of 01APR08. If 2k were left behind, actual approvals for EB2-I would need to be 15.8 - 2.0 + 3.5 = 17.3k to reach a COD of 01APR08.

I hope that explains better.

[indiani]

Nat,

I could have possibly phrased that better.

Assuming CO allocated the minimum numbers to EB2-I in Oct-July (a fair assumption), EB2-I would have used 2.8k.

The last published Demand Data shows 8k demand to reach a Cut Off Date of 01JAN08.

In addition, there may be up to 5k "upgrades" not reflected in the Demand Data that might be approved.

If all cases were approved, the total number of visas required would be 2.8 + 8.0 + 5.0 = 15.8k for the current Cut Off Date of 01JAB08.

Clearly not all cases will be approved, but the number gives a guide to play with to deduct cases that might be left behind and to add further numbers to future Cut Off Dates.

For instance, it requires a further 3.5k to reach a COD of 01APR08. If 2k were left behind, actual approvals for EB2-I would need to be 15.8 - 2.0 + 3.5 = 17.3k to reach a COD of 01APR08.

I hope that explains better.

Assuming currently about 6K are approved out of 16k (total Demand till jan 1st 2008), if additional few thousands are added, do you think CIS will have the capability to process 10K + (additional cases added with sept COD movement) ?

[natvyas]

Assuming currently about 6K are approved out of 16k (total Demand till jan 1st 2008), if additional few thousands are added, do you think CIS will have the capability to process 10K + (additional cases added with sept COD movement) ?

I dont see why not. When they can do 2.5K in 1 week then why not 10K in 7 weeks.

Regards
Nat

[snrusa]

Finally received the "Card Production" email for me and my spouse. Really dont know how to explain my state of mind now ...
Waited for this moment insanely ...

All the best for all the people who are waiting ...

PD - NOV152007
EB2I - Direct (NSC)