Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

[migo79]

I want also to add that if businesses sent their elite legal executive to present the president something that he cannot done using EO, then i don't know what to describe them.

also the Pres. will be in a bad situation, if he act nothing then this is something very bad since he said he would act by the summer end.
if he act too little for businesses then he will not have the support he wants.
if he only act for illegal i think a hell gate will be opened.

so the Pre. has to make his mind of what options he may have that truly improve the immigration system, anything other than helping to reduce the injustice backlog of legal immigrants would be considered as 0 IMHO.

one another takeaway from the current immoigration crisis is that GOP lost every single vote of future voters.

[migo79]

i'm very sorry Spec for being stubborn of the subject but i think many people interested,
can you comment in this paragraph from the Cyrus / Endelman article:


It is certainly true that family members are not exempted from being counted under INA § 201(b) as are immediate relatives of US citizens, special immigrants, or those fortunate enough to merit cancellation of their removal. Yet, we note that the title in INA § 201(b) refers to “Aliens Not Subject to Direct Numerical Limitations.” What does this curious phrase mean? Each of the listed exemptions in INA § 201(b) are outside the normal preference categories. That is why they are not subject to direct counting. By contrast, the INA § 203(d) derivatives are wholly within the preference system, bound fast by its stubborn limitations. They are not independent of all numerical constraints, only from direct ones. It is the principal alien through whom they derive their claim who is and has been counted. When viewed from this perspective, there is nothing inconsistent between saying in INA § 203(d) that derivatives should not be independently assessed against the EB or FB cap despite their omission from INA § 201(b) that lists only non-preference category exemptions.

We do not claim that derivative beneficiaries are exempt from numerical limits. As noted above, they are indeed subject in the sense that the principal alien is subject by virtue of being subsumed within the numerical limit that applies to this principal alien. Hence, if no EB or FB numbers were available to the principal alien, the derivatives would not be able to immigrate either. If they were exempt altogether, this would not matter. There is, then, a profound difference between not being counted at all, for which we do not contend, and being counted as an integral family unit rather than as individuals. For this reason, INA § 201(b) simply does not apply. We seek through the simple mechanism of an Executive Order not an exemption from numerical limits but a different way of counting them.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I think I have said everything I wish to on this subject. I wish good things were possible, but I fear they are not.

I have rarely (probably never) agreed with a certain organisation about anything before. I can no longer say never.

PS You never did answer the question.

Spec, I don't have as good knowledge about the law as you. But with my limited knowledge, I also don't see how President can remove dependents or get unused EB visas recaptured with EO. This is exactly being reported in media but I just don't see it happening. I sincerely wish that you and I are both proved wrong, especially with my PD in May, 2011.

[gs1968]

To Spec/Migo79

As Spec stated and we have discussed this at length in the past-the conference committee on the Senate Side especially Sen.Alan Simpson (WY) were not in favor of a floating number and wanted a solid number and the 140000 number was agreed upon so as to be able to sell the conference report to the senate. Also the EB-1 to EB-5 categories were created with this act and extensive discussions were held on this. Also in the event of a legal challenge,conference reports carry a lot of value for the justices as it clearly explains the rational background for these laws. I feel that what the business community provided is a wish list of what they would like to see enacted by EO but I think that the legal boundaries of what can be done by EO have not been visited or tested yet. As Spec explained the number of green cards and the manner of distribution is clearly defined by the INA 1990. Both EB and FB are under the "annually numerically limited" categories and I cannot see how the President can suddenly change that to a numerically unlimited category. Increasing EB at the expense of FB or otherwise is not going to fly either.
DACA was much easier as it does not involve the INA and is merely a framework to direct limited resources to higher value targets.The President also has the authority to grant Temporary Protected Status to individuals of certain countries at risk of war/natural calamity etc and again this is a form of reprieve from returning to their homeland till the status is revoked by the Federal Govt. DACA as well as TPS are given EADs if they can demonstrate economic hardship but not automatically although a vast majority managed to prove that.

[migo79]

it's just the enthusiasm that floated by the recent media news that made lots of people think positive finally.

it's just 2 to 3 weeks away to see what all this hype will end with :)

[Spectator]

i'm very sorry Spec for being stubborn of the subject but i think many people interested,
can you comment in this paragraph from the Cyrus / Endelman article:migo,


I believe I have already addressed that.

Endelman & Mehta never discuss 245(b) and how that affects the reading of 203(d). When read in light of that, it makes no sense at all.

They propose counting as an integral family unit rather than as individuals. 245(b) does not allow that, since each member of the family has an individual application which must be approved or denied. Each approval, unless designated under 201(b), will reduce the number of relevant preference visas available by one visa number. One I-485 does not cover an entire family unit.

Even the article makes it clear that dependents are part of a preference category.

[migo79]

Thank you Spec :)

[qesehmk]

Spec - thanks. I agree about I-130. But I think that is not such a bad idea...

Anyway ... but to be honest I think the long term fix has to be to increase numbers and do away with country limit. Everything else is cosmetic.


The PD for charging to FB is the date the I-130 is received by USCIS. The PD from an EB category cannot be transferred to a FB category. With no increase in the FB allocation, FB2 would quickly become retrogressed by many years.

[migo79]

H4 EAD already in the baking so whether or not there is an EO this will definitely see the light, i don't see this as tremendous success at all.

I think all what we have to do now is wait and see, but after the discussion in the board not that optimistic.

The president promise an overhaul of the immigration so not sure if we can consider H4 EAD which as said already baking as an overhaul.
that will not help thousands of legals from countries like India which has to wait years for GC and in the meantime get the stress of maintaining a valid visa for re-entry and potential delay for Administrative processing and possible denial when they travel abroad to get a visa.

The Pres. has put himself in the corner though, not sure how the current promise can yield a win win situation.

as i was saying it's only 3 weeks and will see what will come up :)

[migo79]

Q:
That's the key, increasing the number in the only way anything else is cosmetic.
completely agreed.

i don't care about country limit now! why?
as CO was saying removing dependents will make all categories current, enough SOFAD to make every country happy, at least for the coming couple of years.

[migo79]

That's a different story, let me say
anything that is congress related is bound to stuck, H4 EAD chances of success is much higher as long as congress is not involved :)

and if they fix the broken GC stuff there won't be a need for H4 EAD, at least for many people.

[Spectator]

Taking the case where dependents were not included in numerical limitations, I was a bit surprised CO thought it would only make some EB Categories/Countries Current for a period of a few years.

I've thrown together some quick figures.

Using the dependent ratios for FY2013, here's how the figures would look (adjusted to the equivalent with dependents included).

Cat -- Current --- Adjusted
EB1 ----- 40,040 --- 96,096 (2.40)
EB2 ----- 40,040 --- 80,880 (2.02)
EB3 ----- 40,040 --- 85,686 (2.14)
EB4 ------ 9,940 --- 21,669 (2.18)
EB5 ------ 9,940 --- 27,236 (2.74)

Total -- 140,000 -- 311,567 (2.23)

I think we could assume that EB4 would still use no more than 10,000 and EB5 couldn't use more than 20,000 (double current use).

EB2-WW even though it is Current doesn't use more than the existing allocation of c. 34,500 in a normal year.

Let's assume that EB3-WW could similarly use the full present allocation of 34,500 and EB1 used 50,000 (to be generous).

That still only uses 149k of 312k, leaving a potential 163,000 for EB2/EB3 China and India per year.

That still leaves EB2-IC with 65k FD from EB1/EB4/EB5 plus 47k of allocation and FA in EB2 for a potential 112k visas a year for EB2-IC.

If no visas were wasted in EB3, then EB3-IC would have around 51k plus any FD from EB2 available.

Since there is no Fall Up from EB3, any visas that they could not use would fall to the FB calculation in the next FY.

I'm not sure how that would translate to any EB Category or Country needing a COD in the foreseeable future. Even than, only EB5-C appears to have any danger.

Sure, the numbers might increase over time, but that has limits, especially those applying who are already present in the USA.

It's late, so I might have made a mistake in the calculation.

I suspect getting Current would be the quick part of the process - waiting to be adjudicated might end up being the rate limiting step.

[migo79]

Super Spec!

[Jonty Rhodes]

Already in the baking?!?!

With the immigration matters, my motto is this: Never count your eggs before you purchase chickens. Never count your eggs before the chicken lays the eggs. And then again, never count those eggs unless you really really really are sure about how to count.

To give you one specific example, here on this very board, you will find several people (including me) whose dates have been current for a while, and there is no guarantee to receive the GC despite all formalities being completed - some folks have done this some 2 months in the past. There was a time when the USCIS was giving away GCs in 2 months after applying, now they can't seem to digest the new medical reports in that much time.

Moral of the story: Some things change, but what doesn't change is the suffering. Immigration Gods have made sure we get our quota.

Until the H4-EAD rule becomes reality, never ever say it is in the baking. HR3012 was an already baked cake by this measure and what happened to it? And when I say it will be a tremendous success, I mean it. Most of the families I know are so hopelessly backlogged that they have accepted the GC is a distant dream and all that matters for them is an EAD for the spouse. For them, even getting that EAD will be a huge victory.

So, let them bake this cake first.

Agree with you sports. Over the period of years, one thing I have learned is to never trust the media reports until the actual thing happens when it comes to immigration. I don't have any hope from this President to do anything significant for legal immigrants because, a) we are not a sizable vote bank for him and b) there is nothing much he can do even if he wants to due to law being very specific. So I have absolutely zero hope on any relief for legals from this administration. The reason we are being shown these moon and starts could just be the strategy of floating a trial balloon in media on this potential EO and gauge the response of GOP, media and American people.

[qesehmk]

removing dependents - if they achieve it - either EO or legislation (doesn't matter how) - that will still mathematically NOT address all backlog (immediately) because the total backlog of those who filed 485 and have not filed 485 is significantly larger.
e.g. EB3I alone has people from 2005-2014 i.e. 9 years X avg of 12K per year ... EB2I is worse because now EB2I has heavier concentration. Then there is EB3ROW.

However CO is right when he says all categories will be current because at that kind of level of visa availability - he is not going to see that much visa demand and has to make all categories current in order to generate demand.

p.s. - As per country limits - I have always believed they are discriminatory against India and China i.e. almost 1/3rd of world population. Besides they don't make much economic sense. However they do serve political purpose for DoS just like diversity visa does (or used to).


Q:
That's the key, increasing the number in the only way anything else is cosmetic.
completely agreed.

i don't care about country limit now! why?
as CO was saying removing dependents will make all categories current, enough SOFAD to make every country happy, at least for the coming couple of years.

[Pundit Arjun]

Kd2008, Spec and Others,

I read about Obama's plan for executive action in the Monday or Tuesday's edition of Wall Street Journal. Correlates with the fact mentioned in the Oh Law Firm site.
The link to the article is : http://online.wsj.com/articles/obama-weighing-business-friendly-immigration-actions-1408405057



Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim: August 12, 2014 (Updated 8/20/14) http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=49304
DOS Liaison Committee series of monthly “check-ins” with Charlie Oppenheim, designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections, beyond the basic visa availability updates provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin.
AILA Doc. No. 14071401.

Folks of these forum should check whether they can get access to this document and if they get it then post at least the summary here.



Stupid as usual since Spec's fabulous analysis at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2033-Discussion-On-The-Politics-of-Immigration-Reform-(Comprehensive-Or-Otherwise)?p=48775#post48775 has clearly shown it is not possible.

[kd2008]

Kd2008, Spec and Others,

I read about Obama's plan for executive action in the Monday or Tuesday's edition of Wall Street Journal. Correlates with the fact mentioned in the Oh Law Firm site.
The link to the article is : http://online.wsj.com/articles/obama-weighing-business-friendly-immigration-actions-1408405057

Not to sound all "dadaji" on you ...but I have seen multiple immigration efforts over the last 12 years including 3 CIR bills in 2006, 2008 & 2013 with nothing substantial to show for it.

Businesses know they should ask for the moon to start the negotiations ..that's what they are doing. Does not mean they are going to get it. Their real aim is to get EAD's for all foreign graduates from US universities that renews for many years... so that they do not have to pay the current extortion rates for H-1B visa or worry about caps. After all, if nearly 5.5 million people will get EADs with literally no restrictions then why should high tech folks be punished in they way they currently are being subjected by visa caps and fees.

[moon80]

I am in this country 10+ years and still waiting for my number. Still I really beilive in below quotes:

"The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty"
"It always seems impossible until it's done"

[qesehmk]

easy sport ... he is just stating his belief!
Is there something YOU can do to fix the immigration system?

Go ahead and try. Start rallies. Get 100K people to attend. Get on CNN. Lobby with the lawmakers. If you have that much willingness, sure.

Quoting some pretty slogans is just that...quoting slogans. I am sure none of us is a pessimist; if we were, none of us would be here. That doesn't mean though that we should fall for fairy tales.

[migo79]

Q:
the country cap is definitely something needs to be changed in any furture CIR there is no doubt about that.
i was just stating the current situation.

and for the backlog, removing dependents should make all EB current (quoting CO)
of course there are huge number of people who yet to file from EB2/3I, but even though this wouldn't affect the EB being 'current'
this is because simply USCIS will run out of resources to adjudicate all applications on time, by the time the new guys will be adjudicated there will be spare visas available
plus removing country cap yet will yield the same situation you are describing because Visa availability won't be the bottleneck, it will USCIS time take is the bottleneck.

[migo79]

sports:
i didn't count the eggs yet, it's just so sad if the expectation of EO dwindle the point that the goal of it would be just EAD for H4.

[qesehmk]

agree and that's why CO will be forced to make everything current.
Q:
the country cap is definitely something needs to be changed in any furture CIR there is no doubt about that.
i was just stating the current situation.

and for the backlog, removing dependents should make all EB current (quoting CO)
of course there are huge number of people who yet to file from EB2/3I, but even though this wouldn't affect the EB being 'current'
this is because simply USCIS will run out of resources to adjudicate all applications on time, by the time the new guys will be adjudicated there will be spare visas available
plus removing country cap yet will yield the same situation you are describing because Visa availability won't be the bottleneck, it will USCIS time take is the bottleneck.

[moon80]

Is there something YOU can do to fix the immigration system?

Go ahead and try. Start rallies. Get 100K people to attend. Get on CNN. Lobby with the lawmakers. If you have that much willingness, sure.

Quoting some pretty slogans is just that...quoting slogans. I am sure none of us is a pessimist; if we were, none of us would be here. That doesn't mean though that we should fall for fairy tales.

Quoting slogans and beilive in them r 2 diffrent things.

I am doing my bit; just meet with my company's chief immigration officer and she promised to draft a letter to White house for support of Executive orders.

on different note,
looks like unused visa recapture is not impossible
http://watsonimmigration.wordpress.com/

[bluelabel]

As per the link below, the law already allows reusing the unused visas. Can President interpret this law to issue an EO to re capture unused visas?

670

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-79/pdf/STATUTE-79-Pg911.pdf

[Spectator]

on different note, looks like unused visa recapture is not impossible
http://watsonimmigration.wordpress.com/I've rarely seen a worse researched article than that one.

It doesn't even look at the relevant law for how unused visas are already dealt with in the INA.

Instead, it quotes a section of law dealing with specific instances where a visa has actually been issued and the person is either found ineligible or chooses not to exercise it within the 6 month period allowed, rather than never having been issued at all.

I'm pretty speechless that it should purportedly come from a lawyer.

I won't comment further on it.

[migo79]

Spec:

I was thinking overnight about the conversation and was asking myself, is there any rule in the law pertaining on how USCIS would accept the application for AOS?

in another word, the law doesn't mention either principal or dependent (agreed), the law says for each AOS application decrement the EB by 1 (agreed)

now if the EO reinterpreted the law to count dependent and principal as one, why would that prevent USCIS from creating a new form that would allow all applicant or one application, or interlinking the individual family application together to one [that should be a technical issue for USCIS to think about)

is there anything in the law can prevent USCIS from doing that if an EO is issued by the executive branch?

[moon80]

I totally understand what you want to say; but I dont want to kill my hopes as it is what keep us going on tough road.

On lighter note, I always admire 1-2 year kids who walk and then falls, but again stand up and walk with a smile.

[qesehmk]

Didn't Q warned me not to put soul and life into those bills and did I listen ? What do we do with all these Kanmanis' ? History repeats or what ?
:) History doesn't repeat but it sure does rhyme!

[Kanmani]

moon,

Yes! Hope is the best thing! Without hope I wouldn't have survived.

Hope is being served here with a pinch of warning that is it :) ( which would help us to stand again and walk, if not with a smile but at least without a cry)

[kkruna]

Some food for thought:

Apparently business has to provide some cover to Obama, as he goes about the real bang for undocumented ones. Now businesses want
1. More H1B
2. More Green Card

so that they supply side is increased.

But they sure do not want to expedite the process from Step 1 to 2 - which is the very reason for indenture nature of the visa system.

So between using 'Unused Green Card' and 'Not counting dependents', the first one helps them more in that it is one-time.

[pramod]

I know very little (minimum required for a scientist working on H1B):) about the law.
Looks like there are so many 'No's as far as the EO for legals.
Just one question - What is possible? Is there anything that President can do for legals??
Thanks

[Kanmani]

Pramod,

Legal immigrants are bound within the limits of law. Anything signed as EO cannot be pasted into the Immigration and Nationality Act as such, it needs the congress (parliament in this country) to pass it into law and later to be printed in INA Sections.

Illegals may have a chance of getting waiver from the congress, as one time pardon in the form of executive order. No need of INA getting corrected.

My interpretations stand corrected, Spec, Q please correct me if I am wrong.

[qesehmk]

Kanmani - here is my understanding.

Democracy has 3 pillars. Legislative Branch, Judiciary and Executive Branch.

The President is the Boss and executive branch is completely subserviant to him while other two work with president using checks and balances.

The Executive Branch i.e. Bureacracy interprets laws and implements them. The president has some leeway to enforce some laws and defer others. How much is a matter of debate. The president can - in theory - choose to bend and break all laws.

We don't know what straw will be the last on camels back. At some point of time Congress will be so much upset that they will impeach the president.

Nowhere it is written what is that level or line that the president can or can not cross.

In other words Obama can issue any executive order since he is the Boss. Depending on how crazy it is Congress may suck it up or may move to criticize or worst case impeach the president.

Spec - what's your thoughts?


Pramod,

Legal immigrants are bound within the limits of law. Anything signed as EO cannot be pasted into the Immigration and Nationality Act as such, it needs the congress (parliament in this country) to pass it into law and later to be printed in INA Sections.

Illegals may have a chance of getting waiver from the congress, as one time pardon in the form of executive order. No need of INA getting corrected.

My interpretations stand corrected, Spec, Q please correct me if I am wrong.

[migo79]

Q:

i'm totally in agreement.
plus back to my Q if you have comments

Why can't the president reinterpret the law and USCIS come up with a new single application for AOS, DHS is part of the executive branch.
that way he wouldn't be breaking the law since a visa will be deducted already to satisfy the law.

call it a workaround :)

[kd2008]

I know very little (minimum required for a scientist working on H1B):) about the law.
Looks like there are so many 'No's as far as the EO for legals.
Just one question - What is possible? Is there anything that President can do for legals??
Thanks

Yeah quite a few things:

1) Allow EADs after I-140 is approved.
2) Renew NIVs right here in the US
3) Make it easy to change jobs and retain PDs - basically do not require new PERMs after job change
4) Allow I-485 to be filed after I-140 is approved even if PD is not current etc etc

[qesehmk]

He will still be breaking the laws of INA that prescribe how the visas should be allocated across various categories.

However - in theory he can bend or break them.

But remember a president will only go so far - unless you are richard nixon.

Richard Nixon gave such crazy orders that finally executive branch refused to obey and some resigned leading to his own eventual resignation.

I think people should tone down expectations but not totally discount news that talk about EOs.

Q:

i'm totally in agreement.
plus back to my Q if you have comments

Why can't the president reinterpret the law and USCIS come up with a new single application for AOS, DHS is part of the executive branch.
that way he wouldn't be breaking the law since a visa will be deducted already to satisfy the law.

call it a workaround :)

[kkruna]

A cynical view is that Obama's team is indeed trying for impeachment talks to rev up - since Repubs are not in a position to actually succeed at it. The thought process is that whole talk will polarize the situation and result in more democrats cast their vote in Nov.

[qesehmk]

A cynical view is that Obama's team is indeed trying for impeachment talks to rev up - since Repubs are not in a position to actually succeed at it. The thought process is that whole talk will polarize the situation and result in more democrats cast their vote in Nov.
Or said in other way he is trying to rev up his base by talking about an issue that gets republicans in trouble - no matter what they do or say. Lets hope the rhetoric is followed by action that is beneficial to backlogged folks.

[moon80]

A cynical view is that Obama's team is indeed trying for impeachment talks to rev up - since Repubs are not in a position to actually succeed at it. The thought process is that whole talk will polarize the situation and result in more democrats cast their vote in Nov.

I agree impeachment or gov shutdown will be counterproductive for REPs..In such case Dems supporters will come out in big numbers for voting...

[migo79]

Q:
Well,

assuming one application or interlinking applications by USCIS:

*Considering dependents and principal as one application. (INA 203(d))
*Reduce Preference Visa by 1. (245(b))

and yes I agree with you that this will be extreme use of his EO.
comparing this EO to Nixon would be not fair IMHO.

GOP will not try to impeach him because they may be afraid of another GOP president with controlled congress by Dem to do the same, i guess max GOP will do is suing the president.

GOP also acknowledge immigration system is broken, the only thing i'm sure of is that they won't allow Dems to score a point in this matter.


The thing is all these media outlet are interviewing law people that encourage and support that move by the Pres. not sure if they didn't read the law or it's us who are very skeptical by the injustice immigration system.

I assume if the EO comes out. some people might lose their mind, GC process is an obsession, i read the posts in some forums and really wonder about the mental troubles some people are in because of that GC process.

at the end it is a card, but it's very important card that help people advance their careers.

I will remain optimistic guys, if no EO comes out or did nothing please don't laugh at me :), i will keep being optimistic :)

[gcq]

With all these discussion about recapture being out of scope for Executive Order, how did Pres give EAD to illegals ? Isn't it the law that illegals need to be deported ultimately ? Sure Pres can delay their deportation. But how can he accord a legal status to people who broke the law ? ( Nothing personal, wondering from legal standpoint)

[qesehmk]

What I understand gcq is ... giving EAD is not against law. What Obama did was "Deferred Action" on illegals - especially dreamers. Basically he told his executive branch that we are not going to act on these deportation cases and give these dreamers a chance to work and come out of the shadows until the issue is settled in congress.

Thus he hasn't actually broken the law.

GOP folks cry fowl because they think by choosing the "defer" the deportations - he is breaking the law. But this is a classic case of walking the fine line. I think he served well to his constituency and to America. I think it made no sense on trying to deport kids who came to US and grew up here.


With all these discussion about recapture being out of scope for Executive Order, how did Pres give EAD to illegals ? Isn't it the law that illegals need to be deported ultimately ? Sure Pres can delay their deportation. But how can he accord a legal status to people who broke the law ? ( Nothing personal, wondering from legal standpoint)

[Jonty Rhodes]

From Oh Law Website. Personally, I don't think EO is possible on exempting dependents or recapturing visa as Spec has extensively described before. I think this EO is just a talk and I don't see anything significant happening for legals at this point. I think if President takes this EO, it is likely to be challenged in court.

08/21/2014: Clarification of Ongoing Consideration of Treament of Immediate Relatives of Principal Beneficiary of Immigrant Petitions in Immigrant Visa Counts

The current law involves Section 203(d) of 8 U.S.C, Immigration & Nationality Act which provides that "A spouse or child as defined in subparagraph (A), (B), (C), or (E)....shall,...be entitled to the same status, and the same order of consideration provided in the respective subsection, if accompanying or following to join, the spouse or parent." As readers can see it, the statute does not specifically require that their immigrant visa numbers should be taken out from the numerical limit of various immigrant petitions. It is the INS and USCIS that have restrictively interpreted this statutory section to require to take out such visa numbers from various immigrant petitions annual national numerical limit. Thus whether or not the spouses and children must take out immigrant visa numbers from the annual quota remains a matter of interpretation. Should the President Obama interprete it different way and revises the rules that will provide that they do not take out from the annual national numerical limitation, it can prevail unless such executive action is challenged in the federal courts, eventually before the U.S. Supreme Court, that his interpretation is wrong.
When we reported this issue, we focused on the employment-based immigration quota system without mentioning other immigrant petitions, such as family-based immigrant petitions, diversity visa immigrant visa petitions, etc. etc. because we were discussing employment-based immigration system. However, the current statute encompasses all types of immigrant petitions and should the President exercise his executive power without limiting it to the employment-based visa petitions, it can cover any types of petitions and family members, which allegedly amount to 800,000. However, whether or not the President would go that far remains a question at this time. We will see whether he will indeed include this new interpretation in the forthcoming executive action and if yes, how far.

[gcq]

From Oh Law Website. Personally, I don't think EO is possible on exempting dependents or recapturing visa as Spec has extensively described before. I think this EO is just a talk and I don't see anything significant happening for legals at this point. I think if President takes this EO, it is likely to be challenged in court.

08/21/2014: Clarification of Ongoing Consideration of Treament of Immediate Relatives of Principal Beneficiary of Immigrant Petitions in Immigrant Visa Counts

The current law involves Section 203(d) of 8 U.S.C, Immigration & Nationality Act which provides that "A spouse or child as defined in subparagraph (A), (B), (C), or (E)....shall,...be entitled to the same status, and the same order of consideration provided in the respective subsection, if accompanying or following to join, the spouse or parent." As readers can see it, the statute does not specifically require that their immigrant visa numbers should be taken out from the numerical limit of various immigrant petitions. It is the INS and USCIS that have restrictively interpreted this statutory section to require to take out such visa numbers from various immigrant petitions annual national numerical limit. Thus whether or not the spouses and children must take out immigrant visa numbers from the annual quota remains a matter of interpretation. Should the President Obama interprete it different way and revises the rules that will provide that they do not take out from the annual national numerical limitation, it can prevail unless such executive action is challenged in the federal courts, eventually before the U.S. Supreme Court, that his interpretation is wrong.
When we reported this issue, we focused on the employment-based immigration quota system without mentioning other immigrant petitions, such as family-based immigrant petitions, diversity visa immigrant visa petitions, etc. etc. because we were discussing employment-based immigration system. However, the current statute encompasses all types of immigrant petitions and should the President exercise his executive power without limiting it to the employment-based visa petitions, it can cover any types of petitions and family members, which allegedly amount to 800,000. However, whether or not the President would go that far remains a question at this time. We will see whether he will indeed include this new interpretation in the forthcoming executive action and if yes, how far.

That is a question of practicality. However he is free to limit it to employment based applicants. Remember when he gave EAD to illegal children, he could have given it to legal kids also. But he chose not to do. So if he wants to limit the visa number exclusion to EB category only, he can do citing "quality of life of high skilled immigrants" or whatever reasons a smart politician can come up with.

[qbloguser]

Whatever he is planning to do, he should not do it like his healthcare law which was challenged many times and is still being challenged and being implemented in parts like ok you are exempt; no you are not; yes you are! WTH!!

If he takes any EO and later on based on the current polarization in DC , it is challenged in court, the GC holders because of that EO will be in limbo until courts resolve it. No, I don't want something fast w/ sloppy legal arguments. I would prefer to wait!


That is a question of practicality. However he is free to limit it to employment based applicants. Remember when he gave EAD to illegal children, he could have given it to legal kids also. But he chose not to do. So if he wants to limit the visa number exclusion to EB category only, he can do citing "quality of life of high skilled immigrants" or whatever reasons a smart politician can come up with.

[aquatican]

Honestly if none of the ways to give us a few extra GC #s work I would just be happy if
We can ability to file I485 ( I am sure the legality of that is easier to clear by executive action
Than dependent exemption or even visa #recapture)

IMHO visa # recapture should not be that tricky .

But failing that just let us get EADs . At least we have a bone.


Whatever he is planning to do, he should not do it like his healthcare law which was challenged many times and is still being challenged and being implemented in parts like ok you are exempt; no you are not; yes you are! WTH!!

If he takes any EO and later on based on the current polarization in DC , it is challenged in court, the GC holders because of that EO will be in limbo until courts resolve it. No, I don't want something fast w/ sloppy legal arguments. I would prefer to wait!

[kkruna]

For EAD, all that is required is to make some error, and make all EB dates current. No EO required. Like what happened in 2007. Probably intentionally.

[qesehmk]

For EAD, all that is required is to make some error, and make all EB dates current. No EO required. Like what happened in 2007. Probably intentionally.
kk - If you remember 2007 then clearly you are in the queue for a long time. Sorry about that. Those who don't remember it - in 2007 all dates were made current because DOS was very unhappy with USCIS over lack of any visibility and probably was running into a situation where they would've wasted visas if they had not made dates current. Luckily they did and there was some drama around it. But finally they honored the dates that were made current.

[Spectator]

also Bruce M. who worked on the current bill says this is possible via EO?

"
The decision to count dependents against the caps "is an administrative interpretation" of the law, "and anything that's an administrative interpretation can be changed," said former U.S. Rep. Bruce Morrison (D-Conn.), who chaired the House Immigration subcommittee responsible for drafting the 1990 immigration reform legislation that created the present system.
"
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9249614/Obama_has_big_options_for_green_card_H_1B_reform_w ithout_Congress_

always appreciate your commentsI said previously in a reply to this post:


Bruce Morrison should therefore also know that, in Conference (to reconcile House and Senate versions), a proposal for 75k EB visas (excluding dependents) was rejected in favour a 140k allocation which included dependents. This is discussed in the Endelman & Mehta article. Mr. Morrison seems to suffering from selective amnesia. That's probably more to do with who his paymasters are now.

I think I rest my case. It has been pointed out elsewhere that in the very same Endelman and Mehta article (http://www.ilw.com/articles/2012,0201-endelman.shtm) that discusses INA 203(d), footnote 8 says:


Former Congressman Bruce Morrison (D-Ct), the House floor manager for IMMACT 90, told the authors on August 31, 2009 that there is no basis in IMMACT 90 to argue that dependents should be exempt. He does say that the House bill HR 4300 would have exempted dependents but the EB level in the House bill would have been much lower-75,000 principals multiplied by 1.5 to give a grand EB total of 187,000; however, this House proposal was rejected in Conference. The goal in Conference was to set a total number. The House conferees wanted more but former Senator Alan Simpson (R- Wyo) wanted less and did not like exemptions. Ultimately, the EB number was set at 140,000. See Informal Interview of Congressman Bruce Morrison by Gary Endelman on August 31, 2009 (on file with the authors).

Politicians (or ex politicians) - they are all the same. Redacted, redacted, redacted!!

[gten20]

Looks like recapture, excluding dependents etc.. for helping legal immigrants is all smoke and mirrors.


Even the most optimistic of immigration reform proponents knows the chance of a legislative vehicle at this point is zero," says Emily Lam, vice president of health care and federal issues for the Silicon Valley Leadership Group, a technology company lobbying group that supports comprehensive immigration reform. In fact, SVLG is already planning a trip to Washington in December to express disappointment with Congress's inaction

source: http://www.inc.com/jeremy-quittner/silence-of-pro-immigration-reform-groups-before-midterms.html?cid=sf01001


“With the problem at the border and the president’s rhetoric on executive action have totally poisoned the well,” said Charlie Spies, who helped organized Republicans for Immigration Reform. “I don’t think anybody believes anything can happen this year.”

source: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/billionaires-silent-after-big-splash-110211.html

[Prabhas]

Guys,

Please consider this news with a pinch of salt!

I did see similar news floating in many sites for few weeks now but this info I got is from quite a good internal source a Federal Employee and they got orders to bring out a process to give out *** for H4's. Well that's a sure shot administrative fix we know will come to reality this time but the other mandatory fix that these offices are talking as a second mandatory fix by the president is 'Remove Dependents from the Immigration GC Visa Cap' . Recapture of Visas is very unlikely as per these sources. But if we get the dependents removed from the count then I believe that's a huge relief for the EB population overall.

I hope this news turns out true and since Obama will be traveling next week, he needs to gets this done within this week. lets stay tuned.

V

[feedmyback]

I don't know the possibilities. Ideally all I140 approved candidates should be able to apply for EAD. But if for some reason, that is also very difficult, at least people who have finished 6 years on H1 and I 140 approved should be eligible. Basically same pre conditions as laid out for H4 EAD as of now.

[kkruna]

Guys,

Please consider this news with a pinch of salt!

I did see similar news floating in many sites for few weeks now but this info I got is from quite a good internal source a Federal Employee and they got orders to bring out a process to give out *** for H4's. Well that's a sure shot administrative fix we know will come to reality this time but the other mandatory fix that these offices are talking as a second mandatory fix by the president is 'Remove Dependents from the Immigration GC Visa Cap' . Recapture of Visas is very unlikely as per these sources. But if we get the dependents removed from the count then I believe that's a huge relief for the EB population overall.

I hope this news turns out true and since Obama will be traveling next week, he needs to gets this done within this week. lets stay tuned.

V

If true, this is a real 'scoop' even when sprinked with salt.

[vizcard]

Guys,

Please consider this news with a pinch of salt!

I did see similar news floating in many sites for few weeks now but this info I got is from quite a good internal source a Federal Employee and they got orders to bring out a process to give out *** for H4's. Well that's a sure shot administrative fix we know will come to reality this time but the other mandatory fix that these offices are talking as a second mandatory fix by the president is 'Remove Dependents from the Immigration GC Visa Cap' . Recapture of Visas is very unlikely as per these sources. But if we get the dependents removed from the count then I believe that's a huge relief for the EB population overall.

I hope this news turns out true and since Obama will be traveling next week, he needs to gets this done within this week. lets stay tuned.

V

Immigration Voice says it's not possible through executive action. This is what they say
-----------

We have received multiple inquiries about what is going on with the EB admin fixes. Rather than answering each message individually, here is our attempt to clear some air.

Apparently, there are some people posting online that a decision could soon be made on recapture of unused immigrant visas. This is not true. Recapture was briefly discussed sometime back but it was decided that recapture of unused visas cannot be done through administrative means. Same goes for exempting dependents. Things can always change, but just so you know, no such decision is pending on recapture this week.

For the sake of clarity, let us also share some important information about EAD for H-4 rule. This fix was already announced over 2 months back. USCIS/DHS is reviewing submitted comments to the notification. After the review of the comments is complete, DHS will issue final ruling. So it is just a matter of time. The decision for EAD for H-4 was already made some time back and no more decision making from the President of DHS is needed. DHS/USCIS is currently reviewing the comments and the final rule will be announced soon (no specific timeline available).

If it was possible within the existing framework of law, without a doubt we would have preferred more green cards, whichever means these green cards would come. However, at this time, that is not possible within the existing law. We have also asked for recapture of unused green cards and exempting dependents from numerical limits. But as it appears, these fixes cannot be done through Administrative method within the existing law. As it appears right now, recapture of unused green cards and exempting dependents from numerical limits will require Congressional action.

Therefore, our focus is on fixes that will help improve quality of life for EB applicants. Our fixes will allow everyone to live a free life and be able to do the things each one is potentially capable of doing. Our suggestions are focused on fixes that will allow EB immigrants to change jobs/employers after immigrant petition, clarity with what jobs one can change into, access to immigration (green card and H1/L1 application and decision notices) required to change job, not having to restart green card process after approval of I-140, long term EAD and AP so EB applicants and employers are not stressed out over receiving EAD renewals on time, and other such fixes.

We believe that these minor technical fixes will help improve the quality of life of over a million skilled immigrants and their families stuck in green card backlogs.

We are attempting to keep things clear as much possible for everyone waiting in EB backlogs. As Admin fix process unfolds, you will probably read all sorts of news/information online. For your own benefit, please filtering facts from fiction when consuming information available online.

[Prabhas]

Immigration Voice says it's not possible through executive action. This is what they say
-----------

We have received multiple inquiries about what is going on with the EB admin fixes. Rather than answering each message individually, here is our attempt to clear some air.

Apparently, there are some people posting online that a decision could soon be made on recapture of unused immigrant visas. This is not true. Recapture was briefly discussed sometime back but it was decided that recapture of unused visas cannot be done through administrative means. Same goes for exempting dependents. Things can always change, but just so you know, no such decision is pending on recapture this week.

For the sake of clarity, let us also share some important information about EAD for H-4 rule. This fix was already announced over 2 months back. USCIS/DHS is reviewing submitted comments to the notification. After the review of the comments is complete, DHS will issue final ruling. So it is just a matter of time. The decision for EAD for H-4 was already made some time back and no more decision making from the President of DHS is needed. DHS/USCIS is currently reviewing the comments and the final rule will be announced soon (no specific timeline available).

If it was possible within the existing framework of law, without a doubt we would have preferred more green cards, whichever means these green cards would come. However, at this time, that is not possible within the existing law. We have also asked for recapture of unused green cards and exempting dependents from numerical limits. But as it appears, these fixes cannot be done through Administrative method within the existing law. As it appears right now, recapture of unused green cards and exempting dependents from numerical limits will require Congressional action.

Therefore, our focus is on fixes that will help improve quality of life for EB applicants. Our fixes will allow everyone to live a free life and be able to do the things each one is potentially capable of doing. Our suggestions are focused on fixes that will allow EB immigrants to change jobs/employers after immigrant petition, clarity with what jobs one can change into, access to immigration (green card and H1/L1 application and decision notices) required to change job, not having to restart green card process after approval of I-140, long term EAD and AP so EB applicants and employers are not stressed out over receiving EAD renewals on time, and other such fixes.

We believe that these minor technical fixes will help improve the quality of life of over a million skilled immigrants and their families stuck in green card backlogs.

We are attempting to keep things clear as much possible for everyone waiting in EB backlogs. As Admin fix process unfolds, you will probably read all sorts of news/information online. For your own benefit, please filtering facts from fiction when consuming information available online.

Viz,

Thanks for enlightening me with this information. I was actually very skeptical about writing that message just with the intention of not to give any false hopes to our aspirants but I slipped. I should have read the earlier messages on this thread.

I didnt realize that there is one such thread until you moved my post here.

Regards,

V

[migo79]

I pay lots of respect to members and gurus of this forum and their opinions always as bright,

seeing this:
http://shusterman.com/obama-double-number-green-cards.html

i'm not sure if AILA is pushing hard on such actions and they don't know the law, Carl Shusterman is a reputable immigration AttorneyI believe and he still says.


The State Department has always interpreted these numerical caps to include that not only the principal beneficiary, but all the derivative beneficiaries of a petition. However, this policy is subject to change since it is not mandated by law.

now we have ~3 weeks till the summer officially over, ~2 weeks before congress coming out of recess.

I really want that hype to be over very soon, to count or not to count :-)

[Jonty Rhodes]

I pay lots of respect to members and gurus of this forum and their opinions always as bright,

seeing this:
http://shusterman.com/obama-double-number-green-cards.html

i'm not sure if AILA is pushing hard on such actions and they don't know the law, Carl Shusterman is a reputable immigration lawyer I believe and he still says.



now we have ~3 weeks till the summer officially over, ~2 weeks before congress coming out of recess.

I really want that hype to be over very soon, to count or not to count :-)

This is interesting considering its coming from a reputable immigration attorney. There has been a lot of talk especially in last 2 days about the upcoming EO since the President has returned from vacation. He is traveling next week so essentially he has either this week to do something or 2 weeks after next week. White House Spokesperson mentioned yesterday about something happening before 21st September, which is the end of summer. Today, I read that Luis Guiterrez and 30 other immigration advocates gathered at Mayor Rahm Emmanuel's office in Chicago to "get ready" for EO (whatever that means) and Guiterrez was boasting about his source in the White House who reportedly told him that possibly 5 million illegals may be given legal status with EO. Also, there are various sources talking about the possibility of removing dependents.

Now, personally I believe that nothing of this sorts is going to happen. If there is an EO, it most likely may involve border security. DACA alone will not go down very well with public but if it is combined with border security, than it may be just a little more palatable.

The big question for EB community is, "Can the President remove dependents from the numerical limits?" And if he can, the next question is "Will he do it?"

I don't have lot of hopes. If it happens, great. If it doesn't, life will go on. I have seen my hopes getting dashed too many times and I am not very optimistic or enthusiastic about this unless some real ground action takes place this time.

I am not even looking forward to EAD for H4 at this time unless it is implemented in reality.

[migo79]

exactly, Shusterman is well reputable, testified before the senate so if he is saying this with no ground it would be serious credibility issue.

and yes even Fox news i saw report they got one lawyer to discuss that the Obama will free up around 800,000 GC visa annually.

the president is walking a hard road no matter if he did / didn't do anything, he should shoot as high as he can.

on another hand looking at expanding DACA, they said that he will consider EAD for parents of US citizen, here is the kicker
well that include legal immigrants that have US child? that's interesting
he cannot differentiate between US citizens so if he do that for illegals then legals should get a long with it as well.

one thing i'm sure of if he do anything it won't be for illegal alone, legals will find their way inside with this push from immigration advocates and businesses.

3 weeks, let's see :)

[migo79]

here is another one,
now the question not if he will act, it's what scale he will go for :-)


WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama is poised to take action on immigration by the end of September, with the White House working on details relating to significant policy changes in the wake of Congress failing to act, sources told me.

Sources who have been in meetings at the White House said the decision for Obama to act has been made, legal reviews have been conducted, and “right now it is a question of timing, scale, how to pay for it and how to make it work.”



and:


The Associated Press reported this week that Obama is considering executive actions on changes in the nation's immigration system that have been requested by business leaders. One potential step that's popular among business and family groups is a change in the way green cards are counted that would essentially free up some 800,000 additional visas the first year, the AP reported.

more interesting one ( ican only access it via google cache since it is a paid subscription, note that it is from NJ Law Journal)


To the question of whether the president can change DHS's long-standing interpretation of counting family members toward the per-country green card quota, he certainly can, but, if challenged, the president/DHS may have a tough time sustaining such a battle. Once DHS changes its interpretation, it might not be entitled to Chevron deference. Note that not all agency interpretations are given Chevron deference. The U.S. Supreme Court has specifically stated that only interpretations arrived at through certain procedures (such as formal adjudications and notice-and-comment rulemaking, or by some other indication of a comparable congressional intent) qualify for Chevron deference. Above all, DHS will face an even greater challenge defending the new interpretation when the same agency has been interpreting the law differently for so many years.

Based on the foregoing, it can be concluded that though the president can use his authority to maneuver within the boundary that has already been set by the Congress through enacted legislation


http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ncNFD6maQTgJ:www.njlawjournal.com/id%3D1202666832121/Can-President-Overhaul-Immigration--Without-Congress-Blessing+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us


so now what? again wait and see :-D
but now more lawyers (NJ Law journal is a reputable one) are saying that he can do although can be challenged, but he can do.

now Obamacare got challenged and the court said he has overreached, eventhough it is still a law.

so now i really hope that he can do it and solve the misery of the people and make a fair policy change.

[qesehmk]

...but now more lawyers (NJ Law journal is a reputable one) are saying that he can do although can be challenged, but he can do.

I absolutely believe that. However the million dollar question is - will he?

If you carefully read schusterman's article - he also says that the president is "considering".

"Considering" keeps it wide open!!

[seattlet]

my concern is what happens if the next president decides to revoke the executive order which Obama signs. Since it is not the law, will folks be in limbo if the EO is retracted / not enforced by the new president's cabinet ?

In cases where a green card is issued based on an EO (like counting dependents as one), can they rescind the green card ?

my concern is that politicians would do anything to get votes but something like green card cannot be given and taken back (which might be possible since there is no law to safeguard folks who get it )

If a law was changed /revoked, I believe there is some protection to those actions which happened under the old law (which can be argued in the court ) but Im not sure if the court would provide such protection to actions performed under an rescinded EO.

(if Obama cared about legals he would have done something in 6 years, so I dont
believe he has any intention of helping legal immigrants without doing something for illegals who's extended families are his vote base)

I believe if both the senate and congress end up having the same party as majority, legals will definitely get something. November is not far
away so I hope that happens. If Dems get congress, illegals benefit, if Reps gets it, illegals doomed.


I absolutely believe that. However the million dollar question is - will he?

If you carefully read schusterman's article - he also says that the president is "considering".

"Considering" keeps it wide open!!

[qesehmk]

my concern is what happens if the next president decides to revoke the executive order which Obama signs. Since it is not the law, will folks be in limbo if the EO is retracted / not enforced by the new president's cabinet ?


I am 99.99% confident that if once issued such a green card will not be revoked for reasons you are afraid of. This is a country of immigrants and you will be surprised how many Americans actually like immigrants.

However of course next president may consider revoking such EO. In fact I am not even sure if an EO is a permanent thing. I really do not know. I would've thought that an EO is administration specific policy. So by default it may get changed once a new administration comes in.

However once (if at all) this change in policy happens - there is very little incentive for the new administration NOT to continue old policy. See .. every change has its cost and benefits. If Obama does this change he will have already paid the cost and reaped benefit. So the new administration will have to weigh in costs and benefits anew. And my guess is the benefits will not outweigh costs.

p.s.. - but to be honest we are counting chickens very very prematurely. I haven't seen any strong indication about such a change.

[imdeng]

Couple of quick thoughts:

1. EOs are of course not permanent. They are valid until another EO or a legislation puts an end to it. However, in politics, it is very difficult to take things away once they are given (prime example - DACA - it is NEVER getting repealed, also ACA after the implementation). Even if the EO gets challenged and defeated, no future president will take 5 million EADs and hundreds of thousands of GCs away - they will be grandfathered into whatever new system emerges. Look at the same sex marriage thing - all the folks who married in California before Prop 8, their marriages continued to be valid despite SSM being outlawed following Prop 8.
2. Obama is frustrated with the congress and is has now gone in attack mode. I have been amazed at the change in him in recent speeches - its like he is running for office again. He is looking to pick a fight.
3. Its a question of legacy - after the mid-term all focus will shift to the 2016 race - so he has to make his mark in next few months. If he manages to clear 5 million undocumented into legal EAD rolls and clear EB backlog by whatever means - Latinos and Asians will hail him no matter what. I will personally be a lifelong Dem voter and donor - and I am sure many many more.
4. Obama knows that Republicans will shout to high heavens at an EO - small or big - and one of the purpose of the whole exercise is to bait them into overreacting, impeaching, just getting into even more anto-latino, anti-immigrant mode. So it makes sense for Obama to go all in even if the legal rational is a little dubious.
5. Doing something for legal immigration balances the charge of Latino-pandering and brings business money in support of the EO. So there will be a legal immigration angle - how big is something remains to be seen.

I hope Obama takes a grand stand. We will get to know pretty soon.

[moon80]

News slowly picking up again:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-considers-proposals-to-sharply-increase-legal-immigration/2014/08/27/f808ffdc-2d23-11e4-bb9b-997ae96fad33_story.html

[migo79]

of course Q, the question is will he do it :-)

in the WH Spox briefing today he said / reiterated on a question on immigration that the Pres. will act on a ***Comprehensive*** immigration reform before summer end.

another article on USA today this morning also state he is considering the technical change in the visa count.
bboth Washignotn Post and USA Today are both saying that by doing this he is ensuring het get the business support by his side which they are usually pro GOP.

i'm cautiously optimistic :-)

[imdeng]

From today's USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/08/27/5-things-obama-immigration-review/14289613/


Business groups are pressing the White House to change some regulations that govern foreigners trying to enter and work in the USA. For example, a technical change in federal regulations could free up hundreds of thousands of green cards for foreign workers. Obama could also change a rule that restricts the spouses of foreigners working in high-tech fields from working while in the country.

I am not sure which technical change they are referring to. Has to be one (or both) of Visa Recapture and Dependent Counting.

[qbloguser]

Oh Yes, How can we forget this other party called GOP?:D

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/gop-talks-shutdown-thwart-obamas-action-immigration-n190696




From today's USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/08/27/5-things-obama-immigration-review/14289613/



I am not sure which technical change they are referring to. Has to be one (or both) of Visa Recapture and Dependent Counting.

[Jonty Rhodes]

It is all over media now. Executive Action was supposed to come before Labor Day but now it is supposed to come after President returns from Estonia and Wales. That would be after September 7. The question is how far the President would go in his EO for legal immigrants.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/216089-wh-shutdown-threat-wont-deter-action-on-immigration

Not that I am very hopeful of anything significant happening for legals, it was still interesting to read what Mr. Bo Cooper (Former General Counsel for INS) said here.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-considers-proposals-to-sharply-increase-legal-immigration/2014/08/27/f808ffdc-2d23-11e4-bb9b-997ae96fad33_story.html

Several immigration lawyers said Tuesday that U.S. legal statutes governing the green card limits are ambiguous about whether siblings, spouses and children must be counted. Bo Cooper, who served as general counsel for what was then the Immigration and Naturalization Service from 1999 to 2003, called the statutes among the “messiest” areas of immigration law.

“In that situation, the courts have traditionally given the executive branch a great deal of deference in interpreting the statute and supplying the answer as long as it is reasonable,” Cooper said. “The administration, no matter what it’s doing this fall, will try to make sure it hews to its legal authority. The question is how willing they’ll find themselves able to move into space that the statute gives them.”

What I derive from Mr. Cooper's statement is that dependents can be exempted from the numerical limits and only Principal applicant can be counted and this is an ambiguous area where the law can be interpreted differently.

Lets see what happens.

[migo79]

He was suppose to announce the actions before Congress comes back second week of august, he still has some time though

and now we only have to wait and see if he will do it.
Media coverage even in FoxNews are saying that this GC count are the least controversial since it has big support by community and business.

but giving the fact that news coverage for Visa recapture gone and the focus is on GC count, makes it feel there is something coming up

[CleanSock]

Is Obama talking about postponing the EO to after mid term elections?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/28/us-usa-immigration-obama-idUSKBN0GS2LP20140828

[nbk1976]

This would changes everything: Get the USCIS "off our backs" once I-485 is filed. Even if the date retrogresses, as long as the I-485 application was bona fide and gets pre-approved, all benefits of the GC should be given: easy switching between jobs, even change of career to a different job, starting ones own company, and unrestricted travel, etc.

[dec2010]

FWIW, IMO - GOP threat to attach border bill/EO to budget vote is a credible threat/opportunity.
>> either Pres does not want gov shut down,hence delay EO till/after midterm and talk of hope
>> or he wants GOP to shutdown gov closer to midterm elections (considering GOP is poised to take senate/even 535 is suggesting so)

my guess is - WH is looking at poll numbers and read on polls will decide 'when' part of the EO.

[mohan_jgd]

No guarentees that EO may come in Sept. May be postponed too.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_OBAMA_IMMIGRATION?SITE=AP

[Jonty Rhodes]

Is Obama talking about postponing the EO to after mid term elections?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/28/us-usa-immigration-obama-idUSKBN0GS2LP20140828

You never know. It may come before September 21 or after midterm elections or may never come at all. At the end of the day, they are politicians and their moves depend on whether they can get any political benefits out of them or not. They will do what suits them politically. That applies throughout the political spectrum (both democrats and GOP).

[migo79]

it would be really embarrassment for POTUS to speak out on rose garden defining a date and then the date pass and he do nothing.
so something must be announced in September for sure but what it is that's we don't know!

[gten20]

Politicians are really thick skinned to be embarrassed easily. The no. one priority is getting re-elected and controlling power. Everything revolves or works around this priority.

If Obama wont act before mid-terms, he will find a good reason to blame republicans or blame a situation (ISIS, border surge, or something else). I think he will only act when he can get max. benefits.. like 2012 DACA. When he says "We are considering everything", that everything is the timing or situation to get max. benefit.


it would be really embarrassment for POTUS to speak out on rose garden defining a date and then the date pass and he do nothing.
so something must be announced in September for sure but what it is that's we don't know!

[imdeng]

Obama plays the long game. He is going to bait Republicans into overreacting and doing something like shutting down the govt again. Republicans will oblige, they will likely also benefit during 2014 mid terms and then the whole thing will come back to bite them big time in 2016 onwards.

I think most folks do not get the magnitude of the coming demographic storm. Last year just about 50% of babies born in the country were other-than-non-hispanic-white. Public school enrollments already are minority-majority. We are living in the most interesting demographic period in this country.

Politically, the advanced warnings are FL, VA, NC and CO. All four will go blue in 2016 and there is no way in hell that Republicans can win the presidency without ALL of those. None of these are going to turn without Republicans getting *some* minority support - and Obama is baiting them into going a whole generation without getting any significant minority support.

[gcq]

Politicians are really thick skinned to be embarrassed easily. The no. one priority is getting re-elected and controlling power. Everything revolves or works around this priority.

If Obama wont act before mid-terms, he will find a good reason to blame republicans or blame a situation (ISIS, border surge, or something else). I think he will only act when he can get max. benefits.. like 2012 DACA. When he says "We are considering everything", that everything is the timing or situation to get max. benefit.

To add to this point, Obama/Democrats were given an ultimatum during the elections that if he won't act on immigration, hispanics would stay away from the polls. At that point Pres had nothing to lose, only to gain from DACA.

[Jonty Rhodes]

it would be really embarrassment for POTUS to speak out on rose garden defining a date and then the date pass and he do nothing.
so something must be announced in September for sure but what it is that's we don't know!

I just said in the previous post and gten20 also has mentioned in his post, that at the end of the day, they are politicians and they will only take actions when they can get political benefits (e.g. getting re-elected) out of them.

Do you think that President issued an EO on DACA because of his deep sympathy for those children? No. It was done because their extended families were basically a Democratic Vote Bank and he had nothing to lose by issuing EO on DACA. He would have gained only by doing that which was exactly he did. Yes, ideologically he supported those children staying in US but that was not the only reason because ideologically he also supports legal immigration but has he done anything for that so far?

Now, look at this news. He is reverting back on his self-imposed deadline. Now, he wants more time on immigration. As I have mentioned in one of my previous posts last week, the first EO could be coming on Border Security. This is exactly he is talking about. That is because incumbent Democrats may face tough time during election. President obviously does not want to take the risk of losing Senate. So now the news is that EO on Border Security may come first, followed by Mid-term elections, followed by possible EO for illegals depending on the results of mid-term elections and situation at that time. We are potentially talking about November end or December, which means nothing will happen till Mid-January before Martin Luther King Day.

Now, suddenly there is no talk on legal immigration at all so it is highly possible that absolutely nothing may happen for us. No EO, no Bill. Both parties will continue to blame each other.

I wish I am proved wrong but this is an old game that we have seen many times. So I have absolutely zero hopes. I would not be so optimistic and keep high expectations from these thick skinned politicians.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-obama-immigration-policy-20140829-story.html

[kkruna]

To get any benefit out of the EOs, he needs to act before the elections - probably close to the elections to not let Republican shape the debate in vulnerable constituencies. May be he will start with Border issue, then take up Legal immigration, and then take up the last part.

I think his talks about "if Congress doesn't do anything..." is a red herring - meant more for the past than for future congresss action.

[Jonty Rhodes]

To get any benefit out of the EOs, he needs to act before the elections - probably close to the elections to not let Republican shape the debate in vulnerable constituencies. May be he will start with Border issue, then take up Legal immigration, and then take up the last part.

I think his talks about "if Congress doesn't do anything..." is a red herring - meant more for the past than for future congresss action.

I do not agree with that. President does not need to act before elections. In fact, he actually does not need to act at all before 2016 Elections. If he does not do anything right now, he most likely will be able to save the Senate majority. House on the other side, will retain Republican majority after November elections.

In a nutshell, illegals have hope only from one party - i.e. Democrats, for getting something done for them. Illegals know that GOP in its current form won't do anything for them. So even if President doesn't do anything for illegals, they will rave and rant but ultimately have to fall back on Democrats for any kind of relief.

It is like having only one doctor in town (President) so regardless how the doctor is, people (illegals) will have to get treated with whatever they have and if the doctor (President) decides not to treat them for 2 months, they don't have a choice but to wait for those 2 months, especially when the other option is to leave the town (leave US).

So illegals will take out rallies and criticize the President but ultimately will fall back upon him for any relief. Hispanic votes are not going anywhere. They will vote Democrats only just in hope of getting something done. That bodes out perfectly for the President and Democrats in general. If they do EOs before 2016 elections, Hispanic will vote in hoards for Democrats.

When it comes to legals, we make a very small community and are not a substantial vote bank. Nothing will be done for us separately. We will be always piggybacking on illegals whether we like it or not. Yes, both parties agree when it comes to legal immigration and still we are being held hostage to the amnesty debate but that's the reality.

Now, WH wants national debate on this issue. See how the President is slowly creating an exit route for himself. First delay EO, there by allowing opposition to raise awareness on the issue, which in turn will create more opposition, which ultimately will give him an opportunity to not do anything and blame GOP for not doing anything for immigration. This is an old game and everyone can see through it.

http://dailycaller.com/2014/08/29/white-house-national-debate-needed-before-obama-amnesty/

[kkruna]

Probably he will still do something low voltage to save face and to project some continuity. Question remains how does he get dems to vote in larger numbers in Nov.

[aquatican]

So when there is a drumbeat of imminent executive action keep in mind that the white house pollsters are actively sensing public sentiment, issue response and taking feedback from the democrats as to what potential repercussions in their districts. As we all know now the "Summer Deadline" wasn't really a deadline. Executive action will now be pushed past elections ( 50% + probability).



I do not agree with that. President does not need to act before elections. In fact, he actually does not need to act at all before 2016 Elections. If he does not do anything right now, he most likely will be able to save the Senate majority. House on the other side, will retain Republican majority after November elections.


In a nutshell, illegals have hope only from one party - i.e. Democrats, for getting something done for them. Illegals know that GOP in its current form won't do anything for them. So even if President doesn't do anything for illegals, they will rave and rant but ultimately have to fall back on Democrats for any kind of relief.

It is like having only one doctor in town (President) so regardless how the doctor is, people (illegals) will have to get treated with whatever they have and if the doctor (President) decides not to treat them for 2 months, they don't have a choice but to wait for those 2 months, especially when the other option is to leave the town (leave US).

So illegals will take out rallies and criticize the President but ultimately will fall back upon him for any relief. Hispanic votes are not going anywhere. They will vote Democrats only just in hope of getting something done. That bodes out perfectly for the President and Democrats in general. If they do EOs before 2016 elections, Hispanic will vote in hoards for Democrats.

When it comes to legals, we make a very small community and are not a substantial vote bank. Nothing will be done for us separately. We will be always piggybacking on illegals whether we like it or not. Yes, both parties agree when it comes to legal immigration and still we are being held hostage to the amnesty debate but that's the reality.

Now, WH wants national debate on this issue. See how the President is slowly creating an exit route for himself. First delay EO, there by allowing opposition to raise awareness on the issue, which in turn will create more opposition, which ultimately will give him an opportunity to not do anything and blame GOP for not doing anything for immigration. This is an old game and everyone can see through it.

http://dailycaller.com/2014/08/29/white-house-national-debate-needed-before-obama-amnesty/

[gten20]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/02/why-obama-won-t-act-on-immigration.html

[idiotic]

Now, Boehner says next year. He never changes his word year after year.. It's always next year :)

If republicans take Senate and House (which looks increasingly likely), Sen. Grassley will be at helm of Judiciary committee and with Rep. Steve King on other side, we have bright reform coming up for both legal and illegal :)

We would be happy to hang on to our H1B visas, if they still exist after the republican reform. (http://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/grassley-and-durbin-introduce-first-bipartisan-h-1b-l-1-visa-reform-bill-protect)

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2014/09/02/Boehner-Obama-Could-Get-Immigration-Reform-Next-Year

[imdeng]

There is a very interesting dynamic going on. I would recommend this piece for a good analysis of the Boehner's comments: http://hotair.com/archives/2014/09/03/boehner-to-obama-immigration-reform-might-still-be-on-the-table-next-year-you-know/

The fight is not for whether some kind of immigration action will happen - fight is for who gets the credit. In fact, chances of a watered down immigration reform passing the republican house/senate is higher because then they can claim credit. Obama, OTOH, would like to get this done via EO after the midterms so that Dems get the credit in 2016.

BTW - I don't think it is happening before the midterms. Seems like they want the senate elections to play out.


Now, Boehner says next year. He never changes his word year after year.. It's always next year :)

If republicans take Senate and House (which looks increasingly likely), Sen. Grassley will be at helm of Judiciary committee and with Rep. Steve King on other side, we have bright reform coming up for both legal and illegal :)

We would be happy to hang on to our H1B visas, if they still exist after the republican reform. (http://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/grassley-and-durbin-introduce-first-bipartisan-h-1b-l-1-visa-reform-bill-protect)

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2014/09/02/Boehner-Obama-Could-Get-Immigration-Reform-Next-Year

[idiotic]

There is a very interesting dynamic going on. I would recommend this piece for a good analysis of the Boehner's comments: http://hotair.com/archives/2014/09/03/boehner-to-obama-immigration-reform-might-still-be-on-the-table-next-year-you-know/

The fight is not for whether some kind of immigration action will happen - fight is for who gets the credit. In fact, chances of a watered down immigration reform passing the republican house/senate is higher because then they can claim credit. Obama, OTOH, would like to get this done via EO after the midterms so that Dems get the credit in 2016.

Lame duck session after midterm is the only possibility "if Obama ever wants it to get it done" or leave the issue as playground for next presidential election.
I am very skeptical about republican version of immigration reform with all anti immigrant hawks writing that bill. We would be grateful if they don't harm our existing guest worker visas.


BTW - I don't think it is happening before the midterms. Seems like they want the senate elections to play out.

Agreed. Obama's recent comments that this process takes time made it official.

[PD2008AUG25]

The fight is not for whether some kind of immigration action will happen - fight is for who gets the credit. In fact, chances of a watered down immigration reform passing the republican house/senate is higher because then they can claim credit. Obama, OTOH, would like to get this done via EO after the midterms so that Dems get the credit in 2016.



I think this is wishful thinking. I don't think Republicans are at all interested in taking credit for immigration reform. I don't think anything can get passed through Republican controlled house. If they take Senate, it will only bolster their belief that they can take white house without any kind of Immigration reform. House and Senate are both likely to get only more radicalized after election. Recent Boehner comments are nothing more than effort at delaying or sabotaging Obama's EO. If Obama delays EO until after election, there will be voices to give new Congress "a chance" to solve issue via legislation. That process (a re-run of a CIR bill) will take up entire 2015 without any action. And of course, 2016 being election year, same Dems will come out opposing any action as it will hurt their chances.

Pessimistic, of course. But no amount of pessimism is enough when it comes to Immigration related legislative changes.

[geterdone]

Looks like he is thinking about EO- now that that does not mean there will be something for the EB community

Obama: Immigration announcement 'soon'

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/09/05/obama-immigration-election-day/15130029/

[kkruna]

A good recap of options - feasible or not:

http://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/NFAP-Policy-Brief.Executive-Action.Sept-2014.pdf

[anuprab]

there has to be something for EB community, he cant do illegal EO all the way.


Looks like he is thinking about EO- now that that does not mean there will be something for the EB community

Obama: Immigration announcement 'soon'

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/09/05/obama-immigration-election-day/15130029/

[yarlii]

EB-2 and EB-3 May Become Current under President’s Proposed Executive Action

By Rahul Reddy & Emily Neumann, Attorneys at Law

Over a year ago, we wrote about a few provisions in the proposed Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill that specifically dealt with the Employment-Based green card backlogs. Of course, that bill stalled in the House of Representatives, but the ideas for reform may still be alive in the form of Executive Action by President Barack Obama. In recent weeks, White House officials have been talking with business leaders about what should be included in the President’s plan on immigration. A range of fixes have been discussed and signals indicate that action may be taken by the end of the summer or mid-September.

Two expected provisions that would have an immediate positive effect on those waiting in the Employment-Based green card backlog are:

1. Stop counting family members
2. Recapture unused employment-based visas

Under the current immigration system, a professional with his wife and two children currently draws down four green cards from a given employment-based immigration category. If family members are no longer counted, then only a single green card, one for the primary applicant, would count against the quota. This could effectively double or possibly even triple the number of workers who are able to obtain the green card.

But, the provision with the highest potential impact would be the proposal to allow a recapture of all unused employment-based visas from 1992 to the present. During the 90’s and early 2000’s, many green cards went unused each year because of processing delays and the seven percent cap. This led to an estimated 400,000 green cards that went unused, which would now become available.
Both of these provisions were included in the Senate’s Comprehensive Bill and neither of them would require any increase in the congressionally-mandated limits. That means that chances of these changes actually being included in any Executive Action are relatively high.

These two provisions would translate into the possibility that priority dates may become current for all of EB2 and possibly even EB3. This impacts not just those that have already started the process and are currently waiting for the date to become current, but also those who have not yet begun. Even those starting the labor certification process today would likely be able to file the I-140 and I-485 concurrently immediately upon approval of the labor certification. If there is no wait for filing an adjustment of status, it opens up the possibility for some to avoid obtaining an H-1B visa. For example, an F-1 student with 12 months of OPT plus 17 months of STEM extension could conceivably obtain a labor certification, file the I-140 and I-485, and obtain an EAD before the OPT period has ended, thus eliminating the need for an H-1B.

The practical impact of the proposed changes would greatly benefit citizens of one nation in particular – India. Currently, the number of employment-based green cards given to Indians each year is capped to an arbitrarily low amount, just seven percent of the 140,000 total. Despite a booming population of Indians with advanced degrees and experience in high tech fields such as computer science and engineering, the seven percent cap applies uniformly to each individual country. For Indians, the cap has created a backlog that can keep immigrants waiting 11 years for a green card under the current system. While 140,000 visas may seem like plenty, after applying the seven percent cap for any single country, Indians start with just 2,800 green cards each year for each of the EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 categories, respectively. Though Indians are now allowed to exceed the seven percent cap when visas in EB-1 and EB-2 go unused by other countries, the additional visas are too few and do little to ease waiting times. With the two provisions above, the 11 year backlog could be eliminated for Indians.

At this time we can only speculate about when these provisions would be implemented. Given the likelihood that the President may act by mid-September, it is possible that we may see the benefit beginning with the October 1st visa bulletin. That would be an excellent time to make the change as the 2015 Fiscal Year begins on October 1, 2014. That is when next year’s visas begin being distributed.


http://www.rnlawgroup.com/news/428-eb-2-and-eb-3-may-become-current-under-president-s-proposed-executive-action#.VAXWl8VdUmt

[iatiam]

I want to believe that all these news stories will turn out to be true. But in the end any one with a head above the neck knows that all that the President will do is to extend DACA which will ensure that Democrats get the hispanic votes. He will then blame the republicans for obstruction and show up in a few meetings (like the FB and LinkedIn townhall meetings) and tell the audience (majority will be Asians) that he cares for them and will give GCs for all. This is a cheap political move and has been done before and will be done again. Democrats had both house and Senate for four years, house, senate and WH for two years and nothing got done. Expecting them to do some thing is stupidity. FWIW Republicans favor legal immigration. HR 3012 was brought by two Republicans (Chavetz being one of them). Rep Issa proposed a bill which moves all the DV visas to legal quote. Issas bill was shot down because Democrats thought that we are denying the poor people from all over the country a chance at the American dream. Except rogue players like Grassley, I trust Republicans more.

Before you throw stones at me, remember that I am not making a political statement. I am just calling out the truth as some one who has been (and is still) waiting for more than a decade to get my GC.

Iatiam

[cursedguy]

Hard to believe that Obama will do anything for Legal immigrants - He has been a BIG 'NO SHOW' so far .. mostly because Indians (the people who will benefit most ) are not a traditional democratic vote bank. Although this has changed a lot in 2012. Another factor to consider is most Indians live in/near Metros which have been in blue states to start with.

[seattlet]

Lets not forget. This president always had the opportunity to do something for Legals (Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, larry page, larry ellison all met him in 2010 and asked him to do something for legals in Bay area president meet. President told them that until something is done for Illegal children it is not possible to do much. But in 2012 he gave DACA to those kids but left legals in limbo). My honest opinion, he doesnt want to give anything for legals. On the other hand, by twisting harry Reid's hands he had made sure most bills with only legal immigration coming from Congress, will not pass senate (or even be considered for a vote).

I think Obama believes that legals are taking away decent paying jobs from Americans (which in a way can be true especially if you look at any PERM / H1 labor applications and the way things get manipulated to ensure there is a chance of success . In case of H1, most Indian IT companies chronically understate the experience and skills required for the position so that they would fall to cheaper wage category per DOL. For PERM most folks do the whole process not with intent to look for a qualifyng american candidate, but hoping not to find one )

If the past is any indicator Obama will likely play spoilsport than help legals. Sorry but that is what the past indicates.

[cursedguy]

I agree with seattlet this will be a expansion to DACA.

[qesehmk]

I think people should really forget there will be any EO. This seems like just a part of politics being played on the eve of congress elections.

For the one - YOU - who is suffering - you will do yourself favor if you assume nothing is going to happen. And then if anything happens then that's a bonus.

[nbk1976]

I never understood why employment-based green card should have a country cap. If the rationale is that a certain skill is unavailable locally, and hence foreign skill is being imported,--how does it matter if the person came from China or Singapore? Only family-based immigration and diversity-visas should have country quotas.

[amulchandra]

I think people should really forget there will be any EO. This seems like just a part of politics being played on the eve of congress elections.

For the one - YOU - who is suffering - you will do yourself favor if you assume nothing is going to happen. And then if anything happens then that's a bonus.

Your are soooooo correct. WH officials announced today that EO will be postponed until after November midterms.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/07/us/politics/obama-said-to-delay-executive-action-on-immigration.html

All hype and no action.

[cursedguy]

Hard to believe that Obama will do anything for Legal immigrants - He has been a BIG 'NO SHOW' so far .. mostly because Indians (the people who will benefit most ) are not a traditional democratic vote bank. Although this has changed a lot in 2012. Another factor to consider is most Indians live in/near Metros which have been in blue states to start with.


As expected NO SHOW again. He does not have the will to do anything for Legal immigrants.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/apnewsbreak-obama-delay-immigration-action-25312272

[seattlet]

The best case scenario for legals might be republicans winning senate. That
Way they might pass legals only bill which will put obama in fix. But then if republicans get senate we have list of social issues that will get religious tint. Rock and hard place.

[qesehmk]

The best case scenario for legals might be republicans winning senate. That
Way they might pass legals only bill which will put obama in fix. But then if republicans get senate we have list of social issues that will get religious tint. Rock and hard place.

seattlet - I would disagree with that. The only way EB immigrants will get any relief is piggybacking on CIR. Republicans will not do CIR. Bush Jr tried doing that. He had GOP votes in both houses. McCain stood by him but it went nowhere.

The problem with EB is it has absolutely no real backers. The vote bank is too small for Obama or ANY other politician to care. The corporations love H1B but they don't care about GCs. The corporations actually dont like GCs because then they lose their H1B slave. So obviously GOP is not going to support GCs.

Mark Zuckerberg is the only guy who is for EB. But I am not sure I understand quite well what exactly his interest is.

Anyway ... but to summarize - given that there are no backers for EB (GOP or Dems or Corporates) the only way EB can get any relief is via piggybacking on CIR.

[PD2008AUG25]

The best case scenario for legals might be republicans winning senate. That
Way they might pass legals only bill which will put obama in fix. But then if republicans get senate we have list of social issues that will get religious tint. Rock and hard place.

I don't think that's true. If Republicans wanted to do that, they already had many chances. HR3012 is one example. Bill to provide 50000 GCs for STEM graduates is another one. The later was poisoned by eliminating diversity lottery. That one would really have put Democrats in bind by breaking tech-bussiness/latino alliance. Fact is just like pretty much every group, Republicans are not monolith. There are some who supports increasing legal immigration, some don't want any change and some totally oppose all immigration. If Senate goes republican, with Grassely, Sessions and Cruz in Judiciary committe can't expect to pass anything from Senate which doesn't have poison pill inviting Obama's veto.

Let's hope Obama still issues EO after November elections *and* it has something for legals.

[seattlet]

My concern is an EO if issued after republicans get both senate and congress in nov will be ill timed. Obama would have less moral authority to pass one when democrats no longer hold either congress and senate. Republicans will definitely sue such an EO and with a conservative majority in us supreme court Obama might just lose his last weapon.

I dont think republicans would hurt legals more than dems. For what i know if mitt romney had bern president legals would probably been better off since he seemed to be staunch supporter of legal immigration and green cards for legals

[qesehmk]

I think PDFeb said it very nicely. No party is a monolith. There are intersections of interests. So you will find both reps and dems that are for and against immigration.

Unfortunately EB doesnt stand at any cross roads. See that's the problem.

That's why I said EB's best bet is riding on CIR and i think Obama will do something post election because
1) Then he is not afraid of anybody in his own party or in GOP
2) He will be desperate to do something that will solidify his legacy.
3/ Immigration will be the last thing he can now influence between Nov 2014 - May 2015. Post May 2015 he becomes a lame duck president.

While EB is not large constituency to influence him - he will take care of them because EB is not where GOP is going to oppose him.

[Immigo]

While it may be a moot point, it would be interesting to know what recommendations reached Obama's table (as this may explain why he took a U turn in less than 24 hrs).

[idiotic]

Isn't this a lie?

When pressed on the politics behind his move, Obama said it wasn't because he wants Democrats to maintain control of the Senate.

"That's not the reason," Obama said.

Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/216869-obama-blames-border-crisis-for-shifting-politics-midsummer#ixzz3CazBZ3c0
Follow us: @thehill on Twitter | TheHill on Facebook

[idiotic]

The best case scenario for legals might be republicans winning senate. That
Way they might pass legals only bill which will put obama in fix. But then if republicans get senate we have list of social issues that will get religious tint. Rock and hard place.

What is the republican proposal you are talking about? I have not heard about any republican bill which will get Sen. Grassley's and Rep. Steve King's vote apart from repealing DACA / Eliminating birth right citizenship and all the glorious anti immigrant proposals at numbersusa.com ?

Obama is much better than Grassley and Steve King. If Republicans get control of Senate, guest worker visas policy is "come .. work.. earn.. pay tax and then go back to home country". In other words, net Green card neutral solutions.

[qesehmk]

If Republicans get control of Senate, guest worker visas policy is "come .. work.. earn.. pay tax and then go back to home country".

Extremely well said!

Look .... regardless of your and mine political affiliation (and of course all of us have a good reason why we like or don't a particular party), it is very crucial to understand that AFA GOP is concerned - the above sums up their immigration stance. They like slave and cheap labor. They don't want permanent immigrants.

[aquatican]

Not surprising. He actually does not like immigration and has mentioned it in his book. But he sure loves illegals. ( probably their votes).
honestly the reason we have had no movement in legal immigration is entirely his doing. he has held up minor improvements in legal immigration repeatedly to get his illegal amnesty agenda pushed forward.



As expected NO SHOW again. He does not have the will to do anything for Legal immigrants.


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/apnewsbreak-obama-delay-immigration-action-25312272

[cursedguy]

Not surprising. He actually does not like immigration and has mentioned it in his book. But he sure loves illegals. ( probably their votes).
honestly the reason we have had no movement in legal immigration is entirely his doing. he has held up minor improvements in legal immigration repeatedly to get his illegal amnesty agenda pushed forward.


Another sad thing about Indian EB3 category is, in the near future there will be a second generation of H1B's meaning the kids of H1b's who will graduate and/or become (Adults) and either need to find a Job that sponsors H1b or Leave the country ?

[idiotic]

he has held up minor improvements in legal immigration repeatedly to get his illegal amnesty agenda pushed forward.

You mean HR3012 ?

[imdeng]

Well - spillover to EB3I is coming. I think we are going to be gloriously surprised how fast that line will move in about an year. There have been reports of EB2C downgrading to EB3C. We might reach a similar scenario in 4-5 years for EB2I->EB3I. Wouldn't that be something!!

Another sad thing about Indian EB3 category is, in the near future there will be a second generation of H1B's meaning the kids of H1b's who will graduate and/or become (Adults) and either need to find a Job that sponsors H1b or Leave the country ?

[PD2008AUG25]

Not surprising. He actually does not like immigration and has mentioned it in his book. But he sure loves illegals. ( probably their votes).
honestly the reason we have had no movement in legal immigration is entirely his doing. he has held up minor improvements in legal immigration repeatedly to get his illegal amnesty agenda pushed forward.

I think blame should be on Democrats and not on Obama for holding up Legal immigration. While he didn't explicitly said he would veto HR3012, he did say that he wanted comprehensive bill.

As a counterpoint, consider H4 EAD rule. There isn't anything to gain politically by fixing that. At least someone in that administration wants to help legals without spending too much political capital.

[seattlet]

Even H4 rule is being done by this administration only because the legal immigration lobby folks had spent so much capital on obama and they want something. For the folks who believe that republicans are hurting legals, I think if Silicon valley had spent the lobby money on Republicans, the result would have been much better. Atleast republicans would do stuff for the money spent (compared to obama who had raised millions of dollars in bay area alone for his election efforts all the while promising folks to do better on legal immigration and so far hasnt moved his little finger)

If republicans had got a millions of dollars from silicon valley they would have probably created an A380 shuttle service to india with green card on arrival :)


A portion of democrats (trade unions) are also opposed to any immigration just like some republicans. democrat Congressmen and senators from blue collar territories might pretty much not like any immigration changes to protect their vote base else they stand to lose against republicans.

My take is Obama hasnt done anything in 6 years, will probably lose both congress and senate to republicans in november and at that point, would just blame republicans rather than take any action. Instead if the legal immigration lobby choses to spend its money wisely on republicans, they do stand to definitely gain something

[aquatican]

He did block HR3012 though that was joint effort by Democrats and Obama.
For Obama the illegals are a much better bet because they promise votes and future democrats.
I read his book before the elections and he actually has a bias against educated immigrants who have high skills. ( Go figure).
The reason he has looked into the issue is because of business lobby and to soften the blow of amnesty to 5+ millions.

Democrats will always hold legal immigration hostage to illegal immigration because they have the most go gain from hispanic bloc.
Legal immigrant community which needs relief is around ~1 Million. Illegals 15+ million.



You mean HR3012 ?

[iatiam]

He did block HR3012 though that was joint effort by Democrats and Obama.
For Obama the illegals are a much better bet because they promise votes and future democrats.
I read his book before the elections and he actually has a bias against educated immigrants who have high skills. ( Go figure).
The reason he has looked into the issue is because of business lobby and to soften the blow of amnesty to 5+ millions.

Democrats will always hold legal immigration hostage to illegal immigration because they have the most go gain from hispanic bloc.
Legal immigrant community which needs relief is around ~1 Million. Illegals 15+ million.

Just to jog people's memory a little bit, the AC21 rule and massive re-capture was done at a time when Republicans were controlling both senate and house. Of course Bill Clinton was forthcoming to work with them to get it passed (unlike Obama who just pays lip service).

If any one had listened to republican primaries in 2012 you could hear candidates like Romney and Huntsman speaking favorably for legal immigration. Media completely ignored these and chose to focus on Romney's "self-deportation" comment. Obama also played his cards properly and gave EADs to all dreamers while people like us who got in the line and waited decades were cheated. Now the country is in a mess with massive illegal immigration from south of the border, a lot of americans were regretting their decision to vote for Obama. Oh well, hind sight is always 20/20

[gs1968]

To iatiam

There was a post a few days ago which stated the wide diversity amongst Republicans also as it is with Democrats. Much of legislative success depends on the initiative and enthusiasm of Committee chairman especially in the Senate where the rules are more convoluted.The AC21 rule was under the Chairmanship of Sen.Orrin Hatch who worked hard to make this happen. The upcoming elections if they were to go the Republican way would place Sen.Grassley and Sen.Sessions at the helm of the Judiciary committee and both of them are unlikely to be sympathetic to EB visas.Sen.Hatch will most likely take over as Chairman of the Finance committee as he has never served in this position while Sen.Grassley has already done so.Hence it is not the parties in power but the players that matter.

[gten20]

Prediction: CIR will be a hot topic for 2016 election.. :( I fear Obama has no political gain to do anything right after mid-terms. He and fellow Democrats will milk it in 2016 to help get another Dem. President in white house.

I hope Obama said he is going to delay EO to get republicans to work with him to avoid govt. shutdown and once Republicans do that, he will sign EO on immigration before Nov. mid-terms. This is far-fetched, but I cannot see a reason why he would act on EO after mid-terms. Boehner has already started preparing his new year resolution - CIR "might" possible in 201X ( current value of X = 5, prev. values - 4,3). After mid-terms he will ask the president to give the new congress a chance before issuing EO and this will play till 2016 elections. GOP will want to pass some immigration bills too in 2015-16 to help rebuild their image before 2016 election.

What are your thoughts Gurus? What will Obama gain and why will he act right after mid-terms?

[idiotic]

He did block HR3012 though that was joint effort by Democrats and Obama.
For Obama the illegals are a much better bet because they promise votes and future democrats.
I read his book before the elections and he actually has a bias against educated immigrants who have high skills. ( Go figure).
The reason he has looked into the issue is because of business lobby and to soften the blow of amnesty to 5+ millions.

Democrats will always hold legal immigration hostage to illegal immigration because they have the most go gain from hispanic bloc.
Legal immigrant community which needs relief is around ~1 Million. Illegals 15+ million.

Republican policy on immigration is clearly stated clearly by Mr. King -- "We have to pick the best dogs". who is not very different from Sen . Grassley who will head Judiciary committee if republicans take senate.
If you believe these people are better than Obama when it comes to immigration policy, good luck to you. Take a look at numbersusa and FAIR report cards of congressmen and senators and count number of republicans and democrats who "scored well" with them.

They are not some 2 random congressmen and Senators to brush aside as irrelevant republicans. These are people who are the real watchdogs and responsible for actual death of HR3012 (Credit should be to Sen. Grassley) and death of CIR in 113th(Credit goes to Rep. King. He won the battle which was lost in Senate by Sen. Sessions and Sen. Grassley).

Democrats hold everyone hostage because it is difficult to get around this strong anti immigrant republican lobby. It is only increasingly getting clear congress after congress. 113th was just recent example. I do not have any problem in 1 million waiting for relief of 15 million so that entire population gets relief.

This is my last. We have to agree to disagree.

[idiotic]

If republicans had got a millions of dollars from silicon valley they would have probably created an A380 shuttle service to india with green card on arrival :)



Simply speechless. No point in discussing further.

[idiotic]

Simply speechless. No point in discussing further.

A- (0% of peer group)
King, Steve (Rep. - 4th) R - IA 86%
Sessions, Jeff (Sen.) R - AL 86%
B+ (4% of peer group)
Brooks, Mo (Rep. - 5th) R - AL 85%
Cruz, Ted (Sen.) R - TX 85%
Grassley, Charles (Sen.) R - IA 85%
Lee, Mike (Sen.) R - UT 85%
Black, Diane (Rep. - 6th) R - TN 84%
Enzi, Michael (Sen.) R - WY 84%
Nunnelee, Alan (Rep. - 1st) R - MS 84%
Vitter, David (Sen.) R - LA 84%
Barrasso, John (Sen.) R - WY 83%
Boozman, John (Sen.) R - AR 83%
Crapo, Michael (Sen.) R - ID 83%
Gingrey, Phil (Rep. - 11th) R - GA 83%
Inhofe, James (Sen.) R - OK 83%
Roberts, Pat (Sen.) R - KS 83%
Scott, Tim (Sen.) R - SC 83%
Shelby, Richard (Sen.) R - AL 83%
Blackburn, Marsha (Rep. - 7th) R - TN 82%
Jones, Walter (Rep. - 3rd) R - NC 82%
Marchant, Kenny (Rep. - 24th) R - TX 82%
Risch, Jim (Sen.) R - ID 82%
Barletta, Louis (Rep. - 11th) R - PA 81%
Flores, William (Rep. - 17th) R - TX 81%
McClintock, Tom (Rep. - 4th) R - CA 81%

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/my/tools/grades/list/0/CONGRESS/US/A/Grade/Active

[qesehmk]

I think people who pin hopes on GOP are suffering from stockhome syndrome. You may find it harsh assessment but sooner or later you will realize that most of the racist anti immigrant folks live on the GOP side. If you think just because you earn double or triple six figures or more that makes you one of them you are mistaken. Just look at Jewish community that uses GOP for all sorts of things but in the end they do vote democrat.

My objective is not to debate party politics here. But the point is you have to make an effort to find ANY pro-immigrant sentiment on GOP side. They don't even want Emp based immigration. They do want H1s. But H1s is not same as GCs.

Finally GOP has become rabid anti-immigrant party even as the country is becoming majority minority country. Their stance is hardening because of the lunatic right wing they have. Those who remember amnesty under Reagan must understand that Ronald Reagan's GOP didn't have a tea party wing.

[imdeng]

Lets not get too far into the party politics discussion. It does not add any value to this forum.

[qesehmk]

Yes imdeng. The key thing i wanted to say was this. Everything else is kind of rant!!!


Those who remember amnesty under Reagan must understand that Ronald Reagan's GOP didn't have a tea party wing.




Lets not get too far into the party politics discussion. It does not add any value to this forum.

[Jonty Rhodes]

My worry is that if Democrats lose majority in Senate, than it would be even harder for the President to issue an EO in December because his authority will be severely challenged and he won't be able to get anything significant done on immigration at all. Those states where Democrats are in a tight race, their Republican rivals are already running ad campaigns telling their voter base that President is going to issue EO anyways, it does not matter whether he does it now or after November. Their point is that timing of EO is immaterial if President's intention is to issue an EO.

This is what New Hampshire Senate Candidate Scott Brown said, "Make no mistake: President Obama plans to grant amnesty; it's just that he will cynically wait until after the election so as not to harm Senate Democrats like Jeanne Shaheen." Scott Brown now trails Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen by only two percentage points, after polls in July suggested a gap of more than 12 points.

My feeling is this. I don't think that President's delaying the EO would have any different impact on the election results. But if Democrats lose the majority in Senate, then we should all bid good bye to any kind of immigration reform. GOP will not allow any significant immigration reform to happen. If Republicans are majority in Senate then one small possibility is that House may push its own watered down version of CIR (without any significant relief for illegals) and send it for vote in Senate. But in that case, even if the Senate passes the bill, President would veto it because BO will surely not sign a republican proposed legislation.

In this mess, I have a zero hope of anything getting done for legal immigration. Not that I had high hopes before, but it would be almost impossible then.

[nbk1976]

Average wait time for EB2I is 6 yrs; EB3I, it is 12. If the wait seems too long, just immigrate to Canada. The process over there just takes a few months.

None of us can vote; and there aren't enough legal immigrants (Indians and others) in this country to influence the politicians who are only looking at their political future vis-a-vis the largely hispanic illegal immigrants and the growing native hispanics who have a lot more political power today. Policy discussions are pointless. Like the weather, we have neither control nor influence over it. The only thing we should be talking about are good advice on immigration matters, personal experiences in porting/AC21, discussing known cases of self-employment, etc.

[PD2008AUG25]

My worry is that if Democrats lose majority in Senate, than it would be even harder for the President to issue an EO in December because his authority will be severely challenged and he won't be able to get anything significant done on immigration at all.

I think he has painted himself into a corner so deep that he will have to do something. Activists are cursing him for delaying it for 6 weeks, imagine if it were to be cancelled entirely. Only thing that matters is his legal authority. If he is doing something that is unprecedented, let's not forget he has faced unprecedented obstructionism bordering racism.

[imdeng]

I was searching for some other stuff and landed on to some congressional testimony for the attempted 2007 CIR. It was fun to note that people were talking about increasing DV to 110K.

Anyways - after reading bunch of stuff - my personal opinion (which matters exactly zilch - but still) - is that an expanded DACA is coming for sure. The legal authority to do so seems to be there. Since original DACA was not challenged, it is likely that the new one will not be either except for the usual shouting from the rooftops.

The question that remains is whether this EO will have anything for Legal immigration. Unfortunately, unlike DACA, both Visa Recapture and Dependent Counting are in the legal grey zone - solid arguments on both sides on whether they can be done without congressional action. If the Obama team wants to be foolproof from a court challenge, they may pass on both of these. OTOH - they may pass undetected among the war on DACA expansion - and might even attract some much needed support from large business groups. So who knows!

[gs1968]

I was searching for some other stuff and landed on to some congressional testimony for the attempted 2007 CIR. It was fun to note that people were talking about increasing DV to 110K.

Anyways - after reading bunch of stuff - my personal opinion (which matters exactly zilch - but still) - is that an expanded DACA is coming for sure. The legal authority to do so seems to be there. Since original DACA was not challenged, it is likely that the new one will not be either except for the usual shouting from the rooftops.

The question that remains is whether this EO will have anything for Legal immigration. Unfortunately, unlike DACA, both Visa Recapture and Dependent Counting are in the legal grey zone - solid arguments on both sides on whether they can be done without congressional action. If the Obama team wants to be foolproof from a court challenge, they may pass on both of these. OTOH - they may pass undetected among the war on DACA expansion - and might even attract some much needed support from large business groups. So who knows!

All the lawyers have gone silent on this issue now. I am not so sure that the interpretation of the EB/FB or DV numerical limits is in a grey zone.We have to be wary of ex-Congressmen and ex-INS officials/counsel who are either lobbyists or immigration lawyers now who are probably saying things that will please their constituency but did not/could not do anything about the law when they had a chance to do so. It will be difficult to legally defend a dramatic and wide-reaching reinterpretation of a statute in force for a quarter of a century. One would assume that in the time period following the passage of the law,the INS would have done detailed rule making in consultation with the administration and lawmakers and all these points would have been clarified. The reclassification of dependants will lead to an increase in legal immigration by almost 750000 per year on top of the 1 million that already immigrate now and is unlikely to pass unnoticed. Moreover then Sens Simpson (R) and Deconcini (D) are still alive from the Senate conference committee and would be available to testify if needed. Rep.Lamar Smith from TX was also on the conference committee and so was Sen.(then Rep) Schumer. It is interesting to note that when Sen.Schumer drafted S.744 he re-classified Immediate relatives of Green Card holders in the same subsection as the relatives of US citizens implying that current law places numerical limits. The administration lawyers if they dig in for the long haul may take this through various judicial levels but knowing how the Republicans play the zero sum,rob peter to pay paul game they are not going to give up easily

BTW-with all the focus now moved to ISIS and the middle east, it remains to be sen if the president will be doing the EO.Anyway I read this link from a tweet I got a few days back

http://washingtonexaminer.com/why-didnt-obama-pass-immigration-reform-when-he-had-the-chance/article/2553046#!

I sincerely hope that there is some respite for backlogs in all the numerically limited categories but I feel that Congress has to amend the INA to allow this as the law/precedence is very clear

[anuprab]

I am so fed up with this whole immigration legislation and BO flip-flopping on this issue. I have lost faith in anything positive coming out of the administration. To my mind why link any legislative relief to legals with illegals is beyond comprehension although i know its all politically driven. is there anyway we legals can campaign our cause - simple things like allowing to file 485 even when dates are not current and move jobs in any fields...there must be groups already working towards this ..anyway i am ranting because as of this moment i am frustrated and dont see any outlet except forums like these..

[kumar777]

this is absolutely true.. Corporations need H1B slavery ( won't ask for big rises,promotions & mainly no need to worry about attrition).

"The problem with EB is it has absolutely no real backers. The vote bank is too small for Obama or ANY other politician to care. The corporations love H1B but they don't care about GCs. The corporations actually dont like GCs because then they lose their H1B slave. So obviously GOP is not going to support GCs."

[anuprab]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/11/hispanic-caucus-immigration_n_5806360.html

now its on and now its not...

[idiotic]

Last time it was "before the end of summer" .. every one wondering what end of summer really meant.. so now it is "before end of holiday season" .. Thanksgiving? Christmas? or Pongal (Farmer's festival in India around 2nd week of Jan) :)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/09/11/obama-plans-to-go-as-far-as-he-can-on-immigration-before-years-end-lawmakers-say/
Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) added that "We told [McDonough] we were mad because we thought for sure that he would act. We got promises that he's going to act as generously as he possibly can before the end of the holiday season."

[imdeng]

Holiday season = Christmas. There is some sense in setting a media narrative of a "Christmas present" and Republicans eventually being described as a Grinch and so on. Media tends to follow lazy stereotypes and patterns - and this seems to fit quite well.

There will be an EO after elections and before Christmas. It will be an expanded DACA. Whether it will have anything else for legals I don't know. However, any EO will essentially force Republican's hands into doing something - and any something they do has a higher likelihood of including stuff for legals.

This is a play for 2016 now. Everything will happen with the simple criteria - how will it affect 2016?


Last time it was "before the end of summer" .. every one wondering what end of summer really meant.. so now it is "before end of holiday season" .. Thanksgiving? Christmas? or Pongal (Farmer's festival in India around 2nd week of Jan) :)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/09/11/obama-plans-to-go-as-far-as-he-can-on-immigration-before-years-end-lawmakers-say/
Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) added that "We told [McDonough] we were mad because we thought for sure that he would act. We got promises that he's going to act as generously as he possibly can before the end of the holiday season."

[vizcard]

Obama delaying EO probably has to do with the funding bill more than anything else. He doesn't want to have to "negotiate" and the GOP can't fight an unknown. Cruz is trying to preempt BO's moves by trying to include anti- immigration language in the funding bill but so far he has no success. Any attempt to screw up the funding bill will shut down the govt and will consequently only hurt the GOP in the elections.

[idiotic]

Holiday season = Christmas. There is some sense in setting a media narrative of a "Christmas present" and Republicans eventually being described as a Grinch and so on. Media tends to follow lazy stereotypes and patterns - and this seems to fit quite well.

There will be an EO after elections and before Christmas. It will be an expanded DACA. Whether it will have anything else for legals I don't know. However, any EO will essentially force Republican's hands into doing something - and any something they do has a higher likelihood of including stuff for legals.

This is a play for 2016 now. Everything will happen with the simple criteria - how will it affect 2016?

Agreed. Remaining optimistic that there is something for iegals. If not, i will try to file 485 under illegal category :) Just kidding..

[aquatican]

It will be shameful if the illegals are given EADs ahead of legal immigrants stuck in backlog hell.
Having an EAD gives the illegals to work for any company/position which is something we do not get even after approved I140.

However the charm of 10 million votes will sway both parties.


Agreed. Remaining optimistic that there is something for illegals. If not, try to file 485 under illegal category :) Just kidding..

[idiotic]

It will be shameful if the illegals are given EADs ahead of legal immigrants stuck in backlog hell.
Having an EAD gives the illegals to work for any company/position which is something we do not get even after approved I140.

However the charm of 10 million votes will sway both parties.

I meant legals.. not illegals.. corrected post above.

Backlog hell is lesser problem than getting pulled over and deported with not being able to return to home for 10 years. It's not votes .. it's people

[imdeng]

Fully support your thoughts. We do have our problems - but they are not even in the same ball park as problems faced by the undocumented immigrants. We should support freedom and opportunity for all immigrants. I hope Obama goes crazy and gives EAD for 5-6 million folks irrespective of what he does for the EB community.

I meant legals.. not illegals.. corrected post above.

Backlog hell is lesser problem than getting pulled over and deported with not being able to return to home for 10 years. It's not votes .. it's people

[qesehmk]

Backlog hell is lesser problem than getting pulled over and deported with not being able to return to home for 10 years. It's not votes .. it's people
Very very wise words - my friend. I can't thank you enough for saying what you just said.

While politics is mostly about Votes and Power - the issues being tossed around in politics do have a strong human element to them. Lets not forget that.

[vizcard]

It will be shameful if the illegals are given EADs ahead of legal immigrants stuck in backlog hell.
Having an EAD gives the illegals to work for any company/position which is something we do not get even after approved I140.

However the charm of 10 million votes will sway both parties.

While I understand ur frustration, the illegals won't be able to vote even with the EAD so it's not necessarily about those votes. There are political reasons - no doubt - but it's a bigger thing about labels. The democrats want to be called pro-immigration which will deliver minority votes regardless of underlying policy (border security, amnesty, etc) and want to paint the GOP as anti-immigration. Ofcourse blowhards like King and Cruz make it easy to believe that.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Now, there is a talk about this. I think that President will have to issue some EO for illegals as Hispanic Caucus is really pushing him hard but if the situation worsens in Iraq then border security issue may gain more traction and if the Democrats lose the majority in Senate in November, we may see some flip-flop again from BO in December regarding EO. In any case, the chances for something happening for legals through EO is very very slim to almost zero. I don't expect anything happening for legal immigrants till CIR passes (who knows when) or some miracle happens.

http://dailycaller.com/2014/09/18/head-of-immigration-union-america-is-highly-vulnerable-to-an-isis-attack/

[YTeleven]

so-close-to-america (https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/so-close-to-america)
Interesting video making...someone has to make similar for H4-EAD to get the attention of BO...

[migo79]

here is a kicker:
as Pres.Obama in greater consensus among the analysts that he will act to give parents of US born citizen, EAD/AP by the end of the year.
What will be the effect on legal resident that has a US born kid, he should also get an EAD/AP.
This could help many folks in EB3I who has been here for long time and has at least one US kid.

What do you think guys?

[skpanda]

Can you please provide the Source?


here is a kicker:
as Pres.Obama in greater consensus among the analysts that he will act to give parents of US born citizen, EAD/AP by the end of the year.
What will be the effect on legal resident that has a US born kid, he should also get an EAD/AP.
This could help many folks in EB3I who has been here for long time and has at least one US kid.

What do you think guys?

[migo79]

it wasn't a news rather than asking
i'm saying that if EO include EAD/AP for illegals who have US citizen children

Was that also apply for Legals or not.

[idiotic]

http://www.grassley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/judiciary/upload/Immigration%2C%2010-10-14%2C%20Executive%20action%2C%20letter%20to%20Pres ident.pdf

If republicans win Senate, Sen. Grassley will be head of Senate Judiciary committee incharge of any immigration laws. Explicitly stated out he is not for any proposal including increasing green cards for legal immigrants.

[gcq]

http://www.grassley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/judiciary/upload/Immigration%2C%2010-10-14%2C%20Executive%20action%2C%20letter%20to%20Pres ident.pdf

If republicans win Senate, Sen. Grassley will be head of Senate Judiciary committee incharge of any immigration laws. Explicitly stated out he is not for any proposal including increasing green cards for legal immigrants.

He and Steve King just signs off letters drafted by numbers usa.

[anuprab]

I know its hopeless but with no options I am hoping against hope if Obama will do something for legals if he ever takes executive action? any ideas experts?

[gten20]

I know its hopeless but with no options I am hoping against hope if Obama will do something for legals if he ever takes executive action? any ideas experts?
Right now, I doubt even Obama has an idea what he will be doing regarding EO after the Nov. elections. We just have to wait.

[PD2008AUG25]

I know its hopeless but with no options I am hoping against hope if Obama will do something for legals if he ever takes executive action? any ideas experts?

I think he will do something before the end of year, just not sure if there will be anything beyond H4 EAD rule for legals.

[gten20]

NumbersUSA... doing their thing again. :mad:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/numbersusa-immigration-jobs-111909.html

[anuprab]

who will tell these bozos that the immigrants waiting in line are already here and just asking for reducing the backlog. Wouldn't it make sense since people will move in and out of jobs and make markets more efficient? But politics and economics never go together..

[kkruna]

Some history on EO

http://www.thelegalintelligencer.com/home/id=1202673346190/Obamas-Immigration-Executive-Order-Would-Follow-Predecessors-Lead?mcode=1202615324341&curindex=2&slreturn=20140916175305

[YTeleven]

Check this news:http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/10/19/Exclusive-Obama-Admin-Quietly-Prepares-Surge-Of-Millions-Of-Immigrant-IDs

[kkruna]

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/10/19/Exclusive-Obama-Admin-Quietly-Prepares-Surge-Of-Millions-Of-Immigrant-IDs

If Obama was considering EO "at the end of summer" then why was this not set in works earlier?!

[idiotic]

If Obama was considering EO "at the end of summer" then why was this not set in works earlier?!

The above link clearly proves that Obama has given internal directives to Jeh Johnson who is just preparing the agency for the same.. Public announcement is pending because of public anger over border kids and upcoming elections..
I think this is good catch from right wing which administration have trouble escaping from.. Hope that cat will be out of the bag sooner than expected..

[gten20]

The above link clearly proves that Obama has given internal directives to Jeh Johnson who is just preparing the agency for the same.. Public announcement is pending because of public anger over border kids and upcoming elections..
I think this is good catch from right wing which administration have trouble escaping from.. Hope that cat will be out of the bag sooner than expected..

At the risk of sounding pessimistic, I won't get my hopes high yet. This could be for parents of US citizens who are in US illegally. Reuniting family plays well in US politics.

[msdhoni]

https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=20bc202b0a49bbe9f2a705782dba0090&tab=core&tabmode=list

[EB2IndSep09]

Despite no official action from the president ahead of the election, the Obama administration has quietly begun preparing to issue millions of work authorization permits, suggesting the implementation of a large-scale executive amnesty may have already begun.

34 million blank green cards??

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/10/19/Exclusive-Obama-Admin-Quietly-Prepares-Surge-Of-Millions-Of-Immigrant-IDs
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2800356/us-immigration-authorities-prep-order-34-million-blank-green-cards-work-authorization-papers-obama-readies-executive-order-illegal-aliens.html

[msdhoni]

Despite no official action from the president ahead of the election, the Obama administration has quietly begun preparing to issue millions of work authorization permits, suggesting the implementation of a large-scale executive amnesty may have already begun.

34 million blank green cards??

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/10/19/Exclusive-Obama-Admin-Quietly-Prepares-Surge-Of-Millions-Of-Immigrant-IDs
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2800356/us-immigration-authorities-prep-order-34-million-blank-green-cards-work-authorization-papers-obama-readies-executive-order-illegal-aliens.html

In regards to the same - https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=20bc202b0a49bbe9f2a705782dba0090&tab=core&tabmode=list

[EB2IndSep09]

Deleted duplicate post

[gten20]

The new solicitation for blank cards could figure into Obama’s expected executive order. An unnamed USCIS official told the Daily Mail that it was posted "in case the president makes the move we think he will.”

Speaking to the conservative outlet Breitbart.com – which first reported on the draft solicitation – Jessica Vaughan of the right-leaning Center for Immigration Studies said the document “seems to indicate that the president is contemplating an enormous executive action that is even more expansive than the plan that Congress rejected” in 2013.

However, an a separate USCIS official told the Daily Mail the draft was published not as part of Obama’s upcoming policy changes, but in case Congress acts to pass immigration reform

Commenting on the polarizing nature of the debate, CNN’s John King dismissed the odds of Congress getting together to pass reform, saying conservatives are determined to oppose the broad strokes of the president’s plans.

"If the president uses his executive power as promised, Republicans will be pushing the grass-roots for confrontation, not compromise,” he said, as quoted by Newsmax.com. “An issue we thought after 2014 Republicans would try to deal with, will be with us until 2016 and beyond."

http://rt.com/usa/197680-immigration-blank-cards-obama/

[idiotic]

The above link clearly proves that Obama has given internal directives to Jeh Johnson who is just preparing the agency for the same.. Public announcement is pending because of public anger over border kids and upcoming elections..
I think this is good catch from right wing which administration have trouble escaping from.. Hope that cat will be out of the bag sooner than expected..

Here is the escape from Administration..

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/10/21/White-House-Punts-On-USCIS-Request-For-Surge-Of-Immigration-ID-s

Ask USCIS, not us :)

[idiotic]

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/221557-white-house-immigration-stories-crazy

Dancing around.. Very amusing to watch..

[gs1968]

This from buzzfeed

http://www.buzzfeed.com/adriancarrasquillo/the-final-recommendations-for-immigration-actions-are-being

No information on changes to the legal immigration system
Maybe we are looking in the wrong place

[imdeng]

Man - comments from nativists on these articles are scary. The backlash to the EO, no matter the size and scope, will be fierce. It might even get violent. I so wish the republicans had just put the Senate bill up for a vote.

The country is changing fast - almost too fast. There are a bunch of people who are finding it difficult to handle this change. Their resentment is being stoked by the political process. I hope the accumulated ill will does not boil over - because if it does it will poison race relations in this country for next 50 years. 50 years from the Civil Rights Act, the country still sees everything from a black-white-race prism. If the current fight turns violent, then for next 50 years we will keep trying in vain to get over the nativist-immigrant divide.

BTW - if you did not get a chance to read Ta-Nehisi Coates' article in The Atlantic called "The Case for Reparations" - its well worth a few minutes of your time. We, as recent immigrants, really have not felt the full weight of the racial history of the country. The country is yet to come to terms with its past (as opposed to, for example, Germany and WWII) - and the new layer that will be added by the EO will only make the task more intractable.

Link to TNC's Atlantic Article: http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2014/05/the-case-for-reparations/361631/




This from buzzfeed

http://www.buzzfeed.com/adriancarrasquillo/the-final-recommendations-for-immigration-actions-are-being

No information on changes to the legal immigration system
Maybe we are looking in the wrong place

[gcq]

Man - comments from nativists on these articles are scary. The backlash to the EO, no matter the size and scope, will be fierce. It might even get violent. I so wish the republicans had just put the Senate bill up for a vote.

The country is changing fast - almost too fast. There are a bunch of people who are finding it difficult to handle this change. Their resentment is being stoked by the political process. I hope the accumulated ill will does not boil over - because if it does it will poison race relations in this country for next 50 years. 50 years from the Civil Rights Act, the country still sees everything from a black-white-race prism. If the current fight turns violent, then for next 50 years we will keep trying in vain to get over the nativist-immigrant divide.

BTW - if you did not get a chance to read Ta-Nehisi Coates' article in The Atlantic called "The Case for Reparations" - its well worth a few minutes of your time. We, as recent immigrants, really have not felt the full weight of the racial history of the country. The country is yet to come to terms with its past (as opposed to, for example, Germany and WWII) - and the new layer that will be added by the EO will only make the task more intractable.

Link to TNC's Atlantic Article: http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2014/05/the-case-for-reparations/361631/

When we see racial comments in immigration articles, don't think they are the majority ( or even minority) of americans writing those. There are couple of well funded ant-immigrant organizations like NUSA, FAIR etc. NUSA is funded in millions and they have people paid to write these comments in articles. If you search for numbersusa in linked in, there are programmers working for numbers usa. From that we get a clue of how organized and well funded this organization is. Which anti-immigrant organization would need a programmer on their payroll !

[idiotic]

When we see racial comments in immigration articles, don't think they are the majority ( or even minority) of americans writing those. There are couple of well funded ant-immigrant organizations like NUSA, FAIR etc. NUSA is funded in millions and they have people paid to write these comments in articles. If you search for numbersusa in linked in, there are programmers working for numbers usa. From that we get a clue of how organized and well funded this organization is. Which anti-immigrant organization would need a programmer on their payroll !

It is not difficult to figure out they are the proxy for Republican party.. Here is the floor speech calling it out explicitly why any immigration reform negotiation always fails and why it is always net green card neutral solutions the best republicans can do for legal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ya-obhOUdv4

[YTeleven]

Another deadline/opportunity for BO is on the way to prove that ...HE CAN DO IT...
Let's see what he will say this time. http://www.musillo.com/2014/10/president-obama-could-expand-h-1b-and.html

[PD2008AUG25]

This is latest...recapture in..family unit out...



Other changes are expected to benefit businesses that use large numbers of legal immigrants, such as technology companies. One change under consideration would “recapture” unused visas from previous years in order to make more visas available to such companies, according to one person familiar with the deliberations. This person said that a second change that companies have requested—changing the way visas are counted so that a family unit counts as only one spot toward the limit—is less likely.


http://online.wsj.com/articles/obama-may-cut-deportations-1414626089

[imdeng]

Dependent counting is the tougher one - legally speaking. Recapture is on sounder legal footing. As far as we are concerned - both/either work. Dependent counting will be a more long term solution - but both will provide immediate relief. At least legal immigration is being included in the discussions. My fear has been that there wouldn't be anything other than EAD for H4 in the EO for legal immigration.


This is latest...recapture in..family unit out...

http://online.wsj.com/articles/obama-may-cut-deportations-1414626089

[idiotic]

This is latest...recapture in..family unit out...



http://online.wsj.com/articles/obama-may-cut-deportations-1414626089

According to me, there are 2 recaptures floating around

1) Recapture of H1B visas
2) Recapture of Permanent Resident Visas

The language in the article sounds to me that this is 1 and not 2.

[imdeng]

I have not come across any discussion of recapture of H1B visa numbers. Only recapture with H1B is that of time spent outside the country - which you can do right now. Any recapture talk regarding visa numbers has happened only in the GC context IIRC. Have I missed something? Any links to the contrary will be appreciated.


According to me, there are 2 recaptures floating around

1) Recapture of H1B visas
2) Recapture of Permanent Resident Visas

The language in the article sounds to me that this is 1 and not 2.

[gs1968]

Dependent counting is the tougher one - legally speaking. Recapture is on sounder legal footing. As far as we are concerned - both/either work. Dependent counting will be a more long term solution - but both will provide immediate relief. At least legal immigration is being included in the discussions. My fear has been that there wouldn't be anything other than EAD for H4 in the EO for legal immigration.

Not if NumbersUSA is to be believed!!

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/files/pdf/Fact%20Sheet%20Visa%20Recapture.pdf

The irony is that legislation involving visa recapture generally enjoys bipartisan support.Most of the standalone legislation in both senate and house have had Democrat and Republican co-sponsors.Lofgren-Sensenbrenner comes to mind.Visa recapture also appeals to the American sense of fair play in that the delays in green cards may be secondary to processing delays and applicants should not be punished if visa numbers go wasted. If this was part of EO Congress may not get too excited but judicial challenges will definitely come from organizations as above and may even have a chance to succeed. There is legislative pcedence in Congress acting to retrieve these visas in the form of standalone legislation ( AC21)

[gten20]

I have not come across any discussion of recapture of H1B visa numbers. Only recapture with H1B is that of time spent outside the country - which you can do right now. Any recapture talk regarding visa numbers has happened only in the GC context IIRC. Have I missed something? Any links to the contrary will be appreciated.

While I hope its GC visas recapture, the article does sound like its for H1B as it says "make visas available to such Companies". Obama did say he was going to expand H1B rules in his speech few weeks ago and some H1B visas do get wasted because of declines.

[idiotic]

I have not come across any discussion of recapture of H1B visa numbers. Only recapture with H1B is that of time spent outside the country - which you can do right now. Any recapture talk regarding visa numbers has happened only in the GC context IIRC. Have I missed something? Any links to the contrary will be appreciated.

imdeng,

There are many links for this. I could only get this now quickly. Please see page 10.

http://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/NFAP-Policy-Brief.Executive-Action.Sept-2014.pdf

"Recovery of H-1B petitions or employment-based green cards not issued in previous fiscal years would be of
significant help to employers and skilled foreign nationals waiting in backlogs due to low quotas. It would likely
make available an additional 300,000 H-1B visas (unused below H-1B cap since FY 1992) and 200,000 to
250,000 employment-based green cards."

[anuprab]

http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article3499782.html

[devi_pd]

http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article3499782.html

Most of the articles online are indicating that either the recapture or not counting dependents is highly probable. If one these happens, we won't have EB backlogs for a very long time.

[imdeng]

Recent polls suggest that Latinos are disappointed with Dems and the Dem advantage with them may be eroding. That makes an EO more likely to make them move back to Dems before 2016. The dreamer DACA was well timed for 2012 election. An expanded form of DACA is likely to happen for 2016. And if EO is happening then it is likely that it will have *something* for legal immigration so as to attract business support.

That *something* can be whatever: from just H4 EAD to Recapture and/or Dependent Counting. Articles like the Miami Herald linked below is important to build momentum and consensus. I am encouraged to see them appear in popular press.

[sportsfan33]

My honest $0.02.

The Republicans are socking it to the Dems. It's a huge loss for the Dems across the border. Anything drastic from BO will only make matters worse and they will even lose the WH in 2016.

Do not expect anything game changing in the coming days.

[gcq]

Now that GOP controls both house and senate, does President have any excuse for executive orders now ? Earlier he could say it is a do nothing congress so he has to do EO. Now congress will deliver items to his table though he wont like most of them. However he can act in lame duck session before next congress comes into power.

[kkruna]

Now that GOP controls both house and senate, does President have any excuse for executive orders now ? Earlier he could say it is a do nothing congress so he has to do EO. Now congress will deliver items to his table though he wont like most of them. However he can act in lame duck session before next congress comes into power.

Politically, he has to set the agenda rather than work on backfoot. If he doesn't act Republicans will set the agenda for him. So, it would be better to strike calculated offensive positions and use them as bargaining chips and try influence what agenda Republicans set for him.

Not sure he will go that way. It all depends on if he and key people on Republican side (who are they? Tea party believes they command majority!) can work together.

If Republicans get to the point of sending bills - it would be border security first followed by High Skill Immigration. So, if anything, the situation should be better for us.

But here is the main problem: there are enough presidential hopefuls to poison the well (to borrow Republican phrase) for any action that would be intended or moved (except for border security).

[kkruna]

The Maths for WH is different. Both parties obviously know it. However, Republican have this issue of getting nomination approvals from Tea Party so they will sing a different and calibrated tune.

[PD2008AUG25]

Now that GOP controls both house and senate, does President have any excuse for executive orders now ? Earlier he could say it is a do nothing congress so he has to do EO. Now congress will deliver items to his table though he wont like most of them. However he can act in lame duck session before next congress comes into power.

As Sports said above, he will do something moderate. For documented immigrants, even a small measure can be very helpful. Either of visa recapture or dependent count would be enough to clear backlog.

I totally expect Republicans to feign new interest in passing an immigration bill if only to prevent Obama's EO.

[qesehmk]

Sports - on a different note - this loss means in 2016 dems will win the WH - hands down. GOP will do nothing even though they have control of the senate and congress and the public is going to say enough is enough.

As far as EO is concerned ... if Obama acts now - the GOP will cry foul and say the president is ignoring the mandate. I hope he does something now. Other than EO 2015 doesn't look like a very good year.

My honest $0.02.

The Republicans are socking it to the Dems. It's a huge loss for the Dems across the border. Anything drastic from BO will only make matters worse and they will even lose the WH in 2016.

Do not expect anything game changing in the coming days.

[gcq]

Sports - on a different note - this loss means in 2016 dems will win the WH - hands down. GOP will do nothing even though they have control of the senate and congress and the public is going to say enough is enough.

As far as EO is concerned ... if Obama acts now - the GOP will cry foul and say the president is ignoring the mandate. I hope he does something now. Other than EO 2015 doesn't look like a very good year.

I am thinking WH may go GOP way in 2016 as GOP controls congress completely now. Both House and Senate will pass bills that Pres won't like to sign. He will veto them. Then GOP will cry foul. This will go on for 2 years when people will think Obama/Democrats is causing the gridlock and vote GOP.

[qesehmk]

interesting ... how we think the same way but our conclusion is different!! I think people will see the gridlock and then vote for hillary.
I am thinking WH may go GOP way in 2016 as GOP controls congress completely now. Both House and Senate will pass bills that Pres won't like to sign. He will veto them. Then GOP will cry foul. This will go on for 2 years when people will think Obama/Democrats is causing the gridlock and vote GOP.

[ROCK72]

[I][I]
Not if NumbersUSA is to be believed!!

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/files/pdf/Fact%20Sheet%20Visa%20Recapture.pdf

The irony is that legislation involving visa recapture generally enjoys bipartisan support.Most of the standalone legislation in both senate and house have had Democrat and Republican co-sponsors.Lofgren-Sensenbrenner comes to mind.Visa recapture also appeals to the American sense of fair play in that the delays in green cards may be secondary to processing delays and applicants should not be punished if visa numbers go wasted. If this was part of EO Congress may not get too excited but judicial challenges will definitely come from organizations as above and may even have a chance to succeed. There is legislative pcedence in Congress acting to retrieve these visas in the form of standalone legislation ( AC21)



That is not correct. I dug up all the EB based visas since FY1991. This shows a possible PD recapture amount of 206.9 K. visas.

S.No FY EB TOTAL QUOTA Delta
1 1991 59,525 140,000 -80,475
2 1992 116,198 140,000 -23,802
3 1993 147,012 140,000 7,012
4 1994 123,291 140,000 -16,709
5 1995 85,336 140,000 -54,664
6 1996 117,499 140,000 -22,501
7 1997 90,607 140,000 -49,393
8 1998 77,517 140,000 -62,483
9 1999 56,817 140,000 -83,183
10 2000 111,166 140,000 -28,834
11 2001 186,536 140,000 46,536
12 2002 171,583 140,000 31,583
13 2003 83,020 140,000 -56,980
14 2004 157,107 140,000 17,107
15 2005 242,335 140,000 102,335
16 2006 133,622 140,000 -6,378
17 2007 154,460 140,000 14,460
18 2008 162,949 140,000 22,949
19 2009 140,987 140,000 987
20 2010 150,262 140,000 10,262
21 2011 139,302 140,000 -698
22 2012 144,648 140,000 4,648
23 2013 161,269 140,000 21,269

Totals 3,013,048 3,220,000 206,952

[PD2008AUG25]

I am thinking WH may go GOP way in 2016 as GOP controls congress completely now. Both House and Senate will pass bills that Pres won't like to sign. He will veto them. Then GOP will cry foul. This will go on for 2 years when people will think Obama/Democrats is causing the gridlock and vote GOP.

Mid-term elections are very different than Presidential elections. Republicans tend to do well in midterm elections because electorate composition favors them. This results do not have much bearing on 2016 elections.

Now, Republicans can surprise everybody by passing moderate bills and ending gridlock. That won't happen, hardliners like Cruz and other Presidential hopefuls hell-bent on proving their conservative credentials won't allow something to pass that is moderate.

[iatiam]

Mid-term elections are very different than Presidential elections. Republicans tend to do well in midterm elections because electorate composition favors them. This results do not have much bearing on 2016 elections.

Now, Republicans can surprise everybody by passing moderate bills and ending gridlock. That won't happen, hardliners like Cruz and other Presidential hopefuls hell-bent on proving their conservative credentials won't allow something to pass that is moderate.

Cruz actually supports legal immigration and voted in favor of increasing H1B visas. Its people like Grassley who could turn the table with his anti-any immigration stance and potential to head the senate committee.

Republicans are pro-business and people like Issa (who is himself a businessman) favor legal immigration. But the sticky point is that they favor more H1B visas without corresponding increase in green cards. So the bottle neck becomes even worse.

Expecting Obama to do any thing is foolishness. He could have done a lot in the last six years, but he did not. Whether or not a republican controlled senate translate to any gains is any bodys guess at this time.

About WH, looks like Q made a predication too much in advance. Hillary may not run for president. Or maybe she will. but who the hell knows. Two years is a long period in American politics. Any thing could happen. Another recession and Obama's already low approval numbers may go even lower thus paving to a republican WH. Or economy may turn around and they may retain the WH without senate or house or they may gain both senate and house with the WH. Again, who knows.

As to legal immigration as Al Pacino said in Scent of a Woman - "A life is lived in a single minute" (or some thing like that). So us legals, life is lived in a single spillover season.

Iatiam

[sportsfan33]

Sports - on a different note - this loss means in 2016 dems will win the WH - hands down. GOP will do nothing even though they have control of the senate and congress and the public is going to say enough is enough.

As far as EO is concerned ... if Obama acts now - the GOP will cry foul and say the president is ignoring the mandate. I hope he does something now. Other than EO 2015 doesn't look like a very good year.

Dems will always win the WH until the Republicans change their ways about a bunch of important issues (race relations, guns, environment) and a bunch of non issues (same sex marriage). The demographics have changed enough to ensure it will happen. Florida, Colorado and Virginia are blue for all practical purposes.

On the other hand, a majority of Americans support securing the border and taking a tough stance on illegal immigration. If there was a terrorist attack tomorrow in the country and if it was traced to the porous border, can you imagine what kind of hell will break loose? There have already been open threats this will happen.

If BO acts unilaterally, he will make matters worse and cost the Dems even more Senate/Congress seats. Unfortunately, there is only 1 president, but there are several prospective Congressmen who don't want to face angry voters back home. BO will be practically isolated.

The Republicans lost the governor race in Maryland. It is very telling. This election was a clear mandate against some of the key BO policies, and immigration is one of them. That's how I am seeing it.

The tenable solution for legal immigrants is the H4-EAD rule. In my view, that solves a bunch of problems.

[sportsfan33]

Some key eye opener stats:

Voting by race:
60% white vote to the Republicans, which is at least 5% larger than what Romney received.
They even received 35% Hispanic votes. A presidential candidate like Jeb Bush can get even more.
What was the most surprising was that the Asian vote was split dead even.

This shows that Republicans may be changing and embracing more diversity. If they were to change their hardliner stance on some nutjob issues and distance themselves from the tea party, things will be interesting for 2016.

[iatiam]

Some key eye opener stats:

Voting by race:
60% white vote to the Republicans, which is at least 5% larger than what Romney received.
They even received 35% Hispanic votes. A presidential candidate like Jeb Bush can get even more.
What was the most surprising was that the Asian vote was split dead even.

This shows that Republicans may be changing and embracing more diversity. If they were to change their hardliner stance on some nutjob issues and distance themselves from the tea party, things will be interesting for 2016.

Sorry to disagree with you. H4-EAD is just a fraction of the total legal immigrants in line. For it to work you need a PERM, approved 140 and a spouse on H4. Plus it might open the very familiar bickering among Indians. Some one with H4-EAD might get a job over some one with an OPT who requres a visa. Haven't we seen such fights happening in the site that shall not be named.

Iatiam

[gten20]

Got this in the email.

REGISTER NOW!

The Office of the Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman is hosting its Fourth Annual Conference featuring keynote remarks from U.S. Department of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson, a conversation with USCIS Director León Rodríguez, and panel discussions throughout the afternoon on issues impacting the delivery of immigration benefits and services.

Government and Stakeholders Working Together to Improve Immigration Services.

November 6, 2014
8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
National Archives
700 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C.
This conference provides a forum to exchange ideas and suggestions to address the current legal immigration challenges faced by individuals, families, and employers with leaders from across the government, non-governmental organizations and the private sector. If you would like to attend, please register by emailing your name, title, business/organization/agency affiliation, and phone number to cisombudsman.publicaffairs@hq.dhs.gov with “Annual Conference” in the subject line.

Registration will remain open until all registration slots are full. If you are unable to join us in person, please watch a livestream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFeHIvrCznU)of the conference's morning session.

If you have questions about the conference program, please email Senior Advisor Margaret Gleason at Margaret.Gleason@hq.dhs.gov or cisombudsman.publicaffairs@hq.dhs.gov.

Sincerely,

Office of the Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman
U.S. Department of Homeland Security
www.dhs.gov/cisombudsman

[sportsfan33]

Sorry to disagree with you. H4-EAD is just a fraction of the total legal immigrants in line. For it to work you need a PERM, approved 140 and a spouse on H4. Plus it might open the very familiar bickering among Indians. Some one with H4-EAD might get a job over some one with an OPT who requres a visa. Haven't we seen such fights happening in the site that shall not be named.

Iatiam

I am talking about what can be practically achieved right now after the massive rout Dems experienced.

When Alaska and Louisiana go to republicans, it will be 54-46, a swing of unprecedented 9 seats. The Republicans are also tracking 250 seats in the House, which is historic by any measure.

This takes out any potential for an EO in my opinion. Even before the election, dependent counting and recapture could not have been possibly achieved by EO alone, and Spec had demonstrated that multiple times.

Any relief is relief. H4-EAD helps over 100K families. That's good enough for now. There will always be someone who doesn't get it, but we don't live in a utopia, do we?

[sportsfan33]

[I][I]



That is not correct. I dug up all the EB based visas since FY1991. This shows a possible PD recapture amount of 206.9 K. visas.

S.No FY EB TOTAL QUOTA Delta
1 1991 59,525 140,000 -80,475
2 1992 116,198 140,000 -23,802
3 1993 147,012 140,000 7,012
4 1994 123,291 140,000 -16,709
5 1995 85,336 140,000 -54,664
6 1996 117,499 140,000 -22,501
7 1997 90,607 140,000 -49,393
8 1998 77,517 140,000 -62,483
9 1999 56,817 140,000 -83,183
10 2000 111,166 140,000 -28,834
11 2001 186,536 140,000 46,536
12 2002 171,583 140,000 31,583
13 2003 83,020 140,000 -56,980
14 2004 157,107 140,000 17,107
15 2005 242,335 140,000 102,335
16 2006 133,622 140,000 -6,378
17 2007 154,460 140,000 14,460
18 2008 162,949 140,000 22,949
19 2009 140,987 140,000 987
20 2010 150,262 140,000 10,262
21 2011 139,302 140,000 -698
22 2012 144,648 140,000 4,648
23 2013 161,269 140,000 21,269

Totals 3,013,048 3,220,000 206,952

Do we know if unused EB visas have been given to FB?

Even if EB and FB in a given year have wasted unused visas, recapture can only work with a new act (like AC21 for example) passed by the Congress. That's my understanding. The president cannot act against the law...he has only so much wiggle room.

Edit: Also, isn't this analysis very simplistic? Do we know for example if the demand in 1991 was actually 140K? I am betting it wasn't. So how can you say 80K visas were wasted that year? On the same measure, you are undercounting the EB quota in 2013 for example. That year, the quota was in fact 158K and we received only 3K more, not 21K.

If we get down to such details, it will become a hard affair to determine exactly how many visas were wasted and how many of those are attributable to the USCIS alone.

Finally, my understanding was that AC21 passed in 2000 has already captured a good chunk of visas wasted in the 1990s.

Spec/kanmani/Q/informed souls can comment further.

[PD2008AUG25]

Cruz actually supports legal immigration and voted in favor of increasing H1B visas. Its people like Grassley who could turn the table with his anti-any immigration stance and potential to head the senate committee.



I mentioned Cruz as a hardliner in General and not specifically to Immigration. Also, there are lot of Republicans who keep talking about helping legal immigrants as they want to avoid being called as anti-all-immigration and for business lobby. They have little sympathy or understanding of legal immigration problems. Proof is in pudding, what legal immigration bills were passed by house in last Congress or what bills Cruz supported or authored? Cruz knows that certain section of Republicans oppose all kind of immigration and *actually* doing something for legal immigration will only harm him.

[iatiam]

I mentioned Cruz as a hardliner in General and not specifically to Immigration. Also, there are lot of Republicans who keep talking about helping legal immigrants as they want to avoid being called as anti-all-immigration and for business lobby. They have little sympathy or understanding of legal immigration problems. Proof is in pudding, what legal immigration bills were passed by house in last Congress or what bills Cruz supported or authored? Cruz knows that certain section of Republicans oppose all kind of immigration and *actually* doing something for legal immigration will only harm him.

Cruz was elected recently. He doesn't have a track record to prove any thing. Your question about sympathy to legal immigration applied to democrats too. With WH, senate and house how many pro-legal bills did they pass? HR3012 and the bill to convert DV visas (introduced by Issa) were initiated by Republicans. In fact CIR was also initiated by Rubio who has publicly supported legal immigration.

I don't want to turn this in to a debate on which party is better. I am not an American and would not even pretend to be one.

[Prabhas]

Mr O said it plain and transparent, that he is going to work on EO and declare by the end of this year. He will also work Republicans and get a bill so that they replace the EO.

So, we gotto just wait and see what he has got for legal Immigrants.

Hang in tight!

Cheers,

V

[gs1968]

Do we know if unused EB visas have been given to FB?

Even if EB and FB in a given year have wasted unused visas, recapture can only work with a new act (like AC21 for example) passed by the Congress. That's my understanding. The president cannot act against the law...he has only so much wiggle room.

Edit: Also, isn't this analysis very simplistic? Do we know for example if the demand in 1991 was actually 140K? I am betting it wasn't. So how can you say 80K visas were wasted that year? On the same measure, you are undercounting the EB quota in 2013 for example. That year, the quota was in fact 158K and we received only 3K more, not 21K.

If we get down to such details, it will become a hard affair to determine exactly how many visas were wasted and how many of those are attributable to the USCIS alone.

Finally, my understanding was that AC21 passed in 2000 has already captured a good chunk of visas wasted in the 1990s.

Spec/kanmani/Q/informed souls can comment further.


The NumbersUSA flyer I quoted indicates that unused visas from either category can be used in the subsequent fiscal year and there is no provision for a perpetual rollover till they are all used. The 140000 number is also a ceiling and not a target

On a different note the immigration system worked very well for the refugee quota last year as they almost met the 70000 ceiling for FY-2014 (69987).

[Spectator]

Do we know if unused EB visas have been given to FB?

Even if EB and FB in a given year have wasted unused visas, recapture can only work with a new act (like AC21 for example) passed by the Congress. That's my understanding. The president cannot act against the law...he has only so much wiggle room.

Edit: Also, isn't this analysis very simplistic? Do we know for example if the demand in 1991 was actually 140K? I am betting it wasn't. So how can you say 80K visas were wasted that year? On the same measure, you are undercounting the EB quota in 2013 for example. That year, the quota was in fact 158K and we received only 3K more, not 21K.

If we get down to such details, it will become a hard affair to determine exactly how many visas were wasted and how many of those are attributable to the USCIS alone.

Finally, my understanding was that AC21 passed in 2000 has already captured a good chunk of visas wasted in the 1990s.

Spec/kanmani/Q/informed souls can comment further.sportsfan,

As you say, it is a little more complicated than that.

Firstly, the existing law already deals with unused visa numbers in a FY. Since they are allocated to the other half of EB/FB the next FY, they can't be said to be wasted.

Secondly, because of the existing law, any calculation would have to calculate the "net" wastage - i.e. unused but never came back to EB either via the existing law or through previous recapture legislation.

130k EB visas (from FY1999/FY2000) were recaptured as part of AC21 (this document (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/FY07_AppD.pdf) outlines when they were recaptured) and a further 50k EB visas were recaptured for use by Schedule A workers in a 2005 Bill.

Recapture proposals have always talked about recapture from FY1992 onwards. From then to date, about 399k visas were unused in EB. This includes the recapture of the 130k in FY2002, FY2005 and FY2007.

It does not count the 50k recaptured for Schedule A, so the figure available reduces to 349k.

In the same period, EB has received a further 289k extra numbers from FB. That would leave a net figure of around 60k (± 5k) that were unused but have never come back to EB through the existing mechanisms.

FB would benefit more, since many of the "unused" visas allotted to them did not increase the actual allocation FB received (due to the much more complex calculation of the FB allocation). That is not a consideration for EB - they receive the full amount from FB.

[qesehmk]

Spec - Thanks. Very useful.
I wonder if they will also consider unused in FB that were NOT spilled over to EB.


sportsfan,

As you say, it is a little more complicated than that.

Firstly, the existing law already deals with unused visa numbers in a FY. Since they are allocated to the other half of EB/FB the next FY, they can't be said to be wasted.

Secondly, because of the existing law, any calculation would have to calculate the "net" wastage - i.e. unused but never came back to EB either via the existing law or through previous recapture legislation.

130k EB visas (from FY1999/FY2000) were recaptured as part of AC21 (this document (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/FY07_AppD.pdf) outlines when they were recaptured) and a further 50k EB visas were recaptured for use by Schedule A workers in a 2005 Bill.

Recapture proposals have always talked about recapture from FY1992 onwards. From then to date, about 399k visas were unused in EB. This includes the recapture of the 130k in FY2002, FY2005 and FY2007.

It does not count the 50k recaptured for Schedule A, so the figure available reduces to 349k.

In the same period, EB has received a further 289k extra numbers from FB. That would leave a net figure of around 60k (± 5k) that were unused but have never come back to EB through the existing mechanisms.

FB would benefit more, since many of the "unused" visas allotted to them did not increase the actual allocation FB received (due to the much more complex calculation of the FB allocation). That is not a consideration for EB - they receive the full amount from FB.

[Spectator]

Spec - Thanks. Very useful.
I wonder if they will also consider unused in FB that were NOT spilled over to EB.Q,

Unless I have misunderstood your point, there are no unused FB visas that did not spill over to EB. EB gets the benefit of every unused FB visa the following FY.


INA 201(d) specifies that the worldwide level of employment-based preference immigrants for a fiscal year is equal to:

140,000
plus family preference immigrant numbers that were unused during the previous fiscal year.

The determination of the EB and FB allocations for FY2004 (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/FY04_AppB.pdf) is a good example of the difference between FB and EB.

Despite FB having an extra 88,482 available from under use in EB in FY2003, the calculation only resulted in a figure of 224,455. Since that was less than the minimum number of 226,000 the FB allocation for FY2004 was set at 226,000.

In contrast, EB had an extra 64,422 available due to FB under use in FY2003. That was fully applied on top of the 140,000 allocation and the EB allocation for FY2004 was set at 204,422.

[qesehmk]

EB gets the benefit of every unused FB visa the following FY.
Spec - this is true since 2007 onwards. I haven't tracked 1992-2007. But if you say so then it must be true.

Edit:

I just checked and it seems that this is true only since 2004 onwards. Prior to that there is significant FB wastage of visas that never was spilled over to EB. Just from 1998-2004 there is a 100K. So I would imagine between 1992-1998 another 100K or more. Thus I believe the total number of visa recapture could be 60K-260K (if there is one).

[gcq]

On the latest announcement by President that he will use EO on immigration.

1. He knows what immigration bill republicans are going to come up with.
2. He has nothing to lose by doing whatever he wants to do.
3. By appeasing to Hispanics and the next generation americans, Democrats will win in the long run if they go with executive order.

Remember what happened with DACA order. Republicans didn't make a noise about it after it was issued. Politicians will make noise only before an immigration law/EO is issued, not after that.

[gs1968]

Spec - this is true since 2007 onwards. I haven't tracked 1992-2007. But if you say so then it must be true.

Edit:

I just checked and it seems that this is true only since 2004 onwards. Prior to that there is significant FB wastage of visas that never was spilled over to EB. Just from 1998-2004 there is a 100K. So I would imagine between 1992-1998 another 100K or more. Thus I believe the total number of visa recapture could be 60K-260K (if there is one).

To Q
Irrespective of what the numbers are and how they are arrived at-the ultimate decision will lie in the hands of the Administration's legal team.Since the Republican outfits will fight every aspect of the EO tooth and nail, they will most likely go with what they can strongly defend in court. As you have already mentioned in a previous post-the legal immigration statutes are very clear with established precedent and any dramatic and novel interpretation after 25 years of the law being in place will raise a lot of questions

[qesehmk]

I agree gs1968. I am not knowledgeable enough to speculate if recapture is legally possible and whether there will be sufficient interest and force to make it happen.

I just laid out the uncaptured FB numbers between 1998-2004 and speculated on the one between 1992-1998.


To Q
Irrespective of what the numbers are and how they are arrived at-the ultimate decision will lie in the hands of the Administration's legal team.Since the Republican outfits will fight every aspect of the EO tooth and nail, they will most likely go with what they can strongly defend in court. As you have already mentioned in a previous post-the legal immigration statutes are very clear with established precedent and any dramatic and novel interpretation after 25 years of the law being in place will raise a lot of questions

[YTeleven]

Hope US will learn the lesson from this...
snapdeal-the-flourishing-company-america-passed-on-offers-a-lesson-about-immigration-reform (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/innovations/wp/2014/11/07/snapdeal-the-flourishing-company-america-passed-on-offers-a-lesson-about-immigration-reform/)

[gs1968]

I agree gs1968. I am not knowledgeable enough to speculate if recapture is legally possible and whether there will be sufficient interest and force to make it happen.

I just laid out the uncaptured FB numbers between 1998-2004 and speculated on the one between 1992-1998.

We will know the answers pretty soon


http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-obama-will-act-on-immigration-despite-gop-warnings-to-hold-off/2014/11/07/5b93c332-66a1-11e4-9fdc-d43b053ecb4d_story.html?hpid=z4

[qesehmk]

There would be lessons here if Entrepreneurial success was a single variable function of Entrepreneurial quality of individuals. IMHO it is a function of
a) the law and order
b) free markets
c) size
d) the times
d) entrepreneurial quality

In that order.... the last being less than 5%. See that's why Buffett and Gates both say over and over that they wouldn't be anywhere nearly as successful had they been born in any other country.


Hope US will learn the lesson from this...
snapdeal-the-flourishing-company-america-passed-on-offers-a-lesson-about-immigration-reform (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/innovations/wp/2014/11/07/snapdeal-the-flourishing-company-america-passed-on-offers-a-lesson-about-immigration-reform/)

[gs1968]

Some action possible as early as next week

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/11/12/source-obama-to-announce-10-point-immigration-plan-via-exec-action-as-early-as/

I wonder what the technology jobs through the state visa program is.Is that EB-based immigration?

It mentions a pathway to citizenship which would not be possible with deferred action which is merely delaying deportation.

Maybe tomorrow morning will bring more clarity from news outlets

P.S-This from Newsmax
In addition, a State Department immigrant visa program involving technology jobs would offer another half-million immigrants a path to citizenship, according to Fox. Spouses also would be helped by the program.

I think this refers to EB backlog clearance although the wording is still unclear

[YTeleven]

Some action possible as early as next week

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/11/12/source-obama-to-announce-10-point-immigration-plan-via-exec-action-as-early-as/

I wonder what the technology jobs through the state visa program is.Is that EB-based immigration?

It mentions a pathway to citizenship which would not be possible with deferred action which is merely delaying deportation.

Maybe tomorrow morning will bring more clarity from news outlets

P.S-This from Newsmax
In addition, a State Department immigrant visa program involving technology jobs would offer another half-million immigrants a path to citizenship, according to Fox. Spouses also would be helped by the program.

I think this refers to EB backlog clearance although the wording is still unclear

It's a great news. We are almost there. Yes it includes EB immigration too.

[eb2ODer]

Sorry, but all this can be strategized clamour... until we hear it from the white horse's mouth.
Read the below from http://thehill.com/homenews/house/223981-report-obama-immigration-plan-expected-next-week

The White House, however, pushed back on Fox News' report after its release.
"The President has not made a decision regarding the specific measures he will take to fix our broken immigration system," a White House spokesperson said in a statement. "In fact, he has not yet received final recommendations from the Department of Homeland Security. As the President has said previously, he is committed to taking action before the end of the year."

[qesehmk]

I wonder what the technology jobs through the state visa program is.Is that EB-based immigration?
..
In addition, a State Department immigrant visa program involving technology jobs would offer another half-million immigrants a path to citizenship, according to Fox. Spouses also would be helped by the program.

I think this refers to EB backlog clearance although the wording is still unclear

I think that's poor reporting. Most likely they are referring to visa recapture for EB categories. Half million sounds pretty good. We will see..

p.s. - On another note I have a real good feeling about the timing of this thing. This is the best time to make it happen for everybody.

[imdeng]

Any indications on the effective date of the EO? Was the original DACA immediately effective?

I would imagine that it would not be a good idea to leave a large time gap between announcement and effective date - will only give opportunity for opponents to raise hell. Once people start getting benefits, it is harder to campaign to take them away.

[qesehmk]

Executive action can be effective immediately. I think this will be effective immediately. Some parts of it may actually be retroactive. e.g. all people who came to US on or before ... etc etc.
Any indications on the effective date of the EO? Was the original DACA immediately effective?

I would imagine that it would not be a good idea to leave a large time gap between announcement and effective date - will only give opportunity for opponents to raise hell. Once people start getting benefits, it is harder to campaign to take them away.

[gs1968]

To Q

Bye-Bye backlog!.NumbersUSA is interpreting the report just like you say

https://www.numbersusa.com/news/report-pres-obama-grant-amnesty-45-million-illegal-aliens-next-week

The executive action would also extend a path to citizenship to 500,000 tech workers and their spouses.

[imdeng]

"Path to Citizenship" is a weird term to use for EB GCs. I wonder if they are talking about the same thing or is it something else? The 500K number would fit EB GCs. "State Dept Visa Program" is also a weird term. Although CO is officially a part of the State Dept - so that also fits somewhat with the EB GC program.

To Q

Bye-Bye backlog!.NumbersUSA is interpreting the report just like you say

https://www.numbersusa.com/news/report-pres-obama-grant-amnesty-45-million-illegal-aliens-next-week

The executive action would also extend a path to citizenship to 500,000 tech workers and their spouses.

[imdeng]

I know there is a letdown hiding somewhere in the details - but I am so excited about the EO prospects. Imagine - No Backlog!!

[gs1968]

I agree that all of this is very confusing but we will know soon. We should also remember that any executive order although immune from the legislative except by means of cutting funding can still be subject to judicial review.As I mentioned a few posts ago,the right leaning outfits (N-USA,FAIR,CIS etc) believe that the law on visa recapture is quite clear and there is going to be significant push back from them.If they decide to fight this legally and have their case ready,they can file an appeal and get what is called a stay of implementation till the legal validity is clarified. We all know how long it takes for these cases to wind their way up the judicial ladder. This may also be a reason why the H-4 EAD issue is in the back burner

[qesehmk]

So here is why I thought this is the best time to make EO happen.

A) The elections are behind now. So nobody gets burnt immediately by acting on it.
B) By doing it now - republicans may think that this is a good way to push this issue behind for 2016. The far right will make usual noises but overall GOP will be happy.
C) The economy gets benefited with a boost of immigration because it lowers the wage for large employers (although it will kill the small businesses who depend on slave labor under or near minimum wage). Net net I think it helps economy.
D) Obama looks victorious and dems can say to latinos ... look we delivered. Better late than never. One reason dems lost so heavy recently was that latinos were turned off and didn't turn up for vote.

Well for whatever reason if EB backlog gets flushed ... that will be a great relief for a lot of folks. Good luck guys.

[kkruna]

"Path to Citizenship" is a weird term to use for EB GCs. I wonder if they are talking about the same thing or is it something else? The 500K number would fit EB GCs. "State Dept Visa Program" is also a weird term. Although CO is officially a part of the State Dept - so that also fits somewhat with the EB GC program.

Also why would it be limited to "tech industry" alone? It is interpretation of the reporter who may not be well versed on immigration matters.

On the face of it it doesn't look like deliberate leak "to gather reaction" - normally such leaks capture the gist well.

Only takeaway is the number 500K approx for EB.

I find it queer to see the mention of "State Department". It's not in keeping with rest of storyline (Obama and EO) and almost pops in as "discrete object" so it probably reflects some part of the plan. Reco by State Department?

[qesehmk]

They are calling it a path to citizenship - which technically is correct but the question is where will the numbers come from.

Last time there was a visa recapture - it was via a legislation. I am not intelligent or knowledgeable enough to say that the president can in his authority ask DoS to issue more visas. Probably he can because if you read carefully any visa bulletin - it talks about the visa limit as "at least". So perhaps there is no legal upper bound on the number of visas. Perhaps Spec (our alter ego for CO) can talk to this. But I think he is busy with something!


To Q

Bye-Bye backlog!.NumbersUSA is interpreting the report just like you say

https://www.numbersusa.com/news/report-pres-obama-grant-amnesty-45-million-illegal-aliens-next-week

The executive action would also extend a path to citizenship to 500,000 tech workers and their spouses.

[imdeng]

IIRC - Spec (aka CO's Alter Ego) does not believe that either Recapture or Dependent Exclusion meet the legal requirements for EO. Again - this is from memory and I might not be recalling it accurately - but I believe Spec's POV is that they can only be done through congressional action and not EO. I will see if I can search the right post out.


They are calling it a path to citizenship - which technically is correct but the question is where will the numbers come from.

Last time there was a visa recapture - it was via a legislation. I am not intelligent or knowledgeable enough to say that the president can in his authority ask DoS to issue more visas. Probably he can because if you read carefully any visa bulletin - it talks about the visa limit as "at least". So perhaps there is no legal upper bound on the number of visas. Perhaps Spec (our alter ego for CO) can talk to this. But I think he is busy with something!

[sportsfan33]

Spec has said and I clearly remember that both dependent exclusion and recapture cannot be done via an EO. His citations were very clear on these topics.

I am very curiously following these developments. They have a bigger subplot IMO. There is just no precedent for a mass amnesty for illegals/relief for legals without congressional support. Both Reagan amnesty and AC21 were achieved by a legislation change.

[imdeng]

Spec's view on dependent counting: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=54191#post54191

[kd2008]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/14/us/obama-immigration.html?_r=0


Mr. Obama’s actions will also expand opportunities for immigrants who have high-tech skills, shift extra security resources to the nation’s southern border, revamp a controversial immigration enforcement program called Secure Communities, and provide clearer guidance to the agencies that enforce immigration laws about who should be a low priority for deportation, especially those with strong family ties and no serious criminal history.

The dole out for legals is fairly ambiguous. It may amount to nothing. Please do not have ANY hopes! Be forewarned. In some ways, I wish our relief comes through a well written law. But at this point I will take anything.

Another observation, Obama's advisers are so lame it is not funny. How much of foot dragging can a President do? Take a dump or get off the pot! This media planting of stories and leaks is tiring. Why can't the WH officially be upfront? Instead they do these leaks and everything to "gauge" the temperature. Bah! What ever!

[gcseeker]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/14/us/obama-immigration.html?_r=0



The dole out for legals is fairly ambiguous. It may amount to nothing. Please do not have ANY hopes! Be forewarned. In some ways, I wish our relief comes through a well written law. But at this point I will take anything.

Another observation, Obama's advisers are so lame it is not funny. How much of foot dragging can a President do? Take a dump or get off the pot! This media planting of stories and leaks is tiring. Why can't the WH officially be upfront? Instead they do these leaks and everything to "gauge" the temperature. Bah! What ever!

Could not have said it better. It would be better if releif came through a well written law....there is a silver lining though, executive orders can be fairly resistant to legal challenge as long as "Prosecutorial discretion" clause is met . This is how Bush got away with many EO's.

http://www.thelegalintelligencer.com/id=1202673346190/Obamas-Immigration-Executive-Order-Would-Follow-Predecessors-Lead?slreturn=20141013134811

If this is done right...will be one final master stroke for the democrats :) , the thing that worries me most is the incompetence of Obama's advisors...they could have done this a long time ago since they knew it would come down to EO.


:) Still will not put it beyond the president to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.....

[gcseeker]

Logically thinking this has strong chance of happening...I never felt comprehensive Immigration reform will go through. As with any issue , better to understand the business reasons behind it rather than hope for altruistic motivations for both parties..

Dems

-Badly demoralized, base is disilluisioned with Bama....Need a motivating factor and this will energize the left.
-Will strengthen Dems with Latinos
-Might be crucial for 2016 elections.
-Legal protections in place, will not get dragged through courts....
-Obama cannot grant citizenship through this route, can only grant EAD's and right to stay.....This will be bitter for Latino activists but everybody cannot get everything.

Repubs

-Will force them to take a stand very early ...they will not want to be seen as alienating the mass Latino base ....they are trying to re-invent themselves ( first african american woman senator from the south for the repubs etc..)
- They can use the no citizenship provision to soothe their base ....no amnesty , no path to citizenship...deported if convicted of felony....
-Repubs will shut down pretty much any other bills for the next two years...

Will be an Scorched earth play by Obama.....It will be pretty much this EO vs anything else passing...Repubs can also fight this in creative ways by hitting the financial funding of the program etc.... depends on how much the Dems feel they lost in the midterms and are willing to risk it

[Spectator]

They are calling it a path to citizenship - which technically is correct but the question is where will the numbers come from.

Last time there was a visa recapture - it was via a legislation. I am not intelligent or knowledgeable enough to say that the president can in his authority ask DoS to issue more visas. Probably he can because if you read carefully any visa bulletin - it talks about the visa limit as "at least". So perhaps there is no legal upper bound on the number of visas. Perhaps Spec (our alter ego for CO) can talk to this. But I think he is busy with something!Q,

I think the "at least" refers to the minimum number as defined in the INA.

For FB, INA 201(c)(ii) says:


(ii) In no case shall the number computed under subparagraph (A) be less than 226,000.

and for EB, INA 201(d)(a) says:


(1) The worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is equal to-


(A) 140,000 plus

The final number can't be computed without some numbers from USCIS, which they release as late as possible in the FY, so most VB use the "at least" language.

[gs1968]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/14/us/obama-immigration.html?_r=0



The dole out for legals is fairly ambiguous. It may amount to nothing. Please do not have ANY hopes! Be forewarned. In some ways, I wish our relief comes through a well written law. But at this point I will take anything.

Another observation, Obama's advisers are so lame it is not funny. How much of foot dragging can a President do? Take a dump or get off the pot! This media planting of stories and leaks is tiring. Why can't the WH officially be upfront? Instead they do these leaks and everything to "gauge" the temperature. Bah! What ever!

Ambiguous it definitely is! The same line in the Fox news report is being interpreted by different people in ways that suit their narrative.
This from FAIR

http://immigrationreform.com/2014/11/13/white-house-source-leaks-details-of-obamas-10-point-executive-amnesty-plan/

A State Department program will offer visas with a pathway to citizenship for 500,000 new technology workers.

This interpretation does not seem to relate to EB GC seekers already in the backlog

[imdeng]

I don't think new visa programs, especially with path to citizenship (i.e through GC) can be established by EA. In general, no new numbers can be issued by EA - it can only be re-configuration of otherwise available numbers.

DACA and relief for undocumented is different since there are no GCs involved - its just deferring enforcement of deportation and providing an EAD/AP meanwhile. This can (and has, in case of original DACA) be done and is likely to pass legal muster. Relief for legal immigrants stuck in GC queue is on much shakier legal foundation.



...
A State Department program will offer visas with a pathway to citizenship for 500,000 new technology workers.

This interpretation does not seem to relate to EB GC seekers already in the backlog

[kuku82]

Is that within EA's scope?

[gcq]

http://www.imminfo.com/News/2014/20141114.html (http://www.imminfo.com/News/2014/Information-leaked.html)

Information leaked concerning the President's executive orders

Initially reported by Fox News, but subsequently confirmed by the New York Times, a White House memo describing the President's proposed administrative immigration relief has leaked. The memo is said to describe ten separate actions. Between the two reports, it's possible to determine nine of them:

1. Obama intends to order changes that will significantly refocus the activities of the government’s 12,000 immigration agents.
2. One key piece of the order, officials said, will allow many parents of children who are American citizens or legal residents to obtain legal work documents and no longer worry about being discovered, separated from their families and sent away.
a. That part of Mr. Obama’s plan alone could affect as many as 3.3 to 4.5 million people who have been living in the United States illegally for at least five years, according to an analysis by the Migration Policy Institute, an immigration research organization in Washington.
b. But the White House is also considering a stricter policy that would limit the benefits to people who have lived in the country for at least 10 years, or about 2.5 million people.
3. Extending protections to more undocumented immigrants who came to the United States as children, and to their parents, could affect an additional one million or more if they are included in the final plan that the president announces.
4. Mr. Obama’s actions will also expand opportunities for immigrants who have high-tech skills, making about 500,000 visas available.
5. shift extra security resources to the nation’s southern border,
6. revamp a controversial immigration enforcement program called Secure Communities,
7. provide clearer guidance to the agencies that enforce immigration laws about who should be a low priority for deportation, especially those with strong family ties and no serious criminal history. A new enforcement memorandum, which will direct the actions of Border Patrol agents and judges at the Department of Homeland Security, the Justice Department and other federal law enforcement and judicial agencies, will make clear that deportations should still proceed for convicted criminals, foreigners who pose national security risks and recent border crossers, officials said.
8. Increase pay for ICE employees
9. DHS also is planning to "promote" the new naturalization process by giving a 50 percent discount on the first 10,000 applicants who come forward, with the exception of those who have income levels above 200 percent of the poverty level.


What will likely happen?
http://www.imminfo.com/News/2014/what-will-likely-happen.html
The most likely result for employment based immigrants will be all employment based visa preference categories, for all countries, becoming "current" immediately. If, as reported, this proposal injects a half million new visas into the EB quota, the number of available visas will be larger than the current backlog - much larger!

The head of the State Department's Visa Office has already offered his opinion on this matter. He believes that all visa categories will become "current" immediately and remain that way for many years into the future.
Prospective employment based immigrants with approved labor certifications or approved I-140 petitions will become eligible to apply for green cards immediately. Others, with labor certifications in process will become eligible to apply as soon as their PERMs are approved.
For those who have adjustment of status applications pending, their applications will become eligible to be approved immediately. As a practical matter, it is going to take the USCIS some time to recall all of those cases from archives and process them to completion, so don't expect to receive an approval notice the day after the President's announcement.

What is the likely timing?
The news reports said that the planned release date is November 21st. Now that the story has been leaked, it may be that the White House will change that date. Over the past few weeks, the President has said consistently that he will act "before the end of this year." Assuming that date is close to the actual announcement date, then it is possible to make some further assumptions as to the timing of subsequent events.
The December Visa Bulletin has already been released. While it is possible that the State Department will issue an update to make all employment based categories "current" as soon as the announcement is made, it is more likely that they will wait until the January Visa Bulletin to do this.
The January Visa Bulletin will be issued around the end of the first week in December, though it will not take effect until January 1, 2015. New applications for adjustment of status, based on that bulletin, may not be filed until the new year. Applications submitted prematurely will be denied. Given the massive number of expected new filings, it will be in your interest to be among the first to file.
For those who have pending AOS applications, it will be possible to begin making inquiries in December. Even though visa numbers may not be current yet, you can still make the USCIS aware of your pending application so that they can order the file returned from archives.
In reality, it will likely be months or years before the USCIS adjudicates all of the currently pending adjustment of status applications. For new filings in 2015, three to five years is a reasonable processing estimate. The USCIS simply doesn't have the bandwidth to process massive numbers of applications.
In the next edition of this newsletter, we will discuss the alternative of overseas consular processing.

[imdeng]

I believe so.

Is that within EA's scope?

[CowBoyInDenial]

Visa recapture is real:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/white-house-considers-timing-of-executive-action-on-immigration-1415912319

Other White House orders are expected to benefit businesses that use large numbers of legal immigrants, such as technology companies. One change under consideration would “recapture” unused visas from previous years to make more visas available to such companies, according to one person familiar with the deliberations.

[imdeng]

This could be the 10th item to add to the list below, from the WSJ article:

the administration also leans toward a change that would make it easier for foreign students to stay in the U.S. after graduation while awaiting employment-based visas.

Visa recapture is real:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/white-house-considers-timing-of-executive-action-on-immigration-1415912319

Other White House orders are expected to benefit businesses that use large numbers of legal immigrants, such as technology companies. One change under consideration would “recapture” unused visas from previous years to make more visas available to such companies, according to one person familiar with the deliberations.

[imdeng]

If you only add up the negative numbers, then you get a number pretty close to 500K (486K in fact). Wonder if that is the rationale for the number floating around.


S.No FY EB TOTAL QUOTA Delta
1 1991 59,525 140,000 -80,475
2 1992 116,198 140,000 -23,802
3 1993 147,012 140,000 7,012
4 1994 123,291 140,000 -16,709
5 1995 85,336 140,000 -54,664
6 1996 117,499 140,000 -22,501
7 1997 90,607 140,000 -49,393
8 1998 77,517 140,000 -62,483
9 1999 56,817 140,000 -83,183
10 2000 111,166 140,000 -28,834
11 2001 186,536 140,000 46,536
12 2002 171,583 140,000 31,583
13 2003 83,020 140,000 -56,980
14 2004 157,107 140,000 17,107
15 2005 242,335 140,000 102,335
16 2006 133,622 140,000 -6,378
17 2007 154,460 140,000 14,460
18 2008 162,949 140,000 22,949
19 2009 140,987 140,000 987
20 2010 150,262 140,000 10,262
21 2011 139,302 140,000 -698
22 2012 144,648 140,000 4,648
23 2013 161,269 140,000 21,269

Totals 3,013,048 3,220,000 206,952

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec. So where do you think these 500K are coming from. A president can't do a visa recapture on his own - can he?


Q,

I think the "at least" refers to the minimum number as defined in the INA.

For FB, INA 201(c)(ii) says:



and for EB, INA 201(d)(a) says:



The final number can't be computed without some numbers from USCIS, which they release as late as possible in the FY, so most VB use the "at least" language.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. So where do you think these 500K are coming from. A president can't do a visa recapture on his own - can he?Q,

If I had to bet, I think that is what he may well do.

The potential problem is that the law already deals with how unused visas should be dealt with (INA 201 (c) & (d)). It's double counting to recapture them in my view because the visas come back from FB under the current law anyway, but there is a precedent, since Congress has recaptured visas in the past. Unfortunately, I think there is a reasonable chance that it could be challenged by the antis.

Personally, I think the non-counting of dependents won't happen, because it is difficult to get around the law (INA 245(b)) that each AOS application approved must reduce the preference visa numbers by one. Each individual, whether the primary applicant or a dependent is currently required to submit an individual AOS application. The Endelman and Mehta article missed that and did not discuss it.

The language about the 500k released to date is very vague and it is not possible to be entirely sure what is being talked about.

Despite my misgivings about the legality, I really am hoping that BO goes large (and takes a calculated risk) in providing relief to the legal community.

[abcx13]

I think as long as the Republicans are unable to get a stay on the EO, any AoS GC applications that are filed and approved while the EO is in force will likely be grandfathered in even if the Republicans win in court later. So this could be huge, particularly if you leverage the EO via CP.

The other thing that you guys aren't factoring in is the business lobby. If Obama does pass an EO, there will be tremendous pressure on the Republicans from big business to not actually challenge it even if they raise hell to pander to the base.

[imdeng]

I guess Obama is counting on the fact that the DC Court of Appeals (which would most likely be the one dealing with any challenge) has recently been "enhanced" with four Obama nominees. The court currently tilts 7 Dems, 4 Reps. Although you can still get an occasional red leaning 3 judge panel (like in the stupid decision on the recent Halbig v. Burwell case), odds are that Obama will get a favorable set of judges who will be dis-inclined to kill his EA.


...
Unfortunately, I think there is a reasonable chance that it could be challenged by the antis.
...

[qesehmk]

Thanks again Spec. I think he will be inclined to do something strongly. This is his last chance to something .... anything. Come may 2015 .... he is going to be a lame duck president once 2016 season starts.
Despite my misgivings about the legality, I really am hoping that BO goes large (and takes a calculated risk) in providing relief to the legal community.

[Kanmani]

I guess Obama is counting on the fact that the DC Court of Appeals (which would most likely be the one dealing with any challenge) has recently been "enhanced" with four Obama nominees. The court currently tilts 7 Dems, 4 Reps. Although you can still get an occasional red leaning 3 judge panel (like in the stupid decision on the recent Halbig v. Burwell case), odds are that Obama will get a favorable set of judges who will be dis-inclined to kill his EA.

imdeng, Obama care was challenged in court because it passed the House and Senate and signed as a law. EO is entirely different from that. Congress would challenge the EO with law codes straight away.

Today, Obama's statement from Burma on Immigration reforms is burning in news . He says before holidays this year!

[kkruna]

imdeng, Obama care was challenged in court because it passed the House and Senate and signed as a law. EO is entirely different from that. Congress would challenge the EO with law codes straight away.

Today, Obama's statement from Burma on Immigration reforms is burning in news . He says before holidays this year!



I hope he staggers the implementation - those already in queue first!

[anuprab]

I have a crazy question and I know the answer is No...so if I am legal and my children are US citizens and I have been living here for more than 10 years can I then ask for reprieve under the provisions for the undocumented that has been floating around? I meet all the criteria and in fact much more :) This will surely wipe away a large part of the EB backlog...ha

[sportsfan33]

I have a crazy question and I know the answer is No...so if I am legal and my children are US citizens and I have been living here for more than 10 years can I then ask for reprieve under the provisions for the undocumented that has been floating around? I meet all the criteria and in fact much more :) This will surely wipe away a large part of the EB backlog...ha

I am not 100% positive on what the EO will accomplish. I have a feeling that millions of undocumented people will get temporary status. I am not convinced that the president can manufacture green cards with a simple EO.

If you are a legal, you already have a temporary status.

If green cards are being given away, then in a way, this reprieve will make sense for legals too. And in fact the 500K people may get in exactly that way. It remains to be seen.

Exciting times!

[anuprab]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2014/11/14/will-president-obama-help-legal-immigrants-too/

finally someone talking about legals. I hope there is something to reduce the backlogs. without that any EO for legals is useless.