Spectator
01-17-2013, 11:37 AM
Dealing With EB3-ROW Reaching The End Of The Current Backlog
I have been thinking about this subject and the lessons that might have been learned from last year, when EB2-IC went through the same process.
What I propose is not necessarily what will happen, but I think it has some logic to it. There may be constraints I am not aware of.
Factors To Balance
a) Use all visas available to the Category in the FY.
b) Approvals should be in PD order as much as possible.
c) Create an Inventory.
What Went Wrong Last Year
1) More approvals to EB2-IC than there were visas available. This caused EB2-WW to retrogress and will likely cause problems for several years.
2) Large numbers of applicants with PDs later than the ending Cut Off Date were approved. This was caused by moving the Cut Off Dates too slowly initially and leaving a late Cut Off Date at a time when new applicants with late PDs were being adjudicated.
In truth, this was not entirely DOS fault. USCIS consistently lied to (or misled, if you want a kinder term) DOS as to potential Demand in both EB1 and EB2-IC.
The only objective achieved successfully was to create a new Inventory, so that future Demand could be gauged more accurately in the future.
Movement Should Start In The April VB
April represents the first month of Q3. There should be at least 6.5k visas available to EB3-ROW in the quarter, which is more than the Demand left.
Why Not March VB?
March is the last month of Q2. Demand remaining from the current backlog is more than available visas. Charles Oppenheim has a statutory 27% overall limit for the quarter which he may not exceed.
Why Not May VB?
This is possible, but it puts heavier reliance on USCIS processing new applications quickly. While USCIS have shown they are quite capable of processing new applications quickly (EB2-IC last year and now EB2-WW), I would not want to rely on USCIS to meet my objectives. Also, there may large numbers of EB2-WW cases to process as well. The total workload may be too high for fast processing to be guaranteed.
Month By Month
April VB
Move the Cut Off Date forward to the maximum it will be this FY, possible 01JAN10.
This ensures a new Inventory will be created.
May VB
Consular Posts report Demand by Category, Country and PD for the next month in advance of the Visa Bulletin publication.
If demand from late PD Consular cases is not too high, maintain the Cut Off Date at 01JAN10.
If demand from late PD Consular cases is too high, retrogress accordingly to control it.
This approach ensures that the Cut Off Date stays as late as possible for 2 months (allowing sufficient time for filings), without allowing late PD cases at Consulates to be approved.
June VB
Retrogress VB to control the number of approvals against the 27% overall limit for the quarter. That will likely be some time in 2007.
July To September VBs
If new applications were first submitted in April, they will possibly start to be adjudicated from July onwards.
Move the Cut Off Date as necessary to control visa usage.
By the time the September VB is published, demand should be sufficiently well known to set a fairly accurate final Cut Off Date for the FY.
I have been thinking about this subject and the lessons that might have been learned from last year, when EB2-IC went through the same process.
What I propose is not necessarily what will happen, but I think it has some logic to it. There may be constraints I am not aware of.
Factors To Balance
a) Use all visas available to the Category in the FY.
b) Approvals should be in PD order as much as possible.
c) Create an Inventory.
What Went Wrong Last Year
1) More approvals to EB2-IC than there were visas available. This caused EB2-WW to retrogress and will likely cause problems for several years.
2) Large numbers of applicants with PDs later than the ending Cut Off Date were approved. This was caused by moving the Cut Off Dates too slowly initially and leaving a late Cut Off Date at a time when new applicants with late PDs were being adjudicated.
In truth, this was not entirely DOS fault. USCIS consistently lied to (or misled, if you want a kinder term) DOS as to potential Demand in both EB1 and EB2-IC.
The only objective achieved successfully was to create a new Inventory, so that future Demand could be gauged more accurately in the future.
Movement Should Start In The April VB
April represents the first month of Q3. There should be at least 6.5k visas available to EB3-ROW in the quarter, which is more than the Demand left.
Why Not March VB?
March is the last month of Q2. Demand remaining from the current backlog is more than available visas. Charles Oppenheim has a statutory 27% overall limit for the quarter which he may not exceed.
Why Not May VB?
This is possible, but it puts heavier reliance on USCIS processing new applications quickly. While USCIS have shown they are quite capable of processing new applications quickly (EB2-IC last year and now EB2-WW), I would not want to rely on USCIS to meet my objectives. Also, there may large numbers of EB2-WW cases to process as well. The total workload may be too high for fast processing to be guaranteed.
Month By Month
April VB
Move the Cut Off Date forward to the maximum it will be this FY, possible 01JAN10.
This ensures a new Inventory will be created.
May VB
Consular Posts report Demand by Category, Country and PD for the next month in advance of the Visa Bulletin publication.
If demand from late PD Consular cases is not too high, maintain the Cut Off Date at 01JAN10.
If demand from late PD Consular cases is too high, retrogress accordingly to control it.
This approach ensures that the Cut Off Date stays as late as possible for 2 months (allowing sufficient time for filings), without allowing late PD cases at Consulates to be approved.
June VB
Retrogress VB to control the number of approvals against the 27% overall limit for the quarter. That will likely be some time in 2007.
July To September VBs
If new applications were first submitted in April, they will possibly start to be adjudicated from July onwards.
Move the Cut Off Date as necessary to control visa usage.
By the time the September VB is published, demand should be sufficiently well known to set a fairly accurate final Cut Off Date for the FY.