EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qesehmk]

SUMMARY

1. We believe the dates should actually move past Q1-2008 in 2012 itself although they are U / unavailable right now for EB2IC.

Reason - The reason behind this optimism is two-fold.
1. The much less than normal EB1 and EB2ROW demand. (This is based on the 485 data published. I was wrong to look at trackitt trend. That data is not useful for predicting EB1 EB2ROW demand in 2012)
2. Q1+Q2 didnt seem to have allocated more visas than normal. This is actually based on trackitt trend and how much 2007 and 2008 is approved vs outstanding.

Bottomline - Although VO has communicated that dates will be U for EB2IC. We believe they will move within 2012 itself and move significantly upto Mid 2008.

Those interested in detailed analysis, graphs and simulation, check out http://whereismygc.com. Disclosure - that is a commercial website.

FACTS AND DATA SECTION
Those wanting to do their own analysis, you can find a treasure of data in FACTS and DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA

Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD<CD (Priority Date within Cut Off Date)
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat).
PWBA - People Waiting for Boat to arrive (i.e. waiting to file 485)
SYA - Same year approvals
R485 - ROW 485 filings in EB2
SFM - Sustainable Forward Movement
BTM - Big Temporary Movement
UFM - Unsustainable Forward Movement
TBM - Temporary Backward Movement

CO - Charles Oppenheim
VO - Visa Office
VB - Visa Bulletin
NVC - National Visa Center
NSC - Nebrasca Service Center
TSC - Texas Service Center

Visa Dates Movement & Retrogression

The visa movement was quite unexpected but the retrogression wasn't. We always maintained that after July 2007 there was a cliff in terms of demand and USCIS needed to build inventory again. How much they built was a matter of policy and they chose to build 3 years of inventory 2007-2010. So our advice is - all the talk about not enough approval cases and low or high EB1 or EB2 ROW demand is all irrelevant at best and misguidance at worst. Just focus on this fact that USCIS needed to build inventory and the way they moved dates was to take a slow orderly intake.

So the movement was UFM so far. Now there will be a severe (more than necessary) retrogression followed by SFM.

May 2007 or prior is what I consider severe. So even that is not sustainable. However two things do NOT bode well for EB2IC

a) EB1 approvals - YTD EB1 has consumed 4 times visas compared to prior year according to trackitt. But that is clouded by the EB1I data and hence more reliable data point is latest 485 inventory which clearly shows EB1 demand at about 2K max per month.
b) EB2IC YTD approvals - It seems EB2IC has already consumed minimum of 17K and probably upto 24K of visas. However given the weaker eB2ROW and EB1 demand, it means they received that much SOFAD because and not inspite of EB1 EB2ROW demand. In other words - This only means that there is Q3/Q4 SOFAD still left for EB2IC.
c) EB2ROW - This too has shows signficant slow down. Again check 485 inventory to see this.

Thus I do not agree with CO or DoS that there won't be any more visas during remainde of the year. Neither I see why ROW should retrogress at all.

I-140 Statistics and SOFAD

Here is interesting I-140 statistics:
I-140 numbers are very interesting since they show secular trend unlike 485 which fluctuates based on vias bulletin dates movement.

2011 I-140 filings ~82000.
2012 I-140 filings ~32K for Q1+Q2 which implies 64K for full year.
That's 20-22% reduction compared to prior year. In terms of extra SOFAD that means approx. 18K extra visas to EB2IC (assuming A) a conservative split of 50-50 between EB1+EB2ROW and rest, and B) 2 visas per I-140.0.

Even if you assume EB2IC has already received 32K visas so far. That still means 18K more are yet to come. We will see... Good luck!


Latest Visa Bulletin Analysis

First CO stayed true to his words and retrogressed.

However some of the language in the VB is a bit too far:

1) Saying that ROW might need retrogression is being too pessimistic (some calculations below)
2) Saying that he will try to reach 2010 for EB2IC in 2013 is too optimistic if he is thinking of clearing EB2IC backlog without HR3012.

So here is the situation as of now.

FACT 1 - 50% of newly filed (i.e. post Aug 2007) 2007 cases are approved.
FACT 2 - 30% of 2008 cases are approved.
FACT 3 - 0% of 2009 and older cases are approved.
FACT 4 - 20% of EB1 cases from 2009-2011 are unapproved.

Worst Case Situation Analysis for EB2ROW - This indicates at approx 2K per month - 12-14K EB2IC cases approved as of now. => 2-3K EB2C approved. So 17K SOFAD so far.

in order for EB2IC to NOT have any more - means EB1 and EB2ROW MUST consume all remaining visas. EB2ROW last year already probably ran at full capacity. EB1 this year is running 3-4 times higher rates compared to prior year. This together doesnt work well for EB2IC.

EB2ROW consumption can't pace at a faster rate than EB2IC. So even if we assume there is no demand destruction for EB2IC, EB2ROW should come in at full year number of 26-34K MAX. Which means that there shouldn't be EB2ROW retrogression (at least for more than a couple of months).

So it is unnecessary pessimism to talk about EB2ROW retrogression.


Trackitt Trend


Here is what the trackitt data shows. Don't focus on the extrapolations - since they are quite out of whack.

I have put it together only to show the fallacy of using trackitt trend. Given the YoY variances - I would suggest using trackitt data in a relative manner i.e. % approved in a year and then extrapolating that to an absolute number. But I would caution that using the data put together here is meaningless yet - I did it only to show the pitfall of using it rather than actually using it for predictions.

[Spectator]

Early Analysis For FY2013

Posted September 07, 2012

This is my third post for FY2013, such has been the changing outlook. My first post was fairly pessimistic. That was replaced by one that was far more optimistic, but containing assumptions that made it so.

The outlook has turned more pessimistic again with the release of notes form a discussion with Charles Oppenheim.

The usage of EB1 seems to have increased even more and EB2-WW may again become retrogressed in late FY2013.

The uncertainty is such that I can only give Best and Worst Scenarios. Rather than SOFAD, I will talk about Spillover numbers, since none will go to EB2-China.

Best Scenario

The best scenario is that despite the warnings, EB1 provides 5k of spillover. In addition, EB5 still manages to provide 2k of spillover.

In addition, EB2-WW has no need of any spillover visas.

EB2-I would have access to about 9.7k total visas.

Porting is the big unknown and it has a large affect on movement when visa numbers are relatively low.

I am going to use the DOS Demand figures for September as the base numbers, with pre 2008 numbers prorated as per the May 2012 Inventory.

If porting was 4.5k then COD could move to the end of 2007.

If porting was 6k then COD could move to November 2007.

If spillover were only 5k (7.8k available to EB2-I) and porting 4.5k, then COD could move to about October 2007.

If spillover were only 5k and porting 6k, then COD could move to about July 2007.

Since USCIS do not strictly process by FIFO, the dates could be slightly more than that.

Worst Scenario

This doesn't bear thinking about.

EB2-I would only have 2.8k visas available.

Even if a small amount of spillover were available, it is possible that EB2-WW would consume it.

Even with quite modest porting numbers, the dates would likely retrogress to a date before 2006, or become Unavailable.

Tailwinds would be:

Not sure there are many.

Head winds would be:
(a) The Demand Data numbers may rise. That is probably a lower risk for the PD involved.

(b) More Porting cases with PD before August 2007 will be added throughout the FY than anticipated. Many may be pending the final interfiling step from this FY.

(c) Heavy EB1 Use. Relatively less likely, as numbers have returned to somewhere approaching expected numbers in FY2012.

(d) Increased EB5 usage. Not strictly relevant, because EB5 is likely to approach the maximum number allowable in FY2013.

If CO moves the Cut Off Dates too aggressively early in the year, he will risk repeating what has happened this year.

I would expect, especially considering the EB2-C position, for CO to move Cut Off Dates cautiously for the first 2/3 quarters and then balance them based on any further spare visas that are actually available in Q3/Q4.

This would be a return to the previous method, where spillover was not released until relatively late in the year, when actual numbers could be better judged.


Analysis for Quarter 4 of FY2012

Posted July 03,2012

Going into Q4, it appears that EB2 has used as many as 49k total visas.

At this level, it should probably be made Unavailable, which a Cut Off Date of 01JAN09 effectively is for EB2-WW.

The problem with ACTUALLY making it Unavailable is that it would put all the eggs in the EB1 basket, with no other Category to take up any late slack towards the 140k total.

EB1 appears to have used about 29k visas to the end of Q3 FY2012. Given the usage in EB2, it also appears that the maximum number available to the Category is around 35-36k.

At current usage of EB1 visas, EB1 is capable of reaching this figure before the end of the FY. There remains the possibility that EB1 (or at least some Countries) will have a Cut Off Date imposed before the year end.

Total visas for the year may run out in early September, which represents a week earlier than normal.


Analysis for the Second half of FY2012

Posted February 20,2012

Although this may not be a popular view, or shared by other Guru's on the forum, this is how I see the current situation after CO's recent announcement. It assumes he is not spinning another yarn.

Whether he actually believed it or not, CO has until now used an assumption that EB1 was going to use the same low numbers of visas as last year.

This allowed him to project a large number of spillover visas for the year (about 35k) and rapidly move the Cut Off Dates forward.

As well as being advantageous to him to build up an Inventory, it also allowed tens of thousands of EB2-IC applicants to submit their I-485 and benefit from EAD and AP.

Possibly, given their past performance, CO wanted a large inventory quickly, so there would be enough "easy" cases for USCIS to ensure that the available visas would be used by the end of the year.

Rapid, early advancement gave USCIS the maximum amount of time to adjudicate the cases.

I think CO has been surprised by the speed with which USCIS has processed the number of cases they have received and it is certainly unusual.

EB1 was never going to provide the same sort of numbers in FY2012 as it did in FY2011. The reasons for this were discussed as long ago as July 2011, based on published I-140 data. The effects of Kazarian were the driver for low numbers in FY2011.

SOFAD at a level of 30-35k is only possible if EB1 provides large numbers to fall down, otherwise the EB2-non IC approvals become far too low to be believable.

Assuming that EB5 visas will still be available via EB1, IMO the practical range of SOFAD ranges from under 20k to about 24k.

24k SOFAD would be made up of :

EB1 -------- 0
EB2-IC --- 5.6
EB2-MP --- 3.0
EB2-ROW - 10.4
EB5 ------ 5.0

Total --- 24.0

That says EB2-ROW would only use about 18.5k. Currently they are on track to use more than that, but a slower H2 is possible. In FY2011, it appears that EB2-ROW used about 25k, so it represents a big drop.

Personally, I think EB5 will yield not more than 4k this year, some of which could be used by EB1 in the worst case.

In the best case, EB1 won't quite reach the 40k limit and provide a few k towards spillover.

Although the exact number is unknown, I think most people believe EB2-IC will reach at least 20k visas used by the end of March 2012.

That leaves very few visas left for the second half of the year. Porting cases and those earlier 2007 cases that have not yet been adjudicated can probably use up the remaining visas over a 6 month period.

If they don't, by August/September 2012, there will be no shortage of pre-adjudicated EB2-IC cases that can be approved quickly if the Cut Off Dates are relaxed.

I do not see the Cut Off Dates touching 2008 again in FY2012 if the dates do retrogress back to August 2007, unless EB1 does provide some spillover.

In fact, it is difficult to see how many visas can be approved in April. If they are, it makes the situation even more perilous. Edit:- Clearly, it wasn't possible, as the announcement of internal retrogression from March 23 2012 proved.

Come October 2012, there will be a large number of pre-adjudicated cases ready to approve. Cut Off Dates will move according to the number of visas available in Q1 2013. Assuming QSP is employed again, the dates can move forward several months from the ending point in FY2011.

Large forward movement in the Cut off dates will not occur again until the new Inventory approaches exhaustion.

[TeddyKoochu]

Following is the current trend based on the dashboard, Trackitt and other news and information.

GC Issuance date based on 25K will be 15-DEC-2007 - 01-JAN-2008 by the end of FY 2012.

Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012 does not go through.
Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008 (This is purely if CO feels additional Intake is required, this scenario is possible if CO is projecting 30K SOFAD in that case he only has 2K buffer may need more).
Possibility 50% - Dates retrogress back, this would mean 16.5K Sofad now has to be adjusted in 8 bulletins; this may mean that the dates go back to somewhere Jun 2007 for the first batch.

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is a 7K buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor based on likelihood of passage in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

The 7K buffer is calculated as - 8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months) - 25K (SOFAD)
If HR 3012 becomes the law of the land then EB2 I/C date will reach 01-JAN-2009 by the end of FY 2012.

- The current consumption is 8.5K; this is based on the fact that the October demand data showed 8.5K and looks like all preadjudicated cases from Jul 2007 are approved now. The demand data came down to 0 in December.
-We expect that 3.5K PWMB cases that have PD's between 15th Apr and 15th Jum would have been filed.
- This makes the demand + consumption pre Jul 15th 2007 = 12K. So to achieve 25K another 13K of intake is required.
- Porting I believe is just 3K per annum in fact the effective reduction in the EB3 inventory shows even less, however we must offset for local office cases that were added midyear. The inventory approach only helps to measure porting for preadjudicated cases only, post Jul 2007 the EB2 – EB3 ratio is 75-25 this accounts for porting for non preadjudicated cases. Most people post Jul 2007 did not have the benefit of EAD/AP and they have converted to EB2 already or are in the process. The ratio of 75-25 already accounts for this.
- For EB2 the dependent ratio is 2.125 this is under the assumption that people will be quite rarely single and 1 in 8 families are highly likely to have atleast 1 non-us born kid.
-The perm computations suggest that there may result in ~ 2200 EB2 I485's per month. Past history suggests a very good correlation between the number of I+C perms and I485’s with the correlation coefficient being 1. Now if we distribute porting evenly over the year we can approximate the density to 2500 per month. This works very well to the duration of Jul 2007 to Jul 2008. CP is quite small for EB2 I/C this may just add as a buffer to make the 2500 per month flat figure look centrist neither too liberal and nor too conservative.
Many people believe that there was demand destruction due to the bad market situation the ratio of 1 account for 38% demand destruction implicitly as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62. Most conservative calculations would only assume 20% demand destruction for all reasons.
.-With 8 months of intake from Jul 15 to Mar 15 the intake this far has been 20K.
- This means CO is still short of the 30K mark which we believe is last year’s SOFAD. There will be no movement in the next bulletin only if they intend to have a 0 buffer or expect less than 30K SOFAD, the dashboard model does suggest that the Sofad this year maybe 5k lesser due to the approval of 20K additional I140’s in the last more months assuming 50% of this was absorbed in FY 2011 (In the later part of the last quarter movement was extremely limited) and 50% will carry over to FY-2012.

DASHBOARD TREND
The USCIS dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1) trend is good in terms of increased efficiency but quite bad for SOFAD. The backlog has come down from 25K to 17K which means a reduction of 8K. Another interesting point to note is that Sep 2012 saw an almost unprecedented number of completions 12K compared to just 5K in Sep 2010, this was a time when the VB did not advance for EB2 I/C in 2011.
All in all if the backlog reduction for I140 happens at this kind of pace we will not see 30K SOFAD this year by any chance. This will now significantly slow down actual EB2 I/C approvals that are Spillover dependent because they may have enough Eb2 I/C cases. An interesting thing could be how much of the impact of this was absorbed in FY 2011 itself because quite literally some of the concurrently filed cases for EB2 I/C cases would have been approved immediately after the I140 would have been approved. Assuming that 50% of the impact will be felt in 2012 SOFAD may come down by atleast 5K assuming the correction in backlog by ~ 12K in the preceding 3 months (I140 normally takes 3 months to hit I485). By this CO may have enough people by the Mar 15th 2008 date assuming the SOFAD expected is 25K and not 30K. The dates can move forward in the next VB only if the target for SOFAD is 30K, so I would scale down my expectations to maximum of 1.5-2 months in the best case scenario, there may also be a chance that in the next bulletin they may now scale the dates back for actual approvals assuming the intake is sufficient in the worst case scenario.

TRACKITT TREND
EB2-ROW appears to be using less visas, but EB1 continues to consume a worryingly large number.
TRACKITT TREND
Following is a compare of the EB2 row and EB1 trend so far. The month of Jan is still in progress so the overall 2012 tally will be higher finally. All data is for primary approved cases from Oct – Jan for the respective years.
EB1 (A+B+C)
2011 - 17+21+23 = 61
2012 - 23+42+92 = 157

The number of EB1C approvals is almost at 4 times of last year. While EB1A is at the same level EB1B vases are also double now this may indicate that the impact of the Kazarian memo is now receding. Most EB1C cases will use up more visas as these folks are less likely to have us born kids as a lot of them will be in the age group 35-40 when they would have filed I140 & I485. Most of Trackitt EB1C is from India so the data should not be taken at absolute face value. The trend correlates well with high I140 approvals just prior to the start of FY 2012.
EB2 ROW
2011 - 108
2012 – 158

EB2 row is still underperforming but has picked up from the 50% line; row has a tendency to pick up later in the year. Partly this may have been due to the prevailing wage stoppage.
For now it appears that the 12K SOFAD that we got from EB1 will most likely not be available this year. EB2 ROW will hopefully compensate some of the loss. Also the Oct filers / Nov filers (Very Few) approvals for EB2 I/C have slowed down they have not been all inclusive either for Oct filers, normally when numbers are available in good supply everyone gets approved.
This maybe just my theory, I believe that CO allocated the entire 5.6K India / China annual cap in Oct itself in the month of Oct QSP quantity / volume cannot be judged. The rest of the approvals which is easily 12K including porting have come by quarterly spillover. This way CO is in fact ahead of QSP at this point and a very significant portion of the SOFAD has been used.
Good luck to everyone for the next VB which might go either way. Demand destruction is a factor for the new intake however this year since the wiggle room offered by the SOFAD left is not very much it will not significantly impact the approval line. For example an OR of .8 as opposed to 1 just causes a difference of ~ 2K numbers assuming that SOFAD will be 22K and 12K is consumed so 10K is left.

I hope this is helpful, please use this information based on your individual judgment & discretion. Comments, critique, suggestions and corrections are welcome and are appreciated.

[nishant2200]

Assumption of 2.5k density a month.

Expected final date movement by Q4 FY 2012: somewhere in May - June 2008

Expected GC issuance: somewhere in December 2007-January 2008 border

Spillover:

EB1 : 5k (backlog and no change in incoming demand)
EB2 ROW : 8k (taking a gamble here, betting on less incoming demand)
EB4 : 0
EB5 : 5k (inspite of USCIS encouraging this category, the messed up economy makes it really not that tempting IMHO)
EB2IC : 5.6k
Total SOFAD: 23.6k

Expected worst case porting: 4k

QSP shall be utilized at CO's discretion and that shall help us. Any quarter in which demand for our SO source categories is less and / or USCIS does not step up on backlog reduction, we shall benefit if CO does QSP.

[veni001]

Veni's 2012 preliminary predictions.

Spillover est. from EB1 ~6,000
Spillover est. from EB2ROW-M-P ~6,000
EB2IC regular allocation ~5,600
Spillover est. from EB4 ~ 0
Spillover est. from EB4 ~5,000

Total SOFAD ~=22.6k

[UkayDkay]

Congratulatons on 2011 success and wish you guys the energy & enthusiasm to carry it into 2012. Looking forward & keep the ball rolling.

[soggadu]

naya thread...naya physical saal (sorry fiscal year) mubharak sab ko....

(New thread...new physical year (sorry fiscal year) congratulations all for.... ) as need by visa+gc+info bhai... cant really translate somethings...understand that you are not missing any information regarding gc and visa if it is in hindi ;-)

my avatar... i am in status quo with this avatar till something good happens and some rainbow to shine after this rain... I am basically a villain until then... sorry Q's princess....

2 cents for all those waiting for VB...Dont keep any hopes... aaya toh aaya, baaki sab maaya...

only prayer...God make teddy bhai current..he truly deserves and had waited patiently....

[visagcinfo]

Allright.. in about a weeks time, this post is going to be busy!!

Q.. couple of things:
"CO" needs to be added to the Acronyms section.
when Hindi is used to write in the post, it would be nice to provide translation as well.

[soggadu]

Allright.. in about a weeks time, this post is going to be busy!!

Q.. couple of things:
"CO" needs to be added to the Acronyms section.
when Hindi is used to write in the post, it would be nice to provide translation as well.

also wondering visagcinfo bhai...if it is in tamil, telugu, kannada, marati, bengali or any other language...dont u need translation... just wondering... you know all just but hindi...parantu kyooun????

[qesehmk]

Thank you. Added CO & VO.

Point well taken on Hindi. Will do going fwd.


Allright.. in about a weeks time, this post is going to be busy!!

Q.. couple of things:
"CO" needs to be added to the Acronyms section.
when Hindi is used to write in the post, it would be nice to provide translation as well.

[nishant2200]

The countdown begins.

Do you guys think VB will come on the 7th friday itself. I feel there is no point in gauging demand for previous bulletin for a day or two more, as well it's just PWMB. Why would CO wait till 10th monday.

A clarification gurus, do we consider people from jul 15 2007 to aug 15 2007 as PWMB, n what is estimated rough quantum of them.

[visagcinfo]

Oops.. meant to say non-English :-( I wouldn't even be able to figure out what exactly was the language in which it was written, could probably say south or north.


also wondering visagcinfo bhai...if it is in tamil, telugu, kannada, marati, bengali or any other language...dont u need translation... just wondering... you know all just but hindi...parantu kyooun????

[gcseeker]

Nishant bhai

I have an similar feeling that it might come out on the 7th ,though going by previous dates the bulletins have always come around the 10th/9th.

Well anywaz here's hoping it goes till end of Nov 2007.Actually gut feeling that it will be Nov 15th 2007 in this bulletin itself and maybe CO will move it till Dec/Jan2008 by next one.

Hope it does.This particular one is making me very tense.

The countdown begins.

Do you guys think VB will come on the 7th friday itself. I feel there is no point in gauging demand for previous bulletin for a day or two more, as well it's just PWMB. Why would CO wait till 10th monday.

A clarification gurus, do we consider people from jul 15 2007 to aug 15 2007 as PWMB, n what is estimated rough quantum of them.

[iatiam]

I have a question on the density of I-485 once the gates have been opened. This has probably been discussed, debated and dissected several times, but for some reasons, just does not pass the smell test (to me, at least).

Looking at the EB2I I-485 inventory on May, 2010 the number of pending I-485 applications range from 1.2K to 1.8K. Guru's have been predicting an I-485 inventory of 2.5K from Aug 2007 to June 2008. Why would the number of I-485 applications be at least 50% higher from pre-Aug 2007 days considering the fact that the economy was pretty bad and that processes like pre-approved PERM were non-existent.

Now, past the summer of 2008, the PERM numbers fall off the cliff, but is still in the 1.8K range. How does that happen? From my own personal example, we were all getting one or the other of our friends getting laid off at that time. Our first concern was a pay check. GC was not even in the picture.

If this is a stupid question, please pardon me.

IATIAM

[nishant2200]

I hope you are correct. Assumptions have been made that 60% EB2 of the PERM, 80% approval of 140, 15% drop out rate out of these eligible to file 485 for 2007.

These are reflected in Spec's figures he has put up in header of thread.

Only way we can know if actual drop out is bigger is from future time elapse leading to data reports, like a pending 485 report or demand data that reflects new intake date movement qualified.

Again, we all wish drop out is higher and we get pleasantly surprised.


I have a question on the density of I-485 once the gates have been opened. This has probably been discussed, debated and dissected several times, but for some reasons, just does not pass the smell test (to me, at least).

Looking at the EB2I I-485 inventory on May, 2010 the number of pending I-485 applications range from 1.2K to 1.8K. Guru's have been predicting an I-485 inventory of 2.5K from Aug 2007 to June 2008. Why would the number of I-485 applications be at least 50% higher from pre-Aug 2007 days considering the fact that the economy was pretty bad and that processes like pre-approved PERM were non-existent.

Now, past the summer of 2008, the PERM numbers fall off the cliff, but is still in the 1.8K range. How does that happen? From my own personal example, we were all getting one or the other of our friends getting laid off at that time. Our first concern was a pay check. GC was not even in the picture.

If this is a stupid question, please pardon me.

IATIAM

[nishant2200]

Nishant bhai

I have an similar feeling that it might come out on the 7th ,though going by previous dates the bulletins have always come around the 10th/9th.

Well anywaz here's hoping it goes till end of Nov 2007.Actually gut feeling that it will be Nov 15th 2007 in this bulletin itself and maybe CO will move it till Dec/Jan2008 by next one.

Hope it does.This particular one is making me very tense.

Just calling me nishant is ok!

Yes, me too getting on the edge. Your thoughts do sound correct too. I honestly feel they should do one big one in next VB and maybe a small addenda in next, this would also give ample time for people to file. They definitely cant hold the line for more than two VB more.

[ssvp22]

Just calling me nishant is ok!

Yes, me too getting on the edge. Your thoughts do sound correct too. I honestly feel they should do one big one in next VB and maybe a small addenda in next, this would also give ample time for people to file. They definitely cant hold the line for more than two VB more.

Considering the fact that any movement that needs to be done, has to be done by March 2012, doing 2 month movement for the next 5 months will get hard to justify for CO by the time we hit Jan since there would already be cases in the pipeline that cannot legally be assigned Visa number. Hence it has to be 3 month each or 4 month each for next 2 months, depending on the target month in 2007/2008 that CO wants to reach. Anyhow, i think there seems to be some special provision in the law that enables them to take any amount of input of cases irrespective of the visa numbers left. Else there wont have been any movement in Oct.

[Spectator]

I have a question on the density of I-485 once the gates have been opened. This has probably been discussed, debated and dissected several times, but for some reasons, just does not pass the smell test (to me, at least).

Looking at the EB2I I-485 inventory on May, 2010 the number of pending I-485 applications range from 1.2K to 1.8K. Guru's have been predicting an I-485 inventory of 2.5K from Aug 2007 to June 2008. Why would the number of I-485 applications be at least 50% higher from pre-Aug 2007 days considering the fact that the economy was pretty bad and that processes like pre-approved PERM were non-existent.

Now, past the summer of 2008, the PERM numbers fall off the cliff, but is still in the 1.8K range. How does that happen? From my own personal example, we were all getting one or the other of our friends getting laid off at that time. Our first concern was a pay check. GC was not even in the picture.

If this is a stupid question, please pardon me.

IATIAMiatiam,

It is certainly not a stupid question. I also believe in the maxim of common sense. If something fails that test then it probably isn't true (or is a least highly suspicious).

I can't speak for others, but I am not using figures of 2.5k EB2-I I-485s per month.

It is true that just using 60:40 ratio for EB2:EB3 based on PERM Certifications would give a figure of about 2.4k EB2-I cases per month.

In the tables I have produced, as Nishant said, I am also assuming only 80% I-140 were approved and that 15% of 2007 cases no longer exist and 10% of 2008 cases no longer exist for various reasons.

Overall, this means that only 68% of 2007 PD cases remain and 72% of 2008 cases.

For September to December 2007, that gives an average of 1.65k cases per month (ranging from 1.57 to 1.82k).

For 2008, the average number of cases per month is 1.74k ranging from (1.44 to 2.15k).

2009 numbers are much less.

These numbers are very much in line with numbers seen in previous USCIS Inventories. Also bear in mind that the numbers for May-August 2007 are understated, since there were/are considerable PWMB for these months.

Any Porting numbers are in addition to these figures.

Also remember that EB2-C are also competing for numbers and average 300-350 cases per month.

At the end of the day, they can only be best estimates and the assumptions cannot be tested yet. If new cases remain unadjudicated long enough as we approach and pass the end of the current backlog, we may be able to test the assumptions against reality and adjust the numbers accordingly.

I always try to lay out all the assumptions. I leave it to you to judge whether the numbers sound sensible or not - they may not to you.

[nishant2200]

The really tricky part is that the real result of a date movement can only be known by the time they get to do the next to next bulletin release. And that too we are basing on the common sense fact that they must have set a mechanism with USCIS to let DOS know about the receipt of I-485s for EB2 I and C. Else DOS would be totally blind until the 485 would actually come into demand data.

About the provision in law, I don't think there is any such law specifically. The law as it looks like was never made with multi-year backlogs or huge spillovers or huge processing backlogs in mind. There was also an era when visa wastage was not frowned upon. It was very simple minded one might say. It's basically few basic premises which DOS/CO might have jotted down in order of some priority. For example, one such rule set in order of priority might be:

Postulate No 1: Do not waste any Visas.
Postulate No 2: Follow the law for the allocation with regards to categories being current, numerical limits for retrogressed categories, and the Spill over distribution.

Just the above two simple premises would lead to a number of "delicious" decisions by DOS/CO. And as long as these basic premises are communicated to USCIS, Ombudsman, Congress, and what have you, and the stakeholders are in communication and agreement, no one is going to go over the lawbook and preach to them, so it seems to me.


Considering the fact that any movement that needs to be done, has to be done by March 2012, doing 2 month movement for the next 5 months will get hard to justify for CO by the time we hit Jan since there would already be cases in the pipeline that cannot legally be assigned Visa number. Hence it has to be 3 month each or 4 month each for next 2 months, depending on the target month in 2007/2008 that CO wants to reach. Anyhow, i think there seems to be some special provision in the law that enables them to take any amount of input of cases irrespective of the visa numbers left. Else there wont have been any movement in Oct.

[ssvp22]

The really tricky part is that the real result of a date movement can only be known by the time they get to do the next to next bulletin release. And that too we are basing on the common sense fact that they must have set a mechanism with USCIS to let DOS know about the receipt of I-485s for EB2 I and C. Else DOS would be totally blind until the 485 would actually come into demand data.

About the provision in law, I don't think there is any such law specifically. The law as it looks like was never made with multi-year backlogs or huge spillovers or huge processing backlogs in mind. There was also an era when visa wastage was not frowned upon. It was very simple minded one might say. It's basically few basic premises which DOS/CO might have jotted down in order of some priority. For example, one such rule set in order of priority might be:

Postulate No 1: Do not waste any Visas.
Postulate No 2: Follow the law for the allocation with regards to categories being current, numerical limits for retrogressed categories, and the Spill over distribution.

Just the above two simple premises would lead to a number of "delicious" decisions by DOS/CO. And as long as these basic premises are communicated to USCIS, Ombudsman, Congress, and what have you, and the stakeholders are in communication and agreement, no one is going to go over the lawbook and preach to them, so it seems to me.

We also need to factor in that DoS, USCIS, and attorneys will be pretty much in vacation from December 20th to Jan 15th. I remember i had got audit on my Labor in late december(Christmas present from DoL), and i was not able to file a reply till late Jan. So, if any of us are expecting movement in December VB, it is imperative that one should have the complete 485 package read to go, else either the attorney is going to messup, or the doctor, or the USCIS, and if there is retrogression on Jan 10, you are going to miss the boat.

[gc_usa]

The countdown begins.

Do you guys think VB will come on the 7th friday itself. I feel there is no point in gauging demand for previous bulletin for a day or two more, as well it's just PWMB. Why would CO wait till 10th monday.

A clarification gurus, do we consider people from jul 15 2007 to aug 15 2007 as PWMB, n what is estimated rough quantum of them.

CO gets reports from all consulate around 8th and Monday eve or Tue morning it can go into production.

[gc_usa]

Hello Folks

My Guess for EB2 IC is Feb 2008 in Nov 2011 bulletin. What do you think ?

[kd2008]

Oct 10 is Columbus Day which is a federal holiday. So DoS and USCIS will be enjoying a long weekend.

[gc_usa]

Oct 10 is Columbus Day which is a federal holiday. So DoS and USCIS will be enjoying a long weekend.

Also I think next two bulletin will be published later so DOS can get I 485 receipt data from USCIS for at least half month and decide based on that.

[rdsingh79]

My guess is that EB2IC cut-off date would be set at Oct 15 2007.


Hello Folks

My Guess for EB2 IC is Feb 2008 in Nov 2011 bulletin. What do you think ?

[gcdedo]

Just wanted to thanks guys. You do an awesome job.
I have been reading this forum for over a month and finally registered :cool::cool:

[natvyas]

Q can your source provide some information about the release date of VB and movement of COD?

Cheers
Nat

[mrperfect]

Veteren follower .. New to Post

Guys I have been following this group for a while.. I always wonder how you guys find time to discuss every little piece of this puzzle in detail, even after getting greened.. I really don't worry about my PD anymore.. anything positive decision by USCIS helping my fellow buddies will always cheer me up.. sincerely thank every one this group for keeping everyone hopes alive

[qblogfan]

gc_usa bhai, I hope your guess will come to true!

keep fingers crossed!


Hello Folks

My Guess for EB2 IC is Feb 2008 in Nov 2011 bulletin. What do you think ?

[nishant2200]

Oct 10 is Columbus Day which is a federal holiday. So DoS and USCIS will be enjoying a long weekend.

wov! good find. if so, I believe in fact, there is more reason to CO to try to push for friday release of VB.

All the consulates etc. all round the world, they all follow US holidays as well as local holidays (would love to work there). So in fact, if they don't publish on friday, for sure, it's no brainer it will be on late tuesday only.

[nishant2200]

Hello Folks

My Guess for EB2 IC is Feb 2008 in Nov 2011 bulletin. What do you think ?

It may sound difficult, but you never know. it's anyone's guess now. Anything is possible if they intend to move dates just for grabbing inventory. Let's keep our hopes in check though, let's not get disappointed too much later. Prepare for worst case of say just one month move also, aside from dreaming of 2008.

[qblogfan]

nishant bhai, congratulations to you! I just noticed you are upgraded to a guru!

I think what you said makes perfect sense. The movement can range from 1 to 6 months. Anything is possible.


It may sound difficult, but you never know. it's anyone's guess now. Anything is possible if they intend to move dates just for grabbing inventory. Let's keep our hopes in check though, let's not get disappointed too much later. Prepare for worst case of say just one month move also, aside from dreaming of 2008.

[nishant2200]

2010:

Columbus day: Monday the 11th of October

Nov VB released: Friday the 8th of October

2009:

Columbus day: Monday the 12th of October

Nov VB released: Friday the 9th of October

2008:

Columbus day: Monday the 13th of October

Nov VB released: Wednesday the 8th of October

Now the interesting one:

2007:

Columbus day: Monday the 8th of October

Nov VB released: Friday the 5th of October

2006:

Columbus day: Monday the 9th of October

Nov VB released: Friday the 6th of October



I randomly clicked on few VBs in past years, and definitely VB have been released before 8th, it's not a new precedent.

[needid]

Spec, Admire your work, Every assumption is quantified for its quality. You leave the numbers to have assumptions included without any footnotes.

Q, The ecosystem that you created is great. There are parallel contradicting theories, but each is given its own space.
Teddy, Nishant, you are the people who keeps the spirits high even when the odds are against us.
With last week in Oct 2007 PD, i am anxious about next VB. I hope DOS random theory favor us.

[ssvp22]

Prepare for worst case of say just one month move also, aside from dreaming of 2008.

I will agree with this.

[10102007]

I'm glad you took the time to check this out. So it is Friday then. All the very best to everybody who are anxiously waiting.

Meanwhile folks, we have discussed so much about being 'slaves' and 'hostages'. Let us say you get your GC soon and you go on to start a business, please see if you can take this pledge (http://site.business-ethics-pledge.org/take-the-pledge/). You don't have to sign this, but at least read the pledge and say to yourself that you will follow it.

There are people, instead of learning something positive from the treatment meted out to them, have turned out to be an exact or worse copy of their former 'employers'. Let us create a positive environment for all folks who are involved.



2010:

Columbus day: Monday the 11th of October

Nov VB released: Friday the 8th of October

2009:

Columbus day: Monday the 12th of October

Nov VB released: Friday the 9th of October

2008:

Columbus day: Monday the 13th of October

Nov VB released: Wednesday the 8th of October

Now the interesting one:

2007:

Columbus day: Monday the 8th of October

Nov VB released: Friday the 5th of October

2006:

Columbus day: Monday the 9th of October

Nov VB released: Friday the 6th of October



I randomly clicked on few VBs in past years, and definitely VB have been released before 8th, it's not a new precedent.

[nishant2200]

I would say it's a very strong possibility based on past empirical evidence. thanks to kd2008 for pointing out the columbus day occurence that led to this simple analysis.

Nothing can be said with certainty about these folks :)


I'm glad you took the time to check this out. So it is Friday then. All the very best to everybody who are anxiously waiting.

Meanwhile folks, we have discussed so much about being 'slaves' and 'hostages'. Let us say you get your GC soon and you go on to start a business, please see if you can take this pledge (http://site.business-ethics-pledge.org/take-the-pledge/). You don't have to sign this, but at least read the pledge and say to yourself that you will follow it.

There are people, instead of learning something positive from the treatment meted out to them, have turned out to be an exact or worse copy of their former 'employers'. Let us create a positive environment for all folks who are involved.

[nishant2200]

Another point thought when comparing with FB intake of 2010. FB is mostly CP, so DOS has a much more calculated angle to it when moving dates for intake. This is not so for EB which is mostly AOS.

This would also deem well for a larger intake.

[soggadu]

Soggadu bhai

I very rarely write in Tamil and that too whenever I feel really frustrated.

But Hindi translation request is genuine as we should not miss a single shade of humour from you and all others .

point well taken....hey on that note...i belong to gulti land in south too.... i will try to use universal language going forward when ever applicable...

[leo4ever]

Soggadu, can you translate "Uiiimaaaa". I love your languge man, keep it flowing. you can translate where possible.

[soggadu]

Soggadu, can you translate "Uiiimaaaa". I love your languge man, keep it flowing. you can translate where possible.

yes Uiiiiimaaaaa = You I and mama....altogether explaining the pain of waiting for GC to your mama = Uiiiiiiiiimaaaaa

[nishant2200]

This mama belongs to which langauge ?

mama meaning mother in american.

[srinivasj]

just checking to see if any PWMB who got there GC approval..?

[Monica12]

Guys, this was just now posted by CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/09/november-2011-visa-bulletin-predictions.html?showComment=1317678308549#comment-c6589654972175087536
Here is an update from our lawyer friend.
At this point his law firm does not have any specific update on the movement for the next visa bulletin movement and strategy of DOS. As per him from whatever he has gathered in past few weeks (nothing officially conveyed to them), he believes that “DOS strategically would like not to retrogress cut-off dates for EB2 India and China as long as possible, but rather move dates such that they can intake new demand without using excessive visa numbers than allowed. In retrospective, this means that next bulletin can bring none to one month movement at most, with bigger movement around December and January 2012 visa bulletin, where unused visas from current quarterly spillover and next quarterly spillover could be used rationally. Once that is done, cut-off dates may stall or retrogress based on total demand. Cut-off date for EB3- category will move as posted on the visa bulletin. EB3- ROW, Mexico and Philippines would move together for quite some time. Expected VB released date is Friday, October 7th”
CM – Information is posted as shared. Please take it at your own discretion. Good Luck.

[nishant2200]

Thank you for sharing. Of late, this guy's lawyer has been accurate. But this is the first time I am seeing he is saying it's just his belief and not semi-official. Otherwise his lawyer friend is more confident.

Only rationale behind not doing the logic the lawyer friend is saying, is that I-485 AOS takes time to process. If they do a huge move, build inventory, and then do quarterly SO, that's very safe.

Biggest good thing to know is that his lawyer friend also feels VB release date is October 7th friday, as we analysed here on this forum earlier today.

Also if indeed this is done, it would be a big disadvantage, as the moves will be very calibrated and smaller, people would lose out on EAD/AP benefits, and DOS would be a mercy of USCIS 485 processing times.

Looking at the current backlog of USCIS, I feel very surprised that DOS would trust USCIS to process 485s in 3 months.

So this VB is the litmus test for DOS strategy. If they don't move or do a month move, we know where their intentions lie. But their truest intentions even in this case can only be known in their next (or next to next) quarter move then, where in they really face situation of no inventory, just relying on small moves to make inventory quarter by quarter basis.

Also this would really turn out bad in the worst case SOFAD scenarios, as people who were expected to get EAD/AP, many of them would miss out.

Positive is that many people would get GC faster rather than wait for a year always.

I believe quarterly SO is good idea, but they should always build up inventories in advance. Now that would be smart and beneficial.


Guys, this was just now posted by CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/09/november-2011-visa-bulletin-predictions.html?showComment=1317678308549#comment-c6589654972175087536
Here is an update from our lawyer friend.
At this point his law firm does not have any specific update on the movement for the next visa bulletin movement and strategy of DOS. As per him from whatever he has gathered in past few weeks (nothing officially conveyed to them), he believes that “DOS strategically would like not to retrogress cut-off dates for EB2 India and China as long as possible, but rather move dates such that they can intake new demand without using excessive visa numbers than allowed. In retrospective, this means that next bulletin can bring none to one month movement at most, with bigger movement around December and January 2012 visa bulletin, where unused visas from current quarterly spillover and next quarterly spillover could be used rationally. Once that is done, cut-off dates may stall or retrogress based on total demand. Cut-off date for EB3- category will move as posted on the visa bulletin. EB3- ROW, Mexico and Philippines would move together for quite some time. Expected VB released date is Friday, October 7th”
CM – Information is posted as shared. Please take it at your own discretion. Good Luck.

[Monica12]

Yes, I agree Nishant...His lawyer has been quite accurate recently but he doesn't sound confident this time. 3-4 more days to go and we will know the answer.

[gcseeker]

Well summarized.I totally agree on all points.If the news is true DOS is trusting USCIS to work with 485 apps in a very short amount of time and this would be bad news for end of the year (2007 and early 2008) applicants.They would miss out on chance to file for EAD this FY.

Well here it begins again....Friday (7th) should be a nailbiter . I would pray the gates are opened for a lot more people to atleast file 485 .




Also this would really turn out bad in the worst case SOFAD scenarios, as people who were expected to get EAD/AP, many of them would miss out.

Positive is that many people would get GC faster rather than wait for a year always.

I believe quarterly SO is good idea, but they should always build up inventories in advance. Now that would be smart and beneficial.

[10102007]

....If the news is true DOS is trusting USCIS to work with 485 apps in a very short amount of time and this would be bad news for end of the year (2007 and early 2008) applicants.They would miss out on chance to file for EAD this FY.



Did you mean this CY (Calendar Year) instead?

[gcseeker]

10102007

Thanks for catching that.Yes meant CY .However if USCIS moves the dates very slowly without retogressing the dates ...the forward movement will be very unpredictable. CO would not have added the note about possible pipeline building and retrogression in the previous bulletin if he had no intention of doing the pipeline building.

Anywaz right now the ball is in their court.It will be tough to sleep properly for the next few days.


Did you mean this CY (Calendar Year) instead?

[nishant2200]

10102007

Thanks for catching that.Yes meant CY .However if USCIS moves the dates very slowly without retogressing the dates ...the forward movement will be very unpredictable. CO would not have added the note about possible pipeline building and retrogression in the previous bulletin if he had no intention of doing the pipeline building.

Anywaz right now the ball is in their court.It will be tough to sleep properly for the next few days.

Exactly. Already had a restless one last night.

[gc_usa]

Guys, this was just now posted by CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/09/november-2011-visa-bulletin-predictions.html?showComment=1317678308549#comment-c6589654972175087536
Here is an update from our lawyer friend.
At this point his law firm does not have any specific update on the movement for the next visa bulletin movement and strategy of DOS. As per him from whatever he has gathered in past few weeks (nothing officially conveyed to them), he believes that “DOS strategically would like not to retrogress cut-off dates for EB2 India and China as long as possible, but rather move dates such that they can intake new demand without using excessive visa numbers than allowed. In retrospective, this means that next bulletin can bring none to one month movement at most, with bigger movement around December and January 2012 visa bulletin, where unused visas from current quarterly spillover and next quarterly spillover could be used rationally. Once that is done, cut-off dates may stall or retrogress based on total demand. Cut-off date for EB3- category will move as posted on the visa bulletin. EB3- ROW, Mexico and Philippines would move together for quite some time. Expected VB released date is Friday, October 7th”
CM – Information is posted as shared. Please take it at your own discretion. Good Luck.

DOS moved date worth of 8k till July 2007. Regular quota is 5.6k for EB2 IC. DOS needs 1.4k more + CP demand from post August 2007.

They can't allocate that 1.4k right now in middle of first qtr. Next month which is end of first q , they will get 2-3k as spill over from Q1. That they will use to satisfy 1.4k demand from this month and then they will assign rest to CP cases which will allow them to advance dates. so date will not move in Nov but will do rapid movement in Dec bulletin. By then we are done with q1 so that movement will be 6-10 months.

[10102007]

DOS moved date worth of 8k till July 2007. Regular quota is 5.6k for EB2 IC. DOS needs 1.4k more + CP demand from post August 2007.

They can't allocate that 1.4k right now in middle of first qtr. Next month which is end of first q , they will get 2-3k as spill over from Q1. That they will use to satisfy 1.4k demand from this month and then they will assign rest to CP cases which will allow them to advance dates. so date will not move in Nov but will do rapid movement in Dec bulletin. By then we are done with q1 so that movement will be 6-10 months.

I too see it that way. But as the other folks have mentioned, it will be a challenge to relax and not think about Friday. I wish that at the end of current FY (ie. Sep 2012), the dates would at least be at June 2008.

[nishant2200]

DOS moved date worth of 8k till July 2007. Regular quota is 5.6k for EB2 IC. DOS needs 1.4k more + CP demand from post August 2007.

They can't allocate that 1.4k right now in middle of first qtr. Next month which is end of first q , they will get 2-3k as spill over from Q1. That they will use to satisfy 1.4k demand from this month and then they will assign rest to CP cases which will allow them to advance dates. so date will not move in Nov but will do rapid movement in Dec bulletin. By then we are done with q1 so that movement will be 6-10 months.

Yes, this can be a theory too.

My only solace is as gcseeker said, the wording by CO in the last VB did sound like he wants to build pipeline, and that movement was not the last, but will continue.

Now only thing we can do is propose theories, try to read their minds, and spend restless nights till friday. And god forbid, if bulletin dont come out on friday, then till tuesday, a weekend and a monday to pass in between.

[gcseeker]

Nishant

I guess am not alone in feeling this way :).Though would not wish these sleepless nights on anybody.


Exactly. Already had a restless one last night.


10102007

I hope it moves till June2008 and gives releif to many more.


I too see it that way. But as the other folks have mentioned, it will be a challenge to relax and not think about Friday. I wish that at the end of current FY (ie. Sep 2012), the dates would at least be at June 2008.

This forum is an godsend and I say this sincerely from the bottom of my heart.This is the picture I am always reminded of when I browse this forum.

It is just time to wait now...I guess.

http://www.movieposterdb.com/posters/06_01/2001/0185906/l_77206_0185906_e5953fcb.jpg

[Monica12]

10102007, love your new avatar... glad to see another animal lover on this forum :)
Gcseeker, btw I loved your old avatar... but love the Buddha too.
Geez...everyone is changing their avatars with the new thread... hmmm..maybe I should change mine too.
Guys, remember...Soggadu's golden words ... aya to aya..baki saab maya...let's hope for the best and leave the rest !!!

[10102007]

10102007, love your new avatar... glad to see another animal lover on this forum :)

Thanks Monica. After I came to the US, my parents brought a dog (yes...replaced me with one) and she is now a very integral part of the family. Last time when I went to India, I did not buy anything for my parents, but loaded my suitcases with food and goodies for her. She takes care of my parents and she keeps them happy and busy - which is something that I'm unable to do. I will forever be indebted to her.

Sorry...getting a bit emotional here...ok...back to the waiting game.

[Monica12]

Thanks Monica. After I came to the US, my parents brought a dog (yes...replaced me with one) and she is now a very integral part of the family. Last time when I went to India, I did not buy anything for my parents, but loaded my suitcases with food and goodies for her. She takes care of my parents and she keeps them happy and busy - which is something that I'm unable to do. I will forever be indebted to her.

Sorry...getting a bit emotional here...ok...back to the waiting game.
OMG ! Same story here..* tears *
I also buy tons of stuff for mine everytime, forever indebted to them..aren't we ?

[Monica12]

arreee.. guys , please chodo na ( please leave it ). Waise hi Nov VB ka itna tension hai( so much tension in anticipation of Nov Vb)..... Poor Nishant, Gc seeker, 10102007 and me are getting sleepless nights.... Soggadu's changed his avatar from dancing prince to traumatized James Bond :(
rahem karo USCIS ( mercy please USCIS, before we all go crazy )

[qblogfan]

Tears!!! My dear friend, I hope you can get your GC ASAP and visit your parents more often! I feel so sad to read your story! I haven't been back to China for four years and I am suffering everyday, but I have to wait for my GC before travelling back.


Thanks Monica. After I came to the US, my parents brought a dog (yes...replaced me with one) and she is now a very integral part of the family. Last time when I went to India, I did not buy anything for my parents, but loaded my suitcases with food and goodies for her. She takes care of my parents and she keeps them happy and busy - which is something that I'm unable to do. I will forever be indebted to her.

Sorry...getting a bit emotional here...ok...back to the waiting game.

[imdeng]

Folks - I have this thread in my Firefox Bookmarks - and as you would expect - the bookmark opens the first page (or a specific page if you bookmark that page) - does anyone know whether it is possible to open the last page every time?

Also - wouldn't it be better for the thread to be in reverse chrono order - like a blog - latest entry on top.

Lastly, Q - you have done an admirable job of keeping this place conducive to a free and frank discussion without much noise or hate. People are just angry and frustrated and sometimes it comes out as trolling/flaming/hate/etc. - don't let it get to you.

[Kanmani]

imdeng

I am not a tech person. But I use this shortcut to open the last page in IE . Right click the bookmark , goto properties, goto the line where it stores as link, change the page number to 100 or 200 save. Pls check with firefox , I checked it seem like working.

[Spectator]

Also - wouldn't it be better for the thread to be in reverse chrono order - like a blog - latest entry on top. imdeng,

That is something you can set for yourself.

When you are logged in, go to Settings (top right of the page).

Choose General Setting on the left hand side.

Set Thread Display Mode to Linear - Newest First.

Voila!

PS Even quicker is Forum Actions - General Settings

[nishant2200]

U are smart. Was just about to say that change the page number to a very high number that dont exist. However u might miss out on the good stuff in between. It's your preference.


imdeng

I am not a tech person. But I use this shortcut to open the last page in IE . Right click the bookmark , goto properties, goto the line where it stores as link, change the page number to 100 or 200 save. Pls check with firefox , I checked it seem like working.

[skpanda]

Should we be expecting USCIS I485 inventory around Oct 1st week?

We saw one on 1st Oct 2010.

[krishnav]

Sorry, just realized its a repost..plz ignore.


Hi indeng,

At the end of the url, where it says /page1 or /page2, etc, change your book mark to /page1000. That way it will always take you to the max page. It will take a while for us to hit 1000pages anyways.

Example,

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012/page1000

Hope this helps.


Folks - I have this thread in my Firefox Bookmarks - and as you would expect - the bookmark opens the first page (or a specific page if you bookmark that page) - does anyone know whether it is possible to open the last page every time?

Also - wouldn't it be better for the thread to be in reverse chrono order - like a blog - latest entry on top.

Lastly, Q - you have done an admirable job of keeping this place conducive to a free and frank discussion without much noise or hate. People are just angry and frustrated and sometimes it comes out as trolling/flaming/hate/etc. - don't let it get to you.

[tackle]

Folks - I have this thread in my Firefox Bookmarks - and as you would expect - the bookmark opens the first page (or a specific page if you bookmark that page) - does anyone know whether it is possible to open the last page every time?.

Bookmark this (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&goto=newpost) page.

[10102007]

Was checking out a few other forums and the general consensus is that the movement will be 0 or 1 month. I hope that it is atleast 1 month. It will bring relief to a few of us and give hope to the rest.

But trying hard not to expect anything.

[gcseeker]

10102007

Yup buddy have been following the chatter around the net as well and most of them are expecting something similar ( 0 to 1 month ) movement based on their lawyer perceptions about USCIS wanting to hold the line and not do any retrogression.It will be very painful if the above does happen but have seen this movie play out many times before.

:) I tend to imagine USCIS as an conservative football coach whose team has the ball in the 4th quarter at 3 mins and instead of trying to march down the field will try to punt the ball and will play prevent defense .Then in the postgame conference the coach says " Well you know our defense did not stop them(meaning no proper estimation of nubmers between DOS and USCIS) and they deserve credit for scoring under 3 mins ( sudden surge of hidden demand) ".

Teddy had an nice post in the 2011 thread about this approach .If USCIS does end up doing this they will have to hold the line longer for consecutive months since they will end up seeing demand from various sides which means chances diminish for end of 2007 and early 2008 and they would have to file later in 2012 for 485.

I am trying hard not to expect anything as well. ( takes a deep breath and repeats aaya to aaya ...baaki sab maaya )



Was checking out a few other forums and the general consensus is that the movement will be 0 or 1 month. I hope that it is atleast 1 month. It will bring relief to a few of us and give hope to the rest.

But trying hard not to expect anything.

[qesehmk]

Just trying to put things in perspective based on what we know so far.

As of end of last year there was enough current cases were left that USCIS didn't need to move dates if they were to not do qly spillover.
However they still moved dates in october significantly indicating a possible shift in their intake strategy in 2012.
one of the key reasons this happened is because they its almost certain that the SOFAD in 2012 will be much bigger than the existing backlog of EB2 cases. So if they do not move dates sufficiently forward with sufficient advance time, there is a risk that EB2 may not be current and yet EB3 may receive spillover. The chances of USCIS let that happen are next to zero.
As a result in 2012 we will see USCIS move dates quite early in the year to allow sufficient processing time so that in the spillover season (i.e May 2012 onwards) they can use SOFAD for these cases.
My own theory is that they MUST move dates at least upto Jan 2008 by Mar 2012 for EB2IC. We already saw some partial proof for this theory in terms of october movement. What will happen in November is anybody's guess.

October movement didn't create any new demand other than PWMBs. So the need for BTM still exists. A lot of people have hopes high. But what I would say with certainty is that the movement upto Jan 2008 will happen by end of Mar 2012. November movement could be as follows (just plain gut feel)
0 months - 33%
3 months or less - 90%
more than 3 months - 10%

[veni001]

10102007

Yup buddy have been following the chatter around the net as well and most of them are expecting something similar ( 0 to 1 month ) movement based on their lawyer perceptions about USCIS wanting to hold the line and not do any retrogression.It will be very painful if the above does happen but have seen this movie play out many times before.

:) I tend to imagine USCIS as an conservative football coach whose team has the ball in the 4th quarter at 3 mins and instead of trying to march down the field will try to punt the ball and will play prevent defense .Then in the postgame conference the coach says " Well you know our defense did not stop them(meaning no proper estimation of nubmers between DOS and USCIS) and they deserve credit for scoring under 3 mins ( sudden surge of hidden demand) ".

Teddy had an nice post in the 2011 thread about this approach .If USCIS does end up doing this they will have to hold the line longer for consecutive months since they will end up seeing demand from various sides which means chances diminish for end of 2007 and early 2008 and they would have to file later in 2012 for 485.

I am trying hard not to expect anything as well. (takes a deep breath and repeats aaya to aaya ...baaki sab maaya )

gcseeker,

DOS/USCIS may not be able to hold the current cut-off date for EB2-IC for long, unless they do quarterly spillover. Other wise they have to get ready for more calls/service requests/info-pass appointment... etc.

Since all new filings will not get into pipeline for at-least 3 months, it makes their life easy to extend EB2IC cutoff date in the next VB and retrogress in December VB.

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your insights! it's very good analysis.

I hope Mr.CO can be less conservative and move PD to Feb or March of 2008 by March 2012.


Just trying to put things in perspective based on what we know so far.

As of end of last year there was enough current cases were left that USCIS didn't need to move dates if they were to not do qly spillover.
However they still moved dates in october significantly indicating a possible shift in their intake strategy in 2012.
one of the key reasons this happened is because they its almost certain that the SOFAD in 2012 will be much bigger than the existing backlog of EB2 cases. So if they do not move dates sufficiently forward with sufficient advance time, there is a risk that EB2 may not be current and yet EB3 may receive spillover. The chances of USCIS let that happen are next to zero.
As a result in 2012 we will see USCIS move dates quite early in the year to allow sufficient processing time so that in the spillover season (i.e May 2012 onwards) they can use SOFAD for these cases.
My own theory is that they MUST move dates at least upto Jan 2008 by Mar 2012 for EB2IC. We already saw some partial proof for this theory in terms of october movement. What will happen in November is anybody's guess.

October movement didn't create any new demand other than PWMBs. So the need for BTM still exists. A lot of people have hopes high. But what I would say with certainty is that the movement upto Jan 2008 will happen by end of Mar 2008. November movement could be as follows (just plain gut feel)
0 months - 33%
3 months or less - 90%
more than 3 months - 10%

[veni001]

....... movement upto Jan 2008 will happen by end of Mar 2008. ......

Q,
I know you mean by March 2012.

[10102007]

10102007

( takes a deep breath and repeats aaya to aaya ...baaki sab maaya )

'thalaivar' (leader/ head/ chief) Rajni takes it one step further. He says everything is maaya and 'chaya' (shadow). Nothing is real. Geez..it's scary.

I think we should start telling people that only the flight ticket is in their control. Everything else - visa, H1 stability, GC etc. - is bonus or maaya.

[gcseeker]

Veni

Thanks for sharing those positive thoughts.I hope USCIS decides to do it that way. Do you think it would make sense for them to do a big move like 5-6 months in the next VB and grab additional demand for guardbanding since they are anyhow gonna possibly do the retrogression in Dec VB.


gcseeker,

DOS/USCIS may not be able to hold the current cut-off date for EB2-IC for long, unless they do quarterly spillover. Other wise they have to get ready for more calls/service requests/info-pass appointment... etc.

Since all new filings will not get into pipeline for at-least 3 months, it makes their life easy to extend EB2IC cutoff date in the next VB and retrogress in December VB.

[druvraj]

Just trying to put things in perspective based on what we know so far.

As of end of last year there was enough current cases were left that USCIS didn't need to move dates if they were to not do qly spillover.
However they still moved dates in october significantly indicating a possible shift in their intake strategy in 2012.
one of the key reasons this happened is because they its almost certain that the SOFAD in 2012 will be much bigger than the existing backlog of EB2 cases. So if they do not move dates sufficiently forward with sufficient advance time, there is a risk that EB2 may not be current and yet EB3 may receive spillover. The chances of USCIS let that happen are next to zero.
As a result in 2012 we will see USCIS move dates quite early in the year to allow sufficient processing time so that in the spillover season (i.e May 2012 onwards) they can use SOFAD for these cases.
My own theory is that they MUST move dates at least upto Jan 2008 by Mar 2012 for EB2IC. We already saw some partial proof for this theory in terms of october movement. What will happen in November is anybody's guess.

October movement didn't create any new demand other than PWMBs. So the need for BTM still exists. A lot of people have hopes high. But what I would say with certainty is that the movement upto Jan 2008 will happen by end of Mar 2008. November movement could be as follows (just plain gut feel)
0 months - 33%
3 months or less - 90%
more than 3 months - 10%


Q,

If USCIS and/or DOL are eager for BTM why not move the dates in one shot give people a 30 day window and then retrogress?

Benefits of moving dates in one shot

1. Get demand data at the start of year.
2. Less complaints/confusion and more clear way forward for visa year 2012.
3. USCIS used to this way.

Drawbacks
Cannot think of anything.

Your thoughts please.

[veni001]

Veni

Thanks for sharing those positive thoughts.I hope USCIS decides to do it that way. Do you think it would make sense for them to do a big move like 5-6 months in the next VB and grab additional demand for guardbanding since they are anyhow gonna possibly do the retrogression in Dec VB.

gcseeker,
IMHO, unless they have quarterly spillover planned already, what ever DOS/USCIS have in mind for EB2IC for FY2012, should happen in the next two VB. If not they can not hold on to 15JUL2007 for EB2IC for long.

[codesmith]

i see the expectations rising again like mercury during indian summer... chil out bro's and sister's of those bro's... every time expectations are high, the VB is going bad...

This reminds me of childhood memory.. we used to say while watching cricket "bol India harega" and then India would win :).!!

Just wondering... if USCIS can take a legal baits on PDs .. it would be fun to see who's winning and making money ...?

[veni001]

This reminds me of childhood memory.. we used to say while watching cricket "bol India harega" and then India would win :).!!

Just wondering... if USCIS can take a legal baits on PDs .. it would be fun to see who's winning and making money ...?

codesmith,
No doubt, DOS/USCIS all the time.:)

[cbpds1]

you seemed to cross the total of 100%


Just trying to put things in perspective based on what we know so far.
0 months - 33%
3 months or less - 90%
more than 3 months - 10%

[qesehmk]

veni thanks. Corrected.
Q,
I know you mean by March 2012.

[cbpds1]

[QUOTE=druvraj;9799]Q,

If USCIS and/or DOL are eager for BTM why not move the dates in one shot give people a 30 day window and then retrogress?

Benefits of moving dates in one shot

1. Get demand data at the start of year.
2. Less complaints/confusion and more clear way forward for visa year 2012.
3. USCIS used to this way.

Drawbacks
CO will not be able to screw your life :)

[pch053]

gcseeker,
IMHO, unless they have quarterly spillover planned already, what ever DOS/USCIS have in mind for EB2IC for FY2012, should happen in the next two VB. If not they can not hold on to 15JUL2007 for EB2IC for long.
Veni,
I totally agree with you. I think it's a bit to early to jump on any conclusion but based on the trackitt trends for the first couple of days, there seems to be no indication of any quarterly spillover. So far, there are only 1 - 2 approvals and both seems to be older PDs (EB3->EB2 porting cases) which probably weren't approved last year because all the visas were used up. So, we might be back to the FB visa date trend where forward movement happens until Dec followed by retrogression in Jan bulletin.

[qesehmk]

druvraj - i (and many others on this forum) would've done a BTM like you mention below :) But we are at somebody else's mercy unfortunately.
Q,

If USCIS and/or DOL are eager for BTM why not move the dates in one shot give people a 30 day window and then retrogress?

Benefits of moving dates in one shot

1. Get demand data at the start of year.
2. Less complaints/confusion and more clear way forward for visa year 2012.
3. USCIS used to this way.

Drawbacks
Cannot think of anything.

Your thoughts please.


you seemed to cross the total of 100%

If you read carefully, the total is 100%. But as you can see the way I phrased it puts the probability of exactly 3 months movement at ZERO!

[cbpds1]

Sorry was multitasking !!


If you read carefully, the total is 100%. But as you can see the way I phrased it puts the probability of exactly 3 months movement at ZERO!

[nishant2200]

Q,

If USCIS and/or DOL are eager for BTM why not move the dates in one shot give people a 30 day window and then retrogress?

Benefits of moving dates in one shot

1. Get demand data at the start of year.
2. Less complaints/confusion and more clear way forward for visa year 2012.
3. USCIS used to this way.

Drawbacks
Cannot think of anything.

Your thoughts please.

The biggest drawback is the USCIS indicating problems with having huge inflows of applications and having to receipt them, start processing of EAD/AP to adhere to their SLAs. I think only reason DOS would stagger the movement is for USCIS convenience.

[veni001]

The biggest drawback is the USCIS indicating problems with having huge inflows of applications and having to receipt them, start processing of EAD/AP to adhere to their SLAs. I think only reason DOS would stagger the movement is for USCIS convenience.

Nishant,

I don't think 10k-15k additional is huge for USCIS compared to 300k received in July 2007.

Considering the fact that EB1 demand is down (about the same number above) USCIS should not see any big change in workload.

[nishant2200]

Thanks Veni. This augurs well for big movement then.

There is no reason then why we should limit ourselves to 3 months, just because the first intake was 3 months, or the FB intake comparably done was 3 months. FB is mostly CP, and DOS has more handle on its demand.

If its quarterly SO on their mind, then it would be 0 or minimal. I am not giving good chance to quarterly SO.

If its not quarterly SO on their mind, then the movement should be reaching end of 2007 at least either in one VB or two VB.


Nishant,

I don't think 10k-15k additional is huge for USCIS compared to 300k received in July 2007.

Considering the fact that EB1 demand is down (about the same number above) USCIS should not see any big change in workload.

[qblogfan]

I seriously doubt they intend to approve the cases that become current in this month. I only saw 2 approvals on EB2-C. I suspect they will not approve more than several hundreds cases in this month. Quarterly spillover has very small possibility.



Thanks Veni. This augurs well for big movement then.

There is no reason then why we should limit ourselves to 3 months, just because the first intake was 3 months, or the FB intake comparably done was 3 months. FB is mostly CP, and DOS has more handle on its demand.

If its quarterly SO on their mind, then it would be 0 or minimal. I am not giving good chance to quarterly SO.

If its not quarterly SO on their mind, then the movement should be reaching end of 2007 at least either in one VB or two VB.

[qblogfan]

Agree. I think it's possible DOS wants to move PD slowly to make it convenient for USCIS. It's kind of difficult to send receipts/EAD/AP if 20k people rush into their system. I think 5k-10k per month is reasonable.


The biggest drawback is the USCIS indicating problems with having huge inflows of applications and having to receipt them, start processing of EAD/AP to adhere to their SLAs. I think only reason DOS would stagger the movement is for USCIS convenience.

[nishant2200]

Agree. I think it's possible DOS wants to move PD slowly to make it convenient for USCIS. It's kind of difficult to send receipts/EAD/AP if 20k people rush into their system. I think 5k-10k per month is reasonable.

Yes, although Veni pointed out its not that bad, it's still my gut feeling that USCIS is throttling the intake and stopping CO from going gung-ho.

[TeddyKoochu]

I seriously doubt they intend to approve the cases that become current in this month. I only saw 2 approvals on EB2-C. I suspect they will not approve more than several hundreds cases in this month.

The early approval trend does not seem to be great on Trackitt either, there are EB2 ROW, EB1 and EB3 approvals, the EB2-I approvals are for PWMB's who filed in the previous months or older cases. No one in the range from Apr 15 to Jul 15th has been approved yet for EB2 I/C let’s wait and watch. Also it will be interesting to see the approval rates of EB2 ROW and EB1 this month.

[qblogfan]

Last time 300k took them almost 1-2 years to process. I think maybe 10k per month is a comfortable number for USCIS.


Nishant,

I don't think 10k-15k additional is huge for USCIS compared to 300k received in July 2007.

Considering the fact that EB1 demand is down (about the same number above) USCIS should not see any big change in workload.

[qblogfan]

yes, one EB2-C case with PD March 15 2007 and the other one is PD April 17 2007. I don't see huge approvals on mitbbs. We have to see what will happen later this week.


The early approval trend does not seem to be great on Trackitt either, there are EB2 ROW, EB1 and EB3 approvals, the EB2-I approvals are for PWMB's who filed in the previous months or older cases. No one in the range from Apr 15 to Jul 15th has been approved yet for EB2 I/C let’s wait and watch. Also it will be interesting to see the approval rates of EB2 ROW and EB1 this month.

[qblogfan]

yes, I agree. Last time CO said that he was planning to move PD to July in the last bulliten of FY 2011, but USCIS stopped him and claimed they found large number of old cases. I think maybe CO intends to move PD faster, but USCIS does not want him to do that. It's a battle.


Yes, although Veni pointed out its not that bad, it's still my gut feeling that USCIS is throttling the intake and stopping CO from going gung-ho.

[soggadu]

Thanks Veni. This augurs well for big movement then.

There is no reason then why we should limit ourselves to 3 months, just because the first intake was 3 months, or the FB intake comparably done was 3 months. FB is mostly CP, and DOS has more handle on its demand.

If its quarterly SO on their mind, then it would be 0 or minimal. I am not giving good chance to quarterly SO.

If its not quarterly SO on their mind, then the movement should be reaching end of 2007 at least either in one VB or two VB.

N.... I am seeing inflation of hopes again....

[veni001]

Yes, although Veni pointed out its not that bad, it's still my gut feeling that USCIS is throttling the intake and stopping CO from going gung-ho.


yes, I agree. Last time CO said that he was planning to move PD to July in the last bulliten of FY 2011, but USCIS stopped him and claimed they found large number of old cases. I think maybe CO intends to move PD faster, but USCIS does not want him to do that. It's a battle.

"July 2007" is the "best" date ever previously reached for EB2IC to-date. So let's see what DOS/USCIS going to do when they pass that best ever date, one long jump ("BTM") or multiple shot jumps followed by "TBM".

[evoori]

Isn't 140/12 ~ 12K should be normal monthly workload for USCIS.. They are used to getting 100k applications on first day/week for H1Bs and issuing receipt notices to them.. I know it is little different but I think workload should not be much of concern.. (truly speaking I want them to do BTM for my own sake)..


Last time 300k took them almost 1-2 years to process. I think maybe 10k per month is a comfortable number for USCIS.

[soggadu]

"July 2007" is the "best" date ever previously reached for EB2IC to-date. So let's see what DOS/USCIS going to do when they pass that best ever date, one long jump ("BTM") or multiple shot jumps followed by "TBM".

veni...the usual practice once you have your best date ever... is to propose for long term relation ;-) = take in lot of apps(responsibilities) and process one by one ...

[veni001]

Isn't 140/12 ~ 12K should be normal monthly workload for USCIS.. They are used to getting 100k applications on first day/week for H1Bs and issuing receipt notices to them.. I know it is little different but I think workload should not be much of concern.. (truly speaking I want them to do BTM for my own sake)..


veni...the usual practice once you have your best date ever... is to propose for long term relation ;-) = take in lot of apps(responsibilities) and process one by one ...

Agree, sooner or later they have to do BTM for EB2IC, assuming similar to past couple of years SOFAD trend for this FY.

It would be better for agencies as well as for the applicants if they do it beginning of the FY as opposed to beginning of spillover season.

[shaumack]

Yes, although Veni pointed out its not that bad, it's still my gut feeling that USCIS is throttling the intake and stopping CO from going gung-ho.
Yes agree, and I think we should be blamed for it. We should let USCIS alone and stop creating pressure throuh SRs and Senators, but then wait is so long for us that as soon as we see 'C' against our PD, we go crazy and goo-goo-gaga and just want to get GC asap.

[nishant2200]

Yes agree, and I think we should be blamed for it. We should let USCIS alone and stop creating pressure throuh SRs and Senators, but then wait is so long for us that as soon as we see 'C' against our PD, we go crazy and goo-goo-gaga and just want to get GC asap.

This is a very practical reason pointed out by you, and as you said, can't blame the applicant from doing that also.

[GhostWriter]

Can someone provide some insights. Posted it in the old thread few days back. Thanks for the idea SmileBaba :) Saw you re-posting your post and then i thought, i can do that too.

-----------------------------------------------
09-22-2011 09:55 PM #7889 GhostWriter

First post here. I have been following this great forum for a few months now, my PD is far away (EB2-I, end of 2009) so was watching from the pavilion. Thanks to Q and all other gurus here for the great analysis. I signed up today to view Spec's latest miracle. Also have a few questions
- I was going through the data section and noticed the very small number of Perms for China vs India after 2008. So is there a chance that EB2-C will get current sooner and then only EB2-I will be the only category to use spillover.
- Are SOFAD numbers for last 3-4 years listed somewhere (couldn't find in the data section, please point me to the link, i might have overlooked it).

[Spectator]

Can someone provide some insights. Posted it in the old thread few days back. Thanks for the idea SmileBaba :) Saw you re-posting your post and then i thought, i can do that too.

-----------------------------------------------
09-22-2011 09:55 PM #7889 GhostWriter

First post here. I have been following this great forum for a few months now, my PD is far away (EB2-I, end of 2009) so was watching from the pavilion. Thanks to Q and all other gurus here for the great analysis. I signed up today to view Spec's latest miracle. Also have a few questions


- I was going through the data section and noticed the very small number of Perms for China vs India after 2008. So is there a chance that EB2-C will get current sooner and then only EB2-I will be the only category to use spillover.Although EB2-C have a much smaller number of applications in the backlog, it is too many for them to become Current ahead of EB2-I, as the current system works.

Although the normal allocation will will take them to a later Cut Off Date than EB2-I, it isn't enough to make them Current. When Spillover starts, it goes to the earliest PD, so EB2-I catches up.

As EB2-C normal allocation takes their COD further ahead, they receive less spillover.


- Are SOFAD numbers for last 3-4 years listed somewhere (couldn't find in the data section, please point me to the link, i might have overlooked it).The spillover interpretation changed with effect for FY2008. Here are the figures for FY2008 to FY2010:

------------------ CHINA -------------------------- INDIA -------------------------- CHINA & INDIA
-------------------FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010
Normal Allocation - 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 ------ 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 ------ 6,514 --- 5,606 --- 6,032
Spillover --------- 3,698 ----- 242 --- 3,489 ----- 11,549 --- 7,303 -- 16,945 ----- 15,247 --- 7,545 -- 20,434

SOFAD ------------- 6,955 --- 3,045 --- 6,505 ----- 14,806 -- 10,106 -- 19,961 ----- 21,761 -- 13,151 -- 26,466

[GhostWriter]

Thanks for both the answers Spec, very helpful for my beginner level understanding.
Didn't know that SOFAD for 2009 was so much less that 2008 and 2010, hope we don't see that again. Was SOFAD in similar range of 25K for recently ended 2011 as well.
Once again your chart from last month is simply amazing.



The spillover interpretation changed with effect for FY2008. Here are the figures for FY2008 to FY2010:

------------------ CHINA -------------------------- INDIA -------------------------- CHINA & INDIA
-------------------FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010
Normal Allocation - 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 ------ 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 ------ 6,514 --- 5,606 --- 6,032
Spillover --------- 3,698 ----- 242 --- 3,489 ----- 11,549 --- 7,303 -- 16,945 ----- 15,247 --- 7,545 -- 20,434

SOFAD ------------- 6,955 --- 3,045 --- 6,505 ----- 14,806 -- 10,106 -- 19,961 ----- 21,761 -- 13,151 -- 26,466

[Spectator]

Thanks for both the answers Spec, very helpful for my beginner level understanding.
Didn't know that SOFAD for 2009 was so much less that 2008 and 2010, hope we don't see that again. Was SOFAD in similar range of 25K for recently ended 2011 as well.
Once again your chart from last month is simply amazing.GhostWriter,

Glad you found it useful.

I think the general consensus is that SOFAD for EB2-IC for FY2011 was about 30k (give or take).

We won't know the true figure until January, when the DOS Visa Statistics are usually published.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Spec.


GhostWriter,

Glad you found it useful.

I think the general consensus is that SOFAD for EB2-IC for FY2011 was about 30k (give or take).

We won't know the true figure until January, when the DOS Visa Statistics are usually published.

[leo07]

Veni001, I agree with this statement for PWMBs: "Since all new filings will not get into pipeline for at-least 3 months"
But, I think there are not many of us in the current VB.

gcseeker,

DOS/USCIS may not be able to hold the current cut-off date for EB2-IC for long, unless they do quarterly spillover. Other wise they have to get ready for more calls/service requests/info-pass appointment... etc.

Since all new filings will not get into pipeline for at-least 3 months, it makes their life easy to extend EB2IC cutoff date in the next VB and retrogress in December VB.

[Spectator]

Veni001, I agree with this statement for PWMBs: "Since all new filings will not get into pipeline for at-least 3 months"
But, I think there are not many of us in the current VB.Leo,

The movement from 15APR07 to 15JUL07 may have introduced about 2.1k PWMB for EB2-IC. That's about 26% of the total numbers for that movement.

[veni001]

Veni001, I agree with this statement for PWMBs: "Since all new filings will not get into pipeline for at-least 3 months"
But, I think there are not many of us in the current VB.

Leo,
Considering PERM approvals after July 2007 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)) and other's who missed July 2007 filing deadline, EB2IC-PWMB filings for October 2011 should be around 3K.

[imdeng]

Spec has already replied about the improbability of EB2C becoming current since their demand is still more than the annual quota and spillover rules will make EB2I catch up with EB2C. However, it would effectively mean that EB2I will receive ALMOST ALL of the spillover. EB2C will move enough with normal quota and most of the spillover will be consumed just to make EB2I catch up with EB2C. It is possible that in a year or so, all the spillover is not enough to catch up with EB2C and then EB2I will get ALL the spillover. EB2C does not need to e current for EB2I to get all the spillover.


I was going through the data section and noticed the very small number of Perms for China vs India after 2008. So is there a chance that EB2-C will get current sooner and then only EB2-I will be the only category to use spillover.

[qesehmk]

That's very true. Very good summary.

Lets paint the flip side of it. If EB2C demand falls below annual quota, they will become current but then EB2C will no longer stand out a separate category. Rather they will become part of EB2ROW and EB2ROW's quota will increase by 2.8K. That will actually bode well for EB2C since then there won't be any quarterly limit they will be subjected to. It will dramatically improve their cycle time. Its quite tragic how a demand difference of couple of thousand could possibly improve EB2C's plight today.


Spec has already replied about the improbability of EB2C becoming current since their demand is still more than the annual quota and spillover rules will make EB2I catch up with EB2C. However, it would effectively mean that EB2I will receive ALMOST ALL of the spillover. EB2C will move enough with normal quota and most of the spillover will be consumed just to make EB2I catch up with EB2C. It is possible that in a year or so, all the spillover is not enough to catch up with EB2C and then EB2I will get ALL the spillover. EB2C does not need to e current for EB2I to get all the spillover.

[GhostWriter]

Good point imdeng, thanks. Noticed that in the different spillovers consumed by EB2-I and Eb2-C provided by spec. So basically if any other country besides India or China were to lose the "current" status, it would be almost impossible for them to get it back since the spillover will go in the order of PDs.


Spec has already replied about the improbability of EB2C becoming current since their demand is still more than the annual quota and spillover rules will make EB2I catch up with EB2C. However, it would effectively mean that EB2I will receive ALMOST ALL of the spillover. EB2C will move enough with normal quota and most of the spillover will be consumed just to make EB2I catch up with EB2C. It is possible that in a year or so, all the spillover is not enough to catch up with EB2C and then EB2I will get ALL the spillover. EB2C does not need to e current for EB2I to get all the spillover.

[qblogfan]

I think EB2-C demand will be a little more than 2800, so it's difficult to become current. I think maybe the annual demand will equal annual supply. Basically PD for EB2C will move forward one year in one year.


That's very true. Very good summary.

Lets paint the flip side of it. If EB2C demand falls below annual quota, they will become current but then EB2C will no longer stand out a separate category. Rather they will become part of EB2ROW and EB2ROW's quota will increase by 2.8K. That will actually bode well for EB2C since then there won't be any quarterly limit they will be subjected to. It will dramatically improve their cycle time. Its quite tragic how a demand difference of couple of thousand could possibly improve EB2C's plight today.

[qblogfan]

Tonight I saw 5 extra EB-2C approvals and they have PD ranging from April to July. It looks like they are not approving based PD and it's like random.


Good point imdeng, thanks. Noticed that in the different spillovers consumed by EB2-I and Eb2-C provided by spec. So basically if any other country besides India or China were to lose the "current" status, it would be almost impossible for them to get it back since the spillover will go in the order of PDs.

[imdeng]

This scenario is quite improbable though since there is enough accumulated demand in EB2C. Even if regualar yearly demand becomes less than 2800, only the difference will go towards backlog reduction and without any significant spillover (since EB2I will get most of that in this scenario) - it will be decade or more before EB2C becomes part of EB2ROW. Still - we do seem to me moving in that direction.


That's very true. Very good summary.

Lets paint the flip side of it. If EB2C demand falls below annual quota, they will become current but then EB2C will no longer stand out a separate category. Rather they will become part of EB2ROW and EB2ROW's quota will increase by 2.8K. That will actually bode well for EB2C since then there won't be any quarterly limit they will be subjected to. It will dramatically improve their cycle time. Its quite tragic how a demand difference of couple of thousand could possibly improve EB2C's plight today.

[imdeng]

Yup - once a country becomes backlogged, it will likely remain backlogged unless their regular demand drops significantly before accumulated backlog becomes too large. South Korea is probably a candidate to join India and China soon.


Good point imdeng, thanks. Noticed that in the different spillovers consumed by EB2-I and Eb2-C provided by spec. So basically if any other country besides India or China were to lose the "current" status, it would be almost impossible for them to get it back since the spillover will go in the order of PDs.

[imdeng]

It will be interesting to see how much lead EB2C PD will take over EB2I PD before spillover season makes then catch up.


I think EB2-C demand will be a little more than 2800, so it's difficult to become current. I think maybe the annual demand will equal annual supply. Basically PD for EB2C will move forward one year in one year.

[imdeng]

Wow - 2009 was a horrible year. 2010 was decent only because of 10K FB bounty. Both years we received no spillover from EB1. BTW, in 2009 South Korea got more EB2s (4991) than China (3045). In fact, South Korea got more EB3s that India and China combined! Wow - that is messed up!!

By all accounts, we have had the best SOFAD in history. EB1 is key to the trend continuing - I hope it does.



------------------ CHINA -------------------------- INDIA -------------------------- CHINA & INDIA
-------------------FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010
Normal Allocation - 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 ------ 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 ------ 6,514 --- 5,606 --- 6,032
Spillover --------- 3,698 ----- 242 --- 3,489 ----- 11,549 --- 7,303 -- 16,945 ----- 15,247 --- 7,545 -- 20,434

SOFAD ------------- 6,955 --- 3,045 --- 6,505 ----- 14,806 -- 10,106 -- 19,961 ----- 21,761 -- 13,151 -- 26,466

[Spectator]

It will be interesting to see how much lead EB2C PD will take over EB2I PD before spillover season makes then catch up.imdeng,

I don't think it will be a factor this year.

DOS demand for the movement to date uses most of it up even without PWMB and once we reach 01AUG07, it will have been exceeded.

[Monica12]

Tonight I saw 5 extra EB-2C approvals and they have PD ranging from April to July. It looks like they are not approving based PD and it's like random.
Trackitt is also showing a couple of EB2 I approvals with PD May and June. It's definitely random.

[nishant2200]

Trackitt is also showing a couple of EB2 I approvals with PD May and June. It's definitely random.

I think it will be what Teddy said, odds of winning lottery is 1/24 each month for Q1 approx. i.e. 250/6000.

[pch053]

Tonight I saw 5 extra EB-2C approvals and they have PD ranging from April to July. It looks like they are not approving based PD and it's like random.
That's good to know; so far I see 4 EB2-I approvals in trackitt in the 1st 2 working days of the month. 3 of them seem to be porting cases and for one person, the PD is June'07.

[pch053]

I think it will be what Teddy said, odds of winning lottery is 1/24 each month for Q1 approx. i.e. 250/6000.
I think we also need to consider 1K - 2K cases with PD up to April'07 that were not approved last year; so there might be anywhere between 7K - 8K pending cases that are approvable this month. I guess it is fair for people with earlier PDs to get approval first but there seems to be some randomness in this procedure that one has to live with.

[rdsingh79]

Guys, Demand data for Nov is out. Only 2675 demand before Jan 1, 2008. This means DOS have released 5600 EB2IC quota in october itself.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[Monica12]

Guys, Demand data for Nov is out. Only 3000 EB2IC demand for Nov!!!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
Nishant, Bingo ! you were right...looks like the Nov Vb will be out on Friday or even before.

[needid]

Since there was no fresh intake for past 3 months, 8K is ready for approval. 5000 is all they approved in Aug and Sep.

Guys, Demand data for Nov is out. Only 3000 EB2IC demand for Nov!!!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[natvyas]

This could just be my paranoia but my gut feeling says this is not good news that they have released the demand data so early. This implies that they have made up their mind on the movement (or lack of it).

Regards
Nat

[10102007]

Guys, Demand data for Nov is out. Only 2675 demand before Jan 1, 2008. This means DOS have released 5600 EB2IC quota in october itself.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

So does this bode well for the upcoming bulletin?

[needid]

Demand data for Nov month does not influence Nov VB, you need to add I-485 processing time delta.

This could just be my paranoia but my gut feeling says this is not good news that they have released the demand data so early. This implies that they have made up their mind on the movement (or lack of it).

Regards
Nat

[nishant2200]

Nishant, Bingo ! you were right...looks like the Nov Vb will be out on Friday or even before.

To be fair its rdsingh79.

Wov guys! I have no words. Good work rd wov.

Now this is really setting stage for BTM, what else can it be.

[nishant2200]

Demand data for Nov month does not influence Nov VB, you need to add I-485 processing time delta.

This demand data is for Nov VB.

[natvyas]

To be fair its rdsingh79.

Wov guys! I have no words. Good work rd wov.

Now this is really setting stage for BTM, what else can it be.

Could you please advise the basis of your inference?

Regards
Nat

[skpanda]

My gut feeling is that there will be a very good movement (BTM) in Nov bulletin. I think there will be atleast 6 months movement (I wish they make it current!!)

However regarding the Demand data reduction this could be as a result of

a. DOS/USCIS decided to release the entire 5600 visa to EB2IC - Only drawback to this theory is, EB2C demand should have been 200 or 300 (since the demand was around 3K for Oct bulletin).

OR

b. These came out of FY 2011 quota

[Kanmani]

My Gut feeling is Dos will move the PD a year ahead in this point .

If i expect something and waiting nothing happens , but whenever I am away from the computer , something is happening like today's Demand data .

[nishant2200]

Could you please advise the basis of your inference?

Regards
Nat

See skpanda's theories. In either case these are quite unprecedented steps taken, and looks like delibrate attempt to do out of ordinary tweaking.



My gut feeling is that there will be a very good movement (BTM) in Nov bulletin.

However regarding the Demand data reduction this could be as a result of

a. DOS/USCIS decided to release the entire 5600 visa to EB2IC - Only drawback to this theory is, EB2C demand should have been 200 or 300 (since the demand was around 3K for Oct bulletin).

OR

b. These came out of FY 2011 quota

[Kanmani]

Nope, I dont think this is from 2011 quota, because ,the exact figure of annual allowance 5600 IC has been reduced from the demand .

[needid]

Yes. my comment was in the context of OP. IMHO releasing demand data early or late does not have any influence on VB to be +ve or -ve. As they were not waiting for current(Oct) intake to determine Nov demand data, As any fresh intake does not transform into demand data as there it needs to go through 2 to 6 months pre-adj process. Intake in independent of demand at least in the beginning of FY.

This demand data is for Nov VB.

[la_2002_ch]

Not sure, But I think this is the first time that the pending demand for India is less than China. Does this mean anything? China seems to have reduced by around only 1,700. So if it was the yearly quota of 5.6K, shouldn't both India and China been reduced by 2.8K each?

[skpanda]

Possible but i can't explain why would India get 4K+ and China get 1.5K+?

This is not spillover that they would go by PD unless ofcourse this came out of FY 2011.



Nope, I dont think this is from 2011 quota, because ,the exact figure of annual allowance 5600 IC has been reduced from the demand .

[sandeep11]

Well, its surprising that it came down to 2675 from 8000 for EB2 IC. IMHO it is good news. Even if we expect 3K applications for the 3 month movement from last VB, DOS has to take in a lot more applications if they stand true to their word of pipeline building. I am hoping the next VB would be the actual BTM i.e end of Dec 2007.



This demand data is for Nov VB.

[bleakHope]

I also hope and wish they do the BTM atleast until the end of 2007. The big question remains: Will they continue to build the pipeline or do they have any other random plans.

It is better to be cautiously optimistic to avoid disappointment later.

We have two more days to pass (assuming they release it on Fri). Let us hope and pray for the best.

[Kanmani]

Agree with you. It looks like the demand deduction is according to PD wise. Good point


Possible but i can't explain why would India get 4K+ and China get 1.5K+?

This is not spillover that they would go by PD unless ofcourse this came out of FY 2011.

[mysati]

Guys, Demand data for Nov is out. Only 2675 demand before Jan 1, 2008. This means DOS have released 5600 EB2IC quota in october itself.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

I have one basic question.

I am looking at the table for EB2. If the latest AOS filing date for EB2-I&C was August 07, how come there are 75 extra apps for C between 08 and 11 and 125 for I for the same period. Am I missing something here?

If it has been already answered in last year's post, please pardon me for my ignorance and point me to the post, if possible.

[tackle]

My Gut feeling is Dos will move the PD a year ahead in this point .

If i expect something and waiting nothing happens , but whenever I am away from the computer , something is happening like today's Demand data .

Maybe you should take a couple of days off, then :).

[leo07]

ah.. I didn't expect 3k. But Thanks to both of you for eye opener.

Leo,

The movement from 15APR07 to 15JUL07 may have introduced about 2.1k PWMB for EB2-IC. That's about 26% of the total numbers for that movement.

Leo,
Considering PERM approvals after July 2007 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)) and other's who missed July 2007 filing deadline, EB2IC-PWMB filings for October 2011 should be around 3K.

[soggadu]

okay...Fab 5... gimme/us some analysis and what to expect and what not to from this demand data and also the date projection now.... until then i cant think of anything else...

[gc_usa]

I was right about my theory how they were able to shift date in OCT after allocating all 5.6k visas to EB2 IC. DOS will have hard time to allocate spill over visas in Nov so date will remain same for Nov or can move little. In Dec they will use first Q1 spill over and able to move date till March 2008.

If date will not move in nov more than 1 months all people with PD < March 2008 should be ready for DEC. Chances are 95 % that happening in DEC.

[Spectator]

The difference between the November DD and October DD shows the movement expected to happen in October.

The differential in numbers between China and India is roughly what would be expected if the COD moved equally in the October VB (which it did) and DOS are allocating the combined initial allocation of 5.6k in a single month.

In fact, the numbers EB2-I will actually receive is probably somewhat higher, since EB2-I has some Porting (which won't be reflected in the DD numbers).

[qesehmk]

I don't know what magic DOS pulled out of its hat to reduce EB2IC numbers compared to prior demand data.

But based on what's published, it begs the question - why shouldn't USCIS make the dates current for EB2IC. And I mean current as in TODAY. At teh least there is nothing in demand data that prevents them from making it current.

p.s. - If the numbers are true, it dramatically improves 2011 SOFAD by 6-7K to a total of 37K.

[soggadu]

I don't know what magic DOS pulled out of its hat to reduce EB2IC numbers compared to prior demand data.

But based on what's published, it begs the question - why shouldn't USCIS make the dates current for EB2IC. And I mean current as in TODAY. At teh least there is nothing in demand data that prevents them from making it current.

wow wow wow...Q... r u serious? BTM or MKCK ( maa ki!!!!...current kardo)?????

[bleakHope]

Q, any info from your src? Just wondering.

[TeddyKoochu]

My gut feeling is that there will be a very good movement (BTM) in Nov bulletin. I think there will be atleast 6 months movement (I wish they make it current!!)

However regarding the Demand data reduction this could be as a result of

a. DOS/USCIS decided to release the entire 5600 visa to EB2IC - Only drawback to this theory is, EB2C demand should have been 200 or 300 (since the demand was around 3K for Oct bulletin).

OR

b. These came out of FY 2011 quota

You are correct the demand data is indeed very interesting. Any how they are committing large numbers to October approvals. I agree with you that the demand data math does not work out perfectly for India and China in terms of reductions, it maybe a case of applications being denied or abandoned, just that the demand data has been cleaned up now. Chances of these being last year’s numbers is less because they announced that they are over.

[skpanda]

I wish they make it current...

i am increasingly getting convinced that the Demand data reduction is from FY 2011 quota. In this case, there is nothing stopping to make EB2IC current and have peace of mind for next 4 years (No guessing/retrogession).

Good Luck to All!


I don't know what magic DOS pulled out of its hat to reduce EB2IC numbers compared to prior demand data.

But based on what's published, it begs the question - why shouldn't USCIS make the dates current for EB2IC. And I mean current as in TODAY. At teh least there is nothing in demand data that prevents them from making it current.

p.s. - If the numbers are true, it dramatically improves 2011 SOFAD by 6-7K to a total of 37K.

[gc_usa]

I don't know what magic DOS pulled out of its hat to reduce EB2IC numbers compared to prior demand data.

But based on what's published, it begs the question - why shouldn't USCIS make the dates current for EB2IC. And I mean current as in TODAY. At teh least there is nothing in demand data that prevents them from making it current.

p.s. - If the numbers are true, it dramatically improves 2011 SOFAD by 6-7K to a total of 37K.

DOS allocated all 5.6k visas on OCT , legally they can do it but they cannot assign more than 28.6 % for EB2 total in Q1, so DOS now has some 4-5k left visas and they cannot assign any or all of those to EB2 IC otherwise EB2 will get cutoff date for Dec month.

So DOS will wait for DEC month or Jan ( I don't know if they can assign in last month of qtr or first month of next qtr ) to get some spill over from EB5 and EB1 to satisfy remaining 3k demand. It will be up to DOS to go where ever they want to go. They might have got I 140 data from USCIS or they can go based on past demand data they have and move forward.

Since we know that each month have average 1.5-2.5 k demand for EB2 I/C for 2006,2007 they will go with 2k per month and move at least 10-12 month from July 2007. Even I think if single instance of NVC receipt for Sep 2008 case was right then date will go up to Sep 2008.

[qblogfan]

I don't understand what is going on.

What Mr.CO is doing is totally unpredictable!

Sometimes he says we should get 200 per month, sometimes he says we can get 5600 per month. What is his logic behind all these?

He is a crazy man indeed!


I wish they make it current...

i am increasingly getting convinced that the Demand data reduction is from FY 2011 quota. In this case, there is nothing stopping to make EB2IC current and have peace of mind for next 4 years (No guessing/retrogession).

Good Luck to All!

[skpanda]

You are correct the demand data is indeed very interesting. Any how they are committing large numbers to October approvals. I agree with you that the demand data math does not work out perfectly for India and China in terms of reductions, it maybe a case of applications being denied or abandoned, just that the demand data has been cleaned up now. Chances of these being last year’s numbers is less because they announced that they are over.

Hmm.. valid point on the announcement of Visas were over mid Sept. I forgot that!

[gc_usa]

You are correct the demand data is indeed very interesting. Any how they are committing large numbers to October approvals. I agree with you that the demand data math does not work out perfectly for India and China in terms of reductions, it maybe a case of applications being denied or abandoned, just that the demand data has been cleaned up now. Chances of these being last year’s numbers is less because they announced that they are over.

They have assigned 5.6k quota to EB2 IC. they can do legally but can't go more than 28.6 % of total EB2 in Q1. so Nov will hold them back marching forward. Either DEC or JAN (depend where they can allocate Qtr spillover visas , either in last month or first month of next qtr ) they will make a one shot final big move. I predict it will go all the way up to June - Sep 2008 then.

[RRRRRR]

wow wow wow...Q... r u serious? BTM or MKCK ( maa ki!!!!...current kardo)?????

I might be wrong but my understanding from the visa bulletin is that it cannot be current and the reason is based on the following extract from the demand data
"If the monthly allocation target is 3,000 and there is only demand for 1,000 applicants, the category will be "Current”. Whenever the total of documentarily qualified applicants in a category exceeds the supply of numbers available for allotment for the particular month, the category is considered to be "oversubscribed" and a visa availability cut-off date is established."

Apart from this what is throwing me off is this statement.
""The chart below shows the estimated total number of visas available for each employment preference category and country for fiscal year 2012."

To me it seems the demand for 2012 is only 3k for EB2IC which suggests that the demand is significantly reduced because of left overs from 2011. I guess Q is right and seems like there is an increase in SOFAD by 6-7 K.

[ChampU]

I called my lawyer about the possibility of my PD (02/22/2008) becoming current this month. The paralegal said that they discussed the Demand Data in their meeting this morning. Her advice was along the lines of what gc_usa has stated. There is a very slim chance of it becoming current this month but it would be current by the end of Q2-2012, for sure, thereby allowing enough time the processing of the GC by the end of the FY.
Based on what I have read on this forum, I already (sort of) knew that. I felt reassured by her "professional advice" but then she dropped the bomb of uncertainty "You never know".
Back to square one.. Visa bulletin time.. keep your hopes high but be prepared for a heart break..

[bieber]

Is it possible that many of the labor substituions filed with June-July2007 time frame got rejected?

[TeddyKoochu]

They have assigned 5.6k quota to EB2 IC. they can do legally but can't go more than 28.6 % of total EB2 in Q1. so Nov will hold them back marching forward. Either DEC or JAN (depend where they can allocate Qtr spillover visas , either in last month or first month of next qtr ) they will make a one shot final big move. I predict it will go all the way up to June - Sep 2008 then.

You are correct about the rules, but what is happening is interesting. Right now the only way to gauge how many numbers they have actually allocated is by the number of people who became current in Oct and are being approved. I just saw 2 approvals on IV. If we see approvals for those who are current it’s an indicator that that part of the law has been condoned and they have allocated the entire cap in October itself. Lets wait and watch, the VB should be out by Friday.

[gc_usa]

I called my lawyer about the possibility of my PD (02/22/2008) becoming current this month. The paralegal said that they discussed the Demand Data in their meeting this morning. Her advice was along the lines of what gc_usa has stated. There is a very slim chance of it becoming current this month but it would be current by the end of Q2-2012, for sure, thereby allowing enough time the processing of the GC by the end of the FY.
Based on what I have read on this forum, I already (sort of) knew that. I felt reassured by her "professional advice" but then she dropped the bomb of uncertainty "You never know".
Back to square one.. Visa bulletin time.. keep your hopes high but be prepared for a heart break..

Thanks Champu for confirming.

I am much more confident now. We heard from some site other day , one of top lawyer also mentioned same, I got news from other resource too that date are not moving much in Nov. In DEC and JAN it will. DEC is 6th month for people who got NVC fee notices up to Jan - Mar 2008. Chances are almost 100% for Jan - March 2008 for DEC unless EB1 demand spike up and DOS can allocate only 2k spillover from EB5. They need at least 1.5k from EB1 after Q1 spillover.

[TeddyKoochu]

Is it possible that many of the labor substituions filed with June-July2007 time frame got rejected?

On the labor substitutions people would retain their old PD, but even I believe that the number of denials or abandonment is high and part of the reduction can be attributed to data cleanup. Some people may have also upgraded to EB1 or been approved through their spouses.

[tackle]

I hope dates move fast. The check list that I got from my attorney to file I-485 do not require any pay stubs or W2s. I checked with them and they say it is not necessary and they do not want to provide any thing more than required. is it ok to apply for
I-485 without pay stubs and two years of W2 ???

Look at the official instructions for filing 485 (http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf) to clarify your doubts. I checked and it didn't look like they ask us to submit paystubs or w2s. But don't take my word for it. Go check it yourself.

[RRRRRR]

Hi gc_usa,

I do not think this number belongs to 2012 quota and the reason is if that would have been the case then China demand would have been much less. since China demand is not reduced significantly so seems like this might be from fy2011 as sofad or as someone mentioned due to rejections filed in that period. your thoughts..

Thanks


DOS allocated all 5.6k visas on OCT , legally they can do it but they cannot assign more than 28.6 % for EB2 total in Q1, so DOS now has some 4-5k left visas and they cannot assign any or all of those to EB2 IC otherwise EB2 will get cutoff date for Dec month.

So DOS will wait for DEC month or Jan ( I don't know if they can assign in last month of qtr or first month of next qtr ) to get some spill over from EB5 and EB1 to satisfy remaining 3k demand. It will be up to DOS to go where ever they want to go. They might have got I 140 data from USCIS or they can go based on past demand data they have and move forward.

Since we know that each month have average 1.5-2.5 k demand for EB2 I/C for 2006,2007 they will go with 2k per month and move at least 10-12 month from July 2007. Even I think if single instance of NVC receipt for Sep 2008 case was right then date will go up to Sep 2008.

[gc_usa]

Hi gc_usa,

I do not think this number belongs to 2012 quota and the reason is if that would have been the case then China demand would have been much less. since China demand is not reduced significantly so seems like this might be from fy2011 as sofad or as someone mentioned due to rejections filed in that period. your thoughts..

Thanks

China has higher demand in July 2007 , almost three time than any other month

[soggadu]

China has higher demand in July 2007 , almost three time than any other month

Interesting...does chinese know that it is going to be current at that time in 2007? or r they labor substitutions?

[natvyas]

You are correct about the rules, but what is happening is interesting. Right now the only way to gauge how many numbers they have actually allocated is by the number of people who became current in Oct and are being approved. I just saw 2 approvals on IV. If we see approvals for those who are current it’s an indicator that that part of the law has been condoned and they have allocated the entire cap in October itself. Lets wait and watch, the VB should be out by Friday.

What is the approval trend on trackitt?

[Kanmani]

I asked a question of this kind last month itself, like what if there are some leftout visas from 2011 with no Row demand ready to go in hand . But Veni replied me, it is not possible to assign them to PDs which are not current.

This scenario of Dos Vs USCIS game is like people selling cattle in village market , closing both the parties' hands with a cloth and counting fingers (seen in movies). Nobody knows what is happening whatever it is .

[10102007]

Look at the official instructions for filing 485 (http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf) to clarify your doubts. I checked and it didn't look like they ask us to submit paystubs or w2s. But don't take my word for it. Go check it yourself.

Lawyers ask for it to show that you have been continuously employed. At least that is what my lawyer said.

[Feb2008]

A lot Chinese did NIW then.

Interesting...does chinese know that it is going to be current at that time in 2007? or r they labor substitutions?

[qblogfan]

The reason for that is there are a huge number of NIW EB2 for China. Many post docs filed EB2 in that month. As what I said before, there are tons of post docs from China.These guys were not qualified for EB1, so they rushed into NIW. For Indian EB2, most of them are working professionals in companies.


Interesting...does chinese know that it is going to be current at that time in 2007? or r they labor substitutions?

[soggadu]

A lot Chinese did NIW then.

hmm...unfortunately/fortunately without post doc most of us are not allowed to do them....NIW... keeping india numbers low...

[qblogfan]

Yes, Mr.CO is totally unpredictable.

When he says there is no movement, then we will see huge movement.

When he says there will be some movement, then we will see no movement.

What he says is usually contrary to the reality. Reverse his words, we will get the truth.


Lol... qblogfan, I really love the way you are constantly after Mr. CO :)

Good luck to you and us all for the Nov VB.

[soggadu]

Yes, Mr.CO is totally unpredictable.

When he says there is no movement, then we will see huge movement.

When he says there will be some movement, then we will see no movement.

What he says is usually contrary to the reality. Reverse his words, we will get the truth.

Qblogfan...looks like you can write a biography on CO... lol...

[ChampU]

Yes, Mr.CO is totally unpredictable.

When he says there is no movement, then we will see huge movement.

When he says there will be some movement, then we will see no movement.

What he says is usually contrary to the reality. Reverse his words, we will get the truth.

Sounds like the classic puzzle.. At a fork on a village road, there are two people standing.. both named CO.. you can ask only 2 questions and find out which way would the VB would go..What should your questions be.. :-)

[belmontboy]

Sounds like the classic puzzle.. At a fork on a village road, there are two people standing.. both named CO.. you can ask only 2 questions and find out which way would the VB would go..What should your questions be.. :-)

reminds me of this paradox - Schrödinger's cat [http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2815 ]

[Kanmani]

So Qblogfan as per your logic, CO said in AILA conference that there is a zero chance of repeating 2007 scenario , making the COD current is impossible , Is the reverse going to be true?



Yes, Mr.CO is totally unpredictable.

When he says there is no movement, then we will see huge movement.

When he says there will be some movement, then we will see no movement.

What he says is usually contrary to the reality. Reverse his words, we will get the truth.

[Alphathought]

Let's start the refresh game now.:D

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_November2011.pdf

[nishant2200]

On the labor substitutions people would retain their old PD, but even I believe that the number of denials or abandonment is high and part of the reduction can be attributed to data cleanup. Some people may have also upgraded to EB1 or been approved through their spouses.

Also I think they might have sent out employment verification letter requests to some applicants since these PDs are so old, and on failure of getting a response, finally sent a NOID or denial.

The request for an employment verification letter for old pre-adjudicated 485s might be compared to a ping call to check if the interface is still active.

Just a theory, since we are wondering on the data cleanup idea.

[sha_kus]

Can this be some FB visas spilled over...

[Nishant_imt]

That surely reminds me of the saying (no offence) "Geek shall inherit the earth".


reminds me of this paradox - Schrödinger's cat [http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2815 ]

[nishant2200]

reminds me of this paradox - Schrödinger's cat [http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2815 ]

:D

let me throw in one of my favorites fellow physics lover.

In VB mechanics, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle states a fundamental limit on the accuracy with which certain pairs of physical properties of a particle, such as SOFAD and movement, can be simultaneously known. In other words, the more precisely one property is measured, the less precisely the other can be controlled, determined, or known.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle

There is one more: The more closer to equilibrium one gets, the more unstable the system becomes. It's like balance of the pen on its point or the nib. If it does get balanced exactly, it's perfect equilibrium, but even the infinitesimally small deviation from it, it's highly unstable.

[nishant2200]

Can this be some FB visas spilled over...

None of the FB categories were current. If it is FB visas, then I think someone will have to answer an angry ombudsman or immigration organization etc, because it means some agency messed up and did not utilize FB properly. This would be my interpretation.

[evoori]

Thanks....

Use the one on your I-140 approval notice, that would be my advise.

[needid]

one of the post in other forum
if 2+2 = 4 then VB date should move into 2008, but if 2+2 = -3.412, then what? CO has his own math...

[nishant2200]

Thanks....

Ideally a person only gets one A # ever. If there are more than one, what they do is at the time of finalizing GC, they merge all your different "identities" and give you a final A #, which is based on the I-140.

For eg: I have a A# on my OPT card after my studies here, and a different A # on my I-140 approval notice. My lawyer is going to use/already uses (used it on my H1 extension), the A # on the I-140 approval.

[gc0907]

:D

let me throw in one of my favorites fellow physics lover.

In VB mechanics, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle states a fundamental limit on the accuracy with which certain pairs of physical properties of a particle, such as SOFAD and movement, can be simultaneously known. In other words, the more precisely one property is measured, the less precisely the other can be controlled, determined, or known.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle

There is one more: The more closer to equilibrium one gets, the more unstable the system becomes. It's like balance of the pen on its point or the nib. If it does get balanced exactly, it's perfect equilibrium, but even the infinitesimally small deviation from it, it's highly unstable.

Some how your post reminded me of BigB physics:

"You See. The Coefficient of the Linear, is juxtapositioned, by the haemoglobin of the atmospheric pressure in the country".

[nishant2200]

This is CM's analysis from US non-immgrant blogspot, credit to CM:

"Interesting? …may be not!!! In order to justify movement in r October VB of about 5100, DOS had to remove those numbers from the demand data. That does not mean in reality those visa are already allocated to the application. My perspective about this is nothing but number game. In order to move dates for next VBs, they have to reduce these numbers; and more surprisingly these numbers will reappear again to justify retrogression in January demand data (as long as DOS wants to intake new demand in 2 months) .
If they will really end up using 5600 annual quota for approving October cases then this would mean movement for rest of the year will only based on available quarterly spillover. This may not be good because then this mean that next movement will only happen as our friend suggested i.e. two big movement in Dec and Jan & then retrogression until July-August.
We will know in few weeks what DOS strategy is.
a) If these visa numbers were really allocated for Oct approvals then we should expect no movement next VB and we have to wait when qtrly spillover will be available.
b) If numbers where just removed to justify the movement for intake for FY 2012 and those numbers will reappear in next few demand data, then we should expect some big leap-ass movement in Nov VB."

[Zoroark]

I think the VB will be released sometime this week. There will not be any movement in November VB. By next month they will have better idea of how many more applications are pending before July 15, 2007 which will include PWMB. There will be BTM in December VB based on that data.

[bieber]

Why would be CO so kind to move dates first to July and then justify it with false information when he infact did nothing in August bulletin

that blog analysis seems unreal

[username]

Cumulative All Other
Demand Prior To China India Countries Grand Total
--------------------------------------------------------------------
January 1, 2007 0 25 0 25
January 1, 2008 1,525 1,150 0 2,675
January1, 2011 1,600 1,275 125 3,000
================================================== ===

What this 3,000 number represent?
Does it means that DOS only have 3K application pre-approved and ready to assign a GC number?
OR It means something else...

[qesehmk]

The whole scenario where china demand is lower than India is fishy. I can't buy into it. Something is wrong here.


Possible but i can't explain why would India get 4K+ and China get 1.5K+?

This is not spillover that they would go by PD unless ofcourse this came out of FY 2011.

Spec this is agreeable, provided that between 1st and 4th October, DoS has set aside those many numbers from 2012 quota towards backlog. An unusual step to say the least.

The difference between the November DD and October DD shows the movement expected to happen in October.


This is quite sensible explanation. If they move dates based on qly spillover (a first for DoS!!) then they don't have to make the category current. They can simply move the dates by the amount of spillover. Secondly it would also mean they can wait november and december out and then move dates in January or February. And then again in April or May.


DOS allocated all 5.6k visas on OCT , legally they can do it but they cannot assign more than 28.6 % for EB2 total in Q1, so DOS now has some 4-5k left visas and they cannot assign any or all of those to EB2 IC otherwise EB2 will get cutoff date for Dec month.

So DOS will wait for DEC month or Jan ( I don't know if they can assign in last month of qtr or first month of next qtr ) to get some spill over from EB5 and EB1 to satisfy remaining 3k demand. It will be up to DOS to go where ever they want to go. They might have got I 140 data from USCIS or they can go based on past demand data they have and move forward.

Since we know that each month have average 1.5-2.5 k demand for EB2 I/C for 2006,2007 they will go with 2k per month and move at least 10-12 month from July 2007. Even I think if single instance of NVC receipt for Sep 2008 case was right then date will go up to Sep 2008.


Well ... if the demand data is dated Oct 4th, then they must have applied significant number (can somebody have prior month demand data and calculate exact number please?) in 4 days or at least set aside that much. Or otherwise basically the SOFAD was bigger in 2011 coupled with the fact that many people simply left GC and DoS could cancel those applications. Depending on how the demand data was reduced (2012 or 2011 numbers) the possibility of making it current can't be denied. At the least we know for sure that DoS recognizes what we have said over and over that by Q2 2012 the dates must move to Jan 2008. But looking at demand data I too got excited! Lets see if CO's VB bulletin pulls the Shrodinger CAT. On another physics side note - i think chaos theory could be quite useful in predicting VB movement and catastrophe theory will useful in explaining events like 2007 fiasco!!

wow wow wow...Q... r u serious? BTM or MKCK ( maa ki!!!!...current kardo)?????

[Kanmani]

Can we expect the bulletin released today evening around 3.45 EST, just like last month's same day DD-VB release?

[Spectator]

Spec this is agreeable, provided that between 1st and 4th October, DoS has set aside those many numbers from 2012 quota towards backlog. An unusual step to say the least.Q,

I think it is more an estimate of what will happen over the whole of the month, rather than the situation when it is published. The same was true for the large movements last year and we suspect not all those cases were actually approved.


This is quite sensible explanation. If they move dates based on qly spillover (a first for DoS!!) then they don't have to make the category current. They can simply move the dates by the amount of spillover. Secondly it would also mean they can wait november and december out and then move dates in January or February. And then again in April or May.
I agree. Even with the COD movement to date, enough preadjudicated cases, let alone adding porting, are available to use the entire EB2-IC initial allocation.

Also CO said in the October VB that the forward movement was purely to generate demand:

The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.
CO is aware that significant demand exists beyond the current backlog. If made Current, Retrogression would not be a "distinct possibility" - it would be a certainty!! "Slowing" or "stopping" doesn't even come into the equation. I think that means a controlled forward movement, as we have been discussing.



Well ... if the demand data is dated Oct 4th, then they must have applied significant number (can somebody have prior month demand data and calculate exact number please?) in 4 days or at least set aside that much. Or otherwise basically the SOFAD was bigger in 2011 coupled with the fact that many people simply left GC and DoS could cancel those applications. Depending on how the demand data was reduced (2012 or 2011 numbers) the possibility of making it current can't be denied. At the least we know for sure that DoS recognizes what we have said over and over that by Q2 2012 the dates must move to Jan 2008. But looking at demand data I too got excited! Lets see if CO's VB bulletin pulls the Shrodinger CAT. On another physics side note - i think chaos theory could be quite useful in predicting VB movement and catastrophe theory will useful in explaining events like 2007 fiasco!!The changes between the October and November Demand Data Reports were:

China -- 1,650
India -- 3,725

Total -- 5,375

[TeddyKoochu]

Current Trackitt Trend
EB1-C - 4
EB3 - 2
EB2 ROW - 5
EB2 - 9

Out of the 11 approvals 1 is a PWMB case, 4 are porting cases. This leaves 4 cases which became current in Oct and got approved. Overall the Eb2 approval trend seems to be good its split evenly between the newly current cases and older cases.

[soggadu]

Current Trackitt Trend
EB1-C - 4
EB3 - 2
EB2 ROW - 5
EB2 - 9

Out of the 11 approvals 1 is a PWMB case, 4 are porting cases. This leaves 4 cases which became current in Oct and got approved. Overall the Eb2 approval trend seems to be good its split evenly between the newly current cases and older cases.

so what do you project for this bulletin from this?

[bhayzone]

Guys, I had a question regarding I-485 filing. I would appreciate any help.

I am EB2-I (PD: 10/10/2007) waiting to file I-485. I quit employer A (who filed my PERM/I-140) to join employer B in 2008. Last month employer B laid off 300 ppl and I was one of them, so I rejoined employer A. My H1-B transfer is still pending. If my PD becomes current, will I be able to file for I-485 through employer A (even though my h1b transfer is still pending). It would really suck if I had to wait till my h1b transfer was approved, which could take several months !!!

[10102007]

Guys, I had a question regarding I-485 filing. I would appreciate any help.

I am EB2-I (PD: 10/10/2007) waiting to file I-485. I quit employer A (who filed my PERM/I-140) to join employer B in 2008. Last month employer B laid off 300 ppl and I was one of them, so I rejoined employer A. My H1-B transfer is still pending. If my PD becomes current, will I be able to file for I-485 through employer A (even though my h1b transfer is still pending). It would really suck if I had to wait till my h1b transfer was approved, which could take several months !!!

As far as I know, you can. Your GC is for future employment and hence you should be able to apply for 485. Double check with your lawyer.

Hey same PD for me too

[nishant2200]

Approval Notice of I-140, that you have, is all is needed to attach to I-485 application.


one off topic question
Do we(Employee) receive original I-140 approval? I have only approval notice, Never saw the original I-140, according our admin guy they(Employer) would get only approval notice.It looks like for filing I-485,we don't need original I-140, if one exist, we just need,
--Approval notice for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker;

Anybody thinks otherwise.

[Spectator]

Current Trackitt Trend
EB1-C - 4
EB3 - 2
EB2 ROW - 5
EB2 - 9

Out of the 11 approvals 1 is a PWMB case, 4 are porting cases. This leaves 4 cases which became current in Oct and got approved. Overall the Eb2 approval trend seems to be good its split evenly between the newly current cases and older cases.Once you correct the data for Porting and CofC it is slightly different (although not much :) ) .

EB1-C ---- 4 (all Indian)
EB3 ------ 1 (1 ROW)
EB2 ROW -- 5
EB2-I --- 10 (1 Porting case still shown in EB3)

Of the 10 EB2-I, they are broken down as follows:

FY2011 Cut Off Dates --- 0
FY2012 Cut Off Dates --- 4
Porting ---------------- 6
Total ----------------- 10

EB1 approvals are very healthy compared to the same period last year (although that was probably artificially low).

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?181-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2012-vs.-FY2011

[codesmith]

one off topic question
Do we(Employee) receive original I-140 approval? I have only approval notice, Never saw the original I-140, according our admin guy they(Employer) would get only approval notice.It looks like for filing I-485,we don't need original I-140, if one exist, we just need,
--Approval notice for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker;

Anybody thinks otherwise.

Original I-140 in sent to your employer and what I found from my personal experience and others is : DESI employers never share it ... even the photocopy.
Since your 485 would be filed by your employer s/he would send 140 and other docs when submitting your 485.

[nishant2200]

Yes I believe it should not be any problem.

GC is for future job anyways. Only thing is did you maintain status in between. Seems to me you have. You can absolutely work for employer A while your H1B transfer is pending, main thing is it should be applied for.


Guys, I had a question regarding I-485 filing. I would appreciate any help.

I am EB2-I (PD: 10/10/2007) waiting to file I-485. I quit employer A (who filed my PERM/I-140) to join employer B in 2008. Last month employer B laid off 300 ppl and I was one of them, so I rejoined employer A. My H1-B transfer is still pending. If my PD becomes current, will I be able to file for I-485 through employer A (even though my h1b transfer is still pending). It would really suck if I had to wait till my h1b transfer was approved, which could take several months !!!

[TeddyKoochu]

so what do you project for this bulletin from this?

My projection for the year is that everyone in 2007 will get to file 485, now it’s entirely discretionary with DOS-USCIS how much intake they want to take this month irrespective of everything. Just my guess out of gut feeling if we have intake this month it would be 2-3 months of movement, there is no calculation behind this as we haven't seen much of data in 2012 yet. The fresh intake will happen if they are following the FB model of intake in Q1 and retro in Q2, if they want to follow quarterly spillover then the current inventory itself is good.

[skpanda]

Below is the answer to your question:


Q: Why were there pending cases listed with priority dates after August 2007 when the Visa Bulletin priority dates was never beyond August 2007?

A: We have reviewed the source data for the inventory and have determined that a number of errors contributed to the appearance of cases with a 2008 or 2009 priority date in countries and preferences for which the priority date has not advanced beyond 2007 in the DOS Visa Bulletin. First, several of these cases had more than one approved I-140, and, rather than list the case by the earlier priority date, we erroneously listed the case by the later priority date. Several more cases were cross-chargeable to a non-retrogressed country but were listed under the retrogressed country. Finally, a handful of cases involved simple data-entry errors.


Source:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=5e170e6bcb7e3210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=24b0a6c515083210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD





I have one basic question.

I am looking at the table for EB2. If the latest AOS filing date for EB2-I&C was August 07, how come there are 75 extra apps for C between 08 and 11 and 125 for I for the same period. Am I missing something here?

If it has been already answered in last year's post, please pardon me for my ignorance and point me to the post, if possible.

[Monica12]

Current Trackitt Trend
EB1-C - 4
EB3 - 2
EB2 ROW - 5
EB2 - 9

Out of the 11 approvals 1 is a PWMB case, 4 are porting cases. This leaves 4 cases which became current in Oct and got approved. Overall the Eb2 approval trend seems to be good its split evenly between the newly current cases and older cases.
Just now, another EB2 I approval (NSC) on Trackitt with July PD. Looks like we now have a couple from all April, May, June and July. Hei bhagwan...meri nayya bhi paar laga do ( Oh God, pls approve mine also soon)

[Spectator]

My projection for the year is that everyone in 2007 will get to file 485, now it’s entirely discretionary with DOS-USCIS how much intake they want to take this month irrespective of everything. Just my guess out of gut feeling if we have intake this month it would be 2-3 months of movement, there is no calculation behind this as we haven't seen much of data in 2012 yet. The fresh intake will happen if they are following the FB model of intake in Q1 and retro in Q2, if they want to follow quarterly spillover then the current inventory itself is good.Teddy,

As ever, very well summarized. Hopefully the November VB will give us a clue as to which approach is being followed.

[soggadu]

one off topic question
Do we(Employee) receive original I-140 approval? I have only approval notice, Never saw the original I-140, according our admin guy they(Employer) would get only approval notice.It looks like for filing I-485,we don't need original I-140, if one exist, we just need,
--Approval notice for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker;

Anybody thinks otherwise.

140 application is company property...all you need is 140 approval notice to get the A number from there and to check you were in the right lane (EB2/3)... i believe a copy of approval is all they need to apply for 485... so chill...

[needid]

Thanks Nishanth, Codesmith.

Approval Notice of I-140, that you have, is all is needed to attach to I-485 application.

[soggadu]

Guys, I had a question regarding I-485 filing. I would appreciate any help.

I am EB2-I (PD: 10/10/2007) waiting to file I-485. I quit employer A (who filed my PERM/I-140) to join employer B in 2008. Last month employer B laid off 300 ppl and I was one of them, so I rejoined employer A. My H1-B transfer is still pending. If my PD becomes current, will I be able to file for I-485 through employer A (even though my h1b transfer is still pending). It would really suck if I had to wait till my h1b transfer was approved, which could take several months !!!

i dont think that wud be an issue as GC is filed for future employment...

[mysati]

Below is the answer to your question:


Q: Why were there pending cases listed with priority dates after August 2007 when the Visa Bulletin priority dates was never beyond August 2007?

A: We have reviewed the source data for the inventory and have determined that a number of errors contributed to the appearance of cases with a 2008 or 2009 priority date in countries and preferences for which the priority date has not advanced beyond 2007 in the DOS Visa Bulletin. First, several of these cases had more than one approved I-140, and, rather than list the case by the earlier priority date, we erroneously listed the case by the later priority date. Several more cases were cross-chargeable to a non-retrogressed country but were listed under the retrogressed country. Finally, a handful of cases involved simple data-entry errors.


Source:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=5e170e6bcb7e3210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=24b0a6c515083210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Thank you SK!

[bhayzone]

Yes I believe it should not be any problem.

GC is for future job anyways. Only thing is did you maintain status in between. Seems to me you have. You can absolutely work for employer A while your H1B transfer is pending, main thing is it should be applied for.

I believe I maintained status. My termination date at employer B was 9/21 and the receipt date on the receipt notice for the h1b transfer says 9/22. On the termination package, employer A mentioned that they would be revoking the h1b effective 9/22. Do you think I am covered.

Of course I am looking at an RFE for the employer-employee crap, coz I am missing a client letter (my client does not provide client letters for consultants - at least that is what I think). Though my currently employer has provided a lot of supporting documentation - don't know how it will go. Gosh, just weeks ago I was in a comfortable good position, no worries about GC, almost certain that there would be no hassle. And all of a sudden fate changed it all upside down - now not a day goes by without the burden of uncertainty.

Sorry for the rant .. just couldn't help it.

[TeddyKoochu]

Just now, another EB2 I approval (NSC) on Trackitt with July PD. Looks like we now have a couple from all April, May, June and July. Hei bhagwan...meri nayya bhi paar laga do ( Oh God, pls approve mine also soon)

The Trackitt trend indicates significant number of approvals thus far. Though we are just into 3 days some thoughts a) EB1 and EB2 ROW are moving steady b) Porting is not small (I have been a believer in the higher end) c) Looks like they want to really approve cases this month it may well match the demand data reduction, this will burn out India’s annual cap completely this month itself at the current rate.

[nishant2200]

I believe you should be fine regarding the dates.

About the client letter, if your H1 transfer gets approved, there is no problem. I don't think the employer-employee memo applies to 485 processing.


I believe I maintained status. My termination date at employer B was 9/21 and the receipt date on the receipt notice for the h1b transfer says 9/22. On the termination package, employer A mentioned that they would be revoking the h1b effective 9/22. Do you think I am covered.

Of course I am looking at an RFE for the employer-employee crap, coz I am missing a client letter (my client does not provide client letters for consultants - at least that is what I think). Though my currently employer has provided a lot of supporting documentation - don't know how it will go. Gosh, just weeks ago I was in a comfortable good position, no worries about GC, almost certain that there would be no hassle. And all of a sudden fate changed it all upside down - now not a day goes by without the burden of uncertainty.

Sorry for the rant .. just couldn't help it.

[casantino]

Hi Nishant,

Don't you also need approval of the employer who sponsored your I-140? If a person moves on to company B from company A (which filed I-140) and applies to for I-485 based on that I-140, wouldnt he need approval from company A? What if company A no longer wishes to proceed with the GC of that person?




Approval Notice of I-140, that you have, is all is needed to attach to I-485 application.

[TeddyKoochu]

Once you correct the data for Porting and CofC it is slightly different (although not much :) ) .

EB1-C ---- 4 (all Indian)
EB3 ------ 1 (1 ROW)
EB2 ROW -- 5
EB2-I --- 10 (1 Porting case still shown in EB3)

Of the 10 EB2-I, they are broken down as follows:

FY2011 Cut Off Dates --- 0
FY2012 Cut Off Dates --- 4
Porting ---------------- 6
Total ----------------- 10

EB1 approvals are very healthy compared to the same period last year (although that was probably artificially low).

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?181-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2012-vs.-FY2011

Spec, Thanks for correcting and posting based on the initial figures both EB1 and porting seem to be higher than usual. Interestingly most of the EB1 is EB1C and from India, looks like most of these cases were kind of preadjudicated in Sep but they ran out of numbers.

[RRRRRR]

you will be ok, if they have sent a package out on 09/22 then it will take another 2-3 months to cancel the H1 unless they filed it premium which i am sure never happens and then it can get cancelled in 15 days.
Looking at your situation I guess you are well covered and I do not see any issues with it. I read an article on Murthy around a year back and i will see if i can find it again and forward that to you...Good luck


I believe I maintained status. My termination date at employer B was 9/21 and the receipt date on the receipt notice for the h1b transfer says 9/22. On the termination package, employer A mentioned that they would be revoking the h1b effective 9/22. Do you think I am covered.

Of course I am looking at an RFE for the employer-employee crap, coz I am missing a client letter (my client does not provide client letters for consultants - at least that is what I think). Though my currently employer has provided a lot of supporting documentation - don't know how it will go. Gosh, just weeks ago I was in a comfortable good position, no worries about GC, almost certain that there would be no hassle. And all of a sudden fate changed it all upside down - now not a day goes by without the burden of uncertainty.

Sorry for the rant .. just couldn't help it.

[rdsingh79]

Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Nov2011.pdf


And I am current!!!

[Kanmani]

Thanks rdsingh79
Congrats to friends who are current as of Nov

CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA
AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants
from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices.
While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not
be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be
the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the
cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

[TeddyKoochu]

Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Nov2011.pdf


And I am current!!!

That’s great news, even I became current finally. Sogaddu I believe even you are current. Congrats to everyone finally current.

[cbpds1]

Great , Im just within 3 months now, phew, congrats to all those who became current!!


Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Nov2011.pdf


And I am current!!!

[sha_kus]

nice move congrats to everybody so atleast they can file EAD.

[cbpds1]

Congrats Teddy !!


That’s great news, even I became current finally. Sogaddu I believe even you are current. Congrats to everyone finally current.

[qesehmk]

Congrats to those current! This confirms with certainty that movement will be gradual rather than 2-3 years or more.

As per why Nov 1? That's almost 3.5 months movement. It is equal to roughly 9K demand (give or take 1-2K). This is the absolute minimum that our model has predicted. So as teh bulletin says further movement will be possible with possibility of retrogression (0% as it is today - to 100% anything beyond May 2008).


Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Nov2011.pdf


And I am current!!!

[suninphx]

That’s great news, even I became current finally. Sogaddu I believe even you are current. Congrats to everyone finally current.

Congtrats All who are current!!

[Kanmani]

Teddy, Soggadu, 10/10/2007, belmontboy, indiaeb2 congrats
who else left?

[belmontboy]

Teddy, Soggadu, 10/10/2007 congrats
who else left?

mine is 10/29/2007. can't believe this!

[bleakHope]

rdsingh79...thanks a lot for breaking this wonderful news!!!

[indiaeb2]

me too...finally

[bieber]

Teddy, the wait is over for u, congrats

Soggadu, congrats

[gcseeker]

Very happy for those who became currently Finally. Teddy you definetly deserve it.Congrats to Soggadu as well.

myself and Nishant just missed it ( Mine is Nov 9th and Nishant is probably around the same time ) . I just hope it moves in the next VB too.

Congrats once again.

[skpanda]

Congratulations to everybody who are current!! You all deserved this break!!

Good luck!!

[ram_40001]

Its not on the website

[ram_40001]

Also, per the PDF

"D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA
AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants
from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices.
While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not
be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be
the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the
cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility."

[skpanda]

Just FYI everybody -

Distinct means - Definately
This to me means they want to go ahead and get 30K+ applications before March 2012 like our Gurus predicted and then retrogess.

Good luck to all!



Thanks rdsingh79
Congrats to friends who are current as of Nov

CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA
AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants
from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices.
While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not
be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be
the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the
cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

[10102007]

Teddy, Soggadu, 10/10/2007, belmontboy, indiaeb2 congrats
who else left?

Thanks Kanmani, but where are you all seeing? Still says coming soon the travel.state.gov website

[vishnu]

I like the use of the word 'significant' before future cut of date movements... congrats to all who became current and can get EADs.

[veni001]

That’s great news, even I became current finally. Sogaddu I believe even you are current. Congrats to everyone finally current.

Congratulations Teddy and all others who will be current in November.

[krishnav]

I am current too (Sept 13 2007). Congratulations to all the people who became current. And a BIG THANKS to al lthe gurus who have been helping us with all the questions we have with their superb analysis skills.
I cant express my gratitude towards you guys in words.

[srd4gc]

Congrats to all who are current...i missed it by few days (11/15/07)...hopefully dates move in the next bulletin too...

[mysati]

Congrats and Good luck to all people "Current"!

[vishnu]

the next demand data will be extremely interesting to get a good sense of how close our calculations for potential demand match the reality...

[waitingEB2]

Congratulations to many who became current. Mine is Feb 2008. Hopefully that will happen soon too.

[Kanmani]

Some techies are pulling out the pdf version from the internet before it is posted in the respective link. ( just like eating in the kitchen itself before it is being served in the dining table)

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf




Thanks Kanmani, but where are you all seeing? Still says coming soon the travel.state.gov website

[Spectator]

Congratulations to everybody who has become Current! Woo Hoo!!

Special thoughts to Teddy, who has done so much to manage the expectations of the community. I am so pleased for you.

PS Looks like the FB model.

[rdsingh79]

Its been a very lucky day for me. This morning I clicked on bookmarked link for Demand Data and I saw the Nov data posted (first try). And then this afternoon I tried the Nov VB linked and the pdf document loaded!!! (instead of "sorry cannot find the webpage on DOS website). With huge anticipation, I scrolled down (hands trembling) and voilaa....Nov 01 2007...means i am current. Indeed a very lucky day for me. May be today I should buy Powerball and Mega Millions tickets too:D:D


rdsingh79...thanks a lot for breaking this wonderful news!!!

[needid]

Congrats T, You are a great contributor , reading all your words for past 2 years. I am current too.

[qesehmk]

LoL!! True!

Rdsingh79 made a lot of people's day today!


Some techies are pulling out the pdf version from the internet before it is posted in the respective link. ( just like eating in the kitchen itself before it is being served in the dining table)

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf

[evoori]

Thanks rdsingh.. me on 09/25/2007..

I could feel the pressure inside my head went away..


Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Nov2011.pdf


And I am current!!!

[needid]

mee needid Oct 28, 2011,

Teddy, Soggadu, 10/10/2007, belmontboy, indiaeb2 congrats
who else left?