EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[GreenReddy]

Hi Q,

What is the last date to apply for 485 when PD is current.

My PD is current with the december bulletin.

Is there a specific time frame to send the application??? can i apply around 15-20 december???

Please suggest.

[pdmay2008]

Hi Q,

What is the last date to apply for 485 when PD is current.

My PD is current with the december bulletin.

Is there a specific time frame to send the application??? can i apply around 15-20 december???

Please suggest.

You can send your application as long the date stays current. You can act based on the VB that comes out for the next month. If dates get retrogressed in next month bulletin, you will have chance to file till last date of that month.

[GreenReddy]

Hi Pdmay2008,

You mean i can apply till 31st Dec 2011 since my PD will be effect from Dec 1st 2011.

My Wife is in INDIA and will be here on Dec 5th, so after the medicals and all i am planning to apply around 15 Dec 2011.

Just want to check with gurus that its safe to do that. If not i have to prepone her trip.

[RRRRRR]

Hi GreenReddy,

USCIS should get your documents on or by Dec 31st. Incase for January bulletion the dates moves further or stay as it is and do not go back prior to yours then you will have additional 31 days (of January) to file your papers. You will get to know that once the next bulletin is out in second week of December. Thanks




Hi Pdmay2008,

You mean i can apply till 31st Dec 2011 since my PD will be effect from Dec 1st 2011.

My Wife is in INDIA and will be here on Dec 5th, so after the medicals and all i am planning to apply around 15 Dec 2011.

Just want to check with gurus that its safe to do that. If not i have to prepone her trip.

[GreenReddy]

Hi GreenReddy,

USCIS should get your documents on or by Dec 31st. Incase for January bulletion the dates moves further or stay as it is and do not go back prior to yours then you will have additional 31 days (of January) to file your papers. You will get to know that once the next bulletin is out in second week of December. Thanks

Thanks RRRRRR

[GreenReddy]

Guru's one more question,

Is it better to apply together along with my dependent or can we both apply individually with a gap of 10 days.

Which one is a better option??

[druvraj]

This is my first post. I have been a lurker for almost a year. However, this forum has been a great resource for my understanding of the process. Q, Spec, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, and every one of you has been great. I am missing sogaddu for a while especially he cracks me up on every one of his post.

Having said that, my wife's employer had sponsored her for Eb2 and the PD is Mar 8, 2008. So yeeaaah..she is current.

Couple of questions -

1) Unfortunately, she is travelling to India for family medical emergency this weekend and coming back on the first week of December. She would need to get her H1 stamped. Can there be a problem in stamping that now she is current.

2) We have not filed the 485 ever so we are planning to file for 485, EAD, and AP after she returns. Is there anything that we should do in advance so that we can file the paperwork immediately upon her return.

FrenzyRider

Hi Frenzyrider,

I am in exactly same boat. Need to goto India on behalf of my company and get my H1B stamped. I will be current as of Dec 1. Hope I do not run into any problems with my H1B stamping.

[ChampU]

I got the check list of docs from my attorney.. I have a DWI offense in NJ in 2007 on my arrest record.It isnt a criminal offense. He asked me to submit a "certified copy" of the court disposition letter. I do have the original disposition letter with the court seal.
Does the certified copy mean the original court letter or a notarized copy of the same?

[evoori]

It is better to apply together.. If you apply individually, then normally USCIS asks for more document such as your I-485 receipt and more solid marriage proof such as joint income-tax return etc..

Guru's one more question,

Is it better to apply together along with my dependent or can we both apply individually with a gap of 10 days.

Which one is a better option??

[tometukuri]

Does this mean, folks who are current in the Dec bulletin can send in the 485 application betwen Dec 1 and Dec 31?


Hi GreenReddy,

USCIS should get your documents on or by Dec 31st. Incase for January bulletion the dates moves further or stay as it is and do not go back prior to yours then you will have additional 31 days (of January) to file your papers. You will get to know that once the next bulletin is out in second week of December. Thanks

[immitime]

Hi Frenzyrider,

I am in exactly same boat. Need to goto India on behalf of my company and get my H1B stamped. I will be current as of Dec 1. Hope I do not run into any problems with my H1B stamping.

If you are not in a hurry to stamp your H1B, Please wait for EAD and AP and then go to India That is the safest thing, now adays we will never know the result of H1B stamping especially if you are with a consulting company.

Good Luck to You and family.

[gcseeker]

Thanks to all of you :) .Thanks to all those conveying congratulations. I still cannot beleive it is true.Leaving for my medicals in a few minutes.

This forum has been a godsend,cannot state in words the guidance this forum had given in terms of the opaque gc process.

Too emotional right now ...Thank you all and I pray rest of the 2008 folks get an chance to file EAD soon as well.

[RRRRRR]

Does this mean, folks who are current in the Dec bulletin can send in the 485 application betwen Dec 1 and Dec 31?

That is correct you cannot submit your application before Dec 1st although you get extra time if in the next bulletin dates stay where there are or they move forward. you will get to know that in second week of December.

[pbuckeye]

Q/Teddy -

I was an early follower/participant on the original thread on **. I had always believed in the analysis, going as far back as VDLRao's calculations. I am finally current in this bulletin and just wanted to say that you guys have done a great job in bringing clarity to the date movements and the actual numbers involved.

Q - you have also managed to maintain a reasonable environment here given how bitter the tone usually gets with immigration related discussions. Kudos and keep it sane.

I am not sure what went between ** and you but I think you both have your own place in this world (them with advocacy and you with analysis). Note: I do routinely defend the much-reviled "predictions/calculations" there, so had to balance it out here :-)

Anyway, just wanted to check in and say hello.

[ontheedge]

Here I am with a PD of 3/15/2008...truly on the edge. I KNOW after reading the visa bulletin and the numerous posts on Q blog that I'm NOT current come Dec 1. Funnily, my company lawyer insists I am current and should definitely file in Dec. Somebody told me if I do that, checks would be cashed and application would be denied.

Here's what I'm thinking of doing - get everything ready and wait for Dec 10 (Jan bulletin). If dates move and I'm really current, I file on Jan 1 2012. If not, we'll see.

BTW, I've been trying to post after registering for weeks. Q sorted everthing for me today. Even though my first post is all about my situation, I do want to thank all of you guys...Q, Teddy, Spec, Nishant, Veni...and many others. I've been reading the blog everyday since I chanced upon it, it is such a breath of fresh air! You guys absolutely rock and have managed to make sense out of the vaguest information available. Thank you all.

[druvraj]

If you are not in a hurry to stamp your H1B, Please wait for EAD and AP and then go to India That is the safest thing, now adays we will never know the result of H1B stamping especially if you are with a consulting company.

Good Luck to You and family.

Hi immitime,

If I could I would but how can I tell my employer that the business trip needs to be postponed because of my GC process. I am not in a consulting company and going to India as a business development manager.

[srinivasj]

I am PWMB filed on July 1st for me and my wife.....Got receipts in 20days, finger print notice received on aug 1st for aug 30th...got my EAD and AP in 45 days...
during finger printing they said I should receive my GC in another 45 days...

Its been almost 4 months now and status is still in Initial stage...My application is from TCS and current processing time is Mar 6th...

guys is there way to expedite the processing or we need to wait till processing times to reach till july 1st for them to look at my case...?

[shashinehal]

My PRiority date is 03/23/2011 , what are the best predications ? Will i be lucky to get current by 2013 March or it would be longer than that ?

[qesehmk]

Guys its difficult to respond to all, but once again hearty congratulations to all those current!

pbuckeye thanks for your courtesy. But most importantly congratulations! I absolutely remember you. It has been a pleasure. ** basically banned me and then spread rumours about me. Anyway that's not important. The clearance of EB2IC backlog is paramount. And to the extent people feel that we helped them even a little bit is satisfying.

Q/Teddy -

I was an early follower/participant on the original thread on **. I had always believed in the analysis, going as far back as VDLRao's calculations. I am finally current in this bulletin and just wanted to say that you guys have done a great job in bringing clarity to the date movements and the actual numbers involved.

Q - you have also managed to maintain a reasonable environment here given how bitter the tone usually gets with immigration related discussions. Kudos and keep it sane.

I am not sure what went between ** and you but I think you both have your own place in this world (them with advocacy and you with analysis). Note: I do routinely defend the much-reviled "predictions/calculations" there, so had to balance it out here :-)

Anyway, just wanted to check in and say hello.

gcseeker, again ...it makes it worth to see genuine reactions from people. I really wish people continue to come here and help each other.

Thanks to all of you :) .Thanks to all those conveying congratulations. I still cannot beleive it is true.Leaving for my medicals in a few minutes.

This forum has been a godsend,cannot state in words the guidance this forum had given in terms of the opaque gc process.

Too emotional right now ...Thank you all and I pray rest of the 2008 folks get an chance to file EAD soon as well.

ChampU you should be mentioned our hall of fame!! Certified means notarized in my opinion. But I may be wrong.

I got the check list of docs from my attorney.. I have a DWI offense in NJ in 2007 on my arrest record.It isnt a criminal offense. He asked me to submit a "certified copy" of the court disposition letter. I do have the original disposition letter with the court seal.
Does the certified copy mean the original court letter or a notarized copy of the same?

Pedro - the registration itself allows a fairamount of annonymity. So i think its fair for people to register if they want to post something. As per Kanmani's thread - or anybody else who wants to attrack attention - a small piece of advice. People are always driven by self-interest. And nothing wrong in that. If they are not participating .... its not as important or valuable to them. Don't take it personally. That's just the bottomline. A case in point - we have so many other sub-forums - poetry - donation - enterprenuer etc .... but the traction is here. The reason is simple - people really care about understanding when they are going to get their GC!! Now that explains why we do see some traction to advocacy!

Add the request and url to your signature. And stop deleting your posts, so people look at the signature. It'll drive more traffic there.

Also, the vast majority of views are generally by guests who can't post since they haven't registered yet. Q, is there a way we can make certain threads open to comments from guests?

As long as your date remains current (which I assume will remain current) you can file. I do not think that dates will or should retrogress from where they are today. Only if they move beyond Apr or May I would expect tehy would retrogress.


Hi Q,

What is the last date to apply for 485 when PD is current.

My PD is current with the december bulletin.

Is there a specific time frame to send the application??? can i apply around 15-20 december???

Please suggest.


This is my first post. I have been a lurker for almost a year. However, this forum has been a great resource for my understanding of the process. Q, Spec, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, and every one of you has been great. I am missing sogaddu for a while especially he cracks me up on every one of his post.

Having said that, my wife's employer had sponsored her for Eb2 and the PD is Mar 8, 2008. So yeeaaah..she is current.

Couple of questions -

1) Unfortunately, she is travelling to India for family medical emergency this weekend and coming back on the first week of December. She would need to get her H1 stamped. Can there be a problem in stamping that now she is current.

2) We have not filed the 485 ever so we are planning to file for 485, EAD, and AP after she returns. Is there anything that we should do in advance so that we can file the paperwork immediately upon her return.

FrenzyRider
FrenzyRider, H1 is dual intent visa. There is no reason why they should NOT stamp her solely based on her GC application. If they decline it will be because of different reason. Not because of her GC application.



Thanks! I have sent an email to the CEO and asked him to start 485, but I don't know whether he will move forward! He delayed my PERM for 2 years or more! He may think this slave will get freedom and may not be happy about it. Plus the company is shaking and may collapse soon! I will see how it goes!

qbf stop pause and listen. 485 is something that you can file on your own!!! You DO NOT need your employer for that. Alright?? Just do it!

[smuggymba]

This is my first post. Although following this blog for few months.

Congrats everyone who became current in Dec.

My PD is Feb 26 2009. I guess my PD will be current in 2013. But my husband H1b max out in july 2012 and has no GC going on. considering his career, He doesn't want to go to H4 status for more than few months. I feel "my PD is close but still far". I pray everyday my PD gets in before his H1B is over, to avoid family separation.

Praying doesn't get you GC. I'm sure you know that.

In today's world, you don't get anything unless you work for it. Take a day off and try to meet with the local congressmen and/or the senator. If you can't do that, praying won't help much...it's a good thing though.

[tometukuri]

That is correct you cannot submit your application before Dec 1st although you get extra time if in the next bulletin dates stay where there are or they move forward. you will get to know that in second week of December.

Thanks RRRRRR, That helps.I did not know this simple fact but it helps in my favor.Even though I am all set with the docs...my company takes around 3-4 weeks to process lawyers payment and the timing works well.

On another note, I hope CO will be generous in the next few bulletins so that folks can atleast get their EAD's...partial freedom I guess.

[vipulgupta470]

Gurus,

Pardon me if this question has been asked before.

What is the approx ETA to get the green card if I apply for I485 on Dec 1st.

My PD is Feb 27th 2008.

Once again, congrats all who got current in this bulletin. Got my medical exam done today. It was a breeze!

[imdeng]

It is amazing how fast we have moved from a calculation/prediction mode to a primarily "how-to" mode. Nothing wrong with that - I guess the audience profile is changing fast with the old guard (PWMBs, Late 2007 PDs) moving on and new batch (2008/2009 PDs) becoming more active. We are building a good amount of knowledge base here and considering that the search here is not very effective, we need something like a Hall-of-Fame thread to archive posts with valuable information - I am aware of the different threads for 485 etc - but they also tend to fill up with chatter.

I have no problem with people asking questions - I myself asked one recently and was helped immensely by the board. However, please also consider logging in and helping others as well. If you have two posts six months apart and both of them are questions - then that does not reflect well on your contribution to the forum. I am sure people will be more inclined to help if you have helped others in the forum in the past.

[Trident]

Srinivas - Do you remember how many days it took between filing for FP and getting the EAD/AP approval notice/card. Thanks in advance


I am PWMB filed on July 1st for me and my wife.....Got receipts in 20days, finger print notice received on aug 1st for aug 30th...got my EAD and AP in 45 days...
during finger printing they said I should receive my GC in another 45 days...

Its been almost 4 months now and status is still in Initial stage...My application is from TCS and current processing time is Mar 6th...

guys is there way to expedite the processing or we need to wait till processing times to reach till july 1st for them to look at my case...?

[Trident]

Q - I was under the assumption that the sponsors take care of maintanance. If not please let us know, we can do our part to contribute. I think it wont be a issue with other folks... we can even stream line and add more futures if needed.



Congratulations to everyone who became current this VB!!!! Be on your feet between now and your file reaches CIS. I really mean it....

It's nice to see the tone of the thread changing from prediction/calculations to 'How to' mode. Just as seasons change...
We must have a hall-of-fame and also preserve some of these pages so that we can revisit the memory-lane, may be in 10 years? :)

Thanks again Q, I know you are shelling out of your pocket for this website.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Q, I have a humble request. Please let us know how can we contribute monetarily to keep this site up and running. You, Veni, Spec, Teddy, Nishant and many significant others have been doing a wonderful job which is really helping a lot of people and I would feel really bad if along with doing all these, you guys are also shelling out of your pocket to maintain it. I was under the impression that sponsors take care of maintaining the site.

Certainly, I can not match you folks in data mining, calculations and predictions neither I intend to but at least I can contribute in whatever way I can to help out.

I think most of the visitors of this site will be willing to contribute. Please let us know.

Thanks again.

[qesehmk]

Leo / Jonty / Trident,

We are quite blessed to even have such people who offer to donate.

We are fine. We receive about 100 dollars per month in revenue. And that is ok for since we ourselves do the maintenance etc.

May be I can hire some professional help to maintain it and add some functionality. But in any case I can't accept donations since this site is technically not a 501C3 i.e. US non-profit (although we run it like one).

If you would like to donate - please donate to our charity of month (10-20-100 or even bigger!!). And if you choose to do so - please do let me know - I will mention your name on our website.

[gc_usa]

I had all docs ready before bulletin was released and as soon as it came out I sent to lawer and by end of the day he sent me all forms to make a print and sing. This weekend I will be doing medical and mid of next week all set.

[ontheedge]

I made sure my lawyer applied on the 21st and not 22nd. Applying on the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd usually results in this feeling of *just missing out* - PD dates usually stop of those dreaded days. Anyway, good luck, you will get your turn.

I know, hindsight is always 20/20. Unfortunately, back in 2008..I had no clue about the cut off date pattern. And the lawyer would not have listened to me anyway. I understand there is a huge chance of movement in the next bulletin so I am not that disappointed. What's another 30 days when we've waited so long?

The company lawyer INSISTS I am current. He says he been in this business for years and thats how they have always interpreted the cut off date!!
What will happen if I do file in December? Will the petition be denied?

[familyguy]

see this from bulletin:

"Only applicants who have a priority date earlier than the cut-off date may be allotted a number."

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5603.html


I know, hindsight is always 20/20. Unfortunately, back in 2008..I had no clue about the cut off date pattern. And the lawyer would not have listened to me anyway. I understand there is a huge chance of movement in the next bulletin so I am not that disappointed. What's another 30 days when we've waited so long?

The company lawyer INSISTS I am current. He says he been in this business for years and thats how they have always interpreted the cut off date!!
What will happen if I do file in December? Will the petition be denied?

[kd2008]

From http://immigration-law.com/


11/11/2011: Senate Version of the House H.R. 3012 Per Country Numberical Limitation Elimination Bill Introduced in the Senate Yesterday, 11/10/2011

One of the hottest House bills, H.R. 3012, was introduced by a Congressman from Utah on the House side. Now, a Republican Senator from the same state of Utah, Mike Lee, introduced S.1857 to eliminate the per-country numerical limitation for employment-based immigrants and to increase the per-country numerical limitation for family-sponsored immigrants. This bill may be a companion bill of the H.R. 3012 on the Senate side, which apparently was introduced yesterday in anticipation of House passing H.R. 3012 and reaching of the bill in the Senate soon. The full text has yet to be made available. Please stay tuned to this website for the full text of the Senate version.

Please discuss in the advocacy section.

[imdeng]

There already are a few posts on immigration forums from people with 2008 PDs who left the country and did not anticipate that EB2I will move this fast. The demand destruction is real and not insignificant. I would imagine though that a good fraction of people who have left will attempt to either come back (for AOS) or change to CP. Although there will be a time lag for the process - so it would still benefit the PD movement.

[suninphx]

There already are a few posts on immigration forums from people with 2008 PDs who left the country and did not anticipate that EB2I will move this fast. The demand destruction is real and not insignificant. I would imagine though that a good fraction of people who have left will attempt to either come back (for AOS) or change to CP. Although there will be a time lag for the process - so it would still benefit the PD movement.

People will sure try everything....one point to consider is how many people will be able to get EVL in case it is asked ..specifically for CP

[geterdone]

Is this going to be put for vote by senate or is it going to a Committee and the entire process starts again? if you look here it seems like it is going to be considred by committee- http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s112-1857


From http://immigration-law.com/



Please discuss in the advocacy section.

[TeddyKoochu]

People will sure try everything....one point to consider is how many people will be able to get EVL in case it is asked ..specifically for CP

From the calculations perspective we had the 20% factor dropout from Perm to I485 which would take care of I140 denials primarily. Now there are 2 scenarios there is definitely demand destruction i.e. people who have gone back or got GC by other means only those who can get some kind of EVL or recent paystubs (Working with same employer in home country) can attempt CP. Also some people have multiple perms as Kanmani is calculating.
There is another category that of NIW, National Interest Waiver folks can file I140 straight away, in fact as pointed out by tonyromo the reason why the Jul 2007 inventory does not add up is due to high NIW. I will try to get some statistics on these. In 2008 perm was at a standstill so that could have motivated more people to go for NIW if they could not go for EB1. So the NIW numbers could be compensating the dropouts and we can probably agree on 20% as the overall dropout rate or loss factor.
Meanwhile I agree that the monthly I485 expected for Jul 2007 - Apr 2008 is closer to 2500. I am still working on those details, will let the group know sometime over the weekend. Porting also should be 3K by all accounts. Appreciate all your feedback.

[suninphx]

From the calculations perspective we had the 20% factor dropout from Perm to I485 which would take care of I140 denials primarily. Now there are 2 scenarios there is definitely demand destruction i.e. people who have gone back or got GC by other means only those who can get some kind of EVL or recent paystubs (Working with same employer in home country) can attempt CP. Also some people have multiple perms as Kanmani is calculating.
There is another category that of NIW, National Interest Waiver folks can file I140 straight away, in fact as pointed out by tonyromo the reason why the Jul 2007 inventory does not add up is due to high NIW. I will try to get some statistics on these. In 2008 perm was at a standstill so that could have motivated more people to go for NIW if they could not go for EB1. So the NIW numbers could be compensating the dropouts and we can probably agree on 20% as the overall dropout rate or loss factor.
Meanwhile I agree that the monthly I485 expected for Jul 2007 - Apr 2008 is closer to 2500. I am still working on those details, will let the group know sometime over the weekend. Porting also should be 3K by all accounts. Appreciate all your feedback.

How easy it is to get approval thorugh NIW? When I read the criteria sometime back it looked quite stringent. I have no knowledge on how NIW works.

[suninphx]

From the calculations perspective we had the 20% factor dropout from Perm to I485 which would take care of I140 denials primarily. Now there are 2 scenarios there is definitely demand destruction i.e. people who have gone back or got GC by other means only those who can get some kind of EVL or recent paystubs (Working with same employer in home country) can attempt CP. Also some people have multiple perms as Kanmani is calculating.
There is another category that of NIW, National Interest Waiver folks can file I140 straight away, in fact as pointed out by tonyromo the reason why the Jul 2007 inventory does not add up is due to high NIW. I will try to get some statistics on these. In 2008 perm was at a standstill so that could have motivated more people to go for NIW if they could not go for EB1. So the NIW numbers could be compensating the dropouts and we can probably agree on 20% as the overall dropout rate or loss factor.
Meanwhile I agree that the monthly I485 expected for Jul 2007 - Apr 2008 is closer to 2500. I am still working on those details, will let the group know sometime over the weekend. Porting also should be 3K by all accounts. Appreciate all your feedback.

When you say this it carries a lot of weight. Will wait for your analysis. Thanks T!

[soggadu]

any1 got receipt notices/finger print notices who applied after Nov 01 2011?

[asankaran]

Teddy, While I have lot of respect for you. I strongly disagree that monthly PERM count could be 2500. I believe going by what I see in trackitt, just around 200 cases filed between July to Nov 01 which could translate to around 1500 EB2 India cases. The total number of EB2 cases for 485 from July to December could be only around 3~4k. I am very eager to look at the parameters you consider when reporting PERM EB2 cases and also translation to 485. I would use factor of 1 as somewhere suggested by Veni.

Let's start getting bullish about the current state of affairs for EB2.

When you say this it carries a lot of weight. Will wait for your analysis. Thanks T!

[kd2008]

From the calculations perspective we had the 20% factor dropout from Perm to I485 which would take care of I140 denials primarily. Now there are 2 scenarios there is definitely demand destruction i.e. people who have gone back or got GC by other means only those who can get some kind of EVL or recent paystubs (Working with same employer in home country) can attempt CP. Also some people have multiple perms as Kanmani is calculating.
There is another category that of NIW, National Interest Waiver folks can file I140 straight away, in fact as pointed out by tonyromo the reason why the Jul 2007 inventory does not add up is due to high NIW. I will try to get some statistics on these. In 2008 perm was at a standstill so that could have motivated more people to go for NIW if they could not go for EB1. So the NIW numbers could be compensating the dropouts and we can probably agree on 20% as the overall dropout rate or loss factor.
Meanwhile I agree that the monthly I485 expected for Jul 2007 - Apr 2008 is closer to 2500. I am still working on those details, will let the group know sometime over the weekend. Porting also should be 3K by all accounts. Appreciate all your feedback.

Teddy,

Could you please let me know what do you think of the following?

EB2 IC I-485 demand = IC PERM approvals x 0.7 (for EB2) x 0.87 (I-140 approval rate) x 0.8 (catch all factor for duplicate PERMS, EB3-Eb2 upgrades etc) x 2.04 (no. of I-485 applications filed for I-140 approval)

This gives,

EB2 IC I-485 demand = 0.9939 x IC PERM approvals

I guess what everyone is saying is that the above factor might be even less than that - 0.67 instead of 0.8 for the catch all factor due to demand destruction etc.

So,

EB2 IC I-485 demand = 0.8323 x IC PERM approvals

[Pdmar08]

People will sure try everything....one point to consider is how many people will be able to get EVL in case it is asked ..specifically for CP

Q, can you please add EVL to the first post, i dont know what it means.

[Pdmar08]

qbf, i would also suggest to get it done without hurting any ones ego you are almost there. Stay under the radar, beg, borrow or steal(well as long as its postits) and get it done.

[chagas]

EVL = Employer Verification Letter

[Jonty Rhodes]

How easy it is to get approval thorugh NIW? When I read the criteria sometime back it looked quite stringent. I have no knowledge on how NIW works.

NIW is not as difficult as EB1 but it is still difficult to get through. I have many physician friends who work in underserved area. In fact, I am currently also working in an underserved area. Some of those friends have successfully obtained NIW. In fact, one of my colleague got her GC and she was in EB2 NIW category.

When I asked my lawyer to file for NIW, he advised me not to go that route because he told me that the criteria are more strict now, lot of RFEs are issued and denial rates are high. The applications are heavily scrutinized according to him.

He told me that NIW applications are compex, require lot of supporting documentations and I-140 approval can take anywhere from 6 months to 18 months under NIW since there is no premium processing available. Labor Certification is obviously waived but in terms of PD, candidates from EB2I and EB2C category do not get any benefit.

The benefits that NIW offer, which I think are huge, are:
1) You don't need an employer to sponsor your application
2) Since it is self-sponsored, jobs can be changed and you can still retain your PD provided you continue to serve in MUS (medically underserved) areas or HPSA (Health Professionals Shortage Areas) for total cumulative of 5 years. (Physicians only)

This is for physicians who usually make a bulk of NIW applications. But these days, that number is also going down compared to previous years because those applications are heavily scrutinized and denial rates are high according to my lawyer.

Now, obviously there is one Anesthesiologist whom I know who got NIW in Kansas City, MO by working in Veterans Affairs (VA) Hospital. If you are working at VA and has supporting letters from there, your chances of getting NIW approved are 99-100%. He had his I-140 approved in 4 months. Kansas City itself has a population of around 4,60,000 with urban area population 1.6 million and metro area population of 2.2 million. This is not an underserved area but than again he was working at VA.

I have another Psychiatrist physician friend who obtained NIW working 2 miles north of Chicago downtown (underserved?????) because that area was designated by Government (CMS - Combined Medicare and Medicaid Services) as medically underserved for psychiatric patient population.

My point is that these applications are tough, but there are legal and administrative loopholes which can work to an individual's benefit to get the approval.

Now, I don't know what are the NIW criteria for other occupations than physicians but anything related to NASA, Military, Government, Serving in minority dominant area (e.g. Native Americans in Appalachian region), National Institute of Health etc. would have higher NIW approval rates.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Could you please let me know what do you think of the following?

EB2 IC I-485 demand = IC PERM approvals x 0.7 (for EB2) x 0.87 (I-140 approval rate) x 0.8 (catch all factor for duplicate PERMS, EB3-Eb2 upgrades etc) x 2.04 (no. of I-485 applications filed for I-140 approval)

This gives,

EB2 IC I-485 demand = 0.9939 x IC PERM approvals

I guess what everyone is saying is that the above factor might be even less than that - 0.67 instead of 0.8 for the catch all factor due to demand destruction etc.

So,

EB2 IC I-485 demand = 0.8323 x IC PERM approvals

My factors may just be slightly different. We should all use different factors though based on our beliefs and convictions; however do let me know if any of my factors appear to be unrealistic I will correct them.
- Dependent factor I would use 2.25, More than 1 in 8 families have atleast 1 non US born child.
- .8 I would like to call the carry over factor this should include a) Demand Destruction b) I 140 denial c) New demand coming in via NIW for which there are no perms.
- EB2 - EB3 as .75 this is to account for invisible porting i.e. people post 2007 who are porting who may not ever have been inventoried.
This would make the multiplication factor 2.25 * .8 * .75 = 1.35.
The NIW usage cannot be neglected in Jul 2007 itself looks like 1000 485's may have originated from NIW as it does not require labor and people in 2008 are more likely to use it because perm was frozen. There maybe say 100 - 200 cases coming in every month due to NIW. Traditional porting we can assume at 3K (EB3 prior to Jul 2007).

[march272010]

Most of the Doctors apply both EB1 NIW & EB2 NIW parallelly for safe side as per lawyer advice. My friend applied for both and got both approved, this kind of small percentage of 140 should not be counted..this is just for your information

[cantwaitlonger]

any1 got receipt notices/finger print notices who applied after Nov 01 2011?

485/EAD/AP reached NSC on 1st Nov. Got receipts by mail on 10th. Online case status says FP notice will be sent within 30 days.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Most of the Doctors apply both EB1 NIW & EB2 NIW parallelly for safe side as per lawyer advice. My friend applied for both and got both approved, this kind of small percentage of 140 should not be counted..this is just for your information

Agree, that percentage is very small.

[march272010]

One big lawyer in east coast does this NIW for doctors, if they get the RFE for EB1 NIW, same documentation is submitted again and gets approved. this is not just one case saw few like this :-)

[imdeng]

Teddy - do we have any reliable way to calculate demand density? The 485 inventory can shed some light but that is not due for some months. 2500 EB2IC demand density is the steady state since that will result in one year movement every year considering a 30K SOFAD.



...
Meanwhile I agree that the monthly I485 expected for Jul 2007 - Apr 2008 is closer to 2500. I am still working on those details, will let the group know sometime over the weekend.
...

[suninphx]

NIW is not as difficult as EB1 but it is still difficult to get through. I have many physician friends who work in underserved area. In fact, I am currently also working in an underserved area. Some of those friends have successfully obtained NIW. In fact, one of my colleague got her GC and she was in EB2 NIW category.

When I asked my lawyer to file for NIW, he advised me not to go that route because he told me that the criteria are more strict now, lot of RFEs are issued and denial rates are high. The applications are heavily scrutinized according to him.

He told me that NIW applications are compex, require lot of supporting documentations and I-140 approval can take anywhere from 6 months to 18 months under NIW since there is no premium processing available. Labor Certification is obviously waived but in terms of PD, candidates from EB2I and EB2C category do not get any benefit.

The benefits that NIW offer, which I think are huge, are:
1) You don't need an employer to sponsor your application
2) Since it is self-sponsored, jobs can be changed and you can still retain your PD provided you continue to serve in MUS (medically underserved) areas or HPSA (Health Professionals Shortage Areas) for total cumulative of 5 years. (Physicians only)

This is for physicians who usually make a bulk of NIW applications. But these days, that number is also going down compared to previous years because those applications are heavily scrutinized and denial rates are high according to my lawyer.

Now, obviously there is one Anesthesiologist whom I know who got NIW in Kansas City, MO by working in Veterans Affairs (VA) Hospital. If you are working at VA and has supporting letters from there, your chances of getting NIW approved are 99-100%. He had his I-140 approved in 4 months. Kansas City itself has a population of around 4,60,000 with urban area population 1.6 million and metro area population of 2.2 million. This is not an underserved area but than again he was working at VA.

I have another Psychiatrist physician friend who obtained NIW working 2 miles north of Chicago downtown (underserved?????) because that area was designated by Government (CMS - Combined Medicare and Medicaid Services) as medically underserved for psychiatric patient population.

My point is that these applications are tough, but there are legal and administrative loopholes which can work to an individual's benefit to get the approval.

Now, I don't know what are the NIW criteria for other occupations than physicians but anything related to NASA, Military, Government, Serving in minority dominant area (e.g. Native Americans in Appalachian region), National Institute of Health etc. would have higher NIW approval rates.

Thank you for such a detailed information!!

[evoori]

485/EAD/AP reached NSC on 1st Nov. Got receipts by mail on 9th. Online case status says FP notice will be sent within 30 days. Some of my friends are still waiting for receipt even though we couriered our application together and was received at the same time at dallas lockbox..

any1 got receipt notices/finger print notices who applied after Nov 01 2011?

[Jonty Rhodes]

One big lawyer in east coast does this NIW for doctors, if they get the RFE for EB1 NIW, same documentation is submitted again and gets approved. this is not just one case saw few like this :-)

I believe you are talking about Stephen Jefferies & Associates......am I right?

[TeddyKoochu]

One big lawyer in east coast does this NIW for doctors, if they get the RFE for EB1 NIW, same documentation is submitted again and gets approved. this is not just one case saw few like this :-)

There is no good way to find out absolute NIW numbers. However if we do a unfiltered query for EB2 NIW and EB2 the ratio is ~ 5%. So NIW maybe accounting for probably 1500 EB2 approvals in the year. This number is small not negligible though. Most doctors and specialists file for both EB1 and EB2 - NIW but there is another group which has 10 + years other waiver fields who would not qualify for EB1 they would be more likely to go to NIW at times especially in 2008 when labor process was frozen. Imagine 1000 NIW cases were filed just in Jul 2007 that’s an anomaly though, this month’s inventory simply does not add up otherwise.
If you like this representation maybe porting + NIW can be assumed to be equal to 3K + 1.5K lets approximate to 4K per year to be fair.

[wantgcnow]

Guys , any idea till when was the latest NVC receipts sent out? last I know they have sent out until june 2008...

[arikepudi]

May be a dumb question.

My priority date is 19th Dec 2007. Planning to apply ASAP in Dec.

What is the process once you apply for I485. I am seeing Soggadu is asking for FP. After that what ?

When can we expect EAD? When can we expect GC if dates dont retrogress?

[vizcard]

May be a dumb question.

My priority date is 19th Dec 2007. Planning to apply ASAP in Dec.

What is the process once you apply for I485. I am seeing Soggadu is asking for FP. After that what ?

When can we expect EAD? When can we expect GC if dates dont retrogress?

You can checking latest processing times on the USCIS website.

[tackle]

May be a dumb question.

My priority date is 19th Dec 2007. Planning to apply ASAP in Dec.

What is the process once you apply for I485. I am seeing Soggadu is asking for FP. After that what ?

When can we expect EAD? When can we expect GC if dates dont retrogress?

See https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/Dashboard/CaseStatus/BucketDescriptions.do

[Jonty Rhodes]

Some More Information on NIW Petitions and Current Trend

I found this information regarding NIW. Obviously, this comes from a Law Firm so take it with a grain of salt. But in general, the information is pretty accurate and with this bad economy, NIWs have been scrutinized heavily. Criteria have been made more stringent just like for EB1 candidates in Post-Kazarian era.

I am posting few links which throw more light on these petitions.

http://www.hooyou.com/niw/News&Articles/recentdevelopment05112010.html

http://www.hooyou.com/niw/niw_requirements.html

http://www.hooyou.com/niw/attorney_fee.html

http://www.hooyou.com/niw/news.htm

You can find lots of other information on their website regarding NIW since they claim to specialize in NIW petition. This law firm is considered good and responsive but not the best to file NIW petitions. So decide for yourself.

[druvraj]

From the calculations perspective we had the 20% factor dropout from Perm to I485 which would take care of I140 denials primarily. Now there are 2 scenarios there is definitely demand destruction i.e. people who have gone back or got GC by other means only those who can get some kind of EVL or recent paystubs (Working with same employer in home country) can attempt CP. Also some people have multiple perms as Kanmani is calculating.
There is another category that of NIW, National Interest Waiver folks can file I140 straight away, in fact as pointed out by tonyromo the reason why the Jul 2007 inventory does not add up is due to high NIW. I will try to get some statistics on these. In 2008 perm was at a standstill so that could have motivated more people to go for NIW if they could not go for EB1. So the NIW numbers could be compensating the dropouts and we can probably agree on 20% as the overall dropout rate or loss factor.
Meanwhile I agree that the monthly I485 expected for Jul 2007 - Apr 2008 is closer to 2500. I am still working on those details, will let the group know sometime over the weekend. Porting also should be 3K by all accounts. Appreciate all your feedback.

Teddy,

Will always be waiting for your analysis. I (like you) like to be more on the conservative side. After I am able to file for my 485 I feel like for actual GC, I might have to wait till Oct2012 which is fine by me. Q and other Gurus please when ever you have sufficient data and time update us with your actual GC assurance predictions. My PD btw is feb 08.

[ontheedge]

Teddy, While I have lot of respect for you. I strongly disagree that monthly PERM count could be 2500. I believe going by what I see in trackitt, just around 200 cases filed between July to Nov 01 which could translate to around 1500 EB2 India cases. The total number of EB2 cases for 485 from July to December could be only around 3~4k. I am very eager to look at the parameters you consider when reporting PERM EB2 cases and also translation to 485. I would use factor of 1 as somewhere suggested by Veni.

Let's start getting bullish about the current state of affairs for EB2.

Amen to that. Teddy has always erred on the side of caution, which is really important keeping in mind how the state of affairs have been. But I do feel that it is time to be a tad more optimistic :)

[tonyromo]

Following Data may help. I used Spec's table to get PERM related data and used jan 5, 2011 inventory to cacluate PERM to I-485 ratio. Surprisingly for 4 out of 6 months ratio is around 1.

Personally I think kd2008's 0.83 is too optimistic while Teddy's 1.35 is too conservative. I would go with 1.1-1.2. Following are some of the reasons of my belief:

- Sudden raise to EB2 NIW in July 2007 can be explained by dates being current. People just apply for I-140 & I-485 together and take chance.
- If we think backlog in PERM might have caused people to apply for NIW, same reasoning apply that people might have jumped because of wait and PERM labor though approved has no meaning.
- There will be demand destruction because of recession and people not having EAD. But I think this will be cancelled out by more and more people applying for EB2 category.
- So all in all this ratio of PERM to I-485 will remain around 1.

PERM-PWMB--Total-PERM--EFF-PERM---EB2-I---EB2-C---EB2-IC---Ratio (EB2IC/EFF-PERM)
Jan---74---------2645--------2571-------1540----654-----2194-----0.85336445
Feb---114--------2273--------2159-------1444----615-----2059-----0.95368226
Mar---150--------2167--------2017-------1404----682-----2086-----1.034209222
Apr---310--------2414--------2104-------1420----609-----2029-----0.964353612
May---698--------2369--------1671-------1070----519-----1589-----0.950927588
Jun---1107-------2623--------1516-------1272----558-----1830-----1.207124011


My factors may just be slightly different. We should all use different factors though based on our beliefs and convictions; however do let me know if any of my factors appear to be unrealistic I will correct them.
- Dependent factor I would use 2.25, More than 1 in 8 families have atleast 1 non US born child.
- .8 I would like to call the carry over factor this should include a) Demand Destruction b) I 140 denial c) New demand coming in via NIW for which there are no perms.
- EB2 - EB3 as .75 this is to account for invisible porting i.e. people post 2007 who are porting who may not ever have been inventoried.
This would make the multiplication factor 2.25 * .8 * .75 = 1.35.
The NIW usage cannot be neglected in Jul 2007 itself looks like 1000 485's may have originated from NIW as it does not require labor and people in 2008 are more likely to use it because perm was frozen. There maybe say 100 - 200 cases coming in every month due to NIW. Traditional porting we can assume at 3K (EB3 prior to Jul 2007).

[march272010]

Yes Sir thats correct

[TeddyKoochu]

Following Data may help. I used Spec's table to get PERM related data and used jan 5, 2011 inventory to cacluate PERM to I-485 ratio. Surprisingly for 4 out of 6 months ratio is around 1.

Personally I think kd2008's 0.83 is too optimistic while Teddy's 1.35 is too conservative. I would go with 1.1-1.2. Following are some of the reasons of my belief:

- Sudden raise to EB2 NIW in July 2007 can be explained by dates being current. People just apply for I-140 & I-485 together and take chance.
- If we think backlog in PERM might have caused people to apply for NIW, same reasoning apply that people might have jumped because of wait and PERM labor though approved has no meaning.
- There will be demand destruction because of recession and people not having EAD. But I think this will be cancelled out by more and more people applying for EB2 category.
- So all in all this ratio of PERM to I-485 will remain around 1.

PERM-PWMB--Total-PERM--EFF-PERM---EB2-I---EB2-C---EB2-IC---Ratio (EB2IC/EFF-PERM)
Jan---74---------2645--------2571-------1540----654-----2194-----0.85336445
Feb---114--------2273--------2159-------1444----615-----2059-----0.95368226
Mar---150--------2167--------2017-------1404----682-----2086-----1.034209222
Apr---310--------2414--------2104-------1420----609-----2029-----0.964353612
May---698--------2369--------1671-------1070----519-----1589-----0.950927588
Jun---1107-------2623--------1516-------1272----558-----1830-----1.207124011

Tony thanks for your analysis. This in fact is the reality, if the real data extrapolates to 1 then that is actually the ratio.
It would implicitly account for everything except for porting.

Going a small step further the there are ~ 28K perms in 2007. This give ~ 2300 per month, adding 200 per month for porting etc will make the figure 2500 per month look very realistic. Note that 2008 earlier months have higher perms especially Jan.
Now let’s try to see the consumption. 8.5K of demand data has disappeared thus far.
The dates have moved from Jul 15th to Mar 15 i.e. 8 months so this makes it ~ 20K.
So probably CO is still short of the 30K mark. This could mean that movement is still possible in the next bulletin assuming he needs to have a small buffer of say 5K. Dates going to June to match the NVC receipts maybe a possibility if CO wants to have a buffer.

[kd2008]

Following Data may help. I used Spec's table to get PERM related data and used jan 5, 2011 inventory to cacluate PERM to I-485 ratio. Surprisingly for 4 out of 6 months ratio is around 1.

Personally I think kd2008's 0.83 is too optimistic while Teddy's 1.35 is too conservative. I would go with 1.1-1.2. Following are some of the reasons of my belief:

- Sudden raise to EB2 NIW in July 2007 can be explained by dates being current. People just apply for I-140 & I-485 together and take chance.
- If we think backlog in PERM might have caused people to apply for NIW, same reasoning apply that people might have jumped because of wait and PERM labor though approved has no meaning.
- There will be demand destruction because of recession and people not having EAD. But I think this will be cancelled out by more and more people applying for EB2 category.
- So all in all this ratio of PERM to I-485 will remain around 1.

PERM-PWMB--Total-PERM--EFF-PERM---EB2-I---EB2-C---EB2-IC---Ratio (EB2IC/EFF-PERM)
Jan---74---------2645--------2571-------1540----654-----2194-----0.85336445
Feb---114--------2273--------2159-------1444----615-----2059-----0.95368226
Mar---150--------2167--------2017-------1404----682-----2086-----1.034209222
Apr---310--------2414--------2104-------1420----609-----2029-----0.964353612
May---698--------2369--------1671-------1070----519-----1589-----0.950927588
Jun---1107-------2623--------1516-------1272----558-----1830-----1.207124011

Tony, based on the evidence presented by you, I would agree with you and say that my ratio is optimistic. The reason I was going for a ratio less than one is that in the last four years their has not been the support of EAD which was there for pre-July2007 filers, the recession and people going back & that wasn't the case in pre-July2007, people filing multiple PERMS due to job changes without an EAD.

More people filing in EB2 is already accounted in the higher ratio of EB2:EB3 and should not be used to compensate for demand destruction.

In spite of these factors, I agree with you and say, the ratio to be taken is 1.0

[krishnav]

any1 got receipt notices/finger print notices who applied after Nov 01 2011?

Hi Soggadu,

I received my receipt yes'day. Application recieved - Nov 1st, Notice date - Nov 4th.
I am still waiting for Biometrics notice. Hopefully I will have it in my mailbox today (or soon).

[suninphx]

Tony thanks for your analysis. This in fact is the reality, if the real data extrapolates to 1 then that is actually the ratio.
It would implicitly account for everything except for porting.

Going a small step further the there are ~ 28K perms in 2007. This give ~ 2300 per month, adding 200 per month for porting etc will make the figure 2500 per month look very realistic. Note that 2008 earlier months have higher perms especially Jan.
Now let’s try to see the consumption. 8.5K of demand data has disappeared thus far.
The dates have moved from Jul 15th to Mar 15 i.e. 8 months so this makes it ~ 20K.
So probably CO is still short of the 30K mark. This could mean that movement is still possible in the next bulletin assuming he needs to have a small buffer of say 5K. Dates going to June to match the NVC receipts maybe a possibility if CO wants to have a buffer.

And this means we are looking at actual GC issue dates around Mar 2008 by end of FY2012?

[TeddyKoochu]

And this means we are looking for actual GC issue dates around Mar 2008 by end of FY2012?

Yes absolutely if we see 30K SOFAD then it is entirely possible. On Trackitt I see very few EB2 ROW approvals especially, maybe we need more observation time. The only thing that can cause any decline to SOFAD is the the I140 backlog (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1) right now its 10K above last years levels, if any special attempts are made to reduce / clean it out. I believe that there is a 50-50 chance that even the next bulletin will see forward movement for EB2 I/C assuming that the 30K mark has been barely reached.

[suninphx]

Yes absolutely if we see 30K SOFAD then it is entirely possible. On Trackitt I see very few EB2 ROW approvals especially, maybe we need more observation time. The only thing that can cause any decline to SOFAD is the the I140 backlog (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1) right now its 10K above last years levels, if any special attempts are made to reduce / clean it out. I believe that there is a 50-50 chance that even the next bulletin will see forward movement for EB2 I/C assuming that the 30K mark has been barely reached.

And is there any way to figure out how many of those are EB2/3 IC? ( I assume it includes both Eb2/EB3?)

[wantgcnow]

Yes absolutely if we see 30K SOFAD then it is entirely possible. On Trackitt I see very few EB2 ROW approvals especially, maybe we need more observation time. The only thing that can cause any decline to SOFAD is the the I140 backlog (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1) right now its 10K above last years levels, if any special attempts are made to reduce / clean it out. I believe that there is a 50-50 chance that even the next bulletin will see forward movement for EB2 I/C assuming that the 30K mark has been barely reached.

Teddy, how much forward movement you are expecting to see if 30K has not been reached?

[TeddyKoochu]

And is there any way to figure out how many of those are EB2/3 IC? ( I assume it includes both Eb2/EB3?)

The dashboard does not give that kind of visibility, you can assume even spread. But if the overall figure is higher then proportionately the figures maybe higher. Also probably since EB1 cases are taking longer there maybe higher proportion for these. Other that the I140 backlog there is nothing that should cause any significant SOFAD decline. On another note that is why it is easier to approve EB2 I/C cases because the I140 is already approved. A very key indicator will be when we start to see PWMB case approvals filed last month.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, how much forward movement you are expecting to see if 30K has not been reached?

This is entirely speculative, however I would hope that atleast 5K is the buffer this is assuming that we really see 30K SOFAD; this would mean 2 more months of movement. Let’s wait to see the demand data in a few days this will help to solidify some of the theory to reality. If there are approvals in between that is cases that never make it to the demand data we will have to find some way to adjust.

[suninphx]

This is entirely speculative, however I would hope that atleast 5K is the buffer this is assuming that we really see 30K SOFAD; this would mean 2 more months of movement. Let’s wait to see the demand data in a few days this will help to solidify some of the theory to reality. If there are approvals in between that is cases that never make it to the demand data we will have to find some way to adjust.

Based on Spec's PERM spreadsheet there are around 35-36 K PERMs from Apr 15 2007 - Jul 01 2008. So if historical multiple of '1' holds good and assuming they want build a pipeline of 35 K then this seems posible.

[gchopeful123]

Soggadu Bhai,
My lawyer had sent docs to USCIS on 10/31. No receipt notices yet. When did you file yours?




any1 got receipt notices/finger print notices who applied after Nov 01 2011?

[GreenReddy]

Hi Guys,

I am trying to fill the G-325A form but there is no enough Space For Last and Middle Name.

Can Guru's help me on how to fill this out???

[Pdmar08]

EVL = Employer Verification Letter

Thanks!(lengthening reply because system said needs to be more than 10 characters)

[nishant2200]

Hi Guys,

I am trying to fill the G-325A form but there is no enough Space For Last and Middle Name.

Can Guru's help me on how to fill this out???

Can you handwrite it? print out with what you can fill in for other boxes, and then handwrite this part for the boxes in which your name does not fit

Else another idea, but this one should be confirmed with lawyer if it's legal to do and how to do it, you can indicate something like see attached, and in separate attached paper write down more properly. I would personally go with handwriting in block letters. Unless even that don't work because the name is ridiculously long, in which case I dont see any option other than indicating somehow to see another added attachment. But again, this is a very serious paper, and I would do this separate paper thing only if a proper lawyer says so.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Nishant usually posts these but today I am posting this.

Found it on CM's US Non-Immigrant Blogspot

This is what CM had to say for the December Visa Bulletin and EB2IC movement.

EB2-India & China Movement

Dates for EB2-IC has crossed into cut-off date of March 2008. It is impressive to see that Mr. Oppenheim is taking different approach this year and we should applaud him for his efforts. Since Mr. Oppenheim is taking different course for FY 2012, we believe that we should also keep our dogmatic approach to number crunching away for sometime until it make sense to do so. We should try to speculate what can happen in next few bulletins and successive months from their until summer 2012. We may be 'out to lunch' with this approach but can very well veer back to number crunching if this does not make sense in next few bulletins.

We believe retrogression is imminent in summer 2012; only exception will be HR 3012 if it will become a law by that time. We know that current movement upto March 2008 from 15 April 2007(Sep VB date) would easily bring demand that could end up using around 28K-30K visas from 140,000 available EB category visas. These are definitely in par with what we would usually see year-to-year with EB2-IC spillover + 5600 annual limits.

Question is so what can we expect from Mr. Oppenheim hereon? Firstly, we can say he has no clue that what real demand is due to such movement and lets presume he might not get hold off this until next two months ( that too only if he decides to persuade USCIS to tell him the numbers based on receipts issued).In reality, he may have to wait for real count on demand until April-May 2012 when such cases will start to become documentarily qualified and USCIS will start requesting for visa numbers.

That said, Mr. Oppenheim may not still be done with intaking more applications for this fiscal year. First, based on past year trend on visa use, monthly demand and estimations, EB2-IC had always moved around 11 months each year. By moving dates upto March 2008, he had just covered those bases. But still he does not know what would happen with HR 3012, whether it will pass with effective date of 01 September 2011. We know from our estimation on this bill, that cut-off dates until PD June 2008 would easily be current if this bill is passed. With approximation on fall-outs due to unforeseen reason, we can expect PD July-August 2008 to be current. If Mr. Oppenheim will stop such movement from next visa bulletin, he may miss that window on keeping cases ready for adjudication in case HR 3012 will become a law as he mentioned in previous bulletin that it can take 4-6 months to get these cases adjudicated. As I mentioned ,this is a speculation and I may be out to lunch but we believe in coming bulletin(s), EB2-IC dates may move all the way from June 2008-August 2008. Once, DOS will have enough applications in hand, it will be pretty straight forward for DOS to retrogress EB2-IC or EB2-ROW in summer 2012, whatever is appropriate based on fate of the bill.

Now who can expect Green Card for FY 2012? and how will dates retrogress? One thing to keep in mind with USCIS is that they will approve cases randomly usually based on month of filings, regardless of Priority Date. Now since most of the July 2007 backlog is cleared, I believe in 4 to 6 months when such cases will start becoming documentarily qualified, we will start to see approvals. Usually in such case, application filed at NSC will have upper hand compared to TSC filings due to vast difference in processing times. Generally during these months of the year, TSC will only approve 6000-8000 cases and NSC will approve around 10,000 cases consistently. So please do not be surprised if NSC case that become current in December bulletin will see approval before November bulletin cases. This is very common with USCIS. Approvals will be random. File your cases as perfect as possible so that you do not receive RFEs. In general, FY 2012 for EB2-IC will be exceptional with respect to approvals, with dates all over from August 2007 PD to March 2008 PD getting randomly approved. Once DOS will feel that enough visa numbers are used for EB2-IC based on EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, at that time dates may retrogress upto PD 01 Sep 07- 01 Nov 07. This is when we will start to see some huge numbers in demand data and we can go back to our number crunching and predictions based on calculations. For some time we believe VB movement and approvals at USCIS will be random.


This is the link for entire article.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/11/visa-bulletin-december-2011.html

[gcq]

Hi Guys,

I am trying to fill the G-325A form but there is no enough Space For Last and Middle Name.

Can Guru's help me on how to fill this out???
Here is an indirect way:
Scan the form as an Image. Then using a free image editor like Gimp (http://www.gimp.org/) or photoshop, type in the text. You can adjust the font to make the words fit in the form. As it is typed in, reading it will never be an issue.

[nishant2200]

thank you Dr. Jonty.

I in fact am not too much opposed to what CM is thinking. It is a plausible theory what he is saying.

There is another bill introduced in senate similar to HR3012, the S.1857, which looks like they have done so as to hasten up the process, so that in parallel Senate can also start thinking about this law change. It seems like then if House passes, then HR 3012 and S.1857 would be need to mixed and tweaked and again agreed upon by both house and senate. I am not expert in this, but common sense says, something is afoot, at least there is a lot of trying going on. Lets hope for the best.


Nishant usually posts these but today I am posting this.

Found it on CM's US Non-Immigrant Blogspot

This is what CM had to say for the December Visa Bulletin and EB2IC movement.

EB2-India & China Movement

Dates for EB2-IC has crossed into cut-off date of March 2008. It is impressive to see that Mr. Oppenheim is taking different approach this year and we should applaud him for his efforts. Since Mr. Oppenheim is taking different course for FY 2012, we believe that we should also keep our dogmatic approach to number crunching away for sometime until it make sense to do so. We should try to speculate what can happen in next few bulletins and successive months from their until summer 2012. We may be 'out to lunch' with this approach but can very well veer back to number crunching if this does not make sense in next few bulletins.

We believe retrogression is imminent in summer 2012; only exception will be HR 3012 if it will become a law by that time. We know that current movement upto March 2008 from 15 April 2007(Sep VB date) would easily bring demand that could end up using around 28K-30K visas from 140,000 available EB category visas. These are definitely in par with what we would usually see year-to-year with EB2-IC spillover + 5600 annual limits.

Question is so what can we expect from Mr. Oppenheim hereon? Firstly, we can say he has no clue that what real demand is due to such movement and lets presume he might not get hold off this until next two months ( that too only if he decides to persuade USCIS to tell him the numbers based on receipts issued).In reality, he may have to wait for real count on demand until April-May 2012 when such cases will start to become documentarily qualified and USCIS will start requesting for visa numbers.

That said, Mr. Oppenheim may not still be done with intaking more applications for this fiscal year. First, based on past year trend on visa use, monthly demand and estimations, EB2-IC had always moved around 11 months each year. By moving dates upto March 2008, he had just covered those bases. But still he does not know what would happen with HR 3012, whether it will pass with effective date of 01 September 2011. We know from our estimation on this bill, that cut-off dates until PD June 2008 would easily be current if this bill is passed. With approximation on fall-outs due to unforeseen reason, we can expect PD July-August 2008 to be current. If Mr. Oppenheim will stop such movement from next visa bulletin, he may miss that window on keeping cases ready for adjudication in case HR 3012 will become a law as he mentioned in previous bulletin that it can take 4-6 months to get these cases adjudicated. As I mentioned ,this is a speculation and I may be out to lunch but we believe in coming bulletin(s), EB2-IC dates may move all the way from June 2008-August 2008. Once, DOS will have enough applications in hand, it will be pretty straight forward for DOS to retrogress EB2-IC or EB2-ROW in summer 2012, whatever is appropriate based on fate of the bill.

Now who can expect Green Card for FY 2012? and how will dates retrogress? One thing to keep in mind with USCIS is that they will approve cases randomly usually based on month of filings, regardless of Priority Date. Now since most of the July 2007 backlog is cleared, I believe in 4 to 6 months when such cases will start becoming documentarily qualified, we will start to see approvals. Usually in such case, application filed at NSC will have upper hand compared to TSC filings due to vast difference in processing times. Generally during these months of the year, TSC will only approve 6000-8000 cases and NSC will approve around 10,000 cases consistently. So please do not be surprised if NSC case that become current in December bulletin will see approval before November bulletin cases. This is very common with USCIS. Approvals will be random. File your cases as perfect as possible so that you do not receive RFEs. In general, FY 2012 for EB2-IC will be exceptional with respect to approvals, with dates all over from August 2007 PD to March 2008 PD getting randomly approved. Once DOS will feel that enough visa numbers are used for EB2-IC based on EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, at that time dates may retrogress upto PD 01 Sep 07- 01 Nov 07. This is when we will start to see some huge numbers in demand data and we can go back to our number crunching and predictions based on calculations. For some time we believe VB movement and approvals at USCIS will be random.


This is the link for entire article.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/11/visa-bulletin-december-2011.html

[suninphx]

Nishant usually posts these but today I am posting this.

Found it on CM's US Non-Immigrant Blogspot

This is what CM had to say for the December Visa Bulletin and EB2IC movement.

EB2-India & China Movement

Dates for EB2-IC has crossed into cut-off date of March 2008. It is impressive to see that Mr. Oppenheim is taking different approach this year and we should applaud him for his efforts. Since Mr. Oppenheim is taking different course for FY 2012, we believe that we should also keep our dogmatic approach to number crunching away for sometime until it make sense to do so. We should try to speculate what can happen in next few bulletins and successive months from their until summer 2012. We may be 'out to lunch' with this approach but can very well veer back to number crunching if this does not make sense in next few bulletins.

We believe retrogression is imminent in summer 2012; only exception will be HR 3012 if it will become a law by that time. We know that current movement upto March 2008 from 15 April 2007(Sep VB date) would easily bring demand that could end up using around 28K-30K visas from 140,000 available EB category visas. These are definitely in par with what we would usually see year-to-year with EB2-IC spillover + 5600 annual limits.

Question is so what can we expect from Mr. Oppenheim hereon? Firstly, we can say he has no clue that what real demand is due to such movement and lets presume he might not get hold off this until next two months ( that too only if he decides to persuade USCIS to tell him the numbers based on receipts issued).In reality, he may have to wait for real count on demand until April-May 2012 when such cases will start to become documentarily qualified and USCIS will start requesting for visa numbers.

That said, Mr. Oppenheim may not still be done with intaking more applications for this fiscal year. First, based on past year trend on visa use, monthly demand and estimations, EB2-IC had always moved around 11 months each year. By moving dates upto March 2008, he had just covered those bases. But still he does not know what would happen with HR 3012, whether it will pass with effective date of 01 September 2011. We know from our estimation on this bill, that cut-off dates until PD June 2008 would easily be current if this bill is passed. With approximation on fall-outs due to unforeseen reason, we can expect PD July-August 2008 to be current. If Mr. Oppenheim will stop such movement from next visa bulletin, he may miss that window on keeping cases ready for adjudication in case HR 3012 will become a law as he mentioned in previous bulletin that it can take 4-6 months to get these cases adjudicated. As I mentioned ,this is a speculation and I may be out to lunch but we believe in coming bulletin(s), EB2-IC dates may move all the way from June 2008-August 2008. Once, DOS will have enough applications in hand, it will be pretty straight forward for DOS to retrogress EB2-IC or EB2-ROW in summer 2012, whatever is appropriate based on fate of the bill.

Now who can expect Green Card for FY 2012? and how will dates retrogress? One thing to keep in mind with USCIS is that they will approve cases randomly usually based on month of filings, regardless of Priority Date. Now since most of the July 2007 backlog is cleared, I believe in 4 to 6 months when such cases will start becoming documentarily qualified, we will start to see approvals. Usually in such case, application filed at NSC will have upper hand compared to TSC filings due to vast difference in processing times. Generally during these months of the year, TSC will only approve 6000-8000 cases and NSC will approve around 10,000 cases consistently. So please do not be surprised if NSC case that become current in December bulletin will see approval before November bulletin cases. This is very common with USCIS. Approvals will be random. File your cases as perfect as possible so that you do not receive RFEs. In general, FY 2012 for EB2-IC will be exceptional with respect to approvals, with dates all over from August 2007 PD to March 2008 PD getting randomly approved. Once DOS will feel that enough visa numbers are used for EB2-IC based on EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, at that time dates may retrogress upto PD 01 Sep 07- 01 Nov 07. This is when we will start to see some huge numbers in demand data and we can go back to our number crunching and predictions based on calculations. For some time we believe VB movement and approvals at USCIS will be random.


This is the link for entire article.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/11/visa-bulletin-december-2011.html

Good article ..except retrogession part..which I dont agree with at this point in time

[gclimbo08]

Similar issue, but with my last address outside U.S. My lawyer had mentioned 'Please refer to addendum' in the G-325A form and attached an addendum with just this info.


Hi Guys,

I am trying to fill the G-325A form but there is no enough Space For Last and Middle Name.

Can Guru's help me on how to fill this out???

[suninphx]

thank you Dr. Jonty.

I in fact am not too much opposed to what CM is thinking. It is a plausible theory what he is saying.

There is another bill introduced in senate similar to HR3012, the S.1857, which looks like they have done so as to hasten up the process, so that in parallel Senate can also start thinking about this law change. It seems like then if House passes, then HR 3012 and S.1857 would be need to mixed and tweaked and again agreed upon by both house and senate. I am not expert in this, but common sense says, something is afoot, at least there is a lot of trying going on. Lets hope for the best.

Please check advocacy thread

[mygctracker]

Gurus,

I'm current from Dec 1st and currently in the process of filling Forms. I don't have copy of my approved I-140 (employer doesn't share). Now while filling I-485 et all forms, can the A# Box be left as BLANK? Any problems if left BLANK?

Thanks.

[veni001]

Gurus,

I'm current from Dec 1st and currently in the process of filling Forms. I don't have copy of my approved I-140 (employer doesn't share). Now while filling I-485 et all forms, can the A# Box be left as BLANK? Any problems if left BLANK?

Thanks.

Yes you could, as long as your employer include copy of approved i-140 in the packet before sending to USCIS.

[mygctracker]

Thanks Veni bhai...:-) It is my understanding that my employer would include copy of approved I-140 in the packet.


Yes you could, as long as your employer include copy of approved i-140 in the packet before sending to USCIS.

[RMS_V13]

Neither me.

I bet we will see the dates move to Sept 2008 for sure. This is not based on numbers, but purely based on past figures. May not get the GC, but will file for I 485.



Good article ..except retrogession part..which I dont agree with at this point in time

[mygctracker]

I-485 Filing Instruction PDF says:

"If Extra space is needed to complete any item, attach a continuation sheet,indicate the item number,and date and sign each sheet"

http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf



Hi Guys,

I am trying to fill the G-325A form but there is no enough Space For Last and Middle Name.

Can Guru's help me on how to fill this out???

[vizcard]

Neither me.

I bet we will see the dates move to Sept 2008 for sure. This is not based on numbers, but purely based on past figures. May not get the GC, but will file for I 485.

Interesting comment. I'm curious as to how u differentiate between "numbers" and "past figures". I'd love for the dates to mov to sept but I don't see it happening.

[nishant2200]

Now that we are fine with 2.5k density as max, and 3k porting as max, and also the idea that CO wants 30k + buffer, we can redo the numbers done earlier.

Oct VB, 15th april to 15th july 2007 caused 5400 reduction in demand data, 2.5k still left as preadjudicated ready to go.

Nov VB, 15th july 2007 to Nov 1st : 8.5k incoming, includes 2.5k PWMB

I am adding 1000 more who were leftovers in late 2006 and early-mid 2007, who were not in demand data for Oct VB, due to various reasons like RFE or just slipped through the cracks, or did not show up in demand data, etc.

Also he started the year with around 8k ready to go, and he was comfortable consuming it with QSP. So let's assume he would be ready to have 5k buffer at least to begin the next FY 2013.

Total so far: 5400 + 2500 + 1000 + 8500= 17,400 let’s consider 17.5k

Going by past two years trend, CO would want 30k minimum, even not considering buffer. Lets consider 5k buffer as optional. This is now confirmed looking at aggressive movement.

To grab hence:
14.5k with 5k buffer considered and 3k porting

Considering 2.5k max density, he needs further movement of 5.8 months i.e. 6 months

Now this is until the November VB. In Nov VB he already moved 4.5 months. The demand data can be ignored, it's negligible. Hence, for 30k + 5k buffer, he needs to move 1.5 months more, that will take him to 1st May 2008.

If we consider the simplistic assumption of demand = number of PERMs, the postulate that was being talked about on forum some pages back, I added the number of PERMs for EB2-EB3 India China from August 2007 to June 2008, and the average was 2466. But this includes EB3 also. If we say 75% of it is EB2, then 1850 EB2 PERMs. Even if you add a random 200 NIW, its around 2k density. With this simplification, the density goes way lower, and hence you can imagine the dates would extend much further from 1st May 2008, going well into the period for which NVC fee notices were sent, which was June 2008 latest what we know of.

The real density may lie somewhere in between the assumption of demand equals number of PERMS and the 2.5k.


REPOST with correction.

ok, let's take analysis of Teddy on the numbers mixed with bit of mine, to do worst case analysis.

Oct VB, 15th april to 15th july 2007 caused 5400 reduction in demand data, 2.5k still left as preadjudicated ready to go.

Nov VB, 15th july 2007 to Nov 1st : 10k incoming, includes 2.5k PWMB

I am adding 1000 more who were leftovers in late 2006 and early-mid 2007, who were not in demand data for Oct VB, due to various reasons like RFE or just slipped through the cracks, etc.

Also he started the year with around 8k ready to go, and he was comfortable consuming it with QSP. So let's assume he would be ready to have 5k buffer at least to begin the next FY 2013.

Total so far: 5400 + 2500 + 1000 + 10000 = 18,900 let’s consider 19k

Going by past two years trend, CO would want 30k minimum, even not considering buffer. Lets consider 5k buffer as optional.

To grab hence:
1. 11k with no buffer considered and no porting
2. 8k with no buffer considered and 3k porting
3. 16k with 5k buffer considered and no porting
4. 13k with 5k buffer considered and 3k porting

Per the 485 inventories of past year, let's say CO has seen a 2.5k density each month for EB2IC. And since he is delaying the Dec VB release, say he looks at incoming data as well as the PWMB who filed in Nov VB, and extrapolates to a 3k density, which Teddy pointed out earlier might be possible.

Hence in above each scenario, he needs further movement of:
1. 3.5 month movement to 15th February 2008
2. 2.5 month movement to 15th January 2008
3. 5 months movement to 1st April 2008
4. 4 months movement to 1st March 2008

Please this is just some hypothetical worst case analysis, not arguing here about it should be 3k density, or 2.5 k or 2k density, or porting should be 2k or 4k and so on. It is just to drive home the point that movement is needed, only the length of the movement is to be thought about by CO. I thought a lot about posting this and was almost not posting, because I don’t want to be blamed for my PD is 11/8/2007 and am trying to prove that at least I will be current etc. Nothing is guaranteed, not even a week's move frankly speaking, until it actually happens, we cant read their minds. You can surely plug in your numbers and post what you think it can be.

I understand the concept of huge 140 backlog for EB1, EB2ROW, but CO has been comfortable to give approvals freely for Oct VB as well as Nov VB. So let's say they have used 6k + 2.5k = 8.5k visas already for EB2IC for FY 2012. So it does mean CO is banking on low demand from EB2 ROW and EB1 already. I don’t think based on pressure from USCIS that one day in this FY, they will resolve the huge backlog to some degree, hence don’t grab applications to build inventory that might be useful at end of FY in order to not waste visa numbers, CO will let this bulletin slip by.

[leo07]

Good article. Makes sense. Retrogression is imminent without HR.3012. It's more a matter of when than if.

[suninphx]

Good article. Makes sense. Retrogression is imminent without HR.3012. It's more a matter of when than if.

If dates move too much then sure retrogression will happen..... As you said it more of when and also 'till what point backwards'...... I don't agree with CM that dates will retrogress till Sep 07 -nov 07. That does seem to be case based on data we know today.

[Nishant_imt]

My greencard was filed in Richmond VA by my consulting firm. At that time, they had a branch office from which they filed the greencard. 2 years later, i moved to another state on a different project. My company lost its primary vendorship in Richmond and hence shut down its Branch office there. I talked with Lawyer today and she confirmed that the greencard processing has to be filed again. So here are my questions:

1) Can I recapture my PD? how long do i have, to recapture my PD if the processing starts again.
2) Do I need to be in Richmond again to capture my PD? I mean the job again has to be in Richmond whether or not with the same consulting firm?
3) If I change job and go to any other state, can i still capture my PD?
4) If the new organization i join, files my greencard only after a year (which most of the organizations do) would i still be able to recapture my PD?
5) i am already in my 7th year of H1B, the last time i got an extension of 1 year based on my labor (I-140 came 2 days after filing H1B), so now if i change companies, would they be able to get 3 years extension for my H1B based on I-140 that was for Richmond Job?

Thanks in advance for any of your replies. I am really in a depressed state at this time. I would appreciate any word of consolation.

[nishant2200]

If your I-140 is approved, the PD is yours to keep regardless of anything, except if your I-140 gets approval gets revoked due to fraud. Do request your employer to give you a copy of the I-140 approval notice, so that you can attach with new I-140 and lawyer writes a cover letter to port the PD.

H1 extension beyond 6 years is possible, if you have filed for Labor or I-140 in new job or new GC process, and it's pending since more than 365 days - this will get you a one year extension, and if you have a approved I-140 in new job, this will get you a 3 year extension. In the first case, when lawyer requests extension, the start date of the extension can only be after the 365 days get over from the pending PERM or I-140 whichever is in pending state, so there might be brief period of when you are not valid for H1, I am not sure what is to be done for this boundary condition, a lawyer may advise.

Looking at your PD of 4/2009, mostly if you start soon in new job or new GC process, you should be able to avoid being a PWMB.

This is my understanding, I am not lawyer, always good to confirm with legal advice!


My greencard was filed in Richmond VA by my consulting firm. At that time, they had a branch office from which they filed the greencard. 2 years later, i moved to another state on a different project. My company lost its primary vendorship in Richmond and hence shut down its Branch office there. I talked with Lawyer today and she confirmed that the greencard processing has to be filed again. So here are my questions:

1) Can I recapture my PD? how long do i have, to recapture my PD if the processing starts again.
2) Do I need to be in Richmond again to capture my PD? I mean the job again has to be in Richmond whether or not with the same consulting firm?
3) If I change job and go to any other state, can i still capture my PD?
4) If the new organization i join, files my greencard only after a year (which most of the organizations do) would i still be able to recapture my PD?
5) i am already in my 7th year of H1B, the last time i got an extension of 1 year based on my labor (I-140 came 2 days after filing H1B), so now if i change companies, would they be able to get 3 years extension for my H1B based on I-140 that was for Richmond Job?

Thanks in advance for any of your replies. I am really in a depressed state at this time. I would appreciate any word of consolation.

[pch053]

nishant,
Your earlier calculation looks pretty good to me. My gut feeling is that CO might be comfortable with a buffer higher than 5K; maybe in the range of 5K - 10K. This is just my hunch and there is no logic behind this. But, since ~8K EB2I/C visas have been approved in the first two months, a similar buffer might be reasonable for future. If the buffer is around 10K, there will be another 2 month's worth movement; so overall the movement might be anywhere between May'08 (5K buffer) to July'08 (10K buffer). I think we will still see some forward movement in the next couple of bulletins and retrogression will occur around March-April'12 or so when the dates might go back to Nov-Dec'07. Of course there will be forward movement again during the normal spillover season when the dates will progress gradually depending on demand/supply ratio.

Irrespective of what exactly pans out in future, so far, everything has been positive for EB2I/C guys this year. Very few people expected the dates to move forward in Sep and Oct bulletins and also the pre-adjudicated visas to be approved during that time. This was certainly a deviation from the earlier years. The PD movement for Dec bulletin has also exceeded the expectation of most of us. If the PDs move another few months to in and around the vicinity of mid-2008, the overall PD movement for the whole year will be certainly more than what we all had hoped for at the beginning.

[dce.deepak]

Hi Nishant,

I think i am in a similar situation. My company (desi consulting) was based in location X filed my labor and I-140 and then got bought by another consulting company from based in location Y. My original company still exists but operates from location Y now. I still work very close to the original location X but not exact address. Location Y is pretty far from original location X.

Do I also need to start the GC process again. What primary reason lawyer gave for restarting the process.
Did you ask what are the chances of approval if you just file with current situation.
I thought once your I-140 is approved these things don't matter much.



My greencard was filed in Richmond VA by my consulting firm. At that time, they had a branch office from which they filed the greencard. 2 years later, i moved to another state on a different project. My company lost its primary vendorship in Richmond and hence shut down its Branch office there. I talked with Lawyer today and she confirmed that the greencard processing has to be filed again. So here are my questions:

1) Can I recapture my PD? how long do i have, to recapture my PD if the processing starts again.
2) Do I need to be in Richmond again to capture my PD? I mean the job again has to be in Richmond whether or not with the same consulting firm?
3) If I change job and go to any other state, can i still capture my PD?
4) If the new organization i join, files my greencard only after a year (which most of the organizations do) would i still be able to recapture my PD?
5) i am already in my 7th year of H1B, the last time i got an extension of 1 year based on my labor (I-140 came 2 days after filing H1B), so now if i change companies, would they be able to get 3 years extension for my H1B based on I-140 that was for Richmond Job?

Thanks in advance for any of your replies. I am really in a depressed state at this time. I would appreciate any word of consolation.

[GhostWriter]

Nishant, I think the simple assumption for demand = number of PERMs is actually EB2-IC 485s = Total PERMs for IC (including EB2 and EB3).
So the different factors EB2/Total PERM, I-140 approval rate and dependent ratio combine to be equal to 1. So you can't reduce the total PERM by taking only EB2 as that is already factored into the simplification. 2.5K is probably the more realistic density. But agree with the rest of your analysis though.
The open question now is if the 80% conversion from PERM to I-140 is enough or should it be lesser due to demand destruction and multiple PERMs (as being explored by Kanmani).


If we consider the simplistic assumption of demand = number of PERMs, the postulate that was being talked about on forum some pages back, I added the number of PERMs for EB2-EB3 India China from August 2007 to June 2008, and the average was 2466. But this includes EB3 also. If we say 75% of it is EB2, then 1850 EB2 PERMs. Even if you add a random 200 NIW, its around 2k density. With this simplification, the density goes way lower, and hence you can imagine the dates would extend much further from 1st May 2008, going well into the period for which NVC fee notices were sent, which was June 2008 latest what we know of.

The real density may lie somewhere in between the assumption of demand equals number of PERMS and the 2.5k.

[veni001]

Hi Nishant,

I think i am in a similar situation. My company (desi consulting) was based in location X filed my labor and I-140 and then got bought by another consulting company from based in location Y. My original company still exists but operates from location Y now. I still work very close to the original location X but not exact address. Location Y is pretty far from original location X.

Do I also need to start the GC process again. What primary reason lawyer gave for restarting the process.
Did you ask what are the chances of approval if you just file with current situation.
I thought once your I-140 is approved these things don't matter much.

Deepak,
PERM is position and location specific. If the employer move employee from the initial location/job attested in PERM labor to a new location/job then employer need to start PERM process for the new location/position.

In case of H1B, employer need file LCA for each location, when employee is moved from the original job location attested in the initial filing.

Having said that, since GC is for future employment, if the employer is offering the PERM job position in the place where it was initially applied, upon receiving GC, then no need to start new PERM process. Usally this is confirmed by your employer in the employment offer letter submitted with your i485.

[veni001]

Nishant, I think the simple assumption for demand = number of PERMs is actually EB2-IC 485s = Total PERMs for IC (including EB2 and EB3).
So the different factors EB2/Total PERM, I-140 approval rate and dependent ratio combine to be equal to 1. So you can't reduce the total PERM by taking only EB2 as that is already factored into the simplification. 2.5K is probably the more realistic density. But agree with the rest of your analysis though.
The open question now is if the 80% conversion from PERM to I-140 is enough or should it be lesser due to demand destruction and multiple PERMs (as being explored by Kanmani).

GhostWriter,
Looks like you still remember the discussion we had on this in the old thread. We beat this to death in last year's thread.

Nishant,
Either take Total PERM approved = EB2IC-485 demand, if not use EB2IC% from PERM, i140 denial ratio and dependent factor to derive EB2IC demand

I don't count porting in this calculations since my assumption is Porting-in = Porting-out (when you look at PERM numbers)

With the above assumption and the fact that PERM process is time consuming and expensive, you can ignore impact of multiple PERM cases on 485 demand.

[qesehmk]

Nishant

Sorry to hear that. IMHO you are secure on all questions you have raised except the last one. So don't worry on all of the first four - you are fine.

The last one is going to unfortunately throw a wrench in your GC process. Your H1 when it expires - you must have an approved labor + filed 140. If H1 expires before that then you must leave the country for one year and then come back on another H1.

Your GC could still continue since GC is independent of H1. But finding an employer who would continue with GC process when you can't work for him in US for 1 year is a challenge

Hope this clarifies .... I know it doesn't help. Sorry. But please do your homework and check with others and esp lawyers.



My greencard was filed in Richmond VA by my consulting firm. At that time, they had a branch office from which they filed the greencard. 2 years later, i moved to another state on a different project. My company lost its primary vendorship in Richmond and hence shut down its Branch office there. I talked with Lawyer today and she confirmed that the greencard processing has to be filed again. So here are my questions:

1) Can I recapture my PD? how long do i have, to recapture my PD if the processing starts again.
2) Do I need to be in Richmond again to capture my PD? I mean the job again has to be in Richmond whether or not with the same consulting firm?
3) If I change job and go to any other state, can i still capture my PD?
4) If the new organization i join, files my greencard only after a year (which most of the organizations do) would i still be able to recapture my PD?
5) i am already in my 7th year of H1B, the last time i got an extension of 1 year based on my labor (I-140 came 2 days after filing H1B), so now if i change companies, would they be able to get 3 years extension for my H1B based on I-140 that was for Richmond Job?

Thanks in advance for any of your replies. I am really in a depressed state at this time. I would appreciate any word of consolation.

[RMS_V13]

What perplexes me is..If you and I can do this calculation, would CO have not dont his homework?

He has visibility to the details(number of perms, EB3-Eb2 Split, porting etc) more than what we have and he has said "significant" fwd movement for another 2 months. He has kept up to his word so far.

[GhostWriter]

Yes, remember it and always admire it whenever i look at PERM data. It was observed by you and is the best rule of thumb for this entire process.


GhostWriter,
Looks like you still remember the discussion we had on this in the old thread. We beat this to death in last year's thread.

Nishant,
Either take Total PERM approved = EB2IC-485 demand, if not use EB2IC% from PERM, i140 denial ratio and dependent factor to derive EB2IC demand

I don't count porting in this calculations since my assumption is Porting-in = Porting-out (when you look at PERM numbers)

With the above assumption and the fact that PERM process is time consuming and expensive, you can ignore impact of multiple PERM cases on 485 demand.

[Nishant_imt]

So let's say I join a new company right now or my existing company restarts my gc process again, wouldn't theY be able to use the existing I140 to file for extension?



Nishant

Sorry to hear that. IMHO you are secure on all questions you have raised except the last one. So don't worry on all of the first four - you are fine.

The last one is going to unfortunately throw a wrench in your GC process. Your H1 when it expires - you must have an approved labor + filed 140. If H1 expires before that then you must leave the country for one year and then come back on another H1.

Your GC could still continue since GC is independent of H1. But finding an employer who would continue with GC process when you can't work for him in US for 1 year is a challenge

Hope this clarifies .... I know it doesn't help. Sorry. But please do your homework and check with others and esp lawyers.

[Nishant_imt]

Primary reason is that my consulting firm shut doors of its branch office in Richmond since the lost primary vendorship with the client and that's where I was place. So, even though the client has same position open, my company doesn't have an office in Richmond and they don't have that job for me. I am meeting my lawyer on Monday, will update you after that.




Hi Nishant,

I think i am in a similar situation. My company (desi consulting) was based in location X filed my labor and I-140 and then got bought by another consulting company from based in location Y. My original company still exists but operates from location Y now. I still work very close to the original location X but not exact address. Location Y is pretty far from original location X.

Do I also need to start the GC process again. What primary reason lawyer gave for restarting the process.
Did you ask what are the chances of approval if you just file with current situation.
I thought once your I-140 is approved these things don't matter much.

[qesehmk]

No and No - the reason being the labor is filed to a certain location and AC21 doesn't kick in until after 6 months since 485 is filed.

p.s. - a simple "thanks" go a long way when seeking help from others. Its surprising that educated people like you after living 7 years in this country forget such simple things.

pps - Veni and suninphx make a valid point. So I am assuming its the richmond office that sponsored your GC for richmond location as the base location and that is the office that is closed now.


So let's say I join a new company right now or my existing company restarts my gc process again, wouldn't theY be able to use the existing I140 to file for extension?

[suninphx]

Deepak,
PERM is position and location specific. If the employer move employee from the initial location/job attested in PERM labor to a new location/job then employer need to start PERM process for the new location/position.

In case of H1B, employer need file LCA for each location, when employee is moved from the original job location attested in the initial filing.

Having said that, since GC is for future employment, if the employer is offering the PERM job position in the place where it was initially applied, upon receiving GC, then no need to start new PERM process. Usally this is confirmed by your employer in the employment offer letter submitted with your i485.

Agree with Veni. This is how consulting (small and big) companies operate. They show company address as base location and employee can take assignments across country making employee location irrelevant. Your current location and client has nothing dot do with PERM position. Company address used for PERM matters most IMHO.

[Nishant_imt]

Haha... No no, don't be upset, a hearty "Thanks" was on its way , but I was still in conversation with you and the forum. Once I had all my questions answered, gratitude was to follow. Any ways, thanks a million for you prompt reply and suggestions.




No and No - the reason being the labor is filed to a certain location and AC21 doesn't kick in until after 6 months since 485 is filed.

p.s. - a simple "thanks" go a long way when seeking help from others. Its surprising that educated people like you after living 7 years in this country forget such simple things.

[Gclongwait]

Nishant

Sorry to hear that. IMHO you are secure on all questions you have raised except the last one. So don't worry on all of the first four - you are fine.

The last one is going to unfortunately throw a wrench in your GC process. Your H1 when it expires - you must have an approved labor + filed 140. If H1 expires before that then you must leave the country for one year and then come back on another H1.

Your GC could still continue since GC is independent of H1. But finding an employer who would continue with GC process when you can't work for him in US for 1 year is a
challenge
Hope this clarifies .... I know it doesn't help. Sorry. But please do your homework and check with others and esp lawyers.

Nishant,
My understanding of this is different. I had asked my company lawyers this exact thing 2 years ago. I had an approved I 140 from company x and then moved to company y. I asked the company y lawyers if the existing I140 from company x can be used for 3 year extensions of H1 and her answer was "we have done it before". Please note I personally never did it because I got my new I 140 before I needed an H1 extension, but you may want to ask a lawyer this.

[qesehmk]

No worries. All the best!

Haha... No no, don't be upset, a hearty "Thanks" was on its way , but I was still in conversation with you and the forum. Once I had all my questions answered, gratitude was to follow. Any ways, thanks a million for you prompt reply and suggestions.

[Nishant_imt]

Thanks nishant2200, Q, GClongwait, and everyone. I guess, I would be more clear after talking to my lawyer, but because of you guys, I have right questions to ask of her. Keep up the great job you do on this forum.

[dce.deepak]

Nishant,

My company also moved to a different location and shut down its office in perm location but I continue to work with a different client near the perm location. As Veni mentioned that GC is for future I think if we can get a employment letter during 485 which says that the location mentioned on perm (same geographical area) will be the location then it probably will work.
Its always good to check with lawyer. I will also try to get in touch with some lawyer and update you.

[TeddyKoochu]

Now that we are fine with 2.5k density as max, and 3k porting as max, and also the idea that CO wants 30k + buffer, we can redo the numbers done earlier.

Oct VB, 15th april to 15th july 2007 caused 5400 reduction in demand data, 2.5k still left as preadjudicated ready to go.

Nov VB, 15th july 2007 to Nov 1st : 8.5k incoming, includes 2.5k PWMB

I am adding 1000 more who were leftovers in late 2006 and early-mid 2007, who were not in demand data for Oct VB, due to various reasons like RFE or just slipped through the cracks, or did not show up in demand data, etc.

Also he started the year with around 8k ready to go, and he was comfortable consuming it with QSP. So let's assume he would be ready to have 5k buffer at least to begin the next FY 2013.

Total so far: 5400 + 2500 + 1000 + 8500= 17,400 let’s consider 17.5k

Going by past two years trend, CO would want 30k minimum, even not considering buffer. Lets consider 5k buffer as optional. This is now confirmed looking at aggressive movement.

To grab hence:
14.5k with 5k buffer considered and 3k porting

Considering 2.5k max density, he needs further movement of 5.8 months i.e. 6 months

Now this is until the November VB. In Nov VB he already moved 4.5 months. The demand data can be ignored, it's negligible. Hence, for 30k + 5k buffer, he needs to move 1.5 months more, that will take him to 1st May 2008.

If we consider the simplistic assumption of demand = number of PERMs, the postulate that was being talked about on forum some pages back, I added the number of PERMs for EB2-EB3 India China from August 2007 to June 2008, and the average was 2466. But this includes EB3 also. If we say 75% of it is EB2, then 1850 EB2 PERMs. Even if you add a random 200 NIW, its around 2k density. With this simplification, the density goes way lower, and hence you can imagine the dates would extend much further from 1st May 2008, going well into the period for which NVC fee notices were sent, which was June 2008 latest what we know of.

The real density may lie somewhere in between the assumption of demand equals number of PERMS and the 2.5k.

The 2.5K per month figure also includes porting baked in. The perm average is 2200 per month. Assuming roughly 3K porting I approximated the monthly number to 2500 just to simplify. Since porting also comes by gradually its probably ok to have it in the mix not ideal though.

So currently the trend is consumption = 8.5K, Intake 8 months = 2.5 * 8 = 20K. So the total is still less than 30K. So there appear to be strong chances of further forward movement by 2 - 4 months (5-10K buffer). Movement will not happen if CO is expecting less than 30K SOFAD or he wants to keep the buffer as 0. I would rate the chances of movement in the next bulletin as 50-50. It might be that the target is to match the NVC notices which came to people as far as June 2008.

[krodhityogi]

mygc,
can you not ask your Lawyer for just the A#? that is what i did while i was getting my i693 and she provided this info over email.

regards


Gurus,

I'm current from Dec 1st and currently in the process of filling Forms. I don't have copy of my approved I-140 (employer doesn't share). Now while filling I-485 et all forms, can the A# Box be left as BLANK? Any problems if left BLANK?

Thanks.

[Nishant_imt]

thanks deepak , i am also going to get in touch with my lawyer on Monday. in the mean while keep me updated if you learn anything new.



Nishant,

My company also moved to a different location and shut down its office in perm location but I continue to work with a different client near the perm location. As Veni mentioned that GC is for future I think if we can get a employment letter during 485 which says that the location mentioned on perm (same geographical area) will be the location then it probably will work.
Its always good to check with lawyer. I will also try to get in touch with some lawyer and update you.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends many of you have questions on the current trend. Here are my thoughts. Thanks to Veni & Spec for the perm data compilation and to Nishant2200, Suninphx, Kd2008, Kanmani and most importantly tonyromo for all their thoughts and calculations The summary below is a product of collective efforts..
- The current consumption is 8.5K; this is based on the fact that the October demand data showed 8.5K and looks like all preadjudicated cases from Jul 2007 are approved now. The demand data came down to 2.5K in Nov, interestingly China was higher than India which is also fine because China had higher filing by NIW in Jul 2007 than India.
- Porting I believe is just 3K per annum in fact the effective reduction in the EB3 inventory shows even less. The perm computations suggest that they may result in ~ 2200 EB2 I485's per month. So lets approximate this to 2500 per month. With 8 months of intake from Jul 15 to Mar 15 the intake this far has been 20K.
- This means CO is still short of the 30K mark which we believe is last year’s SOFAD. There will be no movement in the next bulletin only if they intend to have a 0 buffer or expect less than 30K SOFAD.
- I believe there is a very realistic chance of another forward movement in the next VB anywhere from 2-4 months based on 5-10K additional intake.
- Some of you have questions when I will get my GC; I believe realistically it should take 3 months for the batch that filed in Oct 2011. For the rest I believe the dates will certainly have to be retrogressed for orderly approval by PD. We would start to see the approvals for the Oct 2011 batch by Dec 2011.
I would encourage everyone to freely post their observations, findings and experiences which could help all of us to know what is happening, especially approvals.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends many of you are concerned about the location on the perm. I believe that most full time companies would mention the location as your current location at that time while most consulting companies would mention it as their headquarter. I believe what is important is that that location is not closed at the time of adjudication.

So in case you work for a consulting company doesn’t worry too much about your current location. GC is more for future employment. The location is just for salary determination purpose primarily. While adjudicating the case USCIS is more interested in checking if the salary requirement is met also they would know of all the locations where you have lived and worked via the G325A form. If you do not work in the geographical area defined by the labor LCA you may likely be a candidate for a EVL RFE, most current applicants a EVL RFE does not make much sense as most cases will see approval far sooner that Jul 2007 filers assuming the EVL is submitted with the application.

So in case one is still working in the GC LCA area its a slightly better situation at best. I believe the adjudication methodology is more about proving one as innocent rather than they proving you guilty. So as long as all red flags can be avoided the case may just get approved faster. It is individual luck and experience at best. In my own case when my GC was filed I worked in another state but now back to my company headquarter area which is also the perm location.

[dce.deepak]

Thanks Teddy, Veni, Q for taking time to reply..

Nishant,
you can read lot more about perm process details and prevailing wage here http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/faqsanswers.cfm
What I have understood till now is exactly what Teddy said above. PERM location is mainly for prevailing wage determination so if you are going to work at the same location (geographical area) after GC then it should be fine.
You can get details about prevailing wage and area here http://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm?event=ehGeneral.dspLogin

There is also a murthy chat session on monday. I am going to ask her this question during that session.

[nishant2200]

Veni, ghostwriter, thanks for correcting. I realized my mistake in the number of PERMs equalling 485 last night, but was unable to login and post. Seems my wifi router needed a reset.

Lets try to venture into some long term projection, although I agree its quite risk prone to do so!

So basically, the max density comes out to be 2.5k with that assumption or elsewise. Teddy has put an excellent post above, in which he is baking the porting into 2.5k. The difference in inventories pointed out by me showed 2k porting, but there was a point made about some cases added to local office, and hence 3k (I personally didn't completely understand this reason). Now let's say since even EB3 folks post july 2007 will port to EB2, few of them will, I guess we can stick with 3k max porting instead of 2k.

I think due to basic reasoning that it is CO, whose office intimates the NVC about sending fee notices, the dates moving to June 2008, the last we all know of about fee notices, has an excellent chance in the next VB or in two parts in next and next to next VB. I personally think next VB would be the kill shot, and it should take to 1st July 2008. Anything beyond that, is possible, but at this point, I feel I cannot say will happen for sure, as much as I can say for 1st July 2008.

FY 2012 has indeed been a turning point for lifecycle of EB2IC. I don't think anyone anticipated such early strikes by CO. Q was to his credit, the only person, so confidently saying that by March 2012, dates will move to March 2008 at least.

Suppose dates stop max around 1st July 2008 this FY, and due to eventual backlog level going back to 15k instead of current 25k for EB1, EB2ROW, SOFAD is around 24k, because new incoming reduces a bit avoiding most bad impact of backlog reduction. Then Folks in December 2007 to January 2008 would be borderline on GC issuance for FY 2012.

I have seen that PERMs get thinner in mid 2008 to beginning 2009, and even thinner in 2009 to mid 2010.
July 2008 to December 2008 , average PERM = 2068, 6 months 12.5k
January 2009 to June 2010, average PERM = 1644, 18 months 29.5k

So even FY 2013 will have great chance to move at least until December 2008 even considering CO has Jan 2008 to June 2008 in his kitty already, to make for next 25k + buffer.

If FY 2014, Eb1 EB2 ROW demand remains same, we assume backlog reduction already taken place by now, next move for SOFAD and buffer, should take you to June 2010.

I think regardless of how much buffer CO has left, he will magically find ways to circumvent problems, and do movements in time.

Notice that if current situations remain same, then wait time of EB2IC to apply is coming down from 5 years to 4 years to almost 3.x years in coming and current FYs.

[suninphx]

Ok guys. I have interesting observation to share. Credit to one of my team member.

So after dates moved in this VB obviously there was lot of excitement at workplace. Then discussion came to individual PDs. And interestingly in my team there are only 10% people with PD of 2008. Around 40% are 2007 or earlier and remaining 55% are 2009 onwards. So my question to you guys is what your team composition looks like in terms of PD mix?

PS: It's just a fun observation with no attempt to draw conclusions. At the same time I am curious to know what other Forum members team composition looks like? May be ..just may be it will present a different angle.

[familyguy]

Also guys, in the perm application section H there is a question (#17), which says:
"does the job require the alien to live on the employer's address? yes, no"

I think if the answer is no, most likely there shouldn't be any problem



Friends many of you are concerned about the location on the perm. I believe that most full time companies would mention the location as your current location at that time while most consulting companies would mention it as their headquarter. I believe what is important is that that location is not closed at the time of adjudication.

So in case you work for a consulting company doesn’t worry too much about your current location. GC is more for future employment. The location is just for salary determination purpose primarily. While adjudicating the case USCIS is more interested in checking if the salary requirement is met also they would know of all the locations where you have lived and worked via the G325A form. If you do not work in the geographical area defined by the labor LCA you may likely be a candidate for a EVL RFE, most current applicants a EVL RFE does not make much sense as most cases will see approval far sooner that Jul 2007 filers assuming the EVL is submitted with the application.

So in case one is still working in the GC LCA area its a slightly better situation at best. I believe the adjudication methodology is more about proving one as innocent rather than they proving you guilty. So as long as all red flags can be avoided the case may just get approved faster. It is individual luck and experience at best. In my own case when my GC was filed I worked in another state but now back to my company headquarter area which is also the perm location.

[chandrukv]

Friends,

I got current in Nov Bulletin. I applied for I-485 for my myself & my wife on November 3rd.

My Priority date is Sep 14 2007 which is specified correctly in my I-485 receipt.
In my Wife's I-485 receipt, Priority date is specified as Nov 3 2011(Same as the Received date) instead of Primary applicant Priority date.

Does any of you have similar discrepancy with dependent's priority dates in the receipts?

Thanks,

[manubhai]

[Moderators, please move/delete this after a few days]

HR 3012's companion bill, S. 1857, has just been introduced in the Senate Judiciary Committee. This will allow HR 3012 to pass the Senate quicker than if the companion bill had not been introduced.

Please show your support on PopVox and OpenCongress just as you all did for HR 3012.

Please note that this time around, the voices AGAINST these bills are much louder. It is even more important for us to do the little we can (as opposed to just talking about it here on the board).

POPVOX: https://www.popvox.com/bills/us/112/s1857
OpenCongress: http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-s1857/show

And in case you missed voting for HR 3012 earlier, please do so now.
POPVOX: https://www.popvox.com/bills/us/112/hr3012
OpenCongress: http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h3012/show

Please... "DO" the little you can to support this bill.

Thank you!

[TeddyKoochu]

Also guys, in the perm application section H there is a question (#17), which says:
"does the job require the alien to live on the employer's address? yes, no"

I think if the answer is no, most likely there shouldn't be any problem

Thanks, this is really very good to know.


Friends,

I got current in Nov Bulletin. I applied for I-485 for my myself & my wife on November 3rd.

My Priority date is Sep 14 2007 which is specified correctly in my I-485 receipt.
In my Wife's I-485 receipt, Priority date is specified as Nov 3 2011(Same as the Received date) instead of Primary applicant Priority date.

Does any of you have similar discrepancy with dependent's priority dates in the receipts?

Thanks,

Refer to the thread http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?238-Post-485-Filing/page2. Even my wife’s receipt has the RD as the PD. Looks like it’s a technicality nothing to worry.

[rahul2011]

Sorry for posting this in wrong email thread. MY Date is current in Dec Bulletin and i have few questions regarding my wife application in I485 Form.

My Wife is currently on H1 B Visa and Recently Her employer filed her extension and it is in Pending status ( old I94 was expired . She is on valid status and working on H1B Receipt Number)
In this situation what is the best answer to fill in I 485 Form for the questions "Current USCIS Status and Expires On" ?
Form : i-485
Part #1
"Current USCIS Status and Expires On"

[greenercard]

Hi,

I have been following this blog for a few weeks and still soaking in the details your members present. Most of it goes over my head! I can't believe this one usually doesn't show up in a typical Google search.

My GC EB2 India PD is 05/13/2008. Looking at the Dec bulletin, I'm hoping that I might be current in the next month or so.

My question is slightly off-topic but am hoping someone can guide me.

I was arrested back in 2001 while I was in college. Was charged with trying to break into a house, false accusation (right after 09/11 and all that). Spent a few days in jail waiting for the bail. The case was later dismissed, I think with a diversion. I remember having to write a paper as part of the diversion proceeding. I don't recall if I went ahead and had it expunged later or not.

I want to know what exactly about this case is needed to be submitted as part of my AOS application. This was so many years ago, I don't recall many details and also I don't live in the state where I was arrested. I called the circuit court and the district court of the county but the court clerks weren't able to pull any information based on my name/SSN etc., I know I had to get a document from that court 5/6 years ago when filing for either H1B or Perm. I got those docs form a friend at that time, but I'm not in touch with that friend now. I don't have that document anymore.

I'm not sure what to do now. If anyone has gone through submitting docs on a possibly expunged case, your help is appreciated. Also, would like to know any impact this may have on my application.

I haven't talked to a lawyer yet. The attorneys at work are supposed to take care of the filing - Fragomen. But, I believe they are rather busy with all the other cases right now I haven't been contacted yet.

[dce.deepak]

I believe to live and to work are two different things.


Also guys, in the perm application section H there is a question (#17), which says:
"does the job require the alien to live on the employer's address? yes, no"

I think if the answer is no, most likely there shouldn't be any problem

[Kanmani]

No and No - the reason being the labor is filed to a certain location and AC21 doesn't kick in until after 6 months since 485 is filed.

Q

I think the new company could extend his H1b for 3 more years using the approved I-140 of the old company.

http://www.murthy.com/chatlogs/ch122710_P.html ( First Question)

Please clarify me if I have misunderstood.

[qesehmk]

Kanmani

Thank you for siting this. Very useful. I think (not 100% sure), that would be quite restrictive for USCIS to use 140 from another employer to extend H1 with another one because the assumption there is that the GC process with the former is still in progress.

In this case, since the employer is shut down, i am not sure that it will be valid... but hey ... one can try!


Q

I think the new company could extend his H1b for 3 more years using the approved I-140 of the old company.

http://www.murthy.com/chatlogs/ch122710_P.html ( First Question)

Please clarify me if I have misunderstood.

[familyguy]

good point


I believe to live and to work are two different things.

[TeddyKoochu]

Kanmani

Thank you for siting this. Very useful. I think (not 100% sure), that would be quite restrictive for USCIS to use 140 from another employer to extend H1 with another one because the assumption there is that the GC process with the former is still in progress.

In this case, since the employer is shut down, i am not sure that it will be valid... but hey ... one can try!

Kanmani / Q I know of one example first hand. He is my close friend we both joined our consultancy company on the same day. He left the company to take up FTE with another company however my company told him that they will revoke his I140 however looks like did not keep their promise. My friend recently obtained his 3 Yr extension as opposed to 1 Year that he was expecting based on time left on H1 thanks to the I140 from the old company. So this is a little grey area but works.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

I agree with your 2500 per month total including porting for the rest of 2007 and 2008. Its not that our PD is in 2009 and my heart really wishes to see a lower number ahead of ours ,while calculating I always listen to my mind . I have already discussed about the multiple perm scenarios , adding to that, when Satyam became M.Sat , it withdrew all its deployment from US. It was during recession and people didnt get enough time to switch companies. Almost 90% had their Gc process started at that time .

Thank you for your deviation towards optimistic siders.

Kanmani, Thanks, our objective here is to arrive at a agreeable number based on numbers and then align our beliefs accordingly. Tonyromo proved beyond any reasonable doubt that the ratio of perms - I485 is really 1, even Veni has worked on this very extensively earlier and given us this axiom. My original assessment was based on the Jul inventory which is actually an anomaly due to various special factors prevailing at that time. I tried to bake the porting in the figure to make it simple. Very happy that we all agree, in fact the discussion was really helpful, you are right when doing this we should forget our own PD's and case totally. Lets sincerely hope that the next bulletin also has some more forward movement so that more people can file 485, CO is barely at 30K looks like.

[GhostWriter]

Nishant/Teddy/Q
One question and may be it has been discussed before. Lets say by the end of Sep 2012, 30K EB2-IC 485s are filed but only 20K are processed and approved and the remaining 10K 485s are pending inspite of the best efforts of USCIS to process the cases. Lets say the SOFAD for the year turns out to be 30K. What happens to the 10K extra available visas. Do they go to EB3 or are they put in a separate buffer and can be used later in next financial year when the cases are approved. What is the official rule in this scenario.

[suninphx]

Kanmani, Thanks, our objective here is to arrive at a agreeable number based on numbers and then align our beliefs accordingly. Tonyromo proved beyond any reasonable doubt that the ratio of perms - I485 is really 1, even Veni has worked on this very extensively earlier and given us this axiom. My original assessment was based on the Jul inventory which is actually an anomaly due to various special factors prevailing at that time. I tried to bake the porting in the figure to make it simple. Very happy that we all agree, in fact the discussion was really helpful, you are right when doing this we should forget our own PD's and case totally. Lets sincerely hope that the next bulletin also has some more forward movement so that more people can file 485, CO is barely at 30K looks like.

Teddy thank you for all guidance.
One question- are we projecting 2500/month density for whole 2008 or only till Jun/Jul 2008?

[qesehmk]

Thanks Teddy. That is a good hope for the person in question.

A slight complication here is that the company that filed (assuming its the Richmond office that filed) has folded. If true, when USCIS scrutinizes the underlying 140 as the basis for H1 extension, that could be a problem. But honestly if the parent company wants to retain this guy, they can IMHO make an argument to USCIS that the 140 is still valid since although operations are folded, the person will continue to use Richmond as his primary location.

The question is - does the company want to fulfil this or do they want to extend his GC process!!



Kanmani / Q I know of one example first hand. He is my close friend we both joined our consultancy company on the same day. He left the company to take up FTE with another company however my company told him that they will revoke his I140 however looks like did not keep their promise. My friend recently obtained his 3 Yr extension as opposed to 1 Year that he was expecting based on time left on H1 thanks to the I140 from the old company. So this is a little grey area but works.

[SaturnRing]

Kanmani, My spouse has done this twice with 2 different big attorneys and everyone including USCIS agrees that as long as you have some I140 (approved state and not revoked yet), they let you extend 3 yrs in H1. Even for a different employer.

Spouse has I140 from company A
We have extended 3 yrs based on that for company B's H1B
we have extended 3 yrs based on that for company Cs H1b

[Kanmani]

Teddy thank you for all guidance.
One question- are we projecting 2500/month density for whole 2008 or only till Jun/Jul 2008?
Suninphx
The total IC perms in the years 2007 and 2008 are almost similar with the diff of 1300 approx is negligible too.

[suninphx]

Suninphx
The total IC perms in the years 2007 and 2008 are almost similar with the diff of 1300 approx is negligible too.

Ok that makes sense.

Is demand destruction included in these calculations or it's on top of this. ( I am going to read Teddy's post again)

[SaturnRing]

Kanmani, My spouse has done this twice with 2 different big attorneys and everyone including USCIS agrees that as long as you have some I140 (approved state and not revoked yet), they let you extend 3 yrs in H1. Even for a different employer.

Spouse has I140 from company A
We have extended 3 yrs based on that for company B's H1B
we have extended 3 yrs based on that for company Cs H1b

And also to add, we have to give up Spouse's PD (Sep 2007), since Company C said they will sponsor GC after 6 months and we just switched to Company C in Jun 2011.

[mesan123]

Hi,

Actually for H1B extension USCIS is not scrutinising the I-140 we use. When i moved for fulltime employement last year, i got RFE because my fulltime company applied for 3 years H1b where in i had only 2 years left in my 6 years. in that RFE uscis asked whether i had any approved I-140 to get 3 year extension.

My friend got 3 years extension with I-140 from different company....So i dont know whether it is grey area or whether it is valid...but USCIS accepts the any valid I-140 for 3 year extensions


Thanks Teddy. That is a good hope for the person in question.

A slight complication here is that the company that filed (assuming its the Richmond office that filed) has folded. If true, when USCIS scrutinizes the underlying 140 as the basis for H1 extension, that could be a problem. But honestly if the parent company wants to retain this guy, they can IMHO make an argument to USCIS that the 140 is still valid since although operations are folded, the person will continue to use Richmond as his primary location.

The question is - does the company want to fulfil this or do they want to extend his GC process!!

[vizcard]

This is a personal "what if" scenario but may be relevant to others.

My PD is 8/20/2008 and my current H1 expires 11/30/2012. I obviously have to renew my H1 to be on the safe side. But is there a logical cut off point where it doesnt make sense to apply for an extension?

As an example, if I hypothetically get current by April and I apply in the first week of April, I could "EXPECT" EAD by Aug or Sept. in such a scenario does it make sense to apply for a H1 extension? What arguments could be made pro/con such a move?

PS: question is based on the calculation that if they wanted a 35k intake, they would need to move 4-6 months.

[qesehmk]

mesan / saturnring, thank you.

Looks like this is quite easy and straightforward then. Nishant pls update us on how your case moves forward. It will be helpful to others.


Hi,

Actually for H1B extension USCIS is not scrutinising the I-140 we use. When i moved for fulltime employement last year, i got RFE because my fulltime company applied for 3 years H1b where in i had only 2 years left in my 6 years. in that RFE uscis asked whether i had any approved I-140 to get 3 year extension.

My friend got 3 years extension with I-140 from different company....So i dont know whether it is grey area or whether it is valid...but USCIS accepts the any valid I-140 for 3 year extensions

[TeddyKoochu]

Ok that makes sense.

Is demand destruction included in these calculations or it's on top of this. ( I am going to read Teddy's post again)

Sun I agree with Kanmani's observation of the similarity in 2007 and 2008 perm numbers. So this approximation of 2.5K per month including everything will work. Now this factor of 1 has been validated against the first half of 2007 when demand destruction may have just been regular. In 2008 especally the later half not really the earlier part the demand destruction may have been higher because of virtual stoppage of perm approvals. As of now for the range that is current we have not hit that zone it really starts from May - Jun 2008 observe the perm table. So if you like you can have an additional destruction factor to cater to the 2008 market and perm situation it will swing the calculation to the optimistic side IMHO.

[nishant2200]

At this point, I personally, can only vouch for you with a degree of certainty in Q1 FY 2013. If you get in anytime in FY 2012, you got lucky because of less density a month due to factors people are speculating, like demand destruction etc. and/or high SOFAD expectation based on low demand in other categories.

My advice: Go for your last H1 extension and obtain peace of mind, and avoid what if scenario. If you want to take chance, then I think they promise EAD/AP in 90 days from applying, so that's your worst case situation. But let me tell you, there is no penalty to them if they dont give you in 90 days...

ps: I just read your H1 expires on 11/30/2012, that's quite late dude, for some reason I read it as something early earlier on. theoritically I believe you can even work on H1 if you have applied for it and have receipt, so can delay applying till like last moment is it. I personally faced this dillema this year, my H1 expiring in October 2011, I still went ahead and applied for extension 6 months (max allowable) earlier than the expiry for peace of mind, and turned out right, I ended up needing it. You never know.


This is a personal "what if" scenario but may be relevant to others.

My PD is 8/20/2008 and my current H1 expires 11/30/2012. I obviously have to renew my H1 to be on the safe side. But is there a logical cut off point where it doesnt make sense to apply for an extension?

As an example, if I hypothetically get current by April and I apply in the first week of April, I could "EXPECT" EAD by Aug or Sept. in such a scenario does it make sense to apply for a H1 extension? What arguments could be made pro/con such a move?

PS: question is based on the calculation that if they wanted a 35k intake, they would need to move 4-6 months.

[nishant2200]

This is my understanding. They can have dates current such that say in the last month or two months of Q4 FY 2012, they are able to "attach" visa numbers to those applications, and approve them later on. Such a movement forward would be a big one, so that they can grab as many CP applications who have fees paid, as well as for AOS applications, some applications randomly who happen to be on the "top" of a officer's table would get more lucky for visa attachment, those who missed out being on top will hopefully get in next FY Q1 because CO is happily doing QSP these days. Approvals would start trickling in Q1 FY 2013 due to this.

ps: to be on top of the table, people speculate drop in your applications as early as possible, hence the rush to get in on the 1st. I still say, make sure nothing incomplete and properly reviewed, better to not get an RFE and reach application on the 4th, instead of something messed up and getting in on 1st.



Nishant/Teddy/Q
One question and may be it has been discussed before. Lets say by the end of Sep 2012, 30K EB2-IC 485s are filed but only 20K are processed and approved and the remaining 10K 485s are pending inspite of the best efforts of USCIS to process the cases. Lets say the SOFAD for the year turns out to be 30K. What happens to the 10K extra available visas. Do they go to EB3 or are they put in a separate buffer and can be used later in next financial year when the cases are approved. What is the official rule in this scenario.

[sugada]

I have a concern in my present GC processing.
I am working with company A who filed PERM and later I-140 in EB2 which got approved but my priority date is Feb 2011. I am sure its a long waiting line for me. However I am getting offers to join another company B and wanted to know what I need to expect from this new employer to continue my PD. I think it is about AC-21 portability, can any of you let me know the steps involved in this portablility and what I have to ask from my new employer and their HR or lawyer. I appreciate taking interest in answering my concern, with best regards.
sugada

[nishant2200]

I have a concern in my present GC processing.
I am working with company A who filed PERM and later I-140 in EB2 which got approved but my priority date is Feb 2011. I am sure its a long waiting line for me. However I am getting offers to join another company B and wanted to know what I need to expect from this new employer to continue my PD. I think it is about AC-21 portability, can any of you let me know the steps involved in this portablility and what I have to ask from my new employer and their HR or lawyer. I appreciate taking interest in answering my concern, with best regards.
sugada

Please try to obtain the copy of I-140 approval notice from employer, that will be used to port your PD, or at least the case receipt number.

Company B has to again through entire process from beginning for GC, only thing lawyer will do is attach copy of prior I-140 approval notice of company A and request USCIS to use older PD on the new I-140. If you don't get copy of prior I-140 approval notice, I have heard that just knowing the case receipt number also has worked. 2011 is surely long way off, don't lose opportunity. I personally wasted a lot of time sitting around with same employer. As long as you have confidence new employer won't have problems doing EB2, go ahead.

ps: sugada, are you sogaddu's cousin :)

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Nishant. This would make sense. Since 2007 this would be the first year when they will have to do a huge number of approvals so it might eventually come down to this scenario.


This is my understanding. They can have dates current such that say in the last month or two months of Q4 FY 2012, they are able to "attach" visa numbers to those applications, and approve them later on. Such a movement forward would be a big one, so that they can grab as many CP applications who have fees paid, as well as for AOS applications, some applications randomly who happen to be on the "top" of a officer's table would get lucky. Approvals would start trickling in Q1 FY 2013 due to this.

[nishant2200]

Thanks Nishant. This would make sense. Since 2007 this would be the first year when they will have to do a huge number of approvals so it might eventually come down to this scenario.

Sure man, no one will complain in EB2IC!

If you guys see trackitt 485 forum, good to see EB1 etc reaction on our big moves

[mygctracker]

Folks,

Found below info from CIS CFR regarding Submitting Secondary evidence & affidavits. If I interpret this correctly, it says when Birth Certificate details are incomplete or unavailable, Secondary evidence is Church or School Records. If Secondary Evidence also is not available, then 2 Sworn affidavits come into play. I think this is in line with what Nishant's Lawyer told him. Tear it apart.

(2) Submitting secondary evidence and affidavits .


(i) General . The non-existence or other unavailability of required evidence creates a presumption of ineligibility. If a required document, such as a birth or marriage certificate, does not exist or cannot be obtained, an applicant or petitioner must demonstrate this and submit secondary evidence, such as church or school records, pertinent to the facts at issue. If secondary evidence also does not exist or cannot be obtained, the applicant or petitioner must demonstrate the unavailability of both the required docum ent and relevant secondary evidence, and submit two or more affidavits, sworn to or affirmed by persons who are not parties to the petition who have direct personal knowledge of the event and circumstances. Secondary evidence must overcome the unavailability of primary evidence, and affidavits must overcome the unavailability of both primary and secondary evidence.


(ii) Demonstrating that a record is not available . Where a record does not exist, the applicant or petitioner must submit an original written statement on government letterhead establishing this from the relevant government or other authority. The statement must indicate the reason the record does not exist, and indicate whether similar records for the time and place are available. However, a certification from an appropriate foreign government that a document does not exist is not required where the Department of State's Foreign Affairs Manual indicat es this type of document generally does not exist. An applicant or petitioner who has not been able to acquire the necessary document or statement from the relevant foreign authority may submit evidence that repeated good faith attempts were made to obtain the required document or statement. However, where USCIS finds that such documents or statements are generally available, it may require that the applicant or petitioner submit the required document or statement. (Amended effective 6/18/07; 72 FR 19100 )


http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-11185/0-0-0-11549/0-0-0-11565.html

Thanks.

[DonDron]

Guys, I am kind of in dilemma here and need some advice. My priority date is in June and I am hoping it to be current in next bulletin. The problem is wife is currently out of US and I am planning to join her late in Dec. We are planning to coming back in Feb. Now the things I am unclear about is :

1. Can I go out of country immediately after applying I-485?
2. What are the chances that PD will remain current for me in January 2012? (I don't want my wife to cut her trip short and come back in Dec. She is couple of important functions to attend - like her brothers wedding) I was hoping I could file my wife's AOS after she comes back. Is this a good idea?
3. How long generally lawyers take to prepare the I-485 application and file?
4. Should we file together (either in December or when we come back )?

Am I missing any point that I should consider in this situation?

Help will be really appreciated.

[veni001]

Guys, I am kind of in dilemma here and need some advice. My priority date is in June and I am hoping it to be current in next bulletin. The problem is wife is currently out of US and I am planning to join her late in Dec. We are planning to coming back in Feb. Now the things I am unclear about is :

1. Can I go out of country immediately after applying I-485?
2. What are the chances that PD will remain current for me in January 2012? (I don't want my wife to cut her trip short and come back in Dec. She is couple of important functions to attend - like her brothers wedding) I was hoping I could file my wife's AOS after she comes back. Is this a good idea?
3. How long generally lawyers take to prepare the I-485 application and file?
4. Should we file together (either in December or when we come back )?

Am I missing any point that I should consider in this situation?

Help will be really appreciated.

Don,
January VB should be out by mid December, if your PD is going to be current you can always change your rerun flights to come back and apply for AOS.

Q1) Yes, on valid non-immigrant status (when you come back have to enter into US using a valid VISA).
Q2) Don't know at this point!
Q3) This shouldn't take more than a week.
Q4) Yes, strongly advise to apply together.

[DonDron]

Veni, Thanks.

I am going India in last week of Dec. Are you suggesting, come back in January and apply for AOS? I was thinking in same line but not sure if my PD will be current in Feb 2012 visa bulletin. Also, can you please clarify, what are the reasons you are strongly advising against not filing together?

[veni001]

Veni, Thanks.

I am going India in last week of Dec. Are you suggesting, come back in January and apply for AOS? I was thinking in same line but not sure if my PD will be current in Feb 2012 visa bulletin. Also, can you please clarify, what are the reasons you are strongly advising against not filing together?

Don,
In that case even if you are going to be current you will have at least a week before you leave to IND. Once January VB is out and if you are current then get all the paper work done before you leave, both of you can come back by last week in Jan to apply AOS, if your PD continue to be current in Feb'12 (based on Feb VB, will be released by mid Jan) you can come back in Feb ( as originally planned) and apply AOS.

When both you and your spouse don't apply together then, when you apply for your spouse you need to include your i485 receipt, tax returns...etc (additional evidence), which could delay spouse's AOS. If the dates retrogress before sending your spouse's AOS application could be a whole different story!

[DonDron]

Maybe I am confusing myself. Can someone please help me and correct my understanding?

1. In Dec, whatever visa bulletin comes, Is it called January Visa bulletin?
2. I am hoping to be current in the next months visa bulletin. Is it January Visa bulletin?
3. So, if 1. and 2. are correct, does it mean if in the next Visa bulletin, (January visa bulletin) I am correct then I can file AOS by 31st January even if in the visa bulletin which comes in January 2012 (which would be Feb visa bulletin), dates retrogress?

[veni001]

Maybe I am confusing myself. Can someone please help me and correct my understanding?

1. In Dec, whatever visa bulletin comes, Is it called January Visa bulletin?
2. I am hoping to be current in the next months visa bulletin. Is it January Visa bulletin?
3. So, if 1. and 2. are correct, does it mean if in the next Visa bulletin, (January visa bulletin) I am correct then I can file AOS by 31st January even if in the visa bulletin which comes in January 2012 (which would be Feb visa bulletin), dates retrogress?

Don,
December'11 VB (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5603.html) was released last week, so next VB will be Jan'12.

Q3) Yes

[kd2008]

Sun I agree with Kanmani's observation of the similarity in 2007 and 2008 perm numbers. So this approximation of 2.5K per month including everything will work. Now this factor of 1 has been validated against the first half of 2007 when demand destruction may have just been regular. In 2008 especally the later half not really the earlier part the demand destruction may have been higher because of virtual stoppage of perm approvals. As of now for the range that is current we have not hit that zone it really starts from May - Jun 2008 observe the perm table. So if you like you can have an additional destruction factor to cater to the 2008 market and perm situation it will swing the calculation to the optimistic side IMHO.

Teddy, I had replied to Tony's message earlier. But did not get further discussion. Please see below and let me know if my thinking has valid grounds in your opinion.


Tony, based on the evidence presented by you, I would agree with you and say that my ratio is optimistic. The reason I was going for a ratio less than one is that in the last four years their has not been the support of EAD which was there for pre-July2007 filers, the recession and people going back & that wasn't the case in pre-July2007, people filing multiple PERMS due to job changes without an EAD.

More people filing in EB2 is already accounted in the higher ratio of EB2:EB3 and should not be used to compensate for demand destruction.

In spite of these factors, I agree with you and say, the ratio to be taken is 1.0

[sugada]

Please try to obtain the copy of I-140 approval notice from employer, that will be used to port your PD, or at least the case receipt number.

Company B has to again through entire process from beginning for GC, only thing lawyer will do is attach copy of prior I-140 approval notice of company A and request USCIS to use older PD on the new I-140. If you don't get copy of prior I-140 approval notice, I have heard that just knowing the case receipt number also has worked. 2011 is surely long way off, don't lose opportunity. I personally wasted a lot of time sitting around with same employer. As long as you have confidence new employer won't have problems doing EB2, go ahead.

ps: sugada, are you sogaddu's cousin :)


Thanks Nishant,
I do have a copy of I-140, and I hope it wouldnt be a difficult challenge for me to convince my new employer to file I-140 again. I will certainly pursue this.
No, I am not sogaddus cousin but I would certainly like to be a brother among this band to march.
Thanks for your great advice.
Sugada

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, I had replied to Tony's message earlier. But did not get further discussion. Please see below and let me know if my thinking has valid grounds in your opinion.

KD your point is valid, in fact Suninphx & Kanmani have also been making the same point. The ratio of 1 is from the first half of 2007 it certainly has demand destruction but something that would be more relative to that time (Things were good in early 2007), everyone had the cushion of EAD & AP though. Now agree that the situation was bad in 2008 but it was only in late 2008 in fact from May - Jun 2008 that perm became very tough to come by so we haven't hit that zone in essence. I would believe that demand destruction will be higher if someone’s labor went for a long audit.
In fact everyone who missed Jul 2007 to Mar 15th 2008 has been in kind of the same situation. Now since some destruction is only baked in by using 1 as the factor I feel the rest should be used as a buffer really. Otherwise you can choose something like 10% which just reduces the intake from 20K to 18K which hardly would make the difference of a month. I honestly believe that the next bulletin has to be the final intake as by that time PWMB cases filed last month will start to ripen up for sure and maybe even some filed in Nov. Nishant told me that the NVC works under the direct supervision of CO's office and since the fee notices went out till sometime in Jun 2008 PD's the dates may likely move there if the intake has not been sufficient. By all accounts even in the most optimistic scenario that is safe for a 30K buffer. Also on another note if labor becomes tough NIW is the way to avoid that and these cases are not even there in the perm data so this might compensate some of the destruction.

[kd2008]

KD your point is valid, in fact Suninphx & Kanmani have also been making the same point. The ratio of 1 is from the first half of 2007 it certainly has demand destruction but something that would be more relative to that time (Things were good in early 2007), everyone had the cushion of EAD & AP though. Now agree that the situation was bad in 2008 but it was only in late 2008 in fact from May - Jun 2008 that perm became very tough to come by so we haven't hit that zone in essence. I would believe that demand destruction will be higher if someone’s labor went for a long audit.
In fact everyone who missed Jul 2007 to Mar 15th 2008 has been in kind of the same situation. Now since some destruction is only baked in by using 1 as the factor I feel the rest should be used as a buffer really. Otherwise you can choose something like 10% which just reduces the intake from 20K to 18K which hardly would make the difference of a month. I honestly believe that the next bulletin has to be the final intake as by that time PWMB cases filed last month will start to ripen up for sure and maybe even some filed in Nov. Nishant told me that the NVC works under the direct supervision of CO's office and since the fee notices went out till sometime in Jun 2008 PD's the dates may likely move there if the intake has not been sufficient. By all accounts even in the most optimistic scenario that is safe for a 30K buffer. Also on another note if labor becomes tough NIW is the way to avoid that and these cases are not even there in the perm data so this might compensate some of the destruction.

Teddy, thank you for explaining the nuances.

[suninphx]

Teddy, I had replied to Tony's message earlier. But did not get further discussion. Please see below and let me know if my thinking has valid grounds in your opinion.

KD, that's what my thought was. But same time I think for now we can go with 2500/month for whole 2008 and see how it pans out in coming months. Just don't want to be too optimistic as these are still initial days. What do you think?

[vizcard]

KD, that's what my thought was. But same time I think for now we can go with 2500/month for whole 2008 and see how it pans out in coming months. Just don't want to be too optimistic as these are still initial days. What do you think?

I would say that's the way to go. Stick with the underlying facts until the facts change.

[kd2008]

KD, that's what my thought was. But same time I think for now we can go with 2500/month for whole 2008 and see how it pans out in coming months. Just don't want to be too optimistic as these are still initial days. What do you think?

I think it goes beyond being optimistic. The optimistic demand calculation won't result in optimistic date movement immediately. The demand calculation itself is rooted in feedback we see from fellow members - about folks returning back, multiple PERMs etc. This information is something that USCIS and DoS cannot collect and verify easily. Their only choice is to move dates till they get the demand they need for approvals. I would say we are cautious as in the past we have been blindsided by sudden ROW demand jumps and backlog clearance.

Also USCIS always had a buffer of few thousand cases for EB2ROW even when they are current - Oct 2011 inventory shows 10K which indicates a real backlog. Now that they are rebuilding the demand for EB2IC, I think they would want to do the same.

So a optimistic movement comes from this angle.

So there are two forces at work. Optimistic demand calculation rooted in feedback of fellow members and optimistic date movement based in USCIS inventory history.

[nishant2200]

Teddy, a minor correction. I meant CO's office is the entity that intimates NVC over date movement instruction and backlog estimates. NVC is under DOS and so is CO. USCIS is under department of homeland security and does not have any direct relation with CO's office. On the other hand, NVC is direct sibling of CO's office, and speculative fee notices for future has to come from CO, the big boss of visa control division.

In hindsight, this all looks like a conspired plan, with CO bent on sticking to the direction his office gave to NVC.

I have been hounding other forums for data mining, and multiple PERMs thing is a bit deeper reality than I thought, this I will say. Also EB1 is seeing big slow down in processing, they are pissed off.


KD your point is valid, in fact Suninphx & Kanmani have also been making the same point. The ratio of 1 is from the first half of 2007 it certainly has demand destruction but something that would be more relative to that time (Things were good in early 2007), everyone had the cushion of EAD & AP though. Now agree that the situation was bad in 2008 but it was only in late 2008 in fact from May - Jun 2008 that perm became very tough to come by so we haven't hit that zone in essence. I would believe that demand destruction will be higher if someone’s labor went for a long audit.
In fact everyone who missed Jul 2007 to Mar 15th 2008 has been in kind of the same situation. Now since some destruction is only baked in by using 1 as the factor I feel the rest should be used as a buffer really. Otherwise you can choose something like 10% which just reduces the intake from 20K to 18K which hardly would make the difference of a month. I honestly believe that the next bulletin has to be the final intake as by that time PWMB cases filed last month will start to ripen up for sure and maybe even some filed in Nov. Nishant told me that the NVC works under the direct supervision of CO's office and since the fee notices went out till sometime in Jun 2008 PD's the dates may likely move there if the intake has not been sufficient. By all accounts even in the most optimistic scenario that is safe for a 30K buffer. Also on another note if labor becomes tough NIW is the way to avoid that and these cases are not even there in the perm data so this might compensate some of the destruction.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, a minor correction. I meant CO's office is the entity that intimates NVC over date movement instruction and backlog estimates. NVC is under DOS and so is CO. USCIS is under department of homeland security and does not have any direct relation with CO's office. On the other hand, NVC is direct sibling of CO's office, and speculative fee notices for future has to come from CO, the big boss of visa control division.

In hindsight, this all looks like a conspired plan, with CO bent on sticking to the direction his office gave to NVC.

I have been hounding other forums for data mining, and multiple PERMs thing is a bit deeper reality than I thought, this I will say. Also EB1 is seeing big slow down in processing, they are pissed off.

Besides EB1, even EB2 ROW is running significantly slow on Trackitt for last month. This could mean good news if the trend continues for a few months.

[Jan2008]

I have a question that I've been meaning to ask from quite sometime now. My PD got current in the Dec bulletin and I am getting things to ready to file as early as Dec 2nd. Now taking into account that it takes 90 days for EAD and AP, I am hopeful to have something by March end- latest.

I am planning to make a trip to India late March/ early April for a family event. My real question is- I have not been to India in the last 6 years.. ever since I came here on H1. Can I make a trip in just few weeks of getting EAD/ AP? Or will I be scrutinize for planning a trip to India right after my EAD/ AP arrival.

I wasn't able to plan a visit for multiple reasons and hoping I don't get into trouble for not leaving the country on H1, but on EAD/ AP. Please advice if someone has been in the similar situation?

[suninphx]

I have a question that I've been meaning to ask from quite sometime now. My PD got current in the Dec bulletin and I am getting things to ready to file as early as Dec 2nd. Now taking into account that it takes 90 days for EAD and AP, I am hopeful to have something by March end- latest.

I am planning to make a trip to India late March/ early April for a family event. My real question is- I have not been to India in the last 6 years.. ever since I came here on H1. Can I make a trip in just few weeks of getting EAD/ AP? Or will I be scrutinize for planning a trip to India right after my EAD/ AP arrival.

I wasn't able to plan a visit for multiple reasons and hoping I don't get into trouble for not leaving the country on H1, but on EAD/ AP. Please advice if someone has been in the similar situation?

Just by receiving EAD/AP you dont move into that status unless you change form (I dont recollect exact name of the form...but this is form you fill with HR when you joj company or when alien's status chanegs) to reflect this change. Why not attempt stamping H1 and keep EAD/AP as backup? Also, please make sure you check all your options with a competent immigration lawyer.

[srimurthy]

ps: I just read your H1 expires on 11/30/2012, that's quite late dude, for some reason I read it as something early earlier on. theoritically I believe you can even work on H1 if you have applied for it and have receipt, so can delay applying till like last moment is it. I personally faced this dillema this year, my H1 expiring in October 2011, I still went ahead and applied for extension 6 months (max allowable) earlier than the expiry for peace of mind, and turned out right, I ended up needing it. You never know.

This is confirmed by my Lawyer that you can work on H1 and considered in status if someone applied for extension before the H1 expiry date. Even if its not approved and still getting processed by USCIS, the status is considered valid. I had a situation where my lawyer sent my file for extension four times to USCIS for extension and every time it came back from the officer saying he needed extra 500$, because of not considering successor of interest details. My lawyer was adamant not to pay a single penny extra to USCIS and on the lighter side may be wanted to keep that with himself, even if the company gave a go ahead to pay the extra amount since we wanted a receipt number before expiry date (end of Oct). Finally he sent the docs with reasoning to the Supervisor and it was approved. Also when the final docs were sent to Supervisor the receive date at USCIS was beyond my H1 expiry date, but Lawyer said we are good and in status as we have proof that we did the right thing and the USCIS officer did not accept because he was not looking at the right information. Hope this helps.

[imdeng]

That is interesting info with significant bearing on PD movement. Thanks Teddy.

The factors that are important right now for EB2I movement in my mind:
A) Buffer level desired by CO - I think 30K is being considered a good estimate - could be as high as 40K.
B) Demand density 07/07 onwards - We are settling in at 2.5K/month and going down sharply after mid-2008. There is potential of this turning out to be lower with DD (Demand Destruction).
C) EB1, EB2ROW consumption levels this FY - trackitt is showing slowdown - will need to see if the trends continue. If USCIS goes on a backlog reduction mode for EB1/EB2ROW then that will negate some of the positive impact.

All in all looking quite good. I guess July 01, 2008 NVC Fee Notice is looking right on the money.


Besides EB1, even EB2 ROW is running significantly slow on Trackitt for last month. This could mean good news if the trend continues for a few months.

[Stemcell]

Not sure if my memory is failing me....but i remember reading somewhere that NVC fee notices had been sent to someone with a PD of Sept 2008.




That is interesting info with significant bearing on PD movement. Thanks Teddy.

The factors that are important right now for EB2I movement in my mind:
A) Buffer level desired by CO - I think 30K is being considered a good estimate - could be as high as 40K.
B) Demand density 07/07 onwards - We are settling in at 2.5K/month and going down sharply after mid-2008. There is potential of this turning out to be lower with DD (Demand Destruction).
C) EB1, EB2ROW consumption levels this FY - trackitt is showing slowdown - will need to see if the trends continue. If USCIS goes on a backlog reduction mode for EB1/EB2ROW then that will negate some of the positive impact.

All in all looking quite good. I guess July 01, 2008 NVC Fee Notice is looking right on the money.

[imdeng]

BTW - for some reason, some posters on trackitt forums consider our forum to be inaccurate. It doesn't bother me - but I don't think this is warranted. We are a fact based discussion group and our assumptions are all laid out in public and discussed. After that if predictions are not accurate - it is because of the inherent systemic issues with the process and not the analysis. Even then, I don't think we have been any more off the mark than any other source. If anything, IIRC, Teddy nailed down the end of FY PD and Q has been correct about by when the pipeline needs to be filled.

[imdeng]

I have not heard of a confirmed report of a Sept2008 fee notice. I believe the best date was announced in Ron's forum - but I don't recall what it was.


Not sure if my memory is failing me....but i remember reading somewhere that NVC fee notices had been sent to someone with a PD of Sept 2008.

[suninphx]

That is interesting info with significant bearing on PD movement. Thanks Teddy.

The factors that are important right now for EB2I movement in my mind:
A) Buffer level desired by CO - I think 30K is being considered a good estimate - could be as high as 40K.
B) Demand density 07/07 onwards - We are settling in at 2.5K/month and going down sharply after mid-2008. There is potential of this turning out to be lower with DD (Demand Destruction).
C) EB1, EB2ROW consumption levels this FY - trackitt is showing slowdown - will need to see if the trends continue. If USCIS goes on a backlog reduction mode for EB1/EB2ROW then that will negate some of the positive impact.

All in all looking quite good. I guess July 01, 2008 NVC Fee Notice is looking right on the money.

And to add to what you said...all this points to increasing probability of your signature line (content) :)

[Karma1979]

I know it is not mandatory to send tax returns, W2 and pay stubs to file I-485. My lawyer is not asking for those documents and also insists that we should not send them more documents than they require. Wanted to put this on the blog and get a feel of what other lawyers r doing. So all who became current. r your lawyers asking for these documents?

[imdeng]

Ha ha - yes I hope. Right now, I would consider it a better than half chance (hence "expecting") - although it can very well get pushed to Oct-Nov-Dec 2013 if stars don't align well. In any event, I am looking at between 3.5 to 4.5 years for filing 485 - which, considering everything, is quite acceptable.


And to add to what you said...all this points to increasing probability of your signature line (content) :)

[suninphx]

Ha ha - yes I hope. Right now, I would consider it a better than half chance (hence "expecting") - although it can very well get pushed to Oct-Nov-Dec 2013 if stars don't align well. In any event, I am looking at between 3.5 to 4.5 years for filing 485 - which, considering everything, is quite acceptable.

Yes - Agree :)

[imdeng]

Based on what I have read, joint tex returns are good to have (not essential) if you have a spouse as dependent. Recent pay stubs are good to have along with EVL. W2s, though not essential again, are a small bit of paper with significant information - so good to have again. I would rather that you have more supporting docs (well arranged, with a good cover letter listing them in order) than get an RFE for something.


I know it is not mandatory to send tax returns, W2 and pay stubs to file I-485. My lawyer is not asking for those documents and also insists that we should not send them more documents than they require. Wanted to put this on the blog and get a feel of what other lawyers r doing. So all who became current. r your lawyers asking for these documents?

[suninphx]

BTW - for some reason, some posters on trackitt forums consider our forum to be inaccurate. It doesn't bother me - but I don't think this is warranted. We are a fact based discussion group and our assumptions are all laid out in public and discussed. After that if predictions are not accurate - it is because of the inherent systemic issues with the process and not the analysis. Even then, I don't think we have been any more off the mark than any other source. If anything, IIRC, Teddy nailed down the end of FY PD and Q has been correct about by when the pipeline needs to be filled.

Same set of people are predicting dates to move into early 2010 by end of FY 2012. So you know how much 'weighatage' to give their opinions [:d]

[geevikram]

Guys, maybe it's time to update the first page with latest predictions. Mar'08 is no longer a prediction, it is a fact. Just my .04$.

[bieber]

Monica,

someone in our forum posted that he/she had Sept2008 PD and his friend/co-worker with same PD received NVC notice because for some reason their lawyer had his friend in CP

here is the post and link

la_2002_ch
Gurus, one of my colleagues with a similar PD as mine (Sep 2008) just heard from our common attorney that he has received the fee notice for his CP case. (dont know why the HR decided to file my case as AOS and his as CP).

Does this help us in predicting any good/bad news (Hoping good... so that I can file the EAD for my wife).


http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2011&p=6687#post6687

[Jonty Rhodes]

Came across these news.

New ImmigrationTracker Visa Bulletin Report Enables a Head Start of up to 15 Days in Filing Green Card Petitions

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/10/20/prweb8894626.DTL

I don't know whether the tracker would be just predicting an advancement of the date with an inbuilt software program or whether it would provide attorneys or HR, a real time information of the advancement of PDs 15 days earlier than visa bulletin release. If it is only meant to do prediction, than it is just another way to make money for the company. Anyways, I shared it as I thought it was interesting.

Second article is for people in EB3 category whose children is more than 21 years old and had their AOS (I-485) filed in 2007 when they were less than 21.

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2011,1026-mehta.shtm

[ontheedge]

I know it is not mandatory to send tax returns, W2 and pay stubs to file I-485. My lawyer is not asking for those documents and also insists that we should not send them more documents than they require. Wanted to put this on the blog and get a feel of what other lawyers r doing. So all who became current. r your lawyers asking for these documents?

It is advisable to send these documents as they also serve as a proof of continued employment. I'm quite surprised that these (at the very least paystubs) are not mandatory.

[Waiting4Ever]

This kind of makes sense with stated assumptions. But am curious how does this projection alter with Fairness act(I have my hopes pinned on it)?
Another question, How are the PERM's faring from June 2010 to July 2011? Where do you get that data from?


Veni, ghostwriter, thanks for correcting. I realized my mistake in the number of PERMs equalling 485 last night, but was unable to login and post. Seems my wifi router needed a reset.

Lets try to venture into some long term projection, although I agree its quite risk prone to do so!

So basically, the max density comes out to be 2.5k with that assumption or elsewise. Teddy has put an excellent post above, in which he is baking the porting into 2.5k. The difference in inventories pointed out by me showed 2k porting, but there was a point made about some cases added to local office, and hence 3k (I personally didn't completely understand this reason). Now let's say since even EB3 folks post july 2007 will port to EB2, few of them will, I guess we can stick with 3k max porting instead of 2k.

I think due to basic reasoning that it is CO, whose office intimates the NVC about sending fee notices, the dates moving to June 2008, the last we all know of about fee notices, has an excellent chance in the next VB or in two parts in next and next to next VB. I personally think next VB would be the kill shot, and it should take to 1st July 2008. Anything beyond that, is possible, but at this point, I feel I cannot say will happen for sure, as much as I can say for 1st July 2008.

FY 2012 has indeed been a turning point for lifecycle of EB2IC. I don't think anyone anticipated such early strikes by CO. Q was to his credit, the only person, so confidently saying that by March 2012, dates will move to March 2008 at least.

Suppose dates stop max around 1st July 2008 this FY, and due to eventual backlog level going back to 15k instead of current 25k for EB1, EB2ROW, SOFAD is around 24k, because new incoming reduces a bit avoiding most bad impact of backlog reduction. Then Folks in December 2007 to January 2008 would be borderline on GC issuance for FY 2012.

I have seen that PERMs get thinner in mid 2008 to beginning 2009, and even thinner in 2009 to mid 2010.
July 2008 to December 2008 , average PERM = 2068, 6 months 12.5k
January 2009 to June 2010, average PERM = 1644, 18 months 29.5k

So even FY 2013 will have great chance to move at least until December 2008 even considering CO has Jan 2008 to June 2008 in his kitty already, to make for next 25k + buffer.

If FY 2014, Eb1 EB2 ROW demand remains same, we assume backlog reduction already taken place by now, next move for SOFAD and buffer, should take you to June 2010.

I think regardless of how much buffer CO has left, he will magically find ways to circumvent problems, and do movements in time.

Notice that if current situations remain same, then wait time of EB2IC to apply is coming down from 5 years to 4 years to almost 3.x years in coming and current FYs.

[grnwtg]

My lawyer also asked for same, they did not include tax return/pay stubs/schools certificates( thought she said would exame that and let me know if i need affidavit or not as my BC registration date was june 2007 and my wife parents does not have last name in the BC).

Note: probably we need to move this discussion to I485 thread, any moderator if you agree please move this to I485 documents thread.


I know it is not mandatory to send tax returns, W2 and pay stubs to file I-485. My lawyer is not asking for those documents and also insists that we should not send them more documents than they require. Wanted to put this on the blog and get a feel of what other lawyers r doing. So all who became current. r your lawyers asking for these documents?

[tackle]

I know it is not mandatory to send tax returns, W2 and pay stubs to file I-485. My lawyer is not asking for those documents and also insists that we should not send them more documents than they require. Wanted to put this on the blog and get a feel of what other lawyers r doing. So all who became current. r your lawyers asking for these documents?

These are the documents that my lawyers sent:
Primary Applicant:


Filing fee in the amount of $1,070.00
Forms G-28, I-485 and G-325A
Forms G-28 and I-765
Forms G-28 and I-131
I-140 Approval Notice
Letter from applicant's employer verifying the permanent offer of employment.
Copy of applicant's most recent I-94 Arrival/Departure Record evidencing lawful admission to the U.S.
Copy of the applicant's current passport and any prior passports
Copies of the applicant's status documents evidencing immigration history and current lawful nonimmigrant status in the US.

Copy of I-20 forms (both: The initial one with SEVIS barcode & the second one that was issued when applying for OPT)
Copy of EAD from OPT
Copy of all H1-B approval notices.


Copy of applicant's birth certificate.
Form I-693 sealed medical examination results
Six passport photos.


Dependant


Filing fee in the amount of $1,070.00
Forms G-28, I-485 and G-325A
Forms G-28 and I-765
Forms G-28 and I-131
Spouse's I-140 Approval Notice
Letter from applicant's spouse's employer verifying the permanent offer of employment.
Copy of applicant's most recent I-94 Arrival/Departure Record evidencing lawful admission to the U.S.
Copy of the applicant's current passport and any prior passports
Copies of the applicant's status documents evidencing immigration history and current lawful nonimmigrant status in the US.

Copy of H4 extension approval notice.


Copy of applicant's birth certificate.
Copy of applicant's marriage certificate.
Form I-693 sealed medical examination results
Six passport photos.



As you can see, no pay-stubs or w2 forms were included. So, if your lawyers say they are not needed, then don't worry about it.

[GCKnowHow]

I know it is not mandatory to send tax returns, W2 and pay stubs to file I-485. My lawyer is not asking for those documents and also insists that we should not send them more documents than they require. Wanted to put this on the blog and get a feel of what other lawyers r doing. So all who became current. r your lawyers asking for these documents?

I think W2 is not mandatory for I-485, but most people send it though. The reason why its not mandatory is employment based GC is for future employment. It's ironic that people leave as soon as GC process completes. Gurus, Am I right???

[srd4gc]

FYI...my lawyer asked for w2 and paystubs...i guess it's not compulsory but some lawyers request these docs as a backup or they are trying to ensure we don't get an RFE...

[vizcard]

I wouldn't send anything more than asked for upfront. You have to assume that the lawyers know what they are doing (although sometimes its really hard ... Fragomen I'm talking to you). There's no harm in keeping the extra docs (paystubs, tax returns, etc) ready but don't send them unless asked for. I know I would be pissed off if someone sent me more than I asked for and have to take them out myself.

[ravisekhar]

I did my masters here and was on OPT for 1 year.

For the question 11 "Have you ever before applied for employment authorization from USCIS ?

if i say yes should i enter the information from 1 Year OPT card or from the current H1 approval

Applied USCIS Office
Applied Date
Result



Employment Authorization Info

[vizcard]

I did my masters here and was on OPT for 1 year.

For the question 11 "Have you ever before applied for employment authorization from USCIS ?

if i say yes should i enter the information from 1 Year OPT card or from the current H1 approval

Applied USCIS Office
Applied Date
Result



Employment Authorization Info

Follow up question - Do we absolutely need the 797 that came with the OPT or will the EAD card be sufficient ? I don't have my 797 for the OPT EAD

[qesehmk]

Was in same situation a while back. And the answer is yes.


I did my masters here and was on OPT for 1 year.

For the question 11 "Have you ever before applied for employment authorization from USCIS ?

if i say yes should i enter the information from 1 Year OPT card or from the current H1 approval

Applied USCIS Office
Applied Date
Result

Employment Authorization Info



Folks .... updated the header with my latest understanding. I haven't yet looked at the YTD consumption .... it is a bit early to do that anyway. Will take a look at consumpion trned and update in 2 weeks.

[qesehmk]

Your EAD data should be sufficient for USCIS to trace your info in their database. If I were you I wouldn't be afraid about missing that document.


Follow up question - Do we absolutely need the 797 that came with the OPT or will the EAD card be sufficient ? I don't have my 797 for the OPT EAD

[ravisekhar]

Was in same situation a while back. And the answer is yes.





Folks .... updated the header with my latest understanding. I haven't yet looked at the YTD consumption .... it is a bit early to do that anyway. Will take a look at consumpion trned and update in 2 weeks.

qesehmk,
If i say yes, where does the info for the questions( 1)Applied USCIS Office 2)Applied Date 3) Result) come from EAD(OPT) or Current H1B

[parsvnath]

What your lawyer sent you is accurate. But if you are married for less than 2 years, you need 2 documents from the following:

If you have been married for less than two years and your spouse is applying for Adjustment of Status with you,
USCIS will require documentation to verify that you have entered into and that you currently maintain a valid
marital relationship. If you have been married for less than two years, please also submit to us with your
documentation the following items:
1) Documentation showing joint ownership of property (if applicable);
2) A lease showing joint tenancy of a common residence (if applicable);
3) Documentation showing commingling of financial resources, which could include income tax returns, bank
and credit records;
4) Birth certificates of children born to you and your spouse (if applicable); and
5) Evidence of co-participation of medical or life insurance in the same insurance plan.
--------------------------------

These are the documents that my lawyers sent:
Primary Applicant:


Filing fee in the amount of $1,070.00
Forms G-28, I-485 and G-325A
Forms G-28 and I-765
Forms G-28 and I-131
I-140 Approval Notice
Letter from applicant's employer verifying the permanent offer of employment.
Copy of applicant's most recent I-94 Arrival/Departure Record evidencing lawful admission to the U.S.
Copy of the applicant's current passport and any prior passports
Copies of the applicant's status documents evidencing immigration history and current lawful nonimmigrant status in the US.

Copy of I-20 forms (both: The initial one with SEVIS barcode & the second one that was issued when applying for OPT)
Copy of EAD from OPT
Copy of all H1-B approval notices.


Copy of applicant's birth certificate.
Form I-693 sealed medical examination results
Six passport photos.


Dependant


Filing fee in the amount of $1,070.00
Forms G-28, I-485 and G-325A
Forms G-28 and I-765
Forms G-28 and I-131
Spouse's I-140 Approval Notice
Letter from applicant's spouse's employer verifying the permanent offer of employment.
Copy of applicant's most recent I-94 Arrival/Departure Record evidencing lawful admission to the U.S.
Copy of the applicant's current passport and any prior passports
Copies of the applicant's status documents evidencing immigration history and current lawful nonimmigrant status in the US.

Copy of H4 extension approval notice.


Copy of applicant's birth certificate.
Copy of applicant's marriage certificate.
Form I-693 sealed medical examination results
Six passport photos.



As you can see, no pay-stubs or w2 forms were included. So, if your lawyers say they are not needed, then don't worry about it.

[srd4gc]

I know we don't have to pay for the EAD for the first time as the 485 fees would cover EAD and AP. Could someone please let me know how many years the first time EAD would be valid for?

[Jan2008]

Just by receiving EAD/AP you dont move into that status unless you change form (I dont recollect exact name of the form...but this is form you fill with HR when you joj company or when alien's status chanegs) to reflect this change. Why not attempt stamping H1 and keep EAD/AP as backup? Also, please make sure you check all your options with a competent immigration lawyer.

Thanks, Suninphx- You are always a big help

My best friend (works for a big company here- direct employment) went to India this year April and got stuck for 3 months for no absolute reason. I don't want to get stuck in the same situation hence I want to evaluate my option of using EAD/AP. I don't mind coming back as a parolee so long as I don't get questioned at POE. I have all clear papers.. was never out of job.. and had no issues in H1 renewals. I have seen people going through mess despite the fact that they have all the papers and good employers to back the details. I would have no issues to get my stamping done.. but my commitments here are delicate (house, work and family) that if I get stuck there for more than a week.. things will get pretty ugly here.

I will check with my lawyer to see if there would be any issues in using EAD/AP. But thanks for the prompt response :)

[nayekal]

Thanks, Suninphx- You are always a big help

My best friend (works for a big company here- direct employment) went to India this year April and got stuck for 3 months for no absolute reason. I don't want to get stuck in the same situation hence I want to evaluate my option of using EAD/AP. I don't mind coming back as a parolee so long as I don't get questioned at POE. I have all clear papers.. was never out of job.. and had no issues in H1 renewals. I have seen people going through mess despite the fact that they have all the papers and good employers to back the details. I would have no issues to get my stamping done.. but my commitments here are delicate (house, work and family) that if I get stuck there for more than a week.. things will get pretty ugly here.

I will check with my lawyer to see if there would be any issues in using EAD/AP. But thanks for the prompt response :)

This is what I found through my Attorney...
If you don't H1 Visa Stamp and you have got AP, he recommends me to go for Visa stamping. As per him, I can still use AP to come back, but after that I will be
considered as parolee and the expiry date of my legal status will be that of what I have got in my AP, but not H1.
This is ok, for guys with an expiration date on H1 lesser than the exp date on AP. You can as well apply for H1 using your I-140 and once you get a new H1, your status will change from parolee to H1.
But, if your AOS is under process when you are in parolee status, by chance (God forbid) AOS App is denied, then your AP will be canceled and you will start accruing out of status days.

[ravisekhar]

qesehmk,
If i say yes, where does the info for the questions( 1)Applied USCIS Office 2)Applied Date 3) Result) come from EAD(OPT) or Current H1B

To answer my own question. The information should be from EAD(OPT)

[suninphx]

Thanks, Suninphx- You are always a big help

My best friend (works for a big company here- direct employment) went to India this year April and got stuck for 3 months for no absolute reason. I don't want to get stuck in the same situation hence I want to evaluate my option of using EAD/AP. I don't mind coming back as a parolee so long as I don't get questioned at POE. I have all clear papers.. was never out of job.. and had no issues in H1 renewals. I have seen people going through mess despite the fact that they have all the papers and good employers to back the details. I would have no issues to get my stamping done.. but my commitments here are delicate (house, work and family) that if I get stuck there for more than a week.. things will get pretty ugly here.

I will check with my lawyer to see if there would be any issues in using EAD/AP. But thanks for the prompt response :)

Hey np.

Only catch would be if you go for stamping and retain your passport. Let us all know what your lawyer adviced.

[asankaran]

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-11-15/2011-11-15.html Latest newsletter. There is talk of HR 3012 becoming law!!

[vizcard]

If you go for visa stamping and get "stuck" do you get your passport back ? I didn't think you got it back. In which case have AP doesn't matter does it. You wouldn't be able to travel. What am I missing ?

[suninphx]

If you go for visa stamping and get "stuck" do you get your passport back ? I didn't think you got it back. In which case have AP doesn't matter does it. You wouldn't be able to travel. What am I missing ?

Based on what I read on other forums they dont retain passport in every case. And thats what the 'catch' I was mentioing about in my post.

[Reader]

Deleted......

[romanitaly]

I have my approval notice that I received along with my EAD (OPT) but my lawyer did not include it in my i-485 packet.
--

Your EAD data should be sufficient for USCIS to trace your info in their database. If I were you I wouldn't be afraid about missing that document.

[krodhityogi]

"Job Title" Question:
Folks, since we are asking questions on completing the different forms, I had one on filling out the Job Title in the G325A/I-485 form. My job title on 485 is going to be different from what I put in my PERM application. However, the Job Duties and location are similar. Is this going to be a problem? Anything extra that I need to do to alleviate the risk of an RFE because of this? I looked up on Google, but wanted to see if people here have any first hand info.
Thanks in advance.
Regards

[mygctracker]

My Lawyer asked for latest W2, latest Tax Returns and 2 months Pay slips.

Hope it helps.


Based on what I have read, joint tex returns are good to have (not essential) if you have a spouse as dependent. Recent pay stubs are good to have along with EVL. W2s, though not essential again, are a small bit of paper with significant information - so good to have again. I would rather that you have more supporting docs (well arranged, with a good cover letter listing them in order) than get an RFE for something.

[imdeng]

Based on my recent interactions with VFS for my own passport retained by the US Embassy for visa correction - the Embassy will NOT keep your passport if you ask them to return it to you. In case you ask for your passport back then once they have finished their process - then they will ask you to resubmit your passport for necessary action.


If you go for visa stamping and get "stuck" do you get your passport back ? I didn't think you got it back. In which case have AP doesn't matter does it. You wouldn't be able to travel. What am I missing ?

[Waiting4Ever]

Where is the reference to HR 3012? I read through the entire article and couldn't find the reference.


http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-11-15/2011-11-15.html Latest newsletter. There is talk of HR 3012 becoming law!!

[soggadu]

gurus.... please advice on this....
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?254-on-EAD-but-H4-problem&p=13879#post13879

[tackle]

What your lawyer sent you is accurate. But if you are married for less than 2 years, you need 2 documents from the following:

If you have been married for less than two years and your spouse is applying for Adjustment of Status with you,
USCIS will require documentation to verify that you have entered into and that you currently maintain a valid
marital relationship. If you have been married for less than two years, please also submit to us with your
documentation the following items:
1) Documentation showing joint ownership of property (if applicable);
2) A lease showing joint tenancy of a common residence (if applicable);
3) Documentation showing commingling of financial resources, which could include income tax returns, bank
and credit records;
4) Birth certificates of children born to you and your spouse (if applicable); and
5) Evidence of co-participation of medical or life insurance in the same insurance plan.
--------------------------------

This is interesting. I've never seen this mentioned anywhere. Can you please give me a reference for this? Was this mentioned by your lawyers or is this specified in any official USCIS documents?

[tonyromo]

Teddy/KD, my understanding from previous discussion on the forum was that for 2007 spec/veni/others used EB2:EB3 ratio as 60:40. So with 60:40 ratio in the first half of 2007 we have PERM = number of I-485, we should have more I-485 per perm if that ratio increases to 70:30 or say 75:25.

Now I want to present some more interesting data which solidifies that we have 70:30 EB2:EB3 ratio even in first half of 2007 and not 60:40. So your point that this does not cancel each other may be true. I think we should only concentrate on EB2:EB3 ratio for India as for china the ratio I calculated turned out to be 86:14. I took data from Jan 5 inventory.

p.s : We need to take this data with a pinch of salt as Spec always tells us inventory do not represent whole universe of demand. CP cases as well as those in local offices are not counted in the inventory.

---------------EB2-I-----EB3-I-----EB23I-------EB2I %-----------EB23IC----EB2IC%
Oct----------1747------1043------2790--------0.626164875----3639-------0.681231107
Nov---------1737------1181------2918--------0.595270733----3680------0.65326087
Dec---------1881------1045------2926--------0.642857143----3779------0.701508336
Jan----------1540------693-------2233--------0.689655172----2960------0.741216216
Feb---------1444------650-------2094--------0.689589303----2791------0.737728413
Mar---------1404------651-------2055--------0.683211679----2834------0.736062103
Apr---------1420------590-------2010--------0.706467662----2675------0.758504673
May-------- 1070------567-------1637--------0.653634698----2217------0.716734326
Jun-------- 1272------486-------1758--------0.723549488----2390------0.765690377


Teddy, I had replied to Tony's message earlier. But did not get further discussion. Please see below and let me know if my thinking has valid grounds in your opinion.

Tony, based on the evidence presented by you, I would agree with you and say that my ratio is optimistic. The reason I was going for a ratio less than one is that in the last four years their has not been the support of EAD which was there for pre-July2007 filers, the recession and people going back & that wasn't the case in pre-July2007, people filing multiple PERMS due to job changes without an EAD.

More people filing in EB2 is already accounted in the higher ratio of EB2:EB3 and should not be used to compensate for demand destruction.

In spite of these factors, I agree with you and say, the ratio to be taken is 1.0

[tonyromo]

Teddy/Nishant/others,

Quick question on assumption that CO wants 30K demand. Why 30 K ? If USCIS is issuing EADs for 2 years shouldn't CO be collecting 2 years demand ?


Friends many of you have questions on the current trend. Here are my thoughts. Thanks to Veni & Spec for the perm data compilation and to Nishant2200, Suninphx, Kd2008, Kanmani and most importantly tonyromo for all their thoughts and calculations The summary below is a product of collective efforts..
- The current consumption is 8.5K; this is based on the fact that the October demand data showed 8.5K and looks like all preadjudicated cases from Jul 2007 are approved now. The demand data came down to 2.5K in Nov, interestingly China was higher than India which is also fine because China had higher filing by NIW in Jul 2007 than India.
- Porting I believe is just 3K per annum in fact the effective reduction in the EB3 inventory shows even less. The perm computations suggest that they may result in ~ 2200 EB2 I485's per month. So lets approximate this to 2500 per month. With 8 months of intake from Jul 15 to Mar 15 the intake this far has been 20K.
- This means CO is still short of the 30K mark which we believe is last year’s SOFAD. There will be no movement in the next bulletin only if they intend to have a 0 buffer or expect less than 30K SOFAD.
- I believe there is a very realistic chance of another forward movement in the next VB anywhere from 2-4 months based on 5-10K additional intake.
- Some of you have questions when I will get my GC; I believe realistically it should take 3 months for the batch that filed in Oct 2011. For the rest I believe the dates will certainly have to be retrogressed for orderly approval by PD. We would start to see the approvals for the Oct 2011 batch by Dec 2011.
I would encourage everyone to freely post their observations, findings and experiences which could help all of us to know what is happening, especially approvals.

[imdeng]

I saw the same argument on trackitt - but I do not see the linkage between EAD and PD movement. In fact, DoS (which sets the PD) has nothing to do with EAD (which exists in USCIS universe). Had EAD been valid for 5 years, would DoS be looking to keep a 5 year demand?? Not really - so why two years. I believe the purpose of the current buildup is to finish the FY smoothly without any spillover related visa wastage. For doing that CO needs one years demand plus a buffer. If you think that EB2I will get a max of say 35K in a year, plus 5K buffer - then you have a projected buildup of 40K. Building any more is not necessary and does not fit with the generally agreed cautious nature of CO's decision making so far.

I imagine the pattern is set as follows:

A) Keep an inventory of 30-40K for USCIS to pre-adjudicate by say Mar of every year
B) Do Quarterly (or monthly, or continuous, who knows what is happening this year) spillover to avoid sudden spike in consumption
C) Use up as much inventory as possible to ensure no visa number being wasted in the fourth quarter spillover to end the FY smoothly
D) Use the first few months on the FY (Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb) to build up an inventory of 30-40K
E) Move to Step A

This is a healthy pattern which meets everybody's needs within the current context. I think CO's office has handled this beautifully so far.


Teddy/Nishant/others,

Quick question on assumption that CO wants 30K demand. Why 30 K ? If USCIS is issuing EADs for 2 years shouldn't CO be collecting 2 years demand ?

[tonyromo]

Thanks imdeng for detailed explanation ! It makes sense.


I saw the same argument on trackitt - but I do not see the linkage between EAD and PD movement. In fact, DoS (which sets the PD) has nothing to do with EAD (which exists in USCIS universe). Had EAD been valid for 5 years, would DoS be looking to keep a 5 year demand?? Not really - so why two years. I believe the purpose of the current buildup is to finish the FY smoothly without any spillover related visa wastage. For doing that CO needs one years demand plus a buffer. If you think that EB2I will get a max of say 35K in a year, plus 5K buffer - then you have a projected buildup of 40K. Building any more is not necessary and does not fit with the generally agreed cautious nature of CO's decision making so far.

I imagine the pattern is set as follows:

A) Keep an inventory of 30-40K for USCIS to pre-adjudicate by say Mar of every year
B) Do Quarterly (or monthly, or continuous, who knows what is happening this year) spillover to avoid sudden spike in consumption
C) Use up as much inventory as possible to ensure no visa number being wasted in the fourth quarter spillover to end the FY smoothly
D) Use the first few months on the FY (Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb) to build up an inventory of 30-40K
E) Move to Step A

This is a healthy pattern which meets everybody's needs within the current context. I think CO's office has handled this beautifully so far.

[veni001]

Teddy/Nishant/others,

Quick question on assumption that CO wants 30K demand. Why 30 K ? If USCIS is issuing EADs for 2 years shouldn't CO be collecting 2 years demand ?

tonyromo,
Since we don't have any precedence for this kind of intake, it's any one's guess until we see EB2 retro at some point or some insight from CO in the VB.

[Jonty Rhodes]

In future, this may increase the backlog for China in EB categories along with India. I think making HR 3012 Bill in to a law makes even more sense. I hope that someone makes house and senate members aware of the number of international students from India and China in US compared to the yearly green cards they can get under these unfair country caps.

The math is simple. More students from India and China = More Indian and Chinese students applying for jobs in US companies = Requirement of higher number of green cards for India and China. This is no rocket science and anybody with a sane mind should be able to understand it.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Fewer-Indian-students-in-US-but-more-Americans-here/articleshow/10732835.cms

[vizcard]

Teddy/Nishant/others,

Quick question on assumption that CO wants 30K demand. Why 30 K ? If USCIS is issuing EADs for 2 years shouldn't CO be collecting 2 years demand ?

30K is a rounding of expected SOFAD... ~24.5K SO and 5.6K alloted. A higher or lower SO or additional buffer will move that number up or down. As Veni pointed out, there is no precedent for this but it logically makes sense.

[Nishant_imt]

here is what i brought back from my lawyer today.


1. i can get h1 extended in any case based on approved i 140.... whether i work for same organization or a new one. that too in any state.

2. if i move back to Richmond before 485 is filed, my greencard processing is valid. this is even after branch office is closed because the address while filing was that of the client location which still exists.

3. she suggested to file another labor right away from my current location which also happens to be my company's headquarters. once new 140 is approved, both will be valid and i will be able to capture my priority date.

4. if i decide to be back to Richmond, i don't necessarily work for the same client, even though that's the address on my previous filing.






thanks deepak , i am also going to get in touch with my lawyer on Monday. in the mean while keep me updated if you learn anything new.

Originally Posted by dce.deepak
Nishant,

My company also moved to a different location and shut down its office in perm location but I continue to work with a different client near the perm location. As Veni mentioned that GC is for future I think if we can get a employment letter during 485 which says that the location mentioned on perm (same geographical area) will be the location then it probably will work.
Its always good to check with lawyer. I will also try to get in touch with some lawyer and update you.

[qesehmk]

Great! Thanks for sharing.
here is what i brought back from my lawyer today.


1. i can get h1 extended in any case based on approved i 140.... whether i work for same organization or a new one. that too in any state.

2. if i move back to Richmond before 485 is filed, my greencard processing is valid. this is even after branch office is closed because the address while filing was that of the client location which still exists.

3. she suggested to file another labor right away from my current location which also happens to be my company's headquarters. once new 140 is approved, both will be valid and i will be able to capture my priority date.

4. if i decide to be back to Richmond, i don't necessarily work for the same client, even though that's the address on my previous filing.

[imdeng]

The proportion of students that go back after graduating is considered quite high for China compared to India. Plus, Chinese students usually look for PhD+Academia+EB1 route rather than MS/MBA+IT/Businesses+EB2 route that Indian students usually take. Although the math is still undeniable, EB category will remain an India+China+EverybodyElse scenario. HR3012 makes complete sense for this context.


In future, this may increase the backlog for China in EB categories along with India. I think making HR 3012 Bill in to a law makes even more sense. I hope that someone makes house and senate members aware of the number of international students from India and China in US compared to the yearly green cards they can get under these unfair country caps.

The math is simple. More students from India and China = More Indian and Chinese students applying for jobs in US companies = Requirement of higher number of green cards for India and China. This is no rocket science and anybody with a sane mind should be able to understand it.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Fewer-Indian-students-in-US-but-more-Americans-here/articleshow/10732835.cms

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy/KD, my understanding from previous discussion on the forum was that for 2007 spec/veni/others used EB2:EB3 ratio as 60:40. So with 60:40 ratio in the first half of 2007 we have PERM = number of I-485, we should have more I-485 per perm if that ratio increases to 70:30 or say 75:25.

Now I want to present some more interesting data which solidifies that we have 70:30 EB2:EB3 ratio even in first half of 2007 and not 60:40. So your point that this does not cancel each other may be true. I think we should only concentrate on EB2:EB3 ratio for India as for china the ratio I calculated turned out to be 86:14. I took data from Jan 5 inventory.

p.s : We need to take this data with a pinch of salt as Spec always tells us inventory do not represent whole universe of demand. CP cases as well as those in local offices are not counted in the inventory.

---------------EB2-I-----EB3-I-----EB23I-------EB2I %-----------EB23IC----EB2IC%
Oct----------1747------1043------2790--------0.626164875----3639-------0.681231107
Nov---------1737------1181------2918--------0.595270733----3680------0.65326087
Dec---------1881------1045------2926--------0.642857143----3779------0.701508336
Jan----------1540------693-------2233--------0.689655172----2960------0.741216216
Feb---------1444------650-------2094--------0.689589303----2791------0.737728413
Mar---------1404------651-------2055--------0.683211679----2834------0.736062103
Apr---------1420------590-------2010--------0.706467662----2675------0.758504673
May-------- 1070------567-------1637--------0.653634698----2217------0.716734326
Jun-------- 1272------486-------1758--------0.723549488----2390------0.765690377

Tony I have always believed in the 75 - 25 EB2 - Eb3 ratio. The data for the first half of 2007 showed an excellent correlation of 1 between perm and I485 as you tabulated. The ratio of 1 also indicates that significant demand destruction is always in play. I believe higher demand destruction post Jul 2007 will be compensated by higher NIW due to slow perm + higher EB2 - EB3 ratio. The ratio of Eb2 to Eb3 definitely becomes more skewed when there is higher demand from China. 30K is the estimated SOFAD for FY 2011 and under the expectation that we may see similar SOFAD this year that becomes the implicit ball park target for the intake. Let’s see how well the 2.5K per month all inclusive estimate works out by looking at some of the inventories / demand data releases assuming no approvals occur.

[polapragada]

Guys .. My friends PD is Aug 04, 2007 filed back in 2007..application is in pre adjudicated status..He did not get the approval yet..
So he is pressing all panic buttons! Any advise? Have you guys seen any AUG, 2007 approvals?

And In trackit I am not seeing any approvals from last 4-5 days...Does this mean the regular quota of numbers comes to an end for the season and have to wait till yearly/next quarter SO happens?

[tackle]

Guys .. My friends PD is Aug 04, 2007 filed back in 2007..application is in pre adjudicated status..He did not get the approval yet..
So he is pressing all panic buttons! Any advise? Have you guys seen any AUG, 2007 approvals?

And In trackit I am not seeing any approvals from last 4-5 days...Does this mean the regular quota of numbers comes to an end for the season and have to wait till yearly/next quarter SO happens?

So, he became current on Nov 1? It has only been couple of weeks. I understand that his application is already in pre adjudicated status. Still, in my opinion, 2 weeks is hardly any time for the visa numbers to drip through the bureaucracy.

[suninphx]

Tony I have always believed in the 75 - 25 EB2 - Eb3 ratio.The data for the first half of 2007 showed an excellent correlation of 1 between perm and I485 as you tabulated. The ratio of 1 also indicates that significant demand destruction is always in play. I believe higher demand destruction post Jul 2007 will be compensated by higher NIW due to slow perm + higher EB2 - EB3 ratio. The ratio of Eb2 to Eb3 definitely becomes more skewed when there is higher demand from China. 30K is the estimated SOFAD for FY 2011 and under the expectation that we may see similar SOFAD this year that becomes the implicit ball park target for the intake. Let’s see how well the 2.5K per month all inclusive estimate works out by looking at some of the inventories / demand data releases assuming no approvals occur.

That's big assumption IMHO...but we can go with that till we see actual data.

[Jan2008]

Thanks, Suninphx- You are always a big help

My best friend (works for a big company here- direct employment) went to India this year April and got stuck for 3 months for no absolute reason. I don't want to get stuck in the same situation hence I want to evaluate my option of using EAD/AP. I don't mind coming back as a parolee so long as I don't get questioned at POE. I have all clear papers.. was never out of job.. and had no issues in H1 renewals. I have seen people going through mess despite the fact that they have all the papers and good employers to back the details. I would have no issues to get my stamping done.. but my commitments here are delicate (house, work and family) that if I get stuck there for more than a week.. things will get pretty ugly here.

I will check with my lawyer to see if there would be any issues in using EAD/AP. But thanks for the prompt response :)

One more question, Can my spouse travel on EAD/ AP? She holds an H1.. came here on H4 but like me never visited India. Has pretty clean record with working with a good firm. Do you see any issue here?

[TeddyKoochu]

That's big assumption IMHO...but we can go with that till we see actual data.

I agree we really need to see the actual data, you would agree that early 2007 did also see demand destruction if we assume a significantly higher destruction post Jul 2007 the ratio goes below 1 and we IMHO enter very optimistic territory. Agree let’s see how 2.5K (All inclusive) flat per month works out.

[leo07]

This bill has good chances of passing before end of this CY

[asankaran]

Which bill ? House or senate ? Any insider information

This bill has good chances of passing before end of this CY

[leo4ever]

This bill has good chances of passing before end of this CY

Leo, did you read any positive news about the HR or S bill or its your opinion? I tried to look for but i did not find any substantial news.

[cantwaitlonger]

USCIS has updated processing times on Nov 14.
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processingTimesDisplay.do

[immitrickz]

Guys -

I need your honest input on my predicament. My PD is 11/02/2009 EB2I and i have an approved I-140. I am in my 8th yr on H1; got it stamped till 2013 July (when it expires).
I am stuck at my current 'Job' and honestly i get this rush to jump on to a new company and start afresh with H1, Labor, I-140.
I know that this whole transition takes around 8 months - give or take and ~10k out of pocket (H1,Labor, I-140), if i get onboard a consulting firm.

Question is - What's the best course of action? Do you think, i 'suck it in' and continue where i am till Oct 2012, when we have a better sense of where things stand with PD movement or pursue new opportunities right away?
Wouldn't that be too late to switch in Oct 2012, considering that i will have less time to go through the whole - H1,Labor, I-140 cycle in 9 months(before July 2013)?.
I dont have any offers at present and i am pretty confident i will get one when i start the hunt.


appreciate your feedback..

Cheers,

[kd2008]

Tony I have always believed in the 75 - 25 EB2 - Eb3 ratio. The data for the first half of 2007 showed an excellent correlation of 1 between perm and I485 as you tabulated. The ratio of 1 also indicates that significant demand destruction is always in play. I believe higher demand destruction post Jul 2007 will be compensated by higher NIW due to slow perm + higher EB2 - EB3 ratio. The ratio of Eb2 to Eb3 definitely becomes more skewed when there is higher demand from China. 30K is the estimated SOFAD for FY 2011 and under the expectation that we may see similar SOFAD this year that becomes the implicit ball park target for the intake. Let’s see how well the 2.5K per month all inclusive estimate works out by looking at some of the inventories / demand data releases assuming no approvals occur.

Teddy, I looked at EB2-NIW data for India on trackitt I-485 and I-140 tracker. Yes, there are extraordinary number of applications in July 2007 but beyond that there are hardly any to warrant attention. And most EB2-NIW also try their hand in EB1A category. So data is inconclusive and as you say we will have to wait and see. May be the Jan 2012 USCIS inventory will shed light on the ratio we are looking out to nail down.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Guys -

I need your honest input on my predicament. My PD is 11/02/2009 EB2I and i have an approved I-140. I am in my 8th yr on H1; got it stamped till 2013 July (when it expires).
I am stuck at my current 'Job' and honestly i get this rush to jump on to a new company and start afresh with H1, Labor, I-140.
I know that this whole transition takes around 8 months - give or take and ~10k out of pocket (H1,Labor, I-140), if i get onboard a consulting firm.

Question is - What's the best course of action? Do you think, i 'suck it in' and continue where i am till Oct 2012, when we have a better sense of where things stand with PD movement or pursue new opportunities right away?
Wouldn't that be too late to switch in Oct 2012, considering that i will have less time to go through the whole - H1,Labor, I-140 cycle in 9 months(before July 2013)?.
I dont have any offers at present and i am pretty confident i will get one when i start the hunt.


appreciate your feedback..

Cheers,


Take the job.

With your PD, you're not going to be current this FY under any scenario except for HR3012/SR1857. You'll be back in this spot (I140 pproved waiting on I485) before your date becomes current.

Your biggest risk is ability to renew H1 past July 2013. For that, as long as you've applied for PERM pre July 2012 you'll be fine (or alternatively have received the I140 before July 2013, but that has more risk attached to it). To file your PERM pre July 2012, you'll need to move jobs immediately (before Feb/Mar 2012 in any case).

And if HR3012/SR1857 passes, you'll probably not be delayed by more than a few months that it takes you to clear your PERM as you can cofile your I140/485. The cost of the application I don't have enough information to comment on. In my case, if I switched jobs the difference in pay/happiness quotient would more than make up for the cost of processing the GC.

Hope that helps.

[imdeng]

In general I think it is a good idea to take an opportunity when one presents itself. You are far enough from the PD right now and will probably not be current until sometime in 2013 - could even get delayed until the end of 2013. With an approved I-140, you should not have a trouble extending your H1 when you need to - and if you shift in time then you will be ready to catch your PD when it becomes current sometime (hopefully early) in 2013.


Guys -

I need your honest input on my predicament. My PD is 11/02/2009 EB2I and i have an approved I-140. I am in my 8th yr on H1; got it stamped till 2013 July (when it expires).
I am stuck at my current 'Job' and honestly i get this rush to jump on to a new company and start afresh with H1, Labor, I-140.
I know that this whole transition takes around 8 months - give or take and ~10k out of pocket (H1,Labor, I-140), if i get onboard a consulting firm.

Question is - What's the best course of action? Do you think, i 'suck it in' and continue where i am till Oct 2012, when we have a better sense of where things stand with PD movement or pursue new opportunities right away?
Wouldn't that be too late to switch in Oct 2012, considering that i will have less time to go through the whole - H1,Labor, I-140 cycle in 9 months(before July 2013)?.
I dont have any offers at present and i am pretty confident i will get one when i start the hunt.


appreciate your feedback..

Cheers,

[asankaran]

I would suggest wait till you see the next i-485 inventory report and also demand data in Feb/March. Currently no one has complete picture of demand data post July 2007. If I were you, I would wait for 2-3 months to see how far the dates could move for FY 2012. Also, you have the hassle and cost of reapplying for Labor, I-140 etc..

Guys -

I need your honest input on my predicament. My PD is 11/02/2009 EB2I and i have an approved I-140. I am in my 8th yr on H1; got it stamped till 2013 July (when it expires).
I am stuck at my current 'Job' and honestly i get this rush to jump on to a new company and start afresh with H1, Labor, I-140.
I know that this whole transition takes around 8 months - give or take and ~10k out of pocket (H1,Labor, I-140), if i get onboard a consulting firm.

Question is - What's the best course of action? Do you think, i 'suck it in' and continue where i am till Oct 2012, when we have a better sense of where things stand with PD movement or pursue new opportunities right away?
Wouldn't that be too late to switch in Oct 2012, considering that i will have less time to go through the whole - H1,Labor, I-140 cycle in 9 months(before July 2013)?.
I dont have any offers at present and i am pretty confident i will get one when i start the hunt.


appreciate your feedback..

Cheers,

[immitrickz]

Would i get a 3 yr H1 extn with an approved I-140 with a new sponsor or an extn till July 2013?

[leo07]

Opinion formulated by reading various articles and websites over the course of a month :)

Leo, did you read any positive news about the HR or S bill or its your opinion? I tried to look for but i did not find any substantial news.

[leo07]

3 year extension even with a new employer.

Would i get a 3 yr H1 extn with an approved I-140 with a new sponsor or an extn till July 2013?

[leo07]

yes. It's Too early to call anything. All the number crunching, research and everything must wait for dust to settle down. ( 2-3 months)

I would suggest wait till you see the next i-485 inventory report and also demand data in Feb/March. Currently no one has complete picture of demand data post July 2007. If I were you, I would wait for 2-3 months to see how far the dates could move for FY 2012. Also, you have the hassle and cost of reapplying for Labor, I-140 etc..

[leo07]

No insider information.

Which bill ? House or senate ? Any insider information

[vizcard]

Which bill ? House or senate ? Any insider information

Unless you know the bill sponsors personally and possibly a few others, there's no way of knowing when and if anything will be passed. Let them go through the process and if it passes then great. Websites are full of rumors and false advertising by law firms.

[immitrickz]

I am sorry to bring this up again. What's the consensus? If the Current approved I-140 can be used to extend H1 for 3 more years with the new employer, is the risk that Pedro mentioned really a risk?- "Your biggest risk is ability to renew H1 past July 2013. For that, as long as you've applied for PERM pre July 2012 you'll be fine (or alternatively have received the I140 before July 2013, but that has more risk attached to it). To file your PERM pre July 2012, you'll need to move jobs immediately (before Feb/Mar 2012 in any case). "

Pedro - I am just trying to get a clear picture. I am under the exact impression as you laid it. But seems like 3yr H1 extension is possible with the new employer with an approved I-140 from prev employer.

or am i missing something?

[leo07]

I don't completely agree here. Not all websites are full of rumors, it depends on where you look. lawfirm websites are not usually the place for this kind of news. WSJ,TheHill,HuffingtonPost,Rollcall,politico, drudgereport etc are fairly reliable. Of course there's bias based on where these papers fall on the Left-Center-Right spectrum. it's up to you how to skim through the bias and get the news as the news.

Unless you know the bill sponsors personally and possibly a few others, there's no way of knowing when and if anything will be passed. Let them go through the process and if it passes then great. Websites are full of rumors and false advertising by law firms.

[RRRRRR]

Hi All,


My I140 was approved in 2009 by company X and in later half of 2009 the company was bought by Company Y(AS a complete entity and all office locations stay the same) in later half of 2009. Now my Priority Date is current and i am filing my 485 but the lawyer came back and said that they will have to file an amendment of 140 along with this since the 140 is from company X. I requested them if we can do a premium processing of 140 and they said they cannot do it because they do not have the Original Labor.

My understanding is Original Labor is sent while filing the first 140 and i am not sure if USCIS sends it back once the 140 is approved. If they do not send it then i guess an amended 140 will always have to go through a normal processing time which does not make sense to me unless USCIS returns the original Labor.

According to them if i do PP of 140 then application may get denied as for I140 Premium original labor should be attached with the application.

Thanks for your help and for looking at this. I will remove this from the thread once it gets answered.

[wantgcnow]

Hi All,


My I140 was approved in 2009 by company X and in later half of 2009 the company was bought by Company Y(AS a complete entity and all office locations stay the same) in later half of 2009. Now my Priority Date is current and i am filing my 485 but the lawyer came back and said that they will have to file an amendment of 140 along with this since the 140 is from company X. I requested them if we can do a premium processing of 140 and they said they cannot do it because they do not have the Original Labor.

My understanding is Original Labor is sent while filing the first 140 and i am not sure if USCIS sends it back once the 140 is approved. If they do not send it then i guess an amended 140 will always have to go through a normal processing time which does not make sense to me unless USCIS returns the original Labor.

According to them if i do PP of 140 then application may get denied as for I140 Premium original labor should be attached with the application.

Thanks for your help and for looking at this. I will remove this from the thread once it gets answered.

Recently My company was acquired another company and soon after the acquisition , my company immigration lawyer filed for I-140 amendment . I got the approval within 3 months. No premium processing.

[RRRRRR]

Recently My company was acquired another company and soon after the acquisition , my company immigration lawyer filed for I-140 amendment . I got the approval within 3 months. No premium processing.

Thanks watgcnow for your reply, any idea at which center your I140 was filed.

[leo07]

I was trying to find the question in your post. You seem to have all the correct information. What's the question?
I'll pitch in with what I know as I have gone through similar lane.
- PP is not possible for I-140 amendment. Reason being, original labor that you attached to your previous I-140 would have been moved to USCIS 'Archive' location. CIS will not have immediate access to your labor in order to finish the processing under 15 days.
- your attorney must have told you that PP will be rejected, PP fee will be returned and the application will be processed under regular processing. Application WILL NOT BE denied just because you filed the amendment in PP.

Hope it helps!


Hi All,


My I140 was approved in 2009 by company X and in later half of 2009 the company was bought by Company Y(AS a complete entity and all office locations stay the same) in later half of 2009. Now my Priority Date is current and i am filing my 485 but the lawyer came back and said that they will have to file an amendment of 140 along with this since the 140 is from company X. I requested them if we can do a premium processing of 140 and they said they cannot do it because they do not have the Original Labor.

My understanding is Original Labor is sent while filing the first 140 and i am not sure if USCIS sends it back once the 140 is approved. If they do not send it then i guess an amended 140 will always have to go through a normal processing time which does not make sense to me unless USCIS returns the original Labor.

According to them if i do PP of 140 then application may get denied as for I140 Premium original labor should be attached with the application.

Thanks for your help and for looking at this. I will remove this from the thread once it gets answered.

[wantgcnow]

Thanks watgcnow for your reply, any idea at which center your I140 was filed.

It was vermont service center

[leo07]

There is a post-485 filing thread for this :)

Guys, I can certainly understand urgent stuff posted on this thread. But can we create a separate thread for all such questions.

[srd4gc]

this question is mostly for ppl in full time position...is ur company covering your spouse's legal (lawyer) and uscis fees or just your expenses?

[bieber]

Ever since last bulletin is released, this thread became Q & A instead of predictions & calculations