EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[leo07]

It has not happened before. So take that off your mind and enjoy the weekend. you may get the GC next month, but you will not get the weekend that you will lose thinking about it :)

[jackbrown_890]

has anybody seen an overnight posting of VB.... or I am just being too desperate ?

Not on DOS website but i have in the past on Mumbai Consulate website (its morning over there) before DOS website. But I do not expect it tonight because is it already Saturday in India.
We will just have to wait till Monday.

[nishant2200]

Ron's tidbit:

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/charles-oppenheim-eb-2-china-and-india-will-advance-significantly-15576/index4.html

"Actually, they are hoping that the USCIS will do its job. More and more, in recent years, we have see cutoff dates advanced in order to qualify more CP applicants so that the State Department can step in and pick up the slack left by the USCIS. It is interesting that the U.S. Consulate in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico processes as many immigrant cases by itself as the USCIS processes EB AOS cases. Those particular consular cases are also much more time intensive because a very large percentage of them involve waivers. Think about it: One consular post, by itself, handles as many green card applications as the entire USCIS handles EB cases. That is the root cause of the problem. We don't need more USCIS adjudicators; we need adjudicators who are willing to work and who know what they are doing.

This should also serve as an object lesson for folks who are trying to decide which processing path to elect. Each summer, thousands of EB applicants with more recent priority dates get green cards through consular processing while AOS applicants with older priority dates continue to sit and wait. Why? Because the State Department has to advance cutoff dates in order to make up for the fact that the USCIS isn't adjudicating cases fast enough to exhaust the quota. The choice is either to give green cards to people with more recent dates and at least get them off the waiting list, or do nothing and see visa numbers wasted. "

Also as per his office, they have got lots of fee invoices for Q1 2008 guys, I have seen this info scattered all across his forum from para legals and his ownself. I don't know man, I think the VO that supposedly gives heads up to NVC, isn't CO the main guy at the VO, who is in charge of all this. The NVC theory may not be trash after all. Maybe we are putting in too much science behind all this. I dont completely agree with Ron, I mean visa numbers have not been wasted since last few years, but he continually points out a lack of trust between USCIS and DOS.

[krishnav]

It has not happened before. So take that off your mind and enjoy the weekend. you may get the GC next month, but you will not get the weekend that you will lose thinking about it :)

Very well said!!

[imdeng]

What are the chances that when we get a handle on post 07/07 EB2IC demand in future demand data, it will turn out to be smaller than the 2K per month we have been assuming based on PERM data? I am specifically talking about preponement of some demand to July and Aug 2007 to fit into the deadline and also the demand destruction of non-EAD folks that must have happened because of recession.

I have a feeling that late 2007 and 2008 EB2IC demand is going to show up lower than our anticipation. We will know more in a couple months.

BTW - I am coming around to the view espoused by Gurus that what we are seeing here is a monthly spillover (we can also think of it as a continuous spillover) regime within the 27% Category Quarter Cap.

[nishant2200]

In my opinion, we shall have to wait and see. No way out.

QSP also explains why china E2 demand reduction was less than india E2, bcoz any SO is in order of PD allocation. It also explains why dates are being moved together for both. I think CO will do a mix of QSP n annual SO. In intake mode, he will do QSP so that it keeps USCIS also happy coz it stops ppl from harassing them with Sr congress inquiry etc. but when he has his intake he will pause n let USCIS take over n decide what they want focus on, us or backlog.


What are the chances that when we get a handle on post 07/07 EB2IC demand in future demand data, it will turn out to be smaller than the 2K per month we have been assuming based on PERM data? I am specifically talking about preponement of some demand to July and Aug 2007 to fit into the deadline and also the demand destruction of non-EAD folks that must have happened because of recession.

I have a feeling that late 2007 and 2008 EB2IC demand is going to show up lower than our anticipation. We will know more in a couple months.

BTW - I am coming around to the view espoused by Gurus that what we are seeing here is a monthly spillover (we can also think of it as a continuous spillover) regime within the 27% Category Quarter Cap.

[qesehmk]

That's pretty much shooting from the hip. I do not believe DoS can or will do any such thing nor do i think that matters much.

Some of these lawyers have realized that "Prediction" is a good game to increase their own visibility. While sometimes they give us good insight into DoS USCIS, its better to ignore their analysis which is many times tainted with self interest.


Ron's tidbit:

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/charles-oppenheim-eb-2-china-and-india-will-advance-significantly-15576/index4.html

"Actually, they are hoping that the USCIS will do its job. More and more, in recent years, we have see cutoff dates advanced in order to qualify more CP applicants so that the State Department can step in and pick up the slack left by the USCIS. It is interesting that the U.S. Consulate in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico processes as many immigrant cases by itself as the USCIS processes EB AOS cases. Those particular consular cases are also much more time intensive because a very large percentage of them involve waivers. Think about it: One consular post, by itself, handles as many green card applications as the entire USCIS handles EB cases. That is the root cause of the problem. We don't need more USCIS adjudicators; we need adjudicators who are willing to work and who know what they are doing.

This should also serve as an object lesson for folks who are trying to decide which processing path to elect. Each summer, thousands of EB applicants with more recent priority dates get green cards through consular processing while AOS applicants with older priority dates continue to sit and wait. Why? Because the State Department has to advance cutoff dates in order to make up for the fact that the USCIS isn't adjudicating cases fast enough to exhaust the quota. The choice is either to give green cards to people with more recent dates and at least get them off the waiting list, or do nothing and see visa numbers wasted. "

Also as per his office, they have got lots of fee invoices for Q1 2008 guys, I have seen this info scattered all across his forum from para legals and his ownself. I don't know man, I think the VO that supposedly gives heads up to NVC, isn't CO the main guy at the VO, who is in charge of all this. The NVC theory may not be trash after all. Maybe we are putting in too much science behind all this. I dont completely agree with Ron, I mean visa numbers have not been wasted since last few years, but he continually points out a lack of trust between USCIS and DOS.

[yesman]

bieber, my scary memory, common sense, survival instinct, cut copy n paste: this has shaped up my professional growth so far. Most of the stuff I did in engineering can be put to trash.
I'd have added "google" to that list :)

[ravisekhar]

http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2011/11/nfap-report-l-1-denials-in-india-are-soaring.html

[nishant2200]

http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2011/11/nfap-report-l-1-denials-in-india-are-soaring.html

Will certainly nip the rising EB1C trend. Another one showing declining immigration trend:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Applications-for-Benefits/applications-for-benefits-2011-sep.pdf

At this point our only problem is 140 backlog, but if new incoming declines it may very well be a balancing act and days of 30k SOFAD show signs of lingering. Another black horse is demand density, will it be 2k, 2.5k or 3k.

[Trident]

Gurus, Thanks for all your advice for filing my 485. Did that in the first week of October and actually completed FP last week. My PD is in 1st week of June.

Reading last couple of pages I got the impression they might even issue GC for my case in Jan / Feb..Is that true or am I reading it wrong ( we read what we would like to ?? :))

Good luck for the Dec bulletin (especially Nishant !). Monday morning would be my vote...Thanks folks,

[nishant2200]

Yes that's correct, if he continues QSP. Also that is why my advice to people is make sure application is as perfect can be to best of ur knowledge, and apply with everything needed and reviewed, dont just rush into it to make it on first day. An RFE could cause you to miss valuable QSP and delay things.

Monday is my vote at least for demand data. I dont have question that dates will move or not, but the thing to see is length of movement.

Thanks for ur wishes. Freedom!


Gurus, Thanks for all your advice for filing my 485. Did that in the first week of October and actually completed FP last week. My PD is in 1st week of June.

Reading last couple of pages I got the impression they might even issue GC for my case in Jan / Feb..Is that true or am I reading it wrong ( we read what we would like to ?? :))

Good luck for the Dec bulletin (especially Nishant !). Monday morning would be my vote...Thanks folks,

[Trident]

I have been there...Offcourse every one goes through this...Butterflies flying in the stomach every second you are awake with all the expectations..You will get it dude ...freedom and peace :)

Thanks for the reply.

[qesehmk]

Based on vote for last month - we donated 80 dollars to AID. We have 51 more to give. Waiting for Nalgonda project to confirm their US non-profit status.

For next month the poll is modified to add akshayapatra. Please vote and help us make a small difference.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made/page2

[nishant2200]

Observations from various websites and trackitt.

I firmly believe now that QSP on a monthly allocation basis is in play. All preadjudicated folks post July 15th 2007 are getting approvals. This trend has picked up steam now, with news more and more trickling from Nov 3rd. I think on the November 4th, CO has finally done the allocation state decision of the visas for november, and this should be reflected in the demand data, that I am pretty sure now he will release on the Nov 7th Monday. Unless any PWMB have also become quickly qualified in 2 months, the demand data should show close to nil for EB2 I/C. Or if few show up, they will be allocated next month, and they would surely be PWMB or a few who were pending on an RFE. Read further below.

Supposing 10k new folks as posited by Teddy become qualified eventually from Nov VB, let me add 3 months for that as best case, so they get qualified in March 2012. Also suppose the PWMB start getting qualified from December VB (some of the folks in Oct VB would be PWMB, and the PWMB folks in Nov VB would get qualified in January VB). Projection of PWMB is 2.5 k again credit to Teddy and other gurus.

Hence, since November allocation is done by CO, now as long as he is able to conjure up 2.5k allocation for PWMB of Oct and Nov VB; then in the December, January and February, he should be able to move dates, grab applications, and not forced to retrogress due to any pressure from USCIS. (Notice how he said in AILA meeting significant movement between now and February - this matches up). Since he has been able to do QSP on monthly basis on a much larger scale than 2.5k a month in the first two months, I think doing 2.5k in two parts, one in Dec for Oct VB qualified PWMB, and then in January for Nov VB qualified PWMB should not be a very difficult effort.

I think the ability to do QSP on monthly basis has allowed CO to do staggered and measured movements in beginning of FY to make inventory, rather than doing a single BTM and then retrogress.

Let me know holes in this so that we can refine.

ps: Teddy, the QSP on monthly allocation, based on our conversation, seemed wild guess at first, but it is turning true. Dude lets apply to CO for a job.

[suninphx]

Observations from various websites and trackitt.

I firmly believe now that QSP on a monthly allocation basis is in play. All preadjudicated folks post July 15th 2007 are getting approvals. This trend has picked up steam now, with news more and more trickling from Nov 3rd. I think on the November 4th, CO has finally done the allocation state decision of the visas for november, and this should be reflected in the demand data, that I am pretty sure now he will release on the Nov 7th Monday. Unless any PWMB have also become quickly qualified in 2 months, the demand data should show close to nil for EB2 I/C. Or if few show up, they will be allocated next month, and they would surely be PWMB or a few who were pending on an RFE. Read further below.

Supposing 10k new folks as posited by Teddy become qualified eventually from Nov VB, let me add 3 months for that as best case, so they get qualified in March 2012. Also suppose the PWMB start getting qualified from December VB (some of the folks in Oct VB would be PWMB, and the PWMB folks in Nov VB would get qualified in January VB). Projection of PWMB is 2.5 k again credit to Teddy and other gurus.

Hence, since November allocation is done by CO, now as long as he is able to conjure up 2.5k allocation for PWMB of Oct and Nov VB; then in the December, January and February, he should be able to move dates, grab applications, and not forced to retrogress due to any pressure from USCIS. (Notice how he said in AILA meeting significant movement between now and February - this matches up). Since he has been able to do QSP on monthly basis on a much larger scale than 2.5k a month in the first two months, I think doing 2.5k in two parts, one in Dec for Oct VB qualified PWMB, and then in January for Nov VB qualified PWMB should not be a very difficult effort.

I think the ability to do QSP on monthly basis has allowed CO to do staggered and measured movements in beginning of FY to make inventory, rather than doing a single BTM and then retrogress.

Let me know holes in this so that we can refine.

ps: Teddy, the QSP on monthly allocation, based on our conversation, seemed wild guess at first, but it is turning true. Dude lets apply to CO for a job.

So whats your guess on where dates would be at end of FY2012?

[indiasunil]

So whats your guess on where dates would be at end of FY2012?

Will be around June 2008.

:)

[nishant2200]

Will be around June 2008.

:)

I have put on first page present feeling. Will update in future as situation gets clearer.

[indiasunil]

I have put on first page present feeling. Will update in future as situation gets clearer.

You mean Mar.2008 ? Its already clear till Mar. 2008, ofcourse, further movement depends on intake. But my feeling, surely will go another 2 to 3 months.

[nishant2200]

You mean Mar.2008 ? Its already clear till Mar. 2008, ofcourse, further movement depends on intake. But my feeling, surely will go another 2 to 3 months.

Read my post on first page, not Q.

[vizcard]

Nishant had June 08. I just hope it goes to August-end.., selfishly ofcourse :)

[Jonty Rhodes]

I understand that most of us, in last few days, have gone through the news of the AILA conference with Mr. CO and possible advancement of dates to March 1st, 2008 for EB2I and EB2C and further advancement of dates in January 2012 and February 2012 visa bulletins.

I came across this article and it has this table showing advancement of dates till November 1st, 2008 in February visa bulletin. The dates are remaining stagnant for most of the Spring, 2012 with eventual retrogression in Summer, 2012 according to this table.

Can Gurus throw more light on this? Is this prediction of November 1, 2008 just an assumption pulled out of the hat or based on a serious calculation? I am in doubt especially because it is coming from an immigration law-firm who may have their own personal agenda (Get more EB3 Porting business). :confused:

What are your calculations saying, Gurus? With eventual retrogression looming, how far do you think the dates would retrogress? My PD is in May, 2011 but if the prediction (assumed or calculated) is true, I would be really happy because it would provide a lot of relief to our fellow EB2I and EB2C. :)

Here is the link.

http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x/152118/Labour+Relations/Visa+Office+Predicts+Significant+Movement+For+EB2+ India+China+But+EB3+India+Stuck+In+Neutral

[vizcard]

I understand that most of us, in last few days, have gone through the news of the AILA conference with Mr. CO and possible advancement of dates to March 1st, 2008 for EB2I and EB2C and further advancement of dates in January 2012 and February 2012 visa bulletins.

I came across this article and it has this table showing advancement of dates till November 1st, 2008 in February visa bulletin. The dates are remaining stagnant for most of the Spring, 2012 with eventual retrogression in Summer, 2012 according to this table.

Can Gurus throw more light on this? Is this prediction of November 1, 2008 just an assumption pulled out of the hat or based on a serious calculation? I am in doubt especially because it is coming from an immigration law-firm who may have their own personal agenda (Get more EB3 Porting business). :confused:

What are your calculations saying, Gurus? With eventual retrogression looming, how far do you think the dates would retrogress? My PD is in May, 2011 but if the prediction (assumed or calculated) is true, I would be really happy because it would provide a lot of relief to our fellow EB2I and EB2C. :)

Here is the link.

http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x/152118/Labour+Relations/Visa+Office+Predicts+Significant+Movement+For+EB2+ India+China+But+EB3+India+Stuck+In+Neutral

Can you summarize. The site needs registration. Based on what you have suggested so far, I believe this is a guesstimate. In none of the calculations here has Nov 2008 come up as a plausible scenario and neither has any intelligence/rumor come out that supports this.

It could very well be lawyers trying to ... ahem .... be lawyers.

Edit: I suppose they are presuming a 4 month jump in Jan and Feb too. That's where they get Nov 2008. Again this is without registering or reading the full article.

[Feb2008]

United States: Visa Office Predicts Significant Movement For EB-2 India & China; But EB-3 India Stuck In Neutral
05 November 2011
Article by Valentine A. Brown
inShare Twitter Facebook Digg

Last week, Charles Oppenheim, the man behind the mysterious Visa Bulletin curtain, also known as Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division of the Department of State, made some significant predictions regarding priority date movement in the coming months.

The best news came for Indian and Chinese nationals in the EB-2 category. For these individuals, Mr. Oppenheim predicted that priority dates would be advanced "significantly" over the next few visa bulletins. He indicated that "significantly" could mean a four month jump to March 1, 2008 for the December bulletin, and that this trend could continue into the January and February 2012 bulletins. He also predicted that EB-2 for the Rest of the World (ROW) category will remain current throughout 2012.

The worst news came for Indian nationals in the EB-3 category. Mr. Oppenheim predicted that the category will remain stagnant throughout the year. This is due to the per country limitations placed on each visa category, which for Indians in EB-3 amounts to only 3000 green cards per year. The queue in this category is estimated at 210,000, thus making a 70 year wait, "plausible" according to Oppenheim. There is some hope on the horizon for persons in EB-3 due to pending legislation, which would eliminate the per country limitation. See my previous blog on this topic for more information.

Although the news is not as bad for Chinese nationals in EB-3,- a steady advancement of one to three weeks per month for the next several months - it still means long waits for visa numbers for applicants in this category. The wait may be shorter for those EB-3 applicants in the ROW category, as Oppenheim predicts a 3-4 week movement per month for the next several months. The chart below demonstrates what these advancements might look like over the next seven months. Please note that this is only a prediction, but may help applicants prepare their finances, travel plans and documentation for possible filing of adjustment of status applications.

Dec '11
Jan '12
Feb '12
Mar '12
Apr '12
May '12
June '12

EB-2 India & China
03/01/2008
07/01/2008
11/01/2008
11/01/2008
11/01/2008
11/01/2008
Possible Retrogression

EB-3 China
09/12/2004
10/3/2004
10/24/2004
11/14/2004
12/5/2004
12/26/2004
01/15/2005

EB-3 India
07/22/2002
07/22/2002
08/01/2002
08/01/2002
08/15/2002
08/15/2002
08/22/2002

EB-3 ROW
01/22/2006
02/15/2006
03/15/2006
04/07/2006
04/21/2006
05/15/2006
06/04/2006


Number crunching by the Visa Office is a difficult business. As explained by Oppenheim, it is a guessing game for several reasons; (1) it is impossible to identify the exact number of people in the queue because the number of spouses and minor children who will be counted against the visa numbers are unknown until they actually apply for a visa number. This has been especially the case in EB-3, as the long waits have increased, applicants' families have grown. (2) Visa numbers are not actually requested until the end of the green card application process, leaving a 6 month lag time between priority date movement and actual visa allocation by the State Department. This problem is what often leads to the retrogression in the priority dates.

Oppenheim stated that retrogression of EB-2 for India and China is a good possibility in the Summer of 2012, due to the inexact science of visa number usage estimation. Oppenheim's theory is that he will advance the numbers significantly in the early part of the Fiscal Year, develop a queue for visa numbers, hold the dates steady from March 2012-June 2012, to allow USCIS to catch up with visa allocation then retrogress in June 2012 or later if necessary. Even though retrogression is unnerving to those affected by it, it is a better result than having precious visa numbers unused and then lost forever if they are not allocated before 9/30/2012. Based upon this timeline, it is possible that there could be additional EB-2 movement in September 2012 to ensure that all of the numbers are used before the fiscal year ends on September 30, 2012.

With the possibility of retrogression, it is important to get I-485 applications filed in the first month of visa availability.

Just like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, we have been fooled before by the Visa Office, so there is no use in getting too excited by the good news, as it means that certain applicants will be able to file their green card applications earlier than they might have previously thought. But for those Indian nationals in EB-3 who have been debating whether to do the necessary to refile in EB-2, this confirms their worst fears, and suggests that all steps necessary to get in to EB-2 be initiated, the sooner the better.

We are prepared to handle the anticipated significant movement in the EB-2 China and India Categories. Please contact us if we can be of any assistance.

This article is for general information and does not include full legal analysis of the matters presented. It should not be construed or relied upon as legal advice or legal opinion on any specific facts or circumstances. The description of the results of any specific case or transaction contained herein does not mean or suggest that similar results can or could be obtained in any other matter. Each legal matter should be considered to be unique and subject to varying results. The invitation to contact the authors or attorneys in our firm is not a solicitation to provide professional services and should not be construed as a statement as to any availability to perform legal services in any jurisdiction in which such attorney is not permitted to practice.

Duane Morris LLP, a full-service law firm with more than 700 attorneys in 24 offices in the United States and internationally, offers innovative solutions to the legal and business challenges presented by today's evolving global markets. Duane Morris LLP, a full-service law firm with more than 700 attorneys in 24 offices in the United States and internationally, offers innovative solutions to the legal and business challenges presented by today's evolving global markets. The Duane Morris Institute provides training workshops for HR professionals, in-house counsel, benefits administrators and senior managers.





Can you summarize. The site needs registration. Based on what you have suggested so far, I believe this is a guesstimate. In none of the calculations here has Nov 2008 come up as a plausible scenario and neither has any intelligence/rumor come out that supports this.

It could very well be lawyers trying to ... ahem .... be lawyers.

Edit: I suppose they are presuming a 4 month jump in Jan and Feb too. That's where they get Nov 2008. Again this is without registering or reading the full article.

[nishant2200]

Guys, I didn't want to jump in here, but couldn't stop after seeing the tables of duane morris!

"Just like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, we have been fooled before by the Visa Office, so there is no use in getting too excited by the good news, as it means that certain applicants will be able to file their green card applications earlier than they might have previously thought. But for those Indian nationals in EB-3 who have been debating whether to do the necessary to refile in EB-2, this confirms their worst fears, and suggests that all steps necessary to get in to EB-2 be initiated, the sooner the better."

This basically sums it up. They want to get clients, by pointing out that EB3 is doomed, we will help you with porting, jump aboard. They also make themselves unaccountable of prediction by saying we have been fooled by VO before.

Everyone is trying to put words in CO's mouth. My feeling is all we can take home is: Significant movement possible between December and February. And an extrapolation would be CO is aware of need to make inventory.

I am certain that next VB is the only one in which he is a bit blind, but from then on, he will have a fair estimate of expected density. Come December, when he has to decide January VB, he will know: a. How many people from July 15th 2007 to Nov 1st 2007 applied in November b. How many preadjudicated applications for July 15th 2007 to August 15th 2007 were there (this one he already knows in demand data).

The main point is we don't know what is his targeted inventory. Is it possible he is just targeting the maximum possible? If yes, then he can just make current, or do jumps of a year, why 3-4 months at a time. It's not to oblige USCIS's workload, that would be a small part of it, I feel it's mainly because he wants a controlled staggered intake as well as a controlled staggered preadjudicated queue appearing in demand data, and hence he can also start new FY with appropriate amount of inventory, not too less, not too more, so that his QSP trick can work.

ps: I am not blasting this though, it's always good to share information you find, so that people can put their analysis and views on it! Keep on finding..

[nishant2200]

This is it. Anytime next 4 days. All calculations predictions, logic, has no meaning now; Whatever CO does will be the truth. Last time rdsingh found DD at 6.52 am and VB at 12.12 pm PST.

I hope the wait ends tomorrow!

[soggadu]

New week .... New numbers.... New news.... All the best guys.....

[TheTexan]

Reminds me of the Mech Engg's results @ Mumbai univ....all the best to everyone...

[venkimakthal]

I see many approval from EB2I in trackitt on Nov 3(8 Approved) and Nov 4(11 Approved), in which 8 of them are between July 15-July 31.

[gc_usa]

This is it. Anytime next 4 days. All calculations predictions, logic, has no meaning now; Whatever CO does will be the truth. Last time rdsingh found DD at 6.52 am and VB at 12.12 pm PST.

I hope the wait ends tomorrow!


People with PD in 2009 or later 2008 has meaning. You will be current for sure in next 2 VB max but there are thousands who needs prediction who are in same state where you were last year.

[qblogfan]

Most of these people filed in 2007, but the wave was so strong in this weekend and may guys got approvals on Sunday morning!

I counted them and the number is from 40-60. I think the 2007 fiasco cases will be cleared by this month!


Woow !, thats great news, are here any PWMB case approvals as well for people who just filed last month.

[qblogfan]

yes, CO is unpredictable. I hope all the wish comes true!

Let's keep fingers crossed!


This is it. Anytime next 4 days. All calculations predictions, logic, has no meaning now; Whatever CO does will be the truth. Last time rdsingh found DD at 6.52 am and VB at 12.12 pm PST.

I hope the wait ends tomorrow!

[nishant2200]

People with PD in 2009 or later 2008 has meaning. You will be current for sure in next 2 VB max but there are thousands who needs prediction who are in same state where you were last year.

Dude I meant for this couple of days, there is no point in speculation.

[Kanmani]

Qblogfan

Did you find any approval with PD in August 2007 ?

[vizcard]

People with PD in 2009 or later 2008 has meaning. You will be current for sure in next 2 VB max but there are thousands who needs prediction who are in same state where you were last year.

I think Nishant meant that unless we get more demand or VB info, it's meaningless to have any realistic calculations. Otherwise it's pure speculation which this forum is not about. When we get data, you can bet that there will be a lot more discussion and "meaningful" calculations /predictions.

[suninphx]

Dude I meant for this couple of days, there is no point in speculation.

We will need a separate thread just to 'congratulate Nishant' whenever he becomes current :). And really hope that happens today

[qblogfan]

I didn't see a single August 2007 case.

Some people discussed on mitbbs and said the cut off of 140 was July 2007 or sth?

I don't know why August 2007 cases are not being approved.


Qblogfan

Did you find any approval with PD in August 2007 ?

[venkimakthal]

I didn't see a single August 2007 case.

Some people discussed on mitbbs and said the cut off of 140 was July 2007 or sth?

I don't know why August 2007 cases are not being approved.

May towards end of this month we may see approvals from Aug 2007.

[Sudheer]

This is my first post and this is specifically to Teddy, Nishant and Qblogfan (The number crunchers).

So far for EB2-I, on trackitt only 132 cases are reported during October and November. To me this number is very low as the priority date range in from 15th April to 1st November. If we assume 7% as trackitt ratio for EB2-I, the total number of new application is just 1886. If that is true, then it is very optimistic sign for people with PD in 2008. Any inputs from you guys?

Month "Priority Dt Range" .... "Total", "In Range" ,"Ports","PWMBs", "New", "7%", "5%"
-------- ------------------- ------- -------- ----------- -------- --------- ------ ------- -------
Oct, 11 15th Apr - 15th Jul.... 70....... 62........... 4........ 66........ 0...... 1000..1400
Nov, 11 15th Jul - 30th Oct.... 62....... 61........... 1........ 15....... 47...... 886.. 1240
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
..........................................132..... .............................................. 1886..2640

[bieber]

Q, Teddy, Nishanth

do you guys know where Spec is now a days?

[TeddyKoochu]

This is my first post and this is specifically to Teddy, Nishant and Qblogfan (The number crunchers).

So far for EB2-I, on trackitt only 132 cases are reported during October and November. To me this number is very low as the priority date range in from 15th April to 1st November. If we assume 7% as trackitt ratio for EB2-I, the total number of new application is just 1886. If that is true, then it is very optimistic sign for people with PD in 2008. Any inputs from you guys?

Month "Priority Dt Range" .... "Total", "In Range" ,"Ports","PWMBs", "New", "7%", "5%"
-------- ------------------- ------- -------- ----------- -------- --------- ------ ------- -------
Oct, 11 15th Apr - 15th Jul.... 70....... 62........... 4........ 66........ 0...... 1000..1400
Nov, 11 15th Jul - 30th Oct.... 62....... 61........... 1........ 15....... 47...... 886.. 1240
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
..........................................132..... .............................................. 1886..2640

The Trackitt ratio's keep changing with time. The intersting thing about this time duration is that people have just filed so the numbers may pick up. The trackitt ratios have varied all the way from 5 - 30 based on the opinions of several individuals. Its a little early to read anything based on them.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q, Teddy, Nishanth

do you guys know where Spec is now a days?

Bieber we have all not heard from Spec in a while. We are all missing his company, commentary and valuable inputs.

[tackle]

Pardon my ignorance, but what's the consensus on Trackitt? Do we extrapolate the numbers from Trackitt to get a reasonable number? I ask this because I do not have a trackitt account (neither do any of my friends) and so trackitt does not track any of our applications. The numbers from Trackitt are fully based on user submitted records, isn't it?



This is my first post and this is specifically to Teddy, Nishant and Qblogfan (The number crunchers).

So far for EB2-I, on trackitt only 132 cases are reported during October and November. To me this number is very low as the priority date range in from 15th April to 1st November. If we assume 7% as trackitt ratio for EB2-I, the total number of new application is just 1886. If that is true, then it is very optimistic sign for people with PD in 2008. Any inputs from you guys?

Month "Priority Dt Range" .... "Total", "In Range" ,"Ports","PWMBs", "New", "7%", "5%"
-------- ------------------- ------- -------- ----------- -------- --------- ------ ------- -------
Oct, 11 15th Apr - 15th Jul.... 70....... 62........... 4........ 66........ 0...... 1000..1400
Nov, 11 15th Jul - 30th Oct.... 62....... 61........... 1........ 15....... 47...... 886.. 1240
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
..........................................132..... .............................................. 1886..2640

[pdmay2008]

In my opinion the more time it takes to get the demand data or VB, the less the movement beyond Mar 1 2008. If CO would have made up his mind already, he releases it today itself.

Gurus what are your thoughts.

[bieber]

In my opinion the more time it takes to get the demand data or VB, the less the movement beyond Mar 1 2008. If CO would have made up his mind already, he releases it today itself.

Gurus what are your thoughts.
It may work quite opposite, the later they collect the demand data higher will be the number of approvals, so close to zero demand

[pdmay2008]

It may work quite opposite, the later they collect the demand data higher will be the number of approvals, so close to zero demand

I agree with you in that perspective.

But the more he waits for the number of filings after Nov 1 2011, he gets more apps into pipeline. Which makes him decide how much more he needs in pipeline.

[doctorp]

I agree with you in that perspective.

But the more he waits for the number of filings after Nov 1 2011, he gets more apps into pipeline. Which makes him decide how much more he needs in pipeline.

i do not think so, because it takes atleast 7-10 days for USCIS to release a receipt notice, so unless he is going to wait till the end of this week, it is unlikely that USCIS will be able to tell him the precise number of applications received ... thought i am surprised as to why the delay, ...

[pdmay2008]

i do not think so, because it takes atleast 7-10 days for USCIS to release a receipt notice, so unless he is going to wait till the end of this week, it is unlikely that USCIS will be able to tell him the precise number of applications received ... thought i am surprised as to why the delay, ...

In that cases he does not even get a chance to look at how many new cases after Nov 1st 2011. He should make a guess based on historical data.

[vizcard]

I've said this before. I don't get why people are so anxious. what happens will happen. Keep your documents ready and wait for it. No need to get all worked up.

[mesan123]

Been Away for a while...had a nice india trip...got visa stamped with no issues in chennai...dates did move last month...so many pages to catch up ha...congrats to my friends who became current...Soggadu bhai congrats...hoping nishanth will become current this bulletin :)

[Tomtuat]

Hi Guys,

Just thought of sharing this story...I hope it's ok to post here. If not, please delete it.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/07/health/cancer-family-setbacks/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

http://newmomnewcancer.blogspot.com

-Tom

[doctorp]

this is cruel, they should have a set date for the VB to come out, this coming soon thing is on for 7 days, i am refreshing the webpage every 3 mins..

[cbpds1]

maybe we shd take turns instead of everyone doing F5 :)


I agree, couple of days back i written the same. Not just you every body is doing F5

[tackle]

one of my friend visa is denied, welcome back.

Care to explain why your friend's visa was denied?

[mesan123]

Well the day i went for visa many people even from consulting firms got there visa's...



Care to explain why your friend's visa was denied?

[romanitaly]

Thank you Teddy!!..waiting for VB to come thru..my PD is Nov 1 2007 :-(

[pdmay2008]

That sounds good, :), looks like no VB today either.

May be we need to check Mumbai consulate website tonight.

[tanu_75]

Damn. I was sure we would see it today. What's the deal? Thought it was pretty cut and dry for this month from what we heard. Q, your insider has any news? If not, can you hit him up and see what gives.

[PD2008AUG25]

Guys,

Is there anyway to get notification or forwards new posts from a thread to email address? I know there is thread subscription, but it requires you to visit thread after a notification.

Thanks.

[indiasunil]

Damn. I was sure we would see it today. What's the deal? Thought it was pretty cut and dry for this month from what we heard. Q, your insider has any news? If not, can you hit him up and see what gives.

My brain says today.. My heart says tomorrow.. Lets wait and see.. We will see good news tomorrow .

[soggadu]

Been Away for a while...had a nice india trip...got visa stamped with no issues in chennai...dates did move last month...so many pages to catch up ha...congrats to my friends who became current...Soggadu bhai congrats...hoping nishanth will become current this bulletin :)

hey mesan...welcome back...

[Sudheer]

tackle

I was going though trackitt trend.. For example during April to Sep 2011, we have a total of 959 cases in trackitt with status updated as approved. In the mean time we have seen a reduction of 13715 cases (result of October Pending case minus June pending cases from pending inventory). This ratio is approximately 7%. I do agree that accuracy of this kind of prediction depends much on the accuracy of sample data..

[tackle]

tackle

I was going though trackitt trend.. For example during April to Sep 2011, we have a total of 959 cases in trackitt with status updated as approved. In the mean time we have seen a reduction of 13715 cases (result of October Pending case minus June pending cases from pending inventory). This ratio is approximately 7%. I do agree that accuracy of this kind of prediction depends much on the accuracy of sample data..

It makes more sense now. Thanks for the clarification.

[leo07]

Folks,
Obvious answer, :) Read the first page of this very same thread. IMHO, you have chances to file 485 between July through October 2012.

Hi Guru's,
Asking the obvious question again, any rough estimate on when 07/08 will become current? Thank you so much for your response.
-Vik

[leo07]

I know it's nervous time. Hang in there buddy!

this is cruel, they should have a set date for the VB to come out, this coming soon thing is on for 7 days, i am refreshing the webpage every 3 mins..

[Trident]

Nishant - Bummer today....I was refreshing the VB page every 5 minutes (could not leave the old habit !). Funny, I didnt do it when my date got current in September...My friend had to call me to convey the unexpected good news ! Didnt want to raise your BP more than what you might be experiencing ! Hang in there .....There is a good vibe on this bulletin.

[nishant2200]

Nishant - Bummer today....I was refreshing the VB page every 5 minutes (could not leave the old habit !). Funny, I didnt do it when my date got current in September...My friend had to call me to convey the unexpected good news ! Didnt want to raise your BP more than what you might be experiencing ! Hang in there .....There is a good vibe on this bulletin.

Thank you :)

good vibes certainly needed. God bless CO, may he grace us all!

[leo07]

Nishanth, I'm sure you'd be through this vb. Just have to see it on official vb:)

Thank you :)

good vibes certainly needed. God bless CO, may he grace us all!

[Eb2_Dec07]

This delay is giving a reason for concern . I hope the move is as predicted by CO and really hope he keeps his word .
Gurus if he is taking long to ponder the movement this bulletin , it is definitely not a very good sign for the following months.
Also , with in my friends network a lot of people i know have initiated eb3 to eb2 porting through other consulting companies . their eb3 dates are in the range between 2005 thr 2007. Not sure how big of an impact porting will have .

[familyguy]

Hello EB2, we should remember that visa bulletin is not just EB2 I... CO has to set dates for other categories and countries as well... lets just hope that this bulletin will bring good news...


This delay is giving a reason for concern . I hope the move is as predicted by CO and really hope he keeps his word .
Gurus if he is taking long to ponder the movement this bulletin , it is definitely not a very good sign for the following months.
Also , with in my friends network a lot of people i know have initiated eb3 to eb2 porting through other consulting companies . their eb3 dates are in the range between 2005 thr 2007. Not sure how big of an impact porting will have .

[Eb2_Dec07]

Familyguy, I agree ...right now mind is playing devils workshop. Let's hope for the best :-)

[kd2008]

What happen to Spec? Where is he?

[RMS_V13]

Because of election?

Whats going on?

[meetasn]

Hi,

I have seen the following approvals in trackitt.
Doesn't it mean the PD will more than expected?

rakesh76: 07/19/2007, NSC, ------------------Approved
dxg1739 : 07/26/2007, NSC, -----------------Approved
Babugc: 07/28/2007, EB2, NSC, -----------------Approved

[nishant2200]

Because of election?

Whats going on?

AFAIK, generally election time off is only around 2 hours paid.

The two main processes that might be involved, I believe are not affected by elections.

First is CO.

Second is the contractors who open application packets, arrange in file, encash money and receipt. This is cash cow time for them and will make hay while sun shines.

We might have to wait till thursday. Murthy as well as a guy on trackitt got info from his lawyer, DOS is monitoring incoming application count.

I am not saying I believe or dont believe in this. They can surprise us anytime, worst case does seem to be thursday.

[kd2008]

Nishant, more than that CO is gauging the dependent demand. Even if you have a count of folks who might apply based on approved I-140, the dependent count is always difficult to guess. We can use a multiplier of 2.04 but CO cannot. So he will wait it out as far as he can to get a good count on the dependent load which will help him immensely going forward. I think he wants to be as accurate as possible and avoid retrogression in future.

[leo07]

Eb2_Dec07,

Technically this is not a delay at all. It's still 8th of the month. Even if it were to be released today, it's still an early release.
Hang in there. you will definitely hear good news.
Best!


This delay is giving a reason for concern . I hope the move is as predicted by CO and really hope he keeps his word .
Gurus if he is taking long to ponder the movement this bulletin , it is definitely not a very good sign for the following months.
Also , with in my friends network a lot of people i know have initiated eb3 to eb2 porting through other consulting companies . their eb3 dates are in the range between 2005 thr 2007. Not sure how big of an impact porting will have .

[suninphx]

Eb2_Dec07,

Technically this is not a delay at all. It's still 8th of the month. Even if it were to be released today, it's still an early release.
Hang in there. you will definitely hear good news.
Best!

Yes- I agree.

Delay may also mean that this VB dates will remain current for coming month.

[nishant2200]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf

I read this several times. It is perfectly clear to me looking at the bunch load of approvals, CO has already made the visa allotment for the month, he is now only waiting to decide the cut off for EB2IC it seems.


Hi,

I have seen the following approvals in trackitt.
Doesn't it mean the PD will more than expected?

rakesh76: 07/19/2007, NSC, ------------------Approved
dxg1739 : 07/26/2007, NSC, -----------------Approved
Babugc: 07/28/2007, EB2, NSC, -----------------Approved

[nishant2200]

Yes, very possible. I agree.


Nishant, more than that CO is gauging the dependent demand. Even if you have a count of folks who might apply based on approved I-140, the dependent count is always difficult to guess. We can use a multiplier of 2.04 but CO cannot. So he will wait it out as far as he can to get a good count on the dependent load which will help him immensely going forward. I think he wants to be as accurate as possible and avoid retrogression in future.

[Jan2008]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf

I read this several times. It is perfectly clear to me looking at the bunch load of approvals, CO has already made the visa allotment for the month, he is now only waiting to decide the cut off for EB2IC it seems.

Nishant bhai,

The VB has to come out today or max tomorro. Friday (11th) is Veterans day (fed holiday) and hence they cannot release anything on that day.. Its definitely either today or tomm. for sure.. You will get current and I pray so does QBF bhai :)

[nishant2200]

Nishant bhai,

The VB has to come out today or max tomorro. Friday (11th) is Veterans day (fed holiday) and hence they cannot release anything on that day.. Its definitely either today or tomm. for sure.. You will get current and I pray so does QBF bhai :)

Friend, today is tuesday, so we have wednesday and thursday also.

Positively speaking, he might be waiting so that he can extend even more than march 1st 2008, which he might be thinking a minimum. How much more he wants to think based on incoming application count or dependent factor. In fact the dependent factor sounds very plausible, theory by kd2008. You cant extrapolate incoming count that easily from few days, but dependent factor more reasonably.

The coming soon on the 1st of the month itself, cannot be relied on though. This is a bitter lesson I learnt.

[pdmay2008]

Nishant bhai,

The VB has to come out today or max tomorro. Friday (11th) is Veterans day (fed holiday) and hence they cannot release anything on that day.. Its definitely either today or tomm. for sure.. You will get current and I pray so does QBF bhai :)

Q any info from your source. I know I am not going to be current this month. I sincerely pray QBF gets current this month.

[cbpds1]

so does that mean he did not guage demand for Nov bulletin when he released it on the 5th?


Nishant, more than that CO is gauging the dependent demand. Even if you have a count of folks who might apply based on approved I-140, the dependent count is always difficult to guess. We can use a multiplier of 2.04 but CO cannot. So he will wait it out as far as he can to get a good count on the dependent load which will help him immensely going forward. I think he wants to be as accurate as possible and avoid retrogression in future.

[nishant2200]

I asked CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/10/visa-bulletin-december-2011.html and he replied, very good guy , always replies to such questions. his lawyer has been quite reliable in the recent past.

CM, if ever there was a time to know when the VB might be released, it this one :) please can your lawyer friend have some idea when he thinks VB may be released. of course its always with grain of salt, but begging to know if he has any idea at all, it would be very helpful.


CM_USNonImmigrants
Talked to him. He has no information on it but he believes it will be Thursday as DOS mentioned about getting some information on filings from last 2 bulletins before making any move.

Personally I do not know how they plan to figure this out. May be from number of incoming applications and all, but to segregate to specifics to EB2-IC level, it needs some intensive labor.

[sha_kus]

Personally I feel all the attorneys should file as little cases as possible in the 1st 10 Days so that CO hits a Panic button... Just a Dream...


I asked CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/10/visa-bulletin-december-2011.html and he replied, very good guy , always replies to such questions. his lawyer has been quite reliable in the recent past.

CM, if ever there was a time to know when the VB might be released, it this one :) please can your lawyer friend have some idea when he thinks VB may be released. of course its always with grain of salt, but begging to know if he has any idea at all, it would be very helpful.


CM_USNonImmigrants
Talked to him. He has no information on it but he believes it will be Thursday as DOS mentioned about getting some information on filings from last 2 bulletins before making any move.

Personally I do not know how they plan to figure this out. May be from number of incoming applications and all, but to segregate to specifics to EB2-IC level, it needs some intensive labor.

[TeddyKoochu]

I asked CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/10/visa-bulletin-december-2011.html and he replied, very good guy , always replies to such questions. his lawyer has been quite reliable in the recent past.

CM, if ever there was a time to know when the VB might be released, it this one :) please can your lawyer friend have some idea when he thinks VB may be released. of course its always with grain of salt, but begging to know if he has any idea at all, it would be very helpful.


CM_USNonImmigrants
Talked to him. He has no information on it but he believes it will be Thursday as DOS mentioned about getting some information on filings from last 2 bulletins before making any move.

Personally I do not know how they plan to figure this out. May be from number of incoming applications and all, but to segregate to specifics to EB2-IC level, it needs some intensive labor.

AFAIK the lock box centers are now doing all the spadework.
- They would create receipts.
- Scan all contents and forward to the service centers.
- Encash the cheques.
Last month everyone seems to have received receipts within a week, this time the cheque enacshing or receipts have happened so far only for those cases filed on the 1st. My guess is even by the 10th only 50% of the cases would actually have been receipted; probably 90% of them would have been received by that time.
Good luck to everyone once again, especially to our good friend QBF.

[vipulgupta470]

my PD is Feb 27th 2008 :-).. Sitting right on the edge based on CO's predictions..

[cbpds1]

my destiny hinges on QBF's luck, I become current if he does :)


AFAIK the lock box centers are now doing all the spadework.
.................................
Good luck to everyone once again, especially to our good friend QBF.

[MeraNoAayega]

Personally I feel all the attorneys should file as little cases as possible in the 1st 10 Days so that CO hits a Panic button... Just a Dream...

Well we should all hold filing our applications for a couple of months... that way CO will make EB2IC current.... and may be then since USCIS cannot process all these newly filed EB2IC cases, some visa numbers will be spilled to the EB3...:)

[pdmay2008]

Well we should all hold filing our applications for a couple of months... that way CO will make EB2IC current.... and may be then since USCIS cannot process all these newly filed EB2IC cases, some visa numbers will be spilled to the EB3...:)

It is not going to happen...

All of my friends who are current made sure their apps reached them on Nov 1. No one wants to miss the boat as they all have seen what it really means to their life.

That's exactly what I would do or any one else in this forum would do.

I can not find any one who want to delay their filings.

[cbpds1]

Assuming all Jun 07 cases will be approved shortly, the number of cases that CO will have for I/C from Spec's spreadsheet is

01-NOV-07 minus 01-AUG-07
16600-10314=6.2K
Porting =3K
Total 9.2K

Obviously he has to make a BTM or am I missing something?

[pdmay2008]

Assuming all Jun 07 cases will be approved shortly, the number of cases that CO will have for I/C from Spec's spreadsheet is

01-NOV-07 minus 01-AUG-07
16600-10314=6.2K
Porting =3K
Total 9.2K

Obviously he has to make a BTM or am I missing something?

01-NOV-07 minus 01-AUG-07 demand is not documentarily qualified demand. Not sure whether it shows up in the demand data or not.

[nishant2200]

ok, let's take analysis of Teddy on the numbers mixed with bit of mine, to do worst case analysis.

Oct VB, 15th april to 15th july 2007 caused 5400 reduction in demand data, 2.5k still left as preadjudicated ready to go.
Nov VB, 15th july 2007 to Nov 1st : 2.5k PWMB + 10k new applications.
I am adding 1000 more who were leftovers in late 2006 and early-mid 2007, who were not in demand data for Oct VB, due to various reasons like RFE or just slipped through the cracks, etc.

Also he started the year with around 8k ready to go, and he was comfortable consuming it with QSP. So let's assume he would be ready to have 5k buffer at least to begin the next FY 2013.

Total so far: 5400 + 2500 + 1000 + 2500 + 10000 = 21,400, let’s consider 21.5k

Going by past two years trend, CO would want 30k minimum, even not considering buffer. Lets consider 5k buffer as optional.

To grab hence:
1. 8.5k with no buffer considered and no porting
2. 5.5k with no buffer considered and 3k porting
3. 13.5k with 5k buffer considered and no porting
4. 10.5k with 5k buffer considered and 3k porting

Per the 485 inventories of past year, let's say CO has seen a 2.5k density each month for EB2IC. And since he is delaying the Dec VB release, say he looks at incoming data as well as the PWMB who filed in Nov VB, and extrapolates to a 3k density, which Teddy pointed out earlier might be possible.

Hence in above each scenario, he needs further movement of:
1. 3 month movement to 1st February 2008
2. 2 month movement to 1st January 2008
3. 4.5 months movement to 15th March 2008
4. 3.5 months movement to 15th February 2008

Please this is just some hypothetical worst case analysis, not arguing here about it should be 3k density, or 2.5 k or 2k density, or porting should be 2k or 4k and so on. It is just to drive home the point that movement is needed, only the length of the movement is to be thought about by CO. I thought a lot about posting this and was almost not posting, because I don’t want to be blamed for my PD is 11/8/2007 and am trying to prove that at least I will be current etc. Nothing is guaranteed, not even a week's move frankly speaking, until it actually happens, we cant read their minds. You can surely plug in your numbers and post what you think it can be.

I understand the concept of huge 140 backlog for EB1, EB2ROW, but CO has been comfortable to give approvals freely for Oct VB as well as Nov VB. So let's say they have used 6k + 2.5k = 8.5k visas already for EB2IC for FY 2012. So it does mean CO is banking on low demand from EB2 ROW and EB1 already. I don’t think based on pressure from USCIS that one day in this FY, they will resolve the huge backlog to some degree, hence don’t grab applications to build inventory that might be useful at end of FY in order to not waste visa numbers, CO will let this bulletin slip by.




Assuming all Jun 07 cases will be approved shortly, the number of cases that CO will have for I/C from Spec's spreadsheet is

01-NOV-07 minus 01-AUG-07
16600-10314=6.2K
Porting =3K
Total 9.2K

Obviously he has to make a BTM or am I missing something?

[TeddyKoochu]

Question for Veni & Spec

- In the Oct 2011 inventory the total for EB2 I + C is 3100, this figure does not even include PWMB's who filed later. Based on this the Jul 2007 actual figure could be much higher I would assume a significant number of PWMB's in July.

- Now if we look at the monthly perm breakdown the perms in the months subsequent to Jul 2007 are much higher so by correlation we should assume a similar or even a higher figure for these months. Await your valued inputs. The figures for subsequent months are way higher than Jul 2007. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)&p=3096#post3096

- Both yourself and Spec worked very hard to compile the perm data in the URL below. In fact this great work was the reason why facts and data was born. The sheets are simply amazing to be honest and awesome work. This question has been bothering both me and Nishant; I feel that the density in the month’s post 2007 is definitely in the excess of 2.5K probably closer to 3K. This is what CO is trying to measure by testing the waters.

[tonyromo]

We can not use July EB2 I + C number as reference point. The ratio of PERM (EB2-3 IC) to I-485 is close to 4 or 6 which is not real. Lot of Chinese guys applied in EB2 NIW during July fiasco. I remember qblogfan discussing this a while back.


Question for Veni & Spec - In the Oct 2011 inventory the total for EB2 I + C is 3100, this figure does not even include PWMB's who filed later. Based on this the Jul 2007 actual figure could be much higher I would assume a significant number of PWMB's in July.

Now if we look at the monthly perm breakdown the perms in the months subsequent to Jul 2007 are much higher so by correlation we should assume a similar or even a higher figure for these months. Await your valued inputs. The figures for subsequent months are way higher than Jul 2007.In the actual inventory is 3K + without any PWMB's.
Both yourself and Spec worked very hard to compile the perm data in the URL below. In fact this great work was the reason why facts and data was born. The sheets are simply amazing to be honest and awesome work.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)&p=3096#post3096
This question has been bothering both me and Nishant; I feel that the density in the month’s post 2007 is definitely in the excess of 2.5K probably closer to 3K. This is what CO is trying to measure by testing the waters.

[TeddyKoochu]

We can not use July EB2 I + C number as reference point. The ratio of PERM (EB2-3 IC) to I-485 is close to 4 or 6 which is not real. Lot of Chinese guys applied in EB2 NIW during July fiasco. I remember qblogfan discussing this a while back.

That’s a good point thanks. However let’s assume the PWMB will cancel the NIW cases, I don't think there could be that many NIW cases though, the Jul PWMB figure may well be 1500 + range. Still the Aug Perm figures are way higher than Jul. So if Jul is 3100 in the inventory is 3K per month a fair assumption?

[suninphx]

That’s a good point thanks. However let’s assume the PWMB will cancel the NIW cases, I don't think there could be that many NIW cases though, the Jul PWMB figure may well be 1500 + range. Still the Aug Perm figures are way higher than Jul. So if Jul is 3100 in the inventory is 3K per month a fair assumption?

3000 per month for what time range? July 2007 to ?

[suninphx]

That’s a good point thanks. However let’s assume the PWMB will cancel the NIW cases, I don't think there could be that many NIW cases though, the Jul PWMB figure may well be 1500 + range. Still the Aug Perm figures are way higher than Jul. So if Jul is 3100 in the inventory is 3K per month a fair assumption?


3000 per month for what time range? July 2007 to ?

Jan 2008 has highest number of PERMS - 2900 :o

[vizcard]

Jan 2008 has highest number of PERMS - 2900 :o

Unfortunately, the first half of 2008 is heavier than the 2nd half.

[TeddyKoochu]

Jan 2008 has highest number of PERMS - 2900 :o

Thanks, this is what the real worrying trend is. The figures for Jul are just 1000 and it resulted in 3K let’s assume PWMB and NIW cancellation. Normally NIW cases are not even 5% of the volume though so this is a highly optimistic calculation. Then in Aug we have 1700 which is a 70% increase from Jul and it accelerates to 2100 in Jan 2008 as you pointed out from the same spreadsheet. So I guess that 3K in fact is a centrist or probably optimistic figure? In fact if people have not dropped out the demand coming this month might shock CO himself.

[Kanmani]

Friends

I really want to jump into this at this point. I think Suninphx and myself always disagree over the per month calculation of Teddy and others, with no backup evidence in hand to emphasise our point of view.

3000 IC is way over too much per month total for whatever reason it is . As we dont have a real picture of duplicate perm application among us , let me try to find how many of us have multiple perms or including spouse's attached to it.

Please add your name with number of perms in the separate thread " Help us count multiple perms" here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?248-Help-us-Counting-Multiple-Perms

[cbpds1]

So does that mean CO jumped the gun and announced 01-mar-2008, only to be flooded with more applications causing him to be embarrased and is currently finding a way to come up with a good excuse that he cannot keep his promise :)


Thanks, this is what the real worrying trend is. The figures for Jul are just 1000 and it resulted in 3K let’s assume PWMB and NIW cancellation. Normally NIW cases are not even 5% of the volume though so this is a highly optimistic calculation. Then in Aug we have 1700 which is a 70% increase from Jul and it accelerates to 2100 in Jan 2008 as you pointed out from the same spreadsheet. So I guess that 3K in fact is a centrist or probably optimistic figure? In fact if people have not dropped out the demand coming this month might shock CO himself.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends

I really want to jump into this at this point. I think Suninphx and myself always disagree over the per month calculation of Teddy and others, with no backup evidence in hand to emphasise our point of view.

3000 IC is way over too much per month total for whatever reason it is . As we dont have a real picture of duplicate perm application among us , let me try to find how many of us have multiple perms or including spouse's attached to it.

Please add your name with number of perms in the separate thread " Help us count multiple perms" here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?248-Help-us-Counting-Multiple-Perms

That thread is open now, lets tabulate the responses

[pdmay2008]

So does that mean CO jumped the gun and announced 01-mar-2008, only to be flooded with more applications causing him to be embarrased and is currently finding a way to come up with a good excuse that he cannot keep his promise :)

Worst case he will keep his promise and will not move dates in Jan and Feb VBs.

Best case he will keep his promise and move dates beyond Mar 1 2008 in Dec Bulletin. And move again in Jan and Feb VBs.

Let's hope for the best.

[tonyromo]

Again I would not use Jul 2007 numbers as a reference point. Last year I pointed out some anomalies in numbers and spec/gcwait tried to give answers for them. For your reference you can find it http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2011&p=3317#post3317

I think we should use May/June data to find out PERM to I-485 ratio. Having said that I too assume that there 2.5 to 3K density for EB2IC from jul 2007 to mid 2008.


Thanks, this is what the real worrying trend is. The figures for Jul are just 1000 and it resulted in 3K let’s assume PWMB and NIW cancellation. Normally NIW cases are not even 5% of the volume though so this is a highly optimistic calculation. Then in Aug we have 1700 which is a 70% increase from Jul and it accelerates to 2100 in Jan 2008 as you pointed out from the same spreadsheet. So I guess that 3K in fact is a centrist or probably optimistic figure? In fact if people have not dropped out the demand coming this month might shock CO himself.

[suninphx]

Thanks, this is what the real worrying trend is. The figures for Jul are just 1000 and it resulted in 3K let’s assume PWMB and NIW cancellation. Normally NIW cases are not even 5% of the volume though so this is a highly optimistic calculation. Then in Aug we have 1700 which is a 70% increase from Jul and it accelerates to 2100 in Jan 2008 as you pointed out from the same spreadsheet. So I guess that 3K in fact is a centrist or probably optimistic figure? In fact if people have not dropped out the demand coming this month might shock CO himself.

So if we do a simple calculation with

70:30 (EB2:EB3) and 80% approval rate for Jan 2008 number comes to

2900*0.7*.8*2.05 = 3329

From above we need to deduct double filings, demand destructions etc.

[TeddyKoochu]

So does that mean CO jumped the gun and announced 01-mar-2008, only to be flooded with more applications causing him to be embarrased and is currently finding a way to come up with a good excuse that he cannot keep his promise :)

It’s a little early to say that but all is not well either. If he is using 2K per month then definitely he will see far more cases coming up. If CO is prepared for a large buffer he can keep his promise and also help everyone waiting to file for 485. I think his promise represents the best case scenario.
Something does not add up very well. It might be that the perm data itself is not accurate. However that time in the latter half of 2007 was a time when everyone was super excited about filing. My attempt is just to correlate and figure out what we should be expecting in this filing. Normally CO would keep getting inputs all along so there is a time lapse between when he spoke with AILA and now. It will be interesting not only to see the dates in the VB but any guidance in there. Let us await Veni & Spec's responses because both of them did great work on that spreadsheet.

[suninphx]

Friends

I really want to jump into this at this point. I think Suninphx and myself always disagree over the per month calculation of Teddy and others, with no backup evidence in hand to emphasise our point of view.

3000 IC is way over too much per month total for whatever reason it is . As we dont have a real picture of duplicate perm application among us , let me try to find how many of us have multiple perms or including spouse's attached to it.

Please add your name with number of perms in the separate thread " Help us count multiple perms" here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?248-Help-us-Counting-Multiple-Perms

Gurus- Is there anyway Trackitt data will help in this regard?

[suninphx]

It’s a little early to say that but all is not well either. If he is using 2K per month then definitely he will see far more cases coming up. If CO is prepared for a large buffer he can keep his promise and also help everyone waiting to file for 485. I think his promise represents the best case scenario.
Something does not add up very well. It might be that the perm data itself is not accurate. However that time in the latter half of 2007 was a time when everyone was super excited about filing. My attempt is just to correlate and figure out what we should be expecting in this filing. Normally CO would keep getting inputs all along so there is a time lapse between when he spoke with AILA and now. It will be interesting not only to see the dates in the VB but any guidance in there. Let us await Veni & Spec's responses because both of them did great work on that spreadsheet.

Exactly! And people did not care about if they are filing in eb2 or eb3. So actual eb2:eb3 percentage for those months is going to be interesting.

[Jan2008]

It’s a little early to say that but all is not well either. If he is using 2K per month then definitely he will see far more cases coming up. If CO is prepared for a large buffer he can keep his promise and also help everyone waiting to file for 485. I think his promise represents the best case scenario.
Something does not add up very well. It might be that the perm data itself is not accurate. However that time in the latter half of 2007 was a time when everyone was super excited about filing. My attempt is just to correlate and figure out what we should be expecting in this filing. Normally CO would keep getting inputs all along so there is a time lapse between when he spoke with AILA and now. It will be interesting not only to see the dates in the VB but any guidance in there. Let us await Veni & Spec's responses because both of them did great work on that spreadsheet.

Teddy,
My question may be stupid and please feel free not to respond if you have done so before :)

Whats the gaurantee that despite the dense apps in last quater of 2007 and early 2008, these people have stayed put will apply for 485 and have managed to hold on to their H1s? The economy has gone bad to worst in the last 4 years and I have seen so many of my friends leave the counrty and move either to India or Canada or have got their H1's rejected or something or other going wrong in the process.

What % of people do you think are still holding tight and waiting to apply 485 from latter 2007 to mid 2008 if the number in mind per month is 2500?

sometimes I feel that though the volume is high per the I-140 log.. there won't neccessarily be that many people who are still in their job and hanging in there tight? I hope my question makes sense :)

[TeddyKoochu]

So if we do a simple calculation with

70:30 (EB2:EB3) and 80% approval rate for Jan 2008 number comes to

2900*0.7*.8*2.05 = 3329

From above we need to deduct double filings, demand destructions etc.

This is quite fair to assume let’s hope that the NIW subsided drastically after Jul 2007.

[TeddyKoochu]

Again I would not use Jul 2007 numbers as a reference point. Last year I pointed out some anomalies in numbers and spec/gcwait tried to give answers for them. For your reference you can find it http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2011&p=3317#post3317

I think we should use May/June data to find out PERM to I-485 ratio. Having said that I too assume that there 2.5 to 3K density for EB2IC from jul 2007 to mid 2008.

Thanks for this posting, yes there definitely is some anomaly in the Jul 2007 figures for sure or with the perm itself it could be either way. The Jul figures do not reconcile.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
My question may be stupid and please feel free not to respond if you have done so before :)

Whats the gaurantee that despite the dense apps in last quater of 2007 and early 2008, these people have stayed put will apply for 485 and have managed to hold on to their H1s? The economy has gone bad to worst in the last 4 years and I have seen so many of my friends leave the counrty and move either to India or Canada or have got their H1's rejected or something or other going wrong in the process.

What % of people do you think are still holding tight and waiting to apply 485 from latter 2007 to mid 2008 if the number in mind per month is 2500?

sometimes I feel that though the volume is high per the I-140 log.. there won't neccessarily be that many people who are still in their job and hanging in there tight? I hope my question makes sense :)

Your question is perfect, that is why CO himself is going by testing the waters. Refer to suninphx's post he has assumed a 20% destruction factor, Spec has always assumed the same. All calculations apart the 485 actuals will be the true picture. Also we have to have 2 more factors as suninphx has used EB2 – EB3 Ratio and dependent factor. Veni had at one time given a great simplification – No of EB2 I/C 485’s is ~ Number of perms.

[suninphx]

Your question is perfect, that is why CO himself is going by testing the waters. Refer to suninphx's post he has assumed a 20% destruction factor, Spec has always assumed the same. All calculations apart the 485 actuals will be the true picture. Also we have to have 2 more factors as suninphx has used EB2 – EB3 Ratio and dependent factor. Veni had at one time given a great simplification – No of EB2 I/C 485’s is ~ Number of perms.

I agree with Venni's simplification... you can assume various factors and try plugin your own ratios...the number comes amazingly close to PERM total :)

[suninphx]

Your question is perfect, that is why CO himself is going by testing the waters. Refer to suninphx's post he has assumed a 20% destruction factor, Spec has always assumed the same. All calculations apart the 485 actuals will be the true picture. Also we have to have 2 more factors as suninphx has used EB2 – EB3 Ratio and dependent factor. Veni had at one time given a great simplification – No of EB2 I/C 485’s is ~ Number of perms.

Teddy- my calculation does not include demand destruction due to recession.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy- my calculation does not include demand destruction due to recession.

My apologies I thought the 20% included both destructions and denials. So really our individual assumptions of the factor will drive the outcome it could really vary from 2-3K. Thanks again to tony for pointing me to that discussion with Spec.

Just noticed another thing we should be reading the second spreadsheet not the first one, the first one represents only those cases approved after Aug 2007. So all in all 2007 was a fairly even year, Jul and subsequent months are fairly comparable, the later month figures are only slightly higher. Thanks to you for analyzing by this debate we may actually come up with the right figures.

[suninphx]

My apologies I thought the 20% included both destructions and denials. So really our individual assumptions of the factor will drive the outcome it could really vary from 2-3K. Thanks again to tony for pointing me to that discussion with Spec.

Just noticed another thing we should be reading the second spreadsheet not the first one, the first one represents only those cases approved after Aug 2007. So all in all 2007 was a fairly even year, Jul and subsequent months are fairly comparable.

Now that explains....I was wondering from where figures like 1100, 1700, 2100 coming from , in your post :). I am referring to correct table, I think.

[nishant2200]

Teddy, I myself got into a bit of a loop over this.

For Nov VB, is the 2.5k PWMB being considered part of the 10k incoming traffic or additional.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, I myself got into a bit of a loop over this.

For Nov VB, is the 2.5k PWMB being considered part of the 10k incoming traffic or additional.

It should be part of it, I believe you are referring to the 15th Jul - 15th Aug folks.

[TeddyKoochu]

Now that explains....I was wondering from where figures like 1100, 1700, 2100 coming from , in your post :). I am referring to correct table, I think.

You are correct on the sheet, I saw both of them initially, and the factors that we choose are quite sensitive though. Still some months are higher than Jul 2007 but it’s mostly even. Let’s try to apply different factors to Jan 2008.

Sun - 2900*0.7*.8*2.05 = 3329

Teddy - 2900 * .75 * .8 * 2.25 = 3915

So even slight deviation to the factors can use significant change. You mentioned one point that people were not concerned about category in 2007 that’s true, but most of these people especially have ported to EB2 because they have no cushion of EAD / AP. On another note I140 approvals were fairly smooth in 2007 and early 2008 when these folks would have been approved the perm part was tougher but these folks had crossed the stage by then.

[nishant2200]

It should be part of it, I believe you are referring to the 15th Jul - 15th Aug folks.

wonderful :)

let me revise my earlier post and put it, it will give an advantage of a month on that mostly.

thank you cbpds1 for bringing to my attention.

[suninphx]

You are correct on the sheet, I saw both of them initially, and the factors that we choose are quite sensitive though. Still some months are higher than Jul 2007 but it’s mostly even. Let’s try to apply different factors to Jan 2008.

Sun - 2900*0.7*.8*2.05 = 3329

Teddy - 2900 * .75 * .8 * 2.25 = 3915

So even slight deviation to the factors can use significant change. You mentioned one point that people were not concerned about category in 2007 that’s true, but most of these people especially have ported to EB2 because they have no cushion of EAD / AP. On another note I140 approvals were fairly smooth in 2007 and early 2008 when these folks would have been approved the perm part was tougher but these folks had crossed the stage by then.

Teddy thanks for your inputs. We shall know in few months.

When filing for Nov11 VB start showing in demand data? (We already had $10000 worth of dicussion on the numbers for that if you remember :) )

[nishant2200]

REPOST with correction.

ok, let's take analysis of Teddy on the numbers mixed with bit of mine, to do worst case analysis.

Oct VB, 15th april to 15th july 2007 caused 5400 reduction in demand data, 2.5k still left as preadjudicated ready to go.

Nov VB, 15th july 2007 to Nov 1st : 10k incoming, includes 2.5k PWMB

I am adding 1000 more who were leftovers in late 2006 and early-mid 2007, who were not in demand data for Oct VB, due to various reasons like RFE or just slipped through the cracks, etc.

Also he started the year with around 8k ready to go, and he was comfortable consuming it with QSP. So let's assume he would be ready to have 5k buffer at least to begin the next FY 2013.

Total so far: 5400 + 2500 + 1000 + 10000 = 18,900 let’s consider 19k

Going by past two years trend, CO would want 30k minimum, even not considering buffer. Lets consider 5k buffer as optional.

To grab hence:
1. 11k with no buffer considered and no porting
2. 8k with no buffer considered and 3k porting
3. 16k with 5k buffer considered and no porting
4. 13k with 5k buffer considered and 3k porting

Per the 485 inventories of past year, let's say CO has seen a 2.5k density each month for EB2IC. And since he is delaying the Dec VB release, say he looks at incoming data as well as the PWMB who filed in Nov VB, and extrapolates to a 3k density, which Teddy pointed out earlier might be possible.

Hence in above each scenario, he needs further movement of:
1. 3.5 month movement to 15th February 2008
2. 2.5 month movement to 15th January 2008
3. 5 months movement to 1st April 2008
4. 4 months movement to 1st March 2008

Please this is just some hypothetical worst case analysis, not arguing here about it should be 3k density, or 2.5 k or 2k density, or porting should be 2k or 4k and so on. It is just to drive home the point that movement is needed, only the length of the movement is to be thought about by CO. I thought a lot about posting this and was almost not posting, because I don’t want to be blamed for my PD is 11/8/2007 and am trying to prove that at least I will be current etc. Nothing is guaranteed, not even a week's move frankly speaking, until it actually happens, we cant read their minds. You can surely plug in your numbers and post what you think it can be.

I understand the concept of huge 140 backlog for EB1, EB2ROW, but CO has been comfortable to give approvals freely for Oct VB as well as Nov VB. So let's say they have used 6k + 2.5k = 8.5k visas already for EB2IC for FY 2012. So it does mean CO is banking on low demand from EB2 ROW and EB1 already. I don’t think based on pressure from USCIS that one day in this FY, they will resolve the huge backlog to some degree, hence don’t grab applications to build inventory that might be useful at end of FY in order to not waste visa numbers, CO will let this bulletin slip by.


Assuming all Jun 07 cases will be approved shortly, the number of cases that CO will have for I/C from Spec's spreadsheet is

01-NOV-07 minus 01-AUG-07
16600-10314=6.2K
Porting =3K
Total 9.2K

Obviously he has to make a BTM or am I missing something?


ok, let's take analysis of Teddy on the numbers mixed with bit of mine, to do worst case analysis.

Oct VB, 15th april to 15th july 2007 caused 5400 reduction in demand data, 2.5k still left as preadjudicated ready to go.
Nov VB, 15th july 2007 to Nov 1st : 2.5k PWMB + 10k new applications.
I am adding 1000 more who were leftovers in late 2006 and early-mid 2007, who were not in demand data for Oct VB, due to various reasons like RFE or just slipped through the cracks, etc.

Also he started the year with around 8k ready to go, and he was comfortable consuming it with QSP. So let's assume he would be ready to have 5k buffer at least to begin the next FY 2013.

Total so far: 5400 + 2500 + 1000 + 2500 + 10000 = 21,400, let’s consider 21.5k

Going by past two years trend, CO would want 30k minimum, even not considering buffer. Lets consider 5k buffer as optional.

To grab hence:
1. 8.5k with no buffer considered and no porting
2. 5.5k with no buffer considered and 3k porting
3. 13.5k with 5k buffer considered and no porting
4. 10.5k with 5k buffer considered and 3k porting

Per the 485 inventories of past year, let's say CO has seen a 2.5k density each month for EB2IC. And since he is delaying the Dec VB release, say he looks at incoming data as well as the PWMB who filed in Nov VB, and extrapolates to a 3k density, which Teddy pointed out earlier might be possible.

Hence in above each scenario, he needs further movement of:
1. 3 month movement to 1st February 2008
2. 2 month movement to 1st January 2008
3. 4.5 months movement to 15th March 2008
4. 3.5 months movement to 15th February 2008

Please this is just some hypothetical worst case analysis, not arguing here about it should be 3k density, or 2.5 k or 2k density, or porting should be 2k or 4k and so on. It is just to drive home the point that movement is needed, only the length of the movement is to be thought about by CO. I thought a lot about posting this and was almost not posting, because I don’t want to be blamed for my PD is 11/8/2007 and am trying to prove that at least I will be current etc. Nothing is guaranteed, not even a week's move frankly speaking, until it actually happens, we cant read their minds. You can surely plug in your numbers and post what you think it can be.

I understand the concept of huge 140 backlog for EB1, EB2ROW, but CO has been comfortable to give approvals freely for Oct VB as well as Nov VB. So let's say they have used 6k + 2.5k = 8.5k visas already for EB2IC for FY 2012. So it does mean CO is banking on low demand from EB2 ROW and EB1 already. I don’t think based on pressure from USCIS that one day in this FY, they will resolve the huge backlog to some degree, hence don’t grab applications to build inventory that might be useful at end of FY in order to not waste visa numbers, CO will let this bulletin slip by.


Teddy, I myself got into a bit of a loop over this.

For Nov VB, is the 2.5k PWMB being considered part of the 10k incoming traffic or additional.


It should be part of it, I believe you are referring to the 15th Jul - 15th Aug folks.


wonderful :)

let me revise my earlier post and put it, it will give an advantage of a month on that mostly.

thank you cbpds1 for bringing to my attention.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy thanks for your inputs. We shall know in few months.

When filing for Nov11 VB start showing in demand data? (We already had $10000 worth of dicussion on the numbers for that if you remember :) )

Thanks, I agree, lets hope that we have a great Dec bulletin and the 01-MAR-2008 news comes true irrespective of everything. Best of luck to everyone time to give calculations some rest. I hope your factors are true and Iam wrong thats good for everyone :).

[vizcard]

nishants analysis validates my gut feeling/ fear that the dates will not move beyond the Dec VB until the next SO period.

[tanu_75]

Maybe it's just me, but I think the calculations over here are getting way too noisy.

On another thread, I think if the VB below Mar 2008, then it's totally nuts. Seriously, I mean the last VB says "significant forward movement" and after that also goes in front of the nation's lawyers and says "After all calculations we'll need move it to at least Mar 2008". Either you keep quiet and do your thing, or you talk and then walk your talk. If you say something and do something else, then I'm sorry but qbf has the right words for that.

[girishgkulkarni]

Thanks for your continued Contributions Teddy

Girish

[suninphx]

Maybe it's just me, but I think the calculations over here are getting way too noisy.

On another thread, I think if the VB below Mar 2008, then it's totally nuts. Seriously, I mean the last VB says "significant forward movement" and after that also goes in front of the nation's lawyers and says "After all calculations we'll need move it to at least Mar 2008". Either you keep quiet and do your thing, or you talk and then walk your talk. If you say something and do something else, then I'm sorry but qbf has the right words for that.

That's a good point. This VB is most hyped one for whatever reasons. Sometimes I feel like I am watching 'aajTak-sabase Tej'. Channel. Too much analysis on same numbers again and again. :). Let's all take break from calculations for now.

BTW - I share some part of blame too

[RMS_V13]

Tanu: Sis! I am glad someone shares my viewpoint!!

I have utmost respect for Teddy and Spec's views. Those 2 are just awesome guys with all their Math work!

But this thread is getting very noisy about reading into each word and over analysing the numbers..

It is just not what it used to be, where you come in, read some good math and log off. I need to surf a few pages to get some decent information out. Just my view


That's a good point. This VB is most hyped one for whatever reasons. Sometimes I feel like I am watching 'aajTak-sabase Tej'. Channel. Too much analysis on same numbers again and again. :). Let's all take break from calculations for now.

BTW - I share some part of blame too

[leo07]

I think people started to analyze only in the last couple of days because VB didn't show up as expected. I think before that people took CO's( +Murthy's ) statement for granted. Historically, there would have been huge discussion on the inventory data, we didn't see that either :)

[tanu_75]

Tanu: Sis! I am glad someone shares my viewpoint!!

I have utmost respect for Teddy and Spec's views. Those 2 are just awesome guys with all their Math work!

But this thread is getting very noisy about reading into each word and over analysing the numbers..

It is just not what it used to be, where you come in, read some good math and log off. I need to surf a few pages to get some decent information out. Just my view

To some extent I guess it is understandable given the hype that CO himself has created and secondly the odd fact that it's been on "Coming Soon" for the past week.

But sometimes I can't follow the new calculations lead nor understand if it makes more than a few basis points impact. All power to the folks going at it, but for me I think that over-analysis fatigue has set in and I just go to Spec's matrix sheet and plug in based on a consensus update every now and then. Spec's sheet is truly awesome and brings great clarity.

[shreyasai2004]

Demand data released

[familyguy]

here we go... just 300 pending...

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf


Demand data released

[vishnu]

Dates would surely have to move significantly forward - Nishant get ready to open the bubbly

[jothi prakash]

is that numbers includes PWMB?

[shreyasai2004]

I believe the VB will release with significant date movement in 3 hrs.

[familyguy]

I think the reason for releasing the VB a little late is clear... CO wants to clear as many pending applications as possible so that demand data looks empty... this will help him to advance dates significantly...

fella's prepare for a big movement :)

[rdsingh79]

The Dec demand data bodes well for upcoming VB. This is perfect stage for CO to move dates significantly in next few VBs. Good luck to everyone waiting to be current

[skpanda]

Since the Demand is zero, I wish CO makes the dates current.. but then I know I am day dreaming.

[polapragada]

here we go... just 300 pending...

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Seems PWMB's and Aug17th-Sep 30th filers did not get counted in this demand? How come???

So demand data means preadjudicated (ready to approve) in that case only 75 ROW? WTH!!! May be CP applications counted in this?

This CO and USCIS data is clear as Mud!

[yesman]

Seems PWMB's and Aug17th-Sep 30th filers did not get counted in this demand? How come???
Those would not be documentarily qualified as yet. no?

[Kanmani]

Demand Data is the numbers which are ready, on the mark get set go to pick Visa numbers ( race is from USCIS to Dos), which is Officially called Pre-adjudicated cases.

PWMB's and Aug17th-Sep 30th are getting ready in the Green room for the next race schedule.

On the other note , are we not selfish and mean ?

[vishnu]

you are correct Yesman

[polapragada]

Those would not be documentarily qualified as yet. no?

So you are saying demand data means Preadjudicated (or) applications validated for documents completeness (Say initial Review)? May be!

[yesman]

Seems PWMB's and Aug17th-Sep 30th filers did not get counted in this demand? How come???

So demand data means preadjudicated (ready to approve) in that case only 75 ROW? WTH!!! May be CP applications counted in this?

This CO and USCIS data is clear as Mud!

75 is not ROW, but the cumulative worldwide (India+China+ROW)

[polapragada]

Demand Data is the numbers which are ready, on the mark get set go to pick Visa numbers ( race is from USCIS to Dos), which is Officially called Pre-adjudicated cases.

PWMB's and Aug17th-Sep 30th are getting ready in the Green room for the next race schedule.

On the other note , are we not selfish and mean ?

Are you asking me??

[shaumack]

Seems PWMB's and Aug17th-Sep 30th filers did not get counted in this demand? How come???

So demand data means preadjudicated (ready to approve) in that case only 75 ROW? WTH!!! May be CP applications counted in this?

This CO and USCIS data is clear as Mud!

PWMB's - When become qualfied for visa will receive visa allocation in that month itself and will be approved immediately, sowill never make it to the demand data.

Aug17th-Sep 30th filers - They are still not qualified for visas, so will not be counted.

[polapragada]

75 is not ROW, but the cumulative worldwide (India+China+ROW)

NO! it is ROW see the 3rd column

[sreddy]

I believe this demand data generated as of 1st November. As we already know all cases as of 15th July are cleared, and no surprise demand data shows clean.


Seems PWMB's and Aug17th-Sep 30th filers did not get counted in this demand? How come???

So demand data means preadjudicated (ready to approve) in that case only 75 ROW? WTH!!! May be CP applications counted in this?

This CO and USCIS data is clear as Mud!

[yesman]

Yay, I graduated my freshman year today :)

[girishgkulkarni]

Demand of only 50 numbers before Jan08 for EB2I

To me it seems like they have not taken into account the filings from the previous 2 months... ie Oct and Nov Filings....

[girishgkulkarni]

on the other note another 100 people have got a opportunity to file for I 485 because filings before Jan 11 is 150

Does any one know who gets that opportunity to file for 485 before becoming current?

[polapragada]

PWMB's - When become qualfied for visa will receive visa allocation in that month itself and will be approved immediately, sowill never make it to the demand data.

Aug17th-Sep 30th filers - They are still not qualified for visas, so will not be counted.


In this way of counting does they ever know what they are doing...? No wonder why CO is always so confused

Anyway thanks for explaining to me

[yesman]

NO! it is ROW see the 3rd column
Ah, didn't realize you were talking about the 3rd column. But I'm not too surprised at that either. This is the first time I'm looking @ demand data., pardon my ignorance here. My guess would be that the approval cycle for ROW is so quick that there are only 75 people at any given point in time that are perceived as demand. Several thousands of applicants that applied between Jan 08 and Jan 11 (under ROW) have already been approved.

[TeddyKoochu]

The demand data published is certainly excellent news. What it means is that all preadjudicated cases are completely taken care of. The PWMB cases as Shaumack has remarked may in a fair number of cases may never actually make it to the demand data, they will get approved as soon as they are adjudicated. we might start to see PWMB case approvals for the batch Apr 15th - Jul 15th by the end of this month and definitely by early next month. I sincerely hope that the news of 01-MAR-2008 turns out to be true.

[username]

I think per month allocation of visa number to EB2 category is more than 300. So now demand is less than supply. I am missing something????

[red2green]

on the other note another 100 people have got a opportunity to file for I 485 because filings before Jan 11 is 150

Does any one know who gets that opportunity to file for 485 before becoming current?

I think those are consular processing applications.

[polapragada]

The demand data published is certainly excellent news. What it means is that all preadjudicated cases are completely taken care of. The PWMB cases as Shaumack has remarked may in a fair number of cases may never actually make it to the demand data, they will get approved as soon as they are adjudicated. we might start to see PWMB case approvals for the batch Apr 15th - Jul 15th by the end of this month and definitely by early next month. I sincerely hope that the news of 01-MAR-2008 turns out to be true.
I think CO is going to stick to his promise of mar,08
So if the approvals for the newly filed cases gets stopped for a while until yearly SO...this demand data would start showing up the numbers again correct?

[asankaran]

If demand is less than supply, should they not make it current ? Looks like it is ridiculously under subscribed. I think bulls need to take over from here.

I think per month allocation of visa number to EB2 category is more than 300. So now demand is less than supply. I am missing something????

[TeddyKoochu]

I think CO is going to stick to his promise of mar,08
So if the approvals for the newly filed cases gets stopped for a while until yearly SO...this demand data would start showing up the numbers again correct?

I believe that quarterly spillover is already happening so some cases may never show up. The newly filed cases are most likely not ready yet for approvals but they may get approved as soon as they are ready. So as long as the demand data remains low its a good sign.

[veni001]

If demand is less than supply, should they not make it current ? Looks like it is ridiculously under subscribed. I think bulls need to take over from here.

Theoretically correct, since we are in Q1 only USCUS doesn't have to worry about visa wastage and con monitor demand by SFM EB2IC dates.


I believe that quarterly spillover is already happening so some cases may never show up. The newly filed cases are most likely not ready yet for approvals but they may get approved as soon as they are ready. So as long as the demand data remains low its a good sign.

Agree, Demand Data publshed (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates) for last three months hinting that.

[asankaran]

They are not going to have much work if they don't dates farther and eventually by May/June everyone would be putting extreme pressure burning out USCIS. So typical hurry and wait approach!!

Theoretically correct, since we are in Q1 only USCUS doesn't have to worry about visa wastage and con monitor demand by SFM EB2IC dates.



Agree, demand data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates) for last three months hinting that.

[meso129]

Based on the demand data My prediction is it will go substantially beyond Mar 1 08

Most likely the VB will settle down at June 1 2008. We just need to wait for official VB to come

[gc_usa]

CO is conservative when there is a enough pipeline. He became aggressive when pipeline was drying in 2007 but that was once in a life time event and USCIS learned lesson.

Since then they do talk and now CO will be little aggressive when its running out of pre adjudicated cases, will do QSP as long as pipeline is not that big , if he build 2 years worth of pipeline then he may not do QSP for first year but will do for second.

QSP is not required as per INA so it up to CO.

If he builds buffer more than 8k then it will be tough for him to move in beginning of next year.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Guys please tone down the expectations . I think it is definitely great news for folks in 2008 . Let's hope they get in as many people as possible .

[veni001]

They are not going to have much work if they don't dates farther and eventually by May/June everyone would be putting extreme pressure burning out USCIS. So typical hurry and wait approach!!

Don't think so, the demand EB2IC generate is only a fraction of 485's processed by USCIS.

Assuming our demand estimates based on PERM/i-140 are not far-off from actual and also based on what CO hinted in Nov'11 VB (forward movement for few more months), USCIS should be able to generate enough EB2IC demand to consume SOFAD.

[vizcard]

Gurus,
Can you add definitions to the Acronyms list on Page 1. I still struggle with the difference between Demand data and Inventory data. Please explain that to me.

Demand = 485 documentarily qualified but not adjudicated?
Inventory = 485 applied but not yet processed?

[veni001]

Gurus,
Can you add definitions to the Acronyms list on Page 1. I still struggle with the difference between Demand data and Inventory data. Please explain that to me.

Demand = 485 documentarily qualified but not adjudicated?
Inventory = 485 applied but not yet processed?

Demand = 485 documentarily qualified/ pre-adjudicated
Inventory = i140 approved and 485 applied (in-processing/pre-adjudicated)

[tackle]

They are not going to have much work if they don't dates farther and eventually by May/June everyone would be putting extreme pressure burning out USCIS. So typical hurry and wait approach!!

Please keep in mind that Demand of 0 on Demand-Data pdf doesn't mean that they don't have any demand. The numbers that show up on "Demand Data" are those that are pre-adjudicated and waiting for a Visa# to become available. If a visa# is available then the application will never show up on Demand-Data.

Having said that, I do believe that dates will move significantly (Mar 08) on Dec bulletin. But beyond that, I don't think we'll see any similar significant movements (there could be smaller movements) for the rest of current fiscal year.

[asankaran]

Why is whatever metric they are using for set cut off date for "ROW" it is current but for India and China they have to make SFM and BTM ? On what basis ? Why do they need to biased towards us and why do all of us have to agree and accept the bias ? If they are following the law, they should follow it or if they are using some other data point they should share the same.



Please keep in mind that Demand of 0 on Demand-Data pdf doesn't mean that they don't have any demand. The numbers that show up on "Demand Data" are those that are pre-adjudicated and waiting for a Visa# to become available. If a visa# is available then the application will never show up on Demand-Data.

Having said that, I do believe that dates will move significantly (Mar 08) on Dec bulletin. But beyond that, I don't think we'll see any similar significant movements (there could be smaller movements) for the rest of current fiscal year.

[tackle]

Why is whatever metric they are using for set cut off date for "ROW" it is current but for India and China they have to make SFM and BTM ? On what basis ? Why do they need to biased towards us and why do all of us have to agree and accept the bias ? If they are following the law, they should follow it or if they are using some other data point they should share the same.

I don't think there is a bias. It's just that the number of people migrating from China and India is too high when compared to other countries. The total available visas is split equally across all countries. So, every country receives the same share. So, there is no bias. There are bills targeted towards removal of this per country limits(quota). But in my opinion, I don't think the current system is going to change any time soon. The people in congress can't even get together to do something good for their own people. The last thing they'll be worried about is immigration reform.

[vizcard]

Why is whatever metric they are using for set cut off date for "ROW" it is current but for India and China they have to make SFM and BTM ? On what basis ? Why do they need to biased towards us and why do all of us have to agree and accept the bias ? If they are following the law, they should follow it or if they are using some other data point they should share the same.

They are following the law. Their first order of business is to keep EB1 and EB2 ROW current. IF and only IF they can be kept current, the remaining visas move down to EB2 I/C... that's why its called "spill over". When demand is less than or very close to (base allocation+SO), then we can expect a SFM or BTM.

[sreddy]

Thank you Teddy. Considering demand data is almost negligible, if CO wants inventory around 30-35k (as we earlier thought), date reaching 1st NOV 2008 by this summer is looking possible to me. What do you think?


I believe that quarterly spillover is already happening so some cases may never show up. The newly filed cases are most likely not ready yet for approvals but they may get approved as soon as they are ready. So as long as the demand data remains low its a good sign.

[wantgcnow]

Per Oct 2011 demand data EB2I Prior to Jan 2008 was 4875. Per Dec 2011 demand data EB2I Prior to Jan 2008 is 50. Does this mean they have issued 4825 visas just in Octobe

[sandeep11]

No. It means that they are the ones that are Preadjudicated (All checks done) and ready to to be given a visa number when available.



So you are saying demand data means Preadjudicated (or) applications validated for documents completeness (Say initial Review)? May be!

[tackle]

Per Oct 2011 demand data EB2I Prior to Jan 2008 was 4875. Per Dec 2011 demand data EB2I Prior to Jan 2008 is 50. Does this mean they have issued 4825 visas just in October

I believe so.

[yesman]

When do you guys think the demand for EB2IC will go back up. The new inventory is only starting to build this month (Nov). Would the applications not have to be documentarily qualified to show up as demand. I'm guessing that will take another 2-3 months. If this is all true, would CO not have free reign in moving dates in the next 2-3 months until demand is up again? And, then retrogress?

So, it strikes me that people all the way into second half of 2008 have a HIGH probability of filing 485 within the next 2-3 months. Or at least, the demand for visa numbers is NOT going to tie CO's hands. Thoughts?

[bieber]

The demand data won't spike up atleast till another 2 months, looks like Dec, Jan, Feb bulletins will have significant movement as forecasted

[krishnav]

Gurus,

Could be a naive question...sorry not an expert with the demand data stuff.
Assuming that the demand is less, how would it work for people who applied for EAD and GC in on Nov 1.
Would this only be pertaining to Priority dates movement or also getting GC faster aswell??

Please shed some light.

[veni001]

Demand data is released.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Leo,
Wake-up.

[kd2008]

Based on the new demand data technically they should make EB2 current for all. Lets see what happens.

[veni001]

Gurus,

Could be a naive question...sorry not an expert with the demand data stuff.
Assuming that the demand is less, how would it work for people who applied for EAD and GC in on Nov 1.
Would this only be pertaining to Priority dates movement or also getting GC faster aswell??

Please shed some light.

Faster GC for cases already pre-adjudicated, for new filers it mainly depends on processing time as well any case specific issues (Example: RFE)

[veni001]

Based on the new demand data technically they should make EB2 current for all. Lets see what happens.

Theoretically that's correct but we will see the game plan in next few hours.

Remember DOS/USCIS doesn't have to move dates based on estimated SOFAD, assuming that EB2IC already received their regular FY2012 allocation.

[krishnav]

Faster GC for cases already pre-adjudicated, for new filers it mainly depends on processing time as well any case specific issues (Example: RFE)

Thanks Veni,

But that exactly was my question. When demand is less, does that mean the processing times get faster becasue there are less applications than they can handle assuming they work at the same pace as they normally do??

[kd2008]

Theoretically that's correct but we will see the game plan in next few hours.

Remember DOS/USCIS doesn't have to move dates based on estimated SOFAD, assuming that EB2IC already received their regular FY2012 allocation.

You are right Veni. May be that is why they moved the dates and approved so many cases. If India and China have already consumed their annual quota then DOS won't be obliged to make them current. Aha! Very smart CO, very smart!

[veni001]

Thanks Veni,

But that exactly was my question. When demand is less, does that mean the processing times get faster becasue there are less applications than they can handle assuming they work at the same pace as they normally do??

Krishnav,
Want to re-iterate that EB2IC demand is only a fraction of the workload for USCIS, may not have any impact at-all on service center 485 processing times!

[veni001]

You are right Veni. May be that is why they moved the dates and approved so many cases. If India and China have already consumed their annual quota then DOS won't be obliged to make them current. Aha! Very smart CO, very smart!

I believe DOS/USCIS learned their lesson in 2007, not using enough(81%) EB visas before Q4!

[vizcard]

Thanks Veni,

But that exactly was my question. When demand is less, does that mean the processing times get faster becasue there are less applications than they can handle assuming they work at the same pace as they normally do??

depends on where you are in teh queue and how you define processing time. If you are closer to the front it won't make a difference. If you at the back then yes, you would get it sooner with lower demand.

[krishnav]

Krishnav,
Want to re-iterate that EB2IC demand is only a fraction of the workload for USCIS, may not have any impact at-all on service center 485 processing times!

Thanks for the clarification Veni.

[ChampU]

Faster GC for cases already pre-adjudicated, for new filers it mainly depends on processing time as well any case specific issues (Example: RFE)

I am not sure what 'Pre-Adjudicated" would mean in the current scenario.

The term made perfect sense for the folks who turned in their applications in July 2007. The USCIS had almost 4 years to work on those documents and complete the pre-adjudication process and just wait for the visa numbers to be available.

Most of the applicants who would get their GCs in FY2012 would have filed in late FY2011 or in FY2012. Going by current trends/predictions, the dates would move in Q1 and possibly Q2 and then would halt or retrogress for the remainder of the year, unless demand is exhausted.
The 2007 model was "Allow every1, hold and process (Pre-Adjudicate),approve GCs based on visa number availability".
The current model seems more like a "Generate Manageable Demand - Hold and Process - Approve - Repeat process for next FY".

[veni001]

I am not sure what 'Pre-Adjudicated" would mean in the current scenario.

The term made perfect sense for the folks who turned in their applications in July 2007. The USCIS had almost 4 years to work on those documents and complete the pre-adjudication process and just wait for the visa numbers to be available.

Most of the applicants who would get their GCs in FY2012 would have filed in late FY2011 or in FY2012. Going by current trends/predictions, the dates would move in Q1 and possibly Q2 and then would halt or retrogress for the remainder of the year, unless demand is exhausted.
The 2007 model was "Allow every1, hold and process (Pre-Adjudicate),approve GCs based on visa number availability".
The current model seems more like a "Generate Manageable Demand - Hold and Process - Approve - Repeat process for next FY".

ChampU,

In current scenario pre-adjudication depends on # of new EB2IC applications received Vs processed Vs visas allocated on a monthly basis.

Remember once regular FY2012 quota for EB2IC is consumed, then EB2IC is at the mercy of SOFAD which will depends on several factors! (Ex: Monthly/Quarterly limits/allocations)

[ChampU]

ChampU,

In current scenario pre-adjudication depends on # of new EB2IC applications received Vs processed Vs visas allocated on a monthly basis.

Remember once regular FY2012 quota for EB2IC is consumed, then EB2IC is at the mercy of SOFAD which will depends on several factors! (Ex: Monthly/Quarterly limits/allocations)

Veni,

Thanks for the clarification.

Going by the ball part estimate of about 2.5k applications per month and current per country max of about 3k, folks with PDs within 30-45 days of 07/15/2007 (the cut-off date at the begining of FY2012) would get their visas as a part of regular FY2012 quota. So folks with PDs after 08/15/2007 are dependent on the SOFAD for their visa numbers.

Is that a rational assumption?

Assuming a SOFAD of about 30k:

If QSP is happening, 7.5k applications would get their visas at the end of each Quarter. So, by the end of Q1-2012, the applications before 15th Nov would be pre-adjudicated (3 months from 08/15). The dates would be 02/15/2008 at end of Q2, 05/15/2008 at the end of Q3 and 08/15/2008 at the end of Q4.

If QSP is not happening, all the applications would be "pre-adjudicated" and when the SO season hits, the dates would jump around mid-Q3 and Q4.

I know there are a lot of variables that could blow this model away.. but it kind of makes sense to me.

Thanks again!

[sha_kus]

Does QSP give more numbers to IC or the Year End Spillover?

[mysati]

I think this FY's spillover model is significant from the following perspective:

From what I remember/ read somewhere, during the 2007 fiasco, USCIS/DoS-CO had assured the ombudsman that no new GCs (for EB2-I/C) beyond the 2007 cut off date will be issued until the backlog accumulated during the fiasco is cleared. That is the reason we are seeing QSP or Monthly SP or whatever model that is being followed now.

Now that the demand data shows zero, it will technically prove that they have kept up their word. Please note that PWMB anyway will not be counted towards this demand.

My personal opinion is this month's demand data is very significant from that perspective. It is also why we are seeing this new/ wierd spillover and GC issue pattern this past two months. Please feel to tear this apart :)

P.S. EB2-I/C total demand of 75 before 01/01/2008 is very insignificant and can be approximated to zero

[shaumack]

I just want to add that since Demand Data is from November 7th, CO has no interest in gauging demand for applications filed and firm date of 01 March 2008 will be seen in the Visa Bulletin. He will stick to his words, I believe.

[nishant2200]

Hello everyone. I went through the posts. Thanks to all my friends who mentioned me.

Yes, the demand data is close to 0 as many of us here were already thinking of. But to actually see it in the document is another thing.

The VB release is inevitable now. Prudence suggests the VB should be released before end of business day today for DOS. Since the DD was released before 6 AM PST, it seems to me that their day began at 8 AM EST not like 9 AM EST. Must be 8 to 5 kind of office hours, that also explains why sometimes VB have been released around 2 PM PST, which is 5 PM EST. Many times VB has been released while I am on lunch here, around 12.30 to 12.50 PST. Not that we can derive any conclusions from this, like the coming soon googly, they can do anything at anytime.

I sincerely hope they don't wait till tomorrow. The DD generation date is 7th of November, he already waited like two days after the data collection and tabulation. It does not take rocket scientist to say that if not today, tomorrow VB release is 100% sure.

As far as what we can analyse from DD, it's pretty much the same. CO does have the leeway I believe to make it to his so called prediction of 1st March 2008 or beyond. It all depends now on few decision makers in the DOS/VO/USCIS, whoever they are. Our fate is in their hands. Hopefully they learnt lesson from July 2007 fiasco where suddenly they had to apply more than 70k extra EB visas in around last quarter and were caught with pants down. We can always speculate what the SOFAD will be like, what porting will be like, but that is all speculation and prediction of future, no one has seen future, so prudence suggests CO should prepare for worst case by looking at last two years trend, and the last years trend at the very least.

[nishant2200]

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/10/visa-bulletin-december-2011.html#comments

Our friend CM boldly predicts now that :
EB2-IC will move to 1 Mar 2008 or more.

in comments area.

[red2green]

ChampU,

In current scenario pre-adjudication depends on # of new EB2IC applications received Vs processed Vs visas allocated on a monthly basis.

Remember once regular FY2012 quota for EB2IC is consumed, then EB2IC is at the mercy of SOFAD which will depends on several factors! (Ex: Monthly/Quarterly limits/allocations)

Veni & other Gurus,

I was going through this pdf(THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM) on USCIS website and can you please help me understand the below statement applies for the current scenario.


The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.

[yesman]

Veni & other Gurus,

I was going through this pdf(THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM) on USCIS website and can you please help me understand the below statement applies for the current scenario.


The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.

I think this is a great find. It would explain how the SO has been happening so freely in the last month or so. But if it were true, it would also limit the benefit of such movement to the next 2-3 months before demand starts building up for EB2IC

[bieber]

red2green

that explains the recent approval surge, thanks

[nishant2200]

Veni & other Gurus,

I was going through this pdf(THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM) on USCIS website and can you please help me understand the below statement applies for the current scenario.


The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.

This line coupled with the no more than 30% of total categories allocation in the first three quarters is what drives QSP.

If you see the DD, it shows EB2 allocation for year is 40,040. 30% of that is: 12,012, similarly for EB1, EB4, EB5 etc. Note EB4 and EB5 only have 9,940 total for year, so 30% of that is less.

Per country limit is 7%, EB2 India is limited to 2,803.

But if in the quarter, the demand from categories which can be spilled over onto EB2 India is deemed less than total of the max allowable in the quarter 30% minus normal India's allocation, for each such category, then we can be assigned those numbers from those categories.

[rockybaba]

Demand data out http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Curious to know if the sun rise in the west, where you woke up? :D

[rockybaba]

Guess my first post did not add much value :-(

Sure did...brought a big grin to my face. We need some ice-breakers while we await the VB avec a lot of tension!!

[winsomelad]

According to analysis from Guru's and Geeks. The prediction for this bulletin is either

Mar -2008 (100%)
June -2008 (80%)
Oct - 2008 (50%)

With in 2 hrs, we will be going to get the Visa Bulletin.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

I just want all of us to take a pause and seriously consider some of the core principles of our forum:

1. Freedom of speech
2. Attack ideas/opinions BUT never a person
3. Contribute to bring clarity to GC process
4. Empathize with All immigrant groups


So please consider these four principles that have made this forum successful. We have very tolerant. However whenever members have violated especially #1, #2 we haven't been tolerant of that. So please ensure that the spirit of this forum is kept alive.

Contribute to it. Benefit from it. Post freely. Let others post freely.

I thank you all for your interest in this forum and your contributions to this forum.

p.s. - I have closed the thread for now to ensure sufficient people see and read this. Will open the thread tomorrow 9 am EDT.

[nishant2200]

Guys had to put this, even on closed thread. I think Q will forgive me and not fire me from admin/moderator position.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB2 India 15th March 2008

[qesehmk]

Congratulations!!! Terrific news for a ton of people.

Lets cross fingers for the actual bullletin to come out. But 99% it will be in line w Mumbai one.

This is a bad time to keep the thread closed :( Its all yours now.


Guys had to put this, even on closed thread. I think Q will forgive me and not fire me from admin/moderator position.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB2 India 15th March 2008

[grnwtg]

Hopefull this is true as Mumbai is not always correct.
Anyway as I and QBF were always telling, it will be stupidity on part of CO if he does not move dates atleast april'2008. Let us hope for good luck that it will be true.
Nishant and several other people like are waiting for this from last 10 years.
I currently dont have any reaction as i want to see news from uscis bulletin.


Guys had to put this, even on closed thread. I think Q will forgive me and not fire me from admin/moderator position.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB2 India 15th March 2008

[imdeng]

Congratulations! Nishant, QBF - hope you guys will continue contributing. QBF - you have shared your personal situation before and we are aware of the tough road you have traveled. Its great that the end is in sight for you.

Gurus: Considering that we went above and beyond the expectations, could it be that the incoming demand density post 07/07 is lower than feared? Could it be that the Demand Destruction that has been rumored is true and significant??

Q: Really bad timing to lock down the thread. Some like minded folks ended up expressing their delight in one of the other threads. :-)

PS> I came back to US last night. Immigration at ORD was a breeze. Stupid 40lbs per person baggage limit sucks hard especially when your Mom insists on sending big dabbas of achar!

[geevikram]

Teddy/Q/Veni,
Now that the dates have progressed to Mar'08 as expected, do you guys foresee any potential retrogression? Is this real movement or a TBM to fill up their pipeline?

Bit worried as I'm close --Jul'08.

-Vik

[Pdmar08]

CONGRATULATIONS ALL

11/01/07 - romanitaly
11/08/07 - Nishant2200
11/09/07 - gcseeker
11/15/07 - srd4GC
11/21/07 - KPT112107
12/04/07 - Eb2_Dec07
12/12/07 - Reader
12/13/07 - Dec13th2007
12/19/07 - teja9999
12/19/07 - arikepudi
12/19/07 - Jitesh
01/10/08 - FamilyGuy
01/10/08 - ravisekhar
01/15/08 - indiasunil
01/29/08 - cbpds1
02/01/08 - Gclongwait
02/07/08- Nabrika
02/08/08 -meso129
02/22/08 - ggk189
03/07/08 - polapragada
03/11/08 - grnwtg
03/14/08 - vwsb310

TO BECOME CURRENT

Was awake due to ject lag at 3 am pst not sure why i went to mumbai consulate site, didnt find nov 1 2007 realised these are new dates, thought of cposting on forum, realised q has closed it, came anyway, saw nishant had posted it already.

The elephant has gone , the tail has gone and i m saved by a hair,
03/13/08 - PDMar08

Can some one point me to a good post or thread about medicals i know nothing, have nothing and m trying not to freak out, i know we have up to 31dec2011 (atleast) to file but its holiday time.

Let the mayhem begin.;)

[vchirakala]

I feel that the fee sent for CP till June 2008 might be true. I think the dates will go till Jul 1st 2008 and after that may stop for sometime.

[grnwtg]

Hopefully these dates are correct, then from what CO said there should be good moment in next bulletin also ( looking at CO's words i guess it might go atleast till May - July'08 ).
As expected Demand data went to almost zero from 8000 from last 2 periods, this is might be a error correction as mentioned by CO.
Hope for the best.




Congrats to the Currentlok. Y

SaturnRing, we're on next. Put on your pads, thing guard and ball guard.

03/26/08 - Saturnring
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie

[Pedro Gonzales]

I feel that the fee sent for CP till June 2008 might be true. I think the dates will go till Jul 1st 2008 and after that may stop for sometime.


Congratulations to those who are current :). I guess wherever they draw the line, there will be people on the other side. I missed the date by couple of weeks :(

Gurus, do you still believe the dates will move further in Jan bulletin ? whats your take ?

I think the Gurus have been unanimous in their opinion that the movement we are seeing is to generate inventory only, and not everyone here will receive their GCs this year. The dates may move forward further in Jan and Feb, but will almost certainly retrogress to some point in early 2008. There is disagreement amongst the Gurus as to what that retrogression date may be.

The variables include, a) EB1 and EB2ROW (the Gurus are unanimous in the expectation that it will be lower this year), b) Porting (disagreement in what the level is, but the Gurus are unanimous that it will be constant from last year), and c) demand destruction due to the recession (no consensus here but the Gurus are more conservative in general than aam public).

I don't mean to be a naysayer, but with my Apr 25, 2008 PD, I fully expect to submit my I485 this year and receive my EAD, but I do not expect my GC until the FY2013 spill over starts. If that's Quarterly spill over, I'll get it by Dec 2012, if its annual, it won't be until June 2013. But I still remain hopeful that HR3012 will help.

[vizcard]

The movement in Nov & Dec has been the same as June & July in terms of # of days. Lets hope against hope that Jan and Feb are also the same.

[gc_usa]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5603.html

[vizcard]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5603.html

No additional notes or comments in the bulletin ... not sure what to make of that.

[nishant2200]

Hello, thanks to all those who wished me as well as all who are current. My best wishes and big thumbs up to all current.

The official VB is out, I was kind of still nervous until it came out, so it comes out and confirms it.

I was really wanting to see comments by CO in the VB, but he did not put any. Last year in Dec bulletin, once he had done his strategy of intake for F2A category, he knew what's coming up and had clearly mentioned as comments that retrogression may happen as early as January i.e. the next bulletin. He did not put it for us in Dec Bulletin of this year whilst following similar intake mode so far. No news is good news sometimes.

Hence following observations, this time from non conservative and brighter side of things:
a. As posted by me on first page, first post from me, I do see dates reaching May - June 2008 somewhere in this FY to support the NVC theory. It is CO's office who would intimate the NVC about date movement guidance.
b. The demand density should be around 2.5k, not 3k as we feared, and NIW is not that huge a menace it seems.
c. The porting is around 3k a year maximum.
d. People who go for CP may end up getting GCs upto 6-8 months earlier than AOS applicants.
e. If QSP continues throughout the year in some capacity, dates will end up at a higher spectrum for GC issuance, if QSP is not done at some stage, and wait for annual SO, dates will move less, because USCIS will catch up with their EB1 and EB2ROW backlog. Already on trackitt, at least EB1 (A and B) are raising concerns that they are being neglected. (btw, you cant call about your 485 to service inquiry or congress until you are past the processing time advertised by the service center, an FYI from what I thought it is and confirmed by reading the rant threads by the EB1 folks).
d. Depending on how much buffer CO is left with to start FY 2013, we might see similar Q1 QSP intake mode, we might see a one month BTM (highly unlikely), we might see a late Q3-Q4 move (Kanmani proposed few posts back).
e. CO wants to avoid retrogression I feel, but looking at his aggressive movements, some degree of retrogression will happen even with QSP. With QSP the retrogression will be less severe, if QSP stops, it will be more severe (August 2007) and advance only in late Q3 - Q4 from there.
f. Actual GC issuance, again as I have put on first page first post, I believe somewhere in December 2007 to January 2008 borderline, and this dates may improve if CO continues QSP and USCIS remains inefficient in processing EB1 and EB2ROW (more so EB1 is difficult to process because of Kazarian, EB2 ROW should be similar to ours, I feel EB2 ROW demand might have dropped to some degree, I don't see many whining from EB2 ROW folks on trackitt, but do see from EB1 A and EB1 B).
g. CO's next move coupled with the next I-485 inventory and shaping of demand data in subsequent bulletins shall lead to further refining of above observations.

[TheTexan]

I wonder as to why CO did not put any comments. Would it be fair to assume that he plans to move the dates forward in next 2 bulletins? My pd is July 2008 so wondering what to expect. Nishant, thanks for your analysis of dec bulletin.

[vizcard]

Hello, thanks to all those who wished me as well as all who are current. My best wishes and big thumbs up to all current.

The official VB is out, I was kind of still nervous until it came out, so it comes out and confirms it.

I was really wanting to see comments by CO in the VB, but he did not put any. Last year in Dec bulletin, once he had done his strategy of intake for F2A category, he knew what's coming up and had clearly mentioned as comments that retrogression may happen as early as January i.e. the next bulletin. He did not put it for us in Dec Bulletin of this year whilst following similar intake mode so far. No news is good news sometimes.

Hence following observations, this time from non conservative and brighter side of things:
a. As posted by me on first page, first post from me, I do see dates reaching May - June 2008 somewhere in this FY to support the NVC theory. It is CO's office who would intimate the NVC about date movement guidance.
b. The demand density should be around 2.5k, not 3k as we feared, and NIW is not that huge a menace it seems.
c. The porting is around 3k a year maximum.
d. People who go for CP may end up getting GCs upto 6-8 months earlier than AOS applicants.
e. If QSP continues throughout the year in some capacity, dates will end up at a higher spectrum for GC issuance, if QSP is not done at some stage, and wait for annual SO, dates will move less, because USCIS will catch up with their EB1 and EB2ROW backlog. Already on trackitt, at least EB1 (A and B) are raising concerns that they are being neglected. (btw, you cant call about your 485 to service inquiry or congress until you are past the processing time advertised by the service center, an FYI from what I thought it is and confirmed by reading the rant threads by the EB1 folks).
d. Depending on how much buffer CO is left with to start FY 2013, we might see similar Q1 QSP intake mode, we might see a one month BTM (highly unlikely), we might see a late Q3-Q4 move (Kanmani proposed few posts back).
e. CO wants to avoid retrogression I feel, but looking at his aggressive movements, some degree of retrogression will happen even with QSP. With QSP the retrogression will be less severe, if QSP stops, it will be more severe (August 2007) and advance only in late Q3 - Q4 from there.
f. Actual GC issuance, again as I have put on first page first post, I believe somewhere in December 2007 to January 2008 borderline, and this dates may improve if CO continues QSP and USCIS remains inefficient in processing EB1 and EB2ROW (more so EB1 is difficult to process because of Kazarian, EB2 ROW should be similar to ours, I feel EB2 ROW demand might have dropped to some degree, I don't see many whining from EB2 ROW folks on trackitt, but do see from EB1 A and EB1 B).
g. CO's next move coupled with the next I-485 inventory and shaping of demand data in subsequent bulletins shall lead to further refining of above observations.

Your SECOND (d) is what bothers me....

[TheTexan]

Sent you an email..

[username]

pdmarch282008 and others

Add your PD here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?201-Database-of-PDs-for-folks-not-current-yet/page3

What about including previous month PDs. Teddy and many got current previous month.

[Nishant_imt]

People,

I know everyone is looking at VB and this is not the right forum to discuss personal immigration issues, but nobody goes to the other thread and hence i have to post my question here.

My greencard was filed in Richmond VA by my consulting firm. At that time, they had a branch office from which they filed the greencard. 2 years later, i moved to another state on a different project. My company lost its primary vendorship in Richmond and hence shut down its Branch office there. I talked with Lawyer today and she confirmed that the greencard processing has to be filed again. So here are my questions:

1) Can I recapture my PD? how long do i have, to recapture my PD if the processing starts again.
2) Do I need to be in Richmond again to capture my PD? I mean the job again has to be in Richmond whether or not with the same consulting firm?
3) If I change job and go to any other state, can i still capture my PD?
4) If the new organization i join, files my greencard only after a year (which most of the organizations do) would i still be able to recapture my PD?
5) i am already in my 7th year of H1B, the last time i got an extension of 1 year based on my labor (I-140 came 2 days after filing H1B), so now if i change companies, would they be able to get 3 years extension for my H1B based on I-140 that was for Richmond Job?

Thanks in advance for any of your replies. I am really in a depressed state at this time. I would appreciate any word of consolation.

[pdmay2008]

I wonder as to why CO did not put any comments. Would it be fair to assume that he plans to move the dates forward in next 2 bulletins? My pd is July 2008 so wondering what to expect. Nishant, thanks for your analysis of dec bulletin.

CO did not give any comments in this bulletin. I think he is going to stand on his words that he communicated before.

Here is the info from Murthy article posted before.

EB2 India and China: More Movement Likely in January and February

In addition to the predictions for December 2011, the DOS also anticipates similar levels of advancement during January and February 2012. No specific cutoff dates were given as predictions for these months. The reason for this advancement, as explained in previous MurthyBulletin articles, is that the prior movement of EB2 cutoff dates has allowed for the approval of the vast majority of pending EB2 I-485 cases. Thus, since I-485 cases take approximately four to six months for U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) processing, the DOS has to move the cutoff dates forward to allow for enough I-485 filings to fill the (largely empty) pipeline of cases. This has to be done far enough in advance of the end of FY12 (September 30) for cases to be approved before the end of the fiscal year. Otherwise, if there are not enough cases ready for approval, the visa numbers could go unused.

[imdeng]

I think we have learned to be quite conservative to avoid disappointment - but remember that before the EB1 12K bombshell dropped, we expected spillover to be quite low last year as well. So all we know, we might get another 30K-35K spillover.

Demand density post 07/07 is the wild card. Based on PERM data, we are considering the period from 07/07 to end of 2008 as being quite dense - but there are a lot of moving factors there - including demand destruction due to lack of EAD, lower dependent ratios, duplication of PERM filings (in general, Indians who came to the country later have tended to have more two-income households with both spouses on independent H1Bs and independent I-140s; just my impression).

With 07/07 inventory gone, we are quite blind now. A few months will clear the air. Hopefully. In any case, I remain optimistic about future movement. We have crossed the densest year (2007), we have a potentially-equally-dense-but-probably-less-dense 2008 ahead of us followed by a very weak 2009. Unfortunately, 2010 is again quite dense - but that is not of immediate concern.

PS> Look at how the Chinese EB2 demand has fallen from a cliff around 2007. I won't be surprised of EB21 follows the same pattern with some delay.
PPS> If you have not watched yet, please see the recent South Park episodes about Mexican immigrants going back - its funny because its true (almost).


I think the Gurus have been unanimous in their opinion that the movement we are seeing is to generate inventory only, and not everyone here will receive their GCs this year. The dates may move forward further in Jan and Feb, but will almost certainly retrogress to some point in early 2008. There is disagreement amongst the Gurus as to what that retrogression date may be.

The variables include, a) EB1 and EB2ROW (the Gurus are unanimous in the expectation that it will be lower this year), b) Porting (disagreement in what the level is, but the Gurus are unanimous that it will be constant from last year), and c) demand destruction due to the recession (no consensus here but the Gurus are more conservative in general than aam public).

I don't mean to be a naysayer, but with my Apr 25, 2008 PD, I fully expect to submit my I485 this year and receive my EAD, but I do not expect my GC until the FY2013 spill over starts. If that's Quarterly spill over, I'll get it by Dec 2012, if its annual, it won't be until June 2013. But I still remain hopeful that HR3012 will help.

[evoori]

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?238-Post-485-Filing&p=13312#post13312


Congratulations to all who are current!

I am current too and have a couple of questions. My lawyer is usually slow to respond and cannot be contacted directly too. So, can any one please provide some inputs?

I am planning to go on my vacation, to India, from Dec-5th to Jan-4th. If I file on Dec-1st,

1. Within how many days will I get my notice for finger printing notice?

2. Will it come to my home address? In that case, since I will not be here, is it possible for it to be sent to the lawyer's office so that they can email me the information?

3. Will it be possible to postpone my finger printing to after I return (in early Jan)? If not, what is the safe period before when I should return (in Dec)?

4. If all of this would not really work, is it wise to file in January, after my return, than in December?


Thanks for the help!

P.S. Admins, I posted in this thread due to the traffic volume. Please delete/ move this to a relevant thread once it has been answered.

[imdeng]

My sincere advice to you is to postpone your visit. You never know about potential retrogression - and you want to have the earliest receipt date possible (in case they have some kind of FIFO in there). You will get an EAD in a matter of months and then you can visit with peace of mind. You have an opportunity that so many of us have been waiting since forever for - don't mess with it.



I am planning to go on my vacation, to India, from Dec-5th to Jan-4th. If I file on Dec-1st,

1. Within how many days will I get my notice for finger printing notice?

2. Will it come to my home address? In that case, since I will not be here, is it possible for it to be sent to the lawyer's office so that they can email me the information?

3. Will it be possible to postpone my finger printing to after I return (in early Jan)? If not, what is the safe period before when I should return (in Dec)?

4. If all of this would not really work, is it wise to file in January, after my return, than in December?

[self.coach]

Gurus, what are pre-adjudicated cases and how do I know if mine is? My PD is 08-20-09, EB2I.

[frenzyrider]

This is my first post. I have been a lurker for almost a year. However, this forum has been a great resource for my understanding of the process. Q, Spec, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, and every one of you has been great. I am missing sogaddu for a while especially he cracks me up on every one of his post.

Having said that, my wife's employer had sponsored her for Eb2 and the PD is Mar 8, 2008. So yeeaaah..she is current.

Couple of questions -

1) Unfortunately, she is travelling to India for family medical emergency this weekend and coming back on the first week of December. She would need to get her H1 stamped. Can there be a problem in stamping that now she is current.

2) We have not filed the 485 ever so we are planning to file for 485, EAD, and AP after she returns. Is there anything that we should do in advance so that we can file the paperwork immediately upon her return.

FrenzyRider

[pdfeb09]

Gurus, what are pre-adjudicated cases and how do I know if mine is? My PD is 08-20-09, EB2I.

Pre-adjudicated cases are those 485 applications that were filed earlier and USCIS has had time to process them. They did not get Greened for the lack of Visa numbers. This was/is the case with many people who filed for 485 during July 2007 fiasco.

If you have never filed for AOS (I485) then you are not pre-adjudicated.

[vizcard]

CO did not give any comments in this bulletin. I think he is going to stand on his words that he communicated before.

Here is the info from Murthy article posted before.

EB2 India and China: More Movement Likely in January and February

In addition to the predictions for December 2011, the DOS also anticipates similar levels of advancement during January and February 2012. No specific cutoff dates were given as predictions for these months. The reason for this advancement, as explained in previous MurthyBulletin articles, is that the prior movement of EB2 cutoff dates has allowed for the approval of the vast majority of pending EB2 I-485 cases. Thus, since I-485 cases take approximately four to six months for U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) processing, the DOS has to move the cutoff dates forward to allow for enough I-485 filings to fill the (largely empty) pipeline of cases. This has to be done far enough in advance of the end of FY12 (September 30) for cases to be approved before the end of the fiscal year. Otherwise, if there are not enough cases ready for approval, the visa numbers could go unused.

I'm going to wing it a little and see if this makes sense. This is a stream of consciouness so I apologize if its complete BS.

If we assume that USCIS takes 5 months (average), they would need to get approx 35K by April 2012 (right?). At 2.5K density he needs to move 14 months. If we assume 3K porting and some small existing demand >0, we can expect total movement would be 11-12 months this year. I think we hit July 1 or Aug 1 max.

[mesan123]

Hi Frenzyrider,

I can answer to my knowledge...i got my stamping recently from india(chennai consulate). if your wife is from consulatncy company, she will have to face little longer interview time, if she has documents she can get the visa same day but i would tell 70% chances to get visa on same date( they may ask for some documents as that has been trend even if they get very little doubt also.) But people are getting visa even after getting 221g.

if she can postpone her trip untill dec first week( if she can only, i dont know your situations, just a suggestion) it would be idle.

bcoz, for any reason her visa gets delayed you may be stuck there for 3weeks to 3 months based on the queries they give. as ur priority date is mar 8th, if the dates retrogress in JAN bulletin it would be tough

I would suggest if she can file 485 and then go for india trip...

GOOD LUCK




This is my first post. I have been a lurker for almost a year. However, this forum has been a great resource for my understanding of the process. Q, Spec, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, and every one of you has been great. I am missing sogaddu for a while especially he cracks me up on every one of his post.

Having said that, my wife's employer had sponsored her for Eb2 and the PD is Mar 8, 2008. So yeeaaah..she is current.

Couple of questions -

1) Unfortunately, she is travelling to India for family medical emergency this weekend and coming back on the first week of December. She would need to get her H1 stamped. Can there be a problem in stamping that now she is current.

2) We have not filed the 485 ever so we are planning to file for 485, EAD, and AP after she returns. Is there anything that we should do in advance so that we can file the paperwork immediately upon her return.

FrenzyRider

[qblogfan]

Thanks! I have sent an email to the CEO and asked him to start 485, but I don't know whether he will move forward! He delayed my PERM for 2 years or more! He may think this slave will get freedom and may not be happy about it. Plus the company is shaking and may collapse soon! I will see how it goes!


Congratulations to one and all that will be current with this VB! QBF, hope you file your I-485 without any further complications and finally see an end to your slavery!

[tackle]

Congratulations to all who are current!

I am current too and have a couple of questions. My lawyer is usually slow to respond and cannot be contacted directly too. So, can any one please provide some inputs?

I am planning to go on my vacation, to India, from Dec-5th to Jan-4th. If I file on Dec-1st,

1. Within how many days will I get my notice for finger printing notice?

2. Will it come to my home address? In that case, since I will not be here, is it possible for it to be sent to the lawyer's office so that they can email me the information?

3. Will it be possible to postpone my finger printing to after I return (in early Jan)? If not, what is the safe period before when I should return (in Dec)?

4. If all of this would not really work, is it wise to file in January, after my return, than in December?


Thanks for the help!

P.S. Admins, I posted in this thread due to the traffic volume. Please delete/ move this to a relevant thread once it has been answered.


Here is my comments on this:
1. Do you already have a valid visa stamped on your passport? Or do you need to go stamping when you are in India? My lawyers advised my friend to not leave country until he gets AP

2. I think the lawyers could fill out the forms in a way that they'll get FP notice. But I'm not 100% sure about that. I haven't got my notice yet. When I do, I'll let you know if my lawyers get it or if I get it.

3. Copy pasted from uscis webpage:

If you have filed an I-485, I-589, I-751, N-400, I-90, I-821, I-131 or I-765, you can expect to receive an appointment notice to appear at an Application Support Center to have your fingerprints and/or photographs taken. The timing of your appointment is determined by the number of applicants ahead of you that also need a biometric appointment. We try to schedule biometric appointments as quickly as possible and in most cases you will receive your appointment notice within 30 days of submitting your application. We will send your appointment notice approximately 14 days ahead of your scheduled appointment. It is important that you keep this appointment. If absolutely necessary, you can request that your appointment be rescheduled however, please be aware that rescheduling may delay the processing of your application. Please follow the instructions on your appointment notice if you need to reschedule. Occasionally, you may receive an appointment notice to appear at an Application Support Center to have your fingerprints taken when you have filed a form other than those listed above. In these situations, you may receive your appointment notice more than 30 days after submitting your application or petition.

So, it is possible to reschedule FP. Now, it is up to you to decide what's the best course to take. I understand how travel to India is a commitment and it could be difficult to reschedule due to various reasons. Discuss with your lawyer (start discussion right away as you mentioned they are slow to respond) and ask for their opinion. Also, you've said that your lawyer is slow (to respond). So, is there a guarantee that they'll send your applications before you leave to India? I think the applicants must actually be in US at the time of application. All the best!.

[frenzyrider]

Thank you for a detailed reply.

No she is not in a consultancy company.

I think this is possibly the best time for her to go because once you file for 485, it can be risky to travel without a AP or EAD because the consular officer or the officer at POE can easily see that she has filed for a 485.

Any thoughts, anyone?


Hi Frenzyrider,

I can answer to my knowledge...i got my stamping recently from india(chennai consulate). if your wife is from consulatncy company, she will have to face little longer interview time, if she has documents she can get the visa same day but i would tell 70% chances to get visa on same date( they may ask for some documents as that has been trend even if they get very little doubt also.) But people are getting visa even after getting 221g.

if she can postpone her trip untill dec first week( if she can only, i dont know your situations, just a suggestion) it would be idle.

bcoz, for any reason her visa gets delayed you may be stuck there for 3weeks to 3 months based on the queries they give. as ur priority date is mar 8th, if the dates retrogress in JAN bulletin it would be tough

I would suggest if she can file 485 and then go for india trip...

GOOD LUCK

[tometukuri]

Pdmar08 - Why do you want to wait till 12/1 when you are current today. You can get the tests done asap as far as I know. The validity is I-693 is for a year

[username]

Vizcard,
i am current with many others today. is it ok to make an appointment with civil surgeon now or do we need to wait for 12/1?
thanks!

Don't wait for a single minute. Go and get your body puncher now...:)

[pdmay2008]

I'm going to wing it a little and see if this makes sense. This is a stream of consciouness so I apologize if its complete BS.

If we assume that USCIS takes 5 months (average), they would need to get approx 35K by April 2012 (right?). At 2.5K density he needs to move 14 months. If we assume 3K porting and some small existing demand >0, we can expect total movement would be 11-12 months this year. I think we hit July 1 or Aug 1 max.

I can not read CO mind. But If they want to maintain 35K pipeline all the time, they need to atleast move another 4 to 6 months in next couple of months.

[vizcard]

Vizcard,
i am current with many others today. is it ok to make an appointment with civil surgeon now or do we need to wait for 12/1?
thanks!

Do it now... asap :) congrats btw.

[imdeng]

Same advice as to the other poster - if it is at all possible, postpone your travel until you get EAD. Especially since she needs a stamping - there is no point in risking. I got stuck in a stupid clerical error 221g (if you look a few pages back, you will get the details) when I have the most stable/problem-free H1B job possible in US. My company lawyers essentially said that I was a fool to even think of going to India and getting the stamp - they recommend staying put until EAD/AP stage is reached.


This is my first post. I have been a lurker for almost a year. However, this forum has been a great resource for my understanding of the process. Q, Spec, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, and every one of you has been great. I am missing sogaddu for a while especially he cracks me up on every one of his post.

Having said that, my wife's employer had sponsored her for Eb2 and the PD is Mar 8, 2008. So yeeaaah..she is current.

Couple of questions -

1) Unfortunately, she is travelling to India for family medical emergency this weekend and coming back on the first week of December. She would need to get her H1 stamped. Can there be a problem in stamping that now she is current.

2) We have not filed the 485 ever so we are planning to file for 485, EAD, and AP after she returns. Is there anything that we should do in advance so that we can file the paperwork immediately upon her return.

FrenzyRider

[vizcard]

I can not read CO mind. But If they want to maintain 35K pipeline all the time, they need to atleast move another 4 to 6 months in next couple of months.

Gun to my head, I'd say 4 months (although I'd personally love 6) by March/April. So it doesn't have to be in the next 2 bulletins. I think the gurus have indicated the same.

[pdmay2008]

Gun to my head, I'd say 4 months (although I'd personally love 6) by March/April. So it doesn't have to be in the next 2 bulletins. I think the gurus have indicated the same.

I agree that it does not need to be in next 2 bulletins according to our stats and Gurus opinion. But by taking CO words in his previous discussion with attorneys group, I would say it would be in next two VBs.

[kd2008]

This is my first post. I have been a lurker for almost a year. However, this forum has been a great resource for my understanding of the process. Q, Spec, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, and every one of you has been great. I am missing sogaddu for a while especially he cracks me up on every one of his post.

Having said that, my wife's employer had sponsored her for Eb2 and the PD is Mar 8, 2008. So yeeaaah..she is current.

Couple of questions -

1) Unfortunately, she is travelling to India for family medical emergency this weekend and coming back on the first week of December. She would need to get her H1 stamped. Can there be a problem in stamping that now she is current.

2) We have not filed the 485 ever so we are planning to file for 485, EAD, and AP after she returns. Is there anything that we should do in advance so that we can file the paperwork immediately upon her return.

FrenzyRider

If it is a true family medical emergency, then don't even think about anything else. Just go. Since she is going for stamping too and staying there for 4 weeks, it would help if she did it as soon as she arrives in India. This will give enough time to resolve any issue if they arise. Do not worry about denials etc - they are mostly overblown because people who face issues are more vocal than people who have a smooth experience. This gives a false impression that it is difficult to get the visa stamped.

In mean time you need to do the leg work and follow up with attorneys and get paperwork in order - esp. birth and marriage certificates and medical exam. Once your wife returns and completes her medical exam, you can file without any issues.

[vishnu]

I agree with KD2008 - if it is a true family emergency then not much else can be done. Go... I went to Chennai consulate in September for H1 renewal and no probs. Passport received back the next day at VFS center with stamp. But if you are in IT consulting, just be more prepared and have ALL the letters required.

[dorais]

Congrats to everyone who got current!

How could I look at the number of PERM's applied for each month? I looked at the PERM database, but it only had the decision/approval date in it. Could you get the application date from the perm case number? For example if the case number is A-08271-91262, does 08 stand for fiscal year and is there any other digits that represents the number of days in the year?

Thanks,
Dorais.


I think we have learned to be quite conservative to avoid disappointment - but remember that before the EB1 12K bombshell dropped, we expected spillover to be quite low last year as well. So all we know, we might get another 30K-35K spillover.

Demand density post 07/07 is the wild card. Based on PERM data, we are considering the period from 07/07 to end of 2008 as being quite dense - but there are a lot of moving factors there - including demand destruction due to lack of EAD, lower dependent ratios, duplication of PERM filings (in general, Indians who came to the country later have tended to have more two-income households with both spouses on independent H1Bs and independent I-140s; just my impression).

With 07/07 inventory gone, we are quite blind now. A few months will clear the air. Hopefully. In any case, I remain optimistic about future movement. We have crossed the densest year (2007), we have a potentially-equally-dense-but-probably-less-dense 2008 ahead of us followed by a very weak 2009. Unfortunately, 2010 is again quite dense - but that is not of immediate concern.

PS> Look at how the Chinese EB2 demand has fallen from a cliff around 2007. I won't be surprised of EB21 follows the same pattern with some delay.
PPS> If you have not watched yet, please see the recent South Park episodes about Mexican immigrants going back - its funny because its true (almost).

[mesan123]

Oh ok.. i also work full time , i got my visa stamped with no issues as i mentioned to you. so i think she should not have any problem, ALL THE BEST. but in the mean time get all your documents for EAD ready so that she can file as soon as she is back


Thank you for a detailed reply.

No she is not in a consultancy company.

I think this is possibly the best time for her to go because once you file for 485, it can be risky to travel without a AP or EAD because the consular officer or the officer at POE can easily see that she has filed for a 485.

Any thoughts, anyone?

[mysati]

Thanks tackle, evoori, Nishant, trackright, vizcard and imdeng for your suggestions and the links!

Yes, I do have a valid stamp (until next Oct) and I will let you all know once I find more info about the FP process.


Here is my comments on this:
1. Do you already have a valid visa stamped on your passport? Or do you need to go stamping when you are in India? My lawyers advised my friend to not leave country until he gets AP

2. I think the lawyers could fill out the forms in a way that they'll get FP notice. But I'm not 100% sure about that. I haven't got my notice yet. When I do, I'll let you know if my lawyers get it or if I get it.

3. Copy pasted from uscis webpage:


So, it is possible to reschedule FP. Now, it is up to you to decide what's the best course to take. I understand how travel to India is a commitment and it could be difficult to reschedule due to various reasons. Discuss with your lawyer (start discussion right away as you mentioned they are slow to respond) and ask for their opinion. Also, you've said that your lawyer is slow (to respond). So, is there a guarantee that they'll send your applications before you leave to India? I think the applicants must actually be in US at the time of application. All the best!.

[Pedro Gonzales]

129 Views for the thread asking the number of perms per person......... but nobody is willing to add their details. Hm!!!!!!!

Add the request and url to your signature. And stop deleting your posts, so people look at the signature. It'll drive more traffic there.

Also, the vast majority of views are generally by guests who can't post since they haven't registered yet. Q, is there a way we can make certain threads open to comments from guests?

[RRRRRR]

Hi All,

Congratulations to all who got current.....

Hi frenzyrider,

As advised by someone plan this knowing that this trip is critical and the timelines for filling too..this is how i would do incase the 485 cannot be filed before leaving for INDIA which seems to be your case. Most importantly get the visa date as close to her landing date so that you get some extra time.

1) Get medicals done for you and for your wife before she leaves.Remember TB test takes 24-48 hours for the result to show up so you may want to get them ASAP
2) Get the birth certificate and other document in order.
3) Fill the forms and send to attorney for validation only, remember your wife's 485 and 765 will have to be updated because she will have to fill the POE and date once she returns
4) once she returns you can sign the documents and send the final package.

Thanks...





If it is a true family medical emergency, then don't even think about anything else. Just go. Since she is going for stamping too and staying there for 4 weeks, it would help if she did it as soon as she arrives in India. This will give enough time to resolve any issue if they arise. Do not worry about denials etc - they are mostly overblown because people who face issues are more vocal than people who have a smooth experience. This gives a false impression that it is difficult to get the visa stamped.

In mean time you need to do the leg work and follow up with attorneys and get paperwork in order - esp. birth and marriage certificates and medical exam. Once your wife returns and completes her medical exam, you can file without any issues.