EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[suninphx]

That is only for India. You would have to do the same for China and ROW.

Also, I think only applicant is included in I-485. Therefore, Visa Numbers needed is higher (around 2.05 / applicant). Therefore, regular quota for India is 2,805 / 2.05 = 1,368 I-485 applications. Thus porters are 4882 - 1368 = 3,512.

Now assume 3,500 applicants for India. Add 1,500 for China and ROW (just guessing need to analyze the data further) and you arrive at around 6,000 porters. I believe this is the number that has been thrown around in this forum.

EDIT: Apparently 3,500 + 1,500 = 5,000 and not 6,000 as I mention above. Stupid mathematics :). But I think you get the idea.
I think inventory includes primary as well dependents.

[immi2910]

looks like the inventory as of October 1st

The EB2ROW+EB1 together has around 25k, looks like majority of this (75% atleast) is waiting on 140 approval to get processed and that could be the proper reason behind the big movement for EB2IC in last 2 bulletins


I dont think so. I think PWMB's are counted in this inventory maybe?

No it is up to Oct 1. It says so here - http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

[immi2910]

That is only for India. You would have to do the same for China and ROW.

Also, I think only applicant is included in I-485. Therefore, Visa Numbers needed is higher (around 2.05 / applicant). Therefore, regular quota for India is 2,805 / 2.05 = 1,368 I-485 applications. Thus porters are 4882 - 1368 = 3,512.

Now assume 3,500 applicants for India. Add 1,500 for China and ROW (just guessing need to analyze the data further) and you arrive at around 6,000 porters. I believe this is the number that has been thrown around in this forum.

EDIT: Apparently 3,500 + 1,500 = 5,000 and not 6,000 as I mention above. Stupid mathematics :). But I think you get the idea.


I think inventory includes primary as well dependents.

Yes. You are correct, which renders my analysis incorrect.

From USCIS website explaining how to read the report - http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=5e170e6bcb7e3210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=24b0a6c515083210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?

A: Although this pending inventory report is intended to provide information about demand for an immigrant visa and give potential employment-based immigrants an idea of where they stand in line for a visa, it does not include all potential employment-based immigrants. This report contains principal and dependent employment-based I-485s pending at USCIS Service Centers and Field Offices. It does not include cases pending consular processing at overseas posts. It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing. Please note, therefore, that there are likely many individuals with an earlier priority date than your own who do not currently appear on the inventory, either because they are awaiting consular processing or because they have not filed an I-485.

[grnwtg]

These numbers are always a question mark. <14k sofad is very low when compared to our calculations, are we missing something???
now loosing hope that dates will move any inch in this whole year...


When one compares the june 2011 inventory v/s Oct inventory for EB2I the difference is 13571 which is what we got as SOFAD for FY2011. I am trying to understand why the Demand data used for determination of Nov 2011 bulletin says EB2I pending before Jan 1 2008 is 1275 The one on uscis inventory shows 8965. Why are these numbers too wide apart. DOS numbers are not just the consular posts but also includes cis numbers (thats what it says). Does anyone has any logical explanation.

[nishant2200]

It's ironical that they say they want potential applicant to know where they stand in line, but dont allow floodgates for entry, otherwise if I am not in line at all, how the heck wud I know where I stand


Yes. You are correct, which renders my analysis incorrect.

From USCIS website explaining how to read the report - http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=5e170e6bcb7e3210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=24b0a6c515083210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?

A: Although this pending inventory report is intended to provide information about demand for an immigrant visa and give potential employment-based immigrants an idea of where they stand in line for a visa, it does not include all potential employment-based immigrants. This report contains principal and dependent employment-based I-485s pending at USCIS Service Centers and Field Offices. It does not include cases pending consular processing at overseas posts. It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing. Please note, therefore, that there are likely many individuals with an earlier priority date than your own who do not currently appear on the inventory, either because they are awaiting consular processing or because they have not filed an I-485.

[nishant2200]

Frankly these numbers I have always seen higher pending than demand data, as well as these do not show reduction- addition due to Oct and Nov VB. the report with those in will be the real help.

I still stick with somewhere in Jan 2008 as prediction for Dec VB. that is the most logical thing to do for CO.


These numbers are always a question mark. <14k sofad is very low when compared to our calculations, are we missing something???
now loosing hope that dates will move any inch in this whole year...

[Reader]

What happened to the theory that the four month delay in PWD for PERM would benefit EB2-IC by giving more SOFAD this year. Does that still hold good? Why the optimism that existed for the last couple of weeks is now slowly fading away?

[narendarrao]

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

[qblogfan]

Wow!!! It's great news!

Thanks for sharing! I hope this website has some credibility!

I copied from the website provided by narendarrao.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins.


Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

[pdmay2008]

It's ironical that they say they want potential applicant to know where they stand in line, but dont allow floodgates for entry, otherwise if I am not in line at all, how the heck wud I know where I stand

Well said. We do not have any clarity where we stand today and tomorrow. But we are all standing in a virtual lane. Hopefully we will join the physical lane in near future.

[Reader]

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.



Really good news. Is it even possible / allowed for CO to share his plans / thoughts to one particular Attorney??

[nishant2200]

Now its Diwali! Let the fireworks begin. Narendra sir, I bow down to you.


Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

[nishant2200]

Really good news. Is it even possible / allowed for CO to share his plans / thoughts to one particular Attorney??

reader they say: "Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. " I think this must be a general discussion with stakeholders, not just this law firm. I am pretty sure other law firms or stake holders might be present.

Honestly, whatever they have written, now makes sense with what CO put in last VB about prediction for future movement, as well as the NVC fee bills.

[pdmay2008]

reader they say: "Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. " I think this must be a general discussion with stakeholders, not just this law firm. I am pretty sure other law firms or stake holders might be present.

Honestly, whatever they have written, now makes sense with what CO put in last VB about prediction for future movement, as well as the NVC fee bills.


I hope this becomes true in next couple of bulletins. But the current released data is not supporting where this plan heading towards.

[mygctracker]

Thanks for sharing.

Appears to be credible from horse mouth...

"EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen."



Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

[sandeep11]

It looks credible.

We should watch for any AILA updates too, usually they are fast enough to put any discussion with CO on their website. We whould watch for them to publish if they were part of the stakeholders ( 100% they should be).

But looks like it is good news, especially after this inventory data that was released and messed up our brains. Probably we should be seeing an early VB for Dec.




reader they say: "Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. " I think this must be a general discussion with stakeholders, not just this law firm. I am pretty sure other law firms or stake holders might be present.

Honestly, whatever they have written, now makes sense with what CO put in last VB about prediction for future movement, as well as the NVC fee bills.

[qblogfan]

It's great news released in Diwali! Maybe Mr.Co wants our Indian friends to have a good new year!

Bow to Narendra Sir! Bow to Nishant Bhai! Diwali is great!


Now its Diwali! Let the fireworks begin. Narendra sir, I bow down to you.

[soggadu]

awesomeeeeeeeeeeeeeee news....would be great for many of our friends who are waiting ....

[nishant2200]

I hope this becomes true in next couple of bulletins. But the current released data is not supporting where this plan heading towards.

I don't agree. Always pending report shows strange numbers and higher than demand data, and this report is not having anything from Oct VB movement. Also I really think CO wants 30k + some buffer, and since Nov VB applications filed can only show up in complete numbers in December, and he needs to release Dec VB in November 8th around, this is golden opportunity to advance, which he also seems to think so, and once he gets to January VB, he will have more grip on how much applications a date movement may bring in. Dec VB as we have maintained, is the really golden chance to make a movement as huge one can.

[nishant2200]

Even OH Law Firm website is quick to put up good bits of information, and it's free for people as compared to AILA, so lets keep an eye there also.


It looks credible.

We should watch for any AILA updates too, usually they are fast enough to put any discussion with CO on their website. We whould watch for them to publish if they were part of the stakeholders ( 100% they should be).

But looks like it is good news, especially after this inventory data that was released and messed up our brains. Probably we should be seeing an early VB for Dec.

[qblogfan]

I agree with you completely!

In October's report, he could only see 2-3k new 485 cases.

In November around 8k people will file 485, but he will see these numbers in December.

So the next VB is the golden opportunity to move dates. He will see 10k new cases on his table in December and he will consider twice when he moves PD for January VB. For Feburary VB, he will see at least 20k new cases on his table and he will think 3 times for March VB. The opposition will become much stronger with the increase of demand.


I don't agree. Always pending report shows strange numbers and higher than demand data, and this report is not having anything from Oct VB movement. Also I really think CO wants 30k + some buffer, and since Nov VB applications filed can only show up in complete numbers in December, and he needs to release Dec VB in November 8th around, this is golden opportunity to advance, which he also seems to think so, and once he gets to January VB, he will have more grip on how much applications a date movement may bring in. Dec VB as we have maintained, is the really golden chance to make a movement as huge one can.

[qesehmk]

the current released data doesn't point in any direction other than may be that USCIS needs to replenish EB2IC inventory.

Even the dates that are current today i.e. Oct 2007 doesn't help a lot to replenish the inventory. So there is quite a lot scope there.

As I have said many times... the least the dates could move is upto Jan 2008. Other than that sky is the limit and CO can move wherever HE wants. The only disclaimer I would put is that if he goes beyond Apr 2008 then he will likely retrogress to Apr 2008.

Anyway ... gr8 post by narendrarao! Thanks! You posted wonderful news on Diwali.

Whoever posted on Fragomen.... don't feel bad about it. Fragomen could simply be trying to be conservative. Its very natural for a lawyer to be conservative.

I hope this becomes true in next couple of bulletins. But the current released data is not supporting where this plan heading towards.

[skpanda]

Gr8 news on Diwali...

Wish all the guyz with PD before April 2008 .. a very good luck.. in next 2 bulletins....

Also wish and pray that Mr. CO moves the dates far beyond April 2008...



thank you, may the force be with you! Yes, right now only we two are signed users the blog shows. You won't believe me, even at night 3 am if I wake up to go to restroom, I check out the forum on iphone :D

If I wake up at 5 am I can't sleep after that, I have become restless.

I am pretty sure we shall be kicked out of our posts here on all this, I will PM you for emailing contact :)

I hear u.. i do the same on my phone...at the middle of the night...sometimes (during VB release dates) multiple times in the night....


haha, cool! You are the "REAL" fan of Q's blog. I should change my name to "2ndqblogfan".

My friend, thank you, have a good sleep and take care! I wish you will get GC ASAP!

PS: Sorry for the unrelated posts. Maybe you can remove my posts tomorrow.

QBF... i am a big fan of you buddy... I wish and pray you get a chance to file EAD/AP in next few months and you get a well deserved vacation back to your home country after a veryyyyyy long time.... May God bless you...

[pch053]

This sounds like a great news and if it holds true for the next couple of bulletins, many of our fellow bloggers will be current in Dec itself and enjoy the holiday season better. I have been keeping an eye on trackitt approvals and there is still a steady flow of EB2-I approvals coming in (other than today; maybe USCIS is also celebrating Diwali). For the month of Oct, we have 130+ EB2-I approvals and qblogfan pointed out earlier that there have been significant number (> 100) of EB2C approvals too in mittbs. Combining the above two might constitute a significant chunk of EB2I+C who got current in Oct, meaning the pending EB2I queue is diminishing fast. I do see a few people in trackitt reporting that they haven't been approved yet or the case is stuck somewhere but this number has also decreased exponentially in the last couple of weeks. So, all in all things look promising for EB2I+C at this point of time.

[grnwtg]

This is great news if he really moves dates as he mentioned...
Diwali mood is not going away.
Best of luck for all You...


Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

[smuggymba]

It looks like EB1 India will become backlogged as well. There are 2,263 applications pending in 2011 alone. It does not bode well for EB2 IC in future years.

Infosys and CTS on a roll.

[kd2008]

Markup of HR3012 underway right now.

http://mfile.akamai.com/65764/live/r...p=39655&prop=n

[tanu_75]

Awesome news and absolutely great find. But I won't keep my hopes up, better to keep it low on the expectations. I think the following point was also interesting :

He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

So it looks like even if he moves dates this month, he may keep those dates for a while and only retrogress when visas become available. So maybe a 4-5 month window to file for the lucky folks?

[self.coach]

Guys,

My lawyer just sent me this email:

Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, each green card application case is “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children). However, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few months. On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

[grnwtg]

That great, so this is definetly geniune new, MR.CO just should think in same manner for couple of more months as he is thinking now.

As i was telling previously this is the most sensible act for him to do. Hopefully it will become reality..


Guys,

My lawyer just sent me this email:

Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, each green card application case is “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children). However, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few months. On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

[nishant2200]

Thank you friend, if possible can u tell us a bit about ur law firm, and whether this was sent as newsletter etc.


Guys,

My lawyer just sent me this email:

Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, each green card application case is “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children). However, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few months. On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

[familyguy]

Awesome news Mr.Rao... I sincerely wish this is true and will happen :)


Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

[grnwtg]

Here is similar prediction for 2011 last year incase if any one want to judge this prediction.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2010/09/23/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim/





Thank you friend, if possible can u tell us a bit about ur law firm, and whether this was sent as newsletter etc.

[self.coach]

Thank you friend, if possible can u tell us a bit about ur law firm, and whether this was sent as newsletter etc.

It is originally from a newsletter copy-pasted by my lawyer

The newsletter I see is from Capitol Immigration - the link provided by Rao in his post.

[shreyasai2004]

This link is not working and showing Access Denied.




Markup of HR3012 underway right now.

http://mfile.akamai.com/65764/live/r...p=39655&prop=n

[Reader]

Thank you friend, if possible can u tell us a bit about ur law firm, and whether this was sent as newsletter etc.

My guess is that it is from the same law firm for which Rao has published the link last night. The wordings are exact.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

[Eb2_Dec07]

Here is similar prediction for 2011 last year incase if any one want to judge this prediction.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2010/09/23/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim/

CIlaw is a pretty reputed organization and very well known to have access to DOS /USCIS inner circles. I think it is a good one. Def great news

[swagsur]

Very good News Folks.


Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

[rdsingh79]

Instructions for Fragomen to folks in our company remains unchanged....they wants folks with PD post Oct 2007 to be ready with I-485 documents in anticipation of dates moving forward.


Well that is so disappointing to hear. Fragomen is a very reputed law firm and I remember someone in this forum mentioned that some of their friends ( with PDs in Jan 2008) were asked to be prepared and be ready with the documents by Fragomen.

I guess it was rdsingh....rdsingh, do you have any insight or info on this??

[kd2008]

KD , great news! Happy Diwali!

Happy Diwali to you too!

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks Narendra for posting. Since this commentary comes from the man himself it lends it good credibility. This is very much in line with our prediction as well that the next VB will cross 2007 atleast. Q1 2008 folks are borderline and best of luck to everyone. May force be with us and hope maximum number of people get to file for 485. Friends I urge all of you to not get carried away because the projections of the agencies keep changing very quickly often to extremes, good luck to everyone. The volume of intake is entirely discretionary however I believe they will not try to overshoot the consumption this year by a very big number because then it will prevent them from justifying the same for next year. Here is a chart purely out of my gut feel; I also pray that as many people get to file for 485. I do believe that the movement should happen in the next bulletin itself, if delayed the result will be lesser.
01-JAN-2008 - 100%
15-JAN-2008 - 75%
01-FEB-2008 - 50%
15-FEB-2008 - 30%
01-MAR-2008 - 20%
01-APR-2008 - 10%
"EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen."

[nishant2200]

Here is similar prediction for 2011 last year incase if any one want to judge this prediction.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2010/09/23/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim/

Ok, I clearly remember reading these words but somewhere else. So it proves to me:
1. CILA was not alone here, this is a stakeholders forum, and like last year, we should see this news trickling up in other law firms and AILA, NIU kind of stakeholders websites and newsletters.
2. Porting was considered a huge menace by them last year, they were frightened out of their socks, but it turns out that the SO was larger and Porting took a bit of a backseat to weak economy.
3. Parts of the stuff are generic like the introduction etc. but the part about the prediction is different. the part which even self.coach says he got emailed from his lawyer.

CO himself clearly mentioned in last years beginnings bulletin, that he expects EB2 India to move none, while China none to two weeks, in line with what's written here for 2010, unlike this years beginnings bulletin where he says significant move expected in future.

Compare his prediction in Dec 2010 Visa Bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5197.html

to the prediction he put in Nov 2011 Visa Bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5572.html

Guys, the policy of move in early Fiscal Year, that he himself mentions, will help people get in at least, it's not about giving GC, but being ready, and as mentioned by me earlier, is totally in line with his strategy with F2A last year, as well as it helps him take away the stuff of porting (random intermittent phenomena), USCIS variables like 140 backlog, processing times etc. out of the equation to bother him.

[leo07]

Teddy, Q,Nishanth,Veni,

I have not seen CO make such gutsy vb movements and statements like these before. I'm thinking that there is certainly a policy change or pressure from above to keep the line moving or in anticipation of some policy change to be revealed. It's definitely welcome news news for all our EBIC community.

That said, we all know for fact there's only 'n' number of toffees for EB2IC like each year and people would storm CIS with SR and congressional requests starting January 1st. So, IMHO, CO is betting with enough information and we must all celebrate if dates move forward for next 2 vbs.

[krishnav]

Nishant...good news for you..you will definetely get to apply Next month...very happy for you!! Good luck!!


Ok, I clearly remember reading these words but somewhere else. So it proves to me:
1. CILA was not alone here, this is a stakeholders forum, and like last year, we should see this news trickling up in other law firms and AILA, NIU kind of stakeholders websites and newsletters.
2. Porting was considered a huge menace by them last year, they were frightened out of their socks, but it turns out that the SO was larger and Porting took a bit of a backseat to weak economy.
3. Parts of the stuff are generic like the introduction etc. but the part about the prediction is different. the part which even self.coach says he got emailed from his lawyer.

CO himself clearly mentioned in last years beginnings bulletin, that he expects EB2 India to move none, while China none to two weeks, in line with what's written here for 2010, unlike this years beginnings bulletin where he says significant move expected in future.

Compare his prediction in Dec 2010 Visa Bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5197.html

to the prediction he put in Nov 2011 Visa Bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5572.html

Guys, the policy of move in early Fiscal Year, that he himself mentions, will help people get in at least, it's not about giving GC, but being ready, and as mentioned by me earlier, is totally in line with his strategy with F2A last year, as well as it helps him take away the stuff of porting (random intermittent phenomena), USCIS variables like 140 backlog, processing times etc. out of the equation to bother him.

[nishant2200]

Thanks for sharing, appreciate it, already have this information from a State Department source we all have available.

Mr. XYZ
Address etc...

This message is intended only for the addressee(s) and may contain information that is confidential and highly privileged. Any unauthorized use is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.

In a message dated 10/27/2011 10:09:07 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time, me@company.com writes:
Dear Mr. XYZ,
I thought I will share this with you. May help many of your clients including family based.
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/
Looks like some stakeholders meeting like AILA with Mr. Oppenheim in DC.
Thanks,
Nishant

[nishant2200]

Murthy puts newflash:


NewsFlash! EB2 Cutoff of March 1, 2008 Expected in December!
Posted 27.Oct.2011
The cutoff date for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China is expected to advance to at least March 1, 2008 in the December 2011 Visa Bulletin. This prediction is reliable, as we received it directly from Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa and Control Division, U.S. Department of State. The continued forward movement will allow for many additional individuals to pursue the final stage of their permanent residence (green card) cases in December 2011. More details and predictions for the future will be provided for MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.

[familyguy]

Thank you god.. thank q, thank q, thank q, thank q


Murthy puts newflash:


NewsFlash! EB2 Cutoff of March 1, 2008 Expected in December!
Posted 27.Oct.2011
The cutoff date for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China is expected to advance to at least March 1, 2008 in the December 2011 Visa Bulletin. This prediction is reliable, as we received it directly from Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa and Control Division, U.S. Department of State. The continued forward movement will allow for many additional individuals to pursue the final stage of their permanent residence (green card) cases in December 2011. More details and predictions for the future will be provided for MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.

[polapragada]

Murthy puts newflash:


NewsFlash! EB2 Cutoff of March 1, 2008 Expected in December!
Posted 27.Oct.2011
The cutoff date for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China is expected to advance to at least March 1, 2008 in the December 2011 Visa Bulletin. This prediction is reliable, as we received it directly from Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa and Control Division, U.S. Department of State. The continued forward movement will allow for many additional individuals to pursue the final stage of their permanent residence (green card) cases in December 2011. More details and predictions for the future will be provided for MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.


Nishant - Can you post the Murthy link? I don't see this news flash there! did they removed it or what?

BTW I am with a confused heart now..my PD is 07MAR2008 hoping some day I will cross that small hurdle

[Eb2_Dec07]

Nishant - Can you post the Murthy link? I don't see this news flash there! did they removed it or what?

BTW I am with a confused heart now..my PD is 07MAR2008 hoping some day I will cross that small hurdle

Pola, dont lose heart , that is the minimum they are expecting . In case if you miss by few days you will be current in the next vb . We are all in it together. let's hope for the best .

[nishant2200]

Nishant - Can you post the Murthy link? I don't see this news flash there! did they removed it or what?

BTW I am with a confused heart now..my PD is 07MAR2008 hoping some day I will cross that small hurdle

polar, it's right there on their home page. http://murthy.com/

[polapragada]

Pola, dont lose heart , that is the minimum they are expecting . In case if you miss by few days you will be current in the next vb . We are all in it together. let's hope for the best .

I did not lost it dude..little confusued that all. I don't mind waiting one more year even. I am not a kind of who will die next month if he won't get GC. take it easy

[polapragada]

polar, it's right there on their home page. http://murthy.com/

Thanks I see it now..

[qesehmk]

Guys sorry to interrupt the excitement here...

If you haven't done so already and are interested can you please vote the the charity of your choice for next month?

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=7

Thanks in advance for your vote. (Not asking for your money. We donate the advertising revenue from this site.)

[08OCT2008]

I am fascinated by the workings of human thought process and how past experiences affect our comments here in this prediction forum. Here we are getting information from Law firms (which are mostly conservative) that has received the information from the horse’s mouth which is very well in lines with the prediction made by the Gurus, yet we want to be cautious and not be over optimistic. I have always believed that Mr. CO was cautiously optimistic and leaned towards the conservative side which was evident from April 2010 comments about the movement and availability of 12 K extra visas. Remember here too Gurus predication is what came true at the end of the FY which made us think that our expectation were not met after the initial movement in May 2010. But now here he says that he will keep moving the dates until a visa number is available which is 3-4 months away (from: 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated) so I think we should see movement till Feb bulletin. So I believe the Gurus prediction during the early stages of FY i.e. before Mr CO’s comments will still come true by the end of FY.

[natvyas]

Based on the information trickling in from law firms I think the dates will move atleast to 1 Mar 08 because the CO has been these comments in forum and the guys credibility is on the line UNLESS he can come up with a very strong reason not to do so.

[familyguy]

user 'anothersoul' on murthy posted following text on oct/24/2011...

I read that American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) was scheduled to interact with Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at the US Department of State (DOS) this month where it was expected that Mr. Charles would shed some light on the demand for visas in different immigration categories and progression of priority dates for countries with backlog (India, China, etc..) in Employment based category for FY 2012. Waiting to hear the news from the meeting!
http://forum.murthy.com/index.php?/topic/27258-aila-meeting/

It looks like there was scheduled meeting between AILA and DOS yesterday...

[familyguy]

From Ron Gotcher
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15576&p=64263#post64263

That is a summary of the Department of State - AILA October liaison meeting. Here is the actual text of the minutes:

Q29. Can you please give us predictions for the upcoming year for family and employment based immigrant visa numbers?

A29. Visa availability during the first half of FY‐2012:

FAMILY‐SPONSORED CATEGORIES

Worldwide dates: F1: three to six weeks F2A: three to six weeks F2B: one or two weeks F3: one or two weeks F4: up to one month

EMPLOYMENT‐BASED CATEGORIES

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide, Mexico, Philippines: Current
China and India: Significant cut‐off date movement between now and February. Such movement will not be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and there is a possibility for retrogression of the cut‐off during the summer months.

Employment Third:

Worldwide: up to one month China: one to three weeks India: one or two weeks
Mexico: up to one month Philippines: up to one month

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current

Please be advised that these estimates are subject to fluctuations in demand. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

[mrhyderabad]

Please can anyone shed some light on PD March 6th 2009 EB2-I.

[grnwtg]

Its little doubtfull that your date can current this year, i say 15-20% chances, but if dates really to april or may 2008 this year( which is like 60-70% chance), then you have chance to file for 485/EAD next year.

Please can anyone shed some light on PD March 6th 2009 EB2-I.

[Airbender]

My PD is EB-2I July'09.....and I have a job offer with a start-up.

There are lot of opportunity for growth in this company , stock-options etc. I am in non-IT field.

Any advice if this is a good time to make a move , considering a lot of excitement from CO message and HR3012?

[mrhyderabad]

Thanks grnwtg. I hope I can get EAD at least next year and switch job after 180 days.

[SmileBaba]

Teddy/Gurus: What according to you would be the latest date for Eb2I to get green card this year? I know there is a high possibility of people till Feb/Mar 2008 to file 485 this year, but what do you think would be the latest date to get GC in this current fiscal year?

Also if USCIS processes 140,00 green cards every year, then does it counts for both approved + denied (I-485) cases, or 140,000 should just be the number of approved (I-485) cases in a fiscal year?

Thanks in advance.


01-JAN-2008 - 100%
15-JAN-2008 - 75%
01-FEB-2008 - 50%
15-FEB-2008 - 30%
01-MAR-2008 - 20%
01-APR-2008 - 10%

[pdmay2008]

Teddy/Gurus: What according to you would be the latest date for Eb2I to get green card this year? I know there is a high possibility of people till Feb/Mar 2008 to file 485 this year, but what do you think would be the latest date to get GC in this current fiscal year?

Also if USCIS processes 140,00 green cards every year, then does it counts for both approved + denied (I-485) cases, or 140,000 should just be the number of approved (I-485) cases in a fiscal year?

Thanks in advance.

It counts only 140000 approved numbers. Does not matter how many they denied.

[qesehmk]

For Jul 09 EB2I, it could take 3 years. Its your choice. I would change the company if I were you.
My PD is EB-2I July'09.....and I have a job offer with a start-up.

There are lot of opportunity for growth in this company , stock-options etc. I am in non-IT field.

Any advice if this is a good time to make a move , considering a lot of excitement from CO message and HR3012?

[Airbender]

Good advice Q.
For Jul 09 EB2I, it could take 3 years. Its your choice. I would change the company if I were you.

[girish989]

Q, Just curious, if the pd is moved to mar 2008 this month, it would take 3 years for one year worth of movement..... :confused: .... hmmm

[venkimakthal]

Hope mine PD April 8, 2008 will be in new year Jan 2012 VB

[qesehmk]

Unfortunately it is based on what I didn't do and thought could've done and furthered by career :(
I will be glad if it works out well for you!

Good advice Q.


Q, Just curious, if the pd is moved to mar 2008 this month, it would take 3 years for one year worth of movement..... :confused: .... hmmm
That's because then next year the date would move to Mar 2009. And then for Jul 2009 to arrive it will take another year (if QSP doesn't occur). If QSP happens in 2013 then people with PD Jul 2009 might get lucky 6 months earlier. Makes sense?

[tnayar78]

Re: Charles Oppenheim : EB-2 China and India will advance significantly

As I have been writing for the past couple of months, the Visa Office needs to see to it that as many green card applications (both AOS and CP) are filed as early in the year as possible. The idea is to give the USCIS as much time as possible to process AOS cases so that they don't wind up wasting visas under the quota by failing to approve a sufficient number of applications before September 30th. I would not be surprised to see EB2 China and India cutoff dates move into mid or even late 2008 before the end of Spring. Worldwide EB3 will likely advance about a month in each of the next several Visa Bulletins.

[Airbender]

I missed a similar opportunity before seeing the stock price of that company today....so dont want to miss this one.[QUOTE=qesehmk;12006]Unfortunately it is based on what I didn't do and thought could've done and furthered by career :(
I will be glad if it works out well for you!

[asankaran]

Q,

I would suggest people make decisions based on the demand data that has documented I-485 between July-Nov 2007. I think only then we can say how far the dates could move. Some of the PERM related assumptions may drastically change as I am expecting demand destruction in later part of 2008 till first quarter of 2010.


Unfortunately it is based on what I didn't do and thought could've done and furthered by career :(
I will be glad if it works out well for you!



That's because then next year the date would move to Mar 2009. And then for Jul 2009 to arrive it will take another year (if QSP doesn't occur). If QSP happens in 2013 then people with PD Jul 2009 might get lucky 6 months earlier. Makes sense?

[qesehmk]

oh i agree. i think everyobdy should make their own informed decision.
Q,

I would suggest people make decisions based on the demand data that has documented I-485 between July-Nov 2007. I think only then we can say how far the dates could move. Some of the PERM related assumptions may drastically change as I am expecting demand destruction in later part of 2008 till first quarter of 2010.

[SmileBaba]

Friends,
On the USCIS's 485 checklist documents I have not seen any requirement to submit Pay-stubs or W2 along with I-485; then why almost all lawyers ask to submit them?
Anyway my fear is that my last 2 year w2's have lower salary total, and I don't know how does it affect anybody's 485 approval chances. Kindly share your thoughts.

[suninphx]

Friends,
On the USCIS's 485 checklist documents I have not seen any requirement to submit Pay-stubs or W2 along with I-485; then why almost all lawyers ask to submit them?
Anyway my fear is that my last 2 year w2's have lower salary total, and I don't know how does it affect anybody's 485 approval chances. Kindly share your thoughts.

Is W2 amount less than LCA? (assuming you are on H1B)

[SmileBaba]

Thank you!

It counts only 140000 approved numbers. Does not matter how many they denied.

[SmileBaba]

Is W2 amount less than LCA? (assuming you are on H1B)

Yes it is!

[suninphx]

Yes it is!

Ok in that case take help of a 'good' immigration lawyer

[JJcalifornian]

@murthy.com

NewsFlash! EB2 Cutoff of March 1, 2008 Expected in December!
Posted 27.Oct.2011
The cutoff date for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China is expected to advance to at least March 1, 2008 in the December 2011 Visa Bulletin. This prediction is reliable, as we received it directly from Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa and Control Division, U.S. Department of State. The continued forward movement will allow for many additional individuals to pursue the final stage of their permanent residence (green card) cases in December 2011

[SmileBaba]

Ok in that case take help of a 'good' immigration lawyer

Isn't it right that providing W2 with other I-485 documents is not a requirement?

[Reader]

Question regarding the medicals... If I choose a civil surgeon who is also in my insurance network, would the blood work and vaccination be covered by the insurance?

I have read from few other posts that vaccination was paid by the insurance. I am wondering, would the insurance company treat the claims the same way whether the claim is from my PCP or the civil surgeon in the USCIS list who is also in my PPO network??

[suninphx]

Isn't it right that providing W2 with other I-485 documents is not a requirement?

When you file AOS that time you are required to be in status. W2 >LCA is one of aspects of you being in status. That's where they can ask you W2/ paystubs etc.
So check with lawyer to find out how important this really is- and corrective actions if necessary.HTH

[immi2910]

When you file AOS that time you are required to be in status. W2 >LCA is one of aspects of you being in status. That's where they can ask you W2/ paystubs etc.
So check with lawyer to find out how important this really is- and corrective actions if necessary.HTH

GC is for future employment. I think if your current salary is equal to or greater than LCA amount then you should be fine even if W2 is less than LCA. Also, if the employer states he will be paying the amount in LCA and has ability to pay you should be fine as well.

[SmileBaba]

GC is for future employment. I think if your current salary is equal to or greater than LCA amount then you should be fine even if W2 is less than LCA. Also, if the employer states he will be paying the amount in LCA and has ability to pay you should be fine as well.
Thanks!
Current salary and the current fiscal year total is all well with LCA. I am worried about 2010 and 2009 W2's.
Also employer should be able to demonstrate ability to pay for the green card position.

Gurus:Please comment.

[qesehmk]

SmileBaba,

Your situation is a bit precarious. It is true that GC is future employment. And so it may not hurt you to have historical W2s less than what's mentioned in your I-140.

However it would be a good idea to spend some time with a lawyer and vet this out.

Q

Thanks!
Current salary and the current fiscal year total is all well with LCA. I am worried about 2010 and 2009 W2's.
Also employer should be able to demonstrate ability to pay for the green card position.

Gurus:Please comment.

[suninphx]

GC is for future employment. I think if your current salary is equal to or greater than LCA amount then you should be fine even if W2 is less than LCA. Also, if the employer states he will be paying the amount in LCA and has ability to pay you should be fine as well.

Again- for applying AOS you need to be in status which OP is technically not. When you apply for h1 Extn why do you think they ask you W2 and paystubs? That's because for EOS you need to be in status when you apply. Same logic apply for AOS. Obviously I am not lawyer , hence I suggested OP to check with good immigration lawyer.

[kpt112107]

I did check this with my insurance. (I have same kind of insurance and found surgeon in network)
"ANY VACCINATIONS/TESTS GOING TO GET AS PART OF TRAVEL (IMMIGRATION) REQUIREMENT ARE NOT COVERED BY INSURANCE"
They referred some clause in insurance agreement but i didn't check that.

So, What to do?

As I am expecting my date to be current soon, I talked to doctor and asked for appointment to have vaccinations and told him to check with insurance whether they are going to cover or not?

Doctor talked to insurance and he said they are going to cover those. I went and had vaccinations (Hep A, Hep B, TDAP booster) and took blood to test for MMR, Vericella & Syphillis to find out those vaccines are necessary or not. (The above vaccinations I had are not mandatory for my age, but took it bcoz of free).

If he tells me that I need to have those after test results then I will get those. (Remember I have to pay co-pay each time)

I will take appointment for TB test once after my date become current. I may need to pay for this. (may not be covered by insurance)

I am delaying TB test appointment bcoz of my lawyer strictly instructed me not to take Doctor appoint till dates become current.



Question regarding the medicals... If I choose a civil surgeon who is also in my insurance network, would the blood work and vaccination be covered by the insurance?

I have read from few other posts that vaccination was paid by the insurance. I am wondering, would the insurance company treat the claims the same way whether the claim is from my PCP or the civil surgeon in the USCIS list who is also in my PPO network??

[SmileBaba]

Again- for applying AOS you need to be in status which OP is technically not. When you apply for h1 Extn why do you think they ask you W2 and paystubs? That's because for EOS you need to be in status when you apply. Same logic apply for AOS. Obviously I am not lawyer , hence I suggested OP to check with good immigration lawyer.

Lawyer suggests that for AOS you are required to be in status since your last entry to USA.
Suninphx:Never heard of an applicant/lawyer providing W2 while filing for H1 extension. I guess pay-stubs suffice the requirement.

[suninphx]

Lawyer suggests that for AOS you are required to be in status since your last entry to USA.
Suninphx:Never heard of an applicant/lawyer providing W2 while filing for H1 extension. I guess pay-stubs suffice the requirement.

Can't comment on that as I have not applied for one.

You can find numerous posts on net where lawyer suggested to travel outside and come back and then apply for AOS. (that way you have clean slate as far as status goes) but those were good old days when stamping was not much of an issue. :)

[kpt112107]

I don't know W2s are mandatory or not.
But my lawyer asked me W2s for every H1 extn and I-140 also.
I got RFE for I-140, asked for latest W2s and Latest tax returns (from my employer.)

Nothing harm in submitting. Anyway they will know if they really want to know....


Lawyer suggests that for AOS you are required to be in status since your last entry to USA.
Suninphx:Never heard of an applicant/lawyer providing W2 while filing for H1 extension. I guess pay-stubs suffice the requirement.

[gchappy]

Hello,

I have been lurking the discussion board since long and admire everyone's efforts. You guys are all doing great work here. I just wanted to say thank you for bringing a lot of clarity to the entire process.

Now coming to the good news. I just got the email from USCIS about Card/Document production for my I-485 application. I am EB2-I with the priority date of 6/7/07. However I have yet to file for my wife which we will do in the next 2-3 days.

[nishant2200]

You are most welcome friend.

yes, going to the county's public health office (big counties have more than one), is generally cheap and straightforward option. I am glad it worked for you.


Nishant2200 i must say i am really really appreciate on the updates your are providing to the immigration community.i don't know how you are getting this much time to provide the updates .. kudos to you and your effort.

q,Teddy , spec, veni and all other great gurus...thanks a lot for your valuable information.

By the way nishant2200 with your info regarding medicals i am getting all shots freely from community health center (which saves all most 500$ for me and my wife) once again thanks a lot.

[nishant2200]

not to be spoilsport here, congrats, but isn't this going to be a problem, you already got your greencard, while your wife has not yet applied for AOS. I believe your wife's application for AOS should be receipted by them before you get green card, otherwise there might be problems about status. Anyone else chime in here please.


Hello,

I have been lurking the discussion board since long and admire everyone's efforts. You guys are all doing great work here. I just wanted to say thank you for bringing a lot of clarity to the entire process.

Now coming to the good news. I just got the email from USCIS about Card/Document production for my I-485 application. I am EB2-I with the priority date of 6/7/07. However I have yet to file for my wife which we will do in the next 2-3 days.

[grnwtg]

Congrats gchappy...


Hello,

I have been lurking the discussion board since long and admire everyone's efforts. You guys are all doing great work here. I just wanted to say thank you for bringing a lot of clarity to the entire process.

Now coming to the good news. I just got the email from USCIS about Card/Document production for my I-485 application. I am EB2-I with the priority date of 6/7/07. However I have yet to file for my wife which we will do in the next 2-3 days.

[gchappy]

Thanks Nishant, I was concerned about that as well. I checked with my attorney's office and got the following:

"This will not affect your wife's I-485 application, since you were married well before the date of your I-485 approval. We look forward to receiving your wife's signed documents to proceed with her I-485 application."

So this means I can apply for my wife anytime as long as I am married prior to the I-485 approval. This doesn't completely clear the doubts as I can't find any information on case like this on USCIS website or anywhere else.

[nishant2200]

welcome. well if lawyer says its ok, its ok!

unless someone here knows something else, and puts in doubt.

Thanks Nishant, I was concerned about that as well. I checked with my attorney's office and got the following:

"This will not affect your wife's I-485 application, since you were married well before the date of your I-485 approval. We look forward to receiving your wife's signed documents to proceed with her I-485 application."

So this means I can apply for my wife anytime as long as I am married prior to the I-485 approval. This doesn't completely clear the doubts as I can't find any information on case like this on USCIS website or anywhere else.

[MeraGC1]

Friends,

As per CO:

The cutoff date for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China is expected to advance to at least March 1, 2008 in the December 2011 Visa Bulletin. This prediction is reliable, as we received it directly from Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa and Control Division, U.S. Department of State. The continued forward movement will allow for many additional individuals to pursue the final stage of their permanent residence (green card) cases in December 2011. More details and predictions for the future will be provided for MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.
(Source Murthy law firm)

Does that mean he is going to move the dates beyond March/April 2008 in Jan 2012 VB?

Is there any chance that he will move the dates to June/July 2008 in Jan 2012 VB?

[sam96_77]

This was just posted at murthy

The cutoff date for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China is expected to advance to at least March 1, 2008 in the December 2011 Visa Bulletin. This prediction is reliable, as we received it directly from Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa and Control Division, U.S. Department of State. The continued forward movement will allow for many additional individuals to pursue the final stage of their permanent residence (green card) cases in December 2011. More details and predictions for the future will be provided for MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.

[yesman]

That would be awesome, if it does happen. Mine is April 3 2008. I really hope they don't move it to April 1st and stop it there (or retrogress). Good luck to us all


Hope mine PD April 8, 2008 will be in new year Jan 2012 VB

[vizcard]

I really hope CO goes all the way till end 2008 at some point in FY2012. I'm in August 2008 so selfishly I want it to go atleast till end-Aug but it really would be good for others to atleast get the EAD and start the 180 day clock to change jobs. And it really wouldn't "hurt" the DOS/USCIS either - it's a matter of optics at that point.

[valuablehurdle]

Friends:

It is a broken system.

I hope this information helps everyone who are waiting for the GC and their PD is current.

PD 04/15/2007 NSC
RD 08/10/2007
ND 10/10/2007

Here is a synopsis of event:
10/01/11- PD became current
10/03/11 - Openned an SR with L1 officer.
10/06/11 - Contact Congressman M. Doyle (D) office. Visited personally. Told them I am buying a House in there constituency. Showed them my sales agreement.
(REMEMBER: YOU HAVE TO CONTACT THE CONGRESSMAN OF YOUR OWN CONSTITUENCY)
10/07/11 - Got a response from Congressman's office
"After speaking with USCIS today, they are forwarding your case to an officer for review. This should take approximately two or three weeks."

10/14/11 - Got a standard e-mail reponse for the openned SR. "Application pending..wait 90 days ...bla bla bla"

10/25/11 - Contact Senator Toomey's office (R). Visited his office personally. Very formally dressed. Caseworker was really nice. Gave them the paperwork. He promised he will look into it.
10/25/11 - SAME DAY.. got the following response:
"I called the Nebraska Service Center and talked to someone who told me your case is with a review officer currently. There is no timeline for completion, it just depends on what else is on that person’s desk and how fast they can get it done."
10/27/11 - Got Approval.

I hope this helps. Good luck my friends. I am pretty sure everyone will overcome this once they are current.

[grnwtg]

Congrats on your very long journey my Friend. You patience indeed paid off..



Friends:

It is a broken system.

I hope this information helps everyone who are waiting for the GC and their PD is current.

PD 04/15/2007 NSC
RD 08/10/2007
ND 10/10/2007

Here is a synopsis of event:
10/01/11- PD became current
10/03/11 - Openned an SR with L1 officer.
10/06/11 - Contact Congressman M. Doyle (D) office. Visited personally. Told them I am buying a House in there constituency. Showed them my sales agreement.
(REMEMBER: YOU HAVE TO CONTACT THE CONGRESSMAN OF YOUR OWN CONSTITUENCY)
10/07/11 - Got a response from Congressman's office
"After speaking with USCIS today, they are forwarding your case to an officer for review. This should take approximately two or three weeks."

10/14/11 - Got a standard e-mail reponse for the openned SR. "Application pending..wait 90 days ...bla bla bla"

10/25/11 - Contact Senator Toomey's office (R). Visited his office personally. Very formally dressed. Caseworker was really nice. Gave them the paperwork. He promised he will look into it.
10/25/11 - SAME DAY.. got the following response:
"I called the Nebraska Service Center and talked to someone who told me your case is with a review officer currently. There is no timeline for completion, it just depends on what else is on that person’s desk and how fast they can get it done."
10/27/11 - Got Approval.

I hope this helps. Good luck my friends. I am pretty sure everyone will overcome this once they are current.

[veni001]

Friends:

It is a broken system.

I hope this information helps everyone who are waiting for the GC and their PD is current.

PD 04/15/2007 NSC
RD 08/10/2007
ND 10/10/2007

Here is a synopsis of event:
10/01/11- PD became current
10/03/11 - Openned an SR with L1 officer.
10/06/11 - Contact Congressman M. Doyle (D) office. Visited personally. Told them I am buying a House in there constituency. Showed them my sales agreement.
(REMEMBER: YOU HAVE TO CONTACT THE CONGRESSMAN OF YOUR OWN CONSTITUENCY)
10/07/11 - Got a response from Congressman's office
"After speaking with USCIS today, they are forwarding your case to an officer for review. This should take approximately two or three weeks."

10/14/11 - Got a standard e-mail reponse for the openned SR. "Application pending..wait 90 days ...bla bla bla"

10/25/11 - Contact Senator Toomey's office (R). Visited his office personally. Very formally dressed. Caseworker was really nice. Gave them the paperwork. He promised he will look into it.
10/25/11 - SAME DAY.. got the following response:
"I called the Nebraska Service Center and talked to someone who told me your case is with a review officer currently. There is no timeline for completion, it just depends on what else is on that person’s desk and how fast they can get it done."
10/27/11 - Got Approval.

I hope this helps. Good luck my friends. I am pretty sure everyone will overcome this once they are current.

valuablehurdle,
Congratulations, long journey... Happy Ending.

[red2green]

Thanks Nishant, I was concerned about that as well. I checked with my attorney's office and got the following:

"This will not affect your wife's I-485 application, since you were married well before the date of your I-485 approval. We look forward to receiving your wife's signed documents to proceed with her I-485 application."

So this means I can apply for my wife anytime as long as I am married prior to the I-485 approval. This doesn't completely clear the doubts as I can't find any information on case like this on USCIS website or anywhere else.

I was also of the same opinion as Nishant's but glad your lawyer said 'no problem'. good to know this rule. But just curious if your PD is 6/7/07, you should be current for some time now. What were you waiting for without filing your wife's 485(especially when folks with around that PD getting GCs) ?

[nishant2200]

Murthy bulletin is up now: http://murthy.com/bulletin.html

with the late breaking newsflash

[gc_usa]

There are two set of people who are posting information.

Few who didn't attended meeting with CO but got information on AILA site being a member of that group and few who are member of AILA and went to this meeting.

Those who didn't attended saying significant movement is possible from now to Feb 2012 but can't confirm March 2008 for Dec 2011 bulletin. While others like Murthy and few other law firms mentioned that it will be March 1 2008 as they might have heard directly from CO may be after meeting is over.

I would trust Murthy since if it is not even close to confirm she will not post on site home page.

Why CO will move to March 1 2008 ?

If he moves till March 2008 and USCIS start showing more and more demand from PWMB in Jan or later and he can't move date , still he is close to secure mode for this years quota for EB2 IC. If he can move in Jan - Feb 2012 , its a buffer for him.

Lesson learned from GC journey. When USCIS runs out of demand CO is very liberal and when they have enough cases CO is more conservative.

[parsvnath]

I agree Nishant...

Trust me....I need this more than anyone else....My dates are 21st Feb 2008...

[leo07]

Nishanth and all folks waiting for vb to move to march 1 2008,

Please keep a check on your hopes until you see that date on official VB. Don't take me wrong, I want the dates to move to 2008, but have the first hand experience of a let down multiple times before. So, don't make any changes in the way you conduct your business in your professional as well as personal lives yet :)

Best!



Murthy bulletin is up now: http://murthy.com/bulletin.html

with the late breaking newsflash

[leo4ever]

Dude, c'mon lets move it to Nov 1, 2008.


I really hope CO goes all the way till end 2008 at some point in FY2012. I'm in August 2008 so selfishly I want it to go atleast till end-Aug but it really would be good for others to atleast get the EAD and start the 180 day clock to change jobs. And it really wouldn't "hurt" the DOS/USCIS either - it's a matter of optics at that point.

[nishant2200]

I completely agree leo. The professional conduct very true, what u said, dont want to be in bad books, as well as shud not give too high hopes to family yet.


Nishanth and all folks waiting for vb to move to march 1 2008,

Please keep a check on your hopes until you see that date on official VB. Don't take me wrong, I want the dates to move to 2008, but have the first hand experience of a let down multiple times before. So, don't make any changes in the way you conduct your business in your professional as well as personal lives yet :)

Best!

[RMS_V13]

This is the most useful post in this forum in a long long while. Thank you ValuableHurdle for all the great tips.


Friends:

It is a broken system.

I hope this information helps everyone who are waiting for the GC and their PD is current.

PD 04/15/2007 NSC
RD 08/10/2007
ND 10/10/2007

Here is a synopsis of event:
10/01/11- PD became current
10/03/11 - Openned an SR with L1 officer.
10/06/11 - Contact Congressman M. Doyle (D) office. Visited personally. Told them I am buying a House in there constituency. Showed them my sales agreement.
(REMEMBER: YOU HAVE TO CONTACT THE CONGRESSMAN OF YOUR OWN CONSTITUENCY)
10/07/11 - Got a response from Congressman's office
"After speaking with USCIS today, they are forwarding your case to an officer for review. This should take approximately two or three weeks."

10/14/11 - Got a standard e-mail reponse for the openned SR. "Application pending..wait 90 days ...bla bla bla"

10/25/11 - Contact Senator Toomey's office (R). Visited his office personally. Very formally dressed. Caseworker was really nice. Gave them the paperwork. He promised he will look into it.
10/25/11 - SAME DAY.. got the following response:
"I called the Nebraska Service Center and talked to someone who told me your case is with a review officer currently. There is no timeline for completion, it just depends on what else is on that person’s desk and how fast they can get it done."
10/27/11 - Got Approval.

I hope this helps. Good luck my friends. I am pretty sure everyone will overcome this once they are current.

[leo07]

sure, why not Oct 2011 :)

Dude, c'mon lets move it to Nov 1, 2008.

[sandeep11]

Yes Nishant, the best example is this past May where there was a huge expectation 'siginificant movement' as a result of 12K SO from EB1 ( Almost all law firms came up with the news). Finally it turned out to be 3 week movement (for that VB atleast). Later it did catch up. :)

This situation is different now though, CO explicitly mentioned he would be front loading the applications from this Year and his particular mention in the Both the VB for this year.

Lets hope for the best. :rolleyes:




I completely agree leo. The professional conduct very true, what u said, dont want to be in bad books, as well as shud not give too high hopes to family yet.

[veni001]

There are two set of people who are posting information.

Few who didn't attended meeting with CO but got information on AILA site being a member of that group and few who are member of AILA and went to this meeting.

Those who didn't attended saying significant movement is possible from now to Feb 2012 but can't confirm March 2008 for Dec 2011 bulletin. While others like Murthy and few other law firms mentioned that it will be March 1 2008 as they might have heard directly from CO may be after meeting is over.

I would trust Murthy since if it is not even close to confirm she will not post on site home page.

Why CO will move to March 1 2008 ?

If he moves till March 2008 and USCIS start showing more and more demand from PWMB in Jan or later and he can't move date , still he is close to secure mode for this years quota for EB2 IC. If he can move in Jan - Feb 2012 , its a buffer for him.

Lesson learned from GC journey. When USCIS runs out of demand CO is very liberal and when they have enough cases CO is more conservative.

gc_usa,
CO could be hoping to generate enough EB2IC demand for FY2012 spillover season with 01MAR2008 cut off date, if not he can move dates (in Q3 or as soon as he find out demand Vs Supply)

[zztopfan]

Hi Folks,

My PD is EB2 India Dec 2008. When can I expect to be current? Btw, great forum - civil, respectful and people caring for each other. Long it may continue to be so.

[cbpds1]

If there is arnd 35k applicants by march 2008, CO will get more applications only when his bag contains less than 15k , so it all depends on SOFAD, pls look at spec's calculations in 2011 header

Hi Folks,

My PD is EB2 India Dec 2008. When can I expect to be current? Btw, great forum - civil, respectful and people caring for each other. Long it may continue to be so.

[gchappy]

I was also of the same opinion as Nishant's but glad your lawyer said 'no problem'. good to know this rule. But just curious if your PD is 6/7/07, you should be current for some time now. What were you waiting for without filing your wife's 485(especially when folks with around that PD getting GCs) ?

yes I became current since October. But essentially I was taken by surprise by the October bulletin. I just started getting everything together after the bulletin came out. Getting all the documentation together including the medicals and birth certificate affidavits from India took some time plus the attorney prep took some time. I guess I didn't do this as fast as I could.

At the risk of promoting a business, I will mention this. Please remove this comment if it is inadequate. In case if anybody in CA bay area finds it helpful, we visited Dr. Maina Shetty (Hayward, CA)for medical test. She charged about 133 which includes blood work. We had to take TDap which was covered under insurance so we got from a pharmacy.

[zztopfan]

Thanks cbpds1. I am trying to understand everything on this forum. There is lot of number crunching which is impressive. Just wondering, where this 35K applicant number comes from?

[cbpds1]

Sorry there will be arnd 48k applicants before you assuming there is 6k porting by that time.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011







Thanks cbpds1. I am trying to understand everything on this forum. There is lot of number crunching which is impressive. Just wondering, where this 35K applicant number comes from?

[vizcard]

Thanks cbpds1. I am trying to understand everything on this forum. There is lot of number crunching which is impressive. Just wondering, where this 35K applicant number comes from?

I think its ~10K visas for EB2I+25K SOFAD. Gurus?

[cbpds1]

Spec,
in the chart u have mentioned numbers for No porting to 6k porting.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011

Consider 6k porting, just wanted to confirm if you have considered incremental porting of 6k each FY instead of 6k as a whole.
I guess u wud but just wanted to double check.

[zztopfan]

Sorry there will be arnd 48k applicants before you assuming there is 6k porting by that time.

If the cut off date moves to 1st Mar 2008 as widely reported, that would mean they would already be taking in around 35k new applications. Then I also read on Murthy.com bulletin that they are expecting to move the dates in Jan as well as Feb bulletins too. So I would imagine those two latter moves would at least move it to middle of late 2008 (I hope). No ?

[cbpds1]

Since ur pd is dec 2008, it doesnt matter to you if the dates move to mid 2008, since CO wud then have a large buffer and he will concentrate on clearing it (ur wait time increases), only then will he move dates further, so its a function of sofad anyways, guess ill leave it to the gurus now .


If the cut off date moves to 1st Mar 2008 as widely reported, that would mean they would already be taking in around 35k new applications. Then I also read on Murthy.com bulletin that they are expecting to move the dates in Jan as well as Feb bulletins too. So I would imagine those two latter moves would at least move it to middle of late 2008 (I hope). No ?

[zztopfan]

I understand what you mean. Unless I get picked up in this wave, I would have to wait probably till 2012/13. Unless I guess the 3012 becomes law.

[codesmith]

Hi Q/Nishant and experts,
I'm referring to Oct 2011 Inventory Report

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20October%2001 %202011.pdf

USCIS fqa says this report is : The “Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Report,” displays the total number of pending adjustment of status applications,
Whats does it mean ? I140 approved and 485 filed and still not approved
or 485 approved but actual GC not done ?

Why do we see numbers even from yr 2000 ? What does it signify ?

[nishant2200]

http://murthy.com/news/n_vbpred.html

detailed stuff from murthy on the recent predictions

[pch053]

Informative article from murthy.com; if this holds true then EB2-I/C PDs might move well past mid-2008 during 2011 - 2012. The good news is that they are expecting forward movement in Jan and Feb'12 bulletins too.

[grnwtg]

Hi codesmith,

yes, those application means I485 applied ( i think it does not matter if I140 approved or not, Guru's correct me if i am wrong).
and your second question, 485 approved means GC is almost done except that you need card physically.


Hi Q/Nishant and experts,
I'm referring to Oct 2011 Inventory Report

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20October%2001 %202011.pdf

USCIS fqa says this report is : The “Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Report,” displays the total number of pending adjustment of status applications,
Whats does it mean ? I140 approved and 485 filed and still not approved
or 485 approved but actual GC not done ?

Why do we see numbers even from yr 2000 ? What does it signify ?

[codesmith]

If it means 485 approved but GC is not yet handed over.. then is there a reason why we have numbers starting as old as 1998?



Hi codesmith,

yes, those application means I485 applied ( i think it does not matter if I140 approved or not, Guru's correct me if i am wrong).
and your second question, 485 approved means GC is almost done except that you need card physically.

[zztopfan]

Informative article from murthy.com; if this holds true then EB2-I/C PDs might move well past mid-2008 during 2011 - 2012. The good news is that they are expecting forward movement in Jan and Feb'12 bulletins too.

Actually Ron Gotcher says the same too. You can check out his forum to confirm this. As per Ron Gotcher, the PD could move to late 2008 by Spring.

[suninphx]

http://murthy.com/news/n_vbpred.html

detailed stuff from murthy on the recent predictions

This is significant.. given that they are rarely in prediction game and won't comment unless thay have definative source

[yesman]

Could you please provide a link to Ron's forum post. I'm not able to locate it. Thanks!

Actually Ron Gotcher says the same too. You can check out his forum to confirm this. As per Ron Gotcher, the PD could move to late 2008 by Spring.

[zztopfan]

Could you please provide a link to Ron's forum post. I'm not able to locate it. Thanks!

Here is direct quote from his forum

"Re: Charles Oppenheim : EB-2 China and India will advance significantly
As I have been writing for the past couple of months, the Visa Office needs to see to it that as many green card applications (both AOS and CP) are filed as early in the year as possible. The idea is to give the USCIS as much time as possible to process AOS cases so that they don't wind up wasting visas under the quota by failing to approve a sufficient number of applications before September 30th. I would not be surprised to see EB2 China and India cutoff dates move into mid or even late 2008 before the end of Spring. Worldwide EB3 will likely advance about a month in each of the next several Visa Bulletins."

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/charles-oppenheim-eb-2-china-and-india-will-advance-significantly-15576/

[grnwtg]

Sorry i was incomplete in aswering your question, if 485 is approved then most likely it wont be this report unless they are approved very recently. As per my knowledge 95% of people get their gc to hand in less than 1 month.
Yes there are some numbers from 1998 or 99, they might be cases that they some RFE was send to applicant and applicant no longer resides in USA OR it might be that uscis did not clean up data.



If it means 485 approved but GC is not yet handed over.. then is there a reason why we have numbers starting as old as 1998?

[familyguy]

Can I celebrate now ?? :D


http://murthy.com/news/n_vbpred.html

detailed stuff from murthy on the recent predictions

[venkimakthal]

http://murthy.com/news/n_vbpred.html

detailed stuff from murthy on the recent predictions

Good news that EB1 demand is less from your link:
"Other factors that have an impact on EB2 cutoff date movement include usage in EB1 and EB5. In FY11, the demand in EB1 decreased dramatically. This was due to a change in EB1 Extraordinary Ability adjudications standards. This caused a high rate of denials in the EB1 category, along with a good bit of ongoing controversy."

[vizcard]

Good news that EB1 demand is less from your link:
"Other factors that have an impact on EB2 cutoff date movement include usage in EB1 and EB5. In FY11, the demand in EB1 decreased dramatically. This was due to a change in EB1 Extraordinary Ability adjudications standards. This caused a high rate of denials in the EB1 category, along with a good bit of ongoing controversy."

this was for last FY. The positive impact from EB1 might be less this year (FY12).

[veni001]

http://murthy.com/news/n_vbpred.html

detailed stuff from murthy on the recent predictions


I think this is key going forward...

"The DOS monitors the filings to determine whether anticipated demand matches the actual demand for visa numbers."

[mysati]

Based on these lines from Murthy's special bulletin,

There is a possibility that the EB2 cutoff date in December could be even more favorable than March 1, 2008. Since cutoff dates are based on estimates of demand, the DOS will use data regarding early November 2011 adjustment-of-status filings (Form I-485), prior to establishing the December cutoff date.

I am guessing that the Dec VB may come out only on Nov 11th (for them to gauge the demand for around 7 business days). What do you guys think?

[zztopfan]

I think this is key going forward...

"The DOS monitors the filings to determine whether anticipated demand matches the actual demand for visa numbers."

I agree. However I would imagine DOS and USCIS would probably have some idea into the anticipated demand based on PERM/140/Average Porting Data. I mean if we could do it on freelance, then I am sure they could too. Afterall this is their job. My take is that language is just a lawyer speak. I think they already know how the PD movement will look like.

[parsvnath]

How long does it take to get EAD these days? 2 or 3 or 4 months

[pdmay2008]

Based on these lines from Murthy's special bulletin,

There is a possibility that the EB2 cutoff date in December could be even more favorable than March 1, 2008. Since cutoff dates are based on estimates of demand, the DOS will use data regarding early November 2011 adjustment-of-status filings (Form I-485), prior to establishing the December cutoff date.

I am guessing that the Dec VB may come out only on Nov 11th (for them to gauge the demand for around 7 business days). What do you guys think?


I do not think they can guage the demand in 7 businessdays.

Guessing even CO moves cut off date to Mar 2008. They will not be able to get all the demand before December 10th 2011. He will have to move the dates further in Jan bulletin just to be safer side.

My PD is May 2008, trying to see if I can sneak in any of the upcoming bulletins. Good luck to every one.

[suninphx]

I agree. However I would imagine DOS and USCIS would probably have some idea into the anticipated demand based on PERM/140/Average Porting Data. I mean if we could do it on freelance, then I am sure they could too. Afterall this is their job. My take is that language is just a lawyer speak. I think they already know how the PD movement will look like.

Also its not difficult to find out active 140's based on H1 renewals data, if they want to.

[venkimakthal]

I do not think they can guage the demand in 7 businessdays.

Guessing even CO moves cut off date to Mar 2008. They will not be able to get all the demand before December 10th 2011. He will have to move the dates further in Jan bulletin just to be safer side.

My PD is May 2008, trying to see if I can sneak in any of the upcoming bulletins. Good luck to every one.

Mine is April 08, 2008, may be yours and mine will be in Jan 2012 VB, let see

[nishant2200]

I think that for Dec VB, we might get lucky, unless 20k people file I-485 in first few days of November. But for January VB, they will have a rough idea of how much a certain amount of move may fetch. And even for November, it is not completely accurate, because some of the guys from July 15th to August 15th would have just got in during the July 2007 fiasco, so hopefully it would be to our advantage, just a little bit.

I would be highly surprised if we get VB after November 7th. Considering there's thanksgiving holidays too, CO might want to give people proper time to start getting their documents and applications ready, as well as his mind would be made up, unless an anamoly like above suggested. Just a counter thought to the proposed Nov 11th.

I also think they are not that much into how many PERM, how many 140 etc, and are just relying on plain old demand grabbing of 485. They might use that (PERM, 140 etc) for a very very high level rough guesstimate.


I think this is key going forward...

"The DOS monitors the filings to determine whether anticipated demand matches the actual demand for visa numbers."


Based on these lines from Murthy's special bulletin,

There is a possibility that the EB2 cutoff date in December could be even more favorable than March 1, 2008. Since cutoff dates are based on estimates of demand, the DOS will use data regarding early November 2011 adjustment-of-status filings (Form I-485), prior to establishing the December cutoff date.

I am guessing that the Dec VB may come out only on Nov 11th (for them to gauge the demand for around 7 business days). What do you guys think?


I agree. However I would imagine DOS and USCIS would probably have some idea into the anticipated demand based on PERM/140/Average Porting Data. I mean if we could do it on freelance, then I am sure they could too. Afterall this is their job. My take is that language is just a lawyer speak. I think they already know how the PD movement will look like.

[bieber]

Veni

Do you think it's murthy's interpretation or actual CO words? because from the original source we had from narendrarao the law firm who published this first did not mention about receipts/filings. They said CO will gauge the demand (not the filings). I think if CO monitors the filings he may not be able to go to Mar1st 2008 in December bulletin itself

Unless he wants some 40-50k filings, because they are projecting that Jan/Feb bulletins will have similar movement too

[kumar_342]

Guys
Do we need to submit the following for I-485,
# Tax returns for the previous two years;
# W-2 forms for the previous two years;
my lawyer is saying dont have to unless they ask , please suggest

thanks
Kumar

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends:

It is a broken system.

I hope this information helps everyone who are waiting for the GC and their PD is current.

PD 04/15/2007 NSC
RD 08/10/2007
ND 10/10/2007

Here is a synopsis of event:
10/01/11- PD became current
10/03/11 - Openned an SR with L1 officer.
10/06/11 - Contact Congressman M. Doyle (D) office. Visited personally. Told them I am buying a House in there constituency. Showed them my sales agreement.
(REMEMBER: YOU HAVE TO CONTACT THE CONGRESSMAN OF YOUR OWN CONSTITUENCY)
10/07/11 - Got a response from Congressman's office
"After speaking with USCIS today, they are forwarding your case to an officer for review. This should take approximately two or three weeks."

10/14/11 - Got a standard e-mail reponse for the openned SR. "Application pending..wait 90 days ...bla bla bla"

10/25/11 - Contact Senator Toomey's office (R). Visited his office personally. Very formally dressed. Caseworker was really nice. Gave them the paperwork. He promised he will look into it.
10/25/11 - SAME DAY.. got the following response:
"I called the Nebraska Service Center and talked to someone who told me your case is with a review officer currently. There is no timeline for completion, it just depends on what else is on that person’s desk and how fast they can get it done."
10/27/11 - Got Approval.

I hope this helps. Good luck my friends. I am pretty sure everyone will overcome this once they are current.

Many congratulations to you and your family. Enjoy green life thanks for sharing the good news with us.

[TeddyKoochu]

Porting.

As per inventory report of October 1, 2010, EB3 I pending was 56,640 and as per October 1, 2011 EB3 I pending is 51,758. A reduction of 4,882. 2,800 normal quota, hence 2082 extra reduction. So porting is just around 2k (3k max)? I just had a huge Diwali lunch buffet so forgive me if I am making some totally stupid analysis here!

Last year the local office cases were added to the inventory in the middle so these could well be 2-3K this will bring the number to close to 4K, I agree that 6K definitely is an overstatement.

[veni001]

Veni

Do you think it's murthy's interpretation or actual CO words? because from the original source we had from narendrarao the law firm who published this first did not mention about receipts/filings. They said CO will gauge the demand (not the filings). I think if CO monitors the filings he may not be able to go to Mar1st 2008 in December bulletin itself

Unless he wants some 40-50k filings, because they are projecting that Jan/Feb bulletins will have similar movement too

bieber,
It could be any, but once the application are receipted then is easy for them to track demand for any given PD month(approved/pending/receipted) and compare against approved i-140 data.

[veni001]

Guys
Do we need to submit the following for I-485,
# Tax returns for the previous two years;
# W-2 forms for the previous two years;
my lawyer is saying dont have to unless they ask , please suggest

thanks
Kumar

Would be a good idea to include previous year W-2, especially if the employer had any ability to pay RFE's in the past.

[TeddyKoochu]

I think that for Dec VB, we might get lucky, unless 20k people file I-485 in first few days of November. But for January VB, they will have a rough idea of how much a certain amount of move may fetch. And even for November, it is not completely accurate, because some of the guys from July 15th to August 15th would have just got in during the July 2007 fiasco, so hopefully it would be to our advantage, just a little bit.

I would be highly surprised if we get VB after November 7th. Considering there's thanksgiving holidays too, CO might want to give people proper time to start getting their documents and applications ready, as well as his mind would be made up, unless an anamoly like above suggested. Just a counter thought to the proposed Nov 11th.

I also think they are not that much into how many PERM, how many 140 etc, and are just relying on plain old demand grabbing of 485. They might use that (PERM, 140 etc) for a very very high level rough guesstimate.

Nishant, well said, I believe they are just going by the actuals based on 485 filing. The cumulative total that maybe there in the system as of now would be 2.5K (Preadjudicated) + 4K (PWMB) + 10K new filings about to come in Nov. However we must note that 6K of the cap has been burn out as part of the approvals already.

[suninphx]

Nishant, well said, I believe they are just going by the actuals based on 485 filing. The cumulative total that maybe there in the system as of now would be 2.5K (Preadjudicated) + 4K (PWMB) + 10K new filings about to come in Nov. However we must note that 6K of the cap has been burn out as part of the approvals already.

Teddy - you mean 10k filings from Jul 15 - Nov 1 2007?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy - you mean 10k filings from Jul 15 - Nov 1 2007?

Yes that is Ball Park what should come into the system. So Available Numbers = 16.5K + 3.5K (Porting) = 20K and numbers used = 6K, the October approvals are definitely from the 2012 cap. Credit to Nishant’s analysis porting is not that significant.

[suninphx]

Yes that is Ball Park what should come into the system. So Available Numbers = 16.5K + 3.5K (Porting) = 20K and numbers used = 6K, the October approvals are definitely from the 2012 cap. Credit to Nishant’s analysis porting is not that significant.
Ok that number sounds unrealistic at least for me.
Is there any official source which confirmed from where Oct numbers are coming?

[nishant2200]

Yes that is Ball Park what should come into the system. So Available Numbers = 16.5K + 3.5K (Porting) = 20K and numbers used = 6K, the October approvals are definitely from the 2012 cap. Credit to Nishant’s analysis porting is not that significant.

Teddy, thanks. One observation though, now more and more people are becoming eligible for porting as they have gained in work experience years as well as some of them may have started to pursue masters courses. In my company, one guy successfully completed his MBA, and ported from Eb3 to Eb2, he has October 2007 PD, and is current next month. So I would not throw away the 6k worst estimate of porting, it may very well come true for upcoming year.

[suninphx]

Teddy, thanks. One observation though, now more and more people are becoming eligible for porting as they have gained in work experience years as well as some of them may have started to pursue masters courses. In my company, one guy successfully completed his MBA, and ported from Eb3 to Eb2, he has October 2007 PD, and is current next month. So I would not throw away the 6k worst estimate of porting, it may very well come true for upcoming year.

With lag of 5 years for EB2IC this theory was always true, isn't it? E.g. person who had EB3I date of 2005 is eligible to port for about an year now, as per above theory.

[Gclongwait]

Yes that is Ball Park what should come into the system. So Available Numbers = 16.5K + 3.5K (Porting) = 20K and numbers used = 6K, the October approvals are definitely from the 2012 cap. Credit to Nishant’s analysis porting is not that significant.

10K from 3.5 months. Thats kind of high. Demand data of no previous month has shown 3K demand/month (except July). If my memory serves me then I think in general it has been around 2K to 2.3K per month. Any reason why you think that wont hold true?

[Kanmani]

Yes, I too think the estimation is too high.

I agree with Gclongwait's range of 2 to 2.3K at the max.

[nishant2200]

With lag of 5 years for EB2IC this theory was always true, isn't it? E.g. person who had EB3I date of 2005 is eligible to port for about an year now, as per above theory.

With each passing year, more people in the pool are being eligible. They are also being presented with reports like wait is 70 years. They are seeing huge movement in EB2 I/C this calendar year, it's a great motivator. Also consider that people are doing porting even with 2007, 2008 PDs. 6k is absolute worst case, to use in analysis.

The movement DOS is doing right now, is simply going by past trend and filling kitty of 30-35k applications, and rightly they are not considering porting, 140 backlog, pending inventory for EB1 EB2ROW (Oct 2011 inventory shows more stuff than Oct 2010 inventory). Early movement was always better as said earlier, and that's happening, and is a golden opportunity to get one foot in the system.

[nishant2200]

Yes, I too think the estimation is too high.

I agree with Gclongwait's range of 2 to 2.3K at the max.

If I use Spec's tables, subtract from Nov 1 2007 the 15 July 2007, I get 8,641

Let's wait for Teddy to get back though.

[nishant2200]

Ok that number sounds unrealistic at least for me.
Is there any official source which confirmed from where Oct numbers are coming?

In my opinion, in absence of official source info, we should think that the numbers come from FY 2012 cap only.

5-6k is a huge number to do the trick of assigning number in September for approval in October, if that's even legal, Ron Gotcher doesnt agree, neither does Spectator I would like to think. Especially if you are going to claim visas ran out in half the month, and keep EB1, EB2 ROW demand waiting for that. They even put the verbiage in that memo to USCIS that the abrupt exhaustion is due to sudden demand you showed to us in August.

[Gclongwait]

With each passing year, more people in the pool are being eligible. They are also being presented with reports like wait is 70 years. They are seeing huge movement in EB2 I/C this calendar year, it's a great motivator. Also consider that people are doing porting even with 2007, 2008 PDs. 6k is absolute worst case, to use in analysis.

The movement DOS is doing right now, is simply going by past trend and filling kitty of 30-35k applications, and rightly they are not considering porting, 140 backlog, pending inventory for EB1 EB2ROW (Oct 2011 inventory shows more stuff than Oct 2010 inventory). Early movement was always better as said earlier, and that's happening, and is a golden opportunity to get one foot in the system.

Nishanth,

Do you know what the exact diff is in EN1 and EB2 ROW between Oct 2011 inventory and Oct 2010 inventory? If you already have the numbers it will be good.

[march_2008]

That means, do you say dates will not move to max Jan'2008 as you were telling previously? it sounds not good hope for eb2 untill 2013 Jan


Yes that is Ball Park what should come into the system. So Available Numbers = 16.5K + 3.5K (Porting) = 20K and numbers used = 6K, the October approvals are definitely from the 2012 cap. Credit to Nishant’s analysis porting is not that significant.

[belmontboy]

Guys
Do we need to submit the following for I-485,
# Tax returns for the previous two years;
# W-2 forms for the previous two years;
my lawyer is saying dont have to unless they ask , please suggest

thanks
Kumar

your lawyer is right.
My lawyer also didnot cite tax returns in the list of supporting documents.

[suninphx]

In my opinion, in absence of official source info, we should think that the numbers come from FY 2012 cap only.

5-6k is a huge number to do the trick of assigning number in September for approval in October, if that's even legal, Ron Gotcher doesnt agree, neither does Spectator I would like to think. Especially if you are going to claim visas ran out in half the month, and keep EB1, EB2 ROW demand waiting for that. They even put the verbiage in that memo to USCIS that the abrupt exhaustion is due to sudden demand you showed to us in August.

We will have to agree to disagree again. I am not sure if Ron agrees or not and He has been wrong multiple times in the past. I will wait for more concrete official proof.

[suninphx]

With each passing year, more people in the pool are being eligible. They are also being presented with reports like wait is 70 years. They are seeing huge movement in EB2 I/C this calendar year, it's a great motivator. Also consider that people are doing porting even with 2007, 2008 PDs. 6k is absolute worst case, to use in analysis.

The movement DOS is doing right now, is simply going by past trend and filling kitty of 30-35k applications, and rightly they are not considering porting, 140 backlog, pending inventory for EB1 EB2ROW (Oct 2011 inventory shows more stuff than Oct 2010 inventory). Early movement was always better as said earlier, and that's happening, and is a golden opportunity to get one foot in the system.

I disagree. I don't think things have changed so drastically that porting will increase 40%.

Not sure why yiu made point about why\how DOS moving dates. I have a feeling that they are moving on a well thought out path.Remember they have much more accurate data than what we have.

[suninphx]

If I use Spec's tables, subtract from Nov 1 2007 the 15 July 2007, I get 8,641

Let's wait for Teddy to get back though.

That's for EB2IC and EB3IC combined right? Teddy can easily produce 10K number out of this. With his conservative approach.

[th5000th]

From Fragomen
http://www.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=1376

[nishant2200]

From Fragomen
http://www.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=1376

thank you buddy!

familyguy, I think now you can celebrate.

[nishant2200]

That's for EB2IC and EB3IC combined right? Teddy can easily produce 10K number out of this. With his conservative approach.

suninphx, this is for EB2IC only.

[nishant2200]

I disagree. I don't think things have changed so drastically that porting will increase 40%.

Not sure why yiu made point about why\how DOS moving dates. I have a feeling that they are moving on a well thought out path.Remember they have much more accurate data than what we have.

sure, I was just putting absolute worst case number as I said in post. It only takes around 2900 people to find eligible job offers to make 6k porting.

the point about moving dates was made so that we don't think that this indicates porting is not considered a problem at all. Even in this latest news alerts they have indicated that lot of people are upgrading from eb3 to eb2. They are just rightly ignoring all the variables which can change throughout the year, and just looking at past trend.

I am glad you disagree, it brings out good points and discussion. I dont think anyone of us here claim to know the truth.

[suninphx]

suninphx, this is for EB2IC only.

Not sure if we are looking at same table. I am referring to this which has both eb2 and eb3 for IC.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)

[nishant2200]

Not sure if we are looking at same table. I am referring to this which has both eb2 and eb3 for IC.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)

suninphx I am looking at:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011

I see that this is a newer version of table than I had and as per this the difference between 15th july 2007 and 1st november is a bit less by like 20. It's still 8.6k.

[suninphx]

sure, I was just putting absolute worst case number as I said in post. It only takes around 2900 people to find eligible job offers to make 6k porting.

the point about moving dates was made so that we don't think that this indicates porting is not considered a problem at all. Even in this latest news alerts they have indicated that lot of people are upgrading from eb3 to eb2. They are just rightly ignoring all the variables which can change throughout the year, and just looking at past trend.

I am glad you disagree, it brings out good points and discussion. I dont think anyone of us here claim to know the truth.
No one can deny that porting is there and will continue.
My point is as years go by we should be able to narrow down gap between actual and worst case scenario. Gap for this year is 42%. I have no problem with some one being conservative , but opinions needs to be refined based on the actual picture which is not happening IMHO
As far as comments from DOS about porting goes - you know very well that they are not consistent at all about their opinion in this regard.

[suninphx]

suninphx I am looking at:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011

I see that this is a newer version of table than I had and as per this the difference between 15th july 2007 and 1st november is a bit less by like 20. It's still 8.6k.
Sure. I like to go with PERM data and calculate myself. I can make my own assumptions in that case :). I am getting around 8000 which is much less than what Teddy projected.

[nishant2200]

About Tax returns and W2 etc for 485.

Friends, I will just tell you what my lawyer asked for.

He did ask for last 3 years tax returns, 3 years W2. I did not question why he wants that.

My guess is that for AOS, you need to show that you have maintained status. For someone on H1, the one of those needs to maintain status might be that he got paid wages as offered in the LCA.

Everyone's case is different, and based on situation and lawyer, documents asked maybe different.

[nishant2200]

Nishanth,

Do you know what the exact diff is in EN1 and EB2 ROW between Oct 2011 inventory and Oct 2010 inventory? If you already have the numbers it will be good.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD


October 2010
EB1 ROW: 4,751
EB1 All: 7,595
EB2 ROW: 8,859

October 2011
EB1 ROW: 8,028
EB1 All: 14,072
EB2 ROW: 10,184

[iatiam]

Thanks Nishanth and GCQ. I am going to try to FOIA route like you suggested.

[Reader]

My lawyer is also asking me to submit last two years w2 and tax returns. I have problem with my name all over the place due to unusually long name. My name is AAA BBBBBB CCCCCCCCCC and my father's name is XXXXXXXXX YYYYYYYYY. As per my passport the given name is AAA BBBBBB CCCCCCCCCC and the family name is XXXXXXXXX YYYYYYYYY. But in US, my name is just AAA BBBBBB CCCCCCCCCC for all every day things except for all immigration related papers. So, all my H1 and 140 have the full name, but my w2 and tax returns have only the given name part. To avoid any potential confusion, I am inclined to not submit the w2 and tax returns. Till date, I never had any problems due to the name mismatches and hoping that 485 will be smooth without any issues with this name confusion. Any suggestions please??


About Tax returns and W2 etc for 485.

Friends, I will just tell you what my lawyer asked for.

He did ask for last 3 years tax returns, 3 years W2. I did not question why he wants that.

[familyguy]

have to shop for lawyers now :)


thank you buddy!

familyguy, I think now you can celebrate.

[veni001]

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD


October 2010
EB1 ROW: 4,751
EB1 All: 7,595
EB2 ROW: 8,859

October 2011
EB1 ROW: 8,028
EB1 All: 14,072
EB2 ROW: 10,184

That's ~47% increase(or ~8K) in EB1+EB2ROWMP pending applications in the past year!

[nishant2200]

That's ~52% increase(or ~11K) in EB1+EB2ROWMP pending applications in the past year!

Yes, and that's why its good they are doing intake early without considering all these variables.

I was also amazed by amount of EB1 from India pending. Almost 4k.

[qesehmk]

Thanks. The language here is interesting - Fragomen is quoting DOS


The State Department is planning to move EB-2 dates further ahead in December because there has been less green card demand than expected in recent months. Similar EB-2 advancements are possible in January and February 2012 if demand continues to be low.

For prior four years, "demand" meant "visa demand".
But now since there are less preadj cases, "demand" over here means "level of 485 filings relative to the supply DOS sees in 2012 fiscal" IMHO


From Fragomen
http://www.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=1376

[vizcard]

Thanks Dec2007. While I wish I were "Dec 2007", I am glad that your ticket to freedom is one VB away.

BTW its funny that some sort of slavery always existed in the US. Now they just call it H1B.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indentured_servant

I really wouldn't call our situation or those described in your link "slavery".

[qesehmk]

vizcard, its perspective my friend. One's perspective is shaped by one's experiences. Looking at mine I have come to the conclusion that it is slavery if you end up working for a company lower in the food chain where there is too much anti immigration sentiment and your job becomes shit. If your company is up in the food chain, performance matters more than other factors and anti immigrant sentiment takes a backseat and H1 guy doesn't feel like a slave. Just my 2 cents.


I really wouldn't call our situation or those described in your link "slavery".

[grnwtg]

It depends on situation, i know many people who does not want to go back to India for various reasons and they were tortured by their employer with out giving their documents and proper pay.
My case was that i am lazy i cannot call salary but i am victim of this very horrible system ( if you compared to UK or australia or canada or newzealand or infact even India0


I really wouldn't call our situation or those described in your link "slavery".

[veni001]

Yes, and that's why its good they are doing intake early without considering all these variables.

I was also amazed by amount of EB1 from India pending. Almost 4k.

Nishant,
Only in the short run, assuming USCIS will clear this additiol backlog (only!) and also assume demand accross the board similar to FY2011 then that is ~8K less SOFAD for FY2012!

[Karma1979]

Even my lawyer does not need W2 and tax returns for I-485. I know some of my friends working in mid-cap USA company were not asked for tax returns or W2. My general perception is that you don't need to submit tax returns, it is just an extra set of documents some lawyers submit.



About Tax returns and W2 etc for 485.

Friends, I will just tell you what my lawyer asked for.

He did ask for last 3 years tax returns, 3 years W2. I did not question why he wants that.

My guess is that for AOS, you need to show that you have maintained status. For someone on H1, the one of those needs to maintain status might be that he got paid wages as offered in the LCA.

Everyone's case is different, and based on situation and lawyer, documents asked maybe different.

[sandeep11]

I checked the I-485 instructions and there they didn't mention about any pay stubs, w2 or tax returns. Only thing they asked for is EVL. The list my attorney sent me doesn't ask for either of these..:).




Even my lawyer does not need W2 and tax returns for I-485. I know some of my friends working in mid-cap USA company were not asked for tax returns or W2. My general perception is that you don't need to submit tax returns, it is just an extra set of documents some lawyers submit.

[Gclongwait]

That's ~52% increase(or ~11K) in EB1+EB2ROWMP pending applications in the past year!

Not 11k, 8k increase. Eb1 All includes eb1 row. So it's 6.5k increase in Eb1 and 1.5k approx in eb2 rowmp. A 1.5k increase can be discounted since it's very nominal considering 40k quota. I guess eb1 is not going to give more than 6k this time.

[veni001]

Not 11k, 8k increase. Eb1 All includes eb1 row. So it's 6.5k increase in Eb1 and 1.5k approx in eb2 rowmp. A 1.5k increase can be discounted since it's very nominal considering 40k quota. I guess eb1 is not going to give more than 6k this time.

Gclongwait,
You are correct it is ~8.1K, that is a significant increase (~47%).

It could mean ~8k less SOFAD this year compared to last year!

October 2010
EB1 All: 7,595
EB2 ROW: 8,859
EB2 MP:1,056
Total = 17,510

October 2011
EB1 All: 14,072
EB2 ROW: 10,184
EB2 MP:1,356
Total = 25,612

[qesehmk]

Veni

This is a good post. I think on the balance this year we should see less SOFAD by 8K.

If you think about it - if USCIS starts relaxing Kazarian then that 8K will jump to upto 16K (8K unprocessed demand from prior year + 8K from this year). But the chances are less.

It is quite worrisome that EB2IC can't take EB1 spillover for granted because EB1 continues to have demand that matches or exceeds supply. In 2011 kazarian memo held EB1 processing back. Another worrisome thing isthat kazarian is resulting in more delay than denial or EB1 approvals. Which means EB1 demand continues to be there creating the potential to not only use its own quota but also utilize any EB5 spillover.


Gclongwait,
You are correct it is ~8.1K, that is a significant increase (~47%).

It could mean ~8k less SOFAD this year compared to last year!

October 2010
EB1 All: 7,595
EB2 ROW: 8,859
EB2 MP:1,056
Total = 17,510

October 2011
EB1 All: 14,072
EB2 ROW: 10,184
EB2 MP:1,356
Total = 25,612

[nishant2200]

Q, I also believe that this next VB is extremely critical. This VB might spell out various tweaks and adjustments that might happen due to close co-ordination between USCIS and DOS, to have the Eb1, Eb2ROW demand "regulated", if I may, such that the spurt (highest point region reached by Dec or maybe Jan VB) is made the peak point around which the next FY can also be started. I think both sides want to have ammunition such that:
a. Categories that are current remain so for forseeable future
b. Inventory for EB2IC is just around the comfort level that each FY's beginning intake is necessary and sufficient

ps: After the 12k showdown this year between CO and USCIS, I hope the recent prediction announcement by CO was made with USCIS in agreement. I would really hate it if USCIS plays spoilsport. I really expect a high level of consensus and coordination between CO and USCIS, if the post july 2007 era is going to be successful for both of them, with regards to entire EB category.


Veni

This is a good post. I think on the balance this year we should see less SOFAD by 8K.

If you think about it - if USCIS starts relaxing Kazarian then that 8K will jump to upto 16K (8K unprocessed demand from prior year + 8K from this year). But the chances are less.

It is quite worrisome that EB2IC can't take EB1 spillover for granted because EB1 continues to have demand that matches or exceeds supply. In 2011 kazarian memo held EB1 processing back. Another worrisome thing isthat kazarian is resulting in more delay than denial or EB1 approvals. Which means EB1 demand continues to be there creating the potential to not only use its own quota but also utilize any EB5 spillover.

[vizcard]

It depends on situation, i know many people who does not want to go back to India for various reasons and they were tortured by their employer with out giving their documents and proper pay.
My case was that i am lazy i cannot call salary but i am victim of this very horrible system ( if you compared to UK or australia or canada or newzealand or infact even India0

This system sucks but it still isn't close to being slavery. The fact is we have a CHOICE. Its a CHOICE we have made to a) come here and b) stay here. We can choose to go back to our home country or to any other country you mentioned. I have friends who have descended from "real" slaves so I apologize if I'm coming off as insensitive. I'm in the same boat as everyone else on this forum but I still feel I am better off that my peers in Canada, UK, Japan and India (countries where I actually have former classmates)

[nishant2200]

Friend, how much do you think should we consider worst case porting. I am open to points given by you or anyone. All I am trying to do is to understand the picture for upcoming year(s) like all of us here. I made few points about people doing masters, and also I think everyone who went to EB3 in 2008 and onwards, has gone only to reserve the PD, they are all going to port as soon as they can.

My own analysis and teddy's input later on, showed max around 4k porting for last FY. So do we think we should stick to 4k for upcoming FY. What do you guys think. Believe me, I would be most happy myself due to vested interest.


No one can deny that porting is there and will continue.
My point is as years go by we should be able to narrow down gap between actual and worst case scenario. Gap for this year is 42%. I have no problem with some one being conservative , but opinions needs to be refined based on the actual picture which is not happening IMHO
As far as comments from DOS about porting goes - you know very well that they are not consistent at all about their opinion in this regard.

[qesehmk]

What I don't understand is that if they move dates upto mar 2008, then there really isn't going to be an immediate need to move it beyond. But its possible they will move it 4 months past that to generate sufficient demand and then retrogress.

One thing is for sure ... these guys don't want to issue a single EAD unless they thing a case is close to being adjudicated in 4-5 months. Seen from other angle, it means, if your case becomes current, there is a very good chance that you will get a GC in 4-5 months.


Q, I also believe that this next VB is extremely critical. This VB might spell out various tweaks and adjustments that might happen due to close co-ordination between USCIS and DOS, to have the Eb1, Eb2ROW demand "regulated", if I may, such that the spurt (highest point region reached by Dec or maybe Jan VB) is made the peak point around which the next FY can also be started. I think both sides want to have ammunition such that:
a. Categories that are current remain so for forseeable future
b. Inventory for EB2IC is just around the comfort level that each FY's beginning intake is necessary and sufficient

ps: After the 12k showdown this year between CO and USCIS, I hope the recent prediction announcement by CO was made with USCIS in agreement. I would really hate it if USCIS plays spoilsport. I really expect a high level of consensus and coordination between CO and USCIS, if the post july 2007 era is going to be successful for both of them, with regards to entire EB category.

[veni001]

Veni

This is a good post. I think on the balance this year we should see less SOFAD by 8K.

If you think about it - if USCIS starts relaxing Kazarian then that 8K will jump to upto 16K (8K unprocessed demand from prior year + 8K from this year). But the chances are less.

It is quite worrisome that EB2IC can't take EB1 spillover for granted because EB1 continues to have demand that matches or exceeds supply. In 2011 kazarian memo held EB1 processing back. Another worrisome thing isthat kazarian is resulting in more delay than denial or EB1 approvals. Which means EB1 demand continues to be there creating the potential to not only use its own quota but also utilize any EB5 spillover.

Q,
Exactly, that's the head wind for FY2012. Only FY2011 is an exception for EB1. October'11 inventory and current i140 backlog could easily consume all FY2012 EB1 quota, if not more!

In addition, EB5 receipts & pending application are not showing any sign of downward trend as of August'11. Only hope for spillover for this year is EB2ROW-M-P & EB5, unless EB1 backlog continue to buildup through out the FY!

[Stemcell]

What I don't understand is that if they move dates upto mar 2008, then there really isn't going to be an immediate need to move it beyond. But its possible they will move it 4 months past that to generate sufficient demand and then retrogress.

One thing is for sure ... these guys don't want to issue a single EAD unless they thing a case is close to being adjudicated in 4-5 months. Seen from other angle, it means, if your case becomes current, there is a very good chance that you will get a GC in 4-5 months.

Q,

Why do you think they do not want to issue EAD ?

[veni001]

Q,

Why do you think they do not want to issue EAD ?

Stemcell,
Based on Oct'11 inventory ~100k EB3 application pending & going through EAD renewal every other year, so USCIS may not want to double their work load!

[suninphx]

[QUOTE=nishant2200;12205]Friend, how much do you think should we consider worst case porting. I am open to points given by you or anyone. All I am trying to do is to understand the picture for upcoming year(s) like all of us here. I made few points about people doing masters, and also I think everyone who went to EB3 in 2008 and onwards, has gone only to reserve the PD, they are all going to port as soon as they can.

My own analysis and teddy's input later on, showed max around 4k porting for last FY. So do we think we should stick to 4k for upcoming FY. What do you guys think. Believe me, I would be most happy myself due to vested interest.[/]

Option of doing masters was always there so nothing new there. Also, eb2,eb3 depends on job description than what degree you have. You can have PHd but still be only eligible for eb3 , based on job description.
The people who are working for big shops it's extremely difficult to do eb2 in the same company. So, in most cases they have join new company. If new company is big shop they have to wait for couple of years before their process is started. If company small/ medium size then those guys are smart enough to figure out what you will do once you get GC. Hence they also delay process as much as possible. So this evens out across the years, in my opinion. I always go with mean of 3500 as porting level because I have a feeling that when we assume ratio 70:30 for eb2:eb3 we are absorbing some numbers there. Just my thoughts. We will see how it goes. It's going to be interesting.

PS: Pending cases are really worrisome as Q and Venni pointed out.

[yesman]

Q, Are you basing this "the statement that they might move it by 4 months past march" merely based on the recent announcement from CO that Jan and Feb may see similar movement to Dec?


What I don't understand is that if they move dates upto mar 2008, then there really isn't going to be an immediate need to move it beyond. But its possible they will move it 4 months past that to generate sufficient demand and then retrogress.

One thing is for sure ... these guys don't want to issue a single EAD unless they thing a case is close to being adjudicated in 4-5 months. Seen from other angle, it means, if your case becomes current, there is a very good chance that you will get a GC in 4-5 months.

[qesehmk]

Because they made their intentions clear by saying that they do not want to issue an EAD unless a person is close to obtaining a GC. Somebody posted a link or actual text a few pages back. That is very consistent with the slow movement. Otherwise they would have made the date current and then retrogressed.

A very good reason not to make dates current was that many senators complained that EAD was almost a green card. So that's the reason USCIS has resorted to slow movement.


Q,
Why do you think they do not want to issue EAD ?


Q, Are you basing this "the statement that they might move it by 4 months past march" merely based on the recent announcement from CO that Jan and Feb may see similar movement to Dec?
Yes, there and in somewhere else I read the statement (from DOS) that basically said that they would like to ensure 4-5 months of cycle time for those current. So basically thats how they intend to move the dates.

Also it does mean USCIS implementing QSP going forward. The reason being, without QSP, the 485 approvals surge in last few months but they by that time it is too late for them to really know how many applications they really need to take in. So a better way to do it is do a QSP in a manner where they take a good measure of their surplus and keep applying it throughout the year. So I think although DOS has said that the dates will retro at some time, inspite of that EB2IC cases will continue to be approved a higher than quota rate because of QSP.

Don't claim to know it all .... but that's the logic that makes most sense to me

[nishant2200]

I am trying to formulate a theory to support your last part Q, as well as credit to Teddy on a conversation I had with him earlier today, and by this attempt to formulate a theory, try to explain the incredible phenomena of the Oct VB in which people are also getting green cards, not just date movement. Assuming by law, DOS
can only give 27% (is it 30%?) of all visas available in a category in the first three quarters max., following would be availability:

EB1: 10810 or 3603 a month
EB2: 10810 or 3603 a month
EB4: 2683 or 894 a month
EB5: 2683 or 894 a month

Total: 26986 a quarter, or 8995 a month

233 a month is already the normal quota for EB2IC.

Each month USCIS fails to produce adequate demand of non EB2IC, the unused numbers are given to EB2IC. This is monthly spillover, not even quarterly spillover, lets call for argument sake. Or at least if quarterly only, then each quarter, similarly all remaining is grabbed onto EB2IC. What has happened this FY 2012 so far, however, almost looks like monthly spillover, it is not QSP.

Now say DOS wants to always maintain a inventory of 20k (assuming 7k approvals of non EB2IC as worst case) to always remain ahead of the curve of 27k a quarter, hence the intent of keeping on moving dates. Anytime USCIS presents a substantial non EB2IC demand, or DOS feels they obtained 30k inventory, which is higher than the 26986 max a quarter, they pause or adjust the pace of the movement, cleverly done and based on amount of non EB2IC demand presented by USCIS, they might not even need retrogression. This way EB2IC keeps moving, inventory keeps getting built up, and based on non EB2IC demand by USCIS, adequate congestion control is done, any bursts of non EB2IC are accommodated and when the bursts go away, again same EB2IC picks up steam. It is a fair system IMHO. Visas are not wasted, current categories remain current, laws are followed, there is no mad rush anytime, EB2IC is not penalized for USCIS's failure to process other categories backlog consistently and then by them making up for it suddenly in last quarter like they did in last FY August. If they are applying this to EB4 and EB4 demand then keep in mind, this also takes away the possibility or at least reduces by great deal the quantum of EB1 backlog reduction cannibalizing EB5 and any possible EB4 SO from coming onto EB2IC.

this idea may be totally not right, but there might be some form of at least QSP in play to explain. only those who try, may fail, tear apart as you like :)



Because they made their intentions clear by saying that they do not want to issue an EAD unless a person is close to obtaining a GC. Somebody posted a link or actual text a few pages back. That is very consistent with the slow movement. Otherwise they would have made the date current and then retrogressed.

A very good reason not to make dates current was that many senators complained that EAD was almost a green card. So that's the reason USCIS has resorted to slow movement.




Yes, there and in somewhere else I read the statement (from DOS) that basically said that they would like to ensure 4-5 months of cycle time for those current. So basically thats how they intend to move the dates.

Also it does mean USCIS implementing QSP going forward. The reason being, without QSP, the 485 approvals surge in last few months but they by that time it is too late for them to really know how many applications they really need to take in. So a better way to do it is do a QSP in a manner where they take a good measure of their surplus and keep applying it throughout the year. So I think although DOS has said that the dates will retro at some time, inspite of that EB2IC cases will continue to be approved a higher than quota rate because of QSP.

Don't claim to know it all .... but that's the logic that makes most sense to me

[yesman]

Q/Other Gurus, What I'm having difficulty wrapping my head around is that the following pieces of information:

-> SOFAD similar to last year will move the dates to Mar 2008 (with 5k buffer?)
-> The SOFAD we will potentially see in 2012 is potentially lesser due to lower SO from EB1

seem to contradict with this other piece of information:

-> CO claims to move date to Mar 1 in Dec and hopes to move it further in Jan and Feb

What am I missing? Does CO want a larger buffer than what the Guru's in this forum are expecting to consider?



Also it does mean USCIS implementing QSP going forward. The reason being, without QSP, the 485 approvals surge in last few months but they by that time it is too late for them to really know how many applications they really need to take in. So a better way to do it is do a QSP in a manner where they take a good measure of their surplus and keep applying it throughout the year. So I think although DOS has said that the dates will retro at some time, inspite of that EB2IC cases will continue to be approved a higher than quota rate because of QSP.

Don't claim to know it all .... but that's the logic that makes most sense to me

[red2green]

Hi codesmith,

yes, those application means I485 applied ( i think it does not matter if I140 approved or not, Guru's correct me if i am wrong).
and your second question, 485 approved means GC is almost done except that you need card physically.

It seems like if I-140 is pending then the corresponding I-485 will not show up in the inventory report. refer to page-5 in the below pdf.

http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/news/2010,1124-mayorkas.pdf

another interesting doc below, 485-SOP, old one, they must have new SOP now, but interesting to note that secondary evidence for birth certificate could be the biographical data pages of the applicantís passport; page 7- 3.12

http://www.ilw.com/seminars/august2002_citation2b.pdf

[Stemcell]

Because they made their intentions clear by saying that they do not want to issue an EAD unless a person is close to obtaining a GC. Somebody posted a link or actual text a few pages back. That is very consistent with the slow movement. Otherwise they would have made the date current and then retrogressed.


I wasnt aware of that.I was of the opinion that EAD was a money making machine for them...and also moving the dates forward was IMO to make everything efficient.....

[Stemcell]

Stemcell,
Based on Oct'11 inventory ~100k EB3 application pending & going through EAD renewal every other year, so USCIS may not want to double their work load!


Veni,
That makes more sense. Is the EAD now given for 2 years or 3 years.I had read somewhere that USCIS was planning to give 3 yr EAD and ** was lobbying for an administrative fix.Not sure if that worked out....

[veni001]

Because they made their intentions clear by saying that they do not want to issue an EAD unless a person is close to obtaining a GC. Somebody posted a link or actual text a few pages back. That is very consistent with the slow movement. Otherwise they would have made the date current and then retrogressed.


I wasnt aware of that. I was of the opinion that EAD was a money making machine for them...and also moving the dates forward was IMO to make everything efficient.....

With revised fee schedule (http://www.murthy.com/news/n_prosig.html) implemented in Q3 of 2007, there is no fee for EAD/AP renewal.


Veni,
That makes more sense. Is the EAD now given for 2 years or 3 years.I had read somewhere that USCIS was planning to give 3 yr EAD and ** was lobbying for an administrative fix.Not sure if that worked out....

Most of the EB3 pending applicants are getting for 2 years and EB2 for 1-year.

[veni001]

Q/Other Gurus, What I'm having difficulty wrapping my head around is that the following pieces of information:

-> SOFAD similar to last year will move the dates to Mar 2008 (with 5k buffer?)
-> The SOFAD we will potentially see in 2012 is potentially lesser due to lower SO from EB1

seem to contradict with this other piece of information:

-> CO claims to move date to Mar 1 in Dec and hopes to move it further in Jan and Feb

What am I missing? Does CO want a larger buffer than what the Guru's in this forum are expecting to consider?

yesman,
What is CO's plan is anyone's guess, but what ever be the plan they need to do it quickly(before new applications trickle down to demand data).

If FY2012 SOFAD is less, as we are estimating here, then we may not see similar PD movement next year (Oct'12 onwards).

[suninphx]

yesman,
What is CO's plan is anyone's guess, but what ever be the plan they need to do it quickly(before new applications trickle down to demand data).

If FY2012 SOFAD is less, as we are estimating here, then we may not see similar PD movement next year (Oct'12 onwards).

SOFAD may be less so may be demand (depending upon where dates stop for this FY).

[dec2007]

What I don't understand is that if they move dates upto mar 2008, then there really isn't going to be an immediate need to move it beyond. But its possible they will move it 4 months past that to generate sufficient demand and then retrogress.

One thing is for sure ... these guys don't want to issue a single EAD unless they thing a case is close to being adjudicated in 4-5 months. Seen from other angle, it means, if your case becomes current, there is a very good chance that you will get a GC in 4-5 months.

Q, if my PD (dec 31, 2007) gets current in next bulletin and I send my application on Dec 1st/1st week, what is the approximate time to receive EAD? How do I know i will get a gc in few months or have to wait for next FY (OCT 2012). Will I get a notification that I'm counted this year ?

Thanks,

[yesman]

yesman,
What is CO's plan is anyone's guess, but what ever be the plan they need to do it quickly(before new applications trickle down to demand data).
Veni, Why is this the case? Because the dates need to be retrogressed before the applications trickle down in case the dates moved beyond the point of availability?



If FY2012 SOFAD is less, as we are estimating here, then we may not see similar PD movement next year (Oct'12 onwards).
Again, I find it hard to believe that CO (who knows exactly how many EB3->EB2 porting is happening, what is the EB1, EB5 or EB2 ROW demand and other factors that govern the SOFAD) would not be able to take that into account for FY2012 itself. So, why will this not impact FY2012 movement is what I'm asking.

[yesman]

Now say DOS wants to always maintain a inventory of 20k (assuming 7k approvals of non EB2IC as worst case) to always remain ahead of the curve of 27k a quarter, hence the intent of keeping on moving dates. Anytime USCIS presents a substantial non EB2IC demand, or DOS feels they obtained 30k inventory, which is higher than the 26986 max a quarter, they pause or adjust the pace of the movement, cleverly done and based on amount of non EB2IC demand presented by USCIS, they might not even need retrogression. This way EB2IC keeps moving, inventory keeps getting built up, and based on non EB2IC demand by USCIS, adequate congestion control is done, any bursts of non EB2IC are accommodated and when the bursts go away, again same EB2IC picks up steam. It is a fair system IMHO. Visas are not wasted, current categories remain current, laws are followed, there is no mad rush anytime, EB2IC is not penalized for USCIS's failure to process other categories backlog consistently and then by them making up for it suddenly in last quarter like they did in last FY August. If they are applying this to EB4 and EB4 demand then keep in mind, this also takes away the possibility or at least reduces by great deal the quantum of EB1 backlog reduction cannibalizing EB5 and any possible EB4 SO from coming onto EB2IC.

this idea may be totally not right, but there might be some form of at least QSP in play to explain. only those who try, may fail, tear apart as you like :)
Nishat, I really like your explanation although I have a hard time believing that this would not be breaking the law. What if the bursts you refer to in non EB2IC happen in the last couple of months of FY2012 and there is not enough visa in those categories available because they have been doled out to EB2IC. Would that not be violating the law? Is this not what the quarterly SO supposed to prevent by allowing the excess to overflow only once every quarter?

[qesehmk]

suninphx you are right. The gap should narrow. But it happens through the year as we see the trend. At the beginning of the year we have no idea which way things are going to move. Every year there is some dark horse. e.g. last year was Kazarian year, the year before was labor year (wholesale labor approvals), the year before 485 year (wholesale backlog clearance for EB1 and EB2ROW). So these things do require variations in projections. But as year progresses we know which way the wind is blowing. But mind you at the end of the day CO/VO/USCIS can so easily throw a wrench in our projections. Thats just the plain and simple and painful truth.


No one can deny that porting is there and will continue.
My point is as years go by we should be able to narrow down gap between actual and worst case scenario. Gap for this year is 42%. I have no problem with some one being conservative , but opinions needs to be refined based on the actual picture which is not happening IMHO
As far as comments from DOS about porting goes - you know very well that they are not consistent at all about their opinion in this regard.


What has happened this FY 2012 so far, however, almost looks like monthly spillover, it is not QSP.

Nishant, QSP doesn't have to occur after a quarter. It can be applied within a quarter - every day week or month. QSP only means that the spillover limit is quarterly visa limit.


What am I missing? Does CO want a larger buffer than what the Guru's in this forum are expecting to consider?
The answer is absolutely yes. He has indicated that he intends to provide GC in 4-5 months since filing 485. So he will within 2012 move the dates to not just where he think eventually SOFAD wil take him but about 4-5 months beyond that point (AND NO FURTHER)


Q, if my PD (dec 31, 2007) gets current in next bulletin and I send my application on Dec 1st/1st week, what is the approximate time to receive EAD? How do I know i will get a gc in few months or have to wait for next FY (OCT 2012). Will I get a notification that I'm counted this year ?
Thanks,
I am not really tracking EAD time but you can get that from USCIS dashboard. That should be at least directionally correct. My rough guess would be 3-4 months. As per GC as I said - 4-5 months is his intention. He has clearly indicated that his preference is NOT to build a huge pipeline of 485.

[veni001]

Veni, Why is this the case? Because the dates need to be retrogressed before the applications trickle down in case the dates moved beyond the point of availability?

That's what CO indicated in November VB.



Again, I find it hard to believe that CO (who knows exactly how many EB3->EB2 porting is happening, what is the EB1, EB5 or EB2 ROW demand and other factors that govern the SOFAD) would not be able to take that into account for FY2012 itself. So, why will this not impact FY2012 movement is what I'm asking.

Most of the EB1,EB2ROWMP and EB5 won't take more than 3-5 months to get the approval (140/526 to 485 approval). I don't think DOS/USCIS can estimate(guesstimate)what could be this demand in Q3 or Q4 and issue numbers to EB2IC now!

[nishant2200]

Wov I thought only at end of quarter. Then my theory sounds correct but its QSP. I am convinced now he is doing QSP and in a way (early approvals) that needs USCIS blessing and coordination. qbf, u ought to love CO now.


suninphx you are right. The gap should narrow. But it happens through the year as we see the trend. At the beginning of the year we have no idea which way things are going to move. Every year there is some dark horse. e.g. last year was Kazarian year, the year before was labor year (wholesale labor approvals), the year before 485 year (wholesale backlog clearance for EB1 and EB2ROW). So these things do require variations in projections. But as year progresses we know which way the wind is blowing. But mind you at the end of the day CO/VO/USCIS can so easily throw a wrench in our projections. Thats just the plain and simple and painful truth.




Nishant, QSP doesn't have to occur after a quarter. It can be applied within a quarter - every day week or month. QSP only means that the spillover limit is quarterly visa limit.


The answer is absolutely yes. He has indicated that he intends to provide GC in 4-5 months since filing 485. So he will within 2012 move the dates to not just where he think eventually SOFAD wil take him but about 4-5 months beyond that point (AND NO FURTHER)


I am not really tracking EAD time but you can get that from USCIS dashboard. That should be at least directionally correct. My rough guess would be 3-4 months. As per GC as I said - 4-5 months is his intention. He has clearly indicated that his preference is NOT to build a huge pipeline of 485.

[suninphx]

suninphx you are right. The gap should narrow. But it happens through the year as we see the trend. At the beginning of the year we have no idea which way things are going to move. Every year there is some dark horse. e.g. last year was Kazarian year, the year before was labor year (wholesale labor approvals), the year before 485 year (wholesale backlog clearance for EB1 and EB2ROW). So these things do require variations in projections. But as year progresses we know which way the wind is blowing. But mind you at the end of the day CO/VO/USCIS can so easily throw a wrench in our projections.

I agree to what you said. We don't really have any control on how dates are going to move. I made that statement because few people kept saying that porting was 6000 even at end of last FY.
But again, if CO is going to go by current strategy of 'GC in 4-5 months' then porting of 3500 vs 6000 will not 'hurt' that much(the movement becoming more predictable).

[qesehmk]

CO and everybody else (i.e. lawyers!) scared EB2IC about EB3 portings. I initially thought they were 6K max. But at the end of the year I came ot the conclusion they were 3-4K max including CP. So pure portings could be 2-3K max. Eitherway - both numbers are insignificant in the larger picture.


I agree to what you said. We don't really have any control on how dates are going to move. I made that statement because few people kept saying that porting was 6000 even at end of last FY.
But again, if CO is going to go by current strategy of 'GC in 4-5 months' then porting of 3500 vs 6000 will not 'hurt' that much(the movement becoming more predictable).

[nishant2200]

I agree to what you said. We don't really have any control on how dates are going to move. I made that statement because few people kept saying that porting was 6000 even at end of last FY.
But again, if CO is going to go by current strategy of 'GC in 4-5 months' then porting of 3500 vs 6000 will not 'hurt' that much(the movement becoming more predictable).

Dude I hope u dont mean me! I in fact pointed out only 2-3k based on Year to year inventory, Teddy pointed in a point of local offices input and made proposal of 4k max. And for next FY I was asking whether 6k shud be absolute worst case!

[nishant2200]

CO and everybody else scared EB2IC about EB3 portings. I initially thought they were 6K max. But at the end of the year I came ot the conclusion they were 3-4K max including CP. So pure portings could be 2-3K max. Eitherway - both numbers are insignificant in the larger picture.

Most EB3 IC in 2007 post july and onwards 2008,2009 and so on must have gone in EB3 only to reserve their PD. many of them might be even qualified, just the company did not pursue EB2. What can we think about their impact on post july 2007 dates moved world.

[Kanmani]

Nishant

Back in 2007,2008 there was no thought of retaining their PD at all. The reality was , there was no clear picture of the backlog, DoS was moving the PDs here and there allover the years, and noone thought of EB3 is going to be this big mess. We were in the middle of the situation , the company didnt show any sign of starting the GC process watching many of our friends filed in EB3 which was very easy and straight forward not getting audits or rejected in the I-140 stage .

[suninphx]

Dude I hope u dont mean me! I in fact pointed out only 2-3k based on Year to year inventory, Teddy pointed in a point of local offices input and made proposal of 4k max. And for next FY I was asking whether 6k shud be absolute worst case!

No no...no one in particular.... I was pointing towards thought process

[suninphx]

Most EB3 IC in 2007 post july and onwards 2008,2009 and so on must have gone in EB3 only to reserve their PD. many of them might be even qualified, just the company did not pursue EB2. What can we think about their impact on post july 2007 dates moved world.

For rest of 2007 I don't think eb2:eb3 percentage is as high as 2008/09 and onwards.

[nishant2200]

Guys, I agree for both of your points.

One concern is that people realizing their PD is reserved or pretty sure folks in 2010, 2011 on already knew this when they jumped into EB3 IC.

Once these guys port, it will be hidden porting, as they dont even have a Eb3 485 filed, the PERM will show up as a 2011, 2012 onwards PERM, but it will lead to a 485 based on an earlier date. Now, by this time, if we agree that pre july 2007 porting has reached its peak, and will be downsizing, then maybe this new porting schema will just take place of the old one gradually, and maybe since its hidden porting, it will reduce the actual EB2 IC demand of the years from which the new PERM was, and hence again, system will normalize.

Thank you for the conversation. So I am going to consider 4k porting from Spec's table for FY 2012 as the worst case.


Nishant

Back in 2007,2008 there was no thought of retaining their PD at all. The reality was , there was no clear picture of the backlog, DoS was moving the PDs here and there allover the years, and noone thought of EB3 is going to be this big mess. We were in the middle of the situation , the company didnt show any sign of starting the GC process watching many of our friends filed in EB3 which was very easy and straight forward not getting audits or rejected in the I-140 stage .


For rest of 2007 I don't think eb2:eb3 percentage is as high as 2008/09 and onwards.

[nishant2200]

I agree to what you said. We don't really have any control on how dates are going to move. I made that statement because few people kept saying that porting was 6000 even at end of last FY.
But again, if CO is going to go by current strategy of 'GC in 4-5 months' then porting of 3500 vs 6000 will not 'hurt' that much(the movement becoming more predictable).

It seems that pre july 2007 inventory world, CO made decision of only doing SO in last quarter, and allowing USCIS to catch up at the end of the year if they wanted to. In Post july 2007 world, CO seems to have made decision to apply full quarterly quota as allowed 27% max of total visas in each quarter, and hence spillover shall be QSP. I know you debate if the 5-6k for Oct VB come from FY 2011 or FY 2012 cap. If you consider they came from FY 2012 cap, QSP seems to be the most likely explanation, and since it is spillover, visas are to be given in order of PD, and hence EB2IC are moving together, instead of EB2 C marching a bit forward. And that also may explain the demand data figures which show very less reduction in the EB2 C numbers as compared to the EB2 I numbers.

[nishant2200]

Nishat, I really like your explanation although I have a hard time believing that this would not be breaking the law. What if the bursts you refer to in non EB2IC happen in the last couple of months of FY2012 and there is not enough visa in those categories available because they have been doled out to EB2IC. Would that not be violating the law? Is this not what the quarterly SO supposed to prevent by allowing the excess to overflow only once every quarter?

yesman, I think now that I know QSP can be applied anytime, not just end of quarter, I would like to throw away monthly idea. And in the case you mentioned, at the very worst, the EB1 EB2ROW spike would be satisfied 2 months later in next quarter. DOS/USCIS can still call it current category and manage. I think USCIS will let know DOS of spike like this, like they did in August of this year, and the agencies will cleverly manage the PR for this.

We still cant be sure of QSP, or if QSP every quarter they want to do. Our fate is in their hands!

[suninphx]

It seems that pre july 2007 inventory world, CO made decision of only doing SO in last quarter, and allowing USCIS to catch up at the end of the year if they wanted to. In Post july 2007 world, CO seems to have made decision to apply full quarterly quota as allowed 27% max of total visas in each quarter, and hence spillover shall be QSP. I know you debate if the 5-6k for Oct VB come from FY 2011 or FY 2012 cap. If you consider they came from FY 2012 cap, QSP seems to be the most likely explanation, and since it is spillover, visas are to be given in order of PD, and hence EB2IC are moving together, instead of EB2 C marching a bit forward. And that also may explain the demand data figures which show very less reduction in the EB2 C numbers as compared to the EB2 I numbers.

With exchange of thoughts we all had over past few days I am inclined towards believing that numbers are from FY2012. There is still unexplained mismatch between Oct and Nov demand data though ?

[nishant2200]

With exchange of thoughts we all had over past few days I am inclined towards believing that numbers are from FY2012. There is still unexplained mismatch between Oct and Nov demand data though ?

suninphx I agree there is no complete vague explanation yet. But what is clear at least to me is that the reduction of around 5.4k is coming from some sort of spillover quota only.

[suninphx]

suninphx I agree there is no complete vague explanation yet. But what is clear at least to me is that the reduction of around 5.4k is coming from some sort of spillover quota only.

Yes thats most logical explanation at this point.

[skpanda]

I have been following your theory on QSP in last few posts and becoming more and more convinced that CO has decided to do QSP in post July 2007 world.

Good Job!! thanks!!



It seems that pre july 2007 inventory world, CO made decision of only doing SO in last quarter, and allowing USCIS to catch up at the end of the year if they wanted to. In Post july 2007 world, CO seems to have made decision to apply full quarterly quota as allowed 27% max of total visas in each quarter, and hence spillover shall be QSP. I know you debate if the 5-6k for Oct VB come from FY 2011 or FY 2012 cap. If you consider they came from FY 2012 cap, QSP seems to be the most likely explanation, and since it is spillover, visas are to be given in order of PD, and hence EB2IC are moving together, instead of EB2 C marching a bit forward. And that also may explain the demand data figures which show very less reduction in the EB2 C numbers as compared to the EB2 I numbers.

[Karma1979]

Hello Guys, I prepared an affidavit and I wanted to make sure that I am not missing something important. I am sorry but I find most of the activity in this thread so I am posting my affidavit here as I got no response from birth certificate thread.
Please let me know if I should add, remove or change anything.

AFFIDAVIT

English translation of same first name


I, the undersigned, Pradip (alias Pradeep) "Last name" aged – XX years, Hindu by religion, presently residing at XXXXXX, India, do hereby solemnly affirm and declare on oath that:


1. I am the deponent herein and a citizen of India.

2. I was born on XXXX, India.


3. I was married to XXX on Oct 7, 1965 in Mumbai, India.


4. I am father of my son, XXX XXXX who was born on December XXXX in Mumbai India currently residing in xxxx USA address xxxxx.


5. Pradip and Pradeep are two different ways to spell the first name from my native language of the region into English. This should not be considered name change.




6. My first name is stated as "Pradip" on my son’s birth certificate and some other relevant documents and as "Pradeep" on my son’s passport and some other relevant documents.


7. "Pradip" and "Pradeep" are phonetically accepted spelling of the same first name in India.


8. Therefore, the following first names refer to the one and the same person:

Pradeep
Pradip


The above are the variations of the same name and should not be considered name changes. I am executing this affidavit to clear any discrepancy which may arise from official documents bearing either name “Pradip” or “Pradeep”.

So I do hereby solemnly affirm that foregoing are true and correct statements.


_______________________________ ____________
Deponent Signature Date


Acknowledged and signed in the presence of ______________________, attorney counsel.



_______________________________ ____________
Attorney Signature Date

[Reader]

Can someone who has done this already share your experience?

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?163-Birth-Certificate-Related&p=12175#post12175

[sreddy]

Sounds like you are planning provide this affidivt for spelling correction. Getting a birth certificate with corrected spelling is not that hard as far as my experienc and my friends experiences are concerned (both from same state, but different districts). I got my son's birth certificate reissued in right spelling recently (small spelling variation like yours). In my opinion you should approach the local authorities in India for re-issue with correct spelling. Was your bith registerd when you were born or around that time? if your birth registered recently, or corrected certificate cannot be issues, our law firm was not even willing to submit that birth certificate. Instead they wanted a birth affidivit as if birth was not registered. Thay also wanted couple of other evidences of birth date and father's name. In my case i provided them birth affidivit, school leaving certificate (it has date of birth, and father's name in right spelling), and PAN card issued by state tax commissioner. Hope that helps.


Hello Guys, I prepared an affidavit and I wanted to make sure that I am not missing something important. I am sorry but I find most of the activity in this thread so I am posting my affidavit here as I got no response from birth certificate thread.
Please let me know if I should add, remove or change anything.

AFFIDAVIT

English translation of same first name


I, the undersigned, Pradip (alias Pradeep) "Last name" aged – XX years, Hindu by religion, presently residing at XXXXXX, India, do hereby solemnly affirm and declare on oath that:


1. I am the deponent herein and a citizen of India.

2. I was born on XXXX, India.


3. I was married to XXX on Oct 7, 1965 in Mumbai, India.


4. I am father of my son, XXX XXXX who was born on December XXXX in Mumbai India currently residing in xxxx USA address xxxxx.


5. Pradip and Pradeep are two different ways to spell the first name from my native language of the region into English. This should not be considered name change.




6. My first name is stated as "Pradip" on my son’s birth certificate and some other relevant documents and as "Pradeep" on my son’s passport and some other relevant documents.


7. "Pradip" and "Pradeep" are phonetically accepted spelling of the same first name in India.


8. Therefore, the following first names refer to the one and the same person:

Pradeep
Pradip


The above are the variations of the same name and should not be considered name changes. I am executing this affidavit to clear any discrepancy which may arise from official documents bearing either name “Pradip” or “Pradeep”.

So I do hereby solemnly affirm that foregoing are true and correct statements.


_______________________________ ____________
Deponent Signature Date


Acknowledged and signed in the presence of ______________________, attorney counsel.



_______________________________ ____________
Attorney Signature Date

[TeddyKoochu]

Ok that number sounds unrealistic at least for me.
Is there any official source which confirmed from where Oct numbers are coming?


In my opinion, in absence of official source info, we should think that the numbers come from FY 2012 cap only.

5-6k is a huge number to do the trick of assigning number in September for approval in October, if that's even legal, Ron Gotcher doesnt agree, neither does Spectator I would like to think. Especially if you are going to claim visas ran out in half the month, and keep EB1, EB2 ROW demand waiting for that. They even put the verbiage in that memo to USCIS that the abrupt exhaustion is due to sudden demand you showed to us in August.


We will have to agree to disagree again. I am not sure if Ron agrees or not and He has been wrong multiple times in the past. I will wait for more concrete official proof.

suninphx in addition to what Nishant has said here are some additional indicators that these numbers are from the 2012 cap.

- On Trackitt the number of EB2 ROW and EB1 numbers in both Aug and Spe are closer to double than usual. This is indicative of actual high number of approvals in these months. Also note that May, June approvals of I140 were very high. I have noticed one thing that whenever CO announces that huge numbers are available like in May even USCIS goes into high gear on 140 and thereby diminishes the actual movement that CO would have done as he is bound to go by USCIS input at that time.
- CO commented in the bulletins about the heavy EB2 ROW and EB1 demands.
- In 2007 the reverse had happened the cap numbers were allocated to the cases when the date became current actual approvals came months later, here however the cap numbers cannot be legally allocated to the case as Apr 15 - Jul 15th were not current in the last 2 months of FY 2011.
- Even now there is a very high number of people in the inventory for both EB2 ROW and EB1 and with I485 processing fast these cases can be virtually made ready for approval in a month’s time.
- For the last 2 years USCIS has been announcing in early September that numbers are over this means that they did a neat job.
- In the inventory published on Oct 01 the demand for EB2 I/C for Apr - Jul is present in full and not reduced strength.
- Effectively 6K numbers have been consumes which is virtually equal to I/C annual cap. The demand data for Oct 2011 showed 2.5K as opposed to 8.5K in Sep 2011 the numbers are normally reduced in the demand data for the month in which the numbers are actually allocated.
All these points strongly indicate that the cutover from 2011 to 2012 was a clean one and all the approvals that came in Oct 2012 are from 2012 cap. I hope all these factors are convincing enough that these are indeed 2012 numbers.

[suninphx]

suninphx in addition to what Nishant has said here are some additional indicators that these numbers are from the 2012 cap.

- On Trackitt the number of EB2 ROW and EB1 numbers in both Aug and Spe are closer to double than usual. This is indicative of actual high number of approvals in these months. Also note that May, June approvals of I140 were very high. I have noticed one thing that whenever CO announces that huge numbers are available like in May even USCIS goes into high gear on 140 and thereby diminishes the actual movement that CO would have done as he is bound to go by USCIS input at that time.
- CO commented in the bulletins about the heavy EB2 ROW and EB1 demands.
- In 2007 the reverse had happened the cap numbers were allocated to the cases when the date became current actual approvals came months later, here however the cap numbers cannot be legally allocated to the case as Apr 15 - Jul 15th were not current in the last 2 months of FY 2011.
- Even now there is a very high number of people in the inventory for both EB2 ROW and EB1 and with I485 processing fast these cases can be virtually made ready for approval in a month’s time.
- For the last 2 years USCIS has been announcing in early September that numbers are over this means that they did a neat job.
- In the inventory published on Oct 01 the demand for EB2 I/C for Apr - Jul is present in full and not reduced strength.
- Effectively 6K numbers have been consumes which is virtually equal to I/C annual cap. The demand data for Oct 2011 showed 2.5K as opposed to 8.5K in Sep 2011 the numbers are normally reduced in the demand data for the month in which the numbers are actually allocated.
All these points strongly indicate that the cutover from 2011 to 2012 was a clean one and all the approvals that came in Oct 2012 are from 2012 cap. I hope all these factors are convincing enough that these are indeed 2012 numbers.

Teddy, thanks for detailed reply.

[Karma1979]

Thanks for your reply. My father's name in everything in India is registered as Pradip (for eg all my degrees from India, school leaving certificate etc) and on my passport my middle name is Pradeep, so everything after coming to USA (my master's degree, driver's license etc) I had to use Pradeep as my father's name. So changing the name on my birth certificate will not solve my problem. I have to get an affidavit showing that the same name can be spelled in two different ways in English.


Sounds like you are planning provide this affidivt for spelling correction. Getting a birth certificate with corrected spelling is not that hard as far as my experienc and my friends experiences are concerned (both from same state, but different districts). I got my son's birth certificate reissued in right spelling recently (small spelling variation like yours). In my opinion you should approach the local authorities in India for re-issue with correct spelling. Was your bith registerd when you were born or around that time? if your birth registered recently, or corrected certificate cannot be issues, our law firm was not even willing to submit that birth certificate. Instead they wanted a birth affidivit as if birth was not registered. Thay also wanted couple of other evidences of birth date and father's name. In my case i provided them birth affidivit, school leaving certificate (it has date of birth, and father's name in right spelling), and PAN card issued by state tax commissioner. Hope that helps.

[ghav369]

Hello, I have just registered to this site. Have been following this thread for the last two days and am impressed with the depth of the discussions regarding predictions about EB2, EB3 dates. Also noticed that quite a few members are active on the site. All the discussions interest me because I'm on EB2 and my PD is 02/10. Because of the positive moment in the last few months, I've been awaiting the Dec visa bulletin. According to the current trend, I think I would be eligible to apply for 485 in about a year. I know I'm being very optimistic, Any Comments or predictions about 02/10 PD?

[Ra.One]

Two positive directions/news flows around -
1.Cutoff dates moving favorably for many EB2 applicants
2.Immigration Bill H.R.3012 moving in positive direction

Things look good for EB2IC in general for now.

Does anyone see a reason/logic/distant array of hope for CO to make dates current for all to take new applicants? I know that the CO is not in favor of issuing EAD's but is there any situation where CO doesn't have any option but to make dates current for all, resulting into intake?

Thanks

[TeddyKoochu]

Ok that number sounds unrealistic at least for me.
Is there any official source which confirmed from where Oct numbers are coming?


10K from 3.5 months. Thats kind of high. Demand data of no previous month has shown 3K demand/month (except July). If my memory serves me then I think in general it has been around 2K to 2.3K per month. Any reason why you think that wont hold true?


Yes, I too think the estimation is too high.

I agree with Gclongwait's range of 2 to 2.3K at the max.


That's for EB2IC and EB3IC combined right? Teddy can easily produce 10K number out of this. With his conservative approach.


Sure. I like to go with PERM data and calculate myself. I can make my own assumptions in that case :). I am getting around 8000 which is much less than what Teddy projected.

Here is how arrived at the 10K figure. The rough assumption per month is 3K instead of 2.5K and since the later half of July had some people already in the system I just added 1K instead of 1.5K.
Now Spec's compilation is definitely a great compilation I probably cannot come even close in terms of class and caliber. Let’s discuss some of the assumptions in that compilation, Spec has himself suggested that these assumptions need
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011
60% EB2 PERM Certifications - If we compare the Jul 2007 inventory figures the ratio is higher than 66%. People who filed in EB3 post Jul 2007 have already ported to EB2, so now when the actual filing time comes it won't be a surprise if EB2 to EB3 is 75% especially for Jul - 2007 to Dec 2007. Remember at this time there were no issues with both labor and I140. 75% may look huge but it is probably closer to reality assuming someone had 0 years of experience in 2007 and had a PD of around this time now everyone has 5 years. There is no way by which these people could be accounted for in any porting calculations because they are not in the inventory. I just met a colleague his EB3 PD was Sep 2007 however he ported to EB2 recently so these are the kind of cases that will appear suddenly.
2.05 dependent ratio - We should assume that almost everyone with that kind of PD would be married (Parents in I/C do not allow that kind of freedom:) - Now with this factor it would mean that only 1 in 20 families have a non USC kid, I would assume that that probably this is like a 1 in 4 case so the factor should be atleast 2.25.
- 20% I140 denial rate is fine but 85% of 2007 people remaining are slightly liberal but let’s carry them over.
Now with just these 2 factors skewed up following is the result.
8600 * (2.25/2.05) * (75/60) = 11798.
Just by slightly modifying the 2 factors slightly we arrive at 11.5K, so 10K really is a centrist value in that regard. In all my calculations I have always maintained 3K as the density for the later half of 2007 come 2008 this definitely comes down to 2.5K and then 2K.

[asankaran]

Teddy,

If I look at Trackitt data for the month of October there are only 1 or 2 cases that have filed for 485 with PD date > July 15'2007. Does it take 4-5 months to file 485 after dates become current or does it show if there is less demand after July 15'2007.

Thanks.

Here is how arrived at the 10K figure. The rough assumption per month is 3K instead of 2.5K and since the later half of July had some people already in the system I just added 1K instead of 1.5K.
Now Spec's compilation is definitely a great compilation I probably cannot come even close in terms of class and caliber. Let’s discuss some of the assumptions in that compilation, Spec has himself suggested that these assumptions need
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011
60% EB2 PERM Certifications - If we compare the Jul 2007 inventory figures the ratio is higher than 66%. People who filed in EB3 post Jul 2007 have already ported to EB2, so now when the actual filing time comes it won't be a surprise if EB2 to EB3 is 75% especially for Jul - 2007 to Dec 2007. Remember at this time there were no issues with both labor and I140. 75% may look huge but it is probably closer to reality assuming someone had 0 years of experience in 2007 and had a PD of around this time now everyone has 5 years. There is no way by which these people could be accounted for in any porting calculations because they are not in the inventory. I just met a colleague his EB3 PD was Sep 2007 however he ported to EB2 recently so these are the kind of cases that will appear suddenly.
2.05 dependent ratio - We should assume that almost everyone with that kind of PD would be married (Parents in I/C do not allow that kind of freedom:) - Now with this factor it would mean that only 1 in 20 families have a non USC kid, I would assume that that probably this is like a 1 in 4 case so the factor should be atleast 2.25.
- 20% I140 denial rate is fine but 85% of 2007 people remaining are slightly liberal but let’s carry them over.
Now with just these 2 factors skewed up following is the result.
8600 * (2.25/2.05) * (75/60) = 11798.
Just by slightly modifying the 2 factors slightly we arrive at 11.5K, so 10K really is a centrist value in that regard. In all my calculations I have always maintained 3K as the density for the later half of 2007 come 2008 this definitely comes down to 2.5K and then 2K.

[TeddyKoochu]

Veni

This is a good post. I think on the balance this year we should see less SOFAD by 8K.

If you think about it - if USCIS starts relaxing Kazarian then that 8K will jump to upto 16K (8K unprocessed demand from prior year + 8K from this year). But the chances are less.

It is quite worrisome that EB2IC can't take EB1 spillover for granted because EB1 continues to have demand that matches or exceeds supply. In 2011 kazarian memo held EB1 processing back. Another worrisome thing isthat kazarian is resulting in more delay than denial or EB1 approvals. Which means EB1 demand continues to be there creating the potential to not only use its own quota but also utilize any EB5 spillover.

Veni that’s a great post and great observation. I believe the analogy of a road block on an expressway perfectly fits this. People who are ahead of the block are not affected and push ahead till this time the flow sees normal but all traffic behind gets slowed down. But as soon as some lanes are opened the ones who cross the roadblock can move quite fast and in fact even without the roadblock going off 70-80% flow comes back to normal ones things are organized and regulated. We may well be entering this phase that people have understood the memo well now and RFE's arising have been answered; in a few days it will be regular flow as usual. Depending on this the impact will be felt, for sure USCIS aim is to show a lower backlog the collateral damage will be all ours just as the collateral benefit last year was all ours.

[TeddyKoochu]

[QUOTE=nishant2200;12205]Friend, how much do you think should we consider worst case porting. I am open to points given by you or anyone. All I am trying to do is to understand the picture for upcoming year(s) like all of us here. I made few points about people doing masters, and also I think everyone who went to EB3 in 2008 and onwards, has gone only to reserve the PD, they are all going to port as soon as they can.

My own analysis and teddy's input later on, showed max around 4k porting for last FY. So do we think we should stick to 4k for upcoming FY. What do you guys think. Believe me, I would be most happy myself due to vested interest.[/]

Option of doing masters was always there so nothing new there. Also, eb2,eb3 depends on job description than what degree you have. You can have PHd but still be only eligible for eb3 , based on job description.
The people who are working for big shops it's extremely difficult to do eb2 in the same company. So, in most cases they have join new company. If new company is big shop they have to wait for couple of years before their process is started. If company small/ medium size then those guys are smart enough to figure out what you will do once you get GC. Hence they also delay process as much as possible. So this evens out across the years, in my opinion. I always go with mean of 3500 as porting level because I have a feeling that when we assume ratio 70:30 for eb2:eb3 we are absorbing some numbers there. Just my thoughts. We will see how it goes. It's going to be interesting.

PS: Pending cases are really worrisome as Q and Venni pointed out.

I fully agree with you. 4K is probably the maximum porting, the 6K figure from me was probably an overstatement. However by porting should we say tat were are referring to people before Jul 07 only and call people converting after Jul 07 as regular demand, because the latter will not come up in any demand data subtraction. Also the I485 inventory correlates well with the extraordinary approvals of I140. I wish everyone well because whenever CO speaks out on good date movement looks like USCIS also accelerates things greatly and when finally decision time comes to CO the picture changes. So it is important that the movement really comes in the next bulletin. Examples of this phenomenon are in the May bulletin when CO announced 12K and then backed out due to porting fears.

[TeddyKoochu]

SOFAD may be less so may be demand (depending upon where dates stop for this FY).

The key is that if CO moves the dates fast in the next bulletin itself he can close his eyes to any demand. So it’s almost imperative from our perspective that he does it sooner, later his hands may get tied.

[TeddyKoochu]

With exchange of thoughts we all had over past few days I am inclined towards believing that numbers are from FY2012. There is still unexplained mismatch between Oct and Nov demand data though ?

Nov demand data assumed Oct approvals so if you look at it this way the 6K got consumed in Oct. Also in Oct they have some older cases as well.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

If I look at Trackitt data for the month of October there are only 1 or 2 cases that have filed for 485 with PD date > July 15'2007. Does it take 4-5 months to file 485 after dates become current or does it show if there is less demand after July 15'2007.

Thanks.

People after Jul 2007 could really not file, most of them are filling now. What you see on Trackitt are cross chargeability cases (Husband - Wife) from different countries.

[suninphx]

I fully agree with you. 4K is probably the maximum porting, the 6K figure from me was probably an overstatement. However by porting should we say tat were are referring to people before Jul 07 only and call people converting after Jul 07 as regular demand, because the latter will not come up in any demand data subtraction. Also the I485 inventory correlates well with the extraordinary approvals of I140. I wish everyone well because whenever CO speaks out on good date movement looks like USCIS also accelerates things greatly and when finally decision time comes to CO the picture changes. So it is important that the movement really comes in the next bulletin. Examples of this phenomenon are in the May bulletin when CO announced 12K and then backed out due to porting fears.
In that case we should either assume higher eb2:eb3 percentage or avg eb2:eb3 (based on prev. Years) plus porting. I have seen many places people are are considering both in their calculations.

[TeddyKoochu]

In that case we should either assume higher eb2:eb3 percentage or avg eb2:eb3 (based on prev. Years) plus porting. I have seen many places people are are considering both in their calculations.

Lemme know if this way looks ok.

Post Jul 2007 EB2: EB3 - 75:25.
Porting 3K (Only prior to Jul 2007 basically EB3 preadjudicated). This is the measurable thing based on EB3 reduction. I reduced from 4 to 3K. Agree we should have it at one place.

[suninphx]

Here is how arrived at the 10K figure. The rough assumption per month is 3K instead of 2.5K and since the later half of July had some people already in the system I just added 1K instead of 1.5K.
Now Spec's compilation is definitely a great compilation I probably cannot come even close in terms of class and caliber. Let’s discuss some of the assumptions in that compilation, Spec has himself suggested that these assumptions need
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011
60% EB2 PERM Certifications - If we compare the Jul 2007 inventory figures the ratio is higher than 66%. People who filed in EB3 post Jul 2007 have already ported to EB2, so now when the actual filing time comes it won't be a surprise if EB2 to EB3 is 75% especially for Jul - 2007 to Dec 2007. Remember at this time there were no issues with both labor and I140. 75% may look huge but it is probably closer to reality assuming someone had 0 years of experience in 2007 and had a PD of around this time now everyone has 5 years. There is no way by which these people could be accounted for in any porting calculations because they are not in the inventory. I just met a colleague his EB3 PD was Sep 2007 however he ported to EB2 recently so these are the kind of cases that will appear suddenly.
2.05 dependent ratio - We should assume that almost everyone with that kind of PD would be married (Parents in I/C do not allow that kind of freedom:) - Now with this factor it would mean that only 1 in 20 families have a non USC kid, I would assume that that probably this is like a 1 in 4 case so the factor should be atleast 2.25.
- 20% I140 denial rate is fine but 85% of 2007 people remaining are slightly liberal but let’s carry them over.
Now with just these 2 factors skewed up following is the result.
8600 * (2.25/2.05) * (75/60) = 11798.
Just by slightly modifying the 2 factors slightly we arrive at 11.5K, so 10K really is a centrist value in that regard. In all my calculations I have always maintained 3K as the density for the later half of 2007 come 2008 this definitely comes down to 2.5K and then 2K.

Teddy - I don't think porting is as simple as you are projecting here. Just because you got 5 years experience or did masters does not mean you automatically go into eb2. As you know there are certain steps ( which I explained in another post) before a person can port to eb2. Now these steps induce a time lag thus averaging out overall porting effort over the years. That's my main hypothesis about this porting.

Also, I do not quite really agree with 2.25 ratio. Anyways we will know in few months. Thanks for your time for detailed explanation.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy - I don't think porting is as simple as you are projecting here. Just because you got 5 years experience or did masters does not mean you automatically go into eb2. As you know there are certain steps ( which I explained in another post) before a person can port to eb2. Now these steps induce a time lag thus averaging out overall porting effort over the years. That's my main hypothesis about this porting.

Also, I do not quite really agree with 2.25 ratio. Anyways we will know in few months. Thanks for your time for detailed explanation.

That’s ok, I respect your opinion. What is your take on the ratio EB2 : EB3 if its 75: 25 we will still cross 10K. In fact with 70-30 we reach 10K.

[suninphx]

That’s ok, I respect your opinion. What is your take on the ratio EB2 : EB3 if its 75: 25 we wil still reach 10K. In fact with 70-30 we reach 10K.

Yeah agree. You know why I hate your opinions because they are very conservative and they are right most of the times :)