EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[druvraj]

Guru's,
My Dad is a doctor and I have the vaccination record from when I was born in India. Will that be sufficient or I still have to get them from here in US? BTW I am not current yet but close.

[gc0907]

I asked my lawyer and he said USCIS is fine.


Even my lawyer asked for check $1070 payable to USCIS

Even I noticed 485 insturctions but I didn't question my attorney on this one.


I got a copy of the 485 application (that was filed for my spouse on 10/3) from the attorney's office. I just checked that and I see that the check was made payable to "U.S. Department of Homeland Security". Hope this helps!

[qesehmk]

I am not aware of any law that says you have to work the company for X number of days. Generally lawyers advise 6 months after GC is approved.

I would think that in case you are no lonegr with your GC sponsor prior to completion of 6 months post GC approval, that you leaving voluntarily would be frowned upon much more than you being fired or RIR at your work place.



Also, please tell me what if the company fires me just after I get my GC? Will my GC be revoked?

[polapragada]

What is happening...

intially I thought in in 1st Q FY2012 (OCT -DEC 2011) they are going to 2700 (For India alone) visas while they build BTM for rest of the year!

But just checked Trackitt..there are 80 approvals from Oct 1 - OCT 15 in EB2I
with the assumtion 5% cases in Trackitt...80*20 = 1600..and its only half of the month..and not likely to slow down the approvals...so by end of the Oct,2011 the approval count would reach 2700 or a little higher..

Does this imply no approals at all in Nov,11? and zero approvals in dec, 2011..until they decide to quarterly SO...Sounds not right...I am loosing my mind with this trend!!!

[nishant2200]

USCIS processing times updated on October 18, 2011:


Nebraska NSC
- EB1 and EB2 I-140 : April 2011 (6 months back)
- I-485 : 4 months

Texas TSC

- All I-140 including EB1 and EB2 : April 2011 (6 months)
- I-485 : for EB, March 2011 (7 months back)

---------------------
NSC which was doing better is also now getting bogged on 140 processing. TSC was already not doing great, it's still not doing great, as well as it's bogged on EB 485 also.

One question guys who got current last two months etc, where did your 485 receipts come from, NSC or TSC. I want to see which service center is taking the bulk of new 485 applications.

[nishant2200]

USCIS Q&A:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Notes%20from%20Previous%20Engagements/2011/October%202011/QandA_AILA_Fall%202011_mtg.pdf

It indicates that they are still following Kazarian for EB1A, EB1B and EB2 NIW.

And they say that they tried to reduce backlog for EB1 in last FY (in the end), but looks like they are still again getting behind. My personal feeling is that they have hit a plateau in terms of processing backlog, there will be spurts here and there like last quarter of FY 2011, to make their books look bit clean to the higher powers, but unless they increase fees and get more manpower, it's not going to happen drastically.

[nishant2200]

I know what you are confused about, me too. I have not yet seen a reasonable explanation.

really, at this point, I don't even know what will happen next VB.

Hopefully though, this year will set forth a trend, and then next year on, we shall know strategy of CO.


What is happening...

intially I thought in in 1st Q FY2012 (OCT -DEC 2011) they are going to 2700 (For India alone) visas while they build BTM for rest of the year!

But just checked Trackitt..there are 80 approvals from Oct 1 - OCT 15 in EB2I
with the assumtion 5% cases in Trackitt...80*20 = 1600..and its only half of the month..and not likely to slow down the approvals...so by end of the Oct,2011 the approval count would reach 2700 or a little higher..

Does this imply no approals at all in Nov,11? and zero approvals in dec, 2011..until they decide to quarterly SO...Sounds not right...I am loosing my mind with this trend!!!

[red2green]

I got Tdap and not sure if it was because this was my second dose of vaccine for Tetanus. I got my first one couple years back in India.

Since your blood test results says you are immune and don't require the vaccines that is sufficient proof.
If you got the copy of I693 form signed by CS, then look on page 4(#5 Vaccinations). See what he has mentioned for each vaccines listed.
Mostly there will be an entry in Date Received / or lab results or Not Age Appropriate.

At the end of the list in Results he should have checked:"Vaccination history complete for each vaccine, all requirements met."

Thanks guys for quick responses.

On page 4, 'Vaccines Date Given by CS' column filled for Td,MMR,varicella,influenza and all other vaccines checked as 'Not age appropriate' - No other columns used.
And yes,at the bottom 'all requirements met' box is checked. seems like I should be fine. Thanks for the info.

btw, I asked CS if additional docs like blood test results/vaccines given record etc should be attached to I-693 in the envelope, he said not necessary and sealed it (only 693 form inside).

[Kanmani]

What is happening...

intially I thought in in 1st Q FY2012 (OCT -DEC 2011) they are going to 2700 (For India alone) visas while they build BTM for rest of the year!

But just checked Trackitt..there are 80 approvals from Oct 1 - OCT 15 in EB2I
with the assumtion 5% cases in Trackitt...80*20 = 1600..and its only half of the month..and not likely to slow down the approvals...so by end of the Oct,2011 the approval count would reach 2700 or a little higher..

Does this imply no approals at all in Nov,11? and zero approvals in dec, 2011..until they decide to quarterly SO...Sounds not right...I am loosing my mind with this trend!!!

The approval trend shows the priority dates are allover from Apr 15 2007 to July 15 2007. I noticed one july 13 2007 pd approval while july 14, july 15 of 2007 are happened to be saturday and sunday.

So, I doubt USCIS cannot have a policy to approve a part of apr-july batch and make the rest of them to wait until the spillover season and also apr-july batch total exceeds the 2800 quota .

My questions are
1. Are we expecting a quarterly spillover ?
2. Are these visa numbers from 2011 FY?

[veni001]

What is happening...

intially I thought in in 1st Q FY2012 (OCT -DEC 2011) they are going to 2700 (For India alone) visas while they build BTM for rest of the year!

But just checked Trackitt..there are 80 approvals from Oct 1 - OCT 15 in EB2I
with the assumtion 5% cases in Trackitt...80*20 = 1600..and its only half of the month..and not likely to slow down the approvals...so by end of the Oct,2011 the approval count would reach 2700 or a little higher..

Does this imply no approals at all in Nov,11? and zero approvals in dec, 2011..until they decide to quarterly SO...Sounds not right...I am loosing my mind with this trend!!!

I think 5% assumption could be really low...


The approval trend shows the priority dates are allover from Apr 15 2007 to July 15 2007. I noticed one july 13 2007 pd approval while july 14, july 15 of 2007 are happened to be saturday and sunday.

So, I doubt USCIS cannot have a policy to approve a part of apr-july batch and make the rest of them to wait until the spillover season and also apr-july batch total exceeds the 2800 quota .

My questions are
1. Are we expecting a quarterly spillover ?
2. Are these visa numbers from 2011 FY?

Again we did not have any precedence for quarterly spillover, so until we see visa usage data for Q1 published, we don't know.

Based on DOS document dated 09/15/11 (http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/DOS-Alert-re-EB-Visa-Numbers.pdf) #2 can be ruled out!

[veni001]

I asked my lawyer and he said USCIS is fine.


Originally Posted by gc0907
Even my lawyer asked for check $1070 payable to USCIS

Even I noticed 485 insturctions but I didn't question my attorney on this one.


Originally Posted by knight
I got a copy of the 485 application (that was filed for my spouse on 10/3) from the attorney's office. I just checked that and I see that the check was made payable to "U.S. Department of Homeland Security". Hope this helps!


Even though USCIS is part of DHS (http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/dhs-orgchart.pdf), i would stick with i485 instructions irrespective of what the attorney or paralegal said.

[Kanmani]

Veni , Just for the sake self analysis I am putting down the following ..

apr-july were already adjudicated and in a scenario where Dos were expecting a EB1 backlog clearance ( as discussed in the Q&A sec of AILA meeting oct 5 2011) .......... which was not duly happened around 09/01/2011, So Dos took immediate action in the oct bulletin released on 09/09/2011 moving IC dates to July 15 2007, and attaching visa numbers to them, later announcing visa numbers exhausted ..............:confused:

[veni001]

Veni , Just for the sake self analysis I am putting down the following ..

apr-july were already adjudicated and in a scenario where Dos were expecting a EB1 backlog clearance ( as discussed in the Q&A sec of AILA meeting oct 5 2011) .......... which was not duly happened around 09/01/2011, So Dos took immediate action in the oct bulletin released on 09/09/2011 moving IC dates to July 15 2007, and attaching visa numbers to them, later announcing visa numbers exhausted ..............:confused:

Kanmani,
In that event i would expect at-lest, if not higher, similar to first-half of September approval trend in the second-half on trackitt.

[qblogfan]

me too. I don't know what's going on with DOS/USCIS.

They have approved more than 100 Chinese EB-2 reporting on mitbbs.

I think their target is to approve all the cases that are current, no matter how much quota it requires.


I know what you are confused about, me too. I have not yet seen a reasonable explanation.

really, at this point, I don't even know what will happen next VB.

Hopefully though, this year will set forth a trend, and then next year on, we shall know strategy of CO.

[nishant2200]

One theory can be that they are going to respect the 15th April 2007 to 15th July 2007 move by utilizing all available quota for EB2 I/C in first quarter and citing low usage of EB2 ROW in first quarter as a means to respect the law.

Also they might have cleaned out some 485s from pending queue (requested EVL, no response, data entry errors, etc.)

And since this is not spillover visas, they can approve in any order for period that is current, no need of ordering by PD.

It seems to me that as CO indicated, he did really plan to move in the Sep VB to 1st July 2007, but his plans got spoiled by sudden huge demand pointed out by USCIS for EB1, EB2 ROW due to backlog reduction effort of I-140, and hence CO had to be creative.

I definitely think they are on course to meet similar as Q1 FY 2011, to meet half of the available EB2 I/C quota, are they going to in fact go on top of that and meet full quota.

I am going crazy thinking about possibilities.

Questions like:
Why moved till 15th July 2007, and not 15th August 2007 in Oct VB.

Why moved till 1st Nov 2007, and not 15th Oct 2007 in Nov VB.

If we know answers to these, we would be knowing better about CO's strategy.

100 Chinese EB2 on mittbbs is quite a lot.


me too. I don't know what's going on with DOS/USCIS.

They have approved more than 100 Chinese EB-2 reporting on mitbbs.

I think their target is to approve all the cases that are current, no matter how much quota it requires.

[cbpds1]

I thought ur question wud be
Why moved till 1st Nov 2007, and not 15th Nov 2007 in Nov VB.

It doesnt matter why they are approving many 485's now, its a good thing. It will reduce the backlog and more ppl can file their 485's, I think it more evident to see cases getting approved mainly because there are almost no cases from 2006 and most of the 2007 folks are members of trackit etc.

Again just deciphering.




Questions like:
Why moved till 15th July 2007, and not 15th August 2007 in Oct VB.

Why moved till 1st Nov 2007, and not 15th Oct 2007 in Nov VB.

If we know answers to these, we would be knowing better about CO's strategy.

100 Chinese EB2 on mittbbs is quite a lot.

[nishant2200]

:) cbpds1, I try to be not biased by my PD. Honestly I felt 15th Oct 2007 would be the reachable goal, but they surpassed that by 15 days.

As you said, we can just try to decipher.

I sincerely hope that they do another such 3.5 or even more move, and more of our friends can get in. I know you would like that!


I thought ur question wud be
Why moved till 1st Nov 2007, and not 15th Nov 2007 in Nov VB.

It doesnt matter why they are approving many 485's now, its a good thing. It will reduce the backlog and more ppl can file their 485's, I think it more evident to see cases getting approved mainly because there are almost no cases from 2006 and most of the 2007 folks are members of trackit etc.

Again just deciphering.

[cbpds1]

good one !!!, lets sail together :)


:) cbpds1, I try to be not biased by my PD. Honestly I felt 15th Oct 2007 would be the reachable goal, but they surpassed that by 15 days.

As you said, we can just try to decipher.

I sincerely hope that they do another such 3.5 or even more move, and more of our friends can get in. I know you would like that!

[nishant2200]

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?64-Birth-Certificate-Related-Issues..

is the thread where you may find info. there is active discussion there.


Hi ,

During the process of applying for Adjustment of status, birth certificate needs to be produced. And I don't have one.
But I have an affidavit from Indian Consulate Houston, Texas stating the facts usually presented on a birth certificate.
Is the affidavit along with Xth school certificate enough ? If not please advise.

Thanks

[pch053]

100 Chinese EB2 on mittbbs is quite a lot.

Do we have an idea on what 100 approvals in mittbs will translate to *actual* I485 approvals for EB2C in the month of Oct. Similarly for EB2-I, there are around 70+ approvals in trackitt; I will be curious to know what the corresponding number will be for *actual* approvals for EB2-I. For the month of Oct, we have around 6K EB2-I+C cases that got current (PDs from mid-April'07 to mid-July'07) plus anywhere between 1K - 2K cases that were pending from last year (incl. EB3->EB2 porting). So, overall, we have 7K - 8K cases that are ready to be approved and (probably) pre-adjudicated. For the month of Nov., we will have another 2K cases with PD between mid-July'07 to mid-Aug'07 in the above category. I think, it will take ~3 months for the PWMB cases (w/PD after 15th April'07) to appear in the inventory; so it is unlikely we will see PWMB approvals this year.

Irrespective of the above numbers, I do think it makes more sense to move forward the dates by 3 - 4months in the Dec bulletin and retrogress later on if needed as opposed to moving forward slowly by few weeks to one month at a time.

[qblogfan]

yes, it's very important to understand Mr.Co's plan, but we will never understand him. He gives people thing we never expect.

On the MITBBS, I saw many people got GC, but some folks with PD 2006.11 are still pending, but I believe at least half of the cases before 7.15 already got GC in the first two weeks.


One theory can be that they are going to respect the 15th April 2007 to 15th July 2007 move by utilizing all available quota for EB2 I/C in first quarter and citing low usage of EB2 ROW in first quarter as a means to respect the law.

Also they might have cleaned out some 485s from pending queue (requested EVL, no response, data entry errors, etc.)

And since this is not spillover visas, they can approve in any order for period that is current, no need of ordering by PD.

It seems to me that as CO indicated, he did really plan to move in the Sep VB to 1st July 2007, but his plans got spoiled by sudden huge demand pointed out by USCIS for EB1, EB2 ROW due to backlog reduction effort of I-140, and hence CO had to be creative.

I definitely think they are on course to meet similar as Q1 FY 2011, to meet half of the available EB2 I/C quota, are they going to in fact go on top of that and meet full quota.

I am going crazy thinking about possibilities.

Questions like:
Why moved till 15th July 2007, and not 15th August 2007 in Oct VB.

Why moved till 1st Nov 2007, and not 15th Oct 2007 in Nov VB.

If we know answers to these, we would be knowing better about CO's strategy.

100 Chinese EB2 on mittbbs is quite a lot.

[grnwtg]

As we discussed earlier, they might approve 5800 visas plus few spill overs if they want. Probably next month also we would see same pattern in approvals for remaining applicants from spill over.
I believe similar to Nishant, they also cleaned up inventory and probably we have far less than 8000 as pending visas.



yes, it's very important to understand Mr.Co's plan, but we will never understand him. He gives people thing we never expect.

On the MITBBS, I saw many people got GC, but some folks with PD 2006.11 are still pending, but I believe at least half of the cases before 7.15 already got GC in the first two weeks.

[vishnu]

My guess is that they are trying to get the demand data (documentarily qualified) for the next period as close to zero. The PWMBs are not going to appear for a few months at least. Meaning prior pending inventory will almost be done with. That way, even if they move dates significantly (the BTM), there is no pressure on USCIS to use FIFO with processing. The optimist in way tells me this is setting the stage up for a BTM - perhaps not next month but soon.

[grnwtg]

Ideally they should do that. They need to build inventory for 1-1.25 yrs with last years data statistics and then giving GC's with respect to priority dates and not just randomly who are current.


My guess is that they are trying to get the demand data (documentarily qualified) for the next period as close to zero. The PWMBs are not going to appear for a few months at least. Meaning prior pending inventory will almost be done with. That way, even if they move dates significantly (the BTM), there is no pressure on USCIS to use FIFO with processing. The optimist in way tells me this is setting the stage up for a BTM - perhaps not next month but soon.

[nishant2200]

Ideally they should do that. They need to build inventory for 1-1.25 yrs with last years data statistics and then giving GC's with respect to priority dates and not just randomly who are current.

A kind of similar crazy thought occurred to me last night. If they indeed hack the demand data numbers to justify the date movement, then next demand data should be near to 0, if they can put some approximation formula in place about date movement vs expected numbers. Can't not a 3.5 month movement eat away the few thousand left in demand data as well as few PWMB and porters who got in that period.

A flip side of this reasoning is somehow if next demand data, big numbers return back showing, then we might be screwed.

[veni001]

A kind of similar crazy thought occurred to me last night. If they indeed hack the demand data numbers to justify the date movement, then next demand data should be near to 0, if they can put some approximation formula in place about date movement vs expected numbers. Can't not a 3.5 month movement eat away the few thousand left in demand data as well as few PWMB and porters who got in that period.

A flip side of this reasoning is somehow if next demand data, big numbers return back showing, then we might be screwed.

It may not be zero, Spec pointed that USCIS will count all pending 485's in their demand data if the underlying i140 is approved.
If this is true them all PWMB until 15JUL2007 will show up in demand data for December, since all of them should have approval by now.

[vishnu]

veni - i think they count pending 485s only in inventory report and not demand data.

[nishant2200]

It may not be zero, Spec pointed that USCIS will count all pending 485's in their demand data if the underlying i140 is approved.
If this is true them all PWMB until 15JUL2007 will show up in demand data for December, since all of them should have approval by now.

But this also means 485 is pre-adjudicated? Also they must have set aside some numbers to justify the move, those numbers should be enough to eat away this new demand. That is why I said if they show big numbers in demand data next it means they are done with movement and will stop or retro. If they dont show big numbers means they are still moving along with the fake psuedo reserve numbers game.

[grnwtg]

I believe next demand data should shoot up as there will be new 485 applications and it increase a lot for January inventory which it should. I too believe that if demand reduces to near zero then definetly they are trying to build big inventory and dates will move( in not next, in January bulletin).
I dont think there is a way for anybody to see if they are really mocking up data.


But this also means 485 is pre-adjudicated? Also they must have set aside some numbers to justify the move, those numbers should be enough to eat away this new demand. That is why I said if they show big numbers in demand data next it means they are done with movement and will stop or retro. If they dont show big numbers means they are still moving along with the fake psuedo reserve numbers game.

[veni001]

But this also means 485 is pre-adjudicated? Also they must have set aside some numbers to justify the move, those numbers should be enough to eat away this new demand. That is why I said if they show big numbers in demand data next it means they are done with movement and will stop or retro. If they dont show big numbers means they are still moving along with the fake psuedo reserve numbers game.

Nishant,
As Q pointed several times date movement is discretionary once EB2IC move past July 2007, which it did in the last two VB.

I don't think any one going to question on EB2IC date movement, as long as DOS/USCIS keep visa usage within their quarterly limits.

[veni001]

veni - i think they count pending 485s only in inventory report and not demand data.

vishnu,

Based on inventory, demand data trend both are more or less same.

[grnwtg]

I take back on what i said, demand data pdf clearly states that it is the data of qualified candidates,

Here is the notes which will be written in these documents:
Notes:
- All totals are approximate values
- Categories not listed are "current"
Demand Data Used in the Determination
- Data as of October 4, 2011
The imposition of cut-off dates for some categories/countries has limited the amount of applicants who have
been able to file for adjustment of status with USCIS, and such applicants would not be included in the above
totals. In addition, new applicants are constantly becoming eligible for processing in categories for which cutoff
dates do not apply. Therefore, the above totals should not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of
applicant demand. These totals only represent the amount of demand which was taken into consideration
during the determination of the monthly cut-off dates



I believe next demand data should shoot up as there will be new 485 applications and it increase a lot for January inventory which it should. I too believe that if demand reduces to near zero then definetly they are trying to build big inventory and dates will move( in not next, in January bulletin).
I dont think there is a way for anybody to see if they are really mocking up data.

[soggadu]

Why moved till 1st Nov 2007, and not 15th Oct 2007 in Nov VB.

dude... because it has to cover my PD....i will never question even it moves > Nov 8 ;-)

[indiasunil]

Soggadu - Yours Nov. 08 ? I thought you already current.

[cbpds1]

It will be good if Q, Teddy or Spec pitch in with their thoughts about the comparitively unexpected amount of approvals in trackkit.

[soggadu]

Soggadu - Yours Nov. 08 ? I thought you already current.

Nishants is 08 Nov which i was refering to... how r ur 485 filing preparations sunil? u r current right?

[indiasunil]

Nishants is 08 Nov which i was refering to... how r ur 485 filing preparations sunil? u r current right?

See my Avathar !!... :-) .. aayega.. jarooor ayega

[qesehmk]

I think especially if the approvals are in 2007 then one should expect the trackitt ratio to be much lower than 16 for EB2IC given how much time theseguys have been on their 485s.

We can't look at 100 trackitt approvals and say that it represents 100*25 = 2500 approvals. 2 years back that was true. Not any longer.

Today I will be surprised if EB2IC trackitt ratio is more than 3-4 for people w PD < Jul 2007. In other words I would expect very very high percentage of EB2IC folks to havetheir cases entered into trackitt when their dates are into H1 of 2007.

Having said that I do believe that DOS is proactively and in an unusual manner approving EB2IC cases. I do believe that their usage seems to not indicate towards exceeding EB2IC maximum allocation in Q1. It needs to be understood that this is different than quarterly spillover (QS). QS would work only AFTER the quarter has ended. In this case they are on a visa allocation binge (good for all backlogged countries!) when the quarter has just started. So to be honest it could be anybody's guess what DOS is actually doing.

p.s. - I also want to say that I do think a sgnificanti number of 2007 EB2I folks actually may have gone back to India. Which MAY explain why the dates were moved so forward so fast. Unfortunately right now there isnothing we can do other than wait for 485 inventory to come out.



It will be good if Q, Teddy or Spec pitch in with their thoughts about the comparitively unexpected amount of approvals in trackkit.

[needid]

Update: I had to take only tetanus shot.Rest were there in my body.PPD was postive, X-ray clean, But still Doc prescribed isoniazid as a precaution and asked to comeback for lever check up after a month.

Docs will go to Attorney today.

[essenel]

Some pages back, there was a discussion about whom the I-485 checks should be addressed to (USCIS or DHS). What about the EVL? Whom should that be addressed to? I have asked my lawyer, but he's a little slow in responding. I will delete this post after I get a couple of answers. Thanks!

[suninphx]

p.s. - I also want to say that I do think a sgnificanti number of 2007 EB2I folks actually may have gone back to India. Which MAY explain why the dates were moved so forward so fast. Unfortunately right now there isnothing we can do other than wait for 485 inventory to come out.

Q- what is your your thought process behind this. I am curious to know if same logic is applicable to people with PD2008/09.

[cbpds1]

Thanks for clearing the air Mr Q !!

[QUOTE=qesehmk;11391]I think especially if the approvals are in 2007 then one should expect the trackitt ratio to be much lower than 16 for EB2IC given how much time theseguys have been on their 485s.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Gurus,

Are we able to infer a Quarterly Spillover possibility based on the latest movement ?

Can we with some reasonable certainty see some movement to little more movement in the next VB or is it still a conundrum ?

Next VB is really weighing heavy in our wait up to the VB release.

[qesehmk]

The reason being work place is becoming tougher for everybody. with 9% americans withoutjobs, H1B is a very easy target in general.

On top of that from candidate perspective there are so many indians who find losing out on India economically and socially not so enticing. So with US economy isnt attractive enough to go through GC uncertainty for so many indians especially when back home its all booming even today. Justtoday TCSannounced 40K workers will be hired in near future.

So many people with older PDs may have gone back.



Q- what is your your thought process behind this. I am curious to know if same logic is applicable to people with PD2008/09.


Gurus,

Are we able to infer a Quarterly Spillover possibility based on the latest movement ?

Can we with some reasonable certainty see some movement to little more movement in the next VB or is it still a conundrum ?

Next VB is really weighing heavy in our wait up to the VB release.


Quarterly spillover doesn't kick in so soon. One would;ve to wait till end of Q1. Whatever this is - is NOT QS.

[qblogfan]

I agree with you completely. Many of my Indian classmates have located jobs and moved to New Delhi and Mumbai areas. Some of my Chinese friends also gave up GC, although they were able to get 140 approved, especially for the guys who were single. The 2007 Fiasco allowed many people rush into their system, but some of these guys were disappointed and frustrated by the 1500+ days long wait, so many of them have gone back home.

I think we should see some further movement in the coming months.


The reason being work place is becoming tougher for everybody. with 9% americans withoutjobs, H1B is a very easy target in general.

On top of that from candidate perspective there are so many indians who find losing out on India economically and socially not so enticing. So with US economy isnt attractive enough to go through GC uncertainty for so many indians especially when back home its all booming even today. Justtoday TCSannounced 40K workers will be hired in near future.

So many people with older PDs may have gone back.







Quarterly spillover doesn't kick in so soon. One would;ve to wait till end of Q1. Whatever this is - is NOT QS.

[leo4ever]

The reason being work place is becoming tougher for everybody. with 9% americans withoutjobs, H1B is a very easy target in general.

On top of that from candidate perspective there are so many indians who find losing out on India economically and socially not so enticing. So with US economy isnt attractive enough to go through GC uncertainty for so many indians especially when back home its all booming even today. Justtoday TCSannounced 40K workers will be hired in near future.

So many people with older PDs may have gone back.

Quarterly spillover doesn't kick in so soon. One would;ve to wait till end of Q1. Whatever this is - is NOT QS.

Q,

If its true it gives me a lot of hope. Most of those with PD's before Jul 07 with EAD would not have gone to India as they have EAD to get on. I think those who missed the boat and also with PD's end of 2007 or early of 2008 might have.

I am basing my guess based on couple of my friends who had their PD in 2007 Dec / Feb 2008, but they are just 2 out of 100's i know....

[vizcard]

leo - you know 100s :P ?? you mean folks on forums right?

Seriously though I don't know anyone who left because they were "fed up" of the process or even who lost jobs. If that is indeed true its awesome for folks in mid-2008 (like me) and later.

[qesehmk]

Leo

I don't really have hard data. But looking at economy and situation around, I find it very hard to think that 100% of whoever applied in 2007 was able to retain their jobs or otherwise get another jobs in case lost the first one.

And then there are people ( I know quite a few first hand) who dont value all this GC struggle that much. Typically these people have their home bases in Mumbai Delhi Blore etc where there are tons of opportunities.

But again ... this is so subjective discussion ... one can argue eitherway. I wish there is a way to predict how many abandoned their GC process.


Q,

If its true it gives me a lot of hope. Most of those with PD's before Jul 07 with EAD would not have gone to India as they have EAD to get on. I think those who missed the boat and also with PD's end of 2007 or early of 2008 might have.

I am basing my guess based on couple of my friends who had their PD in 2007 Dec / Feb 2008, but they are just 2 out of 100's i know....

[asankaran]

Hi Q,

I really like the approach you are taking for the prediction discussion. It is extremely difficult to maintain H1 status and also file in EB2 after July 2007 under the current market conditions.

I came here in 2007 and personally seen the worst in this country, relocating from one location to another with family. I don't think anyone from India after 2007 would really be interested to go through that pain and wonder even if it is really worth it, unless they have been in real bad financial situation.

I feel this country is no longer attractive for legal immigrants!

Leo

I don't really have hard data. But looking at economy and situation around, I find it very hard to think that 100% of whoever applied in 2007 was able to retain their jobs or otherwise get another jobs in case lost the first one.

And then there are people ( I know quite a few first hand) who dont value all this GC struggle that much. Typically these people have their home bases in Mumbai Delhi Blore etc where there are tons of opportunities.

But again ... this is so subjective discussion ... one can argue eitherway. I wish there is a way to predict how many abandoned their GC process.

[qesehmk]

Thanks asankaran. People are trying to figure out the method to CO's madness in approving what seems is large quantities of EB2IC backlog so early in the year. And given that law doesn't allow him to spillover unless teh quarter is over, the only other possible explanation that seems plausible to me is that there is a good amount of GCs that are abandoned. I could be wrong. But honestly I do not know where CO will get all these visas without violating the law.

As per US being attractive .... i think US is like shaadi kaa laddu. Jo khaye woh pachataye .... jo na khaye woh bhee pachataye! So one might as well eat it and then repent :)


Hi Q,

I really like the approach you are taking for the prediction discussion. It is extremely difficult to maintain H1 status and also file in EB2 after July 2007 under the current market conditions.

I came here in 2007 and personally seen the worst in this country, relocating from one location to another with family. I don't think anyone from India after 2007 would really be interested to go through that pain and wonder even if it is really worth it, unless they have been in real bad financial situation.

I feel this country is no longer attractive for legal immigrants!

[nishant2200]

Guys, just today a near by huge company, the number one biotech company in world, won't take names here, laid off people from its R&D department. My two friends in that department, luckily escaped, and they are current in Nov VB and are preparing to file 485. One more friend, got laid off, but had just got the GC 6 days back. Luck. But not everyone would have been so lucky in last few years, as well as the other reasons people have mentioned.

One has to throw in a caution though, Spec has already baked in a drop off factor into the figures he has put up in facts and data, so it's not that we have not considered this.

I feel bad for people who suffered layoff or left for various reasons if they were not happy about it, but it may very well be the big help we need this year. FY 2010 we got FB 10k surprise help, FY 2011 we got the EB1 12k help (I think EB2 ROW caught up with usage later on) and low SYAs, and FY 2012 may very well turn out to be the unexpected help due to bad economy and H1 scrutiny taking a toll right now as well as through last few years on folks not having protection of EAD/AP.

For FY 2012, I still see Kazarian in place tormenting EB1A, EB1B, EB2 NIW. EB2ROW usage nothing has changed to suggest a dramatic surge in applications. EB5 US is trying to sell to people almost GC for money, smart investor will not put money in US right now, unless its throwaway cash and wants a backup for his kids in this country (read rich people in India and China). Doesnt look like USCIS is going great guns on 140 backlog at least right now. EB1C PP is not going to take place until next year. The EB1C PP and the 140 backlog reduction if happens, can cause problems.

This is all just speculation, just few weeks back we were thinking of doomsday case this year, with barely 18k SOFAD coming up, only till Oct 1st 2007 getting GC and so on.

We don't have data yet to speculate completely either way. Let's hope for the best.

ps: Q, I am really enjoying the laddu. I always say to my friend, that if something unfortunate happens and I get kicked out, I will go as no choice, but otherwise I love USA.


Thanks asankaran. People are trying to figure out the method to CO's madness in approving what seems is large quantities of EB2IC backlog so early in the year. And given that law doesn't allow him to spillover unless teh quarter is over, the only other possible explanation that seems plausible to me is that there is a good amount of GCs that are abandoned. I could be wrong. But honestly I do not know where CO will get all these visas without violating the law.

As per US being attractive .... i think US is like shaadi kaa laddu. Jo khaye woh pachataye .... jo na khaye woh bhee pachataye! So one might as well eat it and then repent :)

[leo4ever]

Q,

If its true it gives me a lot of hope. Most of those with PD's before Jul 07 with EAD would not have gone to India as they have EAD to get on. I think those who missed the boat and also with PD's end of 2007 or early of 2008 might have.

I am basing my guess based on couple of my friends who had their PD in 2007 Dec / Feb 2008, but they are just 2 out of 100's i know....

Sorry if I was not clear. I meant to say I just know 2 friends (firsthand info) who left US.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Q, I just wish that the explanation you have provided regarding CO's methodical madness holds true. Abandonment of a big chunk of green cards may trigger larger VB movements and can help many people like me who are stuck in this backlog and may remain stuck for next 5-6 years. (My PD is 05/20/11 so obviously I wouldn't mind regular big movements)

Sadly, there is no way to predict what is going on in CO's mind unless one is a Leonardo DiCaprio of Inception. And as qblogfan frequently says, CO does exactly opposite of what everyone is expecting. So I am not getting very optimistic but your logic behind this large scale EB2IC approval so early in the year is very palatable and I again hope your are right. :o



Thanks asankaran. People are trying to figure out the method to CO's madness in approving what seems is large quantities of EB2IC backlog so early in the year. And given that law doesn't allow him to spillover unless teh quarter is over, the only other possible explanation that seems plausible to me is that there is a good amount of GCs that are abandoned. I could be wrong. But honestly I do not know where CO will get all these visas without violating the law.

As per US being attractive .... i think US is like shaadi kaa laddu. Jo khaye woh pachataye .... jo na khaye woh bhee pachataye! So one might as well eat it and then repent :)

[kd2008]

I just don't understand why CO does not make the dates current? Accept applications, retrogress and you get FIFO. Everybody is happy.

Yeah, there will be a huge burden on USCIS and it will create backlogs ..blah..blah blah. Like USCIS is really efficient and knows what it is doing. They have backlog problems in everything they do. I-485 filing pile up should be least of their worries.

[mysati]

I still cannot understand / reconcile the numbers, if the GCs being allocated from Oct-3rd are from this year's quota, how come the cut-off date for EB2-C not move ahead of EB2-I's cut-off date? Someone had asked this question earlier in the forum but it did not seem to get much traction. Can anyone please provide some insight?

[nishant2200]

I still cannot understand / reconcile the numbers, if the GCs being allocated from Oct-3rd are from this year's quota, how come the cut-off date for EB2-C not move ahead of EB2-I's cut-off date? Someone had asked this question earlier in the forum but it did not seem to get much traction. Can anyone please provide some insight?

Also the reduction in demand data was more from India than from China.

I agree, no one has any reasonable explanation as to what's going on. Currently only reasoning which seems to fit the bill is cleanup of inventory for "dead" 485s.

1. Cannot be FY 2011 numbers, as numbers ran out on Sep 15th and reason cited was due to sudden demand shown by USCIS in august, which we know was for pending EB1 and EB2ROW
2. Cannot be quarterly SO, as that happens after end of quarter
3. Very difficult to say it is entire EB2I/C quota because then to stay within the 27% limit rule would be difficult.
4. Very difficult to say it's FB SO from last year, as all FB categories are not current, leave alone notion of at least one being current.

[meetasn]

I saw the following approvals on Trackit for 11/19/2011
EB2 May 01 2007 TSC(India)
EB3 Nov 22 2005 TSC(Germany)
EB2 FEB 20 2011 NSC(Canada)
EB2 APR 29 2007 NSC(India)
EB2 JUL 11 2007 NSC(India)
EB2 APR 13 2007 NSC(India)
Eb2 JUL 13 2007 NSC(India)
EB2 FEB 22 2007 NSC(India)

Hope there will be a huge movement in Next VB

[imdeng]

I think we give a lot more credit to CO's legislative constraints than they deserve. We think of all the laws that he HAS to adhere to - while the truth is that he has pretty much been able to do whatever he feels like. The laws here are being taken more as guidelines and they do cross the boundaries when they need to. I think the focus is more on the intent of the law than the letter - its all in the interpretation.

Q, I just wish that the explanation you have provided regarding CO's methodical madness holds true. Abandonment of a big chunk of green cards may trigger larger VB movements and can help many people like me who are stuck in this backlog and may remain stuck for next 5-6 years. (My PD is 05/20/11 so obviously I wouldn't mind regular big movements)

Sadly, there is no way to predict what is going on in CO's mind unless one is a Leonardo DiCaprio of Inception. And as qblogfan frequently says, CO does exactly opposite of what everyone is expecting. So I am not getting very optimistic but your logic behind this large scale EB2IC approval so early in the year is very palatable and I again hope your are right. :o

[qblogfan]

Yes, I would say that Mr.Co never followed the rules. He does whatever he wants!

Before FY 2007, he always allocated Spillovers to EB3, that's why Indian and Chinese EB2 got such long backlogs. If he understood the law, we shouldn't have the backlog in the first place! He operated the whole system for many years, but he didn't understand the law until 2007. What a joke!

I seriously doubt he understands the law clearly. He is lack of some basic trainings.


I think we give a lot more credit to CO's legislative constraints than they deserve. We think of all the laws that he HAS to adhere to - while the truth is that he has pretty much been able to do whatever he feels like. The laws here are being taken more as guidelines and they do cross the boundaries when they need to. I think the focus is more on the intent of the law than the letter - its all in the interpretation.

[qblogfan]

Today and yesterday I saw more than 20 EB2-C approvals (around 10 families).


I saw the following approvals on Trackit for 11/19/2011
EB2 May 01 2007 TSC(India)
EB3 Nov 22 2005 TSC(Germany)
EB2 FEB 20 2011 NSC(Canada)
EB2 APR 29 2007 NSC(India)
EB2 JUL 11 2007 NSC(India)
EB2 APR 13 2007 NSC(India)
Eb2 JUL 13 2007 NSC(India)
EB2 FEB 22 2007 NSC(India)

Hope there will be a huge movement in Next VB

[qblogfan]

It can't be from FY 2010, it can't be from FB, it can't be from Quarterly SO, it can't be from 2800 annual quota,

it must be from Mr.CO's pocket, he saved some chocolates for us.............


Also the reduction in demand data was more from India than from China.

I agree, no one has any reasonable explanation as to what's going on. Currently only reasoning which seems to fit the bill is cleanup of inventory for "dead" 485s.

1. Cannot be FY 2011 numbers, as numbers ran out on Sep 15th and reason cited was due to sudden demand shown by USCIS in august, which we know was for pending EB1 and EB2ROW
2. Cannot be quarterly SO, as that happens after end of quarter
3. Very difficult to say it is entire EB2I/C quota because then to stay within the 27% limit rule would be difficult.
4. Very difficult to say it's FB SO from last year, as all FB categories are not current, leave alone notion of at least one being current.

[suninphx]

It can't be from FY 2010, it can't be from FB, it can't be from Quarterly SO, it can't be from 2800 annual quota,

it must be from Mr.CO's pocket, he saved some chocolates for us.............

LOL

As anything is possible I would not say "numbers CAN NOT be from XZYZ" even if its technically correct and per the laws (known to us). :)

[immi2910]

Leo

I don't really have hard data. But looking at economy and situation around, I find it very hard to think that 100% of whoever applied in 2007 was able to retain their jobs or otherwise get another jobs in case lost the first one.

And then there are people ( I know quite a few first hand) who dont value all this GC struggle that much. Typically these people have their home bases in Mumbai Delhi Blore etc where there are tons of opportunities.

But again ... this is so subjective discussion ... one can argue eitherway. I wish there is a way to predict how many abandoned their GC process.

I would like to point out that if they had I-140 approved then even if they lost their job went back to India and came back again in 2010 or 2011 then they will retain their old PD. I do not think there are too many people who would have left.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Guys, do we have any latest predictions for the next VB ?

[TeddyKoochu]

Guys, do we have any latest predictions for the next VB ?

I will stick with my old prediction, for the next bulletin the PD should 01-JAN-2008 everyone in 2007 should get their chance for filing their 485. On another note the approvals trend is really impressive. Looks like the entire cap for I/C i.e. 2800 will be consumed this month itself. If everyone (Preadjudicated) before 15th Jul 2007 gets approved then the demand data was actually true.

[qesehmk]

Guys, do we have any latest predictions for the next VB ?
EB2D I can't make such a short term prediction. Simply am not intelligent enough to do that. There are too many unknowns. But I will stick to what I have always maintained.

By Mar 2012, EB2IC will move to at least Jan 2008. If it moves beyond Apr 2008, it will retrogress to Apr 2008. In 2012 people with PDs upto Apr 2008 have some chance to get GC. Anybody beyond Apr 2008 will probably have to wait 2013 or more.


But unconsciously in the past 10 years we have globalized....to an extent we are globizens now....we may live in one place for small periods at a time but mentally we corelate with other places too. Not sure if this makes any sense to anyone of you......
...

So with your kids invest in three languages, English,Spanish and Mandarin.:p

So much agree that we are globizens now - unconsciously. On the second point - can we please add either Hindi or Sanskrit please to that list.

[immi2910]

I saw the following approvals on Trackit for 11/19/2011
EB2 May 01 2007 TSC(India)
EB3 Nov 22 2005 TSC(Germany)
EB2 FEB 20 2011 NSC(Canada)
EB2 APR 29 2007 NSC(India)
EB2 JUL 11 2007 NSC(India)
EB2 APR 13 2007 NSC(India)
Eb2 JUL 13 2007 NSC(India)
EB2 FEB 22 2007 NSC(India)

Hope there will be a huge movement in Next VB

TrackIt has a string of approvals for EB2I in Octorber. I am seeing 82 approvals in October with approximately 80% (64/82) of people who have priority date between 04/15 to 07/15 (i.e. people who became current in Oct).

Now the weirdest part is there is 1 case with a PD of 7/26 (username alien02k). This date will not be current until November but it seems I-485 has already been approved. Can anyone explain how is that even possible? What is happening at USCIS?

[tanu_75]

EB2D I can't make such a short term prediction. Simply am not intelligent enough to do that. There are too many unknowns. But I will stick to what I have always maintained.

By Mar 2012, EB2IC will move to at least Jan 2008. If it moves beyond Apr 2008, it will retrogress to Apr 2008. In 2012 people with PDs upto Apr 2008 have some chance to get GC. Anybody beyond Apr 2008 will probably have to wait 2013 or more.


So much agree that we are globizens now - unconsciously. On the second point - can we please add either Hindi or Sanskrit please to that list.

Q, by Jan 2008, can you clarify if you mean Jan 1st 2008 or Jan 31st 2008. There a few thousand people hanging in the balance there including me. :)

[qesehmk]

tanu, I would tend to say 31st Jan rather than 1st Jan.


Q, by Jan 2008, can you clarify if you mean Jan 1st 2008 or Jan 31st 2008. There a few thousand people hanging in the balance there including me. :)

[nayekal]

Guys,
I am planning to go India after filing I485 Apps. I will be filing on Nov 1st and will go to India in second week of Jan for 2 months. Do I need to worry about any thing.

[Pdmar08]

For some reason this reminds me of the saying ...the elephant has gone..whats remains is the tail.
I think the general consensus on this forum is dates will surely move until jan 2008, this human being with a PD smack in the middle of march 08 is secretly hoping that the tail doesnt get stuck in the door.

BTW I have a visa interview in the Mumbai Consulate...i am hoping that its the last one too..in the last year i have renewed H1 3 times gone for stamping 2 times..i m constantly printing stuff and and making copies.


tanu, I would tend to say 31st Jan rather than 1st Jan.

[immitime]

USCIS reverses decision to send the approvals to petitioners.. Now on it will be send to Attorneys. I wonder no one convinces Mr.Mayrokas about EB-3 India wait period.. or is there special lobbying required for that??

http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/news/2011,1020-i797.pdf

[nishant2200]

Guys, after initial exchanges, we shall be moving Approvals related celebrations and information to:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?144-Approvals

as well as discussion about life in India, China etc. at:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?153-General-Discussion-About-India

General I-485 documentation needs discussion:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?218-I-485-Documentation-Discussion

[Eb2_Dec07]

Thanks Q for the insight. It's a wait and watch game now . For me it will be 5 yrs soon since last landing in home country so hoping for the best .

[QUOTE=qesehmk;11503]EB2D I can't make such a short term prediction. Simply am not intelligent enough to do that. There are too many unknowns. But I will stick to what I have always maintained.

By Mar 2012, EB2IC will move to at least Jan 2008. If it moves beyond Apr 2008, it will retrogress to Apr 2008. In 2012 people with PDs upto Apr 2008 have some chance to get GC. Anybody beyond Apr 2008 will probably have to wait 2013 or more.

[gc_usa]

Q, by Jan 2008, can you clarify if you mean Jan 1st 2008 or Jan 31st 2008. There a few thousand people hanging in the balance there including me. :)

USCIS had 8.5k till July 2007. For every month after that if you take 2.5k it will be 12.5 k so total till Dec will be 21k. EB2 IC regular quota will be used by porting. (Guess 1) .

DOS doesn't know yet what will be spill over and they don't do advance calculation like us. To not waste visa they must go over what was last year assigned around 30k. So till end of Feb 2008 they need to move if they need buffer then 2-3 more months. which will be till April - June 2008.

Dates are not moving for DEC though !!!

DOS has limit of 12k visas for first qtr for EB2 total and out of that 8,5 to 8.7k are assigned to EB2 IC rest will go to ROW and they will consume spillover from Q1. ( ROW will consume spillover ) and date will not move.....

In Jan new qtr so date will move again for EB2 IC and may be same thing will happen.

so far EB2 IC has used 3k extra and going forward it will only use 1-2k extra to make more move so total is < 6k which is EB5 spillover. If in case EB2 row and Eb1 doesnot spillover at all still DOS is safe by end of year.

[nishant2200]

gc_usa, I remember your analysis done for last VB, and went and collected it.

I think basically you are trying to say this time that if quarterly spillover happens you don't see dates moving, I think. I may be confused by exact numbers you are putting in.

let's see, no one really knows, we all are proposing theories and hopes. Last time DOS did go against your analysis pointed out, but not anyone's fault, no one can really know their minds, what games they want to play.


I was right about my theory how they were able to shift date in OCT after allocating all 5.6k visas to EB2 IC. DOS will have hard time to allocate spill over visas in Nov so date will remain same for Nov or can move little. In Dec they will use first Q1 spill over and able to move date till March 2008.

If date will not move in nov more than 1 months all people with PD < March 2008 should be ready for DEC. Chances are 95 % that happening in DEC.


DOS allocated all 5.6k visas on OCT , legally they can do it but they cannot assign more than 28.6 % for EB2 total in Q1, so DOS now has some 4-5k left visas and they cannot assign any or all of those to EB2 IC otherwise EB2 will get cutoff date for Dec month.

So DOS will wait for DEC month or Jan ( I don't know if they can assign in last month of qtr or first month of next qtr ) to get some spill over from EB5 and EB1 to satisfy remaining 3k demand. It will be up to DOS to go where ever they want to go. They might have got I 140 data from USCIS or they can go based on past demand data they have and move forward.

Since we know that each month have average 1.5-2.5 k demand for EB2 I/C for 2006,2007 they will go with 2k per month and move at least 10-12 month from July 2007. Even I think if single instance of NVC receipt for Sep 2008 case was right then date will go up to Sep 2008.


They have assigned 5.6k quota to EB2 IC. they can do legally but can't go more than 28.6 % of total EB2 in Q1. so Nov will hold them back marching forward. Either DEC or JAN (depend where they can allocate Qtr spillover visas , either in last month or first month of next qtr ) they will make a one shot final big move. I predict it will go all the way up to June - Sep 2008 then.


Thanks Champu for confirming.

I am much more confident now. We heard from some site other day , one of top lawyer also mentioned same, I got news from other resource too that date are not moving much in Nov. In DEC and JAN it will. DEC is 6th month for people who got NVC fee notices up to Jan - Mar 2008. Chances are almost 100% for Jan - March 2008 for DEC unless EB1 demand spike up and DOS can allocate only 2k spillover from EB5. They need at least 1.5k from EB1 after Q1 spillover.


USCIS had 8.5k till July 2007. For every month after that if you take 2.5k it will be 12.5 k so total till Dec will be 21k. EB2 IC regular quota will be used by porting. (Guess 1) .

DOS doesn't know yet what will be spill over and they don't do advance calculation like us. To not waste visa they must go over what was last year assigned around 30k. So till end of Feb 2008 they need to move if they need buffer then 2-3 more months. which will be till April - June 2008.

Dates are not moving for DEC though !!!

DOS has limit of 12k visas for first qtr for EB2 total and out of that 8,5 to 8.7k are assigned to EB2 IC rest will go to ROW and they will consume spillover from Q1. ( ROW will consume spillover ) and date will not move.....

In Jan new qtr so date will move again for EB2 IC and may be same thing will happen.

so far EB2 IC has used 3k extra and going forward it will only use 1-2k extra to make more move so total is < 6k which is EB5 spillover. If in case EB2 row and Eb1 doesnot spillover at all still DOS is safe by end of year.

[president99]

Hi, I am new to this forum and seeing the posts i find it very informative, i have a question on spillovers....when a quarterly SO happens, does the CO just move the dates or do "actual visas" get issued? With my prio date of 10/22/07, can i get a GC in hand in 6 months or should i expect it in Oct 2012 Thanks.

[pch053]

You should get it in 6 months time and I don't think you have to wait for Oct'12. With that being said, the quarterly spillover is (probably) happening only this year; in the past few years all the spillover visas were allocated during the year end (May - Sep, depending on the year). But, in any case, you can expect your approval by 2nd quarter of 2012.

[nishant2200]

Hi, I am new to this forum and seeing the posts i find it very informative, i have a question on spillovers....when a quarterly SO happens, does the CO just move the dates or do "actual visas" get issued? With my prio date of 10/22/07, can i get a GC in hand in 6 months or should i expect it in Oct 2012 Thanks.

president99, only reason people are contemplating about quarterly spillover is because the last bulletin said movement each month may not be the norm.

I personally am highly doubtful about quarterly spillover.

I think mid Q3 - Q4 FY 2012 (may 2012 to sep 2012) would be the time I would expect you to get the GC.

[jkrocks]

If people in July PD are gettng GC's it means..all is well with CO..Personally DEC bulletin should be a "Happy Bulletiin" as its Thanksgiving/Christmas time.....I think CO will suprise everyone..most people are saying "Jan 2008" some people are saying "March 2008" ..but i think CO will suprise all of us..by moving dates by 7-8 months...and since most of the holiday season lot of people want to take it easy ..coming Jan /Feb 2012 u will not see any movement..and It will retrogress in March/April/May back to May 2008..and again dates will move in July/Aug/Sep. This is just a guess!:-)

[veni001]

I don't have H1 B visa stamp. I will book my tickets now, but will postpone my trip in the last minute, if I don't receive my AP. I am actually concerned with 485 apps processing during my stay out of US. Do I need to come back to answer any RFE's if any or do we need to be present in US for any thing else. I am planning to go for at least 2 months (1 month vacations + 1 month work from home).

nayekal,
If you have attorney representing your case, then you don't need to be in US to respond to RFE, if any.

Having said that, since you don't have valid H1 Visa stamp i wouldn't recommend travel outside US until you receive AP.

[nishant2200]

If people in July PD are gettng GC's it means..all is well with CO..Personally DEC bulletin should be a "Happy Bulletiin" as its Thanksgiving/Christmas time.....I think CO will suprise everyone..most people are saying "Jan 2008" some people are saying "March 2008" ..but i think CO will suprise all of us..by moving dates by 7-8 months...and since most of the holiday season lot of people want to take it easy ..coming Jan /Feb 2012 u will not see any movement..and It will retrogress in March/April/May back to May 2008..and again dates will move in July/Aug/Sep. This is just a guess!:-)

who knows man, since there is no concrete data or past trend to say immediate future, one cannot completely throw away your thought.

My best friend says: mango dilse milega zaroor (ask for it with your heart and you will get it)

so maybe we can all keep repeating this slogan.

BTW, if you see latest murthy bulletin, it talks about something I would call EB2-EB2 porting for people who abandoned ship and now wants to get back to original, murthy talking about it means must be significant number of such people, and looks like at least just in few months immediate future, it may reduce a tiny bit of incoming applications.

[meetasn]

Here are approvals from Trackitt on 11/20/2011
EB2 18 MAR 2007 TSC India
EB2 21 Dec 2010 TSC Iran
EB2 01 NOV 2006 NSC India
EB2 16 APR 2007 NSC India
EB2 12 JUN 2007 NSC India
EB2 08 Jun 2007 NSC India
EB2 01 MAY 2007 NSC India
EB2 13 JUL 2007 NSC India
EB2 11 MAY 2007 TSC India
EB2 03 MAY 2007 TSC India

It seems Like backlogs before 15 July 2007 are getting cleared

[suninphx]

Here are approvals from Trackitt on 11/20/2011
EB2 18 MAR 2007 TSC India
EB2 21 Dec 2010 TSC Iran
EB2 01 NOV 2006 NSC India
EB2 16 APR 2007 NSC India
EB2 12 JUN 2007 NSC India
EB2 08 Jun 2007 NSC India
EB2 01 MAY 2007 NSC India
EB2 13 JUL 2007 NSC India
EB2 11 MAY 2007 TSC India
EB2 03 MAY 2007 TSC India

It seems Like backlogs before 15 July 2007 are getting cleared

How is porting trend holding up? I remember it was at high rate for initial days. Not sure whats number now. (If some one has it already please share if not I will look it up myself)

[pch053]

There are still few porting cases that are getting approved but from the trackitt approvals this week, I will say that a significant # of approvals now are for cases with PD between mid-April to mid-July'07.

[suninphx]

There are still few porting cases that are getting approved but from the trackitt approvals this week, I will say that a significant # of approvals now are for cases with PD between mid-April to mid-July'07.

Ok thanks pch053. So probably one of assumptios that porting is not that significant factor (yet) is still holding up.

[sandeep11]

As Teddy mentioned in one of his recent posts if all or most of them before 7/15/2007 get approved then the demand data published stands to be right. I am hoping that the dates would move this VB also. I will stick to Teddy's projection of 1/1/2008. It makes sense for DOS to get all inventory for 2007 since it being most dense and accomodate 1st quarter of 2008 based on the demand.




Here are approvals from Trackitt on 11/20/2011
EB2 18 MAR 2007 TSC India
EB2 21 Dec 2010 TSC Iran
EB2 01 NOV 2006 NSC India
EB2 16 APR 2007 NSC India
EB2 12 JUN 2007 NSC India
EB2 08 Jun 2007 NSC India
EB2 01 MAY 2007 NSC India
EB2 13 JUL 2007 NSC India
EB2 11 MAY 2007 TSC India
EB2 03 MAY 2007 TSC India

It seems Like backlogs before 15 July 2007 are getting cleared

[immi2910]

There are still few porting cases that are getting approved but from the trackitt approvals this week, I will say that a significant # of approvals now are for cases with PD between mid-April to mid-July'07.

Yes, I had done an analysis yesterday (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=11512#post11512). Analysis based on today's data is:

TrackIt has a string of approvals for EB2I in Octorber. I am seeing 98 approvals in October with approximately 75% (73/98) of people who have priority date between 04/15 to 07/15 (i.e. people who became current in Oct).

Now the weirdest part is there is 1 case with a PD of 7/26 (username alien02k). This date will not be current until November but it seems I-485 has already been approved. Can anyone explain how is that even possible? What is happening at USCIS?

[nishant2200]

immi2910, are you looking at his country of birth or citizenship. Country of birth is what counts as chargability, either yours, or you can use your spouse's country of birth if its beneficial. So it maybe possible that:
- the guy is born in some other country
- or the guy's spouse is born in some other country (which won't be seen in trackitt, I dont think they have a country of chargeability column, or do they? I think they used to have only citizen and birth columns)

edit: I see that they do have country of chargeability column and citizen column, not birth, so maybe he has put the column value wrong.


Yes, I had done an analysis yesterday (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=11512#post11512). Analysis based on today's data is:

TrackIt has a string of approvals for EB2I in Octorber. I am seeing 98 approvals in October with approximately 75% (73/98) of people who have priority date between 04/15 to 07/15 (i.e. people who became current in Oct).

Now the weirdest part is there is 1 case with a PD of 7/26 (username alien02k). This date will not be current until November but it seems I-485 has already been approved. Can anyone explain how is that even possible? What is happening at USCIS?

[suninphx]

Yes, I had done an analysis yesterday (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=11512#post11512). Analysis based on today's data is:

TrackIt has a string of approvals for EB2I in Octorber. I am seeing 98 approvals in October with approximately 75% (73/98) of people who have priority date between 04/15 to 07/15 (i.e. people who became current in Oct).

Now the weirdest part is there is 1 case with a PD of 7/26 (username alien02k). This date will not be current until November but it seems I-485 has already been approved. Can anyone explain how is that even possible? What is happening at USCIS?

That person might have entered a wrong date.

[nishant2200]

As Teddy mentioned in one of his recent posts if all or most of them before 7/15/2007 get approved then the demand data published stands to be right. I am hoping that the dates would move this VB also. I will stick to Teddy's projection of 1/1/2008. It makes sense for DOS to get all inventory for 2007 since it being most dense and accomodate 1st quarter of 2008 based on the demand.

Sandeep, if the demand data is indeed correct, and they are honoring the movement with entire allocation in one shot, it seems to me:
- They have taken some special permission from some power to circumvent the law about percent allocation limit in the first three quarters, or someone may enlighten me about how this can be still accomodated without any legal problem
- They want to avoid Porting which is a random unpredicatable phenomena from screwing up their calculations for the FY, and hence use the entire quota right at the start
- Once the Inventory build up is done, the dates would have to be made U or unavailable, as otherwise how would they honor the porters, since they already used the entire normal quota, and numbers would only come from spillover when it's applied

[immi2910]

That person might have entered a wrong date.

If you look at comments (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigration-trackers/discuss/i485-eb/12259) section someone did ask for the correct PD and the person did not give one.

However, I agree he probably has the date wrong. I just find it difficult to understand how someone can mess up PD, the most important date in the whole process :).

[suninphx]

Sandeep, if the demand data is indeed correct, and they are honoring the movement with entire allocation in one shot, it seems to me:
- They have taken some special permission from some power to circumvent the law about percent allocation limit in the first three quarters, or someone may enlighten me about how this can be still accomodated without any legal problem
- They want to avoid Porting which is a random unpredicatable phenomena from screwing up their calculations for the FY, and hence use the entire quota right at the start
- Once the Inventory build up is done, the dates would have to be made U or unavailable, as otherwise how would they honor the porters, since they already used the entire normal quota, and numbers would only come from spillover when it's applied

Ok how about adding this one-
- they using numbers from previous FY with some 'special permission' :)

[immi2910]

Ok how about adding this one-
- they using numbers from previous FY with some 'special permission' :)

But they announced in Sept that all numbers have been used. Did you mean visa recapture?

[sandeep11]

Nishant-

They have twisted their own regulations many times before, seldom did they come up with explanation. I can't think of any other reason as to where they are getting the numbers from inspite of sending a URGENT memo on 9/15 or 9/16 that this years worth of numbers are done. The only other worst case scenario is they are anticipating Qtryly SO and allocating those. Either way they are in voilation.

With the porters, (though they can't be neglected completely) maybe the number is too small for them that they would give them a number along with the others when available from SO. Did they follow FIFO based on PD anytime :).

I don't think they would ever make the dates U for EB2I but they would retrogress and stay put at a particular date once the pipeline is built. If the SO is sufficient to accomodate everyone in pipeline, (poters may come into this demand also) no numbers wasted, all is well, if they are in excess push them to the next year.




Sandeep, if the demand data is indeed correct, and they are honoring the movement with entire allocation in one shot, it seems to me:
- They have taken some special permission from some power to circumvent the law about percent allocation limit in the first three quarters, or someone may enlighten me about how this can be still accomodated without any legal problem
- They want to avoid Porting which is a random unpredicatable phenomena from screwing up their calculations for the FY, and hence use the
entire quota right at the start
- Once the Inventory build up is done, the dates would have to be made U or unavailable, as otherwise how would they honor the porters, since they already used the entire normal quota, and numbers would only come from spillover when it's applied

[nishant2200]

Yes, conspiracy theories!

It's a mystery. And I am pretty sure since it worked to our advantage so far, no one even in the NIU would have dared to bother to ask CO about it, which is totally fine and dandy!


Ok how about adding this one-
- they using numbers from previous FY with some 'special permission' :)


But they announced in Sept that all numbers have been used. Did you mean visa recapture?

[suninphx]

But they announced in Sept that all numbers have been used. Did you mean visa recapture?

you forgot 'special permission' part of my quote! :)

[gc_usa]

gc_usa, I remember your analysis done for last VB, and went and collected it.

I think basically you are trying to say this time that if quarterly spillover happens you don't see dates moving, I think. I may be confused by exact numbers you are putting in.

let's see, no one really knows, we all are proposing theories and hopes. Last time DOS did go against your analysis pointed out, but not anyone's fault, no one can really know their minds, what games they want to play.

If you notice most of my post says they have assigned 5.6k to EB2 IC. and people are getting approval so that is fact now.

When I say date will not move next month because I think there will be at least 3.5k demand from ROW in first qtr. and EB2 iC has used first qtr's spillover from EB5. Date can move only if EB1 demand is low and it can spill visas & EB2 row demand is < 3.5k + ( Spillover from EB1 )

if that the case then for every 100 spillover visas date will move roughly 1 month.

It does not mean if 5k excess means 50 months movement. Movement will be only up to where CO wants to go in 2008. If visas are less than 200 I also believe that CO can hold movement and move more and one last big movement next month.

[vedu]

The USCIS dashboard is updated...sharp decline in pending I-140 numbers in August, 11.

[veni001]

The USCIS dashboard is updated...sharp decline in pending I-140 numbers in August, 11.

vedu,
Thank you

10,424 i-140 completions in August, no wonder USCIS found sudden increase in demand for September. Only 3K decline in pending i-140's compared to July'11.

[leo4ever]

vedu,
Thank you

10,424 i-140 completions in August, no wonder USCIS found sudden increase in demand for September.

Veni,

What exactly is this i140 completion data? Are these people who applied for140 or they have anapproved 140? Like for ex ihave140 approved and wheni file for 485 does that number decrease? Sorry might be a basic questions.

[veni001]

Veni,

What exactly Isis this i140 data. Aretgese people who appliedfor140 and already have an approval? Like for ex ihave140 approvedandwheni file for 485 does that number decrease? Sorry might be a basic questions.

Leo,
EB1-2-3 Primary applicants (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-%28From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics%29) require i-140 approval. Pending i-140's are from EB1 and EB2-3 applicants with PERM approval.

i-140 completions include both approvals and denials.

[Gclongwait]

I still cannot understand / reconcile the numbers, if the GCs being allocated from Oct-3rd are from this year's quota, how come the cut-off date for EB2-C not move ahead of EB2-I's cut-off date? Someone had asked this question earlier in the forum but it did not seem to get much traction. Can anyone please provide some insight?

I had asked this in last years thread. I still don't know from where the numbers are coming but I stand by my theory that this is not 2012 regular quota since eb2c would have moved much further than India if this was regular quota. It would be plain illegal otherwise.

I never made predictions before but here goes.....
My prediction is anyone till April 2008 stands a 75% chance of a gc this year. I believe in trends and over the last few years for eb2, 5 years is like a max for getting gc. It takes 5 years only if you miss the cutoff date by like a month or so, of course assuming your case doesn't get stuck somewhere. Most people are getting it in 4 to 4.5 years. I think anyone till July 2008 should be able to file for ead since that's where the fee receipts are known to hmave been sent.

Anyways hope for the best.

[veni001]

I had asked this in last years thread. I still don't know from where the numbers are coming but I stand by my theory that this is not 2012 regular quota since eb2c would have moved much further than India if this was regular quota. It would be plain illegal otherwise.

I never made predictions before but here goes.....
My prediction is anyone till April 2008 stands a 75% chance of a gc this year. I believe in trends and over the last few years for eb2, 5 years is like a max for getting gc. It takes 5 years only if you miss the cutoff date by like a month or so, of course assuming your case doesn't get stuck somewhere. Most people are getting it in 4 to 4.5 years. I think anyone till July 2008 should be able to file for ead since that's where the fee receipts are known to hmave been sent.

Anyways hope for the best.

Gclongwait,
We don't know yet!

But, moving dates does not always mean every one before that Cut off date will get GC.

[Monica12]

Posted by CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/10/visa-bulletin-december-2011.html
EB2-India and EB2-China could see 3-6 months in coming bulletins. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Movement is solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake new demand for FY 2012. At this time, total movement as huge as 3-6 months in one or two steps in coming month(s) cannot be discarded before we may see retrogression. In next few bulletins, dates can move anywhere from Jan 2008 – June 2008. Although DOS warned about stall, they may (should) not stall current movement as such movement may not consume visas until these applications will become documentarily qualified.

[nishant2200]

Monica, thank you. I agree with him, it would be a wasted opportunity if CO dont move dates.


Posted by CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/10/visa-bulletin-december-2011.html
EB2-India and EB2-China could see 3-6 months in coming bulletins. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Movement is solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake new demand for FY 2012. At this time, total movement as huge as 3-6 months in one or two steps in coming month(s) cannot be discarded before we may see retrogression. In next few bulletins, dates can move anywhere from Jan 2008 – June 2008. Although DOS warned about stall, they may (should) not stall current movement as such movement may not consume visas until these applications will become documentarily qualified.

[imdeng]

Trends are a result of the underlying data - they are the symptom and not the cause. Trends are likely to change as the underlying data changes. For example - PD rushed through 2005 because that was a weak year for 485 demand, it is taking a lot of time to run through 2007 because it has a heavy demand. Once we cross 2007 and early 2008, we will see PD advance more rapidly because late 2008 and especially 2009 is quite weak in demand. Someone with early 2010 PD (before the 2010 PERM rush started) might be able to break the 4 year mark, especially if the economy continues to be weak and EB1, EB2ROW and EB5 continue to provide large SO.



My prediction is anyone till April 2008 stands a 75% chance of a gc this year. I believe in trends and over the last few years for eb2, 5 years is like a max for getting gc. It takes 5 years only if you miss the cutoff date by like a month or so, of course assuming your case doesn't get stuck somewhere. Most people are getting it in 4 to 4.5 years. I think anyone till July 2008 should be able to file for ead since that's where the fee receipts are known to hmave been sent.

[imdeng]

I don't think it makes much difference in larger scheme of things. USCIS is approving cases in 2-3 months, so as long as CO avoids the two extreme cases of making PD current and wasting visa numbers, movement right now really is not of much importance - and I think the probability of the two extreme events happening is quite low. Of course, it makes a lot of difference to people in the margin - but even for them the impact is at most of a couple months.

Monica, thank you. I agree with him, it would be a wasted opportunity if CO dont move dates.

[nishant2200]

The late he makes movement, better handle on demand that can be as well as usage trend of E1, E2ROW could catch up. People in 2008 have better chance of getting in if movements are early. Let's hope at least for 2008 folks, CO doesn't waste this chance.

A consistent attempt to dent the 140 backlog, E5 encouragement and E1C PP might hit us.


I don't think it makes much difference in larger scheme of things. USCIS is approving cases in 2-3 months, so as long as CO avoids the two extreme cases of making PD current and wasting visa numbers, movement right now really is not of much importance - and I think the probability of the two extreme events happening is quite low. Of course, it makes a lot of difference to people in the margin - but even for them the impact is at most of a couple months.

[vizcard]

I had asked this in last years thread. I still don't know from where the numbers are coming but I stand by my theory that this is not 2012 regular quota since eb2c would have moved much further than India if this was regular quota. It would be plain illegal otherwise.

I never made predictions before but here goes.....
My prediction is anyone till April 2008 stands a 75% chance of a gc this year. I believe in trends and over the last few years for eb2, 5 years is like a max for getting gc. It takes 5 years only if you miss the cutoff date by like a month or so, of course assuming your case doesn't get stuck somewhere. Most people are getting it in 4 to 4.5 years. I think anyone till July 2008 should be able to file for ead since that's where the fee receipts are known to hmave been sent.

Anyways hope for the best.

Is it a fact that fee receipts thru July 2008 have been sent? Where can one check this?

[nishant2200]

Fee receipts: On the advocacy website, **, a user claims to have June 2008 and NVC receipt. I think username begins with vick.

On Ron's forum, he has mentioned having fee receipts at least till January 2008. Read Ron's reply at http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/visa-dates-movement-and-some-unaswered-questions-and-future-15096/

Ron Gotcher is reputed attorney and I would hence trust Jan 2008 NVC receipt to be 100% correct.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

We have made the october donations. If interested, please check at, http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=9785#post9785

Also please vote for next months charities. The poll is open now.

Thanks for your vote!

[tanu_75]

I would be cautious about using the NVC receipts as a correlator for VB movement. We've seen NVC receipts for Jan 2008 PD's filtering through early this year, I believe as early as Mar/Apr. There are a few interesting indicators though :
1. What we've heard from the horse's mouth, in the Nov VB where they specifically say that "significant movement" is expected in the future, although it may not be made on a monthly basis.
I would think that could mean that by the end of this year, i.e Oct 2012, PD's at least 6 months from the Nov PD (Oct 2007), should at least get a chance to file for 485. So Apr 30th 2008 could be possible in the next 6-9 months.
2. I think qbf had mentioned that CO wants (from email/talk response to mitbbs folks ) to keep EB2 GC within a limit of 4.5 years, so that would mean by Sep 2012, he would move to around Mar 2008.

So the year could end around Mar/Apr 2008 and if they decide to pull in a buffer, then maybe a few more months on top of it. As to when and how they'll move, I think the consensus is that somewhere within the next 2-3 months, dates will move to around Feb 1st 2008. And then probably around March 2012, they may make another short 2-3 month move and close it out there.

It's all up in the air though. What if EB1 or EB2 ROW demand picks up (-ve), porting produces more demand (-ve), July 2007 EB2CI PD demand is not high as Q pointed (+ve) etc. Too many unknowns right now, but , and I say this cautiously, there appears to be a little bit of clarity I think of how CO maybe approaching this.

[orangeca]

Fee receipts: On the advocacy website, **, a user claims to have June 2008 and NVC receipt. I think username begins with vick.

On Ron's forum, he has mentioned having fee receipts at least till January 2008. Read Ron's reply at http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/visa-dates-movement-and-some-unaswered-questions-and-future-15096/

Ron Gotcher is reputed attorney and I would hence trust Jan 2008 NVC receipt to be 100% correct.

Nishant bhai- My PD is Feb 1 08 and I got the NVC email few months ago. Also, colleague of mine had PD of late FEB and even he got the NVC email. Thought this will be some useful information for you gurus.

[nishant2200]

Nishant bhai- My PD is Feb 1 08 and I got the NVC email few months ago. Also, colleague of mine had PD of late FEB and even he got the NVC email. Thought this will be some useful information for you gurus.

This is really great, now we have feb 08 confirmation for sure. Friend if u dont mind can u tell us which exact month u got it. Thanks a lot.

Edit: I found it, u had posted on 5/24/2011 informing this earlier!

[orangeca]

This is really great, now we have feb 08 confirmation for sure. Friend if u dont mind can u tell us which exact month u got it. Thanks a lot.

Edit: I found it, u had posted on 5/24/2011 informing this earlier!

It was Monday, May 23, 2011 1:36 PM

[orangeca]

Nishant, man you are fast!!

[nishant2200]

Nishant, man you are fast!!

H1B mazdoori has taught me survival instincts and my foolhardiness in starting GC late has shown me the need for speed :D

I agree with Tanu (which btw is also a character from one of my favorite book series Fablehaven), that it does not necessarily mean exact corelation, but something will happen this FY. By putting the words not on a monthly basis, CO has really turned our world upside down with conundrums.

Thank u for putting date and even time. May the force be with you.

[qblogfan]

it's great information!

thanks for providing evidence! The latest credible one I heard is April 2008. One guy on ** website reported it in the summer.


Nishant bhai- My PD is Feb 1 08 and I got the NVC email few months ago. Also, colleague of mine had PD of late FEB and even he got the NVC email. Thought this will be some useful information for you gurus.

[nishant2200]

Trackitt gurus, how fares the EB1 and EB2ROW approval trend in October so far, anything alarming either way or comparison with last Oct.

[dec2007]

Hello Nishanth....
hope you get currnt next bulletin buddy..I'm also eagerly waiting for my date Dec 31, 2007. good luck..

[nishant2200]

Hello Nishanth....
hope you get currnt next bulletin buddy..I'm also eagerly waiting for my date Dec 31, 2007. good luck..

What a date! It means ur lawyer was working hard for u on new year eve and filed the PERM before he went off to party!

[grnwtg]

Wow, thats awesome date and hopefully you can get current in coming month or two.

Hello Nishanth....
hope you get currnt next bulletin buddy..I'm also eagerly waiting for my date Dec 31, 2007. good luck..

[grnwtg]

Wow thanks for your post. Late Feb, tells me to be optimistic for my date also :) ..

Nishant bhai- My PD is Feb 1 08 and I got the NVC email few months ago. Also, colleague of mine had PD of late FEB and even he got the NVC email. Thought this will be some useful information for you gurus.

[shivarajan]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7D3_eGaO5k&feature=related

:)

[dec2007]

What a date! It means ur lawyer was working hard for u on new year eve and filed the PERM before he went off to party!

I must agree that I had a great lawyer...he was pushing me to submit my paperwork..
the whole labor process took only 4-5 months...start to approval.

hope to see my date soon...

[red2green]

Some interesting Q&As from an ex 485- Adjudicator. Sorry if it is already posted & discussed here.

http://www.visajourney.com/content/adjudicator-q-and-a

[smuggymba]

Totally my bad! Sorry smugymba!

no problemo. Can you update the thread and post you views once HR3012 is passed. Thanks as always.

[nishant2200]

Some interesting Q&As from an ex 485- Adjudicator. Sorry if it is already posted & discussed here.

http://www.visajourney.com/content/adjudicator-q-and-a

Very very enjoyable reading, thank you. Two notes:

1. Don't like congressional inquiry.
2. Everything is paper file based.

[qesehmk]

I agree about the chances of it passing as slim to none. I was only responding to "What if"!



This post falls squarely in the "Predictions" category as opposed to "Calculations :D

the odds of HR3012 getting passed before the Presidential elections at the end of 2012 are slim to none (and slim is losing!)

[vizcard]

I agree about the chances of it passing as slim to none. I was only responding to "What if"!

I know Q. I know. :D I'm on the bubble for 2012 EAD so any "positive" news gets me perked up.

[gcseeker]

I just saw this article in the Hindu newspaper. I have known this for a very long time just based on personal and ancedotal experiences. Now we have it straight from the horse's mouth. US consulate in Chennai did an study of the applications it had received in 2008 and 2009 and documented the highest centres with documentation fraud.No wonder even genuine applicants are getting hit with an 221(g) if you get an appointment at the city mentioned in the article.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/the-india-cables/article1712443.ece

Both types of fraud was documented (immigrant and non immigrant) . :) I just hope they do an study for the EB1C category as well in the various cities and they will find a lot more.

[qblogfan]

I agree. The chance is too slim. It's all bluffing on ** website.


I agree about the chances of it passing as slim to none. I was only responding to "What if"!

[immi2910]

I just saw this article in the Hindu newspaper. I have known this for a very long time just based on personal and ancedotal experiences. Now we have it straight from the horse's mouth. US consulate in Chennai did an study of the applications it had received in 2008 and 2009 and documented the highest centres with documentation fraud.No wonder even genuine applicants are getting hit with an 221(g) if you get an appointment at the city mentioned in the article.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/the-india-cables/article1712443.ece

Both types of fraud was documented (immigrant and non immigrant) . :) I just hope they do an study for the EB1C category as well in the various cities and they will find a lot more.

I think it is important to keep in mind that the number of cases are minuscule 3083/756,000 or 0.41% of total Non Immigrant Visa applications. In addition not all are related to H1B. Therefore, I think this is not the real reason for all the 221(g). Also, in most cases the 221(g) is reaffirmed by USCIS. However, it just takes 3 to 4 months.

[nishant2200]

Hey Teddy and others, after the August 2011 update, the delta between what it was last year at this time, is now 25,160 minus 20,831 is just 4,329 compared to July 11 vs July 10 which was 10.5k which you pointed out earlier.

Now considering that this happened in August 2011, and was the reason for the surprise huge USCIS pointed out demand for EB1, EB2 ROW, we can say that the difference delta is just 4.3k instead of 10.5k for year to year compare. Once they release September 2011 dashboard data, maybe the 4.3k can come down even further comparing Sep 2011 vs Sep 2010, and hopefully the movement stoppage for Sep VB FY 2011 took care of this damage we may think, save maybe 2k (a number I am throwing out of the hat).

Do you think that the backlog is a bit of a less concern now, I am not saying it is totally gone, but maybe earlier it was 9 out of 10 on scale of messing us up, and now it is 5 out of 10.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hey Teddy and others, after the August 2011 update, the delta between what it was last year at this time, is now 25,160 minus 20,831 is just 4,329 compared to July 11 vs July 10 which was 10.5k which you pointed out earlier.

Now considering that this happened in August 2011, and was the reason for the surprise huge USCIS pointed out demand for EB1, EB2 ROW, we can say that the difference delta is just 4.3k instead of 10.5k for year to year compare. Once they release September 2011 dashboard data, maybe the 4.3k can come down even further comparing Sep 2011 vs Sep 2010, and hopefully the movement stoppage for Sep VB FY 2011 took care of this damage we may think, save maybe 2k (a number I am throwing out of the hat).
Do you think that the backlog is a bit of a less concern now, I am not saying it is totally gone, but maybe earlier it was 9 out of 10 on scale of messing us up, and now it is 5 out of 10.

Nishant thanks for this update. Aug 2011 saw an almost unprecedented number of I140 approvals. It was the May - Jun approval trend that hurt the Aug and Sep VB. Normally there would be a 2 month time lag in I140 hitting the I485 queue. The overall backlog is still at 25K level which is still 10K higher than last year. It will be interesting to see how USCIS intends to clear it. Clearing it out too fast and now itself will hurt the SOFAD for this year. The demand intake if it happens sooner something like next month will not be impacted even if I140 backlog is cleared out. I would say 5-10 is out of the bag as the backlog was at 35K now its 25K it has to come down to 15K. We probably have felt the impact of only 3-10. Let’s keep a watch on the dashboard and the approval trends for EB2 ROW and EB1.

The additional 4.3K delta might mean similar number of EB2 ROW + EB1 applications. Lets normalize this to 3K. So potentially if I140 backlog were to be brought to same levels as last year then SOFAD would diminish by as much as 10K. This would impact actual GC issuance more than the demand intake. Lets pray for all friends that their date becomes current in the next bulletin. Later will be more difficult.

[nishant2200]

Thank you Teddy. I was too afraid to say it myself, but I agree that 15k is the level the agencies might be comfortable with to show their books clean.

Watching approval trends for EB2ROW and EB1 correlated with the dashboard is the key as you said.


Nishant thanks for this update. Aug 2011 saw an almost unprecedented number of I140 approvals. It was the May - Jun approval trend that hurt the Aug and Sep VB. Normally there would be a 2 month time lag in I140 hitting the I485 queue. The overall backlog is still at 25K level which is still 10K higher than last year. It will be interesting to see how USCIS intends to clear it. Clearing it out too fast and now itself will hurt the SOFAD for this year. The demand intake if it happens sooner something like next month will not be impacted even if I140 backlog is cleared out. I would say 5-10 is out of the bag as the backlog was at 35K now its 25K it has to come down to 15K. We probably have felt the impact of only 3-10. Let’s keep a watch on the dashboard and the approval trends for EB2 ROW and EB1.

The additional 4.3K delta might mean similar number of EB2 ROW + EB1 applications. Lets normalize this to 3K. So potentially if I140 backlog were to be brought to same levels as last year then SOFAD would diminish by as much as 10K. This would impact actual GC issuance more than the demand intake. Lets pray for all friends that their date becomes current in the next bulletin. Later will be more difficult.

[soggadu]

guys and guru's... is it really important to file 485 on the first day itself? please let me know.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Thank you Teddy. I was too afraid to say it myself, but I agree that 15k is the level the agencies might be comfortable with to show their books clean.

Watching approval trends for EB2ROW and EB1 correlated with the dashboard is the key as you said.

Nishant/ Teddy , what does this mean to cut-off dates for receiving GCs for fiscal 2012. Now does this impact how much of swing CO will make forward to capture the demand . Earlier projections I believe were onto March/Apr 2008 . What's your gut feeling for the next vb ? How much of a significance will the next VB be for the coming months. Also are we able to correct the SOFAD to around 15K range . Gosh it doesn't sound very good .

[nishant2200]

Nishant/ Teddy , what does this mean to cut-off dates for receiving GCs for fiscal 2012. Now does this impact how much of swing CO will make forward to capture the demand . Earlier projections I believe were onto March/Apr 2008 . What's your gut feeling for the next vb ? How much of a significance will the next VB be for the coming months. Also are we able to correct the SOFAD to around 15K range . Gosh it doesn't sound very good .

Ok, here's my rough take on this.

FY 2011 SOFAD was 30k.

If we take worst case situation of 10k backlog reduction to get stockpile to 15k pending 140, and if we consider all other things remain same (SYA same year approvals for EB1, EB2ROW, incoming rate because of bad economy, scrutiny on H1, EB1 Kazarian, and so on), then let's take SOFAD reduced by 8k (assuming 2k denials for 140, 80% approval rate), hence 22k SOFAD.

Now let's think about encouraged EB5, and EB1C (multinational manager) PP (premium processing which may begin next year), so let's take 4k further SOFAD reduction.

This brings worst case SOFAD to be 18k.

How far can 18k SOFAD take you. that can be seen in Spec's table in facts and data, with your own porting estimate plugged in.

Now, I do think that CO will not go into about what can happen this FY 2012 because of what is USCIS's strategy in terms of 140 backlog reduction, or EB5 encouragement, or EB1C PP etc. What he will take into account is how much SOFAD happened in past trend, and looking at last year, and even year before that, it has to be 30k figure plus a buffer of some number as you can't assume 100% 485 approval rate, although I suspect it must be pretty close to it.

To get to 30k figure, again if you see Spec's table, dates have to reach April 2008 whereabouts. And for these to be meaningfully available for any SO in Q4 FY 2012, they need to be in 6 months earlier, and hence, Q's take that before March 2012, dates should move till around April 2008.

So this does prove why CO put he anticipates significant date movement, mind that, for him I think even 3 months more might be significant, so we can't think significant means a year.

My gut feeling is 1st January 2008 for next VB, I would have said with much more certainty if CO had not put the words : not on a monthly basis, I frankly have been very tormented by those words, they don't make sense.

If he follows F2A FB strategy he did last year, he has to move this next VB. In this last year, what he did was he initially moved in quantity of 3 months around, and in the last two VB, he moved 2 months a piece. This year for EB2 I/C, he has moved 3 months, 3.5 months, so what's next.

So I have understood why he mentioned he anticipates significant date movement ahead, but I don't understand why he said not on a monthly basis. I am not ready to believe CO will try quarterly spillover in this day and age where there is so much 140 backlog for EB1 and EB2ROW. In fact if you ask someone like Ron Gotcher, he does not see where we think quarterly spillover is also allowed as per law.

[TeddyKoochu]

Nishant/ Teddy , what does this mean to cut-off dates for receiving GCs for fiscal 2012. Now does this impact how much of swing CO will make forward to capture the demand . Earlier projections I believe were onto March/Apr 2008 . What's your gut feeling for the next vb ? How much of a significance will the next VB be for the coming months. Also are we able to correct the SOFAD to around 15K range . Gosh it doesn't sound very good .

If the demand capture happens sooner like next bulletin itself there will be minimal impact on that. However actual approvals will be far lower if the entire backlog were to be cleared. My projection has always been a little conservative than all others because of the I140 backlog itself. Last year was the Eb1 year in terms of SOFAD because the Kazarian memo slowed down I140 approvals but the applications never came down, however if they choose to clearing he I140backlog then most of the EB1 related SOFAD will disappear. This will move things towards the worst case scenario. Let’s keep a watch on this but too early to panic. Let’s wait to hear what Q, Veni & Spec have to say on this.

[dec2007]

Ok, here's my rough take on this.

FY 2011 SOFAD was 30k.

If we take worst case situation of 10k backlog reduction to get stockpile to 15k pending 140, and if we consider all other things remain same (SYA same year approvals for EB1, EB2ROW, incoming rate because of bad economy, scrutiny on H1, EB1 Kazarian, and so on), then let's take SOFAD reduced by 8k (assuming 2k denials for 140, 80% approval rate), hence 22k SOFAD.

Now let's think about encouraged EB5, and EB1C (multinational manager) PP (premium processing which may begin next year), so let's take 4k further SOFAD reduction.

This brings worst case SOFAD to be 18k.

How far can 18k SOFAD take you. that can be seen in Spec's table in facts and data, with your own porting estimate plugged in.

Now, I do think that CO will not go into about what can happen this FY 2012 because of what is USCIS's strategy in terms of 140 backlog reduction, or EB5 encouragement, or EB1C PP etc. What he will take into account is how much SOFAD happened in past trend, and looking at last year, and even year before that, it has to be 30k figure plus a buffer of some number as you can't assume 100% 485 approval rate, although I suspect it must be pretty close to it.

To get to 30k figure, again if you see Spec's table, dates have to reach April 2008 whereabouts. And for these to be meaningfully available for any SO in Q4 FY 2012, they need to be in 6 months earlier, and hence, Q's take that before March 2012, dates should move till around April 2008.

So this does prove why CO put he anticipates significant date movement, mind that, for him I think even 3 months more might be significant, so we can't think significant means a year.

My gut feeling is 1st January 2008 for next VB, I would have said with much more certainty if CO had not put the words : not on a monthly basis, I frankly have been very tormented by those words, they don't make sense.

If he follows F2A FB strategy he did last year, he has to move this next VB. In this last year, what he did was he initially moved in quantity of 3 months around, and in the last two VB, he moved 2 months a piece. This year for EB2 I/C, he has moved 3 months, 3.5 months, so what's next.

So I have understood why he mentioned he anticipates significant date movement ahead, but I don't understand why he said not on a monthly basis. I am not ready to believe CO will try quarterly spillover in this day and age where there is so much 140 backlog for EB1 and EB2ROW. In fact if you ask someone like Ron Gotcher, he does not see where we think quarterly spillover is also allowed as per law.

Nishanth Bhai..keep saying that magic date , Jan 1, 2008.

[nishant2200]

Nishanth Bhai..keep saying that magic date , Jan 1, 2008.

And believe me, I feel really sorry for anyone on the right side of this date and missing out. I know how it feels, I have been feeling that since last 3 weeks. It's not something you wish on an enemy also. If you talk about my wish or dream, I would pray for best case of mid 2008 huge BTM in one shot.

[Monica12]

guys and guru's... is it really important to file 485 on the first day itself? please let me know.
Teddy has put it very nicely. Trackitt approvals, atleast for NSC is showing that people with earlier receipt/notice dates are getting approvals first. There are a few exceptions but mostly I think they approving by ND. Also, some L2 officers have mentioned to people that cases are being approved by notice/receipt date. Obviously, no one knows for sure. My notice date was way behind but I still got approval earlier. Maybe it was because of the Congressional enquiry ?
But, it's very important to get everything in order and fill application properly even if you file few days later. Because otherwise a RFE will delay things anyways.

[sandeep11]

Nishant/Dec_2007,

I am in the same boat, while I really hope and wish that my friends beyond 2008 get to file their 485 I personally wanted ( i am being honest here) to get onboard this coming next VB. Being so close to getting Current and to wait for the next VB is a pain. I really wish your words of Mid 2008 and beyond (BTM) comes true.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Nishant/Dec_2007,

I am in the same boat, while I really hope and wish that my friends beyond 2008 get to file their 485 I personally wanted ( i am being honest here) to get onboard this coming next VB. Being so close to getting Current and to wait for the next VB is a pain. I really wish your words of Mid 2008 and beyond (BTM) comes true.

Sandeep, wats your PD ? I agree , ever since last VB came out , it has been a gut wrenching experience for me . Now that we are so close yet so far , it is really hanging in the balance. Everyday I literally scour through every page for any little info I could devour. I'm actually getting all my medicals scheduled ahead of next VB to just have everything in order to fly the paperwork to my attorney if it becomes current. Let's hope there is reprieve for many others . End of the day , all we can do is just hope for the best , but I must say these guys Q, Nishant , Teddy , Veni and all others are doing such a great job ,besides sharing their valuable insights they are really making our wait bearable.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Ok, here's my rough take on this.

FY 2011 SOFAD was 30k.

If we take worst case situation of 10k backlog reduction to get stockpile to 15k pending 140, and if we consider all other things remain same (SYA same year approvals for EB1, EB2ROW, incoming rate because of bad economy, scrutiny on H1, EB1 Kazarian, and so on), then let's take SOFAD reduced by 8k (assuming 2k denials for 140, 80% approval rate), hence 22k SOFAD.

Now let's think about encouraged EB5, and EB1C (multinational manager) PP (premium processing which may begin next year), so let's take 4k further SOFAD reduction.

This brings worst case SOFAD to be 18k.

How far can 18k SOFAD take you. that can be seen in Spec's table in facts and data, with your own porting estimate plugged in.

Now, I do think that CO will not go into about what can happen this FY 2012 because of what is USCIS's strategy in terms of 140 backlog reduction, or EB5 encouragement, or EB1C PP etc. What he will take into account is how much SOFAD happened in past trend, and looking at last year, and even year before that, it has to be 30k figure plus a buffer of some number as you can't assume 100% 485 approval rate, although I suspect it must be pretty close to it.

To get to 30k figure, again if you see Spec's table, dates have to reach April 2008 whereabouts. And for these to be meaningfully available for any SO in Q4 FY 2012, they need to be in 6 months earlier, and hence, Q's take that before March 2012, dates should move till around April 2008.

So this does prove why CO put he anticipates significant date movement, mind that, for him I think even 3 months more might be significant, so we can't think significant means a year.

My gut feeling is 1st January 2008 for next VB, I would have said with much more certainty if CO had not put the words : not on a monthly basis, I frankly have been very tormented by those words, they don't make sense.

If he follows F2A FB strategy he did last year, he has to move this next VB. In this last year, what he did was he initially moved in quantity of 3 months around, and in the last two VB, he moved 2 months a piece. This year for EB2 I/C, he has moved 3 months, 3.5 months, so what's next.

So I have understood why he mentioned he anticipates significant date movement ahead, but I don't understand why he said not on a monthly basis. I am not ready to believe CO will try quarterly spillover in this day and age where there is so much 140 backlog for EB1 and EB2ROW. In fact if you ask someone like Ron Gotcher, he does not see where we think quarterly spillover is also allowed as per law.

Thanks for being so explicit Nishant.

[Eb2_Dec07]

If the demand capture happens sooner like next bulletin itself there will be minimal impact on that. However actual approvals will be far lower if the entire backlog were to be cleared. My projection has always been a little conservative than all others because of the I140 backlog itself. Last year was the Eb1 year in terms of SOFAD because the Kazarian memo slowed down I140 approvals but the applications never came down, however if they choose to clearing he I140backlog then most of the EB1 related SOFAD will disappear. This will move things towards the worst case scenario. Let’s keep a watch on this but too early to panic. Let’s wait to hear what Q, Veni & Spec have to say on this.

Thanks Teddy .

[sandeep11]

EB2_Dec2007-

My PD is Dec 4 2007.

As you said Q, Nishant , Teddy , Veni, Spector have all done a very good job. You are right in saying that their expertise has helped us take things in the right way. I truly wish good luck to everyone out there. Good Luck to you.











Sandeep, wats your PD ? I agree , ever since last VB came out , it has been a gut wrenching experience for me . Now that we are so close yet so far , it is really hanging in the balance. Everyday I literally scour through every page for any little info I could devour. I'm actually getting all my medicals scheduled ahead of next VB to just have everything in order to fly the paperwork to my attorney if it becomes current. Let's hope there is reprieve for many others . End of the day , all we can do is just hope for the best , but I must say these guys Q, Nishant , Teddy , Veni and all others are doing such a great job ,besides sharing their valuable insights they are really making our wait bearable.

[Eb2_Dec07]

EB2_Dec2007-

My PD is Dec 4 2007.

As you said Q, Nishant , Teddy , Veni, Spector have all done a very good job. You are right in saying that their expertise has helped us take things in the right way. I truly wish good luck to everyone out there. Good Luck to you.

Mine is Dec 4th too. Nice coincidence. Good luck to both of us . Let's see next VB

[natvyas]

Have we figured out the source of the visa numbers for the approvals received in Oct?
It's not possible for CO to use IC's yearly allocation in first month.

Cheers
Nat

[qblogfan]

"If he follows F2A FB strategy he did last year, he has to move this next VB. In this last year, what he did was he initially moved in quantity of 3 months around, and in the last two VB, he moved 2 months a piece. This year for EB2 I/C, he has moved 3 months, 3.5 months, so what's next. "

I also compared F2A FB with EB2, but I noticed that F2A advanced significantly in the summer of 2010. In the Fall of 2011, F2A advanced in smaller steps. So it's in a different situation compared to EB2.

I hope CO can advance EB2 in bigger steps.

I saw many EB2-C got their GC only several days after they got EAD/AP. What's the point of applying EAD/AP? It is not useful for the folks with post-2007.07 PD.

If he can advance EB2 in bigger steps, then EAD/AP will be useful for the folks after 2007.07. He should do that! What's the point of EAD/AP?

In my opinion, he should let all the folks before 2009.12 apply for EAD/AP. If he does not do that, that means he is cold blooded and has no mercy on EB2 C/I.


Ok, here's my rough take on this.

FY 2011 SOFAD was 30k.

If we take worst case situation of 10k backlog reduction to get stockpile to 15k pending 140, and if we consider all other things remain same (SYA same year approvals for EB1, EB2ROW, incoming rate because of bad economy, scrutiny on H1, EB1 Kazarian, and so on), then let's take SOFAD reduced by 8k (assuming 2k denials for 140, 80% approval rate), hence 22k SOFAD.

Now let's think about encouraged EB5, and EB1C (multinational manager) PP (premium processing which may begin next year), so let's take 4k further SOFAD reduction.

This brings worst case SOFAD to be 18k.

How far can 18k SOFAD take you. that can be seen in Spec's table in facts and data, with your own porting estimate plugged in.

Now, I do think that CO will not go into about what can happen this FY 2012 because of what is USCIS's strategy in terms of 140 backlog reduction, or EB5 encouragement, or EB1C PP etc. What he will take into account is how much SOFAD happened in past trend, and looking at last year, and even year before that, it has to be 30k figure plus a buffer of some number as you can't assume 100% 485 approval rate, although I suspect it must be pretty close to it.

To get to 30k figure, again if you see Spec's table, dates have to reach April 2008 whereabouts. And for these to be meaningfully available for any SO in Q4 FY 2012, they need to be in 6 months earlier, and hence, Q's take that before March 2012, dates should move till around April 2008.

So this does prove why CO put he anticipates significant date movement, mind that, for him I think even 3 months more might be significant, so we can't think significant means a year.

My gut feeling is 1st January 2008 for next VB, I would have said with much more certainty if CO had not put the words : not on a monthly basis, I frankly have been very tormented by those words, they don't make sense.

If he follows F2A FB strategy he did last year, he has to move this next VB. In this last year, what he did was he initially moved in quantity of 3 months around, and in the last two VB, he moved 2 months a piece. This year for EB2 I/C, he has moved 3 months, 3.5 months, so what's next.

So I have understood why he mentioned he anticipates significant date movement ahead, but I don't understand why he said not on a monthly basis. I am not ready to believe CO will try quarterly spillover in this day and age where there is so much 140 backlog for EB1 and EB2ROW. In fact if you ask someone like Ron Gotcher, he does not see where we think quarterly spillover is also allowed as per law.

[nishant2200]

I agree with you on this bolded point. AC21 also kicks in only after 180 days of applying, so EAD is useless for primary applicant if he gets laid off or any job problems before these 180 days.


"If he follows F2A FB strategy he did last year, he has to move this next VB. In this last year, what he did was he initially moved in quantity of 3 months around, and in the last two VB, he moved 2 months a piece. This year for EB2 I/C, he has moved 3 months, 3.5 months, so what's next. "

I also compared F2A FB with EB2, but I noticed that F2A advanced significantly in the summer of 2010. In the Fall of 2011, F2A advanced in smaller steps. So it's in a different situation compared to EB2.

I hope CO can advance EB2 in bigger steps.

I saw many EB2-C got their GC only several days after they got EAD/AP. What's the point of applying EAD/AP? It is not useful for the folks with post-2007.07 PD.

If he can advance EB2 in bigger steps, then EAD/AP will be useful for the folks after 2007.07. He should do that! What's the point of EAD/AP?

In my opinion, he should let all the folks before 2009.12 apply for EAD/AP. If he does not do that, that means he is cold blooded and has no mercy on EB2 C/I.

[shaumack]

".... my opinion, he should let all the folks before 2009.12 apply for EAD/AP. If he does not do that, that means he is cold blooded and has no mercy on EB2 C/I.

I don't know what personal grudge you have on the guy but you need to cut him some slack. He is already bending/breaking the rules to move cut-off dates so early in the year more than annual limit. Above all, even allocating visas for the approvals. What else do you want him to do?

[qblogfan]

I don't have personal grudge on him. My point is that they should treat EB immigrants better. EB immigrants are not treated well now. Is it humane to let people wait for five or ten years? Of course EB people have a choice to leave, but is it so easy after you spend ten years or more here? It does not violate any law if they move PD to 2009.12. If they have mercy on EB immigrants, they should let them apply for EAD/AP and give them a better living condition. Without EAD/AP, EB immigrants' life is unstable and risky.


I don't know what personal grudge you have on the guy but you need to cut him some slack. He is already bending/breaking the rules to move cut-off dates so early in the year more than annual limit. Above all, even allocating visas for the approvals. What else do you want him to do?

[pch053]

"
I saw many EB2-C got their GC only several days after they got EAD/AP. What's the point of applying EAD/AP? It is not useful for the folks with post-2007.07 PD.

If he can advance EB2 in bigger steps, then EAD/AP will be useful for the folks after 2007.07. He should do that! What's the point of EAD/AP?

In my opinion, he should let all the folks before 2009.12 apply for EAD/AP.

I do agree that EAD & AP has been of immense help for 2007 filers and now it is not going to be of much use unless dates move forward drastically for EB2-I/C people. It might help some EB2 folks with PDs around March - June 2008 who might not get I485 approval but might be able to file I485 this year. For EB3 filers also, it won't help as EB3 dates are progressing very slowly. During 2007, one needed to apply for EAD and AP separately and now it is combined with I485 application. USCIS can take stock of this situation and see what purpose EAD & AP are serving. The processing time for EAD & AP is ~3 months and one is getting I485 approval within 3 - 4 months, assuming the PD is current.

[shaumack]

I don't have personal grudge on him. My point is that they should treat EB immigrants better. EB immigrants are not treated well now. Is it humane to let people wait for five or ten years? Of course EB people have a choice to leave, but is it so easy after you spend ten years or more here? It does not violate any law if they move PD to 2009.12. If they have mercy on EB immigrants, they should let them apply for EAD/AP and give them a better living condition. Without EAD/AP, EB immigrants' life is unstable and risky.

It is none of CO's business how EB immigrants are treated;he is hired to do his job as per law. For reliefs and action we have Congress and Senate. This is more of a reason that everyone should support and work towards HR3012, as this is only resort that will bring so called mercy.

I agree law does not violate such movement as long as demand is less than supply but CO has already made movement more than the Section 201 (a)(2) of INA act allows for first three-quarter ( ie 27% of annual limit) . He already did a favor to EB2 C/I where he moved dates more than the supply. Any movement after this is just blessing for us.

EAD is provision via 8 CFR 274a(c)(9) for those whose AOS is pending adjudication. It was introduced when it was thought that retrogression would be less common. I am not sure if word retrogression is ever used in INA Act. It was first used by USCIS later. EAD was never meant to be used as an extended license to change multiple employers and was thought as a gap filler until permanent residency is approved within few months from filing. DOS or even congress does not want anyone to receive EAD before an acceptable period from receiving GC. CO has already gone enough criticism for what he availed to 2007 filers after making dates current. I doubt he will go through this again in near future.

[Monica12]

I understand Qblogfan's point of view. It's not about a personal grudge. It's just that some people are in a job they are happy with. But there are many more people who are not or some people fall into circumstances which makes GC/EAD/AP really important etc etc.....It all depends on one's personal situation.
The whole system is really messed up..there is no set pattern/consistency or clarity. Eb2 and Eb3 is a mess. Who is to be blamed? The whole system and CO becomes an easy target.....but he is obviously doing his job and has to answer to people higher up.
He is definitely doing something different this time which is highly commendable.

[vizcard]

It is none of CO's business how EB immigrants are treated;he is hired to do his job as per law. For reliefs and action we have Congress and Senate. This is more of a reason that everyone should support and work towards HR3012, as this is only resort that will bring so called mercy.

I agree law does not violate such movement as long as demand is less than supply but CO has already made movement more than the Section 201 (a)(2) of INA act allows for first three-quarter ( ie 27% of annual limit) . He already did a favor to EB2 C/I where he moved dates more than the supply. Any movement after this is just blessing for us.

EAD is provision via 8 CFR 274a(c)(9) for those whose AOS is pending adjudication. It was introduced when it was thought that retrogression would be less common. I am not sure if word retrogression is ever used in INA Act. It was first used by USCIS later. EAD was never meant to be used as an extended license to change multiple employers and was thought as a gap filler until permanent residency is approved within few months from filing. DOS or even congress does not want anyone to receive EAD before an acceptable period from receiving GC. CO has already gone enough criticism for what he availed to 2007 filers after making dates current. I doubt he will go through this again in near future.

Bravo !!! A very well thought out post. Agree 100%. That being said, it'd be nice to have the EAD. I'm quite happy in my current job but I keep getting calls with significant salary bumps.

[qesehmk]

I agree that qbf is too aggressive in criticizing CO. But CO and VO has done nothing to alleviate the pain of EB2IC. On the contrary by not doing quarterly spillovers as LAW requires them to do, he and VO has violated the law.

Whatever they are doing now is not doing any favor to anybody. They need to replenish USCIS inventory and they are assisting USCIS in that. Again they seem to be bending and breaking law. But I have no doubt they are NOT doing it to help EB2IC.

Of course although I have these thoughts I do not go on a tirade against CO. I agree that it doesn't hurt to be polite. Its just that I do think that CO and VO's actions have consistently hurt EB2IC interests.


It is none of CO's business how EB immigrants are treated;he is hired to do his job as per law. For reliefs and action we have Congress and Senate. This is more of a reason that everyone should support and work towards HR3012, as this is only resort that will bring so called mercy.

I agree law does not violate such movement as long as demand is less than supply but CO has already made movement more than the Section 201 (a)(2) of INA act allows for first three-quarter ( ie 27% of annual limit) . He already did a favor to EB2 C/I where he moved dates more than the supply. Any movement after this is just blessing for us.

EAD is provision via 8 CFR 274a(c)(9) for those whose AOS is pending adjudication. It was introduced when it was thought that retrogression would be less common. I am not sure if word retrogression is ever used in INA Act. It was first used by USCIS later. EAD was never meant to be used as an extended license to change multiple employers and was thought as a gap filler until permanent residency is approved within few months from filing. DOS or even congress does not want anyone to receive EAD before an acceptable period from receiving GC. CO has already gone enough criticism for what he availed to 2007 filers after making dates current. I doubt he will go through this again in near future.

[shaumack]

On the contrary by not doing quarterly spillovers as LAW requires them to do, he and VO has violated the law.

----------------
----------------

Of course although I have these thoughts I do not go on a tirade against CO. I agree that it doesn't hurt to be polite. Its just that I do think that CO and VO's actions have consistently hurt EB2IC interests.

Q,

I understand where everyone is coming from but being polite does not hurt.

Regarding quarterly spillover I had talked to few folks in past. Complication about using quarterly spillover is verbiage in Section 202 (a)(5) which states "A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter."

Calendar quarter starts in January while fiscal year starts in October. Earliest they can use that spillover is in April where other remainder of calendar quarters starts. Hence by the time DOS gets information on this from USCIS, it is time to determine May VB in second week of April. This is where you usually see first effect of quarterly spillover, which in reality is half yearly spillover. Problem with verbiage is quarterly spillover though starts in calendar quarter has to be used by end of fiscal year. So we cannot blame CO for this as he is doing exactly what laws call for ie to use spillover staring April.

[pch053]

As seen in trackitt, EB2I approvals are still trickling in which is surely a good news for EB2-I/C folks. I see around 115 EB2I (incl NIW) trackitt approvals so far for the month of Oct and there have been ~3 - 4 approvals today. I think if this rate of approval continues in near future, most of the 2007 filers will be cleared by the end of this calendar year. This will also pave the way for the PWMB and new filings (i.e. post Aug'07 folks whose PDs got current) to be adjudicated sometime from early-mid 2012.

[kd2008]

I did a quick trackitt check for I-485 applications filed between May 2011 and August 2011. 168 Out of ~500 approved so far with a median time of ~81 days. By the time all of them get approved, the median time for approval could get to 200 days - if there is no retrogression.

As we now move away from the era of preadjudicated cases of 2007 and start the cycle of build up yearly inventory and use it, these kind of metrics are going to important. In the earlier era, date movement translated into direct visa consumption due to preadjudication. Now the processing time will impact the approval rate and thereby influencing the date movement on yearly basis. The monthly basis of date movement will still be at the discretion of CO.

[asankaran]

I think there is nothing wrong in criticizing CO, USCIS et.al. These individuals and organizations have been created to be inefficient so that potential immigrants could be frustrated to their wits end. How else could the wastage of visas, delays in processing H1B, ripping of employers by premium processing could be explained ?

BTW on a happier note, Wish all of Q Blog readers Happy and Prosperous Diwali. Thanks Q for creating this wonderful ecosystem that brings clarity to the whole immigration process. Congratulations to all those who have become current and pray that by next Diwali we are in a better state than we are currently.

Thanks,
Arun

I agree that qbf is too aggressive in criticizing CO. But CO and VO has done nothing to alleviate the pain of EB2IC. On the contrary by not doing quarterly spillovers as LAW requires them to do, he and VO has violated the law.

Whatever they are doing now is not doing any favor to anybody. They need to replenish USCIS inventory and they are assisting USCIS in that. Again they seem to be bending and breaking law. But I have no doubt they are NOT doing it to help EB2IC.

Of course although I have these thoughts I do not go on a tirade against CO. I agree that it doesn't hurt to be polite. Its just that I do think that CO and VO's actions have consistently hurt EB2IC interests.

[smuggymba]

I don't have personal grudge on him. My point is that they should treat EB immigrants better. EB immigrants are not treated well now. Is it humane to let people wait for five or ten years? Of course EB people have a choice to leave, but is it so easy after you spend ten years or more here? It does not violate any law if they move PD to 2009.12. If they have mercy on EB immigrants, they should let them apply for EAD/AP and give them a better living condition. Without EAD/AP, EB immigrants' life is unstable and risky.

Anything special with 2009.

[Pundit Arjun]

smuggymba, take it easy and move on. Lets keep our focus on predictions.

[vizcard]

Q,

I understand where everyone is coming from but being polite does not hurt.

Regarding quarterly spillover I had talked to few folks in past. Complication about using quarterly spillover is verbiage in Section 202 (a)(5) which states "A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter."

Calendar quarter starts in January while fiscal year starts in October. Earliest they can use that spillover is in April where other remainder of calendar quarters starts. Hence by the time DOS gets information on this from USCIS, it is time to determine May VB in second week of April. This is where you usually see first effect of quarterly spillover, which in reality is half yearly spillover. Problem with verbiage is quarterly spillover though starts in calendar quarter has to be used by end of fiscal year. So we cannot blame CO for this as he is doing exactly what laws call for ie to use spillover staring April.

Calender quarter just means 3months. It does not mean it starts in Jan. Fiscal quarter is 13 weeks (52 weeks/4). What the rule states is that SO can happen every 3 calendar months rather than every 13 weeks (which could be mid calendar month)

Bottom line is that it is still unclear as to where the visas for these approvals are coming from. He could just be assuming a certain SO for Q1 and correct it later if it's too high or too low.

[qesehmk]

Thanks. Oct-Dec also is a calendar quarter. So in the past the spillover should've happened.

However there is something interesting I read yesterday that I never read before. How could I have missed it all along?

"A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter."

Its that "during the remainder of" that I have been missing. So basically what CO is doing right now is he is anticipating low EB2ROW usage and allocating the visas to EB2IC. No law is broken or bent. (Rather he is doing what he should've been doing last 4 years).

Again he is not doing it suddenly out of love of EB2IC. He is doing it and will continue to do it to teh extent USCIS can replenish their inventories sufficiently. That's great. So basically we might see dates moving steadily through at least next couple of bulletins.

I really do not engage in predicting next bulletin and the dates. Its futile. Nobody can read CO's mind. But I think we are on track to hit Jan 2008 well before I predicted I will hit it.




Regarding quarterly spillover I had talked to few folks in past. Complication about using quarterly spillover is verbiage in Section 202 (a)(5) which states "A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter."

Calendar quarter starts in January while fiscal year starts in October. Earliest they can use that spillover is in April where other remainder of calendar quarters starts. Hence by the time DOS gets information on this from USCIS, it is time to determine May VB in second week of April. This is where you usually see first effect of quarterly spillover, which in reality is half yearly spillover. Problem with verbiage is quarterly spillover though starts in calendar quarter has to be used by end of fiscal year. So we cannot blame CO for this as he is doing exactly what laws call for ie to use spillover staring April.

[qblogfan]

There is nothing special with 2009. I just think they should allow half of the applicants to get EAD/AP to make their life easier. These officials don't understand the pain of the long waiting. Maybe more than 100 thousand EB2 applicants are still waiting without EAD/AP. There is nothing wrong to grant them EAD/AP to allow them have a safer and more enjoyable life.

The reason why I criticized CO is that he has made many mistakes in the past. The critism is not for CO personally, but for his organization. I am happy about the unexpected movement in this fall, but he or his organization has made so many mistakes in the past. Just one example: the spillover to EB2 didn't start until the summer of 2008. Before that he spilled most of the visas to EB3. The law is the same, but how could they make such stupid mistakes? EB2 got the first backlog in October 2005. He or his organization didn't do spillover to EB2 in the summer of 2006 and 2007. I think EB2 shouldn't have this crazy backlog in the first place if he or his orgnization understood the law in 2005.


Anything special with 2009.

[sreddy]

I don't think anyboday right now asking to open flood gates like they did in 2007, but provide EAD to all those who got I140 approved, and movement few months at a time. You made an interesting comment here "DOS or even congress does not want anyone to receive EAD before an acceptable period from receiving GC", what is the source of that?


It is none of CO's business how EB immigrants are treated;he is hired to do his job as per law. For reliefs and action we have Congress and Senate. This is more of a reason that everyone should support and work towards HR3012, as this is only resort that will bring so called mercy.

I agree law does not violate such movement as long as demand is less than supply but CO has already made movement more than the Section 201 (a)(2) of INA act allows for first three-quarter ( ie 27% of annual limit) . He already did a favor to EB2 C/I where he moved dates more than the supply. Any movement after this is just blessing for us.

EAD is provision via 8 CFR 274a(c)(9) for those whose AOS is pending adjudication. It was introduced when it was thought that retrogression would be less common. I am not sure if word retrogression is ever used in INA Act. It was first used by USCIS later. EAD was never meant to be used as an extended license to change multiple employers and was thought as a gap filler until permanent residency is approved within few months from filing. DOS or even congress does not want anyone to receive EAD before an acceptable period from receiving GC. CO has already gone enough criticism for what he availed to 2007 filers after making dates current. I doubt he will go through this again in near future.

[qblogfan]

It's great finding. I believe this is the answer for the unexpected movement in this fall. Maybe he thinks EB2-ROW demand is low, so he can assign the numbers to EB2-C/I. As far as the total approval number is less than 26%*40000=10400.


Thanks. Oct-Dec also is a calendar quarter. So in the past the spillover should've happened.

However there is something interesting I read yesterday that I never read before. How could I have missed it all along?

"A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter."

Its that "during the remainder of" that I have been missing. So basically what CO is doing right now is he is anticipating low EB2ROW usage and allocating the visas to EB2IC. No law is broken or bent. (Rather he is doing what he should've been doing last 4 years).

Again he is not doing it suddenly out of love of EB2IC. He is doing it and will continue to do it to teh extent USCIS can replenish their inventories sufficiently. That's great. So basically we might see dates moving steadily through at least next couple of bulletins.

I really do not engage in predicting next bulletin and the dates. Its futile. Nobody can read CO's mind. But I think we are on track to hit Jan 2008 well before I predicted I will hit it.

[smuggymba]

There is nothing special with 2009. I just think they should allow half of the applicants to get EAD/AP to make their life easier.

Again, what's special with with half of the applicants. How are you arriving at these years and numbers? Why not give EAD/AP to all till 2011...Is your PD 2009?

[qblogfan]

Yes, I agree. Even yesterday I saw ten EB-2C approvals. I guess they are using 8k visa numbers in the first quarter and that means ROW EB2 will get around 2k visa numbers in Q1.


As seen in trackitt, EB2I approvals are still trickling in which is surely a good news for EB2-I/C folks. I see around 115 EB2I (incl NIW) trackitt approvals so far for the month of Oct and there have been ~3 - 4 approvals today. I think if this rate of approval continues in near future, most of the 2007 filers will be cleared by the end of this calendar year. This will also pave the way for the PWMB and new filings (i.e. post Aug'07 folks whose PDs got current) to be adjudicated sometime from early-mid 2012.

[suninphx]

Thanks. Oct-Dec also is a calendar quarter. So in the past the spillover should've happened.

However there is something interesting I read yesterday that I never read before. How could I have missed it all along?

"A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter."

Its that "during the remainder of" that I have been missing. So basically what CO is doing right now is he is anticipating low EB2ROW usage and allocating the visas to EB2IC. No law is broken or bent. (Rather he is doing what he should've been doing last 4 years).

Again he is not doing it suddenly out of love of EB2IC. He is doing it and will continue to do it to teh extent USCIS can replenish their inventories sufficiently. That's great. So basically we might see dates moving steadily through at least next couple of bulletins.

I really do not engage in predicting next bulletin and the dates. Its futile. Nobody can read CO's mind. But I think we are on track to hit Jan 2008 well before I predicted I will hit it.

Now we have some probable explaination as to where visas are coming from. :)

[qblogfan]

If they can, they should allow all the folks to get EAD/AP. I put 2009.12 because they don't want to flood their office and it is more realistic.


Again, what's special with with half of the applicants. How are you arriving at these years and numbers? Why not give EAD/AP to all till 2011...Is your PD 2009?

[bieber]

Smuggymba

qblogfan PD is in 2008 and I believe he is smart enough to know that just by suggesting a date in the forum won't influence the CO mind

please donot go personal at him, CO didnot do any favors to anybody and qblogfan need not to be polite as you or somebody else would expect

[shaumack]

I don't think anyboday right now asking to open flood gates like they did in 2007, but provide EAD to all those who got I140 approved, and movement few months at a time. You made an interesting comment here "DOS or even congress does not want anyone to receive EAD before an acceptable period from receiving GC", what is the source of that?

If you will attend stakeholder meeting, you will hear there are many instances of such disgrunts.

One of such instance is already documented by qbf (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2011&p=7424#post7424) on this forum.

[qesehmk]

That is an interesting point that you noted there about "during remainder of quarter". To use this efficiently onus is on USCIS to provide correct load or demand on monthly basis for a quarter, which I doubt is done efficiently for categories that are current (mostly done on quarterly basis). Based on information that I received, my take is still that in any case quarterly spillover cannot be used until March-April realistically. Anomaly to this is yet to be seen.

Qly spillover (QSP) has never been deployed ever before June of any fiscal. If at all this is the first time CO/VO has deployed it ever.

[shaumack]

Qly spillover (QSP) has never been deployed ever before June of any fiscal. If at all this is the first time CO/VO has deployed it ever.

Q, how can you forget May 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5424.html) VB which deployed spillover as per "Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)"? That is earliest it can get.

Q, this discussion will not take us anywhere and clearly deviates from the forum's focus. I will close this discussion here for now. We will discuss this later only after CO will clearly quote any statement about using spillover in next bulletins. Usually he will state (INA) Section 202(a)(5) whenever he will first use it. Keep up the good work.

[qesehmk]

May vs June - big deal!

The point being it should be happening every quarter and is not happening. This quarter is the first quarter when QSP may be happening. Lets see how it goes.

This is good discussion. Don't worry about focus. This is right up our alley. Difference in opinion is good. That's where one learns something.



Q, how can you forget May 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5424.html) VB which deployed spillover as per "Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)"? That is earliest it can get.

Q, this discussion will not take us anywhere and clearly deviates from the forum's focus. I will close this discussion here for now. We will discuss this later only after CO will clearly quote any statement about using spillover in next bulletins. Usually he will state (INA) Section 202(a)(5) whenever he will first use it. Keep up the good work.

[cbpds1]

Nice thought for the day by Q
Difference in opinion is good. That's where one learns something


May vs June - big deal!

The point being it should be happening every quarter and is not happening. This quarter is the first quarter when QSP may be happening. Lets see how it goes.

This is good discussion. Don't worry about focus. This is right up our alley. Difference in opinion is good. That's where one learns something.

[nishant2200]

Considering that the Nov VB was released on October 5th, which was a wednesday, and hence just after two working days into the month, and the demand data showed that the date for that date collected was October 4th, just the second working day of the month, I think it's not a far fetched idea to say Dec VB may be released on November 4th, which would be in fact 3 working days into the month.

Now, I think that, if demand data is released on Nov 4th Friday, VB will be released same day, or it can be released on Nov 7th Friday, and VB on same day. If it gets released on the 4th or 7th, it would be mostly good news, if it drags more than 7th, we should brace ourselves for not so good news which might mean a pause in movement, and that in my opinion would be a wasted opportunity to provide relief to EB2I/C folks. Only reason why even if good news, but CO releases on 7th, and not on 4th, would be to not catch anyone's eye that some pre-decisions had been made.

This is almost like needing runs off last ball of the over (game of cricket) to win. This Dec VB will be it for next few months I believe, this is the last best chance for CO to make a good movement before the 485s become ripe in inventory and people start hammering USCIS with service requests and congressional inquiries.

[qblogfan]

I agree that this is the last chance to see big movement. If this VB pauses, then we may have to wait for the summer months. I seriously doubt he will hold off and move dates in Q2. If this VB stops movement, then the future look is not going to be optimistic.

I also agree that this coming VB may get released on Nov.4th. Let's keep fingers crossed. Boys and girls have waited for too long...........


Considering that the Nov VB was released on October 5th, which was a wednesday, and hence just after two working days into the month, and the demand data showed that the date for that date collected was October 4th, just the second working day of the month, I think it's not a far fetched idea to say Dec VB may be released on November 4th, which would be in fact 3 working days into the month.

Now, I think that, if demand data is released on Nov 4th Friday, VB will be released same day, or it can be released on Nov 7th Friday, and VB on same day. If it gets released on the 4th or 7th, it would be mostly good news, if it drags more than 7th, we should brace ourselves for not so good news which might mean a pause in movement, and that in my opinion would be a wasted opportunity to provide relief to EB2I/C folks. Only reason why even if good news, but CO releases on 7th, and not on 4th, would be to not catch anyone's eye that some pre-decisions had been made.

This is almost like needing runs off last ball of the over (game of cricket) to win. This Dec VB will be it for next few months I believe, this is the last best chance for CO to make a good movement before the 485s become ripe in inventory and people start hammering USCIS with service requests and congressional inquiries.

[grnwtg]

Hi Nishant,

As you mentioned before, last visa bulletin was released earlier due to columbus day and it was hapenning from past 3-4 years..I dont think release day matters.
What ever might be the ground you just need a last minute field goal :) or one run of last ball which is also tense moment.


Considering that the Nov VB was released on October 5th, which was a wednesday, and hence just after two working days into the month, and the demand data showed that the date for that date collected was October 4th, just the second working day of the month, I think it's not a far fetched idea to say Dec VB may be released on November 4th, which would be in fact 3 working days into the month.

Now, I think that, if demand data is released on Nov 4th Friday, VB will be released same day, or it can be released on Nov 7th Friday, and VB on same day. If it gets released on the 4th or 7th, it would be mostly good news, if it drags more than 7th, we should brace ourselves for not so good news which might mean a pause in movement, and that in my opinion would be a wasted opportunity to provide relief to EB2I/C folks. Only reason why even if good news, but CO releases on 7th, and not on 4th, would be to not catch anyone's eye that some pre-decisions had been made.

This is almost like needing runs off last ball of the over (game of cricket) to win. This Dec VB will be it for next few months I believe, this is the last best chance for CO to make a good movement before the 485s become ripe in inventory and people start hammering USCIS with service requests and congressional inquiries.

[qblogfan]

Let's assume in Q1 USCIS can use 8k visas to approve all the cases submitted in 2007. Then the PWMB and the cases submitted in Oct. and Nov. should be around 10k. The question is that whether Mr.CO feels safe to have 10k EB2 C&I for the Q2/Q3/Q4. If he feels unsafe, then he will admit more. If he feels 10k is large enough, then he will pause. I hope he will not be conservative and admit more people.



Considering that the Nov VB was released on October 5th, which was a wednesday, and hence just after two working days into the month, and the demand data showed that the date for that date collected was October 4th, just the second working day of the month, I think it's not a far fetched idea to say Dec VB may be released on November 4th, which would be in fact 3 working days into the month.

Now, I think that, if demand data is released on Nov 4th Friday, VB will be released same day, or it can be released on Nov 7th Friday, and VB on same day. If it gets released on the 4th or 7th, it would be mostly good news, if it drags more than 7th, we should brace ourselves for not so good news which might mean a pause in movement, and that in my opinion would be a wasted opportunity to provide relief to EB2I/C folks. Only reason why even if good news, but CO releases on 7th, and not on 4th, would be to not catch anyone's eye that some pre-decisions had been made.

This is almost like needing runs off last ball of the over (game of cricket) to win. This Dec VB will be it for next few months I believe, this is the last best chance for CO to make a good movement before the 485s become ripe in inventory and people start hammering USCIS with service requests and congressional inquiries.

[nishant2200]

Let's assume in Q1 USCIS can use 8k visas to approve all the cases submitted in 2007. Then the PWMB and the cases submitted in Oct. and Nov. should be around 10k. The question is that whether Mr.CO feels safe to have 10k EB2 C&I for the Q2/Q3/Q4. If he feels unsafe, then he will admit more. If he feels 10k is large enough, then he will pause. I hope he will not be conservative and admit more people.

qbf, a very big reason due to which this Dec VB is extremely critical is that if he waits more, then even the summer months move you speculate might not happen and 10k that you mention above might be just large enough to survive the FY, because there is a huge monster lurking in terms of the pending 140s, anytime USCIS undertakes 140 backlog reduction to bring to 14-15k levels of 2009, EB2I/C will be completely screwed.

Hence if CO will be conservative and wait to admit more people, I don't think he will get to admit a lot more people, as I do feel USCIS will embark sometime this year to do backlog reduction of 140 to a certain extent at least. Last time they did this, it cost us around 7-8k visa movement by pausing the Sep VB.

I feel this Dec VB is a test of DOS's and to in fact a great extent, the policy administrators' whoever they are, their empathy, for EB2I/C folks, if any, and any heed they have paid to pleas of organizations fighting for EB folks like NIU.

edit: I admit I used to think that USCIS have hit a plateau in terms of 140 backlog reduction, but now I do think they will work for reducing backlog to a great chance, because of huge date movements of EB2I/C, I have a feeling that this is not very likable to USCIS when they are sitting on a stockpile of pending 140s.

[tanu_75]

I agree that this is the last chance to see big movement. If this VB pauses, then we may have to wait for the summer months. I seriously doubt he will hold off and move dates in Q2. If this VB stops movement, then the future look is not going to be optimistic.

I also agree that this coming VB may get released on Nov.4th. Let's keep fingers crossed. Boys and girls have waited for too long...........

I disagree. I think they could keep it constant this month and move it next month, i.e in Dec for Jan VB. Especially when they have said that in Nov VB that we should expect significant movement but not on a monthly basis. Not sure how things can change massively in one month that all movement will suddenly shift to Summer.

[qblogfan]

I think the next VB is the last one we can see movement. With the approvals of huge number of I140, it will be difficult to move the dates.


I disagree. I think they could keep it constant this month and move it next month, i.e in Dec for Jan VB. Especially when they have said that in Nov VB that we should expect significant movement but not on a monthly basis. Not sure how things can change massively in one month that all movement will suddenly shift to Summer.

[tanu_75]

I think the next VB is the last one we can see movement. With the approvals of huge number of I140, it will be difficult to move the dates.

I'm sure they were aware of the 140 backlog when they wrote this in the Nov VB :

While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

The Dashboard shows that the backlog went down a bit, but it has always been high even when the above was written. This is not news to them : http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1

I think they already have a plan in mind, how it will help/screw us we just don't know it yet. But I don't believe that the next month VB is the end-all till Summer unless it's a BTM. Even if they don't do any movement next month, I think they can do it the month after or so on.

[qesehmk]

Data always helps.
12 month rolling 2010 (140) - 75K completions.
12 month rolling 2011 (140) - 84K completions.

The extra 9K will have only 4.5K max ROW. of which max 2.5K will be EB2ROW. Which means full year impact of 5-6K on SOFAD

Besides, USCIS still needs to take even more intake. Oct 2007 makes it very conservative. Jan 2008 is what would be somewhat safe.

Dec may or may not move. But the dates will move in next 3-4 months.


I think the next VB is the last one we can see movement. With the approvals of huge number of I140, it will be difficult to move the dates.

[nishant2200]

tanu, what they write in VB, the notes like this, can easily be dismissed by them. they can easily say:

While significant future cut-off date movement was a possibility as noted in the November Visa Bulletin (Number xyz), It was brought to our attention by CIS that a significant amount of I-140 petitions pending with them have been adjudicated, which belong to categories that are Current. Readers were also advised that the movement in November Visa Bulletin is expected to generate significant demand for the Employment Based Second Preference Mainland China and India preferences. It has been hence necessary to retrogress dates to July 15th 2007.

I am not saying this will happen, I am just hypothetically, just like you, me, qblogfan, we are all trying to think various theories.

I will say it again, the I-140 backlog is a huge monster, and USCIS has shown an appetite to attending to it. It is a tug of war sometimes between DOS and USCIS. For eg: DOS says 12k more from EB1, USCIS says here you go, we have sudden 12k demand from EB1, EB2ROW. The earlier dates move, this will impact less, the later dates move, this will impact more.


I'm sure they were aware of the 140 backlog when they wrote this in the Nov VB :

While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

The Dashboard shows that the backlog went down a bit, but it has always been high even when the above was written. This is not news to them : http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1

I think they already have a plan in mind, how it will help/screw us we just don't know it yet. But I don't believe that the next month VB is the end-all till Summer unless it's a BTM. Even if they don't do any movement next month, I think they can do it the month after or so on.

[bieber]

Nishanth,

The pending 140 data that is available now showing the significant decrease, but isn't that already factored in Septemeber bulletin non movement? (may be the intent from CIS was to clear some backlog in August and so they warned DOS before releasing sept bulletin that the huge demand coming up)

The fact that they went ahead and moved dates in October and November tells me the completions may be not that high in Sept and early october

[qblogfan]

You brought up a very good point. Although they have 25k I140 pending cases, only a small percentage of them are EB2-ROW. Maybe the impact will not be as huge as we thought.


Data always helps.
12 month rolling 2010 (140) - 75K completions.
12 month rolling 2011 (140) - 84K completions.

The extra 9K will have only 4.5K max ROW. of which max 2.5K will be EB2ROW. Which means full year impact of 5-6K on SOFAD

Besides, USCIS still needs to take even more intake. Oct 2007 makes it very conservative. Jan 2008 is what would be somewhat safe.

Dec may or may not move. But the dates will move in next 3-4 months.

[nishant2200]

I agree bieber, I also think that right now is not their focus on 140 backlog reduction, but sometime this FY they will start that. And once they start that, dates movement will become very difficult. So all I am hoping is that DOS moves dates early on while they can. If DOS wants to hold true to NVC, which I believe is more related directly to them than USCIS, then this is their chance, these early months for big strides to reach mid 2008. Later on, they might be stopped in their tracks by USCIS who might go an effort to reduce 140 to clean their books.


Nishanth,

The pending 140 data that is available now showing the significant decrease, but isn't that already factored in Septemeber bulletin non movement? (may be the intent from CIS was to clear some backlog in August and so they warned DOS before releasing sept bulletin that the huge demand coming up)

The fact that they went ahead and moved dates in October and November tells me the completions may be not that high in Sept and early october

[suninphx]

qbf, a very big reason due to which this Dec VB is extremely critical is that if he waits more, then even the summer months move you speculate might not happen and 10k that you mention above might be just large enough to survive the FY, because there is a huge monster lurking in terms of the pending 140s, anytime USCIS undertakes 140 backlog reduction to bring to 14-15k levels of 2009, EB2I/C will be completely screwed.

Hence if CO will be conservative and wait to admit more people, I don't think he will get to admit a lot more people, as I do feel USCIS will embark sometime this year to do backlog reduction of 140 to a certain extent at least. Last time they did this, it cost us around 7-8k visa movement by pausing the Sep VB.

I feel this Dec VB is a test of DOS's and to in fact a great extent, the policy administrators' whoever they are, their empathy, for EB2I/C folks, if any, and any heed they have paid to pleas of organizations fighting for EB folks like NIU.

edit: I admit I used to think that USCIS have hit a plateau in terms of 140 backlog reduction, but now I do think they will work for reducing backlog to a great chance, because of huge date movements of EB2I/C, I have a feeling that this is not very likable to USCIS when they are sitting on a stockpile of pending 140s.

Does any one know what % of pending I140 are ROWs. Without that there is no point predicting if it will hurt or not and how much.

[leo07]

qblogfan, I kind of concur with your statement. This VB is likely to see a stretch forward. Next VB January 2012 VB may not be a good news for every one. Because there is a high probability of many PWMBs getting pre-adjudicated by then and they(PWMBs) would be waiting for visa numbers. If DOS still decides to move the dates while people opening SR requests, DOS could be breaking the law at that time. Unless they have a stable/workable formula to distribute visas in a round-robin fashion across all categories.(very risky)

Let's assume in Q1 USCIS can use 8k visas to approve all the cases submitted in 2007. Then the PWMB and the cases submitted in Oct. and Nov. should be around 10k. The question is that whether Mr.CO feels safe to have 10k EB2 C&I for the Q2/Q3/Q4. If he feels unsafe, then he will admit more. If he feels 10k is large enough, then he will pause. I hope he will not be conservative and admit more people.

[nishant2200]

Does any one know what % of pending I140 are ROWs. Without that there is no point predicting if it will hurt or not and how much.

Then let's think of anyway we can deduce approximate how many might be ROW, but you can't say there is no point in thinking how much it will hurt.

I brought this pending 140 about just to simulate this kind of point you put forth, to bring this discussion about.

[suninphx]

Then let's think of anyway we can deduce approximate how many might be ROW, but you can't say there is no point in thinking how much it will hurt.

I brought this pending 140 about just to simulate this kind of point you put forth, to bring this discussion about.

Nishat- point taken :). I was saying 'we need to know the approx. percentage' without that no point discussing whether or not it will hurt.

One of the way could be to figure out percentage of ROW:EB2IC PERM ratio? What do you think?

[tanu_75]

tanu, what they write in VB, the notes like this, can easily be dismissed by them. they can easily say:

While significant future cut-off date movement was a possibility as noted in the November Visa Bulletin (Number xyz), It was brought to our attention by CIS that a significant amount of I-140 petitions pending with them have been adjudicated, which belong to categories that are Current. Readers were also advised that the movement in November Visa Bulletin is expected to generate significant demand for the Employment Based Second Preference Mainland China and India preferences. It has been hence necessary to retrogress dates to July 15th 2007.

I am not saying this will happen, I am just hypothetically, just like you, me, qblogfan, we are all trying to think various theories.

I will say it again, the I-140 backlog is a huge monster, and USCIS has shown an appetite to attending to it. It is a tug of war sometimes between DOS and USCIS. For eg: DOS says 12k more from EB1, USCIS says here you go, we have sudden 12k demand from EB1, EB2ROW. The earlier dates move, this will impact less, the later dates move, this will impact more.

Yes, they can write whatever s*** and we'll lap it up, point taken.

However I don't think I've seen them make such an explicit positive statement about future movement. In my experience (in fact, I think I'll still get nightmares about VB movement even after I get my GC), they tend to defend or predict negative moves, but I haven't seen them predict positive on future movement. Probably because they haven't seen this situation in the past 4-5 years where they don't have 50k applications ready to go. So I think this is unique and there's a very good chance of dates moving before the end of this year. Now the definition of "significant", your guess is as good as mine. Could be 2 months, 6 months, 1 year.

[qblogfan]

I think EB2-I PERMs are at least 50% of the total PERM and EB2-C are at least 10%. That leaves maximum 40% ROW PERMs.


Does any one know what % of pending I140 are ROWs. Without that there is no point predicting if it will hurt or not and how much.

[qblogfan]

agree, Mr.CO seldom writes any positive things in VB. It is kind of special this time. But he is also unstable and unpredictable. Nobody knows what he will do.


Yes, they can write whatever s*** and we'll lap it up, point taken.

However I don't think I've seen them make such an explicit positive statement about future movement. In my experience (in fact, I think I'll still get nightmares about VB movement even after I get my GC), they tend to defend or predict negative moves, but I haven't seen them predict positive on future movement. Probably because they haven't seen this situation in the past 4-5 years where they don't have 50k applications ready to go. So I think this is unique and there's a very good chance of dates moving before the end of this year. Now the definition of "significant", your guess is as good as mine. Could be 2 months, 6 months, 1 year.

[cbpds1]

just imagine how CO will feel if he visits this website .....cold blooded+unstable+ unpredictable=sadistic mental retard :)


agree, Mr.CO seldom writes any positive things in VB. It is kind of special this time. But he is also unstable and unpredictable. Nobody knows what he will do.

[grnwtg]

Yes, i too dont remember when a visa bulletin was this optimistic, probably i might have missed but definetly this is positive.
As i have been telling from some time, it will be bad way of operating an office if they dont take atleast 30k to 35k new applications eventhough they might need only 25k application for this year.



Yes, they can write whatever s*** and we'll lap it up, point taken.

However I don't think I've seen them make such an explicit positive statement about future movement. In my experience (in fact, I think I'll still get nightmares about VB movement even after I get my GC), they tend to defend or predict negative moves, but I haven't seen them predict positive on future movement. Probably because they haven't seen this situation in the past 4-5 years where they don't have 50k applications ready to go. So I think this is unique and there's a very good chance of dates moving before the end of this year. Now the definition of "significant", your guess is as good as mine. Could be 2 months, 6 months, 1 year.

[vizcard]

just imagine how CO will feel if he visits this website .....cold blooded+unstable+ unpredictable=sadistic mental retard :)

Well I hope thats not all he takes from this site. The logical analysis here would be useful to him too :P

[bieber]

Nishanth, Thanks :)

grnwtg, I don't know if he has to take only one year quota, it got to be atleast, just a thought but he may consider taking couple of years (i will be in with 1 yr itself, just in case if anyone wonders :) )

[nishant2200]

I think EB2-I PERMs are at least 50% of the total PERM and EB2-C are at least 10%. That leaves maximum 40% ROW PERMs.

guys, also some of these would be porters from EB3 to EB2, as well as EB2 to EB2 if someone changed jobs, they need new 140 approval also

[nishant2200]

I agree with this observation, they don't make such nice future prediction out in the open.


Yes, they can write whatever s*** and we'll lap it up, point taken.

However I don't think I've seen them make such an explicit positive statement about future movement. In my experience (in fact, I think I'll still get nightmares about VB movement even after I get my GC), they tend to defend or predict negative moves, but I haven't seen them predict positive on future movement. Probably because they haven't seen this situation in the past 4-5 years where they don't have 50k applications ready to go. So I think this is unique and there's a very good chance of dates moving before the end of this year. Now the definition of "significant", your guess is as good as mine. Could be 2 months, 6 months, 1 year.

[immi2910]

I think EB2-I PERMs are at least 50% of the total PERM and EB2-C are at least 10%. That leaves maximum 40% ROW PERMs.

Assumptions:
- EB2 IC is 70% of all EB2+3 IC PERM applications (see my other posts for reasons)
- EB2 ROW is 50% of all EB2+3 ROW PERM applications (guess)
- EB1 IC to EB1 ROW ratio is similar to EB2+3 ratios

Calculation:
Total PERM applications with PD 07/2007 to 06/2011 = 199,525
IC PERM applications with PD 07/2007 to 06/2011 = 95,260

Therefore, EB2 IC to EB2 Total ratio = (95,260 * 0.7)/(199,525 * 0.5) ~ 67%

Summary:
Thus, EB2 IC is 67% and EB2 ROW is 33%.

[nishant2200]

thank you immi2910!

Based on this assumption, So if one assumes say ROW 33%, and also let's say 7% is porters, then 40% of the 140 are for ROW + Porters, and 10k would be the effect of backlog reduction considering that they stick to 25k pending level despite of new incoming 140 applications. Taking 80% approval rate of I-140 assumption, then it would be 8k impact on SOFAD, based on this particular calculation. But this SOFAD decrease also takes into account around 1.7k decrease due to porting, that we can keep in mind when correlating with Spec's tables. Or we can say it only impacts 6.3k SOFAD, and we keep porting seperate. This brings it darn close to the 5-6k SOFAD shown by Q's rollover post earlier.


Assumptions:
- EB2 IC is 70% of all EB2+3 IC PERM applications (see my other posts for reasons)
- EB2 ROW is 50% of all EB2+3 ROW PERM applications (guess)
- EB1 IC to EB1 ROW ratio is similar to EB2+3 ratios

Calculation:
Total PERM applications with PD 07/2007 to 06/2011 = 199,525
IC PERM applications with PD 07/2007 to 06/2011 = 95,260

Therefore, EB2 IC to EB2 Total ratio = (95,260 * 0.7)/(199,525 * 0.5) ~ 67%

Summary:
Thus, EB2 IC is 67% and EB2 ROW is 33%.

[vizcard]

Has Spec's table been "ported over" (couldn't resist!) to this thread. I know it was in 2011 thread and I looked at the first couple of pages here and didn't see it.

[nishant2200]

Has Spec's table been "ported over" (couldn't resist!) to this thread. I know it was in 2011 thread and I looked at the first couple of pages here and didn't see it.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011

this is probably what you are looking for

[vizcard]

gracias nishant

[grnwtg]

With below assumption, 5-6k is true but we have to assume that there will be very minimum backlog of I140 by the end of year which i think is not possible. So i guess some percent of 5-6k can be reduced.


thank you immi2910!

Based on this assumption, So if one assumes say ROW 33%, and also let's say 7% is porters, then 40% of the 140 are for ROW + Porters, and 10k would be the effect of backlog reduction considering that they stick to 25k pending level despite of new incoming 140 applications. Taking 80% approval rate of I-140 assumption, then it would be 8k impact on SOFAD, based on this particular calculation. But this SOFAD decrease also takes into account around 1.7k decrease due to porting, that we can keep in mind when correlating with Spec's tables. Or we can say it only impacts 6.3k SOFAD, and we keep porting seperate. This brings it darn close to the 5-6k SOFAD shown by Q's rollover post earlier.

[shaumack]

May vs June - big deal! .

Pointing May VB was never meant to criticize you but to backup statement that as per interpretation of law (or you can say My interpretation), quarterly spillover can only commence in March-April, and since May VB is released in the April this is the best case that is ever seen or will be seen for use of such visas.There is no precedence to anything better than this previously and may not happen in future. We will see.


The point being it should be happening every quarter and is not happening. This quarter is the first quarter when QSP may be happening. Lets see how it goes.
It is too early to say any kind of QSP is happening as we have just seen EB2 I/C approvals for October VB which is well within annual limit for I & C together. Even after this, not all those current in October have received GCs yet. Apart from this, November VB approvals are yet to be seen, which would really complete use of 8075 visas. That said, even if November VB approvals will happen, no one would know where those numbers came from unless DOS explains it explicitly. If DOS is doing QSP without stating it then this may be one time thing and this may not happen again in future. 27% annual limit of EB2 is 10800 and as long as DOS can keep total EB2 approvals (I/C/ROW/M/P) below this number until Q3 or till real spillover starts, they can very well justify such movement. This would clearly justify no urgency in reducing EB2 I-140 backlog at USCIS. Lots of conspiracy theory can be framed but reality will still be unknown.


This is good discussion. Don't worry about focus. This is right up our alley. Difference in opinion is good. That's where one learns something. I am glad you are taking this positively but this is it from me for sometime until I/we have more comprehensive info/explanation on availability of visas that allowed approvals for IC in Oct-Nov VB.

[vizcard]

shaumack - QSP can begin in Jan ... it does not have to wait till April / May. As posted above your definition of calendar quarter is incorrect. That being said, the implications are still the same (or better). Using the visas early in the year, hopefully allows him to continue moving dates before he gets a sense of "true SO".

[qesehmk]

I hear you. But lets agree to disagree. Thanks.


Pointing May VB was never meant to criticize you but to backup statement that as per interpretation of law (or you can say My interpretation), quarterly spillover can only commence in March-April, and since May VB is released in the April this is the best case that is ever seen or will be seen for use of such visas.There is no precedence to anything better than this previously and may not happen in future. We will see.


It is too early to say any kind of QSP is happening as we have just seen EB2 I/C approvals for October VB which is well within annual limit for I & C together. Even after this, not all those current in October have received GCs yet. Apart from this, November VB approvals are yet to be seen, which would really complete use of 8075 visas. That said, even if November VB approvals will happen, no one would know where those numbers came from unless DOS explains it explicitly. If DOS is doing QSP without stating it then this may be one time thing and this may not happen again in future. 27% annual limit of EB2 is 10800 and as long as DOS can keep total EB2 approvals (I/C/ROW/M/P) below this number until Q3 or till real spillover starts, they can very well justify such movement. This would clearly justify no urgency in reducing EB2 I-140 backlog at USCIS. Lots of conspiracy theory can be framed but reality will still be unknown.

I am glad you are taking this positively but this is it from me for sometime until I/we have more comprehensive info/explanation on availability of visas that allowed approvals for IC in Oct-Nov VB.

[soggadu]

for the benefit of all

"$985. (Add $85 biometric fee for a total of $1070, where applicable. See the form instructions for payment details.) You must make your check payable to Department of Homeland Security."

Dont use short names like US DHS and US CIS...

Also, the 485 discussion thread is closed... gang of gurus, please make sure all the threads are open so that we can post info accordingly...

[leo4ever]

Dear Friends,

Happy Diwali. May this Diwali bring you lots of happiness and Joy (apart from petty good news like GC).


Wish all of you and your family a very happy diwali & prosperous new year (with GC).

May God fulfill all your wishes in wealth, health, happiness & GC in your life.

[qesehmk]

Thanks soggadu. Opened 485 thread. Must havebeen clsoed by mistake by one of us!

Happy Diwali to All. And a happy new year. May the new year bring new hope, new things, peace, happiness, prosperity or for some simply the GC :) and everything will follow.

[Monica12]

Happy Diwali, everyone !!!!

[qblogfan]

Happy Diwali to all! I hope you guys can get GC and visit families in India in the next Diwali!


Thanks soggadu. Opened 485 thread. Must havebeen clsoed by mistake by one of us!

Happy Diwali to All. And a happy new year. May the new year bring new hope, new things, peace, happiness, prosperity or for some simply the GC :) and everything will follow.

[TeddyKoochu]

A very very happy, prosperous, enlightening and bright Diwali to you and your families. May this journey of GC end soon for all of us waiting.

[baba2s]

May This Diwali be as bright as ever.
May this Diwali bring joy, health and wealth to you.
May the festival of lights brighten up you and your near and dear ones lives.
May this Diwali bring you the utmost in peace and prosperity.
May lights triumph over darkness.
May the spirit of light illuminate the world.
May the light that we celebrate at Diwali show us the way and lead us
together on the path of peace and social harmony
"WISH U ALL A VERY HAPPY DIWALI"


Diwali Par Sky Saja do
Fireworks Se Dhoom Macha Do!!
Happy Diwali To All!!

Baray hon ya chottay aap
Amma hon ya kisi k baap

Diwali par ho fun non stop
Kisi ko na rokain aap!!

Happy Diwali!! :cool:

[needid]

My attorney asked to pay a single check (attorney fee +All application Fee),hmm 5K+, They would take care of paying to USCIS.



for the benefit of all

"$985. (Add $85 biometric fee for a total of $1070, where applicable. See the form instructions for payment details.) You must make your check payable to Department of Homeland Security."

Dont use short names like US DHS and US CIS...

Also, the 485 discussion thread is closed... gang of gurus, please make sure all the threads are open so that we can post info accordingly...

[nishant2200]

My recent H4 extension check for my wife was encashed by them as an electronic ACH debit, I do remember though that they used to do paper checks a while back, because people used to see their receipt numbers in advance from the check image.

but if they indeed are converting the checks into electronic debit authorization, then IMHO it don't matter really if you put USCIS, DHS, US DHS, Depart of Homeland Security and so on. The banks are going to trust the authority of the vendor who has been granted such trust facility and honor the incoming request for payment. Anyways, just a theory like many others I put out! We should still do what we think is right.


for the benefit of all

"$985. (Add $85 biometric fee for a total of $1070, where applicable. See the form instructions for payment details.) You must make your check payable to Department of Homeland Security."

Dont use short names like US DHS and US CIS...

Also, the 485 discussion thread is closed... gang of gurus, please make sure all the threads are open so that we can post info accordingly...

[Eb2_Dec07]

Happy Diwali Guys , let's hope after festival of lights we will see festival of PDs.



" Mere pass gaadi hein, bungalow hein , bank balance hein ...aye...tere paas kya hein ....I wanna be able to say " Mere paas GC hein aye .."

[ravisekhar]

My recent H4 extension check for my wife was encashed by them as an electronic ACH debit, I do remember though that they used to do paper checks a while back, because people used to see their receipt numbers in advance from the check image.

but if they indeed are converting the checks into electronic debit authorization, then IMHO it don't matter really if you put USCIS, DHS, US DHS, Depart of Homeland Security and so on. The banks are going to trust the authority of the vendor who has been granted such trust facility and honor the incoming request for payment. Anyways, just a theory like many others I put out! We should still do what we think is right.

just for informayion.My friend recently applied for I-485 and his check was encashed as an ACH debit.

[kingcaeser]

My recent H4 extension check for my wife was encashed by them as an electronic ACH debit, I do remember though that they used to do paper checks a while back, because people used to see their receipt numbers in advance from the check image.

but if they indeed are converting the checks into electronic debit authorization, then IMHO it don't matter really if you put USCIS, DHS, US DHS, Depart of Homeland Security and so on. The banks are going to trust the authority of the vendor who has been granted such trust facility and honor the incoming request for payment. Anyways, just a theory like many others I put out! We should still do what we think is right.

Guys, can I write personal checks to Department of Homeland Security for $1070 each (for me and my wife) or should they be cashiers checks?

[sreddy]

I just attended a call with Fragomen that they conduct once every 6 months for immegrant workers undergoing immegration process within the company. It is intented to educate people with the immegration process and steps. While talking about Visa bulletin and date movement in the recent past, they mentioned "We are already hearing about possble retrogession in December Visa bulletin". Anybody heard about similar thing anywhere else? Unfortunately they did not answer my follow-up question on that subject due to lack of time.

[bieber]

I just attended a call with Fragomen that they conduct once every 6 months for immegrant workers undergoing immegration process within the company. It is intented to educate people with the immegration process and steps. While talking about Visa bulletin and date movement in the recent past, they mentioned "We are already hearing about possble retrogession in December Visa bulletin". Anybody heard about similar thing anywhere else? Unfortunately they did not answer my follow-up question on that subject due to lack of time.

Even if they retrogress it will go to July15, 2007 at the most

[sandeep11]

Well that is so disappointing to hear. Fragomen is a very reputed law firm and I remember someone in this forum mentioned that some of their friends ( with PDs in Jan 2008) were asked to be prepared and be ready with the documents by Fragomen.

I guess it was rdsingh....rdsingh, do you have any insight or info on this??


I just attended a call with Fragomen that they conduct once every 6 months for immegrant workers undergoing immegration process within the company. It is intented to educate people with the immegration process and steps. While talking about Visa bulletin and date movement in the recent past, they mentioned "We are already hearing about possble retrogession in December Visa bulletin". Anybody heard about similar thing anywhere else? Unfortunately they did not answer my follow-up question on that subject due to lack of time.

[vizcard]

My process is managed by Fragomen too. Just from experience with them, they are extremely cautious and conservative in their projections/ approach. They had some issues a few years ago which is why they are extra careful now. I'm not sure how they have any better info than others unless they know people in CO's department. Like Beiber noted, even it does retrogress, it won't be significant and will bounce back sooner rather than later.

[Kanmani]

I-485 inventory as of October 2011 ..............
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20October%2001 %202011.pdf


Happy Diwali Friends

[nishant2200]

one day I don't check and Kanmani beats me to it :)

Now let's see what's it shows!

I am expecting the great Spectator to rise now, this will interest him.


I-485 inventory as of October 2011 ..............

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20October%2001 %202011.pdf



Happy Diwali Friends

[nishant2200]

sandy don't lose heart, else we won't be able to live through the next two weeks.

we have got conflicting reports basically on this, and really is up in the air. common sense suggests to me that they should not waste this opportunity and utilize this Dec VB to grab inventory.


Well that is so disappointing to hear. Fragomen is a very reputed law firm and I remember someone in this forum mentioned that some of their friends ( with PDs in Jan 2008) were asked to be prepared and be ready with the documents by Fragomen.

I guess it was rdsingh....rdsingh, do you have any insight or info on this??

[nishant2200]

Porting.

As per inventory report of October 1, 2010, EB3 I pending was 56,640 and as per October 1, 2011 EB3 I pending is 51,758. A reduction of 4,882. 2,800 normal quota, hence 2082 extra reduction. So porting is just around 2k (3k max)? I just had a huge Diwali lunch buffet so forgive me if I am making some totally stupid analysis here!

[gcseeker]

Happy Diwali to you all.

Rightly said Nishant. The next two weeks are going to be tough . With all the theories floating around , do not want to get my hopes up too high.

I just wish even if it retrogresses ,CO continues with QSP/Pipeline building in the next ones. However it will be hard to digest if after all the positive news the Dec VB moves back.

:) Just lurking around and not posting much to soothe my nerves ...borrowing your strategy of looking at the previous release dates of the bulletins.I think the Dec VB will be out on Friday the 11th Nov.

Dec VB 2010-Released on Nov 10th (Wed)
Dec VB 2009-Released on Nov 9th (Mon)
Dec VB 2008-Released on Nov 6th (Thurs)
Dec VB 2007-Released on Nov 13th (Tue)
Dec VB 2006-Released on Nov 8th (Wed)

In any case the CO would have already made up his mind ...either to retrogress or advance till Jan 2008.




sandy don't lose heart, else we won't be able to live through the next two weeks.

we have got conflicting reports basically on this, and really is up in the air. common sense suggests to me that they should not waste this opportunity and utilize this Dec VB to grab inventory.

[vizcard]

Porting.

As per inventory report of October 1, 2010, EB3 I pending was 56,640 and as per October 1, 2011 EB3 I pending is 51,758. A reduction of 4,882. 2,800 normal quota, hence 2082 extra reduction. So porting is just around 2-3k? I just had a huge Diwali lunch buffet so forgive me if I am making some totally stupid analysis here!

Help me understand how porting works.
Someone with EB3 has applied for 485 (in the 2007 fiasco) and is not current right now. He has EAD/ AP. If he ports, I'm guessing he has to file Labor, I-140 and I-485 again right? So what happens to his current EAD ? Does it get cancelled when he applies for the 485 again?

[sreddy]

I agree it won't go back too much, at least not below July 2007. Considering all are optimistic about forward movement in the next two VBs, backward movement so soon will be really hard for us to digest :( . As you said how would Fragomen know when CO himself may not have made up his mind about next month's movement yet. Are they talking based on any recent developments (like surge in 140 approvals) and using numbers? Or did they come to know anything about CO's new methodolgy that they used to make this forward movement last two months? Not sure..


My process is managed by Fragomen too. Just from experience with them, they are extremely cautious and conservative in their projections/ approach. They had some issues a few years ago which is why they are extra careful now. I'm not sure how they have any better info than others unless they know people in CO's department. Like Beiber noted, even it does retrogress, it won't be significant and will bounce back sooner rather than later.

[leo07]

as per the progression...throwing all theories and calculations out of the window, it must come on November 11th Friday

[grnwtg]

Oh my God, there are around 2k cases from 2006 for India from the October inventory and around 24k whole eb2...around 18k applications are reduced from last inventory, i am not sure if this is right..only 20% of application got cleared for April and May'2007.
This does not sound good future movement unless they want inventory

There are still 8.5 pending application for India.

Teddy/Veni Bhai loog...please give us ur insight





sandy don't lose heart, else we won't be able to live through the next two weeks.

we have got conflicting reports basically on this, and really is up in the air. common sense suggests to me that they should not waste this opportunity and utilize this Dec VB to grab inventory.

[meso129]

When one compares the june 2011 inventory v/s Oct inventory for EB2I the difference is 13571 which is what we got as SOFAD for FY2011. I am trying to understand why the Demand data used for determination of Nov 2011 bulletin says EB2I pending before Jan 1 2008 is 1275 The one on uscis inventory shows 8965. Why are these numbers too wide apart. DOS numbers are not just the consular posts but also includes cis numbers (thats what it says). Does anyone has any logical explanation.

[sandeep11]

Nishant Bhai,

I did feel a little disheartened for a bit...but you are right..It's Diwali Eve and I should probably forget about this VB stuff and enjoy.........

Happy Diwali!!!!!

Wishing everyone the Best of Luck.

Sandy-




sandy don't lose heart, else we won't be able to live through the next two weeks.

we have got conflicting reports basically on this, and really is up in the air. common sense suggests to me that they should not waste this opportunity and utilize this Dec VB to grab inventory.

[vizcard]

Oh my God, there are around 2k cases from 2006 for India from the October inventory and around 24k whole eb2...around 18k applications are reduced from last inventory, i am not sure if this is right..only 20% of application got cleared for April and May'2007.
This does not sound good future movement unless they want inventory

There are still 8.5 pending application for India.

Teddy/Veni Bhai loog...please give us ur insight
Sucks to be those folks from 2002 and before. :D

[bieber]

looks like the inventory as of October 1st

The EB2ROW+EB1 together has around 25k, looks like majority of this (75% atleast) is waiting on 140 approval to get processed and that could be the proper reason behind the big movement for EB2IC in last 2 bulletins

[veni001]

I-485 inventory as of October 2011 ..............

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20October%2001 %202011.pdf

Happy Diwali Friends

Kanmani,
Great! Thank you

Happy Diwali to all.

[immi2910]

It looks like EB1 India will become backlogged as well. There are 2,263 applications pending in 2011 alone. It does not bode well for EB2 IC in future years.

[immi2910]

Porting.

As per inventory report of October 1, 2010, EB3 I pending was 56,640 and as per October 1, 2011 EB3 I pending is 51,758. A reduction of 4,882. 2,800 normal quota, hence 2082 extra reduction. So porting is just around 2k (3k max)? I just had a huge Diwali lunch buffet so forgive me if I am making some totally stupid analysis here!

That is only for India. You would have to do the same for China and ROW.

Also, I think only applicant is included in I-485. Therefore, Visa Numbers needed is higher (around 2.05 / applicant). Therefore, regular quota for India is 2,805 / 2.05 = 1,368 I-485 applications. Thus porters are 4882 - 1368 = 3,512.

Now assume 3,500 applicants for India. Add 1,500 for China and ROW (just guessing need to analyze the data further) and you arrive at around 6,000 porters. I believe this is the number that has been thrown around in this forum.

EDIT: Apparently 3,500 + 1,500 = 5,000 and not 6,000 as I mention above. Stupid mathematics :). But I think you get the idea.
EDIT2: It turns out this report includes Primary as well as dependents (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=11857#post11857). So, the analysis is wrong.

[gc0907]

Guys, can I write personal checks to Department of Homeland Security for $1070 each (for me and my wife) or should they be cashiers checks?

Yes, personal check is fine. Here (http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf)it says personal check or money order.

[Gclongwait]

looks like the inventory as of October 1st

The EB2ROW+EB1 together has around 25k, looks like majority of this (75% atleast) is waiting on 140 approval to get processed and that could be the proper reason behind the big movement for EB2IC in last 2 bulletins

I dont think so. I think PWMB's are counted in this inventory maybe?