EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qesehmk]

Druvraj - That would be not only too extreme but almost impossible. I guarantee there will be a minimum 6 months movement. Can't be less than that under ANY circumstances.

Q,

I also read somewhere and I wish if you could confirm that there is going to be no movement in EB2I category for the FY2013.


Q, I think the 25K includes the initial allotment for EB2-IC. So shouldn't your calculation be 25K- 8K*2 - 5K = 4K

Spec, can you provide a breakdown of 25K as per your estimates (how much from different spillovers). Thanks for the detailed post.

Ghost, I am starting with 31K. The logic is really all of 2007K less 5K + 1/3rd of 2008 EB2IC was cleared in 2012. My calculations bring that to 31K.

[qesehmk]

Spec - based on 12K you are right. But earlier I said that something is missing here and I couldn't quite come to terms to 12K sofad. So my gut feel is that Sep 2008 should be reachable.
Q,

Sorry, but I would not agree.

Even using the current DOS Demand figures (which practically represent the lowest numbers) and ignoring any further porting numbers, then SOFAD of 12k (which is 9.2k for EB2-I) would only cover up to sometime in May 2008.

Currently DOS Demand shows about 5k EB2-I cases to the end of 2007 for EB2-I.

Once the effect of Porting and the final likely numbers (nearer the USCIS Inventory figure of 6.1k for cases before 2008 for EB2-I) are taken into account, I think a date in December 2007 would be about right for the 9.2k available to EB2-I.

EB2-C can go further than this purely on their 2.8k allocation.

[Spectator]

Q, I think the 25K includes the initial allotment for EB2-IC. So shouldn't your calculation be 25K- 8K*2 - 5K = 4K. This is probably what Spec was scared to calculate !!

Spec, can you provide a breakdown of 25K as per your estimates (how much from different spillovers). Thanks for the detailed post.GhostWriter,

Very roughly, it would be something like :

EB1 ---------------- 6.5
EB2-WW ------------- 8.7
EB4 ---------------- ---
EB5 ---------------- 4.0

Spillover --------- 19.2
EB2-IC allocation -- 5.8

Total ------------- 25.0

Don't get hung up on the exact figures.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Spec, Q.
Spec, so the FB based extra 2K went to EB1 and EB2-WW and Eb2-IC received it indirectly through those spillovers.


GhostWriter,

Very roughly, it would be something like :

EB1 ---------------- 6.5
EB2-WW ------------- 8.7
EB4 ---------------- ---
EB5 ---------------- 4.0

Spillover --------- 19.2
EB2-IC allocation -- 5.8

Total ------------- 25.0

Don't get hung up on the exact figures.

[Spectator]

Spec - based on 12K you are right. But earlier I said that something is missing here and I couldn't quite come to terms to 12K sofad. So my gut feel is that Sep 2008 should be reachable.Q,

Then you probably need to find around 10k extra visas from somewhere. :)

[qesehmk]

Guys my 31K is based on following 485 demand from EB2IC.

India
EB2 2007 2008
Jan - 0, 3,045
Feb - 0. 2,835
Mar - 0 2,310
Apr - 0 2,835
May - 0 2,625
Jun - 0 2,205
Jul - 0 2,152
Aug 2,415 2,133
Sep 2,415 1,995
Oct 2,730 2,520
Nov 2,520 2,100
Dec 2,310 2,188

China
EB2 2007 2008
Jan - 0 1,015
Feb - 0 945
Mar - 0 770
Apr - 0 945
May - 0 875
Jun - 0 735
Jul - 0 717
Aug 805 711
Sep 805 665
Oct 910 840
Nov 840 700
Dec 770 729

Based on this and the fact that 1/3 of 2008 is already approved and only 5K is remaining of 2007 & about equal or more was backlog from Oct 2011. 31K is the minimum SOFAD that EB2IC received in 2012.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec, Q.
Spec, so the FB based extra 2K went to EB1 and EB2-WW and Eb2-IC received it indirectly through those spillovers.Not quite. See post #7908.

An extra 1,456 was available from EB1.
An extra 391 was available from EB5.

That's 1,847 which I rounded up to 2k.

If EB4 contributed then that would be an extra 392 making 2,239 in total.

Either way, 2k is a convenient figure to use.

[druvraj]

Druvraj - That would be not only too extreme but almost impossible. I guarantee there will be a minimum 6 months movement. Can't be less than that under ANY circumstances.




Ghost, I am starting with 31K. The logic is really all of 2007K less 5K + 1/3rd of 2008 EB2IC was cleared in 2012. My calculations bring that to 31K.

Q,

I am sorry for the question. What I really wanted to ask was in the first 6 months of the FY 2013 there will be no movement right? We will see movement only in the last half of the year i.e. April onward...

[openaccount]

Guys my 31K is based on following 485 demand from EB2IC.

India
EB2 2007 2008
Jan - 0, 3,045
Feb - 0. 2,835
Mar - 0 2,310
Apr - 0 2,835
May - 0 2,625
Jun - 0 2,205
Jul - 0 2,152
Aug 2,415 2,133
Sep 2,415 1,995
Oct 2,730 2,520
Nov 2,520 2,100
Dec 2,310 2,188

China
EB2 2007 2008
Jan - 0 1,015
Feb - 0 945
Mar - 0 770
Apr - 0 945
May - 0 875
Jun - 0 735
Jul - 0 717
Aug 805 711
Sep 805 665
Oct 910 840
Nov 840 700
Dec 770 729

Based on this and the fact that 1/3 of 2008 is already approved and only 5K is remaining of 2007 & about equal or more was backlog from Oct 2011. 31K is the minimum SOFAD that EB2IC received in 2012.

Q,
Based on your approach there must have been around 8-9k approvals during Feb/March2012 for EB2IC just for PDs between Apr152008-Dec312008. This is just for applications filed In January 2012 and there must be approvals from previous month's(Dec2012) applications, if we assume that number to be around 4-5k, in Total there were around 12-14k EB2IC approvals in Feb/March 2012. I find it little hard to believe that CO didn't recognize that for almost 2 months.

[qesehmk]

Druvraj no need to be sorry. Just shoot a question if u have one. I think there will be movement even during q1 let alone 6 months. How much? Don't know.
Q,

I am sorry for the question. What I really wanted to ask was in the first 6 months of the FY 2013 there will be no movement right? We will see movement only in the last half of the year i.e. April onward...


Q,
Based on your approach there must have been around 8-9k approvals during Feb/March2012 for EB2IC just for PDs between Apr152008-Dec312008. This is just for applications filed In January 2012 and there must be approvals from previous month's(Dec2012) applications, if we assume that number to be around 4-5k, in Total there were around 12-14k EB2IC approvals in Feb/March 2012. I find it little hard to believe that CO didn't recognize that for almost 2 months.
Openaccount. Sorry didn't understand ur logic.

[Spectator]

Guys my 31K is based on following 485 demand from EB2IC.

....

Based on this and the fact that 1/3 of 2008 is already approved and only 5K is remaining of 2007 & about equal or more was backlog from Oct 2011. 31K is the minimum SOFAD that EB2IC received in 2012.Q,

I don't understand your figures. Maybe I am missing something.

Looking at EB2-I 2008, you have a demand of 28,943. That doesn't look right.

Overall, that represents an OR of 1.23 compared to the 23,566 PERM Certifications for India in the same period.

That is too high in my opinion. Personally, I have a calculated OR of nearer 0.85 (or c. 20k cases).

I believe the figure of 2008 cases already approved is about 25-27%.

Both the above would explain why you think the number of approvals are so much higher.

[yank]

Q/Spec,

Please advice basis of 1/3rd 2008 approval for EB2 I/C and if EB revived 5 K visas from FB then why there is no movement in EB2 ROW. There should be some movement at least couple of months. Is is possible those 5k would be allocated in FY 2013 as DOS came to know very late about those visas?

Sorry, if these are naive questions!

[openaccount]

Druvraj no need to be sorry. Just shoot a question if u have one. I think there will be movement even during q1 let alone 6 months. How much? Don't know.


Openaccount. Sorry didn't understand ur logic.

Q,
Sure no problem I was trying to explain for that many approvals to happen CO must have been totally unaware of what was going on especially in last 2 months(Feb/Mar2012).

For EB2IC to consume 31k and to clear 1/3 of 2008, there should have been around 12-14k EB2IC approvals in Feb/March 2012.
Month-------------------Approvals-------PD
Oct2011--Jan2012------->17k-----------Apr2007-Apr2008
Feb2012-Mar2012------->14k-----------Apr2007-Dec2008(in this 14k about 9k should be for applications filed in Jan2012 i.e., PD Apr2008-Dec2008)

17k approvals in 4 months are understandable but 14k in just 2months I don't think so that is why i was saying was CO really unaware of this many approvals and did he not realize until last minute.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks, got it (probably). So EB2-IC received an extra 1.8K (~2K) in spillover from EB1 and EB5 due to extra FB allotment to them. Shouldn't the extra 1.4K that EB2 received directly from FB be deducted as well in your adjustment (post 7909) below. Overall it is immaterial i guess. But the total benefit from FB to EB2-IC was 3.2K (~ 3.4K) (since EB2-IC is the residual category for EB2, even if 1.4K for EB2 was alloted to EB2-ROW, it would have increased the spillover for EB2-IC).



Not quite. See post #7908.

An extra 1,456 was available from EB1.
An extra 391 was available from EB5.

That's 1,847 which I rounded up to 2k.

If EB4 contributed then that would be an extra 392 making 2,239 in total.

Either way, 2k is a convenient figure to use.




Net SOFAD FY2012 ---------------- 17
Less extra from FB in FY2012 ---- (2)

[openaccount]

The underlying backlog was increased by 10k in FY2011 due to low approvals (the I-140 numbers and denial ratios should have given 35-36k) and appears to have been left at that level during FY2012.

Spec,
10k backlog from 2011 carried over to 2012 is true but approvals increased drastically this year(at least in trackitt), don't you think that should decrease 2012 backlog compared to 2011. Not sure how good are EB1 trackitt numbers in terms of real EB1 demand during previous years. Just another point of view from my side, would like to know your comments.

[Spectator]

Q/Spec,

Please advice basis of 1/3rd 2008 approval for EB2 I/C and if EB revived 5 K visas from FB then why there is no movement in EB2 ROW. There should be some movement at least couple of months. Is is possible those 5k would be allocated in FY 2013 as DOS came to know very late about those visas?

Sorry, if these are naive questions!yank,

I've mentioned this in a previous post.

DOS cannot officially calculate the numbers for the year and publish them in the VB until USCIS provide some figures to DOS. They did this even later than normal this year.

None of the figures required would alter the EB calculation and CO had the FB usage numbers required to do so shortly after the end of the FY2011 year in September 2011. Normally, he publishes the Visa Statistics in January, but waited until August this year for some unknown reason.

He has therefore known about the extra numbers for nearly 12 months and moved the Cut Off Dates accordingly. The extra numbers were not a surprise.

The numbers may not be allocated in FY2013.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Very roughly, it would be something like :
[FONT="Courier New"]EB1 ---------------- 6.5
EB2-WW ------------- 8.7
EB4 ---------------- ---
EB5 ---------------- 4.0
Spillover --------- 19.2



So in 2013 we should expect to see 31K - 8K*2 - 5K = 10K.


The 2x kicker for the EB2ROW backlog would not apply for 2013 as EB2 will have maxed out its 40K visa number allotment for the year, and all additional spillover will go to EB2IC (only I really) as the most backlogged categories.

Based on Spec's spill over breakdown above, actual EB2ROW visa numbers used in 2012 was 40K +2K (from FB) - 2.94K x 2 (EB2IC) - 8.7K (FA) = 27.5K.
True EB2ROW demand for 2012 was 27.5K + 8K (backlog) = 35.5K

For 2013, max visas available for EB2ROW (all spillover will go to EB2IC as most backlogged) = 40K (total assuming 0 from FB) - 2.8*2 (EB2IC) = 34.4K;

Since 35.5K > 34.4K, EB2ROW will not be able to use 27.5K (actual 2012 usage) + 8K x 2 = 43.5K, as you suggest but only 34.4K. On a side note, relative backlog of EB2ROW will expand (or, in other words, EB2ROW cut off date will move forward less than 12 months).

This maybe what Spec referred to when he said:



On the other hand, USCIS may just continue with a higher backlog for EB2-WW, as they appear to have done for EB1.
Until retrogression, EB2-WW did look on course to use close to their full allocation.

Now, going back to Qs math above, EB2IC will receive 31K - 8.7K - 5K = 17.3K of SOFAD for 2013.
With Spec's 25K estimate, we are looking at 25K - 8.7K -5K = 11.3K of SOFAD for 2013.
This then leaves us still having to a) clarify the disparity between Qs 31K estimate vs. Spec's 25K estimate for 2012 SOFAD, and b) estimate 2013 EB3 I to EB2 I porting.

[Spectator]

Thanks, got it (probably). So EB2-IC received an extra 1.8K (~2K) in spillover from EB1 and EB5 due to extra FB allotment to them. Shouldn't the extra 1.4K that EB2 received directly from FB be deducted as well in your adjustment (post 7909) below. Overall it is immaterial i guess. But the total benefit from FB to EB2-IC was 3.2K (~ 3.4K) (since EB2-IC is the residual category for EB2, even if 1.4K for EB2 was alloted to EB2-ROW, it would have increased the spillover for EB2-IC).GhostWriter,

That's a good observation.

My explanation is that I was including the 1.4k in the 8k that EB2-WW were short, but I think that's incorrect. The EB2-WW shortage would have been 1.4k greater if only 140k had been available or EB2-IC would have received 1.4k less.

But you are correct, the loss to EB2 as a whole is 3.4k, not 2k. Thanks for pointing that out - I do appreciate such thorough scrutiny.

My final figure in the calculation therefore reduces to 10.6k SOFAD for EB2-IC.

[Spectator]

The 2x kicker for the EB2ROW backlog would not apply for 2013 as EB2 will have maxed out its 40K visa number allotment for the year, and all additional spillover will go to EB2IC (only I really) as the most backlogged categories.Pedro,

That is not correct as I read the law.

Countries that have reached the 7% limit may not use spillover visas until all demand from Countries that have not reached their individual 7% limit has been satisfied.

If EB2-WW need more than 34.4k and spillover is available, then that demand will be met first. Only then does spillover go to the earliest PD for Countries who have already reached their 7% limit of 2.8k (in practice only EB2-I in FY2013).

It has been discussed extensively previously.

The kicker (as you put it) is that, in a nuclear scenario, EB2-I might only be left with the initial allocation of 2.8k if EB2-WW demand is equal to or exceeds 34.4k + spillover available. By the way, I don't believe that will happen.

[Spectator]

On another note I count 485. For eb2 at 60% and 2.1 ratio to perm. Do not count rejections to make it conservative from prediction perspective .....but from visa usage perspective that is turning out aggressive isn't it?Q,

Thanks for the explanation. I understand where your figure comes from now.

It does seem a little aggressive based on the actual numbers we're actually seeing.

For 2009, your figures would give 16,596 * 60% * 2.1 = 20,911

The USCIS Inventory shows 13,429

An OR of 0.85 would give 13,942 which seems more in the ball park.

Roughly speaking, in the old language, the 0.85 is 65% EB2, 80% of PERM become approved I-140, 2.05 I-485 per I-140 and nearly 80% of cases have survived.

[Newbie2009]

Hi All,
I am new to this forum and have some questions which I have jotted down below. Can someone please answer these or point me to a link where I can find the answers to

these? :)

Currently working for Company A for which my labor was filed (My PD is 2009), 140 approved, 485 filed, 180 days passed, currently on H1 which expires in end of 2013.

1. My job title & duties have been the same since I joined ( > 4 yrs) and my labor was filed for the same job title & duties. If I continue working for Company A and

supposedly my GC is approved, would I still need to stay in company A for 6 more months after receiving my GC? Since I have already served for > 180 days after filing

485, can I leave company A within one month of receiving the GC?

2. I suppose I can join a company B on H1 (same job title & duties), but will the H1 be filed for another 3 yrs in the new company or will it expire in end of 2013?

Meaning, considering the status I am in, can I join (theoretically) n number of companies with always 3 yrs of H1 (till I get my GC)?

3. If I join company B on H1 (same job title & duties), do I need to restart GC there (labor, 140 etc) or can I always get 3 yrs of extension on H1 till my GC comes?


Thanks in Advance !!!

Newbie2009

[qesehmk]

Newbie- welcome to the forum. I will give you my quick "opinions", but check out others' opinions as well.

On #1 - There is no definitive answer. Some say 180 days after 485 filing is just fine.
On #2 - Regardless of how many companies you join - your total H1 consecutive duration is 6 years max except when an approved labor GC is pending.
On #3 - Yes you will get extensions - I am not sure if they are always 3 years. But you can continue to get extensions.

Hi All,
I am new to this forum and have some questions which I have jotted down below. Can someone please answer these or point me to a link where I can find the answers to

these? :)

Currently working for Company A for which my labor was filed (My PD is 2009), 140 approved, 485 filed, 180 days passed, currently on H1 which expires in end of 2013.

1. My job title & duties have been the same since I joined ( > 4 yrs) and my labor was filed for the same job title & duties. If I continue working for Company A and

supposedly my GC is approved, would I still need to stay in company A for 6 more months after receiving my GC? Since I have already served for > 180 days after filing

485, can I leave company A within one month of receiving the GC?

2. I suppose I can join a company B on H1 (same job title & duties), but will the H1 be filed for another 3 yrs in the new company or will it expire in end of 2013?

Meaning, considering the status I am in, can I join (theoretically) n number of companies with always 3 yrs of H1 (till I get my GC)?

3. If I join company B on H1 (same job title & duties), do I need to restart GC there (labor, 140 etc) or can I always get 3 yrs of extension on H1 till my GC comes?


Thanks in Advance !!!

Newbie2009

[eb2visa]

See below responses


Hi All,
I am new to this forum and have some questions which I have jotted down below. Can someone please answer these or point me to a link where I can find the answers to

these? :)

Currently working for Company A for which my labor was filed (My PD is 2009), 140 approved, 485 filed, 180 days passed, currently on H1 which expires in end of 2013.

1. My job title & duties have been the same since I joined ( > 4 yrs) and my labor was filed for the same job title & duties. If I continue working for Company A and

supposedly my GC is approved, would I still need to stay in company A for 6 more months after receiving my GC? Since I have already served for > 180 days after filing

485, can I leave company A within one month of receiving the GC?

No Rule says you have to stay, but it might raise a flag while going for citizenship. So stay for some time.

2. I suppose I can join a company B on H1 (same job title & duties), but will the H1 be filed for another 3 yrs in the new company or will it expire in end of 2013?

Meaning, considering the status I am in, can I join (theoretically) n number of companies with always 3 yrs of H1 (till I get my GC)?

It will be a new H1 and it should be 1 or 3 years depending on your priority date as it is based on your I-140

3. If I join company B on H1 (same job title & duties), do I need to restart GC there (labor, 140 etc) or can I always get 3 yrs of extension on H1 till my GC comes?

No need, you can port using AC21


Thanks in Advance !!!

Newbie2009

[insane_yogi]

Hi,
Not Sure if this document has already been analyzed.
www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I-485-performancedata_jun2012.pdf

[Spectator]

They can be found at http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm

I have already updated the figures in the various threads in the FACTS & DATA section.

The decisions actually cover up to about July 13, so slightly more than three quarters.

Certifications to date by fiscal quarter are as follows:

Q1 ----- 9,508
Q2 ----- 7,086
Q3 ---- 17,255
Q4 ----- 2,104

Total - 35,953

Q3 certifications were more than Q1 and Q2 combined.

India represented 55% of all Certifications.

The figures are a confirmation of the recent PERM factsheet.

[chengisk]

They can be found at http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm

I have already updated the figures in the various threads in the FACTS & DATA section.

I bet you have four heads, eight hands and work on four computers. Thanks but it might take more than fours hours for me to figure out your updates. :)

[Newbie2009]

Thanks for answering my questions. Adding to my profile, I already have an EAD but not using it, still on H1.



Eb2visa, just wondering, why do you think the H1 extension would be for 1 yr and not 3 yrs? Also, for point no. 3, you said I can port using AC21. Does this mean using EAD (which I was hoping I could avoid)? Can you please clarify?

Also, :D if I can get opinions on my questions (on my previous post) from Spec & Kamnani, that will be great :)

[wavelet3000]

Long Term EB Prospects

PERM data suggest 48K underlying demand net of denials and withdrawals. We can also probably say that FY2012 is an average year in terms of underlying demand given that US economy is growing but not booming. Next 8 years or so will probably average the same.

Some of 48K perms are for porting and thus are duplicate. Since porting applies to entire EB3, for the sake of roundness, let's assume 8K is for porting. That leaves 40K of new demand for combined EB2 and EB3.

With somewhat optimistic assumption regarding dependents and ignoring EB2-NIW, this would translate into at least 80K of new 485 applications, spread over the years when underlying PDs become current. This number is right on target with combined EB2 and EB3 quota.

This means that over the long run average wait times will remain the same. Without HR3012, EB2-I will continue to relatively retrogress, EB2-C will very slowly catch up with EB2-WW, EB2-WW will remain current. EB3 will eventually start to catch up with EB2 assuming most new perms qualify and that porting serves as an escape valve to help equalize cutoff dates between EB2 and EB3. With HR3012, the situation will be similar except EB2-I and EB2-WW will be both retrogressed at the same COD.

So all in all, the long run prospects are not very appealing in the absence of an overall increase in EB quotas. The current quotas were set in 1990. Over 20+ years accumulated backlog has been relatively modest (300K?), especially given incomplete utilization of quotas due to INS/USCIS inefficiencies, and "special" years with high H1B limits. So you can say that as of 1990, the quotas were set roughly right. However, in those years US population has grown by 20%, labor force grown has by 17%, and GDP (real or nominal) has grown even more. I would say it makes sense to index EB quotas to population, determined at each census. Additional 28K per year till 2020 would reduce the backlog nicely.

Some say that long wait times discourage additional applicants and raising limits would not solve problems as more people will apply. In my view, the encouragement effect will be limited if H1B limits stay the same for now, since it is H1B pool that feeds GC pool most compared to direct applicants from abroad. Over even longer time, H1B limits would also need changing but doing so could be done with an eye of targeting a better H1B/GC ratio that helps keep wait times reasonable.

[Kanmani]

Hi All,
I am new to this forum and have some questions which I have jotted down below. Can someone please answer these or point me to a link where I can find the answers to

these? :)

Currently working for Company A for which my labor was filed (My PD is 2009), 140 approved, 485 filed, 180 days passed, currently on H1 which expires in end of 2013.

1. My job title & duties have been the same since I joined ( > 4 yrs) and my labor was filed for the same job title & duties. If I continue working for Company A and

supposedly my GC is approved, would I still need to stay in company A for 6 more months after receiving my GC? Since I have already served for > 180 days after filing

485, can I leave company A within one month of receiving the GC?

2. I suppose I can join a company B on H1 (same job title & duties), but will the H1 be filed for another 3 yrs in the new company or will it expire in end of 2013?

Meaning, considering the status I am in, can I join (theoretically) n number of companies with always 3 yrs of H1 (till I get my GC)?

3. If I join company B on H1 (same job title & duties), do I need to restart GC there (labor, 140 etc) or can I always get 3 yrs of extension on H1 till my GC comes?


Thanks in Advance !!!

Newbie2009

Newbie2009,

Please read my posts related to AC21 here .....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?992-AC21-Discussion&p=28058

1. With respect to 180 days employment after GC, that was in practice before AC21 came into picture. During pre-Ac21, there was no option for job change, you must work for the sponsor until and after GC(atleast 180 days after GC). Lawyers have no answer whether the pre-Ac21 rule is over-written by the current law or not. The reason is that Ac21 job porting rule is not clear and it doesn't elaborate anything about job change after GC. It says the I-485 application is protected if you change your job after 180 days of pending I-485. For this reason, the lawyers kept pre-AC21 practice for job changing after GC and Ac21 rule for changing jobs before GC.
So the conclusion is if you haven't invoked AC21 during pending GC period, then wait for 180 days after GC.

2.You can use the approved I-140 for any number of H1b extensions with any employer. But 3/2/1 year extension is purely based upon your luck and adjudicator's state of mind on that particular day :). My husband got one year extension for no reason.

3. please read my earlier posts in that link.

All the best!

[Spectator]

Long Term EB Prospects

PERM data suggest 48K underlying demand net of denials and withdrawals. We can also probably say that FY2012 is an average year in terms of underlying demand given that US economy is growing but not booming. Next 8 years or so will probably average the same.

Some of 48K perms are for porting and thus are duplicate. Since porting applies to entire EB3, for the sake of roundness, let's assume 8K is for porting. That leaves 40K of new demand for combined EB2 and EB3.

With somewhat optimistic assumption regarding dependents and ignoring EB2-NIW, this would translate into at least 80K of new 485 applications, spread over the years when underlying PDs become current. This number is right on target with combined EB2 and EB3 quota.

This means that over the long run average wait times will remain the same. Without HR3012, EB2-I will continue to relatively retrogress, EB2-C will very slowly catch up with EB2-WW, EB2-WW will remain current. EB3 will eventually start to catch up with EB2 assuming most new perms qualify and that porting serves as an escape valve to help equalize cutoff dates between EB2 and EB3. With HR3012, the situation will be similar except EB2-I and EB2-WW will be both retrogressed at the same COD.

So all in all, the long run prospects are not very appealing in the absence of an overall increase in EB quotas. The current quotas were set in 1990. Over 20+ years accumulated backlog has been relatively modest (300K?), especially given incomplete utilization of quotas due to INS/USCIS inefficiencies, and "special" years with high H1B limits. So you can say that as of 1990, the quotas were set roughly right. However, in those years US population has grown by 20%, labor force grown has by 17%, and GDP (real or nominal) has grown even more. I would say it makes sense to index EB quotas to population, determined at each census. Additional 28K per year till 2020 would reduce the backlog nicely.

Some say that long wait times discourage additional applicants and raising limits would not solve problems as more people will apply. In my view, the encouragement effect will be limited if H1B limits stay the same for now, since it is H1B pool that feeds GC pool most compared to direct applicants from abroad. Over even longer time, H1B limits would also need changing but doing so could be done with an eye of targeting a better H1B/GC ratio that helps keep wait times reasonable.wavelet3000,

Welcome to the forum and thank you for such an interesting post.

A few thoughts came to mind that you may wish to incorporate, or think about.

8k for porting would indicate 16k I-485. That is probably too high, despite CO's comments.

If the figure were to include cases denied at I-140, duplicate cases between spouses etc and porting it may not be unreasonable.

I think it is fine to ignore NIW, but you have not mentioned a far larger group outside the PERM system.

Schedule A workers also do not require a PERM and the numbers are not insubstantial. Until recently, approvals in EB3 had diminished because previous visa recapture legislation had cleared most cases up to 2006. The EB3-WW Cut off Date has only passed that in the last year. The majority of Philippines demand probably comes from Schedule A Nurses & Physical Therapists.

In general, I do think your conclusions are sound. Without more visas, it isn't a particularly rosy picture.

Both 2007 and 2008 PDs have very high overall numbers and no EB3 Cut Off Dates have moved through that period. By 2011 the number of PERM Certifications for all Countries other than India have approximately halved from that high. Eventually that might provide some relief.

India, on the other hand, with the exception of 2009, has maintained the 2007/8 numbers. 2011 exceeded them, but that was probably due to porting cases etc.

This has resulted in a gradual increase in the % of Certified PERM that India represents for each PD year.

2007 - 31.4%
2008 - 36.1%
2009 - 39.5%
2010 - 51.3%
2011 - 56.0%

I'm not saying that the waiting times have less effect for some Countries than others (it is more complicated than that), but the decline in other Countries PERM numbers is quite noticeable. Had it not happened, the situation would be impossible.

[Kanmani]

pdfeb09,
1. Yes. Attorneys are counting 180 days by excluding the RD . I have no comments for the rest of your doubts.

[veni001]

They can be found at http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm

I have already updated the figures in the various threads in the FACTS & DATA section.

The decisions actually cover up to about July 13, so slightly more than three quarters.

Certifications to date by fiscal quarter are as follows:

Q1 ----- 9,508
Q2 ----- 7,086
Q3 ---- 17,255
Q4 ----- 2,104

Total - 35,953

Q3 certifications were more than Q1 and Q2 combined.

India represented 55% of all Certifications.

The figures are a confirmation of the recent PERM factsheet.

Spec,

Thank you, USCIS Dashboard updated (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1) with June 2012 data.

[wavelet3000]

wavelet3000,

Welcome to the forum and thank you for such an interesting post.

Thanks. I've been following this forum for 1.5 years and could contain myself no longer. :cool:



A few thoughts came to mind that you may wish to incorporate, or think about.

8k for porting would indicate 16k I-485. That is probably too high, despite CO's comments.

If the figure were to include cases denied at I-140, duplicate cases between spouses etc and porting it may not be unreasonable.

I just wanted to get a round number.



I think it is fine to ignore NIW, but you have not mentioned a far larger group outside the PERM system.

Schedule A workers also do not require a PERM and the numbers are not insubstantial. Until recently, approvals in EB3 had diminished because previous visa recapture legislation had cleared most cases up to 2006. The EB3-WW Cut off Date has only passed that in the last year. The majority of Philippines demand probably comes from Schedule A Nurses & Physical Therapists.

I didn't know of Schedule A workers. Is there a way to estimate number of those aside from DOS demand data? :confused:



In general, I do think your conclusions are sound. Without more visas, it isn't a particularly rosy picture.

Both 2007 and 2008 PDs have very high overall numbers and no EB3 Cut Off Dates have moved through that period. By 2011 the number of PERM Certifications for all Countries other than India have approximately halved from that high. Eventually that might provide some relief.

India, on the other hand, with the exception of 2009, has maintained the 2007/8 numbers. 2011 exceeded them, but that was probably due to porting cases etc.

This has resulted in a gradual increase in the % of Certified PERM that India represents for each PD year.

2007 - 31.4%
2008 - 36.1%
2009 - 39.5%
2010 - 51.3%
2011 - 56.0%

I'm not saying that the waiting times have less effect for some Countries than others (it is more complicated than that), but the decline in other Countries PERM numbers is quite noticeable. Had it not happened, the situation would be impossible.

I would be interesting to try to forecast PERM demand numbers for I, C, RoW, M and P based on macro factors and H1B stats to see where these are heading long-term and why. :confused:

[jackbrown_890]

some guy on Trackitt reported today he received GC approval email..he is eb2 I - PD april 2010 - does anyone know this guy personally? just to confirm if he/she is not joking or may be he/she probably received EAD approval notice and is confusing it with 485 approval?
link: http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1065840081/am-i-greened

[chengisk]

some guy on Trackitt reported today he received GC approval email..he is eb2 I - PD april 2010 - does anyone know this guy personally? just to confirm if he/she is not joking or may be he/she probably received EAD approval notice and is confusing it with 485 approval?
link: http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1065840081/am-i-greened

There have been odd reports of such happenings in the past. Despite that this seems pretty strange. He seems to be very sure that it is his 485 as he already has his 2 year AP/EAD.

[vizcard]

First guess is it's a mistake in the system. No one can get greened if it's U. I'd find it hard to believe even if this person was ROW.

[qesehmk]

Hey Spec - why wouldn't the ROW EB2 (or even EB3) numbers here won't match with the level of approvals we are seeing for their respective categories.

e.g. for EB2 ROW these numbers would imply a demand of hardly 14-20K per year last 3-4 years. However in reality their approval levels are always around 30K.

PERM Breakdowns For PD (including Monthly Breakdown) for ROW, Mexico & Philippines

These are total PERM Certifications and therefore includes both EB2 and EB3 cases.

Note:- Extracting the Priority Date from the case number is not a perfect solution. Some cases will have actual PDs later than the figures might suggest. Why, is discussed in the forum. Hopefully, overall this will not make a significant difference to the data, but the occasional quirk can be evident.
276277278

Note:- I do not have a problem if portions of this data are reproduced on other websites, although no documents or images may be uploaded to another site.

However, it is a condition that, if the data is reproduced, a web link back to this page is included in any such post.

If a site forbids linking to this forum (for instance ****************.org) then no content may be reproduced.

[gs1968]

Spec
I agree with you on the Schedule A issue. There are a lot of folks from the Phillippines waiting on consular processing. The last visa recapture was for 50000 visas as part of the REAL ID ACT of 2005. A vast majority of these went to Schedule A workers
" Usage of 50,000 unused employment-based visas from 2003-This was a compromise between proponents who had earlier tried to include all employment visas which went unused between 2001 and 2004, and immigration restrictionists. They were used, mostly in fiscal year 2006, for Schedule A workers newly arrived mainly from the Philippines and India, rather than for adjustments of status cases like the American Competitiveness in the 21st Century Act."

Link-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/REAL_ID_Act

Also this Act is a classic example of what started as a platform for improving security for issuing Driver's licenses and ended up having a host of immigration reforms.Of course the most important of these was the abolition of annual limits for asylum seekers who used to wait for decades prior to that ( Wouldn't it be wonderful if annual limits for EB immigrants was also done away with?!)
I bring this up so as not to lose hope on HR 3012 as it could be added to some completely unrelated legislation before the year is out

BTW welcome to wavelet.His post is similar to a deranged rant of mine some weeks ago!

[mesan123]

Vizcard,

It is true...i know my collegaue whose priority date was Aug 2008 got greened in June 2012. Few lucky ones are getting greened even when the status is "U"



First guess is it's a mistake in the system. No one can get greened if it's U. I'd find it hard to believe even if this person was ROW.

[vizcard]

Vizcard,

It is true...i know my collegaue whose priority date was Aug 2008 got greened in June 2012. Few lucky ones are getting greened even when the status is "U"

I can somewhat understand a 2008 PD (Jan filer). He must have had a RD very early in Jan and got a RFE... am I right? I really can't see a March filer getting greened ahead of other Jan and Feb filers unless its some screw up.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I haven't been following the thread for a while so forgive me if its a repetitive question.

Is there a consensus / estimate on what might be the spillover number be for FY2013?

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

I haven't been following the thread for a while so forgive me if its a repetitive question.

Is there a consensus / estimate on what might be the spillover number be for FY2013?


I forgot to add...spillover estimate for EB2-I.

[mesan123]

No, he didnt get any RFE and his status changed from Acceptance to approval directly, he and his spouse both got there green cards same way. :)

So my guess is the system is screwed up...and lucky ones are getting greened


I can somewhat understand a 2008 PD (Jan filer). He must have had a RD very early in Jan and got a RFE... am I right? I really can't see a March filer getting greened ahead of other Jan and Feb filers unless its some screw up.

[qesehmk]

Mesan -

Don't mean to refute what you say below. Just would like to state my perspective:

80% of times these things are hoaxes - misunderstandings - typos. But 20% of times these are the super-lucky guys.

However in either case - 99.99% of the rest folks don't need to pay attention to such things since they have absolutely no bearing whatsoever when you are going to get greened. So if I was waiting on my GC - I would ignore this piece of information because it doesn't do any good to my situation. Right?


No, he didnt get any RFE and his status changed from Acceptance to approval directly, he and his spouse both got there green cards same way. :)

So my guess is the system is screwed up...and lucky ones are getting greened

[iamdeb]

Dear Friends,

I have approved I140 with PD May 2011.I am on my 6th yr H1.Recently I got my H1B extension for 3 more years based on my approved I140.
I would like to know my options(provided my I140 is not revoked)

If my switch my employer and the new employer doesn't start GC processing soon, what will happen to my H1b Status? Will I be able to stay on my newly acquired 3 yr extended H1?So will my H1B valid till 2015 without my GC re-starting with the new company?

Also,I would like to know my options in case my I140 is revoked by my employer.Does my 3 yr H1b Extension become invalid and I become out of status?

Sorry to barge into this thread.However since I don't have the luxury of EAD or AC-21 this forum is my best hope for insightful,accurate advice.

Thanks!

Deb

[Spectator]

Hey Spec - why wouldn't the ROW EB2 (or even EB3) numbers here won't match with the level of approvals we are seeing for their respective categories.

e.g. for EB2 ROW these numbers would imply a demand of hardly 14-20K per year last 3-4 years. However in reality their approval levels are always around 30K.Q,

It is something I have noticed as well and commented on a few times. I agree it looks very odd and I don't have a definitive answer. I assure you that the PERM figures are correct.

Here's some ideas to mull over. I am not saying they account for everything, but some may have an effect.

a) There seems to be quite a large working backlog for EB2-WW cases, so the time for changes to become apparent is quite large. If this is true, then eventually we will see the EB2-WW numbers fall, but I don't know when.

It is for this reason that, although up to 8k EB2-WW cases may flow through to FY2013, I am not saying that they will necessarily use any of the available spillover to EB2 i.e. a reduction in underlying cases will at least balance the extra numbers from FY2012. I have no idea if this is correct. Clearly, any recent PERM approvals for EB3 are not going to have a very big effect when approvals still have a PD of 2006.

b) I did notice that EB2-Philippines approvals increased by 50% in FY2011. Although the numbers aren't large, it suggests that more Schedule A cases are being approved in EB2. These are outside the PERM base.

NIW is also outside PERM, but I don't believe this is a large factor.

c) I have to have suspicions that large sections of WW no longer use EB3 and the % of EB2 cases has risen. It is impossible to test, since EB3 Cut Off Dates are still back in 2006 and the apparent change did not begin until post 2008 at least. If correct, as I have mentioned before, this could be good news for EB3 eventually, although it is still several years away.

EB3-Mexico and EB3-ROW, at least, should exhaust the current backlog sometime during FY2013. Depending on how far CO pushes the dates beyond July 2007, we may get a glimpse of things to come. Unfortunately, the higher number of CP cases in EB3 and the aftermath of this year's debacle may conspire to limit the forward movement.

I would be interested to hear your thoughts.

[Spectator]

I have updated my analysis (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Determination-Data-Analysis) of the PWD for FY2012.

Very similar to Q1-2 breakdown.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Dear Friends,

I have approved I140 with PD May 2011.I am on my 6th yr H1.Recently I got my H1B extension for 3 more years based on my approved I140.
I would like to know my options(provided my I140 is not revoked)

If my switch my employer and the new employer doesn't start GC processing soon, what will happen to my H1b Status? Will I be able to stay on my newly acquired 3 yr extended H1?So will my H1B valid till 2015 without my GC re-starting with the new company?
Does not affect H1B status. Your 3 years is still valid. Of course, your new employer needs to transfer your H1B onto their rolls (not sure of the exact lingo, I know a I179 is involved), but you do not need to get it re-stamped at a consulate.


Also,I would like to know my options in case my I140 is revoked by my employer.Does my 3 yr H1b Extension become invalid and I become out of status?
Not affected. If your I140 is revoked the only effect is that you can't port your old PD to your new I140 application with the second employer. To be clear, regardless of whether your old employer revokes your I140, you would still apply for PERM and I140 with your new employer. The only difference is, if they revoke the old I140, you can't port the date and your new PERM date will become your new PD instead of your existing PD.

[justvisiting]

It's helpful to review the ways you can file an I-140 without filing a PERM

-N.I.W. - erratic, unclear guidelines.
-Schedule A Group I - usually EB-3, but if applicants have been waiting abroad for a long time, they may have figured out a way to upgrade to EB-2 (by obtaining a masters in nursing/PT and adjusting the job requirements)
-Schedule A Group II - this is rarely used becuase it is so similar to EB-1A, but in the end the "thershold" is lower you only need to satisfy 2 criteria vs. the 3 criteria needed for EB-1A.
-Physician N.I.W. - 5 years in an underserved area, but for MDs doing already 3 years in a J-1 waiver, doing two more may be an attractive way of avoiding PERM altogether.


Q,

It is something I have noticed as well and commented on a few times. I agree it looks very odd and I don't have a definitive answer. I assure you that the PERM figures are correct.

Here's some ideas to mull over. I am not saying they account for everything, but some may have an effect.

a) There seems to be quite a large working backlog for EB2-WW cases, so the time for changes to become apparent is quite large. If this is true, then eventually we will see the EB2-WW numbers fall, but I don't know when.

It is for this reason that, although up to 8k EB2-WW cases may flow through to FY2013, I am not saying that they will necessarily use any of the available spillover to EB2 i.e. a reduction in underlying cases will at least balance the extra numbers from FY2012. I have no idea if this is correct. Clearly, any recent PERM approvals for EB3 are not going to have a very big effect when approvals still have a PD of 2006.

b) I did notice that EB2-Philippines approvals increased by 50% in FY2011. Although the numbers aren't large, it suggests that more Schedule A cases are being approved in EB2. These are outside the PERM base.

NIW is also outside PERM, but I don't believe this is a large factor.

c) I have to have suspicions that large sections of WW no longer use EB3 and the % of EB2 cases has risen. It is impossible to test, since EB3 Cut Off Dates are still back in 2006 and the apparent change did not begin until post 2008 at least. If correct, as I have mentioned before, this could be good news for EB3 eventually, although it is still several years away.

EB3-Mexico and EB3-ROW, at least, should exhaust the current backlog sometime during FY2013. Depending on how far CO pushes the dates beyond July 2007, we may get a glimpse of things to come. Unfortunately, the higher number of CP cases in EB3 and the aftermath of this year's debacle may conspire to limit the forward movement.

I would be interested to hear your thoughts.

[mesan123]

Q, i didnt post this message for People waiting for GC's that they also can get greened :( ..just was answering vizard post that these kind of weird things also happen with USCIS nothing else




Mesan -

Don't mean to refute what you say below. Just would like to state my perspective:

80% of times these things are hoaxes - misunderstandings - typos. But 20% of times these are the super-lucky guys.

However in either case - 99.99% of the rest folks don't need to pay attention to such things since they have absolutely no bearing whatsoever when you are going to get greened. So if I was waiting on my GC - I would ignore this piece of information because it doesn't do any good to my situation. Right?

[GhostWriter]

He has updated his thread (at the link below) with the post that everything seems fine and the case is approved. Tracking a random guy on trackitt and trying to fit a curve through one data point seems to be the only hope left for EB2-I !!!. He has also made a prediction about dates in his post, let us hope his ability matches his luck :)



some guy on Trackitt reported today he received GC approval email..he is eb2 I - PD april 2010 - does anyone know this guy personally? just to confirm if he/she is not joking or may be he/she probably received EAD approval notice and is confusing it with 485 approval?
link: http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1065840081/am-i-greened

[qesehmk]

Spec - i must say - i am stumped there. NIW Schedule A etc all doesn't seem large enough. There are two-three other possibilities in my mind. I checked one and ruled out.

They are:

1. EB3 -> EB2 porting within WW. I actually looked through data and didn't find any significant reduction in EB3WW due to porting. So this factor is absent.
2. EB2ROW may have higher dependent ratio and higher approval ratio for 140 and 485. this we can possibly test with trackitt data but stil is not sufficient.
3. EB2ROW demand itself may actually be less but EB2ROW numbers could be used towards FB demand. This is purely speculation and I am trying to see if this could be true. Cursory look doesn't seem to indicate that is true.

So in the end - I am stumped!!


Q,

It is something I have noticed as well and commented on a few times. I agree it looks very odd and I don't have a definitive answer. I assure you that the PERM figures are correct.

Here's some ideas to mull over. I am not saying they account for everything, but some may have an effect.

a) There seems to be quite a large working backlog for EB2-WW cases, so the time for changes to become apparent is quite large. If this is true, then eventually we will see the EB2-WW numbers fall, but I don't know when.

It is for this reason that, although up to 8k EB2-WW cases may flow through to FY2013, I am not saying that they will necessarily use any of the available spillover to EB2 i.e. a reduction in underlying cases will at least balance the extra numbers from FY2012. I have no idea if this is correct. Clearly, any recent PERM approvals for EB3 are not going to have a very big effect when approvals still have a PD of 2006.

b) I did notice that EB2-Philippines approvals increased by 50% in FY2011. Although the numbers aren't large, it suggests that more Schedule A cases are being approved in EB2. These are outside the PERM base.

NIW is also outside PERM, but I don't believe this is a large factor.

c) I have to have suspicions that large sections of WW no longer use EB3 and the % of EB2 cases has risen. It is impossible to test, since EB3 Cut Off Dates are still back in 2006 and the apparent change did not begin until post 2008 at least. If correct, as I have mentioned before, this could be good news for EB3 eventually, although it is still several years away.

EB3-Mexico and EB3-ROW, at least, should exhaust the current backlog sometime during FY2013. Depending on how far CO pushes the dates beyond July 2007, we may get a glimpse of things to come. Unfortunately, the higher number of CP cases in EB3 and the aftermath of this year's debacle may conspire to limit the forward movement.

I would be interested to hear your thoughts.


It's helpful to review the ways you can file an I-140 without filing a PERM

-N.I.W. - erratic, unclear guidelines.
-Schedule A Group I - usually EB-3, but if applicants have been waiting abroad for a long time, they may have figured out a way to upgrade to EB-2 (by obtaining a masters in nursing/PT and adjusting the job requirements)
-Schedule A Group II - this is rarely used becuase it is so similar to EB-1A, but in the end the "thershold" is lower you only need to satisfy 2 criteria vs. the 3 criteria needed for EB-1A.
-Physician N.I.W. - 5 years in an underserved area, but for MDs doing already 3 years in a J-1 waiver, doing two more may be an attractive way of avoiding PERM altogether.
JV - thanks. Good info really. It might be worthwhile if you could someday put some numbers there.

Q, i didnt post this message for People waiting for GC's that they also can get greened :( ..just was answering vizard post that these kind of weird things also happen with USCIS nothing else
mesan - weird things sure do happen! totally agree.

[Spectator]

Spec - i must say - i am stumped there. NIW Schedule A etc all doesn't seem large enough. There are two-three other possibilities in my mind. I checked one and ruled out.

They are:

1. EB3 -> EB2 porting within WW. I actually looked through data and didn't find any significant reduction in EB3WW due to porting. So this factor is absent.
2. EB2ROW may have higher dependent ratio and higher approval ratio for 140 and 485. this we can possibly test with trackitt data but stil is not sufficient.
3. EB2ROW demand itself may actually be less but EB2ROW numbers could be used towards FB demand. This is purely speculation and I am trying to see if this could be true. Cursory look doesn't seem to indicate that is true.

So in the end - I am stumped!!Q,

Thanks for your thoughts - all good ones which have some merit.

1. Clearly there is some WW porting. I agree the numbers aren't really good enough to put even a rough figure on it.

2. I think that may also be possible. The breakdown of approvals for many Countries within WW is slanted towards EB1 / EB2. That in turn may mean they are slightly older and have more chance to have dependents. Unlike both China and India, the student numbers in the USA are also relatively small.

3. I discount this at the moment.

It may be that several small effects all add up, or there is something that neither of us have taken into account.

Even with only about 18.5k PERM, it is still possible to get into the 30's if some of the factors we have discussed are adding to the numbers.

I guess, either way, we would have to see a drop in the next 2 years if the the numbers are going to fall. The problems of this year (FY2012) mean we now probably won't see the real effect in FY2013. That may mean a frustratingly long wait to answer the question.

[iamdeb]

Appreciate your prompt response Pedro!
So my approved I140 gives me fresh lease of 3 years on my H1b and I can work on H1B till 2015 with any employer willing to transfer my H1B.
I just have to start the GC process again within next 2 year and hope to port my old PD provided it hasn't been revoked.

[kd2008]

Listing approvals by FY.

2007 26,680
2008 28,368
2009 15,728
2010 37,173
2011 25,133
2012 13,872 (Q1 to Q3)

[Spectator]

Listing approvals by FY.

2007 26,680
2008 28,368
2009 15,728
2010 37,173
2011 25,133
2012 13,872 (Q1 to Q3)kd,

I hope you don’t mind me moving your post to the forum for a discussion.

I believe your figures relate to approvals for M-P-ROW in a given FY, although your 2007 figure appears to be a bit apples to oranges because it is only for PD 2007 cases.

On that basis, I have marginally different numbers:

FY2007 - 53,693 (of which 26,680 are PD2007)
FY2008 - 29,308
FY2009 - 16,003
FY2010 - 37,255
FY2011 - 25,142
FY2012 - 13,875 (Q1 to Q3)

I chose not to use FY periods for a few reasons.

a) Most importantly, Cut Off Dates move by Calendar Year and Month. It can take several FY for a CY to become complete.

b) Numbers approved in a FY cover several PD years. The number relating to the same FY PD has been quite variable.

c) Numbers approved in a FY reflect DOL processing efficiency and other priorities such as backlog reduction (as evidenced by FY2009/10).

In FY2009, less than 23% of approvals were actually for cases submitted in FY2009. In fact, only 18 cases (of 29,502) had a PD in 2009 itself (8 for M-P-ROW).

This “lumpiness” could have been a factor in M-P-ROW numbers, but the situation has stabilized since that time. In FY2011, about 61% of M-P-ROW cases approved were also received in FY2011. It is never going to be 100% because of processing times.

Over time the following % in M-P-ROW received in a FY were also approved in the same FY.

FY2007 - 73.6%
FY2008 - 76.4%
FY2009 - 22.6%
FY2010 - 31.7%
FY2011 - 61.0%
FY2012 - 55.5% (to Q3)

For approvals for all Countries, the % are:

FY2007 – 75.4%
FY2008 – 77.2%
FY2009 - 22.9%
FY2010 - 37.2%
FY2011 - 68.1%
FY2012 - 59.1% (to Q3)

[Jonty Rhodes]

Appreciate your prompt response Pedro!
So my approved I140 gives me fresh lease of 3 years on my H1b and I can work on H1B till 2015 with any employer willing to transfer my H1B.
I just have to start the GC process again within next 2 year and hope to port my old PD provided it hasn't been revoked.

Everything that has been said so far is true. You can transfer H1B if your new employer is willing to do that which will be valid for 3 years. I am assuming that you are expecting your new employer to file your GC under EB2. In that case, you have to have PERM and I-140 filed again with a new employer regardless of your old I-140 is revoked or not by your previous employer.

This has been discussed before when I asked a similar question. So let me take it a step further by giving you some more details about retention of PD on your old I-140.

The USCIS regulations at 8 CFR 204.5(e) provides for the retention of a previously established priority date under the circumstances described below:

(e) Retention of section 203(b) (1), (2), or (3) priority date.

A petition approved on behalf of an alien under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act accords the alien the priority date of the approved petition for any subsequently filed petition for any classification under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act for which the alien may qualify. In the event that the alien is the beneficiary of multiple petitions under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act, the alien shall be entitled to the earliest priority date. A petition revoked under sections 204(e) or 205 of the Act will not confer a priority date, nor will any priority date be established as a result of a denied petition. A priority date is not transferable to another alien.

Now you may ask that what if your previous employer withdraws the approved I-140 petition and the USCIS then revokes it?

In this case, unless the USCIS revokes the petition for fraud or misrepresentation, you get to keep the priority date even if it is revoked for any other reason.

The USCIS, in the Adjudicator's Field Manual, at Chapter 22.2(b)(5)(A)(5), makes it clear that only a revocation based on a finding of fraud or misrepresentation results in a loss of the priority date:

(A) Determining the Priority Date.

In general, if a petition is supported by an individual labor certification issued by DOL, the priority date is the earliest date upon which the labor certification application was filed with DOL. In those cases where the alien’s priority date is established by the filing of the labor certification, once the alien’s Form I-140 petition has been approved, the alien beneficiary retains his or her priority date as established by the filing of the labor certification for any future Form I-140 petitions, unless the previously approved Form I-140 petition has been revoked because of fraud or willful misrepresentation. This includes cases where a change of employer has occurred; however, the new employer must obtain a new labor certification if the classification requested requires a labor certification.

Here is the link.

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/AFM/HTML/AFM/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-15.html

Look for Chapter 22 and the related provisions that I mentioned here.

[justvisiting]

Also, the definition of "fraud or willful misrepresentation" is quite stringent. USCIS or DOS (if it's a C.P. case) have to prove this by clear and convincing evidence. On the other hand, they can revoke a petition based on more likely than not for pretty much any reason they want.

The practical meaning of this is that USCIS/DOS, when suspecting fraud, usually revoke the petition based on some other minor technical excuse. It is easier and less likely to be challenged in court, and the beneficiary gets to keep his PD.



Everything that has been said so far is true. You can transfer H1B if your new employer is willing to do that which will be valid for 3 years. I am assuming that you are expecting your new employer to file your GC under EB2. In that case, you have to have PERM and I-140 filed again with a new employer regardless of your old I-140 is revoked or not by your previous employer.

This has been discussed before when I asked a similar question. So let me take it a step further by giving you some more details about retention of PD on your old I-140.

The USCIS regulations at 8 CFR 204.5(e) provides for the retention of a previously established priority date under the circumstances described below:

(e) Retention of section 203(b) (1), (2), or (3) priority date.

A petition approved on behalf of an alien under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act accords the alien the priority date of the approved petition for any subsequently filed petition for any classification under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act for which the alien may qualify. In the event that the alien is the beneficiary of multiple petitions under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act, the alien shall be entitled to the earliest priority date. A petition revoked under sections 204(e) or 205 of the Act will not confer a priority date, nor will any priority date be established as a result of a denied petition. A priority date is not transferable to another alien.

Now you may ask that what if your previous employer withdraws the approved I-140 petition and the USCIS then revokes it?

In this case, unless the USCIS revokes the petition for fraud or misrepresentation, you get to keep the priority date even if it is revoked for any other reason.

The USCIS, in the Adjudicator's Field Manual, at Chapter 22.2(b)(5)(A)(5), makes it clear that only a revocation based on a finding of fraud or misrepresentation results in a loss of the priority date:

(A) Determining the Priority Date.

In general, if a petition is supported by an individual labor certification issued by DOL, the priority date is the earliest date upon which the labor certification application was filed with DOL. In those cases where the alien’s priority date is established by the filing of the labor certification, once the alien’s Form I-140 petition has been approved, the alien beneficiary retains his or her priority date as established by the filing of the labor certification for any future Form I-140 petitions, unless the previously approved Form I-140 petition has been revoked because of fraud or willful misrepresentation. This includes cases where a change of employer has occurred; however, the new employer must obtain a new labor certification if the classification requested requires a labor certification.

Here is the link.

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/AFM/HTML/AFM/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-15.html

Look for Chapter 22 and the related provisions that I mentioned here.

[Kanmani]

USCIS Performance Data ending June 2012 (3rd Qtr) is available now .....http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all-form-types-performance-data_fy2012_qtr3.pdf

EB I-485 Approvals -- 104,274
I-140 Immigrant Worke -- 51,964

[Spectator]

USCIS Performance Data ending June 2012 (3rd Qtr) is available now .....http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all-form-types-performance-data_fy2012_qtr3.pdf

EB I-485 Approvals -- 104,274
I-140 Immigrant Worke -- 51,964Thanks Kanmani.

[lft2hou]

The I-485 Employment Adjustment data shows "Receipts - 124,027" and "Approvals - 104,274" from Oct 2011 to June 2012.
Does this number - 19,753 (Receipts - Approvals) include all the EB2 - India I-485 applications USCIS received before the EB2-India dates retrogressed? Meaning, most EB2-India applicants with PDs upto 1st May 2010?

Can one of the gurus educate me on this?

[Spectator]

The I-485 Employment Adjustment data shows "Receipts - 124,027" and "Approvals - 104,274" from Oct 2011 to June 2012.
Does this number - 19,753 (Receipts - Approvals) include all the EB2 - India I-485 applications USCIS received before the EB2-India dates retrogressed? Meaning, most EB2-India applicants with PDs upto 1st May 2010?

Can one of the gurus educate me on this?lft2hou,

Yes it should include all new EB2-I receipts before it became Unavailable in June.

You can't just deduct Approvals from Receipts to arrive at a number.

The approvals only represent AOS cases and exclude CP cases. A figure of 104k probably translates to 115-120k total approvals.

Compared to FY2011 Receipts for I-485 Employment Cases for the same period are nearly 68k higher. Not all that increase necessarily relates to EB2-IC receipts.

[qesehmk]

lfthou - these numbers are quite difficult to disset. These numbers came from whoever was current at that point of time. For the categories that are current - EB1 and EB2ROW teh demand is pretty much rolling demand since they don't have waiting time. However for EB2I - these applications are post Jul 2007 which is when the last date was. Since the EB2I date moved upto May 2010 and then retreated back .... it means all those numbers include

EB1 3/4th 2012 demand
EB2 ROW 3/4th 2012 demand
EB3 partial demand (whjatever the date movement was)
AND
EB2IC Jul 2007-May 2010 demand (@90% we should assume since 10% people may not be able to file for whatever reason).

Makes sense?

p.s. a rough deconstruct could look like as follows:

Total - 124K
EB1 - 3/4* 40K (assuming they will fully utilize quota) = 30K
EB2ROW - 3/4*40K ( assuming they will fully utilize quota) = 30K
EB3 - 10-20K (corresponding to date movement) = 15K
EB4 - 3/4*9.5K = 7K
EB5 - 3/4*6K = 4K

subtotal ex EB2IC = 86K

So Eb2IC = 40K.

This implies 40K EB2IC demand bet jul 2007 and May 2010 i.e. 32 months.

Not bad at all ... that's only 1.2K per month. Even if you assume 20% is left out i.e. 1.5K is true demand.... this bodes very well for EB2IC who should see approvals in 3-4 years max since PD as opposed to 5 years norm.

Spec - other gurus tear this apart!!



The I-485 Employment Adjustment data shows "Receipts - 124,027" and "Approvals - 104,274" from Oct 2011 to June 2012.
Does this number - 19,753 (Receipts - Approvals) include all the EB2 - India I-485 applications USCIS received before the EB2-India dates retrogressed? Meaning, most EB2-India applicants with PDs upto 1st May 2010?

Can one of the gurus educate me on this?

[Spectator]

lfthou - these numbers are quite difficult to disset. These numbers came from whoever was current at that point of time. For the categories that are current - EB1 and EB2ROW teh demand is pretty much rolling demand since they don't have waiting time. However for EB2I - these applications are post Jul 2007 which is when the last date was. Since the EB2I date moved upto May 2010 and then retreated back .... it means all those numbers include

EB1 3/4th 2012 demand
EB2 ROW 3/4th 2012 demand
EB3 partial demand (whjatever the date movement was)
AND
EB2IC Jul 2007-May 2010 demand (@90% we should assume since 10% people may not be able to file for whatever reason).

Makes sense?

p.s. a rough deconstruct could look like as follows:

Total - 124K
EB1 - 3/4* 40K (assuming they will fully utilize quota) = 30K
EB2ROW - 3/4*40K ( assuming they will fully utilize quota) = 30K
EB3 - 10-20K (corresponding to date movement) = 15K
EB4 - 3/4*9.5K = 7K
EB5 - 3/4*6K = 4K

subtotal ex EB2IC = 86K

So Eb2IC = 40K.

This implies 40K EB2IC demand bet jul 2007 and May 2010 i.e. 32 months.

Not bad at all ... that's only 1.2K per month. Even if you assume 20% is left out i.e. 1.5K is true demand.... this bodes very well for EB2IC who should see approvals in 3-4 years max since PD as opposed to 5 years norm.

Spec - other gurus tear this apart!!Q,

An initial thought is that since EB3 only moved through Cut Off Dates that were Current in July 2007, relatively few new receipts would be generated for EB3.

EB2-ROW (I think you are using it for M-P-ROW) don't have access to all 40k so their share might be about 26k rather than 30k if they were going to hit the max.

That would increase EB2-IC to potentially 55-60k which appears to be about right. It is difficult to tell. Remember a good number of those EB2-IC receipts have also been approved in FY2012.

[Kanmani]

Q, this 40k IC receipts contradicts your claim of 30k sofad in FY2012. We have approximately 35K pre-adjudicated under IC queue asper last demand data released.

Spec, do you think the IC receipts should be as high as 60-65K or the sofad was low around 20K ? Which one is correct?

[qesehmk]

Spec - yes that is possible. EB3ROW receipts could be lower than that. But it could also be higher than that ... since for a backlogged category you can expect them to move at least quota worth dates advance? right ?


Q,

An initial thought is that since EB3 only moved through Cut Off Dates that were Current in July 2007, relatively few new receipts would be generated for EB3.

EB2-ROW (I think you are using it for M-P-ROW) don't have access to all 40k so their share might be about 26k rather than 30k if they were going to hit the max.

That would increase EB2-IC to potentially 55-60k which appears to be about right. It is difficult to tell. Remember a good number of those EB2-IC receipts have also been approved in FY2012.


Q, this 40k IC receipts contradicts your claim of 30k sofad in FY2012. We have approximately 35K pre-adjudicated under IC queue asper last demand data released.

Spec, do you think the IC receipts should be as high as 60-65K or the sofad was low around 20K ? Which one is correct?


Kanmani - receipts and SOFAD are two different things. So the receipts by themselves won't contradict the claim. However if and when the claim is contradicted .. I don't have a problem since I never am attached to a number anyway. With better information we should always be open to change our minds :)

[GhostWriter]

The approvals will also include I-485s filed in prior years where as receipts are only for this year. For first two rows Asylee and Refugee adjustment, approvals are more than receipts.
Another reason why the difference will not represent the increase in inventory.


The I-485 Employment Adjustment data shows "Receipts - 124,027" and "Approvals - 104,274" from Oct 2011 to June 2012.
Does this number - 19,753 (Receipts - Approvals) include all the EB2 - India I-485 applications USCIS received before the EB2-India dates retrogressed? Meaning, most EB2-India applicants with PDs upto 1st May 2010?

Can one of the gurus educate me on this?


lft2hou,

Yes it should include all new EB2-I receipts before it became Unavailable in June.

You can't just deduct Approvals from Receipts to arrive at a number.

[lft2hou]

Spec and Q, thanks for your responses.

I wasn't thinking about the pending I-485 applications from all the previous years i.e. prior to Oct 2011.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani - receipts and SOFAD are two different things. So the receipts by themselves won't contradict the claim. However if and when the claim is contradicted .. I don't have a problem since I never am attached to a number anyway. With better information we should always be open to change our minds :)

Q, I am just a spectator in the number game . I was active in number analysis before joining this forum, ( never heard about I V and unfortunate enough to lose Q/S/V/T/N s' contributions there). You guys made me stop hurting numbers. They are fine now .

[GhostWriter]

Q, according to the May-2012 inventory EB2-IC has roughly 47K cases for 2007-2010, you can reduce 1K for Jan-June 2007 cases and you get 46K for July 2007 onwards.

Assume 25K approvals for EB2-IC (using Spec's older post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=29386#post29386)).

Use the fact that the Oct-2011 inventory report had 11.5K cases for 2006 and 2007 for EB2-IC, assuming all of them were approved and some more, say 12K (11.5K + 0.5K) we get remaining 13K approvals for EB2-IC from I-485 receipts in 2012.

So total 2012 EB2-IC I-485 receipts = I-485 inventory (July2007-May2010) + approvals for 2012 cases = 46K + 13K = 59K.

Also 59K / 32 months = 1.8K/month (we are not adding PWMBs but also not subtracting porters)

2008 PDs on average already crossed the 4 year max mark in June-2012 and 2009 PDs will cross that mark in summer 2013. But to be fair many 2008 PDs did get approved in 4 years in 2012. The remainder will bring the average to 5 :)




So Eb2IC = 40K.

This implies 40K EB2IC demand bet jul 2007 and May 2010 i.e. 32 months.

Not bad at all ... that's only 1.2K per month. Even if you assume 20% is left out i.e. 1.5K is true demand.... this bodes very well for EB2IC who should see approvals in 3-4 years max since PD as opposed to 5 years norm.

Spec - other gurus tear this apart!!

[Spectator]

Q, I am just a spectator in the number game . I was active in number analysis before joining this forum, ( never heard about I V and unfortunate enough to lose Q/S/V/T/N s' contributions there). You guys made me stop hurting numbers. They are fine now .Kanmani,

Your comment cracked me up! Sometimes I feel the same way. You are just bending them to your will!

Don't stop the torture, because you often bring quite insightful viewpoints to the forum.

I agree with your previous comment that the numbers are very much interrelated and a change in one has an impact on others. I couldn't concisely answer your question, but I certainly don't think SOFAD is anywhere as low as 20k. I suspect it is a minimum of 25k, but it somewhat depends on how many visas EB2-WW have used.

PS I never posted in that other forum, so you didn't miss anything from me. I do wish Teddy posted here more often - I miss his contributions.

[qesehmk]

Kanmani - Spec is right. The hurts stops two ways - 1) You gain better clarity and it calms your nerves. 2) You give and say whatever!!

Sometimes - with all the number crunching -- I too feel like going #2.. An excellent example is the brief discussion I had with Spec a few posts above about EB2ROW numbers. But we plough on with what we know and stay flexible to admit that we may be wrong and there are unknown unknowns out there.

Q, I am just a spectator in the number game . I was active in number analysis before joining this forum, ( never heard about I V and unfortunate enough to lose Q/S/V/T/N s' contributions there). You guys made me stop hurting numbers. They are fine now .


....So total 2012 EB2-IC I-485 receipts = I-485 inventory (July2007-May2010) + approvals for 2012 cases = 46K + 13K = 59K.

Ghost - thanks. 59K could very well be the number but for a different reason as laid out below.

To me the formula above needs to be as follows:

total 2012 EB2-IC I-485 receipts = I-485 inventory (July2007-May2010) + "Documentarily NOT qualified EB2IC cases" - Oct 2011 EB2IC inventory + total projected approvals for 2012 cases * 3/4 = 47K + ? - 11K + 25K * 3/4 ( assuming 25K SOFAD. You can plug in whatever you believe in).
= 45K + ? = 45K + 15K (if assumed 25% of total cases are NOT yet documentarily qualified). = 60K

What do you think ? Does this make sense?

[Kanmani]

Thanks Spec and Q. I am fortunate to follow your numbers and predictions.

As a beginner in the early days, I thought you guys are way too pessimistic ( still continues occasionally) but within a year i realized that you have a different but strong pattern in chasing the numbers which turns out to be the reality.

[GhostWriter]

Q, few things
1. If we are using I-485 inventory then we don't need to account for cases that are not yet documentarily qualified. If we used the demand data then we would have to.

2. There won't be any I-485 receipts for EB2-IC in Q4 as the category was unavailable. So we don't need the 3/4 factor. (Basically all the recipts for EB2-IC have been counted in the I-485 report already. )

3. The Oct 2011 EB2IC inventory is already incorporated in approvals for 2012 cases. So approvals for 2012 cases = Total approvals (or SOFAD) - EB2-IC inventory (2006 & 2007)

So the calculation becomes
I-485 inventory (July2007-May2010) + Approvals for 2012 cases = 46K + (25K - 12K) = 59K (~60K)

What do you say ?
There certainly are other fine tunings that can be done - I only took 2006 & 2007 Oct-2011 inventory numbers, there would have been some approvals for prior years and not all of 2006 and 2007 from OCt-2011 inventory would have been approved. But the two are small and in opposite directions. Roughly i would say 60K I-485 EB2-IC receipts for FY-2012 should be a reasonable estimate.

The question i have for you, Spec and others is that if EB2-IC receipts were 60K that gives receipts for rest of EB as 64K (124K - 60K). If we scale this up for full year we get 85K (64*4/3) for rest of EB. Actually EB-ROW has also been at 2009 for Q4 so they wont have any receipts and the number probably will be between 75K-80K. How does this compare with EB (excluding EB2IC) for 2011 or 2010 ? Any ideas. This will be an important factor in determining SOFAD for 2013 for EB2-IC.




Ghost - thanks. 59K could very well be the number but for a different reason as laid out below.

To me the formula above needs to be as follows:

total 2012 EB2-IC I-485 receipts = I-485 inventory (July2007-May2010) + "Documentarily NOT qualified EB2IC cases" - Oct 2011 EB2IC inventory + total projected approvals for 2012 cases * 3/4 = 47K + ? - 11K + 25K * 3/4 ( assuming 25K SOFAD. You can plug in whatever you believe in).
= 45K + ? = 45K + 15K (if assumed 25% of total cases are NOT yet documentarily qualified). = 60K

What do you think ? Does this make sense?

[qesehmk]

Ghost I disagree that documentarily unqualified cases should be ignored. But if you ignore that then the number will actually go down according to my formula. Right?

The 3/4th factor is for approvals as opposed to receipts since I assumed 25K as full year number. If 25K is YTD through Q3 end then don't need that factor.

I am not sure I would agree w #3. That seems wrong too.

But regardless I think we can certainly agree that EB2IC receipts were between 45-60K. Right? Over ~32 months that is 1.8K max which is way less than 2.8-3K normal demand.

Now if you think about EB2ROW demand - it must follow the same destruction as EB2IC. So if EB2IC is seeing 2/3 of normal demand then EB2ROWMP should also see equivalent reduction. Generally EB2IC normal demand is quite same as EB2IC demand. So 22-25K max receipts for EB2ROWMP should be expected. However last year 10K EB2ROWMP were pending on 1st Oct 2011. I do not believe drastic reduction in that number given that even EB2ROW requires due diligence.

So all in all I absolutely would expect EB2ROW to provide at least 4K of SOFAD (excluding the ~5K extra from FB).

ps. - May leave for labor day weekend early. in that case I wish you all a happy safe weekend!! Enjoy the end of Summer!


Q, few things
1. If we are using I-485 inventory then we don't need to account for cases that are not yet documentarily qualified. If we used the demand data then we would have to.

2. There won't be any I-485 receipts for EB2-IC in Q4 as the category was unavailable. So we don't need the 3/4 factor. (Basically all the recipts for EB2-IC have been counted in the I-485 report already. )

3. The Oct 2011 EB2IC inventory is already incorporated in approvals for 2012 cases. So approvals for 2012 cases = Total approvals (or SOFAD) - EB2-IC inventory (2006 & 2007)

So the calculation becomes
I-485 inventory (July2007-May2010) + Approvals for 2012 cases = 46K + (25K - 12K) = 59K (~60K)

What do you say ?
There certainly are other fine tunings that can be done - I only took 2006 & 2007 Oct-2011 inventory numbers, there would have been some approvals for prior years and not all of 2006 and 2007 from OCt-2011 inventory would have been approved. But the two are small and in opposite directions. Roughly i would say 60K I-485 EB2-IC receipts for FY-2012 should be a reasonable estimate.

The question i have for you, Spec and others is that if EB2-IC receipts were 60K that gives receipts for rest of EB as 64K (124K - 60K). If we scale this up for full year we get 85K (64*4/3) for rest of EB. Actually EB-ROW has also been at 2009 for Q4 so they wont have any receipts and the number probably will be between 75K-80K. How does this compare with EB (excluding EB2IC) for 2011 or 2010 ? Any ideas. This will be an important factor in determining SOFAD for 2013 for EB2-IC.

[Spectator]

The question i have for you, Spec and others is that if EB2-IC receipts were 60K that gives receipts for rest of EB as 64K (124K - 60K). If we scale this up for full year we get 85K (64*4/3) for rest of EB. Actually EB-ROW has also been at 2009 for Q4 so they wont have any receipts and the number probably will be between 75K-80K. How does this compare with EB (excluding EB2IC) for 2011 or 2010 ? Any ideas. This will be an important factor in determining SOFAD for 2013 for EB2-IC.Ghost,

I don't have a direct answer, but perhaps the figures below might help you (the All Forms Data only started in FY2011, so there are no comparable figures for FY2010)

The figures are the cumulative EB I-485 receipts through the year i.e. Q2 figure also includes Q1 etc. The figures are for all Countries, including IC.

----- FY2011 -- FY2012 -- Difference
Q1 -- 19,656 --- 35,445 ---- 15,789
Q2 -- 36,492 --- 95,139 ---- 58,647
Q3 -- 56,163 -- 124,027 ---- 67,864
Q4 -- 78,302 -- ???????

I would be slightly worried if EB2-IC did not account for somewhere around 60k.

There will have been some increase in EB5. I don't think EB3 accounts for many as there are unlikely to be many PWMB for any of the EB3 Cut Off Dates. In any case, Year-On-Year the numbers should be comparable.

If EB4 is reasonably constant, and if the increase is not due to EB2-IC, then it would have to be for either EB1 or EB2-WW, both of which would not be good for SOFAD in FY2013. Since EB4 was low last year, possibly there may have been an increase this year - I have no idea.

Generally, the increase is consistent with how EB2-IC Cut Off Dates moved through the year.

The Q4 figures may be quite interesting. With EB2 essentially absent and EB3 not accounting for many, the figures may give some insight into the EB1 numbers, if we can net off EB4 and EB5 and make an estimate for EB3.

Edited to add:

I did a very quick and dirty analysis and came up with a figure of approaching 30k for EB2-WW for FY2011. That in turn would give about 61k for EB2-IC in FY2012 if EB2-WW were prorated accordingly. Bear in mind that is a very quick analysis and subject to a fair variance because of the number of assumptions used.

[GhostWriter]

1. The cases that are not pre-adjudicated are already counted in the inventory report. Why would we count them twice.

2. EB2-IC was unavailable in Q4 (July, Aug, Sep -2012). There would be no receipts and no approvals for EB2-IC in this period. So total FY2012 numbers (approvals or receipts) equal the corresponding numbers for first three quarters. Hence 3/4 is not required.

3. I realized that we are actually saying the same thing. I am using Approvals for 2012 cases which equals Total approvals (or SOFAD) - EB2-IC inventory (2006 & 2007 cases as per Oct-2011 inventory). So there is no disagreement here.

The only disagreement that remains then is item 1 i.e. the non pre-adjudicated cases. I am assuming by non documentarily qualified you are referring to cases not pre-adjudicated. There will be a small number of cases which will be received but not accepted but those should be negligible. Since you are using 20% for such cases i assumed you meant cases waiting to be pre-adjudicated. Those i think are already included in inventory report. We need a tie-breaker for this one :)

Overall my thinking was that any I-485 that is received either remains unapproved and goes to the inventory or is approved. The inventory report was as of May 3rd and the May Visa bulletin retrogressed the dates for EB2-IC to Aug-07. The only thing being counted twice would be the approvals (for PDs prior to Aug-07) that happened in May.
Adding a 5% tolerance to 60K, we should expect EB2-IC receipts to be between 57K-63K. 46K seems too low even for the lower limit.

Enjoy the labor day weekend.


Ghost I disagree that documentarily unqualified cases should be ignored. But if you ignore that then the number will actually go down according to my formula. Right?

The 3/4th factor is for approvals as opposed to receipts since I assumed 25K as full year number. If 25K is YTD through Q3 end then don't need that factor.

I am not sure I would agree w #3. That seems wrong too.

But regardless I think we can certainly agree that EB2IC receipts were between 45-60K. Right? Over ~32 months that is 1.8K max which is way less than 2.8-3K normal demand.

Now if you think about EB2ROW demand - it must follow the same destruction as EB2IC. So if EB2IC is seeing 2/3 of normal demand then EB2ROWMP should also see equivalent reduction. Generally EB2IC normal demand is quite same as EB2IC demand. So 22-25K max receipts for EB2ROWMP should be expected. However last year 10K EB2ROWMP were pending on 1st Oct 2011. I do not believe drastic reduction in that number given that even EB2ROW requires due diligence.

So all in all I absolutely would expect EB2ROW to provide at least 4K of SOFAD (excluding the ~5K extra from FB).

ps. - May leave for labor day weekend early. in that case I wish you all a happy safe weekend!! Enjoy the end of Summer!

[asankaran]

I have a quick question. Considering the fact that USCIS approvals till June was 104,274 and as Spec or someone mentioned that CP would around 15-16k, can we wish for around 10-15k of available visas for this month ? Is there a possibility that USCIS may waste those visas ?

I remember EB3 lost around 800-900 visas. Any thoughts ?

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Spec. The total 2011 number is helpful. I have following conclusions based on the Q3 2012 I-485 report and the 2011 number that you provided below. Would be good to know your thoughts.

- 78K for FY2011 would mostly be EB1 + EB2-ROW. In 2011 only EB2-IC PWMBs up to Apr-2007 could have filed which come to 1K based on PERM data in facts and data section. EB3 as you mentioned would be negligible as well.
The corresponding expected number for FY2012 for EB1 + EB2-ROW also comes out to be between 75-80K (assuming 60K receipts for EB2-IC, scaling up the remaining 64K to full year gives 84K, reducing a bit to account for the fact that EB2-ROW can not file in Q4 either). This implies that the receipts for EB1 + Eb2-ROW are in the same range for FY2011 and FY2012. More clarity will come with updated receipts for Q4.

- Positive side is we should be able to get at least the same spillover from EB1 in 2013 as in 2012 if the trend continues. You estimated 2012 spillover from EB1 to be roughly 6.5K. We should expect at least that or slightly higher. So a SOFAD of 10K or higher for just EB2-I. (This can take the EB2-I dates to at least May-2008).

- Same for EB2-ROW, if the trend continues EB2-ROW in 2013 will have 8-9K spare visas which will be enough to clear their backlog from 2012. So I would not expect them to use EB1-spillover, they will at-least break even.

- The final conclusion is on the negative side. Total EB1 + EB2-ROW quota is 74K. Total EB1 + EB2-ROW receipts of 70K+ (we can probably reduce 5K for EB4 from 75-80K) in 2011 and 2012 indicate very slow movement in EB2-IC in coming years if the trend continues in 2013 and beyond. The situation appears worse if you assume that 84K is the actual true demand for EB1+EB2-ROW for 2012 and not scale it down because EB2-ROW can't file I-485 due to its cut-off date.


Ghost,

I don't have a direct answer, but perhaps the figures below might help you (the All Forms Data only started in FY2011, so there are no comparable figures for FY2010)

The figures are the cumulative EB I-485 receipts through the year i.e. Q2 figure also includes Q1 etc. The figures are for all Countries, including IC.

----- FY2011 -- FY2012 -- Difference
Q1 -- 19,656 --- 35,445 ---- 15,789
Q2 -- 36,492 --- 95,139 ---- 58,647
Q3 -- 56,163 -- 124,027 ---- 67,864
Q4 -- 78,302 -- ???????

I would be slightly worried if EB2-IC did not account for somewhere around 60k.

The Q4 figures may be quite interesting. With EB2 essentially absent and EB3 not accounting for many, the figures may give some insight into the EB1 numbers, if we can net off EB4 and EB5 and make an estimate for EB3.

Edited to add:

I did a very quick and dirty analysis and came up with a figure of approaching 30k for EB2-WW for FY2011. That in turn would give about 61k for EB2-IC in FY2012 if EB2-WW were prorated accordingly. Bear in mind that is a very quick analysis and subject to a fair variance because of the number of assumptions used.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. The total 2011 number is helpful. I have following conclusions based on the Q3 2012 I-485 report and the 2011 number that you provided below. Would be good to know your thoughts.

- 78K for FY2011 would mostly be EB1 + EB2-ROW. In 2011 only EB2-IC PWMBs up to Apr-2007 could have filed which come to 1K based on PERM data in facts and analysis section. EB3 as you mentioned would be negligible as well.
The corresponding expected number for FY2012 for EB1 + EB2-ROW also comes out to be between 75-80K (assuming 60K receipts for EB2-IC, scaling up the remaining 64K to full year gives 84K, reducing a bit to account for the fact that EB2-ROW can not file in Q4 either). This implies that the receipts for EB1 + Eb2-ROW are in the same range for FY2011 and FY2012. More clarity will come with updated receipts for Q4.

- Positive side is we should be able to get at least the same spillover from EB1 in 2013 as in 2012 if the trend continues. You estimated 2012 spillover from EB1 to be roughly 6.5K. We should expect at least that or slightly higher.

- Same for EB2-ROW, if the trend continues EB2-ROW in 2013 will have 8-9K spare visas which will be enough to clear their backlog from 2012. So I would not expect them to use EB1-spillover, they will at-least break even.

- The final conclusion is on the negative side. Total EB1 + EB2-ROW quota is 74K. Total EB1 + EB2-ROW receipts of 70K+ (we can probably reduce 5K for EB4 from 75-80K) in 2011 and 2012 indicate very slow movement in EB2-IC if the trend continues in 2013.Ghost,

Thanks for your analysis. I would generally agree, perhaps with an exception.

I think the 78k in FY2011 would also include EB4 & EB5 receipts, which might have accounted for around 10k. That number might be slightly higher in FY2012. I would probably still agree that EB1 + EB2-WW demand is around the 70k mark.

Thanks for looking up the PWMB etc figure for FY2011 - I had used rather more than that and it increases the EB2-WW accordingly. I may also have overestimated new receipts for EB3.

For whatever reason, in FY2011, EB2-WW used 34,550 visas (slightly more than the available allocation). That is probably consistent with a bit of porting on top of normal receipts.

If the underlying receipt figures are fairly unchanged, in principle EB2-WW would use a similar number in FY2013 - which means no spillover from them. That doesn't take into account that there is the additional backlog flowing from FY2012 to FY2013 due to retrogression. I think that may be a wash and that USCIS/DOS will just carry on as normal, but with a bigger EB2-WW processing backlog. It is also possible that EB2-WW numbers have reduced a bit. Either way, we are both saying and assuming that EB2-WW will not actually consume any spillover in FY2013.

A minor point is that EB1 would reduce from 6.5k spillover in FY2012 when 145k EB visas are available to 5k in FY2013 if total EB visas reduced to 140k.

These are minor details. In essence, I think we are both saying that 5-6k from EB1 might be expected, but anything beyond that is going to be a bonus. That gives a base SOFAD of only 11-12k, with EB2-I receiving 8-9k. That is a gross number and the actual reduction in current numbers will be reduced by any further pre August 2007 porting numbers from June 2012 through most of FY2013.

I hope I haven't misconstrued what you have said - please correct me if I have.

[GhostWriter]

I agree with your assesment Spec. I had a 5K allowance for EB4 and you are right a similar number for EB5 should also be included. This would still bring the EB1 and EB2-ROW cases to 65-70K range for both 2011 and 2012 and these are only AOS filings, there will be a small number of additional CP cases. All this against a limit of 74K.

Alternatively we can also take the total 75-80K receipts and add an allowance for CP cases and compare it to 94K limit (for EB1 + EB2-ROW + EB4 + EB5).


Ghost,

Thanks for your analysis. I would generally agree, perhaps with an exception.

I think the 78k in FY2011 would also include EB4 & EB5 receipts, which might have accounted for around 10k. That number might be slightly higher in FY2012. I would probably still agree that EB1 + EB2-WW demand is around the 70k mark.

Thanks for looking up the PWMB etc figure for FY2011 - I had used rather more than that and it increases the EB2-WW accordingly. I may also have overestimated new receipts for EB3.

For whatever reason, in FY2011, EB2-WW used 34,550 visas (slightly more than the available allocation). That is probably consistent with a bit of porting on top of normal receipts.

If the underlying receipt figures are fairly unchanged, in principle EB2-WW would use a similar number in FY2013 - which means no spillover from them. That doesn't take into account that there is the additional backlog flowing from FY2012 to FY2013 due to retrogression. I think that may be a wash and that USCIS/DOS will just carry on as normal, but with a bigger EB2-WW processing backlog. It is also possible that EB2-WW numbers have reduced a bit. Either way, we are both saying and assuming that EB2-WW will not actually consume any spillover in FY2013.

A minor point is that EB1 would reduce from 6.5k spillover in FY2012 when 145k EB visas are available to 5k in FY2013 if total EB visas reduced to 140k.

These are minor details. In essence, I think we are both saying that 5-6k from EB1 might be expected, but anything beyond that is going to be a bonus. That gives a base SOFAD of only 11-12k, with EB2-I receiving 8-9k. That is a gross number and the actual reduction in current numbers will be reduced by any further pre August 2007 porting numbers from June 2012 through most of FY2013.

I hope I haven't misconstrued what you have said - please correct me if I have.

[vizcard]

Spec, Ghost - So bottom line is dates move to April/May 2008 in worst (or realistic) case scenario, right?

[Spectator]

Spec, Ghost - So bottom line is dates move to April/May 2008 in worst (or realistic) case scenario, right?vizcard,

Using 95% of the May USCIS Inventory numbers, assuming 55% of cases in the Inventory before 2007 are "dead" or were approved in May 2012 and with no further porting cases, the dates for EB2-I could move to the end of March 2008 with 8.2k visas (11k SOFAD).

However, the dates could not move beyond 2007 if further porting for EB2-I was in excess of 3k.

To reach the end of May 2008 would require about 10.9k (13.7k SOFAD) plus porting numbers for EB2-I using the same assumptions.

The numbers can be reset when the October 2012 Inventory is released.

[GhostWriter]

Yes Vizcard.
My objective of trying to compare 2011 and 2012 numbers was to see if there is a trend for high demand outside of EB2-IC. That appears to be the case though i had hoped for the opposite.
EB1+EB2-ROW+EB4+EB5 has a demand of 75-80K in both the years. Add a conservative 10K for CP cases and you get 85-90K vs. a total limit of 94K for these categories implying 10K spillover numbers. Add EB2-I's initial allotment of 2.8K and you just get 13K SOFAD in a steady state. (For 2013 numbers could be less as EB2-ROW's 2012 backlog needs to be cleared. Also i have not even accounted for porting).

Since these categories are current their approvals come from mostly the applications filed in current year and one year prior to that. If 2013 has demand similar to 2011 and 2012 then the answer to your question is yes. Let's hope the trend reverses and we see more spillover.


Spec, Ghost - So bottom line is dates move to April/May 2008 in worst (or realistic) case scenario, right?

asankaran, given that cut-off dates for EB2-ROW were not moved in Sep VB, I would hope that no visas would go waste but then anything is possible.
This post by Spec will probably answer your question better. (link (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=29360#post29360)).

I have a quick question. Considering the fact that USCIS approvals till June was 104,274 and as Spec or someone mentioned that CP would around 15-16k, can we wish for around 10-15k of available visas for this month ? Is there a possibility that USCIS may waste those visas ?

I remember EB3 lost around 800-900 visas. Any thoughts ?

[vizcard]

Yes Vizcard.
My objective of trying to compare 2011 and 2012 numbers was to see if there is a trend for high demand outside of EB2-IC. That appears to be the case though i had hoped for the opposite.
EB1+EB2-ROW+EB4+EB5 has a demand of 75-80K in both the years. Add a conservative 10K for CP cases and you get 85-90K vs. a total limit of 94K for these categories implying 10K spillover numbers. Add EB2-I's initial allotment of 2.8K and you just get 13K SOFAD in a steady state. (For 2013 numbers could be less as EB2-ROW needs to be returned the extra visas taken from them in 2012. Also i have not even accounted for porting).

Since these categories are current their approvals come from mostly the applications filed in current year and one year prior to that. If 2013 has demand similar to 2011 and 2012 then the answer to your question is yes. Let's hope the trend reverses and we see more spillover.

I really see no reason why the trends would reverse. There is no evidence from PERM or I-140 approvals to suggest otherwise. In any case, the worst case scenario actually is not that bad considering the craziness that happened this year. If things had gone the way they were supposed to i.e. FIFO, the PDs would have been Dec 2007 for FY2012 and likely Q4 calendar 2008 for FY2013.

[transformer123]

DOS expects to include some projections for cutoff dates during FY13 in the October Visa Bulletin. (On September 10th)

http://www.murthy.com/2012/08/31/visa-bulletin-projections-october-2012/

[Spectator]

DOS expects to include some projections for cutoff dates during FY13 in the October Visa Bulletin. (On September 10th)

http://www.murthy.com/2012/08/31/visa-bulletin-projections-october-2012/transformer,

Thanks.

From the article:


EB2 India and China Cutoff Date Expectations

In July 2012, the DOS projected the cutoff date for EB2 India and China expected in the October 2012 Visa Bulletin. The projected cutoff date at that time was August or September 2007. Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State recently communicated with the Murthy Law Firm and indicated that even the projected August or September 2007 cutoff date may be optimistic. That date range is a best-case scenario, and there could be an even earlier cutoff date, depending upon the high demand for EB2 immigrant visa numbers.

That sounds suspiciously like managing expectations, but perhaps should not be surprising, given how the Demand Data has increased already.

[openaccount]

transformer,

Thanks.

From the article:



That sounds suspiciously like managing expectations, but perhaps should not be surprising, given how the Demand Data has increased already.

Spec,
Thank you this is what i was afraid of and looks like eventually it is going to happen.

On a side note what would the projections mention other than "we messed up in FY2012 so it will take another 4 years(sorry this time 6 years) to clean up. And we are going to repeat same thing again."

[qesehmk]

We have seen many times in the past that DOS bulletins paint really negative pictures which then subsequently turn false.

As per the latest projection of how EB2IC dates will move - consider this - a few posts back we have laid out how EB2IC demand has reduced to 1.5-1.8K max (compared to 2.5-3K normal). EB2ROW demand should be reduced equally. So EB2IC approvals should actually come in much faster (4 years as opposed to 5 years normal).

So regardless when and how visa dates are moved - based on this fact - an applicant should expect to see approval in approx 4 years since PD now on.

[kkruna]

It all depends on spillover numbers to EB2IC. I think that the worry is that the spillover numbers are reduced?



We have seen many times in the past that DOS bulletins paint really negative pictures which then subsequently turn false.

As per the latest projection of how EB2IC dates will move - consider this - a few posts back we have laid out how EB2IC demand has reduced to 1.5-1.8K max (compared to 2.5-3K normal). EB2ROW demand should be reduced equally. So EB2IC approvals should actually come in much faster (4 years as opposed to 5 years normal).

So regardless when and how visa dates are moved - based on this fact - an applicant should expect to see approval in approx 4 years since PD now on.

[vizcard]

It all depends on spillover numbers to EB2IC. I think that the worry is that the spillover numbers are reduced?

Qs premise is that EB1 demand remains constant but EB2ROW goes down. If any of those assumptions are false, then the wait time doesn't reduce.

[TeddyKoochu]

I just saw the following article from Murthy, refer the link below for details.
http://www.murthy.com/2012/08/31/visa-bulletin-projections-october-2012/

- Most of us believe that the cutoff date for the Oct VB would be 01-AUG-2007, however CO himself seems to indicate that this is an optimistic projection.

- The number of erstwhile PWMB cases with PD before 01-AUG-2007 should not be too high, there are some extremely unlucky individuals whose files were not picked up despite filing in Oct / Nov 2011.

- Porting cases have been piling up now as EB2 I/C is unavailable they will have earlier PD than PWMB cases.

- In October monthly allocation is being released as opposed to quarterly so its just 240 as opposed to 720 for both India and China.

Let’s see what comes up in the bulletin though. We should be getting hearing the announcement that numbers have run out for 2012 very soon. Good to see EB1 cases getting approved this augurs well for FY 2013.

[bieber]

may be it's a typical extreme statement from CO
just like, they will attempt every possible thing to reach May2010 cut off

[Spectator]

These figures can always be found in the FACT & DATA section in this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards).

About this time of year, people often ask about the historical numbers, so I am reproducing them here.

------------------ CHINA ------------------------------------ INDIA ------------------------------------ CHINA & INDIA
-------------------FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011
Normal Allocation - 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 --- 2,803 ------ 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 --- 2,803 ------ 6,514 --- 5,606 --- 6,032 --- 5,606
Spillover --------- 3,698 ----- 242 --- 3,489 --- 5,454 ----- 11,549 --- 7,303 -- 16,945 -- 21,194 ----- 15,247 --- 7,545 -- 20,434 -- 26,648

SOFAD ------------- 6,955 --- 3,045 --- 6,505 --- 8,257 ----- 14,806 -- 10,106 -- 19,961 -- 23,997 ----- 21,761 -- 13,151 -- 26,466 -- 32,254

[openaccount]

http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=38263

Notes from conversations between Mike Nowlan & Roberta Freedman, AILA national committee members, and Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Topics discussed include the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012/FY2013. AILA Doc. No. 12012349.

Have to keep an eye on law-firm websites will post by end of today.

[GCKnowHow]

Restricted Access Page - Members Only :(


http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=38263

Notes from conversations between Mike Nowlan & Roberta Freedman, AILA national committee members, and Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Topics discussed include the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012/FY2013. AILA Doc. No. 12012349.

Have to keep an eye on law-firm websites will post by end of today.

[GhostWriter]

Can't access this link, but i googled the document number you had and it shows the following content on Ron's site posted on June 27.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17533

Is there anything posted today or were you looking for the above ?


http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=38263

Notes from conversations between Mike Nowlan & Roberta Freedman, AILA national committee members, and Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Topics discussed include the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012/FY2013. AILA Doc. No. 12012349.

Have to keep an eye on law-firm websites will post by end of today.

[openaccount]

Ghost-

This is posted today by AILA but only members have access, i was saying law-firms will post that info some time today/tomorrow as it happened in past. The link you sent has information from June.

http://www.aila.org/RecentPosting/RecentPostingList.aspx

In above link it is 3 rd from top, AILA posts every day updates in this section.

[GhostWriter]

Ok thanks for confirming. I was confused by the document number (12012349), now i understand. Let us know when you have the contents.


Ghost-

This is posted today by AILA but only members have access, i was saying law-firms will post that info some time today/tomorrow as it happened in past. The link you sent has information from June.

http://www.aila.org/RecentPosting/RecentPostingList.aspx

In above link it is 3 rd from top, AILA posts every day updates in this section.

[kkruna]

Someone quoted this on another forum from mitbbs:

Thursday, August 30, 2012, Roberta Freedman, AILA Students & Scholars Committee member, and Mike Nowlan, Chair of the AILA Business Committee, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 and FY2013 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Department of State’s Visa Office. These are only discussions of what could happen and are not assurances or guarantees by the Visa Office, as changes in visa usage result in changes in the Visa Bulletin.

EB-2 India priority date will probably go to 2006 when the Visa Bulletin is published next month (not 2007 as previously predicted). This is due in part to the retrogression in 2012, as well as the high level of EB-1 usage. India is expected to stay in 2006 for some time. It could fall back to 2005,but that does not appear likely right now. Slow movement in this category in FY2013 is expected.

EB-2 China priority date will be further ahead than India, but that assessment has not been completed yet.

EB-2 worldwide may go current in October, or it may go to early 2012 and then current in the November Visa Bulletin – a 2 step process. Why the delay? Employment-based numbers move in a fairly predictable usage pattern (unlike family-based cases). As a result, the Visa Office prefers to have a steady usage of EB cases per month. There are expected to be many EB-2 worldwide cases pending or filed in October, and slowing the usage could help predict usage for the rest of the year. A “correction” in EB-2 worldwide towards the latter part of FY2013 could happen (in other words, potentially visa retrogression for EB-2 worldwide and no longer current). EB-3 worldwide should remain as posted for the rest of September. No prediction could be given as to where it will go in the October Visa Bulletin. Steady progress is expected in FY2013, unless heavy EB-1 and EB-2 usage in FY2013, which would slow the speed of EB-3 worldwide.

[vrs7734]

considering the expected porting and spill over numbers, I won't be surprised if eb3 row will surpass eb2india in near future.

I will be happy as GOVERNMENT will seriously start to think changing employment based immigration policies.

[openaccount]

http://watsonimmigration.wordpress.com/2012/09/05/visa-bulletin-predictioncommentary/

Copied from AILA

Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand (Updated 9/05/12)

Cite as “AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Sep. 5, 2012)”

On Thursday, August 30, 2012, Roberta Freedman, AILA Students & Scholars Committee member, and Mike Nowlan, Chair of the AILA Business Committee, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 and FY2013 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Department of State’s Visa Office. These are only discussions of what could happen and are not assurances or guarantees by the Visa Office, as changes in visa usage result in changes in the Visa Bulletin.

Notes from that discussion are:

Employment Based (EB)-1 visa usage is extremely high. August 2012 was at a near record high. The Visa Office does not know why. Is USCIS clearing out backlogs because of the new Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or is this pent up demand from 2011, or more “upgrades”? The answer is unknown. The EB-1 visa category could close in September if usage remains this high (close the 40,000). It would then go current in October. In July 2012, EB-1 usage was almost 3,000, of which roughly 1,200 had 2011 or earlier priority dates, and the rest had 2012 priority dates. The 13,000 unused EB-1 numbers that were expected in FY2012, and which would then “drop down” to EB-2, did not happen.
EB-2 India priority date will probably go to 2006 when the Visa Bulletin is published next month (not 2007 as previously predicted). This is due in part to the retrogression in 2012, as well as the high level of EB-1 usage. India is expected to stay in 2006 for some time. It could fall back to 2005, but that does not appear likely right now. Slow movement in this category in FY2013 is expected.
EB-2 China priority date will be further ahead than India, but that assessment has not been completed yet.
EB-2 worldwide may go current in October, or it may go to early 2012 and then current in the November Visa Bulletin – a 2 step process. Why the delay? Employment-based numbers move in a fairly predictable usage pattern (unlike family-based cases). As a result, the Visa Office prefers to have a steady usage of EB cases per month. There are expected to be many EB-2 worldwide cases pending or filed in October, and slowing the usage could help predict usage for the rest of the year. A “correction” in EB-2 worldwide towards the latter part of FY2013 could happen (in other words, potentially visa retrogression for EB-2 worldwide and no longer current).
EB-3 worldwide should remain as posted for the rest of September. No prediction could be given as to where it will go in the October Visa Bulletin. Steady progress is expected in FY2013, unless heavy EB-1 and EB-2 usage in FY2013, which would slow the speed of EB-3 worldwide.

Other comments:

As reported previously, another problem with trying to predict the demand is that USCIS is not providing real time data on EB-3 to EB-2 “upgrades”, and the Visa Office is also seeing a significant number of EB-2 to EB-1 “upgrades.” “Upgrades” continue to be a big “wildcard,” as no one knows how many are being used per month. Mr. Oppenheim confirmed his previous comments that USCIS cannot tell him how many upgrades are filed. He would appreciate a process where USCIS notifies his office when the I-140 for the EB-2 “upgrade” is filed, so he can understand what is in the pipeline. Since the retrogression earlier this year, the Visa Office has better data on the cases pending than they did previously because cases filed with a pending adjustment of status application are pre-adjudicated, which gives his office more detail on the person’s priority date history. Retrogression is still a problem, but understanding the data is a small benefit to it.

Upgrades were initially limited to India and China. Worldwide upgrades are now occurring, with 2,900 upgrades for EB-2 worldwide in February 2012. Over 500 of those had a priority date of 2009 or earlier. The Visa Office knows it has 3,500 EB-2 worldwide cases pre-adjudicated and ready to be approved on October 1st and expects more new filings in October.

Family Based (FB) 2A cases: Usage is dropping. Outreach programs seem to increase usage. Immigrant visa waiver delays, primarily in Mexico, also slow usage. FB-2A usage is slower than it should be so the priority dates are expected to move forward at the same pace as FY2012. However, if demand continues to be low, this group may move forward more significantly in the spring of 2013.

[openaccount]

USCIS mislead CO big time this year, one thing is for sure he is not going to move EB2I any further at least until August2013.

[TeddyKoochu]

Someone quoted this on another forum from mitbbs:

Thursday, August 30, 2012, Roberta Freedman, AILA Students & Scholars Committee member, and Mike Nowlan, Chair of the AILA Business Committee, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 and FY2013 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Department of State’s Visa Office. These are only discussions of what could happen and are not assurances or guarantees by the Visa Office, as changes in visa usage result in changes in the Visa Bulletin.

EB-2 India priority date will probably go to 2006 when the Visa Bulletin is published next month (not 2007 as previously predicted). This is due in part to the retrogression in 2012, as well as the high level of EB-1 usage. India is expected to stay in 2006 for some time. It could fall back to 2005,but that does not appear likely right now. Slow movement in this category in FY2013 is expected.

EB-2 China priority date will be further ahead than India, but that assessment has not been completed yet.

EB-2 worldwide may go current in October, or it may go to early 2012 and then current in the November Visa Bulletin – a 2 step process. Why the delay? Employment-based numbers move in a fairly predictable usage pattern (unlike family-based cases). As a result, the Visa Office prefers to have a steady usage of EB cases per month. There are expected to be many EB-2 worldwide cases pending or filed in October, and slowing the usage could help predict usage for the rest of the year. A “correction” in EB-2 worldwide towards the latter part of FY2013 could happen (in other words, potentially visa retrogression for EB-2 worldwide and no longer current). EB-3 worldwide should remain as posted for the rest of September. No prediction could be given as to where it will go in the October Visa Bulletin. Steady progress is expected in FY2013, unless heavy EB-1 and EB-2 usage in FY2013, which would slow the speed of EB-3 worldwide.

Thanks for posting for everyone's benefit. My view is that the prediction made here assumes only 240 odd allocation per month will be done come October. The only reason to move as far back as suggested is for porting cases. Considering that Eb2 has been unavailable for a while it would not be surprising that they have at least 500 ready to approve porting cases with a PD prior to Aug 207 and they wish to draw the line at 240 - 250 odd.

[kkruna]

"... and the Visa Office is also seeing a significant number of EB-2 to EB-1 “upgrades.” "

How does one upgrade from EB2 to EB1?

[abcx13]

They should just open source the whole damn database. It would be interesting to know the uptick in EB1C upgrades and new filing and how much of it is coming from India. I have a feeling EB1-I would be retrogresses were it not for SO across. I wonder if USCIS even tracks outliers - like if EB1C-I filings go up by 50% every year but EB1C-ROW stays constant.

EB2-I is basically the new EB3-I thanks to increased EB3 upgrades (both IC and ROW) and reduced spillover. And to the poster upthread - I don't have high hopes even if EB2I falls behind EB3ROW. EB ROW "other workers", i.e. unskilled, has been ahead of EB3I for a while and nobody seems to give a f***. Either quotas need to be increased or porting of PDs needs to be stopped if they want to manage this situation sensibly. Apart from supply, demand also needs to be managed better by imposing stricter requirements (like fixing the stupid prevailing wage system).

P.S. - I guarantee you if EB2ROW was more retrogressed there would be more serious action on this issue. Politicians will sit up and take notice when their Irish and German brothers can't get visas, Nobody gives a shit about poor Indians, especially when they flout the system so blatantly.

[abcx13]

"... and the Visa Office is also seeing a significant number of EB-2 to EB-1 “upgrades.” "

How does one upgrade from EB2 to EB1?

Go back to India for one year, become a 'manager' and file under EB1C which is always current (so your old PD is irrelevant unless EB1-I retrogresses).

[chengisk]

"... and the Visa Office is also seeing a significant number of EB-2 to EB-1 “upgrades.” "

How does one upgrade from EB2 to EB1?

That is what is making me think that all this notes from that law firm is humbug.

[openaccount]

Spec,
As i pointed out earlier EB1 used almost 40k if not more this year.

FY2012 rough usage
EB1------40k
EB4/5---16k
EB2------46-48k

I believe CO will move dates based on Usage in past 6months from(March2012) and estimating FY2013 numbers based on usage in past 6months.

So if we take above(FY2012) usage as basis for FY2013 then EB2IC will not receive more than its regular quota(5600) which will be used up by Porting numbers, i think that is the reason for CO being cautious about FY2013 EB2 movement. He might change his projection later but it wont happen till August 2013 especially after what happened in past 6months he will move dates more cautiously.

Only thing EB2I can do now is
--Use EAD/AP
--Apply EAD/AP renewals before 120 days of expiration
--Wait…Wait…Wait till your number comes

Things EB2I can hope for
--EB1/EB2ROW/EB4/EB5/Porting--demand decreases(difficult with current numbers)
--USCIS gives priority to DACA applications and delays EB1/EB2ROW/EB4/EB5/Porting processing which would decrease demand(not possible as 485 cases have separate adjudication officers)
--HR3012 passes(least possible under current circumstances)

[tackle]

EB-2 India priority date will probably go to 2006 when the Visa Bulletin is published next month (not 2007 as previously predicted).

This is sad.

[CleanSock]

I think a lot is going on against Indians in general in the government. Heard that F-1 rejections in India are at an all time high. In a certain reputed university in NJ/NYC area only 16 Indians joined in all grad courses this fall as compared to 300 from China.
Makes me wonder what is going on :O





They should just open source the whole damn database. It would be interesting to know the uptick in EB1C upgrades and new filing and how much of it is coming from India. I have a feeling EB1-I would be retrogresses were it not for SO across. I wonder if USCIS even tracks outliers - like if EB1C-I filings go up by 50% every year but EB1C-ROW stays constant.

EB2-I is basically the new EB3-I thanks to increased EB3 upgrades (both IC and ROW) and reduced spillover. And to the poster upthread - I don't have high hopes even if EB2I falls behind EB3ROW. EB ROW "other workers", i.e. unskilled, has been ahead of EB3I for a while and nobody seems to give a f***. Either quotas need to be increased or porting of PDs needs to be stopped if they want to manage this situation sensibly. Apart from supply, demand also needs to be managed better by imposing stricter requirements (like fixing the stupid prevailing wage system).

P.S. - I guarantee you if EB2ROW was more retrogressed there would be more serious action on this issue. Politicians will sit up and take notice when their Irish and German brothers can't get visas, Nobody gives a shit about poor Indians, especially when they flout the system so blatantly.

[abcx13]

I think a lot is going on against Indians in general in the government. Heard that F-1 rejections in India are at an all time high. In a certain reputed university in NJ/NYC area only 16 Indians joined in all grad courses this fall as compared to 300 from China.
Makes me wonder what is going on :O

Hopefully they are cleaning up the frauds like TriValley and the small consulting shops who don't pay benched employees. I personally know at least 3 Indians with different backgrounds who have flouted H1B and B1/B2 rules.

What sucks though is that the grain gets mixed with the chaff. Any more details on that uni? Is it Rutgers?

EDIT: BTW, curious where you get the F1 statistics from. Haven't seen them and I'm sure they'd be interesting. Or was that anecdotal?

[openaccount]

Posted at:
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18052

http://immigration-law.com/

We should get clear picture in next 6-9 months how EB2 dates will move in future. I think CO will stick to the process(which ever he is going to follow in FY2013) for next 4-5 years until pending cases are cleaned out.

[CleanSock]

No it's not Rutgers. It's a very popular and reputed University closer to Wall Street. I know because I am a student there and part of their student council and that's how I have the numbers. Another interesting thig is that all those 16 Indian students who got F-1 have prior work experience.




Hopefully they are cleaning up the frauds like TriValley and the small consulting shops who don't pay benched employees. I personally know at least 3 Indians with different backgrounds who have flouted H1B and B1/B2 rules.

What sucks though is that the grain gets mixed with the chaff. Any more details on that uni? Is it Rutgers?

EDIT: BTW, curious where you get the F1 statistics from. Haven't seen them and I'm sure they'd be interesting. Or was that anecdotal?

[bvsamrat]

It appears that EB3 is just a foot on the door, as ultimately they all get upgraded.


They should just open source the whole damn database. It would be interesting to know the uptick in EB1C upgrades and new filing and how much of it is coming from India. I have a feeling EB1-I would be retrogresses were it not for SO across. I wonder if USCIS even tracks outliers - like if EB1C-I filings go up by 50% every year but EB1C-ROW stays constant.

EB2-I is basically the new EB3-I thanks to increased EB3 upgrades (both IC and ROW) and reduced spillover. And to the poster upthread - I don't have high hopes even if EB2I falls behind EB3ROW. EB ROW "other workers", i.e. unskilled, has been ahead of EB3I for a while and nobody seems to give a f***. Either quotas need to be increased or porting of PDs needs to be stopped if they want to manage this situation sensibly. Apart from supply, demand also needs to be managed better by imposing stricter requirements (like fixing the stupid prevailing wage system).

P.S. - I guarantee you if EB2ROW was more retrogressed there would be more serious action on this issue. Politicians will sit up and take notice when their Irish and German brothers can't get visas, Nobody gives a shit about poor Indians, especially when they flout the system so blatantly.

[abcx13]

No it's not Rutgers. It's a very popular and reputed University closer to Wall Street. I know because I am a student there and part of their student council and that's how I have the numbers. Another interesting thig is that all those 16 Indian students who got F-1 have prior work experience.

Interesting. I guess you mean NYU? What is the usual intake of Indians? While 16:300 is a lopsided ratio, it doesn't by itself mean that a lot of Indians got rejected. Feel free to PM if you don't want to discuss publicly.

[abcx13]

It appears that EB3 is just a foot on the door, as ultimately they all get upgraded.Yeah, by hook or by crook. I don't really blame them - it's the system that's at fault. What else would you do if you were faced with an interminable wait in EB3? You'd upgrade using the 5 yr work ex or some crappy online university (if you didn't want a Masters for educational reasons, i.e.).

[Spectator]

Just some observations about the AILA Infonet article. Some of the staements were actually a little odd.


The American Immigration Lawyers Association just posted the following information [AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Sep. 5, 2012)]:

Notes from that discussion are:


Employment Based (EB)-1 visa usage is extremely high. August 2012 was at a near record high. The Visa Office does not know why. Is USCIS clearing out backlogs because of the new Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or is this pent up demand from 2011, or more “upgrades”? The answer is unknown. The EB-1 visa category could close in September if usage remains this high (close the 40,000). It would then go current in October. In July 2012, EB-1 usage was almost 3,000, of which roughly 1,200 had 2011 or earlier priority dates, and the rest had 2012 priority dates. The 13,000 unused EB-1 numbers that were expected in FY2012, and which would then “drop down” to EB-2, did not happen.I would confirm that I also saw very high August approvals for EB1.

Because only about 25k approvals were made in FY2011, rather than the 35k that might have been expected (from published I-140 data), around 10k EB1 cases may have flowed through to FY2012. There was therefore always the possibility of 45k approvals in FY2012 if the backlog was brought back to the former level.

If anyone (in DOS or USCIS) ever thought 13k were going to be available (27k approvals) - frankly they are an idiot and I don't say that with the benefit of hindsight. I can understand DOS using it as an excuse to release visas early, but only with the knowledge that it was never going to happen.


EB-2 India priority date will probably go to 2006 when the Visa Bulletin is published next month (not 2007 as previously predicted). This is due in part to the retrogression in 2012, as well as the high level of EB-1 usage. India is expected to stay in 2006 for some time. It could fall back to 2005, but that does not appear likely right now. Slow movement in this category in FY2013 is expected.
EB-2 China priority date will be further ahead than India, but that assessment has not been completed yet.

The initial dates and progress have more to do with existing and future porting numbers. Possibly that is what is meant by reference to retrogression in FY2012.

China is clearly going to be less affected by this, unless we have seriously misjudged EB2-C porting.


EB-2 worldwide may go current in October, or it may go to early 2012 and then current in the November Visa Bulletin – a 2 step process. Why the delay? Employment-based numbers move in a fairly predictable usage pattern (unlike family-based cases). As a result, the Visa Office prefers to have a steady usage of EB cases per month. There are expected to be many EB-2 worldwide cases pending or filed in October, and slowing the usage could help predict usage for the rest of the year. A “correction” in EB-2 worldwide towards the latter part of FY2013 could happen (in other words, potentially visa retrogression for EB-2 worldwide and no longer current).

This is a slightly odd one for me. I have no problem with the fact that it might take 2 months for EB2-WW to become Current.

What is odd is the reference to the fact that EB2-WW might become retrogressed late in FY2013.

Assuming there isn't another visa allocation cock-up, this could only happen if EB2-WW had demand in excess of visas available to it.

That is 34,434 plus any numbers available through falldown from EB1.

If that were to happen, then one can infer that EB2-IC would get no spillover at all and would only have the 5.6k allocation available.

Even for me, that seems a very pessimistic viewpoint. It is certainly not impossible, but I am extremely surprised that the possibility should even be mentioned before the FY has begun.

It does tend to say that fairly high EB2-WW approvals were expected anyway and that the backlog flowing through from FY2012 may cause EB2-WW to exceed the allotted quota. To even suggest it as a possibility is not a good message.


EB-3 worldwide should remain as posted for the rest of September. No prediction could be given as to where it will go in the October Visa Bulletin. Steady progress is expected in FY2013, unless heavy EB-1 and EB-2 usage in FY2013, which would slow the speed of EB-3 worldwide.

Again, this is a really strange statement.

EB1 and EB2 usage cannot generally affect EB3 numbers, unless spillover to EB3 were expected, which is definitely not the case.

The only way I can rationalise the statement is if it is referring to EB3-Philippines (and maybe EB3-Mexico), who can exceed the nominal numbers in EB3 because of the derivation of the 7% number.

If there were high approvals in EB1 and EB2, then the numbers available to that Country in EB3 would reduce.

In FY2011, EB2 approvals for Philippines increased by 50%, so maybe this is what is being alluded to.

In addition, some Countries (ROW for sure) are going to reach the end of the current backlog during FY2013 and the COD will have to be moved forward to generate new cases. That can't really be described as "would slow the speed of EB-3 worldwide".


I know I have probably (no, have) over-analysed the exact words used. The forecasts must be necessarily vague at this stage and should be treated as such. Since it is an interpretation of what was said, it is always possible that something was lost in the translation of what was actually said or meant.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks for your thoughts Spec.

How do you monitor monthly approvals.




I would confirm that I also saw very high August approvals for EB1.



The other way it is possible is use of QSP again. If there is spillover from EB4/EB5 and EB2-ROW does not have more demand than its quota in a quarter then the spillover can be applied to EB2-IC. Later when EB2-ROW demand increases in a subsequent quarter then it will get a cut-off. CO if he wishes can do QSP just to keep providing part of spillover (from EB4/5/1) to EB2-IC. The prediction of demand in subsequent quarters is subjective and can be done in more than one ways.
Q2 (Jan-Mar) will be a good time to do that, the old cases of EB2-ROW would have been approved in Q1 and the new EB2-ROW cases that would be filed in Q1 (Oct-Dec 2012) would not be pre-adjudicated yet and will not show up in the demand data till Q3. But it is a matter of choice and very less likely. Also can only help in short term (1-2 years).



This is a slightly odd one for me. I have no problem with the fact that it might take 2 months for EB2-WW to become Current.

What is odd is the reference to the fact that EB2-WW might become retrogressed late in FY2013.

Assuming there isn't another visa allocation cock-up, this could only happen if EB2-WW had demand in excess of visas available to it.

[Jonty Rhodes]

There can only be two conclusions from these posts and predictions by CO, DOS, USCIS whatever.

1. This system is completely f***ed up.

2. These agencies/CO can not be trusted because their reputation of messing up everything horribly precedes every statement/prediction they make.

I am so sick of this ridiculousness and discrimination where qualified people are made to wait years for no fault of theirs where others equally qualified or even less qualified march ahead without any problem or minimal wait.

[qesehmk]

Jonty time lost is so much more precious. That's why people need to follow their dream regardless of gc status.

I suspect the govt agencies are quite competent and well coordinated. I believe the delays and lack of clarity comes because of severe limitations on eB visas and need to implement immigrations objectives within what law prescribes without revealing inner workings respectively.
There can only be two conclusions from these posts and predictions by CO, DOS, USCIS whatever.

1. This system is completely f***ed up.

2. These agencies/CO can not be trusted because their reputation of messing up everything horribly precedes every statement/prediction they make.

I am so sick of this ridiculousness and discrimination where qualified people are made to wait years for no fault of theirs where others equally qualified or even less qualified march ahead without any problem or minimal wait.

[pakkpk]

http://watsonimmigration.wordpress.com/2012/09/05/visa-bulletin-predictioncommentary/

Copied from AILA, reality is shown in the analysis for EB2.

[abcx13]

Spec, what do you make of the porting number? 2900 upgrades to EB2ROW in Feb alone is quite high. Maybe we have been underestimating porting? It's frustrating that he doesn't just give an annualized porting number for ROW and IC.

If 2900 is what it was in one month (and that's only ROW from my reading of the AILA doc), then most of the EB2 quota is likely going to upgrades from EB3, which I find to be ridiculous.

[Spectator]

Spec, what do you make of the porting number? 2900 upgrades to EB2ROW in Feb alone is quite high. Maybe we have been underestimating porting? It's frustrating that he doesn't just give an annualized porting number for ROW and IC.

If 2900 is what it was in one month (and that's only ROW from my reading of the AILA doc), then most of the EB2 quota is likely going to upgrades from EB3, which I find to be ridiculous.abcx13,

CO freely admits that he is not getting any information from USCIS about porting, which is clearly a source of increasing frustration to him.

Whenever he mentions "upgrades", the associated figures seem wildly high. I think any figures for Feb or March 2012, even if true, are probably not representative because USCIS were in "hyperdrive mode" at that time.

Porting numbers are a black hole as far as the calculations are concerned. No-one, with the information available, seems to have been able to pin a number on them.

If there is significant porting for WW, it isn't currently helping forward progress in EB3. 2007 PD numbers for EB3-WW have hardly changed either. That would point to porting being from post July 2007 cases, if it exists.

On the other hand, it would at least partly explain how EB2-WW has been able to sustain such high numbers.

The May 2012 USCIS Inventory showed about 3.2k cases for EB2 with a PD before 2011. That may also be evidence.

Bottom line - I'm not sure it is a question I can answer right now, although it is one I also think about.

[chengisk]

... I am so sick of this ridiculousness and discrimination where qualified people are made to wait years for no fault of theirs where others equally qualified or even less qualified march ahead without any problem or minimal wait.

You should change your smiling avatar to a frowning one. I agree with Q when he says the people in the system are competent. It is just the system itself that needs to be revamped. However I see no impetus for such a change as we wish for. So till then, quoting Ted, "...the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives and the dream shall never die." That's what we 'the highly skilled' to do everyday... it is lab time now.

[redsox2009]

Originally Posted by kkruna
EB-2 India priority date will probably go to 2006 when the Visa Bulletin is published next month (not 2007 as previously predicted).

This is sad.
.

I don't this theory. I don't think it will move to 2006.

[ChampU]

Not the kind of news to open the new year with..

I know a lot of people think its the Indian IT companies are using up a lot of EB1-C numbers thereby driving up the demand.. I'm not sure if that is entirely accurate. Do we have the breakdown of EB1 numbers by country for FY-2012, yet?
Another factor that is said to kill the SO is the "upgrades". I can understand DoS not getting the numbers from USCIS and therefore they are unable to paint an accurate picture.. but AILA members can definitely forecast the numbers, since the majority of them actually process the upgrades.. They may not post it as an official statement, but if they are indeed keen on providing transparency to the process, they can throw some light about the actual prediction.
Sadly, the uncertainty about the numbers brings good business to them as it scares the crap out of folks in EB3 (and I don't blame them one bit) and makes them want to upgrade ASAP, if they are eligible..I don't mean to be a conspiracy theorist.. but I am not sure, if the situation is indeed as bad as it is made out to be..

[chengisk]

I don't this theory. I don't think it will move to 2006.

It is sad, but it seems to be more than a mere theory now. Especially after numerous law offices are reporting the same as originating from AILA's and DoS/CO's mouth.

[openaccount]

We can conclude one thing from what CO is doing(other than depending on USCIS for demand numbers) for past 1 year and previous years, he is just looking at previous year pattern and trying to use that as model for next year, it didn't work this year(Fy2012) and I am pretty sure it is not going to work next year(Fy2013).

In FY2011 when EB1 gave 15k SO he expected similar SO in FY2012 but USCIS gave a shocker.

Until USCIS/DOS keeps on playing these games without tracking I-140 s this situation will exist(if anything it is going to become worse).

[Spectator]

Not the kind of news to open the new year with..

I know a lot of people think its the Indian IT companies are using up a lot of EB1-C numbers thereby driving up the demand.. I'm not sure if that is entirely accurate. Do we have the breakdown of EB1 numbers by country for FY-2012, yet?
Another factor that is said to kill the SO is the "upgrades". I can understand DoS not getting the numbers from USCIS and therefore they are unable to paint an accurate picture.. but AILA members can definitely forecast the numbers, since the majority of them actually process the upgrades.. They may not post it as an official statement, but if they are indeed keen on providing transparency to the process, they can throw some light about the actual prediction.
Sadly, the uncertainty about the numbers brings good business to them as it scares the crap out of folks in EB3 (and I don't blame them one bit) and makes them want to upgrade ASAP, if they are eligible..I don't mean to be a conspiracy theorist.. but I am not sure, if the situation is indeed as bad as it is made out to be..ChampU,

I know.

The amount of moaning about EB1C and "upgrades" seems inversely proportional to the number of visas EB2-I are expected to get.

The pattern for EB1 approvals between FY2008 - FY2011 is shown below.
287
Here's my take on it.

a) FY2011 was an aberration, probably caused by USCIS having to develop new procedures for EB1A and EB1B and retraining the adjudicators due to the Kazarian decision.

b) EB1C % of EB1 has been roughly similar, with the exception of FY2009.

c) EB1-I approvals have risen slightly over time. This may be due to either more EB1C or just more people applying in EB1A/B. It is impossible to tell with the data available.

d) The total increase for EB1-I is just a couple of thousand at most. Even if they were all EB1C, it is fairly insignificant in the total number.

The data is taken from the DOS Visa Statistics and the DHS Yearbook. Although total figures don't totally agree, they are extremely close.

I can't help with FY2012 figures.

[bvsamrat]

Latest update from Murthy's web site. It appears to be 2006 for EB2-I for October 2012 and coming months.



ChampU,

I know.

The amount of moaning about EB1C and "upgrades" seems inversely proportional to the number of visas EB2-I are expected to get.

The pattern for EB1 approvals between FY2008 - FY2011 is shown below.
287
Here's my take on it.

a) FY2011 was an aberration, probably caused by USCIS having to develop new procedures for EB1A and EB1B and retraining the adjudicators due to the Kazarian decision.

b) EB1C % of EB1 has been roughly similar, with the exception of FY2009.

c) EB1-I approvals have risen slightly over time. This may be due to either more EB1C or just more people applying in EB1A/B. It is impossible to tell with the data available.

d) The total increase for EB1-I is just a couple of thousand at most. Even if they were all EB1C, it is fairly insignificant in the total number.

The data is taken from the DOS Visa Statistics and the DHS Yearbook. Although total figures don't totally agree, they are extremely close.

I can't help with FY2012 figures.

[abcx13]

ChampU,

I know.

The amount of moaning about EB1C and "upgrades" seems inversely proportional to the number of visas EB2-I are expected to get.

The pattern for EB1 approvals between FY2008 - FY2011 is shown below.
287
Here's my take on it.

a) FY2011 was an aberration, probably caused by USCIS having to develop new procedures for EB1A and EB1B and retraining the adjudicators due to the Kazarian decision.

b) EB1C % of EB1 has been roughly similar, with the exception of FY2009.

c) EB1-I approvals have risen slightly over time. This may be due to either more EB1C or just more people applying in EB1A/B. It is impossible to tell with the data available.

d) The total increase for EB1-I is just a couple of thousand at most. Even if they were all EB1C, it is fairly insignificant in the total number.

The data is taken from the DOS Visa Statistics and the DHS Yearbook. Although total figures don't totally agree, they are extremely close.

I can't help with FY2012 figures.
Thanks, Spec. I didn't realize the EB1-I and EB1C-I numbers were so inconsequential. I'd be willing to (partially) retract my criticism once I see 2012 numbers - because unless I'm mistaken, the H1 and L1 rejection problems started after 2011, which is what might cause a rise in EB1C-I. I will only partially retract it since there are still enough cases of fraud in EB1C from Indian IT companies (and there would probably be more if their profitability and margins weren't dependent on indentured slave labor - there was a good Mint article a while back which showed the difference to an Indian IT company's margin due to hiring an overseas worker instead of a local). Though to be fair, there is probably fraud in EB1C from non-Indian companies too.

[bvsamrat]

If the situation is so bad(or as usual like previous years) then why the heck the PD dates were advanced? It appears now that only due to HR-3012 specculation and no thing else.

It reminds me of an old riddle- a frog takes one step forward every morning and 2 steps backwards at night. After few days where it would reach??


Thanks, Spec. I didn't realize the EB1-I and EB1C-I numbers were so inconsequential. I'd be willing to (partially) retract my criticism once I see 2012 numbers - because unless I'm mistaken, the H1 and L1 rejection problems started after 2011, which is what might cause a rise in EB1C-I. I will only partially retract it since there are still enough cases of fraud in EB1C from Indian IT companies (and there would probably be more if their profitability and margins weren't dependent on indentured slave labor - there was a good Mint article a while back which showed the difference to an Indian IT company's margin due to hiring an overseas worker instead of a local). Though to be fair, there is probably fraud in EB1C from non-Indian companies too.

[chengisk]

If the situation is so bad(or as usual like previous years) then why the heck the PD dates were advanced? It appears now that only due to HR-3012 specculation and no thing else.

It reminds me of an old riddle- a frog takes one step forward every morning and 2 steps backwards at night. After few days where it would reach??

When there was rapid advancement of the dates, those visa bulletins clearly stated that the movement is due to lack of demand at that point of time. I do believe that DoS did it without foresight, but then it is to be expected of the govt. agency. I am certain they will not learn the lesson even now. Now that they have petitions till 2010, when the cutoff reaches 2010, they will notice the empty can and redo the whole exercise and so on and so forth...

[Spectator]

Thanks, Spec. I didn't realize the EB1-I and EB1C-I numbers were so inconsequential. I'd be willing to (partially) retract my criticism once I see 2012 numbers - because unless I'm mistaken, the H1 and L1 rejection problems started after 2011, which is what might cause a rise in EB1C-I. I will only partially retract it since there are still enough cases of fraud in EB1C from Indian IT companies (and there would probably be more if their profitability and margins weren't dependent on indentured slave labor - there was a good Mint article a while back which showed the difference to an Indian IT company's margin due to hiring an overseas worker instead of a local). Though to be fair, there is probably fraud in EB1C from non-Indian companies too.abcx13,

Maybe (I am not going to disagree), but there is "playing the system", fraud, whatever you want to call it in all Categories.

Someone outside EB2 might say there is Education and Experience Requirement inflation in the PERM system for EB2 positions, for example. I think everyone can think of something if they want to.

If there were unlimited resources, the amount could be reduced. The reality is that is not the case.


If the situation is so bad(or as usual like previous years) then why the heck the PD dates were advanced? bvsamrat,

For the sole purpose of generating an Inventory that would last several years.

Had the July 2007 backlog not been cleared, you would not have seen the big advances.

[Spectator]

Spec,

How do you compare CO's comments in the Visa bulletins between oct'11 to march'12 ( imaginary projection of low EB2 IC demand ) versus these unofficial high demand comments floating in the air ? I happened to believe him but I have dilemma this time,when we have data like I-140 approvals which are as same as last year.Kanmani,

I've already said many times and long ago that there was a complete disconnect between what CO was saying in those earlier VBs and what we were seeing for applicant demand. Eventually, it became obvious that dates would have to be made Unavailable and that EB2-WW were also at risk.

It seems from the article that CO was banking on 13k from EB1. In post #8035, I made it clear what I think about that premise.

USCIS didn't seem capable of providing information that was remotely up to date. Judging by most information from USCIS, it was anything up to 2 months out of date. It certainly doesn't seem to have been coming from the Lockboxes. If it was, they must still be using the Pony Express.

I think CO is experienced enough, particularly with USCIS, to have known exactly what was going on.

It suited CO to believe USCIS, because it meant he could achieve his aim of collecting a very big Inventory for future years. He could then make USCIS the scapegoats for the disaster, which he effectively has.

CO should be ashamed for not retrogressing EB2-IC a couple of months earlier. Most of the worst aspects could have been avoided and he would still have had an Inventory that would last several years.

Even if demand had turned out slightly lower than expected, he would still have had plenty of time in the remainder of the FY to move the EB2-IC dates forward as required to use up the available visas. People with later PDs would still have had their I-485 filed, but late PD approvals would not have been possible. EB2-WW would not have been retrogressed and FY2012 & FY2013 would not be looking like disaster zones.

One of the differences now is that CO can look in the DOS system and actually see the number of pre-adjudicated cases. That's where he wants to be - completely divorced from any input or reliance on USCIS.

Sorry if I sound angry - it's because I am! The Cut Off Date movement was great and has allowed 10s of thousands to file I-485 who otherwise could not have done so. It would have taken so little to have come out smelling of roses - instead the people affected have been treated with a total lack of respect.

Rant over. Sorry you received both barrels. It feels better. :)

[Kanmani]

Spec, Thanks. I wish and long for this to happen if someone could direct Mr.Co to read your posts.

I had an immense anger when CO's predictions and assumptions turned out to be wrong and still continue to hate these speculations over upcoming bulletins.

[gc_soon]

Hi Spec/Qesehmk,
First of all - thanks for the diligence on analysis and predictions you guys make. Really appreciate that.
I know no one can predict, but what is your idea on when July 2007(EB2-I) would be current? Your guess on most likely case?

Would there be a lot of EB3 to EB2 India porters before PD July 2007 going forward? Or is it reasonable to assume most of them would have already ported?

[qesehmk]

gc_soon - under normal circumstances you should get your GC in first 3 months i.e. by Dec 2012. The only way you can't get it is if A) There is something wrong with you application. B) There is more than 3K porting going on in EB2I.

B is actually quite possible. So DEc 2012 should be your best case and Jun 2013 should be the worst case (assuming no quarterly spillover).

Hi Spec/Qesehmk,
First of all - thanks for the diligence on analysis and predictions you guys make. Really appreciate that.
I know no one can predict, but what is your idea on when July 2007(EB2-I) would be current? Your guess on most likely case?

Would there be a lot of EB3 to EB2 India porters before PD July 2007 going forward? Or is it reasonable to assume most of them would have already ported?

[gc_soon]

Thanks a lot Q for the response.
My case is actually CP(my wife's follow to join). I already have my GC and waiting for my wife's date(July 2007 - same as my date) to be current).
Regd porting, you say there would be a 3K porting in EB2I, but isn't most porting going to happen with PDs after July 2007 (since the porters with PD before 2007, would have ported last year itself when July 2007 was current?). I'm not sure, just asking.


I just read Murthy's newsflash which saddens me:
http://www.murthy.com/2012/09/06/newsflash-dos-issues-revised-eb2-cutoff-date-prediction/
"the DOS predicts that the cutoff date will remain at a 2006 date for some time beyond the October 2012 Visa Bulletin." Not clear what "some time beyond October" means, but looks like the best case may not happen. I'm hoping at least for the worst case. Praying...

[qesehmk]

gc_soon - Unfortunately when it comes to porting - what matters is EB3 backlog not EB2 backlog. There is tons and tons of EB3 backlog prior to July 2007 (min 50K I would guess). So to find 3K in 50K per year is a very safe bet. However it is also true that portings shouldn't exceed 5K (which many of us consider upper limit).

So regardless the date will be current between 3-9 months and your wife could follow you.

I wonder if you can bring her here on B1 i.e. tourist visa and then adjust her status?

I also wonder if you can file her as FB2 rather than EB2. FB2 for India is already current.


Thanks a lot Q for the response.
My case is actually CP(my wife's follow to join). I already have my GC and waiting for my wife's date(July 2007 - same as my date) to be current).
Regd porting, you say there would be a 3K porting in EB2I, but isn't most porting going to happen with PDs after July 2007 (since the porters with PD before 2007, would have ported last year itself when July 2007 was current?). I'm not sure, just asking.


I just read Murthy's newsflash which saddens me:
http://www.murthy.com/2012/09/06/newsflash-dos-issues-revised-eb2-cutoff-date-prediction/
"the DOS predicts that the cutoff date will remain at a 2006 date for some time beyond the October 2012 Visa Bulletin." Not clear what "some time beyond October" means, but looks like the best case may not happen. I'm hoping at least for the worst case. Praying...

[gc_soon]

Thanks Spec. The porting numbers seems scary. Seems like I have to wait for spill over.

I think you mean F2A when you say FB2 ?- the PD for that is May 2010 and my EB2 PD doesn't carry in that case, so no dice :( In most cases follow to join is faster than family based GC. But unfortunately, retrogression screwed up our lives.

Also, I can't bring my wife on any non-immigrant visa(B1/F1), since I have already established her immigration intent by filing an immigrant petition :( Only option would be H1, but in my case, it's not possible.


gc_soon - Unfortunately when it comes to porting - what matters is EB3 backlog not EB2 backlog. There is tons and tons of EB3 backlog prior to July 2007 (min 50K I would guess). So to find 3K in 50K per year is a very safe bet. However it is also true that portings shouldn't exceed 5K (which many of us consider upper limit).

So regardless the date will be current between 3-9 months and your wife could follow you.

I wonder if you can bring her here on B1 i.e. tourist visa and then adjust her status?

I also wonder if you can file her as FB2 rather than EB2. FB2 for India is already current.

[abcx13]

abcx13,

Maybe (I am not going to disagree), but there is "playing the system", fraud, whatever you want to call it in all Categories.

Someone outside EB2 might say there is Education and Experience Requirement inflation in the PERM system for EB2 positions, for example. I think everyone can think of something if they want to.Agreed. I've said the same before about wage surveys and recruitment efforts (they are designed to achieve a singular objective - pay whatever wage the employer wants and make damn sure that no qualified American is found). The system is basically set up to be gamed. Still, each fraudulent app (EB1C or questionable educational evals or job reqt inflation or artificially low wages or fake degrees) hurt when one has to wait 5-7 years.

[qesehmk]

gc_soon - Are you 100% sure that the PD won't carry?

Secondly - if I were you I would apply for a B visa regardless and just tell that eventually immigration intent exists. For now at least would like to visit US. What's teh worst case - the visa will be denied. It doesn't get worse than that.


Thanks Spec. The porting numbers seems scary. Seems like I have to wait for spill over.

I think you mean F2A when you say FB2 ?- the PD for that is May 2010 and my EB2 PD doesn't carry in that case, so no dice :( In most cases follow to join is faster than family based GC. But unfortunately, retrogression screwed up our lives.

Also, I can't bring my wife on any non-immigrant visa(B1/F1), since I have already established her immigration intent by filing an immigrant petition :( Only option would be H1, but in my case, it's not possible.

[nikkya]

I received the Murthy newsletter just now and its clear from that , that the dates are going to be somewhere in 2006. here is thy link
http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=682b25f2cd6f7fb031591bd27&id=a3e33abe46&e=00c8410215

[gc_soon]

gc_soon - Are you 100% sure that the PD won't carry?

Yeah, I'm pretty sure about this. Family based petitions have the date you apply as PD.



Secondly - if I were you I would apply for a B visa regardless and just tell that eventually immigration intent exists. For now at least would like to visit US. What's teh worst case - the visa will be denied. It doesn't get worse than that.
Yeah, I explored that option, but my lawyer (and couple of outside lawyers) were strongly against it, as it could also raise some concern at the follow to join interview. But, thanks for the suggestion. I think I'll consider it again.

[Spectator]

gc_soon - Are you 100% sure that the PD won't carry? Q,

An EB PD cannot be transferred to FB and vice versa.

The retention of a PD established under EB1-EB3 is covered by 8CFR 204.5(e)


(e) Retention of section 203(b)(1) , (2) , or (3) priority date. (EB1 - EB3) -- A petition approved on behalf of an alien under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act accords the alien the priority date of the approved petition for any subsequently filed petition for any classification under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act for which the alien may qualify. In the event that the alien is the beneficiary of multiple petitions under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act, the alien shall be entitled to the earliest priority date. A petition revoked under sections 204(e) or 205 of the Act will not confer a priority date, nor will any priority date be established as a result of a denied petition. A priority date is not transferable to another alien.

This is repeated in the State Department FAM 9 FAM 42.53 N3 EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE PETITIONS (http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/87863.pdf) section (a)

Section (c) says


c. A priority date established in the employment-based first, second, or third preference category is not transferable to employment-based fourth or fifth preference petitions or to a family-sponsored petition.

I am sure the same statement is also in the USCIS AFM, but I haven't looked it up.

[devi_pd]

If EB2-ROW stays retrogressed and there is no spillover to EB2-I, someone applying for a GC today in 2012 will not get it before that person retires. SO, there is no point keeping that person in queue. If the govt is not willing to make any legislative changes to address this issue, the best way out would be to have a lottery for 2,800 visas every year and let the others go or have them renew their temporary work permits.

[murali83]

Guys,

Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.

Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.

Cheers

Murali

[Spectator]

Guys,

Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.

Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.

Cheers

MuraliMurali,

Good luck. That must have been a very difficult decision.

I wish you all the best.

Spec

[pdfeb09]

Guys,

Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.

Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.

Cheers

Murali

Murali,

All the Very Best with your career and life. I have a couple of friends who made the same decision and are leading a happy life right now. One of them is in Chennai, no less. Hope that gives you some good things to dream about :).

[Kanmani]

Murali,

Congratulations! Brave decision in my perspective. Chennai is my hometown too. All the best for your future.

[openaccount]

Guys,

Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.

Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.

Cheers

Murali

murali,

Wish you all the best.

As Q and others in this forums have been saying all along it is better no to plan anything around GC. After working for 6 years in a start-up and seeing all my colleagues who came after me moved to better positions in same start-up, i was stuck in same position for only reason GC/PD, i am also finally making a move to other company what ever happens it will, no matter if you have GC or not.

[murali83]

Thanks a lot guys. I have been flirting with this idea for quite sometime after my MBA. Most of the opportunities i was offered in india were in consulting, but i wanted to stick to marketing, and in specific in the manufacturing domain. So career always comes first to me and this opportunity will help me in that direction.

Sportsfan, thanks for the caution, will keep it in mind.

Spec, it was a tuf decision considering the fact that US does make life a little easy, but i am an eternal optimist and i see all the positives back home, will cross the bridge of negatives when i get there. The main concern i have is, I came to the US as a grad student right after my bachelors in india. Never ever worked in india, so i am sure i am in for some shocks.

Kanmani, i am so eager to go to saravana bhavan for dinner with my wife, first thing that comes to my mind when i think of living in chennai.

[chengisk]

Guys,

Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.

Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.

Cheers

Murali

Wow hearing the name Ashok Leyland just hit me with loads of nostalgia. I miss Madras... well Chennai. Good Luck on your new endeavor.

[Spectator]

Spec.

Now other question(s)

1- If EB3 are upgrading to EB2, then is it assumed that EB3 will move at a faster rate?
If you are talking about EB3-I, I think the effect will be minimal. The majority of upgrades come from PD that will not be Current next year. 2002 upgrades are not many of the total, judging by the minimal evidence available.


2- Or in anyway will benefit EB-WW(For eg. EB3-WW may get current due these (upgrades?)

I don't think it will help EB3-WW much either. If anything EB3-ROW has moved slower than expected for an unknown reason. Again any EB3-WW porting close to dates that will be Current is likely to be quite low.

What is likely to happen is that EB3-ROW will exhaust the backlog to July 2007 in FY2013. There will probably be about 12k left according to the Demand Data. That should take 6-8 months to deplete. CO will need to move the Cut Off Dates beyond July 2007 about 3-4 months before then to ensure continued demand throughout the year. I don't think he will make it Current.

If he doesn't then EB3-ROW would run out of demand. If that was the case at the end of the FY, EB3-I would be the beneficiary of Fall Across, but I don't seriously think that will happen. The same will probably happen to EB3-Mexico, but it is a bit uncertain for EB3-Philippines - they may have to wait until FY2014.


3 If SOFAD is very high for 2012/2011/2010/2009 and now expected to quite low - I know that you had given detailed explanations previously. Is there any change in logic now?) any chances for some large movement in next March/April?
It depends what you mean by large movement.

It depends on how USCIS decide to handle the backlogged EB2-WW applications and the amount of EB2-I porting.

The words in the Notes from the meeting with CO make me more pessimistic than I was. Mention of EB2-WW retrogression suggests they will process the backlog as well as a normal yearly run rate.

I would prefer to wait and see what CO actually says in the October VB.

[qesehmk]

Murali - my heartiest wishes to you!! I truly admire your decision for two reasons:
1. Simply for making a decision and not hanging in in Limbo which unfortunately many of us - (including this writer - oink oink!!) do.
2. Sharing it with us!

I don't think going back or staying here by itself is right or wrong. Every person has different circumstances and reasons and goals. But you clearly are one of the rare ones who seem to have figured it out clearly. Good luck and if you happen to visit Pune or Mumbai at all - eat one or two "Kacchi Dabeli" in my name!!!



Guys,

Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.

Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.

Cheers

Murali

[SmileBaba]

Spec/Q & other Champs..when do you guys think Eb2I with PD in Dec 2007 should expect actual green card in hand? Thanks in advance.

[dec2007]

Spec/Q & other Champs..when do you guys think Eb2I with PD in Dec 2007 should expect actual green card in hand? Thanks in advance.

I have the same question, please let us know ur prediction for dec 2007. mine is dec 31, 2007. Seeing the news about EB2 moving back to 2006, i might have to reassess my career plans.. thanks a lot.

[Spectator]

Spec/Q & other Champs..when do you guys think Eb2I with PD in Dec 2007 should expect actual green card in hand? Thanks in advance.


I have the same question, please let us know ur prediction for dec 2007. mine is dec 31, 2007. Seeing the news about EB2 moving back to 2006, i might have to reassess my career plans.. thanks a lot.Guys,

I can't give you a prediction. The situation is very fluid and I certainly want to see the October Demand Data, October Bulletin and next USCIS Inventory before even thinking about one.

You both have as much information as I do.

Essentially, it comes down to whether more visas are available than are required to cover cases to the end of 2007.

Perhaps what I can do is give you an idea of what you may wish to take into account if you wish to try yourself.

Firstly, look at how many visas may be needed.

The September Demand Data says there are 5k EB2-I cases before 2008. These are cases that have already had a visa requested, so it should be the lowest base possible. You should be able to update that figure tomorrow.

We all know there are other factors to take into account.

a) The number of porting cases from June 2012 to the beginning of the the new FY. These will not yet appear in the Demand Data because USCIS cannot make the final conversion step and request a visa until the PD is Current (according to the AFM).

b) Porting cases to come that will be processed during FY2013.

The above will give you the number of visas required to reach a COD of 01JAN08 if cases were processed completely FIFO. You may wish to make an adjustment for the fact that this is never the case.


Secondly, consider the number of visas that may be available to EB2-I during FY2013.

a) Will EB get any extra visas from FB? Probably not, but make your own decision.

b) How many spare visas will there be from EB4, EB5.

c) How many visas will EB1 use? Will they need to use any spare visas from EB4/EB5? You will now know how many visas will fall down to EB2.

d) Will EB2-WW use any of the spare visas?

EB2-C will only have their initial 2.8k available unless your figure for spare visas is over c. 15k.

Add the number calculated above to the initial 2.8k already available and you should now have a figure for total visas available to EB2-I.


If your figure of available visas is equal to or higher than the number of visas required (which you calculated first), then the COD will cover all 2007 dates. If it is not, then COD will not reach the end of 2007.

I think you will find that the result is very sensitive to the assumptions you make.

Good luck.

[suninphx]

Guys,

I can't give you a prediction. The situation is very fluid and I certainly want to see the October Demand Data, October Bulletin and next USCIS Inventory before even thinking about one.

You both have as much information as I do.

Essentially, it comes down to whether more visas are available than are required to cover cases to the end of 2007.

Perhaps what I can do is give you an idea of what you may wish to take into account if you wish to try yourself.

Firstly, look at how many visas may be needed.

The September Demand Data says there are 5k EB2-I cases before 2008. These are cases that have already had a visa requested, so it should be the lowest base possible. You should be able to update that figure tomorrow.

We all know there are other factors to take into account.

a) The number of porting cases from June 2012 to the beginning of the the new FY. These will not yet appear in the Demand Data because USCIS cannot make the final conversion step and request a visa until the PD is Current (according to the AFM).

b) Porting cases to come that will be processed during FY2013.

The above will give you the number of visas required to reach a COD of 01JAN08 if cases were processed completely FIFO. You may wish to make an adjustment for the fact that this is never the case.


Secondly, consider the number of visas that may be available to EB2-I during FY2013.

a) Will EB get any extra visas from FB? Probably not, but make your own decision.

b) How many spare visas will there be from EB4, EB5.

c) How many visas will EB1 use? Will they need to use any spare visas from EB4/EB5? You will now know how many visas will fall down to EB2.

d) Will EB2-WW use any of the spare visas?

EB2-C will only have their initial 2.8k available unless your figure for spare visas is over c. 15k.

You should now have a figure for visas available to EB2-I.


If your figure of available visas is equal to or higher than the number of visas required (which you calculated first), then the COD will cover all 2007 dates. If it is not, then COD will not reach the end of 2007.

I think you will find that the result is very sensitive to the assumptions you make.

Good luck.

Spec - as usual , very well explained. Thank you!

[SmileBaba]

Guys,

I can't give you a prediction. The situation is very fluid and I certainly want to see the October Demand Data, October Bulletin and next USCIS Inventory before even thinking about one.

You both have as much information as I do.

Essentially, it comes down to whether more visas are available than are required to cover cases to the end of 2007.

Perhaps what I can do is give you an idea of what you may wish to take into account if you wish to try yourself.

Firstly, look at how many visas may be needed.

The September Demand Data says there are 5k EB2-I cases before 2008. These are cases that have already had a visa requested, so it should be the lowest base possible. You should be able to update that figure tomorrow.

We all know there are other factors to take into account.

a) The number of porting cases from June 2012 to the beginning of the the new FY. These will not yet appear in the Demand Data because USCIS cannot make the final conversion step and request a visa until the PD is Current (according to the AFM).

b) Porting cases to come that will be processed during FY2013.

The above will give you the number of visas required to reach a COD of 01JAN08 if cases were processed completely FIFO. You may wish to make an adjustment for the fact that this is never the case.


Secondly, consider the number of visas that may be available to EB2-I during FY2013.

a) Will EB get any extra visas from FB? Probably not, but make your own decision.

b) How many spare visas will there be from EB4, EB5.

c) How many visas will EB1 use? Will they need to use any spare visas from EB4/EB5? You will now know how many visas will fall down to EB2.

d) Will EB2-WW use any of the spare visas?

EB2-C will only have their initial 2.8k available unless your figure for spare visas is over c. 15k.

Add the number calculated above to the initial 2.8k already available and you should now have a figure for total visas available to EB2-I.


If your figure of available visas is equal to or higher than the number of visas required (which you calculated first), then the COD will cover all 2007 dates. If it is not, then COD will not reach the end of 2007.

I think you will find that the result is very sensitive to the assumptions you make.

Good luck.

thanks a lot Spec! After taking e'thing into account looks like it could be difficult to cross EB2I PD of Dec 2007 next fiscal year.
Will wait for your predictions once October demand data and visa bulletin becomes available.

[billu77]

I think one should always hope for the best but be prepared for the worst case scenario. In this ever changing situation, nobody can predict when EB2 india will cross 2007.

Best case scenario: EB 2 India crosses 2007 and goes to mid 2008 by end of FY 2013
Worst Case Scenario: EB2 india does not even cross 2007 august due to porting and lack of spillovers.

In any case, I think we should not hope for any good news (dates crossing 2006) before April 2013 (not for the first half of FY 2013).

Luck plays a major part in this situation. Someone with PD of Dec 2008 may have been lucky to get GC in March 2012 before visas ran out while some of us whose PD is 2007 may well have to wait till atleast april or may of 2013 which is a difference of atleast one year.(even though we filed earlier!)

[redsox2009]

Any updates from Mumbai Consulate?

[qesehmk]

All Moderators / Gurus

I have created the 2013 thread. Right now it is only visible to moderators. Please go to the thread and secure your place - which then you can use throughout the year to update your own predictions.

Let me give you all 5 days and then we will open this thread for all users!

Happy forecasting!

Q

[murali83]

Murali - my heartiest wishes to you!! I truly admire your decision for two reasons:
1. Simply for making a decision and not hanging in in Limbo which unfortunately many of us - (including this writer - oink oink!!) do.
2. Sharing it with us!

I don't think going back or staying here by itself is right or wrong. Every person has different circumstances and reasons and goals. But you clearly are one of the rare ones who seem to have figured it out clearly. Good luck and if you happen to visit Pune or Mumbai at all - eat one or two "Kacchi Dabeli" in my name!!!

Thanks Q,

Cheers

Murali

[GCKnowHow]

That is an awesome decision. I'm too thinking of such a decision, will reach out to you (PM) once I made up my mind, probably this year end.
Wishing you all the very best


Guys,

Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.

Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.

Cheers

Murali

[Eb2_Dec07]

Spec and Q,

Once the VB is out today, we look forward to your latest predictions.

Please also emphasize when it might cross Dec 07 for EB2 I as a bench mark .

Many thanks.

[bvsamrat]

Perfecto

2.8 K it will be in strict sense. But as generally it is never the case and addtional visa numbers spill over always. But only be known on December/January. Till that time suspense may continue(frankly they may just allot 200-300 Visas/month in coming months)



Guys,

I can't give you a prediction. The situation is very fluid and I certainly want to see the October Demand Data, October Bulletin and next USCIS Inventory before even thinking about one.

You both have as much information as I do.

Essentially, it comes down to whether more visas are available than are required to cover cases to the end of 2007.

Perhaps what I can do is give you an idea of what you may wish to take into account if you wish to try yourself.

Firstly, look at how many visas may be needed.

The September Demand Data says there are 5k EB2-I cases before 2008. These are cases that have already had a visa requested, so it should be the lowest base possible. You should be able to update that figure tomorrow.

We all know there are other factors to take into account.

a) The number of porting cases from June 2012 to the beginning of the the new FY. These will not yet appear in the Demand Data because USCIS cannot make the final conversion step and request a visa until the PD is Current (according to the AFM).

b) Porting cases to come that will be processed during FY2013.

The above will give you the number of visas required to reach a COD of 01JAN08 if cases were processed completely FIFO. You may wish to make an adjustment for the fact that this is never the case.


Secondly, consider the number of visas that may be available to EB2-I during FY2013.

a) Will EB get any extra visas from FB? Probably not, but make your own decision.

b) How many spare visas will there be from EB4, EB5.

c) How many visas will EB1 use? Will they need to use any spare visas from EB4/EB5? You will now know how many visas will fall down to EB2.

d) Will EB2-WW use any of the spare visas?

EB2-C will only have their initial 2.8k available unless your figure for spare visas is over c. 15k.

Add the number calculated above to the initial 2.8k already available and you should now have a figure for total visas available to EB2-I.


If your figure of available visas is equal to or higher than the number of visas required (which you calculated first), then the COD will cover all 2007 dates. If it is not, then COD will not reach the end of 2007.

I think you will find that the result is very sensitive to the assumptions you make.

Good luck.

[Spectator]

The last updated date has changed for the Demand Data, but as yet, it still links to the September figures.

Changed now. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[yank]

Demand data is finally out

[openaccount]

The last updated date has changed for the Demand Data, but as yet, it still links to the September figures.

Updated

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[yank]

Expect date to be in 2006. 1450 case prior to 2007, ROW close to 5K. Long wait is ahead...not a good way to start new yr..

[openaccount]

Quick calculation on how many EB2 ROW will be ready for approval starting October 1st.

EB2ROW added 2075 from Aug8 to Sept 10 at this rate there will be easily an additional 1500 added from Sept10-Sept30(3 weeks), which would bring total EB2ROW backlog ready to approve on Oct1st to a minimum 6350.

So EB2 starts FY2013 with 40040-6350--->33690

EB2 After ROW Backlog Usage----->33690(40040-6350)
EB2IC Regular Quota------------------->5606(EB2I--2800 will be consumed mostly cases prior to 2006/2007)
EB2 remaining--------------------------->28084(33690-5606)

If EB2ROW crosses 28084(in addition to 6350) limit then they will consume any SO from EB1/4/5. So for EB2I to get any SO EB2ROW usage should stay below 28084 in FY2013, which is below 3000 per month starting from November 2012.

[TeddyKoochu]

No need to look at the VB now. By adding a row for cumulative demand prior to January 1, 2007, there is a message that EB2-I will start in 2006. EB2-C may be in 2008.

Sports that’s a great observation about the ROW for 2006 that certainly says it all. I believe the cumulative prior to 2007 has increased by ~ 600 which is porting happening primarily for those cases from EB3-I where 485 was filed back in 2007 itself, these cases are ready to approve. The could not be approved because EB2 -I was unavailable. Good luck to all.

[suninphx]

No surprises in demand data. Eventually, ROW backlog due to retro may be less than 8k, IMO. Wouldn't worry much about where dates open at start. The trend for catagories other than EB2I is what we should be watching for in first 2 quarters.

[vrs7734]

So after october vb release, employment based visa can be renamed as "Diversity based visa- extended" as lower skilled workers will be preferred from rest of world than higher skilled workers from India and in some extent China. (eb3row pd>eb2 india)

[openaccount]

I think EB2ROW might get a COD in this VB mainly because of 2 reasons 1)CO may not allocate more than 2500-3000 visas in October. 2)Control applications flow(according to news last week)

[suninphx]

I think game is over for the first 2 quarters. Count no more than 1800 visas. EB2-I probably won't even cross 2007 assuming porting continues to be built at normal levels. We can only wait for the inventory reports now to understand the anticipated spillover starting April.

I am not disagreeing with what you stated. My point is we may not draw conclusions for whole year based on where it opens at start of next FY. And as far as movement of EB2I goes, it's anyone's guess. I don't see any value wasting time on predicting what agencies will do.

[GhostWriter]

Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. (Does not account for porting, that could change the numbers below especially for 2007).

EB2-I
2007 - 85% (DD-4150, Inv-4904)
2008 - 96% (DD-14500, Inv-15136)
2009 - 81% (DD-10900, Inv-13429)
2010 - 63% (DD-3100, Inv-4912)

EB2-C
2007 - 81% (DD-850, Inv-1046)
2008 - 95% (DD-3150, Inv-3311)
2009 - 79% (DD-2300, Inv-2913)
2010 - 59% (DD-575, Inv-975)

[suninphx]

Our annual fate will purely depend upon the relief EB1 will provide. At this time, I think 3-5K fall across from EB2-ROW and 3-5K fall down from EB4/5 can be expected.

So that's essentially 12-15k SOFAD. That's what my gut feel too. ( my gut feel figure is slightly more in fact 15-17k).

[nishant2200]

sportsfan, very astute observation. You surely if not already are, would be a great manager/director/exec :)

My personal opinion is if you are getting 20% more salary, and that you have a PD of 10/2008, you should use EAD and excercise AC21.


No need to look at the VB now. By adding a row for cumulative demand prior to January 1, 2007, there is a message that EB2-I will start in 2006. EB2-C may be in 2008.

Cumulative demand has seen a massive increase since the last month. I saw almost 2.7K prior to 2009. Some of those may be preadjudicated cases, but a large number seem to be porting cases.

This seems to a bad year for EB2-I. Spillover from EB2-ROW will decrease at least by 6K as they were shut down for 3 months and that demand will have to be absorbed this year. EB1 is our only hope at this point.

Wow! How things have changed since the beautiful days of start of this year!

At least we have the EAD. But what good is it really? I am contemplating myself. My H1B is about to run out this coming January. I have a couple of very strong leads that can become offers, but without sponsorship. Sure, I can use AC21 and all, but after having lived and died by the H1B, I am not ready to give it up and take the plunge with the EAD. My current job is going really well, and for a typical case like mine, *death by slow growth and diminished prospects* seems to be the order of the day. I will contemplate some more, and if the alternative pay is really too good (it's already 20% more, but still not enough to convince me to give up the H1B), I might take the *leap of faith*. I don't see my GC for at least 1 year though. That much is certain.

God bless us all.

[openaccount]

I think EB2ROW might get a COD in this VB mainly because of 2 reasons 1)CO may not allocate more than 2500-3000 visas in October. 2)Control applications flow(according to news last week)

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5770.html

EB2I-SEP04
EB2ROW--Jan12
EB2C--15JUL07

[gten20]

EOOWOW! That stinks!

[Kanmani]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5770.html

October 2012 bulletin is out

Eb2 I 01 Sept 2004

[qbloguser]

Looks to me a random pick by CO!

[gten20]

A WTF moment.

[usernameisnotvalid]

Who is there with PD 2004 in Eb2? Porting??

[Jonty Rhodes]

2004? Seriously? Looks like porting is taking its toll on EB2. The worst part is these guys don't even have any special comments down towards the end in the visa bulletin explaining why they decided to take the dates to 2004 for EB2I.

[gten20]

Life goes on... time to move to greener pastures.

[qesehmk]

Here is quick observation on demand data. Between 2008-2009 the demand seems to be 1500 / month for EB2I. Including china 1800-1900. AT its highest peak the demand was 2800-3000 few years back. Even if you assume 2400 as secular demand. That's 33% demand destruction due to recession. There is no reason why EB2ROW would be immune from recession. And mind you that includes all kinds of portings.

So assuming the same - it should mean - the total SOFAD we have seen between 2006-2011 (i.e. for prerecession demand) - we should expect to see at least same or slightly more 2012 onwards.

I can't say for certain what will happen in 6 months. But to think that EB2I is going to be stuck in 2006 or 2007 is too pessimistic. I am quite hopeful that actually 2008 will be cleared by Sep 2013. I can bet a dollar on that.

p.s. - What a truly WT_ moment. The date movement is completely at odds with the demand data published. There is hardly any demand before 1 Jan 2007. Why not 1 Jan 2007? why 2004? Then why does DOS bother to publish demand data at all?

Guys chill out ... go home. Don't think about it. This is nonsense.

[nishant2200]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5770.html

October 2012 bulletin is out

Eb2 I 01 Sept 2004

This is going to be open season for Porting.

The advantage of U (unavailable) is that it blocks the folks who already have EB3 485 filed due to July 2007 situation, from bleeding away the slow trickle, as well as at times, bursts of SO.

Otherwise such a congestion management ploy by DOS, is only going to have the Porting take away numbers, and the situation may always look grim to CO.

I really feel for my friends, two of them in same community, they live right here, they applied in November, a month before me, and still stuck with Sep 2007 PD in EB2.

On the other hand, the porting folks, they too have waited for eternity. It's all in all a very unfortunate situation.

[ggk189]

well not sure this is a spiral journey or a circular journey towards the central point which is attaining GC. I somehow convince myself every time that it is former, but CO will pull up some unknown and shows me that it is later.....

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing. Couple of things.
- Porting is happening quite heavily even for 2003 folks for India.
- The more significant bad news is that EB2 ROW is not current and from the current date it looks like it might take a minimum of a quarter to get current.
- EB2 ROW and EB1 hold the real key to the fortunes this year. EB1 usage will be higher primarily because the effect of the Kazarian Memo is waning and EB1-C is rising. For EB2 ROW the backlog is the concern.
- EB3-I is in a very dense zone and will move only 1 week per VB, this will cause porting to accelerate.

[gc_soon]

Is CO setting COD to 2004 an effort to prevent porting? Is it now possible for EB3 (with a PD later than Sep 2004) to port now?

[Spectator]

Kudos to Teddy for predicting that DOS would only allocate the 252 monthly allocation. Using the DOS Demand data and prorating the pre 2007 number of 1,350 by the split between years in the USCIS May Inventory gives a 2004 date for EB2-I.

Similarly, it gives a July 2007 date for China.

[bookworm]

ignorance is bliss. I wish i could go back to being clueless about the immigration process and just being worried about exceling at my day job.

[justvisiting]

I want to point out EB2-WW only moved to Jan 1, 2012. I mentioned earlier why, there are not enough visas in the 1st month to justify a "C".

[Sandeep2011]

Dear friends,

I just looked at pending inventory data and Teddy's prediction about DOS allocating only 252 visas each month. If you add up all the pending inventory numbers upto September 2004, it comes to approximately 300 pending cases. Could it be just the case of CO managing the dates to follow a quota of 252/month?

The other observation that i have is that if you compare number of cases between May inventory and Demand data, difference is only about 150. I am assuming that this is mainly because of porting. If that is true, it is only 150 cases in last 4 months which is not that high? Am i interpreting these numbers correctly. There is also a bit of wishful thinking as my PD is Sept'07 EB2-I :-)

pending cases Cumulative Demand Data
1997 2 2
1998 4 6
1999 0 6
2000 5 11
2001 17 28
2002 35 63
2003 121 184
2004 242 426
2005 218 644
2006 552 1196 1350
2007 4904 6100 5500
2008 15136 21236 20000
2009 13429 34665 30900
2010 4912 39577 34000

[qesehmk]

Kudos to Teddy for predicting that DOS would only allocate the 252 monthly allocation. Using the DOS Demand data and prorating the pre 2007 number of 1,350 by the split between years in the USCIS May Inventory gives a 2004 date for EB2-I.

Similarly, it gives a July 2007 date for China.
Spec - While it is possible that CO can explain is that way, but then EB1 and EB2ROW as entire categories could easily be retrogressed years and years back. Just look at the pending demand for those categories. Besides this has never been done month to month in the past. So it just goes to show the arrogance and insensitiveness that CO has demonstrated here. I am really surprised.

[justvisiting]

Spec - While it is possible that CO can explain is that way, but then EB1 and EB2ROW as entire categories could easily be retrogressed years and years back. Just look at the pending demand for those categories. Besides this has never been done month to month in the past. So it just goes to show the arrogance and insensitiveness that CO has demonstrated here. I am really surprised.

I agree the date seems random. Q, I would point out that the monthly allocation for EB1 and EB2-WW is much higher than that of any single country. However, I agree that EB2-M and EB2-P probably have a higher demand than 250 a month and it's hard to explain how they have the same cutoff date as WW.

The dates show CO will be super-cautious this year. Burned once (2007) and twice (2012). Don't think he would like to be brunt thrice.

USCIS seems to be adding 6K India, 1 K China and 2K Other cases per month.

[ChampU]

Damnnn that suxxxxx!!

This is an extremely conservative move on the part of CO.. But at least, this guarantees that there will be movement on a fairly regular basis in this FY..With a COD of 2004, even if EB2-I is restricted to regular quota movement, it would still bring forward movement every month.. The porting allocation will be front loaded.. and there should be allocation for "original EB2" applicants in Q2/Q3 at least..

As disheartening as this is.. at least, we will be able to forecast porting trends early in the year..Looking for a silver lining on a storm cloud...

I had thought that I would not worry about the bulletin until at least February, had the dates moved to August 2007.. Not anymore..

[Spectator]

Spec - While it is possible that CO can explain is that way, but then EB1 and EB2ROW as entire categories could easily be retrogressed years and years back. Just look at the pending demand for those categories. Besides this has never been done month to month in the past. So it just goes to show the arrogance and insensitiveness that CO has demonstrated here. I am really surprised.
Q,

Pending Demand in the Inventory is not the same as documentarily qualified cases that would appear in the Demand Data. The USCIS figure just says they have an approved I-140 and the case is in process.

The monthly increase in EB2-WW cases in the Demand Data since becoming retrogressed is not outside the normal monthly allocation (3.1k / month). The total accumulated is, hence a Jan 2012 Cut Off Date.

With exception of this year, it is exactly what CO has usually done (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf) and what he always does with EB3 for all Countries.

[qesehmk]

Spec - that is quite untrue. Just check out the EB2ROW and EB1 inventory as much as is available on USCIS website, almost always the entire category had more backlog than monthly category quota and yet the category was NEVER retrogressed.


With exception of this year, it is exactly what CO has usually done (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf) and what he always does with EB3 for all Countries.

[Spectator]

Spec - that is quite untrue. Just check out the EB2ROW and EB1 inventory as much as is available on USCIS website, almost always the entire category had more backlog than monthly category quota and yet the category was NEVER retrogressed.Q,

I suggest you re-read my post.

I explained why the total USCIS Inventory does not equal monthly demand.

Currently actual monthly demand for EB2-WW appears to be c.2k / month in the Demand Data.

Aug - 775 (about one week) - Data as of July 9, 2012
Sep - 2,775 - +2,000 - Data as of August 8, 2012
Oct - 4,850 - +2,075 - Data as of September 6, 2012

Another 3 weeks should add c. 1,500 at the current rate for a total of c.6.5k.

Since EB5-China start with zero allocation, there is probably some extra numbers available as well to satisfy the demand over 2 months.

FY2009

COD moved from 01APR03 to 01JUL03 in October through January.

FY2010

COD stayed at 22JAN05 from October through February, then 01FEB05 March through June.

FY2011

COD stayed at 08MAY06 from October through April.

[qesehmk]

Spec - all of us are aware of that fact. If you look at EB2ROW inventory - are you saying that out of 5-10K outstanding cases they never had more than 2.5K demand (equivalent to their monthly quota right)?
Q,

I suggest you re-read my post.

I explained why the total USCIS Inventory does not equal monthly demand.

Currently actual monthly demand for EB2-WW appears to be c.2k / month in the Demand Data.

Aug - 775 (about one week) - Data as of July 9, 2012
Sep - 2,775 - +2,000 - Data as of August 8, 2012
Oct - 4,850 - +2,075 - Data as of September 6, 2012

Another 3 weeks should add c. 1,500 at the current rate for a total of c.6.5k.

Since EB5-China start with zero allocation, there is probably some extra numbers available as well to satisfy the demand over 2 months.

[qesehmk]

Sorry guys to hog this thread - but please vote for your charity. We try to keep this site not-for-profit by donating the ad revenues from this site.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made

[Spectator]

Spec - all of us are aware of that fact. If you look at EB2ROW inventory - are you saying that out of 5-10K outstanding cases they never had more than 2.5K demand (equivalent to their monthly quota right)?Q,

They may have exceeded the monthly allocation of 3.1k in the first 9 months slightly in some months, but clearly the overall EB2-WW final visa numbers say they did not on average exceed the number available to them.

The USCIS Inventory represents all eligible cases in progress at any one time. Since an I-485 might take 4-6 months to process, it represents far more than the numbers that might be approved in any one month.

For Categories or Countries that are usually Current, the USCIS Inventory and Demand data are chalk and cheese.

Look at the numbers in the Inventory. They don't bear any resemblance to the true numbers for EB2-WW. You wouldn't think there were more than 500-600 EB2-WW cases a month if you believed it. Similarly, you would have to believe there were only about 1,400 EB1 cases per month.

In general, EB2-WW has started the FY slowly and built up over the course of the year.

As for EB2-I movements in previous FY, see my addition to my previous post.

Enough I think. If we hold different views on the subject - so be it.

[veni001]

Friends the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing. Couple of things.
- Porting is happening quite heavily even for 2003 folks for India.
- The more significant bad news is that EB2 ROW is not current and from the current date it looks like it might take a minimum of a quarter to get current.
- EB2 ROW and EB1 hold the real key to the fortunes this year. EB1 usage will be higher primarily because the effect of the Kazarian Memo is waning and EB1-C is rising. For EB2 ROW the backlog is the concern.
- EB3-I is in a very dense zone and will move only 1 week per VB, this will cause porting to accelerate.

Teddy,
I am kind of skeptical if that is going to happen before Q3, considering the fact that ROW-M-P got 13K demand from May 03,2012 inventory and 6K PERM certifications in Q3.

[openaccount]

Have not noticed till now but EB5 and EB4(Certain Religious Workers) is U for October, i think because of bill pending in House.

From VB:
"The cut-off dates for the categories mentioned above have been listed as “Unavailable” for October. Congress is currently considering an extension of the SR, I5 and R5 visa categories, but there is no certainty when such legislative action may occur. If there is legislative action extending one or both of these categories for FY-2013, those cut-off dates would immediately become “Current” for October."

[abcx13]

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the new EB3-I: EB2-I! As always, we Indians have screwed up the system for ourselves. (Yes, I am aware there are a lot of flaws but somehow every other country except India managed not to overload the system. And you are delusional if you think India has a higher number of skilled migrants to offer the US as compared to all other nations.)

I think CO should repeat 2007 and make all categories current since USCIS refuses to give him porting numbers. Porting numbers are crucial to take stock of the situation. If you ignore SOFAD for a second, I'm pretty sure that all of India's 2.8K EB2 quota is being eaten up by porters. How is this a tenable or sensible system?

There will undoubtedly be those who think the situation as not as dour as I make it out to be. But porting (both I and ROW) only has one direction to go - UP. Think of all the EB3s stuck in the system.

EDIT: Interesting that the Indian IT companies pay the lowest salaries out of the top 25 H1B corporate applicants:

http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Top-Visa-Sponsor-2011.aspx?P=1

This includes all the big IT shops: Infy, Wipro, TCS, Patni, Cognizant, L&T Infotech, Satyam, UST Global (seems Indian too). I am sure the high salaries are because they are getting the world's best and the brightest engineers from India. (sarcasm) I was looking at Wikipedia's H1B stats and applications from Indian IT shops have gone down significantly. I bet that L1 apps from the same employers have gone up commensurately. Of course, USCIS does not make those statistics public.

I'm also hoping that there will be some juicy material to read from the Infosys lawsuit. Narayana Murthy's admonishments to Indians to do better ring a bit hollow when his business is founded on body-shopping. He complains about the lack of Indian PhDs in Computer Science. But what opportunities does the Indian IT industry offer them?

[qesehmk]

But then overall isn't the point spec. This is october and the point is - are dates set in October based on Monthly quota?

I think your rest of the talk about demand data vs 485 data - while I understand that difference - is less relevant.

We can always agree to disagree. But this is quite an objective matter. The date movement is irrational and meant to scare EB2I applicants. Nothing else nothing more. At the least it is stupid application of whatever logic CO is trying to sell others. In the larger scheme - the fundamentals are strong enough to move EB2IC date into late 2008 or early 2009 by Sep 2013. So this date movement is absolutely malicious or plain stupid.


Q,

They may have exceeded the monthly allocation of 3.1k in the first 9 months slightly in some months, but clearly the overall EB2-WW final visa numbers say they did not on average exceed the number available to them.

The USCIS Inventory represents all eligible cases in progress at any one time. Since an I-485 might take 4-6 months to process, it represents far more than the numbers that might be approved in any one month.

For Categories or Countries that are usually Current, the USCIS Inventory and Demand data are chalk and cheese.

Look at the numbers in the Inventory. They don't bear any resemblance to the true numbers for EB2-WW. You wouldn't think there were more than 500-600 EB2-WW cases a month if you believed it. Similarly, you would have to believe there were only about 1,400 EB1 cases per month.

In general, EB2-WW has started the FY slowly and built up over the course of the year.

As for EB2-I movements in previous FY, see my addition to my previous post.

Enough I think. If we hold different views on the subject - so be it.

[Spectator]

In the larger scheme - the fundamentals are strong enough to move EB2IC date into late 2008 or early 2009 by Sep 2013.Q,

I am not sure how you think that.

Even without any further porting numbers than are currently in the Demand Data, EB2-I alone needs 20k to clear 2008 cases. EB2-IC needs 24k on the same basis.

That is over 18k plus further porting needed as spillover to clear 2008 PDs.

EB1 approvals have returned near to former levels.

EB5 approvals continue to increase.

In FY2013, EB2-WW has at least a further 6k demand over the normal run rate to accommodate within their allocation. It is possible that USCIS will just allow a bigger backlog.

EB4 is a complete unknown.

It would be extremely difficult to find the required spillover numbers in FY2013 IMO to clear 2008 cases.

If the dates end in early 2008, it would be a pretty good outcome.

It is a great shame (and a little surprising) that CO chose not to put in any comments about EB Cut Off Date movements for the year in the October VB, especially considering what he dis to them. I guess he wants another month to see what happens.

[bvsamrat]

This appears to be the right.

By April/May 2013, the dates will move back to somewhere in 2008- early/mid/late- take your pick.

4-5 years time period for Eb2-I- that is the average norm. Meanwhile EADs will be provided in spurts just to keep the inventory and keep UCIS busy.


Q,

I am not sure how you think that.

Even without any further porting numbers than are currently in the Demand Data, EB2-I alone needs 20k to clear 2008 cases. EB2-IC needs 24k on the same basis.

That is over 18k plus further porting needed as spillover to clear 2008 PDs.

EB1 approvals have returned near to former levels.

EB5 approvals continue to increase.

In FY2013, EB2-WW has at least a further 6k demand over the normal run rate to accommodate within their allocation. It is possible that USCIS will just allow a bigger backlog.

EB4 is a complete unknown.

It would be extremely difficult to find the required spillover numbers in FY2013 IMO to clear 2008 cases.

If the dates end in early 2008, it would be a pretty good outcome.

It is a great shame (and a little surprising) that CO chose not to put in any comments about EB Cut Off Date movements for the year in the October VB, especially considering what he dis to them. I guess he wants another month to see what happens.

[venoo_d]

Hi gurus, My PD is 29Aug2007, any expert guess please.

[tackle]

Hi gurus, My PD is 29Aug2007, any expert guess please.

Well, I'm not an expert. But my PD is close to yours. And in my opinion, I think my PD will become current only in 3rd Q (Apr, 2013).

[ihp62as]

Please help me understand the COD for ROW. If I understand the country caps correctly, EACH country gets 7% of the total visas, and ROW is NOT treated as ONE bucket, correct? If so, then is it really possible that EACH country in ROW has so many applications that EACH country needed to have a COD date established? meaning, for example, applicants from say Japan exceeded 7% and applicants from Jamaica also exceeded 7%? I feel like ROW is being treated as a bucket, because I highly doubt that applicants from MY country have exceeded 7% that they needed to apply cut off date to my country.

[venoo_d]

Well, I'm not an expert. But my PD is close to yours. And in my opinion, I think my PD will become current only in 3rd Q (Apr, 2013).

Thank you.

[openaccount]

Small attempt to estimate EB3I porting from Demand Data released by DOS each month. In September 2011 when DD for October 2011 was released EB3I pending inventory was 54000, EB3I Inventory came down to 47550 for October 2012 DD, EB2I dates retrogressed from June2012 so who ever was eligible must have ported before Jun2012 which is total of 9 months starting Sep2011-May2012, taking that as base figure tried to calculate how much porting we could see for PDs between Jan2003-Aug2007 in FY2013, ignoring DD for PDs prior to Jan2003 as EB3I date is 2002 there may be very few who might port.

DD points to at least 5-6k porting in 12 months, below calculation is for 13 months(Sept2011-Sept2012).

PD --------------Oct2011-------Oct2012------Porting Sept-May2012---------Per Month -------Jun-Sep2012
Prior To---------VB DD----------VB DD-----------(9 months)---------------------Porting/9----------(Estimate)
Jan2004--------11750-----------11025-----------725----------------------------------81--------------------324
Jan2005--------13575-----------12425---------1150--------------------------------127--------------------508
Jan2006----------8825------------8125-----------700----------------------------------78--------------------312
Jan2007--------10775------------9850-----------925---------------------------------103-------------------412
Jan2008----------4150------------3650-----------500----------------------------------55--------------------220
Total--------------49075----------45075---------4000--------------------------------444------------------1776

There was 4 month retrogression from June-August(2012) so any porting applications(inter filing with USCIS) filed would not show up in Demand Data , all these(porting eligible with PD prior to Sep 2004) will be pre-adjudicated starting October 2012.Now FY2013 started with Sept 2004, so in October if we go by above estimated Porting numbers then DOS might get 324+338(2/3 of 508 as EB2I PD is Sept2004)--->662 additional porting numbers from USCIS which might be ready for approval starting November 2012.

In addition to these starting October 2012 there will be new Porting applications(who have started process and waiting for I-140 approvals),that will also have some with PDs prior to Sep 2004. This is not to paint grim picture(which is already) but an attempt from my side to expect what we might see in next 6-9 months.I believe if any movement(right now i am expecting there will be) past 2006 it will happen only in Q4. If porting levels stays below 1500 for first 6 months(Oct2012-Mar2012) then dates might move past 2006 in Q3 itself.

As some one earlier mentioned in this thread "lets hope for best and prepare for worst".

[bvsamrat]

Is this porting new phenomenon ? and not there last year? or before last?


Small attempt to estimate EB3I porting from Demand Data released by DOS each month. In September 2011 when DD for October 2011 was released EB3I pending inventory was 54000, EB3I Inventory came down to 47550 for October 2012 DD, EB2I dates retrogressed from June2012 so who ever was eligible must have ported before Jun2012 which is total of 9 months starting Sep2011-May2012, taking that as base figure tried to calculate how much porting we could see for PDs between Jan2003-Aug2007 in FY2013, ignoring DD for PDs prior to Jan2003 as EB3I date is 2002 there may be very few who might port.

DD points to at least 5-6k porting in 12 months, below calculation is for 13 months(Sept2011-Sept2012).

PD --------------Oct2011-------Oct2012------Porting Sept-May2012---------Per Month -------Jun-Sep2012
Prior To---------VB DD----------VB DD-----------(9 months)---------------------Porting/9----------(Estimate)
Jan2004--------11750-----------11025-----------725----------------------------------81--------------------324
Jan2005--------13575-----------12425---------1150--------------------------------127--------------------508
Jan2006----------8825------------8125-----------700----------------------------------78--------------------312
Jan2007--------10775------------9850-----------925---------------------------------103-------------------412
Jan2008----------4150------------3650-----------500----------------------------------55--------------------220
Total--------------49075----------45075---------4000--------------------------------444------------------1776

There was 4 month retrogression from June-August(2012) so any porting applications(inter filing with USCIS) filed would not show up in Demand Data , all these(porting eligible with PD prior to Sep 2004) will be pre-adjudicated starting October 2012.Now FY2013 started with Sept 2004, so in October if we go by above estimated Porting numbers then DOS might get 324+338(2/3 of 508 as EB2I PD is Sept2004)--->662 additional porting numbers from USCIS which might be ready for approval starting November 2012.

In addition to these starting October 2012 there will be new Porting applications(who have started process and waiting for I-140 approvals),that will also have some with PDs prior to Sep 2004. This is not to paint grim picture(which is already) but an attempt from my side to expect what we might see in next 6-9 months.I believe if any movement(right now i am expecting there will be) past 2006 it will happen only in Q4. If porting levels stays below 1500 for first 6 months(Oct2012-Mar2012) then dates might move past 2006 in Q3 itself.

As some one earlier mentioned in this thread "lets hope for best and prepare for worst".

[openaccount]

Is this porting new phenomenon ? and not there last year? or before last?

No this not new it is happening for past 4 years(more after 2007 when all categories were made Current) but in last 2-3 years it has increased every year, in FY2012 porting was at peak if there was no retrogression from Jun2012 we could have easily seen couple of thousand more porting from EB3-EB21 in those 4 months.

[geterdone]

It is hard for me to believe that they have pre-adjudicated (whatever that means) 96% of 2008 and 81% of 2009 cases. Does this mean they have touched it once and kept it aside or they are all good to go once visa number becomes available? I see people from 2007 getting RFE now, so it is hard for me to believe that they have processed all these applications.



Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. (Does not account for porting, that could change the numbers below especially for 2007).

EB2-I
2007 - 85% (DD-4150, Inv-4904)
2008 - 96% (DD-14500, Inv-15136)
2009 - 81% (DD-10900, Inv-13429)
2010 - 63% (DD-3100, Inv-4912)

EB2-C
2007 - 81% (DD-850, Inv-1046)
2008 - 95% (DD-3150, Inv-3311)
2009 - 79% (DD-2300, Inv-2913)
2010 - 59% (DD-575, Inv-975)

[ChampU]

Is this porting new phenomenon ? and not there last year? or before last?

I am not sure how much of a porting went on before 2007 (Labor substitution was an easier option). It has been "noticeable" since 2007..
.
This year would be something to watch out for, for people willing to port. If the SO is low and if the EB2 - I dates do not move ahead significantly this year, you would see a drop in porting numbers.

[openaccount]

This year would be something to watch out for, for people willing to port. If the SO is low and if the EB2 - I dates do not move ahead significantly this year, you would see a drop in porting numbers.

This is possible only if EB2I stays at Sep-Dec2004 until Aug 2013 and SO is applied only in last 2 months(Aug,Sep). If CO follows this approach then Oct2013 would start with a date somewhere in 2004/2005 as all Porting applications(PDs after 2004) who have I-140 approved and sent interfiling letter to USCIS would be pre-ajudicated by OCT2013 as dates moved beyond 2004 in Aug/Sept2013.

I don't think CO would do that if he is planning to do so then i would say he is an idiot who acts in aggressive manner whether it is moving dates forward or backward.

[A_Tech_Softie]

Given porting is the way to go for EB3, ideally there should be no visas that get allocated to EB3 and those EB3 visa numbers can help compensate for the porting influx in EB2-I.

[GhostWriter]

geterdone, since these numbers show up in demand data so that means the latter (i.e. all good to go except for a visa number). USCIS has been processing about 5-6K EB2-I cases per month for last 6+ months and the total inventory for EB2-I is 38K for PDs 2007-2010. Of course the calculation is only as good as the inventory or demand data.

Also for 2007 the calucaltion is probably incorrect. In Sep demand data there were 4900 cases for all PDs of 2007 and before. In October demand data there are 1350 cases for 2006 and before and 4150 cases strictly for 2007 PDs. It is hard to beleive that percentage of cases processed would be higher for 2008 than 2007 both for India and China even after 6-8 months of filing. The addition of porting cases for 2007 to demand data should have increased the percentage for 2007. Probably some of the 2007 cases in the inventory were old and complicated cases and most of the newly filed 2007 cases in 2011 have been approved. I do not have the answer to this mystery.

For 2008, 2009 and 2010 the numbers have been gradually increasing every month and i do have more confidence in them.


It is hard for me to believe that they have pre-adjudicated (whatever that means) 96% of 2008 and 81% of 2009 cases. Does this mean they have touched it once and kept it aside or they are all good to go once visa number becomes available? I see people from 2007 getting RFE now, so it is hard for me to believe that they have processed all these applications.

[gc_soon]

What's really frustrating is that CO hasn't provided any notes. It's absolutely shameful on his part to say "every effort will be made for the cut off date to reach May 2010 by spring 2013" and then not say anything why he won't do that.

I think we deserve at least an explanation(especially after he gives false hopes) and not leave us to just rely on "meeting notes" from AILA meetings with CO.

[ChampU]

This is possible only if EB2I stays at Sep-Dec2004 until Aug 2013 and SO is applied only in last 2 months(Aug,Sep). If CO follows this approach then Oct2013 would start with a date somewhere in 2004/2005 as all Porting applications(PDs after 2004) who have I-140 approved and sent interfiling letter to USCIS would be pre-ajudicated by OCT2013 as dates moved beyond 2004 in Aug/Sept2013.

I don't think CO would do that if he is planning to do so then i would say he is an idiot who acts in aggressive manner whether it is moving dates forward or backward.

I agree. It is highly unlikely that the numbers stay in 2004/2005. What I want to say is the rapid movement of EB2 in FY-2012 would have prompted the urgency of the EB3-EB2 upgrades.. a slow moving EB2 will lessen the incentive to the upgrade. As small as it maybe, it is still a risk to file for a new PERM and I-140 and unless the reward is immediate,it may not be worth the risk.

Assuming that EB2-I gets about 10-12k (Regular 2.8k+ SO of 7-9k) in FY2013,

If by the end of FY-2013, the dates stay in 2004/2005, it would mean that roughly 10-12k porting applications take up the EB2 numbers in FY 2013. That would mean that roughly 1 in every 3 EB3 applications ( there are 30k EB3 applications in 2003-2005) have ported, which is unusually high considering the state of the economy.. So it is highly unlikely that the dates would stay there..

If the dates stay in 2006, roughly 1k applications will take care of EB2 backlog in inventory numbers and roughly 9-11k applications would go to EB3-EB2 upgrades which means 1 in every 4 applications have ported, which is still high.

If the dates move to mid-2007, 8k applications go to upgrades (roughly 1 in 5) and 2-4k applications go to "original EB2", which is a nightmarish but a plausible scenario..

If dates move to end of 2007, the two categories share a 50-50 load.6k porting, 6k to EB2.. which I think is a likely scenario..

A move to mid-2008 would mean that "original EB2" applicants would take up roughly 12k applications and there is no room to account for porting, unless EB2-I gets anymore than the estimated 10-12k visas. Also, a move to mid-2008 also brings in roughly 2k applications from EB2-C in the picture..

By late Q2, early Q3 the demand for EB2-ROW will become clear. We can then revise the SO and date movement estimates.. For now, my estimate is end of 2007 for end of FY-2013..

[vrs7734]

to rub salt on the wounds of retrogressing PD to 2004; USCIS approved my i140 eb2 in 26 days. It took me only 3 months for perm + i140 and looks like +7 years to get GC.

Once I got email from attorney I said, USCIS should have approved my i140 after 5 years. At least I woild enjoy concurrent filing; huh!!

[gc_soon]

to rub salt on the wounds of retrogressing PD to 2004; USCIS approved my i140 eb2 in 26 days. It took me only 3 months for perm + i140 and looks like +7 years to get GC.

Once I got email from attorney I said, USCIS should have approved my i140 after 5 years. At least I woild enjoy concurrent filing; huh!!

It's useful to have an approved I140, so that your PD is "finalized" so even if you end up moving to another company and redo PERM and I140, you can use your PD from previous employer.

[Pedro Gonzales]

Please help me understand the COD for ROW. If I understand the country caps correctly, EACH country gets 7% of the total visas, and ROW is NOT treated as ONE bucket, correct? If so, then is it really possible that EACH country in ROW has so many applications that EACH country needed to have a COD date established? meaning, for example, applicants from say Japan exceeded 7% and applicants from Jamaica also exceeded 7%? I feel like ROW is being treated as a bucket, because I highly doubt that applicants from MY country have exceeded 7% that they needed to apply cut off date to my country.

ROW is both treated and not treated as one bucket simultaneously. Yes, they allow each country to reach 7% before retrogressing it, but they also limit the total number of visas to all non retrogressed countries to N = 40K - 2.8K x # of retrogressed countries, (in this case there are 2 retrogressed countries, I & C, so roughly 34.4K available to ROW, M & P). So, in this case, a whole bunch of countries have not reached 7% but together they've exceeded 34.4K in visa numbers.

A side issue, is that the 2012 'fiasco' led to the USCIS over-issuing visa numbers to EB2I and C, so ROW didn't actually get the full 34.4K available for that year.

Still, rest assured, ROW will move forward quickly over the next couple of months and you will have no COD soon. Enjoy your green card when that happens and spare a thought for the rest of us when you cast your vote at the 2018 elections.

[suninphx]

Relax. It is not going to take 7 years for you. In a sense, Q is right that the *long term* wait time should be 4 years. The queue will adjust itself. Many people will leave, EB1 will become stricter, job market will deflate after the elections etc. I have seen all phases of the PD. Getting stuck, seriously flying ahead, severely getting back etc.

You can also bet that the next time the DOS faces a demand cliff (PD at May 1, 2010), they will advance the PD rapidly *yet again*. Also, EB3-I is going to be depleted by approximately 24K in the next 4 years (3K regular + 3K porting). That queue will start going faster and porting won't be a factor as much.

And there is always a very good possibility for something like HR 3012 becoming law. I am not giving up on it. It's only a matter of time before a sensible bill like that becomes law.

In short, the long term prospects are there. I would just advice you to concentrate on your job and leave the immigration worries for a later day. It's too early for you, and you may not suffer at all.

Good post. We really need some positive posts like this- specially these days. As we know eventually it may take four, six or more years and we can't control that. But posts like this definitely help keeping our sights on bigger picture.

[gc_soon]

Spec, Any predictions/thoughts based on Oct VB and Demand data?

[gc_soon]

Quoting a comment from a Trackitt thread,
"After looking at the DD and the 485 inventory the only logical cause for the state dept to bring the PD to 2004 must be that they have seen exponential I 140 filings dated 2004, 2005 and 2006 that are not reflected in the DD and will soon be. I guess porting EB3- EB2 before 2007 must have accelerated in the past few months"

This seems to be a good logic, but harsh to hear. Does CO have any data on info of "pending upgrades" (from AILA notes, it seems like USCIS doesn't provide CO that data?). Also from the pending I140 inventory, is there a way to guesstimate the number of porting cases.

It could be possible that after the rapid EB2 movement last year, many EB3 started porting or prepare themselves to be in a position to port soon. If that's the case, the past porting figures would be much lower than the future demand from ported cases. :(

Also, it might be safe to assume EB3 porter on average consumes 3-4 visas (assuming 1 for spouse and 1-2 for kids). Relatively speaking, many EB2 folks might be relatively younger and not have kids.

[nishant2200]

I don't think they are this scientific about it.

I believe, CO will now go back to his annual SO strategy since his buffer kitty is full. And hence, going back to his old style of opening account very cautiously, and then increasing in bursts once he gets clearer picture of annual SO trend.


Quoting a comment from a Trackitt thread,
"After looking at the DD and the 485 inventory the only logical cause for the state dept to bring the PD to 2004 must be that they have seen exponential I 140 filings dated 2004, 2005 and 2006 that are not reflected in the DD and will soon be. I guess porting EB3- EB2 before 2007 must have accelerated in the past few months"

This seems to be a good logic, but harsh to hear. Does CO have any data on info of "pending upgrades" (from AILA notes, it seems like USCIS doesn't provide CO that data?). Also from the pending I140 inventory, is there a way to guesstimate the number of porting cases.

It could be possible that after the rapid EB2 movement last year, many EB3 started porting or prepare themselves to be in a position to port soon. If that's the case, the past porting figures would be much lower than the future demand from ported cases. :(

Also, it might be safe to assume EB3 porter on average consumes 3-4 visas (assuming 1 for spouse and 1-2 for kids). Relatively speaking, many EB2 folks might be relatively younger and not have kids.

[qesehmk]

Friends - we will close the donations poll soon. Please vote for your charity (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=29670#post29670)so that we can donate from the site's ad revenues. As many of you are aware - this site is run as a not for profit. Any new ideas for next month are welcome - I personally am going to add wikipedia to the list.

[redsox2009]

My two cents based on recent cumulative demand Data and Visa BUlletin.

288
From the Cumulative demand data table
Second table shows the visas avaliable per month for country and ROW.

India has 1350 cases prior to 2007 and in Visa bulletin date came to 2004 and based on the number from second table it will take 6 months to hit 2007. Similarly it takes 4 months to touch 2008 and 2 months for row to cross 2012.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I think we should not fret over the last VB for EB2-I. It was determined by 1350 cases before 2007. This is largely due to EB2 – I being unavailable so these cases did not get approved last year itself.

The bulletin itself is driven by the 240 – 250 monthly allocation so the dates have been set almost symbolically to have just this number of individuals eligible. Notice that China has is far ahead because there is hardly any porting for China. EB2-I fundamentals are still ok if not great largely due to flash approvals which definitely ate into EB2 ROW in feb – mar so essentially this year is payback time. Despite all that 15K SOFAD is likely.

Porting also does not seem to be very high I would guesstimate it to be around 4K; however the current backlog prior to 2007 is best attribute to porting last year.
This year the fundamentals are not looking great however the key is how soon EB2 ROW will become current and how will EB1 move.

If HR 3012 does not pass then probably till May the VB for EB2-I will move very slowly because there will be no spillover and there will be more porting cases added so it’s a moving target.

By Sep 2012 my initial estimate is that EB2-I dates will range from 01-APR-2008 to 01-JUL-2008; however the key is monitoring EB2 ROW and EB1 over the first quarter atleast. EB3-I will unfortunately move very slowly as it’s a very dense zone just by a week every VB.

[gkjppp]

Friends I think we should not fret over the last VB for EB2-I. It was determined by 1350 cases before 2007. This is largely due to EB2 – I being unavailable so these cases did not get approved last year itself.

The bulletin itself is driven by the 240 – 250 monthly allocation so the dates have been set almost symbolically to have just this number of individuals eligible. Notice that China has is far ahead because there is hardly any porting for China. EB2-I fundamentals are still ok if not great largely due to flash approvals which definitely ate into EB2 ROW in feb – mar so essentially this year is payback time. Despite all that 15K SOFAD is likely.

Porting also does not seem to be very high I would guesstimate it to be around 4K; however the current backlog prior to 2007 is best attribute to porting last year.
This year the fundamentals are not looking great however the key is how soon EB2 ROW will become current and how will EB1 move.

If HR 3012 does not pass then probably till May the VB for EB2-I will move very slowly because there will be no spillover and there will be more porting cases added so it’s a moving target.

By Sep 2012 my initial estimate is that EB2-I dates will range from 01-APR-2008 to 01-JUL-2008; however the key is monitoring EB2 ROW and EB1 over the first quarter atleast. EB3-I will unfortunately move very slowly as it’s a very dense zone just by a week every VB.

Teddy,For EB2 Apr,2008 by Sep 2012 is almost certain. If USCIS tightens EB1 screws and EB2WW is at its usual rate EB2 may end up anywhere between Aug 2008 to Oct 2008.

[kd2008]

USCIS dashboard updated with July numbers

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

See the deluge of I-140s filed!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=5&charttype=1

Seems like pre-adjudication may be over or nearing completion.

[Spectator]

Moved BC related Q & A to appropriate sub-forum (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?163-Birth-Certificate-Related/page16).

[Spectator]

They can be found here (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf).

RECEIPTS

Applications Received in FY2012 to Date - 67,400

Applications Received in Q4 to Date - 15,800

Receipts by Quarter

Q1 - 13,300
Q2 - 17,100
Q3 - 21,200
Q4 - 15,800 (to date)

PROCESSED

Applications Processed in FY2012 to Date - 63,900

Processed by Quarter

Q1 - 13,000
Q2 - 10,000
Q3 - 20,200
Q4 - 20,700 (to date)

CERTIFICATIONS

Applications Certified in FY2012 to Date - 51,600

Applications Certified in Q4 to Date - 17,800

Certifications by Quarter

Q1 - _9,500
Q2 - _7,100
Q3 - 17,200
Q4 - 17,800 (to date)


56% (28,700) of Certifications are for Indian Citizenship.

% of active PERM applications in Audit Review has increased from 37% as of July 8, 2012 to 45% as of September 16, 2012.

Active PERM applications have reduced from 28,400 as of July 8, 2012 to 23,700 as of September 16, 2012.

[tatikonda]

What does increase in pre-adjudication cases from March 2012 Suggests ??

pre-adjudication cases From March 2012 to Jul 2012.

Mar12 ->>>> 82162
Apr12 ->>>>> 82573
May12->>>>> 88043
Jun12 ->>>>> 95757
Jul12 ->>>>> 98423



USCIS dashboard updated with July numbers

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

See the deluge of I-140s filed!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=5&charttype=1

Seems like pre-adjudication may be over or nearing completion.

[abcx13]

They can be found here (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf).

Applications Received in FY - 67,400

Application in Q4 to Date - 15,800

EB-I demand shows no sign of abating.

[eb2china]

Hi Gurus,

Is there a chance for EB2 China dates to reach 07/2010 during FY 2013.

Thanks for your responses.

[justvisiting]

They can be found here (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf).

RECEIPTS

Applications Received in FY2012 to Date - 67,400

Applications Received in Q4 to Date - 15,800

Receipts by Quarter

Q1 - 13,300
Q2 - 17,100
Q3 - 21,200
Q4 - 15,800 (to date)

PROCESSED

Applications Processed in FY2012 to Date - 63,900

Processed by Quarter

Q1 - 13,000
Q2 - 10,000
Q3 - 20,200
Q4 - 20,700 (to date)

CERTIFICATIONS

Applications Certified in FY2012 to Date - 51,600

Applications Certified in Q4 to Date - 17,800

Certifications by Quarter

Q1 - _9,500
Q2 - _7,100
Q3 - 17,200
Q4 - 17,800 (to date)


56% (28,700) of Certifications are for Indian Citizenship.

% of active PERM applications in Audit Review has increased from 37% as of July 8, 2012 to 45% as of September 16, 2012.

Active PERM applications have reduced from 28,400 as of July 8, 2012 to 23,700 as of September 16, 2012.

Interesting, the total number of audits pending increased only 100, but the % jump is big because the total number of analyst reviews pending decreased.

This probably means audits are getting longer and standard cases are being processed more quickly. Most "easy" approvals on trackitt are in the 58-74 day range.

[Spectator]

Hi Gurus,

Is there a chance for EB2 China dates to reach 07/2010 during FY 2013.

Thanks for your responses.Welcome to the forum.

Unfortunately, there is no prospect of that.

To reach 07/10, EB2-China would require a minimum of about 7.5k approvals in FY2013. Because EB2-India has so many cases compared to EB2-China, that really means SOFAD of > 48k being available in FY2013. That isn't going to happen under any scenario I can imagine.

It is likely that EB2-C will only receive 2.8k visas in FY2013. The maximum that could move EB2-C (without any porting) is about August 2008. Because of the low number of visas available, the date is very sensitive to even low numbers of porting cases for EB2-C.

With no porting and assuming only 2.8k per year is available, EB2-C might reach 07/10 in FY2015.

Only if SOFAD averages more than 19k per year over FY2013 - FY2015 might the time be less than that. You will have to decide whether that is feasible or not.

PS SOFAD equals all possible visas available to EB2-IC (normal allocation + spillover/fall across).

[gc_soon]

Predictions from Ron,
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18202

"Probably not much movement at all. Most likely, the cutoff date will remain stagnant until the second quarter of the fiscal year. Then, it should start moving pretty quickly to get deep into 2009 or early 2010."

Seems very very optimistic.

[cbpds1]

prob Ron is assuming that the president will pass the HR 3012 bill as soon as he gets into office.


Predictions from Ron,
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18202

"Probably not much movement at all. Most likely, the cutoff date will remain stagnant until the second quarter of the fiscal year. Then, it should start moving pretty quickly to get deep into 2009 or early 2010."

Seems very very optimistic.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

2012 USCIS year is ending today. With this we are closing 2012 thread.

Lets continue over to 2013 thread HERE (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013)

Let me take this opportunity to thank first and foremost every single Guru and moderator. Other than their unique strengths and insights - I think we should also thank them for the sheer time and individual attention they put in.

I also thank the moderators especially for keeping the forum clean of spam. It is a thankless job and they do it annonymously. Even I don't know who cleaned what. But the fact that our forum stays clean day after day is a testament to their efforts.

Finally I also thank all the contributors and readers for keeping this forum objective, cooperative, respectful and friendly!

While GC is on everybody's mind - we might as well make this wait enjoyable by walking together.

With those words I am closing this thread - although will keep it open until midnight tonight just in case somebody wants to pen any final thoughts.

I wish everybody a great 2013 USCIS year!!!

All the best.

Q