EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[gc0907]

1: H1 extension is almost same as filing new H1 (Check this out (http://redbus2us.com/documents-needed-for-applying-for-h1b-visa-how-much-does-it-really-cost-what-should-you-not-give/)...)
2: No one here can predict chances of approval or denial. It would be mere a guess.
3: If you can afford go with a lawyer for peace of mind and for any trouble in case you get an RFE.


I work for a small company. They have limited knowledge about immigration. I basically have do everything myself, preparing documents, finding a lawyer, paying all the fees, etc...But at least my company is supportive (e.g., signing the papers I prepared...)

[PD2011]

Thanks, gc0907. I also did google search, and now I have some ideas.



1: H1 extension is almost same as filing new H1 (Check this out (http://redbus2us.com/documents-needed-for-applying-for-h1b-visa-how-much-does-it-really-cost-what-should-you-not-give/)...)
2: No one here can predict chances of approval or denial. It would be mere a guess.
3: If you can afford go with a lawyer for peace of mind and for any trouble in case you get an RFE.

[gc4a_k]

That is also illegal.

I dont think it is. In my case i work in EC (employee client) model. if client is giving X$/hour, the employer gives me X - Y$/per. The Y amount includes administration expense, ssn, medicare + visa fees. Very rarely you will come to know how much the client is paying your employer. so techinically your employer does include visa fees when he is paying you.

[Spectator]

Spec -
your predictions are not pessimistic they are realistic. It is is better to live in reality rather than in assumption.

Had dates progressed in controlled manner EB2IC could have got no more than 16-18K SOFAD instead of 24k SOFAD this could have taken EB2IC FY2012 PD to Oct/Nov 2007 which matches with your earlier prediction for FY2012.

Please continue what you are doing which will give us a better picture.openaccount,

Thank you for the support - it makes me feel a bit better.

In truth, I don't think the absolutely nuclear scenario will happen.

In what is a rather cruel twist, EB2-I will bear the full weight of paying back the extra visas allocated to EB2-IC this year.

In FY2013, EB2-C will get the minimum 2.8k allocation anyway and wouldn't receive any spillover in FY2013 unless EB2-IC SOFAD exceeds around 17-18k. That is very, very unlikely, so EB2-C will not have any reductions due to the extra approvals they received in FY2012. Unfortunately, that is just how the numbers are.

[kd2008]

I concur with Spec's analysis. Just as FY 2012 was a bumper year for EB2IC - albeit artificially, FY2013 will be one of the most darkest and non-progressing kind. Sorry, didn't want to sugar coat it.

I missed my filing by a few months of movement. I think it is going take me 4 more years to file (PD +6 yrs) instead of the usual PD+5 yrs.

[pdfeb09]

Being the lone pessimistic voice doesn't feel good. I don't derive any pleasure from it at all and frankly I am loathe to post predictions because of that.

I'd really like to think I have missed something obvious, but I just can't see it. I appreciate all opinions.

Spec,

You have been realistic all along. We (at least I) would not like to have it any other way. You are doing an amazing job.

Hope you continue to do so .. ( I am being shamelessly and utterly selfish here.. ).

[isantem]

I dont think it is. In my case i work in EC (employee client) model. if client is giving X$/hour, the employer gives me X - Y$/per. The Y amount includes administration expense, ssn, medicare + visa fees. Very rarely you will come to know how much the client is paying your employer. so techinically your employer does include visa fees when he is paying you.

What is so hard to understand? Employer (petitioner) needs to pay the fee by law. I don't know what your client payment to your employer have to do with this discussion.

[vizcard]

I don't disagree with Spec's view. In fact I do think the demand numbers are spot on. I just feel there will be something that ends up giving us more than expected in terms of supply aka SOFAD. I can't remember a time (although I haven't really tracked it) when SOFAD was less than 12-15K. Ofcourse what we have right now is unprecedented so who knows.

i'm a realist tending to pessimist by nature (my wife hates it :P ). But even then i somehow feel that there is a curve ball (or googly for cricket fans) waiting to happen.

PS: I don't mean to give ppl false hopes. Make no mistake, the situation sucks but at least a whole bunch of ppl got EAD which is a blessing.

[Spectator]

I don't disagree with Spec's view. In fact I do think the demand numbers are spot on. I just feel there will be something that ends up giving us more than expected in terms of supply aka SOFAD. I can't remember a time (although I haven't really tracked it) when SOFAD was less than 12-15K. Ofcourse what we have right now is unprecedented so who knows.

i'm a realist tending to pessimist by nature (my wife hates it :P ). But even then i somehow feel that there is a curve ball (or googly for cricket fans) waiting to happen.

PS: I don't mean to give ppl false hopes. Make no mistake, the situation sucks but at least a whole bunch of ppl got EAD which is a blessing.

I can help with the historical SOFAD figures (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards).

Since the initial allocation was different in each year, it is easier to talk about spillover received.

EB2-I received 11.5k spillover in FY2008, 7.3k spillover in FY2009 and 16.9k spillover in FY2010. I would estimate that EB2-I received around 22.5k spillover in FY2011.

We need all views and I know exactly what you mean by something always comes along.

I hope your Googly, Chinaman, Doosra, Reverse Swing or whatever it takes saves the day!

[vizcard]

I moved HR3012 related posts to the Advocacy thread.

[pch053]

I can help with the historical SOFAD figures (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards).

Since the initial allocation was different in each year, it is easier to talk about spillover received.

EB2-I received 11.5k spillover in FY2008, 7.3k spillover in FY2009 and 16.9k spillover in FY2010. I would estimate that EB2-I received around 22.5k spillover in FY2011.

We need all views and I know exactly what you mean by something always comes along.

I hope your Googly, Chinaman, Doosra, Reverse Swing or whatever it takes saves the day!

Spec,
I was going through the numbers from your earlier post and I feel you are spot on with your assumptions. Assuming EB2-ROW remains current for FY 2013, all I485 applications roughly need to be submitted by May'13 in order to get approved by end of Sep'13. We already have ~11K pending EB2-ROW applications plus there will be new applications from July'12 - May'13 that will be approvable by the end of 2013. So, it is one year's quota of EB2-ROW + additional 11K applications. I forgot the exact #'s for FA from EB2-ROW to EB2-I/C in the previous years but I don't remember that to be in the order of 10K - 11K. Or in other words, if the FA is usually less than 11K, we can't expect any FA in 2013 from EB2-ROW to EB2-I/C. Also, for the porting, are you considering only EB2I porting or are you considering porting for EB2-I+C+ROW? CO's estimate for EB3->EB2 porting seemed to be quite high as compared to what we all conjectured but one probable reason was we omitted the ROW contribution while counting the porting numbers.

I haven't followed the EB5 #'s that closely but based on your analysis, it seems that EB5 filings have increased significantly in the last year (maybe, they will ave a cut-off date as well at some point if EB5 doesn't provide any spillover visas). So, the main hope for SO, is any FD from EB1. We know that EB1 approval has increased this year; do we have any information on how the approvals of EB1A, EB1B and EB1C are compared to the past year. I think, statistically EB1C has consumed 60% of the total EB1 allocation; so are we seeing a significant rise in EB1C approvals as well?

Anyway, these are just some of my ramblings and will look forward to your thoughts on the same!

[gc4a_k]

What is so hard to understand? Employer (petitioner) needs to pay the fee by law. I don't know what your client payment to your employer have to do with this discussion.

Dude, read the posts completely before commenting. I commented on Spec's post where he said it is illegal for employers to deduct visa fees from salary. I know employers have to pay by law. Admins, please delete all posts related to this.

[mrdeeds]

Dude, read the posts completely before commenting. I commented on Spec's post where he said it is illegal for employers to deduct visa fees from salary. I know employers have to pay by law. Admins, please delete all posts related to this.

gc4a_k, I get the spirit of your point but unfortunately, what you get is x-y = z. Z is your salary.

Deducting from Z is illegal. Y can include profit margin, overhead costs, G&A etc. etc. However, that's employer's cost bearing (and that's factored in in determining Y) and not yours as far as the legality of it goes.

[asankaran]

Hi Q, Spec, Teddy and other Gurus,

Could some one come up with predictions for EB2 if HR 3012 becomes law by September/October ?

[ajaydons]

Just came across this

http://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/Article.cfm?customel_dataPageID_1502=41746

[sreddy]

Do you see any movement? Anything in news about HR 3012?


Hi Q, Spec, Teddy and other Gurus,

Could some one come up with predictions for EB2 if HR 3012 becomes law by September/October ?

[GhostWriter]

Spec, thanks for a great post (as usual). Your predictions have been quite accurate and more so in this year. Even if there is a 2-3 month variance from what you predict, it will not change the big picture for EB2-I, that in absence of a reform the GC wait times are going to increase significantly and will break the past threshold of 4-5 years for this category. Nothing can be expected from EB2-WW given their own cut-off date. The two positive surprises for 2013 for EB2-I can be
1. HR3012 passes (or some other regulatory relief)
2. EB-1 demand in 2013 decreases. There is no reason it should or should not and as you point out current I-140 filings indicate a sustained high demand but something that can change. Though i agree the chances are low and probably the usage won't reduce significantly even if it does reduce.

I also realize that you are posting your forecasts assuming no changes in the laws and I also realize that it is still soon to expect one. But regulatory changes are a good thing to incorporate in the forecasts (irrespective of one's opinion about them) as they will impact the predictions. Given the recent development (yesterday's hold removal) it might be time to lay out the assumption more explicitly in your post on page 1 or better to have a calculation for the alternate scenario if HR-3012 does pass in 2013 (a lot of people including me would love that calculation :)).

Again, i am a huge fan of your analysis and do not intend to offend you in any way. If there is no reform then i totally agree with what you have presented, i do not think it is pessimistic, seems very realistic to me.



How much Fall Down might we get in FY2013?

...
If EB4 doesn't contribute, then the only Fall Down might be from EB1 itself. Unless EB1 I-140 numbers have dropped dramatically, EB1 is likely to l use 34-36k visas, giving only 4-6k Fall Down. Some of this might even be used by EB2-WW.

That doesn't appear to be sufficient spillover to clear PDs of 2007, unless EB4 makes a contribution.

In the absolute worst case, EB2-I might only have 2.8k visas available in FY2013, which wouldn't even sustain a Cut Off Date in August 2007 once porting is factored in.

Admittedly, I am painting the grimmest possible scenario, but I think it is one we should at least think about.

Even at best, SOFAD is not going to be very high next year IMO. If pressed, I think 8k visas to EB2-I is a maximum. EB2-C will only get 2.8k regardless, but that is enough to move them into 2008 because of their lower number of applications.

Please feel free to rip it apart. I realise I have used fairly aggressive assumptions, but I don't feel comfortable with less at the moment.

Being the lone pessimistic voice doesn't feel good. I don't derive any pleasure from it at all and frankly I am loathe to post predictions because of that.

I'd really like to think I have missed something obvious, but I just can't see it. I appreciate all opinions.



Thanks for confirming Spec. You did not mention any regulatory change like HR3012 under tailwinds. Do you consider it quite unlikely even after the presidential elections are over.

[Spectator]

Ghostwriter,

No offence taken.

I have been running some models, of course, but I prefer to post free of what might happen. There have been developments since the last time I updated the front page post.

I will be happy to offer an updated forecast when we know what has, or might, pass. I think it is a little early yet.

At the moment, we don't even know when it will be effective from. That makes a difference and may be subject to change.

Let me ask you a question.

If we said that Indian Porting is 3k / year at present and Chinese Porting is 1k / year, what would it increase to with a much greater Cut Off Date Movement?

Or, what do you think it is now, how much would it increase?

That is one of the questions I have been asking myself, since it impacts the movement.

[kd2008]

Spec,

You may want to check out PERM data on trackitt. Qualitatively it is pretty good in spotting trends. It is not easy to sort out EB3 to EB2 upgrades but if you do a random sampling for fiscal years, I believe you could calculate YOY increase in porting.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Spec. You played the googly quite well, i was afraid that i might bowl you out :). I agree it is still early and also understand the complications you mentioned.
Here is my quick opinion regarding your porting question.

1. Porting is a function of differential in priority dates and the speed of movement in the two categories. So for EB2-I that differential increased from 5 years as per Oct-2011 bulletin to 8 years as per April-2012 bulletin. I know porting is one of the hardest numbers to estimate as there is not much data but the increase in last six months (if it could be guessed !!) gives us the rate for 3 year change in PD. So if you think porting was 3K per year just before the category became unavailable and it was 2.5K last year then 0.5K is the change caused by 3 years of movement in PD. Add a little for the fact that it was forcibly stopped and prevented some potential candidates to port.

2. For EB2-ROW the differential as per April visa bulletin was 6 years. Their rate of change in porting with movement in PD might be different from EB2-I but for a start i would assume the same number for two. The actual porting numbers can be different, it is just the rate at which porting will increase with per year of movement.

So essentially the estimate for change in porting will come down to how fast EB2 moves vs EB3 as both will move. If the combined EB2 (IC+ ROW) settles at somewhere in 2009 and combined EB3 (IC+ ROW) settles at somewhere in 2004 then we have 5 years of difference. So the porting per year for EB2-I or EB2-ROW should not increase much more than it is now.
It also depends on the speed with which dates move in EB2 vs. EB3 and we will need to see how that changes with the new bill.

3. An alternative argument can be that merging various countries will not change the average speed or total allocation in EB2 or EB3. It will increase the speed in EB2-I while decreasing it slightly in Eb2-ROW. Same for EB3. So if porting increases in ROW it might be offset by decrease in porting for I. It sounds weird but EB3-I will have more hope in their own category than now.


The above are just some thoughts and could be quite off.
Also if you have been thinking about it then there is nothing i could have said above that you wouldn't have thought of already :)



Ghostwriter,

No offence taken.

I have been running some models, of course, but I prefer to post free of what might happen. There have been developments since the last time I updated the front page post.

I will be happy to offer an updated forecast when we know what has, or might, pass. I think it is a little early yet.

At the moment, we don't even know when it will be effective from. That makes a difference and may be subject to change.

Let me ask you a question.

If we said that Indian Porting is 3k / year at present and Chinese Porting is 1k / year, what would it increase to with a much greater Cut Off Date Movement?

Or, what do you think it is now, how much would it increase?

That is one of the questions I have been asking myself, since it impacts the movement.

[veni001]

2. EB-1 demand in 2013 decreases. There is no reason it should or should not and as you point out current I-140 filings indicate a sustained high demand but something that can change. Though i agree the chances are low and probably the usage won't reduce significantly even if it does reduce.


How much Fall Down might we get in FY2013?

...
If EB4 doesn't contribute, then the only Fall Down might be from EB1 itself. Unless EB1 I-140 numbers have dropped dramatically, EB1 is likely to l use 34-36k visas, giving only 4-6k Fall Down. Some of this might even be used by EB2-WW.

MurthyBulletin : Vol. XVIII, no. 28; 13.Jul.2012

Positive Trends in EB1 Petitions (http://www.murthy.com/2012/07/09/positive-trends-in-eb1-petitions-matter-of-kazarian/?utm_source=MurthyBulletin&utm_campaign=85a048298a-MurthyBulletin_Vol_XVIII_no_28_13_Jul_2012&utm_medium=email)

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Veni. So the scrutiny in EB1 will continue to be high though the implementation will become more consistent across adjudicators. At the same time lawyers seem to be getting smarter to get cases approved in the higher scrutiny environment. So the net effect will become more clear over next few months.
The quote within quote in your post was quite cool !!


MurthyBulletin : Vol. XVIII, no. 28; 13.Jul.2012

Positive Trends in EB1 Petitions (http://www.murthy.com/2012/07/09/positive-trends-in-eb1-petitions-matter-of-kazarian/?utm_source=MurthyBulletin&utm_campaign=85a048298a-MurthyBulletin_Vol_XVIII_no_28_13_Jul_2012&utm_medium=email)

[kd2008]

AILA has posted this:

FY2012 Employment-Based Fifth Preference Visa Usage (.pdf 458 KB) DOS chart with EB-5 visa usage for October 2011 through June 2012. Special thanks to Stephen Yale-Loehr.

Unfortunately, it is restricted. If any one has access to this data please post. Thanks!

[openaccount]

AILA has posted this:

FY2012 Employment-Based Fifth Preference Visa Usage (.pdf 458 KB) DOS chart with EB-5 visa usage for October 2011 through June 2012. Special thanks to Stephen Yale-Loehr.

Unfortunately, it is restricted. If any one has access to this data please post. Thanks!

kd,

here it is

http://lawbw.com/home/eb5-visa-usage-as-of-62012top-5-countries/


EB5 visa usage as of 6/2012(top 5 countries)

On July 11, 2012, Charlie Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control at the State Department, provided the FY2012 Employment-Based Fifth preference issuance totals for the top five countries (89%), for the period October through June. He expects that the FY2012 EB-5 visa usage will be approximately 6,200.--Matches exactly with Spec's earlier estimate

Country C5 T5 I5 R5 Total

China 60 85 3,562 3 3,710

Korea, South 7 12 316 0 335

Taiwan 3 4 99 0 106

Venezuela 0 6 76 0 82

Iran 2 2 65 0 69

Worldwide 114; 134; 4,560; 5; 4,813

China counts 77% of total EB5 visa usage.

C5 is traditional investor in TEA

T5 is traditional investor in non TEA;

I5 is regional center program for TEA;

R5 is regional center program for none TEA.

Only 5% of EB5 visas were issued to non regional center investors.

It looks that we will not see EB5 visa running out this year. If the regional center law is extended in September, 2012, which is likely, we think we may see EB5 visa numbers running out in 2013.

Based on this we can forget about any SO from EB5 in future.

[Spectator]

openaccount,

Good job!

I'll have to be quicker!

I was just about to post that as well.

[openaccount]

openaccount,

I'll have to be quicker!

I was just about to post that as well.

next time!

Spec, If EB5 exceeds their annual Quota will SO from EB4(if any) got to EB5 first.

[Spectator]

next time!

Spec, If EB5 exceeds their annual Quota will SO from EB4(if any) got to EB5 first.openaccount,

No.

EB4 can only Fall Up to EB1.

[pch053]

So, what can we expect this year from EB5? Around 3800 (considering 6200 visas are consumed in EB5) spillover to EB1 which might provide 3800 or less FD to EB2. Any spillover visas in EB2 will go to EB2-ROW first; so is there a possibility EB2-ROW PDs will move from now until Sep'12? Or is the case that the spillover that might be provided by EB5 has already been used up during the quarterly spillovers?

[Spectator]

So, what can we expect this year from EB5? Around 3800 (considering 6200 visas are consumed in EB5) spillover to EB1 which might provide 3800 or less FD to EB2. Any spillover visas in EB2 will go to EB2-ROW first; so is there a possibility EB2-ROW PDs will move from now until Sep'12? Or is the case that the spillover that might be provided by EB5 has already been used up during the quarterly spillovers?
pch,

As far as I am concerned all expected spillover has already been given.

It only remains to see whether EB1 hits the maximum figure allowed (which is less than 40k) to reach 140k total visas. If it looks like it will hit it, some of EB1 may retrogress in September.

I think it is mighty close, if EB4 is not providing any numbers. I don't think the magic number for EB1 is more than 35k and they appear to be at nearly 30k already.

EB2 appears to have used around 49k to date, which means EB2 has used 9k spillover already. That would reduce the maximum for EB1 to 31k. Add on 4k from EB5 and you get 35k as the maximum that EB1 can use this year, assuming EB4 makes no contribution to EB1.

IMO, there is zero chance of EB2-WW moving forward in September.

Your view of the numbers used may differ, but I am sure you get the idea.

[vizcard]

I'd like EB1 to finish without a COD. one less "headwind".

[gs1968]

Senators Leahy and Grassley are co-sponsoring a Bill to make permanent the EB-5 program which they hope will eliminate uncertainty of the future of the program and improve usage.Currently these programs have been extended periodically for terms of between 1-3 years. This might make it more attractive to invest in these Regional centers.Traditionally wealthy Chinese families have been the biggest users of the Program. Is there a likelihood that this Bill might be included with the HR 3012 Senate version?

http://www.leahy.senate.gov/press/leahy-introduces-bipartisan-bill-to-permanently-authorize-job-creating-foreign-investment-program

I still have no clue why the EB-5 is part of the Employment Based immigration program.The beneficiaries bring no skills to this country except a fat wallet and should not eat into the annual 140,000 limit

[Spectator]

Senators Leahy and Grassley are co-sponsoring a Bill to make permanent the EB-5 program which they hope will eliminate uncertainty of the future of the program and improve usage.Currently these programs have been extended periodically for terms of between 1-3 years. This might make it more attractive to invest in these Regional centers.Traditionally wealthy Chinese families have been the biggest users of the Program. Is there a likelihood that this Bill might be included with the HR 3012 Senate version?

http://www.leahy.senate.gov/press/leahy-introduces-bipartisan-bill-to-permanently-authorize-job-creating-foreign-investment-program

I still have no clue why the EB-5 is part of the Employment Based immigration program.The beneficiaries bring no skills to this country except a fat wallet and should not eat into the annual 140,000 limitThe same could be said for EB4 as well (except they don't even bring the fat wallet).

But if they were both removed from EB, then the 140k limit would reduce to 120.1k and there would be no possibility of using any unused visas either.

[pch053]

As of now, there seems to be a lot factors that might impede EB2-I/C movement in 2013:
1) If EB1 has a COD in Sep bulletin, there will be more EB1 cases to approve in FY13. Even if they don't have a COD, they will be using the quota of around 40K.
2) EB5 will run out of it's yearly quota in FY13; so no SO from EB5
3) We don't know much about EB4 and statistically they haven't contributed much to the spillovers
4) EB2-ROW will have more approvals just because of the COD they have for the last 3 months of FY'12
5) Not sure how EB3->EB2 porting will be in the coming year as compared to the previous years; if we assume it to be the same as we have know, it will consume decent # of visas

Sorry to portray a grim picture but can't think of that many positives of EB2-I/C for the coming year. As Spec suggested, in the worst case scenario, there will be no FD from EB1 and EB2-ROW will consume its quota (i.e. no FA from EB2-ROW), meaning EB2-I/C will be left with their normal quota of 2800. I feel this might be true for EB2C as they have a lot fewer pending applications but EB2I will probably get some spillovers (even though, it will be a lot less than before). Will be happy if we are all proven wrong (maybe due to some unforeseen reason that suddenly props up)!

[suninphx]

Seems to be season of pessimistic predictions ...oh well...it's called being realistic isn't it?

[kkruna]

Time to get some scenario if HR 3012 passes!

Promise we will not get expectation grow on us ...

[vizcard]

Time to get some scenario if HR 3012 passes!

Promise we will not get expectation grow on us ...

IF HR3012 passes, EB2IC gets 85% of annual quota (for FY2013) of which most will come to EB2I. So we are talking about 30-35K SOFAD in 2013. Without going back and looking at Inventory and Demand data, I assume we will clear 2008 PDs with that number.

[pch053]

There are roughly 21K EB2-I and 4.5K EB2-C pending applications till end of 2008. If EB2-I/C gets 30K - 34K SOFAD in 2013, the PDs will move well into 2009. For 2009, there are ~13.5K EB2-I and ~3K EB2-C applications and the COD will be somewhere in 2009. But, I think there are too many assumptions & uncertainties involved with HR3012 now to make any reasonable prediction at this point of time.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Guys , based on all the statistics and indicators so far , practically we will not see EB2 India cross Dec 07 until 2014 quota kicks in. I think this makes the 2007 PD wait almost to 7 yrs . Correct me if Im wrong .

[chengisk]

Guys , based on all the statistics and indicators so far , practically we will not see EB2 India cross Dec 07 until 2014 quota kicks in. I think this makes the 2007 PD wait almost to 7 yrs . Correct me if Im wrong .

Technically it is approximately 5 years if you are within a fiscal year. But when you look at it from the calendar year point of view, it will range anywhere between 4 and 7 years. But then cases from oct/nov/dec 2007 are proper 2008 cases.

[vizcard]

FYI -I moved a few posts about changing jobs with AC21 to the Post 485 filing thread.

[eb2visa]

OFLC Performance Data

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm

[veni001]

Off topic but worth reading.

LCA – Extensive Revisions Proposed (http://www.murthy.com/2012/07/13/labor-condition-application-extensive-revisions-proposed/)

[vizcard]

Off topic but worth reading.

LCA – Extensive Revisions Proposed (http://www.murthy.com/2012/07/13/labor-condition-application-extensive-revisions-proposed/)

Very interesting. This plus Grassley's HR3012 amendments will make the process painful.

[Spectator]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf

Total Received - 49,700
Total Certified - 34,900

Total in Q3 to Date Received - 19,300 (39% of YTD total)
Total in Q3 to Date Certified - 17,200 (49% of YTD total)

[abcx13]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf

Total Received - 49,700
Total Certified - 34,900

Total in Q3 to Date Received - 19,300 (39% of YTD total)
Total in Q3 to Date Certified - 17,200 (49% of YTD total)

The damn audit percentage just keeps going up and up. I don't like it one bit because my company will be filing soon.

Also, Indian IT migrants are completely dominating the PERM pool.

[redsox2009]

Based on the "Updated PERM Statistics", I think Canada and South Korea might have EB2 cutoff dates in future. Any Thoughts?

[justvisiting]

The damn audit percentage just keeps going up and up. I don't like it one bit because my company will be filing soon.

Also, Indian IT migrants are completely dominating the PERM pool.

The audit % listed there is not the % of PERMs that are being audited. It is the % of cases pending that are pending because they are audits.

Since audits take alonger to clear, the % of pending cases that are audits should be higher than the % of audits.

I hope I made sense.

For example, say 1,000 PERMs are applied for each month. Of those 100 go to audit. The other 900 go to analyst review and are cleared in two months. After six months of this going on, you see the following:
PERMs pending: 600 audits + 1800 analyst review = 2400. the audit % looks like its 25%, but we just said that it was only 10%.

[Spectator]

Based on the "Updated PERM Statistics", I think Canada and South Korea might have EB2 cutoff dates in future. Any Thoughts?redsox,

I don't think there is any chance of that because the 7% is based on EB & FB combined numbers. Normally, that is 7% of 226,000 + 140,000 = 25,620.

In FY2010 (the last figures currently available) Canada used 6,565 total FB & EB visas (1.74% of that yearly FB & EB numbers) and South Korea used 14,481 total visas (3.84%).

Both Canada and South Korea use insignificant numbers of FB numbers (0.3% and 1.1% in FY2010) which allows them to use more than 7% in EB (in FY2010 South Korea used 7.9% of EB (Canada only used 3.9%)) and still stay well within the overall 7% limit.

Even if numbers ramped up significantly, as you can see, there is little chance of reaching the overall 7% limit.

[abcx13]

The audit % listed there is not the % of PERMs that are being audited. It is the % of cases pending that are pending because they are audits.

Since audits take alonger to clear, the % of pending cases that are audits should be higher than the % of audits.

I hope I made sense.

For example, say 1,000 PERMs are applied for each month. Of those 100 go to audit. The other 900 go to analyst review and are cleared in two months. After six months of this going on, you see the following:
PERMs pending: 600 audits + 1800 analyst review = 2400. the audit % looks like its 25%, but we just said that it was only 10%.

I was assuming a steady state backlog but yes, I understand what you mean. In your case, the audit backlog would be steadily increasing. So earlier the audit percentage was closer to 25-30% and now it's higher...so they've either gotten slower or they are just auditing more. I guess Trackitt might have better data, albeit a smaller sample size.

[justvisiting]

I was assuming a steady state backlog but yes, I understand what you mean. In your case, the audit backlog would be steadily increasing. So earlier the audit percentage was closer to 25-30% and now it's higher...so they've either gotten slower or they are just auditing more. I guess Trackitt might have better data, albeit a smaller sample size.

OR, they are getting faster with the analyst reviews, which from trackitt it looks like they have: it has reduced from 120 days in March to about 60 days now.

[shreyasai2004]

Texas Service Center Processing timings are moved to January 11, 2012.

[qesehmk]

very good. Thanks. That means next demand data will show all preadjudicated cases for EB2IC from Texas center. Likely Nebrasca shouldn't be too far behind.
Texas Service Center Processing timings are moved to January 11, 2012.

[vizcard]

Texas Service Center Processing timings are moved to January 11, 2012.

I never really understood what that date meant. What does that really mean? Does it mean that ALL cases prior have been adjudicated? coz we know there are other Jan/Feb cases that have been "processed" given the RFEs that we know of.

[vizcard]

very good. Thanks. That means next 485 inventory will show all preadjudicated cases for EB2IC from Texas center. Likely Nebrasca shouldn't be too far behind.

Q
did you mean demand data? these should already be in the inventory.

[qesehmk]

Q
did you mean demand data? these should already be in the inventory.
Oops. Yes I did. Will correct my post above.

[vizcard]

Texas Service Center Processing timings are moved to January 11, 2012.
I never really understood what that date meant. What does that really mean? Does it mean that ALL cases prior have been adjudicated? coz we know there are other Jan/Feb cases that have been "processed" given the RFEs that we know of.

Any takers?

[qesehmk]

vizcard

***ALL** would be true as long as you exclude the cases that have issues or are already denied.
Also if they are processing MMYYYY today then MMYYYY - X months where X is the processing time would be grey area. Everything prior should be preadjudicated.


Any takers?

[vizcard]

vizcard

***ALL** would be true as long as you exclude the cases that have issues or are already denied.
Also if they are processing MMYYYY today then MMYYYY - X months where X is the processing time would be grey area. Everything prior should be preadjudicated.

Thanks Q.
I do think that the cases on or before the MMYYYY date have reached some conclusion i.e. no pending RFEs. Otherwise the date would be much further ahead. Kanmani (Feb filer), for example, already had her RFE. There are other Jan filers who are already greened. In any case, this does not jive with the statement below from the Instructions related to processing time.

However, if that office is taking longer than our processing goal to handle the form type in question, you will see the filing date (e.g., "April 10, 2003") of the last case we processed on the date the website chart was last updated.

[qesehmk]

yes. so as long as they are within their processing times - generally we could say that there is some grey area around those dates. But everybody prior to grey area should have received a -ve decision an RFE or the case is preadj and nothing has been communicated.
Thanks Q.
I do think that the cases on or before the MMYYYY date have reached some conclusion i.e. no pending RFEs. Otherwise the date would be much further ahead. Kanmani (Feb filer), for example, already had her RFE. There are other Jan filers who are already greened. In any case, this does not jive with the statement below from the Instructions related to processing time.

However, if that office is taking longer than our processing goal to handle the form type in question, you will see the filing date (e.g., "April 10, 2003") of the last case we processed on the date the website chart was last updated.

[houstonrocket]

Q / Viz,

I filed on Jan 4th 2012 and have not received any updates other than "Acceptance" email. What should I make of this with respect to the processing time of Jan 12? I am in Texas Service Center ofcourse.

Thanks,

[kd2008]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=5&charttype=1 for I-485

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1 for I-140

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=13&office=6&charttype=1 for I-129

[veni001]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=5&charttype=1 for I-485

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1 for I-140

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=13&office=6&charttype=1 for I-129

Thanks kd,

Increase in I-140 receipts is consistent with PERM certifications (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_select_statis_oct2011_may_2012.pdf).

[vizcard]

Q / Viz,

I filed on Jan 4th 2012 and have not received any updates other than "Acceptance" email. What should I make of this with respect to the processing time of Jan 12? I am in Texas Service Center ofcourse.

Thanks,

Call up the National Service help desk and check on that. If that's not helpful, get an Infopass appointment to meet a USCIS officer in person.

[Spectator]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=5&charttype=1 for I-485

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1 for I-140

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=13&office=6&charttype=1 for I-129kd,

There is something screwy with the I-485 Pre-adjudicated numbers and Pending numbers.

All the historical Pre-adjudicated figures have changed, but the figures reported for May are the same as the figure reported for April when that was updated. March becomes April etc. The Pending figure then gets changed because it appears to be derived by Pending = A Total Pending & Preadjudicated Figure minus Preadjudicated as the sums of the two haven't changed.

When the April figures were released, Pending (NSC&TSC) = 90,876 and Pre-adjudicated (NSC&TSC) = 87,950 - Total = 178,826
Now the April figure says, Pending (NSC&TSC) = 96,370 and Pre-adjudicated (NSC&TSC) = 82,456 - Total = 178,826

The May figure for preadjudicated also shows as 87,950. That is too much of a coincidence when the figures have all stepped one month out of line. The Total for May is 172,834.

I think it is a mistake, which I hope gets corrected next month, but it's a shame when we have been waiting for the data.

[chengisk]

That is odd. But did you see the update on USCIS about their leap month?

:)

[shreyasai2004]

I got this information form USCIS for my SR

Thank you for contacting our office regarding the status of your application. USCIS is committed to oversee lawful immigration to the United States of America. Issues may come up that can delay the processing of cases such as security checks, priority dates and visa availability. Security checks on each case have to be complete and all documentary and eligibility requirements have to be met. Your application is pending, awaiting final review and/or visa allocation. Please note that USCIS does not set priority dates nor does it control the issuance of visas. This function is controlled by the Department of State (DOS). You may check priority dates and visa availability at www.travel.state.gov. There is no further information we can give you regarding the status of your case


what is that meaning is my case is pre-adjudicated or ??

[vizcard]

I got this information form USCIS for my SR

Thank you for contacting our office regarding the status of your application. USCIS is committed to oversee lawful immigration to the United States of America. Issues may come up that can delay the processing of cases such as security checks, priority dates and visa availability. Security checks on each case have to be complete and all documentary and eligibility requirements have to be met. Your application is pending, awaiting final review and/or visa allocation. Please note that USCIS does not set priority dates nor does it control the issuance of visas. This function is controlled by the Department of State (DOS). You may check priority dates and visa availability at www.travel.state.gov. There is no further information we can give you regarding the status of your case


what is that meaning is my case is pre-adjudicated or ??

They basically said a lot but didn't saying anything. This is a very generic response.

[EB2Jun08]

Hi Guys,

I recently came back to US from India trip and i used my EAD/AP card to enter US, My I-94 was stamped as parole. My H1 is still valid until Mar 2012 but i didn't go for stamping and entered US on AP.

Now my HR asked to reverify myself after the reentry to US. They looked my original EAD/AP card,I-94 etc and took the copies. I asked them whether i need to fill new I-9 form with EAD information they said no. I asked them whether i am in EAD or H1 status now ,they said your most current verification document is the status you are in.

I am little confused here, want to know whether i am in EAD or H1. I or My HR didn't filled new I-9 from is that means i am still in H1 or status automatically changes to EAD? I am working for same company before the trip.Gurus, please advise.

[Spectator]

Hi Guys,

I recently came back to US from India trip and i used my EAD/AP card to enter US, My I-94 was stamped as parole. My H1 is still valid until Mar 2012 but i didn't go for stamping and entered US on AP.

Now my HR asked to reverify myself after the reentry to US. They looked my original EAD/AP card,I-94 etc and took the copies. I asked them whether i need to fill new I-9 form with EAD information they said no. I asked them whether i am in EAD or H1 status now ,they said your most current verification document is the status you are in.

I am little confused here, want to know whether i am in EAD or H1. I or My HR didn't filled new I-9 from is that means i am still in H1 or status automatically changes to EAD? I am working for same company before the trip.Gurus, please advise.EB2Jun08,

Although, after entering the USA using AP, you are a Parolee and therefore not in H1B status, the Cronin Memo says that, if you enter the USA using AP, failing to use the EAD will not be considered Unauthorized Employment, if

You were in H1B status prior to departing the USA.
The H1B approval has not expired, and
You return to work only for the H1B sponsoring Employer.

Your HR is correct that you are a Parolee, but the I-9 does not need to be updated.


Discussion of the Cronin memo (http://www.murthy.com/2008/03/21/effect-of-travel-while-in-h1b-l-1-status-and-pending-i-485/)

The Cronin Memo (http://shusterman.com/h1blvisasmemoworkingadvanceparole.html)

[vedu]

Hi guys,

I have a similar question. Few months ago my spouse received EAD/AP combo card after filing for dependent I-485. She was in F-1 status at the time and had 20 hours/week assistantship. After receiving EAD, she did not report it to school and continued to be on I-20 (international student status). Last week, she received a new I-20 with some graduate program level minor updates. She still continues to work as an international student and receives assistantship from the school. My question is whether her student status is valid? Can she continue to be in student status and not use EAD? Or should we have reported her EAD status to her school? Other question is, will there be any problem with her future EAD renewal because of this?

Note- There is no travel involved in this case and AP was never used.

[Pundit Arjun]

EB2Jun08,

Although, after entering the USA using AP, you are a Parolee and therefore not in H1B status, the Cronin Memo says that, if you enter the USA using AP, failing to use the EAD will not be considered Unauthorized Employment, if

You were in H1B status prior to departing the USA.
The H1B approval has not expired, and
You return to work only for the H1B sponsoring Employer.

Your HR is correct that you are a Parolee, but the I-9 does not need to be updated.


Discussion of the Cronin memo (http://www.murthy.com/2008/03/21/effect-of-travel-while-in-h1b-l-1-status-and-pending-i-485/)

The Cronin Memo (http://shusterman.com/h1blvisasmemoworkingadvanceparole.html)

EB2Jun08 & Spec,

This is what I received from my attorney when I asked about re-entering using AP : "We typically advise that if you plan to travel on the Advance Parole, then you should be working on the EAD, not the H-1B. This is because when you re-enter the US on an AP, you are being paroled into the US. You are not being admitted in H-1B status. You could at that point start using the EAD as the basis of your work authorization (having the company update the I-9 in the process) and keep the H-1B as back up in case anything should go wrong with your permanent residency case.".

[EB2Jun08]

Thanks Guys for the detailed explanation.

[Umesh1209]

I thought I will let people know of what is happening in some cases and also I would like some expert opinion on my case. I am the primary EB2)
I filed for my and wife's 485, AP and EAD. Everything was fine in my wife's case. We did our finger printing on the last week of Mar

1. I got my ead card in the last week of March but had my wife's photo
2. We called USCIS and they asked us to file for 485 alone, which we did in the first week of April along with the original EAD
3. I got an RFE in the 3rd of June to return my EAD card. We responded saying that we returned it.
4. I got my second EAD card on 1st week of July but it did not have my AP details(it is not a combo card).
5. My AP(131) is approved but I have not received my approval notice


I took an infopass appointment where they acknowledged their issue and they gave supervisor's address. They are asking me to send a letter explaining my case and also send the original(second) EAD card.

My questions - is it safe to send my EAD card without any applications(131 or 765). Have anyone faced this issue before.

Do I have any other options to expedite my EAD card?

Thanks for your help

Sorry to post my issue in this thread. Please move it to other thread if it is inappropriate.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I took an infopass appointment where they acknowledged their issue and they gave supervisor's address. They are asking me to send a letter explaining my case and also send the original(second) EAD card.

Seems like the text-book definition of cluster f*#k



My questions - is it safe to send my EAD card without any applications(131 or 765). Have anyone faced this issue before.

Don't see any issue (or an alternative, to be honest). Just make sure you scan / photocopy the card for your records, use certified mail to send the card (and keep the receipts to prove that you sent it to them). Also, i'd keep the details from your infopass appointment (officers name, badge number, date and time of appointment, etc) for your records.



Do I have any other options to expedite my EAD card?

I don't see any. You can always reach out to your congressman but I think that's overkill at this stage.



Sorry to post my issue in this thread. Please move it to other thread if it is inappropriate.

One of us will move it to the I485 thread after you've had some visibility here.

[Umesh1209]

Pedro,
Thanks for your response. I have done most of what you said. Looks like I have no options at this point in time.




Don't see any issue (or an alternative, to be honest). Just make sure you scan / photocopy the card for your records, use certified mail to send the card (and keep the receipts to prove that you sent it to them). Also, i'd keep the details from your infopass appointment (officers name, badge number, date and time of appointment, etc) for your records.

[veni001]

Hi guys,

I have a similar question. Few months ago my spouse received EAD/AP combo card after filing for dependent I-485. She was in F-1 status at the time and had 20 hours/week assistantship. After receiving EAD, she did not report it to school and continued to be on I-20 (international student status). Last week, she received a new I-20 with some graduate program level minor updates. She still continues to work as an international student and receives assistantship from the school. My question is whether her student status is valid? Can she continue to be in student status and not use EAD? Or should we have reported her EAD status to her school? Other question is, will there be any problem with her future EAD renewal because of this?

Note- There is no travel involved in this case and AP was never used.

Yes, her student status is valid as log as she maintain her valid F1 status or until USCIS adjudicate her 485.

Unless she want to switch to EAD no further action is needed.

[vedu]

Veni,

Thanks for the confirmation, appreciated! She should be in F1 status for the foreseeable future.


Yes, her student status is valid as log as she maintain her valid F1 status or until USCIS adjudicate her 485.

Unless she want to switch to EAD no further action is needed.

[luckycub]

Hi all, I need your input -

I am currently on H1B in academia while I have received my EAD this March. If I switch to EAD, suppose my H1B will automatically become invalid. My question is after I switch to EAD, can I work for multiple employers? or in other word, can I work in multiple positions? Thanks a lot!

[Pundit Arjun]

Hi all, I need your input -

I am currently on H1B in academia while I have received my EAD this March. If I switch to EAD, suppose my H1B will automatically become invalid. My question is after I switch to EAD, can I work for multiple employers? or in other word, can I work in multiple positions? Thanks a lot!

Yes, you can work for Multiple employers/positions using the EAD. Good luck :)

[luckycub]

Yes, you can work for Multiple employers/positions using the EAD. Good luck :)

That's much better! Thanks a lot!

[JJcalifornian]

just a follow up question, My employer is holding H1B and maintaining my H1B status, can I work for some one else using my EAD on a part time basis?

[vizcard]

just a follow up question, My employer is holding H1B and maintaining my H1B status, can I work for some one else using my EAD on a part time basis?

Once you use your EAD, your H1 is invalidated whether or not its the same employer.

[qesehmk]

vizcard - that's wrong. H1 stays valid. Just that your status is no longer H1. One can always start using H1 as long as the underlying 797 is valid.
Once you use your EAD, your H1 is invalidated whether or not its the same employer.

[vizcard]

vizcard - that's wrong. H1 stays valid. Just that your status is no longer H1. One can always start using H1 as long as the underlying 797 is valid.

You are correct. I meant H1 status when I said H1.

Although to be in H1 status again (after going on EAD status), one has to stop working on EAD. I don't think you can work on both EAD and H1 at the same time. That was the original poster's question. Is this correct ?

[JJcalifornian]

vizcard - that's wrong. H1 stays valid. Just that your status is no longer H1. One can always start using H1 as long as the underlying 797 is valid.

Thanks Vizcard/Q,

I was in doubt as EAD is not a status but a permission to work for anyone. As long as my employer is keeping my H1 and I'm staying with them I thought I can hold the H1 status. So if I want to take up a part time job I need to file I-9 with my employer and I can use I-9 to work for a different employer as well.

[qesehmk]

Vizcard - EAD is total freedom. You can take up as many jobs as you want and no your H1 status doesnt get affected by use of EAD unless you used EAD as work authorization for the job you are holding using H1 authorization. In other words your H1 status can get affected if you stop using your H1 authorization.

If you use H1 for one type of employment and use EAD for another - that sounds perfectly alright to me.


You are correct. I meant H1 status when I said H1.

Although to be in H1 status again (after going on EAD status), one has to stop working on EAD. I don't think you can work on both EAD and H1 at the same time. That was the original poster's question. Is this correct ?

[qesehmk]

That is correct.

If your H1 with your current employer is in good standing ... I don't think you need to update I-9 with them.

With any potentially new employer you of course should use EAD - unless you do hold a second H1.

So that's another thing - by the way - a person can hold multiple H1s and work for multiple employers at the same time.
I was in doubt as EAD is not a status but a permission to work for anyone. As long as my employer is keeping my H1 and I'm staying with them I thought I can hold the H1 status. So if I want to take up a part time job I need to file I-9 with my employer and I can use I-9 to work for a different employer as well.

[luckycub]

vizcard - that's wrong. H1 stays valid. Just that your status is no longer H1. One can always start using H1 as long as the underlying 797 is valid.

Hi Q,
So, I can keep my H1B with the current employer, and use my EAD for other jobs as long as I dont use the EAD for the current employer, my H1B stays valid till expiration -
Can I still be able to refile or renew my H1B when the current one expires and I used my EAD for other jobs?
Thank you!

[qesehmk]

I think so. Yes.

p.s. - H1 authorization always remain valid till expiration. Whether you choose to be in H1 status or not is your choice. And yes you can switch between statuses (of course use a good lawyer as needed!)
Hi Q,
So, I can keep my H1B with the current employer, and use my EAD for other jobs as long as I dont use the EAD for the current employer, my H1B stays valid till expiration -
Can I still be able to refile or renew my H1B when the current one expires and I used my EAD for other jobs?
Thank you!

[gs1968]

I don't know if this has been analyzed already or not

http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=40699

[veni001]

I don't know if this has been analyzed already or not

http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=40699

Yes, Spec did few pages back (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2012/page308)

[kumar19]

Hi, a few general questions. Mine is EB2I Texas with PD 07/31/2007. My wife started working on EAD. EAD expires 01/2013. I am still on H1. She is tavelling to India tomorrow.

1. carrying her EAD/AP card, Prior H1/H-4 status approval ( just for the sake of it) documents good enough? Anything else I am missing?
2. I am hoping to get my GC this oct/nov. but at that time my wife ( using EAD now) will be in india. Will that be a problem? what else we need to be aware of in this case?
3. in worst possible case scenario, if I dont get my GC by 01/2013, I need to renew my EAD.Whats the earliest date I can apply for EAD renewal?

sorry to post in this forum. I will make sure to have this question moved couple of days later. As always thankful to the members contributing to this forum.

[Spectator]

Answers inline.

Hi, a few general questions. Mine is EB2I Texas with PD 07/31/2007. My wife started working on EAD. EAD expires 01/2013. I am still on H1. She is tavelling to India tomorrow.


1. carrying her EAD/AP card, Prior H1/H-4 status approval ( just for the sake of it) documents good enough? Anything else I am missing?
That should be fine.


2. I am hoping to get my GC this oct/nov. but at that time my wife ( using EAD now) will be in india. Will that be a problem? what else we need to be aware of in this case?
As long as her AP remains valid, she does not have a problem, but she would need to return before it expires.


3. in worst possible case scenario, if I dont get my GC by 01/2013, I need to renew my EAD.Whats the earliest date I can apply for EAD renewal?
The earliest you can apply is 120 days from expiry.

[SmileBaba]

Admins/Mods: I have posted a thread on my wife's 485 RFE 2 days ago but is still not visible on forum. Kindly see if you can make it available on forum.

[vizcard]

Admins/Mods: I have posted a thread on my wife's 485 RFE 2 days ago but is still not visible on forum. Kindly see if you can make it available on forum.

In what forum did you create the thread? Calculations or Live Discussion. If you don't mind, just ask your question here.

[qesehmk]

smilebaba done.moved to 485 folder.

The forum level threads are moderated. Please create new threads inside the subforum level folders e.g. 485 folder.


Admins/Mods: I have posted a thread on my wife's 485 RFE 2 days ago but is still not visible on forum. Kindly see if you can make it available on forum.

[openaccount]

Finally 2011 DOS report updated:

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY11AnnualReport-Table%20V.pdf
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY11AnnualReport-Table%20VI.pdf

EB2-->66,804
EB2I-->23,997
EB2C-->8,257
EB2IC-->32,254
Eb2ROW-->34550
EB1------->25229
EB3---->37425

[openaccount]

Another surprising(good) thing EB3I got 3954 not sure if this has some porting numbers which were added in Eb3 instead of Eb2

[Spectator]

FY2011 Visa Approvals

FY2011-EB Visa Approvals

EB2 Approvals

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 3,940 --- 8,257 --- 2,542 ------ 78 -- 2,408 --- 17,225
INDIA ----- 4,563 -- 23,997 --- 4,002 ----- 444 ----- 37 --- 33,043
MEXICO ---- 1,206 --- 1,147 --- 6,228 ----- 713 ----- 53 ---- 9,347
PHIL. ------- 171 --- 3,242 --- 3,909 ----- 304 ------ 2 ---- 7,628
ROW ------ 15,349 -- 30,161 -- 20,744 --- 4,842 ---- 963 --- 72,059

TOTAL ---- 25,229 -- 66,804 -- 37,425 --- 6,381 -- 3,463 -- 139,302

THEORETICAL SPILLOVER

EB1 -------- 14,811
EB2-M ------- 1,656
EB2-P -------- (439)
EB2-ROW ---- (1,333)
EB4 --------- 3,559
EB5 --------- 6,477

TOTAL ------ 24,731

SPILLOVER USED

Spillover -- 26,648
EB2-IC ------ 5,606

SOFAD ------ 32,254

SPILLOVER
WASTAGE ---- (1,917)

A negative number indicates that more spillover was used than was available from EB1, EB2, EB4 & EB5 i.e. visas were used from EB3!

SPILLOVER ALLOCATION

--------------- No. ---- % --
CHINA ------- 5,454 -- 20.47%
INDIA ------ 21,194 -- 79.53%

TOTAL ------ 26,648 - 100.00%


EB2-WW used 34,550 visas, which is 116 more than the initial allocation of 34,434.



EB3 Approvals

EB3-China received 39 more visas than their allocation of 2,503 visas (1.56%).
EB3-India received 1,199 more visas than their allocation of 2,803 visas (42.78%).
EB3-Mexico received 3,425 more visas than their allocation of 2,803 visas (122.19%).
EB3-Philippines received 1,106 more visas than their allocation of 2,803 visas (39.46%).
EB3-ROW received 8,384 less visas than their allocation of 29,128 visas (28.78%).
Adjusted for M&P usage, EB3-ROW received 3,853 less visas that expected (15.66%).

EB3 received 2,615 less visas than the allocation of 40,040 (6.53%).


EB1
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2010
China --------- 3,940 -- 15.62% ---- 269 -- 6.83% ----- 4.08%
India --------- 4,563 -- 18.09% ----- 69 -- 1.51% ----- 1.56%
Mexico -------- 1,206 --- 4.78% ----- 46 -- 3.81% ----- 2.40%
Philippines ----- 171 --- 0.68% ----- 15 -- 8.77% ----- 7.37%
ROW ---------- 15,349 -- 60.84% -- 1,213 -- 7.90% ----- 6.00%

Total -------- 25,229 - 100.00% -- 1,612 -- 6.39% ----- 4.80%


EB2
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2010
China --------- 8,257 -- 12.36% ----- 66 -- 0.80% ----- 1.08%
India -------- 23,997 -- 35.92% ---- 133 -- 0.55% ----- 0.51%
Mexico -------- 1,147 --- 1.72% ----- 18 -- 1.57% ----- 2.69%
Philippines --- 3,242 --- 4.85% ---- 256 -- 7.90% ----- 6.34%
ROW ---------- 30,161 -- 45.15% -- 1,213 -- 4.02% ----- 4.78%

Total -------- 66,804 - 100.00% -- 1,686 -- 2.52% ----- 2.78%


EB3
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2010
China --------- 2,542 --- 6.79% -- 1,492 - 58.69% ---- 56.15%
India --------- 4,002 -- 10.69% ---- 263 -- 6.57% ---- 16.57%
Mexico -------- 6,228 -- 16.64% ---- 324 -- 5.20% ----- 2.18%
Philippines --- 3,909 -- 10.44% -- 1,498 - 38.32% ---- 20.79%
ROW ---------- 20,744 -- 55.43% -- 3,985 - 19.21% ---- 11.70%

Total -------- 37,425 - 100.00% -- 7,562 - 20.21% ---- 14.94%


EB4
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2010
China ------------ 78 --- 1.22% ----- 16 - 20.51% ----- 4.08%
India ----------- 444 --- 6.96% ---- 173 - 38.96% ---- 21.72%
Mexico ---------- 713 -- 11.17% ----- 22 -- 3.09% ----- 2.86%
Philippines ----- 304 --- 4.76% ----- 87 - 28.62% ---- 29.66%
ROW ----------- 4,842 -- 75.88% -- 1,062 - 21.93% ---- 15.95%

Total --------- 6,381 - 100.00% -- 1,360 - 21.31% ---- 15.86%


EB5
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2010
China --------- 2,408 -- 69.54% -- 2,233 - 92.73% ---- 75.26%
India ------------ 37 --- 1.07% ----- 12 - 32.43% ---- 24.19%
Mexico ----------- 53 --- 1.53% ------ 4 -- 7.55% ---- 28.00%
Philippines ------- 2 --- 0.06% ------ 0 -- 0.00% ----- 0.00%
ROW ------------- 963 -- 27.81% ---- 630 - 65.42% ---- 53.01%

Total --------- 3,463 - 100.00% -- 2,879 - 83.14% ---- 60.42%


EB1 - EB5
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2010
China -------- 17,225 -- 12.37% -- 4,076 - 23.66% ---- 16.83%
India -------- 33,043 -- 23.72% ---- 650 -- 1.97% ----- 2.95%
Mexico -------- 9,347 --- 6.71% ---- 414 -- 4.43% ----- 2.42%
Philippines --- 7,628 --- 5.48% -- 1,856 - 24.33% ---- 16.11%
ROW ---------- 72,059 -- 51.73% -- 8,103 - 11.24% ----- 8.88%

Total ------- 139,302 - 100.00% - 15,099 - 10.84% ----- 8.45%


EB1 - EB3
--------------- Total ---- % ------ CP ---- % CP -- CP FY2010
China -------- 14,739 -- 11.39% -- 1,827 - 12.40% ---- 14.24%
India -------- 32,562 -- 25.15% ---- 465 -- 1.43% ----- 2.39%
Mexico -------- 8,581 --- 6.63% ---- 388 -- 4.52% ----- 2.26%
Philippines --- 7,322 --- 5.66% -- 1,769 - 24.16% ---- 14.89%
ROW ---------- 66,254 -- 51.18% -- 6,411 -- 9.68% ----- 7.47%

Total ------- 129,458 - 100.00% - 10,860 -- 8.39% ----- 7.14%


FAMILY BASED
--------------- Total ---- % --
China -------- 17,450 --- 7.89%
India -------- 12,032 --- 5.44%
Mexico ------- 44,732 -- 20.24%
Philippines -- 18,142 --- 8.21%
ROW --------- 128,686 -- 58.22%

Total ------- 221,042 - 100.00%


EB & FB
--------------- Total ---- % --
China -------- 34,675 --- 9.62%
India -------- 45,075 -- 12.51%
Mexico ------- 54,079 -- 15.01%
Philippines -- 25,770 --- 7.15%
ROW --------- 200,745 -- 55.71%

Total ------- 360,344 - 100.00%

[vizcard]

So rules don't mean squat.

[pdfeb09]

" ... EB1-EB5
India -------- 33,043 -- 23.72% ...
Mexico -------- 9,347 --- 6.71%
...FB
India -------- 12,032 --- 5.44% ..
Mexico ------- 44,732 -- 20.24%
.....

..EB+FB
...
India -------- 45,075 -- 12.51%
Mexico ------- 54,079 -- 15.01%
...

"

I am just curious ... I understand that EB(I) got so many visas(23.72%) because of the spillover from various other EB categories and there are no 7% country limit on the spillover... and so India ended up cumulative (FB+EB) 12.51% in the end.

Is there a spillover in FB too ? How did Mexico end up with 20.24% of FB visas ? It definitely puts them over the 7% overall limit of FB+EB .. Just asking because I am unaware of spillover rules on the FB side...

On an unrelated note... It is great to see that NO spillover was wasted .. hope the extra 1900+ visas used this year won't make DOS overshoot on the cautious side next time.. and waste any visas..

PS: Spectator .. have I thanked you recently? Here goes .. A Big Thank You !

[Spectator]

" ... EB1-EB5
India -------- 33,043 -- 23.72% ...
Mexico -------- 9,347 --- 6.71%
...FB
India -------- 12,032 --- 5.44% ..
Mexico ------- 44,732 -- 20.24%
.....

..EB+FB
...
India -------- 45,075 -- 12.51%
Mexico ------- 54,079 -- 15.01%
...

"

I am just curious ... I understand that EB(I) got so many visas(23.72%) because of the spillover from various other EB categories and there are no 7% country limit on the spillover... and so India ended up cumulative (FB+EB) 12.51% in the end.

Is there a spillover in FB too ? How did Mexico end up with 20.24% of FB visas ? It definitely puts them over the 7% overall limit of FB+EB .. Just asking because I am unaware of spillover rules on the FB side...

On an unrelated note... It is great to see that NO spillover was wasted .. hope the extra 1900+ visas used this year won't make DOS overshoot on the cautious side next time.. and waste any visas..

PS: Spectator .. have thanked you recently? Here goes .. A Big Thank You !pdfeb09,

Yes there is a spillover concept in FB as well. It is explained in every VB.

F2A has some strange rules where some approvals are exempt from the numerical limits.

In particular, NO Mexico F2A approvals count against the 7% limit.

In the August VB for example, it says :


*NOTE: For August, F2A numbers EXEMPT from per-country limit are available to applicants from all countries with priority dates earlier than 01MAR10. F2A numbers SUBJECT to per-country limit are available to applicants chargeable to all countries EXCEPT MEXICO with priority dates beginning 01MAR10 and earlier than 15MAR10. (All F2A numbers provided for MEXICO are exempt from the per-country limit; there are no F2A numbers for MEXICO subject to per-country limit.)

Of the 44,732 FB visas that Mexico received, 34,363 were in F2A.

So for calculation purposes (at least as I understand it) Mexico received (44,732 - 34,363) + 9,347 = 19,716 visas, which is 5.39%.

Glad my efforts are appreciated. I have been waiting a long time to post the figures for FY2011. :)

Those extra numbers for EB2 came at the expense of EB3 and EB3-ROW in particular. I don't think they would share your view, since they lost numbers left, right and centre for various reasons in FY2011.

[openaccount]

Awesome Spec very detailed compilation.

Comparing Inventory and Approvals below are findings.

Oct2010 Uscis INV EB2IC-->35658
Oct2011 Uscis INV EB2IC-->13101
FY2011 Approvals EB2IC-->32254

PWMB+Porting FY2011EB2IC---->9697 (32254+13101-35658)

Ignored CP as CP approvals are very less, few hundred for EB2IC.

In total there were around 9.5k PWMB+Porting in FY2011 for EB2IC.

[kd2008]

Awesome Spec very detailed compilation.

Comparing Inventory and Approvals below are findings.

Oct2010 Uscis INV EB2IC-->35658
Oct2011 Uscis INV EB2IC-->13101
FY2011 Approvals EB2IC-->32254

PWMB+Porting FY2011EB2IC---->9697 (32254+13101-35658)

Ignored CP as CP approvals are very less, few hundred for EB2IC.

In total there were around 9.5k PWMB+Porting in FY2011 for EB2IC.

Oct2010 Uscis INV EB3IC-->60756
Oct2011 Uscis INV EB3IC-->54860
FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->6544 (USCIS + CP)

FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->4789 (USCIS only)

Porting in FY2011? (60756-54860) - 4789 = 5896 - 4789 = 1107

PWMB ---> ~9500 - 1100 = ~8400

My math may not be correct. Please check.

[kd2008]

Oct2010 Uscis INV EB3IC-->60756
Oct2011 Uscis INV EB3IC-->54860
FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->6544 (USCIS + CP)

FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->4789 (USCIS only)

Porting in FY2011? (60756-54860) - 4789 = 5896 - 4789 = 1107

PWMB ---> ~9500 - 1100 = ~8400

My math may not be correct. Please check.

I am repeating the same exercise with DoS demand data numbers.

Oct2010 DoS INV EB3IC-->66875
Oct2011 DoS INV EB3IC-->58925
FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->6544 (USCIS + CP)

FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->4789 (USCIS only)

Porting in FY2011? (66875 - 58925) - 4789 = 7950 - 4789 = 3161

PWMB ---> ~9500 - 3161 = ~6339

This makes Teddy's estimates of 3K porting accurate. Doesn't it?

Similarly for ROW:

Oct2010 DoS INV EB3ROWMP-->69450
Oct2011 DoS INV EB3RoWMP-->51400
FY2011 Approvals EB3ROWMP-->30881 (USCIS + CP)

FY2011 Approvals EB3ROWMP-->25074 (USCIS only)

Porting in FY2011? (69450 - 51400) - 25074 = 18050 - 25074 = This is less than zero. Something is not right!!!

[openaccount]

I am repeating the same exercise with DoS demand data numbers.

Oct2010 DoS INV EB3IC-->66875
Oct2011 DoS INV EB3IC-->58925
FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->6544 (USCIS + CP)

FY2011 Approvals EB3IC-->4789 (USCIS only)

Porting in FY2011? (66875 - 58925) - 4789 = 7950 - 4789 = 3161

PWMB ---> ~9500 - 3161 = ~6339

This makes Teddy's estimates of 3K porting accurate. Doesn't it?

Similarly for ROW:

Oct2010 DoS INV EB3ROWMP-->69450
Oct2011 DoS INV EB3RoWMP-->51400
FY2011 Approvals EB3ROWMP-->30881 (USCIS + CP)

FY2011 Approvals EB3ROWMP-->25074 (USCIS only)

Porting in FY2011? (69450 - 51400) - 25074 = 18050 - 25074 = This is less than zero. Something is not right!!!

Good find Kd, was about to look at DOS inv.DOS inv is much more accurate compared to USCIS one. you are right porting is 3k or >3k for 2011 but not less than 3k.

[Spectator]

kd,

I'll admit I am not a great fan of analysing the EB3 figures to derive porting. I think the EB2 figures give a much more "accurate" picture.

Far too much is going on with EB3 that distorts the result. EB2 is relatively stable in comparison.

Quite apart form widely differing CP% in EB3, the starting and ending figures are not comparable. In Jan2011 about 10k (from memory) cases were returned to TSC from Local Field Offices. We know neither the Category split or the Country split for these returns. However, we can probably say that the starting figure for the Inventory would have been higher on a like for like basis.

Admittedly, it shouldn't have much effect on the DOS based figures.

For the Cut Off Date movement at the end of FY2011, it shouldn't have generated that many PWMB, the vast majority of added cases would have been due to porting IMO.

In my analysis, based on EB2, I actually see a pretty high level of porting, with Teddy's 6k as the very bottom of the possible range. I won't bore you with the analysis, since I think any attempt must necessarily have quite a large error margin.

The fact that different people can analyse the same available data and come to completely different conclusions probably says everything about the difficulty of the task from the available data.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

kd,

I'll admit I am not a great fan of analysing the EB3 figures to derive porting. I think the EB2 figures give a much more "accurate" picture.

Far too much is going on with EB3 that distorts the result. EB2 is relatively stable in comparison.

Quite apart form widely differing CP% in EB3, the starting and ending figures are not comparable. In Jan2011 about 10k (from memory) cases were returned to TSC from Local Field Offices. We know neither the Category split or the Country split for these returns. However, we can probably say that the starting figure for the Inventory would have been higher on a like for like basis.

Admittedly, it shouldn't have much effect on the DOS based figures.

For the Cut Off Date movement at the end of FY2011, it shouldn't have generated that many PWMB, the vast majority of added cases would have been due to porting IMO.

In my analysis, based on EB2, I actually see a pretty high level of porting, with Teddy's 6k as the very bottom of the possible range. I won't bore you with the analysis, since I think any attempt must necessarily have quite a large error margin.

The fact that different people can analyse the same available data and come to completely different conclusions probably says everything about the difficulty of the task from the available data.

Thanks for the detailed analysis senior folks on this forum. So, does this all mean that EB2-I is the new EB3-I? Based on this information, could it be a fair conclusion that dates aren't likely to move 'much' past aug/sep '07 even after spring '13.

[pdfeb09]

pdfeb09,

Yes there is a spillover concept in FB as well. It is explained in every VB.

F2A has some strange rules where some approvals are exempt from the numerical limits.

In particular, NO Mexico F2A approvals count against the 7% limit.

In the August VB for example, it says :



Of the 44,732 FB visas that Mexico received, 34,363 were in F2A.

So for calculation purposes (at least as I understand it) Mexico received (44,732 - 34,363) + 9,347 = 19,716 visas, which is 5.39%.

Glad my efforts are appreciated. I have been waiting a long time to post the figures for FY2011. :)

Those extra numbers for EB2 came at the expense of EB3 and EB3-ROW in particular. I don't think they would share your view, since they lost numbers left, right and centre for various reasons in FY2011.

Spec,

Thanks for the explanation.

As for the extra numbers received by EB2, I was happy because there was no wastage (as against getting more at the expense of EB3) .. I know that EB3 is in a worst possible situation and no loss to them brings me any pleasure.. I was/am afraid that DOS will be over cautious next year because of this extra usage and also because EB2-ROW ended up having a cut-off this time where as EB2IC got a bunch of visas .. I would hate to see any visas go to waste on account of DOS being over cautious. It is unlikely owing to a huge number of pre-adjudicated cases with them now.

[veni001]

FY2011 Visa Approvals

FY2011-EB Visa Approvals

EB2 Approvals

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 3,940 --- 8,257 --- 2,542 ------ 78 -- 2,408 --- 17,225
INDIA ----- 4,563 -- 23,997 --- 4,002 ----- 444 ----- 37 --- 33,043
MEXICO ---- 1,206 --- 1,147 --- 6,228 ----- 713 ----- 53 ---- 9,347
PHIL. ------- 171 --- 3,242 --- 3,909 ----- 304 ------ 2 ---- 7,628
ROW ------ 15,349 -- 30,161 -- 20,744 --- 4,842 ---- 963 --- 72,059

TOTAL ---- 25,229 -- 66,804 -- 37,425 --- 6,381 -- 3,463 -- 139,302

THEORETICAL SPILLOVER

EB1 -------- 14,811
EB2-M ------- 1,656
EB2-P -------- (439)
EB2-ROW ---- (1,333)
EB4 --------- 3,559
EB5 --------- 6,477

TOTAL ------ 24,731

SPILLOVER USED

Spillover -- 26,648
EB2-IC ------ 5,606

SOFAD ------ 32,254

SPILLOVER
WASTAGE ---- (1,917)

A negative number indicates that more spillover was used than was available from EB1, EB2, EB4 & EB5 i.e. visas were used from EB3!

SPILLOVER ALLOCATION

--------------- No. ---- % --
CHINA ------- 5,454 -- 20.47%
INDIA ------ 21,194 -- 79.53%

TOTAL ------ 26,648 - 100.00%


EB2-WW used 34,550 visas, which is 116 more than the initial allocation of 34,434.
............................
............................
............................

[/FONT]

Spec,
As usual, Excellent compilation.

Thank you

[harapatta2012]

Does FY2011 start at Oct 2011 and ends at Sep 2012?

[Spectator]

Does FY2011 start at Oct 2011 and ends at Sep 2012?
FY2011 starts October 1, 2010 and ends September 30, 2011.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks for the explanation.

As for the extra numbers received by EB2, I was happy because there was no wastage (as against getting more at the expense of EB3) .. I know that EB3 is in a worst possible situation and no loss to them brings me any pleasure.. I was/am afraid that DOS will be over cautious next year because of this extra usage and also because EB2-ROW ended up having a cut-off this time where as EB2IC got a bunch of visas .. I would hate to see any visas go to waste on account of DOS being over cautious. It is unlikely owing to a huge number of pre-adjudicated cases with them now.pd,

I knew what you meant.

However 698 visas were wasted, since the EB total was only 139,302.

It might not be many overall, but any shortfall always disproportionately hurts EB3.

[whereismygc]

Guys a public service announcement! Please check out at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?900-WhereismyGC.com-Updates

Please post any responses in that thread. This post will be removed in 24 hours.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Spec ,

When do you see EB2- I crossing Dec 2007 .

[pdfeb09]

pd,

I knew what you meant.

However 698 visas were wasted, since the EB total was only 139,302.

It might not be many overall, but any shortfall always disproportionately hurts EB3.

Thanks Spec. I did miss the 139,302 figure. That's a shame !

[uxorian_hot@yahoo.com]

Gurus,

Based on the DOS annual report. If we see same kind of spillover in FY2013 (say about 25k). Any predictions where will PD stand say end of FY2013 and begining of FY2014.

[Spectator]

Gurus,

Based on the DOS annual report. If we see same kind of spillover in FY2013 (say about 25k). Any predictions where will PD stand say end of FY2013 and begining of FY2014.uxorian,

Welcome to the forum.

I think you will be very disappointed if you think that there will be 25k spillover for EB2-IC in FY2013.

FY2011 was unusual due to the very low number of EB1 approvals (and EB4 as well). I don't think we will see that again. EB5 approvals continue on an upward trend.

In addition, EB2-WW will have a substantial backlog going into FY2013 and may well actually use some of the available spillover in FY2013.

EB2-India needs 6.1k visas just to clear 2007, using USCIS Inventory figures and 4.1k using DOS Demand Data figures.

That doesn't take account of any further Porting numbers. At a mid range of 4.5k Porting, that means 8.6 - 10.6k visas would be required for EB2-I in FY2013, which represents 5.8 - 7.8k spillover to EB2-I.

I fear there won't be sufficient spillover to EB2-I in FY2013 to allow that to happen, unless EB4 yields significant numbers.

[vrs7734]

Spec,

First of all, I was in "read-only" state for last 6 months due to account not activated. Finally it was active yesterday and I could see read the facts section. Just one word...AWESOME!!!

Also I have already signed for whereismygc service. Referring your above post, and result of my PD date to be current; I think there may be some mistake in the service.

The service shows my date will be current in Feb 2014 (PD 06/04/12) and you are saying we will not cross 2007 in 2013. What do you think? Is there even 0.0001% chance?

[Spectator]

Spec,

First of all, I was in "read-only" state for last 6 months due to account not activated. Finally it was active yesterday and I could see read the facts section. Just one word...AWESOME!!!

Also I have already signed for whereismygc service. Referring your above post, and result of my PD date to be current; I think there may be some mistake in the service.

The service shows my date will be current in Feb 2014 (PD 06/04/12) and you are saying we will not cross 2007 in 2013. What do you think? Is there even 0.0001% chance?vrs7734,

Sorry to here about your problems getting activated, but welcome to the forum.

I'm glad you found the FACTS & DATA section useful and thank you for the compliment.

WhereismyGC is entirely separate from the forum and I am not involved in the forecasts. I suggest you ask Q in the thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?900-WhereismyGC.com-Updates) in the forum or via the feedback address on WhereismyGC. It may be an error. I can't agree with such an optimistic forecast, but then people do have quite varying views.

If your PD is June 4, 2012 in EB2-I, then I cannot currently see any set of circumstances where it would be Current as early as FY2014 (not even a 0.0001% chance). It is so far away, I wouldn't even hazard a guess when it might be.

Sorry I can't be more optimistic, but then I am probably the most pessimistic forecaster on the forum. Please bear that in mind.

[pch053]

As Spec mentioned, EB2-I with 2012 PD is way far off to predict at this point; not to sound pessimistic but it is extremely unlikely that it will be current in FY2014. I think there are already ~39K pending EB2-I applications. These applicants have PD up to May'10. In addition, there will be anywhere between 3K - 6K EB3->EB2 porting every year, based on different estimates. The # of EB2I cases that will be approved each year will depend on the amount of spillover visas received from other categories. Spec's estimate that EB2-I will not cross 2007 is based on his forecast of spillover visas. Even in the best case estimate of spillover visas, EB2-I is unlikely to go past 1st - 2nd quarter of 2008. Until now, the thumb rule for EB2-I for receiving their greencards has been PD + 5 years. Based on current circumstances, I think the 5 year wait might increase further. However, if HR3012 becomes a law, the situation will change all together and the current estimates don't assume any existence of HR3012 (which may or may not become a law in future).

[whereismygc]

Spec Thanks for clarifying.

vrs7734,
...

WhereismyGC is entirely separate from the forum and I am not involved in the forecasts. I suggest you ask Q in the thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?900-WhereismyGC.com-Updates) in the forum or via the feedback address on WhereismyGC. It may be an error. I can't agree with such an optimistic forecast, but then people do have quite varying views.



Spec...
Also I have already signed for whereismygc service. ... I think there may be some mistake in the service.

The service shows my date will be current in Feb 2014 (PD 06/04/12) and you are saying we will not cross 2007 in 2013.

vrs - I have fixed the tool. Generally speaking the problem is that the tool works on FIFO manner. And that works quite well generally. However in 2012 DOS/USCIS approved large number of 2008 cases. Other than that I also had a long pending task of fixing the data. Which most of it I did today. So please check back and let me know if you have further questions on the whereismygc thread.

[punjabi]

As Spec mentioned, EB2-I with 2012 PD is way far off to predict at this point; not to sound pessimistic but it is extremely unlikely that it will be current in FY2014. I think there are already ~39K pending EB2-I applications. These applicants have PD up to May'10. In addition, there will be anywhere between 3K - 6K EB3->EB2 porting every year, based on different estimates. The # of EB2I cases that will be approved each year will depend on the amount of spillover visas received from other categories. Spec's estimate that EB2-I will not cross 2007 is based on his forecast of spillover visas. Even in the best case estimate of spillover visas, EB2-I is unlikely to go past 1st - 2nd quarter of 2008. Until now, the thumb rule for EB2-I for receiving their greencards has been PD + 5 years. Based on current circumstances, I think the 5 year wait might increase further. However, if HR3012 becomes a law, the situation will change all together and the current estimates don't assume any existence of HR3012 (which may or may not become a law in future).
So what are your thoughts for pd of nov 2008 .Would appreciate a reply

[vizcard]

So what are your thoughts for pd of nov 2008 .Would appreciate a reply

FY2014....late...most likely.

[IsItWorthTheTrouble]

FY2014....late...most likely.


Any thoughts / predictions for a PD of (late) July 2008?

[openaccount]

Any thoughts / predictions for a PD of (late) July 2008?

Worst Scenario--FY2016
Likely Scenario--FY2015
Optimistic Scenario--FY2014

I think dates will be staying at Pre-Dec2007 for at least couple of years unless there is considerable Spill Over form EB5/EB1.

[suninphx]

Worst Scenario--FY2016
Likely Scenario--FY2015
Optimistic Scenario--FY2014

I think dates will be staying at Pre-Dec2007 for at least couple of years unless there is considerable Spill Over form EB5/EB1.

Is this based on any calculations other than Spec's? It just amazes me when people still believe that concerned departments will behave in logical manner in future. Their past performance does not indicate that. While I am great fan of Spec's calculations (thank you Spec) it is slightly disappointing to see him in 'date predition' game, specially when he has seen so much over the years. Anyway that's my personal opinion and no way meant to show any disrespect for Spec. It's just that I liked his posts more when it just gave the calculations and left prediction to individuals (based on their own assumptions).

[kkruna]

I get a feeling that pessimism has taken garb of realism on this thread.

[Spectator]

Is this based on any calculations other than Spec's? It just amazes me when people still believe that concerned departments will behave in logical manner in future. Their past performance does not indicate that. While I am great fan of Spec's calculations (thank you Spec) it is slightly disappointing to see him in 'date predition' game, specially when he has seen so much over the years. Anyway that's my personal opinion and no way meant to show any disrespect for Spec. It's just that I liked his posts more when it just gave the calculations and left prediction to individuals (based on their own assumptions).suninphx,

Not sure why you think I have entered "date prediction mode".

As you say, I prefer to lay the information out there for everybody and let people draw their own conclusion.

That said, I don't feel I can never post what I think that information says to myself personally. I've stuck to my guns regarding EB1, EB5 numbers and overuse of EB2 even though it hasn't been a popular or universal view at times.

As FY2012 draws to a close, especially with almost no activity in EB2, I think it is natural that thoughts should turn to what is gong to happen in FY2013 and future years.

If nobody lays out their thoughts, how can we have a discussion?

[Spectator]

I get a feeling that pessimism has taken garb of realism on this thread.kkruna,

Ultimately, it is not about pessimism or optimism - it is about being realistic. If people can't take what I say, then they probably shouldn't read my posts. I back up my thoughts with the reasons.

No offence, but if you disagree, why don't you lay out your thoughts and back them up with reasons for them.

That is far more interesting and constructive than just having a moan.

[qesehmk]

kkruna, USCIS and DOS are extremely unpredictable. And sometimes I think they are that way by design. Every year since 2007 something or else is unique about each one of those years. This year they approved 2008 cases well ahead of 2007. They completely disregarded quota and allocated visas to EB2IC over ROW. So to be perfectly honest - that has thrown people into a tizzy.

So what everybody produces on this thread is generally directionally correct but nobody can say with certainty that that's how it's going to happen. The intention is to provide data to support your theory/hypotheses and keep room for some doubt. I agree with Spec - if you think this is turning pessimistic then try putting your gut feel onto paper using numbers and see where that takes us. Perhaps you can find something interesting that will be useful to all!! Good luck!


I get a feeling that pessimism has taken garb of realism on this thread.

[chengisk]

kkruna,

Ultimately, it is not about pessimism or optimism - it is about being realistic. If people can't take what I say, then they probably shouldn't read my posts. I back up my thoughts with the reasons.

No offence, but if you disagree, why don't you lay out your thoughts and back them up with reasons for them.

That is far more interesting and constructive than just having a moan.

Spec, I think @kkruna is referring to @suninphx's post. @suninphx in turn is referring to the post by @openaccount and I am assuming that he is frustrated, as per him, about the nonpredictable nature of the departments concerned. There are only a one-hand finger countable number of savants in this forum who have a grasp of the numbers involved and I would always start with you on the very top. Believe me that every single post of yours is eagerly awaited for and studied carefully. Yours and a few others indeed form the backbone of this forum. We (I think I can say for suninphx too) all eagerly look forward to more of your assessments and hope you keep a part of your grey cells allocated to just do this. Much appreciated. Have a nice day.

[kkruna]

I was responding to this post. I like the data based collaborative approach that I get to see on this forum unlike anywhere else. But you would agree that, historically, we have seen wait times for EB2I play out between 4 to 5+ years. Now, we predict here 6 to 8 years. There are obviously pitfalls in depending too much on historical trends but we should be careful in negating it since the trend includes averaging of various underlying variables and, on other hand, we tend to magnify the selection of variables that we study.

Unfortunately, I am unable to devote time at present to delve into details due to work pressures and working on daughter's college admission. I love data and will contribute more meaningfully to discussions here in coming months.


Worst Scenario--FY2016
Likely Scenario--FY2015
Optimistic Scenario--FY2014

I think dates will be staying at Pre-Dec2007 for at least couple of years unless there is considerable Spill Over form EB5/EB1.

[kkruna]

You are spot on ...


Spec, I think @kkruna is referring to @suninphx's post. @suninphx in turn is referring to the post by @openaccount and I am assuming that he is frustrated, as per him, about the nonpredictable nature of the departments concerned. There are only a one-hand finger countable number of savants in this forum who have a grasp of the numbers involved and I would always start with you on the very top. Believe me that every single post of yours is eagerly awaited for and studied carefully. Yours and a few others indeed form the backbone of this forum. We (I think I can say for suninphx too) all eagerly look forward to more of your assessments and hope you keep a part of your grey cells allocated to just do this. Much appreciated. Have a nice day.

[Spectator]

I was responding to this post. I like the data based collaborative approach that I get to see on this forum unlike anywhere else. But you would agree that, historically, we have seen wait times for EB2I play out between 4 to 5+ years. Now, we predict here 6 to 8 years. There are obviously pitfalls in depending too much on historical trends but we should be careful in negating it since the trend includes averaging of various underlying variables and, on other hand, we tend to magnify the selection of variables that we study.

Unfortunately, I am unable to devote time at present to delve into details due to work pressures and working on daughter's college admission. I love data and will contribute more meaningfully to discussions here in coming months.kkruna,

I didn't necessarily think your comment was aimed at me, but my overall comment remains. I do think openaccount might (or should) have backed up those predictions with an explanation. That is the ethos of the forum in my mind.

The 4-5 year wait can only be sustained if EB2-I receives large numbers of spillover visas each year, since the demand for an EB2-I PD year is about 15k and likely to increase beyond where Cut Off Dates have already reached.

If any FY (or years) fall below that level of Indian SOFAD (plus porting for the year), then the wait time will increase.

What happened this year will probably have consequences next year because of the backlog in EB2-WW that will build up and a change in how DOS releases any spillover.

There are some negative indicators, even taking historical performance into account.

I think I have said enough.

Good luck with the College admission. I can understand how stressful and time consuming it must be.

I look forward to your contributions when you have more time.

[openaccount]

Is this based on any calculations other than Spec's? It just amazes me when people still believe that concerned departments will behave in logical manner in future. Their past performance does not indicate that. While I am great fan of Spec's calculations (thank you Spec) it is slightly disappointing to see him in 'date predition' game, specially when he has seen so much over the years. Anyway that's my personal opinion and no way meant to show any disrespect for Spec. It's just that I liked his posts more when it just gave the calculations and left prediction to individuals (based on their own assumptions).

Sunphix,

I can understand your frustration.
My prediction is not solely based on Spec's estimate nor being pessimistic or anything. 2012 was unusual because of lack of inventory. Now there good number of preajudicated cases in front of CO, we have seen how CO moved dates in past couple of years when there is Inventory. And more over we have seen increase in EB5/EB1 usage this year. Below is spill over i am expecting in 2013, we can debate over this whether there will be an increase or decrease in Spill over, right now the way things are shaping up I do not see a reason to believe that there will be substantial increase in Spill Over.

2013 SO
EB5---0-1k(According CO's estimate in July)
EB1--3-4k(Depends on If EB1 is going to get Cutoff Date in Sept VB or not)
EB2ROW--?(this is big question mark if they are going to consume any SO from EB5/EB1 again this depends on backlog that is accumulated this year we will know exact number in Oct demand data)


P.S: As i mentioned in my earlier posts having PD of May2008,I am also not happy with this but this is what numbers are pointing to at present.

[bvsamrat]

Once again my favorite topic. My only suggestion is that with every logical prediction, just indicate the possible exceptions, which makes every one understand/be happy and make thier judgments.

Another weird logic

2007 is a special case

2011 is special case

2015 will also be special case

Hence by 2015 December all cases up 2013 may get current.

Now everybody can feel happy. Start guessing when you can your PD current again?


Sunphix,

I can understand your frustration.
My prediction is not solely based on Spec's estimate nor being pessimistic or anything. 2012 was unusual because of lack of inventory. Now there good number of preajudicated cases in front of CO, we have seen how CO moved dates in past couple of years when there is Inventory. And more over we have seen increase in EB5/EB1 usage this year. Below is spill over i am expecting in 2013, we can debate over this whether there will be an increase or decrease in Spill over, right now the way things are shaping up I do not see a reason to believe that there will be substantial increase in Spill Over.

2013 SO
EB5---0-1k(According CO's estimate in July)
EB1--3-4k(Depends on If EB1 is going to get Cutoff Date in Sept VB or not)
EB2ROW--?(this is big question mark if they are going to consume any SO from EB5/EB1 again this depends on backlog that is accumulated this year we will know exact number in Oct demand data)


P.S: As i mentioned in my earlier posts having PD of May2008,I am also not happy with this but this is what numbers are pointing to at present.

[Spectator]

we will know exact number in Oct demand dataopenaccount,

I think the October Demand Data will show the situation as of about 6th/7th September when it is published.

The figure will need to adjusted upwards to the end of the FY (about 3 weeks worth).

By the time the November Demand Data comes out in early October, some of the cases will have already been approved in FY2013 and it will show a lower number than the true year ending figure.

My thoughts anyway.

[openaccount]

Spec-
yes, I was referring to demand data that will be released in October--Nov Demand Data. Approximately(+ 1 week approvals) that will be the number that is carried over from 2012.

[openaccount]

For FY2012 following is my estimation for visa consumption across EB1/4/5/2. This is split across months as approvals varied across months. This is based on this article(http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/articles/a2012-03-27.html) which i found in this forum back in March. If EB1 uses anything < 35k and if it gets COD in Sept then those numbers are consumed by EB2 most probably ROW, we will find out about this in next VB, i will be more than happy if EB1 stays 'C' for Sept VB.

EB4/EB5 numbers are based on CO comments in July regarding EB5 numbers and some comments from above article regarding EB4.

Category---Oct2011 to Dec2011--Jan2012 to Mar2012--Apr2012 to Sept2012---Total
EB2IC-------10k-------------------------16k-------------------------0k-----------------26k(you may not agree with this number but i think EB2IC consumed >25k in Fy2012)
EB2ROW----6k---------------------------7k--------------------------9k-----------------22k(This is based on retrogression in Q4 and EB2 consumption of around 38-40k in Q1+Q2)
EB1----------6k--------------------------10k------------------------20k-----------------36k(In above article CO mentioned no Spill down from EB1, which is more or less EB1 will consume >=35k)
EB5/EB4-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------16k(EB5--6k+EB4--10k)

[nikjoshi]

Hi Gurus and Experts - my PD is July 31, 2011. When can I expect to get current based on the current trends?

[qesehmk]

openaccount - that sounds reasonable. imho eb2ic could go as high as 30K.
For FY2012 following is my estimation for visa consumption across EB1/4/5/2. This is split across months as approvals varied across months. This is based on this article(http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/articles/a2012-03-27.html) which i found in this forum back in March. If EB1 uses anything < 35k and if it gets COD in Sept then those numbers are consumed by EB2 most probably ROW, we will find out about this in next VB, i will be more than happy if EB1 stays 'C' for Sept VB.

EB4/EB5 numbers are based on CO comments in July regarding EB5 numbers and some comments from above article regarding EB4.

Category---Oct2011 to Dec2011--Jan2012 to Mar2012--Apr2012 to Sept2012---Total
EB2IC-------10k-------------------------16k-------------------------0k-----------------26k(you may not agree with this number but i think EB2IC consumed >25k in Fy2012)
EB2ROW----6k---------------------------7k--------------------------9k-----------------22k(This is based on retrogression in Q4 and EB2 consumption of around 38-40k in Q1+Q2)
EB1----------6k--------------------------10k------------------------20k-----------------36k(In above article CO mentioned no Spill down from EB1, which is more or less EB1 will consume >=35k)
EB5/EB4-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------16k(EB5--6k+EB4--10k)


Hi Gurus and Experts - my PD is July 31, 2011. When can I expect to get current based on the current trends?
nik - 5 yrs from pd is rule of thumb. with hr3012 it could be 2.5 yrs.

[yank]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[CleanSock]

28,250.. I don't remember the number from previous months demand data for EB2I, but has it gone down or is it still the same?

[openaccount]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

thank you.

EB2 ROW---2,775X3=8325(retrogressed for 3 months taking 2775 as base per month for 3 months it would be 8325)

So EB2ROW will be using at least +8k in FY2013.

[Spectator]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdfyank,

Thanks for the heads up.


28,250.. I don't remember the number from previous months demand data for EB2I, but has it gone down or is it still the same?CleanSock,

It was 22,225 last month for EB2-I.

January 01, 2008 ---- + 850
January 01, 2009 -- + 1,650
January 01, 2010 -- + 2,450
January 01, 2012 -- + 1,750


What I noticed was that the EB2-WW number has increased by 2,000.

[openaccount]

openaccount - that sounds reasonable. imho eb2ic could go as high as 30K.

agree i am expecting it to be around 28k

[openaccount]

thank you.

EB2 ROW---2,775X3=8325(retrogressed for 3 months taking 2775 as base per month for 3 months it would be 8325)

So EB2ROW will be using at least +8k in FY2013.

other approach taking weekly basis below is calculation for Jul1-Sept31(2012)---13 weeks

2775----5 weeks(Jul1-Aug5)
555------1 week
7215----13 weeks(Jul1-Sept31)

So 7215 is minimum number of approvals that could have happened in Q4 without retrogression for EB2ROW. As USCIS is approving some 485 cases within 2-3 months, we can add an extra 1k to the number, so totally EB2ROW needs +8k approvals as starting point in FY2013

[CleanSock]

Thanks Spec!

It may have been answered before but sorry for asking again. Why did the number increase when EB2I has been Unavailable since many months?No new applications, no porting. Is USCIS showing pre adjudicated numbers?



yank,

Thanks for the heads up.

CleanSock,

It was 22,225 last month for EB2-I.

January 01, 2008 ---- + 850
January 01, 2009 -- + 1,650
January 01, 2010 -- + 2,450
January 01, 2012 -- + 1,750


What I noticed was that the EB2-WW number has increased by 2,000.

[GhostWriter]

Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. Bieber, this is update to your last month's similar calculation (with addition of 2010). Post 28404 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=28404#post28404)

EB2-I
2007 ~ 100% (DD-4900, Inv - 4904)
2008 - 85% (DD-12800, Inv-15136)
2009 - 64% (DD-8575, Inv-13429)
2010 - 40% (DD-1975, Inv-4912)

EB2-C
2007 - 77% (DD-800, Inv-1046)
2008 - 86% (DD-2850, Inv-3311)
2009 - 68% (DD-1975, Inv-2913)
2010 - 41% (DD-400, Inv-975)

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec!

It may have been answered before but sorry for asking again. Why did the number increase when EB2I has been Unavailable since many months?No new applications, no porting. Is USCIS showing pre adjudicated numbers?CleanSock,

The DOS Demand Data only shows cases where a visa number has been requested from either USCIS or a Consulate.

The continuing increase just reflects USCIS working their way through the backlog and processing them to preadudication. I expect it to continue in the short term.

[trackright]

Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. Bieber, this is update to your last month's similar calculation (with addition of 2010). Post 28404 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=28404#post28404)

EB2-I
2007 ~ 100% (DD-4900, Inv - 4904)
2008 - 85% (DD-12800, Inv-15136)
2009 - 64% (DD-8575, Inv-13429)
2010 - 40% (DD-1975, Inv-4912)

EB2-C
2007 - 77% (DD-800, Inv-1046)
2008 - 86% (DD-2850, Inv-3311)
2009 - 68% (DD-1975, Inv-2913)
2010 - 41% (DD-400, Inv-975)

Does the Inventory include approved cases. Like for eaxmple EB2I-2008 Inv=15136. Does it mean all 15136 are pending or it includes approved cases too.

[justvisiting]

So I have a question regardign the 27% per quarter limit. (Spec might be the best one to answer) If DOS applies the limit, then they would likely have to keep a cutoff date for EB2-WW, right?
The limit for this category in a quarter would be 40,040*86%*27%= 9,297. If the estimate of a backlog of 8K is correct, and DOS releases all those visa numbers in October, then by December they won't have any numbers left for Q1.

[GhostWriter]

If the inventory report is accurate then it will include only pending cases. Once the case is approved (visa number is obtained) the case will not be in inventory.


Does the Inventory include approved cases. Like for eaxmple EB2I-2008 Inv=15136. Does it mean all 15136 are pending or it includes approved cases too.

[Spectator]

So I have a question regardign the 27% per quarter limit. (Spec might be the best one to answer) If DOS applies the limit, then they would likely have to keep a cutoff date for EB2-WW, right?
The limit for this category in a quarter would be 40,040*86%*27%= 9,297. If the estimate of a backlog of 8K is correct, and DOS releases all those visa numbers in October, then by December they won't have any numbers left for Q1.In theory, as you point out, it could present a problem.

In practice, I think it is politically too important not to bring EB2-WW back to Current for it to actually happen. One way or other the situation will be massaged to obtain the desired result IMO.

The first full Demand Data month movement for EB2-WW was only 2k, so the backlog may be lower than 8k.

The 27% limit is an overall limit for EB, so extra visas can be pulled in from other places, at least temporarily. The vast majority of EB5 approvals are from China. They will hit the quarterly 7% limit and spare visas can be reallocated. CO can always use the low EB1 demand stunt to find some more. The fly in that ointment is that CO probably needs to release the full 2.8k allocation to EB2-I in October to have a Cut Off date in August 2007.

I'm not convinced all the backlogged cases will be approved in the first month anyway for purely logistical reasons.

Finally, CO has shown scant regard for the 27% limit in the past - why should FY2013 be any different?

[Spectator]

For FY2012 following is my estimation for visa consumption across EB1/4/5/2. This is split across months as approvals varied across months. This is based on this article(http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/articles/a2012-03-27.html) which i found in this forum back in March. If EB1 uses anything < 35k and if it gets COD in Sept then those numbers are consumed by EB2 most probably ROW, we will find out about this in next VB, i will be more than happy if EB1 stays 'C' for Sept VB.

EB4/EB5 numbers are based on CO comments in July regarding EB5 numbers and some comments from above article regarding EB4.

Category---Oct2011 to Dec2011--Jan2012 to Mar2012--Apr2012 to Sept2012---Total
EB2IC-------10k-------------------------16k-------------------------0k-----------------26k(you may not agree with this number but i think EB2IC consumed >25k in Fy2012)
EB2ROW----6k---------------------------7k--------------------------9k-----------------22k(This is based on retrogression in Q4 and EB2 consumption of around 38-40k in Q1+Q2)
EB1----------6k--------------------------10k------------------------20k-----------------36k(In above article CO mentioned no Spill down from EB1, which is more or less EB1 will consume >=35k)
EB5/EB4-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------16k(EB5--6k+EB4--10k)openaccount,

I deliberately left a day before replying to see if other people would respond.

I also generally agree with your assessment.

My variation would be that I think EB2 has used 50-52k, about evenly split between EB2-IC and EB2-WW.

To balance that, my figure for EB1 would be slightly lower than yours.

[gc2008]

September demand data is out:

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[justvisiting]

In theory, as you point out, it could present a problem.

The 27% limit is an overall limit for EB, so extra visas can be pulled in from other places, at least temporarily. The vast majority of EB5 approvals are from China. They will hit the quarterly 7% limit and spare visas can be reallocated. CO can always use the low EB1 demand stunt to find some more. The fly in that ointment is that CO probably needs to release the full 2.8k allocation to EB2-I in October to have a Cut Off date in August 2007.

I went back and read the INA, and you are absolutely right. The language is so vague DOS has all sorts of flexibility.


Finally, CO has shown scant regard for the 27% limit in the past - why should FY2013 be any different?

Well, since DOS doesn't release quarterly data, they can get away with most anything, I suppose.

[bieber]

Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. Bieber, this is update to your last month's similar calculation (with addition of 2010). Post 28404 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=28404#post28404)

EB2-I
2007 ~ 100% (DD-4900, Inv - 4904)
2008 - 85% (DD-12800, Inv-15136)
2009 - 64% (DD-8575, Inv-13429)
2010 - 40% (DD-1975, Inv-4912)

EB2-C
2007 - 77% (DD-800, Inv-1046)
2008 - 86% (DD-2850, Inv-3311)
2009 - 68% (DD-1975, Inv-2913)
2010 - 41% (DD-400, Inv-975)

Thanks GhostWriter, I was going to search that post

[bieber]

Just as an extention to GhostWriter post

Cases added to Demand data in the last month and (Total pending cases = Inventory - current demand)

EB2I
2007 PD- 850 (4)
2008 PD- 1,650 (2,336)
2009 PD- 2,450 (4,854)

EB2C
2007 PD- 125 (246)
2008 PD- 250 (461)
2009 PD- 500 (938)

[openaccount]

openaccount,

I deliberately left a day before replying to see if other people would respond.

I also generally agree with your assessment.

My variation would be that I think EB2 has used 50-52k, about evenly split between EB2-IC and EB2-WW.

To balance that, my figure for EB1 would be slightly lower than yours.

Spec,

How many EB2 approvals do you think happened in Q1+Q2.

My estimation of EB2 48k is based on around 38-40k approvals in Q1+Q2 and this (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all_form_types_performance_data_qtr.pdf ), if you see this for Q1+Q2 there were around 75k EB approvals(this does not include CP), In this 75k at least 58-60k could be for EB2/EB1/EB4/EB5. So in Q3+Q4 there were around 40k left to distribute across EB2ROW/EB1/EB4/EB5, As EB2ROW stayed 'C' for Q3, i believe there were around 9k approvals(around 3k per month) EB4/EB5 approvals around 8k which brings EB2ROW/EB4/EB5 approvals around 17k in Q3+Q4. So EB1 approvals in Q3+Q4 might be around 40-17=23K., this could be on higher end but i think EB1 approvals in Q3+Q4 are no less than 20k for this reason i was expecting EB1 approvals >35k.

I believe CO has used around 60k(EB1/2/4/5) in Q1+Q2 itself because of following reasons
--Approvals in Jan/Feb/March 2012
--the way retrogression happened latter.
--CO announcement in March no EB1 spill down

[veni001]

thank you.

EB2 ROW---2,775X3=8325(retrogressed for 3 months taking 2775 as base per month for 3 months it would be 8325)

So EB2ROW will be using at least +8k in FY2013.


other approach taking weekly basis below is calculation for Jul1-Sept31(2012)---13 weeks

2775----5 weeks(Jul1-Aug5)
555------1 week
7215----13 weeks(Jul1-Sept31)

So 7215 is minimum number of approvals that could have happened in Q4 without retrogression for EB2ROW. As USCIS is approving some 485 cases within 2-3 months, we can add an extra 1k to the number, so totally EB2ROW needs +8k approvals as starting point in FY2013

In addition, those EB2-ROW applications that could have been filed in Q4 of 2012 will hit Q1 of 2013 (assuming dates will become current for EB2-ROW)

[Spectator]

Spec,

How many EB2 approvals do you think happened in Q1+Q2. Around 40k.

[isantem]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

September Demand data is out!

[openaccount]

In addition, those EB2-ROW application that could have been filed in Q4 of 2013 will hit Q1 of 2014 (assuming dates will become current for EB2-ROW)

veni, i guess you were referring to Q4-2012 & Q1-2013

[veni001]

veni, i guess you were referring to Q4-2012 & Q1-2013

That's right, i corrected it in my post.

[qesehmk]

The numbers in Sep demand data are surprising.
It shows only 12K demand for 2008 for EB2 (mostly EB2IC really). I would have thought that would now represent mostly all of 2008 numbers. So either A) USCIS hasnt yet fully processed 2008 OR B) 2008 demand is truly low. I am not sure what exactly is true. Looking at the 2008 PERM data, probably A) is true.

[Spectator]

The numbers in Sep demand data are surprising.
It shows only 12K demand for 2008 for EB2 (mostly EB2IC really). I would have thought that would now represent mostly all of 2008 numbers. So either A) USCIS hasnt yet fully processed 2008 OR B) 2008 demand is truly low. I am not sure what exactly is true. Looking at the 2008 PERM data, probably A) is true.Q,

I am not sure how you are arriving at that figure of 12k for 2008.

I see 15,675 cases (21,400 - 5,725) made up of China - 2,850 India - 12,800 & Worldwide - 25

I do agree that USCIS probably still hasn't finished processing all the cases yet.

GhostWriter's earlier post shows that compared to the Inventory figures for May 2012, about 85% of 2008 cases have now appeared in the Demand Data and correspondingly less for 2009 and 2010.


Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. Bieber, this is update to your last month's similar calculation (with addition of 2010). Post 28404 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=28404#post28404)

EB2-I
2007 ~ 100% (DD-4900, Inv - 4904)
2008 - 85% (DD-12800, Inv-15136)
2009 - 64% (DD-8575, Inv-13429)
2010 - 40% (DD-1975, Inv-4912)

EB2-C
2007 - 77% (DD-800, Inv-1046)
2008 - 86% (DD-2850, Inv-3311)
2009 - 68% (DD-1975, Inv-2913)
2010 - 41% (DD-400, Inv-975)

[qesehmk]

I missed China Spec. Thanks for pointing out. But that doesn't make a huge dent really.

Including China it shows 16K right? Given that 1/3rd of 2008 are already approved, that makes 2008 true demand at 24K. Then you apply the 85% factor and you get 28K which is quite less compared to average 2.5-3K per month demand for EB2IC.

Makes sense?


Q,

I am not sure how you are arriving at that figure of 12k for 2008.

I see 15,675 cases (21,400 - 5,725) made up of China - 2,850 India - 12,800 & Worldwide - 25

I do agree that USCIS probably still hasn't finished processing all the cases yet.

GhostWriter's earlier post shows that compared to the Inventory figures for May 2012, about 85% of 2008 cases have now appeared in the Demand Data and correspondingly less for 2009 and 2010.

[GhostWriter]

The total PERMs for EB-IC for 2008 were about 28K, with an overall transformation factor of 1 that implies 28K I-485s. The EB2-IC inventory has about 18K. If your assumption about one third approvals is correct then total I485s filed for EB2-IC for 2008 were 27K, very close to the 28K number.


I missed China Spec. Thanks for pointing out. But that doesn't make a huge dent really.

Including China it shows 16K right? Given that 1/3rd of 2008 are already approved, that makes 2008 true demand at 24K. Then you apply the 85% factor and you get 28K which is quite less compared to average 2.5-3K per month demand for EB2IC.

Makes sense?

[qesehmk]

28k perms => 17k assuming 60% eb2
@2.1 family factor that is 35.7k eb2ic. So 28k is really lower bound whereas 36k would be realistic #
And that's why I think (don't really claim) uscis may have processed less than 85%

The total PERMs for EB2-IC for 2008 were about 28K, with an overall transformation factor of 1 that implies 28K I-485s. The EB2-IC inventory has about 18K. If your assumption about one third approvals is correct then total I485s filed for EB2-IC for 2008 were 27K, very close to the 28K number.

[billu77]

any predictions for FY 2013 by the experts based on the latest DD?

[vizcard]

any predictions for FY 2013 by the experts based on the latest DD?

You will have your GC.. assuming your application is all good.

[GhostWriter]

EB-IC PERMs - 28K (i had mentioned this as EB2-IC PERM by mistake in the earlier post, will correct that)

Using Spec's assumptions from here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?656-Overall-Ratio-Transformation-Factor-Demand-Destruction-An-Explanation-of-Terms)

% of EB2 cases - 65%
I-140 approval rate - 80%
Dependent ratio - 2.05
Transformation ratio - .65 * .8 * 2.05 ~ 1.066
EB2-IC I485s expected - 28K * 1.066 ~ 30K

We can also add 1K of porting for 2008 PDs (assuming total porting of 4K, roughly 1K can be attributed to 2008 PD). I don't know if they are counted in EB2 inventory or not. But if they are then we should have seen I-485 filings of 30K + 1K = 31K. Assuming 9K 2008 approvals for EB2-IC, we should expect 22K in inventory vs. a current figure of 18K. 4K discrepancy can be due to many reasons
1. Approvals were more than 9k
2. New PWMBs (so they will file later)
3. DD of up to 13% (~ 4k/30k)
4. People have filed but inventory does not reflect some of the cases (this is i assume what you are implying). This is possible but seems less likely, inventory was released on May 3 and cut-off dates for 2008 were current from Jan-Apr 2012. There could be some cases received at the end of April that might not have been counted but would more likely be 2010 or 2009 PDs. But with USCIS nothing can be ruled out !!

In any case base (realistic) case expectation of 36K for 2008 EB2-IC seems too high, i don't think that was the base case assumption most of the people were making. As far as i remember it used to be 28K (using a ratio of 1) and some even assumed less than that accounting for DD of 10% or more.




28k perms => 17k assuming 60% eb2
@2.1 family factor that is 35.7k eb2ic. So 28k is really lower bound whereas 36k would be realistic #
And that's why I think (don't really claim) uscis may have processed less than 85%

[makmohan]

You will have your GC.. assuming your application is all good.

Viz, any guess for 30-Apr-2008 EB2I PD? Will it be before Dec 2012 or in summer 2013?

- makmohan

[vizcard]

Viz, any guess for 30-Apr-2008 EB2I PD? Will it be before Dec 2012 or in summer 2013?

- makmohan

I'll defer to Spec and others who run the numbers but my guess is best case scenario is Summer 2013. FY14 is more realistic.

[geevikram]

Viz, any guess for 30-Apr-2008 EB2I PD? Will it be before Dec 2012 or in summer 2013?

- makmohan

Sit tight. There are quite some unknowns such as the spillover that we are going to receive from EB4 and EB5. Where we start off next year (Oct 2013) also matters a lot.

Good luck!!

[Spectator]

One interesting thing I noticed was that DOS have not yet published the official EB and FB limits for FY2012.

It does seem to be getting later and later, so last year it was published in the August 2011 VB. This what it said:


E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Sections 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.
The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2011 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2011 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 140,000

Under INA Section 202(a), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2011 the per-country limit is 25,620. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,320.

Until this is published, Section A of the VB says:


The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.

After it is published, it says:


The fiscal year 2011 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 140,000.

The September VB is the last chance to officially publish this information.

FB received 221,042 visas last year, so there is an outside possibility of an extra 4,958 visas for EB.

[qesehmk]

Spec thanks. I had pretty much forgotten about this nuance.

Can you please throw some light on this verbeage in plain english.



These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

[Spectator]

Spec thanks. I had pretty much forgotten about this nuance.

Can you please throw some light on this verbeage in plain english.Q,

Sure.

Both only relate to the (rather complicated) calculation of FB numbers. I won't bore everyone by quoting them, but you can find them at INA 201(c) if anyone cares to look.

Essentially, you can ignore them, since the number relating to parole is very small and the number of Immediate Relatives of US Citizens is very large.

A simple version would be 480k minus IR of USC plus any spare EB visas. That calculation almost always results in a figure lower than the minimum number for FB of 226,000.

The number of IR approvals in FY2011 (according to DHS figures) was 453,158 and in FY2010 it was 476,414 , so you can see that the default figure of 226k always comes into play.

[NeelVohra]

Trackitt EB2-I user is reporting that he/she received the NVC Notice. EB2-I PD June 2011

Link: EB2-I PD June 2011 (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/1024202925/nvc-visa-fee-bill-notice/page/last_page)

[chengisk]

Trackitt EB2-I user is reporting that he/she received the NVC Notice. EB2-I PD June 2011

Link: EB2-I PD June 2011 (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/1024202925/nvc-visa-fee-bill-notice/page/last_page)

That is interesting in that DoS is gaining confidence to do this. That being said, here are some of the past NVC receipts

Reported Receipt date-----------PD
17Jan2012--------------------------01Mar2011
01Feb2012--------------------------18Feb2011
07Feb2012--------------------------30Jun2011
17Feb2012--------------------------24Jan2011
22feb2012--------------------------01may2011
23feb2012--------------------------14jun2011
28feb2012--------------------------02feb2011
28feb2012--------------------------01mar2011
08mar2012--------------------------22jun2011
And Now,
12Jun2012--------------------------23jun2011

I am quite sure, by Jan 2013 the cutoff date cannot be in 2011. So I am befuddled.

[vizcard]

That is interesting in that DoS is gaining confidence to do this. That being said, here are some of the past NVC receipts

Reported Receipt date-----------PD
17Jan2012--------------------------01Mar2011
01Feb2012--------------------------18Feb2011
07Feb2012--------------------------30Jun2011
17Feb2012--------------------------24Jan2011
22feb2012--------------------------01may2011
23feb2012--------------------------14jun2011
28feb2012--------------------------02feb2011
28feb2012--------------------------01mar2011
08mar2012--------------------------22jun2011
And Now,
10aug2012--------------------------23jun2011

I am quite sure, by Jan 2013 the cutoff date cannot be in 2011. So I am befuddled.

All except the last one were issued when the flood gates had been opened under a different set of assumptions. I wouldn't consider those. But the last one is definitely intriguing. Keep in mind though that, once paid, the fee is valid forever.

[billu77]

just a word about Sept. visa bulletin. Normally VBs are posted by 10th of the month and most often a day after the DD. Is there anything more to the Sept. bulletin or just a procedural delay?

[qesehmk]

Billu - it should be out by Wed for sure. Perhaps even Mon or Tue.
just a word about Sept. visa bulletin. Normally VBs are posted by 10th of the month and most often a day after the DD. Is there anything more to the Sept. bulletin or just a procedural delay?

[chengisk]

The last user got receipt notice in Jun and not Aug. Anyway I would not read too much into this.

Corrected the date. You are right, I do not think there is much to this. But what gets me is that someone with 2011 PD is looking at 2016 to be current. Think DoS has a good investment banker?

[obamamerabaap]

I have a PD of October 2008 - when can I expect Green Card ?

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Not sure why you think I have entered "date prediction mode".

As you say, I prefer to lay the information out there for everybody and let people draw their own conclusion.

That said, I don't feel I can never post what I think that information says to myself personally. I've stuck to my guns regarding EB1, EB5 numbers and overuse of EB2 even though it hasn't been a popular or universal view at times.

As FY2012 draws to a close, especially with almost no activity in EB2, I think it is natural that thoughts should turn to what is gong to happen in FY2013 and future years.

If nobody lays out their thoughts, how can we have a discussion?

Well at least that's the feeling I got by reading some of your posts in previous pages. But that's not the point. Let me give you example from this forum itself. Last year Teddy was first to predict EB2 dates to be around Jan 2008 by end of FY2012. And as we all know now he was spot on if things moved logically. ( he was spot on in terms of porting numbers too). But things did not move logically and value of his prediction( numbers wise) was lost in the process. So the point is predicting numbers has the value and not the date IMO.

Even GODS can not take away your right to express thoughts :) I am mere mortal here , just making point that number predictions(and debate) is much more 'valuable' than date prediction as it is kind of waste of time ,IMO, specially when we know behavior of agencies involved and lot of unknown unknowns.

And one more time thank you very much for all number calculations and other very informative posts.

[suninphx]

Sunphix,

I can understand your frustration.
My prediction is not solely based on Spec's estimate nor being pessimistic or anything. 2012 was unusual because of lack of inventory. Now there good number of preajudicated cases in front of CO, we have seen how CO moved dates in past couple of years when there is Inventory. And more over we have seen increase in EB5/EB1 usage this year. Below is spill over i am expecting in 2013, we can debate over this whether there will be an increase or decrease in Spill over, right now the way things are shaping up I do not see a reason to believe that there will be substantial increase in Spill Over.

2013 SO
EB5---0-1k(According CO's estimate in July)
EB1--3-4k(Depends on If EB1 is going to get Cutoff Date in Sept VB or not)
EB2ROW--?(this is big question mark if they are going to consume any SO from EB5/EB1 again this depends on backlog that is accumulated this year we will know exact number in Oct demand data)


P.S: As i mentioned in my earlier posts having PD of May2008,I am also not happy with this but this is what numbers are pointing to at present.

Nope. Not frustrated at all. I have reached a stage ( or age may be :)) where you don't get frustrated with things not in your control. My point is predicting dates under assumption that agencies will act logically may not add much value,IMO. To give example, in your above posts you are assuming some numbers based on what CO said. Well, we all know what was said in Jan, Feb,Mar VBs this year and how that dramatically changed in matter of one VB.

[ihp62as]

Hi,
Since the ROW visa cutoff date is now Jan 2009, how does that affect people who are porting from eb3 to eb2? My eb3 PD was Jun2008, but I ported to EB2 and applied 485 just a few days before the ROW dates retrogressed to Jan2009. When my application gets processed, will I be getting visas from the EB2 ROW pool or from spillover pool? I read somewhere that uscis assigns visa to ported applicants from the spillover visas it gets from other categories. I am hoping I interpreted it wrong, but if not, does it mean I have to wait until after October 2012 for any chance at a visa?

[qesehmk]

Since your ported PD is not retrogressed, you should expect GC in anytime during processing time which should be 3-6 months for EB2ROW. Good luck!


Hi,
Since the ROW visa cutoff date is now Jan 2009, how does that affect people who are porting from eb3 to eb2? My eb3 PD was Jun2008, but I ported to EB2 and applied 485 just a few days before the ROW dates retrogressed to Jan2009. When my application gets processed, will I be getting visas from the EB2 ROW pool or from spillover pool? I read somewhere that uscis assigns visa to ported applicants from the spillover visas it gets from other categories. I am hoping I interpreted it wrong, but if not, does it mean I have to wait until after October 2012 for any chance at a visa?

[qesehmk]

OMB - it depends on your country of chargeability and category. Assuming your EB2I - i would bet Oct 2007 should get it by Dec 2012 max.

For Oct 2008 - I would say Sep 2013 with 80-90% of chance.


I have a PD of October 2008 - when can I expect Green Card ?

[ihp62as]

I hope so! I just wanted a little more clarity if you don't mind, how does the visa bulletin take into account porting applicants? e.g., say in the visa bulletin posted in April for May 2012, they have 1000 visas available for eb2-row PD upto April2012. If they get 200 applicants porting from EB3 to EB2, these 200 applicants will get the visas from the 1000 May bucket, correct? So for next month, they will have only 800 visas for original eb2-ROW, correct?

[harapatta2012]

Q-Based on the pessimistic mood around EB2I date move in FY2013, what makes you still so positive about OCt 2008 becoming current in Dec 2012?
Isnt it more like oct 2008 getting current in FY2014 end.


OMB - it depends on your country of chargeability and category. Assuming your EB2I - i would bet you should get yours by Dec 2012 max.

[vizcard]

Hi,
Since the ROW visa cutoff date is now Jan 2009, how does that affect people who are porting from eb3 to eb2? My eb3 PD was Jun2008, but I ported to EB2 and applied 485 just a few days before the ROW dates retrogressed to Jan2009. When my application gets processed, will I be getting visas from the EB2 ROW pool or from spillover pool? I read somewhere that uscis assigns visa to ported applicants from the spillover visas it gets from other categories. I am hoping I interpreted it wrong, but if not, does it mean I have to wait until after October 2012 for any chance at a visa?


Since your ported PD is not retrogressed, you should expect GC in anytime during processing time which should be 3-6 months for EB2ROW. Good luck!

Q - you are assuming ihp62as is ROW. If he/she is IC, then what you say won't apply.
IHP - are you IC or ROW ?

[vizcard]

OMB - it depends on your country of chargeability and category. Assuming your EB2I - i would bet you should get yours by Dec 2012 max.


Q-Based on the pessimistic mood around EB2I date move in FY2013, what makes you still so positive about OCt 2008 becoming current in Dec 2012?
Isnt it more like oct 2008 getting current in FY2014 end.

Q - did you mean Dec 2013 ? That's the earliest Oct 2008 can be current again.

[ihp62as]

Yes, vizcard, I am ROW.

[qesehmk]

I hope so! I just wanted a little more clarity if you don't mind, how does the visa bulletin take into account porting applicants? e.g., say in the visa bulletin posted in April for May 2012, they have 1000 visas available for eb2-row PD upto April2012. If they get 200 applicants porting from EB3 to EB2, these 200 applicants will get the visas from the 1000 May bucket, correct? So for next month, they will have only 800 visas for original eb2-ROW, correct?

Visa bulletin doesn't care for porting. All they see is visa demand coming in from USCIS. When USCIS sees all 485 applications for ROW - they are going to process the ones with oldest PD first. In this case since your date is ported - they will consider the ported date as a normal EB2ROW PD for your application and it will be picked up processed and when approved a visa number will be requested from DOS. Then DOS will simply assign it since the PD is available. Quota doesn't matter here since they have already factored in the probable demand and accordingly retrogressed the EB2ROW dates.

p.s. - So when EB2ROW is made current as you can imagine - the general monthly demand is less than or equal to monthly quota for EB2ROW which should be about 9% of 28K-34K depending on whether DOS actually carves out MP quota separately for EB2MP. I am not sure. For EB2M actually it doesn't make sense. For EB2P it may.


Q-Based on the pessimistic mood around EB2I date move in FY2013, what makes you still so positive about OCt 2008 becoming current in Dec 2012?
Isnt it more like oct 2008 getting current in FY2014 end.


Q - did you mean Dec 2013 ? That's the earliest Oct 2008 can be current again.
Harapatta and Vizcard - I misread the date as Oct 2007 and hence I replied Dec 2012. However for Oct 2008 - s/he should get it by Sep 2013. I think Oct 2008 could be current for EB2IC by May 2013. The reason being that although ROW is backlogged ... it was only for 3-4 months. It has to become current in Oct 2012 bulletin. It will become current. So effectively the ROW impact is probably 8K. That 8K is probably offset by the EB2IC 8K from 2008 that were approved in 2012 year. So we are talking about 1 year of EB2IC demand between Oct 2008-Oct 2007. Will that be cleared in 2013? I think so.

That is approximately equal to total SOFAD of anywhere between 24K-30K (less 8K approved in 2012). I still think that it is quite possible. But we will know better with the next 485 inventory of course.

[kd2008]

September 2012 Visa bulletin http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5759.html

EB2IC -- U
EB2ROWMP --01JAN09

D. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On August 8th, CIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2012 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2012 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 144,951

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2012 the per-country limit is 25,967. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,419.

[shreyasai2004]

VB Sep 2012 Out and Dates not moved. Its Copy of Aug 2012 Bullitein

[suninphx]

September 2012 Visa bulletin http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5759.html

EB2IC -- U
EB2ROWMP --01JAN09
Thanks Kanmani.
Good point is EB1 is still current.

[vishnu]

I like the fact that EB1 remains current... so the initial rumors that EB2 IC was over allocated spillover from EB1 can be put to rest.

[TeddyKoochu]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5759.html

September VB is out, good to see EB1 as current and EB2 ROW still available. Next milestone is when they announce that numbers are over for the year. For EB1 still cases filed as far back as 2011 are being approved.

[Spectator]

I like the fact that EB1 remains current... so the initial rumors that EB2 IC was over allocated spillover from EB1 can be put to rest.Not at all, otherwise EB2-WW would not be retrogressed.

It just means that there are just enough visas for demand, helped by the extra 1.5k received by EB1 because of the increase in the overall allocation to 145k.

[vishnu]

Spec - when i mentioned overallocated, i did mean overallocating more visas to EB2 than what is required by EB1 itself...and that appears not to be the case.

[parsvnath]

All - My priority date is Feb 2008. When can I expect the GC?

[qesehmk]

well said. Agree.
It just means that there are just enough visas for demand,

On another note - check out the dates for F2A. They are in 2010 across the board.

We have said it many times on this forum and we repeat again - even this correction of counting dependent numbers from F2A as opposed to EB2 would significantly alleviate EB woes.

This is what F2A is:
A. (F2A) Spouses and Children of Permanent Residents: 77% of the overall second preference limitation, of which 75% are exempt from the per-country limit;

[ChampU]

If I understand the process and read the data correctly, we can safely assume that in Oct. bulletin:

1. The COD for EB2-ROW goes away and it becomes current again.
2. EB2- IC become available and have a COD of around July/August 2007.

For rest of the Fy-2013,
3. The COD for Q1-FY 2013 bulletins remain stagnant or have very marginal movement (< a month). This allows CO to judge the demand and have a ballpark estimate of the possible SO..
4. The COD moves to possibly end of CY-2007 by the end of Q2.. CO plays it safe and has enough wiggle room to accommodate demand spikes (if any) for the rest of the year..
5. In FY-Q3 and Q4, the COD moves anywhere between 3-15 months, depend on the demand..

Comments??

[openaccount]

If I understand the process and read the data correctly, we can safely assume that in Oct. bulletin:

1. The COD for EB2-ROW goes away and it becomes current again.
2. EB2- IC become available and have a COD of around July/August 2007.

For rest of the Fy-2013,
3. The COD for Q1-FY 2013 bulletins remain stagnant or have very marginal movement (< a month). This allows CO to judge the demand and have a ballpark estimate of the possible SO..
4. The COD moves to possibly end of CY-2007 by the end of Q2.. CO plays it safe and has enough wiggle room to accommodate demand spikes (if any) for the rest of the year..
5. In FY-Q3 and Q4, the COD moves anywhere between 3-15 months, depend on the demand..

Comments??

Agree with all of your points except 4th point

4.EB2ROW had COD for 2012-Q4 so there will be decent number of applications in Q1-2013(Q1-2013+Q4-2012) which would eventually convert to demand by Q2-2013, if this demand is less than what CO expects at that point of time then what you mentioned might happen.

[veni001]

D. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On August 8th, CIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2012 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2012 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 144,951

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2012 the per-country limit is 25,967. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,419.

DOS published limit was 140k (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf) but EB received an additional 4,951 from FB spillover!

[yank]

DOS published limit was 140k but EB received an additional 4,951 from FB spillover!

So, these additional visas from FB will go to EB2-ROW and reduce it's backlog by 5K or will it go to EB1.

[qesehmk]

it doesn't matter eitherway. However one can say that since this is a new find on DoS' part, this will alleviate ROW retrogression and makes it a certainty that the dates will become current in October (unless HR3012 passes).

If HR3012 passes EB2ROW should expect further retrogression.


DOS published limit was 140k but EB received an additional 4,951 from FB spillover!

So, these additional visas from FB will go to EB2-ROW and reduce it's backlog by 5K or will it go to EB1.

[openaccount]

it doesn't matter eitherway. However one can say that since this is a new find on DoS' part, this will alleviate ROW retrogression and makes it a certainty that the dates will become current in October (unless HR3012 passes).

If HR3012 passes EB2ROW should expect further retrogression.
Spec/Q,

Do you know how SO from FB is distributed across EB and when is it allocated in FY2012 or FY2013. I believe it is used up in FY2012 most probably by EB2IC as this category consumed more.

[Spectator]

Spec/Q,

Do you know how SO from FB is distributed across EB and when is it allocated in FY2012 or FY2013. I believe it is used up in FY2012 most probably by EB2IC as this category consumed more.It is allocated per the original % allocations to the EB Categories given in INA 203(b). It will be used this year FY2012 because the under use by FB occurred in FY2011.

EB1 - 28.6%
EB2 - 28.6%
EB3 - 28.6%
EB4 - 7.1%
EB5 - 7.1%


For 144,951 visas the split would be (extra in brackets):

EB1 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB2 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB3 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB4 - 10,292 - (352)
EB5 - 10,291 - (351)

Total - 144,951 - 4,951

For EB1-EB3, 7% rises from 2,803 to 2,902 visas. and 7% over all EB rises from 9,800 to 10,147.

EB2 would have received an extra 1,807 spillover visas from EB1 & EB5. Whether EB4 is going to give any is unknown.

[ChampU]

Spec/Q,

Do you know how SO from FB is distributed across EB and when is it allocated in FY2012 or FY2013. I believe it is used up in FY2012 most probably by EB2IC as this category consumed more.

I don't have any data to back it up, but I think FB -> EB transfer occurs as a band aid to ensure the DoS meets its year end goals. e.g. The priorities for DoS for FY2012 might be to :
A. Ensure EB1 stays C
B. Provide enough visas to ensure that the backlog created by establishing a COD for EB2-ROW is addressed and the category remains C in the new FY. While the DoS cannot control the demand, they can always move visa numbers at their disposal.
5k is a large enough number to ensure both..

[openaccount]

It is allocated per the original % allocations to the EB Categories given in INA 203(b). It will be used this year FY2012 because the under use by FB occurred in FY2011.

EB1 - 28.6%
EB2 - 28.6%
EB3 - 28.6%
EB4 - 7.1%
EB5 - 7.1%


For 144,951 visas the split would be (extra in brackets):

EB1 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB2 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB3 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB4 - 10,292 - (352)
EB5 - 10,291 - (351)

Total - 144,951 - 4,951

For EB1-EB3, 7% rises from 2,803 to 2,881 visas. and 7% over all EB rises from 9,800 to 10,147.

EB2 would have received an extra 1,807 spillover visas from EB1 & EB5. Whether EB4 is going to give any is unknown.

Spec,

Thank you & very informative post from you, as you do always especially with data :)

[ChampU]

It is allocated per the original % allocations to the EB Categories given in INA 203(b). It will be used this year FY2012 because the under use by FB occurred in FY2011.

EB1 - 28.6%
EB2 - 28.6%
EB3 - 28.6%
EB4 - 7.1%
EB5 - 7.1%


For 144,951 visas the split would be (extra in brackets):

EB1 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB2 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB3 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB4 - 10,292 - (352)
EB5 - 10,291 - (351)

Total - 144,951 - 4,951

For EB1-EB3, 7% rises from 2,803 to 2,881 visas. and 7% over all EB rises from 9,800 to 10,147.

EB2 would have received an extra 1,807 spillover visas from EB1 & EB5. Whether EB4 is going to give any is unknown.

Spec:

A few questions regarding the numbers:

1. Are the 4951 numbers are distributed throughout the entire year or is it a last month/last quarter infusion?
2. If EB2 did receive the 1807 extra visas and with EB2 - IC being "U" since June, shouldn't the COD for EB2-ROW move, at least by a week? It hasn't moved since it was established in July.

Meanwhile, EB3 dates have been moving at a rate more than usual, since June.. It could be because of 1456 visas (or possibly more.. )

[Spectator]

The extra 5k visas in FY2012 is all very nice, but it doesn't fundementally change anything for next year.

The extra 1.5k available to EB1 may, or may not have saved having to impose a Cut Off Date within EB1 this year, but it doesn't really matter since the numbers were only ever going to be quite low anyway.

EB2-WW will still have been retrogressed for 3 months and 6-8k approvals will now take place in FY2013 instead of FY2012 (unless the backlog is allowed to increase).

Assuming it represents a real increase in EB2-WW approvals next year, that reduces the spillover to EB2-I by the same amount (unless spillover is extremely high, EB2-C won't receive any).

I know it essentially all irons out in the wash, since there were extra approvals in FY2012, but they weren't exactly strictly by PD order were they?

6-8k represents a significant % of any spillover for FY2013 and several months movement for EB2-I. Unlike Q, I do not think EB2-I can look forward to historic levels of spillover visas in FY2013. I fear it is going to be a very difficult year, unfortunately IMO.

(hope that doesn't sound too much like a prediction suninphx) :)

[vizcard]

Spec - I hope you don't have a job writing fortune cookies :P

On a more serious note, I believe the reality is somewhere between Q and Spec's analysis. There is usually some unplanned event that results in date predictions getting screwed. (Note I said dates and not numbers). I don't count HR3012 in that "unplanned event" bucket.

[Spectator]

Spec:

A few questions regarding the numbers:

1. Are the 4951 numbers are distributed throughout the entire year or is it a last month/last quarter infusion?
2. If EB2 did receive the 1807 extra visas and with EB2 - IC being "U" since June, shouldn't the COD for EB2-ROW move, at least by a week? It hasn't moved since it was established in July.

Meanwhile, EB3 dates have been moving at a rate more than usual, since June.. It could be because of 1456 visas (or possibly more.. )ChampU,

The only reason we have only just found out about the extra visas is that DOS rely on getting some information from USCIS to "officially" set the FB limit (immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and number of parolees in the second preceding year). The September VB confirms that USCIS were even later than usual supplying that information:


These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On August 8th, CIS provided the required data to VO.

However, the exact numbers do not alter the fact that FB would get 226,000 anyway because the calculation is always going to default to the minimum number of 226,000 because of how the calculation is made. I covered this in a post a few pages back.

DOS knew the number of FB approvals in FY2011 shortly after FY2011 closed, so they also knew that EB had an allocation of about 145k for FY2012. DOS normally publish the Visa Report in January, but waited until August this year for some unknown reason.

With the possible exception of October, IMO the visas have been allocated all year by DOS with the certain knowledge of the higher number available.

There is no thought in my mind that this "news" has had any effect in the last quarter or last month.

I hope that answers your question.

[suninphx]

(hope that doesn't sound too much like a prediction suninphx) :)

Spec - :).

Thanks for numbers :)

[redsox2009]

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2012 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2012 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 144,951

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2012 the per-country limit is 25,967. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,419.

Based on this, do we have to assume that there will be country limit both FB and EB combined together?

from where did this new 4951 visas come from?

Can someone throw light on this.

[chengisk]

Please check some of the previous posts, including, http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=29242#post29242 and the replies to that one.

[vizcard]

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2012 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2012 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 144,951

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2012 the per-country limit is 25,967. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,419.

Based on this, do we have to assume that there will be country limit both FB and EB combined together?

from where did this new 4951 visas come from?

Can someone throw light on this.

The per country limit is based on combined FB and EB which is why South Korea EB2 never has a COD even though they use more than allocated EB visas. The additional 5K visas come from the FB quota. Spec and others have discussed this a few posts previously.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Spec, Q , Veni , Teddy ,

Would you guys please provide your take on predictions for 2013 and any possible surprises etc etc .

Understand lots of number crunching that went thanks to all gurus specially Spec for amazing clarity.

[Spectator]

Spec, Q , Veni , Teddy ,

Would you guys please provide your take on predictions for 2013 and any possible surprises etc etc .

Understand lots of number crunching that went thanks to all gurus specially Spec for amazing clarity.Eb2_Dec07,

I think you know how difficult that is.

I can give you some figures and you can make your own mind up.

Without presenting a huge spreadsheet, I have to make some assumptions. I will lay them out and if you violently disagree with any of them, I can use any assumptions you have, if you prefer.

a) I am using the current USCIS Inventory figures (I can use the latest DOS Demand figures or an average of the two).

b) 25% of pre 2007 cases will not be approved (no particular reason for that figure).

c) 5% of all cases in the Inventory will not be approved.

d) India will have 4.5k porting in FY2013. This is 3k porting for FY2013 itself plus 1.5k porting cases that have built up between May-October 2012 when dates were Unavailable. I think 3k / year is the minimum figure people have been using.

e) China will have 1.25k porting. That is a guess based very loosely on CO's comments.

Using the above, until the total SOFAD for EB2-IC reaches 15.25k, India will receive all spillover. After that, China starts to use some. China can reach about March 2008 on the 2.8k initial allocation with the assumptions above. This is taken into account below.

This would give the approximate movement for the EB2-IC SOFAD shown.

SOFAD EB2-IC ---- EB2-India
----- 8,000 ------- Pre August 2007
---- 10,000 ------- September 2007
---- 12,500 ------- December 2007
---- 15,000 ------- March 2008
---- 17,500 ------- April 2008
---- 20,000 ------- June 2008
---- 22,500 ------- July 2008
---- 25,000 ------- September 2008
---- 27,500 ------- November 2008
---- 30,000 ------- January 2009

I leave you decide what level of SOFAD is possible in FY2013.

Of course, it also makes an assumption that Cut Off Dates will be moved in a more logical manner in FY2013.

A PS to Q,

Maybe we are getting to the point where the FY2013 Prediction Thread should be started.

[sai999]

Eb2_Dec07,

I think you know how difficult that is.

I can give you some figures and you can make your own mind up.

Without presenting a huge spreadsheet, I have to make some assumptions. I will lay them out and if you violently disagree with any of them, I can use any assumptions you have, if you prefer.

a) I am using the current USCIS Inventory figures (I can use the latest DOS Demand figures or an average of the two).

b) 25% of pre 2007 cases will not be approved (no particular reason for that figure).

c) 5% of all cases in the Inventory will not be approved.

d) India will have 4.5k porting in FY2013. This is 3k porting for FY2013 itself plus 1.5k porting cases that have built up between May-October 2012 when dates were Unavailable. I think 3k / year is the minimum figure people have been using.

e) China will have 1.25k porting. That is a guess based very loosely on CO's comments.

Using the above, until the total SOFAD for EB2-IC reaches 15.25k, India will receive all spillover. After that, China starts to use some. China can reach about March 2008 on the 2.8k initial allocation with the assumptions above. This is taken into account below.

This would give the approximate movement for the EB2-IC SOFAD shown.

SOFAD EB2-IC ---- EB2-India
----- 8,000 ------- Pre August 2007
---- 10,000 ------- September 2007
---- 12,500 ------- December 2007
---- 15,000 ------- March 2008
---- 17,500 ------- April 2008
---- 20,000 ------- June 2008
---- 22,500 ------- July 2008
---- 25,000 ------- September 2008
---- 27,500 ------- November 2008
---- 30,000 ------- January 2009

I leave you decide what level of SOFAD is possible in FY2013.

Of course, it also makes an assumption that Cut Off Dates will be moved in a more logical manner in FY2013.

A PS to Q,

Maybe we are getting to the point where the FY2013 Prediction Thread should be started.

I must must say i am amazed the quality of the post , irrespective of the number crunching i must the way you frame words are excellent...i think you are CO(DOS) and you will provide more predictions in the future with great quality.

[ChampU]

Who are you, Spec?

Lol.. ACP Pradyuman to Daya.. "Daya, Gaadi nikalo.. aur pataa karo yeh Spec kaun hain aur uske paas itni jaankari kaise hain? Numbers ka champion hain.. iska matlab hain isne jaroor school mein math padha hoga....Pataa karo is ilaake mein kaunse schools Mathematics padhate hain.. "

Translation (ACP Pradyuman and Daya are characters from CID.. a hindi detective series on Sony.. They are known for their ridiculous graphics and stupid dialogues)
ACP Pradyuman to Daya : " Daya.. get the car and find out who this Spec is and how does he know so much.. He is a champion of numbers and that brings me to the conclusion, he definitely studied Mathematics in school. Find out what are the schools that teach Mathematics in this area."

[makmohan]

Lol.. ACP Pradyuman to Daya.. "Daya, Gaadi nikalo.. aur pataa karo yeh Spec kaun hain aur uske paas itni jaankari kaise hain? Numbers ka champion hain.. iska matlab hain isne jaroor school mein math padha hoga....Pataa karo is ilaake mein kaunse schools Mathematics padhate hain.. "

Translation (ACP Pradyuman and Daya are characters from CID.. a hindi detective series on Sony.. They are known for their ridiculous graphics and stupid dialogues)
ACP Pradyuman to Daya : " Daya.. get the car and find out who this Spec is and how does he know so much.. He is a champion of numbers and that brings me to the conclusion, he definitely studied Mathematics in school. Find out what are the schools that teach Mathematics in this area."

LOL ChampU.

ACP doing hand gestures as if he is solving rubic cube puzzle - "Daya tod do yeh darwaza aur nikalo Spec ko bahar aur pucho usase ki usaka Math teacher kaun tha aur usne excel modelling kahase sikha?"
"Daya, please break this door and get Spec out. Ask him about his Math teacher and the place where he learnt excel modelling."

Great work everyone. Esp. Spec, Teddy and "Q" among others !

Frankly speaking, I feel that your work keeps our hopes alive and that to me is a greater cause than getting close-to-real predictions. But you guys also excel in that area despite all obstacles.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Spec , as always superb analysis , no less than a work of art . I'm not surprised if you are an accountant or a project manager. Yes I do agree , it is that time to open a 2013 thread. Thanks for a great start on this topic . We look for comments from other great minds Q, Teddy , Veni and gurus before chiming in. Actually if I may ask, even better if gurus can start building on Spec's well followed through numbers and project a SOFAD for 2013 and variances in SOFAD based on other head/tail winds.


Eb2_Dec07,

I think you know how difficult that is.

I can give you some figures and you can make your own mind up.

Without presenting a huge spreadsheet, I have to make some assumptions. I will lay them out and if you violently disagree with any of them, I can use any assumptions you have, if you prefer.

a) I am using the current USCIS Inventory figures (I can use the latest DOS Demand figures or an average of the two).

b) 25% of pre 2007 cases will not be approved (no particular reason for that figure).

c) 5% of all cases in the Inventory will not be approved.

d) India will have 4.5k porting in FY2013. This is 3k porting for FY2013 itself plus 1.5k porting cases that have built up between May-October 2012 when dates were Unavailable. I think 3k / year is the minimum figure people have been using.

e) China will have 1.25k porting. That is a guess based very loosely on CO's comments.

Using the above, until the total SOFAD for EB2-IC reaches 15.25k, India will receive all spillover. After that, China starts to use some. China can reach about March 2008 on the 2.8k initial allocation with the assumptions above. This is taken into account below.

This would give the approximate movement for the EB2-IC SOFAD shown.

SOFAD EB2-IC ---- EB2-India
----- 8,000 ------- Pre August 2007
---- 10,000 ------- September 2007
---- 12,500 ------- December 2007
---- 15,000 ------- March 2008
---- 17,500 ------- April 2008
---- 20,000 ------- June 2008
---- 22,500 ------- July 2008
---- 25,000 ------- September 2008
---- 27,500 ------- November 2008
---- 30,000 ------- January 2009

I leave you decide what level of SOFAD is possible in FY2013.

Of course, it also makes an assumption that Cut Off Dates will be moved in a more logical manner in FY2013.

A PS to Q,

Maybe we are getting to the point where the FY2013 Prediction Thread should be started.

[Spectator]

Thanks guys, I'm humbled.

The quotes were hilarious (thanks for the translation). They sound like something Gene Hunt would say in Life On Mars (http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars_%28TV_series%29) or Ashes To Ashes (http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0025007/quotes).

[bvsamrat]

It is an excellent analysis.

Hats off SPEC !


Eb2_Dec07,

I think you know how difficult that is.

I can give you some figures and you can make your own mind up.

Without presenting a huge spreadsheet, I have to make some assumptions. I will lay them out and if you violently disagree with any of them, I can use any assumptions you have, if you prefer.

a) I am using the current USCIS Inventory figures (I can use the latest DOS Demand figures or an average of the two).

b) 25% of pre 2007 cases will not be approved (no particular reason for that figure).

c) 5% of all cases in the Inventory will not be approved.

d) India will have 4.5k porting in FY2013. This is 3k porting for FY2013 itself plus 1.5k porting cases that have built up between May-October 2012 when dates were Unavailable. I think 3k / year is the minimum figure people have been using.

e) China will have 1.25k porting. That is a guess based very loosely on CO's comments.

Using the above, until the total SOFAD for EB2-IC reaches 15.25k, India will receive all spillover. After that, China starts to use some. China can reach about March 2008 on the 2.8k initial allocation with the assumptions above. This is taken into account below.

This would give the approximate movement for the EB2-IC SOFAD shown.

SOFAD EB2-IC ---- EB2-India
----- 8,000 ------- Pre August 2007
---- 10,000 ------- September 2007
---- 12,500 ------- December 2007
---- 15,000 ------- March 2008
---- 17,500 ------- April 2008
---- 20,000 ------- June 2008
---- 22,500 ------- July 2008
---- 25,000 ------- September 2008
---- 27,500 ------- November 2008
---- 30,000 ------- January 2009

I leave you decide what level of SOFAD is possible in FY2013.

Of course, it also makes an assumption that Cut Off Dates will be moved in a more logical manner in FY2013.

A PS to Q,

Maybe we are getting to the point where the FY2013 Prediction Thread should be started.

[vizcard]

Wow FY13 thread already. I remember the start of the FY12 thread. Time really flies...although not fast enuff when u r waiting for GC.

[pch053]

Spec,
Just a very naive question: for SOFAD EB2-IC, you are considering 5.6K year quota for IC + spillovers (going by the definition), right? So, 8K SOFAD implies 2.4K spillover. Also, your table shows EB2-I date to be pre-Aug'07 for total 8K SOFAD. Out of this 8K for EB2-IC, 5.2K will go to EB2-I. I guess, the assumption is most of these 5.2K visas will be consumed by EB3->EB2 porting cases with PD prior to Aug'07. Am I correct in my understanding here? The dates in the table then progressively move forward based on more spillover visas. I think the above table will be a good guideline for predicting 2013 PDs with 3 mains unknowns for estimating the spillovers: i) EB1 usage, incl. FD from EB1->EB2, ii) FA from EB2ROW->EB2I/C (we believe this is going to be less than usual) and iii) spillovers from EB5 (which going by the numbers available might be fewer this year).

As usual, an excellent, lucid and detailed analysis from you!

[Spectator]

Spec,
Just a very naive question: for SOFAD EB2-IC, you are considering 5.6K year quota for IC + spillovers (going by the definition), right? So, 8K SOFAD implies 2.4K spillover. Also, your table shows EB2-I date to be pre-Aug'07 for total 8K SOFAD. Out of this 8K for EB2-IC, 5.2K will go to EB2-I. I guess, the assumption is most of these 5.2K visas will be consumed by EB3->EB2 porting cases with PD prior to Aug'07. Am I correct in my understanding here? The dates in the table then progressively move forward based on more spillover visas. I think the above table will be a good guideline for predicting 2013 PDs with 3 mains unknowns for estimating the spillovers: i) EB1 usage, incl. FD from EB1->EB2, ii) FA from EB2ROW->EB2I/C (we believe this is going to be less than usual) and iii) spillovers from EB5 (which going by the numbers available might be fewer this year).

As usual, an excellent, lucid and detailed analysis from you!pch053,

These are very good questions.


Just a very naive question: for SOFAD EB2-IC, you are considering 5.6K year quota for IC + spillovers (going by the definition), right? So, 8K SOFAD implies 2.4K spillover.

That is correct. SOFAD refers to all visas available, including the 5.6k initial allocation to EB2-IC.


Also, your table shows EB2-I date to be pre-Aug'07 for total 8K SOFAD. Out of this 8K for EB2-IC, 5.2K will go to EB2-I. I guess, the assumption is most of these 5.2K visas will be consumed by EB3->EB2 porting cases with PD prior to Aug'07. Am I correct in my understanding here?

Again, correct. Out of the 8k, EB2-I would use 5.2k. The 5.2k would be split as 0.7k existing cases plus 4.5k porting.

Also, as I think you already understand, it is important to understand that these represent FY ending dates if the visas were approved logically. Approval of cases during the year later than the ending date would push the final date backwards. An orderly progression through the year is not going to happen and a certain number of porting cases will be spread throughout the year - they do not all already exist ready to go. Cases near the opening COD will have a better chance of approval initially.

I'm pretty sure that if CO followed true monthly allotments of about 250 cases per month, then existing "ready to approve" porting cases could use the allotment for several months, but I don't think that is how it will happen. Even without new porting cases, there are already significant numbers for a Cut Off Date of mid August 2007. That seems to be the earliest that CO will open FY2013, so most of the total initial allocation of 2.8k is going to be used very quickly.


I think the above table will be a good guideline for predicting 2013 PDs with 3 mains unknowns for estimating the spillovers: i) EB1 usage, incl. FD from EB1->EB2, ii) FA from EB2ROW->EB2I/C (we believe this is going to be less than usual) and iii) spillovers from EB5 (which going by the numbers available might be fewer this year).

I think those are the only ones we might be able to gauge. In addition there are the unknowns of EB4 and whether FB makes another contribution. Generally, I think we have to "ignore" these until we get some further information. If EB4 is low again in FY2012, then we should probably factor in a contribution, but the there never seems to be any updates on EB4 during the year. I hope DOS return to publishing the Visa Statistics in January.

Obviously, I am hoping to be able to update the figures based on a USCIS Inventory as of October 1, 2012 or thereabouts. Most of the 1.5k allowed for new porting cases between May-October 2012 should then be included in the bases figures and we can just use a base porting figure.

[Spectator]

We are now in the end game for FY2012, so here's some speculation for the numbers via back calculation.

EB1 appears to be heading for mid 30 thousands - let's call it 35k, which yields 6.5k spillover. EB1 usage may be slightly higher, but approvals seem to come in spurts on Trackitt.

EB5 appears to be heading for 6.2k according to CO, which yields 4k spillover.

The EB2 allocation of 41.5k plus the spillover above gives a total of 52k.

The EB2-WW share of that allocation is 35.5k. If we take the 8k backlog for EB2-WW that most people are talking about due to retrogression, then EB2-WW have used 27.5k of 52k.

That means EB2-IC have used 24.5k.

If EB4 contributes anything, it would both increase the total available to EB2 and the numbers used by EB2-IC.

Those numbers are surprisingly close to what I have calculated. I have EB2-WW at a slightly lower figure and EB2-IC at a slightly higher figure.

Directionally, I think the numbers are probably about right.

I think we are now starting to use the final month's worth of visas and expect them to run out in the first half of September, as they did last year.

Edit to add:

CO said previously in late February (in the Alan Lee article (http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/articles/a2012-03-27.html)) "that he expected approximately 55,000 EB-2 numbers to be available for the year" (FY2012). I think this sets the upper bound of visas available to EB2. The number may have (and almost certainly have) subsequently reduced due to higher approvals elsewhere

It is possible that EB2-IC have already been given some of the EB2-WW allocation and the figure is higher than that calculated above, but the limit to that increase would be 3k. That would also lower the number already consumed by EB2-WW and set the expected backlog in the 6-9k range.

The other alternative, already discussed above, is that CO is expecting up to 3k to be available from EB4.

[qesehmk]

Spec don't forget 5k from fb that was declared in separate bulletin.
We are now in the end game for FY2012, so here's some speculation for the numbers via back calculation.

EB1 appears to be heading for mid 30 thousands - let's call it 35k, which yields 6.5k spillover. EB1 usage may be slightly higher, but approvals seem to come in spurts on Trackitt.

EB5 appears to be heading for 6.2k according to CO, which yields 4k spillover.

The EB2 allocation of 41.5k plus the spillover above gives a total of 52k.

The EB2-WW share of that allocation is 35.5k. If we take the 8k backlog for EB2-WW that most people are talking about due to retrogression, then EB2-WW have used 27.5k of 52k.

That means EB2-IC have used 24.5k.

If EB4 contributes anything, it would both increase the total available to EB2 and the numbers used by EB2-IC.

Those numbers are surprisingly close to what I have calculated. I have EB2-WW at a slightly lower figure and EB2-IC at a slightly higher figure.

Directionally, I think the numbers are probably about right.

I think we are now starting to use the final month's worth of visas and expect them to run out in the first half of September, as they did last year.

Edit to add:

CO said previously in late February (in the Alan Lee article (http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/articles/a2012-03-27.html)) "that he expected approximately 55,000 EB-2 numbers to be available for the year" (FY2012). I think this sets the upper bound of visas available to EB2. The number may have (and almost certainly have) subsequently reduced due to higher approvals elsewhere

It is possible that EB2-IC have already been given dome of the EB2-WW allocation and the figure is higher than that calculated above, but the limit to that increase would be 3k. That would also lower the number already consumed by EB2-WW and set the expected backlog in the 6-9k range.

The other alternative, already discussed above, is that CO is expecting up to 3k to be available form EB4.

[veni001]

Spec don't forget 5k from fb that was declared in separate bulletin.

Q,
Spec numbers above include FB spillover.

[qesehmk]

oh ok... that's how he (think so!) calculates 41.5k limit.
Q,
Spec numbers above include FB spillover.

[Spectator]

oh ok... that's how he (think so!) calculates 41.5k limit.Q,

From a previous post


It is allocated per the original % allocations to the EB Categories given in INA 203(b). It will be used this year FY2012 because the under use by FB occurred in FY2011.

EB1 - 28.6%
EB2 - 28.6%
EB3 - 28.6%
EB4 - 7.1%
EB5 - 7.1%


For 144,951 visas the split would be (extra in brackets):

EB1 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB2 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB3 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB4 - 10,292 - (352)
EB5 - 10,291 - (351)

Total - 144,951 - 4,951

[Spectator]

My desire is not to say this is how it is. Rather, I would like to stimulate some discussion. I would like to understand what other people are thinking and why.

Feel free to use your own figures in the calculation below.

Based on EB2-IC having received 25k in FY2012.
Based on EB2-WW backlog of 8k due to retrogression.
Based on 145k EB visas in FY2012.

The simple underlying SOFAD would be

Gross SOFAD ------ 25
Less WW backlog -- (8)

Net SOFAD -------- 17

What would happen if the same number were available in FY2013?

No-one knows whether EB will receive extra visas from FB in FY2013. If not, only 140k visas would be available. The extra available in FY2012 (approx 2k) needs to be deducted.

Net SOFAD FY2012 --------------- 17.0
Less extra from FB in FY2012 --- (3.4)

SOFAD corrected for 140k -------- 13.6

Increased usage by EB5 can reduce the number available by 2-4k. This is probable due to the increased I-526 receipts USCIS have received.

Corrected SOFAD for FY2013 ------ 13.6
Less increase in EB5 approvals -- (3.0)

SOFAD corrected for EB5 usage --- 10.6

EB1, EB2-WW and EB4 use are the variable for FY2013.

I don't see any evidence that EB1 approvals will decline. The underlying backlog was increased by 10k in FY2011 due to low approvals (the I-140 numbers and denial ratios should have given 35-36k) and appears to have been left at that level during FY2012. However, there haven't been any published I-140 figures for EB1 for a considerable time, but it seems relatively unlikely that the annual numbers have declined.

There is a chance that EB2-WW will use some of the available spillover due to the backlog that has built up.

On the other hand, USCIS may just continue with a higher backlog for EB2-WW, as they appear to have done for EB1.

Until retrogression, EB2-WW did look on course to use close to their full allocation.

Eventually, the PERM data suggests that EB2-WW approvals should fall (unless they have abandoned EB3 altogether). The middle ground is to say that EB2-WW will neither use or contribute spillover in FY2013.

Currently, I have no idea about EB4. If EB4 is underused in FY2012, as it was in FY2011, then it should be considered a factor for FY2013 spillover. Untill then, it is "one off" for calculation purposes in my eyes.

[qesehmk]

Spec - I need to do some work before I say I disagee or agree w your numbers. My gut feel is you may be understating sofad for 2012. For 2013 I have suggestion though purely from a conceptual perspective as folllows:

If EB2IC received X sofad and EB2ROW accumulated "incremental" Y backlog in 2012. Then in 2013 everything else being the same EB2IC should expect to see (X - 2Y) sofad assuming DOS/USCIS is not sacrificing or starving EB2ROW as they did in 2012.


My desire is not to say this is how it is. Rather, I would like to stimulate some discussion. I would like to understand what other people are thinking and why.

Feel free to use your own figures in the calculation below.

Based on EB2-IC having received 25k in FY2012.
Based on EB2-WW backlog of 8k due to retrogression.
Based on 145k EB visas in FY2012.

The simple underlying SOFAD would be

Gross SOFAD ------ 25
Less WW backlog -- (8)

Net SOFAD -------- 17

What would happen if the same number were available in FY2013?

No-one knows whether EB will receive extra visas from FB in FY2013. If not, only 140k visas would be available. The extra available in FY2012 (approx 2k) needs to be deducted.

Net SOFAD FY2012 ---------------- 17
Less extra from FB in FY2012 ---- (2)

SOFAD corrected for 140k -------- 15

Increased usage by EB5 can reduce the number available by 2-4k. This is probable due to the increased I-526 receipts USCIS have received.

Corrected SOFAD for FY2013 ------ 15
Less increase in EB5 approvals -- (3)

SOFAD corrected for EB5 usage --- 12

EB1, EB2-WW and EB4 use are the variable for FY2013.

I don't see any evidence that EB1 approvals will decline. The underlying backlog was increased by 10k in FY2011 due to low approvals (the I-140 numbers and denial ratios should have given 35-36k) and appears to have been left at that level during FY2012. However, there haven't been any published I-140 figures for EB1 for a considerable time, but it seems relatively unlikely that the annual numbers have declined.

There is a chance that EB2-WW will use some of the available spillover due to the backlog that has built up.

On the other hand, USCIS may just continue with a higher backlog for EB2-WW, as they appear to have done for EB1.

Until retrogression, EB2-WW did look on course to use close to their full allocation.

Eventually, the PERM data suggests that EB2-WW approvals should fall (unless they have abandoned EB3 altogether). The middle ground is to say that EB2-WW will neither use or contribute spillover in FY2013.

Currently, I have no idea about EB4. If EB4 is underused in FY2012, as it was in FY2011, then it should be considered a factor for FY2013 spillover. Untill then, it is "one off" for calculation purposes in my eyes.

[bvsamrat]

The movement would be anyway from December 2007 to September 2008.
It could be dragged down or up due to variable factors at that time



Spec - I need to do some work before I say I disagee or agree w your numbers. My gut feel is you may be understating sofad for 2012. For 2013 I have suggestion though purely from a conceptual perspective as folllows:

If EB2IC received X sofad and EB2ROW accumulated "incremental" Y backlog in 2012. Then in 2013 everything else being the same EB2IC should expect to see (X - 2Y) sofad assuming DOS/USCIS is not sacrificing or starving EB2ROW as they did in 2012.

[Spectator]

Spec - I need to do some work before I say I disagee or agree w your numbers. My gut feel is you may be understating sofad for 2012. For 2013 I have suggestion though purely from a conceptual perspective as folllows:

If EB2IC received X sofad and EB2ROW accumulated "incremental" Y backlog in 2012. Then in 2013 everything else being the same EB2IC should expect to see (X - 2Y) sofad assuming DOS/USCIS is not sacrificing or starving EB2ROW as they did in 2012.Q,

Thanks for the reply.

I agree that the SOFAD number is still up in the air, within certain bounds. I needed to use a figure and I understand it is lower than you think it probably is.

I also agree that in the absence of any other factors, (X - 2Y) would be correct.

Using that terminology, I am using (X - 1Y - A - B) where A is loss of extra visas as a result of 145k to EB in FY2012 and B is the loss of visas due to increased EB5 usage in FY2013. I have discussed why I haven't taken account of a further loss of 1Y. TBH, the figures become too awful to imagine if I do that.

I look forward to your further thoughts when you have had time to think about it.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Excellent point on 5K. So taking that into account ...

My first cut understanding is that in 2012 EB2IC received about 31K total visas. Of which 8K they received in a non-secular manner by starving EB2ROW. So in 2013 we should expect to see 31K - 8K*2 - 5K = 10K.

So with that we can realistically expect 2013 to clear backlog through Feb 2008 - which means the dates will move around May 2008 at a minimum.

In reality - I think that is too harsh a calculation and we are missing something. My gut feel (SWAG if you will) is really Jun-Sep 2008. Let me gather more data points before I can speak intelligently about it.


Q,

Thanks for the reply.

I agree that the SOFAD number is still up in the air, within certain bounds. I needed to use a figure and I understand it is lower than you think it probably is.

I also agree that in the absence of any other factors, (X - 2Y) would be correct.

Using that terminology, I am using (X - 1Y - A - B) where A is loss of extra visas as a result of 145k to EB in FY2012 and B is the loss of visas due to increased EB5 usage in FY2013. I have discussed why I haven't taken account of a further loss of 1Y. TBH, the figures become too awful to imagine if I do that.

I look forward to your further thoughts when you have had time to think about it.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Spec/ Q,

Is it reasonable to assume in the vicinity of 10 K to 12 K sofad for 2013.

If so I would assume the dates should move atleast till the end of Dec07 for EB2-I end of 2013 right .
Thx


Q,

Thanks for the reply.

I agree that the SOFAD number is still up in the air, within certain bounds. I needed to use a figure and I understand it is lower than you think it probably is.

I also agree that in the absence of any other factors, (X - 2Y) would be correct.

Using that terminology, I am using (X - 1Y - A - B) where A is loss of extra visas as a result of 145k to EB in FY2012 and B is the loss of visas due to increased EB5 usage in FY2013. I have discussed why I haven't taken account of a further loss of 1Y. TBH, the figures become too awful to imagine if I do that.

I look forward to your further thoughts when you have had time to think about it.

[qesehmk]

Dec 2007 is the worst case scenario. i think spec and I agree that it could be upto Sep 2008.
Spec/ Q,

Is it reasonable to assume in the vicinity of 10 K to 12 K sofad for 2013.

If so I would assume the dates should move atleast till the end of Dec07 for EB2-I end of 2013 right .
Thx

[druvraj]

Dec 2007 is the worst case scenario. i think spec and I agree that it could be upto Sep 2008.

Q,

I also read somewhere and I wish if you could confirm that there is going to be no movement in EB2I category for the FY2013.

[GhostWriter]

Q, I think the 25K includes the initial allotment for EB2-IC. So shouldn't your calculation be 25K- 8K*2 - 5K = 4K. This is probably what Spec was scared to calculate !!

Spec, can you provide a breakdown of 25K as per your estimates (how much from different spillovers). Thanks for the detailed post.


Spec

Excellent point on 5K. So taking that into account ...

My first cut understanding is that in 2012 EB2IC received about 31K total visas. Of which 8K they received in a non-secular manner by starving EB2ROW. So in 2013 we should expect to see 31K - 8K*2 - 5K = 10K.

[Spectator]

Dec 2007 is the worst case scenario. i think spec and I agree that it could be upto Sep 2008.Q,

Sorry, but I would not agree.

Even using the current DOS Demand figures (which practically represent the lowest numbers) and ignoring any further porting numbers, then SOFAD of 12k (which is 9.2k for EB2-I) would only cover up to sometime in May 2008.

Currently DOS Demand shows about 5k EB2-I cases to the end of 2007 for EB2-I.

Once the effect of Porting and the final likely numbers (nearer the USCIS Inventory figure of 6.1k for cases before 2008 for EB2-I) are taken into account, I think a date in December 2007 would be about right for the 9.2k available to EB2-I.

EB2-C can go further than this purely on their 2.8k allocation.