EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012 [Archive] - Page 3

qesehmk

10-10-2011, 05:17 PM

Apr 2008 is on the long end of this years quota. The way DoS usually moves is a step function. Little to none till may and then huge movement for rest of the year. This year is a bit unusual because they need to take in a lot more cases. However to answer quickly - more than likely you will be counted against in 2013 quota. The exact timing could be anybody's guess but if you put a gun to my head I would say Q1-Q2 of 2013 could be it.

Thanks Q, When you say 2012 is that FY 2012 or merely calendar year 2012? What I'm asking is will I have to wait for 2013 quota before the dates progress into Apr 2008? Or will it happen in the forthcoming 3-4 months?

On a general note, it would be very helpful to capture in the beginning of the thread what the Guru's expect the movement to be each month going forward for the next 10-12 months with some explanation of the rationale behind the thinking.

For example:
Nov 2011 to March 2012 - Dates will reach March 2008 to build demand pipeline
Apr 2012 to June 2012 Dates will retrogress to somewhere between Nov 2007 to Feb 2008
July 2012 to Sep 2012 - Dates will start to move again?

Obviously the dates and predictions in my example may be completely bogus but that's where your extensive experience in analyzing the models would help and make the predictions closer to reality. Thanks!

yesman

10-10-2011, 05:43 PM

Pretty sure it won't be 2014. I think it will be Q1 or Q2 2013 but wanted a more "informed guess" based on the new developments.

There is roughly a 37K demand prior to your date. Add some 7K of porting and and we are looking at roughly 44k prior to your date. Does that not put it more in Q4 2013 (best case scenario)? My intent is clearly not to be pessimistic but to understand the movement better along with everyone here.

yesman

10-10-2011, 05:47 PM

ct06511

10-10-2011, 06:10 PM

ct06511,

1) The day your application packet received at USCIS, your PD should be current. Post mark date doesn't matter.

2) Paper clips are recommended.

Veni, thanks for the reply!

I understand that there is no clear requirement for assembling the packet. What we can do is to make it more convenient for the reviewer to find what she/he needs.

The following tip seems to be applicable to supporting documents only. For individual forms, I wonder what problem staples can cause.

"Use paperclips when attaching supporting personal documents to forms (do NOT use “ACCO” fasteners; staples are acceptable when attaching fees)."

iamsheshu

10-10-2011, 07:25 PM

Hello Folks,

Any guess when can I expect my EB2 to be current given my priority date is Oct 2008.

Thanks,
Ankur

imdeng

10-10-2011, 09:07 PM

Please see Spec's model - that will answer your question.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011

Hello Folks,

Any guess when can I expect my EB2 to be current given my priority date is Oct 2008.

Thanks,
Ankur

qblogfan

10-10-2011, 09:11 PM

I am not a guru, but I think your chance is 60%.

I think Mr.CO needs to have a buffer zone of 5k-10k at least. You should be included in this buffer zone. It's just my personal opinion for your reference.

Thanks Q, When you say 2012 is that FY 2012 or merely calendar year 2012? What I'm asking is will I have to wait for 2013 quota before the dates progress into Apr 2008? Or will it happen in the forthcoming 3-4 months?

On a general note, it would be very helpful to capture in the beginning of the thread what the Guru's expect the movement to be each month going forward for the next 10-12 months with some explanation of the rationale behind the thinking.

For example:
Nov 2011 to March 2012 - Dates will reach March 2008 to build demand pipeline
Apr 2012 to June 2012 Dates will retrogress to somewhere between Nov 2007 to Feb 2008
July 2012 to Sep 2012 - Dates will start to move again?

Obviously the dates and predictions in my example may be completely bogus but that's where your extensive experience in analyzing the models would help and make the predictions closer to reality. Thanks!

qblogfan

10-10-2011, 09:16 PM

My personal opinion is August/September/October of 2012.

Hello Folks,

Any guess when can I expect my EB2 to be current given my priority date is Oct 2008.

Thanks,
Ankur

suninphx

10-10-2011, 09:33 PM

Hi Spec,

Can you please tell me your thinking behind assumption -

Overall, this means that 68% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2007 reach the I-485 stage and 72% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2008 reach the I-485 stage.

I would think because of recession in 2008 , the number of PD2008 applications reaching I485 stage will be less than PD2007. (added fact that there is no EAD protection)

vizcard

10-10-2011, 09:55 PM

There is roughly a 37K demand prior to your date. Add some 7K of porting and and we are looking at roughly 44k prior to your date. Does that not put it more in Q4 2013 (best case scenario)? My intent is clearly not to be pessimistic but to understand the movement better along with everyone here.

True but that would be to get the GC. With CO wanting to build inventory, wouldn't the PD become current sooner? Again, I'm just talking about being to apply.

The discussions for the last couple of months have been about BTM and SFM and such. The underlying premise for these is to build inventory and not to actually give the green card in any given month.

jkrocks

10-10-2011, 10:02 PM

If CO needs to build inventory....he can move the dates to any date he wants..question..is how much does he want to build;-) I am sure it will be one heck of a ride ...for next two bulletins!..by this way this is just a guess..in college days i had this on my door "PUSH" --> Pray Untill Something Happens..I believe in PUSH;-)

iamsheshu

10-10-2011, 11:35 PM

Thanks for the info, but I didn't get it quite right. I'll check again. Appreciate your response.

Please see Spec's model - that will answer your question.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011

iamsheshu

10-10-2011, 11:37 PM

My personal opinion is August/September/October of 2012.

Thanks Pal for your quick response. Is this your assumption or based on any data that you can provide ?

qblogfan

10-10-2011, 11:46 PM

There are more than 40k demand before you, so your chance to file 485 in this round of demand build up is very small. But you should be able to file 485 in the next year's demand build up. The next demand build up may happen in the next summer or next fall. That's why I think you should be able to file 485 around August-October next year.

Again, I am not a guru, it's just my personal opinion. I don't want to mislead you with unreliable information. Please think twice if you use my info. to make future decisions.

Thanks Pal for your quick response. Is this your assumption or based on any data that you can provide ?

qblogfan

10-10-2011, 11:49 PM

My personal opinion is that his target is around 35k. In the past several years the SOFAD has been between 20k-30k except one year and I think he knows this range. Additionally he needs a buffer to make sure he will have enough demand in the spillover season and the buffer should be around 5k-10k. Not every submitted 485 can be approved by next summer, so it's critical for him to have a buffer zone to give him more space to manipulate numbers.

If CO needs to build inventory....he can move the dates to any date he wants..question..is how much does he want to build;-) I am sure it will be one heck of a ride ...for next two bulletins!..by this way this is just a guess..in college days i had this on my door "PUSH" --> Pray Untill Something Happens..I believe in PUSH;-)

qblogfan

10-10-2011, 11:54 PM

My personal opinion is that you should be able to submit 485 in the next summer or fall and get your GC in the summer of 2013.

Again, it's just my personal opinion, please consider it carefully when you make your decisions based on this info. in the future.

True but that would be to get the GC. With CO wanting to build inventory, wouldn't the PD become current sooner? Again, I'm just talking about being to apply.

The discussions for the last couple of months have been about BTM and SFM and such. The underlying premise for these is to build inventory and not to actually give the green card in any given month.

qblogfan

10-11-2011, 09:09 AM

Thanks! I also hope they can maintain the status quo on I140 backlog. The less demand from other catergories, the better for us!

You are most welcome qbf.

You deserve your upgrade, I shall never forget you.

Guru thou shall be bestowed soon at this rate!

Ideally speaking, CO should grab till 1st Feb 2008 in Dec VB and till 1st may 2008 in Jan VB and then he will have a good inventory with buffer. Let's hope for this best case.

Let's also hope that their focus on 485 inventory maintains status quo on 140 backlog. Remember sometime next year PP in EB1C is coming to spoil party a bit.

Airbender

10-11-2011, 09:28 AM

I have been a lurker but now would like to work on my own analysis.

I don't get how the calculations work here. What should be the starting point for understanding all this data ? Are there any equations that I should be looking at ?

Thanks!

girish989

10-11-2011, 09:38 AM

qblogfan

10-11-2011, 09:43 AM

Spec has prepared very nice charts and tables. Please see Facts and Data.

Hello Gurus,

Now that we know that people will get a chance to file 485 few months in advance because of all the pipe line building that CO is doing, can you guys prepare a chart with predictions of when people get to file their 485 Vs their priority date.

This will helpful for number of people who visit the forum.

Thank you all.

girish989

10-11-2011, 10:06 AM

Spec has prepared very nice charts and tables. Please see Facts and Data.

Thank you for the quick response - Semi Guru ;)

If you are referring to : http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011
I am aware of that.

However, I think Spec and Q did not consider the fact that the people might get a chance to file 485 months before they get their green card or about first quarter movements as these were the charts prepared before we knew these things.

I was wondering if there is any other chart that considers these facts.

yesman

10-11-2011, 10:21 AM

Hello Gurus,

Now that we know that people will get a chance to file 485 few months in advance because of all the pipe line building that CO is doing, can you guys prepare a chart with predictions of when people get to file their 485 Vs their priority date.

This will helpful for number of people who visit the forum.

Thank you all.

This is what I was asking yesterday. Granted this involves a lot more guesstimates, swags and gazing into the crystal balls. And who in the world can accurately predict the whims and fancies of government organizations! Nonetheless, Q, Nishanth and qblogfan responded with some ideas of what future movement could be but also with the caveat that there is no precedence for what DOS is doing this year which makes predicting the STM and BTM very difficult.

Having said that it would still be very very useful for people waiting to file 485 to have some guesstimates of "unka number kab aayega" :) Even gross estimates (not to the granularity of Spec's work) would help!

vchirakala

10-11-2011, 10:22 AM

qesehmk

10-11-2011, 10:25 AM

Just subtract 6-9 months from the other chart. That is your 485 filing chart. 6-9 months is what EB2IC will take minimum to process.

EB2ROW does take average much less than that. But I would tend to think for EB2IC it should be average 6-9 months.

Hello Gurus,

Now that we know that people will get a chance to file 485 few months in advance because of all the pipe line building that CO is doing, can you guys prepare a chart with predictions of when people get to file their 485 Vs their priority date.

This will helpful for number of people who visit the forum.

Thank you all.

yesman

10-11-2011, 10:26 AM

Guru's

Thank you very much for all the work you guys are doing. I really appreciate the hard work you guys are putting in. My PD is April 18 2008. What are the chances I have for filing 485 in another 3 -4 months. Please let me know.

My PD is 04/03/08 and the answers I've gotten pretty much apply to you. Q. Nishanth, qblogfan all have chimed in that I have a pretty good chance (someone said 60%) of fliling in Q1 or Q2. If we miss that target date, then additional movement is possible in Q4 is DOS realizes that they have available numbers. If we miss that as well, then we must be covered by any queue buildup that is done for FY 2013 which will happen in Q1 2013 (months of Oct, Nov, Dec 2012). Hope that helps!

vchirakala

10-11-2011, 10:44 AM

Freshman,

So that must be VB of Dec and Jan.

regards
venkat

swagsur

10-11-2011, 12:16 PM

Great resources in this site...any how its difficult to predict uscis mind...everybody thought dates will move max dec'2006 to feb'2007 last year and after thatdates will start moving after in June 2012.
After reading some posts, guru's were reasonable in predicting dates, but i feel Q's prediction was far more realistic...

swagsur

10-11-2011, 12:18 PM

wow.. looks like Nishant is the man in focus for next bulletin, best of luck for you and others...

TeddyKoochu

10-11-2011, 12:26 PM

Friends here is what I feel. The current inventory after the Nov bulletin is ~ 20K. If we assume 5-6K porting then there is 5K additional demand to take. This way everyone in 2007 will get a chance to file for 485, I believe this movement should happen in the next bulletin itself as the dates cannot be sustained at this level. Now how far the dates can move in 2008 is simply going to be based on what kind of buffer over 30K is required so that area is currently in the luck zone (All Q1 2008 folks require a little bit of luck). I believe the next bulletin PD will be set at 01-JAN-2008 (Realistically); I would hope its better so that more people in 2008 can file for 485 this year. Next bulletin may well be the final forward movement for intake this year i.e. prior to Sep 2012.

vchirakala

10-11-2011, 12:34 PM

Hi Teddy,

When you say "Next bulletin may well be the final forward movement for intake this year i.e. prior to Sep 2012." did you mean Jan VB ? or Dec VB ?

regards
vchirakala

grnwtg

10-11-2011, 12:35 PM

spec's link tells us that it is around 20k with 3.5k porting(with 8k as base inventory left in 2011)... now that inventory might be less than 8k for 2011 (totally guess) do you think any external factor we don't know might increase this number?

Friends here is what I feel. The current inventory after the Nov bulletin is ~ 20K. If we assume 5-6K porting then there is 5K additional demand to take. This way everyone in 2007 will get a chance to file for 485, I believe this movement should happen in the next bulletin itself as the dates cannot be sustained at this level. Now how far the dates can move in 2008 is simply going to be based on what kind of buffer over 30K is required so that area is currently in the luck zone (All Q1 2008 folks require a little bit of luck). I believe the next bulletin PD will be set at 01-JAN-2008 (Realistically); I would hope its better so that more people in 2008 can file for 485 this year. Next bulletin may well be the final forward movement for intake this year i.e. prior to Sep 2012.

tanu_75

10-11-2011, 12:38 PM

TeddyKoochu

10-11-2011, 12:46 PM

Hi Teddy,

When you say "Next bulletin may well be the final forward movement for intake this year i.e. prior to Sep 2012." did you mean Jan VB ? or Dec VB ?

regards
vchirakala

I mean the Dec VB, they have to retrogress the dates back even if there is quarterly spillover sooner so next month maybe the final one.

TeddyKoochu

10-11-2011, 12:50 PM

spec's link tells us that it is around 20k with 3.5k porting(with 8k as base inventory left in 2011)... now that inventory might be less than 8k for 2011 (totally guess) do you think any external factor we don't know might increase this number?

I believe there was definitely some issue with the last demand data. Here is a rough calculation a) 8k Preadjudicated b) 3.5K PWMB added by Oct VB c) 1.5K PWMB + 7K new demand aded by Nov Bulletin. This makes it closer to 20K. All approvals now are coming by the 2012 cap so any demand data reduction we must attribute now to the current yars cap.

TeddyKoochu

10-11-2011, 12:52 PM

That sucks to hear. But Teddy, are you discounting the 6k annual quota for EB2IC? If not, then that's a flaw and you need to add that. If spillover is 30k, then alongwith 6k annual EB2IC, in FY 2012, EB2IC can get a total of around 36k, which will further the dates perhaps by 2-3 months.

By definition SOFAD means all Cap numbers, last year’s SOFAD not spillover was guesstimated at 30K. My prediction is a little conservative when compared with other gurus. I hope for the best for all Q1 2008 folks, I sincerely hope that the dates go that far but numerically it requires some luck.

suninphx

10-11-2011, 12:56 PM

TeddyKoochu

10-11-2011, 01:11 PM

So this is based on assumption that current visa's for Oct bulletin are being issued from FY2012 quota- is that correct? Because I believe there is no confirmation on that yet!

Yes this my assumption, I maybe wrong on that, however since the agencies announced in Sep that the numbers are over, I would be inclined to believe that everything post October is from the 2012 cap.

cbpds1

10-11-2011, 01:26 PM

Assuming there is no porting taken into account during the 485 build up, and the buffer planned is 30k.

Since 20k have been used till 11/01/2007, considering a 30k build up, that leaves us with 10k.

Using Spec's chart (no porting),another 10k will take us to 03/15/2008

Am I missing something?

I believe there was definitely some issue with the last demand data. Here is a rough calculation a) 8k Preadjudicated b) 3.5K PWMB added by Oct VB c) 1.5K PWMB + 7K new demand aded by Nov Bulletin. This makes it closer to 20K. All approvals now are coming by the 2012 cap so any demand data reduction we must attribute now to the current yars cap.

TeddyKoochu

10-11-2011, 01:40 PM

Assuming there is no porting taken into account during the 485 build up, and the buffer planned is 30k.

Since 20k have been used till 11/01/2007, considering a 30k build up, that leaves us with 10k.

Using Spec's chart (no porting),another 10k will take us to 03/15/2008

Am I missing something?

No porting definitely gives a much better result. If you look at the chart with higher end porting the demand till Dec 2011 is 26515. Having some buffer on the conservative side I believe that the end of 2007 is a realistic expectation. Q1 2008 some point is a possibility, we have to all pray for the best.

01-DEC-2007 - 100%
01-JAN-2008- 75% (This is what Iam projecting)
01-FEB-2008 - 30%
01-MAR-2008 - 10%

Most of the times the date movements have been lesser than our expectations so its best to be bit conservative and be happy if the dates moves better than expected.

vchirakala

10-11-2011, 01:47 PM

Hi Teddy,

I think the dates should be 01-Jan-2008 , 01-Feb-2008 and 01-Mar-2008

No porting definitely gives a much better result. If you look at the chart with higher end porting the demand till Dec 2011 is 26515. Having some buffer on the conservative side I believe that the end of 2007 is a realistic expectation. Q1 2008 some point is a possibility, we have to all pray for the best.

01-DEC-2007 - 100%
01-JAN-2007 - 75% (This is what Iam projecting)
01-FEB-2007 - 30%
01-MAR-2007 - 10%

Most of the times the date movements have been lesser than our expectations so its best to be bit conservative and be happy if the dates moves better than expected.

gcoracle

10-11-2011, 01:50 PM

Gurus, beginning of this month I relocated to Maryland (H1B extension filed for MD) as my PERM was filed in Maryland. My wife who is on her own H1B (but no GC process was initiated by her employer) is currently in Connecticut. I am traveling to CT every 2 weeks and hope this pain will be over once we get our EAD's and my wife can find a job in MD. Now when we file our 485's do we enter our corresponding addresses in MD and CT? Could there be a chance of RFE?

TeddyKoochu

10-11-2011, 01:53 PM

Hi Teddy,

I think the dates should be 01-Jan-2008 , 01-Feb-2008 and 01-Mar-2008

Thanks for pointing out; I just corrected it, apologies for the confusion.

qblogfan

10-11-2011, 01:53 PM

I agree with 80% of your idea, but if they only get 30k demand, can they approve all of them? I think at least 10-20 percent will be delayed for all kinds of reasons. I would say 35k demand is a safer number. I think he won't take any chance to waste visa numbers when he builds up the demand. The other thing is that according to Spec's analysis it should be around 17k demand before Nov.1. I am more optimistic than you. I think PD April 2008 has a good chance to submit 485 in this winter. Also Mr.Co may not consider porting for demand build up process because porting can vary greatly. Again I have limited knowledge, so my prediction is less reliable.

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

Friends here is what I feel. The current inventory after the Nov bulletin is ~ 20K. If we assume 5-6K porting then there is 5K additional demand to take. This way everyone in 2007 will get a chance to file for 485, I believe this movement should happen in the next bulletin itself as the dates cannot be sustained at this level. Now how far the dates can move in 2008 is simply going to be based on what kind of buffer over 30K is required so that area is currently in the luck zone (All Q1 2008 folks require a little bit of luck). I believe the next bulletin PD will be set at 01-JAN-2008 (Realistically); I would hope its better so that more people in 2008 can file for 485 this year. Next bulletin may well be the final forward movement for intake this year i.e. prior to Sep 2012.

cbpds1

10-11-2011, 02:03 PM

Even with 6k porting
26,515 points to 01-jan-08
30,251 points to 15-feb-08

So do you think this changes ur perspective? :)

No porting definitely gives a much better result. If you look at the chart with higher end porting the demand till Dec 2011 is 26515. Having some buffer on the conservative side I believe that the end of 2007 is a realistic expectation. Q1 2008 some point is a possibility, we have to all pray for the best.

01-DEC-2008 - 100%
01-JAN-2008- 75% (This is what Iam projecting)
01-FEB-2008 - 30%
01-MAR-2008 - 10%

Most of the times the date movements have been lesser than our expectations so its best to be bit conservative and be happy if the dates moves better than expected.

qblogfan

10-11-2011, 02:18 PM

druvraj

10-11-2011, 02:18 PM

I agree with 80% of your idea, but if they only get 30k demand, can they approve all of them? I think at least 10-20 percent will be delayed for all kinds of reasons. I would say 35k demand is a safer number. I think he won't take any chance to waste visa numbers when he builds up the demand. The other thing is that according to Spec's analysis it should be around 17k demand before Nov.1. I am more optimistic than you. I think PD April 2008 has a good chance to submit 485 in this winter. Also Mr.Co may not consider porting for demand build up process because porting can vary greatly. Again I have limited knowledge, so my prediction is less reliable.

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

qblogfan I agree that the buffer should be at least 30-35K. Teddy what according to you should the buffer be?
qblogfan I hope you are able to file your 485 get AP and travel to china and when you do that let us know, we can all then share your happiness.

Spectator

10-11-2011, 02:36 PM

Mr.CO has to have some demand in the beginning of the next Fiscal Year. If he gets close numbers, it will be more trouble for him. Let's say, he gets 30k demand and the next year's SOFAD is 30k, if he can approve all the 30k demand (I think at least 10% won't be approved), then he will have zero demand in the next October, then he will get into trouble to manipulate numbers. I think he won't cut it sharp, he may have some buffer for his own flexibility.qblogfan,

Yes CO needs some demand at the beginning of the year, but he doesn't want too much.

If there are too many pre-adjudicated cases going into next year, it potentially hampers him moving the dates further forward early in the year, as he has done in this one. That is not good, because it jeopardizes the time lines to build the approvable pipeline in FY2013.

A lower amount is helpful to him to move the dates a long way, as he knows that the new applications will take some time to become documentarily qualified. That then gives some flexibility in operating quarterly spillover if he wants to.

It is a balancing act. One way around that is to make a final move in COD very late this year, knowing they can't use visas from this year's allocation and that they won't become demand in the first few in the new FY.

grnwtg

10-11-2011, 03:01 PM

I agree with you qblogfan, we already got november visa bulletin, if they are not going to have pipeline of 30-35k in coming 2 visa bulletins, there is no way for USCIS to go through around 10k applications ( applications after priority date november 2007) by next July bulletin(2012).
It will be definetly inefficiency/stupidity on the part of uscis if they dont want to take atleast 30k application by Feb 2012 visa bulletin.
If they dont move dates by feb'12 visa bulletin then its feast for eb3 Row candidates,

This is just my take

Thank you for your wishes.

I really want to get an AP in this winter because I really want to visit my parents. I haven't been home for three years!

Maybe my PD makes me biased when looking at the future movement, but I do believe folks before April 2008 should have a good chance!

Let's see what will happen after 28 days. Best luck to all of us!

cbpds1

10-11-2011, 03:02 PM

With due respect I guess one's perspective is more aligned to getting GC or getting EAD, its human nature indeed !!

qblogfan/grnwtg says CO must have more buffer = more EAD's
Spec says quarterly spillover is an important criterion=more GC's earlier
Teddy says Dec 31st,2007 maybe into Jan=more GC's and some EAD's
cbpds1 trying to move the logic towards 01-feb-2008 :)

just summarizing !!

qblogfan,

Yes CO needs some demand at the beginning of the year, but he doesn't want too much.

If there are too many pre-adjudicated cases going into next year, it potentially hampers him moving the dates further forward early in the year, as he has done in this one. That is not good, because it jeopardizes the time lines to build the approvable pipeline in FY2013.

A lower amount is helpful to him to move the dates a long way, as he knows that the new applications will take some time to become documentarily qualified. That then gives some flexibility in operating quarterly spillover if he wants to.

It is a balancing act. One way around that is to make a final move in COD very late this year, knowing they can't use visas from this year's allocation and that they won't become demand in the first few in the new FY.

suninphx

10-11-2011, 03:06 PM

qblogfan,

Yes CO needs some demand at the beginning of the year, but he doesn't want too much.

If there are too many pre-adjudicated cases going into next year, it potentially hampers him moving the dates further forward early in the year, as he has done in this one. That is not good, because it jeopardizes the time lines to build the approvable pipeline in FY2013.

A lower amount is helpful to him to move the dates a long way, as he knows that the new applications will take some time to become documentarily qualified. That then gives some flexibility in operating quarterly spillover if he wants to.

It is a balancing act. One way around that is to make a final move in COD very late this year, knowing they can't use visas from this year's allocation and that they won't become demand in the first few in the new FY.

Assuming CO is ok with ~8000 preadj. demand going into next year...(same as current year)... dates reaching Apr/May 08 is still possible.

qblogfan

10-11-2011, 03:14 PM

Yes, that's what I think. 5k-10k buffer does not stop him from moving PD in the next FY. This year we had 8k in the beginning and it didn't stop him from moving PDs in big steps.

Another thing is that he stated in the last VB: more significant movement is expected, although there is some possibility of stop or retrogression. From this tone, I am thinking he will move VB even further than our analysis results.

Just my two cents. Maybe I am too opitimistic.

Assuming CO is ok with ~8000 preadj. demand going into next year...(same as current year)... dates reaching Apr/May 08 is still possible.

grnwtg

10-11-2011, 03:20 PM

if CO thinks in current way ( we are seeing that there are some approvals even in current years quota), if CO wants this trend, he can even move dates to May'08 by June'12 visa bulletin.)
what ever it is, i believe CO is pulling googli every time we predict some thing

Hopefully he goes by words in visa bulletin that we might expect significant moves, atleast by June visa bulletin.

Yes, that's what I think. 5k-10k buffer does not stop him from moving PD in the next FY. This year we had 8k in the beginning and it didn't stop him from moving PDs in big steps.

Another thing is that he stated in the last VB: more significant movement is expected, although there is some possibility of stop or retrogression. From this tone, I am thinking he will move VB even further than our analysis results.

Just my two cents. Maybe I am too opitimistic.

Spectator

10-11-2011, 03:26 PM

Assuming CO is ok with ~8000 preadj. demand going into next year...(same as current year)... dates reaching Apr/May 08 is still possible.That's a fair point, but also a big assumption.

The first movement was not the whole 8k and the second movement only brought in the remainder of those 8k of pre-adjudicated cases.

It also might have been a special case, because it was the first movement beyond the backlog and he did say it was purely to gauge demand. That won't really be the case next year, or this year when he gets an idea of the numbers. That's why a disappointing Dec VB can't be ruled out. Waiting for one month will allow CO to assess the numbers generated by the November VB, before setting the January one.

In addition, CO didn't plan to have 8k left. He stated that he had intended to move EB2-IC to at least July 1, 2007 before he heard about the increased demand from EB1/EB2-non IC.

I am not particularly disagreeing when we are talking in the 5-10k range, but I did want add a slight note of caution.

I am not convinced he will ignore Porting number either. They take up real visa numbers. If he discounts them, then he would have to use a conservative number, because he knows they exist. If they were as high as 5k, that becomes a significant number.

I'll let you return to normal service. :D

familyguy

10-11-2011, 03:29 PM

From Oct 2007 to Mar 2008 it was very difficult to file cases in EB2... did experts consider this scenario while calculating eb2/eb3 percentage from Perm data? I think number of EB2's from Oct 2007 to Mar 2008 is less compared to pre Oct/2007.

I know few of my friends who applied in EB3 as EB2 was very tough during that time...

grnwtg

10-11-2011, 03:42 PM

Thats true but here we are purely going by both numbers and assumptions which many us agreed previously
Data is calculated by our Gurus at
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA-(READ-ONLY)

Most of us agree that dates might not move beyond May'2008. whole discussion is for time period between January'08 and April'07 and on an average I guess there will be around 1500 to 2000 aplications per month, so right now we are debating about 6000 to 8000 applications ( which is 3000 to 4000 perms )

From Oct 2007 to Mar 2008 it was very difficult to file cases in EB2... did experts consider this scenario while calculating eb2/eb3 percentage from Perm data? I think number of EB2's from Oct 2007 to Mar 2008 is less compared to pre Oct/2007.

I know few of my friends who applied in EB3 as EB2 was very tough during that time...

qblogfan

10-11-2011, 03:49 PM

I agree with you. We need to be prepared for the worst senario.

Frankly speaking, Mr.Co always does things to our surprise.

Anything can happen in the next few months. The only thing we can do is to pray for the best!

We have suffered too much from this long wait while the ROW EB2 can get GC in several months.

It's a f*** unfair system!

That's a fair point, but also a big assumption.

The first movement was not the whole 8k and the second movement only brought in the remainder of those 8k of pre-adjudicated cases.

It also might have been a special case, because it was the first movement beyond the backlog and he did say it was purely to gauge demand. That won't really be the case next year, or this year when he gets an idea of the numbers. That's why a disappointing Dec VB can't be ruled out. Waiting for one month will allow CO to assess the numbers generated by the November VB, before setting the January one.

In addition, CO didn't plan to have 8k left. He stated that he had intended to move EB2-IC to at least July 1, 2007 before he heard about the increased demand from EB1/EB2-non IC.

I am not particularly disagreeing when we are talking in the 5-10k range, but I did want add a slight note of caution.

I am not convinced he will ignore Porting number either. They take up real visa numbers. If he discounts them, then he would have to use a conservative number, because he knows they exist. If they were as high as 5k, that becomes a significant number.

I'll let you return to normal service. :D

suninphx

10-11-2011, 03:51 PM

That's a fair point, but also a big assumption.

The first movement was not the whole 8k and the second movement only brought in the remainder of those 8k of pre-adjudicated cases.

It also might have been a special case, because it was the first movement beyond the backlog and he did say it was purely to gauge demand. That won't really be the case next year, or this year when he gets an idea of the numbers. That's why a disappointing Dec VB can't be ruled out. Waiting for one month will allow CO to assess the numbers generated by the November VB, before setting the January one.

In addition, CO didn't plan to have 8k left. He stated that he had intended to move EB2-IC to at least July 1, 2007 before he heard about the increased demand from EB1/EB2-non IC.

I am not particularly disagreeing when we are talking in the 5-10k range, but I did want add a slight note of caution.

I am not convinced he will ignore Porting number either. They take up real visa numbers. If he discounts them, then he would have to use a conservative number, because he knows they exist. If they were as high as 5k, that becomes a significant number.

I'll let you return to normal service. :D

Spec,

I still believe that there is some unknowns in terms of 'what was real pending number' at end of last FY... None of the 'known rules' are justifying the recent movements. I kind of inclined towards thought that some sub clause has been discovered to facilitate use last years quota into this year.
Coming towards porting - I am not discounting portings at all and even if we take into consideration number as high as ~5000 , I think case for movement till Apr/May 2008 stands.
Also, i am not sure why CO will not need to guage the demand next year? Did not get what you meant there. It all boils down to 'how much is too much' from CO's perspective.

suninphx

10-11-2011, 03:53 PM

chikitsak

10-11-2011, 04:05 PM

I agree with the Gurus that Feb 08 is on the cards and that it may be in spurts and stops. For all the folks in Nov 07 to Feb 08 range, I would say, please do not be disappointed if the Dec VB does not take you there. I hope it does, but they could slow down the forward movement as well. In any case, It is very likely that the dates will advance to Feb 2008 by Feb 2012.

If the dates advance quickly in the next month or 2, there is a higher likelihood that after accepting the intake, they (CO) will retrogress EB2 IC to Jul/Aug 2007 and then again advance starting in May 2012.

In any case, I see the date advancing to 01 Jan 08 within the next 2 Visa Bulletins.

March 08 will either just make or just miss it in 2012. I hope they make it.

immi2910

10-11-2011, 07:18 PM

Pedro Gonzales

10-11-2011, 07:31 PM

SOFAD & PORTING:

The starting point for any analysis are PERM applications (as done in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011).

Any person porting from EB3 to EB2 will have to file for PERM and would be reflected in PERM demand. So if we assume 70% (or any other %age) are EB2 applicants then that includes people who have ported.

Thus, we should not apply another factor for porting. Therefore, only column with no porting in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011 should be considered.

If we look at any other column then we are double counting Porting cases. Am I missing something?

yes, you're missing this: the porter's new PERM only comes into play in 2011 PERM numbers, not the older 2007 or 2008 PERM figures. Their original PERM was undoubtedly in 2007 or 2008, but at that time they were in the other 30%. In other words, that 70% is people who originally filed under EB2. If you want to include the porters, that number would go up to 75% or so.

nishant2200

10-11-2011, 07:40 PM

wow.. looks like Nishant is the man in focus for next bulletin, best of luck for you and others...

thank you very much. hope a lot of people get in. this VB might be the last to show movement for a while.

qblogfan

10-11-2011, 07:43 PM

Porting was already there in 2007 and 2008. One of my Indian coworker had PD 2003 EB3 and he did his EB2 PERM in 2005 and got GC in 2007. He dumped my evil company right after getting GC! Good for him! I think some of the 2007 and 2008 PERM are porting EB3-EB2 cases. Many of them have been approved from 2007-2011. so they should be excluded from the total demand. I think at least 10% of them are porting PERMs.

yes, you're missing this: the porter's new PERM only comes into play in 2011 PERM numbers, not the older 2007 or 2008 PERM figures. Their original PERM was undoubtedly in 2007 or 2008, but at that time they were in the other 30%. In other words, that 70% is people who originally filed under EB2. If you want to include the porters, that number would go up to 75% or so.

nishant2200

10-11-2011, 07:45 PM

Thanks for pointing out; I just corrected it, apologies for the confusion.

Teddy, the first one is still wrong I think. You mean to say 1st Dec 2007 as 100%, not 1st Dec 2008.

:)

Pedro Gonzales

10-11-2011, 07:49 PM

Porting was already there in 2007 and 2008. One of my Indian coworker had PD 2003 EB3 and he did his EB2 PERM in 2005 and got GC in 2007. He dumped my evil company right after getting GC! Good for him! I think some of the 2007 and 2008 PERM are porting EB3-EB2 cases. Many of them have been approved from 2007-2011. so they should be excluded from the total demand. I think at least 10% of them are porting PERMs.

good point. Some of the 70% EB2 PERM from 2007/2008 have already received their GCs and moved out of the queue. So, we need to look only at the incremental porters, i.e., porters from 2010/11 (original dates in 2007/8) - porters from 2007/08 (original dates in 2002/2003). Not sure that there is a way to estimate that amount.

natvyas

10-11-2011, 08:05 PM

What's the status of approvals on trackitt

TeddyKoochu

10-11-2011, 08:21 PM

Teddy, the first one is still wrong I think. You mean to say 1st Dec 2007 as 100%, not 1st Dec 2008.

:)

Nishant, I finally corrected it. All the best to you, you should be surely current in the Dec VB.

sandeep11

10-11-2011, 09:01 PM

Teddy......

My heart just sank looking at this post...:(... just kidding........my pd is in the first week of Dec 2007....hope it doesn't stop at Dec 1st..that would be truly disappointing though.....i understand we can only hope for the best

I wish the dates keep moving and most of us get to file 485....good luck everyone....

CM from 'us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com' updated his analysis for Nov VB. His analysis almost agrees with yours including numbers. According to him while we can anticipate smaller movements in Dec and Jan VBs there is a possibility that they could see no movement at all. This, he infers from the Nov VB notes for I/C EB2 that 'While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis'.

-Sandy

No porting definitely gives a much better result. If you look at the chart with higher end porting the demand till Dec 2011 is 26515. Having some buffer on the conservative side I believe that the end of 2007 is a realistic expectation. Q1 2008 some point is a possibility, we have to all pray for the best.

01-DEC-2007 - 100%
01-JAN-2008- 75% (This is what Iam projecting)
01-FEB-2008 - 30%
01-MAR-2008 - 10%

Most of the times the date movements have been lesser than our expectations so its best to be bit conservative and be happy if the dates moves better than expected.

nishant2200

10-11-2011, 09:07 PM

sandeep, he just says he expects 3 to 6 months movement in one or two steps, and although the Nov VB says movement may not be monthly norm all that, he says such movement in next Dec or Jan VB cannot be discarded.

Basically he is also not sure when it will happen, but he does think at least 3 month movement more will happen. He has put that analysis few days back on the 7th.

Teddy......

My heart just sank looking at this post...:(... just kidding........my pd is in the first week of Dec 2007....hope it doesn't stop at Dec 1st..that would be truly disappointing though.....i understand we can only hope for the best

I wish the dates keep moving and most of us get to file 485....good luck everyone....

CM from 'us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com' updated his analysis for Nov VB. His analysis almost agrees with yours including numbers. According to him while we can anticipate smaller movements in Dec and Jan VBs there is a possibility that they could see no movement at all. This, he infers from the Nov VB notes for I/C EB2 that 'While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis'.

-Sandy

nishant2200

10-11-2011, 09:23 PM

and also btw, not just because I am benefited, but it just doesn't make sense to me that he does not do any movement at all in Dec VB, and totally just waits for a month to see the actual demand generated in November. I do think he will take into account the demand generated in November to give him a fair rough idea of how much a move can get in 3.5 months. I think he did 3.5 and not 3 or 4 for a reason, that reason holds the key. He probably wanted to go to the 1st of the month's from the 15ths. One can maybe theorize on that.

I think there would be a move, albeit smaller, in Dec VB, he must have divided his move for Nov VB into two parts, one for Nov VB, and one for Dec VB, and then by the time January, CO will have a very much calculated handle on the function of date movement and demand. He might do another small move, or pause, or retro, and then do surgical moves in ending Q3 or of course Q4 to issues GCs, as well as do a move in last most VB of Q4 to start building demand for FY 2013.

The way Nov VB was pushed out, it totally is obvious there was no meaning of demand data or other stuff, it was pre-planned and just literally pushed out quickly. The demand data for Nov VB looks totally hacked. One might say what will change in demand data for Dec VB ideally, maybe a few hundred, a thousand here and there.

sandeep, he just says he expects 3 to 6 months movement in one or two steps, and although the Nov VB says movement may not be monthly norm all that, he says such movement in next Dec or Jan VB cannot be discarded.

Basically he is also not sure when it will happen, but he does think at least 3 month movement more will happen. He has put that analysis few days back on the 7th.

grnwtg

10-11-2011, 09:35 PM

Thats what i read from that person's post, if fellow Q'ers ( followers of Q's blog) agree average of 1500 to 2000 or taking 2000 count, dates might move till April'2008 to fulfil 2012 quota or chance to file EAD app.

Posts in the blog sounds similar to what we discuss here

while i am not certain that dates might move to jan/early april'08 in coming 2 bulletins, but i believe if USCIS follows rules these folks should be current by september'2012 bulletin ( not sure of getting green card though)

sandeep, he just says he expects 3 to 6 months movement in one or two steps, and although the Nov VB says movement may not be monthly norm all that, he says such movement in next Dec or Jan VB cannot be discarded.

Basically he is also not sure when it will happen, but he does think at least 3 month movement more will happen. He has put that analysis few days back on the 7th.

qblogfan

10-11-2011, 11:34 PM

I agree with you. It does not make any sense to stop movement in the next VB.

But I do suspect that the next VB will be the last one for demand building purpose.

It's just my guess and nobody knows what he will do in the next few months.

It's impossible to predict Mr.CO, the most unpredictable man on earth!

and also btw, not just because I am benefited, but it just doesn't make sense to me that he does not do any movement at all in Dec VB, and totally just waits for a month to see the actual demand generated in November. I do think he will take into account the demand generated in November to give him a fair rough idea of how much a move can get in 3.5 months. I think he did 3.5 and not 3 or 4 for a reason, that reason holds the key. He probably wanted to go to the 1st of the month's from the 15ths. One can maybe theorize on that.

I think there would be a move, albeit smaller, in Dec VB, he must have divided his move for Nov VB into two parts, one for Nov VB, and one for Dec VB, and then by the time January, CO will have a very much calculated handle on the function of date movement and demand. He might do another small move, or pause, or retro, and then do surgical moves in ending Q3 or of course Q4 to issues GCs, as well as do a move in last most VB of Q4 to start building demand for FY 2013.

The way Nov VB was pushed out, it totally is obvious there was no meaning of demand data or other stuff, it was pre-planned and just literally pushed out quickly. The demand data for Nov VB looks totally hacked. One might say what will change in demand data for Dec VB ideally, maybe a few hundred, a thousand here and there.

qblogfan

10-11-2011, 11:38 PM

I think your chance is so high that you shouldn't worry about it.

CM's blog is not reliable and we shouldn't put too much on his predictions. Frankly CM made many wrong predictions before.

Also his data looks like that he copied from this forum. I think he is a visitor of this forum.

Teddy......

My heart just sank looking at this post...:(... just kidding........my pd is in the first week of Dec 2007....hope it doesn't stop at Dec 1st..that would be truly disappointing though.....i understand we can only hope for the best

I wish the dates keep moving and most of us get to file 485....good luck everyone....

CM from 'us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com' updated his analysis for Nov VB. His analysis almost agrees with yours including numbers. According to him while we can anticipate smaller movements in Dec and Jan VBs there is a possibility that they could see no movement at all. This, he infers from the Nov VB notes for I/C EB2 that 'While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis'.

-Sandy

qesehmk

10-12-2011, 11:19 AM

THREAD IS OPEN NOW.

PLEASE FOLLOW THESE GUIDELINES. Best wishes in your GC journey!

1. Only post thoughts relating to predictions in this thread. Either contribute a thought, challenge a thought, ask a question which leads to brainstorming.
2. Before asking a question be a responsible user and do your homework. Visit other threads too to be aware and help out. 3. If you can ask a private question - please do that rather asking to everybody.
4. Use PM facility, and make friends as necessary.
5. Above all use this forum to learn about GC process rather than asking questions "when will I get my GC or EAD or AP etc".

The more we keep this thread clean the more it helps everybody to get value out of it!!

smuggymba

10-12-2011, 11:49 AM

Hi Q,
Before you delete this post, can you tell me where is the projection that you guys made based on PD', Spillover etc. Also,have you done analysis if country limit is removed? thanks.

qesehmk

10-12-2011, 12:08 PM

where is the projection that you guys made based on PD', Spillover etc. Also,have you done analysis if country limit is removed? thanks.
Usually header is where you will find latest "opinions"/ "analysis".
I haven't done analysis on "what if". Spec Teddy may have. I leave it to others to answer that.

Can we thank people here?
Yes you can thank. But you get a strike for asking a redundant question... !!!!
Think from our shoes .... this is free service we are doing here. What I said above was to ensure that things remain valuable for everybody.
Unlike other sites we do not engage in deleting what people post. Only when it is really offensive we delete something. You use your own judgement to post what YOU think is valuable to you and others.

immi2910

10-12-2011, 12:31 PM

good point. Some of the 70% EB2 PERM from 2007/2008 have already received their GCs and moved out of the queue. So, we need to look only at the incremental porters, i.e., porters from 2010/11 (original dates in 2007/8) - porters from 2007/08 (original dates in 2002/2003). Not sure that there is a way to estimate that amount.

I agree there will not be any way to estimate it. But if all things are equal then these numbers should cancel each other. In other words there are likely as many people who applied for PERM in 2007, 2008 with original (EB3) PD of 2004, 2005 as there are people who applied for PERM in 2010, 2011 with original PD of 2007, 2008.

CM has done some analysis on PERM data using prevailing wage (http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/01/when-will-i-get-my-green-card-green_20.html) to determine EB2 to EB3 split (72 to 28 for India & 46 to 54 for China). In addition he has also done analysis on India - China ratio in EB2 (on average it is 11 - 1 since 2008).

Therefore, EB2 I + EB2 C applicants / EB2-3 I + EB2-3 C applicants = 12/((11/0.72) + (1/0.46)) = 68.76% ~ 70%. I think this is a good estimate of EB2IC applicants, which coincidentally is what I used in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=10253#post10253.

Now Spectator's SOFAD & Porting thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011) assumes EB2 IC %age at 60%. Now if we can get a calculation done with EB2 IC 70% with 0 porting, then I think we will get a closer approximation of what might happen.

Spectator can you please redo No Porting column assuming 70% EB2 IC applicants focusing on 2008 and beyond (assuming everyone in 2007 gets GC in FY 2012)? I would have done it myself but since all the numbers have been turned to images I would have to start from scratch.

smuggymba

10-12-2011, 12:34 PM

Usually header is where you will find latest "opinions"/ "analysis".
I haven't done analysis on "what if". Spec Teddy may have. I leave it to others to answer that.

I saw it somewhere on this thread or maybe some other thread where you guys had projected the dates based on PD, Spillover and porting. I checked the first post and it's not there. What do you mean by header?

suninphx

10-12-2011, 01:01 PM

Hello Spec,

When you get chance can you please have look at this question? Thanks.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=10846#post10846

nishant2200

10-12-2011, 02:56 PM

folks, including gcseeker, I am convinced now that we don't need to worry so much about increased masters degree holders for SOFAD impact from EB2 ROW. thanks for your input.

qblogfan

10-12-2011, 03:20 PM

Also Chinese students in US graduate school increased 21% last year. Compared to year 2001 and 2002, the new number is about 3 times higher!

In one class I took recently, 40% of the students were Chinese and 30% were Indians. The white in my class were not happy about it.

One reason for this high number is because the US embassy relaxed the visa policy in China from 2005.

http://singularityhub.com/2011/09/13/chinese-students-are-storming-us-grad-schools-they-have-the-money-and-the-brains/

folks, including gcseeker, I am convinced now that we don't need to worry so much about increased masters degree holders for SOFAD impact from EB2 ROW. thanks for your input.

mysati

10-12-2011, 03:34 PM

Guys,

My PD is Jan-2008 and my lawyer informed me today that my PD becoming current in Nov. bulletin is highly unlikely but gave no reason. My Co. does not let us correspond freely with the lawyers so I can't find out more from them.
Could there be any insider information they might be getting or it is from their interpretation of the wordings from the current VB? I do not want to arouse speculation but was wondering if anyone heard similar stuff from their lawyers?

qblogfan

10-12-2011, 03:38 PM

I don't believe your lawyer has any insider information. I think they just want to find excuses to postpone and delay your GC application as much as they can. They know you will say goodbye to them after your GC.

Nobody knows how much VB will move next month. It's just a pure lie if your lawyer claims he has secret information from DOS.

Guys,

My PD is Jan-2008 and my lawyer informed me today that my PD becoming current in Nov. bulletin is highly unlikely but gave no reason. My Co. does not let us correspond freely with the lawyers so I can't find out more from them.
Could there be any insider information they might be getting or it is from their interpretation of the wordings from the current VB? I do not want to arouse speculation but was wondering if anyone heard similar stuff from their lawyers?

Spectator

10-12-2011, 03:43 PM

Hello Spec,

When you get chance can you please have look at this question? Thanks.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=10846#post10846Really it is already explained in the header to the Calculation.

For 2007 PD 85% of 80% = 68%
For 2008 PD 90% of 80% = 72%

where the first % is applications remaining (i.e. allowing for a drop out rate over time) and 80% is the I-140 approval rate (i.e. a 20% denial rate).

It is the cumulative effect of those 2 assumptions.

nishant2200

10-12-2011, 03:56 PM

mysati, in fact, per rdsingh79, fragomen (huge famous attorney corporation) has advised an applicant with Jan 4, 2008 to be ready with all documents in checklist, as they do expect him to be current soon.

Now that soon, is that one month or 6 months, they did not say I am guessing (rdsingh, correct me if wrong, we don't know exact wording of fragomen).

so there you have it, I would rather be ready and safe than sorry.

Guys,

My PD is Jan-2008 and my lawyer informed me today that my PD becoming current in Nov. bulletin is highly unlikely but gave no reason. My Co. does not let us correspond freely with the lawyers so I can't find out more from them.
Could there be any insider information they might be getting or it is from their interpretation of the wordings from the current VB? I do not want to arouse speculation but was wondering if anyone heard similar stuff from their lawyers?

suninphx

10-12-2011, 03:59 PM

Really it is already explained in the header to the Calculation.

For 2007 PD 85% of 80% = 68%
For 2008 PD 90% of 80% = 72%

where the first % is applications remaining (i.e. allowing for a drop out rate over time) and 80% is the I-140 approval rate (i.e. a 20% denial rate).

It is the cumulative effect of those 2 assumptions.

Spec,
I get how you calculations are done.

My question was more towards why do you think that effective % of 2007 (68) is less than effective % of 2008(72). My thinking is that dropout rate for 2008 will be more given recession and no EAD protection. May be you do not think that to be a big factor.

Thanks anyways.

nishant2200

10-12-2011, 04:07 PM

suninphx,

Spec has many times touched on this assumptions with us internally as well sometimes on the blog. We will only really be able to make the drop out factor more effective once we actually get data like demand data and pending 485 inventory report of the time period which just got current as well as some more which shall be current.

This is my thought on this.

Spec,
I get how you calculations are done.

My question was more towards why do you think that effective % of 2007 (68) is less than effective % of 2008(72). My thinking is that dropout rate for 2008 will be more given recession and no EAD protection. May be you do not think that to be a big factor.

Thanks anyways.

mysati

10-12-2011, 04:16 PM

Thank you, QBF and Nishant!

suninphx

10-12-2011, 04:18 PM

suninphx,

Spec has many times touched on this assumptions with us internally as well sometimes on the blog. We will only really be able to make the drop out factor more effective once we actually get data like demand data and pending 485 inventory report of the time period which just got current as well as some more which shall be current.

This is my thought on this.

Nishant,

Thanks for your thought. Not sure though how 'demand data and pending 485 inventory report of the time period which just got current' is going to help determine 2008 dropout factor. We need to still make assumption for that data. And my question was if we want to consider 'recession/EAD' factor or not in that assumption. (I am fine either ways but wanted to know if that has been considered).

Spectator

10-12-2011, 04:21 PM

I agree there will not be any way to estimate it. But if all things are equal then these numbers should cancel each other. In other words there are likely as many people who applied for PERM in 2007, 2008 with original (EB3) PD of 2004, 2005 as there are people who applied for PERM in 2010, 2011 with original PD of 2007, 2008.

CM has done some analysis on PERM data using prevailing wage (http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/01/when-will-i-get-my-green-card-green_20.html) to determine EB2 to EB3 split (72 to 28 for India & 46 to 54 for China). In addition he has also done analysis on India - China ratio in EB2 (on average it is 11 - 1 since 2008).

Therefore, EB2 I + EB2 C applicants / EB2-3 I + EB2-3 C applicants = 12/((11/0.72) + (1/0.46)) = 68.76% ~ 70%. I think this is a good estimate of EB2IC applicants, which coincidentally is what I used in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=10253#post10253.

Now Spectator's SOFAD & Porting thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011) assumes EB2 IC %age at 60%. Now if we can get a calculation done with EB2 IC 70% with 0 porting, then I think we will get a closer approximation of what might happen.

Spectator can you please redo No Porting column assuming 70% EB2 IC applicants focusing on 2008 and beyond (assuming everyone in 2007 gets GC in FY 2012)? I would have done it myself but since all the numbers have been turned to images I would have to start from scratch.I need to understand what you are looking for and you need to specify all the assumptions for 2007 and 2008 PDs.

4. Following ‘factors’ are assumed for the figures:
60% EB2 PERM Certifications
20% denial rate at I-140 stage
2.05 dependent ratio
85% of PD2007 applications remain and 90% of PD2008 applications remain.
Overall, this means that 68% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2007 reach the I-485 stage and 72% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2008 reach the I-485 stage.

For instance the numbers will be very different if no denial or drop out rate is factored in, so it is important to understand your questions precisely.

PS - Sorry for the inconvenience about the images - it wasn't something I wanted to do, but the data was being used without giving due credit to the site. An unfortunate side effect is that genuine people also suffer.

nishant2200

10-12-2011, 04:23 PM

well sorry I did not intend to say 2008 specifically, seems from reading ur post, you are interested in 2008 vs 2007 difference. You think 2008 will have big drop out.

I frankly can recollect various brainstorms amongst peoples, including spec, on this, and we all agreed on this concensus for now. I will let Spec reply further.

Personally I hope you are correct.

Nishant,

Thanks for your thought. Not sure though how 'demand data and pending 485 inventory report of the time period which just got current' is going to help determine 2008 dropout factor. We need to still make assumption for that data. And my question was if we want to consider 'recession/EAD' factor or not in that assumption. (I am fine either ways but wanted to know if that has been considered).

Kanmani

10-12-2011, 04:29 PM

Nishant I agree with you in this drop outs calculation.

I also had a doubt that 2008 total I485 figures should be lesser than 2006 and 2007 figures, as I had a chance to personally see how our guys were laid-off , changing jobs , multiple perms . Infact my personal calculations reflect the same scenario taken into consideration and I differ by a total of 5000 IC lesser from Spec's chart.

But at the end of the day, we know very less and as per Spec's calculation and assumption we might get a negligible dropout total , thus he omitted in his calculations.

Spectator

10-12-2011, 04:36 PM

Spec,
I get how you calculations are done.

My question was more towards why do you think that effective % of 2007 (68) is less than effective % of 2008(72). My thinking is that dropout rate for 2008 will be more given recession and no EAD protection. May be you do not think that to be a big factor.

Thanks anyways.I've always tried to make it clear that these are my assumptions and they might well be wrong, but I don't think that has been taken on board.

My thinking is that more time has passed for applicants with a 2007 PD, so there is more chance that they have had to abandon the process. Equally, the numbers for applicants with 2010 PD would be minimal.

For me, they represent a point where I become equally concerned that they are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

If no factor is applied, the numbers generated seem outrageously high. I have learnt that potential applicants are very resilient and have an almost magical way of keeping their dream alive, even through very tough times. Don't underestimate that.

Hope that helps understanding where I am coming from.

I'll say it again - this is a very good debating point. I prefer some backing for figures rather than plucking them out of thin air, but I recognize that that is virtually impossible. I would caution against just wanting the figures to be lower, rather than that truly being the case.

I welcome and encourage debate about this by everybody.

Perhaps you want to kick it off by saying what a more representative drop out rate might be for people with PDs in 2008 (and 2007, 2009 if you like). I'm happy to report back the effect.

nishant2200

10-12-2011, 04:37 PM

Kanmani, yes I am aware, you have repeatedly brainstormed on this and brought out your numbers, and consistently 5k less than the chart. I really hope your empirical experience turns out right. 5k can really make the day for almost movement of 3 months peoples.

Nishant I agree with you in this drop outs calculation.

I also had a doubt that 2008 total I485 figures should be lesser than 2006 and 2007 figures, as I had a chance to personally see how our guys were laid-off , changing jobs , multiple perms . Infact my personal calculations reflects the same scenario taken into consideration and I differ by a total of 5000 IC lesser from Spec's chart.

But at the end of the day, we know very less and as per Spec's calculation and assumption we might get a negligible dropout total , thus he omitted in his calculations.

immi2910

10-12-2011, 04:51 PM

I need to understand what you are looking for and you need to specify all the assumptions for 2007 and 2008 PDs.

For instance the numbers will be very different if no denial or drop out rate is factored in, so it is important to understand your questions precisely.

PS - Sorry for the inconvenience about the images - it wasn't something I wanted to do, but the data was being used without giving due credit to the site. An unfortunate side effect is that genuine people also suffer.

4. Following ‘factors’ are assumed for the figures:
60% EB2 PERM Certifications
20% denial rate at I-140 stage
2.05 dependent ratio
85% of PD2007 applications remain and 90% of PD2008 applications remain.
Overall, this means that 68% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2007 reach the I-485 stage and 72% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2008 reach the I-485 stage.

Spectator, I would like you to change your first assumption from 60% to 70%, which I believe is a better approximation (see my earlier post for reasons - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=11016#post11016).

Additionally, I am interested in only the 1st column (no Porting) as I believe Porting will tend to cancel out again see my earlier post.

Finally, I only need it for applicants with PD of 2008 and later as I believe everyone with PD up to 2007 will get GC in FY '12. I believe your assumption is that only 90% of 2008 applicants remain. I do not have a better estimate on that number so please use that.

suninphx

10-12-2011, 05:04 PM

I've always tried to make it clear that these are my assumptions and they might well be wrong, but I don't think that has been taken on board.

My thinking is that more time has passed for applicants with a 2007 PD, so there is more chance that they have had to abandon the process. Equally, the numbers for applicants with 2010 PD would be minimal.

For me, they represent a point where I become equally concerned that they are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

If no factor is applied, the numbers generated seem outrageously high. I have learnt that potential applicants are very resilient and have an almost magical way of keeping their dream alive, even through very tough times. Don't underestimate that.

Hope that helps understanding where I am coming from.

I'll say it again - this is a very good debating point. I prefer some backing for figures rather than plucking them out of thin air, but I recognize that that is virtually impossible. I would caution against just wanting the figures to be lower, rather than that truly being the case.

I welcome and encourage debate about this by everybody.

Perhaps you want to kick it off by saying what a more representative drop out rate might be for people with PDs in 2008 (and 2007, 2009 if you like). I'm happy to report back the effect.

Before i attempt that - what is current 'known' drop out rate?

PS: being a newbie my optimism is on much higher side. I am sure it will get a reality touch as time goes on. Please bear with me till such time. :)

Jitesh

10-12-2011, 06:05 PM

I think your wife might be working for the direct client not consulting.(or got a letter from the client with a 3 year end date of the project) in that case she can get 3 years, if there are layers, more the layer greater the RFE and bigger the problems.

I am not working for direct client - even client did not specify any end date for my project.
but I got 3 years extension based on I -140 approval.

Spectator

10-12-2011, 06:07 PM

Spectator, I would like you to change your first assumption from 60% to 70%, which I believe is a better approximation (see my earlier post for reasons - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=11016#post11016).

Additionally, I am interested in only the 1st column (no Porting) as I believe Porting will tend to cancel out again see my earlier post.

Finally, I only need it for applicants with PD of 2008 and later as I believe everyone with PD up to 2007 will get GC in FY '12. I believe your assumption is that only 90% of 2008 applicants remain. I do not have a better estimate on that number so please use that.Are those assumptions for both China and India?

If not, what do you want to assume for China?

Spectator

10-12-2011, 06:11 PM

Before i attempt that - what is current 'known' drop out rate?

PS: being a newbie my optimism is on much higher side. I am sure it will get a reality touch as time goes on. Please bear with me till such time. :)suninphx,

That's the problem - there is no known drop out rate!

Will the drop out rate be different for China vs India.

Will the drop out rate be different depending on the occupation? Probably yes, so what are the different rates and what % do they represent for Chinese and Indian applicants.

You see the problem.

suninphx

10-12-2011, 07:20 PM

suninphx,

That's the problem - there is no known drop out rate!

Will the drop out rate be different for China vs India.

Will the drop out rate be different depending on the occupation? Probably yes, so what are the different rates and what % do they represent for Chinese and Indian applicants.

You see the problem.

Thats definatly possible. Construction and Manufactring were more affected than IT , I think.
Lets not separate out IC numbers for now. We can average that out. As my first attempt, can you please run the numbers for following drop rate?
2007- 80% ( I reduced this because of double filing, labour substitution etc)
2008- 75% (Trackitt data for PD2008 shows reduction on around 12% from PERM->I140. I am adding my best guess on top of that)
2009 - 90%

I would think 65:35 ratio of eb2:eb3 is more of reality but lets go with your current assumption on that.

Thanks for your help.

GhostWriter

10-12-2011, 07:33 PM

suninphx, my priority date is end of 2009, so as much as assuming huge drop out rates for 2008 will "help" me, i don't think that is the case. I agree with Spec's assumption of people being resilient. Also the bad economy is factored in the low filings of 2009 PERM. If people were able to get GC filed in 2008 that would have to be after the managers factored in the economic environment. I know a friend who lost his job when Lehman went under, his wife lost her job in software one month after that but they survived.
So i will hope for being positively surprised by that not being the case but can't think of reasons why people will not take salary cuts or relocate to a lesser desired city and preserve the priority date.

I've always tried to make it clear that these are my assumptions and they might well be wrong, but I don't think that has been taken on board.

My thinking is that more time has passed for applicants with a 2007 PD, so there is more chance that they have had to abandon the process. Equally, the numbers for applicants with 2010 PD would be minimal.

For me, they represent a point where I become equally concerned that they are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

If no factor is applied, the numbers generated seem outrageously high. I have learnt that potential applicants are very resilient and have an almost magical way of keeping their dream alive, even through very tough times. Don't underestimate that.

Hope that helps understanding where I am coming from.

I'll say it again - this is a very good debating point. I prefer some backing for figures rather than plucking them out of thin air, but I recognize that that is virtually impossible. I would caution against just wanting the figures to be lower, rather than that truly being the case.

I welcome and encourage debate about this by everybody.

Perhaps you want to kick it off by saying what a more representative drop out rate might be for people with PDs in 2008 (and 2007, 2009 if you like). I'm happy to report back the effect.

immi2910

10-12-2011, 07:36 PM

Are those assumptions for both China and India?

If not, what do you want to assume for China?

It is for India and China. I am repeating the relevant portion of my calculation:

CM has done some analysis on PERM data using prevailing wage (http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-green_20.html) to determine EB2 to EB3 split (72 to 28 for India & 46 to 54 for China). In addition he has also done analysis on India - China ratio in EB2 (on average it is 11 - 1 since 2008).

Therefore, EB2 I + EB2 C applicants / EB2-3 I + EB2-3 C applicants = 12/((11/0.72) + (1/0.46)) = 68.76% ~ 70%. I think this is a good estimate of EB2IC applicants

immi2910

10-12-2011, 07:38 PM

I would think 65:35 ratio of eb2:eb3 is more of reality but lets go with your current assumption on that.

Thanks for your help.

I think it is more like 70:30. I have explained my rationale in my other posts.

suninphx

10-12-2011, 07:49 PM

qblogfan

10-12-2011, 08:06 PM

In my opinion, 2008 has a higher drop out rate. People were hopless after missing 2007 Fiasco. Many of my friends gave up and returned home.

The second thing is that in 2008 many cases were audited and some of them were audited for more than 2 years. Many folks changed jobs in this process and filed PERMs with new employers.

I think many of the 2008 PERMs are not active any more. The drop out rate is much higher than 2007 for sure.

The 2007 folks have much higher security after getting EAD/AP, so very few of them gave up their GC applications. For the 2008 folks, most of them suffered much more and had no security at all and drop out ratio is way higher.

well sorry I did not intend to say 2008 specifically, seems from reading ur post, you are interested in 2008 vs 2007 difference. You think 2008 will have big drop out.

I frankly can recollect various brainstorms amongst peoples, including spec, on this, and we all agreed on this concensus for now. I will let Spec reply further.

Personally I hope you are correct.

rahul2011

10-12-2011, 08:32 PM

i agree with deepak. Even mine will show as Certified-Expired and , PD is Nov 15 , 2007 and My 140 got approved. i even got 3 years h1 extension based on I 140.

nishant2200

10-12-2011, 09:12 PM

i agree with deepak. Even mine will show as Certified-Expired and , PD is Nov 15 , 2007 and My 140 got approved. i even got 3 years h1 extension based on I 140.

that is fine. both certified and certified expired, we have to count as contributors to PERM. the labors may show certified expired status 180 days after certification.

Spectator

10-12-2011, 09:13 PM

Thats definatly possible. Construction and Manufactring were more affected than IT , I think.
Lets not separate out IC numbers for now. We can average that out. As my first attempt, can you please run the numbers for following drop rate?
2007- 80% ( I reduced this because of double filing, labour substitution etc)
2008- 75% (Trackitt data for PD2008 shows reduction on around 12% from PERM->I140. I am adding my best guess on top of that)
2009 - 90%

I would think 65:35 ratio of eb2:eb3 is more of reality but lets go with your current assumption on that.

Thanks for your help.I've gone with your preferred 65% EB2 split for your calculation.

Comparison with my figures shown below based on 25k SOFAD a year and 30k with the 5k buffer. Compared to my 68/72% for 2007/8, you would be 64/60% (but of a slightly higher number).
181

suninphx

10-12-2011, 09:21 PM

I've gone with your preferred 65% EB2 split for your calculation.

Comparison with my figures shown below based on 25k SOFAD a year and 30k with the 5k buffer. Compared to my 68/72% for 2007/8, you would be 64/60% (but of a slightly higher number).
173

Thanks Spec! The results are very interesting! :)

Spectator

10-12-2011, 09:38 PM

Thanks Spec! The results are very interesting! :)suninphx,

I hope the presentation gave you what you wanted, or at least you can extract sufficient information to suit your purpose. It was difficult to know how to do it fairly concisely. I don't want to post the full detail. I t will become confusing and it too much for most people to take in.

PS to Kanmani,

I have restored your post, which I noticed you very considerately had deleted. Thanks for the thanks!
We all like that from time to time. Don't worry too much about posting them occasionally - I can remove then later!

qblogfan

10-12-2011, 09:54 PM

Spec, thanks for your hard work. I think it is great to have different senarios.

It looks like this year's range should be 11/22/2007 to 5/1/2008.

The worst senario is 11/22/2007 and the best senario is 5/1/2008.

Personally I think a middle point might be the final movement.

I've gone with your preferred 65% EB2 split for your calculation.

Comparison with my figures shown below based on 25k SOFAD a year and 30k with the 5k buffer. Compared to my 68/72% for 2007/8, you would be 64/60% (but of a slightly higher number).
174
Note - Porting Columns for FY2013 assume 3,500 Porting in FY2012.

The No Porting Column is No Porting in either FY.

Edit - The No Porting Column for FY2013 also assumes 3,500 in FY2012. I don't think this is what you want. A replacement result will appear shortly. Sorry about that.

meetasn

10-12-2011, 09:58 PM

I am new to this forum, but following from the past 4 months and finally joined
Congrats for all those got GC's and PD date current.

EB2-I PD July 11 2007, Nebraska got approval today. It will keep the hope for future PD movement.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/838953013/10-12-11-485-approvals/page/last_page

suninphx

10-12-2011, 09:59 PM

suninphx,

I hope the presentation gave you what you wanted, or at least you can extract sufficient information to suit your purpose. It was difficult to know how to do it fairly concisely. I don't want to post the full detail. I t will become confusing and it too much for most people to take in.

PS to Kanmani,

I have restored your post, which I noticed you very considerately had deleted. Thanks for the thanks!
We all like that from time to time. Don't worry too much about posting them occasionally - I can remove then later!

Spec,
Yes -this gives me a very precise range using which I can build my scenarios. Thanks again for your help.

qblogfan

10-12-2011, 10:00 PM

A Chinese EB2 July 13 2007 also got approved today. Totally there are around 40 approvals of EB2-C on mitbbs.

I think they are approving the majority of EB2 cases and it will be very interesting when they publish the next demand data.

I am new to this forum, but following from the past 4 months and finally joined
Congrats for all those got GC's and PD date current.

EB2-I PD July 11 2007, Nebraska got approval today. It will keep the hope for future PD movement.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/838953013/10-12-11-485-approvals/page/last_page

qblogfan

10-12-2011, 10:01 PM

Please share your scenarios with us. I look forward to reading your analysis. It will help us understand the future movement better.

Spec,
Yes -this gives me a very precise range using which I can build my scenarios. Thanks again for your help.

suninphx

10-12-2011, 10:21 PM

Please share your scenarios with us. I look forward to reading your analysis. It will help us understand the future movement better.

Basic scenario is not very different from what you stated :) . I also have my own doubts about which quota numbers are being used. I may be proven wrong but till that time I will be inclined towards more of Mar-Apr 08 date for this FY.

I am also looking for earliest (and latest) date for filing AOS. So bascially when we get more handle on PD2007 data then it will be more clearer. What do you think?

nishant2200

10-12-2011, 10:25 PM

Wov! Guys, where's he getting numbers from. Looks like he is really respecting the Oct VB movement. I am amazed.

A Chinese EB2 July 13 2007 also got approved today. Totally there are around 40 approvals of EB2-C on mitbbs.

I think they are approving the majority of EB2 cases and it will be very interesting when they publish the next demand data.

pch053

10-12-2011, 11:09 PM

A Chinese EB2 July 13 2007 also got approved today. Totally there are around 40 approvals of EB2-C on mitbbs.

I think they are approving the majority of EB2 cases and it will be very interesting when they publish the next demand data.

There are around 40 EB2-I (incl. NIW) approvals in trackitt too for the month of Oct. Out of these around 27 folks have PDs between mid-April to mid-July (i.e. the PDs that got current in the Oct bulletin). I don't think we are certain yet that they will approve all pending (and pre-adjudicated) applications from 2007 or whether they will randomly approve around ~1400 EB2-I+C primarily filed during 2007 (700 quarterly quota for both EB2I and EB2C) cases during the first quarter.

Spectator

10-12-2011, 11:16 PM

Basic scenario is not very different from what you stated :) . I also have my own doubts about which quota numbers are being used. I may be proven wrong but till that time I will be inclined towards more of Mar-Apr 08 date for this FY.

I am also looking for earliest (and latest) date for filing AOS. So bascially when we get more handle on PD2007 data then it will be more clearer. What do you think?If we can validate the calculations against real numbers, it will be extremely useful, to say the least. I think that can only come from the USCIS Inventory (with the monthly breakdown) and relies on it being published during a time when the new applications have been received, but none have been approved. That might prove quite difficult, unless the dates retrogress for a while. Otherwise, like the DOS Demand Data, the numbers are too dynamic.

qblogfan

10-12-2011, 11:40 PM

Suninphx, I agree with your prediction. I think April 08 is a good estimation. I think folks before April 08 should have a good chance to submit 485, but may not get GC in this FY. But I think EAD/AP should be possible for these folks.

Basic scenario is not very different from what you stated :) . I also have my own doubts about which quota numbers are being used. I may be proven wrong but till that time I will be inclined towards more of Mar-Apr 08 date for this FY.

I am also looking for earliest (and latest) date for filing AOS. So bascially when we get more handle on PD2007 data then it will be more clearer. What do you think?

qblogfan

10-12-2011, 11:42 PM

Yes, I am amazed that Mr.CO is approving these cases without any delay. At least six guys on mitbbs got GC with PD later than July 1st 2007. Totally more than 40 approvals have been reported in the first 12 days.

Wov! Guys, where's he getting numbers from. Looks like he is really respecting the Oct VB movement. I am amazed.

qblogfan

10-12-2011, 11:45 PM

I think it is very possible. As far as the approval is around 700, that does not violates any immigration law. Nobody can attack him for moving PD in big leaps. All these politicians don't want to get into trouble.

There are around 40 EB2-I (incl. NIW) approvals in trackitt too for the month of Oct. Out of these around 27 folks have PDs between mid-April to mid-July (i.e. the PDs that got current in the Oct bulletin). I don't think we are certain yet that they will approve all pending (and pre-adjudicated) applications from 2007 or whether they will randomly approve around ~1400 EB2-I+C primarily filed during 2007 (700 quarterly quota for both EB2I and EB2C) cases during the first quarter.

qesehmk

10-13-2011, 09:03 AM

sportsfan 50K ahead of you is way overestimation. Typically 2.5K per month would give you 30K per year. I would be comfortable with 2.5K per month formula.

I can say with certainty that you will be able to file 485 within 1 yr from now and should have a GC 2 years from now.

The question I would ask myself if I were you - do I have the luxury to wait that much (which doesn;'t sound too much compared to what you have already spent) & secondly what am I losing in my career in pursuit of GC (if anything at all).

As I said - for you there definitely is light at the end of tunnel and its not a freight train ;)

Hello everyone,

I joined this board only last night. I have found this to be one of the most informative boards among all immigration forums, and I have to thank all "Gurus" for their hard work.

As like everyone here, I am stuck in the EB2-I quagmire. I came to the US back in 2000, and for various reasons, my GC wasn't filed until 2008 (I was working as a research scientist for 3 years after my MS, but they never filed for me, and my present company took a grand 3 years to file).

I had almost left hope and was going to go back. However the recent visa movement has made me stick around. I see that there are visa approvals for even people from July. This is quite surprising. My question is - are they able to give out those visas from this years 5600 numbers only? If so, can we say that everyone from July 2007 onwards would be covered by the spillovers starting in April.

Since my PD is October 2008, I have seen from various accounts I should expect about 40-45K people in front of me from July 2007 till October 2008 (including estimated porters). If we get lucky and have a spillover of 30K again for the coming year, would dates advance enough till next October (start of a new FY) for me to become current?

On this thread, I see an optimistic prediction of May 2008 for FY 2012. But are you implying that date for people to get GCs or a projected date for the USCIS in inventory building purposes? And 2008 being a "light year", would they be comfortable in building inventory even 8 months in future? For a "dense" 2007, they certainly don't seem afraid to go 4 months in advance - more if they move the dates further.

Thanks for the informative forum once again.

Kanmani

10-13-2011, 09:28 AM

Sportsfan

Welcome to this forum.

Regarding the Dense and light years, there is no data available as of now to consider them as dense and light and moreover asper the perm data available, both are equally dense, also 2008 does have a high potential to yield as many I485 as 2007.

As Spec pointed out the resilient nature of our guys , even in the deep recession there is a chance of retaining the PDs , by recapturing them in the years 2009, 2010 onwards.

So please compare Yesterday's two tables and come to an idea by yourself that if you believe there are drop outs and multiple perms then go by Suninphx table and if you dont think so go by Specs table ( this is just an assumption until the original datas come in to picture)

Both the tables were worked out by Spectator

dce.deepak

10-13-2011, 09:29 AM

Spec/Veni,

How did you come up with this formulae to calculate the received date for Perm application
=DATE(2000+INT(MID(A1,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A1,3,5),1000))
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI

This seems to work for my case number but not for one of my friend.

nishant2200

10-13-2011, 09:29 AM

Not to dash anyone's optimism, but we all seem to be taking 25k SOFAD for granted. There is 30k 140 backlog, 10k of it is more than last year, pointed out by Teddy. Last Q4 they did indicate them jumping on E1 n E2ROW. So what mitigating factors are there to consider 25k n not 20k SOFAD.

I am just afraid of too high hopes. I feel that Nov VB move indicates what date CO thinks will get GC this year, anymore he will take to have buffer and have some inward path into next FY.

Kanmani

10-13-2011, 09:40 AM

Sportsfan

Your are calculatingby taking the total perm certified in the year 2008 instead you have to take the total number of perms with 2008 priority date by looking into the table horizontally. There are 23,503 perms with PD 2008

grnwtg

10-13-2011, 09:41 AM

Hi sportsfan,

Calculation from Perms filed:
When if you this this link from spec
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)

You can notice that total perms
for 2007 - 28977
for 2008 - 27657
for 2009 - 18740
for 2010 - 24321

if we see in 2006, there are about 2300/per month on average and in 2007( till July) are about same 2300/month average, and some people here believe that there are about 5k people whose priority date in this range who missed the boat which makes average as 3000k/month and i agree that, 2007 is very very dense (i myself know around 5-6 companies who have given around 50-60 labors as substitution, so i can imagine who it would have effect in whole country).
According to above data i feel in 2008, average/month will not exceed 2300/month

Hello everyone,

I joined this board only last night. I have found this to be one of the most informative boards among all immigration forums, and I have to thank all "Gurus" for their hard work.

As like everyone here, I am stuck in the EB2-I quagmire. I came to the US back in 2000, and for various reasons, my GC wasn't filed until 2008 (I was working as a research scientist for 3 years after my MS, but they never filed for me, and my present company took a grand 3 years to file).

I had almost left hope and was going to go back. However the recent visa movement has made me stick around. I see that there are visa approvals for even people from July. This is quite surprising. My question is - are they able to give out those visas from this years 5600 numbers only? If so, can we say that everyone from July 2007 onwards would be covered by the spillovers starting in April.

Since my PD is October 2008, I have seen from various accounts I should expect about 40-45K people in front of me from July 2007 till October 2008 (including estimated porters). If we get lucky and have a spillover of 30K again for the coming year, would dates advance enough till next October (start of a new FY) for me to become current?

On this thread, I see an optimistic prediction of May 2008 for FY 2012. But are you implying that date for people to get GCs or a projected date for the USCIS in inventory building purposes? And 2008 being a "light year", would they be comfortable in building inventory even 8 months in future? For a "dense" 2007, they certainly don't seem afraid to go 4 months in advance - more if they move the dates further.

Thanks for the informative forum once again.

Spectator

10-13-2011, 09:50 AM

Since my PD is October 2008, I have seen from various accounts I should expect about 40-45K people in front of me from July 2007 till October 2008 (including estimated porters). If we get lucky and have a spillover of 30K again for the coming year, would dates advance enough till next October (start of a new FY) for me to become current?

On this thread, I see an optimistic prediction of May 2008 for FY 2012. But are you implying that date for people to get GCs or a projected date for the USCIS in inventory building purposes? And 2008 being a "light year", would they be comfortable in building inventory even 8 months in future? For a "dense" 2007, they certainly don't seem afraid to go 4 months in advance - more if they move the dates further.I would agree with your estimation of a little over 40k existing EB2-IC applicants ahead of you at when FY2012 started. Let's call it 40k for sake of simplicity.

If 30k visas were available to EB2-IC this year, that would nominally reduce the number needed to 10k.

That number is probably within the buffer range that DOS might consider to have an inventory beyond what can be approved in FY2012 itself.

Adding Porting would increase this, so it might rise to 13-16k, which might be pushing it.

I think when people talk about May 2008, that is based on DOS moving the Cut Off dates based on 35k, including any buffer and assuming 3.5k Porting / cases from FY2011. People in the buffer zone would be able to file I-485, but not be approved.

Based on that scenario, it would require another 10k in FY2013 (excluding Porting) to move the Cut Off dates to the middle of October, so that might be possible in the first few months of FY2013.

See this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011), which you probably have already looked at.

At the moment, I think 30k actual visas is too optimistic for FY2012; movement of the Cut Off dates to account for 35k is not impossible, but who knows with DOS?

I wouldn't necessarily agree that PD in 2008 are "light. See this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29). You will have seen the beginnings of a discussion about how numbers of remaining cases might be affected by the recession about that time.

In summary, I'm not wildly optimistic about you becoming Current in FY2012 itself.

qblogfan

10-13-2011, 10:14 AM

I think you should be current in the beginning of FY 2013. Once the demand is less than 10k in the next October, Mr.CO will start building another pipeline. You should be able to submit your 485 in the next October or Nov.

I would agree with your estimation of a little over 40k existing EB2-IC applicants ahead of you at when FY2012 started. Let's call it 40k for sake of simplicity.

If 30k visas were available to EB2-IC this year, that would nominally reduce the number needed to 10k.

That number is probably within the buffer range that DOS might consider to have an inventory beyond what can be approved in FY2012 itself.

Adding Porting would increase this, so it might rise to 13-16k, which might be pushing it.

I think when people talk about May 2008, that is based on DOS moving the Cut Off dates based on 35k, including any buffer and assuming 3.5k Porting / cases from FY2011. People in the buffer zone would be able to file I-485, but not be approved.

Based on that scenario, it would require another 10k in FY2013 (excluding Porting) to move the Cut Off dates to the middle of October, so that might be possible in the first few months of FY2013.

See this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011), which you probably have already looked at.

At the moment, I think 30k actual visas is too optimistic for FY2012; movement of the Cut Off dates to account for 35k is not impossible, but who knows with DOS?

I wouldn't necessarily agree that PD in 2008 are "light. See this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29). You will have seen the beginnings of a discussion about how numbers of remaining cases might be affected by the recession about that time.

In summary, I'm not wildly optimistic about you becoming Current in FY2012 itself.

Reader

10-13-2011, 10:29 AM

Just based on the language given in the recent visa bulletin, here is what I think would happen.

"While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility"

While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated - This part indicates that at least another 6 months of movement is expected in this FY

they may not be made on a monthly basis - This sets the expectation that they may not move in next two bulletins and wait for another 2 months and then move it only in January by another 3 months.

and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility - This indicates that the dates would move back to Nov or Dec 2007 around March 2012 and will remain there until the next pipeline building starts in September 2012 bulletin.

Spectator

10-13-2011, 10:37 AM

Thanks Spectator. So "realistically", I am looking at April 2013 spillover. It looks to be a function of how many applications DoS can take while it would still have substantial numbers in the inventory. Any time from October 2012-March 2013, with the later dates more likely then? That's what it seems like. Is that an accurate statement?For approval, yes.

If we take the assumption of Cut Off date movement in FY2012 based on 35k, but actual SOFAD of 25k, then FY2013 would start with 10k applicants in the system with an earlier PD. If DOS move the dates again similarly to this year in Q1 FY2013, than your PD might become Current, allowing you to file I-1485.

You would be something like the 20,000th (plus porting cases with earlier PDs that get approved during the time it takes to adjudicate) case for the year, so actual approval would be delayed until later in the year, when sufficient visas can be allocated. But if you consider the processing time for the I-485, it probably wouldn't be any longer than a ROW applicant, applying at the same time, as that will probably be the rate limiting step.

Spectator

10-13-2011, 10:40 AM

Spec,

Looks like you are ignoring my message or missed it so posting it again ..
Patience is a virtue. It's a good lesson to learn.

suninphx

10-13-2011, 10:43 AM

grnwtg

10-13-2011, 10:52 AM

We never know how to intepret those statements and in previous instances their prediction was wrong.
Anyway if we consider that there are 5600 combined for Iand C, quarterly spillover for first quarter will be available in December ( around 4.5 to 6.5k) which makes available visas around 10k to 12k. But right now according to our Guru's calculation there will be atleast 19k demand. So remaining 7k to 9k people will continuously call them either through infopass or through senator. These people can be satisfied to an extent in 2nd Quarter. This is will be difficult situation for DOS to keep existing dates.

So by February bulletin dates might retrogress and go head to PD January '08 to PD March'2008 by June visa bulletin in May'2012 like last year.

And in case if demand they get is low due to any factor ( read this if are very optimistic :) )
1) demand decreased by 5000k this time and uscis explained it vaguely that some correctiions had to be made due to some mistakes
2) many I140 are abandoned due to various reasons
3) of they want to build demand by applying some common sense, they need to move dates anywhere between Jan'08 to april'08 in next visa bulleting or January visa bulletin.

Just based on the language given in the recent visa bulletin, here is what I think would happen.

"While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility"

While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated - This part indicates that at least another 6 months of movement is expected in this FY

they may not be made on a monthly basis - This sets the expectation that they may not move wait for another 2 months and then move it only in January by another 3 months.

and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility - This indicates that the dates would move back to Nov or Dec 2007 around March 2012 and will remain there until the next pipeline building starts in September 2012 bulletin.

dce.deepak

10-13-2011, 11:05 AM

Patience is a virtue. It's a good lesson to learn.

Thanks spec...,
I was just wondering whether you missed it or looked at it.. now I know you looked at it I will be patient...
this is one case number where its not working A-07215-xxxxx this has a priority date of 23 May 2008 (verified with I-140) but with your formulae it coming as Aug 3rd 2007 with this formulae =DATE(2000+INT(MID(A1,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A1,3,5),1000))

leo4ever

10-13-2011, 11:25 AM

I would agree with your estimation of a little over 40k existing EB2-IC applicants ahead of you at when FY2012 started. Let's call it 40k for sake of simplicity.

If 30k visas were available to EB2-IC this year, that would nominally reduce the number needed to 10k.

That number is probably within the buffer range that DOS might consider to have an inventory beyond what can be approved in FY2012 itself.

Adding Porting would increase this, so it might rise to 13-16k, which might be pushing it.

I think when people talk about May 2008, that is based on DOS moving the Cut Off dates based on 35k, including any buffer and assuming 3.5k Porting / cases from FY2011. People in the buffer zone would be able to file I-485, but not be approved.

Based on that scenario, it would require another 10k in FY2013 (excluding Porting) to move the Cut Off dates to the middle of October, so that might be possible in the first few months of FY2013.

See this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011), which you probably have already looked at.

At the moment, I think 30k actual visas is too optimistic for FY2012; movement of the Cut Off dates to account for 35k is not impossible, but who knows with DOS?

I wouldn't necessarily agree that PD in 2008 are "light. See this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29). You will have seen the beginnings of a discussion about how numbers of remaining cases might be affected by the recession about that time.

In summary, I'm not wildly optimistic about you becoming Current in FY2012 itself.

very nicely said my friend. I like the way you explained it. I am in Nov'08 and i was expecting 2 more years to get my dates current. Who know what changes the movement going forward, its better be pessimist some times.

Kanmani

10-13-2011, 11:37 AM

Deepak

The formula is true only if the online perm application is filled up and submitted on the same day by the respective attorney. In your friend's case, the attorney might have pressed the submit button after some days( even months) .

The case number( first five digits ) is the day of the respective year . For example today is 11285 ( 285th day of 2011) , if your and your friend's attorney prepares the perm application online on the same day but submits them 1 month apart, then the first five digits of your A# will be the same.

But the Priority dates will be different .

Note: I replied to your first post.

nishant2200

10-13-2011, 12:05 PM

Yes, both of you are kind of correct. You never know.

Frankly, I think if DOS really wants to move dates to build inventory, they can just do that without any excuses. CO does not want to do excess and continue to be conservative so that no eyes are raised. His two main goals are: 1. Utilize all visas 2. Categories marked current should be honored and continue to remain current (this automatically implies fair allocation of SO, not doing quarterly SO so that any surprise demand later on does not lead to imposing cut off dates on current categories).

Date movement has nothing to do with actual GC issuance. Also if people call senators and open SR etc, they can always be informed, your file is awaiting a visa number.

It can go either way in next VB, I agree. Both sides can put forth some arguments and interpreations of CO's statement.

We never know how to intepret those statements and in previous instances their prediction was wrong.
Anyway if we consider that there are 5600 combined for Iand C, quarterly spillover for first quarter will be available in December ( around 4.5 to 6.5k) which makes available visas around 10k to 12k. But right now according to our Guru's calculation there will be atleast 19k demand. So remaining 7k to 9k people will continuously call them either through infopass or through senator. These people can be satisfied to an extent in 2nd Quarter. This is will be difficult situation for DOS to keep existing dates.

So by February bulletin dates might retrogress and go head to PD January '08 to PD March'2008 by June visa bulletin in May'2012 like last year.

And in case if demand they get is low due to any factor ( read this if are very optimistic :) )
1) demand decreased by 5000k this time and uscis explained it vaguely that some correctiions had to be made due to some mistakes
2) many I140 are abandoned due to various reasons
3) of they want to build demand by applying some common sense, they need to move dates anywhere between Jan'08 to april'08 in next visa bulleting or January visa bulletin.

Spectator

10-13-2011, 12:28 PM

Thanks spec...,
I was just wondering whether you missed it or looked at it.. now I know you looked at it I will be patient...
this is one case number where its not working A-07215-xxxxx this has a priority date of 23 May 2008 (verified with I-140) but with your formulae it coming as Aug 3rd 2007 with this formulae =DATE(2000+INT(MID(A1,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A1,3,5),1000))I agree with the result. As Kanmani, said, the Case No. is generated when the attorney first creates the case, not when it is submitted. It seems an exceptionally big gap, so perhaps it was created before even the PWD request was submitted, or they edited a previously created case which was not going to be submitted.

A mystery.

suninphx

10-13-2011, 12:54 PM

I agree with the result. As Kanmani, said, the Case No. is generated when the attorney first creates the case, not when it is submitted. It seems an exceptionally big gap, so perhaps it was created before even the PWD request was submitted, or they edited a previously created case which was not going to be submitted.

A mystery.

Ok this brings up a interesting statistics as to how many such cases exist? I think on border months(Nov-feb) there is higher possibility. Not sure if affects any statistics because it will cancel out. right?

Spectator

10-13-2011, 01:04 PM

Ok this brings up a interesting statistics as to how many such cases exist? I think on border months(Nov-feb) there is higher possibility. Not sure if affects any statistics because it will cancel out. right?Exactly right and there has been a discussion previously.

Anecdotally, the numbers aren't huge, but over the year, any effect is cancelled out.

girish989

10-13-2011, 03:08 PM

I wanted to remind people about Q's message about keeping the thread clean.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=11010#post11010

Do your homework before asking a question, stay clear of the "when will my PD become current" question and if you have asked a question that's been answered and doesn't add value to others, delete it. To practice what I preach, I promise to delete this comment in a few hours.

Spec/Q -

Not to spam your thread, but if one of the guru's can fill the table that I have requested couple of days back, it would answer the ever prevalent - 'WHEN WILL I BE CURRENT' question for every one visiting the forum:

PD By Quarter and Year | Earliest possible Date for 485 | Definitely possible Date for 485
Quarter 1 2008
Quarter 2 2008
Quarter 3 2008
Quarter 4 2008
Quarter 1 2009
Quarter 2 2009
Quarter 3 2009
Quarter 4 2009
Quarter 1 2010
Quarter 2 2010
Quarter 3 2010
Quarter 4 2010
Quarter 1 2011
Quarter 2 2011
Quarter 3 2011

Also, if you guys could fill this table once, I will reply to all the people who ask this question and point them to the correct post.

Spectator

10-13-2011, 03:50 PM

girish,

I'll be honest and say I won't be doing it.

Unless you can get a brain dump from CO, it is impossible to even speculate about such small time periods.

Also, PERM Certifications have still appeared in significant numbers in FY2011 Q1-Q3 for PDs in 2008, let alone later years. CY2011 is nowhere near complete.

It is a stretch even to publish the summary I already have and I have some misgivings about even doing that.

I suspect the lack of a response from anyone else means they have the same misgivings.

tanu_75

10-13-2011, 04:05 PM

Spec/Q -

Not to spam your thread, but if one of the guru's can fill the table that I have requested couple of days back, it would answer the ever prevalent - 'WHEN WILL I BE CURRENT' question for every one visiting the forum:

Also, if you guys could fill this table once, I will reply to all the people who ask this question and point them to the correct post.

Why don't you try and put it together yourself based on Spec's spreadsheet here :http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011

Your guess will be as good as anybody else's. If there's something which nobody knows it is how will CO move the dates. He's proved and continues to prove quite a few people wrong already. I think in essence, it's a futile effort.

Spec's sheet is the clearest indication for anyone to get an idea. You can use a algorithm based on best case porting - 12 months for your "Earliest Possible Date" and worst case porting - 5 months for your "Latest Possible Date". But we are in unknown territory when it comes to 485. After 4 years, it's only in the past month, that they restarted taking new 485 inventory(except PWMB). So noone knows what strategy he has in his mind. It'll need at least a few months of VB's to understand how he intends to do the buildup.

nishant2200

10-13-2011, 04:07 PM

APPLICATIONS FOR IMMIGRATION BENEFITS

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Application-for-Benefits/applications-for-benefits-2011-aug.pdf

plus there is some other data report linked on latest oh law firm breaking news.

I am yet to read the above pdf properly, but just put the link and info for everyone to see in meanwhile.

nishant2200

10-13-2011, 04:09 PM

the line:
WHAT IT SHOWS: Immigration application receipts decreased 27 percent compared to the number received in August 2010. August 2011 approvals decreased by 28 percent, denials decreased by 17 percent, and pending increased less than 3% compared to August 2010.

is very important. let's delve on this a bit.

APPLICATIONS FOR IMMIGRATION BENEFITS

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Application-for-Benefits/applications-for-benefits-2011-aug.pdf

plus there is some other data report linked on latest oh law firm breaking news.

I am yet to read the above pdf properly, but just put the link and info for everyone to see in meanwhile.

nishant2200

10-13-2011, 04:17 PM

My feeling is that the report looks good for us.

I am assuming they are referring to entire universe of ways one can get a green card.

It is showing that:
a. Incoming applications are lesser than last year
b. Approvals are lesser than last year, but denials have also decreased, so maybe balances out a bit. EB I-485 I think though, has very less denials anyways, so less approvals might be indicating less approvals in family based and other ways of getting in.
c. There is still lot of pending stuff, and seems to me, they have hit a plateau. They either need some funding and hire of extra resources, else they are not going to do away with backlog very soon. I will say there will be fee increases for sure this year it seems. As well as the premium processing for EB1C category in next year planned, looks certain, they need money to process backlog.
d. They have begun to start releasing data for immigration for FY 2011 !

Basically it confirms why there was huge SOFAD last year.

what else, chime in with your thoughts. or correct/enhance mine. I am really looking forward to someone saying this is good news, and we should not fear the 25k SOFAD mark, and CO will move dates a lot. This is for FY 2011 but I think when predicting future, CO has to look at this trend of last year.

nishant2200

10-13-2011, 04:28 PM

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

I-485 performance data

Data as of August 31, 2011
Published October 12, 2011

so must be just yesterday.

------------
updates: I think the I-485 Indo Chinese is to be ignored, it's not us, it's some special way of getting GC, just google I-485 indo chinese and you will see. So only I-485 Employment Based applies to us.

It just for field offices, not for main centers like Texas, Nebraska etc. I don't this report is much useful, let's see if Spec or anyone else finds any use.

leo4ever

10-13-2011, 04:41 PM

kd2008

10-13-2011, 05:13 PM

Folks, what impact do you think the current build-up of demand for EB2-I&C will have on I-485 processing time esp. EB2-ROW. Will it add a couple of months permanently? 6 months? This may result in a one time benefit for EB2-I&C this year as EB2-ROW consumption will drop because of processing delays (Same will be the case with EB1 too). From next year, this delay will be built-in and would continue to hold. This also means new I-485 filers from EB2-I&C will see longer processing times of their cases than current processing times.

nishant2200

10-13-2011, 05:33 PM

kd2008, until now USCIS had a huge pre-adjudicated inventory already, and now they have to build up inventory each year up-front. So I don't see any holes in your argument. It is after all additional work for them to do. More reason why they should move dates early on and not hang tight till ending stages.

Folks, what impact do you think the current build-up of demand for EB2-I&C will have on I-485 processing time esp. EB2-ROW. Will it add a couple of months permanently? 6 months? This may result in a one time benefit for EB2-I&C this year as EB2-ROW consumption will drop because of processing delays (Same will be the case with EB1 too). From next year, this delay will be built-in and would continue to hold. This also means new I-485 filers from EB2-I&C will see longer processing times of their cases than current processing times.

leo07

10-13-2011, 06:39 PM

I agree with kd2008 that EB2ROW could take some hit owing to the EB2IC movement. Not sure EB2IC would face any additional delays though. Because when you have X number of applications in a bucket with same/similar PDs, not sure IF CIS would differentiate them based on the country-limits. If they DO they will certainly have to retrogress the dates, following month. There is definitely a huge juggling-task though for a month or two for CIS.
I said month or two because, by the time additional EB2IC 485's become eligible for a visa number, it could be Jan/Feb and they will have enough visas from first two quarters and have a better understanding of number-progression for September 2012.

leo07

10-13-2011, 06:41 PM

On a completely different topic from predictions: Does any one know if the A# assigned during I-140 stage would remain same all the way to GC? ( Like on other applications as well)

Pedro Gonzales

10-13-2011, 07:11 PM

On a completely different topic from predictions: Does any one know if the A# assigned during I-140 stage would remain same all the way to GC? ( Like on other applications as well)

Simple answer: yes. Some of us who have multiple I-140s have different A#s, but I believe when you apply for the I485 all your numbers are merged into the number on the I-140 with the PD that you're using (earliest PD).

Kanmani

10-13-2011, 08:14 PM

Unlike H1b, I-140 with limited service centres, the I-485 applications are submitted to the Field offices, get pre-adjudicated there and sent to National Service centre. isn't?

Am I missing any thing?

If I am correct, then there are roughly 86 field offices to handle the pile of applications, so there wont be any notable delay .( my opinion but I really dont know )

gcdedo

10-13-2011, 08:45 PM

Can someone please respond to this?
Based on website if someone had TB in past the skin test will always show positive. Will chest x-ray also show results positive?
What are the options in such cases.

Kanmani

10-13-2011, 09:05 PM

Murthy's Recommendations: Be Prepared

"Most importantly, individuals who have priority dates that will become current in November must take steps toward preparing their cases for filing. Others, whose priority dates are not yet current but are close to the new cutoff date, may want to begin gathering all the documents and information needed for their I-485 filings. This will avoid unnecessary delays and will enable their cases to be filed in the first month that the priority date is available"

source : http://www.murthy.com/bulletin.html

GhostWriter

10-13-2011, 10:30 PM

Spec
I was trying to use an alternative calculation for the combined effect of the three multipliers that you use in calculations (Eb2/Total Perm, I-140 approval rate, Dependent ratio). The product for your multipliers is close to 0.9 (that Veni observed can be approximated with 1).
I took the actual EB2 visas issued for India and China from annual reports of visa office. If we take the total visas approved for Eb2-I and Eb2-C from 2003 - 2010 and divide them by corresponding total PERMs for India and China from June2002-May2006 then we can get an approximation of the combined multiplier. The overall assumption is that all the visas issued between 2003 to 2010 belong to priority dates between June 2002 to May 2006. I picked June 2002 to allow for 6 months approval time and May 2006 was the ending priority date for 2010. Here are my questions/issues
1. Does the approach seem reasonable or do you see some obvious flaws.
2. I was able to get the visas issued from the DOS site. For Perm i used the data provided by you in Facts and Data section but it only has complete data for 2007 onwards so i am missing 2002 to 2006.
3. The actual EB2-I visas issued in 2004, 2005 and 2008 are in 14-16K but they are only 3719 and 6203 in 2006 and 2007 which didn't seem right.
If you see value in doing this i can go ahead with the calculations and we can see how much this multiplier differs from 0.9.

gc0907

10-13-2011, 11:44 PM

Guys,
Got my medicals done and blogged my experience here (http://bit.ly/pde1VI).
Hope it helps someone.

qesehmk

10-14-2011, 12:32 AM

gc0907 kudos to you. A lot of people go through medicals but very few people write it down so well for others!
Why don't you create a new thread in the same location as vaccination. You can either reproduce the whole article or simply include the link.
I think that will keep it visible forever and help a lot of people.

Guys,
Got my medicals done and blogged my experience here (http://bit.ly/pde1VI).
Hope it helps someone.

tackle

10-14-2011, 09:57 AM

Guys,
Got my medicals done and blogged my experience here (http://bit.ly/pde1VI).
Hope it helps someone.

This is good information. Thank you for taking the time to do this.

soggadu

10-14-2011, 11:01 AM

Guys,
Got my medicals done and blogged my experience here (http://bit.ly/pde1VI).
Hope it helps someone.
you rock bud... very helpful

soggadu

10-14-2011, 11:05 AM

hey tackle... like your avatar... very colorful...

Ghostwriter.... did the GC wait make you like this? just wondering, rest in peace bro...abb GC ka kya karna... kidding...ur avatar is spooky dude, right in time for halloween....

aur Nishant and others... getting ready to get electrocuted? .....

needid

10-14-2011, 11:19 AM

Thanks for putting it together, It would help somebody, Mine started with blood test(titer) to determine what vaccines are already present and tetanus shot and PPD .Waiting for results, have appointment with Doc(list on USCIS website for my zipcode) on Tuesday.

Guys,
Got my medicals done and blogged my experience here (http://bit.ly/pde1VI).
Hope it helps someone.

qblogfan

10-14-2011, 12:19 PM

I checked mitbbs today. A Chinese EB2 submitted his/her case on August 1st and already got his/her GC in hand! Only 2 and half months for PWMB! It's so fast!

This is his/her progress:

8/1 RD
9/26 FP

10/11 AP

10/13 485

pch053

10-14-2011, 12:41 PM

Roughly how many approvals do you see in mitbbs for EB2-C in the month of Oct. There are around 50+ approvals for EB2-I in trackitt so far in this month.

gcseeker

10-14-2011, 12:56 PM

gc0907

Thanks a ton for taking the time to document this very well and it really helps plan things.

Guys,
Got my medicals done and blogged my experience here (http://bit.ly/pde1VI).
Hope it helps someone.

Today nytimes published an article indicating the surge in the number of students now pursuing bachelor degrees in usa from India.Also reflects the trend for master's too. Might help in some assumptions in SOFAD for later years .

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/world/asia/squeezed-out-in-india-students-turn-to-united-states.html

nishant2200

10-14-2011, 01:50 PM

I also know a couple of families who were in April third-last week 2007, they too got theirs this week. It's raining GCs it seems.

I checked mitbbs today. A Chinese EB2 submitted his/her case on August 1st and already got his/her GC in hand! Only 2 and half months for PWMB! It's so fast!

This is his/her progress:

8/1 RD
9/26 FP

10/11 AP

10/13 485

Roughly how many approvals do you see in mitbbs for EB2-C in the month of Oct. There are around 50+ approvals for EB2-I in trackitt so far in this month.

mrperfect

10-14-2011, 02:27 PM

immi2910

10-14-2011, 03:16 PM

Not sure if this was discussed in the calculations.. but noticed this in some other thread.. http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/I-140-data-2011-june.pdf ... the numbers are bit weird.. Gurus anyone help decipher the data from this pdf ..

I think the numbers are incorrect. I had asked this question at Ron Gotcher's forum (and here as well). At Ron's forum everyone agreed that the stats are not correct (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/i-140-approvals-jan-2008-to-jun-2011-a-15331/)

GhostWriter

10-14-2011, 05:00 PM

I will take that as a compliment :). It is based on the movie GhostWriter, watched recently and liked it.

hey tackle... like your avatar... very colorful...

Ghostwriter.... did the GC wait make you like this? just wondering, rest in peace bro...abb GC ka kya karna... kidding...ur avatar is spooky dude, right in time for halloween....

aur Nishant and others... getting ready to get electrocuted? .....

immi2910

10-14-2011, 05:19 PM

Spec/Q -

Not to spam your thread, but if one of the guru's can fill the table that I have requested couple of days back, it would answer the ever prevalent - 'WHEN WILL I BE CURRENT' question for every one visiting the forum:

PD By Quarter and Year | Earliest possible Date for 485 | Definitely possible Date for 485
Quarter 1 2008
Quarter 2 2008
Quarter 3 2008
Quarter 4 2008
Quarter 1 2009
Quarter 2 2009
Quarter 3 2009
Quarter 4 2009
Quarter 1 2010
Quarter 2 2010
Quarter 3 2010
Quarter 4 2010
Quarter 1 2011
Quarter 2 2011
Quarter 3 2011

Also, if you guys could fill this table once, I will reply to all the people who ask this question and point them to the correct post.

Here is my take on it based on following assumptions:

1. Everyone up to 12/31/07 gets GC in FY 2012

2. 19,400 SOFAD (includes porting) + 5,600 EB2 IC quota = 25,000 GC / year
-- 2a Approx. 2,000 applications / month or 6,500 / quarter or 12,500 / half year to come up with monthly breakdown

3. Every PERM application requires 1.15 visa numbers at I485 stage using the calculations below:
-- 3a EB2 IC is 70% of total IC PERM (see my other posts for the reason)
-- 3b ~80% I140 conversion rate (CM's analysis http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/01/when-will-i-get-my-green-card-green_20.html based on http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html)
-- 3c 2.05 visa numbers used by every I485 applicant
-- 3d 1 Perm Application = 0.7*0.8*2.05 = 1.15 I-485 visa numbers

4. All PERM applications as of 3/31/2011 have been completed (PERM data as of 6/30/11). Reasonable assumption since DoL have improved their process and almost all PERM applications are decided within 60 days

5. I think it is reasonable to subtract 6 months (USCIS processing time) from Expected Month column to get an approximation of when you will be current. You can subtract additional time if you think USCIS will be slower.

Petition Date|IC Perm Cases|Visa# Reqd|Expected Visa Available|Expected Month
2007-11-----|2434-----------|2794-------|FY-2012-------------|2012-08
2007-12-----|2247-----------|2580-------|FY-2012-------------|2012-09
2008-01-----|2900-----------|3329-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-10
2008-02-----|2733-----------|3137-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-12
2008-03-----|2244-----------|2576-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-02
2008-04-----|2716-----------|3118-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-03
2008-05-----|2513-----------|2885-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-05
2008-06-----|2142-----------|2459-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-06
2008-07-----|2046-----------|2349-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-07
2008-08-----|2029-----------|2329-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-08
2008-09-----|1891-----------|2171-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-09
2008-10-----|2389-----------|2743-------|FY-2014-------------|2013-10
2008-11-----|1985-----------|2279-------|FY-2014-------------|2013-11
2008-12-----|2069-----------|2375-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-01
2009-01-----|2065-----------|2371-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-02
2009-02-----|1766-----------|2027-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-03
2009-03-----|1794-----------|2060-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-04
2009-04-----|1839-----------|2111-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-05
2009-05-----|1451-----------|1666-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-06
2009-06-----|1462-----------|1678-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-07
2009-07-----|1287-----------|1477-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-08
2009-08-----|1247-----------|1432-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-08
2009-09-----|1489-----------|1709-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-09
2009-10-----|1502-----------|1724-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-09
2009-11-----|1359-----------|1560-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-10
2009-12-----|1479-----------|1698-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-10
2010-01-----|1495-----------|1716-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-11
2010-02-----|1318-----------|1513-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-12
2010-03-----|1734-----------|1991-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-01
2010-04-----|1610-----------|1848-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-02
2010-05-----|1672-----------|1919-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-03
2010-06-----|2035-----------|2336-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-04
2010-07-----|1761-----------|2022-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-06
2010-08-----|2273-----------|2609-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-07
2010-09-----|2264-----------|2599-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-08
2010-10-----|2445-----------|2807-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-09
2010-11-----|2507-----------|2878-------|FY-2016-------------|2015-10
2010-12-----|3207-----------|3682-------|FY-2016-------------|2015-11
2011-01-----|2782-----------|3194-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-01
2011-02-----|2950-----------|3387-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-03
2011-03-----|2823-----------|3241-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-04
2011-04-----|1495-----------|1716-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-06
2011-05-----|0005-----------|0006-------|FY-2016-------------|Additional-Data-needed
2011-06-----|0001-----------|0001-------|FY-2016-------------|Additional-Data-needed

cbpds1

10-14-2011, 05:51 PM

Seems something is missing as filing of 485 for Feb 08 is 09/2012, i think it will be by May 2012

[QUOTE=immi2910;11228]Here is my take on it based on following assumptions:

immi2910

10-14-2011, 05:55 PM

Seems something is missing as filing of 485 for Feb 08 is 09/2012, i think it will be by May 2012

[QUOTE=immi2910;11228]Here is my take on it based on following assumptions:

I just updated my definitions. What I meant was when the visa numbers would be available. I think it is reasonable to subtract 6 months (or longer for USCIS processing times) to get an approximation of when the date will be current.

chikitsak

10-14-2011, 08:20 PM

I Believe, People with PD of Feb 08 should be able to file by Feb 2012. This would be so that USCIS has enough cases pre-adjudicated to cover all SOFAD in July-Sept 2012.

I agree that most likely approval for folks beyond Jan 2012 would be in the next immigration year 2013 (immigration year like financial year:)). IY-13.

Either way they should be able to file and get their AP and EAD in IY-12.

knight

10-14-2011, 09:58 PM

Just got a mail saying my app (PD 5/4/07) got approved and the card production was ordered. Spouse's app(PWMB) was sent to USCIS on 10/3/11. Thanks all! And may everyone here be greened soon!!

veni001

10-14-2011, 10:37 PM

Monica12

10-14-2011, 11:42 PM

grnwtg

10-15-2011, 10:17 AM

Congrats!!!

knight,
Congratulations!

grnwtg

10-15-2011, 10:19 AM

This is a one of the best posts i have seen, thankyou very much.

Guys,
Got my medicals done and blogged my experience here (http://bit.ly/pde1VI).
Hope it helps someone.

nishant2200

10-15-2011, 10:58 AM

Good effort immi2910. No one's calculations is 100% right, it's basically agreeing on various data sources one can use, and based on different assumptions, and prediction of CO's mind :) , one can compute figures. It takes hard work and dedication to do though, and I congratulate you on doing it.

Here is my take on it based on following assumptions:

1. Everyone up to 12/31/07 gets GC in FY 2012

2. 19,400 SOFAD (includes porting) + 5,600 EB2 IC quota = 25,000 GC / year
-- 2a Approx. 2,000 applications / month or 6,500 / quarter or 12,500 / half year to come up with monthly breakdown

3. Every PERM application requires 1.15 visa numbers at I485 stage using the calculations below:
-- 3a EB2 IC is 70% of total IC PERM (see my other posts for the reason)
-- 3b ~80% I140 conversion rate (CM's analysis http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/01/when-will-i-get-my-green-card-green_20.html based on http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html)
-- 3c 2.05 visa numbers used by every I485 applicant
-- 3d 1 Perm Application = 0.7*0.8*2.05 = 1.15 I-485 visa numbers

4. All PERM applications as of 3/31/2011 have been completed (PERM data as of 6/30/11). Reasonable assumption since DoL have improved their process and almost all PERM applications are decided within 60 days

5. I think it is reasonable to subtract 6 months (USCIS processing time) from Expected Month column to get an approximation of when you will be current. You can subtract additional time if you think USCIS will be slower.

Petition Date|IC Perm Cases|Visa# Reqd|Expected Visa Available|Expected Month
2007-11-----|2434-----------|2794-------|FY-2012-------------|2012-08
2007-12-----|2247-----------|2580-------|FY-2012-------------|2012-09
2008-01-----|2900-----------|3329-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-10
2008-02-----|2733-----------|3137-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-12
2008-03-----|2244-----------|2576-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-02
2008-04-----|2716-----------|3118-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-03
2008-05-----|2513-----------|2885-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-05
2008-06-----|2142-----------|2459-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-06
2008-07-----|2046-----------|2349-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-07
2008-08-----|2029-----------|2329-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-08
2008-09-----|1891-----------|2171-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-09
2008-10-----|2389-----------|2743-------|FY-2014-------------|2013-10
2008-11-----|1985-----------|2279-------|FY-2014-------------|2013-11
2008-12-----|2069-----------|2375-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-01
2009-01-----|2065-----------|2371-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-02
2009-02-----|1766-----------|2027-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-03
2009-03-----|1794-----------|2060-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-04
2009-04-----|1839-----------|2111-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-05
2009-05-----|1451-----------|1666-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-06
2009-06-----|1462-----------|1678-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-07
2009-07-----|1287-----------|1477-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-08
2009-08-----|1247-----------|1432-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-08
2009-09-----|1489-----------|1709-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-09
2009-10-----|1502-----------|1724-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-09
2009-11-----|1359-----------|1560-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-10
2009-12-----|1479-----------|1698-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-10
2010-01-----|1495-----------|1716-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-11
2010-02-----|1318-----------|1513-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-12
2010-03-----|1734-----------|1991-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-01
2010-04-----|1610-----------|1848-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-02
2010-05-----|1672-----------|1919-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-03
2010-06-----|2035-----------|2336-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-04
2010-07-----|1761-----------|2022-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-06
2010-08-----|2273-----------|2609-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-07
2010-09-----|2264-----------|2599-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-08
2010-10-----|2445-----------|2807-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-09
2010-11-----|2507-----------|2878-------|FY-2016-------------|2015-10
2010-12-----|3207-----------|3682-------|FY-2016-------------|2015-11
2011-01-----|2782-----------|3194-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-01
2011-02-----|2950-----------|3387-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-03
2011-03-----|2823-----------|3241-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-04
2011-04-----|1495-----------|1716-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-06
2011-05-----|0005-----------|0006-------|FY-2016-------------|Additional-Data-needed
2011-06-----|0001-----------|0001-------|FY-2016-------------|Additional-Data-needed

srd4gc

10-15-2011, 12:30 PM

gc0907, thanks for sharing your experience. Helps a lot in understanding the flowchart...
i am thinking to get the vaccinations done with primary physician as there is no validity date for vaccinations...

Guys,
Got my medicals done and blogged my experience here (http://bit.ly/pde1VI).
Hope it helps someone.

knight

10-15-2011, 12:51 PM

Thanks Veni, Monica, grnwtg !!

TeddyKoochu

10-15-2011, 01:31 PM

Just got a mail saying my app (PD 5/4/07) got approved and the card production was ordered. Spouse's app(PWMB) was sent to USCIS on 10/3/11. Thanks all! And may everyone here be greened soon!!

Many congratulations to you and your family. Thanks for sharing the good news with all of us. Have a great green life ahead.

TeddyKoochu

10-15-2011, 01:37 PM

nishant2200

10-15-2011, 01:59 PM

Teddy is back!

Thanks for the trackitt trend analysis. Seems then most probably CO has indeed made some special arrangement with powers that are. Or there is some unannounced yet game like FB spillover.

I am very doubtful of quarterly SO, but if it is so, then next VB might be stuck and move may only happen in Q2 then. But in this strategy CO is relying on USCIS to approve 485 in 2-3 months and throughout the year there will be some new E2 IC 485 coming in when USCIS has to do 140 backlog reduction, that is why I think quarterly SO is not happening, or if its happening date movement should still be tagged on at start of FY, and hence Dec VB shud move.

After looking at the approvals trend it is quite clear that those who are current are being approved at a reasonable but not at an all inclusive pace. By reasonable I would like to infer that the approvals exceed the allowed usage for India and China both 250 (Monthly Limit) and 750 (Quarterly Limit). However amongst those current there is still a large number of people waiting I believe the approved to waiting ratio is 50-50. On Trackitt I read that NSC is performing better than TSC on approvals. The next limit for the approvals is the full annual cap of 2800 for I/C, if the agencies like they can consume the whole cap this month itself, let’s all keep watch. Will request all who are getting approved to share the good news.

veni001

10-15-2011, 03:10 PM

After looking at the approvals trend it is quite clear that those who are current are being approved at a reasonable but not at an all inclusive pace. By reasonable I would like to infer that the approvals exceed the allowed usage for India and China both 250 (Monthly Limit) and 750 (Quarterly Limit). However amongst those current there is still a large number of people waiting I believe the approved to waiting ratio is 50-50. On Trackitt I read that NSC is performing better than TSC on approvals. The next limit for the approvals is the full annual cap of 2800 for I/C, if the agencies like they can consume the whole cap this month itself, let’s all keep watch. Will request all who are getting approved to share the good news.

Teddy is back!

Thanks for the trackitt trend analysis. Seems then most probably CO has indeed made some special arrangement with powers that are. Or there is some unannounced yet game like FB spillover.

I am very doubtful of quarterly SO, but if it is so, then next VB might be stuck and move may only happen in Q2 then. But in this strategy CO is relying on USCIS to approve 485 in 2-3 months and throughout the year there will be some new E2 IC 485 coming in when USCIS has to do 140 backlog reduction, that is why I think quarterly SO is not happening, or if its happening date movement should still be tagged on at start of FY, and hence Dec VB shud move.

Based on approval trend, looks like USCIS is following similar to last year trend in approving EB2IC by taking advantage of lower EB1 & EB2ROW demand/approvals.

They are still going to keep the overall VISA usage with in the allowed numbers (27%) for Q1.

pch053

10-15-2011, 04:01 PM

I think veni's explanation is very reasonable and also quite plausible to me. So, based on this scenario, we will have around 10K EB2 (I/C + ROW) approvals this quarter. So, overall if EB2-ROW consumes fewer than expected visas, there will be more EB2-I/C approvals. There are around 8K EB2-I/C with PD up to mid-Aug'07 (excluding PWMB) and 1K - 2K ending applications with earlier PDs and/or porting (~10K overall). So, there will be a reasonable number of EB2-I/C from 2007 filers who won't be approved this quarter.

nishant2200

10-15-2011, 04:07 PM

Veni, pch053: Thank you. So are we hinting there is quarterly SO being done. And if so how is the 27% limit being respected as well as SO being used in beginning of Q1 instead of end. Sorry if I am totally speaking nonsense here, give me benefit of doubt and elaborate please.

Based on approval trend, looks like USCIS is following similar to last year trend in approving EB2IC by taking advantage of lower EB1 & EB2ROW demand/approvals.

They are still going to keep the overall VISA usage with in the allowed numbers (27%) for Q1.

I think veni's explanation is very reasonable and also quite plausible to me. So, based on this scenario, we will have around 10K EB2 (I/C + ROW) approvals this quarter. So, overall if EB2-ROW consumes fewer than expected visas, there will be more EB2-I/C approvals. There are around 8K EB2-I/C with PD up to mid-Aug'07 (excluding PWMB) and 1K - 2K ending applications with earlier PDs and/or porting (~10K overall). So, there will be a reasonable number of EB2-I/C from 2007 filers who won't be approved this quarter.

veni001

10-15-2011, 04:18 PM

nishant2200

10-15-2011, 04:23 PM

Nishanth,
USCIS/DOS did not follow quarterly spillover last year, instead they used EB2IC full FY quota in the first two quarters.

Got it. So one takeaway can be that CO will want to build a 30-35k inventory as he is inspired by last year. As well as my thought that USCIS may be approaching their limit in backlog reduction of 140 might be tending towards truth. This portends good for the future.

vedu

10-15-2011, 07:03 PM

Guys,

I think there is a good possibility that the dates won't move in December visa bulletin. It may well be that the DOS is done with the first quarter movements. Now they may like to take a break and monitor the new demand over the entire month of November. Any ways, December is the month of holidays and they may not have appetite for another big movement and the new flood of applications that comes along with that.

Come January, things will be different. It will be the start of the second quarter. They will have firm idea of the new demand by then and most importantly, new visa numbers will be available for the second quarter.

In conclusion, I am thinking that the next big movement will be in January visa bulletin....just a thought!

Jonty Rhodes

10-15-2011, 11:25 PM

I don't know if this data has been posted before or not but I just found it on OH law firm website while surfing.

I have not personally gone over the report in detail as it is very voluminous. But I just eye-balled it quickly and it seems that it has lots of important information. May be the Gurus can go over it and throw some light if they find something interesting and useful to us.

One interesting thing I noticed though was on the beginning of Page 15. It says "Each industry, as classified by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), experienced a significant increase in the number of certifications issued in FY 2010. It must be noted that the increase in certifications in all industries can be largely attributed to the significant increase in adjudications due to the backlog reduction effort, and not from any increase in filings".

Lot of people have been saying on different forums that the number of PERM filings have gone up significantly in 2010 and that may adversely affect people who have PDs in 2010 and 2011 (My PD is 5/20/11). But here the report mentions something else. Would this be a good news then? Can someone throw some light on this?

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/OFLC_2010_Annual_Report_Master.pdf

Please remove if this link is a repost.

qblogfan

10-16-2011, 12:29 AM

I think they will continue to move forward because it does not make much difference to stop for 1 month to monitor the situation.

I believe they have better data than us and they estimated a pretty close number based on the data they have. I also believe they already made their plan half year ago when Mr.Co annouced the low demand of EB1 in April.

All he is doing is an excution of the plan they made six months ago.

Guys,

I think there is a good possibility that the dates won't move in December visa bulletin. It may well be that the DOS is done with the first quarter movements. Now they may like to take a break and monitor the new demand over the entire month of November. Any ways, December is the month of holidays and they may not have appetite for another big movement and the new flood of applications that comes along with that.

Come January, things will be different. It will be the start of the second quarter. They will have firm idea of the new demand by then and most importantly, new visa numbers will be available for the second quarter.

In conclusion, I am thinking that the next big movement will be in January visa bulletin....just a thought!

vedu

10-16-2011, 12:44 AM

Another thing that lead me to believe that the dates won't move in December is their actions last year, during May - September, 2011. They moved the dates well in advance, and then we started expecting dates to move with the same pace in the later months. But it didn't happen. I am thinking that going forward that may be the trend quarter by quarter.

I think they will continue to move forward because it does not make much difference to stop for 1 month to monitor the situation.

I believe they have better data than us and they estimated a pretty close number based on the data they have. I also believe they already made their plan half year ago when Mr.Co annouced the low demand of EB1 in April.

All he is doing is an excution of the plan they made six months ago.

nishant2200

10-16-2011, 08:48 AM

Vedu, as I said earlier, wud only happen if doing quarterly SO and CO feels need to justify movement based on quarterly numbers. Each and every quarter cat and mouse game. It's not impossible, but only reason we are thinking that he put the words may not move on a monthly basis.

It does not make any sense for him to go this route, but we are not mind readers. Calculations and data show he has to get at least end of 2007.

We can only wait and watch now. 23 days to go.

Another thing that lead me to believe that the dates won't move in December is their actions last year, during May - September, 2011. They moved the dates well in advance, and then we started expecting dates to move with the same pace in the later months. But it didn't happen. I am thinking that going forward that may be the trend quarter by quarter.

suninphx

10-16-2011, 06:30 PM

Here is my take on it based on following assumptions:

1. Everyone up to 12/31/07 gets GC in FY 2012

2. 19,400 SOFAD (includes porting) + 5,600 EB2 IC quota = 25,000 GC / year
-- 2a Approx. 2,000 applications / month or 6,500 / quarter or 12,500 / half year to come up with monthly breakdown

3. Every PERM application requires 1.15 visa numbers at I485 stage using the calculations below:
-- 3a EB2 IC is 70% of total IC PERM (see my other posts for the reason)
-- 3b ~80% I140 conversion rate (CM's analysis http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/01/when-will-i-get-my-green-card-green_20.html based on http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html)
-- 3c 2.05 visa numbers used by every I485 applicant
-- 3d 1 Perm Application = 0.7*0.8*2.05 = 1.15 I-485 visa numbers

4. All PERM applications as of 3/31/2011 have been completed (PERM data as of 6/30/11). Reasonable assumption since DoL have improved their process and almost all PERM applications are decided within 60 days

5. I think it is reasonable to subtract 6 months (USCIS processing time) from Expected Month column to get an approximation of when you will be current. You can subtract additional time if you think USCIS will be slower.

Petition Date|IC Perm Cases|Visa# Reqd|Expected Visa Available|Expected Month
2007-11-----|2434-----------|2794-------|FY-2012-------------|2012-08
2007-12-----|2247-----------|2580-------|FY-2012-------------|2012-09
2008-01-----|2900-----------|3329-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-10
2008-02-----|2733-----------|3137-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-12
2008-03-----|2244-----------|2576-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-02
2008-04-----|2716-----------|3118-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-03
2008-05-----|2513-----------|2885-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-05
2008-06-----|2142-----------|2459-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-06
2008-07-----|2046-----------|2349-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-07
2008-08-----|2029-----------|2329-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-08
2008-09-----|1891-----------|2171-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-09
2008-10-----|2389-----------|2743-------|FY-2014-------------|2013-10
2008-11-----|1985-----------|2279-------|FY-2014-------------|2013-11
2008-12-----|2069-----------|2375-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-01
2009-01-----|2065-----------|2371-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-02
2009-02-----|1766-----------|2027-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-03
2009-03-----|1794-----------|2060-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-04
2009-04-----|1839-----------|2111-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-05
2009-05-----|1451-----------|1666-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-06
2009-06-----|1462-----------|1678-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-07
2009-07-----|1287-----------|1477-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-08
2009-08-----|1247-----------|1432-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-08
2009-09-----|1489-----------|1709-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-09
2009-10-----|1502-----------|1724-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-09
2009-11-----|1359-----------|1560-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-10
2009-12-----|1479-----------|1698-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-10
2010-01-----|1495-----------|1716-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-11
2010-02-----|1318-----------|1513-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-12
2010-03-----|1734-----------|1991-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-01
2010-04-----|1610-----------|1848-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-02
2010-05-----|1672-----------|1919-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-03
2010-06-----|2035-----------|2336-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-04
2010-07-----|1761-----------|2022-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-06
2010-08-----|2273-----------|2609-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-07
2010-09-----|2264-----------|2599-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-08
2010-10-----|2445-----------|2807-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-09
2010-11-----|2507-----------|2878-------|FY-2016-------------|2015-10
2010-12-----|3207-----------|3682-------|FY-2016-------------|2015-11
2011-01-----|2782-----------|3194-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-01
2011-02-----|2950-----------|3387-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-03
2011-03-----|2823-----------|3241-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-04
2011-04-----|1495-----------|1716-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-06
2011-05-----|0005-----------|0006-------|FY-2016-------------|Additional-Data-needed
2011-06-----|0001-----------|0001-------|FY-2016-------------|Additional-Data-needed

This is a great effort.

(Why) this does not consider any denials at PERM stage?

Sandeep2011

10-16-2011, 09:00 PM

veni001

10-16-2011, 10:11 PM

Can i file my I-485 on my own?

Gurus, need some guidance here.

My employer is in the midst of major restructuring and immigration is not something that is on the top of the list during this reorg. As a result, although i have become current during Nov visa bulletin, there is no action taken by my company despite my repeated follow-ups to start 485 process. I have all the documents needed to file I-485 except for employment letter. If i get the employment letter from HR, can i go ahead and file I-485 on my own or do i have to go through a company appointed attorney? Also, by when do i need to file my application - do i have time till Nov 30th or do i need to file before December visa bulletin comes out?

Thanks.

Sandeep,
i485 is your application,even company attorney need your permission to file your 485.

All you need from the employer is Constitution of Full-time Employment Offer Letter.

If you are not planning to use company attorney, i would recommend use your own.

It's matter of few thousand dollars but will give you peace of mind.

immi2910

10-16-2011, 11:52 PM

This is a great effort.

(Why) this does not consider any denials at PERM stage?

These are certified PERM and thus excludes any denials

Sandeep2011

10-17-2011, 07:14 AM

Thank you Veni. You made my day.

Also, by when 485 applications should be received by USCIS? Thanks again.

Sandeep,
i485 is your application,even company attorney need your permission to file your 485.

All you need from the employer is Constitution of Full-time Employment Offer Letter.

If you are not planning to use company attorney, i would recommend use your own.

It's matter of few thousand dollars but will give you peace of mind.

rahil1

10-17-2011, 08:54 AM

I received my card in mail on 10/15/ 2011... I am relieved..
thanks to all in this forum Q, Teddy, Veni, Nishant and soggadu.. I wish best of luck to all....

dec2007

10-17-2011, 09:23 AM

I received my card in mail on 10/15/ 2011... I am relieved..
thanks to all in this forum Q, Teddy, Veni, Nishant and soggadu.. I wish best of luck to all....

Congrats! what is your PD?

leo4ever

10-17-2011, 09:24 AM

This is a great effort.

(Why) this does not consider any denials at PERM stage?

Great effort immi2910, i see a pattern here PD+5 yrs (our Gurus old saying)

tackle

10-17-2011, 09:39 AM

Congrats! what is your PD?

It is 05/02/2007 as seen here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/member.php?1289-rahil1).

Congrats, Rahil!

Kanmani

10-17-2011, 09:52 AM

immi2910 thank you for the hardwork . I like it .

Rahil enjoy your green life.

nishant2200

10-17-2011, 10:00 AM

Thank you Veni. You made my day.

Also, by when 485 applications should be received by USCIS? Thanks again.

Nov 1st to Nov 31st. If Dec VB does not retrogress, in Dec also and so on. Basically your PD should be current when USCIS receives.

Btw, I dont know what happens if they get on weekend or holiday.

evoori

10-17-2011, 10:13 AM

My situation is similar as of yours... I am filing I-485 on my own.. Employment verification letter and copy of approved I-140 is all you need from employer..

Can i file my I-485 on my own?

Gurus, need some guidance here.

My employer is in the midst of major restructuring and immigration is not something that is on the top of the list during this reorg. As a result, although i have become current during Nov visa bulletin, there is no action taken by my company despite my repeated follow-ups to start 485 process. I have all the documents needed to file I-485 except for employment letter. If i get the employment letter from HR, can i go ahead and file I-485 on my own or do i have to go through a company appointed attorney? Also, by when do i need to file my application - do i have time till Nov 30th or do i need to file before December visa bulletin comes out?

Thanks.

You can file application till end of the month in which your PD is current.. nishant is correct except NOV has 30 days.. :)

Nov 1st to Nov 31st. If Dec VB does not retrogress, in Dec also and so on. Basically your PD should be current when USCIS receives.

Btw, I dont know what happens if they get on weekend or holiday.

nishant2200

10-17-2011, 10:23 AM

Evoori, thank you :)

Btw, ppl doing their own 485 may want to open a new thread and discuss things like format of employment letter and how to file etc. I think even sogaddu is filing on own.

My situation is similar as of yours... I am filing I-485 on my own.. Employment verification letter and copy of approved I-140 is all you need from employer..

You can file application till end of the month in which your PD is current.. nishant is correct except NOV has 30 days.. :)

veni001

10-17-2011, 10:42 AM

Nov 1st to Nov 31st. If Dec VB does not retrogress, in Dec also and so on. Basically your PD should be current when USCIS receives.

Btw, I dont know what happens if they get on weekend or holiday.

Thank you Veni. You made my day.

Also, by when 485 applications should be received by USCIS? Thanks again.

Sandeep,
Nishant is correct your application should receive at USCIS on or between 11/1/11 - 11/30/11, if the dates remain current in December then you will have another month and so on...

soggadu

10-17-2011, 01:20 PM

I received my card in mail on 10/15/ 2011... I am relieved..
thanks to all in this forum Q, Teddy, Veni, Nishant and soggadu.. I wish best of luck to all....

Awesomeeeee oooo raamaaaa.... enjoy the card rahil...please dont question us now whether you have to scan the card or not :-)

soggadu

10-17-2011, 01:22 PM

Evoori, thank you :)

Btw, ppl doing their own 485 may want to open a new thread and discuss things like format of employment letter and how to file etc. I think even sogaddu is filing on own.

Nishant.... i am going in with a lawyer... cant take the pressure of doing it myself, but i know a lot people do it...

Hey also... Any one know the dollar amount to make the checks for? one for me and one for spouse...

mvinayam

10-17-2011, 01:22 PM

Sandeep,
Nishant is correct your application should receive at USCIS on or between 11/1/11 - 11/30/11, if the dates remain current in December then you will have another month and so on...

Gurus,

If there is retrogress which I hope shouldn't happen. Till how far the dates can move back.

Thanks,
mv

soggadu

10-17-2011, 01:27 PM

Gurus,

If there is retrogress which I hope shouldn't happen. Till how far the dates can move back.

Thanks,
mv

everybody is looking forward for a jump forward... i dont think it will retrogress from Nov 1 anytime for ever....is ur real name vinayam? in telugu it means "respect"....

nishant2200

10-17-2011, 01:28 PM

I believe they can hold the line till 15th July 2007 to 15th August 2007.

Gurus,

If there is retrogress which I hope shouldn't happen. Till how far the dates can move back.

Thanks,
mv

nishant2200

10-17-2011, 01:30 PM

Awesomeeeee oooo raamaaaa.... enjoy the card rahil...please dont question us now whether you have to scan the card or not :-)

yes Rahil, many congrats. I still remember the day you expressed happiness on being current, not many days back,and now you are already got it!

It's raining GCs it seems, I am still not satisfied with explanation given by anyone as to the magic being done by CO.

nishant2200

10-17-2011, 01:32 PM

good decision. I always think good to go with lawyer.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=3faf2c1a6855d010VgnVCM10000048f3d6a1RCR D&vgnextchannel=db029c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD

$1070 each.

Ouch.

Nishant.... i am going in with a lawyer... cant take the pressure of doing it myself, but i know a lot people do it...

Hey also... Any one know the dollar amount to make the checks for? one for me and one for spouse...

nishant2200

10-17-2011, 01:33 PM

everybody is looking forward for a jump forward... i dont think it will retrogress from Nov 1 anytime for ever....is ur real name vinayam? in telugu it means "respect"....

In a way that's true, holding at 15th August 2007 is almost equal to holding at Nov 1st 2007 for at least few months until the 485s filed from august to nov start getting ripe for approvals.

username

10-17-2011, 01:34 PM

Nishant.... i am going in with a lawyer... cant take the pressure of doing it myself, but i know a lot people do it...

Hey also... Any one know the dollar amount to make the checks for? one for me and one for spouse...

My attorney said (for me and my wife $1070 x 2) $2,140 -payable to :USCIS
Plus attorney fees payable to him.

TeddyKoochu

10-17-2011, 01:34 PM

Nishant.... i am going in with a lawyer... cant take the pressure of doing it myself, but i know a lot people do it...

Hey also... Any one know the dollar amount to make the checks for? one for me and one for spouse...

$1070 (985 I485 + 85 Biometrics), payable to USCIS. Yes you have to make 2 checks.

whereismygclost

10-17-2011, 01:54 PM

Does $1070 (985 I485 + 85 Biometrics), payable to USCIS include the fees of EAD/AP? Or do we need to pay anything more separately? Finally mera number aaa gaya to file 485...waiting for 01-NOV-2011 ...PD 03-OCT-07.

nishant2200

10-17-2011, 02:31 PM

krishnav

10-17-2011, 03:08 PM

Hello All,

Sorry, I didn't want to ask this question in this thread but didnt get any answers to this question in the other thread.

I had a question about Green Card. Lets say I get my EAD approved and get the card and something happens to the company that sponsored my GC and they close it. What are my options in that case?
Is my whole GC process wasted or am I safe to work for anyone at that point if I use the EAD? Please someone shed some light on this.

I will delete the question once someone answers it.

Thanks.

sandeep11

10-17-2011, 03:13 PM

$1070 for each applicant.

$985 + $85 = $1070 ( this is inclusive of EAD and AP)

Nishant.... i am going in with a lawyer... cant take the pressure of doing it myself, but i know a lot people do it...

Hey also... Any one know the dollar amount to make the checks for? one for me and one for spouse...

mvinayam

10-17-2011, 03:17 PM

everybody is looking forward for a jump forward... i dont think it will retrogress from Nov 1 anytime for ever....is ur real name vinayam? in telugu it means "respect"....

Thanks Soggudu. My real name is Vinaya :) . Hopefully the dates keep moving forward as you have mentioned. We have requested to do a interfile of our I-140 between spouse to our pending I-485 filed on july 2 2007. Donno how long it will take for the interfile process to work so keeping the fingers crossed. Its been a long wait of 12 yrs.

Thanks,
mv

nishant2200

10-17-2011, 03:29 PM

From the day your 485 application is received, 180 days after that, you can use EAD to change to another company on same or similar job duties, as per AC21 rules. Anytime before that, I would like to believe you would be in trouble if the company sponsoring GC is doomed. Now I am not sure as to how USCIS would come to know that your company is bankrupt or laid you off etc. unless they ask for an employment verification letter again, and you can't provide it. In these days when GC is obtained 6-9 months at the most after filing 485, you might get lucky and escape. For July 2007 filers, since it's been a long time, they may ask for fresh employment job offer letter.

Also sometimes, in big corporations, if any doomsday occuring, the legal department tends to cancel I-140s. That might lead to a problem if your 485 is pending.

That is one reason, why one should still maintain H1 if possible, so that it can be used to transfer and GC initiated again with new company.

Hello All,

Sorry, I didn't want to ask this question in this thread but didnt get any answers to this question in the other thread.

I had a question about Green Card. Lets say I get my EAD approved and get the card and something happens to the company that sponsored my GC and they close it. What are my options in that case?
Is my whole GC process wasted or am I safe to work for anyone at that point if I use the EAD? Please someone shed some light on this.

I will delete the question once someone answers it.

Thanks.

evoori

10-17-2011, 03:48 PM

Small correction..
according to instruction for I485 (page 8), the check should be payable to "U.S. Department of Homeland Security". Do NOT shorten the name such as USDHS or DHS.
1070 fees include the fees for EAD/AP and biometrics fees of 85 (985 + 85) and yes it can be paid together (985+85 = 1070) in one check for each applicant.

My attorney said (for me and my wife $1070 x 2) $2,140 -payable to :USCIS
Plus attorney fees payable to him.

krishnav

10-17-2011, 03:49 PM

Thanks Nishant.

Question on silimar lines. Lets say the company was closed but luckily I got my GC before/after that. Would I have issues in future because I did not work for that company after I got my GC. I ask because I read in some forums, including here that
its riskly if we dont work the GC sponsorer atleast for 6-12 months after we get our GC.

Do you think in this case, since the company was closed, I would be ok?

From the day your 485 application is received, 180 days after that, you can use EAD to change to another company on same or similar job duties, as per AC21 rules. Anytime before that, I would like to believe you would be in trouble if the company sponsoring GC is doomed. Now I am not sure as to how USCIS would come to know that your company is bankrupt or laid you off etc. unless they ask for an employment verification letter again, and you can't provide it. In these days when GC is obtained 6-9 months at the most after filing 485, you might get lucky and escape. For July 2007 filers, since it's been a long time, they may ask for fresh employment job offer letter.

Also sometimes, in big corporations, if any doomsday occuring, the legal department tends to cancel I-140s. That might lead to a problem if your 485 is pending.

That is one reason, why one should still maintain H1 if possible, so that it can be used to transfer and GC initiated again with new company.

soggadu

10-17-2011, 04:00 PM

Small correction..
according to instruction for I485, the check should be payable to "U.S. Department of Homeland Security". Do NOT shorten the name such as USDHS or DHS.
1070 fees include the fees for EAD/AP and biometrics fees of 85 (985 + 85) and yes it can be paid together (985+85 = 1070) in one check for each applicant.

Now this is another confusion...just got a mail from lawyer saying check payable to USCIS... abb yeh kya chakkar hein.... paisa kisko doon? I guess it is USCIS as teddy, N and others mentioned...check it again EV...
hey thnx for all who replied for my previous query...

nishant2200

10-17-2011, 04:06 PM

dude please verify with lawyer. This is the most important thing, giving money.

Now this is another confusion...just got a mail from lawyer saying check payable to USCIS... abb yeh kya chakkar hein.... paisa kisko doon? I guess it is USCIS as teddy, N and others mentioned...check it again EV...
hey thnx for all who replied for my previous query...

nishant2200

10-17-2011, 04:09 PM

Ok, so say, company is closed.

1. You got GC before company is closed. You are not in any problem, when time comes for naturalization, you have to show proof that the company got closed, and hence you could not continue in that position. Again a lawyer can say what kind of proof is needed to show that the company got shut down, like news reports, press release, any letter or memo or email sent to employees etc, this comes to my mind. And if your next job was not in similar position, I think you can still explain that because of company closure you were placed in financial problem and had to accept job in another field.
2. You got GC after company is closed. This is tricky one, if anyone else has anything to say here, chime in, else I would ask lawyer. I don't know.

Thanks Nishant.

Question on silimar lines. Lets say the company was closed but luckily I got my GC before/after that. Would I have issues in future because I did not work for that company after I got my GC. I ask because I read in some forums, including here that
its riskly if we dont work the GC sponsorer atleast for 6-12 months after we get our GC.

Do you think in this case, since the company was closed, I would be ok?

evoori

10-17-2011, 04:13 PM

dude please verify with lawyer. This is the most important thing, giving money.
.. and let know too..

http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf
look at page 8..

I think it doesn't matter..

krishnav

10-17-2011, 04:20 PM

Thanks again for your reply. I will check with my attorney and will let you know if I find something from him.

Ok, so say, company is closed.

1. You got GC before company is closed. You are not in any problem, when time comes for naturalization, you have to show proof that the company got closed, and hence you could not continue in that position. Again a lawyer can say what kind of proof is needed to show that the company got shut down, like news reports, press release, any letter or memo or email sent to employees etc, this comes to my mind. And if your next job was not in similar position, I think you can still explain that because of company closure you were placed in financial problem and had to accept job in another field.
2. You got GC after company is closed. This is tricky one, if anyone else has anything to say here, chime in, else I would ask lawyer. I don't know.

kd2008

10-17-2011, 04:21 PM

Now this is another confusion...just got a mail from lawyer saying check payable to USCIS... abb yeh kya chakkar hein.... paisa kisko doon? I guess it is USCIS as teddy, N and others mentioned...check it again EV...
hey thnx for all who replied for my previous query...

Who is your lawyer? Is he/she credible?

Read Page 8 of http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf

You may submit one check or money order for both the application and biometric fees

Make the check or money order payable to U.S. Department of Homeland Security

You do not make a check to USCIS!

gc0907

10-17-2011, 04:25 PM

Even my lawyer asked for check $1070 payable to USCIS

Even I noticed 485 insturctions but I didn't question my attorney on this one.

Now this is another confusion...just got a mail from lawyer saying check payable to USCIS... abb yeh kya chakkar hein.... paisa kisko doon? I guess it is USCIS as teddy, N and others mentioned...check it again EV...
hey thnx for all who replied for my previous query...

knight

10-17-2011, 06:01 PM

I got a copy of the 485 application (that was filed for my spouse on 10/3) from the attorney's office. I just checked that and I see that the check was made payable to "U.S. Department of Homeland Security". Hope this helps!

Now this is another confusion...just got a mail from lawyer saying check payable to USCIS... abb yeh kya chakkar hein.... paisa kisko doon? I guess it is USCIS as teddy, N and others mentioned...check it again EV...
hey thnx for all who replied for my previous query...

Sandeep2011

10-17-2011, 08:05 PM

Nishant, Veni, Evoori,

Thank you very much, this helps a lot. I'll post the list of documents, templates etc soon in a separate thread.

Evoori, thank you :)

Btw, ppl doing their own 485 may want to open a new thread and discuss things like format of employment letter and how to file etc. I think even sogaddu is filing on own.

pch053

10-17-2011, 08:42 PM

Thanks Nishant.

Question on silimar lines. Lets say the company was closed but luckily I got my GC before/after that. Would I have issues in future because I did not work for that company after I got my GC. I ask because I read in some forums, including here that
its riskly if we dont work the GC sponsorer atleast for 6-12 months after we get our GC.

Do you think in this case, since the company was closed, I would be ok?

I myself am somewhat puzzled with the 6 month rule that people (and lawyers) point out with respect to continuing in the same job after getting green card. I came across Ron Gotcher's notion on this issue and he thinks that it is not required to work for 6 months after getting GC:
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2010-9-15/Changing-jobs-before-and-after-green-card-approval.html
I am not sure what to believe here as it seems that lawyers themselves have conflicting opinions. But as nishant pointed out, if for some reason the company closes or one loses his/her job, it is best to keep some documents illustrating the same, so that one can explain his/her case, if reqd later on.

nagana

10-17-2011, 11:18 PM

Vinayam means Humble in Telugu. Respect could also be used.

essenel

10-18-2011, 08:54 AM

Just wanted to say that some members have posted questions in the general immigration thread which seem to have been missed (not been answered). Maybe we should update our bookmarks to go to the main forum or main calculations and predictions thread so that those questions aren't missed and people don't post general questions in this thread :) Just a suggestion :)

kingcaeser

10-18-2011, 09:00 AM

Ok, so say, company is closed.

1. You got GC before company is closed. You are not in any problem, when time comes for naturalization, you have to show proof that the company got closed, and hence you could not continue in that position. Again a lawyer can say what kind of proof is needed to show that the company got shut down, like news reports, press release, any letter or memo or email sent to employees etc, this comes to my mind. And if your next job was not in similar position, I think you can still explain that because of company closure you were placed in financial problem and had to accept job in another field.
2. You got GC after company is closed. This is tricky one, if anyone else has anything to say here, chime in, else I would ask lawyer. I don't know.

Then what is the 180 day rule for? I believe that once you cross 180 days after filing you 485 you can change jobs on AC 21 onto another job with same profile as before. Now after getting the GC, why is it mandatory to work with the employer for more time? Do we have a workaround for this? Gurus please help? I am just waiting for the GC to change my job....

kingcaeser

10-18-2011, 09:03 AM

Also, please tell me what if the company fires me just after I get my GC? Will my GC be revoked?

nishant2200

10-18-2011, 09:04 AM

You missed the context/continuity of the replies. Quoting them all.

From the day your 485 application is received, 180 days after that, you can use EAD to change to another company on same or similar job duties, as per AC21 rules. Anytime before that, I would like to believe you would be in trouble if the company sponsoring GC is doomed. Now I am not sure as to how USCIS would come to know that your company is bankrupt or laid you off etc. unless they ask for an employment verification letter again, and you can't provide it. In these days when GC is obtained 6-9 months at the most after filing 485, you might get lucky and escape. For July 2007 filers, since it's been a long time, they may ask for fresh employment job offer letter.

Also sometimes, in big corporations, if any doomsday occuring, the legal department tends to cancel I-140s. That might lead to a problem if your 485 is pending.

That is one reason, why one should still maintain H1 if possible, so that it can be used to transfer and GC initiated again with new company.

Ok, so say, company is closed.

1. You got GC before company is closed. You are not in any problem, when time comes for naturalization, you have to show proof that the company got closed, and hence you could not continue in that position. Again a lawyer can say what kind of proof is needed to show that the company got shut down, like news reports, press release, any letter or memo or email sent to employees etc, this comes to my mind. And if your next job was not in similar position, I think you can still explain that because of company closure you were placed in financial problem and had to accept job in another field.
2. You got GC after company is closed. This is tricky one, if anyone else has anything to say here, chime in, else I would ask lawyer. I don't know.

I myself am somewhat puzzled with the 6 month rule that people (and lawyers) point out with respect to continuing in the same job after getting green card. I came across Ron Gotcher's notion on this issue and he thinks that it is not required to work for 6 months after getting GC:
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2010-9-15/Changing-jobs-before-and-after-green-card-approval.html
I am not sure what to believe here as it seems that lawyers themselves have conflicting opinions. But as nishant pointed out, if for some reason the company closes or one loses his/her job, it is best to keep some documents illustrating the same, so that one can explain his/her case, if reqd later on.

Then what is the 180 day rule for? I believe that once you cross 180 days after filing you 485 you can change jobs on AC 21 onto another job with same profile as before. Now after getting the GC, why is it mandatory to work with the employer for more time? Do we have a workaround for this? Gurus please help? I am just waiting for the GC to change my job....