EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[murali83]

It won't move but probably brought back to Aug 2007 - the idea being that there will be sufficient porting numbers to absorb the 2800 visas.

Vishnu,

I think it should move a little beyond aug 2007. Until Aug 2007 for EB2-I, there are roughly 1800 pending applications including the 2006 cases. I am ignoring cases prior to 2006 since the numbers are less and they might have some issue to be waiting in the inventory. Now, as for porting, if USCIS decides to gift the 2800 in oct 2012 itself, then porting should not be a concern. The inventory already has them and no more numbers will be added since Eb2-I is now unavailable.

[vizcard]

There are several unknowns but, considering the fact that both EB1 and EB2ROW may have a COD before end of FY2012 and last weeks EB-485 inventory data, i am not expecting EB2I move any further than 15AUG2007 before Q3 of FY 2013.

On the other hand EB2C could move to mid 2008 by Q2 of FY2013.


Veni

Dont you think EB2I should move because of the 2800 that would be available starting Oct 12?

Regards
Nat

I agree there are unknowns but here are my thoughts
- IF Eb1 and EB2ROW finish FY12 without CODs and that's a big IF right now then we will see movement at the end of Q1 FY13 to probably Oct 1, 2007 and Jan 1, 2007 by Q2 FY13. This is also assuming that CO applies QSP which he may choose not to do. Big movements will happen only in the summer (like Venu said).
- I dont think that the EAD renewal issue will have any impact in COD movement. The reason being that for the 2008 folks will need to reapply in the Oct-Nov timeframe and the 2009 folks would need to reapply by Nov- Dec timeframe. No movement will happen before that for sure.

I think in the end, I believe we'll see the same pattern as before the major movements in 2011 - small movements in Q1 and large movements in Q4.

[A_Tech_Softie]

How come EB2-IC becomes 'U' and still the EB3-IC remains available with the specified PD?

In other words, what is the logic behind applying the extra rollover inventory from ROW to EB3-IC instead of EB2-IC?

[qesehmk]

Veni

I think vedu said it very well below. However we all know that a lot of these things are at the discretion of DOS and/or USCIS. So what I said about EB2C is an educated opinion at the best. I can't dare predict that it will become current.

Q,
Even EB2C got 8,337 pending applications with PD before 01MAY2010, which is almost equal to three years regular allocation.


From the latest inventory report, I noticed that EB2 ROW is current in spite of having 11,189 case pending. So based on the same logic, USCIS does not need to clear all 39,577 pending EB2 I cases for the dates to start moving again. On the contrary, USCIS will always be required to keep more buffer of EB2I pending cases as compared to EB2 ROW cases in order to ensure no wastage of visas in any given year.

What do you guys think?
I think you are spot on. In case of ROW USCIS is looking at "Eligible ROW demand that asks for visas in any given month. So although there will be always be 5-12K pending cases, as long as the number of eligible cases is less than ROWEB2's monthly quota - that makes EB2ROW eligible to be called as Current.


Since when this 140,000 quota is put in place? Is there any effort or or plan to introdce any bill in the past or future to increase?

I agree. With PERM, one should get automatic GC. This is what happens in other countries. Atleast with more strict UCIS control, misuse can be avoided.

As far as I remember 140K has always been there.


How come EB2-IC becomes 'U' and still the EB3-IC remains available with the specified PD?

In other words, what is the logic behind applying the extra rollover inventory from ROW to EB3-IC instead of EB2-IC?

As of now DOS doesn't see the possiibility of any further ROW spillover to EB2IC. Which is why EB2IC is U after having well over its limit. As per EB3IC - clearly they are well below their annual consumption rate so they are not U.

[vizcard]

How come EB2-IC becomes 'U' and still the EB3-IC remains available with the specified PD?

In other words, what is the logic behind applying the extra rollover inventory from ROW to EB3-IC instead of EB2-IC?

Nothing of the sort is happening. EB2ROW is C and will remain so until then end of the year (hopefully). If at that time, there is SO, it will come to EB2IC. They have made EB2IC "U" because they don't expect any SO and hence cannot keep a COD. Nothing is going from ROW to EB3 at this time.

[goforgreen]

There are several unknowns but, considering the fact that both EB1 and EB2ROW may have a COD before end of FY2012 and last weeks EB-485 inventory data, i am not expecting EB2I move any further than 15AUG2007 before Q3 of FY 2013.

On the other hand EB2C could move to mid 2008 by Q2 of FY2013.

This is very true ... only hope is like Apr 2011 CO might move the dates otherwise its going to be like last 4 years when movement was only in last quarter.

[tatikonda]

Hi All,

Many of us had hopes HR 3012. With present situation with EB2 I - "U", it is very important that some kind of immigration reform should happen. otherwise Eb2-I will be new EB3.

Having said that, I am crossing my fingers on Senate Bill # S.3185, Republican Senator John Cornyn of Texas Introduced a Bill in the Senate Yesterday to Eliminate 55,000 Diversity Visa Replaced by STEM Foreign Workers.

Unlike HR 3012, This bill is introduced in senate first, which is critical house.
Also, Unlike HR 3012, This bill may not have opposition from immigration communities.

http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-s3185/show

Note : some web sites reported bill # 3835 but it appears to be incorrect.

[A_Tech_Softie]

By: U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary’s Immigration, Refugees, and Border Security Subcommittee

Sen. John Cornyn's Website link for the new bill:
http://www.cornyn.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?p=InNews&ContentRecord_id=b7883ec9-d2bc-421f-95f5-8658fc6df914&ContentType_id=b94acc28-404a-4fc6-b143-a9e15bf92da4&f6c645c7-9e4a-4947-8464-a94cacb4ca65&Group_id=bf378025-1557-49c1-8f08-c5df1c4313a4

Sen. John Cornyn's Website link for the STAR Act:
http://www.cornyn.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?p=InNews&ContentRecord_id=4ee3c71b-ea68-45bf-8caa-e7945d5b1357&ContentType_id=b94acc28-404a-4fc6-b143-a9e15bf92da4&f6c645c7-9e4a-4947-8464-a94cacb4ca65&Group_id=bf378025-1557-49c1-8f08-c5df1c4313a4

STAR Act (PDF):
http://www.cornyn.senate.gov/public/?a=Files.Serve&File_id=81d8907f-d05e-41fb-a4af-535ae95f39ed

[billikoot]

In the same vein as imdeng's post I had a question regarding the primary applicant's position. I have an EAD now and will probably continue in the same company as am happily termed "No Flight Risk" with the lowest increments possible.

What does the future hold? Let us say a person like myself wants to change company after 180 days on the AC rule or another person newly greened wants to change company after getting GC . Do we still need to continue in our current designations - a manager to a managerial role in the new company? Or can we aspire to be a Director in the new firm? How does GC being generated for future employment curtail your professional growth plans? Also, how long into the future do you need to continue in your current GC designated role?

Thanks for your answers
B

[veni001]

In the same vein as imdeng's post I had a question regarding the primary applicant's position. I have an EAD now and will probably continue in the same company as am happily termed "No Flight Risk" with the lowest increments possible.

What does the future hold? Let us say a person like myself wants to change company after 180 days on the AC rule or another person newly greened wants to change company after getting GC . Do we still need to continue in our current designations - a manager to a managerial role in the new company? Or can we aspire to be a Director in the new firm? How does GC being generated for future employment curtail your professional growth plans? Also, how long into the future do you need to continue in your current GC designated role?

Thanks for your answers
B

billikoot,

If you want to switch employer using AC21 then your job should be same or similar position, once you receive you GC then there is no such requirement.

[vizcard]

In the same vein as imdeng's post I had a question regarding the primary applicant's position. I have an EAD now and will probably continue in the same company as am happily termed "No Flight Risk" with the lowest increments possible.

What does the future hold? Let us say a person like myself wants to change company after 180 days on the AC rule or another person newly greened wants to change company after getting GC . Do we still need to continue in our current designations - a manager to a managerial role in the new company? Or can we aspire to be a Director in the new firm? How does GC being generated for future employment curtail your professional growth plans? Also, how long into the future do you need to continue in your current GC designated role?

Thanks for your answers
B

You can changed jobs on AC21 if the type of work is same or similar. Titles don't matter - the work content matters. Think about it- the folks who got EAD in 2007 but are still waiting for their GC 5 yrs later - they would have gotten promotions along the way (hopefully !)

When you get a GC, there are no restrictions on what you can or cannot do.

[bvsamrat]

This is where it does not make sense. FYI EB3 when issued to an applicant suited to less than 5 years experience, when actually granted GC after 10 years is supposed to work in same position with same salary or designation(Likewise EB2 say with wait of 5 years).

Then why any company would take a risk in promoting/altering the job description. I have heard of cases where the employers are told by lawers not to do this (or will be billed with new applications and tons of paper work). This is also true that in small non IT firms, where employers need international talent, but are scared of tedious and legal paper work.

In a high tech and highly democratic country, why nobody is objecting to this. May be this is still appealing to people who do not care or the alternatives are worst than this.




billikoot,

If you want to switch employer using AC21 then your job should be same or similar position, once you receive you GC then there is no such requirement.

[veni001]

This is where it does not make sense. FYI EB3 when issued to an applicant suited to less than 5 years experience, when actually granted GC after 10 years is supposed to work in same position with same salary or designation(Likewise EB2 say with wait of 5 years).

Then why any company would take a risk in promoting/altering the job description. I have heard of cases where the employers are told by lawers not to do this (or will be billed with new applications and tons of paper work). This is also true that in small non IT firms, where employers need international talent, but are scared of tedious and legal paper work.

In a high tech and highly democratic country, why nobody is objecting to this. May be this is still appealing to people who do not care or the alternatives are worst than this.

bvsamrat,

We like it or not it part of the game!

[bvsamrat]

That is exactly the point and it is apparent that some type of immigration rule changes are much needed.
May be HR3012 would do to some extent. I also think that EB catagory needs to be revamped for so called skilled workers in USA - to be more fair and equal. May be the big and cash rich IT companies will do some thing in this regards as they would be main affected ones and will eventually loose if they fail to attract the best.


bvsamrat,

We like it or not it part of the game!

[vizcard]

This is where it does not make sense. FYI EB3 when issued to an applicant suited to less than 5 years experience, when actually granted GC after 10 years is supposed to work in same position with same salary or designation(Likewise EB2 say with wait of 5 years).

Then why any company would take a risk in promoting/altering the job description. I have heard of cases where the employers are told by lawers not to do this (or will be billed with new applications and tons of paper work). This is also true that in small non IT firms, where employers need international talent, but are scared of tedious and legal paper work.

In a high tech and highly democratic country, why nobody is objecting to this. May be this is still appealing to people who do not care or the alternatives are worst than this.

There is no requirement to be at the same position or salary. The role (not to be confused with job title) has to be similar. So you cannot go from R&D to Marketing but you can probably go from R&D to Product Development. You can also go from Manager - R&D to Director - R&D. The only red flags occur when you go to a seemingly different role and when your salaries are lower than PERM.

This is a classic situation where rumors and misconceptions result in bad behavior from all parties - lawyers, employers and employees.

[qesehmk]

Additionally - you can grow in the same role without the need of AC21. So analyst - manager -director - VP .... is just fine .... as long the basic role remains same but simply evolves over time.


There is no requirement to be at the same position or salary. The role (not to be confused with job title) has to be similar. So you cannot go from R&D to Marketing but you can probably go from R&D to Product Development. You can also go from Manager - R&D to Director - R&D. The only red flags occur when you go to a seemingly different role and when your salaries are lower than PERM.

This is a classic situation where rumors and misconceptions result in bad behavior from all parties - lawyers, employers and employees.

[tatikonda]

Hi All,

Do you guys know,

1) How many visas (DV Lottery GC) were given in FY2011.
2) Are they utilizing to their full capacity (55k Visa)
3) If not, is there a Spill Over rule..

Thanks
Tatikonda

[A_Tech_Softie]

S.3185 was referred to the committee where all the awesome Senators are "Ranking" members. This bill has been filed in 110th, 111th, and now in 112th Congress. I wouldn't read too much into it unless the committee approves the bill and sends it for a vote.

The primary difference being that this bill in 112th Congress was filed as a Senate bill instead of a House bill (H.R. *) filed before.

[qesehmk]

Entire immigration has as much or more political objectives as economic ones.

So DV is really a tool to ensure political diversity .... which then becomes a useful tool to create Karzai's who can go back and rule their countries at the behest of their US masters.

My 2 political cents on this one.

p.s. - No wonder India and China and all the wester European countries are excluded from it. Just check the list who is eligible and you can see what I am saying. But I am afraid .... I am digressing from the EB immigration discussion --- so this will be my last post on this topic on this thread.


I highly doubt if there is a single visa spilled over from DV. There are 55K GCs given out in this program and unless worldwide, less number of people are applying, there won't be a spillover. The chances of < 55K people applying are ZERO because conditions are bad almost everywhere on this planet. It is sometimes shocking how humanity has achieved so little despite all this amazing technology, but it's a subject of a debate on different day.

I came to know 2 different families who immigrated to the US during the past 12 months through DV - this is in addition to 1 of my friends from my grad school who won the green card through DV lottery as well. The 2 families we came to know became close friends of ours. A few observations there: Both the families are from the former Eastern bloc countries, and the wives have very poor command on English. Their husbands are stuck on low paying jobs, and their kids (1 and 2 respectively) are on the food stamps and get their insurance on the medicare. They also get almost 30% off their rent in prime locations because of the "affordable housing" program run by our government in red ink.

If you really think about this, let's understand the enormous ridicule in this system: The US lets in 55K people each year who will be dependent on the social safety net from day 1 and contribute almost no federal taxes (no fault of theirs...those families are highly educated, but unfortunately, solid command on Russian and other such languages, knowledge of history and arts are not in demand when competing against locals here), while more than 100K+ highly paid immigrants are stuck in the system for over a decade.

You know what? These people simply log on the Internet, and apply blindly in the DV program, and suddenly, one fine day, someone gets lucky, gets called for an interview, and they just come here. If they struggle, there are all kinds of programs to help them out. And H1B folks will pay the tab gladly.

Although we made friends with the said families, I could not help but be disturbed and angry at this deep institutional insanity. I don't question the fairness, because ultimately, all of us are immigrants in this host country. But I question the policy from the perspective of the host country - would they pick up the tab of so many people coming here on DV (and possibly F4 - I don't think citizen brothers and sisters really would pay for their immigrating siblings) while there are 20%+ jobless and the government in trillions in the red?

Maybe I am being sanctimonious and inflating the worth of H1Bs in this country - after all, we are accused of job displacement and wage suppressant among others. But I have yet to see an H1B worker (even after getting GC, citizenship) ever relying on social safety nets during their productive working life.

I hope sanity prevails and at least temporarily, DV is suspended and at least some visas are diverted to EB categories.

I think S.3185 is a great bill, and we should really push hard for it. I am sure entire EB community can support this bill without fighting bitterly like the last time. I also do not think we are being unfair to any other potential immigrant, because unlike the other categories, the DV category has NO APPLICANT with a priority date. And at least some of them have an option of immigrating in FB.

[usernameisnotvalid]

Allowing Employment Authorization for H-4 Dependent Spouses

By Felicia Escobar, Senior Policy Director for Immigration

Thank you for signing the petition suggesting that the Obama Administration extend the availability of employment authorization to H-4 dependent spouses of principal H-1B nonimmigrants.

The H-1B nonimmigrant classification allows a qualified alien to seek admission to the United States on a temporary basis to work in his or her field of expertise. We appreciate the important economic contributions H-1B nonimmigrant workers make to the United States and support using the H-1B visa program as a way to fill the need for skilled workers when American employees are unable to meet the needs of employers. The Obama Administration has also recognized that focusing solely on the H-1B program would not be an effective long-term strategy to address worker shortages in critical growth industries. That's why we are developing robust strategies for improving our Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) education pipeline and fostering innovation.

On January 31, 2012, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced a series of future administrative reforms -- in recognition of the one year anniversary of the White House Startup Initiative -- including reform aimed at addressing the particular issue you raised in your petition. Specifically, DHS is preparing a proposed rule that would allow employment authorization for H-4 dependent spouses of the subset of H-1B visa holders who are being sponsored by their employers for permanent residence and who have been authorized by Congress to remain in the United States until their petitions to adjust status have been adjudicated. This proposed change is an important step toward realizing the 21st Century immigration system envisioned by the President, and it reflects the Administration's continuing commitment to attracting and retaining talented and hardworking immigrants.

[ssrini]

What exactly this excerpt of the statement means "who have been authorized by Congress to remain in the United States until their petitions to adjust status have been adjudicated"

Is it the person should have approved I-140 or applied for 485?

[qesehmk]

Its the latter srini.
What exactly this excerpt of the statement means "who have been authorized by Congress to remain in the United States until their petitions to adjust status have been adjudicated"

Is it the person should have approved I-140 or applied for 485?

[usernameisnotvalid]

Q, in that case spouse gets an EAD card and can work. Right?


Its the latter srini.

[kkruna]

You apply for EAD for your dependents with 485 anyway so what benefit does this idea bring?


Q, in that case spouse gets an EAD card and can work. Right?

[qesehmk]

That already exists. So if you file 485 - the spouse gets an EAD along with you.

I guess the change DHS is working on right now - needs to be clarified further. Are they talking about EAD for spouse even when 485 is not filed but 140 is cleared? You may want to ask that person from DHS who responded to you.
Q, in that case spouse gets an EAD card and can work. Right?

[vishnu]

Q - in the rule register, it says eads to be granted to h1 spouses if the h1 has used ac 21 provisions... one of the provisions of ac 21 is extending h1 visa beyond the initial term of 3 + 3 years based on approved labor and 1-140 petitions...

[qesehmk]

vishnu - can you sight the rule register? Is it something that is already in place or being proposed?
Q - in the rule register, it says eads to be granted to h1 spouses if the h1 has used ac 21 provisions... one of the provisions of ac 21 is extending h1 visa beyond the initial term of 3 + 3 years based on approved labor and 1-140 petitions...

[vizcard]

This will no doubt help ppl but it is another band aid. Everyone who falls in those categories don't have EADs because they couldn't apply for 485 and that's because the dates are not current. Dates don't move because of visa quotas and limited numbers. They really need to address the heart of the problem.

[kkruna]

If it is EAD for dependent, is it EAD for the primary applicant as well? That would be interesting! If it does not mean EAD for primary applicant but only for dependents, that would be ironical. Am I missing something?


vishnu - can you sight the rule register? Is it something that is already in place or being proposed?

[vishnu]

Firstly, its all at proposed rule stage...so we must wait for it to be finalized. It is EAD for dependents as the primary already are working for their petitioning employer via the H1 visa. So it would be similar to the L1 and L2s getting EAD

[narendarrao]

Here is the link for the rule.

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201110&RIN=1615-AB92

[abcx13]

Here is the link for the rule.

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201110&RIN=1615-AB92

I don't understand what this rule fixes. Don't derivative applicants like spouses already get EADs after filing I485? And I think one of the posts upthread mentioned that this rule only gives work authorization to applicants who've filed a 485. So what does it do?

I find the H1B system ridiculous when it comes to spouses. The US is probably the only country which doesn't let the spouses of work visa holders work! Absolutely moronic.

[vizcard]

This is pre-485.

Consider a H1B worker with -
- an approved(or pending?) I140 AND
- is past his/her 6 yr limit AND
- has not applied for I485 (because dates are not current).

This rule will grant spouses of those individuals work authorization. Hope that clears things up.

What I don't quite understand is the interpretation of "begun the process of seeking lawful permanent residence status". Does that mean I-140 applied or I-140 approved?

[usernameisnotvalid]

It should start when PERM is approved (or filed) because then only primary applicant can live here indefinitely (1 year extension) until his/her case is adjudicated.

[vizcard]

It should start when PERM is approved (or filed) because then only primary applicant can live here indefinitely (1 year extension) until his/her case is adjudicated.

I'm not sure if your comment was philosophical or related to this rule. However, PERM is with the DOL and not the USCIS (DHS). Due to this the USCIS won't have someone in the "system" until the I140 is applied for. Since H1B, H4 and I-140 are all within the USCIS system, they can be tied together through the SSN (or some other unique ID).

[usernameisnotvalid]

Actually that makes sense! Thanks.


I'm not sure if your comment was philosophical or related to this rule. However, PERM is with the DOL and not the USCIS (DHS). Due to this the USCIS won't have someone in the "system" until the I140 is applied for. Since H1B, H4 and I-140 are all within the USCIS system, they can be tied together through the SSN (or some other unique ID).

[abcx13]

This is pre-485.

Consider a H1B worker with -
- an approved(or pending?) I140 AND
- is past his/her 6 yr limit AND
- has not applied for I485 (because dates are not current).

This rule will grant spouses of those individuals work authorization. Hope that clears things up.

What I don't quite understand is the interpretation of "begun the process of seeking lawful permanent residence status". Does that mean I-140 applied or I-140 approved?

I see. But you HAVE to be beyond the 6 yr limit? Isn't the first condition sufficient to allow the spouse to work until dates become current?

[qesehmk]

Friends, Header updated. After looking at EB1 and EB2ROW and EB2IC demand in 485 inventory report - I am quite bullish on rest of the year 2012. I think the dates must move forward - quite possibly upto mid-2008 by Sep 2012.

p.s. - I also think i was wrong on EB1 and EB2ROW demand. I think all kinds of visa demand has slowed down significantly. So howsoever EB1 and EB2ROW may have been underserved in Q1 and Q2 - they certainly are not going to utilize their full quota.

[geevikram]

Friends, Header updated. After looking at EB1 and EB2ROW and EB2IC demand in 485 inventory report - I am quite bullish on rest of the year 2012. I think the dates must move forward - quite possibly upto mid-2008 by Sep 2012.

p.s. - I also think i was wrong on EB1 and EB2ROW demand. I think all kinds of visa demand has slowed down significantly. So howsoever EB1 and EB2ROW may have been underserved in Q1 and Q2 - they certainly are not going to utilize their full quota.

Thanks Q for some positive news, but what has changed between yest, when it was all gloom and doom and today? I (PD Jul 2008) was hoping to receive my GC sometime next year based on all the number crunching that ppl have been doing all over the net.(**, trackitt and here)

[bvsamrat]

It sounds moronic, but may not be in some peoples view point. As H1B has got some quota allocated and applicable to special skilled areas where local talent is not available. Introducing new people with unknown skilled areas may rob the local jobs. That would be the intent. L2 can get EAD. But L1 is for high level executives who require some incentives and has a lower time limit. H1B is a temperory occupation having 6 years limit.

But I agree on one point. Not having a SSN for 6-10 years makes H4 a non entity.


I don't understand what this rule fixes. Don't derivative applicants like spouses already get EADs after filing I485? And I think one of the posts upthread mentioned that this rule only gives work authorization to applicants who've filed a 485. So what does it do?

I find the H1B system ridiculous when it comes to spouses. The US is probably the only country which doesn't let the spouses of work visa holders work! Absolutely moronic.

[qesehmk]

Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile :)


Thanks Q for some positive news, but what has changed between yest, when it was all gloom and doom and today? I (PD Jul 2008) was hoping to receive my GC sometime next year based on all the number crunching that ppl have been doing all over the net.(**, trackitt and here)

[raj888]

Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile :)

Q,

The #'s(demand) on the inventory report published last year (May 2011) were around 1K for EB1 and around 200 for EB2WW. By the above logic, EB2IC should have received much more SOFAD then what it did last year.. Is there any reason why this logic may not be applicable for last year?

[murali83]

Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile :)

Thats great Q. But I would like to ask a administrative question this regard. Lets say CO sees 10K unused visas at the end of the year. But since we have been bombarded with statements that EB2I-C dates will only move in Oct 2012, can he give 10K visas from this year for EB2 I-C in Oct 2012 and still balance the books or if he does not use them by Sep 2012, will the 10K visas go a waste?

Cheers

[bvsamrat]

My 2 cents. By this year end it should touch a part of 2009. Reason. To adjudicate all 2008 may not be easy as always there are applications taking more time to check and clear. Hence need to generate more demand

Hence it is logical to open a greater slot and see who can get through. That way ensures and generate demand for supply

But 2 cent only!


Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile :)

[Mavrick]

Q,

Happy to see this information coming from you. My only question is - Why didn't CO foresee this spill over and simply said there won't be any more EB2IC GC's for FY2012? To my knowledge, CO tries to project this image that he is open and honest about things - with you saying this it really undervalues CO's comments.


Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile :)

[vizcard]

I see. But you HAVE to be beyond the 6 yr limit? Isn't the first condition sufficient to allow the spouse to work until dates become current?

That's what the proposed rule states.

I'm not going to comment on the stupidilty of that pre-condition though :P

[evoori]

Friends, Header updated. After looking at EB1 and EB2ROW and EB2IC demand in 485 inventory report - I am quite bullish on rest of the year 2012. I think the dates must move forward - quite possibly upto mid-2008 by Sep 2012.

p.s. - I also think i was wrong on EB1 and EB2ROW demand. I think all kinds of visa demand has slowed down significantly. So howsoever EB1 and EB2ROW may have been underserved in Q1 and Q2 - they certainly are not going to utilize their full quota.

Q,
Regarding your second point on header
“Q1+Q2 didn’t seem to have allocated more visas than normal. This is actually based on trackitt trend and how much 2007 and 2008 is approved vs outstanding.”
I did some number crunching..
Lets see only I-485 inventory released in Oct 2011 and latest May 2012.. I am looking at EB2IC pending cases for PD in 2007 only. Lets divide 2007 in two parts first ‘till July 2007 (fiasco one)’ and second after July 2007..

EB2IC inventory between Jan 2007 to July 2007 in Oct inventory = 5500 + 3300 =8800
EB2IC inventory between Jan 2007 to July 2007 in May inventory = 1300 + 300 = 1600

So, GC issued with PD between Jan 2007 to July 2007 = 8800 – 1600 = 7200 GC (Assuming no PWMB filing, otherwise it will be 7200 + PWMB GCs issued + CP cases ).

For August 2007 to Dec 2007, if we assume same density as of 2008.. (i.e. 1500/month)..

# of EB2IC I-485 filed between August 2007 to Dec 2007 = 1500 * 5 = 7500
Pending 485 for EB2IC between August 2007 to Dec 2007 in May inventory = 4350

So, GC issued with PD between August 2007 to Dec 2007 = 3150.

Total EB2IC GC issued for 2007 PDs = 7200 + 3150 = 10350. (+ PWMB + CP cases + porting).

They have already issued more than regular quota. Remember this is for 2007 only. So unless they get huge spill over, the chances for advancement looks grim. Don’t shoot me for being pessimistic, I am just trying to crunch some numbers.

[Spectator]

I've been out of the Country for a couple of weeks and may have limited ability to contribute for a further couple of weeks.

No sooner had I left than all sorts of data was published.

I've tried to follow the conversation while I was away.

One thing that didn't seem to be discussed was the differing apparent OR for China and India in EB2 based on the Inventory figures.

I only really looked at 2009 figures, since 2008 has had approvals and 2010 may not be complete.

China - 2009 Inventory = 2,913
China - 2009 PERM = 2,301

EB2-C 2009 OR = 1.27

India - 2009 Inventory = 13,429
India - 2009 PERM = 16,577

EB2-I 2009 OR = 0.81

Clearly, this could be for a variety of factors, but I would imagine the major factor is probably large numbers of EB2-NIW for China, which would not be reflected in the PERM data, and possibly a slightly lower attrition rate.

For PD2010 the derived OR to date based on the Inventory is China = 1.53 (975/637) and India = 0.88 (4,912/5,554)

It may be something to bear in mind in the future.

[qesehmk]

First I will explain some of this logic and then will address individual questions below:

If you look at trackitt data based on 485 filings; this is what you get:

Category--- 2012 FY --- 2011 YTD ---- 2011 FY Projected ---- % Change
EB2ROW ---- 605 ---------- 244 ------------ 366 -------------- -40%
EB1C ------ 247 -----------138 ------------ 207 -------------- -16%
EB1B -------123 ----------- 65 ------------- 97.5 ------------ -21%
EB1A------- 108 ----------- 56-------------- 84 -------------- -22%




So -40% reduction in EB2ROW and -20% reduction in EB1.

Consider that last year EB2 overall received 68K!!! So this year if anything that should increase. Even if that doesn't increase and EB2IC receive what they received last year (i.e. approx 30K), it should take the EB2IC dates into mid 2008 by itself. That's the rationale.

What has been allocated this year so far and what remains etc is all good. But step and back and look at this picture. Unless there is some other suprise in store e.g. USCIS clearing out entire EB1 or EB2ROW backlog - I think we shold be comfortable with the big picture and keep faith in movement. Clearing of backlog won't happen for the simple reason that 4-5 months of inventory always stays because of USCIS processing times. That's almost 12-18K for EB1 and EB2ROW combined.


Q,
Regarding your second point on header
“Q1+Q2 didn’t seem to have allocated more visas than normal. This is actually based on trackitt trend and how much 2007 and 2008 is approved vs outstanding.” I did some number crunching..
Lets see only I-485 inventory released in Oct 2011 and latest May 2012.. I am looking at EB2IC pending cases for PD in 2007 only. Lets divide 2007 in two parts first ‘till July 2007 (fiasco one)’ and second after July 2007..
EB2IC inventory between Jan 2007 to July 2007 in Oct inventory = 5500 + 3300 =8800
EB2IC inventory between Jan 2007 to July 2007 in May inventory = 1300 + 300 = 1600
So, they have issued 8800 – 1600 = 7200 GC for Jan 2007 to July 2007 people. (Assuming no PWMB filing, otherwise it will be 7200 + PWMB GCs issued + CP cases ).
For August 2007 to Dec 2007, if we assume same density as of 2008..
# of EB2IC I-485 filed between August 2007 to Dec 2007 = 1500 * 5 = 7500
Pending 485 for EB2IC between August 2007 to Dec 2007 in May inventory = 4350
So, GC issued with PD between August 2007 to Dec 2007 = 3150.
Total EB2IC GC issued for 2007 PDs = 7200 + 3150 = 10350. (+ PWMB + CP cases + porting).
They have already issued more than regular quota. Remember this is for 2007 only. So unless they get huge spill over, the chances for advancement looks grim. Don’t shoot me for being pessimistic, I am just trying to crunch some numbers.

Yes you are right. In fact you also need to add approx 5K for 2008. So total Q1 / Q2 allocation is at least 15K. But that still leaves EB2IC with another 15K which could easily move the dates into 2008 mid.


Q,

Happy to see this information coming from you. My only question is - Why didn't CO foresee this spill over and simply said there won't be any more EB2IC GC's for FY2012? To my knowledge, CO tries to project this image that he is open and honest about things - with you saying this it really undervalues CO's comments.
We have a decent history of proving him wrong. My experience is that he gives a story to suit his/DHS's/USCIS's decisions at that point of time. So not to trust or mistrust him - but fundamentally if we need a clear picture we need to go by data rather than word of a man.


Thats great Q. But I would like to ask a administrative question this regard. Lets say CO sees 10K unused visas at the end of the year. But since we have been bombarded with statements that EB2I-C dates will only move in Oct 2012, can he give 10K visas from this year for EB2 I-C in Oct 2012 and still balance the books or if he does not use them by Sep 2012, will the 10K visas go a waste?

Cheers
murali - unfortunately they are capable of doing anything and nobody will even question them. But I will bet they will not let visas go waste since that is one of their mandates.


Q,

The #'s(demand) on the inventory report published last year (May 2011) were around 1K for EB1 and around 200 for EB2WW. By the above logic, EB2IC should have received much more SOFAD then what it did last year.. Is there any reason why this logic may not be applicable for last year?
raj yours is the toughest question and I saved it for last! You are actually right. The only two things I can say in response - not sure it helps you - is that A) the inventory report has steadily become much more accurate over time. So the numbers now are more trustworthy than in past B) The visa allocation so far is not unusual if quarterly spillover was applied. Coupled this with 40% EB2ROW reduction and 20% EB1 reduction and prior years EB2IC utilization points finger to another 15K allocation for EB2IC. So how could they NOT move dates?

[qesehmk]

Welcome back Spec! People are eager to hear from you!

The timing of data publication was no coincidence ;) DoS and USCIS are tracking your every move - oink oink.


I've been out of the Country for a couple of weeks and may have limited ability to contribute for a further couple of weeks.

No sooner had I left than all sorts of data was published.

[vizcard]

Q - I dont get 1 thing.

In the inventory data, EB1 has 2010-2012 inventory of ~15K. If they are current why is there so much inventory and if this is legit wouldnt this eat into the addln 15K SOFAD you mentioned above?

[Spectator]

Welcome back Spec! People are eager to hear from you!

The timing of data publication was no coincidence ;) DoS and USCIS are tracking your every move - oink oink.Q,

It felt like that. The USCIS Inventory figures were very revealing and not particularly good news, considering the size of the backlog to be carried forward to FY2013.

I have a different take on the future of FY2012.

I believe that EB2-IC has already received around 23-25k visas to date, which means 18-20k spillover has already been used and has to come from somewhere.

I have never found the USCIS Inventory particularly useful to predict future usage of visas for Categories / Countries that are Current. It is quite volatile as I-140 are approved and the corresponding I-485 are added to the Inventory.

EB1 seems to be relentlessly heading for 35-36k visa usage. I was surprised that CO mentioned the possibility of a Cut Off Date at the end of the year for EB1 in the June VB notes. That would mean that not only had the 40k EB1 allocation been used, but also any spare visas from EB4/EB5. I don't think that is likely, but it speaks of fairly high visa consumption from EB1.

Based on the 68k EB2 figure for FY2011, EB2-non IC must have used at least 30k last year out of an allocation of 34.4k.

Trackitt numbers for FY2012 appear to be holding up compared to last year. Currently, they are slightly higher than this point last year.

I have a suspicion that the spare visas from EB4 last year is an anomaly that won't be repeated.

So if 20k spillover has to be accounted for already and we say that EB5 gives 5k and EB1 gives 5k, then EB2-non IC would have to contribute 10k. That means total EB2-non IC approvals shouldn't be higher than 24.4k.

For me, that doesn't seem plausible. I see retrogression of EB2-non IC as an inevitable certainty at some point.

That means there will not be any further visas available to EB2-IC and the Cut Off Dates will remain Unavailable until the start of FY2013 in October 2012.

[vedu]

The USCIS dashboard has been updated for March 2012. March, 12 I-140 receipts (4,836) are very low as compared to March, 11 I-140 receipts (8,739). Additionally, the total number of pending I-140 applications are very low (13,634) and heading towards an all time low number.

I am definitely bullish on Year, 2013.

[geevikram]

The USCIS dashboard has been updated for March 2012. March, 12 I-140 receipts (4,836) are very low as compared to March, 11 I-140 receipts (8,739). Additionally, the total number of pending I-140 applications are very low (13,634) and heading towards an all time low number.

I am definitely bullish on Year, 2013.

But aren't we in May now? This info is probably upto Feb 2012. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Mavrick]

How does low I-140 numbers in March 2012 have an effect on FY2013?


The USCIS dashboard has been updated for March 2012. March, 12 I-140 receipts (4,836) are very low as compared to March, 11 I-140 receipts (8,739). Additionally, the total number of pending I-140 applications are very low (13,634) and heading towards an all time low number.

I am definitely bullish on Year, 2013.

[vedu]

Well, I am not looking at any particular month. I am looking at all the available data (monthly demand numbers/ pending I-485 inventory report/ USCIS dashboard) from a macro perspective. I formulated my opinion based on a consistent trend that I see in these numbers. For example, an year ago, when pending I-140 inventory on the dashboard was at its peak, everybody argued how it was going to hurt us in FY2012. Now that it is at its lowest point, shouldn't we argue for the opposite effect in the upcoming year?

I didn't say anything about the remainder of FY 2012, because we have already received most of the spill over, and not much can be changed until FY2013 begins.


How does low I-140 numbers in March 2012 have an effect on FY2013?

[Mavrick]

I agree with you on pending I-485 numbers, it doesn't look bad. But, at this point I would say we have few known variables - CO wants us to keep guessing :)


Well, I am not looking at any particular month. I am looking at all the available data (monthly demand numbers/ pending I-485 inventory report/ USCIS dashboard) from a macro perspective. I formulated my opinion based on a consistent trend that I see in these numbers. For example, an year ago, when pending I-140 inventory on the dashboard was at its peak, everybody argued how it was going to hurt us in FY2012. Now that it is at its lowest point, shouldn't we argue for the opposite effect in the upcoming year?

I didn't say anything about the remainder of FY 2012, because we have already received most of the spill over, and not much can be changed until FY2013 begins.

[mesan123]

Spec,

What is your analysis on date movement for FY2013, i meant where do you think FY2013 will end up at


Q,

It felt like that. The USCIS Inventory figures were very revealing and not particularly good news, considering the size of the backlog to be carried forward to FY2013.

I have a different take on the future of FY2012.

I believe that EB2-IC has already received around 23-25k visas to date, which means 18-20k spillover has already been used and has to come from somewhere.

I have never found the USCIS Inventory particularly useful to predict future usage of visas for Categories / Countries that are Current. It is quite volatile as I-140 are approved and the corresponding I-485 are added to the Inventory.

EB1 seems to be relentlessly heading for 35-36k visa usage. I was surprised that CO mentioned the possibility of a Cut Off Date at the end of the year for EB1 in the June VB notes. That would mean that not only had the 40k EB1 allocation been used, but also any spare visas from EB4/EB5. I don't think that is likely, but it speaks of fairly high visa consumption from EB1.

Based on the 68k EB2 figure for FY2011, EB2-non IC must have used at least 30k last year out of an allocation of 34.4k.

Trackitt numbers for FY2012 appear to be holding up compared to last year. Currently, they are slightly higher than this point last year.

I have a suspicion that the spare visas from EB4 last year is an anomaly that won't be repeated.

So if 20k spillover has to be accounted for already and we say that EB5 gives 5k and EB1 gives 5k, then EB2-non IC would have to contribute 10k. That means total EB2-non IC approvals shouldn't be higher than 24.4k.

For me, that doesn't seem plausible. I see retrogression of EB2-non IC as an inevitable certainty at some point.

That means there will not be any further visas available to EB2-IC and the Cut Off Dates will remain Unavailable until the start of FY2013 in October 2012.

[harapatta2012]

Spec,

"EB1 seems to be releentlessly heading for 35-36k visa usage."
I see in EB1 all, the total pending now 15k, monthly usage is 2k max, that would total max 24k, even if it goes t 2.5 per month now.
How did you come up with 35-36k number?

""I have never found the USCIS Inventory particularly useful to predict future usage of visas for Categories / Countries that are Current. It is quite volatile as I-140 are approved and the corresponding I-485 are added to the Inventory""
EB2 non-IC average 2 months - 700/month.It is fair to assume that feb, march 2012 cases are pending and accounted for. So average should be true now and not change.
That brings EB2 non -IC to 12k max/yr, but lets assume 2X factor, still 24k/yr.

""I believe that EB2-IC has already received around 23-25k visas to date""
-This is speculation or based on trackitt data? Could be true.

I see that your gut feeling is based on CO comments and popular sentiment. Without much thought, I can also see Oct 2012 as when movement would occure, But Q has good argument. I am bit biased to optimisstic view, but there is good reasoning too.

Spec, what do you see movement in fiscal yr 2013?

[Spectator]

Spec,

"EB1 seems to be relentlessly heading for 35-36k visa usage."
I see in EB1 all, the total pending now 15k, monthly usage is 2k max, that would total max 24k, even if it goes t 2.5 per month now.
How did you come up with 35-36k number?
After adjusting for the higher number of EB1 applications in Trackitt, EB1 appears to have reached about 21.5k approvals to date (c. 2.7k/ month). See here. (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?181-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2012-vs.-FY2011) If this rate continues, total approvals would be 35k.


""I have never found the USCIS Inventory particularly useful to predict future usage of visas for Categories / Countries that are Current. It is quite volatile as I-140 are approved and the corresponding I-485 are added to the Inventory""
EB2 non-IC average 2 months - 700/month.It is fair to assume that feb, march 2012 cases are pending and accounted for. So average should be true now and not change.
That brings EB2 non -IC to 12k max/yr, but lets assume 2X factor, still 24k/yr.
Based on FY2010 approvals, EB2-ROW appears to have reached about 16.8k to date (c. 2.1k / month). If the same rate continues, it would reach 26k for the full year. If EB2-MP use around 3k, that would be 29k for the full year. Using the predicted FY2011 approvals would give even higher figures.

It is not true to say that everything is accounted for in the Inventory for Categories/Countries that are Current. The Inventory only shows those I-485 where the underlying I-140 has been approved. At best, only those I-140 that were Premium Processed have been captured for later months.


""I believe that EB2-IC has already received around 23-25k visas to date""
-This is speculation or based on trackitt data? Could be true.
That is based on Trackitt data and adjusted for the higher number of Trackitt applications for post backlog approvals. I believe it is figure that Teddy agrees with.

The USCIS Dashboard data for I-485 receipts is consistent with the numbers described above for EB1 and EB2-non IC.

[veni001]

The USCIS dashboard has been updated for March 2012. March, 12 I-140 receipts (4,836) are very low as compared to March, 11 I-140 receipts (8,739). Additionally, the total number of pending I-140 applications are very low (13,634) and heading towards an all time low number.

I am definitely bullish on Year, 2013.

vedu,
One reason for low i-140 receipts/pending application could be due to slower PERM approval rate.

We can't ignore the fact that there are ~27K Active PERM cases (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_March _2012.pdf) with DOL as of 03/26/2012.

[vedu]

Veni,

Thanks for your input. Since I am comparing every new statistics with the similar statistics from the last year, I was curious how the current pending perm applications number compares with the last year's number. I didn't find the numbers for March, 11, but I did find the numbers for May, 2011. We had approximately 22K Active Perm Cases (http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/PERM-Case-Analysis-July-2011.pdf) back then.

In summary, May, 11 has 22,200 active perm cases + 32,029 pending I-140 applications = 54,229 total number of applications.

Fast forward to March, 12, we have 27,200 active perm cases + 13,634 pending I-140 applications = 40,834 total number of applications. That is approximately 25% reduction in the total number of cases as compared to last year.


vedu,
One reason for low i-140 receipts/pending application could be due to slower PERM approval rate.

We can't ignore the fact that there are ~27K Active PERM cases (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_March _2012.pdf) with DOL as of 03/26/2012.

[Spectator]

Veni,

Thanks for your input. Since I am comparing every new statistics with the similar statistics from the last year, I was curious how the current pending perm applications number compares with the last year's number. I didn't find the numbers for March, 11, but I did fine the numbers for May, 2011. We had approximately 22K Active Perm Cases (http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/PERM-Case-Analysis-July-2011.pdf) back then.

In summary, May, 11 has 22,200 active perm cases + 32,029 pending I-140 applications = 54,229 total number of applications.

Fast forward to March, 12, we have 27,200 active perm cases + 13,634 pending I-140 applications = 40,834 total number of applications. That is approximately 25% reduction in the total number of cases as compared to last year.One thought.

Could this finally be the effect of the suspension of PWD showing up? I have been wondering when and how it would manifest itself.

At some point, for several months, no PERM could be submitted (and thus I-140 at a later date) because of the lack of a PWD.

If it is, we might expect a corresponding surge in the numbers in future months.

As I say, it is just a quick thought.

[vizcard]

Sorry to digress from the topic at hand but I had a quick question. Does anyone have an experience to share with regards applying for a visa (non-US) and submitting a copy of the EAD card instead of a H1B visa? Any hassles ?

[vedu]

Spec,

That may be a possibility, but it falls under the realm of speculation for now. Just as we don't show hyper-optimism that is not supported by the hard data on this forum, we should also not show hyper-pessimism without the hard supporting data.


One thought.

Could this finally be the effect of the suspension of PWD showing up? I have been wondering when and how it would manifest itself.

At some point, for several months, no PERM could be submitted (and thus I-140 at a later date) because of the lack of a PWD.

If it is, we might expect a corresponding surge in the numbers in future months.

As I say, it is just a quick thought.

[vedu]

Spec,

Thanks for further clarifications. Your post hasn't annoyed me at all. But I have reasons to be bullish about the future. From now on until the end of FY 2012, the focus of the USCIS will be exclusively on clearing EB2 ROW inventory. In my opinion, all those PWD delays, etc. will be accounted for and cleared by September, 2012. Thus, we will start new year with pretty much a clean slate as per as EB2 ROW I-485 inventory is concerned. On the other hand, EB2 IC is currently unavailable, thus, EB2 IC I-485 inventory will also saturate soon and there will be no further additions to it. These two things combined make me stay positive about FY2013.

Please see my additional comment in red below.



vedu,

I agree that I-140 Receipts are about 23% lower than the corresponding period last year. It may be significant, or it may not be.

To ignore a factor that we already know is going to depress the figures at some time is not very useful either. The fact that PWD were unavailable for some time IS a hard fact.

In fact, the I-140 Receipt numbers have been shown a dip for about 3 months now. That, combined with increased Completions, has led to the number of Pending cases dropping from 20k in Dec 11 to 13.6k now. At the same time, the numbers awaiting customer action have increased, so the real Pending number was 23.4k in December and 17.8k in March.

The last 6 months of FY2011 saw an average of 9.3k cases completed a month, which is far above the normal run rate. That, more than anything contributed to the lower number of Pending applications, since the total numbers completed were 16.5k more than the first 6 months of FY2012. The actual reduction in Pending cases in FY2012 is only 3.9k (5.4k for P+A).

Whatever the reasons are for the dip in the pending numbers, this is actually a good news. It is good to know that the higher than normal completion rate will take care of most of these cases in FY2012 itself. This will be one less thing to worry about going into FY 2013.

Depending when the dip occurs, it may be the saving grace for the numbers this year. Too early and the increased numbers later on will translate into approvals within this FY.

It is not pessimism for pessimism sake - I didn't see it as pessimistic at all - it was merely a discussion point.

I'm sorry it seems to have annoyed you. I won't comment further on the subject.

[Kanmani]

In addition to PWD delays DOL is currently practising to increase the Audits and Supervised Recruitment . Below is from the faq on SR recently published .

What are the consequences of an employer requesting to withdraw an application undergoing Supervised Recruitment?

While OFLC/ANPC may grant an employer's request to withdraw an application undergoing supervised recruitment and the employer then files a new application meeting all regulatory requirements, the future application for the same foreign worker as in the withdrawn application will be subject to supervised recruitment pursuant to 20 CFR 656.21. Additionally, where the OFLC/ANPC determines it appropriate, all other applications filed by the employer for any foreign worker or job opportunity may also be subject to supervised recruitment

Repeated requests to withdraw different applications undergoing supervised recruitment will be carefully reviewed and may evidence a pattern or practice of the employer's failure to comply with the supervised recruitment process, and may subject the employer to debarment from the permanent labor certification program for a reasonable period of no more than three years pursuant to 20 CFR 656.31(f)(1)(v).


This could also be one of the reasons for low Perm numbers.

[Mavrick]

I think people have already packed there bags for long weekend - No posts since Wednesday :)

[veni001]

I think people have already packed there bags for long weekend - No posts since Wednesday :)

Yes, Wishing all forum members & visitors Happy holiday weekend.

[randomax]

[QUOTE=sportsfan33;27409]This is an interesting and controversial topic.

And in my eyes, the people who are getting the most complacent are the whites! Losing the population battle to the so called "minorities" when practically the entire deck is in their favor is simply astonishing.

QUOTE]

Sportsfan, not sure why you think this is a battle? Every advanced country sees a tappering off in their growth rates. In a lot of Eurpoean countries, the growth rate is negative because people don't want to have children. Not to go off topic, but given the explosion in the world's population, the true "battle" is population control, not population growth.

[chewbaca]

Hey All,
Apologise for digressing this intereseting conversation regarding 3012 but If you guys dont mind digressing a little and providing some predictions on when EB2 - India - PD 10-Jan-2008 will be current it'd be super. As of now the dates are unavailable and I could not apply during the rush few months back because I was in appeal.
thanks in advance

[Spectator]

Hey All,
Apologise for digressing this intereseting conversation regarding 3012 but If you guys dont mind digressing a little and providing some predictions on when EB2 - India - PD 10-Jan-2008 will be current it'd be super. As of now the dates are unavailable and I could not apply during the rush few months back because I was in appeal.
thanks in advancechewbaca,

I think that is an interesting question.

Please bear in mind that I am one of the more pessimistic contributor's, but I think sportsfan might be a little optimistic.

EB2 China has a lot less applications than EB2 India, which may cause a problem for CO in moving the dates.

Based on the May USCIS Inventory and the initial allocation of 2.8k visas each for EB2-C & EB2-I, China would be able to reach the end of June 2008, but India could only reach about Mid August 2007.

For EB2-IC as a whole to reach the end of June 2008 would require 16.3k plus any further porting numbers and people who missed the last boat. That probably means about 20k in total over a whole year. That also probably represents the low water mark of SOFAD possibilities.

Given that EB2-C can reach so far on the initial allocation, CO may only release 27% of that per quarter (maybe slightly more), or 757 visas. That would move EB2-C to about the end of October 2007 by the end of Q1.
I don't think CO can set a Cut Off Date for EB2-I that is later than that for EB2-C while they are using their initial allocation. A move to the end of October 2007 in Q1 would use about 5.1k visas for EB2-IC.

If the dates were to move to mid January 2008 in Q1, then around 7.9k visas would be required for EB2-IC.

While that is not impossible, it would use 44% of EB2-C initial allocation in a single quarter.

In a low SOFAD year, it would probably mean that visas would run out early again - something I do not think CO will want to repeat.

I expect a more circumspect approach to QSP in FY2013 to ensure some movement in each of the first 3 quarters with the final balance being allocated in Q4.

Now, obviously, not all cases in the Inventory will be approved, but you can apply a % to take care of those numbers if you wish.

To answer your question, it is not impossible for a Jan 10, 2008 PD to become Current in Q1 FY2013, but I think it might be sometime in Q2 before Jan 2008 dates become Current again. However, CO has surprised everybody before, so who knows!

[bvsamrat]

Yes! It is very interesting. A perfect example to state - glass is half full or half empty.



chewbaca,

I think that is an interesting question.

Please bear in mind that I am one of the more pessimistic contributor's, but I think sportsfan might be a little optimistic.

EB2 China has a lot less applications than EB2 India, which may cause a problem for CO in moving the dates.

Based on the May USCIS Inventory and the initial allocation of 2.8k visas each for EB2-C & EB2-I, China would be able to reach the end of June 2008, but India could only reach about Mid August 2007.

For EB2-IC as a whole to reach the end of June 2008 would require 16.3k plus any further porting numbers and people who missed the last boat. That probably means about 20k in total over a whole year. That also probably represents the low water mark of SOFAD possibilities.

Given that EB2-C can reach so far on the initial allocation, CO may only release 27% of that per quarter (maybe slightly more), or 757 visas. That would move EB2-C to about the end of October 2007 by the end of Q1.
I don't think CO can set a Cut Off Date for EB2-I that is later than that for EB2-C while they are using their initial allocation. A move to the end of October 2007 in Q1 would use about 5.1k visas for EB2-IC.

If the dates were to move to mid January 2008 in Q1, then around 7.9k visas would be required for EB2-IC.

While that is not impossible, it would use 44% of EB2-C initial allocation in a single quarter.

In a low SOFAD year, it would probably mean that visas would run out early again - something I do not think CO will want to repeat.

I expect a more circumspect approach to QSP in FY2013 to ensure some movement in each of the first 3 quarters with the final balance being allocated in Q4.

Now, obviously, not all cases in the Inventory will be approved, but you can apply a % to take care of those numbers if you wish.

To answer your question, it is not impossible for a Jan 10, 2008 PD to become Current in Q1 FY2013, but I think it might be sometime in Q2 before Jan 2008 dates become Current again. However, CO has surprised everybody before, so who knows!

[Spectator]

Yes! It is very interesting. A perfect example to state - glass is half full or half empty.bvsamrat,

Yes, again, despite the full disclosure.

And your point is???

[murali83]

chewbaca,

I think that is an interesting question.

Please bear in mind that I am one of the more pessimistic contributor's, but I think sportsfan might be a little optimistic.

For EB2-IC as a whole to reach the end of June 2008 would require 16.3k plus any further porting numbers and people who missed the last boat. That probably means about 20k in total over a whole year. That also probably represents the low water mark of SOFAD possibilities.



Spec,

Great post. I for one never felt that you are pessimistic. In fact when I wrote here 3-4 weeks back that FY 2013 will just finish at Sep 30 - Oct 15 2008, I did not take take porting into account simply becos dates are U now. But that does not mean porting wont take place from Oct 2012. So if we take porting into account, FY 2013 will just land somewhere around end of July 2008 for a 20K visa supply (sofad + default 5.6K). I guess I am saying July 2008 instead of June becos there will always be some cases that will take for ever to process. So if we get 24K visas like we got this year, we may reach Oct 30, 2008.

Cheers

[Spectator]

Spec,

Great post. I for one never felt that you are pessimistic. In fact when I wrote here 3-4 weeks back that FY 2013 will just finish at Sep 30 - Oct 15 2008, I did not take take porting into account simply becos dates are U now. But that does not mean porting wont take place from Oct 2012. So if we take porting into account, FY 2013 will just land somewhere around end of July 2008 for a 20K visa supply (sofad + default 5.6K). I guess I am saying July 2008 instead of June becos there will always be some cases that will take for ever to process. So if we get 24K visas like we got this year, we may reach Oct 30, 2008.

Cheersmurali,

I'm glad someone appreciated it. It is just how I see it based on the information available at the moment. Cautious or conservative might be a better description. I was carried away with the hoopla one year when the figures said different and I don't want to repeat that experience.

I actually pretty much agree with the dates you have mentioned. If the dates moved like this year (i.e. fast movement followed by U for much of the year) then porting numbers would be limited. As I mentioned, I think CO has probably learnt some lessons from what happened this year.

[Spectator]

sportsfan,

Thanks for your thoughts. Please feel free to debate away. I enjoy reading your views.

While I don't necessarily always agree with everything you say, I do appreciate that you lay out your thought processes so well and counter intelligently. I hope you feel similarly the other way round.

I do think that the Visa Office under DOS and USCIS under DHS have different objectives. DOS controls allocation of visas and their approach and motives may not necessarily be entirely compatible with what USCIS might like to see. The size of the new Inventory is a case in point.

I do agree that CO did what he wanted this year despite the information that must have been available, but that seemed aimed at gathering as large an Inventory as possible.

I will say it again - healthy debate and differing opinions are a good thing. It makes us all revisit and strengthen our arguments as well as thinking about factors we might not have considered. It also allows everyone to see the spectrum of what is possible and why.

One aspect this forum is noted for is the ability to disagree politely and for there to be no fear of posting a contrary view.

Ultimately, no-one here is trying to tell anybody what to think. Take a large pinch of salt and make your own mind up based on the variety of thoughts and data available.

[bvsamrat]

Apologies. Spectator. I did not mean to disrespect you. (Always, It pays to be pessimistic for a forecastor as even it turns wrong, no one will mind it)

But you have solid reasoning behind your analysis and I can not question beyond ny abilities.

Buy anyway, my take is that (w/o calculations), the procedure of 485 processing may be so time consuming that it will force the CO to forward the dates again in Q1- FY2013 to atleast to mid 2008, to use the Visa numbers supply. If someone has an estimate of approved and adjudicated numbers right now(or can predict up to Sepember 2012), then that will be uselful to know.







bvsamrat,

Yes, again, despite the full disclosure.

And your point is???

[qesehmk]

Sportsfan - what you wrote above is quite comic yet so sad truth. Which is why it is so important to bring clarity to this whole process and make sure people understand implications on their life and career. Thanks for sharing :)



Ultimately, no-one here is trying to tell anybody what to think. Take a large pinch of salt and make your own mind up based on the variety of thoughts and data available.
Spec - so true. Again - I think that's what people need to understand. None of us have crystal balls. We only have vague pointers that we use to make an "intelligent guess".

bvsamrat - no worries about your post. I would take Spec's point about "what's the point" completely as a matter of fact. I am sure he only wanted to understand what exactly you wanted to say.

[murali83]

murali,

I'm glad someone appreciated it. It is just how I see it based on the information available at the moment. Cautious or conservative might be a better description. I was carried away with the hoopla one year when the figures said different and I don't want to repeat that experience.

I actually pretty much agree with the dates you have mentioned. If the dates moved like this year (i.e. fast movement followed by U for much of the year) then porting numbers would be limited. As I mentioned, I think CO has probably learnt some lessons from what happened this year.

Spec,

On the optimistic side, is there any chance that the inventory released on May 3, 2012 has some already approved cases that have been counted as part of the pending inventory.

[vedu]

I did some filtering on Trackitt I-485 tracker and noticed that there are 12 approved EB2 India cases after May 3rd. And there are 8 new EB2 India cases with USCIS notice date of May 3rd and beyond. These two numbers are pretty much canceling each other out. So, IMHO, there will be no significant additions to or subtractions from the total pending EB2 India cases (39,577) reported in the inventory report released on May 3, 2012 for the remainder of the FY2012.

It is my understanding that the cases with the USCIS notice date of May 2nd and before are already recorded in the May 3, 2012 inventory report. I may be wrong and experts may have a different opinion on this.


Spec,

On the optimistic side, is there any chance that the inventory released on May 3, 2012 has some already approved cases that have been counted as part of the pending inventory.

[vedu]

Sportsfan,

As much as I respect Spec's analysis, I would like to remain optimistic about FY2013 along with you and Q. I was one of the luckiest guys this year and I never saw it coming. My priority date is late into April, 2010 and still I got a chance to file my I-485 application. After that, everything went so smooth and within days, I received my combo card and FP was completed. I know that there is a little chance of me getting GC in FY2013 but I don't mind waiting. I am just glad that my I-485 processing time is built into my waiting time now.

Let's see what FY2013 brings us! Fingers crossed!!


I have no stomach to argue with someone of Spec's reputation :) Yes, I agree that the steady state logical look at the things yield the picture you are pointing to. I would be however very surprised if it really turns out like this.

There are several reasons in hindsight that make me believe we have reason to be optimistic. I have said those before, and let me again repeat them without sounding too annoying.

a) The date movement of the March bulletin was very strange. However in just about a month, CO came out suddenly saying that demand was rising and that he was going to put lights out for EB2-IC. Looking at the inventory report, it seems like the March EB1 inventory spike concerned him. However EB1 inventory tapered off in April and it is unlikely that the spike observed in March would be seen again (at least in near future - we don't know what the long term holds for us).

So if the March EB1 inventory is the sole reason for the imposed retrogression or the eventual "U", then that reason has to go away soon. On the other hand, while people were applying when they were current, inventory was being collected, so CO's statements in earlier year about demand being exceptionally low were very dubious. Either way, they have some engineering plans in place and they already experimented this year by putting in very aggressive QSP. Why not next year too? Why not even in bigger force? Why should they become conservative when they should be aggressive?

b) Why the piled up EB2-IC inventory is a problem? Post July 2007, they don't have EAD/AP renewal revenue to justify keeping a stockpile of thousands of applications wasting resources and space. The longer the applications are held, the more the pain - post pre-adjuducation RFEs (is there such a thing?), EVL, AC21 handling means more work for free. That's why they should be getting rid of EB2-IC applications earlier in the year rather than later (in Q4) even if it bends laws - after all, laws really don't mean much to the USCIS :)

c) I think we can increase our ballpark for next year's SOFAD. There are already murmurs about the EB1C abuse that can become loud voices shortly. Already, we know what they are capable of (Kazarian). I find it hard to believe that without putting on brakes, they will let EB1 get continually used up like it is. I still think that this years usage is simply a "demand trickled over from last year". Next year, EB1 should give more, and EB2-IC should hit about 30K give or take.

d) One other potential reason why they might want to reduce the EB2-IC inventory fast is to speed up China. By every indication, post 2008 Chinese demand is less - maybe so less than they can become current in a couple of years. Chinese are very adept at working behind the scene, and in this case (unlike 1962), they might turn out to be our friends.

I agree that I don't have any numbers and I may have hopeless rose colored glasses. Of course, I would listen to spec too if I had to make a critical decision. But if I had nothing good to do on a bored afternoon with depressed thoughts about potentially long GC waits, I would surely read my posts :)

EDIT: BTW, my original response about the Jan 2008 becoming current was straight out from the first post on this thread from Q. Q has an even more aggressive prediction of this year.

[murali83]

I have no stomach to argue with someone of Spec's reputation :) Yes, I agree that the steady state logical look at the things yield the picture you are pointing to. I would be however very surprised if it really turns out like this.

There are several reasons in hindsight that make me believe we have reason to be optimistic. I have said those before, and let me again repeat them without sounding too annoying.

c) I think we can increase our ballpark for next year's SOFAD. There are already murmurs about the EB1C abuse that can become loud voices shortly. Already, we know what they are capable of (Kazarian). I find it hard to believe that without putting on brakes, they will let EB1 get continually used up like it is. I still think that this years usage is simply a "demand trickled over from last year". Next year, EB1 should give more, and EB2-IC should hit about 30K give or take.



Sportsfan,

While I don't agree with the other points you made, I do agree on this one. EB1 usage in FY2012 was indeed high due to demand trickling over from last year. I am not sure how much more EB1 will yield next year, but it should yield a little more than this year, if not as much as fy 2011.

Cheers

[Spectator]

Spec,

On the optimistic side, is there any chance that the inventory released on May 3, 2012 has some already approved cases that have been counted as part of the pending inventory.murali,

That's a good thought, since the January Inventory didn't appear to be particularly up to date. Possibly those numbers might be balanced by new applications that have also not been counted.

For the May Inventory, I don't think we would be talking about many cases, because DOS internally retrogressed the Cut Off Dates to Aug 15, 2007 on March 23 and internally made visas Unavailable on April 11, some time before the May 3 date.

[murali83]

murali,

That's a good thought, since the January Inventory didn't appear to be particularly up to date. Possibly those numbers might be balanced by new applications that have also not been counted.

For the May Inventory, I don't think we would be talking about many cases, because DOS internally retrogressed the Cut Off Dates to Aug 15, 2007 on March 23 and internally made visas Unavailable on April 11, some time before the May 3 date.

Thats right Spec, So the inventory data in all probability does reflect the true numbers out there

[qesehmk]

Header updated with very interesting I-140 Statistics.

Basically - it tells us that even if we assume EB2IC has already received 32K visas so far, there are 18K more are yet to come.

All the best and tear this logic apart.

[suninphx]

Header updated with very interesting I-140 Statistics.

Basically - it tells us that even if we assume EB2IC has already received 32K visas so far, there are 18K more are yet to come.

All the best and tear this logic apart.

Q - that's very interesting statistics. I have two points to add:

- there is a thread called 'EB1C Club' on trackitt. Activity on that thread has reduced significantly since last month.
- I am wondering if number of cases being added to trackitt are proportional to overall buzz on website? In another words when EB2IC was moving fast there was lot of buzz on trackitt. Did that made lot of people (including ROW) to register their cases , thus representing more percentage than normal days? If thats the case then your numbers above and over all theory you have been advocating recently makes lot of sense.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Q, Spec and other gurus....based on info available on 140s , can you now make predictions for Oct 2012 VB and where we expect EB2 I will stand.

BTW ..my primary spouse received GC already in march and I who applied ( PD Dec 07 EB2 I ) with receipt of primary spouse fell off since mine went to a different service center which in march they relaized and moved it back to NSC where primary got approved.....I have not received any rfe or anything till date and since 485 first applied ..it is almost 6 months ...does it mean it is pre-adjudicated ?

[qesehmk]

That's true sun. Trackitt ratio keeps changing since people tend to register there when there is high expectations.
- I am wondering if number of cases being added to trackitt are proportional to overall buzz on website? In another words when EB2IC was moving fast there was lot of buzz on trackitt. Did that made lot of people (including ROW) to register their cases , thus representing more percentage than normal days? If thats the case then your numbers above and over all theory you have been advocating recently makes lot of sense.


Q, Spec and other gurus....based on info available on 140s , can you now make predictions for Oct 2012 VB and where we expect EB2 I will stand.

BTW ..my primary spouse received GC already in march and I who applied ( PD Dec 07 EB2 I ) with receipt of primary spouse fell off since mine went to a different service center which in march they relaized and moved it back to NSC where primary got approved.....I have not received any rfe or anything till date and since 485 first applied ..it is almost 6 months ...does it mean it is pre-adjudicated ?
Making a prediction for Oct 2012 VB is too premature. However given your "primary" spouse received his/her GC already, you should receive it soon - hopefully between Jul-Oct. Sorry the fun with "primary" ... i just couldn't help it!


I was surprised at Democrats who were so willingly supporting Irish E-3 bill without single question even though it was racist and unfair. They make Grassley look like a hero. They would pass anything without someone to stop and ask questions.
Well that was because E-3 was never meant as a serious bill. It was a distraction to something that republicans tried to do. So in this case - democrats acted anti-immigrant.

[vedu]

Q,

I have been monitoring I-140 statistics for a long time now and I do agree with your analysis. Additionally, I looked into PERM receipts. In FY 2011, there were a total of 45,084 PERM (http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/PERM-Case-Analysis-July-2011.pdf) applications received as of May, 2011. That's a monthly average of 5635 applications. Now in FY 2012, DOL has received 28,750 applications as of March, 2012 (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_March _2012.pdf). That's a monthly average of 4791 applications. This is approximately 15% reduction in monthly PERM receipts as compared to last year. In a way, the LOW perm numbers corroborate the LOW number of I-140 applications this year.

Also, there is a news that the rate of denied and withdrawn PERM cases is higher this year as compared to last year (http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/News/News2012-05-26.html).

One other thing I am noticing is that the EB3 IC applicants are getting two-year EADs. On the contrary, EB2 IC applicants are getting only one-year EADs. May be USCIS/DOS are confident based on their own estimations that the wait for EB2 IC applicants will not last more than a year?


Header updated with very interesting I-140 Statistics.

Basically - it tells us that even if we assume EB2IC has already received 32K visas so far, there are 18K more are yet to come.

All the best and tear this logic apart.

[qesehmk]

Vedu thanks for the labor confirmation. That fits well with this data.

Regarding EAD duration for EB3IC - may be that's the max they could do under current operational guidelines / law OR may be they did that in anticipation of HR3012. I am not sure. My inclination is the former.


Q,

I have been monitoring I-140 statistics for a long time now and I do agree with your analysis. Additionally, I looked into PERM receipts. In FY 2011, there were a total of 45,084 PERM (http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/PERM-Case-Analysis-July-2011.pdf) applications received as of May, 2011. That's a monthly average of 5635 applications. Now in FY 2012, DOL has received 28,750 applications as of March, 2012 (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_March _2012.pdf). That's a monthly average of 4791 applications. This is approximately 15% reduction in monthly PERM receipts as compared to last year. In a way, the LOW perm numbers corroborate the LOW number of I-140 applications this year.

Also, there is a news that the rate of denied and withdrawn PERM cases is higher this year as compared to last year (http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/News/News2012-05-26.html).

One other thing I am noticing is that the EB3 IC applicants are getting two-year EADs. On the contrary, EB2 IC applicants are getting only one-year EADs. May be USCIS/DOS are confident based on their own estimations that the wait for EB2 IC applicants will not last more than a year?

p.s. - Moved some of hte other posts about HR3012 to advocacy thread.

[SmileBaba]

Q,

I have been monitoring I-140 statistics for a long time now and I do agree with your analysis. Additionally, I looked into PERM receipts. In FY 2011, there were a total of 45,084 PERM (http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/PERM-Case-Analysis-July-2011.pdf) applications received as of May, 2011. That's a monthly average of 5635 applications. Now in FY 2012, DOL has received 28,750 applications as of March, 2012 (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_March _2012.pdf). That's a monthly average of 4791 applications. This is approximately 15% reduction in monthly PERM receipts as compared to last year. In a way, the LOW perm numbers corroborate the LOW number of I-140 applications this year.

Also, there is a news that the rate of denied and withdrawn PERM cases is higher this year as compared to last year (http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/News/News2012-05-26.html).

One other thing I am noticing is that the EB3 IC applicants are getting two-year EADs. On the contrary, EB2 IC applicants are getting only one-year EADs. May be USCIS/DOS are confident based on their own estimations that the wait for EB2 IC applicants will not last more than a year?
Sharing link on USCIS's criteria for 1 yr/2yr EAD:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextchannel=68439c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a 1RCRD&vgnextoid=62ae15d3ffd7a110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCRD

[vedu]

SmileBaba,

Thanks for the link. That makes a lot of sense now.


Sharing link on USCIS's criteria for 1 yr/2yr EAD:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextchannel=68439c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a 1RCRD&vgnextoid=62ae15d3ffd7a110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCRD

[Spectator]

I see that CM on us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com has finally leapt into life and posted some July VB predictions (http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/06/july-2012-visa-bulletin-predictions-eb.html).


us-non-immigrants.blogspot July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 15 September 2005 (5 weeks)
EB3 – ROW and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 July 2006 (4 weeks)
EB3 – Philippines could advance to 15 June 2006 (3 weeks)
EB2 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines could see cut-off date of 01 August 2011 – 01 November 2011 in coming bulletins.
EB3-India could advance to 22 September 2002. (1 week)
EB2-India and EB2-China would stay ‘Unavailable’ until September 2012.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt. EB2-ROW/Others date are determined based on discussion with attorney friend.

Other than the EB2-WW prediction , no great surprises. In fact, he does say in coming bulletins. I would be a little surprised if it happened as early as July.

Note he expects EB3-P to retrogress further away from EB3-WW, which is no surprise at all.

[sk911911]

I have been a regular reader of this forum for the last few months. I am most impressed with the way the members treat each other. Every one respects other member and values their openion. I have been to some other popular forums but likes this one the best.

I sincerly thank everyone for their research and time they are spending. The info is very valuble for people like us. Thank you.

[GhostWriter]

Random thought for sunday afternoon - If due to the Euro crisis, the EU nations end up with a political union (not happening, higher chance is of Euro disintegration but just theoretically) then the EU countries will end up with a single 7% limit instead of a separate 7% limit for each country. Irish will no longer oppose removal of per country limits :)





(2) Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-based immigrants. - Subject to 1a/ paragraphs (3), (4), and (5) the total number of immigrant visas made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area under subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 in any fiscal year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2 percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.

[/url]

[Spectator]

I have been a silent follower of this thread. Had few questions so thought of posing them to Gurus


1. Any way to know how many EB1 visas have been used for this year?

There is no definitive way to be sure how many visas EB1 have used this year. EB1 this year is particularly complicated to forecast.

I have tried my best in this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?181-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2012-vs.-FY2011) in FACTS & DATA. Currently EB1 may have used about 23k visas based on my calculations, heading for about 35k by the end of the year at current rates, but there is a wide error margin on this figure.


2. How can CO say that there will not be any more movement this year? My understanding is that Q4 quota of EB1 should still be available and there could potentially be spillover?

To service the number of visas already given to EB2-IC, CO has almost certainly given a portion of EB1's (and EB5) allocation to EB2-IC already. This means the effective quota for EB1 is now much lower than 40k. He has an expectation that EB1 will use that lower number. In the last VB, CO mentioned that a Cut Off Date for EB1 is a possibility based on current demand. That means EB1 may exceed the lower number of visas available to it. For that reason, there is virtually no chance of any further spillover from EB1 - it has already been given earlier in the year.


3. When do you guys think EB2I Nov 2008 will be current? I know it is very difficult to answer but just trying to figure out options.

I won't try to answer that. Everybody has widely varying opinions.

[vizcard]

3. When do you guys think EB2I Nov 2008 will be current? I know it is very difficult to answer but just trying to figure out options.

By Dec 2013. That is the safest answer I can give you. Like Spec says there are varying opinions and it's just hard to pinpoint where we land at the end of this fiscal year. That to me is the biggest driver of next year. If EB1 and EB2ROW get thru without CODs, then I can say Sept 2013 for sure. If not, probably Dec 2013. Again, take it with a grain of salt.

[gc4a_k]

FYI...

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1018533773/feb-filer-eb2-today-1st-time-i-can-check-my-status-online

Even for me I-485 status (which previously was unavailable) is in Acceptance stage.

[luckycub]

Our I-485 status shows up as Acceptance too...

EB2
RD 2/1/2012

[trackright]

Yes.. Our 485 shows "Acceptance" too and 06/02/2012 as last updated date.

[Mavrick]

Q,

Can we associate any significance to this?


Yes.. Our 485 shows "Acceptance" too and 06/02/2012 as last updated date.

[qesehmk]

Not much - other than basically USCIS is now getting their hands around all the cases they took in over last 4-5 months. Acceptance is not preadjudication. But it probably does indicate some basic quality check for required documents done and case is complete.
Q,

Can we associate any significance to this?

[vizcard]

Not much - other than basically USCIS is now getting their hands around all the cases they took in over last 4-5 months. Acceptance is not preadjudication. But it probably does indicate some basic quality check for required documents done and case is complete.

This is correct. It just means that they have received the packet in completion and will be placed in queue to be processed.

[tatikonda]

I am trying to predict the movement, which many experts already did.. Please feel free to find loops in this theory ..

2nd Preference
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total
January 57 1,068 1,301 1,026 3,452
February 52 1,017 1,260 1,089 3,418
March 53 1,176 1,384 1,286 3,899
April 117 1,491 1,207 1,511 4,326
May 206 1,338 1,042 2,586
June 311 1,372 1,069 2,752
July 504 1,193 984 2,681
August 516 1,175 801 2,492
September 598 1,066 1,058 2,722
October 711 1,366 1,143 3,220
November 905 1,279 993 3,177
December 874 1,595 1,187 3,656
Total 4,904 15,136 13,429 4,912 0 0 38,381

This is from May Inventory Data 2012.
Assuming this is correct data ( even though many experts (Ron Gotcher ) thinks this is incorrect data ) and there is no further spill over in FY2012.

In Oct 2012 - According to Rule - not more than 27 % of visa should be given in Q1/Q2/Q3 -
So Q1 allocated visa in EB2 Categories would be ~11K Visa. Assuming 3~ Spill over from EB1,
DOS would be able to allocate 14K Visas for Eb2.

So, Assuming in these 14K visas, 6K Visa goes EB2ROW,
8k Visa should be there, which should clear April 2008.

Rest movement should be in Q2, Q2 SpillOver depends on Q1 Demand.

[tatikonda]

Are these EB2I pending numbers only? Or its EB2IC combined?


Update: I looked it up. You need to add EB2C numbers to arrive at date estimate..

I am thinking of 8k visa spill over to EB2-I/C, and inventory shows
2007 - India + China = 1046 + 4904 = 5960 = ~6k.

So Remaining 2K visas, may be Feb 2008 only, ( China for 2008 is real now ~ 200/Month).

[usernameisnotvalid]

For Feb filers at least, at this stage I guess it is more than that. If you look at the date for eg in my case it is 'Acceptance' state but it says "On Feb 6, 2012 we received.." and 'Acceptance' means they will check for accuracy etc. and issue a receipt which they did in Feb!

Because they don't have 'Pre-Adj' status so it is completely possible that 'Acceptance' status after 3 months means 'Pre-Adj'.


BTW for my son it is 'Initial Review' and for myself and my wife it is 'Acceptance'!

Any thoughts?


This is correct. It just means that they have received the packet in completion and will be placed in queue to be processed.

[vizcard]

For Feb filers at least, at this stage I guess it is more than that. If you look at the date for eg in my case it is 'Acceptance' state but it says "On Feb 6, 2012 we received.." and 'Acceptance' means they will check for accuracy etc. and issue a receipt which they did in Feb!

Because they don't have 'Pre-Adj' status so it is completely possible that 'Acceptance' status after 3 months means 'Pre-Adj'.


BTW for my son it is 'Initial Review' and for myself and my wife it is 'Acceptance'!

Any thoughts?

I'm a Jan filer and could see my cases online from day 1. It goes from Acceptance to Initial Review. Mine right now still says Initial Review. In any case, it doesn't matter what it says now. One could get a RFE at any time even after you get current again. So until the status says Decision or Post Decision, it really is not telling you thing.

[self.coach]

I see my case finally on USCIS, just as acceptance. Also got medical RFE for spouse - she was pregnant when the time came for filling medical form, so we got 'waiver' by the immigration doctor as she could not get x-rays (tb test required) and vaccinations.

And the good news: On May 11th 2012, a new member was born into our family and we have named her Khushi, which means "happiness".:cool:

[qesehmk]

Congrats to the new baby. Wish her all the happiness, health and weath. Congrats Self.Coach.


And the good news: On May 11th 2012, a new member was born into our family and we have named her Khushi, which means "happiness".:cool:

[Kanmani]

Guys,

Please bear with me for posting this question here but your guidance to my current situation is much required.

My 2nd H1-B extension completes on Sept 30th -2012 and I am up for another Three Year extension based on the I-140 approved (PD July-2010 :o) with my current Employer A .

If in any event my H1-B extension gets rejected with my current employer, I am planning to apply for an extension through one the clients that I previously worked with.

So in such scenario will this client ( Employer B) be eligible to file for three year H1-B for me based on a I-140 that is held/owned by Employer A?

Appreciate your advice in this matter.

Regards,

Prabhas

YES for sure.

[Kanmani]

I see my case finally on USCIS, just as acceptance. Also got medical RFE for spouse - she was pregnant when the time came for filling medical form, so we got 'waiver' by the immigration doctor as she could not get x-rays (tb test required) and vaccinations.

And the good news: On May 11th 2012, a new member was born into our family and we have named her Khushi, which means "happiness".:cool:

Self coach, Congratulations on the birth of your beautiful baby. Welcome Kushi!

In my observance, 90% of the primary and dependant cases are worked together, so it shows the acceptance status also mean that there is a good possibility of those already got pre-adjudicated . Just a thought. All the best .

[Prabhas]

Thank You very much for your response Kanmani.

Self Coach: Congratulations on your new born baby. Hope both mother and baby are going great and healthy!

Prabhas

[dec2007]

Hello Q,

Do you still expect the dates to move Q12008 in 2012? After recent discussions on forum, has anything changed that alters your prediction.

Thank You
Dec2007

[vizcard]

self.coach - congratulations on the birth of Khushi. Its moments like this that make the whole immigration stuff seem very petty.

[qesehmk]

Dec2007 - I recently updated the head. It is good as it is. I am still bullish on movements this year itself.
Hello Q,

Do you still expect the dates to move Q12008 in 2012? After recent discussions on forum, has anything changed that alters your prediction.

Thank You
Dec2007

[Spectator]

I have moved a number of posts that are better suited to the Discussion of Bills that remove the Per Country Limits - H.R.2161, H.R.3012, H.R.3119 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?211-Discussion-of-Bills-that-remove-the-Per-Country-Limits-H.R.2161-H.R.3012-H.R.3119) thread.

Let's keep the discussion in that thread.

[Spectator]

Quoted directly from the Trackitt post (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1020685631/row-eb2-cut-off-in-july-and-unavailable-later/page/last_page):


Quoted from Chinese EB forum, I don't know the source yet.

EB-2 Worldwide Cut-Off Expected in July
June 6, 2012
Executive Summary

A senior State Department official said that demand for EB-2 worldwide will
exceed availability next month, requiring the imposition of a priority date
cut-off. EB-2 worldwide could become unavailable before the end of the
fiscal year.

The State Department is expected to impose a worldwide priority date cut-off
for the EB-2 category in July, when demand is likely to exceed the number
of remaining EB-2 immigrant visas. According to a senior official, EB-2
could become unavailable worldwide before the end of this fiscal year if
high demand persists.

The exact cut-off date will not be known until the State Department
publishes the July Visa Bulletin in the coming days. EB-2 worldwide will
remain current until June 30. Qualified EB-2 foreign nationals except those
born in India or mainland China should be able to submit applications for
adjustment of status or an immigrant visa through that date. EB-2 became
unavailable for India and mainland China at the beginning of this month.

When the FY 2013 immigrant visa quota becomes available on October 1, 2012,
the India/China cut-off is expected to be a Summer 2007 date. EB-2 worldwide
should be current.

The quote also talks about EB2-IC opening FY2013 with a Summer 2007 Cut Off Date, which I have mentioned previously is very likely.

The source appears to be mitbbs.com (this article (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31779465.html) or this article (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31779525.html))

[vizcard]

Quoted directly from the Trackitt post (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1020685631/row-eb2-cut-off-in-july-and-unavailable-later/page/last_page):



The quote also talks about EB2-IC opening FY2013 with a Summer 2007 Cut Off Date, which I have mentioned previously is very likely.

The source appears to be mitbbs.com (this article (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31779465.html) or this article (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31779525.html))

Spec - I would agree that FY13 opening with Summer 2007 is the most likely scenario. However, I do believe it will move to Fall 2007 (possibly Oct/Nov 2007) by end of Q1. My sense is since this year has been a - pardon my french - a complete cluster from the DOS perspective, they won't have QSP at all in Q1 and possibly even Q2.

[murali83]

I still have a doubt if any cod will be imposed on eb2-row. I have no numbers to back my argument. The only reason I say this because, in this fy 2012, someone from uscis was always giving out public statements about the possible cutoff dates (in case of any major changes). But since nothing has come as of now, I am just assuming that eb2-row demand is not as high as expected.

[Spectator]

I have moved some posts relating to status updates to the Post I-485 Filing (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?238-Post-485-Filing/page165) thread.

I have also moved the answers to ravisekhar's H1B question to the other location (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?977-Does-my-friend-fall-in-H1B-Quota) it was asked.

[qesehmk]

Spec
Just read through your trackitt comparison data. Thank you for such painstaking efforts. It looks like EB1 could give 5K and EB4+EB5 at least 8K. The 5K can be consumed by ROW to keep current through Sep 2012. Perhaps 8K is what EB2IC receives? Wouldn't that bring the dates at least to Jan 2008 by Sep 2012? Am I missing something?

[Spectator]

Spec
Just read through your trackitt comparison data. Thank you for such painstaking efforts. It looks like EB1 could give 5K and EB4+EB5 at least 8K. The 5K can be consumed by ROW to keep current through Sep 2012. Perhaps 8K is what EB2IC receives? Wouldn't that bring the dates at least to Jan 2008 by Sep 2012? Am I missing something?Q,

Thanks for the compliment. It has been quite challenging this year to know how many "real" approvals that converts to.

I think what you are potentially missing is that all those numbers from EB4/EB5 and EB1 (and more) have already been effectively allocated to EB2-IC for approvals made to date. Realistically, there is very little chance of any more visas being available to EB2-IC this year.

I think EB2-IC has already received at the lower end of 23-25k visas before becoming Unavailable.

Using 23k, Spillover required to service that number is 23.0 - 5.6 = 17.4k

That means, using your numbers, EB2-ROW has to provide 17.4 - 13.0 = 4.4k of spillover to EB2-IC in addition to the 13k provided by EB4/EB5/EB1.

The EB2-WW allocation is 34.4k, so if EB2-WW were to exceed 30k then they would have to retrogress.

As best I can tell, EB2-ROW seems to be heading for around 25-26k at the current rate and EB2-MP might use 3-4k based on historic figures.

It would be very very close. The error margin in the figures easily covers both possibilities.

For reference, EB2-WW might have used 33.3k in FY2011, if EB2-IC used 33.5k.

In fact, I am not sure EB4/EB5 will provide 8k spare visas. Last year saw an unusually low number of EB4 approvals, considering EB4 reached the limit in FY2009 and slightly exceeded it in FY2010. Of course, it is virtually impossible to tell, but that fact does worry me. I have never seen any information about EB4 usage during the year, so you might well be right.

A saving grace might be if some of the ongoing problems in EB5 do not get resolved. USCIS have changed the rules recently which has led to a backlog of cases. I feel a Class Action Lawsuit is possible if it isn't sorted out, but that takes time.

It is also worrying that CO even mentioned the possibility of EB1 having a Cut Off date at the end of the year. It may be bluff, but it speaks of the potential for more EB1 approvals than I am expecting (35-36k at current rate).

To be honest, I can't quite work that one out. Even if CO had mentally allocated any unused EB4/EB5 visas for EB2-IC, the law is clear. Spare visas from EB4/EB5 must fall up for use by EB1 first. Using your number of 8k spare visas from EB4/EB5, EB1 could only retrogress if they used more than 48k visas, which I don't think is possible unless the entire backlog was also cleared. Very odd.

If EB2-WW does have a Cut Off Date imposed in the July Bulletin, as some have suggested, that would be earlier than I had expected. It might mean either EB2-IC approvals are higher than I have calculated, or EB2-WW approvals are higher than I have calculated, or not as much Spillover will be available as I thought, or a combination of all the previous.

[openaccount]

July 2012-Demand Data released:

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

EB2ROW:250

EB2I--17850
EB2C:4100

EB2IC June DD to July difference--->6250, uscis pre-ajudicated 6250 applications in May

[vedu]

Openaccount,

Thanks for the heads up on the demand data. Based on the EB2 ROW cumulative demand of 250, I don't see that category retrogressing, at least in July. May be that news was a rumor after all. Let's wait for the official visa bulletin.


Demand Data released:

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

EB2ROW:250

EB2I--17850
EB2C:4100

EB2IC June DD to July difference--->6250, uscis pre-ajudicated 6250 applications in May

[qesehmk]

So this is good data. By now all cases probably made their way into demand data. Given that this is "documentarily qualified" demand - we can't be certain. But probably all cases filed during the surge are probably in there.

Some nuggets:
1. EB2IC for 2008 is a very telltale. 12K outstanding => real overall demand was 18K (if we assume based on trackitt that 1/3rd already received their GCs) =>1.5K per month
2. EB2IC for 2007 and prior is 4K. => at least following number from 2007 were approved - 13K backlog + 1.5K per month * 4 months - 4K = 15K.
3. Add the 6K for 2008, that brings total EB2IC approvals for 2012 so far = 21K.
4. That is approx 10K less than what EB2IC received last year.

Does that mean EB2IC will receive 10K this more through rest of the year? I would like ot believe so based on 140 data I had earlier produced. But trackitt EB1 and EB2ROW data runs against it. The fallacy with trackitt data is that people tend to register more when there is frenzy. So the ratios move all over the place.

My gut feel is EB2IC certainly should receive 10K between now and Sep 2012 thereby moving dates well into Q2 2008.

[Spectator]

Openaccount,

Thanks for the heads up on the demand data. Based on the EB2 ROW cumulative demand of 250, I don't see that category retrogressing, at least in July. May be that news was a rumor after all. Let's wait for the official visa bulletin.EB2-WW numbers in the Demand Data will only start increasing after any retrogression has taken place.

Until then, the Demand Data pretty much only shows the Demand for Consular Processed cases, since any AOS cases can be approved immediately and therefore never show in the Demand Data. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?649-What-Does-the-Demand-Data-Represent

[vedu]

Spec,

That's a valid point. Let's wait for the official visa bulletin and see which theory holds up.


EB2-WW numbers in the Demand Data will only start increasing after any retrogression has taken place.

Until then, the Demand Data pretty much only shows the Demand for Consular Processed cases, since any AOS cases can be approved immediately and therefore never show in the Demand Data. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?649-What-Does-the-Demand-Data-Represent

[redsox2009]

My 2 cents analysis based on the demand data................

From the demand data, the number of applications that were processed in EB2 cat for I/C has increased by 6350. Which means the USCIS processed extra 6350 in month of May. Last year in one of the report the USCIS stated that they distrubuted work equally and were processing files close to 30000 per quarter, which means they were processing 10K per month. Based on that statement we can assume they processed 10k applications and out of which 6350 are EB2 I/C and 3650 are remaining catogeries and this tells that they are having less demand. However one thing that is concerning to me is the 30 and 50 applications that were processed for other countries, are they are waiting for visa number to be avaliable or did these applications came as upgrade process. If they are upgrade then it should not be much concern, if they are non upgarde and waiting for Visa number then we are doomed, that is telling that visa numbers are unavaliable till Oct 2012.



246

[vedu]

Guys,

The following link provides some interesting EB5 statistics.

http://www.cis.org/north/strange-numbers-immigrant-investors-losing-interest-green-cards

There were only 375 EB5 applications filed in the first half of FY 2012 as compared to 1,150 applications filed in the first half of FY 2011. That's approximately 32% reduction in EB5 numbers on YOY basis. If these numbers hold up for the second half of FY 2012, can we expect EB5 to release 9,000 visas towards this year's spill-over?

[Spectator]

Spec, just a technical point - doesn't CO only look at demand data to determine the cut off date? With this simple algorithm, CO should determine that the supply for upcoming month > demand and should keep the dates current.

"During" a month, as the USCIS processes more cases and requests more visas, at some point, CO should say enough (if too many visas are requested) and keep those files pending. Then in the next bulletin, he should count those files, publish the demand data and then impose the cut off date. Clearly, this hasn't happened in May. It may happen in June.

If all AOS cases were approvable, then they are already approved and there is no demand > 250 to approve as of yet. Am I missing something here? Anyway, the VB should come out shortly and we will see what really takes place.sportsfan,

If the algorithm were that simple, you are correct.

CO is also allowed to use estimates of future demand as well. If he didn't, it becomes too late to take corrective action.

CO can only "see" the CP cases with certainty, since they are reported in advance to him by the Consulates.

For AOS, he has to rely on information from USCIS, historical trends or perhaps just gut feel. Once that is added onto the 250 in the Demand Data, the numbers may be more than he thinks are available for the month.

[Spectator]

Guys,

The following link provides some interesting EB5 statistics.

http://www.cis.org/north/strange-numbers-immigrant-investors-losing-interest-green-cards

There were only 375 EB5 applications filed in the first half of FY 2012 as compared to 1,150 applications filed in the first half of FY 2011. That's approximately 32% reduction in EB5 numbers on YOY basis. If these numbers hold up for the second half of FY 2012, can we expect EB5 to release 9,000 visas towards this year's spill-over?vedu,

Those numbers are for the I-829 to remove conditions on conditional GCs already given.

The GC was actually given 2 years previously. Even if they don't apply for conditions to be removed, it doesn't affect the current or past year EB5 usage.

For that, you need to look at the I-526 numbers, which show an increase in numbers.

If we compared I-526 applications as you have above for I-829, there were 2,771 EB5 applications filed in the first half of FY 2012 as compared to 1,600 applications filed in the first half of FY 2011.

That's approximately 73% increase in EB5 numbers on YOY basis.

Aren't statistics a wonderful thing!!

[vedu]

Spec,

Thanks for the explanation. While I was posting my last post, I had the fear about very same thing and you confirmed it! These numbers are wasted visas then...right?


vedu,

Those numbers are for the I-829 to remove conditions on conditional GCs already given.

The GC was actually given 2 years previously. Even if they don't apply for conditions to be removed, it doesn't affect the current or past year EB5 usage.

For that, you need to look at the I-526 numbers, which show an increase in numbers.

If we compared I-526 applications as you have above for I-829, there were 2,771 EB5 applications filed in the first half of FY 2012 as compared to 1,600 applications filed in the first half of FY 2011.

That's approximately 73% increase in EB5 numbers on YOY basis.

Aren't statistics a wonderful thing!!

[Spectator]

Q, asking for clarifications:

1. I don't think all of 2009 cases have made it into demand yet. 2009 when done should be between 10 and 15K eventually, and right now, it's showing only 4K. What's your take?

sportsfan,

Very simplistically, here's my take.

There are about 48k EB2-IC cases in the May USCIS Inventory.

The Demand Data shows 22k pre-adjudicated to date. At 6k / month, it should take about a further 4 months for USCIS to pre-adjudicate all the remaining cases.

[murali83]

sportsfan,

Very simplistically, here's my take.

There are about 48k EB2-IC cases in the May USCIS Inventory.

The Demand Data shows 22k pre-adjudicated to date. At 6k / month, it should take about a further 4 months for USCIS to pre-adjudicate all the remaining cases.

That is very good. That way they would have pre-adjudicated all remaining cases by september. Hopefully that will help them take wise decisions on date movement in fy 2013. USCIS actually cannot expect for anything better. They will have 48K preadjudicated cases for eb2-ic all the way until April 2010. So it should be a cakewalk for them to decide date movement at least for another 2 yrs.

[suninphx]

sportsfan,

Very simplistically, here's my take.

There are about 48k EB2-IC cases in the May USCIS Inventory.

The Demand Data shows 22k pre-adjudicated to date. At 6k / month, it should take about a further 4 months for USCIS to pre-adjudicate all the remaining cases.

Assuming inventory numbers to be correct is big assumption.

[Spectator]

Assuming inventory numbers to be correct is big assumption.suninphx,

Agreed, which is why I said it was simplistic, but ball park it probably holds good I think, even if the numbers rise a bit. USCIS pre-adjudicated 15.5k in the previous 2 months according to the Demand Data.

Any reason to think it could be way off?

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Agreed, which is why I said it was simplistic, but ball park it probably holds good I think, even if the numbers rise a bit. USCIS pre-adjudicated 15.5k in the previous 2 months according to the Demand Data.

Any reason to think it could be way off?

Unfortunately I have not seen any corelation between demand data and inventory. In frenzy days or otherwise. For me, demand data is what matters end of the day, because that is going to drive COD. That way we do not have to worry if USCIS is cleaning up 'approvals' from inventory data.

[qesehmk]

Sport, here is what i think.
#1 - Yes. Not all 2009 cases are there in demand data. We can safely assume that 2009 will have similar density as 2008 which is about 1.5K per month.
#2 - You are right - I didn't include PWMBs. They would be probably 2K in 2012.
#3 - I think it is easier to predict based on prior year. I would ask what has changed fundamentally? Is there a reason EB2ROW demand could increase. I think not. Is there a reason EB1 demand could increase - actually yes. Is there evidence? Indirectly yes in the form of trackitt. Directly in the form of 485s filed ... the evidence is 20% reduction than an increase. How about EB4/5? They may not yield 10K. But 6K is quite possible IMHO. So if not 67K, EB2 could be looking at 57K => ~28-30K for EB2IC.

Thank you for reminding me to be conservative. I guess - of late i haven't been :(

Q, asking for clarifications:

1. I don't think all of 2009 cases have made it into demand yet. 2009 when done should be between 10 and 15K eventually, and right now, it's showing only 4K. What's your take?

2. When counting how many are issued GCs, do we also need to add PWMBs? Or are they already accounted for in the 13K starting backlog?

3. Why do you think EB2-IC should receive similar numbers as the last year? Last year was exception - in fact it marked the highest ever SOFAD seen by EB2-IC (32K) and highest ever visas consumed by EB2 as a whole (67K). It certainly wasn't a "normal" year. Isn't the additional 10K expectation a little bullish? (I would love nothing else to happen BTW). It's somewhat comforting to me personally because I have seen you tending to be on the conservative side always.

[kd2008]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm

This has been updated to cover determinations issued between October 1, 2011 through March 31, 2012.

Spec, we need your analysis!!!

20,659 cases processed. 16,596 approved (certified+certified-expired). 80% approved. 20% Denied or withdrawn. Quite a few I guess went into audit. Who knows how many are those.

From the approved: 925 are from China, 8868 from India. India-China are 59% of the total. This is mind boggling. So ROW-M-P are just 41%.

[Spectator]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm

This has been updated to cover determinations issued between October 1, 2011 through March 31, 2012.

Spec, we need your analysis!!!

20,659 cases processed. 16,596 approved (certified+certified-expired). 80% approved. 20% Denied or withdrawn. Quite a few I guess went into audit. Who knows how many are those.

From the approved: 925 are from China, 8868 from India. India-China are 59% of the total. This is mind boggling. So ROW-M-P are just 41%.kd,

I have now updated the PERM posts in FACTS & DATA with the updated figures. The latest PDs Certified have a January 2012 PD, but the numbers are so low as to not be significant.

Eventually, I will update the PWD figures, but that might be a while.

[kd2008]

Thank you, Spec!


kd,

I have now updated the PERM posts in FACTS & DATA with the updated figures. The latest PDs Certified have a January 2012 PD, but the numbers are so low as to not be significant.

Eventually, I will update the PWD figures, but that might be a while.

[veni001]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm

This has been updated to cover determinations issued between October 1, 2011 through March 31, 2012.

Spec, we need your analysis!!!

20,659 cases processed. 16,596 approved (certified+certified-expired). 80% approved. 20% Denied or withdrawn. Quite a few I guess went into audit. Who knows how many are those.

From the approved: 925 are from China, 8868 from India. India-China are 59% of the total. This is mind boggling. So ROW-M-P are just 41%.

Thanks Kd,
Appropriate sections under FACTS AND DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) are updated.

Below is a quick summary of FY2012 Half-Year PERM Data compared to to FY 2010 & FY 2011 data.

FY2010:
Completions = 81,412
Certified = 70,237
Denied/Withdrawn = 11,175 (13.72%)

FY2011:
Completions = 73,207
Certified = 59,863
Denied/Withdrawn = 13,344 (18.22%)

FY2012: Half-Year
Completions = 20,825
Certified = 16,617
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,208 (20.20%)

It is evident that filings decreased (certifications delayed?) and denial rate increased.

Monthly PERM approvals vs i140 receipts can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations), data points towards higher EB1 demand!

[qesehmk]

veni

That's mindboggling data collection & crunching! It might be worthwhile to put the takeaway about what the data might be telling - in English. The reason being - it took me good 5-10 minutes to figure out what it was. So perhaps somebody new might not understand it at all.
Great compilation. I can't find any flaw in that logic. Great job!

Thanks Kd,
Appropriate sections under FACTS AND DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) are updated.

Below is a quick summary of FY2012 Half-Year PERM Data compared to to FY 2010 & FY 2011 data.

FY2010:
Completions = 81,412
Certified = 70,237
Denied/Withdrawn = 11,175 (13.72%)

FY2011:
Completions = 73,207
Certified = 59,863
Denied/Withdrawn = 13,344 (18.22%)

FY2012: Half-Year
Completions = 20,825
Certified = 16,617
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,208 (20.20%)

It is evident that filings decreased (certifications delayed?) and denial rate increased.

Monthly PERM approvals vs i140 receipts can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations), data points towards higher EB1 demand!

[Spectator]

Thanks Kd,
Appropriate sections under FACTS AND DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) are updated.

Below is a quick summary of FY2012 Half-Year PERM Data compared to to FY 2010 & FY 2011 data.

FY2010:
Completions = 81,412
Certified = 70,237
Denied/Withdrawn = 11,175 (13.72%)

FY2011:
Completions = 73,207
Certified = 59,863
Denied/Withdrawn = 13,344 (18.22%)

FY2012: Half-Year
Completions = 20,825
Certified = 16,617
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,208 (20.20%)

It is evident that filings decreased (certifications delayed?) and denial rate increased.

Monthly PERM approvals vs i140 receipts can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations), data points towards higher EB1 demand!Veni,

Just to add to your data and findings.

Doesn't that just reflect the fact that both FY2010 and FY2011 were years when the OFLC were clearing the backlog?

Interestingly, if you look at Certifications for the CY Priority Date Year, then they seem quite similar (Note:- 2011 is probably not fully complete yet).

PD 2009 - 48,737 Completions - 41,974 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 13.88%
PD 2010 - 49,201 Completions - 43,407 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 11.78%
PD 2011 - 48,515 Completions - 42,714 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 11.96%

I fully accept that those older cases cleared during the Backlog reduction exercise may have temporarily increased overall I-140 receipts in the system in EB2/EB3 . It isn't clear to me what the split might have been between EB2/EB3 and therefore how many might have led to the ability to actually file an I-485. i.e. has it resulted in a temporary hump in EB2-WW numbers and how long does that take to work through?

The balance has been steadily shifting to more IC (mainly I) cases and less WW cases. It would be interesting to know the EB2/EB3 split for EB2-ROW. How much has it shifted away from EB3 and towards EB2 over time?

[veni001]

veni

That's mindboggling data collection & crunching! It might be worthwhile to put the takeaway about what the data might be telling - in English. The reason being - it took me good 5-10 minutes to figure out what it was. So perhaps somebody new might not understand it at all.
Great compilation. I can't find any flaw in that logic. Great job!

Q,
I agree it's kind of high level picture, bottom line data is pointing towards higher EB1 usage!

I think Spec already point this from his data analysis.

[veni001]

Veni,

Just to add to your data and findings.

Doesn't that just reflect the fact that both FY2010 and FY2011 were years when the OFLC were clearing the backlog?

Interestingly, if you look at Certifications for the CY Priority Date Year, then they seem quite similar (Note:- 2011 is probably not fully complete yet).

PD 2009 - 48,737 Completions - 41,974 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 13.88%
PD 2010 - 49,201 Completions - 43,407 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 11.78%
PD 2011 - 48,515 Completions - 42,714 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 11.96%

I fully accept that those older cases cleared during the Backlog reduction exercise may have temporarily increased overall I-140 receipts in the system in EB2/EB3 . It isn't clear to me what the split might have been between EB2/EB3 and therefore how many might have led to the ability to actually file an I-485. i.e. has it resulted in a temporary hump in EB2-WW numbers and how long does that take to work through?

The balance has been steadily shifting to more IC (mainly I) cases and less WW cases. It would be interesting to know the EB2/EB3 split for EB2-ROW. How much has it shifted away from EB3 and towards EB2 over time?

Spec,
I agree with you, CY totals are very similar, and the shift is more towards IC (EB2).

With the current data points it is not that easy to figure out EB2/EB3 split for EB-ROW.

In addition, i am unsure about surge in i140 increase is entirely from EB1 or from EB2-NIW as well?

[Spectator]

I have now updated the PWD Data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Determination-Data-Analysis&p=2454#post2454) in FACTS & DATA with the FY2012 Q2 data.

[veni001]

I have now updated the PWD Data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Determination-Data-Analysis&p=2454#post2454) in FACTS & DATA with the FY2012 Q2 data.

Spec,
Thank you for the update, PWD Data also confirms the shift to EB2.

[usernameisnotvalid]

Now this is "original":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18327493

[vizcard]

Now this is "original":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18327493
This has been featured on Fareed Zakharia GPS as well.

[raj888]

Article indicating record usage of EB5 - expecting EB5 usage to be 6K this year.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/citizenship-sale-foreign-investors-flock-092400861.html

[mysati]

Saw this interesting post on Murthy's site...not sure how many have read it...provides good info on if prior I140s can be revoked and retention of earlier PDs.

http://www.murthy.com/2012/05/11/eb2-upgrades-priority-date-retention-and-online-degrees/

[Mavrick]

Strange that they haven't published Visa Bulletin yet...

[self.coach]

Self coach, Congratulations on the birth of your beautiful baby. Welcome Kushi!
.
Thanks Kanmani!

Self Coach: Congratulations on your new born baby. Hope both mother and baby are going great and healthy!
Prabhas
Thank you Prabhas. Both are doing well by God's grace.

self.coach - congratulations on the birth of Khushi. Its moments like this that make the whole immigration stuff seem very petty.
Thanks Vizcard. Totally agree. Moments like these make us realize what life's real priorities are.


Congrats to the new baby. Wish her all the happiness, health and weath. Congrats Self.Coach.

Thanks a lot Q! The support and love we get from this forum is amazing. Cheers!!

[green5]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5733.html





Employment- Based All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C C C C
2nd 01JAN09 U U 01JAN09 01JAN09
3rd 22JUL06 22SEP05 22SEP02 22JUL06 08JUN06

[Teja9999]

visa bullitien is published

[Spectator]

The July VB is out. http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5733.html

EB2-WW has retrogressed to 01JAN09 !!!


D. EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY
Continued heavy demand for numbers in the Employment Second preference category has required the establishment of a Worldwide cut-off date for the month of July. This action has been taken in an effort to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. Should there be an increase in the current demand pattern, it may be necessary to make this category completely “unavailable” prior to September 30, 2012.

The China and India Employment Second preference categories are already “unavailable”, and will remain so for the remainder of the fiscal year.

That basically says there are no visas left for EB2 this year.

Co has really screwed the pooch this year!!

I was wondering why there had been no EB2-WW approvals later than June 2, 2012. Maybe this is the reason.

[srimurthy]

Does that mean when spillover is available it goes to first IC as they are most retrogressed?
And EB2-WW will get the new visas in the next fiscal year when new set is avilable?


The July VB is out. http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5733.html

EB2-WW has retrogressed to 01JAN09 !!!



That basically says there are no visas left for EB2 this year.

[TeddyKoochu]

The July VB is out. http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5733.html

EB2-WW has retrogressed to 01JAN09 !!!

That basically says there are no visas left for EB2 this year.

Spec thanks for posting and giving everyone a heads up. Basically the numbers are in short supply, lets hope that EB1 does not retrogress. You are correct basically EB2 as a whole is done for the year as hardly any pre 2009 ROW cases should be there.

In the spillover pyramid EB2 ROW comes higher than EB2 retrogressed so it can potentially absorb any generated spillover from EB1 and EB5. Starting next year in Oct we have to keep a close eye on EB2 ROW forward movement because until Eb2 ROW becomes current again we cannot expect any spillover to EB2 I/C.

[kd2008]

OK! So this July visa bulletin, proves optimists wrong!

Q, the dates won't move at all for EB2-IC. So your prediction does not hold.

I think we all will be better off if we start making super pessimistic predictions.

In fact, as EB2-IC will be unavailable for so long, the porters will accumulate to nearly 1500 to 1800 cases by the end of this fiscal year. So even if, the dates become available in Oct 12 (start of FY 2013), they may start somewhere like June 2004 and slowly progress to 2007 and stall. Finally when the spillover season starts, the dates will move to 2008 at most.

In addition, EB2-ROW cases will accumulate. They will eat all of the Q1 and Q2 quota in FY 2013 without even reaching individual country quota. So there will not be any spillover in first three quarters of FY 2013.

[kd2008]

The July VB is out. http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5733.html

EB2-WW has retrogressed to 01JAN09 !!!



That basically says there are no visas left for EB2 this year.

Co has really screwed the pooch this year!!

I was wondering why there had been no EB2-WW approvals later than June 2, 2012. Maybe this is the reason.

Spec, this is a very bad omen for EB2 in general. If EB2-WW cases accumulate and they start filing at the start FY 2013, it may take up the whole year to clear the backlog leaving nothing for EB2-IC. I hope EB2 does not become like EB3.

[just_curious]

OK! So this July visa bulletin, proves optimists wrong!

this is exactly what I am thinking now... Looks like EB2-I is screwed up big time....

[Spectator]

OK! So this July visa bulletin, proves optimists wrong!

Q, the dates won't move at all for EB2-IC. So your prediction does not hold.

I think we all will be better off if we start making super pessimistic predictions.

In fact, as EB2-IC will be unavailable for so long, the porters will accumulate to nearly 1500 to 1800 cases by the end of this fiscal year. So even if, the dates become available in Oct 12 (start of FY 2013), they may start somewhere like June 2004 and slowly progress to 2007 and stall. Finally when the spillover season starts, the dates will move to 2008 at most.kd,

I am not so worried about porting initially and I still think EB2-I might start around Aug 15, 2007 in FY2013 (maybe slightly earlier). I admit to being a bit fuzzy about how the Unavailable status impacts porters finalizing the process.

I initial thought was about the effect of the accumulation of EB2-WW cases on SOFAD in FY2013. That is c. 6-7k for 3 months, or about 8-9k if there is already internal retrogression, that will be waiting for approval come FY2013.

It makes it more likely that EB2-WW will hit their limits in FY2013, starving EB2-IC of spillover towards SOFAD. It's something I need to think about, but that was my first thought. I might well be the perfect storm for EB2-IC in FY2013.

Possibly the shock of such severe retrogression has made my initial reaction too pessimistic.

[suninphx]

kd,

I am not so worried about porting initially and I still think EB2-I might start around Aug 15, 2007 in FY2013 (maybe slightly earlier).

I am more worried about the effect the accumulation of EB2-WW cases will do to SOFAD in FY2013. That is c. 6k for 3 months, or about 8k if there is already internal retrogression, that will be waiting for approval come FY2013.

It makes it more likely that EB2-WW will hit their limits in FY2013, starving EB2-IC of spillover towards SOFAD. It's something I need to think about, but that was my first thought. I might well be the perfect storm for EB2-IC in FY2013.

This not a good news. Spec, you were right all along raising warning alarms...

[vishnu]

eb3 row jumped quite a bit...so perhaps the eb2 row cut off dates implies an element of significant porting too?

[openaccount]

wow what has CO done in 2012, what a mess

--gave EADs to some 45k+ applicants
--decreased GC wait time to 1-2 yrs for about 8k applicants-2008 applicants who got lucky
--increased GC wait time to 1-2 yrs for about 5-8k applicants- mostly 2007 & some early 2008 who got screwed big time

[kd2008]

Spec, quick question. Suppose there is a minimal spillover from EB1 in the final month of FY 2012 (few hundreds to may just 1,000). Will that be allocated to EB2-IC or to EB2-ROW? My thinking was it would go to EB2-IC as the spillover is given in order of PDs. But considering EB2-IC is "U", wouldn't the spill over go to EB2-ROW?

Edit: Pardon my ignorance! Spillover happens to the most retrogressed countries in any category if and only if all countries in that category are current. So basically until EB2 ROW is current things will be quite bad because not only will EB2 ROW consume its own quota but will absorb any EB1 and EB5 spillover as well - Teddy's explanation!

[Eb2_Dec07]

Gurus based on this , when do you practically think dates will cross beyond Dec 2007 for EB2 India .

[self.coach]

wow what has CO done in 2012, what a mess

--gave EADs to some 45k+ applicants
--decreased GC wait time to 1-2 yrs for about 8k applicants-2008 applicants who got lucky
--increased GC wait time to 1-2 yrs for about 5-8k applicants- mostly 2007 & some early 2008 who got screwed big time

And yet mess that was probably life changing for some or most of those 45K+ applicants that got the EAD right? I appreciate the 2012 move.

[tatikonda]

Spec, quick question. Suppose there is a minimal spillover from EB1 in the final month of FY 2012 (few hundreds to may just 1,000). Will that be allocated to EB2-IC or to EB2-ROW? My thinking was it would go to EB2-IC as the spillover is given in order of PDs. But considering EB2-IC is "U", wouldn't the spill over go to EB2-ROW?

Edit: Pardon my ignorance! Spillover happens to the most retrogressed countries in any category if and only if all countries in that category are current. So basically until EB2 ROW is current things will be quite bad because not only will EB2 ROW consume its own quota but will absorb any EB1 and EB5 spillover as well - Teddy's explanation!

Certainly No more Visa to EB2 I/C. People are already talking about suing DOS for

1) allotting more than statutory cap limit to India/China and and messed up EB2 ROWers.
2) Allotting more than permitted visa for Q1-Q3 Limits ( < 27 %). ( Noit Sure ..)

Thank you

[TeddyKoochu]

OK! So this July visa bulletin, proves optimists wrong!

Q, the dates won't move at all for EB2-IC. So your prediction does not hold.

I think we all will be better off if we start making super pessimistic predictions.

In fact, as EB2-IC will be unavailable for so long, the porters will accumulate to nearly 1500 to 1800 cases by the end of this fiscal year. So even if, the dates become available in Oct 12 (start of FY 2013), they may start somewhere like June 2004 and slowly progress to 2007 and stall. Finally when the spillover season starts, the dates will move to 2008 at most.

In addition, EB2-ROW cases will accumulate. They will eat all of the Q1 and Q2 quota in FY 2013 without even reaching individual country quota. So there will not be any spillover in first three quarters of FY 2013.

KD, the approvals for EB2 I/C cases in Feb and March this year was way ahead of fundamentals. There was absolutely no decline in EB2 ROW this year and EB1 did not give any SOFAD. EB5 would also give lesser spillover considering extensive promotions going on. This way overall SOFAD to EB2 I/C would be closer to 20K assuming last year it was 34K with 12K less for Eb1 and at least 2K less for EB5. By liberal estimates EB2 I/C have already received 25K.
When the year started most predictions though often called pessimistic had suggested a date of Oct - Dec 2007. It was really good that people till May 2010 got a chance to file 485's I believe that count of cases was absolutely incorrect for that to have happened though but very good that everyone benefited.

Many of us including me were benefited by the feb - mar approval windfall this year. Unfortunately we still have some PWMB and 2007 cases still waiting. With the current situation in Oct 2012 the date for Eb2 I/C will be set at 01-Aug-2007 so that just PWMB and porting cases from Jul 2007 fiasco times are eligible.

[GhostWriter]

Spec, your predictions from months ago came true. Thanks for your analysis, it was accurate and much ahead of the time. A couple of questions.
- Do you think EB2-ROW will be current by the end of Sep-2012 or will it have cut-off date or unavailable status even when FY-2013 begins. The VB warns about EB2-ROW becoming "unavailable". What are the chances of that.
- I know it is too early and there are lots of unknowns but any rough ideas on how FY 2013 will look like for EB2-IC. Can EB2-IC expect any spillover from EB2-ROW if their demand reverts to prior year levels. Or does the current retrogression mean that it will take more than few months to clear EB2-ROW inventory.




The July VB is out. http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5733.html

EB2-WW has retrogressed to 01JAN09 !!!



That basically says there are no visas left for EB2 this year.

Co has really screwed the pooch this year!!

I was wondering why there had been no EB2-WW approvals later than June 2, 2012. Maybe this is the reason.

[GCHopes]

I respectfully disagree with Self.coach's assessment. I am sure everyone has their opinion based on their situation in life - just like mine!! I don't mind or disagree with the 45K EAD's that were given out as a result of the mess - but am very disappointed with finding out that people ahead were able to get their GC's while others ahead in line still left holding the bag!! What is the use of a Priority date if that's the case!! Why even have a system!! Getting tired of putting my and my family's life on hold - waiting on a hope!!

What a pity! I need to start a business of my own - start up - that's currently on hold due to this mess! Too many people's hopes, ambitions, plans, lives being put on hold just so the department can build their Inventory!!!! We are in the 21st century - we should be able to build out the inventory based on the filings, I-140's, etc. If you feel you are going to be short - overshoot the priority date by a month - or have separate dates for accepting applications and approving GC's !!!!! Anything else would better than the current option they engaged in.

[tatikonda]

I will be very surprised if this lawsuit ever materializes. You simply don't mess with the DOS/USCIS. At most, EB2-ROW will wait an additional 3 months - likely less, because they will get some spillover in September - and I don't think they will really lose their sleep over it. I won't if I was one of them.

SportsFans,

I am not saying that Rowers would sue DOS/USCIS.
I am talking about immigration lawyers talking about suing DOS/USCIS.
As everyone knows, every organization/dept should follow LAW, it appears that DOS Violated their statutory laws.

NO ONE IS ABOVE LAW..

Also, I agree, I won't file a case, if I was one among them ..

[Spectator]

Spec, your predictions from months ago came true. Thanks for your analysis, it was accurate and much ahead of the time. A couple of questions.
- Do you think EB2-ROW will be current by the end of Sep-2012 or will it have cut-off date or unavailable status even when FY-2013 begins. The VB warns about EB2-ROW becoming "unavailable". What are the chances of that.

I'm pretty sure EB2-WW will become Current in October 2012. 27% of the allocation is 9.3k and they can always use some QSP, if necessary.

From the May Inventory, EB2-WW only has about 1k cases before 2009 and not all of those may get approved, so the chances of becoming Unavailable must be considered low, but I don't know how close CO is sailing to the wind and whether EB1 usage is a factor.


- I know it is too early and there are lots of unknowns but any rough ideas on how FY 2013 will look like for EB2-IC. Can EB2-IC expect any spillover from EB2-ROW if their demand reverts to prior year levels. Or does the current retrogression mean that it will take more than few months to clear EB2-ROW inventory.

I need to think about that a bit more.

As I have said before, I don't think CO will be as aggressive in using QSP for EB2-IC benefit in FY2013. That has basically caused EB2 to run out of visas 3-4 months before the end of the year.

[openaccount]

Q, don't you think UCIS inventory released in May & I-140 statistics has not covered all Eb2ROW/Eb1 numbers. If it was accurate dates should not have retrogressed for EB2ROW unless CO has allocated more than 25K to EB2IC in first half of FY2012.

I am saying this as your predictions were based on data from USCIS and we have seen USCIS missing(not added to inventory) lot of numbers in inventory report released earlier this year in January similar thing could have happened in May also especially for EB2ROW/EB1, just a guess.

[EB2Dec2007]

Spec,

Do you mean October 2012 or 2013?




I'm pretty sure EB2-WW will become Current in October 2013. 27% of the allocation is 9.3k and they can always use some QSP, if necessary.

From the May Inventory, EB2-WW only has about 1k cases before 2009 and not all of those may get approved, so the chances of becoming Unavailable must be considered low, but I don't know how close CO is sailing to the wind and whether EB1 usage is a factor.



I need to think about that a bit more.

As I have said before, I don't think CO will be as aggressive in using QSP for EB2-IC benefit in FY2013. That has basically caused EB2 to run out of visas 3-4 months before the end of the year.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Spec. I assume and hope you meant October 2012 in the first sentence. What is the legally correct spillover procedure - annual or quarterly. Or is the law open-ended (like most things written by lawyers :)).
If it is supposed to be quarterly then there is nothing wrong done in EB2-ROW having a cut-off date and he should do it again next year without any fear. If it supposed to be annual then did he do QSP this year only to reduce the waittime of people waiting for visa for last 5 years (2007-08) or was there any other reason.


I'm pretty sure EB2-WW will become Current in October 2013. 27% of the allocation is 9.3k and they can always use some QSP, if necessary.

From the May Inventory, EB2-WW only has about 1k cases before 2009 and not all of those may get approved, so the chances of becoming Unavailable must be considered low, but I don't know how close CO is sailing to the wind and whether EB1 usage is a factor.



I need to think about that a bit more.

As I have said before, I don't think CO will be as aggressive in using QSP for EB2-IC benefit in FY2013. That has basically caused EB2 to run out of visas 3-4 months before the end of the year.

[TorreyPines]

Guys,

EB2 ROW COD seems to be very near to what people projected had HR3012 became law. It is hard to believe CO put a blind eye to ROW's demand so much that he would put a COD for them. Something is missing here. This year, active legislation towards any bill has atmost 2 months time frame from now, and in CO's perspective it is one or two VBs away. Is he preparing for something inevitable?

I wasn't an optimist on HR3012 (or the concept of country cap removal happening) till date but am starting to believe it more than the fact the CO overlooked this much.

Have a nice week, it is still Monday.

PS:
1. No offence to spec's numbers, and intelligence; this is just another line of thinking.
2. There are multiple bills with country cap removal and just not HR 3012.

[Spectator]

Thanks for pointing out my typo - I have corrected it in the original post.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. I assume and hope you meant October 2012 in the first sentence. What is the legally correct spillover procedure - annual or quarterly. Or is the law open-ended (like most things written by lawyers :)).
If it is supposed to be quarterly then there is nothing wrong done in EB2-ROW having a cut-off date and he should do it again next year without any fear. If it supposed to be annual then did he do QSP this year only to reduce the waittime of people waiting for visa for last 5 years (2007-08) or was there any other reason.GhostWriter,

When CO talked about the Spillover Rule in the May 2011 VB he said:


Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)

INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits.

The emphasis is mine. Since the law allows CO to use estimated Demand, I don't think he has to use spillover visas within the quarter and we all know that this is how it has operated previously. In the same VB, he also explained further:


The rate of number use under Section 202(a)(5) is continually monitored to determine whether subsequent adjustments are needed in visa availability for the oversubscribed countries. This helps assure that all available Employment preference numbers will be used, while insuring that numbers also remain available for applicants from all other countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit.

Again my emphasis.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Guys,

EB2 ROW COD seems to be very near to what people projected had HR3012 became law. It is hard to believe CO put a blind eye to ROW's demand so much that he would put a COD for them. Something is missing here. This year, active legislation towards any bill has atmost 2 months time frame from now, and in CO's perspective it is one or two VBs away. Is he preparing for something inevitable?

I wasn't an optimist on HR3012 (or the concept of country cap removal happening) till date but am starting to believe it more than the fact the CO overlooked this much.

Have a nice week, it is still Monday.

PS:
1. No offence to spec's numbers, and intelligence; this is just another line of thinking.
2. There are multiple bills with country cap removal and just not HR 3012.

If what you are saying is true, than that is the best news but I am afraid, that is not the case probably. It is very hard to get any immigration related bills passed by either party when elections are so near. No one would take that risk and I really highly doubt, if any immigration related bill would become a law before elections. Many other bills which have been introduced in the House and Senate, which include elimination of country-based caps in employment category, is nothing but pure tokenism in my opinion. The only hope of any immigration related bill passing during this year is lame duck session which would happen after elections.

I really don't think CO put a cut-off date on EB2ROW because he thinks/knows that HR 3012 or similar bill with elimination of country-caps in employment category is going to become a law in near future. I think the EB2ROW COD was imposed just because of false estimation of EB2IC demand and over-allocation of visas to EB2IC. Now, whether it was a calculated move or a mistake, the end result is complete mess.

Yes, I know people have got EADs and APs because of this crazy movement and I think that is not bad at all. I actually consider it a positive thing but this entire immigration system needs a major revamp to make it more logical and practical, i.e. point based system.

When it comes to the data analysis and being transparent, USCIS/DOS can be extremely efficient and competent at being inefficient and incompetent. :p This has been said many times by respected Immigration lawyers. I think this case is no different. S**t has hit the fan finally to nobody's surprise.

[GhostWriter]

Ok, thanks Spec. So it is open-ended since no one can predict the demand in future quarters. If he expects it to be low he will use QSP else not. Given he expected it to be at prior year levels and did use QSP and it turned out to be higher he is less likely to try it aggressively again next year (as you, vizcard and others suggest). So if EB2-IC remains unavailable till Sep-2012 and there is no or little QSP employed in Oct-Dec 2012 and given there are 4000 2007 EB2-IC cases in the latest demand data we will have to be very lucky to get to Jan-2008 by Jan-2013.



GhostWriter,

When CO talked about the Spillover Rule in the May 2011 VB he said:



The emphasis is mine. Since the law allows CO to use estimated Demand, I don't think he has to use spillover visas within the quarter and we all know that this is how it has operated previously. In the same VB, he also explained further:



Again my emphasis.

[murali83]

Ok, thanks Spec. So it is open-ended since no one can predict the demand in future quarters. If he expects it to be low he will use QSP else not. Given he expected it to be at prior year levels and did use QSP and it turned out to be higher he is less likely to try it aggressively again next year (as you, vizcard and others suggest). So if EB2-IC remains unavailable till Sep-2012 and there is no or little QSP employed in Oct-Dec 2012 and given there are 4000 2007 EB2-IC cases in the latest demand data we will have to be very lucky to get to Jan-2008 by Jan-2013.

GhostWriter,

4000 is just demand data. approx 6500 is the pending inventory for EB2I-C for dates prior to Jan 1, 2008. I am sure that the demand data will approach 6500 pretty soon. The annual default for EB2I-C is 5600. But once dates move forward from "U", porting will slowly start. So CO has to make some smart decisions. He will probably keep dates where the 5600 can balance some porting and also provide visas to guys between Aug 15, 2007 and Dec 31, 2007. I would say that date is somewhere in Oct 2007. At the end of the quarter, I doubt we will get much since EB2Row wont yield much in Q1. Dates might move beyond Oct 2007 sometime in Q2. CO can stop some porting if he keeps making it U for some intermittent periods of time.

[GhostWriter]

Good point murali83, thanks. Yes the demand numbers for 2007 will increase as remaining 2007 cases get pre-adjudicated. So even tougher times ahead.
FY 2012 started with July 2007 and will end at Aug 2007. 1 month of movement in 1 year. Glad that 40K people including me got EADs. Life could have been worse.


GhostWriter,

4000 is just demand data. approx 6500 is the pending inventory for EB2I-C for dates prior to Jan 1, 2008. I am sure that the demand data will approach 6500 pretty soon. The annual default for EB2I-C is 5600. But once dates move forward from "U", porting will slowly start. So CO has to make some smart decisions. He will probably keep dates where the 5600 can balance some porting and also provide visas to guys between Aug 15, 2007 and Dec 31, 2007. I would say that date is somewhere in Oct 2007. At the end of the quarter, I doubt we will get much since EB2Row wont yield much in Q1. Dates might move beyond Oct 2007 sometime in Q2. CO can stop some porting if he keeps making it U for some intermittent periods of time.

[Spectator]

GhostWriter,

4000 is just demand data. approx 6500 is the pending inventory for EB2I-C for dates prior to Jan 1, 2008. I am sure that the demand data will approach 6500 pretty soon. The annual default for EB2I-C is 5600. But once dates move forward from "U", porting will slowly start. So CO has to make some smart decisions. He will probably keep dates where the 5600 can balance some porting and also provide visas to guys between Aug 15, 2007 and Dec 31, 2007. I would say that date is somewhere in Oct 2007. At the end of the quarter, I doubt we will get much since EB2Row wont yield much in Q1. Dates might move beyond Oct 2007 sometime in Q2. CO can stop some porting if he keeps making it U for some intermittent periods of time.murali83,

I agree it is better to look at the Inventory at the moment, since many more cases will be pre-adjudicated by October 2012.

I think we also have to look at EB2-C separately from EB2-I because of the very different numbers. I know the Inventory numbers will change, but it still illustrates the point.

The initial allocation of 2.8k can take EB2-C to a COD of July 1, 2008, so China will reach that date even if there is no spillover. If they are allocated 27% or 757 visas in Q1, their COD would move to Nov 1, 2007.

This is in contrast to EB2-I, where 2.8k can only move EB2-C to about mid August 2007. 757 visas would reach April 1 2007. To reach Nov 1, 2007, EB2-I would need 4,321 visas. That would mean EB2-IC receiving 5,058 visas in Q1 FY2013 if the COD were to remain the same.

To reach a COD of July 1, 2008 EB2-I would require 13.6k.

So unless SOFAD reaches at least 16.4k (2.8 + 13.6), EB2-C is likely to have a later COD than EB2-I. Only if the ending COD is later than July 1, 2008 will EB2-C receive any spillover visas and the COD will then be the same as EB2-I.

Those numbers do not include any additional porting numbers and are based on the May Inventory, which will probably rise.

I'll leave you to decide what level of SOFAD you think is likely in FY2013.

The figures are to illustrate some of the potential problems, not to say that is what would happen.

[murali83]

Good point murali83, thanks. Yes the demand numbers for 2007 will increase as remaining 2007 cases get pre-adjudicated. So even tougher times ahead.
FY 2012 started with July 2007 and will end at Aug 2007. 1 month of movement in 1 year. Glad that 40K people including me got EADs. Life could have been worse.

FY 2012 started from April 15, 2007. Lots of people beyond Aug 2007 got greened. Considering the dense year 2007 is, I would say FY 2012 is not that bad. I think we are all down now, becos of all these swings. If USCIS had been organized, dates for FY2012 would have ended at somewhere in 1st or 2nd week of Dec 2007. Considering a dense year like 2007 and the fact that we had 8K pending carryover cases, it is quite an achievement.

So we got 25K visas this year, I would say not bad at all, especially after EB1 carried over so many cases from last year. Just to sound a little optimistic for next year. I would say from Oct 2012, we should be ok and next year, I dont expect CO to give us unnecessary optimism or depression. It will be a dull and predictable year. The only icing will be EB1 (EB1 demand will be same, but since there wont be as heavy a carryover from FY 2012 to FY 2013 as we had in EB1 from 2011 to 2012), it might yield 3-4K extra visas, but that will be gobbled up by the EB2ROW pending from this year due to this cutoff date imposed on them. So that evens out. So we should get an effective sofad next year in the range of 20-25K. Spec's original prediction of EB2I-C standing at Aug-Sep 2008 at the end of FY 2013 is just about right in my opinion.

But when in FY 2013 these dates will be realized is anyone's guess.

[murali83]

murali83,

I agree it is better to look at the Inventory at the moment, since many more cases will be pre-adjudicated by October 2012.

I think we also have to look at EB2-C separately from EB2-I because of the very different numbers. I know the Inventory numbers will change, but it still illustrates the point.

The initial allocation of 2.8k can take EB2-C to a COD of July 1, 2008, so China will reach that date even if there is no spillover. If they are allocated 27% or 757 visas in Q1, their COD would move to Nov 1, 2007.

This is in contrast to EB2-I, where 2.8k can only move EB2-C to about mid August 2007. 757 visas would reach April 1 2007. To reach Nov 1, 2007, EB2-I would need 4,321 visas. That would mean EB2-IC receiving 5,058 visas in Q1 FY2013 if the COD were to remain the same.

To reach a COD of July 1, 2008 EB2-I would require 13.6k.

So unless SOFAD reaches at least 16.4k (2.8 + 13.6), EB2-C is likely to have a later COD than EB2-I. Only if the ending COD is later than July 1, 2008 will EB2-C receive any spillover visas and the COD will then be the same as EB2-I.

Those numbers do not include any additional porting numbers and are based on the May Inventory, which will probably rise.

I'll leave you to decide what level of SOFAD you think is likely in FY2013.

The figures are to illustrate some of the potential problems, not to say that is what would happen.

Spec,

you beat me to it. I was just about to correct my post and write about Eb2-C behaving differently. Thanks for the detail. So as of now, I think it is worthless to predict what will happen at the sofad level.

[qesehmk]

Guys - This is quite a mess. USCIS/DOS should be ashamed of themselves. Honestly I was overestimating their intelligence and implementation and adherence of law as well as common sense.

Before we come to that - first I must admit - that it is quite clear that I overshot. I guess I will have to go back and figure out where I may have missed. And will do that ... I promise.

But following language is so clear that we just have to take this at its face value.


This action has been taken in an effort to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. Should there be an increase in the current demand pattern, it may be necessary to make this category completely “unavailable” prior to September 30, 2012.
The China and India Employment Second preference categories are already “unavailable”, and will remain so for the remainder of the fiscal year.


So what may have happened? Who is the culprit here? Who consumed more compared to last year? I think what may have happened is a triple whammy for EB2 category. First EB4 probably has given less to none SOFAD. EB5 probably yielded 0-4K. EB1 probably not only used up the entire quota but also absorbed whatever little came from EB4/5. So EB2 is on its own. EB2IC already probably received 20K. Could be as high as 22K. Remaining 18K is barely enough for EB2ROW and hence the retrogression.

If you think about it - all these numbers we talk about - there is very little direct evidence of actual consumption. So we pretty much rely on trackitt data using relative measures. But I didn't use trackitt this year for the simple reason that the trackitt ratio of 26 real cases per trackitt case, was not valid anymore this year. So it was fruitless to ues trackitt data anyway. I-140 didn't really point to a massive EB1 increase. So it only means EB1 could see some real significant decrease in its backlog. We will see... as I said - we need to hear through AILA or somebody how many visas actually were issued.

Now coming back to CO / USCIS / DOS. I really think that I overestimated their intelligence / common sense. They have created a bigger mess compared to 2007. Imagine this - 1//3rd of 2008 people got their GCs quite fast. Whereas 4K of 2007 folks are waiting. And ROW probaby got robbed off their rightful quota under current law. Either that or CO hasn't been following law all these years. i.e. If his explanation is he only applied spillover - then that doesn't cut it since how come he did it while starving EB2ROW? Just doesn't make sense.

I think the only positive thing that EB2IC should hope for (and actually there are 2 of them) - is A) HR3012 goes through B) Or at least that EB2IC and EB2ROW monthly demand is around 1.6K-2K max. Looking at the labor data, EB2 indeed should have total annual demand of 36-40K (i.e. 3.2-3.3K per month). If that remains true - then EB2IC should still expect to receive GC in about 4 years from PD which means that all of 2008 would still be easily cleared in 2013 itself.

That brings me to our original prediction. If CO had performed strict FIFO on EB2IC, then we wouldve seen EB2IC dates in Mar 2008. But since he chose to do violent movements and then approve randomly (I don' trust anymore that there is any method to their madness), that really robbed off from 2007 and Q1 2008 EB2IC applicants.

So all the pessimism aside - be hopeful that EB2IC will be cleared through at least Dec 2008 by Sep 2013.

p.s. Torrey Pines - what you said about HR3012 is logical but here are two things that go contrary. A) Under HR3012 there are provisions to ensure that EB2ROW is not starved and that there is a 3 year transition period. B) Even if HR3012 becomes a law somehow, as far as this year is concerned there it seems just aren't any visas left for EB2IC to really hope for. So perhaps what you pointed out could be a strange coincidence. But who knows .... you could be right!

[Jonty Rhodes]

Gurus, quick question. Just asking for curiosity.

How did they pick a date of Jan 1, 2009 for EB2ROW. Was it done mainly to limit porting from EB3ROW to EB2ROW since it is hard to believe that anybody who directly filed under EB2ROW category before Jan 1, 2009 is still having pending application. Most of them who file under EB2ROW get their GCs from 6-18 months max.

[veni001]

Thanks Kd,
Appropriate sections under FACTS AND DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) are updated.

Below is a quick summary of FY2012 Half-Year PERM Data compared to to FY 2010 & FY 2011 data.

FY2010:
Completions = 81,412
Certified = 70,237
Denied/Withdrawn = 11,175 (13.72%)

FY2011:
Completions = 73,207
Certified = 59,863
Denied/Withdrawn = 13,344 (18.22%)

FY2012: Half-Year
Completions = 20,825
Certified = 16,617
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,208 (20.20%)

It is evident that filings decreased (certifications delayed?) and denial rate increased.

Monthly PERM approvals vs i140 receipts can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations), data points towards higher EB1 demand!


Spec,
I agree with you, CY totals are very similar, and the shift is more towards IC (EB2).

With the current data points it is not that easy to figure out EB2/EB3 split for EB-ROW.

In addition, i am unsure about surge in i140 increase is entirely from EB1 or from EB2-NIW as well?


Guys - This is quite a mess.

............................
............................

If you think about it - all these numbers we talk about - there is very little direct evidence of actual consumption. So we pretty much rely on trackitt data using relative measures. But I didn't use trackitt this year for the simple reason that the trackitt ratio of 26 real cases per trackitt case, was not valid anymore this year. So it was fruitless to ues trackitt data anyway. I-140 didn't really point to a massive EB1 increase. So it only means EB1 could see some real significant decrease in its backlog. We will see... as I said - we need to hear through AILA or somebody how many visas actually were issued.
........................
.........................

Q,
Please check i-140 data for first half of FY2012 from FACTS AND DATA SECTION (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations)

[Spectator]

FY 2012 started from April 15, 2007. Lots of people beyond Aug 2007 got greened. Considering the dense year 2007 is, I would say FY 2012 is not that bad. I think we are all down now, becos of all these swings. If USCIS had been organized, dates for FY2012 would have ended at somewhere in 1st or 2nd week of Dec 2007. Considering a dense year like 2007 and the fact that we had 8K pending carryover cases, it is quite an achievement.

So we got 25K visas this year, I would say not bad at all, especially after EB1 carried over so many cases from last year. Just to sound a little optimistic for next year. I would say from Oct 2012, we should be ok and next year, I dont expect CO to give us unnecessary optimism or depression. It will be a dull and predictable year. The only icing will be EB1 (EB1 demand will be same, but since there wont be as heavy a carryover from FY 2012 to FY 2013 as we had in EB1 from 2011 to 2012), it might yield 3-4K extra visas, but that will be gobbled up by the EB2ROW pending from this year due to this cutoff date imposed on them. So that evens out. So we should get an effective sofad next year in the range of 20-25K. Spec's original prediction of EB2I-C standing at Aug-Sep 2008 at the end of FY 2013 is just about right in my opinion.

But when in FY 2013 these dates will be realized is anyone's guess.murali,

You are far more optimistic than I am.

As I have repeatedly stated, 35-36k is the normal rate for EB1 (based on I-140 receipts and denials for EB1A, EB1B & EB1C published by USCIS). EB1 was abnormally low in FY2011 because of delays introduced by the Kazarian ruling. I still hold to that view. No EB1 I-140 numbers have been published since July 19, 2011, but I have no reason to believe they have diminished. I realise I am in a minority of exactly one who holds that view.

EB2-WW will use 6-8k more next year because of COD retrogression, so I don't think we can expect much, if any, spillover from them.

EB5 will not yield more than 5k spillover, probably less.

That leaves SOFAD at about 15k for EB2-IC. EB2-C would use 2.8k and EB2-I would use 12.2k.

That would take EB2-C to July 1, 2008 and EB2-I to about April 1, 2008 based on 3k porting cases yet to come. If the Inventory numbers rise, the dates will slip back from that date for EB2-I.

Maybe given that not all cases are ever approved, EB2-IC will end at mid year 2008.

Currently, with the information available, I would say 20k SOFAD for EB2-IC in FY2013 would be an outstanding result. That would probably see EB2-IC both finish around August/September 2008, assuming some cases are left behind.

Still, much may happen before the year end, so let's wait and see.

[openaccount]

That would take EB2-C to July 1, 2008 and EB2-I to about April 1, 2008 based on 3k porting cases yet to come. If the Inventory numbers rise, the dates will slip back from that date for EB2-I.
Maybe given that not all cases are ever approved, EB2-IC will end at mid year 2008.

Spec, we have seen in past year or so porting is at minimum of 5k i think it is going to increase with economy improving there is no reason for that to drop. With 5k I won't be surprised if 2013 ends with Jan-Feb2008 even with some cases not being approved.



EB2-WW will use 6-8k more next year because of COD retrogression, so I don't think we can expect much, if any, spillover from them.
EB5 will not yield more than 5k spillover, probably less.
That leaves SOFAD at about 15k for EB2-IC. EB2-C would use 2.8k and EB2-I would use 12.2k.


If Eb5 gives 5K then from where are you expecting remaining 4-5k to yield 12.2K SOFAD for EB2I?

[Spectator]

Spec, we have seen in past year or so porting is at minimum of 5k i think it is going to increase with economy improving there is no reason for that to drop. With 5k I won't be surprised if 2013 ends with Jan-Feb2008 even with some cases not being approved.

I wouldn't argue that point, but I don't want to be overly pessimistic either.


If Eb5 gives 5K then from where are you expecting remaining 4-5k to yield 12.2K SOFAD for EB2I?

EB1 at 35-36k would yield 4-5k spillover.

[qesehmk]

veni
as i said the other day - i found your logic flawless. Wonder if you tried to cross check the result of that analysis and verify with the actual EB1 approvals and SOFAD in those years? I bet the actual EB1 approvals don't have that huge variation as the result indicates. So i think - while the thought process is very good.... something is missing there veni. I don't know what. But just cross check against actuals from those years and you will understand what I am saying.

p.s. Did you notice that 2009-2010-2011 total 140 receipts increased consistently while this year they are decreasing? That in fact would made me believe that this year we should've seen even more sofad? Why? Because in the end - its the total 140 receipts that matter - not the individual breakup (well I take that half back -- since EB2IC I-140 if less is a bad news for SOFAD).... but i hope you get the point.


Q,
Please check i-140 data for first half of FY2012 from FACTS AND DATA SECTION (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations)

[veni001]

veni
as i said the other day - i found your logic flawless. Wonder if you tried to cross check the result of that analysis and verify with the actual EB1 approvals and SOFAD in those years? I bet the actual EB1 approvals don't have that huge variation as the result indicates. So i think - while the thought process is very good.... something is missing there veni. I don't know what. But just cross check against actuals from those years and you will understand what I am saying.

p.s. Did you notice that 2009-2010-2011 total 140 receipts increased consistently while this year they are decreasing? That in fact would made me believe that this year we should've seen even more sofad? Why? Because in the end - its the total 140 receipts that matter - not the individual breakup (well I take that half back -- since EB2IC I-140 if less is a bad news for SOFAD).... but i hope you get the point.

Q,

FY2009:
PERM Certifications:29,502
i-140 Receipts:57,011

FY2010:
PERM Certifications:70,237
i-140 Receipts:77,280

FY2011:
PERM Certifications:59,863
i-140 Receipts:81,678

FY2012: Half-Year
PERM Certifications:16,566
i-140 Receipts:32,473

I agree i-140 receipts show decline for FY2012, but the delta between PERM Certifications and i-140 receipts is inversely proportional to SOFAD.

As you can see from the data above, PERM certifications decreased at a faster rate than i-140 receipts and the delta is increasing from 2010-2011-2012(half year).

[murali83]

Spec

I guess i got optimistic, but I am happy that I am at least within 3 to 4 months off your range.

Now let me ask you some questions wrt eb1.

I know that you had mentioned that EB1 usually is in the range of 35 to 36,000 over the years.

In 2011, the approvals were less because of the memo. In that case approvals in 2012 should have exceeded 36,000 because of the backlog carried over from 2011. I assume we should see that soon.

So my whole issue is this. Lets say eb2 i-c should have got just 19k visas this year, but we got 5 k more ( we stole that from eb2 row). Assuming demand for eb2 row stays same next year, we will get 5 k lesser sofad next year which is around 14k.

But then eb1 haunts me again. If eb1 has an average demand of 36k visas every year, but in 2011 they saw dismal approvals. In 2012 they squared that off by essentially taking up everything. This means that even if we did not rob eb2row of their 5 k visas, the 19k sofad we would have got will come from eb2 row, eb4 and eb 5. Eb 1 has used their entire 40 k and even more this year and has not yielded us anything.

But next year they may yield 4-5 k, taking sofad from 14k to 19 k.

So in essence, i feel eb1 gave us nothing this year, in fact they probably used 36k + maybe 10k unapproved cases from last year.

[qesehmk]

KD - Touche! It indeed proved the optimists wrong. I am perplexed given that the YoY reduction in I-140 receipts, how can this happen. As of now I do not know - other than to say EB1 better show little to none inventory in Oct 2012.
As per 2013 - I am not as concerned, since I would think that the retrogression would hurt EB2ROW max by 5K ie. equivalent to 3 month run rate. Moving the dates is not as logical - so CO can do anything. The question is till what date backlog will be cleared. I would still bet Dec 2008 in 2013 .. we can say with some certainty after we see Oct 2012 485 inventory and approval data. That's a looooong time from now!

OK! So this July visa bulletin, proves optimists wrong!

Q, the dates won't move at all for EB2-IC. So your prediction does not hold.

I think we all will be better off if we start making super pessimistic predictions.

In fact, as EB2-IC will be unavailable for so long, the porters will accumulate to nearly 1500 to 1800 cases by the end of this fiscal year. So even if, the dates become available in Oct 12 (start of FY 2013), they may start somewhere like June 2004 and slowly progress to 2007 and stall. Finally when the spillover season starts, the dates will move to 2008 at most.

In addition, EB2-ROW cases will accumulate. They will eat all of the Q1 and Q2 quota in FY 2013 without even reaching individual country quota. So there will not be any spillover in first three quarters of FY 2013.

openaccount - i am more concerned about 140 numbers. Given the overall decrease in those numbers, they clearly indicated towards more SOFAD in 2012 compared to 2011 (unless USCIS chose to clear entire EB1 backlog coupled with strong increase in EB4/5). The USCIS inventory - indeed is flawed since it doesnt show 485 cases with unapproved 485s.

Q, don't you think UCIS inventory released in May & I-140 statistics has not covered all Eb2ROW/Eb1 numbers. If it was accurate dates should not
have retrogressed for EB2ROW unless CO has allocated more than 25K to EB2IC in first half of FY2012.

I am saying this as your predictions were based on data from USCIS and we have seen USCIS missing(not added to inventory) lot of numbers in inventory report released earlier this year in January similar thing could have happened in May also especially for EB2ROW/EB1, just a guess.


Q,

FY2009:
PERM Certifications:29,502
i-140 Receipts:57,011

FY2010:
PERM Certifications:70,237
i-140 Receipts:77,280

FY2011:
PERM Certifications:59,863
i-140 Receipts:81,678

FY2012: Half-Year
PERM Certifications:16,566
i-140 Receipts:32,473

I agree i-140 receipts show decline for FY2012, but the delta between PERM Certifications and i-140 receipts is inversely proportional to SOFAD.

As you can see from the data above, PERM certifications decreased at a faster rate than i-140 receipts and the delta is increasing from 2010-2011-2012(half year).

Veni - I understand this. I am talking about the net EB1 140s you calculated and then tying that to actual EB1 approvals in 2009-10-11-12. I am sure they dont quite match up well and the variation is much less compared to what the 140 numbers would make you believe.

[murali83]

Q,

I agree with you on the eb1 front. Thats what i think has happened. When we get the annual report, it will not be surprising if eb1 has been given 45k visas in 2012. But i still think the realistic scenario for fy 2013 is somewhere near july 2008.

But would it be wrong on the part of uscis, if they had kept eb2 row current and made eb4 and 5 "U".

[qesehmk]

Murali - we will know better with some real hard data about 2012. As per EB4/5 making U would be so wrong to keep EB2ROW current. EB4/5 are entitled to their quota. Only after they don't have demand could those numbers fall down.
Q,

I agree with you on the eb1 front. Thats what i think has happened. When we get the annual report, it will not be surprising if eb1 has been given 45k visas in 2012. But i still think the realistic scenario for fy 2013 is somewhere near july 2008.

But would it be wrong on the part of uscis, if they had kept eb2 row current and made eb4 and 5 "U".

[murali83]

Murali - we will know better with some real hard data about 2012. As per EB4/5 making U would be so wrong to keep EB2ROW current. EB4/5 are entitled to their quota. Only after they don't have demand could those numbers fall down.

Q,

So realistically, eb2 row dates could move ahead before october, if eb4 or 5 can give them something.

[Spectator]

Spec

I guess i got optimistic, but I am happy that I am at least within 3 to 4 months off your range.

Now let me ask you some questions wrt eb1.

I know that you had mentioned that EB1 usually is in the range of 35 to 36,000 over the years.

In 2011, the approvals were less because of the memo. In that case approvals in 2012 should have exceeded 36,000 because of the backlog carried over from 2011. I assume we should see that soon.

So my whole issue is this. Lets say eb2 i-c should have got just 19k visas this year, but we got 5 k more ( we stole that from eb2 row). Assuming demand for eb2 row stays same next year, we will get 5 k lesser sofad next year which is around 14k.

But then eb1 haunts me again. If eb1 has an average demand of 36k visas every year, but in 2011 they saw dismal approvals. In 2012 they squared that off by essentially taking up everything. This means that even if we did not rob eb2row of their 5 k visas, the 19k sofad we would have got will come from eb2 row, eb4 and eb 5. Eb 1 has used their entire 40 k and even more this year and has not yielded us anything.

But next year they may yield 4-5 k, taking sofad from 14k to 19 k.

So in essence, i feel eb1 gave us nothing this year, in fact they probably used 36k + maybe 10k unapproved cases from last year.murali,

You are assuming that USCIS have the capability to process the normal EB1 run rate AND clear the increase in the backlog created in FY2011.

While it is difficult to estimate EB1 numbers with any accuracy (because Trackitt numbers have fluctuated dramatically), I have not seen the evidence that that EB1 approvals will reach and exceed 40k yet. It is quite possible numbers will pick up for the remainder of the year.

I would estimate SOFAD for EB2-IC this year in the 23-25k range.

I agree with Q that we need to see the data from USCIS for late in the FY. USCIS haven't even published the March 2012 Data on Individual Applications and Petitions yet.

I want to scale back from saying more and wait for better information before commenting further.

It really is a mess and I feel sorry for everybody in EB2 - IC and ROW alike.

[murali83]

Spec,

You are right in a way. But with now eb2 row having a cod, they will have some extra time to process eb1 cases. So as you said, in the coming months they may cross 40k (i believe they will).

USCIS better get its number co-ordination right soon or else the trauma might continue. A reasonable intake and slightly more managed processing time and GC issuance for eb2 i-c would have benifitted all and qsp would have been appreciated across the board. But now they have burnt their fingers and they will go back to old style.

[justvisiting]

I have been reading your blog as a guest for the past 6 months. I truly admire the work Spec, Q, Veni and others do. For the first time, I feel like I have something to contributte to the conversation.

The discrepancy between (140-PERM), as you know, can come from EB1 or EB2NIW. Also, a PERM approved one year may not show up as an I-140 until the next year.

That said, I added all the numbers FY09-12. This gives a total of 176168 PERM and 248442 I-140. The difference is 72274. Averaged out over 3.5 years that gives 20650/yr.

For FY2009 and FY2010, the number of EB-1 primaries approved were 16,806 and 17,117 according to DHS. FY2011 is an anomaly, only 10,665 primaries were approved. [This cannot be explained by the Kazarian memo only: EB1A+B (the ones impacted by the memo) decreased by 3,309. EB1C (were Kazarian has no relevance) decreased by 3,143.]

There are no numbers for EB2-NIW. But the essence of getting an EB2-NIW is very similar to an EB1A or B. For some, and EB1A may be easier than an NIW due to the subjective criteria established by the NYDOT decision for EB2-NIW.

Let's say FY2011 was an anomaly, for reasons unknown, and the average of EB1 I-140 is 17K. This is not far from the 20650 above. This would give an EB2NIW I-140 estimate of 3K - which is very similar to EB1A.

The whole EB-1 category seems to have a higher i-140 to i-485 ratio than EB2. Perhaps NIW also has a higher ratio - these would be advanced academics later in their careers and with more children.

In conclusion, I think Veni's numbers are right on target. EB2-NIW of course won't consume as many GCs because there are many Chinese applicants who are retrogressed.

[Spectator]

I have been reading your blog as a guest for the past 6 months. I truly admire the work Spec, Q, Veni and others do. For the first time, I feel like I have something to contributte to the conversation.

The discrepancy between (140-PERM), as you know, can come from EB1 or EB2NIW. Also, a PERM approved one year may not show up as an I-140 until the next year.

That said, I added all the numbers FY09-12. This gives a total of 176168 PERM and 248442 I-140. The difference is 72274. Averaged out over 3.5 years that gives 20650/yr.

For FY2009 and FY2010, the number of EB-1 primaries approved were 16,806 and 17,117 according to DHS. FY2011 is an anomaly, only 10,665 primaries were approved. [This cannot be explained by the Kazarian memo only: EB1A+B (the ones impacted by the memo) decreased by 3,309. EB1C (were Kazarian has no relevance) decreased by 3,143.]

There are no numbers for EB2-NIW. But the essence of getting an EB2-NIW is very similar to an EB1A or B. For some, and EB1A may be easier than an NIW due to the subjective criteria established by the NYDOT decision for EB2-NIW.

Let's say FY2011 was an anomaly, for reasons unknown, and the average of EB1 I-140 is 17K. This is not far from the 20650 above. This would give an EB2NIW I-140 estimate of 3K - which is very similar to EB1A.

The whole EB-1 category seems to have a higher i-140 to i-485 ratio than EB2. Perhaps NIW also has a higher ratio - these would be advanced academics later in their careers and with more children.

In conclusion, I think Veni's numbers are right on target. EB2-NIW of course won't consume as many GCs because there are many Chinese applicants who are retrogressed.justvisiting,

Welcome to the forum.

That's a very nice first post.

I would calculate that 17k EB1 I-140 would result in about 34k I-485 approvals after the relative % of EB1A, EB1B and EB1C , the denial rates for each sub Category and the Primary/Dependent ratio are taken into account.

[suninphx]

Wondering if HR3012(passing in house) resulted in higher porting in EB ROW

[kd2008]

A quick stat from trackitt:

PERMs approved between Jan 2012 to March 2012 ~400
PERMs approved between April 2012 to date ~600

We should see I-140 filings pickup in the next few months and this should be reflected in the USCIS dashboard.

[kd2008]

Wondering if HR3012(passing in house) resulted in higher porting in EB ROW

Not enough time has passed since HR 3012 was passed in the house of representatives. Typically, PERM preparation takes 3 to 4 months, PERM approval takes 60 to 90 days and then a few weeks for I-140 approval and porting.

[suninphx]

Not enough time has passed since HR 3012 was passed in the house of representatives. Typically, PERM preparation takes 3 to 4 months, PERM approval takes 60 to 90 days and then a few weeks for I-140 approval and porting.

Bill was introduced in Sep 2011 and passed in house Nov 2011. So its 6+ months EB3 ROW know that they will take the most hit. And one can do concurrent filing once PERM is approved. It will be interesting statistics once we have data.

[justvisiting]

I would calculate that 17k EB1 I-140 would result in about 34k I-485 approvals after the relative % of EB1A, EB1B and EB1C , the denial rates for each sub Category and the Primary/Dependent ratio are taken into account.

I should clarify that the 17K number is from the total EB-1 primary approved I-485 cases +consular processing visas (actual green cards). So you wouldn't have to adjust for denial rates. This resulted in 40K when adding dependents, which is the usual quota. Basically, EB-1 is maxed out.

[Spectator]

I should clarify that the 17K number is from the total EB-1 primary approved I-485 cases +consular processing visas (actual green cards). So you wouldn't have to adjust for denial rates. This resulted in 40K when adding dependents, which is the usual quota. Basically, EB-1 is maxed out.justvisiting,

Thanks for the correction. You did say approvals - I should have read your post more carefully!!

[TeddyKoochu]

I should clarify that the 17K number is from the total EB-1 primary approved I-485 cases +consular processing visas (actual green cards). So you wouldn't have to adjust for denial rates. This resulted in 40K when adding dependents, which is the usual quota. Basically, EB-1 is maxed out.

justvisiting you make a very valid point. The dependent factor for EB1 is significantly higher than any other category. The reason being the average age of the EB1 definitely for EB1C primary applicant is probably 5 - 10 years higher than the EB2 applicant and by that time it is pretty likely to have at least 1 non US born kid. So even by a factor of 2.5K; 40K can be easily achieved. Even within EB1 the EB1C category will have a higher dependent factor rate a lot of those people are actually closer to 40. Also to be noted is that based on Trackitt figures the usage of EB1-C the data is skewed by Indian EB1-C though is really high this year. I happen to know 5 EB1-C families who have used EB1C in the last year or are in process of doing so; the dependent factor would be well over 3 for them, even though this is a very small sample space a factor of 2.5 for EB1 seems to be fair, it should be much lower for EB2 though.

[tatikonda]

Hi All,

AILA Annual Conference June 13– 16, 2012.
Key Speaker is Alejandro Mayorkas, Director, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

I believe this conference is attended by many prominent Immigration Lawyers.
I wanted to know,

1) If we can expect any information from this conference to predict numbers.
2) If in this conference, lawyers bring up any pending immigration bills.

Please share your knowledge ..
Thank you

[redsox2009]

Looks like most of us are in denial state...........


I still could not belive how come and where our numbers went wrong.............

[suninphx]

Looks like most of us are in denial state...........


I still could not belive how come and where our numbers went wrong.............

I think our calcuation about EB2IC demand is fine. Its the consumption in other catagories which changed equation. (Spec has been warning for a while about higher consumption though).

[qesehmk]

I would've thought so but given the monkey business CO is engaged in .... all sorts of irrational things are possible. So not really confident eitherway now.
Q,

So realistically, eb2 row dates could move ahead before october, if eb4 or 5 can give them something.

[suninphx]

I would've thought so but given the monkey business CO is engaged in .... all sorts of irrational things are possible. So not really confident eitherway now.

And here is example why 'all sorts of irrational things' are possible :). Its been a while any one got NVC fee notice.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/1024202925/nvc-visa-fee-bill-notice/page/last_page

[Spectator]

And here is example why 'all sorts of irrational things' are possible :). Its been a while any one got NVC fee notice.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/1024202925/nvc-visa-fee-bill-notice/page/last_pagesuninphx,

I saw that too.

It seems to be silly season all round today.

An EB2-I user with a Aug 29, 2008 PD reports being approved today (nimmagaddavasu). I am a little suspicious about that one, especially as they don't even appear to have had an RFE.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1024228851/eb2-i485-status-approval-started-in-tsc/page/last_page

[just_curious]

And here is example why 'all sorts of irrational things' are possible :). Its been a while any one got NVC fee notice.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/1024202925/nvc-visa-fee-bill-notice/page/last_page

Pardon my ignorance here..

Is there any law/ETA, that you have to be called for immigration visa interview before so and so days once you get the NVC notice?

[Spectator]

Pardon my ignorance here..

Is there any law/ETA, that you have to be called for immigration visa interview before so and so days once you get the NVC notice?just_curious,

None that I am aware of.

[just_curious]

just_curious,

None that I am aware of.
thanks, Spec. I think it is going to be a carrot dangling in front..

[TeddyKoochu]

And here is example why 'all sorts of irrational things' are possible :). Its been a while any one got NVC fee notice.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/1024202925/nvc-visa-fee-bill-notice/page/last_page

Sun this is interesting news considering that just yesterday EB2 ROW retrogressed. Lets see if people receive NVC notices in large numbers before arriving at any conclusions. NVC notices have been a very accurate in the last season.

[Mavrick]

I'm completely lost now


And here is example why 'all sorts of irrational things' are possible :). Its been a while any one got NVC fee notice.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/1024202925/nvc-visa-fee-bill-notice/page/last_page

[openaccount]

suninphx,

I saw that too.

It seems to be silly season all round today.

An EB2-I user with a Aug 29, 2008 PD reports being approved today (nimmagaddavasu). I am a little suspicious about that one, especially as they don't even appear to have had an RFE.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1024228851/eb2-i485-status-approval-started-in-tsc/page/last_page

I know one case from my company, last month precisely May 2ndweek when EB2 dates were Aug2007, one of my colleagues got approval his PD is Jul2008. This is one case which i am aware of personally. This happened after internal retrogression in March and after announcement of no visas being issued after April.

[veni001]

...............
.................................................

Veni - I understand this. I am talking about the net EB1 140s you calculated and then tying that to actual EB1 approvals in 2009-10-11-12. I am sure they dont quite match up well and the variation is much less compared to what the 140 numbers would make you believe.

Q,
Assuming that EB1 is going to use its full quota (or even more) this year, EB1 usage is about ~150K between 2009-10-11-12.

For the same period i-140 delta (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) (includes EB1 & EB2-NIW) is ~86K!

[mesan123]

Spec/Sunniplx

The below approval from tackitt is 100% correct. that guy is my friend and colleague and i just confirmed with him. he told he got his & his wife's 485 approved today... :) yes he never got an RFE.



suninphx,

I saw that too.

It seems to be silly season all round today.

An EB2-I user with a Aug 29, 2008 PD reports being approved today (nimmagaddavasu). I am a little suspicious about that one, especially as they don't even appear to have had an RFE.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1024228851/eb2-i485-status-approval-started-in-tsc/page/last_page

[suninphx]

Spec/Sunniplx

The below approval from tackitt is 100% correct. that guy is my friend and colleague and i just confirmed with him. he told he got his & his wife's 485 approved today... :) yes he never got an RFE.

Thanks Mesan!

Thats very interesting news!

[green5]

I got NVC notice dated June 11th. I had already filed I485 (PD: Mar 2010). I have no clue about how NVC is sending out notices when the PD is not current since May 1st!

[qesehmk]

Mesan - I somehow thought you yourself were already greened. So was not really expecting to hear from you. Good! This example you gave just goes to show the discretion USCIS / DOS exercise in doing anything. So if you think about it .... all this date movement and the rationale behind seems like a good story they give to the immigrant community and then do whatever they please back doors.

Spec/Sunniplx

The below approval from tackitt is 100% correct. that guy is my friend and colleague and i just confirmed with him. he told he got his & his wife's 485 approved today... :) yes he never got an RFE.


Q,
Assuming that EB1 is going to use its full quota (or even more) this year, EB1 usage is about ~150K between 2009-10-11-12.

For the same period i-140 delta (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) (includes EB1 & EB2-NIW) is ~86K!
That's good. I think if we now tie those numbers to the approvals in every year and remaining EB1 backlog - we may achieve Nirvana on this front!! Seriously. No kidding.

[openaccount]

I got NVC notice dated June 11th. I had already filed I485 (PD: Mar 2010). I have no clue about how NVC is sending out notices when the PD is not current since May 1st!

Shouldn't CO know if DOS is sending NVC notices unless it was decided to send these notices before April.

[mesan123]

Hope your words were true Q :) ....me still in the Queue...waiting for my date to be current(Feb 2011). dont know how long the wait will be...with this july bulletion :( and all this chaos


Mesan - I somehow thought you yourself were already greened. So was not really expecting to hear from you. Good! This example you gave just goes to show the discretion USCIS / DOS exercise in doing anything. So if you think about it .... all this date movement and the rationale behind seems like a good story they give to the immigrant community and then do whatever they please back doors.



That's good. I think if we now tie those numbers to the approvals in every year and remaining EB1 backlog - we may achieve Nirvana on this front!! Seriously. No kidding.

[suninphx]

If someone gets GC while dates are not current is it within the law? Or one needs to get in touch with USCIS to inform them about the error(!)?

[qesehmk]

Hang in there with friends. It makes the difficult journey better. Teddy / Venni and myself ... received our GC during last 1 year. It certainly made my life easier to be able to share and vent frustration!!
Hope your words were true Q :) ....me still in the Queue...waiting for my date to be current(Feb 2011). dont know how long the wait will be...with this july bulletion :( and all this chaos

[openaccount]

If someone gets GC while dates are not current is it within the law? Or one needs to get in touch with USCIS to inform them about the error(!)?

It is within law if VISA number was allocated when dates are current and who knows about this USCIS/DOS who approved so we can expect what they would say.

[justvisiting]

Q,
Assuming that EB1 is going to use its full quota (or even more) this year, EB1 usage is about ~150K between 2009-10-11-12.

For the same period i-140 delta (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) (includes EB1 & EB2-NIW) is ~86K!

The problem is the FY2011 anomalous low number of approvals.

[mesan123]

Yeap you are right Q :) By the way what is GURU's take on recent approval and NVC reciepts...i am really not able to understand CO or USCIS stance :( ....i am personally happy my friend is approved :) .but i am not able to understand the Immigration Folks stance here. when they tell the dates are not current for the last 2 months and they approving cases here and that doesnt make any sense....


Hang in there with friends. It makes the difficult journey better. Teddy / Venni and myself ... received our GC during last 1 year. It certainly made my life easier to be able to share and vent frustration!!

[qesehmk]

Nov2010 - I replied to you in the thread dedicated to whereismygc.com at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?900-WhereismyGC.com-Updates&p=27436#post27436

Trying to keep this thread clean of whereismygc.com related stuff.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I think CO and his agency can and will do whatever they want to. There is no transparency so any case can be made by them by showing any numbers and erroneous data. I will share what my lawyer shared with me earlier.

My lawyer told me last month that one of his client who had his GC in EB2C category got approved. He had PD in early 2007. Surprisingly, his wife who is his dependent and on H4, got approved within 2 months of filing I-485 but her husband who is the primary applicant did not get approved. Actually, the wife got her GC in mail first and EAD arrived 3 days later. My lawyer told me that neither his office nor his client got any RFE for his or his wife's I-485. Still his wife (dependent) got approved and the primary applicant was waiting to get approved for total 7 months. Finally, after waiting for 5 more months after his wife's approval and after making multiple calls to the agency, my lawyer got frustrated and asked his client to contact the Senator. Before, he could call the Senator, the primary applicant finally received his GC last month in mail. And all this time while waiting for 7 months, he never got his EAD/AP. Again, EAD/AP arrived few days after he got his GC.

Isn't that crazy?

[kd2008]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_select_statis_oct2011_may_2012.pdf

Applications Received
YTD (Oct. 1, 2011 – May 30, 2012) 43,100
Oct. 1 –Dec. 31, 2011 (Q1) 13,300
Jan. 1 –Mar. 31, 2012 (Q2) 17,700
Apr. 1 –May 30, 2012(Q3 to date) 12,100

These are massive amounts of filings. Last three years, avg. number of filings per year were about 43,000. We have met those in just 8 months. Oh, Lordy!

Applications Certified
YTD(Oct. 1, 2011 –May 30, 2012)* 27,600
Oct. 1 –Dec. 31, 2011 (Q1) 9,500
Jan. 1 –Mar. 31, 2012 (Q2) 7,100
Apr. 1 –May 30, 2012(Q3 to date) 11,000

[veni001]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_select_statis_oct2011_may_2012.pdf

Applications Received
YTD (Oct. 1, 2011 – May 30, 2012) 43,100
Oct. 1 –Dec. 31, 2011 (Q1) 13,300
Jan. 1 –Mar. 31, 2012 (Q2) 17,700
Apr. 1 –May 30, 2012(Q3 to date) 12,100

These are massive amounts of filings. Last three years, avg. number of filings per year were about 43,000. We have met those in just 8 months. Oh, Lordy!

Applications Certified
YTD(Oct. 1, 2011 –May 30, 2012)* 27,600
Oct. 1 –Dec. 31, 2011 (Q1) 9,500
Jan. 1 –Mar. 31, 2012 (Q2) 7,100
Apr. 1 –May 30, 2012(Q3 to date) 11,000

Kd,
As usual very good information.

Massive PERM certifications in April and May!

FY2012(Q1+Q2) = 16,600
April-May (2012) = 11,000

ROW is about 40% of PERM approvals and 60-40 split means an additional ~6k EB2-ROW into the pipeline, in just two months.

[kd2008]

OK! So this July visa bulletin, proves optimists wrong!

Q, the dates won't move at all for EB2-IC. So your prediction does not hold.

I think we all will be better off if we start making super pessimistic predictions.

In fact, as EB2-IC will be unavailable for so long, the porters will accumulate to nearly 1500 to 1800 cases by the end of this fiscal year. So even if, the dates become available in Oct 12 (start of FY 2013), they may start somewhere like June 2004 and slowly progress to 2007 and stall. Finally when the spillover season starts, the dates will move to 2008 at most.

In addition, EB2-ROW cases will accumulate. They will eat all of the Q1 and Q2 quota in FY 2013 without even reaching individual country quota. So there will not be any spillover in first three quarters of FY 2013.


Kd,
As usual very good information.

Massive PERM certifications in April and May!

FY2012(Q1+Q2) = 16,600
April-May (2012) = 11,000

ROW is about 40% of PERM approvals and 60-40 split means an additional ~6k EB2-ROW into the pipeline, in just two months.

Thanks, Veni! Now, I have facts that back up my dire predictions. SOFAD is going to be non-existent next year and even if it is there, it may be less than half of what we have this year.

[murali83]

Thanks, Veni! Now, I have facts that back up my dire predictions. SOFAD is going to be non-existent next year and even if it is there, it may be less than half of what we have this year.

kd2008,

I think you are right. I guess I should start looking for a job in India and head back asap. I dont think Fy 2013 will even cross Dec 2007.

[kd2008]

kd2008,

I think you are right. I guess I should start looking for a job in India and head back asap. I dont think Fy 2013 will even cross Dec 2007.

Murali, It is your personal decision. I don't think GC should be the only criteria for working in the U.S. But if you are hanging on to the job you have in hopes of getting a GC, then it might be wise to revise your decision and follow career opportunities irrespective of GC.

[murali83]

Murali, It is your personal decision. I don't think GC should be the only criteria for working in the U.S. But if you are hanging on to the job you have in hopes of getting a GC, then it might be wise to revise your decision and follow career opportunities irrespective of GC.

KD,

Thanks dude. Thats exactly what my plan. My PD is June 2008. So a very dicey PD to take any decision and I am just way too young to stick to a particular job without career advancement in hopes of getting a GC as you said. I guess I am going to apply for better opportunities both in the US and India and see what comes first.

So I would like to just repeat this word of wisdom from the gurus in this forum and this for all newbies with PD's in 09-11 range. "DONT TIE YOUR CAREER DECISIONS TO YOUR GC"

[Stemcell]

Guys,
I have been off from this forum for a while, due to the mess that was created and the frustration of being so close and yet so far (PD of Oct 26,2007).
Although this is a EB2 prediction thread i want to ask a question which is related to me, and i apologize for deviating from the broad discussion and focusing microscopically.

The demand data shows 3400 for India and 400 for China EB2 pending as of Jan 2008.Come October 2013 if DOS plans to keep IC on the same page(as they have in the past), and given 2800 visas per year for each country,the dates should move to at least Dec 2007 by Jan 2013 right ?

[suninphx]

Thanks, Veni! Now, I have facts that back up my dire predictions. SOFAD is going to be non-existent next year and even if it is there, it may be less than half of what we have this year.

And why do you think next year's movement will be logical( i.e. based on numbers?) :)

[qesehmk]

sun - I have the same thought. I guess the small ray of hope is that next year they don't have this rush to intake new 485s and so the approvals will be more or less FIFO.
And why do you think next year's movement will be logical( i.e. based on numbers?) :)

[kd2008]

And why do you think next year's movement will be logical( i.e. based on numbers?) :)

For their illogical nonsensical movements they still more or less adhere to the annual limit.
Like Q said, when they have a stack of pre-adjudicated I-485s they have been fair and processed them in FIFO - more or less. Post-july-2007 fiasco being exhibit A in years 2009,2010,2011 (after they had sorted out FBI name check backlogs).

[suninphx]

sun - I have the same thought. I guess the small ray of hope is that next year they don't have this rush to intake new 485s and so the approvals will be more or less FIFO.

Q- my illogical point is - if there not lot of hue and cry about making EB2ROW retro this year then same model will very well play out next year. (And we have not seen them applying any logic recently).