EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[drysnow]

If the concept of number allotted at the time of RFE is true, then is it a Just coincidence that two cases of pre 08/15/2007 are approved on 1st day of May?

[Spectator]

Progress on Applications Added to Trackitt Since October 2011

Date Added to Trackitt

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 -- Mar 15 -- Mar 31 -- Apr 15 -- Apr 30 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 ----- 145 ----- 152 ----- 155 ----- 156 (+ 1 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 ----- 487 ----- 518 ----- 527 ----- 529 (+ 2 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 ----- 630 ----- 711 ----- 728 ----- 739 (+ 11 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 ----- 732 ----- 863 ----- 907 ----- 931 (+ 24 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 ----- 514 ----- 677 ----- 753 ----- 786 (+ 33 cases)
March VB ---- PD Jan 01 2010 to Apr 30 2010 ------------------------------------------------------- 72 ----- 133 ----- 172 ----- 191 (+ 19 cases)


Since internal retrogression was announced by DOS, there has been a very noticable reduction in EB2-I cases being added to Trackitt.

Hopefully, this is a temporary phenomenon, otherwise the figures for January-March/April VB will start to lose their value and become much more difficult to convert to real world numbers.


Breakdown Of Applications By USCIS Received Date

Month Received By USCIS

USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March ---- April ---- Total
Pre FY2012 PD ------------- 11 -------- 11 -------- 8 -------- 7 --------- 5 -------- 6 -------- 2 ------- 50
October VB --------------- 124 -------- 16 -------- 3 -------- 6 --------- 5 -------- 2 -------- 0 ------ 156
November VB -------------------------- 452 ------- 57 -------- 8 --------- 5 -------- 5 -------- 2 ------ 529
December VB ------------------------------------- 608 ------- 84 -------- 27 ------- 14 -------- 6 ------ 739
January VB ------------------------------------------------- 760 ------- 133 ------- 17 ------- 21 ------ 931
February VB ------------------------------------------------------------ 664 ------ 104 ------- 18 ------ 786
March / April VB ------------------------------------------------------------------ 175 ------- 16 ------ 191

Total -------------------- 135 ------- 479 ------ 676 ------ 865 ------- 839 ------ 323 ------- 65 ---- 3,382


USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March ---- April
Pre FY2012 PD --------- 22.00% ---- 22.00% --- 16.00% --- 14.00% ---- 10.00% --- 12.00% ---- 4.00%
October VB ------------ 79.49% ---- 10.26% ---- 1.92% ---- 3.85% ----- 3.21% ---- 1.28% ---- 0.00%
November VB ----------------------- 85.44% --- 10.78% ---- 1.51% ----- 0.95% ---- 0.95% ---- 0.38%
December VB ---------------------------------- 82.27% --- 11.37% ----- 3.65% ---- 1.89% ---- 0.81%
January VB ---------------------------------------------- 81.63% ---- 14.29% ---- 1.83% ---- 2.26%
February VB --------------------------------------------------------- 84.48% --- 13.23% ---- 2.29%
March / April VB --------------------------------------------------------------- 91.62% ---- 8.38%


More data can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012).

[rasknorr]

Will there be any chance of moving a little bit further or waste of time even thinking about it...

[Spectator]

Saw this EB2I approval on trackitt. I thought they said no more visas for EB2IC for this FY?

User: foobar123
Category: EB2 India
PD: 07/15/2007
Filing: Concurrent in Aug-2007
Last Finger Printing: First week of Feb-2012
RFE for AOS for Name discrepancy received on 02/09/2012
RFE response Submitted: 04/20/2012
RFE response received by USCIS: 04/25/2012
AOS Status changed to "Card Production" on 04/30/2012
AOS Status changed to "Decision" on 05/01/2012Looking at the user's posts, there is a back story to this.

He was told he was approved on February 7, 2012, so it appears the visa was requested then.

Subsequently, an RFE was issued on February 9 regarding a name discrepancy he raised during the fingerprint appointment.

The RFE response was received by USCIS on April 25 and the approval was made on April 30.

It appears to be quite an unusual case.

[gc2008]

Here is another EB2I approval today from Trackitt.

http://www.trackitt.com/member/EB2IAug112007

[openaccount]

Found this info related to EB5


http://eb5greencard.blogspot.com/2012/05/eb-5-program-statistics-released.html

Tuesday, May 1, 2012
EB-5 Program statistics released

The EB-5 immigrant investor visa program is still woefully underutilized, if newly released statistics are any guide. The Office of Performance and Quality of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services shows that 1,563 I-526 petitions (for the conditional immigrant visa) were approved in federal fiscal year 2011, up from 1,369 in FY 2010.
But based upon preliminary data from the first two quarters of FY 2012, 2,101 I-526 petitions were approved. That's better, but still nothing for USCIS to crow about considering Congress makes available 10,000 visas each federal fiscal year.
On the backside of the process, USCIS approved 1,067 I-829 petitions to remove conditions on residence, and there were 522 approvals during the first two quarters of FY 2012.
The approval percentage for I-526 petitions in FY 2011 was 81 percent, and for the first two quarters of FY 2012, it was 85 percent.

From AILA:USCIS EB-5 statistics provided for a 5/1/12 stakeholder engagement, including information on service-wide receipts, approvals, and denials of I-526s and I-829s; the number of approved EB5 Regional Centers by fiscal year; I-924 receipts, approvals, and denials; and more. AILA Doc. No. 12050143.

[Spectator]

Found this info related to EB5


http://eb5greencard.blogspot.com/2012/05/eb-5-program-statistics-released.html

Tuesday, May 1, 2012
EB-5 Program statistics released

The EB-5 immigrant investor visa program is still woefully underutilized, if newly released statistics are any guide. The Office of Performance and Quality of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services shows that 1,563 I-526 petitions (for the conditional immigrant visa) were approved in federal fiscal year 2011, up from 1,369 in FY 2010.
But based upon preliminary data from the first two quarters of FY 2012, 2,101 I-526 petitions were approved. That's better, but still nothing for USCIS to crow about considering Congress makes available 10,000 visas each federal fiscal year.
On the backside of the process, USCIS approved 1,067 I-829 petitions to remove conditions on residence, and there were 522 approvals during the first two quarters of FY 2012.
The approval percentage for I-526 petitions in FY 2011 was 81 percent, and for the first two quarters of FY 2012, it was 85 percent.

From AILA:USCIS EB-5 statistics provided for a 5/1/12 stakeholder engagement, including information on service-wide receipts, approvals, and denials of I-526s and I-829s; the number of approved EB5 Regional Centers by fiscal year; I-924 receipts, approvals, and denials; and more. AILA Doc. No. 12050143.Thanks.

I'm looking forward to reading the full minutes from that meeting.

To put things in to context, although only 1.6k I-526 were approved in FY2011, the number of EB5 visas used in FY2011 was 3.3k.

The average monthly I-526 approvals in FY2011 was 131. To date, in FY2012, the average is 350 per month, an increase of 267%.

The backlog of I-526, which was only about 1.2k at the beginning of FY2011 has now increased to 3k.

[pdmay2008]

Found this info related to EB5


http://eb5greencard.blogspot.com/2012/05/eb-5-program-statistics-released.html

Tuesday, May 1, 2012
EB-5 Program statistics released

The EB-5 immigrant investor visa program is still woefully underutilized, if newly released statistics are any guide. The Office of Performance and Quality of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services shows that 1,563 I-526 petitions (for the conditional immigrant visa) were approved in federal fiscal year 2011, up from 1,369 in FY 2010.
But based upon preliminary data from the first two quarters of FY 2012, 2,101 I-526 petitions were approved. That's better, but still nothing for USCIS to crow about considering Congress makes available 10,000 visas each federal fiscal year.
On the backside of the process, USCIS approved 1,067 I-829 petitions to remove conditions on residence, and there were 522 approvals during the first two quarters of FY 2012.
The approval percentage for I-526 petitions in FY 2011 was 81 percent, and for the first two quarters of FY 2012, it was 85 percent.

From AILA:USCIS EB-5 statistics provided for a 5/1/12 stakeholder engagement, including information on service-wide receipts, approvals, and denials of I-526s and I-829s; the number of approved EB5 Regional Centers by fiscal year; I-924 receipts, approvals, and denials; and more. AILA Doc. No. 12050143.

First two quarters it is 2101. Looks like there will be less spill over from EB5 this year. Regardless CO already applied spill over to EB2IC based on his estimates. He might play carefully next year.

[Spectator]

The USCIS Statistics can be found here (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Upcoming%20National%20Engagements/Upcoming%20National%20Engagement%20Pages/2012%20Events/May%202012/EB-5Stats.pdf).

For those that don't know about the turmoil that EB5 is going through regarding USCIS moving the goalposts (specifically Tenant Occupancy), this post (http://blog.lucidtext.com/) and this post (http://www.lexisnexis.com/community/immigration-law/blogs/inside/archive/2012/04/24/follow-the-jobs-is-uscis-fumbling-the-eb-5-visa-ball.aspx) should give you an idea of the current climate.

[dec2007]

Q,

I have just read your predictions for 2012 and 2013 in the first page.

You are saying Q1 2008 should be cleared in 2012. Do you mean by Oct 2012, all PDs before Q1 2008 will get green cards? if so, CO should start moving dates starting July or August of this year, right?

My PD is Dec 31,07. Have to make critical career decision. Please let me know the chances of me receiving GC before October/November 2012.

thank you.

[qesehmk]

Dec 2007, for your PD you should get yours before Mar 2013.

Otherwise I would've said 100% by Sep 2012 however what DOS has done is provided visas to 2008 people ahead of people such as yourself. Almost 8K visas have been given to 2008 folks. If they were given to all 2007 people, all of 2007 would've been cleared as per my prediction. I am not so confident now that all of 2007 will indeed be clearred. Sorry ..for the rather grim news.


Q,

I have just read your predictions for 2012 and 2013 in the first page.

You are saying Q1 2008 should be cleared in 2012. Do you mean by Oct 2012, all PDs before Q1 2008 will get green cards? if so, CO should start moving dates starting July or August of this year, right?

My PD is Dec 31,07. Have to make critical career decision. Please let me know the chances of me receiving GC before October/November 2012.

thank you.

[dec2007]

Dec 2007, for your PD you should get yours before Mar 2013.

Otherwise I would've said 100% by Sep 2012 however what DOS has done is provided visas to 2008 people ahead of people such as yourself. Almost 8K visas have been given to 2008 folks. If they were given to all 2007 people, all of 2007 would've been cleared as per my prediction. I am not so confident now that all of 2007 will indeed be clearred. Sorry ..for the rather grim news.

thank you Q. yaa..my amended 140 petition has delayed things..it got approved recently..by then dates have retrogressed.

[murali83]

Dec 2007, for your PD you should get yours before Mar 2013.

Otherwise I would've said 100% by Sep 2012 however what DOS has done is provided visas to 2008 people ahead of people such as yourself. Almost 8K visas have been given to 2008 folks. If they were given to all 2007 people, all of 2007 would've been cleared as per my prediction. I am not so confident now that all of 2007 will indeed be clearred. Sorry ..for the rather grim news.

Hi Q,

Sorry to bug you on this, but could you explain the 8k figure for 2008 pd's.

Just 50% of the filers with pd's from jan 1 2008 to mar 15 2008, and 10-11% of the filers for the rest of 2008 have been approved. So even with a maximalist number of 2300 density per month, i see at max, 5k visas being given to 2008 pd's.

Cheers

Murali

[qesehmk]

murali

the last i checked trackitt - it showed 30% of 2008 folks approved. 30% of 24K annual demand is approx 8K.
Hi Q,

Sorry to bug you on this, but could you explain the 8k figure for 2008 pd's.

Just 50% of the filers with pd's from jan 1 2008 to mar 15 2008, and 10-11% of the filers for the rest of 2008 have been approved. So even with a maximalist number of 2300 density per month, i see at max, 5k visas being given to 2008 pd's.

Cheers

Murali

[imdeng]

Annual report for FY2011 is out - but the links are not live yet. I imagine they will become live as they upload the PDFs.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5641.html

[imdeng]

The only link live is the Non-Immigrant Visa issue numbers (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5641.html) - and the only thing of interest for us there is the H visa numbers. So, here is a compilation of H visa issuance for all countries with more than 5K visas in last 3 years (Mexico numbers are funky since they include H2 visas for agricultural workers):

Country---------FY09--------FY10--------FY11
India-----------90,702------97,907------120,007
China-----------12,826------14,671------14,443
S. Korea--------5,495-------5,961-------5,835
Philippines-----9,512-------8,321-------5,685
UK--------------4,997-------6,106-------6,645
Mexico----------89,692------90,431------93,310
Total-----------278,168-----288,182-----312,082

Any inferences:
1. H-visa issuance is increasing, so potential GC queue is increasing as well. Although much of the change comes from India - so EB2I is in for a bad time as the temporary halt in H-India numbers due to recession reverses itself and all these additional H-India holders join the EB2I queue in a couple years
2. H-visa for countries other than India seems steady despite the economy recovering. So, perhaps EB2ROW is not going to go up much in coming years and we will continue to see some horizontal spillover from them to EB2IC
3. H-visa demand from China is quite low - this points to lower GC number demand from EB2C - however, H-visa holders accounts for lower portion of EB2C than it does for EB2I - so this is not quite a reliable indicator.
4. S. Korea is holding steady, UK is growing gradually and Philippines is down significantly - overall I would say that this is positive for spillover from EB2ROW but negative for wait times for new EB2I folks.

PS> Ahh... the beauty of fixed-width-font-table A.K.A Spec's style :-)


Annual report for FY2011 is out - but the links are not live yet. I imagine they will become live as they upload the PDFs.
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5641.html

[natvyas]

I-485 Applied on 11th Jan 2011
PD date: 24th Mar 08
Service Center: Nebraska

1) I think I can open an SR on 11th May, is my assumption correct?

2) Are there any advantages to opening a SR ?

Regards
Nat

[Spectator]

Annual report for FY2011 is out - but the links are not live yet. I imagine they will become live as they upload the PDFs.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5641.htmlimdeng,

I noticed it was up as soon as it was updated as well.

DOS seem very reluctant to actually publish the figures this year.



The only link live is the Non-Immigrant Visa issue numbers (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5641.html) - and the only thing of interest for us there is the H visa numbers. So, here is a compilation of H visa issuance for all countries with more than 5K visas in last 3 years (Mexico numbers are funky since they include H2 visas for agricultural workers):

Country---------FY09--------FY10--------FY11
India-----------90,702------97,907------120,007
China-----------12,826------14,671------14,443
S. Korea--------5,495-------5,961-------5,835
Philippines-----9,512-------8,321-------5,685
UK--------------4,997-------6,106-------6,645
Mexico----------89,692------90,431------93,310
Total-----------278,168-----288,182-----312,082

Any inferences:
1. H-visa issuance is increasing, so potential GC queue is increasing as well. Although much of the change comes from India - so EB2I is in for a bad time as the temporary halt in H-India numbers due to recession reverses itself and all these additional H-India holders join the EB2I queue in a couple years
2. H-visa for countries other than India seems steady despite the economy recovering. So, perhaps EB2ROW is not going to go up much in coming years and we will continue to see some horizontal spillover from them to EB2IC
3. H-visa demand from China is quite low - this points to lower GC number demand from EB2C - however, H-visa holders accounts for lower portion of EB2C than it does for EB2I - so this is not quite a reliable indicator.
4. S. Korea is holding steady, UK is growing gradually and Philippines is down significantly - overall I would say that this is positive for spillover from EB2ROW but negative for wait times for new EB2I folks.

PS> Ahh... the beauty of fixed-width-font-table A.K.A Spec's style :-)imdeng,

That is a very nice summary indeed. I can't fault your logic. Good spot about the H2 visas.

In addition to H issuances, India also uses about 40% of all L issuances as well, which is another significant source of demand for the immigrant queue. It is a bit lower this year, but fluctuates anyway. Possibly it reflects the greater scrutiny the category appears to be receiving. Overall L visas issuance increased very slightly last year.

Perhaps you want to present the data in the same format as you have for H visa issuances.

[qesehmk]

It sure doesnt hurt. But I am not sure I would've done that when the dates have retrogressed.


I-485 Applied on 11th Jan 2011
PD date: 24th Mar 08
Service Center: Nebraska

1) I think I can open an SR on 11th May, is my assumption correct?

2) Are there any advantages to opening a SR ?

Regards
Nat

[abcx13]

imdeng,

I noticed it was up as soon as it was updated as well.

DOS seem very reluctant to actually publish the figures this year.


imdeng,

That is a very nice summary indeed. I can't fault your logic. Good spot about the H2 visas.

In addition to H issuances, India also uses about 40% of all L issuances as well, which is another significant source of demand for the immigrant queue. It is a bit lower this year, but fluctuates anyway. Possibly it reflects the greater scrutiny the category appears to be receiving. Overall L visas issuance increased very slightly last year.

Perhaps you want to present the data in the same format as you have for H visa issuances.

It is crazy that the Indian H1 numbers are so high given the record rate at which RFEs, 221(g)s and denials have been issued. One wonders if the Indian bodyshops and IT companies are just flooding the system to make up. Though I guess as the EB3 backlog gets worse (I guess every year Indians apply in excess of the quota) H1B renewals will keep getting higher, right, because there are now more people getting H1B renewals while waiting for their PD to become current? Although I don't think that explains the jump...

[redsox2009]

One thing keeps me puzzling is that, State Dept couldn't run the estimates for an quarter and how can they promise that they can achieve target within a year. That failed on short term basis and their long term plan doesn't have clean exit for them.

[natvyas]

My PD is 24th march 08

I'm expecting to get my GC by December 2012. Am I being too aggressive in my expectation?

Thanks
Nat

[imdeng]

I think that's reasonable. 2008 Q1 should be cleared in FY13Q1 but only in case that they continue to do quarterly spillover.

My PD is 24th march 08

I'm expecting to get my GC by December 2012. Am I being too aggressive in my expectation?

Thanks
Nat

[LUVSPIDER]

I have been a silent everyday watcher of this thread and it's been great. Thank you to all the Gurus for their time & willingness to share their knowledge.

I have one query on Travel Document for child & appreciate your response. Please remove this after I get a response as it is not relevant to calculations.

My PD ( EB2-I,26-JAN-2010) became current in MARCH-2012 bulletin. I filed our I-485 (RD 13-MAR) for me, my wife & kid(4 years).We didn't apply EAD for my son, we just applied for I-131-travel document. We filed with TSC.

Me & my wife received our combo EAD cards with 1 year validity on 27-APR. But we didn't receive my son's I-131-Travel document approval yet. The online status shows that the case is not found.

My query is

1) Will all the family cases be approved in one go or will they process independently.

2) Did anyone gone thru this situation before?

3) What will be my next options ? Did anybody called the customer service 1-800-375-5283 before & do we need to wait for 90 days before we call them?

Thanking you in advance for your time & responses.

Cheers

[pdfeb09]

I have been a silent everyday watcher of this thread and it's been great. Thank you to all the Gurus for their time & willingness to share their knowledge.

I have one query on Travel Document for child & appreciate your response. Please remove this after I get a response as it is not relevant to calculations.

My PD ( EB2-I,26-JAN-2010) became current in MARCH-2012 bulletin. I filed our I-485 (RD 13-MAR) for me, my wife & kid(4 years).We didn't apply EAD for my son, we just applied for I-131-travel document. We filed with TSC.

Me & my wife received our combo EAD cards with 1 year validity on 27-APR. But we didn't receive my son's I-131-Travel document approval yet. The online status shows that the case is not found.

My query is

1) Will all the family cases be approved in one go or will they process independently.

2) Did anyone gone thru this situation before?

3) What will be my next options ? Did anybody called the customer service 1-800-375-5283 before & do we need to wait for 90 days before we call them?

Thanking you in advance for your time & responses.

Cheers

I would call the customer service right away. L1 will try to assess your situation and will most probably transfer you to L2. L2 has access to the data that L1 doesn't and will tell you what's going on with your kid's application. Good luck !

[ThisSummer]

I-485 Applied on 11th Jan 2011
PD date: 24th Mar 08
Service Center: Nebraska

1) I think I can open an SR on 11th May, is my assumption correct?

2) Are there any advantages to opening a SR ?

Regards
Nat

Nat,

You may try calling customer service and find out when you will be eligible to do so. In our case L2 officer said we can not do so until 120 business days have passed.

When I asked her whether or not I can open SR when my date is not current, she said it is up to the CSR to decide at that point of time.

Hope this helps!

[mbasense]

I think that's reasonable. 2008 Q1 should be cleared in FY13Q1 but only in case that they continue to do quarterly spillover.

GC: Estimated Q2FY2014

imdeng : that estimate has to be a pessimistic one, right? even with all the analysis and number crunching, you think late 2009 PDs will have to wait till 2014? i was estimating some date a little earlier than that(sometime in FY 2013)

[murali83]

murali

the last i checked trackitt - it showed 30% of 2008 folks approved. 30% of 24K annual demand is approx 8K.

Hi Q

I shall double check and get back to you.

Thanks

Murali

[murali83]

GC: Estimated Q2FY2014

imdeng : that estimate has to be a pessimistic one, right? even with all the analysis and number crunching, you think late 2009 PDs will have to wait till 2014? i was estimating some date a little earlier than that(sometime in FY 2013)

Hi Mbasense,

I am sure imdeng will weigh in his perspective. But if you look through the last 3-4 pages of discussion, you will see that with all calculations and trackiit ratios, fy 2013 will have a hard time crossing pd's with 2008. It may get to early 2009 only if one of the following 2 or both happen

1. They still have some visas left to give to eb2i-c this fy 2012, at least a healthy number like 4-5k.

2. There is huge demand destruction in the later part of 2008, something that we have not been able to pass a judgement on so far.

Cheers

Murali

[mbasense]

So, that's a little bit of optimism for your Monday morning. Now let's sit back and enjoy. I can tell you though that life on the EAD is just as good, and our other friends who are waiting for the same opportunity most likely would not have to wait long.


Hi Mbasense,
I am sure imdeng will weigh in his perspective. But if you look through the last 3-4 pages of discussion, you will see that with all calculations and trackiit ratios, fy 2013 will have a hard time crossing pd's with 2008. It may get to early 2009 only if one of the following 2 or both happen


sportsfan33: thanks a lot for sharing. that was an aal is well post from you..even if it's not true, it will make our days a little easier :)

murali: thanks for your input. demand destruction is one factor, and my understanding seems to align with what sportsfan33 shared(it also personally suits me :)!!), i don't have the number crunching expertise like the gurus here, but just using trends, it seems like a lot of 2008 PDs have been cleared, and the number of 2009 PDs are way lower in number than 2008.

[vizcard]

I had a meeting with the company lawyer on Friday. Again, after thinking whether I should post its contents or not, I decided to post them anyway. Part of the reason is that our company will take some policy actions based upon his recommendations, and hence I think his information is relevant. There is absolutely no number crunching here, and some may interpret this as wild conjecture. So do not take this info as it is, and stick to what the Gurus predict here as usual.

- Present situation: All of the 2008 PDs in my company have been greened (except me because I sent in my application too late). No 2009 PD has received a GC in my company, the earliest application being received on 1st February itself. He said that's the general trend, and he thinks a "substantial portion" of 2008 PDs have received green cards. I asked him if that number was 30% (as per Q), and he said, it was "more than that".

- Future prediction: He was very confident I would receive my GC by the end of this year (or the beginning of the next at the earliest). He said that he has advised all of the 2009 PDs to expect their GCs before their EADs expire.

- Our company policy: He said that he has advised our company *NOT TO* renew anyone's H1B unless the circumstances were exceptional as he is very confident that within 1 year from now, everyone holding their EADs will have their GCs.

That's all I have from him. I tried to ask him a lot about the numbers and the recent moves by CO, but as usual, he declined to comment. One thing he said that the EB1 usage is not out of the ordinary, and the EB2 numbers will be managed in a way that minimizes the waiting period of the EAD beneficiaries, and that the *DOS has learned a great deal from the 2007 experiment and things will be much better engineered this time*.

My take: As before, I continue to believe that the USCIS would want to minimize renewing EAD/AP for free. As for my specific case, they approved my EAD on April 28th - hardly 4 weeks from the day it was received. Had they waited until May 1st, they could have given me a 2 year EAD (since my date would not be current). But surprisingly, they approved it right away, and I still don't have my FP notice. So unless they give me a green card before the April of next year, they will be forced to renew my application and send me a replacement card, which represents additional work for them.

I also did a lot of queries around my receipt number on the USCIS tracker, and I literally found about a hundred I765 cases that were approved on the same day. So the approval comes in batches. In fact, the "previous batch" was approved on April 25th. All these applications could easily be approved in May with a 2 year validity.

From my lawyer's words, it seems that the DOS/USCIS are not as chaotic as we think. That's the impression he has given to me. Who knows what they will do? Perhaps they will give out 20K visas at the beginning of the FY and make the category unavailable the rest of the year. They might not show any qualms about imposing a cut off date on ROW.

So, that's a little bit of optimism for your Monday morning. Now let's sit back and enjoy. I can tell you though that life on the EAD is just as good, and our other friends who are waiting for the same opportunity most likely would not have to wait long.

good info. What law firm does your company use ?

[murali83]

sportsfan33: thanks a lot for sharing. that was an aal is well post from you..even if it's not true, it will make our days a little easier :)

murali: thanks for your input. demand destruction is one factor, and my understanding seems to align with what sportsfan33 shared(it also personally suits me :)!!), i don't have the number crunching expertise like the gurus here, but just using trends, it seems like a lot of 2008 PDs have been cleared, and the number of 2009 PDs are way lower in number than 2008.

Mbasense,

I hope it all turns out like what sportsfan has described, but it would just make me sleep much better if the numbers support what the lawyer referenced says. Latest trackiit does not even tally with the 30% 2008 approval number.

My gut feeling is that Q had the 30% number for until maybe mid way of 2008, since 30% of cases from jan to june 2008 have been cleared though the approvals until march 15th are more like 45-50% and from then on to june like 12%.

For whatever it is worth, here is the latest i have from trackiit.

Eb2 india+china, jan 1 2008 to march 14 2008,

235 of 530 cases on trackiit approved.

march 15 to dec 31 2008

111 of the 1104 cases on trackiit approved.

But i have some good news.

Jan 2008 (india) eb2 filings: 219
Feb: 201
Mar: 165
Apr: 122
May: 128
June: 114
July: 91
Aug: 125
Sep: 93
Oct: 104
Nov: 102
Dec: 124

From jan to dec 2008 we have 1588 cases.
From jan to dec 2007 we have 1898 cases.

And in 2008 the most dense months seem to be in the 1st quarter, 45-50% of which has been cleared. So these numbers give me some hope of crossing 2008 in fy 2013.

Cheers

[Mavrick]

Sportsfan33,

I'm really happy to read your post(atleast it makes me feel better).

Here is my question - Do you really believe EB2-I with 2010 PD dates and who have EAD's right now might get GC's in next 1 year? Is it even possible?

[imdeng]

Lets see - we will end FY2012 at where we are right now or at most somewhere into first couple months of 2008. FY2013 will clear the rest of 2008 and then FY2014 will finally be able to deal with 2009 PDs. This is my logic for my expect GC time of Q2FY2014. I would have said Q42014 but 2009 is pretty sparse - so I guess Q2FY2014 is as good a guess as any at this point.


GC: Estimated Q2FY2014

imdeng : that estimate has to be a pessimistic one, right? even with all the analysis and number crunching, you think late 2009 PDs will have to wait till 2014? i was estimating some date a little earlier than that(sometime in FY 2013)

[imdeng]

Sports - the inability to see 485 online is only for TSC. NSC folks can see all their cases online without any difficulty. This has been so for several months now. Also - per-adjudication is surely happening since folks are getting RFEs (e.g. Kanmani got hers a week or so ago) - so the processing is happening on USCIS' side.



It is also noteworthy that none of the I485 cases can be tracked on the USCIS tracker, although we could track the I765 and I131 cases. The USCIS might be holding on to those cases to decide how to proceed.

The question on *pre-adjudication* will be answered soon, starting the demand data for this month. Subsequent months, we will know if that's what they are doing. If the DO this, then the dates will move slowly and we will surely have a mini 2007. Although this would make the FIFO camp happy.

[Kanmani]

Sportsfan, did you ask your attorney's opinion on pending/overall 'demand' ?

[Kanmani]

OK, I didn't know this. I thought none of us could see our cases online. Any idea how do the *real processing times* compare across TSC versus NSC?

As for me, there is a dead silence on my 485 case. I have 3 other friends in my company who submitted their cases in March, and none of us have received even a finger printing notice. That's what made me think that they have even stopped pre-adjudicating.

Sportsfan, as per trackitt trend TSC feb filers are started receiving RFEs . So the batch which is going through pre-adj should be with feb1-15 RD I guess.

[vishnu]

Thanks Sportsfan33 for sharing your attorney's views... the next pending inventory update and perhaps even demand data will provide great color

[imdeng]

For trackitt data parsing, I would refer all to the gold standard - Spec's analysis - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012

Considering that not everyone updates their trackitt status once they receive their GC (and are no longer stressed/obsessed about it), lets assume a 75% reporting rate, that gives us the following approval ratios:

Oct VB: 82.91%
Nov VB: 76.37%
Dec VB: 61.80%
Jan VB: 14.55%

Conclusions:
1. 2007 mostly finished
2. 2008 up to March is more than half done
3. 2008 after March is less than a fifth done

Please note that 75% for reporting rate might still be quite conservative since people do take their own sweet time in updating trackitt.


I do agree that the Trackitt data show around 30% overall approval for EB2, and the number is definitely lower for March to December 2008. What we do not have is an *estimate*. For example, the Jan-March 2008 crowd got greened so fast that several people, who otherwise *might* have included their details did not do this. So we might be missing some otherwise significant number of people who would be seen on trackitt thus making the *dense months even denser*. Same is true for 2008 folks otherwise. It's true that trackitt shows around 10% approval, but again, from my company example, people received their GCs in an average time of 2.5 months, and a substantial number of "greened" people never showed up on trackitt.

My point being very fast processing might have introduced a bias (on the negative side) to gauge the approval percentage accurately.

In any case, as you point out, I believe > 50% approval has happened at the very least from July 2007 to March 2008 combined, which is still a good news.

[imdeng]

It might just be my frustration with NSC speaking, but TSC has been moving way faster than NSC for both finger printing and EAD issue and now RFE for pre-adj.

OK, I didn't know this. I thought none of us could see our cases online. Any idea how do the *real processing times* compare across TSC versus NSC?

As for me, there is a dead silence on my 485 case. I have 3 other friends in my company who submitted their cases in March, and none of us have received even a finger printing notice. That's what made me think that they have even stopped pre-adjudicating.

[imdeng]

Thoughts on EB2I density based on 485 submission data (from: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012). This data will change in future but I am using the data as it stands today. I am going to scale the monthly EB2I density using the period July 15, 2007 to Oct 31, 2007 as reference point (=100).


----------------------------------------# of Submission--Submission/Month--% of Reference
Nov VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007: 529--------------151.14/m-----------100%
Dec VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008: 740--------------164.44/m-----------109%
Jan VB - PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008: 935--------------98.42/m------------65%
Feb VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009: 803--------------66.92/m------------44%


So, essentially, EB2I density in late 2007, early 2008 is a little higher than the reference period of Jul-15 to Oct-31 2007. However, the density reduces sharply to 65% of reference in late 2008 and only 44% of reference in 2009.

Please keep in mind that the figures are an UNDER-estimate for later VBs since folks there have not finished updating trackitt. Also, reference period might have been under-counted since a few there would have snuck in during 07/07.

[bvsamrat]

As commented earlier, I do not have calculations or Tarrot

But based past trend and gut feeling(I will not say common sense to offend others)

I tend to agree with sportfan

Before 2013 April most of the 2009 (may be a few 2010 filers) may get GCs(if found approvable and all RFE's cleared) and PD may progress atleast 3-6 months at that time(up to 2010 end by April 2013)

Reaons may be many - low 2009 cases/past history/too many audits/RFEs- economic situation/elections/and so on.





Thoughts on EB2I density based on 485 submission data (from: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012). This data will change in future but I am using the data as it stands today. I am going to scale the monthly EB2I density using the period July 15, 2007 to Oct 31, 2007 as reference point (=100).


----------------------------------------# of Submission--Submission/Month--% of Reference
Nov VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007: 529--------------151.14/m-----------100%
Dec VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008: 740--------------164.44/m-----------109%
Jan VB - PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008: 935--------------98.42/m------------65%
Feb VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009: 803--------------66.92/m------------44%


So, essentially, EB2I density in late 2007, early 2008 is a little higher than the reference period of Jul-15 to Oct-31 2007. However, the density reduces sharply to 65% of reference in late 2008 and only 44% of reference in 2009.

Please keep in mind that the figures are an UNDER-estimate for later VBs since folks there have not finished updating trackitt. Also, reference period might have been under-counted since a few there would have snuck in during 07/07.

[vizcard]

As commented earlier, I do not have calculations or Tarrot

But based past trend and gut feeling(I will not say common sense to offend others)

I tend to agree with sportfan

Before 2013 April most of the 2009 (may be a few 2010 filers) may get GCs(if found approvable and all RFE's cleared) and PD may progress atleast 3-6 months at that time(up to 2010 end by April 2013)

Reaons may be many - low 2009 cases/past history/too many audits/RFEs- economic situation/elections/and so on.

bvsamrat - I'll have some of what u r smoking (or drinking) :)

Even if you take 1500/ month, you are still looking at 18K for 2008 PDs (we know its more). Even if by some miracle we get to the end of 2007 in FY12. We will need 35K in SOFAD in FY2013 (i.e. Sept 2013) to clear 2008 and 2009. Even if you say there are RFEs and stuff ON TOP OF the already low 1500/month, we will still need 25-30K or so to clear 2008 and 2009 by SEPT 2013.

So in short you are saying that we will have 25-30K visas available by April 2013 for EB2IC.... seriously, I'll have some of what ur having.

[GhostWriter]

sportsfan33, it would be hard for USCIS to prevent not renewing the EADs at least for 2009 PDs. Most of the Feb filers (2009 PDs) who received EADs in March or April will apply for renewal keeping in mind the 90-day processing time. Hence they will apply in Jan or Feb 2013. Given the numbers it does not seem likely that 2009 PDs will have GCs by Jan or Feb 2013 even with aggressive QSP in Oct-2012.




My take: As before, I continue to believe that the USCIS would want to minimize renewing EAD/AP for free.

[eb2visa]

As per the I485 inventory published in Jan, the 2008 Q1 inventory is high, but later it decreased a lot. I hope there were many approvals of 2008 and my take is they will clear 2009 by end of FY13. I will consider the statement posted in April Builletin

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_Jan2012.pdf

[eb2visa]

Very much interesting numbers

Counting Pending Petitions at NVC, USCIS I-485 Inventory And I-140 Receipts

http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/articles/a2012-03-30.html

[murali83]

bvsamrat - I'll have some of what u r smoking (or drinking) :)

Even if you take 1500/ month, you are still looking at 18K for 2008 PDs (we know its more). Even if by some miracle we get to the end of 2007 in FY12. We will need 35K in SOFAD in FY2013 (i.e. Sept 2013) to clear 2008 and 2009. Even if you say there are RFEs and stuff ON TOP OF the already low 1500/month, we will still need 25-30K or so to clear 2008 and 2009 by SEPT 2013.

So in short you are saying that we will have 25-30K visas available by April 2013 for EB2IC.... seriously, I'll have some of what ur having.

I completely concur with vizcard

[murali83]

sportsfan33, it would be hard for USCIS to prevent not renewing the EADs at least for 2009 PDs. Most of the Feb filers (2009 PDs) who received EADs in March or April will apply for renewal keeping in mind the 90-day processing time. Hence they will apply in Jan or Feb 2013. Given the numbers it does not seem likely that 2009 PDs will have GCs by Jan or Feb 2013 even with aggressive QSP in Oct-2012.

You said exactly what I had in my mind, considering the shock mr CO has had with aggressive QSP this year (I am not saying he wont do QSP next year, but it will be more calibrated), by Feb 2013, we might just see zero backlog until March 15, 2008 at best. I just dont see 2009 being touched in Fy 2013, unless they have approved tons of 2008 pd's and we have no data for that until the demand data is released.

[suninphx]

bvsamrat - I'll have some of what u r smoking (or drinking) :)

Even if you take 1500/ month, you are still looking at 18K for 2008 PDs (we know its more). Even if by some miracle we get to the end of 2007 in FY12. We will need 35K in SOFAD in FY2013 (i.e. Sept 2013) to clear 2008 and 2009. Even if you say there are RFEs and stuff ON TOP OF the already low 1500/month, we will still need 25-30K or so to clear 2008 and 2009 by SEPT 2013.

So in short you are saying that we will have 25-30K visas available by April 2013 for EB2IC.... seriously, I'll have some of what ur having.

And whats your reasoning for EB2IC not getting 25K SOFAD for FY2013. I dont think its impossible number for FY2013.


You said exactly what I had in my mind, considering the shock mr CO has had with aggressive QSP this year (I am not saying he wont do QSP next year, but it will be more calibrated), by Feb 2013, we might just see zero backlog until March 15, 2008 at best. I just dont see 2009 being touched in Fy 2013, unless they have approved tons of 2008 pd's and we have no data for that until the demand data is released.

I always wonder why we take CO's action with its face value. I dont think they were shocked or anything. They wanted demand generated aggessively and hence the movement. Next year requirement may be different so they may pace the move accordingly but dates reaching Mar 15, 2008 by Feb 2013 is too conservative, IMO.

[Kanmani]

And whats your reasoning for EB2IC not getting 25K SOFAD for FY2013. I dont think its impossible number for FY2013.

I always wonder why we take CO's action with its face value. I dont think they were shocked or anything. They wanted demand generated aggessively and hence the movement. Next year requirement may be different so they may pace the move accordingly but dates reaching Mar 15, 2008 by Feb 2013 is too conservative, IMO.

Sun, I agree with you. It is the combination of demand and spillover which is going to determine FY2013. CO is quite confident to move the dates back to May'10 at some point in FY 2013 denotes he must have analysed the pattern of incoming demand. He has a very solid figure in hand and that figure is manageable too. as sports said, he knows the tactics of balancing the other categories very well.

Something is going to happen starting Oct'12, We'll wait and watch.

[bvsamrat]

Whateever may be the reason, the PD should atleast reach back to the 2010 by next April(if not before). Then it would be free for all and lucky ones will GC. All 30K may not!.Just be ready for this.(I never said all 2009 filers, Which would never happen at any time).


:) Nothing unusual, just a cheap bourbon! I completely agree with what you are saying, and I wish if I had a device with which I could peek into my lawyer's mind and understand why he said whatever he said.

Cleaning out all the 2009 filers is indeed very difficult by April 2013. Also, someone mentioned that because of 90 day processing times, people will start applying in January 2013 itself (of course the USCIS has a choice to *either* send the GC *or* send the EAD renewal, so they might simply choose one or the other). However one of the themes seems to be that CO may not be afraid of using aggressive QSP and clear as many applications as possible *up front* in FY 2013 rather than wait until July. There is a very powerful motive for doing so. This may represent only a portion of the 2009 filers when all said and done, and the remaining...yes, they will have to renew those EADs.

I guess when my lawyer mentioned that he advises the company not to renew the H1Bs, the company will automatically send EAD renewal applications for those whose H1B will expire meanwhile. Perhaps he is bluffing when he says that he expects most people with EADs to get their GCs within 1 year. The real reason could be that my company is cheap and simply wants to save H1B renewal fee, since EAD can be renewed for free.

[murali83]

Whateever may be the reason, the PD should atleast reach back to the 2010 by next April(if not before). Then it would be free for all and lucky ones will GC. All 30K may not!.Just be ready for this.(I never said all 2009 filers, Which would never happen at any time).

Lets wait and watch. USCIS has all the data they need to know by now. It is just supply and demand. If they feel that they will have 25-30K visas to provide EB2I-C in Fy 2013, they will move the dates from Aug 2007 to where ever the line hits 25K pre-adjudicated visas which might be well within 2008 or into 2009. So I will conclusively say that in FY 2013 they have no need to generate more demand and collect applications. So there is absolutely no reason to move dates to 2010. There is one possibility though it is remote.

Let us say that in 2007 there are just 3K filers in the system (instead of the 5K we are assuming and the 3K are cleared in fy 2012 itself through some miraculous last minute fall down from Eb1) then We will have 0 pending inventory for pd's prior to 2008. In 2008, best case lets say (2.5 months, 50% cleared and the remaining 9.5 months, 20% cleared = around 3.2 months cleared). So we still have 8.8 months to clear in 2008. Even optimistically that is 1500*8.8 = 13200 visas needed (please keep in mind we have no indications of 1500, it is very optimistic). 2009 considered to the lean year, let us say has 12 months of 1200 = 14400 visas. So to clear both 2008 and 2009 they would need close to 28000 or even 30000 accounting for some added porting. So that is the best case scene. Now in this case, if this is what CO has on his table, he would feel that USCIS might not have enough applications for FY 2014. So he may advance dates beyond April 2010 towards the end of fy 2013 or he can do that even early fy 2014. There is absolutely no reason for him to take applications with pd's beyond April 2010 in early fy 2013 and completely issue gc's at random and then again regress dates. They did not do that in the 2007 fiasco and there is no reason for them to repeat that.

[mbasense]

And whats your reasoning for EB2IC not getting 25K SOFAD for FY2013. I dont think its impossible number for FY2013.

I always wonder why we take CO's action with its face value. I dont think they were shocked or anything. They wanted demand generated aggessively and hence the movement. Next year requirement may be different so they may pace the move accordingly but dates reaching Mar 15, 2008 by Feb 2013 is too conservative, IMO.


Sun, I agree with you. It is the combination of demand and spillover which is going to determine FY2013. CO is quite confident to move the dates back to May'10 at some point in FY 2013 denotes he must have analysed the pattern of incoming demand. He has a very solid figure in hand and that figure is manageable too. as sports said, he knows the tactics of balancing the other categories very well.

Something is going to happen starting Oct'12, We'll wait and watch.

Completely agree with kanmani and suninphx. even in the last bulletin, it was mentioned that the PD will go back to May 10 at some point in FY 13. Knowing CO and his recent predictions, surely he has some plans in place.

[murali83]

I agree with the processing time lag, but NOT with the logic that *only* March 2008 would be cleared by next April. This is assuming the worst case scenario of absolutely no spillover and 4 months of unavailability and minimal to no QSP next FY. Yes, it could happen, but there are good reasons for the USCIS/DOS not to let it happen. The whole pre-adjudication - EAD renewal - asking for the EVL again - keeping those files safe in a lock box - sending the GC when number is available cycle is vicious and triplicates the work done by the USCIS per case. Unless they get some revenue for all this trouble (circa pre-July 2007 applicants), there is no motivation for them to do so.

What are some of the more exotic things they can conjure up? I don't know. Some possibilities: a) Delaying cases with RFEs and controlling the demand generated as time progresses, b) Generating volatility in VBs - make it 'U' one bulletin and 'C' the next as an extreme example, the point being, while it is 'C', they send out approved GCs and while it is 'U', they stop the flood gates, c) approving as many cases as possible *up front* using aggressive QSP and following it with long stretches of 'U' bulletins, d) increasing the processing times for other categories and creating a large spillover for EB2-IC in 2013 (circa 2011), e) stop pre-adjudicating the current applications all together to not generate additional demand (seems like they are not doing this, but I still hold this as one of my pet theories) etc. They may have more arsenal that we are not aware of.

I can see that we don't have data, good information and it seems to be purposefully hidden from us. Are we going to see demand data with good numbers this time? It's anyone's guess. My guess is no. Either we don't see the demand data report, or we continue seeing the same meaningless numbers as we did in previous VBs.

Sportsfan,

I am not sure if they have to conjure up so much. My fundamental issue is that, just because CO released a statement about moving dates to April 2010 asap, it does not mean he has to do it in 2013. Why don't we just look at it in a very simple manner. Just look at what they did after july 2007. They have pre-adjudicated app's with them, they know what is the approx supply they will have. My simple guess is they will move dates slow and steady without any upheaval.

Sample:
Oct 2012 - Jan 1, 2008
Nov 2012 - Mar 15, 2008
Dec 2012 - Mar 15, 2008
Jan 2013 - April 30, 2008
Feb 2013 - June 30, 2008
Mar 2013 - June 30, 2008
April 2013 - Aug 30, 2008
May 2013 - Aug 30, 2008
June 2013 - Aug 30, 2008
July 2013 - Oct 30, 2008
Sep and Oct 2013 - Movement based on left over visas if any.

At this stage he takes a stock what the possible visa availabilty for 2014 is and sees the pending inventory is and decides if dates need to be advanced to allow filing of additional 485's or not.

[suninphx]

Completely agree with kanmani and suninphx. even in the last bulletin, it was mentioned that the PD will go back to May 10 at some point in FY 13. Knowing CO and his recent predictions, surely he has some plans in place.

I would like to take that statement from CO with pinch (or bunch ? :) ) of salt. But it has lot of directional importance. Specially when it comes from a person who has most definative data points.

[murali83]

My guess is since it was july an the next fy started immediately they had to do that. But now they have almost 2 full quarters to do all the pre-adjudication and stabilize things.

[Kanmani]

There is a uscis memorandum effective from Jan 2011 which says "Employment-based cases where a visa number is not immediately available at the time of
adjudication must be transferred to the Texas Service Center" The application must be pre-adjudicated before sending to TSC

So keeping IC applications aside is ruled out .

Back to demand analysis, Co himself had expressed in a way that USCIS sofar received only 50% of what they expected to receive and the remaining people cannot apply at this time after retrogression .


So why can't we take this statement with a pinch of sugar for a change ?

[suninphx]

There is a uscis memorandum effective from Jan 2011 which says "Employment-based cases where a visa number is not immediately available at the time of
adjudication must be transferred to the Texas Service Center" The application must be pre-adjudicated before sending to TSC

So keeping IC applications aside is ruled out .

Back to demand analysis, Co himself had expressed in a way that USCIS sofar received only 50% of what they expected to receive and the remaining people cannot apply at this time after retrogression .


So why can't we take this statement with a pinch of sugar for a change ?

Only problem is we dont know what their expectation was! Or that statement could be more towards defending the aggreessive move.

[Kanmani]

Demand Data is out

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[kd2008]

I don't know why the thread was closed ..but I opened it!

EB2 Demand data:

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2008 500 2,600 0 3,100
January 1, 2009 2,325 10,150 0 12,475
January 1, 2010 2,925 12,525 0 15,450
January 1, 2012 2,950 12,650 150 15,750

So at first cut, there are 15,600 EB2IC pre-adjudicated. This number will probably triple by the end of this fiscal year. I wish it restricts itself to just doubling itself, and not more :-)

[asankaran]

Thanks Kanmani. Very useful piece of information!!

Sweet!


Thanks Kanmani!

[abcx13]

I don't know why the thread was closed ..but I opened it!

EB2 Demand data:

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2008 500 2,600 0 3,100
January 1, 2009 2,325 10,150 0 12,475
January 1, 2010 2,925 12,525 0 15,450
January 1, 2012 2,950 12,650 150 15,750

I don't really know how to interpret demand data but this means that there were at least 12.5k "documentarily qualified" cases between July 2007 and March 2008. Since Dec. bulletin had only been in force for a month, there were probably some pre-March 08 cases that had not been filed yet and ones that USCIS had not considered yet. This gives a density of 1785/month, to which you should add your estimate of cases which were not documentarily qualified or had not been considered by USCIS.

Am I thinking about this the right way? It would have been more helpful if they had given us demand/qualified cases till April 2012 or something. Looking forward to I485 inventory now.

[kd2008]

I don't really know how to interpret demand data but this means that there were at least 12.5k "documentarily qualified" cases between July 2007 and March 2008. Since Dec. bulletin had only been in force for a month, there were probably some pre-March 08 cases that had not been filed yet and ones that USCIS had not considered yet. This gives a density of 1785/month, to which you should add your estimate of cases which were not documentarily qualified or had not been considered by USCIS.

Am I thinking about this the right way? It would have been more helpful if they had given us demand/qualified cases till April 2012 or something. Looking forward to I485 inventory now.

This has nothing to do with March 2008 and VB bulletin cutoff in the past. USCIS does not pre-adjudicate cases in FIFO.

The Jan 2012 is the PD & not the date of application. I think that is where you are wrong.

[abcx13]

This has nothing to do with March 2008 and VB bulletin cutoff in the past. USCIS does not pre-adjudicate cases in FIFO.

Not sure I understand. If the pipeline at the beginning of the FY was mostly empty, then the only additions can be old unqualified cases becoming qualified or new cases being pre-adjudicated/"qualified". Since the pipeline was empty, doesn't that mean that most of this demand was from cases submitted before the Jan visa bulletin being adjudicated or qualified and consular cases?

An explanation would be appreciated since the demand date is one of those things I don't quite understand!

Thanks

[la_2002_ch]

Not sure I understand. If the pipeline at the beginning of the FY was mostly empty, then the only additions can be old unqualified cases becoming qualified or new cases being pre-adjudicated/"qualified". Since the pipeline was empty, doesn't that mean that most of this demand was from cases submitted before the Jan visa bulletin being adjudicated or qualified and consular cases?

An explanation would be appreciated since the demand date is one of those things I don't quite understand!

Thanks

These numbers indicate that these many applications are processed and ready to be issued a GC, but rhe VISA number is not available. What it means is that since Mar 23rd 2012, when they stopped issuing GCs (Internal retrogress) these many applications for Jul2007 - Dec 31 2008 (in referrence to your 12.5K figure) are pending.

[abcx13]

These numbers indicate that these many applications are processed and ready to be issued a GC, but rhe VISA number is not available. What it means is that since Mar 23rd 2012, when they stopped issuing GCs (Internal retrogress) these many applications for Jul2007 - Dec 31 2008 (in referrence to your 12.5K figure) are pending.

Gotcha, thanks - so these are pending applications! Not no. of qualified cases before Jan 2012 that were approved in between Jan 2012 and now. That makes a lot more sense. I'm so stupid, I was thinking it was the other way round.

Though I'm still slightly confused about why this would be all the pending cases from Jul 2007 - Dec 2008. Why not till March 2008 since that was the date of the Dec bulletin and they couldn't possibly know Jan visa bulletin demand until after Jan?

One more question: when they say cumulative demand prior to date xyz, does that cumulative demand prior to CO date of bulletin of that month? Or does it mean qualified applications received up to Jan 1, 2012? If the latter, that would mean there are still some qualified pending applications that are possibly with pre-March 2008 dates that they are not counting in this data, right?

[kd2008]

Gotcha, thanks - so these are pending applications! Not no. of qualified cases before Jan 2012 that were approved in between Jan 2012 and now. That makes a lot more sense. I'm so stupid, I was thinking it was the other way round.

Though I'm still slightly confused about why this would be all the pending cases from Jul 2007 - Dec 2008. Why not till March 2008 since that was the date of the Dec bulletin and they couldn't possibly know Jan visa bulletin demand until after Jan?

One more question: when they say cumulative demand prior to date xyz, does that cumulative demand prior to CO date of bulletin of that month? Or does it mean qualified applications received up to Jan 1, 2012? If the latter, that would mean there are still some qualified pending applications that are possibly with pre-March 2008 dates that they are not counting in this data, right?

I edited my post earlier to explain your doubt away. "1 Jan 2012" refers to the PD and not the received date of the application. Like wise for 1 Jan 2008 etc.

So upto PD of 1 Jan 2008 there are 3100 pre-adjudicated cases awaiting visa numbers to be available. So on and so forth.

PS: I have deleted posts that informed that the demand data has been released as these were duplicate.

[devi_pd]

I am hoping a big chuck of the 2008 PDs are in this demand data because some 2009 PDs(around 2K) also have been preadjudicated. If we assume 70% of 2008 PDs are already here, the total 2008 EB2IC demand would be 9375+3k = 12,375 which is not that bad. We should easily get to the end of 2008 by FY2013.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I edited my post earlier to explain your doubt away. "1 Jan 2012" refers to the PD and not the received date of the application. Like wise for 1 Jan 2008 etc.

So upto PD of 1 Jan 2008 there are 3100 pre-adjudicated cases awaiting visa numbers to be available. So on and so forth.

PS: I have deleted posts that informed that the demand data has been released as these were duplicate.

Thanks kd for the explanation. May be this is a dumb question but does it tell us anything about the nature of demand, high or low or should we wait for I-485 inventory to get a better picture of the situation?

[la_2002_ch]

I am hoping a big chuck of the 2008 PDs are in this demand data because some 2009 PDs(around 2K) also have been preadjudicated. If we assume 70% of 2008 PDs are already here, the total 2008 EB2IC demand would be 9375+3k = 12,375 which is not that bad. We should easily get to the end of 2008 by FY2013.

I maybe wrong, but based on this data, IMO, the toal DD for Jul 2007-Dec 2008 would/should be around 15K (12.5K already in system, 2.5K additional for people like me who are yet to be pre-adjudicated, who filed late i.e. in Feb-Mar Bulletins, etc.). My estimate doesnt include any Porting cases.

[abcx13]

I edited my post earlier to explain your doubt away. "1 Jan 2012" refers to the PD and not the received date of the application. Like wise for 1 Jan 2008 etc.

So upto PD of 1 Jan 2008 there are 3100 pre-adjudicated cases awaiting visa numbers to be available. So on and so forth.

PS: I have deleted posts that informed that the demand data has been released as these were duplicate.

I see - makes sense. I also re-read Spec's explanation here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates) and think I understand it a lot better now. I was also making the mistake of not adding EB2I and EB2C together.

These are pretty low numbers I think and if USCIS has finished pre-adjudicating all the 2008 cases, then we're looking at 12.5k remaining cases before the end of 2008. Obviously not all 2009 cases have been pre-adjudicated (there can't be only ~3000!). But let's hope this demand data has the majority of 2008 and 2007 cases. I guess next demand data and the I485 inventory at the end of the month will tell the full story as to how many remaining un-adjudicated 2008 cases there might be. If the number of cases with 2008 PDs does not go up, we should indeed get well into 2009 in FY2013 (we would only need 7k SOFAD).

Am I putting too much faith in the I485 inventory by saying that it would be the absolute upper bound for pre-2009 cases?

[murali83]

I edited my post earlier to explain your doubt away. "1 Jan 2012" refers to the PD and not the received date of the application. Like wise for 1 Jan 2008 etc.

So upto PD of 1 Jan 2008 there are 3100 pre-adjudicated cases awaiting visa numbers to be available. So on and so forth.

PS: I have deleted posts that informed that the demand data has been released as these were duplicate.

kd2008,

Do you think the numbers prior to 2008 will go up significantly. I mean I am hoping at least 80% of the pending inventory prior to 2007 is pre-adjudicated and has shown up in the numbers. So I assume worst case 4000 should be the full number prior to 2008. Starting 2008, I guess we should wait for some time and see when they release the next data set.

[kd2008]

kd2008,

Do you think the numbers prior to 2008 will go up significantly. I mean I am hoping at least 80% of the pending inventory prior to 2007 is pre-adjudicated and has shown up in the numbers. So I assume worst case 4000 should be the full number prior to 2008. Starting 2008, I guess we should wait for some time and see when they release the next data set.

Short answer: Yes, most likely they will go up significantly.

Long answer: Technically, enough time has lapsed that USCIS should have finished pre-adjudicating all pre-2008 cases and the number shouldn't change much. But reality has always been otherwise - and I am saying this from following USCIS behavior for past 4 years.

These are numbers the DoS is seeing as requested by USCIS.

USCIS for all its efficiency improvements is an extremely tardy organization when it comes to being transparent with data and numbers. One has to take these numbers with a pinch of salt.

[imdeng]

Hmm... here are my first thoughts on EB2I numbers:
1. 2.6K (almost the entire year's regular quota) are still standing with 2007 PDs! This is higher than my expectations.
2. Only 7.5K with 2008 PDs. Even assuming that half of demand till Mar-15 2008 and 20% of the demand for the rest of 2008 has been issued a visa, this is still low. This includes Dec and Jan VB. Perhaps some part of Jan VB has not reached documentarily qualified status yet. Even though this number may increase somewhat in future, it is still low enough for us to be a little more optimistic about PD movement in FY2013. This would be the key number to follow in future DDs.
3. 2.5K with 2009 PD - this is understandably low as only a few of Feb VB would have reached documentarily qualified status. This number should increase significantly in coming months.


Demand Prior To -- China ---- India -- All Other -- Grand Total
January 1, 2008 ---- 500 ---- 2,600 ---- 0 -------- 3,100
January 1, 2009 ---- 2,325 -- 10,150 --- 0 -------- 12,475
January 1, 2010 ---- 2,925 -- 12,525 --- 0 -------- 15,450
January 1, 2012 ---- 2,950 -- 12,650 --- 150 -------15,750

[kd2008]

Thanks kd for the explanation. May be this is a dumb question but does it tell us anything about the nature of demand, high or low or should we wait for I-485 inventory to get a better picture of the situation?

Sorry, I missed your question. In my opinion is these are low numbers and they are low not because there were fewer applications files but because USCIS hasn't yet pre-adjudicated a large of applications.

[devi_pd]

An interesting thing to note here is that for China, just the regular quota would be sufficient to go all the way till the end of 2008. India would consume all the spillover in FY2013.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Sorry, I missed your question. In my opinion is these are low numbers and they are low not because there were fewer applications files but because USCIS hasn't yet pre-adjudicated a large of applications.

Thanks again.

[raoster]

Guys I have a question - does USCIS process 485 application based on priority date or receipt date? My PD is 12/14/07 and I was only able to file on April 18th. Wondering if 2008 people will get their greencards before me?

Thanks

[bieber]

I am hoping a big chuck of the 2008 PDs are in this demand data because some 2009 PDs(around 2K) also have been preadjudicated. If we assume 70% of 2008 PDs are already here, the total 2008 EB2IC demand would be 9375+3k = 12,375 which is not that bad. We should easily get to the end of 2008 by FY2013.

very good observation

[Jonty Rhodes]

CM just posted this comment on his blog after the demand data was out.

I just now finished talking to our attorney friend, he is suggesting that EB2-IC is becoming 'U' in coming bulletin. There is also a chance that EB2-ROW/M/P will have cut-off dates assigned to them in July visa bulletin. He sounded confident about this.

Lets see what will happen. Good Luck.

Here is the link

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/04/june2012-visa-bulletin-predictions-eb.html

[bieber]

It appears atleast all the 2008 cases are touched and either been issued RFE or waiting for BG checks (Since some of the 2009 cases are already pre-adjudicated, this number could be minimal). Next demand data should make things clear but I think it might take less than 20,000 SOFAD for fy2013 to clear 2008 which seems verymuch possible. at what point of fy2013 we will see 2009 Jan1 PD is anybodys guess

[bieber]

CM just posted this comment on his blog after the demand data was out.

I just now finished talking to our attorney friend, he is suggesting that EB2-IC is becoming 'U' in coming bulletin. There is also a chance that EB2-ROW/M/P will have cut-off dates assigned to them in July visa bulletin. He sounded confident about this.

Lets see what will happen. Good Luck.

Here is the link

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/04/june2012-visa-bulletin-predictions-eb.html

Imposing U on EB2IC (officially) will make things better in October, smaller backlog from EB1, EB2ROW helps CO to use as many numbers towards EB2IC early in the fy

[Spectator]

Sorry, I missed your question. In my opinion is these are low numbers and they are low not because there were fewer applications files but because USCIS hasn't yet pre-adjudicated a large of applications.kd,

I agree.

The numbers are higher than I had expected, but that probably just means USCIS are pre-adjudicating them a bit faster than I thought they could.

I don't think we can speculate on the final numbers with just this single data point, especially as so many cases are still probably out for RFE. I was expecting it to take several months for USCIS to work through the backlog.

But if the cases essentially started being added to the Demand Data from March 23 (when internal retrogression to Aug 15, 2007 was announced), then USCIS appeared to have pre-adjudicated 15.5k EB2-IC cases in 46 days, or about 10k / month. That is pretty impressive, considering they still had other Categories / Countries to adjudicate as well.

[goforgreen]

Guys I have a question - does USCIS process 485 application based on priority date or receipt date? My PD is 12/14/07 and I was only able to file on April 18th. Wondering if 2008 people will get their greencards before me?

Thanks

Once a PD is set any case with PD lesser than current PD is game for approval as long as visas are available. In your case whenever PD moves beyond your PD your case can get approved irrespective of RD.

RD was very relevant when there was rapid forward movement in Oct 11 to Mar 12 and folks in 2008 got GCs before 2007 based on an earlier RD. Now I dont think RD matters much as there will be SFM (hopefully). SFM is an acronym coined by the folks here, Sustainable Forward Movement

[murali83]

Wow.

Unless the USCIS has pre-adjudicated a really large percentage of 2008 applications, this is looking pretty bad for EB2-I.

Assuming 8000 visas were given for 2008 PDs and almost 8000 showing right now in the demand data, EB2-I is already close to 16K for the year 2008. If the USCIS is still pre-adjudicating EB2-I applications, there is not much DD after all. Combined, EB2-IC are already over 20K for the year 2008 and they might push towards 24K...not very good.

Also, 2600 are still remaining from 2007?!?! Porting again seems to be on the rise.

I want to remain optimistic and keep thinking that we are very near to the end of the tunnel. If not, 2008 too will turn out to be a difficult year to get out of like 2007.

Sportsfan,

Thats a pretty high number. Even if 50% of Jan to Mar 15 2008 and 15% (I personally would go with 10-12%) of the rest of 2008 were to be issued visas, and assuming density of approx 2000 a month, they could not have issued any more than 6000 for 2008 pd's.

[imdeng]

I don't think numbers are too bad. We have 23.5K EB2I PERM in 2008. Without DD, we would expect 23.5K 485 applications with 2008 PD or a 2K/month density. We are going to stay below this.

Lets assume that the density is a uniform X/month in 2008. Further assume that 50% of applicants till Mar-15 have been approved and 15% of applicants in rest of 2008 have been approved. Finally, lets assume that 80% unapproved Dec VB is pre-adj'ed and 50% of unapproved Jan VB is pre-adj'ed. This will give us the following:

2.5X * 0.5 * 0.8 + 9.5X * 0.85 * 0.5 = 7.5K => X ~ 1.5K/month

This shows a demand destruction of 25% (density going from 2K/month as expected from PERM of 23.5K to 1.5K/month).

Note that the situation is perhaps better than this since latter months of 2008 are less dense than first few months of 2008 (contrary to the uniform X assumed above).



Wow.

Unless the USCIS has pre-adjudicated a really large percentage of 2008 applications, this is looking pretty bad for EB2-I.

Assuming 8000 visas were given for 2008 PDs and almost 8000 showing right now in the demand data, EB2-I is already close to 16K for the year 2008. If the USCIS is still pre-adjudicating EB2-I applications, there is not much DD after all. Combined, EB2-IC are already over 20K for the year 2008 and they might push towards 24K...not very good.

Also, 2600 are still remaining from 2007?!?! Porting again seems to be on the rise.

I want to remain optimistic and keep thinking that we are very near to the end of the tunnel. If not, 2008 too will turn out to be a difficult year to get out of like 2007.

[suninphx]

Understood. So almost 5K 2008 PDs are greened (2.5 * 1500 * 0.5 + 9.5 * 1500 * 0.15), 7.5K show up in demand today, and about 5K more should show up.

Assume 1K porters might also show up by the time the dates open.

So pre-2009, there will be approximately 21K left for clearance.

I did a quick OR based calculation. I am assuming OR of 0.75 for both PD2008/09.

Pre 2008 --> 2500 in demand data + 500 potential increase = 3K
PD2008 --> 28000(EB2/3IC PERM) * .75 = 21000 - 5000(approx approved) = 16K
PD2009 --> 18000(EB2/3IC PERM) * .75 = 13.5K

So we need around 33-35K to clear upto PD 2009 if above assumptions are true. Does not look that bad for now.

[TeddyKoochu]

Demand data is out - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
The overall demand data for EB2 I/C is 15750. The numbers especially for 2009 and 2010 are extremely low this is the region that is definitely seems to be work in progress. However still the maximum this number could possibly rise to would be 22 - 25K or let’s rationalize it to 25K including porting for the year 2013 the situation seems to be much better than anticipated earlier. I believe that it is almost a certainty that around Oct 2013 the next intake will happen almost for sure because this in all likelihood is the time when the numbers will come close to exhaustion. If the demand data does not build up it may well come earlier.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Demand data is out - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
The overall demand data for EB2 I/C is 15750. The numbers especially for 2009 and 2010 are extremely low this is the region that is definitely seems to be work in progress. However still the maximum this number could possibly rise to would be 22 - 25K or let’s rationalize it to 25K including porting for the year 2013 the situation seems to be much better than anticipated earlier. I believe that it is almost a certainty that around Oct 2013 the next intake will happen almost for sure because this in all likelihood is the time when the numbers will come close to exhaustion. If the demand data does not build up it may well come earlier.

Good to hear from you Teddy after a long time. So basically it seems from above all posts that the scenario for EB2IC is not as bad as expected and the dates should start moving at reasonable pace come Oct 2012 when new quota opens.

However, my mind is still fixated on the quote from CO in May visa bulletin.

Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer.

I am still wondering whether to take this quote on its face value or not pay much attention to it. I don't even know how CO or USCIS/DOS is planning to do this. But I sincerely wish CO sticks to his words and brings the dates back in reasonable time.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

I wouldn't put much trust in 2009 and 2010 numbers since its quite possible USCIS hasn't even touched most of those cases - let alone them be documentarily qualified or not.

To understand how big the overall pipeline is going to be - the best data to look at would be USCIS inventory since that reports all cases - not just documentarily qualified ones.



Demand data is out - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
The overall demand data for EB2 I/C is 15750. The numbers especially for 2009 and 2010 are extremely low this is the region that is definitely seems to be work in progress. However still the maximum this number could possibly rise to would be 22 - 25K or let’s rationalize it to 25K including porting for the year 2013 the situation seems to be much better than anticipated earlier. I believe that it is almost a certainty that around Oct 2013 the next intake will happen almost for sure because this in all likelihood is the time when the numbers will come close to exhaustion. If the demand data does not build up it may well come earlier.

[imdeng]

Sure - but USCIS has gone into super-secret-mode. Every piece if data is coming late - we still don't have the annual report for FY2011 that finished 7 months back. Who knows when (and if) they will publish the next inventory.

Teddy

I wouldn't put much trust in 2009 and 2010 numbers since its quite possible USCIS hasn't even touched most of those cases - let alone them be documentarily qualified or not.

To understand how big the overall pipeline is going to be - the best data to look at would be USCIS inventory since that reports all cases - not just documentarily qualified ones.

[PD2008AUG25]

Sure - but USCIS has gone into super-secret-mode. Every piece if data is coming late - we still don't have the annual report for FY2011 that finished 7 months back. Who knows when (and if) they will publish the next inventory.

looks like they have been publishing inventory report in May since last 2 years. we can hope for one by this month's end.

[murali83]

Sportsfan,

Hate to debate this again. But i guess we agree to disagree. One of purposes of retrogression is to ensure that gc's are issued with some order to them. I believe USCIS will pre-adjudicate all 2008 and most of the 2009 cases well before september 2012. There is no reason for them to push deep and then retrogress again. They will only do what you have suggested if they have pre-adjudicated cases randomly and a whole lot of cases are pending. Looking at the demand data they seem pretty fast and orderly. So i am not going to guess on possible cod's. I would just say that all cases filed until march 30 will be pre- adjudicated by sep 30.

On a side note, if my LUD is not changing, does that mean they have not touched my file.

Cheers

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

I wouldn't put much trust in 2009 and 2010 numbers since its quite possible USCIS hasn't even touched most of those cases - let alone them be documentarily qualified or not.

To understand how big the overall pipeline is going to be - the best data to look at would be USCIS inventory since that reports all cases - not just documentarily qualified ones.

Q, I have been part of that school of thought that did believe that 35K should be the total outstanding number till May 2010. However looking at the demand data being just at 15K odd where I believe that most of 2008 cases atleast 80% of the pending ones are represented I have doubts that the number would actually increase to 35K. The 2009 and 2010 numbers are being under-reported for sure. 2009 is expected to be a weak year so the expected addition for all deficiencies would be around 10K - 12K range which makes it 27K this is significantly short of 35K. The last inventory was way off I hope this one is better. Even for the pre-207 preadjudicated inventory did we see a significant difference between the inventory being at 14K while demand data being just 8.5K, possibly they have not been cleaning the denials, withdrawals, porting cases from there very efficiently. Also 2009 is almost like pristine zone once the inventory is out we can compute demand destruction OR from there.

[murali83]

Exactly Sportsfan

Just one more thing. I dont quite understand the need to retogress. I think they would just stall at a date which matches lets say 20k visas. So my point is if they have 40 k predadjudicated, they move to a date which matches 20 k and then stop there. They would only retrogress if they moved beyond the line of 20k or if they have not preadjudicated properly and still have some pending before the date to which they moved or they have heavy porting.

On a side note, when you say 7.5k 2008, isn't that just india. Should n't we add china as well?

[Kanmani]

Sun, I partially agree with your numbers ( Still hanging with my original but slightly different OR of .6 :))

Sports,Congratulations! on your EAD/AP approval .

In my opinion NSC is still processing their final batch 2008 numbers (not RFE cases), both TSC and NSC have 2008 RFE cases pending.

As I said earlier TSC has started 2009 cases from the 2nd week of April and still processing .

[Kanmani]

DOS is currently issuing visa numbers to USCIS and other consular posts through online process. The IO could get a visa number by just entering his ID and few details online. For the ROW countries they are always within their per country limit and always current and there is no reason any single country could get 2800 in a single day . But in the case of India during these intake seasons, if the PD is current, there is a possibility that India may be allotted visas in thousands within a short span of time. This could be one of the reasons for retrogression.

[mesan123]

Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory published as of may 3rd.....if anyone already posted this let me know will remove the link

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

[abcx13]

Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory published as of may 3rd.....if anyone already posted this let me know will remove the link

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRDJesus, that was unexpected! And it's an Excel file too. Wasn't somebody calling USCIS tardy upthread?

[vizcard]

they absolutely had to retrogress.
1. They couldn't give anyone and everyone up to May 2010 GCs. The numbers just don't support it.
2. Moving it to Aug 2007 is reasonable as they want to make sure that any remaining visas go to the earliest PDs - most likely the ones who have been waiting since the beginning of time.
3. Now that they have a better read on numbers, they can start moving in a more systematic form.

PS: I don't want to derail the thread from calculation but I think if someone ports from EB3 to EB2, they shouldn't be allowed to retain their PDs. The criteria really should be the date someone with appropriate qualifications applies in a particular category. If person A was qualified for EB2 in 2008, he/ she should have preference over someone who qualified for EB2 in 2010. To apply it to the current scenario, a Aug 14, 2007 EB3 applicant who ported over to EB2 in 2011 (i.e. earned EB2 credentials in 2011) will be ahead of a Aug 15, 2007 EB2 applicant. How does that make sense?

I'm going to get off my soap box now .. .back to your regularly scheduled programming.

[imdeng]

Good God Almighty! Just yesterday I was cribbing about the slow release of info from USCIS - and here comes the inventory! Awesome. Thanks Mesan.

Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory published as of may 3rd.....if anyone already posted this let me know will remove the link

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

[kd2008]

God Almighty!

EB2IC inventory is 39,577 + 8337 = 47,914!!!!

That is a HUGE number!

Teddy, you are not right in your estimate of 25K.

[Kanmani]

Sun, look at the 2009 number, its exact as you predicted!!!! God, the porting is at your speed.

[abcx13]

So current 2008 demand numbers are only 50% of the total inventory for India? That's really damaging. Interesting to see if all the remaining numbers get converted into demand by September 2012.

2009 numbers are real low. Only @1000 per month. That year will be a breeze. 2010 is showing increase as the months progress. I think that will be a difficult year to get out of.

Unless we get a real good spillover, I see it difficult to cross 2008 next FY. No idea why my lawyer said he was expecting 2009 PDs to get their GCs.

What's the Guru's take on pending inventory for EB1 and EB2-ROW? Are these numbers lower or higher, and do we have any hope for some spillover this summer?

EDIT: I may not be reading this correctly, but looking at the Oct'11 and Jan'12 inventories, I see EB1 and EB2-ROW numbers virtually identical, with Oct'11 numbers being slightly lower. Hence, I do not understand why CO was postulating large spillover then, and no spillover now. Data do not support this drastic change in stance. What is the Guru's take on this?

Let's hope that these numbers are more or less final and won't be revised upwards.

Really, I'm not sure if the 08 numbers are that bad. If you look at the I485 data, there's about 18.5k pending I485s for that year. Maybe another 4-5k have already been greened. That's 22.5k over 27.7k PERMs. Assuming a normal OR is 1 (TR = 1, DD = 0), this reflects demand destruction of (1 - 22.5/27.7) = ~20%. I think we were guessing 25% DD so we're not that far off.

I think the DD numbers are slightly higher for 2009 - closer to our 25% estimate.

At this point, China is only being held up by India and would have become current really soon if India didn't eat all the spillover. I'm not sure if Indians have been particularly rapacious with loopholes in filing fradulent/enevelope pushing labor certs, but we really get f**ked with this immigration system. Somehow I get the feeling that part of the blame lies with us for the Indian mentality of loving America and everybody and their mother wanting to come here. I'm not trying to be racist against my own people, but it's true that we love America more than others - I remember this Economist survey where after the Iraq and Afghan wars, Bush had a really high popularity rating in India even though his numbers had really dropped in other countries. I know India will send a larger number of immgrants than Luxembourg on account of the pop size, but China isn't flooding the system with a larger population so I wonder why India is so special...

[murali83]

Gurus,

One question. Does this pending inventory include both pre-adjudicated and non pre adjudicated cases or just the ones that are not pre adjudicated.

Thanks

Murali

[abcx13]

Gurus,

One question. Does this pending inventory include both pre-adjudicated and non pre adjudicated cases or just the ones that are not pre adjudicated.

Thanks

Murali

Pretty sure both.

[imdeng]

Update: The calculations below are wrong - I am using EB2IC PERM numbers and only EB2I 485s. Once I update the numbers, the OR for 2009 turns out to be 0.89 - and considering that this is the lower bound, we may have very little to no demand destruction in 2009. :-(

First attack at OR numbers using 2009 PERM and Inventory numbers for EB2I. Using monthly numbers, it does seem like a ratio of 0.71 for 2009 holds - all monthly values are close to that (range of 0.63 to 0.80).

Caveat - this is the lower bound. 2008 PD folks who have not applied yet will increase this number as they get into the queue. Still - we finally have some solid numbers to get a hold of the extent of demand destruction.


Mon I485 - PERM -- OR
Jan 1,301 2,073 0.63
Feb 1,260 1,771 0.71
Mar 1,384 1,801 0.77
Apr 1,207 1,846 0.65
May 1,042 1,457 0.72
Jun 1,069 1,468 0.73
Jul 0,984 1,290 0.76
Aug 0,801 1,247 0.64
Sep 1,058 1,492 0.71
Oct 1,143 1,502 0.76
Nov 0,993 1,360 0.73
Dec 1,187 1,482 0.80
Tot 13,429 18,789 0.71

[abcx13]

First attack at OR numbers using 2009 PERM and Inventory numbers for EB2I. Using monthly numbers, it does seem like a ratio of 0.71 for 2009 holds - all monthly values are close to that (range of 0.63 to 0.80).

Caveat - this is the lower bound. 2008 PD folks who have not applied yet will increase this number as they get into the queue. Still - we finally have some solid numbers to get a hold of the extent of demand destruction.


Mon I485 - PERM -- OR
Jan 1,301 2,073 0.63
Feb 1,260 1,771 0.71
Mar 1,384 1,801 0.77
Apr 1,207 1,846 0.65
May 1,042 1,457 0.72
Jun 1,069 1,468 0.73
Jul 0,984 1,290 0.76
Aug 0,801 1,247 0.64
Sep 1,058 1,492 0.71
Oct 1,143 1,502 0.76
Nov 0,993 1,360 0.73
Dec 1,187 1,482 0.80
Tot 13,429 18,789 0.71

I just realized it's actually worse than that because your PERM numbers are IC but the I485 numbers are I only. I made the same mistake earlier. So DD is nowhere close to 25%. Closer to 15%.

[Mavrick]

June 2012 Visa Bulletin:

Just now called 202 663 1541 : EB2 I&C - Unavailable.

[imdeng]

Overall I don't think the inventory numbers are too alarming. Only thing that stands out is the remaining overhang in 2007 of 4.9K - that is way above expectation. 2008 numbers are below expectations (less than 1.5K/month density we were expecting) and so are 2009 numbers (a couple months are less than 1K/month - that had not happened in a long while).

Based on this, we can reasonably expect FY2013 to take care of all 2007 and most of 2008 cases. FY2014 will then hit any leftover 2008, 2009 and 2010 till Apr - prompting a fresh intake in late FY2014.

EB2C will not be eating any spillover going forward since its regular-quota-movement will be more than enough to cover any potential spillover-fueled-movement of EB2I.

[vizcard]

Just taking a swing at 2008 density calculations here (IC). Something doesn't seem right. Gurus - please correct me here.
2008 demand = 9375 (approved pending visa)
2008 inventory = 18447 (still in pre-decision phases)
Already greened ~5000 (already approved)
Total 485s = 32822
per month = 32822/12 = 2735.


For India only Total 485s = 26686
per month = 2224

[abcx13]

Just taking a swing at 2008 density calculations here (IC). Something doesn't seem right. Gurus - please correct me here.
2008 demand = 9375
2008 inventory = 18447
Already greened ~5000
Total 485s = 32822
per month = 32822/12 = 2735.

Inventory includes demand so you are double counting. Subtract that out and density is 1953/month. I think imdeng's 1.5k/month is off because he was ignoring already greened numbers.

[murali83]

Overall I don't think the inventory numbers are too alarming. Only thing that stands out is the remaining overhang in 2007 of 4.9K - that is way above expectation. 2008 numbers are below expectations (less than 1.5K/month density we were expecting) and so are 2009 numbers (a couple months are less than 1K/month - that had not happened in a long while).

Based on this, we can reasonably expect FY2013 to take care of all 2007 and most of 2008 cases. FY2014 will then hit any leftover 2008, 2009 and 2010 till Apr - prompting a fresh intake in late FY2014.

EB2C will not be eating any spillover going forward since its regular-quota-movement will be more than enough to cover any potential spillover-fueled-movement of EB2I.

Imdeng,

Just a couple of things. We have always talked of density in eb2 i-c terms. In 2008 assuming 50% approval on jan to mar 15 and 11% for the rest of the year, they have approx 9.87 months of unapproved inventory. Eb2i-c Unapproved in 2008 is 18447. Divide that by 9.87 and you will get 1870 per month. Similarly 2009 will give you 1300 ( 16342/12 full months of unapproved apps).

[kd2008]

Just taking a swing at 2008 density calculations here (IC). Something doesn't seem right. Gurus - please correct me here.
2008 demand = 9375
2008 inventory = 18447
Already greened ~5000
Total 485s = 32822
per month = 32822/12 = 2735.

Inventory includes the demand. So the total is 18447 + 5000 = 23447
23447/12 = 1953 per month

[raj888]

Vizcard, I think inventory includes demand data, so you are double counting demand data here


Just taking a swing at 2008 density calculations here (IC). Something doesn't seem right. Gurus - please correct me here.
2008 demand = 9375 (approved pending visa)
2008 inventory = 18447 (still in pre-decision phases)
Already greened ~5000 (already approved)
Total 485s = 32822
per month = 32822/12 = 2735.

[bieber]

the demand destruction for 2008 is huge, looking at the inventory numbers 2009 is almost on par with 2008. I know we have seen reasonable amount of approvals from 2008 but it's not looking like 2007 at all. (The perm numbers for 2007 and 2008 are almost same, Veni where are you buddy? please shed some light)

[vizcard]

Vizcard, I think inventory includes demand data, so you are double counting demand data here


Inventory includes the demand. So the total is 18447 + 5000 = 23447
23447/12 = 1953 per month


Inventory includes demand so you are double counting. Subtract that out and density is 1953/month. I think imdeng's 1.5k/month is off because he was ignoring already greened numbers.

Well then that explains it. Still 2K/month is fairly significant.

PS: its stupid that they have the same number included in two metrics. They really need to think in terms of venn diagrams :)

[asankaran]

The inventory is really scary. I guess it would take years to clear. EB2 has become the new EB3!! Time for AC 21

[imdeng]

You are right. I re-did the numbers and the new OR is 0.89 for the year :-(

I just realized it's actually worse than that because your PERM numbers are IC but the I485 numbers are I only. I made the same mistake earlier. So DD is nowhere close to 25%. Closer to 15%.

[abcx13]

The inventory is really scary. I guess it would take years to clear. EB2 has become the new EB3!! Time for AC 21

Not sure why you say that, I think the wait is still on the order of 4-5 years. Correction though: EB2-I has become the new EB3. Everybody else is doing just fine...poor China will never become current because of India.

[murali83]

Gurus,

Is there any way to find out if a case has been pre-adjudicated and added to the demand?

Cheers

Murali

[kd2008]

On trackitt there are 2500 cases for EB2I since Oct VB according to Spec's data. So trackitt's load factor is still 5 to 6% and not higher as we thought it might be.

[PD2008AUG25]

In light of inventory data, CO's comments make no sense. How can he move dates back to 2010 when he will have 30k pre-adjudicated cases waiting for visa number by October.

[redsox2009]

EB1 march inventory made hit the panic button. EB1 data is kind of strange, when we see last year OCT 2011 data, for Aug 2011 the number is 588, in may 2012 for Aug 2011 it is 769. Not sure why the number increased after 6 months, when the number should had decreased.

This raises another question are these numbers are 100% or not?:confused:

[Pdmar08]

There is an xls file here updated May 3 2012,
what inventory is this. This is USCIS so is it all applicants(primary and dependents).
the demand data if i m not wrong has only primary numbers correct?
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD
Look at the tab for india.

[baba2s]

EB1 march inventory made hit the panic button. EB1 data is kind of strange, when we see last year OCT 2011 data, for Aug 2011 the number is 588, in may 2012 for Aug 2011 it is 769. Not sure why the number increased after 6 months, when the number should had decreased.

This raises another question are these numbers are 100% or not?:confused:

Those high numbers are because of slow processing of EB1 and Eb2-ROW.
A step took by CIS to get more spillover to EB2-I and C.. a way to reduce the backlog..

[Mavrick]

There is an xls file here updated May 3 2012,
what inventory is this. This is USCIS so is it all applicants(primary and dependents).
the demand data if i m not wrong has only primary numbers correct?
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD
Look at the tab for india.

Correct me if I'm wrong - How did all the gurus miss this document. This doc has all the numbers that we were looking for.

[kd2008]

Nobody missed the document, okay? It is dated May 3, 2012 and was published today! We have discussed it in the past few pages.

[bieber]

EB2IC inventory shows 1500 per month in 2008 and 1400 in 2009 which is way below 2500 (even 2000), I don't understand the concern by some members

[kd2008]

KNowing what I know now from the pending inventory of May 2012, I feel angry that CO did not make EB2IC current as he should have. People with pre-May 2010 PDs got a handsome bonus in getting their EAD/APs so quickly. Folks after that are going to rot for 3 to 4 yrs now.

[TeddyKoochu]

God Almighty!

EB2IC inventory is 39,577 + 8337 = 47,914!!!!

That is a HUGE number!

Teddy, you are not right in your estimate of 25K.

KD, I concede 25K estimate was way off. Now the 48K total even till May 2010 may include some ROW cases we are assuming that it’s purely EB2 I/C. Other than that this is really a huge roller coaster after the demand data. The number is literally quite huge.

[bieber]

It's more for 2008 because 5000 are already assumed to have received GCs. I think one of the disappointments is that the density did not really reduce in later months of 2008 as expected. It's around 1800-1900 per month for 2008, and much much lower for 2009 - that's agreed.

We were all fooled by CO's statement that the USCIS received *only 50%* of expected applications, which made some of us to conclude incorrectly that the density was far below 2500 per month even for 2008.

I STILL do not understand. Why did they move the dates into 2009 much less 2010? EB1 and EB2-ROW inventory does not show anything unusual expect the increased backlog for EB1 in March. After doing this in 2007, why do it again in 2012 especially now there is no EAD renewal revenue? My gut says something will happen. We should see some spillover this year.

is that 5000 number from some valid source or the estimation based on trackitt data? even after adding 5000 the 2008 inventory number is considerably lower than 2007 which has same number of perms

It looks like demand destruction is more in 1st half of 2008 comparted to Sept-Dec2007 and 2nd half of 2008

[TeddyKoochu]

Inventory includes the demand. So the total is 18447 + 5000 = 23447
23447/12 = 1953 per month

KD I believe 5K 2008 folks greened is a liberal to fair assumption. This way the 2008 density is 2K per month. OR of 1 assumed 2200 per month Ball Park. So this way OR is still higher than 0.9. The OR assumption of 0.8 by me was probably the highest that anyone had suggested but the actual OR is definitely closer to 0.9. It does point to some demand destruction but it’s hardly anything.

[Mavrick]

Nobody missed the document, okay? It is dated May 3, 2012 and was published today! We have discussed it in the past few pages.

OKAY, Chill Buddy.

[suninphx]

KD I believe 5K 2008 folks greened is a liberal to fair assumption. This way the 2008 density is 2K per month. OR of 1 assumed 2200 per month Ball Park. So this way OR is still higher than 0.9. The OR assumption of 0.8 by me was probably the highest that anyone had suggested but the actual OR is definitely closer to 0.9. It does point to some demand destruction but it’s hardly anything.

Actually OR is around 0.84 for PD2008 (assuming 5000 approvals). This also includes porting numbers. So if we take porting numbers out then OR is in range of what we were expecting.

[Kanmani]

Sportsfan, just see kd's view in common man's eyes. Mr.CO doesn't need to think or care about how much USCIS is short of funds. If Dos and uscis genuine intentions were not to get flooded , they must have stopped with 2008 numbers . Can't the USCIS look into the intake to see how many I-485 they received in 30 days and pass it to CO. They were bluffing/didn't care to see how many were actually received.

I agree with you kd, it is a wrong move indeed. unprofessional by all means !

[vizcard]

OKAY, Chill Buddy.


Correct me if I'm wrong - How did all the gurus miss this document. This doc has all the numbers that we were looking for.


Nobody missed the document, okay? It is dated May 3, 2012 and was published today! We have discussed it in the past few pages.

mavrick - It was wrong on your part to call out the gurus..especially since u didn't read previous posts. Kd just pointed that out.

[imdeng]

Well... I think with all the discussions, I still stand by my original assessment of the following:

1. FY2012 - Finish 2007 PDs in case some numbers are available towards the end
2. FY2013 - Finish any 2007 overhang and take care of *most* of 2008
3. FY2014 - Complete any remaining 2008 along with 2009 filers
4. FY2015 - New intake, start working on 2010 PDs

All in all, we are still holding up the 5 year rule. So while things are bad, the talks of EB2I turning into EB3I are a bit premature IMHO.

People who should be really pissed are EB2C folks - they are completely getting messed up by EB2I. They are averaging 200-300 per month density - which is clearly a "C" worthy density - but their backlog will not get cleared for years because of the super high EB2I density.

[Jonty Rhodes]

June Visa Bulletin is out.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5712.html

Here is a comment.

Despite the retrogression of the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to August 15, 2007, demand for numbers by applicants with priority dates earlier than that date remained excessive. Such demand is primarily based on cases which had originally been filed with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) for adjustment of status in the Employment Third preference category, and are now eligible to be upgraded to Employment Second preference status. The potential amount of such “upgrade” demand is not currently being reported, but it was evident that the continued availability of Employment Second preference numbers for countries other than China and India was being jeopardized. Therefore, it was necessary to make the China and India Employment Second preference category “Unavailable” in early April, and it will remain so for the remainder of FY-2012.

Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013.

USCIS has indicated that it will continue accepting China and India Employment Second preference I-485 filings during May, based on the originally announced May cut-off date.

E. EMPLOYMENT FIRST AND SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY

Item F of the May Visa Bulletin (number 44) provided projections regarding visa availability in the coming months. Information received from the USCIS after the publication of that item requires an update in the projections for the Employment First and Second preference categories.

Employment First: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date at the end of the fiscal year in an effort to limit number use within the annual numerical limit.

Employment Second: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date for this category for all countries other than China and India. Such action may be required at any time during the next few months.

Please be advised that the above are only estimates for what could happen during the next few months based on applicant demand patterns experienced in recent months.

[GhostWriter]

Thought i would try to summarize the calculations based on what everyone posted on last few pages and using Spec's terminology

----------------------------------------2008--------2009
Expected (TF=1,DD=0,OR=1)---------27,657------18,740

I-485 inventory - May 3, 2012--------18,447----- 16,342
GCs given out--------------------------5000-----------0
Total I485s filed----------------------23,447------16,342

Porting---------------------------------3000-------3000

OR (Total-Porting/Expected)--------------74%------71%
DD--------------------------------------26%-------29%

OR (Total/Expected)---------------------85%------ 87%

The situation overall looks quite bad. There are a total of 40,739 I485s for EB2-IC in the inventory for 2007, 2008 and 2009. Even with 30,000 SOFAD in 2013 chances of completing 2009 by Sep-2013 look bleak.

[suninphx]

Thought i would try to summarize the calculations based on what everyone posted on last few pages and using Spec's terminology

----------------------------------------2008--------2009
Expected (TF=1,DD=0,OR=1)---------27,657------18,740

I-485 inventory - May 3, 2012--------18,447----- 16,342
GCs given out--------------------------5000-----------0
Total I485s filed----------------------23,447------16,342

Porting---------------------------------3000-------3000

OR (Total-Porting/Expected)--------------74%------71%
DD--------------------------------------26%-------29%

OR (Total/Expected)---------------------85%------ 87%

The situation overall looks quite bad. There are a total of 40,739 I485s for EB2-IC in the inventory for 2007, 2008 and 2009. Even with 30,000 SOFAD in 2013 chances of crossing 2009 by Sep-2013 look bleak.

This is nice summary and puts lot of things in perspective. Thank you.

[ismile]

June Visa Bulletin is out.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5712.html

Here is a comment.

Despite the retrogression of the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to August 15, 2007, demand for numbers by applicants with priority dates earlier than that date remained excessive. Such demand is primarily based on cases which had originally been filed with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) for adjustment of status in the Employment Third preference category, and are now eligible to be upgraded to Employment Second preference status. The potential amount of such “upgrade” demand is not currently being reported, but it was evident that the continued availability of Employment Second preference numbers for countries other than China and India was being jeopardized. Therefore, it was necessary to make the China and India Employment Second preference category “Unavailable” in early April, and it will remain so for the remainder of FY-2012.

Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013.

USCIS has indicated that it will continue accepting China and India Employment Second preference I-485 filings during May, based on the originally announced May cut-off date.

E. EMPLOYMENT FIRST AND SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY

Item F of the May Visa Bulletin (number 44) provided projections regarding visa availability in the coming months. Information received from the USCIS after the publication of that item requires an update in the projections for the Employment First and Second preference categories.

Employment First: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date at the end of the fiscal year in an effort to limit number use within the annual numerical limit.

Employment Second: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date for this category for all countries other than China and India. Such action may be required at any time during the next few months.

Please be advised that the above are only estimates for what could happen during the next few months based on applicant demand patterns experienced in recent months.

pdf version : http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_June2012.pdf

Here EB2IC cutoff is 15APR07

[ismile]

pdf version : http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_June2012.pdf

Here EB2IC cutoff is 15APR07 - This is sept 2011 visa bulletin

[yank]

Visa bulletin:

So, with dates as 'U' are they trying to stop porting?

[yank]

Q & Big T,

Waiting for ur analysis on 485 and visa bulletin report please.

[abcx13]

Thought i would try to summarize the calculations based on what everyone posted on last few pages and using Spec's terminology

----------------------------------------2008--------2009
Expected (TF=1,DD=0,OR=1)---------27,657------18,740

I-485 inventory - May 3, 2012--------18,447----- 16,342
GCs given out--------------------------5000-----------0
Total I485s filed----------------------23,447------16,342

Porting---------------------------------3000-------3000

OR (Total-Porting/Expected)--------------74%------71%
DD--------------------------------------26%-------29%

OR (Total/Expected)---------------------85%------ 87%

The situation overall looks quite bad. There are a total of 40,739 I485s for EB2-IC in the inventory for 2007, 2008 and 2009. Even with 30,000 SOFAD in 2013 chances of completing 2009 by Sep-2013 look bleak.

And there'll probably be more porting as there is SFM in the dates. Add 3-5k for that.

[Mavrick]

June Visa Bulletin - "Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013. "

I think our predictions are aligned with what CO is predicting until next Spring 2013

[murali83]

June Visa Bulletin - "Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013. "

I think our predictions are aligned with what CO is predicting until next Spring 2013

I am not sure if anyone here predicted that dates will reach May 2010 in spring 2013. CO has made that statement simply because the demand data (not the inventory) shows around 16K pre-adjudicated cases which he feels will be cleared before spring 2013. But in the next few months, the number of pre-adjudicated cases will soar close to the pending inventory of 47K. Then around that time of the year, he will say in the visa bulletin, that dates will reach may 2010 sometime in 2014 or 2015.

[HR3012]

Visa bulletin:

So, with dates as 'U' are they trying to stop porting?

Good point, I don't think they are trying to stop, but "U" makes porting not possible I guess.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I am not sure if anyone here predicted that dates will reach May 2010 in spring 2013. CO has made that statement simply because the demand data (not the inventory) shows around 16K pre-adjudicated cases which he feels will be cleared before spring 2013. But in the next few months, the number of pre-adjudicated cases will soar close to the pending inventory of 47K. Then around that time of the year, he will say in the visa bulletin, that dates will reach may 2010 sometime in 2014 or 2015.

Murali, I am in total agreement.

This statement is nothing but a hogwash from CO and should not be taken seriously unless some real action happens on ground which I think is highly unlikely. I would be more than happy if I would be proven wrong.

[bieber]

The bulletin is taken down from the website, also the pdf version

[qesehmk]

Friends,
Regardless what the bulletin says - and i haven't seen it yet - the inventory actually is a great news. It shows EB2I demand at around 1200 per month and EB2C at 300 per month. I think at that rate, it is absolutely possible to clear 2008 in 2013. And after that my guess is 2009 and 2010 will be cleared by 2014. Just a rough feeling.

For the rest of the year - the dates certainly aren't moving beyond 2007 - if at all - for EB2IC.

I will update this data in the SSFT tool as well to reflect the "demand destruction". And yes - although I was right on my advice to Teddy on demand data, I also admit that demad destruction is real. 2009 data proves that beyond doubt.

[GhostWriter]

Q, i am missing the "good" part in the news. If you look at the inventory the ratio of overall I485s filed to expected I485s (based on PERM) for 2008 is 85% and for 2009 is 87%. See my post above. Either there is low demand destruction or even if we assume 20-25% DD it gets reduced by 12% or more porting. So overall for EB2-IC the inventory is only 15% lower than Spec's PERM numbers. Though i agree with you that 2008 can be cleared in 2013. But that is not a good news. Till few months back except for Spec almost everyone was expecting dates to reach Q1 or Q2 of 2008 by Sep-2012. Full credit goes to Spec in pointing out much ahead of time that EB2 will not reach 2008, EB2-IC can become unavailable and EB2-ROW can have a cut-off date. I guess the expectations now will become more realistic.


Friends,
Regardless what the bulletin says - and i haven't seen it yet - the inventory actually is a great news. It shows EB2I demand at around 1200 per month and EB2C at 300 per month. I think at that rate, it is absolutely possible to clear 2008 in 2013. And after that my guess is 2009 and 2010 will be cleared by 2014. Just a rough feeling.

For the rest of the year - the dates certainly aren't moving beyond 2007 - if at all - for EB2IC.

I will update this data in the SSFT tool as well to reflect the "demand destruction". And yes - although I was right on my advice to Teddy on demand data, I also admit that demad destruction is real. 2009 data proves that beyond doubt.

[shashinehal]

All,

I am getting to page not found on clicking on below link. And also the landing page it says June coming soon.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5712.html

Any good news on the way :)

[suninphx]

Q, i am missing the "good" part in the news. If you look at the inventory the ratio of overall I485s filed to expected I485s (based on PERM) for 2008 is 85% and for 2009 is 87%. See my post above. Either there is low demand destruction or even if we assume 20-25% DD it gets reduced by 12% or more porting. So overall for EB2-IC the inventory is only 15% lower than Spec's PERM numbers. Though i agree with you that 2008 can be cleared in 2013. But that is not a good news. Till few months back except for Spec almost everyone was expecting dates to reach Q1 or Q2 of 2008 by Sep-2012. Full credit goes to Spec in pointing out much ahead of time that EB2 will not reach 2008, EB2-IC can become unavailable and EB2-ROW can have a cut-off date. I guess the expectations now will become more realistic.

IMHO, 20-25% demand destruction is not bad at all. Without that we were looking at much higher inventory for EB2IC.

[redsox2009]

E. EMPLOYMENT FIRST AND SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY

" Item F of the May Visa Bulletin (number 44) provided projections regarding visa availability in the coming months. Information received from the USCIS after the publication of that item requires an update in the projections for the Employment First and Second preference categories.

Employment First: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date at the end of the fiscal year in an effort to limit number use within the annual numerical limit.

Employment Second: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date for this category for all countries other than China and India. Such action may be required at any time during the next few months."


I don't believe this prediction, is Travel dept is saying all 80K visas for EB1 and EB2 are completely exhausted and no more visas available for next 6 months and yet they are promising Eb2 IC with PD's March 2010 will get visas in 2013. There is something wrong with this prediction or with the numbers they are giving to us.

Inventory says that less than 20K visas are issued for EB1 Worldwide and we know that 15K to 20K issued for Indians/Chinese.

I wish I had my second grade math book to send it to Travel dept.

[vizcard]

I don't believe this prediction, is Travel dept is saying all 80K visas for EB1 and EB2 are completely exhausted and no more visas available for next 6 months and yet they are promising Eb2 IC with PD's March 2010 will get visas in 2013. There is something wrong with this prediction or with the numbers they are giving to us.

First of all, there is no "travel dept". Its the Department of State. Secondly, there was no promise made related to EB2IC with PDs up to March 2010 getting visas in 2013. CO said "best efforts will be made".

[qesehmk]

You are missing good part because it's really a great news!

And here is why - normal EB2IC rate is 2.5K per month. We were assuming (I in particular) 1600-2000. While the 2008 rate indeed turned out that much (if you add 5-8K already approved), the 2009 rate is 1.3K. That is 50% demand destruction. Now understand that this works in two ways - a) it reduces EB2IC competing for GCs. b) it also means less EB2ROW and less EB1 - albeit less NOT by 50%. But still.

Going back to prediction of Q1 2008 - if you consider the 5-8K approved for 2008, that is more that sufficient to decimate the entire EB2IC inventory for 2007. That would've brought the dates into Q1 2008. Little did we know that they would approve 2008 over 2007.

Hope this helps.

Q, i am missing the "good" part in the news. If you look at the inventory the ratio of overall I485s filed to expected I485s (based on PERM) for 2008 is 85% and for 2009 is 87%. See my post above. Either there is low demand destruction or even if we assume 20-25% DD it gets reduced by 12% or more porting. So overall for EB2-IC the inventory is only 15% lower than Spec's PERM numbers. Though i agree with you that 2008 can be cleared in 2013. But that is not a good news. Till few months back except for Spec almost everyone was expecting dates to reach Q1 or Q2 of 2008 by Sep-2012. Full credit goes to Spec in pointing out much ahead of time that EB2 will not reach 2008, EB2-IC can become unavailable and EB2-ROW can have a cut-off date. I guess the expectations now will become more realistic.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I don't believe this prediction, is Travel dept is saying all 80K visas for EB1 and EB2 are completely exhausted and no more visas available for next 6 months and yet they are promising Eb2 IC with PD's March 2010 will get visas in 2013. There is something wrong with this prediction or with the numbers they are giving to us.


I agree with vizcard. There is no guarantee that dates will be back to 1 May, 2010 after Spring 2013. Here is what the visa bulletin said,

Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013.

I think this statement is just a hogwash from CO. We all know that logically moving dates up to May 1, 2010 in FY2013 (forget Spring 2013) is not going to be possible unless they create huge artificial backlogs for other categories like EB1, EB2ROW by delaying processing, increasing PERM audits, issuing more RFEs. So I think we should not take this statement seriously because come Spring, 2013, CO will say,

"The demand is huge, visa numbers are not available and dates could not be moved up to May 1, 2010. Every efforts will be made to move the dates to previous cut-off date of May 1, 2010. It is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before Spring 2014. And come Spring 2014, this will be repeated and dates will not move before Spring 2015."

[GhostWriter]

Q, i disagree.
For 2008 inventory shows 18,447 for EB2-IC. Add 5000 already given GCs and you get 23,447 i.e. 1954 per month. Expected from PERM filings was 27,657
For 2009 inventory shows 16,342 for EB2-IC which is 1362 per month (as you say) BUT expected from PERM filings was 18,740. No one expected or assumed 2500 per month for 2009.

Where is 50% DD ??. In my opinion the inventory and the visa bulletin confirmed the grim expectations built over last few days and killed any hope for positive news in the short to medium term. EB2-ROW can have cut-off date, EB1 can have cut-off date implying a heavy stress on SOFAD for 2013 and on top of that a 485 inventory which is just 15% less than PERM filings (implying OR of 0.85-0.9) which will only get worse with more porting whenever EB2-I becomes available again. There are 41K I-485s for 2007, 2008 and 2009 which is a heavy inventory.

The only bright side is the confusing statement in the visa bulletin which still promises to bring the dates back to May-2010 as soon as possible and only gives a lower limit of spring 2013 as the estimate for as soon as possible.


You are missing good part because it's really a great news!

And here is why - normal EB2IC rate is 2.5K per month. We were assuming (I in particular) 1600-2000. While the 2008 rate indeed turned out that much (if you add 5-8K already approved), the 2009 rate is 1.3K. That is 50% demand destruction. Now understand that this works in two ways - a) it reduces EB2IC competing for GCs. b) it also means less EB2ROW and less EB1 - albeit less NOT by 50%. But still.

Going back to prediction of Q1 2008 - if you consider the 5-8K approved for 2008, that is more that sufficient to decimate the entire EB2IC inventory for 2007. That would've brought the dates into Q1 2008. Little did we know that they would approve 2008 over 2007.

Hope this helps.

[TeddyKoochu]

You are missing good part because it's really a great news!

And here is why - normal EB2IC rate is 2.5K per month. We were assuming (I in particular) 1600-2000. While the 2008 rate indeed turned out that much (if you add 5-8K already approved), the 2009 rate is 1.3K. That is 50% demand destruction. Now understand that this works in two ways - a) it reduces EB2IC competing for GCs. b) it also means less EB2ROW and less EB1 - albeit less NOT by 50%. But still.

Going back to prediction of Q1 2008 - if you consider the 5-8K approved for 2008, that is more that sufficient to decimate the entire EB2IC inventory for 2007. That would've brought the dates into Q1 2008. Little did we know that they would approve 2008 over 2007.

Hope this helps.


Friends,
Regardless what the bulletin says - and i haven't seen it yet - the inventory actually is a great news. It shows EB2I demand at around 1200 per month and EB2C at 300 per month. I think at that rate, it is absolutely possible to clear 2008 in 2013. And after that my guess is 2009 and 2010 will be cleared by 2014. Just a rough feeling.

For the rest of the year - the dates certainly aren't moving beyond 2007 - if at all - for EB2IC.

I will update this data in the SSFT tool as well to reflect the "demand destruction". And yes - although I was right on my advice to Teddy on demand data, I also admit that demad destruction is real. 2009 data proves that beyond doubt.

Q, I admit that my assessment based on the demand data was way off, 2009 and 2010 were definitely work in progress from the demand data perspective because of not being preadjudicated I had honestly did not expect the actual inventory to be double fully knowing that 2009 and 2010 were WIP.

Let me know your thoughts on the following.

- When the Jan inventory was released the 2008 filing in Dec was not reported correctly.

- Similarly 2009 and 2010 filing has happened in March and April. For the moment just consider 2009, many people would have filed later in March.

- It is therefore a possibility that even the 2009 inventory is not complete it is still Work in progress.

- Fundamentally the perm situation became really bad starting mid 2008, so people who are earlier in this group i.e. mid 2008 are more likely to have suffered more because they had a longer delay in their per cases then someone in Dec 2009.

- When the Jan inventory was released there was a great sense of urgency to work towards a accurate inventory, however by Apr and May the realization had dawned that inventory is already enough and resources may therefore have been allocated to other things like the approvals forEB2 ROW and EB1 cases.

- I believe we need 1 more inventory to see the real 2009 and 2010 inventory the numbers will likely increase.

I feel there is no reason why the demand destruction in 2009 should be that extreme it should pretty much like 2008.

Friends I know that if this is true it is bad news, please don't crucify me just thought about this possibility. Let me know your thoughts.

[qesehmk]

Ghost - I think grim or great depends on what your original view was. My view has always centered around 2500 secular demand. I thought of 2000 realistically and 1600 as most optimistic projection for 2008 onwards demand.

So 2008 lived up to realistic and 2009 has beat the optimistic projection. Which why I called it great news (considering the double benefit of the DD as explained earlier).

However I think we can agree one thing that the good/badness of the news depends on what you originally thought how much the demand was going to be.



Q, i disagree.
For 2008 inventory shows 18,447 for EB2-IC. Add 5000 already given GCs and you get 23,447 i.e. 1954 per month. Expected from PERM filings was 27,657
For 2009 inventory shows 16,342 for EB2-IC which is 1362 per month (as you say) BUT expected from PERM filings was 18,740. No one expected or assumed 2500 per month for 2009.

Where is 50% DD ??. In my opinion the inventory and the visa bulletin confirmed the grim expectations built over last few days and killed any hope for positive news in the short to medium term. EB2-ROW can have cut-off date, EB1 can have cut-off date implying a heavy stress on SOFAD for 2013 and on top of that a 485 inventory which is just 15% less than PERM filings (implying OR of 0.85-0.9) which will only get worse with more porting whenever EB2-I becomes available again. There are 41K I-485s for 2007, 2008 and 2009 which is a heavy inventory.

The only bright side is the confusing statement in the visa bulletin which still promises to bring the dates back to May-2010 as soon as possible and only gives a lower limit of spring 2013 as the estimate for as soon as possible.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q, i disagree.
For 2008 inventory shows 18,447 for EB2-IC. Add 5000 already given GCs and you get 23,447 i.e. 1954 per month. Expected from PERM filings was 27,657
For 2009 inventory shows 16,342 for EB2-IC which is 1362 per month (as you say) BUT expected from PERM filings was 18,740. No one expected or assumed 2500 per month for 2009.

Where is 50% DD ??. In my opinion the inventory and the visa bulletin confirmed the grim expectations built over last few days and killed any hope for positive news in the short to medium term. EB2-ROW can have cut-off date, EB1 can have cut-off date implying a heavy stress on SOFAD for 2013 and on top of that a 485 inventory which is just 15% less than PERM filings (implying OR of 0.85-0.9) which will only get worse with more porting whenever EB2-I becomes available again. There are 41K I-485s for 2007, 2008 and 2009 which is a heavy inventory.

The only bright side is the confusing statement in the visa bulletin which still promises to bring the dates back to May-2010 as soon as possible and only gives a lower limit of spring 2013 as the estimate for as soon as possible.

Q, I would stay away from 2009. Lets look at 2008 however I would tend to agree with Ghostwriter. The 5K figure for 2008 approvals suggested by KD is on the liberal side whereas 8K would probably be more conservative.

While having the entire demand destruction discussion with Suninphx we had agreed on a watered down version of 2500 as 2200 + 300 porting.

So now lets assume 2200 as our baseline. The OR comes to 0.84 if we assume 5K approvals however consider 8K approvals OR becomes 0.95 which is hardly any demand destruction. Based on the first half of 2007 OR has been 1 that is the baseline.

[narendarrao]

Mumbai consulate updated the priority dates.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

[suninphx]

Q, I would stay away from 2009. Lets look at 2008 however I would tend to agree with Ghostwriter. The 5K figure for 2008 approvals suggested by KD is on the liberal side whereas 8K would probably be more conservative.

While having the entire demand destruction discussion with Suninphx we had agreed on a watered down version of 2500 as 2200 + 300 porting.

So now lets assume 2200 as our baseline. The OR comes to 0.84 if we assume 5K approvals however consider 8K approvals OR becomes 0.95 which is hardly any demand destruction. Based on the first half of 2007 OR has been 1 that is the baseline.

T,

With assumed density of 2500/month our expectation was 30k for 2008 (including porting). If we assume 5k approvals then we have 23.k in inventory. So that's OR of .75 to .8. Isn't that what we were expecting. Am I missing something?

[qesehmk]

Q, I would stay away from 2009.
Not sure Teddy. I think 2009 numbers shouldnt move. I have some pointers to believe what I believe. But not worthwhile sharing at this time. So lets just say its a gut feel.

[abcx13]

Out of curiosity, how much SOFAD has EB2-IC received every year in the last 4-5 years? Anyone know?

[PD2008AUG25]

Out of curiosity, how much SOFAD has EB2-IC received every year in the last 4-5 years? Anyone know?

I am copying this info from some other website, I am not sure how accurate it is.

In FY2005 EB2-IC received 26k visas in total.

In FY2006 EB2-IC received 7k visas in total.

In FY2007 EB2-IC received 13k visas in total.

In FY2008 EB2-IC received 21.8k visas in total.

In FY2009 EB2-IC received 13.1k visas in total.

In FY2010 EB2-IC received 26.5k visas in total.

[EB2-03252009]

My priority date is March 2009, and I haven't applied AP/EAD/I-485 as I am not married yet. Do you guys think I made a mistake? and also will my date be current by Oct 2013? or how early will I be able to apply? Thanks!

[PD2008AUG25]

Does anyone think there could be some people with PD before May 2010 and haven't filed i-485? They won't show up in demand data or inventory. Any guesses on their numbers?

[imdeng]

Spec maintains the SOFAD details here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards

You can get this information for going back several years from the USCIS Annual Visa Reports - http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_1476.html (FY2011 data is not fully uploaded yet).

Out of curiosity, how much SOFAD has EB2-IC received every year in the last 4-5 years? Anyone know?

[imdeng]

There will be some - but considering the excitement, I doubt there will be very many. The new PWMBs. They might have a long wait ahead.


Does anyone think there could be some people with PD before May 2010 and haven't filed i-485? They won't show up in demand data or inventory. Any guesses on their numbers?

[imdeng]

Oct 2013 is a good estimate for Mar 2009 PD - surely by end of FY2014 you should be able to apply (like me). If you are in a steady job with no immediate pressure to change job and no H1B issues then I think you can afford to wait. If you had applied, you could have married before the GC issue and it would have worked fine.

My priority date is March 2009, and I haven't applied AP/EAD/I-485 as I am not married yet. Do you guys think I made a mistake? and also will my date be current by Oct 2013? or how early will I be able to apply? Thanks!

[vizcard]

Let me ask this question -
what are the implications of a COD for Eb1 and Eb2ROW (assuming it happens) to QSP for FY13?

I expect it will all be cleared in Q1. So that would indicate no QSP for Q1 and possibly Q2 as well to account for the regular demand. Extending the logic, this will also force EAD/AP renewals en masse which will further take time away from pre-adjudication of cases.

[Mavrick]

Friends,
Regardless what the bulletin says - and i haven't seen it yet - the inventory actually is a great news. It shows EB2I demand at around 1200 per month and EB2C at 300 per month. I think at that rate, it is absolutely possible to clear 2008 in 2013. And after that my guess is 2009 and 2010 will be cleared by 2014. Just a rough feeling.

For the rest of the year - the dates certainly aren't moving beyond 2007 - if at all - for EB2IC.



I will update this data in the SSFT tool as well to reflect the "demand destruction". And yes - although I was right on my advice to Teddy on demand data, I also admit that demad destruction is real. 2009 data proves that beyond doubt.

Q,

Why will only 2008 get cleared by 2013? As well know there are unknown number of GC's given to 2008 and second half of 2007 filers. Do you think 2007 & 2008 filers will consume all of 2008 numbers?

Also, what makes you think 2009 and 2010 will get cleared in 2014? I agree that there was DD for the year 2009 but I don't see any DD for 2010.

Please advice.

[GhostWriter]

Q. How do you know a lawyer is lying ?
A. His lips are moving :)

Same goes for real estate agents and politicians, just kidding :). We love and need them all.
He might not have been lying, a lot of people on this forum also had similar high expectations. Thanks to Spec for keeping to just the facts.


Some thoughts:

4. My lawyer clearly lied to me when he said that he expected 2009 PDs to get their GCs within one year. I think my company is about to force all of us EAD holders into EAD renewal (since it is free) rather than H1B renewal.

[openaccount]

Employment First: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date at the end of the fiscal year in an effort to limit number use within the annual numerical limit. --> 4-5k short?

Employment Second: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date for this category for all countries other than China and India. Such action may be required at any time during the next few months. -->5-6k short?

From CO's comments in VB it is clear that about 8-10k were given to to EB2IC this year which should have gone to EB1/EB2ROW. So next year it will be less 8-10k in SOFAD to EB2IC.

If similar trend continues with EB1/EB2ROW , EB2IC will get max of about 14-15K SOFAD including regular 5.6K.

With Porting happening at this pace which will add around 4-5k to inventory by the time CO starts SO next year which will reduce SOFAD to EB2IC to 10K.

Not to sound pessimistic just sharing thoughts based on latest developments and CO's comments about EB1/EB2ROW

[PD2008AUG25]

Q,

Why will only 2008 get cleared by 2013? As well know there are unknown number of GC's given to 2008 and second half of 2007 filers. Do you think 2007 & 2008 filers will consume all of 2008 numbers?

Please advice.

because to clear 2008 India China, 24k visas are needed. Next year's SOFAD are believed to be around 20-25k.

as some posters have noted, SOFAD could be lower if EB1 and EB2-ROW cut offs are established.

[murali83]

Some thoughts:

5. I don't know why CO continues to write in the VBs that he will do whatever it takes to return the PD to the high water mark by such and such time. Is he messing with our minds? Someone please send him a wake up call. Unless the USCIS is going to come up with extremely strict memos that will virtually stop all EB1C applications in near future, I do not see how this can be achieved. Are there any plans? Is the president going to try to kill EB1C to generate more votes from American workers? It is anyone's guess. I will like to believe CO and the situation is volatile, but I cannot get around the current numbers.



Sportsfan,

I had written this earlier and I still feel the same,

CO has made that statement simply because the demand data (not the inventory) shows around 16K pre-adjudicated cases which he feels will be cleared before spring 2013. For example, In the previous bulletin, his statement almost read as if he will bring back dates to May 2010 in Oct 2012 itself, simply becos the demand data at that time would have shown hardly anything. Now it shows 16K and hence he feels he can extract at least 16K visas for EB2I-C in 2013 and he will be able to put dates back at May 2010. But in the next few months, the number of pre-adjudicated cases will soar close to the pending inventory of 47K. Then around that time of the year, he will say in the visa bulletin, that dates will reach may 2010 sometime in 2014 or 2015.

One can always play devils advocate and say, doesn't CO know that cases are being pre-adjudicated and that more cases will show up. The reply would be, he does not care, he will just look at what the demand data says and pontificate based on that. In fact we should be happy that he is making the extra effort to put out some statements. As he had previously opined, by the summer of this year (so thats officially Sep 3 when summer ends) he will have a good idea about everything. And by that time pre-adjudications will be complete.

[vizcard]

Q,

Why will only 2008 get cleared by 2013? As well know there are unknown number of GC's given to 2008 and second half of 2007 filers. Do you think 2007 & 2008 filers will consume all of 2008 numbers?

Also, what makes you think 2009 and 2010 will get cleared in 2014? I agree that there was DD for the year 2009 but I don't see any DD for 2010.

Please advice.


because to clear 2008 India China, 24k visas are needed. Next year's SOFAD are believed to be around 20-25k.

as some posters have noted, SOFAD could be lower if EB1 and EB2-ROW cut offs are established.

The inventory data shows 24.5K IC cases for 2007 and 2008. If next year's SOFAD is between 20-25K (~15K across from EB2ROW + unknown from EB1/EB4/EB5), we will clear 2008 (given there will be some RFEs, rejects, etc.). Ofcourse the unknown is how many porters we will see along the way which will skew this math for the worse.

Also, 2009 shows about 16K right now. Assuming this only includes about 80% of the info, we should see atleast 20K 2009 applicants. I don't think we will hit 2010 until Q4 FY14 or Q1FY15.

[Pdmar08]

Any idea why they pulled the bulletin? Mumbai consulate site still shows EB2I as U.
I know the alternate link was going to Sep2011 document.
Just curious.

[cricfan]

Why does everyone think that the situation is bleak. I may be missing something very basic here. Can someone please point out the fallacy in my understanding :

I was going through the inventory report for EB2 All I-485 Pending. The total pending I-485's , for 2007,08,09,10 and 11, is only 6275+19142+17112+7017+2468 = 52014.

The total EB2 quota per year is around 40K. So, this demand should be cleared in around 1.5 yrs including EB2I 2009. So, they can start working on EB2I 2010 sometime in the beginning on 2014. Am I reading the inventory correctly ?

[murali83]

Why does everyone think that the situation is bleak. I may be missing something very basic here. Can someone please point out the fallacy in my understanding :

I was going through the inventory report for EB2 All I-485 Pending. The total pending I-485's , for 2007,08,09,10 and 11, is only 6275+19142+17112+7017+2468 = 52014.

The total EB2 quota per year is around 40K. So, this demand should be cleared in around 1.5 yrs including EB2I 2009. So, they can start working on EB2I 2010 sometime in the beginning on 2014. Am I reading the inventory correctly ?

Cricfan, check the excel sheet again it is for 2007,08,09,10, 11, 12 is only 6275+19142+17112+7368+7017+2468 = approx 60K.

The other issue is that, eb2 row will get a good chunk of the 40K since they are not oversubscribed. EB2-IC will get cleared only slowly.

[vizcard]

The other aspect is not all 2009 and obviously 2010 cases are in there.

what i don't get in the inventory data is there is 7400 cases pending for EB2ROW from 2010 & 2011. If they are current, why are there so many pending? And if they are pending, how many of these will get resolved?

[murali83]

The other aspect is not all 2009 and obviously 2010 cases are in there.

Vizcard,

Any reason why you say that. The inventory should have them, unless you mean that not everyone with pd's of 2009 and 2010 and have filed. But with this hyperactivity, I would say 90% of them would have filed, except those who want to wait until they get married. For assuming that guys with 2009 and 2010 pd's are likely to be at the right age now to marry, many might have held off.

[vizcard]

Vizcard,

Any reason why you say that. The inventory should have them, unless you mean that not everyone with pd's of 2009 and 2010 and have filed. But with this hyperactivity, I would say 90% of them would have filed, except those who want to wait until they get married. For assuming that guys with 2009 and 2010 pd's are likely to be at the right age now to marry, many might have held off.

Well my guess is that only about 80-85% of 2009 are filed. I don't have a basis for it.. just a gut feel. For 2010, obviously only those till May could have filed in the first place.

[pdfeb09]

Cricfan, check the excel sheet again it is for 2007,08,09,10, 11, 12 is only 6275+19142+17112+7368+7017+2468 = approx 60K.

The other issue is that, eb2 row will get a good chunk of the 40K since they are not oversubscribed. EB2-IC will get cleared only slowly.


The other aspect is not all 2009 and obviously 2010 cases are in there.

what i don't get in the inventory data is there is 7400 cases pending for EB2ROW from 2010 & 2011. If they are current, why are there so many pending? And if they are pending, how many of these will get resolved?

And as we progress through the rest of the FY 2012, there will be more EB2 -ROW applications coming in thereby stressing the demand even further, unless there is a cut off established for them.

Edit: That's probably what Murali83 meant by EB2 Row getting a good chunk.

[Pedro Gonzales]

I am a little disappointed with the inventory. DD certainly is lower than I'd anticipated. I had always estimated that I'd get my GC in May 2012, we are now past that. I don't have much to add here on the calculations, you've all got that covered. Let me instead, respond to an interesting post from abcx13.


At this point, China is only being held up by India and would have become current really soon if India didn't eat all the spillover.
Somehow, that thought brings a smile to my lips. In a small way, revenge for '61. :)


Somehow I get the feeling that part of the blame lies with us for the Indian mentality of loving America and everybody and their mother wanting to come here.
I disagree. That isn't specific to India. We simply have more of an opportunity to emigrate than folks from these other countries, our advantages being freedom, education and English language skills.


it's true that we love America more than others - I remember this Economist survey where after the Iraq and Afghan wars, Bush had a really high popularity rating in India even though his numbers had really dropped in other countries.
I supported Bush's war on Afghanistan too. That's because we were at the receiving end of Taliban's harboring of Islamic terrorists more than any other country. Our government didn't have the balls (or the means) to depose the Taliban, we were happy there was someone out there that was willing to do it for us. That was a very specific time. There is no organic pro-USA sentiment in India as there is in Australia, Israel or Ireland.


I know India will send a larger number of immgrants than Luxembourg on account of the pop size, but China isn't flooding the system with a larger population so I wonder why India is so special...

Of those reasons I mentioned earlier, freedom & English language skills. Also, a relative glut of internal opportunities (China Shining more so than India).

[PD2008AUG25]

Vizcard,

Any reason why you say that. The inventory should have them, unless you mean that not everyone with pd's of 2009 and 2010 and have filed. But with this hyperactivity, I would say 90% of them would have filed, except those who want to wait until they get married. For assuming that guys with 2009 and 2010 pd's are likely to be at the right age now to marry, many might have held off.

Inventory data is not always perfect.

As Teddy noted:



..

- I believe we need 1 more inventory to see the real 2009 and 2010 inventory the numbers will likely increase.



Other factors are porting, people who didn't file their I-485s, people, who will get married, their spouses will follow-to-join etc, etc. And possibly CP cases as well.

in Inventory FAQ

Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?

A: Although this pending inventory report is intended to provide information about demand for an immigrant visa and give potential employment-based immigrants an idea of where they stand in line for a visa, it does not include all potential employment-based immigrants. This report contains principal and dependent employment-based I-485s pending at USCIS Service Centers and Field Offices. It does not include cases pending consular processing at overseas posts. It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing. Please note, therefore, that there are likely many individuals with an earlier priority date than your own who do not currently appear on the inventory, either because they are awaiting consular processing or because they have not filed an I-485.

[veni001]

Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory - Updated 05/03/2012 (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) available now!

EB2I 2007 - 4,904
EB2I 2008 - 15,136
EB2I 2009 - 13,429

Total EB2I pending before 01/01/2010 = 34,665
Total EB2C pending before 01/01/2010 = 7,362

Total EB1 pending = 9,109
Total EB2ROW pending = 11,189

[srividya]

Based on current Inventory
1> Porting Estimation
Last Year may 2011 Report EB3 India --57,119
This Year May 2012 Report EB3 India --49,445
Reduction of 7,674 porting is around 5k maximum

2> EB2 India & China Inventory is 48K so it will take at least 2-3 years, FY 2012 quota is done.

Reasonable estimate: if we get average 15K spillover it takes 3 years FY13, FY14, FY15, after that still we have 10-15K pending on Oct 1st 2015 ( FY2016 Quota)

Due to porting cases. which may be similar to Oct 1st 2011 Scenario. In this case we expect again movement after 3.5 years[ After Oct 1st 2015].

Best Case Estimate: if we get average 25K spillover it takes 2 years FY13, FY14, after that still we have 10K pending on Oct 1st 2014 ( FY2015 Quota) Due to

porting cases. which may be similar to Oct 1st 2011 Scenario. In this case we expect again movement after 2.5 years[ After Oct 1st 2014].

Pessimistic Case: spill over of 10K due to no spill over from EB1, spill over is from EB2 ROW only
EB2I becomes similar to EB3 India.
48K with people missed will take 5 years
5 years porting cases at least 20K will be take another 2 years.
then we can see movement only after 7 years[ After Oct 1st 2019]. still we have 8k pending due to last 2 years spill over.

3>Demand destruction was mislead discussion for last 4-5 months
people who started GC process after 2008 are tough guys decided to pursue dreams in USA. so called OR factor should be 1.X, but 15% PERM cases are porting cases due to
this we may still see 1X of PERM data.
other reason for 1.X is 1x theory was based on pre Aug'2007 data, during that time frame EB2 cases are just above 50+% but now 70+% perm cases are EB2, so even if we

hit 1.4x it is normal[15% porting brings this to 1.2x] , as EB2 ratios is up by 40%


In earlier posts by diff experts of PERM analysis it was mentioned that post August 2007 to April 2010 PERM approval estimate was 68K cases.
48K Pending
15K Approved [ 2007 post august approvals 10K, 70% of post August 2007 15k cases, 2008 - 5K approvals, 20% of 2008 cases 27K]
5K-7k PWMB
--------
68K -70K IT IS DEMAND ACCELERATION

PERM DATA Comparision to Inventory

2007 post August PERM approvals 15K --> 10K Approved + 6K Inventory = 16k --- 1K may be from 2007 filings then also it is 1.X
2008 PERM approvals 27.7K --> 5K Approved + 18.5 Inventory + 3.5K PWMB = 27K --> close to 1
2009 PERM approvals 18.8K --> 16.4 Inventory + 3K PWMB = 19.4 --> 1.X
2010 PERM approvals 6K --> 6K Inventory + 1K PWMB = 7K ---> 1.X

when compared to PERM analysis it looks to me Inventory data is complete which can be used as base data for predictions.

4> for argument sake we assume USCIS move dates to raise money, but next they can do that with EB3 ROW in 2013, EB3 ROW is June 2006. by next year this time uscis is

close to clearing current EB3 ROW inventory. so Advancing EB2 I&C dates in 2013 will not happen.

looks to me
family based categories saw significant Advance movement in 2010
EB2 in 2011-2012
EB3 ROW - 2012-2013, certain to happen this
so above cycle repeats again from 2014????????????



this message is not to discurage hopefuls. If USCIS MOves PD's we all benefit but probability looks against us at this point of time.

[qesehmk]

Mavrick, going forward the unknown given to 2007,08 doesn't matter much

What matters is between the two there are 25K EB2IC. That is a reasonable SOFAD to look at in a given year. Now if SOFAD comes in at 30+K ... that means the dates should easily push into 2009 Q1 or Q2. So I wouldn't deny that might happen. It's just difficult to say with certainty what will happen 1 year from now.


Q,

Why will only 2008 get cleared by 2013? As well know there are unknown number of GC's given to 2008 and second half of 2007 filers. Do you think 2007 & 2008 filers will consume all of 2008 numbers?

Also, what makes you think 2009 and 2010 will get cleared in 2014? I agree that there was DD for the year 2009 but I don't see any DD for 2010.

Please advice.

[PD2008AUG25]

Based on current Inventory

Reasonable estimate: if we get average 15K spillover it takes 3 years FY13, FY14, FY15, after that still we have 10-15K pending on Oct 1st 2015 ( FY2016 Quota)

Due to porting cases. which may be similar to Oct 1st 2011 Scenario. In this case we expect again movement after 3.5 years[ After Oct 1st 2015].

Best Case Estimate: if we get average 25K spillover it takes 2 years FY13, FY14, after that still we have 10K pending on Oct 1st 2014 ( FY2015 Quota) Due to

porting cases. which may be similar to Oct 1st 2011 Scenario. In this case we expect again movement after 2.5 years[ After Oct 1st 2014].

Pessimistic Case: spill over of 10K due to no spill over from EB1, spill over is from EB2 ROW only
EB2I becomes similar to EB3 India.
48K with people missed will take 5 years
5 years porting cases at least 20K will be take another 2 years.
then we can see movement only after 7 years[ After Oct 1st 2019]. still we have 8k pending due to last 2 years spill over.

this message is not to discurage hopefuls. If USCIS MOves PD's we all benefit but probability looks against us at this point of time.

Thanks for speaking out unpalatable but realistic scenario.

SOFADs in last 5 years have been 7k, 13k, 21.8k, 13.1k and 26.k. So current estimates for 20k-25k are on higher end. And if you give credencee to noticeable pattern, high SOFAD and low and SOFAD years tend to alternate. Could it be because high SOFAD year will mean more EB1 and EB2-ROW cases in pipeline resulting in low SOFAD next year?

Last time CO didn't open flood gates until demand dropped to 1k. Actually he can't intake more i-485 when demand is significant because that would mean handing out visa to anyone who is pre-adjudicated. so he is unlikely to move dates beyond 1 may 2010 until most of the demand is exhausted.

[yesman]

How does one know (after submitting 485) if the application has been pre-adjudicated or not? Is there any status change involved or text messages/emails sent?

[natvyas]

PD date; 24 Mar 2008
Application recieved by USCIS 11th Jan
Service Center: Nebraska

I just called USCIS to open a service request since 4 months had passed from the time I filed the application. I was told that they are processing cases filed by 16th December 2011.

The information provided to me does not makes sense if the Inventory report and demand data are taken into account?

This leads me to make the following conclusions -

A) the numbers on the inventory report includes all applications and my application is in the inventory report numbers

B) my case has not made it into the demand data as yet.


Are these fair conclusions?

Cheers
Nat

[qesehmk]

They could be fair statements. jst not sure how one can arrive at them based on the info received.
PD date; 24 Mar 2008
Application recieved by USCIS 11th Jan
Service Center: Nebraska

I just called USCIS to open a service request since 4 months had passed from the time I filed the application. I was told that they are processing cases filed by 16th December 2011.

The information provided to me does not makes sense if the Inventory report and demand data are taken into account?

This leads me to make the following conclusions -

A) the numbers on the inventory report includes all applications and my application is in the inventory report numbers

B) my case has not made it into the demand data as yet.


Are these fair conclusions?

Cheers
Nat

[suninphx]

Based on current Inventory
1> Porting Estimation
Last Year may 2011 Report EB3 India --57,119
This Year May 2012 Report EB3 India --49,445
Reduction of 7,674 porting is around 5k maximum

2> EB2 India & China Inventory is 48K so it will take at least 2-3 years, FY 2012 quota is done.

Reasonable estimate: if we get average 15K spillover it takes 3 years FY13, FY14, FY15, after that still we have 10-15K pending on Oct 1st 2015 ( FY2016 Quota)

Due to porting cases. which may be similar to Oct 1st 2011 Scenario. In this case we expect again movement after 3.5 years[ After Oct 1st 2015].

Best Case Estimate: if we get average 25K spillover it takes 2 years FY13, FY14, after that still we have 10K pending on Oct 1st 2014 ( FY2015 Quota) Due to

porting cases. which may be similar to Oct 1st 2011 Scenario. In this case we expect again movement after 2.5 years[ After Oct 1st 2014].

Pessimistic Case: spill over of 10K due to no spill over from EB1, spill over is from EB2 ROW only
EB2I becomes similar to EB3 India.
48K with people missed will take 5 years
5 years porting cases at least 20K will be take another 2 years.
then we can see movement only after 7 years[ After Oct 1st 2019]. still we have 8k pending due to last 2 years spill over.

3>Demand destruction was mislead discussion for last 4-5 months
people who started GC process after 2008 are tough guys decided to pursue dreams in USA. so called OR factor should be 1.X, but 15% PERM cases are porting cases due to
this we may still see 1X of PERM data.
other reason for 1.X is 1x theory was based on pre Aug'2007 data, during that time frame EB2 cases are just above 50+% but now 70+% perm cases are EB2, so even if we

hit 1.4x it is normal[15% porting brings this to 1.2x] , as EB2 ratios is up by 40%


In earlier posts by diff experts of PERM analysis it was mentioned that post August 2007 to April 2010 PERM approval estimate was 68K cases.
48K Pending
15K Approved [ 2007 post august approvals 10K, 70% of post August 2007 15k cases, 2008 - 5K approvals, 20% of 2008 cases 27K]
5K-7k PWMB
--------
68K -70K IT IS DEMAND ACCELERATION

PERM DATA Comparision to Inventory

2007 post August PERM approvals 15K --> 10K Approved + 6K Inventory = 16k --- 1K may be from 2007 filings then also it is 1.X
2008 PERM approvals 27.7K --> 5K Approved + 18.5 Inventory + 3.5K PWMB = 27K --> close to 1
2009 PERM approvals 18.8K --> 16.4 Inventory + 3K PWMB = 19.4 --> 1.X
2010 PERM approvals 6K --> 6K Inventory + 1K PWMB = 7K ---> 1.X

when compared to PERM analysis it looks to me Inventory data is complete which can be used as base data for predictions.

4> for argument sake we assume USCIS move dates to raise money, but next they can do that with EB3 ROW in 2013, EB3 ROW is June 2006. by next year this time uscis is

close to clearing current EB3 ROW inventory. so Advancing EB2 I&C dates in 2013 will not happen.

looks to me
family based categories saw significant Advance movement in 2010
EB2 in 2011-2012
EB3 ROW - 2012-2013, certain to happen this
so above cycle repeats again from 2014????????????



this message is not to discurage hopefuls. If USCIS MOves PD's we all benefit but probability looks against us at this point of time.

First of all thank you for detailed post.
While I disagree on several points in your post let me focus on couple. First, I think you are double counting PWMB PERMs... Spec's table has covered all the PERMS across the years (as in 2007 PD approved in lets say 2008). So if you take care of that lot of your calculations might change.

Lets come to demand destruction point. Basically it was a theory to arrive at a resoable 'projection' of figures without any concrete/official data points. It was an attempt to quantify the qualifying events happening around that time (2008/09 slowdown). So lets see how we did based on this theory. Few days back I arrived at a figure of 35K demand till end of 2009 with OR of 0.75. So if you add porting numbers we are quite close to that figure. In fact if you apply OR of 0.8 (as T always proposed) we are nearly on the mark. So our theory did not do that bad at all. (Please note thant I am not considering 2010 numbers because things were reasonably stable after that). So IMHO theory was not misleading at all.

Fianlly lets do some rough calculations based on traditional way and calculate PD2008 demand.
So 27700*0.7(EB2%)*0.8(PERM/I140 approval rate)*2.1(dependent factor) ~ 32.5K + 3 K(porting) = 35.5 K. Now compare this with actual reported demand of 23.5K and judge yourself if OR factor is 'so called' or reasonable.

I am going to wait till next inventory is out and see what data it has. Because as Spec pointed out several days back in reply to one of my posts that May inventory numbers will not be stable.

[bvsamrat]

Very nice information

Can someone update this for last 10 years and/or from where the 140,000 quota/year started. It will give some idea about the distributions and allotment and who can change this 140,000/year quota? Is there any effort in the making?


I am copying this info from some other website, I am not sure how accurate it is.

In FY2005 EB2-IC received 26k visas in total.

In FY2006 EB2-IC received 7k visas in total.

In FY2007 EB2-IC received 13k visas in total.

In FY2008 EB2-IC received 21.8k visas in total.

In FY2009 EB2-IC received 13.1k visas in total.

In FY2010 EB2-IC received 26.5k visas in total.

[murali83]

PD date; 24 Mar 2008
Application recieved by USCIS 11th Jan
Service Center: Nebraska

I just called USCIS to open a service request since 4 months had passed from the time I filed the application. I was told that they are processing cases filed by 16th December 2011.

The information provided to me does not makes sense if the Inventory report and demand data are taken into account?

This leads me to make the following conclusions -

A) the numbers on the inventory report includes all applications and my application is in the inventory report numbers

B) my case has not made it into the demand data as yet.


Are these fair conclusions?

Cheers
Nat

Trackitt has a bunch of February filers who have received rfe's from nsc. Doesn't that contradict their statement?

[TeddyKoochu]

T,

With assumed density of 2500/month our expectation was 30k for 2008 (including porting). If we assume 5k approvals then we have 23.k in inventory. So that's OR of .75 to .8. Isn't that what we were expecting. Am I missing something?

Sun my understanding of porting is that until the final step of interfiling the case remains classified as EB3 and as soon as the interfiling process is completed it becomes EB2. So potentially we may never see porting cases as part of the inventory which is published every 3 months. So if we assume the baseline as 2200 which is the OR of 1 the actual OR for 2008 would be between .85 to as much as .95.

The assumption of only 5K approvals from 2008 is fairly liberal it is actually more. Here is why there have been ~ 15K approvals in feb - mar 2012. In 2007 here are still 6K cases left now if we assume 2007 cases approved as say 8K then the 2007 density goes above 2200, however let’s settle for this. This gives at minimum 7K 2008 approvals.
What are your thoughts about 2009 figures from the inventory, to me that is still WIP.

[redsox2009]

:confused:Looke like something is brewing @ state dept. I still could not belive how could they come up with those crazy predictions. State dept might be fixing the crazy visa bulletin and come up with correct predictions.

Perhaps I'm still in stuck in disbelief zone or not ready to accept the truth.:confused:

[bvsamrat]

If we expect 20-25K by October 2012-April 2013, then the inevtory would be reduced by April 2013 to about 15K then the dates may move atleast to one more year to have more inventory. Is this possible?



The data from the pre-PERM years are meaningless now because most categories used to be current and because of the hugh backlog and delays during the I-140 stage, visas were routinely wasted.

Data from FY 2008 are valid because only then, things had stabilized post 2007 event.

In FY 2011, EB2-IC received around 36K visas I believe, which is the maximum extent of the spillover. This years estimates range between 20 and 25K.

[suninphx]

Sun my understanding of porting is that until the final step of interfiling the case remains classified as EB3 and as soon as the interfiling process is completed it becomes EB2. So potentially we may never see porting cases as part of the inventory which is published every 3 months. So if we assume the baseline as 2200 which is the OR of 1 the actual OR for 2008 would be between .85 to as much as .95.

The assumption of only 5K approvals from 2008 is fairly liberal it is actually more. Here is why there have been ~ 15K approvals in feb - mar 2012. In 2007 here are still 6K cases left now if we assume 2007 cases approved as say 8K then the 2007 density goes above 2200, however let’s settle for this. This gives at minimum 7K 2008 approvals.
What are your thoughts about 2009 figures from the inventory, to me that is still WIP.

We have to some way accout for the porting number otherwise OR is going to be always incorrect. For me the whole inventory is WIP for two reasons..a)for cases still being processed b) USCIS not be removing approved cases (as reported by Kanmani). Lets hope that we get near real numbers in next inveroty as things will be 'U' for a while.

[murali83]

If we expect 20-25K by October 2012-April 2013, then the inevtory would be reduced by April 2013 to about 15K then the dates may move atleast to one more year to have more inventory. Is this possible?

If we get a mid point of what you say 22.5K, we have 47.5 K now. So we will have 25K left. That is more than enuf for one more FY. So my guess is they wont move dates. beyond May 2010 until end of FY 2014.

[bvsamrat]

Okay. Then it all might depend on how many are in adjudicated by October 2012. If this number is lower, then the PD may progress again.


If we get a mid point of what you say 22.5K, we have 47.5 K now. So we will have 25K left. That is more than enuf for one more FY. So my guess is they wont move dates. beyond May 2010 until end of FY 2014.

[vizcard]

If we expect 20-25K by October 2012-April 2013, then the inevtory would be reduced by April 2013 to about 15K then the dates may move atleast to one more year to have more inventory. Is this possible?


If we get a mid point of what you say 22.5K, we have 47.5 K now. So we will have 25K left. That is more than enuf for one more FY. So my guess is they wont move dates. beyond May 2010 until end of FY 2014.


Okay. Then it all might depend on how many are in adjudicated by October 2012. If this number is lower, then the PD may progress again.

i think 22K SOFAD is aggressive at this time. Especially if there is a COD for EB1 and EB2ROW.

[murali83]

Okay. Then it all might depend on how many are in adjudicated by October 2012. If this number is lower, then the PD may progress again.

You can pretty sure that USCIS will pre-adjudicate at least 80% of the inventory by Oct 2012. People who filed in feb 2012 are already getting rfe's. They seem to be doing fine in terms of processing speed.

[bvsamrat]

140,000 quota. Since when this had been in place and what efforts needed for this to be amended?

[Jonty Rhodes]

June Visa Bulletin is back again on State Department's Website.

Don't know why they took it down and what did they change really because the content is similar to the previous version released few days ago.

[TeddyKoochu]

We have to some way accout for the porting number otherwise OR is going to be always incorrect. For me the whole inventory is WIP for two reasons..a)for cases still being processed b) USCIS not be removing approved cases (as reported by Kanmani). Lets hope that we get near real numbers in next inveroty as things will be 'U' for a while.

Sun you made a very significant point the next inventory should truly be the best snapshot either to remove the dead wood (Approved cases) or to document any additional cases (2009 and 2010).

The OR according to Spec's definition is purely a ratio of perm to 485 for the specific duration. Porting for that rest from EB3 to EB2 could happen for a range of people right from 2002 to say 2007 or 2010 wherever the dates are so porting should be handled separately. Since previous calculations wee able to narrow it to ~ 3K per annum I had suggested that we approximate it to 300 PM and make our model as 2.5K per month with the 300 porting coming from the full range. For OR purposes we should however just consider 2200. Noteworthy point is Spec had given a calculation few days back which showed porting as 6K.

[Mavrick]

I want to go into hibernation and worry about EB2 dates back in June 2013. I seriously hope that the political climate changes soon and senate takes up HR 3012 - I know it is wishful thinking but can't resist :)

[vizcard]

140,000 quota. Since when this had been in place and what efforts needed for this to be amended?

If I were you, I'd focus the efforts on HR3012.

[suninphx]

Sun you made a very significant point the next inventory should truly be the best snapshot either to remove the dead wood (Approved cases) or to document any additional cases (2009 and 2010).

The OR according to Spec's definition is purely a ratio of perm to 485 for the specific duration. Porting for that rest from EB3 to EB2 could happen for a range of people right from 2002 to say 2007 or 2010 wherever the dates are so porting should be handled separately. Since previous calculations wee able to narrow it to ~ 3K per annum I had suggested that we approximate it to 300 PM and make our model as 2.5K per month with the 300 porting coming from the full range. For OR purposes we should however just consider 2200. Noteworthy point is Spec had given a calculation few days back which showed porting as 6K.

True that porting date can be anything. But still needs to be accounted for. And yes, Spec correctly pointed out about 6K porting (which is same as your orginal estimate). As we have moving numbers OR does not make sense for now. So lets discuss it when we have stable numbers. One thing seems for sure that OR will be >=1 for coming years(specially for years post 2009) ..assuming economy stays way it is. (plus higher porting)

[murali83]

Guys,

Overall if we assume that, 2008 pd's have been given 6K visas (thats the centrist numbers between the 5K and the 7K). If we look at the inventory, it has 6K pending cases before 2008. If the 2008 pd's were not issued visas, then dates would have reached 01-Jan-2008 approx. Isn't this what the gurus on this forum always predicted. So imho, the inventory data shows nothing alarming, nor is the porting at unexpected levels. In fact i believe that the numbers in the above lines support what Q, Spec, Teddy and others have always predicted, that FY 2012 will end around 1st week of Jan or last week of Dec 2007. I guess we are just carried away by sweeping events and sweeping statements from Mr. CO.

As far as the inventory data is concerned, I had posted a slightly different type of calculation some time back. If we go along same lines again,

I am not discounting the 5% for tough cases here, because inventory will have everyone.

From April 15-Oct 30, 2007 (from trackitt and other sources, 65% of the filers have been approved, 35% remain in the system).
From Nov 1 - Dec 31, 2007 (50% of filers have been approved, 50% remain in the system)
From Jan 1 - March 15, 2008 (50% of filers have been approved, 50% remain in the system)
From March 16, 2008 - June 30, 2008 (12% of filers have been approved, 88% remain in the system)
From July 1, 2008 - Dec 30, 2008 (9% of filers have been approved, 91% remain in the system)
From Jan 1, 2009 - Dec 30, 2009 (0% of filers have been approved, 100% remain in the system)
From Jan 1, 2010 - Apr 30, 2010 (0% of filers have been approved, 100% remain in the system)

Now if we take 2007 to be the base year, lets say X applications per month. Based on trackitt, I would say 2008 is 0.84X applications per month. 2009 is 0.55X per month. 2010 is 0.6X.

In fact I used this 0.55X for 2009 from trackitt just based total registered trackitt users by year. Now if you look at the inventory released and add 6K to the 2008 inventory (already approved 6K cases), it comes to approx 15.1 (india) + 3.3 (China) + the 6K = 23.4. Lets say 0.84X=23.4K, it gives 0.55X = approx 15.3K and the inventory has approx 16K for EB2I-C for the year 2009. So trackitt seems to be doing ok in terms of ratios.

So now going back to pending inventory, we have

35% of 6.5 months of 2007 (X) + 50% of 2 months of 2007 (X) + 50% of 2.5 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 88% of 3.5 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 91% of 6 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 100% of 2009 (0.55X) + 100% of 4 months of 2010 ( 0.6X)

= approx 20.5 months of inventory on a 2007 scale density. The inventory for EB2I-C from April 2007 to April 2010 is 46431 (I omitted the inventory prior to that)

This means 20.5 months of 2007 = 46431, which means 2007 density is 2265 and everything else falls in place.

When I used this above logic and predicted some numbers using a 1800 density Spec and others pointed out that 1800 is a little low and now they are vindicated, 2265 seems about right and no better proof than the inventory data.

Now the effective density may be 2265*0.95 since 5% cases may have issues. so 2150 is effective 2007 density and 2150*0.83 = 1785 is the 2008 effective density.

Now similarly, 65% of 2007 from April 15 to Oct 30, 2007 (X) + 50% (2 months of X) + 50% of (2.5 months of 0.83X) + 12% of (3.5 months of 0.83X) + 9% of (6 months of 0.83X) + the 8K pending inventory have been cleared.

That is 7.05 months at 2007 density + 8K approved so far. = 7.05*2265+8000 = 23968 visas. I believe that so far USCIS has issued 23968 visas to EB2I-C this year and that falls pretty much in the middle of the 20-25K range of Sofad predicted by this forum long back.

Cheers and have a great weekend.

[ksur23]

Murali,

That sounds great. Extending your analysis how many EB2 I-Cs are without visas in 2007 and 2008? And going by the density calculated and SOFAD expected when (which months in FY2013 or 14) do you see the end of 2008 and end of 2009?

Appreciate the analysis work!

[vizcard]

Murali - very logical calculation. I will point out though that 2008 density is approx 2100 for EB2IC based on inventory data. I'm posting from my iPad right now so I don't have the excel file handy but IIRC, India was just shy of 2000 itself.

[abcx13]

Guys,

Overall if we assume that, 2008 pd's have been given 6K visas (thats the centrist numbers between the 5K and the 7K). If we look at the inventory, it has 6K pending cases before 2008. If the 2008 pd's were not issued visas, then dates would have reached 01-Jan-2008 approx. Isn't this what the gurus on this forum always predicted. So imho, the inventory data shows nothing alarming, nor is the porting at unexpected levels. In fact i believe that the numbers in the above lines support what Q, Spec, Teddy and others have always predicted, that FY 2012 will end around 1st week of Jan or last week of Dec 2007. I guess we are just carried away by sweeping events and sweeping statements from Mr. CO.

As far as the inventory data is concerned, I had posted a slightly different type of calculation some time back. If we go along same lines again,

I am not discounting the 5% for tough cases here, because inventory will have everyone.

From April 15-Oct 30, 2007 (from trackitt and other sources, 65% of the filers have been approved, 35% remain in the system).
From Nov 1 - Dec 31, 2007 (50% of filers have been approved, 50% remain in the system)
From Jan 1 - March 15, 2008 (50% of filers have been approved, 50% remain in the system)
From March 16, 2008 - June 30, 2008 (12% of filers have been approved, 88% remain in the system)
From July 1, 2008 - Dec 30, 2008 (9% of filers have been approved, 91% remain in the system)
From Jan 1, 2009 - Dec 30, 2009 (0% of filers have been approved, 100% remain in the system)
From Jan 1, 2010 - Apr 30, 2010 (0% of filers have been approved, 100% remain in the system)

Now if we take 2007 to be the base year, lets say X applications per month. Based on trackitt, I would say 2008 is 0.84X applications per month. 2009 is 0.55X per month. 2010 is 0.6X.

In fact I used this 0.55X for 2009 from trackitt just based total registered trackitt users by year. Now if you look at the inventory released and add 6K to the 2008 inventory (already approved 6K cases), it comes to approx 15.1 (india) + 3.3 (China) + the 6K = 23.4. Lets say 0.84X=23.4K, it gives 0.55X = approx 15.3K and the inventory has approx 16K for EB2I-C for the year 2009. So trackitt seems to be doing ok in terms of ratios.

So now going back to pending inventory, we have

35% of 6.5 months of 2007 (X) + 50% of 2 months of 2007 (X) + 50% of 2.5 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 88% of 3.5 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 91% of 6 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 100% of 2009 (0.55X) + 100% of 4 months of 2010 ( 0.6X)

= approx 20.5 months of inventory on a 2007 scale density. The inventory for EB2I-C from April 2007 to April 2010 is 46431 (I omitted the inventory prior to that)

This means 20.5 months of 2007 = 46431, which means 2007 density is 2265 and everything else falls in place.

When I used this above logic and predicted some numbers using a 1800 density Spec and others pointed out that 1800 is a little low and now they are vindicated, 2265 seems about right and no better proof than the inventory data.

Now the effective density may be 2265*0.95 since 5% cases may have issues. so 2150 is effective 2007 density and 2150*0.83 = 1785 is the 2008 effective density.

Now similarly, 65% of 2007 from April 15 to Oct 30, 2007 (X) + 50% (2 months of X) + 50% of (2.5 months of 0.83X) + 12% of (3.5 months of 0.83X) + 9% of (6 months of 0.83X) + the 8K pending inventory have been cleared.

That is 7.05 months at 2007 density + 8K approved so far. = 7.05*2265+8000 = 23968 visas. I believe that so far USCIS has issued 23968 visas to EB2I-C this year and that falls pretty much in the middle of the 20-25K range of Sofad predicted by this forum long back.

Cheers and have a great weekend.

Just to clarify, when people here say SOFAD was 20k or something, they really mean that total no. of visas issued to EB2-IC were 20k right? Because SOFAD would actually be 20k-5.6k (quota for IC) = 14.4k, right?

[murali83]

Just to clarify, when people here say SOFAD was 20k or something, they really mean that total no. of visas issued to EB2-IC were 20k right? Because SOFAD would actually be 20k-5.6k (quota for IC) = 14.4k, right?

abcx,

I think you are right. Here when we mean sofad we are talking of the default 5.6+whatever we get from others.

[murali83]

Murali - very logical calculation. I will point out though that 2008 density is approx 2100 for EB2IC based on inventory data. I'm posting from my iPad right now so I don't have the excel file handy but IIRC, India was just shy of 2000 itself.

Vizcard,

Here is my reasoning. Though 6K visas could have been issued to 2008 folks, I still believe that the number is only 5K, not more than that. Except for the trackiit approx ratio factor, I have really not used 5 or 6K in my calculation.

So if you assume 5K visas have been given to 2008 folks, the inventory has 15136 for India and 3311 for China. So 2008 becomes 23447. That is 1953 per month. But when I had referred to effective density, I had derived it after a 5% deduction factor for difficult cases, so 1953 becomes 1856, which is really not very far from the 1785 I had calculated in my prior post.

Feel free to tear this logic apart.

Cheers

[vizcard]

It makes sense except for a couple of things. These are not "mistakes" but a matter of opinion.
1. The difficult cases are not necessarily rejects. So if you assume that they will be addressed at some later point, the 5% of 2008 would roll in to 2009 and 5% of2007 would roll in to 2008. I do think you can calculate the % of rejects based on data. I know Spec has it somewhere. I just can't find it.
2. Also you describe a term "effective density" which really is different from the basic density. I can't disagree with the definition of effective density and would have to include a factor in there.

[murali83]

It makes sense except for a couple of things. These are not "mistakes" but a matter of opinion.
1. The difficult cases are not necessarily rejects. So if you assume that they will be addressed at some later point, the 5% of 2008 would roll in to 2009 and 5% of2007 would roll in to 2008. I do think you can calculate the % of rejects based on data. I know Spec has it somewhere. I just can't find it.
2. Also you describe a term "effective density" which really is different from the basic density. I can't disagree with the definition of effective density and would have to include a factor in there.

Vizcard

Same here, I am unable to find the stats for that. But even assuming something low of 2.5% rejection rate, I really doubt if 2008 has a effective density higher than 1900. It is probably 2000 in the 1st six months and 1800 afterwards.

I guess we may have some minor variations in our numbers, but overall we are pretty much in agreement. So here is my summary

FY 2012: EB2I-C got approx 24000 visas (includes 5.6K default + Excess from other categories).

Prior to 2008 we have 6K pending cases.
1-Jan-2008 to 30-Jun-2008, we have 6 months worth cases @ 2000 per month minus the 3.5K (of the 5k in 2008 who have been approved) = 8.5
1-July-2008 to 31-Dec-2008, we have 6 months worth cases @ 1800 per month (minus 1.5k visas given to 2nd half of 2008)= 9.3k visas.

So to clear entire 2008 in FY2013, we need 23.8K visas (from inventory data it is 24.3k, accounting for 2.5% rejection rate, it is approx 23.8k) which is almost the visas that were provided in FY 2012. Considering the fact that EB2-Row might have a cut-off date, leading to accumulation of cases going forward in 2013, I really doubt if we can get the same sofad next year, unless eb1 yields some more next year (which is possible since they dont have such a big backlog going into 2013 like they had in 2012). But conservatively I guess sofad for 2013 will be in around 18-20K. They will lead Fy2013 to clear cases until Sep 30, 2008.

In fact, on a personal note, I am not even sure about this because 2012 was not even supposed to yield 24K visas. I guess they crossed red lines. I am not sure how we can ever find out. So I dont even have full belief about my projections for 2013, that is based on 18-20K sofad. It might even be lesser.

feel free to boost eb2=ic's morale if my calcs are way too pessimistic :)

[dec2007]

Friends, i got RFE on may 4th. Attorney is replying back. My amended 140 was approved in april.

Since i got the rfe, they r workng on my case. Does it mean i was assigned visa number and once we respnd rfe, i will get gc?

Pls see my details in signature. Thanks for a response.

[gcprp2]

Based on latest I485 Inventory (and also based few past I485 inventory) It looks like China has very very low demand compared to India for EB2 GCs, however still both countries has same cut of dates.??
If we see DHS(Department of homeland security) year book then, India is getting double employment based GCs compared to China, then why I-485 inventory of china is very low compared to India. As per below number China's inventory should be 50% compared to India but that's not the case. Inventory and actual GCs which are issued has huge difference for China, how much inventory is correct? Following are the number of GCs issues to India and China in last 10 year, which includes all priority (i.e EB1,EB2, EB3, EB4 and EB5). Does anyone has such number by priority for India? I took this number from DHS year book

Region and country of birth / Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total
Employment based preferences - India 39,010 42,885 20,560 38,443 47,705 17,169 28,703 25,577 20,264 31,118 311,434
Employment based preferences - China, People’s Republic 22,361 20,713 7,511 15,583 20,626 9,484 13,886 15,329 11,295 17,949 154,737

[evoori]

Based on latest I485 Inventory (and also based few past I485 inventory) It looks like China has very very low demand compared to India for EB2 GCs, however still both countries has same cut of dates.??
If we see DHS(Department of homeland security) year book then, India is getting double employment based GCs compared to China, then why I-485 inventory of china is very low compared to India. As per below number China's inventory should be 50% compared to India but that's not the case. Inventory and actual GCs which are issued has huge difference for China, how much inventory is correct? Following are the number of GCs issues to India and China in last 10 year, which includes all priority (i.e EB1,EB2, EB3, EB4 and EB5). Does anyone has such number by priority for India? I took this number from DHS year book

Region and country of birth / Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total
Employment based preferences - India 39,010 42,885 20,560 38,443 47,705 17,169 28,703 25,577 20,264 31,118 311,434
Employment based preferences - China, People’s Republic 22,361 20,713 7,511 15,583 20,626 9,484 13,886 15,329 11,295 17,949 154,737

I have similar question, the total pending EB3-C is 2400. Does it mean it will be current (or cross July 2007 mark) in next 1 year ?

[qesehmk]

I would think so Dec2007. Hope for the best :)
Friends, i got RFE on may 4th. Attorney is replying back. My amended 140 was approved in april.

Since i got the rfe, they r workng on my case. Does it mean i was assigned visa number and once we respnd rfe, i will get gc?

Pls see my details in signature. Thanks for a response.


Based on latest I485 Inventory (and also based few past I485 inventory) It looks like China has very very low demand compared to India for EB2 GCs, however still both countries has same cut of dates.??
If we see DHS(Department of homeland security) year book then, India is getting double employment based GCs compared to China, then why I-485 inventory of china is very low compared to India. As per below number China's inventory should be 50% compared to India but that's not the case. Inventory and actual GCs which are issued has huge difference for China, how much inventory is correct? Following are the number of GCs issues to India and China in last 10 year, which includes all priority (i.e EB1,EB2, EB3, EB4 and EB5). Does anyone has such number by priority for India? I took this number from DHS year book

Region and country of birth / Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total
Employment based preferences - India 39,010 42,885 20,560 38,443 47,705 17,169 28,703 25,577 20,264 31,118 311,434
Employment based preferences - China, People’s Republic 22,361 20,713 7,511 15,583 20,626 9,484 13,886 15,329 11,295 17,949 154,737


I have similar question, the total pending EB3-C is 2400. Does it mean it will be current (or cross July 2007 mark) in next 1 year ?

evoori and gcgrp - EB2C indeed has real low demand. However unfortunately they are still at that threshold where they will continue to have cutoff date. But if their demand drops below 2800 per year, they will become part of ROWEB2. I hope it does sometime soon. Otherwise EB2C's fate is tied to EB2I unfortunately.

[vizcard]

We COULD see Eb2C become current some time in FY2014. Based on the current inventory, I could see a scenario where come Oct 2012, their COD moves to August 2008 since their cumulative demand for that period (less some RFEs, etc.) is less than their annual allocation. But at that point, it will be at a standstill until the next fiscal year since all SO will come EB2I based on rules.

I do believe that EB2C will stick to the same COD as EB2I just for optics. That way they also will have SFM rather than big movement and then stand still which just looks bad.

[tatikonda]

Spectator, we are missing you and your analysis on demand data.

[tatikonda]

Gurus,

Any hopes on HR 3012 becoming LAW.
Share your thoughts ...

[ton_vj]

Cross Posting from Immi Voice:
http://****************.org/forum/3400391-post863.html

something should be happen in this month before 28 don't worry. hope +vely


Upcoming Senate Immigration- and Refugee-Related Legislative Floor Actions


By Micheal E. Hill

The following immigration- or refugee-related floor actions could occur in the coming weeks:
Full Senate Could Take Up Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Bill Containing Immigration Provisions: The full Senate could at any time take up S. 1301, the "Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2011". The measure contains a number of provisions relating to alien trafficking victims.
The Senate Committee on the Judiciary approved its version of S. 1301 on October 13, 2011. It was formally reported to the full Senate on November 17, 2011.

At the time of this writing, no date for full Senate consideration of the measure had yet been set.

Full Senate Could Take Up Bill Revising Annual Per-Country Limits for Employment- and Family-Based Immigrant Visas: The full Senate could at any time take up H.R. 3012, the "Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2011. As passed by the House of Representatives, the measure would eliminate the annual per-country limitations for employment-based immigrants, and it would increase the annual per-country limitations for family-based immigant visas from 7.5 percent of the total number of available visas to 15 percent of the total number of available visas. The House of Representatives passed H.R. 3012 on November 26, 2011, by a vote of 389-15.

At the time of this writing, no date for either full Senate or Senate Judiciary Committee consideration of the measure had yet been set.

[bvsamrat]

Can some one inform what will happen wth HR 3012 or point to a forum link?
Will this increase the annual quota from 140,000 or increase allocation to EB2?


Cross Posting from Immi Voice:
http://****************.org/forum/3400391-post863.html

something should be happen in this month before 28 don't worry. hope +vely


Upcoming Senate Immigration- and Refugee-Related Legislative Floor Actions


By Micheal E. Hill

The following immigration- or refugee-related floor actions could occur in the coming weeks:
Full Senate Could Take Up Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Bill Containing Immigration Provisions: The full Senate could at any time take up S. 1301, the "Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2011". The measure contains a number of provisions relating to alien trafficking victims.
The Senate Committee on the Judiciary approved its version of S. 1301 on October 13, 2011. It was formally reported to the full Senate on November 17, 2011.

At the time of this writing, no date for full Senate consideration of the measure had yet been set.

Full Senate Could Take Up Bill Revising Annual Per-Country Limits for Employment- and Family-Based Immigrant Visas: The full Senate could at any time take up H.R. 3012, the "Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2011. As passed by the House of Representatives, the measure would eliminate the annual per-country limitations for employment-based immigrants, and it would increase the annual per-country limitations for family-based immigant visas from 7.5 percent of the total number of available visas to 15 percent of the total number of available visas. The House of Representatives passed H.R. 3012 on November 26, 2011, by a vote of 389-15.

At the time of this writing, no date for either full Senate or Senate Judiciary Committee consideration of the measure had yet been set.

[qesehmk]

What this does is - it institutes a FIFO (first in first out) system. This way all countries within a category will have same wait time.

EB2IC will be beneficiaries and EB2ROW will have to wait 18 months or more.

EB3IC will be beneficiary but the wait times will still be extraordinary compared to EB2.

While HR3012 is good - it is still not good enough for all immigrants. There needs to be push for another bill that aims at removing or at least doubling the overall quota for employment immigration.

This way the government can actually control immigration through clearance of labor rather than immigration quota. In other words - if Labor proves that there is a labor shortage then why there should be any immigration quota at all. Just my 2 cents. People who like advocacy would do well to think seriously about it.



Can some one inform what will happen wth HR 3012 or point to a forum link?
Will this increase the annual quota from 140,000 or increase allocation to EB2?

[veni001]

evoori and gcgrp - EB2C indeed has real low demand. However unfortunately they are still at that threshold where they will continue to have cutoff date. But if their demand drops below 2800 per year, they will become part of ROWEB2. I hope it does sometime soon. Otherwise EB2C's fate is tied to EB2I unfortunately.

Analyzing EB-485 inventory (preliminary?) published by USCIS last week, looks like it is not a possibility in distant future!
EB2IC together got ~48K pending applications (not counting any porting) with PD before 01MAY2010


I have similar question, the total pending EB3-C is 2400. Does it mean it will be current (or cross July 2007 mark) in next 1 year ?

Only if EB3ROW becomes current and EB3C demand remain less than its annual allowed numbers (~2,800)

[vizcard]

What this does is - it institutes a FIFO (first in first out) system. This way all countries within a category will have same wait time.

EB2IC will be beneficiaries and EB2ROW will have to wait 18 months or more.

EB3IC will be beneficiary but the wait times will still be extraordinary compared to EB2.

While HR3012 is good - it is still not good enough for all immigrants. There needs to be push for another bill that aims at removing or at least doubling the overall quota for employment immigration.

This way the government can actually control immigration through clearance of labor rather than immigration quota. In other words - if Labor proves that there is a labor shortage then why there should be any immigration quota at all. Just my 2 cents. People who like advocacy would do well to think seriously about it.

I would add one more point. There is a transition clause in there where in the first 2 (or 3?) years its not a perfect FIFO. It basically says that not more than 85% will be given to any one country. .. something like that.

[qesehmk]

veni

we are talking about EB2C there. Not the entire EB2 category.


Analyzing EB-485 inventory (preliminary?) published by USCIS last week, looks like it is not a possibility in distant future!
EB2IC together got ~48K pending applications (not counting any porting) with PD before 01MAY2010



Only if EB3ROW becomes current and EB3C demand remain less than its annual allowed numbers (~2,800)

Evoori - I just realized you had asked about EB3C. So for EB3C, there is a lot more CP demand which together with 485 exceeds 2800 easily. Which is why difficult that EB3C will become current.

[evoori]

veni

we are talking about EB2C there. Not the entire EB2 category.



Evoori - I just realized you had asked about EB3C. So for EB3C, there is a lot more CP demand which together with 485 exceeds 2800 easily. Which is why difficult that EB3C will become current.

Thanks.. I was totally missing the CP cases..

Can we say that EB3C porters are victim here ? even though there is only 2400 EB3C pending 485, I doubt there will be to many porters from there but DOS made EB2C as U along with EB2I.. and now they also cannot port..

[qesehmk]

Life can sometimes be a b-----. I don't know what to say Evoori. It really sucks.


Thanks.. I was totally missing the CP cases..

Can we say that EB3C porters are victim here ? even though there is only 2400 EB3C pending 485, I doubt there will be to many porters from there but DOS made EB2C as U along with EB2I.. and now they also cannot port..

[ct06511]

Based on the current demand data, any prediction on what the cutoff dates could be in Q1 2013 (Qct, Nov, Dec) for EB2I and EB2C? Assume there is or isn't QSP. It is possible to clear 1/2008 in Q1? Thanks!

[veni001]

veni
we are talking about EB2C there. Not the entire EB2 category.


Q,
Even EB2C got 8,337 pending applications with PD before 01MAY2010, which is almost equal to three years regular allocation.

[vedu]

From the latest inventory report, I noticed that EB2 ROW is current in spite of having 11,189 case pending. So based on the same logic, USCIS does not need to clear all 39,577 pending EB2 I cases for the dates to start moving again. On the contrary, USCIS will always be required to keep more buffer of EB2I pending cases as compared to EB2 ROW cases in order to ensure no wastage of visas in any given year.

What do you guys think?

[PD2008AUG25]

From the latest inventory report, I noticed that EB2 ROW is current in spite of having 11,189 case pending. So based on the same logic, USCIS does not need to clear all 39,577 pending EB2 I cases for the dates to start moving again. On the contrary, USCIS will always be required to keep more buffer of EB2I pending cases as compared to EB2 ROW cases in order to ensure no wastage of visas in any given year.

What do you guys think?

True, however they do have to clear all the cases in demand data for moving dates again beyond 1 May 2010. We will see, but majority of 39,577 pending cases will show in up demand data in few months.

[vedu]

My point is that at any given point of time, there will always be 15,000 to 20,000 EB2 IC cases pending in the inventory. The inventory doesn't have to reach zero for dates to go beyond May 01, 2010. This level of inventory is absolutely necessary in order to take care of processing times, spill over, etc. For example, if we get 25,000 spill over next year (just an assumption), then at the end of the next year, USCIS/DOS will have to push the dates beyond 01 May 2010 in order to maintain an adequate level of inventory. In summary, I don't agree with the guys who think that it will take three years worth of spill over for the dates to go beyond 01 May 2010.


True, however they do have to clear all the cases in demand data for moving dates again beyond 1 May 2010. We will see, but majority of 39,577 pending cases will show in up demand data in few months.

[PD2008AUG25]

My point is that at any given point of time, there will always be 15,000 to 20,000 EB2 IC cases pending in the inventory. The inventory doesn't have to reach zero for dates to go beyond May 01, 2010. This level of inventory is absolutely necessary in order to take care of processing times, spill over, etc. For example, if we get 25,000 spill over next year (just an assumption), then at the end of the next year, USCIS/DOS will have to push the dates beyond 01 May 2010 in order to maintain an adequate level of inventory. In summary, I don't agree with the guys who think that it will take three years worth of spill over for the dates to go beyond 01 May 2010.

Definition of cut-off date doesn't seem to support what you believe.

The cut-off date for an oversubscribed category is the priority date of the first applicant who could not be reached within the numerical limits.


Let's assume, at some hypothetical point in future just 10k is remaining in demand data, rest is cleared. If no more numbers are available that FY CO can not push dates to generate inventory. that would mean issuing visa to those 10k people.

CO doesn't seem to care that much about inventory as people suggest. He didn't move dates until demand data was less than 1k. He knew moving cut-off dates by years would generate more than adequate inventory for current fiscal, still he kept feeding us "low demand data" ruse. By moving dates aggressively in 4-5 months, he was more than able to generate enough documentarily qualified applications to meet any surge in SOFADs.

CO wouldn't have to do these things if there were simply 2 different dates. One for assigning visa numbers to adjudicated applications and another for filing i-485. Without that he will have to keep playing this game.

[vedu]

Exactly, the CO will repeat the same thing time and again. The inventory doesn't have to and will never reach zero. No matter which pending inventory report you look at since last few years, you will always see pending EB2 IC inventory in the excess of 10,000-15,000. With the same logic, as soon as the current inventory goes back to around 15,000, we will see next movement beyond May 01, 2010.


Definition of cut-off date doesn't seem to support what you believe.

The cut-off date for an oversubscribed category is the priority date of the first applicant who could not be reached within the numerical limits.


Let's assume, at some hypothetical point in future just 10k is remaining in demand data, rest is cleared. If no more numbers are available that FY CO can not push dates to generate inventory. that would mean issuing visa to those 10k people.

CO doesn't seem to care that much about inventory as people suggest. He didn't move dates until demand data was less than 1k. He knew moving cut-off dates by years would generate more than adequate inventory for current fiscal, still he kept feeding us "low demand data" ruse. By moving dates aggressively in 4-5 months, he was more than able to generate enough documentarily qualified applications to meet any surge in SOFADs.

CO wouldn't have to do these things if there were simply 2 different dates. One for assigning visa numbers to adjudicated applications and another for filing i-485. Without that he will have to keep playing this game.

[bvsamrat]

Since when this 140,000 quota is put in place? Is there any effort or or plan to introdce any bill in the past or future to increase?

I agree. With PERM, one should get automatic GC. This is what happens in other countries. Atleast with more strict UCIS control, misuse can be avoided.


What this does is - it institutes a FIFO (first in first out) system. This way all countries within a category will have same wait time.

EB2IC will be beneficiaries and EB2ROW will have to wait 18 months or more.

EB3IC will be beneficiary but the wait times will still be extraordinary compared to EB2.

While HR3012 is good - it is still not good enough for all immigrants. There needs to be push for another bill that aims at removing or at least doubling the overall quota for employment immigration.

This way the government can actually control immigration through clearance of labor rather than immigration quota. In other words - if Labor proves that there is a labor shortage then why there should be any immigration quota at all. Just my 2 cents. People who like advocacy would do well to think seriously about it.

[vizcard]

My point is that at any given point of time, there will always be 15,000 to 20,000 EB2 IC cases pending in the inventory. The inventory doesn't have to reach zero for dates to go beyond May 01, 2010. This level of inventory is absolutely necessary in order to take care of processing times, spill over, etc. For example, if we get 25,000 spill over next year (just an assumption), then at the end of the next year, USCIS/DOS will have to push the dates beyond 01 May 2010 in order to maintain an adequate level of inventory. In summary, I don't agree with the guys who think that it will take three years worth of spill over for the dates to go beyond 01 May 2010.

Fundamentally, I don't disagree with what you posted. But I'd like to point out a couple of things.

1. When you move dates, anyone in that time period is eligible for a GC if they are pre-adjudicated. Playing out your scenario where we get 25K SOFAD next year and we clear out 2008 - CO moves it to May 2010. In this situation, you could see cases where someone with Apr 2010 PD getting GC before Jan 2009. I know this is extreme but its possible. CO wants to avoid this and try to keep it FIFO thats the reason for moving it to Aug 2007 so that earlier PDs would get GC first ... otherwise he could have just left the dates at May 2010.

Secondly, Inventory = Demand + applications that haven't been processed. The key is the latter part of the equation. That part needs to be considered when moving dates.

When they moved dates this time, CO's explanation was that "demand was low" and not "inventory was low" implying that as long as there is demand, there is no immediate need to move dates. So history could repeat itself in terms of strategy.

There are other factors in play too - primarily workload and directions given. EB applications are only a portion of what they do. Given the timing, they may have to shift gears to reissuing EAD/APs and stop or slow down processing 485s. . The other possibility is USCIS might say that we have sufficient demand for the next year and half, so let's stop working on EB2IC for now and shift our focus to something else that's more immediate. I know if I was running the show, I would probably do this.

[vizcard]

Since when this 140,000 quota is put in place? Is there any effort or or plan to introdce any bill in the past or future to increase?

I agree. With PERM, one should get automatic GC. This is what happens in other countries. Atleast with more strict UCIS control, misuse can be avoided.

The other weird part is that, when PERMS are approved it is at a point in time usually 4-5 yrs before the actual GC is issued. The labor availability situation could change dramatically in those 4-5 yrs. In 2007 and most of 2008, the economy was good, unemployment was low, there was a genuine shortage of skilled labor. Now I don't know for sure. Maybe its still there but I guarantee that there is less shortage now than in 2007/2008.

[tatikonda]

All,

Here is new article on HR 3012. Nothing much new..

I was little confused with following quotes,
Gurus, please share your ideas !!


Senator Grassley seemed to be more amenable to Senator Schumer's bill although there were rumors that he wanted to place more safeguards on the Irish E-3 proposal.

It was finally rumored that Senator Schumer said that the Democrats were not holding up the bill, but rather Senator Brown who had boasted to his Irish constituents that the Irish visa bill was "about to pop."

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2012,0515-lee.shtm

Thank you

[veni001]

Based on the current demand data, any prediction on what the cutoff dates could be in Q1 2013 (Qct, Nov, Dec) for EB2I and EB2C? Assume there is or isn't QSP. It is possible to clear 1/2008 in Q1? Thanks!

There are several unknowns but, considering the fact that both EB1 and EB2ROW may have a COD before end of FY2012 and last weeks EB-485 inventory data, i am not expecting EB2I move any further than 15AUG2007 before Q3 of FY 2013.

On the other hand EB2C could move to mid 2008 by Q2 of FY2013.

[natvyas]

There are several unknowns but, considering the fact that both EB1 and EB2ROW may have a COD before end of FY2012 and last weeks EB-485 inventory data, i am not expecting EB2I move any further than 15AUG2007 before Q3 of FY 2013.

On the other hand EB2C could move to mid 2008 by Q2 of FY2013.

Veni

Dont you think EB2I should move because of the 2800 that would be available starting Oct 12?

Regards
Nat

[vishnu]

It won't move but probably brought back to Aug 2007 - the idea being that there will be sufficient porting numbers to absorb the 2800 visas.