EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[openaccount]

Huge demand in EB2ROW could be bcz of HR3012 speculation ?
EB2IC consumed around 24-26K in 2012 and now EB2ROW does not have enough?

[murali83]

Huge demand in EB2ROW could be bcz of HR3012 speculation ?
EB2IC consumed around 24-26K in 2012 and now EB2ROW does not have enough?

I think CO is playing it safe. All the movement so far has happened on his assumption that EB1 will yield the same numbers as FY 2011. But I guess he got a surprise on that and hence the announcement in March (that EB1 might reach its cap, he might have actually exhausted more than the 54% that he is allowed). But then he realized that he cannot have a cod on EB1 when EB2 row is current. So now when he says that EB1 is current and will remain current, but EB2-row may (a big may in my humble opinion) have a cut off date, i guess it means he will take some numbers from EB2-row and give it to EB1 to make it current always. Long story short, EB2I-C got more numbers than they should have from EB2-row. As spec alluded before, I really doubt that EB2-row demand has picked up. It is more like haloed lines were crossed, or EB2I-C on trackiit representation is not as high as we think and more people between Aug 15 2007 and March 15-2008 got greened than we think. The numbers when released will tell the story

[sweta.shetty]

thanks everyone for suggestion. My H1B is sent for extension and the case is being reviewed. I was referring to receipt that USCIS sends when they receive the documents for extension. This receipt is what my firm's immigration is not able to trace. My firm is sending a DMV letter with their letter, hoping it helps. To extend DL in Minnesota requires receipt that USCIS sends when they receive the documents or the I797. Since I dont have both, kind of stuck now.

[vizcard]

thanks everyone for suggestion. My H1B is sent for extension and the case is being reviewed. I was referring to receipt that USCIS sends when they receive the documents for extension. This receipt is what my firm's immigration is not able to trace. My firm is sending a DMV letter with their letter, hoping it helps. To extend DL in Minnesota requires receipt that USCIS sends when they receive the documents or the I797. Since I dont have both, kind of stuck now.

Sweta
IF the DMV doesn't take the lawyer letters try calling the USCIS customer service line and ask them for a copy. They do that for Approval Notices so I imagine they can do it for Receipt Notices although I don't know for sure.

Also, for the future, scan/copy or take a picture of every immigration document that you have. It helps a lot if you need to get copies.

[bieber]

I have no wish to be controversial, but isn't the quote in the article



just shorthand for saying they are using the lack of a Prevailing Wage for L1 to bring in cheap labour and undercut the domestic competition?

somewhere it said, the margins are down 60%. Indian IT companies are playing it their way and it's now time to pay the dues.

[chikitsak]

Sorry to see the dates retrogress. I sure we do not see and "unavailable" in the IC column as some have predicted. Please do not loose heart. I think as soon as in OCt 2012 we will again see a rapid movement forward with dates reaching late 2010 and even beyond.
In the mean time all the applications that have been currently submitted would have been pre-adjudicated and ready to go.

[murali83]

I don't understand this either.

Unless USCIS stop pre-adjudicating cases after August 2007 entirely, by October 2012 there will be more pre-adjudicated cases than visas available, even if QSP is used.

That would mean a Cut Off Date earlier than May 2010 would have to be imposed, probably in early/mid 2008.

As an aside, it is annoying that the Demand Data has not been updated. It probably means it won't be published this month.

Spec,

That statement is giving me nightmares. This will again be another fiasco like USCIS has done for years. He might push up dates back to April 2010 and all cases will processed randomly. Then in 2-3 months they will realize that they are short of visas for other categories and retrogress dates back to maybe Nov 2007. So overall 20000 visas will given very randomly to people between Aug 15, 2007 and April 2010 and we will keep swinging back and forth for at least 3 years before all inventory till April 2010 is cleared.

I hope sense prevails and they move dates slowly in the coming year FY 2013. This way they clear cases (not strictly, but at least within reasonable limits) on the basis of Priority dates. Again, I have no intent to create a controversy against people with later PD's getting cards early, that is not the intent of my post

Am I right or am I completely off track.

Please advise

[veni001]

May Visa Bulletin is out

Interesting comments

D. RETROGRESSION OF THE CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CUT-OFF DATE


Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer.


Please note no "Demand Data" release for May-2012 Bulletin.

In addition..

F. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (monthly)

Employment First: Current
Employment Second:
Worldwide: Potential need for cut-off date to be established
China and India: Potentially “Unavailable”
Employment Third:
Worldwide: three to five weeks
China: up to six weeks
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: three to five weeks
Philippines: three to five weeks

Employment Fourth: Current
Employment Fifth: Current

Please be advised that the above ranges are only estimates for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand which can occur at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

[iatiam]

Fellas, We had some discussions about the possibility of sabbatical on EAD. My attorney confirms that it is indeed possible to do so since the applicant is doing it on his/her own volition and still would be gainfully employed with the company. (Disclaimer: Do check with your own attorney if you are planning to make such life decisions)

IATIAM

[redsox2009]

My theory,

My guess is that GC under EB-2 might had crossed the limit or near the limit of 42000, which is the limit per year. Since this is third quarter they cannot do spillover, so USCIS cleverly moved the dates back to Aug 2007, since everyone before Aug 2007 got the GC's. USCIS will release the flood gates once again in last quarter of this year.

Visa Dept statement clearly states that

"Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer."

[sreddy]

My interpretation of the May bulletin : Don't be surprised to see EB2IC with "Unavailable" status in short term. However they will try to move dates as close as possible to 1st May, 2010 when 2013 quota is released in October. Again that movement is going to be dependent on demand vs numbers available (as filings are still in progress until end of April, actual demand is still in fluid state).

I think hopes of any forward movment in the next 5 months are fading away quickly :(

Is there any thing we can collectively do to get HR3012 back on track?

[qesehmk]

Header of this thread updated to make comments on May Visa Bulletin.

In nutshell I stand by original prediction even now. Overall the picture is not as pessimistic as ROW retrogression talk points to - NOR it is as rosy as the talk about EB2IC dates reaching 2010 in 2013 points to. The reality is somewhere in between.

[sweta.shetty]

Thanks Vizcard. Will try that option out.

[vizcard]

However the way people should read what CO is saying is - he wants to bring in as many EB2IC into 485 stage as possible so that these people have some assurance of EAD and life continuity. I applaud CO for that. I do not think you should read his statement as he indicating that he is going to give visas to all people upto 2010 by Sep 2013.

Q
Just read thru your analysis in the header. I can't imagine that CO will be able to give ppl the assurance of EAD (any more than he has now). For that he has to move the dates beyond May 2010 and that would be mean chaos. Anyone with a pre-adjudicated case could get greened irrespective of PD. The Senators' phones would ring off the hook and their mailboxes will be over stuffed with letters.

I really can't see him moving it beyond what he can actually dole out in terms of REAL visas.

[sreddy]

Thanks Q. Yes I agree with you on dates reaching somewhere in the mid point for May 2010. Problem is hard to predict without numbers in hand.

I will be happy to be proven wrong, but I am not that optimistic on forward movement in 2012. Main reason is in current year I suspect there may be overallocation already, and so CO thinks he cannot give any more numbers at all to IC, even for those applying late for dates before Aug 2007. Again that is based on what I think, not based on any facts/number.


Header of this thread updated to make comments on May Visa Bulletin.

In nutshell I stand by original prediction even now. Overall the picture is not as pessimistic as ROW retrogression talk points to - NOR it is as rosy as the talk about EB2IC dates reaching 2010 in 2013 points to. The reality is somewhere in between.

[qesehmk]

vizcard

CO doesn't need to move the dates beyond the dates in last April 2012 Visa Bulletin at all for next 18 months or so. However the fact he is talking about 2010 implies he is going to do a QSP in Q1 2013 and thus create the need to move the dates again. In one breath he is saying there will be EB2ROW retro and in next he is saying moving dates for EB2IC into 2010. Something doesn't add up. So the only thing we can guess is - he does want to move EB2IC dates beyond what math really supports.



Q
Just read thru your analysis in the header. I can't imagine that CO will be able to give ppl the assurance of EAD (any more than he has now). For that he has to move the dates beyond May 2010 and that would be mean chaos. Anyone with a pre-adjudicated case could get greened irrespective of PD. The Senators' phones would ring off the hook and their mailboxes will be over stuffed with letters.

I really can't see him moving it beyond what he can actually dole out in terms of REAL visas.


Thanks Q. Yes I agree with you on dates reaching somewhere in the mid point for May 2010. Problem is hard to predict without numbers in hand.

I will be happy to be proven wrong, but I am not that optimistic on forward movement in 2012. Main reason is in current year I suspect there may be overallocation already, and so CO thinks he cannot give any more numbers at all to IC, even for those applying late for dates before Aug 2007. Again that is based on what I think, not based on any facts/number.

sreddy - I am not saying that in 2012 dates will move to May 2010. I am saying they will move to Q1 2008. I am not saying WHEN the dates will move into 2010 yet.

[goforgreen]

I think without visa fraud/abuse the business models of many of these Indian IT companies would fall apart.



Thats a very sweeping statement.

[harapatta2012]

Q,
I agree with what you said that' REAL movement is going to be inbetween Rosy and pessimistic description'. In no way (besides law change) can 2010 have visa number in 2013, dont add up.
What I dont agree is...that things are out of question such as...EB2 ROW retro + EB2I no visa number allocation in 2012....infact if you look at both...they are complimentry...As much I like this not to happen...I guess they ahve some chance of happening.

What I ma confused is movement starting 2013 fiscal yr. How is CO so optimistic about EB2IC starting Oct 2012. Suddenly he seems concerned..which is excellent..but whats causing that? Where are visa numbers coming from in fiscal 2013??



vizcard

CO doesn't need to move the dates beyond the dates in last April 2012 Visa Bulletin at all for next 18 months or so. However the fact he is talking about 2010 implies he is going to do a QSP in Q1 2013 and thus create the need to move the dates again. In one breath he is saying there will be EB2ROW retro and in next he is saying moving dates for EB2IC into 2010. Something doesn't add up. So the only thing we can guess is - he does want to move EB2IC dates beyond what math really supports.






sreddy - I am not saying that in 2012 dates will move to May 2010. I am saying they will move to Q1 2008. I am not saying WHEN the dates will move into 2010 yet.

[vizcard]

vizcard

CO doesn't need to move the dates beyond the dates in last April 2012 Visa Bulletin at all for next 18 months or so. However the fact he is talking about 2010 implies he is going to do a QSP in Q1 2013 and thus create the need to move the dates again. In one breath he is saying there will be EB2ROW retro and in next he is saying moving dates for EB2IC into 2010. Something doesn't add up. So the only thing we can guess is - he does want to move EB2IC dates beyond what math really supports.

Definitely agree that things don't add up.

Hypothetically, if he does impose a COD on ROW this FY, any SO from EB1 and EB5 would go to EB2 I/C first (because SO is given by PD). So if ROW is retrogressed, we will still see EB2 I/C move and ROW stand still. Boy will that set off a sh!t storm.

[Spectator]

Definitely agree that things don't add up.

Hypothetically, if he does impose a COD on ROW this FY, any SO from EB1 and EB5 would go to EB2 I/C first (because SO is given by PD). So if ROW is retrogressed, we will still see EB2 I/C move and ROW stand still. Boy will that set off a sh!t storm.vizcard,

I don't think it would work like that.

SO first has to go to Countries who have not reached the per Country limit. If there are none, then SO is made available to Countries that have already reached the per Country limits, such as China and India.

Currently, it works like it does because EB2-WW is Current and have no need of SO visas.

If EB2-WW was retrogressed, it means the number of visas available are only sufficient to satisfy EB2-WW demand to the COD imposed. None would be available to EB2-IC and they would have to be made Unavailable.

The storm would surround the fact that too many visas had already been allocated to EB2-IC.

[qesehmk]

The retrogression is EB2ROW is at category level vs EB2IC retrogression which is at country level.

EB2ROW is almost a category - the countries inside it don't necessarily use up their individual limits but overall the category may. And so if SO is available from EB1 while EB2ROW is retrogressed - that is a very interesting situation. We don't know with certainty what will happen.

My take is that countries with oldest PDs will get SO. Spec think (correct me Spec if required) that SO will go to the countries that haven't yet utilized their country limits.



Definitely agree that things don't add up.

Hypothetically, if he does impose a COD on ROW this FY, any SO from EB1 and EB5 would go to EB2 I/C first (because SO is given by PD). So if ROW is retrogressed, we will still see EB2 I/C move and ROW stand still. Boy will that set off a sh!t storm.

[vizcard]

vizcard,

I don't think it would work like that.

SO first has to go to Countries who have not reached the per Country limit. If there are none, then SO is made available to Countries that have already reached the per Country limits, such as China and India.

Currently, it works like it does because EB2-WW is Current and have no need of SO visas.

If EB2-WW was retrogressed, it means the number of visas available are only sufficient to satisfy EB2-WW demand to the COD imposed. None would be available to EB2-IC and they would have to be made Unavailable.

The storm would surround the fact that too many visas had already been allocated to EB2-IC.


The retrogression is EB2ROW is at category level vs EB2IC retrogression which is at country level.

EB2ROW is almost a category - the countries inside it don't necessarily use up their individual limits but overall the category may. And so if SO is available from EB1 while EB2ROW is retrogressed - that is a very interesting situation. We don't know with certainty what will happen.

My take is that countries with oldest PDs will get SO. Spec think (correct me Spec if required) that SO will go to the countries that haven't yet utilized their country limits.

Q
I get what Spec is saying and it makes sense. historically, i doubt ROW countries hit their per-country limit. If they did hit their limit, they would have their own COD. So if ROW is retrogressed it means that EB2IC was given more than they should have been and hence as a whole has been retrogressed. So the SO would go to the ROW country with the most backlog, make its way across orher ROW countries and then to EB2IC. Theoretically that makes sense under current rules but this gives everyone a sneak preview of the world under HR3012.

[Spectator]

Q
I get what Spec is saying and it makes sense. historically, i doubt ROW countries hit their per-country limit. If they did hit their limit, they would have their own COD. So if ROW is retrogressed it means that EB2IC was given more than they should have been and hence as a whole has been retrogressed. So the SO would go to the ROW country with the most backlog, make its way across orher ROW countries and then to EB2IC. Theoretically that makes sense under current rules but this gives everyone a sneak preview of the world under HR3012.vizcard,

You understand exactly what I am saying.

The Worldwide grouping only exists for convenience to control the total number of visas available in a Category, and says that all Countries apart from those shown separately share the same COD. Ultimately it consists of 160 odd individual Countries, who will be treated as such when necessary.

Leaving aside South Korea as a special case, which used 4.8k in FY2010, the next highest users outside of EB2-IC were Philippines with 2.2k (another special case), Canada with 1.7k, Taiwan with 1.3k and Pakistan with 1k. No other Country reached 1k.

So if EB2-WW (including Mexico and Philippines who share the same COS) has demand of less than 34.4k plus any spillover from EB1/EB5 and a COD is imposed, it means that too many visas have been allocated to EB2-IC and EB2-IC must automatically be made Unavailable. Had an excess of visas not been assigned to EB2-IC, then obviously there would have beeen no need to set a COD for EB2-WW, as sufficient visas would have been available to meet demand.

Each Country has an overall numerical limit of 7%. Should it seem that a Country would reach its numerical limit, it would be pulled out separately in the VB, as Dominican Republic has been for short periods previously.

The only guaranteed visas for EB2-IC are the initial 2.8k each. Any above that number are made available on the basis that they will not required by other Countries that have not reached their own numerical limit.

This is also the reason why, if spillover ever falls down to EB3, it will be made available to EB3-WW first. Only when there is no further demand from Countries who have not reached their per Country limit can it be made available to those that have (or will). Since EB3-I has such an early COD, all visas would then be made available to them for some considerable time.

[nathang]

vizcard,

I don't think it would work like that.

SO first has to go to Countries who have not reached the per Country limit. If there are none, then SO is made available to Countries that have already reached the per Country limits, such as China and India.

Currently, it works like it does because EB2-WW is Current and have no need of SO visas.

If EB2-WW was retrogressed, it means the number of visas available are only sufficient to satisfy EB2-WW demand to the COD imposed. None would be available to EB2-IC and they would have to be made Unavailable.

The storm would surround the fact that too many visas had already been allocated to EB2-IC.

This makes sense. The visas are not available to the category as a whole. So everything is retrogressed. But in this case, shouldn't the CO calculate the COD for each country based on the amount of visas available in spillovers and move the dates to a common denominator for EB2-WW. Then when the next fiscal starts, he will have more visas to allocate and then WW will be made current depending on how many are required for each country and EB2IC will be retrogressed as usual along with other countries that need more than the country cap.

Atleast this is what I am guessing should happen, if it does.


The retrogression is EB2ROW is at category level vs EB2IC retrogression which is at country level.

EB2ROW is almost a category - the countries inside it don't necessarily use up their individual limits but overall the category may. And so if SO is available from EB1 while EB2ROW is retrogressed - that is a very interesting situation. We don't know with certainty what will happen.

My take is that countries with oldest PDs will get SO. Spec think (correct me Spec if required) that SO will go to the countries that haven't yet utilized their country limits.

This is an interesting perspective. By law I don't think there is any category called EB2ROW and hence they cannot create one. But if it is retrogressed, when visas become available, there must be different COD for different countries based on the demand from each country and the available visas. This will be a nightmare situation for the CO. But if the dates do retrogress, the other perspective is that everyone is retrogressed and hence any visas should be given to the oldest applicants based on PD, which means IC will get it.

Not sure how the interpretation will work. If EB3 is any indication, then WW will get the spillovers and then to IC. But I am guessing that even EB3ww may not be right. I find it hard to believe that every year every row country use up less than their quota and still the visas are exhausted.

[Spectator]

Q,
I agree with what you said that' REAL movement is going to be inbetween Rosy and pessimistic description'. In no way (besides law change) can 2010 have visa number in 2013, dont add up.
What I dont agree is...that things are out of question such as...EB2 ROW retro + EB2I no visa number allocation in 2012....infact if you look at both...they are complimentry...As much I like this not to happen...I guess they ahve some chance of happening.

What I ma confused is movement starting 2013 fiscal yr. How is CO so optimistic about EB2IC starting Oct 2012. Suddenly he seems concerned..which is excellent..but whats causing that? Where are visa numbers coming from in fiscal 2013??harapatta2012,

I agree that retrogression of EB2-WW and EB2-IC being made Unavailable cannot be discounted.

IF EB1 do not provide any spare visas, then it is a distinct possibility, since spare visas towards SOFAD could only come from EB2-WW and EB5.

Unless EB1 processing times have increased, the published I-140 data and denial rates mean that EB1 was due to rise to 35-36k this year anyway. It then doesn't take much to reach 40k and deny any spillover to EB2.

EB5 will optimistically provide 5k spare visas this year towards EB2-IC SOFAD.

With the initial allocation of 5.6k, that is 10.6k available SOFAD, leaving EB2-WW to provide the remainder that is required.

Looking at the approvals to date, I cannot realistically get a figure of much less than 20k used by EB2-IC to date.

That means EB2-WW would need to provide 9.4k towards SOFAD.

The initial allocation to EB2-WW (which includes M & P) is 34.4k. To provide 9.4k would mean total approvals for EB2-WW of not more than 25k, a figure EB2-WW may be on course to approach.

In FY2010, EB2-WW used 27.4k and probably used somewhere between 23.5 to 27.5k in FY2011.

Any further approvals for EB2-IC for cases with a PD prior to AUG1507 (including Porting cases) will increase the SOFAD required by EB2-IC and reduce the number of EB2-WW approvals required before visas available to EB2 run out.

Even if EB2-IC approvals to date are a slightly lower number, as Q believes, it is still a possibility, albeit a smaller one.

I think CO is still banking on some fall down from EB1, which is entirely possible.

After being burnt by QSP this year, it seems relatively less likely that CO would be as aggressive with it next year, especially as he will have a ready made backlog of pre-adjudicated cases.

Even if he is, as a practical matter, EB2 cannot receive much more than about 7k a month, even for short periods. Even if that whole amount was given to EB2-IC, there should be enough pre-adjudicated cases by October 2012 to ensure that a Cut Off Date earlier than May 2010 would have to be imposed.

I really am at a loss and struggling to understand why CO would include the phrase about May 2010 iin the VB. I guess we will find out.

[Spectator]

I find it hard to believe that every year every row country use up less than their quota and still the visas are exhausted.nathang,

It is a good job they don't!!

160 times 7% would be 1,120% !!!

That is the reason why EB3-ROW are stuck. They have the demand, but after China, India, Mexico and Philippines have used their share, only about 24k are left before reaching the 40k limit set for EB3 overall.

That leaves most ROW Countries receiving less than 1% despite having considerably more demand.

[qesehmk]

Some of them actually have. e.g. S korea in EB2, Canada, England, S korea in EB1. However, the decision to split a country away from ROW on its own is a bit mysterious one. E.g. couple of years back they did that for Haiti in FB category. However same is not true for the ones I mentioned above. So probaby they look for presistence of the situation rather than one off years.

But coming back to our discussion - I do not agree that ROW is retrogressed because EB2IC was given more than its due. I would actually argue the otherway round. Somehow EB2ROW couldn't utilize and hence EB2IC received its quarterly spillover and now suddenly they are seeing EB2ROW demand which makes them believe EB2ROW will need retrogression. In fact - to be honest it is also quite possible that EB2ROW can retro on its own. There doesnt have to be an EB2IC in picture for that.

I also disagree that SO will go to country with most backlog. What may be more accurate is that SO will go to country with oldest backlog.

Now that is also not quite true. What IMHO is absolutely true is - within EB2 limit the visas are allocated to EB2 by country limit followed by PD. However once that EB2 limit is reached - every single visa must be allocated based on PD only.

And we are going to reach that situation if EB2ROW is retrogressed sufficiently long enough. The question is - what will happen to the EB5 and possible EB1 SO. Will it go to EB2ROW and make it current before it comes to EB2IC or will it satisfy EB2ROW until EB2 category limit is reached (or EB2ROW becomes currnt) before reaching EB2IC.

My 2 cents are on the latter :)


Q
I get what Spec is saying and it makes sense. historically, i doubt ROW countries hit their per-country limit. If they did hit their limit, they would have their own COD. So if ROW is retrogressed it means that EB2IC was given more than they should have been and hence as a whole has been retrogressed. So the SO would go to the ROW country with the most backlog, make its way across orher ROW countries and then to EB2IC. Theoretically that makes sense under current rules but this gives everyone a sneak preview of the world under HR3012.



This is an interesting perspective. By law I don't think there is any category called EB2ROW and hence they cannot create one. But if it is retrogressed, when visas become available, there must be different COD for different countries based on the demand from each country and the available visas. This will be a nightmare situation for the CO. But if the dates do retrogress, the other perspective is that everyone is retrogressed and hence any visas should be given to the oldest applicants based on PD, which means IC will get it.

Not sure how the interpretation will work. If EB3 is any indication, then WW will get the spillovers and then to IC. But I am guessing that even EB3ww may not be right. I find it hard to believe that every year every row country use up less than their quota and still the visas are exhausted.

I agree. EB2ROW is not a category. But practically it becomes one with 72% of the allocation.

SO doesnt come to EB2IC (or the countries with the oldest backlog first). EB2ROW will get their fair share of 72% and then the remaining SO will go by PD. Again .. my opinion only.

[vizcard]

It really is a what-if scenario.
1. If EB2ROW is retrogressed because they indeed don't have enough visas (because of over-allocation to EB2 I/C) AND each ROW country has not reached their per-country limit, THEN it goes to the ROW country with the oldest backlog (Q - I just equated oldest to longest but I see there could be a difference).
2. IF EB2ROW is retrogressed as a precautionary measure and if EB2 I/C has not been overallocated, then it will follow the normal course of action.

Hopefully, we get a pleasant surprise with EB1 and don't get an unpleasant one from EB2ROW.

[vishnu]

i've been out, but just to confirm, the last visa bulletin says that people can still file eads based on the may 2010 cut off date? so the retrogression applies to actual GCs but may 2010 or before can still get EADs... v interesting times...

[Spectator]

Spec,

I am not convinced with the theory of spillover visas going to WW .

When Co announced spilling 12000 EB1 visas last year, there were a lot of arguments among chinese that the spillover should be divided equally among the two countries as 6000 each. The law firms openly adviced them about the spill over rules , visas are issued purely based on priority date, irrespective of the usage and limitation.

The Numerical limit of 7% is the upper limit beyond which no country is allotted visa under normal quota and it is not necessary that the WW countries must reach 7% before allowing the otherwise unused visas to most backlogged countries.

I am really confused .Kanmani,

The key phrase in the law that allows visas to be allocated to Countries that have already reached their per Country limit is


If the total number of visas available ..... exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas

Countries who have not yet reached the per Country limit and have demand meet the definition of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas.

If the demand from EB2-WW exceeds the number of spare visas visas available, then none will be available to Countries that have reached the per Country limits already.

The discussion about the 12k last year was after it was determined that there were no other qualified immigrants entitled to the visas. This year is a completely different scenario.

[Kanmani]

Spec , Ok for my better understanding please consider the following scenario.

EB1 is retrogressed back to 2011.
EB1 is getting unused visas from Eb4 and Eb5. How do you allocate visas ?
(a) PD seniority wise
(b) allocate visas to countries starting from least usage

[username]

Sorry did not realize below link is already posted....

Visa Bulletin For May 2012: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5692.html

[srimurthy]

How can USCIS still keep accepting the I-485 applications when the dates are retrogressed to Aug'2007???? Because we can only file I-485 if the PD is current!
********
USCIS has indicated that it will continue accepting China and India Employment Second preference I-485 filings based on the originally announced April cut-off date.
**********

[Spectator]

Spec , Ok for my better understanding please consider the following scenario.

EB1 is retrogressed back to 2011.
EB1 is getting unused visas from Eb4 and Eb5. How do you allocate visas ?
(a) PD seniority wise
(b) allocate visas to countries starting from least usageKanmani,

In that situation:

All Countries compete equally on PD basis until any reach the Per Country limit.

Once a Country approaches the per Country limit and it is determined that insufficient spare visas are going to be available to exceed it, a separate Cut Off Date is established for the Country, or it becomes Unavailable if no more visas are available.

Any remaining visas are competed for strictly by PD by the remaining Countries. Further Countries would have a separate Cut Off Date established as they reached the per Country Limit.

In EB1, based on FY2010 figures, India and China would be the first to have separate Cut Off Dates Established, followed by Great Britain, Canada and South Korea.

If the number of visas available to EB1 was exhausted before the end of the FY, then the whole Category would be made Unavailable.

Add to that the complication that the 7% limit is an overall limit, not necessarily a Category limit.

Although it is calculated over EB and FB, for simplicity let's consider it 7% of 140,000 or 9,800 visas in EB. In FY2010 there were more EB visas so 7% represented 10,546.

Neither Great Britain (5,635) or Canada (5,893) approached that number across EB1-EB5 in FY2010, so they could receive more than the nominal 3,016 visas in EB1 and still have not breached the 7% limit irrespective of whether spare visas were available if they had the earliest PD.

[bieber]

I think crux of the problem is overallocation to EB2IC, If infact EB2 ROW gets a COD and no country from ROW got atleast 7%, still the SO from EB1/EB5 will go to EB2IC not to ROW.

[jackbrown_890]

http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/publications/LPR11.shtm
check Table 10 for 2011 numbers by country of birth...

[jackbrown_890]

Yes you are correct..my mistake..33 EbI total and 17 EBC total..
check,,Table 7 for type and class


I see EB2-I total used only 33,587 in that table (which points to 20-22K for EB2-I). I also don't see EB classification.

[imdeng]

Hey - now we have a concrete idea of the dependent ratio for EB2. The table 7 clearly shows that on EB2 in FY2011, there were 33,055 primary AOS applicants, 23,106 spouses and 8,979 children. This gives us a dependency ratio of 1.971 i.e 1.971 GC numbers needed per primary AOS applicants in EB2. This is quite a bit lower than the ratios we had assumed before - I believe the consensus had formed around 2.125 with several of us recommending 2.25.

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2011/table7d.xls

[murali83]

Thats a good find imdeng. On a lighter note that ratio might be even lesser as we progress further becos these days indian matrimony market is closed for NRI's

[la_2002_ch]

As per Table 7:

Employment-based preferences 139,339 124,384 14,955 (Total of 139,339 VISAS used under EB Category)

So does this mean over 600 VISAS wasted last FY?


Hey - now we have a concrete idea of the dependent ratio for EB2. The table 7 clearly shows that on EB2 in FY2011, there were 33,055 primary AOS applicants, 23,106 spouses and 8,979 children. This gives us a dependency ratio of 1.971 i.e 1.971 GC numbers needed per primary AOS applicants in EB2. This is quite a bit lower than the ratios we had assumed before - I believe the consensus had formed around 2.125 with several of us recommending 2.25.

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2011/table7d.xls

[imdeng]

Overall, 2011 was a pretty good year for EB2 -
1. EB2 consumed 66.8K visas i.e ~26.8K spillover from other categories.
2. This was made possible mainly by EB1 which gave ~14.7K spillover (consumed 25.3K visas)
3. EB4 gave ~3.3K
4. EB5 contributed ~6.7K.
5. Unfortunately EB3 was given the short end of the stick and consumed only 37.2K and hence contributed 2.8K to the spillover.
6. We lost ~0.7K visas due to allocation below the limit.

PS> I am eagerly awaiting Spec's take on this data. Spec - please enlighten us with your insights.
PPS> Thanks JackBrown for posting the link to the data.

[kd2008]

Spec,

I was wondering if you were able to establish the higher EB1 demand this fiscal year from the published data.

Yes, USCIS may be clearing up its pipeline and backlog. But it should not result in 15K more adjudications this fiscal year unless the demand goes up. So I was wondering where did Mr. CO conclude that EB1 will end up using all its quota this year.

Thanks for helping me understand, and sorry if this has been discussed before. I have been busy and not able to follow the forum regularly.

[kd2008]

Thank you Spec. I am still not convinced but this time fault is completely mine by not agreeing with the confusing policy . Let me wait for the real time distribution to see how it goes.

Kanmani, this is what I think Spec may be trying to say:

When spillover from EB1 come down, it applies to EB2 as a whole category. This is one step in it self.

Now within the category there are two tests to determine how the visas are granted (Note, I say visas and not spillover):

1) Are there countries who have demand but not yet consumed the 7% limit? If yes, then visas will be go to them first.

Now say, there is spillover remaining after the above test has been met. So we move to the next test:

2) Are there countries who have demand and have met their 7% limit? If yes, then visas will go according to PD only and not country.

[imdeng]

EB1 consumption will be higher this year not because EB1 demand is high this year (although that still may be true but not by a large amount) but because of slow processing of EB1 last year, a good portion of last year's demand has shifted to this year.

Spec,

I was wondering if you were able to establish the higher EB1 demand this fiscal year from the published data.

Yes, USCIS may be clearing up its pipeline and backlog. But it should not result in 15K more adjudications this fiscal year unless the demand goes up. So I was wondering where did Mr. CO conclude that EB1 will end up using all its quota this year.

Thanks for helping me understand, and sorry if this has been discussed before. I have been busy and not able to follow the forum regularly.

[imdeng]

Yes - this is the correct explanation. Another thing to keep in mind that 7% is for overall EB+FB visa consumption. As an illustration, South Korea keeps getting (much) more than 2.8K in EB3 since it is still below the 7% limit because of its ridiculously low FB visa consumption.


Kanmani, this is what I think Spec may be trying to say:

When spillover from EB1 come down, it applies to EB2 as a whole category. This is one step in it self.

Now within the category there are two tests to determine how the visas are granted (Note, I said visas and not spillover):

1) Are there countries who have demand but not yet consumed the 7% limit? If yes, then visas will be go to them first.

Now say, there is spillover remaining after the above test has been met. So we move to the next test:

2) Are there countries who have demand and have met their 7% limit? If yes, then visas will go according to PD only and not country.

[GC-Utopic]

Spec,

I am not convinced with the theory of spillover visas going to WW .

When Co announced spilling 12000 EB1 visas last year, there were a lot of arguments among chinese that the spillover should be divided equally among the two countries as 6000 each. The law firms openly adviced them about the spill over rules , visas are issued purely based on priority date, irrespective of the usage and limitation.

The Numerical limit of 7% is the upper limit beyond which no country is allotted visa under normal quota and it is not necessary that the WW countries must reach 7% before allowing the otherwise unused visas to most backlogged countries.

I am really confused .

Kanmani, I completely agree with you here,

Diversity should be limited to normal quota, ( DV lottery is present to supplement low usage in EB)

pure Economics of supply demand should dictate the whole of EB category, if not, atleast with SOFAD. I am sure if the law is written now in the post spillover days, it would be different.

[openaccount]

WOW, EB2IC consumed around 45.5k in 2011
EB2-------------------------------66831
EB2I-----33587-2800(EB3I)-----30787
EB2C---17544-2800(Eb3C)-----14744

EB2ROW-------------------------21300
EB2IC----------------------------45531

[kd2008]

WOW, EB2IC consumed around 45.5k in 2011
EB2-------------------------------66831
EB2I-----33587-2800(EB3I)-----30787
EB2C---17544-2800(Eb3C)-----14744

EB2ROW-------------------------21300
EB2IC----------------------------45531

This calculation may not be correct. Please refer to imdeng's post earlier in this thread. I don't think EB2IC consumed that many visas. According to imdeng it was close to 32K to 33K. I don't know for sure. Others please verify.

[imdeng]

To get EB2I numbers you need to subtract EB1I from the 30.8K figure that you have. Similarly for EB2C. Since we don't have those numbers, I don't think we can do a country breakdown of EB2 at this point.

WOW, EB2IC consumed around 45.5k in 2011
EB2-------------------------------66831
EB2I-----33587-2800(EB3I)-----30787
EB2C---17544-2800(Eb3C)-----14744

EB2ROW-------------------------21300
EB2IC----------------------------45531

[kd2008]

EB1 consumption will be higher this year not because EB1 demand is high this year (although that still may be true but not by a large amount) but because of slow processing of EB1 last year, a good portion of last year's demand has shifted to this year.

Yes, I agree with you. But according to the October 2011 inventory there were 14K pending, and October 2010 inventory there were 7.6K pending. So an addition of 6.4K cases this year due to larger backlog of cases. The new demand for this fiscal year will have to jump 15K (last year's spillover) - 6.4K (extra backlog from last year) = 8.6K for Eb1 to consume all its quota. Compared to last year's consumption of 25K, this is a 8.6K/25K = 34.4% jump. Quite unlikely. As Spec has said earlier, ultimately, we may see a small spillover from EB1 at the end of the year.

[kd2008]

kd
For this context, let me call 40k as regular visas and anything over 40k is spillover. I have no doubt in regular visas distribution.
My argument was for spillover allocation after 40K is exhausted and EB2 ROW is assigned with an COD. Lets say oct 2011 for the entire Eb2 catogory ( like EB3 ROW).
10K spillover from Eb4->Eb5->Eb1->Eb2
Whats you take here? Who will be assigned first?

Once the visas come down to EB2, they are applied to the EB2 category as whole. There is no special class of spillover visas.
Now within EB2, there are specific rules for granting the visas. They are same rules irrespective of whether there is a cut-off date for the category or not, and whether the visas are coming from regular quota or from spillover.

The rules within the category are always the same.

Hence USCIS changed the spillover rule in 2009.

Earlier they were doing Eb1ROW => EB2ROW => EB3ROW fall down and no fall across. Now they do it EBROW => EBIC fall across within each category and then a fall down EB1 to EB2 to EB3. This is a category fall down.

[imdeng]

Kanmani - I am recalling the discussions that happened here and in Teddy's ** forum some time back regarding the similar situation in EB3 i.e. if EB3 receives spillover, will it go to EB3ROW or EB3I. I believe after much discussion the majority (not consensus) view was that the visas will go to EB3ROW since the PD based distribution does not happen until all the below-7%-demand is fulfilled. Once there is no more demand from countries below 7% threshold, then any additional visas go to the oldest PD irrespective of the country.

So, in my opinion, if there are countries in EB2ROW that have outstanding demand but have not met the 7% threshold, then any available visas (including spillover) will first go to them.


kd
For this context, let me call 40k as regular visas and anything over 40k is spillover. I have no doubt in regular visas distribution.
My argument was for spillover allocation after 40K is exhausted and EB2 ROW is assigned with an COD, lets say oct 2011 ( like EB3 ROW).
10K spillover from Eb4->Eb5->Eb1->Eb2
Whats your take here? Who will be assigned first?

[murali83]

Yes, I agree with you. But according to the October 2011 inventory there were 14K pending, and October 2010 inventory there were 7.6K pending. So an addition of 6.4K cases this year due to larger backlog of cases. The new demand for this fiscal year will have to jump 15K (last year's spillover) - 6.4K (extra backlog from last year) = 8.6K for Eb1 to consume all its quota. Compared to last year's consumption of 25K, this is a 8.6K/25K = 34.4% jump. Quite unlikely. As Spec has said earlier, ultimately, we may see a small spillover from EB1 at the end of the year.

Kd,

Based on trackitt, can we get an idea. Just by looking at total cases filed, eb1a and b seem very similar to previous years. But eb1c shows a sharp rise. For example eb1c pd's between jan and dec 2010 is 139, while jan and dec 2011 is 219.

But trackiit representation could have gone up. I am unable to backup my argument more. But eb1c could spike it easily by 34%

cheers

[Spectator]

http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/publications/LPR11.shtm
check Table 10 for 2011 numbers by country of birth...Jack,

Once again, thanks for reporting this. It appears the information in the articles by Alan Lee was very accurate.

I hadn't even been looking for the DHS Statistics because they usually come out much later than those from DOS (which still haven't been published). They are usually pretty close to the official DOS figures.

Usage By Category

EB1 ---- 25,251
EB2 ---- 66,831
EB3 ---- 37,216
EB4 ----- 6,701
EB5 ----- 3,340

Total - 139,339

It is an absolute shocker that EB3 received so few visas yet again.

Theoretical spillover from EB1/4/5 appears to be 24.6k. In reality, EB2 received 26.8k which is 2.2k more than was available. Effectively, EB2 robbed EB3 of visas.

Since EB2-C are known to have used at least 8.3k visas, that would make the EB2-I share about 25-26k for SOFAD of about 34k.

That would mean that EB2-ROW/M/P used very close to their 34.4k allocation. If they didn't, then SOFAD must be far higher, but there are limits, if the information about EB2-C is correct and taking into account that India received 33.6k EB visas in total across EB1 - EB5.

The higher SOFAD also indicates that there were a few thousand EB2-IC cases we either didn't know about, or Porting was much higher than anticipated.

Consular Processing in EB2 represented 2.5%, EB3 was 20.0% and CP was 10.7% overall for EB.

We will know when the official DOS Visa Statistics are published, which have the Country breakdown.

Breakdown of EB1

EB1A -------- 2,524 -- 23.67%
EB1B -------- 2,466 -- 23.12%
EB1C -------- 5,675 -- 53.21%

Dependents - 14,586 -- Ratio 2.38 approvals per Primary

Total ------ 25,251

That is very similar to the split for FY2010.

As it affects EB3, it is interesting that Mexico received 9,164 EB visas and Philippines 7,398.

Since neither Country uses huge numbers in other EB Categories, it suggests high usage in EB3, which would depress the numbers available to EB3-ROW.

South Korea again used a very high number of EB visas - 12.6k.

[kd2008]

So, in other words if at all Eb3 category gets some spillover , it doesn't necessarily go to IC backlog, it may be assigned to some group of ROW countries who haven't reached their 2800. Correct?

Thanks imdeng :)

Yes, that is correct and very sad reality for EB3-I folks

[imdeng]

Even more sad considering that EB3 is not even getting its normal 40K allocation. It is absolutely criminal to only give 37.2K visas to EB3 in FY2011 when USCIS/DOS is sitting on a ton of (hopefully pre-approved) EB3 inventory. Inexcusable.

Yes, that is correct and very sad reality for EB3-I folks

[nishant2200]

These are few points which I thought of:

1. CO is going to continue to do QSP.
2. Because of using QSP, in quarters where he sees less demand from EB2-ROW, he is assigning to EB2-IC, whereas when he sees potential of bigger demand from EB2-ROW, which would consume more than a quarter's visas (projection), he would need to set up a COD even for EB2-ROW. I don't think people should blame him for being partial to IC or knowingly advantaging any group, I feel, it's just the dynamics of QSP, which is leading to this situation.
3. Again next time he gets to near depleting the EB2-IC pre-adjudicated inventory, we can expect similar moves.

[idiotic]

These are few points which I thought of:

1. CO is going to continue to do QSP.
2. Because of using QSP, in quarters where he sees less demand from EB2-ROW, he is assigning to EB2-IC, whereas when he sees potential of bigger demand from EB2-ROW, which would consume more than a quarter's visas (projection), he would need to set up a COD even for EB2-ROW. I don't think people should blame him for being partial to IC or knowingly advantaging any group, I feel, it's just the dynamics of QSP, which is leading to this situation.
3. Again next time he gets to near depleting the EB2-IC pre-adjudicated inventory, we can expect similar moves.

Nice explanation. Thanks.

[abcx13]

Yes, I agree with you. But according to the October 2011 inventory there were 14K pending, and October 2010 inventory there were 7.6K pending. So an addition of 6.4K cases this year due to larger backlog of cases. The new demand for this fiscal year will have to jump 15K (last year's spillover) - 6.4K (extra backlog from last year) = 8.6K for Eb1 to consume all its quota. Compared to last year's consumption of 25K, this is a 8.6K/25K = 34.4% jump. Quite unlikely. As Spec has said earlier, ultimately, we may see a small spillover from EB1 at the end of the year.


Unless CO has already allocated that 'expected' spillover from EB1C to EB2IC.

[abcx13]

Theoretical spillover from EB1/4/5 appears to be 24.6k. In reality, EB2 received 26.8k which is 2.2k more than was available. Effectively, EB2 robbed EB3 of visas.

Since EB2-C are known to have used at least 8.3k visas, that would make the EB2-I share about 25-26k for SOFAD of about 34k.

That would mean that EB2-ROW/M/P used very close to their 34.4k allocation. If they didn't, then SOFAD must be far higher, but there are limits, if the information about EB2-C is correct and taking into account that India received 33.6k EB visas in total across EB1 - EB5.

The higher SOFAD also indicates that there were a few thousand EB2-IC cases we either didn't know about, or Porting was much higher than anticipated.

Consular Processing in EB2 represented 2.5%, EB3 was 20.0% and CP was 10.7% overall for EB.

We will know when the official DOS Visa Statistics are published, which have the Country breakdown.

Breakdown of EB1

EB1A -------- 2,524 -- 23.67%
EB1B -------- 2,466 -- 23.12%
EB1C -------- 5,675 -- 53.21%

Dependents - 14,586 -- Ratio 2.38 approvals per Primary

Total ------ 25,251

That is very similar to the split for FY2010.



Few questions:

1. Where do you get the EB2C numbers from?
2. Is DHS FY2011 actually CY 2011? Or is it the same FY (Oct - Sep) that USCIS uses? I assume it is Oct 10 - Sep 11.
3. I don't really understand how you prove that EB2-ROW consumed nearly most of their quota last year and most of SOFAD was just spill down.

It would be interesting to see EB1C usage by India/China for 2011 and 2012 to see if potentially fraudulent applications have increased for everyone or just for IC.

Thanks

[Spectator]

Few questions:

1. Where do you get the EB2C numbers from?
2. Is DHS FY2011 actually CY 2011? Or is it the same FY (Oct - Sep) that USCIS uses? I assume it is Oct 10 - Sep 11.

It would be interesting to see EB1C usage by India/China for 2011 and 2012 to see if potentially fraudulent applications have increased for everyone or just for IC.It is from an official correspondence from DOS in early September 2011. Beyond that, I don't wish to add further comment.

DHS operates the same FY as DOS (October to September).

Unfortunately, EB1 usage by sub-Category by Country have never been published.

[Spectator]

Yes, I agree with you. But according to the October 2011 inventory there were 14K pending, and October 2010 inventory there were 7.6K pending. So an addition of 6.4K cases this year due to larger backlog of cases. The new demand for this fiscal year will have to jump 15K (last year's spillover) - 6.4K (extra backlog from last year) = 8.6K for Eb1 to consume all its quota. Compared to last year's consumption of 25K, this is a 8.6K/25K = 34.4% jump. Quite unlikely. As Spec has said earlier, ultimately, we may see a small spillover from EB1 at the end of the year.kd,

It is perhaps not as unlikely as you may think.

Last year, because of Kazarian, processing times for EB1 appeared to increase (I think by about 3 months). It was discussed a long time ago.

In that case, only 9 months worth of applications were processed in FY2011. Hence we had an unusually low number of approvals in FY2011.

Even if the increased processing times remain this FY, 12 months worth of EB1 cases would be processed. 12/9 represents a 33% increase. If nothing changed, the 25.3k in FY2011 would represent 33.7k in a full year.

If EB1C has increased and/or the processing times are reduced and/or the backlog is reduced, it isn't that difficult to return to the 40k level seen in FY2009 and FY2010.

[vizcard]

anything from EB1 is a bonus.

[geevikram]

Guys,
Sorry for asking this question in this thread, but I know this has the most visibility among the "stars", so here goes:

My case history :
PD : Jul 2008. Getting married May 2012. Have not applied for AOS yet.
Lawyers point :
First Option : Lawyer calls me up and asks me to apply for EAD\AP while also asking to maintain H status as my spouse will be on H4. Now, we need to monitor bulletin and apply for dependent AOS as soon as my PD becomes current. Adv: Can transfer to another employer after 180 on AC 21 on EAD, while still maintaining h1 (purely for H4 purposes).
Second option : Do not do anything now and wait until dates get current again.

Do the options make sense? Tempting to choose option 1. Any suggestions?

[Spectator]

Guys,
Sorry for asking this question in this thread, but I know this has the most visibility among the "stars", so here goes:

My case history :
PD : Jul 2008. Getting married May 2012. Have not applied for AOS yet.
Lawyers point :
First Option : Lawyer calls me up and asks me to apply for EAD\AP while also asking to maintain H status as my spouse will be on H4. Now, we need to monitor bulletin and apply for dependent AOS as soon as my PD becomes current. Adv: Can transfer to another employer after 180 on AC 21 on EAD, while still maintaining h1 (purely for H4 purposes).
Second option : Do not do anything now and wait until dates get current again.

Do the options make sense? Tempting to choose option 1. Any suggestions?You couldn't transfer to another Employer using EAD because you would automatically lose H1B status by doing so.

You could transfer to another Employer using an H1B transfer, which would maintain your H1B status.

The advantage to you of applying for AOS before April 30 is that it starts the AC21 I-140 portability clock.

[geevikram]

Thanks Kanmani,
I did have 125 days to choose, but I never expected dates to retrogress to Aug 2007. If you recall it moved to Mar 2008 in Dec 11 bulletin. Now that it has gone back, it kind of puts me in a spot. Thanks though, I will apply for 485.

[geevikram]

You couldn't transfer to another Employer using EAD because you would automatically lose H1B status by doing so.

You could transfer to another Employer using an H1B transfer, which would maintain your H1B status.

The advantage to you of applying for AOS before April 30 is that it starts the AC21 I-140 portability clock.

Thank you spec and sportsfan. I will apply for AOS.

[gomesnj]

What is the best option on change of address and who should I contact.
I sent my application for I485/EAD/AP to uscis with my old address and received my 3 Receipt notices.
Now I have to move in two weeks to a different location.
Please advice on how do I update uscis on my new address and route them for all the future communications.

[Pundit Arjun]

What is the best option on change of address and who should I contact.
I sent my application for I485/EAD/AP to uscis with my old address and received my 3 Receipt notices.
Now I have to move in two weeks to a different location.
Please advice on how do I update uscis on my new address and route them for all the future communications.

gomesnj, check this out : https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?action=coa

FYI : My Attorney always recommends me to do both (paper and online). I never asked him for the reason, though !

[srividya]

India and china consumed 45.5K in EB1, EB2, EB4 & EB5, At least 32K might be EB2 India & China

As per Oct 1st 2010 Inventory Pending cases are
EB2 China 11404
EB2 India: 24254

But on Oct 1st 2011 Inventory shows 14K pending for EB2 India and China.

Probably Significant Oct Approvals got visa number allocated from 2011 Quota. otherwise there was no reason to clear 10K EB2 India & china cases getting approved in the begining of the year. At the end to avoid numbers wastage all remaining quota got allocated to EB2 pre adjudicated cases.

This is the issue with USCIS taking more time for processing cases ( slow down in EB1 cases & newly filed cases in FY2011) and this may caused VO to insist 27% usage in Q1 & Q2. based on 2011 scenario VO may be prepared to handle similar scenario if it happens in 2012 by moving dates to 2010 and getting enough cases in the system like having 30-40K cases in the pipeline.

if EB2 I & C got 35K last year it will be atleast 25K+ in this year ( Eb1 may consume more + Due to perm delays EB2 ROW may go down further). This may be the reason VO optimistic moving dates to previous cut off dates again to May 1st 2010 earliest possible. )


To get EB2I numbers you need to subtract EB1I from the 30.8K figure that you have. Similarly for EB2C. Since we don't have those numbers, I don't think we can do a country breakdown of EB2 at this point.

[vizcard]

srividya,
we have to wait for the demand and usage data next month but I think we will see that CO has more than enough pipeline to last for FY 2013 and then some. So any major movement would be in Sept 2013 (if at all). Thats my guess for now.

[PD2008AUG25]

srividya,
we have to wait for the demand and usage data next month but I think we will see that CO has more than enough pipeline to last for FY 2013 and then some. So any major movement would be in Sept 2013 (if at all). Thats my guess for now.

I think it's unwise to discount CO's comments. He has been almost true to his words. If he sees reasons to move forward again to 2010 in October, I am sure he has considered the backlog. While actual number cannot be known until end of this month, he would have gotten good idea about potential demand.

[abcx13]

I think it's unwise to discount CO's comments. He has been almost true to his words. If he sees reasons to move forward again to 2010 in October, I am sure he has considered the backlog. While actual number cannot be known until end to this month, he would have gotten good idea about potential demand.

True, but then he also thought he could move it much faster earlier this year due to EB1 spill down and reduced EB2-ROW usage. So go figure. But I485 inventory data at the end of next month should tell the real story. They still have another month to accept applications till May 2010.

[PD2008AUG25]

True, but then he also thought he could move it much faster earlier this year due to EB1 spill down and reduced EB2-ROW usage. So go figure. But I485 inventory data at the end of next month should tell the real story. They still have another month to accept applications till May 2010.

Well, he did move it much faster. He had warned of potential retrogression in summer. Regardless, his comments made in recent bulletin must have considered high EB1 usage, high EB2 demand and other factors. I think he fell short of his "dream" of moving dates into 2011, but he does walk the talk.

[bieber]

I think it's unwise to discount CO's comments. He has been almost true to his words. If he sees reasons to move forward again to 2010 in October, I am sure he has considered the backlog. While actual number cannot be known until end of this month, he would have gotten good idea about potential demand.
very good point

he almost said sorry in bulletin for movings dats backwards :)

[redsox2009]

2012 Jan inventory shows EB2 India inventory for 2008 as 3701 and for 2007 as 4703 (Aug-Dec), combined together it is not even 10K. Also I tried to fit this into Trackitt sample and look like 20K approval to EB2I is not accurate. Approvals are be less than 20K.

Based on the inventory, EB2 ROW applications till Jan 2012 are 1740.

I'm confident that they will move the dates forward in coming months once they preadjust the dates.

[qesehmk]

mind you that inventory wouldn't include cases that were not yet documentarily qualified?

so a lot of the 2008 cases that were filed but not yet documentarily qualified would not figure in that report.


2012 Jan inventory shows EB2 India inventory for 2008 as 3701 and for 2007 as 4703 (Aug-Dec), combined together it is not even 10K. Also I tried to fit this into Trackitt sample and look like 20K approval to EB2I is not accurate. Approvals are be less than 20K.

Based on the inventory, EB2 ROW applications till Jan 2012 are 1740.

I'm confident that they will move the dates forward in coming months once they preadjust the dates.

[Spectator]

2012 Jan inventory shows EB2 India inventory for 2008 as 3701 and for 2007 as 4703 (Aug-Dec), combined together it is not even 10K. Also I tried to fit this into Trackitt sample and look like 20K approval to EB2I is not accurate. Approvals are be less than 20K.

Based on the inventory, EB2 ROW applications till Jan 2012 are 1740.

I'm confident that they will move the dates forward in coming months once they preadjust the dates.redsox2009,

I think you will be unpleasantly surprised.

Firstly, the Trackitt approvals do suggest that level (or slightly higher). The derived ratios used to arrive at that figure also agrees with data published by USCIS regarding applications.

Perhaps more important is the figure supplied by Alan Lee in his article (http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/articles/a2012-03-27.html) after talking to CO in late February.

We didn't believe the figure he quoted for EB2 FY2011 approvals, but that has now proved to be correct. I have to give more credence to the other figures mentioned in the article.

As at the end of February 2012, he was told DOS had allocated 30k visas to EB2. The rate of allocation was running at 2k per week.

March actually showed higher approvals than February on Trackitt, but let's assume the 2k per week rate continued. EB2-IC was internally retrogressed as of March 23, 2012, so let's only assume 3 weeks worth of Demand for EB2 in March.

That still leaves a total of EB2 visas allocated at the end of March as a minimum of 36k.

If the EB2-IC numbers are lower, then EB2-non IC must be higher. Overall the number for EB2-IC appears to be in the range 20-22k at the end of March, with EB2-non IC in the 14-16k range.

If EB1 doesn't provide any additional numbers, then there might be as little as another 8-9k available to EB2 in the second half of the year for all Countries.

Given that EB2-non IC appears to have used around 30-33k in FY2011, I would call that worrying. It isn't surprising that CO has mentioned the possibility of EB2-IC becoming Unavailable and EB2-non IC having a Cut Off Date imposed.

If EB1 doesn't provide visas, or EB4 isn't unusually low again, it is as likely as not based on the numbers reported in Alan Lee's article.

[Transformer]

mind you that inventory wouldn't include cases that were not yet documentarily qualified?

so a lot of the 2008 cases that were filed but not yet documentarily qualified would not figure in that report.

Q, It's my understanding that inventory includes everything irrespective of pre-adjudicated or not. Only DD shows up documentarily qualified cases that are awaiting a VISA number. Please correct me if I am wrong.

I do agree that Jan inventory doesn't give complete picture of 2008 inventory. We may have to wait until USCIS publishes the next 485 invetory.

[Spectator]

Q, It's my understanding that inventory includes everything irrespective of pre-adjudicated or not. Only DD shows up documentarily qualified cases that are awaiting a VISA number. Please correct me if I am wrong.

I do agree that Jan inventory doesn't give complete picture of 2008 inventory. We may have to wait until USCIS publishes the next 485 invetory.Transformer,

I agree, except that the Inventory does not include "everything".

My understanding is that the Demand Data only includes Documentarily Qualified cases, both CP and AOS, that are in the Pending file.

It fails to register AOS cases approved when the PD is Current.


The USCIS Inventory only includes AOS cases where the underlying I-140 has been approved.

Notably, this means that concurrent filed cases, where the I-140 hasn't yet been approved are not reported. This tends to underestimate the numbers in the system for Categories/Countries that are Current or near to Current. As EB2-IC gets nearer to being Current, it will be a problem that affects them too. If processing times for I-485 decrease, the bigger this problem becomes.

There are gaps in both documents, which makes it difficult to reconcile the numbers contained in them.

To get a good picture for EB2-IC, I think we need to wait for the June Inventory. The March Inventory is likely to be lacking too many cases actually submitted, if the December Inventory is anything to judge by. If nothing else, there will be that suspicion.

[mbasense]

Is there any data to show how many of the GC's assigned came from a EB3-EB2 conversion? Also how this will factor into the next round of GC approvals in Q1'13. I am guessing there have been a significant number of 140 portings during the last 6 months, I wonder if that will affect our projections.

Apologies, if this has been discussed already...

[TeddyKoochu]

Jack,

Once again, thanks for reporting this. It appears the information in the articles by Alan Lee was very accurate.

I hadn't even been looking for the DHS Statistics because they usually come out much later than those from DOS (which still haven't been published). They are usually pretty close to the official DOS figures.

Usage By Category

EB1 ---- 25,251
EB2 ---- 66,831
EB3 ---- 37,216
EB4 ----- 6,701
EB5 ----- 3,340

Total - 139,339

It is an absolute shocker that EB3 received so few visas yet again.

Theoretical spillover from EB1/4/5 appears to be 24.6k. In reality, EB2 received 26.8k which is 2.2k more than was available. Effectively, EB2 robbed EB3 of visas.

Since EB2-C are known to have used at least 8.3k visas, that would make the EB2-I share about 25-26k for SOFAD of about 34k.

That would mean that EB2-ROW/M/P used very close to their 34.4k allocation. If they didn't, then SOFAD must be far higher, but there are limits, if the information about EB2-C is correct and taking into account that India received 33.6k EB visas in total across EB1 - EB5.

The higher SOFAD also indicates that there were a few thousand EB2-IC cases we either didn't know about, or Porting was much higher than anticipated.

Consular Processing in EB2 represented 2.5%, EB3 was 20.0% and CP was 10.7% overall for EB.

We will know when the official DOS Visa Statistics are published, which have the Country breakdown.

Breakdown of EB1

EB1A -------- 2,524 -- 23.67%
EB1B -------- 2,466 -- 23.12%
EB1C -------- 5,675 -- 53.21%

Dependents - 14,586 -- Ratio 2.38 approvals per Primary

Total ------ 25,251

That is very similar to the split for FY2010.

As it affects EB3, it is interesting that Mexico received 9,164 EB visas and Philippines 7,398.

Since neither Country uses huge numbers in other EB Categories, it suggests high usage in EB3, which would depress the numbers available to EB3-ROW.

South Korea again used a very high number of EB visas - 12.6k.

Spec, thanks this is a great post from you. Ball Park the SOFAD was estimated to be 30-32K so 34K is a fairly reasonable figure. Just like you I would attribute it to porting since last year the local office cases were added to the inventory it is impossible to calculate porting truly just by EB3 inventory reduction.
Coming to the Kazarian memo it slowed down things last year and we got the rewards for it in terms of the 12K extra SOFAD. It is not surprising at all that this year EB1 will use its full quota. There is a very simple analogy to it if there is an accident on an interstate highway temporarily traffic to 5 exits further down considering that as the GC line will be slow however as time elapses by even if that roadblock is there the volume will be same further on assuming that cases are not being denied en-masse just as in this way people would wiggle past that point and speed. With time attorneys would have also mastered the intricacies of the memo, the real impact of this memo is possibly to EB1-A cases and partly to Eb1B, however since more than 50% of EB1 is actually EB1C which is slowly rising the impact of the Kazarian memo will really go away.
Now coming to this year in Feb and March it is almost certain that the approval limits for EB2 I/C certainly exceeded the SOFAD because if we were to have 34 - 12 (EB1 no SOFAD) = 22K we have already had that kind of approvals this year. Congratulations to everyone who got approved and to everyone who got their EAD / AP's because if things were to be exactly calculated there is now way that the dates would have gone that far, considering the demand destruction at 0.75 – 0.8. Collateral damage is those individuals who had earlier PD's and are still waiting. This quarter will be dull for EB2 I/C as they will probably issue more EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals this is fairly evident on Trackitt. Talks of EB2 ROW retrogression are extreme. In the last quarter I believe we can get another 4-5K SOFAD from EB1, EB2 Row and EB5.

[nishant2200]

Teddy, thanks for your post.

One another point I was thinking of is, if EB2IC is made U temporarily, and then gates opened in the last quarter, maybe just last two months, to grab some pre-adjudicated inventory and apply the spare little bit from EB1,EB5,EB2ROW, it would favor a bit the original EB2IC folks vs porter folks. Because Porting would be essentially not possible during the periods of time EB2IC is U, and when the gates open for a little bit, it's easier to approve the pre-adjudicated apps, vs the porting apps, in which case there are two things: either the EB3 485 was already applied during the July 2007 fiasco, in which case even for porter, it's faster but still I would like to say slower than pre-adjudicated app, and another case is where there is no Eb3 485 yet as the PD of Eb3 was such that could not be applied during 2007.



Spec, thanks this is a great post from you. Ball Park the SOFAD was estimated to be 30-32K so 34K is a fairly reasonable figure. Just like you I would attribute it to porting since last year the local office cases were added to the inventory it is impossible to calculate porting truly just by EB3 inventory reduction.
Coming to the Kazarian memo it slowed down things last year and we got the rewards for it in terms of the 12K extra SOFAD. It is not surprising at all that this year EB1 will use its full quota. There is a very simple analogy to it if there is an accident on an interstate highway temporarily traffic to 5 exits further down considering that as the GC line will be slow however as time elapses by even if that roadblock is there the volume will be same further on assuming that cases are not being denied en-masse just as in this way people would wiggle past that point and speed. With time attorneys would have also mastered the intricacies of the memo, the real impact of this memo is possibly to EB1-A cases and partly to Eb1B, however since more than 50% of EB1 is actually EB1C which is slowly rising the impact of the Kazarian memo will really go away.
Now coming to this year in Feb and March it is almost certain that the approval limits for EB2 I/C certainly exceeded the SOFAD because if we were to have 34 - 12 (EB1 no SOFAD) = 22K we have already had that kind of approvals this year. Congratulations to everyone who got approved and to everyone who got their EAD / AP's because if things were to be exactly calculated there is now way that the dates would have gone that far, considering the demand destruction at 0.75 – 0.8. Collateral damage is those individuals who had earlier PD's and are still waiting. This quarter will be dull for EB2 I/C as they will probably issue more EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals this is fairly evident on Trackitt. Talks of EB2 ROW retrogression are extreme. In the last quarter I believe we can get another 4-5K SOFAD from EB1, EB2 Row and EB5.

[vizcard]

Is there any data to show how many of the GC's assigned came from a EB3-EB2 conversion? Also how this will factor into the next round of GC approvals in Q1'13. I am guessing there have been a significant number of 140 portings during the last 6 months, I wonder if that will affect our projections.

Apologies, if this has been discussed already...

Not sure what significant means but I would assume that the rate at which porting happens will stay the same.

[mbasense]

Not sure what significant means but I would assume that the rate at which porting happens will stay the same.

vizcard, by significant i assumed there would be enough portings to affect the projected original EB2 visa allocations... thanks for the reply

[goforgreen]

... Talks of EB2 ROW retrogression are extreme. In the last quarter I believe we can get another 4-5K SOFAD from EB1, EB2 Row and EB5.

Teddy thanks for your post. You always explain things in easy to understand terms.

Please continue to post in this forum, we need the support of gurus like you to continue on this journey till the destination is reached.

[TeddyKoochu]

H1B amendment is generally required only in case of 'material' change. Whether your move from one client to another client qualifies for 'material' change- your company lawyer should be able to guide you.

Sun that has been a grey area and also each case may be different, different attorneys and companies work on it differently. Recently the H1B form itself was amended to cater to H1B amendments. Most consulting companies just file a revised LCA but that may not be entirely correct as the term material change is itself very loosely defined and open to interpretation. Material change literally may mean changes in Salary or work description some people also believe location or client. All this is part of making life difficult for people on H1B especially for consultants full time employees would not have any problems. It all started in 2009 initially just in CSC when they would give extensions only till the term of the contract, then VSC started enforcing it. Then client letters were mandated. After that came the infamous E2E memo. My views maybe biased because Iam a consultant myself. Personally before getting GC I wanted to change my client as well but just wanted to stay away from this mess of filing H1B amendment because this in fact is virtually a new petition. Best to consult a good attorney on the individual case. Interestingly this is one of the reasons of demand destruction especially in the case of consultants because of so many hurdles to clear.

[suninphx]

Sun that has been a grey area and also each case may be different, different attorneys and companies work on it differently. Recently the H1B form itself was amended to cater to H1B amendments. Most consulting companies just file a revised LCA but that may not be entirely correct as the term material change is itself very loosely defined and open to interpretation. Material change literally may mean changes in Salary or work description some people also believe location or client. All this is part of making life difficult for people on H1B especially for consultants full time employees would not have any problems. It all started in 2009 initially just in CSC when they would give extensions only till the term of the contract, then VSC started enforcing it. Then client letters were mandated. After that came the infamous E2E memo. My views maybe biased because Iam a consultant myself. Personally before getting GC I wanted to change my client as well but just wanted to stay away from this mess of filing H1B amendment because this in fact is virtually a new petition. Best to consult a good attorney on the individual case. Interestingly this is one of the reasons of demand destruction especially in the case of consultants because of so many hurdles to clear.

T, agree to most of what you have said. Essentially we both are suggesting the same thing - consult attorney. :)

On DD - curiously waiting for some real numbers :)

While we are on topic - have there been any cases where therewas RFE at I485 stage because amendment was not filed? I remember there were multiple threads on trackitt where people got RFE about not amending LCA (have not seen one recently) ...but most people were through I guess...I could be wrong.

[TeddyKoochu]

T, agree to most of what you have said. Essentially we both are suggesting the same thing - consult attorney. :)

On DD - curiously waiting for some real numbers :)

While we are on topic - have there been any cases where therewas RFE at I485 stage because amendment was not filed? I remember there were multiple threads on trackitt where people got RFE about not amending LCA (have not seen one recently) ...but most people were through I guess...I could be wrong.

Thanks. coming to DD even by the inventory the OR for Nov filers was around 0.7, inventory beyond that point was really incomplete. I think if there were any issues even for Nov filers then the OR would be higher we definitely know that 5-10% people file late. So a centrist value for Nov filers would be .75. However demand destruction would be more for dec and jan filers when the perm issues really were at their peak. Now with so many cases approved it will be really hard to get to a correct figure because the last inventory was incomplete and he next one will not have the approved cases. The one qualitative indicator though that the dates have moved back to Aug 07 does seem to indicate that atleast for 2007 cases DD is not extreme something like .5 to .65. Overall I think probably .75 will be a good number to stay with even for Dec and Jan filers, let’s see though what the next inventory says.

[suninphx]

Thanks. coming to DD even by the inventory the OR for Nov filers was around 0.7, inventory beyond that point was really incomplete. I think if there were any issues even for Nov filers then the OR would be higher we definitely know that 5-10% people file late. So a centrist value for Nov filers would be .75. However demand destruction would be more for dec and jan filers when the perm issues really were at their peak. Now with so many cases approved it will be really hard to get to a correct figure because the last inventory was incomplete and he next one will not have the approved cases. The one qualitative indicator though that the dates have moved back to Aug 07 does seem to indicate that atleast for 2007 cases DD is not extreme something like .5 to .65. Overall I think probably .75 will be a good number to stay with even for Dec and Jan filers, let’s see though what the next inventory says.

OR of .75-.8 (including porting) sounds a reasonable estimate to me. I susptect though, there will be no connection (yet again) between actual number and what CO does next. And as long as it benefits more people we should happy.

[Spectator]

sportsfan,

Personally, I hate those spreadsheets that people have set up.

They add nothing that Trackitt can't do already and a lot of people don't enter their details on Trackitt itself.

The February spreadsheet may have nearly 600 entries, but Trackitt currently has 740, as you can see from the figures (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012) I maintain.

I agree with others that the overall OR appears to be in the 0.75 - 0.85 region.

[TeddyKoochu]

OR of .75-.8 (including porting) sounds a reasonable estimate to me. I susptect though, there will be no connection (yet again) between actual number and what CO does next. And as long as it benefits more people we should happy.

Sun .75 - 0.8 is a good figure porting inclusive. It’s very hard to separate porting and the figures anyway are not high. The way things are going they are shuttling between extremes as in too low or too high. Things will settle down to reality soon.

[TeddyKoochu]

Some thoughts:

1. DD might be high, but they might be REALLY out of the hard numbers, so even 1 approvable case in August would force the date to where it is right now. Unless some spillover comes in Q4, I think we can call this inning over.

2. As you say, after December 2007, dates should surge ahead because DD would be higher. CO himself says that he wants to move the dates close to May 2010 in FY 2013. It may not happen in October, but having a date in 2009 at the start of FY 2013 would not be surprising.

3. Can't we calculate the DD from the trackitt proportion of approved cases? Like x% of trackitters got approved, and that represents 10K (more or less)...so the total cases in the system = 10K*100/x. I however want to stress that this will be a high number, because mostly people with complicated cases are prevalent on trackitt. People who have straight cases rarely go there or enter their details.

On this front, the February filers have maintained quite an impressive spreadsheet to track their progress, and close to 600 people have made entries in it.

4. We will get much better numbers starting PDs 2009 onward because they will be reflected in inventory more accurately and eventually the demand date. 2008 numbers will always remain a little hazy.

Sports thanks for your detailed thoughts and great presentation. Trackitt representation has been something that has changed drastically over time. When Q started predictions in Jan 2010 the ratio was estimated to be at 26, the current numbers on Trackitt indicate that that ratio is well below 10 now. Another interesting fact is that if you go through Spec's postings this number keeps increasing till the specific date becomes current and cases get approved. Excitement is at such an unprecedented level that the numbers of people on Trackitt are now much more; recently they even had to upgrade their servers to cater to that. So Trackitt even though it is a great sample space should only be used for directional analysis, absolute ratios from there always do not give the correct picture. I made a prediction few months ago that EB1 will not give us any SOFAD this year at that time EB1 usage on Trackitt was at 4 times when compared with a similar period of time last year, probably there is some trigger within the EB1 community to register almost en masse, if we look at the Trackitt data of EB1C in particular it is 90% Indian while actual reality is EB1 India uses just 3K of EB1C (Eb1 India used 6K assuming 50% as EB1C) so the rest of the 17K comes from other countries. Right now for EB2 India people are there in almost unprecedented numbers on Trackitt in fact these figures are higher than any other period of time. So calculating demand destruction using Trackitt is a little hard, you are correct we will see stable figures for 2009 cases to calculate. I do agree that there will be higher demand destruction as we move through 2008 but that will not translate automatically into faster movement in 2008 simply because in 2008 still there are far more cases left than in 2007. Coming to DD itself the OR of .8 represents that starting from one perm which in theory could have been 2.05 485's resulted only in .8 historically this has been closer to 1. Going any lower will be very optimistic though nothing is impossible but as of now the consensus opinion is .75 and the ratio of 1 is history it does not apply to the current time phase.

[imdeng]

Spec - you are usually so proper and elegant and cautious in your prose that it was strange to see you using strong language. I agree that the spreadsheets do not provide much additional analysis beyond what is there in trackitt - but having the data in spreadsheet form does help in doing further analysis, draw charts/graphs, sort data etc. - so it does have some value.

I am amazed that you have been updating your new trackitt statistics every day! I think it is time for us to consider the hypothesis that there might be an army of people behind the username Spectator :-). You are helping a lot of people in deep distress - I hope you get back all you deserve and more for all the good Karma.


Personally, I hate those spreadsheets that people have set up.

[Spectator]

Spec - you are usually so proper and elegant and cautious in your prose that it was strange to see you using strong language. I agree that the spreadsheets do not provide much additional analysis beyond what is there in trackitt - but having the data in spreadsheet form does help in doing further analysis, draw charts/graphs, sort data etc. - so it does have some value.

I am amazed that you have been updating your new trackitt statistics every day! I think it is time for us to consider the hypothesis that there might be an army of people behind the username Spectator :-). You are helping a lot of people in deep distress - I hope you get back all you deserve and more for all the good Karma.imdeng,

LOL!!!

My concern is that some people, who would otherwise enter their data in the Tracker, don't bother because of those spreadsheets. Irritated would have been a better description.

It's just the one of me I'm afraid.

I agree with you about the spreadsheets and analysis. Even the very basic analysis tools disappeared when Trackitt went to a pay model for certain information. I import the data into Excel directly from the Trackitt Tracker, for that exact reason. I don't even have to type the information like the people maintaining the spreadsheets do.

I'm glad that at least one person looks at the data!

Thanks for the kind wishes.

[Mavrick]

Why this silence?? I guess retrogression has put everyone to hibernation :)

[vizcard]

Why this silence?? I guess retrogression has put everyone to hibernation :)

So what are your thoughts on all the matters discussed here ?

[qesehmk]

I think people are digesting the reverse movement. It's understandable since so much expectations were built in by all the forward movement and now suddenly the retrogression.

We saw all of this in 2007. This is quite similar to that. That time they moved dates to 2007 and then retro to Jan 2005 and then kept moving forward slowly. People were really hopeful and some got really lucky then. Some people with 2006 PDs got approved in 2007 itself. But overall the retrogression is there to ensure that people with older PDs get GCs first. Generally - not strictly.




Why this silence?? I guess retrogression has put everyone to hibernation :)

[qesehmk]

Spec i know you are very particular about not posting valueless things and so you delete what you think doesn't add value. But people value whatever you say anyway. So don't delete your own stuff ;)

p.s. - BTW I feel so clueless about the talk about spreadsheet and all. Where are these spreadsheets? Many times I wonder whether we should setup a tracker here that will give us better data on this forum. But the thought of modifying this forum software sends chills down my spine. This is such a beautiful software - I don't want to screw it up by some custom code.

[qesehmk]

Thanks. I have a different POV. I am all for multiple efforts and the need to have a variety of opinions so that we avoid a single point of failure. But honestly I do think that trackitt is fairly good and I can't think of how I would've done it in any better way.

I think what trackitt folks did not realize (perhaps until we started crunching numbers using their data) was that they were sitting on a goldmine of information. Although the info was not complete - it was still statitistically significant. We have benefitted a lot looking at trackitt data. I hope the basic database stays free for everybody to look at.


The Feb filers have maintained a Google doc that tracks the progress of their cases. They track this document through one of the threads. I see spec's point that maintaining parallel information is unnecessary (and counter productive too) when they could simply update their cases in trackitt itself, where spec and others run queries daily.

[Spectator]

Spec i know you are very particular about not posting valueless things and so you delete what you think doesn't add value. But people value whatever you say anyway. So don't delete your own stuff ;)

p.s. - BTW I feel so clueless about the talk about spreadsheet and all. Where are these spreadsheets? Many times I wonder whether we should setup a tracker here that will give us better data on this forum. But the thought of modifying this forum software sends chills down my spine. This is such a beautiful software - I don't want to screw it up by some custom code.I think I have just been told off and asked to report to the Headmaster! :) :o Am I going to be caned? :eek:

On the approvals front, the number of EB2 approvals to the end of March appear to make it quite difficult for CO to have stayed within the 54% limit, since EB2-WW and EB3 both seem to have quite normal approval levels. I don't think EB1 can be described as having "low" approvals. We also know a little bit about EB5, so only EB4 numbers are an entire mystery. I've tried all sorts of permutations and cannot reach a figure as low as 54%. Perhaps that is something to discuss. I wonder if that is why April has been quite so quiet.

PS I've restored my very uninteresting post.

PPS I too am finding the total lack of activity anywhere rather frustrating.

[imdeng]

Shouldn't USCIS be out with its final report of the visa office for FY2011 already? I thought Jan is the usual time for the report to come out - it is already six months since the FY ended.

No demand data, inventory data coming late, annual report coming late - USCIS is surely dragging its feet. Compare that to the jet-speed with which CO seems to be moving these days.

[qesehmk]

Spec -

Here is how I look at it.

For 2007 post April which is where bulk of 2012 visas have gone, 70% are approved (source trackitt & unupdated cases are accounted for).
70% of 9 months for EB2IC demand @2.5K = ~15.5K.

For 2008 30% are approved = 30% * 12 months * 2.5K = ~8.5K

So total EB2IC approvals are 24K.

Is it possible? May be since out of the 2 quarters supply of 70K (less 20K for EB3) = 50K. EB2ROW may have consumed 10K. So 16K between EB1 EB4 EB5 is not unimaginable.

Lets try to work the otherway round. If the above is true - then from 2007, we still have left 30% * 9 months * 2.5K = 6.75K. Similraly for 2008 we have left 70% * 12 months * 2.5K = 21K

So total to get to the end of 2008 = ~28K.

As you can see this whole game is hinged on 2.5K per month. So is that a true number anymore - although historically last few years it has held true? Lets see how low it could be.

Lets assume the worst. That EB5 consumed 2.5K. EB4 5K EB3 20K EB1 17K EB2ROW 12K = 56.5K.
That still leaves 13.5K approvals for EB2IC. Lets call the months EB2IC = XK

70% * 9 * X + 30% * 12 * X = 13.5K

This solves X = 1.4K per month.

So to hold the second scenario true, there has to be close to 40% demand destruction in EB2IC.

But then this scenario does not gel well with ROW becoming unavailable. So I am more gravitated towards first where ROW and/or EB1 are starved and EB2IC were given 24K during Q1 and Q2. But that means there is no demand destruction (or very little if any)

Which is why I firmly believe that Q1 2008 where we expect EB2IC backlog will land by Sep 2012.

Tear this apart!

On the approvals front, the number of EB2 approvals to the end of March appear to make it quite difficult for CO to have stayed within the 54% limit, since EB2-WW and EB3 both seem to have quite normal approval levels. I don't think EB1 can be described as having "low" approvals. We also know a little bit about EB5, so only EB4 numbers are an entire mystery. I've tried all sorts of permutations and cannot reach a figure as low as 54%. Perhaps that is something to discuss.

[redsox2009]

For 2007 post April which is where bulk of 2012 visas have gone, 70% are approved (source trackitt & unupdated cases are accounted for).
70% of 9 months for EB2IC demand @2.5K = ~15.5K.

For 2008 30% are approved = 30% * 12 months * 2.5K = ~8.5K

Don't you think 2.5K per month is a high number.

[qesehmk]

2.5k per month is a historically OK no for eb2ic. However it is possible that in the aftermath of fin crisis it has reduced. It may have reduced to 1.7k. But lets see - if we assume everybody else other than EB2IC consumed same as 2011 rate then for Q1+Q2 following consumption would exist:
EB1 = 12.5KK
EB4 = 3K
EB5 = 1.8K
EB3 = 20K (since backlogged)
EB2ROW = 13K


That leaves approx 20K for EB2IC.

so if
70% * 9 * X + 30% * 12 * X = 20K

It still comes in at 2K per month demand for EB2IC implying following remaining demand for 2007/08.
30%*9*2 + 70%*12*2 = ~22K.

Is it possible that EB2IC will receive 22K in H2 of 2012? It is not impossible if the same 2011 magic were to happen to EB2IC where overall EB2IC received 66K. But even then EB2IC consumed probably 32-36K implying ROW consumption of at least 20-24K.

So assuming ROW will consume same as prior FY and so does everybody else other than EB2IC implies that max additional SOFAD for EB2IC will be 0-14K MAX.

Now if we were to take CO at his word then we shouldn't expect much in H2 at all. Honestly - I think CO has concluded prematurely that there are no visas left. I do agree w Teddy that we should receive at least 5K - which will put us over Dec 2007. May be EB2IC will receive more ... but the likelyhood to clear beyond Q12008 are unrealistic IMHO.


Don't you think 2.5K per month is a high number.

[vizcard]

Now if we were to take CO at his word then we shouldn't expect much in H2 at all. Honestly - I think CO has concluded prematurely that there are no visas left. I do agree w Teddy that we should receive at least 5K - which will put us over Dec 2007. May be EB2IC will receive more ... but the likelyhood to clear beyond Q12008 are realistic IMHO.

Did you mean "unrealistic" there? Going beyond Mar 2008 is remote at best so while there is a chance (I'm getting visions of Dumb and Dumber here), I don't think its going to happen.

[qesehmk]

Thx. Corrected original post. I meant unrealistic.
Did you mean "unrealistic" there? Going beyond Mar 2008 is remote at best so while there is a chance (I'm getting visions of Dumb and Dumber here), I don't think its going to happen.

[qesehmk]

Kanmani

I don't have a specific data point - direct or indirect - that tells us about demand destruction. If you look at ROwMP consumption in 2011 - it was approx 2K per month. EB2IC has been nearly equivalent to EB2ROWMP total consumption. 2K instead of 2.5K constitutes 20% lower demand. 1.7K would mean 33% lower.

Now going back to % approvals for 2007 - I quoted trackitt numbers with some conservative padding. In reality trackitt only shows 60% approvals for Mar-Dec period. I didnot split further as April-Aug and Sep-Dec.

Q,

I couldn't find a single reason why you are not crossing the line to consider some change induced by the so called Demand Destruction in the historical monthly IC total of 2k to 2.5 K.

What is your opinion for this ---> 90% April to Aug + 70 % Sept to Dec 07 approved ?

[qesehmk]

30% pending apr-dec is not same as 30% pending apr-aug. For all we know apr-aug could be 0% pending.

U can get that % from trackitt. I didn't check.

Don't worry disagreements. That's a good way to learn better!!

If there are 30% unapproved between Apr to Aug 07 denotes 2400 to 3000 cases are pending . With no visa numbers available for IC for the remaining FY, Spillover from EB1 at the end of the year is kept imaginary , why would CO fix the retro date as Aug 15 2007? There is no logic in keeping 2.4K atleast unapproved and hanging while announcing ' IC unavailable'. Spec brought a wonderful article by Alan Lee ( Thank you) in that, CO somewhere says he was clearing the 2007 cases , in my opinion those words would mean he was trying to clear cases upto some date and that should be up to Aug 2007.

Q, this is all my opinion and you don't need to agree with me though :)

[redsox2009]

Again something doesn't seems to correct, Alan Lee reported saying he had chat with Mr.Oppenheim on Feb 24th, and Mr.O said he issued 7000 EB2 visas in Feb, and he had chance to move dates back in March and yet waited till April. Did he wait to see what are the final numbers or expecting to see the numbers go down.

[suninphx]

Assuming 70% and 30% are correct, I believe these figures (@2K/month INCLUDING PORTING). Demand destruction is somewhat higher, but people's desperation in porting is also higher. Hence I feel getting below 2K/month is unlikely in near future until EB3-I starts moving faster.

I agree that September 2012, PD will be in Q1 2008. The more interesting question is where it will be in October 2012, which is where I anticipate a big jump.

The moment random 485 approvals started coming in, the discussion about 'where dates would be at end of this FY' lost its relevance.

[pdfeb09]

The moment random 485 approvals started coming in, the discussion about 'where dates would be at end of this FY' lost its relevance.

That would be true but for the retrogression.

[vizcard]

The moment random 485 approvals started coming in, the discussion about 'where dates would be at end of this FY' lost its relevance.

I don't think its lost its relevance. In fact I think its just the opposite. Because there are "random" approvals, there is a bigger need to figure out consumption and where we can expect things to end. For eg, in a perfect world where approvals were sequential, it would land on x date. Now with random approvals, we will land on some date y (prior to x). Knowing y will help people make decisions in their lives.

[suninphx]

I don't think its lost its relevance. In fact I think its just the opposite. Because there are "random" approvals, there is a bigger need to figure out consumption and where we can expect things to end. For eg, in a perfect world where approvals were sequential, it would land on x date. Now with random approvals, we will land on some date y (prior to x). Knowing y will help people make decisions in their lives.

Figuring out consumption (and remaining demand) is always required irrespective of whether approvals are sequential or random. Point is - if approvals were reasonably sequential then projecting future date movement becomes easier and THAT helps to make better decisions. With random approvals lets say if date ends in Q1 2008 (or earlier) that does not tell me anything about the logic of future movements ( and hence making any decision making relatively difficult). Another drawback is we would not get any quality data in terms of OR etc etc.

[harapatta]

Team, like to know if I am on H1b (stamped till 2014) and wife on H4 what will be mine and her status once she start working on EAD ? Thanks

[vizcard]

Team, like to know if I am on H1b (stamped till 2014) and wife on H4 what will be mine and her status once she start working on EAD ? Thanks

You will continue to be H1 and she will be on "485 pending" status. Note that "485 pending" is not a status per se but an allowance by the USCIS to stay and work while your AOS is pending.

Bottom line is that you are both fine.

[vizcard]

With random approvals lets say if date ends in Q1 2008 (or earlier) that does not tell me anything about the logic of future movements ( and hence making any decision making relatively difficult).
I can tell you the logic of future movements right now. It will be sequential by PD date within the VB date range. How is that logic going to help you? What will help is knowing that it will be move to Mar 2008 by Sept, May 2008 by Oct, etc.. This is particularly true for folks in 2009 and 2010. Dates are hypothetical btw.


Another drawback is we would not get any quality data in terms of OR etc etc.
This is true but reality is that people care about getting approved not about getting accurate data. I know thats blasphemy on this site (particularly on this thread) but that is the reality. No calculation could have predicted the forward movement we saw over the last few months. I don't see ppl complaining that the calculations got screwed up or that we have no or bad data to support the movement.

Anyway.. we can agree to disagree on this matter.

[suninphx]

My Last on topic.

Sports: I am not complaning about larger window being opened or random approvals( I am one of beneficiary). IMO its not even in the context to what I answered. Thanks anyways for the detailed post :)

Viz: Exactly the point I am making. If the approvals are sequential then we can tell with greater confidence where the dates will be. With random approvals we dont know the density for a given period(unloess reliable data is published)

[harapatta]

First off thanks for your kind response...just one more question just in case if needed can she reclaim H4 status ?



"You will continue to be H1 and she will be on "485 pending" status. Note that "485 pending" is not a status per se but an allowance by the USCIS to stay and work while your AOS is pending.

Bottom line is that you are both fine. "

[bieber]

I remember people saying just filing for 485 and getting EAD/AP is good enough for them and they can wait for gc, I see many people (not all of them) complain now that somebody got approved with later PD than them and suspect the system. CO technically could stop the date in Q1 2008 and be ok with for this year and when he allowed everytone till Apr2010 file, I guess people should be ok with some random approvals.

[tatikonda]

RD: Jan 10th and PD : JULY 2008

[vizcard]

First off thanks for your kind response...just one more question just in case if needed can she reclaim H4 status ?



"You will continue to be H1 and she will be on "485 pending" status. Note that "485 pending" is not a status per se but an allowance by the USCIS to stay and work while your AOS is pending.

Bottom line is that you are both fine. "

Yes...as long as you maintain your H1 status.

[Spectator]

A little belatedly, since I have been away.

Progress on Applications Added to Trackitt Since October 2011

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 -- Mar 15 -- Mar 31 -- Apr 15 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 ----- 145 ----- 152 ----- 155 (+ 3 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 ----- 487 ----- 518 ----- 527 (+ 9 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 ----- 630 ----- 711 ----- 728 (+ 17 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 ----- 732 ----- 863 ----- 907 (+ 44 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 ----- 514 ----- 677 ----- 753 (+ 76 cases)
March VB ---- PD Jan 01 2010 to Apr 30 2010 ------------------------------------------------------- 72 ----- 133 ----- 172 (+ 39 cases)


Since internal retrogression was announced by DOS, there has been a very noticable reduction in EB2-I cases being added to Trackitt.

Hopefully, this is a temporary phenomenon, otherwise the figures for January-March/April VB will start to lose their value and become much more difficult to convert to real world numbers.


Breakdown Of Applications By USCIS Received Date


USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March ---- April -- Total
Pre FY2012 PD ------------- 11 -------- 11 -------- 8 -------- 7 --------- 4 -------- 5 -------- 0 ----- 46
October VB --------------- 124 -------- 16 -------- 2 -------- 6 --------- 5 -------- 2 -------- 0 ---- 155
November VB -------------------------- 452 ------- 57 -------- 8 --------- 5 -------- 5 -------- 0 ---- 527
December VB ------------------------------------- 605 ------- 83 -------- 26 ------- 12 -------- 2 ---- 728
January VB ------------------------------------------------- 756 ------- 129 ------- 15 -------- 7 ---- 907
February VB ------------------------------------------------------------ 649 ------- 96 -------- 8 ---- 753
March / April VB ------------------------------------------------------------------ 166 -------- 6 ---- 172

Total -------------------- 135 ------- 479 ------ 672 ------ 860 ------- 818 ------ 301 ------- 23 -- 3,288



USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March ---- April
Pre FY2012 PD --------- 23.91% ---- 23.91% --- 17.39% --- 15.22% ----- 8.70% --- 10.87% ---- 0.00%
October VB ------------ 80.00% ---- 10.32% ---- 1.29% ---- 3.87% ----- 3.23% ---- 1.29% ---- 0.00%
November VB ----------------------- 85.77% --- 10.82% ---- 1.52% ----- 0.95% ---- 0.95% ---- 0.00%
December VB ---------------------------------- 83.10% --- 11.40% ----- 3.57% ---- 1.65% ---- 0.27%
January VB ---------------------------------------------- 83.35% ---- 14.22% ---- 1.65% ---- 0.77%
February VB --------------------------------------------------------- 86.19% --- 12.75% ---- 1.06%
March / April VB --------------------------------------------------------------- 96.51% ---- 3.49%

[suninphx]

A little belatedly, since I have been away.

Progress on Applications Added to Trackitt Since October 2011

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 -- Mar 15 -- Mar 31 -- Apr 15 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 ----- 145 ----- 152 ----- 155 (+ 3 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 ----- 487 ----- 518 ----- 527 (+ 9 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 ----- 630 ----- 711 ----- 728 (+ 17 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 ----- 732 ----- 863 ----- 907 (+ 44 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 ----- 514 ----- 677 ----- 753 (+ 76 cases)
March VB ---- PD Jan 01 2010 to Apr 30 2010 ------------------------------------------------------- 72 ----- 133 ----- 172 (+ 39 cases)


Since internal retrogression was announced by DOS, there has been a very noticable reduction in EB2-I cases being added to Trackitt.

Hopefully, this is a temporary phenomenon, otherwise the figures for January-March/April VB will start to lose their value and become much more difficult to convert to real world numbers.


Breakdown Of Applications By USCIS Received Date


USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March ---- April -- Total
Pre FY2012 PD ------------- 11 -------- 11 -------- 8 -------- 7 --------- 4 -------- 5 -------- 0 ----- 46
October VB --------------- 124 -------- 16 -------- 2 -------- 6 --------- 5 -------- 2 -------- 0 ---- 155
November VB -------------------------- 452 ------- 57 -------- 8 --------- 5 -------- 5 -------- 0 ---- 527
December VB ------------------------------------- 605 ------- 83 -------- 26 ------- 12 -------- 2 ---- 728
January VB ------------------------------------------------- 756 ------- 129 ------- 15 -------- 7 ---- 907
February VB ------------------------------------------------------------ 649 ------- 96 -------- 8 ---- 753
March / April VB ------------------------------------------------------------------ 166 -------- 6 ---- 172

Total -------------------- 135 ------- 479 ------ 672 ------ 860 ------- 818 ------ 301 ------- 23 -- 3,288



USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March ---- April
Pre FY2012 PD --------- 23.91% ---- 23.91% --- 17.39% --- 15.22% ----- 8.70% --- 10.87% ---- 0.00%
October VB ------------ 80.00% ---- 10.32% ---- 1.29% ---- 3.87% ----- 3.23% ---- 1.29% ---- 0.00%
November VB ----------------------- 85.77% --- 10.82% ---- 1.52% ----- 0.95% ---- 0.95% ---- 0.00%
December VB ---------------------------------- 83.10% --- 11.40% ----- 3.57% ---- 1.65% ---- 0.27%
January VB ---------------------------------------------- 83.35% ---- 14.22% ---- 1.65% ---- 0.77%
February VB --------------------------------------------------------- 86.19% --- 12.75% ---- 1.06%
March / April VB --------------------------------------------------------------- 96.51% ---- 3.49%


Thanks Spec!!

So assuming below points

- 8% trackitt representation (taking into account increased interest due aggressive date movement)
- the total count eventually ends up around 4000 ( currently its 3288)

It appears that total number of cases for said period will be around 50-52 k. Is that fair statement Spec ?( purely based on the statistics above ).

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec!!

So assuming below points

- 8% trackitt representation (taking into account increased interest due aggressive date movement)
- the total count eventually ends up around 4000 ( currently its 3288)

It appears that total number of cases for said period will be around 50-52 k. Is that fair statement Spec ?( purely based on the statistics above ).suninphx,

I'm hesitant to answer, but here goes anyway.

I use slightly different numbers, but about 50k, give or take was where it appeared to be heading for EB2-I, if similar patterns had continued. That is rather higher than I was expecting, but that number would include some, but not all Porting cases. EB2-C would be an additional 7-8k cases to May 2010.

Unfortunately, the slow down has hit the very period (2008-2010 PD) where there was the greatest uncertainty and where there was the greatest need of good data. That might have gone some way towards answering the question of Demand Destruction during that period. If the figures don't recover, it will essentially be a guessing game.

If the Trackitt stats become unreliable because the ratios change within the same PD year, we are left with the USCIS Inventory.

I only treat that as semi-reliable and IMO it will only be when the Inventory is released in July (the one after next) that it will give the whole picture. I don't think the next one will be totally useful, although hopefully PD2008 should be more or less complete (less those already approved). After the last one, I certainly won't trust either the PD2009 or PD2010 figures in the Inventory due shortly.

It's a little frustrating personally, having put some effort into tracking the numbers. It may all come to nothing.

[abcx13]

If the Trackitt stats become unreliable because the ratios change within the same PD year, we are left with the USCIS Inventory.

I only treat that as semi-reliable and IMO it will only be when the Inventory is released in July (the one after next) that it will give the whole picture. I don't think the next one will be totally useful, although hopefully PD2008 should be more or less complete (less those already approved). After the last one, I certainly won't trust either the PD2009 or PD2010 figures in the Inventory due shortly.

It's a little frustrating personally, having put some effort into tracking the numbers. It may all come to nothing.

Hi Spec,

Just wondering why you treat the USCIS inventory as unreliable. Is it because of the approvals that have already been processed for 2007-2008? And why do you expect July inventory to be better? I thought most AoS applications are filed by the month after the applicable VB, i.e. May. More so in this case because of retrogression.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

Just wondering why you treat the USCIS inventory as unreliable. Is it because of the approvals that have already been processed for 2007-2008? And why do you expect July inventory to be better? I thought most AoS applications are filed by the month after the applicable VB, i.e. May. More so in this case because of retrogression.Eventually, the numbers may be OK, but the last Inventory showed that it takes weeks, if not a couple of months for new applications to be properly included in the Inventory.

So, for a long standing backlog, the figures might be representative, but not when it is in the process of building up. By July, hopefully, even the cases submitted in April, before retrogression starts, will also be included. For the April Inventory, there will be doubt about both February and March submission figures in my mind.

[qesehmk]

Spec - the way I deal with this is by trying to avoid or delay inferring actual numbers from such data. I like using relative numbers e.g. X% of 2007 are approved. So at least that fact is reasonable to begin with. Then you say what would be factor for 2007? May be 16. And that 16 needs to come from another source.

Another thing I try to do is - to try to arrive (or NOT!) at teh forecast from 2-3 different angles. If all of them converge then I get some comfort. If there are not many independent data sources available - atleast try to play scenarios with existing data and ask - doesn't this really make sense!!

But overall I agree - it is quite frustrating when you think about it!!




It's a little frustrating personally, having put some effort into tracking the numbers. It may all come to nothing.

[Spectator]

Spec - the way I deal with this is by trying to avoid or delay inferring actual numbers from such data. I like using relative numbers e.g. X% of 2007 are approved. So at least that fact is reasonable to begin with. Then you say what would be factor for 2007? May be 16. And that 16 needs to come from another source.

Another thing I try to do is - to try to arrive (or NOT!) at the forecast from 2-3 different angles. If all of them converge then I get some comfort. If there are not many independent data sources available - at least try to play scenarios with existing data and ask - doesn't this really make sense!!

But overall I agree - it is quite frustrating when you think about it!!Q,

Thanks for the comforting reply.

It was for the reasons you specify that I said I was hesitant to reply to suninphx in the first place. Although I might have a figure in mind internally, I try not to be prescriptive about it and delay putting a hard figure to it. I prefer to publish the underlying data so that people can make their own analysis and mind up.

The approach you outline is exactly what I do, particularly the multi-angle approach. The ratios affect not only application numbers, but approvals as well, so this interplay is quite revealing. The USCIS reports have been useful in narrowing down the range as well. I too play with different scenarios to see if they fit what I call the "Reasonableness Test".

The historical Trackitt ratio clearly changed appreciably with the rapid forward movement of Cut Off Dates. I would surmise that it both energized people and they had hopes of being approved fairly quickly.

I have been able to deal with having a historical ratio pre backlog and a new ratio post backlog. The multi-angle approach helps in raising the confidence level in that new number.

The potential problem is the introduction of a new post backlog ratio. Since it has happened part way through the build up of the new backlog, there is no evidence as to what it might be. Possibly, with time, it will become apparent as the real numbers can be confirmed or deduced from other sources. In the meantime, it is an annoying inconvenience.

Thanks again Q.

[redsox2009]

Note from May Visa Bulletin

"Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer."

Looks like VO May predictions will hold good till June/July and they are not sure how much movement will happen in late summer of this year.

[suninphx]

Spec, its enormous amount of effort in our perspective, as imdeng says its worth an army. People would say nobody bothers numbers but it is not true for all, many of us have our own mind game and for that your presentation plays a vital role . Thank you.

Agree with Kanmani.

Thanks again Spectator.

[kd2008]

Spec,

Just sharing my perspective. Since the July 2007 fiasco, USCIS was repeatedly accused of tardy processing and backlogs. So it made an effort to document its progress through the processing times and the dashboard.uscis.gov.

But the last couple of months have shown how good they have become at processing. So they are not bothering to update their data.

This makes the prediction effort that much more difficult.

Earlier we could triangulate from USCIS inventory, demand data and trackitt trends. Now we are just relying on trackitt trends.

[imdeng]

Regarding Spec's GC situation - my take is that Spec is doing all of this just for the love of the work/analysis he is doing. He has no skin in the game. It will not surprise me one bit to know that Spec is first, a citizen or even a resident of another country altogether; and second - is not from India despite the EB2I focus of this forum.

I do not want to speculate much on Spec's identity and affiliation since he/she clearly does not wish us to do so. I do hope to one day buy him/her a beer (or a case of beer, lifetime supply of beer... even that will not be enough) for a heartfelt Thank You.


Spec, its enormous amount of effort in our perspective, as imdeng says its worth an army. People would say nobody bothers numbers but it is not true for all, many of us have our own mind game and for that your presentation plays a vital role . Thank you. ( My mind voice says you are yet to grab a GC . )

[qesehmk]

No worries. Trust you are doing well!!

What you say about refraining from being prescriptive is understandable. I like to provide some dates since it helps people put some stake in the ground. But most of us on this blog are similar in the sense that we don't try to be overoptimistic or over pessimistic. We try to err slightly on the side of being conservative.

p.s. - Sorry for my late response ... just upto my eyeballs in allegators.


Q,

Thanks for the comforting reply.

It was for the reasons you specify that I said I was hesitant to reply to suninphx in the first place. Although I might have a figure in mind internally, I try not to be prescriptive about it and delay putting a hard figure to it. I prefer to publish the underlying data so that people can make their own analysis and mind up.

The approach you outline is exactly what I do, particularly the multi-angle approach. The ratios affect not only application numbers, but approvals as well, so this interplay is quite revealing. The USCIS reports have been useful in narrowing down the range as well. I too play with different scenarios to see if they fit what I call the "Reasonableness Test".

The historical Trackitt ratio clearly changed appreciably with the rapid forward movement of Cut Off Dates. I would surmise that it both energized people and they had hopes of being approved fairly quickly.

I have been able to deal with having a historical ratio pre backlog and a new ratio post backlog. The multi-angle approach helps in raising the confidence level in that new number.

The potential problem is the introduction of a new post backlog ratio. Since it has happened part way through the build up of the new backlog, there is no evidence as to what it might be. Possibly, with time, it will become apparent as the real numbers can be confirmed or deduced from other sources. In the meantime, it is an annoying inconvenience.

Thanks again Q.

[TheTexan]

Hello friends,

Just wanted to get your thoughts - Every day I check my case status on USCIS website and find it hard to believe that the last updated date for 485 is the same as the received date. My wife and I have our EADs but I was expecting what's known as soft LUD (not sure of the correct term) by now. Is this a cause of worry? Please advise as this site is my only source other than my lawyer.

Thanks,

[Pundit Arjun]

Hello friends,

Just wanted to get your thoughts - Every day I check my case status on USCIS website and find it hard to believe that the last updated date for 485 is the same as the received date. My wife and I have our EADs but I was expecting what's known as soft LUD (not sure of the correct term) by now. Is this a cause of worry? Please advise as this site is my only source other than my lawyer.

Thanks,

Texan,
Its the same for me too. This should not be a cause for concern. You would have noticed that the online system updates are sometimes delayed or for some the cases are not available online.
I believe your service center is TSC, do check the processing times and if your application has been pending past the processing time, you can call them up and talk to them.
If your intention was to check with others who have RD's in and around your RD, I would ask you to please update your signature with your AOS application information.

[TheTexan]

Thankx Pundit,

When I select processing times for TSC - I 485 - Employment based....it shows June 2, 2011. What does that mean?

[vizcard]

Thankx Pundit,

When I select processing times for TSC - I 485 - Employment based....it shows June 2, 2011. What does that mean?

those processing times are outdated. there is usually an "as of:" date. But what June 2, 2011 means is that they are operating above target processing times (4 months) and are processing cases with RD around June 2, 2011 (which we know its not true). Wait till mid-May before you call them.

Im a Jan filer too albeit much later in the month and i dont have any changes to the LUD either. No cause to worry.

[idiotic]

Unfortunately, the slow down has hit the very period (2008-2010 PD) where there was the greatest uncertainty and where there was the greatest need of good data. That might have gone some way towards answering the question of Demand Destruction during that period. If the figures don't recover, it will essentially be a guessing game.



Spec,

Anyway you can use H1B filing data to account for your demand destruction figures.

H-1B Applications Approved by USCIS [79], [80], [81], [82], [83], [84], [85]
Year Initial Renewals+Extensions Total
1999 134,411 na na
2000 136,787 120,853 257,640
2001 201,079 130,127 331,206
2002 103,584 93,953 197,537
2003 105,314 112,026 217,340
2004 130,497 156,921 287,418
2005 116,927 150,204 267,131
2006 109,614 161,367 270,981
2007 120,031 161,413 281,444
2008 109,335 166,917 276,252
2009 86,300 127,971 214,271
2010 76,627 116,363 192,990

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1B_visa#Quotas_and_changes_in_quotas

[krishnav]

Hello Gurus,

I have a query. This is kind of an urgent situation...so I had t post it here. I will move this to another thread once I receive an answer.

My question is if a person is currently working for Firm A and applied for GC through Firm B (a consulting firm), when he recieves his EAD, if he went back to Firm B (on H1) and works as contractor with Firm A (his employer before he received EAD), would it be an issue as far as H1 Transfer or GC is concerned.

Please advise.
Thanks.

[vizcard]

45 hrs without a post... incredible.. .i suppose everyone had a great weekend.

[imdeng]

This is interesting data - clearly shows the decline in number of H1Bs approved. Although it does seem like that the H1B market has improved for FY2013 quota. USCIS has released H1B Cap Count numbers and the numbers this year so far are running ahead of last couple years. Of course, it is not even close to the frenzy of the lottery years.

Some badly made graphs and simplistic analysis on the new H1B Cap Count numbers: http://redbus2us.com/h1b-visa-2013-cap-count-updates-by-uscis/

Spec,

Anyway you can use H1B filing data to account for your demand destruction figures.

H-1B Applications Approved by USCIS [79], [80], [81], [82], [83], [84], [85]
Year Initial Renewals+Extensions Total
1999 134,411 na na
2000 136,787 120,853 257,640
2001 201,079 130,127 331,206
2002 103,584 93,953 197,537
2003 105,314 112,026 217,340
2004 130,497 156,921 287,418
2005 116,927 150,204 267,131
2006 109,614 161,367 270,981
2007 120,031 161,413 281,444
2008 109,335 166,917 276,252
2009 86,300 127,971 214,271
2010 76,627 116,363 192,990

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1B_visa#Quotas_and_changes_in_quotas

[tatikonda]

May be it is fading bill.. but still having on hopes on HR 3012 Bill, which eliminates per country Quota.

[kd2008]

Spec, Q, Teddy,

The trackitt trends till Dec. 2008 seems to be maturing i.e. fewer cases being added to trackitt. Given this fact, would it be a good time to calculate the demand destruction from Jan 2008 to Dec 2008. Just glancing at the the numbers, and assuming trackitt count represents 8 to 10% of the total filings, demand destruction seems to be inline with what Spec had estimated earlier, giving an OR of 0.7 or so.

Other members, please share your thoughts.

Spec's data can be found here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012&p=22277#post22277

[Jonty Rhodes]

A trackitt member with a profile name "sneijder" posted this message.

Approx 80,000 EB2 I/C applications filed in the last 4 months

These are I485 numbers (including dependents). This is as per my lawyer who is with a very big reputed firm. She did mention it is an unofficial estimate though but said that her sources in USCIS and the State department confirmed it. This is just for your information.


http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/996228771/approx-80-000-eb2-i-c-applications-filed-in-the-last-4-months

I am not saying this is true but just found it and thus posting it. These many applications really feel unreal to me and I am not ready to believe that 80,000 applications from EB2IC have been filed in last 4 months. If Gurus feel that this post should not be entertained further, please feel free to remove it.

[Mavrick]

I have to agree with sportsfan33. By start of next FY, we should have some where 30K-35K pending I-485's.

[abcx13]

I have imported PERM data from http://www.flcdatacenter.com/ and applied the below filters to get these numbers

CASE_STATUS = "CERTIFIED" OR "CERTIFIED-EXPIRED"
and
CATEGORY = Level II
and
COUNTRY_OF_CITIZENSHIP = "INDIA' OR 'CHINA"

This is a post from a trackitt user in response to sportsfan33's question in this thread - http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/996228771/approx-80-000-eb2-i-c-applications-filed-in-the-last-4-months

I'm pretty sure the level filter he used is wrong as I think there are four wage levels and I think that's what this refers to. And none of these correspond to EB2/3 classification anyway which is only determined at I140 stage. But while doing my PERM my attorney mentioned that for EB2, ONet Zone Level >= 4 is required. I belive this also corresponds to some sort of SVP Level. I haven't downloaded the data from the fldc and I don't have MS Access anyway, but I'm wondering if one of you guys can filter by ONet Zone Level or SVP level to nail down the EB2 to EB3 ratio in PERM applications more precisely. Will cut down one more variable. We might need to scrape and create a cross-referenced list of ONet Job codes with the Zone Level if the ONet Job code is available in the fldc data dump.

Thoughts?

[abcx13]

This is a post from a trackitt user in response to sportsfan33's question in this thread - http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/996228771/approx-80-000-eb2-i-c-applications-filed-in-the-last-4-months

I'm pretty sure the level filter he used is wrong as I think there are four wage levels and I think that's what this refers to. And none of these correspond to EB2/3 classification anyway which is only determined at I140 stage. But while doing my PERM my attorney mentioned that for EB2, ONet Zone Level >= 4 is required. I belive this also corresponds to some sort of SVP Level. I haven't downloaded the data from the fldc and I don't have MS Access anyway, but I'm wondering if one of you guys can filter by ONet Zone Level or SVP level to nail down the EB2 to EB3 ratio in PERM applications more precisely. Will cut down one more variable. We might need to scrape and create a cross-referenced list of ONet Job codes with the Zone Level if the ONet Job code is available in the fldc data dump.

Thoughts?

Ok, this page (http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx) indicates that the SOC Job Code is indeed mentioned. So if we can create a cross-reference of this to the Zone level, import that into access from a text file and look for SOC job codes with Zone >= 4, I think we should have a better estimate of EB2 PERMs. Not all Zone 4s necessarily correspond to EB2 I think but we'll still have a better estimate. Does somebody else know for sure how to connect the SOC job zone to EB2/EB3 better than me? Our attorney was quite clear that one needs to be in Job Zone >= 4 to require a min of Masters degree otherwise they will get audited that the position exceeds typical job requirements and likely be denied. So that's where I'm coming from...

[kd2008]

Ok, this page (http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx) indicates that the SOC Job Code is indeed mentioned. So if we can create a cross-reference of this to the Zone level, import that into access from a text file and look for SOC job codes with Zone >= 4, I think we should have a better estimate of EB2 PERMs. Not all Zone 4s necessarily correspond to EB2 I think but we'll still have a better estimate. Does somebody else know for sure how to connect the SOC job zone to EB2/EB3 better than me? Our attorney was quite clear that one needs to be in Job Zone >= 4 to require a min of Masters degree otherwise they will get audited that the position exceeds typical job requirements and likely be denied. So that's where I'm coming from...

Please read http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations&p=5620#post5620

Spec has explained the process very well.

Moreover look at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Determination-Data-Analysis

This explains the EB3/EB2 split.

Job requirement alone decides if it applies to EB2 or EB3. The beneficiary has to meet this requirement. The EB2/EB3 category is determined by USCIS.

[Spectator]

I am sure many of you will already have seen this.

From Ron Gotcher http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17014&p=71571#post71571


AILA just reported the following:


China-Mainland Born and India EB-2 FY2012 Annual Limit Reached

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12042360 (posted Apr. 23, 2012)"

AILA has confirmed with the State Department that the annual limit in the EB-2 category for China-mainland born and India has been reached. The State Department notified USCIS on April 11, 2012, that no further visas for those categories would be authorized. This is the “additional corrective action” that was forecast as a possibility in Section D of the May 2012 Visa Bulletin (AILA Doc. No. 12040652). USCIS will continue to accept adjustment applications based upon cut-off dates published in the April and May Visa Bulletins. However, requests from USCIS service centers and field offices for visas in the EB-2 category aliens chargeable to China-mainland born or India will be retained by DOS for authorization in FY2013, beginning on October 1, 2012.

This means that the EB1 and Worldwide EB2 demand are sufficient to use up all remaining EB2 visas. India and China are only guaranteed 2,800 EB2 visas per year. The balance of the 30,000 or so EB2 visas that are issued to applicants from India and China each year are those that are left over from Worldwide EB2 (after receiving a falldown of EB1 numbers). With the visas already issued to applicants chargeable to India and China well above the statutory guarantees, the unavailability of further "left over" numbers from Worldwide EB2 means that no additional visas will be issued to China and India EB2 applicants this year.

I assume this means that the June VB will show EB2-IC as Unavailable.

The fact DOS has announced this so early probably means there are more than enough EB1 and EB2-WW cases to use up the remaining visas, so the imposition of a Cut Off Date for EB2-WW looks far more likely at some point towards the end of the FY.

[imdeng]

Quite a sad state of affairs. I hope the inventory report or demand data comes soon that gives us some idea of how much EB2IC inventory is lying there.


I assume this means that the June VB will show EB2-IC as Unavailable.

The fact DOS has announced this so early probably means there are more than enough EB1 and EB2-WW cases to use up the remaining visas, so the imposition of a Cut Off Date for EB2-WW looks far more likely at some point towards the end of the FY.

[qesehmk]

It's unfortunate but looks more plausible than not.

I am sure many of you will already have seen this.

From Ron Gotcher http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17014&p=71571#post71571



I assume this means that the June VB will show EB2-IC as Unavailable.

The fact DOS has announced this so early probably means there are more than enough EB1 and EB2-WW cases to use up the remaining visas, so the imposition of a Cut Off Date for EB2-WW looks far more likely at some point towards the end of the FY.

[vizcard]

2nd half of 2007 PDs and Jan filers will feel the impact of this alert more than anyone else. I think Feb filers will still probably get greened on the same timetable as before. But this will delay projected approval dates for 2nd half of 2007 and 2008 PDs by 6-9 months.

[TeddyKoochu]

@Jonty Rhodes / @sportsfan33 - This figure of 80K is indeed top of the line, it is way up. Sports my estimate maybe slightly different from yours it would be 1800 per month porting inclusive. I would expect the next inventory to show 35K EB2 I/C backlog.

@kd2008 – Trackitt counts would stabilize for the time being as excitement would die down for EB2 I/C folks however these numbers would probably rise again once the approval season starts.

It is for categories like Eb2 ROW that the excitement has stayed kind of same where direct Trackitt ratio’s for the previous year’s work well. The OR range of 0.7 – 0.8 is a very good working range going forward.

@Spec – Thanks for posting. The news is really sad, earth shattering to PWMB’s who missed on approval this time and to those with a 2007 PD and missing out, I consider myself lucky having made it in Mid March.

Congratulations really to everyone approved and to everyone who got their chance to file for their 485’s. Really heartbreaking for those who missed out especially those having a 2007 PD and especially some of the PWMB cases.

This kind of reaffirms that atleast the 5.6K EB2 I/C cap was a kind of buffer that was being used, I believe these many numbers were allocated in Oct itself as we could not have had any kind of spillover in Oct and by Mar 23rd the realization had dawned that EB1 will be giving no SOFAD and EB2 ROW is going at the same level last year so they applied the emergency brakes.

Overall this year is a huge disappointment as in the dates just moving from 15th Apr 2007 to 15 Aug 2007 with the huge swing to May 2010. There are possibly 5K filers with PD prior to 01-JAN-2008 still left in the system. The current news kind of reaffirms some of the older predictions if everything had been totally orderly then the dates would have barely crossed 2007.

[pdfeb09]

@Jonty Rhodes / @sportsfan33 - This figure of 80K is indeed top of the line, it is way up. Sports my estimate maybe slightly different from yours it would be 1800 per month porting inclusive. I would expect the next inventory to show 35K EB2 I/C backlog.

@kd2008 – Trackitt counts would stabilize for the time being as excitement would die down for EB2 I/C folks however these numbers would probably rise again once the approval season starts.

It is for categories like Eb2 ROW that the excitement has stayed kind of same where direct Trackitt ratio’s for the previous year’s work well. The OR range of 0.7 – 0.8 is a very good working range going forward.

@Spec – Thanks for posting. The news is really sad, earth shattering to PWMB’s who missed on approval this time and to those with a 2007 PD and missing out, I consider myself lucky having made it in Mid March.

Congratulations really to everyone approved and to everyone who got their chance to file for their 485’s. Really heartbreaking for those who missed out especially those having a 2007 PD and especially some of the PWMB cases.

This kind of reaffirms that atleast the 5.6K EB2 I/C cap was a kind of buffer that was being used, I believe these many numbers were allocated in Oct itself as we could not have had any kind of spillover in Oct and by Mar 23rd the realization had dawned that EB1 will be giving no SOFAD and EB2 ROW is going at the same level last year so they applied the emergency brakes.

Overall this year is a huge disappointment as in the dates just moving from 15th Apr 2007 to 15 Aug 2007 with the huge swing to May 2010. There are possibly 5K filers with PD prior to 01-JAN-2008 still left in the system. The current news kind of reaffirms some of the older predictions if everything had been totally orderly then the dates would have barely crossed 2007.

Would this probably mean NO(or negligible) movement until July 2013?

Looks like this year's movement is over, and there will be NO QSP applied FY2013 (predictable EB2I/C demand and unpredictable ROW/EB1,4,5 will prevent CO from venturing into the QSP territory again).

Oh the looooooooooong wait.. !!

[goforgreen]

This news from AILA confirms that there will not be any spillover in fourth quarter of 2012. Wait begins for 2013, dont know if dates will move in Oct or only in Q1 2013.

[pdfeb09]

I don't understand why they won't use QSP in FY 2013. Remember the USCIS's plight to renew thousands of EAD/APs for free. Unless the EB2-ROW community raises hell, I don't see why not QSP.


I just think that CO would not be worried about USCIS having to renew the EAD/AP for free. QSP could, on the other hand, leave him red faced in case EB2Row runs out of visas before the countries in it reach their limits. This scenario could very well materialize this time and CO would want to avoid a repeat.



Judging from this year, it seems that the EB1 backlog from last year slid into this year. Taking this 2 year window as the guideline, I think they will again create a substantial spillover from EB1 next year, and they might even engineer the QSP to use this spillover throughput the year. Nothing is really out of question. They have a 6 to 9 month of processing window at their disposal, and they can do any maneuvers in this window. Let's wait and watch.

I certainly hope so. You are probably right about the EB1 demand sliding in from the past year - a scenario unlikely for FY 2013. I too hope that we get a good spillover from EB1 next year.However, this will play out towards the end of FY2013 rather than up front.


One advantage I see for EB2-IC filers as a result of 'U' is that the concurrent filing from the porters will stop, and they will have to file only when the dates open up. That delays their filing time by x months, so 250 (porters per month) * x = additional visas EB2-IC gets in the short term (beginning of FY).

I don't know. Delaying the filing time for porters will hardly affect their place in the queue unless they are not ready to file when their dates are current. It will not affect the number of visas they are likely to consume in a given period of time.

Sorry if I am being too pessimistic... !

[tatikonda]

I got RFE for the Dependent, my Dependent was on H4 when she came here in 2006 and in nov 2008 to apr 2009 she was on H1 and bcs of illness she did not do the job and the H1 was canceled in Apr 2009, but in 2010 1040 tax return her occupation shows software engineer and in G-385 says she is Housewife. please give me suggestions how to respond for this RFE.

Actual RFE
"In your Form G-325 A you declare that you have not engaged in any employment in the US from Jan 2007 to present, however also as evidence in support of your application, you submit a copy of your 2010 form 1040, US individual Income Tax Return which shows your (the spouse) occupation to have been that of a software engineer."

[pdfeb09]

.... My lawyer did tell me ..... most of 2008 and 2009 filers (in our company) should get their GCs before March 2013........

I would absolutely love it if this happens. I am sure everyone here would love it too.

[goforgreen]

we have two extreme views here, one says 2007 will be cleared only in July 13 and another says all of 2008 and 2009 will be cleared by Mar 13. Dont know if I should go with the pessimistic one and be prepared for the worst or the optimistic one and have a risk of feeling dissapointed when it does not happen.

I guess I'll take the index fund approach of not reacting to market news.

[Mavrick]

" 2007 will be cleared only in July 13" is not pessimistic, it is rather incorrect in my opinion. Also, We have to trust CO's word in May 2012 Visa Bulletin and he did say that he will try to clear most of the cases until April 2010 by FY2013 - So far he has walked his talk - We can at least hope that he is 80% right.

[goforgreen]

" 2007 will be cleared only in July 13" is not pessimistic, it is rather incorrect in my opinion. Also, We have to trust CO's word in May 2012 Visa Bulletin and he did say that he will try to clear most of the cases until April 2010 by FY2013 - So far he has walked his talk - We can at least hope that he is 80% right.

CO only said efforts will be made to bring the dates back to May 2010. He has not said he will try to clear cases till Apr 2010 in FY 2013

[Mavrick]

CO only said efforts will be made to bring the dates back to May 2010. He has not said he will try to clear cases till Apr 2010 in FY 2013

I don't want to get into argument but here is the exact quote from CO. If he is 80% correct, most of us will be happy :)

"Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer. "

[murali83]

@Jonty Rhodes / @sportsfan33 - This figure of 80K is indeed top of the line, it is way up. Sports my estimate maybe slightly different from yours it would be 1800 per month porting inclusive. I would expect the next inventory to show 35K EB2 I/C backlog.

Overall this year is a huge disappointment as in the dates just moving from 15th Apr 2007 to 15 Aug 2007 with the huge swing to May 2010. There are possibly 5K filers with PD prior to 01-JAN-2008 still left in the system. The current news kind of reaffirms some of the older predictions if everything had been totally orderly then the dates would have barely crossed 2007.

Teddy and other gurus here,

I am a little confused, Last year ended with April 15, 2007 and if things had gone orderly we would have ended somewhere near Dec 15, 2007 (approx). Thats 8 months worth movement and I guess there is some consensus that overall 20K visas have been issued to EB2 I-C this year. So doesn't that validate the 2500 per month. I understand that demand might be lower in second half of 2008 and 2009, so my question is if the 1800 is an average number or is there something else I should add in my calculations.

[suninphx]

Teddy and other gurus here,

I am a little confused, Last year ended with April 15, 2007 and if things had gone orderly we would have ended somewhere near Dec 15, 2007 (approx). Thats 8 months worth movement and I guess there is some consensus that overall 20K visas have been issued to EB2 I-C this year. So doesn't that validate the 2500 per month. I understand that demand might be lower in second half of 2008 and 2009, so my question is if the 1800 is an average number or is there something else I should add in my calculations.

You need to probably factor in backlog carried forward from last FY and PWMBs. (and porting)

[feedmyback]

Some with PD 26 Feb 2009 got his GC approved. Posted this morning!! Not sure if anyone already shared this here....

http://www.trackitt.com/member/matrixminder

[drysnow]

Gurus, Pandits Please advise:
I am a 2007 EB2I Nov PD, filed in 2011 Dec 1st. No movement in there.
Now my earlier EB2 I140 from 2004 Dec got approved (after 2 appeals each 2 to 3 years and lot of stress and strain), This is also from the same employer same category.
Is there a possibility that it will be linked to my 485 automatically or do I go through the lawyer?
The point of concern is I have to pay the full fee for my kid who is going to college this September (They are treating us as non residents though we lived in the same state for 12 years). If I get GC before august I would save a ton of money in the fee and scholarship. We already had to decline some offers from the best colleges due to our status.

[Kanmani]

Gurus, Pandits Please advise:
I am a 2007 EB2I Nov PD, filed in 2011 Dec 1st. No movement in there.
Now my earlier EB2 I140 from 2004 Dec got approved (after 2 appeals each 2 to 3 years and lot of stress and strain), This is also from the same employer same category.
Is there a possibility that it will be linked to my 485 automatically or do I go through the lawyer?
The point of concern is I have to pay the full fee for my kid who is going to college this September (They are treating us as non residents though we lived in the same state for 12 years). If I get GC before august I would save a ton of money in the fee and scholarship. We already had to decline some offers from the best colleges due to our status.

They are not linked automatically.

If the adjudicator finds two Eb2 I-140s with different PDs in your file, he would choose the earlier date as PD for getting the visa number. But, before doing that he may shoot an RFE to get confirmation from you to choose between the jobs.

Having assumed that your case is already pre-adjudicated , you may need one EVL again and attorney's help to kick start your old PD.

[veni001]

This news from AILA confirms that there will not be any spillover in fourth quarter of 2012. Wait begins for 2013, don't know if dates will move in Oct or only in Q1 2013.

IMHO,that will depend on EB1 & EB2 ROW demand at the end of FY2012.

Only way EB2IC can see significant forward movement in Q1 of FY2013 if and only if documentarily qualified demand for EB1&EB2ROW is less than the available VISA numbers in a given quarter.

[openaccount]

Approvals for EB2ROW/EB1/A/B/C from trackitt

------------------OCT10-Sept11-----OCT10-APR11------OCT11-APR12
EB2-ROW--------539-----------------289-----------------269
EB1A--------------67-------------------37------------------55
EB1B--------------89-------------------51------------------76
EB1C-------------100-------------------45-----------------190

From above numbers we can see huge increase in EB1A/B/C approvals. EB2ROW approvals are pretty much at same level at this time of last year. If this approval trend continues EB1 might consume all spill over from EB4/EB5 for remainder of 2012.

[Spectator]

Approvals for EB2ROW/EB1/A/B/C from trackitt

------------------OCT10-Sept11-----OCT10-APR11------OCT11-APR12
EB2-ROW--------539-----------------289-----------------269
EB1A--------------67-------------------37------------------55
EB1B--------------89-------------------51------------------76
EB1C-------------100-------------------45-----------------190

From above numbers we can see huge increase in EB1A/B/C approvals. EB2ROW approvals are pretty much at same level at this time of last year. If this approval trend continues EB1 might consume all spill over from EB4/EB5 for remainder of 2012.openaccount,

I do agree EB1 approvals are higher than last year, but it would be truer to say that we have seen a "huge increase in EB1A/B/C approvals" on Trackitt which may be disproportional to the actual increase.

I think we need to look a little beyond the "headline figures" to determine the true increase.

The last figures for EB1 I-140 applications as of July 19, 2011 shows the numbers of applications were reasonably constant.

We can surmise that EB1 I-485 approvals last year were artificially low because of delays introduced by Kazarian, so we should expect approvals to be higher this year.

Looking at Trackitt, there were an unusually high number of I-485 applications added in 2011 compared to previous years (EB1A - 150%, EB1B - 125%, EB1C - 220%, Weighted Increase - 180%).

We might therefore expect Trackitt to show higher approval numbers (for the same actual number) in FY2012 than FY2011 taking processing time into account. To a certain extent, it explains the extremely high number of EB1C approvals. Determining what EB1 is actually doing is quite hard this year.

If any of the EB1 backlog increase from last year is also cleared this year, I don't think EB1 will contribute any spillover and could use some from EB5. Otherwise, EB1 will contribute a few k. CO really needs that to happen to service the spillover (c.14-18k) that EB2-IC already needs.

EB2 seems to have received about 67k last year, of which EB2-IC may have received about 34k. That means EB2-WW received about 33k.

I agree, that at present based on Trackitt approval alone, EB2-WW is on course to repeat something similar, if approval patterns are similar to last year and assuming sufficient visa numbers remain.

However, 5 months is a long time and anything can happen.

[Spectator]

Since we have a little extra information, I thought i would have a look at the figures to see if I could determine the level of Porting for last year FY2011.

Those of you who have ever attempted this know how difficult it is to determine Porting numbers. My latest attempt may not be great, but i thought I would throw it out here anyway.

I am looking at the difference between the change in the Demand Data versus the estimated number of visas received by EB2 China and EB2-India.

I am assuming that Demand Data probably doesn't capture (when COD is Current for the PD) :

a) PWMB
b) Porting

In addition the Demand Data may temporarily be affected by :

c) Some CP cases that become documentarily qualified, then disappear after approval.

I am ignoring (c) because it won't represent a large number and is unknown.

I am using an estimated figure of 34k SOFAD for EB2-IC. In addition, I am assuming that EB2-C has no Porting (this probably isn't entirely correct, but EB2-C appears to have very little Porting from the scant information available.)


---------------------- China -- India -- Total
Start Demand FY2011 -- 11,300 - 22,925 - 34,225
End Demand FY2011 ----- 3,250 -- 5,000 -- 8,250
Demand Change --------- 8,050 - 17,925 - 25,975

Visas Used ------------ 8,500 - 25,500 - 34,000
Difference -------------- 450 -- 7,575 -- 8,025
% Difference ---------- 5.29% - 29.71% - 23.60%

PWMB -------------------- 450 -- 1,350 -- 1,800
Porting ------------------- 0 -- 6,225 -- 6,225


From the Difference, I have prorated EB2-I PWMB figures based on EB2-C numbers and Visas Used.

This leaves Porting for EB2-I at about 6k, which is figure that Teddy originally suggested (0.5k / month).

Feel free to rip the thought process apart.

[usernameisnotvalid]

This better not be true otherwise I will loose trust in almost everything!


Some with PD 26 Feb 2009 got his GC approved. Posted this morning!! Not sure if anyone already shared this here....

http://www.trackitt.com/member/matrixminder

[TheTexan]

This proves that the officers do "Eeni meeny miny moe" to select an application for processing :-)

[vishnu]

also implies that there is good chance for dates to move fast in the next year (given many 2008 and few 2009 apps have already been approved...

[just_curious]

Guys, as much as the numbers speaks the fact they are kind of confusing for the novice people like me. my PD is Feb 2011 as I was kind of expecting the dates to be current either this FY or at least next FY. Based on the numbers laid out here, I am not sure whether I am too optimistic

[krishnav]

Hello Gurus,

Can someone please help me with this query.
Thanks.


Hello Gurus,

I have a query. This is kind of an urgent situation...so I had t post it here. I will move this to another thread once I receive an answer.

My question is if a person is currently working for Firm A and applied for GC through Firm B (a consulting firm), when he recieves his EAD, if he went back to Firm B (on H1) and works as contractor with Firm A (his employer before he received EAD), would it be an issue as far as H1 Transfer or GC is concerned.

Please advise.
Thanks.

[murali83]

I think you need to count PWMBs separately.

Thanks man, will do that

[murali83]

You need to probably factor in backlog carried forward from last FY and PWMBs. (and porting)

Will do that and recalculate, thanks

[soggadu]

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/04/25/annual-visa-limit-for-eb-2-india-and-china-reached-no-new-gc-approvals-until-october-1-2012/

:-( expected but bad news...

[soggadu]

guys... please shed some light on this...

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?847-Multiple-H1-apply-question&p=26661#post26661

[vizcard]

guys... please shed some light on this...

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?847-Multiple-H1-apply-question&p=26661#post26661

I don't think there's much more to say than what Q posted there.

[Nishant_imt]

Gurus,

My I-485 was filed on 4/17 and i haven't received the receipt notice yet. If i don't receive it by 30th when the dates are retrogressing, would i be "missing the boat"?

Thanks in Advance.

[Spectator]

Some with PD 26 Feb 2009 got his GC approved. Posted this morning!! Not sure if anyone already shared this here....

http://www.trackitt.com/member/matrixminderIt turns out this was a false alarm. The user posted this on their profile comments:


Posted by matrixminder on 25 Apr 2012

Sorry fellas, got too excited with "Card Ordered" status and overlooked it was for I-765 and I - 131. Both are approved and email from USCIS that USPS picked my card which I believe is EAD approval and I will get it within 30 days. I will move this to other section...I don't know how long before I get the card.
And yes, it is EB2-I AOS...I still can't see I-485 status with the receipt number so I am assuming it's pending status...sorry for confusion again...hopefully it won't be long wait...any idea? ...Thanks!

[Spectator]

Gurus,

My I-485 was filed on 4/17 and i haven't received the receipt notice yet. If i don't receive it by 30th when the dates are retrogressing, would i be "missing the boat"?

Thanks in Advance.Nishant_imt,

I know it is a stressful time, but try not to worry unduly.

It is the day that USCIS received the application that is important, rather than when they get around to sending out the Receipt Notice.

Hopefully, your lawyers have proof of delivery date. It does seem to take some time to receive the actual Receipt Notice.

Good Luck.

[gcq]

Hello Gurus,

Can someone please help me with this query.
Thanks.
I don't think it should be an issue. As GC is for a future job, it does not matter whom you work for now.

[usernameisnotvalid]

Thanks God!

This reinstates my trust in the system! It is perfect!


It turns out this was a false alarm. The user posted this on their profile comments:

[Nishant_imt]

As always, Thanks Much Spec. I hope the lawyer has the tracking info.

[tatikonda]

Hi Everyone,

I have reading an article on "Sunset of Non-Minister Religious Worker Immigration Law and Advisory for Earliest Filing of I-485 Applications"

Looks like every Fiscal year, these programs should get federal fund and Congress should approve it so that it continues to process, otherwise it is going to shutdown. It appears to me that, EB4 program might get effected by this.

The thought might be cruel/ugly but if this happens, is it going to benefit EB2.
do we get spill over from EB4.

Sorry Guys to ask this question.

[qesehmk]

Nothing wrong in what u said. No need to be sorry. This should add 1-2 k to eb4 spillover. I believe eb4 doesn't yield. Anything today.
Hi Everyone,

I have reading an article on "Sunset of Non-Minister Religious Worker Immigration Law and Advisory for Earliest Filing of I-485 Applications"

Looks like every Fiscal year, these programs should get federal fund and Congress should approve it so that it continues to process, otherwise it is going to shutdown. It appears to me that, EB4 program might get effected by this.

The thought might be cruel/ugly but if this happens, is it going to benefit EB2.
do we get spill over from EB4.

Sorry Guys to ask this question.

[anish5]

Hi Kanmani/Guru's,

We (My self/wife) just pop up I-485 RFE in SMS , How long take time to get physical notice and is it going to get Attorney or my home (Got EAD/AP/FInger prints came to my home directly) .
Also what type of RFE , any idea ? what is the response time, I already booked the flight ticket , can I travel using AP or can we respond after came to USA?

Please advise!!!

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS


Your Case Status: Request for Evidence


On April 26, 2012, we mailed a notice requesting additional evidence or information in this case I485 APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS. Please follow the instructions on the notice to submit the requested information. This case will be in suspense until we receive the evidence or the opportunity to submit it expires. Once we receive the requested evidence or information and make a decision on the case, you will be notified by mail. If you move while this case is pending, please use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or call our customer service

[vizcard]

Hi Kanmani/Guru's,

We (My self/wife) just pop up I-485 RFE in SMS , How long take time to get physical notice and is it going to get Attorney or my home (Got EAD/AP/FInger prints came to my home directly) .
Also what type of RFE , any idea ? what is the response time, I already booked the flight ticket , can I travel using AP or can we respond after came to USA?

Please advise!!!

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS


Your Case Status: Request for Evidence


On April 26, 2012, we mailed a notice requesting additional evidence or information in this case I485 APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS. Please follow the instructions on the notice to submit the requested information. This case will be in suspense until we receive the evidence or the opportunity to submit it expires. Once we receive the requested evidence or information and make a decision on the case, you will be notified by mail. If you move while this case is pending, please use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or call our customer service

No way to tell till you actually get the hard copy RFE. I believe you will get that in 7 days or so...could be longer.
You can travel on AP and respond when you get back as long its within the time to respond (90 days I think)

[srinidhi]

I have received my EAD last week and I am working on H1B with my GC sponsored employer .My H1B is expiring next month . I am getting salary of 80K per annum on my H1B .But my Perm prevailing wage says 54$ per hour . If I start work using my EAD , Does my employer need to pay the prevailing wage as stated in my PERM ? or Can he pay me the same wage(80K pa) what I am getting right now ?

Thanks

[Jonty Rhodes]

Sorry to post something off-topic but I think this can help people who want to change their jobs and still want to retain their PD even if their I-140 is revoked by the previous employer. (unless it is revoked for fraud or willful misrepresentation). I believe this will not only help the people who are porting from EB-3 to EB-2 but also people in EB-2 who also want to change the jobs.

Below is a link for the video from Immigration Lawyer Rajiv Khanna which throws some light on this. The document in the video was released by NSC after a Teleconference on 04/12/2012 and talks about the policy they (TSC and NSC) follow. This was also reported on Oh Law Firm Website by Attorney Mathew Oh few days ago also.

I am not sure if people were already aware of this before. At least, not me. I always thought that if you change your job and go to a new employer and if the old employer revokes your I-140 for any reason, than you lose your PD. I guess I was wrong.

There is one caveat though. If you are seeking H1B extension beyond 6 years than you can not do that on revoked I-140.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsVVoaWC2Bo&feature=player_embedded

This is what Oh Law Firm website said.

04/25/2012: I-140 Earlier Priority Date Recapture in the Context of Withdrawal of Approved Earlier I-140 by Earlier Employer

In order to tackle the insurmountable hurdle for EB-3 employment-based immigration, Indian and Chinese professionals have been seeking EB-2 labor certification and EB-2 I-140 petition through new employers and they have been agonizing to find answer to a question as to whether they could recapture the earlier priority date which was retained through the former employer but afterward revoked by withdrawal of the approved I-140 petition by the former employer. This issue is handled, from time to time, by adjudicators differently, leading to denial of recapture despite of the language in the USCIS regulation which gives a right for the alien beneficiary to retain earlier priority date unless the approved petition is revoked for fraud or misrepresentation. Under the immigration statute, the employer does not have any authority to revoke the government decision and only the agencies can revoke the decisions. The employers can withdraw the approved petitions and based on the withdrawal, the agencies can revoke the approved petitions. In such context, the agency is revoking the approved petition not, repeat not based on fraud or misrepresentation. Therefore, the retained priority date should not be affected in the latter context. In the AILA and Nebraska Service Center liaison minute of 04/12/2012 which has just been released, the Nebraska Service Center confirms that Texas and NSC centers adhere to retaining the earlier priority date unless the I-140 was revoked for fraud or willful misrepresentation and not for withdrawal of the approved petition by the employer. The agency's liaison opinion is not a binding rule but at least reflects their practice. Good to know, but those who face such decision should seek legal counsel.

This raised a question in my mind. Suppose if I change my job and go from Employer A to Employer B and if Employer A revokes my I-140 (not for fraud or willful misrepresentation) than I understand that I would be able to retain my PD. But in order to do that, does the job description has to be similar with Employer B also?

I am asking this because one of my Physician friend is currently working as a General Internist and has a traditional Internal Medicine Practice (meaning seeing patients in his office and also going to hospital to see patients). He is wanting to change the job and work exclusively in the inpatient setting (seeing patients only in hospital, no more office hours). He has an approved LC and I-140 under EB2I with Employer A but the job description will be different if he goes to Employer B since he is going to have only inpatient duties. Should he change his job or not?

Thanks in advance.

[Spectator]

This raised a question in my mind. Suppose if I change my job and go from Employer A to Employer B and if Employer A revokes my I-140 (not for fraud or willful misrepresentation) than I understand that I would be able to retain my PD. But in order to do that, does the job description has to be similar with Employer B also?

I am asking this because one of my Physician friend is currently working as a General Internist and has a traditional Internal Medicine Practice (meaning seeing patients in his office and also going to hospital to see patients). He is wanting to change the job and work exclusively in the inpatient setting (seeing patients only in hospital, no more office hours). He has an approved LC and I-140 under EB2I with Employer A but the job description will be different if he goes to Employer B since he is going to have only inpatient duties. Should he change his job or not?

Thanks in advance.Jonty,

My take on this issue.

A job being the same or similar is only an issue when a person is using I-140 Portability under AC-21 because an I-485 has been pending at least 180 days. When this is the case, no new PERM or I-140 is being approved for the new position and the job is required to be similar to the PERM/I-140 it is being based on.

I would argue that your example would fall under the definition of "similar" anyway. The requirement is not that the job be "identical".

Where the new job has its own new PERM (if required) and I-140, then there is no requirement for the job to be similar to that of the previously approved I-140 to recapture the earlier PD.

The USCIS Adjudicators Field Manual deals with the issues in Chapter 22.2 (d).


(1) Determining the Priority Date.

In general, if a petition is supported by an individual labor certification issued by DOL, the priority date is the earliest date upon which the labor certification application was filed with DOL. In those cases where the alien's priority date is established by the filing of the labor certification, once the alien's Form I-140 petition has been approved, the alien beneficiary retains his or her priority date as established by the filing of the labor certification for any future Form I-140 petitions, unless the previously approved Form I-140 petition has been revoked because of fraud or willful misrepresentation. This includes cases where a change of employer has occurred; however, the new employer must obtain a new labor certification if the classification requested requires a labor certification (see the section on successor in interest).

There is also a section on a PD based on an earlier petition.


(3) Priority Date Based on Earlier Petition.

If an alien is the beneficiary of two (or more) approved employment-based immigrant visa petitions, the priority of the earlier petition may be applied to all subsequently-filed employment-based petitions. For example: Company A files a labor certification request on behalf of an alien ("Joe") as a janitor on January 10, 2003. The DOL issues the certification on March 20, 2003. Company A later files, and USCIS approves, a relating I-140 visa petition under the EB-3 category. On July 15, 2003, Joe files a second I-140 visa petition in his own behalf as a rocket scientist under the EB-1 category, which USCIS approves. Joe is entitled to use the January 10, 2003, priority date to apply for adjustment under either the EB-1 or the EB-3 classification.

I think the example makes it quite clear that the later petition does not need to be similar to the originally approved petition to retain the PD.

[Kanmani]

I have received my EAD last week and I am working on H1B with my GC sponsored employer .My H1B is expiring next month . I am getting salary of 80K per annum on my H1B .But my Perm prevailing wage says 54$ per hour . If I start work using my EAD , Does my employer need to pay the prevailing wage as stated in my PERM ? or Can he pay me the same wage(80K pa) what I am getting right now ?

Thanks

Srinidhi,

The salary noted in the perm which was accepted by the employer to pay you is for the future employment after you obtain ur GC.

[ismile]

Kanmani,

If you don't mind could you please share the reason for your RFE?

[bieber]

Hi Kanmani/Guru's,

We (My self/wife) just pop up I-485 RFE in SMS , How long take time to get physical notice and is it going to get Attorney or my home (Got EAD/AP/FInger prints came to my home directly) .
Also what type of RFE , any idea ? what is the response time, I already booked the flight ticket , can I travel using AP or can we respond after came to USA?

Please advise!!!

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS


Your Case Status: Request for Evidence


On April 26, 2012, we mailed a notice requesting additional evidence or information in this case I485 APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS. Please follow the instructions on the notice to submit the requested information. This case will be in suspense until we receive the evidence or the opportunity to submit it expires. Once we receive the requested evidence or information and make a decision on the case, you will be notified by mail. If you move while this case is pending, please use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or call our customer service

Anish

what is your RD and service center?

[anish5]

No way to tell till you actually get the hard copy RFE. I believe you will get that in 7 days or so...could be longer.
You can travel on AP and respond when you get back as long its within the time to respond (90 days I think)

Thank you Vizcard, Will update you once get the RFE in hand.
I was thinking to respond after my vacation but let see the dates are confomrtable with in range.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Jonty,

My take on this issue.

A job being the same or similar is only an issue when a person is using I-140 Portability under AC-21 because an I-485 has been pending at least 180 days. When this is the case, no new PERM or I-140 is being approved for the new position and the job is required to be similar to the PERM/I-140 it is being based on.

I would argue that your example would fall under the definition of "similar" anyway. The requirement is not that the job be "identical".

Where the new job has its own new PERM (if required) and I-140, then there is no requirement for the job to be similar to that of the previously approved I-140 to recapture the earlier PD.

The USCIS Adjudicators Field Manual deals with the issues in Chapter 22.2 (d).



There is also a section on a PD based on an earlier petition.



I think the example makes it quite clear that the later petition does not need to be similar to the originally approved petition to retain the PD.

Sorry Spec. I thanked you earlier in one of my posts but I think Kanmani moved the Vaccination RFE thread to Post-485 filing section and by mistake, my post thanking you was also moved with that thread. So posting the appreciation again.

Thanks a lot Spec. As always, you are right on target. Thanks again. :o

[Jonty Rhodes]

Jonty, Thank you for the detailed description. Our lawyer is not returning our mails and it is a waste of time to wait for her advice. Since this is the 3rd call for the civil surgeon in the same issue, he wants to educate the USCIS, particularly the officer (number noted in the RFE). But one of our forum members 'Sirisha' received the same RFE and she managed to take the vaccines and send a fresh medical report to replace the old. I want to follow her path.

Thank you once again. I'll update the progress.

(I'll move this post later)

Lazy lawyers huhhhhh. So you are not the only one. My H1B extension and eventually PERM got delayed for 11 months just because of the lazy lawyer and her lazy paralegal. She filed my LCA under Bachelor's Degree instead of MD, put my date of birth wrong, my address wrong, my passport expiration dates wrong during my H1B extension. Finally, after 2 months of trying to contact her, she responded and I had to send new documents and had to upgrade my H1B to premium processing. When it came to file for PERM, she put wrong advertisements without letting the hospital know and later on had to withdraw. Hospital fired her and we have a new lawyer now but because of her and her paralegal's incompetency, my PD ended up being in Middle of May, 2011 instead of June, 2010.

Anyways, enough of my ranting. Good luck to you.

[vedu]

USCIS Dashboard has been updated for Jan, 12 and Feb, 12. It looks like there is a significant reduction in I-140 receipts as compared to Jan, 11 and Feb, 11.

[Spectator]

USCIS Dashboard has been updated for Jan, 12 and Feb, 12. It looks like there is a significant reduction in I-140 receipts as compared to Jan, 11 and Feb, 11.vedu,

Thanks for the heads up.

I have been looking for over a month for that to happen.

[abcx13]

USCIS Dashboard has been updated for Jan, 12 and Feb, 12. It looks like there is a significant reduction in I-140 receipts as compared to Jan, 11 and Feb, 11.

Thanks...am I right in thinking that this doesn't have any predictive value?

[qesehmk]

Friends,

Over the weekend i updated the header. Basically I looked at trackitt trend, prior year approvals. What I found alarming is EB1 approval rate this year, consumption of EB2IC and EB2ROW steadfastness. Together those things mean only one thing for EB2IC - the dates will not go past 2007 during the remainder of 2012. I am sorry to say this - but I am fairly certain about this and would like to be proven wrong.

Anyway check out the header for the trackitt trend checker.

[murali83]

Thanks for your post Q. So if this is the harsh reality, let me take a potshot at what 2013 is going to look like (I am sure the demand data that will be released next month, or in a week will give us a lot of info).

There are essentially around 5K filers with PD prior to 01-Jan-2008 (as Teddy had also alluded to in one of his posts and also based on a calculation which is as follows).

From April 15-Oct 30, 2007 (from trackitt and other sources, 65% of the filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 30% remain in the system)
From Nov 1 - Dec 31, 2007 (50% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 45% remain in the system)
From Jan 1 - March 15, 2008 (50% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 45% remain in the system)
From March 16, 2008 - June 30, 2008 (12% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 83% remain in the system)
From July 1, 2008 - Dec 30, 2008 (9% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 86% remain in the system)

Assuming that there is not much Demand Destruction until end of 2008 and EB2IC is pretty strong until then, lets go with 1800 a month including porting.

Until Dec 31, 2007

(6.5 months * 0.3 + 2 *0.45)*1800 = 5130 until the end of 2007 (kind of re-affirms the 5K filers in the system until Dec 31, 2007)

From Jan 1, 2008 to mid 2008 (lets say June 30, 2008) we have

(2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83)*1800 = 7254

In entire 2008 (Jan 1, 2008 to Dec 31, 2008) we have

(2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83 + 6 * 0.86)*1800 = 16542

So, my guess is that when EB2IC gets its usual 5600 per year in oct 2012, the dates should cross in Jan 2008 barely or just about. After that approx 7-8K visas will be needed to clear cases until mid 2008 and approx 17000 visas will be needed to clear all 2008 cases.

So a dull year like 2012, if it repeats in 2013 and we get like 20K visas (the 20K includes our standard 5.6K visas per year), then we may end up at Nov 2008 since we need 5130+16542=21672 visas to clear out entire 2008.

So if we get 0 Sofad + 5.6K we will land at Dec 2007 by end of FY 2013
If we get 7 K sofad + 5.6 K we will land at June 30, 2008
If we get 17 K sofad + 5.6 K we will land at Dec 30, 2008

Cheers and Have a great Sunday

Murali

[red200]

what does a processing time of 8.1 months mean on the USCIS website? (at the same page where we can check the case status too).
does it mean that a person who applied the 485 on oct 1st 2011 , should be processed by jun 3rd 2012 ?


This seems to be different than the one posted on https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processingTimesDisplay.do(updated apr 23 2012)


my question is, can a applicant inquire his case status using the first one with uscis , instead of by a particular date, ie like Aug 11 2012 ?

[vizcard]

Murali - Seems logical given the assumptions. There is a lot of info that we should be getting in the next few weeks that'll help the analysis. Demand data ofcourse and then the next VB. If we DON'T go "U" for the rest of the year, then some of that April 2007 - Aug 2007 demand could go away.

I do believe we will end up in Q1 2009 at the end of FY13. I can't imagine EB1 maintaining this torrid pace in to next year. Also, I'm not sure what's going with the EB4 category..maybe we'll see something there. The key ofcourse continues to be will CO use QSP or wait till Q3 or Q4.

[qesehmk]

Murali - good thoughts and calculations. I agree.

Dec 2008 by Sep 2013 is a certainty IMHO. Possibly it could be better than that. The simple reason behind this is that ... the demand waxes and wanes between years. So last year EB1 only received 25K. So it is imperative that this year they will more than utilize their quota. EB2ROW on the other hand is steadfast and probably will not yield a whole lot either this year or next.

p.s. - Check out the S Korea EB usage. Its almost 13K for 2011. I think that is a good example of arbitratry interpretation of 7% country limit by USCIS. I think we should be happy for them. However , it would be more equitable if EB visas were strictly FIFO within a category to begin with and without any limit for at least certain categories such as EB1. Why should there be any limit on people with extraordinary abilities?


Thanks for your post Q. So if this is the harsh reality, let me take a potshot at what 2013 is going to look like (I am sure the demand data that will be released next month, or in a week will give us a lot of info).

There are essentially around 5K filers with PD prior to 01-Jan-2008 (as Teddy had also alluded to in one of his posts and also based on a calculation which is as follows).

From April 15-Oct 30, 2007 (from trackitt and other sources, 65% of the filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 30% remain in the system)
From Nov 1 - Dec 31, 2007 (50% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 45% remain in the system)
From Jan 1 - March 15, 2008 (50% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 45% remain in the system)
From March 16, 2008 - June 30, 2008 (12% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 83% remain in the system)
From July 1, 2008 - Dec 30, 2008 (9% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 86% remain in the system)

Assuming that there is not much Demand Destruction until end of 2008 and EB2IC is pretty strong until then, lets go with 1800 a month including porting.

Until Dec 31, 2007

(6.5 months * 0.3 + 2 *0.45)*1800 = 5130 until the end of 2007 (kind of re-affirms the 5K filers in the system until Dec 31, 2007)

From Jan 1, 2008 to mid 2008 (lets say June 30, 2008) we have

(2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83)*1800 = 7254

In entire 2008 (Jan 1, 2008 to Dec 31, 2008) we have

(2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83 + 6 * 0.86)*1800 = 16542

So, my guess is that when EB2IC gets its usual 5600 per year in oct 2012, the dates should cross in Jan 2008 barely or just about. After that approx 7-8K visas will be needed to clear cases until mid 2008 and approx 17000 visas will be needed to clear all 2008 cases.

So a dull year like 2012, if it repeats in 2013 and we get like 20K visas (the 20K includes our standard 5.6K visas per year), then we may end up at Nov 2008 since we need 5130+16542=21672 visas to clear out entire 2008.

So if we get 0 Sofad + 5.6K we will land at Dec 2007 by end of FY 2013
If we get 7 K sofad + 5.6 K we will land at June 30, 2008
If we get 17 K sofad + 5.6 K we will land at Dec 30, 2008

Cheers and Have a great Sunday

Murali

[murali83]

Thanks Q. One question though ( vizcard had also mentioned this about EB1).

I am not sure where to look, how many pending eb1's where there at the end of fy2011.
Is the total demand for eb1 same in fy2011 and fy2012.

If thats the case then that is good news. Since they will all be cleared by sep 2012.

Then in 2013 eb1 can yield sofad even if demand stays same since there will be almost 0 carryover from this year. If their usage is going increase or is showing signs of that from i-140 inventory then all bets are off wrt to eb1 yielding anything.

[murali83]

Murali - Seems logical given the assumptions. There is a lot of info that we should be getting in the next few weeks that'll help the analysis. Demand data ofcourse and then the next VB. If we DON'T go "U" for the rest of the year, then some of that April 2007 - Aug 2007 demand could go away.

I do believe we will end up in Q1 2009 at the end of FY13. I can't imagine EB1 maintaining this torrid pace in to next year. Also, I'm not sure what's going with the EB4 category..maybe we'll see something there. The key ofcourse continues to be will CO use QSP or wait till Q3 or Q4.

Vizcard, even after aila announcement, do you still believe that they will any gc's for eb2-ic. If they are not going to issue visas, then keeping it as U will help us in decreasing some possible porting.

What are ur thoughts?

Regarding CO, i think or hope he will at least clear the 5k filers in 2007 (they have waited enuf) with the 5.6k annual quota.

After that its anyone's guess.

[qesehmk]

Murali - 485 pending inventory for Oct 1 2011 shows the pending EB1 then. The total demand always is more or less same for EB1 or any other category. What makes the difference is the processing of the demand is uneven across years. So e.g. last two years the kazarian memo has helped keep EB1 demand in check. LAst year especially much less must have been approved compared to the intake. But in nutshell - EB1 annual demand is easily above 30K every year and can be upto 40K in a good year. Yes I do believe EB1 will stay current. Backlog won't be zero though since some cases are always in processing stage. Generally I would believe thats 3-4 months of inventory. So in an ideal world the full year demand should be 3-4 times the backlog at any time for categories that are current.

EB1 could provide sofad in 2013. But as I said it is difficult to predict given the uneven processing of EB1 demand. So USCIS can suddenly pick up speed or slow down. Who knows?


Thanks Q. One question though ( vizcard had also mentioned this about EB1).

I am not sure where to look, how many pending eb1's where there at the end of fy2011.
Is the total demand for eb1 same in fy2011 and fy2012.

If thats the case then that is good news. Since they will all be cleared by sep 2012.

Then in 2013 eb1 can yield sofad even if demand stays same since there will be almost 0 carryover from this year. If their usage is going increase or is showing signs of that from i-140 inventory then all bets are off wrt to eb1 yielding anything.

[red200]

what does a processing time of 8.1 months mean on the USCIS website? (at the same page where we can check the case status too).
does it mean that a person who applied the 485 on oct 1st 2011 , should be processed by jun 3rd 2012 ?


This seems to be different than the one posted on https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processingTimesDisplay.do(updated apr 23 2012)


my question is, can a applicant inquire his case status using the first one with uscis , instead of by a particular date, ie like Aug 11 2012 ?

Guy's

Ok may be i was not clear in the previous post

It seems from the same USCIS web site , i see two different processing times one which says

Applications are processed before a specific date (now its aug 11 2011) and other
which says processing time for 485 application is 6 months or 8.1 months.

Is there a relation between the two ?

for Example few weeks back the specific date was jun 2011 and the processing time was 8.1 months , but from Jun 2011 to Apr 2012 it is 10 months or more.

which one should we quote when opening a SR with USCIS costumer service ?

[murali83]

Murali - 485 pending inventory for Oct 1 2011 shows the pending EB1 then. The total demand always is more or less same for EB1 or any other category. What makes the difference is the processing of the demand is uneven across years. So e.g. last two years the kazarian memo has helped keep EB1 demand in check. LAst year especially much less must have been approved compared to the intake. But in nutshell - EB1 annual demand is easily above 30K every year and can be upto 40K in a good year. Yes I do believe EB1 will stay current. Backlog won't be zero though since some cases are always in processing stage. Generally I would believe thats 3-4 months of inventory. So in an ideal world the full year demand should be 3-4 times the backlog at any time for categories that are current.

EB1 could provide sofad in 2013. But as I said it is difficult to predict given the uneven processing of EB1 demand. So USCIS can suddenly pick up speed or slow down. Who knows?

Thanks Q, lets hope for the best, as I believe that w.r.t to EB1 giving anything, we have hit rock bottom in 2012, so it can only get better and at worst stay the same. The 32-38K pending inventory that USCIS has for Eb2-IC is almost evenly split, with one half prior to Dec-2008 and the rest from Jan 1, 2009 to April 30, 2010. So overall worst case all of that should get cleared by Sep 2014 and CO might take in applications for PD's beyond 01 May 2010 sometime in Q1 2014 itself so that he does not waste any visas in 2014. But I dont want to be a smart*** and predict so far, but I just wanted to convey what you always say, EB2 is not too bad.

[suninphx]

Thanks for your post Q. So if this is the harsh reality, let me take a potshot at what 2013 is going to look like (I am sure the demand data that will be released next month, or in a week will give us a lot of info).

There are essentially around 5K filers with PD prior to 01-Jan-2008 (as Teddy had also alluded to in one of his posts and also based on a calculation which is as follows).

From April 15-Oct 30, 2007 (from trackitt and other sources, 65% of the filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 30% remain in the system)
From Nov 1 - Dec 31, 2007 (50% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 45% remain in the system)
From Jan 1 - March 15, 2008 (50% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 45% remain in the system)
From March 16, 2008 - June 30, 2008 (12% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 83% remain in the system)
From July 1, 2008 - Dec 30, 2008 (9% of filers have been approved, assuming 5% difficult cases, 86% remain in the system)

Assuming that there is not much Demand Destruction until end of 2008 and EB2IC is pretty strong until then, lets go with 1800 a month including porting.

Until Dec 31, 2007

(6.5 months * 0.3 + 2 *0.45)*1800 = 5130 until the end of 2007 (kind of re-affirms the 5K filers in the system until Dec 31, 2007)

From Jan 1, 2008 to mid 2008 (lets say June 30, 2008) we have

(2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83)*1800 = 7254

In entire 2008 (Jan 1, 2008 to Dec 31, 2008) we have

(2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83 + 6 * 0.86)*1800 = 16542

So, my guess is that when EB2IC gets its usual 5600 per year in oct 2012, the dates should cross in Jan 2008 barely or just about. After that approx 7-8K visas will be needed to clear cases until mid 2008 and approx 17000 visas will be needed to clear all 2008 cases.

So a dull year like 2012, if it repeats in 2013 and we get like 20K visas (the 20K includes our standard 5.6K visas per year), then we may end up at Nov 2008 since we need 5130+16542=21672 visas to clear out entire 2008.

So if we get 0 Sofad + 5.6K we will land at Dec 2007 by end of FY 2013
If we get 7 K sofad + 5.6 K we will land at June 30, 2008
If we get 17 K sofad + 5.6 K we will land at Dec 30, 2008

Cheers and Have a great Sunday

Murali

This is interesting approach. Thanks for detailed calculation.

On side note, density of 1800/month for PD 2008 (including porting) points to pretty HIGH demand destruction (contrary to what you have stated in your post) .I will be personally very happy to see that coming to reality.

[murali83]

This is interesting approach. Thanks for detailed calculation.

On side note, density of 1800/month for PD 2008 (including porting) points to pretty HIGH demand destruction (contrary to what you have stated in your post) .I will be personally very happy to see that coming to reality.

Suninphx,

The data next month should tell us the story. So far based on the same approach I have listed above we have 12.04 months (6.5 months * 0.3 + 2 *0.45 + 2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83 + 6 * 0.86) of demand until end of 2008. Lets say 2009 is the deep demand destruction year, lets call that 12*X*0.6, where X is the density per month. I used 0.6 for 2009 to account for relative demand destruction compared to other years. In 2010 we have 4 months of lets say normal demand, that is 4*X.

So we have (12.04+7.2+4)*X = 23.24*X

If we have pending inventory of 41K, then 1800 is an underestimate, or else we should be on track, meaning 1800 is a safe assumption. If 0.6 as the relative demand destruction factor for 2009 is an underestimate, then please correct me and in that case 23.24 will only go up and the density will come down for any pending inventory number. Let us see what the numbers have to say, so far I am hearing estimates of 35K in the pending inventory. Fingers crossed.

[suninphx]

Suninphx,

The data next month should tell us the story. So far based on the same approach I have listed above we have 12.04 months (6.5 months * 0.3 + 2 *0.45 + 2.5 months * 0.45 + 3.5 * 0.83 + 6 * 0.86) of demand until end of 2008. Lets say 2009 is the deep demand destruction year, lets call that 12*X*0.6, where X is the density per month. I used 0.6 for 2009 to account for relative demand destruction compared to other years. In 2010 we have 4 months of lets say normal demand, that is 4*X.

So we have (12.04+7.2+4)*X = 23.24*X

If we have pending inventory of 41K, then 1800 is an underestimate, or else we should be on track, meaning 1800 is a safe assumption. If 0.6 as the relative demand destruction factor for 2009 is an underestimate, then please correct me and in that case 23.24 will only go up and the density will come down for any pending inventory number. Let us see what the numbers have to say, so far I am hearing estimates of 35K in the pending inventory. Fingers crossed.

Not sure if the my definition of demand destruction matches with yours but here is how I calculate it. Based on historical data number of EB2/3IC PERM cases approx. equals Eb2IC demand. That gives a OR of 1. Any thing below this OR is what I consider as demand destruction. So if we take example of year PD 2008 then we have around 28000 EB2/3IC PERM cases i.e. density of about 2300/per month. So if as you said , if you want to assume NO demand destruction then your count should be around 2300/month. But your calculations appear assumes 1800/month density which means OR of about .75 which indicate high demand destruction.(note that we have not even considered porting in whole scenario)

You may want to read this very good post by Spec :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?656-Overall-Ratio-Transformation-Factor-Demand-Destruction-An-Explanation-of-Terms

Update: I am not contesting 1800/month density. All I am pointing out is , that density can be a reality only if there is high demand destruction ( contrary to to your assumption in original post of 'no or very little demand destruction').

[qesehmk]

Here is my devil's advocate. If row doesn't show DD why should we expect it from eb2ic?

[suninphx]

Here is my devil's advocate. If row doesn't show DD why should we expect it from eb2ic?

Q, I think you are comparing two different time frames for EB2IC and ROW( this is based on one of your your posts I read few days back) . Another thing is ROW being always current they are faced with little uncertanity and there is very less need for them to file multiple PERMS due to change in jobs, both husband and wife filing PERMS and moving back to home country etc. So we take example of. EB2IC candidate and ROW candidate facing a slow economy then ROW candidate has advantage of EAD for holding current position or finding new job and may not need to refile PERM etc. Pre AUG 2007 even EB2IC had advantage of EAD. So demand destruction is essentially an event post Aug 2007 and specifically during slow down period of 2008/09. If economy stays as it is currently then OR post 2009 will inch towards 1 , IMO.

[abcx13]

Here is my devil's advocate. If row doesn't show DD why should we expect it from eb2ic?

Good question. Also because I think IC ppl are more hungry to come here as compared to Western Europeans, Australians, etc., they will try their damnedest to get back with their old employer or find a new GC sponsoring employer to use their old, now current PD.

[abcx13]

Q, I think you are comparing two different time frames for EB2IC and ROW( this is based on one of your your posts I read few days back) . Another thing is ROW being always current they are faced with little uncertanity and there is very less need for them to file multiple PERMS due to change in jobs, both husband and wife filing PERMS and moving back to home country etc. So we take example of. EB2IC candidate and ROW candidate facing a slow economy then ROW candidate has advantage of EAD for holding current position or finding new job and may not need to refill PERM etc. Pre AUG 2007 even EB2IC had advantage of EAD. So demand destruction is essentially an event post Aug 2007 and specifically during slow down period of 2008/09. If economy stays as it is currently then OR post 2009 will inch towards 1 , IMO.


Fair point, but then the question becomes if EB2ROW usage declined during crisis years?

[suninphx]

Fair point, but then the question becomes if EB2ROW usage declined during crisis years?

Not sure if you read Spec's post. I have have given link in another reply. Demand destruction is not about less usage. So EB2IC PERM filings in 2009 were significantly less , that is not what we call demand destruction. It's more about people needing to file multiple PERMS for various reasons and moving back to home country etc. resulting in OR of less than 1, that's what would be demand destruction. At least that's my understanding.

[abcx13]

Not sure if you read Spec's post. I have have given link in another reply. Demand destruction is not about less usage. So EB2IC PERM filings in 2009 were significantly less , that is not what we call demand destruction. It's more about people needing to file multiple PERMS for various reasons and moving back to home country etc. resulting in OR of less than 1, that's what would be demand destruction. At least that's my understanding.

yes, I understand what DD means. But since EB2ROW is always current, there will be no "demand destruction" to speak of wrt PERM filings, or minimal compared to EB2IC.

[shashinehal]

I just read the news on Oh Law site where it says "At the end of February 2012, NSC had only 39,779 preadicated I-485 cases and TSC had 42,261 preadjudicated I-485 cases. Probably these rapid consumptions of the preadjudicated cases affected FY 2012 employment-based visa numbers exhaustion."
Is this true/correct ? This matches to earlier post by someone where he mentioned one of the big law firm got internal news that there are around 81k I-485 cases filed.
Guru's can you shed some light on the same ?

[suninphx]

yes, I understand what DD means. But since EB2ROW is always current, there will be no "demand destruction" to speak of wrt PERM filings, or minimal compared to EB2IC.

Exactly the point. So we are talking about DD in context of IC.

[Spectator]

A very interesting discussion has developed and I am enjoying the different viewpoints put forward.

murali,

An excellent post. Particular credit for explaining your thought process so well. I agree generally with what you said, although I too think the numbers might be a little on the low side.

Once Porting is added, I think it may be very difficult for EB2-IC COD to escape 2008 in FY2013.

2009 is always held up as a year of high Demand Destruction, leading to a low OR.

I don't necessarily agree. To my mind, if there was a destruction in numbers, it was the very low number of PERM submitted with 2009 PD. It might be argued that employers chose more carefully which PERM to submit and they actually have a higher chance of surviving than those in some other years.

I do not use a higher DD or lower OR for 2009.

It's too early to say yet, but some figures are starting to point to some part of the period covered by the Jan VB (Mar-Dec 2008) as being a period that might have fewer numbers than expected. I stress that is very provisional.

I agree that DD is really a factor from long wait times to file I-485, so I wouldn't expect EB2-non IC to suffer from it to the same extent. The I-485 can be filed concurrently and if it can survive for 180 days then a lot of the immediate problems are mitigated. I-485 processing times (in real life) have exceeded 6 months for most of the time.

As to EB2-non IC usage - it appears to have held up.

2011 (estimated) - 33k
2010 - 27.5k
2009 - 29.3k
2008 - 44.9k
2007 - 31.4k

Sorry if I have missed anything - there was a lot to catch up on.

Please keep it coming.

[Spectator]

I just read the news on Oh Law site where it says "At the end of February 2012, NSC had only 39,779 preadicated I-485 cases and TSC had 42,261 preadjudicated I-485 cases. Probably these rapid consumptions of the preadjudicated cases affected FY 2012 employment-based visa numbers exhaustion."
Is this true/correct ? This matches to earlier post by someone where he mentioned one of the big law firm got internal news that there are around 81k I-485 cases filed.
Guru's can you shed some light on the same ?shashinehal,

If it matches another figure, then it is completely coincidental IMO. The 80k figure seems far to high anyway.

Remember that the majority of those pre-adjudicated cases shown in the USCIS Dashboard are actually EB3 cases, since all of EB3 has been severely retrogressed for some time. The underlying reduction that might be due to EB2-IC is actually fairly small once you deduct the numbers expected as a result of EB3 approvals for the period.

[shashinehal]

Spec,

In that case why arent we expecting dates to move beyond May 2010 post Oct 2012 ?

Bit confused on the calculations, appreciate if you can help me understand the same.




shashinehal,

If it matches another figure, then it is completely coincidental IMO. The 80k figure seems far to high anyway.

Remember that the majority of those pre-adjudicated cases shown in the USCIS Dashboard are actually EB3 cases, since all of EB3 has been severely retrogressed for some time. The underlying reduction that might be due to EB2-IC is actually fairly small once you deduct the numbers expected as a result of EB3 approvals for the period.

[Spectator]

Spec,

In that case why arent we expecting dates to move beyond May 2010 post Oct 2012 ?

Bit confused on the calculations, appreciate if you can help me understand the same.shashinehal,

I'll try. Hopefully, I've understood your question correctly.

Firstly, the preadjudicated figures in the USCIS Dashboard represent cases where a visa wasn't immediately available after all processing was completed to the point of approval. Since EB2-IC doesn't have very much Consular Processing, the USCIS numbers should match the DOS Demand Data quite well.

We know that, going into this FY, EB2-IC had about 8k pre-adjudicated cases left where a visa had been requested but was not available according to the DOS Demand Data. The figure in the USCIS Dashboard data can't be higher than that.

Since the PD has been Current since November for all possible EB2-IC cases that could be adjudicated after the July 2007 backlog, no further cases could add to the pre-adjudicated total - they would just be approved.

Now to address your main question.

Despite what the May VB says, I don't think it is possible for Cut Off Dates to even remotely approach May 2010 next year.

According to DOS own document (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf), the Cut Off Dates can only move forward as far as the date of the first person for whom there is no visa available.

By October 2012, many if not most, of the applications submitted up to May 2012 will be pre-adjudicated. At that point they will show as Demand to DOS. If all the cases are pre-adjudicated, that number could be as high as 45k.

In that case, for DOS to set the Cut Off Date back to May 2010, there would need to be at least 45k visas available to EB2-IC. Whatever the actual number, it is a very large number. Clearly, that will not be the case.

In reality, EB2-IC may only have 20-25k available for all of FY2013 - enough to move the Cut Off Date towards the latter half of 2008 as previous posts have discussed.

If Quarterly Spillover (QSP) is employed again, then maybe 6-7k might be available in Q1 FY2013. That is about enough to move the Cut Off Date 3 months.

I am at a loss to understand why CO put those words in the May VB. About the only way that I can think of where dates could move to May 2010 would have been for USCIS to have stopped processing EB2-IC cases from April onwards, ensuring that very little demand was apparent to DOS in October 2012. Then, within the law, the Cut Off Dates could advance, much as they did at the beginning of this year. Even that strategy would require the dates to retrogress heavily the next month.

I hope that helps you.

[murali83]

Not sure if the my definition of demand destruction matches with yours but here is how I calculate it. Based on historical data number of EB2/3IC PERM cases approx. equals Eb2IC demand. That gives a OR of 1. Any thing below this OR is what I consider as demand destruction. So if we take example of year PD 2008 then we have around 28000 EB2/3IC PERM cases i.e. density of about 2300/per month. So if as you said , if you want to assume NO demand destruction then your count should be around 2300/month. But your calculations appear assumes 1800/month density which means OR of about .75 which indicate high demand destruction.(note that we have not even considered porting in whole scenario)

You may want to read this very good post by Spec :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?656-Overall-Ratio-Transformation-Factor-Demand-Destruction-An-Explanation-of-Terms

Update: I am not contesting 1800/month density. All I am pointing out is , that density can be a reality only if there is high demand destruction ( contrary to to your assumption in original post of 'no or very little demand destruction').

Hi Suninphx,

I think my definition of DD is different and that is why we are reaching different conclusions. I am not referring to abandoned cases, I am just saying that in 2009 lesser cases (EB2 I-140's) were filed. So when I say 0.6 relative DD, I mean that PD 2009 will have 0.6 times the PD 2008 number of cases.

But I am a little confused with your numbers, 2300 EB2/3 IC is what you are saying, I am saying 1800 EB2-IC, so isn't 1800 correct, if 2300 is EB2+EB3 (I+C).

[murali83]

A very interesting discussion has developed and I am enjoying the different viewpoints put forward.

murali,

An excellent post. Particular credit for explaining your thought process so well. I agree generally with what you said, although I too think the numbers might be a little on the low side.

Once Porting is added, I think it may be very difficult for EB2-IC COD to escape 2008 in FY2013.



Thanks Spec. I think you are right about the numbers being low. Lets see when the data comes out. I will be glad as long as the pending EB2-IC inventory is less than 45K which will mean approx 2000 density.

[shashinehal]

Now i understand your calculations somewhat.
Even i am lost with CO's statement to bring back to May 2010 :) , So was not able to catch you with the calculations here as to why everyone is trying overide CO :)

So everyone is kind of lost with CO's statement :)




shashinehal,

I'll try. Hopefully, I've understood your question correctly.

Firstly, the preadjudicated figures in the USCIS Dashboard represent cases where a visa wasn't immediately available after all processing was completed to the point of approval. Since EB2-IC doesn't have very much Consular Processing, the USCIS numbers should match the DOS Demand Data quite well.

We know that, going into this FY, EB2-IC had about 8k pre-adjudicated cases left where a visa had been requested but was not available according to the DOS Demand Data. The figure in the USCIS Dashboard data can't be higher than that.

Since the PD has been Current since November for all possible EB2-IC cases that could be adjudicated after the July 2007 backlog, no further cases could add to the pre-adjudicated total - they would just be approved.

Now to address your main question.

Despite what the May VB says, I don't think it is possible for Cut Off Dates to even remotely approach May 2010 next year.

According to DOS own document (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf), the Cut Off Dates can only move forward as far as the date of the first person for whom there is no visa available.

By October 2012, many if not most, of the applications submitted up to May 2012 will be pre-adjudicated. At that point they will show as Demand to DOS. If all the cases are pre-adjudicated, that number could be as high as 45k.

In that case, for DOS to set the Cut Off Date back to May 2010, there would need to be at least 45k visas available to EB2-IC. Whatever the actual number, it is a very large number. Clearly, that will not be the case.

In reality, EB2-IC may only have 20-25k available for all of FY2013 - enough to move the Cut Off Date towards the latter half of 2008 as previous posts have discussed.

If Quarterly Spillover (QSP) is employed again, then maybe 6-7k might be available in Q1 FY2013. That is about enough to move the Cut Off Date 3 months.

I am at a loss to understand why CO put those words in the May VB. About the only way that I can think of where dates could move to May 2010 would have been for USCIS to have stopped processing EB2-IC cases from April onwards, ensuring that very little demand was apparent to DOS in October 2012. Then, within the law, the Cut Off Dates could advance, much as they did at the beginning of this year. Even that strategy would require the dates to retrogress heavily the next month.

I hope that helps you.

[suninphx]

Hi Suninphx,

I think my definition of DD is different and that is why we are reaching different conclusions. I am not referring to abandoned cases, I am just saying that in 2009 lesser cases (EB2 I-140's) were filed. So when I say 0.6 relative DD, I mean that PD 2009 will have 0.6 times the PD 2008 number of cases.

But I am a little confused with your numbers, 2300 EB2/3 IC is what you are saying, I am saying 1800 EB2-IC, so isn't 1800 correct, if 2300 is EB2+EB3 (I+C).

That is EB2+EB3 IC PERM cases ~ I485 EB2IC cases. Please read Spec's post. He has explained it so well that I repeating it here will not be very useful :)

[murali83]

I am at a loss to understand why CO put those words in the May VB. About the only way that I can think of where dates could move to May 2010 would have been for USCIS to have stopped processing EB2-IC cases from April onwards, ensuring that very little demand was apparent to DOS in October 2012. Then, within the law, the Cut Off Dates could advance, much as they did at the beginning of this year. Even that strategy would require the dates to retrogress heavily the next month.



Spec,

They have confused us with too many statements. Along with this para, in the same bulletin, they also said that the date in Oct 2012 bulletin will only be known in summer, meaning that it will only be based on supply and demand. And If i remember correctly, CO also announced around Mar 16, that all filed cases will be preadjudicated and will be kept in the pending file, so I guess they are processing cases. To support that fact, even Feb filers are getting RFE's as per trackiit and even some posters on this forum have got rfe's recently, which i guess alludes to the fact that they are processing.

I guess all this makes it even more confusing as to why he put that statement about May 2010.

[murali83]

That is EB2+EB3 IC PERM cases ~ I485 EB2IC cases. Please read Spec's post. He has explained it so well that I repeating it here will not be very useful :)

Thanks suninphx, I will read Spec's post

[neduguy]

Guys pls help.. does the 485 package reach USCIS by Apr-30 or Postmarked by Apr-30? I have some final documents came in today, I am planning to self file by tomorrow. PLS help. In case postmarked is acceptable should it be USPS or FedEx/UPS.

[abcx13]

Does anyone here have access to AILA BTW?

[evoori]

Guys pls help.. does the 485 package reach USCIS by Apr-30 or Postmarked by Apr-30? I have some final documents came in today, I am planning to self file by tomorrow. PLS help. In case postmarked is acceptable should it be USPS or FedEx/UPS.

It has to reach USCIS by April 30. Why did you wait for last moment? Where are you located ?

[neduguy]

It has to reach USCIS by April 30. Why did you wait for last moment? Where are you located ?

Am in Chicago. I looked at same day delivery in fedex, but it's only with the same metro area. Would there be any way I can send the package is same day delivery

[medatom]

Deleted. Not needed

[murali83]

Am in Chicago. I looked at same day delivery in fedex, but it's only with the same metro area. Would there be any way I can send the package is same day delivery

Guess you have to drive to o'hare and take a flight to wherever you have to send it.

[neduguy]

Guess you have to drive to o'hare and take a flight to wherever you have to send it.

That's a nice one murali :) ... Since I got the document By Sunday today is the only last window I have. Or have to wait till oct 2012 as per CO's words in May bulletin.

[goforgreen]

That's a nice one murali :) ... Since I got the document By Sunday today is the only last window I have. Or have to wait till oct 2012 as per CO's words in May bulletin.

I dont want to speak for Murali but I dont think he is joking. If I were you I would take a flight to wherever USCIS reciept box is and hand deliver it today. Or if it is at driving distance then drive and deliver it. Its worth the time and effort, otherwise we dont know till when you have to wait, it might be Oct 12 or longer.

[murali83]

I dont want to speak for Murali but I dont think he is joking. If I were you I would take a flight to wherever USCIS reciept box is and hand deliver it today. Or if it is at driving distance then drive and deliver it. Its worth the time and effort, otherwise we dont know till when you have to wait, it might be Oct 12 or longer.

neduguy,

as goforgreen mentioned, i was not joking, it is now 9:26 central time, just take the day off and get to ur uscis receipt box asap even if u have to shell out some extra money.

[neduguy]

neduguy,

as goforgreen mentioned, i was not joking, it is now 9:26 central time, just take the day off and get to ur uscis receipt box asap even if u have to shell out some extra money.

Thanks Murali and goforgreen for sharing your thougts. I have decided to wait for the window to open up and not to hurry at last day. Am good on H1B with Visa stamped till dec 2013. Hopefully I get to apply later this year. My PD is Apr 2009. Thanks Guys.. it's my first few posting in this form. I have been a silent observer for a long time. Hope I can contribute to the forum going forward.

[suninphx]

Saw this EB2I approval on trackitt. I thought they said no more visas for EB2IC for this FY?

User: foobar123
Category: EB2 India
PD: 07/15/2007
Filing: Concurrent in Aug-2007
Last Finger Printing: First week of Feb-2012
RFE for AOS for Name discrepancy received on 02/09/2012
RFE response Submitted: 04/20/2012
RFE response received by USCIS: 04/25/2012
AOS Status changed to "Card Production" on 04/30/2012
AOS Status changed to "Decision" on 05/01/2012

[imdeng]

Hmmm... maybe because of the Feb RFE, there was a number allotted to the case? I had myself considered the arguments that "RFEs have a number assigned to them" as incorrect - perhaps I was wrong.

Saw this EB2I approval on trackitt. I thought they said no more visas for EB2IC for this FY?

User: foobar123
Category: EB2 India
PD: 07/15/2007
Filing: Concurrent in Aug-2007
Last Finger Printing: First week of Feb-2012
RFE for AOS for Name discrepancy received on 02/09/2012
RFE response Submitted: 04/20/2012
RFE response received by USCIS: 04/25/2012
AOS Status changed to "Card Production" on 04/30/2012
AOS Status changed to "Decision" on 05/01/2012

[mbasense]

Hmmm... maybe because of the Feb RFE, there was a number allotted to the case? I had myself considered the arguments that "RFEs have a number assigned to them" as incorrect - perhaps I was wrong.

how does "no more visas for the year" relate to having a PD cut-off of Aug 2007? Maybe there are some numbers kept aside to account for cases with PDs of Aug 2007 and earlier..

[suninphx]

how does "no more visas for the year" relate to having a PD cut-off of Aug 2007? Maybe there are some numbers kept aside to account for cases with PDs of Aug 2007 and earlier..

If that is the case then its a good news!

[drysnow]

Saw another EB2I Aug/11/2007 PD approval in trackitt. This user (EB2IAug112007) also has an RFE in March.