EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[sujan_vatrapu]

There might be retrogression but this talk of no more GCs for EB2I/C does not make any sense even if CO states so. My guess is there might be a pause or significant slow down till July and then once CO get a better handle of demand data he might push the dates to early 2008 and clear all approvable 2007 cases. I strongly believe this is wats gonna happen. There are simply not enough EB2 ROW cases to use all the EB2 numbers available in the last 2 quarters.

[bee369]

Can an Employer apply another labor and 140 for different location while first 485 is pending to facilitate the move from one location to another ? Will the first be affected ?

[pdmay2008]

With information from various threads, I assume Retrogression is in place effective Mar 23 2012. Currently we do not have data to start calculations.

We need 485 pending inventory to see how many are still pending. How much Spill over we can expect from EB2 ROW. From CO statement we can not expect much spill over from EB1. If EB1 is going to use 100% of VISAs allocated to that category, it will very well use any spill over comes from EB4 & 5. Only hope left is what we get from EB2 ROW.

From the history EB2 ROW spill over is around 10000 to 15000, if that is true, we already used that much in this year. There is absolutely nothing left for Spill over to EB2 I & C for this year.

This is my opinion. Gurus feel free to provide your thoughts on this.

[vizcard]

The whole "no more visas available" ... is that for the year OR for Q2 ? I imagine its for the year but considering is Q-end as well, it begs the question.

[rk1978]

Spec, Teddy, Q and other Gurus,

I may be wrong, but didn't DOS set "U"for Eb2I in the past when visas were unavailable for the year. So, i am wondering why would they set it at 15th Aug 2007 instead of U for the rest of the year? Just curious. Thanks.

[Mavrick]

I'm confused with the post in Trackitt.
Does it mean all EB2I visas were approved in first 2 quarters itself?

I think AUG 2007 is a temp retrogression. After the 3rd & 4th quarter visa numbers the cutoff date will end up in 1st quarter 2008 as Spec, Q and all other experts predicted.

[self.coach]

I think AUG 2007 is a temp retrogression. After the 3rd & 4th quarter visa numbers the cutoff date will end up in 1st quarter 2008 as Spec, Q and all other experts predicted.

Mavrick, are you or were you in South Florida before?:cool:

[vizcard]

I think AUG 2007 is a temp retrogression. After the 3rd & 4th quarter visa numbers the cutoff date will end up in 1st quarter 2008 as Spec, Q and all other experts predicted.

True and maybe.

No one (including the DOS) knows how many visas have been issued in reality. The prevailing thought is that 54% of annual is used up. But since SOFAD is going to be much lower than initially predicted that % could be significantly higher. The other issue is that a lot of 2008s have gotten visas that probably should have gone to 2007s. I don't think we can categorically say it'll be Q1 2008 but it will most likely end up there.

[qesehmk]

PDNOV - you should get it by Sep 2012 with 80% of chance. 90% chance of before Mar 2013. 100% chance of before Sep 2013. (My gut feel of course :) )


Q/Teddy/Spec and all the other Gurus -

Could someone please answer my question?

I am a Dec filer with PD Nov152007 and lost 100% confidence that i will get my GC before the retro happens in a month. Could you guys please tell me realistically when will i get my GC?

Is it at the end of 2012 or spring of 2013?

I really appreciate your response ...


FYI...

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/961911389/eb2-india-and-china-viasa-numbers-might-be-ov/page/last_page
gc4 - thanks for this. Very valuable. I think what the rep was saying there is that EB2IC have used up visas more than their full year quota. It doesn't mean that the entire visas are used up. They will continue to get any spillover and the dates will move beyond Aug 2007 with 100% certainty.


Spec, Teddy, Q and other Gurus,

I may be wrong, but didn't DOS set "U"for Eb2I in the past when visas were unavailable for the year. So, i am wondering why would they set it at 15th Aug 2007 instead of U for the rest of the year? Just curious. Thanks.
My guess is that it means they expect EB2IC to receive at least "X" spillover everymonth where "X" = sumof all pending EB2IC prior to 15th Aug 2007.


I think AUG 2007 is a temp retrogression. After the 3rd & 4th quarter visa numbers the cutoff date will end up in 1st quarter 2008 as Spec, Q and all other experts predicted.
Agree. The dates will settle around Feb 2008 +- 2 months. I would of course be glad if it turns out April + - 2008.

[suninphx]

True and maybe.

No one (including the DOS) knows how many visas have been issued in reality. The prevailing thought is that 54% of annual is used up. But since SOFAD is going to be much lower than initially predicted that % could be significantly higher. The other issue is that a lot of 2008s have gotten visas that probably should have gone to 2007s. I don't think we can categorically say it'll be Q1 2008 but it will most likely end up there.

54% of annual quota for EB visas for all the categories - what that has to do with SOFAD? It's across EB isn't it? Am I missing something?

[rahul123]

Does any one has an update on HR 3012.What would be PD when it becomes a law.

[akshaya8]

due to slow down in approvals the demand data should show increased demand for next bulletin

54% of annual quota for EB visas for all the categories - what that has to do with SOFAD? It's across EB isn't it? Am I missing something?

[srividya]

looks to me 54% Visas might have been consumed. so the senator might got response as visa numbers not available at this point of time[ technically correct statement]
last 2 years annual quota used by Sept 2nd or 3rd week. now they are using Q Spillover uscis used this Q quota by 23rd.

How ever if we don't see approvals after April 1st then we can interpret no more visa numbers for EB2 India and china till August 2012.
Last 2 Q's USCIS approved pre adjudicated cases filed in 2007{ All of these belong to EB2 india & china] and Stright Fwd cases filed recently [ due to this EB2 India & china with PD in 2008 got benefit]. During this time normal 485 processing time frame increased to 6-9 months. So ROW backlog got increased.

And we have 46% of visas for 2nd Half. which means 7K less numbers for EB1 & EB2 together. and EB1 & EB2 ROW usage will surge. these factors not good for spillover.


we may get visa numbers in Sept'2012 if any spill over available. by this time USCIS has enough pre-adjudicated cases and USCIS will co-ordinate with DOS movement date based on spill over available in Sept.

[suninphx]

due to slow down in approvals the demand data should show increased demand for next bulletin

Aashay - you are right about demand data. Every one is eagarly waiting for some sensible numbers in demand data.

But my question to Vizcard was different. Anyway, after reading his post again, I am thinking that probably he meant - ' even if 54% of total visas have been used , that does not necessarily mean only 54% of SOFAD has been used. It could be migh higher. Per one of Spec's post it could be close to 100%'

[bookworm]

I have searched the interwebs but couldn't find an answer so I am hoping that the gurus will help me in making an intelligent decision.

What would I have to do if I were to receive EAD but want to switch jobs between the receipt of EAD and completion of 180 days? I looked at various websites but the answer that I received were not helpful.

[Kanmani]

I have searched the interwebs but couldn't find an answer so I am hoping that the gurus will help me in making an intelligent decision.

What would I have to do if I were to receive EAD but want to switch jobs between the receipt of EAD and completion of 180 days? I looked at various websites but the answer that I received were not helpful.

Restart GC process with the new company and interfile I-140 ( newly approved ) with the existing I485.

[Spectator]

Aashay - you are right about demand data. Every one is eagarly waiting for some sensible numbers in demand data.

But my question to Vizcard was different. Anyway, after reading his post again, I am thinking that probably he meant - ' even if 54% of total visas have been used , that does not necessarily mean only 54% of SOFAD has been used. It could be migh higher. Per one of Spec's post it could be close to 100%'suninphx,

Yes, I'm expecting to see a modest increase in the Demand Data as well. Although the Inventory will be useful, I fear it will not include a proper count of February/March filers.

I think CO is now playing a reverse game with EB1 demand.

Previously, by making an assumption the demand would be low, he was able to accelerate COD movement and give a lot of QSP to EB2-IC.

I think he has been surprised by USCIS ability to quickly adjudicate the new cases and EB2-IC approvals have reached a dangerous level for him, considering there are 6 months left in the FY.

By now saying that EB1 will use the full allocation, he can slam the door shut for at least Q3 and maybe part of Q4.

I think, ultimately, there will still be a modest number of spare visas available from EB1. EB2-ROW usage at present appears no lower than last year and there are 6 months worth of Porting cases to potentially add, so I am not sure how much further the dates will actually progress. I would still expect some visas from EB5, but not as many as last year.

Personally, I am not hopeful for approvals to begin again in any large numbers when Q3 begins, although I could be wrong.

[Kanmani]

Wow Spec. I had a similar thought that CO is playing a game. He was throwing two entirely different stories within a short span of 3 months and I wonder how could a man in that position give out this type of inconsistent messages !

I think this game is not to shut down individuals who are storming them with SRs/ congressman, senator enquiries but to shut the AILA itself from nagging questions.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Yes, I'm expecting to see a modest increase in the Demand Data as well. Although the Inventory will be useful, I fear it will not include a proper count of February/March filers.

I think CO is now playing a reverse game with EB1 demand.

Previously, by making an assumption the demand would be low, he was able to accelerate COD movement and give a lot of QSP to EB2-IC.

I think he has been surprised by USCIS ability to quickly adjudicate the new cases and EB2-IC approvals have reached a dangerous level for him, considering there are 6 months left in the FY.

By now saying that EB1 will use the full allocation, he can slam the door shut for at least Q3 and maybe part of Q4.

I think, ultimately, there will still be a modest number of spare visas available from EB1. EB2-ROW usage at present appears no lower than last year and there are 6 months worth of Porting cases to potentially add, so I am not sure how much further the dates will actually progress. I would still expect some visas from EB5, but not as many as last year.

Personally, I am not hopeful for approvals to begin again in any large numbers when Q3 begins, although I could be wrong.


Wow Spec. I had a similar thought that CO is playing a game. He was throwing two entirely different stories within a short span of 3 months and I wonder how could a man in that position give out this type of inconsistent messages !

I think this game is not to shut down individuals who are storming them with SRs/ congressman, senator enquiries but to shut the AILA itself from nagging questions.

More and more we think about events over past few months, more and more we realize how well planned ( and executed) it was. Can't complain much though as it has done good for many people in terms giving chance to file.

Let's hope that we get some sensible numbers in coming reports. Agree with you Spec, inventory released in Jul/Aug(?) will most probably will have numbers close to reality.

[goforgreen]

True and maybe.

No one (including the DOS) knows how many visas have been issued in reality. The prevailing thought is that 54% of annual is used up. But since SOFAD is going to be much lower than initially predicted that % could be significantly higher. The other issue is that a lot of 2008s have gotten visas that probably should have gone to 2007s. I don't think we can categorically say it'll be Q1 2008 but it will most likely end up there.

The % usage till now, can it be more than 54%? since the cap is 27% for each quarter I was thinking it cannot exceed 54% at the end of second quarter. Just my thoughts.

[Kanmani]

What's the duration of the EAD/AP? In light of retrogression and the USCIS's possible nightmare to renew these for free, can we continue to assume that most of the pre-adjudicated applications should be approved before the EAD/AP expire?

What's the latest date that has been reported to receive a GC? Any February filer? I have read about some people with PD in December 2008 getting through.

Majority of us received 1 year EAD/AP. I dont think all of the feb and March filers get approved before EAD/AP expiry.

I saw some Feb filers' approval yesterday while entering random RNs before and after of my RN. I assume the applicants must be RoW ers . Interestingly proven that uscis has the ability to approve AoS within 45 days of receipt.

I found many 485 applications got rejected after wrong filing fees, many EAD applications got RFE. Fortunately my Ip didn't get blocked after hundreds of hits :)

[usernameisnotvalid]

You will have to submit renewal application again. The most important thing to keep in mind is that if your EAD renewal application is pending you cannot keep working on it if it expires before that. There is not 240 days law like we have for H1b extension pending. You cannot work on it after its expiration even if renewal application is in process. These days EAD renewal is taking 4 months; so file before 4 months of its expiration. I already marked my calendar - 1st Nov start EAD renewal process!

BTW, filing fees have been waived by USCIS for EAD renewal (at least in my case!!). You can file it directly otherwise just pay a legal fees to an attorney and they will file it for you.

Also if you are current when EAD/AP is approved, you will get it for 1 year only otherwise 2 years.


Thanks kanmani.

What happens if we do not receive the GCs in 1 year? Do we have to resubmit a form to renew the EAD/AP, or does it get renewed automatically?

[Mavrick]

Mavrick, are you or were you in South Florida before?:cool:

Never been to South Florida :)

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends following are my thoughts about the current situation.

- Retrogression happening was a foregone conclusion however what is more important is the resting point by the end of Sep 2012.

- By law only 54% numbers can be used in Q1 and Q2 so we still have the remaining 46%.

- Next quarter another 27% are available so hopefully the approvals will happen again (01-APR) for EB2 I/C however in a more measured way especially from 01-May when retrogression will kick in. It will be really interesting to see the pace and the PD’s of the cases being approved in April this will be a key parameter in setting the retrogression point. As of now there are Oct filers still waiting without any kind of RFE (Some cases have been notified of additional review) & still a significant number of Nov & Dec Filers. I believe that the May bulletin retrogression point will not be as drastic as 15th Aug 2007.

- There is another scenario wherein the 27% limit was actually exceeded because at the field level any case can be approved because the corresponding dates are current assuming no circuit breakers are in place if, in this case we should see very few EB2 I/C approvals in April and probably for the rest of the year as well.

- The estimations from agencies have really revolved around extremes unfortunates as in demand being reported as too low and then all of a sudden it becomes too high, probably they have discovered the glitch in the Jan inventory.

- EB2 ROW holds the key to our fortunes since Eb1 usage has been reported closer to the annual cap itself.

[bvsamrat]

100% agreement with Spotsfan33. The action might only to give some breathing space to USCIS as the facts and figures would not change overnight. All who applied might get cleared before this year.



Hi Teddy,

Did you get your GC yet? Sorry I have been away for a while.

Is it really reasonable to assume that within 1 month, the DOS discovered a "glitch" and went from 1 extreme to another? Is it reasonable to think that they anticipated 35K SOFAD and suddenly revised it to 25K by discovering the EB1 usage?

All the time, you guys were predicting March 2008 resting point. How could CO not even have a hint and waltz the dates all the way into May 2010? Why would he punish the USCIS for renewing almost everyone's (everyone up to December 2009 at least) EAD/AP without any fee?

I still think they have enough capacity to clear 2007-2009 pre-adjudicated cases within 1 year from now. If not, they will find creative ways to create space. What's your opinion?

I just read on Ron's website that the rate of denials in India's CP processing has drastically increased. It seems like many of the new applications will be thoroughly scrutinized and end up with RFEs, and the actual demand will not suddenly shoot up. The dates should move forward fairly quickly. The EB1 news may be overblown too and perhaps a red herring from CO for purposes known only to him and God.

[goforgreen]

Friends following are my thoughts about the current situation ....



Teddy thanks a lot for your views, in times when the news is bad I always look forward to yours and Q's opinions and you guys always bring the much needed clarity to the gloomy scenario.

[Kanmani]

Is it really reasonable to assume that within 1 month, the DOS discovered a "glitch" and went from 1 extreme to another? Is it reasonable to think that they anticipated 35K SOFAD and suddenly revised it to 25K by discovering the EB1 usage?



Sportsfan, Complaints from attorneys are mounting the USCIS with respect to the Eb1 rejections/Kazarian memo/ request for a change of policy, so this could be one of the reasons too.

[druvraj]

Here are my 2 cents. I want to paint the worst case scenario and the best case scenario. Everyone is free to comment

Worst case Scenario:
USICS and DOL has developed an inventory and from now on stop all QSP and do what they have been doing after the 2007 debacle i.e. wait for quarter 4 to start the spillover. To top it, if they have exhausted the visa for 2012 then the next movement will happen in July 2013 visa bulletin. 16 months of wait from on guys.

Best Case Scenario:
Keep quite till Q4 of 2012, pre-adjudicate and start moving dates in Q4 of 2012. Do QSP in 2013.

Either ways I know I am not getting GC before July-August. I want it just as badly but I guess it is best to brace myself as I had done before. I lost the calm briefly thinking I will get it by april-may end but reality has to set it. The sooner I realize it better for me.

TSC |-| PD - 02/26/08 |-| MD - 01/04/12 |-| RD - 01/06/12 |-| FPND - 01/23/12 |-| FP - 02/14/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 02/016/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 02/22/12 |-| 485 Approval notice - TBD|-| GC RD - TBD|

[qesehmk]

PDMarch and all,

Moved the "Job Loss" discussion to a dedicated thread at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?753-Job-Loss

Will make that thread stick so that in future if somebody is in such unfortunate situation - can get some knowledge there.

p.s. - PDMAR - your tiger reminded me of "Shiv Sena" in maharashtra. They used to run these ambulance services under the name "Shiv Seva" and these ambulances would have the picture of such tiger heads!!

[haripathhi]

Not sure if this has been posted here previously but Ron Gotcher has something interesting to say about CP's in India: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/entry.php?b=49

[vizcard]

Here are my 2 cents. I want to paint the worst case scenario and the best case scenario. Everyone is free to comment

Worst case Scenario:
USICS and DOL has developed an inventory and from now on stop all QSP and do what they have been doing after the 2007 debacle i.e. wait for quarter 4 to start the spillover. To top it, if they have exhausted the visa for 2012 then the next movement will happen in July 2013 visa bulletin. 16 months of wait from on guys.

Best Case Scenario:
Keep quite till Q4 of 2012, pre-adjudicate and start moving dates in Q4 of 2012. Do QSP in 2013.

Either ways I know I am not getting GC before July-August. I want it just as badly but I guess it is best to brace myself as I had done before. I lost the calm briefly thinking I will get it by april-may end but reality has to set it. The sooner I realize it better for me.

TSC |-| PD - 02/26/08 |-| MD - 01/04/12 |-| RD - 01/06/12 |-| FPND - 01/23/12 |-| FP - 02/14/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval & card production notice - 02/016/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 02/22/12 |-| 485 Approval notice - TBD|-| GC RD - TBD|

Obviously the reality is its somewhere in the middle. I do believe that there will be movement in Q4 FY12 and again in Q1 FY13. Whether or not there will be QSP is anyone's guess. But i could see a scenario where we move 2-3 months in Q1 FY2013 and then maybe a month every or every other bulletin until we hit the Q4 SO season.

[openaccount]

Based on trackitt data & assuming CO has not used more than 54% in Q1+Q2 below is my analysis based on trackitt data. Spill Over(SO) is for 7% of trackitt data.

---------- Trackitt 10% 9% 8% 7% Total SO required for 7%(Pending)
Total----->2587 25870 28744 32337 36957
Approved->964 9640 10711 12050 13765
Pending->1624 16240 18042 20300 23200 23200

------Trackitt 10% 9% 8% 7% Total SO required for 7%(Pending)
07 april pd- 5 50 55 62 71 71
07 may pd- 26 260 288 325 371 442
07 jun pd- 30 300 333 375 428 870
07 july pd- 47 400 522 587 671 1541
07 aug pd- 65 650 722 812 928 2469----->CO may be thinking that EB2IC might get 2K in Q3+Q4 which may change.
07 sept pd- 82 820 911 1025 742 3211
07 oct pd- 74 740 822 925 1056 4267
07 nov pd- 79 790 877 987 1128 5395------>5K SO clears till nov 07
07 dec pd- 96 960 1066 1200 1370 6765
08 jan pd- 119 1190 1322 1487 1699 8464
08 feb pd- 101 1010 1122 1262 1442 9906------>10K SO clears till feb 08
08 mar pd- 93 930 1033 1162 1328 11234
08 apr pd- 96 960 1066 1200 1370 12604
08 may pd- 98 980 1088 1200 1399 14003----->14k SO clears till may 08
08 jun pd- 92 920 1022 1150 1313 15316
08 july pd- 67 670 744 837 956 16272
08 aug pd-102 1020 1133 1275 1456 17728----->18k SO clears till aug 08
08 sept pd- 82 820 911 1025 1170 18898
08 oct pd- 76 760 844 950 1085 19983----->20k SO clears till oct 08
08 nov pd- 87 870 966 1087 1242 21225
08 dec pd-106 1060 1177 1325 1513 22738----->23k SO clears till dec 08

Visas used in Q1+Q2(EB1+Eb2+Eb4+EB5)=54k
Remaining for Q3+Q4(Eb1+Eb2+Eb4+Eb5)=46k

--------------------------------Trackitt 10% 9% 8% 7%
Visas used by EB2IC for Q1+Q2 964 9640 10711 12050 13765

Now add 8000-EB2IC carried over from FY2011 as per Oct2011USCIS inventory

----------------------------------Trackitt 10% 9% 8% 7%
Total Visas used by EB2IC for Q1+Q2 N/A 17640 18711 20050 21765
Visas Used by EB1+EB2ROW+EB4+EB5 N/A 36360 35289 33950 32235

EB2IC consumed 18k-22k(+/- 1k) visas in Q1+Q2
EB1+EB2ROW+EB4+EB5 consumed 32k-36k(+/- 1k)


Estimated Usage for Q3+Q4(EB1+EB2ROW+EB4+EB5 ) if Q1+Q2 trend repeats-->32k-36k(+/- 1k) SO to EB2IC-->14k-10k(+/- 1k)
According to CO's retrogression announcement no spill over from EB1 if EB1 Demand increases by 10K in Q3+Q4--assuming CO is correct, then EB2IC may get 2k-4k SO

[bee369]

Hi Gurus,
I already posted my situation but day by day it's taking turns.

To recap -
My PD is Apr 2010 EB2-I and I was eligible to apply I485 on Mar 1'st from IL location from where I have my PERM and 140 approved. My team is now being relocated to NY ( same company, same team, only location change ) and now my Manager in NY asking me to relocate by Apr end. My HR talked to Attorney and tried to convince my manager and asked whether I can stay until 180 days and move in September to NY but my manager is not convinced and so HR asks me to move by Apr end.

when I talked to attorney who did my PERM and she says that GC is for future position and I can be anywhere and so changing location now ( before 180 days ) is OK. But my HR talked to another Attorney who is little higher in position and she says that it is safe not to move. My HR says that they will not change the head count and legal entity until September and so by changing my postal address may affect and they say not 100% safe. I hear mixed opinions from them.

Initially we thought I can be anywhere and so applying 485 on March 1'st and move to NY by Apr end and then invoke AC21 on Sept 1'st should be good because there is no way I can get GC approved with in 180 days.

when my PD becomes current again I will be with same employer but different location but because I invoked AC21 it should be good.

But now they are saying that better to change the physical location after 180 days. so what do you guys think. I can do one thing that I can alone just do travel as my manager wants me in NY by May 1'st without moving my family and that way I don't need to change my address. my HR said they will not change headcount until Sept 1'st so USCIS may not know that I am working from NY.

there is another problem is that my H1B is due for extension by Aug 10'th and so not sure whether they can apply my H1B extension for IL locatin or they have to do for NY.

I am not 100% sure what do they mean by not changing the head count and legal entity ? need to ask my HR. may be they will change my payroll to NY or continue IL. not sure.


I have 2 options

Option 1) move by Apr end and hopefully by that time I will get my ead/ap and FP done and change my address using AR-11 and invoke AC21 in September and just fingers crossed and wait until my PD becomes current after retrogression. assumption here is that I am going by words that I can be anywhere while 485 is pending because in EVL they mentioned that I have intent to work from IL location. Just because I don't see approvall in 180 days changed location with same employer by invoking AC21.

Option 2) just travel between IL and NY until Aug end and don't change address and don't even do H1B extension. If H1B extension then try to do from IL and do amendement in September after I move permanently in September. may need to confirm with HR what does they mean by not changing head count and legel entity until September.

Please suggest.

Gurus, I am awaiting your suggestions.

Thanks much.

[bvsamrat]

Hats off! Great analysis


Based on trackitt data & assuming CO has not used more than 54% in Q1+Q2 below is my analysis based on trackitt data. Spill Over(SO) is for 7% of trackitt data.

Trackitt 10% 9% 8% 7% Total SO required for 7%(Pending)
Total 2587 25870 28744 32337 36957
Approved 964 9640 10711 12050 13765
Pending 1624 16240 18042 20300 23200 23200

Trackitt 10% 9% 8% 7% Total SO required for 7%(Pending)
07 april pd- 5 50 55 62 71 71
07 may pd- 26 260 288 325 371 442
07 jun pd- 30 300 333 375 428 870
07 july pd- 47 400 522 587 671 1541
07 aug pd- 65 650 722 812 928 2469----->CO may be thinking that EB2IC might get 2K in Q3+Q4 which may change.
07 sept pd- 82 820 911 1025 742 3211
07 oct pd- 74 740 822 925 1056 4267
07 nov pd- 79 790 877 987 1128 5395------>5K SO clears till nov 07
07 dec pd- 96 960 1066 1200 1370 6765
08 jan pd- 119 1190 1322 1487 1699 8464
08 feb pd- 101 1010 1122 1262 1442 9906------>10K SO clears till feb 08
08 mar pd- 93 930 1033 1162 1328 11234
08 apr pd- 96 960 1066 1200 1370 12604
08 may pd- 98 980 1088 1200 1399 14003----->14k SO clears till may 08
08 jun pd- 92 920 1022 1150 1313 15316
08 july pd- 67 670 744 837 956 16272
08 aug pd-102 1020 1133 1275 1456 17728----->18k SO clears till aug 08
08 sept pd- 82 820 911 1025 1170 18898
08 oct pd- 76 760 844 950 1085 19983----->20k SO clears till oct 08
08 nov pd- 87 870 966 1087 1242 21225
08 dec pd-106 1060 1177 1325 1513 22738----->23k SO clears till dec 08

Visas used in Q1+Q2(EB1+Eb2+Eb4+EB5)=54k
Remaining for Q3+Q4(Eb1+Eb2+Eb4+Eb5)=46k

Trackitt 10% 9% 8% 7%
Visas used by EB2IC for Q1+Q2 964 9640 10711 12050 13765

Now add 8000-EB2IC carried over from FY2011 as per Oct2011USCIS inventory

Trackitt 10% 9% 8% 7%
Total Visas used by EB2IC for Q1+Q2 N/A 17640 18711 20050 21765
Visas Used by EB1+EB2ROW+EB4+EB5 N/A 36360 35289 33950 32235

EB2IC consumed 18k-22k(+/- 1k) visas in Q1+Q2
EB1+EB2ROW+EB4+EB5 consumed 32k-36k(+/- 1k)


Estimated Usage for Q3+Q4(EB1+EB2ROW+EB4+EB5 ) if Q1+Q2 trend repeats-->32k-36k(+/- 1k) SO to EB2IC-->14k-10k(+/- 1k)
According to CO's retrogression announcement no spill over from EB1 if EB1 Demand increases by 10K in Q3+Q4--assuming CO is correct, then EB2IC may get 2k-4k SO

[pdmarch282008]

PDMarch and all,

Moved the "Job Loss" discussion to a dedicated thread at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?753-Job-Loss

Will make that thread stick so that in future if somebody is in such unfortunate situation - can get some knowledge there.

p.s. - PDMAR - your tiger reminded me of "Shiv Sena" in maharashtra. They used to run these ambulance services under the name "Shiv Seva" and these ambulances would have the picture of such tiger heads!!

Thanks Q. I'll keep you'll posted. I am glad the Tiger reminded you of something back home.

[vizcard]

Hi Gurus,
I already posted my situation but day by day it's taking turns.

To recap -
My PD is Apr 2010 EB2-I and I was eligible to apply I485 on Mar 1'st from IL location from where I have my PERM and 140 approved. My team is now being relocated to NY ( same company, same team, only location change ) and now my Manager in NY asking me to relocate by Apr end. My HR talked to Attorney and tried to convince my manager and asked whether I can stay until 180 days and move in September to NY but my manager is not convinced and so HR asks me to move by Apr end.

when I talked to attorney who did my PERM and she says that GC is for future position and I can be anywhere and so changing location now ( before 180 days ) is OK. But my HR talked to another Attorney who is little higher in position and she says that it is safe not to move. My HR says that they will not change the head count and legal entity until September and so by changing my postal address may affect and they say not 100% safe. I hear mixed opinions from them.

Initially we thought I can be anywhere and so applying 485 on March 1'st and move to NY by Apr end and then invoke AC21 on Sept 1'st should be good because there is no way I can get GC approved with in 180 days.

when my PD becomes current again I will be with same employer but different location but because I invoked AC21 it should be good.

But now they are saying that better to change the physical location after 180 days. so what do you guys think. I can do one thing that I can alone just do travel as my manager wants me in NY by May 1'st without moving my family and that way I don't need to change my address. my HR said they will not change headcount until Sept 1'st so USCIS may not know that I am working from NY.

there is another problem is that my H1B is due for extension by Aug 10'th and so not sure whether they can apply my H1B extension for IL locatin or they have to do for NY.

I am not 100% sure what do they mean by not changing the head count and legal entity ? need to ask my HR. may be they will change my payroll to NY or continue IL. not sure.


I have 2 options

Option 1) move by Apr end and hopefully by that time I will get my ead/ap and FP done and change my address using AR-11 and invoke AC21 in September and just fingers crossed and wait until my PD becomes current after retrogression. assumption here is that I am going by words that I can be anywhere while 485 is pending because in EVL they mentioned that I have intent to work from IL location. Just because I don't see approvall in 180 days changed location with same employer by invoking AC21.

Option 2) just travel between IL and NY until Aug end and don't change address and don't even do H1B extension. If H1B extension then try to do from IL and do amendement in September after I move permanently in September. may need to confirm with HR what does they mean by not changing head count and legel entity until September.

Please suggest.

Gurus, I am awaiting your suggestions.

Thanks much.

Your third option is to re-start your PERM and I-140 for NY. That being said, I'll comment on your two options

Option 1:
Theoretically this is do-able assuming your company is willing to say you are IL employee temporarily working in NY. After 6 months you can do use AC21 and officially change. That's what they mean when they say they won't change head count or legal entity. Remember, any change in the first 180 days needs new PERM, etc. so as long as the status quo can be maintained "on paper", you should be fine. The obvious risk by moving in May is any communication from USCIS will come to your current address. Using AR11 will change your address but if its in another state that will raise red flags. The safe thing to do would be to change your address to someone you know in the same town (close friend, relative, etc.). That way you will be aware of all communication from the USCIS.

Option 2:
This is also an option but a very expensive one. Traveling to-from NY and living here even for a few months really adds up. If you are doing this, you might as well have two residences - one in IL and one in NY .

[bee369]

Your third option is to re-start your PERM and I-140 for NY. That being said, I'll comment on your two options

Option 1:
Theoretically this is do-able assuming your company is willing to say you are IL employee temporarily working in NY. After 6 months you can do use AC21 and officially change. That's what they mean when they say they won't change head count or legal entity. Remember, any change in the first 180 days needs new PERM, etc. so as long as the status quo can be maintained "on paper", you should be fine. The obvious risk by moving in May is any communication from USCIS will come to your current address. Using AR11 will change your address but if its in another state that will raise red flags. The safe thing to do would be to change your address to someone you know in the same town (close friend, relative, etc.). That way you will be aware of all communication from the USCIS.

Option 2:
This is also an option but a very expensive one. Traveling to-from NY and living here even for a few months really adds up. If you are doing this, you might as well have two residences - one in IL and one in NY .

Thanks viz for ur response, need to find whether my payroll will be on NY or IL when my HR says head count will not be changed. Why because my H1B need to be extended which expires on Aug 10. If I take option 1 by changing to relative address near to my current location or take option 2 by traveling not sure how they will do H1B transfer. May be I can ask them to do for IL first and do amendment after I move to NY officially in September. What do u think ?

And if I have to take option 3 as u mentioned by redoing PERM and 140 , can I use my AP and can my wife use EAD and AP which we get now in Apr/may until our next perm and 140 is applied until my date becomes current after retro ?

[bee369]

Any inputs Gurus ?
And if I have to take option 3 as u mentioned by redoing PERM and 140 , can I use my AP and can my wife use EAD and AP which we get now in Apr/may until our next perm and 140 is applied until my date becomes current after retro ?

[cricfan]

Hi,

My application reached a lockbox facility a few days ago. I assume that we(not employer) will get the receipt number through mail. Is the received date(RD) same as the date on which the application reaches the lockbox facility ? Is the notice date(ND) same as the date on which we receive a receipt number from USCIS TX/NE office ? Also when does the 6 months clock start for utilizing AC21...Is it RD or ND ?

It will be great if someone can answer my questions.

Thanks

[usernameisnotvalid]

You will get the receipt numbers through USPS mail at your address - one envelope for each application type - 485, 756(EAD), 131(AP)

RD is when they received the application. I sent it on 2/1 and my RD is 2/2. My ND is 2/7.

I guess 180 days is from RD??



Hi,

My application reached a lockbox facility a few days ago. I assume that we(not employer) will get the receipt number through mail. Is the received date(RD) same as the date on which the application reaches the lockbox facility ? Is the notice date(ND) same as the date on which we receive a receipt number from USCIS TX/NE office ? Also when does the 6 months clock start for utilizing AC21...Is it RD or ND ?

It will be great if someone can answer my questions.

Thanks

[cricfan]

You will get the receipt numbers through USPS mail at your address - one envelope for each application type - 485, 756(EAD), 131(AP)

RD is when they received the application. I sent it on 2/1 and my RD is 2/2. My ND is 2/7.

I guess 180 days is from RD??

Thanks ..appreciate it..

[venoo_d]

I received my GC on Feb2012, EB2 India & my priority date is 29Aug2007, filed for my spouse GC through CP, spouse is in India, i-824 approved, NVC received the case on 13Mar2012, I received case# & Invoice# from NVC, I am about to pay the fee and submit DS-230 this week.

May2012 visa bulletin retrogressing to 15Aug2007, my priority date is 29Aug2007, how my case will be impacted?
if my DS-230 approved in April2012, is there any chance to get the interview?

Thank you.

[ragx08]

Any inputs Gurus ?
And if I have to take option 3 as u mentioned by redoing PERM and 140 , can I use my AP and can my wife use EAD and AP which we get now in Apr/may until our next perm and 140 is applied until my date becomes current after retro ?

B22369, I had a similar issue last year - when our HQ was relocated to a different state from the location I was in and they shut down the old HQ operations totally. Back then my attorney suggested that I can move to the new location as long as the old location is still operational - and include a letter from the employer stating that my future employment is attached with the old location and I will be returning back to that location in future. In that case I don't have to go thru refiling PERM & I140. But unfortunately, that was not the situation and so they had to refile everything. I moved last Aug.

Your case seems a lot simpler - since your current location is and will be operational. Check with your attorney to see if something like this is possible and what it takes to get that done. I'm not sure how that would impact your switching jobs invoking AC-21 given the fact that the dates are moving back and it would be a while before you get your GC.

Hope that helps.

[openaccount]

DOS Confirms Lack of Enough EB2 India / China Visa Numbers

http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_032912.html

[gc_dec_2008]

Question to all experts!!..my PD Is Dec-16-2008, 485 Application was filed on Jan 20, USCIS wrongly rejected saying PD not current, Refiled on Feb2. Seems like my application is now buried in all Feb applications. Does USCIS Process based on PD or are they processing based on applications received? If its the latter, can I do something to push my application up in the queue?

[usernameisnotvalid]

Adios Amigos!!

will see you around 7th-8th May..


DOS Confirms Lack of Enough EB2 India / China Visa Numbers

http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_032912.html

[qesehmk]

So just to put this in perspective -

a) People will be able to continue to file 485s through 30th April. They are NOT changing the April bulletin.
b) However we should not expect ANY EB2IC approvals between now and end of April.
c) May 1st onwards some trickle may come down depending on what's teh situation with rest of the world and EB1 in particular.
d) This overall confirms that Sep 2012 dates will hover around Q1 2008.

[druvraj]

DOS Confirms Lack of Enough EB2 India / China Visa Numbers

http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_032912.html

If I understand the post, it effectively means no forward movement till October visa bulletin. Enjoy the summer and wait for the fall.

Someone in the DOS that I know very closely (I am from the DC area) vaguely hinted to me over lunch that govt does not particularly like giving GCs to Indians and Chinese so fast. They do believe that it is in their interest to keep them hanging. Please take it with a pinch of salt. It is just a test of our patience. They cannot deny it they can just delay it. Some would argue that Justice delayed is Justice Denied. Do not think that way and enjoy the summer with family and friends. We will all get it starting Oct or worst case next June.

[goforgreen]

So just to put this in perspective -

a) People will be able to continue to file 485s through 30th April. They are NOT changing the April bulletin.
b) However we should not expect ANY EB2IC approvals between now and end of April.
c) May 1st onwards some trickle may come down depending on what's teh situation with rest of the world and EB1 in particular.
d) This overall confirms that Sep 2012 dates will hover around Q1 2008.

Q, approvals will come but for only PD < Aug 15 2007 till Apr 30, after May 1 that is the date that is most likely going to be current so again approvals for only PD < Aug 15 2007. What I'm wondering is will they move dates starting in July or only in Oct. They are clearly throttling EB2IC, the question till when they will continue to do so. In a way this is good for people with PD < Aug 2007, they will get greened without losing visas to folks with PD of 2009.

[kumar19]

So just to put this in perspective -

a) People will be able to continue to file 485s through 30th April. They are NOT changing the April bulletin.
b) However we should not expect ANY EB2IC approvals between now and end of April.
c) May 1st onwards some trickle may come down depending on what's teh situation with rest of the world and EB1 in particular.
d) This overall confirms that Sep 2012 dates will hover around Q1 2008.

My PD is JUL 31 2007. With reference to "point b)" above, In general, should I also expect to not to see any progress during april month. ofcouse anything can happen but just would like to see your opinion.

[goforgreen]

I have to contradict your misguided post. I am from the DC area too BTW ...

Yes, and DOS is just following the law as it is. I dont think CO particuarly hates or likes any nationalities or immigrant group. He is trying to make sure no visas are wasted at the same time no country gets more than the share allowed as per law. During this people from Dec 2008 can get GC while people from July 2007 can get left hanging, its all luck, the same thing happened in 2008, people with PD of 2006 got greened while people with PD of 2004 were waiting. Now that throttling has started I hope there is a controlled movement and people get GCs in order of their PDs.

[qesehmk]

goforgreen - yes. i agree. But the cases w PD prior to 15 Aug 2007 are very few. They can't and will not keep the dates at 15 Aug 2007 for more than 3 months. Come July Bulletin the date will move forward.
Q, approvals will come but for only PD < Aug 15 2007 till Apr 30, after May 1 that is the date that is most likely going to be current so again approvals for only PD < Aug 15 2007. What I'm wondering is will they move dates starting in July or only in Oct. They are clearly throttling EB2IC, the question till when they will continue to do so. In a way this is good for people with PD < Aug 2007, they will get greened without losing visas to folks with PD of 2009.

Sorry .... you got a chance of approval since you are prior to the proposed PD. Wonder why are you stuck? Did you call USICIS ? Talked to your senator?

My PD is JUL 31 2007. With reference to "point b)" above, In general, should I also expect to not to see any progress during april month. ofcouse anything can happen but just would like to see your opinion.


Yes, and DOS is just following the law as it is. I dont think CO particuarly hates or likes any nationalities or immigrant group. He is trying to make sure no visas are wasted at the same time no country gets more than the share allowed as per law.
CO is a very competent person IMHO who is doing his job as his superiors expect him to do. In fact, this is not about ANY individual liking or not liking Indians or Chinese. This is about policies and institutional philosophy of what is in the best interest of USA. I do think ther eis a bias against Indians and Chinese and I do think it is institutional. I also happen to think that individuals working at State Dept are generally quite competent and that none of these movements forwards backward are haphazard. I think they are very well orchestrated movements.

[vizcard]

Question to all experts!!..my PD Is Dec-16-2008, 485 Application was filed on Jan 20, USCIS wrongly rejected saying PD not current, Refiled on Feb2. Seems like my application is now buried in all Feb applications. Does USCIS Process based on PD or are they processing based on applications received? If its the latter, can I do something to push my application up in the queue?

Not sure if you got your answer but I'll try to answer anyway. The USCIS loosely processes based on RD but its a grey area there as well. Bottom line is the difference between a Jan 20 filing and a Feb 2 filing is not much in the big scheme of things. Now with retrogression, you can be sure that you will not be short-changed. If approved, you will definitely get your GC before 2009 PDs (give or take considering you are almost a 2009 PD anyway).

There is nothing you can do now to push your case and as I mentioned above, its not going to matter anyway. The options available to "push" the case are available to everyone. Those ofcourse being talking to your Congressmen.

[mysati]

So just to put this in perspective -

a) People will be able to continue to file 485s through 30th April. They are NOT changing the April bulletin.
b) However we should not expect ANY EB2IC approvals between now and end of April.
c) May 1st onwards some trickle may come down depending on what's teh situation with rest of the world and EB1 in particular.
d) This overall confirms that Sep 2012 dates will hover around Q1 2008.

I am not an expert but just my 2 cents...don't mean to invoke fear or anxiety in anyone.

I think, this FY's resting point maybe anywhere between Q4, '07 and Q1, '08, based on the spillover available. But next FY, I think the spillover may start only late like previous years.

If you think about it, this year may not be a QSP, in its true sense. When EB2-I/C dates moved forward between Oct-Mar, all the new applications that were received during the period were treated as current like any other category that is current (EB1,EB2-ROW) and if they cleared the scrutiny got allocated a visa number immediately like any other current category. They realized, by now, EB2-I/C has overshot the numbers for the year and are retrogressing. At this point only, they are taking the allocation for the category truly into consideration.

Now that the pipeline is built and the category may not be current anytime sooner, the same process of MSP or QSP may not occur until such time it becomes current again, if at all.

This is just my thought process...feel free to tear it apart.

[mbasense]

CO is a very competent person IMHO who is doing his job as his superiors expect him to do. In fact, this is not about ANY individual liking or not liking Indians or Chinese. This is about policies and institutional philosophy of what is in the best interest of USA. I do think ther eis a bias against Indians and Chinese and I do think it is institutional. I also happen to think that individuals working at State Dept are generally quite competent and that none of these movements forwards backward are haphazard. I think they are very well orchestrated movements.

Q, that was very well put. none of these movements are haphazard.

Gurus,

it's been a while since I got my notices for EAD, AP and 485. still don't see them on the website, is this still an issue with most feb filers and beyond?

[suninphx]

Q, that was very well put. none of these movements are haphazard.

Gurus,

it's been a while since I got my notices for EAD, AP and 485. still don't see them on the website, is this still an issue with most feb filers and beyond?

TSC filers are facing this problem. NSC filers are able to track cases.

[druvraj]

I have to contradict your misguided post. I am from the DC area too BTW.

1. The dates will surely move and rest at around Q1-Q2 2008 as Q and other gurus have always predicted. Kudos to them. The memo only temporarily halts the GC issuance and they will start again latest by July.

2. I do have to take your comment with the entire salt container. If the government hated the Indians and the Chinese, why are they giving away so many GCs in EB1C? Why did they move the dates so rapidly for EB2? I very well can imagine that there are plenty of racially influenced people working in that department just like at any place in the society, but they don't seem to have much influence over how the dates are moved and how GCs are given. We all need to be thankful to CO for moving the dates so much especially now that he has to retrogress almost 3 years.


Sportsfan33 thank you for your comments. Just small clarification though I never used the word "hate". Please go back and read my post carefully. I never also never said that people in DOS are incompetant. All that I am saying is that US government is not very inclined in giving GC to Indians and Chinese so fast. Remember the irish clause that suddenly came up in the immigration. Will there be such clause for I&C. I don't think so. The lobbying that went into getting that that clause is just unprecedented.

Again just re-iterate the fact that some people feel are misguided, I never used the word hate for I believe it is a very strong word. I never used the word dislike too. What we have is law on our side and that is why i said we will get it sooner or later. Just think from the govt perspective we are not good voting block that they can take advantage of, we are very competitive and we are changing the demography of this nation.

Sportsfan33 please do not take so much salt as it is not good for health!!!! Good luck and all the best.

[usernameisnotvalid]

Somebody asked this question before I guess, I am not sure. Why doesn't CO make it 'U' instead of 15-Aug-2007? I mean that is what they are saying right? No Visas available.
Or Is it that they cannot modify the published VB and somehow expect some visa availability in first 7-8 days of April to publish May's VB with PD 15-Aug-2007.

I am totally confused.

[vizcard]

I am not an expert but just my 2 cents...don't mean to invoke fear or anxiety in anyone.

I think, this FY's resting point maybe anywhere between Q4, '07 and Q1, '08, based on the spillover available. But next FY, I think the spillover may start only late like previous years.

If you think about it, this year may not be a QSP, in its true sense. When EB2-I/C dates moved forward between Oct-Mar, all the new applications that were received during the period were treated as current like any other category that is current (EB1,EB2-ROW) and if they cleared the scrutiny got allocated a visa number immediately like any other current category. They realized, by now, EB2-I/C has overshot the numbers for the year and are retrogressing. At this point only, they are taking the allocation for the category truly into consideration.

Now that the pipeline is built and the category may not be current anytime sooner, the same process of MSP or QSP may not occur until such time it becomes current again, if at all.

This is just my thought process...feel free to tear it apart.

what you posted is definitely the worst case scenario. I do think we will see some minor movement in Q1 FY 2013.

[vizcard]

Sportsfan - I agree with everything you said except the "2009 filers getting greened before March 2013" bit. Depending on the amount of demand destruction, we could see all of 2009 cleared by SEPT 2013. I doubt all of 2009 will get cleared anyway but it will definitely not happen in March.

[Spectator]

The alternative to what has happened was a very controlled forward movement in the Cut Off Dates. Dates probably wouldn't have to move beyond the end of 2008 and retrogression would have been milder.

Ultimately, the visas would still have been used for the year, with the very outside possibility of a small amount of spillover falling to EB3 if USCIS didn't do their job.

The downside for DOS would be no great Inventory build up and the need to keep repeating the process every year, with the uncertainties associated with it.

The considerable downside for the applicants would be that PD2009 - May 2010 filers (at the very least) would still be waiting to file I-485. No possibility of AC21, no AP and no EAD for derivatives, more children aged out etc etc.

Large COD movement always meant a large retrogression because the number of visas available in FY2012 was a semi-fixed amount which could never cover approval of all filings.

Which cake did people want?

[Jonty Rhodes]

I have this question rising in my mind more out frustration and that is

Is there a better strategy of moving dates than what DOS and USCIS follow right now?

I mean in 2007, they made everyone current and then retrogressed the dates severely. That move did help lot of people to get their EAD but there were many more who were unlucky and had to wait very long. This year, they did the same thing and advanced dates very rapidly. Again, good for many people and there will be many unlucky ones who will be waiting for long time again.

If they keep following the same strategy, they will advance the dates rapidly again when they hit May 1, 2010 and experience a demand cliff in future and then obviously retrogress the dates severely.

Shouldn't the USCIS and DOS have any better way of knowing the demand than keep going through this Rapid Forward Movement followed by Severe Retrogression cycle?

[suninphx]

The alternative to what has happened was a very controlled forward movement in the Cut Off Dates. Dates probably wouldn't have to move beyond the end of 2008 and retrogression would have been milder.

Ultimately, the visas would still have been used for the year, with the very outside possibility of a small amount of spillover falling to EB3 if USCIS didn't do their job.

The downside for DOS would be no great Inventory build up and the need to keep repeating the process every year, with the uncertainties associated with it.

The considerable downside for the applicants would be that PD2009 - May 2010 filers (at the very least) would still be waiting to file I-485. No possibility of AC21, no AP and no EAD for derivatives, more children aged out etc etc.

Large COD movement always meant a large retrogression because the number of visas available in FY2012 was a semi-fixed amount which could never cover approval of all filings.

Which cake did people want?

Great post Spec!

Can you please conduct some tranining sessions(online) on 'articulation skills' for people like me? :)

[pdfeb09]

All Gurus, Please Help ! I know this is not the right thread for this question, but am posting it here for the visibility.

One of my friends is in the following situation:
1. 6th year of H1B and filed his labor during the 6th year. H1B expires in June sometime. If he captures some of the time spent outside the country, it may get him to start/mid August 2012.
2. Labor went into a random Audit. From the trackit trends that he observed and from talking to his attorney, he thinks it will set his labor decision back by at least 4 months.
3. According to him (I don't know the source), if you have filed your labor in the 6th year of H1B, you cannot get an extension of 1 year even if the labor is cleared. You have to have your 140 cleared and apply for 3 years.
4. Given all this, if his labor decision extends beyond July/August (beyond his H1b), what are his options to continue to stay in the country and continue with his GC process? His company is more than willing to keep him and will go extra miles if they have to (so long as everything is legal).

PS: I have already given him the address to this site and asked him to follow and pose the question.

[vizcard]

All Gurus, Please Help ! I know this is not the right thread for this question, but am posting it here for the visibility.

One of my friends is in the following situation:
1. 6th year of H1B and filed his labor during the 6th year. H1B expires in June sometime. If he captures some of the time spent outside the country, it may get him to start/mid August 2012.
2. Labor went into a random Audit. From the trackit trends that he observed and from talking to his attorney, he thinks it will set his labor decision back by at least 4 months.
3. According to him (I don't know the source), if you have filed your labor in the 6th year of H1B, you cannot get an extension of 1 year even if the labor is cleared. You have to have your 140 cleared and apply for 3 years.
4. Given all this, if his labor decision extends beyond July/August (beyond his H1b), what are his options to continue to stay in the country and continue with his GC process? His company is more than willing to keep him and will go extra miles if they have to (so long as everything is legal).

PS: I have already given him the address to this site and asked him to follow and pose the question.

the rule your friend is referring to is correct. You have to have applied 366 days before your H1B expires. I don't see any way of staying in the country once his H1B expires. Now if he wants to keep working for this company (and if his company wants him), they might have to literally go the extra mile.

Is it a multi-national company and whats his role ? He could potentially transfer to another office overseas (or in India) and return after a year with a brand new H1 or L1. If he comes as a L1, he doesn't need to go through the labor anyway. Ofcourse this doesn't help him stay in the country.

[Spectator]

All Gurus, Please Help ! I know this is not the right thread for this question, but am posting it here for the visibility.

One of my friends is in the following situation:
1. 6th year of H1B and filed his labor during the 6th year. H1B expires in June sometime. If he captures some of the time spent outside the country, it may get him to start/mid August 2012.
2. Labor went into a random Audit. From the trackit trends that he observed and from talking to his attorney, he thinks it will set his labor decision back by at least 4 months.
3. According to him (I don't know the source), if you have filed your labor in the 6th year of H1B, you cannot get an extension of 1 year even if the labor is cleared. You have to have your 140 cleared and apply for 3 years.
4. Given all this, if his labor decision extends beyond July/August (beyond his H1b), what are his options to continue to stay in the country and continue with his GC process? His company is more than willing to keep him and will go extra miles if they have to (so long as everything is legal).

PS: I have already given him the address to this site and asked him to follow and pose the question.He is corect that, pending or approved, the PERM must have been submitted and received at least 365 days prior to the date the extension takes effect to qualify for a 1 year extension. The approval of the PERM doesn't confer any advantage at all, unlike the I-140.

The best option IMO if the I-140 is not approved in time is to leave the USA and work remotely until the I-140 is approved (preferably with PP).

Alternatively, he could leave the USA for the number of days to make up to 365 days. In that case, he could claim back the days spent outside the USA and the 1 year extension together. It depends how many days short he is. I suspect that may be too long from the tone of your post.

Other options would be to a COS to L1A (with a 7 year limit), but that is a fairly unlikely scenario.

If the spouse is also on H1B, then COS to H4 and stopping working is an option.

Ultimately it is either leave the USA or change status. I don't like the B1/2 or F1 options - that is gaming the system IMO. There is always the possibility of denial, leaving him out of status and accumulating unlawful presence.

It's a tough place to be.

[immi2910]

All Gurus, Please Help ! I know this is not the right thread for this question, but am posting it here for the visibility.

One of my friends is in the following situation:
1. 6th year of H1B and filed his labor during the 6th year. H1B expires in June sometime. If he captures some of the time spent outside the country, it may get him to start/mid August 2012.
2. Labor went into a random Audit. From the trackit trends that he observed and from talking to his attorney, he thinks it will set his labor decision back by at least 4 months.
3. According to him (I don't know the source), if you have filed your labor in the 6th year of H1B, you cannot get an extension of 1 year even if the labor is cleared. You have to have your 140 cleared and apply for 3 years.
4. Given all this, if his labor decision extends beyond July/August (beyond his H1b), what are his options to continue to stay in the country and continue with his GC process? His company is more than willing to keep him and will go extra miles if they have to (so long as everything is legal).

PS: I have already given him the address to this site and asked him to follow and pose the question.

I-140 premium takes 2 to 3 weeks. So as soon as his Labor is approved he should file premium I-140 and then extend his H1. If labor approval happens after Jul/Aug he will have to remain outside of USA until his labor is approved; I-140 approved and extension filed.

[feedmyback]

Sportsfan, I agree with what you said. And I am anticipating that next year too they will follow a MSP or QSP just to clear out as many cases as possible to avoid renewing EADs and APs for free :). Bottom line as you said is that with so much work load on them already, I am sure they will not be foolish to spend time on renewing EADs for free which is an easily avoidable extra work. And without MSP or QSP, I don't see how they will be able to give out GCs for so many by this time next year. Let us wait and watch.


In that case, the USCIS is looking to renew a few thousand EAD and AP applications for free, and they will not like it. they are constrained as it is with manpower. I am sure there is some logic behind the movement as Q himself has explained. Until I see them renewing EAD/AP without any revenue, I will continue believing they can clear most of "pre-adjudicated" applications until next March. Otherwise, I have to say that CO overplayed his hand too much and burned USCIS in the process, which is pretty stupid because even without much transparent data, the gurus here had been predicting Q1-2008 as the cut off for green card for FY 2012.

[Kanmani]

Spec
Having been started the process of PR , is it possible for the individual to convert to B1/F1 which are non-dual intent category?

[Spectator]

CO hinted pretty heavily in a statement some time ago that USCIS were squealing about the possibility of having to renew EAD/AP for free. CO was more concerned, rightly so at the time, about USCIS capacity to approve enough cases in time. I believe that is, in part, why USCIS started approving EB2-IC cases so quickly and in the numbers they have. Essentially, they were told to "put up or shut up".

Besides, USCIS had the option to grant 2 year EAD cards - it appears they chose not to pursue that route, or perhaps a 2 year combi card with AP is not available. I've never seen a confirmed report of one being issued.

I certainly have seen people with a current PD being issued 2 year EAD cards and know one personally.

[sreddy]

I thought they are moving quarterly this year, and only 2 quarters quota was utilized so far. Am I wrong?


If I understand the post, it effectively means no forward movement till October visa bulletin. Enjoy the summer and wait for the fall.

Someone in the DOS that I know very closely (I am from the DC area) vaguely hinted to me over lunch that govt does not particularly like giving GCs to Indians and Chinese so fast. They do believe that it is in their interest to keep them hanging. Please take it with a pinch of salt. It is just a test of our patience. They cannot deny it they can just delay it. Some would argue that Justice delayed is Justice Denied. Do not think that way and enjoy the summer with family and friends. We will all get it starting Oct or worst case next June.

[Spectator]

Spec
Having been started the process of PR , is it possible for the individual to convert to B1/F1 which are non-dual intent category?Kanmani,

I only mentioned it for sake of completeness. I don't think it is a viable solution.

I have seen cases of COS being approved in various forums, but clearly they are then "landlocked", because they will have a very difficult time getting a Visa stamped to return because of the potential immigrant intent. Having said that, the filing of PERM for a person doesn't meet that threshold. What they would have difficulty with, is proving they have a foreign residence they have no intent of abandoning and that they intend to return at the end of visa period or upon completion of their studies as appropriate.

My 2c.

[Kanmani]

Thanks Spec.
I heard of situations where parents with previously stamped visitor visas were denied admissions at port of entry after their PR application is filed . I have not seen real time experiences though.

[mbasense]

TSC filers are facing this problem. NSC filers are able to track cases.

thanks suninphx

[vizcard]

Sportsfan, I agree with what you said. And I am anticipating that next year too they will follow a MSP or QSP just to clear out as many cases as possible to avoid renewing EADs and APs for free :). Bottom line as you said is that with so much work load on them already, I am sure they will not be foolish to spend time on renewing EADs for free which is an easily avoidable extra work. And without MSP or QSP, I don't see how they will be able to give out GCs for so many by this time next year. Let us wait and watch.


CO hinted pretty heavily in a statement some time ago that USCIS were squealing about the possibility of having to renew EAD/AP for free. CO was more concerned, rightly so at the time, about USCIS capacity to approve enough cases in time. I believe that is, in part, why USCIS started approving EB2-IC cases so quickly and in the numbers they have. Essentially, they were told to "put up or shut up".

Besides, USCIS had the option to grant 2 year EAD cards - it appears they chose not to pursue that route, or perhaps a 2 year combi card with AP is not available. I've never seen a confirmed report of one being issued.

I certainly have seen people with a current PD being issued 2 year EAD cards and know one personally.

Obviously having to process EADs for free may be the stick that they need to process work quickly. But its not the only constraint. Numbers and more important laws play a major role here. :)

[jkrocks]

I got a RFE on my 485, so defnitely all the Jan filers, should have hope, as i see that USCIS is still processing applications. Still waiting on my wife application which is still showing as intial review.

PD June 26 '2008
RCVD Date: Jan 9, 2012.
SRC12901058**

I am still waiting on letter, will update.

PUSH- Pray Untill Something Happens!..

[Spectator]

I agree. My concluding remark is that the movement seems to be orchestrated to ensure that a) visas wont be wasted, and b) the USCIS won't process applications for free. If I was a US government agency, in all honesty, I would be more concerned about b than a, because visas can always be taken by EB3. There was no need for such an aggressive move unless they had some assurance of cleaning up a majority of cases within an year. Let's see how this plays out.sportsfan,

If the government agencies were truly co-ordinated, with the same goals, I would agree with you. But they are not, and DHS and DOS do not work well together.

DOS only primary concern is (a). I don't think they will deliberately make USCIS life difficult, but (b) is not DOS concern if it might interfere with (a). Under use of spillover in EB2 would be seen as a failure. Only USCIS would rank (b) higher than (a).

The COD movement to 01MAY10 will probably bring in the order of 50k new applications, of which not more than 15k might get used this year. That leaves 35k, plus any future porting cases, for FY2013 and beyond.

In a situation where EB5 numbers are increasing and EB1 has come back to full usage and the economy is improving, it is difficult to see where the visas would come for your scenario. EB2-non IC might yield more visas in the near future, but there are limits to that increase.

I honestly can't see the new backlog being cleared until FY2014 under any circumstances.

[pdfeb09]

I think the consensus then is that, he will have to go out of the country if 140 doesn't clear up before his H1 expires. The best he can do then, is minimize his time outside.


the rule your friend is referring to is correct. You have to have applied 366 days before your H1B expires. I don't see any way of staying in the country once his H1B expires. Now if he wants to keep working for this company (and if his company wants him), they might have to literally go the extra mile.

Is it a multi-national company and whats his role ? He could potentially transfer to another office overseas (or in India) and return after a year with a brand new H1 or L1. If he comes as a L1, he doesn't need to go through the labor anyway. Ofcourse this doesn't help him stay in the country.

Thank you vizcard !
I was afraid about the rule being correct. He does have a good law firm working for his company. The company is huge and is multinational. They are even thinking about moving him to Canada for some time until he can get back in.


He is corect that, pending or approved, the PERM must have been submitted and received at least 365 days prior to the date the extension takes effect to qualify for a 1 year extension. The approval of the PERM doesn't confer any advantage at all, unlike the I-140.

The best option IMO if the I-140 is not approved in time is to leave the USA and work remotely until the I-140 is approved (preferably with PP).

Alternatively, he could leave the USA for the number of days to make up to 365 days. In that case, he could claim back the days spent outside the USA and the 1 year extension together. It depends how many days short he is. I suspect that may be too long from the tone of your post.

Other options would be to a COS to L1A (with a 7 year limit), but that is a fairly unlikely scenario.

If the spouse is also on H1B, then COS to H4 and stopping working is an option.

Ultimately it is either leave the USA or change status. I don't like the B1/2 or F1 options - that is gaming the system IMO. There is always the possibility of denial, leaving him out of status and accumulating unlawful presence.

It's a tough place to be.
Thank you Spectator !
You are the best ! Can he even get to L1A by COS? If there is a chance, his company may even consider it.
No, unfortunately his wife is on H4. I don't think he prefers to go on B1/B2 and neither does his company. Being a huge company, they would rather spend some dough and bring him back in later rather than mess with the law for this particular case. F1 is also out of question since he will have to be a full time student with at least 9 credits registered for a semester, and discharge his office duties (illegal).

I like your suggestion about leaving the country, especially since his company is willing and capable, before his H1 really expires and wait for his I140 to come through. He can then claim to have some time left on his H1 and return immediately and extend his status using 140. Is that possible?




I-140 premium takes 2 to 3 weeks. So as soon as his Labor is approved he should file premium I-140 and then extend his H1. If labor approval happens after Jul/Aug he will have to remain outside of USA until his labor is approved; I-140 approved and extension filed.
Thanks immi2910 ! Yes, once he gets his labor in hand I 140 will definitely be a premium processing. And you are right, I think I understand what you are saying about leaving the country with some H1 time left, so he can file for extension and return. He will not be able to do that if he lets his H1 expire before going out.

Spec
Having been started the process of PR , is it possible for the individual to convert to B1/F1 which are non-dual intent category?


Kanmani,

I only mentioned it for sake of completeness. I don't think it is a viable solution.

I have seen cases of COS being approved in various forums, but clearly they are then "landlocked", because they will have a very difficult time getting a Visa stamped to return because of the potential immigrant intent. Having said that, the filing of PERM for a person doesn't meet that threshold. What they would have difficulty with, is proving they have a foreign residence they have no intent of abandoning and that they intend to return at the end of visa period or upon completion of their studies as appropriate.

My 2c.


Thanks Spec.
I heard of situations where parents with previously stamped visitor visas were denied admissions at port of entry after their PR application is filed . I have not seen real time experiences though.
Thank you Kanmani and Spec for exploring this possibility.

Thanks for all your help !!

[leo4ever]

Spec,

I received a 2 yr combo card.

[Besides, USCIS had the option to grant 2 year EAD cards - it appears they chose not to pursue that route, or perhaps a 2 year combi card with AP is not available. I've never seen a confirmed report of one being issued.

I certainly have seen people with a current PD being issued 2 year EAD cards and know one personally.[/QUOTE]

[goforgreen]

This is for people like me who after filing in last few months have not got GC, something to lighten the mood and also its friday :-) . The other day I was thinking about the similarities between the gurus here and our Indian cricket team greats

Ganguly - Q, for being the pioneer and captain and giving the confidence to the folks here like Ganguly did to the Indian team of 90s and 2000s

Dravid - Teddy, ever the hard working and disciplined and always a team man sharing credit with others

Laxman - Spec, for his sublime touch and articulation

Sehwag - Soggadu, for not having the time and patience to do analysis (like Sehwag not having the patience for defence and technique) but hitting the ball out for a six with his wit and humour

[bvsamrat]

The million dollar (Mega) question is : If it is so clear that so many applications would come that could take upto 2014 to clear, what made to advance the dates to add so many applications in the first place?.

There may be some other reason or some change in the game plan of allocations or spill over rules.


sportsfan,

If the government agencies were truly co-ordinated, with the same goals, I would agree with you. But they are not, and DHS and DOS do not work well together.

DOS only primary concern is (a). I don't think they will deliberately make USCIS life difficult, but (b) is not DOS concern if it might interfere with (a). Under use of spillover in EB2 would be seen as a failure. Only USCIS would rank (b) higher than (a).

The COD movement to 01MAY10 will probably bring in the order of 50k new applications, of which not more than 15k might get used this year. That leaves 35k, plus any future porting cases, for FY2013 and beyond.

In a situation where EB5 numbers are increasing and EB1 has come back to full usage and the economy is improving, it is difficult to see where the visas would come for your scenario. EB2-non IC might yield more visas in the near future, but there are limits to that increase.

I honestly can't see the new backlog being cleared until FY2014 under any circumstances.

[mysati]

Spec,

I received a 2 yr combo card.

[Besides, USCIS had the option to grant 2 year EAD cards - it appears they chose not to pursue that route, or perhaps a 2 year combi card with AP is not available. I've never seen a confirmed report of one being issued.

I certainly have seen people with a current PD being issued 2 year EAD cards and know one personally.[/QUOTE]

On a lighter note, What a waste of a 2yr. combo card!!! In your case, a 2 week combo card would have sufficed :D

[JJcalifornian]

All Gurus, Please Help ! I know this is not the right thread for this question, but am posting it here for the visibility.

One of my friends is in the following situation:
1. 6th year of H1B and filed his labor during the 6th year. H1B expires in June sometime. If he captures some of the time spent outside the country, it may get him to start/mid August 2012.
2. Labor went into a random Audit. From the trackit trends that he observed and from talking to his attorney, he thinks it will set his labor decision back by at least 4 months.
3. According to him (I don't know the source), if you have filed your labor in the 6th year of H1B, you cannot get an extension of 1 year even if the labor is cleared. You have to have your 140 cleared and apply for 3 years.
4. Given all this, if his labor decision extends beyond July/August (beyond his H1b), what are his options to continue to stay in the country and continue with his GC process? His company is more than willing to keep him and will go extra miles if they have to (so long as everything is legal).

PS: I have already given him the address to this site and asked him to follow and pose the question.


Is there a way he can file another labor with a slightly modified job code/description or for a different location, so that it may get clear before Aug2012.

[mesan123]

Spec

So if you think the current backlog will be cleared by FY2014. do you mean end of FY 2014? and when do you expect the dates move beyond may 2010?





sportsfan,

If the government agencies were truly co-ordinated, with the same goals, I would agree with you. But they are not, and DHS and DOS do not work well together.

DOS only primary concern is (a). I don't think they will deliberately make USCIS life difficult, but (b) is not DOS concern if it might interfere with (a). Under use of spillover in EB2 would be seen as a failure. Only USCIS would rank (b) higher than (a).

The COD movement to 01MAY10 will probably bring in the order of 50k new applications, of which not more than 15k might get used this year. That leaves 35k, plus any future porting cases, for FY2013 and beyond.

In a situation where EB5 numbers are increasing and EB1 has come back to full usage and the economy is improving, it is difficult to see where the visas would come for your scenario. EB2-non IC might yield more visas in the near future, but there are limits to that increase.

I honestly can't see the new backlog being cleared until FY2014 under any circumstances.

[vizcard]

The million dollar (Mega) question is : If it is so clear that so many applications would come that could take upto 2014 to clear, what made to advance the dates to add so many applications in the first place?.

There may be some other reason or some change in the game plan of allocations or spill over rules.

1. Lack of visibility to actual demand at the time it happened
2. Higher than actual expectation of SOFAD
3. To give as many people EAD as possible


Spec

So if you think the current backlog will be cleared by FY2014. do you mean end of FY 2014? and when do you expect the dates move beyond may 2010?

I'm not Spec but my guesstimate is the earliest it'll move past may 2010 is early to mid FY2014.

[goforgreen]

1. Lack of visibility to actual demand at the time it happened
2. Higher than actual expectation of SOFAD
3. To give as many people EAD as possible


I would agree with 1,2 but not 3. Why would USCIS/DOS care for giving EADs to as many people as possible.

[Pdmar08]

I would agree with 1,2 but not 3. Why would USCIS/DOS care for giving EADs to as many people as possible.

Call me whatever but i wont rule out election year politics.
Remember the all dates were current in 2007 and big forward movements started in 2011.
One of my friends had remarked(much before i joined the forum and much before i could see any light) that it will move when elections get close.
Again, may or may not be true but i believe it.

[imdeng]

Pre-GC India/China people, who number in maybe a couple hundred thousands, who can't even vote, can't even donate to political campaigns are hardly the constituency that the political folks will go out of their way to pander, especially when there is also a slight risk of pissing off the nativist group in the country. I doubt that election year politics has any role to play in PD movement - surely not on the positive side.

Call me whatever but i wont rule out election year politics.
Remember the all dates were current in 2007 and big forward movements started in 2011.
One of my friends had remarked(much before i joined the forum and much before i could see any light) that it will move when elections get close.
Again, may or may not be true but i believe it.

[idiotic]

Spec

So if you think the current backlog will be cleared by FY2014. do you mean end of FY 2014? and when do you expect the dates move beyond may 2010?


I think all of the gurus should throw their thoughts on these two questions in the EB2 predictions link and keep on updating them. The same question will pop up again and again for sure.

=> Approx timeline for current backlog till May 2010 to be cleared
=> When will dates start move past May 2010 to give more people EAD/AP

[usernameisnotvalid]

For 2007 when they made everybody current, there was a conspiracy theory as why they did it and it was that President Bush was pushing an immigration overhaul bill with the help from Sen McCain and the anticipation was that it would pass. Because of that they wanted to clear all the backlogs.

Again a conspiracy theory!



Pre-GC India/China people, who number in maybe a couple hundred thousands, who can't even vote, can't even donate to political campaigns are hardly the constituency that the political folks will go out of their way to pander, especially when there is also a slight risk of pissing off the nativist group in the country. I doubt that election year politics has any role to play in PD movement - surely not on the positive side.

[qesehmk]

Thanks for asking. I was being a bit lazy .... I have updated the header. Will again update in 2 weeks.
I think all of the gurus should throw their thoughts on these two questions in the EB2 predictions link and keep on updating them. The same question will pop up again and again for sure.

=> Approx timeline for current backlog till May 2010 to be cleared
=> When will dates start move past May 2010 to give more people EAD/AP

[TeddyKoochu]

- @codesmith congratulations to you and your family on GC.
- @sportsfan33 I finally got my approval on 15th Mar.

[makmohan]

For 2007 when they made everybody current, there was a conspiracy theory as why they did it and it was that President Bush was pushing an immigration overhaul bill with the help from Sen McCain and the anticipation was that it would pass. Because of that they wanted to clear all the backlogs.

Again a conspiracy theory!

Legal immigrants (especially EB* and H1Bs) are not relevant for Presidential politics. Undocumented immigrants are. One might argue that EB* are future voters but the time has shown that same people later vote based on their ideology than based on a thought of voting against who troubled them during GC process. Otherwise there would have been a big fundraising push against Grr$$leeyy by EB* community. There seems none.

So all these conspiracy theories are futile. Sit back n relax, and let's keep chanting - "mera number kab ayega" (when will I get my number?) !

[redbull099]

Hi, This is my first post.

Have a question reg. the EAD approvals in the current scenario. In light of the predictions/confirmation of internal retrogression, I haven't seen any EAD approvals in trackitt 485 tracker (sort by EAD approval date) after March 23rd 2012. So, my question is: if the dates retrogress, what happens to our EAD/AP approvals for most of the recent 485 filers who did nt receive the EAD yet.

If the dates go back to 2007, do I stand to receive the EAD/AP even though my priority date is March 2009 ? Or will the applications be shelved till my PD is current again ?

My current H1 is expiring in Sept 2012. I was hoping to receive the EAD so that I dont have to go through the H1B process again.

Any thoughts are appreciated.

PD: March 14 2009
485 app Recd Dt: Feb 24 2012
No FP notice so far.

[idiotic]

Thanks for asking. I was being a bit lazy .... I have updated the header. Will again update in 2 weeks.

Thanks Qesehmk. I somehow feel that suddenly building a huge pile of applications and then waiting for 3 years to get over them and then repeating the process again will not be preferred way if the movement was indeed orchestrated. They will eventually converge on something like letting in as many people as were approved the previous year thereby maintaining a constant backlog at any point. I am not sure how they can do such a thing without breaking current laws.

[imdeng]

PD Retrogression has not effect on EAD processing. There are EADs being issued every day - even today several EADs went out. 6 of them went out just from NSC yesterday in trackitt. You might want to check your trackitt search parameters. With 02-24 RD, you should expect EAD most probably in second-third week of April, assuming you are in NSC - TSC is faster by some 20 days right now.

Hi, This is my first post.

Have a question reg. the EAD approvals in the current scenario. In light of the predictions/confirmation of internal retrogression, I haven't seen any EAD approvals in trackitt 485 tracker (sort by EAD approval date) after March 23rd 2012. So, my question is: if the dates retrogress, what happens to our EAD/AP approvals for most of the recent 485 filers who did nt receive the EAD yet.

If the dates go back to 2007, do I stand to receive the EAD/AP even though my priority date is March 2009 ? Or will the applications be shelved till my PD is current again ?

My current H1 is expiring in Sept 2012. I was hoping to receive the EAD so that I dont have to go through the H1B process again.

Any thoughts are appreciated.

PD: March 14 2009
485 app Recd Dt: Feb 24 2012
No FP notice so far.

[gomesnj]

Hi,

I am a recent filer of I485 sent to USCIS on Mar 23th, RD: 03/26/2012, PD: 02/11/2010 EB2.
The below link in murthy says that all I485 needs to wait for approval who all applied after Mar 23rd.
http://murthy.com/nflash/nf_032912.html
Does it mean that if the dates retrogress to Aug 15 2007, the EAD/AP for the recent filers like me has to wait or
will the EAD/AP will be approved as the dates are current as of now.
Please advise

[mbasense]

Hi, This is my first post.

Have a question reg. the EAD approvals in the current scenario. In light of the predictions/confirmation of internal retrogression, I haven't seen any EAD approvals in trackitt 485 tracker (sort by EAD approval date) after March 23rd 2012. So, my question is: if the dates retrogress, what happens to our EAD/AP approvals for most of the recent 485 filers who did nt receive the EAD yet.



redbull099 : i have been 'trackking' that list everyday, I have seen a lot of EAD approvals , one even came in today 03/30, but of late more of Neb. approvals are coming in, Texas seems to have slowed down. Anyway EAD/AP processing and approval must happen irrespective of 485 PD.

[idiotic]

Hi,

I am a recent filer of I485 sent to USCIS on Mar 23th, RD: 03/26/2012, PD: 02/11/2010 EB2.
The below link in murthy says that all I485 needs to wait for approval who all applied after Mar 23rd.
http://murthy.com/nflash/nf_032912.html
Does it mean that if the dates retrogress to Aug 15 2007, the EAD/AP for the recent filers like me has to wait or
will the EAD/AP will be approved as the dates are current as of now.
Please advise


EB3 is not current yet for many people who filed EAD in 2007. But they will continue to get extension. I think it is same case. EAD / AP approval dont need your PD to be current.

[mesan123]

On a lighter note....who is playing Mega Million tonight :)

Will remove this post by night.....

Should We have Q led team for that and play :) ....our Soggadu , Nishanth , Teddy, Spec, kanmani,leo & rest of Q family anyone can join.....

By the way if we win, we can buy our Green Cards in short time.... :)

[bhala5]

redbull099 : i have been 'trackking' that list everyday, I have seen a lot of EAD approvals , one even came in today 03/30, but of late more of Neb. approvals are coming in, Texas seems to have slowed down. Anyway EAD/AP processing and approval must happen irrespective of 485 PD.

Hi Guru's ,

I dont understand behind the logic how NSC issueing EAD/AP/FP's. Who applied after Me they got all but I dont get anything as of now. I want to book the flight ticket for my family since they were never see home country around 1275 days.
We live in Bay Area because of that or which reason they are issuing AP/EAD/FP notices whoever applied after me.(TSC people all gets in hand same my date (help :trackitt)
Whenever/whereever always delay after waiting long period of time, getting frustrated.

What is my recived date in that case. please help !!!

FYI..All applied same time .

Acceptance
On February 7, 2012, your fingerprint fee was accepted and we have mailed you a notice
Initial Review
On February 3, 2012, we received this I131 APPLICATION FOR USCIS TRAVEL
Initial Review
On February 3, 2012, we received this I765 APPLICATION FOR EMPLOYMENT

PD: 02/25/2009 RD : 02/03/2012, ND: 02/08/2012: NRD: 02/14/2012.
I already open SR asked to wait 15 more days from 03/18.

Same with my neighbour except his RD:02/08/2012 PD: 02/25/2009

Please help!!!

[bookworm]

On a lighter note....who is playing Mega Million tonight :)

Will remove this post by night.....

Should We have Q led team for that and play :) ....our Soggadu , Nishanth , Teddy, Spec, kanmani,leo & rest of Q family anyone can join.....

By the way if we win, we can buy our Green Cards in short time.... :)

Mega Million has a better probability than NSC processing our EAD/AP...

The question I have is.... why would they setup a service center in Lincoln, Nebraska? Would any competent person be willing to go live in Lincoln, NE?

[bvsamrat]

Once again I tend to agree with sportsfan33. By this year end, previous dates(May 2010) should come back to be current. All the information(such as more EB1s etc. etc. ) is very well known at the time of advancing the date to May2010 . Also CO had hinted long time back about possible retrogression in the coming months It shows that he had a plan.Time will tell!.


Thanks for your feedback spec. So our opinions differ by about 1 year right now. I would have agreed to yours if the EAD/AP were given out for 2 years. In fact, I was saying from the very beginning that they were collecting a 2 year inventory. However in light of the EAD/AP duration, I think this is a 1 year inventory only.

You are right at the moment and I have nothing to go by but my gut feeling. It's possible that CO exaggerated about the demand and the EB1 usage. It's possible that a "lot of approvable" cases from 2007 and 2008 are approved already and the difficult ones will take 1 to 2 year anyway and their demand will be slow to show up. As I said, when I actually see the USCIS renewing EAD/AP for free, I will believe that they have too much demand and they overplayed their hand for no good reason.

Disclaimer: Anyone who wants to make future plans should listen to spec and not me, because it is more likely that he is correct. If you still want to listen to me, you should also buy yourself a ticket for the mega lottery draw tonight for well over half a billion dollar pot.

[vizcard]

Once again I tend to agree with sportsfan33. By this year end, previous dates(May 2010) should come back to be current. All the information(such as more EB1s etc. etc. ) is very well known at the time of advancing the date to May2010 . Also CO had hinted long time back about possible retrogression in the coming months It shows that he had a plan.Time will tell!.

It's good to be optimistic but there's also a time to be realistic. They CANNOT make May 2010 current by Dec 2012. It's not numerically possible. It was fuzzy numbers till now but starting now, the DOS and USCIS are dealing with real numbers. Q said he would put an updated analysis in 2 weeks. Please read that.

Dec 2012 === Sep 2008 PDs in a best case scenario (unless HR3012 becomes law)

[eb2visa]

Don't worry, even Texas is also too fast, I received my EAD cards yesterday, approved with in a month. Hope for the best.


redbull099 : i have been 'trackking' that list everyday, I have seen a lot of EAD approvals , one even came in today 03/30, but of late more of Neb. approvals are coming in, Texas seems to have slowed down. Anyway EAD/AP processing and approval must happen irrespective of 485 PD.

[bvsamrat]

I beleive some changes are in the offing. Once again this my gut feeling and observation on what happened last 8-10 years


It's good to be optimistic but there's also a time to be realistic. They CANNOT make May 2010 current by Dec 2012. It's not numerically possible. It was fuzzy numbers till now but starting now, the DOS and USCIS are dealing with real numbers. Q said he would put an updated analysis in 2 weeks. Please read that.

Dec 2012 === Sep 2008 PDs in a best case scenario (unless HR3012 becomes law)

[HR3012]

Hi Guru's ,

I dont understand behind the logic how NSC issueing EAD/AP/FP's. Who applied after Me they got all but I dont get anything as of now. I want to book the flight ticket for my family since they were never see home country around 1275 days.
We live in Bay Area because of that or which reason they are issuing AP/EAD/FP notices whoever applied after me.(TSC people all gets in hand same my date (help :trackitt)
Whenever/whereever always delay after waiting long period of time, getting frustrated.

What is my recived date in that case. please help !!!

FYI..All applied same time .

Acceptance
On February 7, 2012, your fingerprint fee was accepted and we have mailed you a notice
Initial Review
On February 3, 2012, we received this I131 APPLICATION FOR USCIS TRAVEL
Initial Review
On February 3, 2012, we received this I765 APPLICATION FOR EMPLOYMENT

PD: 02/25/2009 RD : 02/03/2012, ND: 02/08/2012: NRD: 02/14/2012.
I already open SR asked to wait 15 more days from 03/18.

Same with my neighbour except his RD:02/08/2012 PD: 02/25/2009

Please help!!!

relax bhala, you will get it. I didn't receive mine yet... waiting patiently for the 90 day mark to open SR...

[goforgreen]

I beleive some changes are in the offing. Once again this my gut feeling and observation on what happened last 8-10 years

Not to throw water on your hopes, but nothing will change unless there is change in law. EB2I&C have a wait time of 4-5 years to get GC, except for few lucky people who get in 3+ years that timeframe is going to continue. I dont want to discourage anyone but that is the what I've realised after waiting for 4+ years.

[abcx13]

I believe there is no good source for the % of PERMs that are EB2. I was digging through the PDFs on the DOL-ETA OFLC website and found the following two that might be relevant:

http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf
http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=OFLC_FY2006_Annual_R eport.pdf

The first PDF shows 37% + 4% of PERMs having MS or above. This is for a random sample of 22k active PERMs as of 5/31/2011. Not broken down by country. You could probably get a better upper bound by seeing what percentage of PERMs are IC as a % of total PERMs. You can then get an upper bound on EB2-IC % by assuming all the MS PERMs were IC. Or haircut it by whatever amount you think is appropriate. Either way, you get an estimate of EB2-IC as % of total PERMs certified.

The second one is an older document but shows on pg 17 that abt 50% of Indian PERMs had a MS or higher and about 60% of Chinese PERMs. So I would probably assume a 50-55% EB2-IC PERM ratio closer to the 50% considering that Indian PERMs far exceed Chinese PERMs.

Also curious what number for EB2% came out of this suggestion in this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?66-Significant-Sources-of-Data-for-use-in-Calculations):



12) Prevailing Wage Determination Data

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm

The latest addition to the disclosure list. Possibly useful in determining the EB2 to EB3 ratio, since it contains minimum education and experience requirements, but NOT Country data.


It's a pain that we have to guess this crap. DoL has all the numbers cut by country of origin and education levels. Just release the damn thing already.

I guess once we have the May demand data we will have a better sense of the OR and we can try to speculate what DD is if we use these numbers as estimates for the EB2%, Trackitt data for Dependent ratio and some other estimate for I140 approval rate (this last one is the weak link right now).

This is fun! (Waiting for GC is not fun though - my PERM hasn't even been filed yet - will be later this year - but I like to know what I'm getting into. Let's hope HR3012 passes Senate).

[Spectator]

Also curious what number for EB2% came out of this suggestion in this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?66-Significant-Sources-of-Data-for-use-in-Calculations):
If you are referring to the PWD data, the results can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Determination-Data-Analysis).

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends following are my thoughts about the current situation.

- Retrogression happening was a foregone conclusion however what is more important is the resting point by the end of Sep 2012.

- By law only 54% numbers can be used in Q1 and Q2 so we still have the remaining 46%.

- Next quarter another 27% are available so hopefully the approvals will happen again (01-APR) for EB2 I/C however in a more measured way especially from 01-May when retrogression will kick in. It will be really interesting to see the pace and the PD’s of the cases being approved in April this will be a key parameter in setting the retrogression point. As of now there are Oct filers still waiting without any kind of RFE (Some cases have been notified of additional review) & still a significant number of Nov & Dec Filers. I believe that the May bulletin retrogression point will not be as drastic as 15th Aug 2007.

- There is another scenario wherein the 27% limit was actually exceeded because at the field level any case can be approved because the corresponding dates are current assuming no circuit breakers are in place if, in this case we should see very few EB2 I/C approvals in April and probably for the rest of the year as well.

- The estimations from agencies have really revolved around extremes unfortunates as in demand being reported as too low and then all of a sudden it becomes too high, probably they have discovered the glitch in the Jan inventory.

- EB2 ROW holds the key to our fortunes since Eb1 usage has been reported closer to the annual cap itself.



http://murthy.com/nflash/nf_032912.html

The Department of State (DOS) provided the Murthy Law Firm with confirmation today that, effective March 23, 2012, the EB2 cutoff date has been retrogressed internally to August 15, 2007. This means that the USCIS will not be able to approve further EB2 I-485 cases with priority dates that fall on or after August 15, 2007 at this time. These cases can be processed, but not approved, without visa numbers available.


From Ron Gotcher - That rumor that has been going around has still not been confirmed on either the USCIS or AILA web sites. While it seems as though the government can do anything it wants these days, the law prohibits the use of more than 30% of the overall quota in any of the first three fiscal quarters. Tomorrow is the end of the second fiscal quarter, so if they are following the law, they have not used more than 60% of the total quota.
Friends Iam bumping my previous post up in light of the news and guidance by Murthy and Gotcher both noted law firms in their own right.
Those with a PD of prior to 15thAug are PWMB cases, those cases which are in some kind of extended review or porting. I believe that there would not be more than 2000 such cases.
The internal memo news setting the PD as 15th Aug 2007 can be taken to be as moderate to drastic, moderate in the sense that 1500 – 2000 is still a healthy number to approve if all these cases are approved in April itself it could be a drastic situation if indeed the haloed lines were crossed in approving cases in the first 6 months. Most initial estimates of SOAFD were in the 25K range and by even by liberal standards we have seen atleast 20K approvals.
Now if indeed quarterly allocation limits are being adhered to then there are still at minimum 10K numbers left, DOS is normally cautious in moving dates and if this is true we could still have a pretty good ending likely somewhere in the Jan filers zone i.e. 15th Mar – 31st Dec 2008.
So lets wait and watch what really happens in the first 15 days of April, approvals seem to have slowed down. EB2 ROW approvals are far more visible now.

[Spectator]

Friends Iam bumping my previous post up in light of the news and guidance by Murthy and Gotcher both noted law firms in their own right.
Those with a PD of prior to 15thAug are PWMB cases, those cases which are in some kind of extended review or porting. I believe that there would not be more than 2000 such cases.
The internal memo news setting the PD as 15th Aug 2007 can be taken to be as moderate to drastic, moderate in the sense that 1500 – 2000 is still a healthy number to approve if all these cases are approved in April itself it could be a drastic situation if indeed the haloed lines were crossed in approving cases in the first 6 months. Most initial estimates of SOAFD were in the 25K range and by even by liberal standards we have seen atleast 20K approvals.
Now if indeed quarterly allocation limits are being adhered to then there are still at minimum 10K numbers left, DOS is normally cautious in moving dates and if this is true we could still have a pretty good ending likely somewhere in the Jan filers zone i.e. 15th Mar – 31st Dec 2008.
So lets wait and watch what really happens in the first 15 days of April, approvals seem to have slowed down. EB2 ROW approvals are far more visible now.Teddy,

As always, thanks for your thoughts.

I think your estimate for PWMB before 15AUG07 is about right.

In addition, I think we also have to allow for 6 months worth of Porting cases. I still see those being approved on a regular basis and no reason for them to slow.

Could you just clarify your numbers?

If EB2-IC SOFAD is 25k and 20k have already been used, then that is 5k left.

You mention at least 10k to come. Is that an allowance for EB1 probably providing 5k, despite CO's announcement?

[Spectator]

Here's the Bi-Monthly update of applications added to Trackitt since October 1, 2011.

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 -- Mar 15 -- Mar 31 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 ----- 145 ----- 152 (+_ 7 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 ----- 487 ----- 518 (+ 31 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 ----- 630 ----- 711 (+ 81 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 ----- 732 ----- 863 (+131 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 ----- 514 ----- 677 (+163 cases)
March VB ---- PD Jan 01 2010 to Apr 30 2010 ------------------------------------------------------- 72 ----- 133 (+ 61 cases)


This is the progress in graph form.
243
Here is the breakdown by USCIS Receipt Date.

USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March -- Total
Pre FY2012 PD ------------- 11 -------- 11 -------- 8 -------- 6 --------- 4 -------- 3 ----- 43
October VB --------------- 124 -------- 16 -------- 2 -------- 5 --------- 3 -------- 2 ---- 152
November VB -------------------------- 446 ------- 55 -------- 7 --------- 5 -------- 5 ---- 518
December VB ------------------------------------- 602 ------- 80 -------- 22 -------- 7 ---- 711
January VB ------------------------------------------------- 737 ------- 116 ------- 10 ---- 863
February VB ------------------------------------------------------------ 611 ------- 66 ---- 677
March VB -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 133 ---- 133

Total -------------------- 135 ------- 473 ------ 667 ------ 835 ------- 761 ------ 226 -- 3,097

[harapatta2012]

TeddyKoochu, I am glad you brought up the main point of this thread. What are predictions of getting GC for folks those PD comes after Aug 2007? According to your estimate, sep 2012 could bring us anywhere between march 2008-dec2008. It would depend on lot of factors as SOFAD, current I485 inventory before aug 2007 etc.
But what are some of the estimates between oct 2012-sep 2013 and then oct 2013-sep2014? Based on average data from last few years on SOFAD, knowing EB1 less numbers, less numbers of 2008 fillings, can we make some estimates for 2012,2013,2014.

Lets say that worst case average spillover is 10-15k/yr and only 3k for EB3 porting/yr.

Is it safe to assume that EB2I could move from aug 2007 to nov 2008 by sep 2013 by 90% chance?

Would that movement be happening something like this: Sep 2012 - PD nov 2007;;;; Oct-march 2013 - PD dec 2007;;;;;;March-June 2013 - PD march 2008;;;;; july-sep 2013 - PD nov 2008??? (+- 3months)

Again in 2013, Sep 2013 - PD nov 2008;;;; Oct-march 2014 - PD dec 2008;;;;;;March-June 2014 - PD march 2009;;;;; july-sep 2014 - PD nov 2009???(+- 6months)

This is just very anxious guesswork based on some experience of looking at PD movement in last 5 years.
I know this is far fetched guesswork, but still we cannot deny trend seen in last several years, that is, no movement in beginning of fiscal year, but then movement in 4th quarter of fiscal year.

Also, I used the 'new calculator' launched by Q, saw that my pd of aug 2008 would get currrent in May 2014, that made me worried because I read at other forums that it should be atleast 1 yr earlier than that.

What would some of the gurus say about this.
(Lets get back to guesswork which was sidetracked in last 4 months)

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

As always, thanks for your thoughts.

I think your estimate for PWMB before 15AUG07 is about right.

In addition, I think we also have to allow for 6 months worth of Porting cases. I still see those being approved on a regular basis and no reason for them to slow.

Could you just clarify your numbers?

If EB2-IC SOFAD is 25k and 20k have already been used, then that is 5k left.

You mention at least 10k to come. Is that an allowance for EB1 probably providing 5k, despite CO's announcement?

Spec here are the details.
Consumption = 20K.
When the year stared Inventory showed 14K while demand data showed 8.5K. 11K is a good centrist number here and all these cases were approved around Oct - Nov 2011. The inventory does not even include CP but let’s discount that for simplicity. From early feb cases have been approved pretty much left and right I think even by liberal standards 9-10K approvals have happened. This pegs the consumption at 20K.

Most centrist predictions at the beginning of the year suggested 25K SOAFD this year assuming it was 30K last year. So SOFAD left is 25K - 20K = 5K. Now if really 5K is what is left to come then it kind of justifies the Murthy update. 15t Aug 2007 is the PWMB qualification and those PWMB's who are left behind simply deserve GC on humanitarian grounds ASAP.

Now what Ron is talking also makes sense assuming the quarterly allocation limits have been honored so we should still have 44% numbers left. Now despite the fact that EB1 will give nothing and Eb2 ROW is picking up, we have EB5. So if the first half gave 20K Sofad it might not be unreasonable to expect 10K coming from the second half largely being EB2 + EB5. CO is normally super cautious in moving dates being a responsible govt official, super generous sometimes!. This is all under the assumption that the haloed lines have not been crossed; honestly no one can be sure.
So I believe the first half of April will be a true litmus test. Even RFE cases are not getting approvals now and EB2 ROW cases are finally picking up. Let’s wait and watch.

[TeddyKoochu]

TeddyKoochu, I am glad you brought up the main point of this thread. What are predictions of getting GC for folks those PD comes after Aug 2007? According to your estimate, sep 2012 could bring us anywhere between march 2008-dec2008. It would depend on lot of factors as SOFAD, current I485 inventory before aug 2007 etc.
But what are some of the estimates between oct 2012-sep 2013 and then oct 2013-sep2014? Based on average data from last few years on SOFAD, knowing EB1 less numbers, less numbers of 2008 fillings, can we make some estimates for 2012,2013,2014.

Lets say that worst case average spillover is 10-15k/yr and only 3k for EB3 porting/yr.

Is it safe to assume that EB2I could move from aug 2007 to nov 2008 by sep 2013 by 90% chance?

Would that movement be happening something like this: Sep 2012 - PD nov 2007;;;; Oct-march 2013 - PD dec 2007;;;;;;March-June 2013 - PD march 2008;;;;; july-sep 2013 - PD nov 2008??? (+- 3months)

Again in 2013, Sep 2013 - PD nov 2008;;;; Oct-march 2014 - PD dec 2008;;;;;;March-June 2014 - PD march 2009;;;;; july-sep 2014 - PD nov 2009???(+- 6months)

This is just very anxious guesswork based on some experience of looking at PD movement in last 5 years.
I know this is far fetched guesswork, but still we cannot deny trend seen in last several years, that is, no movement in beginning of fiscal year, but then movement in 4th quarter of fiscal year.

Also, I used the 'new calculator' launched by Q, saw that my pd of aug 2008 would get currrent in May 2014, that made me worried because I read at other forums that it should be atleast 1 yr earlier than that.

What would some of the gurus say about this.
(Lets get back to guesswork which was sidetracked in last 4 months)

Thanks for your detailed post. Quite honestly we should go about this year by year because every year is different and the subsequent year is kind of base-lined on the previous one, as of now even 2011 SOAFD has not been base-lined, but I do understand your question is perfectly justified. The prediction of Jan Filers getting GC this year is only possible if more than 10K numbers are there which is quite likely if only what Ron is saying is true the first 2 weeks of April will help us understand this most likely . If USCIS crossed the limits on approvals then we will fall far short of this. By Sep 2013 though Iam confident that all 2008 filers would be greened almost for sure though.

[qesehmk]

harapatta - I am still finetuning the SSFT. Right now please use it only to get a feel of what the tool is like. Should finalize the latest analysis by next weekend.

As per your case - i am quite certain that Aug 2008 should get through by Sep 2013. The tool data needs to be adjusted - which will be done in 1 week.

...
Also, I used the 'new calculator' launched by Q, saw that my pd of aug 2008 would get currrent in May 2014, that made me worried because I read at other forums that it should be atleast 1 yr earlier than that.

[Spectator]

Teddy,

Thanks for your reply.

The other more dismal reason can be that if EB1 was expected to contribute the same numbers as FY2011 then 35k SOFAD was possible.

54% of 35k = 19k (about the figure to date).

If EB1 is not expected to contribute now, we only have the potential for 100% of about 25k, so not many total visas are left for the rest of the year. The majority will be used by PWMB currently remaining and Porting cases that become ready to adjudicate.

I will say that I still do expect EB1 to contribute a few thousand. EB5 should contribute as well, but not that many this year.

As you say, it is all speculation and the next couple of months will tell the story.

[harapatta2012]

Thanks for your detailed post. Quite honestly we should go about this year by year because every year is different and the subsequent year is kind of base-lined on the previous one, as of now even 2011 SOAFD has not been base-lined, but I do understand your question is perfectly justified. The prediction of Jan Filers getting GC this year is only possible if more than 10K numbers are there which is quite likely if only what Ron is saying is true the first 2 weeks of April will help us understand this most likely . If USCIS crossed the limits on approvals then we will fall far short of this. By Sep 2013 though Iam confident that all 2008 filers would be greened almost for sure though.

Thanks TeddyKoochu. I see your point of going year by year. This was just some higher level overview of movement since there are now ppl with PD upto May 2010 who are expecting things to happen in 2yrs timeframe. Just to bring more anticipaters onboard discussion.

Thanks its encouraging to see that you said by Sep 2013, PD should be after Aug 2008.

Anyways, If we assume that there are 5k-10k numbers in sep2012, than yes we should see significant date movement (upto mid 2008) in sep visa bulletin. But chances are low.

What I dont understand is the movement after Sep 2012.
Earlier dates were only moved in last quarter of fiscal year. This was because there was known inventory of I485 filled appls. Now with all the recent forward date movement,this is the same situation as in 2008-2010. USCIS has a lot of adjuncted I485 cases and know the normal visa supply in quarter. why wud they give spillover in early fiscal yr by doing guesswork.

[harapatta2012]

Thanks Q for the clarification.

I think the overall calculator is good great work and overtime should get better and better.

It might be helpful to add worst, average optimistic scenarios at some later point. Some ppl, like me, just cannot control the curiosity.

Also I wanted to get some visibility for next 6 months -1.5 yrs based on what we already know from past expernece minus last 4 months experience.



harapatta - I am still finetuning the SSFT. Right now please use it only to get a feel of what the tool is like. Should finalize the latest analysis by next weekend.

As per your case - i am quite certain that Aug 2008 should get through by Sep 2013. The tool data needs to be adjusted - which will be done in 1 week.

[vizcard]

If we had 5k left, wouldn't that be more than PWMB? I can't imagine there being that many even including porting cases.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Thanks for your reply.

The other more dismal reason can be that if EB1 was expected to contribute the same numbers as FY2011 then 35k SOFAD was possible.

54% of 35k = 19k (about the figure to date).

If EB1 is not expected to contribute now, we only have the potential for 100% of about 25k, so not many total visas are left for the rest of the year. The majority will be used by PWMB currently remaining and Porting cases that become ready to adjudicate.

I will say that I still do expect EB1 to contribute a few thousand. EB5 should contribute as well, but not that many this year.

As you say, it is all speculation and the next couple of months will tell the story.

Spec in complete agreement with you.


If we had 5k left, wouldn't that be more than PWMB? I can't imagine there being that many even including porting cases.

Viz, the numbers left will have to be divided kind of between the 6 months that’s why the talk of internal retrogression in April and eventual in May is that drastic. So basically in the first month i.e. April there maybe only 1-2K available which may be enough just to satiate PWMB + Porting. We will definitely move much further by Sep 2012 and that is what will eventually matter.

[TheTexan]

Hello friends,

I apologize in advance for posting this but there is some confusion that I need to clear.

1) Can I change job after I get my EAD inspite of no of days are less than 180 days?

2) Can I take part time / contract work while continuing my current job?

3) Will my wife need an offer letter to apply for SSN?

Any help is highly appreciated.


Thnx

[Spectator]

Answers to the best of my knowledge inline.


Hello friends,


I apologize in advance for posting this but there is some confusion that I need to clear.

1) Can I change job after I get my EAD inspite of no of days are less than 180 days?

Yes, because the I-485 is for future employment. But if the I-140 is withdrawn before 180 days have passed, then it is over.


2) Can I take part time / contract work while continuing my current job?

Yes, assuming your terms of employment allow it, but you must use EAD as Employment Authorization for all jobs and you will lose your H1B status.


3) Will my wife need an offer letter to apply for SSN?

No. She just needs to present her EAD with the SS-5 application form to prove her eligibility for an SSN.

[TheTexan]

Spec, thanks for the prompt response!


Answers to the best of my knowledge inline.

[natvyas]

I'm sure this has been looked into but if not:

if ROW has been the primary contributor for the spill over this year, do we know how much they have consumed and at this rate how much more will they use. This will allow us to predict IF they will contribute more to the spill over.

Regards
Nat

[billikoot]

Spec, and all gurus,

I needed advice from you folks on a situation as I am not able to get a satisfactory response from Fragomen my company's lawyers (and they made it abundantly clear that they work for my company and not me).

My husband has been in B1/B2 and has not moved to US. My PD is May 2009 and have been able to apply my 485 AOS. However, I was advised to change my husband's status to NIV (like H4, or so) before I send in his 485 app. After a whole circus which I don't want to get into, I have finally applied for H4 via the I-539 application by myself - not through my company lawyer. I remember Guru Kanmani's suggestion that I can utilize the I-539 receipt of fees with the applicable receipt number to send in the 485 application for the husband. Is that possible? I have all the documents all packed and ready to be submitted, including medical documents. Do I have to wait for the Approval Notice to be received before I send in the 485 application? I am now panicking 'coz of the rumored retrogression.

Thanks a whole bunch,
Billie

[Spectator]

I'm sure this has been looked into but if not:

if ROW has been the primary contributor for the spill over this year, do we know how much they have consumed and at this rate how much more will they use. This will allow us to predict IF they will contribute more to the spill over.

Regards
NatNat,

I'm not sure we can say that EB2-ROW has been the primary contributor for the spill over this year to date.

It is very difficult to get a handle on EB2-ROW. Trackitt approvals on a like-for-like basis to the end of March were 15% higher than last year, but it is impossible to say whether the Trackitt % has changed.

[suninphx]

Spec, and all gurus,

I needed advice from you folks on a situation as I am not able to get a satisfactory response from Fragomen my company's lawyers (and they made it abundantly clear that they work for my company and not me).

My husband has been in B1/B2 and has not moved to US. My PD is May 2009 and have been able to apply my 485 AOS. However, I was advised to change my husband's status to NIV (like H4, or so) before I send in his 485 app. After a whole circus which I don't want to get into, I have finally applied for H4 via the I-539 application by myself - not through my company lawyer. I remember Guru Kanmani's suggestion that I can utilize the I-539 receipt of fees with the applicable receipt number to send in the 485 application for the husband. Is that possible? I have all the documents all packed and ready to be submitted, including medical documents. Do I have to wait for the Approval Notice to be received before I send in the 485 application? I am now panicking 'coz of the rumored retrogression.

Thanks a whole bunch,
Billie

Is your husband in home country or US right now?

If he is outside US then I am not sure if I-539 works. AFAIK its for change/extension of status inside US?

[billikoot]

Thank you Sun, Kanmani, for your responses.

How else would I get an H4 approval notice for him to take an appointment and get the H4 stamping done? In my mind, the visa stamping appointment requires you to state your Notice Number before getting a stamping - is my understanding wrong? I thought I would apply for the COS from B1 to H4 via the I539 and get the Approval Notice 727 (?) sent to my address, get him back here during the on the H4 visa during the I485 AOS application per the requirement.

[suninphx]

Thank you Sun, Kanmani, for your responses.

How else would I get an H4 approval notice for him to take an appointment and get the H4 stamping done? In my mind, the visa stamping appointment requires you to state your Notice Number before getting a stamping - is my understanding wrong? I thought I would apply for the COS from B1 to H4 via the I539 and get the Approval Notice 727 (?) sent to my address, get him back here during the on the H4 visa during the I485 AOS application per the requirement.

Check this out. This web site is extremely useful and will give you all the information.

http://www.immihelp.com/visas/h1b/h4-visa-documents.html

Moderators: remove the post if links from other sites are not allowed.

[Spectator]

You can find it here (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_factsheet.pdf).

The number of Certifications has only risen about 2k since the last fact sheet dated March 5, 2012. Strangely, the number of cases processed has decreased about 500. I think that is because the March 5 figure should have been 18,170 rather than the 21,420 reported.

The number of filings have increased about 4k in that time.

Audit and Supervised Recruitment % has risen in the Active cases, while the % in Appeals has dropped slightly.

[qesehmk]

No worries at all. As long as it helps immigrant folks and as long as we post content and give credit to the original source, we are just fine.


Check this out. This web site is extremely useful and will give you all the information.

http://www.immihelp.com/visas/h1b/h4-visa-documents.html

Moderators: remove the post if links from other sites are not allowed.

[mesan123]

For H4 stamping,

they will need

H1b holders last 3 months paystubs
H1b copy
letter from employer
Your previous years W2
it is good to have i-129 copy if you have
marriage certificate
as it is first time you may need your wedding pics
and apart from this filled DS-160 form for the applicant and fees and photo


Thank you Sun, Kanmani, for your responses.

How else would I get an H4 approval notice for him to take an appointment and get the H4 stamping done? In my mind, the visa stamping appointment requires you to state your Notice Number before getting a stamping - is my understanding wrong? I thought I would apply for the COS from B1 to H4 via the I539 and get the Approval Notice 727 (?) sent to my address, get him back here during the on the H4 visa during the I485 AOS application per the requirement.

[vizcard]

billikoot -
I don't think someone can go on H4 without the primary being on H1. So I'm assuming you are on H1 right now. In that case, use the above documentation and get the visa stamp done asap. As soon as the H4 stamp is done and your husband enters the US, apply for AOS. Deadline is Apr 30 as you know.

The other option even if you don't get the AOS is if he can find a job and change to H1B status.

[sp2008]

billikoot -
I don't think someone can go on H4 without the primary being on H1. So I'm assuming you are on H1 right now. In that case, use the above documentation and get the visa stamp done asap. As soon as the H4 stamp is done and your husband enters the US, apply for AOS. Deadline is Apr 30 as you know.

The other option even if you don't get the AOS is if he can find a job and change to H1B status.

Gurus,
I don't want to give mis-information here. but can't he enter USA on B1/B2 and apply for AOS?
Is it mandatory to be on H4 to be associated with primary applicant for AOS?

SP

[qesehmk]

We really need some research and/or lawyer opinion here.

My strong gut feel is that - it is NOT possible since B1/B2 is NOT dual intent visa.


Gurus,
I don't want to give mis-information here. but can't he enter USA on B1/B2 and apply for AOS?
Is it mandatory to be on H4 to be associated with primary applicant for AOS?

SP

[vishnu]

yes - 100% cannot do AoS on B1/B2 as those are not dual intent visas...

[Spectator]

He can't gain admission on a B1/2 with the INTENTION of applying for AOS. In this case, there would be that intent if he followed the suggestion above.

If he were to be admitted now in B1/2 status and applied for AOS before April 30 it would be a huge red flag.

[billikoot]

Thank you all so very much !!!!!

Why the lawyer cannot tell me this much as clearly as you all have is beyond my understanding. I am going ahead with the DS-160 just now thanks to all your suggestions. Praying that we can be done in 29 days or less.

Lots and lots of love and admiration,
Billie

[suninphx]

Thank you all so very much !!!!!

Why the lawyer cannot tell me this much as clearly as you all have is beyond my understanding. I am going ahead with the DS-160 just now thanks to all your suggestions. Praying that we can be done in 29 days or less.

Lots and lots of love and admiration,
Billie

Taking VFS receipt (from HDFC bank) and booking appointment would be top most priorities.
Getting a (non high flying) lawyer would be a good idea too.

My two cents.

Good luck!

[vizcard]

Most recent trackitt approvals:
PD 8/21/2007 got approved on 3/28 (TSC)
PD 6/22/2008 got approved on 3/38 (NSC)
So perhaps the Aug 15 internal COD may not be entirely true.

There are a few others post 3/22 approvals but they are with PDs before 8/15/2007.

[Spectator]

Am I the only one who thinks the productivity rate of DOL in Certifying case from the fact sheets seems incredibly low?

Taking the increase between the fact sheets and the number of days between them gives the following figures.

Dec - Jan = 66 cases per day
Jan - Feb = 68 cases per day
Feb - Mar = 99 cases per day

I know we shouldn't take the figures at face value, but really?

[abcx13]

Just a curious question (does not affect me): Can you send AOS while being on F1?

I know someone who did an AoS from a F1 to a H1.

[qesehmk]

My wife filed 485 on F1. However she also held a valid 797 at that time. So not sure if F1 by itself would've been ok. I think the answer is yes - just a guess.
Just a curious question (does not affect me): Can you send AOS while being on F1?


Am I the only one who thinks the productivity rate of DOL in Certifying case from the fact sheets seems incredibly low?

Taking the increase between the fact sheets and the number of days between them gives the following figures.

Dec - Jan = 66 cases per day
Jan - Feb = 68 cases per day
Feb - Mar = 99 cases per day

I know we shouldn't take the figures at face value, but really?

Spec - if you go back to the days before PERM the rates were always low. IMHO these rates are adjusted ot the economic conditions. So labor approvals are NEVER EVER steady. They always reflect then economic conditions.

[veni001]

This is what I-485 instructions say...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10. Who is not eligible to Adjust Status?

Unless you are applying for creation of record based on continuous residence since before January 1, 1972, Or adjustment of status under a category in which special rules apply (such as 245(i) adjustment, asylum adjustment, Cuban adjustment, special immigrant juvenile adjustment, or special immigrant military personnel adjustment), you are not eligible for adjustment of status if any of the following apply to you:

A. You entered the United States in transit without a visa;

B. You entered the United States as a non-immigrant crewman;

C. You were not admitted or paroled following inspection by an immigration officer;

D. Your authorized stay expired before you filed this application;

E. You were employed in the United States without USCIS authorization prior to filing this application;

F. You failed to maintain your non-immigrant status, unless your failure to maintain status was through no fault of your own or for technical reasons; unless you are applying because you are:

1. An immediate relative of a U.S. citizen (parent, spouse, widow, widower, or unmarried child under 21 years old);

2. A K-1 fiancé (e) or a K-2 fiancé (e) dependent who married the U.S. petitioner within 90 days of admission; or

3. An H or L non-immigrant or special immigrant (foreign medical graduates, international organization employees, or their derivative family members);

G. You were admitted as a K-1 fiancé (e), but did not marry the U.S. citizen, who filed the petition for you, or you were admitted as the K-2 child of a fiancé (e) and your parent did not marry the U.S. citizen who filed the petition:

H. You are or were a J-1 or J-2 exchange visitor and are subject to the 2-year foreign residence requirement and you have not complied with or been granted a waiver of the requirement;

I. You have A, E, or G non-immigrant status or have an occupation that would allow you to have this status, unless you complete Form I-508 (Form I-508F for French nationals) to waive diplomatic rights, privileges, and immunities and, if you are an A or G non-immigrant, unless you submit a completed Form I-566;

J. You were admitted to Guam as a visitor under the Guam visa waiver program;

K. You were admitted to the United States as a visitor under the Visa Waiver Program (http://travel.state.gov/visa/temp/without/without_1990.html), unless you are applying because you are an immediate relative of a U.S. citizen (parent, spouse, widow, widower, or unmarried child under 21 years of age); or

L. You are already a conditional permanent resident.

[billikoot]

Thank you Veni - don't see B1/B2 in this list (I read it twice), unless its #K. But he is not on visitor waiver program, whatever that is. We are going ahead with the H4 stamping any case.

Thanks very much again!

[druvraj]

Thank you Veni - don't see B1/B2 in this list (I read it twice), unless its #K. But he is not on visitor waiver program, whatever that is. We are going ahead with the H4 stamping any case.

Thanks very much again!

Billikoot do not worry my wife got her H4 stamped without much hassle from Mumbai consulate on March 30th. We already have our AP but lawyer asked us to get it stamped anyways. I forgot to give her my paystubs(Oops) and she even took the old EVL that I used for 485 but apparently nothing was asked. She even took our daughter with her in the consulate and the visa officer played with my daughter. I remember my wife had her passport delivered home the next day. So get appointment quickly and get it done with.

[mesan123]

Hi,

Saw 3 JAN fillers in tarckitt(willbegrn,saranganesh ,vikabraham) got approved on Mar 27 &28th ....looks like still they are giving VISA's to people beyond Aug 15th 2007...

[qesehmk]

That will stop since May if the May bulletin retrogresses to those dates.

Hi,

Saw 3 JAN fillers in tarckitt(willbegrn,saranganesh ,vikabraham) got approved on Mar 27 &28th ....looks like still they are giving VISA's to people beyond Aug 15th 2007...

[mesan123]

Yeap Q...you are right...but remember there was news in murthy and other forums and people were diasppointed that there cases may not be approved....so just postd this message becasue there is still ray of hope for Dec or Jan fillers to get approved...the murthy link is below

http://murthy.com/nflash/nf_032912.html

That will stop since May if the May bulletin retrogresses to those dates.

[vizcard]

But approvals may continue in April looks like. The internal retrogression looks informal and seems like they still have visas to give. What's your thought Q?

Also, retrogression all the way to August 2007 in May means there may not be a lot of visas left to give in FY 2012 at all especially if EB1 fails to provide relief. The next jump will happen in October 2012 and in light of the cleared cases for 2007 and 2008, that jump could be big.

My 2 cents.
Its hard to predict anything that going to happen in April or for the rest of this year. They may have had a drop dead cut off for approvals for March 31 or perhaps the internal COD really is informal or perhaps it'll be only clear RFE cases. We'll know in the next week or so if we will see approvals in April.

Retrogression to August 2007 in itself is not an indicator of whether or not there are visas left (just like the forward movement was not an indicator of demand destruction, etc.). August 2007 seems logical to make sure all the PWMBs get first dibs to the left over GCs. Then during the summer SO season (and into next year), we should see some more SFM with the intermittent "no movement". Like the gurus have said, we should land in Q1 2008 by Sept 2012 and maybe a couple more months in Oct.

After that point it really gets tricky. Will CO use QSP or wait till the summer to give out the SOFAD? If he does use QSP, then we'll see continuous movement otherwise we'll go back to the pattern of movement we saw in post-2007 and pre-fall 2011 period.

[Pr2007]

Hello gurus,

I am new to this forum but I am following every day.

1. My priority date is May 22th 2008 and I got RFE for my I 485 and service center is Nebraska.
If retrogression to August 2007 in may visa bulletin, That mean I have a time nearly 1 month (up to April end) to submit the requested documents. Is there any chase to get my GC in this month?

2. I heard generally they are asking about the Employer information in the recent RFE's. Is it true?

Thanks in advance.

[goforgreen]

Retrogression to August 2007 in itself is not an indicator of whether or not there are visas left (just like the forward movement was not an indicator of demand destruction, etc.).


Well said, I agree and hope that visas are left for approving cases in last quarter or earlier of this year. If we see last 5-6 years whenever retrogression happened it was extreme and then dates started moving again. So keeping hope alive but not building up unrealistic hopes.

[goforgreen]

Hello gurus,

I am new to this forum but I am following every day.

1. My priority date is May 22th 2008 and I got RFE for my I 485 and service center is Nebraska.
If retrogression to August 2007 in may visa bulletin, That mean I have a time nearly 1 month (up to April end) to submit the requested documents. Is there any chase to get my GC in this month?

2. I heard generally they are asking about the Employer information in the recent RFE's. Is it true?

Thanks in advance.

According to latest news from murthy firm dates have retrogessed internally to Aug 15 2007 so folks with PD after that date will get GC only when the dates move again.

[openaccount]

04/03/2012: Visa Bulletin Movement Prediction of State Department During May-July 2012

AILA reports that at the AILA conference in Washington at the end of March, Mr. Oppenheim distributes visa movement prediction table to the attendants. The summary is as follows:
EB Visas: Movement from April 2012 Visa Bulletin
EB-1: Current
EB-2: China/India=Retrogress to 08/15/2007
EB-3: ROW=3-5 wks, China=Upto 6 wks, India=Upto 2 wks, Mexico+Philippines=Same as ROW
FB Visas: ROW Only - Movement from April 2012 Visa Bulletin
FB-1: 4-6 wks
FB-2A: 2.6 mos
FB-2B: 3-6 wks
FB-3: 3-6 wks
F-4: 3-5 wks
Not too promising news.

source:http://www.immigration-law.com/

[vizcard]

Hello gurus,

I am new to this forum but I am following every day.

1. My priority date is May 22th 2008 and I got RFE for my I 485 and service center is Nebraska.
If retrogression to August 2007 in may visa bulletin, That mean I have a time nearly 1 month (up to April end) to submit the requested documents. Is there any chase to get my GC in this month?

2. I heard generally they are asking about the Employer information in the recent RFE's. Is it true?

Thanks in advance.

1. Assuming they are still approving GCs (which is not a good assumption), you still have to respond and the officers need to review and approve. So essentially you have another 10-12 days to respond to give them enough time to adjudicate. Again, this is assuming they actually approve GCs.
2. RFEs have been for EVLs, BCs primarily and in some cases for medicals.

[Spectator]

I am indebted to Jack Brown for bringing my attention to a series of 3 articles by Alan Lee, Attorney at Law.

Article 1 (http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/articles/a2012-03-23.html) (About H.R.3012)
Article 2 (http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/articles/a2012-03-27.html) (About visa usage and talks with Charles Oppenheim)
Article 3 (http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/articles/a2012-03-30.html) (A calculation for number of cases)

I am only talking about the contents of Article 2, which revealed some hard numbers for both FY2011 ans FY2012 to about the end of February 2012.

Also, I have thrown this together quite quickly. Please feel free to point out any mistakes or faulty logic.

Before I start, I will say I am having a hard time digesting and believing some of the numbers presented. As ever, I would warn people about taking any information from a second/third party at face value.


The author had two conversations with Mr. Oppenheim on February 23, 2012, and February 24, 2012, along with another on February 23, 2012, with a member of his staff.

Let's start with FY2011.


From information gleaned from State Department reports and the staff member, the Visa Office issued 46,016 EB-2 visa numbers in FY-2009, 53,872 in FY-2010, 66,804 in FY-2011, and 29,804 in FY-2012 as of February 23, 2012.

The figures for FY2009 and FY2010 tally exactly with the numbers published in the Visas Reports.

In FY2011, the initial total allocation for EB2 was 40,040 visas, so a figure of 66,804 means that the fall down from EB1, EB4 and EB5 was 26,764 visas.

The article also says:


Mr. Oppenheim anticipated less falldown from EB-5, said that EB-4 use last year was such that he almost put a cutoff date on it, and that there now appeared to be more EB-1 demand.

From that, I think we can conclude that, as normal, EB4 did not contribute to fall down.

From the EB5 Stakeholders Meeting of January 23, 2012 we know that EB5 used 3,463 visas of 9,940 in FY2011, leaving 6,477 towards fall down.

EB1 must therefore have contributed 26,764 less 6,477 to fall down. That is 20,287 visas of the EB1 allocation of 40,040, meaning that EB1 used 19,753 visas. If this was the case, EB1 will almost certainly exceed 40k this year.

From another source, I have seen a communication from DOS which stated that in early September 2011, EB2 China had been allocated around 8.3k visas. Visas ran out shortly afterwards.

Using the same ratio of EB2-C to EB2-I as in FY2010 would point to EB2 India receiving about 25-26k visas giving SOFAD of around 33-34k.

This leaves the balance for EB2-ROW/M/P as something over 30k and contributing very little to SOFAD. That seems a high number.

It leaves me wondering whether the correct number is actually 56,608, which would give a higher contribution from EB2-ROW/M/P and a lower one from EB1. Maybe that is just because I had calculated about 57.5k EB2 visas used in FY2011. :)



Moving on to FY2012


In the first conversation with Mr. Oppenheim, he was cautiously optimistic that if conditions continued as they have with demand, he could move the EB-2 date to January 2011 by the end of the fiscal year. However, he believed that many of the persons with approved petitions who had not filed I-485 applications had just delayed the filings and he did not know the attrition rate of those who had given up.

He cited increasing demand in the EB-2 category, and that his office had issued 2000 EB-2 numbers to CIS since his last week's meeting with the CIS Ombudsman.

He was unsure whether this was a temporary spike or a long-term trend; confirmed that he expected approximately 55,000 EB-2 numbers to be available for the year; and that he had approximately 25,000 left to distribute.

Mr. Oppenheim anticipated less falldown from EB-5, said that EB-4 use last year was such that he almost put a cutoff date on it, and that there now appeared to be more EB-1 demand.

Also that he was seeing what appeared to be many upgrades from EB-3 to EB-2 as there were EB-2 cases with old priority dates for which the Visa Office was getting requests for numbers.

He was also cautious as it takes CIS four-six months to complete a case and request a visa number. In explaining the low demand of 335 visas requested by CIS in February, Mr. Oppenheim explained that the 335 were only numbers cleaning out the 2007 cases.

In a follow-up conversation on February 24, 2012, Mr. Oppenheim was less optimistic as he had checked the latest numbers, and did not see visa availability moving to January 2011 by September 2012. EB-2 visa demand was coming in much quicker, and EB-1 numbers were on the upswell as well.

EB-2 visa demand for February was now up to 6600 and he was looking at 7000 by the end of the month.

He did not see as much fall-down from EB-1 as previously expected.

Mr. Oppenheim believed that we may have turned the corner, but the caveat was that if there were backlogs CIS did not tell him about and if there was a shift in the process such as CIS throwing many bodies at a backlog, this could be a one-two month surge. On future movement, he said that he might move the date a little - one to two months - or hold it for a month to get time to see if the increased demand was a temporary spike. If there was continued heavy demand, he would have to put on the brakes.

There is loads of information here.

Of 55k originally expected for EB2, 30k visas had been used to February 23, 2012.

Original fall down numbers expected were 15k (55 - 40).

As of February 23, 2012 the visa usage rate at that time for EB2 was 2k per week.

February usage for EB2 was expected to be 7k.


At least judging by Trackitt, visa usage was even higher in March. It doesn't seem unreasonable to say that 15k EB2 visas were used in Feb/Mar.

This would give total EB2 visa usage to the end of March of about 38-39k. Of this, it seems likely that EB2-IC would account for something over 20k. It also points to quite high use by EB2-ROW/M/P.

I don't have time for more, so I'll leave you with the above.

[pdmay2008]

I am indebted to Jack Brown for bringing my attention to a series of 3 articles by Alan Lee, Attorney at Law.

Article 1 (http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/articles/a2012-03-23.html) (About H.R.3012)
Article 2 (http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/articles/a2012-03-27.html) (About visa usage and talks with Charles Oppenheim)
Article 3 (http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/articles/a2012-03-30.html) (A calculation for number of cases)

I am only talking about the contents of Article 2, which revealed some hard numbers for both FY2011 ans FY2012 to about the end of February 2012.

Also, I have thrown this together quite quickly. Please feel free to point out any mistakes or faulty logic.

Before I start, I will say I am having a hard time digesting and believing some of the numbers presented. As ever, I would warn people about taking any information from a second/third party at face value.



Let's start with FY2011.



The figures for FY2009 and FY2010 tally exactly with the numbers published in the Visas Reports.

In FY2011, the initial total allocation for EB2 was 40,040 visas, so a figure of 66,804 means that the fall down from EB1, EB4 and EB5 was 26,764 visas.

The article also says:



From that, I think we can conclude that, as normal, EB4 did not contribute to fall down.

From the EB5 Stakeholders Meeting of January 23, 2012 we know that EB5 used 3,463 visas of 9,940 in FY2011, leaving 6,477 towards fall down.

EB1 must therefore have contributed 26,764 less 6,477 to fall down. That is 20,287 visas of the EB1 allocation of 40,040, meaning that EB1 used 19,753 visas. If this was the case, EB1 will almost certainly exceed 40k this year.

From another source, I have seen a communication from DOS which stated that in early September 2011, EB2 China had been allocated around 8.3k visas. Visas ran out shortly afterwards.

Using the same ratio of EB2-C to EB2-I as in FY2010 would point to EB2 India receiving about 25-26k visas giving SOFAD of around 33-34k.

This leaves the balance for EB2-ROW/M/P as something over 30k and contributing very little to SOFAD. That seems a high number.

It leaves me wondering whether the correct number is actually 56,608, which would give a higher contribution from EB2-ROW/M/P and a lower one from EB1. Maybe that is just because I had calculated about 57.5k EB2 visas used in FY2011. :)



Moving on to FY2012



There is loads of information here.

Of 55k originally expected for EB2, 30k visas had been used to February 23, 2012.

Original fall down numbers expected were 15k (55 - 40).

As of February 23, 2012 the visa usage rate at that time for EB2 was 2k per week.

February usage for EB2 was expected to be 7k.


At least judging by Trackitt, visa usage was even higher in March. It doesn't seem unreasonable to say that 15k EB2 visas were used in Feb/Mar.

This would give total EB2 visa usage to the end of March of about 38-39k. Of this, it seems likely that EB2-IC would account for something over 20k. It also points to quite high use by EB2-ROW/M/P.

I don't have time for more, so I'll leave you with the above.

Spec, Thanks for this information and for your analysis on this.

As per this discussion there are only 15,000 VISAs left including Spill over for this year.
But as per the law Spill over should be distributed in the last quarter regardless of country limits. If there are only 15000 VISAs left, they will all be consumed by ROW demand and there won't be any spill over from EB2 ROW. We should wait till Oct 2012 to use next year quota. That is the reason behind CO's statement that we need to wait till Oct 2012.

[Spectator]

Spec, Thanks for this information and for your analysis on this.

As per this discussion there are only 15,000 VISAs left including Spill over for this year.
But as per the law Spill over should be distributed in the last quarter regardless of country limits. If there are only 15000 VISAs left, they will all be consumed by ROW demand and there won't be any spill over from EB2 ROW. We should wait till Oct 2012 to use next year quota. That is the reason behind CO's statement that we need to wait till Oct 2012.As I said in the health warning, I would be beware of accepting the figures in the article blindly. I can't emphasise that enough.

I have just presented my analysis based on them being correct.

For instance, if EB1 itself didn't provide any fall down, the 55k for EB2 reduces to perhaps 45k. That wouldn't seem to leave enough visas for even EB2-ROW/M/P for the rest of the year if 38-39k had already been used. The COD for EB2-IC has not been made Unavailable, so clearly visas still exist. Possibly CO is still allowing an unknown figure from EB1.

38k to EB2 would represent 50% of the available visas under the 27% rule in the first half of the year. That seem awfully high, given that EB1 appears to have had healthy approvals as well.

It's not entirely adding up for me.

Even if the figures aren't truly accurate, I think the article gives a good insight into increasing demand. Last year, both EB1 and EB2-ROW appeared to have higher approvals in the second half of the year.

I'm very surprised that the FY2011 Visa Statistics haven't been published yet. The USCIS Dashboard data, which is usually updated around the 21st of the month is also late.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Some of it is really BS. e.g. if indeed they had issued 66.8K EB2 visas in 2011 - then the dates shouldve been way far ahead than where they ended. Funnily, they not only ended where they did but they did so with considerable backlog for EB2IC. So there probably is something lost in translation here between CO and the lawyer.

However a silver lining (in fact more than a silver lining) is that it seems HR3012 is a foregone conclusion as far as DOS is concerned. It seems they are gearing up to work towards supporting HR3012 or are already distributing more under some pretext. Now in retrospect that doesn't surprise me since it is a nightmare for CO to keep track of country % and then release visa. With HR3012 there would be just a category date and that's it!!

As I said in the health warning, I would be beware of accepting the figures in the article blindly. I can't emphasise that enough.

I have just presented my analysis based on them being correct.

For instance, if EB1 itself didn't provide any fall down, the 55k for EB2 reduces to perhaps 45k. That wouldn't seem to leave enough visas for even EB2-ROW/M/P for the rest of the year if 38-39k had already been used. The COD for EB2-IC has not been made Unavailable, so clearly visas still exist. Possibly CO is still allowing an unknown figure from EB1.

38k to EB2 would represent 50% of the available visas under the 27% rule in the first half of the year. That seem awfully high, given that EB1 appears to have had healthy approvals as well.

It's not entirely adding up for me.

Even if the figures aren't truly accurate, I think the article gives a good insight into increasing demand. Last year, both EB1 and EB2-ROW appeared to have higher approvals in the second half of the year.

I'm very surprised that the FY2011 Visa Statistics haven't been published yet. The USCIS Dashboard data, which is usually updated around the 21st of the month is also late.

[Spectator]

Spec

Some of it is really BS. e.g. if indeed they had issued 66.8K EB2 visas in 2011 - then the dates shouldve been way far ahead than where they ended. Funnily, they not only ended where they did but they did so with considerable backlog for EB2IC. So there probably is something lost in translation here between CO and the lawyer.

However a silver lining (in fact more than a silver lining) is that it seems HR3012 is a foregone conclusion as far as DOS is concerned. It seems they are gearing up to work towards supporting HR3012 or are already distributing more under some pretext. Now in retrospect that doesn't surprise me since it is a nightmare for CO to keep track of country % and then release visa. With HR3012 there would be just a category date and that's it!!Q,

I agree that the figure given for FY2011 appears totally wrong and that it may be a transcription error. 57k is quite believable.

I agree that mis-communication is always a possibility.

I don't agree with your other comments.

[abcx13]

Spec

However a silver lining (in fact more than a silver lining) is that it seems HR3012 is a foregone conclusion as far as DOS is concerned. It seems they are gearing up to work towards supporting HR3012 or are already distributing more under some pretext. Now in retrospect that doesn't surprise me since it is a nightmare for CO to keep track of country % and then release visa. With HR3012 there would be just a category date and that's it!!

Pretty sure that's not the case. CO has probably been through 'pending' legislation many times before and I doubt he's going to put his a** on the line by exhibiting behavior one way or another.

While we are speculating, I was thinking that CO might have moved the dates forward a lot and then back to estimate the backlog and tell political types that "oh, it's going to take an ungodly x number of years for these people to get their GCs"...similarly, the dates might have been retrogressed so severely to avoid the impression that maybe wait times aren't so bad after all.

[qesehmk]

You are missing a small detail here. Never in last 5 years we had seen quarterly spillover. And this year CO suddenly applied monthly spillover. One way to explain this is in terms of creating future backlog. Another is anticipation of passage of HR3012.

I don't claim to know with certainty which is what. Just stating possibilities.


Pretty sure that's not the case. CO has probably been through 'pending' legislation many times before and I doubt he's going to put his a** on the line by exhibiting behavior one way or another.

While we are speculating, I was thinking that CO might have moved the dates forward a lot and then back to estimate the backlog and tell political types that "oh, it's going to take an ungodly x number of years for these people to get their GCs"...similarly, the dates might have been retrogressed so severely to avoid the impression that maybe wait times aren't so bad after all.

[druvraj]

Guys this is what I got from my lawyer

As for visa numbers, there are no more left for this fiscal year. Visa numbers will again be available in October 2012, however, at this time there is no indication how quickly the dates will move once October comes around.

Looks like I will be waiting for the Oct bulletin.

[makmohan]

Friends,

Couple of quick questions:

1) If my application needs more evidence (BC, Flu Shot etc) will they work on it : A) During the retrogression or B) once my application becomes current again after the retrogression? It will be good if USCIS could work on these RFEs during this inevitable grand retrogression to avoid more waste of time once my application becomes current.

2) What is the status of a derived applicant working on H1 (with EAD 485 for primary pending); if (s)he loses the job? Can they take a break or have to find something soon (assuming they are still in status in between and with no need to do H1-H4-H1 crap).

Makmohan

[GC-Utopic]

Friends,

Couple of quick questions:

1) If my application needs more evidence (BC, Flu Shot etc) will they work on it : A) During the retrogression or B) once my application becomes current again after the retrogression? It will be good if USCIS could work on these RFEs during this inevitable grand retrogression to avoid more waste of time once my application becomes current.

2) What is the status of a derived applicant working on H1 (with EAD 485 for primary pending); if (s)he loses the job? Can they take a break or have to find something soon (assuming they are still in status in between and with no need to do H1-H4-H1 crap).

Makmohan

1. Yes. they will work on your application (pre-adjudication), but, depending on when you will get current again, they may ask for EVL or G325 update info based on factors like moving to a different state or invoking AC21 etc. Preadjudication atleast reduces the trivial RFE's like BC,Medical but does not guarantee no RFE.

2. Derived applicant has an option to be on H1/H4 or EAD, but once you avail EAD you cannot go back to H-1/H4 without leaving the country. If you are maintaining H-1, dependent can always go out of the country and come back if something happens to I-485, no point in both maintaining H-1 status,, JMHO.

[usernameisnotvalid]

I don't think dependent needs to go out to come back on H4 from EAD. It can be done without leaving USA.


1. Yes. they will work on your application (pre-adjudication), but, depending on when you will get current again, they may ask for EVL or G325 update info based on factors like moving to a different state or invoking AC21 etc. Preadjudication atleast reduces the trivial RFE's like BC,Medical but does not guarantee no RFE.

2. Derived applicant has an option to be on H1/H4 or EAD, but once you avail EAD you cannot go back to H-1/H4 without leaving the country. If you are maintaining H-1, dependent can always go out of the country and come back if something happens to I-485, no point in both maintaining H-1 status,, JMHO.

[makmohan]

2. Derived applicant has an option to be on H1/H4 or EAD, but once you avail EAD you cannot go back to H-1/H4 without leaving the country. If you are maintaining H-1, dependent can always go out of the country and come back if something happens to I-485, no point in both maintaining H-1 status,, JMHO.

Thanks GC-Utopic.

It was more about the status during the period between 2 jobs. If my spouse needs to find something; she can do so without worrying for validity of her status in between 2 jobs (due to EAD). This helps as she can focus on work instead of worrying about this (she has done H1-H4-H1 crap in the past which needs immediate filing of H4 on the last day of job!).

Makmohan

[qesehmk]

UNV I agree w you.

F1 to F2 to H1 to H4 to AOS and back. I think all of that is possible. What probably is frowned upon (but may still be possible) is B1 to any other status adjustment.

But otherwise all adjustments mentioned above are possible.


I don't think dependent needs to go out to come back on H4 from EAD. It can be done without leaving USA.

[GC-Utopic]

Q, I stand corrected,

can you change to H-status after you are admitted as a parolee?


UNV I agree w you.

F1 to F2 to H1 to H4 to AOS and back. I think all of that is possible. What probably is frowned upon (but may still be possible) is B1 to any other status adjustment.

But otherwise all adjustments mentioned above are possible.

[Spectator]

More from Ron Gotcher. http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16843&p=70651#post70651 entitled "Now it's official"



AILA just reported:


DOS Confirms China-Mainland Born and India EB-2 Cut-offs

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12040447 (posted Apr. 4, 2012)"

Charlie Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control at the State Department, has confirmed that, effective March 23, 2012, no further EB-2 visas will be authorized for China-mainland born and India applicants with priority dates of August 15, 2007, or later. Visa applicants processing in April at consulates abroad will still receive visas, as those numbers were allocated before the cut-off date was established. Mr. Oppenheim understands that USCIS will continue to receive and process applications for adjustment of status for aliens with priority dates prior to the date established in the April 2012 Visa Bulletin, and those cases with priority dates of August 15, 2007, or later, will be forwarded to and held by Visa Control at DOS in a "pending" file until new visas are available beginning with FY2013 on October 1, 2012. Mr. Oppenheim advises that an item in the May Visa Bulletin will address the EB-2 movement.

My interpretation of this is that the USCIS stopped issuing visas for China/India EB2 cases with priority dates on or after August 15, 2007 as of March 23rd. They will continue to pre-adjudicate these cases, however, and when priority dates again become available they will obtain visa numbers for them, issue final approvals, and close them. The reference to the pending file at the Visa Office is not new. This has been in use for years. When the USCIS pre-adjudicates an AOS case, they are supposed to notify the Visa Office. VO will then put the file into their database and factor it in as pending demand. When cutoff dates advance, VO then sends the USCIS an email for each case that becomes "current" so that the USCIS can pull the file, approve it, and close it.

[suninphx]

Q, I stand corrected,

can you change to H-status after you are admitted as a parolee?

Yes - if you apply for H1 extension or amendment.

[veni001]

Guys this is what I got from my lawyer

As for visa numbers, there are no more left for this fiscal year. Visa numbers will again be available in October 2012, however, at this time there is no indication how quickly the dates will move once October comes around.

Looks like I will be waiting for the Oct bulletin.

druvraj,

Thant could only be true for EB2IC but not for the rest of the crowed.

[abcx13]

More from Ron Gotcher. http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16843&p=70651#post70651 entitled "Now it's official"

Here's what I posted on Ron's forum. Is my interpretation right?


...Earlier you seemed to be saying that no more visa numbers until the end of next quarter (July) but now it seems no more numbers until the end of the FY, i.e. no more spillover this year at all. Does this mean CO 'over-allocated' visas to EB2-IC in quarterly spillover in the first two quarters and now he probably won't even have enough for EB2 ROW/EB1? If so, seems pretty bad for EB2 IC.

[sreddy]

Thanks Spec. Does that mean they will process cases, keep in pending? I mean if any RFEs or denials will be visible as the case is processed kind of now thro October or so. If so, I think for those filed Jan or before, it is kind of safe to invoke AC21 just in case if they want to change job after their 6moth wait time to be able to use AC21. Is that reasonable thinking or crazy thinking :) ?


More from Ron Gotcher. http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16843&p=70651#post70651 entitled "Now it's official"

[qesehmk]

No worries GCUT. I think you can switch status.

Parolee is not a status. Parole is a means to enter US and continue your previous status. So once you resume that status by using AP i.e. Parole, I am quite confident that you can change from whatever that status is to any other status as long as you have valid documentation (whether H1 or F1 or H4 or F2).


Q, I stand corrected,

can you change to H-status after you are admitted as a parolee?


Guys this is what I got from my lawyer

As for visa numbers, there are no more left for this fiscal year. Visa numbers will again be available in October 2012, however, at this time there is no indication how quickly the dates will move once October comes around.

Looks like I will be waiting for the Oct bulletin.

i think when they say visas are exhausted they are talking about EB2IC having reached country limits. That doesn't mean they will NOT receive any spillover. So mark my words on this. EB2IC dates will move very much before Sep 2012 meaning they are going to receive more visas.

Secondly "as of 23rd March stopped issuing visa" doesn't mean we will NOT see ANY EB2IC approvals between now and April 30. pls refer to a post by kramcha - i believe - where his lawyer talks about visa allocation. I do think there is some truth to that. In other words - there will still be few cases where they have pulled a visa number but the case is not processed fully. However this is a minor point. The main point is that EB2IC will continue to receive SPILLOVER during the remainder of 2012.

[fedupwithgc]

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16843

My PD is Jul 08 and looks like my wait begins.

[tatikonda]

Gurus,

My PD is Sep 2010, When I except to be current.
atleast to apply for EAD. I am working for a MNC and they are plans to layoff people in March 2013 - June 2013. Can I expect to get my EAD Cards by that time ??

Please suggest !! I am in very confused state. I am working for this MNC for last 5 years and now that I am close to getting my GC. things changed ??

Thank u

[qesehmk]

Sport - directionally correct yes. Accurate - nobody can say that. But if you ask me to guess - I would think that your approval % seem a bit higher than what data can support. So the movement will happen in the manner you have laid out. But it will be a bit slower than you have laid out.

The two things that can contradict me are - DEMAND DESTRUCTION and 2011 Approvals. I do not believe in demand destruction i.e. people abandoning their GC voluntarily or involuntarily in a significnt manner. Secondly I do not think that in 2011 the total approvals were more than 57K.


Thanks for this Q.

Is this an accurate picture?

1. Most of the Nov 11 filers are approved (> 75%)
2. A substantial percentage of Dec 11 filers are approved (> 50%, < 75%)
3. A good number of Jan 12 filers are approved (> 25%, < 50%)
4. No Feb and Mar 12 filers are approved.

If so, dates may move to cover all remaining people in 1 and 2 when spillover is available for this fiscal year (right on the mark at around March 2008). In October 2012, dates may make a big jump depending upon how the spillover is allocated and the trends at that particular time. October - March 2013 period should cover everyone from 3, and a few people from 4. The USCIS may have to renew a few EAD/APs for free after all. It may also give 2 year combo cards to March 2012 filers to minimize the impact from that set.

That is how I see EB2-IC dates progressing in a realistic manner given everything.


Gurus,

My PD is Sep 2010, When I except to be current.
atleast to apply for EAD. I am working for a MNC and they are plans to layoff people in March 2013 - June 2013. Can I expect to get my EAD Cards by that time ??

Please suggest !! I am in very confused state. I am working for this MNC for last 5 years and now that I am close to getting my GC. things changed ??

Thank u

Generally speaking 4-5 years since your PD is when EB2IC's get GCs. So when you file is a matter of visa bulletin dates. However time to GC is fairly constant across EB2ICs.

[druvraj]

No worries GCUT. I think you can switch status.

Parolee is not a status. Parole is a means to enter US and continue your previous status. So once you resume that status by using AP i.e. Parole, I am quite confident that you can change from whatever that status is to any other status as long as you have valid documentation (whether H1 or F1 or H4 or F2).





i think when they say visas are exhausted they are talking about EB2IC having reached country limits. That doesn't mean they will NOT receive any spillover. So mark my words on this. EB2IC dates will move very much before Sep 2012 meaning they are going to receive more visas.

Secondly "as of 23rd March stopped issuing visa" doesn't mean we will NOT see ANY EB2IC approvals between now and April 30. pls refer to a post by kramcha - i believe - where his lawyer talks about visa allocation. I do think there is some truth to that. In other words - there will still be few cases where they have pulled a visa number but the case is not processed fully. However this is a minor point. The main point is that EB2IC will continue to receive SPILLOVER during the remainder of 2012.


Q and Veni,

Yes I guess my lawyer was talking about my category EB2I. I hope your are spot on Q(With your assessment). If EB2IC gets any spillover visas during this visa year that would be terrific. Hope you are right fingers crossed!!!

[usernameisnotvalid]

Actually this is good!!

At least, we have something to do in next 6 -7 months! :)

[vizcard]

Q - caveat to that is if HR3012 .. if that goes through, the time to get GC will decrease significantly.

[abcx13]

BTW, this is a question out of curiosity.

Can anyone comment on why people are anxious about getting their GC verses being *very happy* about receiving EAD/AP, especially in light of the fact that they won't be shelling out a couple of thousand dollars to keep renewing them circa EB3-I pre-July 2007?

Is there any other advantage the green card offers for employment purposes over the standalone EAD and pending 485? I have heard renewing drivers license in some states is a pain. Are there any other factors that make the actual green card so desirable?

The reason I am asking this is because my spouse will soon be finding work, and if there are any limitations to simply having an EAD, I would like to know them before hand. This post may be moved to a different thread if this place was not appropriate.

The only thing I can think of is you can naturalize sooner (GC+5 yrs). Since that's what I ultimately care about, I wish I could have my GC tomorrow! I'm just out of college and my company is filing for EB2-I (going through PERM right now) and they'd be really happy too if EB2-I were current and I could get it ASAP.

[abcx13]

i think when they say visas are exhausted they are talking about EB2IC having reached country limits. That doesn't mean they will NOT receive any spillover. So mark my words on this. EB2IC dates will move very much before Sep 2012 meaning they are going to receive more visas.

Secondly "as of 23rd March stopped issuing visa" doesn't mean we will NOT see ANY EB2IC approvals between now and April 30. pls refer to a post by kramcha - i believe - where his lawyer talks about visa allocation. I do think there is some truth to that. In other words - there will still be few cases where they have pulled a visa number but the case is not processed fully. However this is a minor point. The main point is that EB2IC will continue to receive SPILLOVER during the remainder of 2012.

That's not what Ron seems to think (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16843). Here's the relevant quote:


Based on Mr. Oppenheim's remarks, we may presume that there are now enough pending China/India EB2 cases in the queue at the USCIS with priority dates earlier than August 15, 2007 to exhaust the remaining supply of available visas. This, however, is not carved in stone. This is an estimate and it depends on the USCIS doing their job as they are supposed to do it. If they fail to do their job timely, it will become necessary to advance cutoff dates once again so that the overseas consular posts can step up and process enough cases to exhaust the quota. If this happens, however, it is unlikely that AOS applicants with priority dates on or after August 15, 2007 will see approvals this fiscal year. So according to him any forward movement will be driven by slow processing on USCIS' part and it probably won't be sustainable forward movement.

All the more reason for people to get back on the HR3012 bandwagon. I hope there's still behind the scenes lobbying happening to bring it to a vote after the Recess. There's been no news for a while. But that's our only hope for a speedy GC.

[veni001]

Q and Veni,

Yes I guess my lawyer was talking about my category EB2I. I hope your are spot on Q(With your assessment). If EB2IC gets any spillover visas during this visa year that would be terrific. Hope you are right fingers crossed!!!

druvraj,

If you look at Spec's post below USCIS may have some VISA numbers (~couple of hundred?) available to issue to EB2IC with PD before 15AUG2007.




AILA just reported:


DOS Confirms China-Mainland Born and India EB-2 Cut-offs

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12040447 (posted Apr. 4, 2012)"

Charlie Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control at the State Department, has confirmed that, effective March 23, 2012, no further EB-2 visas will be authorized for China-mainland born and India applicants with priority dates of August 15, 2007, or later. Visa applicants processing in April at consulates abroad will still receive visas, as those numbers were allocated before the cut-off date was established. Mr. Oppenheim understands that USCIS will continue to receive and process applications for adjustment of status for aliens with priority dates prior to the date established in the April 2012 Visa Bulletin, and those cases with priority dates of August 15, 2007, or later, will be forwarded to and held by Visa Control at DOS in a "pending" file until new visas are available beginning with FY2013 on October 1, 2012. Mr. Oppenheim advises that an item in the May Visa Bulletin will address the EB-2 movement.

My interpretation of this is that the USCIS stopped issuing visas for China/India EB2 cases with priority dates on or after August 15, 2007 as of March 23rd. They will continue to pre-adjudicate these cases, however, and when priority dates again become available they will obtain visa numbers for them, issue final approvals, and close them. The reference to the pending file at the Visa Office is not new. This has been in use for years. When the USCIS pre-adjudicates an AOS case, they are supposed to notify the Visa Office. VO will then put the file into their database and factor it in as pending demand. When cutoff dates advance, VO then sends the USCIS an email for each case that becomes "current" so that the USCIS can pull the file, approve it, and close it.

[Maranatha]

Hello,

Here is an interesting news that made me wonder if they would put those 25,000 fraudulent EB visas back into the pool!

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/usao_sony_press_earl_david.pdf

[qesehmk]

The words "supply of visa" refer to quota rather than "spillover". So what Ron says is n't contradictory to what I said on this topic.


That's not what Ron seems to think (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16843). Here's the relevant quote:

So according to him any forward movement will be driven by slow processing on USCIS' part and it probably won't be sustainable forward movement.

All the more reason for people to get back on the HR3012 bandwagon. I hope there's still behind the scenes lobbying happening to bring it to a vote after the Recess. There's been no news for a while. But that's our only hope for a speedy GC.

[abcx13]

The words "supply of visa" refer to quota rather than "spillover". So what Ron says is n't contradictory to what I said on this topic.

But that can't be true, right, because the 'quota' of ~2800 * 2 for India and China has surely already been exhausted this year.

[qesehmk]

They are talking about Labor certification which can be used either for H1B or GC. In either case - more than likely those visas can't be put back into the pool.
Hello,

Here is an interesting news that made me wonder if they would put those 25,000 fraudulent EB visas back into the pool!

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/usao_sony_press_earl_david.pdf

[qesehmk]

Precisely and hence one can assume that the date they are talking about has "practically" zero documentarily qualified 485 cases left.
But that can't be true, right, because the 'quota' of ~2800 * 2 for India and China has surely already been exhausted this year.

[Spectator]

Thanks for this Q.

Is this an accurate picture?

1. Most of the Nov 11 filers are approved (> 75%)
2. A substantial percentage of Dec 11 filers are approved (> 50%, < 75%)
3. A good number of Jan 12 filers are approved (> 25%, < 50%)
4. No Feb and Mar 12 filers are approved.

If so, dates may move to cover all remaining people in 1 and 2 when spillover is available for this fiscal year (right on the mark at around March 2008). In October 2012, dates may make a big jump depending upon how the spillover is allocated and the trends at that particular time. October - March 2013 period should cover everyone from 3, and a few people from 4. The USCIS may have to renew a few EAD/APs for free after all. It may also give 2 year combo cards to March 2012 filers to minimize the impact from that set.

That is how I see EB2-IC dates progressing in a realistic manner given everything.sportsfan,

I have been keeping track of this based on Trackitt applications with a Receipt Date of October 2011 or later here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012).

The figures are :

Oct VB - 62% approved
Nov VB - 57% approved
Dec VB - 47% approved
Jan VB - 11% approved

The numbers might be a bit higher if everybody has not been updating their case with the approval, but it appears most have. For later VBs, the number of applications is till increasing, so the % is actually a bit high.

Had no cases in 2008 been approved, I calculated that the dates would have retrogressed to late December 2007 rather than August 15, 2007.

[Gclongwait]

Gurus,

My PD is Sep 2010, When I except to be current.
atleast to apply for EAD. I am working for a MNC and they are plans to layoff people in March 2013 - June 2013. Can I expect to get my EAD Cards by that time ??

Please suggest !! I am in very confused state. I am working for this MNC for last 5 years and now that I am close to getting my GC. things changed ??

Thank u

unfortunately it looks like your situation may end up like someone who file between July 07 - dec 07. These people missed filing in July 07 and had to wait 4 years to file I485. Anyone who missed the current run (Pd after May10) will probably have to wait. Also its not just filing, to be safe from layoff etc you need to have your AoS pending for 6 months which means you need to file this year which seems highly unlikely. You have more than 1 year if your job is in jeopardy search for another one and port your priority date.

[openaccount]

Spec/Q-

When spill over is distributed to India/China is it distributed evenly?
Say next year if there is SO of about 14k(doesn't include regular 5.6K) to EB2IC with cut off date-Oct2008 and China has only about say 2K(or 0) demand till that cut off date then literally all spill over will be consumed by Eb2I or to meet "even distribution policy" does CO move dates more?

[qesehmk]

spillover is ALWAyS distributed in order of PD regardless country of chargeability. So dates for India China will move in tandem from spillover perspective.
Spec/Q-

When spill over is distributed to India/China is it distributed evenly?
Say next year if there is SO of about 14k(doesn't include regular 5.6K) to EB2IC with cut off date-Oct2008 and China has only about say 2K(or 0) demand till that cut off date then literally all spill over will be consumed by Eb2I or to meet "even distribution policy" does CO move dates more?

[goforgreen]

Had no cases in 2008 been approved, I calculated that the dates would have retrogressed to late December 2007 rather than August 15, 2007.

Spec that is painful to know considering my PD is in Dec and not approved yet. I guess it will move again and make us happy.

[Spectator]

An interesting post on Trackitt. http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/978668227/official-confirmation-from-nsc-for-eb2-till-o/page/last_page

At least the message is consistent.


I had sent an inquiry to Nebraska few days back and I got the email reply today. Here it is. This email tells that they are not issuing EB2 for anyone till Oct 2012, they didn't mention anything about 15th Aug 2007 too.


NSC, NCSC Followup NCSCFollowup.NSC@uscis.dhs.gov

2:07 PM (52 minutes ago)

to me

Greetings,


The current visa bulletin indicates the applicant is eligible to adjust based on the published priority dates. However, there are currently no visas available for their category. The demand for EB2 numbers has increased dramatically during recent months. This was at a much faster rate than had been expected based on the rapid forward movement of the cut-off date. Therefore, it was necessary for the regress of the China/India EB2 category in an attempt to hold number use within the annual limit. This will allow us to maintain availability for those countries which have not yet reached their per-country limit.


Unless there is a drastic change in the current rate of number use, EB2 numbers will not be available until October 1st, under the FY-2013 annual limit. The Department of State is indicating that it will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until sometime in late summer.


Sincere Regards,

USCIS Nebraska Service Center

EX0547

NSC is so far ahead of TSC for having approved earlier PD that it wouldn't be a surprise if we see very few NSC approvals.

The person has a PD of 30 Oct 2007.

[Jonty Rhodes]

An interesting post on Trackitt. http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/978668227/official-confirmation-from-nsc-for-eb2-till-o/page/last_page

At least the message is consistent.



NSC is so far ahead of TSC for having approved earlier PD that it wouldn't be a surprise if we see very few NSC approvals.

The person has a PD of 30 Oct 2007.

Thanks Spec for posting this. This clarifies things.

[abcx13]

An interesting post on Trackitt. http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/978668227/official-confirmation-from-nsc-for-eb2-till-o/page/last_page

At least the message is consistent.



NSC is so far ahead of TSC for having approved earlier PD that it wouldn't be a surprise if we see very few NSC approvals.

The person has a PD of 30 Oct 2007.

So I guess Q is right that there will might be some spillover towards the end of the FY. But things don't seem too good for EB2-IC otherwise.

[luckycub]

Hi Gurus,
I have a quick question - I am currently using my H1B while we have EAD/AP approved but I-485 pending, does my wife need to apply for H-4 if she does not have a job yet? Thank you.

[Spectator]

These are not directly from USCIS or DOS, but they cite DOS as the source of the figures.

I found them through this (http://blog.lucidtext.com/category/eb-5-statistics/) EB5 blog.

They can be found here (http://iiusablog.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/IIUSA-EB-5-Visa-Statistics-and-Charts-March2012.pdf).

There does not seem to have been much usage in Q2.

On January 23, 2012 a USCIS document (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Notes%20from%20Previous%20Engagements/Notes%20from%20Previous%20Engagements%20by%20Topic/January%20EB-5%20presentation%20FINAL.pdf) estimated 2,364 had been used as of January 17, 2012.

This document has a figure of 2,405 at the end of February.

Perhaps that explains where some of the QSP was coming from.

Again, it confirms that EB5 usage in FY2011 was 3,463 vs. 1,885 in FY2010.

[vizcard]

Hi Gurus,
I have a quick question - I am currently using my H1B while we have EAD/AP approved but I-485 pending, does my wife need to apply for H-4 if she does not have a job yet? Thank you.

She does not need to.

[Spectator]

Hi Gurus,
I have a quick question - I am currently using my H1B while we have EAD/AP approved but I-485 pending, does my wife need to apply for H-4 if she does not have a job yet? Thank you.It isn't strictly necessary.

If her I-94 expires, as long as she has a pending I-485, she will become an AOS Pending Applicant.

This is a period of Authorized Stay.

Some people think maintaining H status is a big deal, while others do not.

If she is planning to use the EAD to work, then it probably doesn't make much sense to extend the H4, because she will lose H4 status as soon as she starts working.

If she is not planning to work, then you might consider it.

Ultimately, it is a personal call.

Hope that helps.

[goforgreen]

The only thing I can think of is you can naturalize sooner (GC+5 yrs). Since that's what I ultimately care about, I wish I could have my GC tomorrow! I'm just out of college and my company is filing for EB2-I (going through PERM right now) and they'd be really happy too if EB2-I were current and I could get it ASAP.

sportsfan33

Well there are many reasons to want GC instead of being satisfied with EAD. With GC

There is no more sword hanging of 485 approval, RFEs, etc
You can pay in state tuition for college
You can travel without issues with any port of entry, any layover city without transit visa
You can naturalize sooner as abx mentioned
No more following Trackitt
Can buy house (ofcourse you can do that on H1 as well but seeing the horror stories of people having to go back at a short notice its just safer, you can call me a worrying desi :-) )
It gives a closure to your long wait of GC

[tatikonda]

Generally speaking 4-5 years since your PD is when EB2IC's get GCs. So when you file is a matter of visa bulletin dates. However time to GC is fairly constant across EB2ICs...

Q,

Are you saying, it takes another 4-5 years to get GC with priority date of Sep 2010 ??
I am unable to comprehend it !! Why 4-5 Years .. we are already seeing some approvals from Mid 2009. I was hoping to get it in FY2013.

Same is for applying EAD, When do you guesstimate for dates will move until Sep 2010, just to apply for EAD..

Please suggest !!

[Pundit Arjun]

..

Q,

Are you saying, it takes another 4-5 years to get GC with priority date of Sep 2010 ??
I am unable to comprehend it !! Why 4-5 Years .. we are already seeing some approvals from Mid 2009. I was hoping to get it in FY2013.

Same is for applying EAD, When do you guesstimate for dates will move until Sep 2010, just to apply for EAD..

Please suggest !!

tatikonda,

As a rule of thumb, based on the past few year trends, it is usually said that a person in EB2IC category can expect to get the physical GC card in 4-5 years. Q, meant the same and not an additional of 4-5 years from today. These are again guesstimates and one may receive GC before 4-5 years too.

[goforgreen]

..

Q,

Are you saying, it takes another 4-5 years to get GC with priority date of Sep 2010 ??
I am unable to comprehend it !! Why 4-5 Years .. we are already seeing some approvals from Mid 2009. I was hoping to get it in FY2013.



Looking at your post I remember a conversation I had with a good friend of mine in 2005, when I asked him when I'll get GC if I file in EB2 (he had filed sometime in 2002), he said kam se kam 4 saal lagalo (minimum four years). I was shocked, dissapointed, angry and I thought my friend does not like me getting GC sooner. At that time EB2IC was current for some time but since there was no PERM, Labour used to take 2-3 years to get approval and once PERM started severe retrogession started and then July 2007 happened and there was a wait of 4 years for post July 2007 folks to even apply for 485 and get EAD. Now unless HR 3012 passes or unless there is any other legislative relief 4-5 years is the timeframe for EB2IC from priority date.

That is the sad story of EB2 I&C, EB3 is even worse.

[goforgreen]

This is not correct. I am considered a state resident already. In fact, I stopped filing the "NR" version of 1040 some years ago.


AFAIK state resident is for paying tax only, to avail in state tuition you have to be citizen/PR and stay in the state for atleast an year prior to admission, atleast this was the case for the states I lived in, I might be wrong.

Generally when you have to pay tax you are considered a resident and cannot escape any taxes since you are an immigrant but when considering major benefits of residency/citizenship like Instate Tuition, Medicare you are considered a legal alien and have to have GC/Citizenship to avail these benefits. I'm not considering smaller benefits like public libraries, etc. Anyway they have every right to make the rules as they they think will work to their advantage.

[openaccount]

Found this on http://www.immigration-law.com/
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/N-400%20and%20Application%20for%20Benefits/2012/Feb/applications-for-benefits-2012-feb.pdf

Major receipt volumes in February 2012 include: 117,114 I-765 employment authorizations; 92,371 I-821 temporary protected status; 78,906 I-90 green card renewals/replacements; 58,129 I-130 immediate/all other petitions; 55,926 I-485 applications to adjust status; 40,607 I-131 travel document/advance parole; 20,992 I-129 forms filed.

[vizcard]

..

Q,

Are you saying, it takes another 4-5 years to get GC with priority date of Sep 2010 ??
I am unable to comprehend it !! Why 4-5 Years .. we are already seeing some approvals from Mid 2009. I was hoping to get it in FY2013.

Same is for applying EAD, When do you guesstimate for dates will move until Sep 2010, just to apply for EAD..

Please suggest !!

Not sure where you got your info from about 2009 PDs getting approved. No Feb filers i.e. 2009 PDs have been approved. The last receipt date that was approved (per Trackitt) was somewhere in Jan Wk 3. Also, less than 50% of all applications from Dec+Jan have been greened. You may get EAD in FY2013 but that's a factor of how CO wants to play it. But there's no way you will get greened in FY13 unless HR3012 gets approved. The math just doesn't support it. Most of 2009 will probably not be greened.

[cbordu_111]

Gents,

My first post here, a colleague of mine "October 2008 EB2/India PD " got his I-485 approval today at 1.00 pm. This is 100% confirmed news, I also saw his confirmation status online. Just wanted to let people know here.

Thanks

[bvsamrat]

It takes another 4-5 years to get GC with priority date of Sep 2010 ?? NO?
My take is that it would take 4-5 years from the PD that is maximum 2015 or or by 2014.

Taking into consideration that all the time, quite few % will go under review/RFE etc.

It is quite possible that majority of filed 2009 PDs may get eligible to get GC in FY2013.
Likewise 2010 may stretch to 2013-14, assuming that (post May)2010 PD applications will be in similar numbers as of 2009.





Not sure where you got your info from about 2009 PDs getting approved. No Feb filers i.e. 2009 PDs have been approved. The last receipt date that was approved (per Trackitt) was somewhere in Jan Wk 3. Also, less than 50% of all applications from Dec+Jan have been greened. You may get EAD in FY2013 but that's a factor of how CO wants to play it. But there's no way you will get greened in FY13 unless HR3012 gets approved. The math just doesn't support it. Most of 2009 will probably not be greened.

[kumar19]

Just want to check is it NSC/TSC? Whats the RD?

Gents,

My first post here, a colleague of mine "October 2008 EB2/India PD " got his I-485 approval today at 1.00 pm. This is 100% confirmed news, I also saw his confirmation status online. Just wanted to let people know here.

Thanks

[srimurthy]

Getting EAD for Sep'2010 in 2013 is comforting.
My PD is Sep' 2010. and Tatikonda we are on the other side of the dates that stopped moving, so I am not expecting to get a chance to file till this whole backlog applications are cleared and that would be some time in 2014.
We would be the ones where we file and get the EAD and GC immediately within the 6 months period in 2014 or 15 with little use of EAD for self or for dependents. So brace up and live life.

Not sure where you got your info from about 2009 PDs getting approved. No Feb filers i.e. 2009 PDs have been approved. The last receipt date that was approved (per Trackitt) was somewhere in Jan Wk 3. Also, less than 50% of all applications from Dec+Jan have been greened. You may get EAD in FY2013 but that's a factor of how CO wants to play it. But there's no way you will get greened in FY13 unless HR3012 gets approved. The math just doesn't support it. Most of 2009 will probably not be greened.

[cbordu_111]

Just want to check is it NSC/TSC? Whats the RD?

It's NSC and the RD is 03/01/2012.

[leo4ever]

Thats good news man..
RD is 3/1/2012? Did you mean Mar 1st or Jan 3rd? When did he complete his FP?


It's NSC and the RD is 03/01/2012.

[EB2Jun08]

Hi Guys,

I applied for I-485 during January and received EAD/AP and FP also done, H1B is valid until early Next Year but visa stamp was expired. My attorney told me that if we use AP to enter then we must update HR with EAD/AP details as it is combo card and i need to work only on EAD.I am getting mixed answers on this. Can any of you who used AP to reenter tell me whether they are working on H1 or EAD. thanks in advance.

[redtogreen]

Hi, this is also my first post on this forum too.. and am happy to begin by congratulating this one person whose application has managed to fight all odds and arguments.

[vishnu]

If they are indeed still approving 2008 PDs, despite all the rhetoric we've been hearing from the 'AILA conversations with CO', then surely there are a lot more #s left? Or the numbers they are referring to are only the formal 5800 quota and spill over is still left? I'm not trying to be overly positive or anything, just very confused really.

[cbordu_111]

Thats good news man..
RD is 3/1/2012? Did you mean Mar 1st or Jan 3rd? When did he complete his FP?

Absolutely certain it's Jan 3rd 2012.

[gomesnj]

USCIS My Case Status site

I was trying to check my case status on line on the uscis web site for my I485 application and it turned me down saying
'Your case can not be found at this time in My Case Status. Please check your receipt number and try again. If you need further assistance, please call the National Customer Service Center at 1.800.375.5283. '

When called the customer service center today they said the system is not working fine since two months.....

That explains everything....

[srini001]

Hi,

My PD is 08/16/2010 EB2 India. Any wild guesses on when it will become current..

Thanks!!

[vizcard]

USCIS My Case Status site

I was trying to check my case status on line on the uscis web site for my I485 application and it turned me down saying
'Your case can not be found at this time in My Case Status. Please check your receipt number and try again. If you need further assistance, please call the National Customer Service Center at 1.800.375.5283. '

When called the customer service center today they said the system is not working fine since two months.....

That explains everything....

what is everything?

[soggadu]

guys gals and gurus...

one of my friend is aug 28 2007 PD from TSC with a RD of Nov 14 and still waiting for GC...

what do you guys think about his case/approval time frame?

[redtogreen]

Thanks for the update, did they mention an ETA on fix? Also were they able to trace your applications from a different system when you called?
Will definitely give more respite to know they have your applications safe and it is just the online status that is an issue.


USCIS My Case Status site

I was trying to check my case status on line on the uscis web site for my I485 application and it turned me down saying
'Your case can not be found at this time in My Case Status. Please check your receipt number and try again. If you need further assistance, please call the National Customer Service Center at 1.800.375.5283. '

When called the customer service center today they said the system is not working fine since two months.....

That explains everything....

[vizcard]

guys gals and gurus...

one of my friend is aug 28 2007 PD from TSC with a RD of Nov 14 and still waiting for GC...

what do you guys think about his case/approval time frame?

Summer 2012 for sure (assuming there are no other issues).

[PD2008AUG25]

USCIS My Case Status site

I was trying to check my case status on line on the uscis web site for my I485 application and it turned me down saying
'Your case can not be found at this time in My Case Status. Please check your receipt number and try again. If you need further assistance, please call the National Customer Service Center at 1.800.375.5283. '

When called the customer service center today they said the system is not working fine since two months.....

That explains everything....

Whole bunch of Feb filers at TSC can't track their status. When I had called for mine, I was told system will be fine in two weeks, that was month ago. EAD and AP status just started showing up after they got approved. Still can't track I-485, I hope after FP is done, it should show up as well.

[vizcard]

Whole bunch of Feb filers at TSC can't track their status. When I had called for mine, I was told system will be fine in two weeks, that was month ago. EAD and AP status just started showing up after they got approved. Still can't track I-485, I hope after FP is done, it should show up as well.

To me its a case of ppl at USCIS not entering info in time and only doing it on an as needed basis i.e. when a file is touched and processed.

[gomesnj]

They were able to find my application and verified my receipt number for I485 when I called the customer service. I hope that means USCIS have the application received and is in processing.
I had my H1b Extn applied in Oct 2011 and the online case status always showed up in Initial stage until now. But my case was approved and the I797 was sent to the Attorney 2 weeks back.
Now I wonder how reliable is the USCIS case status update system?
Looks like I need to call USCIS customer service every time to check on the status of my case.

[sweta.shetty]

hello Gurus, Need quick help, My driver's license is expiring and my company's immigration team couldnt track the hard copy of the receipt for H1B extension, they have the number though. How can the driver's license be extended without the actual receipt copy.
Please move it to the appropriate thread.
Thanks, Sweta.

[vizcard]

I cannot track my status at the TSC too, and none of my friends until the time they received their GCs could ever track their status until the point of approval.
thats my point. i think a lot of Feb and March filers are having this issue regardless of service center. Its just volume. Thats my theory anyway. I could see my case online from day 1.


hello Gurus, Need quick help, My driver's license is expiring and my company's immigration team couldnt track the hard copy of the receipt for H1B extension, they have the number though. How can the driver's license be extended without the actual receipt copy.
Please move it to the appropriate thread.
Thanks, Sweta.

Not trying to be facetious but have your asked the DMV in your state? I'm sure it varies from state to state.

Also, I know you can get a copy of your approval notice from the USCIS (reprint) but I don't know about receipt notices. You might want to call USCIS customer service and ask them (or have your lawyers do it).

[qesehmk]

How come you don't have your copy of 797? That's the one you should be using.

If you don't have one ... do you at least have the case number? If so you can go to USCIS and get the onlie case status to prove it was approved.

That's the most I can think of. Sorry.

hello Gurus, Need quick help, My driver's license is expiring and my company's immigration team couldnt track the hard copy of the receipt for H1B extension, they have the number though. How can the driver's license be extended without the actual receipt copy.
Please move it to the appropriate thread.
Thanks, Sweta.

[usernameisnotvalid]

I live in MA. I got it renewed last month without any immigration document at all. Just my DL number; online form and that's it!

May be it varies from state to state.



hello Gurus, Need quick help, My driver's license is expiring and my company's immigration team couldnt track the hard copy of the receipt for H1B extension, they have the number though. How can the driver's license be extended without the actual receipt copy.
Please move it to the appropriate thread.
Thanks, Sweta.

[GCKnowHow]

In NJ I-94 is mandatory document for license.
The license expires 3 months from i-94 expiration date.


hello Gurus, Need quick help, My driver's license is expiring and my company's immigration team couldnt track the hard copy of the receipt for H1B extension, they have the number though. How can the driver's license be extended without the actual receipt copy.
Please move it to the appropriate thread.
Thanks, Sweta.

[khushraho]

Same experience for me in MA too..MA is very liberal..I think that is the only state that does like this..

[bookworm]

hello Gurus, Need quick help, My driver's license is expiring and my company's immigration team couldnt track the hard copy of the receipt for H1B extension, they have the number though. How can the driver's license be extended without the actual receipt copy.
Please move it to the appropriate thread.
Thanks, Sweta.

IMHO, most states that link DL to immigration status use the I-94 to verify your eligibility. E.g. My H1B extension got approved in early Jan. I returned fro India with a New I-94 in last week Jan. Went to CA-DMV on Feb 1st but they couldn't confirm that it was renewed as "it wasn't in the system". My (un)educated guess is that they were trying to match the I-94 in the passport to the date in the system (which was not updated).

You could go to the DMV and show the passport and I-94 and they could look it up and tell you if they can or can not renew it.

In CA if the extension is pending, they will typically give you a one year DL extension, if you have an approval in hand they will give you a 5 year extension.

[Pundit Arjun]

How come you don't have your copy of 797? That's the one you should be using.

If you don't have one ... do you at least have the case number? If so you can go to USCIS and get the onlie case status to prove it was approved.

That's the most I can think of. Sorry.

Sweta,

You even dont need the approval but just the receipt notice(again the I797). The DMV will then extend your license upto 240 days from the I-94 expiration date. This is how I got my extension in Wisconsin.
Talk to your attorney to get a duplicate receipt copy. Also follow Q's suggestion to check the status online, print it and then use it.
Also, I would encourage you to call the DMV and ask them for options.

I did talk to the DMV folks and usually not all of them at the DMV can answer immigration visa related questions. Be patient and explain them your situation clearly and they would forward your call to the right expert.

Dont panic, I am sure you are not the first in losing your receipt notice. Going forward, keep it safe :)

[suninphx]

Same experience for me in MA too..MA is very liberal..I think that is the only state that does like this..

True..

In case of Missouri, (which is 'show me' state) one needs letter from employer (in addition to standard immigration documents) verifying you are still working with them. (and this is required even if you are obtaining license for family members on H4) :)

[makmohan]

Same experience for me in MA too..MA is very liberal..I think that is the only state that does like this..

same experience in MA too.. probably another cool thing in MA besides weather.

[pdmay2008]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_May2012.pdf

D. RETROGRESSION OF THE CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE
CUT-OFF DATE
Due to the rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, demand for China and India
Employment Second preference numbers has increased dramatically during recent
months, and at a much faster rate than had been expected. Therefore, it has been
necessary to retrogress that cut-off date to August 15, 2007 in an attempt to
hold number use within the annual limit while maintaining availability for those
countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit. Notices were
included in the November, January, and February Visa Bulletins alerting readers
to the possibility of such a retrogression. While corrective action has become
necessary earlier than was anticipated based on the information available at the
time cut-off dates were determined, it is hoped that readers are not caught off
guard by this retrogression.

Should additional information regarding potential demand become available, it may
be necessary to take additional corrective action at any time.
Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second
preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010.
This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which
take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off
date which may apply at that time until late summer.
USCIS has indicated that it will continue accepting China and India Employment
Second preference I-485 filings based on the originally announced April cut-off
date.

[abcx13]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_May2012.pdf

D. RETROGRESSION OF THE CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE
CUT-OFF DATE
Due to the rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, demand for China and India
Employment Second preference numbers has increased dramatically during recent
months, and at a much faster rate than had been expected. Therefore, it has been
necessary to retrogress that cut-off date to August 15, 2007 in an attempt to
hold number use within the annual limit while maintaining availability for those
countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit. Notices were
included in the November, January, and February Visa Bulletins alerting readers
to the possibility of such a retrogression. While corrective action has become
necessary earlier than was anticipated based on the information available at the
time cut-off dates were determined, it is hoped that readers are not caught off
guard by this retrogression.

Should additional information regarding potential demand become available, it may
be necessary to take additional corrective action at any time.
Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second
preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010.
This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which
take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off
date which may apply at that time until late summer.
USCIS has indicated that it will continue accepting China and India Employment
Second preference I-485 filings based on the originally announced April cut-off
date.

I might be reading too much into this, but does CO/DoS think they can hit May 1, 2010 in FY-2013 again? I'm almost certain that can't be the case but I guess I-485 inventory will give us a better picture.

[abcx13]

Oh, and BTW, unless CO knows something about HR3012 being a slamdunk, which I doubt, this is ominous:

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Potential need for cut-off date to be established

China and India: Potentially “Unavailable”

This suggests that CO/USCIS has overallocated visas through QSP to EB2-IC at the cost of EB2-ROW/EB1. EB2-ROW is probably being regressed in favor of EB1. I guess EB2-ROW will become current again at the beginning of FY2013. Sucks for them, but I'd rather CO keeps making 'mistakes' like this because it helps the EB2-IC backlog. Doubt he'll keep over-allocating like this though.

[Spectator]

I would be more worried by Section F


F. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (monthly)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Potential need for cut-off date to be established

China and India: Potentially “Unavailable”

Employment Third:
Worldwide: three to five weeks
China: up to six weeks
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: three to five weeks
Philippines: three to five weeks

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current

Please be advised that the above ranges are only estimates for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand which can occur at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

That pretty much says that either:

a) EB2-Non IC has very high possible demand.
and/or
b) More visas have been allocated to EB2-IC than should have been, meaning there may not be enough for EB2-Non IC remaining.

Either way, it is a pretty chilling comment, although it probably refers to a worst case scenario.

It certainly makes it relatively less likely that Cut off Dates will move forward before the end of the year.

If a Cut Off Date did have to be established for EB2-Non IC in FY2012, it 100% means too many visas were allocated to EB2-IC, since they are already beyond the initial allocation of 5.6k.

[Spectator]

I might be reading too much into this, but does CO/DoS think they can hit May 1, 2010 in FY-2013 again? I'm almost certain that can't be the case but I guess I-485 inventory will give us a better picture.I don't understand this either.

Unless USCIS stop pre-adjudicating cases after August 2007 entirely, by October 2012 there will be more pre-adjudicated cases than visas available, even if QSP is used.

That would mean a Cut Off Date earlier than May 2010 would have to be imposed, probably in early/mid 2008.

As an aside, it is annoying that the Demand Data has not been updated. It probably means it won't be published this month.

[abcx13]

I don't understand this either.

Unless USCIS stop pre-adjudicating cases after August 2007 entirely, by October 2012 there will be more pre-adjudicated cases than visas available, even if QSP is used.

That would mean a Cut Off Date earlier than May 2010 would have to be imposed, probably in early/mid 2008.

Agreed. I think our posts about Section F overlapped. I think if HR3012 doesn't pass post-2010 filers might be screwed for a while, especially if EB2-ROW usage is rising beyond their cap. I didn't even consider that possibility.

Report on visa rejections disrupting Indian IT operations in US - http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-04-05/news/31294081_1_employees-from-foreign-offices-l1-visa-restrictions. Things sound bad for them and I'm sorry but I'm not that sorry considering all the fraud and abuse they perpetrate in all visa categories. I went to a top 10 US Univ for a MS and none of the Indian IT companies are anywhere on the list of companies I would work for.

[Spectator]

Agreed. I think our posts about Section F overlapped. I think if HR3012 doesn't pass post-2010 filers might be screwed for a while, especially if EB2-ROW usage is rising beyond their cap. I didn't even consider that possibility.

Report on visa rejections disrupting Indian IT operations in US - http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-04-05/news/31294081_1_employees-from-foreign-offices-l1-visa-restrictions. Things sound bad for them and I'm sorry but I'm not that sorry considering all the fraud and abuse they perpetrate in all visa categories. I went to a top 10 US Univ for a MS and none of the Indian IT companies are anywhere on the list of companies I would work for.I have no wish to be controversial, but isn't the quote in the article


Another official of an IT firm said that the visa scarcity was compelling Indian companies to hire additional talent at the customer location, paying often as much as 60% more.

just shorthand for saying they are using the lack of a Prevailing Wage for L1 to bring in cheap labour and undercut the domestic competition?

[abcx13]

I have eeno wish to be controversial, but isn't the quote in the article



just shorthand for saying they are using the lack of a Prevailing Wage for L1 to bring in cheap labour and undercut the domestic competition?

That's the way I read it. The L1 has almost always been a scam since they don't need to be paid prevailing wages. Indian IT companies are now rotating teams of employees on B1 visas too which is even cheaper since they only need to be paid per diems and Indian salaries. And Jack Palmer's testimony backs it up - http://www.cio.com/article/687997/Infosys_Whistleblower_Presents_Evidence_of_Alleged _B_1_Visa_Abuse

Here's more alleged fraud on the part of Indian IT companies - https://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9225847/_Massive_visa_fraud_alleged_in_lawsuit_against_Ind ian_firm?taxonomyId=126&pageNumber=1

I think without visa fraud/abuse the business models of many of these Indian IT companies would fall apart.

I know Grassley is a crazy anti-immigrant, but his suggestions of imposing a prevailing wage on the L1, tightening H1Bs, etc. aren't half bad.

[mesan123]

Number of FB-Based and EB-Based ** Applicants Registered at the National Visa Center (NVC) as of November 2011

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf


if someone already posted this will remove this

[eb2visa]

May Visa Buillietin is out

Interesting comments

D. RETROGRESSION OF THE CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CUT-OFF DATE


Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer.

[imdeng]

Very clear statement of intent there from CO. I am not sure whether it means that PD will move in one shot to May 1, 2010 in FY2013 or whether they will take a gradual step approach. Considering that much of the inventory then will consist of pre-adjuducated cases, I hope they take a gradual approach.


Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer.