EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Spectator]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!qblogfan,

I am so pleased for you!

I remember it has not been easy getting to the finish line.

Today is the first day of of a new chapter, hopefully.

[nishant2200]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

:D qblogfan many many congratulations. you were really missed, you are very popular guy. Show CO some love now, send him a box of chocolates

[suninphx]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

Great news!! Congratulations!!

[fedupwithgc]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

congrats man.. After going through a painful process with your employer I am very happy to see you completing the journey.

[mesan123]

Congrats qblogfan......Enjoy the freedom...Very very happy for you....Now you can visit your home country when ever you want with out any hassles .... :)


Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

[leo07]

Folks, whoever is current and preparing their 485 -- "Please include atleast 3 copies of your Birth Certificates. If your birth certificate is registered late, include 3 copies of all secondary affidavits as well.

I'm sure most would know this already. But, just a thought.

[veni001]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

Congratulations to you and your Family!

I am really glad you hear that your long and painful journey is over! Enjoy your freedom.

[Momster]

Congratulations, QBF!


Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

[Pdmar08]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

qblogfan,
this is wonderful news. i dont know you but some how i feel like i got the gc(i think i read someone saything too on the forum) but this is so cool. genuinely happy for you. please do share your details.

[essenel]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

qblogfan, I had been following your posts and remember that you had a really difficult situation with your employer. Congratulations!!

[RRRRRR]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

Congratulation, Now i can say it is raining. I have gone through each of your posts and other seniors and I am very happy for you. You have gone through the worst and finally you made it.

Once again Enjoy your freedom....

[vizcard]

Folks, whoever is current and preparing their 485 -- "Please include atleast 3 copies of your Birth Certificates. If your birth certificate is registered late, include 3 copies of all secondary affidavits as well.

I'm sure most would know this already. But, just a thought.

Why? If you are going to get a RFE based on BC, it doesn't matter if you send 1 or 3.

[Desperate8]

Guys - first of all congrats to all who went green , Qblogfan dude thank god for getting making you green.

Alright question is this -

I will be closing on our new home end of month , my PD is oct 2008 and so I dont think I would be green by then , having said that Please walk me through the steps towards CHANGE OF ADDRESS.

Thanks in advance

Arun

[vizcard]

Guys - first of all congrats to all who went green , Qblogfan dude thank god for getting making you green.

Alright question is this -

I will be closing on our new home end of month , my PD is oct 2008 and so I dont think I would be green by then , having said that Please walk me through the steps towards CHANGE OF ADDRESS.

Thanks in advance

Arun

2 things you need to do-
1. Fill out a AR-11 online for all people who are on the application (I'm assuming you and your dependents)
2. Call the 800 number on your receipt notice and do a change of address with them as well... may be redundant but worth it.

[usernameisnotvalid]

http://www.uscis.gov/AR-11



Guys - first of all congrats to all who went green , Qblogfan dude thank god for getting making you green.

Alright question is this -

I will be closing on our new home end of month , my PD is oct 2008 and so I dont think I would be green by then , having said that Please walk me through the steps towards CHANGE OF ADDRESS.

Thanks in advance

Arun

[makmohan]

Im in the exact same boat. 8/20/08 PD and H1B expiring on 11/30/12. Im pretty certain, I'll be greened by 11/30. I'm planning on making a game time decision. Even if I don't get greened by then I will most likely stay with EAD.

Thanks suninphx, mrdeeds, vizcard. Most probably I will move on to EAD. Company will not agree for spending another 3-4K for H1 when I already have my EAD. Great if I and other friends receive GCs by then or earlier. Thanks and appreciate your help.

Makmohan

[imdeng]

QBF - I can not tell you how happy I am for you. You have been part of our journey here and we have all shared in your frustrations in dealing with your evil employer. I hope the GC allows you to take the necessary steps forward and makes a meaningful difference to your life. We have all missed your presence here past couple months and I hope that you (and other folks who are now done with their GC journey) will occasionally drop by and continue our association. Congratulations again!

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

[roshannirmal]

On looking at the NVC notices issued over the last year, time taken for the PD to become current has dropped from 7 months to just 1 month.

PD 07/01/2011 can become current in APR VB or May VB.

242

Note: NVC notices data collected from trackitt posts, Q's blog & Ron Gotcher's forum.

[TeddyKoochu]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

Many congratulations to you and your family. I do hope that this news makes you feel relaxed and gives you the much needed peace of mind. For sure now your employer will treat you differently, else you have all the freedom in the world to make a job change after a reasonable span of time.

[dreamer]

That's great news!!!

I read your painful/journey stories on this, its a happy ending now. You might be busy with travel plans now to meet your family.


Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

[eb2ODer]

Hi Qblogfan,

I was reading the birth-certificate thread today when I read this message (Originally Posted by qblogfan 07-19-2011 09:31 AM) from you.
It made me root for you...
I tried looking up if you had already obtained your GC but did not find anything of a casual lookup. Glad to hear you got CPO email today!!! Congratulations!!
There surely is something about this blog... :-)

[kd2008]

On looking at the NVC notices issued over the last year, time taken for the PD to become current has dropped from 7 months to just 1 month.

PD 07/01/2011 can become current in APR VB or May VB.

242

Note: NVC notices data collected from trackitt posts, Q's blog & Ron Gotcher's forum.

Great Job in collecting data! May it be so!

[Jonty Rhodes]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

Very happy for you my friend. Many many congratulations. Hopefully, this GC will change your life for good so you can move on to a better employer, visit your loved ones back in China frequently and do whatever you want to in your life with freedom. Very good news indeed. Again, hearty congratulations to you and good luck for the future.

Hope to see you at least sporadically if not regularly on this forum for your important suggestions like other Gurus who are slowly obtaining their GCs and ending their journeys.

Enjoy :D

[Jonty Rhodes]

On looking at the NVC notices issued over the last year, time taken for the PD to become current has dropped from 7 months to just 1 month.

PD 07/01/2011 can become current in APR VB or May VB.

242

Note: NVC notices data collected from trackitt posts, Q's blog & Ron Gotcher's forum.

Excellent work boss. I am keeping my hopes alive (PD 05/20/2011 EB2I)

[qesehmk]

That is some outstanding and original work Roshan. Thanks. It does make a compelling case for moving the dates into 2011 in the upcoming bulletin.


On looking at the NVC notices issued over the last year, time taken for the PD to become current has dropped from 7 months to just 1 month.

PD 07/01/2011 can become current in APR VB or May VB.

242

Note: NVC notices data collected from trackitt posts, Q's blog & Ron Gotcher's forum.

[pch053]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!
Hearty congratulations, have a great weekend and very best wises for the future!

[harapatta]

On looking at the NVC notices issued over the last year, time taken for the PD to become current has dropped from 7 months to just 1 month.

PD 07/01/2011 can become current in APR VB or May VB.

242

Note: NVC notices data collected from trackitt posts, Q's blog & Ron Gotcher's forum.


Great Job...make lot of sense

[kkruna]

Good work!

However, when dates are moving with leaps and bounds, shrinking gap between notice date and date when PD becomes current makes sense.


On looking at the NVC notices issued over the last year, time taken for the PD to become current has dropped from 7 months to just 1 month.

PD 07/01/2011 can become current in APR VB or May VB.

242

Note: NVC notices data collected from trackitt posts, Q's blog & Ron Gotcher's forum.

[maggie]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

Congratulations qblogfan!!! Very happy for you.

[mesan123]

Great Job :) , if this comes true most of us can get EAD :)


On looking at the NVC notices issued over the last year, time taken for the PD to become current has dropped from 7 months to just 1 month.

PD 07/01/2011 can become current in APR VB or May VB.

242

Note: NVC notices data collected from trackitt posts, Q's blog & Ron Gotcher's forum.

[GCKnowHow]

Congrats!!!!! finally all your pain will come to an end soon. Wishing in advance for a new job. I still remember how frustrated were you.


Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

[vizcard]

On looking at the NVC notices issued over the last year, time taken for the PD to become current has dropped from 7 months to just 1 month.

PD 07/01/2011 can become current in APR VB or May VB.

242

Note: NVC notices data collected from trackitt posts, Q's blog & Ron Gotcher's forum.

As nice as this appears to be, it is highly unlikely that this drives date movement. This is a lagging coincidental indicator. Perhaps not even an indicator. I'm not saying that dates won't move to whatever date but if they move it won't be because of this. Personally I hope they do move at least another 5 months. My brother would get current.

PS: excellent effort in tracking down the data.

[pdfeb09]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

Congratulations QBF .. enjoy !

[nishant2200]

vizcard, who knows really? Both POV seem to be correct depending on how you want to think of it. I do not want to be harbinger of bad news, but if we track the actual bursts of movements, it started out with 3.5 months, then 4 months, then 9 and half months, then one year, and then 4 months, so if we follow the curve, the best case you would suggest for this next April VB would be something less than or equal to 4 months, and worst case but a possible case would be no movement. I don't think he will retrogress, but no movement is a possibility. USCIS approved low hanging fruits on a rapid pace, definitely to try to convince CO of their processing prowess.


As nice as this appears to be, it is highly unlikely that this drives date movement. This is a lagging coincidental indicator. Perhaps not even an indicator. I'm not saying that dates won't move to whatever date but if they move it won't be because of this. Personally I hope they do move at least another 5 months. My brother would get current.

PS: excellent effort in tracking down the data.

[reachme_s]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

Congratulations qblogfan! So happy for you! :)

[pdfeb09]

As nice as this appears to be, it is highly unlikely that this drives date movement. This is a lagging coincidental indicator. Perhaps not even an indicator. I'm not saying that dates won't move to whatever date but if they move it won't be because of this. Personally I hope they do move at least another 5 months. My brother would get current.

PS: excellent effort in tracking down the data.
Vizcard, you stole my words.

Roshan, this is really an excellent work. One that must have taken a lot of efforts. It certainly gives us a historical view. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future gains !! The dates were proabably driven forward by other considerations. Although, there is a calculated anticipation on DOS's part while handing out the NVC notices, and therefore a reasonable expectation for them to make the dates current in a reasonable time, it is, however, not binding on them to follow the trend or to even make the dates current within a year.

I hope what you have found out holds true and the trend continues. It will make a lot of people happy. Heck, I wish they just made the whole darn thing current.

[vishnu]

I agree with Nishant - i can totally see a scenario where CO holds movement for now and once he gets a better picture on SOFAD, starts issues Greencards and correspondingly moving dates forward by the reduced inventory. But this is more a Q4 event (July-Sep). I hope I'm wrong with a PD of Sep 2010 - but lets see...

[pdfeb09]

I agree with Nishant - i can totally see a scenario where CO holds movement for now and once he gets a better picture on SOFAD, starts issues Greencards and correspondingly moving dates forward by the reduced inventory. But this is more a Q4 event (July-Sep). I hope I'm wrong with a PD of Sep 2010 - but lets see...
With the demand data looking the way it does, I don't think CO would want to halt the movement. From his perspective, generating enough demand to cover the visa usage is a paramount concern, more important than how much work USCIS has to do. IMHO.

[Spectator]

With the demand data looking the way it does, I don't think CO would want to halt the movement. From his perspective, generating enough demand to cover the visa usage is a paramount concern, more important than how much work USCIS has to do. IMHO.pdfeb09,

I agree that having enough demand is the most important concern for CO, but I also believe we are already way past that being a consideration.

Even with the Trackitt numbers to date (which are very incomplete for later VB), EB2-I has probably reached 25k new applications and EB2-IC is beyond 30k. That will include some porters and PWMB. The real figure is likely far higher than that.

Further movement isn't really going to help with demand equation at this point, unless a huge proportion of the existing cases from VB movements to date are either unapprovable or very difficult to approve. Also, movement of the COD generates so few CP cases for EB2-IC, it is almost inconsequential.

My perspective, anyway.

[mysati]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

Congratulations QBF! Very happy for you.

[pdfeb09]

pdfeb09,

I agree that having enough demand is the most important concern for CO, but I also believe we are already way past that being a consideration.

Even with the Trackitt numbers to date (which are very incomplete for later VB), EB2-I has probably reached 25k new applications and EB2-IC is beyond 30k. That will include some porters and PWMB. The real figure is likely far higher than that.

Further movement isn't really going to help with demand equation at this point, unless a huge proportion of the existing cases from VB movements to date are either unapprovable or very difficult to approve. Also, movement of the COD generates so few CP cases for EB2-IC, it is almost inconsequential.

My perspective, anyway.
Spectator,
You are absolutely right about there being enough applications to cover the count. The question would be, how would CO justify halting the movement? From the technical point of view, would he not be compelled to move the dates under the pretext of getting more demand if he cannot "show" that there is enough demand now?

Would it not be a case where, even if CO can "see" the demand in future, he cannot "show" it technically? And in that case, be compelled to move the dates further?

I think there will be a small forward movement for a couple of months unless we exhaust the visas. It will give USCIS some time to work on the existing cases and not worry about sending out as many Receipts and worry about EADs and APs. This may create more 485s ready for approval (demand). This will continue until there is enough demand OR CO sees that the demand will not be generated in time to cover the annual quota and hence tries to be aggressive to cover his own side.

Bottom line:
1. I don't think the dates will halt or retrogress just yet.
2. I don't think there will be a big forward movement just yet.

I think May/June/July bulletins will be important bulletins, since Dec/Jan/Feb filers will start hitting the database by then and if Jan/Feb bulletins cannot generate enough demand (whether for lack of USCIS' capability OR demand destruction OR RFEs OR Denials OR whatever), then nothing short of making the dates current will suffice... OTOH if enough demand is generated, the dates will halt/retro during these months... I am betting on JUNE Bulletin IMHO..

I am still not clear about a lot of things that make up the process and therefore am very likely to say something stupid. Please correct me if I am wrong and pardon my mistakes.

[Spectator]

Spectator,
You are absolutely right about there being enough applications to cover the count. The question would be, how would CO justify halting the movement? From the technical point of view, would he not be compelled to move the dates under the pretext of getting more demand if he cannot "show" that there is enough demand now?

Would it not be a case where, even if CO can "see" the demand in future, he cannot "show" it technically? And in that case, be compelled to move the dates further?

I think there will be a small forward movement for a couple of months unless we exhaust the visas. It will give USCIS some time to work on the existing cases and not worry about sending out as many Receipts and worry about EADs and APs. This may create more 485s ready for approval (demand). This will continue until there is enough demand OR CO sees that the demand will not be generated in time to cover the annual quota and hence tries to be aggressive to cover his own side.

Bottom line:
1. I don't think the dates will halt or retrogress just yet.
2. I don't think there will be a big forward movement just yet.

I am still not clear about a lot of things that make up the process and therefore am very likely to say something stupid. Please correct me if I am wrong and pardon my mistakes.pdfeb09,

If I were to play devil's advocate, I would reply as follows.

a) Part of the justification was a low rate of filing (information provided by USCIS). As a result of the Q1 figures released recently, that does not appear to be the case, so he can say filings are higher than previously estimated.

b) Part of the justification was also the slow processing speed by USCIS. That no longer appears to be the case.

As I said before, as far a date progression goes, I think CO will do what he wants to do - it is easy to justify a decision either way. The later we get into the year, if slow processing is a concern, the less likely that any new applications would reach adjudication.

All I am saying is that, while I hope the dates continue to progress, it wouldn't be a complete surprise if he halts the movement now. I don't think retrogression is a possibility at all.

Good luck to everybody.

[bieber]

qblogfan, many congratulations brother

I'm sure everyone on this forum is very excited to hear about your approval, there is an indian movie called K3G about family unions (definitely nothing to do with CO or GC) and you beat that here in a good way, enjoy the freedom

[Nandivada]

EB2I/C didn't move. :(

[qesehmk]

Where is the bulletin?

EB2I/C didn't move. :(

[kd2008]

Where is the bulletin?

He gave the phone number, I think to listen to the bulletin. Nobody is picking up the phone when tried.

[vishnu]

Bummer! So likely holding then till SOFAD season at the very minimum. Funny, a guy on Trackitt started a thread saying his contact told him dates would be unchanged and that bulletin would be out before noon EST

[chengisk]

Whatever that number is for, CO just miffed me. It is about 17 minutes to 5pm in London and I need a beer.

[mrdeeds]

Q- thats IVR number message.

I got thru the number and can confirm non movement.

[manzoorraza]

One of my colleagues just confirmed this too.

I got thru the number and can confirm non movement.

[qesehmk]

This guy must be laughing. First he shows demand virtually at zero and then doesn't move the dates.

Anyway .. this was not far too unexpected ... but lets wait till we see the bulletin.


I got thru the number and can confirm non movement.

[tatikonda]

April VB is out - Unfortunately no move to EB2 - India.

it is confirmed. I listened to recorded message on (202) 663-1541

The Department of State also has available a recorded message with visa cut-off dates which can be heard at: (202) 663-1541.

[mesan123]

I called the number and could listen to the complete Bulletion....he is correct, dates didnt move ....bulletion still not updated in the page


He gave the phone number, I think to listen to the bulletin. Nobody is picking up the phone when tried.

[aGCHopefull]

I called the number too.
IVR says for the month of April.... :(
(I was hoping it maybe the old IVR based on Mar VB)

[bieber]

This guy must be laughing. First he shows demand virtually at zero and then doesn't move the dates.

Anyway .. this was not far too unexpected ... but lets wait till we see the bulletin.
may be the decision is based on number of filings, and the expectation of demand by end of April

[RC_needs_GC]

I called the number too.
IVR says for the month of April.... :(
(I was hoping it maybe the old IVR based on Mar VB)
The number just keeps ringing. I didn't hear any recorded message...

[vishnu]

i think the IVR system is mssed up because of the HUGGGGEEEE volumes of calls that are being lobbed in no doubt... let's wait for the document to see if there is commentary.

[aGCHopefull]

The number just keeps ringing. I didn't hear any recorded message...

Their IVR also seems to be like another loooong wait. You need to be really patient with the number of rings it allows before it plays (or you hung up)

[nellore]

Is it normal for this much time gap between IVR and website?

[kd2008]

I heard the recording. Yes, it is for April. Yes, dates did not move for EB2IC, they are at 1 May 10.

I am assuming this completes the inventory build up for this fiscal year. In future, I am assuming dates will move primarily for inventory build up - provided that there is no retrogression. I think we should now move on to sizing the inventory build up and approvals in more detail by following trackitt trends and USCIS inventory even though we do not have mature enough data yet.

I had discussed earlier that because Apr starts a new quarter, it would be interesting to see if Mr. CO changes gears based on the latest info he hears from USCIS. I guess USCIS has convinced him that they can process enough cases to consume the annual quota. If USCIS keeps pace, then we will be staring starkly towards a possible retrogression in Q4 with the July bulletin and hopefully not before that.

[bookworm]

Question for gurus - How does retrogression affect people at different stages? meaning - How does it affect somebody who has received AP/EAD vs somebody waiting for it vs somebody whose date is(was) current but whose file has not been touched by USCIS vs somebody who has CP scheduled vs somebody who has only received notice from NVC.

If there is a thread or resource that explains this, please feel to point me in that direction.

[nishant2200]

in below in the bolds..

Question for gurus - How does retrogression affect people at different stages? meaning - How does it affect somebody who has received AP/EAD [he can avail of AP to travel freely without restrictions, dependants can use EAD to get SSN and work, primary can use EAD after 180 days of filing for AOS to change to same or similar job and inform USCIS of that] vs somebody waiting for it [if you were never current and waiting, continue the wait, keep extending your H1 visa, try upgrading to higher category]vs somebody whose date is(was) current but whose file has not been touched by USCIS [these will still get the AP/EAD eventually if not already] vs somebody who has CP scheduled [CP interview is only scheduled on the time when date is current, so retrogression will not affect a scheduled CP interview] vs somebody who has only received notice from NVC[he has to pay and wait, he won't be called for interview until he is current].

If there is a thread or resource that explains this, please feel to point me in that direction.

[bookworm]

in below in the bolds..

Thanks Nishant. Appreciate your insight.

[transformer123]

Bulletin is updated on wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priority_date

[bieber]

Bulletin is updated on wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priority_date

China date shows 2011, is it accurate?

[vishnu]

Transformer - anyone can update Wikipedia - so that in itself means nothing. But many people have listened to the IVR recording, so the unchanged date is official

[raj888]

Bulletin is updated on wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priority_date

Anyone can edit the dates on Wikipedia, so its not a reliable source.

[vishnu]

the wiki page is just garbage - ppl just fooling around. now both are may 11.

[skpanda]

from the link...

The dates for Apr 2012 have been updated in Department of State phone number (202.663.1541) but the visa bulletin is not yet out (as of 3/9/12 at 11:15 AM Pacific Time). EB2 India and China are at May 1st 2010. Some users keep undoing this change.





China date shows 2011, is it accurate?

[cancer24]

It shows May 1st, 11 for both I & C. But this is unreliable source - anyone can update it.


China date shows 2011, is it accurate?

[bieber]

from the link...

The dates for Apr 2012 have been updated in Department of State phone number (202.663.1541) but the visa bulletin is not yet out (as of 3/9/12 at 11:15 AM Pacific Time). EB2 India and China are at May 1st 2010. Some users keep undoing this change.

I was shocked to see people actually following wiki page to get the dates

[vizcard]

Im not sure when Q first start this forum. But we are so far ahead is users compared to last year, its not even funny. There are 167 users on right now! and we have reached 240 pages already with not even 6 months gone and thats after having all these off-shoot forums. (FY11 had about 320 pages IIRC).

Great job Q and others for keeping this forum relevant, fresh and most importantly useful!

[vishnu]

convinced DOS just forgot to update the April 2012 link :) they have even put Mar 2012 under archives

[vizcard]

convinced DOS just forgot to update the April 2012 link :) they have even put Mar 2012 under archives

they do that anyway.

[manubhai]

convinced DOS just forgot to update the April 2012 link :) they have even put Mar 2012 under archives

Actually... I think its the other way round. They haven't forgotten at all. They just realized that people are hitting their server for the non-existent pdf file for April 2012 (which is typically available on the server before the VB in the HTML/webpage form). So they decided to send us a hint - "You think you are that smart that you can learn about the VB before we actually want you to??? Fine... from now on... start calling this number and if you wait for 15 minutes... we might be nice enough to tell you that your dates have not moved at all. [INSERT EVIL LAUGHTER] "

At least "I" was hitting the link once every 0.0002 seconds!!!!! Never imagined there will once be a day in my life where I'll create a favorite/bookmark for a page that doesn't already exist on the Internet!

The links that this genius was trying to use:
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Apr2012.pdf
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_April2012.pdf

[veni001]

Im not sure when Q first start this forum. But we are so far ahead is users compared to last year, its not even funny. There are 167 users on right now! and we have reached 240 pages already with not even 6 months gone and thats after having all these off-shoot forums. (FY11 had about 320 pages IIRC).

Great job Q and others for keeping this forum relevant, fresh and most importantly useful!

vizcard,

Just to add to the statistics, it took full year to reach 1 million views for FY2011 thread. FY2012 thread reached that mark in just little over 5 months!

[meranumberkab]

Finally, the link is working

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_April2012.pdf

[soggadu]

sorry guys
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_April2012.pdf

[mysati]

Finally, the link is working

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_April2012.pdf

No additional footnotes or anything, similar to last month. Looks like CO realizes that people will start predicting if he puts in an additional punctuation mark there...does not want us to decipher the method to the madness :D

[eb2ODer]

I think the NVC notices are just part of anticipatory planning. In case USCIS does NOT keep up the pace and have enough pre-adjudicated cases by june/july, CO can open floodgates and stake his claim on CP cases to use up the visa numbers.

[nishant2200]

No additional footnotes or anything, similar to last month. Looks like CO realizes that people will start predicting if he puts in an additional punctuation mark there...does not want us to decipher the method to the madness :D

I was really looking forward to some commentary by CO. He didn't put anything. very disappointing. He could have put some guidance.

[usernameisnotvalid]

The link on visa bulletin is still not live. What is he doing? Giving it second thoughts?:D



I was really looking forward to some commentary by CO. He didn't put anything. very disappointing. He could have put some guidance.

[nishant2200]

The link on visa bulletin is still not live. What is he doing? Giving it second thoughts?:D

no man since the voice recording is done and the pdf is done, I am pretty sure it's already gone out to all consulates around the world via cable. I can't comprehend why its not yet on the web page, really unpardonable.

[mbasense]

I think the NVC notices are just part of anticipatory planning. In case USCIS does NOT keep up the pace and have enough pre-adjudicated cases by june/july, CO can open floodgates and stake his claim on CP cases to use up the visa numbers.

I suppose this is in tune with CO's original comment sometime in October last year, where he said it would move ahead in the first 2-3 months of the year and then plan for eventual retrogression toward spring /summer.

Unless something changes drastically in the interim, unfortunately the predictions would now have to be about the amount of retrogression ..i hope I am wrong in this case:(

[mygctracker]

Is the date stalled? at 01/May/2010?? Is it reliable, DOS is not yet updated..

Also did we get the DD for this month already? sorry if I missed that conversation.

Thanks

[Pundit Arjun]

Is the date stalled? at 01/May/2010?? Is it reliable, DOS is not yet updated..

Also did we get the DD for this month already? sorry if I missed that conversation.

Thanks

mygctracker, Looks like the information about April bulletin is reliable. Folks have got the updates via Phone.

Yes, the DD was out yesterday.

[Desperate8]

Guys -

I got a CPO ordered mail today without decision mail for both me and my wife is this obvious , my PD is oct 2008 . my wife didnot go through vaccinations we were expecting RFE man cant believe.


god is great

[veni001]

Guys -

I got a CPO ordered mail today without decision mail for both me and my wife is this obvious , my PD is oct 2008 . my wife didnot go through vaccinations we were expecting RFE man cant believe.


god is great

Desperate8,
That is really quick. Congratulations!

[iamdeb]

Really disappointing bulletin. Gurus I have been questions regarding my situation.

I have approved I140 with PD May 2011 on my 6th yr H1.Recently I got my H1B extension for 3 more years based on my approved I140.
1.If my switch my employer and the new employer doesn't start GC processing soon, what will happen to my H1b Status? Will I be able to stay on my newly acquired 3 yr extended H1?

[Desperate8]

Cannot believe yet hope my CPO mail is not a mistake
Willie be guys am I greened really. Tears
Are rolling out while typing this
Have been thru struggle for 8 long
Years

[mesan123]

CONGRATULATIONS enjoy the freedom.......


Cannot believe yet hope my CPO mail is not a mistake
Willie be guys am I greened really. Tears
Are rolling out while typing this
Have been thru struggle for 8 long
Years

[sweta.shetty]

Congrats Desperate8, enjoy the new phase of life :)

[veni001]

Really disappointing bulletin. Gurus I have been questions regarding my situation.

I have approved I140 with PD May 2011 on my 6th yr H1.Recently I got my H1B extension for 3 more years based on my approved I140.
1.If my switch my employer and the new employer doesn't start GC processing soon, what will happen to my H1b Status? Will I be able to stay on my newly acquired 3 yr extended H1?

iamdeb,
Yes, once approved your H1B is valid for that duration.

[Desperate8]

Thank you all-
Here is my history (me and spouse)
PD : Oct 8 2008
RD : Jan 03 2012
ND : Jan 05 2012
FP : Feb 03 2012
EAD : FEB 15 2012
I-485 - Card Production Ordered 03/09/2012 - YES LUD Happened.

1. MS in USA - NO
2. Nature of your company(Consulting/Non-IT/fortune 500) - IT Consulting 150 employees
3. Ever changed employers/jobs on H-1B? - YES 1 time in 2009 after 4 years with the employer
4. How many years in USA and on H-1B? 8 Years
5. How many years with your current H-1B employer? 3 Years close to be
6. Are there any complexities ever in your case? (Like 221g/porting/SOI/more than one Perm/Out of status/any charges/court records etc..) - YES I-140 got denied under premium processing , Opened a MTR and got approval.
7. Have you submitted Late Reg BC and affidavits or just late reg BC? - MY BC had Issued date late but registered date was correct
8. what about flu shots? Yes , but my wife didnot take vaccination as we had our second baby.
9. Over 5 years continues stay in US? Close to 4+
10. Do you have a simple/common name/surname? Yes

Thank you all for your support , still cannot believe the fact that we are greened , want to touch , kiss , hug, stare at the "GREEN CARD" soon.

Wish you all good luck and I believe all of you get your Green card by End of this fiscal year.
I should thank god and my employer for being supportive , not to mention but yes my family without them nothing was possible.

[suninphx]

Thank you all-
Here is my history (me and spouse)
PD : Oct 8 2008
RD : Jan 03 2012
ND : Jan 05 2012
FP : Feb 03 2012
EAD : FEB 15 2012
I-485 - Card Production Ordered 03/09/2012 - YES LUD Happened.

1. MS in USA - NO
2. Nature of your company(Consulting/Non-IT/fortune 500) - IT Consulting 150 employees
3. Ever changed employers/jobs on H-1B? - YES 1 time in 2009 after 4 years with the employer
4. How many years in USA and on H-1B? 8 Years
5. How many years with your current H-1B employer? 3 Years close to be
6. Are there any complexities ever in your case? (Like 221g/porting/SOI/more than one Perm/Out of status/any charges/court records etc..) - YES I-140 got denied under premium processing , Opened a MTR and got approval.
7. Have you submitted Late Reg BC and affidavits or just late reg BC? - MY BC had Issued date late but registered date was correct
8. what about flu shots? Yes , but my wife didnot take vaccination as we had our second baby.
9. Over 5 years continues stay in US? Close to 4+
10. Do you have a simple/common name/surname? Yes

Thank you all for your support , still cannot believe the fact that we are greened , want to touch , kiss , hug, stare at the "GREEN CARD" soon.

Wish you all good luck and I believe all of you get your Green card by End of this fiscal year.
I should thank god and my employer for being supportive , not to mention but yes my family without them nothing was possible.

Congratulations!!

I rembember you getting desperate few days back about whether you will get GC this year and there you go! Enjoy !

This news is even sweeter when I read your details. That should give lot of comfort factor to people working as consultants. Frankly I don't believe much in all this MS, direct employee etc etc being low hanging fruit. IMO at this stage Luck is the greatest factor that decides whether you are low hanging fruit or not.

[reachme_s]

Thank you all-
Here is my history (me and spouse)
PD : Oct 8 2008
RD : Jan 03 2012
ND : Jan 05 2012
FP : Feb 03 2012
EAD : FEB 15 2012
I-485 - Card Production Ordered 03/09/2012 - YES LUD Happened.

1. MS in USA - NO
2. Nature of your company(Consulting/Non-IT/fortune 500) - IT Consulting 150 employees
3. Ever changed employers/jobs on H-1B? - YES 1 time in 2009 after 4 years with the employer
4. How many years in USA and on H-1B? 8 Years
5. How many years with your current H-1B employer? 3 Years close to be
6. Are there any complexities ever in your case? (Like 221g/porting/SOI/more than one Perm/Out of status/any charges/court records etc..) - YES I-140 got denied under premium processing , Opened a MTR and got approval.
7. Have you submitted Late Reg BC and affidavits or just late reg BC? - MY BC had Issued date late but registered date was correct
8. what about flu shots? Yes , but my wife didnot take vaccination as we had our second baby.
9. Over 5 years continues stay in US? Close to 4+
10. Do you have a simple/common name/surname? Yes

Thank you all for your support , still cannot believe the fact that we are greened , want to touch , kiss , hug, stare at the "GREEN CARD" soon.

Wish you all good luck and I believe all of you get your Green card by End of this fiscal year.
I should thank god and my employer for being supportive , not to mention but yes my family without them nothing was possible.

Congratulations Desparate8!! Enjoy the green life!! :)

[Desperate8]

Interesting , got another CPO email / SMS in about 4 hours from the first one for both me and my wife . Is this common ? The text is exactly the same.

Why did I get 2 identical emails / sms each for both me and my wife (total 4) - any idea , did gurus Nishant / Veni / Teddy / q any one in the forum experience such a thing. Also to note I didnot get any update on Decesion , it was straight CPO mail.

[veni001]

Interesting , got another CPO email / SMS in about 4 hours from the first one for both me and my wife . Is this common ? The text is exactly the same.

Why did I get 2 identical emails / sms each for both me and my wife (total 4) - any idea , did gurus Nishant / Veni / Teddy / q any one in the forum experience such a thing. Also to note I didnot get any update on Decesion , it was straight CPO mail.

Desperate8,
Yes, it is normal. Case status will change between CPO to decision to post decision activity, if you signup for e-mail/SMS, you will receive update for each one of them.

[usernameisnotvalid]

Desperate8 has priority date of Oct-2008. Does it set a new threshold for actual GCs this FY?

[longgcque]

Well .. trackitt even shows a Dec 2008 approval. So am not sure if Oct 2008 is the cut off. I believe till the time dates remain current for a date and a case is approvable(background checks etc) ... approval will keep coming ...

i hope my turn comes :-)


Desperate8 has priority date of Oct-2008. Does it set a new threshold for actual GCs this FY?

[Spectator]

Well .. trackitt even shows a Dec 2008 approval. So am not sure if Oct 2008 is the cut off. I believe till the time dates remain current for a date and a case is approvable(background checks etc) ... approval will keep coming ...

i hope my turn comes :-)TSC really do seem to be picking the low hanging fruit. Despite low % approvals for previous VB periods, they seem to have moved on to the January VB (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012).

At least NSC seems to be making some effort to roughly approve in PD order.

Perhaps that is not too worrying yet, but it will become so if it continues, at least for people who have cases at TSC with earlier PD.

[vizcard]

Thank you all-
Here is my history (me and spouse)
PD : Oct 8 2008
RD : Jan 03 2012
ND : Jan 05 2012
FP : Feb 03 2012
EAD : FEB 15 2012
I-485 - Card Production Ordered 03/09/2012 - YES LUD Happened.

1. MS in USA - NO
2. Nature of your company(Consulting/Non-IT/fortune 500) - IT Consulting 150 employees
3. Ever changed employers/jobs on H-1B? - YES 1 time in 2009 after 4 years with the employer
4. How many years in USA and on H-1B? 8 Years
5. How many years with your current H-1B employer? 3 Years close to be
6. Are there any complexities ever in your case? (Like 221g/porting/SOI/more than one Perm/Out of status/any charges/court records etc..) - YES I-140 got denied under premium processing , Opened a MTR and got approval.
7. Have you submitted Late Reg BC and affidavits or just late reg BC? - MY BC had Issued date late but registered date was correct
8. what about flu shots? Yes , but my wife didnot take vaccination as we had our second baby.
9. Over 5 years continues stay in US? Close to 4+
10. Do you have a simple/common name/surname? Yes

Thank you all for your support , still cannot believe the fact that we are greened , want to touch , kiss , hug, stare at the "GREEN CARD" soon.

Wish you all good luck and I believe all of you get your Green card by End of this fiscal year.
I should thank god and my employer for being supportive , not to mention but yes my family without them nothing was possible.

Congrats! Are you TSC or NSC?

[essenel]

TSC really do seem to be picking the low hanging fruit. Despite low % approvals for previous VB periods, they seem to have moved on to the January VB (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012).

At least NSC seems to be making some effort to roughly approve in PD order.

Perhaps that is not too worrying yet, but it will become so if it continues, at least for people who have cases at TSC with earlier PD.

Spec, thanks for your input. What is your take regarding why some cases are taking so long to approve?

[eb2ODer]

One more jan filer with PD in july 2008 got approval from TSC http://www.trackitt.com/member/mrnm


TSC really do seem to be picking the low hanging fruit. Despite low % approvals for previous VB periods, they seem to have moved on to the January VB (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012).

At least NSC seems to be making some effort to roughly approve in PD order.

Perhaps that is not too worrying yet, but it will become so if it continues, at least for people who have cases at TSC with earlier PD.

[Desperate8]

You guys are like a family to us, dot CPO
Mail yesterday and today in ER for our
6 weeks old baby. Keep us in prayer.
For someone who asked I'm am TSC

[longgcque]

Bro' ..Hope ur baby is OK and he/she gets better soon.


You guys are like a family to us, dot CPO
Mail yesterday and today in ER for our
6 weeks old baby. Keep us in prayer.
For someone who asked I'm am TSC

[kingjeremy]

Not on the website, but someone at trackitt posted a pdf link

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_April2012.pdf

EB2-I: No Movement
EB3-I: 1 Sep 2002

Apologies if this has been posted before, in a rush and don't have the time to flip back a few pages.

Good luck everyone. Hope dates move forward in May.

[vizcard]

You guys are like a family to us, dot CPO
Mail yesterday and today in ER for our
6 weeks old baby. Keep us in prayer.
For someone who asked I'm am TSC

Hope all goes well. Your family will be in our prayers.

[mesan123]

Hoping everthing will be fine soon. Your family will be in our prayers.


You guys are like a family to us, dot CPO
Mail yesterday and today in ER for our
6 weeks old baby. Keep us in prayer.
For someone who asked I'm am TSC

[qesehmk]

All best wishes Desper8. Things will be alright. Please keep us posted about your little one.
You guys are like a family to us, dot CPO
Mail yesterday and today in ER for our
6 weeks old baby. Keep us in prayer.
For someone who asked I'm am TSC

[TeddyKoochu]

Thank you all-
Here is my history (me and spouse)
PD : Oct 8 2008
RD : Jan 03 2012
ND : Jan 05 2012
FP : Feb 03 2012
EAD : FEB 15 2012
I-485 - Card Production Ordered 03/09/2012 - YES LUD Happened.

1. MS in USA - NO
2. Nature of your company(Consulting/Non-IT/fortune 500) - IT Consulting 150 employees
3. Ever changed employers/jobs on H-1B? - YES 1 time in 2009 after 4 years with the employer
4. How many years in USA and on H-1B? 8 Years
5. How many years with your current H-1B employer? 3 Years close to be
6. Are there any complexities ever in your case? (Like 221g/porting/SOI/more than one Perm/Out of status/any charges/court records etc..) - YES I-140 got denied under premium processing , Opened a MTR and got approval.
7. Have you submitted Late Reg BC and affidavits or just late reg BC? - MY BC had Issued date late but registered date was correct
8. what about flu shots? Yes , but my wife didnot take vaccination as we had our second baby.
9. Over 5 years continues stay in US? Close to 4+
10. Do you have a simple/common name/surname? Yes

Thank you all for your support , still cannot believe the fact that we are greened , want to touch , kiss , hug, stare at the "GREEN CARD" soon.

Wish you all good luck and I believe all of you get your Green card by End of this fiscal year.
I should thank god and my employer for being supportive , not to mention but yes my family without them nothing was possible.

Many congratulations to you and your family. Hope your baby gets well soon.

[Desperate8]

Thank you family ,with your blessings the baby seems to be normal all/any tests were negative

[TeddyKoochu]

Well .. trackitt even shows a Dec 2008 approval. So am not sure if Oct 2008 is the cut off. I believe till the time dates remain current for a date and a case is approvable(background checks etc) ... approval will keep coming ...

i hope my turn comes :-)


TSC really do seem to be picking the low hanging fruit. Despite low % approvals for previous VB periods, they seem to have moved on to the January VB (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012).

At least NSC seems to be making some effort to roughly approve in PD order.

Perhaps that is not too worrying yet, but it will become so if it continues, at least for people who have cases at TSC with earlier PD.

Spec thanks for your great presentation. When you present something everyone is literally a spectator !
Good to note that we are now reaching the 50% approval figure for Nov filers and 35% for Dec filers. At this rate surely 20K SOFAD may well be allocated by the end of March and we can expect 35K for the year. This is based on 10K consumption for the preadjudicated cases and 10K for the new filings. SOFAD this year would definitely come close to 35K if USCIS is not stepping ahead of the quarterly allocation. I agree with the 80% Trackitt threshold 20% people do not historically update their profiles. On Trackitt the number of EB2-I cases is probably far higher than expected and due to the great excitement on the date movement.
A lot of Nov filers waiting now are actually those with RFE's. Atleast 25% people seem to be getting RFE's. Most of the older people waiting are from TSC literally some people have not seen any updates on their cases. If I see around my own receipt number before and after there are few cases that are approved either cases are untouched or there is a RFE. People will be ok as long as everyone can get approved and the numbers itself don't run out.
I would bet that by Sep 2012 everyone till 01-JAN-2009 will get GC in hand if 35K + SOFAD literally happens with demand destruction OR at 0.75.

[soggadu]

Thank you family ,with your blessings the baby seems to be normal all/any tests were negative

This news is better than your GC news!!!! All the best...

[vizcard]

speaking of babies, soggadu - your avatar is funny as hell but also seriously disturbing :P

[suninphx]

Spec thanks for your great presentation. When you present something everyone is literally a spectator !
Good to note that we are now reaching the 50% approval figure for Nov filers and 35% for Dec filers. At this rate surely 20K SOFAD may well be allocated by the end of March and we can expect 35K for the year. This is based on 10K consumption for the preadjudicated cases and 10K for the new filings. SOFAD this year would definitely come close to 35K if USCIS is not stepping ahead of the quarterly allocation. I agree with the 80% Trackitt threshold 20% people do not historically update their profiles. On Trackitt the number of EB2-I cases is probably far higher than expected and due to the great excitement on the date movement.
A lot of Nov filers waiting now are actually those with RFE's. Atleast 25% people seem to be getting RFE's. Most of the older people waiting are from TSC literally some people have not seen any updates on their cases. If I see around my own receipt number before and after there are few cases that are approved either cases are untouched or there is a RFE. People will be ok as long as everyone can get approved and the numbers itself don't run out.
I would bet that by Sep 2012 everyone till 01-JAN-2009 will get GC in hand if 35K + SOFAD literally happens with demand destruction OR at 0.75.

As always great notes Teddy. If nothing changes then there is very high chance that at end of FY2012 dates will be much further than 2008 Q1. And as you rightly noted it will be combined effect of demand destruction and higher SOFAD. Let's see how things pan out. And don't be surprised if some Feb filers get approved stating next month as dates are still current. So eventually another interesting statistics would be 'remaining demand' at end of FY 2012.

[mesan123]

Soggadu Bhai changed to that avatar for Teddy...Once Teddy gets Greened, he will be back in his jolly Avatar :)


speaking of babies, soggadu - your avatar is funny as hell but also seriously disturbing :P

[iamdeb]

Quick question about H1B extension. My wife's H1B extension is due in oct 2012.when is the earliest she can file for her H1B extension?

[mesan123]

She can file 6 months before her expiry. hope this helps :)


Quick question about H1B extension. My wife's H1B extension is due in oct 2012.when is the earliest she can file for her H1B extension?

[Spectator]

Spec thanks for your great presentation. When you present something everyone is literally a spectator !
Good to note that we are now reaching the 50% approval figure for Nov filers and 35% for Dec filers. At this rate surely 20K SOFAD may well be allocated by the end of March and we can expect 35K for the year. This is based on 10K consumption for the preadjudicated cases and 10K for the new filings. SOFAD this year would definitely come close to 35K if USCIS is not stepping ahead of the quarterly allocation. I agree with the 80% Trackitt threshold 20% people do not historically update their profiles. On Trackitt the number of EB2-I cases is probably far higher than expected and due to the great excitement on the date movement.
A lot of Nov filers waiting now are actually those with RFE's. Atleast 25% people seem to be getting RFE's. Most of the older people waiting are from TSC literally some people have not seen any updates on their cases. If I see around my own receipt number before and after there are few cases that are approved either cases are untouched or there is a RFE. People will be ok as long as everyone can get approved and the numbers itself don't run out.
I would bet that by Sep 2012 everyone till 01-JAN-2009 will get GC in hand if 35K + SOFAD literally happens with demand destruction OR at 0.75.Teddy,

Thanks for the kind words and your great summing up. I wish I could do that in a brief manner as well!

I mostly agree with what you say, although I have some concerns about the "ifs".


As always great notes Teddy. If nothing changes then there is very high chance that at end of FY2012 dates will be much further than 2008 Q1. And as you rightly noted it will be combined effect of demand destruction and higher SOFAD. Let's see how things pan out. And don't be surprised if some Feb filers get approved stating next month as dates are still current. So eventually another interesting statistics would be 'remaining demand' at end of FY 2012.suninphx,

I'm sure ending dates for FY2012 will be beyond Q1 2008 because of TLB (Those Left Behind) aka people still waiting for I-485 approval with earlier PD.

Interesting you should mention approvals of Feb filers. I have been thinking about that as well.

I'm not sure when they will start, but I wondered whether that could precipitate retrogression, if CO thinks final dates will eventually lie somewhere in 2008 or early 2009. Maybe not, as he is probably laser focused on there being enough approvals and nothing else.

Eventually late PD approvals will mean that TLBs will have to wait until the next FY for approval. If there are a lot and the cases are finally adjudicated, the Cut Off Dates will move quite slowly at the beginning of FY2013.

[suninphx]

Teddy,

Thanks for the kind words and your great summing up. I wish I could do that in a brief manner as well!

I mostly agree with what you say, although I have some concerns about the "ifs".

suninphx,

I'm sure ending dates for FY2012 will be beyond Q1 2008 because of TLB (Those Left Behind) aka people still waiting for I-485 approval with earlier PD.

Interesting you should mention approvals of Feb filers. I have been thinking about that as well.

I'm not sure when they will start, but I wondered whether that could precipitate retrogression, if CO thinks final dates will eventually lie somewhere in 2008 or early 2009. Maybe not, as he is probably laser focused on there being enough approvals and nothing else.

Eventually late PD approvals will mean that TLBs will have to wait until the next FY for approval. If there are a lot and the cases are finally adjudicated, the Cut Off Dates will move quite slowly at the beginning of FY2013.

Spec,

While I agree that there could be some TLBs , but IMO, that would not be 'only' factor for FY ending dates to move beyond Q1 2008.
I really hope that some order returns to the approval dates so that we can have predictable movement. But as things stand today, it's anybody's game right now, as long as one's date stays current.

[TorreyPines]

Friends,

Below is my post back in Jan. I understand that my predictions/theories might just be a sheer coincidence/luck (Scenario B) with what is happening right now, but I strongly believe it is this forum that has enabled me to think the way I did. No other forum on the entire web! Big 5 and vital 100s, thank you!


Guys,

Long time follower, first-time poster. As other poster said, this site undoubtedly has the best Signal-to-Noise ratio (SNR). Kudos to all.

I am trying to understand what is the parameter being used by CO to move dates forward (long/short movements). If demand is gauged by:

A. Visa numbers requested by USCIS: These numbers increase big enough only when Dec-Feb filers are documentarily qualified. Not going to happen for 2-3 of months from now. So can expect 3-6 month/VB movement for 2-3 months OR 1 year movement in March VB and stall for next two. After that comes 2012 spillover season.

B. Number of I-485 receipts with some multiplication factor: Will CO be interested in these numbers since # of receipts means nothing to him when it comes to today's visa numbers' consumption? If interested, forward movement might stop starting April VB. March VB is 50-50 for at max ~6-month movement and is subject to how many file I-485 for PD 2009 (assuming good percentage of PD 2008 guys will file by end of Feb).

C. He does a inky-pinky-ponky on different PD cutoffs, which I hope not.

Can experts agree/disagree which one of the above is most-likely?

PS: Apologize if this is an already discussed and blessed discussion.

[Desperate8]

This news is better than your GC news!!!! All the best...

Thanks Soggadu and others ,yes GC news bought a lot of joy but the next news that our baby had nothing but a superficial skin allergy brough back the jaan in us - For me nothing is as precious as my family - and I believe its the same for all of us.
I was told about this forum by one of my friend , his PD is Sep 2007 TSC still waiting , I definately was not expecting my CPO mails, I still dont know how TSC is processing cases - One thing I want to share at this juncture is that my I-140 was denied for a simple and un-usual reason , it was a premium process and still it took close to 8 months to get the approval. One of my friend was joking around saying that I would have got the CPO mail because the officer who had denied my case earlier would have added notes to give my case more priority :) - anyways I want and would pray for all my friends in this forum and would want to be a part of your celebrations aswell.

Please keep posting your success stories , I will keep you posted with any updates on my end.

BTW how long after CPO mails would I be seeing the next set of mails for decesion and then finally the GC - how far am I from touching my cards :) ?

[qesehmk]

D
What exactly the mail says?

I wonder your case is an indication of preadjudicated cases this year just like the ones from 2007 filers.


Thanks Soggadu and others ,yes GC news bought a lot of joy but the next news that our baby had nothing but a superficial skin allergy brough back the jaan in us - For me nothing is as precious as my family - and I believe its the same for all of us.
I was told about this forum by one of my friend , his PD is Sep 2007 TSC still waiting , I definately was not expecting my CPO mails, I still dont know how TSC is processing cases - One thing I want to share at this juncture is that my I-140 was denied for a simple and un-usual reason , it was a premium process and still it took close to 8 months to get the approval. One of my friend was joking around saying that I would have got the CPO mail because the officer who had denied my case earlier would have added notes to give my case more priority :) - anyways I want and would pray for all my friends in this forum and would want to be a part of your celebrations aswell.

Please keep posting your success stories , I will keep you posted with any updates on my end.

BTW how long after CPO mails would I be seeing the next set of mails for decesion and then finally the GC - how far am I from touching my cards :) ?

[usernameisnotvalid]

Keep in mind VSC is taking almost 5-6 months to approve an extension.


Quick question about H1B extension. My wife's H1B extension is due in oct 2012.when is the earliest she can file for her H1B extension?

[Desperate8]

Your Current Case Status for Form I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS

Card/ Document Production
On March 9, 2012, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.

This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

If you do not receive your document, please contact our National Customer Service Center at 1-800-375-5283.



Q/OTHERS does this mean i am only preadjucated and waiting on visa number??? and will not be getting card any time soon? I went from initial review to CPO directly ,I STILL THINK ITS A BUG , an update table without a where clause , what are your
views, Q BOUGHT THE LIGHT ELEMENT OF DOUBT HE HAD :)

[Desperate8]

--------------------------------------------------------------------

@Suninphx

nothing personal against deperate8.... i guess you are right..there is no value for/of people who came to USA (legally) by following the right approach .....spending family's money and invest their time to study the MS/MBA or phDs. and still waiting for the GCs.......10 years...Why ? becaz they didn't use the so called IT consultants?????
while as people with little or some IT knowledge come to us and get through consultants and then apply EB3 and port to EB2 using ...not so existing exp. and get the GCs. ---- America ...Land of opportunity! with Luck!

I value and respect your thoughts , i am a father of 2 beautiful kids, did 2 masters , came in 2004, ditched by emp 1, went from black to gray to bald , want to be a FT EMPLOYEE , i am always for EB3 folks , i can be in their shoes and feel the pain.

[vizcard]

Your Current Case Status for Form I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS

Card/ Document Production
On March 9, 2012, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.

This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

If you do not receive your document, please contact our National Customer Service Center at 1-800-375-5283.



Q/OTHERS does this mean i am only preadjucated and waiting on visa number??? and will not be getting card any time soon? I went from initial review to CPO directly ,I STILL THINK ITS A BUG , an update table without a where clause , what are your
views, Q BOUGHT THE LIGHT ELEMENT OF DOUBT HE HAD :)

You are all set. You should get a follow up email saying that they have been shipped. I believe if you are just preadjudicated and waiting for visa, it would show up as "Approved" under Decision.

By all accounts there should be about 10k+ SOFAD still left.

[Desperate8]

just saw i m promoted to Sophomore

[qesehmk]

D you are all set. Card is only ordered after a visa has been allocated.

This is a really good news for all EB2IC folks. It clearly indicates that there is a significant amount of demand destruction. I haven't calculated how much as yet. But I think Teddy and Spec and others have done a good amount of work.


Your Current Case Status for Form I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS

Card/ Document Production
On March 9, 2012, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.

This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

If you do not receive your document, please contact our National Customer Service Center at 1-800-375-5283.



Q/OTHERS does this mean i am only preadjucated and waiting on visa number??? and will not be getting card any time soon? I went from initial review to CPO directly ,I STILL THINK ITS A BUG , an update table without a where clause , what are your
views, Q BOUGHT THE LIGHT ELEMENT OF DOUBT HE HAD :)

[cool_dude]

Hi,
My priority date is June 2011 and I140 is approved.When do you think I will be able to apply for I-485.

[Desperate8]

Some one sent me a PM , I am not sure how to reply a PM back and so this blog, may be it is useful to many others

I took MMR , FLU SHOT and TB Test

On the other hand , my wife being pregnant then did just her physicals none of the shots / tests above.

The doctor checked the waiver box in I693 for my wife and had a note which said pregnant blah blah...

In my case I have to take MMR again after 6 months and so he had marked Insufficient time interval.


Birth Certificates - My registration was done in the same month and year of birth but we didnot have a copy so had to request one , got one with the issued date of a recent date. , I didnot submit any affidavits.

For my wife we got affidavits

[vizcard]

Engineer,

This is a free forum and hence you have right to disagree/not like any/all of my comments. I fully respect that.
I would like to point out that may be you have taken my comment out of context. All I am saying is at I485 stage whether you have MS or you are direct employee etc etc may not seem to matter much. And may rightly so. Because there are earlier stages (PERM, I140) whether these factors carry weight(and rightly so IMO). At least I have not seen any co-relation between these factors and early approvals. If you have some data please point me to that. ( I would love to see these criteria being applicable to be low hanging fruit at I485 stage because that will make me one)

As for IT people getting GC- I think you know its pure demand supply. There is/was shortage of those skills here and that's why more people getting through that channel. And while every one should be against fraud of any kind in any system I think you are making few assumptions while criticizing IT Consultants (or at least sound like that). One of classic assumption seem to be like IT Consultants don't have MS. Let me tell you my friend in my team there are multiple consultants working and at least 50% of them have MS in US.

I am with you on this.
There are a set of criteria that need to be met at each stage. Appropriate educational and technical qualifications criteria are required in the I140 stage. I personally have a MS and MBA and work for a Big 4 management consulting firm and am perhaps 3-4 yrs away from making Partner in my Firm. I got my I-140 approved in 15 days - and it wasn't premium processing - because all that is relevant there.

In the 485 stage, the criteria are very different. Here it is more social criteria vs employment criteria. It fundamentally is "are you a threat to US population". Hence, all the background checks, health checks, BC checks. Qualifications don't (and shouldn't) mean anything at the 485 stage.

[eb2ODer]

CO strategically is slowly killing our hopes... He thought going through a phase of denial "April bulletin is still not out, IVR is in error", confusion "Is it really stalled? or is it a March VB date??!" and slow acceptance "PDF version shows the same COD, yet let me wait for the actual update on VB, Mumbai consulate webpages" - is better to avoid mass hysteria :confused: :p


no man since the voice recording is done and the pdf is done, I am pretty sure it's already gone out to all consulates around the world via cable. I can't comprehend why its not yet on the web page, really unpardonable.

[vizcard]

CO strategically is slowly killing our hopes... He thought going through a phase of denial "April bulletin is still not out, IVR is in error", confusion "Is it really stalled? or is it a March VB date??!" and slow acceptance "PDF version shows the same COD, yet let me wait for the actual update on VB, Mumbai consulate webpages" - is better to avoid mass hysteria :confused:

Seriously?
Folks - please step away from the ledge. We knew this was coming.

[eb2ODer]

Just wanted to post something lighter to break away from earlier posts... guess my joke was too flatline.


Seriously?
Folks - please step away from the ledge. We knew this was coming.

[qesehmk]

No harm eb2ODer. Generally speaking people here are quite tolerant and appreciative. I am sure nobody means to disrespect or disregard.
Just wanted to post something lighter to break away from earlier posts... guess my joke was too flatline.

[operas]

Some one sent me a PM , I am not sure how to reply a PM back and so this blog, may be it is useful to many others

I took MMR , FLU SHOT and TB Test

On the other hand , my wife being pregnant then did just her physicals none of the shots / tests above.

The doctor checked the waiver box in I693 for my wife and had a note which said pregnant blah blah...

In my case I have to take MMR again after 6 months and so he had marked Insufficient time interval.


Birth Certificates - My registration was done in the same month and year of birth but we didnot have a copy so had to request one , got one with the issued date of a recent date. , I didnot submit any affidavits.

For my wife we got affidavits


Thanks.. that was me.. :) 5 months to go.. and Im gonna be a dad.. Thanks for the information.

[eb2ODer]

Thanks Q! :)


No harm eb2ODer. Generally speaking people here are quite tolerant and appreciative. I am sure nobody means to disrespect or disregard.

[aGCHopefull]

Hello everyone,

I have quick questions about the affadvits required (from parents) to support the late registered BC

Do we need to have those affadavits on stamp paper or can it be done on a legal paper (the green one in India)?

Do we need 2 affadavits one from father and other from mother?

In either case it has to be notarized, right?

Please advise.

Thanks,

[vgraj1]

Spec thanks for your great presentation. When you present something everyone is literally a spectator !
Good to note that we are now reaching the 50% approval figure for Nov filers and 35% for Dec filers. At this rate surely 20K SOFAD may well be allocated by the end of March and we can expect 35K for the year. This is based on 10K consumption for the preadjudicated cases and 10K for the new filings. SOFAD this year would definitely come close to 35K if USCIS is not stepping ahead of the quarterly allocation. I agree with the 80% Trackitt threshold 20% people do not historically update their profiles. On Trackitt the number of EB2-I cases is probably far higher than expected and due to the great excitement on the date movement.
A lot of Nov filers waiting now are actually those with RFE's. Atleast 25% people seem to be getting RFE's. Most of the older people waiting are from TSC literally some people have not seen any updates on their cases. If I see around my own receipt number before and after there are few cases that are approved either cases are untouched or there is a RFE. People will be ok as long as everyone can get approved and the numbers itself don't run out.
I would bet that by Sep 2012 everyone till 01-JAN-2009 will get GC in hand if 35K + SOFAD literally happens with demand destruction OR at 0.75.

Hi Teddy, If 35K SOFAD clears visa demand upto PD 01-JAN-2009 for EB2I in FY 2012, and we assume there is another 30K SOFAD in FY 2013, upto what PD for EB2I will this 30K suffice?

[vgraj1]

On a lighter side, President Obama is facing some issue regarding his birth certificate, please see the link below (hope it comes up):

http://blog.beliefnet.com/watchwomanonthewall/2012/03/az-sheriff-calls-for-probe-into-obama-birth-certificate.html?source=NEWSLETTER&nlsource=38&ppc=&utm_campaign=Prayer&utm_source=NL&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_term=gmail.com

[vishnu]

DoS visa bulletin for April now officially up on DoS site.
Gurus - why is China still at May 2010 when they've had FAR fewer EB2 apps than India and as per PERM etc, will likely continue to have far fewer EB2 apps.

[mesan123]

Hi,

You can take one single affidavit from both parents. and it has to be on stamp paper( can be 10rs stamp paper).
you can find more details about the format and rest of the details in birth certficate link below.


http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?163-Birth-Certificate-Related


Hello everyone,

I have quick questions about the affadvits required (from parents) to support the late registered BC

Do we need to have those affadavits on stamp paper or can it be done on a legal paper (the green one in India)?

Do we need 2 affadavits one from father and other from mother?

In either case it has to be notarized, right?

Please advise.

Thanks,

[bee369]

Hi Guys,
I received my receipt notices on Friday and I observed that one letter ( first letter) in my last name was typed wrong.
My application was correct, I just checked the copy of application I sent to Attorney.
and also my wife's I765 contains wrong DOB.* Are these normal ? Should I call the customer service and make them correct ?
*
Can you please advise ?

[usernameisnotvalid]

I don't think this are normal. Ask your attorney or call customer service asap.



Hi Guys,
I received my receipt notices on Friday and I observed that one letter ( first letter) in my last name was typed wrong.
My application was correct, I just checked the copy of application I sent to Attorney.
and also my wife's I765 contains wrong DOB.* Are these normal ? Should I call the customer service and make them correct ?
*
Can you please advise ?

[Spectator]

DoS visa bulletin for April now officially up on DoS site.
Gurus - why is China still at May 2010 when they've had FAR fewer EB2 apps than India and as per PERM etc, will likely continue to have far fewer EB2 apps.When spillover visas are being given under INA Section 202(a)(5), the Cut Off Dates must move together, since the visas are allocated purely on the basis of the earliest Priority Date.

Since EB2-I has more than EB2-C, they will receive more.

While the initial Preference numbers (2,803 each) are being used, the dates can move at a different pace.

CO explained it in the May 2011 VB (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5424.html).

[vishnu]

appreciate the response Spec!

[just_curious]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

Interestingly they also have "May 2012 (Coming soon)". Is it something new/update happening at their IT systems? I haven't noticed this before...

[skpanda]

they just mess it up sometimes.... it should be -

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: April 2012

This month's visa bulletin: March 2012

Archived visa bulletins: February 2012 and before





http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

Interestingly they also have "May 2012 (Coming soon)". Is it something new/update happening at their IT systems? I haven't noticed this before...

[harapatta]

looks like its been corrected ..

[aGCHopefull]

they just mess it up sometimes.... it should be -

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: April 2012

This month's visa bulletin: March 2012

Archived visa bulletins: February 2012 and before

They heard you saying aloud :)

[tackle]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

Interestingly they also have "May 2012 (Coming soon)". Is it something new/update happening at their IT systems? I haven't noticed this before...

I glanced through the bulletin and it looks like there is no explanation as to why there was no movement even though the demand is so low. Typical!

[aGCHopefull]

Hi,

You can take one single affidavit from both parents. and it has to be on stamp paper( can be 10rs stamp paper).
you can find more details about the format and rest of the details in birth certficate link below.


http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?163-Birth-Certificate-Related

Thanks mesan123.

[just_curious]

They heard you saying aloud :)

Guessing.. they are following this forum as much as we..

[nishant2200]

Back to Predictions Calculations.

Summary of forum agreeing to so far in general.

April VB stalls, true to CO's trend timeline prediction. This might be followed by retrogression later on, and I think GC issuance should be clearing 2008 and FY 2013 should begin around Jan 1st 2009. Some February filers may also get lucky pretty soon if retrogression is not forthcoming soon. 35K SOFAD, with higher DD than we initially expected, as well as higher SO.

Based on the NVC fee notices, which have gone into 2011, I do feel that in FY 2013, CO will whence artificially move again, and get into this territory. So folks who could not get current in April VB and so on, for this FY 2012, should not get disappointed. This FY we have seen that NVC fee notices are given a lot of importance by DOS to hold true to them. Until whatever date NVC notice has gone out this year, next FY, those dates may get current, very high chance.

ps: I have moved some recent posts which had potential of being contentious and diverting from thread to General Immigration Discussion thread at
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?52-General-Immigration-Discussion&highlight=general+immigration

[H1GC140]

I am greened.

Nishant, You are right, 3rd week of March. Got CPO mail for both me and my wife just 5 mins before.

I am always thankful to Nishant, Q, Teddy, V and others on this forum.

Thank you,
SK

NSC
RD-12/27/11
ND-12/29/11
FP-2/10/12
EAD-2/8/11
I-485-3/12/12


Back to Predictions Calculations.

Summary of forum agreeing to so far in general.

April VB stalls, true to CO's trend timeline prediction. This might be followed by retrogression later on, and I think GC issuance should be clearing 2008 and FY 2013 should begin around Jan 1st 2009. Some February filers may also get lucky pretty soon if retrogression is not forthcoming soon. 35K SOFAD, with higher DD than we initially expected, as well as higher SO.

Based on the NVC fee notices, which have gone into 2011, I do feel that in FY 2013, CO will whence artificially move again, and get into this territory. So folks who could not get current in April VB and so on, for this FY 2012, should not get disappointed. This FY we have seen that NVC fee notices are given a lot of importance by DOS to hold true to them. Until whatever date NVC notice has gone out this year, next FY, those dates may get current, very high chance.

ps: I have moved some recent posts which had potential of being contentious and diverting from thread to General Immigration Discussion thread at
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?52-General-Immigration-Discussion&highlight=general+immigration

[narendarrao]

Trackitt Users PD122008,Shydud,DEC1108,GC200812 with PD in DEC,2008 got approved. Lucky guys.
I don't understand in what order they are approving these cases but we should not be surprised to see someone with PD in 2009 receiving approval in FY 2012.

[eb2visa]

I heared a news from my employer that there are less number of PERMS filed in 2011 due to wage certification issues. There was a case on wage certifications, with that there were very less number of PERMS filed in 2011. If the dates starts moving it should move very fast.

Thought it would be helpful for 2011 filers.

Mine is 2009

[eb2visa]

Just googled and got the below link:

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_dolpwd.html

http://totallyexpat.com/global-immigration-news/united-states-labor-certification-cases-delayed-dols-suspension-prevailing-wage-processing/


I heared a news from my employer that there are less number of PERMS filed in 2011 due to wage certification issues. There was a case on wage certifications, with that there were very less number of PERMS filed in 2011. If the dates starts moving it should move very fast.

Thought it would be helpful for 2011 filers.

Mine is 2009

[Desperate8]

Q / Teddy / Nishant / Veni /Spec / Viz /Soggadu and all gurus of peace and harmony shower your input -

My curiosity has no limits , I called L1 officer they said my case status is- "Card/document " in production same as you see in the website, well now
the curiosity took next level spoke to L2 officer and got disappointed when the lady told me that my 485 is still pending , she said I can use EAD for jobs ,she also said that it would take 4 - 6 months which would be sometime between mothers and fathers day (exact words what she told me) - I was like what 485 PENDING ??????

Sorry folks , but what is going on with my case .IS it that their systems are outdated.
Are L2 officers Adjudicatory officers ?
Will my call to this L2 officer delay the process ?

Got SMS on card production twice on March 9 , which is this friday.

Sorry 8 years and now 8 days I couldn't wait, hope you all understand and give your experiences or anything you have known from past.

Help!!!

[veni001]

Q / Teddy / Nishant / Veni /Spec / Viz /Soggadu and all gurus of peace and harmony shower your input -

My curiosity has no limits , I called L1 officer they said my case status is- "Card/document " in production same as you see in the website, well now
the curiosity took next level spoke to L2 officer and got disappointed when the lady told me that my 485 is still pending , she said I can use EAD for jobs ,she also said that it would take 4 - 6 months which would be sometime between mothers and fathers day (exact words what she told me) - I was like what 485 PENDING ??????

Sorry folks , but what is going on with my case .IS it that their systems are outdated.
Are L2 officers Adjudicatory officers ?
Will my call to this L2 officer delay the process ?

Got SMS on card production twice on March 9 , which is this friday.

Sorry 8 years and now 8 days I couldn't wait, hope you all understand and give your experiences or anything you have known from past.

Help!!!

Desperate8,
I know you are very "desperate" to see your physical cad, but not sure why you called USCIS? I hope L2 office did not punch the correct receipt number.

Either way you should be receiving Welcome notice and Card/Document production letter(s) in the mail by this weekend, unless your on-line case status changes to something else.

[mesan123]

Not to make you more tensed...there was one more person in Trackkitt( user id : xlxoel ) who mentioned the same problem.......

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/923143377/cpo-e-mail-twice-same-day-need-to-be-worried

just sharing the information .....

GURUS and people who already got there GC's can answer you better on this ....






Q / Teddy / Nishant / Veni /Spec / Viz /Soggadu and all gurus of peace and harmony shower your input -

My curiosity has no limits , I called L1 officer they said my case status is- "Card/document " in production same as you see in the website, well now
the curiosity took next level spoke to L2 officer and got disappointed when the lady told me that my 485 is still pending , she said I can use EAD for jobs ,she also said that it would take 4 - 6 months which would be sometime between mothers and fathers day (exact words what she told me) - I was like what 485 PENDING ??????

Sorry folks , but what is going on with my case .IS it that their systems are outdated.
Are L2 officers Adjudicatory officers ?
Will my call to this L2 officer delay the process ?

Got SMS on card production twice on March 9 , which is this friday.

Sorry 8 years and now 8 days I couldn't wait, hope you all understand and give your experiences or anything you have known from past.

Help!!!

[nishant2200]

Don't worry. It takes time for various databases to update, as well as CPO and Decision are in fact discrete processes. You are done. I have seen a gap of upto 4 days between CPO and Decision at times.

My lawyer had called USCIS for status after I had informed him of my CPO, and he had replied back to me saying: USCIS is in the process of approving your green card, I have confirmed that. Note that he did not say your green card is approved. he does have his own liaison at the immigration offices and does not go through the typical customer service we use.

CPO means it's over, you will get your GC.

Typical cycle is: CPO (card ordered), CPO (duplicate), Decision, CPO (this one says card has been mailed and will get in 30 days), Decision, CPO (USPS Picked up), CPO (USPS Delivered).



Q / Teddy / Nishant / Veni /Spec / Viz /Soggadu and all gurus of peace and harmony shower your input -

My curiosity has no limits , I called L1 officer they said my case status is- "Card/document " in production same as you see in the website, well now
the curiosity took next level spoke to L2 officer and got disappointed when the lady told me that my 485 is still pending , she said I can use EAD for jobs ,she also said that it would take 4 - 6 months which would be sometime between mothers and fathers day (exact words what she told me) - I was like what 485 PENDING ??????

Sorry folks , but what is going on with my case .IS it that their systems are outdated.
Are L2 officers Adjudicatory officers ?
Will my call to this L2 officer delay the process ?

Got SMS on card production twice on March 9 , which is this friday.

Sorry 8 years and now 8 days I couldn't wait, hope you all understand and give your experiences or anything you have known from past.

Help!!!

[Desperate8]

Veni - Yes you are right I was desperate - I hope my call doesnot do anything bad :( (I am always optimistic but when it comes to me never : )

Nishant - Thank you for your explaination - I now have to confidence in me.

Others - Thank you , no words to say how mindful you guys are while explaining.

God bless you all!!!!

[shaumack]

Q / Teddy / Nishant / Veni /Spec / Viz /Soggadu and all gurus of peace and harmony shower your input -

My curiosity has no limits , I called L1 officer they said my case status is- "Card/document " in production same as you see in the website, well now
the curiosity took next level spoke to L2 officer and got disappointed when the lady told me that my 485 is still pending , she said I can use EAD for jobs ,she also said that it would take 4 - 6 months which would be sometime between mothers and fathers day (exact words what she told me) - I was like what 485 PENDING ??????

--------------------------------------------------

Help!!!

Here is the deal. When case is approved, you will get approval email and SMS because as soon as Immigration Officer approves the case, your file is sent back to the staging officer, who will update Webmaster (uscis.webmaster@dhs.gov) who in turn will update the CRIS. Staging officer will later once Card production is done or so ordered at some point will update the internal system. L2 Officers system is one of the last that are updated (counter intuitive). You can search forums and there are number of cases where it is apparent that L2 Officer's system is updated 2-3 days after such emails. So it is also advisable to call L2 Officer only after 2-3 days to get tracking number. Anything before that means you will hear update on the case status system is not true and your case is still pending, which is totally false.

[girishgkulkarni]

I got the I 485 Approval on Saturday...

PD 23 Jan 2008 India EB2
Perm was approved in Dec 2010 after being Denied twice and Appealed twice.
I 140 was approved in Jan 2011

Thanks to All you guys for the predictions etc etc.

God Bless u all...

Girish

[TeddyKoochu]

I am greened.

Nishant, You are right, 3rd week of March. Got CPO mail for both me and my wife just 5 mins before.

I am always thankful to Nishant, Q, Teddy, V and others on this forum.

Thank you,
SK

NSC
RD-12/27/11
ND-12/29/11
FP-2/10/12
EAD-2/8/11
I-485-3/12/12


I got the I 485 Approval on Saturday...

PD 23 Jan 2008 India EB2
Perm was approved in Dec 2010 after being Denied twice and Appealed twice.
I 140 was approved in Jan 2011

Thanks to All you guys for the predictions etc etc.

God Bless u all...

Girish

Many Congratulations to you and your families. Enjoy green life.

[Desperate8]

Many Congratulations to you and your families. Enjoy green life.

All the best to all of you , hope you enjoy the greenery of life.

[bee369]

I don't think this are normal. Ask your attorney or call customer service asap.

Thanks, my wife and I called USCIS and opened SR to correct those typos, do u think this SR may delay FP notice ?

And also GURUs I need an advise, I put my case on this forum before my PD is current but now it's current and I filed 485 on Mar 1st let me iterate.

My PD is Apr 2010 and I live in IL and work in IL too, now our team moving to NY head quarters but same role and same team etc, only location change, when our HR and Attorney discussed about move they r confident that I won't get GC within 180 days and they said I can move to NY now and they can apply AC121 after 180 days. Only issue will be if I get GC withi 180 days then I need to relocate back to IL office but they r saying it is very unlikely that my 485 will be approved in 180 days. What do u guys think ?
My PD is Apr 20 2010 and EB2-I.

If no problem with move, should I wait until FP is done and then move, I am little afraid to move before FP and EAD/AP. are approved. Original plan is to move by Mar end but I am thinking to postpone until Apr end thinking FP and EAD /AP will be done.

Not sure my company moves me back to IL location if my 485 approved in 180 days, what will happen if they don't? I asked them to no to move 180 days from Mar 1st but they r saying why I worry about unlikely situation that I get gC in 180 days, plz advise

[gc2008]

Hello Gurus,
I am just curious to know if anybody else got below posted kind of RFE. Is it a serious RFE? Original poster (from Trackitt) mentioned that job titles are different between PERM and current (H1B) yet job duities are almost same but on different databases.

Hi All,
Got an RFE on March 06th received physical mail in the evening. Still my online case status is in initial review.
Applied 485 from Desi company.

Uscis requested the below evidence. To Submit a letter of employment attesting to your
offer of proposed employment.This letter should be written on the company's offical
letterhead and cite the date you will begin working, whether the position is
permanent and full-time, a description of the position, a description of
the position that you currently hold for the company, and the offered salary.

My Position in perm labor is different from my current role.
Applied H1-b extension in Nov 2011 and got approval in Jan 2012. Position,Roles in LCA and
Perm labor are different.will it be a problem. My attorney sent sample letter matching the roles,
but different designations.Also included after Upon receipt of permanent residency,
he will be working as perm Labour position.

Can anyone let me know does it causes any problem for the RFE response.

[vizcard]

Thanks, my wife and I called USCIS and opened SR to correct those typos, do u think this SR may delay FP notice ?

And also GURUs I need an advise, I put my case on this forum before my PD is current but now it's current and I filed 485 on Mar 1st let me iterate.

My PD is Apr 2010 and I live in IL and work in IL too, now our team moving to NY head quarters but same role and same team etc, only location change, when our HR and Attorney discussed about move they r confident that I won't get GC within 180 days and they said I can move to NY now and they can apply AC121 after 180 days. Only issue will be if I get GC withi 180 days then I need to relocate back to IL office but they r saying it is very unlikely that my 485 will be approved in 180 days. What do u guys think ?
My PD is Apr 20 2010 and EB2-I.

If no problem with move, should I wait until FP is done and then move, I am little afraid to move before FP and EAD/AP. are approved. Original plan is to move by Mar end but I am thinking to postpone until Apr end thinking FP and EAD /AP will be done.

Not sure my company moves me back to IL location if my 485 approved in 180 days, what will happen if they don't? I asked them to no to move 180 days from Mar 1st but they r saying why I worry about unlikely situation that I get gC in 180 days, plz advise

It is probably true that getting a GC in 180 will be tough unless there's wholesale RfEs for the 2008 and 2009 cases. That's very unlikely and then there's the retrogression factor. I would definitely wait until after FP and EAD in hand.

If I understand your situation correctly, are they suggesting you physically move to NY but as an IL employee and then file the AC21 after 180 days for change in location? Technically a change in location requires a new labor and I140 but I don't know if this is true even after the 485 application. My guess is yes - in case of a RfE on your case.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hello Gurus,
I am just curious to know if anybody else got below posted kind of RFE. Is it a serious RFE? Original poster (from Trackitt) mentioned that job titles are different between PERM and current (H1B) yet job duities are almost same but on different databases.

Hi All,
Got an RFE on March 06th received physical mail in the evening. Still my online case status is in initial review.
Applied 485 from Desi company.

Uscis requested the below evidence. To Submit a letter of employment attesting to your
offer of proposed employment.This letter should be written on the company's offical
letterhead and cite the date you will begin working, whether the position is
permanent and full-time, a description of the position, a description of
the position that you currently hold for the company, and the offered salary.

My Position in perm labor is different from my current role.
Applied H1-b extension in Nov 2011 and got approval in Jan 2012. Position,Roles in LCA and
Perm labor are different.will it be a problem. My attorney sent sample letter matching the roles,
but different designations.Also included after Upon receipt of permanent residency,
he will be working as perm Labour position.

Can anyone let me know does it causes any problem for the RFE response.


This is the standard template for RFE for employment verification letter. Normally you would get if it a new one is not sent as part of the I485 application because the labor and 140 are years old, EVL is part of the mandatory list of documents for 485 filing. If your current and future job responsibilities are similar (Same field like IT, finance) or there has been career progression there is no issue. I got the same RFE because attorney did not send EVL as part of 485 filing.

[reachme_s]

I got the I 485 Approval on Saturday...

PD 23 Jan 2008 India EB2
Perm was approved in Dec 2010 after being Denied twice and Appealed twice.
I 140 was approved in Jan 2011

Thanks to All you guys for the predictions etc etc.

God Bless u all...

Girish

Congratulations Girish!!

[neospeed]

Veni - Yes you are right I was desperate - I hope my call doesnot do anything bad :( (I am always optimistic but when it comes to me never : )

Nishant - Thank you for your explaination - I now have to confidence in me.

Others - Thank you , no words to say how mindful you guys are while explaining.

God bless you all!!!!

I had similar issue before. I got a fake update saying card production ordered in the first week Nov. I called customer serverice after reaching level 2 they told me my spouse address is wrong, all the mails are going to old address and some one returned it. They told me when something like that happen it triggers the CPO email, which is odd.

Mine atlast got approved in the last week of nov after updating my spouse address. Double check your address if you moved recently.

[bee369]

It is probably true that getting a GC in 180 will be tough unless there's wholesale RfEs for the 2008 and 2009 cases. That's very unlikely and then there's the retrogression factor. I would definitely wait until after FP and EAD in hand.

If I understand your situation correctly, are they suggesting you physically move to NY but as an IL employee and then file the AC21 after 180 days for change in location? Technically a change in location requires a new labor and I140 but I don't know if this is true even after the 485 application. My guess is yes - in case of a RfE on your case.

They r moving me as NY employee but same team

[nishant2200]

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=1efbac8ec3d2f210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=a39e901bf9873210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Good article to read on USCIS website, apart from AC21 and porting, a very specific para is:

Q5. Can I accept a different position or receive a promotion from my employer and remain eligible to adjust my status to permanent residence?
A5. USCIS will evaluate these situations on a case-by-case basis. The job duties for each position, the SOC codes for each position, and any differences in the wages will be the determining factors as to whether you remain eligible. Regardless of whether the new job is considered a demotion, a lateral move or a promotion within the company for which the beneficiary is employed, the job duties must be sufficiently similar. USCIS officers will view the totality of the circumstances in light of the congressional intent, expressed in INA section 204(j), as enacted by 106(c) of AC21, to facilitate job mobility within the same or similar occupational classification for qualifying aliens with long-pending adjustment applications.


main thread at: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?693-Job-Promotion-and-effect-on-I-485-PD

-----
ps: credit to ponty2012 on trackitt for finding this information.

[MeraNoAayega]

Service Center: TSC

485 Approved Date: Mar 13, 2012

765/131 Approved Date: Jan 05, 2012

FP Appointment Date: Dec 14, 2011
FP Notice Date: Nov 17, 2011

485/765/131 Notice Date: Nov 7, 2011
485/765/131 Receipt Date:Nov 3, 2011
485/765/131 Mailed Date: Nov 2, 2011

Above details are same for both primary and dependent. Good luck !!

[vizcard]

They r moving me as NY employee but same team

That's tricky and in my opinion risky. In the eyes of the USCIS, the premise of your application is a Company A at location A for job A. If any of those change, its a red flag for them. It might be easier to be an IL employee who works in NY vs being a NY employee working in NY. Are you in consulting or an industry job ? What I said is more relevant for an industry job. I would talk to an independent immigration lawyer.

For what its worth, my law firm (fragomen) has told me that if I wanted to move to a different office in my Firm, it would be a do-over.

[Desperate8]

I had similar issue before. I got a fake update saying card production ordered in the first week Nov. I called customer serverice after reaching level 2 they told me my spouse address is wrong, all the mails are going to old address and some one returned it. They told me when something like that happen it triggers the CPO email, which is odd.

Mine atlast got approved in the last week of nov after updating my spouse address. Double check your address if you moved recently.

Got Card mailed email today - I shouldbe getting "My Precious" in a couple of days I guess.

Yes address was verified and was correct.

[mesan123]

So this should ease your tensions....ENJOY the day


Got Card mailed email today - I shouldbe getting "My Precious" in a couple of days I guess.

Yes address was verified and was correct.

[qesehmk]

If there further interest ..... this discussion is moved at
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?110-Arguments-Fights-Disagreements-Trolls-and-Everything-That-You-Don-t-Want-To-Read

Please do not post replies on this topic in this thread.


With due respect, I clearly said that I am not against IT at all. But against people who misuse the system. If indeed is so hot then why the universities/colleges still have other disciplines? If all colleges teach so called hot IT, then question of swiching career is not there?.

I guess we are missing the main point - misuse of the system. This is I am mad at and any one should be.

Why to increase the immigratiion intake? It is high anyway? But instead - the qualifying bench mark should be set high, if we want USA to be the first world.

We very well know who finances children's education in India and from where so called EVVCL guys get their GC financing?

[bee369]

That's tricky and in my opinion risky. In the eyes of the USCIS, the premise of your application is a Company A at location A for job A. If any of those change, its a red flag for them. It might be easier to be an IL employee who works in NY vs being a NY employee working in NY. Are you in consulting or an industry job ? What I said is more relevant for an industry job. I would talk to an independent immigration lawyer.

For what its worth, my law firm (fragomen) has told me that if I wanted to move to a different office in my Firm, it would be a do-over.

My understanding and what our law firm told is that GC can be for future position and in my EV letter they mentioned that they r applying 485 for my IL and also they did mention that I will be working for PERM location and role after approval and if it takes more than 180 days for approval we can apply AC21 and put new location right ? I am just concerned about any chance that I can get GC within 180 days, if so hopefully they will move me back to IL but just in case if they dont, just wondering what will happen.

[qesehmk]

I agree with Vizcard ..... but I don't see what he says vs you say in conflict. they are both true.

My firm was fragomen and tehy also said that moving to another location will be do-over. My strong suspicion is that the law firms are paid by corporations and they will say things that are in the interest of the client. Is it exactly how law expects it to be? I don't know.

But I will tell you this -if your employer (i..e your boss) is behind you 100% and is not concerned about losing you or losing his position after your GC, then what you say below is a perfect scenario and everything can be managed. All it takes is for your company to say yes you will work in IL after 485, for you to get GC. They may or may not say that based on other considerations that may not necessarily tied to the legality of the situation at hand.


My understanding and what our law firm told is that GC can be for future position and in my EV letter they mentioned that they r applying 485 for my IL and also they did mention that I will be working for PERM location and role after approval and if it takes more than 180 days for approval we can apply AC21 and put new location right ? I am just concerned about any chance that I can get GC within 180 days, if so hopefully they will move me back to IL but just in case if they dont, just wondering what will happen.

[bee369]

I agree with Vizcard ..... but I don't see what he says vs you say in conflict. they are both true.

My firm was fragomen and tehy also said that moving to another location will be do-over. My strong suspicion is that the law firms are paid by corporations and they will say things that are in the interest of the client. Is it exactly how law expects it to be? I don't know.

But I will tell you this -if your employer (i..e your boss) is behind you 100% and is not concerned about losing you or losing his position after your GC, then what you say below is a perfect scenario and everything can be managed. All it takes is for your company to say yes you will work in IL after 485, for you to get GC. They may or may not say that based on other considerations that may not necessarily tied to the legality of the situation at hand.
Ok thanks Q and Vizcard

[veni001]

I am greened.

Nishant, You are right, 3rd week of March. Got CPO mail for both me and my wife just 5 mins before.

I am always thankful to Nishant, Q, Teddy, V and others on this forum.

Thank you,
SK

NSC
RD-12/27/11
ND-12/29/11
FP-2/10/12
EAD-2/8/11
I-485-3/12/12


I got the I 485 Approval on Saturday...

PD 23 Jan 2008 India EB2
Perm was approved in Dec 2010 after being Denied twice and Appealed twice.
I 140 was approved in Jan 2011

Thanks to All you guys for the predictions etc etc.

God Bless u all...

Girish


Service Center: TSC

485 Approved Date: Mar 13, 2012

765/131 Approved Date: Jan 05, 2012

FP Appointment Date: Dec 14, 2011
FP Notice Date: Nov 17, 2011

485/765/131 Notice Date: Nov 7, 2011
485/765/131 Receipt Date:Nov 3, 2011
485/765/131 Mailed Date: Nov 2, 2011

Above details are same for both primary and dependent. Good luck !!


Congratulations to H1GC140; girishgkulkarni and MeraNoAayega.

[luckycub]

Hi - a quick question - is it ok to change the address with USCIS a few days prior to moving?

[gc4a_k]

is it a new construction or an existing one. for new construction you will have to wait till closing as address is updated in USPS database only after closing and even that takes up to a week.

for exisiting home/apartment you can go ahead and change the address. make sure your new home/apt has your name in the mail box.

[luckycub]

is it a new construction or an existing one. for new construction you will have to wait till closing as address is updated in USPS database only after closing and even that takes up to a week.

for exisiting home/apartment you can go ahead and change the address. make sure your new home/apt has your name in the mail box.
It is an existing apartment - lease starts Mar-26th. Have heard that it takes USCIS 7 days to update the address in their system and my situation is that I may have to reschedule my FP appointment date with my new address since my FP date is on 3-30 (earlier walk-in was denied) in the current state. Thank you.

[gc4a_k]

It is an existing apartment - lease starts Mar-26th. Have heard that it takes USCIS 7 days to update the address in their system and my situation is that I may have to reschedule my FP appointment date with my new address since my FP date is on 3-30 (earlier walk-in was denied) in the current state. Thank you.

Yes it takes them 7 days to update. in my case, when i went for my FP appt, the address shown in the screen was the old one even though i got mail from USCIS that my address has been changed. the lady in ASC told me that they cannnot change the address over there. i went ahead and got my FP done. still waiting for my EAD/AP approval.

[YTeleven]

USCIS FY2011 Highlights Report shows improved performance since 2009 :
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/About%20Us/Budget%2C%20Planning%20and%20Performance/USCIS%20Fiscal%20Year%202011%20Highlights%20Report .pdf

[luckycub]

Yes it takes them 7 days to update. in my case, when i went for my FP appt, the address shown in the screen was the old one even though i got mail from USCIS that my address has been changed. the lady in ASC told me that they cannnot change the address over there. i went ahead and got my FP done. still waiting for my EAD/AP approval.

Thank you. Was yours done in the same ASC or different? Did you reschedule your FP appt?

[gc4a_k]

went to elizabeth, nj asc and i didnot reschedule. now that i think about it, i probably should have. this way all the depts would have the same address and probably would be easier (no confusion) to handle the case.

[gc4a_k]

went to elizabeth, nj asc and i didnot reschedule. now that i think about it, i probably should have. this way all the depts would have the same address and probably would be easier (no confusion) to handle the case.

FYI, my FP was done on March 2nd.

[avi_july2010]

Hi all,

I have been checking out this forum from past couple of months and learned so much...People in here have terrific knowledge and theories. Admins are doing excellent job. Please keep up the good work..

I was looking through I-485 approvals in the tracker and observed some approvals for EB2 I&C with priority dates in the last quarter of 2008, most promising one being of 12/30/2008. While it by no means indicates that all petitions before the said date have been approved, but its indeed a good sign that USCIS is approving some cases with priority dates in the last quarter of 2008. Does anybody know when the spillover kicks in? Is it every quarter or in the last two quarters?

[YTeleven]

Hi all,

I have been checking out this forum from past couple of months and learned so much...People in here have terrific knowledge and theories. Admins are doing excellent job. Please keep up the good work..

I was looking through I-485 approvals in the tracker and observed some approvals for EB2 I&C with priority dates in the last quarter of 2008, most promising one being of 12/30/2008. While it by no means indicates that all petitions before the said date have been approved, but its indeed a good sign that USCIS is approving some cases with priority dates in the last quarter of 2008. Does anybody know when the spillover kicks in? Is it every quarter or in the last two quarters?

My understanding is that, from this year onwards they are doing it on Quaterly basis. Since we are in the middle of the FY2012, you can expect that they might have already allocated 50-60% of visas based on the quaterly spillover rules.

[tatikonda]

Is there a report on Visa Numbers used so far by DOS ?
Last I heard CO saying in January 2012, that they reached 39% not sure how much they reached now and is there any possible movement in May Visa Bulletin.

Please share your thoughts !!

[Desperate8]

So this should ease your tensions....ENJOY the day

Absolutely - All relaxed , but will strive my best to help our community with more answers.

Summary / Lessons -

L1 / L2 officers don't have right set of Information maybe within 1-2 days of your updates. So please RESIST calling them.

[eb2visa]

2011 USCIS Highlights

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/About%20Us/Budget%2C%20Planning%20and%20Performance/USCIS%20Fiscal%20Year%202011%20Highlights%20Report .pdf

[veni001]

Hi all,

I have been checking out this forum from past couple of months and learned so much...People in here have terrific knowledge and theories. Admins are doing excellent job. Please keep up the good work..

I was looking through I-485 approvals in the tracker and observed some approvals for EB2 I&C with priority dates in the last quarter of 2008, most promising one being of 12/30/2008. While it by no means indicates that all petitions before the said date have been approved, but its indeed a good sign that USCIS is approving some cases with priority dates in the last quarter of 2008. Does anybody know when the spillover kicks in? Is it every quarter or in the last two quarters?


My understanding is that, from this year onwards they are doing it on Quaterly basis. Since we are in the middle of the FY2012, you can expect that they might have already allocated 50-60% of visas based on the quaterly spillover rules.

First of all, welcome to both of you.

In my opinion USCIS can do QSP only when EB1 and ER2ROW demand is less than the allowed numbers in a particular quarter.

Please note that the demand can vary widely from one quarter to the next, depending on USCIS processing speed.

[sujan_vatrapu]

I want to know how USCIS is able to approve so may EB2I 485s lately. I was following trackiit thread of jan eb2i filers and they are reporting a relatively busy weekend. I am saying realtively coz it might be normal during the last quarter of a FY but from my experience its unprecendented during other quarters. It can be attirbuted to one of the two things (1) More and more recent EB2I filers are adding/updateing their cases on trackitt (2) USCIS is doing QSP. For (2), I was of the assumption that QSP happens after the quarter ends (which in this case wud be April). I guess I am wrong. Gurus, is there any better explanation on the recent trend? Also trackitt SS of jan filers indicate that 9% got their GCs.

[Spectator]

I want to know how USCIS is able to approve so may EB2I 485s lately. I was following trackiit thread of jan eb2i filers and they are reporting a relatively busy weekend. I am saying realtively coz it might be normal during the last quarter of a FY but from my experience its unprecendented during other quarters. It can be attirbuted to one of the two things (1) More and more recent EB2I filers are adding/updateing their cases on trackitt (2) USCIS is doing QSP. For (2), I was of the assumption that QSP happens after the quarter ends (which in this case wud be April). I guess I am wrong. Gurus, is there any better explanation on the recent trend? Also trackitt SS of jan filers indicate that 9% got their GCs.sujan_vatrapu,

The % of people adding their EB2-I case to Trackitt appears to have doubled compared to the pre July backlog cases.

DOS appear to be using QSP based on estimated amounts, rather than waiting to see the exact numbers available.

I agree the numbers have been even higher in Q2 than they were in Q1. In fact, I suspect very few visas remain in Q2 against the 54% limit for the first half of the year. As a result, I expect the approval rate to slow until April begins and a new quarter's worth of spillover becomes available.

As for January filers, based on Trackitt data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012), about 4% have received approvals to date. In fact, the number is probably nearer 2.5%, since not all January filers have yet added their case to Trackitt who will do so.

[sujan_vatrapu]

sujan_vatrapu,

The % of people adding their EB2-I case to Trackitt appears to have doubled compared to the pre July backlog cases.

DOS appear to be using QSP based on estimated amounts, rather than waiting to see the exact numbers available.

I agree the numbers have been even higher in Q2 than they were in Q1. In fact, I suspect very few visas remain in Q2 against the 54% limit for the first half of the year. As a result, I expect the approval rate to slow until April begins and a new quarter's worth of spillover becomes available.

As for January filers, based on Trackitt data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012), about 4% have received approvals to date. In fact, the number is probably nearer 2.5%, since not all January filers have yet added their case to Trackitt who will do so.

Whats your guess on what PD we will end up with at the end of this FY? Sounds unbelievable but some people from Dec, 2008 are getting GCs (desperate8 and some other trackitters). Is this a scenario where IOs know that by this FY dates will be around that ballpark and approving cases that are straight forward or is it deja vu 2008 where they approved cases randomly and the dates retrogressed?

[vizcard]

based on recent approvals, I'm doing to speculate that dates will retrogress to Mar 2008 at the very latest (i.e. Dec filers). The reason, I feel, is to some semblance of order in PD approvals. Right now its a free for all. Anyone who is current can be approved. I don't have the stats but I'm pretty sure not every 2007 PD is adjudicated (approved or denied). I will also posit that approvals will die down in this quarter and pick back up in Q4 when CO gets a real sense of what his SOFAD is going to be.

It'll be amazing to know how many "real" EB GCs have been given out. We keep hearing 50-60% but I would like a real number.

[Spectator]

based on recent approvals, I'm doing to speculate that dates will retrogress to Mar 2008 at the very latest (i.e. Dec filers). The reason, I feel, is to some semblance of order in PD approvals. Right now its a free for all. Anyone who is current can be approved.vizcard,

I think it will be a little later than that, although in 2008, to give some breathing room.


I don't have the stats but I'm pretty sure not every 2007 PD is adjudicated (approved or denied).
According to my data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012), a little over 50% of pre 2008 cases remain unapproved.


I will also posit that approvals will die down in this quarter and pick back up in Q4 when CO gets a real sense of what his SOFAD is going to be.
Remember, we are still in Q2. I think approvals will continue apace when Q3 begins in April, to the extent that QSP allows. If USCIS continue at the pace they set in February, retrogression would be necessary before the end of Q3 (probably in the June VB).


It'll be amazing to know how many "real" EB GCs have been given out. We keep hearing 50-60% but I would like a real number.
If CO sticks to the law, it can't be more than 54% by the end of March. I'm sure they will hit that mark. We'll have a better idea when USCIS publish the Q2 Individual Applications and Petitions (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) data. Unfortunately, that won't be available until May, judging by previous releases.

[sonu201]

Hi Guys,

Just found this old thread from trackitt that could explain order (disorder?) of adjudication by officers.

http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussion-forums/i485-eb/887840807/q-a-with-adjudicators-answers-on-uscis-application-process

If you are wondering that your case is not touched while others filed couple of months after are greened, these could be the reasons..

"boxes that are staged on the shelves are chosen at random by the officers"

"the officer could be hording a box at his desk (for some strange reason) and then goes on vacation"

After reading this I felt much better than refreshing trackitt every other minute..

[vizcard]

If CO sticks to the law, it can't be more than 54% by the end of March. I'm sure they will hit that mark. We'll have a better idea when USCIS publish the Q2 Individual Applications and Petitions data. Unfortunately, that won't be available until May, judging by previous releases.

I must admit, I didnt read this previously. Am I reading it correctly when I say that 31.5K EB (22.5%) were used up in Q1 (not including CPs) ?

[Spectator]

I must admit, I didnt read this previously. Am I reading it correctly when I say that 31.5K EB (22.5%) were used up in Q1 (not including CPs) ?vizcard,

That's correct.

[vizcard]

vizcard,

That's correct.

So the USCIS is giving out/ will give out almost 45K in Q2 assuming he sticks with the 54% mark. That is a bucket load of visas.

[Spectator]

So the USCIS is giving out/ will give out almost 45K in Q2 assuming he sticks with the 54% mark. That is a bucket load of visas.That number doesn't seem correct.

In Q1, USCIS approved 31.5k cases. Adding on a little over 15% CP cases brings the total to the 27% limit of 37.8k.

So it is likely that another 37.8k visas will be approved in Q2, of which USCIS will approve about 85%, or 32k.

[vizcard]

That number doesn't seem correct.

In Q1, USCIS approved 31.5k cases. Adding on a little over 15% CP cases brings the total to the 27% limit of 37.8k.

So it is likely that another 37.8k visas will be approved in Q2, of which USCIS will approve about 85%, or 32k.

I didn't take CP in to account for the Q1 number but doesn't 15% seem high considering overall they are about 10% (if that). Regardless, 32K in Q2 and possibly a similar number in Q3 is a nice number to work with for a continuous stream of approvals.

[GC-Utopic]

FYI,As per a leaked internal memo of USCIS, they are sneaking into your profiles,,,,

http://www.imminfo.com/Resources/CIS/Memo_Social_networking.pdf

Source :http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2012-03-15/social-networking-jam.html

[kolugc]

Very happy to post this, and wanted to thank each and everybody here for the information I could use from here in pursuing my journey...!!

Today morning 7:15 got the CPO email about my 485 approval.

Receipt Number: LIN12902402**
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

PD: 06/09/2008
RD:01/03/2012 (2 dependents same date)
ND:01/06/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP Notice: 02/01/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP App: 02/15/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP ND: 02/10/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP RD: 02/16/2012 (2 dependents same date)
485 CPO mail: 03/15/2012 (2 dependents same date) - Card Production

Wish you all good luck..!!!

[nishant2200]

FYI,As per a leaked internal memo of USCIS, they are sneaking into your profiles,,,,

http://www.imminfo.com/Resources/CIS/Memo_Social_networking.pdf

Source :http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2012-03-15/social-networking-jam.html

good read, thanks for sharing.

[pdfeb09]

Very happy to post this, and wanted to thank each and everybody here for the information I could use from here in pursuing my journey...!!

Today morning 7:15 got the CPO email about my 485 approval.

Receipt Number: LIN12902402**
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

PD: 06/09/2008
RD:01/03/2012 (2 dependents same date)
ND:01/06/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP Notice: 02/01/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP App: 02/15/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP ND: 02/10/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP RD: 02/16/2012 (2 dependents same date)
485 CPO mail: 03/15/2012 (2 dependents same date) - Card Production

Wish you all good luck..!!!

Congratulations .. Enjoy !!

[natvyas]

Just saw on trackkit that Teddy got approved. I think its OUR Teddy.

Cheers man !!! Enjoy

[Spectator]

Teddy,

I have just returned, looked at Trackitt, and it seems congratulations are in order!!!!

I can honestly say there isn't a more deserving person.

What a relief.

[suninphx]

Just saw on trackkit that Teddy got approved. I think its OUR Teddy.

Cheers man !!! Enjoy
Great News!!

Congratulations T! Well deserved!

[pdfeb09]

Just saw on trackkit that Teddy got approved. I think its OUR Teddy.

Cheers man !!! Enjoy

He posted it here too just on a different thread... Teddy's Approval Post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?238-Post-485-Filing&p=24790#post24790)

[Jonty Rhodes]

Wow, natvyas and Spectator, you guys are fast. I just saw Teddy's I-485 got approved and when I opened the forum, you already posted the congratulatory messages.

Anyways, one more from me.

Many Congratulations Teddy. You along with Q, Spec, Veni, Nishant, KD, Monica, Kanmani, suninphx and other experts, have been a ray of hope for many others in waiting.

Congrats again. Great news.

Keep up the good work.

[Kanmani]

Congratulations! Kolugc. enjoy!

[mesan123]

COngratulations koluguc....


Very happy to post this, and wanted to thank each and everybody here for the information I could use from here in pursuing my journey...!!

Today morning 7:15 got the CPO email about my 485 approval.

Receipt Number: LIN12902402**
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

PD: 06/09/2008
RD:01/03/2012 (2 dependents same date)
ND:01/06/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP Notice: 02/01/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP App: 02/15/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP ND: 02/10/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP RD: 02/16/2012 (2 dependents same date)
485 CPO mail: 03/15/2012 (2 dependents same date) - Card Production

Wish you all good luck..!!!

[veni001]

Friends finally at 12 PM EST received the CPO mails for me and my wife. Finally this is the culmination of a very long journey. Gives me a great happiness and relief in reaching this milestone which until a few years was just a dream.

My sincerest thanks and deepest gratitude is due to all of you for your wishes and kind words especially in the RFE phase. Immigration forums started for me as a place of learning and it still is only difference is that it is a part of life now; really good since it has introduced me to so many friends and given me a truly great opportunity to interact. I will definitely be around. I wish everyone waiting all the very best, I hope you all reach the milestone soon.

Teddy,
Congratulations to you and your family.

[veni001]

Very happy to post this, and wanted to thank each and everybody here for the information I could use from here in pursuing my journey...!!

Today morning 7:15 got the CPO email about my 485 approval.

Receipt Number: LIN12902402**
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

PD: 06/09/2008
RD:01/03/2012 (2 dependents same date)
ND:01/06/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP Notice: 02/01/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP App: 02/15/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP ND: 02/10/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP RD: 02/16/2012 (2 dependents same date)
485 CPO mail: 03/15/2012 (2 dependents same date) - Card Production

Wish you all good luck..!!!

kolugc,
Congratulations.

[qesehmk]

Kolugc congrats and best wishes for future!


Very happy to post this, and wanted to thank each and everybody here for the information I could use from here in pursuing my journey...!!

Today morning 7:15 got the CPO email about my 485 approval.

Receipt Number: LIN12902402**
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

PD: 06/09/2008
RD:01/03/2012 (2 dependents same date)
ND:01/06/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP Notice: 02/01/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP App: 02/15/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP ND: 02/10/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP RD: 02/16/2012 (2 dependents same date)
485 CPO mail: 03/15/2012 (2 dependents same date) - Card Production

Wish you all good luck..!!!

[kolugc]

Kolugc congrats and best wishes for future!

Thank you all for your compliments..!!!

I wish you all good luck...

I had been on many sites, but this site is the bible for me so far.... And I had seen a clean culture here... Awesome job guys...

[suninphx]

Kolugc - congratulations! I hope more and more 2007/08 cases get approval so that opens door for 2009 and onwards.

[eb2visa]

Congrats to all who got 485 approved.

I received my EAD receipts on 2/28, with received date of 2/21. I couldn't find the case status in USCIS - check my case status. It is saying the info not available. Is this common? Shall I need to contact the service center? I didn't received the Finger Print appointment yet.

[usernameisnotvalid]

My RD is 2/18 and I am still not able to check the status. don't worry they normally update it after your FP is done. I completed my FP on 3/8 and I am able to check status of AP for my kid only. Nothing for me and my wife yet - not EAD/AP case status.


Congrats to all who got 485 approved.

I received my EAD receipts on 2/28, with received date of 2/21. I couldn't find the case status in USCIS - check my case status. It is saying the info not available. Is this common? Shall I need to contact the service center? I didn't received the Finger Print appointment yet.

[khushraho]

^^

I can't see the case online even after FP..shall we get an email when it gets approved or everyday the status needs to be checked online?

[vizcard]

^^

I can't see the case online even after FP..shall we get an email when it gets approved or everyday the status needs to be checked online?
You will not get emails unless you register and sign up for emails and text msgs. So if y ou cannot see it online, thenyou wont get text msgs.r

[Spectator]

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 -- Mar 15 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 ----- 145 (+ 11 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 ----- 487 (+ 33 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 ----- 630 (+ 90 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 ----- 732 (+132 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 ----- 514 (+146 cases)
March VB ---- PD Jan 01 2010 to Apr 30 2010 ------------------------------------------------------- 72 (+ 72 cases)

More info here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012).

Especially for immi2910, a breakdown by USCIS Received Month.

USCIS Receipt Date --- October -- November - December -- January -- February ---- March -- Total
Pre FY2012 PD ------------- 11 -------- 11 -------- 6 -------- 4 --------- 3 -------- 1 ----- 36
October VB --------------- 119 -------- 16 -------- 2 -------- 5 --------- 2 -------- 1 ---- 145
November VB -------------------------- 429 ------- 50 -------- 5 --------- 3 -------- 0 ---- 487
December VB ------------------------------------- 548 ------- 62 -------- 17 -------- 3 ---- 630
January VB ------------------------------------------------- 638 -------- 89 -------- 5 ---- 732
February VB ------------------------------------------------------------ 492 ------- 22 ---- 514
March VB --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 72 ----- 72

Total -------------------- 130 ------- 456 ------ 606 ------ 714 ------- 606 ------ 104 -- 2,616

[Nov2010]

Based on this is there any change in prediction by end of Sept where we will stand in terms of Priority Date cut off?

[reachme_s]

Very happy to post this, and wanted to thank each and everybody here for the information I could use from here in pursuing my journey...!!

Today morning 7:15 got the CPO email about my 485 approval.

Receipt Number: LIN12902402**
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

PD: 06/09/2008
RD:01/03/2012 (2 dependents same date)
ND:01/06/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP Notice: 02/01/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP App: 02/15/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP ND: 02/10/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP RD: 02/16/2012 (2 dependents same date)
485 CPO mail: 03/15/2012 (2 dependents same date) - Card Production

Wish you all good luck..!!!

Congratulations kolugc!! Enjoy your green life!

[TeddyKoochu]

Once again my sincerest thanks to all of you. I had posted my approval news on the post 485 news here. You guys are awesome

natvyas - Thanks my friend. You are amazing in spotting this so soon.
spectator- Thanks my friend, I kept my promise about updating my profile now part of your statistics so immensely useful to all of us.
suninphx - Thanks again my friend.
pdfeb09 - Thanks my friend. Really appreciate you posting the link to my post.
Jonty Rhodes - Thanks my friend.
veni001 - Thanks my friend from the old days. Man you and Spec have taken this thing to another level by those great perm calculations.
vizcard - Thanks my friend.

[happyme]

Hello,

Thanks members for the setting up and managing this wonderful forum.

This place is almost like a glass ball where at least I make out the trends and make some useful conclusions.
As pointed out before this is a clean forum with some good sense of humor.

This is my only contribution to this forum:
PD: 04/16/2008
485 application filed: January 2, 2012.
EAD Card: 2/16
CPO Card Production Ordered mail: 3/16/2012.

Thanks much

[Spectator]

Spotted this on Ron Gotcher's forum http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16667&p=69574#post69574


AILA just posted this ("AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12031639 (posted Mar. 16, 2012)")



On March 16, 2012, at the AILA Midwest Regional Conference in Chicago, Charlie Oppenheim, Chief, Visa Control and Reporting at DOS, informed participants that he will likely retrogress India and China-mainland born Employment-Based Second Preference priority dates to around August 2007, effective with either the May or June 2012 Visa Bulletin. He also advised that he projects that all EB-1 visas available in FY2012 will be used this year, resulting in no "spilldown" to EB-2.

[pdfeb09]

Hello,

Thanks members for the setting up and managing this wonderful forum.

This place is almost like a glass ball where at least I make out the trends and make some useful conclusions.
As pointed out before this is a clean forum with some good sense of humor.

This is my only contribution to this forum:
PD: 04/16/2008
485 application filed: January 2, 2012.
EAD Card: 2/16
CPO Card Production Ordered mail: 3/16/2012.

Thanks much

Congratulations .. Enjoy !!

[kd2008]

I am thinking the phones calls and emails to USCIS are going off the charts already to make sure cases are approved before retrogression.

[nishant2200]

Spotted this on Ron Gotcher's forum http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16667&p=69574#post69574

This is really fresh news. thanks for posting. And thanks to Ron Gotcher for informing.

Guys who are current now and in April, apply or you might be PWMB. Folks who are not married may want to find a bride and get married soon!

[suninphx]

Spotted this on Ron Gotcher's forum http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16667&p=69574#post69574

Thanks Spec for the link.
Were you expecting any spillover from EB1 in your calculations for this year?

[mesan123]

This is bad ......i meant if the dates retrogress back to 2007....

anyway below is what Ron explanation was

"We knew that there would be a retrogression at some point. The unknown variable was the USCIS. For months, their production has lagged far behind what was needed to exhaust the annual quota. It appears that the Visa Office strategy of advancing cutoff dates in order to qualify more applicants at overseas consular posts has been successful. Also, it looks as though the USCIS has finally started to begin approving China/India EB2 cases at a much faster pace. This means that between the increased productivity by the USCIS and the significantly larger number of people applying at consular posts abroad, the annual quota will be exhausted and no visas will be wasted this year.

As for the severity of the retrogression, keep in mind that for every one additional case applying overseas, nine adjustment applications were filed. While the overseas cases will be resolved within a couple of months, those AOS cases will remain in inventory for years. This is a much smaller version of what happened in the summer of 2007. We will start seeing forward movement again in October. "

Hoping if it starts moving again from october, atleast by last quater of 2012 this backlog cases be approved...


This is really fresh news. thanks for posting. And thanks to Ron Gotcher for informing.

Guys who are current now and in April, apply or you might be PWMB. Folks who are not married may want to find a bride and get married soon!

[venkat]

here is the complete agenda for that meeting

http://www.aila.org/content/fileviewer.aspx?docid=37079&linkid=243654

They are going to talk about overseas visa rejections, employer-employee relationship etc

[natvyas]

PD: 24 Mar 08
MD: 10 Jan 12
ND: 18 Jan 12
FP: 8 Mar 12
NSC

I have called USCIS twice (last Friday and today) and on both occasions when I spoke to the someone, the gave me the standard BS about the processing time is 4 months etc etc and no particulars about either my Background/name check and nothing on the status of my case....

any ideas about how to break through their defence?

Cheers
Naitik

[nishant2200]

Thanks Spec for the link.
Were you expecting any spillover from EB1 in your calculations for this year?

Teddy was not for sure, based on his trackitt calculations and EB1-C usage, he had pointed out this earlier, I believe. Seems like whatever party we had so far was at the mercy of EB2-ROW.

[manubhai]

Spotted this on Ron Gotcher's forum http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16667&p=69574#post69574

:mad:

So he's only TALKED about it and not DONE it yet, but I guess this goes again to show that this forum (Spec and gang) is doing some serious calculations, and not just predictions. I'm glad Ron posted this, but I have to point out that I had not heard or seen any lawyer say that there will be a retrogression... all had been pointing to continuing advancement in PDs.

[tackle]

Spotted this on Ron Gotcher's forum http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16667&p=69574#post69574

Great!

</sarcasm>

[Jonty Rhodes]

This is bad ......i meant if the dates retrogress back to 2007....

anyway below is what Ron explanation was

"We knew that there would be a retrogression at some point. The unknown variable was the USCIS. For months, their production has lagged far behind what was needed to exhaust the annual quota. It appears that the Visa Office strategy of advancing cutoff dates in order to qualify more applicants at overseas consular posts has been successful. Also, it looks as though the USCIS has finally started to begin approving China/India EB2 cases at a much faster pace. This means that between the increased productivity by the USCIS and the significantly larger number of people applying at consular posts abroad, the annual quota will be exhausted and no visas will be wasted this year.

As for the severity of the retrogression, keep in mind that for every one additional case applying overseas, nine adjustment applications were filed. While the overseas cases will be resolved within a couple of months, those AOS cases will remain in inventory for years. This is a much smaller version of what happened in the summer of 2007. We will start seeing forward movement again in October. "

Hoping if it starts moving again from october, atleast by last quater of 2012 this backlog cases be approved...

Agree that dates should start moving forward again from October, 2012 once FY2013 starts. However, the important question is how far the dates will advance and at what speed.

I am just trying to make sense of those NVC notices sent deep in to June, 2011. I know that once the fees for NVC notices are submitted, they will be valid indefinitely and will not expire but in general, people who have received NVC notices have become current within 6 months to 1 year and I really don't know why NVC notices will be sent out if dates are not expected to cover those PDs within few months of sending notices. The question is will the dates advance to Mid 2011 soon after the beginning of FY 2013 or is it going to move at a very slow pace (moving every few months each VB) and we may reach Mid 2011 by the end of FY2013 or it may go to FY2014.

Can someone throw some light on this?

[suninphx]

Teddy was not for sure, based on his trackitt calculations and EB1-C usage, he had pointed out this earlier, I believe. Seems like whatever party we had so far was at the mercy of EB2-ROW.

His recent projection of SOFAD for this year was of 35K. Let me find out that post to see if there is any break down mentioned.

[vishnu]

I dont understand a couple of things.

1) As Jonty mentioned, then why issue NVC fee notices out. I am PD Sep 2010 and have received them too.
2) They have already approved some 485s for 2008 PDs.
3) Why has he said he would retrogress in May or June. Why not just with certainity next month? Perhaps he wants to move dates significantly forward and then do a final retrogression back to 07?

Any insights from the maha gurus would be great.