EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[manzoorraza]

Congrats Jan2008.



All my dear peeps,

I wanted to share the news of us getting greened!!

wohoo!!

PD: Jan 6th, 2008
485 Approval: Feb 28th

Thank you all on this forum and hope everyone gets greened soon. God is great!

[mysati]

Here is what Ron Gotcher had to say about the "low hanging fruit" theory.

I went through our records today, to see what results we have gotten. First, I found that most of the AOS approvals we received were for EB3 to EB2 upgrade cases where the applicant had an I-485 on file and pending since 2007. These were largely all pre-adjudicated cases. We have had a few new filings that have been approved, but they appear to be anomalies. That is, they were filed after other new filings (in some cases months later), but have been approved nonetheless. This is not at all an unusual phenomenon with the USCIS. The USCIS Ombudsman criticized the USCIS in one of the annual reports for "picking the low hanging fruit." That is, they would pull out what they considered to be very easy cases and approve those, rather than taking more complex cases that were filed earlier.

Hope this clears some air.

Sorry to sound rude here, that is not my intention. But he is saying that most of the approved cases are related to porting which I strongly feel is not true based on the profile of the people from this forum who are getting approved and the other people that I know of.

We all know that he strongly advocates porting and is trying to make a case for it here. That's what I feel. Feel free to disagree...

[Jonty Rhodes]

Sorry to sound rude here, that is not my intention. But he is saying that most of the approved cases are related to porting which I strongly feel is not true based on the profile of the people from this forum who are getting approved and the other people that I know of.

We all know that he strongly advocates porting and is trying to make a case for it here. That's what I feel. Feel free to disagree...

I don't disagree with you. In fact, if you look at the beginning of the paragraph, I also feel that Ron is trying to make a case for porting which he always does. Looking at the trend, the scenario seems to be different than what Ron suggests. However, I just posted a comment to show what he had to say about "low hanging fruit theory" and which he has mentioned in the later part of the paragraph.

[nishant2200]

I don't disagree with you. In fact, if you look at the beginning of the paragraph, I also feel that Ron is trying to make a case for porting which he always does. Looking at the trend, the scenario seems to be different than what Ron suggests. However, I just posted a comment to show what he had to say about "low hanging fruit theory" and which he has mentioned in the later part of the paragraph.

Sure, one thing to note is whenever an OP quotes some other person's comment like Ron, most of the times, he is inviting thoughts from people on this forum on that comment, it may not necessarily mean the OP is trying to propogate support of that comment :)

now my thoughts on this. I think it's wrong of Ron to even call the porting of EB3 to EB2 for cases which have I-485 filed during the July 2007 fiasco a low hanging fruit. They are just a special case, and absolutely they can be and are approved faster, USCIS is ethically obliged to do it, there is no reason to hold them up. The main reason is the I-485 is already sitting pre-adjudicated, all it needs is the new I-140 approval of the EB2 job, the new EVL, and a written request to consider the former I-485 for the new job, these are the main things needed.

[Spectator]

You can find it here (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm)

As we already knew, it was a low production quarter.

Certified -- 9,531
Denied ---- 1,374
Withdrawn -- 547

Total ----11,352


I have updated the various posts in FACTS & DATA to reflect the new figures.

[kd2008]

Thank you Spec.

I noticed this for ROW-M-P:

More than PD, the approval date matters, esp, in case of EB2 cases as upon PERM approval they can file concurrently and end up getting reflected in USCIS inventory.

Here are approvals by FY:

FY 2010: 37173
FY 2011: 18926
FY 2012 Q1: 3805

Basically, if EB1 usage does not change then a slightly higher SOFAD for Eb2IC may happen. Again just a possibility but not a definitive.

[cm9201]

I have few friends whose dependents EAD/AP approved and primary no update including me though filed together perhaps sent in same package. Any clue how USCIS processing.

[tatikonda]

You can find it here (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm)

As we already knew, it was a low production quarter.

Certified -- 9,531
Denied ---- 1,374
Withdrawn -- 547

Total ----11,352


I have updated the various posts in FACTS & DATA to reflect the new figures.

Spec,

I looked at the report. It did reported pending cases.
there might be several hundreds pending cases ??

Thank u.

[tatikonda]

Thank you Spec.

I noticed this for ROW-M-P:

More than PD, the approval date matters, esp, in case of EB2 cases as upon PERM approval they can file concurrently and end up getting reflected in USCIS inventory.

Here are approvals by FY:

FY 2010: 37173
FY 2011: 18926
FY 2012 Q1: 3805

Basically, if EB1 usage does not change then a slightly higher SOFAD for Eb2IC may happen. Again just a possibility but not a definitive.

KD,

Yes I agree with most of your post, that's great observation by comparing last 3 FY years PERM.
But your last line.
Again just a possibility but not a definitive.. If spillover rules remains unchanged. SOFAD is 100 %.

[kolugc]

I see another Jan filer with PD in June 2008 approved GC

http://www.trackitt.com/member/pats2012

Service Center: Texas
Priority Date: 10 Jun 2008

[qesehmk]

KD excellent observation. I agree.

Thanks to Spec too!!
Thank you Spec.

I noticed this for ROW-M-P:

More than PD, the approval date matters, esp, in case of EB2 cases as upon PERM approval they can file concurrently and end up getting reflected in USCIS inventory.

Here are approvals by FY:

FY 2010: 37173
FY 2011: 18926
FY 2012 Q1: 3805

Basically, if EB1 usage does not change then a slightly higher SOFAD for Eb2IC may happen. Again just a possibility but not a definitive.

[suninphx]

I see another Jan filer with PD in June 2008 approved GC

http://www.trackitt.com/member/pats2012

Service Center: Texas
Priority Date: 10 Jun 2008

Keep them coming....

[Sunnyznj]

some one may have thought about this already but posting it again for my own clarification ....

Does anyone have an approximate idea of how many 221G refusals were issued since 2009? I am thinking may be that is another way to determine so called DD. I am thinking most of the 221G refusals result in a fresh H-1B and a new labor in which case can we assume that the total number of refusals translate to part of the DD? on the contrary is it safe to say that it is not true DD as they try to port their old PD?

[Prabhas]

Sunny,

Its not just the H1 refusals, you may also want to look into L1 refusals as well , as they are eligible to apply for GC. On an average it was rounded to 40-50% of 221G/denials since 2008 to 2010 evident from the report by NFAP that I posted earlier.

[Sunnyznj]

Sunny,

Its not just the H1 refusals, you may also want to look into L1 refusals as well , as they are eligible to apply for GC. On an average it was rounded to 40-50% of 221G/denials since 2008 to 2010 evident from the report by NFAP that I posted earlier.

Thanks. 40-50% denials seems a lot but i guess DOS is really upping its game in denials. I hope they release inventory data more frequently...

[manzoorraza]

Sunny/Prabhas,
Although there have been a lot of queries but still 40-50% does seem very high........and scary. I am personally a subject of one (a pretty nasty one at that) and this percentage is very unnerving. Just waiting for my EAD before I respond to it just in case things go south with the H1.

I have heard that the approval rate has improved a tad recently after some noise was made and there was also talk of the RFE rate being high to quickly go through the backlog and make the processing numbers look better. Another theory doing the rounds is the higher RFE's are being handed out as a justification to additional resources for fraud prevention or vice-versa (depending on who you ask) - All this may add up to a high query/rejection rate. Either way, slowly and steadily, they are catching up with the games being played by the body shops...........the real scary thing is they are opening up cases from the past where there is suspect behavior on part of the employer. Recently heard from one of my colleagues that his company's financials are being investigated and that has been the cause of no one from his company getting an approval on 485 although their priority dates are way in the past. Their attorney/employer is not sure if they will investigate cases where the greencards have already been issued or if they would let bygones be bygones. Am sure this would scare some but offlate things are starting to get more difficult with H1s. Even the site visits have increased a lot; we have had 2 at our client site (one of the largest investment banks) within my group.



Thanks. 40-50% denials seems a lot but i guess DOS is really upping its game in denials. I hope they release inventory data more frequently...

[shaumack]

Thank you Spec.

I noticed this for ROW-M-P:

More than PD, the approval date matters, esp, in case of EB2 cases as upon PERM approval they can file concurrently and end up getting reflected in USCIS inventory.Here are approvals by FY:

FY 2010: 37173
FY 2011: 18926
FY 2012 Q1: 3805

Basically, if EB1 usage does not change then a slightly higher SOFAD for Eb2IC may happen. Again just a possibility but not a definitive.

I believe those who will file concurrently are not counted into I-485 Inventory unless I-140 is approved. I remember reading it somewhere but could not find the reference now. This is from the FAQ on I-485 Inventory.


Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?

A: Although this pending inventory report is intended to provide information about demand for an immigrant visa and give potential employment-based immigrants an idea of where they stand in line for a visa, it does not include all potential employment-based immigrants. This report contains principal and dependent employment-based I-485s pending at USCIS Service Centers and Field Offices. It does not include cases pending consular processing at overseas posts. It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing. Please note, therefore, that there are likely many individuals with an earlier priority date than your own who do not currently appear on the inventory, either because they are awaiting consular processing or because they have not filed an I-485

It is not clear what does above statement infer. Does it mean Inventory does not include those "whose I-140 is pending but has not filed I-485" or "regardless all whose I-140 is pending are not counted"? Obviously former is contradicting and very intuitive. If individual's I-140 is pending and if he is not eligible or chose not to file concurrently, we do not expect them to be in I-485 Inventory.Why to make such statement. Anyways just wanted to throw this information out and see if it makes sense. In meantime let me see if I can find that reference.

[Kanmani]

It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing.

This refers to non-concurrent I-485 filers.



I believe those who will file concurrently are not counted into I-485 Inventory unless I-140 is approved. I remember reading it somewhere but could not find the reference now..

Yes , You are correct , I too remember reading the same. My guess is ombudsman report to congress.

[Spectator]

I believe those who will file concurrently are not counted into I-485 Inventory unless I-140 is approved. I remember reading it somewhere but could not find the reference now. This is from the FAQ on I-485 Inventory.



It is not clear what does above statement infer. Does it mean Inventory does not include those "whose I-140 is pending but has not filed I-485" or "regardless all whose I-140 is pending are not counted"? Obviously former is contradicting and very intuitive. If individual's I-140 is pending and if he is not eligible or chose not to file concurrently, we do not expect them to be in I-485 Inventory.Why to make such statement. Anyways just wanted to throw this information out and see if it makes sense. In meantime let me see if I can find that reference.The reference is from the cisomb-2010-annual-report-response.pdf document, where USCIS responded to the comments in the Ombudsman's Report.

I have quoted the relevant portion below.


To clarify this point, the pending inventory report contains all principal and dependent employment-based green card applications pending at the Nebraska Service Center (NSC) and the Texas Service Center (TSC).

This includes cases for which visas are currently available but have not yet been adjudicated to completion, and cases that have been pre-adjudicated because the applicant is otherwise eligible but a visa is not currently available.

In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory.

This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times. However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report.

[shaumack]

The reference is from the cisomb-2010-annual-report-response.pdf document, where USCIS responded to the comments in the Ombudsman's Report.

I have quoted the relevant portion below.

That is it!!!! Thanks Spec & Kanmani. I will make sure that I bookmark it this time.

[kd2008]

Thank you all for correcting me. I learn something new everyday here.

[Osaka001]

Here is trackitt numbers update,

PD Range ----- #Months-----# Applications
Aug'07-Mar'08-----8--------1141
Apr'08-Dec'09----- 21-------1075

Country: India, Chargeabilit:India and Cat:Eb2

The number of filings are very low from Apr'08, Am I missing anything?, or people are taking more time to file I-485s.




Sunny/Prabhas,
Although there have been a lot of queries but still 40-50% does seem very high........and scary. I am personally a subject of one (a pretty nasty one at that) and this percentage is very unnerving. Just waiting for my EAD before I respond to it just in case things go south with the H1.

I have heard that the approval rate has improved a tad recently after some noise was made and there was also talk of the RFE rate being high to quickly go through the backlog and make the processing numbers look better. Another theory doing the rounds is the higher RFE's are being handed out as a justification to additional resources for fraud prevention or vice-versa (depending on who you ask) - All this may add up to a high query/rejection rate. Either way, slowly and steadily, they are catching up with the games being played by the body shops...........the real scary thing is they are opening up cases from the past where there is suspect behavior on part of the employer. Recently heard from one of my colleagues that his company's financials are being investigated and that has been the cause of no one from his company getting an approval on 485 although their priority dates are way in the past. Their attorney/employer is not sure if they will investigate cases where the greencards have already been issued or if they would let bygones be bygones. Am sure this would scare some but offlate things are starting to get more difficult with H1s. Even the site visits have increased a lot; we have had 2 at our client site (one of the largest investment banks) within my group.

[Spectator]

Here is trackitt numbers update,

PD Range ----- #Months-----# Applications
Aug'07-Mar'08-----8--------1141
Apr'08-Dec'09----- 21-------1075

Country: India, Chargeabilit:India and Cat:Eb2

The number of filings are very low from Apr'08, Am I missing anything?, or people are taking more time to file I-485s.It is a conversation we have already had.

It is taking 3-4 months for people to add their cases to Trackitt, even if they filed in the month they became Current.

Look at the first table here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012). Even November VB PD cases are still being added to Trackitt in significant quantities.

[kd2008]

It is a conversation we have already had.

It is taking 3-4 months for people to add their cases to Trackitt, even if they filed in the month they became Current.

Look at the first table here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012). Even November VB PD cases are still being added to Trackitt in significant quantities.

I simply love that table. Such a wonderful summary of all that has happened since October 2011.

[insane_yogi]

I might be off-topic, but is there a way from PERM data to filter EB2 and EB3? What about fields like PW_Source_Name_9089/PW_Level_9089 which indicates level of experience required for each job based on PWD ... From my experience noticed that EB2 candidates are usually required to fall under 'Level 3' or 'Level 4' categories. Any comments?

[Kanmani]

Nope
Ms+0 exp is Level 1 in most cases


I might be off-topic, but is there a way from PERM data to filter EB2 and EB3? What about fields like PW_Source_Name_9089/PW_Level_9089 which indicates level of experience required for each job based on PWD ... From my experience noticed that EB2 candidates are usually required to fall under 'Level 3' or 'Level 4' categories. Any comments?

[insane_yogi]

Kanmani:
True but how many employers file in EB2 for MS+0Exp...usually they require 2 to 3 years of exp with current company to file for EB2....

[Kanmani]

yogi,
There are people with Ms+0, Ms+1 Level 1 Eb2 in my vicinity.
I did all ground-work to differentiate within the Perm data, but I failed to prove that all Level 1 are Eb3 and obviously they are not. In real time scenario many Level1 are Eb2 , many PWD 60K are Eb2.
Its a hard truth to believe:)

[Willdo]

Gurus,

This is my first post, I was silent reader for long time. and learned much of Immigration stuff from here. I appreciate great help from all the Posters, which help people like me.

Any predictions for upcoming bulletin.....

-WillDO

[CleanSock]

I have a question. Does EB2 India get Spillover from EB2 Mexico and Philippines?

[veni001]

I have a question. Does EB2 India get Spillover from EB2 Mexico and Philippines?

CleanSock,

Answer is YES.

[CleanSock]

Thank You veni001 :) In that case, as per the released PERM data of Q1 FY2012, aren't EB Mexico and Philippines cases really low or have they been approximately the same in every quarter of every year? If they are low only in this quarter, would that mean that there will be more spillover from them?

[Spectator]

Here is the bi-monthly update on EB2-I Primary cases added to Trackitt since October 01, 2011.


-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 (+ 9 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 (+ 67 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 (+104 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 (+146 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 (+169 cases)


More statistics can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012), including a breakdown of approvals by PD.

[vizcard]

Here is the bi-monthly update on EB2-I Primary cases added to Trackitt since October 01, 2011.


-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 (+ 9 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 (+ 67 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 (+104 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 (+146 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 (+169 cases)


More statistics can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012), including a breakdown of approvals by PD.

Spec - what does 395 approvals really mean? I imagine that translates to about 6500 "real" approvals assuming 6% of cases are recorded on trackitt? Is that low or high or average?

What am I missing?

[Spectator]

Spec - what does 395 approvals really mean? I imagine that translates to about 6500 "real" approvals assuming 6% of cases are recorded on trackitt? Is that low or high or average?

What am I missing?vizcard,

That is not an easy question to answer.

Both the % of people adding their cases to Trackitt and those subsequently updating them to show an approval appear to have risen from the old pre-backlog cases.

Therefore the number of "real" approvals will be less than the 6.5k you mention.

It could be as low as 4k, but is probably slightly higher than that IMO. Really, it is a judgement call.

[kd2008]

Like clockwork, the page has been updated:

travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: April 2012 (Coming Soon)

Hopefully, we will see the bulletin by next Friday.

My guess for movement is 0 to 2 months. 4 months if we are very lucky. This is based on hunch as data really does not support the movement we have had so far anyways. I don't expect any retrogression for EB2IC.

[cool_guy_2004]

yogi,
There are people with Ms+0, Ms+1 Level 1 Eb2 in my vicinity.
I did all ground-work to differentiate within the Perm data, but I failed to prove that all Level 1 are Eb3 and obviously they are not. In real time scenario many Level1 are Eb2 , many PWD 60K are Eb2.
Its a hard truth to believe:)

Hello Kanmani,

Does USCIS prioritize processing the applications basing on these EB2 classification of Level 1, 2, 3..?

[Kanmani]

Hello Kanmani,

Does USCIS prioritize processing the applications basing on these EB2 classification of Level 1, 2, 3..?

In my opinion, No. But they are giving significance in matching job requirements with that of qualification.

[Kanmani]

At I485 level or I140 level?

I-140 level

[cool_guy_2004]

In my opinion, No. But they are giving significance in matching job requirements with that of qualification.

hmm...my case was filed with ms+0 exp although I have ms + few yrs of exp by the time they applied for my perm. It now concerns me if USCIS considers mine application as low priority over others instead of PD based.

[kd2008]

hmm...my case was filed with ms+0 exp although I have ms + few yrs of exp by the time they applied for my perm. It now concerns me if USCIS considers mine application as low priority over others instead of PD based.

Please don't waste your time on made-up worries. The min. qualification has to be what you started the job with. So if you started the job at MS + 0 then that is the min qualification even though they might apply for PERM at 2yrs down the road, say. Mine is somewhat similar case to yours.

As Kanmani said it is at I-140 level and not at I-485 level. So what are you worried about? And even if that made any difference, so what? After waiting so many months, would a wait of few more weeks kill ya?

[Kanmani]

hmm...my case was filed with ms+0 exp although I have ms + few yrs of exp by the time they applied for my perm. It now concerns me if USCIS considers mine application as low priority over others instead of PD based.

Cool guy, We were referring to diff levels in the perm and I-140 stage and that too I dont find any prioritization based upon qualification in any stage.
Be cool :)

[cool_guy_2004]

Cool guy, We were referring to diff levels in the perm and I-140 stage and that too I dont find any prioritization based upon qualification in any stage.
Be cool :)

Thanks for the clarification Kanamni!

KD..I didn't know it was applicable for I-140 but now it's clear!

[Spectator]

I have updated the Prevailing Wage Determination Data Analysis (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Determination-Data-Analysis&p=2454#post2454) with the Q1 FY2012 figures.

There seems to be a general trend to increasing EB2 applications. No surprise there!

[feedmyback]

Although it means nothing much..... the visa bulletin page has been updated with "April bulletin coming soon....." message. All the best to everyone waiting......

[asankaran]

I think it should move till Sep 1, 2010. Probably CO would want to cover 2010 in 3 months. All the best!

[immi2910]

Here is the bi-monthly update on EB2-I Primary cases added to Trackitt since October 01, 2011.


-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31 -- Feb 14 -- Feb 29 - Change
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 ---- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 ----- 125 ----- 134 (+ 9 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 ---- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 ----- 387 ----- 454 (+ 67 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 ---- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 ----- 436 ----- 540 (+104 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ----- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 ----- 454 ----- 600 (+146 cases)
February VB - PD Jan 01 2009 to Dec 31 2009 ---------------------------------- 199 ----- 368 (+169 cases)


More statistics can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?688-Statistics-for-EB2-I-Trackitt-New-I-485-Applications-Submitted-in-FY2012), including a breakdown of approvals by PD.

Spec,

I think it would more useful if you could break down the date based on Application Date or USCIS Received Date. Let's take an example to understand what I am saying.

In the date October VB cases increased from 125 to 134 (+9) from 2/14 to 2/19. However, it is important to figure if these were fresh cases filed in Feb or these were filed earlier but have just been updated in Trackitt.

This is where I think Application Filed Date can help. If these 9 new cases were filed in Jan but are just showing up now because people are updating the tracker then we can be certain that they are reflected in the I-485 receipts release by USCIS.

I think it will also be useful to see what %age of people file in the month their dates are current. So e.g. in the data above for Jan VB we see total 600 cases (up to 2/29) but only 310 up to Jan 31. Assuming the filing date is same as when people entered the data then it implies ~50% of people did not file in Jan (when they were current) but waited almost a month (and filed in Feb).

Based on the actual data only 53 applications of people who were current in Jan were filed in Feb and only 61 applications were received by USCIS in Feb for people who were current Jan. This implies that ~90% (and not 50%) of the people who were current in Jan filed their application in Jan and are thus reflected in the I-485 receipt data released by USCIS.

Finally, if we do that for multiple months we can with some certainty say what %age of people file in the month they are current, which would help us when I-485 receipts or I-485 Inventory is released.

[insane_yogi]

I have updated the Prevailing Wage Determination Data Analysis (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Determination-Data-Analysis&p=2454#post2454) with the Q1 FY2012 figures.

There seems to be a general trend to increasing EB2 applications. No surprise there!

Hi Spec,
Thanks for updating these numbers.. just want to understand how you differentiated between EB2 and EB3.. is that distribution based on highest education?

[Spectator]

Spec,

I think it would more useful if you could break down the date based on Application Date or USCIS Received Date. Let's take an example to understand what I am saying.

In the date October VB cases increased from 125 to 134 (+9) from 2/14 to 2/19. However, it is important to figure if these were fresh cases filed in Feb or these were filed earlier but have just been updated in Trackitt.

This is where I think Application Filed Date can help. If these 9 new cases were filed in Jan but are just showing up now because people are updating the tracker then we can be certain that they are reflected in the I-485 receipts release by USCIS.

I think it will also be useful to see what %age of people file in the month their dates are current. So e.g. in the data above for Jan VB we see total 600 cases (up to 2/29) but only 310 up to Jan 31. Assuming the filing date is same as when people entered the data then it implies ~50% of people did not file in Jan (when they were current) but waited almost a month (and filed in Feb).

Based on the actual data only 53 applications of people who were current in Jan were filed in Feb and only 61 applications were received by USCIS in Feb for people who were current Jan. This implies that ~90% (and not 50%) of the people who were current in Jan filed their application in Jan and are thus reflected in the I-485 receipt data released by USCIS.

Finally, if we do that for multiple months we can with some certainty say what %age of people file in the month they are current, which would help us when I-485 receipts or I-485 Inventory is released.immi2910,

The additions are based on the Case Added to Tracker Field in Trackitt, so by definition they are new cases that did not exist before. That date will never change.

About 90% of people actually file in the month their PD became Current, based on the stats to date. I do keep those figures, but I don't think they are useful to publish.

USCIS Receipt Date

October VB

--------- Cases ---- % --
October --- 118 -- 88.06%
November --- 11 --- 8.21%
December ---- 1 --- 0.75%
January ----- 3 --- 2.24%
February ---- 1 --- 0.75%


November VB

November -- 408 -- 89.67%
December --- 42 --- 9.23%
January ----- 3 --- 0.66%
February ---- 2 --- 0.44%


December VB

December -- 475 -- 87.96%
January ---- 54 -- 10.00%
February --- 11 --- 2.04%


January VB

January --- 543 -- 90.35%
February --- 58 --- 9.65%

[srimurthy]

Spec,

I was looking at the Bachelor's + 5 Years % increase over years from 19 to 22 to 24% in EB2 category. That seems to be around 2% increase year on years and Could this be any indicator towards the porting numbers from EB3 to EB2?


I have updated the Prevailing Wage Determination Data Analysis (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Determination-Data-Analysis&p=2454#post2454) with the Q1 FY2012 figures.

There seems to be a general trend to increasing EB2 applications. No surprise there!

[veni001]

Thank You veni001 :) In that case, as per the released PERM data of Q1 FY2012, aren't EB Mexico and Philippines cases really low or have they been approximately the same in every quarter of every year? If they are low only in this quarter, would that mean that there will be more spillover from them?

CleanSock,
The number of ROW-M-P PERM certifications (matter of fact all PERM certifications) per quarter are decreasing over the past year.

You can see FY2010-FY2011 data comparison in post #2553 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2012&p=14616#post14616).

Below are PERM certifications for ROW-MP for last 5 quarters

FY2011 - Q1 - 8,023
FY2011 - Q2 - 7,222
FY2011 - Q3 - 5,355
FY2011 - Q4 - 4,542
FY2012 - Q1 - 3,805

I believe, due to low EB2ROW-MP demand CO is able to apply quarterly spillover.

[CleanSock]

Thanks for the clarification veni001. I now understand it better :)

[tatikonda]

Gurus,

As I was going through the FY2012 Q1 PERM Data, Access Files.
Last column, CLASS_OF_ADMISSION, might be the field we can use to find probable porting cases. ( not 100 % though).
As I observed few of cases, where Porting cases are either blank or PAROLEE. it is not H1B.

Thank you
Tatikonda.

[imdeng]

Very interesting Veni. The decline in ROW numbers are astounding especially when you consider that numbers for C are falling too and I is the only one holding steady and growing even. This shows that we may get significant fall-across spillover this year.


Below are PERM certifications for ROW-MP for last 5 quarters

FY2011 - Q1 - 8,023
FY2011 - Q2 - 7,222
FY2011 - Q3 - 5,355
FY2011 - Q4 - 4,542
FY2012 - Q1 - 3,805

I believe, due to low EB2ROW-MP demand CO is able to apply quarterly spillover.

[rasknorr]

May be this has been posted already but does this data helps us in predicting any thing?

http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/PERM-Statistics-Feb.-15-2012.pdf

[rookie]

Hi Everyone -
I need your advise on a current situation of my I-140 case. My PD is 7/2011 and got my PERM approved during Oct 2011 under EB-2 and filed 140 (regular-NSC) on Nov 2, 2011. Till today there has been no movement at all except for a soft LUD on Nov 8, 2011. As I can see that the normal processing time for 140 at NSC is 4 months and in my case, it has just crossed that timeline. What option would be a best move at this point?

- Follow up with attorney and open a SR.
- Upgrade to premium.
- Wait (as my PD is not going to be current atleast till the end of this FY). Will I be able to file 485 if my PD becomes current and 140 still pending?

Situations that are making me to worry are the I-140 approvals of my colleagues who filed 10-15 days (around Nov 15) later than me and we all have the same profile & experience (F1-H1). On the other side, looking at their approvals without RFE builds some confidence.

Please help!

[rookie]

Thanks Kanmani

[vizcard]

Hi Everyone -
I need your advise on a current situation of my I-140 case. My PD is 7/2011 and got my PERM approved during Oct 2011 under EB-2 and filed 140 (regular-NSC) on Nov 2, 2011. Till today there has been no movement at all except for a soft LUD on Nov 8, 2011. As I can see that the normal processing time for 140 at NSC is 4 months and in my case, it has just crossed that timeline. What option would be a best move at this point?

- Follow up with attorney and open a SR.
- Upgrade to premium.
- Wait (as my PD is not going to be current atleast till the end of this FY). Will I be able to file 485 if my PD becomes current and 140 still pending?

Situations that are making me to worry are the I-140 approvals of my colleagues who filed 10-15 days (around Nov 15) later than me and we all have the same profile & experience (F1-H1). On the other side, looking at their approvals without RFE builds some confidence.

Please help!
As Kanmani points out, you can wait for a week or so before any follow up. You CANNOT file a 485 without an approved 140. I can say with a good bit of confident (thanks to the math here), that you will be not current in this VB.

[kd2008]

USCIS dashboard updated!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=5&charttype=1

[Spectator]

USCIS dashboard updated!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=5&charttype=1
At last!!

I've been checking since the 21st when it is normally updated.

[idiotic]

You CANNOT file a 485 without an approved 140.

I do not think this is right. You can file 485 while I-140 is pending.

[mesan123]

I-140 and 485 can be filled concurrently right? if the dates are current.....rookie need not wait for I-140 approval for filling 485 if he becomes current.


Viz, I believe, Once current, rookie can file I-485 even before I-140 approval ( with a I-140 receipt notice) .

Gurus please comment .

[rookie]

After looking at Viz reply, I started reading about concurrent filing. Looks like one can file for a 485 when PD is current, even with a pending 140.

Again, Gurus please comment.

[suninphx]

After looking at Viz reply, I started reading about concurrent filing. Looks like one can file for a 485 when PD is current, even with a pending 140.

Again, Gurus please comment.

If your I140 is still pending when your date becomes current then upgrade that to premium. Dont stress too much on this. You will be fine.

Meantime check with your lawyer if you can file with I140 pending.

[veni001]

USCIS dashboard updated!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=5&charttype=1

Thank you KD2008,

Updated appropriate threads in FACTS AND DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) section with FY2012-Q1 data.

[mesan123]

yes you are right... :)


After looking at Viz reply, I started reading about concurrent filing. Looks like one can file for a 485 when PD is current, even with a pending 140.

Again, Gurus please comment.

[fedupwithgc]

yes you are right... :)

The EB2 ROW people always apply concurrently as they are current, so Yes you can apply 485 when 140 is pending. They even get EAD/AP before I140 approval but it gets invalid if 140 is denied.

[vizcard]

After looking at Viz reply, I started reading about concurrent filing. Looks like one can file for a 485 when PD is current, even with a pending 140.

Again, Gurus please comment.

You can file concurrently IF you are current. My response was due to the fact that you were not current.

[aGCHopefull]

Hi Gurus,

I have been the quiet reader on this forum for long time and am amazed by your knowledge on the matter. You guys are superb and really doing a great job. Hats off to you!!

I have a question (this may be off the topic though)

When my PERM and I-140 was filed, my job title was "Senior Developer" but my employer had filed the PERM (& I-140) as "Project Manager". When I got the promotion, my title was changed to "Technical Manager". The job duties are still the same but title is different than in PERM/I-140

My question is:
1. When we file I-485, will this cause a problem?
2. If yes then what can we do to avoid this? Any supporting documents?

Please help!

Thanks,

[vizcard]

Hi Gurus,

I have been the quiet reader on this forum for long time and am amazed by your knowledge on the matter. You guys are superb and really doing a great job. Hats off to you!!

I have a question (this may be off the topic though)

When my PERM and I-140 was filed, my job title was "Senior Developer" but my employer had filed the PERM (& I-140) as "Project Manager". When I got the promotion, my title was changed to "Technical Manager". The job duties are still the same but title is different than in PERM/I-140

My question is:
1. When we file I-485, will this cause a problem?
2. If yes then what can we do to avoid this? Any supporting documents?

Please help!

Thanks,

When did you file your PERM? People get promoted and job titles change. As long as the work remains the same you are fine. I filed in 2008 as a Manager. I filed my 485 as a Director. Same work, more responsibilities and new title.

[Spectator]

I thought I would do a Teddy-like summary of where I think things will go.

Because of increasing Trackitt representation, I don't think there have been quite as many approvals as Teddy.

The initial allocation seems to have already been used. By the end of Q2, I think a little over 13k spillover will also have been allocated, which would equate to about 25k for the whole year at the same rate. With the initial allocation, that would be about 30k SOFAD.

EB2-ROW-M-P will contribute more spillover this year, but it will be offset by higher EB1 and EB5 numbers, so total SOFAD may be similar to last year. I believe EB1 will reach at least the mid 30's and EB5 will rise to 6k.

OR appears to be about 0.75 at present, but this may rise closer to 0.8 based on current trends.

If all cases were adjudicated, that would leave the COD at around the end of Q1 2008. Given that won't be the case, a final resting point of somewhere in 2008 is probable. I don't believe it will end in 2009.

Going into FY2013, there will be sufficient pre-adjudicated cases that COD will move based on those numbers. If CO releases the initial allocation again, as well as QSP, then reasonable movement might be possible in Q1 FY2013 from the ending FY2012 COD.

Movement of the COD will not go past the high water mark reached in FY2012 until the number of pre-adjudicated cases is nearly exhausted, similar to reaching the July 2007 backlog end.

A caveat to the above is that there is not sufficient information yet to assess the numbers of applications for March 2008 onwards. If they are lower than expected, then greater progress would be possible.

Such are the perils of prediction. Although 5 months have passed, it is only really 1 or 2 months in terms of collecting semi-reliable information.

We desperately need some information about EB1 usage. Trackitt, which has been fairly reliable, is horribly skewed by the large numbers of EB1-C approvals for India. It is worth noting that EB1A and EB1B figures are also increased, but the approval profile for EB1 was weighted to the second half of the year in FY2011. Arrgghh!

[aGCHopefull]

When did you file your PERM? People get promoted and job titles change. As long as the work remains the same you are fine. I filed in 2008 as a Manager. I filed my 485 as a Director. Same work, more responsibilities and new title.

My PERM was filed in late 2010 for the position "Project Manager" even though I was Senior Developer.
(My employer used to file EB2 only for Manager and above. Since I was expecting a promotion in 2011 they filed EB2 projecting as Manager)

In 2011, when I got the promotion, I got the title of "Technical Manager". The job duties are same but title is different. So technically I was NEVER a "Project Manager".

Would that be a problem?

[kd2008]

I thought I would do a Teddy-like summary of where I think things will go.

Because of increasing Trackitt representation, I don't think there have been quite as many approvals as Teddy.

The initial allocation seems to have already been used. By the end of Q2, I think a little over 13k spillover will also have been allocated, which would equate to about 25k for the whole year at the same rate. With the initial allocation, that would be about 30k SOFAD.

EB2-ROW-M-P will contribute more spillover this year, but it will be offset by higher EB1 and EB5 numbers, so total SOFAD may be similar to last year. I believe EB1 will reach at least the mid 30's and EB5 will rise to 6k.

OR appears to be about 0.75 at present, but this may rise closer to 0.8 based on current trends.

If all cases were adjudicated, that would leave the COD at around the end of Q1 2008. Given that won't be the case, a final resting point of somewhere in 2008 is probable. I don't believe it will end in 2009.

Going into FY2013, there will be sufficient pre-adjudicated cases that COD will move based on those numbers. If CO releases the initial allocation again, as well as QSP, then reasonable movement might be possible in Q1 FY2013 from the ending FY2012 COD.

Movement of the COD will not go past the high water mark reached in FY2012 until the number of pre-adjudicated cases is nearly exhausted, similar to reaching the July 2007 backlog end.

A caveat to the above is that there is not sufficient information yet to assess the numbers of applications for March 2008 onwards. If they are lower than expected, then greater progress would be possible.

Such are the perils of prediction. Although 5 months have passed, it is only really 1 or 2 months in terms of collecting semi-reliable information.

We desperately need some information about EB1 usage. Trackitt, which has been fairly reliable, is horribly skewed by the large numbers of EB1-C approvals for India. It is worth noting that EB1A and EB1B figures are also increased, but the approval profile for EB1 was weighted to the second half of the year in FY2011. Arrgghh!

Spec, excellent summary. I am playing devil's advocate here or angel's depending on the way you look at it.

We all agree that cut off dates would be somewhere in late Q1, early Q2 of 2008. But for this to happen the USCIS processing has to be faster than the visas are made available. This would trigger retrogression and the said cut-off date. But so far USCIS has been playing catch up as far as processing goes, and to its credit has done better than the paltry expectations that many had. It might just unfold that USCIS processes just enough cases, and Mr. CO does not have to trigger retrogression. Without retrogression, Mr. CO can use the following (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf):


The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.

enabling him to use QSP every quarter that does not see retrogression. The bad thing about retrogression is that he has to follow country quotas and that is bad for first 3 quarters of the fiscal year. Without retrogression, he can gently guide the cut off dates forward as a portion of the inventory gets adjudicated.

For their part EB2IC folks have to be patient with USCIS and not flood them with SRs once the processing starts taking more than 4 months.

[qesehmk]

Promotion in the same job is never a problem. We have discused this extensively elsewhere. Personally I went from analyst to director in 5 years and the GC process went smooth. No worries.
My PERM was filed in late 2010 for the position "Project Manager" even though I was Senior Developer.
(My employer used to file EB2 only for Manager and above. Since I was expecting a promotion in 2011 they filed EB2 projecting as Manager)

In 2011, when I got the promotion, I got the title of "Technical Manager". The job duties are same but title is different. So technically I was NEVER a "Project Manager".

Would that be a problem?


On a different topic - Regarding AC21's provision about QSP I just want to point out that by that definition if QSP were to happen then it would've happened only in December. So there was no way dates should've moved in Oct and Nov. But the fact is they did. Which means that CO has done something different than simple QSP. More than likely the spillover has happened on a monthly basis here. Moreover the date movement is larger than required indicating that there is no science or formula or fundamental demand supply involved here. So again its futile to speculate what he will do next. The fact is this party can not go on forever - meaning dates won't be this good forever. But it is possible that the dates can continue to stay at an irrational place more than our ability to speculate when they will retrogress :)

[kd2008]

On a different topic - Regarding AC21's provision about QSP I just want to point out that by that definition if QSP were to happen then it would've happened only in December. So there was no way dates should've moved in Oct and Nov. But the fact is they did. Which means that CO has done something different than simple QSP. More than likely the spillover has happened on a monthly basis here. Moreover the date movement is larger than required indicating that there is no science or formula or fundamental demand supply involved here. So again its futile to speculate what he will do next. The fact is this party can not go on forever - meaning dates won't be this good forever. But it is possible that the dates can continue to stay at an irrational place more than our ability to speculate when they will retrogress :)


Q, please allow me to explain once again. I think we have been through this a few times. The kind of QSP you described will happen only if the demand is known and is more than the quarterly quota - typically happens after retrogression. When Mr. CO sees the demand less than the quarterly quota, he allows visas to be granted with out regard to country quota, as long as the total visa allocation stays under quarterly quota - this is the new QSP. For this he may choose any date movement he think he needs to make it happen. So I disagree with your point about only Dec should see movement/approvals in case of QSP. More over, the date movement was to generate inventory only as clearly explained by Mr. CO. About your point that the date movement is larger than required is based on the assumption that USCIS will approve all cases in inventory and move in an orderly fashion. I am sure USCIS and Mr. CO have their statistics about how many cases to accept esp. as they know cases do not get approved in order nor all cases are approved within, say, 4 months. So they are hedging their bets to have max. number of approvable cases in the allotted time frame. Nothing wrong with that as they have no real idea about how the recession and the demand destruction - small as it might be eventually - may affect the filing rate.

I do not think we are entirely focused on what he will do next, but more on how may all of this play out. On the face of it, retrogression seems a possibility. But I presented the scenario where it may not happen. Unlikely, I know, but so was the inventory build up.

[Spectator]

Spec, excellent summary. I am playing devil's advocate here or angel's depending on the way you look at it.

We all agree that cut off dates would be somewhere in late Q1, early Q2 of 2008. But for this to happen the USCIS processing has to be faster than the visas are made available. This would trigger retrogression and the said cut-off date. But so far USCIS has been playing catch up as far as processing goes, and to its credit has done better than the paltry expectations that many had. It might just unfold that USCIS processes just enough cases, and Mr. CO does not have to trigger retrogression. Without retrogression, Mr. CO can use the following (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf):

enabling him to use QSP every quarter that does not see retrogression. The bad thing about retrogression is that he has to follow country quotas and that is bad for first 3 quarters of the fiscal year. Without retrogression, he can gently guide the cut off dates forward as a portion of the inventory gets adjudicated.

For their part EB2IC folks have to be patient with USCIS and not flood them with SRs once the processing starts taking more than 4 months.kd,

Actually, the more I read my post, the worse it appears to convey my thoughts.

As I am sure Teddy and Q would agree, getting to an end point is as much "gut feel" as anything, based on multiple factors. It then becomes difficult to justify it easily in any written form. It's a bit frustrating really, which is why I rarely post on the subject.

As for USCIS processing speed, I would disagree. In February, they have managed to approve far more EB2-I cases than any QSP could provide. Even being conservative, EB2-I alone received 4.5k approvals - then add EB2-C on to that. That level of approvals is not sustainable. In fact, it is not inconceivable DOS/USCIS may have blown the February allotment and used some of the March numbers. The law only talks about quarterly numbers, so that is not an issue. It may be that the numbers are "ahead of the curve" and some throttling back is required.

The dates must retrogress at some point to a date that can handle the number of visas available for FY2012. I agree that when that becomes necessary is a point for debate and differing opinions.

I don't think USCIS have the capability to throttle approvals with the level of finesse required. If the dates don't retrogress, then USCIS might just pick the low hanging fruit from ever later cases to meet the numbers.

In that sense, retrogression is a good thing, because it will force USCIS to adjudicate cases they feel are complicated, or don't generate a quick adjudication towards the ISOs targets. The sooner the better, once it is deemed necessary, so that the maximum time is available to adjudicate those cases. It will act as a focus for USCIS. If it doesn't happen, then people with earlier PDs are going to be left waiting, while later PDs are approved.

Even if the dates do retrogress, all approvals are still being made under the spillover laws, so I didn't quite understand your comment. It merely limits the timespan of PDs that USCIS has to choose from.

[qesehmk]

KD .... your definition of QSP is right. So we don't need to discuss that. The question is when do you take the call that QSP may be required?

Given that there was large EB2IC and EB2ROW backlog at teh start of the year, the point when demand fell short of supply wouldn't have arrived until at least December. But we saw movement from day 1. That's why I am saying this is different that usual QSP.

You need to think how this is going to play out. Think this way - Oct 1 2011 - what will CO do on this day? How about Oct 9th when he is close to publishing dates for Nov?

If there were going to be QSP then CO wouldn't know that until mid of Dec. The question is when do you take the call that this quarter I may let some numbers go unused? Because there was enough EB2IC and EB1 and EB2ROW backlog when 2012 FY started, CO could've simply used that backlog until he truly couldnt find qualified demand to meet the supply. But the fact us he didn't wait.

That's all i am referring to. Does this make sense?



Q, please allow me to explain once again. I think we have been through this a few times. The kind of QSP you described will happen only if the demand is known and is more than the quarterly quota - typically happens after retrogression. When Mr. CO sees the demand less than the quarterly quota, he allows visas to be granted with out regard to country quota, as long as the total visa allocation stays under quarterly quota - this is the new QSP. For this he may choose any date movement he think he needs to make it happen. So I disagree with your point about only Dec should see movement/approvals in case of QSP. More over, the date movement was to generate inventory only as clearly explained by Mr. CO. About your point that the date movement is larger than required is based on the assumption that USCIS will approve all cases in inventory and move in an orderly fashion. I am sure USCIS and Mr. CO have their statistics about how many cases to accept esp. as they know cases do not get approved in order nor all cases are approved within, say, 4 months. So they are hedging their bets to have max. number of approvable cases in the allotted time frame. Nothing wrong with that as they have no real idea about how the recession and the demand destruction - small as it might be eventually - may affect the filing rate.

I do not think we are entirely focused on what he will do next, but more on how may all of this play out. On the face of it, retrogression seems a possibility. But I presented the scenario where it may not happen. Unlikely, I know, but so was the inventory build up.

[vizcard]

Q - I'm going on a stream of consciousness here. I'm trying to get into COs head now.

************
Oct 2011 What do I really KNOW.
1. SOFAD will happen. Unsure how much. Historically around 30k.
2. USCIS takes approx 4 months to approve cases
3. The Backlog at the start of Oct is less than expected SOFAD.
4. Some historic approval % for 485s.
5. Potentially # of approved 140s.
6. He cannot waste visas

What don't i know -
1. Volume of applications expected coming in
2. % of DD.

Dammit. I dont have enough HARD FACTS to not move dates. If I follow the standard process of waiting for the summer to move CODs, then there's a high probability I would waste visas due to USCIS processing times. So maybe i need to figure out demand sooner. Hence the use of QSP and that too split on a monthly basis.

Nov 2011
I can wait till end of Dec BUT I still want the USCIS to keep cranking away. Those guys are pretty lazy anyway (ha ha). so I'm going to move it a few months and see what happens.

Dec 2011
Holy crap. Not enough applications have come in...move some more...heck move a lot more.

Jan 2012
The dumbasses from 2008 aren't applying fast enough. I still don't know enough. Let's move a big number in the Feb VB. maybe all 2008 will come in by then and the 2009 crowd will have better sense and apply earlier in the month.

Feb 2012
Phew. I finally feel somewhat comfortable but just to be really really comfortable, let me move it another few months. The economy was horrible in 2008/2009, so maybe the demand won't be as much.

************
How's that with some dramatization ?

[nishant2200]

Not a problem. Mention in EVL, all the positions held with time periods. Then explain current position with job duties n salary.


My PERM was filed in late 2010 for the position "Project Manager" even though I was Senior Developer.
(My employer used to file EB2 only for Manager and above. Since I was expecting a promotion in 2011 they filed EB2 projecting as Manager)

In 2011, when I got the promotion, I got the title of "Technical Manager". The job duties are same but title is different. So technically I was NEVER a "Project Manager".

Would that be a problem?

[aGCHopefull]

Thanks Viz, Q, Nishant and all for your kind help.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Don't know if this data will be helpful or not but posting it for Gurus and experts to take a peek. Remove the post if the links are not useful.

Application for Immigration Benefits

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/N-400%20and%20Application%20for%20Benefits/applications-for-benefits-2012-jan.pdf

I-485 applications at field offices (exclude EB-485 at NSC and TSC)

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_2011-dec.pdf

[eb2visa]

The original AC21-Portability Memo from USCIS

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/Archives%201998-2008/2005/ac21intrm122705.pdf

I have one question:

If we want to port from one employer to another employer, even though we have the EAD, we should have approved/pending h1b and the new employer should file for an H1B and then send the letter to USCIS about porting. is this correct?

Any one could you please explain how the porting works beyond 6 years in layman terms. Thanks in advance :)

[goforgreen]

... the dates can continue to stay at an irrational place more than our ability to speculate when they will retrogress :)

Q, Nice take on Buffets' quote :-) - The markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Excuse me if it was unintentional/coincidence.

[eb2visa]

Seems to be there is a good chart on AC21
http://ac21portability.com/scenarios.pdf


The original AC21-Portability Memo from USCIS

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/Archives%201998-2008/2005/ac21intrm122705.pdf

I have one question:

If we want to port from one employer to another employer, even though we have the EAD, we should have approved/pending h1b and the new employer should file for an H1B and then send the letter to USCIS about porting. is this correct?

Any one could you please explain how the porting works beyond 6 years in layman terms. Thanks in advance :)

[qesehmk]

:) :)

Isn't it!!

p.s. - But as far as the original author - i didn't know it was Buffett!


Q, Nice take on Buffets' quote :-) - The markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Excuse me if it was unintentional/coincidence.

[nostwal]

I dont see anyone. what is the username?


one more Jan filler got approval.....


http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/875517315/i-485-current-in-january-2012-gathering/page/last_page

[mrdeeds]

Q - I'm going on a stream of consciousness here. I'm trying to get into COs head now.

************
Oct 2011 What do I really KNOW.
1. SOFAD will happen. Unsure how much. Historically around 30k.
2. USCIS takes approx 4 months to approve cases
3. The Backlog at the start of Oct is less than expected SOFAD.
4. Some historic approval % for 485s.
5. Potentially # of approved 140s.
6. He cannot waste visas

What don't i know -
1. Volume of applications expected coming in
2. % of DD.

Dammit. I dont have enough HARD FACTS to not move dates. If I follow the standard process of waiting for the summer to move CODs, then there's a high probability I would waste visas due to USCIS processing times. So maybe i need to figure out demand sooner. Hence the use of QSP and that too split on a monthly basis.

Nov 2011
I can wait till end of Dec BUT I still want the USCIS to keep cranking away. Those guys are pretty lazy anyway (ha ha). so I'm going to move it a few months and see what happens.

Dec 2011
Holy crap. Not enough applications have come in...move some more...heck move a lot more.

Jan 2012
The dumbasses from 2008 aren't applying fast enough. I still don't know enough. Let's move a big number in the Feb VB. maybe all 2008 will come in by then and the 2009 crowd will have better sense and apply earlier in the month.

Feb 2012
Phew. I finally feel somewhat comfortable but just to be really really comfortable, let me move it another few months. The economy was horrible in 2008/2009, so maybe the demand won't be as much.

************
How's that with some dramatization ?

Vizcard, this is pretty good. Mind stepping into CO's shoes once again and thinking why he is issuing NVC notices going into 2011?

[qesehmk]

Viz

The oscar for dramatization goes to Viz (and CO in absentia)! What you are saying is essentially he moved it in anticipation (in other words without regards to actual demand supply at a point in time). Which is what I am saying.


Q - I'm going on a stream of consciousness here. I'm trying to get into COs head now.

************
Oct 2011 What do I really KNOW.
1. SOFAD will happen. Unsure how much. Historically around 30k.
2. USCIS takes approx 4 months to approve cases
3. The Backlog at the start of Oct is less than expected SOFAD.
4. Some historic approval % for 485s.
5. Potentially # of approved 140s.
6. He cannot waste visas

What don't i know -
1. Volume of applications expected coming in
2. % of DD.

Dammit. I dont have enough HARD FACTS to not move dates. If I follow the standard process of waiting for the summer to move CODs, then there's a high probability I would waste visas due to USCIS processing times. So maybe i need to figure out demand sooner. Hence the use of QSP and that too split on a monthly basis.

Nov 2011
I can wait till end of Dec BUT I still want the USCIS to keep cranking away. Those guys are pretty lazy anyway (ha ha). so I'm going to move it a few months and see what happens.

Dec 2011
Holy crap. Not enough applications have come in...move some more...heck move a lot more.

Jan 2012
The dumbasses from 2008 aren't applying fast enough. I still don't know enough. Let's move a big number in the Feb VB. maybe all 2008 will come in by then and the 2009 crowd will have better sense and apply earlier in the month.

Feb 2012
Phew. I finally feel somewhat comfortable but just to be really really comfortable, let me move it another few months. The economy was horrible in 2008/2009, so maybe the demand won't be as much.

************
How's that with some dramatization ?

[goforgreen]

:) :)

Isn't it!!

p.s. - But as far as the original author - i didn't know it was Buffett!

I googled and it is not Buffet. This was said by John Keynes of Keynasian Economics fame.

[qesehmk]

Thanks. That quote was actually unlike Buffett since he likes to be (and has the power to) stay through irrational markets while focusing on fundamentals (and arbitrages that mortals like us never see).
I googled and it is not Buffet. This was said by John Keynes of Keynasian Economics fame.

[vizcard]

Vizcard, this is pretty good. Mind stepping into CO's shoes once again and thinking why he is issuing NVC notices going into 2011?

Just as Q has postulated... he is doing it in anticipation of demand. Going in to mid-2011 in the next 12 months is not unreasonable especially if we get 30-35K of SOFAD this year.

[mrdeeds]

Just as Q has postulated... he is doing it in anticipation of demand. Going in to mid-2011 in the next 12 months is not unreasonable especially if we get 30-35K of SOFAD this year.

Thanks Viz. However, what I am reading people say is that the resting point expected is Q1 2008 in FY12. That leaves atleast half of 2008 and 2009 and 2010 to get to 2011. I think Q1 2008 takes the SOFAD you quoted into account. For DOS to be issuing notices into mid-2011 with the belief that those dates will be current in the next 12 months or so is pretty optimistic, don't you think? Even if we get similar SOFAD into FY13, do you think we will clear 2.5 years of apps in next 12 months or even 18 months if we take FY13 into account?

My point here is more of a conundrum. Unless CO is just shooting blind, he must see some data that makes him think that 2011 may be current in the next year..but the collective analysis here says that's just not reasonable. So what's the basis for his anticipation??

Further, if the resting point is indeed Q1 - mid 2008, it will be a 2007 like scenario whereby he would not need to move dates for a couple of years...unless there is a big DD..which we seem to not believe in a lot after the recent data.

[kd2008]

Thanks Viz. However, what I am reading people say is that the resting point expected is Q1 2008 in FY12. That leaves atleast half of 2008 and 2009 and 2010 to get to 2011. I think Q1 2008 takes the SOFAD you quoted into account. For DOS to be issuing notices into mid-2011 with the belief that those dates will be current in the next 12 months or so is pretty optimistic, don't you think? Even if we get similar SOFAD into FY13, do you think we will clear 2.5 years of apps in next 12 months or even 18 months if we take FY13 into account?

My point here is more of a conundrum. Unless CO is just shooting blind, he must see some data that makes him think that 2011 may be current in the next year..but the collective analysis here says that's just not reasonable. So what's the basis for his anticipation??

Further, if the resting point is indeed Q1 - mid 2008, it will be a 2007 like scenario whereby he would not need to move dates for a couple of years...unless there is a big DD..which we seem to not believe in a lot after the recent data.

Please try to understand that the date movement and the approvals are coupled only following a retrogression, and not during inventory build up. The mid 2008 date is for if and when a retrogression happens. As seen from the NVC notices upto June 2011, retrogression may not be the plan, or not needed depending on USCIS speed of processing. Retrogression is needed only if USCIS asks for more visas than available and not because it is sitting on a large pile of applications. Remember, even after July-2007 fiasco, the dates moved to Aug 2006 in Aug 2008 as there were not enough approvable cases because most were stuck in FBI checks. If you look at EB2ROW approvals on trackitt they are all over the place even for cases that were filed in the same month. Somewhat similar trend is expected for EB2IC in future.

[Mavrick]

Remember, even after July-2007 fiasco, the dates moved to Aug 2006 in Aug 2008 as there were not enough approvable cases because most were stuck in FBI checks.


If the above statement is true, I'm positive that there will be slow movement for next few months until everything gets sorted out. Meanwhile, USCIS might give GC's to applicants whose cases are crystal clear or so called low hanging fruit.

[Spectator]

Remember, even after July-2007 fiasco, the dates moved to Aug 2006 in Aug 2008 as there were not enough approvable cases because most were stuck in FBI checks.


If the above statement is true, I'm positive that there will be slow movement for next few months until everything gets sorted out. Meanwhile, USCIS might give GC's to applicants whose cases are crystal clear or so called low hanging fruit.That is an interesting observation and is probably why USCIS started pre-adjudicationg cases from September 2008 onwards.

Generally, the FBI problems have been resolved.

In September 2008, USCIS only reported 14.8k pre-adjudicated cases (I don't know in which categories).

The number rose steeply from then particularly from February 2009, reaching a maximum of 185.7k in September 2009.

Coincidentally ??, the first (rather inaccurate) USCIS Inventory was published in August 2009.

The pre adjudicated numbers stayed at around 180k until April 2010 and have fallen steadily since that date, with the exception of January 2011, when cases pre-adjudicated at Local Office were returned to TSC.

With the implementation of pre-adjudication, it is much more difficult for an August 2008 to reoccur.

A picture is worth a thousand words, they say:
237

[kd2008]

That is an interesting observation and is probably why USCIS started pre-adjudicationg cases from September 2008 onwards.

Generally, the FBI problems have been resolved.

In September 2008, USCIS only reported 14.8k pre-adjudicated cases (I don't know in which categories).

The number rose steeply from then particularly from February 2009, reaching a maximum of 185.7k in September 2009.

Coincidentally ??, the first (rather inaccurate) USCIS Inventory was published in August 2009.

The pre adjudicated numbers stayed at around 180k until April 2010 and have fallen steadily since that date, with the exception of January 2011, when cases pre-adjudicated at Local Office were returned to TSC.

With the implementation of pre-adjudication, it is much more difficult for an August 2008 to reoccur.

A picture is worth a thousand words, they say:
237

Spec, do you think that this pre-adjudication and clearing up of FBI checks forced Mr. CO retrogress dates as the demand started showing faster than available visa in later 2008? Absent that USCIS processing may have been hapzard but without retrogression.

I remember this post from last year, where you explained why dates won't go current:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2011&p=3824#post3824

As cases are adjudicated, a visa is immediately issued right now. If USCIS does not have additional resources - which I think is the case now, then I wonder would there be retrogression at all as a pile of cases won't just accumulate. Mr. CO may stall dates at best?

We have already seen that having a pile of cases in inventory means nothing to Mr. CO. As long as he thinks there are enough to use up annual quota. He has merrily added way more cases than 1 year need of inventory. What do you think?

[Kanmani]

Due to extensive backlog in FBI name check, there was a USCIS policy change happened during Feb 2008 , USCIS started approving cases including I-485's without FBI name check clearance, as long as I-485 has been pending for more than 180 days .

http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/name_check_faq-20feb08.pdf
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextchannel=68439c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a 1RCRD&vgnextoid=0255b3dfc7c58110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCRD

USCIS is currently approving cases with FBI finger printing check + IBIS check cleared. FBI will be doing name check in their own pace . If they find any hit in the name check they will revoke GC and physically remove the beneficiary.

[kd2008]

USCIS is currently approving cases with FBI finger printing check + IBIS check cleared. FBI will be doing name check in their own pace . If they find any hit in the name check they will revoke GC and physically remove the beneficiary.

Kanmani, according to this document,

www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/security_checks_42506.pdf


The FBI name check is totally different from the FBI fingerprint check. The records maintained in the FBI name check process consist of administrative, applicant, criminal, personnel and other files compiled by law enforcement. Initial responses to this check generally take about two weeks. In about 80 percent of the cases, no match is found. Of the remaining 20 percent, most are resolved within six months. Less than one percent of cases subject to an FBI name check remain pending longer than six months.

So I think FBI name checks are done before approval in 99% of cases.

[Spectator]

Spec, do you think that this pre-adjudication and clearing up of FBI checks forced Mr. CO retrogress dates as the demand started showing faster than available visa in later 2008? Absent that USCIS processing may have been hapzard but without retrogression.

I remember this post from last year, where you explained why dates won't go current:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29-2011&p=3824#post3824

As cases are adjudicated, a visa is immediately issued right now. If USCIS does not have additional resources - which I think is the case now, then I wonder would there be retrogression at all as a pile of cases won't just accumulate. Mr. CO may stall dates at best?

We have already seen that having a pile of cases in inventory means nothing to Mr. CO. As long as he thinks there are enough to use up annual quota. He has merrily added way more cases than 1 year need of inventory. What do you think?kd,

Here's the scenario I think happened in 2008.

The end of the FY was rapidly approaching and, without pre-adjudicated cases to show in the DOS Demand Data, CO got very worried about USCIS adjudicating enough cases to use up the available visas.

So he pushed the dates forward from 01APR04 to 01JUN06 in August 2008 and then 01AUG06 in September 2008 to ensure there were enough "low hanging fruit" that USCIS could adjudicate enough cases in time.

With the beginning of the new FY in October 2008, the dates were retrogressed to 01APR04 again as there was no longer the pressure of wasting visas. Without that factor, the dates would not have advanced. In addition, there was no quarterly spillover, so there were not that many monthly visas available from October 2008.

Possibly as a result of that and following some heated discussions, USCIS were forced to start or accelerate the pre-adjudication program.

Once a case is pre-adjudicated and the visa request has been made as part of the process, the demand becomes visible to DOS. Since a pre-adjudicated case can be fairly quickly approved when the PD becomes Current, that gave CO the visibility into the numbers likely from USCIS in the future for a given movement in the Cut Off Dates. I don't think it was a coincidence that this exercise was completed in time for the end of the next FY.

At the moment, CO is essentially "flying blind", since he no longer has any visibility into the demand from USCIS. He is not taking any chances on there being an insufficient number of cases that can be adjudicated.

Retrogression depends on whether USCIS processing can outstrip the supply of visas for a given period. There are statutory limits on the Quarter.

If USCIS continue to process cases at the pace they did in February, they will easily surpass the numbers available. Even by the most optimistic projections, there are not another 35k visas available to EB2-IC in the remaining 7 months - I think USCIS approved at least 5k in February. That's on the conservative basis of 410 Trackitt approvals @ 10% equating to c. 4k EB2-I approvals and EB2-C accounting for a further 1k. I suspect the number is a bit higher.

Any number of cases in the Inventory means very little to CO. He is interested in the number that translate to visa usage before the end of the FY. USCIS has a long and undistinguished history in slow processing and he doesn't fully trust them. He won't act until he sees results, which means the Demand appearing. To be fair to USCIS, they have processed cases remarkably quickly and could not have started approving them any earlier than they have done.

That is what he did with F2A, even when most of the cases were with DOS themselves.

As I mentioned before, I think USCIS is trying to send CO a message about their ability to process sufficient cases. Whether that is heard, or acted upon is another matter.

I may be way off base, but that is how I see the present situation. If I had to guess, I think he might stall the dates this time to give filers some extra time. If they move forward, he is even more conservative than I am! Maybe he doesn't want to repeat this scenario too often.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani, according to this document,

www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/security_checks_42506.pdf

So I think FBI name checks are done before approval in 99% of cases.

Kd, this document dated April 2006 is prior to the policy change .

[kd2008]

Spec, thank you explaining!

[kd2008]

Kd, this document dated April 2006 is prior to the policy change .

Thanks for pointing that out. It is interesting that GC could be revoked later. Rather scary.

[Spectator]

Due to extensive backlog in FBI name check, there was a USCIS policy change happened during Feb 2008 , USCIS started approving cases including I-485's without FBI name check clearance, as long as I-485 has been pending for more than 180 days .

http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/name_check_faq-20feb08.pdf
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextchannel=68439c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a 1RCRD&vgnextoid=0255b3dfc7c58110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCRD

USCIS is currently approving cases with FBI finger printing check + IBIS check cleared. FBI will be doing name check in their own pace . If they find any hit in the name check they will revoke GC and physically remove the beneficiary.Kanmani,

That policy only lasted a year and was superseded in February 2009 by this Memo (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/2009/national-security-adjudication-reporting-020909.pdf).

Currently, if a name check is still pending after 150 days, the case is referred to USCIS HQ, who will liaise with the FBI to determine the cause of the delay. After this, the Adjudicating Officer will be given case-specific instructions on how to proceed, including the possibility to approve the I-485 before the name check results have been completed, if it is deemed appropriate.

[soggadu]

guys i know it is wrong forum.... but just in case if anybody knows....

Need a travel companion for MomInlaw from HYD to new jersey during march... please let me know if you know of anyone...

[iamdeb]

This is Ron Gotcher reply regarding NVC Fee Bill Received (PD June 14 2011).

"The NVC gets a "heads up" from the Visa Office every month as to anticipated cutoff date movement six months out. The NVC then sends fee bills to all qualified applicants who have priority dates earlier than the estimate given by the Visa Office. This is not an exact science, but generally they are pretty close. "

I guess the PD should reach June 2011 by end of this year. Appreciate any comment on this.

[sweta.shetty]

Assuming PD will reach June 14, 2011 within a year, is based on predicating a huge demand destruction and less filings for i485, which by the numbers being computed doesnt sound to be true.. Not sure what is missed.

[kd2008]

Assuming PD will reach June 14, 2011 within a year, is based on predicating a huge demand destruction and less filings for i485, which by the numbers being computed doesnt sound to be true.. Not sure what is missed.

The inventory can be built up when and however Mr. CO deems fits. Yes, more applications may be accepted within a year. It does not mean visas will be issued within a year. The inventory accumulation is disconnected and separate from I-485 processing, adjudication and approval - approvals depend on visas available and speed of USCIS processing. Please read last few pages for more details.

[narendarrao]

This is Ron Gotcher reply regarding NVC Fee Bill Received (PD June 14 2011).

"The NVC gets a "heads up" from the Visa Office every month as to anticipated cutoff date movement six months out. The NVC then sends fee bills to all qualified applicants who have priority dates earlier than the estimate given by the Visa Office. This is not an exact science, but generally they are pretty close. "

I guess the PD should reach June 2011 by end of this year. Appreciate any comment on this.

Can someone help me understand what they mean by mentioning "Correct Time" in the following answer.

How Does the National Visa Center Fit into the U.S. Immigration Process?
After the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) approves your immigrant visa petition, the USCIS forwards your petition to the National Visa Center (NVC) in Portsmouth, NH for immigrant visa pre-processing at the correct time. Immediate relative categories, do not have yearly numerical limits. However, family preference and employment immigrant categories have numerical limits each year; and therefore, wait times are involved, which can be lengthy, for processing to be able begin, as explained below.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1309.html

[mrdeeds]

Please try to understand that the date movement and the approvals are coupled only following a retrogression, and not during inventory build up. The mid 2008 date is for if and when a retrogression happens. As seen from the NVC notices upto June 2011, retrogression may not be the plan, or not needed depending on USCIS speed of processing. Retrogression is needed only if USCIS asks for more visas than available and not because it is sitting on a large pile of applications. Remember, even after July-2007 fiasco, the dates moved to Aug 2006 in Aug 2008 as there were not enough approvable cases because most were stuck in FBI checks. If you look at EB2ROW approvals on trackitt they are all over the place even for cases that were filed in the same month. Somewhat similar trend is expected for EB2IC in future.

Thanks KD for the clear explanation and Spec and others for expanding on it!

KD, I get what you are saying but can you please hypothetically explain how retrogression might be avoided in today's scenario? I understand things may stall for a little while but I am unable to visualize a scenario where the USCIS processing moves in a manner that is in lock step with CO advancing / steadying the dates without retrogressing. It seems their approvals have picked up considerably recently. It seems only a matter of time when the demand shows up at VO.

[la_2002_ch]

Finally got the EAD and AP approval mails today!!! Exact 2 months after the RD.

huge step for my wife as now she can now put her Dental Degree from India to some use and apply to the "Select Dental Schools" which only take Permanent Residents/future Permanent Residents with atleast EAD approved into their International Dentist Programs.

For me now the wait for next 4 months so I can change jobs on the 181st day of RD. :)

Nopt able to post on the Post 485 Filing thread as for some reason its closed!

[mesan123]

yeap Post 485 Filing thread is closed dont know why ?

[kd2008]

Thanks KD for the clear explanation and Spec and others for expanding on it!

KD, I get what you are saying but can you please hypothetically explain how retrogression might be avoided in today's scenario? I understand things may stall for a little while but I am unable to visualize a scenario where the USCIS processing moves in a manner that is in lock step with CO advancing / steadying the dates without retrogressing. It seems their approvals have picked up considerably recently. It seems only a matter of time when the demand shows up at VO.

We do not have data to figure out exact scenarios. Picking up of approvals means nothing in this context that Spec and I were talking about - the approvals have to consume all available visas and then ask for some more. The visa demand has to exceed the quarterly allocation to trigger retrogression. We believe that this will happen eventually triggering retrogression if the processing pace is kept up. But USCIS has not been consistent with its processing - at least in the past. Just look at the slowdown for EB1 and EB2ROW - though it has picked up somewhat recently. So anything can happen. Hence what I was talking about was an unlikely, hypothetical scenario where USCIS processes just enough cases to consume visas but not exceed the quota which in turn results that there is no retrogression. Spec has said that it would be, in all eventuality, out of USCIS's ability to finesse processing in this manner.

[mrdeeds]

We do not have data to figure out exact scenarios. Picking up of approvals means nothing in this context that Spec and I were talking about - the approvals have to consume all available visas and then ask for some more. The visa demand has to exceed the quarterly allocation to trigger retrogression. We believe that this will happen eventually triggering retrogression if the processing pace is kept up. But USCIS has not been consistent with its processing - at least in the past. Just look at the slowdown for EB1 and EB2ROW - though it has picked up somewhat recently. So anything can happen. Hence what I was talking about was an unlikely, hypothetical scenario where USCIS processes just enough cases to consume visas but not exceed the quota which in turn results that there is no retrogression. Spec has said that it would be, in all eventuality, out of USCIS's ability to finesse processing in this manner.

Got it, Thanks for the response and reasoning!

[rtekkam]

Folks..a couple of questions...appreciate any responses

1. Is it FIFO once we apply for the EAD, AP and I-465?....Reading posts, i gather that is the case

2. Usually how is the FP appointment date given..meaning does it usually depend on the PD date OR are FP notices sent out on a FIFO basis?

3. Post FP..how long is the wait t get the EAD/AP?

The reason I ask this 'cos a friend of mine applied a week before I did..I got the FP notice ...and he did not...so was curious how this works.

my PD Date is 06/10/2009 and his PD is 11/7/2009 for India EB2

[leo4ever]

@rtekkam,

I think FP date depends a lot on SC and RD. NSC is slow with FP dates comapred to TSC. Do you know which SC is processign your friends appl?


Folks..a couple of questions...appreciate any responses

1. Is it FIFO once we apply for the EAD, AP and I-465?....Reading posts, i gather that is the case

2. Usually how is the FP appointment date given..meaning does it usually depend on the PD date OR are FP notices sent out on a FIFO basis?

3. Post FP..how long is the wait t get the EAD/AP?

The reason I ask this 'cos a friend of mine applied a week before I did..I got the FP notice ...and he did not...so was curious how this works.

my PD Date is 06/10/2009 and his PD is 11/7/2009 for India EB2

[Kanmani]

Folks..a couple of questions...appreciate any responses

1. Is it FIFO once we apply for the EAD, AP and I-465?....Reading posts, i gather that is the case

2. Usually how is the FP appointment date given..meaning does it usually depend on the PD date OR are FP notices sent out on a FIFO basis?

3. Post FP..how long is the wait t get the EAD/AP?

The reason I ask this 'cos a friend of mine applied a week before I did..I got the FP notice ...and he did not...so was curious how this works.

my PD Date is 06/10/2009 and his PD is 11/7/2009

FP appointments depend on combination of factors like I-1485 receipt date, availability of appointment slot at nearest ASC, filing at TSC/NSC etc . Approval takes atleast 60 to 90 days from the RD of EAD/AP

Did you both file at same service centre?
You guys live in same zip code ?

[rtekkam]

FP appointments depend on combination of factors like I-1485 receipt date, availability of appointment slot at nearest ASC, filing at TSC/NSC etc . Approval takes atleast 60 to 90 days from the RD of EAD/AP

Did you both file at same service centre?
You guys live in same zip code ?

Ok...receipt dates of mine were a week after his...same Svs Center TSC..only difference is he's from the DC area and mine is from the Phila area. Just was wondering if cases like mine could be considered "low lying fruit"...being a Physician and friend in IT

[bieber]

Ok...receipt dates of mine were a week after his...same Svs Center TSC..only difference is he's from the DC area and mine is from the Phila area. Just was wondering if cases like mine could be considered "low lying fruit"...being a Physician and friend in IT
May be the ASC in DC area is busier than the one near you, I think LLF could be the case too, regarless if your FP is done you can be in LLF group but sending the notice out itself based on LLF is kind of stretch

[srimurthy]

interesting and my case is the same with wife on the same background. And after going through all the options gave up the dental school option and looking for something in life sciences area and waiting to file for EAD to take next steps.

Finally got the EAD and AP approval mails today!!! Exact 2 months after the RD.

huge step for my wife as now she can now put her Dental Degree from India to some use and apply to the "Select Dental Schools" which only take Permanent Residents/future Permanent Residents with atleast EAD approved into their International Dentist Programs.

For me now the wait for next 4 months so I can change jobs on the 181st day of RD. :)

Nopt able to post on the Post 485 Filing thread as for some reason its closed!

[rtekkam]

May be the ASC in DC area is busier than the one near you, I think LLF could be the case too, regarless if your FP is done you can be in LLF group but sending the notice out itself based on LLF is kind of stretch


Thanks!..its true...could be a stretch based on the FP notice...should probably not read too much into this. Thanks guys!

[imdeng]

Kanmani - based on Trackitt data, approval time for EAD/AP seems to have sped up at least for TSC. I think, for TSC, 30-50 days from RD is a good estimate while for NSC it is 45-65 days. Of course there are a few outliers but most of the cases seem to fit in that window.

FP appointments depend on combination of factors like I-1485 receipt date, availability of appointment slot at nearest ASC, filing at TSC/NSC etc . Approval takes atleast 60 to 90 days from the RD of EAD/AP

Did you both file at same service centre?
You guys live in same zip code ?

[la_2002_ch]

interesting and my case is the same with wife on the same background. And after going through all the options gave up the dental school option and looking for something in life sciences area and waiting to file for EAD to take next steps.

Well ours is one last try to a couple of schools who prefer only GC holders or applicants whose GC processing is at the very last stage. Hoping something good comes out of it. Otherwise, she is also searching the alternate areas. Being myself in the IT field, when I married a dentist I had never thought my career moves will jeopardize hers. :(

[bieber]

I am the master of my fate. I am the captain of my soul
In our case, CO could be clint eastwood? :D

[kd2008]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Factsheet_Febr_2012.pdf

PERM factsheet as of 03/05/12.

Approvals in Feb = 2000

It is for Feb 2012 but it says Jan inside. In addition, till Jan 12,350 were approved. So if in Feb 2012, 2000 applications were approved then FYTD 2012 should move to 14,350 but it has moved only to 13,640. Some strange math.

[idiotic]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Factsheet_Febr_2012.pdf

PERM factsheet as of 03/05/12.

Approvals in Feb = 2000

It is for Feb 2012 but it says Jan inside. In addition, till Jan 12,350 were approved. So if in Feb 2012, 2000 applications were approved then FYTD 2012 should move to 14,350 but it has moved only to 13,640. Some strange math.

The footnote says the data is only a snapshot and should not be used for trending analysis. Just my 2 cents.

[Spectator]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Factsheet_Febr_2012.pdf

PERM factsheet as of 03/05/12.

Approvals in Feb = 2000

It is for Feb 2012 but it says Jan inside. In addition, till Jan 12,350 were approved. So if in Feb 2012, 2000 applications were approved then FYTD 2012 should move to 14,350 but it has moved only to 13,640. Some strange math.kd,

Thanks for posting. I agree the figures don't make any sense.

With the caveat that the figures aren't truly accurate, I did notice the number of PERM applications received has increased from 17,700 in the mid Jan report to 24,720 in the early Feb report - a movement of 7k. Total applications processed only rose by 4.8k.

Essentially, none of those were adjudicated in Q1 (well, 705 to be precise) due to the 3-4 month processing time.

[veni001]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Factsheet_Febr_2012.pdf

PERM factsheet as of 03/05/12.

Approvals in Feb = 2000

It is for Feb 2012 but it says Jan inside. In addition, till Jan 12,350 were approved. So if in Feb 2012, 2000 applications were approved then FYTD 2012 should move to 14,350 but it has moved only to 13,640. Some strange math.


kd,

Thanks for posting. I agree the figures don't make any sense.

With the caveat that the figures aren't truly accurate, I did notice the number of PERM applications received has increased from 17,700 in the mid Jan report to 24,720 in the early Feb report - a movement of 7k. Total applications processed only rose by 4.8k.

Essentially, none of those were adjudicated in Q1 (well, 705 to be precise) due to the 3-4 month processing time.

In-addition,

Denied & Withdrawn numbers(Month/FYTD2012) also doesn't make sense, when compared to previous month's report!

[rasknorr]

In-addition,

Denied & Withdrawn numbers(Month/FYTD2012) also doesn't make sense, when compared to previous month's report!

seems the data is not correct then.

[meetasn]

I need your suggestions on my case.

My PD : 22 Apr 2008, Serivce Center : NSC
Completed my 6 years in H1, got H1 extension based on I-140 until 03/16/2012.
Now EAD cards on 03/05/2012,which aslo serves as AP. Ap is also approved
FP done on 03/06/2012.
My company won't bear expenses, I need to bear the expenses for H1 renewals.
Can I stay on EAD or need to apply for extension?
My Lawyer is behind me for H1 extension. Please suggest.

[srimurthy]

What's your PD?
And also based on the knowledge gained here it is wise to maintain H1 till GC is in Hand. Makes more sense and gives more comfort.


I need your suggestions on my case.
I & My wife got EAD cards on 03/05/2012, which aslo serves as AP. Ap is also approved.
My H1 is Expiring on 03/16/2012. FP done on 03/06/2012.
My company won't bear expenses, I need to bear the expenses for H1 renewals.
Can I stay on EAD or need to apply for extension?
My Lawyer is behind me for H1 extension. Please suggest.

[meetasn]

I need your suggestions on my case.

My PD : 22 Apr 2008, Serivce Center : NSC
Completed my 6 years in H1, got H1 extension based on I-140 until 03/16/2012.
Now EAD cards on 03/05/2012,which aslo serves as AP. Ap is also approved
FP done on 03/06/2012.
My company won't bear expenses, I need to bear the expenses for H1 renewals.
Can I stay on EAD or need to apply for extension?
My Lawyer is behind me for H1 extension. Please suggest.

[ismile]

In my opinion, as a safety net apply for H1-extn, If your H1 is still under 6 year limit .

[harsha131]

I would as the extension will be for another 3years and this would be one last time before the GC approval.
I applied for extension in May 2011 and got 3year extension, even though I was completing my 6yr H1 by Apr 2012.


I need your suggestions on my case.

My PD : 22 Apr 2008, Serivce Center : NSC
Completed my 6 years in H1, got H1 extension based on I-140 until 03/16/2012.
Now EAD cards on 03/05/2012,which aslo serves as AP. Ap is also approved
FP done on 03/06/2012.
My company won't bear expenses, I need to bear the expenses for H1 renewals.
Can I stay on EAD or need to apply for extension?
My Lawyer is behind me for H1 extension. Please suggest.

[bangaloreboy]

As the wait for Apr VB intensifies...
out of the past 7 Apr-VBs, the VB was released before Mar 10th only twice...
Hope VB is released by this friday this time...
---VB-----Release Date
Apr--2012 ??-Mar-12
Apr--2011 09-Mar-11
Apr--2010 15-Mar-10
Apr--2009 09-Mar-09
Apr--2008 14-Mar-08
Apr--2007 13-Mar-07
Apr--2006 13-Mar-06
Apr--2005 14-Mar-05

[vizcard]

As the wait for Apr VB intensifies...
out of the past 7 Apr-VBs, the VB was released before Mar 10th only twice...
Hope VB is released by this friday this time...
---VB-----Release Date
Apr--2012 ??-Mar-12
Apr--2011 09-Mar-11
Apr--2010 15-Mar-10
Apr--2009 09-Mar-09
Apr--2008 14-Mar-08
Apr--2007 13-Mar-07
Apr--2006 13-Mar-06
Apr--2005 14-Mar-05

The only thing getting announced today is the ipad 3

[ontheedge]

The only thing getting announced today is the ipad 3

Lol...or the Apple TV? Nah...it will be the iPad 3/HD

[feedmyback]

While applying for H1 extension is always advised, the duration of extension that you can get might vary. I came to know about this very recently from the latest Murthy bulletin. As per that bulletin, as long as your priority date is current when you are applying for extension, you will only get 1 year extension and not 3. Here is the link to the Murthy bulletin which talks about it.

http://murthy.com/bulletin.html

So in the case of OP what I understand is, as his PD is still current, he will get only a 1 year extension. Any one with more knowledge on this aspect, please chip in.


I would as the extension will be for another 3years and this would be one last time before the GC approval.
I applied for extension in May 2011 and got 3year extension, even though I was completing my 6yr H1 by Apr 2012.

[kuku82]

....and release of the great Peyton Manning from Colts!


The only thing getting announced today is the ipad 3

[mrdeeds]

I need your suggestions on my case.

My company won't bear expenses, I need to bear the expenses for H1 renewals.
Can I stay on EAD or need to apply for extension?
My Lawyer is behind me for H1 extension. Please suggest.

You probably already know this but the company is required by law to pay certain H1B expenses. You CANNOT pay it. Unless you have that figured out, be mindful of that and its potential impact on GC.

[ismile]

Yes, you are right, If the PD is current then only 1 year Extn is granted at a time until a final decision is made.

http://imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2009/2009-3/EAD_vs_H1B.html

In the context to above link, post six year H1 stay is no good following I-485 denial.



While applying for H1 extension is always advised, the duration of extension that you can get might vary. I came to know about this very recently from the latest Murthy bulletin. As per that bulletin, as long as your priority date is current when you are applying for extension, you will only get 1 year extension and not 3. Here is the link to the Murthy bulletin which talks about it.

http://murthy.com/bulletin.html

So in the case of OP what I understand is, as his PD is still current, he will get only a 1 year extension. Any one with more knowledge on this aspect, please chip in.

[bangaloreboy]

Lol...that was a good one...

....and release of the great Peyton Manning from Colts!

[harsha131]

Thanks for correcting....useful info


While applying for H1 extension is always advised, the duration of extension that you can get might vary. I came to know about this very recently from the latest Murthy bulletin. As per that bulletin, as long as your priority date is current when you are applying for extension, you will only get 1 year extension and not 3. Here is the link to the Murthy bulletin which talks about it.

http://murthy.com/bulletin.html

So in the case of OP what I understand is, as his PD is still current, he will get only a 1 year extension. Any one with more knowledge on this aspect, please chip in.

[tatikonda]

I found this link on vaccinations requirements from USCIS.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem...

From the above link - found more precise information on vaccinations during pregnancy

http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/preg-guide.htm

Also Gurus,

Please share your knowledge on this issue.
If vaccinations are not taking due to pregnancy and fill a blanket form,
What will happen, will USCIS agrees it and approves EAD/AP or just wait until candidate can take vaccinations and only then approves EAD/AP.

Please advise !!


Regards
Tatikonda

[vizcard]

Lol...that was a good one...

Colts are in "luck"..new management, aging QB (even if it is Peyton) and they get the #1 pick in the draft.

[vizcard]

You probably already know this but the company is required by law to pay certain H1B expenses. You CANNOT pay it. Unless you have that figured out, be mindful of that and its potential impact on GC.

Can you elaborate on this? Link ? My wife had to pay back her H1 expenses. So if this is indeed true, then maybe she can recoup some of that.

[skpanda]

The company is responsible for all H1 Expenses. If you report to DOL, that your employer charged you H1B expenses, they will be in lot of trouble. I hear that some desi consulting companies had to shut shop because of this. Just shoot an email to your employer mentioning this and they will give the money back in no time....




Can you elaborate on this? Link ? My wife had to pay back her H1 expenses. So if this is indeed true, then maybe she can recoup some of that.

[thatsnice]

OFF TOPIC - Automatic Visa Revalidation

[mesan123]

That is all right. he just got his EAD....messing with your employer at last stage and taking the hassles is one big thing. i understand the employer should pay, but these days again employers are not happy to apply for many who already got ead's ...as they also know the employees wont be with them for long.......with desi employers thatz the way it is...

we also need to keep in mind... not talking about anyone in person....this is what most of employees agree with there employees in consulting world( where they ask for 70/30 or 75/25 or 80/20 or 85/15 basis or these days 90/20 ) where they are paid on percentage basis, the employee agrees most of the time, with higher percentage you take employer wont bare any expenses or some expenses....




The company is responsible for all H1 Expenses. If you report to DOL, that your employer charged you H1B expenses, they will be in lot of trouble. I hear that some desi consulting companies had to shut shop because of this. Just shoot an email to your employer mentioning this and they will give the money back in no time....

[thatsnice]

OFF TOPIC - Automatic Visa Revalidation
I am in strange situation - came on H1B back in 2006, working in EVL model since then - PD is current in March 2012. One of my employer (had many) did not file LCA when I moved from MA to NJ - this was more than 180 days. Attorney is advising me to go out and come back before filingin I-485. He is asking me to use AVR rule to come back.

I'm bit confused. I found on many threds that they normally do not give new I-94 - will returning on AVR be considered as lawful entry and will that reset my so called forced unauthorized work for AOS purposes?

[vizcard]

That is all right. he just got his EAD....messing with your employer at last stage and taking the hassles is one big thing. i understand the employer should pay, but these days again employers are not happy to apply for many who already got ead's ...as they also know the employees wont be with them for long.......with desi employers thatz the way it is...

we also need to keep in mind... not talking about anyone in person....this is what most of employees agree with there employees in consulting world( where they ask for 70/30 or 75/25 or 80/20 or 85/15 basis or these days 90/20 ) where they are paid on percentage basis, the employee agrees most of the time, with higher percentage you take employer wont bare any expenses or some expenses....

Its not for me. I'm the primary and I'm all set. This is my wife's employer. Ofcourse, it may be not worth the hassle but I wanted to get the info. I also want to see what paperwork she signed when she took the job.

[mesan123]

Vizcard was not meaning anyone....just was trying to explain how the consulting is that all :)


Its not for me. I'm the primary and I'm all set. This is my wife's employer. Ofcourse, it may be not worth the hassle but I wanted to get the info. I also want to see what paperwork she signed when she took the job.

[usernameisnotvalid]

That is true for H1b fees - all those gov. fees and taxes but employer can recoup attorney fees etc. Ours is a big company and before filing any extension we do receive a letter through mail (so, it is perfectly legal)from HR which we need to sign. It is basically an H1 pay back letter.


The company is responsible for all H1 Expenses. If you report to DOL, that your employer charged you H1B expenses, they will be in lot of trouble. I hear that some desi consulting companies had to shut shop because of this. Just shoot an email to your employer mentioning this and they will give the money back in no time....

[usernameisnotvalid]

My situation was little different but I did the same thing. I went to Canada by car for one day. The officer at the check-post saw my passport but did not take I-94. I knew it that this was very important, So I told him to take because I need new I-94 on entry. That's it. He took it and when I came back next day, I got new I-94 but had to go through all finger printing and other stuff. Make sure you carry as many documents with you as possible :-)


OFF TOPIC - Automatic Visa Revalidation
I am in strange situation - came on H1B back in 2006, working in EVL model since then - PD is current in March 2012. One of my employer (had many) did not file LCA when I moved from MA to NJ - this was more than 180 days. Attorney is advising me to go out and come back before filingin I-485. He is asking me to use AVR rule to come back.

I'm bit confused. I found on many threds that they normally do not give new I-94 - will returning on AVR be considered as lawful entry and will that reset my so called forced unauthorized work for AOS purposes?

[meetasn]

I completed 6 years in USA. So My h1 Extension will be based on AOS?
If I apply My H1B normal process now(Before my h1 Expiry(03/16/2012) it will take at least 3- 5 months for approvals? Based on the trend 2 Jan fillers already are getting GC's(My PD is 22 April 2008).
If GC is approved my h1 will be rejected, because, I have GC approved
If GC is not approved, then also my H1b will be rejected, since H1B is based on I-140(completed 6 years stay in US).
Only thing I can do is apply H1B in premium or live on EAD? Please suggest.

[mrdeeds]

Can you elaborate on this? Link ? My wife had to pay back her H1 expenses. So if this is indeed true, then maybe she can recoup some of that.

Viz see http://www.murthy.com/h1bfaqs.html#22

Question 22.

If your wife signed an agreement agreeing to repay any expenses in lieu of staying x number of years, I am not sure about the legality / applicability of the above. My guess is that the company may have a right there to recover the costs but still not completely sure.

[vizcard]

Viz see http://www.murthy.com/h1bfaqs.html#22

Question 22.

If your wife signed an agreement agreeing to repay any expenses in lieu of staying x number of years, I am not sure about the legality / applicability of the above. My guess is that the company may have a right there to recover the costs but still not completely sure.

It wasn't the "stay for x yrs" deal.

It was " it costs x all inclusive. We will deduct y from every paycheck until its paid off. "

[TeddyKoochu]

Demand data for April bulletin is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Looks like there will be more forward movement to generate demand. Good luck to everyone for the bulletin.

[kd2008]

Thanks, Teddy.

As long as there is no retrogression or rapid processing by USCIS (as in many times the current processing speed), the demand data will look like this each month. The movement if any will still be at Mr. CO's discretion I guess.

[tackle]

Thanks, Teddy.

As long as there is no retrogression or rapid processing by USCIS (as in many times the current processing speed), the demand data will look like this each month. The movement if any will still be at Mr. CO's discretion I guess.

I think you are right. Looks like EB2-I will be current soon.

[mrdeeds]

It wasn't the "stay for x yrs" deal.

It was " it costs x all inclusive. We will deduct y from every paycheck until its paid off. "

Then you have a case to recover atleast the fees referenced in the murthy faq above imo. And I wouldn't phrase it as 'recovering' but put it as 'there is some misuderstanding. Legally, we cannot.....and let's not jeopardize your status or ours'.

[gc_usa]

EB2 IC will be current in APRIL 2012. :) Go enjoy ! My gut feeling.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

Totally agree. With this kind of demand data - there has to be a forward movement.
Demand data for April bulletin is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Looks like there will be more forward movement to generate demand. Good luck to everyone for the bulletin.

[mesan123]

Q , Teddy or other Guru's

how long do you predict the moment can be ( i know this guess would be only based on gut feeling not based on the inventory, as the data is not complete). but ur guesses will be reasonable than many of us... :) ....


Teddy

Totally agree. With this kind of demand data - there has to be a forward movement.

[raj888]

Teddy

Totally agree. With this kind of demand data - there has to be a forward movement.

Pls see the explanation by Spec as to why this demand data does not indicate forward movement or retrogression!

======================
What Does the Demand Data represent?

I see lots of misconceptions about what the Demand Data shows.

There are many comments that say that looking at the Demand Data will give a guide to how much the Visa Bulletin will progress or whether retrogression is likely.

If you understand what the Demand Data is, you will see that neither is possible at the moment.

The figures in the Demand Data represent the number of documentarily qualified cases where a visa request has been made, but the visa has not yet been allocated. It is just a Pending file for cases where a visa request has not, or cannot, be actioned.

Let's understand when a case becomes documentarily qualified, when a visa is requested, and when it is allocated.

(a) For Consular Processed cases, a case becomes documentarily qualified when NVC requests a visa after Packet 4 information has been received and the interview date is set.

Between that time and when, the interview actually takes place, the visa is pending and adds one to the Demand Data total.

If the interview is successful, then the visa is consumed. If the interview is not successful, it is returned to the pool. In both cases, the Demand Data total is reduced by one.

(b) For AOS cases, a case becomes documentarily qualified when USCIS adjudicate and approve the I-485 case. At this point they request a visa from DOS.

Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated, because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data and the total rises by one.

If the PD is Current, which it is for all EB2-IC I-485 cases in the system at the moment, the visa is allocated and used immediately. The Demand Data total remains unchanged.

For all the new applications that USCIS have received since October 2011, with an average processing time of 4-6 months, virtually none will have reached the stage of being adjudicated. For those few that have (such as Veni's), the visa request was granted immediately because the PD was Current, leaving the Demand Data total unchanged.


Only when Cut Off Dates retrogress can the Demand Data figures for EB2-IC increase.

In this situation, if USCIS request a visa for a case with a PD that is no longer Current, then it will be added to the Demand Data total.

Possibly, the other way that the Demand Data might increase, is if DOS run out of visas for EB2-IC under Quarterly Spillover and stop allocating them.

The few cases shown in the Demand Data at present almost certainly represent Consular Processed cases, where the visa has been pre-allocated, but an interview has not yet taken place.

Look at EB2-ROW. It has always been Current. The maximum amount I have seen from a quick look at past Demand Data is the 130 in the latest version.

When the Demand Data for March 2012 is published, don't expect it to be much different from the February 2012 one. If the dates don't retrogress in the March VB, the April one won't be either.
===========================

[nishant2200]

Demand data for April bulletin is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Looks like there will be more forward movement to generate demand. Good luck to everyone for the bulletin.

But also unless there is retrogression, demand would not accumulate in this report. I think, correct me if wrong.

[suninphx]

Demand data for April bulletin is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Looks like there will be more forward movement to generate demand. Good luck to everyone for the bulletin.

I wonder why they even bother to publish this?

[skpanda]

I think u r forgetting that EB3 demand data is also in the document.


I wonder why they even bother to publish this?

[vishnu]

i think it gives them some sort of legitimacy though to move dates?

[mrdeeds]

So re-reading Spec's explanation above and looking at the demand data published over the last couple of months, is it safe to say that the demand data mostly reflects only the CP cases whose interview date has been set but not been conducted yet. In essence, the quota reserved for the interviewees?

[TeddyKoochu]

But also unless there is retrogression, demand would not accumulate in this report. I think, correct me if wrong.

It should be the other way if demand accumulates in the report then we can expect retrogression.


Thanks, Teddy.

As long as there is no retrogression or rapid processing by USCIS (as in many times the current processing speed), the demand data will look like this each month. The movement if any will still be at Mr. CO's discretion I guess.

USCIS processing rate is the key it has to be in the range of the monthly available numbers. Looks like right now they are doing an optimum job and DOS will continue to give them more work by moving dates forward.

[tackle]

tackle, your turn hasn't come yet? Did you contact them?

I called USCIS this morning (this is the first time I tried calling) and all they said was that TSC is processing applications from April and that I'll need to wait. I asked if I could get any information on background-check and was said "no". I didn't bother asking them to transfer me to L2. From the way things are looking, I don't think there'll be any change to our application status anytime soon. I just hope they still have our applications and did not "misplace" them.

[Spectator]

But also unless there is retrogression, demand would not accumulate in this report. I think, correct me if wrong.nishant,

That is exactly correct. I tried to explain it previously (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?649-What-Does-the-Demand-Data-Represent).

The Demand Data is exactly as I would expect it, given that the Cut Off Date is still Current for all possible EB2-IC AOS cases which USCIS might adjudicate.

The Demand Data will become useful for EB2 after retrogression, since it will give some idea of how quickly USCIS are pre-adjudicating cases after the new Cut Off Date and the numbers involved. Until then, it is still very useful to follow EB3, where all cases are retrogressed.

[nishant2200]

That's a very valid reasoning, but it assumes that DOS has a hard limit internally set on the visa issuing system, meaning current date period does not mean infinity.

So now, one can say retro shud not happen. Worst case those who are current shud remain so, best case CO discretion how much to move.

If above is true. DD can be either ways, I am not totally convinced. It does seem reasonable though that DOS have facility to set limits on numbers in their issuing software.

It should be the other way if demand accumulates in the report then we can expect retrogression.



USCIS processing rate is the key it has to be in the range of the monthly available numbers. Looks like right now they are doing an optimum job and DOS will continue to give them more work by moving dates forward.

[suninphx]

I think u r forgetting that EB3 demand data is also in the document.

Ya missed that. My bad.

[Spectator]

It should be the other way if demand accumulates in the report then we can expect retrogression.Teddy,

Demand from AOS cases cannot accumulate in the report as long as the Cut Off Dates remain Current for any EB2-IC case USCIS might adjudicate. The case only becomes documentarily qualified at the point of approval. In that case the visa is issued and consumed immediately, never hitting the Demand Data.

[kd2008]

USCIS processing rate is the key it has to be in the range of the monthly available numbers. Looks like right now they are doing an optimum job and DOS will continue to give them more work by moving dates forward.

That is my conspiracy theory, Teddy. Any new movement by Mr. CO in the bulletin released this month = the visa consumption in the past month.

This will continue as long as there are visas available.

[vishnu]

So a good Demand Data (like today) implies 1) vast majority (if not all) of the last few month's I-485s still haven't hit pre-approval stage. 2) Visa numbers still exisit

Is this fair?

[pdfeb09]

That is my conspiracy theory, Teddy. Any new movement by Mr. CO in the bulletin released this month = the visa consumption in the past month.

This will continue as long as there are visas available.

This implies CO knows how many applications they will get in a given movement period. I don't think that is possible. I like your theory however.

[nellore]

I know this is not the correct place for this question. I will delete it in a day.
If my PD becomes current in this bulletin and if I file for my H-1B renewal next week in premium prcessing, will I still get 3 year or will they give me 1 year as dates are current effective next month?
Thanks.

[kd2008]

Spec, What happens when DOS runs out of numbers for a given period. In that case, even if the dates are current in a given period of time, DOS may not be able to allocate VISAS and the DD will start accumulating numbers causing DOS to retrogress.
Please correct me if I am wrong.

That is going to be interesting. Typically they may run out of visas at the quarter end. It seems that it did not happen in the Dec-Jan transition. Let us see what happens at the March-Apr transition. If we see a sudden drop in approvals at March end then yes, the quarterly numbers were exhausted and we will see an accumulation in the next month's demand data for May bulletin.

[vizcard]

So a good Demand Data (like today) implies 1) vast majority (if not all) of the last few month's I-485s still haven't hit pre-approval stage. 2) Visa numbers still exisit

Is this fair?

Yes. Although, I wouldn't call it "pre-approval stage". It is more in the "approval stage". Just haven't been adjudicated for a variety of reasons (e.g., FP pending, RFEs, background checks, etc.)

[kd2008]

I know this is not the correct place for this question. I will delete it in a day.
If my PD becomes current in this bulletin and if I file for my H-1B renewal next week in premium prcessing, will I still get 3 year or will they give me 1 year as dates are current effective next month?
Thanks.

If the H1-B extension is beyond 6 years and at the time of adjudication of H1-B, there is an I-485 pending against your name, then you will get an 1 yr extension. If the I-485 hasn't been filed at the time of adjudication of H1-B, then the extension will be for 3 yrs. I am not an expert. So please wait for what others have to say.

[mesan123]

ANother Jan filer Greened

PD: 28 MAR 2008
RD: 4 JAN 2012
ND: 6 JAN 2012
EAD/AP received: 23 FEB 2012
Fingerprints: 10 FEB 2012
ASC Location: Louisville, KY
I485 CPO: 7 MAR 2012
I485 Decision email: 7 MAR 2012


http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/875517315/i-485-current-in-january-2012-gathering/page/last_page
I dont think as of now atleast visa numbers are done ..... :)

[pdfeb09]

That is going to be interesting. Typically they may run out of visas at the quarter end. It seems that it did not happen in the Dec-Jan transition. Let us see what happens at the March-Apr transition. If we see a sudden drop in approvals at March end then yes, the quarterly numbers were exhausted and we will see an accumulation in the next month's demand data for May bulletin.

As Teddy points out, USCIS processing speed is the key to all this. If USCIS can consume more visas than available in a given quarter, retrogression will set in. Not otherwise...

[mesan123]

One more Jan Filer

485 card received: waiting
485 approved on: 3/7/2012
EAD/AP combo card received: 3/2/12
EAD/AP approved on: 2/26/2012
FP completed: 2/1/2012
Early Walk-in: Yes
Original ASC: Elizabeth
Fingerprinted ASC: Long Island City, NY (because its near to my office)
ND: 01/10/2012
RD: 01/12/2012
PD: 09/16/2008

[nellore]

H-1B extension is beyond 6 years. I would not have filed I-485 as dates are current in this bulletion (but effectively from 1st of April). So, I thought about this and am going to file my extension in premium so that i can get an approval before my date is effectively current. But still i ahd the doubt that the dates are published to be current..so?

[Kanmani]

Nearly 8K+ Eb2IC backlog was cleared within the 2012 Q1 quota , with this Dos could have ran out of Visa numbers . If this is true then they are going on approving cases by stealing numbers from Q2 . My belief is there should be some bending of rules happened with a mutual agreement between USCIS and Dos.

Note: I still believe 8k approved from 2011 quota until proven wrong.Spillover numbers are otherwise unused numbers. How could Spillover happen in Day 1 of the fiscal year ? If we donate used clothes, do we donate them right away coming out from an apparel store?

[kd2008]

ANother Jan filer Greened

PD: 28 MAR 2008
RD: 4 JAN 2012
ND: 6 JAN 2012
EAD/AP received: 23 FEB 2012
Fingerprints: 10 FEB 2012
ASC Location: Louisville, KY
I485 CPO: 7 MAR 2012
I485 Decision email: 7 MAR 2012


http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/875517315/i-485-current-in-january-2012-gathering/page/last_page
I dont think as of now atleast visa numbers are done ..... :)

That user is http://www.trackitt.com/member/GSingh3422

Another Jan filer, http://www.trackitt.com/member/pinky032008 got approved. Read his/her post.

http://www.trackitt.com/member/niranjanvemuri

http://www.trackitt.com/member/igreened

Above two were also approved. Both are NSC and Jan filers.

[mesan123]

Both the ones i posted were those 2 guys....based on this i assume still the visa numbers are not done, as they were approved yesterday....


That user is http://www.trackitt.com/member/GSingh3422

Another Jan filer, http://www.trackitt.com/member/pinky032008 got approved. Read his/her post.

[kd2008]

Both the ones i posted were those 2 guys....based on this i assume still the visa numbers are not done, as they were approved yesterday....

We are typing at the same time. I am going to stop and let you post. :)

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Demand from AOS cases cannot accumulate in the report as long as the Cut Off Dates remain Current for any EB2-IC case USCIS might adjudicate. The case only becomes documentarily qualified at the point of approval. In that case the visa is issued and consumed immediately, never hitting the Demand Data.

Spec, please correct my understanding from the following from your posting in facts and data. Thanks for documenting for everyone's benefit.

"Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated, because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data and the total rises by one."

I believe this should also include the scenario that if USCIS is able to adjudicate more applications than the allocated numbers by DOS even if the dates are current then also the numbers should show up. Now if USCIS has no monthly circuit breakers then the approvals will only stop when the annual limits are hit. Right now Nov and Dec filers are being approved consistently even though significant number of people in these groups are still pending / waiting.

Demand data should be qualified but unsatisfied or unsatiated demand assuming that there is a monthly limit or circuit breaker. However if it’s just in the case when PD is not current then this document is truly redundant from the standpoint of predictions.

[srimurthy]

You will get 1 years extension as the dates are current. Rest everything is luck.


I know this is not the correct place for this question. I will delete it in a day.
If my PD becomes current in this bulletin and if I file for my H-1B renewal next week in premium prcessing, will I still get 3 year or will they give me 1 year as dates are current effective next month?
Thanks.

[vizcard]

Spec, please correct my understanding from the following from your posting in facts and data. Thanks for documenting for everyone's benefit.

"Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated, because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data and the total rises by one."

I believe this should also include the scenario that if USCIS is able to adjudicate more applications than the allocated numbers by DOS even if the dates are current then also the numbers should show up. Now if USCIS has no monthly circuit breakers then the approvals will only stop when the annual limits are hit. Right now Nov and Dec filers are being approved consistently even though significant number of people in these groups are still pending / waiting.

Demand data should be qualified but unsatisfied or unsatiated demand assuming that there is a monthly limit or circuit breaker. However if it’s just in the case when PD is not current then this document is truly redundant from the standpoint of predictions.

There are two situations where "demand" would come about (i.e. on the demand data report)
1. Dates are current - visa quotas are maxed out (in which case retrogression would happen and demand would increase). The "circuit breakers" are quarterly quotas.
2. Dates are already retrogressed - a person's application is pre-adjudicated (what happened due to the 2007 fiasco).

[TeddyKoochu]

There are two situations where "demand" would come about (i.e. on the demand data report)
1. Dates are current - visa quotas are maxed out (in which case retrogression would happen and demand would increase). The "circuit breakers" are quarterly quotas.
2. Dates are already retrogressed - a person's application is pre-adjudicated (what happened due to the 2007 fiasco).

Thanks Vizcard for pointing, I read through Spec's post and he has the circuit breaker scenario also documented by quarterly limits. Now since this will be a new quarter I think they can have a open heart about forward movement.

"Possibly, the other way that the Demand Data might increase, is if DOS run out of visas for EB2-IC under Quarterly Spillover and stop allocating them.".

Spec thanks your description sounds perfect.

[Spectator]

Spec, please correct my understanding from the following from your posting in facts and data. Thanks for documenting for everyone's benefit.

"Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated, because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data and the total rises by one."

I believe this should also include the scenario that if USCIS is able to adjudicate more applications than the allocated numbers by DOS even if the dates are current then also the numbers should show up. Now if USCIS has no monthly circuit breakers then the approvals will only stop when the annual limits are hit. Right now Nov and Dec filers are being approved consistently even though significant number of people in these groups are still pending / waiting.

Demand data should be qualified but unsatisfied or unsatiated demand assuming that there is a monthly limit or circuit breaker. However if it’s just in the case when PD is not current then this document is truly redundant from the standpoint of predictions.Teddy,

I agree.

In the document, I also said


Possibly, the other way that the Demand Data might increase, is if DOS run out of visas for EB2-IC under Quarterly Spillover and stop allocating them.
and I have mentioned that scenario several times.

The only law about allocation is for the Quarterly limit, so allocating more in a month within the quarter is very likely. Figures for EB3 in previous years shows this does appear to happen.

Frankly, I think the quarterly limit for Q2 might be a bit tight. As long as he successfully negotiates that, a new quarter's allocation becomes available.

Although it is the law, I am not convinced CO has ever seen 27% as a hard, hard limit, since he can "anticipate" returns of visas from Consulates. If those happen to be "less" than he used in his calculations, then he has exceeded the Quarterly limit. Only the Year End limit is a hard cap in reality IMO.

I am more and more convinced that CO knows exactly where he wants to stop the forward movement in Cut Off Dates and that he will do that regardless. In that respect, I have stopped trying to guess.

I think the more interesting question is how much SOFAD there will be this year. Really, leaving aside the EAD/AP issue, that is the only important number, other than the more cases there are, the longer it will be before rapid forward movement is possible again.

As both Q and yourself have said, the forward movement is completely independent of the number of visas available this year.

People should enjoy it while it lasts, but it will end eventually.

[Spectator]

I know this is not the correct place for this question. I will delete it in a day.
If my PD becomes current in this bulletin and if I file for my H-1B renewal next week in premium prcessing, will I still get 3 year or will they give me 1 year as dates are current effective next month?
Thanks.nellore,

This memo (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/Archives%201998-2008/2008/ac21_30may08.pdf) (page 13 (10)) instructs Adjudicators to look at the VB that was in effect at the time of filing to determine whether to grant a 1 or 3 year extension. Some selected snippets from the memo:


Any petitioner seeking an H-1B extension on behalf of an H-1B alien beneficiary pursuant to §104(c) of AC21 must thus establish that at the time of filing for such extension, the alien is not eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status on account of the per country immigrant visa limitations.


Adjudicators are instructed to review the Department of State Immigrant Visa Bulletin that was in effect at the time of the filing of the Form I-129 petition in which a request for an §104(c) of AC21 H-1B extension request is made. If the H-1B alien beneficiary is shown to be ineligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status because of the per country visa limitations, then the H-1B extension request under the provisions of §104(c) of AC21 may be granted for a maximum of three year increments, until such time as the alien’s application for adjustment of status has been processed and a decision made thereupon.

So, if the extension was filed when you weren't Current, then you should be entitled to a 3 year extension.

[nellore]

If that happens it would be great.
Thanks for the replies


nellore,

This memo (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/Archives%201998-2008/2008/ac21_30may08.pdf) (page 13 (10)) instructs Adjudicators to look at the VB that was in effect at the time of filing to determine whether to grant a 1 or 3 year extension. Some selected snippets from the memo:





So, if the extension was filed when you weren't Current, then you should be entitled to a 3 year extension.

[rasknorr]

Sorry if this is already posted (please let me know i will delete).

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Does this any helpful info...

[essenel]

I called USCIS this morning (this is the first time I tried calling) and all they said was that TSC is processing applications from April and that I'll need to wait. I asked if I could get any information on background-check and was said "no". I didn't bother asking them to transfer me to L2. From the way things are looking, I don't think there'll be any change to our application status anytime soon. I just hope they still have our applications and did not "misplace" them.

Tackle, I have been following your posts... I think your avatar is very fitting. It's extremely frustrating when you have no idea what's going on with your application.... Please hang in there...

[bookworm]

If that happens it would be great.
Thanks for the replies

First time poster. Feel free to correct me if I make any noob mistakes.

I can vouch for what Spec said from personal experience. My H1B - Post 6 yr extension was pending since Oct 11 thru Jan 12 when I had to visit India for a family emergency. The Feb bulletin (issued in Jan 12) made my PD (10/2009) current (starting Feb 1). I got my visa extension stamped based on the extended H1B and got a full 3 years.

Hope that helps.

[Kanmani]

First time poster. Feel free to correct me if I make any noob mistakes.

I can vouch for what Spec said from personal experience. My H1B - Post 6 yr extension was pending since Oct 11 thru Jan 12 when I had to visit India for a family emergency. The Feb bulletin (issued in Jan 12) made my PD (10/2009) current (starting Feb 1). I got my visa extension stamped based on the extended H1B and got a full 3 years.

Hope that helps.

Spec was very clear in this context, hence he printed the word ' filed' in bold. So it is the filing date that counts.
If you are not current on the day uscis receives the application , then you get 3 yrs extension.
If you are current on the day uscis receives the application , then you get 1 year extension.
Bookworm, do you think any of the above statements doesn't fit in your case?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I agree.

In the document, I also said


and I have mentioned that scenario several times.

The only law about allocation is for the Quarterly limit, so allocating more in a month within the quarter is very likely. Figures for EB3 in previous years shows this does appear to happen.

Frankly, I think the quarterly limit for Q2 might be a bit tight. As long as he successfully negotiates that, a new quarter's allocation becomes available.

Although it is the law, I am not convinced CO has ever seen 27% as a hard, hard limit, since he can "anticipate" returns of visas from Consulates. If those happen to be "less" than he used in his calculations, then he has exceeded the Quarterly limit. Only the Year End limit is a hard cap in reality IMO.

I am more and more convinced that CO knows exactly where he wants to stop the forward movement in Cut Off Dates and that he will do that regardless. In that respect, I have stopped trying to guess.

I think the more interesting question is how much SOFAD there will be this year. Really, leaving aside the EAD/AP issue, that is the only important number, other than the more cases there are, the longer it will be before rapid forward movement is possible again.

As both Q and yourself have said, the forward movement is completely independent of the number of visas available this year.

People should enjoy it while it lasts, but it will end eventually.

Thanks Spec for your detailed explanation. Completely agree with you. I believe that we can expect significantly higher SOFAD this year if the approvals have been less than or equal to the quarterly approval limits. Let’s hope that forward movement continues even though it might be for the next year because having EAD / AP really helps.

[mesan123]

Another Jan filer( 7-OCT-2008) got greened......Jan fillers 5 of them in trackitt got approved today......

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/875517315/i-485-current-in-january-2012-gathering/page/86

[bookworm]

Spec was very clear in this context, hence he printed the word ' filed' in bold. So it is the filing date that counts.
If you are not current on the day uscis receives the application , then you get 3 yrs extension.
If you are current on the day uscis receives the application , then you get 1 year extension.
Bookworm, do you think any of the above statements doesn't fit in your case?

In my case the original extension was filed in Oct 11 but then they moved it to premium processing in Jan as I was in India and needed to get back. I don't know if the initial and premium count as separate filings or just as an upgrade. The original was filed in Oct 11 and the premium was filed after Jan 10th 2012.

Just wanted to add that I respect the insight that all the gurus bring to the convoluted area of immigration and my intent in posting was to provide anecdotal evidence to support Spec's excellent post.

Sorry for hijacking the thread.

[Kanmani]

In my case the original extension was filed in Oct 11 but then they moved it to premium processing in Jan as I was in India and needed to get back. I don't know if the initial and premium count as separate filings or just as an upgrade. The original was filed in Oct 11 and the premium was filed after Jan 10th 2012.

Just wanted to add that I respect the insight that all the gurus bring to the convoluted area of immigration and my intent in posting was to provide anecdotal evidence to support Spec's excellent post.

Sorry for hijacking the thread.

bookworm,
This 3 yr, 1 yr extensions are general rule, but we don't know how many adjudicators are following their manual. You are lucky to get an extension approved while u were away from the country( if I understand correct)

[nishant2200]

Teddy, I am also convinced now. Thanks for the explanation, both you and vizcard.

CO is an expert in impedance matching and he must have good circuit breakers to prevent blowouts :D


Thanks Vizcard for pointing, I read through Spec's post and he has the circuit breaker scenario also documented by quarterly limits. Now since this will be a new quarter I think they can have a open heart about forward movement.

"Possibly, the other way that the Demand Data might increase, is if DOS run out of visas for EB2-IC under Quarterly Spillover and stop allocating them.".

Spec thanks your description sounds perfect.

[suninphx]

bookworm,
This 3 yr, 1 yr extensions are general rule, but we don't know how many adjudicators are following their manual. You are lucky to get an extension approved while u were away from the country( if I understand correct)

Even if he is out of country H1 extension processing should continue isn't it? Assuming stamping went smoothly for him....I would say thats lucky.

[bookworm]

bookworm,
This 3 yr, 1 yr extensions are general rule, but we don't know how many adjudicators are following their manual. You are lucky to get an extension approved while u were away from the country( if I understand correct)
I was lucky. I got the I-797 in 2 days after they filed for premium processing and got the visa stamped after answering 2 questions (name of employer & job title). My frame of mind at that point in time was "to hell with immigration issues - there's more important things in life". But now I am back into the GC hunting mode!

[tackle]

Tackle, I have been following your posts... I think your avatar is very fitting. It's extremely frustrating when you have no idea what's going on with your application.... Please hang in there...

Thanks man. Appreciate it. And, wish you all the best with your RFE review. Hope we get good news soon.

[srimurthy]

Love the attitude you had.
Meanwhile looks like they were just waiting for you to file the Premium so they can pocked a few extra bucks.

I was lucky. I got the I-797 in 2 days after they filed for premium processing and got the visa stamped after answering 2 questions (name of employer & job title). My frame of mind at that point in time was "to hell with immigration issues - there's more important things in life". But now I am back into the GC hunting mode!

[Kanmani]

Even if he is out of country H1 extension processing should continue isn't it? Assuming stamping went smoothly for him....I would say thats lucky.

Sun . You are correct , extensions remain valid unlike a change of status application which may be considered abondoned. thanks

[suninphx]

Sun . You are correct , extensions remain valid unlike a change of status application which may be considered abondoned. thanks

Only thing is bookworm may have got I94 attached with I797 which is kinda useless now.

[bookworm]

Love the attitude you had.
Meanwhile looks like they were just waiting for you to file the Premium so they can pocked a few extra bucks.
Again as luck would have it - my company picked up the tab for that expense. The whole immigration system feels like a scam to gouge people who can not vote and affect politicians.

End of Rant. Back to regular programming (aka What will CO do?)

[makmohan]

Hey Friends,

My H1B expires in late Fall and a time soon will come to file for my 2nd 3-year extension.

My PD is 30-Apr-08. I got current recently and filed for my 485 in first week of Feb.

I keep reading advantages of keeping H1 status. Looking at the cost of H1 extension I am not sure whether my company will agree especially if I have EAD.

No issues if I receive my GC during this summer's SOFAD (not sure what are the chances) but any suggestions on whether it is worth to go for H1 extension in case my approval gets postponed to next summer (during 2013 summer SOFAD season)?

Makmohan

[suninphx]

Hey Friends,

My H1B expires in late Fall and a time soon will come to file for my 2nd 3-year extension.

My PD is 30-Apr-08. I got current recently and filed for my 485 in first week of Feb.

I keep reading advantages of keeping H1 status. Looking at the cost of H1 extension I am not sure whether my company will agree especially if I have EAD.

No issues if I receive my GC during this summer's SOFAD (not sure what are the chances) but any suggestions on whether it is worth to go for H1 extension in case my approval gets postponed to next summer (during 2013 summer SOFAD season)?

Makmohan

IMO - There is a high chance that you will get your GC in this FY. Also if DOS/USCIS coninue to do what they did this FY, there will be quarterly spillovers(monthly in fact) next FY too.

[mrdeeds]

Hey Friends,

My H1B expires in late Fall and a time soon will come to file for my 2nd 3-year extension.

My PD is 30-Apr-08. I got current recently and filed for my 485 in first week of Feb.

I keep reading advantages of keeping H1 status. Looking at the cost of H1 extension I am not sure whether my company will agree especially if I have EAD.

No issues if I receive my GC during this summer's SOFAD (not sure what are the chances) but any suggestions on whether it is worth to go for H1 extension in case my approval gets postponed to next summer (during 2013 summer SOFAD season)?

Makmohan

Makmohan,

1) Most likely you will get your GC in this FY spillover. You will get a better idea over the next couple of months.
2) If you plan to stay in your job and job is safe and looks like it will stay that way and if the company is not willing to do H1B, EAD is fine. In case you are the real cautious one who worries about backup plan for a backup plan, go for the H1B.

[srividya]

Just speculation, VO may move another 2 months for April.
reason: March projection was movement of 6 months but it was moved by 4 months only:cool:

[vizcard]

Hey Friends,

My H1B expires in late Fall and a time soon will come to file for my 2nd 3-year extension.

My PD is 30-Apr-08. I got current recently and filed for my 485 in first week of Feb.

I keep reading advantages of keeping H1 status. Looking at the cost of H1 extension I am not sure whether my company will agree especially if I have EAD.

No issues if I receive my GC during this summer's SOFAD (not sure what are the chances) but any suggestions on whether it is worth to go for H1 extension in case my approval gets postponed to next summer (during 2013 summer SOFAD season)?

Makmohan


IMO - There is a high chance that you will get your GC in this FY. Also if DOS/USCIS coninue to do what they did this FY, there will be quarterly spillovers(monthly in fact) next FY too.


Makmohan,

1) Most likely you will get your GC in this FY spillover. You will get a better idea over the next couple of months.
2) If you plan to stay in your job and job is safe and looks like it will stay that way and if the company is not willing to do H1B, EAD is fine. In case you are the real cautious one who worries about backup plan for a backup plan, go for the H1B.

Im in the exact same boat. 8/20/08 PD and H1B expiring on 11/30/12. Im pretty certain, I'll be greened by 11/30. I'm planning on making a game time decision. Even if I don't get greened by then I will most likely stay with EAD.

[mrdeeds]

The day is setting here on the east coast and no bulletin yet today. ಠ_ಠ

[vizcard]

The day is setting here on the east coast and no bulletin yet today. ಠ_ಠ

DD came out today, VB will come out tomorrow.

[tatikonda]

Hi,

Here is link for Mumbai US Consulate : web page where cutoff dates will be posted.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

[mrdeeds]

DD came out today, VB will come out tomorrow.

Don't they come out on the same day sometimes?

[skpanda]

in recent times yes...but we never know.. in old days there used to be 1 day gap.


Don't they come out on the same day sometimes?

[mrdeeds]

in recent times yes...but we never know.. in old days there used to be 1 day gap.

skpanda, put on your magic hat again and dig out that PDF from somewhere again...please. :-)

[skpanda]

Ah.. u remember.... last time.. i was just lucky to stumble upon it... (i did not intend to).

Today i have been trying to refresh since morning.. no luck....

as they say it... when u need it... it wont come 2 u....

Good luck to all. I hope and pray that there is atleast 2 months movement (some of my friends badly need that).



skpanda, put on your magic hat again and dig out that PDF from somewhere again...please. :-)

[rasknorr]

Hope for the best...

[yzzozzy]

Folks --

I just received the NVC fee notice. PD 22-JUN-2011 EB2IC. I'm in the US at the moment. What now?!

[kd2008]

Folks --

I just received the NVC fee notice. PD 22-JUN-2011 EB2IC. I'm in the US at the moment. What now?!

Congrats! Inform NVC if filing I-485. If you are in the US when dates become current, simply file I-485.

Edited as per Visnu's correction below.

[vishnu]

no - if the applicants intention is to do AoS, then the NVC notice specifically says just inform the NVC and go ahead and apply directly to USCIS. confiremd by my lawyer too.

So one does not pay the fees to the NVC but rather directly with USCIS as part of i-485 application.

[skpanda]

looks like curtains down for today!! Good luck to all for VB.. most like it will be released tomorrow.

[kd2008]

no - if the applicants intention is to do AoS, then the NVC notice specifically says just inform the NVC and go ahead and apply directly to USCIS. confiremd by my lawyer too.

So one does not pay the fees to the NVC but rather directly with USCIS as part of i-485 application.

Thanks for correcting. Edited my post.

[yzzozzy]

Congrats! You need to pay the fees within the time period specified. If you are in the US when dates become current, simply file I-485 or if you wish you can appear for the interview when scheduled at the consulate you chose.

Hi kd2008, the letter did not say anything about paying the fees within a certain time frame. It just tells me to go to www.ImmigrantVisas.state.gov and pay $794 per person.

[yzzozzy]

This is what the notice says about AoS - "If the applicant's intention is to adjust status with Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS),
please contact the NVC before taking further action or making any payments."

[iamdeb]

This is what the notice says about AoS - "If the applicant's intention is to adjust status with Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS),
please contact the NVC before taking further action or making any payments."

Did you opt for CP during I140 filing?

[nishant2200]

looks like curtains down for today!! Good luck to all for VB.. most like it will be released tomorrow.

There is very high chance of it showing up on mumbai consulate website tonight. watch out for it.

[yzzozzy]

Did you opt for CP during I140 filing? Apparently, my lawyer did without informing me. She said it's "routine" for them to opt for CP to leave both doors open (CP and I-485).

[mesan123]

What time do they update in mumbai consulate 9am IST ?


There is very high chance of it showing up on mumbai consulate website tonight. watch out for it.

[nishant2200]

What time do they update in mumbai consulate 9am IST ?

When the Dec VB was released, it was done so first on mumbai site, and I was the first to inform on this forum :D

And I am pretty sure the time was pretty late, like after 10.30 PM PST here, which would be 12 in daytime in India. so basically, no bets on time, it maybe anytime.

[mesan123]

Tnx for the reply, ok.... :) will check in the morning then


When the Dec VB was released, it was done so first on mumbai site, and I was the first to inform on this forum :D

And I am pretty sure the time was pretty late, like after 10.30 PM PST here, which would be 12 in daytime in India. so basically, no bets on time, it maybe anytime.

[greenercard]

Just thought I'd post an update on my case.
EB2 India.
Biometrics appointment notice received: 03/07/2012
Priority Date: 05/13/2008
AOS application Receipt Date: 01/24/2012

[nishant2200]

Tnx for the reply, ok.... :) will check in the morning then

yeah, I am at west coast, so at least I was able to see it last time. I called up teddy immediately and he was sound asleep on east coast, did not pick up phone, I forgot its late into the night for them :D

[richie.rich]

It will be a miracle if I get current tonight....

Fingers Crossed!!!:cool:

[mesan123]

yeap dont know howmuch the moment will be....but i am just hoping i will be current soon based on NVC reciepts....just hoping....:) lets see what's in store ...because if dates stop moving now, it we another 2 years wait :(


yeah, I am at west coast, so at least I was able to see it last time. I called up teddy immediately and he was sound asleep on east coast, did not pick up phone, I forgot its late into the night for them :D

[cbpds1]

I still remember that day, I saw it at 11:30PST and was just jumping with joy, sweet memories !!

All the best everyone !!


yeah, I am at west coast, so at least I was able to see it last time. I called up teddy immediately and he was sound asleep on east coast, did not pick up phone, I forgot its late into the night for them :D

[nrmmrn]

It will be a miracle if I get current tonight....

Fingers Crossed!!!:cool:

I hope you get current..mine is aug 17th 2010!!

Thanks,

[Jonty Rhodes]

When the Dec VB was released, it was done so first on mumbai site, and I was the first to inform on this forum :D

And I am pretty sure the time was pretty late, like after 10.30 PM PST here, which would be 12 in daytime in India. so basically, no bets on time, it maybe anytime.

Nishant, it was actually 1 AM CST and 11 PM PST. I remember this because I was doing a night shift in my hospital and happened to just check the page of Mumbai Consulate at 1 AM CST. Refreshed it twice, the dates were changed. :o

[qblogfan]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

[trackitgc]

Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!

Congratulations !!!!!

[derekjbj]

whats your PD qblogfan ?

[qesehmk]

qbf !! USCIS' CSAT just went up 50%.

I can't believe you made it. Finally my friend. So happy for u.


Guys, I just want to let you know I got CPO email today. Finally my GC is approved! It a painful journey. Thank you for your help! I will always support this forum!