EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[suninphx]

kd,

I would agree your estimate for Jan-Mar filings of 30k is reasonable. That together with cases remaining at the start of the year, previous VB movement and Porting would mean about 60k total cases.

I'm not entirely sure where the amount of SOFAD you mention is going to come from. EB2-non IC is pretty much where it was last year at this time and EB5 is likely to use even more than the 3.5k it did last year. I don't think it is realistic to think EB1 would provide higher numbers than last year.

I do understand what you are saying about processing times, but if not checked it is a feed back loop. Too much resource on EB2-IC means less approvals for other Categories, which in turn means more EB2-IC cases need to be processed.

Your scenario is also another reason to retrogress dates sooner rather than later. Feb VB filers have a very slim chance and March VB filers have zero chance of approvals this FY, even with the sort of level of SOFAD you mention.

The Feb/March VB cases can be brought to pre-adjudicated status as time and resources permit in PD order. There is no overriding hurry to pre-adjudicate them, particularly the later dates, only to issue the EAD and AP.

It is not going to be seen as acceptable if EB2-IC I-485 cases are adjudicated faster than other I-485 cases in Categories that are truly Current to the end of the year. When there were pre-adjudicated cases, it was reasonable, but now everyone is equal in that respect. EB1A and B candidates in particular might feel rightfully aggrieved, since their I-140 processing is glacial at best.

At the same time that would ensure that the PD order for EB2-IC approvals is generally respected. USCIS may well do this absent retrogression anyway. Their approvals to date have shown a general trend to do that.

On an unrelated note, I think USCIS must be increasingly worried about the number of EAD/AP renewals they will have to make for no income. We know it is a consideration, because CO has mentioned it. I think USCIS recent increase in production rate is an attempt to stop forward movement of the Cut Off Dates. It is certainly one of the reasons CO has given for continuing to do so.

As for CO's musings on EB1, he pulled that trick last year. If USCIS have been feeding him figures as out of date as the last Inventory appears to be, it is no wonder he thinks filings are low. I'm not convinced USCIS has the capability to provide near real time numbers.

An alternative view at least.

IMO , KD did not mean to say that every who got current will get approved this year. He is just projecting a SOFAD of 30K for this year as well as projecting total number of Jan, Feb, Mar filers to be around 30 K.

With OR of 0.8 we will get around 60k total application , around 55k for OR of 0.7 and 50k for 0.65 OR.

Another unrelated thing - CM who have been very conservative all this time has become suddenly optimistic for whatever reason. Currently he is projecting Oct/Nov 2008 PD as GC in hand scenario. ( something we all will accept happily :) )

[Spectator]

Spec...can you shed some light on the NVC reciept part....because before i assume any person who got there NVC reciepts were current with in one year from the time they paid fees....if the data is high, and SOFAD is going to be less...why are they sending NVC reciepts for so far date(may 2011).mesan,

Personally, I think it is just a backstop so that cases can be processed quickly if USCIS don't hold up their end of the bargain. The problem is that CP represents such a small % of EB2-IC cases (only 1-2% in recent years). To generate any number of CP cases requires huge moves in the Cut Off Dates. For example, if a movement from May 01, 2010 to June 01, 2011 represented 30,000 cases, only 300-600 of those would be Consular Processed. If USCIS mess up and don't deliver the approvals, virtually no amount of Cut Off Date Movement can compensate, because the Consular numbers are so low in EB2. In contrast, the CP % in EB3 can be as high as 50%. Both Philippines and China can hit that amount, although it is around 15% for EB3-ROW.


Thanks Spec. I can agree with what your understanding is. I just wanted to listen to your commentary about this document and correlation hence to your notes.Nishant,

I can't make sense of it either. Everybody seems so optimistic, it almost seems my duty to be the pessimist.


IMO , KD did not mean to say that every who got current will get approved this year. He is just projecting a SOFAD of 30K for this year as well as projecting total number of Jan, Feb, Mar filers to be around 30 K.

With OR of 0.8 we will get around 60k total application , around 55k for OR of 0.7 and 50k for 0.65 OR.

Another unrelated thing - CM who have been very conservative all this time has become suddenly optimistic for whatever reason. Currently he is projecting Oct/Nov 2008 PD as GC in hand scenario. ( something we all will accept happily :) )suninphx,

That is exactly how I interpreted it. I think it was vizcard who misunderstood.

My ballpark 60k was based on an OR of 0.7.

IMO, CM's optimism may be based on a faulty calculation of OR for the best case from the Inventory (0.42). On the other hand, it is not entirely unrealistic for Cut Off Dates at the end the year to be that late, if there are lots of cases delayed by RFE.

Unlike when all the cases were pre-adjudicated, waiting only for the Cut Off Date to move, not all 100% will become documentarily qualified in time within the FY. So the Cut Off Date could reach that late, but there will still be many with earlier PDs awaiting approval going into the next FY.

[mesan123]

Thank you for the reply Spec...

[pch053]

thanks gcseeker and friends, I posted in post 485 filing thread this news. we can carry forth the party there :D
Belated congratulations on this wonderful news; enjoy the approaching weekend!

[nishant2200]

Belated congratulations on this wonderful news; enjoy the approaching weekend!

Thanks Dr. Pch! Indeed waiting for weekend.

[kd2008]

kd,

I would agree your estimate for Jan-Mar filings of 30k is reasonable. That together with cases remaining at the start of the year, previous VB movement and Porting would mean about 60k total cases.

I'm not entirely sure where the amount of SOFAD you mention is going to come from. EB2-non IC is pretty much where it was last year at this time and EB5 is likely to use even more than the 3.5k it did last year. I don't think it is realistic to think EB1 would provide higher numbers than last year.

I do understand what you are saying about processing times, but if not checked it is a feed back loop. Too much resource on EB2-IC means less approvals for other Categories, which in turn means more EB2-IC cases need to be processed.

Your scenario is also another reason to retrogress dates sooner rather than later. Feb VB filers have a very slim chance and March VB filers have zero chance of approvals this FY, even with the sort of level of SOFAD you mention.

The Feb/March VB cases can be brought to pre-adjudicated status as time and resources permit in PD order. There is no overriding hurry to pre-adjudicate them, particularly the later dates, only to issue the EAD and AP.

It is not going to be seen as acceptable if EB2-IC I-485 cases are adjudicated faster than other I-485 cases in Categories that are truly Current to the end of the year. When there were pre-adjudicated cases, it was reasonable, but now everyone is equal in that respect. EB1A and B candidates in particular might feel rightfully aggrieved, since their I-140 processing is glacial at best.

At the same time that would ensure that the PD order for EB2-IC approvals is generally respected. USCIS may well do this absent retrogression anyway. Their approvals to date have shown a general trend to do that.

On an unrelated note, I think USCIS must be increasingly worried about the number of EAD/AP renewals they will have to make for no income. We know it is a consideration, because CO has mentioned it. I think USCIS recent increase in production rate is an attempt to stop forward movement of the Cut Off Dates. It is certainly one of the reasons CO has given for continuing to do so.

As for CO's musings on EB1, he pulled that trick last year. If USCIS have been feeding him figures as out of date as the last Inventory appears to be, it is no wonder he thinks filings are low. I'm not convinced USCIS has the capability to provide near real time numbers.

An alternative view at least.

Spec, thanks for explaining yourself so well.


I'm not entirely sure where the amount of SOFAD you mention is going to come from. EB2-non IC is pretty much where it was last year at this time and EB5 is likely to use even more than the 3.5k it did last year. I don't think it is realistic to think EB1 would provide higher numbers than last year.

You answered you own question. PERMs from Nov 2011 are just starting to get approved. So EB2ROW filings will go down as we move ahead into the year. If you check the I-485 inventory then the approvals for EB1 have been scant - I don't look at older years as they are too small, but recent years showed very little decrease esp. 2009 and 2010 numbers compared to Oct inventory. I don't believe the inventory can be wrong. It may be incomplete for recent months but not wrong. As for last year, I believe EB1 did deliver but EB2ROW surged with the fast PERM processing esp March-April 2011 which was on the cusp of the deadline whereby cases could be adjudicated in FY 2011 itself. June 2011 and later saw another surge which were consumed in FY 2012.

More over, USCIS has to process I-485 in order of receipt. They may not have to adjudicate them in order of receipt but they have to process fingerprinting, EAD etc in order of receipt. This makes any EB cases filed after March go down bottom of the barrel.

It is like everything giving a little away and it resulting in more and more likely that SOFAD increases little by little by the fact that nearly ALL cases filed in the second half of this fiscal year in general are going to have poor probability of being processed before the end of the fiscal year. More over, some 20 to 30% of cases linger for over 6 months with USCIS so USCIS actually needs larger pool of "approvable" cases. USCIS also needs a pipeline of cases for adjudication typically at least 4 months of processing. With EB3ROW likely to get current next fiscal year, there will be hopefully enough to do for the IOs.

As for EB1 and EB2ROW guys being aggrieved about EB2IC folks getting approved quicker? I don't think anybody is going to take them seriously esp if their dates are current. Moreover, if USCIS is worried about processing enough cases esp. to consume EB2 then EB2IC offer easiest path with their already approved I-140s.

The inventory that USCIS sits on is of little concern now to Mr. CO. It is solely their processing rate that matters. Mr. CO couldn't care less if USCIS has to renew EADs and APs. If he does not consume all the visas by the end of the year, he will have to face hell. Already, other websites and law firms have started work to address if this eventuality becomes reality - nothing is out in the open, but plans are being drawn. Folks have put up with it in the past. Not this time. Mr. CO has been repeatedly reminded of this in various meetings. So i think he will want to go into last quarter of the fiscal year with max insurance as possible.

Will this result in more date movement for EB2IC? unlikely, but not impossible either. I think the quarter switch from second quarter to the third quarter that happens with April visa bulletin will be interesting to watch. It would be clearest reason for Mr. CO to change tracks but if he doesn't then it is clear that the pressure is on USCIS.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

That is exactly how I interpreted it. I think it was vizcard who misunderstood.

My ballpark 60k was based on an OR of 0.7.

IMO, CM's optimism may be based on a faulty calculation of OR for the best case from the Inventory (0.42). On the other hand, it is not entirely unrealistic for Cut Off Dates at the end the year to be that late, if there are lots of cases delayed by RFE.

Unlike when all the cases were pre-adjudicated, waiting only for the Cut Off Date to move, not all 100% will become documentarily qualified in time within the FY. So the Cut Off Date could reach that late, but there will still be many with earlier PDs awaiting approval going into the next FY.

spec,

Then point would be- what is the number USCIS comfortable with, carrying forward to next FY. No one knows that. If we go by last year's figure then we can assume that may be they are comfortable with 8k-10K getting carried into next year. So even with that if the cut off date is around Oct-Nov 2008, then at least I would be very happy. Not too long ago there were predictions here that Dec -Jan 08 being border line cases for approvals. Well, we already started seeing approvals for those PDs and I would not be surparised if we see some approvals from Jab and Feb VB cut off date PDs. (I very well understand that this does not mean every one with earlier PD got approved. )

[TeddyKoochu]

Good that after a long time that finally we are back at debating numbers once again.
If we look at the current intakes starting right from the PWMB cases in October to the last bulletin (01-MAY-2010) the intake is easily 40K. The OR (Perm to I485) would range from 0.7 – 0.8.
Coming to the Jan inventory , for Nov filings which would have been in quite literally by that time the numbers for Dec and Jan filings seem to be unrealistically low, if that is true however then great. I still believe in my hypothesis that the dependent cases have not been properly accounted for due to the default data for the dependent A#’s. The truth is that the inventory possibly cannot be independently used for any analysis now because by the time the next inventory is released there will be a significant depletion due to approvals so there will never be a static stabilization point.
The consumption ball park is 18K, we did count this around the end of last year it was already 11-12K and in the recent days most Oct filers a significant number of Nov filers and a few Dec filers have been approved. Now if we look at the consumption thus far and comparing with the 9% per month consumption per month model we are actually looking at huge SOFAD.
At the beginning of the year the thought was that SOFAD will be lesser this year thanks to I140 acceleration and higher EB5 usage. The underlying thing I believe that USCIS is in fact approving every kind of case very fast there are several examples to show that EB1 and EB2 ROW cases are actually ahead of EBE I /C but however it looks like EB2 ROW is actually severely underperforming and more than compensating everything else. Also looks like EB1 demand is not all that high however it was kind of artificially pushed up by the high I140 approval rates we should not complain because we enjoyed the benefits last year but EB1 A & B has definitely stabilized. EB5 may have had high resurgence during Q1 this year but is still is expected to provide us with a minimum of 6K SOFAD just like the last year. The only category that is probably going higher is EB1-C the numbers on the data on Trackitt may be skewed because the data for this category is mostly India whereas in reality India normally uses 3K of the 20K EB1C usage, this is based on 50% of EB1 being EB1C and EB1 India being around 6K.
Now coming to the final resting point for this year by Sep 2012 the way the current approvals are going on there is a very good chance that it will be closer to 01-JAN-2009 this date is just out of my gut feel. I would attribute higher SOFAD as the bigger reason for this than demand destruction, no denying that there is demand destruction the OR for argument sake is .75 however the SOFAD would well be closer to 35K as opposed to the initial estimate of 22K that’s a bigger factor than demand destruction.
We also saw very interesting news of a May 2011 case getting a NVC notice this news is simply amazing it very much indicates that the next forward movement or intake would probably happen in Oct – Dec 2012 rather than Oct – Dec 2013; I believe the higher SOFAD is the key to make this happen. Those who missed in the Mar bulletin should not be disappointed because the next boat will arrive quite soon it will not take 4 years to arrive.
Another thing that maybe working in favor of EB2 right now is lesser porting. With the passage of HR 3012 in the house many people either decided to put their porting plans on hold or decided to wait another 6 months. However as time is elapsing due to the senate deadlock people are reassessing in large numbers. Porting is not easy but people are waking up and realizing in large numbers now than ever before that it is the only way out if HR 3012 does not pass, it is almost like if you don’t do anything you are doomed if you try there is a chance if not a guarantee of success.

[EB2EB2]

Hello Guru's, This blog is just amazing. I logon multiple times a day. :)
And now got a little bit confused given all the different scenarios. :D

My PD is FEB-2009. I got current in Feb VB.
My attorneys have filed I-485, I-131, I-765. Received Date = 10-FEB-2012.
I think, looking at the trends, I can be certain that the EAD/AP will arrive in about 2 months.

Any predictions when GC will arrive ? Will I get the GC in 2012 ?


EB2-I | PD: Feb-2009 | Nebraska SC | RD: 10-Feb-2012 | FP: ? | EAD,AP: ? | GC: ?? |

[gc_usa]

Good that after a long time that finally we are back at debating numbers once again.
If we look at the current intakes starting right from the PWMB cases in October to the last bulletin (01-MAY-2010) the intake is easily 40K. The OR (Perm to I485) would range from 0.7 – 0.8.
Coming to the Jan inventory , for Nov filings which would have been in quite literally by that time the numbers for Dec and Jan filings seem to be unrealistically low, if that is true however then great. I still believe in my hypothesis that the dependent cases have not been properly accounted for due to the default data for the dependent A#’s. The truth is that the inventory possibly cannot be independently used for any analysis now because by the time the next inventory is released there will be a significant depletion due to approvals so there will never be a static stabilization point.
The consumption ball park is 18K, we did count this around the end of last year it was already 11-12K and in the recent days most Oct filers a significant number of Nov filers and a few Dec filers have been approved. Now if we look at the consumption thus far and comparing with the 9% per month consumption per month model we are actually looking at huge SOFAD.
At the beginning of the year the thought was that SOFAD will be lesser this year thanks to I140 acceleration and higher EB5 usage. The underlying thing I believe that USCIS is in fact approving every kind of case very fast there are several examples to show that EB1 and EB2 ROW cases are actually ahead of EBE I /C but however it looks like EB2 ROW is actually severely underperforming and more than compensating everything else. Also looks like EB1 demand is not all that high however it was kind of artificially pushed up by the high I140 approval rates we should not complain because we enjoyed the benefits last year but EB1 A & B has definitely stabilized. EB5 may have had high resurgence during Q1 this year but is still is expected to provide us with a minimum of 6K SOFAD just like the last year. The only category that is probably going higher is EB1-C the numbers on the data on Trackitt may be skewed because the data for this category is mostly India whereas in reality India normally uses 3K of the 20K EB1C usage, this is based on 50% of EB1 being EB1C and EB1 India being around 6K.
Now coming to the final resting point for this year by Sep 2012 the way the current approvals are going on there is a very good chance that it will be closer to 01-JAN-2009 this date is just out of my gut feel. I would attribute higher SOFAD as the bigger reason for this than demand destruction, no denying that there is demand destruction the OR for argument sake is .75 however the SOFAD would well be closer to 35K as opposed to the initial estimate of 22K that’s a bigger factor than demand destruction.
We also saw very interesting news of a May 2011 case getting a NVC notice this news is simply amazing it very much indicates that the next forward movement or intake would probably happen in Oct – Dec 2012 rather than Oct – Dec 2013; I believe the higher SOFAD is the key to make this happen. Those who missed in the Mar bulletin should not be disappointed because the next boat will arrive quite soon it will not take 4 years to arrive.
Another thing that maybe working in favor of EB2 right now is lesser porting. With the passage of HR 3012 in the house many people either decided to put their porting plans on hold or decided to wait another 6 months. However as time is elapsing due to the senate deadlock people are reassessing in large numbers. Porting is not easy but people are waking up and realizing in large numbers now than ever before that it is the only way out if HR 3012 does not pass, it is almost like if you don’t do anything you are doomed if you try there is a chance if not a guarantee of success.

The way Nvc is sending fees notices looks like dos is preparing for current for eb2 ic. What ever sofad is and even dos moved date so fast uscis is not catching up to supply.if for any reason they will not approve many cases now then towards end of the year 2009 and 2010 cases will get approved. I see repeat of summer of 2008 where 2006 cases got approved but not 03,04,05.

[imdeng]

I am expecting my PD to get GC in Q1FY2013 - I would guess the same for you. Although based on the recent discussions on USCIS not being able to process enough cases, there is a chance that a few Feb filers may squeak through if they have a clean, low-hanging-fruit application.

About EAD/AP, NSC is currently in the range of 40-50 days for most applications, TSC a few days quicker.

Hello Guru's, This blog is just amazing. I logon multiple times a day. :)
And now got a little bit confused given all the different scenarios. :D

My PD is FEB-2009. I got current in Feb VB.
My attorneys have filed I-485, I-131, I-765. Received Date = 10-FEB-2012.
I think, looking at the trends, I can be certain that the EAD/AP will arrive in about 2 months.

Any predictions when GC will arrive ? Will I get the GC in 2012 ?


EB2-I | PD: Feb-2009 | Nebraska SC | RD: 10-Feb-2012 | FP: ? | EAD,AP: ? | GC: ?? |

[imdeng]

They will not make it current. They may make it near-current but not actually current. I gather the reason is because they do not want EB2I filing for 140+485 concurrently, which you can only do if dates are current.

The way Nvc is sending fees notices looks like dos is preparing for current for eb2 ic. What ever sofad is and even dos moved date so fast uscis is not catching up to supply.if for any reason they will not approve many cases now then towards end of the year 2009 and 2010 cases will get approved. I see repeat of summer of 2008 where 2006 cases got approved but not 03,04,05.

[imdeng]

I am happy that we are back to talking about numbers again. Although we still do not have concrete data points to talk about since the inventory and demand data are both quite unreliable at this point.

A SOFAD of 35K would be something! We knew that EB2ROW is weak this year - if it turns out that EB1 is not up from last year then yes 35K can be achieved. Perhaps that is what CO is seeing and that's why the mad rush to advance PDs and setting the stage for future PD hikes with NVC notices. I had earlier considered 01-Jan-2009 to be the "most-optimistic" estimate for the end-of-FY2012 PD - but it seems that might become more likely.

Good that after a long time that finally we are back at debating numbers once again.

[imdeng]

There is very little chance of EB3ROW getting current anytime soon. EB3ROW will cross the 07/07 threshold next year - but there are a whole lot of unrecognized post-07/07 inventory lying around for EB3ROW to deal with after that. They may also have had demand destruction similar to EB2IC, but even with that several years will be needed to make a significant dent in EB3ROW, especially considering that EB3 does not get any SOFAD.


....
With EB3ROW likely to get current next fiscal year, there will be hopefully enough to do for the IOs.
....

[kd2008]

There is very little chance of EB3ROW getting current anytime soon. EB3ROW will cross the 07/07 threshold next year - but there are a whole lot of unrecognized post-07/07 inventory lying around for EB3ROW to deal with after that. They may also have had demand destruction similar to EB2IC, but even with that several years will be needed to make a significant dent in EB3ROW, especially considering that EB3 does not get any SOFAD.

Sorry my bad. current as in past-july 07 and not "C". For folks who have been following this for many many years, getting past july 07 was a dream - as if getting current. It is a old usage and no longer applicable. Just shows how far we have come.

[narendarrao]

just for understanding, why wouldn't they want concurrent filing?

i have another somewhat unrelated query..

my employer informed me that they won't pay the legal fees for the 485 filing for my wife..is that a normal practice or is it my employer playing cheap again? getting a little frustrated with their attitude...

thanks as always

This is my understanding.

I will answer second one first. 485 stage is not the concern of the employer. Employer is only responsible for first two stages i.e, Labour and I-140. I-485 is the responsibility of the employee. It is up to the company if they want to bear the expenses and file for everyone, or only primary or none. My employer takes care of everything except medicals for dependents with a restriction. If i leave them before the mentioned time, I will have to pay all the expenses incurred for them on GC.

Now the first one. USCIS has limited source of income and so have limited number of officers adjudicating the files. If filed concurrent, the resources are split to process these applications else they can use these officers atleast to process EAD and AP petitions. Already we are talking about USCIS not able to process I-485 in time and use all the visa numbers for GC and so DOS is sending notices to people in 2011.

So i feel this is the reason, they don't want another head ache of applications to come in at this point of time.

[imdeng]

Kanmani - you and I would be a good comparative case study for the relative effectiveness of TSC and NSC since we have such close PD and RD :-) Although I am expecting an RFE for BC and Flu Vaccine - so that may skew things later.

imdeng
Keep going. I like it :)

[raj888]

They will not make it current. They may make it near-current but not actually current. I gather the reason is because they do not want EB2I filing for 140+485 concurrently, which you can only do if dates are current.

Imdeng,

Can you pls elaborate the bolded statement in your quote? My understanding is one can file I140and 485 concurrenlty if his/her PD is current. So your argument on making it near-current and not actually current leading to less applicants filing concurrent 140&485 is only restricted to the number of applicants having PD between near-current and current, no?

[vizcard]

Does anyone know if there's a distribution analysis for the reasons for RFE ? My guess is the biggest one will be BC, next would be TB and the 3rd EVL?

BTW, its been 3+ weeks since my RD but there's no change to the LUD (even soft) online. My guess is that this means lead times are going up even for EAD/AP. My FP date was also 3 weeks after my FP notice.

[nishant2200]

Does anyone know if there's a distribution analysis for the reasons for RFE ? My guess is the biggest one will be BC, next would be TB and the 3rd EVL?

BTW, its been 3+ weeks since my RD but there's no change to the LUD (even soft) online. My guess is that this means lead times are going up even for EAD/AP. My FP date was also 3 weeks after my FP notice.

These are the offenders in order of amount of occurrences I am seeing:

1. BC related
2. Medical forms related
3. Provide copy of last used I-94 to enter
4. EVL
5. Proof of status between particular date period(s)
6. Bonafide marriage

[usernameisnotvalid]

I don't know why this country is so obsessed with BCs :)


These are the offenders in order of amount of occurrences I am seeing:

1. BC related
2. Medical forms related
3. Provide copy of last used I-94 to enter
4. EVL
5. Proof of status between particular date period(s)
6. Bonafide marriage

[vizcard]

These are the offenders in order of amount of occurrences I am seeing:

1. BC related
2. Medical forms related
3. Provide copy of last used I-94 to enter
4. EVL
5. Proof of status between particular date period(s)
6. Bonafide marriage

Thanks Nishant. I was doing a quick mental checklist to see if I had covered all bases. I think I have but there's always that one random thing that they will ask for.

[sandeep11]

The whole EB based GC is based on the country of chargebility...i.e place of birth.....and an official BC is the only document that they would need to determine your 'place of birth'

please remember it is 'place of birth' and on the nationality........you could be an Indian but born in Nepal.....you wud be considered under ROW since your place of birth is Nepal.....


I don't know why this country is so obsessed with BCs :)

[usernameisnotvalid]

Thanks!

My joke was about Obama's BC issue!


The whole EB based GC is based on the country of chargebility...i.e place of birth.....and an official BC is the only document that they would need to determine your 'place of birth'

please remember it is 'place of birth' and on the nationality........you could be an Indian but born in Nepal.....you wud be considered under ROW since your place of birth is Nepal.....

[sandeep11]

:)


Thanks!

My joke was about Obama's BC issue!

Originally Posted by sandeep11
The whole EB based GC is based on the country of chargebility...i.e place of birth.....and an official BC is the only document that they would need to determine your 'place of birth'

please remember it is 'place of birth' and on the nationality........you could be an Indian but born in Nepal.....you wud be considered under ROW since your place of birth is Nepal.....

[Kanmani]

They didn't let loose even President in the matter of BC. I feel happy atleast we have an option for additional documents like affidavits . I am imagining Trump in the place of Alejandro Mayorkas:confused:

[harapatta]

you make a valid point..but it doesn't make sense that they should dig that deep specially for Indians...they are already suffering enough with all the immigration mess



:)



Originally Posted by sandeep11
The whole EB based GC is based on the country of chargebility...i.e place of birth.....and an official BC is the only document that they would need to determine your 'place of birth'

please remember it is 'place of birth' and on the nationality........you could be an Indian but born in Nepal.....you wud be considered under ROW since your place of birth is Nepal.....

[pdfeb09]

about concurrent filing, work load makes sense, but concurrent filing might help with getting a better estimate of the filers out there, humble two cents

From the workload point of view, with the finite number of officers and resources, it really does not make any difference to USCIS after a point.
e.g. If USCIS can process 100 applications a day with its resources, it does not really make a difference to them whether they receive 150 or 200 or 500 applications. They will just be processing the applications at full speed every day for a few days longer. It only helps them if the dates don't move even if the number of applications fall under 100 (Read - retrogressed dates even after all the available cases are adjudicated).

With the rapid movements of the past few months, I am sure USCIS has enough applications to make them work full steam already. Having any more applications will just increase the stack and not really make them any more busy.

The concurrency itself is also not much of an issue. Most of the people, who get their labor cleared, file for I140 almost immediately anyways. They don't have to wait for the dates to be current. So, from that perspective, USCIS cannot avoid getting I140s from people whose priority dates are not current yet.

I guess the main issue, about making the dates current, is about getting I485 applications from candidates whose priority dates span a huge time period. Once the application hits USCIS, because multiple officers divide the work-load amongst themselves, an application with a much later priority date say 1/1/2012 may get approved while person from 5/1/2009 is still being processed, creating much uproar.

Gradual approach by CO is, therefore, probably a request from USCIS to keep as much processing sequential (in the order of PD) as possible..

Just my thoughts ..

[mesan123]

Another point...who will want to file in EB2I or EB2 C .....if they can file in EB2ROW.....because EB2I/EB3I or the slowest once.....( i meant use fake indian birth)


you make a valid point..but it doesn't make sense that they should dig that deep specially for Indians...they are already suffering enough with all the immigration mess

[mbasense]

Gradual approach by CO is, therefore, probably a request from USCIS to keep as much processing sequential (in the order of PD) as possible..



agreed, i suppose a choice between getting current followed by a steep retrogression, or whether to have a slow and steady progress with little or no retrogression.

[immi2910]

I had a similar question a month back even though my date (06/2011) is unlikely to be current anytime soon. I posted my question on all the forums and only Ron responded. You can see the thread: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16040&highlight=

Basically, Ron said go ahead with CP pay the fees and if the dates do retrogress then you could also do AOS. Keep in mind you will forfeit the CP fees.

In your case, if you do not mind travelling to India for an interview and obtaining police clearance certificates then you should proceed with CP. It is likely most of the pre-processing will be done before your date becomes current and you will be able to schedule interview once the date becomes current. Once that happens Retrogression will have no impact on you.


Hi all,
My PD is Oct 27 210 and I received my NVC fee receipt last week. For whatever reason my attorney had filed my 140 with CP which I had no idea until now.

Our paralegal suggested that we will file a AOS when my dates become current.

Anyways, I have been researching the pros and cons of filing for AOS vs. CP and I am little tempted by the possibility of CP being quicker than AOS. I fully understand that I may lose the benefits of EAD/AP and also the hassle of getting the Meds done in India. PCC, in my research thus far, may not be as much a problem as it can be obtained from the NY Indian Consulate.

So, I am beginning to wonder if I should continue my case as a CP.

Is there any one else sailing in the same boat? Any advice / suggestions would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance
NYQ

[Reader]

God has answered my prayers.

Have received the CPO mails for both me and wife. No RFE even though the place of birth in the passport is different from the BC for wife. We have included the affidavits from her mom and dad.

It is a great feeling and relief to know that we can now go for India vacations with out worrying about the stamping and port of entry questions. Already started browsing for ticket prices. :-)

[maggie]

God has answered my prayers.

Have received the CPO mails for both me and wife. No RFE even though the place of birth in the passport is different from the BC for wife. We have included the affidavits from her mom and dad.

It is a great feeling and relief to know that we can now go for India vacations with out worrying about the stamping and port of entry questions. Already started browsing for ticket prices. :-)

Congratulations Reader!!!!

[pdfeb09]

God has answered my prayers.

Have received the CPO mails for both me and wife. No RFE even though the place of birth in the passport is different from the BC for wife. We have included the affidavits from her mom and dad.

It is a great feeling and relief to know that we can now go for India vacations with out worrying about the stamping and port of entry questions. Already started browsing for ticket prices. :-)

Congratulations .. Enjoy a (stress) free life .. :)

[imdeng]

CONGRATULATIONS !!!!!!! Reader.

PS> Thanks Kanmani for well colored, very festive, nicely formatted Congratulations.

Reader CONGRATULATIONS !!!!!!!

2nd rank stressed out man is also cleared :)

[mysati]

God has answered my prayers.

Have received the CPO mails for both me and wife. No RFE even though the place of birth in the passport is different from the BC for wife. We have included the affidavits from her mom and dad.

It is a great feeling and relief to know that we can now go for India vacations with out worrying about the stamping and port of entry questions. Already started browsing for ticket prices. :-)

Congrats Reader!

[mesan123]

CONGRATULATIONS.............have a peaceful home visit....


God has answered my prayers.

Have received the CPO mails for both me and wife. No RFE even though the place of birth in the passport is different from the BC for wife. We have included the affidavits from her mom and dad.

It is a great feeling and relief to know that we can now go for India vacations with out worrying about the stamping and port of entry questions. Already started browsing for ticket prices. :-)

[soggadu]

Here you can find some info: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?641-USCIS-Client-Visit

Thank you mbasense and username... lot of help on that one!!!!!thanks....

CONGRATULATIONS !!!!!!! reader...

[longgcque]

Congratulations Reader. If you dont mind, then please share your details like PD etc


God has answered my prayers.

Have received the CPO mails for both me and wife. No RFE even though the place of birth in the passport is different from the BC for wife. We have included the affidavits from her mom and dad.

It is a great feeling and relief to know that we can now go for India vacations with out worrying about the stamping and port of entry questions. Already started browsing for ticket prices. :-)

[gc_usa]

Now its my turn.....

Got it.. 5 minutes ago.

SRC1290068***

MS - YES
COMPANY - RETAIL - NON IT (MIDSIZE - 10K EMP)
H1B - 7 YEARS
WITH SAME COMPANY - WAS WITH ANOTHER COMPANY FOR 5 MONTHS SINCE THEN WITH SAME EMPLOYER
ISSUE - 221(G) In 2011 , Site visit in 2011
Other issue - No.

[narendarrao]

I am trying to understand the following line from http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R42048.pdf

While it is possible that USCIS may be holding on to some approved I-485 petitions, the National Visa Center caseload is the data that drive the priority dates published in the Visa Bulletin each month.

I was always under impression that qualified applications from USCIS are counted towards the demand data along with NVC applications.

Can someone please explain this to me?

Thanks.

[ismile]

Congratulations !!!!

Now its my turn.....

Got it.. 5 minutes ago.

SRC1290068***

MS - YES
COMPANY - RETAIL - NON IT (MIDSIZE - 10K EMP)
H1B - 7 YEARS
WITH SAME COMPANY - WAS WITH ANOTHER COMPANY FOR 5 MONTHS SINCE THEN WITH SAME EMPLOYER
ISSUE - 221(G) In 2011 , Site visit in 2011
Other issue - No.

[immi2910]

My PD is June 2011 and I have received Fee Notice from NVC. Just this morning I had replied to someone with Oct 2010 saying I do not expect it anytime soon ;)

[kd2008]

My PD is June 2011 and I have received Fee Notice from NVC. Just this morning I had replied to someone with Oct 2010 saying I do not expect it anytime soon ;)

Oh wow!!! I cannot believe it. Thank you for informing us about it. This is simply great! I give up. For all my elaborations about inventory, date movement, etc, Mr. CO has something else entirely on his mind I suppose. Could you please let us know the date of your PD?

[suninphx]

Oh wow!!! I cannot believe it. Thank you for informing us about it. This is simply great! I give up. For all my elaborations about inventory, date movement, etc, Mr. CO has something else entirely on his mind I suppose. Could you please let us know the date of your PD?

Great news!
KD- the PD is 06/14/2011 -its in the subject of the post :).

[kd2008]

Great news!
KD- the PD is 06/14/2011 -its in the subject of the post :).

I guess I was blinded with excitement to register it in my brain. Sorry!

[immi2910]

Oh wow!!! I cannot believe it. Thank you for informing us about it. This is simply great! I give up. For all my elaborations about inventory, date movement, etc, Mr. CO has something else entirely on his mind I suppose. Could you please let us know the date of your PD?

I had mentioned my date in the heading but it is 6/14/2011 (or may be 6/13/2011 I am not sure).

[derekjbj]

desperately waiting for next months bulletin. havent visited india in 5 years

[kd2008]

desperately waiting for next months bulletin. havent visited india in 5 years

That is a long time. I hope you get to visit India very soon!

[Kanmani]

Kd, are'nt you Dec or Jan filer? I thought 2008 is your Pd/year, likewise immi2910. 29/10 - birthday?

[kd2008]

Kd, are'nt you Dec or Jan filer? I thought 2008 is your Pd/year, likewise immi2910. 29/10 - birthday?

Kanmani, that is kind of you. I ain't no filer yet. 2008 is when I got my job.

[just_curious]

I had mentioned my date in the heading but it is 6/14/2011 (or may be 6/13/2011 I am not sure).

mixed feeling after hearing this....

Anyway congrats and Good Luck, immi2910!!!!

[immi2910]

Kd, are'nt you Dec or Jan filer? I thought 2008 is your Pd/year, likewise immi2910. 29/10 - birthday?

29/10 (Indian Format) is my b'day.

[suninphx]

I guess I was blinded with excitement to register it in my brain. Sorry!

Its exciting news indeed! Whats ur PD?

[Spectator]

I am trying to understand the following line from http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R42048.pdf

While it is possible that USCIS may be holding on to some approved I-485 petitions, the National Visa Center caseload is the data that drive the priority dates published in the Visa Bulletin each month.

I was always under impression that qualified applications from USCIS are counted towards the demand data along with NVC applications.

Can someone please explain this to me?

Thanks.narendarrao,

I was rather hoping no one would ever, ever mention that Report!

[Start Rant]
It is so full of errors and shows such a complete lack of understanding of the system, that it is virtually useless. It is far more likely to confuse people.

More worryingly, it is published by the Congressional Research Service. The author, Ruth Ellen Wasem is described as Specialist in Immigration Policy.

How can Congress make informed decisions, if this is the !@#$ they have to rely on.
[End Rant]

For EB, USCIS approves around 90% of all cases each FY and it is their case load that will have the biggest impact on Cut Off Date movement for most EB Categories.

[nishant2200]

and the Wasem guy probably gets paid a much fatter pay check than most of us here. dang.


narendarrao,

I was rather hoping no one would ever, ever mention that Report!

[Start Rant]
It is so full of errors and shows such a complete lack of understanding of the system, that it is virtually useless. It is far more likely to confuse people.

More worryingly, it is published by the Congressional Research Service. The author, Ruth Ellen Wasem is described as Specialist in Immigration Policy.

How can Congress make informed decisions, if this is the !@#$ they have to rely on.
[End Rant]

For EB, USCIS approves around 90% of all cases each FY and it is their case load that will have the biggest impact on Cut Off Date movement for most EB Categories.

[CleanSock]

My PD is June 2011 and I have received Fee Notice from NVC. Just this morning I had replied to someone with Oct 2010 saying I do not expect it anytime soon ;)

I know I am saying the same thing as others, but this is really exciting. Hope this date does become current in a year as everybody says about NVC

[CleanSock]

Also, I have a question, pardon me if it's a silly one. Is SOFAD = unused visas in other categories which are then distributed between EB2I/C? If so, what does SOFAD stand for?

[Pundit Arjun]

Also, I have a question, pardon me if it's a silly one. Is SOFAD = unused visas in other categories which are then distributed between EB2I/C? If so, what does SOFAD stand for?

CleanSock, Checkout the FAQs thread for information.

[immi2910]

Also, I have a question, pardon me if it's a silly one. Is SOFAD = unused visas in other categories which are then distributed between EB2I/C? If so, what does SOFAD stand for?

The first acronym on the first post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=7646#post7646) of this thread:
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down

[eb2ODer]

I know I am saying the same thing as others, but this is really exciting. Hope this date does become current in a year as everybody says about NVC

I know everybody is excited, given my PD is 06/2011!!!!!!!!!!!! I must be excited, but this news is somewhat unsettling.

My reasoning if CO opens the flood gates in July 2012 (similar if not same as 2007) by moving cut-off dates to 2011 then this will only mean out of order processing to meet Visa numbers and then further retrogression, (some will benefit from EAD but) longer wait for 2010 & 2011 folks to obtain GC itself. I did rather see I-485 approvals upto Jan 2009 by end of FY2012 and cut-off dates move forward at start of FY 2013. What I am trying to say is I did rather see USCIS process existing applications swiftly in order to meet Visa numbers... this means we see real forward movement sooner and consistenly than if CO moves dates back & forth...

Gurus, is my worry unfounded?

[kd2008]

I know everybody is excited, given my PD is 06/2011!!!!!!!!!!!! I must be excited, but this news is somewhat unsettling.

My reasoning if CO opens the flood gates in July 2012 (similar if not same as 2007) by moving cut-off dates to 2011 then this will only mean out of order processing to meet Visa numbers and then further retrogression, (some will benefit from EAD but) longer wait for 2010 & 2011 folks to obtain GC itself. I did rather see I-485 approvals upto Jan 2009 by end of FY2012 and cut-off dates move forward at start of FY 2013. What I am trying to say is I did rather see USCIS process existing applications swiftly in order to meet Visa numbers... this means we see real forward movement sooner and consistenly than if CO moves dates back & forth...

Gurus, is my worry unfounded?

I get what you are saying.

For people filing AOS: NO GC, NO EAD < No GC, YES EAD < YES GC

So I have to disagree with you. I would rather see as many people as possible get their EADs.

[immi2910]

I know everybody is excited, given my PD is 06/2011!!!!!!!!!!!! I must be excited, but this news is somewhat unsettling.

My reasoning if CO opens the flood gates in July 2012 (similar if not same as 2007) by moving cut-off dates to 2011 then this will only mean out of order processing to meet Visa numbers and then further retrogression, (some will benefit from EAD but) longer wait for 2010 & 2011 folks to obtain GC itself. I did rather see I-485 approvals upto Jan 2009 by end of FY2012 and cut-off dates move forward at start of FY 2013. What I am trying to say is I did rather see USCIS process existing applications swiftly in order to meet Visa numbers... this means we see real forward movement sooner and consistenly than if CO moves dates back & forth...

Gurus, is my worry unfounded?

I am not sure why you are worried. You should be worried if you miss the boat and are not able to file for AOS. Look at it this way, per your example say you will become eligible for GC in FY 2013. Would you rather dates become current and then retrogress so that you get EAD and or would you want to wait without EAD?

The only problem is if the dates move till May 2011 and then retrogress then yes you will be waiting for a long time since it would be similar to mini-2007 and dates will not move beyond May 2011 until everyone up to May 2011 get their GC.

[CleanSock]

Thank You immi2910 :)

[CleanSock]

I think it really depends on individual situation whether one prefers getting an EAD soon (no matter afterwards if dates retrogress) or would rather wait to get GC (slow and steady movement of VB rather than a steep movement or making it current and then retrogressing). If a person is stuck with a bad employer, he would most probably prefer getting an EAD asap so that he can change the employer whereas, on the other hand, a person who is with a good employer and is really happy working there or let's say direct employee who has no intentions of leaving that firm even after getting a GC etc might rather prefer to wait for GC than just get an EAD and then face retrogression and looking at an unknown period of time before he becomes current again.

[kkruna]

Point of time when you get GC is independent of whether or not you got EAD quite early. Not sure why you would not prefer a fallback. Most employers are good till they are good; it's business.


I think it really depends on individual situation whether one prefers getting an EAD soon (no matter afterwards if dates retrogress) or would rather wait to get GC (slow and steady movement of VB rather than a steep movement or making it current and then retrogressing). If a person is stuck with a bad employer, he would most probably prefer getting an EAD asap so that he can change the employer whereas, on the other hand, a person who is with a good employer and is really happy working there or let's say direct employee who has no intentions of leaving that firm even after getting a GC etc might rather prefer to wait for GC than just get an EAD and then face retrogression and looking at an unknown period of time before he becomes current again.

[CleanSock]

It is nothing related to my case. I was just generalizing. Some people want EAD quickly because of various reasons like wanting to change employer etc.They may not worry as much about VB retrogressing as the first thing on their minds is getting an EAD whereas, others who are not in such a situation (relatively speaking), who don't have any plans to change employer etc don't care as much about getting EAD quickly or not as long as they get GC.
I know a person who doesn't even bother to follow the forums and is of thinking that it'll come whenever it has to come ( he has no plans of changing his employer and is quite happy working there). But then, this might be an isolated case. What i mean to say is, people like that are not so worried about getting EAD quickly (at least this guy).

I maybe wrong on this. Maybe people like that are very less in percentage.

[rockybaba]

To lighten the mood...An important lesson in economics for all freshly minted Greencard holders and those awaiting their turn!!

A Cow based Economics Lesson:

SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor.

COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk.

FASCISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk.

NAZISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you.

BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the milk away.

TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows. You sell them and retire on the income.

ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (VENTURE) CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all four cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows.

The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company.

The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one more.

You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States,leaving you with nine cows. No balance sheet provided with the release. The public then buys your bull.

SURREALISM
You have two giraffes.The government requires you to take harmonica lessons.

AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows. Later, you hire a consultant to analyze why the cow has dropped dead.

A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows. You go on strike, organize a riot, and block the roads, because you want three cows.

A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk. You then create a clever cow cartoon image called a Cowkimona and market it worldwide.

AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are. You decide to have lunch.

A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you. You charge the owners for storing them.

A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You have 300 people milking them. You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.

AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You worship them. You leave them to your parents back in India, and go to America to milk the American cows. You continue your prayers to the Indian cows that your American Greencards get approved. The American cow drops dead and without a job, you invade trackitt and USCIS websites pleading your greencards as honest & Legal milkers. In the process you become good Cow Analysts better than the legals, paralegals at predicting and estimating greencard forward movements.

A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows. Both are mad and you get the madcow disease

AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that you have none. No-one believes you, so they bomb the ** out of you and invade your country. You still have no cows, but at least you are now a Democracy.

AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. Business seems pretty good. You close the office by lunchtime and go for a few beers to celebrate.

A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows. The one on the left looks very attractive.

[narendarrao]

narendarrao,

I was rather hoping no one would ever, ever mention that Report!

[Start Rant]
It is so full of errors and shows such a complete lack of understanding of the system, that it is virtually useless. It is far more likely to confuse people.

More worryingly, it is published by the Congressional Research Service. The author, Ruth Ellen Wasem is described as Specialist in Immigration Policy.

How can Congress make informed decisions, if this is the !@#$ they have to rely on.
[End Rant]

For EB, USCIS approves around 90% of all cases each FY and it is their case load that will have the biggest impact on Cut Off Date movement for most EB Categories.

Thanks Spec.

This document was prepared in December 2011 and published some time in January 2012. I never had time to go through this one.

Today i was going through all the pdf's i had over the past year and was surprised to see this line. I have seen that Congressional Research Service has many other documents published over the years related immigration. So i wanted to make sure what i read is not correct.

[letheQ]

To lighten the mood...An important lesson in economics for all freshly minted Greencard holders and those awaiting their turn!!

A Cow based Economics Lesson:

SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor.

COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk.

FASCISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk.

NAZISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you.

BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the milk away.

TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows. You sell them and retire on the income.

ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (VENTURE) CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all four cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows.

The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company.

The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one more.

You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States,leaving you with nine cows. No balance sheet provided with the release. The public then buys your bull.

SURREALISM
You have two giraffes.The government requires you to take harmonica lessons.

AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows. Later, you hire a consultant to analyze why the cow has dropped dead.

A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows. You go on strike, organize a riot, and block the roads, because you want three cows.

A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk. You then create a clever cow cartoon image called a Cowkimona and market it worldwide.

AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are. You decide to have lunch.

A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you. You charge the owners for storing them.

A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You have 300 people milking them. You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.

AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You worship them. You leave them to your parents back in India, and go to America to milk the American cows. You continue your prayers to the Indian cows that your American Greencards get approved. The American cow drops dead and without a job, you invade trackitt and USCIS websites pleading your greencards as honest & Legal milkers. In the process you become good Cow Analysts better than the legals, paralegals at predicting and estimating greencard forward movements.

A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows. Both are mad and you get the madcow disease

AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that you have none. No-one believes you, so they bomb the ** out of you and invade your country. You still have no cows, but at least you are now a Democracy.

AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. Business seems pretty good. You close the office by lunchtime and go for a few beers to celebrate.

A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows. The one on the left looks very attractive.

OH MY GOD. where did you get this. Dont say that you have written this . Its wonderful.

[rockybaba]

glad u enjoyed..

Original ????? Ofcourse not....!! I am an Indian, that's as original as it gets ofcourse.

Just google "Cow economics" for the many versions if u like to laugh a little longer..

Modifications ??? Ofcourse yes....!! We have mastered the art to "take it" and "run with it, and make it our own...haven't we?"


OH MY GOD. where did you get this. Dont say that you have written this . Its wonderful.

[narendarrao]

Hi,

How long does it take for a CP application to be processed from submitting the fees to going for an interview?

NVC receipts are being issued till some time in 2011.

If USCIS doesn't use the visas on time then DOS can use up all the visas left and process CP applications so that they don't waste any visas.
Dates have to be moved in order for these CP applicants to go for an interview.

How many CP applications did they process last year? I don't think we have so many applications after 2007 fiasco for CP.

Is it in the last quarter that DOS determines that visas are not being used up and should move the dates ahead. They might need some time too to forward applications to consulates. If so then we have to see the movement starting July.

Am i missing something here?

Thanks.

[longgcque]

hey rockybaba .. what a creativity .. made me laugh like anything .. Indian cows was too good .. pretty accurate ..


To lighten the mood...An important lesson in economics for all freshly minted Greencard holders and those awaiting their turn!!

A Cow based Economics Lesson:

SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor.

COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk.

FASCISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk.

NAZISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you.

BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the milk away.

TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows. You sell them and retire on the income.

ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (VENTURE) CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all four cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows.

The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company.

The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one more.

You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States,leaving you with nine cows. No balance sheet provided with the release. The public then buys your bull.

SURREALISM
You have two giraffes.The government requires you to take harmonica lessons.

AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows. Later, you hire a consultant to analyze why the cow has dropped dead.

A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows. You go on strike, organize a riot, and block the roads, because you want three cows.

A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk. You then create a clever cow cartoon image called a Cowkimona and market it worldwide.

AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are. You decide to have lunch.

A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you. You charge the owners for storing them.

A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You have 300 people milking them. You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.

AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You worship them. You leave them to your parents back in India, and go to America to milk the American cows. You continue your prayers to the Indian cows that your American Greencards get approved. The American cow drops dead and without a job, you invade trackitt and USCIS websites pleading your greencards as honest & Legal milkers. In the process you become good Cow Analysts better than the legals, paralegals at predicting and estimating greencard forward movements.

A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows. Both are mad and you get the madcow disease

AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that you have none. No-one believes you, so they bomb the ** out of you and invade your country. You still have no cows, but at least you are now a Democracy.

AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. Business seems pretty good. You close the office by lunchtime and go for a few beers to celebrate.

A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows. The one on the left looks very attractive.

[Spectator]

How many CP applications did they process last year? narendarrao,

The figures for last year have not been published yet. EB2-IC have very low amounts of CP.

In FY2010 (the last year figures are available), CP accounted for 172 cases out of the 26,466 approvals for EB2-IC.

Possibly, the numbers post July 2007 are slightly higher, but they are not going to amount to large numbers.

As of November 1, 2011, NVC reported they had 4,758 cases (including dependents) for EB2-IC. That would cover the period from around mid 2007 to November 2011 (about 1k per PD year).

[skpanda]

This is the first time i am hearing about this. How can the company force you to pay the GC cost back if you quit? DO they ask you to sign a contract. Is this specific to Consulting companies? When do they inform employees about this arrangement?

My company (full time job) pays for me and my dependents GC process and there is no such agreement on recovering the cost if i quit post GC.



I had the exact same thing. Although my lawyers suggested we FedEx the copies rather than upload them. I guess they didn't want to spend money printing. My Firm gave us an indication that the complete GC process would be between 8 - 12K with a 18 or 24 month post GC stay. If I don't quit before that time, I don't think I'll even quit this company :)

[CleanSock]

I have no plans of leaving my employer even after I get my GC, but I still want an EAD ASAP simply because my wife can start working. And why would anyone not want an EAD? It is better than having an H1B at any cost. At the very least, I do not need to visit the damn consulate again and waste a day in getting stamped (even if I was confident of smooth sailing, which seems rare these days).

Besides, there are very few people who would want to be stuck at the same position for years. If your GC is pending, you would never get to the executive level and that's a fact. I had to let go some great presales opportunities looking at expanding our business in Asia because my GC was pending. I even don't even think about changing jobs because my GC is pending. Everyone wants something more no matter how "happy" they are.

Your premise of "slow and steady wins the race" is not correct. In fact you are better served with a fast movement, because a) you get your EAD fast, and b) as long as there is no retrogression and your case does not result in an RFE, you can even get your GC out of order and fast.


I agree with you about not going to the consulate for stamping thing. As I said before, this probably is an isolated and unique case. Making it current is beneficial for people awaiting their GC's but as everyone is suggesting, CO is very careful this time in moving the dates after 2007 fiasco and may not make them current unless the demand is really really low.

[vizcard]

It is nothing related to my case. I was just generalizing. Some people want EAD quickly because of various reasons like wanting to change employer etc.They may not worry as much about VB retrogressing as the first thing on their minds is getting an EAD whereas, others who are not in such a situation (relatively speaking), who don't have any plans to change employer etc don't care as much about getting EAD quickly or not as long as they get GC.
I know a person who doesn't even bother to follow the forums and is of thinking that it'll come whenever it has to come ( he has no plans of changing his employer and is quite happy working there). But then, this might be an isolated case. What i mean to say is, people like that are not so worried about getting EAD quickly (at least this guy).

I maybe wrong on this. Maybe people like that are very less in percentage.


I have no plans of leaving my employer even after I get my GC, but I still want an EAD ASAP simply because my wife can start working. And why would anyone not want an EAD? It is better than having an H1B at any cost. At the very least, I do not need to visit the damn consulate again and waste a day in getting stamped (even if I was confident of smooth sailing, which seems rare these days).

Besides, there are very few people who would want to be stuck at the same position for years. If your GC is pending, you would never get to the executive level and that's a fact. I had to let go some great presales opportunities looking at expanding our business in Asia because my GC was pending. I even don't even think about changing jobs because my GC is pending. Everyone wants something more no matter how "happy" they are.

Your premise of "slow and steady wins the race" is not correct. In fact you are better served with a fast movement, because a) you get your EAD fast, and b) as long as there is no retrogression and your case does not result in an RFE, you can even get your GC out of order and fast.
I don't plan on changing jobs either and I'm pretty close to making Partner in my Firm... with or without GC. That being said EAD opens up some doors that H1 doesn't.
1. Spouse can start/ continue working (if her company doesn't sponsor GC). My wife works in fashion and its a miracle they even hired a foreigner.
2. You can start a business.
3. You can do secondments to other countries. I've had the opportunity to go to Asia for a short period and build a practice/book of business there but given a pending GC situation, its tricky.
4. You can go to school part-time and work part time without having to deal with F1/ CPT / H1 crap.

[vizcard]

I agree with you about not going to the consulate for stamping thing. As I said before, this probably is an isolated and unique case. Making it current is beneficial for people awaiting their GC's but as everyone is suggesting, CO is very careful this time in moving the dates after 2007 fiasco and may not make them current unless the demand is really really low.

Making dates "current" doesn't mean people will get GCs. It means ppl can apply for GCs. Secondly, CO will not make them current unless there is ZERO demand. Low or very low will not cut it. It was very very low in Oct / Nov / Dec this year but he didn't make it current.

[qesehmk]

Here is one more I read somewhere long time back. But still makes me giggle!

Marxist Leninist Approach to Cow Economics
You have two cows and neighbor has one. The state kills one of yours to establish equality.


To lighten the mood...An important lesson in economics for all freshly minted Greencard holders and those awaiting their turn!!

A Cow based Economics Lesson:

SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor.

COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk.

FASCISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk.

NAZISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you.

BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the milk away.

TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows. You sell them and retire on the income.

ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (VENTURE) CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all four cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows.

The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company.

The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one more.

You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States,leaving you with nine cows. No balance sheet provided with the release. The public then buys your bull.

SURREALISM
You have two giraffes.The government requires you to take harmonica lessons.

AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows. Later, you hire a consultant to analyze why the cow has dropped dead.

A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows. You go on strike, organize a riot, and block the roads, because you want three cows.

A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk. You then create a clever cow cartoon image called a Cowkimona and market it worldwide.

AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are. You decide to have lunch.

A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you. You charge the owners for storing them.

A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You have 300 people milking them. You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.

AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You worship them. You leave them to your parents back in India, and go to America to milk the American cows. You continue your prayers to the Indian cows that your American Greencards get approved. The American cow drops dead and without a job, you invade trackitt and USCIS websites pleading your greencards as honest & Legal milkers. In the process you become good Cow Analysts better than the legals, paralegals at predicting and estimating greencard forward movements.

A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows. Both are mad and you get the madcow disease

AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that you have none. No-one believes you, so they bomb the ** out of you and invade your country. You still have no cows, but at least you are now a Democracy.

AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. Business seems pretty good. You close the office by lunchtime and go for a few beers to celebrate.

A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows. The one on the left looks very attractive.

[kkruna]

You cant go to school part time on H1?
I have heard ppl completing PhD on H1...


I don't plan on changing jobs either and I'm pretty close to making Partner in my Firm... with or without GC. That being said EAD opens up some doors that H1 doesn't.
1. Spouse can start/ continue working (if her company doesn't sponsor GC). My wife works in fashion and its a miracle they even hired a foreigner.
2. You can start a business.
3. You can do secondments to other countries. I've had the opportunity to go to Asia for a short period and build a practice/book of business there but given a pending GC situation, its tricky.
4. You can go to school part-time and work part time without having to deal with F1/ CPT / H1 crap.

[narendarrao]

narendarrao,

The figures for last year have not been published yet. EB2-IC have very low amounts of CP.

In FY2010 (the last year figures are available), CP accounted for 172 cases out of the 26,466 approvals for EB2-IC.

Possibly, the numbers post July 2007 are slightly higher, but they are not going to amount to large numbers.

As of November 1, 2011, NVC reported they had 4,758 cases (including dependents) for EB2-IC. That would cover the period from around mid 2007 to November 2011 (about 1k per PD year).

Thank you Spectator.

[Jonty Rhodes]

You cant go to school part time on H1?
I have heard ppl completing PhD on H1...

Agree with you. I actually just completed my Masters in Public Health (MPH) last year. I was on F1 doing my Masters earlier but had to drop out because I secured a position for residency (post-graduation) in Internal Medicine to do my MD (on H1B) and it was impossible for me to do both MD and MPH at the same time due to time constraints.

Once I finished my MD, I started the job in a hospital on H1B and completed my remaining 8 credit hours when I dropped out from MPH courses and completed my Masters on H1B as a part-time student.

And yes, I have heard about people completing their PhD on H1B also.

[CleanSock]

Exactly...that is what i meant to say..making it current won't guarantee a GC but people would get at least get EAD making it beneficial. As you said, EAD does open up few doors for people especially dependents of Primary making it beneficial for them :)



Making dates "current" doesn't mean people will get GCs. It means ppl can apply for GCs. Secondly, CO will not make them current unless there is ZERO demand. Low or very low will not cut it. It was very very low in Oct / Nov / Dec this year but he didn't make it current.

[mbasense]

You cant go to school part time on H1?
I have heard ppl completing PhD on H1...

yes u can go to school on H1 or H4, anything that involves putting your money into the economy(go to school, buy a house etc.) you're welcome to do on a H1

[Spectator]

These seem to be partly published now http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all-form-types-performance-data-2012-qtr1.pdf

Although the Reports page (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) says it was published February 15, it was not there yesterday.

EB I-485 approvals were 31,541.

If we assume the full 27% visa numbers were allocated (37,800) then the difference is Consular Processed. That gives a CP % of 16.56%. That increase may be due to increasing numbers of EB3-Philippines CP cases.

EB I-140 Receipts for the quarter were 17,979 and 16,315 I-140 were approved.

[kd2008]

These seem to be partly published now http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all-form-types-performance-data-2012-qtr1.pdf

Although the Reports page (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) says it was published February 15, it was not there yesterday.

EB I-485 approvals were 31,541.

If we assume the full 27% visa numbers were allocated (37,800) then the difference is Consular Processed. That gives a CP % of 16.56%. That increase may be due to increasing numbers of EB3-Philippines CP cases.

EB I-140 Receipts for the quarter were 17,979 and 16,315 I-140 were approved.

Spec, do you think it is possible to figure out the number of cases that USCIS processed vs approvals from pre-adjudicated cases? It may be a rough estimate, but it may tell us if USCIS can process enough cases this fiscal year. A long-shot from these general numbers but I thought I would ask.

[Spectator]

Spec, do you think it is possible to figure out the number of cases that USCIS processed vs approvals from pre-adjudicated cases? It may be a rough estimate, but it may tell us if USCIS can process enough cases this fiscal year. A long-shot from these general numbers but I thought I would ask.kd,

I haven't had a look at that yet.

What I did notice was the I-485 receipt levels for EB.

Oct -- 8,497
Nov - 11,925
Dec - 15,023

Tot - 35,445

Those are much higher than I was expecting, although it isn't possible to isolate them further into Category and Country.

But they must be from Categories/Countries who have a Current PD, so it is either high EB2-IC receipts or high receipts from others that would affect spillover.

[kd2008]

kd,

I haven't had a look at that yet.

What I did notice was the I-485 receipt levels for EB.

Oct -- 8,497
Nov - 11,925
Dec - 15,023

Tot - 35,445

Those are much higher than I was expecting, although it isn't possible to isolate them further into Category and Country.

But they must be from Categories/Countries who have a Current PD, so it is either high EB2-IC receipts or high receipts from others that would affect spillover.

Yes, you are right. If you look at http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.pdf

The average in-take has been about 19.5K to 20K per quarter. It would suggest that the intake for EB2IC during Oct-Dec 2011 period is about 15K. That is quite high indeed.

[imdeng]

They might not have allocated the whole 27% (considering all the concerns about USCIS lagging behind) - so 16.56% is the upper limit for CP - it might be significantly less depending upon how far behind USCIS is from the 27% target level.

Does the level of incoming I-140 (18K/Q, 72K/Year) seem sustainable? After including dependents, EB1, EB2-NIW, this level of filing does not allow for the waitlist to go down in future, especially considering that this is a down-economy number.

These seem to be partly published now http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all-form-types-performance-data-2012-qtr1.pdf

Although the Reports page (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) says it was published February 15, it was not there yesterday.

EB I-485 approvals were 31,541.

If we assume the full 27% visa numbers were allocated (37,800) then the difference is Consular Processed. That gives a CP % of 16.56%. That increase may be due to increasing numbers of EB3-Philippines CP cases.

EB I-140 Receipts for the quarter were 17,979 and 16,315 I-140 were approved.

[kd2008]

They might not have allocated the whole 27% (considering all the concerns about USCIS lagging behind) - so 16.56% is the upper limit for CP - it might be significantly less depending upon how far behind USCIS is from the 27% target level.

Does the level of incoming I-140 (18K/Q, 72K/Year) seem sustainable? After including dependents, EB1, EB2-NIW, this level of filing does not allow for the waitlist to go down in future, especially considering that this is a down-economy number.

It is actually lower by about 2K compared to the average per quarter from last year.

[suninphx]

Yes, you are right. If you look at http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.pdf

The average in-take has been about 19.5K to 20K per quarter. It would suggest that the intake for EB2IC during Oct-Dec 2011 period is about 15K. That is quite high indeed.

Why 15K for Oct - Dec 2011 is high number? If we sustract PWMBs then number per month comes less than 2K(even if we discount for some people who have not filed yet). If 15K is the number near actual number then I dont think its high.

[imdeng]

15K is not very high for EB2IC for Q1FY2012 since that includes PD from 15-Apr-2007 to 15-Mar-2008. If we include PWMB@1K/month until 15-Aug and then fresh filers at 2K/month from 15-Aug to 15-Mar that comes to 18K.

Yes, you are right. If you look at http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.pdf

The average in-take has been about 19.5K to 20K per quarter. It would suggest that the intake for EB2IC during Oct-Dec 2011 period is about 15K. That is quite high indeed.

[kd2008]

From Spec's PERM data, There were 21.7K PERM approvals for the date movement - I am inlcuding only the post July 2007 approvals from Apr 15, 2007 to March 15, 2008. Assuming 15K apps were filed, it gives us an OR of 15/21.7 ~ 0.7.

[Kanmani]

But the inventory shows those numbers include some PWMBs and Porters . We should exclude them for calculating OR. Am I correct?

[kd2008]

It is matching the latest inventory total , why do you think it is high ?

It would have been better if it were closer to 10 to 12K. 15K implies slightly higher OR, resulting in slightly more severe retrogression if it happens.

[kd2008]

But the inventory shows those numbers include some PWMBs and Porters . We should exclude them for calculating OR. Am I correct?

Yes, for a precise calculation. Mine was rough one with a "~" and not a "=". Sorry for not being clear.

[Spectator]

They might not have allocated the whole 27% (considering all the concerns about USCIS lagging behind) - so 16.56% is the upper limit for CP - it might be significantly less depending upon how far behind USCIS is from the 27% target level.imdeng,

We know that part way through January, 34% had been allocated, so it was on target to reach the 36% allowed for 4 months, so I don't think it is a stretch to say it did reach 27% by the end of December.

[rockybaba]

YAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Until yesterday, i was singing this

"Dhinka chika Dhinka Chika Hey hey hey heeeeeeee!!

Baarah saloon mein...baarah tareekon se...mujhgo GC ka intezaar hai re!!!

Dhinka chika Dhinka Chika Hey hey hey heeeeeeee!!"

Today... here's my new song

"Aaao jee Aao jee......Dil se dil milao jee....Aa gaya hai dekho GREENCARD !!!

Aaao jee Aao jee......Dil se dil milao jee....Aa gaya hai dekho GREENCARD !!!"

Both me and my wife have been approved!!

Thanks everybody, especially the gurus....y'all have made the journey fun and easy...!

Hungama Hungama hojayega hungama...

[kkruna]

An implication from the data is that they can process "new I-485" at 10K+ per month. That should settle concerns about "slow processing" by USCIS?

[CleanSock]

Congratulations rockybaba. It came on a friday, right in time for a weekend party. Enjoy! :)





YAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Until yesterday, i was singing this

"Dhinka chika Dhinka Chika Hey hey hey heeeeeeee!!

Baarah saloon mein...baarah tareekon se...mujhgo GC ka intezaar hai re!!!

Dhinka chika Dhinka Chika Hey hey hey heeeeeeee!!"

Today... here's my new song

"Aaao jee Aao jee......Dil se dil milao jee....Aa gaya hai dekho GREENCARD !!!

Aaao jee Aao jee......Dil se dil milao jee....Aa gaya hai dekho GREENCARD !!!"

Both me and my wife have been approved!!

Thanks everybody, especially the gurus....y'all have made the journey fun and easy...!

Hungama Hungama hojayega hungama...

[CleanSock]

Spec, Why is there a sudden surge in applications in Dec 2011? Also, how is it possible that the number of approvals in October 2011 is higher than the number of receipts?




These seem to be partly published now http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all-form-types-performance-data-2012-qtr1.pdf

Although the Reports page (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) says it was published February 15, it was not there yesterday.

EB I-485 approvals were 31,541.

If we assume the full 27% visa numbers were allocated (37,800) then the difference is Consular Processed. That gives a CP % of 16.56%. That increase may be due to increasing numbers of EB3-Philippines CP cases.

EB I-140 Receipts for the quarter were 17,979 and 16,315 I-140 were approved.

[kd2008]

An implication from the data is that they can process "new I-485" at 10K+ per month. That should settle concerns about "slow processing" by USCIS?

There were about 7K to 8.5K pre-adjudicated EB2IC cases at the beginning of the quarter. All the AOS approvals in EB3 are pre-adjudicated and that number would be about 6K to 7K or so. So out of the 31K approvals about 14K or so were not technically processed. Only about 17K to 19K were processed. Going forward it has to process 25K or so per quarter as there are no pre-adjudicated EB2IC cases left so to speak. That is quite a jump to achieve.

[kd2008]

Spec, Why is there a sudden surge in applications in Dec 2011? Also, how is it possible that the number of approvals in October 2011 is higher than the number of receipts?

The approvals include the pre-adjudicated cases from APr 15 to July 15 hence the approvals are more than receipts.

[Spectator]

Why 15K for Oct - Dec 2011 is high number? If we sustract PWMBs then number per month comes less than 2K(even if we discount for some people who have not filed yet). If 15K is the number near actual number then I dont think its high.Don't get fixated on the 15k figure.

Look at the actual monthly figures themselves, which represent EB1 - EB5, then subtract what numbers you expect represent EB1, EB2-non IC, EB4 & EB5. I think any EB3 contribution can largely be discounted in the numbers.

What's left must be the EB2-IC numbers.

The higher numbers you use for other Categories, the lower the OR, but the less the Spillover and vice versa.

[CleanSock]

Oh ok..I got it now. Thanks :)

[suninphx]

Don't get fixated on the 15k figure.

Look at the actual monthly figures themselves, which represent EB1 - EB5, then subtract what numbers you expect represent EB1, EB2-non IC, EB4 & EB5. I think any EB3 contribution can largely be discounted in the numbers.

What's left must be the EB2-IC numbers.

The higher numbers you use for other Categories, the lower the OR, but the less the Spillover and vice versa.

Spec,

I agree that I did not do any analysis of numbers of my own. I was just responding to what KD mentioned as 15K to be high. And response was in that context.

Thanks for tips for estimating Eb2IC in take.Will try to do some primary analysis over weekend.
I have a different view than Teddy on what would be main contributor for final resting point for this FY (SOFAD Vs DD). For me it's more of DD which will make the final resting point for this FY to pushed further than Mar 08 (original estimate on this forum). So my analysis may get biased because of that. But let's see. Haven't seen actual numbers yet.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec,

I agree that I did not do any analysis of numbers of my own. I was just responding to what KD mentioned as 15K to be high. And response was in that context.

Thanks for tips for estimating Eb2IC in take.Will try to do some primary analysis over weekend.
I have a different view than Teddy on what would be main contributor for final resting point for this FY (SOFAD Vs DD). For me it's more of DD which will make the final resting point for this FY to pushed further than Mar 08 (original estimate on this forum). So my analysis may get biased because of that. But let's see. Haven't seen actual numbers yet.

Sun I respect your views, I thought we agreed on the OR range as 0.7 - 0.8. My point is unless the SOFAD is significantly higher we possibly cannot explain the number of approvals, Iam projecting a change from the estimate of 22K to 38K that is far bigger that a change in OR from .8 to say .7 or for that matter even from 1 to .7. I will look forward to your analysis. Iam sure you also do not believe the Jan inventory at face value.

[reddyedula]

My PD is June 2011 and I have received Fee Notice from NVC. Just this morning I had replied to someone with Oct 2010 saying I do not expect it anytime soon ;)

is that really true i cant believe it mine june 29th 2011 . my 140 - 3.5 months -still initial review. i already gave up getting gc in near future .

[immi2910]

Don't get fixated on the 15k figure.

Look at the actual monthly figures themselves, which represent EB1 - EB5, then subtract what numbers you expect represent EB1, EB2-non IC, EB4 & EB5. I think any EB3 contribution can largely be discounted in the numbers.

What's left must be the EB2-IC numbers.

The higher numbers you use for other Categories, the lower the OR, but the less the Spillover and vice versa.

I still do not understand why you think the numbers are high. Looking at last year the average was ~20K/Quarter or ~7K/Month. This was when EB2 IC were unable to file. In Q1 of FY 2012 the numbers are 8,500; 12,000 & 15,000. Assuming trend from last year holds we can assume ~7K/month is for all other categories and EB2IC numbers are: 1,500; 5,500 & 8,000.

Month --- PD ------- EB2IC Applicants
Oct ----- 7/15/07 -- 1,500 (representing PWMB)
Nov ----- 11/1/08 -- 5,500 (5500 applicants in 3.5 months ~ 1570 / month)
Dec ----- 3/15/08 -- 8,000 (8000 applicants in 4.5 months ~ 1800 / month)

As far as I can tell based on PERM Data this is a lower number as everyone was expecting it to be north of 2000/month (or at least I was).

Yes compared to last year numbers are high but you would expect them to be higher since EB2IC applications are hitting the system whereas earlier they weren't. Did you mean that you expected to see 30K but the number was 35K?

[immi2910]

Sun I respect your views, I thought we agreed on the OR range as 0.7 - 0.8. My point is unless the SOFAD is significantly higher we possibly cannot explain the number of approvals, Iam projecting a change from the estimate of 22K to 38K that is far bigger that a change in OR from .8 to say .7 or for that matter even from 1 to .7. I will look forward to your analysis. Iam sure you also do not believe the Jan inventory at face value.

Teddy, based on the I485 receipts, there were 15,000 applicants up to PD of Mar 15 2008 or ~ 1,600 / month. Assuming this trend hold with 22K SOFAD + 5K (regular quota), you would expect additional approval for 7.5 months i.e. up to Dec 1 2008. Now if you expect the demand to be lower in later half of 2008 then even with 22K SOFAD you will get in to early 2009.

[immi2910]

is that really true i cant believe it mine june 29th 2011 . my 140 - 3.5 months -still initial review. i already gave up getting gc in near future .

Yes it is :). I applied I140 premium as my 6 years were expiring.

[Spectator]

I still do not understand why you think the numbers are high. Looking at last year the average was ~20K/Quarter or ~7K/Month. This was when EB2 IC were unable to file. In Q1 of FY 2012 the numbers are 8,500; 12,000 & 15,000. Assuming trend from last year holds we can assume ~7K/month is for all other categories and EB2IC numbers are: 1,500; 5,500 & 8,000.

How would you split that 7k per month for everyone else?

EB1 = ??
EB2-non IC = ??
EB4 = ??
EB5 = ??

All of EB3 are retrogressed, so there won't be many new I-485s from them.

7k per month is 84k per year. If EB4 uses 10k and EB5 uses 6k, then EB1 & EB2-non IC must use 68k between them, versus the 74.4k allocation. Spillover would only be 6.4k from them.

Higher would be a more accurate description than high.

[suninphx]

Sun I respect your views, I thought we agreed on the OR range as 0.7 - 0.8. My point is unless the SOFAD is significantly higher we possibly cannot explain the number of approvals, Iam projecting a change from the estimate of 22K to 38K that is far bigger that a change in OR from .8 to say .7 or for that matter even from 1 to .7. I will look forward to your analysis. Iam sure you also do not believe the Jan inventory at face value.

Teddy,

I have different view than your in terms of 'what will push final resting point'..... As I understood from your post few days back , your opinion is that final resting point may be Jan 2009 mainly because of much higher SOFAD. My view is final resting point may be somewhere last quarter of CY 2008 and that would be mainly because of DD than higher SOFAD(of course SOFAD will contribute). I am not convinced yet that we will get 35K+ SOFAD this FY.

For me, any SOFAD more than 25K+ is going to be artificial one(because of processing delays etc) eventually eating up into next year numbers. But thats fine I guess..many PD2008 people will get their GC much earlier.

And yes - not taking Jan inventory to its face value. Those numbers are ridiculously low.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I have different view than your in terms of 'what will push final resting point'..... As I understood from your post few days back , your opinion is that final resting point may be Jan 2009 mainly because of much higher SOFAD. My view is final resting point may be somwhere last quarter of CY 2008 and that would be mainky because of DD than higher SOFAD(ofcourse SOFAD will contribute). I am not conviced yet that we will get 35K+ SOFAD this FY.

For me, any SOFAD more than 25K+ is going to be artificial one(because of processing delays etc) eventaully eating up into next year numbers. But thats fine I guess..many PD2008 people will get their GC much earlier.

Fine I understand your point of view so your SOFAD expectation is 25K and let’s say mine is 35K, what is the OR that you are proposing ball park, mine is 0.75 this way we will have a clearer understanding. Regardless its good all 2008 cases will get GC sooner.

[reddyedula]

i just entered 5th year of my h1b , I thought it better to go for regular . in nov 2011 i thought there will not much movement in VB cutoff dates . my hubbi he just entered 4th year of his h1b -his 140 approved

[qesehmk]

I think immi2910 has a point. Since if anything - economy has improved so 485 for EB1->EB5 less EB2IC can't go down. So 7K is a good assumption. It doesn't matter what the composition is since in the end all SOFAD will flow to EB2IC. EB3 is a moot point.

So basically the dates movement resulted in 1.5K, 5 and 8K EB2IC demand in Oct - Nov and Dec respectively.

In dec 2011, the EB2IC date was 15 Mar 2008. So between Aug2007-Mar2008 there is bsaically approx 14.5K EB2IC numbers. Thats about 2K per month. I think that's just about right for EB2IC or slightly lower. But it is nowhere near where we are thinking demand destruction has happened.

I think the date movement is quite artificial. Just look at the approvals. They are ~36K right in USCIS Q1 2012. That's 10K EB3, 14K EB1. So only 12K for EB2 whereas EB2 had 24K. So there is no way EB2IC would require any date movement even if spillover was available.

I think CO has done proactive date movement and its a great thing he has done. But all I am saying is the whole idea that demand destruction is large is probably not true. At least not to the extent we are thinking.

At the same time - I do admit right now as I write this I have looked at Jan 2012 inventory and compared it to OCt 2011 one. May be that could uncover a few more things.

But bottomline- based on what I see so far - I think it would be a mistake to assume that dates are moving because of demand destruction. They are NOT. Also it would be a mistake to believe that they will not retro beyond Mid 2008. Just as much they have gone beyond where they could've gone in one direction .... they could very well move in other direction beyond where they really should. But we can say with confidence that they will not move beyond Q1 2008 in a sustainable manner. The more I tihnk about it, Q1 2008 seems where we will end 2012 and pick up 2013 from EB2IC perspective. So again .... those current ... make hay while sun shines and file 485 ASAP. EB2IC may not touch 2010 for another 2 years.


How would you split that 7k per month for everyone else?

EB1 = ??
EB2-non IC = ??
EB4 = ??
EB5 = ??

All of EB3 are retrogressed, so there won't be many new I-485s from them.

7k per month is 84k per year. If EB4 uses 10k and EB5 uses 6k, then EB1 & EB2-non IC must use 68k between them, versus the 74.4k allocation. Spillover would only be 6.4k from them.

[immi2910]

How would you split that 7k per month for everyone else?

EB1 = ??
EB2-non IC = ??
EB4 = ??
EB5 = ??

All of EB3 are retrogressed, so there won't be many new I-485s from them.

7k per month is 84k per year. If EB4 uses 10k and EB5 uses 6k, then EB1 & EB2-non IC must use 68k between them, versus the 74.4k allocation. Spillover would only be 6.4k from them.

Higher would be a more accurate description than high.

Do we really need to split it across all the categories?

Total visas are 140K and EB3 is 40K. Total available for EB1,2,4 & 5 = 100K. Of this if we assume 78K* is used by EB1,4,5 & 2(non IC) then SOFAD ~ 16.5K (assuming 5.5K IC quota), which I agree is low. Total IC visas = 22K.

* I used 78K and not 84K since those were the receipts last year. 7K /month was just an approximation I used to make calculation easier in my previous post.

Were you expecting Spillover to be higher? Of the 22K total IC visas 15K will be used by PD up to Mar 15 2008. Assuming 1,600 IC visas / month implies that everyone up to Aug 1 2008 will get GC.

[suninphx]

I think immi2910 has a point. Since if anything - economy has improved so 485 for EB1->EB5 less EB2IC can't go down. So 7K is a good assumption. It doesn't matter what the composition is since in the end all SOFAD will flow to EB2IC. EB3 is a moot point.

So basically the dates movement resulted in 1.5K, 5 and 8K EB2IC demand in Oct - Nov and Dec respectively.

In dec 2011, the EB2IC date was 15 Mar 2008. So between Aug2007-Mar2008 there is bsaically approx 14.5K EB2IC numbers. Thats about 2K per month. I think that's just about right for EB2IC or slightly lower. But it is nowhere near where we are thinking demand destruction has happened.

I think the date movement is quite artificial. Just look at the approvals. They are ~36K right in USCIS Q1 2012. That's 10K EB3, 14K EB1. So only 12K for EB2 whereas EB2 had 24K. So there is no way EB2IC would require any date movement even if spillover was available.

I think CO has done proactive date movement and its a great thing he has done. But all I am saying is the whole idea that demand destruction is large is probably not true. At least not to the extent we are thinking.

At the same time - I do admit right now as I write this I have looked at Jan 2012 inventory and compared it to OCt 2011 one. May be that could uncover a few more things.

But bottomline- based on what I see so far - I think it would be a mistake to assume that dates are moving because of demand destruction. They are NOT. Also it would be a mistake to believe that they will not retro beyond Mid 2008. Just as much they have gone beyond where they could've gone in one direction .... they could very well move in other direction beyond where they really should. But we can say with confidence that they will not move beyond Q1 2008 in a sustainable manner. The more I tihnk about it, Q1 2008 seems where we will end 2012 and pick up 2013 from EB2IC perspective. So again .... those current ... make hay while sun shines and file 485 ASAP. EB2IC may not touch 2010 for another 2 years.

Q,

I think every one understands that date movement is NOT becuase of DD. Right now we are debating where FY2012 will end and whether that will be because of higher DD or higher SOFAD.
Also if you are denying that there is DD, then I will have to disagree with you.

[immi2910]

Q,

I think every one understands that date movement is NOT becuase of DD. Right now we are debating where FY2012 will end and whether that will be because of higher DD or higher SOFAD.
Also if you are denying that there is DD, then I will have to disagree with you.

I agree there with Demand Destruction theory based on the data that Spectator provided. I was assuming over 2K visas a month based on PERM but the actual data is close 1.6K a month. See my earlier posts for details.

[kkruna]

Last years I-485 numbers was 78,302 at average of 6526. Plus, do we need to account for "lesser I-485" this year from ROW due to PERM delays? This would also mean higher IC proportion in the numbers for Oct-Dec this year...


How would you split that 7k per month for everyone else?

EB1 = ??
EB2-non IC = ??
EB4 = ??
EB5 = ??

All of EB3 are retrogressed, so there won't be many new I-485s from them.

7k per month is 84k per year. If EB4 uses 10k and EB5 uses 6k, then EB1 & EB2-non IC must use 68k between them, versus the 74.4k allocation. Spillover would only be 6.4k from them.

Higher would be a more accurate description than high.

[Kanmani]

Fine I understand your point of view so your SOFAD expectation is 25K and let’s say mine is 35K, what is the OR that you are proposing ball park, mine is 0.75 this way we will have a clearer understanding. Regardless its good all 2008 cases will get GC sooner.

May I join you guys? My OR is 0.55 :)

2008 - 0.50
2009 - 0.60

[Spectator]

Do we really need to split it across all the categories?

Total visas are 140K and EB3 is 40K. Total available for EB1,2,4 & 5 = 100K. Of this if we assume 78K* is used by EB1,4,5 & 2(non IC) then SOFAD ~ 16.5K (assuming 5.5K IC quota), which I agree is low. Total IC visas = 22K.

* I used 78K and not 84K since those were the receipts last year. 7K /month was just an approximation I used to make calculation easier in my previous post.

Were you expecting Spillover to be higher? Of the 22K total IC visas 15K will be used by PD up to Mar 15 2008. Assuming 1,600 IC visas / month implies that everyone up to Aug 1 2008 will get GC.immi2910,

Probably not.

You made the point I was wanting to convey.

It is difficult to have a low O.R. AND high SOFAD based on the figures in the report.

Higher SOFAD also means a higher OR, which limits date movement. 3 months data isn't really enough to work on, since the data can be quite "lumpy".

[kd2008]

Do we really need to split it across all the categories?

Total visas are 140K and EB3 is 40K. Total available for EB1,2,4 & 5 = 100K. Of this if we assume 78K* is used by EB1,4,5 & 2(non IC) then SOFAD ~ 16.5K (assuming 5.5K IC quota), which I agree is low. Total IC visas = 22K.

* I used 78K and not 84K since those were the receipts last year. 7K /month was just an approximation I used to make calculation easier in my previous post.

Were you expecting Spillover to be higher? Of the 22K total IC visas 15K will be used by PD up to Mar 15 2008. Assuming 1,600 IC visas / month implies that everyone up to Aug 1 2008 will get GC.

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2010, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 17.5K
FY 2011 Receipts = 78K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 26.3K
Visas used up = 17.5K + 78K - 26.3K = 69.2K
Quota for EB1+EB2+EB4+EB5= 100K
EB2IC usage for FY 2011 = 100K - 69.2K = 30.8K <--- This was our SOFAD last year.

So you see not all receipts are approved in the same year and this will affect your calculation.

[immi2910]

May I join you guys? My OR is 0.55 :)

2008 - 0.50
2009 - 0.60

I understand OR is the I485 applications to PERM ratio but what does it stand for?

[kd2008]

immi2910,

Probably not.

You made the point I was wanting to convey.

It is difficult to have a low O.R. AND high SOFAD based on the figures in the report.

Higher SOFAD also means a higher OR, which limits date movement. 3 months data isn't really enough to work on, since the data can be quite "lumpy".

Spec, SOFAD estimates are usually possible and may be we get them correctly with the way we all make these predictions. OR is something we have been fashioning to estimate future demand and we well may be wrong on it.

[suninphx]

I understand OR is the I485 applications to PERM ratio but what does it stand for?

Please refer this post:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?656-Overall-Ratio-Transformation-Factor-Demand-Destruction-An-Explanation-of-Terms

[immi2910]

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2010, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 17.5K
FY 2011 Receipts = 78K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 26.3K
Visas used up = 17.5K + 78K - 26.3K = 69.2K
Quota for EB1+EB2+EB4+EB5= 100K
EB2IC usage for FY 2011 = 100K - 69.2K = 30.8K <--- This was our SOFAD last year.

So you see not all receipts are approved in the same year and this will affect your calculation.

I am sorry but I do not understand why you reduced 26.3K. Also, when you say SOFAD do you mean just spillover or spillover + IC quota?

I am working under the assumption that there are 1,600 application a month (probably fewer in late 2008 and whole of 2009). 15K visas will be used up to 15 Mar 2008. So beyond that it is a simple calculation ((SOFAD + IC Quota (~5.5K) - 15000)/1600)

[TeddyKoochu]

May I join you guys? My OR is 0.55 :)

2008 - 0.50
2009 - 0.60

Thanks Kamnani, let me tabulate

Teddy - 0.75
Kanmani - .55 (I just averaged).
Spec and Sun lets have your responses based on your latest thoughts. Dec filings ae being approved pretty consistently the only way this is possible is that the SOFAd is huge thanks to EB2 ROW.

[immi2910]

Please refer this post:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?656-Overall-Ratio-Transformation-Factor-Demand-Destruction-An-Explanation-of-Terms

Thank You. It was driving me nuts trying to come up with a name for letter O :). I had guessed, correctly I might add, what R was.

[kkruna]

These calcs assume same number of ROW I-485 (we have to make some assumption). What if this assumption is incorrect?

[immi2910]

These calcs assume same number of ROW I-485 (we have to make some assumption). What if this assumption is incorrect?

Well, if ROW I-485 is higher then IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

If ROW I-485 is lower then IC applications are higer than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be higher but since IC application are high the dates will not progress as far.

Spec was alluding to this interplay between SOFAD and OR.

[kkruna]

Yes but they are moving dates to consume total number of available visa (on quarterly basis?). They are not looking for IC or ROW. SOFAD gets into internal function between IC and ROW whereas the only real constraint is overall number for total visas.


Well, if ROW I-485 is higher then IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

If ROW I-485 is lower then IC applications are higer than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be higher but since IC application are high the dates will not progress as far.

Spec was alluding to this interplay between SOFAD and OR.

[kd2008]

I am sorry but I do not understand why you reduced 26.3K. Also, when you say SOFAD do you mean just spillover or spillover + IC quota?

I am working under the assumption that there are 1,600 application a month (probably fewer in late 2008 and whole of 2009). 15K visas will be used up to 15 Mar 2008. So beyond that it is a simple calculation ((SOFAD + IC Quota (~5.5K) - 15000)/1600)

Because these cases are still in the inventory and have not consumed any visas. So when you calculate number of visas used, you subtract the remaining inventory from previous year's inventory and the receipts for the year.

I have two apples, I get four apples from you and next day I have three apples. Then how many did I eat? 2+4 -3 = 3.

[kd2008]

Well, if ROW I-485 is higher then IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

If ROW I-485 is lower then IC applications are higer than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be higher but since IC application are high the dates will not progress as far.

Spec was alluding to this interplay between SOFAD and OR.

Yes, this will be true on an annual basis and if all the cases are processed, and numbers are homogeneously distributed trough out the year. But this is literally never the case. We are truly trying to determine the effect of intake inhomogeneity (8.5K pre-adjudicated to start the year + Large EB2IC intake at the start of year) and inventory inhomogeneity (a large ROW inventory at the start of the year). Their combined effect is not linear depending on to what degree USCIS processes either of these first.

So far the contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.

[qesehmk]

I do not think every one necessarily thinks that date movement is NOT because of DD. (in other words i think there are people who think that date movement is because of DD). I of course believe that date movement is because of policy as opposed to immediate necessity let alone DD. I do believe that there is some DD but not enough.

Just to be sure we understand each other ... My definition of DD would be people who have an approved labor and had to leave the 485 process due to economic conditions. The reduction in labor due to economic conditions is not destruction. The reason i wouldn't take the latter in account is because throughout last decade ... yearly labor approvals vary for a variety of reasons. There is some cyclicality to that already. DD is a factor on top of that cyclicality. So from that perspective 2K per month demand as against 2.2-2.6K overall labor demand for corresponding months doesn't indicate a lot of demand destruction. Mind you 2K per month receipts do not include people who are simply late in filing and also exclude people who chose to file CP.

I understand that in the end we are interested in where we will end and why. My gut feel remains the same. Q1 2008 and the SOFAD should be very similar to last year. The reason being ... fundamentally nothing has changed. We have no reason to believe the demand is going to change from lst year to this. Just my perspective... don't meant to criticize .


Q,

I think every one understands that date movement is NOT becuase of DD. Right now we are debating where FY2012 will end and whether that will be because of higher DD or higher SOFAD.
Also if you are denying that there is DD, then I will have to disagree with you.

[Spectator]

Last years I-485 numbers was 78,302 at average of 6526. Plus, do we need to account for "lesser I-485" this year from ROW due to PERM delays? This would also mean higher IC proportion in the numbers for Oct-Dec this year...kkruna,

I think that is a good point and thanks for raising it.

My view is that if an EB2-non IC was able to submit an I-485 in Q1, then probably they obtained the PWD before the problems, given the time taken for Recruitment and PERM. I could be wrong.

It could well be a factor to consider in later months - I don't know how it is going to be quantified.

[immi2910]

Because these cases are still in the inventory and have not consumed any visas. So when you calculate number of visas used, you subtract the remaining inventory from previous year's inventory and the receipts for the year.

I have two apples, I get four apples from you and next day I have three apples. Then how many did I eat? 2+4 -3 = 3.

Thanks I understand it now.

[kd2008]

CM on the US nonimmigrants blog calculates his OR as 0.65 (which is still higher than the current observation of 0.42), and the revised end date is almost the end of 2008. I think Gurus at the beginning of the year were advocating Q1 2008 as the end date, but it must be revised given the date movement and the latest inventory data. I don't think the DOS will move the dates by "more than 2 years" and stick the EAD/AP renewal bill for thousands of people to the USCIS. Q1/2008 corresponded to an OR of about 0.9...but current data suggests OR is far less.

USCIS is already jacking up processing times for EB1 and EB2-ROW. They will continue to delay other categories to make way for EB2-IC...at least until April 2010 is cleared, because they have set the high watermark here. SOFAD will be more than last year...35K (as per Teddy) or even 40K. Also, many cases are going to end up in RFEs...think of RFEs as temporary demand destruction. Perhaps the dates will stall, but at least they won't retrogress if there are RFEs, and that's why I believe even many people from 2009 will receive GCs this year, and the dates may retrogress to the end of 2008 if at all.

I hope SOFAD is that high. But it may probably be what it was last year. May be a 2K or 3K more if at all that much and we are lucky.

[suninphx]

I do not think every one necessarily thinks that date movement is NOT because of DD. (in other words i think there are people who think that date movement is because of DD). I of course believe that date movement is because of policy as opposed to immediate necessity let alone DD. I do believe that there is some DD but not enough.

Just to be sure we understand each other ... My definition of DD would be people who have an approved labor and had to leave the 485 process due to economic conditions. The reduction in labor due to economic conditions is not destruction. The reason i wouldn't take the latter in account is because throughout last decade ... yearly labor approvals vary for a variety of reasons. There is some cyclicality to that already. DD is a factor on top of that cyclicality. So from that perspective 2K per month demand as against 2.2-2.6K overall labor demand for corresponding months doesn't indicate a lot of demand destruction. Mind you 2K per month receipts do not include people who are simply late in filing and also exclude people who chose to file CP.

I understand that in the end we are interested in where we will end and why. My gut feel remains the same. Q1 2008 and the SOFAD should be very similar to last year. The reason being ... fundamentally nothing has changed. We have no reason to believe the demand is going to change from lst year to this. Just my perspective... don't meant to criticize .

Q, thanks for your thoughts.

If I remember correctly, we started with demand of 2500+/month when discussion started initially. Then this DD funda came in and then demand was revised down to 2200/month + porting ...still making it around 2500/month. Now even if the data we have is not sufficient and there is large scope for error in calculations , there is high chance that 'actual demand' may be less than 2000/month. So whether its 1600/month or 1800/month..that would be any one's guess(And I would think it will be ven lesser for 2009). And this includes porting numbers. So that would be clear cut reduction of about 25%. For me its sizable reduction.
My OR assumption is around 0.68 and that will take us in last quarter of CY2008 by end of FY2012. (Ofcourse if dates stay current then few Feb/Mar filers can get GCs affecting this date based on how many of them get lucky).

[kd2008]

Yes, this will be true on an annual basis and if all the cases are processed, and numbers are homogeneously distributed trough out the year. But this is literally never the case. We are truly trying to determine the effect of intake inhomogeneity (8.5K pre-adjudicated to start the year + Large EB2IC intake at the start of year) and inventory inhomogeneity (a large ROW inventory at the start of the year). Their combined effect is not linear depending on to what degree USCIS processes either of these first.

So far the contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.

Based on the above analysis:

This is my analysis for Q1 FY 2012

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 26.3K
Q1 FY 2012 Receipts = 35.5K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
Lets us say EB2IC receipts =X
Therefore the receipts from rest of the categories = 35.5 -X
From I-485 Inventory of Jan 2012, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 29.9K
Visas used up by EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 18.5K

26.3K + (35.5K -X) - 29.9K = 18.5K
Solve for X, X = 13.4K

These are probably the receipts for EB2IC in Q1 FY 2012.

This would imply, EB2ROW I-485 is higher, IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

[Houston_boy]

Hi Gurus

My 8th year H1B extension got a RFE which my company needs to reply back by 16 May 2012. But my I140 is approved with PD of July 2010 EB2 India. My plan is if my dates become current in April VB or May VB then can I apply I-485 and submit the RFE on the last day (16 May 2012).

My question is : If my H1B renewal gets rejected, can I continue to stay legally in US with the case pending with AOS (subject to 485 becomes current with my PD) waiting for my EAD card to receive?

Does the company run payroll in that status ?
Please reply

Best regs
Houston_Boy

[immi2910]

Based on the above analysis:

This is my analysis for Q1 FY 2012

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 26.3K
Q1 FY 2012 Receipts = 35.5K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
Lets us say EB2IC receipts =X
Therefore the receipts from rest of the categories = 35.5 -X
From I-485 Inventory of Jan 2012, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 29.9K
Visas used up by EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 18.5K

26.3K + (35.5K -X) - 29.9K = 18.5K
Solve for X, X = 13.4K

These are probably the receipts for EB2IC in Q1 FY 2012.

This would imply, EB2ROW I-485 is higher, IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

Where did you get Visas used up for EB1,2(non-IC),4 & 5?

[Kanmani]

My 8th year H1B extension got a RFE which my company needs to reply back by 16 May 2012. But my I140 is approved with PD of July 2010 EB2 India. My plan is if my dates become current in April VB or May VB then can I apply I-485 and submit the RFE on the last day (16 May 2012).
You can apply I-485 even if the H1b extension is pending. Your RFE documents must reach USCIS on or before the date noted in the notice.
My question is : If my H1B renewal gets rejected, can I continue to stay legally in US with the case pending with AOS (subject to 485 becomes current with my PD) waiting for my EAD card to receive?
Yes
Does the company run payroll in that status ?
No, they cannot run the payroll between the end date of the current H1b and EAD receipt date

[kd2008]

Where did you get Visas used up for EB1,2(non-IC),4 & 5?

my post starts with based on above analysis. Please read that. I am repeating it below. It is an estimation and not data.


Yes, this will be true on an annual basis and if all the cases are processed, and numbers are homogeneously distributed trough out the year. But this is literally never the case. We are truly trying to determine the effect of intake inhomogeneity (8.5K pre-adjudicated to start the year + Large EB2IC intake at the start of year) and inventory inhomogeneity (a large ROW inventory at the start of the year). Their combined effect is not linear depending on to what degree USCIS processes either of these first.

So far the contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.

From the above post. Basically, about 6.5K Eb2IC were approved out of the 8.5K that were pre-adjudicated with PDs between Apr 15 and July 15, 2007 based on Jan 2012 I-485 inventory, it appears. Not an exact number.

[Houston_boy]

Does the company run payroll in that status ?
No, they cannot run the payroll between the end date of the current H1b and EAD receipt date

Hi Kanmani

Thanks for the reply. My actual H1B ended on Feb 02, 2012, is that is the end date of current H1B or the denail (in case) date of H1B lets say May 2012 ?

regs

[Kanmani]

Hi Kanmani

Thanks for the reply. My actual H1B ended on Feb 02, 2012, is that is the end date of current H1B or the denail (in case) date of H1B lets say May 2012 ?

regs
Whenever your extension is pending with USCIS, you are allowed to continue in the job even after the current H1b is ended. In case if the extension petition is denied, then the beneficiary is out of status from the end date of the H1b.

[qesehmk]

The chances that the RFE will result in denial of extension, are minimal IMHO.
However should that become the case, then assuming your have filed 485 will allow you to continue to stay in the country. But AOS by itself doesnt allow you to work unless you have an EAD. Same thing applies to AC21. AOS by itself allows AC21 but AOS by itself never substitutes to EAD (i.e. work authorization).


Hi Gurus

My 8th year H1B extension got a RFE which my company needs to reply back by 16 May 2012. But my I140 is approved with PD of July 2010 EB2 India. My plan is if my dates become current in April VB or May VB then can I apply I-485 and submit the RFE on the last day (16 May 2012).

My question is : If my H1B renewal gets rejected, can I continue to stay legally in US with the case pending with AOS (subject to 485 becomes current with my PD) waiting for my EAD card to receive?

Does the company run payroll in that status ?
Please reply

Best regs
Houston_Boy

[suninphx]

Whenever your extension is pending with USCIS, you are allowed to continue in the job even after the current H1b is ended. In case if the extension petition is denied, then the beneficiary is out of status from the end date of the H1b.

Allowed to work till 240 days (after notice date or rceipt date not sure )

[qesehmk]

SPHX - based on USCIS data, I calculated EB2IC in oct-nov-dec to be at approx 2K per month of 2007 - pls see my previous post. For that 2K to be less means EB1 and EB2ROW will have to be more ie more than 7K i.e. more than last year's rate per month. Regardless of state of economy EB2IC / EB2ROW ratio should remain constant and as such I think it is highly unlikley that EB2ROW will be more and EB2IC will be less at the same time (compared to the prior yer values).

However I do concede the point that DD could be upto 25%. That's possible. But asI said thats not high enough to cause the date movements which IMHO is completely policy driven (again!).

As per CM's prediction - I generally do not follow his blog. However I do read it sometimes whenver somebody puts a line or two recommending that we read something there. I have good regard for him/her. However on EB2IC reaching 2008Q4 during USCIS Fiscal 2012 I have to strongly disagree. I am 100% confident that's not going to happen.

Sorry ... don't mean to ruin somebody's hopes. But neither I want to give false hopes to people.

Q, thanks for your thoughts.

If I remember correctly, we started with demand of 2500+/month when discussion started initially. Then this DD funda came in and then demand was revised down to 2200/month + porting ...still making it around 2500/month. Now even if the data we have is not sufficient and there is large scope for error in calculations , there is high chance that 'actual demand' may be less than 2000/month. So whether its 1600/month or 1800/month..that would be any one's guess(And I would think it will be ven lesser for 2009). And this includes porting numbers. So that would be clear cut reduction of about 25%. For me its sizable reduction.
My OR assumption is around 0.68 and that will take us in last quarter of CY2008 by end of FY2012. (Ofcourse if dates stay current then few Feb/Mar filers can get GCs affecting this date based on how many of them get lucky).


CM on the US nonimmigrants blog calculates his OR as 0.65 (which is still higher than the current observation of 0.42), and the revised end date is almost the end of 2008. I think Gurus at the beginning of the year were advocating Q1 2008 as the end date, but it must be revised given the date movement and the latest inventory data. I don't think the DOS will move the dates by "more than 2 years" and stick the EAD/AP renewal bill for thousands of people to the USCIS. Q1/2008 corresponded to an OR of about 0.9...but current data suggests OR is far less.

USCIS is already jacking up processing times for EB1 and EB2-ROW. They will continue to delay other categories to make way for EB2-IC...at least until April 2010 is cleared, because they have set the high watermark here. SOFAD will be more than last year...35K (as per Teddy) or even 40K. Also, many cases are going to end up in RFEs...think of RFEs as temporary demand destruction. Perhaps the dates will stall, but at least they won't retrogress if there are RFEs, and that's why I believe even many people from 2009 will receive GCs this year, and the dates may retrogress to the end of 2008 if at all.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends just did a simple query on Trackitt for EB2 ROW + Primary + Approved
Oct 2010 - Feb 2011 - 184
Oct 2011 - Feb 2012 - 170
This means ROW has almost caught up considering we still have days in Feb, ROW was lagging back big time initially the exact same thing had happened last year.
Now if CO's statement of flat utilization of 9% per month is indeed true then in 5 months we have already seen 18K SOFAD at this rate we should see SOFAD in excess of 35K. For this to be true it appears that there is actually a larger sample of people on Trackitt now than in the past. If the pace of approvals is that high then reaching 01-JAN-2009 by Sep 2012 is a possibility. 18K in 5 months can easily be extrapolated to 36K in 12 months. I don’t believe that demand destruction could really be worse than a corresponding OR of 0.75 which would make it 1650 a month EB2 I/C this is my personal belief however I respect everyone’s opinion.
As of now even Dec cases are being approved quite consistently so surely even in the worst case scenario everyone till 15th Mar 2008 should get approved. I think that the approval volumes will be high in Q3 as well but will subside in Q4 where the allocation is less. Next VB will be very interesting to see the direction. Most important thing is how sound is the basis for the current approvals assuming its in the 9% per month boundary.
Here is how I came up with the 18K figure. Pre Oct Average of Inventory and Demand data is 8.5K + 14K(Does not have CP) = 12K. There have been atleast 6K I/C approvals since then.

[suninphx]

Friends just did a simple query on Trackitt for EB2 ROW + Primary + Approved
Oct 2010 - Feb 2011 - 184
Oct 2011 - Feb 2012 - 170
This means ROW has almost caught up considering we still have days in Feb, ROW was lagging back big time initially the exact same thing had happened last year.
Now if CO's statement of flat utilization of 9% per month is indeed true then in 5 months we have already seen 18K SOFAD at this rate we should see SOFAD in excess of 35K. For this to be true it appears that there is actually a larger sample of people on Trackitt now than in the past. If the pace of approvals is that high then reaching 01-JAN-2009 by Sep 2012 is a possibility. 18K in 5 months can easily be extrapolated to 36K in 12 months. I don’t believe that demand destruction could really be worse than a corresponding OR of 0.75 which would make it 1650 a month EB2 I/C this is my personal belief however I respect everyone’s opinion.
As of now even Dec cases are being approved quite consistently so surely even in the worst case scenario everyone till 15th Mar 2008 should get approved. I think that the approval volumes will be high in Q3 as well but will subside in Q4 where the allocation is less. Next VB will be very interesting to see the direction. Most important thing is how sound is the basis for the current approvals assuming its in the 9% per month boundary.
Here is how I came up with the 18K figure. Pre Oct Average of Inventory and Demand data is 8.5K + 14K(Does not have CP) = 12K. There have been atleast 6K I/C approvals since then.

Teddy,

I am in agreement with the number of 1600-1800/PM. Let's not worry about individual OR assumptions for now. So you have same number for PD2009 too?

[suninphx]

SPHX - based on USCIS data, I calculated EB2IC in oct-nov-dec to be at approx 2K per month of 2007 - pls see my previous post. For that 2K to be less means EB1 and EB2ROW will have to be more ie more than 7K i.e. more than last year's rate per month. Regardless of state of economy EB2IC / EB2ROW ratio should remain constant and as such I think it is highly unlikley that EB2ROW will be more and EB2IC will be less at the same time (compared to the prior yer values).

However I do concede the point that DD could be upto 25%. That's possible. But asI said thats not high enough to cause the date movements which IMHO is completely policy driven (again!).

As per CM's prediction - I generally do not follow his blog. However I do read it sometimes whenver somebody puts a line or two recommending that we read something there. I have good regard for him/her. However on EB2IC reaching 2008Q4 during USCIS Fiscal 2012 I have to strongly disagree. I am 100% confident that's not going to happen.

Sorry ... don't mean to ruin somebody's hopes. But neither I want to give false hopes to people.

Ok- I am not sure if I have completely understood your post but I guess bottom line is that you are expecting the dates to be around 2008Q1 by end of FY2012.

[iamdeb]

My PD is June 2011 and I have received Fee Notice from NVC. Just this morning I had replied to someone with Oct 2010 saying I do not expect it anytime soon ;)

Wow!! That's wonderful news indeed. So does it mean that the PD will reach June 2011 in the near future?

[Jonty Rhodes]

Sorry to post something off topic but I really found this one interesting. Please remove it later or move it to appropriate thread.

The article basically mentions that a correlation exists between increasing H1B denials at US Consular Posts in India and direct pressure of Senator Grassley on Department of State for doing it.

http://imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2012-02-15/221g-h1b-refusals-in-india.html

[kkruna]

Gurus will reply you better. What I can contribute is many ppl from my co go to Canada (Calgary better) for extension. I went for conversion from L1B to H1B.

[qesehmk]

sport
My premise is based on following facts:
1. There were 40K EB1 EB2 left at the end of 2011 Sep.
2. In Q1 2012 of USCIS year only 36K were approved. So theoretically all intake that came in Q1 2012 is on top of earlier inventory not including EB3.
3. The incoming rate is ~2K for EB2IC.
4. Rate of everything else is same as last year.
5. So this year we will see same SOFAD + any reduction in EB2IC (i.e. 500 per month)
6. The reduction is approx 6K .... so ~3 months of supply.
7. So the max movement in 2012 year should be = same as last year's movement + 3 months.
8 Last year the sustainable movement was 11 months. This year it could be max 14 months i.e. August 2008.
9. Now consider this that EB1 backlog in 2011 grew from 7.5K to 15K!! For a category that is current this is not a sustainable situation to have that high backlog. So we should see more approvals there negating the 3 month advantage in EB2IC reduction in demand.
10. That takes us back to March 2008.

Also this doesn't take into account any improvement in EB1 or EB2ROW if economy improves.


Q, I have 3 points:

a) It is only February and we are already seeing the earlier half of December filers getting out of the way. I think December 2011 filers will mostly be dealt with shortly and they might even start with January filers, which will easily take them beyond Q1/2008.

b) It is true that they may "end" at Q1/2008 if retrogression is severe, but there is a fundamental difference. A lot of people beyond that retrogressed date would be approved (very likely scenario) resulting in demand density substantially lower than what is assumed in calculations thus speeding the forward moment when the worst of retrogression is over. I believe from trackitt, we have seen Jan 2008 getting a GC so far. Many December 2007 filers are getting greened consistently.

c) I am still not seeing any signs of retrogression/stall. By all accounts, VB will again move forward in April (although I reserve judgment until it happens), which will be the 7th consecutive month of forward movement! It is very very unlikely that a forward movement will continue if the danger of severe retrogression looms and Q1/2008 is very severe considering how far the envelope has been pushed already.

In effect, my theory is that of a smooth transition. There is demand, but it is slow in showing up mainly due to RFEs, and inability of people to file right away (stuck in H1B limbo, unfriendly employers surprised at the sudden movement, many people not being married etc). This demand will "eventually" show up, but by that time, the bulk of 2008 and 2009 people with 'clean cases" would already be cleared. So the rate of forward progression will stall/stop, however retrogression won't be bad (in how much the envelop is pushed back or the length it stays there). When the dust settles, 2011 filers will start getting greened only in 2014 and EB2-IC will not be current any time soon - however the wait time will go down to 3 years instead of 5 assuming everything else stays the same.

[suninphx]

sport
My premise is based on following facts:
1. There were 40K EB1 EB2 left at the end of 2011 Sep.
2. In Q1 2012 of USCIS year only 36K were approved. So theoretically all intake that came in Q1 2012 is on top of earlier inventory not including EB3.
3. The incoming rate is ~2K for EB2IC.
4. Rate of everything else is same as last year.
5. So this year we will see same SOFAD + any reduction in EB2IC (i.e. 500 per month)
6. The reduction is approx 6K .... so ~3 months of supply.
7. So the max movement in 2012 year should be = same as last year's movement + 3 months.
8 Last year the sustainable movement was 11 months. This year it could be max 14 months i.e. August 2008.
9. Now consider this that EB1 backlog in 2011 grew from 7.5K to 15K!! For a category that is current this is not a sustainable situation to have that high backlog. So we should see more approvals there negating the 3 month advantage in EB2IC reduction in demand.
10. That takes us back to March 2008.

Also this doesn't take into account any improvement in EB1 or EB2ROW if economy improves.

IMO, above scenario might play out if dates retrogress prior to Mar 2008 (as soon as by next bulletin). If they don't then there is chance that we will see some approvals from Jan VB filers. And that changes whole game. In that case technically dates can still be at Mar 2008 by end of FY 2012 by not in true sense.

Now whether dates will retrogress and to what point is big question. If CO is going by the numbers what we saw in latest inventory( which is obviously much lower than true demand) then chances of retrogression are much less.

[iamdeb]

Wow!! That's wonderful news indeed. So does it mean that the PD will reach June 2011 in the near future?

I hope the Gurus or the experts out here will shed some more light on this NVC thing. I am planning to goto India, but I can wait if my PD May 2011 is going to be current in the near future.That's why I want to know how significant is the news that June 2011 PD person is receiving NVC notice.

[kd2008]

sport
My premise is based on following facts:
1. There were 40K EB1 EB2 left at the end of 2011 Sep.
2. In Q1 2012 of USCIS year only 36K were approved. So theoretically all intake that came in Q1 2012 is on top of earlier inventory not including EB3.
3. The incoming rate is ~2K for EB2IC.
4. Rate of everything else is same as last year.
5. So this year we will see same SOFAD + any reduction in EB2IC (i.e. 500 per month)
6. The reduction is approx 6K .... so ~3 months of supply.
7. So the max movement in 2012 year should be = same as last year's movement + 3 months.
8 Last year the sustainable movement was 11 months. This year it could be max 14 months i.e. August 2008.
9. Now consider this that EB1 backlog in 2011 grew from 7.5K to 15K!! For a category that is current this is not a sustainable situation to have that high backlog. So we should see more approvals there negating the 3 month advantage in EB2IC reduction in demand.
10. That takes us back to March 2008.

Also this doesn't take into account any improvement in EB1 or EB2ROW if economy improves.

Q I completely agree with your analysis and I would agree more if the dates had already retrogressed. Things would play out as you say. But we haven't yet seen retrogression and we are seeing quarterly spillover. That changes the whole game.

[qesehmk]

Q I completely agree with your analysis and I would agree more if the dates had already retrogressed. Things would play out as you say. But we haven't yet seen retrogression and we are seeing quarterly spillover. That changes the whole game.
KD - technically the dates shouldn't have progressed at all. So the movement itself is artificial. So retrogression also wouldn't be quite meaningful to predict anything. I think if I were to be wrong then somebody needs to look at Jan 485 inventory data and compare that with Oct 2011 485 data and then use the 485 approval data USCIS published. That combined information may yield something that might go against all of my theory :) As of now I haven't done that and only used 485 Oct 2011 inventory, and latest USCIS approval data. So yes i could very well be wrong. And will be glad if I am wrong.

p.s. - And hey disagreements are a good thing. That's how we learn new things. So please disagree and point out flaws ;)

[vizcard]

I hope the Gurus or the experts out here will shed some more light on this NVC thing. I am planning to goto India, but I can wait if my PD May 2011 is going to be current in the near future.That's why I want to know how significant is the news that June 2011 PD person is receiving NVC notice.

It means June 2011 will be current in the next 12 months. My guess..and purely a guess...is that the movement will happen in Q1 FY 2013. Till then I expect the dates will stall or retrogress.

[kd2008]

KD - technically the dates shouldn't have progressed at all. So the movement itself is artificial. So retrogression also wouldn't be quite meaningful to predict anything. I think if I were to be wrong then somebody needs to look at Jan 485 inventory data and compare that with Oct 2011 485 data and then use the 485 approval data USCIS published. That combined information may yield something that might go against all of my theory :) As of now I haven't done that and only used 485 Oct 2011 inventory, and latest USCIS approval data. So yes i could very well be wrong. And will be glad if I am wrong.

p.s. - And hey disagreements are a good thing. That's how we learn new things. So please disagree and point out flaws ;)

Q, few pages back I had posted my analysis. I am reposting below:

So far my contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.
Based on the above assumption:

This is my analysis for Q1 FY 2012

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 26.3K
Q1 FY 2012 Receipts = 35.5K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
Lets us say EB2IC receipts =X
Therefore the receipts from rest of the categories = 35.5 -X
From I-485 Inventory of Jan 2012, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 29.9K
Visas used up by EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 18.5K (based on the category break-down assumption above)

26.3K + (35.5K -X) - 29.9K = 18.5K
Solve for X, X = 13.4K

These are probably the receipts for EB2IC in Q1 FY 2012.

This would imply, EB2ROW I-485 is higher, IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

[mesan123]

Seeing so much analysis....after long :) very nice....based on this new data, i see that most of you guys think there wont be any moment or it may retrogress...but in that case why are they sending NVC reciepts.....my assumption is ,if CO thinks there is chance of those dates getting current they would send the reciepts.... i am assuming they wont be sending reciepts if they think the dates would be current for one or two years....am i wrong here?

one more thing...they are not sending reciepts to just 2010 folks even mid 2011 people(june) or getting reciepts...

[suninphx]

Spec, I have a question .

In my understanding, if anyone changes the status from H4 to H1, asper the Last-Action Rule , he immediately falls under H1 even if he hasn't joined the employer and falls out of status between the period H1 start date to actual join date .

Is Last-Action Rule not applicable to L1 to H1?

That is applicable only if he has asked COS - which is not the case here. So he must have got approval notice without new I94 attached.

[Kanmani]

Sun, thanks. Can you please explain more in this context, H4->H1 Vs L1->H1?

[suninphx]

Sun, thanks. Can you please explain more in this context, H4->H1 Vs L1->H1?

AFAIK, we can ask apply with or without COS in both H4->H1 and L1->H1 cases. I am pretty sure about this but let's see what others have to say. So last action rule will be applicable only when approval comes with new I94 (indicating changed status)attached.

[qesehmk]

KD .... I think your entire logic is very good. I think conclusion is also right. So either EB2IC is low and SOFAD is low. Or EB2IC is normal and SOFAD is normal. In either case we will be looking at simliar to prior year movement forward which is about 11 months. Right? (Of course not including any downside because of improving economy or reduction of EB1 inventory resulting in even lower SOFAD). Makes sense?


Q, few pages back I had posted my analysis. I am reposting below:

So far my contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.
Based on the above assumption:

This is my analysis for Q1 FY 2012

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 26.3K
Q1 FY 2012 Receipts = 35.5K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
Lets us say EB2IC receipts =X
Therefore the receipts from rest of the categories = 35.5 -X
From I-485 Inventory of Jan 2012, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 29.9K
Visas used up by EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 18.5K (based on the category break-down assumption above)

26.3K + (35.5K -X) - 29.9K = 18.5K
Solve for X, X = 13.4K

These are probably the receipts for EB2IC in Q1 FY 2012.

This would imply, EB2ROW I-485 is higher, IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

[kd2008]

KD .... I think your entire logic is very good. I think conclusion is also right. So either EB2IC is low and SOFAD is low. Or EB2IC is normal and SOFAD is normal. In either case we will be looking at simliar to prior year movement forward which is about 11 months. Right? (Of course not including any downside because of improving economy or reduction of EB1 inventory resulting in even lower SOFAD). Makes sense?

Yes, I am agreeing with a reservation :)

I really can't seem to understand what the net effect will be of the massive date movement, quarterly/monthly spillover, NVC notices sent up to PDs of June 2011, slow progress in processing EB1 cases, slow down in PERM approvals.

[qesehmk]

We like to think government as a single focused entity with a single policy and objective. But in reality it is a combination of multiple departments and people and pressure groups trying to achieve different objectives. So the forward mvement could be opportunistic behavior from people who do want to push forward EB immigration. I think we can only go by hard facts and say regardless of where dates move, the fundamental demand supply will dictate where the dates will eventually settle atthe end of 2012.


Yes, I am agreeing with a reservation :)

I really can't seem to understand what the net effect will be of the massive date movement, quarterly/monthly spillover, NVC notices sent up to PDs of June 2011, slow progress in processing EB1 cases, slow down in PERM approvals.

[nishant2200]

We like to think government as a single focused entity with a single policy and objective. But in reality it is a combination of multiple departments and people and pressure groups trying to achieve different objectives. So the forward mvement could be opportunistic behavior from people who do want to push forward EB immigration. I think we can only go by hard facts and say regardless of where dates move, the fundamental demand supply will dictate where the dates will eventually settle atthe end of 2012.

Q and kd, one observation I had. Utilizing visas to the fullest extent, and following the SO priority of EB5->EB1->EB2->EB3 and fall across within from ROW to IC, etc. seems to be a much more hardline goals of CO than I imagined earlier. He really does not want to take any chances. He would rather go visas go to EB2IC for applicants belonging to much later date via CP, rather than just simply opening flood gates on the ton of pre-adjudicated EB3IC inventory and EB3ROW, and I have a feeling that if ever that situation does come that EB3 gets the SO because EB2 could not be processed fast enough by USCIS, or not enough applications were available, or CP could not help in consuming completely, he will indeed make EB2 current, and only then will flow over visas to EB3.

[vizcard]

Q and kd, one observation I had. Utilizing visas to the fullest extent, and following the SO priority of EB5->EB1->EB2->EB3 and fall across within from ROW to IC, etc. seems to be a much more hardline goals of CO than I imagined earlier. He really does not want to take any chances. He would rather go visas go to EB2IC for applicants belonging to much later date via CP, rather than just simply opening flood gates on the ton of pre-adjudicated EB3IC inventory and EB3ROW, and I have a feeling that if ever that situation does come that EB3 gets the SO because EB2 could not be processed fast enough by USCIS, or not enough applications were available, or CP could not help in consuming completely, he will indeed make EB2 current, and only then will flow over visas to EB3.

Isn't your last sentence the current policy?

[Teja9999]

Got EAD/AP Approved, thanks for all your support

Service Center : Texas
PD : 12/19/2007
USCIS RD : 01/23/2012
USCIS ND : 01/25/2012
FP : 03/05/2012
EAD/AP Approval date : 02/25/2012

[qesehmk]

Nishant - I agree. For EB3 to receive any SOFAD whatsoever, EB2 will have to be current first.

[Jonty Rhodes]

This was just posted on CM's blog. He has now revised his prediction and is mentioning that retrogression may be severe based on I-485 receipt data which was released just few days ago. I don't know whether he uses the same method of calculation as Spec, Q, Veni, Teddy, Kd, Nishant, Sunniphx and other Gurus are using here but what I understood from his prediction was that basically his prediction is pretty much in line with what Q and Spec are saying.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/02/adjusted-eb2-india-china-fy-2012.html

Comments please........:(

[nishant2200]

Isn't your last sentence the current policy?

vizcard, there is no such thing as current policy or any rule, IMHO. We can interpret all we want and agencies can leave us baffled. My attempt is to try to understand the mindset of CO, because I am personally, not satisfied with any model or logic thought by us or anyone that could have predicted such movement.

[nishant2200]

Wov, the guy CM surely took an inspiration from some of the posts here by Teddy, Q and Spec, or maybe great minds think alike!



This was just posted on CM's blog. He has now revised his prediction and is mentioning that retrogression may be severe based on I-485 receipt data which was released just few days ago. I don't know whether he uses the same method of calculation as Spec, Q, Veni, Teddy, Kd, Nishant, Sunniphx and other Gurus are using here but what I understood from his prediction was that basically his prediction is pretty much in line with what Q and Spec are saying.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/02/adjusted-eb2-india-china-fy-2012.html

Comments please........:(

[suninphx]

This was just posted on CM's blog. He has now revised his prediction and is mentioning that retrogression may be severe based on I-485 receipt data which was released just few days ago. I don't know whether he uses the same method of calculation as Spec, Q, Veni, Teddy, Kd, Nishant, Sunniphx and other Gurus are using here but what I understood from his prediction was that basically his prediction is pretty much in line with what Q and Spec are saying.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/02/adjusted-eb2-india-china-fy-2012.html

Comments please........:(

He seem to have considered the Jan inventory to its face value( well almost near the face value). That's VERY interesting.. Also blog seem to be projecting SOFAD upto 35K. Thats also interesting , specially when considered individual category usages.

My own estimate that dates will be around Sep/Oct 2008 are based on following assumptions:
1) OR of around 0.7
2) slow processing from USCIS will help to approvals of more EB2IC cases. But SOFAD of 35K is far stretched IMO. If we manage to get SOFAD OF 27K-30K then we should consider our selves very lucky IMO.
3) Another assumption is (a big one may be ) that USCIS will carry forward sizable chunk of EB2IC cases into next FY(last year they carried cases worth 3-4 months).

So that's my case.

As per whether dates will keep on moving that's entirely based on what data is being presented to CO. That's kind of uncharted territory to me.

[Desperate8]

Just relieving my pressure here......

Being on EAD is good but at-last I am a human as-well , wants my dates (Oct 2008) to be processed with the ongoing trend duh I have lost hopes for anytime soon.With all postings (not an offense), my frustrations are at peak :), just back from gym did cardio 3 times more than I usually do.sounds funny to me when I think of it but that is all it is ....wanted to share with my best friends here at the forum :)

I have had a lot from this whole process, had to be away from my family for a year - had been through lots of mental pressure--- I am obsessed by GC - I want it :))

[goforgreen]

sport
My premise is based on following facts:
1. There were 40K EB1 EB2 left at the end of 2011 Sep.
2. In Q1 2012 of USCIS year only 36K were approved. So theoretically all intake that came in Q1 2012 is on top of earlier inventory not including EB3.
3. The incoming rate is ~2K for EB2IC.
4. Rate of everything else is same as last year.
5. So this year we will see same SOFAD + any reduction in EB2IC (i.e. 500 per month)
6. The reduction is approx 6K .... so ~3 months of supply.
7. So the max movement in 2012 year should be = same as last year's movement + 3 months.
8 Last year the sustainable movement was 11 months. This year it could be max 14 months i.e. August 2008.
9. Now consider this that EB1 backlog in 2011 grew from 7.5K to 15K!! For a category that is current this is not a sustainable situation to have that high backlog. So we should see more approvals there negating the 3 month advantage in EB2IC reduction in demand.
10. That takes us back to March 2008.

Also this doesn't take into account any improvement in EB1 or EB2ROW if economy improves.

Thanks Q for bringing much needed sanity to the predictions, we had really gone overboard and were thinking all of 2008 PDs will be cleared. It will be great if it happens but I find it difficult to understand why demand would suddenly drop from a monthly 2200 to much less than than.

[bloddy1]

Throwing into into the conversation mix; http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/02/adjusted-eb2-india-china-fy-2012.html

A lot of folks are arguing numbers but not their validity, which I suspect is very inaccurate, especially the Jan filing numbers. The only reliable statistic at this point is Nov/Dec numbers and based on that I could definitely see things retrogressing in April VB.

[suninphx]

Throwing into into the conversation mix; http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/02/adjusted-eb2-india-china-fy-2012.html

A lot of folks are arguing numbers but not their validity, which I suspect is very inaccurate, especially the Jan filing numbers. The only reliable statistic at this point is Nov/Dec numbers and based on that I could definitely see things retrogressing in April VB.

Numbers are inaccurate on which site? As far as I can tell you- majority of people on this site understand that Jan numbers can not be taken to face value as well as the current movement is not because of low demand. If at all, current movement is because of artificially low numbers being presented to CO.

[qesehmk]

Desperate - Your frustration is understandable. But for your own sake don't be obsessed with GC. It's not worth more than whatever you like to do day in day out. Obsession with GC will hurt very things you like.
Just relieving my pressure here......

Being on EAD is good but at-last I am a human as-well , wants my dates (Oct 2008) to be processed with the ongoing trend duh I have lost hopes for anytime soon.With all postings (not an offense), my frustrations are at peak :), just back from gym did cardio 3 times more than I usually do.sounds funny to me when I think of it but that is all it is ....wanted to share with my best friends here at the forum :)

I have had a lot from this whole process, had to be away from my family for a year - had been through lots of mental pressure--- I am obsessed by GC - I want it :))


..we had really gone overboard and were thinking all of 2008 PDs will be cleared. It will be great if it happens but I find it difficult to understand why demand would suddenly drop from a monthly 2200 to much less than than.
GFG - Yes. There is a bit of euphoria due to unexpected date movement. And those of us who understand the difference between date movement and GC backlog clearance, should point it out for benefit of those who dont. I think the numbers could go down because of economy. However I do not believe demand destruction - as in people abandoning GC process in hoards. There is just too much that people have staked to walk upto this point to just go back.

Q, I totally agree with you that ideally if all demand was generated at this point, March 2008 is a very good guess .....Hence I think that the dates ...may just sustain near the end of 2008/mid 2009 ....
...
they might intentionally start sending out RFEs or delay processing, which means that the dates would artificially hold.
sportsfan the first one is a good point you make. i thought about it too. I do not know what exact number we could put there. But thoughts welcome! However even if somebody misses now - they will file within 2-3 months. So there won't be a sustained effect - so much so to move the EB2IC dates permanently near end of 2008 during this year itself.

On USCIS deliberately sending out RFE to delay processing .... I think they don't need to increase their workload just to delay things. They can simply delay things and take their sweet time if they want to.

..I could definitely see things retrogressing in April VB.
My position is I don't know precisely. If the original movement is in response of true lack of demand then you can predict somewhat. But when the date movement is not based on demand and supply - how does one predict? All one can say is - this party will come to an end sometime really soon!!

[tatikonda]

Hey My Ex-Employer is not giving my W2. What are my options ?
I worked with him until Sep 2012 and then changed employer with his permission but he is not giving W2.

Please advice.
Sorry, As I posted in wrong forum.

[harapatta]

check the link...hope it helps

http://www.h1blegalrights.com/2009/03/employer-not-providing-your-w-2-heres-what-to-do/

[usernameisnotvalid]

If your employer was running your salary through adp, you will get this by 31st Jan, 2013 , of course.

But, here is what I would do (infact I did): Shoot him a mail (for your record) that you need W2 form to file taxes and mention that you will go to IRS if he does not give it to you.

There was a link I saw somewhere - google it. It essentially mentions that you can call IRS or DOL for this and they will follow up with the employer. Do not worry about this -just drop him/her a mail.

Thanks



Hey My Ex-Employer is not giving my W2. What are my options ?
I worked with him until Sep 2012 and then changed employer with his permission but he is not giving W2.

Please advice.
Sorry, As I posted in wrong forum.

[tatikonda]

check the link...hope it helps

http://www.h1blegalrights.com/2009/03/employer-not-providing-your-w-2-heres-what-to-do/

Hi Harapatta,

Thanks for quick reply. I want to resolve this issue amicably. Can I contact Pay-roll company ( Paycheck ) and ask them to send W2.

How does W2 gets generated, I guess Pay-roll company sends to employer and employer sends to employee.
Please advise.

Thank you

[eb2igc]

I am following this thread for long time, but posting for the first time. I want to thank all member of this forum for providing analysis and information related to 485 process. Specially Qesehmek, Spectator, Veni, Teddy, Leo, Nishanth for spending time and crunching number and offcourse Sogaddu for cheering the group.
I filed 485 in November and received GC last week & my Journey to GC ends here. So, want to take a moment to thank members of this forum and Hope everyone gets GC soon. Good Luck to all.

[usernameisnotvalid]

Adp sends W2 forms in snail mail directly to your home address. If you loose W2 form or don't receive one than you contact your HR - at least this is what we do in our company.


Hi Harapatta,

Thanks for quick reply. I want to resolve this issue amicably. Can I contact Pay-roll company ( Paycheck ) and ask them to send W2.

How does W2 gets generated, I guess Pay-roll company sends to employer and employer sends to employee.
Please advise.

Thank you

[mysati]

I am following this thread for long time, but posting for the first time. I want to thank all member of this forum for providing analysis and information related to 485 process. Specially Qesehmek, Spectator, Veni, Teddy, Leo, Nishanth for spending time and crunching number and offcourse Sogaddu for cheering the group.
I filed 485 in November and received GC last week & my Journey to GC ends here. So, want to take a moment to thank members of this forum and Hope everyone gets GC soon. Good Luck to all.

Congrats and good luck to you too!

[usernameisnotvalid]

Q, what part of "GC is greener!" don't you understand :-)


Desperate - Your frustration is understandable. But for your own sake don't be obsessed with GC. It's not worth more than whatever you like to do day in day out. Obsession with GC will hurt very things you like.


GFG - Yes. There is a bit of euphoria due to unexpected date movement. And those of us who understand the difference between date movement and GC backlog clearance, should point it out for benefit of those who dont. I think the numbers could go down because of economy. However I do not believe demand destruction - as in people abandoning GC process in hoards. There is just too much that people have staked to walk upto this point to just go back.

sportsfan the first one is a good point you make. i thought about it too. I do not know what exact number we could put there. But thoughts welcome! However even if somebody misses now - they will file within 2-3 months. So there won't be a sustained effect - so much so to move the EB2IC dates permanently near end of 2008 during this year itself.

On USCIS deliberately sending out RFE to delay processing .... I think they don't need to increase their workload just to delay things. They can simply delay things and take their sweet time if they want to.

My position is I don't know precisely. If the original movement is in response of true lack of demand then you can predict somewhat. But when the date movement is not based on demand and supply - how does one predict? All one can say is - this party will come to an end sometime really soon!!

[manzoorraza]

Tatikonda,
Send the employer an email as Usernamenot valid suggested requesting your W2 and citing the reason as filing for taxes; make sure you copy the highest ranking official you can get access to. Most of the times a written communication softens the stand or at the very least gets you documented evidence that either there was no response or (better) they denied you the same (which offcourse has legal implications for the company). If I were you I would try and keep it amicable the first time around and if you dont hear back for a few days send a reminder and mention redressal options.
On the side, you can call Paycheck customer service and request them to send you the information by mail or set up an online account (if they have that option) to access your information directly and print the same. With my previous employer we were able to access our information through an online account. If you receive an online stub you may be able to get a link from there to signup for access.
Thanks

[qesehmk]

:) Sure it feels that way!! But it aint that way !!
Q, what part of "GC is greener!" don't you understand :-)

[desiman]

in case if it helps in any calculation


SRC1290000xxx - received - September 29, 2011

SRC1290050xxx - card delivered - February 17, 2012

SRC1290070xxx - received - December 9, 2011

SRC1290100xxx - received - January 5, 2012

SRC1290160xxx - no status - mid feb

[polapragada]

I have filed my I485 (AOS) case on Dec 1st, 2011 the case is still pending with USCIS. Along with AOS, we have filed for EAD and Advance Parole, which got approved and I have physical EAD/AP on my hand. And I have valid H1B petition (No H1B Stamp, current stamp expired on).

I have situation back at, I need to travel to India immediately this week end I am not willing to go for stamping of H1B. I would like to start using my EAD/AP.


Now, I have following questions:

1. Can I travel to INDIA and come back in 2 weeks without any port of entry issues by using my EAD/AP card?
3. If yes, what all the documentation that need to carry with me, which are required at POE on my return?
3. What if my I-485 gets approved while I am in India? On what status I should try to enter into USA on my return?
4. In the #3 case, do I need to visit US embassy in INDIA to get the immigration stamping?
5. If yes, what is the procedure?
6. Are there any other complexities involved this scenario, which I can’t think of?


Kindly make some time to reply in detail ASAP

[nishant2200]

Hey My Ex-Employer is not giving my W2. What are my options ?
I worked with him until Sep 2012 and then changed employer with his permission but he is not giving W2.

Please advice.
Sorry, As I posted in wrong forum.

IRS form 4506

http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc159.html

[vizcard]

I have filed my I485 (AOS) case on Dec 1st, 2011 the case is still pending with USCIS. Along with AOS, we have filed for EAD and Advance Parole, which got approved and I have physical EAD/AP on my hand. And I have valid H1B petition (No H1B Stamp, current stamp expired on).

I have situation back at, I need to travel to India immediately this week end I am not willing to go for stamping of H1B. I would like to start using my EAD/AP.


Now, I have following questions:

1. Can I travel to INDIA and come back in 2 weeks without any port of entry issues by using my EAD/AP card?
3. If yes, what all the documentation that need to carry with me, which are required at POE on my return?
3. What if my I-485 gets approved while I am in India? On what status I should try to enter into USA on my return?
4. In the #3 case, do I need to visit US embassy in INDIA to get the immigration stamping?
5. If yes, what is the procedure?
6. Are there any other complexities involved this scenario, which I can’t think of?


Kindly make some time to reply in detail ASAP

1. yes
2. EAD/AP card + passport. You might want to carry your 797.
3. My lawyers said theres no issue there and u can enter with AP card
4, 5 - see #3
6. Only complexity I've heard is that they pull you aside for secondary checks at POE.

[nishant2200]

Replies added in below to your question


I have filed my I485 (AOS) case on Dec 1st, 2011 the case is still pending with USCIS. Along with AOS, we have filed for EAD and Advance Parole, which got approved and I have physical EAD/AP on my hand. And I have valid H1B petition (No H1B Stamp, current stamp expired on).

I have situation back at, I need to travel to India immediately this week end I am not willing to go for stamping of H1B. I would like to start using my EAD/AP.


Now, I have following questions:

1. Can I travel to INDIA and come back in 2 weeks without any port of entry issues by using my EAD/AP card?
Yes, with caveats: Your AOS should not be denied meanwhile. Else you would need a valid H1 stamp to enter on H1 status. People have also raised doubts for AOS being in RFE status and ability to re-enter on AP, but I personally feel it would work out.
3. If yes, what all the documentation that need to carry with me, which are required at POE on my return?
Passport, EAD/AP combo card, Filing receipts of 485. All other filing receipts, H1 approval notice etc, should be kept in the carry on purse or laptop bag etc, not checked in baggage, so that you can produce at short notice to officer if needed.
3. What if my I-485 gets approved while I am in India? On what status I should try to enter into USA on my return?
This one I am not sure, folks have mentioned that if you know you are approved, in addition to above documents, you can inform officer you are approved, or you can show him a print out of the case status page which shows approval for your receipt number. Some have suggested going to US consulate to get some stamp, I am not sure that is really needed or not. I personally don't think it is.
4. In the #3 case, do I need to visit US embassy in INDIA to get the immigration stamping?
Not sure, see above.
5. If yes, what is the procedure?
N/A
6. Are there any other complexities involved this scenario, which I can’t think of?
Keep things simple, please don't go if you can avoid going!


Kindly make some time to reply in detail ASAP

[polapragada]

1. yes
2. EAD/AP card + passport. You might want to carry your 797.
3. My lawyers said theres no issue there and u can enter with AP card
4, 5 - see #3
6. Only complexity I've heard is that they pull you aside for secondary checks at POE.

Thanks for quick response....I can live with secondary check at POE

[manzoorraza]

Nishant,
I think the W2 that you can get from the IRS website through form 4506 is for past years (where taxes have already been filed). If I undertand correctly Tatikonda needs the W2 to file the taxes in the first place for year 2011. If that is correct then his only options are either the employer or the payroll processor.
Thanks


IRS form 4506

http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc159.html

[waiting]

Thanks for this. Quick question - "follow-to-join" only applies when I-485 is approved correct? Assuming dates are current & I-485 is "pending", depandent's 485 can be filled ?

[nishant2200]

Nishant,
I think the W2 that you can get from the IRS website through form 4506 is for past years (where taxes have already been filed). If I undertand correctly Tatikonda needs the W2 to file the taxes in the first place for year 2011. If that is correct then his only options are either the employer or the payroll processor.
Thanks

I see, yes the IRS is for past years, for taxes you already filed.

[nishant2200]

Thanks for this. Quick question - "follow-to-join" only applies when I-485 is approved correct? Assuming dates are current & I-485 is "pending", depandent's 485 can be filled ?

If 485 is not approved, then anyways eligible dependent can apply anytime if dates allow to do so. I think the main thing is you should be married before the 485 is approved.

Kanmani and Spec had good knowledge on this follow to join etc, lets see what they say.

[Kanmani]

Thanks for this. Quick question - "follow-to-join" only applies when I-485 is approved correct? Assuming dates are current & I-485 is "pending", depandent's 485 can be filled ?

Yes , dependent can file separately as long as primary's PD is current on the day on which USCIS receives the derivative's I-485. In this case the primary should be maintaining a valid non-immigrant status to allow the spouse to maintain dependent status between the two separate I-485 filings ( primary + dependent).

If the spouse has his/her own non-immigrant status , the primary need not worry abt his H1/L1 after I-485.

[kd2008]

Q, few pages back I had posted my analysis. I am reposting below:

So far my contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.
Based on the above assumption:

This is my analysis for Q1 FY 2012

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 26.3K
Q1 FY 2012 Receipts = 35.5K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
Lets us say EB2IC receipts =X
Therefore the receipts from rest of the categories = 35.5 -X
From I-485 Inventory of Jan 2012, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 29.9K
Visas used up by EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 18.5K (based on the category break-down assumption above)

26.3K + (35.5K -X) - 29.9K = 18.5K
Solve for X, X = 13.4K

These are probably the receipts for EB2IC in Q1 FY 2012.

This would imply, EB2ROW I-485 is higher, IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

Another calc approach:
Approvals in Q1 FY 2012 EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 13K estimated
Jan 2012 inventory:
EB1 = 15.5K
EB2(nonIC) = 13.5K

Jan to Sep addition: EB1: 2K/month x 9 months = 18K
Jan to Sep addition: EB2(nonIC): 2K/month x 9 months = 18K
(For EB2(nonIC): With the PERM approval slow down this may decrease, with an approval ramp up this may increase)

It is typical for USCIS to carry about 7K or 8K cases in the inventory for EB1 at all times. Same for EB2(nonIC). Let us say that in Oct 2012, USCIS has EB1 inventory of 7K and EB2(nonIC) inventory of 7K. This implies USCIS did a fantastic job of approving EB1 and EB2(nonIC) cases.

So how many did USCIS approve in FY 2012 for EB1+EB2(nonIC)?

13K + 29K + 36K - 14K = 64K

EB1 + EB2 + Spillover from EB4&EB5 = 84K

Therefore, EB2IC SOFAD = 20K

This may be the lowest amount.

If USCIS ends up carrying about the same 29K cases for EB1+EB2(nonIC) in its inventory by Oct 2012 as it is now, then

EB2IC SOFAD increases to 35K.

So it is a wide range and it utterly depends on USCIS processing speed and what it processes first.

I hope folks appreciate, why USCIS may feel the pressure in coming months to process enough cases.

If the EB2(nonIC) filings decrease due to a PERM slow down, then the SOFAD increases even more. This is unlikely, in my opinion.

Q, Spec, Teddy, what is your take?

[Kanmani]

kd ,
when the entire Eb3 category is retrogressed, approvals are made from pre-adjudicated cases, then why EB3 Q1 total is 6.5k instead of 10K? ( Sorry I am really confused , this is a layman question)

[kd2008]

kd ,
when the entire Eb3 category is retrogressed, approvals are made from pre-adjudicated cases, then why EB3 Q1 total is 6.5k instead of 10K? ( Sorry I am really confused , this is a layman question)

I am only considering USCIS processing for my analysis.

Indeed, EB3 approvals for Q1 FY 2012 are taken to be 10K. Of this, I estimated about 3.5K are CP. 6.5K are AOS approvals from pre-adjudicated cases.

the 31k approvals in the document posted by Spec for Q1FY 2012 are from USCIS only.

[yzzozzy]

Hi there folks, first timer here! I've originally posted this on trackitt (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/915365577/cp-vs-aos), but got no responses. I wonder why! can anyone shed some light?

My PD is 22-JUN-2011, EB2IC. My I-140 got approved on 08-FEB-2012. I've noticed on the approval notice that my case was transferred to NVC. Our attorney did not specify CP during I-140 but somehow USCIS transferred my case to NVC. I've noticed that someone else on the forum also are in the same situation. I've read thru the advantages of doing CP vs AOS. I've no issues going to India if that's the faster route to get GC. I'm willing to take the risk. I have the following questions and would greatly appreciate it if someone can answer them -

1. Am I correct in saying that USCIS and NVC will pick the visa numbers from the same pool? If EB2IC has 2800 visa numbers available in a fiscal year, what percentage of it is allocated to NVC vs USCIS? Who gets the upper hand?
2. Some of the folks have received NVC fee notices with PD's in March/June 2011. Assuming I'll get a notice as well and appear for an interview in July 2012 in India, and if there are no denials, but if the dates retrogressed in August 2012, will that affect me at all? If the interview is successful, will I get the GC immediately after returning to US? I understand I'll get a temporary GC stamp on the passport (I-551), which is as good as GC and valid for one year. If my assumptions are true, isn't it easier to do CP than AOS? Why do folks opt for AOS then?
3. I still have my H1B valid for 2 more years. If the GC gets denied for whatever reason during CP, can I come back to US on H1B? And If I do, do I need to start the GC process all over again from PERM?

Thank you for your time!

[qesehmk]

KD, 2K per month as average rate between EB1 and EB2ROW is fine.
However EB1 continues to come in at approx 3K per month. Whereas EB2ROW now-a-days is about 1.5K. So overall 52K for together would be a realistic number for full year between the two.

Year 2011 ended with higher than usual EB1 inventory at 15K. So that is a risk. Assuming 5K will be cleared on top of 2012 EB1 demand, the total between EB1 and EB2ROW will be 57K. So together they should yield SOFAD of about 23K. Then add EB4 and EB5 - which should come in at 6-7K. We are talking about 30K SOFAD in 2012.

Then reduce it by 3K EB3 porting. Thats about 27K. 27K is about 11 months inventory at normal EB2IC density of 2.5K per month. But if we think EB2IC is about 2K or 1.6K then .... do the math and predict where you think 27K will take EB2IC !!!

My take is that the combined number for EB2IC has to be somewhere between 2-2.5K giving a total movement of 11-14 months (its fun when numbers tie up!) 11-14 months on top of last years movement means - Mar-Jun 2008 for EB2IC. That's my comfort zone of course. I know others would prefers Q2 or even Q3 of 2008.


Another calc approach:
Approvals in Q1 FY 2012 EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 13K estimated
Jan 2012 inventory:
EB1 = 15.5K
EB2(nonIC) = 13.5K

Jan to Sep addition: EB1: 2K/month x 9 months = 18K
Jan to Sep addition: EB2(nonIC): 2K/month x 9 months = 18K
(For EB2(nonIC): With the PERM approval slow down this may decrease, with an approval ramp up this may increase)

It is typical for USCIS to carry about 7K or 8K cases in the inventory for EB1 at all times. Same for EB2(nonIC). Let us say that in Oct 2012, USCIS has EB1 inventory of 7K and EB2(nonIC) inventory of 7K. This implies USCIS did a fantastic job of approving EB1 and EB2(nonIC) cases.

So how many did USCIS approve in FY 2012 for EB1+EB2(nonIC)?

13K + 29K + 36K - 14K = 64K

EB1 + EB2 + Spillover from EB4&EB5 = 84K

Therefore, EB2IC SOFAD = 20K

This may be the lowest amount.

If USCIS ends up carrying about the same 29K cases for EB1+EB2(nonIC) in its inventory by Oct 2012 as it is now, then

EB2IC SOFAD increases to 35K.

So it is a wide range and it utterly depends on USCIS processing speed and what it processes first.

I hope folks appreciate, why USCIS may feel the pressure in coming months to process enough cases.

If the EB2(nonIC) filings decrease due to a PERM slow down, then the SOFAD increases even more. This is unlikely, in my opinion.

Q, Spec, Teddy, what is your take?

[kd2008]

KD, 2K per month as average rate between EB1 and EB2ROW is fine.
However EB1 continues to come in at approx 3K per month. Whereas EB2ROW now-a-days is about 1.5K. So overall 52K for together would be a realistic number for full year between the two.

Year 2011 ended with higher than usual EB1 inventory at 15K. So that is a risk. Assuming 5K will be cleared on top of 2012 EB1 demand, the total between EB1 and EB2ROW will be 57K. So together they should yield SOFAD of about 23K. Then add EB4 and EB5 - which should come in at 6-7K. We are talking about 30K SOFAD in 2012.

Then reduce it by 3K EB3 porting. Thats about 27K. 27K is about 11 months inventory at normal EB2IC density of 2.5K per month. But if we think EB2IC is about 2K or 1.6K then .... do the math and predict where you think 27K will take EB2IC !!!

My take is that the combined number for EB2IC has to be somewhere between 2-2.5K giving a total movement of 11-14 months (its fun when numbers tie up!) 11-14 months on top of last years movement means - Mar-Jun 2008 for EB2IC. That's my comfort zone of course. I know others would prefers Q2 or even Q3 of 2008.

Q, thank you for your feedback. Yes, I am also thinking that the dates will end up somewhere around middle of 2008.

[Kanmani]

1. Am I correct in saying that USCIS and NVC will pick the visa numbers from the same pool? If EB2IC has 2800 visa numbers available in a fiscal year, what percentage of it is allocated to NVC vs USCIS? Who gets the upper hand?


Yes, You are correct. Uscis and Consular posts request Visa numbers from the same department of State . The percentage is approximately 85: 15 in the overall 140k. Usually Uscis requests Visa number after adjudication of the application But Consular posts request visa numbers before adjudication. When the interview is not successful , the consular would return the visa number to DoS.


2. Some of the folks have received NVC fee notices with PD's in March/June 2011. Assuming I'll get a notice as well and appear for an interview in July 2012 in India, and if there are no denials, but if the dates retrogressed in August 2012, will that affect me at all? If the interview is successful, will I get the GC immediately after returning to US? I understand I'll get a temporary GC stamp on the passport (I-551), which is as good as GC and valid for one year. If my assumptions are true, isn't it easier to do CP than AOS? Why do folks opt for AOS then?

We are unfamiliar with Consular processing procedures and no real time experiences are posted in the internet. I personally know very little to answer this question.

THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM link http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf

The above document says Visa numbers are allocated strictly by Priority Dates. Each month DoS receives request for Visa numbers from USCIS & Consular posts. After thorough examination of the requests, they allot Visa numbers going by PD seniority only. So there should be comparatively many applicants before you to get a visa number assigned .

For example , if DOS receives a request for visa numbers (a) June 2009 PD consular processing application (b) March 2008 PD from USCIS , then my assumption is uscis picks the visa number immediately but June 2009 pd should wait for its turn . If a bulk of applications mount for Visa number both from USCIS and consulates, DOS would retrogress the dates.

What I personally feel is when a 2008 pd applicant is still waiting to adjust his status , there is zero chance for a 2011 pd applicant to get visa number assigned very soon eventhough he has chosen the relatively easier route.

3. I still have my H1B valid for 2 more years. If the GC gets denied for whatever reason during CP, can I come back to US on H1B? And If I do, do I need to start the GC process all over again from PERM?

This part is still not clear, Attorney Ron says when I-485 is denied in a situation the applicant has passed 6 years , then the H1b is invalid.

[immi2910]

Hi there folks, first timer here! I've originally posted this on trackitt (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/915365577/cp-vs-aos), but got no responses. I wonder why! can anyone shed some light?

My PD is 22-JUN-2011, EB2IC. My I-140 got approved on 08-FEB-2012. I've noticed on the approval notice that my case was transferred to NVC. Our attorney did not specify CP during I-140 but somehow USCIS transferred my case to NVC. I've noticed that someone else on the forum also are in the same situation. I've read thru the advantages of doing CP vs AOS. I've no issues going to India if that's the faster route to get GC. I'm willing to take the risk. I have the following questions and would greatly appreciate it if someone can answer them -

1. Am I correct in saying that USCIS and NVC will pick the visa numbers from the same pool? If EB2IC has 2800 visa numbers available in a fiscal year, what percentage of it is allocated to NVC vs USCIS? Who gets the upper hand?
2. Some of the folks have received NVC fee notices with PD's in March/June 2011. Assuming I'll get a notice as well and appear for an interview in July 2012 in India, and if there are no denials, but if the dates retrogressed in August 2012, will that affect me at all? If the interview is successful, will I get the GC immediately after returning to US? I understand I'll get a temporary GC stamp on the passport (I-551), which is as good as GC and valid for one year. If my assumptions are true, isn't it easier to do CP than AOS? Why do folks opt for AOS then?
3. I still have my H1B valid for 2 more years. If the GC gets denied for whatever reason during CP, can I come back to US on H1B? And If I do, do I need to start the GC process all over again from PERM?

Thank you for your time!

1. No one gets an upper hand. They all request visas as and when they need it. If there is too much demand from CP and AOS then dates will retrogress to a point that only available visas are requested. However, CP processing starts even before your dates are current whereas AOS only starts once your dates are current. CP applications will be processed up to scheduling of visa interview before the dates are current. As soon as dates become current CP applicants will be scheduled for an interview and Visa Numbers will be reserved at this point (so even if dates retrogress you will still go for interview and get GC).

2. Keep in mind it is not a given that everyone (myself included) will get interviews anytime soon. As I mentioned above if you have your interview scheduled then you will get an immigrant visa irrespective of whether the dates retrogressed or not. Once you enter US you will get your GC by mail.

3. Yes you can come back on H1. Yes, you should be able to start GC process all over again.

Finally, I would like to caution you that June 2011 may not be current anytime soon (my PD is June 2011 as well). Historically, dates have become current within an year of receiving NVC fee bill but it may not hold going forward. Moreover, if more than a year passes since you applied through CP then you will have to start the process all over again (you will not have to pay the fees again).

[immi2910]

3. I still have my H1B valid for 2 more years. If the GC gets denied for whatever reason during CP, can I come back to US on H1B? And If I do, do I need to start the GC process all over again from PERM?

This part is still not clear, Attorney Ron says when I-485 is denied in a situation the applicant has passed 6 years , then the H1b is invalid.

I think the OP has 2 years left on H1B so he should be fine.

[immi2910]

Q, thank you for your feedback. Yes, I am also thinking that the dates will end up somewhere around middle of 2008.

I agree the date will settle around July-August 2008 for FY 2012. However, the real question is when will they start moving again. I think CO will have to wait until all the applications up to high watermark established this time are cleared before moving the dates. So, if and when the dates retrogress, I think it will take at least a year to get to the high watermark i.e. in FY 2013 there will be no movement beyond the high watermark established in this cycle.

[yzzozzy]

immi2910 & Kanmani, thank you both very much for your inputs. I'll just wait for the April bulletin for now.

[vizcard]

I agree the date will settle around July-August 2008 for FY 2012. However, the real question is when will they start moving again. I think CO will have to wait until all the applications up to high watermark established this time are cleared before moving the dates. So, if and when the dates retrogress, I think it will take at least a year to get to the high watermark i.e. in FY 2013 there will be no movement beyond the high watermark established in this cycle.

This is true. We'll have potentially a new set of PWMBs too. All the more reason to lobby for HR3012.

[nellore]

Long time follower...first time poster.
I am not inclined to believe that there will be another set of huge PWMBs.
I believe, they do have visibility to numbers/projections better than we assume..may be a desi is wirting some code for themwhich gives those numbers :) as we do here.

As far as HR 3012..lets see two scenerios..
1. Dates retrogress..lots of PWMBs. Then that makes sense for lobbying for HR 3012.
2. Dates are current. The it is still easier to lobby as the opposition will be minimum.

[nostwal]

Some one on Trackitt with a PD September 2008 got Greened.

[mesan123]

can you post the details


Some one on Trackitt with a PD September 2008 got Greened.

[nostwal]

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/875517315/i-485-current-in-january-2012-gathering/page/last_page

Looke for Hope2009 user

[kd2008]

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/875517315/i-485-current-in-january-2012-gathering/page/last_page

Looke for Hope2009 user

Look here: http://www.trackitt.com/member/hope2009

[Desperate8]

Guys -

Now its crystal clear , there is no such thing called procedure , its all lottery.

I have never been lucky in lottery so I know I would be last in the queue :).

I think all these number crunch calculations are of no use when we are not sure the way USCIS is going to process cases do you guys agree ???.

NSC is fast then TSC becomes fast , what the heck is this all about rediculous.

FIFO I think that is never followed , RD and PD has no values. I think the best way to discuss on our forums is to look whats currently going on , there is no trend concept.

My 2 cents .... EB2I will go current , every one will be on EAD for next few years- its a minature FIASCO ....those who go green are just a few lucky who should play lottery as there stars are shining , yep believe me go play lottery :)

[suninphx]

He got his EAD/Approved on 27th Feb, I think he was trying to update it and would have updated the 485 approval field by mistake. I did ask him that question, waiting for his response. But if its true, I will be very happy too, bcs mine is June 2008 and I can also expect.

EAD approval date is 22 Feb. He received EAD on 27th. And he got CPO email on 27th as well.

[vizcard]

Very interesting. Almost 2 months to get EAD and a real quick turnaround on the GC as well. NSC staying true to form.

[imdeng]

It is kind of ridiculous that while 30% of Jan EB2I NSC filers are yet to get FP Appointment Letter, 65% of the same filers are yet to get EAD/AP, and one case flies through the radar and gets greened. Although overall it is a good sign that they are now starting on Jan cases - I just wish they would make the FP/EAD/AP process quick as well.

There is of course an element of luck in who picks up your case and how quick/through that person is - but I think it is still within the usual variance of the process and it is not all lottery. There will always be cases that will be in the long tail end of the normal curve (both sides unfortunately), however, as long as bulk of the decisions fall in the middle - the process is working fine.

[tiger_of_web]

Lets not get ahead of ourselves here. May be his EAD got approved that day and by mistake he updated the 485 status. There have to be more approvals to really believe this thing.


Guys -

Now its crystal clear , there is no such thing called procedure , its all lottery.

I have never been lucky in lottery so I know I would be last in the queue :).

I think all these number crunch calculations are of no use when we are not sure the way USCIS is going to process cases do you guys agree ???.

NSC is fast then TSC becomes fast , what the heck is this all about rediculous.

FIFO I think that is never followed , RD and PD has no values. I think the best way to discuss on our forums is to look whats currently going on , there is no trend concept.

My 2 cents .... EB2I will go current , every one will be on EAD for next few years- its a minature FIASCO ....those who go green are just a few lucky who should play lottery as there stars are shining , yep believe me go play lottery :)

[usernameisnotvalid]

If this is true then July-Aug 2008 stall (after retro) guesstimate is wrong?


Look here: http://www.trackitt.com/member/hope2009

[kd2008]

If this is true then July-Aug 2008 stall (after retro) guesstimate is wrong?

No. Approvals are not by PD as you can see. As long as dates do not retrogress, approvals can come from any of the cases that have been filed. Q and I were talking about where will the dates be once they decide to retrogress. That is a different thing.

[vizcard]

KD - what you say is true. As long as a person, he/she can be greened.

The issue is where the visa comes from. Technically all spillover should be allocated by PD. this is the "rule". So is this individual getting a SO visa or the regular quota? It's curious either way - for completely different reasons.

[Transformer]

Lets not get ahead of ourselves here. May be his EAD got approved that day and by mistake he updated the 485 status. There have to be more approvals to really believe this thing.

I don't think it is a mistake. This is what he says:

The magic happened to me last night.

I am greened!!!!!!!!!

Still can not believe it. Waiting for the physical card to arrive before I start jumping.

Got the CPO mail at 6:00 P.M. yesterday
Got the decision mail this morning

Dependent is still pending.

Based on his profile, I see it's one of the low hanging fruits.

1. MS in USA? Yes.
2. Nature of your company(Consulting/Non-IT/fortune 500) - Small Company Non IT
3. Ever changed employers/jobs on H-1B? No
4. How many years in USA and on H-1B? 6th year
5. How many years with your current H-1B employer? 6th year
6. Are there any complexities ever in your case? 221G in March 2011 at visa interview
(Like 221g/porting/SOI/more than one Perm/Out of status/any charges/court records etc..)
7. Have you submitted Late Reg BC and affidavits or just late reg BC? Submitted birth certificate registered 4 weeks after birth along with one affidavit from parents as parents last name was not abbreviated in birth certificate.
8. what about flu shots? Yes

I don't think this will draw any conclusion on how the retrogression is going to be. If anyone in second hald of 2008 gets greened before retrogression they are lucky, as I would think the dates will retrogress around June 2008.

[kd2008]

KD - what you say is true. As long as a person, he/she can be greened.

The issue is where the visa comes from. Technically all spillover should be allocated by PD. this is the "rule". So is this individual getting a SO visa or the regular quota? It's curious either way - for completely different reasons.

But the approvals are not "spillover" in the eyes of Mr. CO. When the demand is less than the available quarterly quota, visas are allocated without regards to the country quotas. We saw this happening in Q1 and are seeing this happen in Q2. When USCIS starts asking for more visas - that is their processing is faster than the quarterly quota, Mr. CO will retrogress and then start using the "spillover" concept.

Inventory is totally different from demand. USCIS has to process the inventory to turn it into demand. That is why I have been saying pressure is on USCIS to process enough cases.

Because there were not enough cases in the inventory at the start of the year, Mr. CO moved dates to generate it. Now USCIS has to process it. It is processing it somewhat orderly fashion but not necessarily in FIFO manner as we can see from the approvals.

This kind of inline processing should have happened all along but USCIS was never good at it and its processing times fluctuated wildly. Thankfully it is happening now. My wild guess is: Mr. CO made dramatic movements in Jan and Feb. For March he replenished was was used up aka Jan approvals and hence we saw a 4 month movement for March. May be he will replenish again in April what was used in Feb. If he is able to do this consistently, there may not be any need for retrogression and we will have a great buffer of inventory always. But this is wishful thinking and very ideal scenario. USCIS always pours water over our dreams.

[qesehmk]

visas are generally issues in order of PD only - but only for cases that are ready to be assigned visas. Cases do not become ready and eligible by PD. They havetheir own course depending on how much due diligence each case requires. Makes sense?


KD - what you say is true. As long as a person, he/she can be greened.

The issue is where the visa comes from. Technically all spillover should be allocated by PD. this is the "rule". So is this individual getting a SO visa or the regular quota? It's curious either way - for completely different reasons.

[HR3012]

How do they know a file is "low hanging fruit" without opening it? My assumption is only when the file is opened for processing they can tell. Is it possible to "pick" those kind of files out of the pool of files?

[enigma]

Another Jan filer (PD - Dec 2008) posted on trackitt that he just got his 485 approval!! Search for the user kumariah on this page -

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/875517315/i-485-current-in-january-2012-gathering/page/68




How do they know a file is "low hanging fruit" without opening it? My assumption is only when the file is opened for processing they can tell. Is it possible to "pick" those kind of files out of the pool of files?

[nostwal]

Damn, this is nice stuff

[nishant2200]

How do they know a file is "low hanging fruit" without opening it? My assumption is only when the file is opened for processing they can tell. Is it possible to "pick" those kind of files out of the pool of files?

I am not sure how it internally works, but per my lawyer, he always maintains, education in USA, steady employment with employer, last three years tax returns/W2 .... => rubber stamp approval once it gets to an officer.

My addition to this is: 485 are adjudicated by senior officers. The file only reaches them when it has been prepared by contractors and junior level officers. It would mean arranging everything properly, putting tabs to indicate areas of interest, indicating any potential areas of verification for more evidence, receiving all background checks and marking them as complete, or needs further review for possible derogatory results by senior officer, I mean one can go on and brainstorm on this. My point is by the time the file is given to the adjudicating officer, it has been well prepared for consumption. As part of this process, also I think, the contractors/juniors would put in the I-140 and PERM file, because this has to be synced up with the EVL and a projection taken based on EVL and past years tax returns W2 supplied.

[HR3012]

I am not sure how it internally works, but per my lawyer, he always maintains, education in USA, steady employment with employer, last three years tax returns/W2 .... => rubber stamp approval once it gets to an officer.

My addition to this is: 485 are adjudicated by senior officers. The file only reaches them when it has been prepared by contractors and junior level officers. It would mean arranging everything properly, putting tabs to indicate areas of interest, indicating any potential areas of verification for more evidence, receiving all background checks and marking them as complete, or needs further review for possible derogatory results by senior officer, I mean one can go on and brainstorm on this. My point is by the time the file is given to the adjudicating officer, it has been well prepared for consumption. As part of this process, also I think, the contractors/juniors would put in the I-140 and PERM file, because this has to be synced up with the EVL and a projection taken based on EVL and past years tax returns W2 supplied.

Thanks for the explanation Nishant, it makes perfect sense now.

[nishant2200]

Thanks for the explanation Nishant, it makes perfect sense now.

Welcome, I am just trying to think their process, which frankly no one knows! I think though, it just helps in bit early approval maybe, if they are in the mode of reaching some processing goal fast, but honestly, there can't be any legal bias or official law to do any partiality. Anyone who is eligible is eligible, it's just some cases due to the nature of their condition, maybe easy to approve fast.

[samudrala]

Hi Friends,

Finally, I am very happy to share the good news with all of you that We received the CPO email today at 3:30 PM PST. for both me and my wife.

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS


Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production


On February 25, 2012, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.


Category: EB2I
PD: 06/06/2007
RD: 10/13/2011
SC: Texas
EAD & AP Approval: 12/15/2011
CPO Email: 02/26/2011

Thanks for all your support and I wish and pray for each and everyone to get their Approval's very soon.

Good Luck to you All

Thanks

[derekjbj]

March 2011 EB2-I received NVC Fee Notice

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/916774223/march-2011-priority-date-nvc-notice

[maggie]

Hi Friends,

Finally, I am very happy to share the good news with all of you that We received the CPO email today at 3:30 PM PST. for both me and my wife.

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS


Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production


On February 25, 2012, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.


Category: EB2I
PD: 06/06/2007
RD: 10/13/2011
SC: Texas
EAD & AP Approval: 12/15/2011
CPO Email: 02/26/2011

Thanks for all your support and I wish and pray for each and everyone to get their Approval's very soon.

Good Luck to you All

Thanks

Congratulations samudrala!!

[GCKnowHow]

Am I in dream... I see in trackitt that someone with 4th Sep 2008 PD got approval.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Friends,

Finally, I am very happy to share the good news with all of you that We received the CPO email today at 3:30 PM PST. for both me and my wife.

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS


Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production


On February 25, 2012, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.


Category: EB2I
PD: 06/06/2007
RD: 10/13/2011
SC: Texas
EAD & AP Approval: 12/15/2011
CPO Email: 02/26/2011

Thanks for all your support and I wish and pray for each and everyone to get their Approval's very soon.

Good Luck to you All

Thanks

Many congratulations to you and your family, enjoy the moment finally another PWMB case is greened.

[vishnu]

Looks like multiple people with H1 2011 PDs are getint NVC fee notices. All good...

[nellore]

Yes..me too..PD 02/02/11

[soggadu]

wow...looks like EB2 is going to get current soon.... all the best guys....get ready!!!!!!!!!

[yesman]

Looks like multiple people with H1 2011 PDs are getint NVC fee notices. All good...

What's the implication of NVC notice? That they should allow the person to file for 485 within 12 months? Or is it that they approve 485 within 12 months?

[just_curious]

What's the implication of NVC notice? That they should allow the person to file for 485 within 12 months? Or is it that they approve 485 within 12 months?

Sending NVC notice is like hanging a carrot in front of the horse, totally confusing..

I know that they don't necessarily need to approve 485, can anyone give a concrete answer for the first part of the question? Is there any time frame at all?

[harsha131]

Are you sure this is EB2-India?


Damn, this is nice stuff

[Jonty Rhodes]

Here is what Ron Gotcher had to say about the "low hanging fruit" theory.

I went through our records today, to see what results we have gotten. First, I found that most of the AOS approvals we received were for EB3 to EB2 upgrade cases where the applicant had an I-485 on file and pending since 2007. These were largely all pre-adjudicated cases. We have had a few new filings that have been approved, but they appear to be anomalies. That is, they were filed after other new filings (in some cases months later), but have been approved nonetheless. This is not at all an unusual phenomenon with the USCIS. The USCIS Ombudsman criticized the USCIS in one of the annual reports for "picking the low hanging fruit." That is, they would pull out what they considered to be very easy cases and approve those, rather than taking more complex cases that were filed earlier.

Hope this clears some air.

[Jan2008]

All my dear peeps,

I wanted to share the news of us getting greened!!

wohoo!!

PD: Jan 6th, 2008
485 Approval: Feb 28th

Thank you all on this forum and hope everyone gets greened soon. God is great!