View Full Version : EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012
vizcard
02-15-2012, 08:13 PM
CASE STATUS UPDATE:
PD : 12/18/2008
RD : 01/12/2012
FP : 02/09/2012
EAD/AP : 02/15/2012
Service center : Texas
1 month for EAD ..impressive. How long did it take to get your FP notice
nishant2200
02-15-2012, 08:20 PM
http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/Hearings%202012/hear_02152012_2.html
Hearing on: "Safeguarding the Integrity of the Immigration Benefits Adjudication Process"
Interesting reads. click on the right side to read the commentaries by USCIS director and other important people.
I have just begun reading.
tiger_of_web
02-15-2012, 09:45 PM
1 month for EAD ..impressive. How long did it take to get your FP notice
I got FP Notice in 2 weeks.
kkruna
02-16-2012, 09:19 AM
Does it look like there are two possibilities for coming months:
1. Dates need not advance. USCIS will process AOS quickly enough to exhaust the visas.
2. Dates will become current for EB2 in June for a month to allow CP to exhaust the visas.
Anything in between will not be a solution (to the problem of exhausting visas). Gurus can englighten.
mesan123
02-16-2012, 09:27 AM
Well point 2 has very minimal chance....mostly it be will in between or point 1
Does it look like there are two possibilities for coming months:
1. Dates need not advance. USCIS will process AOS quickly enough to exhaust the visas.
2. Dates will become current for EB2 in June for a month to allow CP to exhaust the visas.
Anything in between will not be a solution (to the problem of exhausting visas). Gurus can englighten.
imdeng
02-16-2012, 09:54 AM
Well.. 2 is not happening. 1 seems reasonable. USCIS has picked up pace recently - even TSC is in overdrive. There are good 7 months to go in this FY - and if they only finish processing the Jan applicants, they will have enough visa demand to not waste any. USCIS is also adjusting to the new situation where they don't have pre-adjudicated visas to quickly push through - and I think they are doing fine.
Does it look like there are two possibilities for coming months:
1. Dates need not advance. USCIS will process AOS quickly enough to exhaust the visas.
2. Dates will become current for EB2 in June for a month to allow CP to exhaust the visas.
Anything in between will not be a solution (to the problem of exhausting visas). Gurus can englighten.
kolugc
02-16-2012, 10:18 AM
Need advice
I got my EAD/AP approved last week, hopefully be receiving the combo card sometime soon. My PD is June 9, 2008.
My questions is, I am travelling to India after 5 years on Apr 13th or so. And planning to be back by May Ist week. I am aware I don't need stamping and can get in using AP. But while I am in India, if my 485 is approved.
1. What I should be doing?
2. Should I ask my friends here to FedEx the (485) Approval Notice or email a copy?
3. Should I ask my friends here to FedEx the GC or email a copy?
4. Use AP is get in?
Thanks all..
Desperate8
02-16-2012, 10:38 AM
Guys -
Just wanted to share with you that I have got several updates on my EAD / AP the final one says cards with USPS (no tracking number given though).
My PD is Oct 2008 and the service center is TSC . I got EAD/AP approval in 37 days . FP notice in 2 weeks (FP done aswell).
The surprising fact is that the Processing Times for EAD/AP for TSC shows as Aug 23 2011. What is going on ? Is this date not updated yet ? How often they post the processing times ? I am asking this because I-485 Processing time is March 2011 which is not likely to be it based on my experience with EAD/AP. Can you guys shed some light and knowledge on this ?
apte0002
02-16-2012, 11:07 AM
Need Advice.
My I-140 was approved from the Texas Service Centre in 2010. Now my attorney applied my I-485 from the Nebraska Service Centre. Couple of questions :
1. Will my I-485 case get transferred back to Texas Service Centre?
2. Will this delay my process?
Thanks.
grnwtg
02-16-2012, 11:19 AM
From what I am seeing from past 7-8 years, Processing times of USCIS means NOTHING to us, that simply might be the oldest case in the inventory which they are processing. But, When you call USCIS, they just mention this date( which is always backlogged) inorder not to pressurize their staff/answer to congreesmen(or)senators queries.
Guys -
Just wanted to share with you that I have got several updates on my EAD / AP the final one says cards with USPS (no tracking number given though).
My PD is Oct 2008 and the service center is TSC . I got EAD/AP approval in 37 days . FP notice in 2 weeks (FP done aswell).
The surprising fact is that the Processing Times for EAD/AP for TSC shows as Aug 23 2011. What is going on ? Is this date not updated yet ? How often they post the processing times ? I am asking this because I-485 Processing time is March 2011 which is not likely to be it based on my experience with EAD/AP. Can you guys shed some light and knowledge on this ?
kkruna
02-16-2012, 11:20 AM
I would think so. But not sure what CO would gain by advancing dates then. This would only lead to making available 'low hanging fruits' to USCIS.
Well.. 2 is not happening. 1 seems reasonable. USCIS has picked up pace recently - even TSC is in overdrive. There are good 7 months to go in this FY - and if they only finish processing the Jan applicants, they will have enough visa demand to not waste any. USCIS is also adjusting to the new situation where they don't have pre-adjudicated visas to quickly push through - and I think they are doing fine.
GC-Utopic
02-16-2012, 11:40 AM
Need Advice.
My I-140 was approved from the Texas Service Centre in 2010. Now my attorney applied my I-485 from the Nebraska Service Centre. Couple of questions :
1. Will my I-485 case get transferred back to Texas Service Centre?
2. Will this delay my process?
Thanks.
Your Attorney submits to the respective lockbox based on your residence/job offer, lockbox will send your I485 to either Nebraska or Texas based on caseload distribution, your I140 approved center etc.
It is not normal for an attorney to send to SRC or LIN directly,,,,
imdeng
02-16-2012, 11:50 AM
1. Nothing
2. GC comes via USPS Priority Mail, it will be delivered to your mailbox, no signature needed. Ask a "dependable" friend to clear your mailbox regularly once you receive the email notice of CPO.
3. Ask your friend to send you a copy of the GC when it comes, so that you have the same when you enter USA (although it is not necessary for entry)
4. Yes. You will need to go through a secondary inspection - but thats normal and routine for AP.
Have fun in India. Five years are more like 20 in India's case - so be ready for surprises - the place is changing so fast!
Need advice
I got my EAD/AP approved last week, hopefully be receiving the combo card sometime soon. My PD is June 9, 2008.
My questions is, I am travelling to India after 5 years on Apr 13th or so. And planning to be back by May Ist week. I am aware I don't need stamping and can get in using AP. But while I am in India, if my 485 is approved.
1. What I should be doing?
2. Should I ask my friends here to FedEx the (485) Approval Notice or email a copy?
3. Should I ask my friends here to FedEx the GC or email a copy?
4. Use AP is get in?
Thanks all..
imdeng
02-16-2012, 11:52 AM
CO is building inventory for future so that they have a clear idea of how much demand is out there. Nothing wrong in making low hanging fruits available to USCIS.
I would think so. But not sure what CO would gain by advancing dates then. This would only lead to making available 'low hanging fruits' to USCIS.
Rachel
02-16-2012, 11:53 AM
Hi all,
My PD is jun 2008. My application was sent to TSC lockbox on Feb 8th. Thru tracking Fedex I can see it has reached. However, I dont know when/how will I receive the Receipt notification? The lawyer's automated response said 45-60 days to get receipt notice??? I have seen on this forum folks receiving receipt notice within 10 days-15 days of application...Also, who is going to receive all the notifications - FP/ cards on the way?? Could somebody please streamline all the next steps, mail/text/email, time range after the application has been mailed?
Thanks a lot! This forum is the best I have found for immigration information plus the most helpful people ever.
mysati
02-16-2012, 11:55 AM
Need advice
I got my EAD/AP approved last week, hopefully be receiving the combo card sometime soon. My PD is June 9, 2008.
My questions is, I am travelling to India after 5 years on Apr 13th or so. And planning to be back by May Ist week. I am aware I don't need stamping and can get in using AP. But while I am in India, if my 485 is approved.
1. What I should be doing?
2. Should I ask my friends here to FedEx the (485) Approval Notice or email a copy?
3. Should I ask my friends here to FedEx the GC or email a copy?
4. Use AP is get in?
Thanks all..
AFAIK, you need to be in the US when they approve your 485 (on the day of approval). You might have to plan your trip accordingly.
kolugc
02-16-2012, 12:08 PM
Thanks a lot imdeng..!!!! I am going to do what you said.. and it make sense...
But if my friend can pick up the card, I can ask him to FedEx it to India and i can bring that back when I enter here right? Or this is not what they expect us to?
1. Nothing
2. GC comes via USPS Priority Mail, it will be delivered to your mailbox, no signature needed. Ask a "dependable" friend to clear your mailbox regularly once you receive the email notice of CPO.
3. Ask your friend to send you a copy of the GC when it comes, so that you have the same when you enter USA (although it is not necessary for entry)
4. Yes. You will need to go through a secondary inspection - but thats normal and routine for AP.
Have fun in India. Five years are more like 20 in India's case - so be ready for surprises - the place is changing so fast!
pdfeb09
02-16-2012, 12:10 PM
Hi all,
My PD is jun 2008. My application was sent to TSC lockbox on Feb 8th. Thru tracking Fedex I can see it has reached. However, I dont know when/how will I receive the Receipt notification? The lawyer's automated response said 45-60 days to get receipt notice??? I have seen on this forum folks receiving receipt notice within 10 days-15 days of application...Also, who is going to receive all the notifications - FP/ cards on the way?? Could somebody please streamline all the next steps, mail/text/email, time range after the application has been mailed?
Thanks a lot! This forum is the best I have found for immigration information plus the most helpful people ever.
You should normally receive your receipts in a couple of weeks. There have been instances where they have taken longer. You will get all the notifications in the mail at your own residence. For more information/discussion/questions on this go to Post I485 Filing (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?238-Post-485-Filing) thread.
imdeng
02-16-2012, 12:41 PM
Only things you need for entry is AP+Passport. Whether you want your friend to send you a copy of the GC or the GC itself is really your choice. FedEx should be fine - from a safety point of view - you don't want to lose that card in the mail.
Thanks a lot imdeng..!!!! I am going to do what you said.. and it make sense...
But if my friend can pick up the card, I can ask him to FedEx it to India and i can bring that back when I enter here right? Or this is not what they expect us to?
reachme_s
02-16-2012, 12:42 PM
1. Nothing
2. GC comes via USPS Priority Mail, it will be delivered to your mailbox, no signature needed. Ask a "dependable" friend to clear your mailbox regularly once you receive the email notice of CPO.
3. Ask your friend to send you a copy of the GC when it comes, so that you have the same when you enter USA (although it is not necessary for entry)
4. Yes. You will need to go through a secondary inspection - but thats normal and routine for AP.
Have fun in India. Five years are more like 20 in India's case - so be ready for surprises - the place is changing so fast!
I see in your signature that you're seeing LUDs online starting from 2/14. My notice date is 2/7, but still not able to see the case online. Should I contact someone for this?
imdeng
02-16-2012, 12:42 PM
No - you need to be here when you apply for 485. Once applied and received by USCIS, you can travel outside the country.
AFAIK, you need to be in the US when they approve your 485 (on the day of approval). You might have to plan your trip accordingly.
Kanmani
02-16-2012, 12:45 PM
Once your I-485 is approved , your non-immigrant status is invalid thereafter. So you cannot enter with H1b stamp/AP.
You are required to get an immigrant stamp at the consulate to re-enter .
Thanks a lot imdeng..!!!! I am going to do what you said.. and it make sense...
But if my friend can pick up the card, I can ask him to FedEx it to India and i can bring that back when I enter here right? Or this is not what they expect us to?
imdeng
02-16-2012, 12:46 PM
I would say wait for a few more days and then call the help line in the receipt number. Since your checks are already cashed - and you have received the Receipt Notice, I don't think there is anything to worry about.
I see in your signature that you're seeing LUDs online starting from 2/14. My notice date is 2/7, but still not able to see the case online. Should I contact someone for this?
imdeng
02-16-2012, 12:54 PM
Hmmm... you are in fact right Kanmani - since 485 is approved, the applicant needs to enter as a PR - so AP will not work. In that case, the applicant needs the physical GC (through FedEx) or the Immigrant Stamp in the passport. I think I need to put a big disclaimer in my signature - I am passing along a lot of secondary info, impressions and opinions and can result in chaos for someone.
Once your I-485 is approved , your non-immigrant status is invalid thereafter. So you cannot enter with H1b stamp/AP.
You are required to get an immigrant stamp at the consulate to re-enter .
imdeng
02-16-2012, 12:55 PM
kolugc - please see the post by Kanmani below. I was wrong in my impression.
Thanks a lot imdeng..!!!! I am going to do what you said.. and it make sense...
But if my friend can pick up the card, I can ask him to FedEx it to India and i can bring that back when I enter here right? Or this is not what they expect us to?
GC-Utopic
02-16-2012, 12:56 PM
Only things you need for entry is AP+Passport. Whether you want your friend to send you a copy of the GC or the GC itself is really your choice. FedEx should be fine - from a safety point of view - you don't want to lose that card in the mail.
AFAIK, imdeng is wrong here, check with your lawyer again, but, once your 485 is approved you cannot use AP to enter, you need to go to consulate and get an immigrant stamp, entering with a card mailed to them is done by people before with no issues but its a risky move at POE, having an immigrant stamp is the best option, rest is upto your risk tolerance.
Kanmani
02-16-2012, 01:11 PM
Whenever I-485 is approved for the applicant who is out of USA, the applicant cannot use the GC for entering US . It is just like Consular Processing , the CP-applicant will be stamped with immigrant visa in the passport and Physical GC is issued after entering USA.
nishant2200
02-16-2012, 01:15 PM
Thank you SPec.
Nishant,
July 2007 was about lack of "Documentarily Qualified Demand" and DOS not believing that USCIS could adjudicate sufficient numbers as far as I am aware.
Going back to when the "new interpretation" started, I would concede that it is possible that it started in FY2007, but EB2 didn't see significant benefit until FY2008.
If you look at FY2007, EB1 received 26,806 visas, EB4 4,794 and EB5 793.
The available numbers to EB were 147,148 visas plus 7,312 recaptured visas.
If we just use the 147k figure, that means the EB1 allocation was 43,084 and the EB4 & EB5 allocation was 10,448 each.
Theoretical Spillover visas from EB1/4/5 would have been (43,084-26,806) + (10,448-4,794) + (10,448-793) = 31,587
Extra numbers from EB2-non IC raised this to 35,379.
EB2-C received 6,797 total visas in FY2007
EB2-I received 6,204 total visas in FY2007
EB3 received 77,667 visas in FY2007. Of those, EB3-I received 17,985 visas. It is possible there simply weren't enough EB2 cases that could be adjudicated in FY2007. It is slightly puzzling to understand how EB3-I could receive so many visas, unless EB-non IC also ran out of cases that could be adjudicated as well.
In FY2008, theoretical Spillover was 27,602.
EB2-C received 3.7k Spillover
EB2-I received 11.5k Spillover
In addition EB2-ROW used 11.4k Spillover and some were wasted.
EB3 approvals were in line with the total visas allocated to EB3.
GC-Utopic
02-16-2012, 01:20 PM
Whenever I-485 is approved for the applicant who is out of USA, the applicant cannot use the GC for entering US . It is just like Consular Processing , the CP-applicant will be stamped with immigrant visa in the passport and Physical GC is issued after entering USA.
I concur completely with you on this, but you will find on other forums where many people outside USA when 485 approved entered with no issues with somebody mailing them the card, I think its a risky move, POE officer hv a valid reason not to admit you but its rarely implemented,,,jmho,,,
nishant2200
02-16-2012, 01:20 PM
CO is building inventory for future so that they have a clear idea of how much demand is out there. Nothing wrong in making low hanging fruits available to USCIS.
Yes, it may sound unfair to some of us, which is also understandable. But I do think that even some lucky Jan filers may get approvals starting March while some Nov-Dec filers would be waiting.
Whatever date period is current, in that, although as pointed out by me earlier, CO believes that spillover visas is to be granted strictly in order of PD, I am pretty sure when it comes to USCIS processing, it's luck of the draw. It's not totally their fault, as the current process is variable because of mainly background checks and FP Scheduling, and as soon as an app is ready for approval and is with IO, he just goes ahead and hits the button. Ideal process would be that they make a queue of pre-adjudicated applications with inserts in order of PD into the queue at applicable spots even if the dates are current, and then around end of month, applicants are dequeued from that queue for a certain amount of visa numbers.
This is not going to happen though, so yes, I again maintain my lucky draw theory, and RD is important just because it makes your file eligible for the lucky draw sooner :)
manzoorraza
02-16-2012, 01:40 PM
Reachme,
I am in the same situation and did check with my attorney (who is of decent repute) if this was something to worry about. They came back saying that this is normal for some cases and nothing to worry about; he clarified that this is due to a known glitch at USCIS and they have already acknowledged the same. Further, I was told, that the case would be processed as usual and at some point (in a couple of weeks) the status would start showing on the tracker and in the meantime I should expect the FP notice soon.
Hope this calms you down a bit... :)
I see in your signature that you're seeing LUDs online starting from 2/14. My notice date is 2/7, but still not able to see the case online. Should I contact someone for this?
Desperate8
02-16-2012, 01:45 PM
I have heard that People check their FP status by calling FBI - How much reliable is that ?
Did anyone of you guys check that. If so what is the number to call and after how many weeks / days.
I have heard people saying TSC is slow, in case of Jan Filers EAD/AP/FP it was proven wrong, when do you think all 2008 PD cases will be processed - I am just getting your opinion on this.
reachme_s
02-16-2012, 01:56 PM
Reachme,
I am in the same situation and did check with my attorney (who is of decent repute) if this was something to worry about. They came back saying that this is normal for some cases and nothing to worry about; he clarified that this is due to a known glitch at USCIS and they have already acknowledged the same. Further, I was told, that the case would be processed as usual and at some point (in a couple of weeks) the status would start showing on the tracker and in the meantime I should expect the FP notice soon.
Hope this calms you down a bit... :)
Thanks manzoorraza! Yes, it sure does! :) Lets hope it shows up soon..
Kanmani
02-16-2012, 01:57 PM
Is it not offense to open other's mail in US?
Googled - It is a federal crime to open someone else's mail.
I concur completely with you on this, but you will find on other forums where many people outside USA when 485 approved entered with no issues with somebody mailing them the card, I think its a risky move, POE officer hv a valid reason not to admit you but its rarely implemented,,,jmho,,,
la_2002_ch
02-16-2012, 01:58 PM
Yes you can check the FP processing status by calling FBI. I did the same by calling 304-625-5590.
I guess since its FBI customer service, it should be as reliable as it can be. I went for FP on Friday and called on Tuesday to check the status. So I guess 24-48 hours after the FP notice, should be good.
I have heard that People check their FP status by calling FBI - How much reliable is that ?
Did anyone of you guys check that. If so what is the number to call and after how many weeks / days.
I have heard people saying TSC is slow, in case of Jan Filers EAD/AP/FP it was proven wrong, when do you think all 2008 PD cases will be processed - I am just getting your opinion on this.
kkruna
02-16-2012, 02:08 PM
New post from CM talks about 'low demand' theory. PERM to Inventory Factor of 0.42?
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/02/visa-bulletin-march-2012.html
mesan123
02-16-2012, 02:27 PM
CM post looks promising...if his prediction is correct. i meant PERM to Inventory Factor of 0.42 . then as he mentioned retrogression will be less and dates will start moving again in FY2013 first quater as they have to again build the inventory. may be the movement will be 1 to 3 months each bulletion
New post from CM talks about 'low demand' theory. PERM to Inventory Factor of 0.42?
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/02/visa-bulletin-march-2012.html
nishant2200
02-16-2012, 02:36 PM
CM post looks promising...if his prediction is correct. i meant PERM to Inventory Factor of 0.42 . then as he mentioned retrogression will be less and dates will start moving again in FY2013 first quater as they have to again build the inventory. may be the movement will be 1 to 3 months each bulletion
I agree, it made my day too :)
I have never got things the easy way, no lucky draws, no lotteries, no short lines, I am fully expecting myself to call USCIS around April 2nd week to request a SR to look at my case as it is past the 4 months processing time of NSC, and hence it is critical that dates remain current for me in rest of the FY!
ismile
02-16-2012, 02:37 PM
This is my post, hoping you guys can guide me on this My empoyer emailed me to sign a compliance policy saying "USCIS requires employer to offer the Perm position to employee for atleast 12 months after the green card approval else there will be consequences when employee apply for the citizenship" is it true?
Reader
02-16-2012, 02:37 PM
My company attorney does not have a clue on anything. For 245K, he did not know anything and had to get back to me after discussing with his boss. For checking the status violations, he does not agree that only the status violations after the most recent lawful admission will be checked. I had to take paid consulation with the famous attorney for clarifications.. Anyway...
Now, here is the question that I have to make a decision on whether / when to file extension for my H1 which is expiring on May 15th. If my 485 is approved and dependant's 485 is pending, what will be the status of H4 holder at that point. Even though her H4 - I94 would be a valid future date, would she accumulate unlawful presence if the 485 is denied later, few months after my 485 is approved. Please share your thoughts...
nishant2200
02-16-2012, 02:40 PM
This is my post, hoping you guys can guide me on this My empoyer emailed me to sign a compliance policy saying "USCIS requires employer to offer the Perm position to employee for atleast 12 months after the green card approval else there will be consequences when employee apply for the citizenship" is it true?
this is bogus. there is no such compliance policy advertised by USCIS.
ur company just wants you to stick around at least for a year after GC and is resorting to measures like this.
ismile
02-16-2012, 02:41 PM
Thank you nishant for your prompt reply.
kolugc
02-16-2012, 02:47 PM
Thanks Kanmani and imdeng..!!
So when I go to India, its again not that straight forward... Once in India if I get my 485 approved, I have to head to Chennai and get it stamped.
Woww.... I thought I was done with this stamping...
But thanks once again....
Whenever I-485 is approved for the applicant who is out of USA, the applicant cannot use the GC for entering US . It is just like Consular Processing , the CP-applicant will be stamped with immigrant visa in the passport and Physical GC is issued after entering USA.
mesan123
02-16-2012, 02:48 PM
Dont worry nishanth...you will be greened pretty soon...i feel strongly that you will get the card before you end up calling them :)...
I agree, it made my day too :)
I have never got things the easy way, no lucky draws, no lotteries, no short lines, I am fully expecting myself to call USCIS around April 2nd week to request a SR to look at my case as it is past the 4 months processing time of NSC, and hence it is critical that dates remain current for me in rest of the FY!
mygctracker
02-16-2012, 02:55 PM
Reader,
H4 becomes VOID after Primary AOS is approved. But if derivative applied for AOS, they would be covered by AOS status and not H4 status.
If Primary AOS is approved, then chances of derivative AOS denial are equal to zero.
Thanks
My company attorney does not have a clue on anything. For 245K, he did not know anything and had to get back to me after discussing with his boss. For checking the status violations, he does not agree that only the status violations after the most recent lawful admission will be checked. I had to take paid consulation with the famous attorney for clarifications.. Anyway...
Now, here is the question that I have to make a decision on whether / when to file extension for my H1 which is expiring on May 15th. If my 485 is approved and dependant's 485 is pending, what will be the status of H4 holder at that point. Even though her H4 - I94 would be a valid future date, would she accumulate unlawful presence if the 485 is denied later, few months after my 485 is approved. Please share your thoughts...
AT2011
02-16-2012, 02:59 PM
Gurus,
One of my friends just received email & text from USCIS that her GC got approved.
PD - Nov 2007
RD - Dec 1, 2011
EAD approved - Feb 4th
My other friend has PD of April 22, 2007 and his application reached USCIS around Nov 14, 2011. His family got their EAD combo card around Jan 30th, 2012 but are still waiting for the GC approval.
I can't really figure out how exactly USCIS gives priority to what cases...
Amit
mesan123
02-16-2012, 03:08 PM
It is not only priority date. you have to consider, both of them are current and may be your other friend 485 is not yet cleared, may be they are waiting on FBI clearence or someotehr thing, just because one person case is pending , they cant waste the visa number, they will give that visa number to whose ever date is current and the 485 is approved.
Gurus,
One of my friends just received email & text from USCIS that her GC got approved.
PD - Nov 2007
RD - Dec 1, 2011
EAD approved - Feb 4th
My other friend has PD of April 22, 2007 and his application reached USCIS around Nov 14, 2011. His family got their EAD combo card around Jan 30th, 2012 but are still waiting for the GC approval.
I can't really figure out how exactly USCIS gives priority to what cases...
Amit
Kanmani
02-16-2012, 03:14 PM
Reader
You can enlighten you attorney with the below memo ( Page 3 )
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/Archives%201998-2008/2008/245(k)_14jul08.pdf
usernameisnotvalid
02-16-2012, 03:21 PM
I agree. The first part is bogus; there is not such law or requirement but second part has some truth in it - "There will be consequences when employee apply for the citizenship" - but again it depends. I won't worry about it though.
this is bogus. there is no such compliance policy advertised by USCIS.
ur company just wants you to stick around at least for a year after GC and is resorting to measures like this.
Kanmani
02-16-2012, 03:55 PM
Thanks Kanmani and imdeng..!!
So when I go to India, its again not that straight forward... Once in India if I get my 485 approved, I have to head to Chennai and get it stamped.
Woww.... I thought I was done with this stamping...
But thanks once again....
Kolugc
U.S. Consulate General in Chennai will no longer process Immigrant Visa petitions as of January 1, 2012... ..http://chennai.usconsulate.gov/immigrantstous.html
You may need to visit Mumbai/Delhi Consulate for immigrant visa stamping . Just for information :-)
suninphx
02-16-2012, 04:02 PM
Reader
You can enlighten you attorney with the below memo ( Page 3 )
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/Archives%201998-2008/2008/245(k)_14jul08.pdf
Or have Kanmani represent you.....once she has EAD :)
mygctracker
02-16-2012, 04:04 PM
Stringent H1B Visa measures in Hyderabad,India consulate for IT consultants.
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/02/14/h-1b-beneficiary-attestation-introduced-by-us-consulate-in-hyderabad/?utm_source=Capitol+Immigration+Law+Group+Newslett er&utm_campaign=134eaeda47-Weekly_Newsletter_Feb_16_2012&utm_medium=email
codesmith
02-16-2012, 04:29 PM
Or have Kanmani represent you.....once she has EAD :)
I totally agree with you sun, I think there are many on this forum like Q/Teddy/Spe/Nishanth can be immi-lawyers :)
Spectator
02-16-2012, 04:31 PM
New post from CM talks about 'low demand' theory. PERM to Inventory Factor of 0.42?
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/02/visa-bulletin-march-2012.html
CM post looks promising...if his prediction is correct. i meant PERM to Inventory Factor of 0.42 . then as he mentioned retrogression will be less and dates will start moving again in FY2013 first quater as they have to again build the inventory. may be the movement will be 1 to 3 months each bulletion
I agree, it made my day too :)
I have never got things the easy way, no lucky draws, no lotteries, no short lines, I am fully expecting myself to call USCIS around April 2nd week to request a SR to look at my case as it is past the 4 months processing time of NSC, and hence it is critical that dates remain current for me in rest of the FY!I would just say there is a fairly big error in what the table says it represents and the figures in the table.
Either way, the OR of 0.42 mentioned is incorrect. Maybe you can spot it too.
vishnu
02-16-2012, 04:33 PM
My PD is Sep 2010. My attorney had filed for CP at I-140 stage. Anyway, I just received the NVC fee receipt notice!
vizcard
02-16-2012, 04:39 PM
Yes you can check the FP processing status by calling FBI. I did the same by calling 304-625-5590.
I guess since its FBI customer service, it should be as reliable as it can be. I went for FP on Friday and called on Tuesday to check the status. So I guess 24-48 hours after the FP notice, should be good.
what did you specifically check? Whether there were red flags?
mesan123
02-16-2012, 04:42 PM
tnx for information....this information helps.....atleast people with sep 2010 proirity date will be current for sure with in next one year :)
My PD is Sep 2010. My attorney had filed for CP at I-140 stage. Anyway, I just received the NVC fee receipt notice!
kd2008
02-16-2012, 04:44 PM
My PD is Sep 2010. My attorney had filed for CP at I-140 stage. Anyway, I just received the NVC fee receipt notice!
Vishnu, thank you for sharing this info. Could you please share with us the exact date of your PD?
Kanmani
02-16-2012, 04:45 PM
Vishnu, attorney's mistake or you opted for CP ?
ontheedge
02-16-2012, 05:06 PM
Kolugc
U.S. Consulate General in Chennai will no longer process Immigrant Visa petitions as of January 1, 2012... ..http://chennai.usconsulate.gov/immigrantstous.html
You may need to visit Mumbai/Delhi Consulate for immigrant visa stamping . Just for information :-)
You are such a treasure trove of information, Kanmani! You rock!
Jonty Rhodes
02-16-2012, 05:33 PM
PERM Fact Sheet for FY2012 published today. Contains YTD information for FY2012.
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Factsheet_Jan_2012.pdf
kolugc
02-16-2012, 05:33 PM
OMG...!!!
Let me research on it now..
Never knew all these..
Thanks a lot Kanmani..!!
Kolugc
U.S. Consulate General in Chennai will no longer process Immigrant Visa petitions as of January 1, 2012... ..http://chennai.usconsulate.gov/immigrantstous.html
You may need to visit Mumbai/Delhi Consulate for immigrant visa stamping . Just for information :-)
Prabhas
02-16-2012, 05:38 PM
I would just say there is a fairly big error in what the table says it represents and the figures in the table.
Either way, the OR of 0.42 mentioned is incorrect. Maybe you can spot it too.
Spec,
Though I am not savy enough to judge the OR being 0.42 or .75 etc, it is for sure that the demand destruction is huge atleast from the recent report by NFAP which I believe it mentioned that the H1-B refusals from India was as much as 40-50% since begining of 2009.I might be wrong but this is what I read in that atricle or from some article interpretations. While I feel bad for those who got stuck back in India with these RFE's & Rejections, it did actually impact the DD to significant extent.Just my 2cents.
mesan123
02-16-2012, 05:39 PM
this change started in last 2-3 months....
OMG...!!!
Let me research on it now..
Never knew all these..
Thanks a lot Kanmani..!!
Vikrant
02-16-2012, 06:00 PM
I would just say there is a fairly big error in what the table says it represents and the figures in the table.
Either way, the OR of 0.42 mentioned is incorrect. Maybe you can spot it too.
If I understand correctly, the OR converts the total number of PERM filings into total number of GC filings (I-485 demand plus CP demand) and you would need to multiply by a factor (0.85 or 0.90) to get to I-485 filings. This number would be comparable to I-485 filings on trackitt and I-485 pending inventory report.
kkruna
02-16-2012, 06:21 PM
Is this a precursor or just a stray case? I mean the upshot that Sep 2010 would be current in a year is indeed significant. Can USCIS project status one year ahead?
My PD is Sep 2010. My attorney had filed for CP at I-140 stage. Anyway, I just received the NVC fee receipt notice!
Spectator
02-16-2012, 06:24 PM
I have been a silent follower of this blog for the last couple of months and am really impressed with the overall level of insight, knowledge and caliber of the members (special shout out to Spec, Teddy, Q, Nishant, Kanmani , KD, imdeng and apologies for missing out others... don't want the list to run in pages). The information and the quick response time on the blog are amazing. Ironically, it is a dismal sign about the state of immigration affairs in US that an average person has to educate oneself so much to not trip the million hurdles on way to GC.
I wanted to discuss a few hypothesis/ questions which come to mind after the recent run-up in EB2 (I&C) category and the permanent lack of quality data from government agencies. I assume that CP (approx. 3 months processing time) would allow a number of EB2 (I&C) Jan filers (PD prior to 1/1/2009) to get GC in March/ April due to no retrogression in March (and maybe even April). I am sure that CO is well aware of this difference in USCIS and CP processing time.
a. If the dates do retrogress back to say July 2008 in the summer of 2012, how does DoS/ DHS justify issuance of GC to person with PD of Dec 2008 through CP but no GC for PD of July 2008 through AoS even though there was no delay in filing or lack of paperwork by the July 2008 AoS applicant? Does such an applicant (July 2008 AoS) have any legal recourse since such a person has been wrongfully denied GC while someone with later PD gets GC? To minimize such legal risk and create an alibi, can we expect RFE from USCIS for cases that are after the retrogressed date?
b. Does this mean that dates have to retrogress starting April (and not summer 2012 as widely expected right now) to avoid the situation in (a) above?
c. Alternatively, if the April bulletin does not retrogress, is it safe to assume that retrogression will be much closer to Jan 1, 2009 (cut-off date of Jan VB)?
I am inclined to believe that by law (or at least in spirit), GC is required be handed out in order of PD. Although in practical world, the strict enforcement of FIFO is difficult (timing differences of filing I-485, processing speed at service center/ of individual cases etc), I would assume that there shouldn’t be a material deviation from FIFO. Failure would lead to processing arbitrage as people who are most unlikely to get a GC in the current FY (eg: late 2009 or early 2010 PD) could opt for CP as it would give them a better shot at GC in current FY (even with the risks associated with CP vs AoS). Is there a way to switch between AoS and CP interchangeably multiple times after I-485 filing since that may prevent/ limit processing arbitrage? I know that you can switch processing (AoS to CP) prior to I-485 filing. Has anyone on the forum discussed legal recourse with an attorney if people with a later PD are approved GC than yours?
If retrogression is solely based on USCIS visa demand and DoS has no visibility into the USCIS, then CO would make the dates current rather than rely on a department he has no control over and lose visas. Even with a huge PD movement in remaining bulletins, only some of the new petitions would convert into actual visa demand based on USCIS processing times. So there is obviously more at play and I find it difficult to comprehend that there is no co-ordination between USCIS and Visa Office.
Has anyone modeled the number of projected GC filings (I-485 plus CP filings) based on the monthly bulletins? I am trying to figure out the potential cumulative GC filings until March 2012 leading to eventual I-485 inventory build-up and would appreciate if the gurus can provide tables/ data. This may help in fine tuning the models and assumptions once more concrete data (I-485 Inventory reports, Demand Data etc) is available and also provide clarity on next round of PD movement.You asked for a response, but I think it has been covered pretty well already.
The INA does say (sort of) that approvals should be made in PD order.
INA 203(e) Order of Consideration. -
(1) Immigrant visas made available under subsection (a) or (b) shall be issued to eligible immigrants in the order in which a petition in behalf of each such immigrant is filed with the Attorney General (or in the case of special immigrants under section 101(a)(27)(D) , with the Secretary of State) as provided in section 204(a) .
The Visa Office has only one overriding mission - to ensure that no visa is wasted. They have been doing an exceptional job in recent years.
The disparity in processing times stems from the very different approaches by DOS and USCIS.
Since DOS "pre-process" applications, they can finish the process far more quickly when a PD becomes Current and USCIS do not have pre-adjudicated cases to finalize. There has been talk in the pat of introducing a Pre-Registration step for AOS, but nothing has come of it to date. Presumably this would allow items such as background checks and many RFEs to be processed prior to the PD becoming Current. Essentially it would be similar to the DOS system.
DOS cannot control USCIS processing efficiency - they can only be accountable for those cases which DOS is processing.
Given that USCIS have failed to process sufficient cases in the past, DOS would be foolish not to close out as many of their own case load as they can. The last time they could properly judge that was in 2007.
As long as the PD is Current and the approval is therefore legal, they cannot and should not be held accountable for USCIS failings or triumphs.
It is not a one-way street either. CP applicants are not eligible for the benefits of AP or EAD. For many, they cannot start work in the USA until a Visa is issued. That is not true of AOS applicants.
An individual can choose whether to pursue CP or AOS, knowing the pros and cons of each approach.
DOS can also have their own bottlenecks, if there are more applicants than interview slots available. For some Countries, that could be a factor.
Different cases takes different times to become "documentarily qualified". That is just a fact of life.
Particularly in EB2-IC, where the level of CP is very low, the numbers involved who might get approved with a later PD would be tiny anyway.
The fact is that more than enough applications have been generated by the VB movement to date to take care of the available visas for FY2012, whatever the scenario.
At some point, DOS will retrogress the Cut Off Dates to control the number of applicants who are eligible to be approved.
That retrogression will probably have a safety margin for USCIS processing efficiency.
As for making the dates Current, that is not going to happen. That would generate up to 100k total Inventory for EB2-IC IMO.
Life is unfair at times. Best get used to it. :)
skpanda
02-16-2012, 06:29 PM
Could you plz share the link for NFAP report? Thanks!
Spec,
Though I am not savy enough to judge the OR being 0.42 or .75 etc, it is for sure that the demand destruction is huge atleast from the recent report by NFAP which I believe it mentioned that the H1-B refusals from India was as much as 40-50% since begining of 2009.I might be wrong but this is what I read in that atricle or from some article interpretations. While I feel bad for those who got stuck back in India with these RFE's & Rejections, it did actually impact the DD to significant extent.Just my 2cents.
imdeng
02-16-2012, 06:42 PM
This is a good sign. In my opinion it is too early for DoS to be thinking of FY2013 - so if they are sending fee notices for Sep 2010 then they perhaps do intend to make the PD go to Sept 2010 in next couple months.
My PD is Sep 2010. My attorney had filed for CP at I-140 stage. Anyway, I just received the NVC fee receipt notice!
Prabhas
02-16-2012, 06:48 PM
Could you plz share the link for NFAP report? Thanks!
Hey Panda,
I read it on immigration-law dot com. attached the document for your reference. Meantime I will try to get the interpretations that I read elsewhere but this doc should give you headstart.
vizcard
02-16-2012, 06:49 PM
My PD is Sep 2010. My attorney had filed for CP at I-140 stage. Anyway, I just received the NVC fee receipt notice!
Can I ask what your specific PD is? My brother is also in Sept 2010 and I think he's around the 15th or 20th.
vishnu
02-16-2012, 08:54 PM
My PD is Sep 30 EB2 I
la_2002_ch
02-16-2012, 11:17 PM
what did you specifically check? Whether there were red flags?
They won't tell you about any red flags. All they told me was that the prints were processed the same day and returned to USCIS. The main thing to check is if the prints were clear enough for FBI to process them.
given that they have all my information in the system, if there were any red flags I m sure the police department must have curvlrd my home by now. :)
skpanda
02-16-2012, 11:43 PM
Thanks Prabhas!
Hey Panda,
I read it on immigration-law dot com. attached the document for your reference. Meantime I will try to get the interpretations that I read elsewhere but this doc should give you headstart.
vgraj1
02-16-2012, 11:59 PM
You asked for a response, but I think it has been covered pretty well already.
The INA does say (sort of) that approvals should be made in PD order.
Life is unfair at times. Best get used to it. :)
Life is unfair at times. Best get used to it --> Hi Spec, I didn't realize you are a philosopher too!
feedmyback
02-17-2012, 03:29 AM
Someone with PD in Jan 2011 just posted on trackitt that they received NVC fee receipt.... Here is the message copied from trackitt "April VB Predictions" thread:
"
My PD is 01/20/2011 (EB2), received immigrant visa processing fee notice fee. Is that means my PD will be current in April Visa bulletin."
Looks like the info is correct as he copy pasted the full content of fee receipt.....
Can I ask what your specific PD is? My brother is also in Sept 2010 and I think he's around the 15th or 20th.
mesan123
02-17-2012, 08:59 AM
If this is correct good thing. For sure most of us will be current in one year at the least or with in few months :) . hoping this post is true...
Someone with PD in Jan 2011 just posted on trackitt that they received NVC fee receipt.... Here is the message copied from trackitt "April VB Predictions" thread:
"
My PD is 01/20/2011 (EB2), received immigrant visa processing fee notice fee. Is that means my PD will be current in April Visa bulletin."
Looks like the info is correct as he copy pasted the full content of fee receipt.....
AT2011
02-17-2012, 09:19 AM
I really hope this is true. My PD is also Jan 20, 2011...
Someone with PD in Jan 2011 just posted on trackitt that they received NVC fee receipt.... Here is the message copied from trackitt "April VB Predictions" thread:
"
My PD is 01/20/2011 (EB2), received immigrant visa processing fee notice fee. Is that means my PD will be current in April Visa bulletin."
Looks like the info is correct as he copy pasted the full content of fee receipt.....
kkruna
02-17-2012, 09:32 AM
Is it that they are getting ready for eventuality wherein USCIS does not process enough GC, and the CP covers the gap? In that case, the dates should jump in June Visa Bulletin to allow 3 months for CP. The ensuing rush of files at USCIS would then simply be filed away but there would still be workload for EAD.
USCIS already has enough inventory so moving dates in April and May VB does not help except for, as I said, making available more 'low hanging fruits'.
I really hope this is true. My PD is also Jan 20, 2011...
mesan123
02-17-2012, 09:38 AM
Actually the dates may move in April and May bulletion too...As if CP cases need 3 months to process...and Jan 2011 date is almost 9 months away from current cutoff date.. but what ever the reason....once a person gets NVC reciept, his date should be current with in one year...GURU's can correct me if my assumption is wrong..
There is going to be moments in next months...when that is , i dont know....but i am assuming they should move early, if not there will be much inventory available as all the cases( who already applied) will ripe in 3 months for sure....
GURU"S can you let us know what your take is on this reciept...i meant by this reciept dates when do you think the dates could be current..
Is it that they are getting ready for eventuality wherein USCIS does not process enough GC, and the CP covers the gap? In that case, the dates should jump in June Visa Bulletin to allow 3 months for CP. The ensuing rush of files at USCIS would then simply be filed away but there would still be workload for EAD.
USCIS already has enough inventory so moving dates in April and May VB does not help except for, as I said, making available more 'low hanging fruits'.
Spectator
02-17-2012, 09:48 AM
PERM Fact Sheet for FY2012 published today. Contains YTD information for FY2012.
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Factsheet_Jan_2012.pdfJonty,
Thanks for posting.
Compared to the fact sheet for the end of Q1 (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Factsheet_dec_11.pdf) OFLC seem to have processed about the same number of cases in a month (about 4k), as they did in Q1 (12.4k).
It is not a particularly good production rate.
Maybe this is the continuing effect of the PWD gap last year, which didn't get back to normal until recently.
They seem to have spent the time processing Audit cases, since the processing time has reduced a month more than expected and the % has reduced from 33% to 26% (a 20% reduction). That probably also explains the increased % of Denied applications, compared to Q1.
Normal case processing time has increased one month and the % has increased from 50% to 60%.
nishant2200
02-17-2012, 10:02 AM
Mostly correct. Dates need not be current for CP pre processing, but need to be current for and when Consulate schedules interview, which is the time actual PR is granted.
Vested interest: seems like dates gonna be current for my precious 11/8/2007 for a good period of time. Oh God yes please.
Actually the dates may move in April and May bulletion too...As if CP cases need 3 months to process...and Jan 2011 date is almost 9 months away from current cutoff date.. but what ever the reason....once a person gets NVC reciept, his date should be current with in one year...GURU's can correct me if my assumption is wrong..
There is going to be moments in next months...when that is , i dont know....but i am assuming they should move early, if not there will be much inventory available as all the cases( who already applied) will ripe in 3 months for sure....
GURU"S can you let us know what your take is on this reciept...i meant by this reciept dates when do you think the dates could be current..
Kanmani
02-17-2012, 10:25 AM
Mostly correct. Dates need not be current for CP pre processing, but need to be current for and when Consulate schedules interview, which is the time actual PR is granted.
Vested interest: seems like dates gonna be current for my precious 11/8/2007 for a good period of time. Oh God yes please.
Nishant, even in the case of CP, it looks like actual PR is granted when the applicant is inside USA . The Consulate requests DOS for visa number in the first place and then schedules the interview, once the interview is done they stamp the passport with Immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months. Later they send a sealed package ( just like medicals) to the applicant, which in turn must be handed over to the immigration officer at the airport .
Later the GC is sent to the US address within a month.
mesan123
02-17-2012, 10:35 AM
Kanmani & nishanth
When do you think the dates will move....based on NVC reciepts and with your previous experience's..
Nishant, even in the case of CP, it looks like actual PR is granted when the applicant is inside USA . The Consulate requests DOS for visa number in the first place and then schedules the interview, once the interview is done they stamp the passport with Immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months. Later they send a sealed package ( just like medicals) to the applicant, which in turn must be handed over to the immigration officer at the airport .
Later the GC is sent to the US address within a month.
Kanmani
02-17-2012, 10:43 AM
Mesan ,
My personal opinion is dates will move further in a pattern grouping the applicants into batches.
srividya
02-17-2012, 10:51 AM
DOL PERM approval rate is approx 10K PERMs for Quarter, 10% are refiling (porting, change of employer) and Any body guess is 40% are india & china
ROW 5K translates @2 I-485's per PERM max I-485 demand is 10K.
with 1-140 rejection & other reasons another 10% less makes it demand for ROW in ALL PERM cases is 9K/Quarter.
current years trend for ROW demand is 36K ( for EB2 & Eb3), if 2/3 are EB2 row demand is 24K with spillover EB2 gets ~48K to 52K. we continue to expect 24K+ visas for China & India.
EB3 ROW once it moves post-2007, then movement gains momentum above data indicates max 12K to 15K /per year during recession. By next year this time EB3 ROW may experience what EB2 India & China is experiencing now.
Fag not cleared yet for EB3 India, if no change & demand continue like this probably in another 2 years EB2 India & china, EB3 ROW will be current then EB3 india will get benefit. OR NEED SOME LAW CHANGE TO SPILLOVER OR COUNTRY QUOTA OR RECAPTURE..................
rasknorr
02-17-2012, 11:11 AM
My PD is Sep 30 EB2 I
Mine is Sep 2,10. Previously (before the March VB) some said in this thread his PD is some where in Jun, 2010 and he got in NVP notice and the dates are moved till end of Apr, 2010. So, based on that do we expect any forward movement of 5 more months?
Just looking for ways to get current..
mesan123
02-17-2012, 11:17 AM
NVC reciepts doesnot gaurentee being current next month....it can be anytime in next one year......
Mine is Sep 2,10. Previously (before the March VB) some said in this thread his PD is some where in Jun, 2010 and he got in NVP notice and the dates are moved till end of Apr, 2010. So, based on that do we expect any forward movement of 5 more months?
Just looking for ways to get current..
rasknorr
02-17-2012, 11:19 AM
NVC reciepts doesnot gaurentee being current next month....it can be anytime in next one year......
Thanks, that explains me not to too happy :)
regards
srimurthy
02-17-2012, 11:29 AM
I can second Kanmani's views on this. I have family who have come here on GC they got Immigrant visa stamped and the GCs are actually delivered to the US address a month afte they landed here. Also they have to be in US within the 6 months time frame from the date the passports are stamped for Immigrant visa at the CP.
Nishant, even in the case of CP, it looks like actual PR is granted when the applicant is inside USA . The Consulate requests DOS for visa number in the first place and then schedules the interview, once the interview is done they stamp the passport with Immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months. Later they send a sealed package ( just like medicals) to the applicant, which in turn must be handed over to the immigration officer at the airport .
Later the GC is sent to the US address within a month.
gc_usa
02-17-2012, 11:58 AM
I can second Kanmani's views on this. I have family who have come here on GC they got Immigrant visa stamped and the GCs are actually delivered to the US address a month afte they landed here. Also they have to be in US within the 6 months time frame from the date the passports are stamped for Immigrant visa at the CP.
Kanmani is wrong on this one. Visa is allocated when it was stamped in passport. They just don't want to print green card and ship to abroad and can be misused , Even in AOS once you get email that AOS is approved you can get same stamp in passport from nearest office. If what kanmani said is the case then they have to send back people if they were issued visas when date was current and later it retrogress. F4 category and F2A category move back and forth 2-4 years and it can create disaster on ICE to deport or send back thousands of immigrants who got legal visas from consulate.
Bottom line , once AOS or CP is approved , visa is allocated.
mesan123
02-17-2012, 12:06 PM
I agree with Gc_usa on this...my friend also got the visa through CP....he priority date was late 2006...sh got it stamped last year may. what she informed me is it is just the green card will be sent to US address, but her stamping did mention it Permanent resident. She also explained me what GC_USa told.
Kanmani is wrong on this one. Visa is allocated when it was stamped in passport. They just don't want to print green card and ship to abroad and can be misused , Even in AOS once you get email that AOS is approved you can get same stamp in passport from nearest office. If what kanmani said is the case then they have to send back people if they were issued visas when date was current and later it retrogress. F4 category and F2A category move back and forth 2-4 years and it can create disaster on ICE to deport or send back thousands of immigrants who got legal visas from consulate.
Bottom line , once AOS or CP is approved , visa is allocated.
Kanmani
02-17-2012, 12:30 PM
Kanmani is wrong on this one. Visa is allocated when it was stamped in passport. They just don't want to print green card and ship to abroad and can be misused , Even in AOS once you get email that AOS is approved you can get same stamp in passport from nearest office. If what kanmani said is the case then they have to send back people if they were issued visas when date was current and later it retrogress. F4 category and F2A category move back and forth 2-4 years and it can create disaster on ICE to deport or send back thousands of immigrants who got legal visas from consulate.
Bottom line , once AOS or CP is approved , visa is allocated.
gc_usa, you misunderstood my phrase. I said,
Step 1 - Visa number assigned
Step 2 - Interview
Step 3 - Immigrant stamp
Step 4 - GC
Nowhere I said people would be sent back if date retrogresses. Once visa number is assigned there is no room to fear for retrogression. That is the plus point in CP Vs AOS.
Spectator
02-17-2012, 12:32 PM
Kanmani is wrong on this one. Visa is allocated when it was stamped in passport. They just don't want to print green card and ship to abroad and can be misused , Even in AOS once you get email that AOS is approved you can get same stamp in passport from nearest office. If what kanmani said is the case then they have to send back people if they were issued visas when date was current and later it retrogress. F4 category and F2A category move back and forth 2-4 years and it can create disaster on ICE to deport or send back thousands of immigrants who got legal visas from consulate.
Bottom line , once AOS or CP is approved , visa is allocated.Kanmani is correct.
The procedures are different for CP and AOS.
For AOS, the Visa number is requested and allocated against available numbers at the point of approval, so the PD must be Current at that time for an approval to take place and for the number of available Visas to decrease by one.
For CP, the Visa number is requested against available numbers at the time the interview is scheduled. The PD need only be Current at that time and the number of available visas reduces by one.
Even if the dates retrogress between that time and before the interview takes place, the Visa is still available to be allocated if the case is approved at interview.
Upon being granted a Visa at the Consulate, the applicant has 6 months to activate it by presenting themselves as an immigrant at a POE.
In doing so, they become an LPR immediately the immigrant package is processed at the POE and they are admitted into the USA in immigrant status (LPR).
The GC, (I-551) in either case, is only proof of LPR status and a temporary I-551 stamp is placed in the passport of a successful CP applicant at the POE to cover the period until the GC is delivered.
It is no different from being granted an H1B non-immigrant visa at a Consulate. Until you present yourself at a POE and are admitted, you do not hold H1B non-immigrant status.
khushraho
02-17-2012, 12:36 PM
If CP is really good in this time of retrogressions why do attorneys prefer AOS?
Any potential disadvantage for Cp other than that visit to home country?
mesan123
02-17-2012, 12:41 PM
Yeap...i understood it wrongly...thanks for explaining....
gc_usa, you misunderstood my phrase. I said,
Step 1 - Visa number assigned
Step 2 - Interview
Step 3 - Immigrant stamp
Step 4 - GC
Nowhere I said people would be sent back if date retrogresses. Once visa number is assigned there is no room to fear for retrogression. That is the plus point in CP Vs AOS.
suninphx
02-17-2012, 12:56 PM
Can some one tell me whats fees for I485 and I131 for a minor child (need this info for a friend)
Kanmani
02-17-2012, 01:13 PM
The disadvantages are, We can't apply for EAD/AP . When the applicant is already in US , he/she can't go back and forth to get local police clearance, local medical examination etc..
If CP is really good in this time of retrogressions why do attorneys prefer AOS?
Any potential disadvantage for Cp other than that visit to home country?
idiotic
02-17-2012, 01:16 PM
If CP is really good in this time of retrogressions why do attorneys prefer AOS?
Any potential disadvantage for Cp other than that visit to home country?
485+180 days job change rule is not applicable for CP is my understanding. Correct me if I am wrong here.
GCKnowHow
02-17-2012, 01:20 PM
Can some one tell me whats fees for I485 and I131 for a minor child (need this info for a friend)
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=b1ae408b1c4b3210VgnVCM100000b92ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=b1ae408b1c4b3210VgnVCM100000b92ca60a RCRD
Above link has the filing fee info. Under 14 filing with at least one parent $635 , if not $985.
131 if filed with 485 has no fee.
imdeng
02-17-2012, 01:35 PM
I wouldn't want to CP if it involves anything to do with local police. Police clearance in India is a hassle I would much rather live without. Plus somehow a "mailing it" process like 485 appeals to me rather than a face-to-face interview. Less stressful.
The disadvantages are, We can't apply for EAD/AP . When the applicant is already in US , he/she can't go back and forth to get local police clearance, local medical examination etc..
Jonty Rhodes
02-17-2012, 01:41 PM
Another person with a PD in January 2011 has received the NVC notice. His PD is January 14, 2011. Earlier there was a post reporting a person with PD of January 20, 2011 receiving the NVC notice. And we already have Vishnu on this forum getting the NVC notice with a PD of September 30, 2010.
This was on trackitt.
givegreen
My pd is 14th JAN 2011 and I got my NVC last night. Looks like my date will get current in next 2-3 VB bulletins.Just wanted to share positive news for everybody out there waiting to get GREEENED!!!
Things are looking positive or at least I am trying to be optimistic as my PD is 05/20/2011. :)
tatikonda
02-17-2012, 01:45 PM
Kanmani,
Nevertheless, of talent of putting down in words... you rock !
Spec
Thank you for the detailed post.
I am an extensive reader for my whole life time, but lack the talent of putting down in words. Never submitted a single assignment in school days.:)
vishnu
02-17-2012, 01:47 PM
hoping for the best jonty - hoping for the best!
rasknorr
02-17-2012, 02:33 PM
Another person with a PD in January 2011 has received the NVC notice. His PD is January 14, 2011. Earlier there was a post reporting a person with PD of January 20, 2011 receiving the NVC notice. And we already have Vishnu on this forum getting the NVC notice with a PD of September 30, 2010.
This was on trackitt.
givegreen
My pd is 14th JAN 2011 and I got my NVC last night. Looks like my date will get current in next 2-3 VB bulletins.Just wanted to share positive news for everybody out there waiting to get GREEENED!!!
Things are looking positive or at least I am trying to be optimistic as my PD is 05/20/2011. :)
I am pretty much sure this coming VB you will become current. If i understand correctly from the below link
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/02/08/march-2012-visa-bulletin-%E2%80%93-
eb-2-india-and-china-advance-by-four-months-slow-movement-in-eb-3-fb-1-advances-again-moderate-movement-in-fb2a/
OP suggests that there will be a forward movement.. It may not be as big as earlier but still you will be greened soon.. :)
just_curious
02-17-2012, 02:36 PM
I remember someone in Trackitt posted that his friend got NVC notice for FEB 2011 sometime ago... Wonder if anyone has the validity of the statement or if someone else got notice beyond Feb 2011?
kd2008
02-17-2012, 02:51 PM
Please read this trackitt thread:
http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussion-forums/i485-eb/710671165/nvc-invoices-do-they-indicate-the-near-future-vb-movement
It was started in June 2011 and it reports folks from June 2008 getting NVC notices. So it seems there is a general - not specific - trend of sending out NVC bills 7 to 8 months before the actual date movement.
So the PD of Jan 2011 receiving NVC notice is expected to be current in October 2012 or so. Again this is just a conjecture based on past precedent. I hope we don't retrogress or if at all then not by much and resume movement in October 2012.
kd2008
02-17-2012, 02:58 PM
I remember someone in Trackitt posted that his friend got NVC notice for FEB 2011 sometime ago... Wonder if anyone has the validity of the statement or if someone else got notice beyond Feb 2011?
Read here: http://mail.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/885204997/visa-bulletin-march-2012-predictions/page/4
Posted by 1STFEB2011gc (15) 01 Feb 2012
to axsultana:
One of my friend received NVC fee notification and his priority date is feb18th 2011. That means EB2 pd will move to till may 2011 in March bulletin. Guys every one ready with your doc's.
suninphx
02-17-2012, 03:14 PM
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=b1ae408b1c4b3210VgnVCM100000b92ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=b1ae408b1c4b3210VgnVCM100000b92ca60a RCRD
Above link has the filing fee info. Under 14 filing with at least one parent $635 , if not $985.
131 if filed with 485 has no fee.
Thanks!
Apperently my friend's attorney 'gained' this knowledge only after USCIS sent their applications back :( for wrong filing fees. So he wanted to confirm.
fedupwithgc
02-17-2012, 03:45 PM
Analysis given below says retro wont go beyond Nov 2008.
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/02/visa-bulletin-march-2012.html
What do u guys think ?
just_curious
02-17-2012, 04:01 PM
Read here: http://mail.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/885204997/visa-bulletin-march-2012-predictions/page/4
Thanks kd2008!
suninphx
02-17-2012, 05:37 PM
Two of my team mebers have have NVC receipts. Both have Ron as attorney and their PD is 24 Jan 2011 and Mar 2011. Isn't that cool :). Good luck all.
vgraj1
02-17-2012, 05:44 PM
Two of my team mebers have have NVC receipts. Both have Ron as attorney and their PD is 24 Jan 2011 and Mar 2011. Isn't that cool :). Good luck all.
While there are predictions that the PD for EB2I will move back to 2008, why is NVC is issuing receipts for PD March 2011? I like it but don't understand the reasoning behind NVC notices; does it imply that the PD for EB2I will move to April/May 2011 before retrogressing to 2008?
suninphx
02-17-2012, 05:47 PM
While there are predictions that the PD for EB2I will move back to 2008, why is NVC is issuing receipts for PD March 2011? I like it but don't understand the reasoning behind NVC notices unless something is going on behind the scene which we don't know.
Yeah I have no clue on reasoning but having seen the receipts personally, wanted to share the news.
eb2ODer
02-17-2012, 05:49 PM
I was skeptical when I first read about 2011 PD NVC receipts in trackitt.. but info coming from you suninphx has got me thrilled! Even if it means 2011 dates will be touched in about an year thats great!! I can handle the wait as long as there is some clarity on movement...
Two of my team mebers have have NVC receipts. Both have Ron as attorney and their PD is 24 Jan 2011 and Mar 2011. Isn't that cool :). Good luck all.
suninphx
02-17-2012, 05:51 PM
I was skeptical when I first read about 2011 PD in trackitt.. but info coming from you suninphx has got me thrilled! Even if it means 2011 dates will be touched in about an year thats great!! I can handle the wait as long as there is some clarity on movement...
Yeah , these have been good indicators of chance of movement. So lets hope for best.
rasknorr
02-17-2012, 06:05 PM
I was skeptical when I first read about 2011 PD NVC receipts in trackitt.. but info coming from you suninphx has got me thrilled! Even if it means 2011 dates will be touched in about an year thats great!! I can handle the wait as long as there is some clarity on movement...
I totally agree with you. Suninphx is one of the great resource here.. Thanks Suninphx.
mesan123
02-17-2012, 06:21 PM
Do you know them in person suniphx....what is PD for march 2011 person...
Two of my team mebers have have NVC receipts. Both have Ron as attorney and their PD is 24 Jan 2011 and Mar 2011. Isn't that cool :). Good luck all.
suninphx
02-17-2012, 06:27 PM
Do you know them in person suniphx....what is PD for march 2011 person...
Yeah...my team members..I have seen email from Ron with nvc notice attatched personally... exact date for March 2011 I will let you know Tuesday..
mesan123
02-17-2012, 06:43 PM
Thank you...share that with me on tuesday.....What is your take based this...i meant dates moments...any update from your lawyer :)
Yeah...my team members..I have seen email from Ron with nvc notice attatched personally... exact date for March 2011 I will let you know Tuesday..
eb2visa
02-17-2012, 07:39 PM
My attorney sent my GC forms to Phoenix,AZ. Is this one of the location. I thought every one will sent to Texas or Nebraska and they will be distributed from there, is it correct? What all the locations available to send the GC documents?
eb2visa
02-17-2012, 07:42 PM
Is this for new or renewals???
Petitioners filing Form I-485 based on a pending or approved Form I-140, should file their application at the USCIS Phoenix or Dallas Lockbox facility.
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=3faf2c1a6855d010VgnVCM10000048f3d6a1RCR D
eb2visa
02-17-2012, 08:15 PM
Is it depends on the 140's receipt #??
I saw below message in I-131 form, please suggest:
If I797C starts with EAC or SRC, it should go to Dallas
If I797C starts with LIN or WAC, it should go to Phoenix
Is this correct, I am applying first time, mine became current in Feb. Is it applies for renewals or even for the new applications??
My attorney sent my GC forms to Phoenix,AZ. Is this one of the location. I thought every one will sent to Texas or Nebraska and they will be distributed from there, is it correct? What all the locations available to send the GC documents?
feedmyback
02-18-2012, 01:11 AM
Hi eb2visa,
To the best of my knowledge this is how it works....
Any of the I-485 applications will first go to a lock box facility (Ex: Phoenix). From there the documents are scanned and they are sent electronically to the service center where your I-140 was approved from. There are only two service centers that process I-485 applications for whole of USA. They are "Texas" and "Nebraska". So whichever lock box facility your application is sent (depending on your residence address I guess), finally they will reach the appropriate service centers. FYI, here is the meaning of those three letter abbreviations:
"SRC" means Texas Service Center
"LIN" means Nebraska Service Center
"WAC" means California Service Center
"EAC" means Vermont Service Center
Ideally any I-485 application will finally go to "Texas (SRC)" or "Nebrasks (LIN)".
I hope I answered your question. All this information I mentioned above was explained by the Gurus on various occasions. Gurus, please correct me if any of the above information is incorrect or incomplete....
Is it depends on the 140's receipt #??
I saw below message in I-131 form, please suggest:
If I797C starts with EAC or SRC, it should go to Dallas
If I797C starts with LIN or WAC, it should go to Phoenix
Is this correct, I am applying first time, mine became current in Feb. Is it applies for renewals or even for the new applications??
imdeng
02-18-2012, 07:21 AM
For where to send applications, look at page 7 of the I-485 Instructions. The entire document is a useful read before filling the 485 form. Link below:
http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf
Is it depends on the 140's receipt #??
I saw below message in I-131 form, please suggest:
If I797C starts with EAC or SRC, it should go to Dallas
If I797C starts with LIN or WAC, it should go to Phoenix
Is this correct, I am applying first time, mine became current in Feb. Is it applies for renewals or even for the new applications??
khushraho
02-18-2012, 01:34 PM
One question on job change after 6 months on EAD..
Once you resign from your current job or got laid off, how quickly you need to find your next job with out losing your status?
qesehmk
02-18-2012, 01:41 PM
There is no such time period that USCIS talks about. They talk about being out of status and the candidate should leave the country ASAP.
However there are examples where people have stayed back for a year and then found another job.
IMHO - if your H1 stays valid - then perhaps your status stays valid. At least I am not aware of any law that says that you lose your H1 status if you lose the job. You aquire the status through your job but i do not think you lose just by losing the job.
You can certainly lose status if it expires and is not extended OR if the employer cancels the H1B.
So long story short - you have time until your status is valid. I am not sure if just by losing the job you lose the status.
All the best Khushraho.
p.s. - If you are an electrical engineer and willing to work in Tucson Arizona, there is an opening there I know of.
One question on job change after 6 months on EAD..
Once you resign from your current job or got laid off, how quickly you need to find your next job with out losing your status?
khushraho
02-18-2012, 01:52 PM
^^
Well, let me elaborate further..
If someone on h1 got laid off, he needs to find next job very quickly coz the latest pay stubs is mandatory for H1 transfer. If you are out of job for 3-4 months, you can certainly assume that your transfer would be in trouble.
As far as AC21is concerned,there are not this much process. As per my knowledge you just need to inform USCIS about your new job and job profile. No approval per say is not required..
That is where my question was from..
qesehmk
02-18-2012, 02:18 PM
If eligible for AC21, and H1 status is not valid then candidate is already in unlawful status but in a period of authorized stay (Spec explained this 7-8 pages back). As such can look for a job forever unless 485 is revoked.
There is no such requirement for paystubs etc as in H1 trasnfer. Only that they need to inform USCIS.
p.s. - As suninphx mentioned below EAD is still required to work. But you don't accrue unlawful presence while on AOS.
^^
Well, let me elaborate further..
If someone on h1 got laid off, he needs to find next job very quickly coz the latest pay stubs is mandatory for H1 transfer. If you are out of job for 3-4 months, you can certainly assume that your transfer would be in trouble.
As far as AC21is concerned,there are not this much process. As per my knowledge you just need to inform USCIS about your new job and job profile. No approval per say is not required..
That is where my question was from..
Kanmani
02-18-2012, 02:44 PM
Whenever the job described in the H1b is lost, the H1b beneficiary immediately loses his/her status. If there is a gap between the date of last paycheck and RD of H1b transfer application , then the USCIS would approve only the H1b petition but deny the status extension. ( H1b approval notice without I-94 at the bottom)
To reinstate the valid H1b status , the incumbent must travel out of usa and get a valid I-94 Card.
The above is true for H1b applicants without I-485 pending. I am not sure about the scenario after I-485 .
suninphx
02-18-2012, 02:58 PM
Whenever the job described in the H1b is lost, the H1b beneficiary immediately loses his/her status. If there is a gap between the date of last paycheck and RD of H1b transfer application , then the USCIS would approve only the H1b petition but deny the status extension. ( H1b approval notice without I-94 at the bottom)
To reinstate the valid H1b status , the incumbent must travel out of usa and get a valid I-94 Card.
The above is true for H1b applicants without I-485 pending. I am not sure about the scenario after I-485 .
One need to move on EAD in order to continue working if H1 status is lost because of either losing job or not getting paid on h1.
tometukuri
02-18-2012, 05:22 PM
Just wanted to share some good news! Both me and my wife have recieved our CPO mails for I-485. Finally! Thanks to every member of the forum...esp Q, The Big 4 and The Top 10. I have been a deligent follower of the forum and have personally learnt a lot over the past year.
khushraho
02-18-2012, 05:30 PM
Thanks for the responses..
In short, if one is eligible for AC 21, there is no need for panicking if he/she looses his job...correct?
gcoracle
02-18-2012, 09:34 PM
Received I485 CPO emails for self and spouse today. My background: Work for a fortune 10 company, MS (Australia), unique name (pretty sure there will be none with my first and last name), changed H1 only once and been with the same employer for 6 years
makmohan
02-18-2012, 10:07 PM
Friends, if the last inventory data shows such a low number of filings in Q4 of 2007 as well current low 485 demand from ROW, what are the new estimated for PD to receive GCs in year 2012 (till october)? Is it still till March 2008 or mid-april 2008?
TIA
- Makmohan
mesan123
02-18-2012, 10:20 PM
Congratulations .. ...enjoy the freedom :)
Received I485 CPO emails for self and spouse today. My background: Work for a fortune 10 company, MS (Australia), unique name (pretty sure there will be none with my first and last name), changed H1 only once and been with the same employer for 6 years
qesehmk
02-18-2012, 10:50 PM
Congratulations TT and gcoracle! All the best for future!
Just wanted to share some good news! Both me and my wife have recieved our CPO mails for I-485. Finally! Thanks to every member of the forum...esp Q, The Big 4 and The Top 10. I have been a deligent follower of the forum and have personally learnt a lot over the past year.
Received I485 CPO emails for self and spouse today. My background: Work for a fortune 10 company, MS (Australia), unique name (pretty sure there will be none with my first and last name), changed H1 only once and been with the same employer for 6 years
Reader
02-19-2012, 04:53 PM
Friends, I have received my CPO email for me yesterday, but there is no update for my wife. In our case, USCIS web site did not recognize all the receipt numbers until they are approved. The EAD / AP receipt numbers were not recognized until they were approved, my 485 receipt number was recognized yesterday after approval and my wife's 485 receipt is still not recognized. So, I do not know the real status of my wife's case.
If primary is approved and the dependent is pending, does it mean that there is an RFE on that case or could it be just a time delay?
qesehmk
02-19-2012, 07:12 PM
Congratulations. Almost certainly the dependent approval should come within a couple of days unless you filed the dependent later than your own.
Friends, I have received my CPO email for me yesterday, but there is no update for my wife. In our case, USCIS web site did not recognize all the receipt numbers until they are approved. The EAD / AP receipt numbers were not recognized until they were approved, my 485 receipt number was recognized yesterday after approval and my wife's 485 receipt is still not recognized. So, I do not know the real status of my wife's case.
If primary is approved and the dependent is pending, does it mean that there is an RFE on that case or could it be just a time delay?
rasknorr
02-20-2012, 12:07 PM
Received I485 CPO emails for self and spouse today. My background: Work for a fortune 10 company, MS (Australia), unique name (pretty sure there will be none with my first and last name), changed H1 only once and been with the same employer for 6 years
Congratulations!!!
Reader
02-20-2012, 12:44 PM
Can someone please help me with my question... My 485 was approved few days ago and my wife's 485 is still pending. Therefore she does not have her H4 status anymore. I know that she can stay legally waiting for a decision on AOS, but my question is what happens if her AOS is denied. If a decision is made in May 2012, will the days she has stayed in US in March and April waiting for the decision be counted as unlawful presence?
Transformer
02-20-2012, 01:01 PM
but my question is what happens if her AOS is denied.
Though primary and dependent 485 is approved together most of the time, it's not uncommon to approve them seperate with few weeks delay. When the primary is approved the dependent will be approved unless there are obvious issues like out of status fr more than 180 days or criminal record. If you don't think of those issues then there is no reason to be panic. Be cool and you will get it.
GC-Utopic
02-20-2012, 01:05 PM
From my understanding of reading the USCIS memos,
It depends,
Scenario 1 - If you are in Lawful status at the time of properly filed I485, even if its get rejected you would not accrue any unlawful presence.
Scenario 2- If you do not have status ( even if your status expires 3 days before applying) when applying the I 485, if it gets rejected eventually, you would accrue unlawful presence of 3 days + AOS time..
So, the key is having a lawful status when you apply, if you have one, no need to worry about AOS time even if it gets rejected eventually.
Hope it makes sense, others more knowledgeble than me can chime in.
Can someone please help me with my question... My 485 was approved few days ago and my wife's 485 is still pending. Therefore she does not have her H4 status anymore. I know that she can stay legally waiting for a decision on AOS, but my question is what happens if her AOS is denied. If a decision is made in May 2012, will the days she has stayed in US in March and April waiting for the decision be counted as unlawful presence?
Jonty Rhodes
02-20-2012, 10:22 PM
April Visa Bulletin Prediction on CM's blog. Any comments???
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/02/april-2012-visa-bulletin-predictions-eb.html
nrmmrn
02-21-2012, 10:01 AM
only prediction I can make is, if his best case scenario for EB2I comes true, then I will be filing for EAD/485 in April!!
April Visa Bulletin Prediction on CM's blog. Any comments???
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/02/april-2012-visa-bulletin-predictions-eb.html
qesehmk
02-21-2012, 10:10 AM
For EB2IC I think I would agree with the forecast. But honestly I feel also fooled by CO since I never thought there would such kind of sustained continuous forward movement.
It is counterintuitive since it required two things we didn't assume : 1) Quarterly spillover 2) Slower than usual Pace of USCIS approvals.
As long as those 2 things are in still place - we will continue to see forward movement. The chances of #2 being in place is what is difficult and hence the date advance should come to a halt and even retro. Whether it happens this month or next is really secondary.
April Visa Bulletin Prediction on CM's blog. Any comments???
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/02/april-2012-visa-bulletin-predictions-eb.html
vizcard
02-21-2012, 10:12 AM
April Visa Bulletin Prediction on CM's blog. Any comments???
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/02/april-2012-visa-bulletin-predictions-eb.html
All I can say is, he said a lot but said nothing.
Most analysis point to a stall in movement. If there is movement there is no reason to expect any particular time frame. It could be 1 month or 3 or 6. We are already way past the "building pipeline" stage.
See, I did the same thing as the CM blog. Said nothing in my whole paragraph :)
vishnu
02-21-2012, 10:18 AM
ha ha ha - hilarious yet true! kudos to vizcard for summarizing in 2 lines as opposed to 20 on CM Blog
kd2008
02-21-2012, 10:26 AM
For EB2IC I think I would agree with the forecast. But honestly I feel also fooled by CO since I never thought there would such kind of sustained continuous forward movement.
It is counterintuitive since it required two things we didn't assume : 1) Quarterly spillover 2) Slower than usual Pace of USCIS approvals.
As long as those 2 things are in still place - we will continue to see forward movement. The chances of #2 being in place is what is difficult and hence the date advance should come to a halt and even retro. Whether it happens this month or next is really secondary.
Another thing to keep in mind is that when the demand from EB2IC is so low, visas will continue to be handed out in the order of processing without regard to country quotas. We saw this in happen before this bulletin: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_2007.html
This bulletin was the first of its kind to explain the setting of cuttoff dates after they had been current for a while.
Changes in CIS processing procedures during the past two years created a significant backlog of cases and a consequent reduction in demand for numbers.
During the time that the Employment-based categories have remained “Current” many tens of thousands of applicants have become eligible to file for adjustment of status. Last summer, CIS notified Congress of its intent to eliminate its current backlogs by the end of FY-2006. As a result of the CIS backlog reduction effort, we are now experiencing very heavy visa demand as CIS has begun to process cases to conclusion. Section 201(a)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act states that not more than 27 percent of the Employment-based annual limit may be used in each of the first three quarters of a fiscal year. Based on the current rate of demand, the 27 percent level for the first quarter of FY-2005 will be exceeded by the end of December.
It has therefore become necessary to impose an Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for January in order to limit number use during the second quarter. Many of the cases have priority dates that are several years old, and the cut-off date represents the first priority date that cannot be accommodated for final processing. The cut-off date will apply only to the following chargeability areas: China-mainland born, India, and Philippines. Cut-off date movement during the remainder of FY-2005 depends on the extent of future visa demand. No specific predictions are possible at this time.
The hard truth is USCIS will have to improve its processing speed considerably to consume all of the quarterly spillover. This is highly unlikely. My personal opinion is we won't see any retrogression until July bulletin. Will the dates stall in coming bulletins? It is not a very relevant item simply because the chances of the cases filed in coming months being adjudicated are really small. We will see Oct-Nov-Dec filers' cases being processed for quite a while in future.
Mavrick
02-21-2012, 10:28 AM
NVC reciepts doesnot gaurentee being current next month....it can be anytime in next one year......
Experts, the one year time frame that Mesan said is applicable or not?..Can it take take greater than one year or should the dates have to move within one year?
mesan123
02-21-2012, 10:29 AM
but why are people getting NVC reciepts(like from Jan 2011 & Mar 2011 folks also). what i meant is incase USCIS picks up on cases and demand is shown...how would CO move the dates to MArch 2011.....because with best scenario the people getting GC will be from early 2009( very best scenario).
my point is will not the NVC reciepts be voided in one year???will that happen?
For EB2IC I think I would agree with the forecast. But honestly I feel also fooled by CO since I never thought there would such kind of sustained continuous forward movement.
It is counterintuitive since it required two things we didn't assume : 1) Quarterly spillover 2) Slower than usual Pace of USCIS approvals.
As long as those 2 things are in still place - we will continue to see forward movement. The chances of #2 being in place is what is difficult and hence the date advance should come to a halt and even retro. Whether it happens this month or next is really secondary.
Spectator
02-21-2012, 10:30 AM
For EB2IC I think I would agree with the forecast. But honestly I feel also fooled by CO since I never thought there would such kind of sustained continuous forward movement.
It is counterintuitive since it required two things we didn't assume : 1) Quarterly spillover 2) Slower than usual Pace of USCIS approvals.
As long as those 2 things are in still place - we will continue to see forward movement. The chances of #2 being in place is what is difficult and hence the date advance should come to a halt and even retro. Whether it happens this month or next is really secondary.Q,
Nice to see a post from you. I realize you have been extremely busy lately.
I totally agree with you.
USCIS have shown that they can approval relatively large numbers recently. They didn't really have the opportunity to show that until now and approvals in a 3-4 month timescale is pretty good (amazing by USCIS standards).
In fact, if USCIS approve too many, too fast, they will likely outstrip the number of spillover visas available in a quarter. That would force CO to retrogress the Cut Off Dates.
Since April is the beginning of a new quarter, that seems unlikely for the April VB, but I won't be surprised if it happens in May, assuming USCIS continue at their recent pace.
Transformer
02-21-2012, 10:44 AM
Experts, the one year time frame that Mesan said is applicable or not?..Can it take take greater than one year or should the dates have to move within one year?
One year is just an expectation and not guaranteed.
NVC notice expires in 1 year but if you paid the fee it never expires. So don't be surprised if someone with July 2011 recieves a NVC notice now but his dates are not current in next 2 years.
vgraj1
02-21-2012, 10:56 AM
One year is just an expectation and not guaranteed.
NVC notice expires in 1 year but if you paid the fee it never expires. So don't be surprised if someone with July 2011 recieves a NVC notice now but his dates are not current in next 2 years.
What is the purpose of NVC issuing a notice if the dates are going to be current after two years or later?
qesehmk
02-21-2012, 11:06 AM
if demand picks up then CO will be forced to slow down or retro because otherwise it creates the potential to not process visas in strict order of PD. Not that that is against any law that I know .... but that is a norm USCIS and DOS have followed.
As per why people are getting NVC notices .. I do not know. May be that's an indication that demand will not pick up and dates will continue to move forward.
Honestly none of us know EXACTLY what will happen. All we attempt to do is be as rational as possible with the information we have.
but why are people getting NVC reciepts(like from Jan 2011 & Mar 2011 folks also). what i meant is incase USCIS picks up on cases and demand is shown...how would CO move the dates to MArch 2011.....because with best scenario the people getting GC will be from early 2009( very best scenario).
my point is will not the NVC reciepts be voided in one year???will that happen?
Q,
Nice to see a post from you. I realize you have been extremely busy lately.
I totally agree with you.
USCIS have shown that they can approval relatively large numbers recently. They didn't really have the opportunity to show that until now and approvals in a 3-4 month timescale is pretty good (amazing by USCIS standards).
In fact, if USCIS approve too many, too fast, they will likely outstrip the number of spillover visas available in a quarter. That would force CO to retrogress the Cut Off Dates.
Since April is the beginning of a new quarter, that seems unlikely for the April VB, but I won't be surprised if it happens in May, assuming USCIS continue at their recent pace.
Spec .... yes if they approve too many too fast then that will outstrip quarterly supply. (p.s. Although I said quarterly spillover -I strongly suspect that CO is doing almosta monthly spillover).
03May07
02-21-2012, 11:21 AM
Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!
Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.
After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work ;)
Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. :) (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)
Spectator
02-21-2012, 11:45 AM
Spec .... yes if they approve too many too fast then that will outstrip quarterly supply. (p.s. Although I said quarterly spillover -I strongly suspect that CO is doing almost a monthly spillover).Q,
I wasn't vey clear. I agree it is split into monthly allotments, per the description in the VO explanation.
I guess I was saying that CO might let it ride another month to ensure the USCIS production increase was sustainable through a relatively higher density period. Otherwise, he will have to consider doing something in the April VB itself.
Once he does stop forward movement, or retrogresses the dates, the chance of Cut Off Dates moving beyond the latest date reached so far, is zero for FY2012 because qualified demand becoming available will make that impossible.
gc_usa
02-21-2012, 11:45 AM
if demand picks up then CO will be forced to slow down or retro because otherwise it creates the potential to not process visas in strict order of PD. Not that that is against any law that I know .... but that is a norm USCIS and DOS have followed.
As per why people are getting NVC notices .. I do not know. May be that's an indication that demand will not pick up and dates will continue to move forward.
Honestly none of us know EXACTLY what will happen. All we attempt to do is be as rational as possible with the information we have.
Spec .... yes if they approve too many too fast then that will outstrip quarterly supply. (p.s. Although I said quarterly spillover -I strongly suspect that CO is doing almosta monthly spillover).
My guess
USCIS will not be able to clear many app , we may have 30k spill over and they will not process that many EB2 IC application by Sep 2012 so DOS will allow NVC to process CP cases by making date current to EB2 IC. Now what if EB2 IC cp demand is not enough to consume spill over visas , it will go to EB3. Key thing to watch is not date movement but USCIS processing times. For DEC 2011 filers as of now its Sep 24th 2012 when they can eligible to open SR Jan 2012 filers won't be able to even open SR for TSC. I will not be surprised if NSC will do same soon.
Processing time will be key for future date movement till end of the year 2012 ( Sep 2012 )
imdeng
02-21-2012, 11:45 AM
NVC receipts are very intriguing in the current setup. DOS had really absolutely no reason to send NVC fee notices to people in 2011 PD. In normal situation there is no way that they are likely to get a GC until FY2014. However, now that the fee notices have actually been sent, we must entertain the possibility that it is NOT a normal situation as far as DOS can see. It is possible that they are looking at USCIS processing rates and thinking that there is no way that USCIS will be able to process say 35K EB2IC visas they expect (hypothetically) to be available in FY2012. So they have decided to process as many CP cases as possible to help USCIS in not wasting any visas. Trouble is that as Spec's post a couple pages before showed, CP now makes a very tiny fraction of EB2IC - so they have to travel really far PD wise to get sufficient CP cases to bridge any shortfall USCIS may run into. The fee notices show the extent to which they are going to go.
So, my entirely non-analytical, gut-based prediction for April VB: EB2IC PD will NOT stall. It will continue to move in batches in every VB until either the PD catches up with NVC receipts or USCIS catches up with expected spillover numbers. USCIS is likely to catch up when they process a good bit of Jan filers - so until that happens - I would expect PD to keep moving in small batches.
imdeng
02-21-2012, 11:49 AM
Congratulations! 15 years of living in a country without any (or much) legal rights - you did great to survive this long without EAD - now take a couple days off and enjoy the fruits of your patience and labor.
Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!
Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.
After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work ;)
Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. :) (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)
fedupwithgc
02-21-2012, 11:53 AM
Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!
Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.
After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work ;)
Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. :) (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)
Congratulations buddy !!!.... you deserve to celebrate..
imdeng
02-21-2012, 11:54 AM
I think DOS is concerned about USCIS's processing speed as well - however - there are 7 more months in this FY - more than enough time for USCIS to take a good bite out of Jan filers. Especially considering so many of Nov and Dec filers have been issued GC already (refer to Spec's trackitt analysis).
My guess
USCIS will not be able to clear many app , we may have 30k spill over and they will not process that many EB2 IC application by Sep 2012 so DOS will allow NVC to process CP cases by making date current to EB2 IC. Now what if EB2 IC cp demand is not enough to consume spill over visas , it will go to EB3. Key thing to watch is not date movement but USCIS processing times. For DEC 2011 filers as of now its Sep 24th 2012 when they can eligible to open SR Jan 2012 filers won't be able to even open SR for TSC. I will not be surprised if NSC will do same soon.
Processing time will be key for future date movement till end of the year 2012 ( Sep 2012 )
just_curious
02-21-2012, 11:55 AM
So, my entirely non-analytical, gut-based prediction for April VB: EB2IC PD will NOT stall. It will continue to move in batches in every VB until either the PD catches up with NVC receipts or USCIS catches up with expected spillover numbers. USCIS is likely to catch up when they process a good bit of Jan filers - so until that happens - I would expect PD to keep moving in small batches.
I would agree with imdeng on this analysis... The upcoming demand data will also be one of the key thing for us
zenmaster
02-21-2012, 11:57 AM
Many Congratulations 03May07 !!!
Thats a long time in US !
All the very best for your future :)
Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!
Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.
After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work ;)
Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. :) (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)
Transformer
02-21-2012, 12:02 PM
What is the purpose of NVC issuing a notice if the dates are going to be current after two years or later?
One of the goals of DOS is not to waste any visas. They rely heavily on USCIS to adjudicate enough applications. If USCIS doesn't process enough applications then PLAN B for DOS is to issue enough CP visas which are entirely in DOS control.
Based on the current trend if DOS thinks that USCIS is not asking for enough VISAS then they can issue NVC receipts for applicatns with later PD dates. In the last quarter or last few months if DOS doesn't see enough demand from USCIS, they can move the dates further or make current and grant CP visas. Remember, to issue GC thru CP, the dates have to be current.
Think of other scenario, where DOS issue the NVC notice (let's say July 2011) and by last quarter USCIS process enough applications with PD in 2008 and 2009, then DOS don't have to move the dates into 2011 to grant GC for CP. If USCIS process enough applications with PD in 2010 after few more months and there are let's say 50K pre adjudicated applications then DOS will not move the dates and July 2011 will not be current for 2 yrs.
I am just trying to explain how the process works and it is very unusual that dates waon't move (within 1 year) after NVC fee notice. Only happens if DOS is completely wrong with USCIS processing estimates. But it is possible.
just_curious
02-21-2012, 12:09 PM
Yeah I have no clue on reasoning but having seen the receipts personally, wanted to share the news.
thats a very good news... May be a lame question for you.. Did they opt for CP in their 140?
piratla
02-21-2012, 12:15 PM
thats a very good news... May be a lame question for you.. Did they opt for CP in their 140?
I believe NVC receipts are only meant for CP. So, to answer your question, YES. They must have opted for CP in their I-140.
venkat
02-21-2012, 12:15 PM
Hello Gurus...Please go through the below question and let me what you think.
Beginning in the month of December people would have started applying for 485 whose Priority Dates fall between Nov 1st 2007 to March 14th 2008. Similarly,
Beginning in the month of January people would have started applying for 485 whose Priority Dates fall between March 15th to December 31st 2008.
As we know, we have already started seeing lot of 485 approvals for people who applied in December (ranging from November all the way to March). Say next month (i.e March) we start seeing approvals for people who filed in January. Again the approvals may be random i.e some whose PD is in April 2008 and others whose PD is in December 2008.
Say after couple of months dates retrogress to July 2008. What would happen to those people whose 485s were approved who fell in the August to December time-frame. Does that mean that they are lucky?
OR
Does DOS give USCIS an internal Priority Date and will ask them to approve only applicants before that date?
vgraj1
02-21-2012, 12:24 PM
One of the goals of DOS is not to waste any visas. They rely heavily on USCIS to adjudicate enough applications. If USCIS doesn't process enough applications then PLAN B for DOS is to issue enough CP visas which are entirely in DOS control.
Based on the current trend if DOS thinks that USCIS is not asking for enough VISAS then they can issue NVC receipts for applicatns with later PD dates. In the last quarter or last few months if DOS doesn't see enough demand from USCIS, they can move the dates further or make current and grant CP visas. Remember, to issue GC thru CP, the dates have to be current.
Think of other scenario, where DOS issue the NVC notice (let's say July 2011) and by last quarter USCIS process enough applications with PD in 2008 and 2009, then DOS don't have to move the dates into 2011 to grant GC for CP. If USCIS process enough applications with PD in 2010 after few more months and there are let's say 50K pre adjudicated applications then DOS will not move the dates and July 2011 will not be current for 2 yrs.
I am just trying to explain how the process works and it is very unusual that dates waon't move (within 1 year) after NVC fee notice. Only happens if DOS is completely wrong with USCIS processing estimates. But it is possible.
Thanks for the explanation. I think DOS is moving dates cautiously this time unlike the July 2007 fiasco. So, we can assume that DOS is not completely wrong this time. I guess there is some insider information between DOS, NVC and USCIS which we are not aware of. No doubt we are in an unusual situation here where the PD for EB2I has moved so fast in few bulletins. My EB2I PD is 04/11 and few months back I forgot that there is something called EAD/GC since I felt it is going to take a very long time to get to the EAD stage. But last few bulletins have really been exciting! However, if the dates do move back to 2008, I will again forget that there is something called EAD/GC!
suninphx
02-21-2012, 12:27 PM
thats a very good news... May be a lame question for you.. Did they opt for CP in their 140?
Yes..looks like it's a practice at their attorny's office
mysati
02-21-2012, 12:29 PM
Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!
Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.
After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work ;)
Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. :) (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)
Congratulations! That's really a long wait...
imdeng
02-21-2012, 12:35 PM
Yes. And/Or Smart enough to have a no-problem, easily-approvable, low-hanging-fruit application that could be approved in 3 months by USCIS.
Say after couple of months dates retrogress to July 2008. What would happen to those people whose 485s were approved who fell in the August to December time-frame. Does that mean that they are lucky?
just_curious
02-21-2012, 12:37 PM
Yes..looks like it's a practice at their attorny's office
thank you Suninphx and Piratla!!
kkruna
02-21-2012, 12:38 PM
I have a feeling that they are looking at data which is very different from what we reckon in terms of demand. When we cannot understand a situation, we either have different perspective or we are missing a link somewhere. A small movement in Trackitt ratio can change the numbers substantially. We have based it on historical average but proportion of population entering their data on Trackitt depends on so many aspects.
As for USCIS "slow speed", the only way to compensate it through CP would be to really stretch the dates to the extent of making it current. For last resort, EB3 is there with ready processed cases to pickup any shortfall if even CP does not help sufficiently.
mysati
02-21-2012, 12:41 PM
I have a basic question. I think we are all thinking here from the perspective of EB2-I/C in trying to understand why they are issuing NVC notices for PDs in 2011. Assuming USCIS processing takes several months for the recent filers, whether EB2 or any other category, come Aug/Sep 2012 if there are not enough documentarily qualified EB2s on file to issue the visa numbers, wouldn't it automatically spillover to EB3? Even with porting, I am sure that there are enough documentarily qualified EB3s before 2007 who can benefit from the spillover and the visas will definitely not be wasted.
So could there be any other rationale for CO moving the dates (maybe preparing for HR 3012 or anything else that most of us are not privy to)?
mysati
02-21-2012, 12:42 PM
@KKruna,
I guess we had a telepathy here :)
mysati
02-21-2012, 12:47 PM
Hello Gurus...Please go through the below question and let me what you think.
Beginning in the month of December people would have started applying for 485 whose Priority Dates fall between Nov 1st 2007 to March 14th 2008. Similarly,
Beginning in the month of January people would have started applying for 485 whose Priority Dates fall between March 15th to December 31st 2008.
As we know, we have already started seeing lot of 485 approvals for people who applied in December (ranging from November all the way to March). Say next month (i.e March) we start seeing approvals for people who filed in January. Again the approvals may be random i.e some whose PD is in April 2008 and others whose PD is in December 2008.
Say after couple of months dates retrogress to July 2008. What would happen to those people whose 485s were approved who fell in the August to December time-frame. Does that mean that they are lucky?OR
Does DOS give USCIS an internal Priority Date and will ask them to approve only applicants before that date?
Yes, some people are lucky. I personally know a co-worker of mine (EB2-I) getting approved during the 2007 fiasco. Her PD was May 2006. But if I look back at her case now, it was a low hanging fruit. So maybe...
ThatIsAll
02-21-2012, 01:23 PM
Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!
Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.
Congrats! It's a big partttayy time! I know 14 yrs is tough to stay afloat....see thru 2 recessions, dot com bust then the recent finance meltdown. Glad you could get through those RFEs. The amount of documents we accumulate over the years is crazy. I'm close behind you.. 11yrs of wait :-)
imdeng
02-21-2012, 01:41 PM
My opinions on the questions:
- HR3012: No effect on PD. They have no reason to take in to account something that is not the extant law.
- Spillover to EB3: IF there are no enough documentarily qualified EB2 in Sept 2012 then yes - but that is a big IF - very big - and in my opinion it is extremely unlikely. 8 months for Jan filers and 7 months for Feb filers is enough time for USCIS to process enough cases to meet the spillover numbers.
I have a basic question. I think we are all thinking here from the perspective of EB2-I/C in trying to understand why they are issuing NVC notices for PDs in 2011. Assuming USCIS processing takes several months for the recent filers, whether EB2 or any other category, come Aug/Sep 2012 if there are not enough documentarily qualified EB2s on file to issue the visa numbers, wouldn't it automatically spillover to EB3? Even with porting, I am sure that there are enough documentarily qualified EB3s before 2007 who can benefit from the spillover and the visas will definitely not be wasted.
So could there be any other rationale for CO moving the dates (maybe preparing for HR 3012 or anything else that most of us are not privy to)?
qesehmk
02-21-2012, 02:36 PM
3M many congratulations. You have a lot of patience and grace. Sometimes a few of us complain at 3-4-5 years wait time. 14 years is a lifetime! Good luck and enjoy post GC journey! On your vendor nonpayment situation - I do not know much. But if it's a few thousand or even 10 thousand dollars or less ... let it go. You will probably be happier if you let that chapter go off your life and open a new chapter where you let you mind become free and fearless. Sorry if I come across as preaching you. That's not the intention.
Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!
Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.
After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work ;)
Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. :) (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)
nishant2200
02-21-2012, 02:40 PM
USCIS processing times updated.
check it out.
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do
NSC: I-485 for EB based is still 4 months. I-140 is still 4 months. (and that is after the barrage of new incoming from EB2IC, still holding onto 4 months, good good very good!)
TSC: I-485 for EB based at April 3, 2011. Does not mean they will take as long, but creates problem in inquiring about status and SR as you won't hit the processing time and be waiting and curious to see what's going on, but they will tell you, hey we are at April 2011 right now. I-140 is at June 29, 2011.
So bottomline is that NSC is still confidently declaring 4 months and is not afraid of customer service calls for status. While TSC is taking it cautiously.
reachme_s
02-21-2012, 02:40 PM
Does DOS give USCIS an internal Priority Date and will ask them to approve only applicants before that date?
Venkat - When did you get your FP notice?
tackle
02-21-2012, 02:49 PM
USCIS processing times updated.
check it out.
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do
NSC: I-485 for EB based is still 4 months. I-140 is still 4 months. (and that is after the barrage of new incoming from EB2IC, still holding onto 4 months, good good very good!)
TSC: I-485 for EB based at April 3, 2011. Does not mean they will take as long, but creates problem in inquiring about status and SR as you won't hit the processing time and be waiting and curious to see what's going on, but they will tell you, hey we are at April 2011 right now. I-140 is at June 29, 2011.
So bottomline is that NSC is still confidently declaring 4 months and is not afraid of customer service calls for status. While TSC is taking it cautiously.
So, the processing dates for TSC has moved by 1 month in 4-6 months? That's great. Anyone remember what the previous date for TSC was, and when it was last updated?
venkat
02-21-2012, 03:17 PM
On 17th (friday)
Venkat - When did you get your FP notice?
geterdone
02-21-2012, 03:21 PM
Do you think someone with PD beyond May 2008 will get GC this FY? How far will it go?
fedupwithgc
02-21-2012, 03:30 PM
USCIS processing times updated.
check it out.
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do
NSC: I-485 for EB based is still 4 months. I-140 is still 4 months. (and that is after the barrage of new incoming from EB2IC, still holding onto 4 months, good good very good!)
TSC: I-485 for EB based at April 3, 2011. Does not mean they will take as long, but creates problem in inquiring about status and SR as you won't hit the processing time and be waiting and curious to see what's going on, but they will tell you, hey we are at April 2011 right now. I-140 is at June 29, 2011.
So bottomline is that NSC is still confidently declaring 4 months and is not afraid of customer service calls for status. While TSC is taking it cautiously.
Dates posted are as of Dec 31 2011 which is still very good and shows Dec filers can expect GC in 4 months.
sp2008
02-21-2012, 03:45 PM
Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!
Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. :) (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)
03May07,
Hello buddy, enjoy your freedom after looooong wait.
I guess you should start a thread about "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments" while you are active here.
It would be useful for our friends for sure one day.
SP
nishant2200
02-21-2012, 03:56 PM
Do you think someone with PD beyond May 2008 will get GC this FY? How far will it go?
Jan filers may very well get lucky in next month onwards, unless DOS-USCIS publish an internal memo or directive to block visa demand internally at March 15th 2008 prior i.e. till Dec Visa Bulletin only. (I really doubt that such an internal memo would be given out, unless visas start running out in a monthly allocation target or a quarterly allocation higher level target).
What's stopping a Jan filer file from getting approved, if all background checks are done, FP is done, and file gets assigned to an officer otherwise. Ideally the filing should be such that until all the prior files are assigned out, a Jan file would not be assigned out, but I am not sure how much they can enforce such order in a vast number of filings across two service centers.
ps: I have no problems with any PD person getting GC, be it Jan or Feb filer. Just God, give me mine too :)
polapragada
02-21-2012, 06:10 PM
congrats nishant
kd2008
02-21-2012, 06:16 PM
Yay! Congrats Nishant!
From trackitt!
User: nish2200
Nationality: India
Country of Chargeability: India
Applicant Type: primary
Service Center: Nebraska
Category: EB2
Priority Date: 08 Nov 2007
Application Filed: 30 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 01 Dec 2011
USCIS Notice Date: 06 Dec 2011
I-485 Status: approved
I-485 Approval/Denial Date: 21 Feb 2012
Card Production Ordered: 21 Feb 2012
Total Time to Get GC: 83 days
TorreyPines
02-21-2012, 06:19 PM
Just God, give me mine too :)
You asked, I responded. - GOD. ;)
feedmyback
02-21-2012, 06:35 PM
Many Many Congratulations Nishant!!!! Looks like it is a good time to pray to GOD!!! :) God please make me current in April bulletin :)
You asked, I responded. - GOD. ;)
kkruna
02-21-2012, 06:42 PM
Congrats Nishant!!
gcseeker
02-21-2012, 07:02 PM
Yay! Congrats Nishant!
From trackitt!
User: nish2200
Nationality: India
Country of Chargeability: India
Applicant Type: primary
Service Center: Nebraska
Category: EB2
Priority Date: 08 Nov 2007
Application Filed: 30 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 01 Dec 2011
USCIS Notice Date: 06 Dec 2011
I-485 Status: approved
I-485 Approval/Denial Date: 21 Feb 2012
Card Production Ordered: 21 Feb 2012
Total Time to Get GC: 83 days
Awesome news...Nishant bhai bahut bahut badhai ho. Enjoy the day my friend :).
zenmaster
02-21-2012, 07:21 PM
Congratulations Nishant & your family !!!
jalsa karo have :) party hard ;)
nishant2200
02-21-2012, 07:22 PM
thanks gcseeker and friends, I posted in post 485 filing thread this news. we can carry forth the party there :D
Awesome news...Nishant bhai bahut bahut badhai ho. Enjoy the day my friend :).
Congratulations Nishant & your family !!!
jalsa karo have :) party hard ;)
nishant2200
02-21-2012, 07:23 PM
http://www.niwus.com/USCIS_Updates201107.html
Notice, they say they do 140 and 485 sequentially, not in parallel.
This definitely is helping folks like us whose 140 is already approved, and pegging back the ROW behind, I feel. putting here for experts' opinions.
nishant2200
02-21-2012, 07:25 PM
Guys, thanks a lot. Greatly appreciate it.
congrats nishant
Yay! Congrats Nishant!
From trackitt!
User: nish2200
Nationality: India
Country of Chargeability: India
Applicant Type: primary
Service Center: Nebraska
Category: EB2
Priority Date: 08 Nov 2007
Application Filed: 30 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 01 Dec 2011
USCIS Notice Date: 06 Dec 2011
I-485 Status: approved
I-485 Approval/Denial Date: 21 Feb 2012
Card Production Ordered: 21 Feb 2012
Total Time to Get GC: 83 days
You asked, I responded. - GOD. ;)
Many Many Congratulations Nishant!!!! Looks like it is a good time to pray to GOD!!! :) God please make me current in April bulletin :)
Congrats Nishant!!
Spectator
02-21-2012, 07:34 PM
thanks gcseeker and friends, I posted in post 485 filing thread this news. we can carry forth the party there :Dnishant,
Congratulations, you sly old dog!!
nishant2200
02-21-2012, 07:41 PM
nishant,
Congratulations, you sly old dog!!
:D
Thou art Supreme sir!
I accept your wishes with the most gracious heartfelt thanks.
ChampU
02-21-2012, 09:52 PM
congrats Nishant!
shaumack
02-21-2012, 09:56 PM
:D
Thou art Supreme sir!
I accept your wishes with the most gracious heartfelt thanks.
Congrats Nishant!!! Cheers.
TeddyKoochu
02-21-2012, 11:06 PM
Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!
Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.
After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work ;)
Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. :) (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)
Yay! Congrats Nishant!
From trackitt!
User: nish2200
Nationality: India
Country of Chargeability: India
Applicant Type: primary
Service Center: Nebraska
Category: EB2
Priority Date: 08 Nov 2007
Application Filed: 30 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 01 Dec 2011
USCIS Notice Date: 06 Dec 2011
I-485 Status: approved
I-485 Approval/Denial Date: 21 Feb 2012
Card Production Ordered: 21 Feb 2012
Total Time to Get GC: 83 days
03May07 & Nishant many congratulations to both of you and your families once again. Enioy this moment to the fullest.
krishnav
02-22-2012, 01:16 AM
Congrats Nishant!!
Jonty Rhodes
02-22-2012, 08:30 AM
Congrats Guru Nishant. Enjoy the freedom to the fullest.
imdeng
02-22-2012, 09:11 AM
Congratulations Nishant! All the gurus are slowly but surely getting through... please do keep coming back and help folks like you have been doing for so long.
just_curious
02-22-2012, 09:14 AM
Congrats, Nishanth! Please continue to share your knowledge here..
pdfeb09
02-22-2012, 09:36 AM
Congrats Nishant Bhai .. !! party time ... !! :)
Prabhas
02-22-2012, 10:35 AM
Congrats Nishant!!!! Enjoy the freedom.:D
gkjppp
02-22-2012, 11:45 AM
congrats nishant.
gkjppp
02-22-2012, 11:47 AM
TEDDY , where is yours???
TeddyKoochu
02-22-2012, 11:52 AM
TEDDY , where is yours???
Thanks, attorney still working on RFE response; these are a group of super slow people they acknowledged only today after couple of emails and voice messages. Hopefully my response will go out this week.
gkjppp
02-22-2012, 12:09 PM
Thanks, attorney still working on RFE response; these are a group of super slow people they acknowledged only today after couple of emails and voice messages. Hopefully my response will go out this week.
Teddy, RFE on what? shall we know?
nyquant
02-22-2012, 12:27 PM
Thanks Q and gc_usa.
just_curious
02-22-2012, 01:50 PM
Where is sportsfan....? His inside information was always helpful!!!!
codesmith
02-22-2012, 02:05 PM
Hi Nishanth,
Congratulations !!
Just wondering if you receive EAD or directly GC ?
Any ways..it's time to have fun..
sandeep11
02-22-2012, 02:18 PM
Just got the CPO Mails!!!!!!!!!!
Hi Y'all:
Its my time to share some good news:
Just got my CPO mails. I can't express my happiness. From the bottom of my heart I Wish Good Luck to everyone out there waiting for the 485 approval.
Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, Kanmani, Nishant, Champu, and the rest, thanks for your hardwork and inputs. You should keep up the good work.This forum has been exceptional and is an example of how like minded people with good thoughts can gel together with no issues. I was following this forum for a while now and there was never a day i guess that I didn't check it. My Heartful Thanks to Each One of You!!!!!
I will be around and help anyone with questions to the extent of my knowledge.
Below are my details:
SC:NSC|RD:12/2/2011|ND: 12/5/2011|FP ND:1/6/2012|FP RD:1/10/2012|FP Done:1/13/2012(Early-Walk-In Actual SD 2/2/2012)|EAD/AP:1/18/2012|485 CPO:2/22/2012
MS in USA
Changed Employers 2 times
Have been with the same employer for PERM/140/485
Issue free immigration history
On H1 for 8 Yrs
Thanks,
Sandy.
ismile
02-22-2012, 02:28 PM
Congratulations Sandeep !!!!
mesan123
02-22-2012, 02:30 PM
CONGRATULATIONS Sandeep...enjoy the day...by the way what is your priority date
Just got the CPO Mails!!!!!!!!!!
Hi Y'all:
Its my time to share some good news:
Just got my CPO mails. I can't express my happiness. From the bottom of my heart I Wish Good Luck to everyone out there waiting for the 485 approval.
Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, Kanmani, Nishant, Champu, and the rest, thanks for your hardwork and inputs. You should keep up the good work.This forum has been exceptional and is an example of how like minded people with good thoughts can gel together with no issues. I was following this forum for a while now and there was never a day i guess that I didn't check it. My Heartful Thanks to Each One of You!!!!!
I will be around and help anyone with questions to the extent of my knowledge.
Below are my details:
SC:NSC|RD:12/2/2011|ND: 12/5/2011|FP ND:1/6/2012|FP RD:1/10/2012|FP Done:1/13/2012(Early-Walk-In Actual SD 2/2/2012)|EAD/AP:1/18/2012|485 CPO:2/22/2012
MS in USA
Changed Employers 2 times
Have been with the same employer for PERM/140/485
Issue free immigration history
On H1 for 8 Yrs
Thanks,
Sandy.
rasknorr
02-22-2012, 02:30 PM
Just got the CPO Mails!!!!!!!!!!
Hi Y'all:
Its my time to share some good news:
Just got my CPO mails. I can't express my happiness. From the bottom of my heart I Wish Good Luck to everyone out there waiting for the 485 approval.
Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, Kanmani, Nishant, Champu, and the rest, thanks for your hardwork and inputs. You should keep up the good work.This forum has been exceptional and is an example of how like minded people with good thoughts can gel together with no issues. I was following this forum for a while now and there was never a day i guess that I didn't check it. My Heartful Thanks to Each One of You!!!!!
I will be around and help anyone with questions to the extent of my knowledge.
Below are my details:
SC:NSC|RD:12/2/2011|ND: 12/5/2011|FP ND:1/6/2012|FP RD:1/10/2012|FP Done:1/13/2012(Early-Walk-In Actual SD 2/2/2012)|EAD/AP:1/18/2012|485 CPO:2/22/2012
MS in USA
Changed Employers 2 times
Have been with the same employer for PERM/140/485
Issue free immigration history
On H1 for 8 Yrs
Thanks,
Sandy.
Congrats!!!
rasknorr
02-22-2012, 02:31 PM
Congrats to Nishant!!!
sandeep11
02-22-2012, 02:40 PM
Pd: 12/4/2007
congratulations sandeep...enjoy the day...by the way what is your priority date
rasknorr
02-22-2012, 02:57 PM
Silently watching the thread and quite happy for a spurt of approvals. December filers are on their way and before the end of this FY, a significant portion of "no-issues" Jan and Feb filers will be greened.
I am in India right now. We did not file, but we may, towards the end of this year. I have nothing to add really. The flood gates are open. the NVD receipt information is out there. If I were to venture a guess, EB2-I will keep marching forward and become current in FY 2013 at this rate.
Maybe some day, we will come back and understand the mystery by analyzing the post data published by the USCIS. Why was there such a large demand cliff post July 2007? It seems a) lack of EADs, b) recession, c) seriously inflated PERM numbers due to multiple PERM factor, and d) significantly more SOFAD than anticipated all contributed to this unbelievable movement.
Congratulations to all who are getting greened and good luck to those who are waiting. Enjoy your freedom while I enjoy wada pav and pav bhaji :D
Thanks for responding.. I am new to this place.. found from others.. that you are a good contributor of info...
qesehmk
02-22-2012, 02:57 PM
Congratulations Sandeep. Enjoy!
Just got the CPO Mails!!!!!!!!!!
Hi Y'all:
Its my time to share some good news:
Just got my CPO mails. I can't express my happiness. From the bottom of my heart I Wish Good Luck to everyone out there waiting for the 485 approval.
.....
mysati
02-22-2012, 03:08 PM
Pd: 12/4/2007
Congrats Sandeep and Nishant! Good luck!
just_curious
02-22-2012, 03:14 PM
Silently watching the thread and quite happy for a spurt of approvals. December filers are on their way and before the end of this FY, a significant portion of "no-issues" Jan and Feb filers will be greened.
I am in India right now. We did not file, but we may, towards the end of this year. I have nothing to add really. The flood gates are open. the NVD receipt information is out there. If I were to venture a guess, EB2-I will keep marching forward and become current in FY 2013 at this rate.
Maybe some day, we will come back and understand the mystery by analyzing the post data published by the USCIS. Why was there such a large demand cliff post July 2007? It seems a) lack of EADs, b) recession, c) seriously inflated PERM numbers due to multiple PERM factor, and d) significantly more SOFAD than anticipated all contributed to this unbelievable movement.
Congratulations to all who are getting greened and good luck to those who are waiting. Enjoy your freedom while I enjoy wada pav and pav bhaji :D
Glad to know that you are having a good time in India.
Most of the information you got from your lawyer were very very close to the current trend. Good luck to you and your family!!!
bieber
02-22-2012, 03:39 PM
Congrats Sandeep
srd4gc
02-22-2012, 04:33 PM
Hi All, we have just received sms for 485 approvals. Status online: Card/Document Production. On February 22, 2012, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.
Thanks everyone for all your support. This is an amazing blog and special thanks to Q for starting such a great hangout place. Good luck to all who are waiting for approvals and to all who are waiting to become current!
CleanSock
02-22-2012, 04:33 PM
Hi all,
I am new to this forum. Came to know about it yesterday only and have been hooked to it ever since :) Thank you all for making this blog so good :)
sk.aggarwal
02-22-2012, 04:42 PM
I have been on this thread for last couple of days and I must say this is one of the best forums out there. Very experienced knowledgeable folks eager to help and advice. Just want to say thank you ... my PD is 06/28 ... hopping to be current soon
maggie
02-22-2012, 04:45 PM
Hi All, we have just received sms for 485 approvals. Status online: Card/Document Production. On February 22, 2012, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.
Thanks everyone for all your support. This is an amazing blog and special thanks to Q for starting such a great hangout place. Good luck to all who are waiting for approvals and to all who are waiting to become current!
Congratulations srd4gd!!! Enjoy.
nishant2200
02-22-2012, 04:50 PM
Thanks a lot guys once again. I am really humbled.
sandeep, srd4gc, congratulations. it's a strange feeling!
kolugc
02-22-2012, 04:54 PM
I am heading to India on Apr 13th for 3 weeks and my PD is 2008 June 9th. From the calculations we have, do you think I might get my 485 approved when I am in India. With Mar 2008 getting approved now, I am not sure myself to take up this trip or not. Never thought in my life that I would be begging to delay my GC approval. I am sure its difficult to give a clear cut dates or answer, just wanted to know your gut feeling. I was assuming that I might get my 485 approved only by Jul-Sep 2012 or so.
Thanks Gurus once again for all the help and clarifications I had got from here so far. And most of my plans have been moved around after certain advice I had from here and it had helped me immensely.
delguy
02-22-2012, 05:07 PM
If one has I-140 approved, could the person go back to India and start CP once the date is current? or one has to specify CP at the time of I-140 application?
narendarrao
02-22-2012, 05:11 PM
As far as i know,You can change this using I-824 Form.
kd2008
02-22-2012, 05:22 PM
Given the large chunk of EB2IC applications that USCIS has to process this fiscal year, EB1 and EB2ROW filers may see a dramatic increase in their processing times, esp, as USCIS starts processing cases filed in Jan 2012 and Feb 2012. Yes, USCIS done a good job with processing EB2IC cases so far but we don't know if they are meeting their targets that Mr. CO expects from them.
On the other hand Mr. CO needs to know the expected SOFAD from EB1 and EB2ROW to move EB2IC dates with least possible retrogression, probably by end of June.
We yet don't know the inventory and demand destruction for EB2IC from the recent forward movement. Some estimates are that there is enough inventory for 2 years already while others say not so (that would include me). So Mr. CO may push dates further to get to that point.
Mr. CO has murmured low EB1 consumption during the Jan 19 meeting. If that continues to stay so and on top there are processing delays then a larger than expected SOFAD could be expected. Just saying it out loud. Let us hope for more good news.
Some rough numbers: I would expect Jan-Feb-March EB2IC filers to produce an inventory of about 30K. SOFAD may go into high 30s depending on how the processing saga unfolds.
cricfan
02-22-2012, 05:27 PM
Congratulations Nishant !!
gkjppp
02-22-2012, 05:32 PM
QUICK QUESTION
Guru's, my wife worked on L2 EAD twice earlier, while filing 765 EAD, there are couple of columns i need to fill 1. Date(s) ---------- 2.Results :Granted twice L2 EAD( also attaching copies of EAD's).
under 11. i opted for yes. i am not sure what should fill in the Date(s) column.
please advise.
CleanSock
02-22-2012, 05:53 PM
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/913602609/email-from-nvc-asking-me-to-pay-fee-for-non-c/page/last_page
vizcard
02-22-2012, 06:18 PM
Given the large chunk of EB2IC applications that USCIS has to process this fiscal year, EB1 and EB2ROW filers may see a dramatic increase in their processing times, esp, as USCIS starts processing cases filed in Jan 2012 and Feb 2012. Yes, USCIS done a good job with processing EB2IC cases so far but we don't know if they are meeting their targets that Mr. CO expects from them.
On the other hand Mr. CO needs to know the expected SOFAD from EB1 and EB2ROW to move EB2IC dates with least possible retrogression, probably by end of June.
We yet don't know the inventory and demand destruction for EB2IC from the recent forward movement. Some estimates are that there is enough inventory for 2 years already while others say not so (that would include me). So Mr. CO may push dates further to get to that point.
Mr. CO has murmured low EB1 consumption during the Jan 19 meeting. If that continues to stay so and on top there are processing delays then a larger than expected SOFAD could be expected. Just saying it out loud. Let us hope for more good news.
Some rough numbers: I would expect Jan-Feb-March EB2IC filers to produce an inventory of about 30K. SOFAD may go into high 30s depending on how the processing saga unfolds.
Are you suggesting that folks through April 2010 will get GCs this year (assuming no RFEs and stuff) ?
nishant2200
02-22-2012, 06:34 PM
Thanks for your wishes again everyone I went through all the messages.
The NVC fee for May 2011 is mind boggling, and it seems to me that CO is preparing for worst case scenario of max visa usage via CP this FY, in case USCIS does not utilize the visa goals. And if USCIS does utilize the visa goals, CO may advance in next FY to this date and make inventory/follow same monthly SO and give approvals. Either way if the news is true, then in around a year, dates should reach May 2011 most probably.
This is mind bogglingly amazing!
Ra.One
02-22-2012, 06:42 PM
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/913602609/email-from-nvc-asking-me-to-pay-fee-for-non-c/page/last_page
That is just bizzzzaarrree!!!
feedmyback
02-22-2012, 06:45 PM
While someone from May 2011 receiving NVC receipt is really encouraging news..... the real mystery here is that person never opted for CP and he was an AOS candidate. God knows what is going on!!! :)
That is just bizzzzaarrree!!!
idiotic
02-22-2012, 06:49 PM
Which address does NVC receipts go to? (Address in US or Address in home country)?
Spectator
02-22-2012, 07:04 PM
Given the large chunk of EB2IC applications that USCIS has to process this fiscal year, EB1 and EB2ROW filers may see a dramatic increase in their processing times, esp, as USCIS starts processing cases filed in Jan 2012 and Feb 2012. Yes, USCIS done a good job with processing EB2IC cases so far but we don't know if they are meeting their targets that Mr. CO expects from them.
On the other hand Mr. CO needs to know the expected SOFAD from EB1 and EB2ROW to move EB2IC dates with least possible retrogression, probably by end of June.
We yet don't know the inventory and demand destruction for EB2IC from the recent forward movement. Some estimates are that there is enough inventory for 2 years already while others say not so (that would include me). So Mr. CO may push dates further to get to that point.
Mr. CO has murmured low EB1 consumption during the Jan 19 meeting. If that continues to stay so and on top there are processing delays then a larger than expected SOFAD could be expected. Just saying it out loud. Let us hope for more good news.
Some rough numbers: I would expect Jan-Feb-March EB2IC filers to produce an inventory of about 30K. SOFAD may go into high 30s depending on how the processing saga unfolds.kd,
I would agree your estimate for Jan-Mar filings of 30k is reasonable. That together with cases remaining at the start of the year, previous VB movement and Porting would mean about 60k total cases.
I'm not entirely sure where the amount of SOFAD you mention is going to come from. EB2-non IC is pretty much where it was last year at this time and EB5 is likely to use even more than the 3.5k it did last year. I don't think it is realistic to think EB1 would provide higher numbers than last year.
I do understand what you are saying about processing times, but if not checked it is a feed back loop. Too much resource on EB2-IC means less approvals for other Categories, which in turn means more EB2-IC cases need to be processed.
Your scenario is also another reason to retrogress dates sooner rather than later. Feb VB filers have a very slim chance and March VB filers have zero chance of approvals this FY, even with the sort of level of SOFAD you mention.
The Feb/March VB cases can be brought to pre-adjudicated status as time and resources permit in PD order. There is no overriding hurry to pre-adjudicate them, particularly the later dates, only to issue the EAD and AP.
It is not going to be seen as acceptable if EB2-IC I-485 cases are adjudicated faster than other I-485 cases in Categories that are truly Current to the end of the year. When there were pre-adjudicated cases, it was reasonable, but now everyone is equal in that respect. EB1A and B candidates in particular might feel rightfully aggrieved, since their I-140 processing is glacial at best.
At the same time that would ensure that the PD order for EB2-IC approvals is generally respected. USCIS may well do this absent retrogression anyway. Their approvals to date have shown a general trend to do that.
On an unrelated note, I think USCIS must be increasingly worried about the number of EAD/AP renewals they will have to make for no income. We know it is a consideration, because CO has mentioned it. I think USCIS recent increase in production rate is an attempt to stop forward movement of the Cut Off Dates. It is certainly one of the reasons CO has given for continuing to do so.
As for CO's musings on EB1, he pulled that trick last year. If USCIS have been feeding him figures as out of date as the last Inventory appears to be, it is no wonder he thinks filings are low. I'm not convinced USCIS has the capability to provide near real time numbers.
An alternative view at least.
nishant2200
02-22-2012, 07:11 PM
Spec, further if you can comment on any effect of below on situation:
http://www.niwus.com/USCIS_Updates201107.html
Notice, they say they do 140 and 485 sequentially, not in parallel.
kd,
I would agree your estimate for Jan-Mar filings of 30k is reasonable. That together with cases remaining at the start of the year, previous VB movement and Porting would mean about 60k total cases.
I'm not entirely sure where the amount of SOFAD you mention is going to come from. EB2-non IC is pretty much where it was last year at this time and EB5 is likely to use even more than the 3.5k it did last year. I don't think it is realistic to think EB1 would provide higher numbers than last year.
I do understand what you are saying about processing times, but if not checked it is a feed back loop. Too much resource on EB2-IC means less approvals for other Categories, which in turn means more EB2-IC cases need to be processed.
Your scenario is also another reason to retrogress dates sooner rather than later. Feb VB filers have a very slim chance and March VB filers have zero chance of approvals this FY, even with the sort of level of SOFAD you mention.
The Feb/March VB cases can be brought to pre-adjudicated status as time and resources permit in PD order. There is no overriding hurry to pre-adjudicate them, particularly the later dates, only to issue the EAD and AP.
It is not going to be seen as acceptable if EB2-IC I-485 cases are adjudicated faster than other I-485 cases in Categories that are truly Current to the end of the year. When there were pre-adjudicated cases, it was reasonable, but now everyone is equal in that respect. EB1A and B candidates in particular might feel rightfully aggrieved, since their I-140 processing is glacial at best.
At the same time that would ensure that the PD order for EB2-IC approvals is generally respected. USCIS may well do this absent retrogression anyway. Their approvals to date have shown a general trend to do that.
On an unrelated note, I think USCIS must be increasingly worried about the number of EAD/AP renewals they will have to make for no income. We know it is a consideration, because CO has mentioned it. I think USCIS recent increase in production rate is an attempt to stop forward movement of the Cut Off Dates. It is certainly one of the reasons CO has given for continuing to do so.
As for CO's musings on EB1, he pulled that trick last year. If USCIS have been feeding him figures as out of date as the last Inventory appears to be, it is no wonder he thinks filings are low. I'm not convinced USCIS has the capability to provide near real time numbers.
An alternative view at least.
mesan123
02-22-2012, 07:50 PM
But he did state the reciept is valid and not junk, as he called USCIS number and confirmed it.....
While someone from May 2011 receiving NVC receipt is really encouraging news..... the real mystery here is that person never opted for CP and he was an AOS candidate. God knows what is going on!!! :)
Spectator
02-22-2012, 07:58 PM
Spec, further if you can comment on any effect of below on situation:
http://www.niwus.com/USCIS_Updates201107.html
Notice, they say they do 140 and 485 sequentially, not in parallel.nishant,
It's an interesting read and a document I have seen before.
The fact that it is sequential was partly behind my comment about EB1, since they are waiting a long time for I-140 approvals before the I-485 is adjudicated.
Otherwise it shouldn't be an issue, since there is a backlog of non EB2-IC cases only awaiting the I-485 approval. That is what the USCIS Inventory represents.
I am not talking about recent concurrently filed cases, where the I-485 will have to await the I-140 approval.
Is that what you were referring to? Your comment was a bit cryptic.
Back in 2008/2009 TSC were far faster than NSC, so the tables have turned. I would like to know the relative numbers of ISOs at NSC and TSC dealing with EB cases.
Maybe TSC ISOs can't get used to working harder for 12 months, rather than only the final 3 months of the year. :) That is probably a bit unfair.
If it is that EB2-IC cases are concentrated in States that TSC deal with then maybe they need to look at which SC deals with them. I'm sure there is load balancing going on - I've seen posts where the application was sent to the Dallas Lockbox and was sent to Nebraska.
mesan123
02-22-2012, 08:07 PM
Spec...can you shed some light on the NVC reciept part....because before i assume any person who got there NVC reciepts were current with in one year from the time they paid fees....if the data is high, and SOFAD is going to be less...why are they sending NVC reciepts for so far date(may 2011).
nishant,
It's an interesting read and a document I have seen before.
The fact that it is sequential was partly behind my comment about EB1, since they are waiting a long time for I-140 approvals before the I-485 is adjudicated.
Otherwise it shouldn't be an issue, since there is a backlog of non EB2-IC cases only awaiting the I-485 approval. That is what the USCIS Inventory represents.
I am not talking about recent concurrently filed cases, where the I-485 will have to await the I-140 approval.
Is that what you were referring to? Your comment was a bit cryptic.
Back in 2008/2009 TSC were far faster than NSC, so the tables have turned. I would like to know the relative numbers of ISOs at NSC and TSC dealing with EB cases.
Maybe TSC ISOs can't get used to working harder for 12 months, rather than only the final 3 months of the year. :) That is probably a bit unfair.
If it is that EB2-IC cases are concentrated in States that TSC deal with then maybe they need to look at which SC deals with them. I'm sure there is load balancing going on - I've seen posts where the application was sent to the Dallas Lockbox and was sent to Nebraska.
nishant2200
02-22-2012, 08:22 PM
Thanks Spec. I can agree with what your understanding is. I just wanted to listen to your commentary about this document and correlation hence to your notes.
nishant,
It's an interesting read and a document I have seen before.
The fact that it is sequential was partly behind my comment about EB1, since they are waiting a long time for I-140 approvals before the I-485 is adjudicated.
Otherwise it shouldn't be an issue, since there is a backlog of non EB2-IC cases only awaiting the I-485 approval. That is what the USCIS Inventory represents.
I am not talking about recent concurrently filed cases, where the I-485 will have to await the I-140 approval.
Is that what you were referring to? Your comment was a bit cryptic.
Back in 2008/2009 TSC were far faster than NSC, so the tables have turned. I would like to know the relative numbers of ISOs at NSC and TSC dealing with EB cases.
Maybe TSC ISOs can't get used to working harder for 12 months, rather than only the final 3 months of the year. :) That is probably a bit unfair.
If it is that EB2-IC cases are concentrated in States that TSC deal with then maybe they need to look at which SC deals with them. I'm sure there is load balancing going on - I've seen posts where the application was sent to the Dallas Lockbox and was sent to Nebraska.
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