EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[shivarajan]

Needed this desperately and missed by 1 day.

PD is 1st Nov 07.:(

[gcseeker]

Shivarajan

Cheer up .We are with you too ( 11/09/2007) ,srd4gc(11/15/2007) and Nishant (around 11/15/2007 is what I remember)...

:) It definetly gives me hope they will move it again next month and we can be current or atleast the day is not too far off.




Needed this desperately and missed by 1 day.

PD is 1st Nov 07.:(

[bieber]

Nishant, are you in? if u just missed, you will get chance for sure next month. Not that you don't know :)

Spec, Please explain FB model when you get a chance

Soggadu, I really want to call this guy and break the news, can't imagine what happens to him when he sees the news :)

Kanmani, is your PD in now?

[Kanmani]

needid , are u so excited!!!!!!!!!!

Is your PD oct 2007? or oct 2011

Congrats if you are current

[imdeng]

Congratulations all who became current - especially frequent contributors like Teddy and Soggadu. Teddy - you have been a rock of support to this community - please continue your good work here and on IV to bring clarity to the whole process and bring a sense of sanity and restraint to our often wild expectations.

[cbpds1]

Kanmani 29/06/2009

Nishant, are you in? if u just missed, you will get chance for sure next month. Not that you don't know :)

Spec, Please explain FB model when you get a chance

Soggadu, I really want to call this guy and break the news, can't imagine what happens to him when he sees the news :)

Kanmani, is your PD in now?

[pch053]

How long it will take the new I485 applications to show up in the Demand Data? Probably we will have an idea in ~2 months on how many new non PWMB (post Aug 15'07 PD) applications are getting submitted. Probably, it will move into early 2008 in the Dec bulletin and then retrogress in 2012 like the FB visa bulletin.

[Kanmani]

:cool: No Bieber long way to go ..................................June 2009

[mysati]

the next demand data will be extremely interesting to get a good sense of how close our calculations for potential demand match the reality...

My two cents...This looks much closer to what the source of CM from 'USNonImmigrants' blog said...

DOS strategically would like not to retrogress cut-off dates for EB2 India and China as long as possible, but rather move dates such that they can intake new demand without using excessive visa numbers than allowed. In retrospective, this means that next bulletin can bring none to one month movement at most, with bigger movement around December and January 2012 visa bulletin, where unused visas from current quarterly spillover and next quarterly spillover could be used rationally. Once that is done, cut-off dates may stall or retrogress based on total demand.

I feel they might be planning for quarterly spillover this year. This intake is for potential Q1 spillover. Hoping there are some internal agreements b/n DOS and USCIS to pre-adj in 3 months. Next movement may be in 2-3 bulletins from now, following the same pattern for Q2 spillover and that intake / movement might depend on how many are still pending from the current intake and this pattern may repeat once or twice until they get a hang of this. If it does not work by Q3/Q4, they might try something else.

Looks like this will provide a more favorable picture of them in terms of not too much retrogression.

One other note: This pattern might also reduce the time they spend in answering enquiries from Senators and so on.

Please feel free to disagree.

[Spectator]

Spec, Please explain FB model when you get a chance.bieber,

I was referring to TK's previous post.


My projection for the year is that everyone in 2007 will get to file 485, now it’s entirely discretionary with DOS-USCIS how much intake they want to take this month irrespective of everything. Just my guess out of gut feeling if we have intake this month it would be 2-3 months of movement, there is no calculation behind this as we haven't seen much of data in 2012 yet. The fresh intake will happen if they are following the FB model of intake in Q1 and retro in Q2, if they want to follow quarterly spillover then the current inventory itself is good.

[Stemcell]

Guys why is the DOS site not updated and showing Nov bulletin coming soon ?

[imdeng]

So now its confirmed, the FB model is in motion - increase PD by 3 months each in every month of the first quarter and then retrogress in the second quarter. That should give USCIS enough time to process everything and have a healthy inventory going into the spillover season. This also ensures that USCIS is not flooded all of a sudden.

Next demand data will be interesting to watch. I am essentially looking for gurus to come to a PERM-to-485 multiplier so that we can get a good fix on the hidden demand beyond the current PD.

[needid]

Yes buddy, It is 10/28/2007.
I can't tell you , how frustrated i was, Many things put on hold esp career and some of the family issues.

needid , are u so excited!!!!!!!!!!

Is your PD oct 2007? or oct 2011

Congrats if you are current

[mygctracker]

Teddy, Hearty congratulations to you! Also, Congrats to all other who are current in Nov. Get busy with medicals,documents,forms,emails2lawyers, blah blah... Good Luck!

Hope that next VB allows me to join the club. :-)


That’s great news, even I became current finally. Sogaddu I believe even you are current. Congrats to everyone finally current.

[natvyas]

CONGRATULATIONS to all whose dates are current with this VB....


Since this movement to NOV 1 07 has confirmed one of the many theories we had, could someone please shed light as to what this means in terms of future movement and how far will USCIS go in accepting new applications ?

The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants
from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

When they say significant ...what is our projection/interpretation of this term based on our experience of hearing from CO?

Regards
Nat

[tackle]

3 of my friends and I got current. Thanks to Q and other forum gurus for all the calculations and predictions. All the best to the rest in line.

[immitime]

Congrats to all in the GC boat... and Please apply for I-485 if you have not done so. because next month bulletin we will never know apart from the accurate predictions here. Happy for all who became current.

[Stemcell]

Is this really true??????? Official site shows Nov bulletin as coming soon.....mine is Oct 26.....cant believe it......please confirm....

[needid]

Sorry,In moment of excitement forgot the to Thanks.
Thanks to Q for this wonderful forum. Thanks to Q,Spec,T,Veni for getting hands dirty to put something useful out for this community.Congrats to all Current.Good luck to Nishant and rest for next bulletin.

[immitime]

Is this really true??????? Official site shows Nov bulletin as coming soon.....mine is Oct 26.....cant believe it......please confirm....

Read this it is TRUE...Happy for you

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf

[imdeng]

It is true. The PDF file often gets uploaded before the visa bulletin link is live. You can begin celebrating. Congratulations!

Is this really true??????? Official site shows Nov bulletin as coming soon.....mine is Oct 26.....cant believe it......please confirm....

[gc0907]

I can't believe. Congrats to everyone and to myself :)))))

[srimurthy]

Right now the PDF file also seems to have been pulled back. Its no longer accessible:
"Sorry, we couldn't find that page on travel.state.gov"

[TeddyKoochu]

Congrats Teddy !!


Teddy, Soggadu, 10/10/2007, belmontboy, indiaeb2 congrats
who else left?


Teddy, the wait is over for u, congrats

Soggadu, congrats


Congratulations Teddy and all others who will be current in November.


Congratulations to everybody who has become Current! Woo Hoo!!

Special thoughts to Teddy, who has done so much to manage the expectations of the community. I am so pleased for you.

PS Looks like the FB model.


Congrats T, You are a great contributor , reading all your words for past 2 years. I am current too.


Sorry,In moment of excitement forgot the to Thanks.
Thanks to Q for this wonderful forum. Thanks to Q,Spec,T,Veni for getting hands dirty to put something useful out for this community.Congrats to all Current.Good luck to Nishant and rest for next bulletin.


Teddy, Hearty congratulations to you! Also, Congrats to all other who are current in Nov. Get busy with medicals,documents,forms,emails2lawyers, blah blah... Good Luck!

Hope that next VB allows me to join the club. :-)


Teddy, Soggadu, 10/10/2007, belmontboy, indiaeb2 congrats
who else left?


Big Thank you to all my friends.

Spec, the credit for all the research on the FB model should go to Nishant, he was the one who did all the hard work, Iam just using his work.

[gc0907]

Yeah what happened to the PDF link? It is same like Sept VB. Making us crazy.

[nishant2200]

Friends, I was out on lunch, following on iPhone in car. I came back, sat just for 5 minutes dizzy.

yes, I am 11/8/2007. I need two more weeks of movement. Any next movement whenever it happens will absorb me.

My heartfelt best wishes for all who got current.

My current take, just based on gut feeling is that next VB will be a mini version of this one, there will be two months movement to Jan 1st 2008.


Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Nov2011.pdf


And I am current!!!

rdsingh, you are the star of the day. God bless you.




Hearing on STEM the TIDE!

Hearing on: "STEM the Tide: Should America Try to Prevent an Exodus of Foreign Graduates of U.S. Universities with Advanced Science Degrees?"


Testimony by VivekWadhwa.

1. The right solution is to significantly increase the numbers of visas that are offered to skilled workers in the EB1-through-3 categories. We also need to remove the per-country limits. If a move such as this proves politically untenable, then the conversion of temporary visas to permanent residencies could be tied to the purchase of a house, of say $250,000 or more in value. 2. We should provide permanent-resident visas for graduates of top U.S. colleges. Given that, among U.S. postgraduate engineering and science students, nearly half of masters and most PhD students are foreign nationals, it makes sense to encourage these students to stay in the U.S. after graduation. Though it will not guarantee that they will stay, it will certainly make it more likely. To limit abuse of this program, it should only apply to degree holders from research universities or universities with established and well-regarded science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) programs. We should also require that students receive job offers from legitimate U.S. corporations. 3. Another solution is to allow skilled workers to get a green card if they start a company that employs Americans. As we noted from our research, the majority of the foreign-born entrepreneurs who started Silicon Valley companies entered the U.S. for education or work. They started companies 13 years, on average, after their arrival in the U.S. So, this was the cohort that had entered the U.S. in the ’80s and early ’90s. A sizeable proportion of the 2000 cohort is stuck in “immigration limbo.” There are tens of thousands of such immigrants who are ready to start companies that create jobs if we let them.

http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/Wadhwa%2010052011.pdf


Read the whole

http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/hear_10052011_2.html

Legislative action is the permanent fix to this mess. As a EB community, we can't forget the mess our EB3 brothers are in still, as well as EB2 for later on years can't still be predicted with total certainty.


mine is 10/29/2007. can't believe this!

dude have the big beer mug now, the one which is in your avatar on IV. Or have a physics marathon :) congrats.


Very happy for those who became currently Finally. Teddy you definetly deserve it.Congrats to Soggadu as well.

myself and Nishant just missed it ( Mine is Nov 9th and Nishant is probably around the same time ) . I just hope it moves in the next VB too.

Congrats once again.

gcseeker, if you are in Los Angeles, would be glad to have drinks and observe a minute of silence for both of us :)


I think , Soggadu bhai is taking an afternoon nap. Wake up!!!!!!!!!! Good news is waiting .

Sorry Nishant you missed it by a week.

Kanmani, thanks for remembering me. I ride on the good wishes of people, and this is what helps me. Thank you again.


Congratulations to everybody who has become Current! Woo Hoo!!

Special thoughts to Teddy, who has done so much to manage the expectations of the community. I am so pleased for you.

PS Looks like the FB model.

Yes, I don't think quarterly SO etc model. And even if they do quarterly SO, who says they cant combine and get the best of both. Date movement is solely to make inventory, why club it with the confines of quarterly SO.

[nishant2200]

Nishant, are you in? if u just missed, you will get chance for sure next month. Not that you don't know :)

Spec, Please explain FB model when you get a chance

Soggadu, I really want to call this guy and break the news, can't imagine what happens to him when he sees the news :)

Kanmani, is your PD in now?

bieber, as I said above, I missed by a few. Thanks for thinking of me. You guys prayers will take me and us all through.


Sorry,In moment of excitement forgot the to Thanks.
Thanks to Q for this wonderful forum. Thanks to Q,Spec,T,Veni for getting hands dirty to put something useful out for this community.Congrats to all Current.Good luck to Nishant and rest for next bulletin.

needid, thank you for your wishes. All the best to you.

[nishant2200]

Its been a very lucky day for me. This morning I clicked on bookmarked link for Demand Data and I saw the Nov data posted (first try). And then this afternoon I tried the Nov VB linked and the pdf document loaded!!! (instead of "sorry cannot find the webpage on DOS website). With huge anticipation, I scrolled down (hands trembling) and voilaa....Nov 01 2007...means i am current. Indeed a very lucky day for me. May be today I should buy Powerball and Mega Millions tickets too:D:D

You sir indeed are the star of the day. Entire Amgen corporation (read tons of desis) near my office, is celebrating because of news broken by you.


Shivarajan

Cheer up .We are with you too ( 11/09/2007) ,srd4gc(11/15/2007) and Nishant (around 11/15/2007 is what I remember)...

:) It definetly gives me hope they will move it again next month and we can be current or atleast the day is not too far off.

seeker, dont increase my pain. its 11/8/07, not 11/15/07 :)

[nishant2200]

Right now the PDF file also seems to have been pulled back. Its no longer accessible:
"Sorry, we couldn't find that page on travel.state.gov"

dont worry it will come back. it happened earlier too.

[skpanda]

Still accessible -

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Nov2011.pdf



Right now the PDF file also seems to have been pulled back. Its no longer accessible:
"Sorry, we couldn't find that page on travel.state.gov"

[Spectator]

So now its confirmed, the FB model is in motion - increase PD by 3 months each in every month of the first quarter and then retrogress in the second quarter. That should give USCIS enough time to process everything and have a healthy inventory going into the spillover season. This also ensures that USCIS is not flooded all of a sudden.

Next demand data will be interesting to watch. I am essentially looking for gurus to come to a PERM-to-485 multiplier so that we can get a good fix on the hidden demand beyond the current PD.imdeng,

Unfortunately, it will take several months for the numbers to appear in either the Demand Data or a USCIS Inventory.

The Inventory is better, since it slices the data monthly and only needs an I-485 with an underlying I-140 approved.

The Inventory after next is probably the best bet.

The Demand Data requires the I-485 to be documentarily qualified, meaning it is pre-adjudicated - that takes considerable time and continuous approvals make it very dynamic.

[pch053]

USCIS says the same thing about EB2 movement for Nov bulletin too:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One thing he mentioned is "significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated"; not sure, whether this implies that the dates will move well into 2008! Also, there is a note that the movements might not be on a monthly basis. Maybe, the indication is that visa date movements might be a bit intermittent in the coming months.

[soggadu]

yes big T, beiber, JJ and all people of the forum........ i am also current... pehli baar current huaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.............. it's like going on my first date...no words to describe....i wish everybody gets current (so that everybody feel so confused as me :-) ).... abb mein kya karoon ( what do i do now)....also thanks to my friend prabha who has given me this news...he is one of the anonymous readers...

Jai ho to everyone...ROCK ONNNNNNNN....

Big N and others....dont worry... aap khatar mein ho ( you are in the line) and next number is yours... i am very sure it is going to go till 2008 September this time... the trend has started... i wish u all (including myself) the very best to come....

[10102007]

Thank you all. Feels a bit numb. Feels a bit strange too. The news is yet to sink in.

Nishanth buddy, will pray that you and other folks cross the line soon.

One again, THANK YOU all.

[kd2008]

Spec,

Could please analyze PW data from Q3 2011?

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm

I didn't see it in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Dertermination-Data-Analysis

Thanks a bunch!

[mygctracker]

Nishant Guru, Please say atleast Feb 1,2008 for Dec VB. Mine is 01/16/2008.


Friends, I was out on lunch, following on iPhone in car. I came back, sat just for 5 minutes dizzy.

yes, I am 11/8/2007. I need two more weeks of movement. Any next movement whenever it happens will absorb me.

My heartfelt best wishes for all who got current.

My current take, just based on gut feeling is that next VB will be a mini version of this one, there will be two months movement to Jan 1st 2008.



rdsingh, you are the star of the day. God bless you.





Legislative action is the permanent fix to this mess. As a EB community, we can't forget the mess our EB3 brothers are in still, as well as EB2 for later on years can't still be predicted with total certainty.



dude have the big beer mug now, the one which is in your avatar on IV. Or have a physics marathon :) congrats.



gcseeker, if you are in Los Angeles, would be glad to have drinks and observe a minute of silence for both of us :)



Kanmani, thanks for remembering me. I ride on the good wishes of people, and this is what helps me. Thank you again.



Yes, I don't think quarterly SO etc model. And even if they do quarterly SO, who says they cant combine and get the best of both. Date movement is solely to make inventory, why club it with the confines of quarterly SO.

[gc0907]

ok the link is live here as well: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

[gcseeker]

10102007

Congrats to you buddy and I hope you get your EAD/AP soon .Hopefully it will enable you to visit your folks and beloved dog often.

Enjoy the day.


Thank you all. Feels a bit numb. Feels a bit strange too. The news is yet to sink in.

Nishanth buddy, will pray that you and other folks cross the line soon.

One again, THANK YOU all.

[tanu_75]

Congratulations to all who became current! It's been a long time coming for you folks. Hopefully we'll see this move into Jan 2008. I thought we'll have moved to here by the end of last year but I think USCIS feels more comfortable taking in batches of around 5-10k apps. So that's approximately movement of 4-5 months everytime they decide, which could be every 2-3 months. But one thing's clear, they are running out of applications and need to refill their inventory.

[nishant2200]

Thank you all. Feels a bit numb. Feels a bit strange too. The news is yet to sink in.

Nishanth buddy, will pray that you and other folks cross the line soon.

One again, THANK YOU all.

Thank you friend. You are most welcome, your thoughts are well appreciated.


Nishant Guru, Please say atleast Feb 1,2008 for Dec VB. Mine is 01/16/2008.

:) I know how you feel. You are right on the edge.

I just think that 2008 might be a psychological barrier maybe for USCIS/DOS, and hopefully they break it soon.

That is why I really don't like to say specific gut feeling dates, there is always someone on the right side of it :)

All the best.

[pdmay2008]

Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Nov2011.pdf


And I am current!!!

Congrats to every one who are current.

This gives lot of hope for all of us waiting in the queue.

[srimurthy]

Congrats to all who became current. soggadu you changes your pic on the right day.
Also the PDF and the actual link for VB is all updated and available.
And somebody pointed out earlier in the day that it happened before that the DD info and VB info was out on same day earlier and can happen today too..

I am recalling the MTWTF.. statement...

[nishant2200]

ok the link is live here as well: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

You beat rdsingh in grabbing this first :D

[dreamer]

Congratulations for all the folks down here who will be current with this Nov Bulletin....

[superdesi2100]

Visa bulletin appears on USCIS website in HTML format - at least when I checked 5 mins ago.

Congratulations to all those who are current. Nishantbhai - you should now expect to see light at the end of this long tunnel pretty soon.

[gc0907]

You beat rdsingh in grabbing this first :D

Yeah...bcoz I am current :). Thanks to you and other gurus here helping out ease some tension.
Good luck to you bcoz looks like your karma wants you to serve here a bit longer.

[soggadu]

Congrats to all who became current. soggadu you changes your pic on the right day.
Also the PDF and the actual link for VB is all updated and available.
And somebody pointed out earlier in the day that it happened before that the DD info and VB info was out on same day earlier and can happen today too..

I am recalling the MTWTF.. statement...

yes murty garu... i didnt know i wud get this news when i changed the avatar....

[nishant2200]

Visa bulletin appears on USCIS website in HTML format - at least when I checked 5 mins ago.

Congratulations to all those who are current. Nishantbhai - you should now expect to see light at the end of this long tunnel pretty soon.

superdesi2100, thanks for thinking of me. I know, as I said earlier sometimes, I am been running around, carrying a baggage of all sorts of papers, proofs, identity, salary, tax returns, certificates, marksheets, i-20, i-94, and what have you. I want to lie down peacefully and sleep one day when I get there, and not have to think of all this.


Yeah...bcoz I am current :). Thanks to you and other gurus here helping out ease some tension.
Good luck to you bcoz looks like your karma wants you to serve here a bit longer.

Most of us here do this as a passion, not just for selfish interest. Although have to say, once really get GC, might go to Alaska and meditate with Polar Bears for a week.

[superdesi2100]

Re - reduction in the demand data from October to November - Ron Gotcher states - "Any reduction in numbers would have to come from the quota then in use (i.e., FY 2011)"

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/demand-data-for-novermber-2011-a-15460/

[kpt112107]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5572.html

EB2 - Nov 1st 2007

[iamdeb]

yes murty garu... i didnt know i wud get this news when i changed the avatar....

Congrats Soggadu!! I am sure you must be dancing like your icon now.
Congrats to guru T and all others who became Current.
T really appreciate all your analysis in this forum.
Cheers to Q,V,T,S,N and all other experts here.
You guys rock!

[krishnav]

Gurus,

For someone with Sept 13 2007 PD, how long do you expect it to take to get my EAD and then GC. I ask becasue of the statements like these.

"The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility."

If at all they retrogress after some forward movement, what kind of retrogressed dates can we expect? I am guesssing not less than July 2007 as we are already seeing cases from July 2007 being cleared??
Sorry if its a dumb question.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Dear Friends ,

I'm at work and I'm almost tearful with joy for the movement and see you all become current. I'm dec 4 07 about a month away myself and hopefully will be current soon.

Wishing all of you a very happy green life ahead .

Just a note : Dont forget the people that have helped you all in your life in this journey. Family, kids , spouse anyone ....

[nishant2200]

Very well said. I am 11/8/2007 , hence not current, but yes, can see light at the end of the tunnel.

I was in a bit of a state of daze myself once I saw the Nov 1st 2007.

Basically, for you and me, it is any VB now, it's a very strange state to be in. I and gcseeker were earlier talking about restless nights this week, now the week has been extended to n number of months.

Dear Friends ,

I'm at work and I'm almost tearful with joy for the movement and see you all become current. I'm dec 4 07 about a month away myself and hopefully will be current soon.

Wishing all of you a very happy green life ahead .

Just a note : Dont forget the people that have helped you all in your life in this journey. Family, kids , spouse anyone ....

[sreddy]

This is great. Congrats to all those who became current. I still have time (5th Aug 2008).

So how long are they will keep it moving is still a million dollar question i guess. One thing is clear. Instead of opening flood gates like in 2007, I think they are following new method by moving 2-3 months each bulletin until their estimated numbers match for this year.

[bhayzone]

Life is such a roller coaster .. such a roller coaster !!!!

Just this morning, on this very thread, I was ranting about fate and how tipsy-turvy it has been for me in the last couple of weeks. And then I read the Nov bulletin ... I was current !!! (PD 10/10/2007) ... I din't know how to react .... I was happy .. very very happy, but yet still uncertain of what lies ahead ... h1b transfer in progress .. can I apply for 485, will by company apply for my 485, will I get an RFE, how much is it going to cost me .. and the list is endless. I guess I'll get my answers soon ... and hopefully they will be good !!! But for everyone who is going through a rough patch, just remember that the end is just around the corner.

Congrats to everyone who got current ... prayers for everyone waiting ... and tonnes of thanks to everyone on this forum !!!!

[krishnav]

Hi Nishant,

I was very happy to see my date become current but felt sad when I realized that you missed it my a week or 2.
You have been very helpful through out with your answers and encouraging replies. I wish and pray that you will be current next month.


Very well said. I am 11/8/2007 , hence not current, but yes, can see light at the end of the tunnel.

I was in a bit of a state of daze myself once I saw the Nov 1st 2007.

Basically, for you and me, it is any VB now, it's a very strange state to be in. I and gcseeker were earlier talking about restless nights this week, now the week has been extended to n number of months.

[Monica12]

OMG !!! just saw.. A big congrats to all my buddies here who got current...Yipeeeeeee..!!
10/10/2007, belmontboy, indiaeb2, rd singh, bleakhope and everyone else who I'm forgetting...:D
Teddy.. man, I'm really happy for you :D
and Soggadu, what can I say....I'm partying this weekend to celebrate you getting electrified :D
Gcseeker, Nishant and everyone else who missed it by a few days,buddies..hang in there.I think next month also, we should see some movement:D

[sandeep11]

Congratulations to everybody that got current. Teddy/Sogaddu congratulations!!!!!

So truly said Nishant. I am one month away (Dec) and honestly I was a little disappointed, but on the positive side we are atleast close by. If we look at it four years back from now this is much much better.

What can we infer from the below. They said there would be siginificant demand, they also mentioned they anticipate significant cut-off date movement, in addition they say it wouldn't be monthly and eventually retrogress.

This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.








Very well said. I am 11/8/2007 , hence not current, but yes, can see light at the end of the tunnel.

I was in a bit of a state of daze myself once I saw the Nov 1st 2007.

Basically, for you and me, it is any VB now, it's a very strange state to be in. I and gcseeker were earlier talking about restless nights this week, now the week has been extended to n number of months.

[soggadu]

thnx all for the wishes... also heads up for all... get ur appointment asap...

https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?action=offices.type&OfficeLocator.office_type=CIV

(thanks to Monica for the link and wishes...she's the best)

[gchopeful123]

Oh my God!! I am current (Sep 2007) !!!

I dont believe this. I was expecting the VB to be out on Fri, not today. Was not ready for this pleasant shock. To think we were discussing about vaccinations just a couple of weeks back.

I was busy today so didnt browse the forum much. I was going page by page until i reached page 13 and voila!!

Soggadu, my jersey desi bhai - are u current?

Congrats to all who are current!!

[qesehmk]

soggadu dear very happy for you. Your old avatar (same one when I became current) is FANTASTIC :)

You must be having "Pehla Pyaar Laye Jeevan Mein Bahaar"-Kind-of-happiness I assume !!



thnx all for the wishes... also heads up for all... get ur appointment asap...

https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?action=offices.type&OfficeLocator.office_type=CIV

(thanks to Monica for the link and wishes...she's the best)

[soggadu]

soggadu dear very happy for you. Your old avatar (same one when I became current) is FANTASTIC :)

You must be having "Pehla Pyaar Laye Jeevan Mein Bahaar"-Kind-of-happiness I assume !!

yes Q... i am excited, anxious and a lot more...but got nice friends who are helping me calm down right now....lol... thnx for the wishes and i hope everything gets done smoothly... feeling like my first date right now....lol...

[soggadu]

Oh my God!! I am current (Sep 2007) !!!

I dont believe this. I was expecting the VB to be out on Fri, not today. Was not ready for this pleasant shock. To think we were discussing about vaccinations just a couple of weeks back.

I was busy today so didnt browse the forum much. I was going page by page until i reached page 13 and voila!!

Soggadu, my jersey desi bhai - are u current?

Congrats to all who are current!!

hopefull bhai...ur hopes are full now.... yes i am in too...

[Gclongwait]

I hope we get 3.5 months next mnth also. Put me over the edge.

[veni001]

yes big T, beiber, JJ and all people of the forum........ i am also current... pehli baar current huaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.............. it's like going on my first date...no words to describe....i wish everybody gets current (so that everybody feel so confused as me :-) ).... abb mein kya karoon ( what do i do now)....also thanks to my friend prabha who has given me this news...he is one of the anonymous readers...

Jai ho to everyone...ROCK ONNNNNNNN....

Big N and others....dont worry... aap khatar mein ho ( you are in the line) and next number is yours... i am very sure it is going to go till 2008 September this time... the trend has started... i wish u all (including myself) the very best to come....

Congratulations Soggadu, Please drink responsibly tonight! :)

[TeddyKoochu]

Dear friends, my sincerest and heartfelt thanks to all of you for your good wishes. I have no words to thank you all. Congrats to everyone who is current.

[Monica12]

Dear friends, my sincerest and heartfelt thanks to all of you for your good wishes. I have no words to thank you all. Congrats to everyone who is current.
Teddy... You Rock !!!!! So happy for you and my other buddies here. I'm probably more happy today, then when I became current last month. When happiness can be shared with others...it means so much more :D
Hell... I think I will have a few drinks tonite LOL!

[Stemcell]

Read this it is TRUE...Happy for you

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf


Thank you for replying.
Its been a long journey....couldnt believe my eyes and still cannot believe it....somebody touch me.....

[Spectator]

Spec,

Could please analyze PW data from Q3 2011?

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm

I didn't see it in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Dertermination-Data-Analysis

Thanks a bunch!kd,

Updated now.

I analyzed it when it came out, but the % had changed so little, I didn't bother to publish it.

[Stemcell]

Congratulations for all who are current !
Thanks all.

[TheTexan]

Friends,

Congrats to all those who became current!

Regards

[Govind]

Congratulations to all whose dates became current.

My priority date is Oct 2008, longway to go.

[nayekal]

Congrats to all who became current (Teddy, Soggadu etc) and I really feel sorry for those who are not yet current (Nishant etc).

This is one of the most happiest and memorable news after a long gap and I can't tell how relaxed I am. I wish and hope that I forget the crappy politics at my work place for next 7 months.

This is real Dassera for me and hope every one the same.

Last but not the least ...thanks to Q, Spec, Teddy, Soggadu, Nishant, skpanda, globfan and many others for continued contribution relentlessly, some are done and some are still expecting, who are feeding us with data and letting us dream of some hope.

I can go to India after a long gap of 6 years.

[girish989]

Hello Gurus(Fab 5),

I would really appreciate if you could give your updated predictions (for this year and the years to come) based on today's Visa bulletin and inventory data.

Thanks for all the hard work and great guidance.

[TheTexan]

Buddy mine is July 2008 hang in there..

[grnwtg]

wow, amazing...just heard the news...I am happy for all of our guys who are current.
My immediate thought was Nishant missed it, i felt very disgusting ( as some of you know, we have so many things incommon like when we got here when we bought home, when our parents visa's got rejected etc, i am having sentiment that i will get my EAD just after Nishant).
I was going through some of our older posts, i felt Q and guru's are reasonably correct with given data in calculating the forecast ( better than weather man).

we are getting good information on how to file and where to get certain information in this forum, that is what i like most - better than prediction.
Those who are current please pray for us who are not current.

[nishant2200]

grnwtg, I remembered you too. Relief for our parents is in sight. lets hang on. thanks for your wishes for everyone.


wow, amazing...just heard the news...I am happy for all of our guys who are current.
My immediate thought was Nishant missed it, i felt very disgusting ( as some of you know, we have so many things incommon like when we got here when we bought home, when our parents visa's got rejected etc, i am having sentiment that i will get my EAD just after Nishant).
I was going through some of our older posts, i felt Q and guru's are reasonably correct with given data in calculating the forecast ( better than weather man).

we are getting good information on how to file and where to get certain information in this forum, that is what i like most - better than prediction.
Those who are current please pray for us who are not current.

[Monica12]

grnwtg, I remembered you too. Relief for our parents is in sight. lets hang on. thanks for your wishes for everyone.
Buddy... hang on ! Another month and you'll be in. Praying for you, Gcseeker and others :)

[nishant2200]

Buddy... hang on ! Another month and you'll be in. Praying for you, Gcseeker and others :)

Monica, you hopefully should be greened anytime now, since it's May 07 PD for you. Thank you again, and all the best.

[July2007PD]

Folks i got this email just now .. not sure what does this mean ?? does that mean decision is still pending ? can someone plz clarify

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Decision

On October 5, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.

[TeddyKoochu]

Folks i got this email just now .. not sure what does this mean ?? does that mean decision is still pending ? can someone plz clarify

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Decision

On October 5, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.

This means that you are greened, enjoy green life, many congrats.

[pch053]

I assume your PD is July'07, based on your id. So, it seems that USCIS is approving April'07 - July'07 PDs, albeit a bit randomly.

[grnwtg]

Folks i got this email just now .. not sure what does this mean ?? does that mean decision is still pending ? can someone plz clarify

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Decision

On October 5, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.

Go and Have a blast Dude...probably you not believing your eyes :)

[Monica12]

Folks i got this email just now .. not sure what does this mean ?? does that mean decision is still pending ? can someone plz clarify

Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Decision

On October 5, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.
you are GREENED, my friend ! Gosh, I love it ! Bring on more of these approvals :)

[grnwtg]

Yes Nishant, definetly i see Relief for you in next month bulletin, with Gods Grace i will see mine in this fiscal year.
Steve Jobs story is filling me with optimism...RIP..

grnwtg, I remembered you too. Relief for our parents is in sight. lets hang on. thanks for your wishes for everyone.

[July2007PD]

wow i cant believe myself.. MY pd is July 11th 2007. I think i found a logic behind this.. hopefully cuz recently i applied for AP renewal and also applied for my wife on oct1st one of these two triggered them to open my application and being current just approved my 485.

[gaurav811]

My PD Is Oct 31st and I feel lucky to just make it. What would be your best guess of my timeframe to get GC ?

[sai999]

Hello every body,

I am so happy to see the all guru's getting current and finally every body seeing light in the end of the very bid tunnel.Special thanks to Teddy and Soggadu and nishant you will be current 100% in the next bulletin good luck to all others who got current and people who are waiting to file 485

[red2green]

Congrats to all who will become current in November. Can't believe will have EAD in hands in about 4 months.

one quick question, if you look at I-693 and I-864 forms, on right top corner, they have 10/31/2011 as expiration date. Does that mean we can't use those forms for November filing ?

[sandeep11]

Q/Spec/Teddy,

Sorry to ask this question again but I am little anxious since I am one month one week away from being current. In the VB they mentioned there would be siginificant demand from this movement, they also mentioned they anticipate significant cut-off date movement in future, in addition they say it wouldn't be monthly and eventually retrogress. Looks like they covered themselves either way. What are your thoughts on this.

This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

[nishant2200]

My interpretation: Anything can happen any time.

As you said, they covered all bases like an expert lawyer. Really, I think, we can just stop reading into these lines, and not brain warp into it. Overall the language is positive, it shows intent to move ahead.


Q/Spec/Teddy,

Sorry to ask this question again but I am little anxious since I am one month one week away from being current. In the VB they mentioned there would be siginificant demand from this movement, they also mentioned they anticipate significant cut-off date movement in future, in addition they say it wouldn't be monthly and eventually retrogress. Looks like they covered themselves either way. What are your thoughts on this.

This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

[Monica12]

Q/Spec/Teddy,

Sorry to ask this question again but I am little anxious since I am one month one week away from being current. In the VB they mentioned there would be siginificant demand from this movement, they also mentioned they anticipate significant cut-off date movement in future, in addition they say it wouldn't be monthly and eventually retrogress. Looks like they covered themselves either way. What are your thoughts on this.

This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.
Yeah..with that, they have basically covered everything. Most likely dates should move in the next VB.

[qesehmk]

The dates where they are today will not retrogress - at least not until 3 months from now. Rather they could progress 3-6 months.

A movement beyond 6 months is certainly likely to retrogress at some point of time.



Q/Spec/Teddy,

Sorry to ask this question again but I am little anxious since I am one month one week away from being current. In the VB they mentioned there would be siginificant demand from this movement, they also mentioned they anticipate significant cut-off date movement in future, in addition they say it wouldn't be monthly and eventually retrogress. Looks like they covered themselves either way. What are your thoughts on this.

This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.


Hi,

Thanks to everyone for this valuable discussions, and congrats to everyone who are going to be current in Nov. My PD is 30-Jul-2007, so I will be current in Nov. I have already filed my I-485 in July 2007. So my question is , does anyone has any idea how much time it takes to get the GC once the PD is current, as I am planning to go to india in end of Nov, and will have to get the visa stamped(no AP)

More than likely your case is preadjudicated. Its quite likely you will receive GC in hand in 2-3 weeks - especially if you are working for a fortune 500.

[nishant2200]

Countdown begins again. Nov 8th 2011, 33 days to go.

Good night!

[pch053]

I see few more trackitt approvals for EB2-I cases with PD ranging from mid-April to mid-July'07; I think there are 5 - 6 approvals so far. Interestingly, all of these approvals are from Nebraska center but this might be just a coincidence.

[pch053]

Countdown begins again. Nov 8th 2011, 33 days to go.

Good night!

I think you will surely be current in the next bulletin as USCIS says that there will be more forward movement (even though it might be followed with retrogression). Good luck!

[bleakHope]

Nishant,
I wish and pray that you along with others who are waiting to file I-485 get current in the next bulletin.
Many thanks to you, Q, Veni, Soggadu, Teddi, Spec, Monica, Kanmani, and everybody else for making this wait bearable and for giving everybody hope (based on good quantitative backing)!!

All the very best!!


Countdown begins again. Nov 8th 2011, 33 days to go.

Good night!

[Sandeep2011]

Nishant, i am really feeling bad for you, you just missed it by a whisker. I hope you become current in the next VB.

I have a request for Q and other friends who recently went through filing 485 - can you please post the procedure for filing 485? I apologize if it has been been discussed already. In that case, may i request to point me to the relevant thread.

My lawyer is on vacation till 20th October and i don't want to wait till he comes back. Congratulations again to everyone who have become current during this VB.



Very well said. I am 11/8/2007 , hence not current, but yes, can see light at the end of the tunnel.

I was in a bit of a state of daze myself once I saw the Nov 1st 2007.

Basically, for you and me, it is any VB now, it's a very strange state to be in. I and gcseeker were earlier talking about restless nights this week, now the week has been extended to n number of months.

[soggadufan]

Congrats Soggadu. This is making me feel so better (what made you say sep 2008). mine is Aug 2008.

i am very sure it is going to go till 2008 September this time... the trend has started... i wish u all (including myself) the very best to come....

[UkayDkay]

I still can't believe it, Congratulations to everyone who got current. Thank you all for the great work with the numbers and providing invaluable insight into this complex subject.

Couple of questions going on in my mind and requesting Guru's thoughts on it. I am not with the company thats sponsoring my GC & Nov. bulletin gave an opportunity to file I-485 with them. I understand its for future job, but at what point I am elegible to join them? Is it after filing I-485, or after receiving the EAD or after receiving the GC?

Thnx

[yesman]

Congrats to all the folks that got current and wishing the best for the ones on the fence. I have a PD of Apr 3, 2008. It's a little nerve wracking with all the predictions pointing towards at the best case scenario of the dates reaching Mar 2008 for FY 2012. I'm also facing the question of whether or not to take up an employment offer and I would NOT be inclined to move even if there is a somewhat reasonable chance that I can file a 485 before Oct 2012. Any suggestions/thoughts? Thanks!

[qesehmk]

As long as you have EAD or H1 you can join anytime. Or you can join after obtaining GC.


Couple of questions going on in my mind and requesting Guru's thoughts on it. I am not with the company thats sponsoring my GC & Nov. bulletin gave an opportunity to file I-485 with them. I understand its for future job, but at what point I am elegible to join them? Is it after filing I-485, or after receiving the EAD or after receiving the GC?

Thnx


Congrats to all the folks that got current and wishing the best for the ones on the fence. I have a PD of Apr 3, 2008. It's a little nerve wracking with all the predictions pointing towards at the best case scenario of the dates reaching Mar 2008 for FY 2012. I'm also facing the question of whether or not to take up an employment offer and I would NOT be inclined to move even if there is a somewhat reasonable chance that I can file a 485 before Oct 2012. Any suggestions/thoughts? Thanks!
Yours is a bit long shot to get GC this year. But its quite possible that you may be able to file 485 this year (i.e. 2012)

[leo4ever]

That’s great news, even I became current finally. Sogaddu I believe even you are current. Congrats to everyone finally current.

Congrats buddy. I am very happy for you and everyone who is current. Hope i will happy too , some day.......

[kd2008]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/OFLC_2010_Master_for_WebSite_StateFix.pdf

[vchirakala]

Friends,

Can anyone tell me till when did the NVC accepted the fee ?? Sometime Sep 2008 if I'm not wrong ???

[08OCT2008]

Interesting to see the map of India in page 23 and 24


http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/OFLC_2010_Master_for_WebSite_StateFix.pdf

[Spectator]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/OFLC_2010_Master_for_WebSite_StateFix.pdfkd,

You beat me to it!

I am still reading it, but some interesting things in there. It also discusses the Backlog Reduction efforts. Here are some selected snippets:


In the last three quarters of FY 2010, computer-related occupations ranked among the most commonly requested occupations on PWDs issued. Computer Software Engineer, Computer Systems Analyst, Computer and Information Systems Manager, and Computer Programmer occupations constituted over 25 percent of the total PWDs issued.

Of these occupations, Computer Software Engineers, Applications, was the most frequently requested occupation , representing 13 percent of all PWDs issued. The remaining most frequently requested occupations each represented 2 percent or less of the total PWDs issued.


The employer with the highest number of applications filed during FY 2010 was Cognizant Technology Solutions US Corp. with more than 1,000 applications filed. Two school districts, Prince George’s County Public Schools and Dallas Independent School District, are also among the top 25 employers that filed applications in FY 2010. Forty percent of these 25 employers are technology or computer-related companies.


In FY 2010 India, South Korea, and China remained three countries of origin with the most certifications for foreign workers in the permanent labor certification program; however, Canada and Mexico moved above the Philippines and into the top five. Of the five leading countries, workers from India represent 41 percent of permanent labor certifications. Workers from South Korea follow with only 6.56 percent. The top five countries represent 73 percent of the total number of certifications in FY 2010.


The largest number of permanent labor certifications were for foreign workers originating from India, South Korea, China, Canada and Mexico.

The occupations of Computer Software Engineers, Computer Systems Analysts, Electronics Engineers and Electrical Engineers comprise the majority of job opportunities filled by foreign workers from India, China and Canada.

The most commen occupations for South Korea and Mexico include Chefs and Head Cooks, Tailors, Clergy, Elementary School Teachers and Farmworkers.


In addition to the existing 66,885 cases carried over from FY 2009 on October 1, 2009, employers filed 43,984 new PERM applications in FY 2010.


During FY 2010 a total of 82,685 PERM applications were adjudicated compared to 36,409 in FY 2009, more than doubling production.


As a result of the intensive backlog reduction effort, from January 2010 through September 2010, OFLC reduced the active caseload down from 63,412 to 29,589.

[Reader]

Deleted...

[sandeep11]

Thanks Q/Nishant/Monica and others. I will hope for the best and wish good luck to everyone out there waiting to file their 485.



The dates where they are today will not retrogress - at least not until 3 months from now. Rather they could progress 3-6 months.

A movement beyond 6 months is certainly likely to retrogress at some point of time.






More than likely your case is preadjudicated. Its quite likely you will receive GC in hand in 2-3 weeks - especially if you are working for a fortune 500.

[mysati]

kd,

You beat me to it!

I am still reading it, but some interesting things in there. It also discusses the Backlog Reduction efforts. Here are some selected snippets:

Personally, I can vouch for the backlog reduction in FY 2009 - 2010. Inspite of my employer being in the Fortune-100 list and generally having no problems/ queries with regard to the LCs filed by my Company, my LC was audited and took 2 years and 2 month to clear (finally got in March 2010). I heard from the lawyers that it was due to some fiasco during late 2007 and several apps filed during that period were under audit.

It did not affect me too much becoz' I am anywayz from a heavily retrogressed country and I was stuck in the first stage rather than the third. But I can imagine the anxiety and plight of others, that were in a simialr situation, from countries that are "Current".

[mysati]

kd,

You beat me to it!

I am still reading it, but some interesting things in there. It also discusses the Backlog Reduction efforts. Here are some selected snippets:

Another interesting snippet, confirming what all of you gurus have been mentioning frequently in this forum...


In FY 2010 employers filed 43,984 applications, a 28 percent decrease from FY 2009 in which 60,977 applications were filed. The decrease in application filings may reflect, in part, the impact of unemployment in the U.S. and the consequent ability of employers to find willing and qualified U.S. workers to fill their employment needs.

[qblogfan]

Several months ago we saw NVC notice with PD April 2008, that's the latest I have ever seen.


Friends,

Can anyone tell me till when did the NVC accepted the fee ?? Sometime Sep 2008 if I'm not wrong ???

[qblogfan]

The Nov. VB will bring the total demand of EB2 C&I for FY 2012 from about 10k to about 17k.

The future movement will be based on how much extra demand Mr.CO wants. In
my opinion he needs to bring 40k into his inventory if he wants to stay in
the safe side. Last year the total SOFAD is more than 30k. If he only brings
in 30k, it will be dangerous for FY 2012. He needs at least 10k buffer zone.

Gurus and folks, please post your opinions!


The data below is copied from Spectator. Credit to Spectator.

SOFAD=EB2 C&I visa number plus Spillover.

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in
June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required
to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[soggadu]

Congrats Soggadu. This is making me feel so better (what made you say sep 2008). mine is Aug 2008.

I said sep 2008 because there were some ramblings about people getting NVC receipts who are in Sep 08... I still strongly believe this is all as per their plan (NVC receipts are a proof)...stay tuned and you will hit it....

[imdeng]

Wow - the report has some interesting tidbits. This is common knowledge now, but it is still shocking to me how much the incoming talent pool to USA in high-tech is now almost all from India. Largest job category for China and South Korea are Chefs and Cooks (see country summary in the Appendix D) - no disrespect to Chefs and Cooks but if USA is attracting more Chefs/Cooks from China and Korea than Engineers, Scientists and Researchers then something has gone quite wrong in the world.

I am sure it is a function of enhanced opportunities for educated workforce in China and Korea. If India makes the same transition then what will happen? We live in interesting times, don't we?


http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/OFLC_2010_Master_for_WebSite_StateFix.pdf

[soggadu]

Wow - the report has some interesting tidbits. This is common knowledge now, but it is still shocking to me how much the incoming talent pool to USA in high-tech is now almost all from India. Largest job category for China and South Korea are Chefs and Cooks (see country summary in the Appendix D) - no disrespect to Chefs and Cooks but if USA is attracting more Chefs/Cooks from China and Korea than Engineers, Scientists and Researchers then something has gone quite wrong in the world.

I am sure it is a function of enhanced opportunities for educated workforce in China and Korea. If India makes the same transition then what will happen? We live in interesting times, don't we?

very interesting observation...

[tnayar78]

Friends,

Can anyone tell me till when did the NVC accepted the fee ?? Sometime Sep 2008 if I'm not wrong ???

this was the last one i found on IV June08 from a post by user named vick looks like legit, not sure if there are any after that.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/2660190-post2539.html
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/2671540-post2590.html

[imdeng]

So for 40K inventory with 5K porting, we are looking at June/July 2008 - and this level needs to be hit by Jan 2012.

If we manage to clear all that inventory in 2012 spillover season - then to build another 30K inventory minus 5K spillover, the PD will need to go forward by 12 months (assuming 2K per month) - so we are looking at a PD of June/July 2009 by Jan 2013. However, later 2008 and 2009 are very weak in demand numbers - so assuming only 1.5K per month demand in 2009, we will reach Aug 2009. Now, since my PD is Aug 2009 I will consider this scenario completely realistic (ah... it happens to be quite optimistic but whateves) and declare that my PD will be current in Jan 2013. I will now plan rest of my life around it.

Questions for Spec and other gurus (and BTW - Thank You Spec for your awesome work. USCIS should hire you as a consultant and give you gobs of money to help them make their processes more efficient):
1. There was an argument that since so many people fast tracked their applications to get in the 07/07 rush, we should see lower than average demand for months following 07/07. This is not coming out in the data currently, right?
2. I think the abandonment rate of I-140 for people with PD after 07/07 might be higher since they did not have the safety cover of EAD/AP. That might bring the demand levels down a bit, right?


The Nov. VB will bring the total demand of EB2 C&I for FY 2012 from about 10k to about 17k.

The future movement will be based on how much extra demand Mr.CO wants. In
my opinion he needs to bring 40k into his inventory if he wants to stay in
the safe side. Last year the total SOFAD is more than 30k. If he only brings
in 30k, it will be dangerous for FY 2012. He needs at least 10k buffer zone.

Gurus and folks, please post your opinions!


The data below is copied from Spectator. Credit to Spectator.

SOFAD=EB2 C&I visa number plus Spillover.

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in
June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required
to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[qesehmk]

It is a function of enhanced opportunities in China and Korea & language barriers in those countries that not many knowledge workers can / are willing to come to US.

Even from India you see more people from particular states coming to US than others. I think talent is everywhere and when the local economy doesn't offer that talent many avenues. .... talent seeks to spread out to other regions. This true within a country or across countries.


Wow - the report has some interesting tidbits. This is common knowledge now, but it is still shocking to me how much the incoming talent pool to USA in high-tech is now almost all from India. Largest job category for China and South Korea are Chefs and Cooks (see country summary in the Appendix D) - no disrespect to Chefs and Cooks but if USA is attracting more Chefs/Cooks from China and Korea than Engineers, Scientists and Researchers then something has gone quite wrong in the world.

I am sure it is a function of enhanced opportunities for educated workforce in China and Korea. If India makes the same transition then what will happen? We live in interesting times, don't we?

[druvraj]

Teddy and All who are current,

Congrats on you becoming current. Hope you get your GC as well.

Q, Teddy ,Spec and other gurus has there been any change in your predictions after the release of this bulletin?

[Pedro Gonzales]

Wow - the report has some interesting tidbits. This is common knowledge now, but it is still shocking to me how much the incoming talent pool to USA in high-tech is now almost all from India. Largest job category for China and South Korea are Chefs and Cooks (see country summary in the Appendix D) - no disrespect to Chefs and Cooks but if USA is attracting more Chefs/Cooks from China and Korea than Engineers, Scientists and Researchers then something has gone quite wrong in the world.

I am sure it is a function of enhanced opportunities for educated workforce in China and Korea. If India makes the same transition then what will happen? We live in interesting times, don't we?

Not for China. All CS / Electronics / Accounting professions only in the top 5 professions on pg 24. The professions in Appendix D seems to be an error. I believe they've erroneously pasted in S. Korea's data on the China page (they are identical).

One interesting observation was the average wages of the different nations. The UK, Canada and Pakistan all had a $88K to $91K average wage, while India's was at $83K. I think the $5K to $7K differential is completely due to the Indian consultant / body shop effect, a subset that doesn't affect the other nations. If we consider a 50% split between consultants and others, we're looking at a full $10K to $14K less of annual pay for the consultants than they would get otherwise. I would argue that the % of the consultants is actually smaller than 50%, which would make the pay differential even higher.

That brings me to the Chinese. Even though their top 5 professions are all technical, their average pay is only $74K. Is it the effect of the accountants in the list? Do they make that much less then the technology workers? Or are there Chinese consultants/body shops too that no one hears about that is skewing the figures?

[abhinata]

The dates where they are today will not retrogress - at least not until 3 months from now. Rather they could progress 3-6 months.

A movement beyond 6 months is certainly likely to retrogress at some point of time.

More than likely your case is preadjudicated. Its quite likely you will receive GC in hand in 2-3 weeks - especially if you are working for a fortune 500.

Dear Q, How can you be so certain that he will get GC in 2-3 weeks time. Do you think USCIS has enough visa available for all those who become current with PD of Apr-Jul07 and have their case Pre-adjucated as they filed in 07/07.

I am in similar situation as my PD is Jul13 2007 EB2-I, filed I485 in July07 and have approved I-140. I don't know even though I am current, I will be able to get GC in 1 months time. I believe we don't have enough visas to cover everyone who got current.:confused

Any thoughts would definitely help me prioritize my travel and job plans. Appreciate your response.

Thanks

Abhijeet

[grnwtg]

Hi qblogfan,
I thought after yesterday's demand data, we are not sure what was exact number of inventory USCIS has, 8k is reduced to 3k. This 5k has lot of importance, like you i was also telling that they need atleast 35k applications for next year, so this 5k will be crucial if we are going to March'2008 or August'2008.
Apart from as Guru's mentioned whole data we have might changed from the demand data we get after 2 more months.
One more good news is that bulletin did not mention anything about porting data (althought reading their lines might be waste of time)



The Nov. VB will bring the total demand of EB2 C&I for FY 2012 from about 10k to about 17k.

The future movement will be based on how much extra demand Mr.CO wants. In
my opinion he needs to bring 40k into his inventory if he wants to stay in
the safe side. Last year the total SOFAD is more than 30k. If he only brings
in 30k, it will be dangerous for FY 2012. He needs at least 10k buffer zone.

Gurus and folks, please post your opinions!


The data below is copied from Spectator. Credit to Spectator.

SOFAD=EB2 C&I visa number plus Spillover.

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in
June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required
to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[qblogfan]

Yes, the language barrier is definitely a factor. I have been in US for almost ten years, but I don't feel my English is good enough. When I was in my Chinese college, most of my classmates spoke broken English. I started my first English class at age 14, but it was only some basic training, and I never used English before I came to US. I never took any engineering or science class in English when I was there. Indian engineers and scientists speak fluent English and are more connected to the western society. It's a huge advantage in the professional fields.

The second factor is that the eastern asian culture always encourage people to stay home and close to parents. There is a Chinese old saying from 3000 years ago: if your parents are still alive, please don't travel too far. The eastern asian culture always emphasizes people should stay with parents as much as they can and listen to the older people. In movies you can see Korean and Chinese young couples always live with their parents in the same house. It's a good thing, also a bad thing. Because of these culture traditions, people don't explore too much and lagged much behind the western people who explore new things.

The last factor is that it's very difficult for a Chinese national to get a visa to USA. When I came to USA ten years ago, 60% of my classmates got visa denials. All of them had scholarships, but the US embassy just denied their applications for no reason. For the folks in high tech area, it was impossible to get a visa. If they grant you a visa, it is only 3 months valid and 2 entries. It's a lot of hassle to get a visa. Many people are frustrated and gave up their plans to come here.


It is a function of enhanced opportunities in China and Korea & language barriers in those countries that not many knowledge workers can / are willing to come to US.

Even from India you see more people from particular states coming to US than others. I think talent is everywhere and when the local economy doesn't offer that talent many avenues. .... talent seeks to spread out to other regions. This true within a country or across countries.

[qblogfan]

Many Chinese H1B holders' wifes are studying Accounting in USA. There are some Chinese body shops too and they pay them minimum wage like 30k per year. There are many cooks also. Again because of the lanugage barrier, generally Chinese nationals stay in the bottom of the company for a long time. Usually promotions always go to Indian folks. :) The last thing is that many Chinese nationals study biology and chemistry and usually they don't get paid too much. Indian folks work in IT industry and it is very profitable.


Not for China. All CS / Electronics / Accounting professions only in the top 5 professions on pg 24. The professions in Appendix D seems to be an error. I believe they've erroneously pasted in S. Korea's data on the China page (they are identical).

One interesting observation was the average wages of the different nations. The UK, Canada and Pakistan all had a $88K to $91K average wage, while India's was at $83K. I think the $5K to $7K differential is completely due to the Indian consultant / body shop effect, a subset that doesn't affect the other nations. If we consider a 50% split between consultants and others, we're looking at a full $10K to $14K less of annual pay for the consultants than they would get otherwise. I would argue that the % of the consultants is actually smaller than 50%, which would make the pay differential even higher.

That brings me to the Chinese. Even though their top 5 professions are all technical, their average pay is only $74K. Is it the effect of the accountants in the list? Do they make that much less then the technology workers? Or are there Chinese consultants/body shops too that no one hears about that is skewing the figures?

[immi2910]

PERM DATA ANALYSIS

Assumptions:
- EB2IC with a PD up to March 2008 will get GC in FY 2012
- EB2ROW with a PD up to 2010 will get GC in FY 2012
- PERM applications from 2008 & 2009 have been completed by Jun 30, 2011 and the numbers are unlikely to increase
- 90% of PERM applications from 2010 have been completed by Jun 30, 2011
- 80% of all valid PERM applications have I-140 approved (need a better source to estimate this number)
- 70% of all PERM applications are for EB2 (need a better source to estimate this number)
- 2.05 visas used for every I-140 -from http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics)


Data from http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI & verified from http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm
- EB2C with PD 2008 = 4,154*0.75 = 3,116 assuming 25% (PD upto March 2008) get GC in FY 2012 quota
- EB2I with PD 2008 = 23,503*0.75 = 17,627

- EB2C with PD 2009 = 2,290
- EB2I with PD 2009 = 16,450

- EB2C with PD 2010 = 2,481/0.9 = 2,757 (assuming 90% have been approved until 6/30/11)
- EB2I with PD 2010 = 21,840/0.9 = 24,267

- EB2C Total for 2008 to 2010 = 8,163
- EB2I Total for 2008 to 2010 = 58,344
- EB2IC Total for 2008 to 2010 = 66,507

- Visa Numbers needed for 2008 to 2010 = 66,507 * 0.8 * 0.7 * 2.05 = 76,350

- EB2IC visas available = 5,600 / year
- SOFAD(includes PORTING) = 24,400 / year (this has been higher in recent years but as the economy improves it will go down)
- Total = 30,000 / Year

Number of years to move the date to 1/1/11 = 76,350 / 30,000 ~ 2.5 years from end of FY 2012 (9/30/12) = 3/31/2015

Since my PD is June 2011 (EB2I), I guess I will get GC in FY 2016 (i.e. between 10/1/15 & 9/30/16).

I would like to hear from the gurus to see if I am doing this correct.

Is there a place where I can I-140 approval rates for all PERM applications? Can I get a better ratio of EB2 to EB3 applications based on PERM data? Also, I would appreciate if you could comment whether the SOFAD (net of Porting) is in the right ball-park.

[imdeng]

When are we expecting the next I-485 Inventory? I believe the last one was 06/2011 - since its a quarterly report, it should have been out by now.

What are we expecting to see in the next inventory?

[Jonty Rhodes]

PERM DATA ANALYSIS

Assumptions:
- EB2IC with a PD up to March 2008 will get GC in FY 2012
- EB2ROW with a PD up to 2010 will get GC in FY 2012
- PERM applications from 2008 & 2009 have been completed by Jun 30, 2011 and the numbers are unlikely to increase
- 90% of PERM applications from 2010 have been completed by Jun 30, 2011
- 80% of all valid PERM applications have I-140 approved (need a better source to estimate this number)
- 70% of all PERM applications are for EB2 (need a better source to estimate this number)
- 2.05 visas used for every I-140 -from http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics)


Data from http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI & verified from http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm
- EB2C with PD 2008 = 4,154*0.75 = 3,116 assuming 25% (PD upto March 2008) get GC in FY 2012 quota
- EB2I with PD 2008 = 23,503*0.75 = 17,627

- EB2C with PD 2009 = 2,290
- EB2I with PD 2009 = 16,450

- EB2C with PD 2010 = 2,481/0.9 = 2,757 (assuming 90% have been approved until 6/30/11)
- EB2I with PD 2010 = 21,840/0.9 = 24,267

- EB2C Total for 2008 to 2010 = 8,163
- EB2I Total for 2008 to 2010 = 58,344
- EB2IC Total for 2008 to 2010 = 66,507

- Visa Numbers needed for 2008 to 2010 = 66,507 * 0.8 * 0.7 * 2.05 = 76,350

- EB2IC visas available = 5,600 / year
- SOFAD(includes PORTING) = 24,400 / year (this has been higher in recent years but as the economy improves it will go down)
- Total = 30,000 / Year

Number of years to move the date to 1/1/11 = 76,350 / 30,000 ~ 2.5 years from end of FY 2012 (9/30/12) = 3/31/2015

Since my PD is June 2011 (EB2I), I guess I will get GC in FY 2016 (i.e. between 10/1/15 & 9/30/16).

I would like to hear from the gurus to see if I am doing this correct.

Is there a place where I can I-140 approval rates for all PERM applications? Can I get a better ratio of EB2 to EB3 applications based on PERM data? Also, I would appreciate if you could comment whether the SOFAD (net of Porting) is in the right ball-park.

My friend, I am in the same boat as you. My PD is 05/20/2011 (EB2I) and have an approved LC and I-140. Your estimate seems to be correct in my opinion. We probably need to wait till 2016 if nothing happens. But if any immigration reform happens before that (which is possible), all our woes will end and we will get greened before 2016. On the other side, if the economy improves and EB2I and EB2C gets less SOFAD, we will be greened even later than 2016. I am not an expert obviously and perhaps Q, Teddy, Spec or Nishant can throw more light on this.

[imdeng]

Your analysis seems to be in the correct ball park. Unfortunately, the demand decline of late 2008 and 2009 seems to have reversed in 2010 with 2010 demand resembling the dense period of early 2007. If economy picks up, then passing through 2010 will be quite slow.

Do we know how 2011 is holding up as compared to 2010 demand?



Number of years to move the date to 1/1/11 = 76,350 / 30,000 ~ 2.5 years from end of FY 2012 (9/30/12) = 3/31/2015

Since my PD is June 2011 (EB2I), I guess I will get GC in FY 2016 (i.e. between 10/1/15 & 9/30/16).

[srimurthy]

As shared earlier in the blog there is a general 5 year wait for EB2 from PD date.. so a ball park can be if PD is 2010 - GC around 2015
If PD is 2011 - GC is around 2016.

Give or take a year here or there, so we can sleep for three years atleast and then come back and see where we are progressing. Hopefully with 2008 and 09 demang being less we may be able to file and get EAD earlier by an year.


I wouldn't count on immigration reform. What might help is the low demand from EB2C and perhaps EB2-SouthKorea getting retrogressed.

[immi2910]

Your analysis seems to be in the correct ball park. Unfortunately, the demand decline of late 2008 and 2009 seems to have reversed in 2010 with 2010 demand resembling the dense period of early 2007. If economy picks up, then passing through 2010 will be quite slow.

Do we know how 2011 is holding up as compared to 2010 demand?

On the surface 2011 is turning out to be similar to 2010 for EB2 IC but less demand for EB2 ROW so far.

I am looking at PD of 2010 approved in FY 2010 and comparing it with PD of 2011 approved in FY 2011 from http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI

[Spectator]

Wow - the report has some interesting tidbits. This is common knowledge now, but it is still shocking to me how much the incoming talent pool to USA in high-tech is now almost all from India. Largest job category for China and South Korea are Chefs and Cooks (see country summary in the Appendix D) - no disrespect to Chefs and Cooks but if USA is attracting more Chefs/Cooks from China and Korea than Engineers, Scientists and Researchers then something has gone quite wrong in the world.

I am sure it is a function of enhanced opportunities for educated workforce in China and Korea. If India makes the same transition then what will happen? We live in interesting times, don't we?I too think this a mistake for China.

In the main body of the document (page 23) the top professions for China are :

Computer Software Engineers, Applications
Statisticians
Accountants and Auditors
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
Electronics Engineers, Except Computer


Not for China. All CS / Electronics / Accounting professions only in the top 5 professions on pg 24. The professions in Appendix D seems to be an error. I believe they've erroneously pasted in S. Korea's data on the China page (they are identical).

One interesting observation was the average wages of the different nations. The UK, Canada and Pakistan all had a $88K to $91K average wage, while India's was at $83K. I think the $5K to $7K differential is completely due to the Indian consultant / body shop effect, a subset that doesn't affect the other nations. If we consider a 50% split between consultants and others, we're looking at a full $10K to $14K less of annual pay for the consultants than they would get otherwise. I would argue that the % of the consultants is actually smaller than 50%, which would make the pay differential even higher.

That brings me to the Chinese. Even though their top 5 professions are all technical, their average pay is only $74K. Is it the effect of the accountants in the list? Do they make that much less then the technology workers? Or are there Chinese consultants/body shops too that no one hears about that is skewing the figures?qblogfan can probably say better, but a large number of Chinese in the scientific field follow the post-doc route after graduation, moving to Associate Professor, Assistant Professor, etc trying to get a tenure-track position.

The academic world is notorious for the low wages they pay. Just look at the PWD data and search for Assistant Professor! The lowest salaries can be 30k and the median seems be in the 50k range. This is with a PhD as the required educational attainment!

[imdeng]

If EB2 South Korea is retrogressed then they will not be able to consume more than 2800 EB2 visas every year. Currently they get more EB2 visas because they have not hit the 7% overall cap and are part of ROW. When they get out of ROW, they will not be able to consume any spillover since their PDs will be in 2010+.

Do we know how close South Korea is to getting retrogressed?


How would EB2 - South Korea retrogression help?

[Monica12]

You could say that, although I never got a chance to see Spamalot.

Earlier, I was enjoying a Gannet On A Stick! in the sunshine whilst Pining for the Fjords.

Now I will need a good kip after this prolonged squawk, before returning to my job at the Ministry Of Funny Walks. I need to make sure I avoid Doug & Dinsdale Piranha's sharp tongues on the way there. Their Irony, Hyperbole and Pathos are legendary.

Two points, ah, two flats, and a packet of gravel please.

I'd had a lovely supper, and all I said to my wife was 'That piece of halibut was good enough for Jehovah.'

Such blasphemy!

Well that's quite enough of that.
LOL ! Hilarious... Spec, your sense of humor is wonderful :D

[qesehmk]

It amazes me that people feel apologetic about not doing something for which they are not paid. Just kidding - Nishant :)

I am stuck at work in something today, and unable to view forum much.

[rahil1]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

[pch053]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

Congratulations! What is your PD and service center?

[Monica12]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

That is wonderful Rahil ! Congratulations !!!!

[rahil1]

07/02/2007, TSC its in my profile

[Spectator]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!Rahil,

A big Congrats from me as well!

[qesehmk]

Congrats Rahil. Enjoy the freedom!
I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

[rahil1]

Monica, Pch and Spectator... thank you all... I will only believe it when I have the card in my hand...

[mysati]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

Rahil,
Congrats!

[Chilli19]

Petition to get H1 stamping done from within US. Go on and sign the petition to save the trouble of getting stuck with the stupid 221g form during Visa stamping... Please use the link below and create an account to sign the petition.
https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions/!/petition/holders-valid-legal-visas-should-be-able-renew-their-visa-without-having-exit-country/X016NylF

[qblogfan]

Yes, I agree with you completely.

Many Chinese immigrants stay in school for decades. Most of the post docs and professors are not making much money. My friends with Phd in biology and chemistry are making 30k per year. Also professors are not making much, around 50k-70k for assitant professors. It's a cultural thing. People back home admire scholars very much.


I too think this a mistake for China.

In the main body of the document (page 23) the top professions for China are :

Computer Software Engineers, Applications
Statisticians
Accountants and Auditors
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
Electronics Engineers, Except Computer

qblogfan can probably say better, but a large number of Chinese in the scientific field follow the post-doc route after graduation, moving to Associate Professor, Assistant Professor, etc trying to get a tenure-track position.

The academic world is notorious for the low wages they pay. Just look at the PWD data and search for Assistant Professor! The lowest salaries can be 30k and the median seems be in the 50k range. This is with a PhD as the required educational attainment!

[venkimakthal]

Rahil, 05/02/2007 or 07/02/2007?

[immi2910]

If EB2 South Korea is retrogressed then they will not be able to consume more than 2800 EB2 visas every year. Currently they get more EB2 visas because they have not hit the 7% overall cap and are part of ROW. When they get out of ROW, they will not be able to consume any spillover since their PDs will be in 2010+.

Do we know how close South Korea is to getting retrogressed?

I do not believe they can consume more than 2,800 visas even when they are part of ROW. I think they get more visas because of Fall Down from EB1, EB4 & EB5 categories, which I believe will continue even if they fall out of ROW.

All countries get their FD share and the FA (fall across) goes to the country with earliest PD. I don't think South Korea retrogression will have any impact on EB2IC dates.

[soggadu]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

rahil bhai...congratulations... rahil to sahil(shore) pe pahoonch(reached) gaye...

[venkimakthal]

When will be my turn, my PD is 04/08/2008?

[soggadu]

Petition to get H1 stamping done from within US. Go on and sign the petition to save the trouble of getting stuck with the stupid 221g form during Visa stamping... Please use the link below and create an account to sign the petition.
https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions/!/petition/holders-valid-legal-visas-should-be-able-renew-their-visa-without-having-exit-country/X016NylF

awesome...best one...even though some of us will have ead now...lets all support this for our brothers from other mothers...

[rahil1]

Rahil, 05/02/2007 or 07/02/2007?
05/02/2007

[soggadu]

When will be my turn, my PD is 04/08/2008?

Before the end of this FY for sure... puckka...lock kiya jaaye...

[venkimakthal]

Thank you Guru

[rahil1]

rahil bhai...congratulations... rahil to sahil(shore) pe pahoonch(reached) gaye...

thank you bhai... good luck to you..

[Spectator]

I do not believe they can consume more than 2,800 visas even when they are part of ROW. I think they get more visas because of Fall Down from EB1, EB4 & EB5 categories, which I believe will continue even if they fall out of ROW.

All countries get their FD share and the FA (fall across) goes to the country with earliest PD. I don't think South Korea retrogression will have any impact on EB2IC dates.immi2910,

See post #8 here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?6-FAQs) to understand why South Korea are allowed to use so many visas.

[nishant2200]

I think you will surely be current in the next bulletin as USCIS says that there will be more forward movement (even though it might be followed with retrogression). Good luck!

thank you pch053. May you get the email soon informing you that your change of status to permanent resident has been registered!

[nishant2200]

Nishant,
I wish and pray that you along with others who are waiting to file I-485 get current in the next bulletin.
Many thanks to you, Q, Veni, Soggadu, Teddi, Spec, Monica, Kanmani, and everybody else for making this wait bearable and for giving everybody hope (based on good quantitative backing)!!

All the very best!!

thank you. Your username does not hold true any more for you :)

[bieber]

Rahil

congrats,

[nishant2200]

Congrats to all the folks that got current and wishing the best for the ones on the fence. I have a PD of Apr 3, 2008. It's a little nerve wracking with all the predictions pointing towards at the best case scenario of the dates reaching Mar 2008 for FY 2012. I'm also facing the question of whether or not to take up an employment offer and I would NOT be inclined to move even if there is a somewhat reasonable chance that I can file a 485 before Oct 2012. Any suggestions/thoughts? Thanks!

For 4/3/2008, Yes, this exists.

[nishant2200]

You should be able to file in FY 2013 Q1, looking at current way they are doing things.

If you are changing job to a full time position, in a company, that can stand up to EB2 scrutiny and requirements and any detailed audit if needed, and are ready to file for EB2 at the most 6 months after starting if not earlier, I would go ahead. If you change jobs right now, and start EB2 GC again in 6 months, and say your PERM to 140 approval takes a year, you should have an approved 140 by May-June 2013, and at that time, July 2008 has good chance to be current. Anyways if you would stick around, this would be around the time a GC might be expected for you.


Q and other gurus,

I know you've been asked this question a number of times. But my pd is July 2008 and although I know there is slim chance of it becoming current until next year, I wanted to know your thoughts. It is getting difficult with each passing day at work and I have another offer in hand. I am not sure whether to take the risk or hang on a bit longer.

Thnx

[nishant2200]

Friends,

Can anyone tell me till when did the NVC accepted the fee ?? Sometime Sep 2008 if I'm not wrong ???

latemost I have heard is June 2008 of a user on IV.

btw, on ron gotcher's forum: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/visa-dates-movement-and-some-unaswered-questions-and-future-15096/

see his note:

"I don't think that anyone outside of the State Department has a clue as to future cutoff date movement in the short term. There are just too many unknown variables. Perhaps the best indication is the interval we see between when the NVC sends the fee bill and the individual's priority date. Generally, the NVC does not send a fee bill until they estimate that the person's priority date will be current within half a year. I randomly picked three fee bills that we have received in the last few months to get an idea of what the NVC is doing. In April, we got a fee bill for an India EB2 applicant with a cutoff date of September, 2007. In May we got one for someone with a cutoff date in November. In June we got one for someone with a cutoff date in January, 2008. When I get time, I'll go through all of our fee bills and put together a list of the fee bill dates and the corresponding cutoff dates.

Before anyone tries to use this for precise calculations, please understand that the NVC simply makes their best guess. They could be off by months. At the same time, they have access to the best backlog data available."

He is also pointing to a monthly staggered approach co-relation between NVC fee bills and EB2 PDs. Similar monthly staggered approach has been so far in the VB date movements. touchwood.

[nishant2200]

My personal approach is that I will stay put, and when dates get current, will immidiately take an appointment. There is no need to rush. This is not july 2007 where tons of people are calling doctor offiices for appointment.

What I have done in advance is shortlisted the civil surgeon I want to go to. I called up 3 civil surgeons, asked their charges and approach, and really liked one of them's attitudes and have selected him.


My priority date is 12th Dec 2007. I am thinking of going for medicals and get the vaccinations completed now with the hope that my date will become current in the next month or at least in the next 3 months. Do you guys think it is good idea or should I just stay put until I see my dates being current? Any thoughts please?

[nishant2200]

Yes, I think it's good approach being taken by DOS.

Porting is highly dynamic, unpredictable, and constantly occuring phenomena throughout the FY. They should definitely keep the pipeline building seperate from that. They always have the choice of appropriate retrogression to honor porters.

Hi qblogfan,
I thought after yesterday's demand data, we are not sure what was exact number of inventory USCIS has, 8k is reduced to 3k. This 5k has lot of importance, like you i was also telling that they need atleast 35k applications for next year, so this 5k will be crucial if we are going to March'2008 or August'2008.
Apart from as Guru's mentioned whole data we have might changed from the demand data we get after 2 more months.
One more good news is that bulletin did not mention anything about porting data (althought reading their lines might be waste of time)

[nishant2200]

I too think this a mistake for China.

In the main body of the document (page 23) the top professions for China are :

Computer Software Engineers, Applications
Statisticians
Accountants and Auditors
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
Electronics Engineers, Except Computer

qblogfan can probably say better, but a large number of Chinese in the scientific field follow the post-doc route after graduation, moving to Associate Professor, Assistant Professor, etc trying to get a tenure-track position.

The academic world is notorious for the low wages they pay. Just look at the PWD data and search for Assistant Professor! The lowest salaries can be 30k and the median seems be in the 50k range. This is with a PhD as the required educational attainment!

All I can say is I am glad I didn't pursue PhD and started working :D

[nishant2200]

It amazes me that people feel apologetic about not doing something for which they are not paid. Just kidding - Nishant :)

Helping fellow frustrated EB immigrants and learning from them, priceless. For everything else, there's paid work :D

[kd2008]

I believe that if DoS builds up the pipeline sufficiently then from 2012 onwards we should see zero date movement in the last quarter of the fiscal year or quite possibly a little retrogression.

[immi2910]

immi2910,

See post #8 here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?6-FAQs) to understand why South Korea are allowed to use so many visas.

I still do not understand how South Korea retrogression would help EB2IC

[veni001]

I got an email from USCIS that my 485 Application has been approved!

rahil,
Congratulations!

[imdeng]

Since SK is current as part of EB2ROW, they can not receive any spillover. Since they have very little FB visa consumption, they can get more EB2 visas than 2800 that we think as a per country limit. What would help EB2IC is if South Korea's FB usage grows - then they will approach their 7% per country limit and a 2800 visa per EB category will go into effect.

I quoting Spec's link in the previous reply - in 2009, SK had ~14K EB Visa and ~2K FB Visa, well below the ~25K total FB+EB threshold for 7% per country limit. So they are a bit far away from becoming "oversubscribed" (that is the term DoS uses). I checked their 2010 FB usage and it is a paltry 2,592 - so they will continue to consumer more EB2 visas in near future at least.


I do not believe they can consume more than 2,800 visas even when they are part of ROW. I think they get more visas because of Fall Down from EB1, EB4 & EB5 categories, which I believe will continue even if they fall out of ROW.

All countries get their FD share and the FA (fall across) goes to the country with earliest PD. I don't think South Korea retrogression will have any impact on EB2IC dates.

[immi2910]

Since SK is current as part of EB2ROW, they can not receive any spillover. Since they have very little FB visa consumption, they can get more EB2 visas than 2800 that we think as a per country limit. What would help EB2IC is if South Korea's FB usage grows - then they will approach their 7% per country limit and a 2800 visa per EB category will go into effect.

I quoting Spec's link in the previous reply - in 2009, SK had ~14K EB Visa and ~2K FB Visa, well below the ~25K total FB+EB threshold for 7% per country limit. So they are a bit far away from becoming "oversubscribed" (that is the term DoS uses). I checked their 2010 FB usage and it is a paltry 2,592 - so they will continue to consumer more EB2 visas in near future at least.

I get it now.

[03May07]

Congratulations to all those who became current in Nov bulletin. That was released kinda early.

[03May07]

05/02/2007
Congratulations Rahil1.

This means even I would've got it, if I didnt miss the boat then...in...2007.....

Question: Now what happens to your spouse status, after you get your GC? As per my understanding, you must've just filed for your spouse after Oct 1.

[sreddy]

Hello Nishant, I am not familiar with this terminology. What are fee Bills, and what is NVC?

It seems his estimates are closely matching as of today. In May they sent fee bill (what ever that is) for November, and now we are expecting November people to be current in December bulletin, which is about 6 months time after fee bills are sent (matches what he said). If that estimate (should i call it theory?) is right, January bulletin is expected to take us thro Jan 2008 (June to December is 6 months). Can we ask Ron help check what is the latest on Fee bill sent date (if possible in Sept)? After all getting EAD isn't bad.

[PD0607]

Received approval email for myself and my wife last evening :-) My priority date is 6/27/2007.

Q - Thanks for this forum. Have been following you since IV. You and others (Teddy, Spec, Veni and all) provided a good picture through your analysis to all of us.

Good luck to all....

[qesehmk]

This is going to be heck of a weekend then :) Enjoy the freedom! Congrats!

Received approval email for myself and my wife last evening :-) My priority date is 6/27/2007.

Q - Thanks for this forum. Have been following you since IV. You and others (Teddy, Spec, Veni and all) provided a good picture through your analysis to all of us.

Good luck to all....

[veni001]

Received approval email for myself and my wife last evening :-) My priority date is 6/27/2007.

Q - Thanks for this forum. Have been following you since IV. You and others (Teddy, Spec, Veni and all) provided a good picture through your analysis to all of us.

Good luck to all....

PD0607,
Congratulations! Great news to start your weekend.

[venkimakthal]

indiaeb2, Good one

[indiaeb2]

indiaeb2, Good one
I am glad this helped you

[visagcinfo]

I am current with Nov VB. Congrats to those who became current, and others are one step closer.
At last I was able to reach the bottom of this thread just today since Wednesday morning. Some one gave the direct link to the PDF with November VB Wed morning, I started hitting that while reading thru the posts (I guess it had "November" instead of "Nov" - hence the link didn't work).. the posts were growing so fast that I couldn't catch up (while multi-tasking) and I guessed there was something cooking hot. Then, a friend called me and said that I am current.

[qblogfan]

Thanks for sharing.

I think they already decided this plan a long time ago.

I believe in their computer they already decided all the bullitens using some data we don't know.


latemost I have heard is June 2008 of a user on IV.

btw, on ron gotcher's forum: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/visa-dates-movement-and-some-unaswered-questions-and-future-15096/

see his note:

"I don't think that anyone outside of the State Department has a clue as to future cutoff date movement in the short term. There are just too many unknown variables. Perhaps the best indication is the interval we see between when the NVC sends the fee bill and the individual's priority date. Generally, the NVC does not send a fee bill until they estimate that the person's priority date will be current within half a year. I randomly picked three fee bills that we have received in the last few months to get an idea of what the NVC is doing. In April, we got a fee bill for an India EB2 applicant with a cutoff date of September, 2007. In May we got one for someone with a cutoff date in November. In June we got one for someone with a cutoff date in January, 2008. When I get time, I'll go through all of our fee bills and put together a list of the fee bill dates and the corresponding cutoff dates.

Before anyone tries to use this for precise calculations, please understand that the NVC simply makes their best guess. They could be off by months. At the same time, they have access to the best backlog data available."

He is also pointing to a monthly staggered approach co-relation between NVC fee bills and EB2 PDs. Similar monthly staggered approach has been so far in the VB date movements. touchwood.

[tnayar78]

Thanks for sharing.

I think they already decided this plan a long time ago.

I believe in their computer they already decided all the bullitens using some data we don't know.

Fiscal Year: 1992 - Average Movement: -4.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1993 - Average Movement: 28.77 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1994 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1995 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1996 - Average Movement: -14.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1997 - Average Movement: 16.23 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1998 - Average Movement: 17.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1999 - Average Movement: 40.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2000 - Average Movement: -11.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2001 - Average Movement: 23.33 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2002 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2003 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2004 - Average Movement: 12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2005 - Average Movement: -59.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2006 - Average Movement: 31.9 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2007 - Average Movement: 21.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2008 - Average Movement: -12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2009 - Average Movement: 22.07 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2010 - Average Movement: 15.7 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2011 - Average Movement: 11.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2012 - Average Movement: 6.67 month(s)+ X? how much more i think some where between 2-4 months based on trend for past 3 years and number of perm filings

[R080107]

Guys, Nov Bulliten is out. EB2 is 1st Nov!!!

[qesehmk]

JAGO MOHAN PYARE! RDSINGH let us know that 2 days back. But thanks anyway for sharing!!

Guys, Nov Bulliten is out. EB2 is 1st Nov!!!

[Teja9999]

Thanks for the quick response, some one will be monitoring my mail everyday( i hope i wont miss anything) in that case can i postpone my finger print?

[pch053]

Thanks for sharing.

I think they already decided this plan a long time ago.

I believe in their computer they already decided all the bullitens using some data we don't know.

If Ron Gotcher's NVC receipt dates logic hold true, EB2-I/C PDs should move to anywhere around Jan'08 in the Dec bulletin, which sounds quite reasonable at this point of time.

[rdsingh79]

deleted...duplicate post

[leo07]

TeddyK and everyone who became current in November VB, CONGRATULATIONS and Good Luck!

[nishant2200]

GC can be obtained either via AOS (adjustment of Status) or CP (Consular Processing).

AOS is suitable for people already in USA and only their immigration status needs to be adjusted.

CP is suitable for people not in USA and would come to USA when they get green card to start the job being offered in GC.

In case of CP, instead of USCIS, its NVC (National Visa Center) who processes the GC. Typically when they anticipate that the applicant's PD will be current in next 6 months to one year, they send out a fee bill for processing the last stage, and the applicant has to pay fees and start the last stage process of submitting a packet of required documents etc. Once this happens, the applicant becomes documentarily qualified, and when the date really becomes current, the USA consulate in the applicant's home country, schedules an interview him, and if interview passes they grant him green card.

If you see that thread of Ron, you will see he is ill and recovering, and has as of yet, not done further work on tabulating this data and publishing to us.


Hello Nishant, I am not familiar with this terminology. What are fee Bills, and what is NVC?

It seems his estimates are closely matching as of today. In May they sent fee bill (what ever that is) for November, and now we are expecting November people to be current in December bulletin, which is about 6 months time after fee bills are sent (matches what he said). If that estimate (should i call it theory?) is right, January bulletin is expected to take us thro Jan 2008 (June to December is 6 months). Can we ask Ron help check what is the latest on Fee bill sent date (if possible in Sept)? After all getting EAD isn't bad.

[qblogfan]

Thanks guys.

I saw more than 10 EB2-C approvals today. It looks like they are approving many cases right now. Maybe they will use the whole year's quota in this month alone. I don't understand their logic behind this. It's totally random.


Fragomen is big shot attorney. If he says this, it has weight.

rdsingh79, dude, you have in the last few days, contributed utmost significantly. May you win a BMW X5 M series in lottery.

[manubhai]

Big congratulations to all who just became current!!

Nishant... hang in there... and save more money than just for the vaccines... you'll need it throw a party for yourself!

[nishant2200]

zamaane ke saath ashirwaad bhi change ho gaye batao... kahan phooloo phalooo aur kahan BMW jeeto lottery mein :-) ( i cant translate this...)

:) I thought giving him lot of money will create unnecessary tension in life, why not enjoy this wonderful 100k car instead with 3D maps and monster engine.

[TeddyKoochu]

TeddyK and everyone who became current in November VB, CONGRATULATIONS and Good Luck!

Thanks Leo, finally the term PWMB will be history come November, Now Iam trying to get everything together hopefully will try to have my case filed on the 1st. After so many years the boat will finally arrive. It almost feels like getting GC itself, Iam confident I wont have to renew h1 next year now.

[Gclongwait]

My companies’ lawyer (Fragomen) sent out a note to employees with EB2IC priority date after Nov 1 to get ready with I-485 documents (fill in questionnaires etc), as they anticipate the cut-off dates to move forward in coming months. One of my frd with PD in Jan 2008, got such note. I know it is not surprising but just thought about sharing with you guys….

rdsingh, can you find out if someone with a Feb 08 or later PD also get a note.

[venkimakthal]

My companies’ lawyer (Fragomen) sent out a note to employees with EB2IC priority date after Nov 1 to get ready with I-485 documents (fill in questionnaires etc), as they anticipate the cut-off dates to move forward in coming months. One of my frd with PD in Jan 2008, got such note. I know it is not surprising but just thought about sharing with you guys….

Sounds good to me, but I need to wait few more months I believe as my PD is April 8, 2008

[self.coach]

Q, how much will the retrogression be? My PD is 08/20/2009 and I have been praying for EB 2 to be current although not losing my sleep over it.


The dates where they are today will not retrogress - at least not until 3 months from now. Rather they could progress 3-6 months.

A movement beyond 6 months is certainly likely to retrogress at some point of time.






More than likely your case is preadjudicated. Its quite likely you will receive GC in hand in 2-3 weeks - especially if you are working for a fortune 500.

[rdsingh79]

I will try to find out. One other frd with PD in late April 2008 did NOT get the note.


rdsingh, can you find out if someone with a Feb 08 or later PD also get a note.

[nishant2200]

Thank you manubhai. You are doing great job. I have been noticing your efforts on various other forums too for the advocacy.


Big congratulations to all who just became current!!

Nishant... hang in there... and save more money than just for the vaccines... you'll need it throw a party for yourself!

[qesehmk]

I think the chances of category becoming current this year are nil. DoS demonstrated their appetite of gradual movements in Novemeber bulletin.

On 5 year course EB2 will move 1 yr per year. For 2009 please refer to spec's data in facts and data section.


Q, how much will the retrogression be? My PD is 08/20/2009 and I have been praying for EB 2 to be current although not losing my sleep over it.

[ravisekhar]

I will try to find out. One other frd with PD in late April 2008 did NOT get the note.

for the one that got the note. Do you know his exact priority date. the reason i am asking is my priority date is jan 10th 2008.

[valuablehurdle]

Just wanted to share this with folks who are/will be current:
Today I managed to talk to the L2. This is what she said... Once the application becomes current, USCIS sends all the application to DOS for visa allocation. According to her, it is sent on the first day of the month. However, it takes 30 days to get the visa allocated for each application. As and when the visa gets allocated, it gets assigned to an officer in USCIS. He/she reviews the case. If everything is Ok, gc is given. The whole process takes 6 weeks from the 1st of the month it became current. So people who are current in Oct 1 should have GC by
Nov 15th. However, how DOS allocates visa numbers for each application is a mystery....
Mine is still in a pre-adjudication level since 2008 July.... Still waiting for the visa number even though I am current since October 1st.
Good luck to all of you.

[rahil1]

Congratulations Rahil1.

This means even I would've got it, if I didnt miss the boat then...in...2007.....

Question: Now what happens to your spouse status, after you get your GC? As per my understanding, you must've just filed for your spouse after Oct 1.

my wife has always been on her own h1b

[imdeng]

self.coach - my PD is 08/09 as well and my preliminary and very approximate calculations lead me to believe that under most optimistic scenario we should be able to file 485 in Jan 2013. Much depends on how much spillover we get from EB1 this coming year.


Q, how much will the retrogression be? My PD is 08/20/2009 and I have been praying for EB 2 to be current although not losing my sleep over it.

[kd2008]

Folks, please take a look at this thread I have started: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?200-Retiring-in-India

[indiasunil]

Congrats to all who got current in Nov. VB.

Best of luck for the rest ..

Sunil.

[indiasunil]

:) I thought giving him lot of money will create unnecessary tension in life, why not enjoy this wonderful 100k car instead with 3D maps and monster engine.

Nishant - What is your PD ?

[nishant2200]

Nishant - What is your PD ?

11/8/2007

You can surely observe a minute of silence for me if you like.

[indiasunil]

11/8/2007

You can surely observe a minute of silence for me if you like.

No worries man. We will catch our day sooooooon !!..

[pch053]

Folks, please take a look at this thread I have started: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?200-Retiring-in-India
Good and informative thread; thanks for starting!

[mrhyderabad]

Any predictions for PD of 03/06/2009 EB-2 India.

I have been in US for 12 long years and missed one chance to file I-140 for my earlier PD 03/23/2006 as the labor took too long to get certified and when I joined another big 5 consulting firm at that time, the labor came through.

[mygctracker]

There are some memos, think Yates or something, under which one can retain PD. But it is a memo & not Law...I've read forums that many people have used and succeded, so had issues...


everybody...one question...for my good friend....

He is working for a company in civil engg and is having PD of 2009 EB3 with 140 approved 1 year back... Now he want to shift to another company and file in EB2, during this process if his first employer cancels the 140... can he still avail the 2009 priority date for EB2?

[nishant2200]

Fragomen indicate they have significant contacts in DOS, USCIS etc.

http://www.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprGeneralContentFrag.aspx?xpST=ResourceGeneral&key=960eb125-ce7c-4f4b-a67d-4dfb924e7250&activeEntry=bee379b6-7bf4-4ecd-9900-23206c308864

rdsingh79's info seems even better now. rdsingh79, this was told to you by ur coworkers?

[rdsingh79]

His PD is Jan 04, 2008

for the one that got the note. Do you know his exact priority date. the reason i am asking is my priority date is jan 10th 2008.

[Monica12]

Any predictions for PD of 03/06/2009 EB-2 India.

I have been in US for 12 long years and missed one chance to file I-140 for my earlier PD 03/23/2006 as the labor took too long to get certified and when I joined another big 5 consulting firm at that time, the labor came through.
Understand your pain, buddy.. hang in there. Please see the Facts and data section on the forum to get an idea ( obviously thing will change over time). Excellent analysis there by Spec, Veni and others. Also, see this http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011 ( brilliant analysis by our genius "THE" Spectator)

[Reader]

I think its fairly certain that cut-off date will move in early 2008 by Q2 of FY2012. And I understand (having gone through it) that the wait could be nerve wracking. Good Luck.

If they follow the FB model, the dates should move at least couple of months in each of the next few bulletins, it will reach Jan 2008 in the next bulletin itself. But, their disclaimer in this this bulletin states "While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis". I am not sure whether they are saying that they are done with advancing the dates for Q1 and the next movement would come only in Q2 or they are indicating that the dates would not move each and every month towards the end of FY after they get enough inventory.

[suninphx]

Are there any consensus on the numbers being used (For OCt) are from FY2011 or FY2012. I am trying to find out a post from Q in which he detailed a theory about mismatch 5000 visa numbers (based on trackitt data I guess?). Interestingly the demand dropped by around same number.

[Spectator]

Are there any consensus on the numbers being used (For OCt) are from FY2011 or FY2012. I am trying to find out a post from Q in which he detailed a theory about mismatch 5000 visa numbers (based on trackitt data I guess?). Interestingly the demand dropped by around same number.I'm not sure there is a consensus on that to date. Personally, I don't think it is as high as that. We can really only get a better idea when the DOS Visa Statistics are published in January, or details leak just before.

Of the 26 EB2-I approvals to date on Trackitt, the breakdown is as follows:

FY2011 Cut Off Dates ---- 3
FY2012 Cut Off Dates --- 16
Porting ----------------- 7
Total ------------------ 26

[asankaran]

PERM Data Clarification:

I was checking the PERM data posted by "Spec" for month of Jan 07

Jan-07 - 2,595 ------ 29 ------ 17 ------- 1 ------- 3 --- 2,645 --- 9.13% --- 9.13%

Total cases including India, China, EB2, EB3 is 2645.

But if I look at I485 inventory report for Jan 2007, including India, China, EB2 and EB3 the documented demand is 3045. So can we come at some formula like of every PERM would translate to 1.2 of 485. I know this is a deviation from other calculation devised by experts. But can someone help in reconciling the data ?

Thanks,
Arun

[Spectator]

PERM Data Clarification:

I was checking the PERM data posted by "Spec" for month of Jan 07

Jan-07 - 2,595 ------ 29 ------ 17 ------- 1 ------- 3 --- 2,645 --- 9.13% --- 9.13%

Total cases including India, China, EB2, EB3 is 2645.

But if I look at I485 inventory report for Jan 2007, including India, China, EB2 and EB3 the documented demand is 3045. So can we come at some formula like of every PERM would translate to 1.2 of 485. I know this is a deviation from other calculation devised by experts. But can someone help in reconciling the data ?

Thanks,
ArunArun,

It is good thinking and essentially the sort of approach I used when I first started analyzing the figures.

It assumes that the USCIS Inventory is the entire universe of applications, which of course it isn't, and that all applications held by USCIS are in the Inventory.

As an example, Consular Processed applications need to be added to the figures (at different % for EB2 & EB3).

Additionally, the last USCIS Inventory does not include any PWMB, who still have to file an I-485 or CP application. For Jan 2007, that figure isn't very high, but it becomes a factor nearer the end of the current backlog.

Essentially, what I do is very similar when I convert PERM to I-485/CP numbers, but uses a few more assumptions. I've tried to lay them out in this post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011

Welcome to the forum by the way.

[vedu]

Guys,

Recently I learned that effective July 16, 2007, USCIS eliminated LC substitution. Will that have any effect on our current assumptions of PERM to I-140 conversion rate going forward?

Also, prior to July 16, 2007, there was no expiration date for LCs. Since then they have imposed 180 days expiration limit. This may have its own impact.

http://www.visalawyerblog.com/2007/05/lc_substitution_elimination_re.html

[grnwtg]

This information is already counted by our Guru's, please go through

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA-(READ-ONLY)



Guys,

Recently I learned that effective July 16, 2007, USCIS eliminated LC substitution. Will that have any effect on our current assumptions of PERM to I-140 conversion rate going forward?

Also, prior to July 16, 2007, there was no expiration date for LCs. Since then they have imposed 180 days expiration limit. This may have its own impact.

http://www.visalawyerblog.com/2007/05/lc_substitution_elimination_re.html

[vedu]

Ohh Okay. Another thing I was thinking about is porting. Some have predicted that the porting was to the tune of 5000 per year for the last two years. It is actually a good news going forward. The more the porting number in previous years, the better it is now. We will be able to subtract the porting LCs from the total LCs for years 2008, 2009 and 2010.

I am sure Gurus have also taken this into consideration.


This information is already counted by our Guru's, please go through

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA-(READ-ONLY)

[Gclongwait]

PERM Data Clarification:

I was checking the PERM data posted by "Spec" for month of Jan 07

Jan-07 - 2,595 ------ 29 ------ 17 ------- 1 ------- 3 --- 2,645 --- 9.13% --- 9.13%

Total cases including India, China, EB2, EB3 is 2645.

But if I look at I485 inventory report for Jan 2007, including India, China, EB2 and EB3 the documented demand is 3045. So can we come at some formula like of every PERM would translate to 1.2 of 485. I know this is a deviation from other calculation devised by experts. But can someone help in reconciling the data ?

Thanks,
Arun

I had done a sample study for a few months and came upnwith near constant 70/30 eb2/eb3 ratio in the perms and I think a 1.3 to 1.6 perm to i485 rate for eb2. I don't remember how many i485 it came out to but 2500/mnth is too high.

[GhostWriter]

Spec, one question, there is no I-485 approval rate in the assumption list. Is it close to 100% or does it not matter for setting of priority date.


Arun,

It is good thinking and essentially the sort of approach I used when I first started analyzing the figures.

It assumes that the USCIS Inventory is the entire universe of applications, which of course it isn't, and that all applications held by USCIS are in the Inventory.

As an example, Consular Processed applications need to be added to the figures (at different % for EB2 & EB3).

Additionally, the last USCIS Inventory does not include any PWMB, who still have to file an I-485 or CP application. For Jan 2007, that figure isn't very high, but it becomes a factor nearer the end of the current backlog.

Essentially, what I do is very similar when I convert PERM to I-485/CP numbers, but uses a few more assumptions. I've tried to lay them out in this post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011

Welcome to the forum by the way.

[Spectator]

Spec, one question, there is no I-485 approval rate in the assumption list. Is it close to 100% or does it not matter for setting of priority date.GhostWriter,

Clearly it isn't zero, but I don't think it is a very high number.

For practical purposes, I think the 32/28% reduction my figures already assume covers it.

There aren't that many reasons to deny an I-485. In many cases, the person could still CP instead, or clear the problem and reapply. For example if they have more than 180 days Status Violations/Unauthorized Employment.

For some it might be more difficult to CP, since AC21 doesn't apply to CP. In that case, they would have to get a new PERM and I-140 approval for the job they had moved to, assuming the original job offer no longer exists. They would still retain the original PD.

Even if that is the case, eventually I think most people will become an LPR, so the numbers become even smaller.

I hope that answers your question.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Spec, this is helpful. Good to know that it is not high, would have been quite cruel to wait so long for anything less than a certain outcome :)

immi2910, asankaran (Arun) - There is a cool observation that Veni had observed in 2011 posts. The product of the three multipliers (EB2/Total Perm, I-140 approval rate, Visas per I-140) comes out to be close to 1.
Spec's assumptions page has it close to 0.9 and immi2910's post on page 22 of this forum has it close to 1.1 so 1 is a convenient and not so bad approximation.
So if someone needed to have a rough estimate of time before their priority date became current a simple and dirty way is to lookup the number of people in front of you using PERM data posted by Spec and Veni (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) and divide it by (SOFAD estimate + 5600). To make the approximation better you can add a porting estimate (6000) to the numerator.
Nothing fancy here Time (in years) = Demand / Supply per year
The analysis done by all the gurus makes it simple to use a multiplier of 1 for newbies like me :) Just thought someone might find it useful.


GhostWriter,

Clearly it isn't zero, but I don't think it is a very high number.

For practical purposes, I think the 32/28% reduction my figures already assume covers it.

There aren't that many reasons to deny an I-485. In many cases, the person could still CP instead, or clear the problem and reapply. For example if they have more than 180 days Status Violations/Unauthorized Employment.

For some it might be more difficult to CP, since AC21 doesn't apply to CP. In that case, they would have to get a new PERM and I-140 approval for the job they had moved to, assuming the original job offer no longer exists. They would still retain the original PD.

Even if that is the case, eventually I think most people will become an LPR, so the numbers become even smaller.

I hope that answers your question.

[asankaran]

Thanks Spec for the clarification. I tried to apply the data and formula for the month of August 2007.

"60% EB2 PERM Certifications
20% denial rate at I-140 stage
2.05 dependent ratio
85% of PD2007 applications remain and 90% of PD2008 applications remain."

As per PERM data
Aug-07 --- 750 --- 1,189 ------ 251 ----- 85 ------- 8 --- 2,283

So if apply the assumption ((2283*.6)*8)*2.05 = 2246.47 * .85 = 1909

If I look at the chart Cut off Dates for various Levels in August 2007 without porting it is at 10302. Now if I add this number 1909 should it not be 12211. Instead I see it at 12475 on Sept 1. Is there is something I am missing ? I like all the assumptions you have included, hope the dependency factor is less.

I would like to use this data in finally creating a sort of inventory report and compare it with one released by USCIS later at the end of this year. If there are startling gaps then we can use that information to get the attention of the authorities.

Thanks again for all your effort.
Arun

Arun,

It is good thinking and essentially the sort of approach I used when I first started analyzing the figures.

It assumes that the USCIS Inventory is the entire universe of applications, which of course it isn't, and that all applications held by USCIS are in the Inventory.

As an example, Consular Processed applications need to be added to the figures (at different % for EB2 & EB3).

Additionally, the last USCIS Inventory does not include any PWMB, who still have to file an I-485 or CP application. For Jan 2007, that figure isn't very high, but it becomes a factor nearer the end of the current backlog.

Essentially, what I do is very similar when I convert PERM to I-485/CP numbers, but uses a few more assumptions. I've tried to lay them out in this post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?172-Cut-Off-Dates-in-FY2012-for-Levels-of-SOFAD-amp-Porting-Cases-Not-Approved-in-FY2011

Welcome to the forum by the way.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for the clarification. I tried to apply the data and formula for the month of August 2007.

"60% EB2 PERM Certifications
20% denial rate at I-140 stage
2.05 dependent ratio
85% of PD2007 applications remain and 90% of PD2008 applications remain."

As per PERM data
Aug-07 --- 750 --- 1,189 ------ 251 ----- 85 ------- 8 --- 2,283

So if apply the assumption ((2283*.6)*8)*2.05 = 2246.47 * .85 = 1909

If I look at the chart Cut off Dates for various Levels in August 2007 without porting it is at 10302. Now if I add this number 1909 should it not be 12211. Instead I see it at 12475 on Sept 1. Is there is something I am missing ? I like all the assumptions you have included, hope the dependency factor is less.

I would like to use this data in finally creating a sort of inventory report and compare it with one released by USCIS later at the end of this year. If there are startling gaps then we can use that information to get the attention of the authorities.

Thanks again for all your effort.
ArunArun,

Another good question.

I don't think you are necessarily missing anything. Your calculation is correct.

The Cut Off Dates chart uses a combination of known backlog from the DOS Demand figures (prorated to the monthly splits in the USCIS Inventory, which is slightly higher) and adds PWMB based on PERM using the formula above.

PWMB are defined as those whose PERM was Certified after August 17, 2007 and therefore could not have filed under the July 2007 VB. August 2007 is therefore a month where the figures are a combination of those known and those calculated.

I would have been amazed if the figures had matched exactly. It is within about 2%, which I would deem more than acceptable.

Whilst we all try our best, do realize that it is a fairly inexact science, because the data isn't great or necessarily complete.

It probably is worth reiterating to people that potential error margins are quite high, due to having to make multiple assumptions. That is why I didn't want to introduce another one for I-485 denial rate.

The numbers should be treated as qualitative and indicative, rather than quantitative.

I really don't mind if people don't agree with the assumptions, because their own might equally be correct.

On a limited basis, if someone has a strong opinion about some different numbers for the assumptions (with some explanation as to why), I am happy to run those figures and report the result to them.

Truthfully, no-one knows the real number. If they claim otherwise, they are either a liar or deluded :D. I certainly don't.

All I try to do is put my best thoughts out there, with some explanation of how the figures were arrived at.

PS - That reminds me, I need to upload some very small changes to the figures. For the technically minded, it is the difference between half of April and the 16 days that are actually left. It is only 28, but the numbers posted on the forum are different from those in my spreadsheet.

[asankaran]

Thanks, Spec. Now I understand the whole calculation process. Though I agree with the whole assumption application, my gut feeling says that they could drastically change as we are dealing with humans as X-factor.

It would become more clear once we get the demand details from July 2007 to Nov 2007. Probably then you could update the assumptions and re-run the report.


Arun,

Another good question.

I don't think you are necessarily missing anything. Your calculation is correct.

The Cut Off Dates chart uses a combination of known backlog from the DOS Demand figures (prorated to the monthly splits in the USCIS Inventory, which is slightly higher) and adds PWMB based on PERM using the formula above.

PWMB are defined as those whose PERM was Certified after August 17, 2007 and therefore could not have filed under the July 2007 VB. August 2007 is therefore a month where the figures are a combination of those known and those calculated.

I would have been amazed if the figures had matched exactly. It is within about 2%, which I would deem more than acceptable.

Whilst we all try our best, do realize that it is a fairly inexact science, because the data isn't great or necessarily complete.

It probably is worth reiterating to people that potential error margins are quite high, due to having to make multiple assumptions. That is why I didn't want to introduce another one for I-485 denial rate.

The numbers should be treated as qualitative and indicative, rather than quantitative.

I really don't mind if people don't agree with the assumptions, because their own might equally be correct.

On a limited basis, if someone has a strong opinion about some different numbers for the assumptions (with some explanation as to why), I am happy to run those figures and report the result to them.

Truthfully, no-one knows the real number. If they claim otherwise, they are either a liar or deluded :D. I certainly don't.

All I try to do is put my best thoughts out there, with some explanation of how the figures were arrived at.

PS - That reminds me, I need to upload some very small changes to the figures. For the technically minded, it is the difference between half of April and the 16 days that are actually left. It is only 28, but the numbers posted on the forum are different from those in my spreadsheet.

[qblogfan]

guys, I saw a huge number of approvals of EB2-C on mitbbs, at least 20-30. I think Mr.Co is planning to approve all the old cases before this end of year. I don't know what kind of visa numbers he is using, and I don't understand how he can assign so many visa numbers in the first month of this FY. It looks werid, but I hope all the old cases can be approved and the VB continues to move forward!

[nishant2200]

Yeah I am bit confused too. Where is he getting the numbers up-front from, what's going on. Defies explanation.


guys, I saw a huge number of approvals of EB2-C on mitbbs, at least 20-30. I think Mr.Co is planning to approve all the old cases before this end of year. I don't know what kind of visa numbers he is using, and I don't understand how he can assign so many visa numbers in the first month of this FY. It looks werid, but I hope all the old cases can be approved and the VB continues to move forward!

[nishant2200]

Yes. My current take is at two months for next VB, unless we see some new data point coming up or some logic by someone which can convince for something else.

and btw, really feel your situation. I am on 11/8/2007 and cursing my luck, you are on 11/1/2007 itself!

I realized for first time meaning of: So Near Yet so Far.

Hello Gurus,

My PD is nov 1 2007 (EB2). Do you guys think I will have a chance to file for EAD next month?

Thanks,

[veni001]

Yes. My current take is at two months for next VB, unless we see some new data point coming up or some logic by someone which can convince for something else.

and btw, really feel your situation. I am on 11/8/2007 and cursing my luck, you are on 11/1/2007 itself!

I realized for first time meaning of: So Near Yet so Far.


Hello Gurus,

My PD is nov 1 2007 (EB2). Do you guys think I will have a chance to file for EAD next month?

Thanks,

Since November VB did not indicated any chance for immediate retro, at least next VB should see some +ve movement for EB2IC.

PS: 1,8,15 and 22 are not good numbers for immigration! :)

[tnayar78]

All GURUS one silly question

For people who are current in November, once they file 485's when would the numbers start showing in Inventory/Demand Data. Some time next year after February after they are processed. Does USCIS maintain any records on number of applications recevied for AOS as they receive tham, or they would start counting only once they are processed.

[skpanda]

Atleast 3 months. AOS applications will be included in the USCIS I485 inventory. They release this every quarter (usually). Last one that was released was as of 26 May 2011. That is of no use to us at this point. A new Inventory report is due any time.

Below is the link to the USCIS inventory:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD



All GURUS one silly question

For people who are current in November, once they file 485's when would the numbers start showing in Inventory/Demand Data. Some time next year after February after they are processed. Does USCIS maintain any records on number of applications recevied for AOS as they receive tham, or they would start counting only once they are processed.

[nishant2200]

there are two different things:

1. Demand Data : here the numbers can only show up once the 485 is pre-adjudicated and documentarily qualified. DOS is owner of this report. This includes CP cases also.

2. I-485 Pending Inventory Report : here the numbers can show up just because an 485 application came in and is awaiting approval, denial or user action based on RFE. This report is updated intermittently but not on a monthly basis, at least for the public consumption. USCIS is owner of this report. This does not have CP as it can't. CP is not AOS with USCIS. It's with NVC.

1 is more accurate for DOS to move dates, 2 is I believe an approximation they may use.

I am not sure what mechanism DOS has put in place to know what is "enough demand", how much to move dates to get that, and how long to continue. For eg, the demand which will be obtained due to Nov VB, will not be known by the time Dec VB is to be released, so how do they go about it.

edit: once they get to know Nov VB demand completely, by the time they go for January VB in December, they can possibly do a simple math that 3.5 months lead to n number of receipts, so how much one week would yield. Also the Oct VB movement has July 15 to August 15 2k7 also in it, which has been out there earlier, but seems to me that DOS is considering that also new demand and thinks most people in that timeline could not apply. just a theory. also 3.5 months, not 3 or 4, means they do have some sort of idea in mind.


All GURUS one silly question

For people who are current in November, once they file 485's when would the numbers start showing in Inventory/Demand Data. Some time next year after February after they are processed. Does USCIS maintain any records on number of applications recevied for AOS as they receive tham, or they would start counting only once they are processed.

[tnayar78]

there are two different things:

1. Demand Data : here the numbers can only show up once the 485 is pre-adjudicated and documentarily qualified.

2. I-485 Pending Inventory Report : here the numbers can show up just because an 485 application came in and is awaiting approval, denial or user action based on RFE. This report is updated intermittently but not on a monthly basis, at least for the public consumption.

1 is more accurate for DOS to move dates, 2 is I believe an approximation they may use.

I am not sure what mechanism DOS has put in place to know what is "enough demand", how much to move dates to get that, and how long to continue. For eg, the demand which will be obtained due to Nov VB, will not be known by the time Dec VB is to be released, so how do they go about it.
Nishant, appreaciate your reply

So as DOS is not sure of the demand that is going to come in for November they have to still look at demand which thay have currently i.e., October and if that is taken as baseline dates should move by 3-3.5 months or could it be other way as dates are moved by 3.5 months already they would wait for couple of months and start moving for 6-7 months in consecutinve bulletins as it was done now.

[nishant2200]

I edited earlier post to put forth a theory on this.

Honestly, this is a conundrum. Others chime in if you have some theories or some feelings or logic on this.

I do feel that the earlier they move, there's much better of chances of large date movement, the more they delay and wait, it will be smaller movement.


Nishant, appreaciate your reply

So as DOS is not sure of the demand that is going to come in for November they have to still look at demand which thay have currently i.e., October and if that is taken as baseline dates should move by 3-3.5 months or could it be other way as dates are moved by 3.5 months already they would wait for couple of months and start moving for 6-7 months in consecutinve bulletins as it was done now.

[skpanda]

How much they will move in future is anybody's guess.

practically speaking they should move in next few months rather than wait for 2 months and then move. If they wait for 2 months and then move there are 2 problems,

a. All people who are current will start calling USCIS and their senators about their green cards (even though they know that USCIS is just building pipeline).
b. USCIS will not be able to approve PD wise and will be approving applications randomly.


Nishant, appreaciate your reply

So as DOS is not sure of the demand that is going to come in for November they have to still look at demand which thay have currently i.e., October and if that is taken as baseline dates should move by 3-3.5 months or could it be other way as dates are moved by 3.5 months already they would wait for couple of months and start moving for 6-7 months in consecutinve bulletins as it was done now.

[nishant2200]

Excellent points Sir! Can't disagree with it. Had not thought of b. myself. b. is a very strong point. This is advantage of collective brainstorming.


How much they will move in future is anybody's guess.

practically speaking they should move in next few months rather than wait for 2 months and then move. If they wait for 2 months and then move there are 2 problems,

a. All people who are current will start calling USCIS and their senators about their green cards (even though they know that USCIS is just building pipeline).
b. USCIS will not be able to approve PD wise and will be approving applications randomly.

[Spectator]

there are two different things:

1. Demand Data : here the numbers can only show up once the 485 is pre-adjudicated and documentarily qualified. DOS is owner of this report. This includes CP cases also.

2. I-485 Pending Inventory Report : here the numbers can show up just because an 485 application came in and is awaiting approval, denial or user action based on RFE. This report is updated intermittently but not on a monthly basis, at least for the public consumption. USCIS is owner of this report. This does not have CP as it can't. CP is not AOS with USCIS. It's with NVC.

1 is more accurate for DOS to move dates, 2 is I believe an approximation they may use.

I am not sure what mechanism DOS has put in place to know what is "enough demand", how much to move dates to get that, and how long to continue. For eg, the demand which will be obtained due to Nov VB, will not be known by the time Dec VB is to be released, so how do they go about it.Just to add a little information, which might be useful.

For the USCIS Inventory, USCIS have previously stated in a reply to the Ombudsman that an I-485 is only shown in the Inventory IF the underlying I-140 supporting it is APPROVED.

Given that most new filings of I-485 by EB2-IC will already have an approved I-140, they should appear in the numbers very quickly, although the Report isn't published very often, I would hope that these numbers are shared with DOS on a regular basis.

Of course, the Demand Data is a totally different situation; that needs the I-485 to be adjudicated and a lot of new approvals will never appear on any Demand Data Report. I don't think that is going to be very useful at all.

[yesman]

As long as you have EAD or H1 you can join anytime. Or you can join after obtaining GC.



Yours is a bit long shot to get GC this year. But its quite possible that you may be able to file 485 this year (i.e. 2012)

Thanks Q, When you say 2012 is that FY 2012 or merely calendar year 2012? What I'm asking is will I have to wait for 2013 quota before the dates progress into Apr 2008? Or will it happen in the forthcoming 3-4 months?

On a general note, it would be very helpful to capture in the beginning of the thread what the Guru's expect the movement to be each month going forward for the next 10-12 months with some explanation of the rationale behind the thinking.

For example:
Nov 2011 to March 2012 - Dates will reach March 2008 to build demand pipeline
Apr 2012 to June 2012 Dates will retrogress to somewhere between Nov 2007 to Feb 2008
July 2012 to Sep 2012 - Dates will start to move again?

Obviously the dates and predictions in my example may be completely bogus but that's where your extensive experience in analyzing the models would help and make the predictions closer to reality. Thanks!

[yesman]

For 4/3/2008, Yes, this exists.
Thanks Nishant! Can you or someone throw some light on when I'd get to file 485 if I miss it before Mar 2012 when the pipeline is being built up. Will I have to wait till after August 2012? Any predictions for what will be the progression of events for people whose dates don't become current in the next few months before the dates retrogress again would be helpful. Thanks again!

[nishant2200]

Thanks Nishant! Can you or someone throw some light on when I'd get to file 485 if I miss it before Mar 2012 when the pipeline is being built up. Will I have to wait till after August 2012? Any predictions for what will be the progression of events for people whose dates don't become current in the next few months before the dates retrogress again would be helpful. Thanks again!

April 2008 is the last month that falls into the 25k SOFAD + 5k buffer sceanario. I am not taking into account Porting. I don't think DOS should take porting into account when making pipeline, as porting is just unpredictable and random. Unfortunately April 2008 also falls into the buffer range.

For April 2008 AOS people to have a real chance of getting a GC in FY 2012, they have to get (scramble in) their applications in at least by Q3 mid or ending. Now how will they achieve that.

Considering that for just example sake: they have indeed somehow reserved 5400 visa numbers for the Oct VB move to July 15th 2007, and they don't consider people in July 15th 2007 to August 17th 2007 to be existing demand i.e. most of them could not apply last time around and missed the bus.

Then as skpanda pointed out earlier above, due to the reason a. and more due to b., they really have only 3-4 months max to have new intake taken in, before these cases also become ripe. Technically, once your 485 falls outside of the processing times advertised by the service center, you can call and ask about status and what's going on.

Now to counter that, I think they really might release visa numbers out of those 5400 plus any quarterly spillover or any hidden FB spillover which we don't know yet (I really dont know where they are going to get these numbers from, but seems they do have them or are pretty sure of a pathway to have them in Q1), to the easily approvable demand of April 15th 2007 to July 15th 2007, and by the time the newer 485s become ripe and even if USCIS offier sends file to ask for visa number, they just genuinely dont have any number allocated, instead they will put that file into their documentarily qualified queue and show up in demand data, and won't be able to approve 485 randomly without ordering of PD. Maybe that is why we are seeing a lot of approvals already for people who became current in Oct VB, i.e. they really want to use up that 5,400 visa numbers fast.

I personally have not completely understood the gameplan of DOS. I did point out that in FB based last FY, F2A category they played similar idea, they moved in Q1, grabbed inventory and then retrogressed back. Similar reasons were cited in few of those VB, that they are moving to generate demand and at some point it will retrogress. The puzzle is that in FB, they have a much better idea on docuentarily qualified demand because most of those cases are CP and is handled by NVC. For EB, most of the applications are AOS, and until a person applies for AOS, you never really know.

These are obviously some thoughts, you are all free to enhance to these thoughts, point out fallacies, or propose your theories.

[sandeep11]

Nishant,

True, even I was thinking the same, Why Nov1 and why 3.5 months ( and not 3 or 4 ), somehow I believe they have something cooking with the numbers.

But if we think on the positive note:

- they accepted that they would move the dates further
- They wouldn't get the count for Nov VB until end of November, hence they would move the dates further (atleast the next VB)

-Sandy






I edited earlier post to put forth a theory on this.

Honestly, this is a conundrum. Others chime in if you have some theories or some feelings or logic on this.

I do feel that the earlier they move, there's much better of chances of large date movement, the more they delay and wait, it will be smaller movement.

[yesman]

April 2008 is the last month that falls into the 25k SOFAD + 5k buffer sceanario. I am not taking into account Porting. I don't think DOS should take porting into account when making pipeline, as porting is just unpredictable and random. Unfortunately April 2008 also falls into the buffer range.

For April 2008 AOS people to have a real chance of getting a GC in FY 2012, they have to get (scramble in) their applications in at least by Q3 mid or ending. Now how will they achieve that.

Considering that for just example sake: they have indeed somehow reserved 5400 visa numbers for the Oct VB move to July 15th 2007, and they don't consider people in July 15th 2007 to August 17th 2007 to be existing demand i.e. most of them could not apply last time around and missed the bus.

Then as skpanda pointed out earlier above, due to the reason a. and more due to b., they really have only 3-4 months max to have new intake taken in, before these cases also become ripe. Technically, once your 485 falls outside of the processing times advertised by the service center, you can call and ask about status and what's going on.

Now to counter that, I think they really might release visa numbers out of those 5400 plus any quarterly spillover or any hidden FB spillover which we don't know yet (I really dont know where they are going to get these numbers from, but seems they do have them or are pretty sure of a pathway to have them in Q1), to the easily approvable demand of April 15th 2007 to July 15th 2007, and by the time the newer 485s become ripe and even if USCIS offier sends file to ask for visa number, they just genuinely dont have any number allocated, instead they will put that file into their documentarily qualified queue and show up in demand data, and won't be able to approve 485 randomly without ordering of PD. Maybe that is why we are seeing a lot of approvals already for people who became current in Oct VB, i.e. they really want to use up that 5,400 visa numbers fast.

I personally have not completely understood the gameplan of DOS. I did point out that in FB based last FY, F2A category they played similar idea, they moved in Q1, grabbed inventory and then retrogressed back. Similar reasons were cited in few of those VB, that they are moving to generate demand and at some point it will retrogress. The puzzle is that in FB, they have a much better idea on docuentarily qualified demand because most of those cases are CP and is handled by NVC. For EB, most of the applications are AOS, and until a person applies for AOS, you never really know.

These are obviously some thoughts, you are all free to enhance to these thoughts, point out fallacies, or propose your theories.

Hi Nishanth, Thanks for the rather detailed response. I've had to go over your response a couple of time to kinda understand since I'm very green when it comes to some of the abbreviations that are frequently used in this forum :)

But my understanding is that most of your email is talking about the possibility of getting a GC in FY 2012. My concern is more about being able to submit a 485 and how soon I would be able to do that. The motivation is to be able to submit the 485 and be in a position to switch employers 6 months from that day. I have a much higher tolerance towards actually waiting for the GC once the 485 is filed.

I realize that Apr 2008 is in the buffer zone and that DOS might move the cutoff dates just short of that by Mar 2012. And then the dates may even retrogress. But my question what happens after that? When do the dates start moving again?

[nishant2200]

Hi Nishanth, Thanks for the rather detailed response. I've had to go over your response a couple of time to kinda understand since I'm very green when it comes to some of the abbreviations that are frequently used in this forum :)

But my understanding is that most of your email is talking about the possibility of getting a GC in FY 2012. My concern is more about being able to submit a 485 and how soon I would be able to do that. The motivation is to be able to submit the 485 and be in a position to switch employers 6 months from that day. I have a much higher tolerance towards actually waiting for the GC once the 485 is filed.

I realize that Apr 2008 is in the buffer zone and that DOS might move the cutoff dates just short of that by Mar 2012. And then the dates may even retrogress. But my question what happens after that? When do the dates start moving again?

Dates move again like this FY, in the beginning of FY 2013. They are going to set a precedent this FY 2012 for this situation.

If you get lucky, and they find out in Q4 that there is lot of excess visas and not enough demand, they may move dates far into 2008 so that they can approve few hundred CP cases. In that case many people would be able to file 485.

[yesman]

Dates move again like this FY, in the beginning of FY 2013. They are going to set a precedent this FY 2012 for this situation.

If you get lucky, and they find out in Q4 that there is lot of excess visas and not enough demand, they may move dates far into 2008 so that they can approve few hundred CP cases. In that case many people would be able to file 485.

Thank's for clarifying that! That's what I was looking for. It's probably an obvious thing for someone that has been following the movement for a while but like I said, I'm pretty new here. Also in the context of this discussion does Q4 start in July or Oct?

[nishant2200]

Thank's for clarifying that! That's what I was looking for. It's probably an obvious thing for someone that has been following the movement for a while but like I said, I'm pretty new here. Also in the context of this discussion does Q4 start in July or Oct?

Q4 FY 2012 is: July 2012, August 2012, September 2012.

[imdeng]

This has been a frequent argument that USCIS is unable to do FIFO - and while this might have been true before, I am not sure whether this hold true now. Do we have continuing evidence of it? I would imagine that in today's automated environment, it should not be difficult to enforce a non-random priority procedure.

It would be fair for USCIS to consider the batch of 485s that come after a PD extension on the basis of the receipt date of 485. I hope they do that.



b. USCIS will not be able to approve PD wise and will be approving applications randomly.