EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[veni001]

qbf
You r right. That's going to happen at some point of time. DOS / USCIS are well coordinated here. As of now the policy is to intake as many as they can and they are in that mode. So they are making up stories to fit that strategy. Sooner or later this party is going to end and good (oops bad) old days of retrogression will be here. I know this is not going to go well with a lot of folks. But hey we are not the ones to play to the gallery. Our objective is to bring clarity ... not exuberance.


Yes, you are exactly right. I think all these stories are made up because they need excuces to move PD forward.

I am glad many folks get a opportunity to get EAD/AP. I hope all of us can get out of this dark hole as soon as possible!

One other thing to make a note is revenue requitement to USCIS for FY-2012, especially Q1 PERM data shows very few certifications whichmeans fewer ROW-M-P new filings!

[vizcard]

While filing for I-485/EAD, do we need to sign or write my name on back of photos?


Our lawyer asked us to write our names, it was in a specific way, dont remember if it was last name, first name or first name last name. We wrote our names as asked.

i had to write name and DOB at the back.

[bangaloreboy]

Hello to all the number-crunchers,
First of all, you are doing a gr8 job analyzing this complex data (or whatever that is available of it)...
Till now I have been following this thread from the sidelines...Its time for me to jump in.
My EB2 PD is 06/30/2010. Yes, right on the bubble! What do you make of '6 months' movement being talked about? Do you think they will move it to Jun 30th or Jul 1st?
Appreciate your comments...

[gkjppp]

Hello to all the number-crunchers,
First of all, you are doing a gr8 job analyzing this complex data (or whatever that is available of it)...
Till now I have been following this thread from the sidelines...Its time for me to jump in.
My EB2 PD is 06/30/2010. Yes, right on the bubble! What do you make of '6 months' movement being talked about? Do you think they will move it to Jun 30th or Jul 1st?
Appreciate your comments...

Chances are high, you will be current in Mar bulletin.

[Kanmani]

The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf


Hello to all the number-crunchers,
First of all, you are doing a gr8 job analyzing this complex data (or whatever that is available of it)...
Till now I have been following this thread from the sidelines...Its time for me to jump in.
My EB2 PD is 06/30/2010. Yes, right on the bubble! What do you make of '6 months' movement being talked about? Do you think they will move it to Jun 30th or Jul 1st?
Appreciate your comments...

[Feb262009]

The past few bulletin pattern is first of the month. You have high chances.


Hello to all the number-crunchers,
First of all, you are doing a gr8 job analyzing this complex data (or whatever that is available of it)...
Till now I have been following this thread from the sidelines...Its time for me to jump in.
My EB2 PD is 06/30/2010. Yes, right on the bubble! What do you make of '6 months' movement being talked about? Do you think they will move it to Jun 30th or Jul 1st?
Appreciate your comments...

[greenercard]

Hi, this may not be the right form for this question. Please move it if needed.

My lawyer (Fragomen) confirmed that they filed my 485 application today. My PD is April 2008. I need to travel to Europe for business purposes Feb 3rd. I do have a stamped H1 visa valid until 2013. When I talked to the attorney she said I have to wait until I get the receipt.

But when I talked to her again, she said it's ok not to get the receipt. USCIS will take a few days to enter my application in the system (before my travel) and I should be ok.

Can anyone please clarify?

[qriousjunta]

Kanmani, Your are definitely an "oracle" , you have tons of documents to refer, wish you are my attorney .

[just_curious]

Thanks for the info, Kanmani.

They should just make to 22nd of that month all the time.. it really hurts when you see your "month" and not the "day" becoming current...

[mysati]

Hi, this may not be the right form for this question. Please move it if needed.

My lawyer (Fragomen) confirmed that they filed my 485 application today. My PD is April 2008. I need to travel to Europe for business purposes Feb 3rd. I do have a stamped H1 visa valid until 2013. When I talked to the attorney she said I have to wait until I get the receipt.

But when I talked to her again, she said it's ok not to get the receipt. USCIS will take a few days to enter my application in the system (before my travel) and I should be ok.

Can anyone please clarify?

I am a Dec filer, travelled 2 days after my app reached them. I did not get any notice before I left the US. I came back after a month and everything has been fine so far (had to reschedule my finger printing appt., though). Hopefully, I should not have any issues, in future. I think if you have a valid stamp, you should not have any problems at re-entry. But it is totally your call.

[bangaloreboy]

Thanks to gkjppp, Feb262009 and especially Kanmani (for the definitive DoS document on cut off dates)...

[vizcard]

Hi, this may not be the right form for this question. Please move it if needed.

My lawyer (Fragomen) confirmed that they filed my 485 application today. My PD is April 2008. I need to travel to Europe for business purposes Feb 3rd. I do have a stamped H1 visa valid until 2013. When I talked to the attorney she said I have to wait until I get the receipt.

But when I talked to her again, she said it's ok not to get the receipt. USCIS will take a few days to enter my application in the system (before my travel) and I should be ok.

Can anyone please clarify?

Not answering your question but Fragomen told me (last week) that my app would be going in "before Jan 27". My PD is Aug 2008. So maybe I'll hear something tomorrow.

[qesehmk]

We have experienced people here Qesehmk, Spectator, Veni, Teddy,Nishant and valuable others who have contributed and compiled piles of information .

...

Friends and Newbies please cleanup the thread by deleting the thanks posts after they are seen .
Kanmani, dont forget yourself! You have been of great help to a good deal of people.

Notes of thanks is one thing we should rather keep. It motivates the person who helped as well as others feel motivated to help each other. After all this is a collaborative forum. All the best.

[greenercard]

Thanks. I assumed coming back into US wouldn't be a problem. I thought I heard somewhere that if you leave the country, it would be considered that I abandoned the application?




I am a Dec filer, travelled 2 days after my app reached them. I did not get any notice before I left the US. I came back after a month and everything has been fine so far (had to reschedule my finger printing appt., though). Hopefully, I should not have any issues, in future. I think if you have a valid stamp, you should not have any problems at re-entry. But it is totally your call.

[srisri]

http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf

On page 10 it says, your application is not considered abandoned if you have a valid H,L,V orK3/K4 visa.

[Kanmani]

http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf

On page 10 it says, your application is not considered abandoned if you have a valid H,L,V orK3/K4 visa.

I am reposting this to make sure better understanding.

The law says one should be physically present inside US to adjust status from non-immigrant to immigrant . You have to prove yourself that you were physically inside while applying for AOS. The process of applying is completed only after the application is received by the uscis . proof? receipt !

srisri

Page 10 of I-485 instructions refers to travel after applying AOS. But most of our members are discussing about travel after posting the I-485 package to USCIS.

[sugada]

Hi Gurus,
My employer and their attorney is taking care of my petition. For my two dependents the same attorney is asking 6K to file I-485, I-131 and I-765 (excluding the USCIS fee). Just to save that money, I was thinking if I can file those forms for my dependents by myself once my I-485, I-131 and I-765 gets approved, Can I do that? I mean is it possible to file for my dependents after my approvals. Can you please explain the process.
Thanks,
Sug

[qesehmk]

You can certainly file yourself now if the dates are current. Waiting till you receive your own GC makes it complicated actually. There is a rule called "follow to join" for spouse where a spouse can arrive in US after the principal applicant gets approved and then the spouse files for "follow to join" which allows the spouse to enjoy same PD and preference as the principal one.

I would imagine the same should be true for dependents. However i am not sure. The worst case is dependents do not enjoy same PD as principal and are categorized under FB.



Hi Gurus,
My employer and their attorney is taking care of my petition. For my two dependents the same attorney is asking 6K to file I-485, I-131 and I-765 (excluding the USCIS fee). Just to save that money, I was thinking if I can file those forms for my dependents by myself once my I-485, I-131 and I-765 gets approved, Can I do that? I mean is it possible to file for my dependents after my approvals. Can you please explain the process.
Thanks,
Sug

[tometukuri]

Just wanted to share the good news. Both me and wife received all the 4 emails wrt EAD/AP Approvals. I guess, now we will need to wait for the GC Approval...finally freedom!

[mysati]

I am reposting this to make sure better understanding.

The law says one should be physically present inside US to adjust status from non-immigrant to immigrant . You have to prove yourself that you were physically inside while applying for AOS. The process of applying is completed only after the application is received by the uscis . proof? receipt !

srisri

Page 10 of I-485 instructions refers to travel after applying AOS. But most of our members are discussing about travel after posting the I-485 package to USCIS.

I agree about the receipt. My lawyer said that I need to leave only after the receipt date. Your receipt date is usually the day after your file reaches USCIS unless it is a weekend (i.e.) if your file reaches them on the first, second is the receipt date (unless second is a weekend) and you can leave on or after the third. But USCIS may send the notice on the fifth or later (and you need not wait for this, to leave the US).

Again these are nuances and may be open to interpretations. Better to avoid travel unless it is absolutely necessary. I will go with what my lawyer says as they have been processing my case since the days of my F1 to H1 conversion.

[mrdeeds]

Just wanted to share the good news. Both me and wife received all the 4 emails wrt EAD/AP Approvals. I guess, now we will need to wait for the GC Approval...finally freedom!

Hearty Congratulations to you and your family!

[ChampU]

If your move is permanent I think it may be an issue from USCIS perspective. If you employer is willing to say its a temporary move then its not an issue.



Q.. Could you please elaborate??

arikepudi's case seems like a classic consulting case wherein you move from one client site to another client site (same employer). The duration of the move is dependent on the duration of the project.
How do you define a temporary move or a permanent move?

[qesehmk]

I think if its a client project related move then by definition it is a temporary move since you may be employed by the employer at a particular employer location from administrative purposes and then you travel to client site as needed.

So your 140 should anyway have the location of the employer office. So I don't think that's a cause of concern. But if the move is to another office of the same employer then the question is - whether it is a temp move or a permanent move.

Even then as long as the employer is willing to say - the job mentioned in 140 is still available whenever 485 is approved and the beneficiary will take up that job in future after approval - there is no harm in any such move.

p.s. - a temp move could be a 6 month move to another office of hte same employer. A permanent would be 12 months or longer IMHO.


Q.. Could you please elaborate??

arikepudi's case seems like a classic consulting case wherein you move from one client site to another client site (same employer). The duration of the move is dependent on the duration of the project.
How do you define a temporary move or a permanent move?

[EB2-03252009]

Hi qeshmk,

Do you any idea about how much time does it take for "follow to join" applicant to get GC? Correct me if I am wrong, follow to join applies to people who get there GC approved and then got married to a person outside US.


You can certainly file yourself now if the dates are current. Waiting till you receive your own GC makes it complicated actually. There is a rule called "follow to join" for spouse where a spouse can arrive in US after the principal applicant gets approved and then the spouse files for "follow to join" which allows the spouse to enjoy same PD and preference as the principal one.

I would imagine the same should be true for dependents. However i am not sure. The worst case is dependents do not enjoy same PD as principal and are categorized under FB.

[kd2008]

Please read http://www.dhs.gov/files/publications/cisomb-roundtable6.shtm


USCIS Service Center Operations (SCOPS) is now moving past the 2007 filing surge cases, and based on movement of the Visa Bulletin cut-off dates and an analysis of completed Form I-140s, USCIS anticipates 14,000 – 18,000 new employment-based adjustment of status filings in the coming months. Long pending applications and petitions are being reviewed on issues, such as: the job offer, changes in derivative beneficiaries, up-to-date biometrics, and needed additional evidence. SCOPS is working with the USCIS Lockboxes to ensure that they have the capacity to accept large numbers of filings, coordinating with the Application Support Centers to ensure that they are ready for increased numbers of biometric appointments, and working with the service centers to ensure that ancillary applications for advance parole and employment authorization are adjudicated in a timely manner. SCOPS also will monitor the number of incoming receipts to better coordinate with DOS.

Looks like the figure is 14K-18K and USCIS has put in some effort in co-ordination. So I will take back my words saying that USCIS may be playing a game and does not know how many applications there are....

18K is a real low number to be honest....and they haven't got that many yet? I find it hard to believe....just thinking out loud.

[qesehmk]

EB2 I think it also applies to situation when the prmary applicant has already applied for 485 and then gets married before 485 is adjudicated.

Hi qeshmk,

Do you any idea about how much time does it take for "follow to join" applicant to get GC? Correct me if I am wrong, follow to join applies to people who get there GC approved and then got married to a person outside US.

[ChampU]

Does this include dependents? I think not. With the dependent factor, you are looking at 36K applications...still quite low.

USCIS Service Center Operations (SCOPS) is now moving past the 2007 filing surge cases, and based on movement of the Visa Bulletin cut-off dates and an analysis of completed Form I-140s, USCIS anticipates 14,000 – 18,000 new employment-based adjustment of status filings in the coming months.

Could it mean that the dates would continue to move until the DD shows 14-18k??

[mrdeeds]

Does this include dependents? I think not.

That's a good question. When they use a term like i-485 application, does it mean 'application for a visa number' or can 1 485 application result in multiple visas? It can I guess.

So following up on that, I am looking at the reports at http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Can anyone please clarify 1) if these reports are just for the field offices or include NSC and TSC as well? Some of the numbers are quite low. So 2) Does this report numbers include dependents as well or is it just primary?

Thank you.

[TeddyKoochu]

Please read http://www.dhs.gov/files/publications/cisomb-roundtable6.shtm



Looks like the figure is 14K-18K and USCIS has put in some effort in co-ordination. So I will take back my words saying that USCIS may be playing a game and does not know how many applications there are....

18K is a real low number to be honest....and they haven't got that many yet? I find it hard to believe....just thinking out loud.

KD thanks for posting this link. As far as I can understand there target is to get a maximum of 18K applications because the probably know that 10-12K SOFAD is burnt already. There is no duration qualified in what range this is expected and there is no date on the document to judge when they have these thoughts. For sure atleast by the Feb bulletin they have crossed the line by double even if one believes in demand destruction. By most estimates the intakes till 01-JAN-2010 would range between 35-40K. It’s a clear case of low demand interpreted as qualified or documentarily qualified is being used to advance the VB's. It’s good for all our friends waiting to file their 485's I sincerely hope this party continues but this could come crumbling down like a pack of cards anytime based on numbers. Also I wonder based on the link you posted earlier EB5 consumption is almost matching the cap thus far and EB1 is moving really fast on Trackitt, so our only hope this year is EB2 ROW which is the only category moving slower as of now.

[kd2008]

KD thanks for posting this link. As far as I can understand there target is to get a maximum of 18K applications because the probably know that 10-12K SOFAD is burnt already. There is no duration qualified in what range this is expected and there is no date on the document to judge when they have these thoughts. For sure atleast by the Feb bulletin they have crossed the line by double even if one believes in demand destruction. By most estimates the intakes till 01-JAN-2010 would range between 35-40K. It’s a clear case of low demand interpreted as qualified or documentarily qualified is being used to advance the VB's. It’s good for all our friends waiting to file their 485's I sincerely hope this party continues but this could come crumbling down like a pack of cards anytime based on numbers. Also I wonder based on the link you posted earlier EB5 consumption is almost matching the cap thus far and EB1 is moving really fast on Trackitt, so our only hope this year is EB2 ROW which is the only category moving slower as of now.

Teddy, thank you for sharing your thoughts and I agree with you. :)

The conference was held on Oct 20, 2011 and the remarks were made on that day. So I am thinking the 14K-18K number would be based at least on the Oct & Nov bulletin.

[mrdeeds]

Teddy, thank you for sharing your thoughts and I agree with you. :)

The conference was held on Oct 20, 2011 and the remarks were made on that day. So I am thinking the 14K-18K number would be based at least on the Oct & Nov bulletin.

Based on your and Teddy's conversation, I infer that the 14k-18k number is the actual visa demand including dependents. Right?

[rdsingh79]

As KD pointed out...this document is from a round table conference held on Oct 10th 2011. So I am guessing "coming months" means Oct, Nov and Dec 2011 (which means 15Apr'07-15 Mar'08).

http://www.dhs.gov/files/publications/cisomb-conference-highlights-2011.shtm


At the bottom "This page was last reviewed / modified on December 26, 2011."

[nathang]

Us is is talking about expected number of filings based on 140 stats. The number of filings is individual, one for each primary and one for each dependent. If what they expect is 14 to 18k, it would be good to know when they made this comment to see whether the number makes any sense.

Now as for other expectation that there should be at least 50k apps, we need to keep in mind that they are all guesses with lot of assumptions, however educated they be.

No offense to anyone, but most of our calculations are based on assumptions like eb2/eb3 ratio, dependent factor, approval rate, DD, multiple filings, abandonment etc.. The only concrete number we have is the number of perms for both eb2 and 3.

Given that we have a lot of assumptions, is it not possible that the filings may actually be lower than what we expect?

Just a thought.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, thank you for sharing your thoughts and I agree with you. :)

The conference was held on Oct 20, 2011 and the remarks were made on that day. So I am thinking the 14K-18K number would be based at least on the Oct & Nov bulletin.


At the bottom "This page was last reviewed / modified on December 26, 2011."


At the bottom "This page was last reviewed / modified on December 26, 2011."

Guys thanks. I believe expecting a 14K filing by the Nov bulletin is actually way over the top. However 14-18K till 15th Mar 2008 seems to be reasonable. By the OR of 1, 8 months should yield 17600 and OR of 0.8 should yield 14080. 2200 per month the monthly assumption and starting date is 15-JUL-2007, for simplicity lets discount the 2K PWMB (Oct Filers).

[Kanmani]

Guys thanks. I believe expecting a 14K filing by the Nov bulletin is actually way over the top. However 14-18K till 15th Mar 2008 seems to be reasonable. By the OR of 1, 8 months should yield 17600 and OR of 0.8 should yield 14080. 2200 per month the monthly assumption and starting date is 15-JUL-2007, for simplicity lets discount the 2K PWMB (Oct Filers).

The minutes of the discussion says an analysis of completed Form I-140s, USCIS anticipates 14,000 – 18,000 new employment-based adjustment of status filings in the coming months .

Moreover we all have given information about dependants who will be filing I-485 with the primary in Part 7 of the I-140 application . So, when they claim they were expecting 14-18K I-485 applications it is clear that dependants are included in their calculations and as per AILA, USCIS received only 50% of what they expected to receive.

Does this mean they received only 7-9K up to March 2008?

[TeddyKoochu]

The minutes of the discussion says an analysis of completed Form I-140s, USCIS anticipates 14,000 – 18,000 new employment-based adjustment of status filings in the coming months .

Moreover we all have given information about dependants who will be filing I-485 with the primary in Part 7 of the I-140 application . So, when they claim they were expecting 14-18K I-485 applications it is clear that dependants are included in their calculations, and also as per AILA USCIS received only 50% of what they expected to receive.

Does this mean they received only 7-9K up to March 2008?

My belief is that by Mar 15 2008 that number should be a minimum of 14K. Some people are filing late as well. The next bulletin or the subsequent one will hopefully give us some insights also lets see the inventory / upcoming demand data.

[nomphy]

Guys, I have a feeling that it is again going to be a 2007 fiasco minus EB3. A big 2012 Eb2 FIASCO. Dates will again retrogress a big time. This is all drama by USCIS to generate revenue. But again great window for all of us to get EADs and next window will again open in next 3-4 years.

[srd4gc]

Hi All, just wanted to share the good news that our EAD and AP applications were approved yesterday and we got email and text notifications today. Thanks to the moderators for starting and running a great thread like this and thanks to everyone for all the number crunching and information sharing. Hope everyone is greened soon.
PD: 11/15/07, RD: 12/06/11, EAD & AP approval emails: 01/25/2011, SC: NSC.

[vizcard]

Folks,
Couple of questions. My 485 etc application will go in by end of this week. I'm primary and my wife is dependent.
1. When can we expect EAD given processing times now?
2. My wife is currently on H1 which expires mid-May (although she has an I-94 on her passport valid till 11/30 from when she was on H4 though). If we don't get EAD by then, im assuming she will need to move back from H1 to H4. How does that impact her 485 application and for that matter EAD/AP as well?

pS: I'll delete this after its answered. Thanks.

[veni001]

Folks,
Couple of questions. My 485 etc application will go in by end of this week. I'm primary and my wife is dependent.
1. When can we expect EAD given processing times now?
2. My wife is currently on H1 which expires mid-May (although she has an I-94 on her passport valid till 11/30 from when she was on H4 though). If we don't get EAD by then, im assuming she will need to move back from H1 to H4. How does that impact her 485 application and for that matter EAD/AP as well?

pS: I'll delete this after its answered. Thanks.

vizcard,
You should expect EAD/AP in about 10 weeks from RD.

If your wife is currently on H1 status, don't count on H4 I-94 date in the passport, she must have received i-94 with new expiration date when applied for COS from H4 to H1.

If she don't get EAD/AP before current H1 i-94 expiration then she need to file for H1 extension or stop working until EAD/AP combo card received.

Even if she don't file for COS to H4 or H1 extension , her say will be legal based on pending AOS.

[Reader]

My PD is Dec 2007 and my H1 is expiring on May 2012. I am considering my H1 extension as a backup based on approved 140 as I am on my 6th year. If I apply for the extension now, I am eligible for only one year extension since the my PD is current. Therefore I am thinking of waiting until April end to see if the data retrogress. If they do and go prior to Dec 2007, I can apply in premium and will be eligible for 3 year extension.

But, based on the approval seen on various forums, folks with October 2007 PD are getting approved and therefore the possibility of dates going back prior to 2008 Jan is unlikely. Is this a general consensus that dates would not retrogress that far back and likely go back somewhere in 2008?

[goforgreen]

We can never predict date movement accurately, for all we know even though there will be very few pre Dec 2007 folks left by May, the dates might go back in 2007 and again start moving based on pending applications and available visas. But either way your logic sounds correct, you will know by Apr 10-12 about May bulletin and you can accordingly apply for H1. But since you have PD of Dec 2007 you are likely to get GC within 6 months so it would not matter if you have 1 year or 3 years H1.


My PD is Dec 2007 and my H1 is expiring on May 2012. I am considering my H1 extension as a backup based on approved 140 as I am on my 6th year. If I apply for the extension now, I am eligible for only one year extension since the my PD is current. Therefore I am thinking of waiting until April end to see if the data retrogress. If they do and go prior to Dec 2007, I can apply in premium and will be eligible for 3 year extension.

But, based on the approval seen on various forums, folks with October 2007 PD are getting approved and therefore the possibility of dates going back prior to 2008 Jan is unlikely. Is this a general consensus that dates would not retrogress that far back and likely go back somewhere in 2008?

[vizcard]

vizcard,
You should expect EAD/AP in about 10 weeks from RD.

If your wife is currently on H1 status, don't count on H4 I-94 date in the passport, she must have received i-94 with new expiration date when applied for COS from H4 to H1.

If she don't get EAD/AP before current H1 i-94 expiration then she need to file for H1 extension or stop working until EAD/AP combo card received.

Even if she don't file for COS to H4 or H1 extension , her say will be legal based on pending AOS.

She cant extend her H1 .. maxed out her 6 yrs and she works in Fashion so they dont really want to sponsor GCs until its a real issue. But basically what im hearing from your response is that even if her H1 expires, we dont need to worry about applying for a COS to H4 and shes legal from an immigration standpoint.

Ideally it'll be perfect if she can continue to work straight through without a break but worst case she'll take time off and then come back with her EAD.

[Transformer]

If I apply for the extension now, I am eligible for only one year extension since the my PD is current.

Where did you get the information that if your PD is current you will get only 1 yr extn? In my opinion, your H1 etn doesn't depend on PD but on the length of the project.

[Reader]

Where did you get the information that if your PD is current you will get only 1 yr extn? In my opinion, your H1 etn doesn't depend on PD but on the length of the project.

I have seen this rule in many places. Here is one of them.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_movh1b.html

[mysati]

Where did you get the information that if your PD is current you will get only 1 yr extn? In my opinion, your H1 etn doesn't depend on PD but on the length of the project.

Transformer,
I guess what you are mentioning is specific to Consulting jobs. If you are a direct, full time employee I do not think there is any mention of any project duration.

[iamdeb]

my I140 is approved with PD as May 2011. My wife's consultancy wants to file for her GC as well. She has her MS from here.
Is it a beneficial to start with her GC process as well? Will it create any problem as I have added her as my dependant in the PERM form.

Thanks,
Deb

[gkjppp]

my I140 is approved with PD as May 2011. My wife's consultancy wants to file for her GC as well. She has her MS from here.
Is it a beneficial to start with her GC process as well? Will it create any problem as I have added her as my dependant in the PERM form.

Thanks,
Deb

1. No issues to start your wife's Perm again.
2. 485 is only stage you need your dependants information/ during Perm/140 its not requied.

[Transformer]

I have seen this rule in many places. Here is one of them.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_movh1b.html

Thank you for sharing the link. This is really useful information.

[manubhai]

I have seen this rule in many places. Here is one of them.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_movh1b.html

My evil head noticed something here.

I just applied for an H1 extension (3yrs requested based on approved I140). But if I become current next month, and my H1 application is looked at "next month" + 1 day, they'll only give me a 1 year extension because I will be current on that day. I am not getting my GC for at least another 18/24 months. So I'll have to re-apply for my H1 extension again in about 11 months!!!! (Yeah... I know I'll have my EAD by then but I still want to have an H1 approved)

I know there's a technical difference between what the language says - "availability of visa numbers" and what I am saying - "I am current", but USCIS wont care.

Just another way to make money from us suckers!!! I never knew they were as evil as I was!

BTW - I hope you are all calling your senators repeatedly to request they support HR 3012. It takes 20 seconds per call.

[psczd4]

Hello manubhai,

I thought of sharing my experience related to H1b extension. I filed for a 3 year extension (regular process) based on my I-140 approval in Aug. 2011. I became current in Nov 2011 VB (PD: Aug. 2007), and filed for my I 485 while my extension was still pending. I was under the same assumption that I will get 1 year extension cuz, I'm current. But received my approval notice in Jan 2012 for 3 years that was requested for. Now waiting for my EAD/AP approval.

Hope this helps.

[vgraj1]

Thanks Kanmani and jackbrown_890 for sharing the link.

[ChampU]

QQ about QSP.. Are the spillover numbers released at the beginning of the Qtr or towards the end? Yesterday a lot of approvals were reported from NSC.. is this increased activity because of spillover numbers or is it normal at this time of the year?

[Spectator]

My evil head noticed something here.

I just applied for an H1 extension (3yrs requested based on approved I140). But if I become current next month, and my H1 application is looked at "next month" + 1 day, they'll only give me a 1 year extension because I will be current on that day. I am not getting my GC for at least another 18/24 months. So I'll have to re-apply for my H1 extension again in about 11 months!!!! (Yeah... I know I'll have my EAD by then but I still want to have an H1 approved)

I know there's a technical difference between what the language says - "availability of visa numbers" and what I am saying - "I am current", but USCIS wont care.

Just another way to make money from us suckers!!! I never knew they were as evil as I was!

BTW - I hope you are all calling your senators repeatedly to request they support HR 3012. It takes 20 seconds per call.manubhai,

You should be fine. It is the availability of visas at the time of filing, not adjudication that is important.

From the May 30, 2008 AC21 Memo (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/Archives%201998-2008/2008/ac21_30may08.pdf)


2. AC21 §104(c) Guidance for Aliens Subject to Per Country Visa Limitations

Pursuant to AC21 §104(c), an alien is eligible for an extension of H-1B status if the alien is the beneficiary of an I-140 petition and would be eligible to be granted immigrant status but for the application of per country limitations applicable to immigrants under INA § 203(b)(1), (2) or (3). Despite the title of AC21 §104(c), referring to “one-time” protection, USCIS may grant such H-1B extensions, in a maximum of three year increments, until such time as the alien’s application for adjustment of status has been processed and a decision made thereupon.

AC21 § 104(c) is applicable when an alien, who is the beneficiary of an approved I-140 petition, is eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status but for application of a per country limitation to which that alien is subject or, alternatively, if the immigrant preference category applicable to that alien is, as a whole, “unavailable”. Any petitioner seeking an H-1B extension on behalf of an H-1B alien beneficiary pursuant to AC21 §104(c) must thus establish that at the time of filing for such extension, the alien is not eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status on account of the per country immigrant visa limitations or, alternatively, because the immigrant preference classification applicable to the alien is “unavailable”.

In order to make a determination as to the H-1B alien beneficiary’s eligibility for an extension of H-1B status under the provisions of §104(c) of AC21, USCIS adjudicators are instructed to review the Department of State Immigrant Visa Bulletin that was in effect at the time of filing of the Form I-129 petition.

If, on the date of filing of the H-1B petition, the Visa Bulletin shows that the alien was subject to a per country or worldwide visa limitation in accordance with the alien’s immigrant visa “priority date”, then the H-1B extension request under the provisions of §104(c) of AC21 may be granted. To establish the alien’s priority date, USCIS may accept a copy of the H-1B alien beneficiary’s Form I-140 petition approval notice.

[kd2008]

Pending I-485 inventory is expected in a few days to a week according to a reliable source. I hope it comes true. Lets gear up for a teardown and analysis marathon.

[krishnav]

Hello All,

Do both service centers share the same visa numbers (2X for both) or do they get equal numbers for each service center ( NSC - X and TSC - X)?
I ask because if NSC start approving visas, does it mean TSC is loosing its numbers?

Any thoughts are appreciated.
Thanks.

[sweety0202]

i think we gotta reroute(hehe..) donations to trackitt so that it can have another server.
it seems to be down most of the times.

[mysati]

Hello All,

Do both service centers share the same visa numbers (2X for both) or do they get equal numbers for each service center ( NSC - X and TSC - X)?
I ask because if NSC start approving visas, does it mean TSC is loosing its numbers?

Any thoughts are appreciated.
Thanks.

I have a similar question. Read somewhere that cases are being routed to TSC for EAD/AP approval since NSC is overloaded. Does that mean, cases can be/are routed to NSC for 485 approval?

[vp5856]

Nishant,
My RD is Nov 2nd and I received FP notice on Dec 9 for Jan 5 appointment. Which is around 65 days after filing.
Yesterday I observed on Trackitt, 5 or 6 Nov approvals have FP dates around this date and FP dates appointments, like me late than NSC average. May be already decided ones for them and FP is mere a formality? Two or three weeks back also I observed Nov NSC approval case, 2-3 weeks after FP.
Just an observation, there is no theory behind it.



friend, can you explain this a bit, I did not understand completely.

[vp5856]

visagcinfo, you read it right. :)


vp5856: Congrats.

This information makes your 485 approval more interesting. If I read it right, your current employer did not sponsor your GC but future employer who is a small/medium sized company is the one who sponsored your GC. We don't hear such scenarios often.

[nishant2200]

Nishant,
My RD is Nov 2nd and I received FP notice on Dec 9 for Jan 5 appointment. Which is around 65 days after filing.
Yesterday I observed on Trackitt, 5 or 6 Nov approvals have FP dates around this date and FP dates appointments, like me late than NSC average. May be already decided ones for them and FP is mere a formality? Two or three weeks back also I observed Nov NSC approval case, 2-3 weeks after FP.
Just an observation, there is no theory behind it.

Got it. thank you!

[gkjppp]

https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions#!/response/removing-bottlenecks-visa-process?utm_source=wethepeople&utm_medium=response&utm_campaign=eb2eb3



All BS but at least they are taking notice If they make this as a law it's boon to all Indians, most of us just need ead/ap to travel to their home country as and when needed.

[nabrika]

Not sure if someone has already shared this news from Murthy.


NewsFlash! March 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions: EB2 to Advance Again! Posted 24.Jan.2012
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Office has confirmed that EB2 priority dates will advance again in the March 2012 Visa Bulletin. The exact amount of forward movement is not yet known, as it largely depends upon case filing rates. The DOS projects that the EB2 cutoff dates will move by at least a few months in March 2012. The DOS estimates that an advance of as much as six months could occur. They stated that it is unlikely that the dates will advance by a full year. Updates on this important topic will be reported to MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers as reliable information becomes available.

[savinir]

Hello manubhai,

I thought of sharing my experience related to H1b extension. I filed for a 3 year extension (regular process) based on my I-140 approval in Aug. 2011. I became current in Nov 2011 VB (PD: Aug. 2007), and filed for my I 485 while my extension was still pending. I was under the same assumption that I will get 1 year extension cuz, I'm current. But received my approval notice in Jan 2012 for 3 years that was requested for. Now waiting for my EAD/AP approval.

Hope this helps.

Hi,

Thanks for the information it really help me a lot. i was about to file my extension and the exact same day i became current.So asked my attorney to hold off my extension and wanted to apply for H1 B extension after 485 is filed.But with this information i immediately emailed my company.

thank you.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks for the compliment Teddy, I am so close to make my signature true.


One of my friend got NVC fee notice. His PD is Apr 29 2010!!

Good luck every one!

Suninphx great news thanks for posting. gkjppp very good news indeed you can be quite confident about the next bulletin now because all the news and the NVC notice now supports forward movement.

[tanu_75]

Any thoughts from folks on where the PD could end up in say Nov 2012, i.e, where's the line for actual Green Card approvals this year? I know we don't have demand data for the past few months of date movements, but that hasn't really stopped us from predicting in the past. :) Teddy/Q/Spec/KD/Nishant any ideas? I checked the Facts and Data thread but didn't come across any updates there.

Also is Trackitt working for anyone? I've been wanting to check stats but can't seem to access it for the past couple of days.

[vgraj1]

Hi gkjppp,

I suggest you drop the word 'or 10/2014 bulletin' from your signature. That gives hope to April 11 PDers in FY 2013.

Best of luck in March bulletin!

[nishant2200]

One of my friend got NVC fee notice. His PD is Apr 29 2010!!

Good luck every one!

wonderful!! I remember reading somewhere, maybe on CM's blogspot blog, that CO has good data of approved I-140 category changeability wise from September 2010 onwards. If that's true, then we might see him move till around September 2010 to gauge the demand. For life of me, I can't find the source of this information I got in my head.

[suninphx]

wonderful!! I remember reading somewhere, maybe on CM's blogspot blog, that CO has good data of approved I-140 category changeability wise from September 2010 onwards. If that's true, then we might see him move till around September 2010 to gauge the demand. For life of me, I can't find the source of this information I got in my head.

If the movement is happening based on some data then nothing like it. It will be really a good news for every one. My assumption all the while is that CO is making use of 'technical defination' of demand and moving dates. If the date movement is also based on data even better.

[vgraj1]

If you see the latest statement from CO, DOS is not only considering DQ cases but also new I-485 EB2 filings received by USCIS. And USCIS has itself admitted that only 50% of its estimated EB 2 I-485filings are actually being received. This shows clearly the impact of recession in the last few years that has led to substantial demand destruction. Unlike 2007, the DOS in tandem with USCIS are advancing the dates carefully this year so that no FY 2012 visas are wasted. So, let us remain positive and hope for the best.

[skpanda]

I think Mr. CO may have already made up his mind on the COD for March VB and i hope DOS releases the March VB on 3rd FEb itself (3rd working day) like they did with Feb VB.

Good Luck to all 2010 filers (especially first 6 months)!!

[kd2008]

Consular visa count count EB2-I

Mumbai Jan 2012 - 16
Mumbai Feb 2012 - 44

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/interview_appt_schedule.html

Delhi Jan 2012 - 1

http://newdelhi.usembassy.gov/visa_interview_dates.html

We need to start keeping track of this!

[Chilli19]

i got an email from my attorney that we (2010 filers until june ) should be ready with the documents. He even setup a call for the filers. I hope it will reach atleast June 2010

[nishant2200]

From here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=19199#post19199

Thanks kd. so basically it's this statement in AILA's news:

"Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested."

Based on this, I hope he goes a bit further than those 6 months talked about, and goes until at least September 2010.

[imdeng]

My gut feel is that we will end the FY2012 in the middle of 2008 and we will then finish the rest of 2008 and the whole of 2009 in FY2013 - this will keep the 4 year wait for PD to GC Issue for EB2I. This is of course without HR3012. Once the demand data shows us the density of filings then we will be able to fine tune the projections.

Any thoughts from folks on where the PD could end up in say Nov 2012, i.e, where's the line for actual Green Card approvals this year? I know we don't have demand data for the past few months of date movements, but that hasn't really stopped us from predicting in the past. :) Teddy/Q/Spec/KD/Nishant any ideas? I checked the Facts and Data thread but didn't come across any updates there.

Also is Trackitt working for anyone? I've been wanting to check stats but can't seem to access it for the past couple of days.

[kd2008]

Thanks kd. so basically it's this statement in AILA's news:

"Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested."

Based on this, I hope he goes a bit further than those 6 months talked about, and goes until at least September 2010.

Hey, you will anger Sept 2010 and beyond folks! :) Let us hope it is as large as possible, and that it spells out more movement in coming months.

[cbpds1]

Remember few months ago we used to worry when we can apply for EAD, its good we moved to when can we get GC, Times r changing for good !!




Any thoughts from folks on where the PD could end up in say Nov 2012, i.e, where's the line for actual Green Card approvals this year? I know we don't have demand data for the past few months of date movements, but that hasn't really stopped us from predicting in the past. :) Teddy/Q/Spec/KD/Nishant any ideas? I checked the Facts and Data thread but didn't come across any updates there.

Also is Trackitt working for anyone? I've been wanting to check stats but can't seem to access it for the past couple of days.

[mesan123]

Source: Ron forum

The Congressional Research Service released a report titled: Numerical Limits on Employment-Based Immigration: Analysis of the Per-Country Ceilings. This report articulates the pros and cons of the per country limits.
http://www.imminfo.com/Resources/Misc/R42048.pdf

[kd2008]

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/885204997/visa-bulletin-march-2012-predictions/page/last_page



Posted by pulijalahari (46) 3 hours 26 minutes ago
to captainhaddock:

my friend got an NVC fee notice whose PD is June 30 2010.
Does it mean it will move till that date??

I hope it is true!

[qriousjunta]

Guys, do anyone have experience filing I-485 for future employment? if so when to switch payroll to sponsoring employer? after 485 approval or when PD is current and to file 485?

[nishant2200]

Guys, do anyone have experience filing I-485 for future employment? if so when to switch payroll to sponsoring employer? after 485 approval or when PD is current and to file 485?

I do not have experience with it, but you are supposed to join your GC job when you get the physical GC in hand.

[tjprofile]

i got an email from my attorney that we (2010 filers until june ) should be ready with the documents. He even setup a call for the filers. I hope it will reach atleast June 2010
When your attorney mentioned it as June 2010, is it June 1st or June 30th 2010??

[vp5856]

Guys, do anyone have experience filing I-485 for future employment? if so when to switch payroll to sponsoring employer? after 485 approval or when PD is current and to file 485?

You can join the future employer after getting EAD but ideally best to stay on H1 status with current employer or transfer H1 to future employer. You can always fall back to EAD if there are any EAD/485 issues. Reverse is not possible.

[vp5856]

You can join the future employer after getting EAD but ideally best to stay on H1 status with current employer or transfer H1 to future employer. You can always fall back to EAD if there are any H1 issues. Reverse is not possible.

Correction H1 issues.

[qriousjunta]

Thanks , thats a good point once EAD is used back to H1 is not possible, it is always better to stay in H1 until Greened.
A) Stay in H1 with current employer --> File for 485 --> get EAD --> move to sponsor-er
B) Transfer H1 to sponsor-er --> File for 485 --> get EAD --> continue with sponsor -er
I am wondering what if the future end client and current employer are same, why would uscis approve H1 transfer? I have heard in forums many a times people transfer H1 from consulting company to full-time employment(where they worked as consultant) ,but could not find any one done the reverse H1 transfer. Any thoughts?

[vp5856]

Thanks , thats a good point once EAD is used back to H1 is not possible, it is always better to stay in H1 until Greened.
A) Stay in H1 with current employer --> File for 485 --> get EAD --> move to sponsor-er
B) Transfer H1 to sponsor-er --> File for 485 --> get EAD --> continue with sponsor -er
I am wondering what if the future end client and current employer are same, why would uscis approve H1 transfer? I have heard in forums many a times people transfer H1 from consulting client to full-time with the same client as primary employer, but could not find any one done the reverse H1 transfer. Any thoughts?

H1 is non-immigration based while EAD/485 immigration based. I don't think for H1 transfer USCIS considers any immigration related details apart from whether you are on H1 extension when they approve H1 based on perm/labor or I-140.

Can you re-phase last couple of lines in marked in bold? Could not get it.

[qriousjunta]

updated my post, i appreciate your reply. But my question is not related to immigration and H1.

"people transfer H1 from consulting company to full-time employment(where they worked as consultant) ,but could not find any one done the reverse H1 transfer as full-time employee to consulting for the same job"?

[vp5856]

updated my post, i appreciate your reply. But my question is not related to immigration and H1.

"people transfer H1 from consulting company to full-time employment(where they worked as consultant) ,but could not find any one done the reverse H1 transfer as full-time employee to consulting for the same job"?

qriousjunta,
If the client (full-time employment(where they worked as consultant)) is not willing to file your GC and there is a mutual understanding between you and your consulting company, that you will rejoin after getting your GC then why not?
And to answer your question if I got it right, you would not reverse transfer you h1 to consulting company - your client would not allow it, and why would you do that if you are doing fine with this/client on h1 status, unless your consulting company trying to threaten you to rejoin on H1.
In reality these cases are very rare.

[qriousjunta]

qriousjunta,
If the client (full-time employment(where they worked as consultant)) is not willing to file your GC and there is a mutual understanding between you and your consulting company, that you will rejoin after getting your GC then why not?
And to answer your question if I got it right, you would not reverse transfer you h1 to consulting company - your client would not allow it, and why would you do that if you are doing fine with this/client on h1 status, unless your consulting company trying to threaten you to rejoin on H1.
In reality these cases are very rare.


True it is neither my employers wish ( but it is their inability to procure me a 1-140 PD recapture ) nor my consulting firm's threaten to join them in H1 for them to make money. We are all in mutual agreement for me to turn green.
I agree to your point that these are very rare in reality, but the fact is - this is an effect of this syndrome.

[kd2008]

http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36980

Unclassified Phone numbers

I V Control and Reports Division Charles
Oppenheim L415 SA1
202-663-1087

Anybody want to give a call?

[manubhai]

Just a reminder:

If you are interested in being on the conference call which is part of the response to the petition concerning "Foreign graduates with Advanced US Degrees"... please check the following thread and RSVP.

The call is tomorrow, February 1, at 1:30 PM EST.

Link to post: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?659-White-House-response-to-petition-for-GC-for-advanced-degree-holders

Disclaimer: Not sure WHAT you/we will gain by spending time on this call. Hopefully, it will be more than some usual political BS.

[rasknorr]

I found this link.. nothing is different than the gurus already posted, but only thing i am positive is - "They stated that it is unlikely that the dates will advance by a full year" -- does this mean, it could be more than 6 months!!! any thoughts?

http://timesofap.com/immigration/2012/01/30/march-2012-visa-bulletin-predictions-eb2-to-advance-again/

The U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Office has confirmed that EB2 priority dates will advance again in the March 2012 Visa Bulletin. The exact amount of forward movement is not yet known, as it largely depends upon case filing rates. The DOS projects that the EB2 cutoff dates will move by at least a few months in March 2012. The DOS estimates that an advance of as much as six months could occur. They stated that it is unlikely that the dates will advance by a full year. Updates on this important topic will be reported to MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers as reliable information becomes available.

[suninphx]

Spec,

Thanks!

Here are my number

Jan - July 2007 --- 811
Aug07- Mar 08 ----585


Will follow up by end of Jan.

Spec,

Here are numbers as on today :

Jan - July 2007 --- 824
Aug07- Mar 08 ----685

[Spectator]

Spec,

Here are numbers as on today :

Jan - July 2007 --- 824
Aug07- Mar 08 ----685suninphx,

Here are mine:

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 --- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 (+6 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 --- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 (+53 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 --- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 (+50 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ---- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 (+134 cases)

[Spectator]

I have made a new thread under Advocacy & Petitions - EAD for H4 Holders (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?664-EAD-for-H4-Holders&p=20092#post20092)

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Here are mine:

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 --- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 (+6 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 --- 238 ----- 278 ----- 330 (+52 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 --- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 (+50 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ---- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 (+134 cases)

Spec,

Thanks!

Do you have any analysis to share? Even if it may be early days.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks!

Do you have any analysis to share? Even if it may be early days.suninphx,

I would like to wait to see the USCIS Inventory numbers.

October and November VB numbers are certainly now in the range I was expecting.

It really is early days.

As you can see, there were still significant additions to the November numbers even after 3 months, so it makes it difficult to know how December and January will progress. Some basic extrapolation says they may increase to expected levels, but every month may be quite different. For instance, most of the October VB cases were added to Trackitt fairly quickly.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

I would like to wait to see the USCIS Inventory numbers.

October and November VB numbers are certainly now in the range I was expecting.

It really is early days.

As you can see, there were still significant additions to the November numbers even after 3 months, so it makes it difficult to know how December and January will progress. Some basic extrapolation says they may increase to expected levels, but every month may be quite different. For instance, most of the October VB cases were added to Trackitt fairly quickly.

Ok - let's wait for inventory numbers then.

[shreyasai2004]

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: March 2012 (Coming Soon)

in web site hopefully visa bulletin will release by this friday

[vizcard]

I seriously doubt the VB will come out this week. If it does then great but I can't imagine it'll come out before mid to later next week.

[harapatta]

Without using any logic and just going by empirical observations from various immigration forums, I think the visa bulletin will be released tomorrow and dates will be moved by at least 9 months.

[manzoorraza]

Guys, Need some advice and appreciate if someone can help me out here.

Sequence of facts in my case:

1) Last H1 (4th yr only) was expring 7th Oct 2010, extension request received by USCIS on Aug 29th 2010
2) PD of May 2009 became current in Feb Bulletin. Started working with the attorney to put the 485 application together.
3) Received RFE to H1 day before yesterday - its 4 pages long and its a pretty tough one to answer. I work for a desi consulting and USCIS is questioning pretty much everything (employee employer relationship, future emplyment plans and the whole 9 yards) . Have a good comopany attorney who didn't think it was "that bad" but I have my doubts for now atleast.
4) Attorney was supposed to send out the 485 package yesterday or latest by today.

My questions are:
1) What happens if my H1 is rejected but I get my EAD before that? i.e. can I keep working as I am purely on the basis of EAD issued now - Technically if my H1 is rejected then I would have had no status since Oct 7th 2010.
2) Does my 485 remain valid although the underlying visa has been denied before 485 approval?

Appreciate if someone can answer the above. I do realise that this is not the most appropriate thread and do apologise in advance for the same.

Thanks

[ChampU]

Without using any logic and just going by empirical observations from various immigration forums, I think the visa bulletin will be released tomorrow and dates will be moved by at least 9 months.

Don't mean to be rude, but by predicting "At least 9 months" you are making folks with PDs beyond 10/01/2010 nervous, unnecessarily..

[Kanmani]

Are you sure the H1 extension petition is pending for 1 1/2 years ?
What is your RFE Respond time permitted?



Guys, Need some advice and appreciate if someone can help me out here.

Sequence of facts in my case:

1) Last H1 (4th yr only) was expring 7th Oct 2010, extension request received by USCIS on Aug 29th 2010
2) PD of May 2009 became current in Feb Bulletin. Started working with the attorney to put the 485 application together.
3) Received RFE to H1 day before yesterday - its 4 pages long and its a pretty tough one to answer. I work for a desi consulting and USCIS is questioning pretty much everything (employee employer relationship, future emplyment plans and the whole 9 yards) . Have a good comopany attorney who didn't think it was "that bad" but I have my doubts for now atleast.
4) Attorney was supposed to send out the 485 package yesterday or latest by today.

My questions are:
1) What happens if my H1 is rejected but I get my EAD before that? i.e. can I keep working as I am purely on the basis of EAD issued now - Technically if my H1 is rejected then I would have had no status since Oct 7th 2010.
2) Does my 485 remain valid although the underlying visa has been denied before 485 approval?

Appreciate if someone can answer the above. I do realise that this is not the most appropriate thread and do apologise in advance for the same.

Thanks

[harapatta]

Don't mean to be rude, but by predicting "At least 9 months" you are making folks with PDs beyond 10/01/2010 nervous, unnecessarily..

I have absolutely no intentions to make anybody nervous, as a free forum I am sharing my observations/Prediction.

[username]

Guys, Need some advice and appreciate if someone can help me out here.

Sequence of facts in my case:

1) Last H1 (4th yr only) was expring 7th Oct 2010, extension request received by USCIS on Aug 29th 2010
2) PD of May 2009 became current in Feb Bulletin. Started working with the attorney to put the 485 application together.
3) Received RFE to H1 day before yesterday - its 4 pages long and its a pretty tough one to answer. I work for a desi consulting and USCIS is questioning pretty much everything (employee employer relationship, future emplyment plans and the whole 9 yards) . Have a good comopany attorney who didn't think it was "that bad" but I have my doubts for now atleast.
4) Attorney was supposed to send out the 485 package yesterday or latest by today.

My questions are:
1) What happens if my H1 is rejected but I get my EAD before that? i.e. can I keep working as I am purely on the basis of EAD issued now - Technically if my H1 is rejected then I would have had no status since Oct 7th 2010.
2) Does my 485 remain valid although the underlying visa has been denied before 485 approval?

Appreciate if someone can answer the above. I do realise that this is not the most appropriate thread and do apologise in advance for the same.

Thanks

I have also received similar rfe last year.

Don't worry much about long RFE regarding employee-employer relation. That is there (USCIS) standard draft which they send to most of H1B extension applications. Provide whatever documents are available to you and your H1B will be extended. They send this rfe even if you have submitted all document in initial package of H1B extension.

My questions are:
1) What happens if my H1 is rejected but I get my EAD before that? i.e. can I keep working as I am purely on the basis of EAD issued now - Technically if my H1 is rejected then I would have had no status since Oct 7th 2010 - You can start working on EAD as soon as your get it with current employer and after six month with any employer (but don't forget to file AC21 at the time of changing employer).
2) Does my 485 remain valid although the underlying visa has been denied before 485 approval? - I am not sure about this but as per my understanding if you start using EAD than your H1 extension approval/denial doesn't matter as you are not in H1B status any more.

[manzoorraza]

Are you sure the H1 extension petition is pending for 1 1/2 years ?
What is your RFE Respond time permitted?

Kanmani,

Thanks for responding and pointing out; I meant to say 29th Aug 2011. The RFE respond time is till 19th April 2012.

[manzoorraza]

I have also received similar rfe last year.

Don't worry much about long RFE regarding employee-employer relation. That is there (USCIS) standard draft which they send to most of H1B extension applications. Provide whatever documents are available to you and your H1B will be extended. They send this rfe even if you have submitted all document in initial package of H1B extension.

My questions are:
1) What happens if my H1 is rejected but I get my EAD before that? i.e. can I keep working as I am purely on the basis of EAD issued now - Technically if my H1 is rejected then I would have had no status since Oct 7th 2010 - You can start working on EAD as soon as your get it with current employer and after six month with any employer (but don't forget to file AC21 at the time of changing employer).
2) Does my 485 remain valid although the underlying visa has been denied before 485 approval? - I am not sure about this but as per my understanding if you start using EAD than your H1 extension approval/denial doesn't matter as you are not in H1B status any more.

Username,

Thanks for the reassuring words. The thing that is bothering me is that if my H1 gets rejected, eventhough I will receive an EAD based on my AOS application, the underlying visa for the employment based AOS would be rejected which would leave me without status since Oct 7 2011 till the time I get my EAD. In this case does the USCIS take offence and reject my 485 or is this something they wont care about.

[mesan123]

Hi,

i think you have couple of options. like you can respond back to the RFE by 15th of April or so...by then, you should be getting your EAD/AP. after that point anyway you are planning to work on EAD.

Incase you dont get EAD by the time you repond to your RFE or incase your H1b gets rejected also. you can stay in USA ( on assumption that you will have i-485 reciept no by then) as you are 485 is in process. only things then,is you cant work till you get your EAD.


first make sure your attorney files your 485 at the earliest and you get EAD/AP soon as everyone are getting.


Kanmani,

Thanks for responding and pointing out; I meant to say 29th Aug 2011. The RFE respond time is till 19th April 2012.

[Kanmani]

Good to know that its Aug 2011.
As per our attorney there is no known case of denial of I-485 with respect to H1b denial of the applicant . ( I asked the same question to our attorney some time back)
Try to delay your RFE response by a month so that you can switch to EAD before if there is any potential denial .

NOTE: Dont take it as a legal advice, I am not an attorney.


Kanmani,

Thanks for responding and pointing out; I meant to say 29th Aug 2011. The RFE respond time is till 19th April 2012.

[manzoorraza]

Good to know that its Aug 2011.
As per our attorney there is no known case of denial of I-485 with respect to H1b denial of the applicant . ( I asked the same question to our attorney some time back)
Try to delay your RFE response by a month so that you can switch to EAD before if there is any potential denial .

NOTE: Dont take it as a legal advice, I am not an attorney.

Mesan, Kanmani,
Thanks. I do intend to delay the response to RFE as late as possible and hopefully will have the EAD in a few weeks.... do remember seeing on Trackitt (Texas SC) that they are sending out the aproval emails for EAD in 4-5 weeks. I was able to confirm from my attorney that they sent out the application yesterday so hopefully it would be received today or tomorrow.
A followup question is how long does it take to get a receipt? The paralegal said it takes about 2 months but I do see on trackitt people have receipt numbers that they are using to track for 765 & 131 after having filed earlier this month. I know for H1's you can get the receipt number on the image of the back of the check cashed by USCIS if your bank provides that service. Does it work the same way with 485 too or is there some other way to do this? Does anyone know?
Thanks

[vizcard]

I have not seen anything that says receipt of a 485/765 or 131 taking 2 months. It may take 2 weeks (if that) but 2 months is just stupid. You will most likely get EAD in 2 months.

[goforgreen]

You should get receipt notices in two weeks. The checks are cashed using ACH so check image is not captured. It will come as a debit in your account. Lawyers tend to be conservative when they give out any timelines, also they dont want clients bothering them often so they give a conservative time and before that timeline usually you will get the update.


Mesan, Kanmani,
Thanks. I do intend to delay the response to RFE as late as possible and hopefully will have the EAD in a few weeks.... do remember seeing on Trackitt (Texas SC) that they are sending out the aproval emails for EAD in 4-5 weeks. I was able to confirm from my attorney that they sent out the application yesterday so hopefully it would be received today or tomorrow.
A followup question is how long does it take to get a receipt? The paralegal said it takes about 2 months but I do see on trackitt people have receipt numbers that they are using to track for 765 & 131 after having filed earlier this month. I know for H1's you can get the receipt number on the image of the back of the check cashed by USCIS if your bank provides that service. Does it work the same way with 485 too or is there some other way to do this? Does anyone know?
Thanks

[manzoorraza]

You should get receipt notices in two weeks. The checks are cashed using ACH so check image is not captured. It will come as a debit in your account. Lawyers tend to be conservative when they give out any timelines, also they dont want clients bothering them often so they give a conservative time and before that timeline usually you will get the update.

Vizcard, Goforgreen,
Thanks for the response. One of my colleagues confirmed what you guys have stated above. Appreciate the help from all of you.

[sreddy]

Hello Gurus,

My I-485 was filed a week ago (PD Aug, 2008). I have job position available within the copmany at a different location which i am kind of interested. If i have to change my job location at this stage, should my employer file amended LCA?

[bieber]

We may not see demand data this time
but it seems March bulletin will push the dates to atleast till July 1, 2010 (may be till Jan1, 2011)

ChampU, no matter what date we predict (other than C), there will be frds at other side of that date

[mesan123]

one guy in trackitt posted this....dont know how correct that is ...

"
One of my friend received NVC fee notification and his priority date is feb18th 2011. That means EB2 pd will move to till may 2011 in March bulletin. Guys every one ready with your doc's."

[suninphx]

one guy in trackitt posted this....dont know how correct that is ...

"
One of my friend received NVC fee notification and his priority date is feb18th 2011. That means EB2 pd will move to till may 2011 in March bulletin. Guys every one ready with your doc's."

Can you share link please?

[vishnu]

how does these fee notifications get sent out? my lawyer put me down as consular processing (which is fine, as i can always do AoS) and my PD is Sep 2010. No fee notifications for me so far...

[ChampU]

We may not see demand data this time
but it seems March bulletin will push the dates to atleast till July 1, 2010 (may be till Jan1, 2011)

ChampU, no matter what date we predict (other than C), there will be frds at other side of that date


I agree, that there is bound to be heartbreak for some in any situation.

A prediction is valuable if it is backed by some data, some analysis, some credible source. Pulling numbers and dates out of thin air just based on "gut feelings" is unnecessary, imho.

But then, this is a free forum, where everyone agrees to disagree. Its all good..

[mesan123]

here is the link....you can find post from user "aabbccdd"...

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/885204997/visa-bulletin-march-2012-predictions/page/last_page


Can you share link please?

[mesan123]

i dont know exactly vishu...i just posted what i found in trackitt...i dont how correct this guy is also.. :) but i just hope he is correct( so that i can think i will be current in next few months....i am also feb 2011 filer)


how does these fee notifications get sent out? my lawyer put me down as consular processing (which is fine, as i can always do AoS) and my PD is Sep 2010. No fee notifications for me so far...

[vishnu]

The trackitt user aabbccdd has posted only once! So veryyyy skeptical. Anyway, if it is true, then great for all of us... but lets remain cautious

[kkruna]

I would be skeptical of it. Someone said April, then some one talked of exact Jun 30th and now we are hearing Feb 11. We need more confirmation cases to conclude...

[mesan123]

this was that guys(aabbccdd) reply....as its not his direct friend....cant take it in count i think....
"
He is from India and he is friend of my colleague. Hopefully this is true. But keeping my fingers cross. Even though they send fee notification some times they don't move priority dates. But seeing recent PD jums in each bulletin i'm predicting that dates will jump to May 2011 in March bulletin.

Hopefully we get March bulletin by next Tuesday."


The trackitt user aabbccdd has posted only once! So veryyyy skeptical. Anyway, if it is true, then great for all of us... but lets remain cautious

[iamdeb]

The following is the I485 data as of Nov 2011. Hope the Gurus can decipher some meaningful information from the raw data.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_2011-nov.pdf

Sorry these represent data from the local offices and not the service centers.

[kd2008]

Sorry, I didn't see it. Already posted here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?211-Discussion-of-Bills-that-remove-the-Per-Country-Limits-H.R.2161-H.R.3012-H.R.3119&p=20202#post20202)

This is a legal thesis for not counting derivatives

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2012,0201-endelman.shtm


There is nothing here that explicitly authorizes or mandates the counting of family members under the preference quotas. While a derivative is “entitled to the same status, and the same order of consideration” as the principal alien, nothing requires that family members also be given their own numbers.


(2) Entitlement to derivative status.
Pursuant to INA 203(d), and whether or
not named in the petition, the child or
spouse of an employment-based first
preference immigrant, if not otherwise
entitled to an immigrant status and
the immediate issuance of a visa, is entitled
to a derivative status corresponding
to the classification and
priority date of the beneficiary of the
petition.

But they conveniently forget the title of the section under which the above is described


Subpart D—Immigrants Subject to
Numerical Limitations

So derivatives are subject to numerical limits! Argh! I dunno why they think it is not so. May be, Spec can elucidate me here.

[bee369]

Hi my PD is Apr 20 2010 and waiting for march bulletin. I have a situation and need help from gurus. My labor is applied in il state and I need be transferred to same company but to NY state. What if my PD becomes current and if they apply for 485 by mar 1st and if I move to NY in April to same company and same job and team.
My HR talked to lawyer and they said I can move to NY and they say anyway it will take 180 days and they can apply AC21 portability after 180 days so that location change is OK. When I asked what if 485 approves in less than 180 days then they need to move me back to IL but most unlikely it will happen in 180 days because of vast movement in dates. They are not allowing me to stay until 180 days from date of 485 filing in which case there won't be any problem but they asked me not to worry because 485 approval won't happen in 180 days for apr 2010 PD, Please advise

[veni001]

Hi my PD is Apr 20 2010 and waiting for march bulletin. I have a situation and need help from gurus. My labor is applied in il state and I need be transferred to same company but to NY state. What if my PD becomes current and if they apply for 485 by mar 1st and if I move to NY in April to same company and same job and team.
My HR talked to lawyer and they said I can move to NY and they say anyway it will take 180 days and they can apply AC21 portability after 180 days so that location change is OK. When I asked what if 485 approves in less than 180 days then they need to move me back to IL but most unlikely it will happen in 180 days because of vast movement in dates. They are not allowing me to stay until 180 days from date of 485 filing in which case there won't be any problem but they asked me not to worry because 485 approval won't happen in 180 days for apr 2010 PD, Please advise

bee369,

I agree with your HR/Attorney, it is very unlikely that EB2IC April 2010 PD will be greened in FY2012, with AC21 you are almost free bird after 180 days of your i485 RD.

If you are really lucky and receive approval with 180 days then you have to move back to IL location, off-course your employer can transfer you to any location after you moved back and start working at IL location.

[Pundit Arjun]

Bee, Your lawyer is right, if your 485 doesn't get approved before invoking AC21. I too agree that the 485 will not get approved within 6 months from now.


Hi my PD is Apr 20 2010 and waiting for march bulletin. I have a situation and need help from gurus. My labor is applied in il state and I need be transferred to same company but to NY state. What if my PD becomes current and if they apply for 485 by mar 1st and if I move to NY in April to same company and same job and team.
My HR talked to lawyer and they said I can move to NY and they say anyway it will take 180 days and they can apply AC21 portability after 180 days so that location change is OK. When I asked what if 485 approves in less than 180 days then they need to move me back to IL but most unlikely it will happen in 180 days because of vast movement in dates. They are not allowing me to stay until 180 days from date of 485 filing in which case there won't be any problem but they asked me not to worry because 485 approval won't happen in 180 days for apr 2010 PD, Please advise

[Spectator]

Sorry, I didn't see it. Already posted here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?211-Discussion-of-Bills-that-remove-the-Per-Country-Limits-H.R.2161-H.R.3012-H.R.3119&p=20202#post20202)

This is a legal thesis for not counting derivatives

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2012,0201-endelman.shtm


But they conveniently forget the title of the section under which the above is described


So derivatives are subject to numerical limits! Argh! I dunno why they think it is not so. May be, Spec can elucidate me here.kd,

Thanks for the link. It is an interesting commentary. I am not sure I completely buy the arguments, but for sure, exempting dependents would have a far bigger impact than any Bill in the Senate at present. It is a long article and I need to re-read it a few times, which I haven't had the chance to do.

INA 201(b) states which immigrants are not subject to Direct Numerical Limitations:


(b) Aliens Not Subject to Direct Numerical Limitations. - Aliens described in this subsection, who are not subject to the worldwide levels or numerical limitations of subsection (a), are as follows:

(1) (A) Special immigrants described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of section 101(a)(27) .

(B) Aliens who are admitted under section 207 (Refugees) or whose status is adjusted under section 209 .

(C) Aliens whose status is adjusted to permanent residence under section 210 (Special agricultural workers), or 245A (Adjustment of status of certain entrants before January 1, 1982, to that of person admitted for lawful residence).

(D) Aliens whose removal is canceled under section 240A(a) (Cancellation of removal; adjustment of status).

(E) Aliens provided permanent resident status under section 249 (Record of admission for permanent residence in the case of certain aliens who entered the United States prior to July 1, 1924 or January 1, 1972).

(2)(A) (i) Immediate relatives. - For purposes of this subsection, the term "immediate relatives" means the children, spouses, and parents of a citizen of the United States, except that, in the case of parents, such citizens shall be at least 21 years of age. In the case of an alien who was the spouse of a citizen of the United States 6/ and was not legally separated from the citizen at the time of the citizen's death, the alien (and each child of the alien) shall be considered, for purposes of this subsection, to remain an immediate relative after the date of the citizen's death but only if the spouse files a petition under section 204(a)(1)(A)(ii) within 2 years after such date and only until the date the spouse remarries. 3/ For purposes of this clause, an alien who has filed a petition under clause (iii) or (**) of section 204(a)(1)(A) of this Act remains an immediate relative in the event that the United States citizen spouse or parent loses United States citizenship on account of the abuse.

(ii) Aliens admitted under section 211(a) on the basis of a prior issuance of a visa to their accompanying parent who is such an immediate relative.

(B) Aliens born to an alien lawfully admitted for permanent residence during a temporary visit abroad.

I have always thought that a clause 1(F) would need to be added stating something like:

(F) Dependents of Aliens provided permanent resident status under section 203(b).

I have always seen 203(d) as ensuring that the dependents can access the same PD and chargeabilty as the EB applicant, sparing them from the FB queue.

[bee369]

bee369,

I agree with your HR/Attorney, it is very unlikely that EB2IC April 2010 PD will be greened in FY2012, with AC21 you are almost free bird after 180 days of your i485 RD.

If you are really lucky and receive approval with 180 days then you have to move back to IL location, off-course your employer can transfer you to any location after you moved back and start working at IL location.

Ok Thanks for response guru veni001, but after I apply 485 in march ( assuming my pd becomes current ) and then if I move to NY in April, will my address change trigger any RFE for EAD/AP or 485 ? Will work for same company and team but need to move to NY in April, plz advise.

[iamsam]

I have a quick question:
If I-140 & I-485 are filed concurrently, Will the AC21 (180 days) clock start ticking from 485 receipt date or I-140 approval date?
Thanks

[jackbrown_890]

I have a quick question:
If I-140 & I-485 are filed concurrently, Will the AC21 (180 days) clock start ticking from 485 receipt date or I-140 approval date?
Thanks

180 days from RD.

[veni001]

Ok Thanks for response guru veni001, but after I apply 485 in march ( assuming my pd becomes current ) and then if I move to NY in April, will my address change trigger any RFE for EAD/AP or 485 ? Will work for same company and team but need to move to NY in April, plz advise.

bee369,
It should not, as long as your employer letter says that you will be working in the PERM job location upon receiving GC.

[cricfan]

Hi,

Sorry for asking this question in the wrong thread. I will move it to the appropriate thread once it is answered. I need to go to civil surgeon tomorrow. So, it is little urgent.

One is required to fill Full Middle name in Form I-693. I have received my labor and I-140 approval through FOIA. In my labor and I-140 approval my Given name (First name) field has been mentioned as my "First name Middle name" and Full Middle name field has been left blank. My Indian passport also has my name in the above format i.e. Given name is "First name Middle name" and there is no Middle name.

Do I need to do the same thing while filing the form I-693. Should I leave the field of Middle name blank and put my "First name Middle name" in Given name field. This may be a very trivial question. But I just want to be sure before going to the civil surgeon.

Thanks

[gcoracle]

Does an RFE on a dependent H1B have an impact on primary/dependent EAD? Reason I ask is because it has been 62 days and we are still waiting for EAD/AP.

[longgcque]

Cricfan, I had same scenario as urs. My passport has first name as - A B and last name as - C.
In 693 form, I had physician put it the same way and leave middle name as blank.

Doctor office was very particular in form filing in my case. Hope this helps.


Hi,

Sorry for asking this question in the wrong thread. I will move it to the appropriate thread once it is answered. I need to go to civil surgeon tomorrow. So, it is little urgent.

One is required to fill Full Middle name in Form I-693. I have received my labor and I-140 approval through FOIA. In my labor and I-140 approval my Given name (First name) field has been mentioned as my "First name Middle name" and Full Middle name field has been left blank. My Indian passport also has my name in the above format i.e. Given name is "First name Middle name" and there is no Middle name.

Do I need to do the same thing while filing the form I-693. Should I leave the field of Middle name blank and put my "First name Middle name" in Given name field. This may be a very trivial question. But I just want to be sure before going to the civil surgeon.

Thanks

[kd2008]

kd,

Thanks for the link. It is an interesting commentary. I am not sure I completely buy the arguments, but for sure, exempting dependents would have a far bigger impact than any Bill in the Senate at present. It is a long article and I need to re-read it a few times, which I haven't had the chance to do.

INA 201(b) states which immigrants are not subject to Direct Numerical Limitations:



I have always thought that a clause 1(F) would need to be added stating something like:

(F) Dependents of Aliens provided permanent resident status under section 203(b).

I have always seen 203(d) as ensuring that the dependents can access the same PD and chargeabilty as the EB applicant, sparing them from the FB queue.

Spec, thanks for the help with understanding their viewpoint.

[kd2008]

The USCIS Verification Division and the Office of Public Engagement invite any interested parties to participate in a national stakeholder engagement to discuss the nationwide launch of Self Check on Thursday, February 9, 2012 at 3:00 pm (Eastern Time) at the USCIS Orlando Field Office.

http://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USDHSCIS-2d0523

I guess we all can starting verifying that we are truly who we claim to be.

[cricfan]

Thanks longgcque. appreciate it.

[rasknorr]

http://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USDHSCIS-2d0523

I guess we all can starting verifying that we are truly who we claim to be.

Thank you. You are a GURU.

[mysati]

I am reposting this to make sure better understanding.

The law says one should be physically present inside US to adjust status from non-immigrant to immigrant . You have to prove yourself that you were physically inside while applying for AOS. The process of applying is completed only after the application is received by the uscis . proof? receipt !

srisri

Page 10 of I-485 instructions refers to travel after applying AOS. But most of our members are discussing about travel after posting the I-485 package to USCIS.



I agree about the receipt. My lawyer said that I need to leave only after the receipt date. Your receipt date is usually the day after your file reaches USCIS unless it is a weekend (i.e.) if your file reaches them on the first, second is the receipt date (unless second is a weekend) and you can leave on or after the third. But USCIS may send the notice on the fifth or later (and you need not wait for this, to leave the US).

Again these are nuances and may be open to interpretations. Better to avoid travel unless it is absolutely necessary. I will go with what my lawyer says as they have been processing my case since the days of my F1 to H1 conversion.


Kanmani,

Just wanted to clarify a bit on the discussion we had about the receipts earlier and when a person can leave US after filing AoS. I went back and reviewed what my lawyer said earlier and am posting it here for general reference.

Every file has a "Received Date" and a "Receipt Date". The "Received Date" is the proof that your file was received by USCIS. Say your file reaches USCIS on Feb-1st, then your "Received Date" is Feb-1st. But your "Receipt Date" is usually a few days later - that is when the USCIS picks it up and it is much closer to your "Notice Date". In this e.g. your "Recipt Date" may be around the 5th or 6th or later.

Since the proof of USCIS receiving your file is the "Received Date", you can technically leave US on or after Feb-2nd, in our example above.

Hope this helps.

[arikepudi]

I believe i am in a unique situation. According USPS website EAD/AP cards were delivered on Jan 30th, but we didnt receive them. Contacted USCIS and got tracking numbers of USPS. That also says the same thing. Contacted local USPS and they say the same thing. Contacted USCIS and they opened a service ticket for the same. But they say i have to wait for 15 days to resolve it or so.

I am moving from IL to FL on 10th of this month.

Gurus, any suggestions in this case.

[EB2Immigrant]

I have been following this forum as a silent observer since last summer and wanted to share some good news: received 485 approval emails yesterday.

Thanks to Q, Nishant, Veni, Teddy, Spec and all others for their valuable insights and analysis.

My best wishes for early approvals to all who are waiting in queue.

Chargeability: EB2 - I
PD: 9/5/2007
Processing Stage: I-485
NSC
Received Date: 11/18/2011
Notice Date: 11/23/2011
FP Scheduled: 1/12/2012
EAD/AP approval Date: 1/12/2011
EAD/AP: Combo card received on 01/28/2012
485 Approval: 2/1/2012
485 Email Notification: 2/1/2012
485 Physical Card: <TBD>

[Kanmani]

Kanmani,

Just wanted to clarify a bit on the discussion we had about the receipts earlier and when a person can leave US after filing AoS. I went back and reviewed what my lawyer said earlier and am posting it here for general reference.

Every file has a "Received Date" and a "Receipt Date". The "Received Date" is the proof that your file was received by USCIS. Say your file reaches USCIS on Feb-1st, then your "Received Date" is Feb-1st. But your "Receipt Date" is usually a few days later - that is when the USCIS picks it up and it is much closer to your "Notice Date". In this e.g. your "Recipt Date" may be around the 5th or 6th or later.

Since the proof of USCIS receiving your file is the "Received Date", you can technically leave US on or after Feb-2nd, in our example above.

Hope this helps.

Good. But how do I know my Received Date ?

[veni001]

I have been following this forum as a silent observer since last summer and wanted to share some good news: received 485 approval emails yesterday.

Thanks to Q, Nishant, Veni, Teddy, Spec and all others for their valuable insights and analysis.

My best wishes for early approvals to all who are waiting in queue.

Chargeability: EB2 - I
PD: 9/5/2007
Processing Stage: I-485
NSC
Received Date: 11/18/2011
Notice Date: 11/23/2011
FP Scheduled: 1/12/2012
EAD/AP approval Date: 1/12/2011
EAD/AP: Combo card received on 01/28/2012
485 Approval: 2/1/2012
485 Email Notification: 2/1/2012
485 Physical Card: <TBD>

Congratulations to you and your Family.

[mysati]

Good. But how do I know my Received Date ?

It will be on the notice that you receive, after you file. But just go with the definition in my post above.

[gkjppp]

I have been following this forum as a silent observer since last summer and wanted to share some good news: received 485 approval emails yesterday.

Thanks to Q, Nishant, Veni, Teddy, Spec and all others for their valuable insights and analysis.

My best wishes for early approvals to all who are waiting in queue.

Chargeability: EB2 - I
PD: 9/5/2007
Processing Stage: I-485
NSC
Received Date: 11/18/2011
Notice Date: 11/23/2011
FP Scheduled: 1/12/2012
EAD/AP approval Date: 1/12/2011
EAD/AP: Combo card received on 01/28/2012
485 Approval: 2/1/2012
485 Email Notification: 2/1/2012
485 Physical Card: <TBD>

Congratulations EB2Immigrant.

[ontheedge]

Hi,

Sorry for asking this question in the wrong thread. I will move it to the appropriate thread once it is answered. I need to go to civil surgeon tomorrow. So, it is little urgent.

One is required to fill Full Middle name in Form I-693. I have received my labor and I-140 approval through FOIA. In my labor and I-140 approval my Given name (First name) field has been mentioned as my "First name Middle name" and Full Middle name field has been left blank. My Indian passport also has my name in the above format i.e. Given name is "First name Middle name" and there is no Middle name.

Do I need to do the same thing while filing the form I-693. Should I leave the field of Middle name blank and put my "First name Middle name" in Given name field. This may be a very trivial question. But I just want to be sure before going to the civil surgeon.

Thanks

Yes, follow the same format to maintain consistency. Changing it on the I-693 may create unnecessary confusion.

[krishnav]

Congratulations EB2Immigrant. Enjoy your freedom.

Could you give some more details about yourself (qualificaitions, etc). Thanks.


I have been following this forum as a silent observer since last summer and wanted to share some good news: received 485 approval emails yesterday.

Thanks to Q, Nishant, Veni, Teddy, Spec and all others for their valuable insights and analysis.

My best wishes for early approvals to all who are waiting in queue.

Chargeability: EB2 - I
PD: 9/5/2007
Processing Stage: I-485
NSC
Received Date: 11/18/2011
Notice Date: 11/23/2011
FP Scheduled: 1/12/2012
EAD/AP approval Date: 1/12/2011
EAD/AP: Combo card received on 01/28/2012
485 Approval: 2/1/2012
485 Email Notification: 2/1/2012
485 Physical Card: <TBD>

[Kanmani]

my sati,

You are correct. I agree.
But still we cannot generalise this fact. I am not trying to falsify your points so consider my questions as constructive arguments.

For argument sake, What if I receive a received date as Feb 4th and I already left the US assuming that the received date will be printed as Feb 2 ?


It will be on the notice that you receive, after you file. But just go with the definition in my post above.

[qesehmk]

Spec has done outstanding analysis of labor data. Please check in facts and data.

Basically what we need to look at is not WHEN cases were approved .... but what year they belonged to. The latter will tell us better whetherthe overall trend is increasing or decreasing.

Makes sense?

In lieu of the PERM data analysis that resides in FACTS AND DATA section, I am not sure if the experts will find this analysis worthwhile :D but here is what I found... I am a beginner (green means something else out here)...

Experts please comment. I know this doesnt account for PD porting... But does it indicate an overall reduction in *Certified* PERMs and hence GC applications in the years following 2007?

Source: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/casePerm.aspx

218

Note:
- databases for 2004 & prior years, do NOT provide Chargeability & Status information is not equivalent either since since PERM was introduced in March 28, 2005
- 2011 data is still not available

Move the post if required...

[cricfan]

Yes, follow the same format to maintain consistency. Changing it on the I-693 may create unnecessary confusion.

Thanks ontheedge !!

[arikepudi]

If i apply with re-issuing the EAD cards, will change of address at this point matters. I am moving from IL to FL and i dont have any one in the current address to take care of the mails.

Also is it wise to keep someones address at IL with USCIS or will it be ok to update the address to FL. Which will work better, not to trigger any questions from USCIS during 485 adjudication process.

[rasknorr]

If i apply with re-issuing the EAD cards, will change of address at this point matters. I am moving from IL to FL and i dont have any one in the current address to take care of the mails.

Also is it wise to keep someones address at IL with USCIS or will it be ok to update the address to FL. Which will work better, not to trigger any questions from USCIS during 485 adjudication process.

Just throwing my idea... Why don't call the authorities and ask them the same question? They might give you the proper answer.

[username]

If i apply with re-issuing the EAD cards, will change of address at this point matters. I am moving from IL to FL and i dont have any one in the current address to take care of the mails.

Also is it wise to keep someones address at IL with USCIS or will it be ok to update the address to FL. Which will work better, not to trigger any questions from USCIS during 485 adjudication process.

Can you change your address to your good relative address (residing in USA) or lawyer address? You can pick mail from them or they can post (via Fedex) to you with adult signature confirmation required to your most newest address.

I am in consulting and can't predict how long my existing project will run. If my project ends soon than I might have to change my address. So to avoid all address change confusion I have put my aunty address as my address at the time of filing AOS.

[mysati]

my sati,

You are correct. I agree.
But still we cannot generalise this fact. I am not trying to falsify your points so consider my questions as constructive arguments.

For argument sake, What if I receive a received date as Feb 4th and I already left the US assuming that the received date will be printed as Feb 2 ?

No problem. I think you or someone else shared a link earlier in the forum about what happens (step-by-step) after USCIS receives your file. I am unable to find that link at a quick glance now. If I find it later, I'll repost it. But here is the gist:

File reaches USCIS, then they do a quick inventory/scan or something of that nature that determines when it was received. Per my lawyer, USCIS tracks/ maintains a record of when the file reaches them. This equates to the "Received Date".

I am not sure, if this is a fool proof method and if it could happen a day or two or later, maybe, especially when it involves Govt. There is an element of risk there and that is why most people wait to receive the notice in hand before they leave, if at all.

Hope this helps.

[greenercard]

No problem. I think you or someone else shared a link earlier in the forum about what happens (step-by-step) after USCIS receives your file. I am unable to find that link at a quick glance now. If I find it later, I'll repost it. But here is the gist:

File reaches USCIS, then they do a quick inventory/scan or something of that nature that determines when it was received. Per my lawyer, USCIS tracks/ maintains a record of when the file reaches them. This equates to the "Received Date".

I am not sure, if this is a fool proof method and if it could happen a day or two or later, maybe, especially when it involves Govt. There is an element of risk there and that is why most people wait to receive the notice in hand before they leave, if at all.

Hope this helps.

I'm counting on this interpretation. My AOS application was received at USCIS on Jan 25th per the Fedex delivery confirmation. No Receipt notice yet. I'm going out of the country for 2 weeks beginning tomorrow. I hope there wouldn't be any trouble. But given the obligations at work, I can't not go (project timelines etc).

[bee369]

bee369,
It should not, as long as your employer letter says that you will be working in the PERM job location upon receiving GC.

Thanks Veni001

[srividya]

Waiting for March Bulletin is tough task, Majority opinion with my friends is that "this is last bulletin we see fwd movement with out H.R. 3012 in this FY2012", Hope we see significant fwd movement. Last week we saw good number of approvals that mean USCIS cleared Adjudicated cases by approving so that Demand Data stays at low number for March. This gives justification for fwd movement.

[TorreyPines]

For me it's new, so posting for others who might not be aware of. The below website is updated instantly with floor proceedings.

http://democrats.senate.gov/2012/xx/xx/

For feb 2 - http://democrats.senate.gov/2012/02/02/

Right now S.2038 bill is sucking up entire senate's time.

[eb2visa]

http://www.murthy.com/news/UDac21qa.html

[eb2ODer]

qesehmk,

I went through the discussions on 2008-2009-2010 PERM DATA. Since its already been beaten to death, I will delete my posts... thanks for pointing it out!

[eb2visa]

Many people don't know what are the job responsibilities of the position they applied in GC or other titles that we could use. Below is the best link:

http://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/15-1132.00

[vizcard]

Mods-please delete if inappropriate.

With lots of folks getting EAD (and GC), there has been a lot of questions on this forum about changing jobs, etc. what came to mind was that this forum is a great place for folks to find out about jobs/companies. We could potentially start another thread where ppl could list what they do and/or what thy are looking for and have others help. This is a great place to network as I'm sure there are a lot of similar interests. Just a thought.

[qblogfan]

On mitbbs one guys did some programming and scanned all the cases submitted in Nov. He/she found that 30% NSC cases have been approved, but only 0.8% TSC cases have been approved. It looks like NSC guys are soooooooooo lucky!!!

I got a new job opportunity and I am thinking about leaving my company in the same day of my GC approval. Is it legal? I heard we have to work for the employer for 180 days after GC. For me, I have been stuck with them for 8 years and really want to move on. The new job is much better pay and has good pension programs.

[feedmyback]

Hi qblogfan,

I recently had a chat with my attorney (Murthy law firm) on this same subject. It is perfectly legal to change employers immediately. But she said that generally they advise all their clients to stick with the same employer for at least an year after getting GC. But this is only to be on safe side. She clearly told that no law restricts from changing employers immediately upon GC approval.

I also heard another version of it (not from my Attorney though). If you are working with your current employer with the same designation as mentioned in your PERM, then you can immediately shift employers without any problem upon getting GC. And suppose you are currently in one designation and it is different from whats on PERM, and the original intention was to take up the new designation (role) mentioned in your PERM only after GC, then it is always advised to stick with the current employer with the new designation (mentioned on PERM) for at least 6 months. Hope that helps. All the best!!!


On mitbbs one guys did some programming and scanned all the cases submitted in Nov. He/she found that 30% NSC cases have been approved, but only 0.8% TSC cases have been approved. It looks like NSC guys are soooooooooo lucky!!!

I got a new job opportunity and I am thinking about leaving my company in the same day of my GC approval. Is it legal? I heard we have to work for the employer for 180 days after GC. For me, I have been stuck with them for 8 years and really want to move on. The new job is much better pay and has good pension programs.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Quick question. I saw on trackitt that somebody who has a PD of 1/13/2008 received an approval of I-485. On further digging, I saw that this person did not apply for EAD and AP and he has mentioned in response to one of the questions that his lawyer advised him that I-485 will be faster if he does not apply for EAD and AP.

Here is the link.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigration-trackers/discuss/i485-eb/25860

Is it true that I-485 is faster if EAD and AP are not requested? As far as I can remember, Nishant has mentioned somewhere on the forum that the applications for approval of EAD and AP go to junior level USCIS officers while I-485 approval go to more senior and experienced USCIS officers.

P.S.:- I understand that applying I-485 without EAD and AP is a risky business in case the dates retrogress but would like to have Gurus throw some light on this.

[imdeng]

My impression is that EAD/AP and 485 are separate processes and they do not interact with each other. Considering potential retrogression, I think it is essential that one applies for EAD/AP. I would suggest for it even if it turns out that applying for EAD/AP delays 485 approval by a bit.


Is it true that I-485 is faster if EAD and AP are not requested? As far as I can remember, Nishant has mentioned somewhere on the forum that the applications for approval of EAD and AP go to junior level USCIS officers while I-485 approval go to more senior and experienced USCIS officers.

P.S.:- I understand that applying I-485 without EAD and AP is a risky business in case the dates retrogress but would like to have Gurus throw some light on this.

[shaumack]

Quick question. I saw on trackitt that somebody who has a PD of 1/13/2008 received an approval of I-485. On further digging, I saw that this person did not apply for EAD and AP and he has mentioned in response to one of the questions that his lawyer advised him that I-485 will be faster if he does not apply for EAD and AP.

Here is the link.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigration-trackers/discuss/i485-eb/25860

Is it true that I-485 is faster if EAD and AP are not requested? As far as I can remember, Nishant has mentioned somewhere on the forum that the applications for approval of EAD and AP go to junior level USCIS officers while I-485 approval go to more senior and experienced USCIS officers.

P.S.:- I understand that applying I-485 without EAD and AP is a risky business in case the dates retrogress but would like to have Gurus throw some light on this.

Applying EAD/AP is similar to one would apply for EAD on OPT or others on renewal. Once it is figured that dates are current for an application and you are eligible to file, these forms are separated and processed separately. Attorney who advised this is BSing in my mind. It is possible things can be little different now at USCIS with so many applicatiosn that same officer is taking care of EAD/AP and I-485 to avoid double dip. This will streamline the process a bit and improve processing times.

[mesan123]

180 days counts from day you get EAD or 485 reciept no. that part i am not 100% sure. you dont need to wait till you get your GC. incase you have EAD. count 180 days from the time you got your EAD and if your near that, you can file AC21 and take that job. that is legal and your not doing anything wrong by doing so...gurus correct me if i am wrong...




On mitbbs one guys did some programming and scanned all the cases submitted in Nov. He/she found that 30% NSC cases have been approved, but only 0.8% TSC cases have been approved. It looks like NSC guys are soooooooooo lucky!!!

I got a new job opportunity and I am thinking about leaving my company in the same day of my GC approval. Is it legal? I heard we have to work for the employer for 180 days after GC. For me, I have been stuck with them for 8 years and really want to move on. The new job is much better pay and has good pension programs.

[nomphy]

Guys - Today when I was coming to office I was standing on traffic signal. There are two right ONLY lanes. The right most is free as you can take a turn even if its red light but the other one is no trun on red signal. I was in that no turn lane. People on the right most lane were passing through one by one. Not very fast but they used to wait for incoming traffic and in between going through slowly but cars in our lane were just standing. This thought just came to my mind that this right most lane is Nebraska service center and we are in Texas service center lane. The people from Nebraska sure getting approved slowly and steadily and we from TSC are still waiting. And soon as it became green everybody in our lane crossed the traffic signal in a jiff. So I think whenever TSC starts picking up Nov cases we all Nov filers will get through this in a jiff.
So hope for the best and be positive.

[Spectator]

The latest USCIS Inventory is out http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_Jan2012.pdf

[mesan123]

was about to post the same thing Spec...you are always ahead :).....can gurus tell us based on this how much will the dates move for Mar bulletin ????


The latest USCIS Inventory is out http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_Jan2012.pdf

[natvyas]

was about to post the same thing Spec...you are always ahead :).....can gurus tell us based on this how much will the dates move for Mar bulletin ????

The inventory report will shed more light on how many individuals will get green card rather than projected movement in March bulletin.

The PD date movements cannot be justified by numbers any more. Its a policy decision.

Cheers
Nat

[vishnu]

Wow - the inventory is showing very low #s for India / China. Given 2009 is expected to be lighter than 2008, even better! CO comments about very low levels of filings are not far from the truth.

[natvyas]

I was going through the report and trying to comprehend it. The question I have is - Do the the columns depict PD date? If yes then how come there are so many documentarily qualified for 2008 (for India) when the NOV movement was the first time the dates moved into 2008?

Assumptions -

1) Numbers reflect documentarily qualified
2) columns depict PD date

[mesan123]

i still feel it is based on the data :)....that is my guess...may be i am wrong...if CO didnot move based on data....he can make it C anytime...


The inventory report will shed more light on how many individuals will get green card rather than projected movement in March bulletin.
The PD date movements cannot be justified by numbers any more. Its a policy decision.

Cheers
Nat

[qesehmk]

Great! Thanks Spec.

Here are my quick observations:

If these numbers are true representation of USCIS pipeline then EB2 is in extremely sweet spot and it should become current at least temporarily pretty soon.

On another note - look at 2011 EB2 - that's the ROW demand. Whereas look at 2007 Oct-Dec that's the typical EB2IC demand. Everything inbetween is a mystery to me as of now. Its difficult to believe the scale of demand destruction!!

Lets see what other folks have to say.

The latest USCIS Inventory is out http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_Jan2012.pdf

[MeraNoAayega]

The latest USCIS Inventory is out http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_Jan2012.pdf

I think its very clear that the total number of EB2IC 485 applications received by USCIS is less than 10k for 2007 & 2008..

as expected for 2008:
EB2 C - has pending applications only in double digits for most months...
EB2 I - has pending applications only in triple digits for most months...

I think the above might hold true for most of 2009...

However its surprising to see a surge in EB1 numbers since august 2011...

[mesan123]

hope he makes the date move to mid 2011....just hoping toomuch i know.....in a critical position at work...our project moved to other company...they will offer employement for most of us, who are currently working in the project....i will get pay rise and it is good project...but need to move the company and start over my GC process all over again......incase if i stick to my company, they will defnitely place me in some other project they have....none of there other projects are in my complete skillset....it is a big compromise... well next 2 bulletions are moments are imp for me....dont want to do the same mistake i did in 2007....i have 3 more months to decide...as the new company starts on the project by end of may 2012...


Great! Thanks Spec.

Here are my quick observations:

If these numbers are true representation of USCIS pipeline then EB2 is in extremely sweet spot and it should become current at least temporarily pretty soon.

On another note - look at 2011 EB2 - that's the ROW demand. Whereas look at 2007 Oct-Dec that's the typical EB2IC demand. Everything inbetween is a mystery to me as of now. Its difficult to believe the scale of demand destruction!!

Lets see what other folks have to say.

[Spectator]

A very quick look at the data, for months that might be complete, suggests an Overall Ratio of 0.6 for India and 0.7 for China, compared to the 0.8 I have been using.

I think it is early days to draw conclusions and I will have a better look as time permits.

[Kanmani]

Considering the fact that 2008 PDers are taking their own time to file and also Jan - March 2008 PDers were current a month before than rest of 2008, I guess 800 per month would be the final score (I) for the year 2008.

Vishnu, asankaran, smugymba and all others all the best . I think there is a good chance for a whole year movement.

Mesan sis , lets wait for your turn, who knows , you could also get it by this month itself. fingers crossed.





Wow - the inventory is showing very low #s for India / China. Given 2009 is expected to be lighter than 2008, even better! CO comments about very low levels of filings are not far from the truth.

[suninphx]

The latest USCIS Inventory is out http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_Jan2012.pdf

My first reaction:

Is these numbers for real??

[vishnu]

mikkan nandri kanmani

[ravisekhara]

I am new to look at inventory data. But the link says that document is updated Jan 12 2012. so probably inventory is not covering entire 2008 folks. Most probably it covers folks upto March 15 2008 or all who filed upto first week of January. Just a guess

[kd2008]

Immediate reactions on the Jan 2012 inventory report

EB2C likely to become current in FY 2013.

EB2IC have 4810 for CY 2008 vs the PERM data of about ~28000. But then again complete 2008 filings are not in this data.

Additional EB2IC ~25K applications are expected to be added from the date of inventory (Jan 12, 2012) to Feb 29, 2012. EB2IC total will be 8.5K + 5.5K + 25K = 39K, plenty for this year. But CO may move the dates beyond 1 Jan 2010 just a little to cover some CP cases in case the USCIS processing is tardy.

Contrary to what USCIS tells Mr. CO, EB1 has a very healthy demand and is on track to use up all its quota, I think.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I tried to test out the ratios for the Nov filers. The inventory figures for the later months are extremely low. If the figures are really true its great news for everyone. Another possibility is that this is a work in progress document and some filings have not met the criteria to be on the inventory or there is a manual step to put a case in the inventory that has not been performed. Iam not sure if the approvals that we have seen
EB2 I – 974 + 936 + 1120 + 1361 = 4391
EB2 C – 395 + 238 + 348 + 306 = 1287
Grand Total = 5887
Using OR of 1 with 2200 per month for 3.5 months = 7700
Using OR of .8 = 6160.
I believe that the OR range is really coming close to 0.75 for Nov filers. I will research the inventory later in the day and over the weekend. Overall the inventory is far lower than expected especially for 2008 more than 2007 and points to a lot of demand destruction. At this rate next VB will surely have forward movement 6 months seems to be a minimum even a year is possible.

[leo4ever]

Guru's,

It says this data is for Jan 2012. Does it mean till Jan 31, 2012? Most fo the 2008 filers were current from Jan 1st so wanted to see if they are counted.


A very quick look at the data, for months that might be complete, suggests an Overall Ratio of 0.6 for India and 0.7 for China, compared to the 0.8 I have been using.

I think it is early days to draw conclusions and I will have a better look as time permits.

[srisaikrupa]

I am new to look at inventory data. But the link says that document is updated Jan 12 2012. so probably inventory is not covering entire 2008 folks. Most probably it covers folks upto March 15 2008 or all who filed upto first week of January. Just a guess

Ravi,

Just curious where did you see "that document is updated Jan 12 2012".

Thanks .

[Jonty Rhodes]

hope he makes the date move to mid 2011....just hoping toomuch i know.....in a critical position at work...our project moved to other company...they will offer employement for most of us, who are currently working in the project....i will get pay rise and it is good project...but need to move the company and start over my GC process all over again......incase if i stick to my company, they will defnitely place me in some other project they have....none of there other projects are in my complete skillset....it is a big compromise... well next 2 bulletions are moments are imp for me....dont want to do the same mistake i did in 2007....i have 3 more months to decide...as the new company starts on the project by end of may 2012...

Hope, you are right mesan123. My PD is also May 20, 2011 and I am just after you. I am in India on vacation but I have been so much hooked to all the forums including this one and I still keep checking it at least 4-5 times a day. Will see what the VB shows.

[ravisekhara]

Ravi,

Just curious where did you see "that document is updated Jan 12 2012".

Thanks .

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

[mesan123]

Kanami...

If that comes true...."unga vayila chakkra podanum".... was not waiting for bulletin like this 2 weeks before....this all started with turmoils from my work situation....i know you all guys passed through this phase before me.....

[asankaran]

Thanks, Kanmani. I feel this is the bulletin I am going to make it. On the whole EB2 is looking very good. Those who made all the effort and sacrifices to file in EB2 couple of years back are finally going to reap the benefit. All the best!!

Considering the fact that 2008 PDers are taking their own time to file and also Jan - March 2008 PDers were current a month before than rest of 2008, I guess 800 per month would be the final score (I) for the year 2008.

Vishnu, asankaran, smugymba and all others all the best . I think there is a good chance for a whole year movement.

Mesan sis , lets wait for your turn, who knows , you could also get it by this month itself. fingers crossed.

[TeddyKoochu]

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

This update date is also significant because this means that none of the NSC approvals are subtracted from the inventory all of them have happened later on.

[srisaikrupa]

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Thank you Ravi.

[natvyas]

Based on these numbers can the gurus predict the green card issuance cut of date?

Are these numbers for documentarily qualified applicants?

[gkjppp]

Great! Thanks Spec.

Here are my quick observations:

If these numbers are true representation of USCIS pipeline then EB2 is in extremely sweet spot and it should become current at least temporarily pretty soon.

On another note - look at 2011 EB2 - that's the ROW demand. Whereas look at 2007 Oct-Dec that's the typical EB2IC demand. Everything inbetween is a mystery to me as of now. Its difficult to believe the scale of demand destruction!!

Lets see what other folks have to say.

Mar bulletin may cover entire 2010. Advance wishes for 2010 folks.

[rasknorr]

Mar bulletin may cover entire 2010. Advance wishes for 2010 folks.

I am not against to your prediction. But still OP's comments needs to take into cosideration - can't be move to an entire year.. If you words are correct i (PD 9/2/10) will be one of the lucky guy. Hope for the best..

Question - is there any trend that after the inv. data how soon the VB released? just curious..

All the best to every EB2 waiters.

[mysati]

I am not against to your prediction. But still OP's comments needs to take into cosideration - can't be move to an entire year.. If you words are correct i (PD 9/2/10) will be one of the lucky guy. Hope for the best..

Question - is there any trend that after the inv. data how soon the VB released? just curious..

All the best to every EB2 waiters.

Sometimes it gets released on the same day (max a day or two later). Maybe the VB will be released this afternoon.

[rasknorr]

Thanks mysati

[mrdeeds]

Considering the fact that 2008 PDers are taking their own time to file and also Jan - March 2008 PDers were current a month before than rest of 2008, I guess 800 per month would be the final score (I) for the year 2008.


Another theory - With dates being current in 2007, a lot of people raised hell to have their apps started in 2007 (including me). With the dates retrogressing in July 07, these applications that were started would still be reflecting in higher demand going into late 2007 early 2008 and that is what we are seeing. More or less all PWMBs.

[Gclongwait]

Considering the fact that 2008 PDers are taking their own time to file and also Jan - March 2008 PDers were current a month before than rest of 2008, I guess 800 per month would be the final score (I) for the year 2008.

Vishnu, asankaran, smugymba and all others all the best . I think there is a good chance for a whole year movement.

Mesan sis , lets wait for your turn, who knows , you could also get it by this month itself. fingers crossed.

This data does not make any sense. Why would sep07 and oct07 have more filings than nov07 and dec07. I think the December filers have not been counted fully. I would go with 1300 to 1500 per month at least till march 2008. Anything less than that doesn't seem right.

[srividya]

Before July 2007

No.of EB2 I-485 filings equal to number of perms.
Definetly based on Teddy calculation this holds good till Nov'2007
at it was down .7 This reason is simple many people with I-140 approved who changed jobs post july 2007 rushed to start their GC process again this caused demand reduction of 25% to 30% this is not big number.

post Nov'2007 is interesting from this period no.of cases may average ~700 per month till Mid 2008 . from mid 2008 to late 2009 the number of filing may average ~500 month.
This is the period demand destruction goes to .5 with Eb3 to EB2 upgrades. Most of these upgrades are in 2008 & 2009. Eb3 people whose date is current taken up to their case to port to EB2 so they get green card ASAP.


How ever we gusestimate EB2 data as below
2007 - 7605
2008 - 84000 (12*700)
2009 - 7500 (12*500) with increase numbers in last Quarter of 2009

so we may still have 25K cases before Jan 1st 2010.

EB1 - 15,600
EB2 ROW - 12,000
EB2 Mexico, Phil, china - 8,000 ( china excluded in above calculation)

so we have 35, 600 ==> non EB2 India & EB1

we have 86K ( EB1 & EB2 quota for FY 2012 with spill over from EB5)

as of Jan 19th with VO numbers 36% already used so 86 - 31 = 55K available quota.

assuming all 35, 600 are approved still we have 20K spillover. ( cases filed in EB1 & EB2 ROW from now will stay in pipeline few may get approved but at the same time more that from 35,600 will stary in pipeline).

we apply 20 K spillover for 25K demand till Dec'2009 , Most of the cases will be cleared.

By above analysis we can conclude USCIS pieline post sept'2012 will be ( EB1 & EB2 ROW from Feb'2012 & 5k from EB2 India), this pipeline is not good enough for post sept'2012 so more cases need in the system before that. always we have 25K inventory for EB1 & EB2 ROW in past reports now with India & china included don't cross this number. so VO is moving dates on numbers & on the system how it works.

Even based on PERM estimates we have 50K Perm's between July 2007 to Dec 2009. demand destruction is 50% this is what VO mentioned. It is reasonable.
before 2007 we don't have issues like porting & re-starting GC process gain. Earlier Once applied people used to wait for GC with their company. now due to 4-5 years delay people changed jobs after I-140. Most cases spouse also started GC process to renew H1 after 6 years.
5% filling I-485 late
20% EB3 to E2 porting last 3-4 years together 12K cases ported.
20% restarting GC after changing job with I-140
5% additional denails in I-140 stage, loosing job, leaving country.

[pdfeb09]

Based on these numbers can the gurus predict the green card issuance cut of date?

Are these numbers for documentarily qualified applicants?

As Far As I understand.. these number are NOT NECESSARILY "Documentarily Qualified" .. these numbers are I 485 applications received by USCIS, and have not been allocated a GC yet for various reasons (RFEs, have not yet processed completely, etc.), arranged by Priority Dates.

Some, Very few, of all these applications would be documentarily qualified if any at all. At least not at the time the snapshot was taken.

Gurus can correct me if I am wrong.

[GC-Utopic]

[QUOTE=srividya;20424]Before July 2007

No.of EB2 I-485 filings equal to number of perms.


Have you accounted for cases approved quickly which never show up in Inventory?

[skpanda]

My personal opinion: If CO moves PD in March 2012 based on the inventory, he should move it by 1 year atleast.

Reason:
a. EB2 as a whole has 30.5K applications.
b. The year 2008 from EB2IC added only 5K applications.
c. Granted that Inventory does not have 2009 data.
d. But looking at 2008 if we assume 2009 will also add 5K applications.
e. Total EB2 will be little less than 36K.
f. Total EB2 that will be documentarily qualified will be 31K (little less than 15% I485 rejection rate). So total EB2 Demand as of Feb 2012 VB 32K.
g. EB2 as whole usually gets 40K quota + 10K from EB1+EB5+EB4. Even if we assume 5K from EB1+EB5+EB5. Number of applications needed for FY 2012 for EB2 is 45K.
h. So USCIS still needs 14K documentarily qualified applications for FY2012 for EB2 as a whole. That turns out to be about 16.5K I485s.
i. Therefore to get 16.5K I485 applications, CO has to move the dates by atleast 1 year (infact they have to make it current if we go by the 2008 I485 count of 5K)

NOTE: I know that there are many people with PD in 2008 that have not applied and hence we see low numbers but Mr. CO does not have a way to see that.


Feel free to tear my logic apart.

[needid]

You need to take into account
1. AOS Cases that does show up any time in inventory and consume VISA
2. CP cases

As it is already 4th month in FY, a good percentage of Spillover ( QSP) already consumed.


My personal opinion: If CO moves PD in March 2012 based on the inventory, he should move it by 1 year atleast.

Reason:
a. EB2 as a whole has 30.5K applications.
b. The year 2008 from EB2IC added only 5K applications.
c. Granted that Inventory does not have 2009 data.
d. But looking at 2008 if we assume 2009 will also add 5K applications.
e. Total EB2 will be little less than 36K.
f. Total EB2 that will be documentarily qualified will be 31K (little less than 15% I485 rejection rate). So total EB2 Demand as of Feb 2012 VB 32K.
g. EB2 as whole usually gets 40K quota + 10K from EB1+EB5+EB4. Even if we assume 5K from EB1+EB5+EB5. Number of applications needed for FY 2012 for EB2 is 45K.
h. So USCIS still needs 14K documentarily qualified applications for FY2012 for EB2 as a whole. That turns out to be about 16.5K I485s.
i. Therefore to get 16.5K I485 applications, CO has to move the dates by atleast 1 year (infact they have to make it current if we go by the 2008 I485 count of 5K)

NOTE: I know that there are many people with PD in 2008 that have not applied and hence we see low numbers but Mr. CO does not have a way to see that.


Feel free to tear my logic apart.

[kd2008]

My personal opinion: If CO moves PD in March 2012 based on the inventory, he should move it by 1 year atleast.

Reason:
a. EB2 as a whole has 30.5K applications.
b. The year 2008 from EB2IC added only 5K applications. <---- Incorrect! Inventory is as of Jan 12, 2012 so not all 2008 applications are reflected in the inventory
c. Granted that Inventory does not have 2009 data.
d. But looking at 2008 if we assume 2009 will also add 5K applications.
e. Total EB2 will be little less than 36K.
f. Total EB2 that will be documentarily qualified will be 31K (little less than 15% I485 rejection rate). So total EB2 Demand as of Feb 2012 VB 32K.
g. EB2 as whole usually gets 40K quota + 10K from EB1+EB5+EB4. Even if we assume 5K from EB1+EB5+EB5. Number of applications needed for FY 2012 for EB2 is 45K.
h. So USCIS still needs 14K documentarily qualified applications for FY2012 for EB2 as a whole. That turns out to be about 16.5K I485s.
i. Therefore to get 16.5K I485 applications, CO has to move the dates by atleast 1 year (infact they have to make it current if we go by the 2008 I485 count of 5K)

NOTE: I know that there are many people with PD in 2008 that have not applied and hence we see low numbers but Mr. CO does not have a way to see that.


Feel free to tear my logic apart.

Please see my point in blue. It is expected that another ~25K applications will be added between Jan 12 and Feb 29 2012 for EB2IC with PDs between 15 March 2008 and 1 Jan 2010. You have to also include 8.5K EB2IC approved in October 2011 that came from this year's quota.

[skpanda]

Hmm.. makes sense. Thanks!

I think EB2 has already consumed 15K (due to QSP). CP cases will be less than 5K. So at this point the inventory has just about the applications that we need for FY2012. With 5K added further for 2009.

Mr. CO may just move by 6 months to a max of 1 year just to be safe.



You need to take into account
1. AOS Cases that does show up any time in inventory and consume VISA
2. CP cases

As it is already 4th month in FY, a good percentage of Spillover ( QSP) already consumed.

[skpanda]

See my note in the original post.

Mr. CO has no way to know how many have applied and how many have not. Also based on his experience he may know that most people who apply when they are current they do it within the 1st week.

I know that there are definately more than 15 applications in 2008. Its just that nobody has to way to find that out at this point of time.




Please see my point in blue.

[kd2008]

See my note in the original post.

Mr. CO has no way to know how many have applied and how many have not. Also based on his experience he may know that most people who apply when they are current they do it within the 1st week.

I know that there are definately more than 15 applications in 2008. Its just that nobody has to way to find that out at this point of time.

Yeah, he may not see it but he is not stupid either. So please try to understand the point I am trying to make. You cannot assume 5K for 2009 and then proceed on with the calculations in the way you have done.

[skpanda]

I missed the 'already allocated GCs' in FY 2012 and CP. So my calculations are off.

I hope Mr. CO does not take chances and moves dates by atleast 6 months. Good luck to all!!



Yeah, he may not see it but he is not stupid either. So please try to understand the point I am trying to make. You cannot assume 5K for 2009 and then proceed on with the calculations in the way you have done.

[narendarrao]

The pending inventory is updated on Jan 12. Mr CO said he will move the dates another six months around Jan 24th. Doesn't he know the pending inventory status by then before making the statement?

I wish the dates cover entire 2010.

[imdeng]

QBF - I agree with what Mesan is saying. Your employer has been horrible to you - leave at the first opportunity you have.

180 days counts from day you get EAD or 485 reciept no. that part i am not 100% sure. you dont need to wait till you get your GC. incase you have EAD. count 180 days from the time you got your EAD and if your near that, you can file AC21 and take that job. that is legal and your not doing anything wrong by doing so...gurus correct me if i am wrong...

[kkruna]

Demand for 2008 does not include ppl who have their GC approced. How many are they?


My personal opinion: If CO moves PD in March 2012 based on the inventory, he should move it by 1 year atleast.

Reason:
a. EB2 as a whole has 30.5K applications.
b. The year 2008 from EB2IC added only 5K applications.
c. Granted that Inventory does not have 2009 data.
d. But looking at 2008 if we assume 2009 will also add 5K applications.
e. Total EB2 will be little less than 36K.
f. Total EB2 that will be documentarily qualified will be 31K (little less than 15% I485 rejection rate). So total EB2 Demand as of Feb 2012 VB 32K.
g. EB2 as whole usually gets 40K quota + 10K from EB1+EB5+EB4. Even if we assume 5K from EB1+EB5+EB5. Number of applications needed for FY 2012 for EB2 is 45K.
h. So USCIS still needs 14K documentarily qualified applications for FY2012 for EB2 as a whole. That turns out to be about 16.5K I485s.
i. Therefore to get 16.5K I485 applications, CO has to move the dates by atleast 1 year (infact they have to make it current if we go by the 2008 I485 count of 5K)

NOTE: I know that there are many people with PD in 2008 that have not applied and hence we see low numbers but Mr. CO does not have a way to see that.


Feel free to tear my logic apart.

[kd2008]

Teddy, yes, indeed. USCIS is known to bungle its math, so I wouldn't be surprised if it revised its estimates. my expectation is:

USCIS expected PERM approvals x 0.97 (EB2 I -140 approval rate) x 0.7 (for EB2:EB3 split) x 2.125 as its filing numbers. It ended up getting half of this. So an overall OR may be 0.7215

My message from Jan 23. Looks like from what Spec estimated it is ~0.6 for I and ~0.7 for C from the latest inventory. Good enough? :) Thanks to Teddy, Spec, Veni, Q and others!

[imdeng]

A quick and interesting observation - though not directly related to EB2 situation. EB3C has a PD of Dec-01, 2004 - and according to the inventory, they only have only about 1700 EB3C cased between Dec-04 and Jul-07. So EB3C is likely to see really rapid movement in coming months and may cross the 07/07 threshold perhaps this FY and enter uncharted territory similar to the EB2I's present situation. It is amazing to see the speed with which the immigration landscape is changing.

[qesehmk]

As Far As I understand.. these number are NOT NECESSARILY "Documentarily Qualified" ..
Some, Very few, of all these applications would be documentarily qualified if any at all. At least not at the time the snapshot was taken.
Gurus can correct me if I am wrong.
That's what I am thinking.


This data does not make any sense. Why would sep07 and oct07 have more filings than nov07 and dec07. I think the December filers have not been counted fully. I would go with 1300 to 1500 per month at least till march 2008. Anything less than that doesn't seem right.
Yes. That would make more sense to me. I just find it very hard to believe that EB2IC demand in entire 2008 was less than 1000. That's absolutely ridiculous.

[nishant2200]

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextchannel=ae853ad15c673210VgnVCM100000082ca60 aRCRD&vgnextoid=5e170e6bcb7e3210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD

This article from USCIS should resolve many doubts about what is to be expected from Pending 485 inventory report. This was posted earlier, but could not find it.

An important paragraph:
"The “Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Report,” displays the total number of pending adjustment of status applications, per preference classification. The report shows how many pending adjustment of status (green card) applications in each preference classification have priority dates in a given month and year. You can use this chart to determine how many applicants in your preference classification have priority dates in the same month and year as your own. Also, you can determine how many applicants in your preference classification are ahead of you in line for a visa number by adding together the number of cases with an earlier priority date than your own."

Hence, my take is, these are just applications who have been accepted and receipt generated. Any public report like this will always be a bit behind in the timeline, and the most upto-date current data, would only be for internal stakeholders. This being said, some numbers do look quite low.

See the USCIS article completely, it contains answers to questions like: : What does this pending inventory report contain?

ps: I can imagine suninphx dancing somewhere, he was the original proponent of the huge demand destruction theory.

[TorreyPines]

As Far As I understand.. these number are NOT NECESSARILY "Documentarily Qualified" .. these numbers are I 485 applications received by USCIS, and have not been allocated a GC yet for various reasons (RFEs, have not yet processed completely, etc.), arranged by Priority Dates.

Some, Very few, of all these applications would be documentarily qualified if any at all. At least not at the time the snapshot was taken.

Gurus can correct me if I am wrong.

I was wondering the same. How come people post March-2008 who filed on/after jan 1st got entire process completed by Jan 12th? Is NSC that fast (considering TSC is one-golden-egg-a-day speedwise)?

[kd2008]

A very quick look at the data, for months that might be complete, suggests an Overall Ratio of 0.6 for India and 0.7 for China, compared to the 0.8 I have been using.

I think it is early days to draw conclusions and I will have a better look as time permits.


That's what I am thinking.


Yes. That would make more sense to me. I just find it very hard to believe that EB2IC demand in entire 2008 was less than 1000. That's absolutely ridiculous.

The inventory is as of Jan 12, 2012, Q. It has data till March 15, 2008 PDs (Dec bulletin)+ some beyond that (1 week or so of Jan bulletin). So EB2IC 2008 demand is not completely reflected in the inventory.

[eb2visa]

This link has full details about

AC21 - Change of Employer

http://www.murthy.com/news/UDac21qa.html



Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
180 days counts from day you get EAD or 485 reciept no. that part i am not 100% sure. you dont need to wait till you get your GC. incase you have EAD. count 180 days from the time you got your EAD and if your near that, you can file AC21 and take that job. that is legal and your not doing anything wrong by doing so...gurus correct me if i am wrong....

[mrdeeds]

This data does not make any sense. Why would sep07 and oct07 have more filings than nov07 and dec07. I think the December filers have not been counted fully. I would go with 1300 to 1500 per month at least till march 2008. Anything less than that doesn't seem right.

Actually it does make very good sense. Seeing the date movement in 2007, a lot of people had started their applications to get on the boat in 2007. When the boat left without them, all the applications that were started still hit the queue. Starting in Oct 07, DOL started the massive audit drive. I don't know the exact statistics of how many were audited but I remember from personal experience that they were a substantial percentage. The rejection rates for the audited applications was quite high and that would be reflected in and explain low Nov, Dec 07 filings.

[eb2visa]

I think the total demand for all EB categories for 2008 is around 17000 and 2009 is 13000

[qesehmk]

Oh yes. I missed it. Then look at the 2007 Oct and then Nov number. There is absolutely no reason why there should be that much drop between two consecutive months - other than some error or some sort of processing discrepancy.


The inventory is as of Jan 12, 2012, Q. It has data till March 15, 2008 PDs (Dec bulletin)+ some beyond that (1 week or so of Jan bulletin). So EB2IC 2008 demand is not completely reflected in the inventory.

[kd2008]

Oh yes. I missed it. Then look at the 2007 Oct and then Nov number. There is absolutely no reason why there should be that much drop between two consecutive months - other than some error or some sort of processing discrepancy.

Yes, the change is dramatic and unexplained. But it is the best we have available to make our guesses with. I hope USCIS is not wrong here. It seems they have been deliberate in publishing the data - waiting almost 3 weeks to publish after the capture of snapshot. So I hope they have double checked things. It would be a bummer, if they have made a mistake.

In the Jan 19 meeting Mr. CO, did say that USCIS had reported shockingly low numbers and half of what they expected. So in some ways, this report corroborates it.

[mrdeeds]

Oh yes. I missed it. Then look at the 2007 Oct and then Nov number. There is absolutely no reason why there should be that much drop between two consecutive months - other than some error or some sort of processing discrepancy.

Q, you forget the impact of massive audits that were started in late Oct 2007 going for a few months. Being an Oct 07 filer whose perm was audited and later denied in 09, I have met and spoken to a lot of people who faced those audits. I think it was like 40% of the PERMs filed then were audited. While I don't get much of everything else discussed here by you and other gurus alike, I can stick my neck out and say that this is not a discrepancy. There is a perfectly valid explanation for the drop in those months and that would be the audits.

[usernameisnotvalid]

I remember there was some trouble with PERM filings by Microsoft and they had to withdraw (or cancel) all of them.

[operas]

Q, you forget the impact of massive audits that were started in late Oct 2007 going for a few months. Being an Oct 07 filer whose perm was audited and later denied in 09, I have met and spoken to a lot of people who faced those audits. I think it was like 40% of the PERMs filed then were audited. While I don't get much of everything else discussed here by you and other gurus alike, I can stick my neck out and say that this is not a discrepancy. There is a perfectly valid explanation for the drop in those months and that would be the audits.

I second that.. My PERM processing was put on hold in a fortune 100 company for the same reason. Everybody who had applied for PERM towards end of 07 were audited big time. All GC processing was shut for the next two years.. Yup.. Im stuck at Feb 2010 PD, glad they did apply as my 6 year term was coming to an end.

[qesehmk]

Agree that it corroborates CO's earlier statements very well.

In the Jan 19 meeting Mr. CO, did say that USCIS had reported shockingly low numbers and half of what they expected. So in some ways, this report corroborates it.


Q, you forget the impact of massive audits that were started in late Oct 2007 going for a few months. Being an Oct 07 filer whose perm was audited and later denied in 09, I have met and spoken to a lot of people who faced those audits. I think it was like 40% of the PERMs filed then were audited. While I don't get much of everything else discussed here by you and other gurus alike, I can stick my neck out and say that this is not a discrepancy. There is a perfectly valid explanation for the drop in those months and that would be the audits.
Thanks. This makes sense. Could be true.

[pdfeb09]

The inventory is as of Jan 12, 2012, Q. It has data till March 15, 2008 PDs (Dec bulletin)+ some beyond that (1 week or so of Jan bulletin). So EB2IC 2008 demand is not completely reflected in the inventory.

Absolutely.. we haven't seen the bulk of 2008 and none of 2009 yet .. it is,however, great for March bulletin, unless CO has access to a more current Inventory data .. which reflects the Jan filers numbers ..

[piratla]

I remember there was some trouble with PERM filings by Microsoft and they had to withdraw (or cancel) all of them.

That was the case only for PERMS starting Apr~May 2008. Since MSFT laid off employees in Jan 2009, pretty much 'all' of those PERMS were audited. Infact after the lay offs, MSFT didn't file PERMS(very few exceptions) for all of 2009 and up until mid 2010.

[mrdeeds]

Since MSFT laid off employees in Jan 2009, pretty much 'all' of those PERMS were audited.

You mean Jan 2008, right?

[piratla]

Nope. Jan 2009. ~5000 employees were let go.

Here is a link
http://minimsft.blogspot.com/2009/01/microsoft-layoff-2009-now-what.html

[harapatta]

All the Very Best to ALL who are eagerly waiting for March VB...

[natvyas]

Not just employers even law firm had run into an issue with USCIS. Fragomen was all over the internet because of what they were suggesting to their clients. Hence USCIS had decided to audit all perms submitted by Fragomen.

Even my case with PD Mar 08 was audited by got approved.

[kd2008]

suninphx,

Here are mine:

-- VB ------- Priority Dates ---------------- Jan 03 -- Jan 17 -- Jan 31
October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 --- 100 ----- 107 ----- 113 (+6 cases)
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 --- 238 ----- 278 ----- 331 (+53 cases)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 --- 191 ----- 286 ----- 336 (+50 cases)
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 ---- 15 ----- 176 ----- 310 (+134 cases)


Based on the Jan 2012 inventory, new demand till Dec VB is ~8.4K. This gives a very early trackitt ratio of 9.3%

[srividya]

EB3 ROW Inventory
As of Oct'2010 --> 32,365
As of Jan 12' 2012 --> 29,388

only 3000 Reduction at USCIS & Field offices per one Quarter

[suninphx]

The inventory is as of Jan 12, 2012, Q. It has data till March 15, 2008 PDs (Dec bulletin)+ some beyond that (1 week or so of Jan bulletin). So EB2IC 2008 demand is not completely reflected in the inventory.

For argument sake if we assume that only 30% people filed in first week of Jan , even then full number wont cross 1000?

And if we still want to be conservative and stick to 2200/month of original estimate then looks like in first week only 12-15% people filed. (which I certanily disagree with )

[Pdmar08]

For argument sake if we assume that only 30% people filed in first week of Jan , even then full number wont cross 1000?

And if we still want to be conservative and stick to 2200/month of original estimate then looks like in first week only 12-15% people filed. (which I certanily disagree with )

I still dont get it. I am one of those march 08 filers who filed in Dec 2011.
I am yet to get FP done, am i one of the counts on the report or not?
I havent even got EAD but i dont think that matters.

[kd2008]

For argument sake if we assume that only 30% people filed in first week of Jan , even then full number wont cross 1000?

And if we still want to be conservative and stick to 2200/month of original estimate then looks like in first week only 12-15% people filed. (which I certanily disagree with )

Suninphx,

I think USCIS waited till Jan 12, because it thought that for all the cases till Dec 31 to show up in the inventory it takes 7-8 working business days, but of course some cases in the first day or two of Jan were also showing up in the inventory. There is not much to make of it. Don't try to estimate Jan VB demand by using the data from this inventory.

[Pdmar08]

Nope. Jan 2009. ~5000 employees were let go.

Here is a link
http://minimsft.blogspot.com/2009/01/microsoft-layoff-2009-now-what.html

Many if not most of them withdrew after denial in audit and applied fresh in 2011.

[tnayar78]

Can some one explain if inventory data is till January 12 2012 then how come 2009 January PD is showing "34", 2009JanPD should be filing from February, were these applications incorrectly filed in January instead of Feb.

[srividya]

EB2 ROW used to consume 35K per year in 2008/2009 ( EB2I&C got 10-14K with 6K reqular Quota & 8K spillover from EB1) was down to < 20K now so demand destruction is close to 50%.



Suninphx,

I think USCIS waited till Jan 12, because it thought that for all the cases till Dec 31 to show up in the inventory it takes 7-8 working business days, but of course some cases in the first day or two of Jan were also showing up in the inventory. There is not much to make of it. Don't try to estimate Jan VB demand by using the data from this inventory.

[Gclongwait]

I still dont get it. I am one of those march 08 filers who filed in Dec 2011.
I am yet to get FP done, am i one of the counts on the report or not?
I havent even got EAD but i dont think that matters.

I am guessing. I am in the same boat but if they are counting people who filed in first week of Jan the FP shouldnt matter to the counting.

[codesmith]

EB2 ROW used to consume 35K per year in 2008/2009 ( EB2I&C got 10-14K with 6K reqular Quota & 8K spillover from EB1) was down to < 20K now so demand destruction is close to 50%.

Taking a look at the Jan and FEb 2008 figures and the timing of the last update date of the inventory report , I'd guess 700 per month for whole 2008 ie 700 * 12 = 8400
What do you think Sun/Kd ?

[suninphx]

Taking a look at the Jan and FEb 2008 figures and the timing of the last update date of the inventory report , I'd guess 700 per month for whole 2008 ie 700 * 12 = 8400
What do you think Sun/Kd ?

If total 2008 filings are indeed less than 10000 then that would be good news for every one.

Personally I am not very comfortable with such low demand numbers. Gives me feeling that some thing has not still been accounted for. May be next inventory gives better picture.
Lets wait to hear from experts.

[kumar78]

My 2 cents...Looking at the January Filing Trackers on Trackitt, ~75% of them have a RD before Jan 11th. Though this is not a strong indicator to say that inventory report captured 75% of demand for 2008, but its a strong indicator that more people try to send their documents as soon as they are current.

Kumar