EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[fudge-it]

I skimmed through willywonka's analysis., nice username btw..
I did not find anywhere that what is last PD that will get GC..
Is this something that cannot be done now due to insufficient data?
Can this be guestimated/estimated..?

Thanks...

[gkjppp]

I skimmed through willywonka's analysis., nice username btw..
I did not find anywhere that what is last PD that will get GC..
Is this something that cannot be done now due to insufficient data?
Can this be guestimated/estimated..?

Thanks...

You will get ur gc before oct 2012

[willywonka]

I skimmed through willywonka's analysis., nice username btw..
I did not find anywhere that what is last PD that will get GC..
Is this something that cannot be done now due to insufficient data?
Can this be guestimated/estimated..?

Thanks...

Its Hard to estimate that without seeing the latest inventory data. But my guesstimate is that everyone in eb2I with a priority date less than march 30 2008 should comfortably get their GC by Sep 2012. It could be better but it's not likely that it will be any worse.

[vizcard]

Its Hard to estimate that without seeing the latest inventory data. But my guesstimate is that everyone in eb2I with a priority date less than march 30 2008 should comfortably get their GC by Sep 2012. It could be better but it's not likely that it will be any worse.

This is true assuming HR3012 doesn't happen.

[funnysummer2005]

Hi Guys- sorry had a quick questions. Moderators pls re-post to appropriate forum. Need a quick answer and this thread has most visibility, hence posting here.

In Form I-485,

Part 4 is Accomodation for Individuals with Disabilities and Impairements.

Do we need to leave it blank or check NO if we have no disability/impairement.

Because the question asks Are you requesting an coomodation because of your disability and/or impairement. So technically, you could have a disability and still not request accomodation or in the other case have no disability/impairement.

Maybe i am reading too much into it. I am just wanting to make sure everything is exact.

It would help if people tell me what they have put here.

Thanks,



I've read instances where they are very strict on forms being imcomplete

[Pundit Arjun]

Check NO, if not applicable. DO NOT LEAVE IT BLANK.


Hi Guys- sorry had a quick questions. Moderators pls re-post to appropriate forum. Need a quick answer and this thread has most visibility, hence posting here.

In Form I-485,

Part 4 is Accomodation for Individuals with Disabilities and Impairements.

Do we need to leave it blank or check NO if we have no disability/impairement.

Because the question asks Are you requesting an coomodation because of your disability and/or impairement. So technically, you could have a disability and still not request accomodation or in the other case have no disability/impairement.

Maybe i am reading too much into it. I am just wanting to make sure everything is exact.

It would help if people tell me what they have put here.

Thanks,



I've read instances where they are very strict on forms being imcomplete

[tatikonda]

Hey.I see couple of posts here..saying that,
if there no movement in coming VB (March VB, April,) then we can only expect next big movement in Oct 2014. .

However, I was wondering that, next FY 2013, starting Oct 2012, November 2012 VB should have another movement, Correct ??
Why people are saying it would be in Oct 2014 ?? Why can't we have movement in Oct 2012 VB or Oct 2013 VB. Please throw some light here !!!

[GCKnowHow]

Here is a summary new filers maybe interested in. I posted the same on trackitt too.


** Likes likes likes and super likes ** (Used to facebook too much :) )
Very good summary. Awesome.

I thought there would to lots of filings in Jan and by the time March VB is out, USCIS would be flooded with applications already. Jan VB was a big move. May be I'm wrong, I'm still a newbie to these, you look like an expert.

[pdfeb09]

Here is a summary new filers maybe interested in. I posted the same on trackitt too.

..........

Good Luck to All!!!

This is a great post .. Thanks WillyWonka !

[Spectator]

Hey.I see couple of posts here..saying that, .

However, I was wondering that, next FY 2012, starting Oct 2012 or November 2012 VB should have another movement, Correct ??
Why people are saying it would be in Oct 2014 ?? Why can't we have movement in Oct 2012 VB or Oct 2013 VB. Please throw some light here !!!tatikonda,

Note they said BIG movement.

The Cut Off Dates can only be moved forward as much as there are visas available.

At the moment, we are in a very unusual situation where the previous Demand has virtually been exhausted. As a result, the Cut Off Dates can be moved forward in large amounts, because it will take 4-6 months for those new cases to be adjudicated and request a visa number.

Fast forward to October 2012. By that time, all cases up to the April VB will have been adjudicated.

Lets say that represents 50k new cases. If 10k old cases remained at the beginning of the FY, that is 60k cases in total.

Let's further say that 25k visas were available in FY2012 - that leaves 35k cases pre-adjudicated going into October 2012 (FY2013).

That is more than the number of available visas, so a Cut Off Date will need to be set to just cover the availability for that month. That will move slowly forward throughout FY2013 as further visas become available.

Fast forward to October 2013 (FY2014). Let's say 25k visas were also available in FY2013. From the original 60k, 2 years at 25k = 50k would have been used, so 10k backlog would remain going into October 2013.

At some point before the backlog is exhausted, the Cut off Dates can again be moved forward in larger amounts, because again, they won't actually request a visa for 4-6 months.

The further the Cut Off Dates move forward this year before retrogression, the longer the wait for them to surpass the latest date again. For example, if the Cut Off Dates move forward a further year to 01JAN11, that could be a total Demand 80k, including existing cases.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Here are follow up numbers as on Jan 03, 2012:


Jan - July 2007 --- 789

Aug07- Mar 08 ----445

I know these are still early days but numbers are still significantly low. I will post the numbers again after two weeks and then take your help to figure out how to interpret those(if you think data to be good enough to be discussed at that point)


suninphx,

Here is an update from my side as of today (Jan 3, 2012) for cases Received by USCIS from October 01, 2011 onwards :

October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 -- 100 cases
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 --- 15 cases

Cases for October VB have virtually dried up, but cases for all other VBs continue to be added daily. I have removed many duplicates in the data, so these are the net figures.

I will update when you next post progress.


Thanks Spec! I will post updated numbers in about 2 weeks.suninphx,

Two weeks further on, here are my figures as of Jan 17, 2012 for Trackitt EB2-I Primary cases Received by USCIS from October 01, 2011 onwards :

October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 -- 107 cases
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 278 cases
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 286 cases
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 -- 176 cases

October and November numbers are already slightly higher than I was expecting, but my assumptions may be slightly wrong. There is no way to test them at present.

[mesan123]

Spec,

nice explantion. For say the mar bulletin moves to jan 2011( which i pray doesnt stop there...being my priority date at feb 2011) . people from jan 2011 have to wait for defnitely some where around end of 2014 or 2015 for the dates to move right :( ....is my assumption correct .

my assumption is that each year we have 25k visa's available ...then it will take 3 years atleast reduce the demand data by 75K.





tatikonda,

Note they said BIG movement.

The Cut Off Dates can only be moved forward as much as there are visas available.

At the moment, we are in a very unusual situation where the previous Demand has virtually been exhausted. As a result, the Cut Off Dates can be moved forward in large amounts, because it will take 4-6 months for those new cases to be adjudicated and request a visa number.

Fast forward to October 2012. By that time, all cases up to the April VB will have been adjudicated.

Lets say that represents 50k new cases. If 10k old cases remained at the beginning of the FY, that is 60k cases in total.

Let's further say that 25k visas were available in FY2012 - that leaves 35k cases pre-adjudicated going into October 2012 (FY2013).

That is more than the number of available visas, so a Cut Off Date will need to be set to just cover the availability for that month. That will move slowly forward throughout FY2013 as further visas become available.

Fast forward to October 2013 (FY2014). Let's say 25k visas were also available in FY2013. From the original 60k, 2 years at 25k = 50k would have been used, so 10k backlog would remain going into October 2013.

At some point before the backlog is exhausted, the Cut off Dates can again be moved forward in larger amounts, because again, they won't actually request a visa for 4-6 months.

The further the Cut Off Dates move forward this year before retrogression, the longer the wait for them to surpass the latest date again. For example, if the Cut Off Dates move forward a further year to 01JAN11, that could be a total Demand 80k, including existing cases.

[Spectator]

mesan,

I don't really want to speculate, but your timescale looks right for the figures you've used. The dates will probably move forward slightly before the numbers are exhausted.

Who knows, maybe CO will have a new trick up his sleeve!

It's just how I see it and why I don't think people should expect the the same movement to be repeated at the beginning of FY2013 as we have seen recently.

[mesan123]

Thanks for the reply... i agree with your post.. few more years of wait


mesan,

I don't really want to speculate, but your timescale looks right for the figures you've used. The dates will probably move forward slightly before the numbers are exhausted.

Who knows, maybe CO will have a new trick up his sleeve!

It's just how I see it and why I don't think people should expect the the same movement to be repeated at the beginning of FY2013 as we have seen recently.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Two weeks further on, here are my figures as of Jan 17, 2012 for Trackitt EB2-I Primary cases Received by USCIS from October 01, 2011 onwards :

October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 -- 107 cases
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 278 cases
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 286 cases
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 -- 176 cases

October and November numbers are already slightly higher than I was expecting, but my assumptions may be slightly wrong. There is no way to test them at present.

Spec,

Thanks!

Here are my number

Jan - July 2007 --- 811
Aug07- Mar 08 ----585

Though Aug 07- Mar 08 numbers are steadily increasing they have tapered off in last few days. Eventually once things settle , I do expect Aug 07- Mar 08 numbers less than about 100 compared to Jan -Jul 2007. Also, trackitt has become relevant (again) because of rapid movment IMO. So trackitt % representation should by closer to the historic one now.

Will follow up by end of Jan.

[tatikonda]

Spec,

Thanks for quick reply. I appreciate your time, efforts and willingness to share knowledge.
Kudos to you !!

one more quick question,

According to your reply
Let's further say that 25k visas were available in FY2012 - that leaves 35k cases pre-adjudicated going into October 2012 (FY2013).
So, if USCIS wanted to have 50k cases onhand, So for further 15K cases they might have a small movement ( 3 or 4 Months ) .. Correct ??

Thank you



tatikonda,

Note they said BIG movement.

The Cut Off Dates can only be moved forward as much as there are visas available.

At the moment, we are in a very unusual situation where the previous Demand has virtually been exhausted. As a result, the Cut Off Dates can be moved forward in large amounts, because it will take 4-6 months for those new cases to be adjudicated and request a visa number.

Fast forward to October 2012. By that time, all cases up to the April VB will have been adjudicated.

Lets say that represents 50k new cases. If 10k old cases remained at the beginning of the FY, that is 60k cases in total.

Let's further say that 25k visas were available in FY2012 - that leaves 35k cases pre-adjudicated going into October 2012 (FY2013).

That is more than the number of available visas, so a Cut Off Date will need to be set to just cover the availability for that month. That will move slowly forward throughout FY2013 as further visas become available.

Fast forward to October 2013 (FY2014). Let's say 25k visas were also available in FY2013. From the original 60k, 2 years at 25k = 50k would have been used, so 10k backlog would remain going into October 2013.

At some point before the backlog is exhausted, the Cut off Dates can again be moved forward in larger amounts, because again, they won't actually request a visa for 4-6 months.

The further the Cut Off Dates move forward this year before retrogression, the longer the wait for them to surpass the latest date again. For example, if the Cut Off Dates move forward a further year to 01JAN11, that could be a total Demand 80k, including existing cases.

[Dec13th2007]

Nice answers.. I have a typical question, may apply to some mass here.
I am sure most of the employers have exploited folks like us, and now since some of us are getting GC, or at least getting EAD/AP approved, we are getting bit relieved and join other jobs etc...

I personally had a bad taste and gone through some harassment. hence i care less about the employer.

I had a question, while EAD/AP is approved, as some of us progress toward 180 days,
1) Can we take another (2nd) employment (same kind of job) along with the current one before 180 days are completed , on the EAD card? I know some of you may say how will you manage and all, but thats just an operational part, what about the legal issues? do anyone know? has this thought cross anyones mind yet?

if this might not be a right forum , please pardon me.




mysati,

I will try to answer some of these. Not sure I know everything.

#0 - H1B doesn't become instantly invalid. USCIS says that one needs to leave country immediately but in reality is quite lenient if the person finds another job.
#1 - If one had EAD and 485 is pending - then the person can legally stay until 485 is adjudicated. If employer withdraws 140 then 485 will of course be rejected. So post 180 days from 485 filing you are safe. But you MUST have a job in same or similar category the day 485 is adjudicated.
#2 Yes with EAD you can search another job/
#3 My understanding EAD is can be renewed without any proof of employment. But I may be wrong.
#4. No there shouldn't be any problems for naturalization if there was a layoff and you used EAD to gain another job in same / similar classification and then received you GC.
#5. Not travelling outside country would be a good idea. Staying on good terms with former employer would be good idea. As soon as you get a job use EAD and if possible transfer H1 and invoke AC21.

Hope this helps.

[Dec13th2007]

Congratulations. Folks.

I have been silent observer so far..
EAD/AP approval mail for me today. I filed in Dec, Dec 2007 priority date.

I have observed one thing, that USCIS has not approved any GC beyond the priority date of Aug 2007.. have you all seen any?


Received EAD approval mails for me and my wife on 1/12/2012. I am a Nov filer with PD Oct 2007.
This is from TSC ( am i the first from TSC?). No cards received yet.

About a week back my attorney mailed AP of my daughter which was approved on Dec 15th. Not sure if EADs goes directly to attorney. No approval emails for AP. If EAD/AP is on same card, why don't they get approved go together?

[qesehmk]

That's the beauty of EAd or GC. You can take as many jobs with whoever.

Only that when the time to adjudicate comes, you should have one job that is same or similar to your underlying 485.


Nice answers.. I have a typical question, may apply to some mass here.
I am sure most of the employers have exploited folks like us, and now since some of us are getting GC, or at least getting EAD/AP approved, we are getting bit relieved and join other jobs etc...

I personally had a bad taste and gone through some harassment. hence i care less about the employer.

I had a question, while EAD/AP is approved, as some of us progress toward 180 days,
1) Can we take another (2nd) employment (same kind of job) along with the current one before 180 days are completed , on the EAD card? I know some of you may say how will you manage and all, but thats just an operational part, what about the legal issues? do anyone know? has this thought cross anyones mind yet?

if this might not be a right forum , please pardon me.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks for quick reply. I appreciate your time, efforts and willingness to share knowledge.
Kudos to you !!

one more quick question,

According to your reply
So, if USCIS wanted to have 50k cases on hand, So for further 15K cases they might have a small movement ( 3 or 4 Months ) .. Correct ??

Thank youI was using figures to demonstrate the concept, although they were quite close.

15k is not a small number. That would require 8 or 9 months or so of movement based on the figures I am using.

[vizcard]

Bottom line coming out of this page... hope HR3012 goes through

[mysati]

Congratulations. Folks.

I have been silent observer so far..
EAD/AP approval mail for me today. I filed in Dec, Dec 2007 priority date.

I have observed one thing, that USCIS has not approved any GC beyond the priority date of Aug 2007.. have you all seen any?

Congrats! That is good news. I think you may be the first Dec filer, from the forum, that has got an EAD/AP approval.

[Dec13th2007]

Thats true Q ! Learning more and more about this.
I just learned that EAD cards will come with AP, however it is just one entry, we can't do multiple entry.. is that true?


That's the beauty of EAd or GC. You can take as many jobs with whoever.

Only that when the time to adjudicate comes, you should have one job that is same or similar to your underlying 485.

[vizcard]

Thats true Q ! Learning more and more about this.
I just learned that EAD cards will come with AP, however it is just one entry, we can't do multiple entry.. is that true?

In the AP form, there's a question whether or not you want a single entry or multiple entry. In general its a multiple entry.

[gkjppp]

Spec,

Thanks!

Here are my number

Jan - July 2007 --- 811
Aug07- Mar 08 ----585

Though Aug 07- Mar 08 numbers are steadily increasing they have tapered off in last few days. Eventually once things settle , I do expect Aug 07- Mar 08 numbers less than about 100 compared to Jan -Jul 2007. Also, trackitt has become relevant (again) because of rapid movment IMO. So trackitt % representation should by closer to the historic one now.

Will follow up by end of Jan.

suninphx, quick question what % of total filers logs their case details into Trackitt?

[kd2008]

suninphx, quick question what % of total filers logs their case details into Trackitt?

Spec reported that the recent value may be 4.5 % ..best values have been up to 7%

[whythiskolaveri]

Hi Guyz... This forum has been really helpful in providing lot of infomation on GC ...

My PD id 08/25/2008 and I sent in my Application on 11- Jan and was received by USCIS on 12th Jan...

How soon do I get my recept notice usually..?

Kolaveri

[Spectator]

suninphx, quick question what % of total filers logs their case details into Trackitt?gkjppp,

Historically, for Primary cases to Actual Approvals in the DOS Reports, the % for EB2-I has been :

FY2009 - 7.63%
FY2010 - 6.72%
FY2011 - 5.38% (educated guess)

More people initially add their case to Trackitt, but never update it with the approval. These become "dead" cases on Trackitt.

So, for applications, if 20% never update to approval, the % would become:

FY2009 - 9.54%
FY2010 - 8.40%
FY2011 - 6.72% (educated guess)

It's actually quite difficult to know the true %.

Of course, the % for different Categories and Countries vary enormously.

[TeddyKoochu]

Trackitt number is around 5% of the estimated demand if I remember correctly. People usually use 7%, but let's be extra conservative and go with 5%.

So for the 8 months between Jul 07-Mar 08, the estimated demand is around 12000 or @1500 per month - much less than the 2500 per month as was postulated.

The 2500 per month flat figure had 300 PM porting baked into it. The actual figure based on the OR of 1 was 2200. If the OR is going to be .8 then it becomes 2200 * .8 = 1760. Many people enter their cases in Trackitt when the approval time comes close by so we will see the numbers increase. One interesting trend is that the Dec filers (4.5 months) figure now exceeds the Nov filers (3.5 Months). Many people are still running late on filing thanks to lax employers / attorneys or personal reasons. Let’s wait and see how the Trackitt trend evolves. 1500 per month translates to an OR of 0.68 (1500/2200) from a perm to 485 which might seem very optimistic.

[suninphx]

Trackitt number is around 5% of the estimated demand if I remember correctly. People usually use 7%, but let's be extra conservative and go with 5%.

So for the 8 months between Jul 07-Mar 08, the estimated demand is around 12000 or @1500 per month - much less than the 2500 per month as was postulated.

Yeah my understading is about 5-6% of users are on trackitt. Ofcourse with Spec's post we have much more insight about percentages.

Also the number 2500/month was revised to 2200/month(including porting if I am not wrong). And cases are still getting added to trackitt. So if actual number is between 1500-2200 then it may give some handle on DD.

[Osaka001]

Trackitt number is around 5% of the estimated demand if I remember correctly. People usually use 7%, but let's be extra conservative and go with 5%.

So for the 8 months between Jul 07-Mar 08, the estimated demand is around 12000 or @1500 per month - much less than the 2500 per month as was postulated.

As per PERM numbers , we should have similar numbers from Apr'08-Dec'08, but so far, we could see only 176 cases on trackitt, that means, people didnt file their AoS even after 2 weeks, they have been current, may be they are little lazy after Feb VB.

[suninphx]

The 2500 per month flat figure had 300 PM porting baked into it. The actual figure based on the OR of 1 was 2200. If the OR is going to be .8 then it becomes 2200 * .8 = 1760. Many people enter their cases in Trackitt when the approval time comes close by so we will see the numbers increase. One interesting trend is that the Dec filers (4.5 months) figure now exceeds the Nov filers (3.5 Months). Many people are still running late on filing thanks to lax employers / attorneys or personal reasons. Let’s wait and see how the Trackitt trend evolves. 1500 per month translates to an OR of 0.68 (1500/2200) from a perm to 485 which might seem very optimistic.

Teddy,

December filers are expected to be more than Nov filers anyways? Dec VB dates cover dense PERM data.

[06DEC07]

Congrats! That is good news. I think you may be the first Dec filer, from the forum, that has got an EAD/AP approval.

I received my EAD & AP approval y'day.

SC:NSC
PD:12/06/2007
MD:12/01/2011
RD:12/02/2011
ND:12/05/2011
EAD & AP Approved: 01/17/2012
FP: Not yet received.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

December filers are expected to be more than Nov filers anyways? Dec VB dates cover dense PERM data.

Sun by direct proportion of 4.5 - 3.5 months yes, but demand destruction would be more pronounced in 2008. Dec filers would still grow more than Nov lets observer this ratio if it comes closer to 4.5 - 3.5 this will give us some trend on demand destruction before the inventory is published.

[ChampU]

Unless there is a large spike in the # of applications between now and March Bulletin or CO decides to avoid an inventory big enough to sustain for 2+ years, is it safe to assume that we will see another 3-12 month movement ??

[gkjppp]

Trackitt number is around 5% of the estimated demand if I remember correctly. People usually use 7%, but let's be extra conservative and go with 5%.

So for the 8 months between Jul 07-Mar 08, the estimated demand is around 12000 or @1500 per month - much less than the 2500 per month as was postulated.

Dude, were you back from India? so for no news on NVC receipts, we are almost done with Jan.day by day chances to become current is running away< anyway its not in my hand, only thing is i need to renew my H1 may be two more times,i got 2 times 1 year renewal based on 140 approval, 100% based on client letter>. also your attorney told <50% chances for this month movement .Well looking at 12000 makes to think demand destruction worked or may be folks are busy in filing/finding attorney/shots/negotiating with employer. We are not sure on anything.

[suninphx]

Sun by direct proportion of 4.5 - 3.5 months yes, but demand destruction would be more pronounced in 2008. Dec filers would still grow more than Nov lets observer this ratio if it comes closer to 4.5 - 3.5 this will give us some trend on demand destruction before the inventory is published.

IMO we need to consider ratio of PERM numbers for these periods rather than duration ratio.

[Spectator]

Many people enter their cases in Trackitt when the approval time comes close by so we will see the numbers increase. Teddy,

That is an extremely good point and, at the moment, will offset much of the 20% who never update with an approval.

I found that insight very useful.

[TeddyKoochu]

IMO we need to consider ratio of PERM numbers for these periods rather than duration ratio.
Sun the numbers are fairly close to the average for most months they are heavy in Jan and Feb 2008. The 2200 per month figure if you remember is based on the 75 - 25 EB2 - EB3 Split and 2.125 dependent ratio (1 in 8 families having non US born kids). So anyone who has different ratio's will get a lower figure here itself then demand destruction should be applied. Refer the post by Spec in facts and data for details
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India

[vizcard]

It is too early to speculate January demand yet...but the number is still unusually lower. However let's still give it at least a month more before determining the potential demand.

Also as Teddy says, OR of 0.8 looks more or less likely, so between July-07 and Mar'08, @1800 per month is the best estimate right now, which translates to a demand of about 14000. Since around 10K is already given out for EB2-IC, 14K is more or less "remaining", so 15th March 2008 is the last date that will get GC in FY 2012 - right in line with what was predicted.

Unfortunately, this reduces the likelihood of a March movement. The USCIS may finally have received "enough" applications. I have postulated that if we see a demand of over 2000 before the March bulletin, the dates will stall, since that demand is sufficient to consume the monthly spillover. If the date stalls once, it will remain that way (or worse, retrogress) since the demand will continue building up.

Applications doesn't equal demand....officially anyway. Until it becomes actual real demand, they can keep moving dates ahead. I'm not saying whether they will or will not but I don't know if there's enough real demand just yet given the processing times needed to adjudicate applications. I expect some movement in the next bulletin but I don't think it'll be a whole year.

[Osaka001]

Applications doesn't equal demand....officially anyway. Until it becomes actual real demand, they can keep moving dates ahead. I'm not saying whether they will or will not but I don't know if there's enough real demand just yet given the processing times needed to adjudicate applications. I expect some movement in the next bulletin but I don't think it'll be a whole year.

As per CO comments in Feb VB, "Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off"

They may consider I-485 filings.

[vgraj1]

[QUOTE=sportsfan33;18917]I agree with that, and I believe CO will be willing to use every trick in his book to move the date forward. However as we are getting reports about people starting to receive EADs and as someone from Nov'11 filing also received his GC, there is some sign that the USCIS processing has picked up. They don't have to process all the November/December batch. Even if they process a fraction of those and show a demand of 2K, that's enough to stop the movement.

"Good analysis sportsfan! Please also include March spillover of 5K visas coming into EB2 I pool. Even if USCIS processing DQ cases requiring visas pick up, it may not cover the monthly quota plus 5K visas. So, it does look a further movement in March 2012 and possibly in April 2012 is possible; hopefully it goes up to April 2011 PD !"

[Spectator]

Sun the numbers are fairly close to the average for most months they are heavy in Jan and Feb 2008. The 2200 per month figure if you remember is based on the 75 - 25 EB2 - EB3 Split and 2.125 dependent ratio (1 in 8 families having non US born kids). So anyone who has different ratio's will get a lower figure here itself then demand destruction should be applied. Refer the post by Spec in facts and data for details
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-IndiaTeddy,

I couldn't find a good explanation in the post you linked to.

I have created an explanation in the FACTS & DATA section here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?656-Overall-Ratio-Transformation-Factor-Demand-Destruction-An-Explanation-of-Terms)

Feel free to edit or add to it if you feel it doesn't adequately explain the concepts.

[TheTexan]

Sorry for posting here guys but I wanted to know as to how soon do you get (if at all) RFE? If you get your EAD is it safe to assume that all requirements have been satisfied?

[nishant2200]

Sorry for posting here guys but I wanted to know as to how soon do you get (if at all) RFE? If you get your EAD is it safe to assume that all requirements have been satisfied?

How soon you get depends on postal delivery time. Generally would say a week.

You cannot assume all good if you get EAD, you can still get RFE for 485. I in fact think, different officers adjudicate EAD and 485. 485 would go to experienced senior officers, while EAD/AP is more of a junior level kind of work.

[Desperate8]

PD : OCT-08-2008
ND : JAN -04 -2012
RD :JAN -03 -2012

Got our fingerprinting notices for both me and my spouse scheduled on Feb 03
Just wanted to notify the group and know if I can go for FP earlier (we might end up in hospital around feb 03 for a little surprise)

TSC - Dallas Center

[dec2007]

PD : OCT-08-2008
ND : JAN -04 -2012
RD :JAN -03 -2012

Got our fingerprinting notices for both me and my spouse scheduled on Feb 03
Just wanted to notify the group and know if I can go for FP earlier (we might end up in hospital around feb 03 for a little surprise)

TSC - Dallas Center
Man..that was very fast to get the fp notice....i have applied in dec3rd week NSC, may be that is th delay in getting fp notices...

U can call the centre and confirm if they allow early fp.Good luck

[Desperate8]

Man..that was very fast to get the fp notice....i have applied in dec3rd week NSC, may be that is th delay in getting fp notices...

U can call the centre and confirm if they allow early fp.Good luck

Thank You , although I was expecting a delay as I know we might not be able to make it - moreover Feb 3rd is the date I did'nt want it to be on :)
For you did you follow up with the service center , make sure that NSC with your PD no body have got their FP notice.

Hoping to get things moving the same way and I get my GC - I am about to retire :)

[vedu]

The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the November 2011 figures. I-140 receipts (total 37582) during June, 2011 -November, 2011 are significantly less than the receipts (total 47597) during June, 2010 - November, 2010. Additionally, the difference between the two totals keeps increasing month after month. Considering the four months processing time for I-140 to actual green card conversion, this reduction in receipts will have a positive effect on the spill over for the current year.


I-140 receipts (total 31697) during June, 2011 to October, 2011 are significantly less as compared to the receipts (total 39758) during June, 2010 to October, 2010. If we consider 4 months processing time for I-140 to actual green card conversion, this reduction in I-140 receipts will have a positive effect on the spill over for the current year.

[TorreyPines]

Hi All,

Given HR3012's passing in house, what are the chances that EB2ROW gets aggressive this fiscal year in pursuing their GCs? How much impact that may cause? If they manage to kick-off PERMS in Jan/Feb'12, they might be just-in-time to affect our SO numbers. Quarterly SO might help reduce the impact in short term though.


The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the November 2011 figures. I-140 receipts (total 37582) during June, 2011 -November, 2011 are significantly less than the receipts (total 47597) during June, 2010 - November, 2010. Additionally, the difference between the two totals keeps increasing month after month. Considering the four months processing time for I-140 to actual green card conversion, this reduction in receipts will have a positive effect on the spill over for the current year.

[qblogfan]

My Received Date is 12/27, but I already got my Fingerprint Appointment of Janaury 18th on January 10th. I did FP yesterday afternoon.

Just as what Q has said in his pervious posts: TSC is damn fast on Fingerprint, but slow on EAD/AP. NSC is damn fast on EAD/AP, but slow on Fingerprint.

My observation is that TSC can give you FP notice as fast as 10-14 days, but EAD/AP as slow as 2-3 months. NSC can give you EAD/AP as fast as 1 month, but FP notice as slow as 2 months.


Man..that was very fast to get the fp notice....i have applied in dec3rd week NSC, may be that is th delay in getting fp notices...

U can call the centre and confirm if they allow early fp.Good luck

[RRRRRR]

Thank You , although I was expecting a delay as I know we might not be able to make it - moreover Feb 3rd is the date I did'nt want it to be on :)
For you did you follow up with the service center , make sure that NSC with your PD no body have got their FP notice.

Hoping to get things moving the same way and I get my GC - I am about to retire :)

You can definitely get it done earlier, Go to them and explain them the situation, I am sure they will let you in without any issues. Thanks

[sandeep11]

Per my experience there shouldn't be any issue. I went in a for an early walk-in and there were no questions asked. They are very accomodative. In your case you should be fine because they would understand your situation. Go ahead with no second thoughts and you should be done with your FP. Good Luck & Congratulations!!!



PD : OCT-08-2008
ND : JAN -04 -2012
RD :JAN -03 -2012

Got our fingerprinting notices for both me and my spouse scheduled on Feb 03
Just wanted to notify the group and know if I can go for FP earlier (we might end up in hospital around feb 03 for a little surprise)

TSC - Dallas Center

[qblogfan]

I heard Dallas office is not too easy to get walk in, but I think you should try it!


Per my experience there shouldn't be any issue. I went in a for an early walk-in and there were no questions asked. They are very accomodative. In your case you should be fine because they would understand your situation. Go ahead with no second thoughts and you should be done with your FP. Good Luck & Congratulations!!!

[kd2008]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=5&charttype=1

21K filing in TSC and NSC for I-485 in Nov. These are not strictly EB filings ..they include a few other categories too. YOY it has not increased much. only 2800 filings more.

[devi_pd]

Nov filings in NSC and TSC are 3.3K more than the Oct filings. So the EB2 IC Nov apps could be in this range. Lets see how the Dec numbers come out.

[nishant2200]

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=5&charttype=1

21K filing in TSC and NSC for I-485 in Nov. These are not strictly EB filings ..they include a few other categories too. YOY it has not increased much. only 2800 filings more.

OH Law firm website says that TSC and NSC only do EB 485 not family based. See their breaking news. it says: "Note: National total seems include all types of I-485 and not just employment-based. TSC and NSC figures include only EB-485 since they do not process family I-485 cases"

[kolugc]

So does this mean, the demand was less in Nov? I mean then it should be further movement right? Or we can't just assume that by this numbers?

[Spectator]

OH Law firm website says that TSC and NSC only do EB 485 not family based. See their breaking news. it says: "Note: National total seems include all types of I-485 and not just employment-based. TSC and NSC figures include only EB-485 since they do not process family I-485 cases"While it is true that NSC & TSC do not deal with FB cases, they don't just deal with EB cases either.

There is a post from way back which explains what each Service Center deals with, but I certainly remember TSC and NSC also handle Refugee and Asylee I-485 cases between them.

The new USCIS Quarterly All Form Types Performance Data report does split the data down to show EB figures. That should be published by the end of February.

In FY2011 EB I-485 receipts accounted for about 36% of EB/Ref/Asy cases. That should increase in FY2012, assuming Ref/Asy stay fairly constant.

[kd2008]

OH Law firm website says that TSC and NSC only do EB 485 not family based. See their breaking news. it says: "Note: National total seems include all types of I-485 and not just employment-based. TSC and NSC figures include only EB-485 since they do not process family I-485 cases"

Come on Nishant, I thought you would be better than this.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextchannel=fe529c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a 1RCRD&vgnextoid=eb7b5cdc2c463110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCRD

TSC and NSC process all of the following:

You are filing based on:

1. A pending or approved I-360 for an International Organization Employee or Family Member

You must include a copy of the Form I-797, showing that your Form I-360 was accepted or approved.

2. An approved I-360 for a:

Special Immigrant Religious Worker
Panama Canal Company Employment
U.S. Government in Canal Zone Employment;
Special Immigrant Physician;
International Broadcasters

You must include a copy of the Form I-797C, Notice of Approval, showing that your Form I-360 was approved.

3. Asylum Status

4. Refugee Status

5. HRIFA Dependent

6. A pending or approved I-140

You must include a copy of the Form I-797, showing that your Form I-140 was accepted or approved.

7. An approved Form I-526, Immigrant Petition by Alien Entrepreneur. (Note: You cannot file Forms I-526 and I-485 concurrently. You must include a copy of the Form I-797C Notice of Approval, showing that your Form I-526 was approved.)

You are filing with Form I-140.

You are filing as an Afghan or Iraqi Translator.

If you are filing Form I-485 based on an approved Form I-360 for Afghan or Iraqi Translators, you must include a copy of the Form I-797C, Notice of Action, showing that your Form I-360 was approved.

Note: You may not concurrently file Forms I-360 and Form I-485 for this classification.)

[nishant2200]

While it is true that NSC & TSC do not deal with FB cases, they don't just deal with EB cases either.

There is a post from way back which explains what each Service Center deals with, but I certainly remember TSC and NSC also handle Refugee and Asylee I-485 cases between them.

The new USCIS Quarterly All Form Types Performance Data report does split the data down to show EB figures. That should be published by the end of February.

cool nice to know, and another point we noticed is last year the refugee asylee took more than 140k visas, so it's no small volume either.

[nishant2200]

kd2008, we are all just discussing here, and collectively coming to a knowledge. I have no personal stake in anything. Please be polite.


Come on Nishant, I thought you would be better than this.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextchannel=fe529c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a 1RCRD&vgnextoid=eb7b5cdc2c463110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCRD

TSC and NSC process all of the following:

You are filing based on:

1. A pending or approved I-360 for an International Organization Employee or Family Member

You must include a copy of the Form I-797, showing that your Form I-360 was accepted or approved.

2. An approved I-360 for a:

Special Immigrant Religious Worker
Panama Canal Company Employment
U.S. Government in Canal Zone Employment;
Special Immigrant Physician;
International Broadcasters

You must include a copy of the Form I-797C, Notice of Approval, showing that your Form I-360 was approved.

3. Asylum Status

4. Refugee Status

5. HRIFA Dependent

6. A pending or approved I-140

You must include a copy of the Form I-797, showing that your Form I-140 was accepted or approved.

7. An approved Form I-526, Immigrant Petition by Alien Entrepreneur. (Note: You cannot file Forms I-526 and I-485 concurrently. You must include a copy of the Form I-797C Notice of Approval, showing that your Form I-526 was approved.)

You are filing with Form I-140.

You are filing as an Afghan or Iraqi Translator.

If you are filing Form I-485 based on an approved Form I-360 for Afghan or Iraqi Translators, you must include a copy of the Form I-797C, Notice of Action, showing that your Form I-360 was approved.

Note: You may not concurrently file Forms I-360 and Form I-485 for this classification.)

[kd2008]

cool nice to know, and another point we noticed is last year the refugee asylee took more than 140k visas, so it's no small volume either.

Just look at YOY numbers. The only thing that has changed is the new EB2IC filings. There may be changes in other all filings but the big impact would be from additional filings in this category.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I couldn't find a good explanation in the post you linked to.

I have created an explanation in the FACTS & DATA section here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?656-Overall-Ratio-Transformation-Factor-Demand-Destruction-An-Explanation-of-Terms)

Feel free to edit or add to it if you feel it doesn't adequately explain the concepts.

Spec thanks for your post, very well detailed. This gives clarity to everyone not only on the terminology but more importantly on what is OR and demand destruction.

[mrdeeds]

Just look at YOY numbers. The only thing that has changed is the new EB2IC filings. There may be changes in other all filings but the big impact would be from additional filings in this category.

So based on comments above and Spec's historical ratio mention of 36%, does this calculation make sense?

Let's just look at Nov filings. The surge in filings would have been from date movement from Jul 15 2007 to Nov 1 2007.

From http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India, the perm numbers for EB2IC are

July (assuming 50% since date is from 15th) - 600
Aug - 2100
Sep - 2294
Oct - 2630
Total - 7624

Total receipts in Nov 2011 at TSC = 9013
Apply Specs ratio = 9013 *.36 = 3244

Total receipts in Nov 2011 at NSC = 11964
Apply Specs ratio = 11964 *.36 = 4307

Total EB apps at NSC + TSC in Nov 11 is 4307 + 3244 = 7551

The number 7624 and 7551 are awfully close suggesting very less DD? Actually, that's probably not true as Spec's ratio is for all EB and not just EB2IC. Is there a way to find out how many non EB2 apps were filed or can we use the OR or some other ratio? OR is probably is not usable here as that already accounts for DD.

[tendlya]

One quick question about filing I485 for dependent spouse. My wife is on H1B currently. She had changed job couple of years back. My question is do we need to submit I797 copies of her all the jobs she has worked on until now or just the most recent one? Please feel free to move this question to relevant forum afterwards.

[suninphx]

So based on comments above and Spec's historical ratio mention of 36%, does this calculation make sense?

Let's just look at Nov filings. The surge in filings would have been from date movement from Jul 15 2007 to Nov 1 2007.

From http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India, the perm numbers for EB2IC are

July (assuming 50% since date is from 15th) - 600
Aug - 2100
Sep - 2294
Oct - 2630
Total - 7624

Total receipts in Nov 2011 at TSC = 9013
Apply Specs ratio = 9013 *.36 = 3244

Total receipts in Nov 2011 at NSC = 11964
Apply Specs ratio = 11964 *.36 = 4307

Total EB apps at NSC + TSC in Nov 11 is 4307 + 3244 = 7551

The number 7624 and 7551 are awfully close suggesting very less DD? Actually, that's probably not true as Spec's ratio is for all EB and not just EB2IC. Is there a way to find out how many non EB2 apps were filed or can we use the OR or some other ratio? OR is probably is not usable here as that already accounts for DD.

The filing numbers include ALL countries i.e. EBIC+ROW. So we need to know IC numbers to be able to comment on DD yet. (assuming all other assumption in your post are close to reality).

update: Based on what I read from Spec's post it seems like these filings include other catagories too than EB. So actuaL EB-IC number would lesser than what you calculated IMO.

[Spectator]

mrdeeds,

I'm not sure how far the calculation can go because of some missing information to deduce the EB2-IC component, but I did want to say it is an interesting approach.

Welcome to the forum.

[SIII140]

Urgent!

I am sorry for posting this question on this topic, but I am very close to filing my papers and would really appreciate any help on clearing my dilemma:

My priority date is current per February bulletin and I was going to file concurrently for I-140 Successor in Interest and I-485. All documenation is ready, but the lawyer says it's better if we first file for I-140 and get the receipt # and then file for I-485. Normally, I would be OK with it. But the problem is that sometimes I-140 receipt takes too long and I don't want to get in a situation where we are waiting for I-140 receipt that gets delayed for some reason and I can't file my I-485 in this small window of opportunity because I dont have I-140 receipt. What shall I do? Any suggestions?

Thanks in advance your help.

[ChampU]

One quick question about filing I485 for dependent spouse. My wife is on H1B currently. She had changed job couple of years back. My question is do we need to submit I797 copies of her all the jobs she has worked on until now or just the most recent one? Please feel free to move this question to relevant forum afterwards.


My attorney had asked us to provide copies of ALL immigration documents ((past and present)I-20s, I-797s, OPT cards) for every applicant (Primary+Dependents).

[mrdeeds]

mrdeeds,

I'm not sure how far the calculation can go because of some missing information to deduce the EB2-IC component, but I did want to say it is an interesting approach.

Welcome to the forum.

Thanks Spec for the welcome! This is the best forum out there with the analysis and the amazing posts by you and others that explain the process for newbies like me.

I understand the missing data point for EB2IC. Approaching another way, is there any data available to deduce the ROW component and hence get the EB2IC number?



update: Based on what I read spec's post it seems like these filings include other catagories too than EB. So actuaL EB-ic number would lesser than what you calculated IMO.

Suninphx, thanks for your reply. As I read Spec's message, I thought 36% is the EB(IC+ROW) component of all I-485 (including asylum etc. categories).

[suninphx]

Thanks Spec for the welcome! This is the best forum out there with the analysis and the amazing posts by you and others that explain the process for newbies like me.

I understand the missing data point for EB2IC. Approaching another way, is there any data available to deduce the ROW component and hence get the EB2IC number?



Suninphx, thanks for your reply. As I read Spec's message, I thought 36% is the EB(IC+ROW) component of all I-485 (including asylum etc. categories).

I think you are right.

[kd2008]

User ntemp on trackitt:

Priority Date: 07 Oct 2007
Application Filed: 01 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 02 Nov 2011
I-485 Approval Date: 17 Jan 2012

Primary applicant

[GC-Utopic]

My attorney had asked us to provide copies of ALL immigration documents ((past and present)I-20s, I-797s, OPT cards) for every applicant (Primary+Dependents).

Technically, you need to send all the documentation proving your status since your last entry ( time before your latest I94 does not matter),

read about 245 (k) provision.

[suninphx]

User ntemp on trackitt:

Priority Date: 07 Oct 2007
Application Filed: 01 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 02 Nov 2011
I-485 Approval Date: 17 Jan 2012

Primary applicant

wow ...super

[kd2008]

Thanks Spec for the welcome! This is the best forum out there with the analysis and the amazing posts by you and others that explain the process for newbies like me.

I understand the missing data point for EB2IC. Approaching another way, is there any data available to deduce the ROW component and hence get the EB2IC number?

I did perform your analysis for Nov. 2010, I got 6529. Assuming that the only increase in Nov 2011 was EB2IC and other other EB category filings were the same - a big assumption,

We get 7551 - 6529 = 1022. That is indeed a very low number.

other approach:
TSC + NSC Nov. 2010 = 17417
TSC + NSC Nov. 2011 = 20975
Increase = 3558 ...attributed all to EB2IC filings

[mrdeeds]

I understand the missing data point for EB2IC. Approaching another way, is there any data available to deduce the ROW component and hence get the EB2IC number?


So just for kicks, I am looking at Spec's http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?270-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-ROW-Mexico-amp-Philippines

Assume that PERM approvals were taking 3 months in 2011. Assume that 140 another 2 months, 5 months total. So a ROW + Mexico / Philippines person filing 485 in November 2011 would have a PD of say June 2011. Looking at the data above, that's 1200 PERM total ROW apps. Conservatively, let's assume that the EB(everything except EB3) / EB3 ratio is 50% for ROW. Since the cutoff for EB3 ROW is in 2006, they would not be filing 485s in Nov 2011. So lets say 50% * 1200 = 600 is the number of EB1+EB2+any other current category filers in Nov 2011. Going back to my previous calculation, the number of EB2IC then becomes 7551 - 600 = 6951.

So of the 7624 IC PERMS that were filed between Jul 15 - Nov 1 2011, 6951 485s were filed. That's essentially the OR as I understand it. So the OR = 6951/7624 = 0.91.

So based on http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?656-Overall-Ratio-Transformation-Factor-Demand-Destruction-An-Explanation-of-Terms, the DD would be 100% - (0.91/1.275) = 28.6% which is smack in between Teddy's 21% & Spec's 37%. Note that 1.275 here is Teddy's TF.

I don't know..maybe I am curve fitting here...

[RRRRRR]

Urgent!

I am sorry for posting this question on this topic, but I am very close to filing my papers and would really appreciate any help on clearing my dilemma:

My priority date is current per February bulletin and I was going to file concurrently for I-140 Successor in Interest and I-485. All documenation is ready, but the lawyer says it's better if we first file for I-140 and get the receipt # and then file for I-485. Normally, I would be OK with it. But the problem is that sometimes I-140 receipt takes too long and I don't want to get in a situation where we are waiting for I-140 receipt that gets delayed for some reason and I can't file my I-485 in this small window of opportunity because I dont have I-140 receipt. What shall I do? Any suggestions?

Thanks in advance your help.

I would suggest to file both I140 and I485 together. you get two benefits with that.
1) Both of them stay together and as far as i know they will be handled by the same officer (this is what happens in TSC). Once the I485 is adjudicated and I140 is approved you will be granted GC.
2) Concurrent filing in TSC may lead to faster approval. Please look at the below link regarding the Pilot Program which TSC had couple of years back. I am not sure if it is still there but there are chances you may get it sooner.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_tscpls.html

Hope this will help. There might be a valid reason why your lawyer doesn't want to file it together. I would suggest follow up with him to find a good reason for not doing the concurrent filing.

Hope this will help

[ChampU]

Technically, you need to send all the documentation proving your status since your last entry ( time before your latest I94 does not matter),

read about 245 (k) provision.

Section 245 (K) enables an applicant to apply for AOS, even if s/he has been out of status or worked without authorization for less than 180 days.

However the USCIS can issue an RFE if there are any gaps in the immigration status. (I personally know of a case where an RFE was issued to explain a gap of 2.5 weeks in status. He got his GC when he explained his situation)

If all documents are available, it is advisable to chronologically include them in your application packet.

My $.02.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for the welcome! This is the best forum out there with the analysis and the amazing posts by you and others that explain the process for newbies like me.

I understand the missing data point for EB2IC. Approaching another way, is there any data available to deduce the ROW component and hence get the EB2IC number?

Suninphx, thanks for your reply. As I read Spec's message, I thought 36% is the EB(IC+ROW) component of all I-485 (including asylum etc. categories).I have been thinking about this approach and have come up with a (pretty dodgy) calculation.

Firstly, lets assume that September 2011 figures represent the baseline. That was a month where the Cut Off Dates had stalled and relatively few new EB2-IC applications would have been submitted.

Secondly, let's assume that the increase in applications is solely due to new EB cases. In this case, the % of EB cases is higher than the normal 36%.

The number of EB cases would actually be ((Total Apps - New Apps) * 36%) + New Apps

October 2011 increase over September 2011 = 1,502
November 2011 increase over September 2011 = 4,917

This gives numbers of EB cases of 7,260 for October 2011 and 10,675 for November 2011. The % of EB cases of the total rises to 41% and 51% respectively.

Those figures also include all EB1 cases and EB2-Non IC cases. The number of new EB3 cases will be extremely low as all Countries are retrogressed before July 2007.

Lets say EB1 will use 36,000 visas this year - that is 3,000 per month.
Lets say EB2-Non IC will use 22,000 visas this year - that is 1,833 per month.

Non EB2-IC cases will therefore represent 4,833 cases per month of the total EB receipts, with EB2-IC being the remainder.

That gives EB2-IC receipts of :

October 2011 = 7,260 - 4,833 = 2,427
November 2011 = 10,675 - 4,833 = 5,842

The calculation has too many assumptions for my liking. I've presented it to stimulate discussion or to help people think about the problem.

[GC-Utopic]

Section 245 (K) enables an applicant to apply for AOS, even if s/he has been out of status or worked without authorization for less than 180 days.

However the USCIS can issue an RFE if there are any gaps in the immigration status. (I personally know of a case where an RFE was issued to explain a gap of 2.5 weeks in status. He got his GC when he explained his situation)

If all documents are available, it is advisable to chronologically include them in your application packet.

My $.02.

excerpts from 245 (k) memo,

(4) Counting against the 180 days timeframe in (d)(1).
(A) General Guidelines. If the adjudicator determines that an employment-based adjustment of status applicant described in (d)(2) above is subject to any of the bars to adjustment of status set forth in Sections 245(c)(2), (c)(7), or (c)(8), then the adjudicator must determine whether the aggregate period in which the alien failed to continuously maintain lawful status, worked without authorization, or otherwise violated the terms and conditions of the alien’s admission since the date of alien’s last lawful admission to the United States is 180 days or less.
The guidance below describes the periods of time to be examined for purposes of calculating time against the 180-day period.
• The adjudicator must only examine the period from the date of the alien’s last lawful admission to the United States and must not count violations that occurred before the alien’s last lawful admission.

[suninphx]

I have been thinking about this approach and have come up with a (pretty dodgy) calculation.

Firstly, lets assume that September 2011 figures represent the baseline. That was a month where the Cut Off Dates had stalled and relatively few new EB2-IC applications would have been submitted.

Secondly, let's assume that the increase in applications is solely due to new EB cases. In this case, the % of EB cases is higher than the normal 36%.

The number of EB cases would actually be ((Total Apps - New Apps) * 36%) + New Apps

October 2011 increase over September 2011 = 1,502
November 2011 increase over September 2011 = 4,917

This gives numbers of EB cases of 7,260 for October 2011 and 10,675 for November 2011. The % of EB cases of the total rises to 41% and 51% respectively.

Those figures also include all EB1 cases and EB2-Non IC cases. The number of new EB3 cases will be extremely low as all Countries are retrogressed before July 2007.

Lets say EB1 will use 36,000 visas this year - that is 3,000 per month.
Lets say EB2-Non IC will use 22,000 visas this year - that is 1,833 per month.

Non EB2-IC cases will therefore represent 4,833 cases per month of the total EB receipts, with EB2-IC being the remainder.

That gives EB2-IC receipts of :

October 2011 = 7,260 - 4,833 = 2,427
November 2011 = 10,675 - 4,833 = 5,842

The calculation has too many assumptions for my liking. I've presented it to stimulate discussion or to help people think about the problem.

Thanks for detailed calculations Spec.

As some of people who got current in Oct/Nov are still filing, the above numbers represent the (with some range) lower bound of filings - is that a fair statement?

[mrdeeds]

I have been thinking about this approach and have come up with a (pretty dodgy) calculation.

Firstly, lets assume that September 2011 figures represent the baseline. That was a month where the Cut Off Dates had stalled and relatively few new EB2-IC applications would have been submitted.

Secondly, let's assume that the increase in applications is solely due to new EB cases. In this case, the % of EB cases is higher than the normal 36%.

The number of EB cases would actually be ((Total Apps - New Apps) * 36%) + New Apps

October 2011 increase over September 2011 = 1,502
November 2011 increase over September 2011 = 4,917

This gives numbers of EB cases of 7,260 for October 2011 and 10,675 for November 2011. The % of EB cases of the total rises to 41% and 51% respectively.

Those figures also include all EB1 cases and EB2-Non IC cases. The number of new EB3 cases will be extremely low as all Countries are retrogressed before July 2007.

Lets say EB1 will use 36,000 visas this year - that is 3,000 per month.
Lets say EB2-Non IC will use 22,000 visas this year - that is 1,833 per month.

Non EB2-IC cases will therefore represent 4,833 cases per month of the total EB receipts, with EB2-IC being the remainder.

That gives EB2-IC receipts of :

October 2011 = 7,260 - 4,833 = 2,427
November 2011 = 10,675 - 4,833 = 5,842

The calculation has too many assumptions for my liking. I've presented it to stimulate discussion or to help people think about the problem.

Spec, that's a good way to look at it from the Sep baseline. So the OR here for Nov 2011 is 5842/7624 = 0.77 which is closer to your 0.8.

I agree, this approach has far too many assumptions. But the good finding is that the OR is staying between the 0.8 - 0.9 range. Hopefully confirming / reinforcing the basis for your and Teddy's other assumptions.

[mrdeeds]

As some of people who got current in Oct/Nov are still filing, the above numbers represent the (with some range) lower bound of filings - is that a fair statement?

Suninphx and others, I am just curious. Is it REALLY true that people would not be filing in the very month that they become eligible for? I read comments about lawyers being busy, HR slow, travel etc. But it just boggles my mind that folks that have been waiting for years to become current will take a chance of retrogression and not do everything they can to file. I just can't digest it...

[natvyas]

Suninphx and others, I am just curious. Is it REALLY true that people would not be filing in the very month that they become eligible for? I read comments about lawyers being busy, HR slow, travel etc. But it just boggles my mind that folks that have been waiting for years to become current will take a chance of retrogression and not do everything they can to file. I just can't digest it...

I think the majority have filed in the month they become eligible. There are 2 reasons, one you have stated in your post and second - the further movement in next bulletin was never guaranteed and there was always some talk about possible retrogression. In such a situation people dont want to take a risk.

There might be some for whom the circumstances were unavoidable and even those folks would have fought tooth and nail to get their applications in.

[mrdeeds]

I did perform your analysis for Nov. 2010, I got 6529. Assuming that the only increase in Nov 2011 was EB2IC and other other EB category filings were the same - a big assumption,

We get 7551 - 6529 = 1022. That is indeed a very low number.

other approach:
TSC + NSC Nov. 2010 = 17417
TSC + NSC Nov. 2011 = 20975
Increase = 3558 ...attributed all to EB2IC filings

KD, I think Spec's approach similar to your approach of using the increases is a better approach as that uses the Sep 2011 as the baseline.

[suninphx]

Suninphx and others, I am just curious. Is it REALLY true that people would not be filing in the very month that they become eligible for? I read comments about lawyers being busy, HR slow, travel etc. But it just boggles my mind that folks that have been waiting for years to become current will take a chance of retrogression and not do everything they can to file. I just can't digest it...

Yeah that seems to be case. Check RDs for some Oct Nov PDs in trackitt.

[Spectator]

Suninphx and others, I am just curious. Is it REALLY true that people would not be filing in the very month that they become eligible for? I read comments about lawyers being busy, HR slow, travel etc. But it just boggles my mind that folks that have been waiting for years to become current will take a chance of retrogression and not do everything they can to file. I just can't digest it...They are not necessarily particularly good metrics, but to date, according to Trackitt, around 10% of October VB applicants have a RD after October and about 8% of November VB applicants have a RD after November.

If processing speed of law firms is a problem, the numbers start to ramp up considerably after that.

[goforgreen]

This is true for some folks. I filed 6 weeks after being current. I know atleast 2 colleagues who have had similar delays. Our lawyer said he will file in December but since Jan bulletin also moved forward they slowed down. It was tough time for us, I also considered filing it through another lawyer. But finally they seem to have filed last week.

I hope and pray that things go smooth going forward.


Suninphx and others, I am just curious. Is it REALLY true that people would not be filing in the very month that they become eligible for? I read comments about lawyers being busy, HR slow, travel etc. But it just boggles my mind that folks that have been waiting for years to become current will take a chance of retrogression and not do everything they can to file. I just can't digest it...

[tendlya]

Thanks GC-Utopic and ChampU for quick responses.

[qblogfan]

On trackitt a Nov. Indian guy got 485 approved already!

TSC
Priority Date: 07 Oct 2007
Application Filed: 01 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 02 Nov 2011
primary

His EAD/AP is not approved yet, but he already got 485 approved. He is sure his approval is 485, not EAD/AP.

It looks like some November cases will be approved soon!

Thanks GC-Utopic and ChampU for quick responses.

[mrdeeds]

This is true for some folks. I filed 6 weeks after being current. I know atleast 2 colleagues who have had similar delays. Our lawyer said he will file in December but since Jan bulletin also moved forward they slowed down. It was tough time for us, I also considered filing it through another lawyer. But finally they seem to have filed last week.

I hope and pray that things go smooth going forward.

I hope and pray for you as well that things go smooth going forward. You make a good point goforgreen. Since the next months bulletin is generally available before the 10th of the current month, if the next month bulletin does not show retrogression, lawyers / companies / folks may take it easy. That makes sense.

Thanks everyone for clarifying.

[Desperate8]

I heard Dallas office is not too easy to get walk in, but I think you should try it!

Walk in didnot work - they told us that dallas center was booked till end of jan.

We didnot request for a change of date , my wife says that she feels we can make it :) I am skeptical though.

Question - what would be the last day uptill which I can re-schedule my appointmnet, if we were to ?

[kd2008]

I hate rumors but there you go ...from Greg Siskind

http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2012/01/one-more-month-of-good-news-for-eb-2-indians-and-chinese.html

I guess at this point it is better than nothing. Do we know his track record? Is he reliable?

[LUVSPIDER]

I hate rumors but there you go ...from Greg Siskind

http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2012/01/one-more-month-of-good-news-for-eb-2-indians-and-chinese.html

I guess at this point it is better than nothing. Do we know his track record? Is he reliable?

Pasting it from CM's blog : ( He expects movement in March & April also).

DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall. Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly. Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also feels movement will continue until April 2012.

[mesan123]

Below is Ron G take on Eb2 moment and HR3012.....i also dont know how it is going to be...next 2 bulletions will be eagerly waited by all Eb2 folks...whether it brings happiness or not have to wait and see...

"Personally, and this is just my gut feeling (based on the available information), I expect to see the China/India EB2 cutoff date continue to move forward at a rate of about one year per month. It should become current or near-current no later than May. At that point, we will either have enough applications in the pipeline to use up the annual quota, or we won't. If we do, then the cutoff date will start to retrogress, ultimately settling in at around mid-2009. If we don't have enough applications in the pipeline, then we will see a fall down of numbers into Worldwide EB3 - where there are more than enough pending applications to use up the quota. "

"Thanks. I don't know what the Senate intends to do. The inmates are running the asylum. The Senate is the only institution in American where a 41% minority has full veto power over the majority. Also, as a result of really silly 18th century rules, a single demented Senator can block action by the entire Senate. As a practical matter, the USCIS failure to act on pending AOS applications is having the same result, for the most part, that HR3012 would have. China/India EB2 cutoff dates are advancing rapidly and may well become "current" in the next few months. It won't last, but it will give everyone with approved EB2 eligible PERMs an opportunity to file. "

[Osaka001]

Pasting it from CM's blog : ( He expects movement in March & April also).

DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall. Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly. Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also feels movement will continue until April 2012.

If DoS advance the dates in March and April with 1 year advancement in each month, as they did it last 2 months, then they really need to slowdown and wait for people to clear PERM :-). No offence.

[GC-Utopic]

I hate rumors but there you go ...from Greg Siskind

http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2012/01/one-more-month-of-good-news-for-eb-2-indians-and-chinese.html

I guess at this point it is better than nothing. Do we know his track record? Is he reliable?

It's a very reputable law firm , on par with the best ones ala murthy and co

[GhostWriter]

Need help. Thanks in advance.
I have a question. I have sent affidavits from parents in place of birth certificate to the lawyer. He is preparing AOS forms. I have also applied for birth certificate a month ago and i might get it in a week or so. Do any of the AOS/EAD forms have a field to mention the proof for birth certificate or is it just a supporting document. My concern is that if i get my birth certificate, can i send it to my lawyer to include it with my application or will he have to re-do the form preparation.

[GC-Utopic]

Need help. Thanks in advance.
I have a question. I have sent affidavits from parents in place of birth certificate to the lawyer. He is preparing AOS forms. I have also applied for birth certificate a month ago and i might get it in a week or so. Do any of the AOS/EAD forms have a field to mention the proof for birth certificate or is it just a supporting document. My concern is that if i get my birth certificate, can i send it to my lawyer to include it with my application or will he have to re-do the form preparation.

AFAIK,

No B.C -- get NABC plus affidavits, only affidavits won't do it,

B.C registration after one year of birth--- need affidavits plus secondary evidence,,,

B.C registration date less than one year of birth--- ideal,, issue date doesn't matter,,,

[GhostWriter]

Thanks. My question is different though, do the forms include a field where you have to specify what is being submitted as a proof of birth certificate or is it just a supporting document. The reason i am asking this is to understand if the lawyer will have to fill the forms again if i change my proof of birth from affidavits to birth certificate.


AFAIK,

No B.C -- get NABC plus affidavits, only affidavits won't do it,

B.C registration after one year of birth--- need affidavits plus secondary evidence,,,

B.C registration date less than one year of birth--- ideal,, issue date doesn't matter,,,

[vizcard]

Thanks. My question is different though, do the forms include a field where you have to specify what is being submitted as a proof of birth certificate or is it just a supporting document. The reason i am asking this is to understand if the lawyer will have to fill the forms again if i change my proof of birth from affidavits to birth certificate.

You won't have to fill out forms again. You may get a RFE asking for that info in which case you can submit what is asked for.

[usernameisnotvalid]

"B.C registration after one year of birth--- need affidavits plus secondary evidence"

According to my lawyer, this is true only if BC does not have proper names of you and your parents like initials, or no-name at all or different name than what is in the passport(s).


AFAIK,

No B.C -- get NABC plus affidavits, only affidavits won't do it,

B.C registration after one year of birth--- need affidavits plus secondary evidence,,,

B.C registration date less than one year of birth--- ideal,, issue date doesn't matter,,,

[GhostWriter]

How about before submitting the forms. So i have sent the affidavits to the lawyer and he has prepared the AOS forms. Before he submits the AOS forms to USCIS if i send him the birth certificate, will he have to change the forms and get them signed from me again or is it just a supporting document that can be included with the final submission.



You won't have to fill out forms again. You may get a RFE asking for that info in which case you can submit what is asked for.

[03May07]

You won't have to fill out forms again. You may get a RFE asking for that info in which case you can submit what is asked for.


... if BC does not have proper names of you and your parents like initials...

I'm planning to re-submit the things they asked for..BC not having my name + affidavits + Marriage certificate. (I've submitted these the first time I filed 485). Would I piss off the reviewing officer as he may (or maynot) have looked at my documentation. Do I only have 1 chance to submit RFE docs...or can they ask for more documents after I respond to 1st RFE?

[EB2-03252009]

Hi,

At last I have made up my mind and decide to apply my i-485. I am single and my priority date is March-2009. I am planning to get married by end of this year, hope I wont get my GC by tht time. Let me know your views. Thanks!

[gkjppp]

Hi,

At last I have made up my mind and decide to apply my i-485. I am single and my priority date is March-2009. I am planning to get married by end of this year, hope I wont get my GC by tht time. Let me know your views. Thanks!

Thats great, Hopefully you will not get greened before 2013 March.

[self.coach]

I posted this in the i485 related thread but seems like there is less traffic there. I am reposting here, so Q please feel free to delete after couple of days if this is resolved here. Repost:

In the i-485 application, should the Form G-325A's Job title and Job history match what was submitted in the i-140 application and/or Perm application?

In my case, my approved Perm's job title was Computer Software Engineers, approved i-140's job title was Product Manager. Please advise.

[suninphx]

Friends,

when can we invoke AC21 ? Is that 6 moinths after I485 receipt date or 6 months after getting EAD? I got fulltime offer from client.

[vizcard]

Friends,

when can we invoke AC21 ? Is that 6 moinths after I485 receipt date or 6 months after getting EAD? I got fulltime offer from client.

180 days after 485.

[vizcard]

How about before submitting the forms. So i have sent the affidavits to the lawyer and he has prepared the AOS forms. Before he submits the AOS forms to USCIS if i send him the birth certificate, will he have to change the forms and get them signed from me again or is it just a supporting document that can be included with the final submission.

It is supporting documentation.


I'm planning to re-submit the things they asked for..BC not having my name + affidavits + Marriage certificate. (I've submitted these the first time I filed 485). Would I piss off the reviewing officer as he may (or maynot) have looked at my documentation. Do I only have 1 chance to submit RFE docs...or can they ask for more documents after I respond to 1st RFE?

I wouldn't send anything unless explicitly asked for. That way there is no confusion. If they wanted something, they would have asked for it.

[gc2008]

Hello Guys,
Sorry for posting this in wrong thread. Please move to appropriate thread if necessary. I got finger print appointment at Elizabeth, NJ. When I checked the address (USCIS Elizabeth, 285 North Broad St, Elizabeth City, NJ 07208) in google maps, I could not find the address. I am sure some of you guys experienced the same problem. Can you let me know what is the address I need to put into google maps/gps? Also is there any parking available near the place.

Thanks a lot!!!

[Reader]

This works in both GPS and google maps. 285 North Broad St, Elizabeth City, NJ 07208


Hello Guys,
Sorry for posting this in wrong thread. Please move to appropriate thread if necessary. I got finger print appointment at Elizabeth, NJ. When I checked the address (USCIS Elizabeth, 285 North Broad St, Elizabeth City, NJ 07208) in google maps, I could not find the address. I am sure some of you guys experienced the same problem. Can you let me know what is the address I need to put into google maps/gps? Also is there any parking available near the place.

Thanks a lot!!!

[Reader]

.............

[vizcard]

Hello Guys,
Sorry for posting this in wrong thread. Please move to appropriate thread if necessary. I got finger print appointment at Elizabeth, NJ. When I checked the address (USCIS Elizabeth, 285 North Broad St, Elizabeth City, NJ 07208) in google maps, I could not find the address. I am sure some of you guys experienced the same problem. Can you let me know what is the address I need to put into google maps/gps? Also is there any parking available near the place.

Thanks a lot!!!

Its in Elizabeth, NJ.. .don't need to put the Elizabeth "City". I assume you guys are around the NYC/JC area ?


This works in both GPS and google maps. 285 North Broad St, Elizabeth City, NJ 07208

[Kanmani]

Sun
180 days from the RD of I-485.


Friends,

when can we invoke AC21 ? Is that 6 moinths after I485 receipt date or 6 months after getting EAD? I got fulltime offer from client.

[suninphx]

Thanks Kanmani , Vizcard

[username]

Today my company (desi consulting co.) send me email stating that "company came to know that my priority dates are current and company will file GC (I485) for me. Before company file my GC (I485) I have to sign a contract with them (they have email me 19 page legal (lawyer) contract). Company GC contract state that if I leave company in 18 months after filing my I485 than I have to pay $25,000/- (cost for filing my I485) to company and other bla..bla..bla.."

I was luck to know all this kind of things from senior(old) H1B friends. Taking there advice I had filed my I485 by my own lawyer without letting company know.

Reason I am posting this here is my other friend working for desi consulting also received similar letter from his company.

[gc2008]

Just Curious to know. How did you file without the knowledge of the employer. Did you submit Employment verification letter?

[gkjppp]

Just Curious to know. How did you file without the knowledge of the employer. Did you submit Employment verification letter?

You are right, you need EVL from your employer to file 485.

[username]

Just Curious to know. How did you file without the knowledge of the employer. Did you submit Employment verification letter?

As lot of people were predicting future dates, I was sure that I would be filing my 485 in a month or two. So I had requested my EVL from my company two month prior (in month of October). At that time company was not having any clue why I am requesting and issue me one EVL. If my PD would not have got current than I would have thrown EVL letter in dustbin. Luckily my PD become current and I had used EVL letter.

[veni001]

"This Fact Sheet (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_factsheet_dec_11.pdf) presents statistics regarding Permanent Labor Certification program applications submitted during the first quarter of FY 2012."

[manubhai]

White House response to petition for GC for advanced degree holders

Please see in appropriate thread here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?659-White-House-response-to-petition-for-GC-for-advanced-degree-holders

[Osaka001]

As lot of people were predicting future dates, I was sure that I would be filing my 485 in a month or two. So I had requested my EVL from my company two month prior (in month of October). At that time company was not having any clue why I am requesting and issue me one EVL. If my PD would not have got current than I would have thrown EVL letter in dustbin. Luckily my PD become current and I had used EVL letter.

Why would you take risk filing on your own, If any RFE raises about company, you would be in trouble.

One alternate is , write the bond and file I-485, Once you get GC or eligible for AC21, manage your client to terminate your contract. Then you can sit at home ask your employer to pay. They can't pay you for free. problem solved.

[krishnav]

Unless his employer owes him some money.
Well, even before we think of alternatives, is there even such a contract based rule in the US. I think they are just trying to scare you.
I heard of non disclosure agreements but I have never heard of any company making its employee write a contract to stay with them for x amount of time.
I could be wrong...perhaps one of the gurus would know better about such contracts.


Why would you take risk filing on your own, If any RFE raises about company, you would be in trouble.

One alternate is , write the bond and file I-485, Once you get GC or eligible for AC21, manage your client to terminate your contract. Then you can sit at home ask your employer to pay. They can't pay you for free. problem solved.

[Kanmani]

GC in US itself is conditonal unlike other countries granting PR based on educational qualifications.

Since the GC is offered purely based upon the job position of the particular company with an intention to work in the position on a permanent basis I dont think this could be challenged.

Just my point of view leaving the rest to Gurus.

[Osaka001]

Unless his employer owes him some money.
Well, even before we think of alternatives, is there even such a contract based rule in the US. I think they are just trying to scare you.
I heard of non disclosure agreements but I have never heard of any company making its employee write a contract to stay with them for x amount of time.
I could be wrong...perhaps one of the gurus would know better about such contracts.

Yes , they are valid, the rules vary from state to state, In california the rules are not tight. But in NY same bond is valid.

Most of the time , they quote this amount as filing and some misc expenses, they will go to arbitrage courts.

I have my colleage in CA, but his employer in NY, he filed bond for 18 months, and he left after 6 months on H1, then their employer filed case in the arb court, the judge ordered to pay prorated amount, he had to pay around 9K.

In my personal case, I wrote a bond with my employer for 18 months with 15K, on H1 in CA, I got offer from my client in 14th month of the contract, then I moved becoz of economy.

My employer sent lawyer notice for the amount 15K, not even prorated amount, but luckily, there was a DOL audit going on for some people on bench, then I sent a email to him, stating his company is not paying some of the employees on bench and DOL audit etc for the reason to leave the company. After that , I did not see any mails from him, this is 2008.

[vizcard]

I work in NY and I had to sign a $10K contract for 2 years after GC. Ofcourse I can always ask my new company to give me a "signing bonus" if required

[username]

Why would you take risk filing on your own, If any RFE raises about company, you would be in trouble.

One alternate is , write the bond and file I-485, Once you get GC or eligible for AC21, manage your client to terminate your contract. Then you can sit at home ask your employer to pay. They can't pay you for free. problem solved. Yes you have suggested good valid alternative.

Why would you take risk filing on your own, If any RFE raises about company, you would be in trouble.
I don't think within 180 days of filing I485 there will be any rfe requesting any company documents as I have already provided valid EVL and paystubs at the time of filing. On 181 day of filing I485 I am going to invoke AC21 and will be free from any obligation.

I don't know in which US-State such bond/contract are valid and not valid as I am not an expert of US law. But too be safe side I always aviod to sign on dotted line.

[Reader]

Friends, Quick question about a possible scenario...

My PD is EB2I - 12-Dec-2007 and 6 years on H1 is expiring on May 15th 2012. Even though I would get EAD prior to my H1 expiration, there is a possibility that my approved 140 could be revoked by USCIS due to financial misrepresentation by the company. Due to this, I am applying for my H1 extension on the basis of approved 140. Most likely my 485 would be adjudicated only after 4 or 5 months from now based on my priority date. If my H1 is approved first based on 140 and later the 140 is revoked at 485 adjudication stage, will I be able to continue working on the H1 until the new expiry date or does it invalidate the H1 extension received. Any thoughts please?

[krishnav]

Thanks Osaka001....good to know.


Yes , they are valid, the rules vary from state to state, In california the rules are not tight. But in NY same bond is valid.

Most of the time , they quote this amount as filing and some misc expenses, they will go to arbitrage courts.

I have my colleage in CA, but his employer in NY, he filed bond for 18 months, and he left after 6 months on H1, then their employer filed case in the arb court, the judge ordered to pay prorated amount, he had to pay around 9K.

In my personal case, I wrote a bond with my employer for 18 months with 15K, on H1 in CA, I got offer from my client in 14th month of the contract, then I moved becoz of economy.

My employer sent lawyer notice for the amount 15K, not even prorated amount, but luckily, there was a DOL audit going on for some people on bench, then I sent a email to him, stating his company is not paying some of the employees on bench and DOL audit etc for the reason to leave the company. After that , I did not see any mails from him, this is 2008.

[veni001]

Friends, Quick question about a possible scenario...

My PD is EB2I - 12-Dec-2007 and 6 years on H1 is expiring on May 15th 2012. Even though I would get EAD prior to my H1 expiration, there is a possibility that my approved 140 could be revoked by USCIS due to financial misrepresentation by the company. Due to this, I am applying for my H1 extension on the basis of approved 140. Most likely my 485 would be adjudicated only after 4 or 5 months from now based on my priority date. If my H1 is approved first based on 140 and later the 140 is revoked at 485 adjudication stage, will I be able to continue working on the H1 until the new expiry date or does it invalidate the H1 extension received. Any thoughts please?

Reader,
If H1B is approved before 140 revoked, your H1 will remain valid for the duration approved.

[Osaka001]

Yes you have suggested good valid alternative.

Why would you take risk filing on your own, If any RFE raises about company, you would be in trouble.
I don't think within 180 days of filing I485 there will be any rfe requesting any company documents as I have already provided valid EVL and paystubs at the time of filing. On 181 day of filing I485 I am going to invoke AC21 and will be free from any obligation.

I don't know in which US-State such bond/contract are valid and not valid as I am not an expert of US law. But too be safe side I always aviod to sign on dotted line.

I am not expert on I-485 process, I myself waiting to file AoS, I know there are less chances for RFE at 485 stage, but my point view is, I could see many cost effective ways to break the bond than addressing 485 related issues.

my 2 cents.

[qblogfan]

That's why I call this system a slavery system.

From the surface, it does not look like a slavery system, but deep inside it is a slavery system. GC in US is not based on the merits of an applicant, but based on whether this person can be a dog of his/her employer for as long as ten years! During this process the government grants the employers all the previlege to hide approved documents and give zero right to the applicant before 485 stage. You can not even figure out whether they really filed anything for you and you have to stay in darkness for many years. With the minimum pay, many applicants have to stay on the same position for so many years. It's indeed a slavery system, especially for EB3 folks. Sorry to say that, but it is the truth of this system: maximize the power of employers and attorneys, minimize the rights of applicants, lock the applicants as long as they can.


GC in US itself is conditonal unlike other countries granting PR based on educational qualifications.

Since the GC is offered purely based upon the job position of the particular company with an intention to work in the position on a permanent basis I dont think this could be challenged.

Just my point of view leaving the rest to Gurus.

[girishgkulkarni]

That's why I call this system a slavery system.

From the surface, it does not look like a slavery system, but deep inside it is a slavery system. GC in US is not based on the merits of an applicant, but based on whether this person can be a dog of his/her employer for as long as ten years! During this process the government grants the employers all the previlege to hide approved documents and give zero right to the applicant before 485 stage. You can not even figure out whether they really filed anything for you and you have to stay in darkness for many years. With the minimum pay, many applicants have to stay on the same position for so many years. It's indeed a slavery system, especially for EB3 folks. Sorry to say that, but it is the truth of this system: maximize the power of employers and attorneys, minimize the rights of applicants, lock the applicants as long as they can.

It is a version of Indentured Servitude...

Do ur time to get your plastic...

EB1 - 6 to 8 Months
EB2 - 8 Months to 4 Years
EB3 - 4 to 70 Years

My expression is not an Endorsement of the current systm.

[vizcard]

It is a version of Indentured Servitude...

Do ur time to get your plastic...

EB1 - 6 to 8 Months
EB2 - 8 Months to 4 Years
EB3 - 4 to 70 Years

My expression is not an Endorsement of the current systm.

Assuming the company files immediately and there are no contracts at the end. Im lucky that i love my job and get paid on par with others so I'm not in a hurry to change jobs...but its not pretty for most.

[Kanmani]

Submitting secondary evidence and affidavits .

(i) General . The non-existence or other unavailability of required evidence creates a presumption of ineligibility. If a required document, such as a birth or marriage certificate, does not exist or cannot be obtained, an applicant or petitioner must demonstrate this and submit secondary evidence, such as church or school records, pertinent to the facts at issue. If secondary evidence also does not exist or cannot be obtained, the applicant or petitioner must demonstrate the unavailability of both the required docum ent and relevant secondary evidence, and submit two or more affidavits, sworn to or affirmed by persons who are not parties to the petition who have direct personal knowledge of the event and circumstances. Secondary evidence must overcome the unavailability of primary evidence, and affidavits must overcome the unavailability of both primary and secondary evidence.

(4) Submitting copies of documents .
Application and petition forms, and documents issued to support an application or petition (such as labor certifications, Form DS 2019, medical examinations, affidavits, formal consultations, letters of current employment and other statements) must be submitted in the original unless previously filed with USCIS. Official documents issued by the Department or by the former Immigration and Naturalization Service need not be submitted in the original unless required by USCIS. Unless otherwise required by the applicable regulation or form's instructions, a legible photocopy of any other supporting document may be submitted. Applicants and petitioners need only submit those original documents necessary to support the benefit sought. However, original documents submitted when not required will remain a part of the record. (Revised effective 6/18/07; 72 FR 19100 )

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-11185/0-0-0-11549/0-0-0-11565.html

[kd2008]

I noticed on trackitt that PERM approvals have almost dried up and now are down to a trickle. Could the gurus please explain the impact of this? There may be none immediately, but I think it may, I stress may, result in more spillover in 2012 or early 2013.

[veni001]

I noticed on trackitt that PERM approvals have almost dried up and now are down to a trickle. Could the gurus please explain the impact of this? There may be none immediately, but I think it may, I stress may, result in more spillover in 2012 or early 2013.


"This Fact Sheet (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_factsheet_dec_11.pdf) presents statistics regarding Permanent Labor Certification program applications submitted during the first quarter of FY 2012."

kd2008,

We analysed FY-2011 PERM & 140 data back in November, you can check posts # 2569 & 2574 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012/page103).

DOL December Factsheet (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_factsheet_dec_11.pdf)shows further down trend in PERM certifications in Q1-FY2012. PERM certifications are down by 50% when compared to Q1-FY2011, in addition to increase in denial rate.

If and when half-year data is available, we will have better picture for FY2012!.

Bottom line, as long and EB1&EB2ROW demand is less than the number of VISAs available in given quarter, CO will be happy to continue QSP!

[kd2008]

kd2008,

We analysed FY-2011 PERM & 140 data back in November, you can check posts # 2569 & 2574 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012/page103).

DOL December Factsheet (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_factsheet_dec_11.pdf)shows further down trend in PERM certifications in Q1-FY2012. PERM certifications are down by 50% when compared to Q1-FY2011, in addition to increase in denial rate.

If and when half-year data is available, we will have better picture for FY2012!.

Bottom line, as long and EB1&EB2ROW demand is less than the number of VISAs available in given quarter, CO will be happy to continue QSP!

Thank you for the quick analysis, veni!

[suninphx]

Submitting secondary evidence and affidavits .

(i) General . The non-existence or other unavailability of required evidence creates a presumption of ineligibility. If a required document, such as a birth or marriage certificate, does not exist or cannot be obtained, an applicant or petitioner must demonstrate this and submit secondary evidence, such as church or school records, pertinent to the facts at issue. If secondary evidence also does not exist or cannot be obtained, the applicant or petitioner must demonstrate the unavailability of both the required docum ent and relevant secondary evidence, and submit two or more affidavits, sworn to or affirmed by persons who are not parties to the petition who have direct personal knowledge of the event and circumstances. Secondary evidence must overcome the unavailability of primary evidence, and affidavits must overcome the unavailability of both primary and secondary evidence.

(4) Submitting copies of documents .
Application and petition forms, and documents issued to support an application or petition (such as labor certifications, Form DS 2019, medical examinations, affidavits, formal consultations, letters of current employment and other statements) must be submitted in the original unless previously filed with USCIS. Official documents issued by the Department or by the former Immigration and Naturalization Service need not be submitted in the original unless required by USCIS. Unless otherwise required by the applicable regulation or form's instructions, a legible photocopy of any other supporting document may be submitted. Applicants and petitioners need only submit those original documents necessary to support the benefit sought. However, original documents submitted when not required will remain a part of the record. (Revised effective 6/18/07; 72 FR 19100 )

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-11185/0-0-0-11549/0-0-0-11565.html

From memory some one posted clarifications link from Rajiv Khanna that 'copies' of affidavits will suffice. My friends have got affidavit copies based on attorneys advice. I am not contesting above link but just stating what I have seen/ heard.

[vizcard]

From memory some one posted clarifications link from Rajiv Khanna that 'copies' of affidavits will suffice. My friends have got affidavit copies only based attorneys advice. I am not contesting above link but just stating what I have seen/ heard.

fragomen told me copies of all documents are fine. I don't know about the EVL since they are working with my Firm directly to get it.

[natvyas]

Is QSP really happening in this quarter? Unless I'm mistaken we have seen only a few approvals beyond July 07 this month

[Spectator]

Is QSP really happening in this quarter? Unless I'm mistaken we have seen only a few approvals beyond July 07 this monthnatvyas,

There may be something of a lull at the moment.

Most easily approvable cases from the old backlog have probably been approved by now and it is still a little early for the majority of even October new filings to be ready to adjudicate, if you consider even 4 months processing time. Those seen to date had pretty short times by normal standards. About 19% of EB2-I October filers have been approved to date.

We don't know the level of visas that are going to be available for QSP this quarter, but it can't continue at the rate seen in Q1 (or at least it is very unlikely). Having essentially cleared the backlog, CO may wait a little longer to determine that, since it will affect how much he has to retrogress dates.

EB2-ROW appears to be using less visas, but EB1 continues to consume a worryingly large number.

[vgraj1]

Based on analysis of I-485 inventory data as on 30-Sep-11 released by USCIS, I think there is ample scope of PD movement for EB2 I.

1. The total I-485 inventory of EB1 plus EB2 cases was 39K as at Sep. end. Of this 15K was for 2011 filings (which will be from countries other than India and China).
2. USCIS needs to build an I-485 inventory of 90K by April 2012 end, assuming a lead-time of 4 months for USCIS to process the I-485 applications and a rejection rate of 10% so that the 80K visas for EB1 & EB2 are utilized by Sep. 2012 end. In addition, they also need to a keep an inventory of 30K at Sep.2012 end for processing in the first quarter of FY 2013. In other words, they need to evaluate and process about 8K EB1+EB2 I-485 cases per month on an on-going basis to ensure that the annual quota is not wasted.
3. For the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB1 inventory was 151, 295, 3495 from non-India/China applicants whose PD was current in those years.
4. For the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB2 inventory was 703, 1167, 3561 from non-India/China applicants whose PD was current in those years.
5. Because the EB1 and EB2 demand/inventory is very low for the years 2008, 2009, 2010 from non-India/China countries whose PD was current (may be due to recession), it leaves a huge amount of spillover for India and China. A number of employers were not even ready to employ H1B candidates in the last few years let alone process GCs for them. So, demand from India/China applicants is also not expected to be huge.
6. If the I-485 filings from India & China do not increase substantially to eat up the entire spillover (which seems so from some one's count of TSC filings, about 6K I485s (all EBs put together) in Dec./Jan.), it will be necessary for DOS to advance the priority date.
7. The inventory of I-485 in 2009 is still low. It improved in 2010, but the bigger increase came in 2011 with 15K filings from countries other than India and China.
8. Therefore, my expectation is for EB2 I to move to 1-Jan-2011 in March and to 1-Jul-2011 in April visa bulletins in order to absorb the spillover from EB2 ROW low demand and EB1 excess absorption. If the number of filings in Feb and March do not increase substantially to build up sufficient inventory for FY 2012, it may become current in May visa bulletin. I do not see any need for retrogression until sufficient inventory is built up by USCIS/DOS.

Is there any flaw in my analysis?

[qesehmk]

vgraj1 I think that the 80K you mention above for EB1 and EB2 ... is ok. But need to understand that EB1 consumes almost all of their quota. And then there is EB2ROW which will ocnsume about 3/4th of their quota. Thus EB2IC are dependent on mostly EB5 and EB2ROW for spillover - which over last few years has been around 20-25K per year (including EB2IC allocation of 6K).

As per movement - since the movement is discretionary, anything could happen. However if we hold CO true to his word, then we should actually expect retro as soon as next bulletin and as late as the one after. The reason being, the people who filed in Oct 2011 onwards should start hitting DOS pipeline anytime now.


Based on analysis of I-485 inventory data as on 30-Sep-11 released by USCIS, I think there is ample scope of PD movement for EB2 I.

1. The total I-485 inventory of EB1 plus EB2 cases was 39K as at Sep. end. Of this 15K was for 2011 filings (which will be from countries other than India and China).
2. USCIS needs to build an I-485 inventory of 90K by April 2012 end, assuming a lead-time of 4 months for USCIS to process the I-485 applications and a rejection rate of 10% so that the 80K visas for EB1 & EB2 are utilized by Sep. 2012 end. In addition, they also need to a keep an inventory of 30K at Sep.2012 end for processing in the first quarter of FY 2013. In other words, they need to evaluate and process about 8K EB1+EB2 I-485 cases per month on an on-going basis to ensure that the annual quota is not wasted.
3. For the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB1 inventory was 151, 295, 3495 from non-India/China applicants whose PD was current in those years.
4. For the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB2 inventory was 703, 1167, 3561 from non-India/China applicants whose PD was current in those years.
5. Because the EB1 and EB2 demand/inventory is very low for the years 2008, 2009, 2010 from non-India/China countries whose PD was current (may be due to recession), it leaves a huge amount of spillover for India and China. A number of employers were not even ready to employ H1B candidates in the last few years let alone process GCs for them. So, demand from India/China applicants is also not expected to be huge.
6. If the I-485 filings from India & China do not increase substantially to eat up the entire spillover (which seems so from some one's count of TSC filings, about 6K I485s (all EBs put together) in Dec./Jan.), it will be necessary for DOS to advance the priority date.
7. The inventory of I-485 in 2009 is still low. It improved in 2010, but the bigger increase came in 2011 with 15K filings from countries other than India and China.
8. Therefore, my expectation is for EB2 I to move to 1-Jan-2011 in March and to 1-Jul-2011 in April visa bulletins in order to absorb the spillover from EB2 ROW low demand and EB1 excess absorption. If the number of filings in Feb and March do not increase substantially to build up sufficient inventory for FY 2012, it may become current in May visa bulletin. I do not see any need for retrogression until sufficient inventory is built up by USCIS/DOS.

Is there any flaw in my analysis?

[Spectator]

vgraj1,

I think you need to be aware of the limitations of using the USCIS Inventory data for Categories and Countries that are Current.

The USCIS Inventory only shows I-485 applications submitted where the underlying I-140 has also been approved.

For the old EB2-IC backlog, it was quite accurate, because it was almost static and the cases were so old that virtually all underlying I-140 had been approved.

That is not the case for EB1 and EB2-ROW.

Cases where the I-140 is approved and any I-485 is also approved between Inventories will never appear in any Inventory.

Around 75% of EB1C (which has made up 50% of total EB1 approvals) and EB2-ROW cases are filed concurrently. EB1A has quite low concurrent filing and EB1B is somewhere in between.

The I-485 cases associated with I-140 cases that are still pending will not appear in the Inventory.

Therefore, for Categories / Countries are Current, the USCIS Inventory will under report the true numbers IMO.

[vgraj1]

Hi Spectator,

Thanks for your response. My thought was that for the countries whose PD is current, the applicants would have already filed their I-485s in 2008, 2009, 2010 before Sep.2011, and so their I-485 inventory is reliable, and low because of the recession. Anyway, I understand that it is all a guessing name at this point, and it depends on the rate of filings in Feb/March 2012 from EB 2 I/C who have become current, and how much of spillover has been utilized.

[president99]

Gurus: IF QSP is applied, do u expect the Nov filers to be cleared in the coming month or so...would the CO then retrogress to Nov1st? If QSP is not applied, is it correct to say that the dates have to be retrogressed to a much earlier date by April?

[chikitsak]

For Oct EB2 I filers. very few approvals after the first week of January. Now we are seeing RFEs for some of the filers but not many approvals. I think this implies, they are pre-adjudicating the remaining applications pending availability of Visa numbers. The Jan first week approvals were likely coming from the release of the second quarter quota (now exhausted). If this is true we may not see many more approvals till the end of March.
As they accrue more pre-adjudicated applications, the chances of retrogression increases. Hopefully another month of forward movement, but then retrogression seems imminent.

[veni001]

Gurus: IF QSP is applied, do u expect the Nov filers to be cleared in the coming month or so...would the CO then retrogress to Nov1st? If QSP is not applied, is it correct to say that the dates have to be retrogressed to a much earlier date by April?

president99,

As Spec pointed above, the rate of approvals for EB2IC in Q2 can't be expected similar to Q1.

QSP mostly depends on how well EB1&EB2ROW-M-P going to do in each quarter.



For Oct EB2 I filers. very few approvals after the first week of January. Now we are seeing RFEs for some of the filers but not many approvals. I think this implies, they are pre-adjudicating the remaining applications pending availability of Visa numbers. The Jan first week approvals were likely coming from the release of the second quarter quota (now exhausted). If this is true we may not see many more approvals till the end of March.
As they accrue more pre-adjudicated applications, the chances of retrogression increases. Hopefully another month of forward movement, but then retrogression seems imminent.

chikitsak,

That could very well be a possibility. In this case we should see significantly higher numbers in next Demand Data for EB2IC, published by DOS.

[Spectator]

Hi Spectator,

Thanks for your response. My thought was that for the countries whose PD is current, the applicants would have already filed their I-485s in 2008, 2009, 2010 before Sep.2011, and so their I-485 inventory is reliable, and low because of the recession. Anyway, I understand that it is all a guessing name at this point, and it depends on the rate of filings in Feb/March 2012 from EB 2 I/C who have become current, and how much of spillover has been utilized.vgraj1,

Yes, for Categories / Countries that are always Current, they would have already filed their I-485s and certainly for the earlier years, the I-140 has probably been approved as well. But, the I-485 is almost certainly approved as well by now and has been reflected in the approvals reported for FY2008, FY2009 etc by DOS. None of those cases would reflect in the latest USCIS Inventory. In fact, many of the older cases still in the Inventory may have problems which have delayed them being approved by now, or there may be other, unknown, reasons.

But for more recent cases (maybe 6-9 months), filed concurrently, many will not have had the underlying I-140 approved and any associated I-485s will not show in the USCIS Inventory.

It is a difficult nut to crack and there have been many discussions on the forum about how to better determine EB1 numbers in particular. If data from many different sources all points the same way, then we have greater confidence in it.

For instance, a rise in EB1 numbers for FY2012 was predicted based on various USCIS reports and Veni's work on deriving numbers from the USCIS Dashboard data.

In general, approvals on Trackitt YoY give a very good idea of the trend of what is happening.

[veni001]

vgraj1,

.........................................
.........................................

It is a difficult nut to crack and there have been many discussions on the forum about how to better determine EB1 numbers in particular. If data from many different sources all points the same way, then we have greater confidence in it.

For instance, a rise in EB1 numbers for FY2012 was predicted based on various USCIS reports and Veni's work on deriving numbers from the USCIS Dashboard data.

In general, approvals on Trackitt YoY give a very good idea of the trend of what is happening.


Hi Spectator,

Thanks for your response. My thought was that for the countries whose PD is current, the applicants would have already filed their I-485s in 2008, 2009, 2010 before Sep.2011, and so their I-485 inventory is reliable, and low because of the recession. Anyway, I understand that it is all a guessing name at this point, and it depends on the rate of filings in Feb/March 2012 from EB 2 I/C who have become current, and how much of spillover has been utilized.

vgraj1,

I agree with Spec, it is a difficult nut to crack.

You can check our monthly PERM-to-140 tracker (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations)to get a feel for EB1-140 receipts, which shows significant increase in demand.

[Nishant_imt]

People ....

Quick question.... My company is filing for second labor. Earlier PERM and I-140 were cleared last year but they were for a specific job location and i have already moved out of that location. Now, I was reading on some websites that a lot of people get audit if the same company is filing for PERM again. In my case, the distinction is fairly clear that it was filed earlier for city A and now it is filed for all states in the US. But i don't know if the USCIS folks will be able to figure that out. Is it wise to withdraw the previous PERM and I-140 before filing a new one? I am concerned because if it is denied, i will be in dire straits. In worst case scenario, I can move back to City A for the job and file I-485 from there based on first PERM and I-140, But if we withdraw, that option is gone too. I hope i am making sense here. Thanks for any advice in advance.

[gcoracle]

People ....

Quick question.... My company is filing for second labor. Earlier PERM and I-140 were cleared last year but they were for a specific job location and i have already moved out of that location. Now, I was reading on some websites that a lot of people get audit if the same company is filing for PERM again. In my case, the distinction is fairly clear that it was filed earlier for city A and now it is filed for all states in the US. But i don't know if the USCIS folks will be able to figure that out. Is it wise to withdraw the previous PERM and I-140 before filing a new one? I am concerned because if it is denied, i will be in dire straits. In worst case scenario, I can move back to City A for the job and file I-485 from there based on first PERM and I-140, But if we withdraw, that option is gone too. I hope i am making sense here. Thanks for any advice in advance.

Here is what I did. As soon as my dates got current. My attorney suggested that I move to the state where my PERM was filed. I work for a fortune 10 company and have offices in every state, so I moved and my H1B/LCA was also amended. Later I485 was filed. Now the crazy part is, my wife still works in a different state and I am commuting every weekend (7hrs drive one-way). Its tough with a 3 year old in the house and I miss my family everyday but we are hoping that as soon as my wife gets her EAD, she will hopefully find a job in the state where I am working. My difficulties are one more example of the sacrifices some of us have to go through for this GC.

[imdeng]

Folks - Sorry for the off-topic post. I will remove the post and the replies to the appropriate thread in a day. I am a Feb current (PD: Aug-2009) and I have two urgent questions:

1. I am in a pickle about Birth Certificate thing. I have Affidavits from parents and I also have school records however, getting either a delayed registration BC or a Non-Availability Certificate is proving to be a hassle. I am from a corruption-rich state and my parents are quite elderly and it is proving very difficult for them to get anything from the Municipality. Is it possible at all to file for 485 without a document from Municipality?

2. I need EAD urgently since my dependent needs to shift jobs in Mar-April timeframe. Would it be advisable to file 485 asap even if the documentation is not fully complete (e.g. the BC issue above) and let it go to RFE? Would any resulting RFE affect the timeline for us to get an EAD??

Thanks for your replies. There is just a week for me to file and I am freaking out a little.

[vgraj1]

Hi veni001,

Thanks for the link. Have you made any similar statistics for EB2 and projections for FY 2012. Are we able to isolate the reason from the statistics why CO is advancing EB2 I&C rapidly in the last few bulletins? From this, are we able to extrapolate what would be the expected PD changes in the next 2 bulletins?

[suninphx]

Advancement of EB2-IC dates is not a real mystery. The pace of advancement did surprise everyone, but that the dates would advance once they pass July 2007 was well known.

- EB2-IC is a major consumer of the spillover visas from the other categories. Since the US economy still hasn't picked up after the real estate bubble burst of 2008, the demand continues to be low, and EB2-IC continues to consume about 25K SOFAD on an average.
- After the July 2007 date was passed, there was a demand cliff (0 demand). Coupled with the fact that the USCIS is exceptionally slow in processing 485 cases, dates had to be advanced rapidly to not waste any visas. A lot of 485 cases also end up in RFEs nowadays, which are not counted in demand.
- CO is also using the same strategy as he used for FB visas - advance rapidly at the beginning of FY and then stall/retrogress appropriately. This gives them a good picture of the demand. EB2-IC demand is unknown. People have come up with many models from the PERM data, but a lot of things have happened (people lost their jobs, some went back, some are stuck in H1B 221gs, multiple PERMs due to job changes and a parallel spouse application etc) that make demand anyone's guess. The dates are *very sensitive to the demand*. If the demand is 5K short for example, that's easily 3 extra months of advance.
- The GC outlier for FY 2012 continues to be March-June 2008. However after June 2008, demand density is exceptionally low all the way until the first half of 2010, so it is not unreasonable to expect that the SOFAD of FY 2013 might be able to cover this region.

To cut the story short, a combination of many factors are responsible for rapid advancement. The demand is low, and now, it is also artificially controlled (spike in H1B rejections in India for example) that will make the future wait time of EB2-IC very less - many speculate EB2 as a whole is going to be current in the next few years. SOFAD was high due to recession. Also, people are unable to apply for 485 right away for a variety of reasons (in fact, many in 2009 will postpone because they are not yet married) and their demand will be seen in later bulletins. The landscape has changed, and hence our perceptions need to change too. EB2-IC is no longer a 5 year hell-hole...it is down to a more reasonable 2-3 years and it might become current in a few years.

Nice post!
GC in hand wait time will still be around 4-5 years for few more years IMO. More because its all based on performance of other catagories.

[vgraj1]

Hi sportsfan33,

Thanks for the detailed explanation. My PD is 04/11 (EB2 I) and I almost forgot about GC, thinking it is going to take very long time, but the rapid advancement of PD in last few bulletins has been exciting news and made me to study this more. I hope the Govt. does something to help our EB3 brothers also (HR 3012 and some other immigration changes like diversion of some of DV lottery visas to EB categories, etc.).

[TeddyKoochu]

natvyas,

There may be something of a lull at the moment.

Most easily approvable cases from the old backlog have probably been approved by now and it is still a little early for the majority of even October new filings to be ready to adjudicate, if you consider even 4 months processing time. Those seen to date had pretty short times by normal standards. About 19% of EB2-I October filers have been approved to date.

We don't know the level of visas that are going to be available for QSP this quarter, but it can't continue at the rate seen in Q1 (or at least it is very unlikely). Having essentially cleared the backlog, CO may wait a little longer to determine that, since it will affect how much he has to retrogress dates.

EB2-ROW appears to be using less visas, but EB1 continues to consume a worryingly large number.

TRACKITT TREND
Following is a compare of the EB2 row and EB1 trend so far. The month of Jan is still in progress so the overall 2012 tally will be higher finally. All data is for primary approved cases from Oct – Jan for the respective years.
EB1 (A+B+C)
2011 - 17+21+23 = 61
2012 - 23+42+92 = 157

The number of EB1C approvals is almost at 4 times of last year. While EB1A is at the same level EB1B vases are also double now this may indicate that the impact of the Kazarian memo is now receding. Most EB1C cases will use up more visas as these folks are less likely to have us born kids as a lot of them will be in the age group 35-40 when they would have filed I140 & I485. Most of Trackitt EB1C is from India so the data should not be taken at absolute face value. The trend correlates well with high I140 approvals just prior to the start of FY 2012.
EB2 ROW
2011 - 108
2012 – 158

EB2 row is still underperforming but has picked up from the 50% line; row has a tendency to pick up later in the year. Partly this may have been due to the prevailing wage stoppage.
For now it appears that the 12K SOFAD that we got from EB1 will most likely not be available this year. EB2 ROW will hopefully compensate some of the loss. Also the Oct filers / Nov filers (Very Few) approvals for EB2 I/C have slowed down they have not been all inclusive either for Oct filers, normally when numbers are available in good supply everyone gets approved.
This maybe just my theory, I believe that CO allocated the entire 5.6K India / China annual cap in Oct itself in the month of Oct QSP quantity / volume cannot be judged. The rest of the approvals which is easily 12K including porting have come by quarterly spillover. This way CO is in fact ahead of QSP at this point and a very significant portion of the SOFAD has been used.
Good luck to everyone for the next VB which might go either way. Demand destruction is a factor for the new intake however this year since the wiggle room offered by the SOFAD left is not very much it will not significantly impact the approval line. For example an OR of .8 as opposed to 1 just causes a difference of ~ 2K numbers assuming that SOFAD will be 22K and 12K is consumed so 10K is left.

[kd2008]

AILA just posted "Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand"
http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=38263

But it is a restricted link. If anyone can get their attorneys to convey the details that would be great. Thanks!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, a quick question. Do we really assume that CO allocated the entire 5.6K in the first quarter? I think this is very highly unlikely. CO would certainly not advance the dates this rapidly if that was the case. I believe they used at most 30% as per the law, and there must be a real good explanation for the remaining numbers. Maybe they discovered some "unused numbers" from previous years, or maybe they are slowly giving us extra visas that comprehensive reform was supposed to provide in one single shot? Maybe they gave us a large chunk of spillover in Q1 itself noting the demand pattern in other categories. They have about 4 to 6 months of wiggle room to play with demand numbers, and they might slow down 140 approval rates from other categories to create an artificial boost for EB2-IC for 1 quarter.
I find it hard to believe that they used up our annual quota and yet are advancing dates.

Sports the difference of the Oct & NOV demand data was ~ 5.5 - 6K. QSP may not have been generated in Oct, this is just my own theory that CO used the entire CAP for EB2 I/C in Oct in an effort to create the 0 demand situation to justify the new intake. Last year USCIS announced in early Sep 2011 that all numbers are used up in fact this topic has been beaten to death, ever since 2007 visas have not been wasted. I believe that the actual usage and approvals and new intake are being treated as 2 separate entities as of now, so intake may still continue, however the approvals for EB2 I/C are slower than EB2 ROW and EB1 where even late Nov filers are being approved in higher numbers. CO in fact is now well prepared for all scenarios even if HR 3012 passes sometime early this year, let us hope he continues the intake.

[Kanmani]

01/23/2012: Six Months Move-Up of EB-2 Cut-Off Date Possible in March 2012 Visa Bulletin?

AILA reports that according to Mr. Oppenheim of Visa Buruea of DOS, he does not have exact prediction for March, but because of the unusual slow demand by the USCIS, upto six months move-up may be possible, even though one-year move-up may not be likely. Reportedly, at this time, they have used up 34% of total FY 2013 visa numbers and must use upto 45% by the end of February 2012. After such rapid progression, depending on the demand, they will have to decide whether the cut-off dates should remain in stay-put or even retrogress during the Summer.

courtesy: http://www.immigration-law.com/

[Reader]

Reader,
If H1B is approved before 140 revoked, your H1 will remain valid for the duration approved.

Veni, Thanks for your response. Is there any link for this information please? My company HR is not interested in filing H1 extension as my EAD is expected in a month and also is not agreeing that H1 will remain valid if the underlying 140 gets revoked which was the basis for the extension beyond 6 years.

[kd2008]

Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"


On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:

EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.


Prediction:

Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.

[gkjppp]

01/23/2012: Six Months Move-Up of EB-2 Cut-Off Date Possible in March 2012 Visa Bulletin?

AILA reports that according to Mr. Oppenheim of Visa Buruea of DOS, he does not have exact prediction for March, but because of the unusual slow demand by the USCIS, upto six months move-up may be possible, even though one-year move-up may not be likely. Reportedly, at this time, they have used up 34% of total FY 2013 visa numbers and must use upto 45% by the end of February 2012. After such rapid progression, depending on the demand, they will have to decide whether the cut-off dates should remain in stay-put or even retrogress during the Summer.

courtesy: http://www.immigration-law.com/

WOW, great news guys...

[Spectator]

01/23/2012: Six Months Move-Up of EB-2 Cut-Off Date Possible in March 2012 Visa Bulletin?

AILA reports that according to Mr. Oppenheim of Visa Buruea of DOS, he does not have exact prediction for March, but because of the unusual slow demand by the USCIS, upto six months move-up may be possible, even though one-year move-up may not be likely. Reportedly, at this time, they have used up 34% of total FY 2012 visa numbers and must use upto 45% by the end of February 2012. After such rapid progression, depending on the demand, they will have to decide whether the cut-off dates should remain in stay-put or even retrogress during the Summer.

courtesy: http://www.immigration-law.com/
That's really saying that to date, visa approvals are bang on track.

The limit for Q1 was 27% and a further 9% for January would be 36%. By the end of February, another 9% makes the 45% mentioned.

Since documentarily qualified case from the October filers should start to appear now, followed by November, then CO doesn't really have to advance the dates at all. A further advance now can't help in achieving the 45% by the end of February.

It sounds as if he will move the dates anyway, but the end looks near.

PS I have now seen the full text and will digest it. The comments re EB1 are interesting and completely at odds with what has been seen on Trackitt. Trackitt has usually been quite reliable for EB1 and correctly showed the downturn last year.

[vizcard]

Here is what I did. As soon as my dates got current. My attorney suggested that I move to the state where my PERM was filed. I work for a fortune 10 company and have offices in every state, so I moved and my H1B/LCA was also amended. Later I485 was filed. Now the crazy part is, my wife still works in a different state and I am commuting every weekend (7hrs drive one-way). Its tough with a 3 year old in the house and I miss my family everyday but we are hoping that as soon as my wife gets her EAD, she will hopefully find a job in the state where I am working. My difficulties are one more example of the sacrifices some of us have to go through for this GC.

While I empathize with your situation, it is not unique to just GC-chasers. I know Americans who have to deal with similar situations because of the job market. They have to go to other states to work but have roots somewhere else and for various reasons cannot move their families. As an example, one of my friends got laid off her job in Florida but got a job in Seattle. Her husband runs a business in Florida (which he can't just stop) and they have a house (which they can't really sell in this market without losing a ton of money) but she needs to work to pay the mortgage.

[suninphx]

Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"


On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:

EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.


Prediction:

Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.

Thanks KD!

I find comment about EB1 usage most interesting. Specifically after we had Trackitt trend calculation by T , just few posts back.

[vckomara]

I may not be able to help you directly but I will tell my experience. I am from Hyderabad and was current this months bulletin just like you. I tried talking to yourmaninIndia.com and he quoted me 35 working days for a NABC. So I took a chance and sent my family member to the main municipal office. Hyderabad is more wired electronically I guess and I was able to get my BC in 4 days. Thats a miracle without spending any money for Babus (Thanks to Anna??).

I would not recommend yourmaninindia if you are planning to apply in Feb although he is probably putting a lot of buffer in his timeline. I will go with with $400 option someone suggested if you find its reliable.


Folks - Sorry for the off-topic post. I will remove the post and the replies to the appropriate thread in a day. I am a Feb current (PD: Aug-2009) and I have two urgent questions:

1. I am in a pickle about Birth Certificate thing. I have Affidavits from parents and I also have school records however, getting either a delayed registration BC or a Non-Availability Certificate is proving to be a hassle. I am from a corruption-rich state and my parents are quite elderly and it is proving very difficult for them to get anything from the Municipality. Is it possible at all to file for 485 without a document from Municipality?

2. I need EAD urgently since my dependent needs to shift jobs in Mar-April timeframe. Would it be advisable to file 485 asap even if the documentation is not fully complete (e.g. the BC issue above) and let it go to RFE? Would any resulting RFE affect the timeline for us to get an EAD??

Thanks for your replies. There is just a week for me to file and I am freaking out a little.

[qesehmk]

sport
gut feel is not necessary in this case. As i said the Oct 2011 filings will start hitting the DOS pipeline anytime now. And there will be no need to advance dates UNLESS CO wants to advance them to build future pipeline. He however has said it clearly that hte only reason is advancing dates is because he is seeing weak demand. So if the demand grows stronger - which it will in 1 or max 2 months - what will he do.

That why I said - if we hold him true to his own words - then he must retro in 1 or 2 months MAX.



Retrogression in March is unlikely - that's just my gut feeling. The numbers have to creep up a bit more from the November/December filers to see them pulling the plug. I think they will stall (assuming they are doing QSP, which everyone agrees they are).

Here is a wild rumor for those who are interested:

"One More Month of Good News for EB-2 Indians and Chinese

Sources tell me that we're going to see one more big jump - perhaps as much as a year - in the EB-2 India and China numbers for the March Visa bulletin that comes out in early February. Then the party is going to end with stalling or retrogressing after that. You never know for sure until the actual bulletin is published, but EB-2 applicants from those two countries need to pay attention to the bulletin and be prepared to act quickly."

Source: http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2012/01/one-more-month-of-good-news-for-eb-2-indians-and-chinese.html

[mesan123]

This is what i found ....explanation by RON


Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"


On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:

•EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
•Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
•Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
•Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
•About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
•Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
•The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
•Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
•Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.

Prediction:
•Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
•• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.





AILA just posted "Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand"
http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=38263

But it is a restricted link. If anyone can get their attorneys to convey the details that would be great. Thanks!

[skpanda]

Damn.. i wished they moved 1 more year... i would be current if they do :)

neways.. 6 months move is not bad.. Good luck to folks in first half of 2010!! Be ready with all documents and file as soon as u r current!!




This is what i found ....explanation by RON


Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"


On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:

•EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
•Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
•Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
•Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
•About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
•Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
•The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
•Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
•Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.

Prediction:
•Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
•• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.

[mrdeeds]

sport
gut feel is not necessary in this case. As i said the Oct 2011 filings will start hitting the DOS pipeline anytime now. And there will be no need to advance dates UNLESS CO wants to advance them to build future pipeline. He however has said it clearly that hte only reason is advancing dates is because he is seeing weak demand. So if the demand grows stronger - which it will in 1 or max 2 months - what will he do.

That why I said - if we hold him true to his own words - then he must retro in 1 or 2 months MAX.

Thanks KD for the newsbrief!

All,

The operative word used in all bulletins and this particular update today from CO is 'filed'. USCIS knows how may AOS cases are being filed and that is reported to be 50% of their estimate. Their estimate can only be based on the number of 140s they have approved. If only 50% of AOS are being filed, does that not say something about our assumptions for demand destruction? Why can't we take CO / USCIS on their word that the filings are low. I understand that there is a 4-6 month delay in the cases hitting DOS from USCIS but both CO and USCIS knows that and they must be talking. When they say that the 'filings' are low, that to me only means that the situation is more hopeful.

Now, when I say hopeful, I don't mean from a date movement standpoint for this year. They may very well have the number of cases needed to account for the spillover etc for FY2012. But with 50% demand than estimated, that means that the retrogression may be less or movement in 2013 will continue. This is not like 2007.

Thoughts?

[TeddyKoochu]

Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"


On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:

EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.


Prediction:

Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.

KD Thanks for posting. Quite a few striking points.

USCIS comment that filing is 50% of what they expected is a combination of their expectation probably being way over the top and demand destruction. Demand destruction is definitely not at an OR of 0.5, only way to rationalize this would be that their expectation of filings was way over the top.
EB1 usage and expectation of 12K fall down is completely at odds with Trackitt where the usage is significantly higher.
34% usage till now and 45% by Feb is very much on Track. The composition of approvals will hold the key. Let us see if we get some more Oct & Nov filer approvals.
The next bulletin will likely see another 6 months of movement this will be very good news for everyone, I believe the demand data showing lower figures will be the technicality that will be used to keep the dates advancing. All the very best to everyone.

[goforgreen]

I dont think EB2 IC is down to 2-3 years to get GC, it might be true for getting EAD. For GC it still is going to be 4.5 - 5 years unless there is legislation relief. I dont think we should raise our hopes and expect to get GC in 2-3 years. Also the past record of legislation relief is very bad. The only relief in the 5-7 years has been AC21. If HR 3012 passes it will be great news for EB2 & 3 IC, but till that time it is a hell-hole of 4-5 years.

P.S Dont want to sound pessimistic but I think that is what it is.


Advancement of EB2-IC dates is not a real mystery. The pace of advancement did surprise everyone, but that the dates would advance once they pass July 2007 was well known.

- EB2-IC is a major consumer of the spillover visas from the other categories. Since the US economy still hasn't picked up after the real estate bubble burst of 2008, the demand continues to be low, and EB2-IC continues to consume about 25K SOFAD on an average.
- After the July 2007 date was passed, there was a demand cliff (0 demand). Coupled with the fact that the USCIS is exceptionally slow in processing 485 cases, dates had to be advanced rapidly to not waste any visas. A lot of 485 cases also end up in RFEs nowadays, which are not counted in demand.
- CO is also using the same strategy as he used for FB visas - advance rapidly at the beginning of FY and then stall/retrogress appropriately. This gives them a good picture of the demand. EB2-IC demand is unknown. People have come up with many models from the PERM data, but a lot of things have happened (people lost their jobs, some went back, some are stuck in H1B 221gs, multiple PERMs due to job changes and a parallel spouse application etc) that make demand anyone's guess. The dates are *very sensitive to the demand*. If the demand is 5K short for example, that's easily 3 extra months of advance.
- The GC outlier for FY 2012 continues to be March-June 2008. However after June 2008, demand density is exceptionally low all the way until the first half of 2010, so it is not unreasonable to expect that the SOFAD of FY 2013 might be able to cover this region.

To cut the story short, a combination of many factors are responsible for rapid advancement. The demand is low, and now, it is also artificially controlled (spike in H1B rejections in India for example) that will make the future wait time of EB2-IC very less - many speculate EB2 as a whole is going to be current in the next few years. SOFAD was high due to recession. Also, people are unable to apply for 485 right away for a variety of reasons (in fact, many in 2009 will postpone because they are not yet married) and their demand will be seen in later bulletins. The landscape has changed, and hence our perceptions need to change too. EB2-IC is no longer a 5 year hell-hole...it is down to a more reasonable 2-3 years and it might become current in a few years.

[mrdeeds]

KD Thanks for posting. Quite a few striking points.

USCIS comment that filing is 50% of what they expected is a combination of their expectation probably being way over the top and demand destruction. Demand destruction is definitely not at an OR of 0.5, only way to rationalize this would be that their expectation of filings was way over the top.
EB1 usage and expectation of 12K fall down is completely at odds with Trackitt where the usage is significantly higher.
34% usage till now and 45% by Feb is very much on Track. The composition of approvals will hold the key. Let us see if we get some more Oct & Nov filer approvals.
The next bulletin will likely see another 6 months of movement this will be very good news for everyone, I believe the demand data showing lower figures will be the technicality that will be used to keep the dates advancing. All the very best to everyone.

Teddy,

I respect and admire your work very much so please don't take this post as argumentative, I am just playing the devil's advocate here.

The only variable that they could have overestimated is the number of dependent filings for each primary filing. They know the number of approved I-140s. Unless they grossly overestimated the dependent ratio, where else could have they gone wrong?

When you say DD is not at 0.5, you are basing that on Trackitt etc. What's to say that our assumptions of 5% - 7% trackitt ratio is not wrong?

We all seem to be implying that there is some ulterior motive behind CO's actions and he wanting to move dates beyond those that would be reasonably fair. Their statements don't say anything like that. In fact, the AILA prediction (last bullet) hints at the USCIS predicament too in moving the dates too much in that they would have to do lot of extra work for approving EAD / AP for free. There has to be a push and a tug / deliberations between USCIS / DOS in advancing these dates and potential impact on DOS (mandate: no wasted visa numbers) and USCIS (free work in this tight budgetary environment).

CO / bulletins are not using terms like 'documentarily qualified'. They are using 'filings' implying they are looking at raw AOS filings at USCIS. Assuming a lag due to attorney workload, travel etc., there may be some lag. But they have have had 3 months of filings now to look at and they say they are seeing 50% demand.

[suninphx]

Teddy,

I respect and admire your work very much so please don't take this post as argumentative, I am just playing the devil's advocate here.

The only variable that they could have overestimated is the number of dependent filings for each primary filing. They know the number of approved I-140s. Unless they grossly overestimated the dependent ratio, where else could have they gone wrong?

When you say DD is not at 0.5, you are basing that on Trackitt etc. What's to say that our assumptions of 5% - 7% trackitt ratio is not wrong?

We all seem to be implying that there is some ulterior motive behind CO's actions and he wanting to move dates beyond those that would be reasonably fair. Their statements don't say anything like that. In fact, the AILA prediction (last bullet) hints at the USCIS predicament too in moving the dates too much in that they would have to do lot of extra work for approving EAD / AP for free. There has to be a push and a tug / deliberations between USCIS / DOS in advancing these dates and potential impact on DOS (mandate: no wasted visa numbers) and USCIS (free work in this tight budgetary environment).

Thats very logical post. I have same question...what will cause USCIS to assume extra ordinary high demand numbers. They are the ones who have actual data (like total I140s approved catagory wise etc.). And for dependent ratio also they should be very near to actual number based on previous data.

As for trackitt % , its really any ones guess. I dont think we have sufficient data to have handle on those numbers.

[kd2008]

KD Thanks for posting. Quite a few striking points.

USCIS comment that filing is 50% of what they expected is a combination of their expectation probably being way over the top and demand destruction. Demand destruction is definitely not at an OR of 0.5, only way to rationalize this would be that their expectation of filings was way over the top.
EB1 usage and expectation of 12K fall down is completely at odds with Trackitt where the usage is significantly higher.
34% usage till now and 45% by Feb is very much on Track. The composition of approvals will hold the key. Let us see if we get some more Oct & Nov filer approvals.
The next bulletin will likely see another 6 months of movement this will be very good news for everyone, I believe the demand data showing lower figures will be the technicality that will be used to keep the dates advancing. All the very best to everyone.

Teddy, please be aware that the prediction part may be Ron Gotcher's opinion and not AILA's. He is generally right, but not always. I would like folks to offer/volunteer a line by line interpretation of the AILA doc if possible.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thats very logical post. I have same question...what will cause USCIS to assume extra ordinary high demand numbers. They are the ones who have actual data (like total I140s approved catagory wise etc.). And for dependent ratio also they should be very near to actual number based on previous data.

As for trackitt % , its really any ones guess. I dont think we have sufficient data to have handle on those numbers.


Teddy,

I respect and admire your work very much so please don't take this post as argumentative, I am just playing the devil's advocate here.

The only variable that they could have overestimated is the number of dependent filings for each primary filing. They know the number of approved I-140s. Unless they grossly overestimated the dependent ratio, where else could have they gone wrong?

When you say DD is not at 0.5, you are basing that on Trackitt etc. What's to say that our assumptions of 5% - 7% trackitt ratio is not wrong?

We all seem to be implying that there is some ulterior motive behind CO's actions and he wanting to move dates beyond those that would be reasonably fair. Their statements don't say anything like that. In fact, the AILA prediction (last bullet) hints at the USCIS predicament too in moving the dates too much in that they would have to do lot of extra work for approving EAD / AP for free. There has to be a push and a tug / deliberations between USCIS / DOS in advancing these dates and potential impact on DOS (mandate: no wasted visa numbers) and USCIS (free work in this tight budgetary environment).

Refer to the following post by Spec that gives details on the OR. Trackitt is not being used here at all.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?656-Overall-Ratio-Transformation-Factor-Demand-Destruction-An-Explanation-of-Terms
What I had intended to say here if OR of 1 is what they had expected if they are basing this on 1st half of 2007 where the 485 numbers correlate well with an OR of 1. Then an OR of 0.5 is actually quite drastic. Quite literally it means that 2 perms just let to just 1 485 quite a reversal! We really don't know what is their baseline from which they got 50% my assumption is that the logical baseline may have been the first half of 2007.

[suninphx]

Refer to the following post by Spec that gives details on the OR. Trackitt is not being used here at all.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?656-Overall-Ratio-Transformation-Factor-Demand-Destruction-An-Explanation-of-Terms
What I had intended to say here if OR of 1 is what they had expected if they are basing this on 1st half of 2007 where the 485 numbers correlate well with an OR of 1. Then an OR of 0.5 is actually quite drastic.

Teddy,

I know that we don't (and should not) use trackitt for OR calculation. I was trying to understand your logic when you said 'USCIS expectation may be well over the top'? My question is what will make USCIS to assume 'way over the top' demand?

Update: I read you updated post now. Most likely USCIS is using OR of >1 . If we assume that to be 1.4 for calculation sake then they have got 50% of that. So that gives us OR (in our terms ) of 0.7

[kd2008]

Refer to the following post by Spec that gives details on the OR. Trackitt is not being used here at all.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?656-Overall-Ratio-Transformation-Factor-Demand-Destruction-An-Explanation-of-Terms
What I had intended to say here if OR of 1 is what they had expected if they are basing this on 1st half of 2007 where the 485 numbers correlate well with an OR of 1. Then an OR of 0.5 is actually quite drastic.

Teddy, yes, indeed. USCIS is known to bungle its math, so I wouldn't be surprised if it revised its estimates. my expectation is:

USCIS expected PERM approvals x 0.97 (EB2 I -140 approval rate) x 0.7 (for EB2:EB3 split) x 2.125 as its filing numbers. It ended up getting half of this. So an overall OR may be 0.7215

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I know that we don't (and should not) use trackitt for OR calculation. I was trying to understand your logic when you said 'USCIS expectation may be well over the top'? My question is what will make USCIS to assume 'way over the top' demand?

Only they would know what baseline they are using. Ideally they should use the most recent data which is the first half of 2007 where the volume correlates well with OR of 1. For simplicity not much of a significant difference between 2007 first half and second so coming to 50% is quite drastic.
So quite literally it means that 2 perms just let to just 1 485 quite a reversal! We really don't know what is their baseline from which they got 50% my assumption is that the logical baseline may have been the first half of 2007 but only they will know, I find it hard to believe the 50% drop / decline statement.

[mrdeeds]

Refer to the following post by Spec that gives details on the OR. Trackitt is not being used here at all.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?656-Overall-Ratio-Transformation-Factor-Demand-Destruction-An-Explanation-of-Terms
What I had intended to say here if OR of 1 is what they had expected if they are basing this on 1st half of 2007 where the 485 numbers correlate well with an OR of 1. Then an OR of 0.5 is actually quite drastic. Quite literally it means that 2 perms just let to just 1 485 quite a reversal !

Got that, but even with the variables of OR from Spec's post, the real unknowns in play right now as I understand it are Demand Destruction and Dependent Ratio.

In
Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed., the CO is also wondering about Dependent Ratio.

In
Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested., the CO is stating a fact that they are seeing 50% demand of their estimate. If I read the point correctly, it also implies that they can actually 'see' the AOS filings. I don't get what he means by DOS not being able to see cases prior to Sep 2010, anyone?

To your point about the correlation of OR 1 with 1st half of 2007 cases, could it be that the real DD came starting in 2008 and 2009 as the economy turned? Maybe the DD factor of the OR equation changed after 2007? Logically, it would make sense.

[Kanmani]

KD

I dont think USCIS would consider perm numbers as their start point for AOS estimation as we do here. They might use I-140 data as base to build their assumptions.

[suninphx]

Only they would know what baseline they are using. Ideally they should use the most recent data which is the first half of 2007 where the volume correlates well with OR of 1. For simplicity not much of a significant difference between 2007 first half and second so coming to 50% is quite drastic.
So quite literally it means that 2 perms just let to just 1 485 quite a reversal! We really don't know what is their baseline from which they got 50% my assumption is that the logical baseline may have been the first half of 2007 but only they will know, I find it hard to believe the 50% drop / decline statement.

Yeah surely DD of 50% is quite drastic. Most likely they have OR of >1 (may be in 1.4/1.5 range). Or if as Kanmani mentioned they are going by I140 numbers (which is what they should really be doing) then mix of EB2:EB3 percentage and dependent ratio they are using may be different than what we use.

[qblogfan]

You over estimated the IQ of USCIS. I don't think they are smart enough to use the formula you provided. Most of the workers in USCIS only hold high school diploma. Yes, just these idiots decided the fate of thousands of smart Phds and Masters.


Teddy, yes, indeed. USCIS is known to bungle its math, so I wouldn't be surprised if it revised its estimates. my expectation is:

USCIS expected PERM approvals x 0.97 (EB2 I -140 approval rate) x 0.7 (for EB2:EB3 split) x 2.125 as its filing numbers. It ended up getting half of this. So an overall OR may be 0.7215

[Kanmani]

I find it hard to believe the 50% drop / decline statement.

Teddy
Some weeks ago , we got a link to I-140 Receipts volume by one our forum members , Suninphx has extracted some numbers out of it which clearly showed a drastic reduction in I-140 numbers itself during 2008, 2009 .

EB2 I-140 total ( excluding NIW)

2007 - 60000
2008 - 28000
2009 - 17000
2010 - 35000

[nishant2200]

Would like to thank CM for posting analsyis in his blog in the comments section of the Feb 2012 VB predictions post, otheriwse it is AILA inside information which requires registered access. I can see the link on AILA.org, but can't access otherwise.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/01/visa-bulletin-february-2012.html#comment-form

His comments are praiseworthy, especially his take on the 12k figures for both EB1+EB5.

A lot of discussion already has happened on this in last few pages, I would just add one point. A VB is released around the 10th for next month, so each month, the lawyers and applicants know if they are still going to be current next month. In any month, where the VB if retrogresses, might see a bit more rush of applications, as the comfort factor will be gone. A stall would also lead to a bit of apprehension. I have seen that big law firms take it bit easy otherwise. This shouldn't be a big factor though, just a small spike.

Anyways, overall, let's continue the discussion. Very enjoyable to read.

[suninphx]

Would like to thank CM for posting analsyis in his blog in the comments section of the Feb 2012 VB predictions post, otheriwse it is AILA inside information which requires registered access. I can see the link on AILA.org, but can't access otherwise.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/01/visa-bulletin-february-2012.html#comment-form

His comments are praiseworthy, especially his take on the 12k figures for both EB1+EB5.

A lot of discussion already has happened on this in last few pages, I would just add one point. A VB is released around the 10th for next month, so each month, the lawyers and applicants know if they are still going to be current next month. In any month, where the VB if retrogresses, might see a bit more rush of applications, as the comfort factor will be gone. A stall would also lead to a bit of apprehension. I have seen that big law firms take it bit easy otherwise. This shouldn't be a big factor though, just a small spike.

Anyways, overall, let's continue the discussion. Very enjoyable to read.

Nishant- thanks for sharing. Its really a good read.

PS: Each time I read CM's post I keep wondering if Teddy and CM are either very good friends or is same person :d Their use of words, line of thinking match very closely. Not sure if any one else observed this. :)

[mrdeeds]

Teddy
Some weeks ago , we got a link to I-140 Receipts volume by one our forum members , Suninphx has extracted some numbers out of it which clearly showed a drastic reduction in I-140 numbers itself during 2008, 2009 .

EB2 I-140 total ( excluding NIW)

2007 - 60000
2008 - 28000
2009 - 17000
2010 - 35000

Kanmani, this is quite significant. Can you or someone please point me to the link? I searched but couldn't find it.

[nishant2200]

Nishant- thanks for sharing. Its really a good read.

PS: Each time I read CM's post I keep wondering if Teddy and CM are either very good friends or is same person :d Their use of words, line of thinking match very closely. Not sure if any one else observed this. :)

:D

Interesting.... hmmmmm

All in all, looks good man, this entire series of events since October, unexpectedly good. Never in my dreams I had thought in Jan 2012 itself, I would have an EAD. The FY 2012 is really turning into a bonanza.

[suninphx]

Teddy
Some weeks ago , we got a link to I-140 Receipts volume by one our forum members , Suninphx has extracted some numbers out of it which clearly showed a drastic reduction in I-140 numbers itself during 2008, 2009 .

EB2 I-140 total ( excluding NIW)

2007 - 60000
2008 - 28000
2009 - 17000
2010 - 35000

While there may be reduced demand point to be noted that I140 for PDs in 2008 and 2009 were getting approved in 2010(In another words 2010 numbers have PDs from 2008/09). Having said that if there is more discussion on that data that is going to be helpful.



Sun

you were in control of that graphical representaiton right ? do you have it ?

Let me try to find that. Give me couple of hours please.

[TeddyKoochu]

Nishant- thanks for sharing. Its really a good read.

PS: Each time I read CM's post I keep wondering if Teddy and CM are either very good friends or is same person :d Their use of words, line of thinking match very closely. Not sure if any one else observed this. :)

Thanks I will take it as a compliment :) CM has ceratinly made some great obserations here.


What is tells is last year when Mr. O made statement about 12000, those EB5 visa usage numbers were baked into it. His above statement clearly siggests that while calculating projections he takes into account EB5 spillover upto EB1. Last years projection was minimum 12000 for half year but included EB5. This was the reason we didnt see much movement later in the year.

This year he has not used word"minimum", these 12000 is total projected just based on calculations (that is how I read it not sure about if those are real numbers) and includes EB5 spill up.

This chimes well with trackitt trend where EB1 usage is higher compared to last year but EB5 visa use is also high. 12000 is maximum we can expect from EB1+EB5 this year. It is too early to say but USCIS processing is still upto October 2012 and EB1 visa usage may pick up later in the year. As of now based on trackitt trend 12000 looks high ball number.

[TeddyKoochu]

While there may be reduced demand point to be noted that I140 for PDs in 2008 and 2009 were getting approved in 2010(In another words 2010 numbers have PDs from 2008/09). Having said that if there is more discussion on that data that is going to be helpful.

Sun thanks for clarifying, Kanmani I hope you agree as well.

[mrdeeds]

Let me try to find that. Give me couple of hours please.

Sun, I suspect that representation would be from page 7 on http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-rec_extraordinaryability_petitions.pdf

I found your posts around #3660 on this thread that had a good discussion on this.

[kd2008]

Please check http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=37970 for EB-5 FY 12 Q1 statistics

YTD FY 12 visas issues under EB5: 2364 - data on page 14.

These numbers are astounding! I guess no spillover from EB-5 anymore.

[suninphx]

Sun, I suspect that representation would be from page 7 on http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-rec_extraordinaryability_petitions.pdf

I found your posts around #3660 on this thread that had a good discussion on this.

Yes thats right. Thanks mrdeeds!

Kanmani- believe this is the link you were looking for?

[mrdeeds]

While there may be reduced demand point to be noted that I140 for PDs in 2008 and 2009 were getting approved in 2010(In another words 2010 numbers have PDs from 2008/09). Having said that if there is more discussion on that data that is going to be helpful.

Guys, is there an approximation of the numbers that had a delay in getting approved for PDs in 2008 and 2009. From a personal note, my earlier PERM with 2007 PD was audited and then denied in FY 2010.

I think it is a good point that 2008, 2009 pds were being approved in 2010 but we need a better estimation of what percentage of those PDs are reflected in 2010 and 2011 numbers. I can't imagine it to be huge as based on some other report I read, if a PERM is audited, it has a 35-40% chance of being denied. So there is a DD there as well.

I think the fact that 2007 had 60000 receipts dropped to 20 some thousand in 2008 and 2009 is a very significant point. It also plays with what we are seeing and hearing from CO's reports. I completely agree with Sun that we need more discussion on this aspect.

[mrdeeds]

You can find the breakdown data here.... http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India

Thanks Kanmani!

[Kanmani]

Rest of 2010 filers,
If CO is not yet decided with the March movement and waiting for the USCIS signal regarding ballpark total of filers, then there will be a good forward movement considering the fact that many of us are not going to file in the first week.

Several of our friends received mail from their attorneys ( including ourselves) not to rush them . ( I could see 2008 PDers around us are still filling their forms, waiting for affidavits ... )

Hope for the best !

[suninphx]

Rest of 2010 filers,
If CO is not yet decided with the March movement and waiting for the USCIS signal regarding ballpark total of filers, then there will be a good forward movement considering the fact that many of us are not going to file in the first week.

Several of our friends received mail from their attorneys ( including ourselves) not to rush them . ( I could see 2008 PDers around us are still filling their forms, waiting for affidavits ... )

Hope for the best !

Sometimes I find it hard to understand why attorneys need so much time. Most of the information/documents we provide. Forms are really straight forward to fill. (specially I765)...puzzling

[kd2008]

Sometimes I find it hard to understand why attorneys need so much time. Most of the information/documents we provide. Forms are really straight forward to fill. (specially I765)...puzzling

They cannot just robo-sign the applications saying they represent you. They actually are expected to do their due diligence and advise their clients of deficiencies, if any. So they do have documentation on their part to note even if the process is simple and the clients do all the legwork.

[mrdeeds]

Folks, can someone please tell me which EB categories require filing of an I-140? Is it all or just EB2 and EB3?

[suninphx]

They cannot just robo-sign the applications saying they represent you. They actually are expected to do their due diligence and advise their clients of deficiencies, if any. So they do have documentation on their part to note even if the process is simple and the clients do all the legwork.

Come on KD- no one is expecting them to robo sign. But still I find processing time to be high. You may have different opinion and thats fine.

[kd2008]

folks, can someone please tell me which eb categories require filing of an i-140? Is it all or just eb2 and eb3?

eb1, eb2, eb3

[mrdeeds]

eb1, eb2, eb3

Thanks KD! and is it the same for PERM as well or EB1s don't require PERM?

[kd2008]

Thanks KD! and is it the same for PERM as well or EB1s don't require PERM?

EB1 does not require PERM, EB2 and EB3 require PERM

[Spectator]

I have looked at the relationship between the figures presented in the graph and PERM Certifications.

I do not think using the FY2007 figures from the graph as baseline is appropriate, since there are several factors that would lead to higher filing numbers of I-140 that are not on the same basis as future years.

Generally, the data shows that between 75% to 90% of Certified PERM lead to an EB2 I-140 filing, depending on the % of EB2 used.

The data also shows a very high approval rate for EB2 I-140.

This appears to be in line with the 20% factor most people allow in the calculation of the Transformation Factor (albeit it is shown as I-140 Denial %, rather than PERM to I-140 %).

[Spectator]

EB1 does not require PERM, EB2 and EB3 require PERMkd,

I know you know this already.

EB2-NIW does not require PERM

Schedule A (mainly EB3, but also EB2-EA) does not require PERM.

The Department of Labor has made a schedule of occupations for which it delegates authority to the USCIS to approve labor certifications. Schedule A, Group I, includes physical therapists and nurses. Schedule A, Group II includes aliens of exceptional ability in the sciences and arts (except performing arts).

[vgraj1]

Hi Spectator,

My EB2 I PD is 04/11 from State A. For personal reasons, I want to relocate to State B temporarily and then come back to State A when my PD becomes current. Based on your calculations, when PD 04/11 is likely to become current?

Also, another question. After filing I-485 in State A, can I move to State B ?

Thanks!

[vgraj1]

Hi Sportsfan33,

Thanks. I am working for a Fortune 10 company who has offices in most parts of US and that gives me flexibility to relocate. My Attorney said he will take care of H1B when I relocate but I need to come back to State A when they file I-485 because the approved I-140 is based on State A.

So, after filing I-485 in State A, can I relocate to State B?

[qriousjunta]

A similar situation for me, i moved to different city in same state with another employer a year back who promised to file PERM and 140 but it got denied last month (attorney's filed PERM wrongly) so all i am left out is with previous approved I-140, now i am working on options to go back to my previous employer to file 485 if PD become current, should i go back to make use of my approved 140 with PD 6/1/2010? or can i ask my employer to file once again a PERM and 140 and port my previous PD? What are my options and please suggest which is feasible in current time line?

Also a follow up question is
* If i choose to go back to previous employer when PD gets current : Can i produce pay stub from current employer?

[shaumack]

Sometimes I find it hard to understand why attorneys need so much time. Most of the information/documents we provide. Forms are really straight forward to fill. (specially I765)...puzzling

One reason it takes lot of time for the attorneys to file in the corporate world is that they tend to send many different applications from the clients together in a batch. Some firms are setup-ed to do this 2 to 3 times in a month. In most of these cases, checks are actually issued by the law firm itself which are later POed to the company account. To have smooth cash flow and avoid chaos this tend to cause some delay in the filings. It is not like that they are not working on your case or it is not ready to file but they are just waiting to prepare few other cases so that they can be filed together.

[Kanmani]

vgraj

After filing I-485,any further correspondence by USCIS will be sent to your home address . So it is mandatory that you must update your address to USCIS whenever you change the same ( even within the same city , same apartment complex).

There is a form for filing change of address which u can self file. After filing I-485, wherever you move do it after 180 days to safeguard your AOS.

The change of address form applies to GC holders and naturalized citizens too which enables the DHS to keep loop with the ALIEN . I dont know how many of the PRs and N.citizens are filing.


Hi Sportsfan33,

Thanks. I am working for a Fortune 10 company who has offices in most parts of US and that gives me flexibility to relocate. My Attorney said he will take care of H1B when I relocate but I need to come back to State A when they file I-485 because the approved I-140 is based on State A.

So, after filing I-485 in State A, can I relocate to State B?

[Kanmani]

qriousjunta

If my understanding is correct ,

Company A applied for Perm, I-140 with PD 6/1/2010.
Left company A and joined company B where I-140 denied .

Your question is if you join Company A again , do you need a new perm ?

The answer is NO . You can join back Company A and goahead with I-485

[qriousjunta]

Thanks Kanmani, i have edited my post for better clarity.

[Kanmani]

* If i choose to go back to previous employer when PD gets current : Can i produce pay stub from current employer?
Is this paystubs question for filing I-485 ?
If you are not joining Company A immediately, then get an reputed attorney to file your I-485 "with an intention of future employment" and you must join company A and work for them later .

[suninphx]

Guys ,

I am talking about time taken by attorneys to 'prepare' your forms and give it back to you for validation. I am not saying every one should file on day 1 - I am not going to it myself. Fact that irritates me when I am told that they are 'working' on case- which BTW means they are filling information provided by you in those forms. I mean come on if I don't hear anything from attorneys for 2 weeks and then at end of 2 weeks all they do is send those forms to you ( with some mistakes) then I don't think it's rocket science work they are doing. Filing is altogether different matter but they can at least prepare those forms and give back to us for cross checking.

[mesan123]

You are right sun....i faced the same issue....the attornies wont work with your file, it is there team who work on your file...in one of my h1b filling the guys really messed up applying for moretime than what i can get....this happened after almost 5-8 mails from me mentioning i didnt have 3 years left in my visa then... by the time file reaches the attorny, his team eats most of the time and they act so busy where in there are not ready enough to listen what you want to tell them....



Guys ,

I am talking about time taken by attorneys to 'prepare' your forms and give it back to you for validation. I am not saying every one should file on day 1 - I am not going to it myself. Fact that irritates me when I am told that they are 'working' on case- which BTW means they are filling information provided by you in those forms. I mean come on if I don't hear anything from attorneys for 2 weeks and then at end of 2 weeks all they do is send those forms to you ( with some mistakes) then I don't think it's rocket science work they are doing. Filing is altogether different matter but they can at least prepare those forms and give back to us for cross checking.

[shaumack]

Guys ,

I am talking about time taken by attorneys to 'prepare' your forms and give it back to you for validation. I am not saying every one should file on day 1 - I am not going to it myself. Fact that irritates me when I am told that they are 'working' on case- which BTW means they are filling information provided by you in those forms. I mean come on if I don't hear anything from attorneys for 2 weeks and then at end of 2 weeks all they do is send those forms to you ( with some mistakes) then I don't think it's rocket science work they are doing. Filing is altogether different matter but they can at least prepare those forms and give back to us for cross checking.

I can relate to what you are saying. I have been burnt via attorneys many times in past. Previously during July fiasco they filed my AOS application using wrong fees which costed us 4 years.

I was current again in July 2011 bulletin, which came in around 9th June. My papers were with them on 17th June. Earliest they got back to me was in first week of July with forms completely pre-populated wrong. I have to cross-check the form and rectify small-small errors. Smallest but important ones like "were you inspected by officer on last entry to US", Obviously since I was on H1B and entered through POE, answer should be 'yes' but they conveniently marked it 'No'. If I have not checked that error, I could been clearly identified as an illegal immigrant. Though issue would been solved later but could have costed me high lead time and stress. So take some time to read each line carefully. They tend to make lot of errors especially when work load is high.

Once my paper were all set, I thought we are ready to file but to my surprise they had not initiated request for EVL until second week. We finally filed on 19th July. It sucks but you have to be on your toe with them.

[Gclongwait]

I can relate to what you are saying. I have been burnt via attorneys many times in past. Previously during July fiasco they filed my AOS application using wrong fees which costed us 4 years.

I was current again in July 2011 bulletin, which came in around 9th June. My papers were with them on 17th June. Earliest they got back to me was in first week of July with forms completely pre-populated wrong. I have to cross-check the form and rectify small-small errors. Smallest but important ones like "were you inspected by officer on last entry to US", Obviously since I was on H1B and entered through POE, answer should be 'yes' but they conveniently marked it 'No'. If I have not checked that error, I could been clearly identified as an illegal immigrant. Though issue would been solved later but could have costed me high lead time and stress. So take some time to read each line carefully. They tend to make lot of errors especially when work load is high.

Once my paper were all set, I thought we are ready to file but to my surprise they had not initiated request for EVL until second week. We finally filed on 19th July. It sucks but you have to be on your toe with them.

I agree on the last para. I dont know why they dont do stuff in parallel. After we signed and submitted everything then they initiated a request for checks and EVL from my company. Problem is not even time taken. I personally dont think it affects your application if you file on 1st or 21st, but the fact that they dont tell you anything until you email them 2 to 3 times. Even if they just give you info as to what the status is that would help.

[vgraj1]

Thanks Kanmani!

[srisri]

Suninphx,

I felt my attorney was going slow on my case, I sent her an email asking her to confirm if my documents are good and let me know if any are missing, there was no response even after a day, so called her up to find out she is going through almost 80 documents per person trying to file in an online system for 30 cases. She asked for my help and asked me to print all the documents and mail her as she doesn't have time to file all my documents, I felt sorry for her the way she said.

As for the main topic of the thread, I understood from my conversation with the paralegal the number of applications to be filed in feb are significantly higher compared to the number of applications that are being filed in January. This trend may be specific to my company but was different than the PERM statistics. Do the gurus think is this what CO is also surprised about.

[qriousjunta]

True, that's what cause me file 4 PERM applications and the carelessness of attorney put me and my family in deep stress state. Not to offend anyone directly , the attorney do have a biased on the client(employer) and their size of business to their law firm and many a times they do not want to interact with the alien candidates directly.

[vizcard]

I have always had very good experiences with the lawyers/paralegals on my cases. True they tend to take time but I attribute that to 3 reasons
1. Volume of work
2. Batch processing
3. Extra due diligence (I have Fragomen and they had some issues a few yrs back).

I feel like a little better work upfront will minimize the risk of RFEs later so I don't mind if it's reason#3.

[gkjppp]

Would like to thank CM for posting analsyis in his blog in the comments section of the Feb 2012 VB predictions post, otheriwse it is AILA inside information which requires registered access. I can see the link on AILA.org, but can't access otherwise.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/01/visa-bulletin-february-2012.html#comment-form

His comments are praiseworthy, especially his take on the 12k figures for both EB1+EB5.

A lot of discussion already has happened on this in last few pages, I would just add one point. A VB is released around the 10th for next month, so each month, the lawyers and applicants know if they are still going to be current next month. In any month, where the VB if retrogresses, might see a bit more rush of applications, as the comfort factor will be gone. A stall would also lead to a bit of apprehension. I have seen that big law firms take it bit easy otherwise. This shouldn't be a big factor though, just a small spike.

Anyways, overall, let's continue the discussion. Very enjoyable to read.

Guys, read this from CM

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/01/eb-category-fy-2012-demand-upto-january.html

CM also expecting retrogression is not possible before this summer, which is good news and as well if it happens dates moves back to last quarter of 2008 or to sometime in 2009 PD. As Nishant mentioned CM must be CO's friend.

[Spectator]

Some of the statements in the AILA document are still bugging me.

It says:


Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.

Firstly, it says the low usage is an "assumption". That is not the same as saying EB1 usage will be low based on usage to date.

More important, is the statement about EB5 usage. That is completely at odds with what has been reported in the EB5 Stakeholders Meeting of Jan 23, 2012.

That reported EB5 visa usage in FY2012 YTD of 2,364 (*Estimate of FY12 Visas Issued YTD, reported by the Department of State as of 01/17/2012) versus 3,463 for the whole of FY2011. That is in line with the steadily increasing Receipt Levels.

So, how can there be an expectation that EB5 will only contribute 1,000 less visas in FY2012? That would mean that only a further 2,100 visas will be used by EB5 in the remaining nearly 3 quarters.

The statements in the AILA document attributed to CO may be great to justify continuing to move the COD forward, but they raise as many questions as they answer.

There is a distinct lack of any hard numbers in the statement.

[vizcard]

Some of the statements in the AILA document are still bugging me.

It says:



Firstly, it says the low usage is an "assumption". That is not the same as saying EB1 usage will be low based on usage to date.

More important, is the statement about EB5 usage. That is completely at odds with what has been reported in the EB5 Stakeholders Meeting of Jan 23, 2012.

That reported EB5 visa usage in FY2012 YTD of 2,364 (*Estimate of FY12 Visas Issued YTD, reported by the Department of State as of 01/17/2012) versus 3,463 for the whole of FY2011. That is in line with the steadily increasing Receipt Levels.

So, how can there be an expectation that EB5 will only contribute 1,000 less visas in FY2012? That would mean that only a further 2,100 visas will be used by EB5 in the remaining nearly 3 quarters.

The statements in the AILA document attributed to CO may be great to justify continuing to move the COD forward, but they raise as many questions as they answer.

There is a distinct lack of any hard numbers in the statement.

And you are surprised by this why? they need folks like the gurus here to make sense of whats going on. Otherwise its shoot from the hip.

[kd2008]

34% YTD usage of visas across all EB categories

According to trackitt approvals per month for all categories:

Oct 2011 - 309
Nov 2011 - 228
Dec 2011 - 245
Jan 2012 - 155 so far

I can see why Mr. CO expected visa usage to be more than 34%. He allocated ~8.5K to EB2IC in Oct 2011 so the visa usage should be more than normal and not less.

But this brings perplexing thoughts. As usual USCIS is a big black box that nobody can decipher and their numbers most unreliable. Has their processing been slowing down? If so, why? They had a huge pending inventory at the start of the fiscal year. They have built a considerable pipeline in the past few months with the EB2IC date movement by Mr. CO.

In all, it is great that they are slow as more folks get to file I-485 as the dates progress. My suspicion is that USCIS is playing a little game here. They will come with the news that "oh look what we found ..a large pile of files" some time in April/May. Turds!

[mrdeeds]

Spec, talking about missing hard data, this is what's confusing me as I look at the graph of I-140 receipts again and again.

From that graph, Total EB2 receipts (excluding NIW) for FY 2009 were ~18000. Assuming a 100% approval rate and assuming all of the approved cases went on to file 485 that year, that would mean that 18000 visas for EB2 were issued that year based on the receipts. Now, there are 40332 EB2 visas available. Since I/C weren't current, let's assume that of the 40332, 5.6k I/C were allocated. That leaves 34732 EB2 left. Assuming 18000 usage, that leaves 34732 - 18000 = 16732 EB2 ROW available for spillover in that year.

Looking at your spillover numbers in the Data and Facts section, that was not the case. So it doesn't make sense.

Can someone please point out what I am missing in the calculation above? Being new to this, I am hoping that it's something obvious..

[vizcard]

Spec, talking about missing hard data, this is what's confusing me as I look at the graph of I-140 receipts again and again.

From that graph, Total EB2 receipts (excluding NIW) for FY 2009 were ~18000. Assuming a 100% approval rate and assuming all of the approved cases went on to file 485 that year, that would mean that 18000 visas for EB2 were issued that year based on the receipts. Now, there are 40332 EB2 visas available. Since I/C weren't current, let's assume that of the 40332, 5.6k I/C were allocated. That leaves 34732 EB2 left. Assuming 18000 usage, that leaves 34732 - 18000 = 16732 EB2 ROW available for spillover in that year.

Looking at your spillover numbers in the Data and Facts section, that was not the case. So it doesn't make sense.

Can someone please point out what I am missing in the calculation above? Being new to this, I am hoping that it's something obvious..

Have you considered dependents in your calculation. 1 I140 is not = 1 I485.

[mesan123]

Hope that last line happens and date move to mid 2011.....so that people can get atleast EAD's


34% YTD usage of visas across all EB categories

According to trackitt approvals per month for all categories:

Oct 2011 - 309
Nov 2011 - 228
Dec 2011 - 245
Jan 2012 - 155 so far

I can see why Mr. CO expected visa usage to be more than 34%. He allocated ~8.5K to EB2IC in Oct 2011 so the visa usage should be more than normal and not less.

But this brings perplexing thoughts. As usual USCIS is a big black box that nobody can decipher and their numbers most unreliable. Has their processing been slowing down? If so, why? They had a huge pending inventory at the start of the fiscal year. They have built a considerable pipeline in the past few months with the EB2IC date movement by Mr. CO.

In all, it is great that they are slow as more folks get to file I-485 as the dates progress. My suspicion is that USCIS is playing a little game here. They will come with the news that "oh look what we found ..a large pile of files" some time in April/May. Turds!

[mesan123]

An explanation by Attorny Ron...why there are moving EB2 I/C dates in that pace...

"Since EB3 no longer receives any "fall down" visas from the EB2 category, supply is fixed at approximately 40,000 overall and 2,800 for single state limited countries. Existing known demand is sufficient for the Visa Office to create very accurate cutoff dates for this category. Please keep in mind that the China/India EB2 cutoff date advances are artificial. That is, they have been moved substantially further forward than would be the case if the potential demand were realized. Let me explain this a bit.

For purposes of discussing the creation of cutoff dates, there is actual demand and potential demand. Actual demand manifests itself though immediate requests for visa numbers. That is, when the NVC submits a list of "documentarily qualified" applicants, or the USCIS asks for a specific visa in order to approve and adjustment application, that is actual demand. Potential demand can be found in approved I-140 petitions and pending AOS applications that have not been acted upon.

If all potential demand resolved into documentarily qualified applicants at the NVC, or approved AOS cases, then we would see a significant retrogression of cutoff dates - likely back to 2007 for China/India EB2. Of course, this has never happened, nor is it likely to happen. Rather, these potential cases will resolve into actual cases over an extended period of time.

The problem that the Visa Office has is that they are mandated with making sure that the entire immigrant visa quota is used each year and that no visas are wasted. Since the USCIS is not holding up their end of the bargain by processing their pending AOS cases to completion (at least in numbers large enough to matter), the Visa Office has no choice by to advance cutoff dates in order to qualify more applicants who have selected overseas consular processing. The overseas visa posts will take up the slack left by the USCIS failure to approve enough AOS cases. "

[suninphx]

Spec, talking about missing hard data, this is what's confusing me as I look at the graph of I-140 receipts again and again.

From that graph, Total EB2 receipts (excluding NIW) for FY 2009 were ~18000. Assuming a 100% approval rate and assuming all of the approved cases went on to file 485 that year, that would mean that 18000 visas for EB2 were issued that year based on the receipts. Now, there are 40332 EB2 visas available. Since I/C weren't current, let's assume that of the 40332, 5.6k I/C were allocated. That leaves 34732 EB2 left. Assuming 18000 usage, that leaves 34732 - 18000 = 16732 EB2 ROW available for spillover in that year.

Looking at your spillover numbers in the Data and Facts section, that was not the case. So it doesn't make sense.

Can someone please point out what I am missing in the calculation above? Being new to this, I am hoping that it's something obvious..

We will need to know the % of ROW filers out of 18000 receipts. Because ROW only could have filed I485 as IC was not current. Another thing to note that many times there is concurrent filing for catagories which are current. And we have to factor in dependents as Vizcard suggested.

[mrdeeds]

34% YTD usage of visas across all EB categories

According to trackitt approvals per month for all categories:

Oct 2011 - 309
Nov 2011 - 228
Dec 2011 - 245
Jan 2012 - 155 so far

I can see why Mr. CO expected visa usage to be more than 34%. He allocated ~8.5K to EB2IC in Oct 2011 so the visa usage should be more than normal and not less.

But this brings perplexing thoughts. As usual USCIS is a big black box that nobody can decipher and their numbers most unreliable. Has their processing been slowing down? If so, why? They had a huge pending inventory at the start of the fiscal year. They have built a considerable pipeline in the past few months with the EB2IC date movement by Mr. CO.

In all, it is great that they are slow as more folks get to file I-485 as the dates progress. My suspicion is that USCIS is playing a little game here. They will come with the news that "oh look what we found ..a large pile of files" some time in April/May. Turds!

KD, what's the incentive for the USCIS to play games here? A temporary fee influx results in a long term for free service for them. I keep harping back to the actual words used in the bulletins and elsewhere.


USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond.


There is never any mention of USCIS processing rate etc. in these bulletins. For a brief moment, can we all leave aside all the assumptions that we have gone by (and which have worked in the past) and just delve into the actual facts coming out. If it is indeed that the filings are 50% of what they expected, can we look at the data (including the I-140 filings drop in 2008 and 2009) and see if we can figure out any logical reasons to corraborate the drop in filings. Read 'filings' and not 'documentary qualified'.

I am trying to do the same but my head is already spinning..so I will be asking a lot of dumb questions here.

[Spectator]

Spec, talking about missing hard data, this is what's confusing me as I look at the graph of I-140 receipts again and again.

From that graph, Total EB2 receipts (excluding NIW) for FY 2009 were ~18000. Assuming a 100% approval rate and assuming all of the approved cases went on to file 485 that year, that would mean that 18000 visas for EB2 were issued that year based on the receipts. Now, there are 40332 EB2 visas available. Since I/C weren't current, let's assume that of the 40332, 5.6k I/C were allocated. That leaves 34732 EB2 left. Assuming 18000 usage, that leaves 34732 - 18000 = 16732 EB2 ROW available for spillover in that year.

Looking at your spillover numbers in the Data and Facts section, that was not the case. So it doesn't make sense.

Can someone please point out what I am missing in the calculation above? Being new to this, I am hoping that it's something obvious..As vizcard pointed out, you need to consider dependents. The 18k would become 36.9k. Also, because of processing times of both I-140 and I-485, there is a rollover effect.

The actual reported EB2 approvals for FY2009 in the DOS Visa Statistics were:

EB2 - FY2009

China -------- 3,045
India ------- 10,106
Mexico --------- 922
Philippines -- 1,850
ROW --------- 30,093

Total ------- 46,016

[operas]

Posted on murthy.com :

NewsFlash! March 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions: EB2 to Advance Again! Posted 24.Jan.2012
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Office has confirmed that EB2 priority dates will advance again in the March 2012 Visa Bulletin. The exact amount of forward movement is not yet known, as it largely depends upon case filing rates. The DOS projects that the EB2 cutoff dates will move by at least a few months in March 2012. The DOS estimates that an advance of as much as six months could occur. They stated that it is unlikely that the dates will advance by a full year. Updates on this important topic will be reported to MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers as reliable information becomes available.

[qesehmk]

If Murthy.com says so - I think people can take it to bank. Good luck EB2/3 ICs!


Posted on murthy.com :

NewsFlash! March 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions: EB2 to Advance Again! Posted 24.Jan.2012
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Office has confirmed that EB2 priority dates will advance again in the March 2012 Visa Bulletin. The exact amount of forward movement is not yet known, as it largely depends upon case filing rates. The DOS projects that the EB2 cutoff dates will move by at least a few months in March 2012. The DOS estimates that an advance of as much as six months could occur. They stated that it is unlikely that the dates will advance by a full year. Updates on this important topic will be reported to MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers as reliable information becomes available.

[qblogfan]

Maybe several months later Mr CO will bull shit again: after careful
examination and data collection, we find the total number of applications is
way bigger than our original estimation in January. Therefore, we have to
retrogress the EB2 category to 2007.



34% YTD usage of visas across all EB categories

According to trackitt approvals per month for all categories:

Oct 2011 - 309
Nov 2011 - 228
Dec 2011 - 245
Jan 2012 - 155 so far

I can see why Mr. CO expected visa usage to be more than 34%. He allocated ~8.5K to EB2IC in Oct 2011 so the visa usage should be more than normal and not less.

But this brings perplexing thoughts. As usual USCIS is a big black box that nobody can decipher and their numbers most unreliable. Has their processing been slowing down? If so, why? They had a huge pending inventory at the start of the fiscal year. They have built a considerable pipeline in the past few months with the EB2IC date movement by Mr. CO.

In all, it is great that they are slow as more folks get to file I-485 as the dates progress. My suspicion is that USCIS is playing a little game here. They will come with the news that "oh look what we found ..a large pile of files" some time in April/May. Turds!

[qesehmk]

qbf
You r right. That's going to happen at some point of time. DOS / USCIS are well coordinated here. As of now the policy is to intake as many as they can and they are in that mode. So they are making up stories to fit that strategy. Sooner or later this party is going to end and good (oops bad) old days of retrogression will be here. I know this is not going to go well with a lot of folks. But hey we are not the ones to play to the gallery. Our objective is to bring clarity ... not exuberance.


Maybe several months later Mr CO will bull shit again: after careful
examination and data collection, we find the total number of applications is
way bigger than our original estimation in January. Therefore, we have to
retrogress the EB2 category to 2007.

[vizcard]

This is old news now.

I dont think anyone has used the word "confirmed" up to now. Its been speculative. So the fact that Murthy has put out something like this is promising.

[qblogfan]

interpolation from CO's talk to AILA:

1. monthly visa number 45%/5=9%
2. quarterly visa number=9%*3=27%.
3. by 1/19/2012, he used 34% quota, in this month we have 4*9%-34%=2% quota left, maybe that's why the approval of EB2 is slowing down.

Looks like he is allocating exactly 27% quota now. Again this guy excutes immigration law based on his personal understanding. In the past several years he never excuted 27% rule. Now this is the first time to have 27% quarter quota after being pushed by several immigration organizations.

If CO had followed the 27% rule last year, the people with PD 2006.5-2006.8 should have received their GC 10 months earlier than their actual received date.

I saw a lot of discrepancy in the operation of this system. It's unfair to many folks!

[qblogfan]

Yes, you are exactly right. I think all these stories are made up because they need excuces to move PD forward.

I am glad many folks get a opportunity to get EAD/AP. I hope all of us can get out of this dark hole as soon as possible!


qbf
You r right. That's going to happen at some point of time. DOS / USCIS are well coordinated here. As of now the policy is to intake as many as they can and they are in that mode. So they are making up stories to fit that strategy. Sooner or later this party is going to end and good (oops bad) old days of retrogression will be here. I know this is not going to go well with a lot of folks. But hey we are not the ones to play to the gallery. Our objective is to bring clarity ... not exuberance.

[vizcard]

Maybe several months later Mr CO will bull shit again: after careful
examination and data collection, we find the total number of applications is
way bigger than our original estimation in January. Therefore, we have to
retrogress the EB2 category to 2007.


qbf
You r right. That's going to happen at some point of time. DOS / USCIS are well coordinated here. As of now the policy is to intake as many as they can and they are in that mode. So they are making up stories to fit that strategy. Sooner or later this party is going to end and good (oops bad) old days of retrogression will be here. I know this is not going to go well with a lot of folks. But hey we are not the ones to play to the gallery. Our objective is to bring clarity ... not exuberance.

I don't want to speak on behalf of everyone here but I think retrogression is a foregone conclusion here. Question is how far back will it go. Is it 2007? or Q1 2008 as some on here have suggested.

[kd2008]

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2012,0124-Musillo.shtm

Confirmation of forward movement.

Again, the six month number is an AILA prediction and not quoted words of Mr. CO.

[qesehmk]

Agree. Temporarily it can retro to where ever. Again that too will be discretionary. However the dates must bounce back to Q1 2008 around Sep 2012.


I don't want to speak on behalf of everyone here but I think retrogression is a foregone conclusion here. Question is how far back will it go. Is it 2007? or Q1 2008 as some on here have suggested.

[kd2008]

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/01/24/visa-bulletin-updates-and-predictions-by-charles-oppenheim-january-19-2012/

Another confirmation of forward movement in March 2012 bulletin. This talks about holding the dates for a few months before retrogressing them.

All of them say six months is possible.

[tendlya]

While filing for I-485/EAD, do we need to sign or write my name on back of photos?

[goforgreen]

Our lawyer asked us to write our names, it was in a specific way, dont remember if it was last name, first name or first name last name. We wrote our names as asked.


While filing for I-485/EAD, do we need to sign or write my name on back of photos?