EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[self.coach]

When will this start affecting EB2IC in the future?

EB3 seems to be losing people from the queue rapidly (comparatively speaking, compared to 2.8K/year pace). We would expect the DD to come down by about 250 per month. Now, lets compare the DD for Nov 2011 and Feb 2012 (3 months duration)
Year-----Difference
2003-----700
2004-----900
2005-----1200
2006-----1375
2007-----1600
2011-----1700

DD going down by 1700 in 3 months is quite significant. Effect of porting and demand destruction perhaps. Whatever may be the reason, it is good to see that happening. Whatever makes a dent in the 50K+ EB3 inventory is good news from a long term perspective.

[Spectator]

Where is the demand from the November filers? None of them have received GCs yet, and it is just surprising that in the last 2 months, they could not even convert a couple of thousand cases into demand? Maybe I am misinterpreting something.Demand is only seen by DOS from USCIS when they request a visa number in the process of approving the I-485.

If the PD is Current it is used immediately and Demand does not go up. Since the latest possible dates for EB2-IC are still Current, no new case approvals will impact the Demand Data figures.

A reduction in pre-adjudicated cases will lower the Demand data figure.

A Consular Processing case where the visa has been allocated, but the interview has not yet taken place will increase the Demand figure.

For new cases, it is going to take 4-6 months for USCIS to get to the stage of being able to approve them. Even for October filers that means the end of January at the earliest, except for a few outliers. Hoping for 4 month adjudication may well be optimistic.

With all that taken into account, the latest DD figures look exactly as I would expect.

They will only start to rise significantly after dates retrogress and USCIS ask for a visa which is not immediately available, or if visa numbers under QSP run out.

[imdeng]

There is no effect on EB2I except as some kind of indication of the volume of porting. If we assume that all the demand reduction except for 2002 PD is for porting, then that gives us an estimate of porting as 1000 (1700 - 700) for the three months. Extrapolated: 4000 porting for the full year. The actual number will be lower since a good number of post-2002PD demand reduction can be due to factors like parallel perms.

When will this start affecting EB2IC in the future?

[Desperate8]

Guys I am glad to see the movement at the same time I do feel surprised and confused on why would the dates move so fast.Is it going to be the fact that the Chinese nationals backlog is slimmer than Indian and so we are being showered by blessings ?
Also what is the whole funda of Receive Date ? Why is RD so important did it overrides the Priority date ?

Are we all going to be in limbo (sitting and waiting for EAD like 2007 fiasco) ,Does this also mean its a fiasco in parts :)
Any knowledge on the last PD that got approved the most recent one ?

[Jonty Rhodes]

Demand is low in the demand data as expected and predicted by Gurus here. I think demand data for next month and the month after will give us a clear picture. Also I-485 inventory once released will make it even clearer. In my opinion, this month's VB movement will be at CO's discretion and if the demand destruction is not huge than retrogression is imminent from next VB. If the demand destruction is moderate than the dates may stall for the rest of the FY2012 starting from next few months. Only if the demand destruction is of mammoth size, than the dates will continue to move forward. I hope the third scenario is true. :)

[sp2008]

Hello,
Can any one please direct me about walk-in centers for finger printing in NJ?
I know there is a center in Newark. But not sure if it is walk-in or it just allows scheduled appointments.

Thanks

[username]

Hello,
Can any one please direct me about walk-in centers for finger printing in NJ?
I know there is a center in Newark. But not sure if it is walk-in or it just allows scheduled appointments.

Thanks

Enter your ZipCode and will give you your nearest ASC
https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?action=offices.type&OfficeLocator.office_type=ASC

[veni001]

Guys I am glad to see the movement at the same time I do feel surprised and confused on why would the dates move so fast.Is it going to be the fact that the Chinese nationals backlog is slimmer than Indian and so we are being showered by blessings ?
Also what is the whole funda of Receive Date ? Why is RD so important did it overrides the Priority date ?

Are we all going to be in limbo (sitting and waiting for EAD like 2007 fiasco) ,Does this also mean its a fiasco in parts :)
Any knowledge on the last PD that got approved the most recent one ?

Desperate8,
USCIS will process applications based on RD.

Once the application(s) are documentarily qualified (processing complete) and the Cut-off dates are not retrogressed for that PD, then USCIS will request for Immigrant VISA from DOS.

Please refer to Spec's Post#3611 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=17338#post17338) for your other question.

[sp2008]

Enter your ZipCode and will give you your nearest ASC
https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?action=offices.type&OfficeLocator.office_type=ASC

Thank you for quick response. I saw that link. The info does not say if it is a walk-in or not. (none on the website say so). So I am waiting for ppl who might have recently did biometrics in NJ area via walk-in process.

[romanitaly]

You can walk in to any ASC. Once you walk in it depends on the mood of the ASC manager, if he/she is in a good mood you will get in, if not you may have to come back after you reschedule your appointment.

Most experiences I have seen have been positive over the holiday season.


Thank you for quick response. I saw that link. The info does not say if it is a walk-in or not. (none on the website say so). So I am waiting for ppl who might have recently did biometrics in NJ area via walk-in process.

[nishant2200]

Wov, call 2026631541 USA phone number

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/884522279/feb-cutover-dates-are-out

EB2 IC : 1 Jan 2010

I verified by calling this number. Is this phone number legit?

--------------
update, number seems to be legit!!

It is in the VB itself mentioned:
The Department of State also has available a recorded message with visa cut-off dates which can be heard at: (202) 663-1541. The recording is normally updated by the middle of each month with information on cut-off dates for the following month.

[rdsingh79]

Interesting excerpt from VB:-
Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

Congrats to everyone who became "Current" in this VB.

[nishant2200]

1. Heartfelt congratulations to all who got current

2. Do not miss applying ever but also Remember that always in the month you are current, around the 8th, you will get VB for next month, so you will know if you are still current in next month, or your current month is the only period you have to get in.

3. Marriage: Since the dates have moved fast, I would like to say a higher number of folks would be not married, so how to handle this, needs to be discussed with lawyer and personal plans needs to be designed out.

4. And from VB:
Employment Second:

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

This is something new: or USCIS processing increases. It indicates to me that a very clever usage of words, on one hand, he says level of filings is low, and on other hand he kind of indicates but we have got some good stuff and it may get ready soon.

[kd2008]

1. Heartfelt congratulations to all who got current

2. Do not miss applying ever but also Remember that always in the month you are current, around the 8th, you will get VB for next month, so you will know if you are still current in next month, or your current month is the only period you have to get in.

3. Marriage: Since the dates have moved fast, I would like to say a higher number of folks would be not married, so how to handle this, needs to be discussed with lawyer and personal plans needs to be designed out.

4. And from VB:
Employment Second:

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

This is something new: or USCIS processing increases. It indicates to me that a very clever usage of words, on one hand, he says level of filings is low, and on other hand he kind of indicates but we have got some good stuff and it may get ready soon.

Nishant, I think the word after what you bolded is equally important. Not only should the USCIS processing increase, but it should increase significantly

That is going to be the key. I am expecting CO will put off retrogression till he runs out of visas.

As to how much will the dates move forward from here? ..dunno and no body can guess either ...CO has been really generous ..God bless his heart!

[nishant2200]

Nishanth, I think the word after what you bolded is equally important. Not only should the USCIS processing increase, but it should increase significantly

That is going to be the key. I am expecting CO will put off retrogression till he runs out of visas.

As to how much will the dates move forward from here? ..dunno and no body can guess either ...CO has been really generous ..God bless his heart!

Kd, I agree with you. If the demand being offered by USCIS is not significant, if he has QSP, he can gobble up that demand.

[jackbrown_890]

Thanks sportsfan33


Honestly, I don't think the dates will retrogress in March. Think about it. After the incredible speed the last 2 months, they would require at least 2 months to *digest*. I believe retrogression would start realistically in May/June. At worst, the dates would stall.

If I were you, I would keep everything ready and do whatever there needs to be done to sending a single application and adding your wife later (you would have to wait to get your FP done and most likely postpone the marriage date in the worst case), but *not* send the application until the March dates are out.

Good luck, and congratulations on your marriage! It's going to start on the right foot...nothing is better than for the spouse to have her EAD on day 1 in the US.

EDIT: BTW, I need to correct myself. You won't be able to add your wife later unless the dates were current, so if they are retrogressed, only you will get your EAD and she has to wait until the dates are current. I think that's what my lawyer told me, I could be wrong...so check with Gurus and your lawyer.

[chagas]

Congrats everyone who became current today

[nishant2200]

My hands are literally shaking writing this - Q, Spec, Teddy, Nishant, Kanmani, SportsFan, and all of you (apologies if I missed - case of shaking hands) thank you very very much for you ideology. Stay firm, stay forcused, do good, spread good information, provide solace to those of us in limbo land.

Heartiest Congratulations all.

My spouse is still on B1 and my lawyer just informed me that AOS cannot be applied for him unless H4 COS happens :( no matter no matter - have reached here, will climb some more :):)

You are most welcome friend. I know how you feeling, I myself went thru it. When I first found out I was current on mumbai consulate website at night time, my hands were shaking and even voice trembling, I was moving around in the room frantically, and my wife was looking at me as to why I am so happy as well as tense.

[imviswa]

This is my first post in this forum, but I have been following all your posts for a very long time. I really appreciate all the analysis and stuff by the experts, it really keep me going...My PD became current as well..If the dates are going to retrogress next month, Will i still get my EAD and AP? Approximately, How long it will take for someone to receive them?

[Desperate8]

Guys happy for all the families, I know many would have been through hard times !!! May god bless all and let this happiness game continue.
I wish EB3 moves in the same fashion. One thing interesting to know is that I-485 can be filed by you with your recent paystubs , this is what my employer told me.They have had tons and tons of GC done in the past, I was thinking of our friends who would be thinking that they were at the hands of the employer, yes your I-140 should have been approved and not revoked then you are in good hands.
Hope this all ends well.

[GhostWriter]

WOW, congrats to everyone who became current, i also did (Nov-2009), can actually feel the current through my body :) . A very big thanks to everyone on this forum for making this journey easier and all the help in clarifying the process (special thanks to Q, spec, veni, teddy, nishant and all the gurus).
I was looking at the forum till 4:15 or so and then left work after everyone had reached the consensus that we will have to wait till next week for the bulletin and then i just checked the forum again at home and saw 5 pages of posts :)
Extremely happy, thanks everyone, wish others get current soon as well. I had not thought that it will happen so soon.
Another reason for posting this message is so that no on can say that enough congrats and thank you messages were not posted like last month !!

[imdeng]

Oh Boy!!! I am CURRENT!!!

I had given up on VB today and left for my evening badminton league - came back and just checked to see if there has been any further discussion of DD and Bam! I am numb right now.

Congratulations to all the 2009 PD folks. We are a lucky bunch - less than 3 years for EAD/AP filing. I hope the PD movement trend continues.

[qesehmk]

Friends
Many congrats to all those current. Wish you godspeed to ead AC21 and GC!!
Right now on tarmac .. In transit. Will write more once home tomorrow.
All the best!

[gomesnj]

Hi Everyone, Congrats to all who became current in today's bulletin

My PD is FEB 2010, so have to wait for the next month bulletin.
Have a question, I am in my OPT period and my cos to H1b is in process(regular). If I become current in next month bulletin, can I still go ahead and apply my I485 or do I need to wait for my H1B to be approved.
Experts who have any idea in my situation, please advice.

[sugada]

Unimaginable, its beyond calculations. Amazing! Nearly 4 year movement in just 8 months. Congrats to all.
I am in Feb 2011, and I really dont know what to expect.
Cheers to all.

[Desperate8]

imdeng - my hearty congrats to you and all those families waiting for this day - just 3 years of wait no buddy few including me have waited 8 years - well lets all pray for speedy movement of EB3 aswell , we should not forget our past and pain... I feel so bad for EB3 guys , I was current in last bulliten but still I didnot enjoy it to the core as I know what others would feel . It is ofcourse a time to rejoice but at the same time pray and try to help EB3 folks by all means (estimation etc).
I am not sure if this movement is good or we are locked for long, yes atleast we would get our EAD soon and will be able to travel to our home countries with least issues.
Its been over 4 years that I have visited my folks back in India - its time to pack short bags and leave !!!!! - Try to be first in the queue because moving forward everything is your Recieved Date a.k.a RD

[Desperate8]

oh well forgot to add , all gurus (q, veni , nishant, teddy , Kanmani, soggadu and others) thanks much god bless you all for everything , you had been a great supporter please continue to do so for anyone and everyone. Please keep posting any news you get on approvals.

Starting this year did you hear of any approvals ???? Do you guys think this June/ July./ Aug/ we would get any spillovers ? If so with your expertize can you lay down a matrix on when would one get their GC approximately. (GC for those who would become current)

Q- when is your tool public
?

[visagcinfo]

Congrats to this batch. This is amazing.

I guess it will take at least 2 months before they see the recent 485 filings become demand data, so retrogression in next two bulletin is unlikely. but, more forward movement in the next two bulletins.. is going to be at CO's discretion.

Wish EB2 becomes current and spillover starts going to EB3.

Oh yes.. need to make flight bookings fast before they are all full this summer season.


imdeng - my hearty congrats to you and all those families waiting for this day - just 3 years of wait no buddy few including me have waited 8 years - well lets all pray for speedy movement of EB3 aswell , we should not forget our past and pain... I feel so bad for EB3 guys , I was current in last bulliten but still I didnot enjoy it to the core as I know what others would feel . It is ofcourse a time to rejoice but at the same time pray and try to help EB3 folks by all means (estimation etc).
I am not sure if this movement is good or we are locked for long, yes atleast we would get our EAD soon and will be able to travel to our home countries with least issues.
Its been over 4 years that I have visited my folks back in India - its time to pack short bags and leave !!!!! - Try to be first in the queue because moving forward everything is your Recieved Date a.k.a RD

[cricfan]

Congrats to everyone who became current !!!

[vizcard]

This is brilliant. Getting to a point where Gurus may not need a calculation thread anymore. :)

[ragx08]

Congratulations to all the 2009 batch!!! 2012 was predicted to be a 'Doom's Day" year - but turning out to be a 'BOON" year for the EB2IC folk. Great way to start the new year!

[codesmith]

This is my first post in this forum, but I have been following all your posts for a very long time. I really appreciate all the analysis and stuff by the experts, it really keep me going...My PD became current as well..If the dates are going to retrogress next month, Will i still get my EAD and AP? Approximately, How long it will take for someone to receive them?

You should get your EAD and AP within 3-4 months after filling.

[qblogfan]

Hi, guys, finally my employer filed 485 for me and my wife. I already got 485 receipts. I noticed one problem. My priority date is correct, but my wife's priority date is Dec.29, 2011, which is the received date. Could I contact USCIS to correct this issue? I noticed some other guys also found the same issue. I wonder whether we should all contact USCIS to correct it.

[qblogfan]

By the way, congratulations to all the friends who got current in this VB! Just as what I said, we deserve an easier life after working for so many years in this country! The government should not choke these immigrants!


Hi, guys, finally my employer filed 485 for me and my wife. I already got 485 receipts. I noticed one problem. My priority date is correct, but my wife's priority date is Dec.29, 2011, which is the received date. Could I contact USCIS to correct this issue? I noticed some other guys also found the same issue. I wonder whether we should all contact USCIS to correct it.

[vizcard]

Hi, guys, finally my employer filed 485 for me and my wife. I already got 485 receipts. I noticed one problem. My priority date is correct, but my wife's priority date is Dec.29, 2011, which is the received date. Could I contact USCIS to correct this issue? I noticed some other guys also found the same issue. I wonder whether we should all contact USCIS to correct it.

You are fine. Since she's the dependent, the receipt date becomes her PD. no issues there.

[ontheedge]

Oh Boy!!! I am CURRENT!!!

I had given up on VB today and left for my evening badminton league - came back and just checked to see if there has been any further discussion of DD and Bam! I am numb right now.

Congratulations to all the 2009 PD folks. We are a lucky bunch - less than 3 years for EAD/AP filing. I hope the PD movement trend continues.

Many congratulations to you imdeng!!

[ontheedge]

Hi, guys, finally my employer filed 485 for me and my wife. I already got 485 receipts. I noticed one problem. My priority date is correct, but my wife's priority date is Dec.29, 2011, which is the received date. Could I contact USCIS to correct this issue? I noticed some other guys also found the same issue. I wonder whether we should all contact USCIS to correct it.

Qbf, glad to know everything worked out for you so far. PD for spouse would be the RD, so no issues. By the way, how do you feel about CO now?? ;)

[ontheedge]

The party's turning out to be an all out carnival!! Just saw the VB news and good lord! I wasnt this excited when I became current last month. Bless CO's heart....this also makes me hopeful that dates may just stall, or at worst, not retrogress beyond mid 2008.
Congrats Kanmani, imdeng, bieber, sportsfan and all you 09ers. Have a very good night and get ready to be poked :)

[nishant2200]

called no one picked up....kiska number hai yeh?

smuggybhai, must have been busy. Anyways by now, u know.

Just was dancing with daughter to Desi Boyz songs, heart is really happy. Freedom knocks on doorstep.

nikal padi! Its party time!

English thumke, dil ki rhythm pe
Maare jamm jamm ke, Desi Boyz
Sohne mohne Bannke, chhaati dole tann ke
Nach jamm jamm ke, desi boyz

[pdmay2008]

Congrats to every one who got current today. I know how you feel now as I had the same kind of feeling last month when I became current.

Hope CO keeps moving the dates further in upcoming bulletins to make all our EB2 community current soon. God Bless CO.. God Bless America!!!!

[smuggymba]

smuggybhai, must have been busy. Anyways by now, u know.

Just was dancing with daughter to Desi Boyz songs, heart is really happy. Freedom knocks on doorstep.

nikal padi! Its party time!

English thumke, dil ki rhythm pe
Maare jamm jamm ke, Desi Boyz
Sohne mohne Bannke, chhaati dole tann ke
Nach jamm jamm ke, desi boyz

enjoy karo dost. 3 months se bach gaya. Mine is 31st March, 2010.

Just thinking about all the delays caused by my company HR...they promised to file in mid 2009 which went onto 2009 end....finally was done in March 2010. It's hard to expedite in big companies, they take their own sweet time and don't really know the affect of delaying even by a month. Well it's life. Just signed a contract for a 415K home....hopefully should be currrent soon. Is it possible by the end of year.

[asankaran]

Hey mine is 18th March 2010. Hopefully next month we both make it. BTW congratulations on your new home. That's a bold decision!!

enjoy karo dost. 3 months se bach gaya. Mine is 31st March, 2010.

Just thinking about all the delays caused by my company HR...they promised to file in mid 2009 which went onto 2009 end....finally was done in March 2010. It's hard to expedite in big companies, they take their own sweet time and don't really know the affect of delaying even by a month. Well it's life. Just signed a contract for a 415K home....hopefully should be currrent soon. Is it possible by the end of year.

[smuggymba]

Hey mine is 18th March 2010. Hopefully next month we both make it. BTW congratulations on your new home. That's a bold decision!!

I doubt next month...2 years movement in 2 months is a big deal. Maybe sometime next year...still not bad if it's early next year...maybe Jan 2013.

[asankaran]

Time Span may look big. But those were the worst years of recession. I am pretty much sure 2009/10 wouldn't generate more than 8-9k of demand(even that is more) . USCIS will see real demand once they move beyond June 2010.

I doubt next month...2 years movement in 2 months is a big deal. Maybe sometime next year...still not bad if it's early next year...maybe Jan 2013.

[jackbrown_890]

Jackbrown

Congratulations on your marriage and PD current !

Thanks Kanmani...

[smuggymba]

Time Span may look big. But those were the worst years of recession. I am pretty much sure 2009/10 wouldn't generate more than 8-9k of demand(even that is more) . USCIS will see real demand once they move beyond June 2010.

let's wait for the experts to chime in. I personally hope, everyone gets current asap.

[rohan621]

Hi friends,
A hearty congratulations to all of those who are current. It is definitely a good feeling!

Have a unique question....not sure which thread to place it on....my wife is in India and has a valid H4 stamp on her passport. She did a change of status to H1 while in US and applied for H1 stamp in India. She received a 221g.

Question is if she withdraws her petition for H1, can the consulate cancel her H4 visa? Can she enter US on H4? I am presuming that entering on H4 will mean abandon of status for H1.

The reason for this is my priority date is current and I would her to be back in States rather than wait on her H1 stamp.

Thanks in advance!

[vizcard]

Language from the Visa Bulletin regarding this month's movement. Almost a Copy/Paste from the Jan bulletin.

Employment Second:

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

[qesehmk]

I think the reason the dates moved has 2 key reasons.

Reason 1

It is true that DOS isn't seeing enough demand. Majority of Pre-July-2007 cases are approved for EB2. Whatever remains is cases with some problems - major or minor. Then whatever was filed Oct onwards .... will not hit DOS until after at least 4 months i.e. January of 2012. That is the reason the dates did move until Feb bulletin since the movement for Feb bulletin is based on January Demand data.

So as soon as the Oct filed 485s will start hitting DOS, the movement is going to stop or worse get into reverse gear.

I am 100% confident that the reversal will come in 1 or max 2 months. i.e. Mar or April bulletin. Then the dates will retrogress to around Q1 2008 or even earlier. But on Sep 2012 the dates will be around Q1 2008.

Reason 2

However if CO had not given QSP then the dates didn't need to move until May 2012. and then he would have hit the proverbial cliff of Jul 2007. That's why he applied QSP in Q1. So the second reason is "INTENT" of building pipeline. Math is one thing. But there is intent to build pipeline now rather than hit the cliff and then be forced to build pipeline. But the way he is building pipeline is very wise. He most likely didn't make it current to avoid clobbering of system as well as avoid political backlash and criticism in this charged environment. However friends we should thank him for doing the right thing. He has moved it far enough to lessen pain for a lot of people as well as help the system assure steady supply of applications as well as do it within his bounds to avoid criticism.

ps. - I doubt if he will continue to apply QSP going forward. We will see.

[veni001]

Congrats 2009ers! I am current too. Happy. Happy.

I have 2 questions.

My husband works in different state. Can we do our medical exam in different states?

I applied for my passport renewal (with mother's last name correction) last week. Will a copy of passport enough for Medical exam?

Appreciate your responses.

Yes, as long as he/she is USCIS certified physician.

You need original passport for medicals.

[kd2008]

Q, you may have missed this as Nishant agreed with my interpretation of CO's words in the VB. I believe he will continue with QSP for sure:



1. Heartfelt congratulations to all who got current

2. Do not miss applying ever but also Remember that always in the month you are current, around the 8th, you will get VB for next month, so you will know if you are still current in next month, or your current month is the only period you have to get in.

3. Marriage: Since the dates have moved fast, I would like to say a higher number of folks would be not married, so how to handle this, needs to be discussed with lawyer and personal plans needs to be designed out.

4. And from VB:
Employment Second:

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

This is something new: or USCIS processing increases. It indicates to me that a very clever usage of words, on one hand, he says level of filings is low, and on other hand he kind of indicates but we have got some good stuff and it may get ready soon.

Nishant, I think the word after what you bolded is equally important. Not only should the USCIS processing increase, but it should increase significantly

That is going to be the key. I am expecting CO will put off retrogression till he runs out of visas.

As to how much will the dates move forward from here? ..dunno and no body can guess either ...CO has been really generous ..God bless his heart!

[qesehmk]

KD

QSP may continue. But any further movement can't happen beyond Mar bulletin. Then 485 cases will start hitting DOS pipeline.

p.s. - This assumes a 4 month processing time for 485 cases that are in good standing. I can imagine that since at least 40K cases may have hit the pipeline in Q1 of 2012FY, at least 10K will go through in first four month and that will be sufficient to cover any QSP.



Q, you may have missed this as Nishant agreed with my interpretation of CO's words in the VB. I believe he will continue with QSP for sure:

[nishant2200]

smuggy, you might just get in next month. Next VB is the last VB before USCIS starts sending in bigger numbers of demand for EB2 IC and CO might start thinking about his slow stop retro trump cards.


enjoy karo dost. 3 months se bach gaya. Mine is 31st March, 2010.

Just thinking about all the delays caused by my company HR...they promised to file in mid 2009 which went onto 2009 end....finally was done in March 2010. It's hard to expedite in big companies, they take their own sweet time and don't really know the affect of delaying even by a month. Well it's life. Just signed a contract for a 415K home....hopefully should be currrent soon. Is it possible by the end of year.

[nishant2200]

Just the fact that they accepted the application with the PD of current date, even though, that date is not current for a EB2 IC, shows that its fine and nothing to worry about, the derivative is just piggy backing on the main applicant.


First of all Congratulations!

Usually they leave PD blank for derivative application receipt notice. In any event as long as both of your applications are in the same packet no need to worry.

[MeraNoAayega]

Call me stupid but...

I for one don't think USCIS is going to process (adjuducate) the oct 2011 filings & request visas from DOS before aug/sep 2012.... So... CO will make the EB2 dates current and unused EB2(in addition to any unused EB1) visas (due to low demand) will trickle down to EB3 in aug/sep 2012....

Good Luck EB3...

[veni001]

Call me stupid but...

I for one don't think USCIS is going to process (adjuducate) the oct 2011 filings & request visas from DOS before aug/sep 2012.... So... CO will make the EB2 dates current and unused EB2(in addition to any unused EB1) visas (due to low demand) will trickle down to EB3 in aug/sep 2012....

Good Luck EB3...

MeraNoAayega,

Irrespective of spillover trickling down to EB3, I don't think CO will (or need to) wait until Aug/Sept 2012, to make Eb2IC "current" (if he already chose to)

More or less EB2IC is close to "current" now, which will definitely benefit EB3 community as long as one have an opportunity to port/upgrade.

[qblogfan]

Q, very good analysis!

I want to add one reason: I heard the government stopped the approval of prevailing wage application submitted after September 2011. They are still processing the PW of September 2011. I think maybe this caused a low demand of ROW EB2. Maybe this was intentional.



I think the reason the dates moved has 2 key reasons.

Reason 1

It is true that DOS isn't seeing enough demand. Majority of Pre-July-2007 cases are approved for EB2. Whatever remains is cases with some problems - major or minor. Then whatever was filed Oct onwards .... will not hit DOS until after at least 4 months i.e. January of 2012. That is the reason the dates did move until Feb bulletin since the movement for Feb bulletin is based on January Demand data.

So as soon as the Oct filed 485s will start hitting DOS, the movement is going to stop or worse get into reverse gear.

I am 100% confident that the reversal will come in 1 or max 2 months. i.e. Mar or April bulletin. Then the dates will retrogress to around Q1 2008 or even earlier. But on Sep 2012 the dates will be around Q1 2008.

Reason 2

However if CO had not given QSP then the dates didn't need to move until May 2012. and then he would have hit the proverbial cliff of Jul 2007. That's why he applied QSP in Q1. So the second reason is "INTENT" of building pipeline. Math is one thing. But there is intent to build pipeline now rather than hit the cliff and then be forced to build pipeline. But the way he is building pipeline is very wise. He most likely didn't make it current to avoid clobbering of system as well as avoid political backlash and criticism in this charged environment. However friends we should thank him for doing the right thing. He has moved it far enough to lessen pain for a lot of people as well as help the system assure steady supply of applications as well as do it within his bounds to avoid criticism.

ps. - I doubt if he will continue to apply QSP going forward. We will see.

[veni001]

Q, you may have missed this as Nishant agreed with my interpretation of CO's words in the VB. I believe he will continue with QSP for sure:


KD

QSP may continue. But any further movement can't happen beyond Mar bulletin. Then 485 cases will start hitting DOS pipeline.

p.s. - This assumes a 4 month processing time for 485 cases that are in good standing. I can imagine that since at least 40K cases may have hit the pipeline in Q1 of 2012FY, at least 10K will go through in first four month and that will be sufficient to cover any QSP.

Nishant;KD2008; Q;

IMHO, CO can (may/will) continue implementing QSP so long as documentarily qualified EB1& EB2ROW-M-P applications are less than the total available VISA numbers(27%) for that quarter for both categories!

[Feb262009]

Thank you Veni001.

Also Thank you ThatIsAll and Vizcard for your responses. I have asked the same questions to my attorney. They will answer only on Monday. Your responses are quick and helps me.

I hope everyone get current soon including our EB3 friends.


Yes, as long as he/she is USCIS certified physician.

You need original passport for medicals.

[veni001]

Veni, I understand that. But documentarily qualified for India has to be 300 per month for EB2I ...and that's enough to stop any further dates progress.

In fact he had not applied QSP, there was absolutely no need to move the dates until May-Jun 2012. Will EB2I produce 300 documentarily qualified in January so that the Mar bulletin that comes out in Feb doesn't need to show dates progress? May be? Will there be 300 EB2I DQ's in Feb? You betcha! Of course but the dates movement is discretionary. So CO can do whatever. IMHO ... April bulletin shouldnt show any movement. If anything it should show retrogression.

Q,

EB2IC FY2012 quota has been used long time back, so if CO want to stop/retro EB2IC forward movement he can do that at any time.

I agree with your statement EB2IC cut-off date movement is discretionary at this point, irrespective of 300 DQ's availability per month(for EB2IC).

[qesehmk]

Veni - I don't necessarily look at it that way. What has been used is Q1 quota + Q1 QSP.

Q2 onwards quota is still available for EB2IC. That's how spillover works.

So CO can say ... in January I received more than 300 EB2IC and so I am going to retro in March. But of course .... we all agree that he will use his discretion.

p.s. - In fact it is quite likely that Dec 2011 saw more than 300 EB2IC and yet CO moved the dates for Feb bulletin.


Q,
EB2IC FY2012 quota has been used long time back, so if CO want to stop/retro EB2IC forward movement he can do that at any time.

[vp5856]

Q and Veni,

Can you elaborate for mortals like me? :) All I could understand is, QSP may not be applied, right?


Veni - I don't necessarily look at it that way. What has been used is Q1 quota + Q1 QSP.

Q2 onwards quota is still available for EB2IC. That's how spillover works.

So CO can say ... in January I received more than 300 EB2IC and so I am going to retro in March. But of course .... we all agree that he will use his discretion.

p.s. - In fact it is quite likely that Dec 2011 saw more than 300 EB2IC and yet CO moved the dates for Feb bulletin.

[kd2008]

Veni - I don't necessarily look at it that way. What has been used is Q1 quota + Q1 QSP.

Q2 onwards quota is still available for EB2IC. That's how spillover works.

So CO can say ... in January I received more than 300 EB2IC and so I am going to retro in March. But of course .... we all agree that he will use his discretion.

p.s. - In fact it is quite likely that Dec 2011 saw more than 300 EB2IC and yet CO moved the dates for Feb bulletin.

Sorry but what you say does not make sense to me. CO won't retrogress until USCIS processing increases significantly as VB comments. The implied meaning is that the demand is more than Q2 quota + atleast Q1 QSP or some estimate of Q2 QSP. If anything, CO tends to follow same logic unless USCIS changes the ground rules completely with a large visa ask of more than 10k or so. This is unlikely to happen in March or April. June maybe so.

[veni001]

Veni - I don't necessarily look at it that way. What has been used is Q1 quota + Q1 QSP.

Q2 onwards quota is still available for EB2IC. That's how spillover works.

So CO can say ... in January I received more than 300 EB2IC and so I am going to retro in March. But of course .... we all agree that he will use his discretion.

p.s. - In fact it is quite likely that Dec 2011 saw more than 300 EB2IC and yet CO moved the dates for Feb bulletin.

Q,
Assuming that CO is going by QSP rule, CO should have at least stalled the cutoff dates.

Looking at OCT'11 inventory EB2IC got ~12K DQ's and EB1+EB2ROWMP got another ~25K. Based on 27% limit, Q1 allocation should be ~22.5K (EB1+EB2+EB5)

We know that 10 - 12K is issued to EB2IC in Q1 (not counting porting), which means only 10-12K is issued to EB1+EB2ROWMP?

If the above is true and if the processing times improve (KD's point) then there may not be any QSP left in Q2, assuming porting will consume EB2I quarterly allocation.

Bottom line, we all agree that CO is using his discretion to build the pipe line.


Q and Veni,

Can you elaborate for mortals like me? :) All I could understand is, QSP may not be applied, right?

vp5856,
Please see my response above.


Sorry but what you say does not make sense to me. CO won't retrogress until USCIS processing increases significantly as VB comments. The implied meaning is that the demand is more than Q2 quota + atleast Q1 QSP or some estimate of Q2 QSP. If anything, CO tends to follow same logic unless USCIS changes the ground rules completely with a large visa ask of more than 10k or so. This is unlikely to happen in March or April. June maybe so.

Kd,
It looks to me at-least NSC is doing better than TSC. Processing times are not updated since November so we don't know the current situation.

USCIS may not have put focus on EB2IC new filings in Q1 to keep VISA requests to DOS at the minimum, to allow further movement of cut-off dates?

[nishant2200]

There are 8 now in trackitt. 4 from Nebraska and 4 from Texas service centers.

It began around December ending and is continued through Jan first week.

[veni001]

There are 8 now in trackitt. 4 from Nebraska and 4 from Texas service centers.

It began around December ending and is continued through Jan first week.

Nishant,
That's a positive sign, even though TSC processing is slower than NSC.

[qblogfan]

Guys, I saw four approvals on MITBBS and these guys submitted in Oct. It looks like the new cases are becoming demand now.

I believe a large portion of the Oct. cases are converting to demand in this month. Also a huge number of new cases will hit USCIS really hard in this January because 3/15/2008-1/1/2009 guys will submit 485 in this month and the number may range from 20k-25k I believe. I think it's like Mr.CO may slow down or stop in the next VB based on these new observations.


There are 8 now in trackitt. 4 from Nebraska and 4 from Texas service centers.

It began around December ending and is continued through Jan first week.

[gkjppp]

Spec/Veni/Qesehmk/Nishant/Kanmani,

Whats your predictions/Calculations on next Visabulletin(mar'2012). Does it move atleast 3 more months? I am sure, atleast 50K+ Visa numbers required to clear current filings i.e till Dec 31 2009. Chances are high, next month dates will not move or doesn't retro, starting May/Jun dates may retrogress to Mar to Jun 2008. if that is the case, approx when will be next EB2I movement happens?I mean Jan 2010 and above.

Below text is from Feb'12 Visa bulletin

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

Does this means, dates will move further atleast 3 to 6 months in the next bulletin? or is it going to be based on next months Demand Data?

[Spectator]

This is the most informative blog I have seen in recently.

Anybody! I have a query that is troubling me
I have two PD's one for NIW from Aug 2009 (current now) where I will have to work in underserved area for approx 3 more years if I apply for I 485(AOS) and will get GC only after 3 more years. The other PD is May 2010 which is after PERM (not current- may be current in next VB who knows!).

Definitely I need I485 approved but if next months VB shows my May 2010 PD current I would prefer to have that go for my I485 where I am not bound to 3 more years of underserved area service.

Here the question would be 1.Does PD from Aug 2009 be applied towards I 485 application for I-140 with PD May 2010?
2. If not then how safe is it wait till next months VB arrives for filing I-485 for Aug 2009 PD?username1,

I must admit to being slightly confused by what you are trying to achieve. That may be due to my lack of understanding.

I would assume that you have a Section 212(e) 2 year HRR on your J-1.


Change of Status and Waivers of Requirement - If the exchange visitor is subject to the two-year home-country physical presence (foreign residence) requirement, he or she cannot change his/her status to that of H, L, K, or immigrant lawful permanent resident (LPR) until he or she has returned to his/her home country for at least two-years or received a waiver of that requirement. Such waivers may be requested and if approved, obtained under these five separate bases:

No Objection Statement;
Exceptional Hardship;
Persecution;
Conrad Program, or
Interested Government Agency

I believe serving in an under-served area for 3 years is a waiver under the Conrad Program.

So the problem is not whether it is an EB2 or EB2-NIW, it is the 212(e) 2 Year HRR.

Whether you adjust status under EB2 or EB2-NIW, you still need to either serve the 2 Year HRR, serve the Conrad Program Waiver or obtain a waiver of some other sort for the 2 Year HRR.

In order to adjust and not fulfil the 3 years in an under-served area, you would need to get another Waiver that was not under the Conrad Program.

Have I missed something?

[jackbrown_890]

Hi,

My priority date is 03-25-2009 and I am current in latest VB. The biggest question is "Shall I apply or not", coz I am planning to get married in Dec 2012 to a girl who is in India right now. I am in biggest confusion state whether I shall wait till Dec 2012 and apply for GC or apply now and add my fiance information later? Do you guys think will I be getting my GC by end of 2012 if I apply now? plz comment.

Thanks!

Sorry to hear about ur situation..I am also in similar situation,,but little better,,
I am getting married in feb. and my PD is 6 months after urs..(sept. 09)
for me,,i can't move my wedding since it is only in little over a month,and i don't think i m gonna get approval in 2 months,,

if u really want to apply right now - 1 suggestion for u would be - send ur application but if you can move ur wedding date,,may be summer or before if possible.

december 2012 is too far and hard to guess what will happen by thn.. there are few uncertainties like 3012 can change the whole game or any administrative fix can change plus demand destruction..etc..
so i would say if u can move ur wedding dates early,,it would be little safe 4 u.. think about it for few days talk to ur future wife/family,,etc..
also talk 2 u lawyer..

[nishant2200]

gkjppp, this is my current take on this, and obviously things change day to day if new data reports come in.

- If there is no demand data released next month, or the demand data continues showing very low numbers (in the hundreds, not thousands), then we can again see a further move. The length of the move is again depending on the discretion of the agencies. By that time, they would have obtained filings all PWMB of 2007 as they filed in October, November, and new filings of Nov, Dec and January.
- I personally feel CO is just taking advantage of technicality of showing low demand data and advancing dates. So even if the above filings are a lot, unless they have turned into demand which he is unable to satisfy using QSP, he is going to move dates.
- Sooner or later, USCIS processing will catch up, and the filings will start translating into chunks of demand which CO might not be comfortable satisfying through QSP. If that demand accumulation is in the hundreds, he will stop dates, and once that demand comes into the thousands, he will retrogress.
- I believe that the visa numerical control program is automatic, but CO can override configuration. For example, in normal operation, if a date is current, and a visa number is requested, it will be granted and it won't appear in demand data. But suppose after the 20th of the month, CO sees some data points, and puts in a switch to block assigning visa numbers for EB2I, then the visa number request would be directed to pending file, and in next month, it would show up in demand data.
- I think actual GC issuance will clear 2007 assuming demand destruction is reality, around 22-24k SO, and Q1 2008 somewhere dates will stick at end of FY.


Spec/Veni/Qesehmk/Nishant/Kanmani,

Whats your predictions/Calculations on next Visabulletin(mar'2012). Does it move atleast 3 more months? I am sure, atleast 50K+ Visa numbers required to clear current filings i.e till Dec 31 2009. Chances are high, next month dates will not move or doesn't retro, starting May/Jun dates may retrogress to Mar to Jun 2008. if that is the case, approx when will be next EB2I movement happens?I mean Jan 2010 and above.

Below text is from Feb'12 Visa bulletin

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

Does this means, dates will move further atleast 3 to 6 months in the next bulletin? or is it going to be based on next months Demand Data?

[essenel]

Why has the prediction thread been hijacked for 485 filing questions?? Can we create a separate thread in the other Live Q&A section for that if it doesn't already exist? :)

Under: Forum > Live Q&A & Discussion (Labor 140 485 H1 etc) > 485 & CP Related Topics

Prepare to file I485
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?41-Prepare-to-file-I485

I-693 - Medical Exam and Vaccinations when applying for Green Card (I-485)
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?222-I-693-Medical-Exam-and-Vaccinations-when-applying-for-Green-Card-%28I-485%29

Birth Certificate Related
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?163-Birth-Certificate-Related

Post 485-Filing:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?238-Post-485-Filing

[nishant2200]

http://www.jackson-hertogs.com/news/2012/20120106.shtml

these are good attorneys, interesting to read their post on feb bulletin. their website contains useful information.

"From a practical perspective, persons in the India and China EB2 categories who will become "current" in February 2012 should do their best to ensure that they file their Adjustment of Status (AOS) applications during that month. Until the March Bulletin is issued we will not know if there will be retrogression or continued advancement of dates. Please note that there is no advantage to filing an AOS application on the first date of the month. There is no need to rush to file as early as possible in February, just ensure that the AOS application is received by USCIS in February. "

[kd2008]

I spoke with my attorney about the date movement and she said except for July 2007 fiasco, VB movements are by default on the conservative side. Retrogression is not something they want to do ever. But USCIS is extremely inconsistent and, the quality of their data and consistency of processing is always questionable. So CO does take that factor into account.

I also asked her about demand destruction. She said abandoning of GC process is extremely rare - only a couple of cases in last 4 years. Starting over GC process with new employer and recapturing old PD is quite common and more so in 2008/2009 cases. She said majority of folks stick with single PERM and same employer till they get their GC.

Hope this helps.

[vizcard]

Hi,

My priority date is 03-25-2009 and I am current in latest VB. The biggest question is "Shall I apply or not", coz I am planning to get married in Dec 2012 to a girl who is in India right now. I am in biggest confusion state whether I shall wait till Dec 2012 and apply for GC or apply now and add my fiance information later? Do you guys think will I be getting my GC by end of 2012 if I apply now? plz comment.

Thanks!

You will NOT get your GC by Dec 2012. Moreover, there will be retrogression and then movement later. If you do decide to pass now, it should be current again some time in 2013. So its up to you at this point. I'd say if you are not looking to change jobs or are in no danger of losing your job, you could wait till 2013 (or later) to file.

[leo07]

I might sound like Aristotle, for what I have gone through in life...but
My 2 cents: Don't speculate...get the first thing done first. What ever comes your way first...GC/Marriage.


Hi,

My priority date is 03-25-2009 and I am current in latest VB. The biggest question is "Shall I apply or not", coz I am planning to get married in Dec 2012 to a girl who is in India right now. I am in biggest confusion state whether I shall wait till Dec 2012 and apply for GC or apply now and add my fiance information later? Do you guys think will I be getting my GC by end of 2012 if I apply now? plz comment.

Thanks!

[GhostWriter]

Do we need to submit the original affidavit or a copy of the affidavit. My lawyer asked for copies in general, but i am confused about the affidavit. The only reason to create the affidavit was for I-485. What is everyone submitting.


Per my attorney value of stamp paper doesn't matter any value is okay. Just get it notarized (Attested).

[leo07]

IMHO, CP for 2009 filers is a gamble. Again, that's my opinion. If I were you, I'd rather have the EAD/AP in my pocket than wait for CP.

Gurus,

My PD is 06/2011 so this may not apply for me anytime soon but the recent movement has been unprecedented and I had a question related to CP.

I know it is easy to go from CP to AOS without any additional documentation. Therefore, I had applied as CP when I filed I-140. Moreover, it was general consensus that you generally get Fee Notice and FP notice even before your dates are current (i.e. 6 months before your dates are current). So presumably as soon as the dates got current you would be called for an interview and would get GC faster than AOS.

I do not think any Fee Notices were sent for people in 2nd half of 2009 since the recent movement caught everyone by surprise (including State Dept). What is option for people on CP? Should they continue with CP knowing fully well the dates might retrogress and they may never get an interview? Or should they go for AoS? If the PD is current when is a visa number allocated? Is it when the Fee Notice is sent or at some later stage?

[leo07]

Can you please ask the question again with context? I'm sorry, I could not understand what this is for.

Do we need to submit the original affidavit or a copy of the affidavit. My lawyer asked for copies in general, but i am confused about the affidavit. The only reason to create the affidavit was for I-485. What is everyone submitting.

[medatom]

I am extremely sorry for hijacking the thread. But this one keeps me awake at night.
I was born at home so no birth certificates. My mother always used two different names for herself. So when i applied for passport i have name A listed as mother's name. However, i asked my father to get a birth certificate for me, when inquired, the municipal will only issue a birth certificate with name B as it's listed in the ration card right now.
What should i do?. Get a birth certificate with name B listed as mother and get an affidavit from my parents as well.
Thanks a lot.

[leo07]

Dude, there's nothing sorry to feel here :). He is getting married + getting GC and you are feeling sorry for him?? :) can you elaborate your thoughts? LOL

Play it safe, apply for GC and get married when the time comes. Don't try to interlink these two positive events and over-stress yourselves. There are million ways to solve the GC issue.


Sorry to hear about ur situation..I am also in similar situation,,but little better,,
I am getting married in feb. and my PD is 6 months after urs..(sept. 09)
for me,,i can't move my wedding since it is only in little over a month,and i don't think i m gonna get approval in 2 months,,

if u really want to apply right now - 1 suggestion for u would be - if you can move ur wedding date,,may be summer or before if possible.

december 2012 is too far and hard to guess what will happen by thn.. there are few uncertainties like 3012 can change the whole game or any administrative fix can change plus demand destruction..etc..
so i would say if u can move ur wedding dates early,,it would be little safe 4 u.. think about it for few days talk to ur future wife/family,,etc..
also talk 2 u lawyer..

[gkjppp]

gkjppp, this is my current take on this, and obviously things change day to day if new data reports come in.

- If there is no demand data released next month, or the demand data continues showing very low numbers (in the hundreds, not thousands), then we can again see a further move. The length of the move is again depending on the discretion of the agencies. By that time, they would have obtained filings all PWMB of 2007 as they filed in October, November, and new filings of Nov, Dec and January.
- I personally feel CO is just taking advantage of technicality of showing low demand data and advancing dates. So even if the above filings are a lot, unless they have turned into demand which he is unable to satisfy using QSP, he is going to move dates.
- Sooner or later, USCIS processing will catch up, and the filings will start translating into chunks of demand which CO might not be comfortable satisfying through QSP. If that demand accumulation is in the hundreds, he will stop dates, and once that demand comes into the thousands, he will retrogress.
- I believe that the visa numerical control program is automatic, but CO can override configuration. For example, in normal operation, if a date is current, and a visa number is requested, it will be granted and it won't appear in demand data. But suppose after the 20th of the month, CO sees some data points, and puts in a switch to block assigning visa numbers for EB2I, then the visa number request would be directed to pending file, and in next month, it would show up in demand data.
- I think actual GC issuance will clear 2007 assuming demand destruction is reality, around 22-24k SO, and Q1 2008 somewhere dates will stick at end of FY.

Nishant, thanks for quick reply.Can you elobarate on your last lines

I think actual GC issuance will clear 2007 assuming demand destruction is reality, around 22-24k SO, and Q1 2008 somewhere dates will stick at end of FY.

if VB retrogress and stalls at Mar/Jun 2008, when we are expecting next movement, which moves into 2010?as we are aware, CO already build pipeline for next 2 years will it be somewhere in 2013 Jan or 2013 Oct or 2014?

[jackbrown_890]

Honestly, I don't think the dates will retrogress in March. Think about it. After the incredible speed the last 2 months, they would require at least 2 months to *digest*. I believe retrogression would start realistically in May/June. At worst, the dates would stall.

If I were you, I would keep everything ready and do whatever there needs to be done to sending a single application and adding your wife later (you would have to wait to get your FP done and most likely postpone the marriage date in the worst case), but *not* send the application until the March dates are out.

Good luck, and congratulations on your marriage! It's going to start on the right foot...nothing is better than for the spouse to have her EAD on day 1 in the US.

EDIT: BTW, I need to correct myself. You won't be able to add your wife later unless the dates were current, so if they are retrogressed, only you will get your EAD and she has to wait until the dates are current. I think that's what my lawyer told me, I could be wrong...so check with Gurus and your lawyer.

I think I am going to take the risk of not sending my application in February, in hope that dates will not retrogress even in April VB. I can't change my wedding plans for this now. (everything has been planned/booked, invitations have been sent out..etc...) (I ll be married and back by March first week) If I apply in Feb and if dates do retrogress in March VB and I can't apply for my (future) wife's AOS, i can't use my EAD because doing so will put her H4 out of status. So if only I can apply for AOS, and she can't,, we will not be able to take advantage of EAD/AP.
Correct me if i am wrong.

[ChampU]

Any ballpark estimate about the demand generated by the movement of dates to Jan 2010?

[gkjppp]

http://www.jackson-hertogs.com/news/2012/20120106.shtml

these are good attorneys, interesting to read their post on feb bulletin. their website contains useful information.

"From a practical perspective, persons in the India and China EB2 categories who will become "current" in February 2012 should do their best to ensure that they file their Adjustment of Status (AOS) applications during that month. Until the March Bulletin is issued we will not know if there will be retrogression or continued advancement of dates. Please note that there is no advantage to filing an AOS application on the first date of the month. There is no need to rush to file as early as possible in February, just ensure that the AOS application is received by USCIS in February. "

hope most of them file on time, ie before feb 29th.I think retro will not be in March, they may halt VB in Mar and may goes to retrogression in or after apr.

[qblogfan]

I would suggest you send in your application as early as possible.

It's unlikely you will get your GC before December 2012. There are around 30k people in front of you and I doubt you can get GC before 12/2012.

There are too many risk factors if you delay your 485 submission. For example, what if your company lay you off before your marriage? No job means game over. No income, no H1B, no GC, wife can't come here, etc.........

Always grab the opportunity first, then consider next steps..........


Hi,

My priority date is 03-25-2009 and I am current in latest VB. The biggest question is "Shall I apply or not", coz I am planning to get married in Dec 2012 to a girl who is in India right now. I am in biggest confusion state whether I shall wait till Dec 2012 and apply for GC or apply now and add my fiance information later? Do you guys think will I be getting my GC by end of 2012 if I apply now? plz comment.

Thanks!

[funnysummer2005]

Hi Guys- had a couple of questions. Hope someone can answer these pls. I tried to look on the blog but didn't find an answer.

1) For filing AOS form, i see that they want a copy of the I-20. I have been out of school for over 9 years and no way i have a copy of the I-20 that I had when i was in college. Anyone have similar issue? what is the way around this? pls advise.

2) I-94 form- we only need to send a copy of the most recent I-94 card right? again, we as get a new i-94 card everytime we enter the country and give it back everytime we leave, i didn't make copies of every i-94 i have ever got. Any thoughts?

Thanks a lot.

[jackbrown_890]

I would suggest you send in your application as early as possible.

It's unlikely you will get your GC before December 2012. There are around 30k people in front of you and I doubt you can get GC before 12/2012.

There are too many risk factors if you delay your 485 submission. For example, what if your company lay you off before your marriage? No job means game over. No income, no H1B, no GC, wife can't come here, etc.........

Always grab the opportunity first, then consider next steps..........

qblogfan,
You are right - for him it makes sense to send application now,, since December is too far. any thing can happen. but still hard choice, because he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...
and if he wants his wife to be here after marriage, he will be stuck on H1 like me till dates become current for him again since his wife will be on H4 until he can file for her AOS. so no EAD benefits

again correct me if i wrong..."i actually want someone to prove me wrong on not being able use EAD because i am in the same situation" lol

[vishnu]

Just because you get an EAD/AP does not meet you lose your H status..you can continue on H status and wife can come on H4...

[sdesh005]

Everyone,

I met with my lawyer yesterday again. Sorry, this time, didn't get much time to talk about the EB2 movement in depth. I wanted to find out if he knows anything about the future movements of EB2.

- He made no comment on HR 3012 and reiterated the movement is completely independent of that.
- He reiterated that the movement is intended to dish out as many EADs as possible as well as revenue generation for the USCIS in these *tough times*. He did not add any value to my questions about demand destruction, and CO's note about filings being too low.

- He said he "thinks" the movement will "slow down but continue" in March and come to a halt in April. He did not say whether there will be any retrogression, but he told me he will try to "actively seek this information out" because apparently there are some people in our company posted oversees who cannot come and apply for AoS right away.

I have to meet him before I pack my bags and leave one more time, and I believe I will have something more to add at that point. For now, this is what I have.

Good luck to 2010 filers.
Good to know he thinks the dates will move and/or not retrogress for another month. I hope he can give you some more valuable insights into this in the coming days after he shoots some hoops with CO and talk about VB and date movement! ;)

[EB2-03252009]

Thanks for the replies.

I wont be using EAD or AP as I have H1B visa stamping till Sept 2013. and I dont want to use EAD till I get my GC.


qblogfan,
You are right - for him it makes sense to send application now,, since December is too far. any thing can happen. but still hard choice, because he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...
and if he wants his wife to be here after marriage, he will be stuck on H1 like me till dates become current for him again since his wife will be on H4 until he can file for her AOS. so no EAD benefits

again correct me if i wrong..."i actually want someone to prove me wrong on not being able use EAD because i am in the same situation" lol

[leo07]

"... he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...."

This is NOT entirely true. You SHOULD not leave your primary H1B job for EAD. The case that you mentioned will arise only if the applicant leaves his H1B job for a EAD job.

At this juncture, I'd like to reiterate to everyone that LEAVING your H1b for EAD is not a smart move. Don't make that decision in haste before getting your GC in hand. You can use your EAD for a second job, if you will.



qblogfan,
You are right - for him it makes sense to send application now,, since December is too far. any thing can happen. but still hard choice, because he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...
and if he wants his wife to be here after marriage, he will be stuck on H1 like me till dates become current for him again since his wife will be on H4 until he can file for her AOS. so no EAD benefits

again correct me if i wrong..."i actually want someone to prove me wrong on not being able use EAD because i am in the same situation" lol

[jackbrown_890]

Just because you get an EAD/AP does not meet you lose your H status..you can continue on H status and wife can come on H4...

Sorry, I meant, if you USE EAD!!!

[jackbrown_890]

"... he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...."

This is NOT entirely true. You SHOULD not leave your primary H1B job for EAD. The case that you mentioned will arise only if the applicant leaves his H1B job for a EAD job.

At this juncture, I'd like to reiterate to everyone that LEAVING your H1b for EAD is not a smart move. Don't make that decision in haste before getting your GC in hand. You can use your EAD for a second job, if you will.

I agree, you should not be leaving ur h1 for no reason,,.but i was talking about if situation arises and if i have to leave my job or loose my job,, can I change jobs using AC21 if i am using EAD (may b after 180 days)? or if not and if i loose my H1 job before AOS approval, do I have to transfer H1 and start GC process from the beginning?

[geterdone]

I think EAD can be used for any employer. So what is the risk of using EAD when you have H-1? Please explain



"... he can't use his EAD because as soon as he uses his EAD his H1 is gone and his wife can't join him on H4 in December until dates become current for him again..and she can do CP...."

This is NOT entirely true. You SHOULD not leave your primary H1B job for EAD. The case that you mentioned will arise only if the applicant leaves his H1B job for a EAD job.

At this juncture, I'd like to reiterate to everyone that LEAVING your H1b for EAD is not a smart move. Don't make that decision in haste before getting your GC in hand. You can use your EAD for a second job, if you will.

[mesan123]

Hi GURU's

what do you think the moment will be in march & april bulletion's...i know we cant calculate much as not much data is available, as of the this moment is pretty much enough for atleast 2- 3 years of visa numbers...

in ron's forum he mentioned

'Based on the information contained in Part D, as well as the announced demand data, it appears that the USCIS is not doing a very good job of processing files to completion. If this continues (and it likely will), then it is entirely possible that India and China EB2 could become current or near-current by May.'

'The Visa Office uses all known demand through about the 25th of the previous month. They take into account NVC cases that are deemed "documentarily qualified" as well as known USCIS demand for visas. They look at the available supply of visas for the upcoming month, apply the known demand to it, and try to calculate how many applicants can be given visas without exceeding the permissible supply. '

just adding this for discussion and perspective from you guys..... :)

[qblogfan]

Guys, I saw an approval on MITBBS and he/she submitted 485 in November. It looks like USCIS is not only approving Oct. cases, but also approving Nov. cases.

NSC-RD2011/10/20 -PD2007/5/31- i485Approved at 2011/12/24

[suninphx]

Guys, I saw an approval on MITBBS and he/she submitted 485 in November. It looks like USCIS is not only approving Oct. cases, but also approving Nov. cases.

NSC-RD2011/10/20 -PD2007/5/31- i485Approved at 2011/12/24

RD is 20th Oct.- so isn't he/she OCt filer than November?

[vishnu]

So more approvals flowing in means there is less likelihood that CO moves dates aggresively? Bummer! My PD is Sep 2010.

[qblogfan]

I am sorry. It was an October case, not November Case.

It looks like they are approving October cases right now. Maybe November cases will be approved later this month or next month.


RD is 20th Oct.- so isn't he/she OCt filer than November?

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi GURU's

what do you think the moment will be in march & april bulletion's...i know we cant calculate much as not much data is available, as of the this moment is pretty much enough for atleast 2- 3 years of visa numbers...

in ron's forum he mentioned

'Based on the information contained in Part D, as well as the announced demand data, it appears that the USCIS is not doing a very good job of processing files to completion. If this continues (and it likely will), then it is entirely possible that India and China EB2 could become current or near-current by May.'

'The Visa Office uses all known demand through about the 25th of the previous month. They take into account NVC cases that are deemed "documentarily qualified" as well as known USCIS demand for visas. They look at the available supply of visas for the upcoming month, apply the known demand to it, and try to calculate how many applicants can be given visas without exceeding the permissible supply. '

just adding this for discussion and perspective from you guys..... :)

Thanks for posting. This seems to be happening for the Jan & Feb VB's. Good for everyone since the dates made massive advancements in the last 2 VB's especially. Theoretically now 2 more 1 year advancements are required to make the dates literally current. The USCIS processing speed will now hold the key if they are looking at the "documentarily qualified" as the demand. Good luck to everyone in 2010 for the next VB. Let’s keep monitoring the approvals, there certainly have been brisk approvals in the early days of the month / year.

[nishant2200]

Nishant, thanks for quick reply.Can you elobarate on your last lines

I think actual GC issuance will clear 2007 assuming demand destruction is reality, around 22-24k SO, and Q1 2008 somewhere dates will stick at end of FY.

if VB retrogress and stalls at Mar/Jun 2008, when we are expecting next movement, which moves into 2010?as we are aware, CO already build pipeline for next 2 years will it be somewhere in 2013 Jan or 2013 Oct or 2014?

Whenever retrogression happens, we will be kind of back to the situation we had after the July 2007 fiasco. CO would have a well defined inventory and demand data, and after that it's his choice if he wants to go back to his annual SO, or continue QSP strategy.

If he goes back to his annual SO, whenever he shall see below 10k remaining in demand data, that's when I think he will start pulling tricks out of the bag to again make inventory.

If he goes via QSP, then I believe it will put pressure on USCIS to perform well on the categories which are marked as current (like EB1, EB2 ROW), and in any quarter, they are low on these categories, the EB2IC 485s which are sitting pre-adjudicated will win, and there would be more regular movement in dates as compared to annual SO.

For example, if dates finally stop at March 2008 for FY 2012, then in FY 2013, if CO does annual SO strategy, then the normal quota of few hundreds each month would just lead to a week or so movement every VB, until he applies annual SO in ending of FY, and that's when major date movement would happen. But if he does QSP in FY 2013 also, then depending on QSP projection, even if the QSP is projected to be 6k, dates could move as much as three months instead of the three weeks in Q1 FY 2013.

[vizcard]

This brings us somewhat back to the SOFAD discussion. Are we still thinking 20-25K this year i.e. till about Mar 2008?

[sai999]

All,

I believe due to demand destruction and low filings even with out HR 3012 we will reach End of 2008.

Gurus,

Can you guys please come up with maximum GC issuance date with hr 3012 and with out 3012.

That would bring clarity to me and so many other people.

Thanks in advance

Sai.

[Spectator]

All,

I believe due to demand destruction and low filings even with out HR 3012 we will reach End of 2008.

Gurus,

Can you guys please come up with maximum GC issuance date with hr 3012 and with out 3012.

That would bring clarity to me and so many other people.

Thanks in advance

Sai.Sai,

To put into context what you are saying, with numbers, the Overall Ratio for CY2007 and CY2008 new applications would have to be around 0.40 to use only 25k visas for EB2-IC up to a Cut Off Date of 01JAN09 in FY2012. That compares to the 0.8 - 1.0 that I think Teddy and me use.

Using my assumptions for other factors, that is Demand Destruction of 62%, assuming 20% of PERM cases are denied at the I-140 stage ( and that may be an over estimation).

Using Teddy's assumptions, the Demand Destruction would have to be even higher - 69%.

That doesn't even take into account Porting cases or extra numbers left with PDs from FY2011. If those were factored in, then Demand Destruction of 71-76% might be required.

You may be comfortable with such extreme numbers - personally, I am not with the evidence to hand at the moment.

[gkjppp]

Whenever retrogression happens, we will be kind of back to the situation we had after the July 2007 fiasco. CO would have a well defined inventory and demand data, and after that it's his choice if he wants to go back to his annual SO, or continue QSP strategy.

If he goes back to his annual SO, whenever he shall see below 10k remaining in demand data, that's when I think he will start pulling tricks out of the bag to again make inventory.

If he goes via QSP, then I believe it will put pressure on USCIS to perform well on the categories which are marked as current (like EB1, EB2 ROW), and in any quarter, they are low on these categories, the EB2IC 485s which are sitting pre-adjudicated will win, and there would be more regular movement in dates as compared to annual SO.

For example, if dates finally stop at March 2008 for FY 2012, then in FY 2013, if CO does annual SO strategy, then the normal quota of few hundreds each month would just lead to a week or so movement every VB, until he applies annual SO in ending of FY, and that's when major date movement would happen. But if he does QSP in FY 2013 also, then depending on QSP projection, even if the QSP is projected to be 6k, dates could move as much as three months instead of the three weeks in Q1 FY 2013.

Nishant, thanks for the detailed reply. Hope next month eb2 moves atleast 3 months.Mine is mar 15 2010.

[sai999]

Sai,

To put into context what you are saying, with numbers, the Overall Ratio for CY2007 and CY2008 new applications would have to be around 0.40 to use only 25k visas for EB2-IC up to a Cut Off Date of 01JAN09 in FY2012. That compares to the 0.8 - 1.0 that I think Teddy and me use.

Using my assumptions for other factors, that is Demand Destruction of 62%, assuming 20% of PERM cases are denied at the I-140 stage ( and that may be an over estimation).

Using Teddy's assumptions, the Demand Destruction would have to be even higher - 69%.

That doesn't even take into account Porting cases or extra numbers left with PDs from FY2011. If those were factored in, then Demand Destruction of 71-76% might be required.

You may be comfortable with such extreme numbers - personally, I am not with the evidence to hand at the moment.


Once again thank you so much for your valuable time and also you proved you are man with numbers.

so i totally understand what you are saying ,i know we have 7000 cases left in the 2007 and we need to consider porting also.

Lets put in this way

2007 cases : 7000
Porting : 4000
Aug 15 -Dec 30 : 5000 (around 1000 month including I+C)
Jan 08 - Dec 08 : 1000 (around 1000 month I+C)
------------------------------------------------------------
Total : 26000

Thanks in advance
so with out HR 3012 are we still sticking to March 2008 (even demand destruction) ?

[Spectator]

Once again thank you so much for your valuable time and also you proved you are man with numbers.

so i totally understand what you are saying ,i know we have 7000 cases left in the 2007 and we need to consider porting also.

Lets put in this way

2007 cases : 7000
Porting : 4000
Aug 15 -Dec 30 : 5000 (around 1000 month including I+C)
Jan 08 - Dec 08 : 1000 (around 1000 month I+C)
------------------------------------------------------------
Total : 26000

Thanks in advance
so with out HR 3012 are we still sticking to March 2008 (even demand destruction) ?Hi Sai,

Thanks for the response.

Here is how I see it at present.

We know from the Demand Data that there were 8k cases remaining with a PD earlier than 15APR07 as we started the year. The USCIS Inventory (and approvals) suggest this figure might be as high 10k, although that may include some Porting cases. Let's just use the 8k figure.

PWMB to the end of the backlog is a further 3.3k.

New cases to December 2007 are a further 8.7k.

January - December 2008 are 21.9k.

So that gives:

Existing Cases -------- 8.0
PWMB ------------------ 3.3
Backlog to Dec 31 07 -- 8.7

Total 2007 Cases ----- 20.0

Total 2008 Cases ----- 21.9

Total to end of 2008 - 41.9
Porting --------------- 4.0

Total ---------------- 45.9

The above figures assume an OR of 0.8.

I fully accept that the figures could be lower than that calculation.

To get as low as 1k cases per month, you need Demand Destruction of around 60%, giving an OR of 0.44.

I'm not saying that is impossible, but I would rather see some evidence to back up that level of DD. I'm not sure where that evidence is going to come from in the short term.

P.S. The definition of OR is some pages back. It is the ratio of PERM Certifications (which include EB3, but exclude Dependents) to EB2 I-485 applications (which include Dependents). So an OR of 0.8 is saying that 100 PERM Certifications for EB2 & EB3 converts to 80 EB2 I-485 applications. Without any factors being applied, the OR would be 1.33 to 1.59, depending on the EB2:EB3 split used.

[gkjppp]

Sportsfan,

hope you are busy in packing for your india trip, whats your attorney's take on next months Visa bulletin? Does it move atleast 3 more months? your attorney's words came true last time... I wish you will get insider's info this time as well.... needed 3 more months for me. it may happen in next month or i may need to wait for 2 more years. fingers crossed.

[vizcard]

Spec,
So going by your numbers - 46.5 or lower - we could see additional movement IF CO wants 50k in the pipeline, right?

I'm assuming 50k is 2 yrs with SOFAD of 25k per year.

[Spectator]

Spec,
So going by your numbers - 46.5 or lower - we could see additional movement IF CO wants 50k in the pipeline, right?

I'm assuming 50k is 2 yrs with SOFAD of 25k per year.vizcard,

Note that the figure above is only to the end of 2008.

The Feb VB moves the Cut Off date to the end of 2009.

That represents about 56.7k + Porting etc with an OR of 0.8.

I think there may well be further movement, because I believe CO wants to see actual Demand appearing, rather than relying on USCIS figures and promises. I can't begin to guess what the future movement might be.

[vizcard]

vizcard,

Note that the figure above is only to the end of 2008.

The Feb VB moves the Cut Off date to the end of 2009.

That represents about 56.7k + Porting etc with an OR of 0.8.

I think there may well be further movement, because I believe CO wants to see actual Demand appearing, rather than relying on USCIS figures and promises. I can't begin to guess what the future movement might be.

This is true. I overlooked the 2009 portion of this.

[gkjppp]

Spec,
So going by your numbers - 46.5 or lower - we could see additional movement IF CO wants 50k in the pipeline, right?

I'm assuming 50k is 2 yrs with SOFAD of 25k per year.

I think Spec not included numbers for 2009.not sure though.

[gkjppp]

vizcard,

Note that the figure above is only to the end of 2008.

The Feb VB moves the Cut Off date to the end of 2009.

That represents about 56.7k + Porting etc with an OR of 0.8.

I think there may well be further movement, because I believe CO wants to see actual Demand appearing, rather than relying on USCIS figures and promises. I can't begin to guess what the future movement might be.

I think there may well be further movement, because I believe CO wants to see actual Demand appearing, rather than relying on USCIS figures and promises. I can't begin to guess what the future movement might be.

i like the above line, that has to happen, else i need to wait for almost 2 years more...

[leo07]

Spec, you are just awesome with numbers :)

Hi Sai,

Thanks for the response.

Here is how I see it at present.

We know from the Demand Data that there were 8k cases remaining with a PD earlier than 15APR07 as we started the year. The USCIS Inventory (and approvals) suggest this figure might be as high 10k, although that may include some Porting cases. Let's just use the 8k figure.

PWMB to the end of the backlog is a further 3.3k.

New cases to December 2007 are a further 8.7k.

January - December 2008 are 21.9k.

So that gives:

Existing Cases -------- 8.0
PWMB ------------------ 3.3
Backlog to Dec 31 07 -- 8.7

Total 2007 Cases ----- 20.0

Total 2008 Cases ----- 21.9

Total to end of 2008 - 41.9
Porting --------------- 4.0

Total ---------------- 45.9

The above figures assume an OR of 0.8.

I fully accept that the figures could be lower than that calculation.

To get as low as 1k cases per month, you need Demand Destruction of around 60%, giving an OR of 0.44.

I'm not saying that is impossible, but I would rather see some evidence to back up that level of DD. I'm not sure where that evidence is going to come from in the short term.

P.S. The definition of OR is some pages back. It is the ratio of PERM Certifications (which include EB3, but exclude Dependents) to EB2 I-485 applications (which include Dependents). So an OR of 0.8 is saying that 100 PERM Certifications for EB2 & EB3 converts to 80 EB2 I-485 applications. Without any factors being applied, the OR would be 1.33 to 1.59, depending on the EB2:EB3 split used.

[Desperate8]

The above numbers means its just like a mini Fiasco (representing same like 2007) and it also looks to me that for someone with 2008 PD it would take a little more than a year or may be two :(

[leo07]

I wouldn't call it a fiasco this time, as it is a calculated move. But, yes, in general I agree with your inference that it could take that long for 2008 filers.
Curious, if any 2008 filers got their EAD/AP? if so, is it for 1 year or two years?

The above numbers means its just like a mini Fiasco (representing same like 2007) and it also looks to me that for someone with 2008 PD it would take a little more than a year or may be two :(

[HR3012]

Please pardon my ignorance, but what is demand destruction?

[vizcard]

Please pardon my ignorance, but what is demand destruction?

PERMS filed that don't translate to 485s

[Nishant_imt]

Gurus,

Out of my current situation and curiosity, i was wondering why would USCIS retrogress dates when they can either just not progress the dates any further? They can keep the dates as is instead of retrogressing? I mean, if the intent is to give EAD to people waiting for long time, and making money, why retrogress, keep the dates where they are.

Thanks in Advance.

[kd2008]

Gurus,

Out of my current situation and curiosity, i was wondering why would USCIS retrogress dates when they can either just not progress the dates any further? They can keep the dates as is instead of retrogressing? I mean, if the intent is to give EAD to people waiting for long time, and making money, why retrogress, keep the dates where they are.

Thanks in Advance.

First of all, USCIS does not set the dates. It is the Department of State that sets the dates, a completely different entity than USCIS. Department of State does not like to retrogress dates. It does that because USCIS does not provide correct data on number of applications.

If dates are kept as is, USCIS will eventually approve applications more than the allowed quotas and this may violate Immigration Nationality Act.

[Nishant_imt]

Thanks for the quick reply.


First of all, USCIS does not set the dates. It is the Department of State that sets the dates, a completely different entity than USCIS. Department of State does not like to retrogress dates. It does that because USCIS does not provide correct data on number of applications.

If dates are kept as is, USCIS will eventually approve applications more than the allowed quotas and this may violate Immigration Nationality Act.

[Spectator]

Nishant_imt,

As KD said, the primary purpose of the Cut Off Dates is to control the number of visas issued to stay within the various statutory limits. That is not how they are being used at present for EB2-IC - it is to build up an Inventory.

However far the COD advance, it won't alter the number of actual visas available to EB2-IC in FY2012. Let's say that is enough to grant all qualified applicants to the end of March 2008 a GC.

For an approval to take place, the COD must be Current for the PD at the time a visa is requested.

If the COD was left at 01JAN10, then cases up to that date could also be approved. DOS could just stop issuing visas once the limit was reached in an extreme case (as they did prior to the end of FY2011).

That might be great for a person if it happened to their December 2009 PD case, but a person with a PD earlier than April 2008 who couldn't be approved because visas had been exhausted would not share that opinion.

Retrogressing the COD to a point that just covers visa availability not only ensures that limits are not exceeded, but also ensures some fairness in which PD are approved.

[ChampU]

Nishant_imt,

As KD said, the primary purpose of the Cut Off Dates is to control the number of visas issued to stay within the various statutory limits. That is not how they are being used at present for EB2-IC - it is to build up an Inventory.

However far the COD advance, it won't alter the number of actual visas available to EB2-IC in FY2012. Let's say that is enough to grant all qualified applicants to the end of March 2008 a GC.

For an approval to take place, the COD must be Current for the PD at the time a visa is requested.

If the COD was left at 01JAN10, then cases up to that date could also be approved. DOS could just stop issuing visas once the limit was reached in an extreme case (as they did prior to the end of FY2011).

That might be great for a person if it happened to their December 2009 PD case, but a person with a PD earlier than April 2008 who couldn't be approved because visas had been exhausted would not share that opinion.

Retrogressing the COD to a point that just covers visa availability not only ensures that limits are not exceeded, but also ensures some fairness in which PD are approved.

Great Explanation, Spec!!

[goforgreen]

Also does it not mean anyone with PD less 01/01/2010 can apply for a GC through CP. Retrogessing the dates will also control how many CP cases are processed outside of US.

Have not followed the recent calculations, but surprised to see lot of demand destruction in the calculations, hopefully it will turn out to be true and will benefit everyone.

The recent date movement is really a not to miss opportunity, my PD is in Dec 2007 and I've waited to file 485 for four years. Someone with a PD of late 2009 getting to file in early 2012 is a big relief with the current issues with H1 extensions and stamping.



Nishant_imt,

As KD said, the primary purpose of the Cut Off Dates is to control the number of visas issued to stay within the various statutory limits. That is not how they are being used at present for EB2-IC - it is to build up an Inventory.

However far the COD advance, it won't alter the number of actual visas available to EB2-IC in FY2012. Let's say that is enough to grant all qualified applicants to the end of March 2008 a GC.

For an approval to take place, the COD must be Current for the PD at the time a visa is requested.

If the COD was left at 01JAN10, then cases up to that date could also be approved. DOS could just stop issuing visas once the limit was reached in an extreme case (as they did prior to the end of FY2011).

That might be great for a person if it happened to their December 2009 PD case, but a person with a PD earlier than April 2008 who couldn't be approved because visas had been exhausted would not share that opinion.

Retrogressing the COD to a point that just covers visa availability not only ensures that limits are not exceeded, but also ensures some fairness in which PD are approved.

[gkjppp]

For those interested. This is what the lawyer told me was likely to happen in the coming months.

In the earlier meeting, he seemed positive about a March movement, but today, he said the chances of movement were less (< 50%). He also said if "nothing else changes", retrogression is a certainty and most likely the dates were set to go back into 2007s. The company is advising all employees to file while the window remains open until April.

To summarize:

- March: stall/forward movement.
- April: Stall
- May onwards: retrogression.

Good luck to all. I hope things turn out better for 2010 filers. 2009 has turned out to be the luckiest EB2-I year in recent memory, and should be framed on the wall in fond remembrance.

That's bad, but expected. Hope they push atleast 3 months into 2010, will wait and see.This may take almost 1.5 to 2 years to move forward.

[Mavrick]

I think lot will also depend on what happens to H.r.3012 in congress this month.


For those interested. This is what the lawyer told me was likely to happen in the coming months.

In the earlier meeting, he seemed positive about a March movement, but today, he said the chances of movement were less (< 50%). He also said if "nothing else changes", retrogression is a certainty and most likely the dates were set to go back into 2007s. The company is advising all employees to file while the window remains open until April.

To summarize:

- March: stall/forward movement.
- April: Stall
- May onwards: retrogression.

Good luck to all. I hope things turn out better for 2010 filers. 2009 has turned out to be the luckiest EB2-I year in recent memory, and should be framed on the wall in fond remembrance.

[sugada]

What news could the next bulletin bring us?
A) Movement by another year
B) Gets Current
C) No movement
D) Retrograde

[zenmaster]

What news could the next bulletin bring us?
A) Movement by another year
B) Gets Current
C) No movement
D) Retrograde

I tend to agree with sportsfan33 in post #4205

[asankaran]

Update from Ron's site about EB2's movement
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2012-01-15/rapid-cutoff-date-advances.html

[gkjppp]

Update from Ron's site about EB2's movement
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2012-01-15/rapid-cutoff-date-advances.html

looks like Ron is only one, who is aggressive and positive on EB2 movement.if it is true, it really helps lot of 2010/2011 folks.

[TorreyPines]

Guys,

Long time follower, first-time poster. As other poster said, this site undoubtedly has the best Signal-to-Noise ratio (SNR). Kudos to all.

I am trying to understand what is the parameter being used by CO to move dates forward (long/short movements). If demand is gauged by:

A. Visa numbers requested by USCIS: These numbers increase big enough only when Dec-Feb filers are documentarily qualified. Not going to happen for 2-3 of months from now. So can expect 3-6 month/VB movement for 2-3 months OR 1 year movement in March VB and stall for next two. After that comes 2012 spillover season.

B. Number of I-485 receipts with some multiplication factor: Will CO be interested in these numbers since # of receipts means nothing to him when it comes to today's visa numbers' consumption? If interested, forward movement might stop starting April VB. March VB is 50-50 for at max ~6-month movement and is subject to how many file I-485 for PD 2009 (assuming good percentage of PD 2008 guys will file by end of Feb).

C. He does a inky-pinky-ponky on different PD cutoffs, which I hope not.

Can experts agree/disagree which one of the above is most-likely?

PS: Apologize if this is an already discussed and blessed discussion.

[bieber]

looks like Ron is only one, who is aggressive and positive on EB2 movement.if it is true, it really helps lot of 2010/2011 folks.

Ron's post doens't make much sense, he seems late to the party. The chances of dates moving to C are very slim. There was no demand because the processing takes few months and the demand will show up very soon

[gkjppp]

Ron's post doens't make much sense, he seems late to the party. The chances of dates moving to C are very slim. There was no demand because the processing takes few months and the demand will show up very soon

You are right, EB2 will not become current in near future. chances are high in next bulletin EB2 moves atleast 3 to 6 months.

[vishnu]

Bieber - agree that chances of C is very slim / impossible. but Ron I don't think is late to the party. Around summer of last year, he wrote an article how EB2 India would move very fast after it cleared summer 07 dates. Perhaps he was just as exuberant then as he is now? Or perhaps there is some widsom to his words... Bulletins realeased in Feb and Mar will sure tell us.

[randomax]

No where close to being an expert here, but I would imagine the CO knows that it takes 3-6 months to process the incoming applications. The fact that the bulletin still mentions that demand has been surprisingly low makes me somewhat optimistic...

[gkjppp]

Guru's

if there is any forward movement for EB2 in 2012, that would be Mar bulletin further movement chances are bleak .That's being said, as forum name is EB2 predictions rather calculations. please predict what would be next months movement. Lets see who's prediction will be close match to Mar'12 bulletin.

[mygctracker]

I really hope VB moves further, but My prediction for Mar'12 VB is that the dates will STALL.

Reasons:

Trackitt indicates OCT filers getting AOS approved. So next DD won't show less numbers. DOS has taken full advantage of the DD and moved the dates so far. Next month he will start seeing the Demand.
CO indicated In Nov meeting with AILA, that dates will progress in Dec, Jan & Feb. I don't think he mentioned Mar? [Correct me if wrong]

My take may be completely wrong, but just wanted to post.

Thanks!



Guru's

if there is any forward movement for EB2 in 2012, that would be Mar bulletin further movement chances are bleak .That's being said, as forum name is EB2 predictions rather calculations. please predict what would be next months movement. Lets see who's prediction will be close match to Mar'12 bulletin.

[vishnu]

Given CO uses the phrase, "Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly it will be necessary to slowdown or halt, I think good chance we will see some movement. I am not counting on 12 months (although that would be most welcome with a PD of Sep 2010!), but perhaps 6 months?

[TorreyPines]

For 2008-2009 PD there are lot of uncertainties (DD being the key), and calculations can't hold strength until there is meaningful demand data. I am guessing for next 2-3 months, it would be prediction only.

My gut feeling for March VB is:

70% - 6 month movement
20 % - >6 month - 1 Year movement
10% - Stall/Retro (since demand is still low as per previous VB).

If above really happens, my gut feeling for April VB is:
90% - Stall/retro.
10% - High DD- Low I-485 receipts for PD 2008/2009 - move another 6-12 months.

Assumptions: Demand gauged by 485 receipts.

I will jump into calculations once demand data is meaningful.


Guru's

if there is any forward movement for EB2 in 2012, that would be Mar bulletin further movement chances are bleak .That's being said, as forum name is EB2 predictions rather calculations. please predict what would be next months movement. Lets see who's prediction will be close match to Mar'12 bulletin.

[bieber]

Bieber - agree that chances of C is very slim / impossible. but Ron I don't think is late to the party. Around summer of last year, he wrote an article how EB2 India would move very fast after it cleared summer 07 dates. Perhaps he was just as exuberant then as he is now? Or perhaps there is some widsom to his words... Bulletins realeased in Feb and Mar will sure tell us.
Vishnu,
I don't intend to comment on his credibility, but I usually never learn anything new from him

The NVC notices with July 2008 dates was perhaps the most significant information he posted, which was useful to keep hopes on Jan bulletin

[vishnu]

Got it Bieber... and you are right about the fee notices. Also, since no one has posted information of 2010 fee notices, obviously not a good sign!

[gkjppp]

Guru's

if there is any forward movement for EB2 in 2012, that would be Mar bulletin further movement chances are bleak .That's being said, as forum name is EB2 predictions rather calculations. please predict what would be next months movement. Lets see who's prediction will be close match to Mar'12 bulletin.

No predictions from qesehmk/Veni/Spec/Teddy/Nishant ???

[Gclongwait]

I think we have seen the dates as much as they will. They probably wont retrogess for another month or so but in April there is a high chance of retrogession.

The reasoning is that the bulletin is moving not just based on DD but also on USCIS telling DoS how many I485 applications are being filed. My understanding earlier was that Mar 08 would be covered this year that was based on about 2200 I-485/month.

Nov bulletin - Nov 1, this is obviously not enough to cover FY2012
Dec bulletin - Mar 15 08 -- this should have been enough but maybe due to demand destruction it still wasnt enough to cover FY2012

So DoS says "fudge it" and moves to Jan 1 09. Even if destruction is 20-25% we still have 1800 apps/month. so from July 15 - mar 15 = 14000 + another 14000 till Jan 1 09 = 28000 apps filed from Nov 11 - jan 12
I think we can agree that this movement will be enough to cover FY2012 + DoS has another years worth of I485 coming in next month but once USCIS gives the report of Jan filings DoS is going to realize they have more then enough Apps. Also they dont want to overload USCIS with more than they can handle.

I hope I am wrong but this is predictions right???

[Prabhas]

There was a post on immi***-law some weeks ago and the from the table it is apparent that for the FY2011 I-485s had 123K approvals, and 78K new applications, means the queue is shortened by 45K per year…So, doesn't it mean that they need more I-485s this year? Gurus, Am I missing something here?

Also there were only 123K approvals for FY2011, does that mean 17k Visas were lost?

I any event I guess there are fair chances for the dates to move in March bulletin at-least by few months. After all, I believe CO waited too long do this movement which should have started in early 2011 itself instead of waiting for the eb2 inventory to hit the bottom pit.Because if USCIS doesn't process I-485 before May bulletin, then there is a potential good news for EB3 with a spill over. Now, the million dollar question is will CO be happy with 50k in pipeline for EB2 or does he want to build more.

[bieber]

** says they are pushing for further movement .

LOL, i hope next bulletin will have further movement, didn't they already do us all big favor [pun intended]

[mesan123]

i dont know about the calculations part...guru's can update on that..

but i dont think it will benfit EB3 I/c. as incase the spill over is there also. it will be applied to the EB3 ROW first. not trying to be harsh, ....but the way the spill over is used is...if all EB2 people are current( or if there no preadjucated people waiting for visas in EB2) , then the spill over goes to the EB3 ROW, once that is Current then only it is distributed to the indivijaul countries.


There was a post on immi***-law some weeks ago and the from the table it is apparent that for the FY2011 I-485s had 123K approvals, and 78K new applications, means the queue is shortened by 45K per year…So, doesn't it mean that they need more I-485s this year? Gurus, Am I missing something here?

Also there were only 123K approvals for FY2011, does that mean 17k Visas were lost?

I any event I guess there are fair chances for the dates to move in March bulletin at-least by few months. After all, I believe CO waited too long do this movement which should have started in early 2011 itself instead of waiting for the eb2 inventory to hit the bottom pit.Because if USCIS doesn't process I-485 before May bulletin, then there is a potential good news for EB3 with a spill over. Now, the million dollar question is will CO be happy with 50k in pipeline for EB2 or does he want to build more.

[gkjppp]

i dont know about the calculations part...guru's can update on that..

but i dont think it will benfit EB3 I/c. as incase the spill over is there also. it will be applied to the EB3 ROW first. not trying to be harsh, ....but the way the spill over is used is...if all EB2 people are current( or if there no preadjucated people waiting for visas in EB2) , then the spill over goes to the EB3 ROW, once that is Current then only it is distributed to the indivijaul countries.

You are right,right now if EB2 is current spillover goes to EB3 ROW first.

[mesan123]

i dont know how long the moment will be in next 2 bulletions...i m little scared at this point incase the dtaes move to jan 2011 and stall there and retrogress ...because then people from jan 2011 will be waiting for next 3 years or so for the dates to move.....i dont want that to repeat like jul 2007 scenario....where people from aug 2007 had to wait for 4 years to apply for 485....

what ever CO is thinking...this next 2 visa bulletions are going to affect many of us largely....


** says they are pushing for further movement .

[Spectator]

There was a post on immi***-law some weeks ago and the from the table it is apparent that for the FY2011 I-485s had 123K approvals, and 78K new applications, means the queue is shortened by 45K per year…So, doesn't it mean that they need more I-485s this year? Gurus, Am I missing something here?

Also there were only 123K approvals for FY2011, does that mean 17k Visas were lost?The 123k figure came from this USCIS document (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.pdf).

USCIS only deal with AOS cases for which an I485 is required. The balance to the 140k would be Consular Processed cases handled by DOS, for which no I-485 is required.

17k is slightly higher than recent years (13-14k), but I can think of some reasons why that might be the case.

The new applications is not quite so simple. Here are my thoughts.

Only people whose PD is Current can file an I-485.

That means people from EB1, EB2-ROW-M-P, EB4 & EB5 plus the movement in Cut Off Dates throughout the year for EB2-IC and all of EB3.

New I-485 filing from EB2-IC and EB3 would be comparatively low, since the COD in FY2011 were all pre the end of the backlog and most people have already filed an I-485 who could. That means they were mainly PWMB and adding dependents. That wouldn't be huge numbers IMO.

The bulk of new applications just replace those earlier ones from Current groups that were approved in FY2011.

Looking at the total numbers of I-485 Receipts at NSC & TSC, FY2011 had higher numbers than FY2010 (17% increase). NSC/TSC handle I-485 for EB / Refugee / Asylee - it isn't possible to split out the EB cases for previous years.

My (rather quick) thoughts anyway.

[gkjppp]

The 123k figure came from this USCIS document (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.pdf).

USCIS only deal with AOS cases for which an I485 is required. The balance to the 140k would be Consular Processed cases handled by DOS, for which no I-485 is required.

17k is slightly higher than recent years (13-14k), but I can think of some reasons why that might be the case.

Spec, i dont see your prediction for my earlier post

Guru's

if there is any forward movement for EB2 in 2012, that would be Mar bulletin further movement chances are bleak .That's being said, as forum name is EB2 predictions rather calculations. please predict what would be next months movement. Lets see who's prediction will be close match to Mar'12 bulletin.

[richie.rich]

Not sure but I have a feeling that the next PD is going to be Jan 01, 2011.

[vizcard]

Theoretically there is no need for further movement. But if there's uncertainty in terms of demand, CO could move it as much as he wants. It could be 1 month, 3 months or 12 months....... or nothing at all.

[username1]

Spectater

All NIW do not have any relation with J1 waiver. The NIW I am talking about is independent of any J1 waiver. It is for 5 years, you do not need an employer to file and you do not need PERM but you do need employment contract for 5 years.

[Spectator]

Spectater

All NIW do not have any relation with J1 waiver. The NIW I am talking about is independent of any J1 waiver. It is for 5 years, you do not need an employer to file and you do not need PERM but you do need employment contract for 5 years.username1,

Thanks for the clarification.

I had to make an educated assumption, which I stated, since many foreign physicians use the J-1 for graduate medical studies and then work in an under served area to waive the HRR.

I now understand the waiver available via NIW (8 CFR §204.12: National Interest Waivers for Physicians Serving in a Medically Underserved Area or VA Facility)

[vishnu]

Asked my immigration attorney (one of the largest in the country, not fragomen though) whether my Sep 2010 PD could become current in the next few months. She is always super duper conservative and always uses the phrase 'wait for years on Eb2 India'. Today she said "it is possible". Not saying she has any insights and certainly not asking anyone to become more optimistic but wanted to highlight how confused the entire fraternity is with this rapid date movement.

[gkjppp]

20k H1's are for MS guys, assume 50% them applied for GC's every year . ie 10k. 50% chances are there 5k are unmarried in that pool or in dilemma to file or rushing for finding girl, this definetely take atleast 6 months to 1 year for them to file.most of them finishes MS by 23 years + 2.5 years OPT + 2 years H1 they start apply for GC=28 years

so since Jan 1st 2008 to Jan 1st 2010 there must be atleast 8k . i.e 17% huge....what do you guys think?

[ChampU]

I am not sure, if I understand the correlation with the applicant's age.. (23+2.5+...??)

Since you are looking at the H1B pool.. and since 80% of MS guys applying for H1 come from retrogressed countries.. I would say that applicants would jump at the first opportunity to start the GC process (PERM+I140). The decision of filing for I-485 could be dominated by the marital status but that opportunity was not available to them until a couple of months ago..But the guys are definitely in the queue.

The reluctance of companies to file for PERM etc. because of the economy could be a reason that folks (who would have been eligible) haven't filed for PERM yet. I am not sure if there is a way to track that.. (Guys on H1 but who haven't filed for PERM).

[qesehmk]

For those worried about date being current before getting married - one piece of advice:

Your spouse can benefit from your PD even after you get your GC. This is called "follow to join". This topic has previously been discussed on the forum. Please search on this one. If I remember correctly Spec had answered these questions in detail.

[veni001]

USCIS Policy Memo on EB-5 Adjudications (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Feedback%20Opportunities/Draft%20Memorandum%20for%20Comment/EB5_coverandmemo_2ndpost.pdf) - Draft posted for comments.

[veni001]

Just received magic e-mail for my 485 case status changed to Card/ Document Production, waiting on spouse 485 case status to change.

Interestingly, my delayed EAD-AP card arrived in the mail today (40 days after approval), can't even enjoy it for a day!.

Teddy, Nishanth to follow and i wish all the best to those already filed and the others waiting to file their AOS.

[cricfan]

gkjppp,

I hope you meant 10/2013 in your signature...my PD(03/11/10) is very close to your PD and I hope the worst case situation is 10/2013.

[gkjppp]

gkjppp,

I hope you meant 10/2013 in your signature...my PD(03/11/10) is very close to your PD and I hope the worst case situation is 10/2013.

Nope, it is 10/2014 without HR 3012. it takes more than 2 years to clear current inventory, approx 58k cases. Its now or in 2014 for us.

[veni001]

Congratulations Veni !!

Does this mean that now USCIS/DOS has much more demand and we should see actual demand in next bulletin ?
Would GC be handed out till the end of sep 2012 or can it halt in between ?

codesmith,

The way USCIS is approving PWMB applications, we may not see them as part of the monthly demand data DOS is publishing.

Assuming USCIS will stick to QSP, yes we will see approvals through out FY2012.

By the time USCIS start processing Dec'11/Jan'12 EB2IC filers, DOS should start seeing lot of VISA requests coming-in than the numbers available, which will trigger the next VB to see retro.

[gkjppp]

codesmith,

The way USCIS is approving PWMB applications, we may not see them as part of the monthly demand data DOS is publishing.

Assuming USCIS will stick to QSP, yes we will see approvals through out FY2012.

By the time USCIS start processing Dec'11/Jan'12 EB2IC filers, DOS should start seeing lot of VISA requests coming-in than the numbers available, which will trigger the next VB to see retro. next means Mar bulletin?. I guess it takes 3 to 4 months to reflect in the demand data, i feel it is Apr bulletin.

[operas]

next means Mar bulletin?. I guess it takes 3 to 4 months to reflect in the demand data, i feel it is Apr bulletin.

Yes hopefully.. Im @ Feb 2010.. hope we get a chance in March :)

[codesmith]

next means Mar bulletin?. I guess it takes 3 to 4 months to reflect in the demand data, i feel it is Apr bulletin.

If you refer to the CO's interview ..
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

And if you take his word then I don't think we should see much/any movement in coming times, IMHO. Don't want to be spoiler :(

[gkjppp]

If you refer to the CO's interview ..
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

And if you take his word then I don't think we should see much/any movement in coming times, IMHO. Don't want to be spoiler :(

Thats old news, even in that CO told "4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated", Let's wait and see.

[veni001]

next means Mar bulletin?. I guess it takes 3 to 4 months to reflect in the demand data, i feel it is Apr bulletin.

gkjppp,

What i mean to say was the bulletin that will be published in the month (or after) DOS see the increased demand for the VISA numbers.

Considering the 3-4 month processing time we are seeing now, best case scenario will be April or worst case June.

[Rkmarthy]

Hello, I have a question on dependent I485 application. My wife has her own I140 approved, but as my dates became current, applied as dependent on my application. Just got received notices and we see my wife's PD has her actual PD (from her labor and I140), instead of received date. Will there be any issue? Lawyer did fill her A# from her I140 application on 485 and other forms, but I did verify that her application is dependent application. Thanks in advance.

[veni001]

Congrats!!
When did you file your 485?

Thank you

Here is my case details.

TSC || PD : 05/10/2007 || RD: 03-Oct-2011 || ND: 05-Oct-2011 || FP : 27-Oct-2011 || EAD/AP : 02-Dec-2011 || 485: 01/12/2012

[Spectator]

Gurus,

My company is filling my PERM again. This time to see things move forward quickly, they posted the job ads with a decently high salary and simultaneously apply for a PWD. The idea was that the wage will be higher then the PWD and so we can PERM immediately after the cooling period. My question is, is that legal and ok to post the ad before the prevailing wage is determined ? thanks in advance.Nishant_imt,

I agree wih Q, it is perfectly legal and poses no problems if the salary is higher than the PWD.

I think the only difference is that the PERM must be submitted within the validity of the PWD rather than within 180 days of recruitment starting, had that been after the PWD was received. Don't quote me on that.

I have no doubt your team will be on top of the regulations.

Best of luck for a speedy and successful process.

[Pdmar08]

Hello, I have a question on dependent I485 application. My wife has her own I140 approved, but as my dates became current, applied as dependent on my application. Just got received notices and we see my wife's PD has her actual PD (from her labor and I140), instead of received date. Will there be any issue? Lawyer did fill her A# from her I140 application on 485 and other forms, but I did verify that her application is dependent application. Thanks in advance.

It is an issue in the sense that it should either urs or RD. else when processing time comes and here date is not current there could be issues.
I have the same problem, i talked to my lawyer, he didnt say "nah its ok" they are going to talk to uscis.
I suggest you talk to ur lawyer.

[vizcard]

Not a single post today? :)

[red2green]

Hello, I have a question on dependent I485 application. My wife has her own I140 approved, but as my dates became current, applied as dependent on my application. Just got received notices and we see my wife's PD has her actual PD (from her labor and I140), instead of received date. Will there be any issue? Lawyer did fill her A# from her I140 application on 485 and other forms, but I did verify that her application is dependent application. Thanks in advance.

I think this is normal. If you notice there should be a line on the rcpt notice that the earlier PDs may not reflect. Since primary & derivatives applications move as one file, it should not delay her case processing.

[Spectator]

What Does the Demand Data represent?

I see lots of misconceptions about what the Demand Data shows.

There are many comments that say that looking at the Demand Data will give a guide to how much the Visa Bulletin will progress or whether retrogression is likely.

If you understand what the Demand Data is, you will see that neither is possible at the moment.

The figures in the Demand Data represent the number of documentarily qualified cases where a visa request has been made, but the visa has not yet been allocated. It is just a Pending file for cases where a visa request has not, or cannot, be actioned.

Let's understand when a case becomes documentarily qualified, when a visa is requested, and when it is allocated.

(a) For Consular Processed cases, a case becomes documentarily qualified when NVC requests a visa after Packet 4 information has been received and the interview date is set.

Between that time and when, the interview actually takes place, the visa is pending and adds one to the Demand Data total.

If the interview is successful, then the visa is consumed. If the interview is not successful, it is returned to the pool. In both cases, the Demand Data total is reduced by one.

(b) For AOS cases, a case becomes documentarily qualified when USCIS adjudicate and approve the I-485 case. At this point they request a visa from DOS.

Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated, because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data and the total rises by one.

If the PD is Current, which it is for all EB2-IC I-485 cases in the system at the moment, the visa is allocated and used immediately. The Demand Data total remains unchanged.

For all the new applications that USCIS have received since October 2011, with an average processing time of 4-6 months, virtually none will have reached the stage of being adjudicated. For those few that have (such as Veni's), the visa request was granted immediately because the PD was Current, leaving the Demand Data total unchanged.


Only when Cut Off Dates retrogress can the Demand Data figures for EB2-IC increase.

In this situation, if USCIS request a visa for a case with a PD that is no longer Current, then it will be added to the Demand Data total.

Possibly, the other way that the Demand Data might increase, is if DOS run out of visas for EB2-IC under Quarterly Spillover and stop allocating them.

The few cases shown in the Demand Data at present almost certainly represent Consular Processed cases, where the visa has been pre-allocated, but an interview has not yet taken place.

Look at EB2-ROW. It has always been Current. The maximum amount I have seen from a quick look at past Demand Data is the 130 in the latest version.

When the Demand Data for March 2012 is published, don't expect it to be much different from the February 2012 one. If the dates don't retrogress in the March VB, the April one won't be either.

[murakh]

I know this might not be the proper thread to post it but i need help...so may be some one of you might have answer for my problem
So back in 98 I was framed to be involved in college mob fight. I wasnt even present on sight. However charges were filed. NO arrest was made as antispatory bail was issued . Latter on it was proved in court that charged were framing and false so case was dismissed. Now when i tried to get police clearence from india it says FIR was made latter on case was dismissed
When I filled my ds-260 form i wasnt even aware of this situation. so clicked no . Now when I would present this police clearence with court order would it have any affect on my case
any help would be greatly appreciated ! May God bless you !

[qesehmk]

All those questions about felony etc .... to my understanding are as they relate to US jurisdiction. I am not sure if what you did or didn't do in India matters a whole lot.

That's my gut feel. I am not very confident on this one.


I know this might not be the proper thread to post it but i need help...so may be some one of you might have answer for my problem
So back in 98 I was framed to be involved in college mob fight. I wasnt even present on sight. However charges were filed. NO arrest was made as antispatory bail was issued . Latter on it was proved in court that charged were framing and false so case was dismissed. Now when i tried to get police clearence from india it says FIR was made latter on case was dismissed
When I filled my ds-260 form i wasnt even aware of this situation. so clicked no . Now when I would present this police clearence with court order would it have any affect on my case
any help would be greatly appreciated ! May God bless you !

[murakh]

thanks Q . I have applied throgh consular process and they ask for police clearence from india so I dont know. may be lawyer can answer my qs

[qesehmk]

Makes sense. I was only talking about 485.


thanks Q . I have applied throgh consular process and they ask for police clearence from india so I dont know. may be lawyer can answer my qs

[veni001]

Spec

This is a crystal clear explanation to what exactly is the term Demand Data. I request to please open a thread in Facts and Data Section and add this post .

Thank you


Spec,

Very good post, copied to Monthly Demand Data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates)thread in Facts and Data Section.

[Spectator]

Spec

This is a crystal clear explanation to what exactly is the term Demand Data. I request to please open a thread in Facts and Data Section and add this post .

Thank you


Spec,

Very good post, copied to Monthly Demand Data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates)thread in Facts and Data Section.Kanmani, Veni,

Thanks for the kind comments.

Demand Data for EB2-IC has been very useful in the past, when a fairly static backlog was reducing, and it will be in the future when a new backlog starts to increase.

I still look forward to the DD to see what is happening in EB3, but it makes rather depressing reading.

Veni,

I think ultimately, where you have copied the post is the correct place, but it is slightly buried in the existing thread. To provide some temporary greater visibility, I will copy it to a new thread. When the figures start to increase, I will delete it and leave the only copy in your thread. I hope that makes sense.

[sudkal33]

I have a quick question to the experienced members, about the predicted movement in Mar VB.
So far, we havent seen any NVC fee notices for PDs with 2010.
Does that mean, that CO has decided to stall the PD movement for Mar VB?

[qesehmk]

I think it means NSC is processing cases with Oct 2007 PD in as little as 2 months.

The processing is more a function of your PD than when you filed.



Gurus, does this mean that NSC is processing Nov cases now ?

[natvyas]

Isnt the USCIS inventory report overdue ?

Cheers
Nat

[suninphx]

Can some one tell me that statement '8k-10k already consumed' - is based on calculations or actual data?

[nishant2200]

Can some one tell me that statement '8k-10k already consumed' - is based on calculations or actual data?

sun, the DD before Oct VB showed around 8.5k which got wiped out by Oct VB move to 15 July 2007. And pretty sure there were would be others before that date too, who were in pending inventory, not in DD. also people with dates current in Nov VB are starting to get approvals as well as PWMB of Oct VB. So I agree with the statement of 8-10k consumed.

[sandeep11]

This case also makes me believe that an approval can be made purely on the initial FBI clearance report (remember that this takes normally 24-48 hrs after the FP is done). With the initial FBI clearance maybe they consider the file pre-adjudicated assuming that all the supporting documents are in place and processed. May be rest of the checks would invlove only if there is something unusual (like some wierd combination of name that closely matches to ours pops up etc). In this case it was done on 1/9 and approved on 1/13. Wow.

Maybe Once FP is done there might be a trigger that 485 is ready for approval if the application is already processed and that there is a number available.

There is a glimmer of hope for the rest of Nov and Dec filers. I guess it is all matter of luck and the superfast IO that our file is assigned to.

Tick..Tick...Tick...Tick......



Wov! I am happy as well as jealous :)

Take a couple of sick days off n party. Oct PD got it, this is great. QSP rocks. God bless CO.

May I ask if did masters here, and if u hold a fulltime or consulting position.

[imdeng]

I had mentioned 8K-10K figure based on Teddy's estimate for visa numbers consumed so far in FY2012. I believe his rationale is same as Nishant's below.

sun, the DD before Oct VB showed around 8.5k which got wiped out by Oct VB move to 15 July 2007. And pretty sure there were would be others before that date too, who were in pending inventory, not in DD. also people with dates current in Nov VB are starting to get approvals as well as PWMB of Oct VB. So I agree with the statement of 8-10k consumed.

[vp5856]

Agreed with you sportsfan33 and Nishant. Makes sense. Nov and Dec filers(at least) , good news on the cards! :)


So if the levels of spillover remains the same, EB2-IC will end up consuming 32-40K visas in FY 2012? That's incredible. That has to be a record if it holds up.

[natvyas]

Pandits

With this, does the projection of having the gc in hand move to the right or does it still remain at Jan 08 time frame?

[imdeng]

No - the 8K-10K consumption till date is part of the overall figure available. So the reality is actually the opposite - if we have a total SOFAD of say 25K, then we have already consumed 10K and we only have 15K remaining for the rest of the year. Right now the consensus seems to be that we will get a TOTAL of 25K-30K visas for EB2I. This is mainly because EB1 has picked up but EB2ROW has slowed down in FY2012.

So if the levels of spillover remains the same, EB2-IC will end up consuming 32-40K visas in FY 2012? That's incredible. That has to be a record if it holds up.

[TeddyKoochu]

Firstly once again congratulations to whereismygclost its great news. The process of approvals once the date is current is essentially a multi thread human intensive process rather than a single thread ordered batch process with IO's doing each case individually. Finally the Nov filers account has been opened by a clean case. PD being current essentially makes the case eligible to be approved while an earlier RD and ND gives higher likelihood of the case being at a stage further assuming all officers / adjudicators are at the same pace and follow exactly the same process. Also the case being simpler or having exceptional qualifications also helps. Let us wait for more Nov EB2 I / C cases gain traction on approvals now. Finally what matters for a speedier approval is the officer / adjudicator's judgment in that sense whereismygclost's case is outstanding so it definitely helped the officer decide that this case warrants an approval right away no need to look into any further.
The process will have randomness now with all factors playing in. I very sincerely thank all of you for your kind words and keeping me in your minds. I wish everyone a speedier approval. Some of the real old-timers like imechanix, leo07, 03may2007 are waiting from the Oct batch. Looks like for our good friend Sogaddu will see his 485 approval before EAD / AP. Good luck to all.

[vp5856]

Well said Teddy. I heard stories, being in a multinational helps (no disrespect to whereismygclost) - lobbying and all. Hope this is not the case...


Firstly once again congratulations to whereismygclost its great news. The process of approvals once the date is current is essentially a multi thread human intensive process rather than a single thread ordered batch process with IO's doing each case individually. Finally the Nov filers account has been opened by a clean case. PD being current essentially makes the case eligible to be approved while an earlier RD and ND gives higher likelihood of the case being at a stage further assuming all officers / adjudicators are at the same pace and follow exactly the same process. Also the case being simpler or having exceptional qualifications also helps. Let us wait for more Nov EB2 I / C cases gain traction on approvals now. Finally what matters for a speedier approval is the officer / adjudicator's judgment in that sense whereismygclost's case is outstanding so it definitely helped the officer decide that this case warrants an approval right away no need to look into any further.
The process will have randomness now with all factors playing in. I very sincerely thank all of you for your kind words and keeping me in your minds. I wish everyone a speedier approval. Some of the real old-timers like imechanix, leo07, 03may2007 are waiting from the Oct batch. Looks like for our good friend Sogaddu will see his 485 approval before EAD / AP. Good luck to all.

[suninphx]

Nishant, imdeng

I don't necessarily disagree with 8k -10k number. By reading some posts today I got impression that it's a verified through some report which I missed. So was just making sure. Thanks guys.

[TeddyKoochu]

Nishant /Imdeng / SuninPhx -

Consider the following facts. Oct Demand data showed 8.5K and Oct Inventory shows 14K. The Oct inventory may have had some PWMB cases who filed in Jul & Aug, almost all these cases are approved. The inventory may contain some older problematic cases and some cases adjusted for porting. Overall here itself 11K is the average of the inventory and demand data. Maybe let’s settle for 10K here.

Oct filers Apr 15 to Jul 15th PWMB cases have been calculated to be 2K, of that probably 50% are already approved refer to Trackitt and the posts from our friend QBF.

Porting we had assumed is 3K a year, trackitt shows a fairly high number of porting cases. If we consider that a third of the year is gone then it’s another 1K.
This would put the consumption at ~ 12K. It is definitely a minimum of 10K if you consider the demand data and not the mean of the inventory and demand data at the 01-Oct-2011 point that is now approved. Throughout Oct – Dec 2011, 2007 preadjudicated cases have been approved.

[imdeng]

10K+ is a reasonable estimate for EB2I visas issued in Q1FY2012. Considering that the approvals are continuing in Q2FY2012 following QSP, the important question is - where is CO getting these visa numbers from??

Assuming a linear allocation, Q1 had 140/4 = 35K visas to give. 10K to EB2I would mean 30% of total EB visas to EB2I. This mark has never been reached before - its unprecedented and frankly unsustainable considering that EB1 has picked up pace recently. CO has discretion in setting up PD; however, actually issuing visas is a much serious deal and there is very little discretion involved. Perhaps a combination of EB2ROW demand decline and EB2IC demand destruction is the story here.

Nishant /Imdeng / SuninPhx -

Consider the following facts. Oct Demand data showed 8.5K and Oct Inventory shows 14K. The Oct inventory may have had some PWMB cases who filed in Jul & Aug, almost all these cases are approved. The inventory may contain some older problematic cases and some cases adjusted for porting. Overall here itself 11K is the average of the inventory and demand data. Maybe let’s settle for 10K here.

Oct filers Apr 15 to Jul 15th PWMB cases have been calculated to be 2K, of that probably 50% are already approved refer to Trackitt and the posts from our friend QBF.

Porting we had assumed is 3K a year, trackitt shows a fairly high number of porting cases. If we consider that a third of the year is gone then it’s another 1K.
This would put the consumption at ~ 12K. It is definitely a minimum of 10K if you consider the demand data and not the mean of the inventory and demand data at the 01-Oct-2011 point that is now approved. Throughout Oct – Dec 2011, 2007 preadjudicated cases have been approved.

[sudkal33]

Sorry ro ask this question again....
I have a quick question to the experienced members, about the predicted movement in Mar VB.
So far, we havent seen any NVC fee notices for PDs with 2010.
Does that mean, that CO has decided to stall the PD movement for Mar VB?

[mechanical13]

Are there any macro-economic reasons why EB2ROW demand would be low?

For all practical reasons, the economy seems to be improving. Also, the economy in Europe seems to be getting worse, which would suggest that people there are probably looking for safe havens (want to come to the US).

The 10k EB2I allocation suggests that there are other factors at play. I don't what they are (perhaps anticipation that HR3012 will pass), but USCIS can't use VISA numbers in anticipation...can they?

The only other explanation is that demand destruction for EB2 and EB1 is staggering and beyond anything anyone had ever anticipated. (This ofcourse still does not explain the 10k allocation because one would think this demand destruction applies to EB2I as well).

Just my thoughts. I am really a novice at these calculations.

[imdeng]

Although the absence of fee notices does not completely preclude the possibility of forward movement, it surely reduces the probability. Coupled with the fact that the Feb VB did not have as encouraging a language as the Jan VB does indicate that the movement might stall. There shouldn't be any retrogression as yet since visa numbers continue to be available but given the massive inventory that DoS already have, my personal opinion is that the chances of forward movement are low.

Sorry ro ask this question again....
I have a quick question to the experienced members, about the predicted movement in Mar VB.
So far, we havent seen any NVC fee notices for PDs with 2010.
Does that mean, that CO has decided to stall the PD movement for Mar VB?

[Spectator]

Are there any macro-economic reasons why EB2ROW demand would be low?

For all practical reasons, the economy seems to be improving. Also, the economy in Europe seems to be getting worse, which would suggest that people there are probably looking for safe havens (want to come to the US).

The 10k EB2I allocation suggests that there are other factors at play. I don't what they are (perhaps anticipation that HR3012 will pass), but USCIS can't use VISA numbers in anticipation...can they?

The only other explanation is that demand destruction for EB2 and EB1 is staggering and beyond anything anyone had ever anticipated. (This ofcourse still does not explain the 10k allocation because one would think this demand destruction applies to EB2I as well).

Just my thoughts. I am really a novice at these calculations.I don't know if this helps in your thinking.

PERM Certifications for Non-IC Countries have shown a steady decline over recent years, which isn't really the case for IC.

Non-IC
------------------ % of Total
CY2006 - 55.7k --- 63.0%
CY2007 - 44.4k --- 60.5%
CY2008 - 37.5k --- 57.5%
CY2009 - 22.9k --- 55.0%
CY2010 - 18.5k --- 42.9%

CY2011 is not complete. For Certifications in FY2011 (with PDs of Jan-June 2011), the figures are

CY2011 (part) - 9.8k - 36.5%

Although not complete, 2011 PDs for non-IC hint at a slight increase over the 2010 figures.

Forecasting actual approval rates is complicated by the fact that there appear to be backlogs of EB2-Non IC cases.

[funnysummer2005]

Hi Guys- many places in the forms ask for:
1) I-94 number- this is the number that has already been printed on the i-94 card right? basically the preprinted number on the i-94 card that you picked up at the airport? and htis number changes everytime you have entered the country right? so we need to use the number on the most recent i-94 card received while entering?

2) A number or alien registration number- firstly is A number and Alien registration number the same? and where can i find this number? On my old EAD cards that i received for OPT, i see something called INS A number- is that the same? what should i enter here please.

Quick response will be greatly appreciated. I am trying to send these forms out asap.

Thanks,

[Spectator]

There are some interesting figures in this Department of Labor Office of Foreign Labor Certification Stakeholders Meeting—January 6, 2012 document (http://www.nafsa.org/uploadedFiles/DOL%20Stakeholder%20Notes%2020110106.pdf)


For the first quarter of the fiscal year (which began Oct. 1, 2011), DOL has adjudicated approximately 13,000 labor certification applications (ETA-9089s), certifying 9400, auditing 2400, and denying 600.

Currently DOL has pending 21,000 ETA-9089s:

50% in analyst review (filed October 2011 and prior)

33% in audit (filed April 2011 and prior)

10% on appeal/reconsideration (filed April 2010 and prior)

4% in supervised recruitment

3% undergoing “employer existence review”

The government error reconsideration queue is “current.”

The denial rate for audited cases is approximately 55—60%, slightly higher than for FY 2010.

The numbers adjudicated in Q1 are quite low - possibly this is due to the continuing long processing times for PWD (also discussed in the document)


Prevailing wage determination for the PERM program are expected to be “current” (issued within 60 days) by the third week in January 2012.

Prevailing Wages

1. PW Redeterminations: We understand that the current processing time for a PW is about 60 days. Members have reported that it has taken up to six months to receive a decision on a PW redetermination request. At what point can members inquire about redetermination requests? What is the procedure for making such an inquiry?

During the last 45 days, DOL has undertaken a sustained effort to reduce the queue, and as noted in opening comments, DOL expects PWD processing for all programs to be “current” soon. “Historically, about 2% to 4% of applications fall outside of standard processing time. When this happens, the filer should e-mail the Help Desk.”

[vizcard]

Hi Guys- many places in the forms ask for:
1) I-94 number- this is the number that has already been printed on the i-94 card right? basically the preprinted number on the i-94 card that you picked up at the airport? and htis number changes everytime you have entered the country right? so we need to use the number on the most recent i-94 card received while entering?

2) A number or alien registration number- firstly is A number and Alien registration number the same? and where can i find this number? On my old EAD cards that i received for OPT, i see something called INS A number- is that the same? what should i enter here please.

Quick response will be greatly appreciated. I am trying to send these forms out asap.

Thanks,

1. Yes. The most recent I94 and status is what's needed.
2. They are the same and you get it with an approved I140. Check with your lawyers.

[gkjppp]

There are some interesting figures in this Department of Labor Office of Foreign Labor Certification Stakeholders Meeting—January 6, 2012 document (http://www.nafsa.org/uploadedFiles/DOL%20Stakeholder%20Notes%2020110106.pdf)



The numbers adjudicated in Q1 are quite low - possibly this is due to the continuing long processing times for PWD (also discussed in the document)

33% audit is huge %. DOL tighten perm processing.

[Rkmarthy]

It is an issue in the sense that it should either urs or RD. else when processing time comes and here date is not current there could be issues.
I have the same problem, i talked to my lawyer, he didnt say "nah its ok" they are going to talk to uscis.
I suggest you talk to ur lawyer.

All, Below is lawyer's reply. It doesn't seem like an issue. Good luck all.

They changed that process – under the law her PD and your PD are same as she is your dependent on the 485 that we had filed but few months back they have stopping putting the primary applicants PD on the beneficiary’s receipt notice.

[Spectator]

33% audit is huge %. DOL tighten perm processing.gkjppp,

Remember it is saying that this is the % of Pending cases.

Currently DOL has pending 21,000 ETA-9089s:

50% in analyst review (filed October 2011 and prior) = 10,500

33% in audit (filed April 2011 and prior) = 6,930

10% on appeal/reconsideration (filed April 2010 and prior) = 2,100

4% in supervised recruitment = 840

3% undergoing “employer existence review” = 630

Total = 21,000

That is not the same as saying 33% of ALL cases undergo audit, since others were Certified and are no longer pending. Also, the processing times for different categories in the pending numbers are very different, so the proportions are not equal.

[gkjppp]

gkjppp,

Remember it is saying that this is the % of Pending cases.

Currently DOL has pending 21,000 ETA-9089s:

50% in analyst review (filed October 2011 and prior) = 10,500

33% in audit (filed April 2011 and prior) = 6,930

10% on appeal/reconsideration (filed April 2010 and prior) = 2,100

4% in supervised recruitment = 840

3% undergoing “employer existence review” = 630

Total = 21,000

That is not the same as saying 33% of ALL cases undergo audit, since others were Certified and are no longer pending. Also, the processing times for different categories in the pending numbers are very different, so the proportions are not equal.

Spec, Thanks for the clarification. 33% of pending PERMS are in audit, make sense.Thanks once again for detailed explanation.

[Pdmar08]

All, Below is lawyer's reply. It doesn't seem like an issue. Good luck all.

They changed that process – under the law her PD and your PD are same as she is your dependent on the 485 that we had filed but few months back they have stopping putting the primary applicants PD on the beneficiary’s receipt notice.

RK,
thanks for the prompt update. Its always good to know the reason for things.

[dec2007]

RK,
thanks for the prompt update. Its always good to know the reason for things.

pdmar08,

we both have same RD, ND, and RD. My pd is dec 31, 07.

Pls let us know when you get your FP notice,it will give me a good idea of when to expect mine. I will update too if I get.

thanks

[03May07]

.....................l. Some of the real old-timers like imechanix, leo07, 03may2007 are waiting from the Oct batch. Looks like for our good friend Sogaddu will see his 485 approval before EAD / AP. Good luck to all.

Big T,
I guess you meant me ..3M...
I got RFE on 12 Jan...exactly 90 days after I got my receipt...63 days to get my EAD AP
Still waiting for physical RFE letter.
Lots of unforseen things happened in professional life as soon as news of being current was out, so kinda calmed down....went back to being lurker of this thread.
I wonder what's soggadu and Monica are upto these days..

[nishant2200]

Dude that's kind of good, ur file is being worked on. Respond to RFE promptly.

Read

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/AFM/HTML/AFM/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-1067.html

Sections on RFE n order of processing. Basically as soon as response to RFE, ur file shud be adjudicated.


Big T,
I guess you meant me ..3M...
I got RFE on 12 Jan...exactly 90 days after I got my receipt...63 days to get my EAD AP
Still waiting for physical RFE letter.
Lots of unforseen things happened in professional life as soon as news of being current was out, so kinda calmed down....went back to being lurker of this thread.
I wonder what's soggadu and Monica are upto these days..

[Pdmar08]

pdmar08,

we both have same RD, ND, and RD. My pd is dec 31, 07.

Pls let us know when you get your FP notice,it will give me a good idea of when to expect mine. I will update too if I get.

thanks

Sure I will let u know. I am seeing its taking about a month. Minimum.

[funnysummer2005]

Hey guys..sorry for posting on this forum. Moderators pls repsot to appropriate forum after it is answered. This gets most viewing, so answers will help me greatly.

When filing AOS forms:

1) In the EAD form- Questions 16- what have people put under Eligibility under 8 CFR 274a.12--- I have put (C) (9). i know there are different options for different people, but for most of us who are filing AOS based after being on H-1B, is this the corect one?

2) I have heard some conflicting view on A nummber. Yesterday on the forum someone said A# comes with approved I-20 and i see a number startign with A on my 1-797 notice, someone elseo n the forum mentioned that its the number of your previous EAD form which i had while on OPT. I have an INS A number on that which is different from the A number on I-797 notice. And now my lawyer said that A# will be assigned when AOS application will be admitted for processing and that I don't have one right now. Pls advice.

3) Who is the check payable to? USCIS or someone else?


Answers will be greatly appreciated. I don't want an RFE for a minor error.

Thanks,

[zenmaster]

Hey guys..sorry for posting on this forum. Moderators pls repsot to appropriate forum after it is answered. This gets most viewing, so answers will help me greatly.

When filing AOS forms:

1) In the EAD form- Questions 16- what have people put under Eligibility under 8 CFR 274a.12--- I have put (C) (9). i know there are different options for different people, but for most of us who are filing AOS based after being on H-1B, is this the corect one?

2) I have heard some conflicting view on A nummber. Yesterday on the forum someone said A# comes with approved I-20 and i see a number startign with A on my 1-797 notice, someone elseo n the forum mentioned that its the number of your previous EAD form which i had while on OPT. I have an INS A number on that which is different from the A number on I-797 notice. And now my lawyer said that A# will be assigned when AOS application will be admitted for processing and that I don't have one right now. Pls advice.

3) Who is the check payable to? USCIS or someone else?


Answers will be greatly appreciated. I don't want an RFE for a minor error.

Thanks,

1) Yes C9 is correct for H1b to AOS applicants.

2) A# is the USCIS way of tracking you in their system.
Each person is assigned an A# based on the application classification i.e Immigrant OR Non Immigrant/Dual Intent.
Therefore, the A# on you F1 OPT card and the A# for your 485 application will be different.
The A# number that you should be using for your 485 application/EAD-AP should be mentioned in the I-140 approval notice.

If you are confused about A#, it is OK to leave it blank.

BTW, this comes from my lawyer :)

3) US Depeartment of Homeland Security
Hope this helps.

[TeddyKoochu]

10K+ is a reasonable estimate for EB2I visas issued in Q1FY2012. Considering that the approvals are continuing in Q2FY2012 following QSP, the important question is - where is CO getting these visa numbers from??

Assuming a linear allocation, Q1 had 140/4 = 35K visas to give. 10K to EB2I would mean 30% of total EB visas to EB2I. This mark has never been reached before - its unprecedented and frankly unsustainable considering that EB1 has picked up pace recently. CO has discretion in setting up PD; however, actually issuing visas is a much serious deal and there is very little discretion involved. Perhaps a combination of EB2ROW demand decline and EB2IC demand destruction is the story here.

If we look at October there were probably 5-6K approvals in this month for the Apr 15 to the Jul 15th preadjudicated filers. Spillover could not be possibly granted in Oct itself as it may take time to generate. So my guess is CO sanctioned the use of the EB2 I/C annual cap in Oct itself. The rest of the movement can be attributed to spillover. Note that EB2 I/C approvals are coming by but still EB1 and EB2 ROW where Nov filers are being consistently approved.

[Kanmani]

Friends I have a question too

How about photographs of applicants ? with or without glasses ?
can anyone post the link ? The guy who is taking pictures says without glasses , got confused and cancelled .

[TeddyKoochu]

Big T,
I guess you meant me ..3M...
I got RFE on 12 Jan...exactly 90 days after I got my receipt...63 days to get my EAD AP
Still waiting for physical RFE letter.
Lots of unforseen things happened in professional life as soon as news of being current was out, so kinda calmed down....went back to being lurker of this thread.
I wonder what's soggadu and Monica are upto these days..

Yes I was referring to you. As Nishant said getting a RFE is not all that bad it means that they looked at your case and sent you a consolidated list of missing information. Approval should come by fast as soon as you can respond back. Good luck.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I have a question too

How about photographs of applicants ? with or without glasses ?
can anyone post the link ? The guy who is taking pictures says without glasses , got confused and cancelled .


Kanmani, without glasses, I had to get mine done again. Nishant had posted a USCIS link sometime back which does not bar glasses but I believe the issue is about the glare. Even in the FP appointment they insist that you take the glasses off.

[TeddyKoochu]

1) Yes C9 is correct for H1b to AOS applicants.

2) A# is the USCIS way of tracking you in their system.
Each person is assigned an A# based on the application classification i.e Immigrant OR Non Immigrant/Dual Intent.
Therefore, the A# on you F1 OPT card and the A# for your 485 application will be different.
The A# number that you should be using for your 485 application/EAD-AP should be mentioned in the I-140 approval notice.

If you are confused about A#, it is OK to leave it blank.

BTW, this comes from my lawyer :)

3) US Depeartment of Homeland Security
Hope this helps.

The cheques should be payable to US Department of Homeland Security, USCIS is under DHS.

[nishant2200]

Kanmani, without glasses, I had to get mine done again. Nishant had posted a USCIS link sometime back which does not bar glasses but I believe the issue is about the glare. Even in the FP appointment they insist that you take the glasses off.

Teddy is completely correct. DHS n DOS need to make this clear in their photo specifications.

Yes, no glasses.

[suninphx]

Teddy is completely correct. DHS n DOS need to make this clear in their photo specifications.

Yes, no glasses.

Not to add any confusion but my attorney seems to be just fine WITH glasses.

[mysati]

mysati,

I will try to answer some of these. Not sure I know everything.

#0 - H1B doesn't become instantly invalid. USCIS says that one needs to leave country immediately but in reality is quite lenient if the person finds another job.
#1 - If one had EAD and 485 is pending - then the person can legally stay until 485 is adjudicated. If employer withdraws 140 then 485 will of course be rejected. So post 180 days from 485 filing you are safe. But you MUST have a job in same or similar category the day 485 is adjudicated.
#2 Yes with EAD you can search another job/
#3 My understanding EAD is can be renewed without any proof of employment. But I may be wrong.
#4. No there shouldn't be any problems for naturalization if there was a layoff and you used EAD to gain another job in same / similar classification and then received you GC.
#5. Not travelling outside country would be a good idea. Staying on good terms with former employer would be good idea. As soon as you get a job use EAD and if possible transfer H1 and invoke AC21.

Hope this helps.

Thanks Q!
Thought I'd post them, as several of us are getting EAD now and are not sure how long it will take to get the GC.

Suninphx,
Feel free to move them to an appropriate thread.

[tackle]

Not to add any confusion but my attorney seems to be just fine WITH glasses.

From here (http://travel.state.gov/visa/visaphotoreq/visaphotoreq_5334.html):


If you normally wear glasses (without tinted lenses), a hearing device, or similar articles, they may be worn in your photo.
Dark glasses or glasses with tinted lenses are not acceptable.
Glare on glasses is not acceptable in your photo. Glare can be avoided with a slight downward tilt of the glasses or by removing the glasses or by turning off the camera flash.

I know that the link I pointed to is actually photo requirements for a visa. However, I'd think the same guidelines can be applied to the photos taken for GC process as well.

[sandeep11]

Better with out glasses. For FP as Teddy mentioned they insist without glasses. If they are prescription glasses and you have them all the while then USCIS is ok with the glasses. But if there is any glare or any other issue they reject it promptly. So IMO it is better with out glasses. I did the same.


Not to add any confusion but my attorney seems to be just fine WITH glasses.

[la_2002_ch]

Q,

THanks for the detailed reply. I have another question. What if the employer wants you to change the location of the job (same profile, same designation, same end client, same work but in a different state), before the 180 days of the I-485 filing? Will that pose an issue?


mysati,

I will try to answer some of these. Not sure I know everything.

#0 - H1B doesn't become instantly invalid. USCIS says that one needs to leave country immediately but in reality is quite lenient if the person finds another job.
#1 - If one had EAD and 485 is pending - then the person can legally stay until 485 is adjudicated. If employer withdraws 140 then 485 will of course be rejected. So post 180 days from 485 filing you are safe. But you MUST have a job in same or similar category the day 485 is adjudicated.
#2 Yes with EAD you can search another job/
#3 My understanding EAD is can be renewed without any proof of employment. But I may be wrong.
#4. No there shouldn't be any problems for naturalization if there was a layoff and you used EAD to gain another job in same / similar classification and then received you GC.
#5. Not travelling outside country would be a good idea. Staying on good terms with former employer would be good idea. As soon as you get a job use EAD and if possible transfer H1 and invoke AC21.

Hope this helps.

[nishant2200]

So photographs we send are not used anyways. :)

sun, they are used in case of EAD/AP when they are issued before FP. This is the case with many applicants, especially from NSC.

[suninphx]

sun, they are used in case of EAD/AP when they are issued before FP. This is the case with many applicants, especially from NSC.

Yeah thought so. Thanks Nishant.

BTW-when I searched online - there are some folks who submitted both (with and without glasses)

[nishant2200]

Yeah thought so. Thanks Nishant.

BTW-when I searched online - there are some folks who submitted both (with and without glasses)

:D

good lord, things one has to go through (bhag bhag dk bose). I wear contacts :)

[RMS_V13]

RFE Could be as simple as a Birth certificate clarification or a vaccination clarification. keep your chin up!


Big T,
I guess you meant me ..3M...
I got RFE on 12 Jan...exactly 90 days after I got my receipt...63 days to get my EAD AP
Still waiting for physical RFE letter.
Lots of unforseen things happened in professional life as soon as news of being current was out, so kinda calmed down....went back to being lurker of this thread.
I wonder what's soggadu and Monica are upto these days..

[needid]

Received EAD approval mails for me and my wife on 1/12/2012. I am a Nov filer with PD Oct 2007.
This is from TSC ( am i the first from TSC?). No cards received yet.

About a week back my attorney mailed AP of my daughter which was approved on Dec 15th. Not sure if EADs goes directly to attorney. No approval emails for AP. If EAD/AP is on same card, why don't they get approved go together?

[RMS_V13]

How do I know whether my app is being processed in NSC or TSC?
All I know is the Fedex package delivery location is Tempe Arizona?


Yeah thought so. Thanks Nishant.

BTW-when I searched online - there are some folks who submitted both (with and without glasses)

[qesehmk]

I guess its ok as long as the original intent for the move was a temporary one and the employer always wanted to move you back to the original loction.

Now it may so happen that after 180 days you can use AC21 (not employer). In that case I believe you don't have to file a new labor.

If the employer is not willing to say that hte move is temporary, then any such move prior to completion of 180 days since 485 filing would warrant a new labor.


Q,

THanks for the detailed reply. I have another question. What if the employer wants you to change the location of the job (same profile, same designation, same end client, same work but in a different state), before the 180 days of the I-485 filing? Will that pose an issue?

[la_2002_ch]

Thanks. This helps a lot.


I guess its ok as long as the original intent for the move was a temporary one and the employer always wanted to move you back to the original loction.

Now it may so happen that after 180 days you can use AC21 (not employer). In that case I believe you don't have to file a new labor.

If the employer is not willing to say that hte move is temporary, then any such move prior to completion of 180 days since 485 filing would warrant a new labor.

[krishnav]

RMS_V13,

You would know which center your application has been sent to, once you receive your receipts.
From what my attorney told me the applications first go to one single location and from there they are distributed randomly between NSC and TSC.


How do I know whether my app is being processed in NSC or TSC?
All I know is the Fedex package delivery location is Tempe Arizona?

[qesehmk]

good luck!


Thanks. This helps a lot.

[krishnav]

Hi needid,

I am also a Nov Filer (PD sep 2007) and my application went to TSC aswell. I received my EAD approval on 12/20/2011 and I think I have seen a couple of other Nov filers who got their EADs.


Received EAD approval mails for me and my wife on 1/12/2012. I am a Nov filer with PD Oct 2007.
This is from TSC ( am i the first from TSC?). No cards received yet.

About a week back my attorney mailed AP of my daughter which was approved on Dec 15th. Not sure if EADs goes directly to attorney. No approval emails for AP. If EAD/AP is on same card, why don't they get approved go together?

[needid]

TSC was good at FP notices , while NSC was at EADs, TSC catching up now.


Hi needid,

I am also a Nov Filer (PD sep 2007) and my application went to TSC aswell. I received my EAD approval on 12/20/2011 and I think I have seen a couple of other Nov filers who got their EADs.

[willywonka]

Here is a summary new filers maybe interested in. I posted the same on trackitt too.

How long does a 485 application normally take to get approved?
It is a known that applications take 4-6 months to get approved as long as the Priority Date (PD) for the Primary applicant is current. One exception to this is cases with an RFE (Request For Evidence), which take much longer.

Once you apply, does the PD matter?
USCIS processes the applications based on the Received Date (RD). However, once the application is documentarily qualified (DQ), the visa numbers are allotted by DOS based on PD. So, it is necessary that the PD remains current for you to receive the green card.

What is the best indicator to estimate how long your 485 application will take to be approved?
The #of applicants in front of you with in EB2I category is a great indicator. For all calculations, you can safely assume that everyone with a RD and PD earlier than yours will get their GC before you. There are some exceptions to the statement above which sometimes give an illusion of randomness to the order in which cases are approved. For example, the cases with an RFE take longer. Similarly, service center processing times vary and there could be a 1-2 month difference at times. The processing times are posted (ir)regularly, and you can check them out at the following link.
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do
Other minor exceptions are rare cases that get approved right after the first stage of FBI check that happens within 1-3 days after finger printing rather than after the full review from FBI which takes 60-90 days; cases with high profile recommendations, the philosophy of the primary officer/adjudicator assigned to a case, etc.

Where can I find out how many applicants are in front of me within EB2I?
USCIS posts the 485 inventory data (#of pending 485 applications by PD) approximately 3 times a year. The last time this data was posted was in Oct 2011 and you can use the link below to access it. The counts on this report include both Primary and Dependent applications.
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem...
The information in the Oct 2011 inventory report is outdated and it cannot now be used to calculate the currently pending applications that are in front of you. The next inventory report is anticipated to be posted sometime in Q2 of FY2012.

What does the 485 demand data indicate?
Demand data indicates the number of 485 applications that are DQ and are currently waiting to be assigned a visa number by the DOS. The DOS uses the demand data to decide the cutoff dates every month. For example, if you take spillover away from the picture, there cannot be more than 2803 EB2I approvals in a given year. If USCIS has 5000 EB2I cases that are DQ in a year, DOS orders these cases by PD in ascending order, assigns visa numbers to the first 2803 cases, and sets the cutoff date as the PD of the 2804th case.

What is spillover and how many additional visa numbers does EB2I get because of spillover?
Spillover is the number of unused visa numbers from EB1 and EB-ROW (ROW means Rest Of the World, i.e., countries other than India, China, and South Korea soon) that fall down to EB2I&C. USCIS has become more efficient at handling the spillover by allotting the spillover visa numbers quarterly rather than annually. So, you can expect EBI&C 485 approvals throughout FY2012 as opposed to seeing bulk approvals at the end of FY2012. Based on past approvals, EB2I got a spillover of ~19K in FY2010 and ~26K in FY2011. Based on TRACKITT data of the number of EB1 and EB2-ROW applications in the first quarter of FY 2012, the spillover to EB2I is expected to drop to around 20K for FY2012. Please note that this is purely an estimate because the actual EB1 and EB2-ROW demand for FY2012 is not known at this time.

How many EB3I applicants are porting to EB2I?
In FY2011, the number of applications that were ported to EB2I from EB3I successfully is widely believed to be around 4K. The number of such portings is expected to rise significantly in FY2012, with most such filings expected to occur in Q3 and Q4 of FY2012.

What is HR3012?
HR3012 is a bill introduced and cleared in the Congress in Nov 2011. This bill aims at removing the per-country quotas in the EB categories. If this bill becomes law, then the per-country quotas are removed and the EB 485 cases will be processed in a FIFO strategy within each sub-category. This means that each EB category, EB1, EB2, EB3, etc. will have one priority date each regardless of which country an applicant is from.

What is the current status of HR3012?
After it passed congress, this bill was sent to the Senate. It was blocked from going to a vote on the senate floor by Senator Chuck Grassley. Recently a sister bill was attached to HR3012 that deals with Irish immigration. These bills together have a support of 53 democratic senators and additional support from 7 republican senators is needed for a cloture if necessary to remove Gr"ass"ley's hold and a potential filibuster. The Democrats have put this bill on the senate calendar under rule XIV; meanwhile the Irish and Indian communities are lobbying hard to get the needed support. There will be more updates on this bill starting Jan 23rd 2012.

Are the cutoff dates going to go forward/Stall/retrogress?
Yes to all. Normally, it’s just the DQ demand that determines the cutoff dates. However at this point of time, the more relevant factor is the #of new EB2 I&C 485 filings. Please go through the following:
Safely assuming that the 2803 EB2I visas for FY2012 are already used in Q1 FY2012, the key for EB2I is quarterly spillover. Based on my estimated number of 20K spillover for FY2012, the quarterly allotment would be 5K. So, unless the DQ demand reaches 5K in Q2 of FY2012, the DQ demand data cannot be used to determine cutoff dates. According to the latest available DQ demand data as of Jan 5 2012, the DQ demand for EB2I is merely 95. It’s improbable that this would climb up to 5K by Feb 8 2012, the time the March bulletin will be released.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

So, what will be used for March bulletin is merely the number of new filings.
In FY2011, out of 140K EB visas, there were ~123K EB 485 approvals and 17K EB consular processing approvals. The number of new 485 applications in FY2011 was ~78K. This means that the USCIS had around 45K DQ EB2 cases who applied before FY2011 readily available in FY2011 to be allotted all the unused visa numbers. The USCIS Inventory as of Jan 2011 supports this.
For FY2012, if you assume the same number of new applications ~80K, that demand will not be sufficient to utilize the full 120K+ I485 visa numbers. Because, for FY2012 there aren't ~40K DQ EB2 cases readily available in queue like they were last year. To get a DQ EB2I&C demand of 40K by Sep 2012, USCIS needs at least 50K I485 applications for EB2I&C by end of March 2012. That is assuming a smooth approval rate of 90% and that it takes 6 months for an application to get DQ.
To generate 50K new EB2 application filings, USCIS has started a trial and error method - advance the cutoff dates, look at the #of new filings, if #of filings is high enough then stall the cutoff date and wait for DQ demand data to materialize slowly and at the point DQ demand crosses the quarterly spillover, cutoff dates can be retrogressed accordingly, but if the #of new filings is not high enough, then further forward the cutoff dates again. The final goal is to generate a DQ demand of nearly 40K for EB2I&C during or at least by the end of FY2012.

According to USCIS, as of Jan 05 2012, the #of new filings for EB2I&C has been extremely low, nowhere in the ball park of 50K (including Primary and Dependent applications). The following statements are just my opinion.
Q1 FY2012 plus January 2012 EB2 I&C applications alone won’t be enough to get close to the magic number of 50K. When all the Feb 2012 applications are in, then the number would definitely come close to 50K or even cross it. However, all Feb filings won’t show up in the radar by the time March bulletin is released. So, for March 2012 bulletin, I believe the cutoff dates are set to advance one last time in FY 2012. How much they advance is up to the discretion of the CO. My guess is it could be 3 months or at most 6 months. In April and May bulletins, the cutoff dates are going to stall. In June bulletin, the dates are going to retrogress by about 2 years.

Since the latest available inventory data is outdated, is there a way to calculate or predict what the current pending 485 inventory is?
It is possible to estimate the number of EB2I approvals between Oct 2011 and Current Date based on the EB2I DQ demand currently available, DQ demand at the beginning of Oct 2011, newly filed EB2I 485 approval trend on TRACKITT, etc. It is widely believed that around 8-9K EB2I 485 applications have been approved so far in FY2012 (starting Oct 2011).
There are several people who are estimating the potential number of new 485 EB2I filings beginning FY2012 based on factors such as how many PERM approvals were in the periods that are now newly current, I140 approval rate, number of dependents, demand destruction (i.e., PERM approvals that didn't lead to 485 filing because they lost jobs in 2008 or moved to a different employer, etc.), people who are eligible but not filing for 485 in anticipation of getting married first before filing, etc. etc. I am just going to be content with believing that the number of new filings so far for EB2I&C are significantly lower than 50K as of Jan 05 2012 and this number is not going to reach/cross 50K before the end of February 2012.

Good Luck to All!!!

[dexter2010]

Wow willywoka, nice summary, helped answer many of my questions.

[gkjppp]

willywonka,
Great analysis, Spillover to EB2 can be added from EB4 and EB5 as well<Guru's can confirm>. I like your guessing on March bulletin 3 to 6 months advance.

[Osaka001]

willywonka,
Great analysis, Spillover to EB2 can be added from EB4 and EB5 as well<Guru's can confirm>. I like your guessing on March bulletin 3 to 6 months advance.

Hi gk,
I may be too optimistic for FY'12 , the spill over for EB2 would be 8K from EB5/4 + 20K EB1 + 10K from EB2 RoW ~ 38K.

[mesan123]

willywonka,
nice summary....
what will be the wait time for people in end of 2010 (or) people in 2011. i mean the wait time after the march bulletion. as most of the gurus think this will be the last movement if it happens and then the date will stall/retrogress in future bulletion.

how long will the people have to wait ...will it be3-4 years or more....

will it repeat like 2007 fiasco where people had to wait for more than 4 years to become current(after dates became current once)

[gkjppp]

Hi gk,
I may be too optimistic for FY'12 , the spill over for EB2 would be 8K from EB5/4 + 20K EB1 + 10K from EB2 RoW ~ 38K.

if this becomes true,almost all 2008 folks will get their GC's before Oct 2012. 20K from EB1 might not be possible.

[gkjppp]

willywonka,
nice summary....
what will be the wait time for people in end of 2010 (or) people in 2011. i mean the wait time after the march bulletion. as most of the gurus think this will be the last movement if it happens and then the date will stall/retrogress in future bulletion.

how long will the people have to wait ...will it be3-4 years or more....

will it repeat like 2007 fiasco where people had to wait for more than 4 years to become current(after dates became current once)
mesan123, it will not take 4 years to move further, THE WORST case it moves again in Oct 2014< thats why my signature says now or in 2014>, ie 2 years 8 months, chances are high it will move again between Oct - Dec 2013.by Jan 1st 2010, we got around 57K pipeline which needs to be adjudicated,Spillover for 2012 and 2013 definetely crosses 40K,as of now CO is using Quarterly spillover, so he has to move dates sometime between Oct to Dec 2013.

[vgraj1]

Here is a summary new filers maybe interested in. I posted the same on trackitt too.

Good Luck to All!!!

Fabulous analysis willywonka, thanks! Regarding I-485 inventory data, there are total pending I-485 cases of about 26K at Oct. 2011 end with USCIS; this is far below the total quota of 140K minus 15% for NVC cases. Added to this, the extremely low number of 'documentarily qualified' cases for EB2 so far, and considering the recession in 2008 & 9 which caused a drop in EB2 cases, a huge retrogression in June 2012 is unlikely. And even if there is a significant retrogression in June 2012, the PD may again move rapidly in FY 2013. What are your thoughts?

[geterdone]

I have a question- say my PD is Dec 09 and I get my EAD in May of this year, i guess it will be valid for 1 yr. Then next year when I have to renew if my date is not current due to retrogression can i still renew my EAD?

[veni001]

I have a question- say my PD is Dec 09 and I get my EAD in May of this year, i guess it will be valid for 1 yr. Then next year when I have to renew if my date is not current due to retrogression can i still renew my EAD?

geterdone,

Yes, you can renew your EAD until you get "Decision" on your 485.

[letmesee]

I know a few of my colleagues (4 ppl) who became current in December and the lawyers haven't filed their 485 yet.. They are just too slow saying they hate this rapid movement since it's a flood of applications for them to file.
Also I know one more guy whose pd is current but hasn't filed since he moved to another company and needs to restart the process. Looks like there may be more cases like these which would help the date movement.

[Gclongwait]

I know a few of my colleagues (4 ppl) who became current in December and the lawyers haven't filed their 485 yet.. They are just too slow saying they hate this rapid movement since it's a flood of applications for them to file.
Also I know one more guy whose pd is current but hasn't filed since he moved to another company and needs to restart the process. Looks like there may be more cases like these which would help the date movement.

WHAT!!! that's crazy, I feel for them. I dont think there will be too many people like that. December wasn't even rapid movement. It was only 4.5 months.