EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[RRRRRR]

Thanks Kanmani,

My question is more towards the Legal status/Unauthorized employment for ~6 month period(July 2008 to January 2009), when i left company A-> Joined company B with transfer receipt notice->Joined company C with another transfer receipt notice-> Went back to Company A-> and got H1Extension approved.

Hi Happyimmmigrant,

How long you were working with Company B and C after the rejection and what was the gap once you switched from Company B to C and then to Company A. If you were working with B & C after the denials then that might be unauthorized employment.

My understanding is you can work on the receipts and that's what the Law although you cannot work once you are denied. I have never worked on the receipts so i am not sure if my understanding is correct. Although i will recommend that you get all the receipts/rejections from Company B & C as it will help you in terms of providing explanations.

I am sure you will be speaking to a lawyer. Wish you all the best and let us know how it goes. Thanks

[Kanmani]

Source : Murthy Law firm

Chat User : Murthy Madam, I started working for the new employer with the H1B transfer receipt number. What are my options if this transfer is denied?

Attorney Murthy : One who starts work based on filing a new H1B petition, per USCIS / INS policy memos and letter opinions, is allowed to return to work for the earlier employer on the prior H1B petition approval if the earlier employer has not revoked that earlier H1B petition and that earlier employer is still willing to offer the person the earlier job. The other alternative when one has failed to maintain status in the U.S. is for the person to file another H1B with a third employer, but then the individual has to travel abroad and reenter on H1B status with the latest H1B approval notice if the earlier visa stamp has not expired in the PP. In the alternative, one must apply for a new visa stamp from abroad and show the latest H1B approval notice at the port of entry to obtain a new I-94 card showing H1B status with the correct expiration date.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
245(K) has the following provision:-
The adjudicator must only examine the period from the date of the alien’s last lawful admission to the United States and must not count violations that occurred before the alien’s last lawful admission.
Have you ever depart USA and entered on valid visa stamp between January 2009 to till date ? If not please try to do so to reset your clock , needless to say pls consult an attorney before filing I-485




Thanks Kanmani,

My question is more towards the Legal status/Unauthorized employment for ~6 month period(July 2008 to January 2009), when i left company A-> Joined company B with transfer receipt notice->Joined company C with another transfer receipt notice-> Went back to Company A-> and got H1Extension approved.

[happyimmigrant]

Kanmani,
I have never exited and reentered USA between January 2009 & till date.

By the way from the quote from Murthy's Chat, let me know what i understand is correct.

if my H1 transfer is denied to Company B & C even though i worked for them untill the denial(I never worked post denial) and if Company A did not revoke my H1, I am not out of status/ unauthorized employment(because i ended up going back to company A)?

[happyimmigrant]

RRRRRR:
I did not work for company C after denial(worked only through October 2008 to december 30 2008)
for company B i do not know when the automatic denial is triggred because of not answering RFE, but i did work till early september2008.

[Kanmani]

Happyimmigrant

My understanding is same as yours .
Eventhen if there is any RFE, experienced attorneys could reply with quoting all clause and subdivisions of immigration laws .
Choose a best immigration attorney for filing I-485 . All the best.

[iatiam]

Happy, please consult an attorney ASAP. None of us are lawyers and your case seems complicated.

[kd2008]

Spec, Q, Veni, Teddy et al, Would it be possible to look at the PERM databases for cases filed from Aug. 2007 onwards and check off large companies that are no more like Bear Sterns, Lehman etc., eliminate those applications and see if we can construct a demand destruction pattern? of course doing it for IT consulting companies will be difficult. But lets see if we can even see a pattern to begin with.

[eb2visa]

Gurus,

I am new to this forum. Is there any chance to get eb2 Aug-31-2009 in next 2 months. I have to take some job decisions based on this.

Thank you in advance...

[Kanmani]

kd
below is the total approved perms / IC total
LEHMAN BROTHERS INC
2007- 75( IC -26 )
2008- 18( IC -9 )
2009 - 40( IC -30 )

BEAR STEARNS & CO INC

2007 - 20( IC -10 )
2008 - 4 ( IC -4 )
2009 - 5 ( IC -3 )

[kd2008]

kd
below is the total approved perms / IC total
LEHMAN BROTHERS INC
2007- 75( IC -26 )
2008- 18( IC -9 )
2009 - 40( IC -30 )

BEAR STEARNS & CO INC

2007 - 20( IC -10 )
2008 - 4 ( IC -4 )
2009 - 5 ( IC -3 )

Thanks, Kanmani!

So it seems that PERMs were filed by companies in relatively good standing and those from financially weak were few. Seems logical considering how expensive PERM process is. Sigh! How to understand this demand destruction process?

May be each of us can ask our attorneys about the volume of applications they see for 2008 cases. Do they see all their clients filing I-485? If demand is "low," can they put a percentage to it? Crowd-sourcing is the only way I see forward. It can never be definitive or accurate - qualitative at best. But lets try that.

[venkat]

Sorry for posting this here but I don't see a relevant thread. As part of 485 filing, do i need to complete one G-1145 for 485, EAD and AP all together
OR
i need to complete separate G-1145 for each one of them.

[RRRRRR]

RRRRRR:
I did not work for company C after denial(worked only through October 2008 to december 30 2008)
for company B i do not know when the automatic denial is triggred because of not answering RFE, but i did work till early september2008.

I think you are ok with company C but in case of Company B since a RFE came you might have to look into the fact that if RFE needs to be responded within certain number of days before the case is considered abandoned. You may want to contact a good attorney and let us know how your case progresses

Good Luck

[self.coach]

Gurus,

I am new to this forum. Is there any chance to get eb2 Aug-31-2009 in next 2 months. I have to take some job decisions based on this.

Thank you in advance...

I am Aug 2009 as well and I am hopeful we will be current, but have 'prepared' myself if they move the dates only till April. Frankly it all depends on how aggressive CO wants to be to estimate the demand......but the movement could be anywhere between Jan 31 2009 to Jan 2010.

[iatiam]

Kd, those were the big firms that we know of. There were several other which went under. Also those firms which took TARP money could not hire people on a visa. This might also have an effect in future PERM FILINGS.

[RRRRRR]

Sorry for posting this here but I don't see a relevant thread. As part of 485 filing, do i need to complete one G-1145 for 485, EAD and AP all together
OR
i need to complete separate G-1145 for each one of them.

Below extract is from the USCIS Website and to me it looks like you only need one 1145.

Special Instructions :

If you are submitting multiple immigration forms for one applicant, clip a completed form G-1145 to the front of the first immigration form of the package. You will receive a separate e-mail and/or text message for each accepted immigration form.

For representatives who file multiple unrelated immigration forms in one envelope, and who want their clients to receive e-Notification, clip a completed form G-1145 for each applicant to the front of their immigration forms package. One e-mail and/or text message will be sent per accepted immigration form, to the person seeking the benefit(s) (representatives are not copied).

[nishant2200]

Nishant,

I noticed one EB2I case approval updated on trackitt with RD 10/14/2011.


Nishant, Veni & All following are the current approvals of Oct Filers on Trackitt, finally new 485 approvals have started.
Starchaser, Abracadabra - NSC PWMB
Superman123 (Spouse only) - TSC
I believe that the approvals especially for Oct filers should pick up next month once fresh numbers for the next quarter are being allocated and current time being holiday season a lot of people maybe on vacation (Its noteworthy that EAD / AP approvals are coming fast). There have been atleast 10K approvals for the Jul 2007 / Pre Oct 01 filers this year. On Trackitt there are a good number of PWMB cases from Aug that have seen approvals. The Oct filers count should be between 2.5 – 3K hopefully most of them will get approved next month; even RD / ND will be significant besides PD.


Veni, Teddy, this was very important to know. This shows there is "intent" to approve these cases, not just hold them in pre-adjudicated phase. As far as status inquiries, congress inquiries etc goes, such early inquiries can be easily brushed off by saying processing times, or extended review, etc.

I believe QSP is in full flow, and this looks like CO's strategy moving forward. He seems to want to be one step ahead of the curve. In a classical Queueing data structure mechanism, he is enqueing enough inventory, and at the same dequeing using QSP. The Queue however can only be of a certain size at one time, if it starts getting too big, time to stop. This certain size, we don't know what is in CO's mind, what he is comfortable with.

When the pace of dequeing slows down due to either:
a. Increase in current demand of EB1, EB2 ROW, hence less QSP.
b. Increase in EB2IC demand being enqueued (for eg: due to very aggressive movements like the 9.5 month movement, or higher than expected density in certain date periods).
c. 140 backlog reduction spikes
At that time, EB2IC shall start creeping up in DD, and retrogression may occur.

I feel that current strategy by CO is the best that can be for EB2IC. Also note that I do not believe he uses EB4 or EB5 for any QSP, and the last Q4 of the FY, may lead to a further bonus numbers for us from any SO from these guys.

[zenmaster]

As seen on: http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/12/february-2012-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

CM_USNonImmigrants
Fellows update from attorney friend:

"They expect visa bulletin to see some neat movement for EB2-IC in February. I do not understand his definition of "neat" but it can be anywhere from 4-5 month assuming that new definition for "significant" would be 9.5 months. His firm will be filing lot of applications in January (number he thought was around 450-600). He said that attorneys are working hard this winter break, but due to holidays and vacation they do not expect to file many cases in first week of January. His presumption is that it will be similar at other firms and hence January filings will have not any binding on movement for February visa bulletin. He still believe retrogression will happen not before April-May bulletin.

EB3 category they expect at least two weeks movement."

CM - As usual word of advice; take it with grain of salt.

Thanks nishantbhai !
I need further 6 months movement to get covered....
This is gonna be touch and go...
cow u cow u... holy cow u...
why this kolaveri di.... :(

[imdeng]

Another anecdotal example - I know of a couple people in a top US based business consulting company who internally transferred to UK since the company refused to carry ANY GC applications any further in 2009 - even those with approved PERM. They just washed their hands off the entire GC process through one umbrella memo that essentially said that the company will not sponsor any more GCs. They continue to hire H1Bs out of Business Schools but don't sponsor GCs for them.

Kd, those were the big firms that we know of. There were several other which went under. Also those firms which took TARP money could not hire people on a visa. This might also have an effect in future PERM FILINGS.

[imdeng]

I wonder whether it is the same CO who is handling the current PD movement - his recent behavior is completely at odds with his long history of ultra-conservative decision making. It all adds up to good news for EB2IC though - so not complaining at all.

Veni, Teddy, this was very important to know. This shows there is "intent" to approve these cases, not just hold them in pre-adjudicated phase.

[Spectator]

Hello All,

Is there a separate thread where the approvals/Receipts are being tracked?? If yes, could someone point me there.
If not, does any one know what was the case with last known PD that received their Green Card. I am just trying to figure out, if at all retrogression happens (hopefully not), where the dates would be moved to.

Am I assuming wrong when I say if a GC was approved for a PD in Aug 2007, dates will not retrogress beyond Aug 2007 (for eg to Jun 2007).
Please someone clarify.
Thanks.


Hi All,

Can anyone tell me what was the latest PD for which a GC was approved. Just trying to figure out if at all any Retrogression happens, what could be the possible date as my PD is in Sept 2007.

Thanks.krishnav,

The general level of approvals from Trackitt are being tracked in this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?181-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2012-vs.-FY2011).

Generally, the latest EB2-I Primary approval on Trackitt has a PD of July 31, 2007.

There is one outlier that shows a PD of December 7, 2007 but it is not a "clean" case. Until we see many more approvals with later dates, I don't put much store by that date.

When retrogression happens, it should not retrogress to a date earlier than those cases that were receiving approvals, unless there is a big backlog of earlier cases.

I don't think we are at that stage for a PD of September 2007 yet. Having said that, I think sufficient visas will probably be available in Q2 so that September 2007 would be safe from retrogression, when it is applied.

[Gclongwait]

Hey,

Anybody here who only got I485 notices, no EAD/AP or got them later? Did they come on the same day for everybody.

[krishnav]

Thank you very much Spec. As always..very clear and helpful.


krishnav,

The general level of approvals from Trackitt are being tracked in this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?181-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2012-vs.-FY2011).

Generally, the latest EB2-I Primary approval on Trackitt has a PD of July 31, 2007.

There is one outlier that shows a PD of December 7, 2007 but it is not a "clean" case. Until we see many more approvals with later dates, I don't put much store by that date.

When retrogression happens, it should not retrogress to a date earlier than those cases that were receiving approvals, unless there is a big backlog of earlier cases.

I don't think we are at that stage for a PD of September 2007 yet. Having said that, I think sufficient visas will probably be available in Q2 so that September 2007 would be safe from retrogression, when it is applied.

[RRRRRR]

Hey,

Anybody here who only got I485 notices, no EAD/AP or got them later? Did they come on the same day for everybody.

Hi GCLongwait,

Post 485 thread has answer to your query and it has more information which will help you. Thanks

[pdmay2008]

Quick question. I have mailed my 485 packet today 12/30/2011 to USCIS in USPS express mail. I have checked no delivery on week end or holiday, so that it does not get delivered tomorrow 12/31. Also I have written clearly on the packet no week end delivery.

I want it to delivered on 1/3/2012 which is Tuesday as USCIS has holiday on 1/2/2012.

Hope it gets delivered on 1/3/2012. Any one has any experience on Saturday delivery. if we mention it not to deliver some times USPS makes an attempt to delivery. I am worried about that.

[vizcard]

Quick question. I have mailed my 485 packet today 12/30/2011 to USCIS in USPS express mail. I have checked no delivery on week end or holiday, so that it does not get delivered tomorrow 12/31. Also I have written clearly on the packet no week end delivery.

I want it to delivered on 1/3/2012 which is Tuesday as USCIS has holiday on 1/2/2012.

Hope it gets delivered on 1/3/2012. Any one has any experience on Saturday delivery. if we mention it not to deliver some times USPS makes an attempt to delivery. I am worried about that.

It shouldn't be a problem. Although you could have just put it in the mail on Monday 1/2/12 to avoid this situation .. another day wouldn't make a difference.

[eb2visa]

Some interesting link:

Form I-140 Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker Performance Data by Class and Beneficiary Country of Birth
This quarterly report shows Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker performance data for consular-processed I-140s and does not include any associated dependents. The number of cases approved are displayed by class and beneficiary country of birth.

PDF:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/I-140-data-2011-june.pdf

CSV:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/I-140-data-2011-june.csv

[eb2visa]

Data on Individual Applications and Petitions

Data as of September 30, 2011
Published Novemberr 29, 2011

This report provides the total number of receipts and approvals, by quarter,
for all applications and petition form types submitted to USCIS for adjudication.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.pdf

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.csv

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20(Left%20Nav%20Parents)/About%20Us%20-%202nd%20Level/fy09q3backlog.pdf


http://www.governmentattic.org/4docs/USCIS-CongRpts_2008-2010.pdf

[eb2visa]

Some interesting chart, look for EB1 and EB2 not including NIV

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf

[suninphx]

Some interesting chart, look for EB1 and EB2 not including NIV

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf

Thank you. If its accurate(or near accurate) that's going to help a lot !

[eb2visa]

This is just released today and from DHS website. 100% accurate, unless DHS - Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman shows something wrong :)

[suninphx]

Thank you. If its accurate(or near accurate) that's going to help a lot !

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf

Quick glance here are year wise(not sure if it FY or CY) EB2 I140 receipts for all countries (not including NIW):

2007- 60000 +
2008 - 30000
2009 - 17000
2010 - 35000
2011(Q1 & Q2) - 35000

[suninphx]

This is just released today and from DHS website. 100% accurate, unless DHS - Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman shows something wrong :)


True -- :)

[eb2visa]

One more :

I-485 Approval and Pending inventory details:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_2011-oct.pdf


Data as of October 31, 2011
Published December 29, 2011

[eb2visa]

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.pdf

[manubhai]

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf

Quick glance here are year wise(not sure if it FY or CY) EB2 I140 receipts for all countries (not including NIW):

2007- 60000 +
2008 - 30000
2009 - 17000
2010 - 35000
2011(Q1 & Q2) - 35000

What am I missing here??

Isn't this like "REALLY" great news for Eb2 2009 and early 2010 people?

Spec? Gurus?

[eb2visa]

Look at the I-485 inventory details from my post.

[eb2visa]

I-485


Approval- 29,969 Denials- 7,559 Pending -2,411

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_2011-oct.pdf

[eb2visa]

I-485

Data as of October 31, 2011
Published December 29, 2011

Approval- 29,969 Denials-7,559 Pending-2,411

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_2011-oct.pdf

[suninphx]

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf

Quick glance here are year wise(not sure if it FY or CY) EB2 I140 receipts for all countries (not including NIW):

2007- 60000 +
2008 - 30000
2009 - 17000
2010 - 35000
2011(Q1 & Q2) - 35000

Of these around 3-3.5k/year are porting cases.

[eb2visa]

Did you looked at the 485 approval details from above link, it is very interesting, they didn't have much pending cases as of Oct 31st. I think thats why this big jump. and if we see the stats, around 30,000 are approved for 2011+oct. Seems to be there could be a big jump next month.

[eb2visa]

Please look at the 485 links too, it has more exiting details... :)

[suninphx]

eb2 visa thanks for the link



Look at the numbers yay!!!!

Kanmani - :)

As many of 2008 and 2009 PERM cases were getting approved i subsequent FY with quite delay (in 2009 and 2010)....many 2009 cases are in FY2010 numbers.
I am trying to plot this on Spec's PERM data (with assumption of 2 month lag in PERM approval and I140 filing)...have not got anything concrete yet. May be lets wait for Spec's input.

[dorais]

Thanks for the links.

I can't make sense of the I485 numbers. It says 29,969 approvals for both 2010 & 2011. Is this for all EB1/2/3 for all countries? If yes, it seems to be too low.

I-140 numbers make sense. 30k approvals for 2008 translates to 2500 perms/month. Number of I-140 approvals in 2009 is only 17000, there could be some good movement int he next couple of bulletins. Keeping fingers crossed!


I-485


Approval- 29,969 Denials- 7,559 Pending -2,411

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_2011-oct.pdf

[rdsingh79]

This data is only for USCIS field offices. This does not include case majority of cases handled by service centers (TSC and NSC).


I-485

Data as of October 31, 2011
Published December 29, 2011

Approval- 29,969 Denials-7,559 Pending-2,411

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_2011-oct.pdf

[eb2visa]

I think the I-485 numbers doesn't include ROW...

This is the old link and it also presents the same numbers for 2010. This has 2009 approval details too.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_2011-sep.pdf

[suninphx]

Thanks for the links.

I can't make sense of the I485 numbers. It says 29,969 approvals for both 2010 & 2011. Is this for all EB1/2/3 for all countries? If yes, it seems to be too low.

I-140 numbers make sense. 30k approvals for 2008 translates to 2500 perms/month. Number of I-140 approvals in 2009 is only 17000, there could be some good movement int he next couple of bulletins. Keeping fingers crossed!

That's not entirely true. These are receipt data. These 30000 would include some of 2008 plus earlier years data too.

[eb2visa]

If these includes number from earlier years, it will be Great News, as they might have already take care

[dorais]

You are on the right track. If we take this I140 data and subtract the average processing times (for both perm and I140) for each year, we would get some approximation on perm conversion.


That's not entirely true. These are receipt data. These 30000 would include some of 2008 plus earlier years data too.

[suninphx]

Actually these are approval data. But you are on the right track. If we take this I140 data and subtract the average processing times (for both perm and I140) for each year, we would get some approximation on perm conversion.

dorais- I am referring to this link
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf

On page 7 it talks about receipt data not approvals.

[eb2visa]

Approval rates are almost 100%

[dorais]

Got it. The numbers are for filing receipts.


dorais- I am referring to this link
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf

On page 7 it talks about receipt data not approvals.

[vizcard]

As rdsingh pointed out, the 485 data is ONLY field offices and not the service centers where most of the EB cases go.

[veni001]

I-485

Approval- 29,969 Denials- 7,559 Pending -2,411

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_2011-oct.pdf


This data is only for USCIS field offices. This does not include case majority of cases handled by service centers (TSC and NSC).


As rdsingh pointed out, the 485 data is ONLY field offices and not the service centers where most of the EB cases go.

vizcard; rdsingh,

That's correct. In addition field office numbers include all kinds of adjustment applications, not just EB.

[Kanmani]

Suninphx

As a raw data, we can interpret
2008 is 50% of 2007
2009 is 28% of 2007
2010 is 58% of 2007
We have 2007 data available ,could it be that much record low ? I doubt something is missing .
Lets wait for Spec .

[suninphx]

Suninphx

As a raw data, we can interpret
2008 is 50% of 2007
2009 is 28% of 2007
2010 is 58% of 2007
We have 2007 data available ,could it be that much record low ? I doubt something is missing .
Lets wait for Spec .

Can you please ealaborate how you arrived at these %?

[Kanmani]

suninphx
very simply derived from your numbers from yesterday's post
2007- 60000 +
2008 - 30000
2009 - 17000
2010 - 35000

[suninphx]

suninphx
very simply derived from your numbers from yesterday's post
2007- 60000 +
2008 - 30000
2009 - 17000
2010 - 35000

Here is how I am calculating. To keep our calculations simple lets assume that receipts of FY 2008, 2009, 2010 cover the PDs of Aug 2007- Dec 2009.

So that gives us a total of 82000.
Add 5000 to even out the range so that gives us 92000
With 90% approval rate we get 82800. Lets round figure it to 83000

From Spec' data for period of Aug 2007- Dec 2009 we have total ROW PERM count of 76878 (~ 77000)

Assuming 60% of those are EB2 gives us 46200

So that leaves us approximate EB2IC count of (83000- 46200) = 36800
If we deduct around 9k - 10 K porting case it gives us EB2IC in range of 25-27 K. This number looks more on optimistic side.

Note: Also we have to still deduct cases for double filings (husband / wife both filing), multiple filings etc. But lets not go that far yet.

So thats my take.

[qesehmk]

Dear Friends,

As the year closes in, let me take the opportunity to thank ALL of you for your active and meaningful participation. Your participation is what has helped this forum grow into probably the most useful and go-to-place for EB predictions today. And more important that pageviews etc ... your participation is what has kept this forum clean & cooperative.

I want to thank the contributors - and its very difficult to name all - but you know who they are. Their tireless and laser focus on OBJECTIVE INFORMATION helps us keep grounded and not engage in irrational fear or exuberance. I also want to thank the Advocacy thread and its "Advocates" who have really brought all of us great information, advocacy and hope. I also want to thank our occasional "poet-at-heart-contributors"! As we say again and again ... GC shouldnt be the destination ... it could only be a means to what one wants to do in life. Finally ... and certainly a key note of thanks goes to our moderators who keep this forum clean of SPAM. Trust me - even I do not know - when these moderators clean up a SPAM posting!! We should really thank these moderators. Another thing that we should be proud of is that these moderators safeguard everybody's right to post. Only in extreme situations have they or me deleted a post. So lets keep it that way. It's important that everybody gets an opportunity to bring forth a piece of information or voice their opinion.

Finally some statistics and new plans for next year:

This year this blog generated 1.8M views. This generated roughly 1500 USD ad revenue. Of which we donated slightly over 1000. The rest was used to maintain this infrastructure.

Next year we plan to release a new tool "Self-Service-Forecasting-Tool (SSFT)". This tool will allow individuals to forecast time to GC themselves. Expect to hear from me sometime in Q1 of next year.

Once again ... thanks a ton for your participation. I wish you all, your families and your children a very happy prosperous and healthy new year!! Lets hope HR3012 goes through in 2012. Let your careers flourish and you discover new things and happiness. As far as this forum is considered -- let good thoughts come to us from all directions and we spread them in all directions in return :) All the best!

p.s. - Today we donated an additional $121 for this month to Ashraya Initiative. Those interested .... pls check out ... http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=17402#post17402

[eb2visa]

These numbers are not including national interest waiver

2007 has 60,000 cases, are we sure, are we thinking correctly? Are these only belongs to the respective years. I think we may just need to remove more than one submission from the same employee and wife and husband double submission and abandoned ones. Please correct me...

[suninphx]

These numbers are not including national interest waiver

2007 has 60,000 cases, are we sure, are we thinking correctly? Are these only belongs to the respective years. I think we may just need to remove more than one submission from the same employee and wife and husband double submission and abandoned ones. Please correct me...
IMO - they do not belong to respective years.

[jackbrown_890]

Happy New Year!!!

[eb2visa]

EB1 I-140 stats

http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/EB-1-2010-2011-Statistics.pdf

[eb2visa]

Look at
Applications for Immigration Benefits - <Month Year> Monthly Chart
This will give an idea of how many I-485's approved each year.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=34d7898cf7927210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=34d7898cf7927210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

[devi_pd]

The I-485 receipt volume indicates there are 1,100 EB2I applications in October. This is the difference between Sep and Oct 2011 receipts. The PWMB demand seems significant. There is no demand destruction here. When the numbers for the next month come out we'll get a better understanding of the EB2I demand post July 2007.

[rdsingh79]

Devi_pd,
what data are you referring to deduce this?


The I-485 receipt volume indicates there are 1,100 EB2I applications in October. This is the difference between Sep and Oct 2011 receipts. The PWMB demand seems significant. There is no demand destruction here. When the numbers for the next month come out we'll get a better understanding of the EB2I demand post July 2007.

[suninphx]

Devi_pd,
what data are you referring to deduce this?

Devi_pd,
Also elaborate on why you say there is no DD.

[devi_pd]

I am looking at the 485 receipts for Sep 2011 and Oct 2011 from the link provided by eb2visa.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=34d7898cf7927210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=34d7898cf7927210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

I was assuming that the difference in volume between the two months can be attributed to EB2I cases with data Apr-Jul 2007 that were filed in Oct 2011. The difference in 1,100. If demand destruction were true, this number should be very small since most people with PDs in that range filed during Jul-Aug 2007.

[suninphx]

I am looking at the 485 receipts for Sep 2011 and Oct 2011 from the link provided by eb2visa.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=34d7898cf7927210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=34d7898cf7927210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD


I was assuming that the difference in volume between the two months can be attributed to EB2I cases with data Apr-Jul 2007 that were filed in Oct 2011. The difference in 1,100. If demand destruction were true, this number should be very small since most people with PDs in that range filed during Jul-Aug 2007.
I am not sure if the number which you arrived at is correct. And even if it was correct it is much lower than estimated figure on this forum which is 2500-3000.

[suninphx]

True that. Discussion is the main thing. To start with what do you think about this article from CM on the data?

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/12/eb2-india-china-i-140-demand-yearly.html

Thanks for this. If I am reading it right then CM is suggesting around 26k I140 demand for PD 2008 and PD 2009. If you look at my post #3696 I have similar number of 25k -27k of I140 demand but thats for period of Aug 07 -Dec 09. And CM is right - there may be some DD on top of this. Let me know whats your take on this data.

[GhostWriter]

Another interesting thing to note is that I140 approval rate for EB2-I is close to 100% from his post. We have been assuming 80% so this will probably compensate for our underestimating the DD to some extent if it is higher.


Thanks for this. If I am reading it right then CM is suggesting around 26k I140 demand for PD 2008 and PD 2009. If you look at my post #3696 I have similar number of 25k -27k of I140 demand but thats for period of Aug 07 -Dec 09. And CM is right - there may be some DD on top of this. Let me know whats your take on this data.

[suninphx]

Another interesting thing to note is that I140 approval rate for EB2-I is close to 100% from his post. We have been assuming 80% so this will probably compensate for our underestimating the DD to some extent if it is higher.

Yeah that is really interesting. From graph it's more of 95% for years 2008 and 2009 and then becoming almost 100% later.

[shaumack]

Here is how I am calculating. To keep our calculations simple lets assume that receipts of FY 2008, 2009, 2010 cover the PDs of Aug 2007- Dec 2009.

So that gives us a total of 82000.
Add 5000 to even out the range so that gives us 92000
With 90% approval rate we get 82800. Lets round figure it to 83000

From Spec' data for period of Aug 2007- Dec 2009 we have total ROW PERM count of 76878 (~ 77000)

Assuming 60% of those are EB2 gives us 46200

So that leaves us approximate EB2IC count of (83000- 46200) = 36800
If we deduct around 9k - 10 K porting case it gives us EB2IC in range of 25-27 K. This number looks more on optimistic side.

Note: Also we have to still deduct cases for double filings (husband / wife both filing), multiple filings etc. But lets not go that far yet.

So thats my take.

I agree with your estimation of 36800 from Aug 2007-Dec 2009 but when you started looking at 9K-10K porting numbers that is where I disagree. I believe porting was a negligible phenomena until end of 2009. When spillover rule changed in early 2010 or end of FY 2009 that is when more and more individuals started looking into it. This is one reason why we see outlier with 2010 PERM and I-140 data. I would not consider porting for 2008 and 2009.

if we will take CM's 26K for 2008 and 2009, and add 2000 PERM each month from Aug 07- Dec 07, numbers becomes 26000 + 2000*5 = 36K. This is exactly what you calculated without taking porting into consideration.

I agree with you and CM that other factors based on DD should be considered on top of this. 36K could be a good number that can be used for 2007-2009 before one will consider demand destruction.

Let me know what you think about this.

[suninphx]

I agree with your estimation of 36800 from Aug 2007-Dec 2009 but when you started looking at 9K-10K porting numbers that is where I disagree. I believe porting was a negligible phenomena until end of 2009. When spillover rule changed in early 2010 or end of FY 2009 that is when more and more individuals started looking into it. This is one reason why we see outlier with 2010 PERM and I-140 data. I would not consider porting for 2008 and 2009.

if we will take CM's 26K for 2008 and 2009, and add 2000 PERM each month from Aug 07- Dec 07, numbers becomes 26000 + 2000*5 = 36K. This is exactly what you calculated without taking porting into consideration.

I agree with you and CM that other factors based on DD should be considered on top of this. 36K could be a good number that can be used for 2007-2009 before one will consider demand destruction.

Let me know what you think about this.

Thanks for reply. I respect your opinion in terms of porting number. I still think that we need to deduct some numbers for porting. But that may not be as high as 3k-3.5k which I initially calculated - just realized that it's resultant 485 numbers. So corresponding I140 numbers may not be more than 1.5k. In any case these are very initial calculations and wil need to be refined further.
And main question is what's % of DD we are comfortable for double PERM filings etc.

[shaumack]

One more thing that we should get grip of is the I-140 to I-485 conversion factor. Is 2.125 to 2.25 still true when dates are moving into latest priority dates? Do we think that those filing in 2009 or later have family of 2 or more? Even if number is around 1.75 vs. 2.25, we are talking about difference of demand of 500 for every 1000 applications.

[suninphx]

One more thing that we should get grip of is the I-140 to I-485 conversion factor. Is 2.125 to 2.25 still true when dates are moving into latest priority dates? Do we think that those filing in 2009 or later have family of 2 or more? Even if number is around 1.75 vs. 2.25, we are talking about difference of demand of 500 for every 1000 applications.

Thats very good point. Most of my friends have US born kids but this data is something where logic plays a little role :)

[shaumack]

And main question is what's % of DD we are comfortable for double PERM filings etc.

It is difficult to guess that as data set on the forum post is too small. It can be anywhere from 60%-80% but as 'GhostWriter' pointed out as we consider 80% conversion factor for I-140, 60% will estimate on lower end. Anything with 70-75%% could be median. I think April inventory would be the best indicator that can shed some meaningful light on this. I do not expect January inventory to be that useful, at least for 2008 and 2009 filings.

[vedu]

I have a question on the yearly I-140 numbers mentioned in that report. Are these numbers for Jan-Dec or Oct-Sept. for the respective years?


I agree with your estimation of 36800 from Aug 2007-Dec 2009 but when you started looking at 9K-10K porting numbers that is where I disagree. I believe porting was a negligible phenomena until end of 2009. When spillover rule changed in early 2010 or end of FY 2009 that is when more and more individuals started looking into it. This is one reason why we see outlier with 2010 PERM and I-140 data. I would not consider porting for 2008 and 2009.

if we will take CM's 26K for 2008 and 2009, and add 2000 PERM each month from Aug 07- Dec 07, numbers becomes 26000 + 2000*5 = 36K. This is exactly what you calculated without taking porting into consideration.

I agree with you and CM that other factors based on DD should be considered on top of this. 36K could be a good number that can be used for 2007-2009 before one will consider demand destruction.

Let me know what you think about this.

[eb2visa]

Should be Oct to Sept

[shaumack]

I have a question on the yearly I-140 numbers mentioned in that report. Are these numbers for Jan-Dec or Oct-Sept. for the respective years?

It is not clear from the report but since USCIS deals mostly in fiscal year we can assume it is fiscal year data. Although it is not explicitly stated anywhere.

[vedu]

Thanks for the replies guys. If we can figure this out, it will help us refine our discussion further.


It is not clear from the report but since USCIS deals mostly in fiscal year we can assume it is fiscal year data. Although it is not explicitly stated anywhere.

[eb2visa]

These are reports from USCIS, so they should be from Oct to Sept

[vedu]

Yes, I tend to agree with you.


These are reports from USCIS, so they should be from Oct to Sept

[Spectator]

It is not clear from the report but since USCIS deals mostly in fiscal year we can assume it is fiscal year data. Although it is not explicitly stated anywhere.shaumack,

Indirectly, the report tells us it is FY. At the bottom of the charts, it says:

* All 2011 data includes FY 2011, Quarters 1 and 2 only

It is telling us that 2011 data represents October 2010 to March 2011 and therefore the years must be Fiscal Years, as we would expect.

[eb2visa]

What can we expect in the next few builletins?? Will there be any drastic movement for atleast 01/01/2010??

[zenmaster]

Happy New Year !!!!

Hope 2012 brings joy and prosperity to all !

[shaumack]

shaumack,

Indirectly, the report tells us it is FY. At the bottom of the charts, it says:

* All 2011 data includes FY 2011, Quarters 1 and 2 only

It is telling us that 2011 data represents October 2010 to March 2011 and therefore the years must be Fiscal Years, as we would expect.

Thanks Spec, very detail oriented. This is useful.

[mechanical13]

Happy New Year to everyone! I've been a silent reader, but finally decided to register today!

In light of the ombudsman report ( http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf ), what are the boiled down predictions for VB movement?

Another forum seems to suggest that this report supports movement deep into 2009 to build adequate inventory for FY 2012 approvals. Is this what the gurus on this forum are also predicting?

[shaumack]

Happy New Year to everyone! I've been a silent reader, but finally decided to register today!

In light of the ombudsman report ( http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf ), what are the boiled down predictions for VB movement?

Another forum seems to suggest that this report supports movement deep into 2009 to build adequate inventory for FY 2012 approvals. Is this what the gurus on this forum are also predicting?

Which other forum are you talking about?... trackitt? I would be careful about what they are discussing there. Some of them are saying dates will move into late 2010- 2011 by not even taking into account both TSC and NSC data and I-485 conversion; plus they are saying spillover numbers from EB1 will be high due to low EB1-1 & EB1-2 filings and high denial rate of those petitions. We all know majority of EB1 demand comes from EB1-3 or EB1-C, petitions filed for multinational managers. I do not want to discourage anyone there because that is how I started 2 years ago but with time everyone learns complexity to the process and gets better.

If you will see report discussions from last few posts or pages, it seems current movement should bring enough demand for FY 2012 approvals. Next movement will just be a FOS (Factor Of Safety) or buffer for pipeline build in case DD is huge than taken account for. Whatever movement will happen in next few bulletins would be to build inventory and refrain CO from playing guessing game each fiscal year.

Some movement deep into 2009 is plausible but not for approvals but for some inventory build. YMMV depending upon demand from January and successive bulletin filings. It all depends on CO.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends here are the trends from Trackitt for the first quarter.
Before this let’s assume how last year’s SOFAd of 30K was derived a) Eb1 – 12K (based on CO’s announcement, really after May EB1 hardly generated any SOFAD based on a subsequent announcement in the next VB’s) b) EB2 I/C Regular Cap 5.5K c) EB5 – 7k d) EB2 RoW – 5.5K.
2012 :: EB2 ROW (Primary Only) 2012 - 84
2011 :: EB2 ROW (Primary Only) 2011 - 116
Important to note that for this year 46 of the approvals came in December itself. This seems to indicate that when FY 2012 started that ROW approvable cases were less indicating thereby that a very clean job was done to approve most of them in Aug & Sep 2011 when EB2 I/C kind of stagnated. ROW approvals last year peaked up in later months. If we use the current trend literally let’s see how much SOFAD we may get from EB2 ROW. 40K – 5.5K (Regular Cap) – ( 84/116) * (40-5.5-5.5) = 34.5 - 21 = 13.5K. This would be around 8K more than last year. It is quite critical that ROW usage does not flare up in continuance of this month’s trend. Realistically ROW might just offer 4K extra SOFAD this year compared to last year. This assumption maybe classified as realistic to conservative.
2012 :: EB1-A – 16, EB1B – 31, EB1C – 74 Total - 121
2011 :: EB1-A – 13, Eb1-B – 16, EB1-C – 18, Total - 47

The EB1 Approvals on Trackitt seem to be completely overshadowed by EB1C. The Trackitt data maybe skewed because 63 of the 74 cases are from India. However the higher figures are quite consistent with the extraordinary rate of clearance of I140's from May to Sep 2011 - http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1.
Even though the number of EB1 B cases is small the number it id double of the previous year’s figures, this may indicate that finally the applications are coming out of the backlog related to the interpretation of the Kazarian Memo.
The Trackitt trend of 3 fold cannot be believed quite literally. However assuming that last year Eb1 provided 12K SOFAD so last years consumption was 28K, so in theory even a 50% acceleration can quite literally clean up all EB1 SOFAD. At the current stage I believe that assuming that EB1 will provide No SOFAD this year may be quite reasonable we are only assuming a 50% increase as opposed to 200% shown by Trackitt data. This assumption maybe classified from liberal to realistic.
Overall this brings the SOFAD down by 8K down to 22K from 30K.
The current consumption is quite easily 10K so if this trend were to hold there is another 12K to distribute. If we attribute another 2K to porting then there is only another 10k to distribute. For
Assuming 15th Jul 2007 as our baseline point. The OR of 1 means 2200 perms or 2200 485’s this will make us reach ~ 4.5 more months ahead which is 01-JAN-2008. If we assume an OR of 0.8 then its 1760 which makes it 5.5 months this makes is 01-FEB-2008. In this entire calculation the 2K PWMB folks to 15th Jul 2007 are excluded, this assumption can be classified and being liberal to offset some more demand destruction.
To conclude based on the Trackitt Trend the GC issuance line maybe somewhere between 01-JAN-2008 to 01-FEB-2008 by Sep 2012.

[shaumack]

Friends here are the trends from Trackitt for the first quarter.
Before this let’s assume how last year’s SOFAd of 30K was derived a) Eb1 – 12K (based on CO’s announcement, really after May EB1 hardly generated any SOFAD based on a subsequent announcement in the next VB’s) b) EB2 I/C Regular Cap 5.5K c) EB5 – 7k d) EB2 RoW – 5.5K.
2012 :: EB2 ROW (Primary Only) 2012 - 84
2011 :: EB2 ROW (Primary Only) 2011 - 116
Important to note that for this year 46 of the approvals came in December itself. This seems to indicate that when FY 2012 started that ROW approvable cases were less indicating thereby that a very clean job was done to approve most of them in Aug & Sep 2011 when EB2 I/C kind of stagnated. ROW approvals last year peaked up in later months. If we use the current trend literally let’s see how much SOFAD we may get from EB2 ROW. 40K – 5.5K (Regular Cap) – ( 84/116) * (40-5.5-5.5) = 34.5 - 21 = 13.5K. This would be around 8K more than last year. It is quite critical that ROW usage does not flare up in continuance of this month’s trend. Realistically ROW might just offer 4K extra SOFAD this year compared to last year. This assumption maybe classified as realistic to conservative.
2012 :: EB1-A – 16, EB1B – 31, EB1C – 74 Total - 121
2011 :: EB1-A – 13, Eb1-B – 16, EB1-C – 18, Total - 47

-----------

Teddy nice summary. You may want to check these two numbers. I am little confused about them.

EB5 - used 4.2K last fiscal year as per released data from USCIS on EB5 enhancement. So that difference from 5.6K to 7K can be attributed to EB1 or EB2-ROW.

Second figure 5.5K on EB2ROW SOFAD has 5.5K deducted twice unless you are saying EB2 M-P consumption is 0 and would yield 5.5K SO or is it a typo?

Thanks, summary looks awesome and trend points towards less SOFAD for this year.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy nice summary. You may want to check these two numbers. I am little confused about them.

EB5 - used 4.2K last fiscal year as per released data from USCIS on EB5 enhancement. So that difference from 5.6K to 7K can be attributed to EB1 or EB2-ROW.

Second figure 5.5K on EB2ROW SOFAD has 5.5K deducted twice unless you are saying EB2 M-P consumption is 0 and would yield 5.5K SO or is it a typo?

Thanks, summary looks awesome and trend points towards less SOFAD for this year.

Shaumack thanks for your feedback.
- Thanks for your feedback on EB5 I did not know the exact figures thanks for providing the same.
- For the ROW calculation I have assumed a simplistic assumption that EB2 M/P as part of ROW itself. You see 2 subtractions of 5.5 one of them is 5.5K SOFAD last year and one of them is the regular cap of 5.5K coincidence both values are same. We should calculate the percentage reduction on this figure as the reduction is based on the consumption last year.

[shaumack]

Shaumack thanks for your feedback.
- Thanks for your feedback on EB5 I did not know the exact figures thanks for providing the same.
- For the ROW calculation I have assumed a simplistic assumption that EB2 M/P as part of ROW itself. You see 2 subtractions of 5.5 one of them is 5.5K SOFAD last year and one of them is the regular cap of 5.5K coincidence both values are same. We should calculate the percentage reduction on this figure as the reduction is based on the consumption last year.

Thanks Teddy that makes sense and clears the doubt. One last question; please excuse me for being picky.

If we say NO spillover from EB1,

SOFAD = 13.5K (Eb2 ROW) + 5.5K (Regular Cap) + 7K(EB5) = 26K. This is 4K less compared to 30K but you suggested 8K. Am I missing anything here?

In any case 13.5K still look far more optimistic from EB2-ROW because I know still many EB2-ROW from July 2011 filings waiting for I-485 approvals as am I from TSC.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks Teddy that makes sense and clears the doubt. One last question; please excuse me for being picky.

If we say NO spillover from EB1,

SOFAD = 13.5K (Eb2 ROW) + 5.5K (Regular Cap) + 7K(EB5) = 26K. This is 4K less compared to 30K but you suggested 8K. Am I missing anything here?

In any case 13.5K still look far more optimistic from EB2-ROW because I know still many EB2-ROW from July 2011 filings waiting for I-485 approvals as am I from TSC.

Thanks, I greatly appreciate your feedback and feel happy that it stimulated a good discussion. We kind of agree that No spillover from Eb1 is fairly realistic the Trackitt data is indeed skewed up by Indian EB1C but it’s not incorrect altogether this means we settle at 50% extra instead of 200%.
Similarly for EB2 ROW I believe that the extra spillover theoretically comes to 8K maybe let’s cut it into half as I suggested it in the next line of my original post so this will make it 9.5K in your equation. Reason being more that 50% of EB2 Row approvals came just last month so some kind of peaking is going on here, exactly same kind of thing happened last year as well, ROW was initially behind but not caught up but crossed the last year on Trackitt.
All in all coming down from 30K to 22K is quite significant furthermore a good portion of the 22K has been spent so even assuming the more drastic rates of demand destruction causes very little change to the final outcome.

[shaumack]

T
All in all coming down from 30K to 22K is quite significant furthermore a good portion of the 22K has been spent so even assuming the more drastic rates of demand destruction causes very little change to the final outcome.

I agree SOFAD for this year will be around 20K-24K range but nothing more than that unless PERM approvals for ROW/M/P totally dries out in 2012.

The statement in red hits a bulls eye and many folks still are not ready to agree with it. Majority of visa numbers are used and any drastic DD is not much useful for this year. It may only affect cut-off date determination by couple of months (1-2 months) here and there on retrogression.

[suninphx]

Friends here are the trends from Trackitt for the first quarter.
Before this let’s assume how last year’s SOFAd of 30K was derived a) Eb1 – 12K (based on CO’s announcement, really after May EB1 hardly generated any SOFAD based on a subsequent announcement in the next VB’s) b) EB2 I/C Regular Cap 5.5K c) EB5 – 7k d) EB2 RoW – 5.5K.
2012 :: EB2 ROW (Primary Only) 2012 - 84
2011 :: EB2 ROW (Primary Only) 2011 - 116
Important to note that for this year 46 of the approvals came in December itself. This seems to indicate that when FY 2012 started that ROW approvable cases were less indicating thereby that a very clean job was done to approve most of them in Aug & Sep 2011 when EB2 I/C kind of stagnated. ROW approvals last year peaked up in later months. If we use the current trend literally let’s see how much SOFAD we may get from EB2 ROW. 40K – 5.5K (Regular Cap) – ( 84/116) * (40-5.5-5.5) = 34.5 - 21 = 13.5K. This would be around 8K more than last year. It is quite critical that ROW usage does not flare up in continuance of this month’s trend. Realistically ROW might just offer 4K extra SOFAD this year compared to last year. This assumption maybe classified as realistic to conservative.
2012 :: EB1-A – 16, EB1B – 31, EB1C – 74 Total - 121
2011 :: EB1-A – 13, Eb1-B – 16, EB1-C – 18, Total - 47

The EB1 Approvals on Trackitt seem to be completely overshadowed by EB1C. The Trackitt data maybe skewed because 63 of the 74 cases are from India. However the higher figures are quite consistent with the extraordinary rate of clearance of I140's from May to Sep 2011 - http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1.
Even though the number of EB1 B cases is small the number it id double of the previous year’s figures, this may indicate that finally the applications are coming out of the backlog related to the interpretation of the Kazarian Memo.
The Trackitt trend of 3 fold cannot be believed quite literally. However assuming that last year Eb1 provided 12K SOFAD so last years consumption was 28K, so in theory even a 50% acceleration can quite literally clean up all EB1 SOFAD. At the current stage I believe that assuming that EB1 will provide No SOFAD this year may be quite reasonable we are only assuming a 50% increase as opposed to 200% shown by Trackitt data. This assumption maybe classified from liberal to realistic.
Overall this brings the SOFAD down by 8K down to 22K from 30K.
The current consumption is quite easily 10K so if this trend were to hold there is another 12K to distribute. If we attribute another 2K to porting then there is only another 10k to distribute. For
Assuming 15th Jul 2007 as our baseline point. The OR of 1 means 2200 perms or 2200 485’s this will make us reach ~ 4.5 more months ahead which is 01-JAN-2008. If we assume an OR of 0.8 then its 1760 which makes it 5.5 months this makes is 01-FEB-2008. In this entire calculation the 2K PWMB folks to 15th Jul 2007 are excluded, this assumption can be classified and being liberal to offset some more demand destruction.
To conclude based on the Trackitt Trend the GC issuance line maybe somewhere between 01-JAN-2008 to 01-FEB-2008 by Sep 2012.
Teddy - thanks for this detailed post. Bottom line of this data is that we really really need some legislative relief and soon.
Its really frustrating to be at mercy of someone for spillover. I also have a feeling that Eb1C is kinda bringing themselves on radar with so many approvals. It's hard to imagine that there are almost equal number of international managers required as developers. :). Ok end of rant.
what's percentage range trackitt trend has been reliable in past?

[sowrad]

Thanks All

I assume this is based without considering the HR 3012 . What will be the impact on dates if HR 3012 get passed ?

[kd2008]

Thanks All

I assume this is based without considering the HR 3012 . What will be the impact on dates if HR 3012 get passed ?

Its better to talk about it after it has passed, signed by the president, and enforced into law. :D

[eb2visa]

Is this means, we can't expect any more movement until Oct 2012????????

From Jan 2012 bulletin is there any meaning to

D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.


I agree SOFAD for this year will be around 20K-24K range but nothing more than that unless PERM approvals for ROW/M/P totally dries out in 2012.

The statement in red hits a bulls eye and many folks still are not ready to agree with it. Majority of visa numbers are used and any drastic DD is not much useful for this year. It may only affect cut-off date determination by couple of months (1-2 months) here and there on retrogression.

[nishant2200]

eb2visa, this statement was made when they had only had November filings (15th july 2007 to 31st October 2007), and around a week gone by for December filings (1st November 2007 to 14th March 2008).

When time for next bulletin comes, they will have had December filings completed, and around a week for January filings (15th March 2008 to 31st December 2008).

I believe the filings generated by these three bulletins should be enough for this years visa consumption. Any further move will be at DOS discretion to build inventory, taking advantage of time lag between filing and actual visa demand.


Is this means, we can't expect any more movement until Oct 2012????????

From Jan 2012 bulletin is there any meaning to

D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

[eb2visa]

Look at Appendix B-1 at the end for India's PERM data

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/2009_Annual_Report.pdf
http://www.myvisajobs.com/Document/DOL_2010_Annual_Report.pdf
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/FY2007_OFLCPerformanceRpt.pdf

[eb2visa]

Any one interested in PERM data:

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm
http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

[eb2visa]

I-140 National trend charts

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1

[qesehmk]

I don't know you got that eb2visa. It does say that "prompting even more aggressive movement in January and possibly beyond... (followed by) ... retrogression".

So if CO is true to his words then we should see some movement in Feb too ... UNLESS he declares victory and says that he has received enough 485 to take care of any possible spillovers.

The truth is - without QSP - he had all the demand he needed to allocate visas through May 2012. Then it was a sudden fall off the cliff. So he generated demand without much of a basis of his prior precendent of not applying QSP.

Then now he is applying QSP .... but the movement so far IMHO is much bigger than the QSP for Q1. So the movement seems entirely discretionary. I would think that the fact that CO talks about possible movement beyond January ... means he is going to do at least one more movement. Big or small is anybody's guess.


Is this means, we can't expect any more movement until Oct 2012????????

From Jan 2012 bulletin is there any meaning to

D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

[suninphx]

Any one interested in PERM data:

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm
http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

Extensive analysis has been carried out by Veni, Spec. Please visit below links. They are very helpful.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA-(READ-ONLY)

[suninphx]

Is this means, we can't expect any more movement until Oct 2012????????

From Jan 2012 bulletin is there any meaning to

D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

In current scenario date movement is in discretionary mode hence can move to ANY date CO likes. Getting actual card is different ball game and that's what Teddy has mentioned in his post. I think general consensus on this forum is that 'actual card in hand' date will be somewhere in first quarter of CY2008 at end of FY 2012.

[veni001]

Friends here are the trends from Trackitt for the first quarter.
.......................
.......................

Overall this brings the SOFAD down by 8K down to 22K from 30K.

The current consumption is quite easily 10K so if this trend were to hold there is another 12K to distribute. If we attribute another 2K to porting then there is only another 10k to distribute. For
Assuming 15th Jul 2007 as our baseline point. The OR of 1 means 2200 perms or 2200 485’s this will make us reach ~ 4.5 more months ahead which is 01-JAN-2008. If we assume an OR of 0.8 then its 1760 which makes it 5.5 months this makes is 01-FEB-2008. In this entire calculation the 2K PWMB folks to 15th Jul 2007 are excluded, this assumption can be classified and being liberal to offset some more demand destruction.

To conclude based on the Trackitt Trend the GC issuance line maybe somewhere between 01-JAN-2008 to 01-FEB-2008 by Sep 2012.

Good analysis Teddy!


In current scenario date movement is in discretionary mode hence can move to ANY date CO likes. Getting actual card is different ball game and that's what Teddy has mentioned in his post. I think general consensus on this forum is that 'actual card in hand' date will be somewhere in first quarter of CY2008 at end of FY 2012.

We extensively talked about two year buffer, before really hyped/disappointed Aug/Sept 2011 Visa Bulletins followed by FY2012 surprises. I believe that the current movement is in line with our initial assumptions/predictions.

Until we know the amount of Demand Destruction, I agree that, based on possible SOFAD estimates actual GC issuance by FY2012 for EB2IC will be for PD's in Q1 of CY2008.

[mechanical13]

Which other forum are you talking about?... trackitt? It all depends on CO.

Yes, I guess that is what I am referring to, but I was referring to the EB2 trends rather than EB1 trends. I realize that EB-1C is what is absorbing a majority of the cases. (I wonder when USCIS will catch on that EB-1C is massively misused..)

Don't the EB2 trends give valuable information about inventory? Using these total figures, and EB2 ROW approvals, we should be able to back out EB2 IC data - right? (probably easier said than done), but this is probably a better starting point than using PERM data and then assuming a EB2-EB3 split.

What are you thoughts on VB movement? It is true that USCIS likes to keep a 30k-50k buffer at all times so they are slowly and steadily adjudicate people?

[suninphx]

Good analysis Teddy!



We extensively talked about two year buffer, before really hyped/disappointed Aug/Sept 2011 Visa Bulletins followed by FY2012 surprises. I believe that the current movement is in line with our initial assumptions/predictions.

Until we know the amount of Demand Destruction, I agree that, based on possible SOFAD estimates actual GC issuance by FY2012 for EB2IC will be for PD's in Q1 of CY2008.

Veni thanks for pointing this out. As long as there is some logic in the movement that makes every one more comfortable as future movement becomes relatively easier to predict. I guess same model has been deployed for 'family based' visas?
I have a question - if CO is looking for a 2 year buffer which may be around lets say 50 K buffer. So ones CO gets required buffer and dates retrogress then dates stall till FY2014? Or there will be demand build up at start of FY2013 to replenish the buffer?

[suninphx]

I think the dates won't start moving beyond the high water mark established after the Feb/March 2012 VBs until April 2013 once the 2-year inventory is collected.

They cannot move. Simply because the existing demand has to be taken care of first. The dates can only move around 6 months in advance to collect more I485s and convert them into demand. Assuming the demand generated will run through September 2013, the next time the dates start moving is around April 2013.

The pattern will be something like: Feb: forward movement, march: Forward movement/stall, April: Stall, May: Retrogress (around 1st Nov 2007), June 2012: March 2013: Forward movement as QSP becomes available to the high water mark established by the Feb/March 2012 bulletin, April 2013: Jump to the most favorable date.
Sounds logical - thanks Sports.

[eb2visa]

2 YEAR inventory means jan 2010???


I think the dates won't start moving beyond the high water mark established after the Feb/March 2012 VBs until April 2013 once the 2-year inventory is collected.

They cannot move. Simply because the existing demand has to be taken care of first. The dates can only move around 6 months in advance to collect more I485s and convert them into demand. Assuming the demand generated will run through September 2013, the next time the dates start moving is around April 2013.

The pattern will be something like: Feb: forward movement, march: Forward movement/stall, April: Stall, May: Retrogress (around 1st Nov 2007), June 2012: March 2013: Forward movement as QSP becomes available to the high water mark established by the Feb/March 2012 bulletin, April 2013: Jump to the most favorable date.

[veni001]

Veni thanks for pointing this out. As long as there is some logic in the movement that makes every one more comfortable as future movement becomes relatively easier to predict. I guess same model has been deployed for 'family based' visas?
I have a question - if CO is looking for a 2 year buffer which may be around lets say 50 K buffer. So ones CO gets required buffer and dates retrogress then dates stall till FY2014? Or there will be demand build up at start of FY2013 to replenish the buffer?

suninphx,
Considering last couple of years SOFAD, looks like a reasonable number. But remember there are lot of variable in determining each years Spillover, and can not be taken for granted.



I think the dates won't start moving beyond the high water mark established after the Feb/March 2012 VBs until April 2013 once the 2-year inventory is collected.

They cannot move. Simply because the existing demand has to be taken care of first. The dates can only move around 6 months in advance to collect more I485s and convert them into demand. Assuming the demand generated will run through September 2013, the next time the dates start moving is around April 2013.

The pattern will be something like: Feb: forward movement, march: Forward movement/stall, April: Stall, May: Retrogress (around 1st Nov 2007), June 2012: March 2013: Forward movement as QSP becomes available to the high water mark established by the Feb/March 2012 bulletin, April 2013: Jump to the most favorable date.

sportsfan33,
It depends on EB2IC demand USCIS/DOS will be receiving based on the cut-off dates. Assuming our demand calculations are correct then any less spillover means, there may not be any new intake for couple of years!



2 YEAR inventory means jan 2010???

eb2visa,
That will depend on the amount of demand destruction between 2008-2010.

[suninphx]

That's right. I was assuming a theoretically perfect scenario, where the USCIS hits the bulls eye and the demand they collect lines up with SOFAD numbers for 2012 AND 2013 in such a way that by September 2013, the demand collected up to April 2012 would reach zero.

If spillover is less, that pushes the date of next forward movement even ahead. The point is that it is *not* correct to assume that they will always keep 50K inventory at all times. They build up the inventory once, and when it reaches low numbers, that's when they push aggressively and build it up again.

Some thoughts: Teddy's analysis on EB1 is quite disturbing. But I believe the way USCIS is denying the H1Bs to control the future EB2/EB3 demand and using the Kazarian memo to control the EB1A and EB1B demand, the day of reckoning for EB1C is not too far away. The good old party will be over some time soon - especially if HR 3012 fails. I like to believe that they have some stake in moving the EB2/EB3 dates at some reasonable pace and if the push came to shove, they will take up reforming EB1C.

Can't agree more on EB1C. Let me tell a classic example from one of my previous company. They applied a Eb1C for a person with 6-7 years experience showing him as international manager (I know this is perfectly within rules and I am not complaining). He got GC within a year while his Principle Tech Arch is still waiting in Eb2. :)

[nishant2200]

sportsfan33, I think that generally these days, the agencies have been quite pin-pointed in catching "trends". The trend maybe an upshot in EB1C, or a decline in EB1A-B, EB2 (the DHS document which people were discussing few pages back), the need to prove employer employee relationships and the talk of needing H1 amendment for each location change (effectively trying to kill consulting IT industry). Now upon seeing a trend, how they react to it, that would depend on the policymakers of the country, the sentiment and will of the politicians and the public (like for eg: bad economy -> anti-immigrant sentiment).

What is needed, if agencies do catch this EB1C trend, co-relate it with tightening of processes in H1B and L visas, is a Memo similar to Kazarian. You are right in calling it a "reform".


That's right. I was assuming a theoretically perfect scenario, where the USCIS hits the bulls eye and the demand they collect lines up with SOFAD numbers for 2012 AND 2013 in such a way that by September 2013, the demand collected up to April 2012 would reach zero.

If spillover is less, that pushes the date of next forward movement even ahead. The point is that it is *not* correct to assume that they will always keep 50K inventory at all times. They build up the inventory once, and when it reaches low numbers, that's when they push aggressively and build it up again.

Some thoughts: Teddy's analysis on EB1 is quite disturbing. But I believe the way USCIS is denying the H1Bs to control the future EB2/EB3 demand and using the Kazarian memo to control the EB1A and EB1B demand, the day of reckoning for EB1C is not too far away. The good old party will be over some time soon - especially if HR 3012 fails. I like to believe that they have some stake in moving the EB2/EB3 dates at some reasonable pace and if the push came to shove, they will take up reforming EB1C.

[nishant2200]

I completely agree with you. Thanks for being non-biased on this, even though your wife's situation.

Also EB1C can even cannibalize any SO from EB5 and EB4, so even if we forget SO from EB1 due to it, potentially, we can get hit on SO from EB5 or EB4 also from this rising trend.


I think the "trend" is quite clear. I have seen the murmurs of massive EB1C abuses from 2009. If SOFAD seriously falls short of something like 25K, I think that is a warning sign to correct the problems in EB1C.

I think the EB1C poses a serious threat in the coming years and here's why: Salaries and property prices in India are skyrocketing and companies won't mind sending "managers" at 60-80K to the US locations in future. Already, some upper echelon salaries in India are exceeding what folks like us make here even on a pure dollar to rupee conversion. the property prices in Mumbai suburbs have exceeded those in the Montgomery County, MD (one of the best counties in the nation).

I have no beef with EB1C. The only problem I have is that is is completely unfair for someone to "sneak in" to this category with the much abused L1A after proving only "1 year oversees" was spent as a manager. I had cited the example of my wife on this forum before - to refresh, she went back to India, and got hired as a senior manager *immediately* in a bank. She subsequently got an offer from an IT giant who mentioned they would send her to the US on L1A in 2012 and would subsequently "do her green card in under an year". She is my lovely wife and everything, but c'mon, how is it fair for anyone to simply come to the US on L1A and get their green card in EB1C while thousands of us waited so many years? We all have paid our dues in this system, and I like to believe losing people like us with our savings and the ability to directly invest in the economy here is more harmful than tightening screws on EB1C.

IT consultants on the other hand almost exclusively use H1B and have to pass LC and get into EB2 at the most. Yes, things are made tough there, but the business will survive with the deserving candidates getting their green cards. I think they are tough as they are. It's time for EB1C to fall in line with everyone else.

[Desperate8]

Good evening to all - my situation is the same like sportsfan and to add to the above all mnc's have now open their EB1 doors that's just to overcome their hurdles in hiring people on a visa (concerning all visa issues) not to spot ,but I have also waited for more than 8 years broken at heart by the first employer who took me for a ride for 4 years. Well nothing can bring the time back I have gone from black to gray haired :).finally got to file485 starting jan , but after learning about what big companies are upto I fear we would ever get a spill over and would ever clear the backlog.heart goes to all .sorry if I had hurted someone it's just that I am desperate.

[cm9201]

I know one of my friend who is under EB2I 2010 was trying to get his wife who has around 6 years experience in EB1 through congnigent. Wonder is she is tester in infosys. I am not sure how this is possible.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I think the "trend" is quite clear. I have seen the murmurs of massive EB1C abuses from 2009. If SOFAD seriously falls short of something like 25K, I think that is a warning sign to correct the problems in EB1C.

I think the EB1C poses a serious threat in the coming years and here's why: Salaries and property prices in India are skyrocketing and companies won't mind sending "managers" at 60-80K to the US locations in future. Already, some upper echelon salaries in India are exceeding what folks like us make here even on a pure dollar to rupee conversion. the property prices in Mumbai suburbs have exceeded those in the Montgomery County, MD (one of the best counties in the nation).

I have no beef with EB1C. The only problem I have is that is is completely unfair for someone to "sneak in" to this category with the much abused L1A after proving only "1 year oversees" was spent as a manager. I had cited the example of my wife on this forum before - to refresh, she went back to India, and got hired as a senior manager *immediately* in a bank. She subsequently got an offer from an IT giant who mentioned they would send her to the US on L1A in 2012 and would subsequently "do her green card in under an year". She is my lovely wife and everything, but c'mon, how is it fair for anyone to simply come to the US on L1A and get their green card in EB1C while thousands of us waited so many years? We all have paid our dues in this system, and I like to believe losing people like us with our savings and the ability to directly invest in the economy here is more harmful than tightening screws on EB1C.

IT consultants on the other hand almost exclusively use H1B and have to pass LC and get into EB2 at the most. Yes, things are made tough there, but the business will survive with the deserving candidates getting their green cards. I think they are tough as they are. It's time for EB1C to fall in line with everyone else.

Agree with you on this. You know, from a physician's perspective, EB1C is pretty much an untouchable category because regardless of however hard we work and how many years of experience we have, we will never be working as a manager of a multinational company and will not be filing ever under EB1C. I am confident that you can't find a single physician filing under EB1C. You talked about 60-80k salary range as a manager where a physician will be starting way higher than that and still will be working in an underserved area getting exploited till he gets a green card.

Agree, that there are many physicians who are filing under EB1A and EB1B but the rejection rate is quite high for them. I have heard about so many physicians who were genuine candidates getting rejected under EB1A and EB1B recently.

Just to give you an example,
- I have 3 of my good friends who had very very strong resumes with more than 15 first author publications and very strong recommendations letters.
- Two of them had Masters in Public Health from Johns Hopkins and one had Masters in Microbiology from Harvard.
- All had GPA of 4 during medical school and masters.
- All had scholarships.
- Two of them secured gold medals in India during their post-graduation.
- One person wrote a book and published in his third year of MBBS.
- All of them are actually honorary critics in very very reputed peer reviewed journals so they review other physicians' articles and comment on them.
- All of them have very good high paying positions (>$250K per annum) in big universities and they work as Pediatric Cardiologist, Transplant Nephrologist and Pulmonary-Critical Care Specialist respectively.
- All have very very strong recommendation letters.
- They all are in their 40s after putting long years of their lives in studying medicine.

One applied in EB1A and rest two applied in EB1B. No one got RFEs. All of them got rejected (within 6 months, 8 months, 2 years respectively) for apparently no good reason. I have reviewed their applications personally and they were really really strong applications. I personally know them very well and one thing I can tell you is that they were way more qualified than anybody applying under EB1C.

On the other side, my neighbor who did his computer engineering in India and worked for a big software company for 2.5 years came here on L1A. The company that hired him filed his GC under EB1C and he got his GC within 6-7 months. No RFE or any other trouble. He told me that he makes around $85k every year. He is 28 years only and did not have even any significant experience.

I have nothing against him or anybody applying under EB1C because they are not doing any illegal thing but this whole system is really unfair and USCIS really needs to tighten the screws for EB1C.

[qesehmk]

Desper8
Your frustration is understandable and honesty is admirable.
I do think that EB1C rules in particularly have lost sanity. DOS really needs to look at them.

I do not call it misuse though since people are playing by the rules and framework set by DOS/USCIS.

However if EB2/3 were to write a petition to DOS/USCIS explaining the situation - I wouldn't blame EB2/3 folks. I particularly think that people with at least US masters or even bachelors for that matter should be given a GC without question. And may be USCIS could create tiers of universities and make this applicable to Tier 1 universities only. That too will go a long to reduce frustration that people like you (and even me) have to face. Luckily I am free now having receivd my GC. But I can feel the pain hence the words.


Good evening to all - my situation is the same like sportsfan and to add to the above all mnc's have now open their EB1 doors that's just to overcome their hurdles in hiring people on a visa (concerning all visa issues) not to spot ,but I have also waited for more than 8 years broken at heart by the first employer who took me for a ride for 4 years. Well nothing can bring the time back I have gone from black to gray haired :).finally got to file485 starting jan , but after learning about what big companies are upto I fear we would ever get a spill over and would ever clear the backlog.heart goes to all .sorry if I had hurted someone it's just that I am desperate.

[mechanical13]

Agree with you on this. You know, from a physician's perspective, EB1C is pretty much an untouchable category because regardless of however hard we work and how many years of experience we have, we will never be working as a manager of a multinational company and will not be filing ever under EB1C.

EB1C is definitely a massive loophole that MNCs are manipulating to reduce their GC processing overhead. My heart goes out to the doctors and researchers who are stuck in GC limbo while less talented folk get their GC faster.

We need to bring awareness to this. How do we do this? Should we start a online petition? Should we involve the group that should not be mentioned on this forum?:cool:

[srimurthy]

Surprising to see people with a overall experience of 3 years qualifying for EB1 category, when people with bachelors + 5 years is the criteria for EB2. Also I do understand the pain of medical professionals and one of the reasons is there are organizations like ADA and AMA who minotor and stipulate the necessary qualifications even to get into college for further education. My spouse is a dentist with multiple year experience and finally gave up to get into a school and pursue her career. I am a IT manager with 15 years of experience still working for GC. By denying people with the kind of qualifications that Jonty shared, US is harming itself is my feeling.

[Desperate8]

Absolutely agree with all above , especially with Jonty R , qesehmk thanks for your input.
Well i would wonder if someone from USCIS may be CO himself spends couple of minutes looking into this forum and realizing the pain we have to go through.
For now the only way I get out of this frustration is by looking at my 2 beautiful kids growing :)
Hopefully this year brings us all some peace and happiness by all means. Stay healthy and relaxed - god bless everyone.

[self.coach]

EB3I are not happy that comparatively equal/lesser qualified candidates get in the EB2I queue. They forget that EB3I has been abused by Indian companies too, and yet play the victim card. Many of them themselves may have worked for consulting companies even without projects (on bench) and kept the payroll going to stay in status, which is abuse of the system too if you go by the books. And they use all means possible to port from EB3 to EB2 as well.

Now, EB2I are not happy about the same thing happening to EB1I. They forget that EB2I has been abused as well, by many EB2I applicants who filed through Indian companies that advertised (during Perm process) EB3 type jobs with "Masters Degree required".

For GC, if your employer agrees your request to apply GC through an advanced category, are you going to step back saying that "this is an abuse of the system and I am not willing to do it"? The answer is no, isn't it? And yet the greener grass on the other side always appears to be in the wrong.


Desper8
Your frustration is understandable and honesty is admirable.
I do think that EB1C rules in particularly have lost sanity. DOS really needs to look at them.

I do not call it misuse though since people are playing by the rules and framework set by DOS/USCIS.

However if EB2/3 were to write a petition to DOS/USCIS explaining the situation - I wouldn't blame EB2/3 folks. I particularly think that people with at least US masters or even bachelors for that matter should be given a GC without question. And may be USCIS could create tiers of universities and make this applicable to Tier 1 universities only. That too will go a long to reduce frustration that people like you (and even me) have to face. Luckily I am free now having receivd my GC. But I can feel the pain hence the words.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy - thanks for this detailed post. Bottom line of this data is that we really really need some legislative relief and soon.
Its really frustrating to be at mercy of someone for spillover. I also have a feeling that Eb1C is kinda bringing themselves on radar with so many approvals. It's hard to imagine that there are almost equal number of international managers required as developers. :). Ok end of rant.
what's percentage range trackitt trend has been reliable in past?

Sun here is my post from the 2011 thread.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2011&p=23#post23
Using the Trackitt trend we were able to come to a conclusion that there is a good chance that EB1 would give spillover this year. In fact Eb1 did not provide any spillover in the last 2 years. Trackitt numbers are good in providing a good sense of direction; however we should use our own judgment in using them.
The reason why we are seeing a higher number of approvals now is due to the extremely high I140 clearance. EB1C has always constituted 50% of Eb1. Looks like on Trackitt the Indian representation is higher we should not take the trend in absolute terms therefore. That is why I would prefer to still call it a 50% increase in EB1 and no SOFAD arising rather than 200%. As Nishant pointed out EB1 is really a category of no limits they can even absorb the EB5 spillover. The current quarter will be very interesting to observe for EB2 ROW and EB1.
Incidentally Q is the pioneer of using the percentage reduction method for predictions this is how it all started. Using Trackitt one advantage is that we do not have to go in for assumptions as to what percentage to put to say EB1 / EB2 / EB3, ROW , I/C etc its all done.

[suninphx]

Sun here is my post from the 2011 thread.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2011&p=23#post23
Using the Trackitt trend we were able to come to a conclusion that there is a good chance that EB1 would give spillover this year. In fact Eb1 did not provide any spillover in the last 2 years. Trackitt numbers are good in providing a good sense of direction; however we should use our own judgment in using them.
The reason why we are seeing a higher number of approvals now is due to the extremely high I140 clearance. EB1C has always constituted 50% of Eb1. Looks like on Trackitt the Indian representation is higher we should not take the trend in absolute terms therefore. That is why I would prefer to still call it a 50% increase in EB1 and no SOFAD arising rather than 200%. As Nishant pointed out EB1 is really a category of no limits they can even absorb the EB5 spillover. The current quarter will be very interesting to observe for EB2 ROW and EB1.
Incidentally Q is the pioneer of using the percentage reduction method for predictions this is how it all started. Using Trackitt one advantage is that we do not have to go in for assumptions as to what percentage to put to say EB1 / EB2 / EB3, ROW , I/C etc its all done.

T,
The link you provided took me to landing page. The posts there are useful. I also navigated to page 23 of 2011 thread and saw some useful posts on EB1 there too. Thanks.

Just to confirm - you meant EB1 will (or will not ) provide spillover this year based on Trackitt trend?

[TeddyKoochu]

T,
The link you provided took me to landing page. The posts there are useful. I also navigated to page 23 of 2011 thread and saw some useful posts on EB1 there too. Thanks.

Just to confirm - you meant EB1 will (or will not ) provide spillover this year based on Trackitt trend?

Sun, refer to post # 12. Yes as per the current trend EB1 will not provide any SOFAD this year. We should continue to monitor this may change.

Also look at - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections

[nishant2200]

Sun, refer to post # 12. Yes as per the current trend EB1 will not provide any SOFAD this year. We should continue to monitor this may change.

Also look at - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections

Teddy, one thing interesting this year might be that, due to QSP, a trend would have to be watched quarter by quarter. It might be that in some quarter, EB1 does indeed provide some QSP, while in some other quarter it may not. Not only now the SO depends on the demand by EB1, but also performance by USCIS. Also I do believe that Q4 would be a quarter where in "tweaks" would be made by agencies based on policy decisions and current sentiment of the will of the country's direction makers.

One thing I am concerned about is that if CO does a huge intake as seems he is intent on doing, he may not use QSP once his intake is done, and go back to his annual SO strategy, which allows USCIS to play catch up for their low performance earlier on, or low demand from EB1 earlier on, or both. I think that QSP keeps the agencies moving, strategizing, and planning dates continuously, while a huge intake and big retrogression followed by moves by annual SO, is not good for us.

[TeddyKoochu]

Ok thanks for clarification-. Can you please correct your orginal post when get chance?

Sun I will update post # 3 which is the header of the thread by this weekend.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, one thing interesting this year might be that, due to QSP, a trend would have to be watched quarter by quarter. It might be that in some quarter, EB1 does indeed provide some QSP, while in some other quarter it may not. Not only now the SO depends on the demand by EB1, but also performance by USCIS. Also I do believe that Q4 would be a quarter where in "tweaks" would be made by agencies based on policy decisions and current sentiment of the will of the country's direction makers.

One thing I am concerned about is that if CO does a huge intake as seems he is intent on doing, he may not use QSP once his intake is done, and go back to his annual SO strategy, which allows USCIS to play catch up for their low performance earlier on, or low demand from EB1 earlier on, or both. I think that QSP keeps the agencies moving, strategizing, and planning dates continuously, while a huge intake and big retrogression followed by moves by annual SO, is not good for us.

You are correct QSP will make things interesting and require greater accountability and enhance performance. It might make them push short falling categories. Q1 2012 however Eb2 I/C appear to have got a decent share it easily is around 10K. The upcoming quarter will be very crucial to see on how the approvals come by and the date movements. Large date movements help to provide much needed temporary relief in the form of EAD / AP.

[savinir]

It means they have already decided upon the cut off date. fingers crossed..

[RRRRRR]

I am the primary applicant and work in the US. Is it an issue for AOS if spouse works outside the US at the time of filing AOS?

All the applicants must be in US at the time of filing.

[bieber]

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: February 2012 (Coming Soon)

They put it up on the first working day. Let's see when the VB is released. The sooner the better for progressing the dates to their highest advance.

They did this for last 2 bulletins, hope we will see big movement this time too

[vizcard]

I don't mean to be a bubble burster.. but please don't go by the day when the website says "coming soon". There has been no correlation between the date when "coming soon" is on the site to when the bulletin was actually released or to the movement (or lack thereof).

[leo07]

You have posted the same question in two threads. It's already answered in the other. Please delete this if you can

Secondary applicant is in the US currently and will be filing.

Question is, if secondary applicant is employed outside of the US, is that an issue. Lawyer's questionnaire has this question : If currently employed abroad, provide the employer information. I would like to know if this will be an issue

However, there is no such question in the I 485 form itself?

[devi_pd]

Trackitt Update:

Number of EB2I applications with USCIS RD in Nov 2011 = 287
Number of EB2I applications with USCIS RD in Dec 2011 = 247


Surprising the dec number is smaller than the Nov number. May be people will update their cases later this month.

[leo07]

It is normal order of business. Nothing much can/should be read out of this statement.

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: February 2012 (Coming Soon)

They put it up on the first working day. Let's see when the VB is released. The sooner the better for progressing the dates to their highest advance.

[nishant2200]

good observation. Yeah let's check this back after two weeks.

If this trend holds though, or is even equaling, and just going by this trend very high level, than it's a good sign, because in Nov filing, people from 15th July 2007 to 15th August 2007 were also there, and this period, some people already filed during 2007, so if the December filing trend is less or equal to november filing trend, it would mean that the density got a bit lesser.


Trackitt Update:

Number of EB2I applications with USCIS RD in Nov 2011 = 287
Number of EB2I applications with USCIS RD in Dec 2011 = 247


Surprising the dec number is smaller than the Nov number. May be people will update their cases later this month.

[suninphx]

Guys,

Another stab at trackitt data . Here are I485(primary) number of applications for EB2I

Jan - July 2007 --- 775

Aug07- Mar 08 ----378 ( if we can add another say 50 for remaining days of March it becomes ~425).

so thats almost 45% less filings. We can attribute some percentage of it to people loosing interest and not updating trackitt, people who did not file yet etc. But still decline seems to be high.

Just thought of sharing while we wait for actual data.


suninphx,

Thanks for sharing. I agree that the Trackitt % may change and it therefore makes the data less reliable. In fact it is very difficult at present to know what conversion factor to use.

Here's a different perspective.

I looked at the data with USCIS Received dates from October 2011 onwards and by the PD range made current in each VB. I have looked at Primary applicants only, because Trackitt is not reliable for Dependent numbers.

October VB - 92 cases
November VB - 225 cases
December VB - 151 cases

I also looked at when the cases were added to the Tracker by the user for the October VB movement.

The average date is 19 days after the USCIS Receipt Date, the median is 14 days after the USCIS Receipt Date and the Max to date is 72 days after USCIS Receipt Date.

Within the range that conversion factors were bouncing around last year, the number of Trackitt applications for October and November VB movements are reasonably consistent with those expected for an OR of 0.8. It is not possible to be very precise about this yet.

The December figures are low, but since the time to add a case to Trackitt after USCIS Receipt may be 14-19 days, they may well only represent a fraction of the Trackitt cases we will eventually see for movement in the December VB.

I hope this helps in thinking about the subject.

Spec,

Here are follow up numbers as on today:


Jan - July 2007 --- 789

Aug07- Mar 08 ----445

I know these are still early days but numbers are still significantly low. I will post the numbers again after two weeks and then take your help to figure out how to interpret those(if you think data to be good enough to be discussed at that point)

[suninphx]

is this nvc fee notice or spam ?

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/882422273/mail-from-nvc-fee-for-neopost-ds-1200/page/last_page

[TeddyKoochu]

is this nvc fee notice or spam ?

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/882422273/mail-from-nvc-fee-for-neopost-ds-1200/page/last_page

The post seems to be fine, this could be a very positive indicator of forward movement (Creating Inventory).

[nishant2200]

is this nvc fee notice or spam ?

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/882422273/mail-from-nvc-fee-for-neopost-ds-1200/page/last_page

http://www.neopostinc.com/Products/Folding-Inserting-Systems/High-Volume/DS-1200.aspx

neopost ds - 1200 is a machine tool to do high volume paper mailing in envelopes, it seems. So it looks like alongwith doing the paper envelope mail, the machine is also configured to send the mailing payload as a pdf attachment to a defined email address.

secondly a google search for LIVAOS leads to:
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-fb/623127705/did-anybody-receive-livaos-from-nvc

Also translating this Chinese page:
http://visa01.5d6d.com/archiver/tid-13099.html
gives various references of LIVAOS

Hence adding all this up, it looks like genuine post. Chances of dates reaching this point at least now look quite good. Although it must be said that NVC notices sent out around 6 months before expectation of being current. To counter this, even before last VB, such notices got sent out and the next VB immidiately justified them.

Things are looking up.

[suninphx]

http://www.neopostinc.com/Products/Folding-Inserting-Systems/High-Volume/DS-1200.aspx

neopost ds - 1200 is a machine tool to do high volume paper mailing in envelopes, it seems. So it looks like alongwith doing the paper envelope mail, the machine is also configured to send the mailing payload as a pdf attachment to a defined email address.

secondly a google search for LIVAOS leads to:
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-fb/623127705/did-anybody-receive-livaos-from-nvc




Also translating this Chinese page:
http://visa01.5d6d.com/archiver/tid-13099.html
gives various references of LIVAOS

Hence adding all this up, it looks like genuine post. Chances of dates reaching this point at least now look quite good. Although it must be said that NVC notices sent out around 6 months before expectation of being current. To counter this, even before last VB, such notices got sent out and the next VB immidiately justified them.

Things are looking up.

Thanks for all those links Nishant.

I checked profile of the user and it looked fine. I was not very sure about the content of the email.
Agree with '6 month' caveat ...I am just happy that some one in 2009 got NVC fee notice :)

[zenmaster]

Awesome detailed lookup :)
Thanks.
I am keeping my fingers crossed.... (PD:May2009) ;)

http://www.neopostinc.com/Products/Folding-Inserting-Systems/High-Volume/DS-1200.aspx

neopost ds - 1200 is a machine tool to do high volume paper mailing in envelopes, it seems. So it looks like alongwith doing the paper envelope mail, the machine is also configured to send the mailing payload as a pdf attachment to a defined email address.

secondly a google search for LIVAOS leads to:
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-fb/623127705/did-anybody-receive-livaos-from-nvc

Also translating this Chinese page:
http://visa01.5d6d.com/archiver/tid-13099.html
gives various references of LIVAOS

Hence adding all this up, it looks like genuine post. Chances of dates reaching this point at least now look quite good. Although it must be said that NVC notices sent out around 6 months before expectation of being current. To counter this, even before last VB, such notices got sent out and the next VB immidiately justified them.

Things are looking up.

[Spectator]

suninphx,

Thanks for sharing. I agree that the Trackitt % may change and it therefore makes the data less reliable. In fact it is very difficult at present to know what conversion factor to use.

Here's a different perspective.

I looked at the data with USCIS Received dates from October 2011 onwards and by the PD range made current in each VB. I have looked at Primary applicants only, because Trackitt is not reliable for Dependent numbers.
December 24, 2011

October VB - 92 cases
November VB - 225 cases
December VB - 151 cases

I also looked at when the cases were added to the Tracker by the user for the October VB movement.

The average date is 19 days after the USCIS Receipt Date, the median is 14 days after the USCIS Receipt Date and the Max to date is 72 days after USCIS Receipt Date.

Within the range that conversion factors were bouncing around last year, the number of Trackitt applications for October and November VB movements are reasonably consistent with those expected for an OR of 0.8. It is not possible to be very precise about this yet.

The December figures are low, but since the time to add a case to Trackitt after USCIS Receipt may be 14-19 days, they may well only represent a fraction of the Trackitt cases we will eventually see for movement in the December VB.

I hope this helps in thinking about the subject.


Guys,

Another stab at trackitt data . Here are I485(primary) number of applications for EB2I

Jan - July 2007 --- 775

Aug07- Mar 08 ----378 ( if we can add another say 50 for remaining days of March it becomes ~425).

so thats almost 45% less filings. We can attribute some percentage of it to people loosing interest and not updating trackitt, people who did not file yet etc. But still decline seems to be high.

Just thought of sharing while we wait for actual data.


Spec,

Here are follow up numbers as on today:


Jan - July 2007 --- 789

Aug07- Mar 08 ----445

I know these are still early days but numbers are still significantly low. I will post the numbers again after two weeks and then take your help to figure out how to interpret those(if you think data to be good enough to be discussed at that point)suninphx,

Here is an update from my side as of today (Jan 3, 2012) for cases Received by USCIS from October 01, 2011 onwards :

October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 -- 100 cases
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 --- 15 cases

Cases for October VB have virtually dried up, but cases for all other VBs continue to be added daily. I have removed many duplicates in the data, so these are the net figures.

I will update when you next post progress.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Here is an update from my side as of today (Jan 3, 2012) for cases Received by USCIS from October 01, 2011 onwards :

October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 -- 100 cases
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 --- 15 cases

Cases for October VB have virtually dried up, but cases for all other VBs continue to be added daily. I have removed many duplicates in the data, so these are the net figures.

I will update when you next post progress.

Thanks Spec! I will post updated numbers in about 2 weeks.

[trackitgc]

This is some interesting news ... do you guys think that this news might affect future movement

http://www.thedaily.com/page/2012/01/03/010312-news-immigration-strife-1-3/?test=latestnews

[Sandeep2011]

Dear friends,

Want to share a good news. I had submitted my AOS package to TSC on 6th December (PD-Sept '07) and today i got an email informing me that they have approved my EAD and AP applications. Curiously, my finger printing is not done yet. It is scheduled for later this week. I am not sure what inference can be drawn from this but i am sure it definitely is a positive sign for several of us and our family members who have been waiting for EAD.

thanks.

[ramchand]

With regards to suninphx's post about the Nvc fee notice from trackitt, can some one please explain what this fee notice is about? Would people who opt for I-140 -> I-485 route see this? Or is it only for people who opt for CP? Sorry for the newbie question. I only have a superficial understanding of the process so far.

[longgcque]

ramchand,
When I140 is filed then attorney has an option to specify whether this immigrant for whom 140 is being filed will file 485 to adjust his status or will opt CP route in future.
For an I140 which has CP elected, on approval it goes to NVC and remains there. Then when NVC gets an idea on future date movements then it sends a notice to the person to submit fees and docs for further processing, in anticipation of working on his/her case.

What I have heard from experts around here is that there is usually a lag of 6 months from fee receipt notice to PD touching that date.

Hope it helps.

[mechanical13]

What I have heard from experts around here is that there is usually a lag of 6 months from fee receipt notice to PD touching that date.

Hope it helps.

I may be incorrect here, but I do believe that seeing the NVC fee receipts does not necessary mean that the dates will only move 6 months later. In recent times,we have seen fee receipt requests within weeks of VB movement.

Other Gurus on this forum - please correct me if I am incorrect.

[longgcque]

mechanical13, I agree with you, there is no documented rule to justify 6 months criteria. All I quoted was what i have heard and it roughly applies looking at past tends(la_ch_2002 reported in 8/2011 about NVC receipt and dates moved in approx 4 months, my dates are close to his PD
).

I may be incorrect here, but I do believe that seeing the NVC fee receipts does not necessary mean that the dates will only move 6 months later. In recent times,we have seen fee receipt requests within weeks of VB movement.

Other Gurus on this forum - please correct me if I am incorrect.

[dreamer]

Ramchand,

People who opt for CP will only receive this NVC fee notices. Based on my observations in earlier posts, if you pay the fees, it will be valid for 1 year and this is just an indicator that dates can move forward in coming bulletins.


With regards to suninphx's post about the Nvc fee notice from trackitt, can some one please explain what this fee notice is about? Would people who opt for I-140 -> I-485 route see this? Or is it only for people who opt for CP? Sorry for the newbie question. I only have a superficial understanding of the process so far.

[nishant2200]

Ramchand,

People who opt for CP will only receive this NVC fee notices. Based on my observations in earlier posts, if you pay the fees, it will be valid for 1 year and this is just an indicator that dates can move forward in coming bulletins.

You have one year to pay fees or request to move file to AOS. Fees once paid and accepted are valid forever.

[eb2visa]

140 & 485 approvals


http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada

[Spectator]

140 & 485 approvals


http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada

Old news. This is just a re-statement of the figures contained in All Form Types Performance Data (Fiscal Year 2011) (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1b52d725f5501310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) published on November 29, 2011.

[iamsam]

My PD is Jan 5 2009, and i received the NVC fee notice on 30th December 2011. So it seems 6 month rule does not necessarily apply. But it is a good sign that dates will move in next bulletin for sure.

Somebody mentioned earlier in this or other thread that one has to reply to NVC fee notice within 30 days, I guess this is incorrect. You have upto 1 year to either pay the fee or inform NVC about AOS (if one wants to change CP to AOS). Gurus please correct if i am wrong.


I may be incorrect here, but I do believe that seeing the NVC fee receipts does not necessary mean that the dates will only move 6 months later. In recent times,we have seen fee receipt requests within weeks of VB movement.

Other Gurus on this forum - please correct me if I am incorrect.

[imdeng]

We now have several confirmed reports of people with 2009 PD receiving fee notices AFTER the last VB was issued. Since CO controls both the VB and the NVC, both departments can be assumed to follow a consistent policy directive - so it does seem clear that the direction for Feb VB is forward. The magnitude of the movement is the remaining question.

None of the fee notices are deep in 2009 though - so as such we don't have support for a large movement in Feb VB from fee notices point of view.

[cool_mj007]

Every time I see visa bulletin, I try to interpret the standard paragraphs but not quite sure what they represent. Especially the paragraph listed below.
-----------------------
2. Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320
-----------------------

Questions:
Does this mean that (hypothetically speaking) the total number of possible EB (1 to 5) + FB Green cards for any country in a year are 7% of (226K + 140K) = 25.62K?
Which means, no matter what the available SOFAD for a single country the maximum limit is set at 25.62K?
Also a spike in FB numbers could possibly suppress EB2 spillover even if there is available SOFAD?



Disclaimer: please ignore my lack of expertise in this subject:) but an overview of how the numbers work might help.

[ramchand]

Hi imdeng, from your recollection, what was the farthest date from 2009 PDs that got the fee notice? I am trying to estimate just how good my chances are with wife's PD of 1st april, 2009.

[imdeng]

My understanding is as follows: 7% limit does applies to EB+FB visa issue - but spillovers are not counted in this limit. That is why EB3IC can not get more than 2.8K (the EB3 portion of the 7% limit: 40K*0.07) but EB2IC can get more since the category is current and spillover from EB2ROW/EB1 adds to the base 2.8K allocation. Further, a country can exceed 7% in one category as long as it is within 7% when taken as a whole (e.g. South Korea gets way more than 2.8K EB3 every year because of this loophole since their FB consumption is low)

Hope this answers your question.

Questions:
Does this mean that (hypothetically speaking) the total number of possible EB (1 to 5) + FB Green cards for any country in a year are 7% of (226K + 140K) = 25.62K?
Which means, no matter what the available SOFAD for a single country the maximum limit is set at 25.62K?
Also a spike in FB numbers could possibly suppress EB2 spillover even if there is available SOFAD?

[imdeng]

19 May 2009 has been the latest report on trackitt that seems genuine. It is from a an occassional poster who registered on trackitt in 2009 and has a history of sincere posts there.

Hi imdeng, from your recollection, what was the farthest date from 2009 PDs that got the fee notice? I am trying to estimate just how good my chances are with wife's PD of 1st april, 2009.

[cool_mj007]

Thanks imdeng, this certainly helps.


My understanding is as follows: 7% limit does applies to EB+FB visa issue - but spillovers are not counted in this limit. That is why EB3IC can not get more than 2.8K (the EB3 portion of the 7% limit: 40K*0.07) but EB2IC can get more since the category is current and spillover from EB2ROW/EB1 adds to the base 2.8K allocation. Further, a country can exceed 7% in one category as long as it is within 7% when taken as a whole (e.g. South Korea gets way more than 2.8K EB3 every year because of this loophole since their FB consumption is low)

Hope this answers your question.

[suninphx]

Last year also latest NVC notice date was Jun_jul 2008 but still dates moved past that. So lets not loose the hope, yet. :)

[indiasunil]

FYI : Texas Service Center
Application Received : Dec' 15th
Receipts Received : Dec' 23rd
FP Received : Jan' 04th
FP Date : Jan' 25th

[Spectator]

I thought this was a potentially interesting post (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15995&p=66365#post66365) on Ron Gotcher's forum


EB2 India CP interview scheduled at Mumbai Consulate

Good news, my CP interview is scheduled at Mumbai Consulate on Feb 07, 2012

a. PD date is Mar 05, 2007 EB2 India
b. Current as of Dec 01, 2011
c. Received letter from NVC on Dec 12, 2011 saying that Mumbai Consulate is processing the case though I applied for Chennai Consulate (Starting from Jan 1st 2012 either Mumbai or Delhi will process the immigration cases it seems)
d. Received email from NVC on Jan 03, 2012 stating that Mumbai consulate scheduled interview on Feb 07, 2012
e. Submitted origianl DOB certificate to NVC still they asked me to bring original DOBC to interview (Sent email to Mumbai Consulate and waiting for their response)
f. Planning to take appointment with Apollo Hospital Chennai for medicals on 1st week of Feb (Medicals can be done at any of consulate approved hospitals)

It says the PD is March 05, 2007 EB2 India, but it must actually be March 05, 2008 EB2 India, if it only became Current in December 2011.

So, an applicant with a PD in March 2008, that is Consular Processed, may walk out of the Consulate on February 07, 2012, knowing their case is approved.

In contrast, an AOS applicant with the same PD probably won't know until April-May 2012, by which time there is always the possibility of retrogression.

It does show the advantages CP can have, if it's a possibility.

[mygctracker]

Congratulations Sandeep2011. This is really fast.
Did you notice any LUDs on our case before you got email confirmation?

I'm also eagerly waiting for my EAD approval, still show Initial Review.

Thanks & Enjoy!



Dear friends,

Want to share a good news. I had submitted my AOS package to TSC on 6th December (PD-Sept '07) and today i got an email informing me that they have approved my EAD and AP applications. Curiously, my finger printing is not done yet. It is scheduled for later this week. I am not sure what inference can be drawn from this but i am sure it definitely is a positive sign for several of us and our family members who have been waiting for EAD.

thanks.

[immitrickz]

Can we infer that Mar 15 2008 will be current for the next 2 visa bulletins?


I thought this was a potentially interesting post (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15995&p=66365#post66365) on Ron Gotcher's forum



It says the PD is March 05, 2007 EB2 India, but it must actually be March 05, 2008 EB2 India, if it only became Current in December 2011.

So, an applicant with a PD in March 2008, that is Consular Processed, may walk out of the Consulate on February 07, 2012, knowing their case is approved.

In contrast, an AOS applicant with the same PD probably won't know until April-May 2012, by which time there is always the possibility of retrogression.

It does show the advantages CP can have, if it's a possibility.

[nishant2200]

Yes, agreed. Ron Gotcher has pointed this benefit out earlier on his forum himself also.

One thing I don't understand is how this is possible to do CP. I mean I am working here, I have a life here, I am settled here, how can I go to India for CP, pretty sure it's not a one day thing. You have to get your documents, police clearance certificates, medicals in indian hospitals and so on. I have always been curious as to how a CP is practical for EB based petition. It may make sense in say EB4 or EB5 or EB3 nurses etc. Just a general thought to fellow forum members.


I thought this was a potentially interesting post (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15995&p=66365#post66365) on Ron Gotcher's forum



It says the PD is March 05, 2007 EB2 India, but it must actually be March 05, 2008 EB2 India, if it only became Current in December 2011.

So, an applicant with a PD in March 2008, that is Consular Processed, may walk out of the Consulate on February 07, 2012, knowing their case is approved.

In contrast, an AOS applicant with the same PD probably won't know until April-May 2012, by which time there is always the possibility of retrogression.

It does show the advantages CP can have, if it's a possibility.

[rockybaba]

Hi everybody!

My case status is still showing "not found". I checked all the case number ranges and noticed that, for cases >= SRC1290067724 (TSC) , the status is up to date. However, from case SRC1290067725 and above, the online database has not been updated. For NSC, the LIN numbers are getting updated and cases show up after a week.

Anyone else with a case > SRC1290067724 able to view their case online?

Cheers

-Rocky

[Reader]

Hi everybody!

My case status is still showing "not found". I checked all the case number ranges and noticed that, for cases >= SRC1290067724 (TSC) , the status is up to date. However, from case SRC1290067725 and above, the online database has not been updated. For NSC, the LIN numbers are getting updated and cases show up after a week.

Anyone else with a case > SRC1290067724 able to view their case online?

Cheers

-Rocky

The last five digits of my case number is 68XXX and receipt date is 12/08 and it is still not found. I was thinking of calling the 800 number, but did not bother to do that since I have received my FP notice last week and decided to wait for another couple of weeks.

[Sandeep2011]

Congratulations Sandeep2011. This is really fast.
Did you notice any LUDs on our case before you got email confirmation?

I'm also eagerly waiting for my EAD approval, still show Initial Review.

Thanks & Enjoy!

Thanks. I received the email on same day when LUDs were updated.

[indiasunil]

Is it OK if you go before FP Date ? Do i need to inform to USCIS?



Congratulations Sandeep2011. This is really fast.
Did you notice any LUDs on our case before you got email confirmation?

I'm also eagerly waiting for my EAD approval, still show Initial Review.

Thanks & Enjoy!

[EB2Jun08]

Hi Guys, I have question on I-765 EAD Application. I applied for EAD earlier when I was in F1 and got for one year. Now my attorney sent me the drafts for I-765 application along with I-485 and AP. on my EAD application instead of mentioning as new EAD , he mentioned in the application as Renewal and attached my old F1 EAD. I just want to know if anyone has filed as a new EAD application even though they had EAD before during F1. Please let me know.

And also my I-485 amendment was approved last week through premium processing, earlier somebody mentioned that premium processing is not possible for I-140 amendments but that is not true. Mine and some of my friends I-140 Amendment was approved through PP.

[RRRRRR]

Hi Guys, I have question on I-765 EAD Application. I applied for EAD earlier when I was in F1 and got for one year. Now my attorney sent me the drafts for I-765 application along with I-485 and AP. on my EAD application instead of mentioning as new EAD , he mentioned in the application as Renewal and attached my old F1 EAD. I just want to know if anyone has filed as a new EAD application even though they had EAD before during F1. Please let me know.

And also my I-485 amendment was approved last week through premium processing, earlier somebody mentioned that premium processing is not possible for I-140 amendments but that is not true. Mine and some of my friends I-140 Amendment was approved through PP.

I believe you will get a new Alien number which will be different from the one mentioned on your old EAD. It is good to provide the old information in the forms. I guess you are ok.

On I140 amendment, do you know if your amendment was filed with the original labor (as this is the per-requisite)because my understanding is original labor is submitted only once and that happens once the first I140 is filed.

I guess the other option is once you filed the amended I140 and you receive the receipt number then you can switch to premium...Any ideas which scenario was followed for you.

[mechanical13]

USCIS indicated that they anticipate increased income this FY is an important point to consider.

Are there any Fee hikes in the works? If not, how are they planning to increase income? VISA fees don't go to the USCIS, they go the DoS, so it can't be that they are considering increase in B1/B2/ F1 applications.

My thoughts are that this may be an indication that they are going to increase fees, they anticipate the number of H1s/L1 to increase substantially (not going to happen for H1, and L1 is under a lot of scrutiny these days), or they anticipate moving the priority dates for the most retrogressed countries.

Any thoughts on this line of reasoning? Am I missing something?

[mechanical13]

Now there are ways to increase revenue without simply raising fees or application intake.

Automation: Issuing FP notices, lockboxes scanning packet and streamlining intake, moving to e filing for forms instead of all manual, and so on

You are correct that the USCIS comes under the DHS, and there may be multiple ways of increasing revenue.

I however do not believe that automation will increase revenue. Revenue is money coming IN the door, and automation will reduce money going OUT the door.

If I am not mistaken, the USCIS memo to congress indicated that they anticipate revenue to increase. USCIS is of course not a for-profit enterprise, so it can't be that they were indicating that they anticipate revenue to be the same, but they anticipate income to increase via automation.

Is my understanding mistaken?

[nishant2200]

I am not economics major, definitions aside, I was just an example that came to mind.

I do not believe that for USCIS to make money, they would ask DOS to move dates incorrectly, just my opinion.


You are correct that the USCIS comes under the DHS, and there may be multiple ways of increasing revenue.

I however do not believe that automation will increase revenue. Revenue is money coming IN the door, and automation will reduce money going OUT the door.

If I am not mistaken, the USCIS memo to congress indicated that they anticipate revenue to increase. USCIS is of course not a for-profit enterprise, so it can't be that they were indicating that they anticipate revenue to be the same, but they anticipate income to increase via automation.

Is my understanding mistaken?

[imdeng]

I am sure many of us have started the VB Stalking already. For the uninitiated, two of the more popular options are:

1. Mumbai Consulate's PD Page: http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
This gets updated on Thu night usually, well before the Fri morning release of VB in US. It has been on the dot last couple VBs - however, it once copy pasted wrong info too. Anyways - my money is on this coming first. People working late tonight - make sure your F5 key works :-)

2. VB's PDF Page: http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Feb2012.pdf
DoS follows a consistent naming convention for their PDF web files - so if some intern manages ti upload the PDF before time then the link above would be live before official issue of VB. It has happened before - could happen again.

3. Well, nothing beats the real deal - the actual VB: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

Do remember that since it is a short week, the VB might not come this Fri. However, I don't think DoS is taking into account the Jan first week data and like past couple times, the VB is already decided - so it might very well happen on Fri.

[28thJune2007]

Guys

Any one with PD in June/July 2007 getting GC ? My case was filed at Texas center. I already got EAD/AP and was curious to know for how long I need to wait before I get my GC.

Thanks in advance for your answers

[essenel]

pappu's post on **: "Dec 2009 is what we are proposing ( best case scenario) based on the new data of filings and approvals. Discussions have started so hope for the best. It might be tight for feb bulletin. But let us see. Hope for the best before dates stop progressing so rapidly."

I wonder what he means by that....

[vishnu]

Essenel - I looked on "" but couldn't see this post. What was the context / question?

[sdesh005]

Essenel - I looked on "" but couldn't see this post. What was the context / question?
Page 315, post #4713 on the predictions thread.

[vishnu]

Thanks much

[luckycub]

Essenel - I looked on "" but couldn't see this post. What was the context / question?

see this: http://****************.org/forum/forum5-all-other-green-card-issues/1944033-eb2-eb3-predictions-rather-calculations-ii-315.html

[vishnu]

ya - it was kinda bizarre...no idea what they were referring to. anyway, we will wait and see...

[devi_pd]

Does ** have a say in the VB? How can they "propose" what to do? I thought VB was entirely at the discretion of CO. I didn't even know there would be discussions around it. This is very strange.

[self.coach]

'Propose' seems the wrong word. Read 'Predict'.


Does ** have a say in the VB? How can they "propose" what to do? I thought VB was entirely at the discretion of CO. I didn't even know there would be discussions around it. This is very strange.

[reachme_s]

Gurus,

I'm not sure if this is the right thread! My priority date is Feb 2009 and hopefully I'll be eligible to file 485 this month.

Unfortunately, I've been arrested on Domestic violence(simple assault) in 2004 and so I've to answer 'yes' in the 485 document. So, I was wondering if someone can help me with the below:

- What are the supporting documents that I would need to send along with the 485 application? I have the court dismissal order and expungement order..
- I understand that my case will be transfered to the local office and I'll be called for an interview. Will the interview happen after the FP? Will I get the EAD first or will I called for the local office interview first?
- I know it's going to hectic, do you know how long does it usually takes to call for the interview?
- Has anyone got their GC with domestic violence arrest?

If anyone knows, can you please advise? Appreciate your help!

[asankaran]

That's correct. There might be some insider information and they try to put a spin around it.

'Propose' seems the wrong word. Read 'Predict'.

[immitime]

That's correct. There might be some insider information and they try to put a spin around it.

[T]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know. ” —Former United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld

But as per natures law Truth prevails finally. Whoever helped to manipulate and influence the system not by allowed means have to answer finally for the sufferings of others. so UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS for knowns;)!

[self.coach]

Wtf :)

[t]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know. ” —former united states secretary of defense donald rumsfeld

but as per natures law truth prevails finally. Whoever helped to manipulate and influence the system not by allowed means have to answer finally for the sufferings of others. So unknown unknowns for knowns;)!

[imdeng]

I posted this in the relevant thread. Lets keep ** and Pappu (TOWCD) discussion in that thread. Thanks.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?317-Lies-damn-lies-and-pappu-claims&p=17634#post17634

PS> On second thoughts - since he is talking about PD in the coming VB - I guess the main thread works too.

My opinion, its all BS from him. He does not have any "new data of filings and approvals", he did not have any "discussions" and he surely does not "propose" anything.



pappu's post on **: "Dec 2009 is what we are proposing ( best case scenario) based on the new data of filings and approvals. Discussions have started so hope for the best. It might be tight for feb bulletin. But let us see. Hope for the best before dates stop progressing so rapidly."

I wonder what he means by that....

[soni123]

Guys

Any one with PD in June/July 2007 getting GC ? My case was filed at Texas center. I already got EAD/AP and was curious to know for how long I need to wait before I get my GC.

Thanks in advance for your answers

My PD is June 25, 2007, still waiting for GC and my case was filed at VSC bur transfered to TSC in 2010.

[gkjppp]

sportsfan

insider news or wild guess?

based on NVC receipts.

[sathya4x4]

Hi , Im new to this forum. Where do i find Demand Data for EB2?
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
this page shows jan11 , india demand data is 150.. what does this means?

[gkjppp]

Hi everyone,

Happy new year to all.

Good luck to the first half of 2009 people - I don't want to be premature, but I think it is a given that the dates are going forward at least until June 2009 given the NVC receipt news.

Sportsfan33, whats your guestimate on March 15,2010 PD?. I know it is too early to ask. I feel current EB2 rollercoaster may stop at Jun 2009( This is approx and there will be definetely retro to somewhere between mar to jun 2008. per Spec, PD 15-Jun-2009 makes 50k inventory,if USCICS trend is to make demand to 0 and start building agin to 50k then it may take 2 years to move further( 25k per year including SOFAD + 2800 per annum). Do you think PD moves further during 2013 seaon Oct 2012 to Mar 2013? I think we may need Mar 2012 Demand Data for further analysis.

[nishant2200]

You need to consult an attorney. Domestic violence crime makes you an inadmissible alien potentially.

http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/usc_sec_08_00001227----000-.html

It mentions:
(E) Crimes of domestic violence, stalking, or violation of protection order, crimes against children and
(i) Domestic violence, stalking, and child abuse Any alien who at any time after admission is convicted of a crime of domestic violence, a crime of stalking, or a crime of child abuse, child neglect, or child abandonment is deportable. For purposes of this clause, the term “crime of domestic violence” means any crime of violence (as defined in section 16 of title 18) against a person committed by a current or former spouse of the person, by an individual with whom the person shares a child in common, by an individual who is cohabiting with or has cohabited with the person as a spouse, by an individual similarly situated to a spouse of the person under the domestic or family violence laws of the jurisdiction where the offense occurs, or by any other individual against a person who is protected from that individual’s acts under the domestic or family violence laws of the United States or any State, Indian tribal government, or unit of local government.


You can read more on:
http://www.justanswer.com/immigration-law/61gog-show-child-neglect-crime-moral-turpitude.html?L=T&al=1&utm_source=sys&utm_medium=email&utm_content=crev3_subc_viewresponsetext&utm_campaign=AnswerNotify&r=ems%7C2012-01-03%7C833




Gurus,

I'm not sure if this is the right thread! My priority date is Feb 2009 and hopefully I'll be eligible to file 485 this month.

Unfortunately, I've been arrested on Domestic violence(simple assault) in 2004 and so I've to answer 'yes' in the 485 document. So, I was wondering if someone can help me with the below:

- What are the supporting documents that I would need to send along with the 485 application? I have the court dismissal order and expungement order..
- I understand that my case will be transfered to the local office and I'll be called for an interview. Will the interview happen after the FP? Will I get the EAD first or will I called for the local office interview first?
- I know it's going to hectic, do you know how long does it usually takes to call for the interview?
- Has anyone got their GC with domestic violence arrest?

If anyone knows, can you please advise? Appreciate your help!

[tackle]

Hi , Im new to this forum. Where do i find Demand Data for EB2?
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
this page shows jan11 , india demand data is 150.. what does this means?

That document is 2 months old. Usually, they issue demand data before visa bulletin gets released. But last month, visa bulletin was released without the demand data. The numbers in the chart you linked to indicate the number of applicants that are pre-adjudicated and waiting for a Visa number to be available. Now, you may ask what pre-adjudicated means? It means that their applications have been processed, FBI name-check has been completed and they are found eligible for a GC. Once a visa number is available, the applicants that are pre-adjudicated will be issued GC (probably in the order of the priority dates). Once an application is submitted, under normal scenarios, it usually takes about 90 dates for the application to be pre-adjudicated and show up under "Demand".

[gkjppp]

I am real sorry buddy, but I am no where close to an expert in answering your question. However I will just recapture some progression in how came to this point to put things in perspective:

- At the beginning of the FY (or some time before that), Gurus had feared that November 2007 was the outlier for the GC and the dates were projected to be around March 2008 for FY 2012.
- With rapid movement through November and green card issuance, the GC outlier was pushed to Jan 2008 and dates were predicted to be around June 2008.
- Then came the Jan VB bomb that threw everyone off track. Gurus here have some interesting 2D tables that show the estimate GC outlier for a given DD and spillover level. CM on his blog did some similar analysis. At this point, Gurus think the GC issuance date is around March 2008.

No one predicted dates would cross 2009. Similarly, no one can predict if they cross 2010. Can it happen? Sure, it can. If I were you, I would keep my documents ready, but not spend too much time looking for VBs "just yet".

So from November 2007 to March 2008 is a *hugh* relief. It's not just 4 months, it's an estimated disappearing act of a projected demand of 10000 (assuming 2500 per month was peak demand as was estimated before). Everyone should be happy no matter what their PD is. Also, the numbers we are all citing are very rough guesses without the demand data.

So hold on and relax. The worst case, you should be current some time in 2013, which is no small feat. Look, in 2009, everyone was projecting a 6 to 7 year (or some pessimists were going as far as 9 years) wait time for EB2-IC past July 2007. That has all changed. Enjoy the bright days...yours will come soon.

Thanks for the analysis, sometime in 2013 is Ok for me, hoping for the same.though 2008 got huge perm numbers like 2010, it wiped in matter of 30 days<Dec'11 and Jan'12 Bulletins>. 2009 being light year, anything can happen.

[imdeng]

It has not been wiped - it has just been called to stand in the queue. When their turn actually comes at the counter is still anybody's guess. In any case 2013 is probably a good estimate for you to at least get an EAD.

Thanks for the analysis, sometime in 2013 is Ok for me, hoping for the same.though 2008 got huge perm numbers like 2010, it wiped in matter of 30 days<Dec'11 and Jan'12 Bulletins>. 2009 being light year, anything can happen.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friend’s looks like the upcoming VB could go either way; it is going to be based entirely on the agencies discretion.
Positives -
- Someone with a March 2008 PD got an actual appointment from the Mumbai consulate. Spec posted this news.
- NVC notices being received by mid to late 2009 PD’s. Suninphx posted this news.
- General news and rumors that dates will advance in Feb & Mar bulletins.
- HR 3012 passage likelihood or 2 year inventory theory.

2009 is the leanest of all years so anything is possible.
Negatives –
- Actual SOFAD maybe lower this year and may really range between 20 and 25K. Out of that a minimum of 10K has been used.
- Approvals for Oct filers have dried down, there were a couple of approvals for NSC filers. TSC no one seems to have been approved a few people reported misleading statuses.
- EB1, EB2 ROW and EB3 and older EB2 I/C approvals are coming by steadily these cases have sufficient numbers or may have had a cap number allocated earlier. This may be indicative of the fact that EB2 I/C have had a run further than the Nett generated SOFAD so far.
- Already 40K numbers are in this includes 30K intake and 10K usage at minimum.
Let’s wait for the VB, all the best to everyone, I sincerely hope that the dream run continues and more and more people get to file EAD / AP.

[imdeng]

Agree with your sentiment. Fee notices I think have only gone till mid-2009 not late-2009. I think the June-09 is the latest we have.


- NVC notices being received by mid to late 2009 PD’s. Suninphx posted this news.
-----
Let’s wait for the VB, all the best to everyone, I sincerely hope that the dream run continues and more and more people get to file EAD / AP.

[TeddyKoochu]

Everyone should make the best efforts to file as soon as their dates become current. Some people do have genuine reasons like they changed employers and have to file again, some not married or in other cases spouse stuck in home country for stamping. Unlike in 2007 everyone's labor is approved so there is really nothing to wait for, the entire class of PWMB's including me are those who missed Jul 2007 because our labor went to Atlanta that was taking 3 months. Also if you are close I would say don't change jobs for some time and don't travel, this will be a boat not to miss. Since the intake is going to be so large the next boat may not come next year, the PWMB’s have waited more than 4 years and no one would like to become the next generation PWMB. Hope once again that more and more people become current.

[EB2Jun08]

I believe you will get a new Alien number which will be different from the one mentioned on your old EAD. It is good to provide the old information in the forms. I guess you are ok.

On I140 amendment, do you know if your amendment was filed with the original labor (as this is the per-requisite)because my understanding is original labor is submitted only once and that happens once the first I140 is filed.

I guess the other option is once you filed the amended I140 and you receive the receipt number then you can switch to premium...Any ideas which scenario was followed for you.

RRRRR,
MY Amended 140 was upgraded to PP after 2 months of intital receipt. I looked at I-140 form before the filing and original labor and 140 receipt numbers were mentioned in the file.

[nathang]

Agree with your sentiment. Fee notices I think have only gone till mid-2009 not late-2009. I think the June-09 is the latest we have.

What is the PD in june 2009 that received the NVC notice? I thought 19 May 2009 was the latest?

[kd2008]

Teddy, Spec, correct me if I am wrong...

Typically/historically 5 to 7% of the EB2I post their cases on trackitt.

So based on 15 mar 2008 to 1 Jan 2009 movement of ~ 20,000 and Using OR of 1, we may see about 1000 to 1400 cases being posted on trackitt.

I checked the EB2I I-485 inventory as of Jan 2011 between PDs Jan 2007 to June 2007 and looked up the number of trackitt cases with those PDs to come at 5 to 7% number.

I guess this may be a weak indicator but at least some sort of indicator until we get to see the Jan 2012 I-485 inventory in coming weeks.

[Kanmani]

Kd, Yes you are correct , I arrived with 6 %.
asper Spec's data collected from trackitt
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases ( extrapolated Total 3966)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases (Total 3183)

But we cant get china numbers via this route. Lets wait for big T and S

[suninphx]

Agree with your sentiment. Fee notices I think have only gone till mid-2009 not late-2009. I think the June-09 is the latest we have.
You are right- the case which I posted was May 2009.

But have not seen any co-relation between NVC date and movement being done only to that date. Last year latest NVC we heard was Jun/jul 2008 and we have already crossed that.

[waiting]

2 year inventory could take pd upto march 2010 correct?

[march272010]

this scares S*** out of me :)

==================================

2 year inventory could take pd upto march 2010 correct?

[Nandivada]

Guys
Pardon my ignorance... but what is NVC date? My PD is Nov 10, 2009 and EB2/I. I have moved from where I was when I had applied for Labor/I-140. Will this cause any issues or will the notice/letter go to my employer/attorney?

[Spectator]

Teddy, Spec, correct me if I am wrong...

Typically/historically 5 to 7% of the EB2I post their cases on trackitt.

So based on 15 mar 2008 to 1 Jan 2009 movement of ~ 20,000 and Using OR of 1, we may see about 1000 to 1400 cases being posted on trackitt.

I checked the EB2I I-485 inventory as of Jan 2011 between PDs Jan 2007 to June 2007 and looked up the number of trackitt cases with those PDs to come at 5 to 7% number.

I guess this may be a weak indicator but at least some sort of indicator until we get to see the Jan 2012 I-485 inventory in coming weeks.


Kd, Yes you are correct , I arrived with 6 %.
asper Spec's data collected from trackitt
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases ( extrapolated Total 3966)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases (Total 3183)

But we cant get china numbers via this route. Lets wait for big T and SI think this brings up an important point.

Historically, for Primary cases to Actual Approvals, the % for EB2-I has been :

FY2009 - 7.63%
FY2010 - 6.72%
FY2011 - 5.38% (educated guess)

At least for FY2009 and FY2010 the backlog was fairly steady and well established.

Within FY2011 the % for individual months appeared to vary wildly (from 2% to over 10%). Towards the end of FY2011 it was about 4.5%.

What we have no idea of is the new % of Trackitt people adding their cases and the constancy between months.

For that reason I have reported Trackitt numbers and not tried to assign real numbers to them.

If I used my estimate for FY2011 with the new applications, I would get :

October VB - 100 cases = 1,860
November VB - 240 cases = 4,464

Only October looks to be complete as of yet and later months seem too incomplete to speculate, as new applications are being added every day.

For an OR=0.8 I would expect figures of 1,627 & 4,979 respectively.

The problem is the Trackitt % now (post backlog) may be quite different to the historical past. A new flood of enthusiasm may have led to a greater % of cases being added (in which case the actual figures would be lower), or Trackitt may be less relevant now and the % has declined. As previously mentioned, the % may vary greatly between individual months.

The overall average can only be determined a year from now, when DOS publish the FY2012 figures.

The upcoming USCIS Inventory may help somewhat to calibrate, but, in truth, it won't contain enough data and comes a bit early.

My 2c anyway.

[qesehmk]

reachme, karma can kick our ass in unexpected ways. i feel sorry for your situation.

i think all is not lost for you. being arrested is not same as being convicted of felony. I am not a lawyer but i think it all depends on what charges were pressed against you and if there was a court sentence etc.


Gurus,

I'm not sure if this is the right thread! My priority date is Feb 2009 and hopefully I'll be eligible to file 485 this month.

Unfortunately, I've been arrested on Domestic violence(simple assault) in 2004 and so I've to answer 'yes' in the 485 document. So, I was wondering if someone can help me with the below:

- What are the supporting documents that I would need to send along with the 485 application? I have the court dismissal order and expungement order..
- I understand that my case will be transfered to the local office and I'll be called for an interview. Will the interview happen after the FP? Will I get the EAD first or will I called for the local office interview first?
- I know it's going to hectic, do you know how long does it usually takes to call for the interview?
- Has anyone got their GC with domestic violence arrest?

If anyone knows, can you please advise? Appreciate your help!

[gkjppp]

It has not been wiped - it has just been called to stand in the queue. When their turn actually comes at the counter is still anybody's guess. In any case 2013 is probably a good estimate for you to at least get an EAD.

Thanks imdeng,I am just looking for Ap and eads not sure of others priorities. I can atleast visit my parents whenever I wish. Hope I will get my ap ead by 2013.

[reachme_s]

reachme, karma can kick our ass in unexpected ways. i feel sorry for your situation.

i think all is not lost for you. being arrested is not same as being convicted of felony. I am not a lawyer but i think it all depends on what charges were pressed against you and if there was a court sentence etc.

Thanks Nishant and Q for the info.
In the police report, it says Simple assault. I was arrested that night and finger printed and next day morning I was released. After that the case was dismissed and then I got it expunged.

[sakshi01_ngp]

Hello,

On the onset thank you very much.
I have benefited immensly from this forum.

I need some help with the question which I am sure you are guys are capable.
I am sorry for posting this question here as I am not sure where to post it, please redirect my post as appropriate.

I have a question:

My 485 will be pending for more than 180 days soon and I want to change jobs using AC21.

I want to change my job from "Quality Engineer" to "Desgin Engineer" within the same company. The jobs are different but both of them are in Engineering related to same products.


Can I do it without hampering my GC process?


Regards

[Kanmani]

sportsfan

There is a clarification on the dec 09 movement, it looks like it was a proposal and Dos would act asper their own discretion.

[Pundit Arjun]

sportsfan

There is a clarification on the dec 09 movement, it looks like it was a proposal and Dos would act asper their own discretion.

Kanmani, Which Proposal are you referring to ? Enlighten me, please :)

[TeddyKoochu]

Kd, Yes you are correct , I arrived with 6 %.
asper Spec's data collected from trackitt
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases ( extrapolated Total 3966)
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases (Total 3183)

But we cant get china numbers via this route. Lets wait for big T and S

Kanmani the approach is fine. Unfortunately the way Trackitt works is that people will put in their details at various stages a) Right after the VB b) As soon as they file c) Waiting for EAD / AP d) Waiting for GC e) on the day of approval. So it takes some time before all the entries come in so Trackitt is more reliable for approvals compare simply because the numbers are in by that time. Now Trackitt ratios keep changing as well with time this year looks like EB1C folks are tracking in really large numbers so every country + category can have a different ratio. Well since you are comparing Nov & Dec filers these things should be smoothened out. In all my Trackitt calculations I adjust the lower or higher numbers using some kind of factoring but in this situation it’s really hard so your approach of direct compare is fine. Let’s keep monitoring. For forward movement to continue in the right earnest we should start to see more actual approvals for Oct filers now since 3+ months have elapsed for the early filed cases, we have not seen real traction on this front. Also I hope they will publish the demand data this time and ideally it should give us some guidance.

[imdeng]

Considering that Mumbai Consulate update did not happen and the Demand Data is not out yet - and that this was a short week, I guess the chances of VB coming out today is kind of low.

Also - this means that unlike last couple months, we are not looking at a pre-determined VB. It is still evolving - and that I think is not the best news for PD movement. Anyways - wait and see.

[pdfeb09]

2 year inventory could take pd upto march 2010 correct?

I don't think so ... AFAIK .. from the discussions on this forums, 2 years worth of inventory is counted as "How many visas can CO allocate in 2 yrs to a particular category (EB2 ) considering the SOFAD". This number is then translated to how many people can get in and that decides the cut off date. So 2 years worth of Visas may not translate into 2 years worth of movement.

Also, you are counting 2yrs from the last VB cut off .. that is not how it works.. it is counted using the Demand Data which shows where the oldest of the priority dates, that has filed the I485 but has not received the green card yet, lie. We currently do not have the latest Demand Data and that is part of the confusion.

I think, according to all Gurus the 2 yrs buffer has already been taken in .. any movement now is solely at CO's discretion until the demand/inventory is worked through to a sufficiently low level... hope that helps.

Gurus, let me know if I have misunderstood the process.

Thanks.

[Kanmani]

Teddy thank you.

You and Spec are correct . I myself had little hesitation to update the trackitt profile some years back. I later realised upon I-140 approval , this updation would help others in the long run . So fellow trackitters please update your profile, if you really believe in give and take policy. It really works.


Kanmani the approach is fine. Unfortunately the way Trackitt works is that people will put in their details at various stages a) Right after the VB b) As soon as they file c) Waiting for EAD / AP d) Waiting for GC e) on the day of approval. So it takes some time before all the entries come in so Trackitt is more reliable for approvals compare simply because the numbers are in by that time. Now Trackitt ratios keep changing as well with time this year looks like EB1C folks are tracking in really large numbers so every country + category can have a different ratio. Well since you are comparing Nov & Dec filers these things should be smoothened out. In all my Trackitt calculations I adjust the lower or higher numbers using some kind of factoring but in this situation it’s really hard so your approach of direct compare is fine. Let’s keep monitoring. For forward movement to continue in the right earnest we should start to see more actual approvals for Oct filers now since 3+ months have elapsed for the early filed cases, we have not seen real traction on this front. Also I hope they will publish the demand data this time and ideally it should give us some guidance.

[gkjppp]

I don't think so ... AFAIK .. from the discussions on this forums, 2 years worth of inventory is counted as "How many visas can CO allocate in 2 yrs to a particular category (EB2 ) considering the SOFAD". This number is then translated to how many people can get in and that decides the cut off date. So 2 years worth of Visas may not translate into 2 years worth of movement.

Also, you are counting 2yrs from the last VB cut off .. that is not how it works.. it is counted using the Demand Data which shows where the oldest of the priority date lies that has filed the I485 but has not received the green card yet. We currently do not have the latest Demand Data and that is part of the confusion.

I think, according to all Gurus the 2 yrs buffer has already been taken in .. any movement now is solely at CO's discretion until the demand/inventory is worked through to a sufficiently low level... hope that helps.

Gurus, let me know if I have misunderstood the process.

Thanks.

2 Years inventory with SOFAD means possible 50k. 50k inventory not reached yet.per Spec's earlier posts by 15-Jun-2009 it reaches 50k.

[pdfeb09]

2 Years inventory with SOFAD means possible 50k. 50k inventory not reached yet.per Spec's earlier posts by 15-Jun-2009 it reaches 50k.
You are probably right.. I am not aware of the actual current numbers. I was just trying to explain the process as I understood it.

[suninphx]

You are probably right.. I am not aware of the actual current numbers. I was just trying to explain the process as I understood it.

Also to be noted that 50K is assumption based on previous years numbers. The actual number could be much different.

[suninphx]

I think this brings up an important point.

Historically, for Primary cases to Actual Approvals, the % for EB2-I has been :

FY2009 - 7.63%
FY2010 - 6.72%
FY2011 - 5.38% (educated guess)

At least for FY2009 and FY2010 the backlog was fairly steady and well established.

Within FY2011 the % for individual months appeared to vary wildly (from 2% to over 10%). Towards the end of FY2011 it was about 4.5%.

What we have no idea of is the new % of Trackitt people adding their cases and the constancy between months.

For that reason I have reported Trackitt numbers and not tried to assign real numbers to them.

If I used my estimate for FY2011 with the new applications, I would get :

October VB - 100 cases = 1,860
November VB - 240 cases = 4,464

Only October looks to be complete as of yet and later months seem too incomplete to speculate, as new applications are being added every day.

For an OR=0.8 I would expect figures of 1,627 & 4,979 respectively.

The problem is the Trackitt % now (post backlog) may be quite different to the historical past. A new flood of enthusiasm may have led to a greater % of cases being added (in which case the actual figures would be lower), or Trackitt may be less relevant now and the % has declined. As previously mentioned, the % may vary greatly between individual months.

The overall average can only be determined a year from now, when DOS publish the FY2012 figures.

The upcoming USCIS Inventory may help somewhat to calibrate, but, in truth, it won't contain enough data and comes a bit early.

My 2c anyway.

Spec/Teddy,

Thanks for detailed replies to Kanmani's original post..
For argument sake even if we think that there another 50% increase in trackitt % and overall filings the number Nov VB hovers around 7K. (much less than 10K we discussed here)?

[nishant2200]

Demand data is out

http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/ivstats/ivstats_4581.html



http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Demand is still very low in DD.

I feel big movement's chances are not at all harmed by this.

It has no row for demand prior to January 1, 2007, so 2006 is pretty much clear.

[Stemcell]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[devi_pd]

You guys are lightning fast wow..

We still don't have enough pre-adjucated applications for EB2IC which was expected. Next month's DD should give us a better picture.

[nishant2200]

One point, if the 485s which get adjudicated for EB2IC, keep getting satisfied by QSP, they will never appear in DD.


You guys are lightning fast wow..

We still don't have enough pre-adjucated applications for EB2IC which was expected. Next month's DD should give us a better picture.

[geevikram]

I still think that the numbers are ridiculous.

[nishant2200]

Guys, I think chances of VB getting released today are pretty high and almost 100% on Monday.

My money is on today, around 12 to 1 afternoon PST.

[Stemcell]

The low demand means that USCIS has not Pre-adjucated applications from August 2007 and beyond right ? If not the low numbers are not justified to me unless somebody clarifies.

[nishant2200]

But still it's a shocker!!

sure man, I mean, its good thing that DD keeps low, it means we are keeping on getting satisfied by QSP and/or they don't have enough ripe intake.

[gcq]

numbers are too good to be true. EB2 total demand 258, EB3 Total demand upto 2003 15,685.
Time to make EB2 current. right ? Maybe CO is trying to save EB3 ROW from the after effects of HR 3012.

[kd2008]

Could someone please explain what this dancing is all about? Demand data released in Nov 2011 for Dec. 2011 bulletin also had low demand and back then the dates moved 4.5 months. So why is everybody excited now?

The current demand data is a snapshot as of Jan 5, 2012. So essentially, there is a chance that they are approving 100 cases a day for EB2-I. So if CO extrapolates this with the expected pipeline then there is little chance of a large movement.

[nishant2200]

Could someone please explain what this dancing is all about? Demand data released in Nov 2011 for Dec. 2011 bulletin also had low demand and back then the dates moved 4.5 months. So why is everybody excited now?

The current demand data is a snapshot as of Jan 5, 2012. So essentially, there is a chance that they are approving 100 cases a day for EB2-I. So if CO extrapolates this with the expected pipeline then there is little chance of a large movement.

kd, as I said:

"I feel big movement's chances are not at all harmed by this."

[TeddyKoochu]

The demand data shows very low EB2 I/C documentarily qualified cases and it has been created yesterday which is just the third working day of the month. This increases positive sentiment & the likelihood of further movement in the bulletin. Good luck to everyone. On another note some cases will never figure in either the inventory or demand data as they are getting approved.

[TheTexan]

ThatIsAll,

No problem if it is in Marathi. You need to get an exact translation done and then get this translation certified.


Thanks,

[imdeng]

Chances of VB being released today did increase significantly with DD release.

Guys, I think chances of VB getting released today are pretty high and almost 100% on Monday.

[GhostWriter]

One question (silly one), what are the dates on the left column of each table in demand data, can't be priority dates.
EB2-I shows 40 cases between 2009 and 2010 and 7 cases between 2010 and 2012. Is this the I 485 filing date, but that would mean everyone except for the 7 cases who filed in last two years has been assigned a visa number.
Sorry just getting confused, its Friday :)



One point, if the 485s which get adjudicated for EB2IC, keep getting satisfied by QSP, they will never appear in DD.

[codesmith]

What's happening....?
Can some-one press the RED button :)
It's mind boggling!!
Gali gali mein shore hai CO hamara neta hai :))

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec/Teddy,

Thanks for detailed replies to Kanmani's original post..
For argument sake even if we think that there another 50% increase in trackitt % and overall filings the number Nov VB hovers around 7K. (much less than 10K we discussed here)?

Sun the overall consensus is that Oct filers will be 2K.
Nov filing represents movement from 15th Jul to 01 Nov which is 3.5 months.
I would assume most people post 15th Jul have a very high likelihood of being PWMB.
Let’s stick to our perm approximation of 2200 PM.
With OR of 1 it means 2200 * 3.5 * 1 = 7700
With OR of 0.8 it means 2200 * 3.5 * .8 = 6160.
With a OR of 1 Oct + Nov will get closer to 10K while with OR of 0.8 it will get closer to only 8K.

[kd2008]

Where is the demand from the November filers? None of them have received GCs yet, and it is just surprising that in the last 2 months, they could not even convert a couple of thousand cases into demand? Maybe I am misinterpreting something.

Yes, this is surprising indeed and those that get converted into demand, get approved immediately and won't show up in the demand data.

[pdfeb09]

One question (silly one), what are the dates on the left column of each table in demand data, can't be priority dates.
EB2-I shows 40 cases between 2009 and 2010 and 7 cases between 2010 and 2012. Is this the I 485 filing date, but that would mean everyone except for the 7 cases who filed in last two years has been assigned a visa number.
Sorry just getting confused, its Friday :)



AFAIK, it does refer to the Priority Dates .... .. USCIS has in the past acknowledged and fixed such glitches .... Anything that shows the dates that were never current needs to be ignored at this time... so the 40 cases between 2009 and 2010 and the 7 cases between 2010 and 2012 need to be ignored..

[GhostWriter]

Thanks. So its them not me.


AFAIK, it does refer to the Priority Dates .... .. USCIS has in the past acknowledged and fixed such glitches .... Anything that shows the dates that were never current needs to be ignored at this time... so the 40 cases between 2009 and 2010 and the 7 cases between 2010 and 2012 need to be ignored..

[bieber]

Why are some members saying demand data is not correct?

I think they have demand only from CP case at this point, for after-Oct filers, EAD/AP doesn't mean the case is preadjudicated and ready to be approved

Huge movement similar to last bulletin is most likely

[grnwtg]

I haven't read anywhere that anyone from Nov filers received GCs yet. Do we know of such cases? On the other hand, the USCIS is just taking its own sweet time, but it seems hard to believe. 2 months is a long time, and I was expecting to see a number in 4 digits at least.

This data has only pre-adjudicated and ready to approve applications only so mostly November filers( infact many october filers) might not be ready to approve yet, if that is what you are thinking about. And also from discussion in various forums, there is little possiblity that data provided by them is not correct.

[imdeng]

So this is the DD for Feb VB. I have a copy of the DD for Nov VB. I know for sure that there was no DD for Jan VB. Does anyone remember whether DD was issued for Dec VB? If yes, then does anyone has a copy?

[nishant2200]

So this is the DD for Feb VB. I have a copy of the DD for Nov VB. I know for sure that there was no DD for Jan VB. Does anyone remember whether DD was issued for Dec VB? If yes, then does anyone has a copy?

Veni maintains all records of DD in:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates

[imdeng]

EB3I seems to be losing people from the queue rapidly (comparatively speaking, compared to 2.8K/year pace). We would expect the DD to come down by about 250 per month. Now, lets compare the DD for Nov 2011 and Feb 2012 (3 months duration)
Year-----Difference
2003-----700
2004-----900
2005-----1200
2006-----1375
2007-----1600
2011----1700

DD going down by 1700 in 3 months is quite significant. Effect of porting and demand destruction perhaps. Whatever may be the reason, it is good to see that happening. Whatever makes a dent in the 50K+ EB3I inventory is good news from a long term perspective.